Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Evening radar imagery shows echoes persisting in Idaho north of the Snake Basin under upper trough over the area. The trough extends to a weakening upper low near San Francisco. Northwest surface winds will increase Thursday afternoon as the low center shifts to eastern Idaho.
738 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2023 Colder air will arrive behind a cold front this evening, along with a few showers. After a dry period on Thursday, a stronger low pressure system will approach from the west on Thursday.
701 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023 High pressure aloft will permit dry weather through Thursday.
(Tonight) The evening satellite imagery indicates an extensive AC shield over much of E TX/SE OK/SW AR and portions of NW LA, riding atop H700-500 ridging in place from the Gulf of MX N into Srn AR. Sfc obs also indicate a NE expansion of the lower cu cigs over SE TX this evening, indicative of the expanding H850 moisture across this area, with the short term progs suggesting that this lyr of low level moisture will shift NE into much of E TX/SE OK overnight.
A strong upper level trough will pass across the high plains Thursday evening. The high wind watch for extreme southwestern Kansas has been upgraded to a warning.
High pressure is scooting off to the northeast, which will allow winds to turn out of the south later today. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
420 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 High pressure will continue to build into the area behind a cold front today. Some cooler and drier air will be in place today, but quickly moderate by the weekend as another front approaches the state.
1208 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) A weak upper ridge sits across West Texas this afternoon providing clear skies and pleasant weather. A deep upper low over the West Coast will move east over the next 48 hours reaching the Great Plains on Friday. The polar jet is located on the southern periphery of the low and will be located over southern New Mexico and the South Plains Thursday into early Friday.
There is no change in the short-term forecast; a cold front will backdoor its way through the island chain and coastal waters today. The boundary will increase low-level moisture and lift due to speed convergence in the low levels of the atmosphere, which is divulged on the GFS soundings. By this afternoon, winds will freshen to 15 to 20 mph from the northeast to east as a high pressure ridge from the southeast dives into the area.
Today: Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a deepening trough entering the northern California coastal region with a slight ridge ahead of it and zonal mid/upper flow for the remainder of the CONUS. Drilling down to the surface, a stalled-out cold front lies just to the south across northern Kansas while east-northeasterly winds at the surface continue with stray gusts to 25 mph. Thursday and Friday The main focus for the forecast period comes courtesy of the aforementioned trough to the west, affecting the area with thunderstorms, very strong winds, and even snow as it exits the area. This cooler air will also transition rain in northeast Nebraska to snow, which could go along with the 50+ mph winds and heavily reduce visibilities where snowfall is anticipated to occur (near the Nebraska/South Dakota border).
08 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Thursday) High pressure over the southeast will slowly move east through the short term. Flow will transition to the south and southwest overnight as the high moves across the state. Warmer air and moisture will begin to advect into the region with this flow. With high pressure and southerly flow. dry weather and temperatures in the low to mid 70s will be expected Thursday.
1218 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 (This evening through Friday) To begin the period, high pressure begins to slide to the east as the next weather system approaches the area. A strong low pressure system will move through the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region. High pressure then takes back over for the weekend as the storm system tracks away from the area. While I think much of the state could see a strong line of storms push through during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday, being that the parent low pressure system could be located over IA and northern IL.
409 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 High pressure will be in control of the weather across the forecast area today into Friday.
An impressive low pressure system will bring a range of impactful weather to the region over the next couple of days. Strong southerly flow will draw warmer air into the region ahead of the approaching system today. Winds will shift to the west/northwest behind the low Friday morning. A few hundred to around 1000 J/kg of instability will be available ahead of the cold front across the state of Iowa Friday.
Upper analysis shows an upper ridge crossing the great plains ahead of an upper low/trough currently crossing the California coast. The surface cold front will move back eastward as a warm front tonight into early Thursday. Warmer temperatures will occur on Thursday over most of the forecast area, except possibly over far northwestern South Dakota, dependent on how far north the front moves during the day on Thursday. For Thursday afternoon through Friday, the upper trough to the west will cross the region with an upper low developing and traveling eastward along the SD/NEB border. The weekend looks pleasant as an upper/thermal ridge builds into northern plains.
(Today through Friday) High pressure will remain in place today but begin to shift to the east this afternoon and evening. At the same time an upper level warm front will lift northward tonight and produce showers and storms along the Delta region of the MS river. The majority of rain will stay to the north of Central Alabama tonight through Friday due to upper ridging ahead of upstream trough. As we work into Friday afternoon, the ridge remains strong.
248 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023 08z surface analysis had developing warm front from southwest MT into eastern WY, a reflection of increasing low level warm air advection ahead of upper trough over the Rockies per water vapour. Some high clouds over the CWA, but light precipitation may develop early this morning over far northeast WY/northwest SD along warm front. Main forecast concern is Rockies upper trough. Today, warm front moves east/southeast, but doesn't look as strong as previously thought so have lowered highs for today. Some light precipitation expected ahead of upper low mainly this afternoon. Tonight through Friday, Rockies upper trough shifts eastward with upper low forming over northern WY, moving across far southern SD late tonight into Friday.
A warmer day is expected Thursday with afternoon high temperatures in the 70s. By Friday, our severe weather chances increase as an upper level trough brings the chance for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and small hail.
(Today through Friday Night ) Mid-level ridge axis will expand east over the area today in advance of a trough expected to rapidly intensify over the Central Plains/Mid-MS Valley Friday. Sfc ridging currently situated over the Great Lakes is expected to shift southeastward throughout the day. With warm, moist air in place and an approaching cold front, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the state from Friday afternoon through late Friday evening.
307 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 High pressure will be in control of the weather across the forecast area today through Friday.
Temperatures will cool down, but still expect above freezing conditions to develop below 6000ft elevation and a change to rain that should wash much of the snow away.
925 PM PDT Wed Mar 29 2023 A large area of low pressure will continue to move southward along the coast of California through Thursday, leading to cold temperatures, gusty winds and periods of rain and mountain snow. Friday into the weekend will feature warmer and drier weather with less wind.
Key points: * Windy for most of the period from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening * Severe storms possible late Thursday night into midday Friday * Extreme fire weather possible Friday The bulk of the attention on this forecast is on Thursday through Friday night as an anomalously-deep upper trough meets with increasing moisture late Thursday then drags in dry air Friday. 850 mb winds increase through the day, with 50-65 knot winds by late afternoon and continuing well into the evening as the upper trough moves across the central Rockies. The Pacific cold front/dryline still looks to push through the area from late Thursday night through early afternoon Friday. The strong south winds and lower cloud should keep the boundary layer well mixed overnight into Friday morning with the cap eroding as the upper trough moves in.
1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 (Tonight) The evening satellite imagery indicates an extensive AC shield over much of E TX/SE OK/SW AR and portions of NW LA, riding atop H700-500 ridging in place from the Gulf of MX N into Srn AR. Sfc obs also indicate a NE expansion of the lower cu cigs over SE TX this evening, indicative of the expanding H850 moisture across this area, with the short term progs suggesting that this lyr of low level moisture will shift NE into much of E TX/SE OK overnight.
332 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 A cold front dipping into the Mid Atlantic region today weakens and dissipates keeping the weather dry today and tonight. The high over the Ohio Valley behind the front will move offshore tonight,leading to increasing moisture and temperatures through Friday.
Strong, veering winds in the low-levels look to yield significant storm relative helicity as well. MJ High pressure aloft will permit dry weather through Thursday. A low pressure system and associated frontal boundaries will bring severe weather chances back to the forecast on Friday.
first thing is first, however, and we still have high pressure in close proximity.
(Today) Upper level ridging will shift east into the TN valley this afternoon as southerly flow begins to develop.
1050 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023 (Rest of tonight) High pressure will continue to reinforce a cooler and dry airmass over the area.
A strong upper level trough will pass across the high plains Thursday evening. The high wind watch for extreme southwestern Kansas has been upgraded to a warning. As the aforementioned upper level trough continues to move eastward and closes off on Friday, strong west to northwest winds are expected on the back side of the system across central and western Kansas, with gusts to 45 mph.
Overnight lows will fall into the mid 50s with some mid 40s across the highest elevation of northern GA.
330 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 High pressure over the Great Lakes will move to a position off the New England and mid Atlantic coasts by this evening. A low pressure system will deepen as it pivots east toward the western Great Lakes by Friday evening. As the low continues east across the Great Lakes Friday night, an associated cold front will push through our region, bringing another round of showers and storms.
CONS/NBM and ensembles depict mid-level ridging quickly following the FROPA, with high pressure expanding across much of the GOMEX and the peninsula. By Friday, the ridge expands into the western Atlantic, with enough drier air entraining to basically knock down POPs into single digits. Afternoon highs will hover in the low-mid 80s, while overnight lows will remain in the low 70s near the coasts, and mid-upper 60s inland.
522 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 (Today) Upper level ridging will shift east into the TN valley this afternoon as southerly flow begins to develop.
541 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 (Today through Friday) High pressure will remain in place today but begin to shift to the east this afternoon and evening. At the same time an upper level warm front will lift northward tonight and produce showers and storms along the Delta region of the MS river. The majority of rain will stay to the north of Central Alabama tonight through Friday due to upper ridging ahead of upstream trough. As we work into Friday afternoon, the ridge remains strong.
(Rest of Today) Sunny skies and some developing warm air advection has allowed temperatures to climb from the lower to mid 30s in Tennessee into the mid 50s.
As the day progresses into afternoon, the eastward translation of the mid level trough should lower the base of the dry mixed air aloft, and put a pause on a narrow window of opportunity for organized mesoscale island convective depth (and a small, not- out-of-the-question opportunity for thunder). An area of high pressure will dive in behind the front, resulting in freshening northeast to east today through Friday night.
High pressure will continue to build into the area behind a cold front today. Some cooler and drier air will be in place today, but quickly moderate by the weekend as another front approaches the state.
530 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023 08z surface analysis had developing warm front from southwest MT into eastern WY, a reflection of increasing low level warm air advection ahead of upper trough over the Rockies per water vapour. Some high clouds over the CWA, but light precipitation may develop early this morning over far northeast WY/northwest SD along warm front. Main forecast concern is Rockies upper trough. Today, warm front moves east/southeast, but doesn't look as strong as previously thought so have lowered highs for today. Some light precipitation expected ahead of upper low mainly this afternoon. Tonight through Friday, Rockies upper trough shifts eastward with upper low forming over northern WY, moving across far southern SD late tonight into Friday.
Shower coverage is increasing early this morning as moisture wraps around a low pressure circulation, currently centered near Challis. This low will track to the northeast and wrap showers into central Idaho, and west-central and southwest Montana for most of today.
401 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Today and Tonight: As an upper ridge builds, and high pressure moves to the east, winds will begin to turn back out of the south, which will allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s across the area Thursday.
Satellite imagery shows the low continuing to spin offshore central California as it moves southeast toward SoCal. Shower chances are expected to taper off in the Sierra today as the trough shifts further to the southeast, though may see some brief redevelopment of isolated showers across much of the region late this afternoon and early this evening as the backside of the trough moves across NorCal.
533 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Today and Tonight: As an upper ridge builds, and high pressure moves to the east, winds will begin to turn back out of the south, which will allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s across the area Thursday.
Conditions improve on Friday into the weekend, becoming drier and warmer. For the highest elevations above 8000 feet, 8-12 inches is expected.
Only update this morning was to include the remaining Treasure Coast counties into the High Risk of rip currents. As the ridge moves further into the Atlantic tonight, winds will become ESE overnight. Highs in the lower 80s across most of the area. However, cooler ocean waters should keep the Volusia County coast in the mid to upper 70s.
658 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 A warmer day is expected Thursday with afternoon high temperatures in the 70s. By Friday, our severe weather chances increase as an upper level trough brings the chance for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and small hail.
629 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 (Today through Friday Night ) Mid-level ridge axis will expand east over the area today in advance of a trough expected to rapidly intensify over the Central Plains/Mid-MS Valley Friday. Sfc ridging currently situated over the Great Lakes is expected to shift southeastward throughout the day. With warm, moist air in place and an approaching cold front, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the state from Friday afternoon through late Friday evening.
636 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 High pressure over the Great Lakes will move to a position off the New England and mid Atlantic coasts by this evening. A low pressure system will deepen as it pivots east toward the western Great Lakes by Friday evening. As the low continues east across the Great Lakes Friday night, an associated cold front will push through our region, bringing another round of showers and storms.
1000 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 A cold front dipping into the Mid Atlantic region today weakens and dissipates keeping the weather dry today and tonight. The high over the Ohio Valley behind the front will move offshore tonight,leading to increasing moisture and temperatures through Friday.
739 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Dry weather can be expected today before rain returns Friday with a warm front.
1117 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 High pressure will be in control of the weather across the forecast area today into Friday.
1103 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 High pressure over the Great Lakes will move to a position off the New England and mid Atlantic coasts by this evening. A low pressure system will deepen as it pivots east toward the western Great Lakes by Friday evening. As the low continues east across the Great Lakes Friday night, an associated cold front will push through our region, bringing another round of showers and storms.
Unsettled weather and cool conditions will continue through the early evening as an upper low pressure system moves through the area.
1256 PM PDT Thu Mar 30 2023 An area of low pressure will rotate across the region, bringing weakening showers and isolated thunderstorms through early evening. As the system exits, we'll see drier and warmer weather into the weekend.
These showers may occasional cause snow covered conditions on passes with an inch or two of additional snow on Lolo Pass and for the higher elevations of north-central Idaho overnight. Warmer valley roadways should limit wintry impacts to a brief dusting at best after midnight in the lower elevations.
1215 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 A cold front dipping into the Mid Atlantic region today weakens and dissipates keeping the weather dry today and tonight. The high over the Ohio Valley behind the front will move offshore tonight,leading to increasing moisture and temperatures through Friday.
146 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 High pressure over the Great Lakes will move to a position off the New England and mid Atlantic coasts by this evening. A low pressure system will deepen as it pivots east toward the western Great Lakes by Friday evening. As the low continues east across the Great Lakes Friday night, an associated cold front will push through our region, bringing another round of showers and storms.
(The rest of today ) Moisture continues to increase in the lower layers up to about 750mb per OUN 12z sounding, with isolated showers developing as a result of warm advection this morning.
The passing cold front Friday evening will bring a wind shift to fire suppression efforts with winds gradually decreasing after sunset.
By Friday morning dynamic lift ahead of the upper level storm system may act to lift and cool/erode the capping inversion just about the time the 925-850mb winds veer and the low level moisture axis shifts east.
Top of the hour readings are in the low to mid 60s everywhere, with De Queen the coolest by far at 58.
Breezy WSW surface winds will ease after sunset but remain relatively elevated overnight as a strong trough associated with a potent upper low tracks east out of Wyoming into Nebraska overnight. The timing of the upper trough tomorrow morning with the onset of diurnal mixing has a window from mid morning tomorrow through mid- afternoon with the strongest winds gusting up to 60 MPH. High temperatures tomorrow will moderate back to around 70 on the Caprock as cooler mid-level air associated with the strong system to the north settles over the region.
There will be enough instability to result in an isolated thunderstorm or two, but overall thunderstorm potential will be suppressed due to a mid- level ridge building over the Florida. With the mid-level ridge taking precedence over the area for Friday, shower chances will be significantly lower tomorrow. For tomorrow, similar temperatures are expected but perhaps a couple degrees warmer.
A weak upper level trough will move across the region late today, bringing a chance of showers to portions of western Washington.
With the upper low moved well to the southeast of the region this morning, and an upper ridge offshore, today will see a relative calm between storms today into Friday.
High pressure will gradually shift east towards the coast resulting in southerly winds and moisture returning to the region. In response to increasing cloud cover, low temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s.
(Through Friday) Pleasant weather continues today under the influence of a ridge of high pressure, with temperatures climbing into the 70s for most this afternoon, with only some diurnal cumulus near the coast and St Johns River area. Northeast-east flow on the south side of the ridge today will keep temps a few degress cooler by the coast. A weak coastal trough may graze the Florida coast overnight before dissipating and moving north-northeastward through the day Friday, which will bring mainly a few more clouds to the coast and possibly a sprinkle or two in the morning.
Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures will continue today as an upper-level trough moves through the region.
314 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 With warmer air moving into the area, we'll see some elevated showers and thunderstorms possible tonight. Currently, an upper ridge exists over the Midwest with an upper trough over the western U. A warm front extends from CO eastward through the Central Plains and into central IL this afternoon. The upper low over the Rockies on early Friday will move east into the Plains states, with a wave rounding the base of the low right over IA/MO/IL late in the day. Temperatures will be quite warm again tomorrow, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s before crashing with the cold front Friday night. Winds are expected to be breezy from the south on Friday, and becoming strong from the west with the cold front Friday night.
215 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 High pressure and zonal upper level flow today will keep quiet weather into Friday, with rain beginning Friday afternoon.
1240 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 (Rest of Today) Sunny skies and some developing warm air advection has allowed temperatures to climb from the lower to mid 30s in Tennessee into the mid 50s.
1142 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023 08z surface analysis had developing warm front from southwest MT into eastern WY, a reflection of increasing low level warm air advection ahead of upper trough over the Rockies per water vapor. Some high clouds over the CWA, but light precipitation may develop early this morning over far northeast WY/northwest SD along warm front. Main forecast concern is Rockies upper trough. Today, warm front moves east/southeast, but doesn't look as strong as previously thought so have lowered highs for today. Some light precipitation expected ahead of upper low mainly this afternoon. Tonight through Friday, Rockies upper trough shifts eastward with upper low forming over northern WY, moving across far southern SD late tonight into Friday.
(This afternoon through Friday Night) High pressure has shifted to our east and this is allowing for the onset of some return southerly flow.
230 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 The overall synoptic pattern this afternoon features a northwest flow aloft over the region in response to troughing well upstream over the southwestern U. At the surface, high pressure to our north extends over the Florida peninsula, with a low-level easterly flow continuing across the local area.
Temperatures will be cooler behind the front Friday, with highs in the 60s west to near 70 at Medicine Lodge.
1226 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 (The rest of today ) Moisture continues to increase in the lower layers up to about 750mb per OUN 12z sounding, with isolated showers developing as a result of warm advection this morning.