Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In addition, a weak northeast to southwest surface boundary from north central into southwest ND will provide a focus for convection, as well as the northern periphery of the low level jet, which looks to lie west to east across south central into southeast North Dakota. Meanwhile, if convection develops along the periphery of the low level jet over south central ND into the JRV, it would have a better chance of becoming messy as convection would be more parallel to the bulk shear, but initial storms could initially be discrete. Temperatures Wednesday will probably be a few degrees warmer for most areas, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Going forward, we'll see continued warm conditions, though a degree or 2 cooler each day.
An upper level trough that has been over the area for the last 5 days will finally start to depart eastward into the northern Great Basin later tonight and during the day on Wednesday. Conditions will stabilize as a 500mb ridge builds offshore resulting in greater large scale subsidence and drier northerly flow.
834 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Quiet short term with dry conditions under high pressure at the surface and aloft. Otherwise expect hazy skies with warmer temperatures on Wednesday into the 85 to 90 degree range. Upper ridge centered over the western Gulf Coast slowly shifts east and expands to the northeast into the Ohio Valley for the end of the week into the start of the weekend.
A s/w over the High Plains will continue to track across the forecast area tonight. The juxtaposition of a sfc trof, and the aforementioned ingredients will likely lead to expanding convection over SW SD toward evening, some of those storms likely severe with hail and wind the main threats, although a brief tornado can not be ruled out.
1019 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 A cold front will move through the area tonight. High pressure then builds in behind it through mid to late week with very warm temperatures and only low chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Scattered coastal convection continues late this evening as a cold front exits the coast.
The expectation is that the MCS will travel around the ring of the upper ridge, which would take it into WI, before it would turn SE. As this entire complex would approach the area, the low level jet core would be in its typical weakening stage at that time of the day, and the storms would follow the instability gradient.
230 PM PDT Tue Jun 27 2023 A rapid warming trend will take place this week due to high pressure aloft.
South-southwest breezes continue thanks to a seasonally tight pressure gradient across the area between a upper ridge over east Texas and a large trough across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. The low-level jet really kicks in tonight and is forecast to be upward of 50-55 kts. Wednesday, the upper ridge does move a bit farther east, away from the forecast area, which should bring about just a slight bit of cooling.
725 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 A cold front will move through the area tonight. High pressure then builds in behind it through mid to late week with very warm temperatures and only low chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Later tonight, drying conditions behind a cold front will clear skies with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s expected.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) A dry and warm short term is on tap for north and central Georgia as the upper ridge centered over the Arklatex region slowly shifts eastward through Wednesday. Temperatures gradually warm across North and Central GA through tomorrow as the ridge expands eastward over the CWA, with temperatures reaching into the low to mid 90s.
The expectation of how the higher smoke concentration will change/move over the next 24 hours did not change from the previous discussion.
940 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Scattered showers will end tonight as low pressure exits the region.
725 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 A weak cold front over eastern North Carolina will push to the Carolina coast tonight, where it will hold through the rest of the work week, as high pressure extends over central North Carolina.
656 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Areas of haze and smoke continues tonight with lows into the lower to mid 50s.
(Tonight through Wednesday) Upper-level ridge over Texas directs a northwesterly flow across Central Alabama.
930 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) The H5 ridge over northern portions of Texas is forecast to gradually migrate eastward toward our area through the short term period.
647 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 (Tonight) An upper level ridge continues to build in from the west, with dry and clear conditions expected to persist tonight. Lows are forecast to dip into the lower to mid 60s over northeast AL and portions of TN, with mid to upper 60s elsewhere.
Temps running about the same as yesterday with a few locations a touch warmer. Trough influence continues to weaken through tonight and tomorrow as high pressure starts to build in.
a much juicier airmass with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s from Sidney to Chadron to Torrington. 0-6km shear will be quite high with this high CAPE.
545 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Current upper air analysis shows the upper ridge east of the forecast area, nearing the Great Lakes region, with a tilted trough over the PAC NW, and another trough over the New England region. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats for today, though can't rule out an isolated tornado in far southern SD where the lower LCL's and better low level helicity is located. Western US trough will start to move east across the Rockies and into the Plains late week, with additional chances for showers and storms. Over the weekend, mild ridging builds over the northern plains, and temps warm up to the 80s for the latter half of the weekend, with likely a break in precipitation potential.
Ragged cloud lines that attempted to form across portions of the Lower and Middle Keys quickly fell apart prior to sunset.
An upper-level trough moving through the region today will bring showers and thunderstorms to much of central and northeastern Nevada this afternoon. Drier conditions along with warming temperatures under a building high pressure dome are expected starting Thursday with 90s for highs over the weekend.
Current water vapor imagery shows a significant slot of dry air in the low to mid-levels across much of Arizona. The trough over the west begins to slowly propagate through the Great Basin on Wednesday. By Thursday, the mean trough axis moves just the north of Arizona through Utah.
At the surface, high pressure remained centered over much of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper ridging will shift slightly eastward over the next couple days to be centered over Louisiana.
(Today through Thursday Night) Once again, the forecast basically remains the same (Heat! Heat! Heat!) as mid/upper level ridging continues to dominate our area. Late night through early morning low clouds and possible fog (low temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s) followed by hot, humid and mostly sunny days (highs in the lower 90s at the coast and in an upper 90s to lower 100s range inland) can be expected.
352 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Dry weather is expected today and Thursday under high pressure. Dry weather returns today under increasing subsidence as ridging builds in from the west. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures continue Thursday as high pressure transitions across the region.
The main chance for isolated severe storms on Wednesday afternoon will be near and east of the Buffalo Ridge into parts of northwest IA. Wednesday night into Thursday should be a mostly dry period as mid and upper level ridging builds across the area in the wave of the Wednesday wave.
140 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Areas of haze and smoke continues tonight with lows into the lower to mid 50s.
140 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 A cold front will move through the area tonight. High pressure then builds in behind it through mid to late week with very warm temperatures and only low chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures trend much warmer on Thursday and persist into the weekend, with repeated rounds of showers and storms possible. Cyclonic flow around the upper low provides a northwesterly flow regime through a large depth of the troposphere. The ridge of high pressure to our south continues to slide east and will be located somewhere near Louisiana/ Arkansas at the start of the period Thursday morning, keeping the area mostly dry through the first half of Thursday. Areas of low pressure to our north allow for a tighter pressure gradient through the Midwest as flow travels around the ridge.
1254 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Scattered showers will end tonight as low pressure exits the region. Dry weather is then expected today and Thursday under high pressure. This will end later tonight as the upper level trough drifts eastward and heights rises ensue. Dry weather returns today under increasing subsidence as ridging builds in from the west. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures continue Thursday as high pressure transitions across the region.
202 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 High pressure takes control today and Thursday, yielding a warming trend to round out June. Northerly flow in place this morning continues to encourage low stratus clouds to blanket the forecast area, but building high pressure will promote a clearing trend by later this morning into the afternoon. Hi-res guidance suggests a plume of smoke plunging down from the north after sunrise and remaining in place into the afternoon before high pressure nudges it out of the area. Highs for today are anticipated to reach the mid 70s along the higher terrain and into the low 80s for the Lowlands. Sufficient radiational cooling overnight tonight with high pressure in place may yield river valley fog heading into Thursday morning. A warm front encroaches from the southwest at the conclusion of the forecast period.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ The 595 decameter center of a 500mb ridge will remain directly overhead today, keeping the excessive heat going for at least one more day. The ridge axis will move slowly east through Wednesday night and become centered over Louisiana on Thursday, which may lower both max temperatures and heat indices slightly. /Issued 159 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023/ /Thursday Onward/ Intense early summer heat wave will persist through the remainder of this week as a strong upper-level ridge continues to build and slowly migrate eastward toward the Ark-La-Tex where it will center itself by Thursday.
300 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the central Plains, with a trough just east of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows flattening ridge shifting east of the region, with large scale trough over the west coast and Great Basin region. Southwesterly flow extends eastward into the high plains now. An active weather pattern will continue through the latter part of the week as the trough to the west slowly moves east through the Plains.
High pressure builds in for the weekend and brings drier conditions and the warmest temperatures of the summer so far, with highs well into the 80s to lower 90s. The responsible upper level trough will remain in place for the next 24 hours or so and diurnal heating will ramp up shower and thunderstorm activity later this morning/afternoon. The highest risk area for localized flooding remains over higher terrain, especially over and near the central ranges, but heavier cells with torrential downpours can't be ruled out for any location in the CWA. The weakening trough begins to shift east of the CWA on Thursday, with ridging over the Great Basin strengthening and eventually becoming a more influential factor for the Northern Rockies.
435 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 A cold front will push off the coast and deteriorate today as high pressure begins to build in from the west. High pressure remains in control into late week. At the surface, the deteriorating front remains near the coast, while high pressure begins to build in from the west.
The stout upper ridge centered over Texas into the Arklatex region will continue gradually building eastward from today into Thursday with temperatures responding accordingly. For today, highs will warm into the low-to-mid 90s areawide outside of the mountains. Dewpoints will remain generally in the low 60s through the afternoon, which will serve to keep heat index values tolerable. Finally, MCS potential will need to be monitored on Thursday as the area remains in northwest flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the upper high.
(Today through Thursday Night) A strong upper level ridge that has been set up over TX and the south central US will start to push east and is going to bring a major warm up for us. Dew points will also be pushing into the low to mid 70s by Thursday bringing heat indices 100-110. Thunderstorms will develop to our north along a cold front and will likely grow upscale into an MCS.
1205 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 A ridge of high pressure is situated right over Middle Tennessee this evening, so we expect light/calm winds overnight and again tomorrow. Temps are in the mid to upper 80s (oh, to live on the Plateau -- they're at 77 at forecast time) and dew points are manageable in the low 60s. Strong upper level ridging that has brought awful afternoon temperatures to the southern Plains over the the last several days is headed this way.
420 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 High pressure will build across the region today and Thursday, bringing dry weather. For the end of the week into the weekend, rain chances return with low pressure deepening to our west. The mid and upper level trough stretching from the Great Lakes has moved east this morning, allowing NW flow to develop. Ultimately we should have mostly sunny skies as high pressure builds in today from the Ohio Valley, bringing us a rain-free day with lower humidity levels. Highs should range from the low to upper 70s in the mountains, and to the low to mid 80s for the Piedmont.
Upper level troughing has shifted slightly eastward into the western Atlantic. Broad upper ridging over eastern Texas continues to ridge east-southeastward into the Gulf of Mexico.
351 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 (Today through Thursday) In the mid to upper levels, a strong ridge continues to build over the Southern Plains, while troughing extends from the Northeast US down over the western Atlantic, off to our east. At the surface, a front is slowly moving across the SE US, with high pressure over the northern Gulf. High temps today will be in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat index values in the 103-108 range. Overnight lows will remain mild, dropping into the low 70s inland, and in the upper 70s near the coasts. Thursdayâs temperatures will generally be a degree or two cooler than today, with peak heat index values remaining over 100.
Expect heat indices across the area to reach into the low to mid 100s over the next couple days. The west CONUS trough will continue to work east into the Great Basin region over the next couple of days which will enhance lee side troughing over the area bringing breezy south winds.
An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the western Gulf Coast States has slowly been moving eastward over the past 24 hours. Water vapor imagery highlights sinking air across most of the Gulf of Mexico this morning as the ridge continues to build to the east. Weak high pressure extending across the area has led to light winds with generally a west to southwest component. The Big Pine RAWS dropped down to 77 degrees, while most other island communities are still in the lower 80s. As we head into the weekend, ridging over the Gulf will be enveloped into a ridge that will have set up over the western North Atlantic. Temperatures through the forecast period will be a slightly above normal, with highs in the lower 90s and lows dropping into the lower 80s.
129 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Weak high pressure will bring rain-free conditions through Thursday.
Seeing this form within the broad trough axis where winds are very light.
The upper level low that has brought a string of thunderstorm days is no longer stationary and has moved farther east. And by Fri the upper level ridge is dominating the pattern with northerly flow, eliminating all of the precipitation threat and leaving only miniscule threat of dry thunderstorms.
213 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure has set up over the Desert Southwest and spilled over east into the southern and central Plains. Wednesday night into Thursday night: Hot air over the Desert Southwest will build into the Intermountain West and western Montana as a ridge which will block off further Pacific Moisture and begin to reduce most thunderstorms chances for our area.
The amplified ridge with being to build eastward into the Gulf States today with the previously stalled frontal boundary remaining across Central AL. However, as the high pressure builds in, a lot of the guidance keeps our area mostly rain-free through Thursday.
1227 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday) Upper-level ridge over Texas directs a northwesterly flow across Central Alabama.
This is all thanks to the upper ridge finally sliding eastward over the next 24-48hrs. Highs tomorrow are expected to come in about 3-5 degrees cooler than today, but it will still be quite hot.
This complex known as a MCS will continue to push ESE and eventually SEward following the periphery of the upper lvl ridge that is in place across the CWA. Rinse and repeat regarding the seemingly concreted upper lvl ridge in place across the Southern Plains/far western Mid-South region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a warm front will be lifting from southwest to northeast across the CWA. A more moist airmass will be present behind the warm front with higher dewpoint temperature values that will lead to it feeling absolutely oppressive outside. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: The warm front will complete its progression through the Natural State by Wednesday night. Thursday at the upper lvls will feel the brunt of the ridge as it slides eastward centered over the Mid-South region of the CONUS.
1232 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 The upper level trough continues to slowly progress east nearing the CWA from the west. Severe weather is not expected as any of the higher parameters will be well east of the CWA, but small hail and some gustier winds are still possible with any that become a bit stronger. Otherwise, afternoon temperatures at or just below average once again Wednesday with slight breezes expected at most 10-20mph across much of the CWA outside of the higher terrain. Rinse and repeat again on Thursday as the aforementioned trough makes little progress eastward.
(Today and tonight) The hottest temperatures of the season so far are expected later today for much of the area as strong upper ridging and downsloped southwesterly surface winds push temperatures over 100 degrees areawide.
304 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 A broad area of low pressure slowly moves east of our region today with lingering clouds and spotty showers. High pressure builds into the region tonight and Thursday. A broad area of low pressure will continue to slowly drift east into eastern New England later today and tonight. As a result, high temperatures will struggle to get into the low 70's across most of the area. Clouds decrease tonight as high pressure builds into the area. Highs may end up a couple degrees cooler though due to the haze with only 70's and a few spots near 80 for highs after starting out in the 50's. After the upper trough/low passes. flow will remain NW'erly Thursday morning before turning SW'erly later in the day with high pressure building in.
(Today through Thursday) The center of the Subtropical Ridge drifts to the east over eastern Texas today and into Louisiana on Thursday. Although the center of the Ridge drifts off to the east, the portion of the Ridge over South Central Texas is strong enough that subsidence and a drier than seasonally normal airmass will inhibit convection. The lowest levels of the airmass will be sufficiently moist for a pattern of overnight into early morning stratus. We will issue another Rangeland Fire Danger Statement for the Rio Grande Plains into Edwards Plateau due to breezy conditions combining with the low humidities due to mixing this afternoon into early evening, as well as drying vegetation.
Weak troughing aloft will remain in place through Thursday, with the only chance for precipitation being Wednesday afternoon in northern Inyo and Esmeralda counties. A ridge will build in the second half of the week into the weekend which will bring continued dry weather and rapidly warming temperatures. Subtle changes in the position of the mean trough parked over our region will mainly be noticeable today between Bishop and Tonopah as showers and isolated thunderstorms develop this afternoon into early evening across the central/southern Sierra and central Nevada evening.
/Issued 1231 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023/ /Through Thursday/ The 595 decameter center of a 500mb ridge will remain directly overhead today, keeping the excessive heat going for at least one more day. The ridge axis will move slowly east through Wednesday night and become centered over Louisiana on Thursday, which may lower both max temperatures and heat indices slightly.
A weak rex block exists over western North American, with troffing over the great basin and a ridge to its north over southwest Canada. Late tonight and Thursday, another wave will lift out of the southwestern trof and clip eastern WY and SD. Upper level ridge building from the west will become more dominant Thursday night (i. Temps will remain a little cooler than normal, but a warming trend begins Thursday.
However, mid level ridging over the lower Mississippi Valley will keep our region in more of a northwest flow pattern aloft. It looks like an MCS may develop tonight off to our northwest and then drop south/southeast into the lower Ohio Valley late tonight into early Thursday.
This activity wl track along the eastern periphery of an expanding upper ridge centered ovr TX. The upper ridge wl cont to sloly bld into the Mid-South, with triple digit highs bcmg more common.
Good model agreement exists that a developing ridge of high pressure to the west will edge its way into the Northern Rockies and provide a period of several days worth of warming temperatures and dry conditions.
1032 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Current upper air analysis shows the upper ridge east of the forecast area, nearing the Great Lakes region, with a tilted trough over the PAC NW, and another trough over the New England region. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats for today, though can't rule out an isolated tornado in far southern SD where the lower LCL's and better low level helicity is located. Western US trough will start to move east across the Rockies and into the Plains late week, with additional chances for showers and storms. Over the weekend, mild ridging builds over the northern plains, and temps warm up to the 80s for the latter half of the weekend, with likely a break in precipitation potential.
521 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Today and Tonight: A upper ridge over Texas is helping to steer MCSs along the eastern periphery, which has kept our weather unsettled. An MCS late yesterday afternoon dropped temperatures and dew points to the low 70s across the area. Increasingly dangerous heat will continue today as the ridge continues to build eastward. Any MCS that does develop should clear the area by tonight and give way to drier conditions, especially under the influence of the ridge.
Other positives include some moisture pooling along the surface front thus enhancing the low level instability, southerly surface flow, and very steep mid level lapse rates.
The upper trough that has persisted the last 5 days will finally start to depart eastward into the northern Great Basin today. Conditions will stabilize as a 500mb ridge builds offshore resulting in greater large scale subsidence and drier northerly flow.
A warm front will bring a return of humid air along with very hot temperatures for the remainder of this week into the upcoming weekend.