Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
651 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023 With a large upper level low spinning over southeast Canada over the next few days, cool and cloudy conditions continue through mid week. A large upper low has stalled over Southeast Canada just north of the Great Lakes. The low retrograded farther west than what models initially had so winds through the boundary layer are more westerly to even a little southwesterly so that has helped shift any lake effect precipitation well north of our area. Chances were kept though in the Southern Tug Hill though if the low continues its slow trek west than the chances of precip may even need to be removed there. Tomorrow night there is less wind though day time highs will get to be about 5 degrees warmer so lows will likely be similar to tonight.
A cold front moved through the area this evening, reaching Boise around 8PM MDT.
This cloud cover (and the warmer temps earlier today) will keep lows 8-10 degrees warmer than last night with most locations bottoming out in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
504 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023 With a large upper level low spinning over southeast Canada over the next few days, cool and cloudy conditions continue through mid week. A large upper low has stalled over Southeast Canada just north of the Great Lakes. The low retrograded farther west than what models initially had so winds through the boundary layer are more westerly to even a little southwesterly so that has helped shift any lake effect precipitation well north of our area. Chances were kept though in the Southern Tug Hill though if the low continues its slow trek west than the chances of precip may even need to be removed there. Tomorrow night there is less wind though day time highs will get to be about 5 degrees warmer so lows will likely be similar to tonight.
A southeasterly breeze will keep overnight temperatures above freezing across much of western North Dakota, but the eastern two thirds of the state are likely to fall into the mid 20s to lower 30s. Current surface analysis places high pressure stretching across Manitoba through eastern North Dakota, with modest trough to the lee of the Rockies. Upper level analysis places broad deep low just to the south of James Bay along the Ontario/Quebec border, with a narrow ridge over eastern Montana into Saskatchewan. Rather quiet weather remains over our area, though some cumulus have formed over eastern portions of our area in very broad cyclonic flow on the back side of the aforementioned upper low.
KEY MESSAGES: - Freezing to near freezing temperatures tonight into Tuesday morning.
A trailing, moisture-starved cold front will settle south across southern VA and NC late Tue through early Wed. The cloudiness was associated with a weak clipper low pressure moving east across VA. An occluded cyclone near the srn tip of James Bay will fill and weaken and promote rising heights and gradually relaxing cyclonic flow across the middle Atlantic, while also allowing a strong srn stream jet to bulge nwd and across the mid-South and srn middle Atlantic.
We'll see a recently passed surface cold front continue to sag southward and eastward in the near term, as high pressure builds across the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley. This occurs as the front's parent upper cyclone is closed and rotating in nearly stationary fashion over the Great Lakes. This helps return flow southerlies establish here, and what ensues is a northward lifting (now) warm front.
Key Messages: * Another couple days of dry/quiet weather A large closed off upper low over southeast Canada will act like a flow pattern block for a couple days over the CONUS.
Multiple waterspouts have been recorded today with a few spotted near a couple showers with observed mesocyclones. After another day of lingering over the Keys, the frontal boundary is expected to be dragged north Tuesday night by developing low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico. As this low strengthens, it will push to the north and then northeast with the frontal boundary in tow.
Dew points along the I-74 corridor are in the lower to mid 30s which will be close to the overnight lows, while south of the current Frost Advisory, dew points are in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.
Ascent ahead of the trough axis is producing bands of high clouds that are beginning to spread into our area.
417 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023 Key Messages: - A bit warmer tomorrow with overall pleasant conditions expected.
Key Messages: -Freezing temperatures are expected to overspread much of the region tonight, with many locations potentially dropping into the mid-20s. For Tuesday, temperatures climb above freezing relatively quickly around sunrise, with daytime highs expected to reach the upper 40s to lower 50s.
The upper low across SE Canada continues to influence weather across the Great Lakes in the short term.
907 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023 Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to lower 70s. Because of this, temperatures are warmer at this time. A weak cold front is expected to come through and result in slightly cooler air tonight with lows starting in the upper 40s. By the end of the week, another cold front will bring in rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm throughout the MidSouth. Following the cold front, cooler temperatures and drier air conditions are expected into the weekend.
Weak onshore winds in the lower levels could still allow a few showers to shift just onshore along the coast of southeast St. Light northerly flow at the surface will continue to usher in some cooler air overnight, especially NW of the I-4 corridor, where low temps late tonight will be even a tad cooler than early this morning, in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
743 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023 Aviation The upper low across SE Canada continues to influence weather across the Great Lakes in the short term.
Pattern Synopsis: Vertically stacked low pressure will continue to pinwheel over southeast Canada and the Great Lakes through tonight.
642 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023 Key Messages: - A bit warmer tomorrow with overall pleasant conditions expected.
Key Messages: *Frost Advisory in effect late tonight into early Tuesday AM for most of the outlook area except the far SE portion where forecast temperatures are a bit warmer. *Areas of frost/near freezing temperatures are possible in the north Tuesday night. Low temps are expected to drop into the low to mid 30s generally along and northwest of a line from Memphis, MO to Princeton, IL. Low temps in the low/mid 30s north of highway 30 could lead to another round of frost.
555 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023 Key Messages: - Widespread frost tonight, freezing temps for a few.
However, there is quite a bit of veering through the lower levels and winds become southwesterly by 850 mb. Short Term Update - A weak surface flow will remain across the Keys through the overnight period due to the ridge to our north and weak troughing over the Bahamas. Weak ridging along the gulf and southeast Atlantic coast and a sloppy trough over the Bahamas will maintain light breezes through the overnight period.
Rain-free conditions will continue through tomorrow with highs rebounding into the low to mid 80s for much of the area.
618 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023 An anomalously deep longwave trough over eastern North America will support mostly northwest flow aloft over Mid-America the next few days. Deepening lee troughing will increase southeasterly winds some for Tuesday.
Have adjusted trends accordingly, but think temps will level off as we progress through the overnight, so have not made any significant changes to the low temperature forecast.
714 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023 With a large upper level low spinning over southeast Canada over the next few days, cool and cloudy conditions continue through mid week. A large upper low has stalled over Southeast Canada just north of the Great Lakes. The low retrograded farther west than what models initially had so winds through the boundary layer are more westerly to even a little southwesterly so that has helped shift any lake effect precipitation well north of our area. Chances were kept though in the Southern Tug Hill though if the low continues its slow trek west than the chances of precip may even need to be removed there. Tomorrow night there is less wind though day time highs will get to be about 5 degrees warmer so lows will likely be similar to tonight.
720 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023 A large and nearly stationary upper low will be located between James Bay and Georgian Bay over the next 36 to 48 hours before drifting gradually east to Nova Scotia late this week.
A few showers will continue to rotate through the Northern Rockies this morning out in front of a low pressure system.
Increased moisture and an active pattern will provide chances for rain through the end of the week before a cold front ushers in drier air for the weekend. Today and Tonight: One more full day and night of dry conditions should occur as high pressure across the region begins to move out of the area. More widespread cirrus clouds should not arrive until after peak heating this afternoon, so with some low-level warm advection across the region, temperatures will be able to rise into the lower 80s. Lows also warmer, around 60.
445 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Current water vapor imagery continues to show a persistent low pressure system centered over the Ontario/Quebec province line early this morning. There also won't be much change in temperatures for today and tonight with highs topping off in the low to upper 40s and lows generally in the mid to upper 30s. The exceptions will be along the lakeshores and interior west where it will be warmer and cooler, respectively.
1148 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023 An anomalously deep longwave trough over eastern North America will support mostly northwest flow aloft over Mid-America the next few days. Deepening lee troughing will increase southeasterly winds some for Tuesday.
Evening water vapor/upper air hand analysis indicates closed low retrograding over central Canada towards the Great Lakes/Hudson Bay, while omega block is situated over the Intermountain West north into Alberta/Saskatchewan Provinces. Dewpoints are expected to be a touch higher into the low 50s in the west while mid-upper 40s east of I-55.
The previous forecast high temperatures were on track and only minor adjustments were made as the position of a warm front will result in a temperature gradient from northeast to southeast. Temperatures will fall back into the 50s to lower 60s tonight, with the warmer readings in south central Kansas where increasing moisture will hold temperatures up. Given the downslope flow west of the dry line, expect upper 80s to perhaps lower 90s for highs, with slightly cooler readings farther east in the moist air.
335 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Key Messages: - Frost or freeze potential will be higher Wednesday morning (Frost chance 30-60%), with the highest probabilities from southeast MN into southwest WI.
1145 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023 Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to lower 70s. Because of this, temperatures are warmer at this time. A weak cold front is expected to come through and result in slightly cooler air tonight with lows starting in the upper 40s. By the end of the week, another cold front will bring in rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm throughout the MidSouth. Following the cold front, cooler temperatures and drier air conditions are expected into the weekend.
(Today through Wednesday Night ) An upper level ridge is over the Rockies this morning with a large upper low over the Great Lakes region. The upper low will spin over the Great Lakes through Wednesday as the ridge moves east and another upper low enters the Pacific Northwest. Expect some mid and high level clouds today central and south, south of a weak cold front. This front will lift north tonight as a warm front. High pressure will again be over the area Wednesday.
In contrast, locations in the Lower keys experienced temperatures reaching the upper 70s. Tonight and Wednesday, a stationary front positioned over southern Florida will gradually retrograde as a low pressure system forms in the western Gulf of Mexico. Furthermore, the presence of the subtropical jet will contribute to the low pressure development. Closer to home, an area of high pressure in the Caribbean is expected to strengthen and expand westward, covering the Florida Keys and parts of southern Florida.
Clearer sky in the west/southwest fcst from Devils Lake to Forman will allow lows to drop below freezing by late tonight.
(Today) Warm front lifts northward through the forecast area today with breezy and warm conditions by afternoon.
Strong winds Wednesday will lead to a cooling trend through the end of the week before warmer temperatures return by the weekend. A drier air mass will be ushered in on Tuesday on the wings of a approaching dry trough putting an end to any shower threat. The trough will also cool temperatures.
Today and Tonight: One more full day and night of dry conditions should occur as high pressure across the region begins to move out of the area. More widespread cirrus clouds should not arrive until after peak heating this afternoon, so with some low-level warm advection across the region, temperatures will be able to rise into the lower 80s. However, deeper moisture will lift north as the low moves over northern Florida and into the Atlantic.
Upper troughing advancing from the central Plains will nudge a warm front through in the overnight hours tonight. This feature seems to be slowing down just a bit run-to-run, and low-end precip chances linger now through Wednesday morning with the higher chances remaining over the northwestern and northern counties in the CWA.
224 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 *** Glasgow radar remains down due to hardware upgrade and replacement until roughly October 16th *** Upper ridge will be over eastern Montana for one more day today with warm and dry weather. Forecast confidence is increasing for a significant cold front pushing this direction from a large and strong trough of low pressure over the Pacific NW. The cold front move through area tonight and Wednesday as the upper trough ahead of the low moves into the forecast area. Rain will gradually spread into most of NE Montana Wednesday and Wednesday Night with the highest rainfall amounts expected to be in the southwest.
1007 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023 Key Messages: - Widespread frost tonight, freezing temps for a few.
Temperatures will be warmest in the Big Country with highs in the mid 80s, with the cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 70 south along I-10, where the clouds will be thickest. Winds speeds overnight will be increasing in the Big Country as a lee trough along the Texas/New Mexico state line strengthens.
-Much cooler weather returns by this weekend. Flow aloft remains from the northwest as the region is positioned on the southwestern edge of an expansive low pressure system centered south of Hudson Bay. Isentropic ascent as a warm front approaches from the south could result in scattered rain showers developing tomorrow afternoon and evening. The warm front should move through the CWA on Wednesday as low pressure continues to deepen west of the area. Temperatures are expected to warm into the low 80s as dew points surge into the low 60s.
This cloud cover (and the warmer temps earlier today) will keep lows 8-10 degrees warmer than last night with most locations bottoming out in the upper 40s to lower 50s. As the upper level low continues to retrograde well to our north, gradient winds begin to relax with both sustained winds and gusts below 15 MPH. Tuesday holds our last dry profile in the short term a gulf low pressure looks to push NE through the short term period. The aformentioned low pressure officially named Tropical Storm Lidia, originated in the Pacific crossing into Mexico late Tuesday and reemerging in the Gulf late Wednesday.
Key Messages: *Frost Advisory in effect late tonight into early Tuesday AM for most of the outlook area except the far SE portion where forecast temperatures are a bit warmer. *Areas of frost/near freezing temperatures are possible in the north Tuesday night. Low temps are expected to drop into the low to mid 30s generally along and northwest of a line from Memphis, MO to Princeton, IL. Low temps in the low/mid 30s north of highway 30 could lead to another round of frost. Wednesday A warm front is expected to become very active in the morning through Wednesday night, with PWAT values over the 90th percentile for October 11th.
We'll see a recently passed surface cold front continue to sag southward and eastward in the near term, as high pressure builds across the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley. This occurs as the front's parent upper cyclone is closed and rotating in nearly stationary fashion over the Great Lakes. This helps return flow southerlies establish here, and what ensues is a northward lifting (now) warm front. Dew points rise coincident with the warm front's lift, increasing thru the 40s Tuesday night and into the 50s Wednesday. The lift/instability associated with the warm front is elevated. Winds look to average 20-25 kts across the lower 3 KM. Better surface instability stays north and west of us, as it is more closely synced to the low center that evolves/develops out of the lee of the Rockies/broad troffing there.
207 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023 A weak cold front will drop south and stall over North Carolina today into tonight.
At the surface, weak high pressure ridging across northern Florida will favor light northeast to east flow, allowing temperatures and humidity to warm up from the cool and dry pattern of the last few days. On Wednesday and Wednesday night, a developing area of low pressure over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will lift northeast into northern Florida.
205 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023 A large and nearly stationary upper low will be located between James Bay and Georgian Bay over the next 36 to 48 hours before drifting gradually east to Nova Scotia late this week.
Today should be a rinse and repeat of yesterday as we'll remain on the periphery of an upper low centered to our northwest. The upper low will begin to move ever so slowly eastward through the day, so a few additional rain showers may develop over northern/central VT in the afternoon. Highs will be a touch warmer than today, generally low 50s to low 60s.
The next system currently spinning off the British Columbia Coast will bring more widespread winds and significantly cooler temps late Tuesday and Wednesday. Ascent ahead of the trough axis is producing bands of high clouds that are beginning to spread into our area. On Wednesday, the passage of a cold front will shift winds to the northwest.
WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of a weakening upper level ridge across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a weak cold front extends from eastern Colorado southeast into southwest Oklahoma. This will help draw warmer air into western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures up into the upper teens(C) in central Kansas to up near 25C in extreme southwest Kansas. Relatively dry conditions are forecast early in the period as medium range ensembles indicate a weak upper level ridge continuing to break down as it shifts east through the Central Plains Wednesday, giving way to a zonal flow aloft across the Western High Plains.
Although a blocking pattern continues across the western hemisphere, there are signs of realignment with strong Pacific jet energy and a series of deep negative PV anomalies poised to move into the NW Conus over the next 48 hours. With the leading edge of jet energy already over the coastline, the persistent weak cyclonic circulation over Arizona trapped under the western Conus ridge is finally being dislodged.
1203 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Key Messages: - A bit warmer tomorrow with overall pleasant conditions expected.
Discussion: One more day of widespread pleasant weather as ridging remains over the state. By late Tuesday morning, the main trough will begin to push in. By Tuesday evening precipitation chances will become more widespread as heights fall further under the progressing trough. A cold front will sweep from west to east across the entire area through Wednesday morning. The low should become closed Wednesday evening as it passes over southern Wyoming.
133 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023 A large and nearly stationary upper low will be located between James Bay and Georgian Bay over the next 36 to 48 hours before drifting gradually east to Nova Scotia late this week.
Despite ample moisture, warmer 500mb temperatures and weak lapse rates will lead to another afternoon of isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers, with the best chance along the east coast metro areas in the late afternoon and evening.
Added some isolated TS across our western counties later this afternoon and into the evening as light westerly steering flow and easterly outflow propagations help carry some of this high-based convection eastward - at least until CIN overwhelms this activity around sunset.
336 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023 With a large upper level low spinning over southeast Canada over the next few days, cool and cloudy conditions continue through mid week. A large upper low has stalled over Southeast Canada just north of the Great Lakes. The low retrograded farther west than what models initially had so winds through the boundary layer are more westerly to even a little southwesterly so that has helped shift any lake effect precipitation well north of our area. Chances were kept though in the Southern Tug Hill though if the low continues its slow trek west than the chances of precip may even need to be removed there. Tomorrow night there is less wind though day time highs will get to be about 5 degrees warmer so lows will likely be similar to tonight.
402 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023 High pressure will remain in control through the rest of the week. Low pressure advancing northeast from the Gulf of Mexico combined with a cold front from the west will bring a chance of rain to the area late Fri into Sat. Latest surface analysis shows high pressure stretching from the Gulf to the northeast coast. A low is situated over northern WV with a cold front draped across the Appalachians.
The persistent northwesterly flow aloft that we've had the past few days has transitioned more zonal today, with temperatures expected to be similar to yesterday, with highs in the lower to middle 80s for most. The aforementioned disturbance along with diurnal heating will generate showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas during the afternoon, which will then progress eastward across the plains through the evening.
Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 80s. On Wednesday, as the front to our north lifts, we will also see a warm front slide northward from the Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure system that develops on the west side of the front will pump a large amount of moisture over the warm front and we will see quite a bit of isentropic lift/over-running by Wednesday afternoon and through Wednesday night.
The upper low across SE Canada continues to influence weather across the Great Lakes in the short term. However any sunshine we may receive will be short lived because a Plains low will be pushing a warm front north through IL/IN and clouds will spread in from the south late in the day.
This is due in part to the finally-departing Hudson Bay low, which will allow for a shallow ridge across the Great Plains today.
early AM water vapor satellite imagery shows that the local area remains under cyclonic flow aloft from a large upper low rotating over southeast Canada. Temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 30s in Jo Daviess, Stephenson, and Carroll counties in IL and another frost advisory may be needed for the day shift to consider.