Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
847 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 High pressure building across the Northern Rockies and Montana will bring dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures through the upcoming weekend.
602 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 (This afternoon through Friday Night) It's another fantastic day of low humidity (RH values are around ~30%), temperatures are in the high 70s, there's a nice northerly breeze, and a field of altocumulus and cirrus clouds paint the sky. Surface analysis shows a high pressure center over Missouri and we are certainly feeling the effects of that today. Friday looks more of the same as today with perhaps a bit less cloud cover as high pressure shifts closer to Middle Tennessee.
545 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 While it's been mostly cloudy over the higher terrain, the cloudiness hasn't progressed onto the Urban Corridor or eastern plains. This has allowed temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 70s. Water vapor satellite imagery showing a broad trough over Wyoming and Utah with a good circulation over southwest Wyoming. For Friday, the upper level trough will be over Colorado, but will be slowly weakening. The upper trough will move east the state Friday night with mostly dry conditions expected across the forecast area.
Cooler temperatures aloft with this trough overhead could result in some snow at the higher elevations above treeline. Drier air will start pushing in across the north as high pressure builds to the west and tries to exert its influence.
753 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Aviation Fair and dry in the short term under surface and upper ridging.
815 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Canadian high pressure will build into the region from the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Only made some minimal tweaks to hourly temperature and dewpoint grids, and overnight lows are still expected to range from the lower 50s to the lower 60s. Northerly flow over the region between Lee moving into the northern Atlantic and high pressure over the Great Lakes will gradually weaken as the high slips south.
530 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Upper low spins over Saskatchewan, dragging its trough across the northern plains. Under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures this afternoon are only in the 60s most places; south central SD (ahead of the cold front) has reached the lower 80s. Dry weather and a warming trend begin Friday, as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS.
A cold front is draped northeast to southwest from Roberts to Lyman counties this afternoon. Dry conditions are forecast for Friday with high pressure settling in Friday night.
839 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 High pressure building across the Northern Rockies and Montana will bring dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures through the upcoming weekend.
South of this boundary, instability is about 1000 to 2000 J/kg, with temperatures in the low 90s. North of the front, the instability is a bit higher, but temperatures are several degrees cooler in the mid 80s, which is lower than the Convective Temp of 91 degrees as indicated on the latest model sounding over San Angelo. However, a weak cold front is moving through the Big Country with more clouds and temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s. This differential heating aiding in destabilization this afternoon and starting to see a few storms develop in the warmer more unstable sector ahead of the front. Will carry the highest POPs mainly north of I-20. Highs on Friday may be a few degrees cooler than today, lower 80s across the Big Country to near 90 along I-10.
Cooler conditions are expected by next mid- week. High pressure currently located over the southern Oregon and northern California border continues to build into the region this evening and into Friday. Lows tonight are forecast to dip into the low 40s to mid 50s. High temps for Friday will reach the mid to upper 70s for most of the region with western portions of the CWA including northwest Nye, northern Lander and Eureka, and Humboldt counties reaching the low to mid 80s.
An upper ridge over the West Coast is allowing for ample warmth, with interior valleys in the low to upper 90s, with isolated low 100s. The ridge will begin to progress easterly on Friday, but temperatures will be similar to today. An upper low will approach from the west through the weekend. The low will usher in modest monsoonal moisture, which with the increased forcing and steepening lapse rates will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms across the interior mountains.
During than and tomorrow afternoon, PWATs are slatted to drop meaning notably less moisture for storms to work with for Friday as flow becomes more west/northwest with ridging developing over the region. Despite the lower rain chances, high temperatures will remain ~5 degrees below normal. Ridging will persist into the first part of the weekend, keeping more NWerly flow over the area. Later in the weekend and into the first part of next work week, troughing starts to develop to our west, bringing more SWerly flow to the area. By the middle of next work week we see the potential of another northern stream trough digging south into the western Conus.
(The rest of tonight) Latest surface analysis indicates high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, ridging into our area, effectively shunting the moist axis south and west of us.
Currently - High pressure over the eastern United States extends loosely into the Gulf of Mexico. Deep layered ridging is dominant across the area. Expect overnight lows in the lower 80s with dew points holding in the mid 70s. Weak ridging across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain light mostly northwest to northerly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
Temperatures will again climb a few degrees above climatological normals with afternoon highs around 90 to the lower 90s across west central Florida. Weak upper ridging remains east of Florida allowing for a quasi- zonal upper level pattern to continue over the Florida peninsula. Farther to the north, a closed upper low and associated troughing will move northeast through Quebec through the end of the week. This front will linger over northern Florida through the week with minor fluctuations north and south as areas of weak low pressure move eastward along this front.
552 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance High pressure will be the dominant weather feature through Friday night with dry, mild weather the rule.
This evening through Thursday The upper level trough will push through the remainder of the CWA to the east and southeast this afternoon with the surface boundary extending out of the area. An isolated stronger storm is possible east-southeast of Rock Springs late in the afternoon, as depicted by some of the higher resolution short term models. Otherwise, expect a bit cooler than average temperatures this afternoon and overnight into Friday. An upper level ridge will build strongly in from the south with increasing convergence aloft. A pattern change is expected by mid week, as a deep trough pushes in from western Canada that will likely bring much colder temperatures and some higher elevation snow.
Meanwhile, a weak upper level trough will move slowly across the area overnight. While it's been mostly cloudy over the higher terrain, the cloudiness hasn't progressed onto the Urban Corridor or eastern plains. This has allowed temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 70s. Water vapor satellite imagery showing a broad trough over Wyoming and Utah with a good circulation over southwest Wyoming. For Friday, the upper level trough will be over Colorado, but will be slowly weakening. The upper trough will move east the state Friday night with mostly dry conditions expected across the forecast area.
Key Messages: -A slow moving cold front will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms tonight.
211 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2023 High pressure will continue to bring dry weather with temperatures warming to above normal values for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
656 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) A persistent mid-level ridge will remain anchored across northern Mexico through the short term, sustaining near record to record high temperatures (above the century mark away from the coast) today and Friday.
726 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Canadian high pressure will build into the region from the Great Lakes region through the weekend. The afternoon surface analysis continues to show high pressure over the Great Lakes. These wind gusts should weaken as we get into the evening hours as the surface somewhat decouples from the low-level winds. Temperatures are currently in the upper 70s to near 80 in the N and W to the low to mid 80s in the SE. Other than some stirring of the wind from the NE, radiational cooling should favor lows in the low to middle 50s in outlying areas and upper 50s to near 60 in urban centers. Northerly flow over the region between Lee moving into the northern Atlantic and high pressure over the Great Lakes will gradually weaken as the high slips south.
A loose pressure gradient between Hurricane Lee, about 730 nm ESE of Savannah, GA, and high pressure over the U.
Given dry conditions with dewpoints holding in the 5-10 degree range, expect low temperatures to drop to the low to upper 60s across the area.
638 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Much of the central portion of the CONUS remains beneath a weak upper ridge, bracketed by upper lows over southern Saskatchewan and Quebec. The Mid-Mississippi Valley will remain under the influence of the high through much of tomorrow, keeping light north/east winds in place. Ample sun tomorrow should allow for the airmass to further moderate, likely pushing temperatures slightly warmer that what we're seeing today.
744 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 A deep area of high pressure will pass through the northern basin of Lake Huron and the Straits tonight to portions of Ontario Friday. This will support mainly clear skies overnight which will drop nighttime lows into the low 50s in urban Detroit and 40s elsewhere.
318 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 The large scale pattern in the short term will feature a ridge of high pressure situated over the eastern third of the CONUS. This ridge will keep dry and pleasant weather in place across eastern Kentucky today and tonight. This ridge will begin breaking down and moving off to the east late tonight into early Saturday morning, as a large trough of low pressure aloft begins moving our way out of the Great Plains. The rain will continue to gradually spread northward across the area late Saturday, as the southern trough pushes northward and the trough to our west continues moving off to the east. Tonights lows will be quite cool yet again, with min readings in the low to mid 50s expected for most locations around eastern Kentucky.
This will pull somewhat warmer temperatures into the DVN forecast area. Lows tonight in the upper 40s east to the lower 50s west. Details: Friday night and Saturday: Deepening long-wave trough arriving into the Midwest will provide large-scale ascent. This combined with a cold front and PWAT's near an inch will produce at least scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Highs Saturday in the lower to mid 70s.
334 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 High pressure through late Saturday.
1239 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) A persistent mid-level ridge will remain anchored across northern Mexico through the short term, sustaining near record to record high temperatures (above the century mark away from the coast) today and Friday.
High pressure will remain in control. High pressure will remain in control at the surface. These clouds will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than the previous night in the west where clouds will be thickest. A somewhat broad and plunging upper trough will steadily swing from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley. Unfortunately low-level high pressure across the Deep South should block any considerable Gulf moisture from being returned northward ahead of this wave.
The cold front will push further south and near the I-10 corridor this afternoon and evening, causing some slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon ranging in the 80s north of I-10, and near 90s along and south of I-10.
These showers and clouds are associated with an upper level trough moving through Canada into the Great Lakes. Enough vorticity on the backside of the trough is allowing for the development of these showers and clouds. There will be another chance for showers this afternoon and evening along the International Border and in Lake of the Woods where the synoptic forcing is strongest behind the trough. Some of the showers may move into the Highway 2 corridor, but those chances are low at this time. Daytime highs reach into the low to mid 60s.
Medium range models continue to show an upper level trough diving south out of Canada across the High Plains and digging as far south as the Gulf Coast.
Key Messages: - Slow moving cold front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms today. A cold front currently draped over northeast Nebraska kicked up a line of weak showers and thunderstorms overnight. The cold front is expected to continue to make its way southeast through the forecast area today, pushing showers and storms through the region as it moves. Temperatures will be limited to the low to mid 70s along and north of I-80.
With the drier air moving in, temperatures overnight tonight should be cooler than last night with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Current satellite shows the band of showers associated with the frontogenetical forcing from the cold front, and then clearing behind it. For the rest of today, Showers will continue to trek east associated with the cold front.
(Today through Saturday Night ) The Natural State rmnd under the control of high pressure that was centered ovr the Great Lakes Region this mrng. With less cloud cover expected today, high temps wl be a few degrees warmer than on Thu, ranging fm the mid 70s to the mid 80s. This wl allow a new upper trof and sfc CDFNT to apch the FA fm the NW.
1202 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 A small area of showers over central ND continues to track east, associated with a secondary cold front dropping through the forecast area. In addition to any precipitation chances, a trailing cold frontal boundary continues bringing a narrow corridor of visibility reducing near-surface smoke from the northwest to the southeast. Should winds go calm and skies fully clear out, the possibility of even cooler temperatures and frost development is greater than zero in some locations.
The island chain experienced overnight temperatures ranging from the low to mid 80s. Light to gentle northerly breezes will prevail through the end of this week due to Hurricane Lee passing east of the Bahamas and high pressure building over the area.
As of 230AM, Mobridge is the only station affected as viz is down to 5SM. We could see the return of near smoke behind the cold front, but much lower in concentration as the models indicates.
833 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Latest satellite imagery showed no clouds over the Pacific Northwest as high pressure is parked over the region. VFR conditions and winds less than 10 kts are in store for the next few days as high pressure remains over the western states.
221 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Clear and dry, with high pressure in control through the end of the week.
Ridging will gradually move east today as the next closed low to the west of California drifts closer to the coast. The main high center is north of the area over the PacNW with weakness lingering from the preceding trough.
Hi-res guidance supports a low chance for sprinkles with the upper trough axis passage this afternoon, but largely expect the latter part of the day to be dry for most sites northwest of a Spencer to Sioux City line. near and northwest of a Windom to Sioux Falls to Yankton line), cooler in the lower 70s near the Highway 20 corridor in Iowa/Nebraska.
Today and Saturday Not much to talk about weather-wise in the short term as high pressure will be in control across eastern Idaho. As H5 heights increase on Saturday as the ridge moves mostly overhead, expect daytime highs to be a bit warmer, likely topping out in the lower 80s in the valleys while remaining dry through the weekend.
1132 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance High pressure will be the dominant weather feature through Friday night with dry, mild weather the rule. Saturday night as mid level energy translates over the area ahead of a digging trof over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, we cannot rule out a few sprinkles of rain Saturday evening and night.
252 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 (Issued 252 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023) Today through Saturday: A warmer day is in store for the area today, with highs in the mid to upper 70s, as southwest winds advect warmer air into the region. Highs tomorrow will be a touch cooler given the increased cloud cover, with low to mid 70s expected.
155 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Clear and dry, with high pressure in control through the end of the week.
Temperatures look to remain mild with highs mainly in the low to middle 80s and lows in the middle 50s to middle 60s.
Weak ridging will bring slightly northwest flow aloft overnight maintaining dry conditions with skies expected to clear across most areas with the exception of possibly Deep East Texas.
A trough currently over the Rockies/Intermountain West is slowly making its way towards us and should usher in another cold front for the weekend.
1034 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Upper low spins over Saskatchewan, dragging its trough across the northern plains. Under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures this afternoon are only in the 60s most places; south central SD (ahead of the cold front) has reached the lower 80s. Dry weather and a warming trend begin Friday, as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS.
(Today and tonight) Stratus is expanding inland throughout the region and will impact all but the highest mountain ranges and the most interior of inland valley locations. An upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest starts migrating inland today, allowing a cutoff low currently located around 600 miles west-southwest of San Francisco to approach the state. High temperatures in the interior valleys will see temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, with the most interior locations seeing temperatures in the low 90s. Along the Bayshore, temperatures will rise to the low to mid 70s, while the Pacific coast will see temperatures in the 60s.
A closed upper low resides over Manitoba this morning with zonal flow present across the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front extends from eastern Minnesota southwest into far northwest Kansas. Chances for showers and an isolated thunderstorm increase through the morning hours for north central Kansas before the passage of the cold front brings better chances (30-40%) of showers and isolated storms to the entire area this evening and overnight. Conditions dry out and skies begin to clear by sunrise Saturday morning as a secondary cold front moves towards the forecast area. Daytime heating and steepening mid-level lapse rates will lead to MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg ahead of the southward advancing cold front. Large-scale ascent from a trough digging across the central CONUS along with lift along the front is expected to generate scattered convection Saturday afternoon and evening.
201 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Current surface map places cold front across eastern South Dakota into northern Nebraska. For today, upper low near Lake Winnipeg spins into the eastern Great Lakes with dry northwest flow across the forecast area. Models in good agreement with upper ridge building across the Northern Plains for the weekend, with high confidence in above average temperatures and dry weather.
Overnight lows are forecast in the low to middle 50s. A ridge will be moving into the central CONUS at the start of the week and this looks to be the main influence throughout the period. A weak trough will work to deamplify the ridge and fight for a more zonal flow, although a slight southwesterly component will still exist. The system that could break the pattern of warm and dry conditions will be a low pressure system that is showing up on long range guidance. Confidence for the timing and placement of this feature is very low, however it should bring cooler temperatures and some better chances at precipitation in the latter half of the week.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough will continue to carve southeastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. As previous forecasts have mentioned, it once again makes sense to go warmer than NBM for highs today. Most areas should be 1-2 degrees warmer than yesterday, resulting in highs solidly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Ample moisture and lift will also be found in the lower levels of the atmosphere leading to mostly cloudy skies through tomorrow night. Ensemble models continue to show the highest rainfall totals to be confined along the KS/OK border with lesser amounts as you head northward. Winds throughout the short term will generally be from a southerly direction through tonight, shifting to the north tomorrow as a weak cold front slides through the CWA.
246 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2023 More tranquil forecast in store the next several days as an H5 ridge builds across the western US.
Cooler temperatures aloft with this trough overhead could result in some snow at the higher elevations above treeline. Drier air will start pushing in across the north as high pressure builds to the west and tries to exert its influence. Temperatures today through Friday will continue to be below normal with highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal for the most part and even cooler in the high country. As previously mentioned, a ridge will be seated in place across the Intermountain West starting on Saturday and remain through the weekend. Thus, expect a fairly abrupt cutoff in precipitation chances moving from Friday into Saturday as northwest flow drags drier air into the our region on the east side of the ridge.
A ridge axis centered N/S along the west coast will produce dry and stable conditions across northern and central NV through Saturday. Afternoon highs will trend 2-4 degrees warmer both today and again on Saturday, with overnight lows trending 1-2 degrees warmer each night.
Tonight, we can expect another night of cool, calm conditions with lows dropping into the lower 50s in and around the city and into the upper 40s across outlying areas. Tomorrow will be another pleasant day for us and should even be a few degrees warmer. Mild southerly flow in anticipation of an impending cold front will pull highs up into the middle to upper 70s. Doom A slow-moving and stacked mid to upper-level low mid-level crossing northern Ontario Friday through Saturday night will drag a weak cold front across the CWA on Saturday. With waning ET heading into the second half of September, it remains to be seen if low-level moisture will become sufficiently high to generate more robust convection with the cold front and on the nose of a modest mid-level speed max Saturday afternoon.
303 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 An elongated upper trough approaching from the west-northwest amidst saturated mid-levels will support scattered to numerous showers (with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms) expanding slowly eastward across the region today. Thinking the highest chances today will be mainly west of I-135, with these chances spreading east- southeast across the rest of central and eastern Kansas tonight through Saturday morning. For Saturday afternoon-evening, a deep upper trough approaching from the north amidst afternoon heating and steepening lapse rates may support a few thunderstorms redeveloping along and east of the Flint Hills.
954 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2023 High pressure will continue to bring dry weather with temperatures warming to above normal values for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
This wedge of high pressure is expected to continue to move SW into the state today pushing the main axis of moisture SW with it. Temps expected to be much cooler Today and Sat with highs in the 70s and lower 80s.