Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
536 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 (This evening through Friday) A look at water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low across the Desert Southwest yesterday now ejecting across the Southern Plains as a more open-wave trough. Conditions improve from northwest to southeast later tonight and into tomorrow morning as the trough axis moves to our east.
515 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 Aviation Section Updated Warmer temperatures advance across the area toward the northeast, leaving some colder temperatures lingering across portions of north central Montana.
554 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 Gusty northerly winds begin to decrease after sunset and begin to veer around to the southeast as high pressure builds in. Winds will increase again Friday afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens on the back side of the high pressure. Areas at higher elevation, especially along Buffalo ridge, may be able to tap into higher winds above the strong inversion, and could see gusts exceeding 30 mph briefly in the late afternoon/evening. Winds will slowly decrease over night as the high pressure moves off to the east. Lows will be in the single digits east of I-29, slightly warmer to the west.
722 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 (Through Tonight) A cold front is moving towards our area this evening, bringing showers and scattered thunderstorm potential through the night.
Skies are sunny west and north of I-44 and expect cloudiness to gradually decrease east and south of I-44 as our upper trough exits to the east. Tonight, a surface and upper low tracking across eastern Canada/Quebec will push a cold front down through the Southern Plains. Still expecting much of the dry frigid Canadian air mass behind the front to lag across the Central & Northern Plains and Midwestern Regions into Friday, although may get a sample of it tonight with a final round of widespread subfreezing (upper teens/20s) temperatures across our area. An upper ridge across the western U. starts building over the Southern Plains resulting in the start of a warming trend into the weekend although Friday afternoon should still be slightly cooler than average for early February. Did trend slightly warmer than NBM for Fridays MaxT using the CONSMOS.
High pressure will build across the intermountain West through the weekend, resulting in a warming trend and a return to above normal temperatures.
515 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 (This evening through Friday) Clearing from west to east is currently seen on satellite imagery as an upper trough departs the area. Weak northerly flow ahead of an upper ridge combined with clearing skies and calm surface winds will allow for colder low temperatures Friday morning, potentially falling below 20 on the Caprock. Sunny skies will continue Friday under the ridge and temperatures will likely rise slightly above guidance mean into the upper 50s as surface winds gradually increase out of the southwest.
58/rose Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Friday) A look at water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low across the Desert Southwest yesterday now ejecting across the Southern Plains as a more open-wave trough. Conditions improve from northwest to southeast later tonight and into tomorrow morning as the trough axis moves to our east.
A cold front is currently moving through the southern half of the forecast area. * Arctic cold front to pass through this evening. An Arctic cold front stretches from central Michigan back into northern Illinois and southwestward to near the Kansas City metro area this afternoon. While the low level flow orientation suggests that lake enhanced cloudiness will make its way into the northeastern third to half of the area, a significant lack of moisture suggests that any lake effect snowfall should dissipate prior to crossing into northeastern portions of central Indiana, and will maintain a dry forecast throughout the short term.
825 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 Wedge conditions will remain over the area, then a cold front moves into the area overnight.
821 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 Gusty winds continued along portions of the western foothills this evening as high pressure increased to the west.
1124 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 A sharp cold front will bring a quick shot of very cold air to our region tonight and Friday.
High pressure over central ND will move east over the RRV around 06z-09z and then be near a Baudette-Bemidji axis at 12z Fri. Heading into the afternoon, as the high pressure pushes out, the gradient will tighten and increase the southerly winds across the area.
238 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 2 AM temperatures have fallen to the negative single digits over Iowa, and the lower + single digits over Illinois/NE Missouri.
1034 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 Key Messages: 1) Dry conditions and warmer/above average temperatures are expected for southern Colorado tonight and tomorrow. A ridge of high pressure is expected to continue to slowly push eastward over the region. This ridge will keep synoptic descent in place, which is unfavorable for precipitation development. The previously mentioned ridge of high pressure is expected to continue to slowly push eastward during the day, with a weak short wave behind it. With that said though, the primary synoptic influence will remain the ridge of high pressure. As for temperatures, they are expected to be much warmer than previous days this week.
Despite a clear sky, temperatures will struggle to make it above freezing, except for far southeastern Missouri. The subsequent warm air advection will keep overnight temperatures slightly elevated, cooling only into the low to mid 20s.
1056 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 A cold front is currently moving into northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Temperatures behind the cold front fall pretty sharply from the 40s down into the 20s and teens. Gusty northerly flow behind the front will diminish on Friday and the wind will become light and variable by Friday afternoon as the axis of the cold high pressure moves across the Mid Mississippi Valley. The cold start to the morning along with the morning's northerly flow will keep highs below freezing for most locations in spite of a sunny sky and strong insolation (the exception will be far southeast Missouri).
930 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 Patchy freezing fog has developed across portions of southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas this evening, directly behind clearing line. Areas of clearing have moved into the northern portions of northeast OK with temperatures jumping into the low 40s. For southeast OK temperatures are still hovering right around freezing.
(Today) Patchy freezing fog ongoing across SE OK through west central AR has shown signs of improving as winds pick up with the frontal passage.
1124 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 A strong cold front will drop south through the region late tonight.
With relative humidity upwards of 60% between 1000-700mb, strong instability through the low to mid levels, winds upwards of 30 mph at the SFC and temperatures in the -20's at 850mb, snowfall will persist with decent snowfall totals. This will be due to the wind shift, loss of gradient over the lake and high pressure building over the midwest which will weaken instability. Current readings are ranging from the low single digits at Kalamazoo to -8 at Grand Rapids. Temperatures will remain cold behind the front, highs are expected to be in the low teens.
Mostly clear skies dominated the forecast area, and temperatures were running a few warmer than last night with continued moderation of the airmass and weakening inversions outside of the typical low lying areas. In fact, wouldn't be surprised for a couple spots in the southwest sections of Denver to hit 60F! But it will be considerably cooler not too far to the east considering the existing snowpack on the plains east of Denver. Upper level ridge will reside over the Central Rockies through tonight and Friday. Airmass underneath the ridge will be mild and dry. Airmass will be warmer Friday with the ridge axis passing across the state. Highs should be 6 to 12 degrees warmer than today for most areas.
Cold front will move across the region today preceded and accompanied by showers and a few thunderstorms. Breezy northerly winds will usher in a cooler drier airmass behind the boundary as high pressure builds in from the north.
1002 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 The warming trend continues across the area through the weekend as a ridge builds across the area. The Wind River and Green River Basins will continue to stay cooler as the inversion and light winds keep the colder air trapped in.
An upper level ridge axis will gradually pivot west to east across our region today.
Mid to high level clouds will move into the region from an incoming upper level low over the West Coast. Elevated east winds will persist in the Lower Snake River Plain tonight, while southwest winds in southeast Oregon will steadily increase during the day tomorrow.
307 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 * Wind chills this morning as low as 0 to -11 degrees In the wake of an Arctic cold front, temperatures will be well below normal today as highs will range from the upper teens to the mid 20s.
Warmer temperatures will continue to move into Central MT through the weekend.
315 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 A much cooler airmass will settle into the region today. The cold front has moved through the area with good CAA overspreading the area early this morning.
An upper trough is moving through the Quad State in the pre-dawn hours, bringing stronger northerly flow through the CWA. Temperatures will drop off quickly behind the trough as drier air is brought in, with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s for the early morning. Cold air advection and remaining ice cover should once again result in highs below most of the models, in the upper 20s for the Evansville Tri-State and most of Southern Illinois, and near freezing elsewhere. Low pressure in the Upper Midwest moves into Ontario with a cold front stretching to the Central Plains.
834 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 Warmer temperatures will continue to move into Central MT through the weekend.
The winds will quickly switch around to the south this morning along with downslope effects mixing the warmer air from western Kansas eastward towards central Kansas.
1046 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 Gusty northerly winds begin to decrease after sunset and begin to veer around to the southeast as high pressure builds in. Winds will increase again Friday afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens on the back side of the high pressure. Areas at higher elevation, especially along Buffalo ridge, may be able to tap into higher winds above the strong inversion, and could see gusts exceeding 30 mph briefly in the late afternoon/evening. Winds will slowly decrease over night as the high pressure moves off to the east. Lows will be in the single digits east of I-29, slightly warmer to the west.
Anderson (Issued 200 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023) Tonight through Friday night: Main concern will be frigid wind chills overnight in the wake of an arctic cold front. The ridge axis will be transient and be off to our east Friday night.
1022 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 (This evening through Friday) Clearing from west to east is currently seen on satellite imagery as an upper trough departs the area. Weak northerly flow ahead of an upper ridge combined with clearing skies and calm surface winds will allow for colder low temperatures Friday morning, potentially falling below 20 on the Caprock. Sunny skies will continue Friday under the ridge and temperatures will likely rise slightly above guidance mean into the upper 50s as surface winds gradually increase out of the southwest.
Discussion: A 500 mb trough shifts across the southeast through the night and into Friday as a cold front crosses the area, and northwest flow pulls cold air into East TN. Despite the expected sunshine, most areas will struggle to make it out of the 30s--slightly warmer spots in the southern valley likely only reaching the low 40s.
Temperatures are generally in the low 70s areawide and will continue falling into the mid and upper 60s overnight. A cold front is forecast to reach the Volusia waters Friday morning and work south through the day.
Upper level stratus is quickly engulfing the region on the lee side of an upper ridge axis and head of milder air aloft. Warm temps ahead of it plus westerly winds will help some many locations near or exceed the freezing mark Saturday, warmest most likely within ND.
425 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 Today and Tonight: Looking at the synoptic scale setup early this morning, a deep low pressure system is spinning over eastern Canada and the far Northeast U. A polar cold front associated with this system is diving into our region today while the southern stream system that brought our last few days' worth of rain and clouds is swept eastward. Upper-level ridging prevails over the western half of the CONUS, with northwest flow steering the core of the polar air mass through the Great Lakes region. Even with clearing skies and rising mid- level heights today, high temps will struggle to break out of the 40s except in the Pine Belt, and lows tonight will bottom out in the lower to mid 20s across the forecast area.
631 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 Cold front will move across the region today preceded and accompanied by showers and a few thunderstorms. Breezy northerly winds will usher in a cooler drier airmass behind the boundary as high pressure builds in from the north. This high will move out into the western Atlantic Ocean Saturday with the low level flow shifting to east northeast and a rather tight pressure gradient persisting continuing the rather breezy conditions.
At the same time, low to mid level clouds are streaming southward across the Northern Plains, and this has resulted in temperatures remaining a little warmer than previously forecasted. On the backside of the high, winds will transition to southeasterly over our area and increase during the day as the surface pressure gradient tightens and winds increase at the top of the mixed layer. To the east where warm air advection will be more delayed, highs will remain in the lower to mid teens. Although winds will taper downward somewhat, it will remain fairly breezy east of Interstate 29 - most pronounced through higher elevations (Buffalo Ridge) with an increasing low level jet.
An approaching trough of low pressure will bring increasing winds and cloud cover the area today.
and Saturday Early this morning - Northwest winds from arctic high pressure continue to funnel in a bitterly cold airmass into the region. Today - Synopsis: Arctic high pressure will drift southeast across the region. Then turning warmer on Saturday with highs into the 20s.
* Warmer but windy conditions develop tonight and continue Saturday.
645 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 An Arctic cold front will move through the region this morning, followed by cold high pressure that will build over the area through Saturday.
* Wind chills this morning as low as 0 to -11 degrees In the wake of an Arctic cold front, temperatures will be well below normal today as highs will range from the upper teens to the mid 20s. Lows tonight will again be in the teens, but luckily slightly higher than this mornings low get to, as the high pressure will have exited to the east by early Saturday morning, leaving behind a wind shift out of the south.
209 AM MST Fri Feb 3 2023 A warm front will move to the east across the forecast area today. The southwest half of the forecast area will be much warmer where some areas have bare ground and there will be west to southwest chinook winds to mix more of the warm air aloft to the surface. The airmass behind the cold front will be only slightly cooler and strong west winds on Saturday will bring good mixing which will bring warmer surface temperatures in the northeast.
Centered across the Rockies is an upper ridge, while a very deep trough is in place over the northeast US and southeast Canada. While this trough is bringing bitterly cold air to the northern tier of states (wind chills as low as -50 in northern Minnesota and -60 in Maine!), the arctic air mass is only clipping our area. The warmup will really take hold tomorrow as longwave ridging builds eastward across the Plains.
546 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 Today and Tonight: Looking at the synoptic scale setup early this morning, a deep low pressure system is spinning over eastern Canada and the far Northeast U. A polar cold front associated with this system is diving into our region today while the southern stream system that brought our last few days' worth of rain and clouds is swept eastward. Upper-level ridging prevails over the western half of the CONUS, with northwest flow steering the core of the polar air mass through the Great Lakes region. Even with clearing skies and rising mid- level heights today, high temps will struggle to break out of the 40s except in the Pine Belt, and lows tonight will bottom out in the lower to mid 20s across the forecast area.
335 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 With the onset of clouds and increasing southerly winds from the James valley westward, wind chill values have largely stayed warmer than advisory criteria the past several hours. Focus will then shift to the warm front crossing the region on Saturday and the very mild temps left in its wake.
(Today through Saturday) A 500mb trough sweeping across the East Coast will bring the attendant cold front currently draped across portions of Kentucky, northern Tennessee, and Arkansas through the forecast area later this morning. Breezy conditions will accompany the frontal passage where gusts could reach 20 to 25mph through the afternoon with higher gusts around 30+mph along the ridgeline of the north Georgia mountains. Cooler air will usher in behind the front, dropping overnight low temperatures ranging from the low twenties to the low thirties. As high pressure builds in along the spine of the Appalachians Saturday, the much drier airmass will settle in across the forecast area.
410 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 (Today through Saturday) A 500mb trough sweeping across the East Coast will bring the attendant cold front currently draped across portions of Kentucky, northern Tennessee, and Arkansas through the forecast area later this morning. Breezy conditions will accompany the frontal passage where gusts could reach 20 to 25mph through the afternoon with higher gusts around 30+mph along the ridgeline of the north Georgia mountains. Cooler air will usher in behind the front, dropping overnight low temperatures ranging from the low twenties to the low thirties. As high pressure builds in along the spine of the Appalachians Saturday, the much drier airmass will settle in across the forecast area.
431 AM MST Fri Feb 3 2023 The high mountain valleys will be waking up to a frigid morning, as clear skies allowed to efficient radiational cooling and cold air pooling. The upper level ridge will be directly overhead this afternoon, and the very healthy 5-8C of warming at 700mb combined with continued downslope flow will provide for another noticeable warmup east of the mountains. Across the high terrain and foothills, winds will begin to strengthen under increasing cross-barrier flow tonight, with gusts 40+ mph developing closer to sunrise. This may help erode the valley/snowpack inversion a bit more, though it should still be cooler in the South Platte valley.
634 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 A much cooler airmass will settle into the region today. The cold front has moved through the area with good CAA overspreading the area early this morning. As we get on the back side of the high on Saturday, increasing southerly flow will lead to a warming trend.
High pressure will gradually build into the area throughout today, pushing moisture out and keeping us a bit on the cool side. Current models show us starting with overcast skies early on, but quickly clearing out as the low pressure system pulls away from us and the high pressure moves in. Past Saturday morning the weekend is looking quiet as high pressure remains in control.
Sky conditions have become mostly clear with some low clouds and patchy freezing FG lingering across west-central portions of the state. Sfc ridging will remain north of the area today before shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday.
323 AM MST Fri Feb 3 2023 The high mountain valleys will be waking up to a frigid morning, as clear skies allowed to efficient radiational cooling and cold air pooling. The upper level ridge will be directly overhead this afternoon, and the very healthy 5-8C of warming at 700mb combined with continued downslope flow will provide for another noticeable warmup east of the mountains. Across the high terrain and foothills, winds will begin to strengthen under increasing cross-barrier flow tonight, with gusts 40+ mph developing closer to sunrise. This may help erode the valley/snowpack inversion a bit more, though it should still be cooler in the South Platte valley.
305 AM PST Fri Feb 3 2023 Dry conditions and warmer temperatures will continue across the region through this morning. A weak trough will move through the area later today and bring a slight chance of light rain to areas on the north side of Merced County.
Dry weather and a warming trend is then expected through the weekend under high pressure. The arctic front has moved south of the region, with the upper trough axis now crossing before it shifts to the northeast CONUS. Strong cold advection combined with trough support are creating isolated streams of lake effect snow showers stretching from far eastern OH through parts of western PA. Subsidence, dry air, and shifting 850mb wind with the exiting trough will work in unison to shift snow bands to the northeast while reducing their effectiveness through the day today. Additional Advisory coverage may be needed for this evening into early Saturday morning along the higher terrain SE of Pittsburgh when cold air temperature combines with remnant wind.
936 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 An Arctic cold front will move through the region this morning, followed by cold high pressure that will build over the area through Saturday.
There is an upstream ridge flattening wave coming through overnight but the chances of mixing out the inversions up North does not seem probable. Transitory ridging build back in behind this wave on Saturday as stronger and wetter system moves to the Pacific coastline.
Expect another day of below average temperatures under the influence of this ridge, with lows in the teens and twenties this morning and highs by this afternoon only making it into 40s across central and southern OK (where ice is still present). Some patchy fog, perhaps freezing fog at times, will be possible across far southeastern OK and portions of north TX early Saturday AM.
414 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 Key points: - Strong 1041mb Arctic high pressure centered over nrn MN will build quickly east into the Carolinas by Saturday afternoon. A modest cooling to around 5C is expected of a weak Pacific cold front Saturday. A developing warm front across swrn Nebraska has been the focus for localized dense fog overnight. This forecast is a few degrees cooler than the guidance blend.
(Today through Saturday) After near freezing temperatures for much of South Texas this morning, today will be a fairly pleasant change with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. High pressure will continue through tonight which will lead to temperatures near freezing once again. Currently, it does not appear that we will drop to below freezing for a prolonged period of time at any location, but wind chills could be in the mid 20s for late tonight and Saturday morning.
The apex of the ridge has moved over western Montana early this morning. The Advisory also covers the potential for a potentially disruptive wintry mix of snow, rain, and/or freezing rain below 4500 feet across the Flathead. Southwest Montana will have the lowest potential of seeing accumulating snow during this time, with less than an inch, at best.