Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1255 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 An inverted trough sits over WV while high pressure sits over the Great Lakes through Friday. A developing upper low makes for a tricky holiday weekend forecast, with an increasing chance for rain. Then, moisture associated with a developing low pressure system over the Carolinas, will advect into our area from the east starting Saturday evening.
Currently, our region remains sandwiched between an upper ridge to our west and a closed low/trough to our NE across the Mid MS Valley. This trough will continue to slowly migrate farther to the south over the next 12-24 hours, helping to nudge a weak cold front into our NE zones this evening and overnight. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s far north through the lower and mid 60s south. Meanwhile, the closed upper low to our NE will drop even farther south into the Lower MS Valley and may contribute to some isolated convection along and east of the MS River.
1251 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 (Today and tonight) The "dirty" ridge remains over eastern New Mexico and west Texas this morning. Highs will continue to be near or just slightly below normal, getting into the low to mid 80s at most locations.
123 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Upper Midwest with deep trof over the western CONUS, and broad southwest flow in-between.
304 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes region through the Memorial Day weekend.
356 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 A ridge is situated from essentially Mexico to the Great Lakes with a trough over the Northeast and a trough over the Great Basin. This has set up a col type of pattern essentially for Kansas in the mid levels based on the placement of the high and ridge axis as well as the supporting low features. The record remains on repeat with afternoon temperatures in the lower 70s to lower 80s and chances for showers/ storms given the uncapped airmass.
(Tonight through Saturday night) South Texas will remain under the influence of a subsident mid level ridge through Saturday Night which keeps our weather quiet. That said, a weakness in the mid level ridge axis will persist over northeast Mexico through the period which will enhance diurnal convection over the Sierra Madre Mts. Mid to high level clouds will spread over South Texas this evening and again Saturday Evening as a result of this trough.
Though there is ample amount of dry air across the region, as this low tracks E/NE, moisture will wrap around and when met with peak heating, light rain will be possible. While there won't be alot of flow at the surface, there will be some flow aloft along with cooler temperatures aloft.
152 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes region through the Memorial Day weekend.
(This evening through Saturday Night) No issues with the short term part of this package as the mid/upper ridge remains the main focus with the larger pattern.
1206 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 Showers and isolated storms continue to fester over the High Plains early this morning. A persistent mid/upper ridge over the Upper Mississippi Valley area will help steer drier air into the Central Plains today which should keep much of the shower and storm activity confined to central and western Kansas.
Sunshine is dominant across southeast Arizona but moisture/clouds being drawn northeastward into Sonora ahead of Great Basin upper trough.
We'll see similar weather tomorrow thanks to a slow moving upper low positioned over the southeast U.
A secondary wave caught in periphery of this low will move southwest through the Tennessee Valley tonight, producing isolated showers over far north Georgia. As the main low moves north inland into south Carolina, the subsidence zone around the low should keep much of western Georgia under mostly sunny and breezy conditions, while eastern portions of the state will experience enhanced cloud cover and better precipitation chances through Saturday.
Trough axis shifting east will bring about some subsidence in the atmosphere which should be enough to slightly compress the marine layer Saturday. However, this is not a strong high pressure in the wake of the current upper trough, so wouldn't expect any vast differences in temps/cloud cover in the short term.
75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Saturday) An upper-level low will rotate southeastward across the Lower MS Valley while a broad region of high surface pressure moves eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley regions. For the most part, expect mostly sunny skies and nice weather conditions heading into the Memorial Day weekend, trending slightly cooler tomorrow with lower humidity due to east-northeasterly sfc winds.
623 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure will build in from the west tonight, then settle to our south through the weekend.
442 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023 Another day of showers and thunderstorms is expected today as the West Coast low and blocking high to our east remain in place. Saturday will see additional widespread showers and thunderstorms, though a slightly eastward trough shift will likely limit the strongest activity to Johnson and Natrona counties.
603 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Upper level ridge axis will remain just west of the area tonight into Saturday. Temperatures will be mild again tonight, with lows in the 60s and highs on Saturday in the low to mid 80s.
940 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will provide tranquil weather through Saturday.
632 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) No issues with the short term part of this package as the mid/upper ridge remains the main focus with the larger pattern.
712 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure remains in control through early Saturday.
Moisture from the Gulf continues to circulate northward on the backside of high pressure into the western High Plains.
However, showers will linger overnight - mainly in southeast Oregon as an upper low centered in northeast Oregon drifts southeastward. The low will across our northern areas, from Baker City to McCall, on Saturday. Most of the activity will occur near the low center across the north. Showers and thunderstorms will increase Saturday afternoon, with the highest coverage across the northern mountains and along the Nevada border.
1030 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes region through the Memorial Day weekend.
An upper-level trough was gradually migrating eastward across the Intermountain West this afternoon. Large-scale ascent was subsequently decreasing across NWRN CA, however, steep low and midlevel lapse rates combined with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 50s were supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Trinity Alps and Yolla Bolly Mountains. Otherwise, multi- model guidance generally shows persistent upper troughing occurring over the West Coast and adjacent NERN PAC during the next seven days, which will lead to seasonable temperatures across the region. As transient high pressure forms to the north, north winds will begin to increase late tonight into Friday, with widespread gusts in the outer waters over 25 kts by Friday afternoon.
638 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes Region is pushing relatively cool and much drier air into the Mid Mississippi Valley on northeast flow.
627 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Upper ridge extends from Mexico across SE NM and W TX to MN as a trough extends from WA down the West Coast. This trough will slowly grow east Saturday cutting the ridge in half separating the portion over the south plains from that over the Great Lakes.
This will continue overnight as a low pressure system off of the southeastern U. Temperatures are on track to reach the 60s tonight with a few spots north of Interstate 4 and across interior Osceola and Okeechobee counties potentially reaching the low 60s. Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions continue tonight as a low pressure off of the southeast U.
510 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Upper Midwest with deep trof over the western CONUS, and broad southwest flow in-between.
649 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 An upper low developing over the southeast states will meander around the Mid-South through this weekend. Mainly dry and warmer weather is expected through mid-week as upper level highs pressure builds over the region.
450 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023 Upper trough remains anchored over the western CONUS with southwesterly flow ahead of it over the plains.
723 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will provide tranquil weather through Saturday.
610 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) South Texas will remain under the influence of a subsident mid level ridge through Saturday Night which keeps our weather quiet. That said, a weakness in the mid level ridge axis will persist over northeast Mexico through the period which will enhance diurnal convection over the Sierra Madre Mts. Mid to high level clouds will spread over South Texas this evening and again Saturday Evening as a result of this trough.
Gradually diminishing showers remain over southern areas this evening mainly from Sarasota/DeSoto/Highlands counties southward, with a few more widely scattered, short-lived showers popping up across central locations as NE flow continues across the peninsula between ridging to the north and an area of low pressure off the SE U. Temps moderate briefly as well, with morning lows on Saturday in the low/mid 60s away from the coast and afternoon highs mainly in the mid 80s except for a few pockets of upper 80s over SWFL. For the rest of today, expect showers and thunderstorms to continue developing, though the limiting factor will continue to be the drier air wrapping around the low. Drier air on Saturday likely to limit shower and storm chances with NE through NW winds across terminals west of area of low pressure offshore NE Florida.
1017 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 Large area of strong high pressure remains parked over the Great Lakes region late this evening. Pattern Synopsis: A closed upper-level low will continue to pivot over the north Atlantic off of the New England coast tonight as amplified ridging slides eastward, positioning itself overhead by Saturday morning. Forecast/Details: Quiet weather will continue across northern Michigan through tonight with aforementioned high pressure in place. Low temperatures tonight will dip below 40 across most areas, with interior low-lying areas dropping near freezing late tonight/early Saturday morning. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast Details: Broad ridging will remain over the region through the period as a cut-off low pinwheels over the southeast CONUS, keeping quiet weather in place across the Great Lakes through the holiday weekend.
There is just enough moisture over the Kaibab Plateau to work with daytime heating and weak trough dynamics for a slight chance of showers into the early evening.
A ridge is situated from essentially Mexico to the Great Lakes with a trough over the Northeast and a trough over the Great Basin. This has set up a col type of pattern essentially for Kansas in the mid levels based on the placement of the high and ridge axis as well as the supporting low features. The record remains on repeat with afternoon temperatures in the lower 70s to lower 80s and chances for showers/ storms given the uncapped airmass.
734 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 Strong area of high pressure will reside directly over the region tonight supporting weakening, more variable direction wind overnight. Little change Saturday compared with today aside from a bit more cirrus spilling into the area from the south tied to Carolinas low pressure.
910 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure will build in from the west tonight, then settle to our south through the weekend.
Bumped up PoPs near the the Memphis metro near daybreak as the upper low retrogrades west into central Arkansas overnight. AC3 An upper low developing over the southeast states will meander around the Mid-South through this weekend. Mainly dry and warmer weather is expected through mid-week as upper level highs pressure builds over the region.
911 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure over the Great Lakes continues to promote light and dry northeasterly flow into the region. MMG/Glass High pressure centered over the Great Lakes Region is pushing relatively cool and much drier air into the Mid Mississippi Valley on northeast flow.
Though there is ample amount of dry air across the region, as this low tracks E/NE, moisture will wrap around and when met with peak heating, light rain will be possible. While there won't be a lot of flow at the surface, there will be some flow aloft along with cooler temperatures aloft.
807 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 (Through Saturday) The upper level trough continues to influence our weather.
Looking at the 00Z RAOB sounding, there was some dry air in the lowest two thousand feet which may be getting ingested into these showers as they approach closer to the Keys. An upper level trough that was across our area this time last night has shifted northeast and east, currently centered off the FL eastern coastline. That said, the aforementioned dry air in the lowest levels in conjunction with relatively dry air in the mid levels will continue to filter in overnight.
751 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes region through the Memorial Day weekend.
1004 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure remains in control through early Saturday.
(Today and tonight) Thunderstorms over the southern Texas panhandle this morning are nearing the apex of a weak upper ridge over west Texas. This is downstream from the larger- scale upper trough over the western coast of the U. Simultaneously, the weak upper ridge over Texas will drift eastward allowing for weak southwesterly flow over Oklahoma later today.
It will become a closed low over the SE U. In the upper levels, there will be some mid/upper clouds with the developing upper low over portions of C AL.
1155 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 (This evening through Sunday night) The region will remain on the western or drier periphery of the large scale trough currently over the Southeast U.
317 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023 High pressure anchored across the North Country this weekend will result in dry conditions and warm temperatures.
High pressure, centered across the Great Lakes region, will maintain dry weather and mostly clear skies tonight. Thin, high level cirrus clouds will increase overnight north of SE CONUS low pressure. Clouds will continue to very slowly thicken and lower slightly on Saturday as the upper low continues to spin over or near the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, upper level ridging over the Great Lakes will spread into the Upper Ohio Valley as the eastern CONUS rex block pattern builds.
258 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023 (Issued 258 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023) Today through Sunday: High pressure will bring mostly clear skies through this weekend, aside from some passing high clouds at times. Cooler temps will continue near the lake under onshore winds.
1038 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure over the Great Lakes continues to promote light and dry northeasterly flow into the region. MMG/Glass High pressure centered over the Great Lakes Region is pushing relatively cool and much drier air into the Mid Mississippi Valley on northeast flow.
Otherwise, near to even slightly below normal temperatures will occur, aided by increased cloud cover and the deterioration of the mid-level ridge.
144 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023 High pressure will remain firmly in place across the Great Lakes through the long holiday weekend.
The dry pattern favors trending minimum temps below MOS/NBM blend with lows bottoming around the freezing mark in the typically coldest locations. High pressure will remain over the area Saturday providing a nice start to the holiday weekend. Max temps will trend warmer under strong late May sunshine with highs climbing back into the 70s. Model consensus favors increasing clouds and a low chance for rain showers over the southern tier of CPA on Sunday associated with low pressure system over the Carolinas. Temperatures continue to trend warmer particularly over the northern half of CPA with fcst highs in the upper 70s to low 80s or +5-10F above late May climo. But, dewpoints do eek into the u50s across the S, and the hot temps can pop showers off the ridges when supplied with halfway decent moisture.
Expecting less coverage tomorrow as the trough axis shifts east allowing for drier and slightly warmer conditions. Trough axis currently situated over Nevada this afternoon allowing for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of Inyo, Esmeralda, and central Nye Counties. Most of the convection is expected to remain over the higher terrain, but any generated outflow boundaries could allow for some storm development in the lower elevations. The trough will begin to lift overnight and Saturday bringing a reduction to the instability across the northern zones. By Sunday, another trough will begin to dig down the west coast and once again bring enough energy for additional showers and thunderstorms for both the Sierra and portions of our northern zones.
Though there is ample amount of dry air across the region, as this low tracks E/NE, moisture will wrap around and when met with peak heating, light rain will be possible. While there won't be a lot of flow at the surface, there will be some flow aloft along with cooler temperatures aloft. /JNE/ A broad upper level low propagating from the southeastern region into the mid-Atlantic coast will push out of the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday. This will filter drier and warmer low level air into the ArkLaMiss region through the weekend into mid-week. Weekend highs will remain in the lower to upper 80s, while overnight lows range in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
For now, have kept the low chance of showers and storms (20-30% chance) for primarily northwest Alabama and southern middle Tennessee, but some development cannot be ruled out over northeast Alabama (less than 10% chance).
Large upper low continues to spin over the Mississippi River Valley this morning as seen in water vapor imagery with dry air wrapping around the base of the system and into the E Gulf and FL Peninsula today. Conditions moderate by mid week with warmer temps, higher humidity and scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms returning to the area for early June. Pressure gradient to relax later this morning as low pressure system off the East Coast moves towards the Carolinas and weak high pressure begins to build back into the region today through the holiday weekend.
High temperatures in the Low to mid 80s expected today and Sunday, with temperatures dropping into the mid 50 to around 60 range tonight.
Overall, these storms are expected to remain on the lower end of severe criteria as the best instability is outside our area.
We expect to see highs in the low to mid 80s for most areas each day with lows in the 50s to near 60.
Event total will approach two inches in some of the higher elevations. Discussion: A cut-off upper level low will pretty much spin in place and remain over the Tennessee Valley through the Holiday weekend. Much of the highlighted area mentioned above is under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. As the low center comes ashore and moves inland across North Carolina, NE winds will increase this evening across the area from SW Virginia into the Tennessee Valley. Because of the influence of the upper level low overhead and overcast, temperatures will run cooler this afternoon and a few degrees cooler than that for tomorrow afternoon.
Hudson Bay high pressure will remain over the Great Lakes, with continued dry conditions through the holiday weekend. Cooler readings in the middle 60s to lower 70s will be found near Lake Michigan. Slightly warmer low temperatures tonight should preclude significant frost development.
(Today through Sunday) South Florida should get a brief reprieve from the active weather this weekend as a deep upper level trough which has persisted over the Florida peninsula over the past few days gradually retreats northeastward. As the trough exits the region, deep-layered drier air will filter in, with models showing PWAT values in the 1. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s around the lake region, to upper 80s over SW FL.
Light E/SE winds will generally keep that dry and warm flow into the area for at least Saturday, with temps in the lower 80s, but again with the dry airmass in place it will still be rather comfortable. The mid level pattern remains rather disorganized over the immediate area with weak troughing on either side of us, and minimal flow within a weakly amplified ridge.
244 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023 High pressure continues to dominate the Great Lakes Region, keeping our area in LLVL easterly flow. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s through the day, with nighttime temperatures in the low 50s. Key Message: 1) Unseasonably warm and dry weather continues, as high pressure dominates the region. The beautiful Memorial Day Weekend continues Sunday, as the blocking pattern keeps high pressure situated over the Great Lakes.
A weak upper ridge remains in place producing a weak capping inversion aloft. The higher elevations west of the Pecos River will help with convective initiation this afternoon from the Guadalupe to the Davis Mountains, and storms will then move east with time.
Otherwise, the rex block pattern will keep the region dry, though increasing moisture is expected due to the flow around the upper level low currently anchored over southeast MO/northeast AR. Highs today will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s, then just a few degrees warmer on Sunday in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
1107 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023 Upper trough remains anchored over the western CONUS with southwesterly flow ahead of it over the plains.
As an upper level ridge gradually transitions eastward into the Great Lakes, south-southwesterly flow will begin to filter into the forecast area behind it. Although, a longwave trough over the Pacific Northwest will begin to move eastward across the Intermountain west at the same time as well, working to strengthen the southwesterly component of the flow pattern aloft toward the end of the period.
1221 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) South Texas will remain under the influence of a subsident mid level ridge through Saturday Night which keeps our weather quiet. That said, a weakness in the mid level ridge axis will persist over northeast Mexico through the period which will enhance diurnal convection over the Sierra Madre Mts. Mid to high level clouds will spread over South Texas this evening and again Saturday Evening as a result of this trough.
Temperatures remain on the cooler side compared to previous weeks with highs in the upper 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s.
1118 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure will build in from the west tonight, then settle to our south through the weekend. A cold front will cross the area Sunday night.
As such, some areas around Monterey Bay that struggled to break 60 degrees the last few days actually made it into the low 60.
Upper-level trough over the West Coast will be the primary synoptic-driving feature through the weekend. Afternoon highs will be similar to Saturday, except perhaps several degrees cooler within the vicinity of the Delta.
11 (Tonight through Sunday night) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and ridging swwd across the forecast area. Water vapor imagery continues to show the area in the nwrly flow aloft between a cutoff low off the srn Atlantic coastline and ridging up the center of the country. Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are again expected with dry air/lower dewpoints on the nrly low-level flow dominating.