Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
345 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2023 Weak low pressure will quickly pass east across the Ohio Valley this morning. For this afternoon into tonight, a high pressure ridge will build into the Ohio Valley.
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1127 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 Cooler than average high temperatures are forecast through the end of the week, with periods of showers and chances for isolated thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon.
NBM guidance was showing low temperatures a few to several degrees warmer than what was seen this morning with the coldest temperatures across the northern valleys and Uinta Basin and more seasonal lows south. Of course, those areas with more clouds will see warmer temps and those with minimal cloud cover should see cooler temps. This closed low will start turning eastward as the jet rounds the base of said low and forces it across the Great Basin. This movement will cause a low amplitude, weak transitory ridge to setup across the region. Get out there and enjoy as much of the sun and warmer temperatures as you can because we're looking at another unsettled week of snow, clouds, and below normal temperatures.
Additional precipitation is possible south and east of Pittsburgh during the morning and early afternoon hours as weak low pressure moves through the Mid-Atlantic region. Will keep PoPs overnight in the low chc to schc category with the higher of the two north of Pittsburgh. The precipitation should begin as snow, but will change to rain west of the ridges under increased warm air advection. Hi-Res models continue to show the risk for mixed precipitation for the eastern ridges of West Virginia as the boundary layer saturates and cools aloft. Current soundings are pointing to a snow/sleet mix, but a brief period of freezing rain cannot be ruled out.
Huston An upper low off the northern California coast continues to spin shifting south towards SoCal over the next day or so. As this does, we'll see very weak ridging over eastern Idaho later tonight and into the day on Saturday. Temps by the afternoon will likely climb into the low to mid 40s across the lower Snake Plain and into the Magic Valley but the Upper Snake and Arco Desert will remain on the cooler side of normal.
354 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2023 Precipitation is possible mainly south and east of Pittsburgh during the morning and early afternoon hours as weak low pressure moves through the Mid-Atlantic region. The precipitation should begin as snow, but will change to rain west of the ridges under increased warm air advection. Hi-Res models continue to show the risk for mixed precipitation for the eastern ridges of West Virginia as the boundary layer saturates and cools aloft. Current soundings are pointing to a snow/sleet mix, but a brief period of freezing rain cannot be ruled out.
Near the surface, high pressure is shifting east through the Upper Midwest. Tranquil conditions continue throughout the period as weak ridging aloft across the Colorado Rockies begins to edge eastward through the Western High Plains later today while a much drier air in the lower/mid levels dominates the region. Although prevailing southerlies will remain relatively light, warmer air is still expected to lift northward into western Kansas today, pushing H85 temperatures well above 0C from central Kansas to near 10C in extreme southwest Kansas.
122 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2023 Flow backs today as a deep upper low drops into southern California. Winds have not hit Advisory criteria yet as cold high pressure hanging on over southwest Montana, and this has yet to transform over Yellowstone Park. Blowing snow will end by late morning as temperatures warm into the lower 30s.
1058 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Stepping outside today you'd never believe we're just 24 hours removed from the warmest February day in Nashville's history, but yesterday's fropa has brought significantly cooler temperatures to Middle Tennessee.
Discussion: The strong ridge over the Gulf is still our dominant player, with our area underneath a stationary trough.
1202 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2023 Zonal flow with a flat short wave ridge over CO tonight. There is still some light snow shower activity mainly along the higher west facing slopes, otherwise dry. Most of the foothills and Palmer Divide have crawled their way into the 30s, with a few sites lucky enough to see the low 40s. Meanwhile, snow showers are still continuing across the high country this afternoon, though this has diminished over the past couple hours. While temperatures should definitely be warmer than today. Across the high country, breezy conditions will continue Saturday, though it shouldn't be as windy as today.
Temperatures were generally in the lower 40s across southern Indiana and in Kentucky north of the Parkways. Across southern IN and northern KY, drier air in the lower levels look to be in place which will limit precipitation. With temperatures dropping into the lower-mid 30s over southern IN and far northern KY, a little bit of a wintry mix of rain/sleet can't be ruled out. Low temps across southern KY will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. For Saturday, we'll be on the periphery of the upper level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico.
1052 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 (The rest of tonight) The biggest forecast challenge for the rest of the night is the coverage of drizzle/freezing drizzle to the north of the expected more potent showers later tonight across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. However, dew point depressions remain high across a good portion of northeast Oklahoma and into far northwest Arkansas, and model low level relative humidity fields indicate little in the way of further moistening in the lowest levels. Add to that a weakening in the warm advection across this same area, and it is likely that the drizzle/freezing drizzle threat will end from northwest to southeast through the rest of the evening and into early tomorrow morning.
For tomorrow, expect another mostly quiet day with warmer temperatures in the teens above zero thanks to some solid warm air advection overnight tonight and weak downsloping tomorrow.
1054 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) A weak spoke of energy rounding the subtropical ridge and abundant low level moisture has helped maintain some cloud cover across the lower Texas coast, limiting high temperatures across eastern Cameron County. The frontal boundary across the CRP CWA has yet to sneak into the northern ranchlands, but may dip south tonight into early Saturday before nudging north through the weekend as a warm front. Went with a mix of NAM and cooler blends up north with NBM and slightly warmer blends for the RGV through the short term. Patchy fog is being observed along the lower Texas coast, and with cooler water temps and persistent moist southerly winds, this may not budge much over the weekend.
A low pressure center aloft is sitting off the West Coast as well. The low-level inversion and recent snowfall will likely keep high temperatures between 15 to 25 north of the Milk River and Missouri River downstream of Fort Peck Lake.
Warmer today with highs at or slightly above normal. As the deep upper low moves into srn CA, the band of precipitation will move into wrn Pima county around midnight and gradually push east during the early morning hours, moving thru Tucson after sunrise and then across the remainder of the area before lunch. As the cold front pushes east the snow levels will briefing lower down around 2500 to 3000 feet. Little accumulation is expected across the valleys when the snow levels drop with the cold front. Gusty winds continue out ahead of cold front on Sunday. Normal diurnal temperature trends won't work tomorrow so went ahead and used the 25/06z HRRR temperature trend that handled the cold front timing fairly well.
343 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2023 A stalling cold front draped across south Mississippi will begin to lift north as a warm front, increasing cloud cover and rain chances this morning. Highs today will range from the mid 50s across the northwest to the low 80s across the south. Quiet conditions will continue through tonight as a mid-level ridge becomes amplified across the Lower Miss Valley suppressing moisture return. Expect lows to range from the low 50s to the low 60s.
402 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2023 Warmer air is slowly moving into Central MT this morning.
Air mass will be tough to budge today, but warm front will make it as far north as the Hill Country this afternoon. Warm front continues north overnight and temperatures may actually climb a few degrees by morning.
Satellite trends and RAP soundings suggest precipitation type should remain rain or freezing rain (depending on 2-m temperature). Low-level advection remains generally neutral and observations show some sites generally north of I-70 at or slightly below freezing. A light glaze could occur on areas that fall to freezing or just below, and we will have to watch for minor travel impacts, but this potential is low given the marginality of both modeled road surface temperatures and observed ambient temperatures. Later today, partial clearing is expected and as ridging amplifies to our west a warm-up will commence. A tighter than typical gradient will remain over the area and maximum temperatures will range from the low-mid 40s north to the low 50s south, falling to a few degrees either side of freezing tonight for minimums.
Tranquil wx is fcst for late morning through Sunday afternoon as ridging builds in.
Milder air will warm much of the terrain along with the lower elevations of north-central Idaho compared to yesterday. Snow returns to the passes along the Idaho/Montana border on Sunday morning as a quick moving trough approaches. Precipitation then spreads eastward through the day, turning showery in the afternoon and evening behind a cold front.
After morning LES showers east, ridging building back in from the west will provide a period of drier wx Sunday into Sunday night with some WAA ensuing late in the day Sunday.
Warmer temperatures are expected to continue into Sunday, with highs in the 20s to lower 30s under partly cloudy skies.
Southeast component for the Coteau Sunday could also result in some minor blowing/drifting, and while mixing won't be as effective, it will be much warmer aloft with 850mb temperatures a standard deviation above climo.
334 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2023 Temperatures will further moderate today as warmer air aloft continues to advect in. A mixing wind will aid in bringing this air to the surface, with highs for the windier locations near or even well above freezing for the first time in a few days. On Sunday a low pressure system will approach from the Great Basin, coinciding with the arrival of a broader trough from the northwest. Models still show the low remaining a bit too far south to have much impact on Wyoming. The trough will instead be the main snow instigator on Sunday as a relatively moist westerly flow sets up.
With the precipitation and mostly cloudy skies expected, undercut NBM high temperatures by several degrees, closer the cooler MET guidance.
During the course of the period, this front is expected to retreat north as a warm front, leaving a persistent onshore flow in place across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. With the area of the western periphery of 500 mb high pressure centered over the Florida Straits, little to no rainfall is forecast, although some isolated showers may occur today and tonight over the lower Texas coastal waters.
852 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2023 Weak low pressure will quickly pass east across the Ohio Valley this morning. For this afternoon into tonight, a high pressure ridge will build into the Ohio Valley. The high will then move east on Sunday.
446 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2023 Temperatures will further moderate today as warmer air aloft continues to advect in. A mixing wind will aid in bringing this air to the surface, with highs for the windier locations near or even well above freezing for the first time in a few days. On Sunday a low pressure system will approach from the Great Basin, coinciding with the arrival of a broader trough from the northwest. Models still show the low remaining a bit too far south to have much impact on Wyoming. The trough will instead be the main snow instigator on Sunday as a relatively moist westerly flow sets up.
539 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2023 A stalling cold front draped across south Mississippi will begin to lift north as a warm front, increasing cloud cover and rain chances this morning. Highs today will range from the mid 50s across the northwest to the low 80s across the south. Quiet conditions will continue through tonight as a mid-level ridge becomes amplified across the Lower Miss Valley suppressing moisture return. Expect lows to range from the low 50s to the low 60s.
630 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2023 (Today through Sunday) The persistent dry and warmer weather will continue this weekend, as high pressure over the Florida Peninsula will move slowly southward towards the Florida Straits. The threat of development will continue over the interior and west coast metro areas for Saturday night and again Sunday night as the low level moisture will remain in place.
Warm, dry conditions will likely prevail through Sunday night as ridge builds over the Midwest.
By tonight, the nearly stationary upper low now west of KLAX will begin moving inland, in response to new energy coming out of the Gulf of Alaska. This low will feature a well-defined baroclinic band that will transition the state late Saturday evening and through Sunday afternoon. Moisture profiles are deep with this low and we have not seen the higher dewpoints to our south as of yet.
650 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2023 Weak low pressure will quickly pass east across the Ohio Valley this morning. For this afternoon into tonight, a high pressure ridge will build into the Ohio Valley. The high will then move east on Sunday.
Additionally 500mb heights (594dam) are near the 99th percentile highlighting the amplified ridge in place over the region. (Today through Sunday) The persistent dry and warmer weather will continue this weekend, as high pressure over the Florida Peninsula will move slowly southward towards the Florida Straits. The threat of development will continue over the interior and west coast metro areas for Saturday night and again Sunday night as the low level moisture will remain in place.
Quiet weather conditions is expected today as an upper high pressure briefly builds into Northern California.
405 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2023 Satellite trends and RAP soundings suggest precipitation type should remain rain or freezing rain (depending on 2-m temperature). Low-level advection remains generally neutral and observations show some sites generally north of I-70 at or slightly below freezing. A light glaze could occur on areas that fall to freezing or just below, and we will have to watch for minor travel impacts, but this potential is low given the marginality of both modeled road surface temperatures and observed ambient temperatures. Later today, partial clearing is expected and as ridging amplifies to our west a warm-up will commence. A tighter than typical gradient will remain over the area and maximum temperatures will range from the low-mid 40s north to the low 50s south, falling to a few degrees either side of freezing tonight for minimums.
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap thanks to the bubble of high pressure, with temps around 15 degrees above normal.
201 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2023 Looking ahead into tonight, quiet conditions should continue across our forecast area as hi-res models highlight an mid-level ridge amplifying across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This should allow for overnight temperatures to drop into the low to mid 50s along and north of I-20. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow as the amplified ridge continues to spread across our CWA.
(Rest of today through Sunday) The mid-lvl ridge reaches its zenith over our area today with the observed H5 height of 594dam in the 12Z MFL sounding being a 99th percentile value for late February. Needless to say the dynamic subsidence associated with the ridge and associated bone dry mid- lvl air above the subsidence inversion (the base of which is near 850mb) will keep us dry today. Near the surface, the Florida Peninsula will reside between two maritime high pressure cells (one over the Gulf and one over the western Atlantic), supporting light synoptic winds with sea breeze circulations prevailing. The mid-lvl ridge will retreat slightly southward on Sunday while at the surface the weakening high over the Gulf will drift towards the area. Another warm and dry day is expected, with temperatures likely a touch warmer on the east coast (i.
Warmer air is moving into the region, with a few locations in central and south central SD reaching the teens and 20s. Locations along Highway 14 in eastern Hughes, Hyde, and Hand are seeing some downslope winds, which is causing warmer than expected temperatures. Southeast component for the Coteau Sunday could also result in some minor blowing/drifting, and while mixing won't be as effective, it will be much warmer aloft with 850mb temperatures a standard deviation above climo.
The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled falling heights at all SGLs, indicating the mean-layer ridging is deflating, although water vapor imagery would suggest otherwise. Surface observations place a meager ridge axis across Florida, with east winds averaging near 10 knots at the two KEY marine observation platforms. High pressure settled across Florida will maintain gentle to moderate east breezes tonight through Sunday night.
1030 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2023 Temperatures will further moderate today as warmer air aloft continues to advect in. A mixing wind will aid in bringing this air to the surface, with highs for the windier locations near or even well above freezing for the first time in a few days. On Sunday a low pressure system will approach from the Great Basin, coinciding with the arrival of a broader trough from the northwest. Models still show the low remaining a bit too far south to have much impact on Wyoming. The trough will instead be the main snow instigator on Sunday as a relatively moist westerly flow sets up.
1251 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2023 Weak low pressure will quickly pass east across the Ohio Valley this morning. For this afternoon into tonight, a high pressure ridge will build into the Ohio Valley. The high will then move east on Sunday.
/29 (Now through Sunday) An upper ridge over the Gulf remains generally in place through the period while a weak boundary currently stretched east-west across interior portions of the forecast area lifts slowly northward into central Alabama/Mississippi on Sunday.
On Sunday a weak warm front will lift north along with the possibility of a few light showers. With the warm front lifting through the area during the day tomorrow, temperatures will be warmer with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
1120 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2023 (The rest of today) Weak isentropic ascent continues across far southeast Oklahoma this morning atop the elevated frontal boundary within the low level moist axis.
A weak upper ridge will support dry conditions and mostly clear skies today. Snow and low-elevation rain associated with a cold front will spread eastward across the area Sunday morning, with deteriorating flight conditions and mountains becoming obscured, especially later Sunday afternoon and evening.
This would place the higher confidence areas in the southeast. Overall a general trough pattern will be found through the week bringing fluctuating temperatures and brief chances for precipitation.
Using a CONUS perspective 500-mb normalized ensemble anomaly, the US will shift from the highly amplified trough-ridge couplet, to a more zonal configuration with lower heights down into the Gulf States. The mean layer ridge will not go willingly, and it will take at least three pieces of Pacific short wave energy to erode the higher heights entrenched across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida.
150 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2023 (Issued 150 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2023) Tonight through Sunday: High pressure settles to the south of the area as low pressure tracks north of Lake Superior. The pressure gradient will tighten up a bit with a weak trough swinging through.
224 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2023 Dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures will likely prevail through Sunday night with crossing high pressure.
Favorable boating conditions continue across the local Atlantic waters today, with seas 1-2 ft and winds 5-10 kts, thanks to high pressure over the local Atlantic waters. This afternoon and evening, low pressure system quickly developing north of the waters and tracking eastward will result in a slight increase in winds to around 10 kts, possibly 10-15 kts, over the offshore waters.
The light NE wind will keep this shallow cool air hanging around longer into the afternoon, but we will see improvement on the fog with warmer air in the next few hours. /24/ (Sunday Night through Saturday) By Sunday night, warm air advection will have fully resumed areawide with a warm front continuing to lift north of the region. As this increasingly unstable air mass interacts with the incoming trough and trailing cold front, significant forcing is expected to bring a threat of severe weather mainly NW of our region across the Central and Southern Plains. Despite the primary severe threat being slightly displaced to our NW, a much broader threat of strong gusty winds will accompany the approaching cold front due to a very tight pressure gradient resulting from deepening low pressure over the Plains.
Area of high pressure continues to dominate weather conditions over the Gulf waters keeping fairly light winds and slight seas across the local waters into the weekend.
Potent upper low across SoCal has kept most of the cloud cover and moisture well to our south but it does appear based on satellite trends that we'll start to see increasing cloud cover later this evening and certainly into the overnight. As the aforementioned low moves east, an upper level trough moving into the Pac NW will begin to assert its influence on our weather. One thing to watch will be temperatures tomorrow and localized downsloping in the lower Snake and into the Magic Valley as well which could impact totals a bit.
Better agreement exists today resolving the low level moistening ahead of the storms by Saturday evening. The influence of the shallow cold airmass remains intact through deep south TX with sfc ridging holding moisture return at bay. However, the airmass south of the cold front and sampled by the 12z KCRP sounding is anomalously moist for the season and guidance trends are for a corridor of this favorably moist profile to be in place just ahead of the developing line of storms. Low level UH tracks also have reflections of curving to the north of the mean wind suggesting within the model a zone of favorable low level mesocyclones along the qlcs as it advances into NE OK Sunday evening. The next wave and cold front may bring a slight chance of rain by mid week to southern area.
334 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2023 Clearing skies and warmer temperatures are anticipated for Sunday.
A few lingering scattered showers could pop-up in a few areas north of Hwy 82 and across a few areas in the Pine Belt this morning as current model guidance continue to highlight a stalling cold front draped across south Mississippi lifting north out of our CWA. Areas south of I-20 could see highs in the low 80s. /CRJ/ A stalling cold front draped across south Mississippi will begin to lift north as a warm front, increasing cloud cover and rain chances this morning. Highs today will range from the mid 50s across the northwest to the low 80s across the south. Quiet conditions will continue through tonight as a mid-level ridge becomes amplified across the Lower Miss Valley suppressing moisture return. Expect lows to range from the low 50s to the low 60s.
Climatological highs for this time of year are around 50 degrees and low temperatures will generally be just a few degrees cooler.