Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold frontal passage from west to east Saturday afternoon and early evening will produce snow squalls with some embedded thunder and lightning, along with sharply reduced visibility and strong wind gusts over 50 mph.
Freezing rain Saturday Night looks be a very small chance (20% or less) as temperatures will probably not drop below freezing till after the rainfall for areas near Highway 2. However, temps may be cooler closer to the Canadian border and chances look to be higher. Most troughs and ridges are currently being moved around this anchor point in the flow. Split flow has set up over the eastern third of the CONUS with the ridge across British Columbia, Idaho, and Washington while the trough base is ejecting through the Four Corners. However, with temperatures breaking above freezing for highs int he southwest today there may be sufficient moisture to bring back fog tonight during the normal hours of 3 to 10 AM.
Convective instability, with scattered to numerous intense snow showers, has developed near and to the east of the upper low, with abundant moisture continuing to rotate northward and westward into western South Dakota. 08z surface analysis had primary low pressure deepening over central NE courtesy of upper low spinning over central WY. Lift ahead of upper low on nose of 110kt jet streak evident on water vapour/IR loops with large precipitation shield intensifying per regional radar loop.
(Rest of today through Saturday) The mid-level ridge will be the dominant feature for today and Saturday, although it will begin to breakdown on Saturday. There is not a threat for showers today as a result of the high pressure and steady easterly winds plus the 12Z sounding today showed a much drier atmospheric column. The onshore flow for the east coast will lead to lower temperatures today in the low 80s whereas the west coast with offshore flow will see temps in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will be reversed as the east coast will be warmer in the low to mid 70s and the interior/west coast will fall to the mid to upper 60s.
The highest winds are expected across the Big Country and Concho Valley, where sustained west winds of 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 45 mph is expected. The exception will be over far southeast counties, where highs will be in the lower 80s. Temperatures will be much cooler, with lows by daybreak Saturday in the low to mid 40s.
312 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 An upper low's deformation band continues to move along the state border with majority precipiation remaining on the South Dakota side. While heavier precipitation, mostly freezing rain, could move into the southern James River Valley. Freezing rain is still possible for Dickey and McIntosh counties later this afternoon. Winds continue to pick up across the southeast as the upper low moves eastward. Tomorrow temperatures are forecast to warm up into the lower 50s in the southwest while the eastern half of the state is going to sit in the upper 20s to mid 30s for the central part of the state. Zonal flow aloft will temporarily return to the region until an upper level trough digs across northeastern Montana.
Very windy and cold on Saturday in the wake of a tight thermal gradient aloft as the upper-level trough becomes negatively tilted and lifts northeast. Two periods where gusts of 55 mph are possible is behind the cold front tonight, along the US 24 corridor as the dry slow moves overhead.
Once the cold front passes and the storms depart, winds will veer to the west and temperatures will plummet. Blustery and chilly conditions will prevail on Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens between departing low pressure and a high building into the Plains. High temperatures will be considerably cooler than today.
Sunset and an end to deep mixing will begin to put an end to the high winds with west to northwest winds falling back into a 10- 15 mph range for most of the area for the duration of the night.
Look for slightly warmer but windier conditions on Saturday.
(This evening through Saturday night) An upper level trough dropping out of the Rockies will deepen as it tracks across the northern/central Plains today. This track, and lack of southward digging, means that the cold front associated with this system will struggle to even reach the CWA. Strong southerly flow in the lower levels has substantially increased low level moisture. At the same time, upper ridge situated over the Bay of Campeche will aide in temp moderation on Saturday with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal and right on the tip of records.
We are seeing multiple hazards across our area - widespread severe wind gusts in excess of 50 mph have occurred in southwest Oklahoma and are working eastward with the low-level thermal ridge. A cold front will sweep through the area beginning around midnight tonight and reaching the southern part of the CWA by daybreak. Light cold advection will break down toward sunset tomorrow as the next trough begins to approach.
820 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The band of snow is finally decreasing in coverage as the upper low shifts off to the east. The convective bands that continue to move north on the east side of the upper low have been slower to progress than initially forecast. Weak return flow and weak ridging aloft develop on Saturday. This will push temperatures into the lower 30s across fresh snow pack with some lower 40s possible across Corson and Dewey counties where much less snow fell today.
The upper level trough that brought active weather to California earlier in the week has pushed east and is bringing dangerous severe weather today east of the Rockies. Thankfully we are seeing much quieter weather on this side of the Rockies under weak ridging. An upper level trough will begin to push into the PacNW later today and that will bring some weak warm air advection to northern portions of the area. The trough will continue to dig on Saturday slowly pushing a cold front into the region. This will keep showers in the forecast with the best chances over the higher elevations and mainly from I-80 north.
An upper low's deformation band continues to move along the state border with majority precipiation remaining on the South Dakota side. While heavier precipitation, mostly freezing rain, could move into the southern James River Valley. Freezing rain is still possible for Dickey and McIntosh counties later this afternoon. Winds continue to pick up across the southeast as the upper low moves eastward. Tomorrow temperatures are forecast to warm up into the lower 50s in the southwest while the eastern half of the state is going to sit in the upper 20s to mid 30s for the central part of the state. Zonal flow aloft will temporarily return to the region until an upper level trough digs across northeastern Montana.
00Z Surface analysis places a cold front from Central Iowa back through Northwest Arkansas and into Central Texas. Damaging winds and several tornadoes remain the highest threats, including a couple of strong and long- tracked tornadoes possible.
The convective bands that continue to move north on the east side of the upper low have been slower to progress than initially forecast. Weak return flow and weak ridging aloft develop on Saturday. This will push temperatures into the lower 30s across fresh snow pack with some lower 40s possible across Corson and Dewey counties where much less snow fell today.
552 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) An upper level trough dropping out of the Rockies will deepen as it tracks across the northern/central Plains today. This track, and lack of southward digging, means that the cold front associated with this system will struggle to even reach the CWA. Strong southerly flow in the lower levels has substantially increased low level moisture. At the same time, upper ridge situated over the Bay of Campeche will aide in temp moderation on Saturday with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal and right on the tip of records.
(The rest of tonight) The main concern overnight is the impact of the wind shift following the cold frontal passage on any ongoing fire fighting efforts across northeast Oklahoma. Although wind speeds and gusts have decreased significantly from this afternoon, occasional gusts near 25 mph will still be possible near the Kansas border this evening, with the frequency of such increasing behind the cold front. (Tomorrow through Friday) The strong upper level low responsible for today's severe/fire weather will continue to move off to the east toward the Great Lakes region Saturday.
Key Points: * Have expanded the high wind warning to include areas west of highway 65. Expect strongest winds to last through sunset, though wind advisory winds are expected to continue through the overnight as cold front moves through and winds shift more out of the northwest.
18z surface data has strong low pressure in western Iowa between KSLB and KCIN. The warm front ran east from the storm across northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin. The strong cold front ran south from the low through western Missouri. Dew points were in the 50s and 60s east of the low into the Ohio Valley. Dew points in the 20s and 30s were behind the cold front in the Plains. Through 8 PM severe storms along the cold front will sweep through the area. Behind the cold front winds will increase considerably overnight. Late tonight into Saturday very windy conditions will be seen as strong high pressure moves in behind the strong storm system.
An Atlantic ridge off the mid Atlantic coast continues to drive eastwards this evening. This high is trailing a long ridge extending across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. A ridge across Florida will maintain east to southeasterly breezes that will ease back further to moderate speeds.
623 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Late this afternoon, much drier air is being advected into west central Texas behind a Pacific cold front. Strong west winds will continue through late this afternoon and early evening until high pressure starts to fill in across west Texas. Tonight, skies look to remain clear with light winds as high pressure continues to build in. Given the sunny skies expected and the potential for quick airmass recovery, high temperatures tomorrow should reach the upper 70s across the Big Country and the low 80s for areas further south.
633 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 A mid/upper trough moving over the Central and Northern Plains today is progged to move eastward over the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley area today and tonight before emerging over the Great Lakes area early on Saturday. This will result in continued breezy west/northwest winds tonight although speeds will continue to gradually subside through the period, becoming light on Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the area.
to the lower to middle 40s along/south of I-70. Once the cold front passes and the storms depart, winds will veer to the west and temperatures will plummet. Blustery and chilly conditions will prevail on Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens between departing low pressure and a high building into the Plains. High temperatures will be considerably cooler than today.
The tail end of this activity is draped across the far southeast parts of our CWA where a strong Pacific cold front is moving through. Cooler air behind the actual cold front will spill southward early Saturday morning resulting in northerly winds.
However, forcing along/beneath the ejecting trough has weakened considerably since sunset, with convection having become more isolated along and ahead of the sfc bndry. Drier low level air, as well as aloft, has entrained ENE beneath this trough and ahead of the dryline, contributing to a marked decrease in convection over the last couple of hours.
607 PM MDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The upper low is slowly drifting eastward, bringing snow to an end across western South Dakota.
18z surface data has strong low pressure in western Iowa between KSLB and KCIN. The warm front ran east from the storm across northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin. The strong cold front ran south from the low through western Missouri. Dew points were in the 50s and 60s east of the low into the Ohio Valley. Dew points in the 20s and 30s were behind the cold front in the Plains. Through 8 PM severe storms along the cold front will sweep through the area. Behind the cold front winds will increase considerably overnight.
358 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 (Issued 358 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023) Today through Sunday: There is high confidence in a quick shot of snow this morning as low pressure departs to the east. The highest gusts will be in the northeast forecast area. It will be cooler near the lake due to alongshore to onshore winds.
416 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Ridging will be in place across the area again today as the cold front currently causing a tornado outbreak from the deep south up through the Great Lakes region approaches the state as it weakens. Drier air will move into the northern half of the area for Sunday afternoon as high pressure builds in.
1131 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 A mid/upper trough moving over the Central and Northern Plains today is progged to move eastward over the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley area today and tonight before emerging over the Great Lakes area early on Saturday. This will result in continued breezy west/northwest winds tonight although speeds will continue to gradually subside through the period, becoming light on Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the area. As high pressure translates eastward into the Mississippi Valley area, low level southerly winds will return to the area on Sunday becoming breezy over southern Kansas with time/height X-sections of wind and mixing layer height supporting some gusts to around 35 knots. A mid/upper trough is progged to move out of the PACNW and into the Northern Intermountain region early in the week.
1238 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Late this afternoon, much drier air is being advected into west central Texas behind a Pacific cold front. Strong west winds will continue through late this afternoon and early evening until high pressure starts to fill in across west Texas. Tonight, skies look to remain clear with light winds as high pressure continues to build in. Given the sunny skies expected and the potential for quick airmass recovery, high temperatures tomorrow should reach the upper 70s across the Big Country and the low 80s for areas further south.
(Today) Cold front moving through northeast Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas early this morning, currently located near a Muskogee, Sulphur Springs line.
An upper low and storm system will move across the Midwest region today, with a warm front lifting northeastward across the CWA today, and a cold front sweeping eastward across the CWA through this evening. Rain chances return Sunday when a warm front begins to lift northward across the south-central U. returning warmer air and moisture to the region. Temps today will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s, cooling behind tonight's cold front, with lows dropping to the lower 40s to lower 50s tonight.
High pressure will build into the region later today bringing cooler and drier air to the Mid-South. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Sunday as winds shift to the south.
1236 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 00Z Surface analysis places a cold front from Central Iowa back through Northwest Arkansas and into Central Texas. Damaging winds and several tornadoes remain the highest threats, including a couple of strong and long- tracked tornadoes possible.
1211 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 The band of snow is finally decreasing in coverage as the upper low shifts off to the east. The convective bands that continue to move north on the east side of the upper low have been slower to progress than initially forecast. Weak return flow and weak ridging aloft develop on Saturday. This will push temperatures into the lower 30s across fresh snow pack with some lower 40s possible across Corson and Dewey counties where much less snow fell today.
The upper low will swing across the northeast this afternoon and winds will likely increase to advisory criteria so we have extended the wind advisory through 7 pm for the north central and north eastern areas. High pressure will continue to build in tonight and will result in fair skies. On Sunday high pressure will begin to exit the area and clouds will begin to build in the west late afternoon ahead of the next system.
1056 PM MDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The upper low is slowly drifting eastward, bringing snow to an end across western South Dakota.
Deep closed low will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes today. Preceding this, a cold front will move through during the early morning, and as soon as we start mixing into very strong wind aloft (i. Cold advection should hold temperatures in the low to mid 40s during the afternoon.
1122 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Precipitation is diminishing across west-central Minnesota as the upper low continues moving off to the east. The upper low currently seen on water vapor spinning along the Neb/SD border will shift off into the Great Lakes tonight. Reports have been a mix of thundersleet and thunder freezing rain, and any precip reaching the ground in our far southern counties looks look it will at least be a wintery mix at first. However, any freezing rain (or rain freezing later tonight) will create even more of a mess than straight snow.
133 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 (Rest of today through Saturday) The mid-level ridge will be the dominant feature for today and Saturday, although it will begin to breakdown on Saturday. There is not a threat for showers today as a result of the high pressure and steady easterly winds plus the 12Z sounding today showed a much drier atmospheric column. The onshore flow for the east coast will lead to lower temperatures today in the low 80s whereas the west coast with offshore flow will see temps in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will be reversed as the east coast will be warmer in the low to mid 70s and the interior/west coast will fall to the mid to upper 60s.
18z surface data has strong low pressure in western Iowa between KSLB and KCIN. The warm front ran east from the storm across northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin. The strong cold front ran south from the low through western Missouri. Dew points were in the 50s and 60s east of the low into the Ohio Valley. Dew points in the 20s and 30s were behind the cold front in the Plains. Through 8 PM severe storms along the cold front will sweep through the area. Behind the cold front winds will increase considerably overnight. Late tonight into Saturday very windy conditions will be seen as strong high pressure moves in behind the strong storm system. high confidence High pressure quickly moves through the area Saturday night with strong southerly return flow developing Sunday.
920 PM PDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Clouds from a small area of low pressure moving inland tonight will exit the region early Saturday morning.
217 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Deep closed low will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes today. Preceding this, a cold front will move through during the early morning, and as soon as we start mixing into very strong wind aloft (i. Cold advection should hold temperatures in the low to mid 40s during the afternoon.
1233 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 (The rest of tonight) The main concern overnight is the impact of the wind shift following the cold frontal passage on any ongoing fire fighting efforts across northeast Oklahoma. Although wind speeds and gusts have decreased significantly from this afternoon, occasional gusts near 25 mph will still be possible near the Kansas border this evening, with the frequency of such increasing behind the cold front.
1207 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Key Points: * Have expanded the high wind warning to include areas west of highway 65. Expect strongest winds to last through sunset, though wind advisory winds are expected to continue through the overnight as cold front moves through and winds shift more out of the northwest.
The ridge receives even more and sees the brunt of the wind with gusts to 50 and even 60 mph above 9500ft elevation. Some of the ridges along the Montana border will gust to 60 mph, but that is mostly above pass level. This low is a very slow mover and continues to bring snow not only Sun night, but Mon and Mon night as well. Being on the north side of this low, the snow levels should lower as it becomes more difficult to get above freezing in the more northerly airflow.
613 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 (Today) Cold front moving through northeast Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas early this morning, currently located near a Muskogee, Sulphur Springs line.
The boundary was on the heals of any storms and bringing much drier/cooler air in quickly. By Sunday morning, low-level dry air will have moved into the Lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of a weak surface boundary clearing the area.
549 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Low pressure rapidly exiting to the east this morning with strong northerly winds quickly diminishing through the afternoon as a fast moving ridge of high pressure moves through. Have leaned a little milder on temperatures today as snow amounts have been on the lower side across the area and southerly flow brings in some milder air. A relatively strong low pressure will move through ND into northern MN on Sunday which should provide a nice breezy westerly component to the low level wind and some milder temperatures, much closer to normal in most areas. However with recent rains and cooler temperatures the fire danger should be limited a bit.
631 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 High pressure will build into the region later today bringing cooler and drier air to the Mid-South. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Sunday as winds shift to the south.
Ridging will be in place across the area again today as the cold front currently causing a tornado outbreak from the deep south up through the Great Lakes region approaches the state as it weakens. Drier air will move into the northern half of the area for Sunday afternoon as high pressure builds in.
Mean-layer ridging remains over Central America, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico, south of the broad belt of cyclonic storminess spreading east across the CONUS. The 12Z regional RAOBs placed the center of the 500 mb ridge near the Yucatan, with MMMD measuring 594 dm. The sensible weather across the Keys is controlled by the low-level ridge over the western North Atlantic. High pressure off the Mid- Atlantic coast will continue to retreat eastward today.
540 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 (Today and tonight) A quiet and cooler day today.
1222 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 (The rest of today ) Cool start this morning but expect a quick warmup through the afternoon as warm front gradually lifts northward across the area.
1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Key Messages: - Frost or freeze potential will be higher Wednesday morning (Frost chance 30-60%), with the highest probabilities from southeast MN into southwest WI.
158 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023 High pressure will lead to mainly dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures today and Wednesday. A chance of showers will develop later Wednesday into Wednesday night as a warm front lifts north across the region. The warm front will also result in a warming trend through the end of the work week. A warm front will lift northeast toward the Ohio Valley through the day on Wednesday. Warm frontal boundary attached to a strengthening surface on the lee side of the Rockies will be stretched across the central/eastern CONUS.
At the surface, high pressure over the region moves east of the area today allowing for low-level flow to transition to more southwesterly. Additionally, an area of low pressure is expected to develop over the western Gulf late tonight with a warm front extending east across the central Gulf. The low pressure is expected to move east-northeast along the boundary with the warm front also gradually lifting northward through Wednesday. With this, we are still expecting the low pressure system and warm front to remain offshore through the period putting our land areas in the cool sector for Wednesday.