Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
519 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance - Chance of light freezing drizzle northwest of a line from Wautoma to Waupaca to Niagara late tonight into Friday morning.
A low pressure system will move inland to the south of our area tonight and Friday.
916 PM EST Thu Dec 21 2023 High pressure will remain in control through the end of the week.
Broad high pressure over the eastern seaboard will dominate the weather through the night. High pressure over the eastern seaboard ridges over Florida producing rain-free conditions through the weekend. An area of low pressure and associated cold front will move through the eastern gulf waters on Christmas Day bringing a shift in the winds to the south- southeast and scattered showers and isolated storms to the area.
1000 PM EST Thu Dec 21 2023 Expansive high pressure centered over northern Quebec will extend southwards across our region through Friday.
Southerly flow will begin to build in by Christmas Day, pulling warmer, moister air back the the region.
Valley highs today will be in the mid 60s with overnight/morning lows in the low to upper 40s. The high pressure ridge responsible for the aforementioned dry weather, will also bring about decreased wind and clear skies through the overnight hours this week. A weak cold front will push through the area on Friday bringing the chance for sprinkles over Shasta County, but little to no impacts are expected.
(This afternoon through Friday) High pressure remains centered over the CWA through the short term outlook. Have kept dewpoints low at the higher elevations today and tomorrow due to the dry layer present in this morning's sounding. Also went for the lower end of dewpoints across Central GA this afternoon in line with yesterday's performance. Lows tonight and tomorrow night may not drop below freezing for much of the area, however low-lying areas may see freezing temperatures and cold-air funneling with the light winds. Have elected to not included frost in the forecast, however low lying open areas may see lows at or just below freezing.
Weak isentropic ascent ahead of this wave has led to spotty light rainfall mainly across portions of central and northeastern Missouri today, and I expect the chance for sporadic light rain to continue through the evening into the overnight hours as the low-level jet gradually intensifies over the Lower Missouri Valley.
620 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a low pressure system off the coast of California will continue to push a few disturbances across the area through the period along with Pacific moisture. At the lower levels, a persistent weak to moderate onshore flow will increase moisture transport into the region, which combined with the passing of the upper level weaknesses and some isentropic upglide will result in low to medium rainfall chances (20-50%) for South Texas through Friday night. Overnight lows will range in the low to mid 60s both tonight and Friday night, with highs on Friday reaching into the low to mid 70s.
503 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 (The rest of this afternoon ) Mild and breezy conditions continue this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the lower 60s across portions of the area despite the extensive cloud cover. The unseasonable mild weather will continue through the holiday weekend ahead of stronger upper level low, currently located off the southern CA coast.
An active weather pattern returns to northern Arizona to end this week bringing breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and widespread rain and mountain snow.
336 PM MST Thu Dec 21 2023 Through Friday the forecast remains simple, mostly dry, warm, and quiet thanks to dirty ridging. The pattern starts to get interesting this weekend as a cut-off low gets pulled up from the southwest near the US/Mexico border toward the central rockies. This is a result of a trough/upper-low diving down from the PACNW. This is a tricky forecast, because much will be determined by the strength and location of the cut-off low. It no longer looks like two upper-lows combining into a strong upper-low, instead it looks more like the southern cut-off low gets absorbed into the upper-level flow and weakens. The result is a skinny trough, with forcing spread out over a long distance.
547 PM EST Thu Dec 21 2023 High pressure into Friday night as temperatures moderate.
631 PM EST Thu Dec 21 2023 Dry high pressure will linger over the region through the weekend and maintain above normal temperatures.
A pattern change is anticipated tomorrow as a cold front slowly makes its way across Arkansas and Missouri, bringing with it a return of rain chances.
Freezing drizzle is possible (20 to 40%) north of I 94 tonight.
Most locations in southern Lower MI should stay above freezing. This should be rain or drizzle, but surface temps and dew points are marginal enough across the northeast interior zones to have mention a period of freezing rain or drizzle there Friday morning. No travel impacts are expected as skin temps should be above freezing shortly after the onset of steady precip. The current forecast calls for three days in a row of highs in the low to mid 50s beginning Christmas Eve. Across the Central Plains, a deepening trough on Christmas Day may end up pinching off a closed upper low across the Midwest by late Christmas or on the 26th. A prolonged period of rain showers may occur starting Christmas night and lasting for a few days as this upper level low meanders eastward.
642 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 (This afternoon through Friday) High pressure centered to the northeast of AL will slowly meander to the east through the short term. Light winds out of the east today will keep the lower levels quite dry. Slightly warmer air will begin to advect with moisture and PW values slowly increasing.
As a result, we should remain around or just above the freezing mark in most locations as lows drop into the low to mid 30s by early Friday morning.
Weak ridging sets up over the InterMountain West tomorrow with northwest flow over the Central High Plains and High Plains regions. High temperatures will range from the low 50s in the east to the upper 50s in the west.
539 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Tonight and Friday: Dry weather will continue through the period and temperatures will be warmer than normal. The mid level ridging over our region this afternoon will continue shifting east through Friday as well. The increase in mid and high level clouds tonight will help hold temperatures warmer than normal and despite the increased cloud cover Friday temperatures will top out warmer than normal.
833 PM EST Thu Dec 21 2023 High pressure into Friday night as temperatures moderate.
With some breaks in the clouds at times today, it will be seasonably warm with a trend toward warmer conditions tonight especially west of I-55 as weak warm advection ensues.
234 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 High pressure continues into tonight amid a gradual warming trend.
1054 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 (This afternoon through Friday) High pressure centered to the northeast of AL will slowly meander to the east through the short term. Light winds out of the east today will keep the lower levels quite dry. Slightly warmer air will begin to advect with moisture and PW values slowly increasing.
An active weather pattern returns to northern Arizona to end this week, bringing breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and widespread rain and mountain snow.
A dry day and night expected with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and slightly warmer temperatures. The southern valley where it is more clear, temps are around freezing, while to the north, temperatures are in the upper 30s to low 40s. It'll generally be a nice day with slightly warmer temperatures, low humidity values, and light winds. Tonight will be much of the same with low temperatures a bit warmer overnight.
302 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 Dry high pressure lingers throughout the weekend and maintains above normal temperatures.
310 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 Dry high pressure lingers throughout the weekend and maintains above normal temperatures.
From synopsis, high pressure will remains parked over the Eastern Seaboard overnight, promoting fresh to occasionally strong northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys. As the area of high pressure weakens slightly and slides northeastward late in the week through the weekend, breezes will modestly slacken.
1121 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Tonight and Friday: Dry weather will continue through the period and temperatures will be warmer than normal. The mid level ridging over our region this afternoon will continue shifting east through Friday as well. The increase in mid and high level clouds tonight will help hold temperatures warmer than normal and despite the increased cloud cover Friday temperatures will top out warmer than normal.
1244 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 High pressure into Friday night as temperatures moderate.
This continues as the low-level ENE flow also advects some clouds into the region from the Atlantic.
1110 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a low pressure system off the coast of California will continue to push a few disturbances across the area through the period along with Pacific moisture. At the lower levels, a persistent weak to moderate onshore flow will increase moisture transport into the region, which combined with the passing of the upper level weaknesses and some isentropic upglide will result in low to medium rainfall chances (20-50%) for South Texas through Friday night. Overnight lows will range in the low to mid 60s both tonight and Friday night, with highs on Friday reaching into the low to mid 70s.
1235 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 Dry high pressure will linger over the region through the weekend and maintain above normal temperatures.
1034 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance - Chance of light freezing drizzle northwest of a line from Wautoma to Waupaca to Niagara late tonight into Friday morning.
A cold front will be accompanied by enough wind and colder air aloft to break up the inversion Friday night. Expect improving conditions in the valleys Friday afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold front, while areas of mountain obscuration develop in precipitation. A Pacific cold front will bring widespread MVFR/IFR in valley rain and mountain snow late Friday afternoon through Friday night.
1045 PM EST Thu Dec 21 2023 Dry high pressure will linger over the region through the weekend and maintain above normal temperatures.
1238 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 Broad high pressure centered over northern Quebec will extend southwards across our region through Friday.
Not concerned about dense fog at this time, with the low clouds expected. There is a small chance, around 15 percent, for some light freezing drizzle to occur in northwestern parts of Marquette County, if wet bulb temperatures can get to freezing. More steady rain is expected Friday afternoon and night, with the low level jet transporting more moisture and warm air advection into the area.
921 PM MST Thu Dec 21 2023 Through Friday the forecast remains simple, mostly dry, warm, and quiet thanks to dirty ridging. The pattern starts to get interesting this weekend as a cut-off low gets pulled up from the southwest near the US/Mexico border toward the central rockies. This is a result of a trough/upper-low diving down from the PACNW. This is a tricky forecast, because much will be determined by the strength and location of the cut-off low. It no longer looks like two upper-lows combining into a strong upper-low, instead it looks more like the southern cut-off low gets absorbed into the upper-level flow and weakens. The result is a skinny trough, with forcing spread out over a long distance.
148 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 High pressure continues into tonight amid a gradual warming trend.
A deeper trough was along the West Coast with an embedded upper low southwest of San Diego. At the surface, high pressure was centered over West Virginia, with low pressure over Nebraska. There was a cold front from the Nebraska low into west Texas.
941 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 Dry high pressure lingers throughout the weekend and maintains above normal temperatures.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Moisture has been pooling over the region ahead of an incoming upper level trough and it's leading to a few spots across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin to have reduced visibility. It won't be until early Saturday morning that precipitation chances start to increase as the upper low skirts just north of our area.
The fog may be slow to dissipate Saturday AM due to the low late December sun angle and light surface winds, leading to minimal boundary layer mixing.
This disturbance will bring cooler temperatures and accumulating snow to Southwest through North Central Montana on Saturday, with the highest snowfall accumulations being focused to the mountains of Southwest Montana on Saturday morning.
Persistent lake-augmented stratus deck lingers today in spite of a ridge axis translating across Lower Michigan above the 850 mb level.
226 AM MST Fri Dec 22 2023 Will maintain some patchy morning freezing fog in the northeast where lingering snow cover melted yesterday. Upper ridge will bring one more day of very warm and dry weather today. The system will bring a 20 to 60 percent probability of a rain and snow mix with the highest chances being near Winnett and lowest chances being in the northeast corner of the state.
Several RAWS sites above 3000 ft (Brasstown & Neel's Gap) were still sampling this airmass this morning with relative humidity values in the lower 20s and teens. For Tonight & Saturday: A trough taking shape over the Plains will allow low level southeasterly flow to continue in Georgia, resulting in continued low level moisture and warm air advection. High temperatures in the 60s can be expected for all but the higher elevations (above 2500 ft) of the north Georgia mountains Saturday afternoon.
Although it is weakening, surface ridging continues across E Conus.
906 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 A few quick showers were observed during the mid morning hours around Miami and West Dade areas, but for the most part, generally dry conditions should prevail across SoFlo today, driven by dominating high pressure over the region. High temps will continue to remain in the low-mid 70s. (Today through Saturday) To end the week, the lingering body of high pressure begins to shift slightly to the east, before the true atmospheric progression begins over the holiday weekend.
Areas of dense fog will be possible in the overnight and morning hours through the weekend as upper level ridging sets up over the region.
A strong cold front will move through eastern Idaho overnight tonight and produce some mainly light snowfall which may impact travel for a brief period late tonight and Saturday morning.
635 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 - Areas of dense fog, drizzle, and a slight chance (10-20%) of freezing drizzle this morning.
However, overnight tonight as the low propagates eastward and general sinking motion becomes prominent, expecting lowering clouds and more widespread fog to develop. Fog will linger into Saturday before lifting into a low cloud deck and potentially developing drizzle and light rain showers once again as WAA aloft kicks in ahead of the next low pressure system. Temperatures will remain above normal through Saturday night, with highs in the lower 40s today and upper 40s on Saturday.
Brief mid level ridging will pass overhead keeping us dry and advecting some warmer temperatures into our area. Temperatures on Saturday will be a hair warmer than Friday with many locations (especially those south of I- 70) reaching into the lower 60s.
(Today through Saturday) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level low inching into frame along the West Coast as our next disturbance, aided by a ~120 knot jet streak, rides along the northern periphery of a weak ridge over southern Mexico.
416 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 High pressure builds in through Friday night, then slides offshore through Saturday.
621 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 Dry high pressure lingers throughout the weekend and maintains above normal temperatures.
641 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 High pressure builds in through tonight, then slides offshore through Saturday.
Upper ridging across the central CONUS will continue the dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures today. At the surface, high pressure sits across the Dakotas. Both the cutoff low and upper trough will move onshore later today, and push across the Rockies on Saturday.
508 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Moisture has been pooling over the region ahead of an incoming upper level trough and it's leading to a few spots across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin to have reduced visibility. It won't be until early Saturday morning that precipitation chances start to increase as the upper low skirts just north of our area.
540 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 (Today through Saturday) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level low inching into frame along the West Coast as our next disturbance, aided by a ~120 knot jet streak, rides along the northern periphery of a weak ridge over southern Mexico.
617 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 (Today through Saturday) To end the week, the lingering body of high pressure begins to shift slightly to the east, before the true atmospheric progression begins over the holiday weekend.
557 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 - Areas of dense fog, drizzle, and a slight chance (10-20%) of freezing drizzle this morning.
626 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 High pressure ridges south into the local area from Canada and New England into the weekend, keeping dry weather in place, along with a slow warming trend.
Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 40s for southeast Georgia and int the lower to mid 50s for northeast Florida.
1213 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 High pressure ridges south into the local area from Canada and New England into the weekend, keeping dry weather in place, along with a slow warming trend.
Onshore flow coupled with a moist airmass in the lower levels (below 700 mb) has led to the continued development of low- topped showers across the local Atlantic waters. Afternoon highs in the low 70s, which is right around normal for this time of year based on climatology.
(Through Saturday) Zonal flow in place currently will be replaced with mid-level ridging tomorrow. As our next frontal system continues to develop over the central Plains, and ridging quickly moves eastward, we'll begin to see an increase in cloud cover late tomorrow afternoon. Expect overnight lows tonight in the mid to upper 40s with daytime highs tomorrow in the low 70s.
240 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 High pressure continues into tonight amid a gradual warming trend. With very dry airmass at the low level, first precipitation will struggle to reach the ground as the system approaches, while few sprinkles will be possible tonight. Lows tonight will be not as cold as last night, but still at or above the freezing mark in the mid to lower 30s. Deep southwest flow will bring WAA allowing temperatures to rise into the mid 50s for the lowlands and 40s to low 50s along the mountains.
1023 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 High pressure builds in through tonight, then slides offshore through Saturday.
but overall expect extensive low cloud cover to persist as the lower levels remain saturated. Still expect highs to top out in upper 50s/ lower 60s with many locations currently in the lower-mid 50s as of writing.
Due to the low sun angle and a day removed from the Winter Solstice (shortest day of the year) It may take longer for lingering patches of fog to dissipate.
An active weather pattern returns to northern Arizona starting today, bringing breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and widespread rain and mountain snow.
An upper level low over southern California is edging eastward today, with strong southerly flow ahead of the system bringing increasing moisture to west central Texas. As the upper low makes its way toward west Texas tomorrow, rain and thunderstorms will develop out west and head eastward toward the area by the afternoon. (Saturday night through next Friday) The upper level low over the southwestern U.
1218 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 High pressure builds in through tonight, then slides offshore through Saturday.
(This evening through Saturday night) Not much in the way of weather concerns through the short term as weak upper ridging traverses the area tonight and Saturday. During the day Saturday, an upper low in the southern stream currently located near southern California is expected to open up and become phased with a deepening upper trough in the northern stream. The longer wave trough will continue to move eastward and should be moving into the midwest by Saturday night. A tightening surface pressure gradient between high pressure over the east coast and developing low pressure near the Texas coast will strengthen onshore winds and help bring moisture back into the area.
Moisture advection will amplify and deepen overnight as a low level jet unfolds downstream of an upper low currently over northern Baja. This layer could easily drizzle out at times and keep the advection fog from becoming too dense, but considering dewpoints will be rising into the lower 50s it seems prudent to keep some fog mention through the morning. The next round of precip will accompany the onset of stronger height falls and an upper jet core later in the afternoon as the upper low lifts across northern NM. The only forecast changes involved raising lows a bit over the NBM tonight while keeping tomorrow's highs closer to the cooler MOS numbers given thick clouds, fog and precip.
High pressure centered over the Saint Lawrence valley this evening will give way a wavy frontal boundary later tonight through the first half of the weekend. High pressure centered over the St Lawrence valley this evening will gradually push east during the course of tonight. A weak warm frontal boundary.
Even with less cloud cover tonight, low temperatures will trend upward, ranging from the mid 30s to the lower 40s in most locales.
(Rest of today through Saturday) Models depict broad high pressure over the region slowly migrating eastward during the next couple of days.
256 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 A weak trough of low pressure will bring some rain to the area beginning early Saturday morning.
A cold front will be pushing through the Northern Rockies this evening and overnight. This front will bring a burst of snow in the higher terrain this evening, especially along the Montana/Idaho border. The valleys will receive a wintry mix of rain, snow and maybe even a short period of freezing rain, due to strong valley inversions linger until the frontal passage. The high resolution models are indicating that the cold front intensifies and consolidates over Lemhi County into southwest Montana after midnight tonight.
As the system departs a ridge looks to build into the state.
Like we have been mentioning the last few days our next cold front and showers chances will unfortunately be on Christmas day. Either way this will be a weakening cold front and I wouldn't expect a washout for Christmas day. As we start our shortened work week the weakening cold front will stall across the area keeping cloud cover and chances of rain in the forecast.
The cold front that will help scour out the inversion later this afternoon, is progressing across the Cascades at this time. Expect improving conditions in the valleys Friday afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold front, while areas of mountain obscuration develop in precipitation. A Pacific cold front will bring widespread precipitation early Saturday morning, with conditions improving behind the front by Saturday afternoon, but expect breezy W-NW winds through the Snake River Valley.