Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
238 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 A quiet forecast period is expected as high pressure will continue to remain overhead. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-80s today with overnight lows in the low to mid-60s. Sunday will continue to be dry with temperatures climbing into the upper-80s with overnight lows back down into the low to mid-60s. The period will start with ridging at all levels from the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians through the southeast CONUS. A weak mid/upper level low will be riding northward through the southern plains around the western side of the ridge early in the week. It will get picked up by a trough lifting northeast out of the western CONUS.
210 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low in northern CA and a strong ridge across the plains into the sern U. The upper Great Lakes continue to be on the northern periphery of the strong ridge through 12z Sun.
1149 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (Rest of Today) Low to medium chances (20-50%) for rain showers will persist through the early to mid afternoon as a weak area of low pressure meanders along the LA/MS coast. As high pressure begins to nose into the region, we can expect partly to mostly sunny conditions to develop by the mid to late afternoon. Temperatures will respond by climbing back into the low to mid 80s.
Tomorrow, an upper low currently northeast of our area will expand and shift slightly westward bringing some low end precipitation chances to portions of the Hill Country, northern I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. As for temperatures tomorrow, highs will be very similar to today, possibly a degree or so cooler.
230 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 An elongated upper level ridge axis around 595 dam currently extends from southern Kansas to southern Illinois with low pressure over northwest California. The upper level low is forecast to move into Idaho Sunday night, pushing the upper ridge east of the area.
203 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will continue to influence the local area through mid-week.
1231 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) The short term forecast is still fairly mundane as upper ridging, increasing thickness, and southerly surface flow in response to lee troughing dominate this weekend, preserving above-normal temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. While we officially entered climatological fall September 1st, the cooler weather we can usually count on this time of year is nowhere to be seen. In regards to precipitation chances, subsidence due to the ridge placement to our NE will continue to keep us dry with any moisture too far east for us to benefit from.
323 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Strong mid-level ridging continues to extend from the Great Plains into the Southeast CONUS. Deeper moisture continues to stream in from the Gulf of Mexico on the eastern side of this low. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure is building in from the northeast, bringing in drier air and dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The entire pattern will retrograde today and Sunday, with the low moving into Texas and high pressure settling in over Georgia. Sunday morning will start out with light winds and temperatures in the low to mid 60s. High temperatures will climb under the influence of the high pressure regime, reaching into the upper 80s to near 90 on Sunday afternoon.
This and some slightly better moisture quality advecting into the region on the eastern periphery of a mid/upper level low and natural diurnal cycle all played a role in the rainfall this afternoon.
1207 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (Today through Sunday) A low pressure system is to our west. The spin of the low continues to bring in southerly flow to area, so we will continue to see the banding features through the day. The low will slide to the west a little more during the day, so rain chances will dwindle east to west through the afternoon and then really not much left after sunset. With plenty of clouds and pockets of rain, temperatures will only be in the low to mid 80s. Highs will be a little warmer, especially in the east, where less cloud cover is expected.
(Rest of today through Sunday) A backdoor "cold" front associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia will continue to gradually push across South Florida through this evening, ushering in very dry air behind it.
248 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Current surface analysis places high over the central Rockies with trough sliding through the northern plains. Upper level analysis places broad ridging over the northern plains into the upper midwest, with low off the west coast. On Sunday, another hot day is on tap as thermal ridge passes over, but changes are on the way as aforementioned upper low off the west coast opens up and starts to push to the east, shifting flow to the southwest over our area.
Highs will approach 90 degrees in some locations by Labor Day, and even warmer temperatures are expected by mid week. Ridging starts to build back into the region Sunday, keeping the latter half of the weekend dry. Lows will be similar to tonight, perhaps a couple of degrees warmer.
1231 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry weather will continue today across the forecast area as upper level high pressure remains overhead. An upper level low currently located over Louisiana will move west-northwest into North Texas today but will have little influence on our local weather as 500 mb heights remain near 595 dam and very dry air stays overhead. High temperatures will range from the mid-90s on the Caprock to over 100 degrees in the Rolling Plains, about 10 degrees warmer than average.
305 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Warmer and more humid afternoon ongoing as return flow has advected deeper moisture north into the Ohio Valley. The onset of the shift back to a hotter and more humid pattern has begun as broad ridging aloft has expanded east to encompass the region this afternoon. This ridge will be a primary catalyst in returning the Ohio Valley to a hotter pattern into the middle of the upcoming week. Sunday will be a similar day to today as the ridging aloft and at the surface remain the dominant influences. Low level thermals are a touch warmer Sunday and we will start warmer in the morning. as the center axis of the subtropical ridge gradually crosses Indiana. A pronounced upper trough will advance from the northwestern US to near Montana.
1130 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 The primary focus for today will be the potential for scattered to numerous showers & thunderstorms across much of southeast Wyoming/ western Nebraska as a plume of mid and high level moisture spreads northward along the western and northern periphery of broad upper- level ridging over the central and southern CONUS.
Compact upper level wave tracking through the northern Great Lakes has been able to generate isolated-scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms north of M-59 with the steep mid level lapse rates and moisture plume (850-700 MB Theta-E ridge) strung across northern Wisconsin/northern Michigan. With activity still noted across Wisconsin, will keep isolated mention going into the evening hours, although at least the 700 MB jet/wind speeds are diminishing after 00z which should lead to activity ending tonight as 700 MB ridge builds in for Sunday.
Expansive/broad upper ridge is expected to persist through the rest of the weekend across the Northern Plains.
713 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Through Sunday: The region remains in a weather regime driven by a mid/upper low over north TX and a rather moist airmass across the Deep South. Convective coverage will decrease overnight with the loss of diurnal instability, though with continued forcing from the mid/upper low, we could again see some showers persist through the early morning hours.
Currently - A deep layered ridge has setup over the southeastern United States. This along with the remnants of Idalia, well off the Atlantic coast, has driven freshening northeasterly breezes through the lower levels. Drier air is being carried in and dew points have fallen into the lower 70s. Temperatures currently range widely in the lower 80s. The incoming drier air will be much more substantive through the lower and mid levels, and is expected to be a significant impediment for convective development. Freshening northeasterlies will continue due to high pressure over the southeastern United States and the remnants of Idalia situated well off the Atlantic coast.
Warmer and more humid afternoon ongoing as return flow has advected deeper moisture north into the Ohio Valley. The onset of the shift back to a hotter and more humid pattern has begun as broad ridging aloft has expanded east to encompass the region this afternoon. This ridge will be a primary catalyst in returning the Ohio Valley to a hotter pattern into the middle of the upcoming week. Sunday will be a similar day to today as the ridging aloft and at the surface remain the dominant influences. Low level thermals are a touch warmer Sunday and we will start warmer in the morning. as the center axis of the subtropical ridge gradually crosses Indiana. A pronounced upper trough will advance from the northwestern US to near Montana.
Pleasant evening underway under partly to mostly cloudy skies and a E/NE breeze as high pressure builds over the E Seaboard and into the state advecting a noticeably drier air mass southward into the area.
717 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure will keep the area dry over the next several days, while temperatures start to warm once again. Continued benign ridge dominated regime for the weekend with NW flow aloft. Upper ridging looks to amplify some for Sunday along with a possible weak reinforcing dry front pushing southward. Temps look to moderate warmer for Sunday with most of the Piedmont having highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and the mountains mainly low to mid 80s. High pressure will remain in control across the Mid Atlantic to start the week. Temperatures will continue to soar above normal due to an upper level ridge building eastward towards the Appalachian Mountains.
359 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 The strong low over the west coast looks to advance very slowly and maybe weaken to an open trough. The broad ridge over the Midwest, South, and Southeast also looks to weaken. Flow aloft of Colorado should stay southwesterly and increase as the trough approaches. This evening and tonight, skies should gradually clear from mostly to partly cloudy by morning, while any isolated showers lingering in the high country diminish before midnight. Overnight low temperatures are forecast generally about 10 F warmer than normal across most of the area, especially the northern plains. Tomorrow, mostly cloudy skies over the high country by afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms and showers across the high country in the afternoon and evening, bringing more precipitation. It should be a bit cooler tomorrow, depending on how quickly sky cover increases.
457 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 An elongated upper level ridge axis around 595 dam currently extends from southern Kansas to southern Illinois with low pressure over northwest California. The upper level low is forecast to move into Idaho Sunday night, pushing the upper ridge east of the area.
609 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Tonight the upper ridge will extend from NM to VA with a low over NE TX and a strong low along the CA coast.
618 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Currently have strong upper ridging encompassing most of the Central and Southern Plains with water vapor showing a lingering upper circulation over the Arklatex region. Meanwhile, further west, an upper low is approaching northern CA. At the surface, lee troughing is in place across western Nebraska into Eastern CO with high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. Not much is expected to change through Sunday as the upper circulation tracks slowly west into northeast TX with upper ridging over the remainder of the Plains.
The strong low over the west coast looks to advance very slowly and maybe weaken to an open trough. The broad ridge over the Midwest, South, and Southeast also looks to weaken. Flow aloft of Colorado should stay southwesterly and increase as the trough approaches. This evening and tonight, skies should gradually clear from mostly to partly cloudy by morning, while any isolated showers lingering in the high country diminish before midnight. Overnight low temperatures are forecast generally about 10 F warmer than normal across most of the area, especially the northern plains. Tomorrow, mostly cloudy skies over the high country by afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms and showers across the high country in the afternoon and evening, bringing more precipitation. It should be a bit cooler tomorrow, depending on how quickly sky cover increases.
317 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 With strong high pressure in control across the region to begin this weekend, temperatures today have easily climbed into the mid to upper 90s. The west coast low pressure trough will eject disturbances into our region embedded with the SW flow aloft.
1059 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Minor updates this evening to reflect current observations, but otherwise, forecast is on track with high pressure in control of our weather. Discussion: High pressure will remain stationary over the southern Appalachians through tonight.
Current surface analysis places high over the central Rockies with trough sliding through the northern plains. Upper level analysis places broad ridging over the northern plains into the upper midwest, with low off the west coast. On Sunday, another hot day is on tap as thermal ridge passes over, but changes are on the way as aforementioned upper low off the west coast opens up and starts to push to the east, shifting flow to the southwest over our area.
The upper low that has been swinging low level moisture, with cooler temperatures aloft brining instability to the region, continue to wobble of the northern California coast this afternoon. The upper low then fills slowly as it moves inland, and with abundant moisture from many days of precipitation on ground still very warm from the many hot days previous, combining with cooler air aloft there will be some remaining instability as the upper trough shifts east. With Theta E convergence over western Siskiyou county and up northeastward up the Cascades thunderstorm are possible in addition to the far east side as this upper trough shifts east out of the region tomorrow afternoon into the evening.
/EC/ Through Sunday: The region remains in a weather regime driven by a mid/upper low over north TX and a rather moist airmass across the Deep South. Convective coverage will decrease overnight with the loss of diurnal instability, though with continued forcing from the mid/upper low, we could again see some showers persist through the early morning hours.
A frontal system will approach the area tonight and move through on Sunday for cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances.
517 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 19z surface analysis had trough/dry-line from central MT to Faith to KANW. Upper low off the northern CA coast. Few mid/high clouds over the CWA allowing for robust insolation and temperatures rocketing into the 90s to around 100F - some 80s over the higher elevations. Main concern this forecast is disposition of upper ridge/upper low.
639 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (This evening through Sunday night) Through Sunday, dry upper ridge, very apparent on satellite over W TX/KS/MO, will tend to wane as an upper low, currently over the ArkLaTex region, churns northwestward and western CONUS trough advances eastward. With southwesterly flow aloft slowly returning, surface lee troughing looks to be maintained to our west, driving a bit of a southerly breeze.
711 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (Rest of today through Sunday) A backdoor "cold" front associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia will continue to gradually push across South Florida through this evening, ushering in very dry air behind it.
Lows will fall into the low to mid 70s with light winds. Drying east-northeast flow will deepen through Sunday, as the upper low swirling near the Arklatex region retrogrades west and exits out of our weather picture.
Local HRRR suggests weak coastal troughing which could allow for a few (20pct) low-topped coastal showers to develop and creep onshore late into early Sun morning. Slightly cooler overnight mins forecast with L-M70s, except U70s along the immediate coast and adjacent barrier islands.
735 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Aviation -- Very small chance for a shower or storm this evening -- High pressure that brought dry air and cool temperatures to the area the last few days has slipped away to the south today. What has occurred though is a narrow ribbon of moisture is in place along a warm front essentially moving from north to south into Central Lower Michigan.
942 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure over the Carolinas will weaken and move off the SE US coast on Sunday as a low pressure trough develops over the North Carolina Piedmont. Otherwise, upper level ridging will extend into the area from the west through mid week. Surface conditions have gone calm across a majority of central NC due to the expansive, although weakening, high pressure over the southern Mid-Atlantic. Upstairs, aside from some very thin cirrus, dry N- NWLY between an expansive ridge to the west and a deep upper trough over the western Atlantic will result in mostly clear/sunny conditions. Lows in the lower to middle 60s.
545 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 There's certainly no lack of moisture in the lower levels across eastern Utah and western Colorado today. The cutoff low pressure that has been off the West Coast the last few days will begin to move inland tonight. What this newly mobile trough will also do is increase the pressure gradient aloft. Showers will begin to taper after sunset, but as the trough approaches Utah, an uptick in nocturnal convection is in the cards.
Daytime highs today topped out in the lower to middle 80s under clearing skies. Aside from a few lingering clouds to our South/West this evening (which should dissipate around/after midnight), mostly clear skies will prevail overnight as high pressure builds into the area. Morning lows will fall into the lower 60s in the East and the upper 60s in the West.
730 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure over the Carolinas will weaken and move off the SE US coast on Sunday as a low pressure trough develops over the North Carolina Piedmont. Otherwise, upper level ridging will extend into the area from the west through mid week. Upstairs, aside from some very thin cirrus, dry N- NWLY between an expansive ridge to the west and a deep upper trough over the western Atlantic will result in mostly clear/sunny conditions. Lows in the lower to middle 60s.
(This evening through Sunday) Strong mid-level ridging continues to extend from the Great Plains into the Southeast CONUS. Deeper moisture continues to stream in from the Gulf of Mexico on the eastern side of this low. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure is building in from the northeast, bringing in drier air and dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The entire pattern will retrograde today and Sunday, with the low moving into Texas and high pressure settling in over Georgia. Sunday morning will start out with light winds and temperatures in the low to mid 60s. High temperatures will climb under the influence of the high pressure regime, reaching into the upper 80s to near 90 on Sunday afternoon.
952 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure will keep the area dry over the next several days, while temperatures start to warm once again. Continued benign ridge dominated regime for the weekend with NW flow aloft. Upper ridging looks to amplify some for Sunday along with a possible weak reinforcing dry front pushing southward. Temps look to moderate warmer for Sunday with most of the Piedmont having highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and the mountains mainly low to mid 80s. High pressure will remain in control across the Mid Atlantic to start the week. Temperatures will continue to soar above normal due to an upper level ridge building eastward towards the Appalachian Mountains.
641 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (Tonight) Cloud cover has hung around a little bit longer than expected, but temperatures have still climbed into the low to mid 80s.
116 AM MDT Sun Sep 3 2023 An elongated upper level ridge axis around 595 dam currently extends from southern Kansas to southern Illinois with low pressure over northwest California. The upper level low is forecast to move into Idaho Sunday night, pushing the upper ridge east of the area. For Monday/Monday night, the remnants of the upper low and its associated trough move northeast into southwest South Dakota.
While precipitation chances have been adjusted under the continued influence of an upper level low pressure system, the overall pattern remains unchanged. The best chances will be Sunday afternoon and evening, but depend on the movement of the upper low as it starts to move eastward. Scattered showers continue across northern California and southern Oregon this evening as a low pressure system remains over the area.
Midnight observations show a 595 dm high centered over central Kansas with a weak upper low retrograding through northern Texas. At the surface a lee side trough of low pressure extends from southwest Nebraska through southeastern Colorado.
An upper level low continues to drift westward across the vicinity of northeast TX this evening, while a surface frontal boundary has become oriented just offshore over the northern Gulf waters.
Satellite imagery this morning shows the dynamic upper low where it was expected to be, spinning over Northern California.
234 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 An expansive high pressure ridge will maintain control over our weather for much of the upcoming week.
350 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 High pressure will remain in control providing fair weather through at least mid-week. The next chance of rain comes late this week as a cold front approaches from the north. Temperatures will also cool as the upper ridge is replaced by a trough. Expansive high pressure remains over the region today with upper ridging aloft.
Satellite shows mainly clear skies across northern Maine, but more cloud cover across Downeast Maine associated with a weak area of low pressure moving eastward across eastern Massachusetts.
/NEW/ /Through Monday/ With an upper low becoming positioned directly over North Texas today, scattered shower and thunderstorm development should occur later this afternoon during peak heating. The low humidity experienced the past few days will come to an end with surface dewpoints climbing back into the 60s for most locations. The stagnant upper low providing today's rain chances will become absorbed into stronger mid-latitude flow tomorrow, exiting the region to the northeast.
1139 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 There's certainly no lack of moisture in the lower levels across eastern Utah and western Colorado today. The cutoff low pressure that has been off the West Coast the last few days will begin to move inland tonight. What this newly mobile trough will also do is increase the pressure gradient aloft. Showers will begin to taper after sunset, but as the trough approaches Utah, an uptick in nocturnal convection is in the cards. On Monday, the trough will pass just to our north and clip the northwest half of the forecast area. The trough brings cooler temperatures to the area so expect highs to be near normal to slightly below in spots. Gusts of 25 mph look common while the higher gusts may reach 40 mph.
An upper-level trough will tilt negatively as a low at its base moves northeast. As we move into tonight, the upper-level low will transform into a trough, ushering in a period of gentler yet consistent rainfall over central and southwest Idaho, as well as southwestern Montana. This precipitation pattern is anticipated to evolve into scattered showers and thunderstorms as Monday progresses, coinciding with the eastward movement of the trough.