Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Rainfall to diminish Sunday morning as a cold front slowly clears the region. Water vapor depicts a well defined wave/closed low over western South Dakota which will lead to increasing upper diffluence into this evening. Thus the potential for flooding exists as the line is initially parallel to the moisture axis then evolves to cross boundary flow as the front is slowed by a wave along the above mentioned cold front. Have extended the Flood Watch a bit eastward tonight where confidence is the highest in training storms. The forecast period will end with an upper ridge building northward into the Central Plains that will result in rising heights and warming temperatures.
This Afternoon through Next Saturday Closed low over western South Dakota is trudging east Saturday afternoon with northerly flow aloft still filtering moisture into north-central Wyoming. The clouds gradually dissipate through mid-evening and leave a mostly clear sky overnight as ridging pushes east into the state. The ridge axis transits the state during the day and some mid-level cloud cover arrives in the afternoon.
A weak low amplitude disturbance will pass to our south later tonight, otherwise ridging will build and gradient aloft will slacken. Max temps tomorrow will be about 1 to 3 degrees cooler than todays highs.
(This evening through Sunday) With the upper-level ridge over West Central Texas influencing our overall weather patter to remain drier and warmer through much of the weekend, overnight lows tonight are only expected to fall into the mid to upper 70s.
There is a strong low level jet/warm advection on the east side of the low, along with a nice upper jet, and good moisture transport. Moving into Sunday, the stacked low remains over the FA, so there could be periods of showers/storms rotating around the low throughout the day. Persistent upper ridging over the southern Hudson Bay area will stall the upper low over northern Minnesota with it eventually getting trapped under the ridge with ridging building out of the rockies ahead of the next large scale pacific trough. With the stalling upper low rain lingers into the early part of the week before it gets ejected around the base of the ridge through the great lakes.
1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 (Today through Sunday) Mid-level ridging parked over northern Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across Deep South Texas through the weekend. Low temperatures are expected to be in the 70s with a few places in the lower 80s for tonight.
The latest RAP40 500mb analysis and mid level water vapor imagery is showing a broad upper trough/low over the northern Plains, giving way to almost zonal flow aloft over the CWA. This will be ahead of an amplifying upper ridge that will impact the region's wx for the remainder of the short term period.
An upper level trough moving over central WY this morning and its associated cold front triggered a couple of strong storms over Weld and Sedgwick counties earlier this morning, but that has shifted to the east of the forecast area. For today, moderate downward QG descent will be over the region, but the subsidence will weaken as the trough lifts to the northeast. A little cooler today as well with temperatures near normal for this time of year. This week will be dominated by ridging over the area with warm air aloft and dry air throughout.
(Tonight through Sunday night) The mid-level ridge is locked in place over northern Mexico, which means more above seasonal temperatures and rain-free conditions for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. While a few impulses will move around the ridge none of them will have impacts on the CWA. High temperatures for Sunday are expected to be in the 100s for most of the region while the highs will be in the upper 90s for locations along the coast and in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. The subsidence from the mid-level ridge should allow for drier air to mix down and keep the humidity down. Low temperatures for tonight and Sunday night are expected to be mostly in the 70s, but a few places could get into the lower 80s.
Midday surface observations showed the cold front clearing the southeast zones. Morning mesoanalysis showed substantial moisture and instability across south central Kansas, with a dewpoint of 70 at Medicine Lodge, but strong dry advection will prevail this afternoon with diminishing north winds behind the cold front. Cirrus resulting from the strong jet stream aloft are expected to thin out through this afternoon, allowing for near normal temperatures in the lower 80s. The blanket of clouds will slow the temperature fall during the early morning hours, such that sunrise temperatures will not be far from normal in the lower to mid 50s.
316 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 High pressure remains largely in control over northern New England through much of this upcoming week.
1246 PM MST Sat Sep 23 2023 Cloud cover is expected to clear out this afternoon, allowing high temperatures to reach the mid to upper 90s across the lower deserts.
1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Mostly sunny, warm, and dry today, with high temperatures in the low 80s.
Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s in northern portions of our region and mid to high 60s in the southern half.
(Tonight through Sunday night) The upper ridge will remain in place over the region during the period, while an upper disturbance moves across the Southern Plains Sunday/Sunday night.
1130 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Aviation Section Updated Satellite imagery this morning shows the upper low that brought widespread rain to the region now centered near the Black Hills with with the back edge of clouds and extensive low level moisture circulating around the low beginning to shift east across SW MT and into western portions of north-central/central MT. Hoenisch The recent wet weather will come to an end today as weak high pressure builds across the Greater Yellowstone region. As we start the new week, we will find ourselves sort of in between a weak upper level ridge to our east and a strong upper level low sitting over the eastern Pacific Ocean, which will result in deep southwesterly flow across the area.
As this happens, a cold front is expected to drift gradually eastward across western Missouri while weakening. Sunday and Sunday night: The aformentioned frontal boundary will continue to drift eastward; however, the frontal boundary and advections will become less defined as the low pressure system occludes well to the north of the area.
218 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2023 20Z upper level analysis has deep upper low over western South Dakota, slowly shifting to the east. At the surface, low pressure is located across eastern Nebraska, with inverted trof extending back into the western Dakotas. Deep upper low will continue to shift slowly east through the overnight hours, with western ridge gradually sliding into western portions of the area by morning. Upper low shifts into far northeastern South Dakota by Sunday, with some lingering light showers possible across central South Dakota. Ridging to the west will make further inroads across the remainder of the forecast area, with dry and mild conditions expected.
High pressure should remain entrenched over the area overnight.
The more probable scenario is additional storms initiate ahead of the cold front across far NE OK and southern KS by late afternoon and quickly become severe as the full instability / shear profile can be realized.
Bands of precipitation will bring rain chances to western PA and northern WV this afternoon and tonight before Ophelia departs far enough east to suppress most precipitation east of the ridges. Original thinking was precipitation would struggle to measure outside of the terrain due to the potential for downsloping and dry air in the low-mid levels until later. Continued ascent, and deep layer moisture on the northern/western side of the low, will maintain rain chances through Sunday, with the highest POPS east of Pittsburgh.
1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions are in store once again today as the CWA remains beneath the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge that is currently centered over north-central Mexico.
Temperatures and humidity will be moderated by Tropical Storm Ophelia which will continue to work it's way up the Atlantic coast funneling cooler and drier air in behind it. Relative Humidity values this afternoon and tomorrow will be on the low side of climatological averages with minimum RH values falling into the mid to low 30s; with corresponding dewpoints in the mid 50s.
1235 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 (Rest of Today) A large area of high pressure centered over eastern Canada extends SSW into the western portions of the Tennessee Valley. As Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to move north across the North Carolina and Virgina coast, the upper level ridging should amplify over much of northern Alabama.
1016 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Mostly sunny, warm, and dry today, with high temperatures in the low 80s.
340 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 (Issued 339 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023) Tonight through Sunday night: A slow moving low pressure system well to the west will gradually move towards the area through early this week.
130 PM PDT Sat Sep 23 2023 An area of low pressure along the west coast will keep our temperatures slightly below normal through the upcoming week. Central California remains in southwest to west flow aloft between a Northeast Pacific low pressure system and high pressure centered near northern Mexico.
(Through Tonight) Weak high pressure will remain over area through Tonight with dry airmass in place. Another cooler than normal night is expected, with lows in the lower 60s inland, 65 to 70 coast.
Should see temps nudge just a few more degrees for highs in the low 70s north to low 60s south with winds mainly light except a little brisker around 10 mph across northern New York. highs will be in the mid-60s in southern zones where clouds persist to the lower 70s in the wider valleys, especially north.
(This evening through Sunday) An upper level low over the Dakotas will move slowly to the east during the next 24 hours helping push a cold front southward down the southern High Plains. The front may lose some momentum this evening with the slow movement of the upper low, but north winds are expected across all of the forecast area by late morning Sunday.
Tonight - Sunday The pesky low that brought us a prolonged period of clouds, rain and cooler temperatures has moved well to our east allowing for high pressure to regain control of our weather once again.
12Z analysis shows the main 850mb trough already positioned over Central Kansas which is about seven to ten hours faster than initially thought.
Lows tonight and Sunday night will be similar to last night in the 40s to low 50s, and highs Sunday will be similar to today in the low 70s north to mid 60s south.
Amplified upper-level ridging across Ontario/Hudson Bay will aid in expansive high pressure centered to our northeast, with the southern reaches of these higher pressures sagging into the Great Lakes. Low temps a touch cooler than the last several. By Sunday morning this will be marked by a large, slow- moving upper low over the upper Mississippi Valley and a secondary strong impulse further back over the northeast Pacific. Anomalous high pressure centered over the southern end of James Bay extended down into the northern and eastern Lakes region. At the surface, the surface reflection of the northern CONUS upper low was occluding out, with deeper moisture cut off by southern stream features across the southern plains and Arklatex regions.
149 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Upper level Low centered over northwest South Dakota continues to trek eastward tonight.
Low temps look to drop to below freezing for the Craig, Meeker, and Steamboat Springs areas as they did this morning. Remaining valley locales should stay above freezing. A ridge axis sets up overhead Sunday bringing plenty of sunny skies to the region and light surface winds.
308 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 A sprawling high pressure system will remain entrenched across southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS. Tropical Storm Ophelia will continue to weaken along the mid Atlantic coast with the remnants eventually shearing east along the southern periphery of this high with no impact on southern MI weather. Another low pressure system will lift from the central plains into the upper midwest late this weekend where it will stall and weaken as it encounters the subsidence and dry air associated with the high pressure system. A weak backdoor cold front will settle into the region late Sunday as this high strengthens to our northeast.
A large area of low pressure will drop from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin toward the end of the week leading to increasing winds and another cooling trend.
1038 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 High pressure remains largely in control over northern New England through much of this upcoming week.
616 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 (This evening through Sunday) With the upper-level ridge over West Central Texas influencing our overall weather patter to remain drier and warmer through much of the weekend, overnight lows tonight are only expected to fall into the mid to upper 70s.
716 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 (Rest of today through Sunday) Overview: Longwave troughing remains in place over the SE CONUS with Tropical Storm Ophelia currently located over North Carolina and another impulse pivoting south into the GOM. At the lower- lvls a NE-SW oriented boundary was noted in satellite WV imagery and satellite PWATs, with PWATs currently ranging from 1. As although temperatures aloft are relatively cool, cooler temperatures lower in the atmosphere will keep lapse rates modest, likely limiting the strong storm threat. High temperatures should remain in the 80s, as the airmass remains on the cooler side.
At this time thunderstorms were isolated to scattered, although the outflow could have enough momentum to bring some winds, looking for activity to diminish as things move into the slightly drier and cooler air. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s in northern portions of our region and mid to high 60s in the southern half.
707 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 (Through Tonight) Weak high pressure will remain over area through Tonight with dry airmass in place. Another cooler than normal night is expected, with lows in the lower 60s inland, 65 to 70 coast.
752 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 High pressure remains largely in control over northern New England through much of this upcoming week.
624 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level low over the Dakotas will move slowly to the east during the next 24 hours helping push a cold front southward down the southern High Plains. The front may lose some momentum this evening with the slow movement of the upper low, but north winds are expected across all of the forecast area by late morning Sunday.
937 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 A weak cold front will dissipate across central portions of the region overnight.
The high temperatures will be much different from today's values, with near normal numbers ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. As the remnants of Ophelia move offshore the mid-Atlantic states, strong high pressure will build south from Quebec along the Atlantic coastline.
The upper low over SD will move to far wrn MN for Sun AM before becoming nearly stationary. Gehring (Issued 339 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023) Tonight through Sunday night: A slow moving low pressure system well to the west will gradually move towards the area through early this week.
However, given the low and mid-level WAA setup keeping it difficult for much mixing to occur, this does not appear likely but isolated higher gusts are possible. This will allow for a narrow feed of weak instability in the vicinity of the Mississippi River with MLCAPE values in the ballpark of a few hundred J/kg, with the higher PWATs being slightly lower but still about 150% of normal. Still could expect some efficient rain in spite of the low instability with the 23.
859 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Forecast is on track this evening with northerly flow across our region around the western periphery of the tropical cyclone across eastern NC and VA. Otherwise, we expect to remain dry and mostly clear across our area tonight with subsidence aloft noted in the low and mid-level WV satellite imagery. Tennessee is located between two low pressure systems - one in southeast Texas and one off the North Carolina coast. Daytime highs will be a tad warmer than today, generally in the 70s and 80s.
803 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2023 With lots of moisture in the lower atmosphere and light winds for parts of our eastern counties, models are hinting at some fog possible in the eastern counties. Torgerson Upper low continues to move eastward thru SD and we are now seeing building heights and drying/clearing in our west. It should noted that as we see clearing on satellite imagery the high peaks of the Beartooths stand out as snow-covered. Otherwise, aforementioned building ridge will bring dry and warmer conditions through the remainder of the short-term period.
Updated Aviation Cloud cover is expected to clear out this afternoon, allowing high temperatures to reach the mid to upper 90s across the lower deserts.
With very dry low level easterly flow just to the east, these showers should not continue to progress much farther into central IL until after sunrise Sunday morning when flow aloft shifts flow more from the southwest to displace tonight's dry air and lift a warm front into the area. Lows tonight range from the low 60s west of a Decatur-to-Bloomington line and in the mid to upper 50s east of that line.
610 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 A weak cold front will dissipate across central portions of the region overnight.
651 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 With Se Mi located between Ophelia on the east coast and the upper low over the northern plains, mid level subsidence will hold tonight through Sunday. A sprawling high pressure system will remain entrenched across southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS. Tropical Storm Ophelia will continue to weaken along the mid Atlantic coast with the remnants eventually shearing east along the southern periphery of this high with no impact on southern MI weather. Another low pressure system will lift from the central plains into the upper midwest late this weekend where it will stall and weaken as it encounters the subsidence and dry air associated with the high pressure system. A weak backdoor cold front will settle into the region late Sunday as this high strengthens to our northeast.
Looking at water vapor satellite imagery an elongated upper level trough remains situated along the Eastern Seaborad and extending well equatorward into the western Caribbean. Embedded within this trough are three cyclonic features, one being Ophelia, another located in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, and the third one just south of Cuba. Meanwhile, a weak and disorganized trough axis will develop near and west of the Florida Keys.
647 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) The upper ridge will remain in place over the region during the period, while an upper disturbance moves across the Southern Plains Sunday/Sunday night.
753 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2023 With lots of moisture in the lower atmosphere and light winds for parts of our eastern counties, models are hinting at some fog possible. Torgerson Upper low continues to move eastward thru SD and we are now seeing building heights and drying/clearing in our west. It should noted that as we see clearing on satellite imagery the high peaks of the Beartooths stand out as snow-covered. Otherwise, aforementioned building ridge will bring dry and warmer conditions through the remainder of the short-term period.
810 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 (Rest of today through Sunday) Overview: Longwave troughing remains in place over the SE CONUS with Tropical Storm Ophelia currently located over North Carolina and another impulse pivoting south into the GOM. At the lower- lvls a NE-SW oriented boundary was noted in satellite WV imagery and satellite PWATs, with PWATs currently ranging from 1. As although temperatures aloft are relatively cool, cooler temperatures lower in the atmosphere will keep lapse rates modest, likely limiting the strong storm threat. High temperatures should remain in the 80s, as the airmass remains on the cooler side.
The best chance for periods of heavy rain will occur from the pre-dawn hours into Sunday over the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Rainfall totals of >2" are still expected across the Lower Susq Valley.
615 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) The mid-level ridge is locked in place over northern Mexico, which means more above seasonal temperatures and rain-free conditions for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. While a few impulses will move around the ridge none of them will have impacts on the CWA. High temperatures for Sunday are expected to be in the 100s for most of the region while the highs will be in the upper 90s for locations along the coast and in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. The subsidence from the mid-level ridge should allow for drier air to mix down and keep the humidity down. Low temperatures for tonight and Sunday night are expected to be mostly in the 70s, but a few places could get into the lower 80s.
Lows tonight range from the low 60s west of a Decatur-to-Bloomington line and in the mid to upper 50s east of that line.
522 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2023 20Z upper level analysis has deep upper low over western South Dakota, slowly shifting to the east. At the surface, low pressure is located across eastern Nebraska, with inverted trof extending back into the western Dakotas. Deep upper low will continue to shift slowly east through the overnight hours, with western ridge gradually sliding into western portions of the area by morning. Upper low shifts into far northeastern South Dakota by Sunday, with some lingering light showers possible across central South Dakota. Ridging to the west will make further inroads across the remainder of the forecast area, with dry and mild conditions expected.
1214 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level low over the Dakotas will move slowly to the east during the next 24 hours helping push a cold front southward down the southern High Plains. The front may lose some momentum this evening with the slow movement of the upper low, but north winds are expected across all of the forecast area by late morning Sunday.
The high temperatures will be much different from today's values, with near normal numbers ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. At the surface, a backdoor cold front slides south Tue morning as a 1032 mb high settles down into SE Canada. Guidance diverges somewhat on Fri as the ECMWF/CMC bring the remnants of Ophelia southward and bring an inverted trough across eastern NC. Highs will slowly moderate but remain cool in the low to upper 70s Thu-Sat. Outlook: High pressure and associated NE low-level flow will bring periods of sub-VFR ceilings Tue-Thu.
The remnants of the now Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia should continue to provide increased cloud coverage over northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia through at least the first half of Sunday.
1226 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) The mid-level ridge is locked in place over northern Mexico, which means more above seasonal temperatures and rain-free conditions for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. While a few impulses will move around the ridge none of them will have impacts on the CWA. High temperatures for Sunday are expected to be in the 100s for most of the region while the highs will be in the upper 90s for locations along the coast and in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. The subsidence from the mid-level ridge should allow for drier air to mix down and keep the humidity down. Low temperatures for tonight and Sunday night are expected to be mostly in the 70s, but a few places could get into the lower 80s.
158 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Quiet weather will continue through the weekend with scattered to overcast highs clouds associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia as it moves northward into the Mid Atlantic.