Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(The rest of this afternoon / Tonight ) Cold front currently pushing into southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas this afternoon.
316 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 Low level ridging will expand across Lower Mi tonight and will force a north-northwesterly wind field across Se Mi. This confluence across the Great Lakes will be within the base of an eastern Canadian upper low.
A ridge of high pressure building in tonight will support very light winds and clear skies this evening and overnight. The sfc cold front now moving into metro Detroit will exit the forecast area within the next couple hours. This will be the warmest part of the day with temperatures quickly plummeting as a cold front sweeps through the region between now and mid day from northwest to southeast. The clearing skies and lingering thermal trough set up a chilly night for southeast Michigan with lows dipping into the upper 20s for most locations.
The front will continue through the state Saturday, with dry air advecting top down through the atmosphere with the low levels remaining with plenty of moisture for clouds through the early afternoon.
- Dry and warmer than normal high temperatures through Saturday. The surface map shows the weak trough across eastern ND and our northern counties this afternoon, with the area of high pressure over IA continuing to extend a ridge over the rest of SD. The ridge will exit east through the day, as low pressure organizes to our west.
Saturday, temperatures are forecast to remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal across the state as an upper level ridge traverses the Northern Plains. Winds will remain fairly light as the upper level ridge passes resulting in weak winds aloft.
1153 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2023 With high pressure over the Tri State region this afternoon, skies remain sunny area-wide with a current wide range in temperatures from the 40s through the lower 60s. The latest RAP40 500mb analysis is showing NW flow aloft as an amplified ridge currently sits over the central Rockies. Short term guidance does carry this ridge eastward overnight, with the ridge axis along/east of the CWA by Saturday afternoon allowing for SW flow aloft. At the surface, the aforementioned trough digging southeast into the region this afternoon is running into the ridge extending into the central/northern Plains. The wind shift with the trough and its gradient will slowly erode going into this evening with eventually a weak westerly flow for most overnight. Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s into the lower 30s.
(Now through Saturday) A large upper trough move eastward over eastern states through the period. This system will send a weak cold front through the forecast late tonight and Saturday morning. A northerly surface flow prevails over the area through the period, and progressively drier deep layer air is expected to flow into the region tonight into Saturday with the passage of the upper trough.
627 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 The cold front has cleared Middle Tennessee, although surface winds are still quite variable. A cooler, northwest flow is closing in behind now and the radar is still showing a few narrow bands of mainly light showers. By morning, temperatures will have settled in the 40s, which is 10-20 degrees cooler than this morning's low readings.
Temperatures will drop into the mid-upper 30s and lower 40s overnight, with perhaps a few isolated spots in far northeast OK flirting with freezing temperatures by sunrise Saturday.
An approaching low pressure system is beginning to spread some mainly light to moderate showers inland over central California, with some thunderstorms noted off the coast. Additional precipitation will overspread our area through tonight as the low pressure system advances. Showers will continue through Saturday night as the trough axis pushes through the region. Amounts increase to around one half inch farther north, and around one inch in the higher elevations up to the snow line at around 8000 ft. Snow accumulations will mostly be moderate, but some of the highest elevations have a potential to receive around one foot.
603 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) The region has seen some warmer conditions with just a few peaks of sunshine today. Looking upstream, a weak cold front and parent upper level trough will begin to move toward our region late tonight and early Saturday.
139 PM PST Fri Nov 17 2023 An area of low pressure will move inland over California through Saturday.
851 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 A cold front will move through this evening. Cooler and drier conditions will then be in place for the weekend. Based on most recent observations, the cold front is continuing to work its way southeast through our CWA and will soon have moved through the entire CWA. This, combined with the blast of fresh cold air advection, will aid overnight low temperatures to fall into the low 30s, possibly upper 20s in spots. Previous discussion-> The cold front is just starting to work through the region. With a cooler airmass in place high temperatures will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Saturday night will be around or just below freezing.
Stable conditions and strengthening inversions under high pressure continue into Saturday. Things begin changing Saturday night as an upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest.
Upper level low west of the central California coast will lift north into interior northern California and open up into a wave through Saturday, as negatively tilted trough moving into the Pac NW picks it up. Increase in precip amounts has raised snowfall forecast above 6500 feet op 1 to 4 inches at pass level over interstate 80 and highway 50 with up to a foot over the higher peaks and Lassen Park and have issued a winter weather advisory from 4pm to 4am, best snow chances from 7pm to 1am.
623 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Key Message: Widespread rain expected this evening with an incoming cold front. Clouds will begin to clear out late tonight as winds shift to W-NW behind the cold frontal passage, creating a downslope flow off the Plateau.
The low-level vorticity analyses from CIMMS suggest there is a narrow lobe of cyclonic curvature pivoting through the Keys this evening. Overnight lows should fall into the lower 70s, with radiational cooling less likely tonight. Light to gentle northwest breezes will freshen Saturday as high pressure slowly moves eastward from the Midwest to the central Appalachians.
503 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) An upper ridge extends from Mexico up across NM, CO, WY into MT as the next upper low spins along the CA coast. This low will open into a trough as it moves ashore tonight passing across the Great Basin Saturday. A cold front blew into the area this morning and continues to push south toward the Rio Grande this afternoon. Lows a bit warmer Saturday night.
600 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Tonight and Tomorrow: As a weak cold front moves through the area this overnight expect cooler temperatures as they will range from high 40s to high 50s north to south. With the airmass change comes cooler temperatures and a northerly wind shift. Behind the front high pressure will move into the area limiting cloud cover and ending rain chances through the near term.
Tonight and Saturday High pressure remains firmly in control of the weather across eastern Idaho this afternoon. Skies will begin to cloud up as well and by midday Saturday, we'll likely see some isolated/scattered rain showers across the higher terrain of the central mountains and eastern highlands.
Expect mainly rain for the lower elevations of eastern Utah and western Colorado with several inches of snow in the mountains. The cellular nature of showers along with subtle instability aloft may also lead to the low/medium potential for a few thunderstorms.
An upper level low pressure system over the offshore waters will reach northern California tonight and Saturday morning. The low will result in increasing showers including a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, tonight and Saturday.
643 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 (Rest of today through Saturday) An upper level trough positioned over the entire Florida peninsula is gradually pushing off towards the northeast, with dry air filtering in behind it over South Florida. For Saturday, a very weak cold front is expected to sweep through the peninsula, reinforcing the drier air mass over the CWA. Expect highs in the lower 80s across the area for Friday and Saturday with lows in the 60s area-wide.
747 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 A cold front will move through this evening. Cooler and drier conditions will then be in place for the weekend. The cold front is just starting to work through the region. With a cooler airmass in place high temperatures will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Saturday night will be around or just below freezing.
530 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (The rest of this afternoon / Tonight ) Cold front currently pushing into southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas this afternoon.
A mid and upper level short wave trough will move east across the Panhandles Saturday night. The quality of the low level moisture may be in question at first. But it looks like the low level moisture will get back just in time to produce the showers and thunderstorms.
(This evening through Saturday night) The region has seen some warmer conditions with just a few peaks of sunshine today. Looking upstream, a weak cold front and parent upper level trough will begin to move toward our region late tonight and early Saturday.
508 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) A cold front over northwest Arkansas will sweep thru the forecast area tonight, as a northwesterly flow persists aloft. The cooler and drier air behind the front, along with clearing skies, will allow temperatures to drop into the 30's across the north tonight, with 40's elsewhere. High temperatures tomorrow will be a little cooler.
High pressure and dry air settling into the region keep plenty of sunshine and dry weather through the end of the short term period.
A few sites across the southwest and south central could see lows in the lower 30s. Saturday, temperatures are forecast to remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal across the state as an upper level ridge traverses the Northern Plains. Winds will remain fairly light as the upper level ridge passes resulting in weak winds aloft.
Low level ridging will expand across Lower Mi tonight and will force a north-northwesterly wind field across Se Mi. This confluence across the Great Lakes will be within the base of an eastern Canadian upper low.
509 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Cooler and drier air will continue to filter into southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, late this afternoon and tonight, in the wake of a frontal passage.
Late tonight through Saturday morning will see the highest chances for showers, with lingering activity through the afternoon.
* Clear, calm, and cold tonight * Sunny, a little breezy, and warmer Saturday Tonight, high pressure will be over the region bringing clear skies and light winds to the area. Saturday, the high will move southeast of the area which will allow a mild SW flow to develop.
1116 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 9 PM CDT surface map shows a cold front south of a line from Jonesboro to Blytheville to Union City and Paris. South of the cold front, light northerly or calm surface winds prevailed. The prefrontal airmass and clearing skies will translate south, ahead of the advancing cold front. In TN, drier air behind the cold front will clear the fog quite abruptly.
Torgerson Ridging over the region will bring warm conditions through Saturday. A trof moving in from the southwest will bring increasing clouds and a chance for light snow over the southwest mountains Saturday night.
Much of the area remains in the low-mid 20s at the time of this product, but we will trend above normal on temperatures today. High pressure passes through our south today, leaving us with beautiful weather. Much of tonight will be similar to the previous night, but a little milder, as warm advection has pulled in warmer temperatures.
1157 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) The region has seen some warmer conditions with just a few peaks of sunshine today. Looking upstream, a weak cold front and parent upper level trough will begin to move toward our region late tonight and early Saturday.
929 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 9 PM CDT surface map shows a cold front south of a line from Jonesboro to Blytheville to Union City and Paris. South of the cold front, light northerly or calm surface winds prevailed. The prefrontal airmass and clearing skies will translate south, ahead of the advancing cold front. In TN, drier air behind the cold front will clear the fog quite abruptly.
Meanwhile to our north and west, a weak cold front is slowly inching its way closer to our region. 12KM NAM forecast soundings suggest even cloudier and cooler conditions than currently predicted. So it is possible tomorrow could feature more clouds and cooler temperatures than our current forecast suggests, especially if these recent trends have anything to say about it. But for now, we will go with a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the low/mid 70s which is slightly cooler than the general model consensus.
1159 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 The cold front has cleared Middle Tennessee, although surface winds are still quite variable. A cooler, northwest flow is closing in behind now and the radar is still showing a few narrow bands of mainly light showers. By morning, temperatures will have settled in the 40s, which is 10-20 degrees cooler than this morning's low readings.
1235 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2023 A cold front will move through this evening. Cooler and drier conditions will then be in place for the weekend. Based on most recent observations, the cold front is continuing to work its way southeast through our CWA and will soon have moved through the entire CWA. This, combined with the blast of fresh cold air advection, will aid overnight low temperatures to fall into the low 30s, possibly upper 20s in spots. Previous discussion-> The cold front is just starting to work through the region. With a cooler airmass in place high temperatures will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Saturday night will be around or just below freezing.
Some models, the NAM and ECMWF in particular, try to introduce some rain showers across our northern zones later tonight into mid tomorrow morning ahead of the upper trough.
329 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2023 Surface analysis this morning features an elongated high pressure ridge extending from the southern Plains up into Quebec. Throughout the day, the overhead portion of this ridge axis will be pinched off in favor of a clipper system traversing the Canadian provinces within the broader troughing pattern aloft. Meanwhile, southeast Michigan holds firmly underneath the outer edge of the thermal trough.
The latest model data remains unchanged in timing the progression of precipitation and trailing cold front across SE Oregon and SW Idaho late Sat/Sun.
will induce a lee pressure trough over eastern Colorado and New Mexico by midday.
237 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 High pressure will be in place this weekend providing fair weather conditions across central Illinois.
1121 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) A cold front over northwest Arkansas will sweep thru the forecast area tonight, as a northwesterly flow persists aloft. The cooler and drier air behind the front, along with clearing skies, will allow temperatures to drop into the 30's across the north tonight, with 40's elsewhere. High temperatures tomorrow will be a little cooler.
Presence of surface ridging will afford lighter winds from the northwest overnight. * None Low level ridging will expand across Lower Mi tonight and will force a north-northwesterly wind field across Se Mi. This confluence across the Great Lakes will be within the base of an eastern Canadian upper low.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s across the region.
1059 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) An upper ridge extends from Mexico up across NM, CO, WY into MT as the next upper low spins along the CA coast. This low will open into a trough as it moves ashore tonight passing across the Great Basin Saturday. A cold front blew into the area this morning and continues to push south toward the Rio Grande this afternoon. Lows a bit warmer Saturday night.
254 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2023 Cooler and drier conditions will then be in place for the weekend. High pressure drifts into the Ohio Valley today, supplying dry air and light northerly flow. The high pressure shifts deeper into the Ohio Valley, allowing a gradual shift in winds from northerly to more westerly. Temperatures are limited for the afternoon due to the cooler air advecting in from the north. High temperatures struggle to climb out of the 40s, into the lower 50s for some locations. High pressure is well established across the Ohio Valley overnight, continuing to provide dry conditions and mostly clear skies.
Not unlike yesterday, this is likely to continue until a couple hours after sunrise, when daytime heating and increasing winds should help erode any fog and mix the low clouds higher. Weak, broad surface ridging builds back in as the upper-level flow flattens out temporarily.
(Today and tonight) Key Message: Light rain is coming to an end this morning leading into cooler weather today. Clear skies will also lead to a much colder night tonight with lows dropping down into the 30s across most of the eastern Tennessee Valley, and near freezing in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia.
906 PM PST Fri Nov 17 2023 An upper level low pressure system over the offshore waters will reach northern California tonight and Saturday morning. The low will result in increasing showers including a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, tonight and Saturday.
1002 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (Issued 958 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023) No major changes to the going forecast as high pressure moves through the region.
1236 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2023 (Rest of today through Saturday) An upper level trough positioned over the entire Florida peninsula is gradually pushing off towards the northeast, with dry air filtering in behind it over South Florida. For Saturday, a very weak cold front is expected to sweep through the peninsula, reinforcing the drier air mass over the CWA. Expect highs in the lower 80s across the area for Friday and Saturday with lows in the 60s area-wide.
409 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer than normal high temperatures continue through Sunday. Upper ridging and weak sfc flow will keep the region dry today with highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal for mid November. The ridge will shift east on Sunday as it is pushed out by an upper low. While caa is expected to come in with the upper trough, H85 temps in most model members remain above +5C, so only rain is forecast at this time.
Slightly cooler air moves in tonight with low temps getting down into the 40s and lower 50s, but high temps rebound back into the 60s and 70s for Sun. A weak area of high pressure builds in across the region Sunday keeping things dry through Sunday evening.
518 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 High pressure will be in place this weekend providing fair weather conditions across central Illinois. Expect highs in the lower to mid 50s today and mid to upper 50s Sunday.
602 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 (Today through Sunday) A cold front moved through Middle Tennessee last evening. Now, north winds were bringing dry and cooler air. This will feel much cooler than recent days, but it is spot-on average for this time of year. Dry high pressure will be directly over the area tonight and Sunday. Temps will warm into the lower 60s for most of us on Sunday.
Lows fall into the 20s tonight, but will be warmer Sunday night as cloud cover works into the area.
(Today through Sunday) A cold front moved through Middle Tennessee last evening. Now, north winds were bringing dry and cooler air. This will feel much cooler than recent days, but it is spot-on average for this time of year. Dry high pressure will be directly over the area tonight and Sunday. Temps will warm into the lower 60s for most of us on Sunday.
This is most exaggerated in the far eastern Permian Basin as low clouds are set to keep a lid on insolation through the late morning/early afternoon where high temperatures should stay in the low 60s. Looking aloft, in addition to pushing out our upper ridge, a weak disturbance moving in this evening may support an isolated shower/thunderstorm or two out west.
A low pressure system pushes inland this morning. The low will result in increasing showers including a some chances of thunderstorms through.
Robust cold front moves thru the region beginning this evening, bringing strong winds and light valley snow tonight.
Forecast Details: Southwest to west winds will pick up a bit today, due to a moderate pressure gradient between low pressure moving through northern Ontario and high pressure to our south. High pressure will dominate tonight into Sunday, with dry weather continuing. Winds will veer from north to east on Sunday, resulting in slightly cooler high temperatures in the 40s to around 50 range.
(Now through Sunday) A large upper trof over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic during the period as a broad upper trof evolves mostly over the central states. A weak cold front moves through the area today and ushers drier air into the region. A light northerly flow continues to prevail over the area through Sunday morning, with a weak easterly to southerly flow developing Sunday afternoon as a low pressure system develops over the south central states. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 70s, then highs on Sunday will be a bit cooler and range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Lows tonight mostly range from the lower 40s inland to the upper 40s at the coast.
353 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 High pressure ridge aloft to bring mainly clear skies, dry conditions, and mild temperatures today. Ridge to our west will then push through today. This ridge continues to push eastward tonight, continuing clear skies and light winds. As the ridge exits a light southerly wind could develop, this could limit the patchy fog potential. Mild temperatures look to start the week, followed by cooler and breezy conditions. Ridge moves east Sunday leaving a weak split flow pattern in its wake. A more organized upper low to our south could increase cloud cover through the day. Temperatures look to be slightly cooler yet mild in the 40s to lower 50s.
621 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2023 (Today through Sunday) A longwave trough axis over the eastern United States will move across the peninsula of Florida today into early Sunday. While deep layer moisture is not as present to support large amounts of convection, there could be enough moisture coincident with the trough to spur some additional cloud cover and possibly some showers closer to the surface moisture provided by the Atlantic waters. By midday Sunday, the trough axis is to the east over the Bahamas and drier air again becomes well-established in the atmospheric column across South Florida to limit cloud coverage and convection.
High pressure ridge aloft to bring mainly clear skies, dry conditions, and mild temperatures today. Ridge to our west will then push through today. This ridge continues to push eastward tonight, continuing clear skies and light winds. As the ridge exits a light southerly wind could develop, this could limit the patchy fog potential. Mild temperatures look to start the week, followed by cooler and breezy conditions. Ridge moves east Sunday leaving a weak split flow pattern in its wake. A more organized upper low to our south could increase cloud cover through the day. Temperatures look to be slightly cooler yet mild in the 40s to lower 50s.