Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently, upper level low continues to move east over western Minnesota early this morning, with the last area of snow across the James River Valley.
A broad positively tilted trough will slowly slide southeastward through the day. The initial band of storms and the main threat for severe weather should exit to our southeast early Sunday morning near sunrise; however, the main cold front lingers longer and some post-frontal showers may persist through Sunday afternoon across Central AL. Much colder weather moves in behind the cold front on Sunday.
526 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 Key Messages: - Breezy today with cooler temperatures, back to near-normal. A closed low is centered over Minnesota with a wave of energy on the southern periphery of the low diving south across South Dakota and Nebraska. This wave will pass through the area today bringing increased cloud cover, but a lack of moisture especially in the low-levels will keep the area dry. Northwest winds increase through the day with gusts of 30-35mph bringing in cooler air; temperatures will be 10-15 degrees cooler today than yesterday with highs back near climatological norms in the mid 40s. Surface winds gradually weaken overnight and lows fall into the low to mid 20s.
Accumulations will generally remain below an inch, with low (20-40%) probability of one inch or less near/east of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest MN.
There is a broad band of mainly light snow trailing the cold front from northwest MN into eastern SoDak that is being forced by PVA and some deformation. The lowest totals are expected down along the I-90 corridor, where much more than a dusting looks unlikely. The highest totals will be in central MN, closer to the path of the h7 low, but even here, an overachieving snow amount would be 2.
An arctic cold front will move through on Sunday promoting CAA. We should gradually clear through the day, but temperatures will be much cooler with highs only reaching the freezing mark.
A large upper level trough and associated cold front are forecast to cross the Plains and approach the MS Valley as we go from today through tonight. Strong west-southwest flow aloft at the base of the trough will bring a drier elevated mixed layer over the area and this will support steeper mid level lapse rates while diminishing deep layer moisture somewhat. While deep layer shear may orient more parallel with the front to support linear convective structures, the modest large scale ascent associated with the positively tilted trough coinciding with vigorous updraft potential may initially limit upscale convective growth and support supercell development/storm clusters. Expect colder air associated with an impressive thermal trough to be ushered in behind the front with gusty NNW wind late tonight as post-frontal light rainfall continues to impact the area.
In a warm front scenario such as this, forecast models tend to increase snow levels a bit too quickly.
526 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2023 Upper trof moving into the upper midwest with slight ridging over the Pacific northwest this morning. A wave slides down the flow across Alberta on Sunday, pulling the warmer air under the ridge to the east of the divide.
(Today and tonight) A strong surge of cold air is expected to arrive this morning as an upper level trough moves east across the Great Plains. North winds will increase this morning to around 20-25 mph which will lead to wind chill values about 10 degrees cooler throughout the morning for most areas. As the base of upper level trough moves east, models show a ribbon of moisture around 850-700 mb moving south through the Texas Panhandle (where it is already precipitating as of 09Z).
- Potential for high winds up to 80 mph in the higher mountains and Front Range Foothills on Sunday. Downslope off the Cheyenne ridge, could push temperatures into the lower 40s from Greeley to Fort Morgan. Main concern on Sunday is the high wind threat over the higher mountains and Front Range foothills. Given the above parameters, a high wind watch is warranted for Sunday over the higher mountains and foothills and will be issued with this morning's forecast package.
527 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper trough moving through the central Plains will aid in pushing a reinforcing shot of cold air south this morning. These winds along with cooler temperatures in the wake of yesterdays cold front and morning cloud cover will create wind chills in the 20s and 30s across the area this morning.
521 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 (Today) Longwave troughing dominates the central CONUS today with the trough axis moving over our area this afternoon. As this occurs, a reinforcing cold front (most obvious aloft) pushes southeast with breezy north-northwest winds filling in behind it.
Mainly sunny skies are expected today as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area.
520 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) The long awaited cold front is traversing the region early this morning, having cleared MAF around 1 AM CST. The much cooler air is lagging the initial wind shift and the much cooler air is located near our shared border with Lubbock's area. Below freezing temperatures are expected across the entire area with most locations in the 20s. With these below freezing temperatures, a Freeze Watch has been issued for the Presidio Valley which has yet to see this kind of cold so far this season.
329 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 08z/2am surface analysis shows a cold front along the Illinois River. Meanwhile further north, the parent upper low evident on latest water vapor imagery over Minnesota will push into the Great Lakes and its associated cloud cover will dip southward into north-central Illinois. As high pressure moves overhead and skies clear, excellent radiational cooling will allow lows to dip into the lower 20s Sunday night.
530 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 (Today and tonight) Cold front is making progress through West Central Texas early this morning, and should clear the I-10 corridor around or shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, cold front will drop temperatures today across the area, ranging from mid 50s across the northern Big Country to the mid/upper 60s along I-10.
219 AM PST Sat Dec 9 2023 High pressure building over the Great Basin this weekend will bring sunny days, clear nights and gusty Santa Ana winds to the mountains, foothills, and valleys.
502 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 * Cooler and windy today.
521 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 (Today and tonight) A strong surge of cold air is expected to arrive this morning as an upper level trough moves east across the Great Plains. North winds will increase this morning to around 20-25 mph which will lead to wind chill values about 10 degrees cooler throughout the morning for most areas. As the base of upper level trough moves east, models show a ribbon of moisture around 850-700 mb moving south through the Texas Panhandle (where it is already precipitating as of 09Z).
Early morning low temperatures throughout the Valley are expected to drop into the low to mid 30s, with some instances of frost development possible. Ridging aloft will continue to dominate the upper level pattern across the weekend and into the early week ahead.
Snow levels slowly rise on Sunday for a wintry mix (including rain/freezing rain) in the lower valleys. Low confidence in freezing rain near KBKE 10/12Z through 10/16Z, although possible.
Although mostly unidirectional deep-layer flow is still expected as the cold front moves across Central Alabama overnight tonight, SRH values will remain high enough to favor rotating updrafts.
This afternoon the mid level trough axis was moving across eastern Kansas with the embedded closed low moving across northern Wisconsin. With the progression of the mid level trough to the east on Sunday, warm advection along with a westerly downslope component to the wind will warm temperatures back into the the lower 50s in central Kansas while mid 40s will be more common from far eastern northeast Kansas into Missouri.
921 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 Cold front has pushed through a large part of the forecast area so far, and is seen nicely on visible satellite and radar mosaics having just gone through Olney and Robinson. Only the far northwest CWA should hold fairly steady in the lower to mid 40s into early afternoon. Geelhart 08z/2am surface analysis shows a cold front along the Illinois River. Meanwhile further north, the parent upper low evident on latest water vapor imagery over Minnesota will push into the Great Lakes and its associated cloud cover will dip southward into north-central Illinois. As high pressure moves overhead and skies clear, excellent radiational cooling will allow lows to dip into the lower 20s Sunday night.
High pressure over the west Atlantic will continue to shift northeast, with ridge axis near to just north of the area.
353 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 A cold front will sweep across the area tonight.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) What is a cold front? Is it the northerly wind shift that happened overnight last night? Is it the increase in northerly winds currently happening across the area that is also putting a halt to afternoon heating? Such is the fun of forecasting weather in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico where our weather is not as textbook as it is farther east. Southerly winds develop Sunday so lows Sunday night, while cold, will be several degrees warmer than tonight.
- Potential for high winds up to 80 mph in the higher mountains and Front Range Foothills on Sunday. Some lingering areas of light snow along the higher northwest facing slopes in the high country, with gusts northwest winds across the plains this afternoon. The Sangster/Pressure Gradient Model suggest warning criteria wind at 12z and 18z, so at some point we will be upgrading the high wind watch to a warning. Downslope off the Cheyenne ridge, could push temperatures into the lower 40s from Greeley to Fort Morgan. Main concern on Sunday is the high wind threat over the higher mountains and Front Range foothills. Given the above parameters, a high wind watch is warranted for Sunday over the higher mountains and foothills and will be issued with this morning's forecast package.
1126 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 Cold front has pushed through a large part of the forecast area so far, and is seen nicely on visible satellite and radar mosaics having just gone through Olney and Robinson. Only the far northwest CWA should hold fairly steady in the lower to mid 40s into early afternoon. Geelhart 08z/2am surface analysis shows a cold front along the Illinois River. Meanwhile further north, the parent upper low evident on latest water vapor imagery over Minnesota will push into the Great Lakes and its associated cloud cover will dip southward into north-central Illinois. As high pressure moves overhead and skies clear, excellent radiational cooling will allow lows to dip into the lower 20s Sunday night.
Seasonable temperatures will occur under mostly sunny skies today, behind yesterday's cold front. Expect afternoon highs to reach the low-mid 50s north of the I-40 corridor and mid-upper 50s to lower 60s south of I-40.
Key Messages: - Breezy today with cooler temperatures, back to near-normal. A closed low is centered over Minnesota with a wave of energy on the southern periphery of the low diving south across South Dakota and Nebraska. This wave will pass through the area today bringing increased cloud cover, but a lack of moisture especially in the low-levels will keep the area dry. Northwest winds increase through the day with gusts of 30-35mph bringing in cooler air; temperatures will be 10-15 degrees cooler today than yesterday with highs back near climatological norms in the mid 40s. Surface winds gradually weaken overnight and lows fall into the low to mid 20s.
1045 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper trough moving through the central Plains will aid in pushing a reinforcing shot of cold air south this morning. These winds along with cooler temperatures in the wake of yesterdays cold front and morning cloud cover will create wind chills in the 20s and 30s across the area this morning.
Tonight, the large vort dropping into the upper low over the Great Lakes will continue to bring clouds, flurries, and brisk winds through the evening hours tonight. The NBM guidance continue to suggest lows in the lower 20s west of Cedar Rapids to Dubuque tonight, which depends of the clearing line reaching that axis by 8 AM. This slightly cooler than normal day will give way to one cool night ahead Sunday night.
1133 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 * Cooler and windy today.
Sfc obs and objective mesoanalysis data indicated the primary sfc was located over Nrn IL early this AM, w/ a pressure trof/sfc cdfrnt extending S/Wwrd across the Ozark Plateau region of Srn Cntrl MO and N/Wrn AR. Cooler and stable air was evident behind this frnt in N/Wrn AR. Like most high shear/low CAPE cool season severe weather setups, a robust H500 trof extending across the Cntrl US wl supply plentiful vertical shear and synoptic forcing for ascent as the vorticity max aloft translates Ewrd across the FA. Though, the positive tilt of the trof and N/Wrn displacement of the greatest height falls aloft from the low-lvl warm sector does not bode well for sufficient destabilization this afternoon, particularly if the sfc cdfrnt advances as quickly as short term guidance has been suggesting.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints continue to climb into the lower 70s.
Generally quiet conditions have developed across the area this afternoon as a cold front has completely moved to our southeast. Meanwhile, a broad upper trough will continue to dig southeastward tonight and into tomorrow, and this will reinforce a noticeably cooler airmass than what has been in place in recent days. generally ranging from morning lows in the mid 20s to near the freezing mark, to afternoon maximums in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
/Issued 1113 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023/ /Through Sunday/ A cold front has swept through North and Central Texas and is currently clearing our southern border. The greatest effects of today's cold front will be experienced on Sunday, starting off with cold December morning. Although there will be plenty of sunshine again tomorrow, afternoon highs should remain in the low to mid 50s.
Very warm and moist air advecting from the south overdub of the cooler waters has resulted in persistent areas of sea fog. Further east, water temperatures along the coast are warmer and there are much lower chances for sea fog formation.
1148 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) The long awaited cold front is traversing the region early this morning, having cleared MAF around 1 AM CST. The much cooler air is lagging the initial wind shift and the much cooler air is located near our shared border with Lubbock's area. Below freezing temperatures are expected across the entire area with most locations in the 20s. With these below freezing temperatures, a Freeze Watch has been issued for the Presidio Valley which has yet to see this kind of cold so far this season.
1127 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 (Today and tonight) Cold front is making progress through West Central Texas early this morning, and should clear the I-10 corridor around or shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, cold front will drop temperatures today across the area, ranging from mid 50s across the northern Big Country to the mid/upper 60s along I-10.
A strong cold front will move east of the Mid-South tonight.
Upper trof moving into the upper midwest with slight ridging over the Pacific northwest this morning. A wave slides down the flow across Alberta on Sunday, pulling the warmer air under the ridge to the east of the divide.
A large anticyclone centered near Bermuda supports moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys this morning. The forecast calls for highs in the lower 80s with near nil rain chances. Another cold front will approach the Florida Keys coastal waters late Sunday and Sunday night, with slackening breezes and a bout of unsettled weather possible ahead of the front.
Low level moisture continues to stream northward as dewpoints across south-central Kentucky climb into the low 60s. Any isolated supercells able to develop ahead of the cold front will also pose a threat for large hail. The cold front is expected to push through the region by midnight, leaving in its wake drier and much colder air. The cold will be quite noticeable tomorrow during the day, as high temps struggle to climb into the low 40s, and brisk northwest winds keep wind chills in the 30s.
High pressure building over the Great Basin will bring gusty Santa Ana winds to the mountains, foothills, and valleys this weekend.
Discussion: A large trough dominates the central US weather pattern this afternoon resulting in everything from severe storms in the southern US to snow in the north.
Temperatures ended up a few degrees warmer today than previously forecasted, meaning much of our precipitation today has fallen as drizzle or a light rain/snow mix, with the only light accumulations so far across far-western Minnesota. Temperatures have begun to drop this afternoon as the cold front moves into eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin, so a transition over to entirely light snow is still expected late this afternoon and early this evening. Despite the ending snow, cloud cover is expected to stick around overnight which will keep temperatures on the warmer end of guidance in the upper teens to low 20s.
729 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2023 - High winds up to 80 mph in the higher mountains and Front Range Foothills on Sunday.
705 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 A cold front will sweep across the area tonight.
837 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 Latest radar and satellite imagery shows a cold front continuing to push across the region with widespread rainfall and some embedded thunderstorms mainly along and east of I-65. Low level moisture continues to stream northward as dewpoints across south-central Kentucky climb into the low 60s. Any isolated supercells able to develop ahead of the cold front will also pose a threat for large hail. The cold front is expected to push through the region by midnight, leaving in its wake drier and much colder air. The cold will be quite noticeable tomorrow during the day, as high temps struggle to climb into the low 40s, and brisk northwest winds keep wind chills in the 30s.
542 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 (This evening through Sunday night) As of early this afternoon, latest radar imagery was watching the last of the showers exit the Panhandles alongside the cold front. Heading into Sunday, models expected the Panhandles to get a brief return to dry weather with the building of an upper-level ridge over the Central and Western US.
Winds and gusts have also calmed over the course of the morning, as a high pressure system has overtaken the area. Temperatures overnight in most of the Valley were quite cold, reaching below freezing in some locations like Modesto, Lincoln, and Marysville. Tonight, conditions will begin to warm a little, though there is still a 20-70% chance of temperatures at or below freezing at many Valley locations. While daytime temperatures will remain at or near normal today, the ridge will allow temperatures on Sunday to warm to a couple to a few degrees above normal for the time of year.
Temperatures remain steady in the low to middle 20s everywhere except the Devils Lake area, where skies are gradually clearing. Upper low pulls off into Great Lakes this evening, with northwesterly flow setting up behind it.
Otherwise, the main forecast concern remains with the QLCS thunderstorms that are expected Sunday afternoon and early evening ahead of the next cold front. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will move southeast into the Tampa Bay area terminals by around 21z Sunday, then into the southwest Florida area terminals by around 00z, with periods of reduced flight categories and gusty winds expected as storms pass through. Southerly and southeasterly winds will continue tonight and through Sunday morning ahead of an approaching cold front, with wind speeds expected to remain less than 15 knots.
A reinforcing shot of cool weather is underway as the base of a high-amplitude upper trough pivots across the Southern Plains. In the wake of yesterday's frontal passage, temperatures are running cooler, though still near seasonable readings (upper-40s north to upper-50s south).
Latest radar and satellite imagery shows a cold front continuing to push across the region with widespread rainfall and some embedded thunderstorms mainly along and east of I-65. The rest of the forecast remains on track for a cooler and cloudy Sunday. Low level moisture continues to stream northward as dewpoints across south-central Kentucky climb into the low 60s. Any isolated supercells able to develop ahead of the cold front will also pose a threat for large hail. The cold front is expected to push through the region by midnight, leaving in its wake drier and much colder air. The cold will be quite noticeable tomorrow during the day, as high temps struggle to climb into the low 40s, and brisk northwest winds keep wind chills in the 30s.
650 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 Rain will overspread the region this evening and continue through most of Sunday as a cold front approaches and crosses.
823 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 Rain will overspread the region this evening and continue through most of Sunday as a cold front approaches and crosses.
522 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) What is a cold front? Is it the northerly wind shift that happened overnight last night? Is it the increase in northerly winds currently happening across the area that is also putting a halt to afternoon heating? Such is the fun of forecasting weather in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico where our weather is not as textbook as it is farther east. Southerly winds develop Sunday so lows Sunday night, while cold, will be several degrees warmer than tonight.
The higher terrain in the aforementioned locations are expected to receive 9 to 15 inches of snow by Sunday evening. The higher valleys of Clearwater and Idaho counties should get 4 to 8 inches by Sunday morning.
A narrow area of weak upper ridging settling over the area will maintain limited clouds across the region this evening. However, mid-level moisture will begin to overspread northeast Montana later tonight through early Sunday morning, in advance of a weakly organized upper trough dropping in across the region.
701 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 Aviation - Lake Effect Snow Sunday Showers and strong winds have shifted east of the area with the cold front.
Currently, low pressure over the Great Lakes region continues to move east. Elsewhere, the lower stratus in the southwest is tracking quickly to the southeast, but may linger in the southwest/south central as surface flow weakens and turns more westerly. A few readings in the single digits are possible north central and a few readings in the lower 20s are possible southwest.
High pressure builds into the region for the weekend.
222 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023 The leading edge of the next atmospheric river and warm front has hit areas in central Oregon this afternoon. Those waiting for snow over the higher terrain and mountains will have to wait a bit longer as the airmass is fairly warm with this precipitation event on Sunday. A cold front will slide down from the north as a short wave swings through the region Sunday evening. The cold front doesn't appear to move that far to the east farther inland. Instead it looks like some cooler air just shoots down the coastline.
931 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 A cold front will sweep across the area tonight.
A dry cold front has brought gusty winds, dry conditions, and cold temperatures to northern Arizona. The cold front and associated trough will progress eastward overnight, allowing for winds to begin weakening late this evening. For lower elevations, morning lows will be near to well below freezing.