Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Downsloping westerly flow at the sfc will result in compressional warming across the Southern Plains, allowing highs to soar into the low to mid 80s for most locations. Southeast New Mexico will see slightly cooler temps where high clouds are expected to be more abundant. This uptick in moisture will keep lows warmer across the east by several degrees. Zonal flow aloft will transition to more southwesterly as an upper level trough begins to dig across the Pacific Northwest. Highs will again soar into the low to mid 80s for most locations tomorrow afternoon, despite increasing high clouds.
515 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Latest surface analysis showed low pressure over eastern Kansas with a warm front extending northeast across northwestern Missouri into southeastern Iowa and northern Illinois. As it does, it will cause a cold front to move southeast across the CWA later this morning and this afternoon. Dry weather is expected to continue tonight into Tuesday morning as the NAM/GFS have a upper ridge building across Missouri and ILlinois.
359 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Today through tonight: a warmer and more humid weather pattern is in store for the forecast area as we go through early week. A subtropical ridge is rebuilding over the Gulf of Mexico, and this is supporting the increase in warm southerly low level flow over our region. The initial push of richer boundary layer moisture is leading to some dense fog formation in the lower Pine Belt region early this morning, and will need a dense fog advisory there based on obs trends until mid morning. Otherwise, for later today, there could be a few showers as we heat up mainly over southern portions of the area, but overall, the weather should be dry with readings topping out in the low/mid 80s along/south of the I-20 corridor.
542 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 A cold front will move through the region this morning with cooler air setting in across central Kansas while well above normal highs in the 70s will continue across southeast Kansas today.
With a nearly stationary upper level low situated off the Pacific NW coast early this morning, scattered snow showers continue across portions of the Upper Snake Plain and NRN/ERN mountain ranges. A departing cold front descending through CNTRL Utah is the main driver for nocturnal snow showers of which continue to decrease in intensity. The current 500 mb jet stream has a broad trough established over the NRN Rocky Mountains and Pacific leading to continued quiet winds and well below normal temperatures. Have gone ahead and lowered temperatures with a blend of the NBM and GFSBC to capture the coldest mountain basins reaching double digits below zero with everyone else seeing single digits above and below zero with warmest areas around the lower Magic Valley in the teens above zero.
354 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler today behind a cold front for most locations, but the Ozark Plateau to Central Missouri should still see afternoon highs in the mid 60s. - Prolonged period of cooler temperatures, cloudy skies, and generally unsettled weather begins tomorrow and continues through the weekend.
Webcams and surface observations suggest patchy -fzdz or flurries hanging out under the low clouds. Easterly upslope component to low level flow will enhance convergence ahead of inverted trough, thus enhancing snow amounts over northwest SD into the eastern slopes of the Black Hills.
Two more quiet and very warm days are expected across the Florida Keys as upper level ridging remains dominant across the region. Temperatures Tuesday night will be similar in the lower to mid 70s, though, the one difference will be that the wind speeds will be 5 to 10 mph out of the west to northwest clocking to the north. This will help to keep temperatures a couple degrees warmer than tonight.
a cold front will drop south into the state from the north.
556 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 A cold front will approach from the west today and cross the area late in the day into this evening bringing clouds and a chance of a shower. High pressure will then build in through midweek offering a period of dry weather. Temperatures will warm to highs around 20 degrees above normal, ranging from the lower 60s far north to the lower 70s south. Clouds look to hold on overnight with lows from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south. Temperatures look to be closer to normal, ranging from the mid 40s north to the lower/mid 50s south.
However, the one thing we do know is that freezing rain is not a threat. In the regions containing the advisory the snow will stick, the temperatures are cooler and the dendritic growth zone will be longer lived. On the southern end of the low this afternoon will be a band of heavy rain showers along the I 94 corridor.
518 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler today behind a cold front for most locations, but the Ozark Plateau to Central Missouri should still see afternoon highs in the mid 60s. - Prolonged period of cooler temperatures, cloudy skies, and generally unsettled weather begins tomorrow and continues through the weekend.
520 AM MST Mon Mar 6 2023 Northerly winds are now present across the area, following cold front passage yesterday evening. Low temperatures this morning are expected to fall into the low 20s to low 30s. As mentioned in previous discussion, forecast soundings continue to indicate the potential for freezing drizzle with dry mid-levels, saturated low-levels, and a warm nose present Monday night-Tuesday morning over eastern Colorado.
Upper level long wave trough responsible for this period of active weather remains parked offshore of the Pacific NW and is not expected to move much for the next few days. With the periods of snow and wind expect temperatures not to vary much and will range from the upper 20s to upper 30s for highs with lows dropping into the low single digits to the lower 20s.
(Today through Tuesday) Warm front moving north this morning over south shore locations. Sounding profiles north of the front support radiation and build down fog while south of the warm front only advective. With the cooler ground temps and boundary layer, this deck could build down this morning over northshore locations.
A deep and cold upper low pressure system will remain entrenched over the Northwest through late week. Currently, GOES-18 satellite and the KMAX WSR-88D radar reveal two low centers within the trough - one offshore from the mouth of the Columbia, and another spinning offshore from far Northern California. Thereafter, there's above average confidence that another, stronger low center will rotate through the trough and again target the south coast.
921 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 A cold front will approach from the west today and cross the area late in the day into this evening bringing clouds and a chance of a shower. High pressure will then build in through midweek offering a period of dry weather. Clouds look to hold on overnight with lows from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south. Temperatures look to be closer to normal, ranging from the mid 40s north to the lower/mid 50s south.
(Now through Tuesday) Quasi-zonal flow aloft will persist in the short-term period as mid-level ridging -- centered over the southwest Gulf of Mexico -- noses over Southern Texas. At the surface, high pressure will remain anchored across the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico, helping to provide persistent southeasterly winds. High temperatures today will warm up into the upper 80s and lower 90s, a few degrees cooler along the coast. Similar high temperatures can be expected Tuesday afternoon, perhaps a degree or two warmer.
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 523 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 High pressure over the southeast U. A cold front will move through the region tonight and early Tuesday. Cooler air will star to move into northern sections of the Mid-South on Tuesday bringing temperatures back to near normal.
631 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 (Today and tonight) Key Message: Another quiet weather day expected, with temperatures a bit warmer than yesterday. This will help bring daytime highs several degrees warmer than yesterday with many climbing back into the 70's again.
(Today through Tuesday) Zonal flow aloft will turn slightly NW on Tuesday as a broad trough digs over the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure will shift offshore from the Mid Atlantic region into the western Atlantic.
1127 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler today behind a cold front for most locations, but the Ozark Plateau to Central Missouri should still see afternoon highs in the mid 60s. - Prolonged period of cooler temperatures, cloudy skies, and generally unsettled weather begins tomorrow and continues through the weekend.
However, most locations will stay dry with highs in the mid to upper 80s across the interior and the low 80s at the coast.
220 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 Dry high pressure will cover the region through this evening. Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley late tonight, bringing a cold front through the area early Tuesday morning followed by gusty winds.
1000 AM MST Mon Mar 6 2023 Northerly winds are now present across the area, following cold front passage yesterday evening. Low temperatures this morning are expected to fall into the low 20s to low 30s. As mentioned in previous discussion, forecast soundings continue to indicate the potential for freezing drizzle with dry mid-levels, saturated low-levels, and a warm nose present Monday night-Tuesday morning over eastern Colorado.
1147 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 A cold front will move through the region this morning with cooler air setting in across central Kansas while well above normal highs in the 70s will continue across southeast Kansas today.
1131 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Another beautiful day is on tap for the mid-state as high pressure has built in, leaving us with a few passing mid-to-high level clouds and warm temperatures. This system will drag a weak cold front through the area tonight. Highs on Tuesday will be cooler thanks to the fropa with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today.
Tonight and Tuesday Broad upper trough remains in place across the region with a nearly stationary upper low still of the Washington coastline this afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will allow waves of clouds and moisture to stream over the area producing occasional snow showers, especially across the high country. This isn't shown in all of the models however, so confidence isn't the highest in this and it'll just be something to monitor. As far as temperatures are concerned, they remain well below normal for early March with much of the region likely to remain below freezing for daytime highs with overnight lows generally in the positive to negative single digits for most locations.
The area will remain under a broad SW flow aloft thanks to a deep upper level low over the Pacific NW. Once that passes, a longwave ridge will develop over the western U.
When temperature drops to near and below freezing north of I 80, rain will transition to snow and may result in 1-2. Mid-upper level high pressure will develop and begin to clear out skies during the afternoon on Tuesday. Long range model ensembles indicate that open low pressure, capable of bringing in cold air, will propagate through the area this weekend. Thereafter, ceilings will improve back to VFR by the end of the TAF period as high pressure returns.
1124 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 (The rest of today ) Another warm afternoon in store for the forecast area, though temps will be a little bit cooler behind a cold front that makes an initial push into NE OK this morning and into the afternoon.
1142 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Latest surface analysis showed low pressure over eastern Kansas with a warm front extending northeast across northwestern Missouri into southeastern Iowa and northern Illinois. As it does, it will cause a cold front to move southeast across the CWA later this morning and this afternoon. Dry weather is expected to continue tonight into Tuesday morning as the NAM/GFS have a upper ridge building across Missouri and ILlinois.
It is possible areas of northern plains could experience freezing drizzle starting midnight through Tuesday morning. A cold front dropped south across eastern Colorado last evening. East to southeast winds will prevail here along with cooler readings. The low level east/southeast flow will increase tonight and push cooler and more moist air into the area. Cross sections show the cloud layer could be thick enough for freezing drizzle and will keep this mentioned in the forecast. This will provide for a magnificently gorgeous day across the lower elevations (/s), with low clouds/fog, reduced visibility, and a chance for freezing drizzle/fog, particularly in the morning. It's unlikely we'll see any impactful accumulations given just how shallow that sub-freezing moist layer will be (up to 800-750 mb at most), although a very light glaze can't be completely ruled out in a spot or two.
Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 40s in most locations which may feel a little chilly after the very mild day we've had.
Some clearing is expected tonight into Tuesday with dry low- level easterly flow developing south of a strong high pressure system across Canada.
This first impulse, which sent a cold front through southwest KS last night, will continue east through the short term period, while the other moves northeast into Canada. At the surface, high pressure will sag southward into the central plains, but be shunted by weak lee cyclogenesis over the southern plains, which will hold winds generally out of the ENE to ESE through the day today. Given the progress of the cold air accompanying the high pressure will be limited, afternoon temperatures will still be fairly warm today with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s under mostly clear skies.
230 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 Weak system brings a cold front with showers tonight with mountain showers lingering on Tuesday. Ridging midweek.
This is as the 850 mb low and 700-500 mb trough, now located over Wisconsin this afternoon, moves through late this evening. Recent runs of the HRRR have focused the heaviest band of precip even a bit farther south/southwest, into the warmer air and precip-type transition zone.
226 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Key Points: - Cooler pattern sets up tomorrow and persists through the weekend.
Light northeast breezes prevail across the Florida Keys, with temperatures climbing through the lower 80s. Dewpoints are in the lower 70s and skies are partly cloudy.
329 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 A cold front will move through the region tonight.
131 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 A dry cold front will move through the forecast area tonight, bringing an end to our taste of late spring warmth. Mid-level ridging and cool high pressure centered over the northern Plains will bring seasonable temperatures to the region for Tuesday.
(Tonight) Early this afternoon, a cold front was located near the I-44 corridor across northeast Oklahoma. Dry conditions are expected through tonight behind this shallow cold front. Did trend a little cooler than the NBM overnight with most new guidance coming in colder.
918 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Another beautiful day is on tap for the mid-state as high pressure has built in, leaving us with a few passing mid-to-high level clouds and warm temperatures. This system will drag a weak cold front through the area tonight. Highs on Tuesday will be cooler thanks to the fropa with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today.
Highs today and Tuesday are forecast to range from the lower to mid 80s over areas along and north of the I-10 corridor and in the upper 70s to lower 80s along the immediate coast and beaches.
222 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 Dry high pressure will cover the region through this evening. Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley late tonight, bringing a cold front through the area early Tuesday morning followed by gusty winds.
Weak front sweeps through overnight, leading to slightly cooler Tuesday. Tuesday morning a cold front will pass through switching our winds to the northwest, bringing slightly cooler weather for Tuesday. Guidance is similarly pessimistic on shower potential, so kept it out of the forecast, but could see an isolated light shower make it through the dry air in some of the higher elevations. Rest of the day on Tuesday will be clearing skies under northwest flow, with slightly cooler but still quite pleasant temperatures.
/CAB/ (Today through Tuesday) Warm front moving north this morning over south shore locations. Sounding profiles north of the front support radiation and build down fog while south of the warm front only advective. With the cooler ground temps and boundary layer, this deck could build down this morning over northshore locations.
1249 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 A cold front will approach from the west today and cross the area late in the day into this evening bringing clouds and a chance of a shower. High pressure will then build in through midweek offering a period of dry weather. Clouds look to hold on overnight with lows from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south. Temperatures look to be closer to normal, ranging from the mid 40s north to the lower/mid 50s south.
Overnight lows will range from the lower 60s inland to around 70 across the metro.
(This evening through Tuesday) A surface cold front was currently (as of 1:30 pm) located from near Paducah to Silverton to Amarillo. These clouds should help to keep high temperatures tomorrow much cooler mainly in the upper 50s to 60s. Models have a tendency to poorly handle these cooler airmasses but with this airmass being marginally cool in the first place it remains uncertain if the cooler air will remain in place rather than being shunted east during the day like most operational guidance (including the hi-res guidance) indicates due to strengthening lee troughing near the NM/TX state line.
1106 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 (Today and tonight) For today and tonight, an upper trough will be over the northwestern CONUS into the northern Rockies, while a subtle, broad upper ridge develops over the Gulf Coast. With breakup of the low cloud cover toward midday, skies will be mostly sunny over our area this afternoon with patchy high cloud coverage. Temperatures will be warm and well-above normal again this afternoon, with highs expected to be in the lower to mid 80s.
1236 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 Dry high pressure will cover the region through this evening. Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley late tonight, bringing a cold front through the area early Tuesday morning followed by gusty winds.
1132 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 (Now through Tuesday) Quasi-zonal flow aloft will persist in the short-term period as mid-level ridging -- centered over the southwest Gulf of Mexico -- noses over Southern Texas. At the surface, high pressure will remain anchored across the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico, helping to provide persistent southeasterly winds. High temperatures today will warm up into the upper 80s and lower 90s, a few degrees cooler along the coast. Similar high temperatures can be expected Tuesday afternoon, perhaps a degree or two warmer.
The Northern Rockies will then remain in an unsettled and somewhat active period through the week, thanks to an area of low pressure just off the Oregon coast ejecting moisture northeastward and into our neck of the woods. Scattered showers with no major accumulations are anticipated until we get to the end of the week, when a more substantial cold front and associated moisture could bring a host of impacts to the region.
Farther north, a cold front has sagged southward into Oklahoma and should drift toward the Red River over the next few hours where it's likely to get hung up.
Dry and warm conditions continue today before a weak cold front arrives tomorrow night and marks the return of cooler temperatures and an uptick in rain chances.
The pressure gradient will tighten up a bit Tuesday afternoon due to pressure falls over the Southern High Plains, supporting breezier southeast winds along the Lower Texas Coast and coastal counties.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Warm and humid conditions will persist through Tuesday night with modest ridging aloft and light to moderate south-southeasterly winds at the surface as high pressure remains across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the Western Atlantic. Afternoon highs should top out in the low to upper 80s for most each afternoon as clouds scattered out while a few 90s will be possible across the Rio Grande plains.
1012 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 Dry high pressure will cover the region through this evening. Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley late tonight, bringing a cold front through the area early Tuesday morning followed by gusty winds.
210 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Latest CAMs as well as deterministic model runs indicate that the weak cold front will exit the forecast area between 22z and 00z this evening. However, there is a lot of dry air to overcome in the low levels due to easterly surface flow.
Developing southwesterly mid-level flow and weak lee troughing ahead of weak perturbations in the flow allow for increasing moisture overnight. This is in response to a progressive trough within the subtropical jet.
(Through Tuesday) A broad upper level ridge will prevail along the Gulf Coast this period keeping things warm.
As this happens, a warm front will continue to lift well north of the Quad State area. As the low drifts farther east to Ohio this evening, a cold front will pass through the area. The low shifts to the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday morning as high pressure builds across the Quad State area with partly cloudy skies expected. Temperature will run well above normal today as warm air lifts northward ahead of the cold front, with much of the area warming into the mid 70s.
When temperature drops to near and below freezing north of I 80, rain will transition to snow and may result in 1-2. Mid-upper level high pressure will develop and begin to clear out skies during the afternoon on Tuesday. Long range model ensembles indicate that open low pressure, capable of bringing in cold air, will propagate through the area this weekend. VFR conditions will continue through most of the daylight hours as high pressure departs.
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1200 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 High pressure over the southeast U. A cold front will move through the region tonight and early Tuesday. Cooler air will star to move into northern sections of the Mid-South on Tuesday bringing temperatures back to near normal.
(This evening through Tuesday night) The main forecast challenge in the short term will be the movement, or lack there of, of a cold front which is currently across the southwest Texas Panhandle. We are leaning toward the cooler solution of the NBM 5th percentile for highs on Tuesday. This is based off of upstream observations and what is currently going on across the Panhandles with the initial surge of cooler air.
Mean-layer ridging remains across the Caribbean, although its northern flank has been eroded by the zonal westerlies spreading across the northern Gulf Coast and Central Florida.
241 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Today through Tomorrow: With the returning low-level moisture and warmer temperatures, widespread cumulus have developed in this spring like atmosphere today. The chance for isolated showers will spread north tonight, while a cold front dips south into the region. Warm, humid weather with spotty showers will continue into the day Tuesday, with temperatures still about 15 degrees warmer than normal. High pressure to the south advects warm air northward, while mid level height falls influence areas north, setting up a stationary boundary across central Mississippi.
(This evening through Tuesday) A cold front will move into the Big Country late tonight, then stall across the Big Country Tuesday morning. Expect overnight lows in the lower 50s across the northern Big Country, with mid to upper 50s elsewhere. There remains some uncertainty on how far south the aforementioned cold front will make it, before stalling, on Tuesday. Elsewhere, expect highs in the low to mid 80s.