Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, in the 30s. Most precipitation will take the form of a cold rain, but a mix with wet snow is probable on the higher terrain of the NW zones, especially Saturday morning.
Weak surface ridging will keep surface flow out of the north through the day. Taking a look at the ensembles, the GFS ensemble is the highest with a 30-50% chance for receiving a tenth of an inch of QPF.
144 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Broad, slow moving upper trough currently over the western CONUS will slowly migrate eastward through the short term period.
With the main upper trough now moving over West Texas, height falls/cooling aloft is initiating our last round of convection across western north Texas. We cancelled the northern and western portions of the Flood Watch and kept areas that saw the most rain last night and have the highest potential for impactful rainfall this morning. North Texas and southern Oklahoma convection expected to end/move east before noon, but as upper trough passes over the region, we could still get isolated or scattered showers and storms this afternoon into early evening, mainly across north central and central Oklahoma.
This afternoon and tonight a cold front will drop south through the area, bringing cooler temperatures for the Weekend. However, except for the low level moisture the atmosphere is quite dry and Bismarck/Mandan could be close to the sunshine this afternoon. Late this afternoon, the cold front is approaching Bismarck and 850 mb temperatures bump up right ahead of the front. The cold front moves through tonight with abundant low level cloud cover behind it.
and Saturday High pressure drifting east of the region will provide dry weather to the western Great Lakes through this evening. Mostly sunny skies should allow temperatures to rise into the lower to middle 40s across much of the area this afternoon. A low pressure system tracking through the central Great Lakes will bring a swath of light to moderate snow to northeast, east- central, and portions of central Wisconsin late tonight into Saturday.
Surface analysis early this morning depicts a cold front near the Ohio River Valley. The track of the low has trended south with most recent model guidance, which has pushed the better threat for severe storms/the heaviest QPF south.
There is a weaker feature and eventual cold front Saturday that may allow for a few flurries to form, but no measurable snow is highlighted by HREF/NBM probs. Temperatures have the potential to recover to the upper 20s this afternoon (above freezing in the forests of MN), with some uncertainty on temps due to possible increases in mid-upper clouds from the west.
The track of the low through Lower Michigan is still a bit uncertain, but the ECMWF and GFS operational runs have trended a bit towards each other. Leaning on the GEFS MSLP output we feel the low will track from north central/northeast IN into south central Lower Michigan and further northeast into Lake Huron. 10 as a nose of warmer air aloft overspread near to possibly just below freezing surface temperatures and dynamic cooling of the profile and wet bulb affects bring freezing rain into the picture.
An easterly surface flow will set up by daybreak as high pressure builds into northern Lower MI. - Wintry mix of precipitation Friday night/Saturday - A low pressure system over the far southern Plains Friday morning will strengthen as it moves ne across lower MI by midday Saturday. There is potential for a several hour period of fzra early to mid morning Saturday near to north of the I-96 corridor as a result of warm air aloft and dynamical cooling effects resulting in sfc temps near freezing.
Later today, this boundary will begin to lift northward again as a warm front, in response to the approach of the parent system. By peak heating, a tongue of lower 70s temps intersecting with dew points climbing into the lower 60s will expand across the southern third of the FA, just in time for the approaching cold front. Both lower and mid level winds begin to crank up as the parent trof drives the cold front into the MS River Valley this evening.
Surface winds are a bit stronger in the higher elevations further west, which may prevent fog development tonight compared to the southeast. A weak short wave trough is going to move through the region tomorrow afternoon with a cold front lagging behind tomorrow evening. A cold front is going to move through the region Friday evening through Saturday morning bringing colder temperatures into the region.
Track of the storm will keep the warm air advective associated pcpn well south/east of the local forecast area, along with pcpn along it's warm/cold fronts. Both the GFS and EC continue to trend toward some relatively cooler air working into the area for the weekend, start of the new work week. Could/should see a bump in temps as we move into Thu/Fri with a warmer, southerly push of air ahead of a Thu/Fri potential storm system. High pressure overhead will lead to light winds on Friday with mostly clear skies.
311 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 (Issued 311 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023) Today through Saturday: Today should be relatively pleasant as high pressure pushes across the northern Great Lakes, reaching Quebec by tonight. A fair amount of sun will help temperatures warm into the mid to upper 40s inland, with cooler readings around 40 near Lake Michigan, courtesy of easterly winds. By this evening low pressure will start to lift northeastward from the Ozarks, reaching northern Indiana and lower Michigan by tomorrow morning. Forcing will be strong, with good upper level support and organized frontogenesis in the low levels. Impacts from this event will largely depend on snowfall rates, with warmer pavement temps and a late March sun angle helping to mitigate travel issues to some degree.
231 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the weekend as high pressure remains offshore.
1037 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Water vapor shows rather flat upper ridge building from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, with trof extending from the Pac NW coast through the Desert SW. At the surface, high covers the Upper Midwest with trof extending from north central MT through eastern WY and eastern CO. A piece of the west coast trof ejects into the Southern/Central Plains on Friday, with surface trof working into the Black Hills. Overall warmer temps are expected tomorrow, mainly in the 40s but cooler where snow showers develop. Cold front moves through Friday night, with more synoptic lifting as next upper low shifts into WY.
High pressure will remain over the area for the next couple days continuing to provide mostly dry conditions. Temperatures today will be warmer as a result of the high pressure and southerly winds. Overnight Friday and into Saturday morning winds will become more easterly and eventually switch around to the north bringing back cooler temperatures to start the weekend.
With the surface cold front now well south of the KILX CWA dropping toward the Ohio River and MUCAPEs of just 100-500J/kg noted along/south of I-70, think the severe risk this evening will remain low. Cloudy and misty conditions continue this afternoon with a cold front draped across the area just south of I-70, moving slowly southward. Several hundred J/kg MLCAPE is associated with the frontal zone, and could lead to some strong storms, with mainly a hail threat north of the cold front. As the low departs Saturday morning rain could briefly change over to snow north of Peoria, with little or no accumulation expected. Gusty west winds are possible Saturday behind the departing low, depending on how rapidly the low deepens.
Dry weather and mostly clear skies will continue on through today and tonight as high pressure ridging remains over the region. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s for inland areas and in the lower 80s and upper 70s along the coastline. (Friday through Saturday night) The influence of high pressure ridging will continue on through Friday with high pressure moving off to the east by the start of the weekend. Showers and potential thunderstorms will build through the forecast area on Saturday ahead of an advancing weakened cold front with the frontal boundary expected to ultimately stall over Georgia.
(Today through Saturday) High pressure with a mid level ridging continues to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida.
An upper level high center sits over Florida with persistent upper ridging dominating the eastern half of the U. On Saturday, the trailing edge of a weak cold front will move through the eastern U.
1235 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler tomorrow and through the weekend. Discussion: The surface cold front has pretty much stalled south of the area this afternoon with only a few locations still observing some light fog and drizzle. This low will translate along the stationary front this afternoon and evening. The trough will lift up across the lower MO River Valley Friday afternoon and evening with another wave of precipitation arriving with the passage of the cold front.
209 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Current surface map places trough across central Montana into eastern Wyoming. For today trough slides into western South Dakota. Cold front slips through the area tonight. Stronger impulse ejecting from western CONUS trough moves through Wyoming tonight and into the Central Plains Saturday. With the lower snowfall rates and longer duration.
Deep mean layer ridging remains in place across much of Florida with the mid to upper level ridge virtually overhead and the low level ridge just off the eastern Florida coastline. Deep mean layer ridging is expected to remain in place across the Florida Keys leading to another dry and mostly sunny day with highs in the lower to mid 80s. For tonight, the deep mean layer ridge slides off to the east turning the overall flow to the east to southeast. Current thinking is that any activity that forms will slowly drift northward but won't reach the Island Chain, more specifically, the Lower Keys until after midnight. Any showers would only slowly propagate eastward through the Lower Keys lingering the slight chances (10%) into Saturday morning.
An area of low pressure lifts into the mid-Mississippi Valley Friday night and northeastward to Lower Michigan later Saturday. The core of this low has trended a bit more westward over the last 12 hours, with Slight Chances of precipitation now introduced into Price County in north-central Wisconsin.
Cooler tonight with a drier air mass in place with overnight lows in the 40s.
An upper level low will lift towards the Great Lakes and quickly pulls a cold front across the region, bringing showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds Friday night through Saturday morning. It still looks to be a "high shear low cape" environment, and weakens a bit as it crosses into our area, so the highest severe storm concern will mainly be in the Cumberland Plateau and southern Valley counties. In addition to the storms, non-thunderstorm winds are possible area wide as a strong LLJ (50-60kts)swings over the area, especially in the higher terrain. The High Wind Watch for the mountains will likely be upgraded to a High Wind Warning shortly.
1200 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023 High pressure will extend across the region through Friday. A cold front is expected to pass through Saturday evening.
Upper level trof across the swrn US is advancing eastward tonight and will start to lift and acquire a bit of a negative tilt as it plows toward the region. with a trailing cold front and a nearly stationary frontal zone stretching across northern Arkansas into southern Missouri.
Track of the storm will keep the warm air advective associated pcpn well south/east of the local forecast area, along with pcpn along it's warm/cold fronts. Both the GFS and EC continue to trend toward some relatively cooler air working into the area for the weekend, start of the new work week. Could/should see a bump in temps as we move into Thu/Fri with a warmer, southerly push of air ahead of a Thu/Fri potential storm system. Low pressure south of the region is expected to spread high clouds into the area tonight.
The morning sounding found fairly moist air in the lowest 4kft with RH values over 80 percent, but very dry air above. Overnight, the moist layer will increase up to around 8kft as winds veer to more of a southerly direction in general through the lower boundary layer. The zone forecast has low chance rain chances for these periods, which may need to be increased in the afternoon forecast given the deep southerly flow and increased depth of the lower boundary layer moisture.
There is snow on the ground in that area, which could limit the low-level lapse rates and any potential weak surface based CAPE. The HREF suggests that portions of southwest into central Nebraska stand the higher chance for the band of precipitation.
709 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023 (Today through Saturday) High pressure with a mid level ridging continues to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida.
Cooler temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s remain for areas along Lake Michigan. RAH (Issued 311 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023) Today through Saturday: Today should be relatively pleasant as high pressure pushes across the northern Great Lakes, reaching Quebec by tonight. A fair amount of sun will help temperatures warm into the mid to upper 40s inland, with cooler readings around 40 near Lake Michigan, courtesy of easterly winds. By this evening low pressure will start to lift northeastward from the Ozarks, reaching northern Indiana and lower Michigan by tomorrow morning. Forcing will be strong, with good upper level support and organized frontogenesis in the low levels. Impacts from this event will largely depend on snowfall rates, with warmer pavement temps and a late March sun angle helping to mitigate travel issues to some degree.
A warm front will return rain areawide into Saturday.
302 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Once again we're getting some Dense Freezing Fog forming in the Milk, Missouri and Poplar River Valleys.
524 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Current surface map places trough across central Montana into eastern Wyoming. For today trough slides into western South Dakota. Cold front slips through the area tonight. Stronger impulse ejecting from western CONUS trough moves through Wyoming tonight and into the Central Plains Saturday. With the lower snowfall rates and longer duration.
506 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Cool and dry weather is expected through midnight as high pressure briefly crosses the region. Then as a strong low pressure system passes to our northwest, an elevationally dependent mixed precipitation and snowfall event will unfold over the region Saturday into Saturday night.
607 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 A large high pressure sitting across the Gulf continues to inject low level Gulf moisture northward. On the backside of this boundary, a substantial trough works its way across the western Rockies. A low level leeward trough develops as the upper level trough moves across the Rockies. As the low traverse KS, it turns 850 mb flow ahead of it toward the NW. These models park the warm frontal boundary along a line extending from Bates to Randolph counties. Other solutions are able to effectively move the warm front northwestward bringing more widespread showers to the region. Precipitation chances are still scattered as upper level divergence along the jet streak combined with low level convergence as the air wraps around the low are more than suitable to catalyze some showers.
651 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Cool and dry weather is expected through midnight as high pressure briefly crosses the region. Then as a strong low pressure system passes to our northwest, an elevationally dependent mixed precipitation and snowfall event will unfold over the region Saturday into Saturday night.
A slow moving surface cold front ahead of a large Pacific low pressure system will continue to spread moderate snowfall rates across north-central Idaho, through sunrise. The cold front will continue to slowly move east across Idaho and Clearwater Counties over the next few hours, before entering western Montana by 6AM this morning. Snow showers and colder than normal temperatures will persist through this weekend, as a longwave trough settles over the western US.
454 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Winter returns again just in time for the start of the weekend as an upper-level trough brings much colder temperatures and widespread snow. Areas to the west will be a bit on the chilly side as clouds move in ahead of the cold front associated with the trough. Cold front looks to move through overnight on Friday. Widespread accumulations between 1 and 3 inches looks pretty plausible with this event, with the highest totals occurring under these frontogenetical bands. And of course, an incoming cold front is usually accompanied by high winds here in southeast Wyoming. Winds will gradually ease behind the cold front.
1008 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023 A warm front will remain just to the north through tonight, but a cold front should arrive by Saturday morning to bring showers.
Broad troughiness through the region will shift east today, with a few light showers possible mainly north and northeast of Tucson. High pressure building through eastern Mexico and into the southern plains will push our temperatures back to near or a little above climo the first half of the new week. Another storm that could have a deep enough trajectory to bring a solid chance of showers to go along with strong gusty winds and cooler temperatures.
(This evening through Saturday Night) Latest radar imagery indicates a thin band of thunderstorms located just to our northeast, while most of the area continues to be impacted by light showers ahead of an advancing weak surface cold front. That being said, things should remain fairly comfortable for outdoor activities given the low dew points in place.
339 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023 A low pressure system will impact the region through Saturday with the heaviest rain tonight and gusty winds on Saturday.
101 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 A large high pressure sitting across the Gulf continues to inject low level Gulf moisture northward. On the backside of this boundary, a substantial trough works its way across the western Rockies. A low level leeward trough develops as the upper level trough moves across the Rockies. As the low traverse KS, it turns 850 mb flow ahead of it toward the NW. These models park the warm frontal boundary along a line extending from Bates to Randolph counties. Other solutions are able to effectively move the warm front northwestward bringing more widespread showers to the region. Precipitation chances are still scattered as upper level divergence along the jet streak combined with low level convergence as the air wraps around the low are more than suitable to catalyze some showers.
Very cold temperatures aloft (associated with the cold upper low) may help to foster the development of a few thunderstorms. Overnight lows will range from the low-30s across northwest Oklahoma to low-40s across the Red River Valley.
Surface analysis indicates a weak low pressure over western North Dakota contributing to weak cyclonic flow across most of the northern plains. Maximum temperatures today will still be below freezing with the exception of the forested areas of north-central Minnesota, where heat flux should allow for a relatively mild day. A cold front will shift winds to northerly tomorrow, with gusty winds approaching 30-35 mph.
1110 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Winter returns again just in time for the start of the weekend as an upper-level trough brings much colder temperatures and widespread snow. Areas to the west will be a bit on the chilly side as clouds move in ahead of the cold front associated with the trough. Cold front looks to move through overnight on Friday. Widespread accumulations between 1 and 3 inches looks pretty plausible with this event, with the highest totals occurring under these frontogenetical bands. And of course, an incoming cold front is usually accompanied by high winds here in southeast Wyoming. Winds will gradually ease behind the cold front.
As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to dip into the upper 20s to low 30s with highs tomorrow ranging from the low 40s across west central Kansas to low 50s across south central Kansas. Lows tomorrow night are progged to dip into the low 20s west to low 30s east.
Track of the storm will keep the warm air advective associated pcpn well south/east of the local forecast area, along with pcpn along it's warm/cold fronts. Both the GFS and EC continue to trend toward some relatively cooler air working into the area for the weekend, start of the new work week. Could/should see a bump in temps as we move into Thu/Fri with a warmer, southerly push of air ahead of a Thu/Fri potential storm system. High clouds will increase through tonight as a low pressure system tracks from the Mid Mississippi River Valley into the Lower Great Lakes.
1033 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Morning update: Freezing fog from this morning was fairly localized to the river valley locations and adjacent coulees from Saco in the west all the way through Culbertson and Plentywood in the east. Most of that freezing fog has eroded out to sunny skies, except for a small remaining pocket from Poplar and toward the NE to Medicine Lake which is expected to also clear out very soon. Next round of freezing fog looks likely again from the east and could be more widespread near our border with North Dakota based on our latest model analysis. -----BMickelson Previous discussion: Once again we're getting some Dense Freezing Fog forming in the Milk, Missouri and Poplar River Valleys.
A mid-level ridge over the Northland slides eastward this evening.
307 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023 A backdoor cold front will meander over the region through tonight before lifting northward as a warm front on Saturday. Low pressure will track from the Mississippi Valley toward the Great Lakes tonight into Saturday. The cold front attached to this system will push through later Saturday into Saturday night.
139 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Water vapor shows negatively tilted trof extending from the Pac NW through the Four Corners, with notable waves over UT and WA. At the surface, trof is located over the western Dakotas. Surface flow will increase from the northeast behind a backdoor coldfront with many of the higher res models suggesting dense fog especially across northwest SD and possibly into south central SD.
Temperatures will be a little cooler for Saturday with the slightly cooler airmass and north winds, in addition to lingering fog and stratus.
These conditions persist through the afternoon, but will drop again to MVFR and IFR tonight as a cold front approaches and moves through the area. /14 (Now through Saturday) Deep southwesterly will occur through tonight between upper ridging shifting well east of the region and the next upper trough moving eastward over the southern and central plains regions. A 80-100 kt southerly 500 mb jet is expected to develop from central Texas to Missouri by late this afternoon along the southern and southeastern periphery of the trough, and strengthen to 90-110 kts as it passes well north of the area tonight. The primary hazard will be damaging winds, although a tornado cannot be ruled out due to modeled hodographs showing decent curvature in the lowest kilometer.
Temperatures around the island chain are currently in the lower to mid 80s. Rain chances for the Lower Keys have been slightly increased (up to 20%) to account for a slightly more favorable shower environment overnight. High pressure out in the western North Atlantic will continue to promote gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes with occasional fresh breezes in the Straits of Florida tonight. Late Saturday, a weak cold front will stall out over mainland Florida nudging the high to the southeast and slackening winds for the rest of the weekend.
The warmer temperatures from today will again cool for tomorrow with highs Saturday mainly in the 20s and lower 30s.