Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1257 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night) Dangerous heat should continue through the first half of this week as an Upper level ridge remains positioned over the Southern Plains/Mexico. 500mb heights within the midlevel ridge should remain around 594-596 dam through Tuesday night. 850mb temperatures are still expected to range between 22-28C during this time frame, with southwesterly flow present in the lower levels. Dewpoints are largely expected to remain in the mid 70s to lower 80s, though afternoon mixing could bring them into the lower 70s.
As the surface pressure gradient remains tight overnight, we'll continue to see breezy southerly winds persist, all the while temps aloft remain toasty as the thermal ridge sets in. It appears temps aloft may be just a touch cooler compared to today, but still a hot air mass over us nonetheless, with plenty of mixing to help temps soar once again into the 90s to around 100 degrees. Turning to convection potential, will be watching a cold front move into central SD during the afternoon hours. Models indicate moderate to strong instability developing along the front as surface dewpoints should climb into the low to possibly mid 60s. The upper level low over the Pacific Northwest continues to slide north along the Rockies keeping us in southwesterly flow aloft.
1135 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Key messages: - Hot and dry weather today and most of tomorrow with elevated fire weather conditions possible - Showers and thunderstorms develop tomorrow with marginal severe threat - A more active weather pattern through the end of the week will bring chances for heavy rain to the region Current upper air analysis and water vapor imagery depict broad trough over the Pacific Northwest. Amplifying upper level ridge over the central CONUS and strong WAA at the sfc will contribute to a hot and dry day across the CWA today. The low shear will prevent updrafts from being too persistent, however the steep lapse rates and high CAPE will lend to storms capable of damaging winds and scattered large hail.
205 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Upper low over the Pacific northwest will be the main weather features impacting northeast Montana through the week. While temperatures will be cooler, waves in SW flow aloft could lead to some more showers and thunderstorms with the best chance Tuesday Night. The remainder to the week will see the Pacific Northwest upper low elongate and split although remain over the west. Open trough will slowly move from western to central Canada, while closed low over California will lift through the Great Basin.
112 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Aviation A developing rex block will mean dry weather through Tuesday as the upper high moves across the Great Lakes. No precip is expected through Tuesday although there will be a slight increase in moisture as the upper low begins to move north. A rex block high will be positively tilted up and over a large quasi stationary upper level low that will remain over Kentucky and Indiana through most of the week.
1216 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 High pressure over eastern Canada will keep dry weather in place through tonight.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) The hot weather continues as the mid-level ridge stays over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the short term forecast.
Gusty winds have begun to develop across the region this morning ahead of an approaching trough. Gusts of 40-50 mph will be expected this afternoon across the higher terrain this afternoon. Deepening of a trough over the Northwest will result in stronger winds for today: wind gusts by the afternoon are expected to hit 40-50 mph for much of northern Arizona, hence the wind advisory for today. Once we get past Tuesday, the trough will have weaken enough that winds and subsequent fire weather concerns will be past.
SIGNIFICANT HEATWAVE CONTINUES WITH SWELTERING TEMPERATURES We are now entering the potentially hottest part of this strong upper ridging pattern as we now see a model trend of less convective activity forecast for Tuesday, after we are hopefully seeing one last round of West Central TX storms moving into our Hill Country counties.
129 PM PDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Cooler than normal temperatures and locally gusty winds continue today.
The strong ridge aloft situated over NE Mexico/Rio Grande is expected to remain in place through mid week at the very least, but more likely until the end of the week on into the weekend.
An upper level weakness sliding through the expanding ridge later tonight may result in elevated isolated to scattered convection, mainly across SE OK late tonight. Upper ridge will continue to expand N-NE tomorrow, with high temps and resultant heat index values at or slightly higher than Monday. Later in the week, the northern part of the upper ridge will be undercut by developing low pressure across the SE CONUS that will begin to lift northeast by the weekend. Between this feature and an upper trough moving onto the west coast, slightly improved upper flow develops over the area, and suggests a potential storm complex at some point over the weekend.
1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 An upper level low pressure system will move from the lower Ohio River Valley to Alabama and Georgia through midweek. High temperatures through midweek will range from the lower 80s near the Tennessee River to around 90 degrees over east central Arkansas and northwest Mississippi.
Details: Expect a mainly quiet week with ridging starting to build into the forecast area today. Most of the area should reach the low 90s this afternoon. On Tuesday we will continue to see the ridge build and positively tilt toward the Great Lakes region with a nearly stationary closed low across the eastern US. With this blocking pattern developing, expect little change in the forecast each day. As we head into the mid-week we will see the closed low to our east start to push slightly west while the troughing to our west will amplify somewhat. This will push the ridge slightly to the south.
614 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The hot weather continues as the mid-level ridge stays over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the short term forecast.
304 PM PDT Mon Jun 19 2023 A deep and cold upper low will linger over the region through midweek, keeping colder than average temperatures and a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially on Tuesday.
541 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Northeast Colorado will remain between troughing over the Pacific Northwest and ridging over Mexico and the southern US, with increasing southwesterly flow aloft. Tonight, mostly clear and dry with near normal overnight low temperatures, in the 50s across the plains and mostly 30s and 40s across the high country. Tomorrow, mostly clear to partly cloudy and dry with near normal high temperatures, in the 80s across the plains and mostly 50s and 70s across the high country.
334 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Cyclonic, southwesterly flow is currently set up across Wyoming as a broad trough extends from the northwestern US. Showers will linger tonight, becoming more widespread on Tuesday as the trough axis nudges closer. High temperatures will be slightly decreased as cooler air is pushed in from the west. Guidance continues to favor cyclonic flow aloft through the rest of the week a trough persists across the western US. Ensemble guidance does favor higher heights towards the end of the weekend, which could signal a return to warmer and drier conditions. Temperatures will be a little cooler, with gusty winds continuing across southern Wyoming.
With the upper low positioned to the north of us, moisture has been making its way in from the coast and this has brought the return of rain. Our record low high temperature for today is 61 degrees in 1991, and with the heavy cloud cover and cooler air, we may have a new record. Although the trough axis will move eastward tonight, the upper trough will remain in the area tomorrow. Temperatures tomorrow will still be cooler, but a small rebound will be found with temperatures on average mostly 10 to 20 degrees below normal.
It still feels very much like it is the middle of the summer out there this evening, especially in the Lower to Middle Keys. From synopsis, as ridging shifts north, light and variable breezes will become east to southeast overnight.
Anderson (Issued 257 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023) Tonight through Tuesday night: High pressure to the east northeast of the area will continue to bring dry conditions. Highs in the middle to upper 80s are expected for Tuesday, with cooler 70s near the lake.
728 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 High pressure will dominate our weather much of the week. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Otherwise, fair weather tonight with weak ridging across the region.
607 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 (Tonight) Both a cutoff upper low and area of low pressure at the sfc remain in place over the OH Valley this Mon afternoon. Current temps have managed to climb into the lower 80s for many spots, and these temps may climb a couple of more degrees before sensible heating wanes.
The short term forecast period will be dominated by a stalled out low pressure system meandering through the Kentucky-Tennessee area. With northerly winds, highs will primarily be in the lower half of the 80s.
706 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 High pressure will dominate our weather much of the week. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Otherwise, fair weather tonight with weak ridging across the region.
1002 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 High pressure will dominate our weather much of the week. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Otherwise, fair weather tonight with weak ridging across the region.
A cold front was moving through Central Alabama early this evening and was located in the vicinity of TCL-BHM-ANB. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (Tuesday) By sunrise Tuesday, isolated to scattered showers could begin developing, mainly in the northeast, closer to this low pressure system. With all this said, scattered activity could spread from the northeastern corner of the area, to basically the eastern half of the state where the greater low level convergence will be from the low pressure system.
Tonight: An area of high pressure will continue to build across the Great Lakes region allowing for fairly quiet conditions to return tonight, with low temperatures in the 50s to low 60s, clearing skies, and light SE winds. This pattern will feature deep troughing over the northwestern U. and an upper level low over the southeastern U. , with upper level ridge building in between from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region. This looks to once again bring in warmer and drier conditions to the local region. Overall, current guidance shows the ridge breaking down over the Great Lakes, with flow over the region becoming more zonal. Building high pressure will provide VFR conditions for much of the Upper Mississippi River Valley from eastern Minnesota into central Wisconsin for the 00Z TAF period.
This energy is on the southern flank of an upper low sitting across the southern Appalachians. Lows will drop into the low 70s overnight.
A quick interrogation of latest observations highlight today's weather theme of much cooler temperatures, brisk westerly winds, and even a few rain showers in Lassen and N Washoe counties. Temperatures as of 1 PM PDT were generally running 10 to 15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Lows will plummet into the 20s for Sierra communities and near or just above freezing for the typically colder valleys of western Nevada.
927 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 High pressure will remain in place over New England for much of the week, before exiting to the northeast later this week.
811 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 A slow moving low pressure system settles southward tonight through midweek, and then lifts back north late week. Intermittent showers will continue overnight as the upper low center resides over the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Meanwhile, its upper level low counterpart follows shortly behind it providing ripples of vorticity rotating around a broad circulation over our area. An upper low present over KY/TN at the start of the work week should slowly sink towards the Gulf Coast Tuesday into Tuesday night.
616 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 An upper low will slide southward over the SE United States. This will keep us cooler than normal and will be a source for diurnally driven showers and storms this week.
701 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Looking at the CONUS as a whole, there's a fairly stout mid/upper ridge building in across the southern and central plains with upper troughing across the western CONUS and a cutoff upper low over the Ohio Valley. The primary feature influencing our weather will be the upper ridge as it temporarily dampens rain chances while promoting warmer temperatures across the forecast area.
634 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Expect the convection north of the CWA to remain there given the proximity of the upper ridge and recent CIN values on the order of 100 J/lg per the LAPS. The CWA will remain under the influence of the upper ridge during the period. Nevertheless, will continue the Excessive Heat Warning for the Rio Grande Plains Tuesday since the greater diurnal heating may overcome the lower dew points resulting in continued maximum Heat Index values around 115.
632 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Upper level ridging will remain overhead tonight and Tuesday.
Upper ridge will continue to expand N-NE tomorrow, with high temps and resultant heat index values at or slightly higher than Monday. Later in the week, the northern part of the upper ridge will be undercut by developing low pressure across the SE CONUS that will begin to lift northeast by the weekend. Between this feature and an upper trough moving onto the west coast, slightly improved upper flow develops over the area, and suggests a potential storm complex at some point over the weekend.
450 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Cyclonic, southwesterly flow is currently set up across Wyoming as a broad trough extends from the northwestern US. Showers will linger tonight, becoming more widespread on Tuesday as the trough axis nudges closer. High temperatures will be slightly decreased as cooler air is pushed in from the west. Guidance continues to favor cyclonic flow aloft through the rest of the week a trough persists across the western US. Ensemble guidance does favor higher heights towards the end of the weekend, which could signal a return to warmer and drier conditions. Temperatures will be a little cooler, with gusty winds continuing across southern Wyoming.
1143 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Looking at the CONUS as a whole, there's a fairly stout mid/upper ridge building in across the southern and central plains with upper troughing across the western CONUS and a cutoff upper low over the Ohio Valley. The primary feature influencing our weather will be the upper ridge as it temporarily dampens rain chances while promoting warmer temperatures across the forecast area.
1148 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 High pressure across Quebec and Ontario still has the upper hand in SE Mi providing VFR conditions under decreasing cirrus late tonight through the morning. This will continue to be the case for roughly 24 hours before an upper level Rex Block increasingly takes shape and organizes the lowered height anomaly immediately south of the state over the Ohio River Valley. A nice summer evening with temperatures dropping quickly into the lower 70s upper 60s post sunset. Upper level forecast charts showing just a sliver of an upper level speed max/jetlet but is expected to result in enough geopotential height falls to carve out a weakness in the ridging aloft.
936 PM PDT Mon Jun 19 2023 A deep and cold upper low will linger over the region through midweek, keeping colder than average temperatures and a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially on Tuesday.
Outside of the smoke, not much to talk about in the short term with a positively tilted ridge continuing to build through the central U. with upper lows over the southeast and northwest U. Thus, high pressure conditions with ample sunshine will dominate much of the work week with surface flow out of the east to southeast bringing in drier air that will help keep heat indicies near to lower than the actual temperatures.
432 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 A slow moving upper low will meander to our west through midweek before finally lifting north and east by the weekend. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s with lows in the lower to middle 70s. The area will remain unsettled however with the more typical summertime features for the forcing such as the sea breeze and inland Piedmont trough. The higher pops will be in place during the daytime hours as well.
Incoming cold front is sparking a broken line of light showers extending from near Pioche towards Fort Irwin. A windy start to the work week is in store as an anomalous trough remains positioned to our northwest. Latest model guidance has 500mb height anomalies with this trough at -3 sigma, showcasing the unusualness of the pattern for mid-June. Large-scale ascent downstream of the trough axis will induce pressure falls across central Nevada and Utah, driving gusty southwest winds across the region today. Forecast highs in Las Vegas are in the low 90s, with the entire CWA 6-10 degrees below normal. Skies should be mostly clear, with just some passing high clouds and a few lenticular clouds tied to the high terrain.
High pressure remains to the south with repeated stalled outflow/frontal boundary to the north leading to an unsettled weather pattern during the upcoming week.
Synoptically, the pattern remains the same with upper level trough sliding down into the Deep South over the next few days. At the surface, high pressure remains across the Florida Straits keeping west to southwest flow in place.
(Today and tonight) The upper ridge continues to spin over Mexico with west southwesterly flow aloft. Thus, winds will be fairly light and variable and dewpoints will remain in the mid-60s with temperatures potentially clocking in slightly cooler than anticipated. Thus less than 10 PoPs were maintained given the low potential for showers.
Upper trof inland over the Pacific Northwest with southwest flow aloft over Colorado. Northeast Colorado will remain between troughing over the Pacific Northwest and ridging over Mexico and the southern US, with increasing southwesterly flow aloft. Tonight, mostly clear and dry with near normal overnight low temperatures, in the 50s across the plains and mostly 30s and 40s across the high country. Tomorrow, mostly clear to partly cloudy and dry with near normal high temperatures, in the 80s across the plains and mostly 50s and 70s across the high country.
208 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 A stationary front will linger over the area this week as low pressure develops to the west. Lows will range from the upper 60s well inland to the low/mid 70s at the beaches, including Downtown Charleston. At the sfc, broad low pressure centered to the west will become more pronounced heading through the middle of week with a nearly stationary front extending to the east and across the local area through much of the week. 00 inches) and daytime heating (high temps in the low-mid 80s) leading to SBCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg within a marginally sheared environment, suggests rounds of numerous to potentially widespread showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly multicellular in nature and brief heavy rainfall producers each afternoon/evening.
431 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Low pressure over Kentucky will shift slowly south through the Tennessee Valley through mid week. The low will then return north late in the week before pushing off to the east over the weekend. Vertically stacked low pressure over central Kentucky to sink slowly south into the TN Valley today. As the low sinks south today, modest low level jet of 30 to 35 KTS to rotate around this low leading to an uptick in precipitation coverage. High temperatures to range from the upper 70s south to the lower 80s north.
Slightly below normal temperatures will continue across the Mid- South through the end of the workweek as an upper level low pressure system remains in close proximity to the region. Summertime heat should return this weekend as upper level high pressure builds in from the west. Aloft, an upper level low remains anchored over the Tennessee River Valley. The pattern will shift a bit this weekend as the upper low finally lifts out. Another upper low will quickly traverse the Great Basin and trek across the Northern Plains.
There is a slight chance (<20 percent) that fog develops in the Lower Treasure Valley (west of Boise) overnight. An upper trough remains over the area on Tuesday with a return to afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the higher elevations.
Tonight: An area of high pressure will continue to build across the Great Lakes region allowing for fairly quiet conditions to return tonight, with low temperatures in the 50s to low 60s, clearing skies, and light SE winds. This pattern will feature deep troughing over the northwestern U. and an upper level low over the southeastern U. , with upper level ridge building in between from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region. This looks to once again bring in warmer and drier conditions to the local region. Overall, current guidance shows the ridge breaking down over the Great Lakes, with flow over the region becoming more zonal. Issued for 1200 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Persistent high pressure continues current conditions for much of the 06Z TAF period.
An upper trough will slowly work its way eastward and out of the area.
Regional radar loop at 03Z shows scattered showers and thunderstorms overspreading the southwest portion of the forecast area associated with increasing low level moisture ahead of upper low over southern KY. A veil of high clouds linked to the upper low, combined with an easterly flow off of the Atlantic, should hold temperatures down and probably stifle convection across central and southern PA Tuesday. Ensemble plumes indicate highs Tuesday will be several degrees lower than today, ranging from within a couple degrees of 80F over much of the area, to only the low 70s over Somerset County.
327 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 A moist pattern, with above normal rainfall chances, and below normal high temperatures, will continue for at least several more days, as an upper level low remains nearly stationary just to our W and NW, with a moist atmosphere remaining in place.
306 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Key Message: * Dry and comfortably warm The pattern remains blocky/stagnant with a somewhat narrow amplified upper ridge extending from Texas to Ontario, and upper level troughs across the western and eastern CONUS. At the surface, a large expanse of high pressure was noted across the Great Lakes region providing dry easterly low level flow, which has been a rather common occurrence over the past few months.
230 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Upper trough over the Pacific northwest will be the main weather features impacting northeast Montana through the week. The remainder to the week will see the Pacific Northwest upper trough elongate and split although remain over the west. The open trough over the north will slowly move from western to central Canada, while a closed low develops over California and lifts through the Great Basin.
1207 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Expect the convection north of the CWA to remain there given the proximity of the upper ridge and recent CIN values on the order of 100 J/lg per the LAPS. The CWA will remain under the influence of the upper ridge during the period. Nevertheless, will continue the Excessive Heat Warning for the Rio Grande Plains Tuesday since the greater diurnal heating may overcome the lower dew points resulting in continued maximum Heat Index values around 115.
1141 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 An upper low will slide southward over the SE United States. This will keep us cooler than normal and will be a source for diurnally driven showers and storms this week.
1219 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 High pressure will dominate our weather much of the week. Otherwise, fair weather tonight with weak ridging across the region.