Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the surface, the MSLP pattern is similarly ill- defined, with a weak lee trough in eastern CO supporting 10-20 mph upslope southeasterly winds. Short range guidance/HREF both suggest the aforementioned weak upslope flow will allow for at least some moisture advection, and eventually support afternoon thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of southeast CO and adjacent northeast NM. Regardless, overcast skies will be maintained as a result of the MCV, leading to a slightly cooler afternoon Monday with highs in the low 70s. An overall increase in cloud cover into Monday is shown in the HREF fields, and with potential earlier day wet grounds, and residual cloud cover the low 70s may be the limit for afternoon highs.
136 PM MDT Sun May 21 2023 Western CONUS ridge will slowly push east this week as active SW flow ensues later in the week. Upper ridge will shift east by Tues with semi-unsettled SW flow setting up.
A weak trough across the northern Gulf will slowly drift eastward through the week resulting additional moisture and instability across the forecast area. Temperatures in our area for this upcoming week are going to run a few degrees lower, daytime highs are forecast to range from the mid to upper 80s with some locations southeast of Tampa Bay reaching the lower 90s.
Latest surface analysis shows expansive 1023mb high pressure centered over MO/IL with current satellite revealing mostly clear skies across the region. Current Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery shows valley fog across the higher terrain of eastern KY but some valley fog has been seen developing across parts of southern IN into SW Ohio. Upper ridge axis that is influencing the western two-thirds of the CONUS will slowly shift eastward during the day and gradually increase heights over southern IN and central KY. This will lead to warmer temperatures in the mid 70s for the afternoon. Benign weather is expected for the work week as an upper level ridge of high pressure maintains control over the region, which will allow for dry and warm weather.
408 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 Mostly dry weather and seasonable temperature can be expected early this week under high pressure.
155 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure to start the work week.
146 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 Mostly dry weather and seasonable temperature can be expected early this week under high pressure.
Dewpoints are slightly lower today, but it will still be a warm afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 80s. High pressure will build over the Northeast region and extend down the spine of the Appalachians encouraging another wedge front to move into our northeastern counties tomorrow afternoon. This will result in low/mid 70s in the east while areas in the west are forecast to reach the lower 80s.
239 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 (Issued 239 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023) Tonight through Monday night: Continued pleasant conditions this afternoon will give way to mild overnight lows in the low 50s tonight. Light winds and warm temperatures continue on Monday, with highs for inland locations reaching the upper 70s to near 80, with locations near the lake topping out in the low 70s.
Meanwhile, afternoon convection initiation has occurred along the higher terrain in central Montana. From Monday, the ridge that will push most areas in the CWA close to 90 degree high temperatures will begin to flatten out ahead of a trough moving into the Interior Northwest.
1211 PM PDT Sun May 21 2023 An incoming trough will lead to increased shower and thunderstorm coverage across the Sierra and western Nevada this afternoon. The trough will break down the persistent high pressure over the western US and kick off a gradual cooling trend through the end of the work week. The potential for unsettled, cooler weather will persist into the holiday weekend.
239 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure builds over the region through this evening leading to quiet weather through the much of this upcoming week. High pressure continues to build over the region with deep subsidence evidence on the WV satellite this afternoon. Fair weather continues for Monday as high pressure sits over the region. There is a small chance (15%) for showers over the Poconos Monday afternoon as a cold front moves south.
light winds and low humidities with temperatures as of 18Z in the low to mid 70s. Broad high pressure centered just west of the region is largely responsible for the wonderful weather we are enjoying today. The high will drift east slowly over the next 24 hours and remain the primary influence through Monday. it will likely reside from the east and northeast with the expected location of the center of the high. Low level thermals are a bit warmer for Monday and surface temperatures should respond in kind with similar conditions to today. Expect northwest flow aloft with upper ridging across the western half of the CONUS gradually shifting eastward.
Quiet weather is in the forecast for today as drier air continues to settle across most of the southeast United States as the cold front continues to move further east across parts of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. This cloud cover combined with limited insolation should help limit afternoon temperatures into the low 80s across most of our forecast area. Skies will generally be mostly cloudy through the day, with highs mostly in the low to mid 80s. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will continue tonight with lows in the low to mid 60s.
947 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure building into the area today will be the dominate weather feature through mid-week bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
646 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure maintains dry air throughout the area. For tonight models show a very weak, dampened mid to upper level trough squeezing across the Great Lakes. No tangible geostrophic or gradient flow with the feature which allows a surface convergence to thermal trough set up directly over Southeast Michigan. The thermal trough will modestly increase in strength on Monday with daytime heating.
812 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 A backdoor cold front works south across New England late tonight and across the area Monday morning. The front likely stalls across the Lower Hudson Valley.
528 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows flat ridging over the Gulf of Mexico, with a weak midlevel low over TX and weak disturbances emanating from the low along the northern edge of the high. At the surface, a frontal boundary is positioned well off the coast, with north to northeast winds over the region transporting slightly drier and cooler low level air into the area. Temperatures as of 3 PM range from the middle 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, a pleasant change from the recent warm and humid conditions.
658 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 (Tonight) High pressure is entrenched across the Tennessee Valley northward into the Ohio Valley. Expect warmer low temperatures as thicker cloud cover develops earlier there than further north tonight.
803 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 A cold front will settle south of the area today. High pressure will extend into the area from the north and northeast through much of the work week. A cold front has made its way through much of the forecast area, and it is possibly still hung up along the southern border. High pressure will be centered over Quebec Monday morning, with a weak surface front over New York dissipating during the day. Overnight lows will be a couple degrees warmer than tonight, but still generally in the 50s.
Evening water vapor/synoptic analysis indicates upper low spinning just to the west & progged to drift to the east through the overnight hours. Some clouds will persist overnight, with lows near climo in the low-mid 60s. This should allow for overnight lows to dip into the low 60s.
An upper level ridge across the Northern Rockies continues to bring subtle northwest flow into the Northern Plains. Smoke will likely impact the temperature forecast as temperatures struggle to reach the lower 80s this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower to mid 80s across the state. As a low level thermal ridge extends up through eastern Montana. An upper level ridge is forecast to move across the Northern Plains the beginning half of this week bringing forth warmer temperatures. A ridging pattern will bring in a low level thermal ridge across the Northern and Central Plains.
700 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 (This evening through Monday Night) Weak upper ridging over the region will continue to break down this evening, as a weak upper trough and a weak disturbance moves across the area. Clouds will start to clear from west to east behind the trough on Monday, as it shifts into the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS. Afternoon temperatures will climb to near normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
19Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over the Ohio Valley and reaching into Kentucky from the north. Specifically, temperatures are generally running in the low 70s most places with dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s, amid mostly light northeast winds. They all depict heights steadying out over Kentucky between troughing retreating to the northeast and dirty ridging through the Plains.
801 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure to start the work week.
553 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 Mostly dry weather and seasonable temperature can be expected early this week under high pressure.
732 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure building into the area today will be the dominate weather feature through mid-week bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
GOES-16 Satellite analysis indicates some high-based clouds moving across the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening and resulting in mostly cloudy to cloudy skies.
454 PM MDT Sun May 21 2023 Western CONUS ridge will slowly push east this week as active SW flow ensues later in the week. Upper ridge will shift east by Tues with semi-unsettled SW flow setting up.
With the ridging in place, winds will remain calm/variable through tomorrow morning. Halbach (Issued 239 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023) Tonight through Monday night: Continued pleasant conditions this afternoon will give way to mild overnight lows in the low 50s tonight. Light winds and warm temperatures continue on Monday, with highs for inland locations reaching the upper 70s to near 80, with locations near the lake topping out in the low 70s.
1016 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the upcoming week.
640 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure building into the area today will be the dominate weather feature through mid-week bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
508 PM PDT Sun May 21 2023 Warm temperatures continue for the interior valleys today and Monday with breezy westerly winds keeping coastal areas cooler.
The weather will settle down for the work week with significantly cooler temperatures and far less moisture.
1018 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure building into the area will be the dominate weather feature through mid-week bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
933 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 Broad surface ridging is centered over the Lower Ohio River Valley but extends southwest across the forecast area and into Texas. The cloud cover should gradually scatter and begin to clear from southwest to northeast as the trough departs farther to the east. CN (This evening through Monday Night) Weak upper ridging over the region will continue to break down this evening, as a weak upper trough and a weak disturbance moves across the area. Clouds will start to clear from west to east behind the trough on Monday, as it shifts into the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS. Afternoon temperatures will climb to near normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Mid and upper level ridging reaches northeastward from Central America to Florida. The combination of the upper ridge and the deep gyre off to our east has supported quite a bit of dry layer aloft. Overnight lows will range in the upper 70s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s.
733 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 19Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over the Ohio Valley and reaching into Kentucky from the north. Specifically, temperatures are generally running in the low 70s most places with dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s, amid mostly light northeast winds. They all depict heights steadying out over Kentucky between troughing retreating to the northeast and dirty ridging through the Plains.
642 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 (This evening through Monday) Weak upper level low pressure still spinning slowly as it moves slowly eastward across the Concho Valley. Otherwise, warmer on Monday with the sunshine in place allowing highs to climb into the mid and upper 80s.
An upper low along the Canadian border and the Idaho panhandle will set up another day of precipitation. It will be much cooler today.
326 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure will dominate the weather in the Ohio Valley for the next several days.
415 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 A backdoor cold front moves across the area this morning, then stalls in the lower Hudson Valley to western Long Island before dissipating this evening. High pressure will be in control tonight through Tuesday night.
1242 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure will build in from the north overnight and be centered over the area today through Tuesday.
1224 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 Mostly dry weather and seasonable temperature can be expected early this week under high pressure.
1025 PM MDT Sun May 21 2023 Western CONUS ridge will slowly push east this week as active SW flow ensues later in the week. Upper ridge will shift east by Tues with semi-unsettled SW flow setting up.
Inland portions of northern IL will have temperatures topping out around 80 degrees this afternoon, through a breeze moving inland across far northeastern IL will keep temperatures cooler along the lakeshore. Aside from some higher level cloudiness moving overhead tonight, the weather remains quiet with overnight lows falling off into the lower 50s (possibly upper 40s in typical cool spots). In spite of this temperatures will continue to be on an uptick, with inland highs near 80 again on Monday, and likely into the low to mid 80s for Tuesday. This will promote afternoon lake breezes both days, so the typically cooler by the lake theme will continue. KJB The main weather story during the period will be the turn towards at least a few days of cooler weather for the second half of the week.
134 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 Dry, seasonable conditions will continue under high pressure for a large portion of the forecast period.
Residual but shallow moisture, the close proximity of the boundary, daytime heating and potential for convergence along a sea breeze may all add up to fire off an isolated or a few brief showers across the Lower RGV and across the coastal waters today. Otherwise, a weak mid-level zonal flow today and a building 500mb ridge Tuesday to provide general partly cloudy, dry and seasonably warm conditions. Weak pressure gradient provides light east to southeast winds while the building ridge inches high temperatures up today and Tuesday into the upper 80s to lower-mid 90s.
(Today through Tuesday Night ) Cloud cover overnight has kept temps a few deg warmer than seen yesterday morning.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Short term forecast remains rather quiet with briefly zonal mid- level flow today before ridging builds tomorrow. As the ridge builds tomorrow, deep layer moisture will decrease and will see mainly sunny skies.
Discussion: RAP smoke continues to show high concentrations of smoke aloft throughout the day today, with some breakage being picked up in parts of Canada as a cold front starts to swing southward toward our area for Tuesday. Typically with the smoke aloft, we can see slightly cooler temperatures so the possibility is out there that some areas may just stay in the upper 70s for highs today. We can expect the mid 80s on Tuesday ahead of a cold front that approaches by the afternoon from the north. As the cold front shifts south it encounters warm air advection through the 700mb level, moisture advection from the south, and slight instability.
Otherwise, warmer temperatures are expected today, with afternoon highs stretching into the mid to upper 80s, and overnight lows only dropping into the lower to mid 60s.
331 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure will be in control of area weather during the short term and beyond based on the latest model data. With high pressure in charge, we can still expect above normal daytime highs today and tomorrow. There will be some ridge valley temperature differences this morning and tonight, but nothing overly pronounced. High pressure will be in place for the vast majority of the forecast period. Under the regime of high pressure, dry weather and sunny skies are expected with generally light northerly winds.
1242 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023 Evening water vapor/synoptic analysis indicates upper low spinning just to the west & progged to drift to the east through the overnight hours. Some clouds will persist overnight, with lows near climo in the low-mid 60s. This should allow for overnight lows to dip into the low 60s.
Otherwise, for tonight, expect the low level moisture transport in the TX panhandle to once again focus over SW KS, with renewed showers/storm chances SW of the forecast area. Mesoscale processes and features, will continue to be the story for Tue/Wed, with most of the better low level moisture transport staying over the high plains and SW KS. Both the GFS/ECMWF suggest that weak upper ridging will remain across the plains for late in the week, as an "omega block" type pattern sets up, with a weak upper low over the SE US and another over the Rockies, with weak ridging in between.
(Monday through Tuesday) Very weak upper trough is currently moving ovhd attm and it will be taking the mid and high level cloud cover with it.
344 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure building into the area will be the dominate weather feature through mid-week bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
102 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 Canadian high pressure will build southward down the East Coast through Tuesday, resulting in mainly quiet weather.
2 inch PWAT values will shift eastward along with the low level/850 mb layer moisture an theta-e transport during the day, following the track of the upper 500 mb low into the afternoon over the heart of the DDC forecast area. Temperatures will be limited this afternoon as the upper low moves across and maintains plenty of cloud cover. The widespread low 70s maximum Temp forecast might get negatively adjusted as areas of clouds and showers through the day limit temps the mid upper 60 - little warmer than it is approaching midnight.
350 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 A cold front will settle southward today, with few showers and isolated thunderstorms possible south of Interstate 90 this afternoon and evening. High pressure will then build across the region tonight into Tuesday.
Weather will be fair with temperatures a touch warmer than yesterday climbing into the upper 70s/low 80s for the afternoon with winds out of the east-northeast. High pressure continues its influence overnight with just a few high clouds over the area and lows a little warmer in the mid/upper 50s. An Omega-Block pattern looks to setup across North America by early/mid week as upper level ridging amplifies across the central CONUS and troughing remains persistent along the western/eastern coasts.
An upper level ridge across the Northern Rockies continues to bring subtle northwest flow into the Northern Plains. Smoke will likely impact the temperature forecast as temperatures struggle to reach the lower 80s this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower to mid 80s across the state. As a low level thermal ridge extends up through eastern Montana. An upper level ridge is forecast to move across the Northern Plains the beginning half of this week bringing forth warmer temperatures. A ridging pattern will bring in a low level thermal ridge across the Northern and Central Plains. A wave and a warm front will move across the northwest resulting in thunderstorms and showers in the afternoon. Troughing will continue to dig across Western CONUS bring in southwesterly flow aloft.
The smoke has probably only had a slight cooling effect on temps as readings to the south have still reached into the lower 70s. The bigger impact on temps has been a cold front which has pushed slowly southward through the fcst area today. Under partly cloudy skies, expect min temps mostly in the lower to mid 40s.
306 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023 All is quiet in the neighborhood tonight, as high pressure covers the region, and skies are only dealing with thin cirrus. Temperatures as of 2 AM are mainly in the lower to mid 50s. Our stretch of high pressure days with very slow moderation of temperatures remains in place. Return flow and very deep mixing profiles on(possibly up to H8 MB) will make for a warming day up into the low to mid 80s for much of the area.
1138 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 Broad surface ridging is centered over the Lower Ohio River Valley but extends southwest across the forecast area and into Texas. The cloud cover should gradually scatter and begin to clear from southwest to northeast as the trough departs farther to the east. CN (This evening through Monday Night) Weak upper ridging over the region will continue to break down this evening, as a weak upper trough and a weak disturbance moves across the area. Clouds will start to clear from west to east behind the trough on Monday, as it shifts into the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS. Afternoon temperatures will climb to near normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
1232 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023 (This evening through Monday) Weak upper level low pressure still spinning slowly as it moves slowly eastward across the Concho Valley. Otherwise, warmer on Monday with the sunshine in place allowing highs to climb into the mid and upper 80s.
At the same time an upper level low and trough will dig southward through the Mississippi River Valley. Any delay in the precipitation trends may cause temperatures to be slightly cooler in the north.
153 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 A backdoor cold front works south across New England late tonight and across the area Monday morning. The front likely stalls across the Lower Hudson Valley. High pressure will be in control Monday night into Tuesday.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Light precipitation from dissipating thunderstorms continues to dwindle across the high desert this evening. Only significant change to the forecast tonight was to increase coverage of thunderstorm chances tomorrow afternoon, as it looks like the Riverside/San Bernardino Mountains and the high desert will see isolated to scattered storms again. Beyond Monday, flow regime switches to westerly as a baggy broad trough develops over the West Coast.
314 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure builds in from the north today in the wake of a cold front, setting up another dry period of weather early this week with seasonable high temperatures and cool overnight lows.
1242 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the upcoming week.
124 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure building into the area will be the dominate weather feature through mid-week bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
1137 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 A weak upper-level trough over the southern Plains today will slowly move east to Alabama by Tuesday, resulting in very weak flow aloft over the Quad State. At the surface, high pressure will keep a loose grip on the region through the period. Ran with the ConsMOS guidance for lows tonight and Monday night to indicate slightly cooler readings in the north where winds will be calm. We should reach normal levels Monday and climb above normal into the lower and middle 80s on Tuesday.