Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Rising heights for Sunday as southwestern ridge begins to slowly move into western Wyoming.
High pressure will be in control into Sunday with drier air above the surface, ending any real chance of rain.
Ridging will begin to build northward across the state and start to shut off the convection and bring summer like temperatures. The top of the ridge will still be close enough for a spotty thunderstorm across the north, especially near the mountains, but the vast majority of the area will be dry.
651 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions are expected for today as the upper-level ridge begins to strengthen across West Central Texas into Sunday. Slightly warmer high temperatures are expected today in the mid 90s to near 100, with overnight lows remaining in the mid 70s.
528 AM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023 An upper ridge will be building eastward through the weekend bringing generally dry weather and warming temperatures to northeast Montana. With the slight unstable northwest flow still across Montana today, there is potential for a few random showers or thunderstorms to pop up, generally across the higher terrain of central Montana, but could be further east. As the ridge builds east, the convective potential will diminish.
2) The overall pattern begins to shift toward a warmer and drier pattern by Sunday. Discussion: The forecast challenge will be focused on how unstable the environment can get in this "cooler" NW flow regime. At long last, the unsettled pattern looks to come to and beginning on Sunday where a strong ridge begins to move into the region bringing warmer temperatures and drier weather to the region.
Begin this forecast period with an upper level ridge located upstream.
519 AM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Current surface analysis shows weakening cool front pushing south into the area, with high pressure centered to the north of the region. Upper level analysis shows large low over the Hudson Bay region, with weak ridging over the Great Basin region. A somewhat drier pattern can be expected over the next few days as ridge to the west gradually moves over the Rockies.
629 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging remains centered over northern Mexico early this morning with west-northwesterly flow aloft continuing over much of the central CONUS.
Weak upper level trough will persist over the Eastern Pacific through the weekend keeping a west to southwest onshore flow pattern over NorCal.
Onshore flow will continue through the weekend for slightly cooler temperatures.
Ridging begins to gradually building in over the area today, but it won't be strong enough yet to shut off the moisture heading into eastern Idaho.
606 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 (Today through Sunday Night ) West-northwesterly flow will prevail aloft over AR through the period between strong high pressure centered over the southwest US and broad low pressure over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. For tonight, convective activity over eastern OK/northwest AR will be enhanced by a weak cold front dropping south into the area from KS/MO. Mostly cloudy and noticeably cooler conditions with widespread light to moderate precipitation are on tap for Sunday as the cold front stalls somewhere over central to south central AR. Highs Sunday afternoon will range from the lower 70s over the northern higher terrain to the lower 80sover the far south.
The ridge axis lies across the Straits of Florida and can be seen clearly using visible satellite imagery. Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 90s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s.
545 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Dry and warm today as high pressure drifts across the region. A area of showers and storms will likely move into far western counties this evening, supported by the advancing trough aloft and its associated cold front. Redevelopment is possible later Sunday afternoon as the upper trough approaches and we see an enhancement in large-scale forcing. The upper trough pushes off to the east Sunday night and rain chances quickly taper off from west to east as a result.
A ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies this weekend. Convection on Sunday will be less as more dry air makes its way into the region under this ridge.
Net cell movement may be close to zero, suggesting propagation of storm cells today will be driven by circular outflow with potential to get anchored on the Blue Ridge where easterly upglide will be most persistent. Upstream trough and cold front will be crossing the Ohio Valley tonight with showers/storms associated with this feature moving into and across areas west of I-81 after midnight, clouds and showers then persisting into Sunday morning across the mountains. A strong cold front will create showers and thunderstorms especially east of the Blue ridge. High temperatures Sunday will range from the lower 70s in the mountains to the mid 80s in the Piedmont.
726 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Dry and warm today as high pressure drifts across the region. An area of showers and storms will likely move into far western counties this evening, supported by the advancing trough aloft and its associated cold front. Redevelopment is possible later Sunday afternoon as the upper trough approaches and we see an enhancement in large-scale forcing. The upper trough pushes off to the east Sunday night and rain chances quickly taper off from west to east as a result.
Moisture is expected to gradually increase over Arizona with the southerly flow from the high pulling Gulf moisture northward. Given the placement of the ridge, any shower activity this weekend will largely be limited to New Mexico, with only a slight chance of some showers over the White Mountains. The vast majority of the area will liekly see continued dry conditions, with increasing afternoon cloud cover over the higher terrain through the weekend.
After a quiet and mostly dry start to the day, showers and storms will begin to ramp up quickly by late morning or early afternoon as a pre-frontal trough approaches from the west. synoptically there is a Quasi Omega blocking pattern, with a SW herculean high over Land of Enchantment to AZ and a highly anomalous low (3 SD below climo) over N Manitoba and low along British Columbia coast. As the upper level trough axis is slow to push out. Trough axis should sweep through by Sunday evening. As the trough swings through Sunday night, dew pts will go from the upper 60s and low 70s, down into the lower to mid 60s by daybreak. Cool Canadian high pressure dominating the surface pattern with NW flow aloft.
The low-level ridge axis remains surpressed well south/east of ECFL.
627 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 (Today through Sunday) 500mb ridge is slowly building eastward with the center expected to remain over West Texas and Desert SW Sunday. Temperatures begin to increase once again with more sun, the building ridge and the obvious minimal to no rain coverage.
1201 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions are expected for today as the upper-level ridge begins to strengthen across West Central Texas into Sunday. Slightly warmer high temperatures are expected today in the mid 90s to near 100, with overnight lows remaining in the mid 70s.
1220 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Western NOAM ridge will slowly shift east and breakdown as the central Canadian upper trough remains in place.
222 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Quieter weather approaches as the cold front, which brought showers/drizzle to the region today passes through the remainder of the afternoon. Seasonably cool temperatures with dry conditions are expected in the wake of the front with some very patchy, shallow fog development possible late tonight due to cooling and residual moisture present in the low levels. As we move into tomorrow, with a high pressure system approaching our area, temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 80s with the development of a lake breeze, generating cooler temps near the lake shore.
High pressure continues to build as clouds across northern Nevada dissipate this evening. High pressure centered over southern Arizona and New Mexico continues to gradually build into the CWA. For Sunday, the high pressure system will continue to strengthen. However, a weak upper level low located over central California will help to enhance the southerly wind flow generated by the high pressure system. High temps are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s in valleys and 70s-80s in higher elevations. Sunday night will see mostly clear skies, reduced winds, and slightly cooler low temps, compared to Saturday night, with readings forecast to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s for central Nevada and mid to upper 50s for northern Nevada.
311 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 After a few showers south of I-70 early this evening, a cooler and drier airmass will settle into central Illinois tonight. Partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail on Sunday with highs topping out in the lower to middle 80s. 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front settling southward toward the Ohio River. Cooler/drier conditions will filter into the region on light northwesterly winds behind the front. Thanks to ample sunshine heating the dry airmass, highs on Sunday will climb back into the lower to middle 80s.
Thunderstorm coverage will be on the rise this afternoon and evening due to the trough's influence and a destabilizing atmosphere. Main upper trough axis and associated cold front will shift southeastward through Middle Tennessee on Sunday into Sunday night, bringing another round of showers and storms to the area.
944 AM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Warmer conditions are forecast for the next few days, along with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Clear and calm conditions are found across the area this morning as high pressure remains settled into the area. A few showers and thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain of Southwestern Montana and along the Rocky Mountain Front. Begin this forecast period with an upper level ridge located upstream.
The lack of cloud cover has allowed temperatures to soar into the lower to mid 90s. The Florida Keys remain along a ridge axis that extends from the western North Atlantic across the Bahamas.
This had not been well represented in the ensembles up through current and even the high- resolution hourly model output hasn't done great with it here today, so these had to be accounted for this afternoon.
111 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 (Today through Sunday) 500mb ridge is slowly building eastward with the center expected to remain over West Texas and Desert SW Sunday. Temperatures begin to increase once again with more sun, the building ridge and the obvious minimal to no rain coverage.
Highs today still expected to be in the lower to isolated mid 90s (currently most areas already upper 80s to lower 90s). Expect lows tonight to fall into the lower to middle 70's once again, with the warmer temps closer to the coast.
1111 AM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Current surface analysis shows weakening cool front pushing south into the area, with high pressure centered to the north of the region. Upper level analysis shows large low over the Hudson Bay region, with weak ridging over the Great Basin region. A somewhat drier pattern can be expected over the next few days as ridge to the west gradually moves over the Rockies.
Upper ridge amplifies ahead of feature. Models continue to hint at some moisture lingering around the periphery of the ridge, so isolated thunderstorms will remain possible mainly across the northern zones Sunday afternoon and evening. Downvalley wind flow early in the day may be sufficient to support Lake Wind Advisory for American Falls Reservoir, given the lower thresholds from that direction.
146 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Dry and warm today as high pressure drifts across the region. An area of showers and storms will likely move into far western counties this evening, supported by the advancing trough aloft and its associated cold front. Redevelopment is possible later Sunday afternoon as the upper trough approaches and we see an enhancement in large-scale forcing. The upper trough pushes off to the east Sunday night and rain chances quickly taper off from west to east as a result.
Weak high pressure drifts into the east central plains overnight and into IL on Sunday. Highs Sunday in the lower 80s, with more comfortable dewpoints in the upper 50s/lower 60s.
The right entrance region of a 40 knot jet at 500mb will be moving across Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches from the Northern Plains.
621 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A potent cold front will track through our region this afternoon with additional scattered showers or thunderstorms, especially east of the Hudson River. As the upper trough and associated upper energy tracks through our region midday through this evening, the associated low level cold front and wind shift will provide the low level forcing that will support development of additional showers and isolated thunderstorms.
617 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023 (Today and tonight) A subtropical ridge remains in place across the southern Plains this morning. Overnight lows look to remain in the low 80s given the hot airmass in place across the region.
706 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 Cold front moves into and through the area today, with isolated convection possible across the southern CSRA.
943 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A weak ridge of high pressure will gradually build into the Ohio Valley through tonight. The high will move east on Wednesday ahead of the next round of showers and thunderstorms expected to begin Wednesday night.
630 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Mid-level ridging will remain in place through the period. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Currently - A surface through lower level ridge stretches east/west across the Florida Peninsula. Short Term Update - The surface through lower level ridge will remain across Florida this afternoon. The ridge will likely disrupted some by day time heating. A ridge across Florida will maintain light east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters.
More reminiscent of an early fall pattern, with an active storm track to our north, but a ridge southeast of Arizona has kept the Monsoonal moisture boundary nearby.
(Today and tonight) A subtropical ridge remains in place across the southern Plains this morning. Overnight lows look to remain in the low 80s given the hot airmass in place across the region.
1042 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 Breezy, cooler and less humid today with a few light showers possible over the northern tier of central PA.
In addition, west to southwesterly flow prevails keeping the highest chances of showers and storms over interior locations this afternoon.
1003 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 Cold front moves into and through the area today, with isolated convection possible across the southern CSRA.
735 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 Quite breezy, cooler and less humid conditions will occur today in the wake of a cold front.
1018 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A cold front will move through the area this morning, then stall to our south tonight and early Wednesday. The front will be followed by weak high pressure today through Wednesday.
648 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023 (Today) As of late, a cold front has moved south and east of the greater Tennessee Valley.
A dry day is expected on Wednesday as high pressure passes overhead.
Some drier air in the mid levels, largely owing to the subsidence from the upper ridge, will also support some strong downburst winds.
133 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023 Satellite imagery shows upper low moving out of southeast ID and into western WY. Our southern mountains and foothills (per proximity to the low) will see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms til around sunset. As the WY low continues to the move to the east-southeast, a period of ridging will bring us dry conditions late tonight and Wednesday. Next Pacific trof and cold front will provide ascent for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving west to east Wednesday night.
Meanwhile, the main upper-level trough moves through the Upper Great Lakes allowing for a weak cold front to slide south across northern Wisconsin. Given the drier trend, did bump temperatures up a bit across the area, with highs ranging from the lower 80s along the WI/IL border to upper 80s further north.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Mid-level ridging will remain in place through the period.
919 AM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023 Upper low over southeast ID will track eastward thru WY today. JKL Water vapor imagery was showing an upper low over southeast Oregon moving into southwest Idaho. Upper ridging moves in for Wednesday. This will provide a mostly dry day, along with warmer temperatures. This will send a cold front through. Temperatures will be a little warmer than we have experienced lately. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 80s.
----BMickelson Previous discussion: NE Montana will be in NW flow aloft today with an upper low over Manitoba and an upper ridge to the west. It will also drop a cold front across southern Saskatchewan and the northeast half of the forecast area before it becomes stationary this evening. Upper ridge moves through eastern Montana on Wednesday which will bring warmer temperatures to most of NE Montana. The ridge moves to the east Wednesday Night.
In the low levels, good WAA and an influx of theta-e will help boost buoyancy despite abundant cloud cover.
With our upper ridge displaced to the south, we may have a repeat of convective activity embedded in the westerlies impinging on our CWA tonight into Wednesday morning.
For Wednesday, transitory ridge axis moves swiftly east out of the region during the daytime hours with a warm front moving rapidly east across the region on the head of a strong westerly jet streak by evening.
Low level surface convergence pairs with around 500 to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE, with the highest west of US-31. More sunshine around today will enable a return to more seasonably normal high temperatures in the low 80s. One note with this system is that the vort max/trough on the EC appears much weaker in amplitude for this time frame and has much residence time within the rain.
Otherwise, the upper ridge will build over the area from the Rockies resulting in dry conditions.
212 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A cold front will stall to our south tonight and early Wednesday. The front will be followed by weak high pressure today through Wednesday.
229 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 High pressure moves across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon.
An upper-level low pressure system is moving across far southeastern Idaho and into Wyoming this afternoon. There were a few showers associated with this low across parts of Idaho earlier today, but those have moved on. Outside of northwest Montana, most of the storms today will be confined to the higher terrain. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front.
Northwest flow develops on Wednesday, with ridging approaching Wednesday night. Weak high pressure will result in dry conditions overnight Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 80s.
The low that brought showers and storms to the area early this morning continues to pinwheel eastward and out of our area this evening. With the increase in southwest winds, more sunshine and weak ridging, our highs on Wednesday will pop back into the mid and upper 80s for the Magic Valley and lower Snake Plain with low to mid 80s in the upper half of the Snake Plain and the rest of the lower elevations.
Partly cloudy skies has allowed most areas to warm into the low 80s. Diurnal mixing this afternoon has dried out the low levels some. Optimal radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall towards dewpoints in the low-mid 60s by early tomorrow morning.
For wednesday, surface ridging will produce a mostly dry day until early evening. By early evening, an approaching upper trough with associated jet dynamics will begin to increase the low-level jet over the Tennessee valley. This will pull of warm frontal boundary northward toward southern Tennessee with increasing isentropic lift.
310 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A cold front will stall to our south tonight and early Wednesday. The front will be followed by weak high pressure today through Wednesday.
The consensus track remains primarily north of the forecast area, however additional convection is likely to develop along and north of advancing warm front with this corridor extending from NE OK through NW AR late tonight into early Wed. The evolution of the sfc pattern ahead of this wave remains somewhat uncertain, but a plausible scenario is that a strongly unstable warm sector develops across the fcst area by Wed afternoon marked on the western side by the advancing cold front with a remnant outflow boundary from early day storms intersecting the front near a weak area of low pressure.
Otherwise, expect dry conditions today as an upper ridge builds in from the west. Temperatures will be a little warmer today, but still around 5 degrees below normal.
Issued by National Weather Service San Juan PR 1252 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Mid-level ridging will remain in place through the period. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Dangerous heat and critically dry conditions across all of Strong high pressure continues to dominate the region, keeping dangerously hot and dry conditions in the forecast into Wednesday and likely beyond.
A closed low pressure system is spinning over the central Rockies, spreading scattered thunderstorms across northern Wyoming and far southern Montana. By Wednesday afternoon, the ridge of high pressure will re-assert itself and push away all chances for precipitation.
A somewhat nebulous surface pattern will be in place as aforementioned upper-level features will support a cyclone that will trek north of the CWA across Ontario over Hudson Bay and high pressure over the southeast CONUS. Fumes of instability south of the bridge make thunder unlikely with this activity, while a few hundred joules of MLCAPE has already supported a few strikes across eastern upper. Warm Wednesday then Noticeably Cooler.
The first is activity blooming on and just south of surface cold front, which will sink to near the GA/FL line overnight.
319 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 High pressure moves across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon.
The surface cold front is expected to sink southward and become oriented across southern portions of southeast MS, far southwest AL, and into the vicinity of the western FL panhandle by late this afternoon. Increasing cloud and convective coverage may squash the higher heat index values over a good portion of our area by later this afternoon.
Upper low continues to spin over southern Manitoba/Ontario, with a decent vort coming down and bringing a cold front for our CWA. Pre- frontal trough has been swinging through east central ND and northwestern MN, with thunderstorms across much of our southern and eastern CWA. The first round that developed along the Highway 2 corridor earlier has nearly fizzled out, but some additional storms have been developing further south near Highway 200 and Highway 10 where ML CAPE values have been getting to around 2000 J/kg. Storms will continue into this evening as the main cold front comes down into region. Northwesterly flow will continue into tomorrow, with a reinforcing vort on the backside of the low moving through Canada. Instability behind the cold front is pretty weak, so thunder chances will be mainly near the SD border.
- Cooler Wednesday, temperatures will be mostly near normal for the remainder of the forecast.
308 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 High pressure over the Tennessee Valley keeps our area dry overnight into Wednesday morning.
The earlier MCS from the weak cold front made its way out of the coverage area bringing high temperatures from the mid/upper 70s to 80s along and north of I-20 to mid 80s/low 90s in areas south of I- 20. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low/upper 70s.