Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Satellite imagery shows a stream of a few high clouds over southern IN/central KY with the highest concentration of wildfire smoke across Ohio and the Mid- Atlantic. In the meantime, high pressure northeast of the region this afternoon will shift eastward, and allow more of a southerly wind flow Wednesday. For highs Wednesday our counties west of I-65 should see cloud cover from upstream convection keeping readings down into the lower 80s, whereas other locations should see mid to upper 80s, more seasonable for early August.
655 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through midweek, leading to dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. A warmer and more humid airmass will return toward the end of the workweek into the weekend, bringing with it renewed chances for showers and storms. National blend of models begins to introduce PoPs Wednesday evening with a weak disturbance (and potential MCS- generator) descending the downwind side of a central Plains mid- level ridge.
530 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 High pressure centered to our north will control our weather into mid week.
A weak trough of low pressure over Nevada has helped trigger storms over Nevada and far northwestern Arizona today. This trough will also enhance activity over far northern Arizona on Wednesday as well. The center of the high pressure that has been circulating deep moisture over Arizona has started to move southeast over Texas. The high will continue to move south through Wednesday then it will elongate westward over southern New Mexico, southern Arizona, and northern Mexico.
614 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) High pressure will continue to strengthen across the region leaving even hotter conditions across our area.
755 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 High pressure centered to our north will control our weather into mid week.
633 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) A notable perturbation along the edge of the main H500 low pressure system as observed on the latest 19Z satellite analysis is assisting in developing convection over the NM/CO high terrain. Still favoring the western and portions of the central Panhandles, CAPE values with an nice inverted-v vertical profiles may result in higher probs of strong to maybe severe downburst wind potential from storms, especially the far NW Panhandles closest to the high terrain.
/Issued 1127 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023/ /Overnight through Thursday/ Heat and fire weather concerns will continue through Thursday as the center of a 597 dm ridge will remain firmly in place resulting in high temperatures around 10 degrees above normal and near zero chance for rainfall. /NEW/ /Thursday Onward/ Unfortunately, the Southern Plains subtropical ridge and associated triple digit heat is progged to persist into the weekend, ending the first week of the climatologically hottest month of the year as expected.
103 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure will build from the north through Thursday, then shift off the coast. Slightly drier high pressure will persist over the area Wednesday through Thursday. Given the building upper ridge during this time, the main forcing for any diurnal convection would be the afternoon sea breeze.
(Today and tonight) Looks like another very hot day across the area with a strong upper level high over the area and an intense low level thermal ridge over the northwest part of the area.
High pressure continues to be the story with hot and humid conditions at the surface.
05 inch PWAT on the 00Z sounding), subsidence beneath the upper-level ridge largely prevailed over the region this evening. A few showers and storms developed in southeast LA and far southern MS, but activity was notably less than previous days as the ridge has become more dominant. This and the presence of drier post-frontal air did limit the coverage of 110+ heat index values through the afternoon to portions of central and northeast LA as well as far western MS, but slightly warmer temps tomorrow may be enough to slightly expand this area of excessive heat. /NF/ Tonight and Tomorrow: A 594dam H5 ridge will continue to expand eastward to cover the region tomorrow. As a cold front currently near the coast lifts back into our area isolated diurnal storms and showers will be possible south of I-20 today and tomorrow.
(Wednesday through Thursday) What if I told you that you could go back 2 or 3 days, read the forecast discussion, and find that nothing has really changed? Maybe some subtle differences in the location of this troublesome ridge of high pressure and a change in the heat headlines from day-to-day. Ridging remains the main influence of weather over our region once again for this short-term period.
High pressure over the Intermountain West will gradually build northwestward towards the Pacific Northwest, which will result in increasing temperatures through the weekend.
(Today) Ridge aloft generally centered over the forecast area today and 00z regional soundings sampled further warming of the profile.
1207 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) High pressure will continue to strengthen across the region leaving even hotter conditions across our area.
312 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure builds into the area and will remain in control of the weather pattern through tonight. More widespread showers and storms will return Thursday with low pressure organizing over the Plains. High pressure is centered over Pennsylvania this morning and will slide east into the Atlantic by this evening. Temperatures this morning will be on the cooler side for August, with many areas starting the day out in the 50s and low 60s.
At the surface, an inverted trough is bisecting the CWA. To the west of the trough, lower dewpoints are noted with values in the middle 60s. East of the trough, lower 70s dewpoints persist. mainly to the east of the inverted trough. Have kept the highest pops north of 20, but they will likely have to be adjusted as the models get a better handle (hopefully) on any MCS development.
High pressure brings dry conditions, sunny skies, and near normal temperatures. Another day with seasonable temperatures! Highs will be in the low to mid 80s today with lows in the low 60s. High pressure settles in through at least Thursday, as a stationary front stalls over Missouri. Long range model guidance continues to trend slower with the breakdown of the surface and upper level ridging, with rain chances not until the weekend.
Hoenisch Warm weather persists the next few days as upper level high pressure remains over the area.
A large upper ridge remains over eastern Texas. On Thursday and Thursday night, the upper ridge will shift south and west.
This pool of better moisture will spread across SE MI through the morning and afternoon and will bring the low-end chance for showers, favored across KFNT up to KMBS. Some semblance of a warm front attempting to lift through the Central Great Lakes, and 850 MB temps rising above 14 C should support highs in the low-mid 80s. Modest instability and higher k indices reside north of I-69, worthy of slight chance pops with the warm front. This should activate the cold front, with some of the moisture from the Central Plains/Midwest peeling off to the east. The 850-700 MB Theta-E ridge advances into central Michigan, pushing PW values to near 1.
(Today and tonight) An upper level trough will move across the Great Basin into the Intermountain West today temporarily attempting to suppress the upper ridge centered over east Texas. The center of the upper ridge will not undergo much movement today.
407 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure overhead will lead to quiet conditions today.
205 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 An upper level disturbance combined with the sea breeze and a weak inland trof will produce widely scattered thunderstorms into early evening. Dry and seasonable high pressure will then build in for the mid to late week period. The high will shift offshore by the weekend with warmer temperatures expected. Tonight into Wednesday high pressure slides east across the Northeastern U.
1218 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) A notable perturbation along the edge of the main H500 low pressure system as observed on the latest 19Z satellite analysis is assisting in developing convection over the NM/CO high terrain. Still favoring the western and portions of the central Panhandles, CAPE values with an nice inverted-v vertical profiles may result in higher probs of strong to maybe severe downburst wind potential from storms, especially the far NW Panhandles closest to the high terrain.
Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY 205 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Cool temps are expected again tonight under high pressure.
237 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 The Great Lakes remain beneath upper-level northwesterly flow on the eastern side of a stagnant upper-level ridge centered over the Central Plains. Highs both today and tomorrow should range from the low to mid 80s, except in the mid 70s along the Lake Michigan shoreline due to lake breezes. Thursday evening, a cold front is expected to drift south and into northern Illinois from Wisconsin while in the process of "washing out.
Warm and dry conditions will continue through the week, as an upper level ridge continues to build.
152 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Aviation High pressure will begin to slide off to the east tonight allowing south flow to develop. As the south flow develops a very weak warm front will lift northward through the area. This activity is again associated with a weak warm front which is best seen in the theta-e gradient at 850mb. Not out of the realm of possibilities to even see a lightning strike or two of the lake given a boost in low level moisture from the warmer lake. Northwest flow aloft coupled with high pressure just to the east Wednesday will result in mostly sunny skies. - Small chance for a Thunderstorm Thursday afternoon north Models are showing a weakening cold front dropping down from the north northwest mid to late Thursday afternoon. Also the low level convergence remains weak.
The mid/upper ridge continues to shift/build eastward over the Deep South, yielding warmer low level conditions and keeping the train of upper disturbances displaced north/east of the region. Once again today the highest temperatures and heat indices will be focused the farther south and west one goes in the area, with slightly lower max temps and greater opportunity for daytime mixing farther east. Heat and humidity will be driving dangerous heat index headlines into the weekend as a robust upper ridge retains its eastern flank over the area.
322 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure will provide mostly fair weather through Thursday morning as it slides across New England.
134 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through midweek, leading to dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. A warmer and more humid airmass will return toward the end of the workweek into the weekend, bringing with it renewed chances for showers and storms. National blend of models begins to introduce PoPs Wednesday evening with a weak disturbance (and potential MCS- generator) descending the downwind side of a central Plains mid- level ridge. The highest will be across our southwest/south, with very low chances north.
107 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Broad high pressure will keep the area dry through most of Thursday.
149 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure builds into the area and will remain in control of the weather pattern through tonight. More widespread showers and storms will return Thursday with low pressure organizing over the Plains. High pressure is centered over Pennsylvania this morning and will slide east into the Atlantic by this evening. Temperatures this morning will be on the cooler side for August, with many areas starting the day out in the 50s and low 60s.
Upper ridging will build across the Rockies through this period, which will gradually lead to northwest flow aloft and low level ridging. Anticipate a cooler, drier airmass by Thursday afternoon. As low level ridging builds into the region, thunder chances diminish by Thursday. Temperatures will be cooler, closer to normal. An upper wave, currently near California, is anticipated to crash into the upper level ridging.
257 AM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Satellite imagery showed a strong ridge over the region dirtied by a good deal of mid and high level clouds thanks to a monsoonal flow from the south/southwest. Additional monsoon related energy will reinforce the pattern which evolves into a low amplitude trough settled over our region under the western CONUS ridge. Highs on Thursday will be in the lower 70s west to mid 80s east.
(Today and tonight) The tri-state area will remain on the eastern periphery of a deep layer ridge today, keeping the hot and relatively dry conditions in place across the region. Northerly flow through the deep layer, with northeasterly flow in the lowest 3km will favor keeping seabreeze convection and mostly confined to coastal portions of the Big Bend.
08/DML (Tonight through Thursday night) Strong high pressure continues to dominate the regional weather with excessive heat to continue.
(Through Wednesday) Upper level ridging builds in from the west, while a stalled frontal boundary holds over the region. Highs for Wednesday will be in the low to mid 90s. Expect overnight lows in the mid 70s with daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s.
Not much on radar upstream as instability and forcing is weak, so will keep PoPs on the low end. But with peak heating, steep low and mid-level lapse rates, freezing levels around 10,000 ft, still could get some strong to possibly severe storms with hail and gusty winds the main hazards. If the warmer GFS is correct, a couple spots will reach the low 90s.
This point marks a transition out of this monsoonal pattern and back to a drier and warmer pattern. The low over Wyoming will track slowly eastward overnight with a shallow trough at its base helping to sustain showers/thunderstorms across northwest Colorado in the evening. During the remainder of the period, high pressure will extend from the Gulf of Mexico to the eastern Pacific effectively blocking any avenue for subtropical moisture to enter the region.
An upper level high will be centered over NERN TX by midday. with most of the state under the influence of this upper high. where slightly cooler conditions will be noted. This is also the area on the NERN periphery of the upper ridge.
Regional radar composite imagery along with satellite imagery already show the effects of this with some isolate to scattered convection persisting along the Blue Ridge escarpment from the upstate SC area down into northeast Georgia in weak upslope flow there. With increasing moisture levels and lessening influence from upper ridging to our west, expect to see an increase in convective activity this afternoon.
308 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure will crest south of the area today and tonight then slide to the east on Thursday.
Farther west near the I-65 corridor to the AL/MS border, expect warmer low temperatures overnight dropping into the 65 to 70 degree range. (Wednesday through Thursday night) Tomorrow, the longwave trough will scoot into the north Atlantic allowing the the ridge out west to slide eastward and nudge into the region. On Thursday, an upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the ArkLaTex region, with the Tennessee Valley located on the northeast periphery. At the surface, a warm front looks to progress north/northeastward over our area during the day on Thursday, then hang up over the region overnight. As for temperatures, anticipating highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
1102 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Cool temps are expected again tonight under high pressure.
In the upper levels, a large persistent ridge over the Southern Plains and southern Mississippi River Valley today will gradually sprawl into the Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the week, while the trough along the Atlantic Seaboard slowly rotates east into the Atlantic. At the surface, weak high pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico today will give way tonight and Thursday as much stronger ridging over the eastern CONUS shifts east into the Atlantic and slides south into Florida through the upcoming weekend.
Scattered thunderstorms will move into ND by evening leaving us under an upper ridge. This upper ridge will remain in place over the Rockies and High Plains into later this week but monsoonal moisture has been introduced into this southerly upper flow and will move north toward Montana this week. Otherwise, the hot weather under the ridge will be tempered later this week with the upper low and the associated clouds moving in from the south. TFJ Flight Conditions: VFR Discussion: Warm ridge of high pressure remains in control. A low pressure disturbance emerges embedded within the flow later this week, which will bring monsoonal thunderstorms up this direction from the south.
Instability looks modest, but sufficient, and builds through the night as the lower level boundary moves east.
(Today through Thursday) A weak inverted trough rounds the southern edge of the persistent mid level ridge through tonight with a boost of moisture into Thursday afternoon. Southeasterly winds will increase Thursday afternoon as the pressure gradient strengthens a bit along the lower Texas coast.
355 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Broad high pressure will keep the area dry through most of Thursday.
1247 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Northwest flow will continue through Thursday night with MCS train on the edge of the upper ridge expected to remain southwest of our CWA. - Izzi The ridge that is situated over the central Plains will continue to inch eastward on Thursday, keeping the seasonal temperatures around, with highs expected to be in the mid-to-upper 80s. Weak synoptic flow due to the high pressure will allow a lake breeze to develop on Thursday with areas along the lakeshore only reaching into low 80s.
1222 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) A 597 dm H5 ridge is currently centered just to our north near the OK/TX border, providing us with clear skies and above normal temperatures.
1221 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure builds in tonight through Thursday.
(This evening through Thursday night) A strong mid to upper level ridge will remain centered over Texas and Louisiana through the entire short term period. Overnight lows will also remain warmer than average as temperatures only cool into the upper 70s and lower 80s. The deep layer subsidence will also limit convective development each afternoon as the combination of warmer and drier air in the mid- levels reduces overall instability, but some widely scattered convection as reflected by PoP of 30 percent will occur each afternoon.
1059 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Broad high pressure will keep the area dry through most of Thursday.
(Today and tonight) The upper level ridge continues it's gradual shift eastward with now a little bit of a shift southeast, continuing the trend of another dry day with another slight increase in temperatures.
645 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Cooler high pressure builds in over Eastern NC through Thursday. The next cold front and trough approaches by late week. Weak low pressure could move along this front across eastern NC over the weekend. In the mid-levels and further aloft, troughing offshore continues its Eward departure with ridging centered over the Wern Gulf States extending Eward toward SECONUS. Below climo lows again with MinTs in the low to mid 60s, upper 60s Crystal Coast, ~70 OBX. There is expected to be a minimum in precipitation chances again Thu as high pressure builds in from the north. NE flow will result in cooler but still warm highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Slightly cooler temperatures and a return of shower and thunderstorm chances are expected over the southwest today while central and northern areas remain hot and dry. Isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm chances increase over the southwest this morning and may reach as far north as the highway 200 corridor later this evening. 75 to 1 inch) begin to moisten the lower levels, so the gusty wind threat will diminish, but localized heavy downpours will become more common with the stronger storms. The cooler and cloudier conditions will knock at least a few more degrees off of Thursday's highs compared to today.
Temperatures will run a few degrees cooler area-wide on Thursday due to an increase in cloud cover.
647 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (Today and tonight) The tri-state area will remain on the eastern periphery of a deep layer ridge today, keeping the hot and relatively dry conditions in place across the region. Northerly flow through the deep layer, with northeasterly flow in the lowest 3km will favor keeping seabreeze convection and mostly confined to coastal portions of the Big Bend.
609 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (Today) Ridge aloft generally centered over the forecast area today and 00z regional soundings sampled further warming of the profile.
628 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure builds into the area and will remain in control of the weather pattern through tonight. More widespread showers and storms will return Thursday with low pressure organizing over the Plains. High pressure is centered over Pennsylvania this morning and will slide east into the Atlantic by this evening. Temperatures this morning will be on the cooler side for August, with many areas starting the day out in the 50s and low 60s.
1028 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure builds into the area and will remain in control of the weather pattern through tonight. More widespread showers and storms will return Thursday with low pressure organizing over the Plains. High pressure is centered over Pennsylvania this morning and will slide east into the Atlantic by this evening. Temperatures this morning will be on the cooler side for August, with many areas starting the day out in the 50s and low 60s.
615 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough will move across the Great Basin into the Intermountain West today temporarily attempting to suppress the upper ridge centered over east Texas. The center of the upper ridge will not undergo much movement today.
529 AM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023 The Tri-State area will be under zonal westerly flow to southwesterly as the upper ridge flattens out of over the Central Plains.
314 AM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023 The Tri-State area will be under zonal westerly flow to southwesterly as the upper ridge flattens out of over the Central Plains.
641 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure overhead will lead to quiet conditions today.
620 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (Wednesday through Thursday) What if I told you that you could go back 2 or 3 days, read the forecast discussion, and find that nothing has really changed? Maybe some subtle differences in the location of this troublesome ridge of high pressure and a change in the heat headlines from day-to-day. Ridging remains the main influence of weather over our region once again for this short-term period.
938 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure overhead will lead to quiet conditions today.
605 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (Today through Thursday) A weak inverted trough rounds the southern edge of the persistent mid level ridge through tonight with a boost of moisture into Thursday afternoon. Southeasterly winds will increase Thursday afternoon as the pressure gradient strengthens a bit along the lower Texas coast.
(Rest of Today) High pressure aloft continues to shift east over the ArkLaTex region, keeping northwesterly flow aloft. Afternoon highs will reach the lower 90s across much of the area, and upper 80s in the higher terrain.