Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1130 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (The rest of today) Strong upper low that brought a few storms to the area last night and some light snow across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning will continue to move off to the east throughout the day. Gusty northerly winds will also continue into the afternoon, though gusts should begin to relax somewhat later this afternoon as surface ridging spreads in from the west. Much cooler temperatures, back down to near seasonal averages will be common today with highs creeping into the 40s. Some mid 40s will be possible along and west of the Highway 75 corridor this afternoon where some clearing is likely.
1128 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (Today through Friday) Patchy fog has formed over the Ranchlands early this morning and has the potential to spread south towards the RGV ahead of the cold front, but confidence is low. The cold front is currently passing through the CRP CWA. However, CAA lags behind the front and cooler temperatures won't arrive until tonight. Tonight will be cooler with lows dipping into the 40s.
Enjoy the warm ahead of this front as temps will tank tonight into the low/mid 30s and only warm up into the upper 30s to lower 40s on Friday with lows below freezing Friday night. Unlike the last time we had snow, our temps have been well above freezing, so the ground temps should be warm enough to melt snow. Of course elevated surfaces like bridges/overpasses will freeze faster/easier so use caution.
1123 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) As the upper low that brought the wind yesterday moves east today, an upper ridge over the Great Basin will build in from the west. By Friday, the ridge axis moves over the Rockies as the region remains on the edge of high pressure. Have gusty NW wind early this morning as a cold front moves through.
1058 AM MST Thu Jan 12 2023 Quiet morning weather-wise as a ridge builds in from the west and dry air works into the region. Along the I-25 Corridor readings may rise into the lower to mid 40s in the Denver metro area with slightly cooler readings further north. We'll have warming temperatures under the ridge Friday, with winds limited to the ridges and east slopes.
However, some moistening has taken place in the lower levels compared to yesterday evening, lending to some clouds in the sky compared to yesterday when it was completely clear. Looking further at the sounding, winds in the low levels were veering from easterly to southeasterly indicating warm air advection taking place across the Florida Keys this morning. In the low levels, the center of the ridge continues to move off to the east over the western North Atlantic. As a result, the Florida Keys will remain on the southwestern side of this ridge providing for another dry day. From synopsis, weak high pressure continues to slowly slide northeast across the western Atlantic this afternoon. A strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will push through the Florida Keys coastal waters late Friday afternoon and evening.
The cold advection will drop temps into the 20s tnt which will rebound into the lower to middle 30s on Fri with some sunshine expected. Temperatures will remain fairly steady today, just above freezing.
The precipitation is accompanying a warm front that will lift northward through the day.
Light and variable winds are expected overnight, and will gradually veer to the west overnight and eventually to the southwest after sunrise as the surface anticyclone shifts eastward. This will result in excellent radiational cooling tonight, with lows in the upper 20s across the Caprock and into the lower 30s across the Rolling Plains. Wind speeds will remain less than 15 mph tomorrow as the subsidence layer descends to near 800 mb, with high temperatures 7-10 deg F warmer than today.
1112 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front is currently pushing southeast into the Hill Country this morning, while a strong upper-level low is moving through Oklahoma and Kansas. As one might expect, a much cooler airmass has pushed into west Texas. Model soundings show 850mb temperatures of 0-2 deg C, which is about 15 deg C cooler than the past two days! Despite the sunshine, the resulting high temperatures should only reach the upper 50s to around 60 this afternoon, although the winds will undoubtedly make it feel cooler. By this evening, the storm system will have moved into the Tennessee Valley, which will allow cool high pressure to build in. Low temperatures should easily fall to the low to mid 30s through the night, with the usual low spots falling into the upper 20s.
(This evening through Friday Night) Quite a contrast from yesterday's record highs, as northwest winds continue to bring in a much cooler and drier post-frontal airmass across the region. Temperatures today have been running 20 to 25 degrees cooler than this time yesterday, especially along and north of Interstate 20, where an area of low clouds is pivoting across that area. In addition to the cooler airmass, winds have been very gusty today, with many locations reporting gusts 35 to 40 mph. Temperatures will likely drop into the lower 30s areawide, with upper 20s possible north of Interstate 30. Models are hinting at some low clouds hanging across the Ark-La-Miss region tonight, which could keep temps a few degrees warmer in that area. By Friday, the region should see mostly clear skies, with a cooler airmass remaining over the region.
(This evening through Friday Night) In the wake of the latest cold front, northwesterly winds have been a little gusty, prompting a wind advisory along our island communities through the overnight hours. Clear skies tonight will also enhance cooling with overnight lows expected to reach the upper 30s north of I-10 and north of the Houston-Metro area while areas to the south will cool down to the low 40s. Despite clear skies tomorrow, continuous CAA will keep daytime highs in the upper 50s north of Houston and the lower 60s elsewhere. Tomorrow night, high pressure begins to slide east, so winds become more calm and northeasterly. Overnight lows will cool to the mid to upper 30s except for Houston and our island communities which will cool to the low 40s.
High pressure was in place across the eastern Dakotas into eastern Nebraska this afternoon. Low pressure was located across the Ohio Valley with a pressure gradient extending back into the Northland. A weak trough was stretching across Upper Michigan into northeastern Minnesota. Temperatures will also trend cooler and closer to normal with the high. Upper level ridging will then keep quiet conditions in place for the weekend. Winds will turn southerly with low pressure well off to the west and high pressure to the east and bring warmer into the region.
416 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2023 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary remaining nearly stationary across eastern MT to the Black Hills area, with high pressure centered over the central and eastern Dakotas. Upper level analysis shows ridging over the Great Basin to the Rockies, with northwest flow across the Plains. The HRRR, RAP, and NAM are all targeting south central SD with the highest likelihood of dense fog overnight into Friday morning, but at least patchy dense fog is expected elsewhere on the SD plains, especially in low lying areas and river valleys. As the ridge to the west starts to shift eastward to the Plains on Friday, the front will move northeast as a warm front, eventually pushing the low clouds east of the region and bringing milder air in through the weekend.
235 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2023 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary remaining nearly stationary across eastern MT to the Black Hills area, with high pressure centered over the central and eastern Dakotas. Upper level analysis shows ridging over the Great Basin to the Rockies, with northwest flow across the Plains. The HRRR, RAP, and NAM are all targeting south central SD with the highest likelihood of dense fog overnight into Friday morning, but at least patchy dense fog is expected elsewhere on the SD plains, especially in low lying areas and river valleys. As the ridge to the west starts to shift eastward to the Plains on Friday, the front will move northeast as a warm front, eventually pushing the low clouds east of the region and bringing milder air in through the weekend.
218 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2023 An upper level ridge over the Western CONUS will continue shifting east over the Tri-State area this evening through the end of the short term period.
(Tonight) Gusty winds have come down significantly in the last hour or so, with the threat for any strong to severe storms having long since diminished with the passage of the cold front. Light showers continue to develop as a secondary vort max rounding a broader upper-trough over the eastern CONUS dives southeast toward the Tennessee Valley overnight. However, some localized spots across the higher terrain may see some light accumulations later on during the day on Friday as this light precipitation continues.
Lows will dip into the 20s area wide under this ridge with light winds and clear skies present.
231 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2023 Eastern Utah and Western Colorado will see quiet weather for the next couple days as a strong ridge builds in over the Intermountain West.
Temperatures will fall after sunset behind the line of storms with readings falling to near freezing far northwest toward daybreak on Friday morning with readings in the mid 30s across the northwest third of the area and in the upper 30s for the rest of the area except the far southeast with readings in the lower 40s.
353 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2023 An upper level ridge over the Western CONUS will continue shifting east over the Tri-State area this evening through the end of the short term period.
The cold front is currently over the MS/AL state line as temperatures are slowly falling after the passage. Dry and cool weather, due to high pressure building over the region, is expected this weekend.
RH values have dropped to around 20 percent area wide today with temperatures warming back into the lower to lower to mid 70s for a majority of the area. With cooler mid-level air moving in temperatures tomorrow will not rebound like they did today, and everyone should top out in the 60s as high pressure shifts overhead. The ridge moving east so quickly will keep us from seeing an especially cold night, though a lot of areas should find the mid to upper 30s Friday night.
This will allow for lee troughing to increase which will ramp-up south winds for Sat and Sun. This trough will become the focus for upcoming forecast shifts. The 12z run of the GFS has the upper low much further north compared to the ECMWF. However, looking back at previous runs of the GFS, this is the first one that closes off the low over western KS. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low 40s.
624 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 Aviation - Risk for flurries/freezing drizzle tonight Low level moisture is shown to increase this evening as the northerly flow strengthens on the backside of the departing storm. and feature mainly light snow showers as the temperature falls below freezing.
Not too confident in this happening, although if it did, we may see light freezing drizzle out of it, considering the dry DGZ. - Risk for flurries/freezing drizzle tonight Low level moisture is shown to increase this evening as the northerly flow strengthens on the backside of the departing storm. and feature mainly light snow showers as the temperature falls below freezing.
419 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2023 Eastern Utah and Western Colorado will see quiet weather for the next couple days as a strong ridge builds in over the Intermountain West.
/Issued 1151 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023/ /Through Tomorrow/ Breezy and cooler conditions will continue this afternoon across North and Central Texas in wake of the Pacific front. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the 30s region wide, with most of our far western counties falling below freezing. High clouds may keep portions of the Big Country just above freezing, but low-lying and sheltered areas should still fall below freezing. The upper pattern will remain progressive with troughing over the western U.
The cold advection will drop temps into the 20s tnt which will rebound into the lower to middle 30s on Fri with some sunshine expected.
553 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 The cold front is currently over the MS/AL state line as temperatures are slowly falling after the passage. Dry and cool weather, due to high pressure building over the region, is expected this weekend.
High pressure building across the region will bring dry conditions through Friday with temperatures warming well above seasonal averages.
Current surface analysis places high pressure stretching through the northern and central plains, with low over the Ohio River Valley. On Friday, with the exception of the possibility of some morning fog, a rather quiet day is is on tap as upper level ridging works towards the area.
The dry and potentially foggy conditions are being driven by a ridge pattern currently over the state. Yet, while some stronger winds still exist over Central California, the passage of the ridge pattern will diminish the winds and increase the fog potential going into Friday. Ensemble upper-air analysis has a good handle on ridge axis placement and the potential track the ridge will take in the next 24 to 36 hours.
512 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (This evening through Friday Night) In the wake of the latest cold front, northwesterly winds have been a little gusty, prompting a wind advisory along our island communities through the overnight hours. Clear skies tonight will also enhance cooling with overnight lows expected to reach the upper 30s north of I-10 and north of the Houston-Metro area while areas to the south will cool down to the low 40s. Despite clear skies tomorrow, continuous CAA will keep daytime highs in the upper 50s north of Houston and the lower 60s elsewhere. Tomorrow night, high pressure begins to slide east, so winds become more calm and northeasterly. Overnight lows will cool to the mid to upper 30s except for Houston and our island communities which will cool to the low 40s.
235 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2023 Key messages: 1) Warmer weather. Aloft, strong NW flow at midlevels will transition to modest zonal flow as heights quickly rise and the mid level ridge axis moves overhead by late tomorrow afternoon. Mtn tops will be warmer than the valley floors as temps aloft begin to rise aloft. There will be a chance of some patchy ground fog (GF) where snow is covering the ground over the lower elevations. Tomorrow will be quite nice, With temps pushing around 60s along the mtns/plains interface with slightly cooler temps farther east. The areas where snow is still on the ground will be a few degrees cooler, especially over N El paso county.
Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary remaining nearly stationary across eastern MT to the Black Hills area, with high pressure centered over the central and eastern Dakotas. Upper level analysis shows ridging over the Great Basin to the Rockies, with northwest flow across the Plains. The HRRR, RAP, and NAM are all targeting south central SD with the highest likelihood of dense fog overnight into Friday morning, but at least patchy dense fog is expected elsewhere on the SD plains, especially in low lying areas and river valleys. As the ridge to the west starts to shift eastward to the Plains on Friday, the front will move northeast as a warm front, eventually pushing the low clouds east of the region and bringing milder air in through the weekend.
Cooler, drier air will filter in behind this front, and dry conditions are expected by midnight. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 30s, and breezy northwest flow will drop wind chills into the mid to upper 20s. A light wintry mix will be possible mainly north of the TN River before sunrise, as wrap around moisture begins to dig across the lower Appalachians. The best chances will be in the higher terrain across southern middle TN and northeast AL.
Temperatures drop into the teens and single digits for the high country. Friday, the main axis of the upper level ridge moves overhead promoting another dry and mostly sunny day. This combined with the snow field in place will favor cooler highs than what temperatures aloft suggest. In the case that the inversion breaks, temperatures could end up into the 50s, but the cooler solution is more likely at this point.
523 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Light rain continues to move southeastward across the Quad State following the cold front. On the synoptic scale, a fairly deep mid-level trough is positioned over the Midwest while a ridge is centered on the Great Basin. Northwesterly to NNWerly flow is positioned over the Quad State tonight as a weak disturbance drops into the trough and moving through the region. The system finally moves out late in the day, allowing for skies trending clearer and lows dropping to the low to mid 20s Friday night.
Otherwise, strong ridge over the region will bring a fairly mild night tonight and warm day tomorrow. Look for highs getting to the lower-mid 50s many places (mainly west/central parts), and there is a good possibility some locations touch 60F.
18z observations are showing a large longwave trough dipping all the way to Texas with the low pressure center near the Missouri boot heel. Friday the upper level winds will transition from the trough to a ridge axis which will be centered over the Rockies by midday. Friday night should be more mild as the ridge axis moves firmly into western Kansas and winds will be south to southwest in the boundary layer.
A quick moving cold front will bring the potential for MVFR conditions beginning at 09Z for the northern sites and impacting southern locations by 15/16Z. One more very quiet weather day across our area with high pressure starting to shift east out of the area in response to a cold front that will be heading our way overnight. After frontal passage we will see a quick change in winds speed and direction and cooler air diving in.
458 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Fairly boring weather in the short term with upper ridging dominating both today and Friday, keeping us bone-dry. A cold front moved through this morning and winds have shifted out of the north, so the colder air is hanging around for a bit and highs this afternoon won't break out of the 50s for most. By Friday, ridging will be firmly in place and highs will return to the low 60s, cooler than the past several days but still above- normal. Light southerly winds and increasing cloud cover Friday night should help to keep overnight temperatures above freezing in the 30s and low 40s.
Freezing temperatures are expected by sunrise across the north and west, with some locations dipping into the 20s, particularly those low-lying and sheltered areas that see periods of near-calm winds. The upper pattern will remain progressive with troughing over the western U.
542 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (This evening through Friday) Strong gusty north winds will decouple early this evening, with winds becoming light as high pressure builds directly over the region by morning. With strong radiational nighttime cooling conditions, temperatures will be falling to lows near the freezing mark, with low lying and valley areas falling into the mid and upper 20s, particularly along and southeast of an Ozona to San Angelo to Brownwood line. Highs Friday rise into the lower 60s, as south winds of 5 to 10 mph return midday and afternoon.
116 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2023 Current surface map places warm front across eastern Montana into western South Dakota. Low clouds/dense fog east of the warm front will linger through this morning. Upper level ridge builds across the area today with low level thermal profiles peaking late today/early Saturday supporting highs in the 40s/50s.
1258 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023 (06Z TAFS) Current VFR conditions give way to MVFR to brief LCL IFR conditions later this morning as line of showers and storms ahead of approaching cold front affects terminals.
954 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Temps had cooled to the upper 30s to mid 40s across the Midsouth at 9 PM, following a cold frontal passage earlier today. GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low over the mid-MS River Valley. PWB The cold front is currently over the MS/AL state line as temperatures are slowly falling after the passage. Dry and cool weather, due to high pressure building over the region, is expected this weekend.
The storms ahead of the cold front did produced tornadoes to our east where the as the environment was more unstable across Mississippi and Alabama. temperatures will fall into the 30s for most of the area by sunrise with a few temperatures around the freezing mark in central Louisiana. The coldest morning will be on Saturday with freezing temperatures from central Louisiana and the lakes region in southeast Texas down to the I-10 corridor.
129 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 A 500 mb trough is centered over the FA this morning. As vorticity swings through on the backside of the trough and causes a slight uptick in ascent, thermal profiles show the column becoming more saturated around -10C as low level moisture lingers with cloud cover in place. Flurries likely linger into the afternoon after 15z as the trough moves more east of the FA with the better lift and moisture. Winds will be quite breezy once again due to the pressure gradient on the backside of low pressure centered over the NE CONUS with gusts over 20 mph possible. For the upcoming weekend, dry and tranquil conditions are in store as a ridge of high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.
A brief bout of cold air will arrive today giving some below zero wind chills this morning before we bounce back into abnormally warm air for the rest of the forecast breaching the freezing mark several times with more dreary cloud cover.
Current surface analysis places high pressure stretching through the northern and central plains, with low over the Ohio River Valley. On Friday, with the exception of the possibility of some morning fog, a rather quiet day is is on tap as upper level ridging works towards the area. The first low chances come Saturday night over far northern portions of the area, which could bring a little bit of light freezing rain per latest forecast soundings.
Otherwise, a ridge will continue to amplify over the region tonight with dry and warm conditions prevailing. Above-normal temperatures will continue into tomorrow under southwest flow aloft as a trough moves inland.
High pressure moves overhead tonight, with lows falling into the upper teens to around 20.
A ridge of high pressure building in across the western Great Lakes will bring any remaining snow to an end Friday morning with clearing skies expected late morning and into the afternoon as drier air advects in from the west.
1123 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (This evening through Saturday) METSAT and radar are showing the low circulation moving across the AR/MO/TN/KY borders this afternoon, with the cold front east of the state.
Temperatures will rebound to around 3 to 5 degrees above normal today with highs generally topping out in the low to mid 60s. The 500 hpa ridge axis will shift overhead tonight. Clear skies will lead to adequate radiational cooling, but modest southerly sfc flow lows will keep lows above freezing in most locations besides SE NM and the Upper Trans Pecos.
1042 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (This evening through Friday) Strong gusty north winds will decouple early this evening, with winds becoming light as high pressure builds directly over the region by morning. With strong radiational nighttime cooling conditions, temperatures will be falling to lows near the freezing mark, with low lying and valley areas falling into the mid and upper 20s, particularly along and southeast of an Ozona to San Angelo to Brownwood line. Highs Friday rise into the lower 60s, as south winds of 5 to 10 mph return midday and afternoon.