Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Tonight) Clear/seasonably cool conditions prevail over the mid TN Valley this Fri evening, as a large dome of high pressure continues to move eastward into the mid Atlantic states. Given the light sfc winds out of the north, temps look to eventually bottom out in the lower 20s/near 20F for most spots. Fortunately, with the influx of drier air, little/if any fog/freezing fog is expected into early Sat morning.
357 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 A transitory upper ridge began spreading onto the High Plains today, with the axis still along the Rocky Mtn divide. At the surface, the main high pressure nudged eastward into the Great Lakes while a warm front stretched from the western Dakotas through the Sandhills and into Kansas. The warm front was the focus for early morning fog in southwest Nebraska today and the stark gradient in high temps this afternoon.
821 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 High pressure has settled into the region.
920 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 Update The center of the high is overhead. South winds will develop from west to east overnight as the high moves east and this will also help to limit the temperature fall.
and the lower 40s right along the coast. This combined with mostly sunny skies will help to warm daytime high temperatures from the upper 50 over the far northern CWA to the lower 60s across the rest of the region. The return of high clouds with this onshore flow will help with warmer low temperatures tomorrow night. ranging from the low 40s north. mid and upper 40s central and south to the lower 50s along the beaches.
416 PM MST Fri Feb 3 2023 A ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West will flatten as it pushes east overnight as a Pacific storm system moves east across the northern Rockies. A transient ridge will move across the Great Basin on Saturday and across the forecast area Saturday night as a storm system impacts the Pacific Northwest.
442 PM MST Fri Feb 3 2023 Flattening ridge of high pressure this afternoon with expected increasing westerly flow over the mountains and east slopes tonight and Saturday. There is a weak trof that will be moving through the flow and there is some slight cooling at 700mb by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer in/base of the foothills Saturday morning with the increasing downsloping flow and more cloudiness. An upper ridge will push across the forecast area Saturday night with strong northwesterly flow aloft.
527 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 (Tonight) With high pressure in control, clear/dry conditions are prevailing across the Tennessee Valley. As winds decouple overnight, it will create a good set-up for radiational cooling and an even cooler night. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 20s by early Saturday morning, with wind chills slipping into the upper teens.
600 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) A reinforcing cold front dropped across the area last night, giving us a sunny but brisk, chilly day. High pressure extending from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains will shift across the OH/TN Valleys tonight. A low amplitude ridge aloft will keep fair wx in place. Saturday night will bring increasing clouds as a weak, dry trough approaches.
619 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) Overall, a large scale upper level trough will continue towards the eastern CONUS with a ridge of high pressure building over the area.
A quiet evening continues across central Illinois with a ridge of high pressure centered along the IL/IN state line. Southerly flow will increase from the west overnight as the ridge axis departs east. and effectively flattens the ridge.
A transitory upper ridge began spreading onto the High Plains today, with the axis still along the Rocky Mtn divide. At the surface, the main high pressure nudged eastward into the Great Lakes while a warm front stretched from the western Dakotas through the Sandhills and into Kansas. The warm front was the focus for early morning fog in southwest Nebraska today and the stark gradient in high temps this afternoon.
(This evening through Saturday) The warming trend continues in earnest, as an upper level ridge moves over the region with southerly/southwesterly surface winds becoming gusty in western Oklahoma. In southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, lighter winds and cooler temperatures may result in areas of patchy fog, and also some freezing fog in areas where it temperatures (mainly along the Red River).
536 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 (This evening through Saturday) The warming trend continues in earnest, as an upper level ridge moves over the region with southerly/southwesterly surface winds becoming gusty in western Oklahoma. In southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, lighter winds and cooler temperatures may result in areas of patchy fog, and also some freezing fog in areas where it temperatures (mainly along the Red River).
The Wind Advisory remains in effect, and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning. The lower elevations of Sheridan County, WY look to miss this wind episode.
High pressure building over the intermountain west will yield above normal temperatures through the weekend.
540 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 Tonight and Saturday: Dry through the period with high and low temperatures around ten degrees cooler than normal. Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the axis of an upper level trough well east of Mississippi with northwest flow aloft across our region that will continue tonight before becoming near zonal Saturday. With continued CAA tonight temperatures will bottom out below freezing areawide and in the mid to upper 20s at most sites.
305 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Sub-zero temperatures today will increase tonight to near the freezing mark Saturday.
936 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 High pressure brings dry weather this weekend, with a warmup.
233 PM MST Fri Feb 3 2023 High pressure building over the intermountain west will yield above normal temperatures through the weekend.
1041 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 High pressure has settled into the region. (This afternoon through Saturday Night) A reinforcing cold front dropped across the area last night, giving us a sunny but brisk, chilly day. High pressure extending from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains will shift across the OH/TN Valleys tonight. A low amplitude ridge aloft will keep fair wx in place. Saturday night will bring increasing clouds as a weak, dry trough approaches.
Due to how dry the sounding was and not much activity along the frontal boundary, ventured to lower PoPs along the Island Chain from (30% in the Lower to Middle Keys and 40% in the Upper Keys) to (20%).
A sizable warmup is forecast Sunday with temperatures rebounding ~40 degrees from the lows Saturday morning.
A solid 5-8C spike in 850mb temps coupled with downsloping winds and full sun will make Sunday feel more like mid-spring as highs will shoot straight into the 70s for all but the high terrain (Mid to upper 60s).
131 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 High pressure brings dry weather today, with a warmup.
201 AM CST Sat Feb 4 2023 Temperatures will be nearly 20 to 30 degrees warmer today, with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
(Tonight through Saturday) High pressure and dry conditions will dominant the weather through the short term. But even with the clouds, warmer temperatures are expected with winds swinging around to the southeast. The cold front is racing towards the East Coast and dry air has quickly filtered in behind it allowing for a rapid decrease in cloud cover which has been replaced with abundant sunshine. Northerly winds will provide a cooler airmass and highs will range from the mid 40s north to mid/upper 50s south with a chilly 10-15 mph breeze this afternoon. Our winds will take on more of an easterly heading tomorrow as high pressure extends southwest along the Appalachians.
1015 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 Upper-level ridging across the ArkLaTex has resulted in clear skies areawide. As overnight lows fall slightly below freezing near daybreak, frost and patchy freezing fog may develop. As temperatures fall towards minimums below 32-degrees Fahrenheit, high-resolution guidance suggests enough moisture for the potential threat of freezing fog starting in the early morning hours, especially across northeast Texas into parts of Deep East Texas. Future forecast updates will have more detail on the spatial scale of the freezing fog across western zones.
Cold front is now south of Florida as we wake up much colder this morning. As we get into our Sunday the cold front starts to lift north and move across the area again. As it does so a low pressure is expected to form along the front in the Atlantic. This will bring showers across the state with the higher concentration on the east coast.
Abundant mid to high level clouds may also be found at times through tonight from the lifting warm front and from some upstream clouds coming off of the Rockie Mountains. Sunday sees continued mild conditions with less wind under a weak ridge.
258 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 * Quite chilly this morning, but temperatures warm up in a big way today and lows Sunday morning will likely be 15-20 degrees warmer than Saturday morning. Today, the sfc pressure gradient continues to tighten considerably between the East Coast high and low pressure over the Plains. Stronger low-level SW flow will result in warmer and breezy conditions this afternoon and evening. Strong, sustained southerly flow overnight and plenty of high clouds will result in a much warmer night with lows in the mid to upper 30s.
The CWA will be on the west side of the upper troughing pattern, which will keep continued northwest flow in place. Saturday and Saturday night: The aforementioned high pressure system will shift well off to the east of the area Saturday morning as low pressure drifts across the Upper Mississippi Valley. Highs will be much warmer with most locations seeing highs in the 50s.
Temperatures stay near or above freezing across the area Sunday morning before highs rise well above normal by afternoon.
333 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 Cold high pressure will build over the region through today, then shift off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. An upper level disturbance and a coastal trough will bring increasing clouds and a chance of light rain Sunday afternoon.
1027 PM MST Fri Feb 3 2023 A ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West will flatten as it pushes east overnight as a Pacific storm system moves east across the northern Rockies. A transient ridge will move across the Great Basin on Saturday and across the forecast area Saturday night as a storm system impacts the Pacific Northwest. A transient ridge of high pressure will move east of the forecast area on Sunday as the next Pacific storm system moves across the Great Basin region.
1037 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 (Tonight) Clear/seasonably cool conditions prevail over the mid TN Valley this Fri evening, as a large dome of high pressure continues to move eastward into the mid Atlantic states. Given the light sfc winds out of the north, temps look to eventually bottom out in the lower 20s/near 20F for most spots. Fortunately, with the influx of drier air, little/if any fog/freezing fog is expected into early Sat morning.
Flattening ridge of high pressure this afternoon with expected increasing westerly flow over the mountains and east slopes tonight and Saturday. There is a weak trof that will be moving through the flow and there is some slight cooling at 700mb by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer in/base of the foothills Saturday morning with the increasing downsloping flow and more cloudiness. An upper ridge will push across the forecast area Saturday night with strong northwesterly flow aloft.
On Saturday, will see northwest winds in the afternoon gusting 30-40 mph behind a cold front. On Sunday, breezy south to southeast winds will develop in response to the lee trough in eastern Colorado with gusts 20-30 mph.
While this will bring some cold air advection aloft, it will also mix out the inversion over the northern half of the forecast area which will result in warmer temperatures there for highs today. Winds speeds are expected to be high enough across Phillips County to keep the High Wind Warning going for today. High pressure on Sunday will bring dry weather with light winds.
131 AM CST Sat Feb 4 2023 High pressure is currently centered over central Indiana, bringing a quiet and cold night to the region.
335 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 High pressure overhead this morning shifts east this afternoon into tonight. Should actually see warmer highs in the mountains of southwest VA into southern WV than in the piedmont, as warm advection increases there first. Warm front moves to our west and north today and will see increasing high clouds later today through tonight.
258 AM CST Sat Feb 4 2023 Key Messages: * Warmer temperatures and dry conditions continue through the weekend.
Northern locations are now in the 50s with some warmer spots along the southern Brevard and Treasure Coasts in the low to mid 60s.
Anderson (Issued 322 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023) Tonight through Sunday: High pressure has begun to move across the Great Lakes Region today. As the high moves overhead this afternoon, the northwest winds will become light and variable. By this evening as the high starts to exit Wisconsin, the winds will shift to southerly and warm air advection is expected to kick in. The breezy winds will be short lived as the pressure gradient is expected to relax a bit as a weak low pressure trough approaches the state. There are some models trying to suggest that there will be a chance for some freezing drizzle early Sunday morning as the trough moves through, but not overly excited about these chances.
The next chance of precipitation arrives Sunday night with a weak cold frontal passage. High pressure will ridge into the region this morning, then begin to slide eastward by later this afternoon. Clouds will increase from west to east as a weak clipper type low pressure system will pass north of our region. A few light snow showers will be possible along the international border associated with the low just to the north. There will be a chance for some light rain showers late in the afternoon as low pressure system approaches from the west and tracks to our northwest.
(Today through Sunday) Quiet and cold night across the mid state early this morning, with dewpoints largely in the low to mid teens in the north and a few locations around 20. Temps are in the upper teens to low 20s, with lows expected to hit the low to mid teens. Colder temps will come to an end as a warming trend will move in as upper level ridging and southwesterly flow aloft will help bring in some warmer temps. Today highs will get to the upper 40s to low 50s, and Sunday will see some stronger southerly winds at the surface bring us into the low to upper 50s.
Ridge swings east of the area on Saturday with shifting winds and WAA arriving quickly producing 24hr MaxT deltas of +10-20F over the western and central Alleghenies (but still below climo). A developing southerly flow on the back side of departing high pressure will keep temperatures from dropping much Saturday night, and Sunday will be noticeably milder with highs rebounding to 15-20 degrees above those observed on Saturday.
Warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the weekend.
354 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 (Today through Sunday) The short term forecast period remains quiet as ridging aloft builds in from the west and high pressure develops along the East Coast. Locations across the forecast area will wake up this morning to temperatures ranging in the low 20s to low 30s that are expected to warm up to the 40s to mid 50s by the afternoon under mostly clear skies.
1051 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) Overall, a large scale upper level trough will continue towards the eastern CONUS with a ridge of high pressure building over the area.
348 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 Discussion/Marine -- First chance for precipitation Sunday into Sunday night -- A cold front will sweep into the area on Sunday and move south of the area Sunday night. A mixture of precipitation looks possible as temperatures will be near freezing at the onset and warming through the day. Not out of the realm of possibilities to see some light freezing drizzle on Sunday morning across Central Lower Michigan as there is lift in a low level moisture layer with an unsaturated DGZ. Temperatures will be right around freezing. Given the precipitation will be very light and temperatures will be marginal at the onset and warming with time, we do not see much impact occuring from any freezing drizzle that occurs.
250 millibar RH progs, BUFKIT soundings and GOES-16 all suggest cirrus will move in this afternoon and tonight from southwest to northeast, associated with that trough. Lack of deep moisture with the trough translates to a dry forecast. With the strong warm advection and filtered sunshine, look for temperatures to bounce back in a big way with slightly above normal afternoon highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s and with the warm advection continuing and clouds increasing, went with overnight lows in the lower to middle 30s, not nearly as cold as recent nights have been.
1247 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 Aviation The center of the high is overhead. South winds will develop from west to east overnight as the high moves east and this will also help to limit the temperature fall. ) Can't rule out a touch of freezing drizzle in the morning.
A quiet evening continues across central Illinois with a ridge of high pressure centered along the IL/IN state line. Southerly flow will increase from the west overnight as the ridge axis departs east. and effectively flattens the ridge. Warm advection winds will be aggressive tomorrow into Sunday as the surface pressure gradient tightens in between departing high pressure to our east and developing low pressure to our west.
1046 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 (This evening through Saturday) The warming trend continues in earnest, as an upper level ridge moves over the region with southerly/southwesterly surface winds becoming gusty in western Oklahoma. In southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, lighter winds and cooler temperatures may result in areas of patchy fog, and also some freezing fog in areas where it temperatures (mainly along the Red River).
Warmer and dry weather is expected to return Sunday under building high pressure. Wind Chill Advisory for portions of the region (mainly the ridges) will continue through 12Z with forecasted values ranging between 10 below to 20 below. By this afternoon, high pressure will reposition over the mid- Atlantic, fostering warm advection within southwest flow. A period of SW flow ahead of the system (and weak sfc cold front) will continue the area warming trend, with high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages.
346 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 A ridge of high pressure will bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky over the weekend. By early this evening, however, we should see increasing clouds over the area, as a short wave trough moves through the region. Cloudy skies will also persist, as the trough aloft moves by overhead. Highs on Sunday should be even nicer, with max values in the low to mid 50s expected in warm southwesterly flow. Decent southwest flow at the surface will keep it warm with afternoon highs in the low to mid 50s.
1202 AM CST Sat Feb 4 2023 Tonight and Saturday: Dry through the period with high and low temperatures around ten degrees cooler than normal. Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the axis of an upper level trough well east of Mississippi with northwest flow aloft across our region that will continue tonight before becoming near zonal Saturday. With continued CAA tonight temperatures will bottom out below freezing areawide and in the mid to upper 20s at most sites.
1100 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Sub-zero temperatures today will increase tonight to near the freezing mark Saturday.
For tonight, a weak sfc cold front is expected to bring some light lake-enhanced snowfall in the N (over the west) to NW (in the east) snow belts; that being said, it's possible that a stray flurry or two could be seen across the interior areas Sunday. The snowfall should become pure lake-effect by Sunday, with shower activity dying out from west to east throughout the day as a high- pressure ridge builds in from the west. Overall, no more than an inch of snowfall is expected with the passage of this cold front, mainly near the Lake Superior shoreline.
1232 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 High pressure brings dry weather this weekend, with a warmup.
Key Message: Breezy conditions will usher in a dramatically warmer day today. That passage of a trof/weak cold front will allow for lows to slip back to the 20s over all but the far eastern CWA. A westerly LLVL flow post sfc trof passage day, with lack of much cool advection making for temps similar to Saturday values or a degree or two cooler. Light LLVL flow under passing short wave ridging may allow for some patchy fog development Sunday night especially in recent snow melt areas.
Sunday will be slightly cooler with temperatures 3 to 10 degrees above normal.
/EC/ Tonight and Saturday: Dry through the period with high and low temperatures around ten degrees cooler than normal. Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the axis of an upper level trough well east of Mississippi with northwest flow aloft across our region that will continue tonight before becoming near zonal Saturday. With continued CAA tonight temperatures will bottom out below freezing areawide and in the mid to upper 20s at most sites.
1055 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 Key Messages: - Warmer conditions are in store for this weekend.
1139 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 Water vapor imagery currently shows weak upper ridging over the Rockies with strong northwest flow aloft from the Northern Plains into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, lee troughing is in place from eastern WY through eastern CO. By Mon morning, a positive tilted trough will extend from the Northern Plains into the Desert Southwest. The Canadian also closes it off but is considerably slower and has the upper low over southern NM by Wed morning. This should allow a cold front to move through the area late Thu night into Fri, which will bring back some more typical temps for this time of year.
242 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 Cold high pressure will build over the region through today, then shift off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. An upper level disturbance and a coastal trough will bring increasing clouds and a chance of light rain Sunday afternoon.
421 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 High pressure brings dry weather through the weekend.
645 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 Cold high pressure will build over the region through today, then shift off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. An upper level disturbance and a coastal trough will bring increasing clouds and a chance of light rain Sunday afternoon.
Moisture pooling along/ahead of this trough, light winds, and clear skies should support fog development into the early morning hours. Some dense fog appears possible, along with brief freezing fog for a few locations.
230 AM PST Sat Feb 4 2023 Pacific storm moves through over the weekend with rain in the lower elevations, gusty wind, and mountain snow impacting travel. Weak upper ridging over NorCal this morning ahead of approaching Pacific storm. Baroclinic cirrus moving through low amplitude ridging is helping to limit fog development. Front pushes through by 12z Sunday followed by associated upper trough tomorrow, keeping showers in the forecast. Decreasing showers Sunday night as trough axis shifts east and upstream subsidence increases over interior NorCal. Snow totals of 1 to 3 feet possible at the higher elevations.
529 AM CST Sat Feb 4 2023 Temperatures will be nearly 20 to 30 degrees warmer today, with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
914 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 High pressure brings dry weather through the weekend.