Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Issued 1140 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023/ /Through Friday/ Subsidence will be the dominant meteorological process affecting North and Central Texas through Friday, as a large scale upper trough exits to our east and a ridge enters from the west. At the surface, a ridge continues to also build in from the west, which will keep calm to light north winds going overnight. Dry air, clear skies, and light winds will allow temperatures to drop below freezing for areas mainly north and west of the DFW Metroplex by daybreak Thursday. Warm advection and the presence of the mid level ridge will allow Friday temperatures to climb to well above normal, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s.
319 AM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 Still some lingering light snow across the far southeastern CWA early this morning on the backside of the spinning upper low. This looks to likely be the last hurrah as the low is getting far enough away to where dry conditions are now in the forecast by 12Z this morning.
647 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 A cold front will move across the region late today through this evening. High pressure will briefly build in on Friday. A slow-moving low pressure system will pass south of the region over the weekend. Southerly flow will occur today ahead of an approaching cold front. As a cold front moves through the area this evening, there will be some light precipitation accompanying it. Any accumulation will be light and limited impact as pavement temperatures will likely remain above freezing. Lows tonight will fall into the lower 30s area wide. Period starts with the potential for light snow accumulations along a band of isentropic lift developing well ahead of low pressure to the southwest.
520 AM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 (Today through Friday) A bit cooler today, but overall a very beautiful day ahead across the lower Mississippi River Valley/North Central Gulf Coast. Aloft, a longwave trough resides over the southeast. Toward the end of the period, upper level heights will gradually start to increase from west to east as the aforementioned upper trough beings to exit to our east.
627 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 (Today through Friday) A cold front will make its way across the Florida peninsula today, reaching South FL late this evening. Dry, cool air will filter in behind the cold front overnight and Friday as an area of high pressure starts building in from the southeastern US.
(Today through Friday) This AM at the surface, a cold front is present to the SE of AL extending from a low pressure system over NY. High pressure will continue to build over the C U. The ridge center is then expected to shift to over the Deep South as the main low over NY pushes to the EWD into the Atlantic taking the front with it and the SRN edge extending to the base of FL. The sky should remain clear through the short term with W winds 5-10kts today but lighter tomorrow as the ridge center settles in over AL and gradients relax. Cooler readings are expected today as opposed to our transitional day on Wed and still cooler for Friday.
435 AM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) Today marks the backside of winter for KMAF wrt normal climatological temperatures, w/WV imagery showing upper level ridging building into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to mark the occasion. Friday, southwest flow aloft sets in on the backside of the ridge. At the surface, westerlies will strengthen over the higher terrain, and return flow in the east, in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range.
The region is currently in a bit of a lull with regards to widespread precipitation this morning as the main cold front and associated atmospheric river has push to the south and inland. Thus, the High Wind Warning has been canceled with a Wind Advisory now in effect for the region's higher terrain where wind gusts continue in the 40 to 65 mph range.
515 AM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper ridge reaches the Texas panhandle late today, and the associated subsidence provides for mostly sunny skies and temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Tonight, expect increasing mid- and high- level clouds as strong WAA begins from southwest to northeast as the upper ridge axis crosses Oklahoma ahead of an approaching trough.
As winds back more to the north this evening with the low pressure system moving into the LP, lake effect should become more concentrated across the northern UP shorelines. Light snow accumulations may impact the evening commute, especially where any re-freezing of melted snow can occur on our wet roadways. Negative 500mb vorticity advection from an approaching short ridge will provide the subsidence to dry out any remaining snow showers.
1011 AM MST Thu Jan 5 2023 MORNING UPDATE: Made some small tweaks to high temperatures for today since some portions of the area are cooler than expected this morning. Patchy freezing fog is still possible overnight in valley locations north of the Missouri River.
The upper low with low to mid-level clouds currently across IL will shift southeastward toward our northern zones tonight with increasing clouds across SW VA. Otherwise temperatures should be mild today, with highs in the low to mid 50s in most places. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30s generally.
253 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 A cold front will move east across the Carolinas and offshore today.
The lowest visibilities as of now are 3 and 4 miles. This will continue into tonight, with high pressure building back in from the west, allowing fog to once again form overnight across all the west and central.
Despite the weak CAA across our area, near full insolation will contribute to temperatures topping out a little warmer than normal. /22/ Troughing will exit the region today and ridging aloft will build in from the west overnight. At the surface, high pressure will likewise shift east and become centered directly over the forecast area into early Friday morning. All of this will result in quiet and cooler conditions across the forecast area through the period.
323 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 Light precipitation possible through tonight with the passage of a cold front. Some light snow flurries or sprinkles possible on Friday before high pressure briefly builds in Friday night and dries us out.
Cold front that crossed the FA late yesterday has pushed well off the coast. Mainly WSW flow in wake of the cold front will keep conditions warm for another day. though a secondary cold front approaches late which may kick off ISOLD SHRAs over portions the lower MD ern shore towards this evening. Mainly dry wx is expected tonight as a secondary cold front crosses the area from W-E (with a stronger push of CAA expected).
This morning's update just features a minor tweak to forecast high temperatures to raise them a couple degrees with plenty of sunshine helping us warm up into the low to mid-50's. Dry conditions are expected to prevail with some cloudiness, most of that being provided by an upper level trough passage tonight. Temperatures will reflect continued ridging influences shifting from western contiguous U. Tonight lows will be around freezing.
138 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 The passage of a trough brings mostly light rain and snow to the region tonight into Friday night, with snow accumulation of up to a couple of inches on the ridges.
The upper level low pressure system will continue to crawl across the region tonight. Cooler tonight but still well above normal with lows ranging from the upper teens north to the mid 20s south. Friday night, 850 mb temperatures continue to warm and the 500 mb ridge begins to build into the Upper Great Lakes, so that other than some lingering clouds, the expectation would be some clearing overnight.
A potent high pressure centered over the central Atlantic and a dry air mass will promote dry and stable weather conditions, with nil Pops across the Keys today. Â Tonight, moisture associated with the cold front will reach the Keys, resulting in Pops increasing to (10%). From synopsis, a weak cold front will push into the Florida Keys coastal waters today, resulting in a brief period of slackened breezes.
Tonight will be mild, with light winds and overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. Temperatures will be well above normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.
1135 AM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 Key Points: * Cooler conditions remain across the region today, with warmer temperatures returning Friday.
Otherwise, lingering clouds across our MN counties, from the upper level low, that will continue to push east. Quiet weather expected for today with a high pressure system overhead and light winds. Still some lingering light snow across the far southeastern CWA early this morning on the backside of the spinning upper low. This looks to likely be the last hurrah as the low is getting far enough away to where dry conditions are now in the forecast by 12Z this morning.
Drier and cooler on Friday with morning clouds giving way to more sunshine in the afternoon. Moisture is very limited, so do not expect much in the way of snowfall accumulations; however, some of the highest elevations along the Clinch Mountain range and High Knob above 3500 ft elevation could receive up to a dusting. As the trough axis shifts eastward and ridging builds in from the west later in the day on Friday, decreasing clouds are expected with increasing sunshine during the afternoon. With flow becoming zonal aloft during the day and surface ridging across the Lower Mississippi Valley, temperatures will remain near normal.
Aloft, our remains remains in a generally zonal flow through the evening as a trough lifts off to the northeast. Tonight, northwest flow aloft gradually returns as weak ridging builds into the area from the west and then settles over the area on Friday. At the surface, high pressure continues to move into the region from the west through tonight, and then settles over our area by early Friday and through the rest of the period. Based on the aforementioned pattern, much drier air and cooler weather is expected through Friday. Highs on Friday are forecast to range mainly in the low to mid 60s across the region.
High pressure building into much of the region out of the mid/southern Plains states will help maintain the quiet/near seasonal wx pattern thru the end of the work week.
144 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 There is some apparent cross channeling PVA rounding the base of the mean upper trof this afternoon. More tranquil flight conditions are anticipated for the back half of the forecast with high pressure more firmly in control, but some higher level cloudiness is expected again thru and beyond the planning phase as our next weather system begins its approach.
Initially westerly surface winds will back to southerly over the course of the night as a lee trough begins to deepen out west. Cloud cover will begin to develop as southwest flow aloft intensifies behind the ridge, moistening the mid-levels. Consequently, lows tonight will be somewhat warmer than they've been the last few days.
219 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 An upper level low will track through the southern portion of the Great Lakes and bring scattered rain and snow showers to the region. The upper low centered over the Great Lakes will track east and then northeast on Friday. Given the warmer temperatures of late, surfaces are above freezing and roads are only wet.
1144 AM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) Today marks the backside of winter for KMAF wrt normal climatological temperatures, w/WV imagery showing upper level ridging building into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to mark the occasion. Friday, southwest flow aloft sets in on the backside of the ridge. At the surface, westerlies will strengthen over the higher terrain, and return flow in the east, in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range.
1046 AM MST Thu Jan 5 2023 Satellite imagery shows an expansive area of high level clouds moving east under the ridge axis (currently oriented over the Great Basin, but slowly sliding eastward this morning). This ridge will continue to nudge eastward over the forecast area by mid-day today. leading to slightly gusty winds mainly over favored ridges. The trough axis will move through the CWA by mid-day on Friday, with snowfall ending by Friday night. Snowfall amounts are on the lower edge of advisory criteria in a couple of the central and northern mountain zones.
Temperatures will be trending cooler though with some weak CAA from the aforementioned high. Overnight lows tonight will dip below freezing for most.
The quiet pattern will then prevail into the evening/overnight hrs, as a large dome of high pressure out of the mid/southern Plains continues to build into much of the region. Overnight temps will be rather cool, with lows falling predom into the lower 30s.
While most areas appears as though there will be some fog it is areas to the west that look to have the highest probability. Deep snow pack will limit warming, so with low level temperatures near or a bit cooler than today will lean on highs similar to today or a couple degrees lower.
Lows away from the coast in the lower to mid 40s, with upper 40s along the coast.
Southeasterly winds become breezy tomorrow ahead of the digging trough over the Desert Southwest. Highs will be very similar to today with temperatures reaching the lower 80s by the afternoon. Friday night will be a bit warmer with lows in the 60s and a little bit more cloud cover expected.
Tonight and Friday Scattered light snow and freezing drizzle will come to an end this evening as the low pressure system moves away. High pressure will prevail across the region this weekend.
With high pressure building into the area combined with dewpoints in the 30s.
122 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 The passage of a trough brings mostly light rain and snow to the region tonight into Friday night, with snow accumulation of up to a couple of inches on the ridges.
152 PM MST Thu Jan 5 2023 Scattered snow showers or light freezing rain will be possible tonight through Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, drier and slightly warmer air will move into Central MT. Most of the precipitation should fall as snow, but as warmer air moves in aloft, some of the precipitation could fall as freezing rain. No winter highlights will be issued either at this time, but should the higher QPF amounts look more likely, a winter highlight/increased POPS might be needed. As warmer air moves back into the area on Friday, afternoon highs will average about 4 to 8 degrees above normal.
1159 AM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper ridge reaches the Texas panhandle late today, and the associated subsidence provides for mostly sunny skies and temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Tonight, expect increasing mid- and high- level clouds as strong WAA begins from southwest to northeast as the upper ridge axis crosses Oklahoma ahead of an approaching trough.
This should lead to minimal impacts especially before sunset as road temperatures remain above freezing. Air temperatures will likely fall below freezing tonight as the bulk of the cold air mass arrives behind the aforementioned low. Short wave ridging will build within modest westerly WAA. Guidance continues to struggle with a weakly forced low pressure system that is expected to move out of the central Plains and somewhere into the Ohio Valley region this weekend.
The cold front will then sweep southward across the Panhandles behind an upper level short wave trough moving out onto the Central Plains Friday night.
242 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 Tonight and Friday: Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis still had our CWA at the base of an upper level trough emanating from a closed low centered over the Great Lakes region. The closed low will open up as it shifts east and moves over the New England states by Friday evening. Friday our flow aloft will become near zonal as the upper level trough shifts east off the east coast.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft transitioning eastward through the Central and Southern Rockies. Near the surface, a small area of high pressure is shifting eastward across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. The winds should take on a more variable direction as high pressure builds southward across the FA this afternoon. This should help to keep minimums slightly warmer, with values more in the 20s instead of teens. This will all depend on where the warm front makes it to Friday. South of the front, good downsloping will result in the warmer highs.
1106 AM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 Today: Stubborn closed low currently situated over eastern IA slowly wobbles eastward today, putting an end to any meaningful snowfall by daybreak.
239 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 High pressure keeps the forecast dry through the weekend, with temperatures lingering near seasonal norms for early January.
A zonal flow will prevail aloft as the area remains beneath a longwave trough. Upper-level ridging will amplify over the Central Plains through late afternoon. Expect the base of the upper trough to become centered to the east of the area overnight while ridging aloft continues to build over much of the Plains. Lows range from around freezing north to the upper 30s southeast. The flow pattern will become more zonal over much of the Southern part of the country on Friday as the upper trough moves further northeast over the New England Region. Ridging will move east over the Lower and Middle Mississippi River Valley regions. Highs will range from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s far south.
Negative 500mb vorticity advection from an approaching short ridge will provide the subsidence to dry out any remaining snow showers.
1133 AM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 (Today and tonight) We will see short wave ridging move overhead today as we become sandwiched between two upper level troughs.
A mild afternoon was observed in the Keys, with daytime high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The pleasant day resulted from a potent high pressure centered over the Central Atlantic that extends into the Keys and a dry air mass. Winds have slackened ahead of the cold front due to the area being in a col region; winds have decreased from 10 knots to nearly 5 knots in the coastal waters and island chain. The front will usher in cooler air, bringing daytime and nighttime temperatures to near-normal, and promote relatively stable weather conditions, with the possible hazards being small craft advisory conditions for the coastal waters of the Keys.
Over the evening and overnight hours the low will slide east, taking a majority of the cloud cover with it. WAA plus insolation from mostly clear skies will push high temperatures about 5 degrees warmer than today.
Taking a look at the bigger picture, A mid-level trough continues to advect eastward across the Great Lakes region today with an associated frontal boundary gradually propagating southward across the Florida peninsula. High temperatures will reach the low to middle 80s along the immediate coast with a few suburbs potentially reaching the upper 80s during peak heating this afternoon. Temperatures along the immediate Gulf coast will be the "cool" spot today as southerly winds blow onshore after passing over cooler shelf waters. High temperatures will remain in the low 80s along these areas. Temperatures will be near seasonal norms tomorrow with high temperatures in the low to upper 70s area-wide.
We'll refine our high forecast for today, mainly making it cooler on the north side of Denver. We also need more clouds than we had in the forecast, which will also help keep it cooler in the cold pool. A ridge of high pressure will be over the region through tonight. The ridge axis will along the CO/UT border at 12z with a moderate northwesterly flow over the forecast area. As the ridge axis shifts eastward today, mid and upper level moisture overrunning the ridge will start spreading across the region. High temperatures will be warmer today, but still cooler than normal for this time of year. For tonight, the ridge axis will shift to the CO/KS border with a southwesterly flow aloft developing over the north central and northeast CO. Weak upper troughing will push across the CWA on Friday.
148 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 (Issued 148 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023) Tonight through Friday night: Snow shower coverage is dwindling across the region this afternoon, as the upper level low over the area slowly weakens and begins to push east of the area.
1254 PM MST Thu Jan 5 2023 Upper ridge axis will move across the Rockies and adjacent central High Plains today and tonight. Winds will turn northwest Friday night behind the low, when perhaps a few light wraparound rain/snow showers will develop.
1254 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 A cold front will move across the region late today through this evening. High pressure will briefly build in on Friday. A slow-moving low pressure system will pass south of the region over the weekend. Cyclonic flow around low pressure in the upper Midwest region will continue to usher in southwesterly flow into our CWA. As a cold front moves through the area this evening, there will be some light precipitation accompanying it. Any accumulation will be light and limited impact as pavement temperatures will likely remain above freezing. Lows tonight will fall into the lower 30s area wide. Period starts with the potential for light snow accumulations along a band of isentropic lift developing well ahead of low pressure to the southwest.
(Through Friday) High pressure will nestle into the region allowing dry weather to prevail. Temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the upper 30s and low 40s fore SE AL and SW GA and in the low to mid 40s for our FL counties.
Light snow/flurries will continue to move across northern parts of the cwa rest of the day as the upper level low continues to track across northern IL/Grt Lks area. Scattered snow showers will continue to pinwheel into the region this morning beneath the upper low. There, thermo profiles reveal steep lapse rates, strong upward omega and sufficient moisture through the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) -- all byproducts of the upper low as it pivots across the region this morning. Skies should begin to clear late tonight as large-scale subsidence works in behind the departing upper low.
106 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 (18Z TAFS) Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms should continue to push southward ahead and along the cold front.
1243 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 An upper level low will track through the southern portion of the Great Lakes and bring scattered rain and snow showers to the region. M30C 5H temperatures suggest and HRRR suggest convective elements/brief snow bursts associated with transitory bands, though overall impact offset by above freezing surface temperatures.
A tranquil pattern will continue throughout the period as weak ridging aloft shifts east across the Western High Plains tonight and farther on into the Central Plains Friday. Slow developing lee side troughing will bring about a south-southwest flow to western Kansas tonight, helping draw slightly warmer air into the area. Still, expect temperatures to drop below freezing across much of southwest/central Kansas with lows in the 20s(F) with the lower 30s(F) possible in extreme southwest Kansas. Enhanced by downsloping, look for afternoon highs well up into the 50s(F) for much of southwest/south central Kansas with the lower/mid 60s(F) likely in extreme southwest Kansas. This will all depend on where the warm front makes it to Friday. South of the front, good downsloping will result in the warmer highs.
1240 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 High pressure builds from the west over the next few days bringing rain-free and near seasonable weather.
As the upper low over the Great Lakes region continues to gradually push eastward, the northern Plains looks to remain quiet as upper level ridging builds in from the west. At the surface, generally high pressure looks to remain in place.
935 AM MST Thu Jan 5 2023 Upper ridge axis will move across the Rockies and adjacent central High Plains today and tonight. Winds will turn northwest Friday night behind the low, when perhaps a few light wraparound rain/snow showers will develop.