Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In response to the approaching trough, lee cyclogenesis over the Central High Plains will strengthen the pressure gradient over the Central Plains. Warm air in the mid-levels might initially cap convective chances, but model guidance continues to suggest that this cap should eventually erode as cooler mid-level air arrives.
513 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023 Dry, sunny and warmer temperatures are expected for today.
A warm layer of air around 850mb will likely melt any snow falling from above, so the only likely precipitation to reach the surface should be rain or freezing rain, depending on boundary layer and ground temperatures. The areas of Central and North Central Wisconsin above around 1,200 feet elevation are most likely to see freezing rain late tonight through midday Monday. The remainder of the area will probably have surface temperatures a few degrees above freezing, with largely light rain falling.
A trailing cold front will approach the region from the northwest on Monday before eventually stalling. Increased southerly flow will also bring a plume of moisture northward with dewpoint values forecast to climb into the low to mid 60s by Monday afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures on Monday are forecast to climb into the lower 70s.
High pressure established over the Southeast US continues to be the driving mechanism of these chilly winds. Offshore marine platforms continue to show fresh to occasionally strong northwest to northerly breezes east of the Seven Mile Bridge. Temperatures across the island chain range from the upper to mid 50s across the Lower and Middle Keys with portions of the Upper Keys down into the upper 40s. Winds are not expected to last through this morning as the high continues to build towards the southeast subsequently loosening the gradient while veering winds towards the north to northeast by this evening. The high will be the determining factor for our sensible weather for the rest of the week.
437 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2023 Current surface map places weak trough across western South Dakota with temperatures in the 30s/lower 40s. Warm nose aloft may result in a few hours of freezing rain across south central South Dakota tonight, with <0. Further north, low stratus spreading into northwest South Dakota may present a small threat of freezing drizzle. Weak shear, lack of dry air above moist surface based layer, and potential for seeding will act to minimize freezing drizzle. For now, will leave mention of freezing drizzle out of the forecast for northwest South Dakota but will introduce some freezing fog.
414 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023 Today and tonight: We start this morning with widespread frost across the area and lows in the upper 20s to near freezing for most. The clear skies and light winds associated with the high pressure center over the area has shifted just east of Mississippi and with that we are starting to see increasingly southerlies on the western flank. This will transport an increasingly moist airmass northward as the upper ridging progresses eastward and upper troughing begins to lower surface pressure to our west. Tonight, the higher winds and humidity remain along and west of I-55 and those areas may only fall to near 50 F for lows despite mostly clear skies areawide. With lighter wind and lower humidity, eastern Mississippi will likely be significantly cooler with lows down into the upper 30s F.
More clearing and we should be able to reach the low 30s, maybe even mid to upper 30s in forested areas.
(Today and tonight) Longwave troughs at both the mid and upper levels will shift eastward through the day allowing for southwesterly flow aloft to increase over the Panhandle. Models are generally in good synoptic agreement, placing the highest winds on the Caprock. Cloud cover will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but the southwesterly winds will still allow for much warmer than average highs near 70.
Other than adjusting the high temperature today raising it a degree and matching current cloud cover trends, no other forecast adjustments were needed as we remain on track.
Rain chances will remain in the forecast today as an area of low pressure tracks across the region. Drier weather will then be on the horizon towards the second half of the week as the pattern shows signs of ridging.
A weak cold front in eastern NV early this Sunday morning will gradually drift southeast into Utah later this morning.
315 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2023 Mid and high level clouds will be thickening again today as the approaching trough moves into Colorado. Most of the showers will be associated with the main area of lift along the trough axis, now over Utah. Winds are relatively light though, in fact they will be lighter as the trough comes through, so there won't be much of an orographic component to this event. For the lower elevations, we'll be fighting a layer of dry air in the lower levels. Will see weak ridging move across the Central Rockies Monday as one system exits the region and another approaches. Even with the ridging, enough pacific moisture will be present for areas of light snow in the mountains.
427 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023 (Today) High pressure stretching from Indiana and Ohio south through Mississippi and Alabama will shift east today. After a cold start in the 20s, temperatures will warm into the lower to middle 50s in valley areas and upper 40s atop the higher Cumberland Plateau locations.
Dry, sunny and warmer temperatures are expected for today.
The upper-level trough will approach the area today. Morning lows range from mid-20s to low-30s and daytime highs climb into the low-40s to mid-50s.
329 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2023 A pair of storm systems will bring gusty winds at times, along with periods of valley rain and mountain snow to go with much cooler temperatures the first half of the week. A broad mean trough position is setting up through western states with the first storm to impact our area currently pushing in from the west. Clouds lowering with light showers developing in the increasing southwesterly to westerly flow under the digging trough. Initial snow levels still expected to be on the high side; possibly near mountain peaks to begin with before lowering to around 7k ft late this afternoon or early evening.
641 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure will prevail through the rest of the weekend before drifting east on Monday.
Freezing fog continues to linger across the area with dense fog largely staying north of the Missouri River. Redevelopment of freezing fog Sunday night into Monday morning looks very likely with the latest model guidance.
534 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023 Today and tonight: We start this morning with widespread frost across the area and lows in the upper 20s to near freezing for most. The clear skies and light winds associated with the high pressure center over the area has shifted just east of Mississippi and with that we are starting to see increasingly southerlies on the western flank. This will transport an increasingly moist airmass northward as the upper ridging progresses eastward and upper troughing begins to lower surface pressure to our west. Tonight, the higher winds and humidity remain along and west of I-55 and those areas may only fall to near 50 F for lows despite mostly clear skies areawide. With lighter wind and lower humidity, eastern Mississippi will likely be significantly cooler with lows down into the upper 30s F.
546 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023 (Today through Monday) Today will remain quiet with high pressure remaining the dominate feature of the forecast. However this high pressure will be sliding east throughout the day, shifting winds to a more southerly direction.
854 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure will prevail through the rest of the weekend before drifting east on Monday.
536 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023 (Today and tonight) Longwave troughs at both the mid and upper levels will shift eastward through the day allowing for southwesterly flow aloft to increase over the Panhandle. Models are generally in good synoptic agreement, placing the highest winds on the Caprock. Cloud cover will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but the southwesterly winds will still allow for much warmer than average highs near 70.
649 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 Much cooler and drier air will dominate the area this weekend.
* Quiet weather through tonight with warming temperatures An upper ridge will move across central Indiana today into this evening. At the surface, high pressure will move farther to the east of the area. High clouds will continue to flow across the ridge through today, but the lower atmosphere will be quite dry. Overnight, deeper southwest flow will allow mid level clouds to thicken, but the low levels will remain dry. Will go with partly cloudy skies today with the high clouds moving through, and will bring in mostly cloudy conditions tonight as the mid level moisture moves in. Clouds and southeast winds will allow for a warmer night tonight, with lows mainly in the lower to middle 30s.
545 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023 (Today through Monday) An upper level ridge axis extends over East Texas and the flow over our CWA has become southwesterly. Temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees warmer and dewpoints are 15 to 20 degrees higher than 24 hours ago. High temperatures today will be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Low temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today in this area. A weak cold front will move across north and central Texas Monday.
948 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 Much cooler and drier air will dominate the area this weekend.
629 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 (Today and tonight) Key Message: Slick/icy roads in shaded areas are possible this morning as below freezing temperatures may cause wet roads to freeze. Discussion: Currently we're sitting on the eastern edge of a ridge building in from the west today. With subfreezing temperatures expected area wide this morning any remaining wet roads from snow melt could have some slick or icy patches, especially before sunrise. With the ridge building in we'll begin a warming trend with temperatures around 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Quiet weather will continue tonight with slightly warmer, but still sub freezing temperatures expected overnight.
Cold sub freezing morning at most northern and some C and S interior sites with patchy frost in colder locations. As high pressure begins to dominate, a quiet weather pattern will persist. Radiational cooling will aid in dropping temperatures to at or below, freezing for many areas this morning. Sunday night holds potential for another round of freezing temperature, but mainly for our northern counties.
1016 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2023 Current surface map places weak trough across western South Dakota with temperatures in the 30s/lower 40s. Warm nose aloft may result in a few hours of freezing rain across south central South Dakota tonight, with <0. Further north, low stratus spreading into northwest South Dakota may present a small threat of freezing drizzle. Weak shear, lack of dry air above moist surface based layer, and potential for seeding will act to minimize freezing drizzle. For now, will leave mention of freezing drizzle out of the forecast for northwest South Dakota but will introduce some freezing fog.
107 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure promotes dry weather into Monday.
200 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2023 A storm system will result in periods of valley rain and mountain snow, breezy to windy conditions at times, along with much cooler temperatures the first half of the week.
Subsidence under this ridge will provide for clear skies.
Satellite water vapor channel shows a large trof located from the northern Rockies to the central Rockies. Cooler conditions are expected in the wake of the front with widespread 50s.
1058 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 Much cooler and drier air will dominate the area this weekend.
1001 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 Temperatures will gradually increase over the next few days as ridge builds to our west.
A low pressure system will continue to move north along the Pacific Northwest coastline today with a swath of moisture streaming to the south towards California.
(Tonight) High pressure continues to linger across the Southeast resulting in a seasonable winter day.
Cloud cover and increasing moisture have kept the higher fire weather threat at bay as humidity values have stayed above 50%. Bowlan (Monday through Sunday) Any lingering showers should quickly shove east of the area on Monday morning as the mid level trough axis pushes north and east.
317 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure moving in with clearing skies this afternoon and tonight.
1128 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 Temperatures will gradually increase over the next few days as ridge builds to our west.
(Rest of today through Monday) A dry, cool pattern will persist across South Florida for the short term as an area of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic United States gives way to deep-layered high pressure settling in over the eastern third of the United States. Favored MOS guidance for the temperature forecast overnight which places this forecast a degree or two cooler than the consensus average for the blend of models in this cycle. Besides the potential development of onshore flow before sunrise if the high slides eastward earlier, another potential forecast challenge is just how light the winds will become overnight and if the skies remain optimally clear.
Adiabatic cooling from favorable southerly flow into the Southern San Juan Foothills should keep us in all snow for this event although dew points sitting in the lower 30s do add a little concern that we could see some rain mix in later today at and blow the 6k level.
240 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 (This afternoon through Monday) 500mb ridging will begin to break down late tomorrow as as an upper low moves across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure ridge remains in place through most of Monday. However, the ridge should begin to move offshore late Monday as a cold front approaches from the west. Temperatures are expected to continue at near normal values overnight but begin to moderate Sunday and Sunday night ahead of a cold front.
Thus, we could see some freezing drizzle or snow flurries across almost all of western and central North Dakota through Monday night. Some light freezing rain is also possible as precipitation begins across the south central and southeast Monday morning before changing to all snow later in the day.
Thru the day, compact and high-amplitude H500 ridging should shift Ewrd allowing for broad troughing over the Four Corners region to overspread the Srn-Cntrl US. Sustained Srly winds of 15-20 kts and accompanying gusts of 30 knots or more wl be common over Wrn and N/Wrn AR today, w/ potentially greater values in the higher terrain of the Ozarks and Ouachitas.
Additional chances for rain and maybe some snow, exist later this week and the weekend with cooler, more seasonable temperatures returning. These clouds along with the additional warm air advection can provide a little bit of a floor for temperatures tonight, however, could see some cold air actually drain into the region tonight to allow for slightly cooler than expected temperatures. With a deepening upper level low pressure system taking a northeastward track to our northwest tonight through Monday night, expect rain to overspread the region Monday. Despite temperatures approaching freezing, feel the airmass will be dry enough to hold off any substantial onset wintry precipitation so will continue to remove that mention and keep that period dry.
High pressure will prevail through the rest of the weekend before drifting east on Monday.
After a colder start this morning, temperatures will gradually increase but still stay much cooler than normal. Highs will range in the upper 50s across Lake and Volusia counties and in the low 60s farther south across east central Florida. Dry and sunny conditions will continue, with lighter N/NW winds today as high pressure builds S/SE into the area. As high pressure settles across the area into tonight, light winds/clear skies and the dry airmass in place will make for another very cold night. Some normally colder spots northwest of I-4 and across Okeechobee and Osceola County may still reach near freezing, but this should be rather isolated.
1053 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023 (Today through Monday) An upper level ridge axis extends over East Texas and the flow over our CWA has become southwesterly. Temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees warmer and dewpoints are 15 to 20 degrees higher than 24 hours ago. High temperatures today will be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Low temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today in this area. A weak cold front will move across north and central Texas Monday.
Another fair and cold night with lows below freezing. Discussion: An upper level ridge is building over the eastern Tennessee Valley today and is finally helping to warm temperatures this afternoon. Over the next 24 hours low pressure develops over the central Great Plans and moisture builds through the lower Mississippi Valley with increased moisture in the form of clouds and rain spreading into the western Tennessee Valley Monday morning. A warm front will move into Tennessee by tomorrow evening.
* None Energetic flow of Pacific origin will continue to govern conditions this forecast period, affording a thermal profile that remains generally edged on the warmer side of average while offering a couple episodes of precipitation during the upcoming work week. Resident environment currently marked by deep layer stability held within dry low level conditions, as upper ridging anchors atop slowing exiting surface ridging. A general increase in mean thickness values given the underlying rise in geopotential heights and emergence of weak southerly flow yields warmer conditions. Ensuing mass convergence effectively establishes a respectable low level response, as southwest flow strengthens within the eastern flank of the surface cyclone. Brief window for sub-freezing wet bulb temps may offer a shot for melting snow at onset across northern sections, before soundings support all rain within the background of ongoing warm air advection.
While this will generally be focused west of Indiana until Monday morning, sloping/ascending moisture from the upstream trough will bring increasing high and eventually mid level clouds through tonight and early Monday.
Just upstream, however, there are dew points in the lower 30s that could still advect into the Upper Keys this afternoon and early evening.
210 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure builds in tonight into Monday.
The cold conditions will continue tonight as temps drop quickly after sunset with optimal radiational cooling for another round of freezing temps mainly for our northern counties and freeze warnings are issued. High pressure has weakened and will move through the region with marine conditions improving as the winds and seas diminish tonight into the first half of the week. Light transport winds and low dispersions are anticipated through Monday, along with patchy frost early Monday morning, as stable high pressure remains centered overhead.
As the flow aloft has trended more SW, moist advection has ushered in abundant clouds throughout the day in advance of an ejecting upper-level trough and accompanying cold front across the Southern Plains. Through the day on Monday, expect a continuation of low-end rain chances across much of the region as the upper trough lifts more NE toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. With support and forcing farther displaced to the north, the cold front will struggle to make much southward progress into our region. High temperatures will range from the lower to mid 70s as breezy S/SW winds will continue over the vast majority of the region, owing to the frontal boundary stalling near/along our northern tier counties. The upper trough will pivot farther east into the OH/TN Valleys by Monday night with any lingering convection exiting our region.
Taking a look upstairs, a mid level ridge is moving over the region this afternoon. On Monday, an upper level trough begins to move closer to the region. This parent trough with a weak surface front will move into the region toward the end of the short term period.
1113 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023 (Today and tonight) Longwave troughs at both the mid and upper levels will shift eastward through the day allowing for southwesterly flow aloft to increase over the Panhandle. Models are generally in good synoptic agreement, placing the highest winds on the Caprock. Cloud cover will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but the southwesterly winds will still allow for much warmer than average highs near 70.
206 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure promotes dry weather into Monday.
1123 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023 (The rest of today) Tight pressure gradient over the region today between departing high pressure to the east and lee side low pressure over the central and southern High Plains.
1018 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure will continue across the CWA today.
117 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure builds in tonight into Monday.
However, with a couple more hours of heating and breaks in the clouds, we could still see a few spots hit the lower 70s.
256 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure will build into the area tonight through Monday.
1214 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 Much cooler and drier air will dominate the area this weekend.
240 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure will prevail through the rest of today before drifting east on Monday.
328 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 Dry conditions will continue tonight into Monday afternoon as high pressure shifts east of the area.
(The rest of today) Tight pressure gradient over the region today between departing high pressure to the east and lee side low pressure over the central and southern High Plains.
However, Big Pine Key in the Lower Keys usually experiences the most radiational cooling of the islands given its size and micro- climate (Pine Rockland), and it has already cooled to 50 degrees in the northern portion of the island. The rest of the Lower Keys, which will not be under the direct influence of flow off the mainland, with likely fall in the 50-53 range for low temps.
(This afternoon through Monday) 500mb ridging will begin to break down late tomorrow as as an upper low moves across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure ridge remains in place through most of Monday. However, the ridge should begin to move offshore late Monday as a cold front approaches from the west. Temperatures are expected to continue at near normal values overnight but begin to moderate Sunday and Sunday night ahead of a cold front.
Shower activity continues to diminish as weak high pressure builds aloft.
644 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure builds in tonight into Monday.
A diffuse upper level trof is moving slowly through eastern Idaho with an associated cold front which has moved through the state. Generally 1 to 3 inches has fallen today with temperatures very near freezing on either side of it so have had only minor travel impacts but could see some freezing on roads especially after sunset. Expect snow to end in the Island Park area late Monday with snow from the next upper low maybe moving into the extreme southern highlands along the Utah border late Monday night.
The cold front is currently near a line from Cut Bank to Loma to just north of Lewistown, with the front slowly moving southward. There is enough warm air ahead of the front, that some precipitation over Central MT could begin as light rain at lower elevations, and then slowly change over to snow on Monday morning, as the cold front continues to push southward.
The cold conditions will continue tonight as temps drop quickly after sunset with optimal radiational cooling for another round of freezing temps mainly for our northern counties and freeze warnings are issued. High pressure has weakened and will move through the region with marine conditions improving as the winds and seas diminish tonight into the first half of the week.
943 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 Dry conditions will continue tonight into Monday morning as high pressure shifts east of the area.