Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
CLOUD TREND AND RELATED FOG THREAT TONIGHT Fall-like weather is making an early appearance with cooler temperatures, helped by extensive stratus field over Great Lakes region. Per usual it is locked in across eastern Minnesota and eastern Iowa but as upper ridge builds in, expect some erosion at least on western sides. Of note, have also been tracking convection across the Central Plains /South Dakota & Nebraska/ which is tied to short wave energy tracking across northern periphery of upper ridge. This feature is expected to start a more southeastward drift as wave rotates around back side of ridge and hence, will likely keep much needed rain southwest of the immediate area.
As the low pressure system continues to exit the region to the southeast, the 850mb thermal trough lags behind and is leading to a low stratus deck draped from the mid/upper Mississippi Valley to central Ohio. Low temperatures in the morning are expected to be in the low-mid 60s. On the northern periphery of the ridge over the southwestern US, a mid-level trough will form and strengthen as it moves to the east in the overnight hours. By morning, this trough will begin to enter the mid-Mississippi Valley region. This approaching trough will help the larger trough already in the region to stall. This in turn will sustain the low stratus deck for tomorrow as well. Cool and mostly dry weather will continue into the weekend as upper level troughing remains fixed over the eastern CONUS.
1241 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Cooler weather will continue for the foreseeable future. Low level cyclonic flow around low pressure over the Great Lakes is promoting a persistent low level cloud shield with just a few breaks embedded, and perhaps a few sprinkles as well. * Cooler, fall-like weather is expected through the foreseeable future. An expansive area of low stratus tied to an upper trough/low is present over a good portion of the Midwest states early this morning.
1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (Today and tonight) A sprawling subtropical ridge will remain stout over the area today with a weak short wave moving out of the Rockies into the Central Plains. This surface cyclone will move across the Texas Panhandle this afternoon dragging a surface pressure trough behind it to the southwest. Low level convergence within the trough and strong surface heating will allow a cumulus field to develop. Whether this is enough lift to see any thunderstorms remains unclear given the strength of the ridge overhead.
At the upper levels still noting an upper trough slowly sagging southward towards the southeast. (Today through Friday) 500mb troughing will remain overhead through the short term period of the forecast. An upper low currently across western IL will deepen and drop SE in the flow through today and remain in place across the state through tomorrow. At the surface, a cold front currently stretches from the central Great Lakes back through the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
332 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue through this afternoon under high pressure. Temperatures will cool as clouds and thunderstorm chances increase into the weekend as a cold front moves into the area and stalls. Strong to severe convection ongoing across east- central GA this afternoon should begin to track to the NE ahead of the trough axis. Also, additional convection should develop along and ahead of a cold front, which will cross the mountains this evening and stall across the central Carolinas later tonight. Lower geopotential heights, along with additional cloud cover, will translate into highs ~5 degrees cooler than Thursday.
1224 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Mid-level WV imagery early this morning clearly shows yesterday's low pressure system now over the eastern Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs today are only expected to top off in the low 50s, except for the south and east, which will climb into the upper 50s/low 60s. Key Messages: -Skies become mostly clear tonight through Friday night with some fog or frost potential for cooler interior locations.
248 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Cold front moves into the area late today producing scattered storms with a marginal severe risk. An upper level low will dig into the Deep South today. An associated cold front and pre-frontal trough will serve as triggers for convection this afternoon. Ahead of the low, a weak capping inversion and PWAT values less than 1. This will lead to moderate destabilization from diabatic heating but coverage should be limited until at least the late afternoon when the pre-frontal trough and upper support will near the forecast area. The upper low will be just south of the area causing better support of convection to remain to our south.
(Rest of Today) The cold front (which was responsible for shower and thunderstorm activity across the TN Valley yesterday evening) has now spread southeastward and out of the local CWFA.
With the bulk of interior NorCal nestled between troughing over the Pacific Northwest and ridging over the Four Corners, southwesterly flow aloft remains in place. Moving toward the weekend, ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the ridging over the Four Corners will gradually begin to retrograde westward into the Desert Southwest. While the primary ridge axis will remain to the south of the forecast area, with increasing heights aloft, temperatures are still expected to see a slight upward bump. The primary limiting factor for precipitation potential being the westward extent of the ridging aloft as it builds in.
338 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Upper level trough over the Great Lakes along with weak disturbances will provide considerable clouds late this week into the weekend.
218 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Cooler weather will continue for the foreseeable future. * Cooler, fall-like weather is expected through the foreseeable future.
A dome of high pressure remains centered over El Paso, Texas while an upper trough persists over the eastern Pacific. Ensemble means agree the upper ridge will move west towards southern California into the weekend.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Upper ridge centered over Srn NM tonight extends from Srn CA to LA as an upper trough digs down across the SE states. The ridge will very slowly drift west as it spins along the US/MExico border and the trough will move farther down over FL.
Cooler air from Canada as well as extensive cloud cover will keep temperatures in the low 70s, with upper 60s expected along the lakeshore. A Beach Hazard Statement was continued for the High Swim Risk. As higher pressure builds and clouds diminish, Friday is looking similar to Thursday if not a couple degrees warmer with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. However, persistent northerly winds aloft will advect cooler air around 7 to 8 degrees Celsius at 850 mb atop Lake Michigan water temperatures of 20-21 C early Friday morning. DK With the Lower Great Lakes in a relative stagnant point in the upper- level flow this weekend, quiet and non-impactful weather is expected.
/22/ Tonight and Tomorrow: An upper-level low pressure system has been moving southeastward from KY/TN toward GA/SC today. Thunderstorms have been developing on the northern edge of the low-level ThetaE axis in southern AR, as well as in the better instability axis around southern MS/LA. Flow aloft is northwesterly, or parallel to the surface cold front boundary through AR/LA/central MS.
531 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 For this update we expanded the low pops to the east of Minot as showers were decreasing but yet holding together and moving east of the eastern edge of the pop forecast.
The current warm front appears to move into eastern Oklahoma and a secondary baroclinic zone develops tomorrow along a line from west-central Oklahoma (near CSM) to southwest Oklahoma (near Ringling).
608 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (Remainder of today and tonight) There have been no changes to forecast reasoning for the remainder of the afternoon, as regional ASOS/AWOS observations indicate that a slightly cooler/drier boundary layer airmass will continue to spread southeastward in the wake of a cold frontal passage earlier this morning. Lows will in all likelihood be just a degree or two warmer than dewpoints due to expectations of a light but persistent NNE wind. However, there is some indication that low stratus clouds may attempt to build southward into the region from northern portions of the TN Valley, and this could result in slightly warmer low temps (especially across the eastern half of the CWFA).
627 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Cooler weather will continue for the foreseeable future. * Cooler, fall-like weather is expected through the foreseeable future.
The low clouds hugging the coast will move inland as the sun sets. The lower confidence portion of the forecast will be the extent of cloud cover tonight. The large area of high pressure to the east will continue to inch its way westward. Building 500mb hts and warming 850mb temps will contribute to a more compressed marine layer and slightly warmer temperatures.
Overall, how much temperatures decrease will depend on the cloud cover, but did adjust lows down slightly to be in the lower to mid 60s based on the above trend.
The main component will be the four corners ridge of high pressure and several weak troughs that will work to dampen the amplitude of the ridge when they pass to the north of it (and consequently to the north of our area). The first trough is moving through the Pacific Northwest now through tonight. Friday will be similar in nature, if not a few degrees warmer as the ridge builds into place over the weekend.
813 PM MDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A rinse and repeat weather pattern continues across the area through the end of the week, with highs in the 70s and low 80s, with a few afternoon showers each day across the higher terrain.
A cold front is still expected to be south of the area by Friday, with drier conditions building over the area. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will progress through the forecast area this evening before pushing offshore through the overnight hours. Highs on Friday range from around 90 well inland to the lower to mid 90s elsewhere.
It appears the lower troposphere will remain sufficiently moist to support shallow convective showers once again tomorrow. This has resulted in gloomy conditions today and helped keep central Indiana around 10 degrees cooler than normal. This should leave the Ohio Valley in a cooler region beneath low heights.
530 PM MDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Aviation Section Updated A rinse and repeat weather pattern continues across the area through the end of the week, with highs in the 70s and low 80s, with a few afternoon showers each day across the higher terrain.
601 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Upper ridge centered over Srn NM tonight extends from Srn CA to LA as an upper trough digs down across the SE states. The ridge will very slowly drift west as it spins along the US/MExico border and the trough will move farther down over FL.
High pressure will then settle over the nrn Great Lakes for Fri-Sat. Gehring (Issued 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023) Tonight through Friday Night: North winds gradually subside and turn slightly northeast overnight as high pressure builds into the upper Great Lakes region from the north. As the winds and waves decline tonight, the High Swim Risk for Racine and Kenosha counties downgrades to a Moderate Swim Risk. Clouds gradually clear out from west to east on Friday, allowing daytime highs to rise about 2-5 degrees warmer than today. Not expecting precipitation underneath the high pressure system, but a stray shower along the Lake Michigan shoreline cannot be ruled out.
726 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A wavy cold front exits this evening with scattered showers and storms ahead of it. Cooler for the weekend as unsettled weather continues courtesy of a lingering upper trough overhead. A cold front pushes east of the mountains, while a reinforcing cold front crosses from the northwest bringing a drier airmass to the area tonight. More comfortable temperatures expected Friday afternoon with highs ranging from the lower 80s across the lowlands, into the upper 60s highest elevations. * Temperatures will be cooler than normal. Cloud cover and precipitation should keep daytime temperatures cooler than normal over the weekend, with highs expected to range from mid 70s to around 80 for much of the CWA, and 60s to low 70s in the higher mountain elevations.
614 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A slow moving cold front will eventually move through the region this evening. Behind this front, cooler temperatures and unsettled weather are expected to linger into the weekend. A broken line of showers and storms will continue to progress eastward with a cold front this evening. A secondary front will approach from the west this evening, and then likely stall near or in the ridges towards morning. The secondary boundary will remain stalled or move eastward only very slightly eastward into Friday night, as ridging just off of the Eastern Seaboards slows progress.
Strengthening high pressure across Arizona into the weekend will result in a continued warming trend and dry conditions.
627 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Upper level trough over the Great Lakes along with weak disturbances will provide considerable clouds late this week into the weekend.
1032 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Cold front moves into the area tonight, then stalls across the area keeping showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend. Cold front will be nearing the area towards morning. The upper low will be just south of the area causing better support of convection to remain to our south.
735 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Cold front moves into the area tonight, then stalls across the area keeping showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend. Cold front will be nearing the area towards morning, but little to no rainfall expected as it moves into the area. The upper low will be just south of the area causing better support of convection to remain to our south.
1026 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A cold front continues to move into the area from the west today bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe.
935 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Developing inland troughing combined with a trough aloft will be bringing more unsettled conditions to eastern North Carolina Friday through the weekend. The hot pattern will begin to wane after today as a trough aloft replaces the persistent upper ridge which has been over the area for most of this week. Broad upper level troughing begins to become established on Friday which will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms.
940 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 High pressure will build over the Great Lakes as a cold front crosses southeast through the Ohio Valley tonight. The high will keep a cool, northerly flow in the region that could promote scattered to isolated shower development Friday afternoon. Lows will range from the upper 50s in Indiana and north- northwest of Dayton, to the low 60s in the Scioto Valley and northern Kentucky. Morning clouds are possible again Friday morning under the trough. A mean mid level trough will reside across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this weekend. This moisture, combined with weak ascent, and a nearby inverted trough, will result in a chance of showers/storms in this area. Temperatures will be cooler than normal, mainly in the 70s with lows in the 50s/lower 60s.
An upper level trough and associated surface cold front were moving east over the forecast area this afternoon, with the front in the process of transitioning across the Appalachians. Despite the surface cold front being passed through, drier low level air will be slow to advect into the area. Forecast soundings suggest that with the aid of the disturbances aloft, convective precip may again generate with daytime heating and potentially go into Friday night, with the highest POP over our eastern counties. The upper level pattern will start out with a high pressure dome centered over the Southwest and will extend northward across the Rockies and portions of the Plains. General troughiness will cover the eastern CONUS with several upper level lows scattered across the Southeast.
730 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Temperatures trend cooler through the weekend. A slow moving upper-level trough will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region throughout this period. Temperatures also begin to trend cooler to finish out the work week. The aforementioned trough will remain over the region, kicking off additional showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. A very broad and misshapened trough pattern over the Mid- Atlantic states supplies deep southerly flow to advect moisture into our area this weekend.
The region is on the dry and subsident side of a swirling upper low centered over middle Tennessee this afternoon. Much cooler and less humid conditions have overspread the area. Northerly flow at the surface and aloft continues through tomorrow and another pleasant and less humid day with max temps in the low 80s is forecast. A few middle and high clouds are likely in the vicinity of the slowly advancing trough to the east.
622 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Temperatures trend cooler through the weekend. A slow moving upper-level trough will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region throughout this period. Temperatures also begin to trend cooler to finish out the work week. The aforementioned trough will remain over the region, kicking off additional showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. A very broad and misshapened trough pattern over the Mid- Atlantic states supplies deep southerly flow to advect moisture into our area this weekend.
Skies will continue to clear from the southwest into Friday morning as overnight lows drop into the low to mid 50s across the Lower Columbia Basin. An upper level ridge begins to build across the Pacific Northwest on Friday, allowing for dry conditions and high temperatures 1-3 degrees warmer than on Thursday.
The surface cold front itself may make a bit more southeastward progress through tomorrow morning before becoming stationary across southeast portions of the CWA. -Slightly cooler overnight temperatures both tonight and Friday night. A 500mb trough continues to drop southward towards the southeast this afternoon and continue to be the main driver of the convective activity through the evening. Upper troughing remains parked over the area tomorrow. Temperatures (at least overnight temperatures) should be slightly cooler given the upper level pattern. Forecast low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s.
For this update we expanded the low pops to the east of Minot as showers were decreasing but yet holding together and moving east of the eastern edge of the pop forecast.
Expect sunny skies with highs in the low 80s to low 90s.
Currently - The Keys reside within the western end of an Atlantic ridge. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridge will remain across South Florida through the overnight period. Expect overnight lows to settle in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the lower 70s. A ridge across South Florida will maintain light east to southeast breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Some degree of clearing may begin to encroach on the region late Friday, although the pace of any clearing may prove slow given the ongoing moisture flux off the warmer lake Huron waters. A few lines of showers have developed near the low and the cold front extending southwest from Port Huron down to Adrian and will exit to the east in the next hour or two. The rest of tonight will be cloudy with patches of light rain or drizzle as we remain under cyclonic flow under the western side of the upper level short wave trough with plenty of boundary layer moisture remaining under the low level inversion. A thermal trough will slide over the region Friday with 850mb temps dropping to around 8C.
748 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Upper level trough over the Great Lakes along with weak disturbances will provide considerable clouds late this week into the weekend.
755 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Aviation Mid level troughing as well as low level moist cyclonic flow and H8 thermal troughing will act to keep extensive cloud cover and isolated showers in place through Friday. As we begin the weekend, high pressure over Ontario will feed cooler and drier into the region. Comfortable conditions will prevail with highs in the lower to mid 70s and dewpoints in the 40s and 50s.
401 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (Issued 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023) Tonight through Friday Night: North winds gradually subside and turn slightly northeast overnight as high pressure builds into the upper Great Lakes region from the north. As the winds and waves decline tonight, the High Swim Risk for Racine and Kenosha counties downgrades to a Moderate Swim Risk. Clouds gradually clear out from west to east on Friday, allowing daytime highs to rise about 2-5 degrees warmer than today. Not expecting precipitation underneath the high pressure system, but a stray shower along the Lake Michigan shoreline cannot be ruled out.
906 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A wavy cold front exits this evening with scattered showers and storms ahead of it. Cooler for the weekend as unsettled weather continues courtesy of a lingering upper trough overhead. A cold front pushes east of the mountains, while a reinforcing cold front crosses from the northwest bringing a drier airmass to the area tonight. More comfortable temperatures expected Friday afternoon with highs ranging from the lower 80s across the lowlands, into the upper 60s highest elevations. * Temperatures will be cooler than normal. Cloud cover and precipitation should keep daytime temperatures cooler than normal over the weekend, with highs expected to range from mid 70s to around 80 for much of the CWA, and 60s to low 70s in the higher mountain elevations.
942 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Cooler temperatures and unsettled weather are expected to linger into the weekend. Lows will be slightly cooler than observed the past couple nights but still bottom out several degrees above normal.
The convection was aided by a short wave trough moving through the Pacific Northwest.
This extra cloud cover is going to make gettin frost difficult by keeping our temperatures warmer than they would if we cleared out. Have attempted to take a best guess at where we are most likely to get the clearing skies and cooler temperatures and went with the colder guidance. Where we are more likely to be cloudy I have gone warmer. Friday we should finally manage to clear out this cloud cover and allow some sunshine and warmer temperatures to develop.
655 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Currently have an upper ridge centered over southern NM/SW TX and spans across the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest. At the surface, lee troughing is in place with a stationary front across Northern TX. We are expecting an overall lull in activity for the Fri-Sat time frame as the upper ridge remains in place and the forecast area is under northwest flow aloft. There is good model agreement that by Sat night the southwest CONUS upper ridge will start to break down, allowing mean upper flow and preferred track for upper energy to sink south. This will finally pull down some Fall-like temperatures! Cold front looks to move through Sun night into Mon morning with some showers and storms also tied to the front.
744 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Cooler weather will continue for the foreseeable future. * Cooler, fall-like weather is expected through the foreseeable future.
632 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Tonight and Tomorrow: An upper-level low pressure system has been moving southeastward from KY/TN toward GA/SC today. Thunderstorms have been developing on the northern edge of the low-level ThetaE axis in southern AR, as well as in the better instability axis around southern MS/LA. Flow aloft is northwesterly, or parallel to the surface cold front boundary through AR/LA/central MS.