Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
621 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 (Today through Friday Night ) A pesky upper lvl ridge remains cemented in place over the ARK-LA- TEX region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a warm front has pushed well east of the CWA, leaving in its wake an airmass that has slightly more moisture leading to the increase of dewpoint temperatures across the region. The CW flow around the area of high pressure will continue to usher in moisture via southerly flow into the Natural State to maintain this airmass.
Interesting set up today with a high pressure dome aloft just to our southwest. Friday will be rather similar in set up with the ridge still in place aloft and another "ridge runner" rolling through bringing possible convection to eastern portions of the CWA.
The source for these differences can be progged mainly to below 700 mb, with the Lower Keys likely situated in a much drier environment than the Upper Keys. Inherited a split zone forecast for this afternoon, with likely measurable rainfall in the Upper Keys transitioning to low-end chance levels in the Lower Keys.
While HRRR model suggest that both MCS should remain east of the Mid-South, the presence of the warm front over west Tennessee may encourage thunderstorm develop closer to the region.
232 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023 It will become warmer and noticeably more humid as we push into the long holiday weekend.
1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level high shifts east a little farther east today and continues the slow downward trend in afternoon temperatures. May continue to flirt with Heat Advisory criteria, but given that its marginal and almost 10 degrees cooler than what we were looking at last week, will not issue any additional heat products for today.
The center of very strong high pressure aloft (around 595 dam) will continue to gradually build east and over the forecast area through Friday. This, with high pressure at the surface in place across the forecast area, along with the continued very humid airmass, will yet again result in yet another dangerously hot conditions across the forecast area through Friday.
High temperatures will be a degree or two warmer today with slightly less humidity, but the resultant heat impacts will likely be similar to yesterday.
445 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023 It will become warmer and noticeably more humid as we push into the long holiday weekend.
1135 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Aviation Section Updated Warmer and drier conditions are expected through the next few days, though the slight chance for showers and thunderstorms remains possible. Afternoon temperatures will generally be a bit warmer today, as warm air advection continues to move in from the southwest. /ISSUED 515 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023/ Upper-level ridging begins to builds over western CONUS, dissolving the daily showers and thunderstorms. The upper-level ridging will amplify quite significantly over the course of the weekend, and with it, warmer and drier conditions, but weak disturbances combined with diurnal heating will maintain at least a slight chance for predominately afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, especially over higher terrain.
139 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 As advertised, the weather pattern change to drier and warmer conditions is underway. Heights are rising, and a modest ridge is expected to build through this weekend. Under this ridge, temperatures will be running about 5 to 10 degrees above average. The highest probabilities (near 20%) will be in southwest Montana. Operational forecast models are in good agreement that a trough will slide across southern British Columbia and Alberta late in the weekend. This trough will work to compress the ridge over the Northern Rockies, leading to a tighter pressure gradient across the region.
333 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Short Term (Today through Friday Night) As the ridge axis aloft slowly shifts east, a surface frontal boundary has stalled across northern MO and is extending southeastwards along the Mississippi River. Temperatures have stayed cooler than previously forecast across the parts of the area that received rain, and an outflow boundary also cooled temperatures slightly in the St.
/Issued 1157 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023/ /This Afternoon Through Friday/ Strong subsidence beneath a mid-level ridge will continue to keep quiet weather in place through the end of the work week. The ridge will shift slightly further east tomorrow, and high temperatures will be a few degrees "cooler" as a result with heat index values generally remaining below 105 degrees. /NEW/ /Friday night through next Thursday/ As we enter the pre-Fourth weekend, North Central Texas will remain positioned on the western flank of the large mid level high parked over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
1150 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023 High pressure over the region today will offer the nicest weather of this forecast package.
1233 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 (Today through Friday) The center of the Subtropical Ridge lingers over Louisiana today and Friday while the western edge over Texas erodes somewhat especially on Friday as an upper level trough moves over the Central Rockies into the High Plains. There remains strong subsidence underneath our portion of Ridge along with a drier than normal airmass to keep POPs out of the forecast.
Cooler temperatures will arrive over the weekend but additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain. Northern parts of the area will stay a bit cooler, but will still warm into the low to mid 90s. Relief will finally arrive Friday night as a cold front pushes through the area.
1127 AM PDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Drier weather and hotter temperatures will arrive Thursday as high pressure builds over the Western United States.
Today should have the spunkiest storms of the next several days as the low departs the kinematics and thermodynamics will weaken. Weak flow and high pressure builds from the west for a few warm days with little in the way of weather hazards. Speaking of fog, there has been a persistent layer of marine fog stretching along the cooler waters of the North Shore which has seeped a little into the adjacent shoreline but not enough to warrant any headlines inland; however, it sure has kept Grand Marais cool with its current temperature sitting at 50F by the water.
This is in response to a weak low pressure system over eastern Idaho. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region on Friday.
as increasing 500mb heights build over the west coast, the upper trough to our northwest Thursday slowly moves southeast and into the area. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 70s to middle 80s with low temperatures in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
(This evening through Friday) Early afternoon satellite analysis depicts a well-defined upper level trough axis centered over the Great Basin drifting slowly eastward, with a belt of midlevel moisture within the southwesterly flow aloft upstream of the trough axis over eastern New Mexico. The broad dome of upper level high pressure responsible for the persistent heat of the past several days has also begun to shift eastward bringing a modest reduction in temperatures today and especially on Friday as layer thicknesses decrease. The aforementioned upper level trough axis will accelerate eastward on Friday bringing increased storm chances to most of the region. 5" Friday afternoon as a plume of Pacific moisture shifts overhead, with the arrival of the upper trough appearing favorably timed to support scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon over the western/central South Plains region.
Rain and thunderstorm chances increase along with slightly cooler temperatures this weekend.
(Tonight through Friday night) Mid-level ridging is shifting east away from the area, opening the door for additional Gulf moisture to influence the RGV.
High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid and upper 80s north up to the lower 90s south. At the start of the period, the broad ridge of high pressure remains to our south over the Gulf of Mexico with a closed low over Ontario and a wave digging down into into the Central Great Plains. This set up keeps the ILN CWA under an area of enhanced westerly flow aloft on the northern periphery of the ridge.
Temperatures will trend several degrees warmer than yesterday. Fcst max temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s trend +5-10 degrees F warmer vs. Models continue to signal dry weather overnight with min temps trending a bit warmer on the margin.
Upper level ridging continues to nudge slightly east on Friday which will lead to high temps a degree or two cooler tomorrow.
47 (Today through Friday Night) With the area remaining under the influence of mid/upper level ridging (centered just to our north early this morning), there is once again little change in the forecast.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon Through Friday/ Strong subsidence beneath a mid-level ridge will continue to keep quiet weather in place through the end of the work week. The ridge will shift slightly further east tomorrow, and high temperatures will be a few degrees "cooler" as a result with heat index values generally remaining below 105 degrees.
There might be one or two storms in/near the CWA through late this evening to monitor, but the higher likelihood is that dry conditions will prevail over most of the CWA tonight.
Wouldn't be overly surprised to see some isolated, short lived streamer showers try to get going offshore Fri or Fri night along the backside of the ridging.
117 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Upper-level analysis shows split flow over the western CONUS: a trough across much of the western US and ridging over the far NW. At the surface, high pressure rests over WY, creating light NW winds across our CWA. More showers/storms are expected Friday afternoon/evening as the main trough crosses our area. Upper ridging over the western CONUS will result in a warmer and drier weekend, although a stray shower/storm cannot be ruled out.
In addition, rainfall amounts between 1-2 inches were reported in several areas along and south of I-80, along with cooler temperatures. increasing subsidence aloft and weak high pressure will bring quiet conditions and calm winds. A warm front will be draped across northern MO through the day and will bring another round of storms to areas that saw activity today. Discussion: A positively tilted longwave trough will track over the Great Plains into Iowa this weekend.
348 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 The MCS activity has certainly squashed the northward movement of our surface warm frontal feature, however continued moist advection on its northern side still leaves ample instability for thunderstorms this afternoon across northern Illinois and Northwest Indiana, however our lapse rate profile both aloft and near the surface has become less impressive, such that the severe threat is diminished. Untapped areas across far northern Illinois may still have a isolated downburst wind threat with the approach of a surface cold front.
Weather wise, the main impact will be seen in visibilities and potentially high temperature falling a degree or two cooler than would be expected.
1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Interesting set up today with a high pressure dome aloft just to our southwest. Friday will be rather similar in set up with the ridge still in place aloft and another "ridge runner" rolling through bringing possible convection to eastern portions of the CWA.
313 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are firing off in NW Minnesota this afternoon, and will continue into tonight as the Low moves east in Canada. Temperatures tonight will dip into the 50s and highs tomorrow will reach the low 80s to round out the work week.
, Camas and eastern Elmore Counties, before the moisture and weak upper trough exit east tonight.
(This evening through Friday) Temperatures will continue to trend down Friday as upper level pressure, centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley, continues to weaken. High cloudiness will be on the increase Friday afternoon, as an upper trough approaches.
/22 (Now through Friday) Ridging aloft continues to build over the area through the period, becoming more pronounced on Friday. At the surface, high pressure over the western Gulf today, tracks further east to the north central Gulf on Friday.
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 The MCS activity has certainly squashed the northward movement of our surface warm frontal feature, however continued moist advection on its northern side still leaves ample instability for thunderstorms this afternoon across northern Illinois and Northwest Indiana, however our lapse rate profile both aloft and near the surface has become less impressive, such that the severe threat is diminished. Untapped areas across far northern Illinois may still have a isolated downburst wind threat with the approach of a surface cold front.
Beyond this threat the afternoon and evening should be pretty quiet as showers and storms develop across the High Plains of Nebraska and southern SD.
147 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 An upper level ridge of high pressure will start to build over the Northern Rockies for a few days.
A ridge will build over the region through the weekend which will bring continued dry weather and rapidly warming temperatures.
1215 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 (Today through Friday Night ) A pesky upper lvl ridge remains cemented in place over the ARK-LA- TEX region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a warm front has pushed well east of the CWA, leaving in its wake an airmass that has slightly more moisture leading to the increase of dewpoint temperatures across the region. The CW flow around the area of high pressure will continue to usher in moisture via southerly flow into the Natural State to maintain this airmass.
Meanwhile the upper pattern remaining slowly progressive, the upper trough will move closer to western Kansas on Friday resulting in higher shear values, and better opportunity for organization, although not necessarily better SBCAPE.
Upper-level ridging is holding on strong across the region, with an Excessive Heat warning still in effect until 8PM tonight. The airmass that we're working with is unusually moist given the ridge overhead.
Aloft, quasi- neutral flow is in place, with one embedded ripple currently crossing far northern Michigan as another /MCV/ exiting IA and takeing aim on the lower Great Lakes. It's really more of a modest wind shift than a cold front.
As an upper-level ridge axis slides eastward, a weak boundary remains stalled over North Central Florida.
Bowlan (Tomorrow through Thursday) Deep layer ridging begins to break down and spread southeast during the day tomorrow, which will begin to bring a break to the heat across the region and allow more daily rain chances. Tomorrow will be a couple degrees cooler than today as the upper ridge shifts southeastward and more high level cloud cover spreads across the area. Though the airmass will be slightly cooler and drier, heat index values are still expected to be near 105 degrees tomorrow afternoon across most of the region, and that along with the cumulative affects of several days of heat. A couple of isolated thunderstorms will also be possible tomorrow afternoon, during peak heating, across the far northern portions of the forecast area along the periphery of the upper ridge as it shifts away from the area.
1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 (Today through Friday) The broad 500mb ridge parked over Louisiana will continue to provide subsidence with hot and humid conditions today and Friday. Warm and humid tonight with overnight lows in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
The axis of the trough that has been over the west the last few days begins to move eastward through Utah today. Some breezy to gusty winds are expected today with the trough still nearby, but should be fairly lighter than the last couple of days with most locations seeing gusts of 15-25 kts. Dry conditions and slightly cooler than normal temperatures are otherwise expected today. George, UT do indicate some mid-level moisture increasing near the Kaibab Plateau ahead of the trough axis. The longwave trough departs the region into the Rockies, with heights begin to rise as high pressure builds into the southwest. Dry conditions are expected to prevail, though increasing cloud cover over the higher terrain is expected in the afternoon.
With scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon, have lowered temperatures a few degrees but unseasonably hot conditions expected no matter what as apex of upper ridging influences build across our area.
231 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Drier air has been working into the region today as a ridge noses east into the Northern Rockies.
700 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Short Term (Today through Friday Night) As the ridge axis aloft slowly shifts east, a surface frontal boundary has stalled across northern MO and is extending southeastwards along the Mississippi River. Temperatures have stayed cooler than previously forecast across the parts of the area that received rain, and an outflow boundary also cooled temperatures slightly in the St.
(Tomorrow through Thursday) Deep layer ridging begins to break down and spread southeast during the day tomorrow, which will begin to bring a break to the heat across the region and allow more daily rain chances. Tomorrow will be a couple degrees cooler than today as the upper ridge shifts southeastward and more high level cloud cover spreads across the area. Though the airmass will be slightly cooler and drier, heat index values are still expected to be near 105 degrees tomorrow afternoon across most of the region, and that along with the cumulative affects of several days of heat. A couple of isolated thunderstorms will also be possible tomorrow afternoon, during peak heating, across the far northern portions of the forecast area along the periphery of the upper ridge as it shifts away from the area.
Tonight and Friday A weak cold front or trough was moving across Eastern Wisconsin at 3pm.
609 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 (This evening through Friday) Temperatures will continue to trend down Friday as upper level high pressure, centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley, continues to weaken. High cloudiness will be on the increase Friday afternoon, as an upper trough approaches.
323 PM PDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Drier weather and hotter temperatures will arrive Thursday as high pressure builds over the Western United States.
Showers and thunderstorms are firing off in NW Minnesota this afternoon, and will continue into tonight as the Low moves east in Canada. Temperatures tonight will dip into the 50s and highs tomorrow will reach the low 80s to round out the work week.
Late afternoon and evening temperatures will be several degrees warmer than yesterday.
636 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 The MCS activity has certainly squashed the northward movement of our surface warm frontal feature, however continued moist advection on its northern side still leaves ample instability for thunderstorms this afternoon across northern Illinois and Northwest Indiana, however our lapse rate profile both aloft and near the surface has become less impressive, such that the severe threat is diminished. Untapped areas across far northern Illinois may still have a isolated downburst wind threat with the approach of a surface cold front.
634 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) Mid-level ridging is shifting east away from the area, opening the door for additional Gulf moisture to influence the RGV.
Models again have generally done poorly with the low-level moisture trends in the evening. With the mid-level ridge planted over the area, the convection currently moving through the northwest panhandles and western Kansas should remain to the northwest of the forecast area.
Where it has managed rain, temperatures have responded accordingly, falling into the lower 80s. The Lower Keys remain the only holdouts at this time. This will gradually begin adding more moisture to the low levels.
(Tonight through Friday) Certainly felt that heat today! Upper-level ridge is in full affect across Central Alabama. Tonight, temperatures should drop into the low to mid-70s under partly cloudy skies and winds light an variable. By tomorrow morning, the mid-level ridge will be centered over the Lower MS River. There could still be some remnant wedging in our east to start the day, but dewpoints are expected to rise into the low to mid 70s by tomorrow afternoon with highs around 100 degrees. Some subtle embedded troughing and perhaps a secondary decaying MCS may rotate north to south across the area tomorrow afternoon, but but will keep afternoon PoPs at 20% for now due to the low predictability of this pattern.
242 PM PDT Thu Jun 29 2023 A rapid warming trend will take place through Satruday as high pressure strengthens over the area.
Aloft, quasi- neutral flow is in place, with one embedded ripple currently crossing far northern Michigan as another /MCV/ exiting IA and taking aim on the lower Great Lakes. It's really more of a modest wind shift than a cold front.
Meanwhile, onshore winds, low clouds with patches of fog will keep coastal areas much cooler through this weekend.
911 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Upper-level ridge continues to sit tight, allowing for another quiet, but warm evening. Lows will continue to fall into the upper 70s, some even in the low 80s. Upper-level ridging is holding on strong across the region, with an Excessive Heat warning still in effect until 8PM tonight. The airmass that we're working with is unusually moist given the ridge overhead.
543 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION An upper level ridge of high pressure will start to build over the Northern Rockies for a few days.
For the remainder of tonight expect mostly clear skies with lows in the low to mid 70s.
We will be dry the next few days with much warmer temperatures.
853 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 An upper level ridge of high pressure will start to build over the Northern Rockies for a few days.
The high based storms that were approaching from se MN have also mostly dissipated. Will maintain slight chances for storms over the srn half of the CWA tomorrow afternoon as the remnants of the numerous convection over the high plains may clip the area. Some his period with surface ridging taking hold.
Combination of decreased cloud cover/increased insolation and strong U/L ridge over the area will allow temperatures to climb several degrees above normal into the lower to mid 90s across the region on Friday. As an upper-level ridge axis slides eastward, a weak boundary remains stalled over North Central Florida.
Southerly flow ahead of this low was keeping temps elevated in the mid-70s over the central and eastern UP, and lingering low-level moisture is keeping a decent amount of clouds around for most of the CWA. Highs for the rest of the day will range from the mid-60s in the Keweenaw (although the northern tip may stay in the 50s) to the low 80s in Menominee County.
500 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION An upper level ridge of high pressure will start to build over the Northern Rockies for a few days.
334 PM PDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Drier weather and hotter temperatures will arrive Thursday as high pressure builds over the Western United States.
511 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Upper-level analysis shows split flow over the western CONUS: a trough across much of the western US and ridging over the far NW. At the surface, high pressure rests over WY, creating light NW winds across our CWA. More showers/storms are expected Friday afternoon/evening as the main trough crosses our area. Upper ridging over the western CONUS will result in a warmer and drier weekend, although a stray shower/storm cannot be ruled out.
Light NW winds (5-15 mph) and highs in the low to mid 80s. Mainly clear tonight, then sunny and warmer on Saturday. Will need to watch for late day or night time scattered t-storms, esp north, as a warm front moves through, with centered area of 850 mb warm advection moving thru northern ND.