Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MVFR is expected to return to the immediate coast into the Coquille and only the lower Umpqua valleys after 04Z this evening, into Friday morning. Steep seas will develop south of Cape Blanco this afternoon as the thermal trough rebuilds nearer to shore.
Friday: An upper-level ridge continues to build across the southern Plains on Friday. Expect south/southwest winds to advect in a warmer and humid air mass as the region remains on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Highs on Friday climb into the lower to middle 90s, with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
The subtropical ridge that has been exerting itself across North and Central Texas will remain the dominant feature through the week.
The forecast remains largely unchanged day to day due to the stagnant sub-tropical ridge continuing to dominate over the region.
(Tonight through Friday night) Hot and rain-free conditions will continue through the short term period across all of Deep South Texas as the strong mid/upper level ridge dominates overhead. High temperatures will range from the low 90s along the immediate coast to near 110 degrees across the Rio Grande Valley Plains.
ANS Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the Mid- South today as a cold front drops south through the region.
(This evening through Friday) By late Thursday afternoon an upper level low positioned over Ontario, Canada will continue to dive into the Ohio River Valley. With another upper level low developing over Alberta/Saskatchewan tracking to the southeast. With our forecast area continuing to be fixated underneath a 591 dam upper level ridge. Uncertainty remains on the extent of coverage of thunderstorm development, with the best chance east of the I27/87 corridor, and most likely where an area of confluence lies associated with a theta-e ridge axis. Tonight temperatures will be mild once again as the center of the upper level high begins to track back west. Tomorrow evening, monsoonal moisture wrapping around the center of the high will allow for some thunderstorm development in southeastern New Mexico.
Additional activity is expected to develop along the southern end of the trough due to some weak convergence over northern portions of our forecast area after 06z Friday. Friday evening, focus shifts back to northwestern Missouri, as a cold front moves into the region.
(Tonight) Temperatures have warmed to the low to mid 80s through the TN Valley as cloud cover has broken up this afternoon.
The Northern Rockies will be sandwiched between a broad, negatively tilted ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin to the south, and a closed midlevel low pressure circulation over Alberta to the north. That's not that fast by upper level jet standards, but the lower atmosphere is unstable enough to allow some of those winds to mix down to the surface this afternoon. Expect westerly winds of about 20 mph across western Montana this afternoon, with some gusts to 30 mph over the higher terrain of the Continental Divide.
1211 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 (Today and tonight) A bit quieter (and ever so slightly cooler) today behind the cold front.
A weak ridge of high pressure is settling into the Mid Mississippi Valley this morning. While the focus of the low level jet will be farther north, deterministic guidance does show some weak low level moisture convergence ahead of the trough resulting in light QPF mainly across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois in our area.
Temperatures will peak a few degrees below normal today before starting a gradual warming trend as high pressure amplifies inland from the Pacific Coast.
as a plume of richer boundary-layer moisture is impinged upon by modest downsloping from the High Plains. Heat risk will be as high as it has been all summer tomorrow as the upper-level ridge amplifies and 500 mb heights approach 5940 meters across the entire area.
214 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023 A stray shower or storm is possible this afternoon as a cold front swings through. High temperatures crest at either side of 80 degrees today, but rise back into the low 80s for Friday. A weak cold front will continue to sag south into the area late this afternoon into this evening. This boundary stalls over the central CWA overnight, then begins to lift back north as a warm front later tonight into Friday as the low level flow backs southwesterly in response to a mid level impulse ejecting east into the Upper Midwest.
1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) Despite seasonally normal 500mb heights of around 592dam, 850mb temperatures remain in the lower 30C range sending highs across much of the area well above 100 degrees. This is largely due to a flat ridge axis that extends south of the CWA leaving much of the area in a dry and hot westerly mid and upper level flow.
Another night of above average lows expected with most in the 70s to low 80s and only the higher elevations dipping briefly into the 60s.
* An area of low pressure off the CA coast is drawing moisture northward, as evidenced by satellite and radar imagery between LA and Santa Barbara. This low will hang around the coastline for the next several days, with moisture advecting northward and increasing thunderstorm chances each day from south to north. Moisture is on the increase, but the low levels remain quite dry, so anticipate smaller storm cores and a risk of dry lightning strikes along with gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph.
This is likely to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to northwest and north central Arizona, with the highest coverage north of I-40.
253 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Current surface analysis places low over northern/eastern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan, with trough/frontal boundary stretching southeastward towards south central North Dakota.
Satellite imagery shows trof moving from southeast MT into the Dakotas with some high clouds and scattered flat cumulus developing over our region.
Still looking at rising heights on Friday as the upper ridge axis makes its closest pass to the area. Over the weekend, an upper ridge will amplify over the Great Basin while the other ridge settles into the southeast CONUS. So, the local area is stuck in the convergent area between a developing northwest flow downstream of the western ridge as well as a weaker southwest flow around the southern ridge.
At the surface, low pressure is over eastern SD, and winds are northwesterly around 10-20 kts.
(This evening through Friday Night) A strong mid-level ridge will continue to suppress any chance of precipitation for SE Texas, and will instead bring another day of triple digit temperatures and heat indices. Onshore flow in the low- levels will continue to draw in moisture, leading to increased dew points, and as a result, heat index values of 108-115F.
An upper level ridge extends from the Gulf of Mexico across southern Texas early this afternoon. The GFS has shown a possible indication of a weak embedded disturbance near the northern periphery of the ridge moving east across the northern part of our area this evening. Similar to yesterday with inverted V sounding profiles and downdraft CAPE values of 1600-1900 J/kg expected, the high-based storms will have the potential to produce localized strong, damaging winds.
717 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 (Tonight) Temperatures have warmed to the low to mid 80s through the TN Valley as cloud cover has broken up this afternoon.
627 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 (This evening through Friday) By late Thursday afternoon an upper level low positioned over Ontario, Canada will continue to dive into the Ohio River Valley. With another upper level low developing over Alberta/Saskatchewan tracking to the southeast. With our forecast area continuing to be fixated underneath a 591 dam upper level ridge. Uncertainty remains on the extent of coverage of thunderstorm development, with the best chance east of the I27/87 corridor, and most likely where an area of confluence lies associated with a theta-e ridge axis. Tonight temperatures will be mild once again as the center of the upper level high begins to track back west. Tomorrow evening, monsoonal moisture wrapping around the center of the high will allow for some thunderstorm development in southeastern New Mexico.
Moisture levels will be similar to today, but with less forcing from the low to the west.
Temperatures are still in the upper 50s along portions of the Mendocino Coast where clouds have been more persistent and water temperatures are running cooler. A cut-off upper low will linger off the central and S CA coast through the weekend.
658 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) Hot and rain-free conditions will continue through the short term period across all of Deep South Texas as the strong mid/upper level ridge dominates overhead. High temperatures will range from the low 90s along the immediate coast to near 110 degrees across the Rio Grande Valley Plains.
Building high pressure over the region will maintain increasingly warm and dry conditions this week.
(Rest of tonight) A flat subtropical ridge will remain centered across the northern Gulf of Mexico overnight, resulting in WNW flow of 20-30 knots across the TN Valley.
Current surface analysis places low over northern/eastern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan, with trough/frontal boundary stretching southeastward towards south central North Dakota.
The high dewpoint air, likely aided by evapotranspiration of recently rained on soil across the region, will overspread the region during the day. With no glaring reason for temps to stay cooler, such as clouds or convection, highs should climb into the mid to upper 90s over the region. The combination of higher temps and the high dewpoints in place should yield a slam dunk advisory day for heat across the region. Heat indices may touch 110 at times from the lower Ark River valley of west-central AR northwest to Tulsa and Bartlesville areas, but confidence in a sustained period of 110+ isn't high.
However, an upper ridge will be building in the eastern Pacific during that time.
The upper air patter will be fairly constant through the weekend with high pressure dominating west Texas to Florida and a closed low sitting just off the coast of California.
631 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 (This evening through Friday Night) A strong mid-level ridge will continue to suppress any chance of precipitation for SE Texas, and will instead bring another day of triple digit temperatures and heat indices. Onshore flow in the low- levels will continue to draw in moisture, leading to increased dew points, and as a result, heat index values of 108-115F.
Currently - The Keys remain near a surface through lower level pressure ridge that extends across South Florida. Short Term Update - The surface through lower level ridge will nudge slightly northward through the overnight period. A ridge across South Florida will shift slightly northward overnight.
901 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023 High pressure will build in for Friday. A cold front has mostly pushed through a majority of the forecast area this evening, leaving behind slightly elevated northwest winds.
734 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023 A stray shower or storm is possible this afternoon as a cold front swings through. High temperatures crest at either side of 80 degrees today, but rise back into the low 80s for Friday. A weak cold front will continue to sag south into the area late this afternoon into this evening. This boundary stalls over the central CWA overnight, then begins to lift back north as a warm front later tonight into Friday as the low level flow backs southwesterly in response to a mid level impulse ejecting east into the Upper Midwest.
The low-level ridge axis will creep north into south-central FL.
824 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023 (Through Friday) High pressure continues to dominate with WNW flow aloft.
230 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 A ridge of high pressure will build over the region today through the weekend.
An area of low pressure will approach the region from the west Saturday afternoon.
* Somewhat warmer Friday/Saturday and dry conditions.
A cold front was located in southern Tennessee at this hour with drier surface conditions north. Expect an uptick in the convective coverage as low level winds increase overnight with warm air advection in the low levels.
354 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 High pressure builds into the region today.
Highs today be in the lower 80s. A weak cold front will continue to sag south into the area late this afternoon into this evening. This boundary stalls over the central CWA overnight, then begins to lift back north as a warm front later tonight into Friday as the low level flow backs southwesterly in response to a mid level impulse ejecting east into the Upper Midwest. The primary upper level wave and associated frontal zone will track into the lower Great Lakes Friday night with a round of more organized convection possible. This could either occur along/south of US 24 near the cold front, or well southeast of the area near a composite outflow leftover from the possible Friday night convective system.
Key Messages: - Warmer weather today with highs back in the 90s and some seeing heat indices near 100 towards the KS border.
The best chance of precipitation is across the higher elevations and immediately adjacent plains. Saturday is expected to be nearly identical to Friday with the exception that temperatures may be a touch cooler, though still very hot.
443 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Fair weather is in store to close the work week as high pressure builds into the area.
The persistent high pressure ridge will continue to dominate our forecast, so we expect today's forecast to be generally the same as yesterday's and tomorrow's.
220 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Weak high pressure will build over the region today through the weekend.
Friday: An upper-level ridge continues to build across the southern Plains on Friday. Expect south/southwest winds to advect in a warmer and humid air mass as the region remains on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Highs on Friday climb into the lower to middle 90s, with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Another hot and humid day on Saturday afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 90s, and heat index values around 100 to 105 again.
Additional convection is possible this afternoon and evening as warm front lifts north. We will focus more on/north of the warm front and have highest PoPs across northern parts of Oklahoma. Speaking of the warm front, in the wake of the front, hotter temperatures will spread northward today.
1203 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 (Rest of tonight) A flat subtropical ridge will remain centered across the northern Gulf of Mexico overnight, resulting in WNW flow of 20-30 knots across the TN Valley.
Some changes for Friday as the westerly flow weakens a bit with some weak ridging moving into Western Colorado. The upper ridge will be over east Texas with a weak southerly flow aloft over CO.
(Friday through Saturday night) Dangerous heat potential continues as deep layer ridging remains over the region.
Broad upper level troughing to the north and upper level ridging extending through southwest Florida will keep a light onshore flow today. This will favor the highest rain and storm chances over the interior and east coast of Florida once again leaving the west coast hot and dry for the most part.
A trough moving southeast into the Mississippi Valley this evening will further drive the surface boundary/mid level baroclinic zone south across Kansas.
1219 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 (This evening through Saturday) To begin the period, high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern providing northwest flow to the area. Heat advisories have been issued for much of the CWA for Friday afternoon/evening with the exception of the higher elevations in the Ozarks.
Today and tomorrow will be warmer and more humid than it has been, with heat indices in the mid-to-upper 90s.
A souped up moisture profile coupled with modestly freshening mean flow should provide perhaps the highest rain and thunder chances for the next seven days during this period.
A robust and persistent midlevel ridge continues to remain in place over the South Central CONUS, showing little sign of breaking down for the time being.
341 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 A northwest flow prevails today, which will clear skies and bring cooler, but windier conditions to northern New England.
Weak high pressure overhead today will move east tonight into Friday. The upper level ridge over Texas tries to build northward towards our area this weekend. The highest readings are expected across the southwest part of the cwa.
Then near persistent high temperatures, perhaps a degree cooler in some spots Saturday.
Otherwise very hot conditions continue under upper ridging, with new or close to daily record high temperatures.
335 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 High pressure builds into the region today.
1153 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 (This evening through Friday Night) A strong mid-level ridge will continue to suppress any chance of precipitation for SE Texas, and will instead bring another day of triple digit temperatures and heat indices. Onshore flow in the low- levels will continue to draw in moisture, leading to increased dew points, and as a result, heat index values of 108-115F.
Additional activity is expected to develop along the southern end of the trough due to some weak convergence over northern portions of our forecast area after 06z Friday. Friday evening, focus shifts back to northwestern Missouri, as a cold front moves into the region. However, the cold front will stall out across southern portions of the forecast area, so could see additional activity develop over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois during the afternoon/evening hours.
250 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 A ridge of high pressure will build over the region today through the weekend.
1227 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) Hot and rain-free conditions will continue through the short term period across all of Deep South Texas as the strong mid/upper level ridge dominates overhead. High temperatures will range from the low 90s along the immediate coast to near 110 degrees across the Rio Grande Valley Plains.
(Tonight through Friday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous and Excessive Heat conditions continue - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions through early this morning and possible again Friday, mainly west of I-37 You guessed it, hot and rain-free conditions will continue through the short-term thanks to the stubborn quasi-stationary mid to upper ridge centered over East Texas.
927 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 A ridge of high pressure will build over the region today through the weekend.
There appears to be a lull in activity Saturday as stable air arrives behind a cold front and the more active storm track splits around our CWA.
By Saturday night a Canadian trough will punch down into the northern Great Plains. While the brunt of the energy and impacts look to remain to our east given the placement of the system, a cold front will sweep south into Wyoming overnight.
Any rainfall will be limited for the lower elevations mainly below about 5000 feet and the atmosphere should become more stable for the nighttime hours helping to limit any thunderstorm activity.
612 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Fair weather is in store to close the work week as high pressure builds into the area.
This feature is expected to continue through today and beyond, as high pressure dominates the western U. Ensembles are keeping the best supplies to the south of the I-70 corridor, where showers and thunderstorms will be the most productive today and tomorrow, especially on the high terrain. The stationary area of low pressure remains spinning just off the SoCal coast while the high pressure to the east will have shifted northward some.
Temperatures currently range from upper 50s over northwestern portions to the low 70s across southeastern portions.
Building high pressure over the region will lead to increasingly warm and dry conditions.
Otherwise, high pressure will be in place through the day today; keeping the region mostly sunny and dry. The northern trough is forecast to move into the northern Great Lakes with a cold front extending southward into the Commonwealth. The second system is forecast to track into the Tennessee Valley and ride along the cold front. Nonetheless, the SPC has most of the forecast area in a marginal for severe weather for the potential for a severe storm or two with the cold front Saturday afternoon. We will be near the southern edge of the prevailing westerlies aloft, with subtropical ridging to our south.
710 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Fair weather is in store to close the work week as high pressure builds into the area.
Near record temperature in the mid to upper 90s expected pretty much everywhere but the Space and Treasure Coasts, where the sea breeze is expected to push inland early enough to hopefully keep those locations closer to the low 90s. Slightly drier conditions than the last few days are expected to keep heat indices around 108-111F, despite the slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds. Generally favorable boating conditions as high the ridge axis of high pressure extending across Florida from the Atlantic drifts northward towards the Treasure Coast waters.
515 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Fair weather is in store to close the work week as high pressure builds into the area.
635 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 A ridge of high pressure will build over the region today through the weekend.
Weak cut-off low pressure anchored along the southern California coast will continue to push moist unstable air up into most of central and portions of northern Nevada through Saturday.
The HREF ensemble max indicates speeds across the ridgelines of the central mountains could reach up to 25 mph and by 2 PM portions of the eastern Magic Valley and lower Snake Plain could observe similar winds through sunset. An upper low will continue rotating over California as a ridge builds just to its east over the southwestern U.
Timing differences exist amongst the models as to when a cold front will pass through the area over the next couple of days, so precip chances were kept in the 40 to 50 percent range during evening and overnight hours on Saturday. We will be near the southern edge of the prevailing westerlies aloft, with subtropical ridging to our south.
328 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 A warm front will bring a return of humidity and storms to the region on Saturday.
This, combined with afternoon highs in the low 90s, will result in heat index values in excess of 105F.
The Northern Rockies will remain under northwest flow aloft as low pressure moves across Canada to our northeast and high pressure builds to the south.
An upper level ridge centered over southeastern Texas will not budge much over the next 24 hours or so. Mid-level moisture will still be riding around the periphery of the ridge and bend into the area from the west. The surface pressure trough will be located across eastern New Mexico on Saturday afternoon.
So the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms still looks like eastern AZ, though cloud cover could keep the instability down so strong storms are less likely.
Saturday, high pressure will work into the area with NW winds and sunny skies.
Highs will range from the upper 60s across far northern Wisconsin, to the low 80s in the Fox Valley.
309 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend within a moist and unstable airmass with successively stronger perturbations/trofs aloft moving through as well as low level/surface foci later into the weekend.
235 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 High pressure will be in control the next couple of days.
1106 AM PDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Low pressure meandering near the California coast will bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra and western Nevada.
(This evening through Saturday Night) Forecast remains unchanged as the mid-upper level ridge remains parked over the region. Always remember to look before you lock! With the ridge maintaining a firm grip over SE Texas, not expecting anything in the way of precipitation in the near-term.