Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
741 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure brings dry weather into mid week amid overnight and early morning valley fog. The rest of today will be dry, with fair weather cumulus present across the area as high pressure remains in control overhead. Clouds erode by late evening, then high pressure maintains calm and clear conditions overnight with the potential for patchy valley fog early Wednesday morning. Temperatures should range from upper 50s to low 60s in the lowlands and 50s along the mountains tonight. Wednesday is expected to be the warmest day of the work week, with highs rising into the upper 80s to low 90s in the lowlands and 70s to 80s along the mountains.
(Tonight) A really nice evening, with high pressure promoting calm/dry conditions across the Tennessee Valley overnight -- and some passing high clouds the only weather of note across the region. Lows will drop into the lower 60s across southern middle Tennessee and the mid 60s elsewhere across much of northern Alabama.
828 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure aloft centered over southern New Mexico with moderate westerly flow over Colorado. A broad ridge aloft will continue to be over the Desert Southwest on Wednesday. This ridge will keep subsident and dry flow over our forecast area. The only difference from today will be a weak surface boundary/cold front that moves through in the morning hours. This boundary will not do much other than make the high temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than today.
Hotter temperatures with drier weather is likely for this weekend as high pressure strengthens. High pressure set-up over eastern AZ and NM is helping drive thunderstorms in the are: a bulk of the activity is sitting over the Whites as well as around the Kaibab Plateau. Beyond today and tonight, a shift in the high will dramatically start to cut shower and storm activity tomorrow and into the end of the week.
621 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) A strong mid-level ridge is centered over the Four Corners region this afternoon.
Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 630 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Message: -Dangerous Heat continues Wednesday As a ridge of high pressure in the upper levels remains parked over Western Texas/Southern New Mexico, hot temperatures and high humidity will work in concert Wednesday, resulting in another day with maximum heat index values above 110F across the area during the afternoon hours.
351 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 High pressure and dry weather are expected through tonight.
407 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 A weak inland trough will develop today as high pressure builds over the Atlantic into the weekend. Otherwise, very warm temperatures continue with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Tonight: Quiet conditions anticipated with lows falling back into the lower and middle 70s. Zonal flow will prevail aloft as the region remains positioned between troughing well to the north and ridging across the southwestern states.
Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Message: -Dangerous Heat continues Wednesday As a ridge of high pressure in the upper levels remains parked over Western Texas/Southern New Mexico, hot temperatures and high humidity will work in concert Wednesday, resulting in another day with maximum heat index values above 110F across the area during the afternoon hours.
1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Another round of wet weather is expected to continue tonight into tomorrow before the influence of upper ridging begins. This activity will keep temperature minimums in the lower 70s with mid-to-upper 70s elsewhere.
(Today and tonight) Upper-level ridging will begin to expand towards the forecast area today. As the upper-level ridge expands towards us today subsidence will be on the increase.
The upper level ridge centered over southern New Mexico, and spread across the southwest U. But similar to yesterday, with the ridge maintaining itself, or slightly strengthening, there is low confidence that these storms will be able to make much progress into our area, so will keep the forecast dry.
Precipitation was supported by the lift from the jet over WY and 850 mb convergence, as well as a theta-e ridge analyzed over Powder River County. Weak and nearly stationary cold front is currently located just northwest of the forecast area outlined by weak ongoing convection near Lewistown. Can't rule out isolated weak instability showers over the plains, but any thunderstorms will be very isolated and confined to the higher terrain.
Cold front was progged to move through the remainder of the E by 12Z. WNW flow behind the front today will help dry out the airmass, as an upper ridge builds over the area. Upper ridge remains over the area tonight for dry conditions.
337 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 Occasional shower and thunderstorm chances return today with a cold front crossing the region. High pressure will continue to slide to the south and east overnight through dawn. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly north of PIT, as diurnal instability builds through the day and the trough approaches toward evening.
Then, high pressure shifts east today and we lose our northerly flow in the low to mid levels, making way for southwest flow to setup. This is due to temperatures being a few degrees warmer.
1034 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023 For the first half of the week a ridge will keep WY hot and dry. By the end of the week into this weekend the ridge will flatten, which should drop temperatures back to near normal and bring in slight chances for thunderstorms.
1025 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 (Tonight) A really nice evening, with high pressure promoting calm/dry conditions across the Tennessee Valley overnight -- and some passing high clouds the only weather of note across the region. Lows will drop into the lower 60s across southern middle Tennessee and the mid 60s elsewhere across much of northern Alabama.
1249 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 Occasional shower and thunderstorm chances return today with a cold front crossing the region. High pressure will continue to slide to the south and east overnight through dawn. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly north of PIT, as diurnal instability builds through the day and the trough approaches toward evening.
High temperatures today will rise into the lower to mid 90s with heat index values rising up into the 100s.
431 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 Weak high pressure will be building north over the area today and remain in place through the weekend.
142 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 High pressure in the Tennessee Valley this morning will move east and settle over the Appalachians tonight.
(Today) The main story today will be the heat across the region as an upper ridge nudges eastward out of the Desert Southwest and into the southern Plains. (Tonight through Tuesday) The upper ridge will retrograde slightly overnight tonight allowing for a return to northwest flow across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Otherwise, look for quiet weather late tonight and Wednesday under building ridge aloft. Weak and nearly stationary cold front is currently located just northwest of the forecast area outlined by weak ongoing convection near Lewistown. Can't rule out isolated weak instability showers over the plains, but any thunderstorms will be very isolated and confined to the higher terrain.
A weak inland trough will develop tomorrow as high pressure builds over the Atlantic through the week. Otherwise, quiet conditions will dominate overnight with lows in the lower to middle 70s. Aloft, nearly zonal flow will persist as the area remains situated between a large trough well to the north and weak ridging to the south.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler east of the Divide, due to a weak cold front that is pushing southward this morning. This front is associated from a trough that is now moving over the Northern Plains and brought severe thunderstorms over northeastern portions of the state Tuesday afternoon.
Widely scattered showers and occasional brief isolated thunderstorms have been propagating along and to the southeast of the trough for most of the night. Even with the lower CAPE though, anywhere from 30 to 50 kts of effective bulk shear could be problematic if air parcels are able to ascend above the LFC, but this again seems much less likely to occur than previously thought.
(Today and tonight) An upper high ridge over Northern Mexico and the American Southwest will continue to build across the Southern Plains resulting in more widespread heating under maximum sunshine. An upper trough interacting with a cold front/surface boundary is expected to initiate severe storms tonight across the Central Plains & Midwest Region.
Water vapor imagery and CIMMS mean-layer analyses highlight a broad subtropical ridge over northern Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico, which stretches well to the east of the Bahamas. The low- level axis associated with this ridge complex is nearly across the Keys and South Florida, with light east to southeast breezes registered at the Reef.
1154 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure aloft centered over southern New Mexico with moderate westerly flow over Colorado. A broad ridge aloft will continue to be over the Desert Southwest on Wednesday. This ridge will keep subsident and dry flow over our forecast area. The only difference from today will be a weak surface boundary/cold front that moves through in the morning hours. This boundary will not do much other than make the high temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than today.
Additionally, drier air, aloft and in the boundary layer, has started moving in from the west as the ridge begins to recenter over the next several days.
151 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 High pressure and dry weather are expected through tonight.
However, with calm winds expected to continue overnight and the thin nature of the high clouds expected to build east across the area, think some fog could develop this morning.
1215 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Hot and dry conditions will persist across the area through Wednesday as upper level high pressure dominates.
1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) A strong mid-level ridge is centered over the Four Corners region this afternoon.
627 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 High pressure and dry weather are expected through tonight. Warmer temperatures and the chance of rain return on Thursday and daily showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend. Another quiet day in store as high pressure continues to control the weather. 850MB temperatures warm as well, which will result in temperatures in the 80s and some low 90s in the lower elevations. An upper level trough looks to approach the eastern US from the west, while its associated cold front slowly tracks eastward through this forecast period.
Multi-model guidance shows quasi-zonal flow aloft transitioning to ridging over the West Coast during the second half of the week.
Weak high pressure ridging is overhead currently. Thursday look for a weak trough to move over the area.
748 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 High pressure and dry weather are expected through tonight. Warmer temperatures and the chance of rain return on Thursday and daily showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend. Isolated showers between Martinsville and Hillsville this In general, another quiet day in store as high pressure continues to control the weather. There were some isolated showers along the Blue Ridge between Stuart and Mt Airy. 850MB temperatures warm as well, which will result in temperatures in the 80s and some low 90s in the lower elevations. An upper level trough looks to approach the eastern US from the west, while its associated cold front slowly tracks eastward through this forecast period.
615 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 High pressure will help maintain mostly dry conditions through Thursday with temperatures close to normal.
928 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 High pressure will help maintain mostly dry conditions through Thursday with temperatures close to normal.
Begin this forecast period with an upper level closed area of lower heights located over the Hudson Bay, and a broad upper level trof located off of the United States west coast. The westward extent of this trof falls in line with Anchorage AK. During this forecast period, the higher heights build and retrograde. The associated ridge builds northward into Montana and further north along the Canadian Alberta/Saskatchewan border, allowing the lower heights over the Hudson Bay to slide southward toward the Great Lakes along the leading edge of the ridge. Throughout this forecast period the afore mentioned upper level trofing and ridging compete for the distribution of mass, and amidst this Temperatures remain close to normal through the end of this week.
621 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper-level ridging will begin to expand towards the forecast area today. As the upper-level ridge expands towards us today subsidence will be on the increase.
A cold front was drifting south and should settle over the area south of the Michigan border to a little south of the office/North Webster. The front should start lifting north as a warm front as upstream storms arrive. Chances for showers and a few storms will continue at times as an upper low drifts south and amplifies into the Upper Great Lakes region and as additional impulses move rapidly in the flow. VFR flight conditions today with cams pushing for the warm front to lift north this afternoon.
Upper air analysis shows high pressure centered over the southwestern CONUS with the area under west-northwesterly flow aloft. During the day today the upper ridge is expected to shift eastward.
A weak trough is passing through the region tonight, marked mainly by some higher level cloud cover passing just to the north of our area. We don't expect much else from this trough, other than another day of typical summer conditions with seasonable temperatures, dry conditions and breezy afternoon/evening winds.
As the frontal zone/main theta-E gradient remains well south of our CWA instability will be on the lower (elevated CAPE 500 J/KG or less), so lightning should be the main threat.
(Now through Thursday) An upper level ridge will slowly build across the area as the upper trough moves east. Despite the upper ridge, plenty of deep layer moisture and heating will again lead to the development of scattered to numerous showers and storms today.
While the mid to upper analysis indicates the ridge overhead, heights had either remained steady or slightly lowered since last evening. However, winds 700 mb and aloft may be light southeast with the relative maxima of the mid level ridging a bit toward our east. For now, the low chances PoP appear to be on track.
High pressure will settle in over the area tonight and through much of the day Thursday. High temperatures today will range from the mid 70s east to the lower to mid 80s along and west of the Missouri River. The upper flow pattern during this forecast period will feature predominantly northwesterly flow over our region as a Hudson Bay upper low shifts southward into the Great Lakes and a western CONUS upper ridge becomes more amplified.
As high pressure builds in from the west, surface flow will veer more southeasterly this afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 90s are expected with heat indices likely reaching the 105-110 degree mark.
Afternoon high temperatures are slightly cooler than yesterday but majority of the plains will reach the low 90s. Mountains and valleys will reach the low 70s to low 80s. More confidence in the dry weather across the high country and I-25 corridor with highs climbing above seasonal normals (90s for the metro/upper 70s & 80s high country).
Weak high pressure will be building north over the area today and remain in place through the weekend.
1002 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 A weak inland trough will develop today as high pressure builds over the Atlantic into the weekend. Per the 12z sounding from this morning's balloon launch, mid-level dry air looks profound for this time of year, and guidance even hints at dew points dropping into the low 60s across the far inland counties. Otherwise, very warm temperatures continue with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Tonight: Quiet conditions anticipated with lows falling back into the lower and middle 70s. Zonal flow will prevail aloft as the region remains positioned between troughing well to the north and ridging across the southwestern states.
641 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper high ridge over Northern Mexico and the American Southwest will continue to build across the Southern Plains resulting in more widespread heating under maximum sunshine. An upper trough interacting with a cold front/surface boundary is expected to initiate severe storms tonight across the Central Plains & Midwest Region.
925 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 A muggy start to the day with temperatures in the lower 80s and dewpoints in the upper 70s areawide. High pressure remains over the area, so little change in day-to-day weather pattern. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the lower 90s to the north with Southwest and interior Florida topping out in the middle to upper 90s.
1005 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 Occasional shower and thunderstorm chances return today with a cold front crossing the region. A weakening area of showers continues to track eastward across Ohio into NW PA in the vicinity of a southward drifting cold front. 12Z PIT sounding indicates a convective temperature in the lower 80s, and this should assist in the shower and thunderstorm development in the vicinity of the front. The flow aloft will push the cold front into the area with prime concern on Thursday being 18z to 00Z with timing being more fine tuned with additional model runs.
The heavier rains move east this evening with mostly stratiform showers into Thursday morning and then a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon as CAPE spikes up to over 1000 J/kg The upper low over southern Hudson Bay will slowly sink south with time across Ontario and eventually the U. The parade of short waves rotating around the low will result in enhanced chances for rain through the period.
and Thursday A developing low pressure system over the central Plains will track south of the area today. Abundant cloud cover will limit high temperatures to the lower to middle 70s today. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 50s across the north to around 60 across east-central Wisconsin. Highs on Thursday will be warmer; ranging from the middle to upper 70s across the north with highs around 80 across central and east-central Wisconsin.
Warming returns Thursday as high pressure reasserts itself and weak onshore flow slackens.
557 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over New Mexico/Chihuahua, w/a temperature of 86F at KMAF at 08Z. A broad trough is meandering south through Manitoba, and will begin pushing the ridge west Thursday, decreasing thicknesses over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico and shaving a degree or two off afternoon highs.
634 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (Today) The main story today will be the heat across the region as an upper ridge nudges eastward out of the Desert Southwest and into the southern Plains.
Dew points will be cranked up by this point so, even with temperatures in the low 90s, it's gonna be sticky.
The favorable Monsoon flow that finally brought deeper moisture and a daily chance of thunderstorms to the area will waver as high pressure shifts overhead and northwest of the area. We aren't going to be able to sustain that as high pressure builds in from the east and the high reconsolidates into a less favorable position to our northwest over the next 72 hours.
547 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 High pressure will help maintain mostly dry conditions through Thursday with temperatures close to normal.
An interesting feature in 2 of the High resolution models is some nocturnal storms in west-central Montana, so do not be surprised by the possibility of thunder waking you up between midnight and 3am.
South Central Texas will remain under the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge through the short term resulting in hot and dry conditions.
628 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) Mid to upper level ridge situated over New Mexico and Western Texas will continue to dominate the weather pattern over Southeast Texas. The high temperatures for today will be in the upper 90s to low 100s inland and in the low to mid 90s along the coasts.
749 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 Occasional shower and thunderstorm chances return today with a cold front crossing the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly north of PIT, as diurnal instability builds through the day and the trough approaches toward evening. The flow aloft will push the cold front into the area with prime concern on Thursday being 18z to 00Z with timing being more fine tuned with additional model runs.
The Atlantic ridge axis is expected to move northward into the area today, allowing for the east coast sea breeze to push inland this afternoon. Highs will reach the lower 90s from around Melbourne northward, with mid-90s possible along and inland from the Treasure Coast.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over New Mexico/Chihuahua, w/a temperature of 86F at KMAF at 08Z. A broad trough is meandering south through Manitoba, and will begin pushing the ridge west Thursday, decreasing thicknesses over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico and shaving a degree or two off afternoon highs.
636 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 A weak inland trough will develop today as high pressure builds over the Atlantic into the weekend. Otherwise, very warm temperatures continue with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Tonight: Quiet conditions anticipated with lows falling back into the lower and middle 70s. Zonal flow will prevail aloft as the region remains positioned between troughing well to the north and ridging across the southwestern states.
The high pressure system centered over eastern Arizona and New Mexico will continue to elevate thunderstorm chances primarily east and south of the Flagstaff area, with the greatest chances (60-80%) near the White Mountains.
The result continues to be an upward adjustment in PoPs for today's forecast with the highest values across the west and southwest.
Excessive Heat Warnings in effect for most of the area through Strong upper-level ridging across the area will continue to produce heat related impacts through much of this week, especially through this evening and into Thursday.
The Heat Advisory will continue through late this afternoon as temperatures range through the lower to mid 90s with dewpoints generally 77 to 80. 0 inches overhead, likely supporting the lee cumulus (occasionally congestus) near and north of the Lower Keys. The maxima in 700-500 mb heights being just to our east even as the ridge axis is essentially overhead, this relatively drier are should approach tonight. While there could be an episode of pre-sunset showers and thunderstorms near and north of the lower Keys, activity is expected to be mostly isolated overnight and focused on narrow cloud boundaries.
(Tonight through Thursday night) A strong mid-level ridge remains centered over the Four Corners region this afternoon.
230 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 KEY MESSAGES 1) Mostly quiet conditions into Thursday with perhaps some fog in the morning and warmer temperatures by afternoon.
1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 Showers are moving across the area, as a Low pressure system to our south pushes east. As the frontal zone/main theta-E gradient remains well south of our CWA instability will be on the lower (elevated CAPE 500 J/KG or less), so lightning should be the main threat.
Another very hot and humid day is forecast tomorrow as the upper ridge continues to expand eastward across much of the southern Plains. While some of the guidance depict light precipitation sneaking south into our area, soundings also show a decent layer of dry air in the lower layer which will mitigate most of it from reaching the ground.