Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the same time, an upper level ridge axis centered over the Rockies will move east as a strong trough moves onshore in the Pacific Northwest.
Today: RAP/water vapor analysis indicate longwave trough east of the Plains, while ridge axis centered over the Desert Southwest. /DC/ By Tuesday, the ArkLaMiss region is progged to be on the southwestern side of a positively tilted trough with an axis across the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. This will allow for deep N/NW flow into the Lower Mississippi Valley region, which will filter drier air into the region.
broad upper level ridging will slowly move over the area ahead of a developing low pressure system forecast to move into northern Idaho/Montana by 12z Tuesday. For the overnight hours, the upper level low is forecast to move into the Dakotas with the strength of the low a little deeper compared to 24 hours ago. The associated cold front is currently forecast to enter Yuma county around midnight, quickly moving through the entire area after midnight. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
When the high drifts to the south tonight light south winds will signal the start of a significant warming trend.
- The next system will bring cooler temperatures by mid week with gusty winds in the higher mountains/foothills and portions of the plains. A spectacular fall day shaping up for Tuesday with more sunshine, light winds, and warmer temperatures into the lower 70s across the plains. An upper level ridge continues across northeastern Colorado.
354 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 A series of low pressure troughs pass across the region early this week. High pressure builds in for the middle of the week.
(Today through Tuesday) The BRO CWFA will remain situated between a deep mid-level trough along the Atlantic Seaboard and a 500 mb ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners area. Additionally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will create a High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches today.
This coupled with height rises will allow temperatures to rise into the low to mid 60s today. This high pressure ridge will slide east of the area Tuesday with modest WAA developing in the afternoon. In addition, weak upstream upper level ridging will develop over the region in response to a upper level trough digging into the northern Plains. The sole chance for precipitation this forecast period will revolve around the track of the upper level trough.
Today and Tuesday: A ridge of high pressure sliding across the Midwest will bring quiet conditions to the region and seasonable temperatures, and we'll continue to dry out after all the rain last week.
449 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 An upper level trough will slowly rotate over Central PA Monday into Tuesday.
1248 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) An upper level trough situated over the eastern US will deepen as it slowly moves eastward. Meanwhile a strengthening ridge over the western US will slowly work eastward. The northerly winds will continue to bring cooler and drier air to Deep South Texas. Monday night temperatures are expected to fall to the low to mid 50s.
(Today through Tuesday) RAP analysis early this morning depicts an amplified H5 pattern with TX situated between a western CONUS ridge and an eastern CONUS trough. At the surface, high pressure is dominating from TX to the Dakotas and into Canada. Many Texans will find the mornings a tad chilly, with lows today in the low to mid 40s north and low 50s south, and even cooler tomorrow in most areas with efficient radiational cooling allowing some locations to dip into the low 40s.
1214 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) The deterministic runs predict the development of a highly meridional upper pattern over the CONUS during the period, with an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, along with a corresponding ridge axis across the Rockies. A secondary surge of high pressure will maintain below normal temperatures during the period.
temps had fallen into the low/mid 40s across far Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas. which combined with mostly clear skies and high pressure will aid in low temps falling into the mid 30s to lower 40s across the CWA.
Generally sunny skies on Tuesday as the main trough exits to the east. Temperatures will be in the low 60s today to upper 60s to near 70 on Tuesday.
High pressure will build in towards midweek which will allow temperatures to warm closer to normal. The mostly dry conditions area-wide this evening won't last much longer for many spots, especially locales near/W of I-75 into N KY as a S/W embedded within the broader longwave trof pivots S through the region late this evening through the first part of the overnight.
A positively-tilted upper trough extending from the Canadian Maritimes southwestward over New England will slowly fill but continue to promote isolated to scattered showers. Northerly flow about the west flank of troughing will see a continued cold-advective regime with highs only reaching into the upper 40s to low 50s in high terrain and mid 50s to near 60 at lower elevations. Any lingering showers will quickly diminish this evening as upper troughing exits to the east, while elevated cloud cover will keep temperatures slightly above average tonight, with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the region.
These highs are comparable to what we typically see the first week of June! The warmth is due to high pressure over the southwest United States. The high is over Arizona now, with a weak embedded low near northern Baja. This low will drift northward into the state by Tuesday, not really changing the temperatures much but pushing slightly higher moisture values up to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.
308 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 A large upper level low pressure system will remain over the northeastern United States through Tuesday. High pressure builds in midweek with moderating temperatures afterwards. 8h temps around zero or so will be enough to bring some snowflakes to elevations above 4000kft and a dusting on the ground is likely in places like Beech Mtn, Mt Rogers and the highest terrain of Greenbrier County WV. Expect clouds to be persistent along/west of the Blue Ridge, with mix of sun and clouds east. Temperatures may struggle to reach the lower to mid 40s across the mountains of WV/SW VA and NC with the New River Valley making it around 50, with around 60 across the VA/NC piedmont.
724 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 A series of low pressure troughs pass across the region early this week. High pressure builds in for the middle of the week.
Highs 10-15 degrees above normal will continue across southeast Arizona through the work week, under the influence of high pressure early this week and again later toward the weekend. In the short term, the latest water vapor satellite imagery depicts a high amplitude ridge aloft over the western U. For Tuesday the threat expands northward over the White mountains as the ridge across the west weakens.
926 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 A large upper level low pressure system will remain over the northeastern United States through Tuesday. High pressure builds in midweek with moderating temperatures afterwards. Freezing level is at 4700 feet. 8h temps around zero or so will be enough to bring some snowflakes to elevations above 4000kft and a dusting on the ground is likely in places like Beech Mtn, Mt Rogers and the highest terrain of Greenbrier County WV. Expect clouds to be persistent along/west of the Blue Ridge, with mix of sun and clouds east. Temperatures may struggle to reach the lower to mid 40s across the mountains of WV/SW VA and NC with the New River Valley making it around 50, with around 60 across the VA/NC piedmont.
Dry cold front moves thru the region beginning this evening, exiting Tuesday.
Dry conditions and well above normal temperatures will continue through the work week, with cooler temperatures not expected to settle into the region until late into this upcoming weekend. High amplitude ridging remains firmly in place across the Desert Southwest, with mid-level heights in excess of 590 dam across the immediate region. Pattern evolution through the week would indicate little hope of seeing highs below 100 degrees across the lower deserts before this upcoming weekend.
High pressure will remain over the area today, bringing dry and stable conditions with a continued warming trend.
We still have some energy wrapping around this upper low to our north that is bringing some light rain/drizzle in from Kentucky.
The Florida Keys remain under a stiff northwest wind this morning behind the recent cold front passage overnight. Whereas, observation sites under a northwesterly wind are in the lower 80s.
High temperatures are on track to reach the upper 50s to low 60s, with cooler temperatures in areas of increased cloud cover.
512 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2023 With high pressure remaining in control today, expect abundant sunshine and just a few passing high clouds. A trough is expected to move into the Pacific Northwest this evening, but will track along the US/Canadian border through the day Tuesday. As the trough drops into the Northern Plains on Tuesday afternoon, the pressure gradient will tighten between it and the ridge building into the western CONUS.
-Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Tuesday/ High pressure remains in full control to begin the workweek with mostly clear and dry weather prevailing. As high pressure begins shifting eastward tomorrow, southwest winds will resume locally, and this will cause a warming trend to ensue heading into the midweek period.
306 AM PDT Mon Oct 16 2023 A weak system will bring light showers and sprinkles today afternoon, mainly over the Coastal Range, then warmer and drier weather returns. Biggest impact will be cooler temperatures today. On Tuesday a ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the region with warmer temperatures and northerly winds for the valley.
634 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Cooler air will continue to filter in today. An upper trough may provide a slight chance of light rain or sprinkles this afternoon.
Coverage will become more scattered (40-60%) this afternoon with drier air moving in and the low level flow becoming northwesterly. High temperatures will be a notch cooler than yesterday, but generally in the mid 50s. There is debate about sky cover for tonight because there are hints of low level moisture getting trapped beneath 5000 ft with warmer air moving in aloft.
653 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 An upper level trough will slowly rotate over Central PA today into Tuesday.
An upper level ridge will be over the area with dry NW flow aloft thru tonight. This will allow for highs to rise into the lower to mid 70's across nern CO. The axis of a large ridge aloft will move over Colorado Tuesday morning with more zonal flow returning by the end of the day. Highs will reach the low 80s across the plains and Denver is forecast to be within a couple of degrees of the record high of 86 F set in 1926.
Issues tonight are what degree does the moisture keep cigs locked in under the strengthening inversion as opposed to dry air advection from the building ridge helping to scour out clouds through the night. This weather regime will maintain cool conditions with high temperatures in the lower/mid 50s again.
551 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (Today through Tuesday) The BRO CWFA will remain situated between a deep mid-level trough along the Atlantic Seaboard and a 500 mb ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners area. Additionally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will create a High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches today.
547 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (Today and tonight) A strong upper level ridge is currently firmly in place over the Southwestern U. Light winds through the overnight hours will gradually veer to the south with lows in the low to mid 40s.
541 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 A series of low pressure troughs pass across the region early this week. High pressure builds in for the middle of the week.
606 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (Today through Tuesday) RAP analysis early this morning depicts an amplified H5 pattern with TX situated between a western CONUS ridge and an eastern CONUS trough. At the surface, high pressure is dominating from TX to the Dakotas and into Canada. Many Texans will find the mornings a tad chilly, with lows today in the low to mid 40s north and low 50s south, and even cooler tomorrow in most areas with efficient radiational cooling allowing some locations to dip into the low 40s.
Underneath the upper ridge and warming temperatures aloft, daytime mixing should allow temperatures to reach into the upper 50s to low and mid 60s today, warmest near central North Dakota. Temperatures will be warmer on Tuesday, with most locations into the 60s, possibly touching 70 in the southern Valley and Devils Lake basin.
809 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Temperatures are beginning to warm above freezing in Gove, Logan, and Wichita counties, so the Freeze Warning has been allowed to expire. broad upper level ridging will slowly move over the area ahead of a developing low pressure system forecast to move into northern Idaho/Montana by 12z Tuesday. For the overnight hours, the upper level low is forecast to move into the Dakotas with the strength of the low a little deeper compared to 24 hours ago. The associated cold front is currently forecast to enter Yuma county around midnight, quickly moving through the entire area after midnight. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
954 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 A series of low pressure troughs pass across the region early this week. High pressure builds in for the middle of the week.
627 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level troughing holds through this period. High temperatures for Monday will be in the low to mid 60s for SW GA and SE AL, while FL counties remain slightly warmer in the mid 60s to upper 60s, perhaps near 70 along the coast and in Dixie Co. Light winds and mostly clear skies should lead to low temperatures in the low to mid 40s for SW GA and SE AL.
324 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Today and Tonight: Quiet conditions under high pressure will continue with high confidence in most locations rebounding to at least 70 degrees today, about 15 degrees above normal. Tuesday and Tuesday Night: The aforementioned trough and fast-moving cold front still looks to primarily bring a high wind threat and fire weather concerns (*see separate fire discussion below*). So, kept the High Wind Watch going but did not add McCone county where a Lake Wind Advisory will currently be needed regardless.
341 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2023 1) Dry conditions with warmer temperatures expected today. Very little change to the upper pattern across the region over the next 24 hours, with the upper ridge axis located approximately along the UT and CO border. This high pressure will provide for plenty of sun, dry conditions and slightly warmer temps today for the forecast area, with highs climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s for the high valleys, and upper 60s to mid 70s for the plains. Overnight lows tonight should remain above freezing across the eastern plains.
439 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2023 WV imagery shows a strong upper level ridge across much of the western half of the country with a high centered near the four corner region. Otherwise, little dip in temperatures and a strengthening of the winds as the gradient tightens through the CWA with gusts up to 30 mph in the lower valleys and higher in the upper terrain areas. Once this system passes, the upper level ridge will again build back in across the CWA from the south with increasing convergence aloft. Warmer temperatures and relatively light winds remain for through the end of the business week and into the early parts of the weekend.
619 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 High pressure will build into the region today with sunshine, cool temps and breezy conditions.
814 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 An area of clear skies from Koochiching down into the Brainerd Lakes region has allowed rapid radiational cooling this morning with spots 10 degrees cooler than areas to the east.
633 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 A large upper level low pressure system will remain over the northeastern United States through Tuesday. High pressure builds in midweek with moderating temperatures afterwards. 8h temps around zero or so will be enough to bring some snowflakes to elevations above 4000kft and a dusting on the ground is likely in places like Beech Mtn, Mt Rogers and the highest terrain of Greenbrier County WV. Expect clouds to be persistent along/west of the Blue Ridge, with mix of sun and clouds east. Temperatures may struggle to reach the lower to mid 40s across the mountains of WV/SW VA and NC with the New River Valley making it around 50, with around 60 across the VA/NC piedmont.
320 AM PDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, and are around five degrees above normal for this time of year.
The focus for the heaviest rainfall will be Curry County and especially the coast ranges where orographic lift will be maximized for a few hours with the ridge to 700 mb flow shifting to the southwest at around 40 kt. The front will move away Monday night and high pressure will build in quickly on Tuesday.
It has been a very pleasant early fall day across the Florida Keys in the wake of the cold front passage. We will continue to enjoy post cold front bliss through Tuesday. High pressure that ushered in this cold front will shift east and settle along the Eastern Seaboard. The high will continue to drift eastward and flatten as it moves out across the North Atlantic.
High pressure over our area continues to provide very warm, yet mundane weather today. These highs are comparable to what we typically see the first week of June! The warmth is due to high pressure over the southwest United States. The high is over Arizona now, with a weak embedded low near northern Baja. This low will drift northward into the state by Tuesday, not really changing the temperatures much but pushing slightly higher moisture values up to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.
A cold front near the west coast will move inland this morning and move through SE Oregon late today and SW Idaho tonight. MVFR conditions possible in lowering ceilings and light precipitation mainly along a line from KBKE-KMYL aft 17/02z and lasting through sunrise Tuesday as a weak cold front slides through the region.
(This evening through Tuesday) A low pressure system will continue to the east through the short term. A tight pressure gradient will also be around this low with gusting winds possible of 15-20 mph across the entire state. As the low moves east tonight, dry air will advect into the state with clouds slowly clearing through the early morning. This northerly flow will bring cold air to the state with lows overnight in the low 40s, up to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
After a chilly night with light winds and strong radiational cooling, the return of light southerly winds on Tuesday will allow highs to be up to 10 degrees warmer than today. 05/Martello Previous Discussion: /Through Tuesday/ High pressure remains in full control to begin the workweek with mostly clear and dry weather prevailing. As high pressure begins shifting eastward tomorrow, southwest winds will resume locally, and this will cause a warming trend to ensue heading into the midweek period.
Overnight, westerly winds will be on the increase as a cold front associated with a North Pacific trough approaches from the west. Southwest to west winds are expected to gust up to 30 mph for locations in western Montana, and the higher terrain of Idaho and Clearwater counties in Idaho from Midnight to around sunrise Tuesday morning. A cooler airmass and a tightening westerly pressure gradient behind the front will aide in the development of stronger gusts from sunrise until around 4PM MST.
442 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Light precipitation along the North Carolina and Tennessee border including light snow at the highest elevations will diminish this evening and end around midnight.
1208 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (Today and tonight) A strong upper level ridge is currently firmly in place over the Southwestern U. Light winds through the overnight hours will gradually veer to the south with lows in the low to mid 40s.
1222 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Clear skies and highs in the low to mid 60s are still expected for this afternoon as a ridge continues to build into the region. High pressure will build into the region today with sunshine, cool temps and breezy conditions.
(This evening through Tuesday) High surface pressure settles across our area with our last day of below average temperatures as our upper flow transitions from an outgoing trough to an approaching ridge. South winds may start to pick up a few hours prior to sunrise, which may mix the air enough to maintain low temperatures well above freezing in the upper 30s to lower 40s. As our high pressure moves off to the southeast with a tightening pressure gradient across our area, south winds will increase becoming a bit breezy by Tuesday afternoon.
Key Point: * Low pressure remains dominant through Tuesday with showers and cooler temperatures. A broad upper level trough spans across the north eastern states with a strong short wave traveling along the western periphery of this system. A weak ridge begins to build at the surface toward Tuesday morning. This should dry the region out across the lowlands for the start of Tuesday with periodic light rain showers last through Tuesday evening before diminishing.
153 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Light precipitation along the North Carolina and Tennessee border including light snow at the highest elevations will diminish this evening and end around midnight.
1138 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Clear skies and highs in the low to mid 60s are still expected for this afternoon as a ridge continues to build into the region. High pressure will build into the region today with sunshine, cool temps and breezy conditions.
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night) A large upper level low over the eastern half of the CONUS has been the culprit in abundant cloud cover and light rain/drizzle today. A mix of clouds and sun is expected tomorrow which should allow for afternoon highs 6 to 8 degrees warmer than today.
High pressure moves in from the west by mid-week which will be accompanied by a slow warming trend along with dry weather.
(This evening through Tuesday night) Today and Tuesday will see mainly a transitory ridge passing over the region brining fair weather and warming temperatures. However, embedded within the upper level flow is a short wave trough that will eject into the plains on Tuesday.
The clouds will help temperatures from bottoming out, remaining in the lower to middle 40s. The sunshine that appears will allow temperatures to be a little warmer than today, with highs in the 50s north east to lower 60s southwest.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) A mild and dry northwesterly flow currently prevails over SFL as high pressure over the Central US builds eastward and low pressure over the northeast shifts out to sea. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 50s with lower 60s generally confined to the warmer spots of the east coast metro.
1206 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (Today through Tuesday) RAP analysis early this morning depicts an amplified H5 pattern with TX situated between a western CONUS ridge and an eastern CONUS trough. At the surface, high pressure is dominating from TX to the Dakotas and into Canada. Many Texans will find the mornings a tad chilly, with lows today in the low to mid 40s north and low 50s south, and even cooler tomorrow in most areas with efficient radiational cooling allowing some locations to dip into the low 40s.
BB/03 (Now through Tuesday) A rather large positively tilted upper trof over the eastern half of the CONUS, including the Gulf, weakens a bit through Tuesday and becomes oriented mainly over the East Coast states. Highs today will be cool and in the mid to upper 60s, then highs on Tuesday will be a bit warmer and range from the upper 60s well inland to the lower 70s elsewhere.
Expect likely the coolest night of the week tonight with lows dropping into the low to mid 40s across most of the area.