Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We're sitting under high pressure for a while with the main highlights over the region being the temperatures as north flow off Canada has ushered in some fairly cold air. Moving into mid week the strong upper ridge will move inland over the area with temperatures moderating a bit and no weather to speak of.
This warming trend then continues through the rest of the week as the upper pattern becomes more zonal and eventually an upper ridge moves overhead.
546 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 (Today) Light showers continue to track east through the area early this morning as a cold front nears the area. Guidance has trended a little stronger with the influence of high pressure over the upper Midwest, and pushes the front through most of our area by late this afternoon.
Northern flow out of the arctic will slowly shift to the northwest as the upper ridge over the eastern Pacific moves east. A front drops out of Canada today opening up a weak chinook with warmer air moving south from Alberta.
937 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 A stationary front to the north today will push southward as a cold front tonight, passing through late tonight into Tuesday morning. The front will sink slowly southward into mid week as high pressure builds from the west.
532 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Kansas will remain in west-southwest flow aloft early this week, situated between a northern branch upper trof over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and southern branch trof settling from southern California into the northern Baja region.
Periodic MVFR ceilings through most of the day before better chances for scattering arrive this evening as high pressure begins to build in from the west. This moisture has been within the entrance region of an upper jet streak where broad and weak frontogenesis is interacting along the low-mid level baroclinic zone. While the large scale ascent itself is weak, the mid level moisture is seeding the low level moisture and allowing a broad region of light snow to expand across srn Lower Mi. The cloud bearing layer across northern Indiana is a little warmer and raises concerns for adequate ice nucleation in the clouds south of the I-94 corridor. This will support a chance for freezing drizzle in the far south this morning.
it appears that an axis of moisture in the 850-500mb layer currently just to the northwest of the forecast area this morning will slide south through the day ahead of an approaching longwave upper trough. Have opted to stay with NBM guidance with highs in the lower to middle 20s but is certainly subject to change.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer, potentially even crossing the steamy mark of 0 degrees Fahrenheit!.
Overnight and through the day Tuesday, with some lee-side troughing increasing the pressure gradient, there will be a fairly strong pressure gradient along the foothills. Have continued the higher winds above most guidance given the continue strong gradient and probabilities.
With an arctic front now situated in SRN Nevada and Utah early this morning, dominant high pressure is in place leading to frigid air temperatures and dangerous wind chills. Isolated pockets of freezing fog will remain possible during the overnight hours through midweek. As the main arctic trough axis passes through the region today, this will spur light snow activity across CNTRL Montana bringing an increase in clouds along the Montana border as conditions remain dry. As a positively tilted ridge of high pressure from the Pacific shifts onshore for Tuesday and flattens on its NRN extent, light snow will be possible throughout the day Tuesday across NRN and ERN mountain ranges with any accumulations remaining light as a warming trend is reintroduced. Dry conditions return for Tuesday night under the increasing influence of high pressure as the ridge axis moves onshore midweek.
A marine warm front meanders near the coast this morning, serving as the delineator between low 60's and upper 60's to near 70 dewpoints.
As high pressure upstream of the region continues to move southeast we should see winds relax a bit compared to the gustier conditions observed today. We should see another partly to mostly sunny day on Tuesday as high pressure continues to move east across Illinois.
May even see a few locations across south central SD approach the lower 20s.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be present for the majority of the night, but will start to break south to north as the high moves away. The inherited Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect for the entire area, due to the potential for the low end of the spectrum temperature wise and the overall uncertainty where/when clouds do break. It is worth noting that some guidance does have even warmer temperatures, but feel that may be a little overdone due to the lingering snowpack remaining on the ground. Full optimal radiational cooling shouldn't be realized due to southwest winds around 10 mph helping to continue to mix the lower portions of the atmosphere.
Still well below normal for the last day of January (upper 40s), and all locations will remain below freezing, but still a marked improvement.
1254 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Upper ridging over western Cuba, and a trough extending from the Great Lakes to the central California coast are combining to produce southwesterly mid level flow across the area. A cold front was still well to the north of the area, north of the Arkansas-Louisiana border region. Temperatures were generally in the 60s at 3 AM CST, with a couple spots in the lower 70s. Much of the area should get at least into the lower 70s today, and any glimpses of sunshine would push things closer to 80. Somewhat cooler on Tuesday as the cold front to the north sags near or into our northern counties/parishes.
Additionally, a very cold air mass over the area will bring the potential for freezing spray this morning, mainly across the inner waters.
1134 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 (Today and tonight) Some light, patchy freezing drizzle was occuring across parts of central into eastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. Much of this will fall in the form of sleet with perhaps some light freezing rain as surface temps remain well below freezing across the entire area. Some lingering light freezing rain could continue to be possible along the Red river.
Water vapor imagery highlights a broad mean-layer ridge centered over the Western Caribbean.
Low- level cold advection ahead of this high will yield 850-mb temps falling to near -19C by this evening. This wave will likely facilitate cyclogenesis over Quebec, culminating with the establishment of a deep upper low/trough over central Quebec on Fri. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will progress southward through the Great Lakes on Thu. Low-level warm advection will commence again on Sat as this high continues eastward, with warming daytime temps likely for the weekend. Arctic cold front is moving through southern Lower Michigan this afternoon with a few snow squalls and some lake effect snow showers behind it. Northwest winds to 30 kts will develop today as an area of high pressure approaches the region from the west.
High pressure will then build in and persist through the rest of the week. Much of this is forecast to be snow, but forecast soundings suggest that there could be some sleet and/or freezing rain at onset. This could end as a period of freezing drizzle as there is the potential to lose ice within the cloud. Thereafter, high pressure will start to build in. The high will bring a colder airmass. Highs will range from the lower 20s to lower 30s while lows will be from around 10 to the lower 20s.
Roads will continue to be slick this evening for areas that received precipitation earlier in the day, as temperatures will get down into the lower 20s to upper teens overnight. As cloud cover remains overhead, in addition to northerly winds, have adjusted Tuesday high temperatures cooler than guidance would suggest. Freezing rain/sleet is expected for most areas south of I-40. There is some hint in model guidance in elevated instability across southern Oklahoma Tuesday morning into the afternoon which could induce some thunder sleet/freezing rain. Across southern Oklahoma, freezing rain accumulations can be expected of up to.
A strong cold front delineating this chilly airmass extended from east of the New Mexico Continental Divide to across Deep South Texas (45 in Corpus Christi, 80 in Brownsville) to across NW Alabama to southern Ohio. This low as it develops and moves to the NE will bring another chance of rain across the Tennessee Valley tonight. The above mentioned cold front should move further to the south, reaching the Gulf coast towards midweek. These clouds should return as stratus returns following the front, and an area of low pressure nears from the SW.
A Gulf ridge stretched across the Bahamas has prevented any meaningful airmass change with deep zonal flow present over Central Alabama. Will continue to see humid and mild surface conditions this afternoon with highs ranging from the lower 70s south to upper 60s north.
A cold front, currently analyzed over the extreme southern portion of the CRP CWFA, will ease through the BRO CWFA today. Overall, NAM forecast guidance was heavily favored, as it tends to handle these cold front scenarios best.
1138 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Kansas will remain in west-southwest flow aloft early this week, situated between a northern branch upper trof over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and southern branch trof settling from southern California into the northern Baja region.
A potent mean layer ridge remains entrenched across the western North Atlantic. A swath of widely scattered, light showers persists across the Lower and Middle Keys, with several locations measuring several hundreths of an inch. We issued an earlier update to account for slight rain chances, but otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 80s this afternoon.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Deep-layered high pressure will remain as the dominant synoptic scale feature over the area through the early portion of the week. Afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 80s though some isolated inland pockets could reach into the upper 80s.
Freezing morning lows are expected across the valley the next couple of days, before moderating later this week.
A mid-level ridge extends from the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico. Between the two features, southwesterly mid-level flow is advecting moisture northward over top a cold surface layer while fragments of upper level vorticity eject northeast ahead of a trough positioned over the southwest CONUS. Regional radar mosaics bring our focus to sections of southwest MO, northeast AR, and northeast OK, where a solid band of precipitation is being complimented by mid-level forcing at the northern periphery of the mid-levle ridge.
232 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 A weak low pressure system will drag a cold front from northwest to southeast late today across the Keystone state.
Pronounced surface ridging and extreme dry air at the 850 MB should prevent snow showers activity despite that mid level forcing.
As of the 2 PM hour, temperatures are below freezing across the entire CWA, with most locations hovering in the lower to mid 20s. Freezing rain with some embedded bands of sleet impacted portions of the eastern Concho Valley and Heartland earlier in the day, with the bulk of this activity currently moving off to the east across north and central Texas. Some patchy light freezing rain or freezing drizzle is possible however which will only exacerbate icy spots on roadways, bridges, and overpasses.
Issued by National Weather Service Northern Indiana 259 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 For all but far southern IN, dry and turning notably colder tonight as a 1036mb high pressure settles over Kansas and cold, northwest flow allows 850mb temps to continue to fall over Indiana. Speaking of the US-50 corridor, the subtropical jet will be active over the Tennessee River Valley tonight, with pieces of energy rounding the top of a ridge somewhat centered over the Florida Keys. The thermal trough aloft maximizes on Tuesday; our coldest day of the forecast period with highs near 20 in the northwest, and near 30 in the southeast. The subtropical jet remains active through the end of this week, but strong high pressure moving east during this time will keep precipitation chances out of our area.
Forecast Discussion: Currently across the CONUS a split flow pattern is in place with quasi-zonal to southwest flow situated from the Mid Atlantic to the Desert Southwest region with an upper low spinning into SoCal. Subtropical moisture is streaming into northern Mexico and over the southern Plains region into the southeastern states where a winter storm system is bringing freezing rain to portions of the southern CONUS. A trough over the northern Plains into the northern Rockies will tranlate across the area and bring one more day of cold air to the region before the higher amplitude ridge over the eastern Pacific begins to build into the western CONUS and eventually spreads east into the latter part of the week into the up coming weekend.
Some hope for warming for the weekend - Small, if any, snow chances into the weekend * COLD WORK WEEK: warming for the weekend? It's all about the cold for the next few days with an upper level trough across the region and an amplified ridge off the west coast funneling cold/arctic air southward out of Canada. Some relative warming starts Tue as upper level trough axis shifts east, with brief return to more zonal flow. However, another trough and slug of cold air is slated by the GFS and EC to drop in for Thu night/Fri. Hope for warming? Deterministic runs of the GFS and EC point to an extension of the west coast ridge eastward for the weekend, along with some flattening to the upper level flow. The outlier, which has the least support, would keep the ridge west.
Clear skies and arctic high pressure are leading to a dangerously cold morning across the region. High pressure will continue to shift farther southeast today and Tuesday. The axis of the upper trough will also shift east Tuesday afternoon. Although, there will be some recovery on Tuesday, as mentioned above, highs in the low teens from the James Valley east will still be about 10 to 15 degrees below average for the end of January.
What once appeared to have the potential for a higher end snowfall event for the high country now appears that it'll produce advisory-level snowfall in most areas. An area of low pressure is currently moving south along the California Coast this morning. This low will continue to move south to around San Diego by Tuesday morning.
Lows tonight will fall to near 10 below along the Lake Michigan shoreline to the lower 20s below zero across north-central Wisconsin. Trended below the warmer MET guidance and closer to the MAV guidance for highs.
Frost and freezing temperatures are likely away from the coast and are even possible for some coastal areas through mid week.
A mid-level ridge extends from the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico. Between the two features, southwesterly mid-level flow is advecting moisture northward over top a cold surface layer while fragments of upper level vorticity eject northeast ahead of a trough positioned over the southwest CONUS. Regional radar mosaics bring our focus to sections of southwest MO, northeast AR, and northeast OK, where a solid band of precipitation is being complimented by mid-level forcing at the northern periphery of the mid-level ridge. The main feature to watch is the upper low over the southwest CONUS and its eventual eastward movement across the south.
114 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 A weak low pressure system will drag a cold front from northwest to southeast late today across the Keystone state.
A few high clouds to continue across the area with an exiting area of high pressure situated off to the south and east. A large upper level ridge remains in place across the Pacific NW and Canadian Rockies with a large trough across Hudson Bay. After mid-week, the wind chills will be warmer in the daytime and become dangerous at night.
Temps are expected to moderate a bit more than what we've been experiencing the past few days, with highs ranging from around 10 above for eastern areas, to the low and mid 20s over central SD.
Frost and freezing temperatures are likely away from the coast and are even possible for some coastal areas through mid week. Frost and Freezing Temperatures Many Areas Tonight.
The main trough over the Desert Southwest/southern CA will continue to shift southward overnight.
For Tuesday, there is a chance for patchy light snow/flurries across far southern Kansas, from about mid-morning through mid- afternoon, as a zone of mid-level lift races east-northeast ahead of an upper trough approaching from the west.
654 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023 Have issued a wind chill warning for southeast Fremont into the lower elevations of Natrona County. Warmer 700mb air moves in by mid-day Tuesday, and with it some increased westerly flow.
Upper level trough has pushed into SoCal with ridging building into BC. Areas that see less wind could be locally cooler than the forecast.
Warm, dry, and quiet conditions continue across South Florida this evening as pronounced 500mb ridging remains established across our area. Have a great evening! (Rest of today through Tuesday) Deep-layered high pressure will remain as the dominant synoptic scale feature over the area through the early portion of the week. Afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 80s though some isolated inland pockets could reach into the upper 80s.
3) Warmer along and east of the mountains Tuesday, though max temps at most spots will stay below freezing one more day. Temps in general have held in the single digits over the plains, with warmer readings back over the higher terrain. An upper low will swing by far to our southwest Tuesday night, digging down into Mexico Weds-Thurs. Upper-level ridging will build in over the region for the second half of the work week, leading to warming temperatures and dry conditons across our forecast area.
Temperatures will gradually warm up across the area over the next few days as warmer air arrives from the west on occasionally gusty winds. I did go ahead and issue the High Wind Warning, though there remains some uncertainty with winds overnight and whether or not they will erode the overnight inversion. Winds will begin to die down a bit during the day on Tuesday as an upper level ridge begins to build into the area. This ridge will keep things generally quiet, though winds will remain elevated as disturbances move up and over the ridge. Some of these disturbances will bring some limited moisture with them, but any precipitation will generally be limited to the higher terrain.
Temperatures look to remain at or above freezing during this period, but cannot rule out some patchy very light freezing drizzle/light rain across northern Ashley, Chicot or Bolivar County Tuesday morning. Expect any patchy light freezing precip to mainly be on elevated surfaces.
304 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 H5 analysis this morning had low pressure over far northern Quebec. An elongated trough of low pressure extended southwest of the low, from western Ontario, into northern Utah and off the coast of southern California. East of the trough, broad west-southwesterly flow extended from the southwestern CONUS, east-northeast to the Ohio Valley.
Warmer 700mb air moves in by mid-day Tuesday, and with it some increased westerly flow.
For all but far southern IN, dry and turning notably colder tonight as a 1036mb high pressure settles over Kansas and cold, northwest flow allows 850mb temps to continue to fall over Indiana. Speaking of the US-50 corridor, the subtropical jet will be active over the Tennessee River Valley tonight, with pieces of energy rounding the top of a ridge somewhat centered over the Florida Keys. The thermal trough aloft maximizes on Tuesday; our coldest day of the forecast period with highs near 20 in the northwest, and near 30 in the southeast. The subtropical jet remains active through the end of this week, but strong high pressure moving east during this time will keep precipitation chances out of our area.
H5 analysis this morning had low pressure over far northern Quebec. An elongated trough of low pressure extended southwest of the low, from western Ontario, into northern Utah and off the coast of southern California. East of the trough, broad west-southwesterly flow extended from the southwestern CONUS, east-northeast to the Ohio Valley.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) The deterministic model runs predict an upper pattern characterized by quasi-zonal flow, except for a nearly cut-off upper low moving slowly eastward or meandering over Baja CA. If surface freezing temperatures were to occur over the CWA, the thermodynamic structure (NAM deterministic SkewT-logP at select locations in the CWA) is suggestive of freezing rain. Although the NBM (via the WSUP viewer) outputs 20-25 percent probability of freezing rain over portions of the CWA Tuesday night, the deterministic NAM-12/RAP-13 and the SREF ensemble mean maintain surface temperatures above freezing tonight and Tuesday night. Thus, not highly confident in freezing precipitation at this time (Caveat, only a 5F cooler trend in model guidance would significantly increase the likelihood of freezing rain, especially over the northern CWA.
424 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023 Current surface map places trof across the western Dakotas with 1035+ high centered over Iowa. Low level warm advection and clouds will keep warmer temperatures across northwest South Dakota tonight. Upper level ridge builds across the Pacific Northwest early this week with arctic air shunted eastward.
Today and Tomorrow: Surface observations paint a depressingly cold picture across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with the high point in the 21z observations temperature-wise being Shenandoah, Iowa at 16 degrees. Fortunately tomorrow we begin our climb out of the ice box as we begin transitioning from the deep troughing over the western CONUS into a split flow and a northerly section of the jet stream forms north of the forecast area. Highs that occurred today are expected to be improved on by around 10 degrees tomorrow afternoon with much of the area warming to the low-to-mid 20s as southwesterly winds develop.
506 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The deterministic model runs predict an upper pattern characterized by quasi-zonal flow, except for a nearly cut-off upper low moving slowly eastward or meandering over Baja CA. If surface freezing temperatures were to occur over the CWA, the thermodynamic structure (NAM deterministic SkewT-logP at select locations in the CWA) is suggestive of freezing rain. Although the NBM (via the WSUP viewer) outputs 20-25 percent probability of freezing rain over portions of the CWA Tuesday night, the deterministic NAM-12/RAP-13 and the SREF ensemble mean maintain surface temperatures above freezing tonight and Tuesday night. Thus, not highly confident in freezing precipitation at this time (Caveat, only a 5F cooler trend in model guidance would significantly increase the likelihood of freezing rain, especially over the northern CWA.
The cloud cover has kept temperatures in the single digits and low teens for today, though we could end up a smidge warmer than was previously forecast (thanks to the eroding cloud deck).
303 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023 Temperatures will gradually warm up across the area over the next few days as warmer air arrives from the west on occasionally gusty winds. I did go ahead and issue the High Wind Warning, though there remains some uncertainty with winds overnight and whether or not they will erode the overnight inversion. Winds will begin to die down a bit during the day on Tuesday as an upper level ridge begins to build into the area. This ridge will keep things generally quiet, though winds will remain elevated as disturbances move up and over the ridge. Some of these disturbances will bring some limited moisture with them, but any precipitation will generally be limited to the higher terrain.