Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
158 PM MDT Wed Oct 25 2023 Current upper air analysis shows split flow, with an upper trough over the southern plains, as well as a closed low over the PAC NW region, with southwest flow over the forecast area. At the surface, warm front sits over southwestern SD, but that is quickly followed by a cold front currently over our northeastern WY counties this afternoon, that will slowly slide east through the rest of our area today. Temperatures east of the cold front have reached into the mid 40s to mid 50s, while areas behind the front in NE WY have quickly dropped into the 30s. There is a small chance for brief freezing rain overnight in far northwest SD, however given the current model soundings and surface temperatures, more than likely will see a rain/snow transition.
315 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High pressure will modify while extending across the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through the end of the week. Water vapor imagery this morning depicted a mid-level ridge centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Mid to high level clouds were evident along the western edge of this ridge, but stayed mostly north of our area. At the sfc, high pressure was centered over the southeast, promoting calm to light enely flow this morning. Associated moisture return will slowly creep from south to north with dew points returning into the lower to mid 50s through tonight. Generally a persistence forecast of unseasonably mild-warm and dry conditions will continue, influenced by a mid-level anticyclone and associated positive-tilt ridge axis that will remain over the South Atlantic states through 12Z Fri.
(This evening through Thursday Night) Despite drier air aloft due to the influence of the ridge to our east, deep low level Gulf moisture continues to filter in this afternoon.
(Tonight) High pressure anchored both at the sfc and aloft is dominating the weather pattern for the Tennessee Valley today.
Breezy and cooler weather will stick around much of this week, with even colder and windier conditions for the coming weekend. Morning upper air and dew point analysis indicates most remaining moisture has moved south and southeast of the CWA as the upper low moves away from the area. Drier and more stable air aloft will continue to move in from the west, as a long wave trough deepens over the region.
Satellite imagery this morning showing the upper low center along the WA coast. A band of deeper moisture out ahead of the low extends from northern CA into SE Oregon and SW Idaho. This is an area of steadier precipitation which will shift south and east during the day as the low moves inland. An accompanying cold front positioned over central Oregon this morning will cross the area today.
347 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High pressure has stiled across the Carolinas, with warm southwesterly flow allowing for above normal temperatures to evolve locally through the remainder of the workweek.
Water vapor imagery currently shows the center of the upper level low over eastern NM. The low is expected to track across the FA tonight keeping the upper-level lift in place over the region through this evening before it quickly tracks into the Central Plains tomorrow morning.
Above average temperatures will also remain as an upper level ridge overhead strengthens. Expect high temperatures to climb into mid 80s on Thursday after a mild start with low temperatures in the low 60s.
With a few clouds expected across our CWA heading into the overnight period, radiational cooling will help cool nighttime temperatures only into the low 60s west of I-55.
225 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High pressure will keep us dry with above normal temperatures through this weekend. High pressure at the surface and aloft to remain in the general vicinity into Thursday. Lows tonight will be in the 40s for most except 50s in the higher ridges.
Under record-breakingly strong mid-level high pressure, we do not stand a chance of generating any showers, despite fairly robust easterly low-level flow.
1218 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 (Today through Thursday) 500 mb low pressure over northwest Mexico will gradually work northeast into the Great Lakes region and degrade into a trough, as 500 mb high pressure over the northeast Gulf of Mexico lingers in that location and becomes elongated.
The upper-level trough, which is driving this line of heavy rain will start to lift out to the northeast tonight. The upper low will depart the area by tomorrow morning, which should bring rain chances to an end for most of the area.
Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday behind this morning's convection. As the upper-level trough translates east tonight, we see the return of quasi-zonal flow across the southern Great Plains. Temperatures fall into the 50s tonight under mostly clear skies behind the exiting trough.
The high risk of Rip Currents will continue with surf near 6 feet. A similar story continues this morning and throughout the day today as a ridge of high pressure associated with a 1029mb high continues its grip on our weather.
229 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High pressure promotes quiet and unseasonably mild weather through Thursday.
(This afternoon through Thursday) The dominant upper level ridging continues across southeastern US and does not show any signs of weakening much the remainder of this week. Temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid-80s this afternoon with overnight lows dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s. Only exception will be slightly warmer lows along the east coast due to warm Atlantic waters and breezy overnight winds. Temperatures reaching the mid 80s with slightly warmer temps in SW FL.
(This evening through Thursday night) Drier air aloft is intruding over majority of the Panhandles this afternoon ahead of an approaching upper level low. As lift from the low arrives, there's a slight chance (20-30%) there could be some additional showery/convective development in the southeast as we head towards the evening. Later this evening, there could be some wrap around moisture behind the low that may have enough energy to produce weak showers over E New Mexico, but expect any of this activity to dissipate as/before it reaches the western Panhandles. Clearing skies and warming 850mb temps will also help afternoon highs rise into the low to mid 80s.
357 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High pressure near the Mid Atlantic States will continue to bring mild weather to eastern New York and western New England into the first half of the weekend.
Highs today look to top out in the mid-70s to near 80, and are forecast to be just a degree or two warmer on Thursday as dewpoints continue to surge back into the 60s.
/AJP (Now through Thursday) Surface analysis places an expansive area of high pressure centered in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic, slowly sliding southeastward towards the western Atlantic. With the exception of these coastal sites, ample solar insolation has allowed temperatures to already reach in the mid to upper 70s at most locations, well on their way to their advertised highs in the lower 80s.
205 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High pressure promotes quiet and unseasonably mild weather through Thursday. Temps have risen near or perhaps a bit above the forecast highs, and humidity values have dropped as expected, with higher elevations and especially the highest ridgetops bottoming out in the teens on RH values. Clouds will likely remain broken to overcast into tomorrow, but with a warmer start and SW'ly breezes developing again, we can expect another mild day with highs in the 70s at lower elevations and 60s in the mountains. It should remain rain-free, however, as the low levels and especially mid levels should remain quite dry.
The status quo continues with high pressure in the Mid Atlantic states and tight pressure gradient over the area bringing gusty east to northeast winds through the afternoon and evening hours.
A closed upper low currently spinning over the Desert Southwest will open up and lift northeastward into the Upper Midwest on Thursday. With a strong ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast building northward, think the bulk of the moisture associated with the approaching wave will remain W/NW of central Illinois tonight. It will be another breezy and very warm day before the rain arrives, with highs ranging from the lower 70s west of the Illinois River.
A freezing rain/light snow mix has been producing icy conditions along the I-94 corridor this morning and into the afternoon. The Latest RAP mesoanalysis over Prairie, Dawson, and Wibaux Counties shows 850mb temps already dropping to below freezing as cold air advection moves in from the north/northeast.
Sub-freezing overnight temperatures will be here through the upcoming weekend.
The 12Z HRRR run has a good representation of this and the ongoing mixed precipitation/freezing rain/drizzle near the I-94 corridor. The 00Z HREF also suggests that this area of freezing rain/ice along the I-94 corridor through 6-8pm tonight. A mix with freezing rain today along the I-94 corridor today remains a concern due to uncertainty in the extent of a warm nose extending into the 850-700 mb layer there.
802 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High pressure will modify while extending across the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through the end of the week. Esely flow around the base of the mid-level ridge has led to the development of scattered stratocu over our southern Coastal Plain areas. The mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico will largely remain anchored on Thursday setting up similar dry and warming temperatures. However, a bit more cirrus will likely spill across our area during the day as the mid-level ridge starts to shunt a little further south compared to Wednesday. Increasing subsidence under high pressure will promote another dry day. Overnight fog and stratus will once again be favored for those south and east of Raleigh, as overnight lows dip into the lower 50s.
Sub-freezing overnight temperatures will be here through the upcoming weekend. Tonight through Thursday night: Expectation is many of the highlights will be ended this evening with the exception of the fairly recently issued winter weather advisory for the Camas Prairie, Idaho and Washington Palouse and Lewiston area along with lower Garfield and Asotin counties which has a winter weather advisory in effect from 11 pm this evening to 1 pm Thursday.
Today's temperatures started in the lows 30s to low 40s and only warmed to the low 40s east side with low 50s west side this afternoon.
906 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High pressure will keep us dry with above normal temperatures through this weekend. High pressure at the surface and aloft to remain in the general vicinity into Thursday. Lows tonight will be in the 40s for most except 50s in the higher ridges.
Mild low temperatures along the coast tonight, only dropping to near 70 degrees, with inland lows in the lower to upper 60s. High pressure to the north of us will maintain a mild northeasterly flow across the Forecast Area advecting low cloudiness from off the ocean.
938 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High pressure near the Mid Atlantic States will continue to bring mild weather to eastern New York and western New England into the first half of the weekend.
A Pacific Northwest storm system will cross northern Utah late tonight into Thursday, bringing through a strong cold front. A colder but drier system will follow for the weekend, with high pressure returning thereafter.
Latest hi-res CAM guidance now holds on to the shower and isolated thunder activity in the southwestern Texas Panhandle after sunset underneath the core of the upper low. Water vapor imagery currently shows the center of the upper level low over eastern NM. The low is expected to track across the FA tonight keeping the upper-level lift in place over the region through this evening before it quickly tracks into the Central Plains tomorrow morning.
732 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High pressure across the Carolinas will continue to provide warm southwesterly flow and above normal temperatures through the remainder of the workweek.
Look for gusty southwest winds tomorrow afternoon ahead of the cold front moving in from the northwest late in afternoon.
905 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 00Z upper air analysis places an upper-level ridge centered off the Florida Gulf Coast while an upper-level low is located near the Sonora/Chihuahua Mexican provinces. Meanwhile, 00Z upper air soundings continue to indicate a substantial amount of dry air present over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Strong ridging aloft over the northern Gulf extends to the surface over the Carolinas this afternoon.
We will see a concentrated area of rain moving through late tonight and tomorrow morning especially over Central Lower Michigan near and north of a surface warm front.
947 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High pressure across the Carolinas will continue to provide warm southwesterly flow and above normal temperatures through the remainder of the workweek.
Added lower-end POPs across much of the CWA for this evening with a few streamer showers developing in the low level southeasterly flow.
729 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High pressure near the Mid Atlantic States will continue to bring mild weather to eastern New York and western New England into the first half of the weekend.
With high pressure to the north of Florida, breezy easterly winds will continue for the rest of the week, with an easterly surge enhancing wind speeds each evening.
626 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 (This evening through Thursday) High pressure will remain to the east of the state with south to southeasterly flow through the short term.
303 PM PDT Wed Oct 25 2023 A trough of low pressure will move east across Central California tonight resulting in a chance of rain and high elevation snow for the Sierra Nevada. An upper low is spinning over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon with an associated trough over northern California. Snow amounts up to 6 inches are conceivable across the higher elevations of Yosemite NP.
624 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 (This evening through Thursday Night) Despite drier air aloft due to the influence of the ridge to our east, deep low level Gulf moisture continues to filter in this afternoon.
520 PM MDT Wed Oct 25 2023 Current upper air analysis shows split flow, with an upper trough over the southern plains, as well as a closed low over the PAC NW region, with southwest flow over the forecast area. At the surface, warm front sits over southwestern SD, but that is quickly followed by a cold front currently over our northeastern WY counties this afternoon, that will slowly slide east through the rest of our area today. Temperatures east of the cold front have reached into the mid 40s to mid 50s, while areas behind the front in NE WY have quickly dropped into the 30s. There is a small chance for brief freezing rain overnight in far northwest SD, however given the current model soundings and surface temperatures, more than likely will see a rain/snow transition.
08 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Thursday) High pressure will remain to the east of the state with south to southeasterly flow through the short term.
Despite the strong anticyclone dominance and a shut down inversion based slightly below 800 mb, fields of low topped showers have sprung up across the forecast area. A robust ridge across the southeast will maintain strong east northeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
A quick adjustment to the lows was made to the forecast.
615 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) Drier air aloft is intruding over majority of the Panhandles this afternoon ahead of an approaching upper level low. As lift from the low arrives, there's a slight chance (20-30%) there could be some additional showery/convective development in the southeast as we head towards the evening. Later this evening, there could be some wrap around moisture behind the low that may have enough energy to produce weak showers over E New Mexico, but expect any of this activity to dissipate as/before it reaches the western Panhandles. Clearing skies and warming 850mb temps will also help afternoon highs rise into the low to mid 80s.
Light showers and clouds will dissipate this evening, and that will be followed by cold freezing temperatures across interior valleys tonight.
A cold front moved through our Idaho zones late this afternoon and evening with a swath of rain and snow.
A trough of low pressure will move east across Central California tonight, resulting in a chance of rain and high elevation snow. An upper low is spinning over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon with an associated trough over northern California. Snow amounts up to 6 inches are conceivable across the higher elevations of Yosemite NP.
(Today through Friday) High pressure sliding to our northeast will continue to provide southeasterly flow into the region. A front will try to approach the area but will be halted by the ridge in place, over the Eastern CONUS Lows, and never make it into the area during the short term. There should be more in the clouds over the next few days during the afternoons, so temperatures will remain around the same, albeit much warmer than normal.
Meanwhile, in the lower Snake River plain, the wind is very nearly at Wind Advisory levels, and so a Lake Wind Advisory for the American Falls Reservoir has been issued. The cold front producing the precipitation and wind will bring in a cold air mass, and temperatures will warm very little, mainly staying in the 40s for the Snake River plain elevations. This, in turn, makes it harder to warm back to around 40 at the lower elevations with the cold start.
Thus, most of southeast Michigan should be solidly in the warm sector this afternoon, supporting temperatures back into the low to mid 70s based off 925 MB temps reaching up 18 C. And with the mid level drying occuring over southeast Michigan Friday morning, assuming some breaks develop in the low clouds ahead of the approaching cold front during the day, it does appear max temperatures will rise well into the 70s. The cold front is on track to move through Friday evening, and with the low level convergence and surface based capes around 500 J/kg, convective showers/isolated thunderstorms are likely.
Look for gusty southwest winds tomorrow afternoon ahead of the cold front moving in from the northwest late in afternoon. Look for temperatures to be slightly cooler Thursday than today with increased clouds limiting diurnal heating. Behind the cold front temperatures will drop 20 degrees across the northern areas bringing the first hard freeze to the Uinta Basin.
The first cold front will move into northwestern Oklahoma after midnight and likely move through the northwestern one-third of the forecast area by 12Z.
2) A strong cold front will move through the area on Friday.
(Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough moving east across the TX Panhandle. Ample moisture and lift ahead of the trough axis continues to bring bands of showers and isolated storms to the Northwest Hill Country and parts of the Heartland region. As the trough continues to push east, the rainfall should move east of our forecast area by sunrise today, ending the flash flood threat. With the decrease of clouds through the day today, expect a warmer day with highs in the low to mid 80s. Tonight, continued southerly flow in the low levels will result in moisture and low clouds moving back into the region tonight, so expect mild lows in the upper 60s.
A 5h ridge will remain positioned over the central Gulf of Mexico into the GA and the Carolinas. Highs will once again reach the lower 80s for most valley locations, with middle to upper 70s atop the higher plateaus/mountains.
Gulf moisture will return overnight making low clouds and fog a good possibility for locations mainly east of the higher terrain. Northern portions of the Basin will see slightly cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s while 80s are still expected elsewhere.
(Today through Friday Night ) An upper level high is over the southeast U. with an upper low over the Plains. The upper low will move into the Great Lakes tonight. Another upper trough will enter the northern U. Friday night as the upper high remains strong over the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure continues over the area and southwest flow continues to bring moisture into western Arkansas. A cold front in the Plains is poised to move south toward Arkansas.
439 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Strong high pressure will remain anchored over the forecast area into this weekend generating above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
(Now through Thursday) Surface analysis places an expansive area of high pressure centered in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic slowly sliding southeastward towards the western Atlantic. With the exception of these coastal sites, ample solar insolation has allowed temperatures to already reach in the mid to upper 70s at most locations, well on their way to their advertised highs in the lower 80s.
Mild low temperatures along the coast tonight, only dropping to near 70 degrees, with inland lows in the lower to upper 60s. High pressure to the north of us will maintain a mild northeasterly flow across the Forecast Area advecting low cloudiness from off the ocean. Above normal temperatures are expected as the high pressure remains over the area. Temperature Highs will reside mainly in the low 80s, with temperature lows in the low/mid 60s for inland areas and the upper 60s for coastal locations.
Additionally, expect lee side trough to redevelop to our northwest as the next upper wave advances over the Rockies, leading to breezy downslope winds at the surface in our forecast area. Tomorrow, first in our round of two cold fronts looks to arrive early in the day. Available moisture with this cold front appears limited, so expect mostly cloudy skies by the afternoon.
Above average temperatures will also remain as an upper level ridge overhead strengthens. Expect high temperatures to climb into mid 80s on Thursday after a mild start with low temperatures in the low 60s. (Thursday night through Friday night) The upper ridge will barely budge during this period assuring a continuation of the rain-free period with above normal temperatures.
409 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 High pressure continues across the region at the surface and aloft with NE/E winds increasing and becoming gusty in the afternoon.
Our area of high pressure will shift slightly further east today, providing an increase in southwest flow compared to yesterday.
Sub-freezing overnight temperatures likely with the potential for frozen precipitation.
1221 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Latest hi-res CAM guidance now holds on to the shower and isolated thunder activity in the southwestern Texas Panhandle after sunset underneath the core of the upper low. Water vapor imagery currently shows the center of the upper level low over eastern NM. The low is expected to track across the FA tonight keeping the upper-level lift in place over the region through this evening before it quickly tracks into the Central Plains tomorrow morning.
The biggest concern of the forecast will be the potential for snow with a more organized system that accompanies a deep upper trough moving through on Friday.
255 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 High pressure extending from the mid Atlantic to the southeast U. High pressure at the surface and aloft will extend from the mid Atlantic to the southeast U. Although record highs will be safe (in the lower 80s), it will remain very warm for late October with highs in the 70s. The strong anomalous ridge to our southeast will begin to show signs of flattening as we head into the weekend. It will remain very warm overnight with lows in the lower 60s. On Friday, a large scale mid level trough will be digging southeast into the northern Plains. This will begin the process of suppressing strong ridge to our southeast. A slow moving cold front is likely to be approaching the area from the northwest on Friday night.