Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Shear is weak as a ridge aloft is folded over the region, with the upper low to the south more or less remaining in place. As the upper trough migrates from western Canada closer to the region, mid level flow strengthens and allows for warmer temperatures aloft. warmer temperatures aloft also will result in hot conditions across the area. More organized southerly flow will increase dewpoints ahead of the eastward progressing upper trough in Canada.
while next attention grabbing 500hpa trof/wave is moving through ID chimney area with convection developing ahead of the feature.
Further shower/storm development will be possible this afternoon across northwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma as another impulse rotates around the larger scale trough axis situated over the Central High Plains. Elsewhere, behind the outflow boundary, temperatures this afternoon will be much cooler than much of the last week thanks to the rain cooled air and more cloud cover.
1247 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) A positively-tilted trough will be situated over the Texas Panhandle this afternoon with another disturbance over northern Mexico. At the surface, a convectively, reinforced cold front will stall across portions of the northern Permian Basin. These features will help keep temperatures cooler this afternoon as high temperatures only reach the low to mid 90s for many. Instability is expected to be moderate but overall effective shear remains modest, except near the cold front. Lee troughing remains heading into Sunday as a weak disturbance sits over the region. Temperatures during the afternoon are expected to be a touch cooler than Saturday.
Through daybreak, any isolated to scattered development is likely to stay along the Highway 20 corridor or southward. TODAY: An open mid-lvl trough will continue to drift eastward through the Midwest, producing a continued risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. TONIGHT: Skies should clear through the overnight hours, which will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 60s once again.
Skies have become clear to partly cloudy overnight as the upper trof has shifted into Nebraska. However, there is an isolated renegade shower out over Logan county in closer proximity to the low circulation. The low will continue to shift east out over the central plains today as high pressure aloft builds across Colorado. Temperatures today will be warmer with about a +3c jump in 700mb temperatures over the Front range.
(Rest of today through Sunday) Models depict a mid-level ridge remaining in control of much of the region during the short term. High temperatures will remain in the low 90s near the coasts, and into the mid 90s inland and Lake region. Heat indices will climb into the low-mid 100s, although locally higher values will be possible.
1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 An upper level short wave trough located across the region will continue to progress eastward today into the Mississippi Valley region.
(This evening through Sunday) As of 2 PM, an outflow boundary/cold front had moved south to a line roughly from Mertzon to San Angelo to San Saba, and was sparking showers and thunderstorms across the Concho Valley, including San Angelo. On Sunday, the overall set-up will not change that much, with weak relative troughing over the area, plentiful moisture available, and various residual boundaries in the area, another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, especially for the southern half of the area.
1219 PM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023 An upper level trough looks to skirt to the north of the CWA overnight into Sunday.
(The rest of this afternoon and Tonight) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon just east of CWA in association with mid level impulse lifting northeast ahead of main upper trough axis. Although it will not be significantly cooler behind the front, drier air will filter into northeast Oklahoma, keeping heat indices in check.
1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 (Today through Sunday Night ) Upper level high pressure will shift eastward today along the Gulf Coast as an upper trough moves into the Plains. Tonight the upper trough moves into the Midwest and the high weakens along the Gulf Coast. The upper trough moves through the Great Lakes Sunday and into the northeast Sunday night. An upper ridge strengthens over the desert southwest during the weekend. High pressure will continue over the area today but will be shifting east with hot and humid conditions. A cold front will approach from the west tonight and bring an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms in the north and west today and more widespread on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be a couple of degrees cooler in most locations, upper 80s to upper 90s.
Likely PoPs remain warranted for Sunday, especially east of a Saint Johns to Kalamazoo line, as weak surface cyclogenesis takes place over the MI/OH/IN border region downstream from a developing mid- level trough.
Storms over SE Nebraska and NE Kansas will pivot around the low this afternoon and evening, with scattered storms arriving in the KC metro sometime around 6 pm through 9 pm and the moving eastward down Interstate 70 through the remainder of the evening hours, exiting the region to the east by around 11 pm tonight. Outside of the storms today, high temperatures this afternoon will reach the the low to mid 80s for most locations. This will put us under northwesterly flow aloft with the low to our northeast and a stout mid level high centered over the Great Basin region.
1034 AM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023 07z surface analysis had low over eastern KS with inverted trough into south-central SD. Water vapour loop depicted upper low spinning over central NE. Temperatures will be much warmer given forecast soundings.
STP Weak ridging provides clear skies to start the day on Saturday. A cold front arrives in the evening bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms most locations overnight, exiting to the east by sunrise.
Sunday has potential to be even warmer as the main upper level ridge continues to shift east.
1223 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 (Today and tonight) A couple of mid-level short wave troughs will move through the bast of the synoptic trough ranging from western Texas to western Quebec. At the surface, a weak cold front will move slowly into central Oklahoma then pass into southern Oklahoma this evening.
A few embedded areas of positive vorticity advection will rotate around the trough, providing the large-scale ascent for scattered showers and storms. This high moisture content, coupled with slow storm motions, could result in a some flooding issues.
Even with the ridge weakening over our area (and temperatures seeing a bit of a downward trend), moisture levels increase from today, leading to Heat Indices topping out in the 107-112 degree range over the majority of the forecast on Sunday.
With the upper level ridge moving in to our north winds will continue in the 5 to 10 knot range with a slight uptick towards the middle to end of the week. Atlantic ridging to our north will maintain light to gentle breezes across the Keys through the beginning of this week, with freshening breezes towards the end of the forecast period.
1148 AM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023 Key Messages: 1) Quiet day expected with on isolated storms over some of the highest terrain.
A backdoor front, associated with an upper low crossing central Canada will begin to drop into the area Sunday evening.
A Heat Advisory is out for the high foothills of the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains through Sunday. The ridge of high pressure (heat-dome) is now sitting over the West Coast as temperatures warm toward the century (100) mark.
329 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 A warm front will stall out across Central Pennsylvania this weekend.
Isolated showers and storms will continue to develop over the higher terrain today and may make it onto the adjacent plains. Instability values will be on the lower side tomorrow with most unstable CAPE staying below 1,000 j/kg. Otherwise, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the 80s across the plains.
1128 AM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023 With the longwave trough finally out of the way moving across the Central Plains, Wyoming can finally get a small taste of summer this holiday weekend. H5 ridge centered across California will try to extend across the Great Basin into western Wyoming starting today. Sunday the ridge will get a better hold on the state, holding off convection for the day, and nudging temps up another few degrees. Beyond this, the next large-scale trough drifts east across the Canadian Prairies starting Sunday, which will drag a weak cold front to the MT/WY border Sunday night.
Some impressive wind gusts were observed with the highest so far being Nashville International Airport with a gust of 67mph.
Cooler temperatures on the way. The cold front extending from the low pressure center located in NW MO is sweeping through the region. Convection, cloud cover, and the passage of the cold front itself will result in cooler low temperatures tonight than we have been seeing recently, in the mid to upper 60s. The base of the upper level trough will move through on Sunday, and its energy may spark additional showers and storms in the east and southeast.
Much warmer temperatures are expected Sunday, with highs climbing into the 90s. Mesoscale analysis shows very little in the way of shear, both at the lower and middle levels. Scattered showers could persist into the overnight period, with temperatures remaining on the warmer side, generally in the 60s for most areas. Heading into Sunday, warm air advection along southerly winds will allow our temperatures to climb into the low 90s. CAPE values will be in the 3000 to 4000 J/Kg range; however, shear will depend upon the timing of an approaching cold front. Overview: -Zonal flows turns Northwesterly as trough moves through Canada to increase thunderstorm potential during the work week.
Our dry cold front is pushing through the Northwest today, resulting in gusty west winds funneling through the Cascade gaps and across the Waterville Plateau and the Columbia Basin. Very dry conditions are present as relative humidities are dipping into the low 20 percent to teens range.
It begins now, as upper-level ridging continues to slide off to the east. This is allowing for a trough and cold front to begin working through the Plains and Midwest. While the region won't be directly effected by this cold front, the trough will more or less "settle" and elongate into south TX. Given the placement of the trough, and a lack of a ridge, rain chances will begin to increase tomorrow morning, and remain for the entire short-term with SW flow. If you're lucky enough to see some of the heavier rain or cloud shield, highs for you tomorrow will only get up into the low-90s.
1227 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 (Today through Sunday) Key Message: - Dangerous heat conditions expected for the Coastal Bend and Brush Country this afternoon The mid level ridge will remain from Louisiana southwest into south Texas today through Sunday, although the ridge may weaken a little over the region by Sunday. GOES imagery of total precipitable water shows an axis of higher moisture along the lower Texas coast into the Coastal Bend (PW up to 1. With the ridge weakening just a little bit, heat index values are expected to be below advisory criteria on Sunday.
Ahead of this feature, perturbations ejecting from the positively-tilted trough over western Iowa, could also spark scattered storms over our area, especially in the vicinity of the outflow boundary. On Sunday, the aformentioned trough tracks east-northeast overhead keeping rain in the forecast.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) A trough over the Central Plains extends down into TX and NM while high pressure remains over the SE and Western States. This trough will swing east tonight weakening the ridge over the Gulf states as the one over CA/NV strengthens. The western ridge will grow Sunday reaching from the Pacific into NM as the base of the trough lingers along the Red River. Highs Sunday warm into the low to mid 90s across most of the region.
Temperatures were generally a few degrees cooler than 24 hours ago across central and southern OR and a few degrees warmer in Northern California. where temperatures were generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Brookings was 11 degrees warmer. An upper level ridge of high pressure over the Eastern Pacific will continue to slowly move eastward toward the OR coastline.
620 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 (The rest of this afternoon and Tonight) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon just east of CWA in association with mid level impulse lifting northeast ahead of main upper trough axis. Although it will not be significantly cooler behind the front, drier air will filter into northeast Oklahoma, keeping heat indices in check.
Slightly cooler temperatures and dewpoints should yield MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg with 0-6 km bulk shear of 25-30 kts.
With sufficient lift from the cold front and increased upward vertical motion, there is another chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight into tomorrow morning. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be out of the area by Sunday afternoon, leaving dry and cooler temperatures to close out the holiday weekend.
615 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 An upper level trough continues to slide eastward across the region this afternoon, producing showers and thunderstorms just to the south of our CWA through the day. The upper level trough moves into the central Mississippi Valley tonight.
642 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Water vapor loop shows the upper trough centered over northern Kansas, and surface observations show little progression of the stationary frontal boundary since mid-morning.
Weak ridging will be in place across the waters for the next several days, with a predominant E/NE flow turning onshore near the coast each afternoon.
625 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) A trough over the Central Plains extends down into TX and NM while high pressure remains over the SE and Western States. This trough will swing east tonight weakening the ridge over the Gulf states as the one over CA/NV strengthens. The western ridge will grow Sunday reaching from the Pacific into NM as the base of the trough lingers along the Red River. Highs Sunday warm into the low to mid 90s across most of the region.
814 PM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been persistent over the high country and northern foothills this afternoon. While a few managed to drift into the lower elevations, they have been quickly weakening under minimal instability and dry low levels. Isolated showers and storms will continue to develop over the higher terrain today and may make it onto the adjacent plains. Instability values will be on the lower side tomorrow with most unstable CAPE staying below 1,000 j/kg. Otherwise, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the 80s across the plains.
This will be in response to approaching low pressure over the western Great Lakes and resultant SW flow ahead of the upper trough.
(The rest of tonight) A weak cold front will enter northeast Oklahoma shortly and will continue moving southeast overnight. Although it will not be significantly cooler behind the front, drier air will filter into northeast Oklahoma, keeping heat indices in check.
The entire area should dry out after midnight MDT as weak upper air ridging moves in. A backdoor front, associated with an upper low crossing central Canada will begin to drop into the area Sunday evening.
Western Atlantic ridge becomes elongated over Florida into Sunday.
High pressure continues to build over the area and many low elevation inland valleys site over 100 degrees as of 1pm.
929 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 An upper level trough continues to slide eastward across the region this afternoon, producing showers and thunderstorms just to the south of our CWA through the day. The upper level trough moves into the central Mississippi Valley tonight.
(This evening through Sunday) Water vapor loop shows the upper trough centered over northern Kansas, and surface observations show little progression of the stationary frontal boundary since mid-morning.
High pressure continues to build over the state leading to increased temperatures and dry condtions for most of the CWA.
Initially it looked like we were in for quite a bit of wet weather as an active cloud line was going across the Lower Keys. Surface observations show that winds are quickly becoming east to southeast as the low level ridge across the southeast US tries to merge with ridging out across the Atlantic. From synopsis, Atlantic ridging to our north will maintain light to gentle breezes across the Keys through the beginning of this week, with freshening breezes towards the end of the forecast period.
404 PM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023 An upper level trough looks to skirt to the north of the CWA overnight into Sunday.
755 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 A warm front will stall out across Central Pennsylvania this weekend.
553 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 (This evening through Sunday) As of 2 PM, an outflow boundary/cold front had moved south to a line roughly from Mertzon to San Angelo to San Saba, and was sparking showers and thunderstorms across the Concho Valley, including San Angelo. On Sunday, the overall set-up will not change that much, with weak relative troughing over the area, plentiful moisture available, and various residual boundaries in the area, another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, especially for the southern half of the area.
/Today through Saturday/ Key Messages: -Showers end southeast today otherwise warmer.
Early This Morning Slow moving scattered showers and isolated storms were ongoing along a pivoting low-level convergent axis stretching along and slightly north of the highway 34 corridor. This Afternoon and Evening Temps will rebound into the low/mid 80s by afternoon and it will be another humid day with dewpoints in the 60s. A build up of surface-based instability on the backside of the departing upper low could lead to development of isolated showers and storms during the late afternoon and into the evening.
Daytime highs will be slightly cooler than normal, from the upper 80s to low 90s with light surface winds. Although temperatures will be warmer than yesterday for most of us, dewpoints will be 5-10 degrees lower so it won't be as muggy. Later this afternoon we'll see convection begin to move off the higher terrain in northeast New Mexico and begin to track toward our area with northwest flow aloft.
With lower heights and additional cloud cover, high temperatures tomorrow are forecast to be slightly cooler than today.
As a trough swings through the Ohio Valley, showers and storms are expected in the area again today.
But the high-resolution NAM and perhaps the RAP do show some shower development, and mid-level clouds are beginning to develop across Hughes and Pontotoc Counties and some hints of development southwest from there, so will keep some low POPs in the south, but reduce the probabilities from the afternoon forecast. (This evening through Sunday) Water vapor loop shows the upper trough centered over northern Kansas, and surface observations show little progression of the stationary frontal boundary since mid-morning.
Temperatures will be several degrees cooler than Saturday with 80s common in the valleys.
Broad high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in the upper/mid levels will shift east across Florida through the week.
Cold front drops in from the north by early this evening.
Highs look to warm into the low 80s for most areas of northern lower Michigan where storms do not initiate until later in the afternoon. Slightly cooler highs in the upper 70s are expected for areas that see any showers/storms in the early afternoon. Tonight, temperatures are expected to cool into the upper 50s and low 60s for most areas -- with cooler lows dipping into the low 50s northern of the bridge. Short wave ridging builds across the region through the period.
VERY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AGAIN FOR TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE REGION. THE DELTA REGION AND VICINITY MAY SEE TEMPERATURES TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY, AS INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME RELIEF IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER AFTER TODAY, AS THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
Not much change in the overall Synoptic pattern today as upper ridging remains in place to the west. Heights are expected to be slightly higher than yesterday resulting in warmer temperatures at the surface and decreased rain chances.
237 AM MDT Sun Jul 2 2023 A dry cold front drops south from Canada this morning, resulting in noticeably cooler temperatures across the plains today.
(Today and tonight) Weak mid-level troughing will exist through tonight over Oklahoma and northern Texas. Additionally, a weak cold front is expected to continue to move slowly into southeastern Oklahoma by afternoon. With the passage of the upper trough late tonight, weak northwest flow may bring showers/storms into western Oklahoma that generate earlier over northeastern New Mexico.
An upper trough overhead will also help precipitation production as a weak low develops across Indiana. Tonight the boundary will begin to sag southward and the low will move towards Lake Erie.
(Today and tonight) Weak troughing aloft will reside over the area again today, with weak disturbances providing another opportunity for showers and a thunderstorms once again. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal again today, with highs mainly in the lower 90s, although some upper 80s will be possible. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower 70s.
This evening through Saturday An upper level trough looks to skirt to the north of the CWA overnight into Sunday.
There is a small chance, less than 10 percent, for rain early Sunday morning in the Lower Valley thanks to the potential for some streamer showers.
Scattered thunderstorms will return to the Mid-South by late this morning as a cold front slowly moves toward the region.
1219 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) A trough over the Central Plains extends down into TX and NM while high pressure remains over the SE and Western States. This trough will swing east tonight weakening the ridge over the Gulf states as the one over CA/NV strengthens. The western ridge will grow Sunday reaching from the Pacific into NM as the base of the trough lingers along the Red River. Highs Sunday warm into the low to mid 90s across most of the region.
1143 PM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been persistent over the high country and northern foothills this afternoon. While a few managed to drift into the lower elevations, they have been quickly weakening under minimal instability and dry low levels. Isolated showers and storms will continue to develop over the higher terrain today and may make it onto the adjacent plains. Instability values will be on the lower side tomorrow with most unstable CAPE staying below 1,000 j/kg. Otherwise, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the 80s across the plains.
141 AM MDT Sun Jul 2 2023 07z surface analysis had low over southern SK with trough into eastern WY. Disposition of Canadian upper low main forecast concern. This feature will push cold front into the CWA late tonight.
0730Z water vapor imagery showed the upper trough over the middle MO river valley progressing east. Surface obs showed the surface boundary southeast of the forecast area with high pressure over western KS and the central high plains. This has brought some slightly cooler dewpoint temps into central KS. For today high pressure at the surface and general subsidence behind the upper trough is expected to bring lots of sunshine to the region. There isn't a whole lot of cool air advection progged today with the high already over the central plains.