Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Afterwards, an incoming trough will bring an increase in winds and cool, dry weather to the area.
Unlike the past two days, a reverse cloud line has been struggling to mature today across portions of the Lower Keys.
307 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023 (This evening through Monday) Low temps in the mid 30s to low 40s were experienced almost everywhere in the CWA with some locations in the north Georgia mountains reaching down into the low 30s.
Winds will become more southeasterly tomorrow which should bump up high temperatures a few degrees warmer than what they are today.
221 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Western CONUS ridge will try to slowly push east the next couple days, supporting mild and dry fall weather. However, the Great Lakes closed blocking low will begin to retrograde, supporting weak re-enforcing troughs in NW flow, basically holding temps quite steady. Strong low pressure system will affect the region toward the middle of the week as a potent trough advects across the Rockies, bringing precip to the region mid week. Slightly cooler by Wed as clouds and precip spread toward the region with the initial round of theta-e adv. Forecast models are converging on a solution with the expected trough this week, supporting a decent chance of precip over the region, esp along and south of I90 where some models/ensembles are progging over 2 inches of qpf.
1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023 (Today through Monday night) The Panhandles will be on the eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge through this short-term period. This, combined with southwesterly 850mb winds which will advect in a layer of warm air aloft from the Desert Southwest, will bring warmer than average temperatures to the Panhandles.
But in the meantime, look for lows tonight in the lower 50s north to the mid to upper 50s south and central. Highs tomorrow should be a bit warmer than today with readings in the lower to mid 80s.
226 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Another pleasant, sunny fall day is ongoing across the area as a ridge axis passes over the state. On Monday the ridge will begin to flatten as a trough approaches from the west.
Moving into Monday the main forecast concern is precipitation chances associated with a retrograding low-pressure system to our northeast.
343 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Cold high pressure will build into the area through Monday. Temperatures will increase through mid-week as the high moves east off the coast. Settled within blocked flow over the northern latitudes, a deep upper low (1-2 STD below normal) north of the Great Lakes will relax a bit midweek, with dry westerly flow its southern periphery remaining across our region.
High pressure will keep the calm and clear conditions in place overnight allowing for good radiational cooling that will drop lows into the 40s. So we will be chilly again tonight/early tomorrow morning, but it will be a few degrees warmer than last night.
549 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023 (This evening through Monday) Temperatures have climbed into the lower 80s across much of West Central Texas this afternoon. Fairly weak mainly zonal flow aloft across the Plains for Monday, helping a weak lee trough at the surface develop. Highs will be a little warmer for the afternoon with temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 80s. Temperatures will be above normal midweek, and appreciably cooler by the end of the week.
1049 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Low pressure will remain to our north through Monday with mainly dry conditions persisting and near seasonable temperatures.
Another cold front will approach toward the end of the work week, bringing showers and slightly cooler temperatures. A few locales are running a little warmer than fcst/d across the Upstate, otherwise the fcst is in good shape. The latest consensus of hires guidance has come in a few degrees warmer with lows and have given this some weight in the temp fcst.
933 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Cool high pressure will build into the area through Monday. Temperatures will increase through mid-week as the high moves east off the coast. However, as the trough lifts away, those should dissipate over the next few hours, with clear skies for the rest of the night. Even still, continue to expect lows similar to the cooler statistical guidance, ranging from mid-30s in the usual cool outlying spots like TTA and TDF to lower-40s in the far south and east. Settled within blocked flow over the northern latitudes, a deep upper low (1-2 STD below normal) north of the Great Lakes will relax a bit midweek, with dry westerly flow its southern periphery remaining across our region.
Gusty winds, much cooler temperatures, and chances for showers are expected through midweek. The synoptic pattern remains progressive this week as a series of Pacific troughs propagate through the Sierra and western Nevada. Impacts from these trough passages include strong winds, much cooler weather and chances for light rainfall through the first half of the week. This low-level jet hangs around long enough to temporally overlap with peak daytime heating, yielding another afternoon of gusty winds of 25-35 mph in Sierra and western Nevada valleys.
Currently - A deep layered large cyclonic gyre spans eastern North America with an associated broad lower level trough digging southward into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Meanwhile, at the surface, an anticyclone is aligned along the gulf coast resulting in moderate to fresh northeasterly breezes across much of the southern and southeastern portion of the gulf. This along with potentially some lower level lift setting up within the broad synoptic scale trough should provide some lower level lift. Despite nearly zonal flow aloft, this lower level forcing justifies holding onto low chance pops. The belt of stronger winds within the southern periphery of this ridge may just brush into the deep gulf zones, where breezes may flirt with 10 to 15 knots.
High pressure centered over the Northwest Gulf will make a slow exit toward the east. Temps will be near normal, starting to trend warmer.
Upper level ridging persists across the region for another 24 hours before an upper level disturbance begins its approach Monday evening.
This all matters as guidance indicates surface ridging to build overnight, and with light winds, where sky is clear most of the night would anticipate frost development. Satellite looks clear over much of the high plains this afternoon, with clouds meandering west through Minnesota. As a quasi-ridge sets up over the central US, our days will be quiet and dry but temperatures will remain cool. Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s today as we advect a little bit warmer air into the area, and back into the 50s tomorrow.
The cold front has pushed south of the forecast area and has become stationary across south Florida. Much cooler drier air has advected across the forecast area in its wake. Synoptically, an upper low over the Great Lakes Region continues to spin and upper trough remains in place over Eastern US. The associated cold front is slowly moving southward across our region, currently located over the southern part of the state.
(This evening through Monday) Low temps in the mid 30s to low 40s were experienced almost everywhere in the CWA with some locations in the north Georgia mountains reaching down into the low 30s.
825 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Cool high pressure will build into the area through Monday. Temperatures will increase through mid-week as the high moves east off the coast. Settled within blocked flow over the northern latitudes, a deep upper low (1-2 STD below normal) north of the Great Lakes will relax a bit midweek, with dry westerly flow its southern periphery remaining across our region.
932 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Given current satellite imagery, the lower probability (<50%) for widespread frost coverage does not warrant frost advisory issuance. This all matters as guidance indicates surface ridging to build overnight, and with light winds, where sky is clear most of the night would anticipate frost development. Satellite looks clear over much of the high plains this afternoon, with clouds meandering west through Minnesota. As a quasi-ridge sets up over the central US, our days will be quiet and dry but temperatures will remain cool. Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s today as we advect a little bit warmer air into the area, and back into the 50s tomorrow.
641 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023 An anomalously deep longwave trough over eastern North America will support mostly northwest flow aloft over Mid-America the next few days.
615 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) The quiescent weather continues with upper-level ridging slowly building back into the region. Aided by southeasterly return flow and increasing heights, temperatures this afternoon will be nearly 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Most locations can expect temperatures in the lower 50s. Temperatures warm a few degrees as the ridge continues to slide east and thicknesses increase.
711 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Upper level ridging persists across the region for another 24 hours before an upper level disturbance begins its approach Monday evening.
A cold front will move into southeast Oregon mid to late afternoon and into the Treasure Valley late afternoon and early evening, and finally into the western Magic Valley by mid evening. Elsewhere, winds will increase as the cold front moves through, but not as strong with gusts 20-35 mph. Instability will also increase ahead of the front, just enough to support isolated thunderstorms, with the highest potential (15-20% chance) across the central Idaho mountains.
For tonight, mostly clear sky and light/calm winds (except continued breezy ridge tops/mountains) through midnight. Another jet streak will move across the lower Ohio valley producing pressure falls and strengthening the low-level jet over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys toward daybreak.
733 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Aviation Another marginal night for radiational cooling with some persistent winds and clouds in cyclonic flow on the periphery between the retrograding low across southeast Canada and surface ridging well off to the west over the Northern Plains. Flow goes west Monday night as the low retrogrades and deeper moisture will be aligned across the northern forecast area with some entrainment of drier air across the southern half of Lower Michigan leading to higher rain chances across the north. Monday night the upper low will be overhead which will essentially continue to be the case into mid week. The upper low though will be moving slightly off to the north and east with time, losing a bit of its influence on our area weather.
429 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Another pleasant, sunny fall day is ongoing across the area as a ridge axis passes over the state. On Monday the ridge will begin to flatten as a trough approaches from the west.
with the cooler temps behind the front and also with the normal cool spots over the CWA. (Tonight through Sunday) A weak cold front will continue to slide through the area Monday, stalling near the Red River for much of the afternoon hours Monday. As this cold front is very weak, it's only impacts will be some very minimal cooling and a shift in the wind direction to northerly.
523 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Western CONUS ridge will try to slowly push east the next couple days, supporting mild and dry fall weather. However, the Great Lakes closed blocking low will begin to retrograde, supporting weak re-enforcing troughs in NW flow, basically holding temps quite steady. Strong low pressure system will affect the region toward the middle of the week as a potent trough advects across the Rockies, bringing precip to the region mid week. Slightly cooler by Wed as clouds and precip spread toward the region with the initial round of theta-e adv. Forecast models are converging on a solution with the expected trough this week, supporting a decent chance of precip over the region, esp along and south of I90 where some models/ensembles are progging over 2 inches of qpf.
1029 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023 An expansive low pressure system over the Great Lakes region will continue to provide below normal temperatures through the first half of the workweek.
659 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023 (This evening through Monday) After a chilly start this morning, warmer temperatures have returned to the area this afternoon, with readings in the upper 70s and low 80s. Mid-level temps warm a bit further tomorrow which should allow for highs to push into the low to mid 80s (upper 80s across our Texas counties) by tomorrow afternoon.
747 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023 An expansive low pressure system over the Great Lakes region will continue to provide below normal temperatures through the first half of the workweek.
(Today and tonight) Slightly warmer again today with highs in the 80s, as weak zonal flow aloft and a weak lee-side trough are established across the area today.
1058 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023 (This evening through Monday) After a chilly start this morning, warmer temperatures have returned to the area this afternoon, with readings in the upper 70s and low 80s. Mid-level temps warm a bit further tomorrow which should allow for highs to push into the low to mid 80s (upper 80s across our Texas counties) by tomorrow afternoon.
319 AM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure currently across southern/southeast TX will begin to shift eastward across the northern GOMEX today. By Tuesday, the high center should be across far south GA/north FL.
1212 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) The quiescent weather continues with upper-level ridging slowly building back into the region. Aided by southeasterly return flow and increasing heights, temperatures this afternoon will be nearly 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
305 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023 Key Points: - Cooler day today before a warming trend during the early week.
A new dry cold front will drop south into the state late this afternoon. This will keep temps cooler and conditions drier across NRN/NERN sections. and warmer more moist air to the south/SW for Tue afternoon.
As a closed low deepens and moves into the PNW and the ridge overhead shifts further east, temperatures will warm again today under southwest flow aloft making today the warmest day of the week. High temperatures Tuesday will run approximately 10 degrees cooler as compared to Monday, returning to near normal. Winds will continue to increase over the next couple days as the low moves further inland, with gusts to around 30 mph in the high elevations of the central mountains and along the Montana Divide by Tuesday afternoon.
850 PM PDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Our persistent warm ridge over the past few days will give way to stronger westerly flow aloft, and a developing trough moving into the Rockies.
Another cold front will approach toward the end of the work week, bringing showers and slightly cooler temperatures. The latest consensus of hires guidance has come in a few degrees warmer with lows and have given this some weight in the temp fcst.
(Today) A weak cold front currently near the Kansas/Oklahoma border will continue to sag south across much of the area today before stalling out near the Red River this evening.
Slightly cooler today, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Drier, windier, and cooler conditions are then expected for the remainder of the week. As more westerly flow sets in ahead of an approaching trough, will push drier air into Arizona. This remnant mid-level moisture combined with daytime heating should allow for convective initiation over the higher terrain.
with the cooler temps behind the front and also with the normal cool spots over the CWA.
1207 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023 (This evening through Monday) Temperatures have climbed into the lower 80s across much of West Central Texas this afternoon. Fairly weak mainly zonal flow aloft across the Plains for Monday, helping a weak lee trough at the surface develop. Highs will be a little warmer for the afternoon with temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 80s.
(Today through Tuesday) Surface observations this morning show much warmer temperatures versus this time yesterday with current readings in the 40s to low 50s. Highs will also be much warmer today than yesterday thanks to gusty south winds, with highs in the mid 60s on the Plateau and low to mid 70s elsewhere. Tomorrow looks dry and even warmer than today as upper ridging begins to build northward from the Gulf Coast, with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Tonight we will continue to see the southwesterly flow with temperatures around 5 to 7 degrees warmer with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Temperatures will rise into the low 80s.
NW flow aloft will bring a weak cold front into the state sometime Monday evening before eventually stalling.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) A large upper trough over the Great Lakes keeps us under northwesterly flow aloft today, so dry conditions with clear skies and light winds should hold.
334 AM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023 Cool high pressure will continue to ridge in from the west through Tuesday.
Short wave energy spiraling around the upper low is bringing our area periodic cloudiness. That being considered, raised pops today with potential for up to a tenth of an inch of QPF west of the Blue Ridge.
202 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023 -There is a very high probability for freezing temperatures overnight tonight through Tuesday morning. If the low retrogrades further west, it is possible that areas in Lake of the Woods/Beltrami don't get to freezing. Regardless, expect at least frost Tuesday morning, with a very high chance (80%) of seeing freezing temperatures. The upper flow pattern will continue to be dominated by ridging to the west and the retrograding low.
(Today and tonight) Our streak of splendid fall weather continues underneath confluent upper flow downstream of a ridge along the Rockies. Up to 30 meters worth of 24-hour 500 mb height falls are forecast by this evening as the ridge flattens while moving over the region. Unfortunately, such paltry moisture throughout the column should keep all but a few high- based cumulus from developing this afternoon, mainly in our W-NW zones near a low-level thermal ridge/axis of deeper mixing. Elsewhere, a weak backdoor front will be found sagging into our northeastern counties later this morning before lee troughing in NM encourages light southerly breezes across the board for the remainder of the day.
The warmer lake will keep temperatures up in the mid to low 40s for lakeshore towns and will prevent frost from developing. A low pressure system south of James Bay will remain near stationary for the next couple of days. Clouds are expected to redevelop later this afternoon on the fringes of this low. Southern Wisconsin will remain fair enough outside of this influence of this low pressure system to remain dry into mid this week when the next system will approach the state.
North to northwesterly winds today behind this system will bring in slightly drier and cooler air during the day.
1029 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Another pleasant, sunny fall day is ongoing across the area as a ridge axis passes over the state. On Monday the ridge will begin to flatten as a trough approaches from the west. The main trough will begin to push in on Tuesday, bringing showers and cooler temperatures mainly across the west.
207 AM MDT Mon Oct 9 2023 Warm temperatures with mostly clear skies will persist today as the a powerful ridge axis shifts right over our region. By tonight, low pressure is expected to push onto the Pac NW coast, and then into the inter-mountain west on Tuesday. So while Tuesday will again see above normal temps in our area (mainly 70s), the upper ridge will be breaking down.
1150 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023 An anomalously deep longwave trough over eastern North America will support mostly northwest flow aloft over Mid-America the next few days.
Little to discuss in terms of sensible weather today and tonight as high pressure extends eastward and a very dry airmass settles over the region. Due to the high clouds, this mornings lows are likely to stay a few degrees above the daily records. However, lows will trend a few degrees warmer than this morning. Cool and dry conditions expected to continue but a temperatures will warm as high pressure overhead begins to lift towards the northeast through day and into the night. An area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will be begin to move towards the east/northeast.
The classic cyclonic flow around the low pressure has brought widespread mid clouds to nearly our entire CWA as well as SE MN, and SW WI through 2 AM. Key Messages: Areas of frost/freezing are possible north Tuesday night. Meanwhile, southern areas will see a developing warm front set up just to the south, and moisture is forecast to quickly over run that front, resulting in showers breaking out in the early morning hours.
The frontal boundary that passed through our area remains stalled over South Florida, with a cooler and dry airmass in place at the surface across West Central and SWFL. Not unlike yesterday, the combination of mid and high level clouds and light northerly flow should keep temps capped to the low-to-mid 80s, with SWFL seeing the highest temps. As the upper-level trough starts to lift back north late tomorrow and into Tuesday, the low-level flow veers more easterly. The atmosphere will moderate in response, leading to a warmer and more humid pattern returning by mid-week.
355 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023 Key Points: - Strong low pressure system approaches mid to late week, bringing gusty winds and multiple shower/thunderstorm chances.
129 AM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023 An expansive low pressure system over the Great Lakes region will continue to provide below normal temperatures through the first half of the workweek.
1014 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Western CONUS ridge will try to slowly push east the next couple days, supporting mild and dry fall weather. However, the Great Lakes closed blocking low will begin to retrograde, supporting weak re-enforcing troughs in NW flow, basically holding temps quite steady. Strong low pressure system will affect the region toward the middle of the week as a potent trough advects across the Rockies, bringing precip to the region mid week. Slightly cooler by Wed as clouds and precip spread toward the region with the initial round of theta-e adv. Forecast models are converging on a solution with the expected trough this week, supporting a decent chance of precip over the region, esp along and south of I90 where some models/ensembles are progging over 2 inches of qpf.
Subsidence associated with the influence of the high combined with only very shallow moisture around 850 millibars, per HI-Res BUFKIT soundings, will allow for mostly sunny skies today and mostly clear skies tonight. as the upper levels rearrange from gradient flow under the southwestern portion of a very broad cut-off trough to a more zonal pattern ahead of the next broad trough plunging through the western third of the CONUS.
This will allow for warmer conditions across the forecast area today, as highs under sunny skies range from the upper 70s to middle 80s. Then for tonight, lows will likewise be a little warmer as they fall into the low and middle 50s. Global guidance highlight northwest flow around an upper-level low low pressure system reinforcing dry-off shore flow near the Gulf Coast.
A ridge of high pressure at the surface will be centered over the region today. Temperatures at 925/850mb are a tad cooler compared to yesterday, so expecting highs to be a bit cooler as well. With the high remaining in place tonight providing for light winds and clear skies, expecting another chilly night with lows in the 30s. The somewhat narrow ridge axis shifts east into MN on Tuesday, but still close enough to bring rather light winds to the eastern CWA. Central SD will start to see breezy east-southeast winds during the afternoon as the pressure gradient begins to tighten in response to low pressure forming over the Rockies.
High pressure will bring another warm day to the Northern Rockies. High temperatures in the lower valleys across western Montana and north central ID will reach 80 degrees today. Southwest breezes will develop during the afternoon ahead of an approaching Pacific Cold Front.