Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
700 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023 A cold front will push through the region this afternoon and evening, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure and dry conditions are expected on Wednesday. Cold front is slowly pushing through our region, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms moving in as a result. Cold front is still in western NY and will slowly push eastward, exiting the region late tonight. High pressure will build in from the west overnight, with clearing skies and valley fog are likely to form through the early morning hours on Wednesday. High pressure remains overhead tomorrow. A few isolated showers will be possible in the southern Catskills and Poconos, but at this time it appears that the high will be strong enough to keep most shower activity south of the area.
349 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday for the far northeast portions of the CWA as low pressure drifts into North Dakota. Upper level ridging will become more pronounced across the western U.
(The rest of tonight) Low pressure centered over the Southern High Plains will allow a persistent pressure gradient across much of ern OK and nwrn AR through tonight, which should keep the wind up some, and temperatures well above normal overnight. Some high clouds may spread into the area from the north and northwest tonight, but precip chances are very low with mid level ridge/associated warm mid level temperatures over our area.
640 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Ridge begins to flatten tomorrow, becoming stretched across the state. There is a weakness under the ridge moving from Louisiana back to the Middle Texas coast tonight, but with PWAT values under 1.
345 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Wyoming is currently sandwiched between high pressure persisting over New Mexico and a passing low over south-central Canada. Temperatures are a little cooler than yesterday after the front came through last night, but still quite warm.
631 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) The strong ~600dam H5 ridge continues to spread eastward toward our region this afternoon. Additionally, with limited return flow and boundary layer maintenance, expect dewpoints/RH values to be a bit on the lower side than we'd tend to expect.
Areas in the northeast will be in the low to mid 90s.
Some of the high resolution models are showing ongoing convection all night, albeit widely scattered in nature. Models show flat upper ridging with moderately strong zonal flow aloft for the CWA tonight and Wednesday. There is some CAPE around this evening, with the highest values along the eastern border.
The 500mb ridge will continue with a slight shift to more overhead as it centers near the New Mexico/Texas state line. A weak disturbance in the ridge tonight will bring precipitation chances to southeast Colorado with very little chances of rain making it to the far southern Texas Panhandle.
Expansive deep layer mean anticyclones are centered well east (Sargasso Sea) and west (Chihuahuan Desert) of Florida, while persistent cyclonic flow covers most of southern Canada and the northern tier of the United States.
Temps do get into the lower 100s across central GA Thu so will have to keep an eye on how things progress to see if a heat advisory will be needed for Thursday.
341 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Today and Tonight: A strengthening upper-level ridge will be sprawled from west to east across the Sun Belt region today, with the center of a 326 dam 700mb ridge sliding right over the Interstate 20 corridor in our area. Despite the mid- level ridge moving overhead and some drier air trying to mix beneath it, low-level flow will be off the Gulf of Mexico where dew points in the 76-78 range are widespread early this morning. Overnight lows will again be a few degrees warmer than normal, and it's expected that the dangerous heat will continue into tomorrow.
Behind the trough, the flow aloft will swing just enough to the northwest that the front will be pushed into the Mid-Atlantic region. A return to zonal flow is anticipated Thursday night and a surface cold front will swing through Ohio and reach PA sometime around dawn.
The high moisture content of the air mass as seen in the 00Z OHX sounding will make for very efficient rain production with these storms, and a uni-driectional wind profile will likely result in training cells. With the rain-cooled air mass and broken to overcast mid/high cloud cover, temperatures today will likely peak in the low to mid 80s in most spots.
1210 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) There will be little to no change in the synoptic pattern through the short term as 500mb ridging remains firmly in place across the region. Due to the persistent lack of rainfall, minimum dewpoints in the late afternoon and evening are actually verifying below the NBM's 10th percentile for many areas across south-central Texas, which is resulting in peak apparent temperatures that are very similar (if not slightly cooler) than peak air temperatures.
150 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Northerly low-level flow under a building weak ridge will bring mild weather across the forecast area today. Temperatures will warm up into the low to mid 80s which is slightly below normal for this time of year. Any activity that forms is expected to remain near the higher elevation and stay sub-severe.
In addition, the warm sector ahead of the cold front is narrow, and the storms will be traversing it, as opposed to moving directly into it with the July 13 event. They will begin to weaken after sunset, and will exit the region tonight as the cold front moves through. High pressure will build in Thursday with northwest winds and cooler temperatures.
The active pattern will continue tonight through at least Thursday night as ripples of energy traverse the northwest flow pattern between an upper level ridge over the western U. and the upper level trough across the eastern U.
341 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 High pressure will bring a mostly dry and less humid air mass to the region today into Thursday.
(Wednesday through Thursday night) Similar to what we mentioned above, 12Z guidance suggests that there will be no significant changes in the broader synoptic scale pattern across the TN Valley during the short term, with the subtropical ridge expected to remain centered across the southern High Plains on Wednesday/Wednesday night, before retrograding on Thursday/Thursday night as a northern stream trough tracks eastward across the Great Lakes.
950 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Temperatures will begin to trend warmer again Wednesday through the end of the week as high pressure builds over the region.
High pressure over the region will continue to bring hot temperatures and daily precipitation chances for much of the area through the weekend. High pressure ushering in Monsoonal moisture is already shifting into a less favorable location to help generate diurnal showers and storms.
Again, very little confidence exists regarding exactly which areas will be impacted and how significant it will be, but much like the previous night there will be a preference for areas along and south of I-70 and very near the advancing cold front.
1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Very warm, humid, but quiet conditions are expected overnight, as upper level ridging will remain anchored over the Srn Plains and Lower MS Valley through at least the next 24 hrs. In fact, the 03Z temps are running some 2-4 degrees warmer than what was observed 24hrs ago, after many locales especially across E TX/NW LA/extreme SW AR reached triple digits or hotter this afternoon.
(Today through Thursday) The upper ridge continues to be in place across the southern CONUS during the short-term of the period.
(Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas today as an upper level ridge continues to dominate our weather.
However, a short wave trough near the California coast is projected to move across Nevada and could direct some of that moisture into far south-central Idaho Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will be warner on Wednesday as highs will be near 100F in the lowest valleys. A deep ridge will continue to build over the region as a deep high develops over the southwest on Thursday, bringing dry conditions, diurnal winds, and temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal.
125 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 High pressure will bring a mostly dry and less humid air mass to the region Wednesday through much of Thursday.
452 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 A beautiful day is on tap as high pressure will be overhead today providing a break in the precipitation and the smoke today.
An upper trough swinging through the region is bringing cooler temps aloft, which is creating some instability for the cu development. Another sunny day is expected Wednesday with a bit warmer temperatures. we should reach the lower to mid 80s. and less cu development as the trough axis. and cooler temps aloft. A cold front will approach the state from the northwest Thursday. Cold front brings shower and thunderstorm potential Thursday with some severe weather risk late morning through the afternoon, especially in east central and southeast Michigan.
1032 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Wyoming is currently sandwiched between high pressure persisting over New Mexico and a passing low over south-central Canada. Temperatures are a little cooler than yesterday after the front came through last night, but still quite warm. After this brief reprieve from the heat, the high to our south will strengthen as flow amplifies across the country. Ensemble guidance is showing strong ridging returning to Wyoming by the end of the week. Wednesday will be a little cooler with quieter winds for the most part, though with continued shower and thunderstorm chances across southern Wyoming. By the end of the week, strong ridging will return to the area, returning hot and dry conditions to the are through the weekend.
(Today) Showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped along a convergence boundary across the lower OH River Valley, and have slowly begun to shift south over northern TN.
A cold front will move south of the region late in the week, bringing some drier air this weekend. The early morning surface analysis showed a cold front well to our north, extending from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the lower Great Lakes. Lows in the lower to mid 70s. Another day of strong heating will lead to highs in the lower to mid 90s.
1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 (The rest of tonight) Low pressure centered over the Southern High Plains will allow a persistent pressure gradient across much of ern OK and nwrn AR through tonight, which should keep the wind up some, and temperatures well above normal overnight. Some high clouds may spread into the area from the north and northwest tonight, but precip chances are very low with mid level ridge/associated warm mid level temperatures over our area.
The overall convective evolution remains highly uncertain, but with the glancing ascent coupled with the preexisting surface boundary, a few thunderstorms may develop during the mid-evening or early overnight hours - with the highest probability south of Interstate 70.
High pressure ridging over the Desert Southwest will amplify into the Northern Rockies through the coming weekend with hot and mostly dry weather.
An approaching cold front will trigger scattered thunderstorms late tonight into Thursday. followed by a return to cooler and drier conditions for the end of the week. The next weather-maker will be a cold front currently across the western Dakotas. Further north, the Dakotas cold front may help spark widely scattered storms across the KILX CWA after midnight. Barnes Cold front will advance eastward across central Illinois on Thursday. With dewpoints pooling in the lower and perhaps middle 70s ahead of the front, NAM suggests SBCAPEs may exceed 3000J/kg.
Warmer temps and more moisture expected today. A cold front with the wave is forecast to slide into the area later today and into the overnight.
1002 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Very warm, humid, but quiet conditions are expected overnight, as upper level ridging will remain anchored over the Srn Plains and Lower MS Valley through at least the next 24 hrs. In fact, the 03Z temps are running some 2-4 degrees warmer than what was observed 24hrs ago, after many locales especially across E TX/NW LA/extreme SW AR reached triple digits or hotter this afternoon.
230 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Current surface map places low across southeast Saskatchewan with weak cold front through the central Dakotas. Heading into the weekend, upper high becomes established over the Four Corners region with ridging extending through the northern Rockies/Plains. However, with greenness/moist surface soil across much of the forecast area, will trend forecast highs towards the lower/mid range of ensemble spread.
At the surface, nearly stationary cold front stretches from the OK Panhandle, across far Southern KS and into the Ozark region. Storms are expected to develop this afternoon from Central Nebraska down into Eastern CO along another cold front/trough. This activity is expected to remain intact as it tracks east and southeast this evening and looks to be aided by a mid level trough set to also move into the area. Weak cold front that moved through yesterday into the overnight hours has stalled south of KICT to near KCNU.
1051 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 A trough is situated over Ontario/Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes with a wave coming off of the eastern Rockies. High pressure stays over the Southern Plains/CONUS and western CONUS.
Upper level high pressure wl bcm more centered over the Mid-South/ARKLATEX region today, w/ gusty sfc S/Wrly winds continuing thru the afternoon.
With that in mind, did not really deviate much from high temperatures observed yesterday as the upper-level ridge continues to expand farther eastward today.
(Today through Thursday) Strong mid-level ridging extending from the south-central US will continue to build over the Florida peninsula through the short term period. Temperatures and heat indices will remain elevated on Wednesday and Thursday as high temperatures reach the low 90s and heat indices approach the 105-108 degree range across South FL.
Highs today will be a function of cloud cover and precipitation coverage with readings in the low/mid 80s currently forecast.
A cold front will move into the area over the weekend and focus showers and thunderstorms. Surface moisture will remain fairly high and will prevent much cooling, with similar lows falling into the low and mid 70s. General consensus among model guidance over the last couple runs is the ridge that will build over the area will not be quite as strong with heights still above average. A similar pattern is expected Thursday with upper ridging still centered to the west of the forecast area and NW flow continuing. SPC has placed the area in a slight risk, although there is some uncertainty as to the timing of storm initiation, with the earlier morning development, the lower the severe threat.
High pressure is over lower MI early this morning. Shallow 500mb ridging builds in thru midday. Max temps today a smidge warmer, mid 70s to lower 80s.
Model projections show a 925 mb thermal ridge building into the CWA today, sharpening as it does. Values are shown to rise into the low 20 deg C range later today which supports high temperatures going into the low to mid 80s. - Risk for strong/severe storms Thursday A cold front will be dropping southeastward through the zones during the day. From the 00z SPC HREF run, MU CAPE values are forecast to reach into the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with the highest values over southeast parts of the CWA.
242 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 The synoptic situation features significant ridging to our southwest and near normal midlevel heights across our area in northwesterly flow. Later in the night, as the aforementioned trough approaches and large scale ascent increased, the capping subsident layer will be lifted some. This will be most likely with a quicker and less amplified midlevel trough. This would be most likely with a lagging and more amplified midlevel trough.
(Today and tonight) Heat will again be an issue for most of the area this afternoon as a mid-level ridge builds eastward over the Southern Plains from the Desert Southwest. Evapotranspiration will prevent dewpoints from getting down into the low 60s. The highest heat indices will be across southern and south central Oklahoma, where an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect. Overnight lows will be a little bit cooler than previous nights, bottoming out in the mid 70s for most locations.
Very muggy conditions can be expected, with lows only dropping in the low to mid 70s. Heat indices of 105 or above can be expected across much of Central Alabama by Thursday afternoon as highs top out in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
HREF probabilities support a 40 to 70 percent chance of thunder across the mountains south of the Snake Plain with a 10 to 40 percent chance across the lower Snake Plain extending north along the Wyoming border to the Big Holes. Under the increasing influence of a ridge of high pressure ridge for Thursday, afternoon highs will be slightly warmer across CNTRL Idaho with highs regionwide expected to be in the 80s to mid 90s as synoptic winds remain light.
1239 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 An upper level trough will remain west of the area overnight. A weak cold front will cross the region Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area Thursday and slide east of the region Thursday night.
(Today through Thursday) The ridge that has plagued the area will continue to stretch across Texas. While this will not result in much change, it looks like temperatures could be a degree or two cooler across much of the area today and Thursday.
Meanwhile, upper level trough along the Eastern Seaboard slides east into Thursday. This should allow upper level ridge of high pressure to build from the west over the Sunshine State. In term of convection, the highest chances are expected to be over interior locations as both sea breezes collide in the afternoon/evening. Afternoon temperatures climb in the low to mid 90s with heat indices to around 107 degrees. Area of high pressure over central Florida will keep south to southeasterly winds over the waters today and Thursday.
Strong mid-upper level ridge centered over the Desert SW/New Mexico will continue to expand and move eastward across the Southern Plains today, before becoming elongated later in the afternoon and slightly retreating westward again on Thursday. At the sfc, high pressure anchored over the southern CONUS/northern Gulf continues to bring a warmer and more humid airmass into the region embedded in the southerly flow. Dry air mixing down in the afternoon could keep dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s across our western counties (slightly drier but warmer conditions).
The main upper level system and surface cold front will move across the area late this afternoon and tonight, bringing a chance of thunderstorms. Lows should range from the 50s north to the lower to middle 60s across east- central Wisconsin. Some instability showers and storms are expected into the late afternoon, with the highest chances across northeast Wisconsin.
1157 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Ridge begins to flatten tomorrow, becoming stretched across the state. There is a weakness under the ridge moving from Louisiana back to the Middle Texas coast tonight, but with PWAT values under 1.
736 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Today and Tonight: A strengthening upper-level ridge will be sprawled from west to east across the Sun Belt region today, with the center of a 326 dam 700mb ridge sliding right over the Interstate 20 corridor in our area. Despite the mid- level ridge moving overhead and some drier air trying to mix beneath it, low-level flow will be off the Gulf of Mexico where dew points in the 76-78 range are widespread early this morning. Overnight lows will again be a few degrees warmer than normal, and it's expected that the dangerous heat will continue into tomorrow.
616 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 (Today through Thursday) The ridge that has plagued the area will continue to stretch across Texas. While this will not result in much change, it looks like temperatures could be a degree or two cooler across much of the area today and Thursday.
426 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Dewpoints across the region have responded to the increase in moisture wrapping around the high pressure center parked over the Desert Southwest this morning. Cloudy skies and dewpoints near 50 degrees across the region have kept overnight lows warmer than average. Shower activity will diminish some on Thursday as the high pressure center builds back to the west and the ridge begins to amplify northward, closing off access to the moisture tap.
525 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 A trend toward a cooler, more unsettled weather pattern will begin to unfold today as a backdoor cold front advances to the south and west across the high plains through the day. Given the much cooler, extremely moist boundary layer, would anticipate very heavy rain & possible flash flooding as the primary hazard instead of large hail and/or damaging winds.
648 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 A beautiful day is on tap as high pressure will be overhead today providing a break in the precipitation and the smoke today.
423 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be gusty northwest winds behind a cold FROPA, cooler temperatures, and chances for showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Currently, stacked low pressure over far southeastern Saskatchewan propagating southeast into the Northern Plains early this morning. Much cooler as well with daytime highs in the 70s. With the upper level low well to the east of North Dakota by Thursday night, northwesterly flow will begin to dominate as a fairly robust upper level ridge across much of the western CONUS begins to amplify and slowly move east.
546 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas today as an upper level ridge continues to dominate our weather.
400 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 A trend toward a cooler, more unsettled weather pattern will begin to unfold today as a backdoor cold front advances to the south and west across the high plains through the day. Given the much cooler, extremely moist boundary layer, would anticipate very heavy rain & possible flash flooding as the primary hazard instead of large hail and/or damaging winds.
309 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 WY remains pressed between the ridge across the southwestern US and the trough sweeping across Saskatchewan into Manitoba today. Activity will build tonight into Thursday as a larger buckle in the ridge flows through the same area. Showers will be more numerous across the state THursday, focused still on southern WY, but will help enhance the peak heating thunderstorms that will fire along the higher elevations before moving east.
Latest surface observations and visible satellite imagery is showing mostly sunny skies, light southeast winds and temps already in the low 80's. The ridge axis has lifted north across central Florida for today and Thursday, bringing a shift in winds to a south-southeasterly flow and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon.
740 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 (Today through Thursday) Strong mid-level ridging extending from the south-central US will continue to build over the Florida peninsula through the short term period. Temperatures and heat indices will remain elevated on Wednesday and Thursday as high temperatures reach the low 90s and heat indices approach the 105-108 degree range across South FL.