Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1030 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2023 The cold front under the leading edge of this passing trough went through late last evening with wind gusts 45 to 55 mph in eastern Utah along with some isolated lightning. Then we should start a more prolonged break from the precipitation on Thursday as a stronger ridge builds in to end out the week.
If any precipitation reaches the ground, most if not all guidance indicates that it will be warm enough in the lower levels and the sfc by the time it gets here to support just sprinkles/light rain.
Warm, dry and windy conditions will make way for cool, dry, and windy conditions with the passing of a cold front South to southwest winds have started to increase across the area this afternoon with 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph expected through tonight. The strongest winds are expected across the Big Country and western Concho Valley late this afternoon and through the tonight period ahead of the cold front. This cold front will track through West Central Texas and bring cooler and continually windy conditions (mainly north of I-10 tonight) and into Thursday.
High pressure ridge will be overhead this morning, then shift more to the east southeast this afternoon. As the ridge moves more to the southeast, clouds will begin to move into area from the northwest ahead of approaching system. Otherwise, it will be a dry day with highs away from the coast climbing into the lower 70s.
Mountains will see lingering mid-level cloud cover through the day which will be topped with increasing high clouds as a warm front approaches the area. Have extended the Dense Fog Advisory through noon MST across the lower Snake Plain and Weiser Basin, otherwise no update to the forecast.
At the surface, low pressure will track rapidly from north-central OK this evening to the mid-Mississippi Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will sweep across the region after midnight and should clear the region by Thursday morning. Rapid pressure rises behind the cold front and the resulting isallobaric forcing will result in a fairly narrow window for strong winds/gusts after midnight and into early Thursday. Points east of here still could see gusts near advisory criteria into the morning on Thursday, especially in the higher terrain, but the potential for most areas appears too marginal to issue an advisory there for now.
-Slight changes have been made with this package to the location of the higher QPF and snow totals. With this forecast package, there has been a slight southward shift in the higher QPF and associated snowfall accumulations with the better frontogenetical forcing now looking to occur near and south of Interstate 35 late tonight. Thus, the highest totals are expected to range from 0.
1228 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 A warm front pushes north across the central Appalachians this evening, moving north overnight.
1143 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 (Today and tonight) A deepening mid-level trough is expected to move across the southern Rockies later this morning. A strong mid-level jet on the southern periphery of the aforementioned trough will move across much of the Southern Plains by the afternoon.
Post-cold frontal air mass filters into the area today through tonight behind this morning's mid level wave and cold front. Upper troughing departs as upper ridging starts to build into the area Thursday allowing a seasonably cool air mass to continue its spread over the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota. A breeze out of the northwest along with these temps will make it feel relatively cooler compared to recent days. Surface ridging will settle into the area Thursday into Thursday night.
We'll continue to watch for pockets of deeper moisture that could result in flurries or potentially brief freezing drizzle later this afternoon. While high pressure will be nearing from the northwest, it will result in a tightening pressure gradient over far eastern SD and western MN, as an area of low pressure exits CO and moves across MO later tonight.
Upper level ridging translates from west to east across the CONUS this weekend. This will be downstream of the next significant long wave trough moving onto the west coast. A mild weekend is expected beneath the ridging.
109 PM MST Wed Jan 11 2023 20z surface analysis had backdoor cold front sliding through northwest SD.
Light snow potential behind the low late tonight into Thursday. Windy conditions behind the low late tonight into Thursday.
Colder cloud tops associated with the wrap around moisture with this low. Upper ridge builds into the area overnight as 700mb low tracks east into central Kansas and north central Oklahoma. Northwest flow over the CWA through Thursday afternoon before ridge axis moves into the area. 850mb gradients in the mid and upper 50s and 700mb gradients in the low 40 mtr range.
These winds will gradually back off this evening as high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure builds in Thursday with the high pressure ridge expected over the Wyoming border by early Thursday evening with southerly flow setting up over the area.
926 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2023 All model indications which yesterday correctly predicted the current dense freezing fog, now indicate that the fog will barely lift today, if at all, then easily re-form again by this evening. ---BMickelson Previous discussion: Dense freezing fog has overspread a large portion of NE Montana overnight as low level moisture has become trapped under a low level inversion. Upper ridge builds into the area starting on Thursday.
At the surface, lee cyclone has developed in SW KS. This evening, guidance continues to point to a brief period of gusts to around 60 mph following the arrival of a cold front, which seems plausible given wind speeds aloft and progged rapid surface pressure rises.
A brief period of weak ridging moves in this evening ahead of the strong upper closed low that will bring chances for strong to severe thunderstorms starting just before sunrise in the northwest and continuing east through the day. The cold front associated with the upper low should be through the area just after sunset, so the severe threat should diminish shortly after sunset. The focus for snow will be on the Plateau and at higher elevations where orographic effects will help the northwest flow squeeze out a bit more moisture as the upper low sits to our north.
A very quiet weather day across our area with high pressure overhead with nearly calm winds. A strong cold front will start to head our way on Thursday that will push the high pressure out to the Atlantic and bring us a few extra clouds and slightly warmer temperatures.
125 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 Light rain is probable overnight into early Thursday morning with light snow or freezing rain potentially resulting in a few slick spots at higher elevations.
Temperatures Tonight will have an unusual gradient, with readings warmer across SE GA due to warm advection ahead of front.
which is where we will feature the highest POPs. With the temperature above freezing for most of the event. This is when the surface temperatures fall to below freezing and the DGZ is only marginally saturated. Thus a small window of possible freezing precipitation may exist.
Tricky forecast with partial clearing in the low stratus deck, with clouds moving back into these areas or redeveloping. Current surface analysis places high pressure settling from the Canadian prairies into the northern plains, with low over the southern portion of the Colorado/Kansas border. On Thursday, morning fog will be the main concern, but another item of interest will be temperatures with the cool high pressure settling through. The exception will be the far southwest nudging into the far west-central as southerly flow develops on the back side of the high, resulting in warming temperatures. Warming temperatures and quiet weather is expected going into the weekend as upper ridge gradually works its way to the east.
Radar and satellite show a beautiful presentation of the surface cyclone over the CO/KS border vicinity Sheridan Lake at 2 pm. Winds over the plains continued to be quite gusty with winds generally in the 40 to 50 mph range on the backside of the low. Ridge builds aloft, and expect generally clear skies (with increasing high clouds late in the day over the mtns).
Temperatures are several degrees warmer than initially forecast, which seems to be a common theme on these warm days so far this winter. Weak low pressure system passes through the southeast late tonight and into tomorrow. While near surface profiles are near/below freezing, this layer is mainly confined to the lowest 5000 ft, with weak lift. Tomorrow, we will be in a purely post-frontal airmass as high pressure approaches the area. This weekend is geared to be quite pleasant, as a deep upper ridge passes through the region and return flow kicks in.
A few lingering snow showers mixed with some freezing drizzle are moving across far east central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin.
Long wave trough is set up over the Pacific with a short wave tracking north towards BC. The warm front will lift north tonight and showers will diminish from south to north but will linger over the Coastal Range and northern Sacramento Valley into Thursday. The next incoming trough will then take its time arriving as it digs offshore stalling a cold front over northwest California.
406 PM MST Wed Jan 11 2023 20z surface analysis had backdoor cold front sliding through northwest SD.
526 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 Low pressure tracking from the Ozarks into the Ohio River Valley will bring a period of light rain to much of central Illinois late tonight into Thursday morning.
240 PM MST Wed Jan 11 2023 Satellite imagery this afternoon an upper trough moving across Colorado into the plains while an upper ridge axis prevailed over the northern Rockies. Fog conditions have improved a bit over east central Montana, but pockets of low clouds and fog still lingered thanks to the cold air advection of this mornings backdoor cold front. Slick roads, sidewalks and especially bridges are possible as temps will be well below freezing. As high pressure sets up over SE Idaho, a pressure gradient looks to form over south-central MT in a favorable position for gap winds at Livingston and Nye.
Afternoon highs will approach record warmth in many areas, as temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s across the area, with a few locations in the lower 80s. A closed trough will move out of the Rockies into the Central Plains this evening, dragging an associated cold front with it. Behind the boundary, expect gusty northwest winds and a much cooler airmass.
The mostly sunny skies will bring warmer temperatures, but weak winds will limit mixing and likely result in an inversion across the plains which should limit the warming. Highs are expect to range from the mid 40s along the base of the foothills to the lower 30s over the far northeast plains.
321 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 Low pressure tracking from the Ozarks into the Ohio River Valley will bring a period of light rain to much of central Illinois late tonight into Thursday morning.
Low pressure is currently moving across the Central Plains, and the trailing cold front is moving across east Texas.
Snow will slowly diminish this evening across the high country with snow showers continuing overnight over the Elkhead and Park mountains before ending Thursday morning. A ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin region will bring dry and near seasonable temperatures to the region tomorrow and tomorrow night.
844 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 Low pressure tracking from the Ozarks into the Ohio River Valley will bring a period of light rain to much of central Illinois late tonight into Thursday morning.
The cold front has crossed the I-27/HWY-87 corridors as of 1838Z, as surface winds have veered westward while also accelerating as vertical mixing depths increase beneath a 700 mb jet streak approaching 50 kt. The High Wind Warning, Wind Advisory, and Red Flag Warning, remain in effect until 12/02Z (8 PM CST) tonight. Overnight, a secondary cold front will cross through the region from the north as the 500 mb closed cyclone and its attendant surface cyclone propagate eastward into the Ozark Plateau. Cooler weather is in store for tomorrow as the mean flow aloft transitions to the northwest from the amplifying mid/upper-level ridge over the western U.
Beginning Thursday afternoon, decent heating under a strong building ridge of high pressure from the west, should erode away the inversion and keep further chances for fog away for several days.
719 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 Light rain is probable overnight into early Thursday morning with light snow or freezing rain potentially resulting in a few slick spots at higher elevations.
A very quiet day in the Gulf with high pressure right overhead resulting in nearly calm winds. Winds will start to shift to the south and southwest throughout the day on Thursday in response to cold front heading our way.
318 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 Current surface analysis places high pressure settling from the Canadian prairies into the northern plains, with low over the southern portion of the Colorado/Kansas border. On Thursday, morning fog will be the main concern, but another item of interest will be temperatures with the cool high pressure settling through. The exception will be the far southwest nudging into the far west-central as southerly flow develops on the back side of the high, resulting in warming temperatures. Warming temperatures and quiet weather is expected going into the weekend as upper ridge gradually works its way to the east.
914 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 Light rain is probable overnight into early Thursday morning with light snow or freezing rain potentially resulting in a few slick spots at higher elevations.
Winds across the southeast plains will remain windy but the high wind gusts have diminished. Plan to let the high wind warning expire at 6 PM. Radar and satellite show a beautiful presentation of the surface cyclone over the CO/KS border vicinity Sheridan Lake at 2 pm. Winds over the plains continued to be quite gusty with winds generally in the 40 to 50 mph range on the backside of the low. Ridge builds aloft, and expect generally clear skies (with increasing high clouds late in the day over the mtns).
500 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 Key Messages: - Seasonal temperatures for the rest of the week with highs in the 20s and 30s--warmer weather for the weekend.
550 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 Low pressure is currently moving across the Central Plains, and the trailing cold front is moving across east Texas.
However, the not exactly cold waters of our shallow gulf and bay side waters (lower 70s) are still cooler than the gulf stream and played a hand in keeping winds backed northeasterly. A ridge stretching west southwestward across Central Florida will maintain light breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period. Winds will tend backed and weaker on our cooler gulf and bay side waters due to the weakness of the flow and some decoupling.
The mostly sunny skies will bring warmer temperatures, but weak winds will limit mixing and likely result in an inversion across the plains which should limit the warming. Highs are expect to range from the mid 40s along the base of the foothills to the lower 30s over the far northeast plains. For Thursday night and Friday, high pressure ridging aloft builds across the region as the moderate northwest flow relaxes and shifts more westerly.
1050 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 Key Messages: - Seasonal temperatures for the rest of the week with highs in the 20s and 30s--warmer weather for the weekend.
Elsewhere, occasional snow showers will continue through 07Z-08Z per the high-res models. Colder cloud tops associated with the wrap around moisture with this low. Upper ridge builds into the area overnight as 700mb low tracks east into central Kansas and north central Oklahoma. Northwest flow over the CWA through Thursday afternoon before ridge axis moves into the area. 850mb gradients in the mid and upper 50s and 700mb gradients in the low 40 mtr range. Warmer Friday as GFS 700mb temperatures climb to +3C as ridge axis over the area.
These breezy and dry conditions will continue to move across south central Texas through the morning with cooler air not far behind. High temperatures this afternoon with be notably warmer than those seen yesterday, in the 60s for areas north of I-10 and the low 70s in the south. Gusts up to 35 mph are expected over the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains, with locally higher gusts to 40 mph possible in the higher terrain of the Hill Country. The combination of wind and drier air will bring some areas of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions, especially in the west where the lowest humidity is expected. Freezing temperatures are possible over Valley locations of the Hill Country by sunrise.
Cold air advection will continue into Friday morning with lows towards the coast in the lower 40s under clear skies. Friday afternoon temperatures are expected to be around 20 degrees cooler than today's temperatures.
Looking like another pleasant day across the area as high pressure holds on with sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the 70s to around 80 degrees. Late tonight and Friday morning a strong cold front will move across the region preceded and accompanied by showers and a few thunderstorms.
1018 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 Update Low pressure is pushing a cold front across the cwa at this time. which is where we will feature the highest POPs. With the temperature above freezing for most of the event. This is when the surface temperatures fall to below freezing and the DGZ is only marginally saturated. Thus a small window of possible freezing precipitation may exist.
1247 AM MST Thu Jan 12 2023 Current surface map places backdoor cold front across eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Upper ridge builds across the Northern Plains later today into Friday.
Overnight lows have hovered around freezing so far overnight and winds have been light. As it turns into Friday and the day progresses, drier air and shifting winds on the backside of departing trough will cut off LES from W to E. High pressure moseying on through will then keep PoPs in the not-mentionable category into the weekend.
Snow will slowly diminish this evening across the high country with snow showers continuing overnight over the Elkhead and Park mountains before ending Thursday morning. A ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin region will bring dry and near seasonable temperatures to the region tomorrow and tomorrow night. A ridge of high pressure will move east across the forecast area on Friday with the ridge axis forecasted to move east over the Front Range by Friday night.
1252 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 Aviation Low pressure is pushing a cold front across the cwa at this time. which is where we will feature the highest POPs. With the temperature above freezing for most of the event. This is when the surface temperatures fall to below freezing and the DGZ is only marginally saturated. Thus a small window of possible freezing precipitation may exist.
5 C/km, southeast of the closed upper low over southwest KS. The southern plains upper low will move east/southeast to the western Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. PWB Low pressure is currently moving across the Central Plains, and the trailing cold front is moving across east Texas.
The upper level low will continue tracking eastward into the Tennessee Valley today while ridging builds in the western CONUS. This northwest flow pattern aloft will lead to lee side troughing. Friday will also see upper level ridging shift over the Rockies into the Plains.
1238 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 Light rain showers will move through the area tonight with the passage of a warm front. Heavier precipitation is expected tomorrow afternoon as the center of low pressure system cross the Ohio River Valley.
335 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 Discussion/Marine -- Fog early this morning -- Areas of dense fog affecting Kalamazoo to Ionia toward the east have developed amid light winds in a weak trough. As the trough departs to the east, winds will gradually increase from the west and shift north. The upper level synoptic trough will amplify over the region with phasing of the northern and southern streams tonight, while relatively cold 850 mb air (-10 C) advects through Friday morning.
High pressure ridge will move offshore into the Atlantic.
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington NC 347 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 High pressure slides farther offshore today, before a strong and fast moving cold front crosses tonight into early Friday. High pressure moves back in over the weekend as a coastal low develops well offshore. Somewhat mild for a change this morning due to widespread mid/high clouds and low-level WAA ahead of an approaching low pressure system, also precluding fog development thus far. Most active weather of the entire forecast will be during the short term period, as aforementioned system and sfc cold front traverse the local area. Temps Friday night will fall down close to freezing, especially away from the coast, with continued CAA. High pressure finally builds in over the weekend as a deepening coastal low offshore lifts away from the Mid Atlantic.
Pockets of fog have developed across the lower valleys, but the combination of increased southeast surface winds overnight and overcast skies will limit fog development. Light precipitation will continue to spread from SW to NE over the region through the late morning as a warm front lifts to the northeast. Clouds will thicken and lower as a warm front lifts through the region overnight. The dry and mild weather continues through Friday as an upper ridge shifts eastward.
At the surface, the trailing Pacific cold front currently extends through Central Oklahoma into western North Texas.
The cold front continues to move across Oklahoma and north Texas early this morning, with wind speeds remaining in the 25-35 mph range sustained. So far in 2023, the lowest high temperature at OKC has been 52 (on the 3rd, 4th, and 7th), so today will feel a bit colder, especially early in the morning as the wind remains strong. In another anecdote that the weather in Oklahoma and Texas has not read a meteorology textbook: tonight we have seen dew points and relative humidity increase behind the cold front.
Weak upper level ridging will move through the Southwest US over the next few days. Temperatures will slowly moderate to normal or slightly above normal by Friday afternoon as the flow turns more southwest again and bring sin some warmer air.
Ridge of high pressure will build across the region today. Some moisture will work up the western side of the ridge, possibly resulting in some light snow accumulations across the Stanley region.
Areas that see clouds will be warmer with readings in the single digits where as clear areas would quickly fall into the single to teens below with ideal radiational cooling as winds go light.
/Issued 644 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023/ /Tonight through Thursday/ The already breezy conditions will worsen overnight tonight as a strong cold front makes its way through North & Central Texas. Overnight lows will drop into the low 40s to low 50s, with some low stratus along our eastern Red River counties possible in the morning. The Red Flag Warning will expire at 7 pm tonight, but any firefighting efforts overnight will still be complicated by the strong winds and northwesterly shift with the cold front. Thankfully, the front will push in much cooler air tonight and tomorrow with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s anticipated for Thursday.
1013 PM MST Wed Jan 11 2023 20z surface analysis had backdoor cold front sliding through northwest SD.
Winds will go light overnight as surface ridging settles across the forecast area.
Plenty of energy aloft is continuing the snow showers over the region this morning as an upper level trough exits to the east. A brief bout of cold air will arrive Friday giving some below zero wind chills Friday morning before we bounce back up into abnormally warm air for the rest of the forecast breaching the freezing mark several times with more dreary cloud cover.