Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mild and dry as high pressure remains situated across the region. As the ridge axis slips south, higher moisture ahead of a frontal boundary starts to get pulled over Florida, with PWATs increasing to 1. 5", but the moisture increase will be mostly in the mid to upper levels, with the lower levels and surface remaining fairly dry, as indicated by low RH around 40 pct in model soundings. This light surface flow will delay the east coast sea breeze enough for temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s along the coast in the early afternoon, but then settle down to the low 80s once flow becomes onshore. High pressure in control otherwise with favorable boating conditions. VFR and dry conditions prevail through the TAF period, as high pressure remains in control.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Update at 3pm: Low pressure over central Montana will slide southeast along the nearly stationary front this afternoon with instability showers already intensifying into thunderstorms. Potential for heavy rain still on track for late in the week with the higher probabilities over southeast Montana.
The overhead trough will pass to the east through tonight, then the next trough will weaken as it digs into the area from the northwest Tuesday into Wedensday.
A cold front will approach from the north late Tuesday afternoon and move through the region during the evening. Slightly cooler temperatures behind the front with dry conditions through late week. Upper ridge across the Midwest and northwest flow continues across the Carolina and east central GA. Surface Pressure ridge to the south across FL. Upper trough to the north shifts to the Mid Atlantic and Carolina coast by evening. This will drive a weak cold front into the area from the north.
744 PM EDT Mon May 8 2023 Potential for scattered showers over inland southeast Georgia this afternoon and evening as high pressure ridging form out of the east recedes to the south allowing for more moist flow to push in over the area from out of the west. High temperatures for today will be in the upper 80s over inland areas and in the lower to mid 80s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 60s over inland areas and in the mid to upper 60s for areas closer to the shore.
817 PM EDT Mon May 8 2023 A low pressure system will move east through the Ohio Valley tonight, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure and a drier, somewhat cooler airmass will build into the region on Tuesday. A slightly cooler airmass will settle into the area with highs on Tuesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows Tuesday night in the mid to upper 40s.
A backed wind profile allowed for a decent cumulus cloud line to form earlier this afternoon in the vicinity of the Lower Keys, but the clouds lacked vertical depth due to very dry air above a weak inversion based at around 925 mb.
There is also an ongoing push of dry air in the low levels under north-northeast sfc winds associated with building high pressure to the north of Lake Superior. Due to the dry air advection in the low levels, cloud bases within the rain will remain above 5k feet through the night. Continued expansion of the high pressure to the north into Lower Mi overnight-Tues morning will result in clearing of the higher based clouds toward daybreak Tues. Steady northeast wind off Lake Huron will limit lakeshore communities of the Thumb to the lower 60s.
Storms were organized by an upper level low currently located in south-central Oregon. The low center will move through southeast Oregon tonight and into west- central Idaho by Tuesday morning. A vort max near the low center will trigger another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight into Tuesday morning, with the highest shower coverage across far southeastern Oregon into western Idaho, pushing into west-central Idaho Tuesday morning. Snow levels will drop to 5000-6000 ft MSL overnight as the cold core of the low moves overhead, with accumulating snow in the central Idaho mountains. McCall may even see a period of snow, but any accumulations in populated areas are expected to be minor with temperatures near freezing. Showers will taper off Tuesday as the low lifts to the north.
1029 PM EDT Mon May 8 2023 A cold front will arrive later tonight into Tuesday to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Dry high pressure will continue to dominate with comfortable humidity levels through Tuesday. A fairly zonal pattern with weak ridging is expected to amplify through the week, giving way to even stronger upper-level ridging across the area.
Much quieter and cooler day compared to yesterday, when a strong low pressure system brought along hot and humid air, which resulted in severe weather throughout the area. Temperatures are currently sitting in the mid 60s for some, with many reaching into the low 70s. Low pressure moves out and high pressure will move into the north. With a little more sun peaking out tomorrow, temperatures are expected to increase back into the low- mid 70s for most. Through midweek, we will be under the influence of weak upper ridging, with high pressure sliding through the north.
1035 PM EDT Mon May 8 2023 A low pressure system will move east through the Ohio Valley tonight, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure and a drier, somewhat cooler airmass will build into the region on Tuesday. A slightly cooler airmass will settle into the area with highs on Tuesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows Tuesday night in the mid to upper 40s.
For the marine forecast, with the high pres ridge slipping further away from the local area, southerly winds have increased a bit based on the CMAN and buoy readings. Potential for scattered showers over inland southeast Georgia this afternoon and evening as high pressure ridging form out of the east recedes to the south allowing for more moist flow to push in over the area from out of the west. High temperatures for today will be in the upper 80s over inland areas and in the lower to mid 80s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 60s over inland areas and in the mid to upper 60s for areas closer to the shore.
826 PM EDT Mon May 8 2023 A cold front will arrive later tonight into Tuesday to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
636 PM CDT Mon May 8 2023 TONIGHT: As of mid afternoon, an area of unstable cumulus and weak showers has developed in southeast SD and is tracking northeast, associated with a weak upper disturbance pivoting around the upper low to our north. As the day progresses, this dry air becomes less of a concern with 12z deterministic models favoring moistening via warm air advection and a warm front lifting widespread 50+ degree dew points in by the afternoon.
The lows overnight into early Tuesday morning will be in the upper 60s along the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and in the low 70s elsewhere. An active weather pattern will continue on Tuesday as a mid to upper level low/trough moves into Southeast TX and taps into another surge of low level moisture that is to move across the region from the Western Gulf of Mexico.
621 PM CDT Mon May 8 2023 Outflow from the overnight activity is a bit harder to pickout now on latest surface analysis, though the cold front is making some progress to the south. The latest visible satellite loop showing some agitated cu over southern Missouri, especially along the I-44 corridor, with the back edge of CU field along the I-70 corridor near the location of the cold front. Byrd Upper level ridge will remain over the region through mid week, while an upper level trough will move on shore and deepen over the western CONUS.
525 PM MDT Mon May 8 2023 Water vapor shows upper trof over the western CONUS with plenty of waves/upper lows embedded within the southwest flow aloft into the Northern Plains.
Models continue to show an upper level low moving across the four corners, inducing cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado.
The lows overnight into early Tuesday morning will be in the upper 60s along the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and in the low 70s elsewhere. An active weather pattern will continue on Tuesday as a mid to upper level low/trough moves into Southeast TX and taps into another surge of low level moisture that is to move across the region from the Western Gulf of Mexico. Tuesday's highs will be in the low to mid 80s areawide. The lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be a few degrees cooler.
A few light showers may accompany the higher terrain of Lincoln County on Wednesday as well.
145 AM EDT Tue May 9 2023 A weak wave of low pressure passes to the south on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in for Wednesday.
Another warm front will stall mid-week, enhancing rain conditions for another warm, wet weekend.
At first glance, this should be a dry forecast today with ridging overtaking the region. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge over the central U. with troughing on both coasts 00z Wed. This ridge builds into the upper Great Lakes 00z Thu while a trough moves into the Rockies. The trough then moves into the northern plains 00z Fri to 12z Fri. A couple backdoor cold fronts move through the area. at IWD, A low pressure trough over the western UP was the focus for isolated to scattered showers over western Gogebic and Ontonagon counties last evening. At CMX and SAW, Drier air under high pressure ahead of the western UP trough will result in dry conditions and should yield VFR conditions through the period at CMX and SAW.
Heights will rise under a building ridge on Tuesday. High temperatures could be tricky due to modifying clouds and/or showers/thunderstorms when the ridge alone would indicate highs in the 70s. Starting this period off on Wednesday morning, a strong upper trough is progged to be digging across the southwest CONUS with an upper ridge set up across the southeast CONUS and nation's mid-section.
This means some robust storms are definitely not out of the question this evening, but we are going to have to wait for the activity in Kentucky to sink into our area as the high res CAMS do not show any convection developing in our area ahead of the Kentucky storms arrive.
417 AM EDT Tue May 9 2023 Dry weather will continue through most of this week as high pressure settles over the region.
High pressure will build in from the east on Tuesday.
909 PM PDT Mon May 8 2023 Cooler weather is on the way for Tuesday and Wednesday, as another Pacific storm system approaches and moves across Southern California.
Cold front passes through this afternoon, with some isolated to scattered showers possible in southern sections. This afternoon, a surface cold front pushes southward into the area. The front will be south of our area by midnight, with drier and and high pressure building in from the north through tonight.
128 AM EDT Tue May 9 2023 A low pressure system will move east through the Ohio Valley tonight, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure and a drier, somewhat cooler airmass will build into the region on Tuesday. A slightly cooler airmass will settle into the area with highs on Tuesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows Tuesday night in the mid to upper 40s.
, the lower the chance of fog tonight; don't expect any east of Marquette and Menominee counties. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge over the central U. with troughing on both coasts 00z Wed. This ridge builds into the upper Great Lakes 00z Thu while a trough moves into the Rockies. The trough then moves into the northern plains 00z Fri to 12z Fri. A couple backdoor cold fronts move through the area. at IWD, A low pressure trough over the western UP was the focus for isolated to scattered showers over western Gogebic and Ontonagon counties last evening. At CMX and SAW, Drier air under high pressure ahead of the western UP trough will result in dry conditions and should yield VFR conditions through the period at CMX and SAW.
1153 PM CDT Mon May 8 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) An upper level ridge is over the gulf into the northern gulf coast this afternoon while the subtropical ridge remain parked over the northwest Atlantic. Over Texas, a pair of upper disturbances are in the flow on the northwest side of the upper ridge. The blocking pattern will remain in place through the short term with chances of rain each day as disturbances ride over the ridge that is parked just to the east.
Elsewhere, expect temperatures to settle in the low to mid 40s. On Tuesday expect skies to clear from the north as center of high pressure settles over the Great Lakes. A smidge cooler aloft, so highs most spots will stay in the lower to middle 60s. It will be cooler near Lake Ontario with gradient onshore northeast winds. Given clear skies, light winds and dry airmass, lows inland from the lakes will be in the lower to middle 30s.
An upper trough will move east over the West Coast, with a low in the southern portion of the trough moving to the California/Arizona border by 7 AM Wednesday.
Subsidence will continue to work in from the north as high pressures settles in and brings an end to the clouds and wet pattern, at least for a few days. Flow off Lake Michigan will keep areas along the shore several degrees cooler.
Discussion: Today weak upper level ridging will continue to build over the region.
As weak low pressure and a cold front exit the area this morning, high pressure will rapidly continue to build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This high will be the dominant feature across the area today and tonight, leading to dry, mild, and pleasant conditions. This, along with continued dry advection, should allow temperatures to drop below NBM numbers into the mid 40s to around 50, and would not be surprised to see some outlying areas even into the low 40s as the boundary layer effectively decouples overnight.
Drier northerly mid-level flow develops over the remainder of the night as high pressure begins expanding into southern lower MI. There is also ongoing advection of dry air in the low levels. Steady northeast wind off Lake Huron will limit lakeshore communities of the Thumb to the lower 60s. Strong height rises commence on Wednesday as a longwave upper ridge amplifies over the central CONUS. As the 850mb thermal trough moves out and near-surface wind direction loses the northeast component, expect abundant sunshine and temperatures in the mid 70s for most locations.
For the marine forecast, with the high pres ridge slipping further away from the local area, southerly winds have increased a bit based on the CMAN and buoy readings.
158 AM EDT Tue May 9 2023 High pressure will move into the area today, bringing drier and eventually clearer conditions.
Will continue with the highest pops east of Highway 283 to account for this possible convective evolution. Additional storm activity is expected to develop across the higher terrain of Colorado and eventually move east across western Kansas during the afternoon and evening hours.
1243 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023 Outflow from the overnight activity is a bit harder to pickout now on latest surface analysis, though the cold front is making some progress to the south. The latest visible satellite loop showing some agitated cu over southern Missouri, especially along the I-44 corridor, with the back edge of CU field along the I-70 corridor near the location of the cold front. Byrd Upper level ridge will remain over the region through mid week, while an upper level trough will move on shore and deepen over the western CONUS. The trough will begin to lift out towards the region on Wednesday.
Also expecting increasing high clouds during the afternoon dirtying up the ridge which may increase convective inhibition above the stationary front.
Broad upper level ridging will hold over the Florida Peninsula today and tonight, while at the surface, the subtropical ridge axis extends from the Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula.
But daytime heating with highs once again rising into the low/mid 80s will destabilize the environment, and lead to more shower/thunderstorm chances this afternoon.
A cold front will approach from the north late Tuesday afternoon and move through the region during the evening. Slightly cooler temperatures behind the front with dry conditions through late week. Upper ridge across the Midwest and northwest flow continues across the Carolina and east central GA. Surface Pressure ridge to the south across FL. Upper trough to the north shifts to the Mid Atlantic and Carolina coast by evening. This will drive a weak cold front into the area from the north. So dry and cooler than normal temps expected. An upper ridge axis centered over the Mid Mississippi Valley is forecast to slide eastward for the end of the week into the weekend.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday/ The main weather feature to affect North and Central Texas in the short-term is a weak upper low, which is forecast to lift from South Texas northward through the region, eventually reaching Oklahoma on Wednesday. Wednesday's temperatures will most likely not be as warm as Tuesday's due to an increase in low level moisture, and thicker clouds as the low center moves through.
Combination of favorable jet support for subsidence and differential anticyclonic vorticity advection will allow for background forcing for a surface anticyclone regionally. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 60s inland with cooler readings near the Lakes.
Coincident with that, we'll see H5 heights increase about 30 DM today, as its ridge axis extends from its Lower Mississippi Valley centering. Both ridge axes shift a little to the east Wednesday night. A dome of high pressure aloft builds and strengthens over the Southeast U.
High pressure builds into the area later today, with dry weather and seasonable temperatures returning through the end of the week. High pressure will dominate tonight and skies should remain mostly clear. Quiet weather on Wednesday will continue as high pressure continues to track through the region. A strong ridge of high pressure centered over the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys will slowly slide eastward through the period.
High pressure builds back into the area later Tuesday, with dry weather and seasonable temperatures returning through the end of the week. Forecast sounding show an abundant amount of dry air in the low levels, so will not be surprised to only see sprinkles or VIRGA instead of any measurable rainfall. Lows tomorrow night will be in the low to mid 30s in most areas and frost headlines will be possible where the growing season is currently active. Quiet weather is expected as a high pressure system builds in Wednesday.
(Today through Wednesday) The expected MCS is materialized this afternoon, but was much slower than models had expected as the ridge to our south slowed it down. For Wednesday, we see the ridge build back into the region from the northeast as drier air filters in.
Heights continue to increase tonight into Wednesday as a ridge builds over the Upper Midwest.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue late tonight and Wednesday morning in the north as this trough lifts north into Saskatchewan.
1219 AM EDT Tue May 9 2023 High pressure will build across the region through mid-week.
High pressure builds back into the area later Tuesday, with dry weather and seasonable temperatures returning through the end of the week. Forecast sounding show an abundant amount of dry air in the low levels, so will not be surprised to only see sprinkles or VIRGA instead of any measurable rainfall. Lows tomorrow night will be in the low to mid 30s in most areas and frost headlines will be possible where the growing season is currently active. A strong ridge of high pressure centered over the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys will slowly slide eastward through the period.
(Today through Wednesday) Latest model solutions depict broad high pressure sprawling across the Western Atlantic gradually weakening during the next couple of days, but remaining mainly stationary. Pressure gradients will then decrease as the ridge weakens, with sfc winds decreasing to below 10 mph in general. The combination of persisting subsidence and lighter winds will allow for afternoon temperatures to climb into the low-mid 90s by this afternoon, warmest over the west coast. High temperatures will be a degree or two warmer on Wednesday.
High pressure is building from Hudson Bay to the western Great Lakes. This high will reorient overhead this afternoon/evening, before drifting toward the southern lakes. The low- and mid- levels are already dry or drying, though some cirrus lingers over northern lower MI. Max temps inland today near 70f to the lower 70s, while in the 60s and even 50s along immediate coastlines. Most of the precipitation looks to be overblown, with the amount of dry air in the lower levels, but some rain will be possible.
Overall we will then see quieter conditions for Tuesday as a trough pushing into the Northeast will help to slowly build in a more stable and comfortable air mass. Upper level ridge then builds in for Wednesday and will bring a very pleasant day with highs in the 80s and dew points in the 50s.
1026 PM MDT Mon May 8 2023 Water vapor shows upper trof over the western CONUS with plenty of waves/upper lows embedded within the southwest flow aloft into the Northern Plains. Wednesday has some potential to be more active as upper low shifts into the Four Corners. However, upper ridging to the east/northeast of the low will amplify and extend from the mid MS valley northwestward through the Northern Plains. As upper low shifts northeast into the Central Rockies Wednesday night and ridge axis shift to our northeast, showers/storms should become more widespread across our area.
Temperatures were in the 50s area wide and slightly cooler under the stratus deck where dewpoints were dropping due to the flow off the lake. High pressure is expected today across the area leading to a mild mid May day. It could hold on a little longer across the eastern CWA as flow off the lake keeps the area a little cooler and closer to the Td before insolation occurs and warms up temps. As such, went with slightly cooler temps across the eastern CWA. In fact, this precip is being advecting in under the ridge axis.
1107 PM EDT Mon May 8 2023 A weak area of low pressure will track south of Pennsylvania tonight, then high pressure will build southeast from the Great Lakes the second half of this week.
256 AM EDT Tue May 9 2023 A cold front will exit southern Kentucky early this morning, pushing any lingering showers and storms out of the state. Tonight high pressure will build southward from the Great Lakes and supply us with mostly clear skies and a light northeast breeze. Temperatures will tumble into the lower 50s and upper 40s. Wednesday and Wednesday night high pressure over the Great Lakes will slide southeastward to the East Coast, keeping our weather dry. This weekend a cold front will approach from the west, further supporting the idea of scattered shower/storm chances.
353 AM EDT Tue May 9 2023 (Today through Wednesday) This morning rain showers and thunderstorms continue to move southeastward toward the FA through TN along a surface boundary ahead of a cold front. After the morning convection across our northern counties our next chance for convection will be after 18Z as a weak H500 disturbance and the aforementioned cold front works its way through the CWA.
129 AM EDT Tue May 9 2023 A weak area of low pressure will track south of Pennsylvania tonight, then high pressure will build southeast from the Great Lakes the second half of this week.
In the low levels, a west-east oriented surface boundary over southern KS as of 2 AM will lift north through KS today in response to a deepening lee cyclone over eastern CO. By late morning into this afternoon, a destabilizing air mass along and to the south of the warm front lifting north through KS will promote the intensification of thunderstorms immediately north of the boundary across portions of south-central NE and north-central KS.