Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/NEW/ /Tonight and Thursday/ A dry cold front returned chilly north winds to the region this morning. Wrap-around moisture from a departing upper low in the Midwest may bring additional stratocu and a few mid clouds on Thursday. However, the cooler start to the day and persistent low-level cold advection will play a far bigger role in shaving a couple of degrees off daytime highs. Wind chills in the 20s and 30s will make Thursday feel noticeably cooler than today.
1008 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Additional light moisture in the form of light snow and drizzle with temps near freezing will occur today, mainly SE ND into MN, but gradually diminish in time.
In the upper levels, a prominent closed low over the Central Plains will shift into the middle Mississippi Valley tonight. This will bring north to northwest flow to South Central Texas with drier and cooler air filtering into the area. At the surface, high pressure continues to influence the area with mostly clear skies persisting through the period. Highs tomorrow will be approximately 2-5 degrees cooler than today topping out in the mid 50s to mid 60s depending on location. Winds shift from the north to northeast Thursday night with more chilly overnight lows expected ranging from the low 30s across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and northern I-35 corridor to around 40 degrees in the far southern portion of the CWA.
(This evening through Thursday night) A large cut off low remains stationed over the lower Missouri Valley this afternoon, leaving the Panhandles underneath a northwest flow regime. As this low churns and meanders eastward, perturbations will work their way across the eastern periphery of the forecast area tonight and tomorrow. Breezy north winds (15-25 mph) and occasional cloud cover will keep high temperatures cooler by a few degrees in the northeast today and tomorrow, with most of the CWA in the 40s to low 50s.
Air/ground temperatures above freezing will help limit overall amounts. With air and ground temperatures above freezing, only an additional dusting of accumulation is expected on elevated surfaces.
338 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2023 A large low pressure system will bring periods of steady rain to the area through tonight.
Areas on the backside of the upper low barely got out of the 30s today, looking temperatures across the area tomorrow to be about 10 degrees cooler as the low moves slightly south and east. Areas with a blanket of clouds will be closer to 15 degrees cooler.
141 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2023 Dry conditions under mostly clear skies will prevail tonight through Thursday as a ridge of high pressure prevails over the Rockies.
1125 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Today and Tonight: A closed low pressure system spinning over northwest Missouri early this morning is dominating much of the flow across the central and eastern CONUS today. As high pressure continues to build on the western side of this low pressure system tonight, cooler conditions will once again settle in along the Gulf Coast. Even with perhaps a little flow overnight, Min Temps are generally expected to range from the upper 20s to lower 30s near freezing.
1252 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2023 A cold front will slowly move through the area today, with dry air beginning to filter in behind it this afternoon and evening.
1137 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Light snow and a slight chance of freezing rain continue today and tonight across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The culprit is a backed occluded front which will drift very slowly east today and tonight; acting like a warm front.
127 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2023 High pressure continues to extend across the lower Mid-Atlantic from the New England region, maintaining a very moist easterly windflow off the Atlantic and across the central Appalachians. A cold front west of the Appalachians will pass across the region tonight, resulting in a westerly wind shift.
200 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Light amounts of snow (a few tenths) will be possible (40-50%) tonight across southwest Kansas mainly between the highway 83 and highway 183 corridors.
1230 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2023 Low pressure will track across eastern NC today, then along and offshore the middle Atlantic and southern New England coasts tonight through Thursday.
The Keys are within deep layer ridging, although the upper level heights are beginning to fall (see 12Z RAOBs). The SFC flow across the Keys is northwest to north and light, and connected to the lower pressure system sliding east near the Carolinas. The pattern will change quickly overnight, with a developing low pressure system pressing east through the Keys Thursday morning. Another cold front will push through the area Wednesday night and Thursday, with a sharp but relatively brief freshening of northerly breezes expected in its wake.
310 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2023 Low pressure will track up the East Coast overnight. An upper level low moving from the Plains to the East Coast will bring more seasonable temperatures. The bulk of rainfall with the low remains near the coastline, although there is a narrow band of rain extending from Virginia south into Roxboro, Durham, and Fayetteville. Despite the low moving away, low overcast skies are expected to continue through the night.
1138 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) A very slow moving upper level low over the Midwestern U. Seasonal highs in the 50s to low 60s can be expected both today and tomorrow with lows tonight dropping below freezing for most locations.
A band of precip will likely swing cyclonically through the region along an inverted trough. The highest chance for precip is along and west of I-65 and over southern Indiana. Winds will be a bit breezy in the afternoon, gusting around 15mph, which will bring the wind chill into the low 30s.
157 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2023 A ridge of warm high pressure from the southwest and extending well through our region remains in control of the weather pattern for northeast Montana for the next several days.
An upper level trough moving onshore is bringing rain to the Pacific Northwest coast, but this trough will weaken significantly as it moves inland as it encounters an upper level ridge over our area. However, surface temperatures will be near freezing with pockets of freezing rain possible. Local LLWS in southeast Oregon and the lower Treasure Valley through 28/06z.
1145 AM EST Wed Dec 27 2023 A cold front will slowly move through the area today, with dry air beginning to filter in behind it this afternoon and evening.
1100 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 (Today through Thursday) The center of a large upper low will slowly track across Missouri today.
High pressure keeps the area dry through the rest of the work week, with temperatures near or above normal. The pattern becomes more active this weekend as a series of systems move into the region, bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation chances. The added cloud cover will work to keep our afternoon temperatures near normal, despite a high pressure ridge being parked overhead.
However, another cold night with lows below freezing, with mid 20s in low lying areas and river valleys.
219 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Light amounts of snow (a few tenths) will be possible (40-50%) tonight across southwest Kansas mainly between the highway 83 and highway 183 corridors.
945 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Lingering very light precipitation, in the form of a mix of snow and drizzle, with temperatures right around the freezing mark.
BT Dry conditions under mostly sunny skies will prevail today with high pressure aloft. Temperatures look to be a little warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Areas with snow cover may stay a few degrees cooler as has been the case the past few days. Forecast continues to be dominated by ridging aloft which will keep temperatures mild and dry conditions in the lower elevations. With the ridge axis over the area winds will not be too strong either setting up a period with well above normal temperatures but not too much wind, perfect for getting outdoors.
(Tonight-Thursday) Large upper cyclone over the heart of the nation will continue to affect the weather over our area for another day to 2 days. Another wave/slug of cold air aloft currently on the north side of the broad cyclone will rotate around and come south across the region on Thursday.
Today, dry weather will prevail throughout the afternoon as high pressure continues to move eastward.
210 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2023 Low pressure will track up the East Coast overnight. An upper level low moving from the Plains to the East Coast will bring more seasonable temperatures. The bulk of rainfall with the low remains near the coastline, although there is a narrow band of rain extending from Virginia south into Roxboro, Durham, and Fayetteville. Despite the low moving away, low overcast skies are expected to continue through the night.
With the upper low now over IA/MO, some wraparound moisture continues across central SD. As upper ridging builds over the western CONUS, weather will become dry and mild through the end of the week.
1053 AM EST Wed Dec 27 2023 Update The lower deck of clouds was working it's way southwestward a little quicker than expected. We will still be on the warm side of the system (colder air to our south over the Ohio river valley), and even in the highlands of central Michigan temperatures should be just warm enough to avoid freezing drizzle.
It runs into the high pressure sitting over top of us which is what will limit any real potential for snowfall. This high pressure remains in place as we wind down this work week. With high pressure overhead, look for afternoon highs to continue to slowly warm and cloud cover overnight should also keep our temperatures up a bit, too.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) Latest water vapor imagery indicates a large closed low continuing to churn over the central portion of the country, nearing the Middle Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Light and somewhat variable surface flow serves to maintain fairly quiescent conditions through the next 36 hours, with another cold night ahead tonight as temperatures once again fall below freezing for most of the region.
Winds will continue to veer southwesterly today and this will result in warmer afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. This will all be ahead of the next cold front approaching from the northwest which will move across the area late tonight into Thursday morning.
- Freezing drizzle will be possible through the late afternoon for areas around Highway 2 in eastern ND. - Freezing drizzle and light snow will be possible (20%) along and south of I-94 through the late evening hours creating slick travel at times.
1138 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Lingering very light precipitation, in the form of a mix of snow and drizzle, with temperatures right around the freezing mark.
(This evening through Thursday) Water vapor imagery currently shows the very stubborn upper level low over the upper Midwest region where it is expected to make little to no movement over the next 24 hours. To our west, upper level ridging will continue to slowly shift eastward into the region from the desert southwest. Similar to the upper level low, little to no change has been made to the short term forecast. Overnight lows tonight will range from the low 20s in the far southwestern TX Panhandle to near 30 in the southeastern Rolling Plains as clear skies and light winds prevail.
* Quieter weather arrives for Thursday through the weekend, however, temperatures remain cooler in the 30s for most locations due to recent snowpack. Lingering precipitation will continue tonight as light snow wraps around the departing low pressure system. Despite some locations across the west seeing sun for most of the day, high temperatures will remain cooler in the low to mid 30s due to recent snowpack.
107 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Light precipitation, in the form of a mix of snow and drizzle/freezing drizzle, with temperatures right around or just below the freezing mark to end later this evening.
This is due to a slow-moving trough over the Central Great Plains that is on its way towards the Mid-South by the end of the week. Attendant to this trough is a weak, dry cold front that has already proceeded to our east and across the Mississippi River valley, delivering ample CAA in its wake. As a result, slightly cooler than normal conditions return tonight, with temperature minimums back down to the upper 20s/lower 30s.
(The rest of today ) A low pressure area continues to spin to the north of the forecast area, sending bands of clouds and occasional light precipitation at times.
228 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Light snow, perhaps occasionally mixed with drizzle or freezing drizzle, is expected into this evening, mainly northwest of a Yankton to Sioux Falls to Marshall line. Impacts from the snow and freezing drizzle are expected to be minor although some light accumulations are possible along with periods of reduced visibility.
Water vapor imagery depicts a distinct short wave near the Rio Grande entering the base of a positively tilted long wave trough axis. Based on our 12Z RAOB this morning and the satellite trends, the mid to upper level ridge is ceding ground to the morphing cyclops over the Central US. SFC observations across western Cuba and the Yucatan highlight dewpoints in the lower 70s, corroborated by the improved moisture on GOES TPW.
----BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper ridge will be over Montana the next several days as the slow moving upper low in the Central Plains drifts slowly east through the Midwest.
The Northern Rockies will remain on the western periphery of a ridge of high pressure through the rest of the day today and Thursday.
An upper level low remains centered over central MO slowly drifting eastward.
The parent area of low pressure continues to sit over the central United States with an eastward movement forecast through the week. Favored temperatures closer to MOS guidance, noting that the NBM was on the cooler side of the envelope for high temperatures on Thursday. While the rain and cloud cover will certainly keep things cooler, most of the guidance members were at least a degree or two warmer in most locations from the blend.
601 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2023 Dry air will continue to move in behind a cold front tonight.
Cold temperatures in the valleys of Southwest and Central Montana will attempt to mix out tomorrow, providing an opportunity for these areas to see temperatures closer to normal to close the week, while the plains continue to see warmer than normal temperatures into at least the weekend. Upper level ridging will largely dominate through this period. The only deviation from upper level ridging will be a brief wave passing through the flow aloft which will briefly result in a more zonal flow aloft tonight into tomorrow. This low probability seems reasonable, given cloud cover forecast to move in tonight.
757 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Gusty northwest winds diminishing over the plains by this evening - Quiet weather through most of the week Winds have calmed down this evening as the large low pressure system that has impacted the area for the past few days departs. The large upper low continues shifting more eastward through Missouri this afternoon and finally seeing improving conditions across eastern Colorado. For Thursday, high pressure ridge aloft builds in from the west across the region with dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures.
811 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 A closed off upper level low is sitting over MO. This is pushing a cold front through Middle TN this evening and we are seeing some light showers along this front. Much cooler tomorrow with highs only in the low to mid 40s.
256 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2023 1) Warmer and drier conditions expected through New years.
429 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2023 1) Warmer and drier conditions expected through New years.
532 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 (This evening through Thursday) The expansive, occluded mid-latitude cyclone continues to cylonically spin across the Midwest as it slowly drifts to the east. Any measurable precipitation will be quite light as the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) mean liquid equivalent precipitation is 0. The lowest temperatures are expected across northwest into west central Oklahoma, where the cloud cover will be most abundant.
637 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Overnight - Snow ending, but a few slick spots are possible, mainly on bridges/overpasses to the northwest of the Twin Cities Metro overnight.
Early evening KTBW radar imagery is showing light showers streaming across the Gulf and into the Nature Coast ahead of the approaching cold front. That said, rain totals are forecast to remain around a half inch or less, with the highest rain totals expected to the south. Periods of MVFR and IFR conditions expected through at least Thursday morning, with the lowest ceilings expected around 11-14z. Showers will be possible across the coastal waters through Thursday morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Key Message: - chance (25-30%) for temperatures falling below 32 degrees tonight and Thursday night High pressure builds into S Texas tonight with cold air spilling into the Hill and Brush Countries. High pressure remains over the region for Thursday producing sunny skies and light winds.
547 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) A large cut off low remains stationed over the lower Missouri Valley this afternoon, leaving the Panhandles underneath a northwest flow regime. As this low churns and meanders eastward, perturbations will work their way across the eastern periphery of the forecast area tonight and tomorrow. Breezy north winds (15-25 mph) and occasional cloud cover will keep high temperatures cooler by a few degrees in the northeast today and tomorrow, with most of the CWA in the 40s to low 50s.
530 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) Latest water vapor imagery indicates a large closed low continuing to churn over the central portion of the country, nearing the Middle Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Light and somewhat variable surface flow serves to maintain fairly quiescent conditions through the next 36 hours, with another cold night ahead tonight as temperatures once again fall below freezing for most of the region.
235 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Gusty northwest winds diminishing over the plains by this evening - Quiet weather through most of the week The large upper low continues shifting more eastward through Missouri this afternoon and finally seeing improving conditions across eastern Colorado. For Thursday, high pressure ridge aloft builds in from the west across the region with dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures.
Flow aloft remains out of the north across the Western Slope this afternoon as the region sits in between the strong low over the Plains and a narrowly amplified ridge to our west. These clouds look to dissipate on Thursday night as the aforementioned ridge axis shifts northeast into the Dakotas, advecting additional dry air into the region in addition to weakening the gradient overhead. Right now, the probability for this to occur in the Central Colorado River Basin tonight is around 10 to 20 percent with greater potential of 30 to 40 percent in the Lower and Central Yampa River Basins. Some of the higher elevations and northern zones could see lows that are 10 or more degrees below normal tonight.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Evening/ An upper low near St Louis will move east across southern Illinois over the next 24 hours, eventually reaching the southern part of Indiana tomorrow night. Clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall to or below freezing for just about all of the forecast area Thursday night. /Issued 307 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023/ /Thursday night through Wednesday/ Thursday night has the upper low situated over the Midwest.
* Cooler conditions expected for New Year's Eve into New Year's Day Stacked upper level low has moved into Central Missouri and is continuing to fill and weaken. With weak lift and cyclonic curvature, light rain/snow is possible near the low center through the overnight hours.
satellite imagery this afternoon continues to show an upper low over north-central Missouri, with broad northerly flow across Colorado. the upper low will continue to drift eastward through the day tomorrow.
Issued 340 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Tonight through Thursday night: Mid to high clouds will continue to move through southern Wisconsin this afternoon and evening as the low pressure over Missouri and Illinois slowly moves eastward. GFS/NAM soundings depict profiles with temperatures generally right around freezing. This, combined with shallow warm/cold layers, leads to uncertainty in how melting/freezing may occur as the precipitation falls. However, the best chance for mainly snow will occur Thursday morning and across southwestern Wisconsin where temperatures are expected to be closer to freezing.
532 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Water vapor imagery currently shows the very stubborn upper level low over the upper Midwest region where it is expected to make little to no movement over the next 24 hours. To our west, upper level ridging will continue to slowly shift eastward into the region from the desert southwest. Similar to the upper level low, little to no change has been made to the short term forecast. Overnight lows tonight will range from the low 20s in the far southwestern TX Panhandle to near 30 in the southeastern Rolling Plains as clear skies and light winds prevail.
514 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) Key Message: - chance (25-30%) for temperatures falling below 32 degrees tonight and Thursday night High pressure builds into S Texas tonight with cold air spilling into the Hill and Brush Countries. High pressure remains over the region for Thursday producing sunny skies and light winds.
626 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2023 A large low pressure system will bring periods of steady rain to the area through tonight.
515 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Light precipitation, in the form of a mix of snow and drizzle/freezing drizzle, with temperatures right around or just below the freezing mark to end later this evening.
-Chance (~40%) of rain and snow Thursday afternoon with the highest rainfall accumulations east of the area. Mesoscale features continue to drive precipitation this afternoon as an upper level low to the south continues to churn moisture around the northern flank of the low center. Localized mesoscale banding has reinvigorated some precipitation east of the metro this afternoon, but low level temperatures are above freezing, inhibiting snow accumulation. At this time, temperatures are anticipated to remain above freezing until the precipitation tapers off. Synoptic forcing will pivot around the low tomorrow and bring additional chances of rain and snow to mainly the eastern half of the state. Surface wet bulbs will be above freezing and allow for a rain/snow mix and melting to occur once again.
649 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2023 Low pressure will track up the East Coast overnight. An upper level low moving from the Plains to the East Coast will bring more seasonable temperatures. The bulk of rainfall with the low remains near the coastline, although there is a narrow band of rain extending from Virginia south into Roxboro, Durham, and Fayetteville. Despite the low moving away, low overcast skies are expected to continue through the night.
630 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2023 Aviation - Light rain will increase tonight The main area of low pressure sets up over the southeast part of the state later tonight.
Overnight temperatures will mainly be in the low to mid 50s, with locations in far north southeast GA having temperatures in the upper 40s.
A cold front moves across the area Thu evening and overnight, and will usher in cooler/drier air.
- Light rain will increase tonight The main area of low pressure sets up over the southeast part of the state later tonight.