Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
307 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Highs over the plains are in the lower to mid 90s currently. The upper ridge is progged to move slowly eastward tonight and Tuesday with moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft. For temperatures, Tuesday highs are 2-3 C cooler than this afternoon's. We'll continue to receive moisture through northwesterly as an upper level high pressure weakens south of our CWA.
The exact positioning of high pressure system as it passes over southeastern WI leads to some uncertainty in the wind direction for Tuesday, but the quiet synoptic pattern should set the stage for lake breeze development.
A quiet night is in store with only a few high clouds to be expected under increasing high pressure influence from the west.
The cold front that brought increased winds and cooler temperatures on Tuesday is on its way east. Visible on satellite water vapor imagery this morning are a stationary closed low pressure system off the coast of northern British Columbia and a closed high pressure system over the southwestern US. Over the next few days, these two features will work together to amplify a ridge of high pressure over the northwestern US. Ensemble model solutions are in good agreement for the amplitude of the ridge to peak this weekend with the axis of the ridge over western Montana.
Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing a large upper level trough extending from north of the Great Lakes through the southeastern US, while broad high pressure ridges over the Southwest. The surface reflection of this trough is forcing the sub-tropical ridge axis to remain over southern Florida, setting up westerly flow across the forecast area today.
151 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023 A building ridge from the west will provide drier than normal conditions.
313 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Currently have upper ridging over the Desert Southwest with upper trough stretching from the Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, cold front extends generally along I-70 across MO and KS. We look to remain in unseasonably strong west/northwest flow for Thu with upper ridging starting to expand into the southern High Plains. Upper ridging is then expected to strengthen its grip over the Desert Southwest along with the Southern/Central Rockies for the weekend. In addition, after unseasonably cooler temps for Fri, we will see a slow warm-up through the weekend into the start of the work week, with highs by Mon in the upper 90s area wide.
1149 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 As a cold front slips southward through tonight, the persistent haze is expected to fade away by morning. 37 Main concerns in this period: 1) Convection through this evening, then MCS trends for Tuesday 2) Eventual waning of the haze/smoke layer Early afternoon weather map shows the cold front is located roughly from the northern St. Will concentrate the highest PoP's Tuesday night south of a Rushville- Paris line, and have lowered them north of I-74.
Another short wave trough will help trigger afternoon convection, which could again last into tonight given its late timing, However, it may clear through quickly enough this time for more dense valley fog before dawn Tuesday.
Upper level ridging looks to be the defining feature with occasional zonal flow to occasionally mitigate temperatures. On the bright side, current deterministic models don't build the ridge directly over the area.
A mid-level trough across the Great Lakes and Northeast will shift slowly east through the day, sending a weak cold front slowly west-to-east across PA. Blended NBM with yesterdays persistence for maxT today with readings likely staying pretty close to yesterdays highs in the upper 70s in the Alleghenies to upper 80s in the lower Susq. Lows tonight will range from the low 50s in the NW to the mid 60s in the SE.
We should see quite a bit of sunshine this morning, helping temperatures jump into the lower to middle 80s already by midday. High temperatures will reach the 85 to 90 degree range, and with dew points in the lower to middle 70s, heat indices will reach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees across southeast Missouri, far west Kentucky and southwest Illinois, with lower readings to the east. By late today and especially tonight, models really ramp up the convection across our region as low pressure moving along the front pushes eastward toward the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. The low will push the front into a bit more of a northwest to southeast orientation.
200 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Cold front will move to the east this morning while a stacked surface and upper low moves into Saskatchewan. With a tight surface gradient, look for gusty west to NW winds and cooler temperatures over forecast area today. A dry slot to the south of this low will allow for mostly clear skies tonight.
1251 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Upper level high pressure is fully in control of the weather across the forecast area with clear skies courtesy of subsidence from the upper ridge. The center of this ridge has shifted eastward to western New Mexico and will shift a but farther eastward tomorrow.
Satellite data this morning depicted continued troughing along the eastern seaboard downstream of an anomalous ridge anchored over the southwest US.
1136 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues The stubborn upper-level high pressure is expected to so expanded eastward through tomorrow night increasing subsidence and promoting slightly warmer temperatures than today.
Temperatures were lower today due to the passage of a cold front earlier in the day, and that trend will continue into Tuesday with highs near normal.
Temperatures will be cooler today behind the frontal passage with seasonable high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
For one, a surface boundary has settled from Kansas City to Boonville, where cooler and drier air has already advected into the area (MCI 64 Td; IXD 70 Td).
(Today and tonight) Heat will continue to be the main story through the day today as the more pronounced mid-level ridge moves towards the east. Temperatures will eventually drop back into the upper 70s overnight, and dewpoints in the upper 50s will help to make it feel much cooler than previous nights.
150 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023 A cold front will push through the region tonight and Tuesday with the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure over the region will continue to bring hot temperatures and daily precipitation chances for much of the area through the weekend.
The passage of the cold front has begun to clear up the hazy skies caused by smoke from wildfires in west and central Canada by pushing the smoke field to the east. The upper level pattern into the midweek will see two mid/upper troughs, one across the southern Canadian Rockies and the other over the northern Great Lakes, and the southwestern CONUS high pressure ridge.
Boundary layer temperatures ranging from 25-29C will result in sfc temperatures in the mid to upper 80s along and behind the trough passage. Along and ahead of the trough will be the focus for afternoon/early evening thunderstorms as a narrow ribbon of instability (2-3K J/KG) interacts with 40-50kts of 0-6km shear in addition to ample sfc and upper level forcing.
Higher humidities and lighter winds eased the fire weather concerns late this afternoon and the Red Flag Warning for the Lower Columbia Basin of Washington and Oregon and the Kittitas Valley was expired early.
1213 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) The 598+ dm upper ridge centered over the southwest U. 850mb temperatures are also forecasted to be a couple of degrees warmer than today. The upper level ridge, which is currently centered near the AZ/NM line, is expected to expand eastward while flattening as an upper level trough moves east across the northern CONUS and into the Great Lakes area.
A dry post-frontal airmass is in place and high pressure will continue to build in overhead, suppressing any convection well to our south and west.
1252 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023 A cold front will push through the region tonight and Tuesday with the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.
A cold front continues to settle southward toward the Ohio River early this morning. Elsewhere around the area, expect partly sunny and dry weather with afternoon highs mostly in the lower 80s.
212 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Current surface map places weak low across eastern Montana with trough extending into eastern Wyoming. If a thunderstorm does develop along the trough this afternoon/evening, sufficient bulk shear/buoyancy to support large hail.
320 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Key Messages: - Drier and slightly warmer today.
500 mb low over central Alberta with well defined 500 mb trough southeast thru central into southeastern Saskatchewan and entering far western ND.
(This evening through Tuesday) The 598+ dm upper ridge centered over the southwest U. 850mb temperatures are also forecasted to be a couple of degrees warmer than today.
General weak northwesterly flow exists across the Lower Michigan and will remain the case through at least the end of the week. Composite mean upper level trough axis will push eastward just enough to allow a modest anticyclonically curved (initially) jetlet into the northern basin of Lake Michigan. There is enough hires evidence to suggest some shower activity possible in the higher terrain of northern Lower Michigan with some potential help of convergence near Lake Huron.
Satellite data this morning depicted continued troughing along the eastern seaboard downstream of an anomalous ridge anchored over the southwest US. The mid/upr short wave trough axis currently just west of the mountains will move east and gradually cross our area during the late afternoon. Given the dry air that we're currently seeing to our west and southwest, the west to southwest flow ahead of the trough axis won't be advecting much moisture into our area. As such, with the arrival of the trough axis and assoc large scale ascent, coupled with cooling aloft as noted on forecast soundings, locations that see the highest dwpts. By Tuesday evening the trough axis should be to our east, thus look for partly cloudy and dry weather for Tuesday night.
However, some AC cigs may develop along the tail end of this trough axis as slides SE into Srn AR late, possibly reaching far NE LA by or shortly after daybreak. While triple digits were observed this afternoon across the Wrn sections of E TX this afternoon, these temps may spread a bit farther E Tuesday as the upper ridge begins to expand E into the region especially during the afternoon and evening. 15 (06Z TAFS) For the 18/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected to prevail under the increasing influence of an upper-level ridge of high pressure.
However, some AC cigs may develop along the tail end of this trough axis as slides SE into Srn AR late, possibly reaching far NE LA by or shortly after daybreak. While triple digits were observed this afternoon across the Wrn sections of E TX this afternoon, these temps may spread a bit farther E Tuesday as the upper ridge begins to expand E into the region especially during the afternoon and evening.
Cooler temperatures for the weekend with very low rain chances. will be dominated by a trough through this forecast period. The trough and associated instability and abundant moisture will aid in thunderstorm development west of the forecast area each afternoon through the night starting Tuesday night. By the weekend, the trough deepens enough to push a frontal boundary well into Georgia and Alabama. Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 74 94 75 / 20 20 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 72 89 73 / 30 40 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 89 71 88 73 / 40 50 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 67 83 69 / 30 50 60 60.
1018 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2023 High pressure is trying to hold on today as the ridge axis passes through Wyoming. There is some decent high cloud cover, which could keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than earlier forecasts. A strong surface pressure gradient currently extends across the area as a cold front moves east from western Wyoming. Given the low humidity, this will create elevated fire weather conditions for most, with critical conditions across central and southern Wyoming where humidity will drop into the lower teens. The ridge is not the only player in today's forecast game as a trough across the northwest begins to flatten it. Current observations are showing temperature/dew point spreads ranging from the 40s on the lower end to over 70 degrees (KRKS), so the potential for severe outflow wind is certainly there today.
(Today and tonight) Upper-level high pressure remains in control of our weather today as it continues to nose closer to the forecast area. This will result in even warmer temperatures today under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures at 850 mb are forecasted to be slightly cooler than what we were expecting this time yesterday which should keep high temperatures between 105 and 109 on the Caprock and near 110 degrees east of the Caprock escarpment.
A mid-level trough across the Great Lakes and Northeast will shift slowly east through the day, sending a weak cold front slowly west-to-east across PA. Blended NBM with yesterdays persistence for maxT today with readings likely staying pretty close to yesterdays highs in the upper 70s in the Alleghenies to upper 80s in the lower Susq. Lows tonight will range from the low 50s in the NW to the mid 60s in the SE. Isolated to widely sct t-storms will focus on the southern portion of the fcst area Wednesday as aforementioned front initially sinks south of the MD line before returning northward as q-stationary/warm front Wed.
A cold front will be driven south Today across the area, seemingly enhanced by a decaying MCS across southwest Nebraska and the Kansas state line. A look at the various wind/temp and light QPF fields from the short term models support the idea of a cooler airmass working farther south with those models showing this convective activity this morning. The NBM still generates some minimum criterion apparent temperature values to support the the heat advisory this afternoon, and even at that the cooler advection may bring a quicker end to the elevated heat indices in the southeast counties by the late afternoon.
859 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Expect dry and sunny conditions for the next few days, as an upper level ridge of high pressure starts to build over Montana.
- Warming up Wednesday Today will be slightly cooler than normal as and 850 mb thermal trough tracks through the region.
With that in mind, today's high temperature forecast, the mid 90s, is a few degrees cooler than the NBM. Should clouds be limited and smoke be diluted enough, we could realize the highs NBM put out, which are the mid to upper 90s.
534 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Key Messages: - Drier and slightly warmer today. Today and Tonight: The 500 mb closed low which has been in control of the area's weather during the several days will move northeast from Ontario into Quebec. These are just a couple of degrees below the seasonable highs in the lower and mid-80s. While the 0-6 km shear look favorable the potential of a few supercells, there is plenty of uncertainty on the CAPES ahead of the cold front on Wednesday night.
This activity is expected to continue through the late Tuesday morning period as more high clouds over northern Texas push to the south and southwest following the upper level flow of the subtropical high pressure centered over New Mexico.
Highs will be in the middle 70s north to the lower to middle 80s south.
The large-scale flow pattern across North America features a persistent, expansive, deep, cyclonic gyre over southern Canada and the Great Lakes, with a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the Desert Southwest. Another deep layer mean anticyclone was centered over the subtropical North Atlantic. The Atlantic anticyclone has shifted a bit westward during the last 24 hours. In the lower troposphere, a discernible tropical wave/trough in the easterlies was moving through Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea, maintained by a tradewind surge brought on by a fortifying subtropical anticyclone. Locally, a weak high pressure ridge had developed westward across southern Florida to the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure builds in through the week leading to gradual warming to above-normal temperatures by the weekend. (Today and tonight) It's a quiet night across the Bay Area with temperatures running about 5 to 10 degrees cooler tonight than compared to this same time last night as cold air advection helps to reduce temperatures.
427 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Today and Tonight: A strengthening upper-level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will build eastward today, with mid-level height rises over our forecast area contributing to less clouds aloft and warmer temperatures at the surface this afternoon. I didn't go quite as aggressive for warming today as some guidance, but temps should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. With the strengthening ridge building in from the west, this thunderstorm activity is more likely to remain north and east of our forecast area, but we will have to monitor trends for a more organized damaging wind threat in the Golden Triangle area in northeastern MS.
Interior valleys will then warm toward the low 100s during late week. Tonight and into Wednesday morning the marine layer is expected to expand across the coastal waters due to a thermal trough moving along the coast.
630 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper-level high pressure remains in control of our weather today as it continues to nose closer to the forecast area. This will result in even warmer temperatures today under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures at 850 mb are forecasted to be slightly cooler than what we were expecting this time yesterday which should keep high temperatures between 105 and 109 on the Caprock and near 110 degrees east of the Caprock escarpment.
519 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge parked directly over New Mexico, maximizing thicknesses for the next couple of days over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Today through Wednesday, the ridge is forecast to develop east into the Gulf Coast states, and while a trough dives out of Canada into the Great Lakes region, flattening the ridge somewhat, this will have little effect on Wednesday's highs.
641 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (Today and tonight) Heat will continue to be the main story through the day today as the more pronounced mid-level ridge moves towards the east. Temperatures will eventually drop back into the upper 70s overnight, and dewpoints in the upper 50s will help to make it feel much cooler than previous nights.
A large ridge of high pressure is expected to remain over the southern United States through the short term period. Highs will continue to be in the 90s though areas that see rainfall will generally be a little cooler in the 80s.
645 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Today and Tonight: A strengthening upper-level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will build eastward today, with mid-level height rises over our forecast area contributing to less clouds aloft and warmer temperatures at the surface this afternoon. I didn't go quite as aggressive for warming today as some guidance, but temps should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. With the strengthening ridge building in from the west, this thunderstorm activity is more likely to remain north and east of our forecast area, but we will have to monitor trends for a more organized damaging wind threat in the Golden Triangle area in northeastern MS.
The Florida Keys are in the col-region between two large mean- layer anticyclones, one centered over the western North Atlantic and the other over the southwestern US. The 12Z FL RAOBs sampled rising heights at 925 and 850 mb, indicating the ridge is building west, which will limit the bifurcation of the tropical wave as it works today and tonight. A weak high pressure ridge will extend across southern Florida today and tonight, with light to gentle breezes prevailing.
402 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Expect dry and sunny conditions for the next few days, as an upper level ridge of high pressure starts to build over Montana.
443 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Current surface map places weak low across eastern Montana with trough extending into eastern Wyoming. If a thunderstorm does develop along the trough this afternoon/evening, sufficient bulk shear/buoyancy to support large hail. For the last half of the week into the weekend, upper high becomes established over the Four Corners region with ridging extending through the northern Rockies. This will favor warmer and drier conditions over the forecast area.
311 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Yesterday's trough has swept east overnight, with the remnants of the cold front generally along the WY/CO border. The trough also pushed the top of the ridge back to the south, with westerly flow returning across the state. The rest of the week, WY remains pressed between the ridge to the south and passing waves across Canada.
741 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (Today through Wednesday) High heat and summertime convection will be likely once again through the short term period as mid-level ridging builds over the Florida peninsula. The area of high pressure over the Atlantic will move northward on Wednesday as strong mid-level ridging builds from the south- central US. Temperatures and heat indices will remain elevated on Tuesday and Wednesday as high temperatures reach the low 90s and heat indices approach the 105-108 deg F range across South FL.
555 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (Today through Wednesday) High pressure anchored over the Four Corners will continue an eastern expansion across South Texas.
435 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Aviation Section Updated Expect dry and sunny conditions for the next few days, as an upper level ridge of high pressure starts to build over Montana.
400 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Yesterday's trough has swept east overnight, with the remnants of the cold front generally along the WY/CO border. The trough also pushed the top of the ridge back to the south, with westerly flow returning across the state. The rest of the week, WY remains pressed between the ridge to the south and passing waves across Canada.
629 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Currently have upper ridging over the Desert Southwest with upper trough stretching from the Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, cold front extends generally along I-70 across MO and KS. We look to remain in unseasonably strong west/northwest flow for Thu with upper ridging starting to expand into the southern High Plains. Upper ridging is then expected to strengthen its grip over the Desert Southwest along with the Southern/Central Rockies for the weekend. In addition, after unseasonably cooler temps for Fri, we will see a slow warm-up through the weekend into the start of the work week, with highs by Mon in the upper 90s area wide. A cold front will move south this afternoon, shifting winds to the north around 10 kt.
603 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (Today and tonight) High pressure will continue to build across the region driving temperatures even higher for today. Pretty much all of our models continue this high pressure across the region giving us high confidence in this forecast.
The expansive upper-level ridge out west will become even more amplified farther east into our entire region the next few days, prolonging this unrelenting heat and humidity.
By this evening and tonight some leading energy ahead of the fairly strong wave moving east along the Canadian border will bring a bit of moisture and forcing in the low to mid levels and could allow a few thunderstorms to develop. The exception may be from about Windom southwest to Ida Grove where the low level moisture will still be in place during peak heating, which could lead to isolated thunderstorm development. A lot will depend on model handling of the low level moisture as well as timing of the front. Wednesday night: Lingering showers and thunderstorm activity will gradually dissipate as the cold front pushes southeastwards overnight.