Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1214 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) An upper ridge continues to build over the central and southeast U. An upper low continues over the western U. The upper ridge is expected to remain in place through Monday. This low is expected to sink south today and Monday and bring a cold front toward Arkansas. High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s and in the lower 80s to lower 90s Monday. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows Monday night will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
Overnight, high pressure to our north will expand and push more dry air south, breaking up our cloud cover. Winds will be light with highs in the low 70s.
An upper level low pressure system near the Great Basin region continues to drift slowly northwestward as it undercuts the high pressure ridge centered in western Canada. Mainly sunny skies prevail over our area, although satellite loops indicate streams of developing cu over the higher terrain in the southwesterly flow around the low pressure center. As the upper low continues to track away from the region we will remain under the influence of a high pressure ridge and unseasonably warm conditions will continue, with maximum temperatures running well above normal each afternoon during the week.
Activity is forecast to pick up again early Monday morning as an inverted coastal trough remains parked along our coastline.
High pressure at the surface will remain wedged into the region from the east through Monday. This, as strong sub- tropical high pressure sits nearly directly over the forecast area. This will yet again result in hot conditions as we begin the work week, as highs Monday afternoon climb into the lower 90s after lows Monday morning bottom out from the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the high pressure system allowing for a limited amount of southerly moisture flow to drape across a good portion of our forecast area (most noticeably the eastern half) popup thunderstorms could occur around the evening hours.
Key Messages: - Cooler than normal with a chance of rain through Monday.
241 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023 Upper air analysis shows closed low over the US Canadian border and a closed low over Texas. Over the Southeast an upper level ridge was present. The cloud cover and CAA will cause temperatures to similar to today, but possibly a few degrees warmer given the lack of rainfall and more broken cloud cover than today. Due to more sparse cloud cover, lows will be cooler, falling into the 40s.
136 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 Scattered showers are likely today with cooler conditions.
331 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure over southeast CONUS has established a strong anticyclonic moisture feed from the Gulf, which is contributing to a steady stream of cloud cover locally. This moisture feed will be offset by a southward push of the northern stream trough axis, keeping precipitation chances mainly to our south and west through the evening. Otherwise, temperatures remain several degrees cooler than yesterday, upper 60s, as cold advection ramps up under uniform northeast flow in the lowest 1 km per 12z DTX RAOB and canopy of high-based cloud cover. Passage of the advertised trough axis yields a quick transition to clear skies from north to south overnight.
218 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023 Upper low that brought precip to the area has filled in with rain diminishing. Upper high pressure over southern Canada will continue to push southward as another upper low is over northwestern NV.
Slightly cooler temperatures will move back into the area Monday.
Additionally, a mid/upper level ridge continues to build over the Southeastern CONUS and nearly overhead.
332 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will persist across the Great Lakes through Monday.
1124 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will continue to provide the region with fair dry weather through Monday night.
High pressure remains to our south while we are on the northern periphery of the high.
939 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through Monday, which will bring dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.
950 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 While high pressure will persist into Monday evening, an upper disturbance will bring clouds and perhaps some very light rain late tonight into Monday.
Updated forecast will highlight eastern OK after midnight with the higher rain chances. (Monday through Sunday) Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday morning, with additional development expected as a cold front pushes into the area during the afternoon and evening.
Low pressure area currently centered over Nevada will continue to retrograde northwestward towards the northern California/Oregon border by early evening. The low will help to bring a cooling trend although temperatures will remain well above normal. The start of the day was warmer than yesterday but synoptic cooling and winds picking up should end up helping the cooling process. The low will also bring a chance for some afternoon and evening thunderstorms over parts of the region. Models continue to favor the northern mountains for activity this evening as the center of the low drifts northwestward and drying out the Sierra early in the evening. As the low moves northward into Oregon for Monday the area will dry out and high pressure will build back over the area. Monday will be a transition day with highs slightly cooler than today's highs.
With overall less convection today there were not as many rain cooled areas and temperatures were on track for another warmer than normal morning. High pressure at the surface will remain wedged into the region from the east through Monday. This, as strong sub- tropical high pressure sits nearly directly over the forecast area. This will yet again result in hot conditions as we begin the work week, as highs Monday afternoon climb into the lower 90s after lows Monday morning bottom out from the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the high pressure system allowing for a limited amount of southerly moisture flow to drape across a good portion of our forecast area (most noticeably the eastern half) popup thunderstorms could occur around the evening hours.
Given expected light winds and dry boundary layer, felt valley temps might get a touch cooler than forecast. Northeast flow will diminish in intensity through the overnight hours as high pressure drifts overhead. High pressure overhead for Monday will limit mixing through the day, though during the overnight hours a more organized westerly low level component will develop as high pressure sinks southwards.
754 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 Aviation -- Freezing or frost conditions north and east overnight -- After coordination with surrounding offices will issue a freeze warning for Lake, Osceola, and Clare Counties where lowest dewpoints will enable temperatures to dip just below freezing for perhaps a few hours. Although air temperatures here will be slightly warmer, we expect radiational cooling to be substantial and this will allow air immediately adjacent to surfaces to drop below freezing in many locations and permit frost given the slightly greater dewpoints.
High pressure will build into the region through the week ahead, bringing a slow warming trend through midweek. Southerly flow will keep anomalous atmospheric moisture in place, allowing for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain and adjacent valley areas.
Scattered and largely disorganized showers and thunderstorms have developed across the high terrain and into the Little Colorado River valley this afternoon. Latest guidance has a similar setup to that of today, with storms initially forming along the higher terrain and then gradually expanding into some of the lower elevations. A bit deeper moisture looks to be in place on Monday as a weak area of high pressure begins to build over the Four Corners.
Temperatures will remain tricky, depending upon overall cloud cover and amount of drier/cooler air that can move into the northern counties.
A cloud line formed before sunset near the Lower Keys, resulting in scattered showers.
606 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 Northeast flow will diminish in intensity through the overnight hours as high pressure drifts overhead. High pressure overhead for Monday will limit mixing through the day, though during the overnight hours a more organized westerly low level component will develop as high pressure sinks southwards.
502 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023 Upper low that brought precip to the area has filled in with rain diminishing. Upper high pressure over southern Canada will continue to push southward as another upper low is over northwestern NV.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this evening with the low pressure system to our southwest. The upper level low moves north across western Oregon stalling out by Monday afternoon. Less cloud cover tomorrow will allow temperatures to warm into the low 80s in the valley.
607 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023 Upper air analysis shows closed low over the US Canadian border and a closed low over Texas. Over the Southeast an upper level ridge was present. The cloud cover and CAA will cause temperatures to similar to today, but possibly a few degrees warmer given the lack of rainfall and more broken cloud cover than today. Due to more sparse cloud cover, lows will be cooler, falling into the 40s.
526 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023 With the midlevel cutoff low still drifting back to the west across the Great Basin, most of Wyoming remains generally in the middle of a col between two ridges and two troughs.
633 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 (Through Tonight) Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early this afternoon across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, having developed across northwest Arkansas within the instability max and also across the western fringes of the forecast area within the low to mid-level moisture max. (Monday through Sunday) Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday morning, with additional development expected as a cold front pushes into the area during the afternoon and evening.
As broad negative-tilt troughing persists over the Rio Grande, additional showers and thunderstorms should pivot northwestward into Central Texas during the daytime tomorrow. In addition, a weak cold front associated with strengthening Midwest upper-level flow will ooze into the area from the Northwest which should serve as a convective initiation mechanism as our mT airmass destabilizes with daytime heating. While most of the area should expect scattered storm coverage tomorrow, the highest chances will generally be along and south of I-20 during the afternoon and evening period.
Warm temperatures occurring today across the coast and interior will be followed by cooler seasonable conditions during early to middle portions of the upcoming work week.
808 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023 Showers have been increasing in and near the higher terrain early this evening, as another surge of slightly cooler air, has enhanced upslope flow. Scattered light rain showers are in place over the CWA with cloudy skies over the plains and mostly cloudy skies over the high country. Upper ridging builds into the CWA on Monday along with weak subsidence.
740 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 While high pressure will persist into Monday evening, an upper disturbance will bring clouds and perhaps some very light rain late tonight into Monday.
736 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through Monday, which will bring dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.
Models are beginning to trend toward a gradual drying this weekend as the low off Baja opens up and and the flow becomes more south to southwest.
600 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through Monday, which will bring dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.
733 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 (Through Monday) A stationary boundary to our north will be shoved southward throughout the day tomorrow by high pressure moving across the mid- atlantic states.
616 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) Current satellite shows clouds continue streaming in from the north behind a cold front that moved into the area yesterday. The cold front isn't obvious looking at surface evaluations, but a look at 850mb charts show a good line of convergence running from the Red River to the Trans Pecos with warmer and more unstable air to the south. Temperatures will be similar to today, perhaps a couple of degrees warmer and still below normal for this time of year.
739 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will persist across the Great Lakes through Monday.
930 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 (Issued 919 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023) Showers have diminished and pushed out of the area this evening as high pressure slides southward across the region. High pressure also looks to push the clouds out across the central WI tonight, and paired with light winds, temps could fall below 40F, especially for areas along and north of the Wisconsin River Valley. Overnight, high pressure to our north will expand and push more dry air south, breaking up our cloud cover. Winds will be light with highs in the low 70s.
Highs inch closer to normal in the low to mid 80s for most.
1017 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023 Upper low that brought precip to the area has filled in with rain diminishing. Upper high pressure over southern Canada will continue to push southward as another upper low is over northwestern NV.
Southerly flow around that high pressure will continue to aid in bringing moisture to the state.
Temperatures will remain tricky, depending upon overall cloud cover and amount of drier/cooler air that can move into the northern counties. This is in response to a digging upper trough that will be moving towards the region Tuesday night.
344 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023 (Issued 344 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023) Today through Tuesday: Cloud cover may be a bit pesky over far srn WI this morning as the upper trough over central WI weakens and slows as it runs into the upper ridge over the central and srn MS River Valley. At the sfc, high pressure will prevail with a lake breeze expected. Lgt wly winds and warm advection will begin tnt and last into Tue until a backdoor cold front arrives during the afternoon. This front is in response to a large, digging upper trough that will swing into New England from Canada from Tue into Wed.
Given expected light winds and dry boundary layer, felt valley temps might get a touch cooler than forecast. Northeast flow will diminish in intensity through the overnight hours as high pressure drifts overhead. High pressure overhead for Monday will limit mixing through the day, though during the overnight hours a more organized westerly low level component will develop as high pressure sinks southwards. BUFKIT profiles support skinny CAPE before cold frontal passage.
High pressure and continued near-normal temperature will persevere Mon as an ern-CONUS low and midwestern ridge maintain nwly flow aloft in the Great Lakes region. A pattern shift is expected mid-late week as a low digs into the nrn Rockies and shunts the midwestern ridge ewd.
A cold front will drop down Tuesday but no rain is expected at this time.
1214 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) Current satellite shows clouds continue streaming in from the north behind a cold front that moved into the area yesterday. The cold front isn't obvious looking at surface evaluations, but a look at 850mb charts show a good line of convergence running from the Red River to the Trans Pecos with warmer and more unstable air to the south. Temperatures will be similar to today, perhaps a couple of degrees warmer and still below normal for this time of year.
342 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023 High pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic coast today, then push off the coast tonight through Tuesday morning.
Ridging above us gives us clear to mostly clear skies and sunshine through mid- week.
339 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023 Discussion/Marine/FireWeather --Cold temperatures this morning-- As per the previous forecast the overnight temperatures remain on track to be at and below freezing along the US 10 corridor and in the low 30s through much of central Michigan. -- Mild weather and dry through most of the week -- The early week will be dominated by a large upper level low situated over Eastern Canada. This low will propagate southward sweeping a band of dry air and warmer temperatures today into tomorrow. However, following this warmer and drier air will be a moisture starved cold front.
Tonight and Monday As a low pressure system over the Middle Mississippi Valley continues to drop further south this evening, dry air associated with a high pressure system will move over Wisconsin. Lowered overnight low temperatures to the low to middle 30s across the north as a decent set up for radiational cooling looks to occur. The high pressure and dry air will prevail on Monday, so anticipate plenty of sunshine. High temperatures will also be warmer with readings mainly in the 70s away from the lake, middle to upper 60s along the lake.
Upper ridge across the gulf coast is expected to weaken and sag south tonight into Monday. Models suggest potential for rain continues into Monday as short wave lifts north across the central plains along the periphery of the upper level ridge.
A dome of ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada through the week this week. At the same time, a low pressure system will continue to migrate north and west out of the Great Basin into central Washington. While the ridge has brought well above normal temperatures to areas of Oregon, Washington and Canada, the influence of this low pressure system has kept the warmer temperatures at bay in the Northern Rockies. For the next 3 days, the aforementioned low pressure system will begin to aide in the development of afternoon and evening thunderstorms each of the 3 days. Ensemble members agree that the ridge of high pressure will strengthen my the end of this week and this weekend.
Thunderstorm chances will increase on Tuesday, aided by an upper level disturbance and weak cold frontal passage.
High pressure will maintain dry conditions, relatively light winds, and seasonable temperature.
1137 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023 Showers have been increasing in and near the higher terrain early this evening, as another surge of slightly cooler air, has enhanced upslope flow. Scattered light rain showers are in place over the CWA with cloudy skies over the plains and mostly cloudy skies over the high country. Upper ridging builds into the CWA on Monday along with weak subsidence. Earlier models pointed to some lee troughing which would bring warmer temperatures and more instability, but now we're seeing signs of a weak backdoor cold front pushing onto the plains.
Monday night into Tuesday morning will see cool high pressure move out of the area with lighter west to northwest winds expected to develop. Tuesday will be a nice day with lighter winds and warmer temperatures.
Clouds and showers keep temperatures cooler here as well, hovering in the lower to mid 60s. Cool high pressure slides south slowly Tuesday and Tuesday night, with a vort max dropping southeast across western SD.
On Tuesday more widespread precipitation is expected as an area of low pressure will move just south of the region.
/JNE/ Tuesday, we will begin to see a pattern change as the upper ridge breaks down, allowing for a less subsident regime and increased flow aloft. 7 inches and dewpoints in the lower 70s.
A bit warmer to start the workweek with highs reaching into the low to mid 70s Monday and Tuesday.
(Today and Tonight) An area of low pressure aloft, currently evident on mosaic radar spinning over the Red River and lifting north, was likely produced from convection down near the Gulf Coast last night. The system is expected to continue north this morning before turning to the northeast this afternoon and tonight, as the broader upper trough over the central CONUS shifts east. The highest PoPs should initially be over NE OK, shifting toward NW AR this afternoon in tandem with the wave.
Ridging aloft over the SE U. and weak surface ridging over the peninsula remain in place this morning with a pocket of drier air aloft extending across the peninsula from the Atlantic north of a mid/upper low over the N Caribbean/FL Straits. Pattern aloft begins to change on Tuesday as broad troughing deepens over the E CONUS, shunting the ridging and low aloft into the W Atlantic, allowing the current easterly flow over the state to shift to westerly by mid week.
Clouds will decrease from the north this afternoon with highs in the lower 70s.
101 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023 Aviation -- Freezing or frost conditions north and east overnight -- After coordination with surrounding offices will issue a freeze warning for Lake, Osceola, and Clare Counties where lowest dewpoints will enable temperatures to dip just below freezing for perhaps a few hours. Although air temperatures here will be slightly warmer, we expect radiational cooling to be substantial and this will allow air immediately adjacent to surfaces to drop below freezing in many locations and permit frost given the slightly greater dewpoints.
1230 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through Monday, which will bring dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. A cold front will pass through the area on Tuesday, which will bring a chance for some rain showers, mainly in Central New York.
Temperatures were in the lower and middle 50s with dew points ranging from 40 in Davenport and Dubuque to 52 in Washington. Temperatures will be cooler SW, with highs there only getting into the low to mid 60s due to the rain and thicker clouds.
206 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023 While high pressure will persist into Monday evening, an upper disturbance will bring clouds and perhaps some very light rain late tonight into Monday. Low pressure will track across Kentucky on Tuesday bringing a better chance of rain, especially across northern Kentucky, southeast Indiana, and southern Ohio. The low levels are fairly dry, but this may still be enough for a few sprinkles or light rain showers to move into mainly our western areas late. Low pressure moving east through Kentucky on Tuesday will bring showers to the region during the day, more likely along and south of the Ohio River. This ridge moves south in the evening in response to a dry cold front that quickly drops south overnight in response to a strengthening high pressure center over the northern Great Lakes.
147 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through Monday, which will bring dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. A cold front will pass through the area on Tuesday, which will bring a chance for some rain showers, mainly in Central New York.
(Today through Tuesday) A slowly weakening ridge at 500 mb will persist across Alabama today, and the associated anticyclonic flow should contribute to some subsidence near the center of the ridge. However, with the slight weakening of the ridge, scattered showers and storms appear possible this afternoon into the early evening. Significant height falls will take place on Tuesday as a trough moves in from the northwest.
1058 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023 With the midlevel cutoff low still drifting back to the west across the Great Basin, most of Wyoming remains generally in the middle of a col between two ridges and two troughs.
219 AM MDT Mon May 15 2023 08z surface analysis had weak trough from northern MN into southeast WY. Water vapour showed leftover weak upper trough circulation over western SD with main effect being some mid/high clouds.
Cooler temperatures are expected today with cool advection with northeasterly winds.
348 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023 High pressure continues to take hold over the area through tonight.
Much of the low clouds will also begin to break by the afternoon hours with the potential for some peeks of sunshine.