Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The mid-levels will consist of weak mid-level High pressure over FL Wednesday morning will dissipate into the afternoon. Then, weak troughing will develop over the Southeast U.
839 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 Cold front continues to make its way across the CWA, having recently passed ABR. High pressure will drop over the Northern Plains later tonight through Wednesday night, with dry and cooler conditions expected. Not much overall change in the extended with dry conditions as the upper trough migrates east with weak ridging upstream and northwest flow overhead.
With dew points in the lower to mid 70s, this activity will only gradually fade after sunset. Activity should fizzle out tonight as daytime heating is lost and high pressure attempts to build at the surface. Tonight will be mild, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s in the lowlands and upper 50s to low 60s along the mountains. High temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 80s in the lowlands and 70s to mid 80s along the mountains. Rather warm dewpoints should also help to drive apparent temperatures into the 90s across most of the lowlands Wednesday afternoon.
A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday, bringing better chances for showers and storms, including some severe storms. Wednesday will be hot and humid again, with highs close to 90 degrees, then cooler weather will arrive behind the front. Temperatures have some cooler pockets where the rain has occurred, but overall are on a trend to drop into the upper 60s overnight.
543 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023 The upper level trough continues to extend out of Canada to the west of the CWA as a cold front has made its way through northwest to southeast. Behind the front cooler temperatures below average for this time of year with sufficient enough CAA bringing with it low clouds with off and on light rain and/or drizzle throughout the afternoon and evening hours for most east of the Divide. West of the Divide should remain mainly dry with no thunderstorm activity expected at this time with the cooler, more stable air behind the aforementioned cold front. Wednesday will see a mainly stable day cooler than average for afternoon high temperatures. Nothing significant to note with these being very isolated in nature associated with the filling trough as it slowly pushes through the CWA.
Meanwhile, an increase in synoptic scale support is anticipated, with most guidance sources indicating the arrival of a weak short wave trough to the southern Appalachians by mid- afternoon. As of 205 PM Tuesday: Typical early July heat and humidity is expected with max temperatures within a few deg of normal, yielding middle or upper 90s for maximum heat indices across the lower Piedmont.
High pressure will build over Arizona, bringing hot, dry, and breezy conditions through the rest of the week.
Lingering sea breeze circulation at the coast for a little while longer should help keep the low levels a little more mixed.
622 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) No threat for natural fireworks this evening as an elongated upper ridge holds firm over the region. The center of this ridge will draw closer on Wednesday and advect slightly warmer thicknesses our way. Otherwise, a cold front currently near I-70 in eastern CO and western KS is likely to dive south overnight before stalling near I- 40 in the TX PH tomorrow morning.
and eventually widespread lows in the 40s across the Plains and 30s across inhabited portions of the higher elevations. One more day of cool temperatures through tomorrow morning as our upper level trough that has brought unsettled weather conditions departs to our east. Otherwise, a dry evening is in store across the rest of the CWA as a weak upper level ridge moves in for tonight through tomorrow night.
510 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023 Deep upper trough over central NOAM continues to move ESE, while bringing much cooler conds to the region the next couple days. Semi-blocked flow will support a slow exit of this feature as the western NOAM long wave ridge continues its slow migration east.
828 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023 A ridge of high pressure will build over the region for the middle of the week, allowing the temperatures to rise above normal.
636 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 A few scattered showers developing as a cold front drops through, not a lot of lightning so far and impacts are pretty minimal. Surface analysis indicates the leading edge of a cold front stretching from northwest Minnesota down through the northern plains into the Black Hills. With the approaching cold front supporting lift, the probability for isolated showers and thunderstorms will increase over the next several hours along this frontal boundary. Temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow with highs primarily in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Very hot, above normal daytime temperatures for early July will continue this week under high pressure aloft. High pressure will remain centered over southern Arizona through the end of the work week.
Highs will stay around seasonal averages as temperatures will peak in the low 90s areawide during the afternoon hours. /LCP/ Wednesday night through next Tuesday: Strong subtropical ridging centered to our south competing with cyclonic flow over the northeast CONUS will maintain seasonably strong west- northwest over the forecast area.
[Key Messages] 1) Mainly dry & hot 4th of July with an isolated shower or storm 2) Increasing clouds and a better chance of showers & storms Wednesday [Discussion] A broad area of high pressure covered the Ohio River Valley into the eastern portions of the Midwest early this afternoon.
Cooler air in northern and eastern Nevada following a recent cold front brings overnight lows down to the mid 40s to low 50s while usual warm spots in northern Nye and Humboldt counties see lows in the low 60s. Tomorrow sees relatively cooler highs with the 25th to 75th percentile values ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. With mostly clear skies, the forecast reflects the higher end of that range with warmest locations in northern Nye county reaching the mid to upper 90s.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms formed off of streamers along the Lower and Middle Keys in the late morning hours. Our area continues to be nestled between two nodes of mean layer anticyclones (via CIMSS mean-layer analyses) leaving us in a somewhat variable col region. The Atlantic anticyclone has started to inch west over Mainland Florida bringing its surface reflection along with it slowly veering winds and freshening them tomorrow night.
Archer Satellite imagery showed a broad upper trough over the area with northerly mid level flow over the high plains. The upper trough axis was moving into the Dakotas this afternoon taking most of the upper support for ascent with it.
With persistent +2 inch PWs across the region, lows will only fall near or slightly above normal in the low-mid 70s. Highs will stay around seasonal averages as temperatures will peak in the low 90s areawide during the afternoon hours. /LCP/ Wednesday night through next Tuesday: Strong subtropical ridging centered to our south competing with cyclonic flow over the northeast CONUS will maintain seasonably strong west- northwest over the forecast area.
348 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 After the current cluster of storms passes this morning, expect a break in the action today, with north to northeast winds in the wake of a cold front. Given the high dewpoints, afternoons will be on the "muggy" side.
The combination of northwesterly mid-level flow and a passing upper- level ridge will produce drier conditions on Thursday.
Cooler air will overspread much of the area with highs ranging from the upper 70s over central KS to the lower 90s along the OK state line.
202 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 The upper pattern is currently going through an evolution, and that evolving pattern looks to soon feature a southwest CONUS hot upper ridge, and mean trof over the eastern CONUS. On Thursday, return flow sets up over the High Plains, bringing LLM and instability back to that area.
1134 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023 A ridge of high pressure will build over the region for the middle of the week, allowing the temperatures to rise above normal.
- Noticeably cooler temperatures through the end of the work week.
By late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the consolidated boundary (outflow + cold front) across northern Oklahoma in an environment characterized by MLCAPE of ~2500 to 3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of ~25 to 30 knots. There is the potential a second MCS may also develop across the Texas panhandle in associated with the low-level jet. The MCS will convectively-reinforce the effective cold front southward with cooler weather (in a relative sense) in it's wake for most locations Thursday afternoon with highs in the 80s deg F. Confidence on convective coverage Thursday afternoon is low as it'll be highly dependent on the morning convection and the location of the effective cold front.
Happy 4th of July! Conditions will remain dry for the rest of the day as the result of a weak upper level ridge. With dewpoints in the low 70s, this will make for a hot and uncomfortably humid day. Heat indices will be between 90 to 95 degrees, so make sure to take plenty of breaks in the shade if outdoors and stay hydrated! Heat and humidity during the day on Wednesday will fuel convection in the afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches from the upper Midwest. Rain and storm chances linger into the morning and afternoon hours on Thursday as the cold front moves through the CWA during the day.
Hot and humid conditions are expected again today with ridging across the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. This pattern is expected to continue through the end of the week as the high pressure lingers across the area.
The first chance of convection looks to be near the far southwest Thursday night as convection comes off the higher terrain of the northern High Plains.
315 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 High pressure over the area will keep winds light and chance for measurable rainfall low.
High pressure will build over Arizona, bringing hot, dry, and breezy conditions through the rest of the week. A few locally breezy location may remain downwind of the terrain overnight, which should keep a few locations a bit warmer than the surrounding areas.
The activity this afternoon was due to a warm front making its ascent northerly and is now north of the CWA. The wet and humid conditions will continue through tomorrow with near normal temperatures ahead of a cold front. The aforementioned cold front is anticipated to approach the Mid-South Thursday morning with much drier air behind the front.
numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely through midnight as a weather system moves through the base of an approaching upper trough. as the base of the upper trough axis moves through, we'll be waiting for the next weather system to move through from Colorado during the late afternoon through overnight hours, mainly impacting those south of a line from Yuma to Hill City. High temperatures will be cooler behind the front and under considerable cloudiness with lower 60s to middle 70s currently forecast. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 70s with low temperatures in the 55 to 60 degree range.
1041 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023 Deep upper trough over central NOAM continues to move ESE, while bringing much cooler conds to the region the next couple days. Semi-blocked flow will support a slow exit of this feature as the western NOAM long wave ridge continues its slow migration east.
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 An upper trough will linger over the Mid-Atlantic through much of the week bringing daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. Lows generally in the low to mid 70s. This boundary should be the focal point for showers/tstms tomorrow afternoon/evening ahead of the upper trough. Warm and humid Wednesday afternoon with high temps in the low 90s inland with upper 80s along the immediate coast. The upper trough shifts toward the coast Thursday. However, there is still cyclonic NW flow on the back-side of the trough, and most guidance depicts some low-level convergence over the Piedmont into central NC.
Showers slowly move out of the eastern UP Wednesday night as the cold front tracks through, ending by sunrise. However, with cooler air working in behind the cold front, temperatures should only top out in the 60s to lower 70s during the afternoon - perhaps more into the mid 70s in the far southern UP.
1218 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) No threat for natural fireworks this evening as an elongated upper ridge holds firm over the region. The center of this ridge will draw closer on Wednesday and advect slightly warmer thicknesses our way. Otherwise, a cold front currently near I-70 in eastern CO and western KS is likely to dive south overnight before stalling near I- 40 in the TX PH tomorrow morning.
Redevelopment of strong to severe storms over the area ahead of a cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures in the mid 80s for the weekend. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe weather forecast for the entire SGF CWA today as a cold front will move through the area this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to initiate ahead of the cold front.
Thus, the upper trof will be the main player as far as expected coverage of storms while helping to enhance deep convection within multiple cells across the FA.
Ridging will generally remain in place across the area, especially over the northern Gulf of Mexico. There is just enough of a weakness across the lower plains and that along with surging moisture should combine to allow for elevated rain chances today and tomorrow. As mentioned, we should see much of the same on Thursday as the pattern generally remains unchanged with the exception of the ridging over the Gulf being pushed slightly southward allowing for additional coverage.
338 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 Upper level ridging builds over the area today and Thursday bringing mostly sunny, hot and humid weather to the area.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) The upper ridge is in place and will gradually expand east over the coming days.
Models suggest our PWATs wl remain greater than 2 inches today along with surface dew points in the low to mid 70s. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis still showed our CWA between a stout mid level ridge to our south and an upper level trough axis to our west. With continued high humidity along with temperatures climbing up into the lower 90s again before becoming rain cooled, peak heat index values will top out around 105F in the west and south.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ The stagnant upper trough axis that has lingered overhead offering daily rain chances will shift slightly southeastward today while weak subsidence begins to overspread parts of North Texas. Thursday's convective chances as a whole will be the highest out of the past few days simply due to the multitude of factors that could bring thunderstorms to the area. /Issued 221 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023/ /Thursday and Beyond/ An upper trough will slide across the Northern Plains as the upper ridge continues to grip the Desert Southwest.
Temperatures this afternoon will be warmer than yesterday but remain below average as the trough centered over central Canada continues to push eastward.
1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 Cold front continues to make its way across the CWA, having recently passed ABR. High pressure will drop over the Northern Plains later tonight through Wednesday night, with dry and cooler conditions expected. Not much overall change in the extended with dry conditions as the upper trough migrates east with weak ridging upstream and northwest flow overhead.
A northwesterly flow aloft transitions to a west-southwesterly flow by Thursday as a weak upper trough near the coast moves inland. Models are hinting at some instability which will be marginally supportive (less than 20 percent) of afternoon-evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the higher elevations.
A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday, bringing better chances for showers and storms, including some severe storms. Wednesday will be hot and humid again, with highs close to 90 degrees, then cooler weather will arrive behind the front. Temperatures have some cooler pockets where the rain has occurred, but overall are on a trend to drop into the upper 60s overnight. Nevertheless, precipitation looks to be likely given fairly widespread coverage developing from the Illinois River Valley eastward as the organizing feature (cold front) sweeps across the area by Thursday morning. Highs should reach close to 90 degrees again Wednesday afternoon, followed by cooler weather after Wednesday's cold front.
337 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 (Issued 337 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023) Today through Thursday: A cold front will move through southern Wisconsin today, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. and mid-level lapse rates are on the lower end as well. This activity should wind down by overnight, with dry weather then expected on Thursday as high pressure begins to build back into the area. Lingering clouds and cooler conditions behind the front will likely keep high temps from getting out of the 70s on Thursday.
Focus now turns to convection along a cold front currently across northern sections of Kansas.
The low temperatures for tonight are expected to still be in the range of upper 70s to low 80s.
The main concern in the short term will be the potential of thunderstorms from a cold front tomorrow evening. A large upper level trough will deepen as it moves into the upper mid west and will swing an associated cold front through Michigan tomorrow. There are some difference in the details showing up late in the period as to the timing and evolution of a trough/upper low.
Convective debris clouds and humidity will keep lows seasonable in the low to mid 70s. The upper ridge will continue to flatten out Wednesday which will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler, although near seasonal average with highs in the low 90s. Low temperatures near average in the low to mid 70s. This will lead to a forecast each day that will mostly favor climatology with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s each day through the extended.
318 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A weak trough both at the surface and aloft will remain overhead through Thursday while high pressure remains over the Atlantic.
and Thursday A cold front will move slowly across the region today, while fragmented jet energy moves through the southwest upper flow. There may be some across the Fox Valley and the Door Peninsula, where highs could reach the lower 80s. The showers or thunderstorms should exit Eastern Wisconsin during the late evening or early morning hours as the cold front moves into Lower Michigan. Lows should range from the upper 40s in far Northcentral Wisconsin to the lower 60s near the lake and bay.
In the meantime, the trough over the Upper Midwest will continue to slide east into the Great Lakes region dragging the associated cold front across the forecast area through tonight. At this time, highs will range from the mid 80s far north to the low to mid 90s along and south of I-70. The showers and storms will linger through tonight as the main cold front slides through. As for highs on Thursday, they will be much cooler due to the lingering precipitation, clouds and northerly flow moving in.
- Cooler, less humid airmass settles in into the weekend. Deeper shear hangs farther west into the cooler, drier air. * COOLER, LESS HUMID INTO WEEKEND: rain chances (20-40%) A much cooler, less humid airmass settles across the region today and looks to hold into the weekend.
129 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A ridge of high pressure will build over the region for the middle of the week, allowing the temperatures to rise above normal.
(Today through Thursday Night) During the short-term period we will be sitting on the western periphery of an area of high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge centered at the NM/TX border will begin to build back towards the eastern part of the state during the day Thursday. Temperatures should remain on the "cooler" side with cloud cover. Any areas that receive rainfall will of course experience some cooler temperatures. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s for Wednesday and Thursday.
With persistent +2 inch PWs across the region, lows will only fall near or slightly above normal in the low-mid 70s. Highs will stay around seasonal averages as temperatures will peak in the low 90s areawide during the afternoon hours.
A persistent, broad trough remains over the northern Rockies through the end of the week. This weekend a ridge builds over western Montana and then quickly moves just to the east of the Continental Divide. That would leave a trough axis over the west coast with southwest flow coming into central Idaho and western Montana. A broad trough remains across the region through the end of the week allowing near daily afternoon thunderstorms in northwest Montana.
Just before mid-day forcing increases ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance and the cold front. Based on the available data, if severe storms develop this afternoon the favored area would be east of the Mississippi along and ahead of the cold front. high confidence Dry and cooler than normal conditions will be seen as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected remain scattered and organized severe weather will remain on the low side. Overall, QPF amounts will be on the low side across much of the state. Overnight low temperatures are not expected to cool a whole lot with temps in the low to mid 70s.
High pressure and heat will be the weather story for the entire period. By this weekend, much of the lowlands will likely need a heat advisory with an excessive heat watch/warning not out of the question for El Paso. By Thursday, moisture manages to move in trapped by the ridge, which will allow for scattered mountain and isolated storms.
Otherwise muggy conditions prevailed overnight with lows so far into the low/mid 70s.
Models show a mid-lvl trough moving across the northern Plains that will push a cold front into the area Wednesday. An unstable airmass ahead of the front will bring a potential for severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening with the highest potential across the northern half to two-thirds of the area. These storms are expected to end Wednesday evening but models show storms that develop in the High Plains Wednesday afternoon could develop into an MCS that moves across portions of the fa overnight into Thursday morning. Hot temperatures and humid air ahead of the cold front could combine to create triple digit heat indices across portions of southern OK and north TX Wednesday.
241 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 Upper level ridging builds over the area today and Thursday bringing mostly sunny, hot and humid weather to the area.
H5 analysis tonight had high pressure extending from northern Mexico into western New Mexico. Another area of high pressure was located over Florida and the central Caribbean. Further north, a trough of low pressure was present over the lower Ohio Valley and extended south into Mississippi and Alabama. The main feature of note tonight was a broad trough of low pressure which extended from western portions of Hudson bay, south-southwest into the northern Rockies of the CONUS. H85 temps would favor slightly warmer readings, however am anticipating plenty of residual cloud cover which will hold back temps. Late Thursday, the latest NAM12 soln, develops a nice theta e ridge across the front ranges of Colorado and southeastern Wyoming. Within this theta e ridge, SB capes will reach 2000-3000 J/KG late Thursday afternoon.
A cold front will approach the area Wednesday night into Thursday, creating additional rounds of showers and storms, particularly across the eastern half of the CWA as frontal boundary coincides with peak heating.
Highs will only climb into the low to mid 70s today, but reach near-normal values on Thursday, likely reaching into the low 80s.