Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak upper level trough will slide through the Central Plains today with a weak upper level ridge following close behind. A few upper level clouds will accompany this trough as it passes overhead with mostly clear skies by this afternoon and continuing through tonight. At the surface, a weak trough of low pressure will trek across western Kansas this morning shifting winds from a southerly direction to the northwest. These northwesterly winds will not last very long as lee troughing redevelops across eastern Colorado in the evening shifting winds back to a southerly direction by sunrise tomorrow. One of these storms is showing signs of closing off as a small upper level low as it moves east across the Rockies and into the Central Plains by mid week.
558 AM EST Mon Jan 9 2023 (Today and tonight) Cold frontal passage is in progress in the tri-state region.
Low temps will range from the lower 50s around the lake and inland Collier, to upper 50s and lower 60s elsewhere.
A weak warm frontal boundary will pass through the area creating a light, yet steady westerly component to winds through the day today, while allowing clouds to clear out from west to east. With a bit better mixing, this should allow for high temperatures similar if not slightly warmer compared to yesterday, especially in the Bismarck/Mandan area. NBM PoPs remain on the low end, while hi-res models are pretty consistent in light snow falling over most of the forecast area at some point in time. Therefore, increased PoPs in this highlighted area Tuesday for evening.
Dry and warmer than normal weather will continue through Tuesday with increasing higher clouds.
549 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2023 A rigorous mid/upper trough is progressing eastward towards the California coastline this morning. While the next couple of days will be relatively mild and quiet, this trough will be the catalyst for the mid-week system that will impact portions of the central plains.
523 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Satellite imagery and RAP analysis depict a stream of Pacific moisture bringing sct-bkn high cirrus to much of TX early this morning ahead of a weak, positively tilted trough axis currently located across E NM/W TX/NRN Mexico. As the trough approaches this afternoon, surface flow will turn to the SE to S and usher in some higher dew points. However, winds at 850mb and above will remain out of the W and will turn NW behind the trough axis, keeping drier air in place aloft and limiting any precipitation chances locally today. Ridging will build into the region through Tuesday, clearing out skies for the afternoon.
308 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2023 A rigorous mid/upper trough is progressing eastward towards the California coastline this morning. While the next couple of days will be relatively mild and quiet, this trough will be the catalyst for the mid-week system that will impact portions of the central plains.
As high pressure lingers to our east, the easterly flow at the lower levels will per- sist which should help limit low-level moisture return tonight. Lows tonight will still be on the cool side - ranging from the upper 40s across our far northern counties to the lower and mid 50s elsewhere inland. Flat ridging at the mid/upper levels along with the return of S/SE winds will help with warming temperatures tomorrow. Tues' highs will climb into the lower to mid 70s.
(Now through Tuesday) The cold front that passed through the area yesterday has stalled just to our south tonight. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s today. Mid level ridging will nudge in from the west on Tuesday and with skies expected to become mostly sunny by the afternoon, temperatures will rise into 80s across most the area.
745 AM EST Mon Jan 9 2023 Weak cold front will pass southeast across the area this morning. High pressure will build from the west this afternoon through Tonight.
Light freezing rain created pockets of slick roads for several locations last evening, that may be still slick for the morning commute. As such, Winter Weather Advisories for light freezing rain will remain in effect through 9AM MST this morning. Area valleys will likely experience a mix of snow and light freezing rain, that could pose travel impacts once again for the Tuesday morning commute.
641 AM EST Mon Jan 9 2023 High pressure centered over Tennessee will provide dry weather across the Ohio Valley today.
Surface ridging will provide for another cool night tonight as winds calm and cloud cover thins. This along with ridging aloft will allow maximums to climb through the 60s to around 70.
Temperatures are in the lower 70s at most island communities, and despite weak cold advection, ample solar insolation should still allow temperatures to top out in the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. The low-level moisture sampled by the 12z sounding at KEY is likely no longer representative of the current environment, and near-nil rain chances seems appropriate for the balance of the first period.
Then a low looks to push in tomorrow through midweek potentially bringing a chance at some drizzle/freezing drizzle Tuesday morning. Weak low pressure tracking from the Dakotas today to Wisconsin late tonight will drift across the area until late Tuesday night. With temperatures expected to be just below freezing early Tuesday morning, a period of freezing drizzle is possible. Temperatures are looking a little warmer than previously forecast and moisture should be pretty shallow, so not expecting any high- impact freezing drizzle accumulations, but it's still worth the mention.
(Rest of Today) Surface analysis this morning shows the cold front that shifted through the area yesterday is over the northern Gulf. In its wake, high pressure continues to establish, centered over the MS Valley at the moment. Seasonable temperatures will be in place today with temps rising into the low 50s in most locations.
1240 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2023 High pressure centered over Tennessee will provide dry weather across the Ohio Valley today.
214 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2023 KEY MESSAGES 1) Overnight fog chances continue with expansion again likely tonight into Tuesday morning 2) Minor precipitation chance later Tuesday across Hwy 14 corridor into SW Minnesota 3) Breezy mid week with patchy blowing and drifting snow where loose snowpack exists 4) Warming trend into weekend will push temperatures toward or above the freezing mark.
The main wave of precipitation will arrive late this morning through the afternoon, and taper off from west to east this evening behind a cold front. The forecast calls for 2-4 inches of snow today along Highway 55 but could see slightly higher amounts if the temperature remains in the lower 30s.
A weak upper ridge builds east over the southeast behind the exiting upper trough, contributing to a rise in temperatures in the Near Term. Tonight, a dry airmass over the forecast area along with light winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling, with temperature dropping into the low to mid 30s along and north of Highway 84 to upper 30 to low 40s along the coast.
The same is true for the Snake River plain, where it should hover right around the freezing mark, making a messy rain and snow event, changing over late tonight to snow. Wind should increase in intensity from the south and southwest, but since it should be fairly wet for the lower elevations, may not see a strong impact on drifting and blowing, unless at high elevations in the passes.
A very weak cold front is forecast to move through the mid-Mississippi Valley very late tonight and early Tuesday morning.
Much of the lower to mid levels remain quite dry across the region (per 12z FFC sounding) so no precip is expected with this passing disturbance.
225 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2023 A cold front will continue pushing across the peninsula this afternoon, with no rain expected. High pressure quickly builds into the southeast, with drier and cooler conditions expected Tuesday.
Low amplitude ridging will then build into the area on Tuesday, with downslope flow helping warm temperatures 15-20+ degrees above average for highs, ranging from the mid 60s northeast to upper 70s/near 80 southwest.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) As the convective band that developed over the Atlantic waters and southeastern Florida earlier this morning moves into the Bahamas and Florida straits this afternoon, a period of cooler and drier conditions is expected.
319 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2023 Discussion/Marine -- Rain/snow mix Tuesday, freezing rain less likely -- We continue to expect accumulating precipitation across most if not all of the forecast area beginning Tuesday morning. As noted in the discussion update, we see a signal for a brief window of freezing rain, but the predominant precipitation type should be a snow to rain transition with few if any impacts expected.
1208 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2023 (Today and tonight) Cold frontal passage is in progress in the tri-state region.
330 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2023 High pressure will prevail through the middle of the week.
154 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2023 20z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into the NE panhandle. Upper trough affecting the west coast will be our main weather maker early in the week.
1139 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2023 (Now through Tuesday) The cold front that passed through the area yesterday has stalled just to our south tonight. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s today. Mid level ridging will nudge in from the west on Tuesday and with skies expected to become mostly sunny by the afternoon, temperatures will rise into 80s across most the area.
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night) High pressure influences will keep mid state dry through Tuesday night. But these high pressure influences will slowly shift eastward as this short term time period progresses, allowing for temperatures to warm. Lows tonight will be around freezing, upper 20s to lower 30s Cumberland Plateau Region, a few degrees actually above seasonal normal values.
At the surface a wind shift line in association with the trough is in central Kansas and is leading to the surface winds being more northerly today. Cooler temperatures will be in the east as the cooler air hangs on longer during the day and highs will be in the lower to mid 60s. One of these storms is showing signs of closing off as a small upper level low as it moves east across the Rockies and into the Central Plains by mid week.
Breezy westerly winds and mostly clear skies will bring afternoon highs into the low 70s. With the higher winds, temperatures will likewise increase, with record highs possible for many locations.
Pretty quiet morning with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Key Messages: -- Sunshine returns -- Temperatures slightly above normal High pressure moving overhead today will be accompanied by drier low- level air advecting in from the west, resulting in a gradual break- up of the low clouds by mid-late morning. Tonight the high will drift off to the east providing us with very light return flow from the south. Given these factors, temperatures will drop several degrees into the lower and middle 30s this evening then steady out overnight.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Yet another unseasonably warm January day is underway, with light southwesterly winds and a building midlevel ridge paving the way for highs to top out in the upper 60s to middle 70s for most. By Tuesday afternoon, the low-level thermal ridge will extend northeastward across the region coincident with increasing westerly downslope flow and continued rising heights.
1020 AM EST Mon Jan 9 2023 A cold front is nearly through our area this morning with some low stratus and broken mid-level clouds rolling through behind the front. (Today and tonight) Cold frontal passage is in progress in the tri-state region.
1137 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2023 (Rest of Today) Surface analysis this morning shows the cold front that shifted through the area yesterday is over the northern Gulf. In its wake, high pressure continues to establish, centered over the MS Valley at the moment. Seasonable temperatures will be in place today with temps rising into the low 50s in most locations.
It is noticeably drier since arriving at the office this morning, with the dew point at the backyard here on White Street in Key West down to the lower 60s. Sprawling high pressure over the eastern third of the United States will slowly slide eastward into the Western Atlantic this week.
Here highs will struggle to reach the lower 40s. The low level winds are downsloping in many areas. Temperatures are fairly mild with 30s to lower 40s F over the lower foothills and western plains. Upper ridging will move slowly eastward across the CWA today and tonight. The low level winds will be a mix of downsloping and normal diurnal patterns. Snowfall amounts do not warrant any highlights and the Park Range should see the highest amounts by 12Z Tuesday morning.
1129 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Satellite imagery and RAP analysis depict a stream of Pacific moisture bringing sct-bkn high cirrus to much of TX early this morning ahead of a weak, positively tilted trough axis currently located across E NM/W TX/NRN Mexico. As the trough approaches this afternoon, surface flow will turn to the SE to S and usher in some higher dew points. However, winds at 850mb and above will remain out of the W and will turn NW behind the trough axis, keeping drier air in place aloft and limiting any precipitation chances locally today. Ridging will build into the region through Tuesday, clearing out skies for the afternoon.
At the surface a wind shift line in association with the trough is in central Kansas and is leading to the surface winds being more northerly today. Cooler temperatures will be in the east as the cooler air hangs on longer during the day and highs will be in the lower to mid 60s.
Aloft, we're seeing mid-upr cloud cover increase from west to east as a mid-lvl trough approaches. TODAY: The aforementioned trough will enter the western Dakotas shortly after daybreak. The passage of the mid-lvl trough will usher in stronger westerly surface and low lvl flow this afternoon. Warmer surface temperatures will try to advect eastward, and there is some potential for temperatures to make a run towards the 30s.
1211 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2023 Dry conditions expected through the first of the half of the week with high pressure in control.
317 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2023 Key Message: Nice weather, a bit warmer Tuesday with highs in the 50s. High pressure at the sfc will keep winds light through the remainder of the day. Expect morning lows in the low to mid 30s for most, though sheltered low- lying areas will likely dip into the 20s. The mid-level wave passing just off to the north and east will induce stronger WSW flow in the lower levels, helping to boost WAA into the region. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 50s Tuesday afternoon.
Per upstream observations this morning, the depth of the low level warm layer will be more favorable for rain as the precip type, especially across metro Detroit/Ann Arbor south.
1112 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2023 Early morning patchy fog and freezing fog will give way to sunny skies and cool conditions today.
1200 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2023 A rigorous mid/upper trough is progressing eastward towards the California coastline this morning. While the next couple of days will be relatively mild and quiet, this trough will be the catalyst for the mid-week system that will impact portions of the central plains.
More of the same is anticipated tomorrow, although the morning will start with a bit more cloud cover but will quickly clear as the center of the high drifts nearer to central Florida by the mid afternoon. Overnight temperatures will cool to seasonal January values in the low 50s for most of the area, with northern Lake and Volusia reaching the upper 40s prior to daybreak.
242 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2023 Satellite imagery shows upper ridge axis over MT with high clouds thickening over ID into central MT. Main concern here is that there is enough boundary layer warm air to suggest some light freezing rain early Tuesday where valleys are sufficiently cold. Latest high res models have backed off on QPF, but NBM probs seem reasonable in suggesting a conditional probability of 30-60% for light freezing rain, if precip occurs. Eastern valleys will easily fall below freezing tonight. Temps Tuesday will be a little cooler than today but still upper 30s to mid 40s most places.
507 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Yet another unseasonably warm January day is underway, with light southwesterly winds and a building midlevel ridge paving the way for highs to top out in the upper 60s to middle 70s for most. By Tuesday afternoon, the low-level thermal ridge will extend northeastward across the region coincident with increasing westerly downslope flow and continued rising heights.
631 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2023 High pressure will prevail through the middle of the week.
An upper level trough currently over the Northern Plains will exit to the east this evening, with ridging building in late tonight through Tuesday morning. At the surface, broad weak low pressure will be over the central part of the country tonight. Tuesday looks to be quiet as weak high pressure tracks across the area, ahead of another approaching area of low pressure. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the lower 20s across west central Minnesota, to the mid 30s across south central South Dakota.
Dry and warmer than normal weather will continue through Tuesday.
521 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) High pressure influences will keep mid state dry through Tuesday night. But these high pressure influences will slowly shift eastward as this short term time period progresses, allowing for temperatures to warm. Lows tonight will be around freezing, upper 20s to lower 30s Cumberland Plateau Region, a few degrees actually above seasonal normal values.
422 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2023 20z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into the NE panhandle. Upper trough affecting the west coast will be our main weather maker early in the week.
Cross sections show a stable layer above ridge top Tuesday morning with a mountain wave forming on the east slopes of the Front Range Mountains and Foothills.
Key Message: Nice weather, a bit warmer Tuesday with highs in the 50s. High pressure at the sfc will keep winds light through the remainder of the day. Expect morning lows in the low to mid 30s for most, though sheltered low- lying areas will likely dip into the 20s. The mid-level wave passing just off to the north and east will induce stronger WSW flow in the lower levels, helping to boost WAA into the region. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 50s Tuesday afternoon.
500 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2023 KEY MESSAGES 1) Overnight fog chances continue with expansion again likely tonight into Tuesday morning 2) Minor precipitation chance later Tuesday across Hwy 14 corridor into SW Minnesota 3) Breezy mid week with patchy blowing and drifting snow where loose snowpack exists 4) Warming trend into weekend will push temperatures toward or above the freezing mark.
631 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2023 (Rest of today through Tuesday) As the convective band that developed over the Atlantic waters and southeastern Florida earlier this morning moves into the Bahamas and Florida straits this afternoon, a period of cooler and drier conditions is expected.
308 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2023 Overview: An upper level ridge. Meanwhile, a progressive upper level trough. Tuesday: Expect conditions similar to today, albeit several degrees warmer. Tuesday night: Expect increasing upper level cloud cover -- as flow aloft /atop the Rockies/ backs to the southwest in advance of the aforementioned upper wave -- with overnight lows relatively warmer than previous nights (~20-30F).
Cooler northerly flow at the surface will continue through the day today, but highs will remain right at normal for this time of the year. The high clouds could tamper overnight lows just a bit, but we should still be able to drop into the 30s areawide. Freezing temperatures will be likely across far northern counties and valley locations across east and northeast counties by daybreak on Tuesday.
Low level 925mb-850mb will be quite veered, thus any stratus and/or fog will likely be contained across the Lower Brazos/Trinity River Valleys right before dawn Tuesday.
Upstream temperatures are becoming quite mild, but fog and cloud cover have kept temperatures in many of the valleys of north- central Idaho and western Montana from warming much, which will increase the threat of valley mixed precipitation in the form of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Above 4500 feet is forecast to predominantly have snow with many inches of accumulations, and valleys above freezing will have precipitation start as mainly rain and transition to mixed precipitation. A negatively tilted ridge will build over the Northern Rockies by Tuesday evening.
Southerly flow commencing on the backside of departing low level high pressure will start bringing back north some Gulf of Mexico moisture tonight and this should manifest in patchy fog and a low cloud decks pressing in from the south late tonight through around daybreak.
Another wave of rain and snow is expected Tuesday before a high pressure ridge tries to build over the western U. Another wave of widespread rain and mountain snow is expected Tuesday as a trough of low pressure finally moves through the region. Lows tonight in many lower valleys west and south might not fall below freezing with upper 20s generally across the northern tier of the state.
(Tonight) High clouds, associated with a weak passing upper trough pattern, will continue to move eastward over parts of the region this Mon evening, before diminishing a bit overnight. High pressure which is also gradually moving eastward across the region will help maintain quiet/seasonably cool wx conditions into early Tue. Current temps have already lowered into mainly the mid/upper 30s and should have little trouble falling into the lower 30s late tonight, especially given the light winds.
The light northerly flow from the high center continues to advect a slightly drier and cooler airmass down the FL Peninsula tonight into Tue. A cold front will continue pushing across the peninsula this afternoon, with no rain expected. High pressure quickly builds into the southeast, with drier and cooler conditions expected Tuesday.
627 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2023 Aviation -- Rain/snow mix Tuesday, freezing rain less likely -- We continue to expect accumulating precipitation across most if not all of the forecast area beginning Tuesday morning. As noted in the discussion update, we see a signal for a brief window of freezing rain, but the predominant precipitation type should be a snow to rain transition with few if any impacts expected.
(Today and tonight) Low amplitude ridging embedded within zonal flow will remain over the Southern Plains as the next stronger trough moves into the Desert Southwest. Downslope flow will support warmer temperatures today ranging from 15-20 degrees warmer than average for this time of year. Winds will relax some this evening, and temperatures will get down into the low 40s in most places.
344 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 High pressure will build across and offshore the Carolinas and mid Atlantic through Wednesday. This moisture starved trough will push across central NC today. Highs are expected to reach the lower 50s north ranging into the mid to upper 50s elsewhere.
1206 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 (Rest of today through Tuesday) As the convective band that developed over the Atlantic waters and southeastern Florida earlier this morning moves into the Bahamas and Florida straits this afternoon, a period of cooler and drier conditions is expected.
Per upstream observations this morning, the depth of the low level warm layer will be more favorable for rain as the precip type, especially across metro Detroit/Ann Arbor south. Additional short wave energy emerging out of the west coast trough will then impact the region during the end of the week.