Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently in the upper levels, an elongated trough is digging through the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley, which is forecast to rotate through the Eastern Seaboard through the rest of the weekend. At the surface, this trough will push a dry cold front into the Florida Peninsula by this afternoon and evening, bringing a shot of cooler and drier air into the forecast area for the second half of the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible south of the front, with the highest chances south of Interstate 4 this afternoon.
Warmer temperatures continue elsewhere across the area early this morning, especially across southeast Oklahoma where mid-clouds linger. In the wake of yesterday's cold front, temperatures will top out 5 to 10 degrees below normal today across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas under Sunny skies.
1052 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Conditions turn cooler this weekend, with high temperatures near 60 degrees and low temperatures near 40 degrees.
214 AM MDT Sat Oct 7 2023 Satellite imagery showed nearly cloud free skies under a large ridge of high pressure dominating over the western CONUS, while variable high cloudiness roamed over Canada tracking southward. Expect mostly clear skies through the weekend as high pressure prevails. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer as well with readings 35 to 45 common.
with the only exception being the highest elevations of Park Range and San Juan Mountains where just a few cumulus clouds exist. The ridge axis will begin to position itself overhead on Sunday, resulting in another dry, mostly sunny day as well as the warmest day of the period. The main headline for the new work week will be the next Pacific trough strengthening off the West Coast.
1056 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 A strong impulse will rotate through the base of the upper trough centered over the western Great Lakes.
219 AM MDT Sat Oct 7 2023 *** Glasgow radar remains down due to hardware upgrade and replacement until roughly October 16th *** MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large cold core trough dipping into the eastern of Canada and the CONUS. Across the western half a large amplitude ridge has set up with the axis running north through the Intermountain West. Northeast Montana currently sits on the warmer side of these two features with cold air at the surface expected to shallow and mix out today. Father west another trough is moving into the Gulf of Alaska and just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
(Today through Sunday) Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level low over the Great Lakes area with a much cooler, drier airmass filtering into Middle Tennessee. With this cooler, drier airmass in place, high temperatures today will only climb into the upper-50's across the Plateau to the low and mid-60's elsewhere. A few locations along the Plateau (particularly Cumberland County and the Crossville area) may even get to the freezing mark.
Back to the west where skies have cleared, temperatures have already fallen into the low to mid 30s. In light of that, think that there is still the potential for temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s over that area, so will keep current headlines as is. In the cold air advection regime, Sunday night will be a little cooler as lows fall into the mid 30s.
This will likely only allow temperatures to drop into the lower 40s in southern middle Tennessee and to the upper 40s/lower 50s further south. Strong cold air advection will continue during into the day today as a re-enforcing, dry cold front moves through the area. In those locations, highs will likely be cooler in the upper 50s to lower 60s given steep boundary layer lapse rates expected.
608 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 (Today through Sunday) Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level low over the Great Lakes area with a much cooler, drier airmass filtering into Middle Tennessee. With this cooler, drier airmass in place, high temperatures today will only climb into the upper-50's across the Plateau to the low and mid-60's elsewhere. A few locations along the Plateau (particularly Cumberland County and the Crossville area) may even get to the freezing mark.
Overnight temperatures in the higher terrain may approach freezing and could impact unprotected vegetation. A low pressure system is slowly moving across the Great Lakes this morning. The center of the low is currently located near Lake Huron based on surface observations. Cooler than average temperatures will prevail Saturday evening into Saturday night. A rain/snow mix may also develop in the higher terrain of eastern Tucker county early Sunday morning if ice nuclei forms in the clouds. With a warm ground expect no accumulation, but air temperatures are forecast to dip to freezing or just below, so in coordination with surrounding offices a Freeze Warning has been issued for eastern Tucker county, running from 4 AM Sunday morning until 10 AM.
(Rest of Today) The cold front that brought showers to the area yesterday has pushed all the way south near the Gulf Coast this morning. In its wake, a cooler and drier airmass has resulted in morning lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the Tennessee Valley. For the rest of the day, high pressure centered over the Plains will provide ample sunshine across the forecast area. Highs should only peak in the low to mid 60s.
621 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 (Today through Sunday) The deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF predict the upper level low/associated trough to develop/persist over the eastern CONUS during the period while an upper N-S ridge axis persists over the Rockies.
(Today through Sunday) Cooler and drier air is expected to build over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley over the course of the day and into tonight. This will keep the development of shower and thunderstorms being confined to the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Then on Sunday, highs are going to be in the range of upper 70s mostly west of I69-C and then in the lower 80s mostly east of I69-C. Turning to the Lower Texas Coast, high risk of rip currents are expected to carry through the short term period.
301 AM PDT Sat Oct 7 2023 A high pressure ridge along the West Coast will weaken and drift inland over the weekend.
Early morning forecast with regards to temperatures and frost potential across the plains looks to be on track, with many locations along and north of Highway 50 in the low to mid 30s. Lastly, the risk of any thunder will be low and/or isolated at best given the high likelihood for CAPE values to be at or under 250 j/kg.
620 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 (Today through Sunday) Cooler and drier air is expected to build over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley over the course of the day and into tonight. This will keep the development of shower and thunderstorms being confined to the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Then on Sunday, highs are going to be in the range of upper 70s mostly west of I69-C and then in the lower 80s mostly east of I69-C. Turning to the Lower Texas Coast, high risk of rip currents are expected to carry through the short term period.
Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery is showing another clear morning out there as an upper ridge remains the dominant force over the weather. A broad area of marine stratus over the eastern Pacific is working its way north into southern Oregon, a frequent occurrence following the passage of the thermal trough inland. Inland areas Cascades westwards, meanwhile, will see high temperatures very similar to yesterday's if a bit cooler. Conditions tomorrow (Sunday) will look similar to today's, with the marine layer lingering along the coast while clear skies continue inland, and temperatures a bit cooler overall. We'll see increasingly breezy S/SW winds over the ridges and areas east of Cascades and in N. Ridging moves eastwards late Sunday as a broad trough moves in from the Pacific.
Water vapor imagery highlights lower heights across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, with a flattened subtropical ridge over Mexico and the Western Caribbean. Surface observations place an early season cold front over northern Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.
A reinforcing shot of much cooler and drier air was advecting into the FA thanks to gusty N winds. With dry air firmly in place, this wl allow aftn temps on Sun to warm into the lower and mid 70s in many areas.
Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Sunday/ Cooler air continues to spill into North Texas tonight where temperatures are now in the low 60s along the Red River along with breezy north winds. This will continue for much of the night as high pressure builds southward into the Southern Plains. This will promote warming temperatures, and highs should climb back into the lower 80s, especially west of I-35.
940 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023 An upper level low pressure system will shift east across the region through the weekend. Elsewhere where the clouds will remain a bit stingier, temps will struggle to climb into the lower/mid 50s. The main mid level trough axis will shift off to our east tonight, leading to clearing skies this evening. However, additional mid level energy will drop down the back side of the trough late tonight and into the day on Sunday. Broad H5 trough remains focused across the eastern CONUS as we head into the beginning of the work week.
637 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 A strong ridge of high pressure will bring cool temperatures to the Mid-South this weekend.
Otherwise, little else left to note with a ridge of high pressure in control. After a quiet and cool Saturday night, Sunday will feature more of the same unseasonably warm weather with the ridge axis moving overhead. Aside from another low risk of a spotty afternoon shower or storm along the higher elevations of the Continental Divide, mostly sunny and dry weather will prevail for another day across eastern Utah and the Western Slope.
556 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 (Today through Sunday) A cold front continues to move southward this morning, and currently stretches from near Auburn to Troy. Behind the front, winds have increased from the north at 8-10kts, advecting drier and cooler air southward. Current temperatures range from the mid 50s northwest to near 70 in the far southeast, still south of the cold front. Cannot rule out upper 30s in the typically cooler spots across the far north.
557 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 (Today and tonight) As of 1AM, the cold front was moving through the Concho Valley and Heartland. Much cooler and drier air is already filtering in behind the front with dew points already dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s across Throckmorton and Haskell Counties.
(Today through Sunday) Cold front has moved through and the cooler drier air is filtering across the region.
605 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 Through tonight: Cooler, drier, and breezy conditions prevail in the wake of yesterday's front. Then, as that advection begins to tail off tonight, it will allow temps to fall to the lowest they've been since around the beginning of April by Sunday morning.
617 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 As of 130 AM Saturday morning, a deep, midlevel trough was positioned across the mid/upper MS valley with northerly flow across the forecast area. This high pressure center was contributing to clear skies, light winds, and temperatures in the 30s for most locations. Temperatures will rebound slowly throughout the day today with daytime highs returning to the low/mid-60s.
641 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 Key messages: 1) Cool and dry weather can be expected today and tonight due to high pressure over the Great Plains. This high will drift southeast into the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight. 2) Wind will turn to the west southwest on Sunday ahead of another weak low pressure system, causing temperatures to warm back near normal in the upper 60s to low 70s.
743 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 Satellite and web cams have shown areas of fog developing in portions of east central SD and along the Buffalo Ridge over the past hour or so. Back to the west where skies have cleared, temperatures have already fallen into the low to mid 30s. In light of that, think that there is still the potential for temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s over that area, so will keep current headlines as is. In the cold air advection regime, Sunday night will be a little cooler as lows fall into the mid 30s.
As the trof aloft works its way east over the Ohio Valley region, high pressure will work its way in at the sfc. We will be cooler and drier today behind the cold front that passed through yesterday. Highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s today.
Marine influence will begin to increase today with cooler conditions all around but especially for the coast.
640 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023 A large upper level low pressure system centered over Ontario will bring active weather through the weekend.
Key Messages: * Below freezing temperatures this morning. The trough that has led to our abnormally low temperatures will move east and out of our region through the day today bringing in a ridge behind it along with rising temperatures.
610 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) For those in the Permian Basin, did you notice some gusty winds late last night? This was the highly anticipated cold front moving through, with surface observations currently put this front nearing the Trans Pecos. In fact, highs should be 5-8 degrees below normal in the low 70s for nearly all with 80s along the Rio Grande.
- Dry today and tonight with Halloween-like cool temperatures As the broad upper trough moves east of the area this afternoon, sky cover will decrease save some fair weather diurnal cu. However, BUFKIT soundings suggest high and mid clouds will increase late tonight associated with a Manitoba wave on the back side of a developing eastern Great Lakes upper low, within the broad departed trough. within the southwestern quadrant of a large, cut-off upper-level trough. A second broad, negatively- tilted upstream upper trough entering the northwestern CONUS will likely create a brief omega-style flow pattern from the Dakotas into interior Canada. Forecast models are in, perhaps surprisingly decent, agreement on the upstream trough then undercutting the block to the central High Plains.
In addition, we can see the dry cold front to our north. That front will push into the Florida Peninsula by this afternoon and evening resulting in cooler temps starting tonight into mid week. 91 inches, which could result in isolated to scattered showers and a few storms possible ahead of the front, with the highest chances (30%) south of Interstate 4 this afternoon. A dry cold front will push southeast through the waters this afternoon and tonight, with winds turning to northerly and northeasterly and increasing to exercise caution levels behind the front. Winds will subside Sunday evening through the first half of the week as high pressure builds in from the north.
(Today through Sunday) The deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF predict the upper level low/associated trough to develop/persist over the eastern CONUS during the period while an upper N-S ridge axis persists over the Rockies.
We will even see low temperatures in the low 60s for tonight and Sunday night! P-ETSS guidance still indicates the potential for minor coastal flooding during times of high tide.
145 PM PDT Sat Oct 7 2023 A West Coast ridge will bring another hot day to the valleys and deserts Sunday, while a shallow marine layer will bring cooler weather and areas of dense morning fog to the coastal areas.
Make sure you heed to burn bans today! /LCP/ Through tonight: Cooler, drier, and breezy conditions prevail in the wake of yesterday's front. Then, as that advection begins to tail off tonight, it will allow temps to fall to the lowest they've been since around the beginning of April by Sunday morning.
/NEW/ /This Weekend/ A very pleasant October day is unfolding across the region as surface ridging prevails in the wake of yesterday's cold front.
1220 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) For those in the Permian Basin, did you notice some gusty winds late last night? This was the highly anticipated cold front moving through, with surface observations currently put this front nearing the Trans Pecos. In fact, highs should be 5-8 degrees below normal in the low 70s for nearly all with 80s along the Rio Grande.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large cold core trough dipping into the eastern of Canada and the CONUS. Across the western half a large amplitude ridge has set up with the axis running north through the Intermountain West. Northeast Montana currently sits on the warmer side of these two features with cold air at the surface expected to shallow and mix out today. Father west another trough is moving into the Gulf of Alaska and just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
1242 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 (Today through Sunday) Cooler and drier air is expected to build over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley over the course of the day and into tonight. This will keep the development of shower and thunderstorms being confined to the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Then on Sunday, highs are going to be in the range of upper 70s mostly west of I69-C and then in the lower 80s mostly east of I69-C. Turning to the Lower Texas Coast, high risk of rip currents are expected to carry through the short term period.
1141 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023 A large upper level low pressure system centered over Ontario will bring active weather through the weekend.
1139 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 (Rest of Today) The cold front that brought showers to the area yesterday has pushed all the way south near the Gulf Coast this morning. In its wake, a cooler and drier airmass has resulted in morning lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the Tennessee Valley. For the rest of the day, high pressure centered over the Plains will provide ample sunshine across the forecast area. Highs should only peak in the low to mid 60s.
(Tonight) By tonight, high pressure centered over the Plains will shift eastward and push a low sitting over the Great Lakes off to the northeast.
259 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 -Cooler temps tonight in northwest Minnesota, with warmer temperatures west of the Red River. Our best chances of seeing freezing temperatures overnight will be in northwestern Minnesota, where isolated spots could fall into the lower 30s. As a trough continues east across the Great Lakes, it will come to a stop right south of the Hudson Bay. Over our area, split jet stream flow will make for quasi-ridging in the upper levels to our south through mid-week, before another trough makes its way through near the end of the week.
*Increasing frost potential Sunday night, especially north of I-80 where lows are forecast to drop into the lower to middle 30s. This Evening and Tonight Steady NW winds will subside, becoming light and variable overnight as a ridge of high pressure slides overhead. As clouds begin to break up later Sunday night and light northerly flow advects drier air into the region, temperatures will drop quickly with forecast lows ranging from the low to mid 30s north of I-80 to upper 30s south.
242 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023 An upper level low pressure system brings cool temperatures and times of rain and cloudiness into the next work week.
AC3 A strong ridge of high pressure will bring cool temperatures to the Mid-South this weekend.
The upper level low will shift east Sunday and upper level heights will begin to rise.
Most models seem to keep the lowest temps above 40s degrees as only the extreme 5th percentile NBM only drops west central/sw Kansas counties (Tribune â Garden City) down to about 39 F.
A few locations along the Plateau (particularly Cumberland County / Crossville area) may even get to the freezing mark.
As the clouds spread eastwards, moisture in the lower level will increase. There is still some uncertainty in low temperatures across the north where the cold low level winds will be moving across the relative warmer waters of Lake Superior which would at least bring cloudiness into northern Wisconsin.
1210 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 (Today and tonight) As of 1AM, the cold front was moving through the Concho Valley and Heartland. Much cooler and drier air is already filtering in behind the front with dew points already dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s across Throckmorton and Haskell Counties.
Temperatures are currently in the low- to upper- 60s with some stronger wind gusts across a few locations. Discussion: An upper-level ridge will continue to move over the CWA today providing sunny skies through the weekend and to start the work week.
Lows tonight will be around 10 degrees below seasonable values and range from the lower 40s well inland to the lower 50s at the coast.
1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 Satellite and web cams have shown areas of fog developing in portions of east central SD and along the Buffalo Ridge over the past hour or so. Back to the west where skies have cleared, temperatures have already fallen into the low to mid 30s. In light of that, think that there is still the potential for temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s over that area, so will keep current headlines as is. In the cold air advection regime, Sunday night will be a little cooler as lows fall into the mid 30s.
Warmer on Sunday with highs climbing back into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area.
Presently, a west CONUS ridge is gradually trying to slide eastward resulting in WAA over the state. An associated warm frontal boundary off said low is presently analyzed north to south through central ND, and will continue to progress eastward across the forecast area through the day today. Trailing cold frontal boundary tonight should have little impact other than a wind shift and lows dropping back into the mid to upper 30s for most locations. Sunday will see slightly cooler highs with temperatures ranging from the low 50s in the north central to the low 60s, although a few locations in the southwest may reach the mid 60s.
The warm front should continue moving eastward this afternoon and through the overnight hours. 925 mb temps currently in the single digits and low teens, should warm overnight night, reaching the low teens to upper teen C before sunrise. Temperatures tonight may become steady, or slowly rise before sunrise, especially over the southwest CWA where warmer 925 mb temps will be felt.
An upper trough is exiting and becoming a large cut off low throughout the short term. Models show this low centering itself over the Hudson Bay as remnants from post-tropical storm Philippe gets absorbed into the upper system. Some light rain will be possible late Sunday, but confidence remains on the low end given the dry conditions in place.
The clouds tomorrow are expected to keep highs from getting beyond the low 50s most places. Decreasing clouds Sunday night and continued lighter winds should allow for temps dip into the low/mid 30s for most locations away from Lake Michigan.
As of 130 AM Saturday morning, a deep, midlevel trough was positioned across the mid/upper MS valley with northerly flow across the forecast area. This high pressure center was contributing to clear skies, light winds, and temperatures in the 30s for most locations. Temperatures will rebound slowly throughout the day today with daytime highs returning to the low/mid-60s.
1237 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 (Today through Sunday) Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level low over the Great Lakes area with a much cooler, drier airmass filtering into Middle Tennessee. With this cooler, drier airmass in place, high temperatures today will only climb into the upper-50's across the Plateau to the low and mid-60's elsewhere. A few locations along the Plateau (particularly Cumberland County and the Crossville area) may even get to the freezing mark.
A broken cloud line formed along the north side of the Lower Keys again this afternoon, but has struggled to mature due to substantial dry air above 700 mb.
Cooler temperatures today and tonight. The southwesterly flow will increase with strength Sunday as a low-pressure system approaches from the north, tightening the pressure gradient.