Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(The rest of this afternoon ) Upper low is currently lifting slowly northeast into western Iowa early this afternoon. Winds will subside this evening with scattered high clouds overnight into Wednesday as secondary upper wave/trough axis swings through the southern Plains.
As the Low moves eastward the wrap around lingering snowfall from the weakened deformation zone across north central Nebraska will continue to move with the system eastward and out of the area by early evening. As for tonight, lowered temperatures a few degrees, mainly across western and southwest Nebraska, where there is fresh snow pack, light winds under 10 mph and less confidence in thick cloud coverage, trended towards the cooler models. Across north central Nebraska and portions of the Sandhills, kept low temperatures on trend with previous forecast, although there is a deep fresh snow pack in the area, winds will be a little stronger through the overnight, around 10 to 15 mph and more confidence in widespread mid to upper cloud coverage, should keep them in the low to mid teens.
158 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 The chance for showers and a few thunderstorms returns late this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.
1118 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 (Today and tonight) The wind machine dials back a bit today in the wake of yesterday's upper cyclone currently entering southern Nebraska. At the surface, a W-E trough in the TX Panhandle will align itself more NW-SE today across our NE zones while resembling more of a backdoor cold front. Later this morning we may see brief and spotty advisory level winds as mixing taps into a layer of 30-35 knots aligned along the Highway 84 corridor, before this layer deamplifies soon thereafter.
There will be thin cirrus clouds over the region tonight as a weak upper level short wave trough over the southern Rockies moves east across the southern plains Wednesday. Lows will be mild tonight with readings a little cooler Wednesday night.
/Issued 1211 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023/ /Through Wednesday/ After a couple of warm days, it feels slightly cooler and drier today today with temperatures in the 60s and dewpoints in the 20s/30s as of 12 PM CST. Highs will range from the upper 60s to low 70s later today which is still 10-20 degrees warmer than normal for early January. The departing low pressure system will send another weak but dry cold front late tonight into tomorrow, bringing a wind shift to the NW and cooler temperatures.
However, with wrap around warm advection in the lower to mid levels care of a nearly stationary upper level low pressure that will drift into southern MN, off and on light to moderate snow will continue into Wednesday night, with the better chances near and east of Interstate 29 after tonight.
1103 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 (The rest of today ) Considerably drier and cooler air has settled over the area behind yesterday's cold front passage.
(The rest of today ) Considerably drier and cooler air has settled over the area behind yesterday's cold front passage.
A narrow mean layer ridge persists across the western North Atlantic and the extreme western North Atlantic, with strong subsidence noted on water vapor imagery along its eastern flank near the Bahamas. A subtropical low-level anticyclone reaches west-southwest across southern Florida, which supports moderate east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys. Skies are mostly sunny, the KBYX radar is echo free, and temperatures are in the lower 80s. Moderate east to southeast breezes will persist for the next 24 to 36 hours as the low level ridge drives relatively dry and stable air into the Keys.
Additionally, satellite imagery and mesoanalysis currently show a mid/upper low over the northern Bighorns. As skies become a bit clearer overnight, fog is looking increasingly likely across the lower basins Wednesday morning, especially given the snowpack and the brief period of patchy fog noted this morning. The Cody area and most of Johnson County could benefit from some mixing winds Wednesday afternoon, with temperatures briefly peaking above freezing.
(Through Tonight) High pressure will be east of the region through Tonight, as a cold front approaches from the west northwest. Lows Tonight will range in the lower to middle 60s.
(This evening through Wednesday night) As the main H500 low pressure system departs northeast into the upper Midwest and gives those folks an abundance of snow, we will remain dry throughout the short term forecast period. With temperatures near to slightly below average throughout the day today, cooler temperatures will continue into tonight with low temperatures ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s.
1254 PM MST Tue Jan 3 2023 Deep upper trough and associate winter storm exiting the region this afternoon, with lingering light snow and breezy conds over parts of scentral SD.
1122 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 A deep area of closed low pressure is located across the central plains this morning. The negative tilt to the system has allowed this moisture to advect westward into the High Plains where a deformation axis of snow has materialized early this morning.
1130 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 (Today through Tomorrow Night) The anticipated cold front is currently making its way through the area. The rest of the short term will be dominated by high pressure building in the wake of the cold front's exit. Expect drier (no more dew points in the low 70s!) and cooler/near normal temperatures. Today's high temperatures (low to mid 70s) will be occuring between now and the mid morning before the cold front pushes through. The low temperatures tonight will be about 10 degrees cooler compared to the previous night with temperatures in the mid 40s to near 50. Cooler weather prevails on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 60s north of Conroe and low 70s elsewhere. Clear skies and light winds will bring low temperatures Wednesday night down into the low to mid 40s area-wide.
After that, seasonally cooler and drier air returns more early January "normal" temperatures to the forecast, with 50s/40s replacing 70s/60s for highs, and 30s/20s replacing the most recent 40s for lows.
Otherwise, warmer and slightly drier conditions will return. Spotty areas of ice pellets and freezing rain have also been observed this morning and could be possible into this afternoon as well. The edits that were made to the evening forecast package remain intact, which mainly involved smoothing out the QPF amounts along the higher terrain. We'll see a brief ridge build-up on Wednesday, allowing a slight warming trend to occur.
As the showers move across the higher terrain later this morning, a period of snow is expected generally above 4500-5000 feet with accumulations up to 3 inches possible above 5500 feet. Attention then turns toward a very impressive low pressure trough developing well west of northern California tonight through Wednesday. This system will create all kinds of weather related problems across much of California, but it is forecast to almost completely miss our region with upper level ridging mostly in place.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Key Messages: - Light to Moderate Snow over west central and north central Iowa through Wednesday and may mix with freezing drizzle at times. - Fog may be locally dense especially along and north of the Highway 20 corridor into this evening. A warm front has moved into southeast Iowa with temperatures in the 60s in the far southeast while readings are in the 20s in northwest Iowa. It is also possible that ice introduction is lost at times which would lead to a switch to freezing drizzle.
Given all of this support, we will continue the Dense Fog Advisory for the Hill and Northern Blaine Counties until 9 AM MST Wednesday, thereafter a gradual improvement is expected and southwesterly winds will help to advect in "drier" low level air and "warmer" temperatures.
Regions that have had some of the higher snowfall totals through the past couple days are also beginning to report BLSN as part of its weather observation. Wind gusts of 60-70mph in the higher terrain combined with recent snowfall will create near blizzard conditions at times. Went ahead and upgraded the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for the eastern Platte County and Central Laramie County zones. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s for the high plains/lower terrain as upper level ridging begins to propagate towards the region. The strong winds will continue across the higher terrain, and Interstate 80 corridor.
--Dense Fog Threat Tonight and Wednesday Morning-- Sfc warm front is still located just south of the MI/IN border but expected to make some northward progress tonight before becoming a triple point/occlusion overhead on Wednesday. One limiting factor this evening for dense fog is the potential for a decent batch of showers (and perhaps even isolated tstms) to come through, which would temporarily mix out the lower visibilities.
626 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 As the area of low pressure and warm front advance slowly toward and into the area, the visibility will get progressively lower with dense fog likely. Deep and stacked cyclone continues to slowly rotate through the Cornbelt. Luckily for our area low level temperatures continue to gradually warm with a bulk of the forecast area at or above freezing as of this afternoon. Visibilities to the south have been dense and with southern counties aligned north of warm front would not be surprised if fog spreads. WEDNESDAY: Colder air will filter in tomorrow across all areas limiting precipitation type to just snow as upper low continues slow migration.
The rain, freezing rain, and sleet that had been observed across southern and southeastern MN has mostly changed over to snow, except near Eau Claire. This has replaced the snow with drizzle/freezing drizzle as the DGZ has dried but the low-levels remain saturated. The drizzle/freezing drizzle will continue northeast (following the dry slot) into west-central WI this evening. Snow will continue across western and southwestern MN into Wednesday and gradually spread east overnight into Wednesday morning as the low stalls near LSE.
932 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 Patchy light rain is possible tonight, with more widespread rain expected Wednesday with crossing low pressure. Low pressure will persist across the Midwest tonight. The aforementioned low pressure should become vertically stacked across the Midwest Wednesday, maintaining the forecast area within the warm sector.
Cold with slightly below normal temperatures with surface trof across central Montana and high pressure in the northern Plains. A weak upper trof swings across the state on Wednesday, and may be enough to scour out the the low level moisture and coldest air and ending the foggy conditions.
848 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 00Z upper air analysis places a mid-level trough axis over portions of the Plains, Rockies, and Upper Midwest with an upper level low located over Iowa this evening. Meanwhile, 02Z surface analysis still places an occluding cold front from Central Iowa south through Central Illinois and along the Mississippi River in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Mid-afternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed a deep closed upper low centered over northeast Nebraska. At the surface, an occluded front extended across southern IA, to a cold front that extended south through the middle and lower MS River Valley. This cold front was not particularly well-defined as it extended across AR.
In the lower levels, normal drainage wind patterns are expected tonight. There is enough in the lower levels of the mountains to warrant "likely" light snow all night. However, they should be a good 10 degrees F warmer on Wednesday over the Stratus-ed in areas of today.
As of 0230z, the boundary layer remains pretty "worked over" from earlier convection, but a warmer and more unstable air mass is attempting to advect into portions of the area. Additionally, the mean storm motion parallel to the cold front will also create a setup favorable for training, especially in our eastern areas -- and subsequently localized flash flooding and heavy rainfall.
Satellite imagery shows departing low well to our east (moving into MN/IA), having undercut a region of high pressure centered over southern Saskatchewan.
523 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) As the main H500 low pressure system departs northeast into the upper Midwest and gives those folks an abundance of snow, we will remain dry throughout the short term forecast period. With temperatures near to slightly below average throughout the day today, cooler temperatures will continue into tonight with low temperatures ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s.
647 PM MST Tue Jan 3 2023 Evening Update: Adjusted the weather grids to show more accurate coverage of the dense freezing fog based on current satellite imagery trends. Cold with slightly below normal temperatures with surface trof across central Montana and high pressure in the northern Plains. A weak upper trof swings across the state on Wednesday, and may be enough to scour out the the low level moisture and coldest air and ending the foggy conditions. A few sites may see intermittent VFR conditions, but VLIFR or LIFR in dense freezing fog is expected to prevail through the overnight and morning hours.
552 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 Periods of rain will continue through Wednesday with crossing low pressure. Low pressure will persist across the Midwest tonight. The aforementioned low pressure should become vertically stacked across the Midwest Wednesday, maintaining the forecast area within the warm sector.
High pressure will hold over the region tonight and Wednesday with continued warm rather humid conditions. The warm moist southerly flow over the relatively cooler coastal waters will create favorable conditions for sea fog to develop late Wednesday and into Wednesday night.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon clearly showing upper low pressure centered over eastern NE slowly lifting toward the upper Midwest. Late tonight into Wednesday, soundings suggesting patchy freezing drizzle possible over portions of northeast NE as well as west-central IA.
A weak ridge associated with high pressure continues to build in the CWA bringing a reprieve from recent winter weather.
910 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 Periods of rain remain possible through midday Wednesday with an advancing cold front.
Mid-afternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed a deep closed upper low centered over northeast Nebraska. At the surface, an occluded front extended across southern IA, to a cold front that extended south through the middle and lower MS River Valley. This cold front was not particularly well-defined as it extended across AR.
742 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 Unseasonably mild and wet weather through Wednesday will trend cooler and drier by late week. However, model soundings support lingering drizzle and ridgetop fog across the northern mountains late tonight. A weak cold air damming signature is noted at 00Z, with slightly cooler readings east of the Allegheny Front. Model surface thte fields suggest this cool wedge and associated areas of valley fog should gradually erode overnight, so expect fairly uniform temps in the low to mid 50s by dawn, some 30-40 degrees above early January climo! Expect another round of rain/showers Wednesday afternoon and evening in advance of a wave of low pressure lifting out of the Ohio Valley and its trailing cold front.
709 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 (This evening through Wednesday Night) As the large upper level trough gradually drifts eastward over the Southern Plains this evening, southwest flow will become briefly zonal before shifting to northwest aloft.
632 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 The chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible into early this evening ahead of a cold front.
805 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 The lull before the cold front is currently happening.
A cold front continues to be in the forecast pushing storms and showers out of the CWA by midnight to early morning. Overnight lows are expected to dip into the high 40s in the west and the mid to high 60s in the east. Guidance continues to highlight an approaching cold front making its way across the region as we head into the overnight hours.
Guidance continues to highlight an approaching cold front making its way across the region as we head into the overnight hours.
609 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 (Rest of today through Wednesday) Warm and mostly dry conditions will continue through Wednesday across South Florida as the region remains under the influence of strong high pressure to our east over the Atlantic. Breezy southeast winds today will become more S/SE tomorrow as the high drifts further to the east. Near record warm high temps today and tomorrow with afternoon highs in the low to middle 80s. Low temps tonight in the lower 70s for the east coast metro, and mid to upper 60s elsewhere.
521 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 (The rest of this afternoon ) Upper low is currently lifting slowly northeast into western Iowa early this afternoon. Winds will subside this evening with scattered high clouds overnight into Wednesday as secondary upper wave/trough axis swings through the southern Plains.
The ridge of high pressure will remain present over the region on Wednesday keeping valley inversions, low clouds, and patchy fog.
With the main upper trough axis still to our west, decreasing clouds, and a SW flow through the column, we will remain rather mild on Wednesday afternoon, with temps in the 60s.
between an amplifying upper level ridge over the Intermountain West and a stalled, vertically stacked mid-latitude cyclone over the Upper MS River Valley. Snow melt on area roads, sidewalks, and parking lots will quickly turn to ice as temperatures fall below freezing after sunset.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Wednesday/ An upper ridge will briefly build across the western U. A weak cold front will also slide southward through the region Wednesday, bringing a reinforcement of dry and slightly cooler air. Lows tonight will stay above freezing, but will fall into the middle and upper 30s generally north of the I-20 corridor with 40s elsewhere.
518 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 - Cooler temperatures but still trending above normal.
646 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 (Through Tonight) High pressure will be east of the region through Tonight, as a cold front approaches from the west northwest. Lows Tonight will range in the lower to middle 60s.
418 PM MST Tue Jan 3 2023 Deep upper trough and associate winter storm exiting the region this afternoon, with lingering light snow and breezy conds over parts of scentral SD.
804 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 Unseasonably mild and wet weather through Wednesday will trend cooler and drier by late week. However, model soundings support lingering drizzle and ridgetop fog across the northern mountains late tonight. A weak cold air damming signature is noted at 00Z, with slightly cooler readings east of the Allegheny Front. Model surface thte fields suggest this cool wedge and associated areas of valley fog should gradually erode overnight, so expect fairly uniform temps in the low to mid 50s by dawn, some 30-40 degrees above early January climo! Expect another round of rain/showers Wednesday afternoon and evening in advance of a wave of low pressure lifting out of the Ohio Valley and its trailing cold front.
(Today through Thursday Night ) Cooler and drier air continues to filter into the state behind the cold front that pushed through the state on Tue.
1126 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Latest METSAT is showing cloud cover clearing out across much of the state, as the latest storm system and cold front push NE and Eward. Temperatures are topping out in the lower 60s to lower 70s this afternoon. The upper trough over the central U. Additional upper disturbances will round the base of the trough, moving across the south-central U. NW upper flow will return during the overnight period late Wed night, ahead of an approaching upper ridge. The cooler air mass will bring temps back to near (or slightly above) average.
Winds become onshore late tonight along the Nature Coast ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move into the Florida Pan Handle this afternoon, Cedar Key around sunrise tomorrow, I-4 corridor around lunch, then southwest Florida Thursday afternoon.
1246 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Patchy light rain is possible tonight, with more widespread rain expected Wednesday with crossing low pressure. Surface analysis shows a low pressure system centered across the midwest, with the attendant cold front extending southward through the Mississippi Valley. Some pockets of drizzle may continue, particularly across Chestnut and Laurel ridges, but the overnight period should be largely dry. As a result, Thursday's high temperature should average about ten or so degrees cooler than Wednesday's.
Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at 07Z Wednesday shows the primary vorticity max responsible for the early week system spinning over the Upper Midwest, embedded within the larger longwave trough over the central CONUS. Resulting cold advection will limit afternoon temperatures to the mid 40s to near 50, save for the northern zones where thicker cloud cover will restrict highs to the low 40s.
* ON/OFF PCPN INTO THU: mostly light snow, light-minor amounts Slow moving, stacked low pressure system meanders eastward over the next couple days, getting a nudge from an upper level ridge moving out of the rockies. Some hints that there could be a periodic loss of ice here and there, making drizzle/freezing drizzle more likely. * DRIER, QUIETER WEEKEND, START TO NEW WEEK SPC cluster analysis continues to suggest the region will come under the influence of an upper level ridge this weekend, continuing to influence the region for at least the early part of the new week - potentially the whole week. Overall, very little change is expected to occur through Wednesday evening as the area of low pressure drifts northeast out of northern Iowa into western Wisconsin.
All shower and thunderstorm activity along with surface cold front should push east of mid state region by later morning hours today. Surface and aloft high pressure influences over western contiguous U. will slowly shift eastward and start to influence mid state's weather through Thursday, bringing dry and cooler conditions. Highs will only be a few degrees warmer than seasonal normal values, ranging low to mid 50s.
1152 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 A cold front is roughly along a Opelousas to Grand Chenier line and continues to gradually move east. Thursday will be a little cooler, but highs still in the middle to upper 60s under mostly sunny skies.
However, with wrap around warm advection in the lower to mid levels care of a nearly stationary upper level low pressure that will drift into southern MN, off and on light to moderate snow will continue into Wednesday night, with the better chances near and east of Interstate 29 after tonight. Wednesday night into Thursday the low pressure finally shifts east and takes the snow chances with it. This will also drag in cooler temperatures with lows in the single digits and highs in the teens to mid 20s.
A mid/upper ridge will take its place, and should provide quiet weather for the midweek period. The center of a high pressure ridge will move across the forecast area early Thursday morning and allow south flow to return in the afternoon.
The fast moving weather disturbance that brought a brief period of shower activity yesterday morning is now across eastern New Mexico with upper level ridging beginning to build into the region from the west. The ridging will continue to amplify throughout the day today as it tracks eastward across the region, in response to the deepening trough off the coast of California. The strong atmospheric river that is about to blast much of California will miss our region to the northwest, but a secondary swath of moisture along the trailing cold front will try to make its way through southern California early Thursday.