Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Afternoon temperatures will be noticeably cooler beginning today, with most locations slightly below seasonal averages, but will slowly rebound over the weekend. Models remain in fairly good agreeance with the progression of the low, propagating southeasterly across Southwest Montana today and tomorrow. Afternoon temperatures fall noticeably cooler today through the remainder of the week in comparison to yesterday, with most locations slightly below seasonal averages.
1115 PM PDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Another round of light rain coming through today as a second cold front passes through the region. (This evening through Wednesday) Visible satellite shows overcast conditions returning across the North Bay with rainfall chances associated with the passage of a cold front tonight increasing throughout the entire Bay Area from 22Z through 06Z. Similar to last night, the highest precipitation amounts are expected along the North Bay coast but amounts will be significantly lower than last night, only amounting to less than two tenths of an inch. Daytime high temperatures tomorrow are relatively similar to today, remaining slightly below average, with highs in the low 70's inland and in the mid to upper 60's along the coast.
145 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 High pressure will cover the central Appalachians today and tonight.
The large upper level low over southern Ontario will continue to dominate the pattern today. That upper level low will continue its slow progression eastward. Any clearing will be short lived as a negatively tilted ridge will allow for mid level moisture to stream around an upper level low located over the intermountain west and feed a boundary that will position itself across the upper midwest and into the mid Atlantic.
-A ridge of high pressure will keep the weather across eastern Kentucky dry and warm over the next couple of days. We will, however, see an steady increase in cloud cover across the area through out the day today, as a warm front moves through area from southwest to northeast.
The track of the upper low, moving from central ID through WY to northwest NE, favors a prolonged period of deep ascent with upslope easterly flow over the region.
These storms are occurring along a very strong 850 mb theta-e gradient or warm front, where mucapes (850-700 mb layer) are up to 1000 j/kg based on the nam. There is very good model agreement that elevated convection will develop or move southeast along the 850 mb warm front. Once the 850 mb warm front passes northeast of southwest Indiana this afternoon, clearing skies are forecast. Temperatures will have a chance to rebound behind the warm front, but the clearing will be rather late in the day in the Pennyrile region of west KY. Therefore, forecast highs will be warmer in southeast MO, where sunshine will increase earlier in the day.
1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 (The rest of tonight) High clouds are progressively expanding northward in response to Pacific moisture moving into Oklahoma and Arkansas in advance of an upper level trough to the west. The clouds and increased low level moisture associated with the northward lifting front will keep overnight lows several degrees above last night's values, in the low to mid 60s most spots.
1107 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 The ridging seen over the area the past few days is now departing as a trough approaches from the west. Scattered showers will continue to increase in coverage this evening as heights fall further under the progressing trough. A cold front will sweep from west to east across the entire area through Wednesday morning. The low should become closed Wednesday evening as it passes over southern Wyoming.
Cooler temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the rest of the week. Breezy to gusty southwest winds remain over the higher terrain tonight, becoming stronger across the region on Wednesday. The storm's associated trough is already tightening the pressure gradient across our region. This will lead to an increase in southwest winds overnight for high elevation spots and locations downslope of the high terrain.
736 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 The persistent upper low to our north will start to drift to the east. A warm front will develop over the Midwest and Upper Ohio Valley.
Low pressure will pass across the northern Great Basin today, sending a cold front south through the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert today and tonight.
918 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 A warm front will lift north across the region tonight into Thursday morning, bringing a chance of showers.
A deep low pressure system is already in place at the start of the period, with precipitation advecting northwards before wrapping westwards in association with the warm conveyor and deformation zone.
Developing low-pressure in the Plains and a strengthening low-level jet will lead to southerly winds around 15 mph gusting to 25-30 mph at times Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
An approaching warm front may provide light rain in spots Wednesday night and Thursday.
No thunder is expected with this precipitation, however rain may be partly banded in nature early on along localized streams of mid level vorticity north of the warm front. Winds may become gusty across South-Central GA with increased pressure gradients along the warm front.
Shower activity decreases greatly on Thursday but some wrap-around showers will continue along the Continental Divide mainly in southwest Montana and the Glacier Region, as the low moves off to the east. Snow levels will remain above 6500 feet for this system, with minor wet snow accumulations possible in the highest terrain.
1009 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 High pressure will build over the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday.
The large upper level low over southern Ontario will continue to dominate the pattern today. That upper level low will continue its slow progression eastward. Any clearing will be short lived as a negatively tilted ridge will allow for mid level moisture to stream around an upper level low located over the intermountain west and feed a boundary that will position itself across the upper midwest and into the mid Atlantic. However highs should be in the 50s with lows in the low 30s along the US 10 corridor and in the 40s elsewhere.
A sharp rebound in tempertures will occur on Thursday with building high pressure and light offshore flow.
Conditions are beginning to clear in Northern California as the trough that brought light to moderate rainfall to the area continues to move southeastward. Conditions will remain relatively cool on Wednesday with highs expected to remain in the low to mid 70s in the Valley, and low 50s to mid 60s elsewhere. Towards the end of the week, conditions will continue to dry, and temperatures will rise and then fluctuate slightly as a ridge expands over NorCal, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s expected through the weekend. As the weekend begins, a weak cold front will push through the area, bringing a return of onshore flow and precipitation chances.
653 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Warmer temperatures and increasing rain chances arrive by late this afternoon into northwest Indiana and spreads east tonight. Look for a break in the precipitation and slightly warmer for most of the area on Thursday.
944 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Persistent vertically-stacked low pressure remains centered along the Ontario/Quebec border this morning. The decreased coverage is due to the combination of the expected loss of cyclonic flow and surface ridging building in from the northwest. Continued mixed signals by short/mid term model suite over the track of a deepening low pressure system approaching from the southwest.
We freshened up precipitation chances through this evening with this update, which slightly shifted the highest chances to the north, but otherwise did not lead to much change. Two deep, closed lows dominated the synoptic pattern this morning: one over southern Quebec, and another just off the coast of Washington. The Northern Plains were in between these two areas of troughing, with upper ridging cut off yesterday. At the surface, weak high pressure still extended south into eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota, while low pressure was beginning to develop in southern Montana. As the upper low to our west surges southeast through the day today, a surface cyclone will begin to develop on the lee side of the Rockies and move into the central CONUS. Highs will be slightly cooler today, from 50 to 60 degrees F.
Cooler temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the end of the week. A trough will continue to push down from the Pacific Northwest today, leading to tightened pressure gradients across northern Arizona. Winds will begin to decline west to east with the passage of the trough in the late afternoon/evening today. Following the passage of the cold front associated with the trough, cooler temperatures are expected, especially for our morning lows.
Otherwise, temperatures will be a little cooler than normal today given the thickening cloud cover and rainfall, and expect rain chances to end tonight as the trough weakens and shears out to the east. Meanwhile, a low pressure system moving east across the Central U. will bring a significant cold front southward.
644 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 A warm front will lift north across the region tonight into Thursday morning, bringing a chance of showers.
Afternoon highs should be stymied a little with the high cloud cover, but upper 70s are still likely with almost zonal flow over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
605 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 High pressure will cover the central Appalachians today and tonight.
623 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 (Today through Thursday Night ) An upper level ridge is over the Plains this morning with a large upper low over the Great Lakes region. The upper low will move off to the northeast today as the upper ridge moves through the Plains. Another upper low enters the Pacific Northwest today and will quickly move into the Plains Thursday. As this system moves east today, the high clouds will move east out of the state.
This low will drag a warm front north across the Florida Peninsula today and tonight, with atmospheric moisture expected to increase substantially, with PWAT values of around 2. 5 inches forecast along and south of the warm front. As the low pulls away Thursday, a lingering stationary frontal boundary will remain across the Nature Coast, keeping deep moisture in place.
Tonight, lows will also trend warmer, only dipping into the 60s for most locations, around 5F-8F above normal. As far as temperatures go, highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s will once again be the rule, though the hotter temperatures will shift to the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Stockton Plateau, with slightly cooler temperatures across Southeast New Mexico and western areas. The breezy to windy conditions will continue into early evening, ahead of a strong cold front set to arrive Thursday night.
628 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 (Today and tonight) A long wave trough will slowly move into the western CONUS today creating a pseudo omega blocking pattern over North America. A number of short waves will be rotating around this larger trough with one moving out of the central Rockies into the Central Plains this afternoon. Strong surface cyclogenesis and pressure troughing will develop in lee of the Rockies today. The strongest winds will be in the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle closest to the surface cyclone in eastern Colorado and surface pressure falls.
Temperatures are noticeably cooler this morning, and the next couple of days see the coldest temperatures for this week. Dry and quiet conditions after this system passes will allow for warmer temperatures over the weekend.
621 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) A mid/upper level trough axis is currently pushing across the Southern Plains this morning, with widespread, light showers ongoing across SE Texas. This should bring cooler conditions overnight, with lows progged in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Clearing skies and 850mb temperatures rising to 16-18C should bring warmer conditions with highs progged to be in the 80s. A deepening mid/upper level low over the Great Basin/Rockies should promote surface cyclogenesis across the Plains.
The best chances are mainly over the Escarpment due to orographic lift from the low level jet early Thursday morning. Mixing should allow skies to become partly cloudy on Thursday leading to a much warmer day.
941 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 The weather will start to deteriorate throughout the day today as a low pressure system starts to push through North Florida. This low will drag a warm front north across the Florida Peninsula today and tonight, with atmospheric moisture expected to increase substantially, with PWAT values of around 2. 5 inches forecast along and south of the warm front. As the low pulls away Thursday, a lingering stationary frontal boundary will remain across the Nature Coast, keeping deep moisture in place.
A warm front will continue to produce showers mostly south of northeast Mississippi through this evening.
* Warmer temps are expected tomorrow with the passage of a warm front overnight. Mainly upper level clouds are streaming in from the south as an upper level jet streak lifts northward ahead of a short wave trough. The warm front will lift northward before stalling across the lower Ohio Valley. This will initiate WAA into the area with Thursday afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 70s, about 8-10 degrees warmer than today. The upper level pattern will begin to amplify as the western trough digs eastward and a notable short wave ridge axis will develop across the Southeast.
-A ridge of high pressure will keep the weather across eastern Kentucky dry and warm over the next couple of days. We will, however, see an steady increase in cloud cover across the area through out the day today, as a warm front moves through area from southwest to northeast. Aloft, a duo of closed lows will be laid out across the CONUS; one across New England to Eastern Canada and a second over the High Plains of Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas. At the surface, lee-side cyclogenesis will allow for a low to take shape across the border of Kansas and Nebraska, where a warm front will draw north from the Tennessee Valley.
Overnight lows will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Dense cloud cover will persist across much of the CWA tomorrow, leading to cooler-than-normal highs in the mid-60s to lower 70s.
(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Mid/upper-level low is on track to develop over the High Plains and progress eastward over the Central Plains Thursday into Thursday evening. A surface cold front will push through the western and central part of OK during the daytime and into eastern OK by Thursday evening.
403 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 High pressure will keep the region dry through this evening. An approaching warm front will support light rain in spots late tonight and Thursday.
(This evening through Thursday evening) A mid/upper-level trough across the southwest U. A low-level thermal ridge (LLTR) will advance eastward with the veered low-level flow. The potential is not zero as it will be dependent on the cap and magnitude of the low-level moisture. As a cold front overtakes/intersects the dryline, there is a higher probability (compared to just the dryline) of convection Thursday evening/night--primarily across north central into central Oklahoma.
321 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 The high clouds that were in our skies today will move off to the east this evening as a disturbance over the northern Gulf moves away, leaving us with a mostly clear overnight period. A warm front traveling northward across the region tonight will keep lows from falling below 50 for most locations, so no frost concerns. With the warm front to our north on Thursday, southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be in the warm sector. Thursday night, a large stacked low pressure system will begin moving eastward across the Plains towards northern Indiana. This will result in the Ohio Valley remaining in the warm sector until the arrival of the system's cold front.
Water vapor imagery highlights a positively tilted long wave trough over the southern Plains and western Mexico, upstream of the mean layer ridge parked over the Western Caribbean. Southerly winds this morning average 10 knots or less, but these magnitudes should increase through the afternoon as the low steadily marches northeast across the Gulf. From synopsis, a low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico will slide east northeast across the Florida Panhandle, then into the western North Atlantic tonight and Thursday. As the low pressure system departs, high pressure will build northward into Florida.
(This evening through Thursday Night) Clouds to gradually diminish as a weak mid-level ridge builds from the west across the ArkLaTex overnight. This cooler airmass will allow for overnight lows to fall into the 50s tonight. Otherwise, afternoon highs on Thursday to climb into the mid 70s to lower 80s with the cooler temperatures across south Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma.
Breezy conditions with frequent stronger gusts will impact the Lower Colorado River Valley Thursday with the potential for areas of blowing dust. However overnight, a classic frontal surge aided by continued nocturnal pressure rises over Nevada and a cold density current funneling into the Lower Colorado River valley will support a push of gusty north winds in parts of the western CWA.
154 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 A warm front will lift north across the region late today into tonight, bringing a chance of showers.
1218 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 (Today through Thursday Night ) An upper level ridge is over the Plains this morning with a large upper low over the Great Lakes region. The upper low will move off to the northeast today as the upper ridge moves through the Plains. Another upper low enters the Pacific Northwest today and will quickly move into the Plains Thursday. As this system moves east today, the high clouds will move east out of the state.
This trend of progression will continue today, with cooler temperatures in the lower 50s underneath the cloud deck.
337 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 An upper level low will remain north of the Great Lakes through Thursday.
137 PM PDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Localized freezing temperatures will be a risk for valleys tonight and Thursday night, especially for northeast CA.
300 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 High pressure will build over the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday.
The rain chances and associated thick cloud cover will help hold temperatures cooler than normal across the southern two thirds of the CWA. Otherwise, temperatures will be a little cooler than normal today given the thickening cloud cover and rainfall, and expect rain chances to end tonight as the trough weakens and shears out to the east. Meanwhile, a low pressure system moving east across the Central U. will bring a significant cold front southward.
1159 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 A warm front will lift north across the region late today into tonight, bringing a chance of showers.
Low level moisture has increased substantially up through about 800 mb per OUN sounding over the past 24 hours, and dew points are expected to hold in the lower 60s for the most part.
Temperatures remaining seasonable to slightly cooler than normal.
103 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 High pressure will keep the region dry through this evening. An approaching warm front may provide for light rain in spots late tonight and Thursday.
At low level, light to moderate showers are moving across the area coastal waters and into the coast under the northeast winds being generated by the low pressure system located across the north central part of the Gulf of Mexico. The latest ASCAT Scattermeter passage (1630Z) captured the center of the low pressure well to the south of the Louisiana coast. This low is forecast to move to the northeast tonight into Thursday. As the low pressure system moves to the northeast this evening into Thursday morning, moderate to strong winds and seas up to 7 feet are forecast to affect the offshore Gulf waters this afternoon into the overnight.
1226 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Broad low pressure is forecast to gradually drift eastward across southern Canada and the northeastern US, reaching Canada's Maritime Provinces on Thursday night.
Gusty and cooler conditions across the area through Thursday. Main story of the short term forecast will be the gusty winds and cooler temperatures. Wind direction will gradually turn from the west to the north as a cold front pushes through the area. Other than the wind, the only other notable weather is going to be the cooler temperatures. In some of these areas, particularly ones sheltered from northern winds, overnight lows may approach freezing. The northern Owens Valley will get close to freezing as the latest NBM gives Bishop a ~35% chance of reaching 32 degrees. Colorado City is also expected to get close to freezing, with a 25% chance.
A cold front will bring more fall-like temperatures to the region starting around the late afternoon and early evening on Thursday.
Cooler temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the end of the week. Southwest winds have increased in intensity this morning across much of the high terrain in northern Arizona. Much drier air has also moved into the region from the northwest, according to current water vapor imagery, as a low pressure trough pushes through the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West today. A trough will continue to push down from the Pacific Northwest today, leading to tightened pressure gradients across northern Arizona. Winds will begin to decline west to east with the passage of the trough in the late afternoon/evening today. Following the passage of the cold front associated with the trough, cooler temperatures are expected, especially for our morning lows.
149 PM PDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Much cooler inland today with strong and gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts gradually diminishing through this afternoon. Warmer temperatures for the valleys on Thursday with weak Santa Ana winds.
H5 heights rise some 60 Meters during this time, helping achieve above normal temps with highs in the lower 80s tmrw and lows in the mid and upper 50s completing the short term portion of the forecast.
1101 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 High pressure will cover the central Appalachians today and tonight.
1251 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 (Today and tonight) A long wave trough will slowly move into the western CONUS today creating a pseudo omega blocking pattern over North America. A number of short waves will be rotating around this larger trough with one moving out of the central Rockies into the Central Plains this afternoon. Strong surface cyclogenesis and pressure troughing will develop in lee of the Rockies today. The strongest winds will be in the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle closest to the surface cyclone in eastern Colorado and surface pressure falls.
The main upper low was south of Seattle this morning and forecast to move ESE while weakening this afternoon and evening. By Thursday morning the low will be all the way to eastern WY. Showers will continue near the low in eastern Oregon this afternoon but fade as they get into western Idaho.
We will have a low pressure system pushing through Florida just north of our area. Overnight we will see the low pressure itself passing north of the area through the Panhandle and southern Georgia. After that the front that is associated with the low pressure system will stall over the area.
(This afternoon through Thursday) High based rain showers are slowly working their way northeastward into Central Alabama early this afternoon, and we should begin to see more of that rain reach the surface as we continue through the remainder of the day with the low approaching. Light showers will continue into the overnight hours as the low passes just south of the Florida Panhandle.