Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Rest of tonight) A mid/upper-level cyclone currently across the central Great Lakes will shift slowly east-northeastward into southern QC and adjacent portions of western New England by 12Z. Intense westerly flow aloft across the TN Valley will subside as this occurs, with broad streamline confluence between the cyclone to our north and a subtropical ridge centered across the FL Straits expected to promote dry weather conditions overnight. Present indications are that the southern edge of cold air stratus associated with the upper cyclone may reach as far south as the I-40 corridor in Middle TN, but should not penetrate into our CWFA.
909 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Westerly winds have subsided in the wake of today's cold front, generally setting in the 5-10 mph range. Temperatures will be much closer to climatology overnight with lows generally in the low/mid 30s.
347 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 Low pressure across the eastern Great Lakes will move off the northern New England coast by tonight. High pressure will then briefly build into the Ohio Valley for Saturday.
It will be noticeably cooler the next few days as our high temps fall to near seasonal levels. Low temps the next 2 nights will be close to freezing with highs upper 40s.
1114 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 (Tonight) The evening sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging extending from KS SE through OK/ECntrl TX into N LA. Meanwhile, the evening satellite imagery indicates areas of cirrus that continue to increase from the W, and thickening as the subtropical jet has been tapped ahead of the next digging upper trough/closed low digging through Srn NV into SE CA/Srn AZ. Have lowered min temps across portions of SE OK/SW AR/N LA/Lower E TX to reflect these cooler conditions, while also tapering back the sky wording a bit, with the greatest concentration of AC cigs developing overnight across Deep E TX and the Srn sections of NCntrl LA.
Weak high pressure with a weak northern jet stream across the northern tier CONUS will prevail through Saturday, producing benign conditions across the area with a lack of appreciable temperature advection. In fact, the overall lack of stronger winds in the mid- and-upper levels will help maintain cloud cover across the area as warmer temperatures over the fresh snowpack will aid in keeping moisture across the region that will be unable to be effectively transported elsewhere. Therefore, while the southern jet will be much more active, helping transport a well-defined low pressure system across the Gulf Coast states, partly to mostly cloudy skies will remain in place for the end of this week. Along those lines, temperatures will also not be impacted much even on the backside of the departing low pressure system which produced snowfall yesterday.
318 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Thin scattered cirrus was overspreading western Kansas overnight well ahead of an upper low over the desert southwest heading in our direction. The boundary layer wind field remained light, and forecast to become lighter though the day as and 850 mb ridge axis sets up around mid afternoon. Lots of mid level clouds overspread the area late afternoon while models still warm temperatures into the low 50s over the southern portion of the DDC forecast area. Cooler 40s are fairly well agreed upon my the models farther north along the I-70 corridor. Still Moderate impacts will be widespread over areas from around Garden city and north, where the trough of warm air aloft should have time to enhance snow amounts.
(Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning as a large area of high pressure builds into the region. All in all, this ridge will promote clear and dry conditions, with light northwesterly winds helping to reinforce the cooler air mass.
438 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Current surface analysis places generally high pressure stretching from the southern Canadian Prairies through the Great Plains, though a little low is noted sliding through the Dakotas, wrapping an area of low clouds and fog in behind it.
Tonight, an upper lvl trough is expected to approach the S Plains and an assocd Pacific front will pass through the region, shifting winds out of the west.
205 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2023 Areas of dense freezing fog and low clouds cover parts of NE Montana early this morning. West and NW winds today will push the low clouds to the east. The system will bring a weak warm front through the area late tonight and Saturday morning which could bring a slight chance of light snow in the east.
532 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 High pressure has settled into the region providing a lull in precipitation for the Mid-South until our next chance of rain Saturday afternoon as an occluding cold front moves across the region.
600 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 (Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning as a large area of high pressure builds into the region. All in all, this ridge will promote clear and dry conditions, with light northwesterly winds helping to reinforce the cooler air mass.
415 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 A few light showers continue across the southern half of the area this morning, with the cold front boundary just to the north of the CWA. Highs Saturday in the mid 60s north to lower 80s south and lows Sat night in the lower 50s to mid 60s.
Water vapour loop had weak upper low over southern MB with strong system over northwest AZ.
Cloud cover in most of north-central Idaho and western Montana has kept temperatures mild overnight, and the high temperature forecast for today has been raised in the valleys that have been slow to cool. A ridge of high pressure is building into the region, and most of the cloud cover projections show clearing of the lower cloud cover today. The strong cold frontal passage remains on track for Saturday evening through Saturday night. Temperatures rapidly dropping from above freezing to well below freezing with snow and winds increases the threat for ice development. There are still some difference in the track of the associated low pressure system, so there is still a 50% chance for this scenario playing out.
A closed low was located over southern portions of Lake Michigan. A broad trough of low pressure extended south of this feature into the lower Ohio Valley. Further southwest, a closed low was located north of Las Vegas Nevada. A trough extended south of this feature to northern portions of Baja California. Ridging was present from eastern Colorado, north-northwest into southern Montana.
High pressure has settled into the region providing a lull in precipitation for the Mid-South until our next chance of rain Saturday afternoon as an occluding cold front moves across the region.
(Today through Saturday) Yesterday's cold front has moved to well south of the CWA this morning. High pressure will build in from the west today, and then move overhead tomorrow.
High pressure will slide by to the south tonight into Saturday, with dry weather likely for this period. Could see a break in the low clouds on Saturday, though higher clouds will be rolling in ahead of the next approaching low.
The main storm system, low pressure, will be in the Gulf of Mexico, south of Baton Rouge, so most of the precipitation will be over-running the warm front as it lifts slowly northward Saturday, but remains off shore.
After a cold morning with freezing temperatures to the coast, temperatures will undergo a strong rebound under building building high pressure and clear skies.
As the upper low moves towards the area today, the surface pressure gradient will tighten, resulting in breezy southerly to southeasterly surface flow. As the upper low moves to our north, it will push a Pacific front through the region tonight.
A few light showers continue across the southern half of the area this morning, with the cold front boundary just to the north of the CWA. Highs Saturday in the mid 60s north to lower 80s south and lows Sat night in the lower 50s to mid 60s.
549 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Despite surface pressure staying generally above 1020mb through much of this period, we will have a couple of weak troughs moving through the area in our busy weather pattern. and a small/weak trough over eastern SD into western and central SD. This trough will slide east across the forecast area through the day, with a reinforcing shot of cold air at 850mb. Have been highlighting the potential for freezing for or a light freezing drizzle to cause slick roadways or other surfaces this morning. We'll see a ridge of high pressure returning to all but far northeastern SD and west central MN by 00Z Saturday. However, it will be suppressed to the southeast as the next sfc-500mb trough nears from the northwest Friday night and dominates out weather Saturday.
However, drier and quieter conditions will look to follow that evening with high pressure and a ridge looking to build over the region. Heading into the late evening and overnight hours, models are still on track to see a ridge build in behind the trough. Drier but colder weather will look to follow with this ridge as the synoptic flow shifts more northerly allowing for colder air to hold over the region.
638 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 For early morning update, have added the mention of patchy freezing drizzle throughout the area. Current surface analysis places generally high pressure stretching from the southern Canadian Prairies through the Great Plains, though a little low is noted sliding through the Dakotas, wrapping an area of low clouds and fog in behind it.
848 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 Low pressure across the eastern Great Lakes will move off the northern New England coast by tonight. High pressure will then briefly build into the Ohio Valley for Saturday.
322 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Despite surface pressure staying generally above 1020mb through much of this period, we will have a couple of weak troughs moving through the area in our busy weather pattern. and a small/weak trough over eastern SD into western and central SD. This trough will slide east across the forecast area through the day, with a reinforcing shot of cold air at 850mb. Have been highlighting the potential for freezing for or a light freezing drizzle to cause slick roadways or other surfaces this morning. We'll see a ridge of high pressure returning to all but far northeastern SD and west central MN by 00Z Saturday. However, it will be suppressed to the southeast as the next sfc-500mb trough nears from the northwest Friday night and dominates out weather Saturday.
Thin scattered cirrus was overspreading western Kansas overnight well ahead of an upper low over the desert southwest heading in our direction. The boundary layer wind field remained light, and forecast to become lighter though the day as and 850 mb ridge axis sets up around mid afternoon. Lots of mid level clouds overspread the area late afternoon while models still warm temperatures into the low 50s over the southern portion of the DDC forecast area. Cooler 40s are fairly well agreed upon my the models farther north along the I-70 corridor. Still Moderate impacts will be widespread over areas from around Garden city and north, where the trough of warm air aloft should have time to enhance snow amounts.
There will be some occasional lift into the moist layer so not out of the realm of possibilities to see some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle with temperatures near the freezing mark. At this point given the lower chance and lower confidence we have left it out of the forecast.
240 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Forecast highlight in the short term period will be the low level clouds and fog finally scouring out. This pressure pattern results in a westerly wind across western and central North Dakota, and is helping to scour out the low level stratus and fog. Currently we are clear of the low clouds west and across much of the north. If current trends/clearing hold, we should see most of the low stratus moving out of central North Dakota by late this afternoon/early this evening at the latest. For tonight, open wave mid level trough will push southeast across the Dakotas. Should see plenty of sunshine once the open wave trough and associated cloud cover moves off to our south.
Mean layer ridging centered over the Western Caribbean has moved very little over the past 24-hours. The forecast calls for highs in the lower 80s, mostly sunny skies, and near nil rain chances. An area of high pressure will build over the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday, then move offshore into the western North Atlantic by Saturday night.
Still may be too dry in the low layers that activity at first will be just virga or sprinkles, however, activity will continue to increase during the afternoon with better probability of the light rain reaching the ground.
We will see a dry period, with a mostly clear/partly cloudy sky tonight and quite a bit of sunshine on Saturday, although high clouds will begin to increase from south to north Saturday as the high pressure shifts off to our east and the next system begins to approach.
Weak surface ridging should continue to slowly shift east across the Lower Mississippi Valley allowing for a sufficient amount of northerly return flow to build across the southern half of our CWA.
Even so, surface temperatures may still be just above freezing for a time to limit snow accums especially closer to the highway 50 corridor. Some light snow accums will be possible late Saturday on the back side of the upper trof across the Wichita area, though probably an inch or less.
346 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 As low pressure continues to push east of our region tonight, surface and upper level ridging will begin to build into our area and remain for Saturday.
(This evening through Saturday) Southeasterly winds have picked up this afternoon as a low pressure system continues to strengthen over the Rockies. An associated cold front will move through west central Texas by tomorrow evening. The moisture depth looks to be shallow with dry air in the low levels, so rain chances will be next to nothing. Given the influx of cloud cover and higher dewpoints, low temperatures should remain in the low to mid 40s tonight. The coldest air with this system should remain well to the northwest across the Panhandle so high temperatures look to reach the low to mid 60s.
Given this, decided to stick with the fog/low clouds/freezing drizzle for eastern areas during the overnight. Soundings are still somewhat supportive of freezing drizzle in the Glacial Lakes region eastward at least through 06Z tonight. This translates into near normal temperatures, periods of light winds with low clouds and/or overnight fog, occasional opportunities for light precipitation (above average uncertainty on placement and timing), and periods of breezy conditions with cold frontal passages.
A weak cold front has moved south of Orlando/Titusville and will continue to trek southward eventually stalling near Lake Okeechobee this afternoon.
A short lived ridge of high pressure is building into the region today, this will allow for cloud cover to dissipate through the overnight. This should also translate to patchy freezing fog for some tomorrow morning.
The cloud cover adjustment has us going warmer than earlier forecasts for tonight, with clouds limiting our lows to the mid to upper teens northwest over the snow, to the mid 20s central and southeast, where there is no snow cover.
313 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 Cloudy skies will persist tonight in the moist flow behind low pressure. High pressure will then briefly build into the Ohio Valley for Saturday.
Slightly cooler conditions will be seen today and tomorrow compared to yesterday with highs this afternoon reaching into the middle to upper 70s for most, with a few 80s in SWFL.
Temperatures are also set to be a little warmer tonight when compared to last night with the increasing cloud cover playing a role.
1241 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 Low pressure across the eastern Great Lakes will move off the northern New England coast by tonight. High pressure will then briefly build into the Ohio Valley for Saturday.
(Rest of today through Saturday) A mid-level ridge is retreating eastward this afternoon and allowing a frontal boundary to sag through the Florida peninsula. This boundary is likely to stall over the northern portions of our CWA tonight which will lead to SW winds veering more westerly overnight and then Southeast again by Saturday as high pressure departs further east. Tonight, lows will be in the low-mid 60s. With increased cloud cover associated with the stalled front, high temperatures on Saturday will be a couple degrees cooler with mid 80s possible for interior areas and low 80s for coastal regions.
1158 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 A little less freezing drizzle and a few more flurries coming in from the obs, although there are still some spots with FZDZ hanging around. Getting reports of freezing drizzle again across the Red River Valley into portions of the Upper Devils Lake Basin.
Aside from the fog, only minor tweaks were made to the high temperatures to account for the colder temperatures observed in the Missouri and Milk River Valleys. -Enriquez PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Areas of dense freezing fog and low clouds cover parts of NE Montana early this morning. West and NW winds today will push the low clouds to the east. The system will bring a weak warm front through the area late tonight and Saturday morning which could bring a slight chance of light snow in the east.
Through Sat afternoon most impactful weather is the stratus and fog that should continue at least another day, due to stagnating conditions under high pressure and the lack of a clear breakout today. This low is expected to dig just south enough that the southwest corner of the forecast area will be under threat of some very windy conditions, mainly in the mountains of Cassia County, and possibly lower. Expect slightly warmer for Sat night with the cloud cover, then a strong drop for all but the southwest corner for Sun night, with even the Idaho Falls area now near or below zero.
206 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Main issues remain if we get another round of freezing drizzle tonight or flurries if anything. Wrapped up upper low continues to move through southern Manitoba towards Lake of the Woods. There is not much freezing drizzle left here in the Red River Valley, but still reporting some up in Winnipeg. Do not think we will completely clear out, but model soundings show some decrease in the low level saturated layer. Strong upper level ridging over the high plains will result in temperatures warming across the region through the weekend. A split flow regime remains in place with a deep upper level trof over the Four Corners region, and the northern stream remaining across the Canadian provinces.
1043 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 GOES-16 Water Vapor Satellite trends place an upper level trough over the Northeast United States with a second upper level trough over the Southwest U. CJC High pressure has settled into the region providing a lull in precipitation for the Mid-South until our next chance of rain Saturday afternoon as an occluding cold front moves across the region.
1158 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Sky cover is the main challenge for today with the low clouds eroding over the west from west to east, though some areas continue to linger, plus mid level clouds developing into the region from the west. Also put out a Special Weather Statement for this morning to highlight the lingering areas of low visibility and lingering freezing drizzle. For early morning update, have added the mention of patchy freezing drizzle throughout the area. Current surface analysis places generally high pressure stretching from the southern Canadian Prairies through the Great Plains, though a little low is noted sliding through the Dakotas, wrapping an area of low clouds and fog in behind it.
950 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Getting reports of freezing drizzle again across the Red River Valley into portions of the Upper Devils Lake Basin.
(This evening through Saturday) A mid-level trough will move eastward across the KS/OK border Saturday. At the surface, a cyclone is expected to deepen and move eastward across central Oklahoma. Precipitation is possible along the back side of this surface cyclone, where northerly winds and upper-level support will reside. Surface temperatures will stay above freezing, so chance of winter precipitation for the rest of the area is near zero with this system.
The forecast for the next seven days will hinge upon the mean layer and low level ridging. The mean layer ridge centered to our south will resist the mid-latitude incursions pivoting east through the Mississippi River Valley. The low level ridge will hang tough as well, with frontal boundaries scraping through Florida.
Calm conditions today as the ridge has settled in place. Northerly flow aloft has ushered in some colder temperatures with todays highs in the high 30s to low 40s across the entire region.
344 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 As low pressure continues to push east of our region tonight, surface and upper level ridging will begin to build into our area and remain for Saturday.
1142 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 (Rest of Today) Morning model guidance suggests that a deamplifying mid-level ridge over the eastern Great Plains this morning will shift into the Lower/Mid-MS Valley region over the course of the day, with weakly confluent flow aloft downstream from this feature maintaining dry conditions across the local forecast area. Periods of scattered-broken high-level cloud cover will spread across the region from the west as a shearing vort max lifts northeastward across the Rio Grande Valley, and this along with modest NW flow and cold advection in the low-levels will keep highs in the u40s-l50s.
(This evening through Saturday) An upper level low centered over northeastern Arizona early this afternoon will move to the east-northeast to northeastern New Mexico at midnight tonight and then along the Kansas-Oklahoma state line southwest of Wichita by the end of day Saturday. Behind the departing lift surface winds will veer to the west and northwest behind a Pacific cold front.
Also put out a Special Weather Statement for this morning to highlight the lingering areas of low visibility and lingering freezing drizzle. For early morning update, have added the mention of patchy freezing drizzle throughout the area. Current surface analysis places generally high pressure stretching from the southern Canadian Prairies through the Great Plains, though a little low is noted sliding through the Dakotas, wrapping an area of low clouds and fog in behind it.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) Temperatures are a fair bit warmer this afternoon compared to yesterday thanks to abundant sunshine and southerly winds. Western portions of the region can expect morning low temperatures below freezing, while areas further east fall into the 30s. With northwesterly winds across the region, temperatures are going to be cooler on Saturday. Most locations see low temperatures below freezing. Portions of the northern Permian Basin and higher terrain may even fall into the low 20s and upper teens.
1155 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 GOES-16 Water Vapor Satellite trends place an upper level trough over the Northeast United States with a second upper level trough over the Southwest U. CJC High pressure has settled into the region providing a lull in precipitation for the Mid-South until our next chance of rain Saturday afternoon as an occluding cold front moves across the region.
(Rest of Today) Morning model guidance suggests that a deamplifying mid-level ridge over the eastern Great Plains this morning will shift into the Lower/Mid-MS Valley region over the course of the day, with weakly confluent flow aloft downstream from this feature maintaining dry conditions across the local forecast area. Periods of scattered-broken high-level cloud cover will spread across the region from the west as a shearing vort max lifts northeastward across the Rio Grande Valley, and this along with modest NW flow and cold advection in the low-levels will keep highs in the u40s-l50s.