Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The inverted trough mentioned in previous forecasts will continue to approach from the east leading to more reasonable temperatures for us, with heat index values "only" reaching 105-110. As the inverted trough travels across South Texas, a bit of positive vorticity will also move around the periphery of the high pressure that remains to the north leading to the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation is expected to diminish Friday night as the trough continue to move to the west.
Today's highs will be a few degrees cooler due to the cloud cover and showers and thunderstorms with temps reaching mid 80s to near 90. Heat indices will be slightly warmer than the break we have today, but confidence is low at the moment whether we will be back in heat advisory conditions.
Going into the overnight hours, thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in coverage along a warm front/stationary front near Lake Superior.
1148 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (Today through Friday) An inverted trough will approach the area today and move across South Texas tonight into Friday. However, there is a slight chance (10- 20% chance) that some of this activity can make it further inland Friday afternoon as the trough axis moves over South Texas and the seabreeze pushes inland. With tomorrow being slightly cooler than today and the increased cloud cover, heat indices across all of South Texas are expected to remain below 110 degrees with only isolated areas reaching the 110 degree threshold.
Temperatures today will climb into the upper 90s across the CWA; cooler in the higher regions of northeast Georgia.
Latest HREF guidance indicates that the highest coverage of storms and best potential for severe weather will be on Friday evening with arrival of a 50 kt mid level jet streak from the west.
(This evening through Friday) The mid/upper-level ridge centered across New Mexico will continue to be the primary weather influence for the Southern Plains for Friday. The primary sensible weather impact from the mid-level ridge will continue to be hot temperatures around ~5 to 10 deg F above- average for late July. A Heat Advisory was issued for north central Oklahoma, where confidence on heat indices between 105 to 108 deg F are the highest. The secondary sensible weather impact is northerly flow on the eastern periphery of the ridge will continue to allow for remnant convection and cloud cover to potentially move into northwest/northern Oklahoma during the morning hours.
We continued to run with the higher NAM dewpoints through Friday.
Latest 19Z guidance shows a more notable H500 perturbation is helping to develop thunderstorms over the high terrain.
Upper level ridge centered offshore will build west over the area this afternoon and overnight will be a limiting factor for convection. Thunderstorm probabilities appear lower than yesterday as triggers lacking combined with a stronger mid level cap due to ridge aloft. Substantial moisture increase expected for tomorrow, especially in the southeastern portion of the forecast area courtesy of an inverted trough moving south of the area and increasing onshore flow. Have trended temperatures down for Friday as well with MOS and blended guidance trending lower with high temps in the low to mid 90s with increased cloud coverage thanks to the deep moisture flux.
1033 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 A 600 dam ridge centered over New Mexico will push further into the Mid-South this afternoon. Temperatures are currently in the upper 80s but expected to increase and reach the mid 90s this afternoon with the expansion of the ridge. An upper level ridge continues to push east across the United States and produce a hot and generally dry forecast for the Mid- South.
1144 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (Today and tonight) Thicknesses edge lower today as an upper high over New Mexico flattens while becoming more elongated. Much of this process stems from a few impulses rotating clockwise around the high from AZ to CO complete with monsoonal convection; however, with the zonal ridge axis parked over the southern TX Panhandle none of this activity should threaten our area through tonight.
303 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 Toasty conditions are expected to stick around through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening as strong upper ridging continues to impact the region. By tonight, lows will dip into the lower 70s, with mostly clear skies overnight. By the morning, strong ridging will begin to build to our east, increasing southerly flow across areas south of Interstate 20. As the high pressure continues to build, the potential for "Elevated" heat conditions will exist along and north of the Hwy 82 corridor tomorrow. A stout 598mb H5 ridge continues to perch over the southeastern states. As well as combining with the 1020mb high over the Blue Ridge mountains widening to cover our CWA.
Hot and humid weather continues for Friday, but a cold front will bring some relief for the upcoming weekend. The highest temperatures and heat indices will be found in the valleys. Friday night, a cold front will approach the area, which will re-introduce showers and thunderstorms to the forecast.
They'll be in closet proximity to far eastern reaches of the upper high, as well as the driest with the lowest humidity. Lows will prevail in the mid-upper 70s, with the immediate DFW Metro in the lower 80s.
213 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 High pressure will remain off the Southeastern U. Little to no change to the overall synoptic pattern with strong high pressure anchored offshore. Low level thickness values support highs in the low to mid 90s for the beaches and mid to upper 90s inland.
Upper level ridging, centered just east of the Four Corners Region, continues to extend eastward into the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. The subsidence associated with this ridge has kept the region rain-free, with partly cloudy skies, along with hot and humid conditions. A similar weather scenario is likely to play out on tomorrow, as the upper ridge isn't expected to move much.
BB/03 (Now through Friday) Upper-level flow remains generally light and variable today as our local area lies underneath a deformation zone created by upper ridges over the Four Corners region and over the Western Atlantic, a weak inverted trough pushing westward across the Gulf, and a northern-stream trough over the Great Lakes. By tonight and into Friday, the northern trough lifts northeastward and the inverted trough pushes into Texas. The movement of these troughs will help to weaken the influence of the western US ridge over our area and nudge the Atlantic ridge closer to the southeast US. Lows tonight range from the low to mid 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast.
Latest GEFS and European model ensembles have a ridge of high pressure sitting over the Southwest. However, both of the models show a trough moving slowly in over the Pacific Northwest through the weekend. This trough will help weaken the ridge and move the ridge further east towards Texas.
621 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (Tonight) A rather toasty afternoon across the Tennessee Valley as afternoon temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 90s. Will feel little relief overnight as low temperatures only fall into the low to mid 70s.
551 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 Toasty conditions are expected to stick around through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening as strong upper ridging continues to impact the region. By tonight, lows will dip into the lower 70s, with mostly clear skies overnight. By the morning, strong ridging will begin to build to our east, increasing southerly flow across areas south of Interstate 20. As the high pressure continues to build, the potential for "Elevated" heat conditions will exist along and north of the Hwy 82 corridor tomorrow. A stout 598mb H5 ridge continues to perch over the southeastern states. As well as combining with the 1020mb high over the Blue Ridge mountains widening to cover our CWA.
Hot and humid weather continues Friday, but a cold front will bring some relief for the upcoming weekend. The highest temperatures and heat indices will be found in the valleys. Friday night, a cold front will approach the area, which will re-introduce showers and thunderstorms to the forecast.
Temperatures currently in the lower to mid 80s will continue to slowly cool with mid 70s for overnight lows at most locations. Substantial moisture increase expected for tomorrow, especially in the southeastern portion of the forecast area courtesy of an inverted trough moving south of the area and increasing onshore flow. Have trended temperatures down for Friday as well with MOS and blended guidance trending lower with high temps in the low to mid 90s with increased cloud coverage thanks to the deep moisture flux.
A major cool-off is not expected with lows only dipping into the lower 70s and upper 60s tonight with prevalent surface moisture. Dry, hot conditions through Friday are likely as the ridge to our west rebuilds across the region.
High pressure aloft remained centered over the Arizona/New Mexico border during the afternoon. At the same time an inverted trough was located over eastern Mexico.
Despite the lower humidity and a steady southerly breeze, those engaged in outdoor activities should continue to take all necessary precautions.
Temperatures have fallen off from the lower to mid 90s earlier this afternoon into the upper 70s to lower 80s in most locations. It may even be warmer than that.
611 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (This evening through Friday) The mid/upper-level ridge centered across New Mexico will continue to be the primary weather influence for the Southern Plains for Friday. The primary sensible weather impact from the mid-level ridge will continue to be hot temperatures around ~5 to 10 deg F above- average for late July. A Heat Advisory was issued for north central Oklahoma, where confidence on heat indices between 105 to 108 deg F are the highest. The secondary sensible weather impact is northerly flow on the eastern periphery of the ridge will continue to allow for remnant convection and cloud cover to potentially move into northwest/northern Oklahoma during the morning hours.
(This evening through Friday) Interior temperatures are running up to 6 deg F cooler compared to 24 hours ago while coastal areas are experiencing only +/- 3 deg F. The marine layer is anticipated to deepen slightly overnight and into the upcoming weekend as an upper level low off of the British Columbia coast impacts the Pacific Northwest. With high pressure still over the Desert Southwest, interior portions of southern San Benito and Monterey counties will warm into the 90s to near 100 deg F. These warmer temperatures are a result of the persistent high pressure over the Four Corners region.
616 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (This evening through Friday) The large-scale pattern remains unchanged from previous days with an upper level ridge dominating over the area.
Strong ridge of high pressure will result in continued anomalous warmth through the weekend. High pressure is expected to remain situated near the four corners region through the weekend with little change in its movement.
On Friday, the upper-level ridge starts to retrograde back westward, allowing for drier conditions to persist west of the Laramie Range and for higher dewpoints to sneak back into the High Plains.
However weak troughing off the coast of FL, may produce showers near the coast into the overnight. The presence of this weak trough, may also lead to an earlier start for convection on Friday. Lows Tonight will generally be in the mid 70s, but could be a few degrees warmer at the coast. Highs Friday in the lower 90s are expected.
632 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (This evening through Friday night) High pressure is building in over the area still, keeping rain chances fairly low. So, if you hear thunder, go indoors! Some locally heavy rainfall is possible Friday inside of stronger storms, thanks to the higher PW and humidity values. For tonight and tomorrow, temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values in the low 100s.
551 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over New Mexico this afternoon, resulting in continued warm conditions over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. To the southeast, an inverted trough is set to move onshore in south Texas/northern Mexico over the next 24 hours. This will nudge the ridge a bit west, decreasing thicknesses over the region Friday afternoon, shaving a degree or two off today's highs. Lows tonight/Friday night will similarly be cooler than of late, mainly due to a lesser nocturnal LLJ, which will allow for a little less mixing and a little more radiational cooling. Unfortunately, grids will stay dry through Friday night, and at least until the inverted trough pushes a little farther up the Rio Grande Valley.
Going into Friday, expect moisture to continue to creep in, not only in the lower levels but aloft as well as an easterly wave begins to migrate toward our region. (Frye) (This evening through Friday night) High pressure is building in over the area still, keeping rain chances fairly low. So, if you hear thunder, go indoors! Some locally heavy rainfall is possible Friday inside of stronger storms, thanks to the higher PW and humidity values. For tonight and tomorrow, temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values in the low 100s.
Aside from the Upper Keys, most of the Lower and Middle Keys have gotten away relatively unscathed but that should change overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Friday night across much of the Northern Rockies, with the highest coverage being focused across Central Montana. A few thunderstorms across Central and into Southwest Montana could become severe and produce damaging winds over this timeframe, with the highest chance for severe thunderstorms occurring Friday afternoon through early Friday evening. Temperatures through Friday will be well below to near normal as high pressure builds south from Northern Alberta. Otherwise, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected during the daylight hours over the next 36 hours, especially along and southeast of a Fort Belknap, to Great Falls, to MacDonald Pass line; with isolated, nocturnal showers and thunderstorms lingering near the higher terrain of Central Montana and along the Continental Divide north of Rogers Pass both tonight and Friday night.
The forecast philosophy remains unchanged as the region remains sandwiched between persistent ridging centered over the southwestern U. Temperatures will continue above climatological normals tomorrow, but dewpoints in the lower 70s will keep heat indices below advisory criteria.
Showers continue along portions of the coast as of around 930pm, as a trough with a visible low-level circulation moves onshore this evening. While the trough is expected to move northwestward tonight, upper level support and ample moisture will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and storms over the Atlantic waters and the coastal counties.
643 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (This evening through Friday) Models are consistently showing high pressure remaining across the region. However, the high pressure will be a bit weaker than we saw a few days ago.
High pressure is centered over the Four Corners this morning and northeasterly flow aloft is helping moderate temperatures through the weekend.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s. Values in the low to mid 70s. Anomalously high moisture will overspread the entire forecast area Saturday with positive vorticity advection as the inverted trough settles just to the west of the forecast area.
Otherwise, it will be another hot day today under the influence of the upper ridge. Similar to overnight, showers and thunderstorms will most likely develop again during the late afternoon and early evening across the high plains of NM and CO on the fringe of the ridge. There's a SChc of some of this activity making it into northern OK overnight as they rotate around the ridge.
Hot and humid weather continues Friday, but a cold front will bring some relief for the upcoming weekend. The highest temperatures and heat indices will be found in the valleys. Friday night, a cold front will approach the area, which will re-introduce showers and thunderstorms to the forecast. After hot, humid, and dry conditions Friday, a cold front will move through the area beginning overnight Friday and into Saturday. As this front moves through, the dry and cooler air mass behind it will drop temperatures into the mid- to high-70s for the majority of the area. High temperatures for NE PA will likely peak in the morning to early afternoon timeframe (in the low- to high-80s) before the front moves through later that afternoon to cool down those temperatures.
An upper level ridge continues to dominate the hot and humid conditions across the Mid-South.
Otherwise, upper level ridging will continue to slowly build today, leading to mostly clear conditions and high temperatures in the mid 90s to low 100s, perhaps 1-2F warmer than yesterday.
228 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Modest upper ridging is expected over the region today with easterly low level flow under a moderate mid level westerly flow. Ridging strengthens a bit Saturday over the area leading to somewhat warmer temps than today. There is not currently much of any signal of any short wave energy tracking across the area Saturday, but some energy is progged to round the ridge and work southeast producing some convection over and near the MT/Dakota border area. So overall, Saturday looks quieter and warmer. Look for highs Saturday to be about 3-5 degrees warmer in the 80s to lower 90s. BT Models are mostly in agreement that ridging in the mid levels will be the dominant pattern through the extended.
The big story will be an upper level ridge expanding into the region from the Four Corners region. At the surface, high pressure will be in control, situated just S and E of AR, providing SW flow through the period.
Winds crossing a weak boundary to our north let relatively cooler air advect in tonight, bringing overnight lows down to mainly the 50s.
(Today through Saturday Night) An inverted upper level trough will move over the SW Gulf into Northern Mexico, and will nudge the ridge that dominated the synoptic pattern further west. This will allow 500mb heights to lower, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures.
- Cooler Friday and Saturday. Friday through the weekend: Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of tonight's cool front.
By the early afternoon, a cold front will begin to move into northern GA.
The forecast philosophy remains unchanged as the region remains sandwiched between persistent ridging centered over the southwestern U. Temperatures will continue above climatological normals tomorrow, but dewpoints in the lower 70s will keep heat indices below advisory criteria. Jones (Tonight through Saturday night) A regime of broad ridging over the Southwest U. That said, an isolated cell developing along the coastal waters remains possible during the diurnal hours tomorrow with the best chances lying along the lower Vermilion and Atchafalaya Basins. Progressing into Saturday, the influence of the upper level ridge will continue to push eastward into our area, which will further limit POPS.
1210 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 (This evening through Friday) The large-scale pattern remains unchanged from previous days with an upper level ridge dominating over the area.
The upper level ridge will stay over our area, with the center of the high located to our northwest. However, the ridge is a bit weaker, leading to temperatures right around 100 in most of our area. Subsidence associated with this high will keep rain chances very low and the area dry.
Another high pressure is expected to traverse the US/CAN border which emits a strong push of "cooler" air out of Canada.
An additional threat will occur with the actual cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. Shower and thunderstorm timing will be dependent on how quickly the cold front creeps into the CWA and current guidance differs on how quickly this occurs. If the cold front moves slower into the CWA, dangerous high temperatures will once again impact portions of the CWA on Saturday.
1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over New Mexico this afternoon, resulting in continued warm conditions over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. To the southeast, an inverted trough is set to move onshore in south Texas/northern Mexico over the next 24 hours. This will nudge the ridge a bit west, decreasing thicknesses over the region Friday afternoon, shaving a degree or two off today's highs. Lows tonight/Friday night will similarly be cooler than of late, mainly due to a lesser nocturnal LLJ, which will allow for a little less mixing and a little more radiational cooling. Unfortunately, grids will stay dry through Friday night, and at least until the inverted trough pushes a little farther up the Rio Grande Valley.
Simultaneously, a cold frontal boundary draped from southwestern ND through northeastern ND is continuing to gradually slide southeastward. Beyond any shower and thunderstorm chances, expect a cooler day today with highs topping out mostly in the 70s.
The set up for today, persistent troughiness and tropical wave shoud lift north and high pressure remains in place. Once again, ample cloud coverage should keep highs from getting too warm, especially over the interior but still in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the 90s, except for areas near the coast that could get near 100 degrees. Meanwhile, ridge of high pressure remains over Florida keeping easterly flow over the next few days. This should support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms moving from east to west with the highest chances during the evening hours over the eastern Gulf waters. Ample moisture associated with tropical wave moving along the east coast combined with high pressure over the area should support periods of showers and storms across fire districts through the period.
High temperatures are expected to be a little cooler today compared to the past couple of days with the increased cloud cover and convection.
(Today and tonight) Southwest flow prevails aloft as we remain sandwiched between an upper low pressure area over the northeast Pacific and strong high pressure over the southern CONUS. Temperatures will be seasonal, if not slightly cooler than average.
Strong Thunderstorms across Southwest Montana this afternoon A weak cold front continues to drop southward from Alberta Canada this morning for areas along the divide, where light north- northeast winds (5-15 mph) will continue.
1211 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 (This evening through Friday) Models are consistently showing high pressure remaining across the region. However, the high pressure will be a bit weaker than we saw a few days ago.
Tomorrow into Saturday, an inverted trough will work its way from east to west along the southern periphery of the mid-upper ridge, which will help keep temperatures relatively "cooler" through the short term period. Unfortunately, this trough is just helping to bring 500mb heights down to normal levels for this time of year, so it won't be bringing relief in the form of rain due to a lack of lifting.
Much cooler today with lower relative humidity. H5 ridging begins to build to the west of the CWA later Saturday, then shifts eastward thereafter.
A messy synoptic set-up to start the day with a cold front and various outflow boundaries sitting over WI. The eastern edge of high pressure centered over the northern Plains is forecast to reach the northern sections of the Great Lakes after midnight and bring a decrease in clouds to at least northern WI and parts of central WI. Min temperatures to range from the lower 50s over far north-central WI, lower to middle 60s east-central WI. A northwest flow aloft will have returned to the Great Lakes by Saturday as the upper ridge repositions itself over the Rockies.