Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1005 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over IA with next upper low/trof digging along the CA coast. Short wave ridge will bring dry conditions for much of Tuesday with highs again in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
A deep upper level trough crossing the Desert Southwest and Great Basin will have little effect on our area, aside from snow showers along the Idaho-Nevada border and in the Magic Valley tonight and Tuesday.
(Today) At 06Z, the surface analysis depicted a cold front from southern IL through central AR into north TX. Thus far, high based showers have remained across middle TN and northwest AL, and were tied closely to the low level jet and moisture transport axis. The cold front will actually continue to weaken today and will likely not even reach the area. There may be a few breaks in the low to mid level clouds, but at least a mostly cloudy sky is expected.
Southwest Lower Michigan is a southeast to south mild/moist flow of air off to the east of the low which is resulting in widespread low clouds and fog. For the most part, observation stations over the north central cwa show temperatures abv freezing lessening the concern for freezing rain. Low pressure over Iowa will be slow to move northeast and really won't clear the cwa until Tuesday afternoon.
1027 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Short wave ridging will quickly move overhead tonight as the next short wave trough digs into the southwestern US. Despite the approaching trough, low level moisture return will be meager through the afternoon hours. Mid and upper level moisture will increase beginning this evening through tomorrow afternoon ahead of the short wave trough. The approach of the trough will allow a surface cyclone to develop in lee of the Rockies in southeastern Colorado in the afternoon.
During the overnight hours, clear skies, light winds, and cooler air have promoted radiational cooling. Temperatures will rebound slowly late this morning and through the afternoon, with daytime high temperatures in the low to mid 70s with mostly sunny skies. Over the following days, temperatures will become near-normal, with daytime high temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s and overnight temperatures near 70.
1206 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 A progressive cold front will bring a quick bout of rain through the morning hours before exiting later today.
Some patchy freezing drizzle is still possible in southeast North Dakota, therefore the Winter Weather Advisory was extended through the morning for this part of the state. Lingering weak cyclonic flow continues over eastern North Dakota this morning, as the upper low over Wisconsin has become closed off. Ample moisture in the lower levels remains, though with just weak synoptic forcing the precipitation types on Monday remained light snow or patchy freezing mist or drizzle. Forecast soundings in southeast North Dakota this morning show lingering lower level saturation below freezing but warmer than -10 C, with sporadic saturation in the DGZ aloft. This lends coinciding with earlier reports of both light snow and a light glaze developing on surfaces lends confidence in these wintry conditions continuing a bit longer in the southeast as the upper low gradually exits the region.
337 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 A very saturated near surface environment marking conditions early this morning, as the local area holds position within the immediate wake of a weak warm frontal passage and just downstream of an inbound occluded frontal boundary.
Surface observations and an assessment of cloud streamlines suggest high pressure is nestled between the northern Bahamas and South Florida, with Settlement Point at 1020 mb. The lower tropospheric flow sampled by the KMFL and KKEY RAOBs is chaotic, with a shallow layer of northeasterlies measured in Key West. High pressure centered just east of South Florida will continue moving eastward and elongate as it heads into the western North Atlantic tonight.
118 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 A progressive cold front will bring a quick bout of rain through the morning hours before exiting later today.
325 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 Discussion/Marine - Spotty Rain Continues Today, Switch to Snow Possible This Evening Temperatures still sit comfortably above freezing as of 3am with temps ranging from the 40s to the south and down into the mid 30s to the north. Meanwhile radar continues to show spotty showers and drizzle across the area, but given the mild temps the concern for freezing rain/drizzle is low at this time. While we may still cool a few degrees within the next few hours, wet bulb temps will hold above freezing, so the outlook for freezing precip for the rest of this morning looks minimal. This low pressure system will move northeast by this evening resulting in the upper flow shifting northwesterly.
1209 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 (Rest of today through Tuesday) One more cool day across South Florida as high pressure sits over the state today, before sliding off to the east tonight into Tuesday. Temps overnight will still be cool, however 5-10 degrees warmer than this morning, so no headlines will be needed. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 40s around the lake, to low and mid 50s across the east coast metro. With the high shifting off to the east, light southerly flow returns to the area for Tuesday.
It's another chilly morning across west central and southwest Florida, but a little warmer than the past few nights. Latest surface observations are reporting temperatures in the upper 30's to the upper 40's, which is about 4-6 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.
At the surface, light snow is still occurring this morning on the back side of a low pressure system currently tracking across Wisconsin. High pressure will settle in over the Northern Plains today and tonight, with dry and cooler conditions expected. A low pressure system will track across the Central Plains on Wednesday, with most of the models indicating the precipitation (snow) associated with it will reach as far north as the southern CWA. Highs on Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 20s. 10 or less is most likely, with the highest amounts in our far south to southeastern counties of Lyman, Codington, Hamlin, and Deuel.
- Lingering stratus/fog today - Far southern CWA on northern edge of potent winter storm to affect the central/southern plains Today/tonight, NV upper low moves into southeast CO. Synoptic forcing from upper low pokes into far southwest portions of the CWA tonight creating a shield of light snow coincident with inverted trough. Upper low moves through the southern plains into IA.
Significant snow accumulation resulting in hazardous travel conditions will continue to occur over the High Country above 5500 feet, with minor flooding possible in the lower elevations. The early morning snow level of 6000 to 7000 feet will lower to 4000 to 4500 feet by this afternoon as the cold core of the trough moves over the area.
720 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 It's another chilly morning across west central and southwest Florida, but a little warmer than the past few nights. Latest surface observations are reporting temperatures in the upper 30's to the upper 40's, which is about 4-6 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.
As the trough moves east of the area, we'll see the shower activity diminish later this morning. /EC/ By Wednesday afternoon, a low pressure system will bring the potential for severe weather across the ArkLaMiss region. With dewpoints between the low and middle 60s, this and diurnal heating will fuel instability across the region on Wednesday. Additionally, ahead of the trough axis, a strong pressure gradient will allow for the potential of strong gradient winds ahead of the line.
931 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 The warming trend will continue across the region today as high pressure remains in place over the western Atlantic. (Today through Wednesday) A gradual warming trend will materialize over South Florida, which is already apparent with current observed temperatures being about 7 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. This is primarily attributed to a short wave H500 ridge moving over the northern Gulf of Mexico and approaching South Florida, while simultaneously a weak high just north of the Bahamas becomes positioned such that winds become more onshore in nature. A negatively tilted low- level trough will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of Florida, which will allow near surface winds to become more south southwest in direction.
The latest satellite analysis depicts a weak mid- level low pressure system moving through North-central MT this morning. Snowfall amounts will be quite light, generally ranging from trace amounts to about a half inch on the higher end.
628 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 Aviation - Spotty Rain Continues Today, Switch to Snow Possible This Evening Temperatures still sit comfortably above freezing as of 3am with temps ranging from the 40s to the south and down into the mid 30s to the north. Meanwhile radar continues to show spotty showers and drizzle across the area, but given the mild temps the concern for freezing rain/drizzle is low at this time. While we may still cool a few degrees within the next few hours, wet bulb temps will hold above freezing, so the outlook for freezing precip for the rest of this morning looks minimal. This low pressure system will move northeast by this evening resulting in the upper flow shifting northwesterly.
A low pressure circulation passing northeastward over Great Falls has been wrapping a broad area of snow into western Montana and into portions of north-central Idaho. Decreasing coverage of snow showers is still expected during this afternoon and evening as brief high pressure begins to move into the region. High pressure over north-central Idaho and western Montana on Wednesday morning, along with increased low level moisture from the recent snow, points to the development of fog and low cloud cover.
Therefore, for this forecast, went ahead with patchy dense fog wording across areas already near saturation where dewpoint values are in the low to mid 60s, mainly along and south of I-30. An intensifying cyclone across the Central Plains will move northeast into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A dryline extending south from the low will intersect the previously mentioned east/west stalled frontal boundary across Oklahoma and Arkansas. This is due to southwesterly flow aloft that allows a series of disturbances to shift across the lower Great Plains.
(Today through Wednesday) A warm front is now sliding through the area and rain showers are developing and moving east. As the warm front clears by mid-afternoon Tuesday rain chances will drop, with most of the rain out of the southeast before sunset.
433 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 (Today) At 06Z, the surface analysis depicted a cold front from southern IL through central AR into north TX. Thus far, high based showers have remained across middle TN and northwest AL, and were tied closely to the low level jet and moisture transport axis. The cold front will actually continue to weaken today and will likely not even reach the area. There may be a few breaks in the low to mid level clouds, but at least a mostly cloudy sky is expected.
Temperatures will range from the low to mid-60s across northern Oklahoma to low-70s across the Red River Valley. Scattered showers are expected to increase in coverage across northern Oklahoma by the late evening as isentropic processes increase atop an advancing warm front.
628 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 (Today through Wednesday) A gradual warming trend will materialize over South Florida, which is already apparent with current observed temperatures being about 7 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. This is primarily attributed to a short wave H500 ridge moving over the northern Gulf of Mexico and approaching South Florida, while simultaneously a weak high just north of the Bahamas becomes positioned such that winds become more onshore in nature. A negatively tilted low- level trough will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of Florida, which will allow near surface winds to become more south southwest in direction.
548 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 (Today through Wednesday) A warm front is now sliding through the area and rain showers are developing and moving east. As the warm front clears by mid-afternoon Tuesday rain chances will drop, with most of the rain out of the southeast before sunset.
Afternoon temperatures will reach the lower 70s to the south of a weak surface boundary that will be draped across the area, with 60s to the north.
Otherwise, dry weather is expected today, but then a trough will deepen across the West Coast with rainfall returning on Wednesday. Into the end of the week clearing skies are expected as high pressure overspreads, with relief finally occurring. As we move into the early hours of Wednesday morning, clouds gradually increase once again as an upper level trough moves into NorCal. Despite the low QPF amounts overall, any additional rainfall on the wet soils across the area could aggravate flooding and mudslide concerns. SFO Bridge Approach.
Otherwise, dry weather with well above normal temperatures will occur today and tonight in advance of the Wednesday passage of a cold front.
Temperatures have been slowly falling behind the cold front that pushed through yesterday, with overnight lows ranging in the upper 30s to 40s observed so far. Afternoon highs should be able to reach the mid 50s to low 60s (with the higher end of that scale increasing south of I-44) before cloud cover begins to increase this evening ahead of the next storm system. As the low pushes east/northeast towards the area overnight, showers will begin to develop over eastern KS late tonight and spread east across the area on Wednesday.
919 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 Even though it was a little warmer this morning temperatures were still in the upper 30's and 40's to start the day. It's another chilly morning across west central and southwest Florida, but a little warmer than the past few nights. Latest surface observations are reporting temperatures in the upper 30's to the upper 40's, which is about 4-6 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.
Locations as far south as Russell-Lincoln counties *MAY* see a rain/freezing rain mix later tonight through Wednesday morning, especially if the colder RAP/ECMWF solutions verify, although the overall model consensus keeps surface wet bulb temperatures above freezing. Am favoring these warmer model solutions given the persistent easterly low-level flow and associated lack of low-level cold/dry advection. If the colder RAP/ECMWF solutions do end up verifying, we would need to consider a winter weather advisory for Russell-Lincoln counties for a rain/freezing rain mix.
Snow levels already falling back toward 7k ft early this morning as the cold frontal boundary associated with the second piece of the storm pushes through western Arizona.
Upper low will be slowly moving across northern Montana over the next few days keeping some low cloud and fog over the region. Behind the upper wave, stronger northwest winds in a moderate chinook pattern, should push out the low level moisture and cold air.
523 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 (Today and tonight) We're seeing increased southwesterly flow in the upper levels ahead of the next upper trough progged to move into the area tonight and tomorrow. The aforementioned upper trough will approach the area overnight with the upper low ejecting out of the Four Corners region and into the South Central plains.
Some patchy freezing drizzle is still possible in southeast North Dakota, therefore the Winter Weather Advisory was extended through the morning for this part of the state. Lingering weak cyclonic flow continues over eastern North Dakota this morning, as the upper low over Wisconsin has become closed off.
Locations as far south as Russell-Lincoln counties *MAY* see a rain/freezing rain mix later tonight through Wednesday morning, especially if the colder RAP/ECMWF solutions verify, although the overall model consensus keeps surface wet bulb temperatures above freezing. Am favoring these warmer model solutions given the persistent easterly low-level flow and associated lack of low-level cold/dry advection. If the colder RAP/ECMWF solutions too end up verifying, we would need to consider a winter weather advisory for Russell-Lincoln counties for a rain/freezing rain mix.
625 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 A progressive cold front will bring a quick bout of rain through the morning hours before exiting later today. In a progressive type pattern, a low pressure center will track to the north over the Great Lakes as jet ascent pushes into the Upper OH Valley. Strong warm air advection ahead of the surface front will assure surface temps will warm to well above freezing and freezing precip will not be a concern.
Key Messages: - Wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected along the Kansas/Nebraska border on Wednesday, creating hazardous travel.
446 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 Key Messages: - Wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected along the Kansas/Nebraska border on Wednesday, creating hazardous travel.
Another cold front will push in to the area by Wednesday evening bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms across the Mid South. Beyond Wednesday look for much cooler temperatures.
Wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph expected across the highest peaks of the east TN and southwest VA mountains through mid morning (above 4000 feet).
411 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 A progressive cold front will bring a quick bout of rain through the morning hours before exiting later today. In a progressive type pattern, a low pressure center will track to the north over the Great Lakes as jet ascent pushes into the Upper OH Valley. Strong warm air advection ahead of the surface front will assure surface temps will warm to well above freezing and freezing precip will not be a concern.
A cold front passing south-central Arizona today will cause conditions to gradually dry out as the morning progresses.
408 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2023 A cold front passing south-central Arizona today will cause conditions to gradually dry out as the morning progresses.
Wrapped up low pressure will transition east across N Lower MI through the day, ending up in eastern Ontario by the end of the period. Brief ridging will start to build in tonight, end any lingering precip, but keeping cloud cover in place to end the period. Band of rain/rain showers will develop ahead of the advancing warm front, mainly Wednesday night as strong SW flow and influx of PWATS 0.
842 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 An advancing cold front, south of the Great Lakes, will bring a new round of rain showers this afternoon.
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) As I alluded to, our second weather system of the week is due in here Wednesday as a closed upper low pushes out of the central Rockies and into the Plains. This system will be much more dynamic than tonight's system and while admittedly, models are showing a stronger push of dew points (low 60s) into the TN Valley ahead of the front than they were last night, instability is still on the low end.
Look for a nice albeit cool day on Tuesday, with a passing front quickly bringing a final shot of light precipitation on Wednesday before high pressure then overspreads and allows for a weekend of sunny skies and cool conditions. The current forecast calls for light winds and clear skies but cooler than average temperatures as highs peak in the mid 50's. On Wednesday a cold front moves across the region bringing us our final shot of precipitation, though these amounts are expected to be much lighter compared to the last several rounds.
Patchy freezing fog along with light snow remain possible today and the fog could linger into tonight, but widespread dense fog is not currently expected to return. Upper low will be slowly moving across northern Montana over the next few days keeping some low cloud and fog over the region. Behind the upper wave, stronger northwest winds in a moderate chinook pattern, should push out the low level moisture and cold air.
High temperatures Wednesday will be in the low 70s in the north to the upper 70s in the south.
High pressure has shifted east of the area, with low level winds increasing slightly out of the S/SW this afternoon, up to 5-10 mph. Highs will be around to a few degrees above normal in the low to mid 70s today, and lows tonight will not be as chilly, falling to the upper 40s to low 50s.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) An area of high pressure in the western Atlantic will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida for the rest of this afternoon and into Wednesday as well. With plenty of sunshine for the rest of the day combined with a south to southeasterly wind, high temperatures will rise into the upper 70s across the east coast and into the lower 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
Currently, dirty S/WV mid/upper level ridge over the Northern Plains early this afternoon, with low pressure over the Great Lakes and another S/WV trough/closed mid level low over north central Montana. A mid level cloud deck is making it hard to see any breaks in the low stratus, with one area of temporary clearing over my north central. The S/WV trough off to our west will very slowly move east tonight into Wednesday, still centered over northeast Montana by late Wed afternoon.
117 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over the Great Lakes with next upper low approaching the Four Corners. At the surface, ridge is over the central Dakotas with trof in our far western zones. It could become dense again, especially around the terrain of the Black Hills, but influx of mid/high level clouds and eventually precip from the approaching upper low may limit it's effect. Upper low will track from the Four Corners into easterly CO by Wednesday morning, to near the central KS/NE border by late afternoon.
Southwesterly flow continues overnight making for a warm overnight with lows only dropping down into the low to mid 50s.
238 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 Tonight through Wednesday night: Weak upper ridging will prevail over the area tonight and most of Wednesday, but a short wave will drive a cold front into the Delta region late in the day.
High pressure has shifted off into the Atlantic and will continue to drift away over the next few days.
Isolated light showers will continue to be possible in the southeast this afternoon, but the bulk of the precipitation is over, as the short wave has moved off to the east and weak upper ridging builds in. Expect warm temperatures today as highs climb into the low/mid 70s for most of the area. As the trough moves east of the area, we'll see the shower activity diminish later this morning. /EC/ By Wednesday afternoon, a low pressure system will bring the potential for severe weather across the ArkLaMiss region. With dewpoints between the low and middle 60s, this and diurnal heating will fuel instability across the region on Wednesday. Additionally, ahead of the trough axis, a strong pressure gradient will allow for the potential of strong gradient winds ahead of the line.
/12 (Now through Wednesday) A surface warm front will continue to lift north of the area today as a cold front approaches from the northwest. For the rest of the today, the highest rain chances will remain across northern zones with only isolated development to the south along the coast. Another trough ejects into the plains on Wednesday with upper flow becoming southwest across the area. An associated cold front will push east an approach the area by late in the day. Temperatures will be well above normal in this pattern with highs today in the low to mid 70s and mid and upper 70s on Wednesday.