Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Warming into the upper 60s to mid 70s on Monday ahead of the next cold front.
1253 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 As of 900 PM CDT, temperatures are approaching the mid-to-upper 60s under clear skies and light southerly winds that keep slightly milder temperature minimums in the lower 60s overnight. Top of the hour obs are all in the mid to upper 80s along and south of I-20 with cooler lower 80s across our northern half. The surface winds continue from the S/SE south of I-20, but a few SW sticks are over our north, as high pressure falls away to the east. It will be warmer overnight as our dew points climb through the 50s this afternoon, except in our parishes still in the air mass's grip with a range of mid to upper 40s.
It will usher in slightly cooler temperatures (although still above normal) for Sunday afternoon and slightly lower dewpoints. Temperatures will rebound to well above normal levels on Monday as sfc ridging will be focused to the east and srly flow will be in place across the state. Aloft, mid-level ridging will be in place to the southeast with a SW US trough progressing eastward, south of the Four Corners.
Temperatures will stay cool as a low pressure system approaches northern California and southern Oregon. Low pressure will move through the waters later tonight into Sunday with some rain, and light to moderate winds and seas.
With continued moist southerly flow, temperatures tonight will bottom out in the low to mid 60s.
Today will see a brief rebound ridge across the state, with one final day reaching around 70 degrees. Cloud cover will be on the increase through the day, associated with the next approaching trough. The main core of this next trough is dropping southeast across California, but enough energy and lift aloft will bring showers to the western portions of the state starting late tonight and into the day Monday. With a lack of initial cold air with this trough, precipitation will be mainly rainfall. Longer term model runs have pulled together very quickly in the last 24 hours, and are now agreeing on the next large scale trough for midweek.
The first push of cooler air arrives for the northwestern half of the CWA Monday, with highs ranging from the mid 50s over NE WY/NW SD to the mid 70s across SC SD.
By sunrise, the boundary will start to get bridged by onshore flow on the south side of a large, strengthening high pressure ridge centered over the OH Valley.
Today-Monday: Influence from an upper level ridge over the region continues to keep the area warm and dry. Overnight lows fall into the lower 40s to lower 50s, with cooler temperatures across the Eastern Ozarks. By Monday afternoon, an upper level trough begins to take shape across the southwest US.
As the upper trough continues to develop across the southwest US, surface lee trough will develop across New Mexico and allow better low level southerly fetch off the Gulf of Mexico to develop.
Forecast low temps with cooler readings in areas near OK/KS border and across NW AR line up with current obs, though some spots in far NE OK are within a few degrees of mins.
Surface analysis depicts complex low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes, with a weak frontal boundary over central Florida, and weak high pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, a broad trough is over the Northeast and the western Atlantic.
(Today and tonight) Upper air analysis this early morning depicts a wavy pattern to the west of the region as the mid/upper-level ridge has dampened almost entirely, with the two distinct features being Tropical Storm Norma moving over northwestern Mexico and a vorticity lobe rotating over the north-central Rocky Mountains. The net result from the decaying tropical system in addition to the amplification of the mean troughing to the west will not only maintain the cirrus shield but result in lee cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado and into northeastern New Mexico/Raton Mesa vicinity. The boundary-layer will once again become well-mixed this afternoon across the Caprock while the arrival of the 700 mb trough (resulting in southwesterly flow at that pressure level) will advect a warm nose of theta-e advection which will shunt PBL depths.
324 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 After cool early morning low temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s, ample sunshine will warm afternoon highs to near seasonal normals in the lower to middle 60s today. With high pressure drifting overhead, winds will be considerably lighter than they were yesterday. Thanks to ample sunshine efficiently heating the dry airmass, temperatures will rebound from chilly morning lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s to reach afternoon highs in the lower to middle 60s. As the high shifts east of the region, a light SE return flow will develop tonight. high temperatures will climb into the lower 70s.
With the added cloud cover and precipitation in the area, temperatures on Monday should be considerably cooler than today, reaching only the low 70s for areas that see rain, with upper 70s to low 80s elsewhere.
1222 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 (Tonight through Sunday) Frontolysis is occurring over the northern Gulf of Mexico, while a cold front moves southward from the Missouri Bootheel. This moisture was propagating over the upper ridge and was emanating from Tropical Storm Norma over Baja California Sur. A cold front moves north to south through the area overnight. Even with the cold front moving through, temperatures Sunday afternoon will remain just above normal from the lower 70s to the lower 80s. Longwave troughing will persist over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic while limited amplification of the ridging aloft to our southwest will occur in response to the Pacific tropical system continuing to approach Western Mexico.
Fair and chilly weather is expected Sunday night into Monday, as Canadian high pressure builds southeastward into the area. This looks like the chilliest night so far this season, with the first real threat for sub-freezing temps across the Allegheny Plateau and portions of the central mtns.
249 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 High pressure centered to our north early today will slide east of our region on Monday. Temperatures today will be much cooler than yesterday, with highs only in the middle 60s in our north and east, to around 70 degrees in southeast Missouri. Lows tonight will be seasonable in the lower to middle 40s, then there will be a significant warm up Monday with highs in the middle 70s to around 80s degrees.
High clouds are forecast to move in which may keep temperatures in the mid to upper 50s; however, if clouds take their time to move in temperatures will be a bit cooler. Opted to keep much of the region in the mid to upper 50s, and bumped temperatures east of I-75 in GA and the eastern FL Big Bend temperatures around the low to mid 50s. As of now, forecast lows are expected to generally be in the middle to upper 50s with a few spots in southwestern Georgia in the lower 50s. Lows Monday night are expected to be a couple of degrees cooler due to fewer clouds floating through.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a well defined H5 trough just off the coast of the PacNw which will continue to move onshore throughout the day bringing a cold front to SE Idaho tonight. Conditions will remain predominantly dry through the morning hours ahead of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon in WRN and CNTRL Idaho shifting east through the evening and overnight hours as a cold front works through the region late tonight into early Monday. The HREF 24-hour ensemble max wind speed with this cold front shows a 10 to 30 percent chance of sustained winds greater than 35 mph supporting gusts in excess of 50 mph across the lower Snake Plain and ERN Magic Valley south to the Utah and Nevada state lines highlighting the most active corridor for stronger storms.
As the disturbance moves away from the region Sunday, high pressure will settle over the region resulting in fair dry conditions for the first part of the week. Any morning cloud cover will fade with diminishing winds Sunday afternoon as high pressure builds overhead for Sunday night. This is a good setup for frost and freeze Sunday night, and confidence in subfreezing temperatures near the I-64 corridor is growing. Most areas west of the Blue Ridge will experience some frost Sunday night into Monday morning.
High temperatures today will range from the low to mid 80s in our AL and FL counties with predominately low 80s in our GA counties.
Mid-level ridging to the west and mid-leveling trough over the eastern CONUS is keeping the region in northwest flow aloft. A dry surface cold front has made its way through the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, allowing for dry air to advect into the area. The cooler air behind the front will begin to finally make its way into the area late this evening and overnight, allowing low temperatures to fall into the 40s. The ridge will persist across the region as a mid-level low develops over the southwest CONUS.
Closer to home, a cold front is tracking through the TN Valley, as of 2 AM, without much fanfare other than a northerly wind shift due to persistent dry air. In the post-frontal air mass today, cold air advection will make for a pleasant-feeling day with high temperatures peaking in the low to mid 70s.
While 850 mb temps fall into the 2-C to -4C range by tomorrow morning, which normally would be cold enough for lake effect, the entrance of ridging area keeps inversion heights and convective depths capped below 10k feet which keeps lake effect chances near zero. Light winds due to the weak gradient associated with the aforementioned high pressure system and clearing skies cause temperatures to fall into the low to mid thirties Sunday night/Monday morning, with the warmest temperatures near the lakeshore due to the influence of the relatively warm Lake Michigan.
At the same time, a fast-moving short wave trough will bring periods of light rain into the Laurel Highlands overnight. Fair and chilly weather is expected Sunday night into Monday, as Canadian high pressure builds southeastward into the area. This looks like the chilliest night so far this season, with the first real threat for sub-freezing temps across the Allegheny Plateau and portions of the central mtns.
(Today through Monday) Calm and pleasant weather conditions are expected to continue on Sunday and into Monday as well as a currently weak ridge over the area begins to amplify not just over Florida but over the entire eastern CONUS. PWATs will continue to hang around 1 inch or even less in many areas across South Florida with much of that moisture being elevated closer to the jet stream level and ample dry air in the low to mid levels. Winds will start to increase in the latter half of Monday as the overall pressure gradient strengthens due to Hurricane Tammy stalling northeast of Puerto Rico in the Atlantic and the ridge over us.
319 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Weak cold frontal boundary evident early this morning draped across the metro Detroit corridor effectively clears the area to the south by daybreak. This will work to offset a cooler than average resident thermal profile. High pressure then builds across the area tonight. Weak low to mid level ridging featured initially heading into the start of the work week. Trajectory of this moist plume reliant on positioning of associated 40 knot 850 mb southwest flow, a key to whether a brief elevated convective response along the advancing warm frontal zone can focus locally or remain just to the west/north during this time.
Breezy and cool are the operative words for today as channeled northwest flow around the departing upper low over upstate NY and New England brings (sub Advisory) gusty NW winds to central PA. High pressure continues to build into the region tonight, with fair and chilly weather expected tonight into Monday. This looks like the chilliest night so far this season, with the first real threat for sub-freezing temps across the Allegheny Plateau and portions of the central mtns.
One last shot of ridging returns for today to bring similar temperatures to yesterdays (mid 60s) and another dry period until late this evening. That said, the upper low currently sitting off the coast of the Pacific Northwest to begin to dig inland. While it will also continue to move it's main dynamics and core to the south, ample moisture and a cold front will pass through tonight through Monday and bring widespread rain showers and period of moderate rain across all of south-central and southeastern MT. While this will occur as rain across the lower elevations, locations above 7500 ft will switch over to snow by Monday evening and see accumulating snow.
As the disturbance moves away from the region this afternoon, high pressure will settle over the region resulting in dry conditions for much of the new work week. This is the area where confidence is highest that winds decouple in the valleys which will allow temperatures to drop to or just below freezing. Confidence for frost development south and east of the ridge axis falls with the uncertainty in wind speeds. Deeper valleys just south and east of the Ridge axis may see patchy areas of frost tonight, so a frost advisory was issued for this region and could potentially be expanded farther south. Leaned toward the slightly cooler NBM values for lows tonight. Dry High pressure will reside over the region through the period.
(Today through Monday) Upper troughs this morning over New England and off the Pacific Coast, with ridging developing over the southern Plains States. At the surface, high pressure was noted just south of Louisiana and over Minnesota, with a frontal boundary between Interstates 20 and 40. There was a large cirrus shield associated with Pacific Hurricane Norma that was getting pulled northeastward over the upper ridge. There is some fog being reported, mainly near warmer bodies of water and over the Atchafalaya River Basin, but not seeing large scale areas of fog at this time. The upper ridging will continue to move slowly eastward over the next 36 hours. We're likely to hold onto a lot of cirrus cloud cover across the area through Monday, but the lower levels remain rather dry, so no precipitation is anticipated.
Today Currently early this morning, upper troughing is centered to the east, and a deep low pressure system is located near New England. During the day, troughing will shift further to the east with high pressure expanding from from the Upper Mississippi River Valley. This will promote subsidence and a more northerly shift in winds as the high moves towards the Great Lakes. Tonight Heading into tonight, high pressure will settle over West Virginia and intensify from near 1,020mb to more than 1,025mb. However, the northern Plateau, northeast Tennessee, and southwest Virginia will be close enough to the high to allow for at least patchy frost development.
A cold front will approach the region, but ahead of the front it should be a day of above normal temperatures with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. As the aforementioned cold front works it way across the area Sunday night into Monday, a band of mid level frontogenesis develops from southwest, through central, into northeast North Dakota.
240 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Forecast Highlights: - Warm through Monday before beginning to trend cooler. Forecast Discussion: Northwest flow component in place behind a departing broad scale trough over the Great Lakes and New England regions. A broad but flattening ridge is in place over the northern Rockies and Inner Mountain West regions. The pattern becomes more progressive as the ridge over the the west continues to flatten. A lee trough becomes more pronounced through the day today into Monday resulting in steady WAA and a LLJ into Monday morning.
125 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Low pressure will track southeast across the area tonight, bringing scattered light rain showers before drier conditions return Sunday. Dry conditions will persist through the first part of the upcoming week, as high pressure builds across the area. Low pressure and a frontal boundary will quickly move east/southeast overnight. Winds should lessen toward morning as the low departs. Cool temperatures to range from the lower 50s northeast to the upper 50s southwest. Low temperature are forecast to range from the lower 30s to the mid/upper 30s with the coldest readings over the northeast. Expect a good threat for frost across the entire forecast area with freezing temperatures possible across the northeast and northern counties.
Probably 10 degrees cooler, which is much more seasonal. Highs are still expected to range from around 70 on the Plateau to the low 80s along the Tennessee River. Winds will then become northwesterly tonight as a weak dry fropa occurs, with much cooler temperatures expected on Sunday with highs only in the 60s to low 70s.
A dry cold front will continue to move across the FA through this afternoon putting an end to the unseasonably warm temperatures that are running about 10 degrees above normal. Near to slightly below normal temperatures on Sunday will not last long as models show an upper level ridge building over the FA through Monday night with a deep trough entering the western CONUS.
(Today through Monday) High pressure is starting to build in from the northwest following our very recent dry fropa.
The flow aloft will continue to become increasingly southwesterly as a strong upper trough digs into Southern California/Northern Mexico. An upper ridge axis will translate east across the area today providing some additional subsidence. While above normal temperatures are still expected today, we should be several degrees cooler compared to the last couple of days. Daytime highs should still range from the lower 80s to just below 90 degrees F. The increased cloud cover combined with the showers should result keep daytime highs limited to the lower 80s in Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas.
High pressure builds into northern Missouri by Sunday morning, gradually sliding off to the east throughout the day. Easterly to southeasterly winds and cooler H85 temps should yield slightly cooler max temps for Sunday afternoon. On the heels of this morning convection, aggressive clearing and continued WAA will provide a very warm afternoon, with Monday temperatures soaring into the lower to middle 80s. By midweek, broad southwest flow aloft will spread over the central CONUS and a reestablished poleward transport of Gulf moisture ahead of nearly-closed low slowly moving across northern Mexico.
A broad upper ridge just to our west continued to bring dry, northerly flow through the Missouri River valley region today. By 2 PM, temperatures had reached the low 70s across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa and mid to upper 60s along and north of I-80. Surface winds will veer to the southeast by Sunday morning, as the upper ridge flattens and shifts east. While most longer range models depict a strong upper low spinning near Baja California Monday night, there is a large disparity in regards to when this low ejects into the Central Plains.
Low temperatures will be a bit warmer than yesterday, mostly in the 50s.
A cold front will push across the region today causing cooler and showery conditions.
Approaching high pressure will provide drier weather Sunday afternoon. The West Virginia ridges may continue to observed light shower activity through 9am given upsloping. Afternoon high temperatures will likely trend 10 degrees cooler than average as 850mb range from -2C to -3C. Clouds will likely diminish southwest of Wheeling as a ridge builds to our west. However, low-lvl clouds may linger over Pittsburgh, the ridges, and near I-80 due to lake enhanced moisture and ongoing cold advection through late evening. A building ridge to our west will increase temperatures to near average Monday afternoon.
With the high pressure, cold air mass, and subsidence, temperatures will likely dip once cloud cover breaks over the next few hours, allowing for frost to form. Today, high pressure will linger over southern Wisconsin, creating calm, cool, and dry conditions. Highs will be in the low 50s. Some graupel/small pea sized hail isn't completely out of the question with the more vigorous storms too, as freezing levels may be low at around 13000ft.
Building high pressure will then result in dry conditions and a warming trend in temperatures during the upcoming work week. The West Virginia ridges may continue to observed light shower activity through 9am given upsloping. Afternoon high temperatures will likely trend 10 degrees cooler than average as 850mb range from -2C to -3C. Clouds will likely diminish southwest of Wheeling as a ridge builds to our west. However, low-lvl clouds may linger over Pittsburgh, the ridges, and near I-80 due to lake enhanced moisture and ongoing cold advection through late evening. A building ridge to our west will increase temperatures to near average Monday afternoon.
Key Messages: - Blustery with a few showers today, warmer and dry for Monday.
High pressure in place tonight will continue to support clear skies and near calm/calm winds. Weak cold frontal boundary evident early this morning draped across the metro Detroit corridor effectively clears the area to the south by daybreak. This will work to offset a cooler than average resident thermal profile. High pressure then builds across the area tonight. Weak low to mid level ridging featured initially heading into the start of the work week. Trajectory of this moist plume reliant on positioning of associated 40 knot 850 mb southwest flow, a key to whether a brief elevated convective response along the advancing warm frontal zone can focus locally or remain just to the west/north during this time.
357 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: The upper level ridge exits our region as a trough moves in from the west bringing cooler and wetter conditions for the rest of the forecast period.
611 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Enjoy slightly cooler temperatures today, but above normal readings are expected through the upcoming work week.
As this cloud deck breaks up this afternoon with better diurnal mixing, expect a transition to flatter cumulus given the lower inversion heights before clouds decrease overnight with the loss of daytime heating.
East of the Cascades we will see temperatures drop below freezing and snowfall is expected across some of the higher elevation areas. Further Details: Water vapor imagery depicts an advancing area of low pressure over the Pacific. 25" of rainfall over a 24 hour period is around 40-70 percent, with the southwest portion of the forecast area having the higher end of these probabilities.
A developing low pressure system approaching the northern California coast is currently impacting our area.
644 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Forecast Highlights: - Warm through Monday before beginning to trend cooler. Forecast Discussion: Northwest flow component in place behind a departing broad scale trough over the Great Lakes and New England regions. A broad but flattening ridge is in place over the northern Rockies and Inner Mountain West regions. The pattern becomes more progressive as the ridge over the the west continues to flatten. A lee trough becomes more pronounced through the day today into Monday resulting in steady WAA and a LLJ into Monday morning.
(Rest of Today) A dry reinforcing cold front has now moved south of the central TN Valley this Sun morning, with a light N/NW flow in place following the passage of the front. High pressure over the OH Valley is also starting to nudge southward in the wake of the front, as lingering cloud cover begins to diminish/taper off to the SE. With the light N/NW winds in place, temps this afternoon will struggle to surpass the lower/mid 70s for most spots.
Building high pressure will then result in dry conditions and a warming trend in temperatures during the upcoming work week. Clouds will likely diminish southwest of Wheeling as a ridge builds to our west. However, low-lvl clouds may linger over Pittsburgh, the ridges, and near I-80 due to lake enhanced moisture and ongoing cold advection through late evening. A building ridge to our west will increase temperatures to near average Monday afternoon.