Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Also 30-50% coverage this afternoon in Twin Falls County and eastern Owyhee County due to an upper low in northeast NV. Showers and thunderstorms chances will increase in southern Idaho Sunday even though the upper low will be in UT at that time, as N-NE flow aloft will bring moisture in from the Boise Mountains and the central Idaho Mountains.
High pressure aloft will bring a warming trend with less marine layer today, then a weak upper level low pressure system will bring slight cooling on Sunday.
(Through Tonight) High pressure will build from the northwest to the northeast through Tonight. Cloudy skies will persist through the night, with lows ranging from the mid to upper 60s inland, to the lower 70s at the coast.
However, Sunday looks drier overall and warmer with more sunshine and 80s much more common. As the week ahead evolves, the anomalously strong high pressure over the Canadian provinces and adjacent sections of the Dakotas will still be the main influence on our weather. The result is the squeeze play of the high and troughiness to the west/south which sparked the recent of recent days will end, and the high pressure will result in a drier trend for the week ahead, though not totally dry.
1241 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Another very mild day is on tap for western and central North Dakota with widespread temperatures already in the low to mid 80s across the area. Currently, low pressure is situated over southeast Montana with a southeast surface flow across western and central North Dakota. In addition, with upper level ridging continuing to build over the area and some drier air at the surface, afternoon instability is also weak today with ML Capes mainly at or below 1000 J/KG, especially west.
Looking towards tonight, a mid/upper lvl low should continue to deepen and shift SE across the New England area, driving a backdoor/wedge front across the CWA by early Sunday, limiting high temperatures on Sunday into the low to mid 80s.
Aloft, heights will remain effectively unchanged in the short term as the country remains bookended by two troughs on either coast and a ridge retrograding across central/southern Canada.
609 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Area continues to be under the influence of deep easterly flow this afternoon thanks to high pressure centered over Canada. This mornings upper air analysis showed the axis of the upper ridge over Missouri and Illinois with the HREF shifting to the west by tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be 1-3 degrees cooler as winds will be a bit stronger out of the northeast and GFS/NAM 850mb temperatures will be slightly cooler. Britt Latest ensemble guidance continues to show that the upper high centered near Lake Winnipeg early in the period will slowly move southwest into the northern High Plains by mid-late week. In the meantime, a series of upper lows will move southeast across eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS.
(Tonight) High pressure at the surface promoting clear, calm, and dry conditions late this evening. This will be a good setup for radiational cooling in this drier air mass as low temperatures will bottom out in the lower 60s in most locations.
The showers and storms that developed late this afternoon ahead of a weak cold front will all exit the forecast area by sunset. An upper low is progged to persist across the northeastern CONUS through the period.
Some drier and cooler air is expected Sunday followed by a gradual warming trend into the middle of the week before moisture and rain chances return. Overnight lows will range from the low 60s in the north to mid 60s in the central Midlands through the CSRA. Digging lows into the Northeast CONUS will drive the pattern through the short term period, forcing weak troughing over our area aloft and northeast surface flow. For Sunday, the northeast flow and cold advection will help develop a bit of dry-wedge over the area so temps are expected to be quite a bit cooler than the last few days; highs in the upper 70's with some typical scattered strato-cu.
640 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) Highs are topping out this mid afternoon in the low to mid 90s, but we also have lots of rain cooled sites in the 70s. We have maintained the high afternoon pops with this issuance to keep the wording right for the still coming wet forecast where conditions remain unstable. Temperatures will be slightly cooler and there may be some low clouds as well along with areas of showers or isolated thunder during the overnight or predawn hours.
302 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 The forecast area is currently sitting in between two weak low pressure systems. Terrain driven storms have already developed over the higher elevations and are drifting to the southeast. Conditions tonight will be similar to last night but a little warmer. The remainder of the CWA will see scattered convection over the higher terrain much like today. A stubborn ridge of high pressure forming an omega block over the Central U. This should produce a pattern like we've seen the past week or so with daily showers and thunderstorms possible along the high terrain, with some spilling into adjacent valleys.
747 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 (Through Tonight) High pressure will build from the northwest to the northeast through Tonight. Cloudy skies will persist through the night, with lows ranging from the mid to upper 60s inland, to the lower 70s at the coast.
Most of the development is focused over the higher terrain with isolated showers/storms crossing the Snake Plain east of Boise. This area will keep a chance of showers overnight as it remains in a favorable area for precipitation development on the NW side of an upper low.
600 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 A weak cold front will arrive from the northeast tonight to bring both a 20 percent chance of a light shower, along with cooler temperatures for Sunday.
The theta e ridge runs through the same general area as well with abundant instability still in place. Have also bumped max temps on Sunday with the lower coverage expected.
852 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will develop as a backdoor cold front pushes southward this evening. Cooler air will follow for Sunday. A lingering upper level low should provide daily chances of showers and thunderstorms into the next work week. Noticeably Cooler. Can't rule out a lingering shower/thundershower overnight as backdoor cold front arrives from the northeast and passes through the forecast area. Overall trend is for cooler temperatures as dewpoints slip into the 50s for Sunday. Clouds may linger for most of the day, but some clearing appears possible towards Sunday afternoon as temperatures make it towards the lower 60s to the lower 70s. A couple showers and thunderstorms could develop west of the Blue Ridge in the afternoon along the periphery of the cool northeasterly flow wedged against the eastern Appalachian Mountains.
326 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Key Messages: 1) Cooler conditions with periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue into Sunday. Under this precip and widespread cloud cover, cooler conditions in the 50s and 60s are being observed at this time. Do think any stronger development will be very isolated at best and likely confined to around the higher terrain. If not, then would expect any stronger development to stay confined to over and near the higher terrain.
728 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 (Tonight) Gusty winds and mostly sunny skies have been the highlight of the TN Valley this afternoon as wind gusts up to 20-25 mph have been reported intermittently. Winds will decrease with sunset and temperatures are expected to drop into the low to mid 60s overnight, returning to near- normal values.
709 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level trough and low pressure system will be moving to the south and southeast today through Sunday. While the low is in the northern part of the state today, winds will be primarily from the north with plenty of drier air advected. With the low/trough south of the state, upper level dynamics will support scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and lasting into the evening hours.
930 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures ranging from around 70 degrees to the lower 80s. Hot and mostly dry conditions will be the story this weekend with temperatures in the low 90s. The work week will start out warm with highs in the lower 90s and a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A couple of back door cold fronts will drop temperatures back to normal later in the week.
709 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Showers will end early this evening as a cold front exits the region. The showers and storms that developed late this afternoon, ahead of a weak cold front, will all exit the forecast area by sunset. An upper low is progged to persist across the northeastern CONUS through the period.
Rain-cooled air has already modified temperatures in most areas across the Ark-La-Tex into the low-to- mid 70s, leaving drier areas like Texarkana and our easternmost zones with slightly milder conditions (upper 70s). /16/ (This evening through Sunday Night) Highs are topping out this mid afternoon in the low to mid 90s, but we also have lots of rain cooled sites in the 70s. We have maintained the high afternoon pops with this issuance to keep the wording right for the still coming wet forecast where conditions remain unstable. Temperatures will be slightly cooler and there may be some low clouds as well along with areas of showers or isolated thunder during the overnight or predawn hours.
548 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 The forecast area is currently sitting in between two weak low pressure systems. Terrain driven storms have already developed over the higher elevations and are drifting to the southeast. Conditions tonight will be similar to last night but a little warmer. The remainder of the CWA will see scattered convection over the higher terrain much like today. A stubborn ridge of high pressure forming an omega block over the Central U. This should produce a pattern like we've seen the past week or so with daily showers and thunderstorms possible along the high terrain, with some spilling into adjacent valleys.
An mid/upper level low pressure system was located near Wendover as of early afternoon, setting up a favorable corridor of ascent from the Wastach Front southwestward through SW Utah. Through this same corridor, the highest DCAPE values (just over 1,000J/kg), deep-layer shear (25-30kt) and SBCAPE (1,000J/kg) are co-located. It is through this corridor where the highest potential for strong to severe thunderstorms exist into the early evening hours. Model consensus suggests the upper low will only slowly meander east overnight, expected to be located over/near the Great Salt Lake by sunrise Sunday. While widespread showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish through the evening, the presence of the upper low will keep isolated showers going through the night across northern Utah. Upper low is forecast to move northward into southern Idaho by Sunday afternoon.
There is a low end chance for severe weather today, but the higher threat will continue to be the heavy rains given the already over saturated soils. Upper level negatively tilted trough continues to be oriented across the Southern High Plains early this afternoon. Convection is already ongoing across the higher terrain in NM with the closest area of precip along the CO/NM state line northwest of Clayton. Low level moisture is still on the high side given the abundance of rain over the last few weeks, so additional showers and storms are expected to develop and/or move over the CWA later today. Temperatures will remain below average, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Have extended pops until then but otherwise, another slightly warmer than normal night is expected. Aloft, heights will remain effectively unchanged in the short term as the country remains bookended by two troughs on either coast and a ridge retrograding across central/southern Canada.
Freezing levels have crept up north of 11kft, so hail isn't a big threat, but some smaller size pebbles are possible.
An upper level high continues to dominate over the Northern Plains and Southern Canada.
Water vapor imagery highlights a lazy, negatively tilted long wave trough axis down the eastern Gulf of Mexico into Cuba. At the base of this trough, the remnants of Arlene are swirling towards the Havana coastline. Additionally, the midday high tide on Sunday will be higher than usual, so boaters underneath the lower fixed bridges should expect much less clearance during high tide.
Made some adjustments to the temperature and dew points trends the remainder of the night, but it still appears we will bottom out in the low to mid 60s around sunrise. Went ahead and increased rain chances on Sunday by pulling the higher pops southwest. With the low/trough south of the state, upper level dynamics will support scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and lasting into the evening hours.
Large scale blocking ridge remains centered over our CWA, and while there will a slight westward shift this will tend to keep summer- like heat in place. This afternoon the prefrontal trough axis may act as a focus for higher coverage as the front is just to our northeast (especially in the north-northeast part of our CWA). The upper ridge shows more of a westward shift in response to troughing to the east deepening, but the pattern remains very blocky into the extended with some clusters showing the ridge rebuilding back towards our CWA. The trend with a westward shift and stronger influence of north-northwest flow should be fore the higher BL moisture axis to shift west and drier/more stable air to filter into our CWA from the northeast.
(Sunday through Monday) A lingering upper-level trough stretching from the Texas Panhandle southeastward into Louisiana and along the northern gulf coast to maintain an unsettled weather pattern across the region through the short-term period ending Monday afternoon.
(Today) In the very near term, showers and isolated storms are trying to redevelop early this morning across portions of eastern Oklahoma on the eastern edge of a mid-level shear axis and within the 700 mb theta-e ridge. Guidance is similar though on some drier air beginning to work into northwest Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma this afternoon as the mid-level flow turns more easterly in response to the anomalous ridge along the U. The combination of drying and a slightly weaker and broadening trough axis extending from southeast Colorado into southeast Oklahoma should limit thunderstorm chances compared to yesterday with the highest chances across the southeastern half of the CWA.
255 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Bottom Line up Front: Moisture axis will shift to the south and west putting the higher risk for heavy rain in the southwestern portions of the CWA.
Discussion: Backdoor cold front hard to pick out on a surface map but it appears it's somewhere along the NC/SC border and west into the southern TN Valley this morning. The highest POPs are across the southern TN Valley and southwest NC.
Zonal flow aloft expected over the state through the week south of broad E CONUS troughing. Surface frontal boundary drops south across the peninsula today into Monday followed by weak ridging building over SE U.
An omega blocking pattern remains in place through the short term, so expect more of the same overall. Overall, with the high pressure from the omega block centered over the northern plains, and surface boundaries remaining in eastern Montana and southern Canada, the forcing mechanism look limited primarily to daytime heating.
A weak upper level low pressure system will bring slight cooling on Sunday.
Upper level ridge is retrograding westward over the Northern Plains. Upstream, an upper level low will be moving towards the California coast and meanwhile, downstream, a mid-upper level near the New England coast will continue to deepen and slowly shift southeastward. Temperatures across much of north Georgia will be limited to the low 80s, with mid 80s expected elsewhere across the forecast area. As a disturbance rotates around the western side of the low, lobe of mid-level cyclonic vorticity will move southwestward through the Mid- South and through west Georgia this afternoon. Ascent ahead of this feature will help force the development of showers and thunderstorms, with the highest chances being in the afternoon when diurnal instability can aid in convective development.
The overall pattern changes little over the next 7 days as the Northern Rockies remain in southerly flow between a low pressure trough along the West Coast and a ridge over the Northern Plains.
(Now through Sunday) Mid to upper level troughing remains semi-permanent across the eastern CONUS. Temperatures will be hot, having topped out in the lower to middle 90's for most locations this afternoon.
1029 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Area continues to be under the influence of deep easterly flow this afternoon thanks to high pressure centered over Canada. This mornings upper air analysis showed the axis of the upper ridge over Missouri and Illinois with the HREF shifting to the west by tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be 1-3 degrees cooler as winds will be a bit stronger out of the northeast and GFS/NAM 850mb temperatures will be slightly cooler. Britt Latest ensemble guidance continues to show that the upper high centered near Lake Winnipeg early in the period will slowly move southwest into the northern High Plains by mid-late week. In the meantime, a series of upper lows will move southeast across eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS.
Otherwise, chances for precip/convection should become more isolated to widely scattered Sunday into Monday as the influence of the retrograding ridge aloft moving over the northern Plains and somewhat drier easterly component low level air advects across eastern Kansas. Darmofal Blocking ridge aloft over the central conus will continue to keep the pattern rather stagnant across the region.
147 AM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023 The weather will slowly dry out and remain seasonably warm through early this upcoming week as an upper ridge makes itself comfortable over the central US. At this hour an upper level high sits centered over the Northern Plains, flanked on the east and west by two upper lows. For the next several days, the upper pattern remains stagnant as the ridge settles over the region. In terms of sensible weather impacts: conditions will be warmer and generally dry. Highs will generally be near to above average, reaching into the 80s and perhaps the low 90s near south central SD.
A backdoor cold front will cool temperatures closer to near to slightly below normal by Monday, and create gusty easterly winds.
1029 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 This Evening/Tonight: The warm and breezy day continues! Taking a look across the area, very summer-like conditions are on tap this afternoon with temperatures hovering in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the low to mid 60s. Lows are expected to dip into the low to mid 60s as temperatures gradually decrease. Taking a look aloft, upper level ridging continues to circulate over the northerly plains as a closed low pressure system dips southward over the eastern CONUS.
The region remains under northwesterly flow aloft and this will continue for the foreseeable future as a blocking pattern sets up tomorrow with a low off the New England coast and another one approaching the west coast and then parking just off the southern California coast.
For land areas, the mid-level trough will continue to have an influence on general convective development today in addition to diurnal heating and the sea breeze. The atmosphere will stabilize Sunday night while the mid-level trough simultaneously begins to depart off to the east going into Monday.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: One amplified early summer longwave pattern out there early this morning, featuring stout central Noam ridge axis upstream from deep Canadian Maritimes centered troughing. Weak cold front driven by said pattern amplification expected to drop south across the region tonight, beginning the step-down process to a bit cooler weather regime as we head into the middle of the week. and this despite high temperatures running a few degrees "cooler" than those observed yesterday. Cold front drops south into the region tonight. Lows tonight mostly in the lower and middle 50s.
907 PM PDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Our modest warming inland will hold through Sunday, ahead of an incoming Pacific low pressure system to begin the work week.
These differential storm motions will be due to steering flow on either side of the trough axis, so be aware of that.
302 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 (Issued 302 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023) Today through Monday: Look for slightly cooler temperatures today across the eastern half of the area, in the wake of a weak frontal boundary passing through the region.
However, the latest radar returns show increasing shower development across the lower deserts as the cold front approaches from the west. Additional accumulations this morning as the cold front moves through the valley should remain around 0. The Flood Watch remains in effect through today due to the continued potential for the additional rain amounts across the higher terrain areas to cause more flooding issues. The cold front will push through the metro area by this afternoon, with only a few residual showers lingering into the evening hours primarily confined to the higher terrain areas.
Young/Szot (Today and tonight) The warming trend continues as initially zonal flow aloft transitions to a ridging pattern centered over the Gulf. Therefore, we are looking at above-normal temperatures with afternoon readings peaking into the low 80s at most inland locations. With a saturated boundary layer developing beneath a strong subsidence inversion from the aforementioned ridge, a foggy/low stratus pattern is anticipated the next 2-3 days.
251 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday) Widespread showers across North Georgia remain ongoing after a moist, overrunning Gulf air pushing inland across the lower Mississippi River Valley ascends over a stationary front draped across the forecast area. Any fog and low-level cloud coverage that does for seems to dissolve in the late morning hours as high temperatures rise to around 80 degrees! with dewpoints in the low-50s which should provide a nice mini-taste of summer to end the week. With moisture surges likely to become more common, it's possible we've seen the last of freezing temperatures for the season (outside of the higher elevations) but only time and Mother Nature know for sure.
Winds could still be a bit breezy in the James River Valley through mid morning before the low exits further to our east, leading to some patchy blowing snow. Otherwise should be a quiet day weather- wise, with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 20s, as an upper trough base swings through.
1023 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023 Satellite is showing persistent stratus with the incoming high pressure this morning.
A break in the precipitation should develop this afternoon and last into tonight and Thursday morning across much of the forecast area as a building mid level ridge shunts most of the precipitation to the north and west of the immediate area. The potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase from the northwest late Thursday afternoon as a cold front approaches. Expect a warming trend through the period, as highs warm from the upper 50s and lower 60s today into the lower and middle 70s on Thursday. What is not as clear is the high end forecast storm total qpf, and where that axis sets up.