Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
513 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (Today and tonight) We will continue to be under cyclonic flow aloft today as a strong upper low slowly meanders across the Midwest. Cyclonic flow aloft will begin to be replaced by short wave ridging overnight tonight.
434 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (Today through Thursday Night ) Cooler and drier air continues to filter into the state behind the cold front that pushed through the state on Tue.
High pressure ridging has been shunted south/east of the local waters.
Remains sunny and very warm today, with afternoon high temps in the lower to middle 80s. Warm and dry conditions will continue today across the region as high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s across South Florida. Low temps tonight in the lower 70s for the east coast metro, and mid to upper 60s elsewhere. On Thursday, a cold front approaches South Florida. Also, with the front coming through later part of the day Thursday high temperatures will still climb well above average, ranging from the low 80s in the interior to mid 80s along the East Coast.
Looking at the current water vapor imagery, our area remains under weak northwest flow with weak high pressure ridging centered over Oregon and Washington. Today, models show upper level clouds moving over the low level clouds, which creates a seeder feeder scenario producing very light snow. For Thursday, models show the weak high pressure ridge currently over Oregon/Washington moving east through our area tonight and working its way out of our area by Thursday afternoon. Models continue to show a moist wave in southwest flow coming off an upper level low currently located in the Pacific, just off the Oregon/Washington coast. Temperatures by mid to late morning will be mostly above freezing in lower elevations bringing mostly a rain/snow mix for mainly the Shoshone, Eastern Magic Valley, and Snake Plain regions.
526 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 Low pressure remains to our north over the Upper Mississippi Valley today, spinning largely in place. We'll be in the cool westerly flow beneath this low today, with an area of low clouds progressing eastward across the region a sign of this cool advection. In fact, forecast high at Quincy is just 1 degree warmer than their current temperature as of 2AM. We'll drop back below freezing for just about the entire forecast area tonight. On Thursday morning we'll see another push of cool advection around the base of the upper low, leading to another uptick in cloud cover and perhaps slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow than are observed today. This will be the last push of cooler air as the low finally begins to push east into the Great Lakes on Thursday.
215 AM MST Wed Jan 4 2023 Fog, locally dense in the Milk River Valley, is expected to redevelop early this morning, but warmer and drier southwesterly winds are forecast to increase today across much of the Treasure State, lasting through the afternoon. Weak upper-level ridging sits just overtop of the Northern Rockies and will continue to propagate eastward over the rest of the Treasure State over the course of the next several days. There are some discrepancies related to the positioning of the upper-level ridging, but the general consensus is that high pressure ridging will prevail over the Treasure State, continuing the overall pattern of fair and dry conditions. Thereafter, the southwesterly winds associated with the aforementioned propagating upper-level ridging will assist in advecting drier and warmer air into the valley.
A cutoff low will meander around eastern Montana today moving into western North Dakota tonight kicking most of the low stratus tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will range from the mid teens across the northeast to the lower 30s across the southwest.
520 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 KEY MESSAGES 1) Periods of light snow continue today although any additional accumulations will be minor 2) Northwest winds remain elevated today with persistent drifting issues 3) Quieter conditions ahead with temperatures largely below normal Today: 500 mb closed low currently along the MN/IA border will slowly wobble in place through the day.
649 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Cold front along with showers and thunderstorms moving through the region today and offshore tonight.
Daytime highs are forecast to range from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s south. A cold front currently located well northwest of FL is expected to continue push southward into the Florida Peninsula. Drier and a cooler weather conditions are anticipated for the weekend. SE wind flow gradually turning more SW ahead of a cold front that will bring rain chances with some storms possible this afternoon/evening into tomorrow morning. A cold front moves into the northern waters late tonight, then moves south of the area by Thursday evening. High pressure and more pleasant conditions will be found over the weekend. A cold front will sweep south through the area Thursday bringing showers and storms to the Nature Coast tonight, and scattered showers and a few storms in Central and South Florida Wednesday night and Thursday.
633 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 Some flurries are being observed in the Bismarck area from the low stratus. A cutoff low will meander around eastern Montana today moving into western North Dakota tonight kicking most of the low stratus tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will range from the mid teens across the northeast to the lower 30s across the southwest.
222 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 Key Points: * Seasonable Temperatures Ahead * Predominately Dry Conditions Over the Next 7 Days A large upper trough remains across the eastern half of the US with a upper low approaching the Great Lakes. As the upper low continues to moves off to the east the regions temperatures will chill into the 20s with clearing skies. In addition, surface ridging will build in the region.
An upper level ridge currently over the western states, will translate east across the Rockies tonight and into the Plains by late Thursday.
1126 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (Today through Thursday Night ) Cooler and drier air continues to filter into the state behind the cold front that pushed through the state on Tue.
1225 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (Today through Thursday) A cold front is currently positioned over the central portions of the state this morning. The front is finally feeling the H5 trough upstream now helping move the band of convection along and ahead of the front downstream.
Cutoff upper low over se MN this aftn will wobble ewd across the lakes through Thu. Overall trend will be downward with greatest impacts not likely noted until near the end of the period as the closed upper low that has sat to our west finally drifts east with increasing chances for rain or snow showers. Towards the end of the period, KSBN will see the greatest chance of near if not into IFR cigs given the proximity of the low, with TAFs reflecting this.
(This afternoon through Thursday) The cold front continues to sink across our I-20 corridor and lies from deep east Texas near Center to Mansfield and Minden and in AR, knocking on the door at Magnolia.
More seasonably cooler temps will return tonight as yesterdays cold front pushes out of our CWA tracking east. An area of mainly stratiform showers with some embedded lightning strikes remains across parts of south/east MS, but these will depart before daybreak as the cold front continues to push eastward out of the area. Otherwise, surface ridging will build eastward over the region with dry conditions in the near term and only some lingering higher clouds as the upper trough axis is still just to the west. Temps today will still be a bit above average in the immediate wake of the front, but it will turn seasonably cooler tonight.
1200 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday) The cold front continues to sink across our I-20 corridor and lies from deep east Texas near Center to Mansfield and Minden and in AR, knocking on the door at Magnolia.
The cold front itself lags behind the line, and will move southeast across the area Overnight. While a few showers are possible on the front, the main area of convection will push east this afternoon with the prefrontal trough line.
High clouds will start to increase some tomorrow morning as an upper trough starts to enter the CONUS for the west.
1118 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday) Round 2 of showers and thunderstorms will be moving across C AL over the next few hours along an approaching cold front. Conditions will improve for tonight generally, but some cloud cover will be noted tonight as the upper low moves across the N Central US with the trough bringing some mid/upper moisture over the S US.
1000 AM MST Wed Jan 4 2023 Patchy fog will dissipate this morning in the Milk River Valley, with warmer and drier southwesterly winds forecast to increase today across much of the Treasure State. gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information /ISSUED 300 AM MST Wed Jan 4 2023/ Weak upper-level ridging sits just overtop of the Northern Rockies and will continue to propagate eastward over the rest of the Treasure State over the course of the next several days. There are some discrepancies related to the positioning of the upper-level ridging, but the general consensus is that high pressure ridging will prevail over the Treasure State, continuing the overall pattern of fair and dry conditions. Thereafter, the southwesterly winds associated with the aforementioned propagating upper-level ridging will assist in advecting drier and warmer air into the valley.
(This evening through Thursday Night) A super nice winter day going with the cold front still working through the parishes, but a range of 30 degree dew points feels like a frosty night on tap as skies clear.
1013 AM MST Wed Jan 4 2023 Fog across El Paso county has diminished early this morning as northwest winds aloft have been increasing and eroding the low level moisture. For today, some isolated morning snow showers across the central mountains will gradually diminish this morning with rising heights expected out west as the upper ridge translates in tonight. Lee troughing tonight will keep enhanced westerly winds continuing along the lower eastern slopes into portions of the I-25 corridor, and this should help keep temperatures slightly warmer with lows in the 20s to possibly near 30 where winds don't decouple. With clear skies early in the evening temperatures across some of the high valley locations will drop quickly with readings down around 0.
1126 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 KEY MESSAGES 1) Periods of light snow continue today although any additional accumulations will be minor 2) Northwest winds remain elevated today with persistent drifting issues 3) Quieter conditions ahead with temperatures largely below normal Today: 500 mb closed low currently along the MN/IA border will slowly wobble in place through the day.
(Today through Thursday) High pressure building into the region means a quiet short term period. We will see an enhancement in the ridge today bringing an additional drop of a few degrees in dewpoints, but still expect a very warm day on a dry northwesterly flow. Have temps topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s, but woulnd't be surprised if some locations are even warmer with the somewhat downslope flow we can see with this wind direction. Low temperatures tonight are likely to fall into the 40s for much of the area under mainly clear skies as high pressure settles in. By Thursday, high pressure will be shifting east of the area and winds will gradually shift around to the southeast, albeit still at light levels.
340 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Rain exits the forecast area this afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Much cooler temperatures expected behind the front through the end of the week, with some light rain or snow expected Thursday night. A dry forecast continues into the overnight hours, with several breaks in the clouds at the beginning of the night before low level clouds build back in with an upper low moving into the Midwest region. Upper low continues to slowly carve its way through the upper Midwest region on Thursday. Some breaks in the clouds expected earlier in the day, but we will cloud up pretty well as the low approaches. There has been a consistent signal in models pushing this low across our northern CWA and forcing some pcpn out of it.
(Tonight) Current satellite imagery shows a well defined cold front near southern GA/northern FL lined with showers and storms that stretch southwest over the Gulf of Mexico. This front is associated with a large upper low spinning in the Upper Midwest. In the wake of the cold front, a dry and cool airmass continues to filter into the Tennessee Valley.
(Rest of today through Thursday) High pressure over the central Atlantic remains in control of our weather across South Florida today and tonight. Plenty of dry air is in place across the area and a warm southerly flow is allowing temps to reach the low to middle 80s this afternoon. On Thursday a cold front associated with a complex system over the Great Lakes and northeast US will slowly dive south across the FL peninsula, reaching South Florida late in the day.
1149 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) At 0730Z, WV imagery shows the main trough axis has cleared West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as reflected in gradually diminishing winds in the mountains. Upper- level ridging begins building into the region today, resulting in a steep increase in thicknesses, increasing highs this afternoon 3-4F over yesterday's.
(Tonight through Thursday night) An upper level ridge over the Rockies tonight will move into the plains by Thursday night.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) A ridge will begin to build over the Panhandles today in response to another system impacting the West Coast. We'll be dry with temps generally building up to warmer than average through the short-range period. Temps will be slightly warmer in the southern half, ranging from around 25 to 30 degrees. Temps will rise Panhandle-wide into the 50's tomorrow as ridging becomes more established, with a few counties in the south getting into the low 60's. 10 to 15 mph downsloping westerly winds will develop tomorrow night, helping to keep lows warmer than average. Lows in the Texas Panhandle will range from the low 30's in the north to upper 30's/lower 40's in the south. The Oklahoma Panhandle will continue to have relatively weak winds which helps the lows dip into the upper 20's.
1116 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (Rest of Today) The cold front that brought the area heavy rain and severe thunderstorms last night has pushed well off to our east. In its wake, a cooler and drier airmass is filtering in from the northwest.
WV imagery indicates a closed upper low anchored across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, weak ridging aloft is shifting slowly east through the Intermountain West. Near the surface, an area of low pressure remains locked in across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at 07Z Wednesday shows the primary vorticity max responsible for the early week system spinning over the Upper Midwest, embedded within the larger longwave trough over the central CONUS. Resulting cold advection will limit afternoon temperatures to the mid 40s to near 50, save for the northern zones where thicker cloud cover will restrict highs to the low 40s.
1217 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Cold front along with showers and thunderstorms moving through the Southeast today.
1249 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Cold front along with showers and thunderstorms moving through the Southeast today.
* ON/OFF PCPN INTO THU: mostly light snow, light-minor amounts Slow moving, stacked low pressure system meanders eastward over the next couple days, getting a nudge from an upper level ridge moving out of the rockies. Some hints that there could be a periodic loss of ice here and there, making drizzle/freezing drizzle more likely. * DRIER, QUIETER WEEKEND, START TO NEW WEEK SPC cluster analysis continues to suggest the region will come under the influence of an upper level ridge this weekend, continuing to influence the region for at least the early part of the new week - potentially the whole week. The current low pressure system is progressing very slowly across the area, with periods of light snow and fog expected.
Some light precipitation is possible tonight as this cold advection pattern takes hold within broad/deep cyclonic flow around the Iowa upper level low. Fortunately sfc temps remain above freezing most of the night and freezing drizzle is not much of a concern. The upper low will move overhead on Thursday and the moisture depth is shown to increase substantially toward 12Z. Some light accumulations are possible Thursday but generally under one inch and mainly just on the grass since sfc temps remain the lower to mid 30s.
Some flurries are being observed in the Bismarck area from the low stratus. A cutoff low will meander around eastern Montana today moving into western North Dakota tonight kicking most of the low stratus tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will range from the mid teens across the northeast to the lower 30s across the southwest.
311 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Cold front exits east of the eastern mountains this evening. Made a quick update to increase PoPs with a line of showers crossing the area ahead of a cold front. Surface analysis shows cold front entering the Middle Ohio Valley early this afternoon. Tonight's temperatures will range from the upper 30s lowlands, into the lower 30s highest elevations.
An upper lvl ridge currently situated over the southwestern CONUS will reach the forecast area tomorrow. After a chilly start to the morning with lows at or near freezing across most of the region, increasing hghts aloft will allow temperatures to soar upwards of 8 to 10 degrees above normal by tomorrow afternoon. An increasing nocturnal low lvl jet tomorrow night will keep areas east of the Pecos River warmer w/lows in the mid 40s whereas the western higher terrain will see lows settle into the upper 30s to low 40s.
Thursday Night Through Wednesday A slow moving upper low will finally exit the region Thursday night. Lows will fall to around 10 above across the north to the lower to middle 20s over the Fox Valley and lakeshore.
The first is a warm front that will enter southeast Oregon this afternoon and move into southwest Idaho tonight. As warmer air moves in aloft behind the warm front, there is a slight chance of freezing rain Thursday, mainly in southeast Oregon running from near Burns to near Ontario and in the Weiser River Basin. At this time, the amount of freezing rain expected is low and it will be followed by a quick transition over to "regular" rain, so no winter weather advisory is anticipated.
These will mostly end this afternoon as a ridge crosses the region, but right behind it, another trough will enhance the shower activity once again.
124 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Widespread showers should diminish tonight in the wake of a crossing cold front. Recent surface observations suggest a cold front advancing eastward across Ohio, denoted by a westerly wind shift in the wake of the frontal passage. On Thursday, the aforementioned low should become vertically stacked as it is shunted eastward toward the Great Lakes in response to a digging western CONUS trough. Associated lowering heights should support temperature about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day's high temperature.
High pressure will remain nearly overhead; the center shifting slowly east along the Upper Texas and North Gulf Coasts. Mid- level flow will remain zonal, with upstream ridging shifting east into the High Plains.
1056 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 Low pressure remains to our north over the Upper Mississippi Valley today, spinning largely in place. We'll be in the cool westerly flow beneath this low today, with an area of low clouds progressing eastward across the region a sign of this cool advection. In fact, forecast high at Quincy is just 1 degree warmer than their current temperature as of 2AM. We'll drop back below freezing for just about the entire forecast area tonight. On Thursday morning we'll see another push of cool advection around the base of the upper low, leading to another uptick in cloud cover and perhaps slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow than are observed today. This will be the last push of cooler air as the low finally begins to push east into the Great Lakes on Thursday.
The greatest additional snow accumulations of three to five inches are forecast for the higher terrain of the Bayfield Peninsula, with up to three inches elsewhere for the warned area. Some freezing drizzle may mix in with the snow at times across northwest Wisconsin.
Behind it, winds are gradually shifting from the south southwest to the northwest as the cold front moves through. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region bringing us closer to feeling like winter in the South. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, warmer around the SE Big Bend.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Night/ Quiet weather is expected for the next couple of days as high pressure prevails. The far southern extent of a weak cold front has moved into North Texas and lowered temperatures a few degrees compared to yesterday. Our Central Texas counties should be warmer largely due to a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow just ahead of the now stalled frontal boundary. While northwest flow usually equates to cooler temperatures, the air is being adiabatically warmed/dried as it moves southeast. This will result in some peaking in the low 70s this afternoon with relative humidity falling between 20-25%. The center of a high pressure ridge should build over North and Central Texas tonight and slowly move east. South flow will return tomorrow night as the high center builds over the Southeast CONUS and a leeside low deepens to our northwest.
A brief period of freezing drizzle will be possible before a transition to snow as surfaces fall below freezing. Additionally with lows below freezing wet untreated surfaces will likely refreeze bringing slick conditions overnight into Thursday morning.
241 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 A general persistent pattern is likely to continue over the next 24- 36 hours with the mid/upper level low currently over the Upper Midwest slowly moving eastward. Further west/south, some sunshine is likely by the afternoon which should allow temperatures to warm up into the low to mid 40s. These cooler readings will be aided by at least some decrease in cloudiness overnight along with lighter westerly winds as the surface pressure gradient relaxes.
246 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Cold front exits east of the eastern mountains this evening. Surface analysis shows cold front entering the Middle Ohio Valley early this afternoon. Tonight's temperatures will range from the upper 30s lowlands, into the lower 30s highest elevations.
335 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Latest surface analysis shows the occluded low pressure system centered over the Mitten State with the cold front traveling south along I-75 through central KY. Satellite shows mostly clear skies in the wake of the cold front with a few cloud streets of stratocumulus streaming SW-NE. Mostly clear skies with periods of cloud cover will allow for temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s by tomorrow morning. Model soundings do show enough moisture depth tomorrow late afternoon/evening to allow for possible sprinkles/drizzle as the upper low traverses the OH Valley into the Great Lakes, so have included a slight chance mention of sprinkles to end the short term period.
In fact, the closed circulation of the low is quite visible within both the radar reflectivity and clouds on satellite. When breaks in the snow do occur due to the drying of the DGZ, freezing drizzle is likely given the still saturated low- level thermal profiles. The low will finally push east towards Lake Michigan by Thursday afternoon, dragging the snow with it. The northwesterly flow proceeding the low will continue to slowly cool us down over the next few days.