Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
215 PM PDT Wed Aug 9 2023 A cold front bringing light rain showers to the Inland Northwest today as well as breezy west winds will exit the area late this afternoon.
801 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread this evening ahead of low pressure. The low will exit Ohio early Thursday and a cold front will trail it in the afternoon, moving southeast and marking the end of any lingering showers. Considerable cloud cover lingers in the wake of the low and begins to scatter out from the northwest in the afternoon. High temperatures are expected to top out in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
A few showers will be possible Tonight, as a warm front lifts north across area.
Rain and thunderstorm activity will shift to the southeast early Thursday morning as a cold front clears the region. Dew point temperatures will remain on the sticky side, in the lower 70s.
/22 Through Thursday Early convection over far northern MS remained out of our CWA and temperatures reached the low-upper 90s this afternoon.
642 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) Mid-level high pressure will continue to dominate over Texas through the coming short term period.
703 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Through Thursday Early convection over far northern MS remained out of our CWA and temperatures reached the low-upper 90s this afternoon.
High pressure over the Great Basin will move to near the Four Corners today.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms tonight from west to east ahead of a cold front. Temperatures tomorrow are slightly cooler than today, but still near normal.
1056 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 A warm front will move northward warm front on Thursday.
640 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 A warm front will move northward warm front on Thursday.
540 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2023 A couple small showers popped up in southeast Lincoln County at mid day, but are now moving on their way with mostly sunny skies and relatively pleasant/cooler than normal summer temperatures across the forecast area.
A couple small showers popped up in southeast Lincoln County at mid day, but are now moving on their way with mostly sunny skies and relatively pleasant/cooler than normal summer temperatures across the forecast area.
707 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Satellite imagery shows approaching Pacific trof axis moving into ID, while at the surface a cold front is moving thru central MT (near Butte at 01z). Trof axis also lags the surface frontal passage by a few hours, so ascent is another inhibitor to the wind potential tonight. JKL Satellite imagery today shows the ridge over Montana ahead of a progressing trough that will push a cold front through our area tonight. While the frontal passage will occur during the overnight hours with limited shear and instability, the energy from the trough and decent mid-level frontogenesis will create enough ascent for showers and thunderstorms to sustain through the night. High temperatures will be slightly cooler Thursday in the mid to upper 80s.
901 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 A warm front will move into the area late tonight and expect moisture to increase.
The warm front now stretches from north MS down into Central AL just south of the CWA and into GA. It will then track along the warm front. The greatest threat for a tornado will be along and south of the warm front.
1003 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread this evening ahead of low pressure. The low will exit Ohio early Thursday and a cold front will trail it in the afternoon, moving southeast and marking the end of any lingering showers. Considerable cloud cover lingers in the wake of the low and begins to scatter out from the northwest in the afternoon. High temperatures are expected to top out in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
1048 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Weak high pressure will shift offshore tonight. An area of low pressure will quickly move through the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday, dragging a cold front through Eastern NC Thursday night, with an enhanced chance for severe thunderstorms on Thursday.
Given the low level shear/helicity values shown by NAM soundings, and low LCL heights, a tornado cannot be ruled out.
Temperatures remain cooler north of the front will temperatures in the southwest have warmed into the mid 80s. Upper level analysis places low over Ontario and ridge stretching from the Four Corners Region northward through central Montana, resulting in northwest flow over our area. Late tonight, aforementioned upper ridge will pass over as a rather stout short wave makes its entrance into western portions of our area, bringing additional shower/storm chances late overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the Mid- South today as a cold front drops south through the region.
1230 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023 High pressure crosses the region overnight through early Thursday. Low pressure will approach from the west later Thursday and lift across the area Thursday night into Friday.
The lowest of the clouds will lift after sunrise, but expecting that skies remain mostly cloudy through at least the early afternoon. Northwest flow aloft will remain prevalent across the Ohio Valley as the region remains wedged between strong ridging over the southwest US into Texas and a broad upper trough extends across much of the eastern half of Canada. Weak high pressure at the surface and subtle ridging aloft will be present Friday morning.
The highest totals were in the San Bernardino Mountains at Wrightwood with 0. A Rex Block will form along the West Coast this weekend with an upper high off the PacNW coast, and a closed low near Pt.
The forecast remains largely unchanged day to day due to high pressure continuing to dominate over the region.
Temperatures today should be below normal, with the area squarely on the north side of the cold front.
PWs have risen above 2" causing trigger temps to fall to the lower 90s instead of the near or at 100F that we were having before. Conditions also show where Friday should get 100+F at several locations, so only minor changes to the high temps will be done.
The upper flow will steer a drier wnwly pattern that keeps us devoid of pops thru Friday, with even a hint of a ridging buckle in the H5 pattern as the Gulf High aloft strengthens and ridges into the Mississippi Valley. This occurs as the Gulf High aloft retrogrades over Texas, allowing a more active nwly flow pattern to top the ridge and bring waves of energy into/near the PAH FA.
130 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread this evening ahead of low pressure. The low will exit Ohio early Thursday and a cold front will trail it in the afternoon, moving southeast and marking the end of any lingering showers. Considerable cloud cover lingers in the wake of the low and begins to scatter out from the northwest in the afternoon. High temperatures are expected to top out in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
(Today through Friday Night) With a robust midlevel ridge continuing to dominate the weather pattern across the Southern CONUS, we continue to focus on the resulting excessive heat and fire weather risks as we close out the week.
904 PM PDT Wed Aug 9 2023 A cold front bringing light rain showers to the Inland Northwest today as well as breezy west winds will exit the area late this afternoon.
A couple small showers popped up in southeast Lincoln County at mid day, but are now moving on their way with mostly sunny skies and relatively pleasant/cooler than normal summer temperatures across the forecast area. Initially on the large scale, there is a low pressure area off the California coast which will bump up a ridge downstream into Colorado with weakening flog aloft.
Rain and thunderstorm activity will shift to the southeast early Thursday morning as a cold front clears the region. Dew point temperatures will remain on the sticky side, in the lower 70s. High temperatures will return to the upper 80s with very uncomfortable dew point temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Low temperatures will dip into the lower to middle 70s with similar dew point temperatures.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, a 500mb subtropical ridge remains in place across the western Gulf of Mexico and southern Texas. This front is expected to move back northward throughout the morning as the upper level ridge starts to build back into northwest Texas.
In summary, hot and rain-free conditions will continue across South Texas through the short-term period as high pressure dominates aloft.
Tonight and Thursday This afternoon's radar and satellite imagery showed isolated showers and thunderstorms moving southeast across east-central WI ahead of a surface cold front, with additional showers beginning to move into central and north-central WI behind the cold front. The showers and storms in east-central WI will gradually exit the region by early this evening as the cold front slowly drops further south. High pressure will bring dry conditions to the region for Thursday following the cold frontal passage.
1046 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Thanks to a ridge aloft and deep subsidence, continued quiet weather expected tonight into tomorrow with temperatures cooling to the 40s and 50s overnight. Friday, the ridge takes back over, resulting in warmer and drier conditions.
Friday afternoon and beyond, warmer high pressure ridging will take over again for a hot and dry weather pattern.
1233 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 (The rest of tonight) A compact upper level low with an associated surface front is currently pushing into northeast OK. Behind the cold front, some low level drying and cooling will be observed.
222 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023 A warm front will move into the area late tonight and expect moisture to increase. Mid level short wave trough moving east across TN/AL this evening, will move through SC/east central GA overnight. Radar showing convection ahead of the short wave trough in north GA. Temperatures tonight will likely be slow to fall once the clouds build in with forecast lows in the lower to mid 70s.
139 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low in Ontario which moves slowly southeast through 12z Fri. This will keep an upper level trough over the area through tonight.
1146 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) Mid-level high pressure will continue to dominate over Texas through the coming short term period.
Tonight, high pressure will help skies to try to clear as winds calm.
(Today and tonight) A bit quieter (and ever so slightly cooler) today behind the cold front.
The Keys will remain on the southern periphery of sprawling high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward to the Florida Peninsula.
The convection should continue for the next few hours, and gradually weaken as ridging aloft moves into the region from the west. The ridge, along with a northward moving warm front will bring increasing heat and humidity into the CWA with highs reaching the 80s and low 90s. The warm front may stall along the ND/SD border later this afternoon, and may become a focal point for convection. A cold front sliding eastward across the region after 18Z should be the main focal point for convection. Low level wind shear will be stronger along the warm front over northeastern SD, where another tornado threat may occur. Over our region, flat ridging aloft will allow for dry conditions Fri-Sat.
Looking at model and ACARS soundings, the low levels remain stable after the early round of showers and storms. The activity has been progressive in nature, so widespread flooding is not expected, but some of the low-lying areas could experience some ponding.
With plenty of clouds and rain chances, high temperatures today should be limited to the low/mid 80s.
1227 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 (This evening through Friday) An upper ridge continues over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon with an upper trough over the Midwest. A warm front is located in south Arkansas. Low pressure will move along this front tonight and help to destabilize the atmosphere further.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Despite seasonally normal 500mb heights of around 592dam, 850mb temperatures remain in the lower 30C range sending highs across much of the area well above 100 degrees. This is largely due to a flat ridge axis that extends south of the CWA leaving much of the area in a dry and hot westerly mid and upper level flow.
Northwest winds will bring cooler and drier air into the area with high temperatures about five degrees cooler than yesterday. Some elevated showers or thunderstorms are possible in Central and North Central Wisconsin late tonight ahead of a warm front. An area of showers and thunderstorms will move across the region Friday as a result of warm advection in the low levels and a 50 knot jet at 500mb.
Upper level high pressure remains in the gulf with broad troughing over the Mississippi Valley.
951 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Periodic precipitation chances are expected today and into the weekend as the region remains within broad troughing centered over the Great Lakes. A prefrontal trough is currently progressing through the last of the forecast area today through noon. Dry advection and weak subsidence behind the exiting trough will result in a lull in convective activity during the early afternoon and act to slowly clear area cloud cover through the rest of the day. Slightly cooler than normal temperatures for lows and some subsidence in place across the area will assist in some fog/stratus development tonight into tomorrow morning.
Although, the HREF ensemble maximum hourly wind speeds shows winds only exceeding 30 mph for a brief period in very isolated areas across the Arco Desert/Mud Lake region and along the ridge tops of the central mountains. A closed low will form over California today and with a ridge just east over the four corners region, we could begin to see minimal monsoonal moisture working northward as early as Friday afternoon.
Breezy zonal flow aloft will set in across the region as yesterday's upper-level ridge departs and an upper wave passes through. Looking at temperatures today, things remain warm, with mid-90s over most of the plains and 80s over the higher terrain.
501 AM MDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Another calm night with the latest observations having mostly clear skies and overnight temperatures in the high-50s to high-60s for much of the area. However, cannot rule out some isolated cells making their way across the lower counties in the CWA. Tomorrow, another quiet day is expected, with upper level ridging building back across the region. Warm and dry conditions are expected, with 700mb temperatures climbing to 13-15C and surface temperatures in the mid to high-80s along and east of the I-25 corridor, with cooler temperatures to the west.
Current stratus deck will lift off in the next couple of hours given diurnal warming and subsequent BL mixing, leaving a shallow cu field during the afternoon as highs reach the low 80s. Tonight, high pressure will help skies to try to clear as winds calm.
On Friday, temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to middle 90s as ridging amplifies behind eastward progression of Thursday's disturbance. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the low to middle 60s.
With dense cloud cover, high temperatures will be relatively cooler as they are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s. This is roughly 5-10 degrees below-normal for this time of year (normal high temperatures are in the low 90s).
* The will be a chance for storms along a passing trough/front this afternoon/tonight. * The next best shot for more widespread thunderstorm coverage will come along and just ahead of a cold front late in the weekend.
616 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) Despite seasonally normal 500mb heights of around 592dam, 850mb temperatures remain in the lower 30C range sending highs across much of the area well above 100 degrees. This is largely due to a flat ridge axis that extends south of the CWA leaving much of the area in a dry and hot westerly mid and upper level flow.
Getting into Friday, an upper trough moving through southern Canada will help provide forcing for ascent over the area.
PoPs remain very similar to the previous forecast, with the highest rain chances focused from the Orlando metro and Cape Canaveral southward. (12Z TAFS) VCTS included this afternoon thru 00z for all sites except DAB/LEE, with the highest TSRA chances focused around the ECSB.
This low- end but non- zero threat is displayed by both the HREF and SREF, which show UH and calibrated severe thunderstorm probabilities respectively that align with the potential described here.
638 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 (Today through Friday Night) With a robust midlevel ridge continuing to dominate the weather pattern across the Southern CONUS, we continue to focus on the resulting excessive heat and fire weather risks as we close out the week.
Clouds will build this afternoon across central NV, with showers and thunderstorms reaching north to around the Highway 50 corridor by late this afternoon or early evening. Weak low pressure off the southern CA coast in combination with high pressure building over AZ/NM will result in southerly flow aloft across southern and central NV today. Moist unstable air will advect up into southern portions of the CWA late this morning, with showers and thunderstorms developing north to around the Highway 50 corridor through this afternoon.
554 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 (Today and tonight) A bit quieter (and ever so slightly cooler) today behind the cold front.
315 AM MDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Current METARs this morning display a few mid-level clouds developing around the higher elevations. An upper level trough axis sweeps throughout the Midwest. Either way, temperatures will be 5-10 degree warmer than yesterday.
305 AM MDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Another calm night with the latest observations having mostly clear skies and overnight temperatures in the high-50s to high-60s for much of the area. However, cannot rule out some isolated cells making their way across the lower counties in the CWA. Tomorrow, another quiet day is expected, with upper level ridging building back across the region. Warm and dry conditions are expected, with 700mb temperatures climbing to 13-15C and surface temperatures in the mid to high-80s along and east of the I-25 corridor, with cooler temperatures to the west.
Despite the stronger winds not coinciding with the areas of the lowest relative humidity, dry to critically dry fuels could promote the ignition of wildfires.
739 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Aviation - Isolated showers/storms today The cold front has dropped into northwest parts of the CWA and will likely remain there into the start of the day today. A cold front will be moving across the cwa during this time, aided by a couple of short waves.
459 AM MDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Cold front pushing showers ahead of it is moving across eastern Montana this morning.
632 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a 500mb subtropical ridge remains in place across the western Gulf of Mexico and southern Texas. This front is expected to move back northward throughout the morning as the upper level ridge starts to build back into northwest Texas.
653 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the Mid- South today as a cold front drops south through the region.
(Through Friday) High pressure continues to dominate with WNW flow aloft.
203 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Periodic precipitation chances are expected today and into the weekend as the region remains within broad troughing centered over the Great Lakes. A prefrontal trough is currently progressing through the last of the forecast area today through noon. Dry advection and weak subsidence behind the exiting trough will result in a lull in convective activity during the early afternoon and act to slowly clear area cloud cover through the rest of the day. Slightly cooler than normal temperatures for lows and some subsidence in place across the area will assist in some fog/stratus development tonight into tomorrow morning.
217 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023 A stray shower or storm is possible this afternoon as a cold front swings through. High temperatures crest at either side of 80 degrees today, but rise back into the low 80s for Friday. A weak cold front will continue to sag south into the area late this afternoon into this evening. This boundary stalls over the central CWA overnight, then begins to lift back north as a warm front later tonight into Friday as the low level flow backs southwesterly in response to a mid level impulse ejecting east into the Upper Midwest.
1239 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 (Today through Friday Night) With a robust midlevel ridge continuing to dominate the weather pattern across the Southern CONUS, we continue to focus on the resulting excessive heat and fire weather risks as we close out the week.
This pattern is providing sufficient momentum over the Rockies to sustain weak surface lee troughing spread out across the northern and central plains.
Weak high pressure overhead today will move east tonight into Friday.
1250 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a 500mb subtropical ridge remains in place across the western Gulf of Mexico and southern Texas. This front is expected to move back northward throughout the morning as the upper level ridge starts to build back into northwest Texas.
Some changes for Friday as the westerly flow weakens a bit with some weak ridging moving into Western Colorado.
A weak cold front moved through earlier this morning. Models continue to show an upper level low form over California today with a ridge just east of this low, over the four corners region.
1147 AM MDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Another calm night with the latest observations having mostly clear skies and overnight temperatures in the high-50s to high-60s for much of the area. However, cannot rule out some isolated cells making their way across the lower counties in the CWA. Tomorrow, another quiet day is expected, with upper level ridging building back across the region. Warm and dry conditions are expected, with 700mb temperatures climbing to 13-15C and surface temperatures in the mid to high-80s along and east of the I-25 corridor, with cooler temperatures to the west.
140 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Periodic precipitation chances are expected today and into the weekend as the region remains within broad troughing centered over the Great Lakes. A prefrontal trough is currently progressing through the last of the forecast area today through noon. Dry advection and weak subsidence behind the exiting trough will result in a lull in convective activity during the early afternoon and act to slowly clear area cloud cover through the rest of the day. Slightly cooler than normal temperatures for lows and some subsidence in place across the area will assist in some fog/stratus development tonight into tomorrow morning.
Additionally, Td's and associated RH values have increased over the higher terrain. Showers and scattered storms will continue, mainly over the higher terrain areas, through the afternoon and early evening hours.
12Z model suite shows the persistent upper heat ridge over Texas will build northward tomorrow, with 500mb heights rising several decameters during the day. This will lead to a much warmer day than today, with highs reaching well into the 80s and low 90s.
Winds are generally out of the south or southeast, except west of a cold front that is beginning to push east river. West of this cold front, winds are switching around and blowing out of the northwest. The second area of concern is along a weak cold front/surface trof that is about to push east of the Missouri River valley. Along with an initial large hail threat, there is a low probability risk of a tornado or two across the low to mid-level WAA zone of ascent over the northeastern forecast zones. So, will have to monitor things if any storms end up developing further east in that zone of WAA/along the warm front over northeast South Dakota, out ahead of the cold-frontal forced storms that are expected to be developing between the Missouri and James River valleys.