Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The warmer and more moist airmass increases chances for rain heading into tonight and continuing Friday.
The warmer air will be arriving during the late day with gusty SE winds. The warm front remains over the coastal waters of LA, but is making progress into SE TX with a little more Southerly component off the Gulf. The initial short wave axis is sweeping overhead now with better mixing down of the wind in the warmer air of late today and especially this evening. /24/ (Friday Night through Thursday) By Friday night, the aforementioned upper trough and cold front will likely be through the CWA, along with the heavier convection. However, with a parallel SW Flow remaining in place, along with an upper ridge in the Gulf, guidance is still suggesting the system will hang-up just east of the area across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase tonight ahead of a deep low pressure system.
110 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023 High pressure brings dry and milder weather through tonight. The start of meteorological winter will feature a low pressure system encroaching from the west overnight into Friday. A few spots along the ridgetops could see a brief period of wintry precip before changing over to all rain once surface temperatures rise into the mid to upper 30s. A low level jet noses in with this system, promoting breezier conditions along the higher terrain Friday afternoon.
Above that elevation, we'll see 4-10 inches or so, perhaps a touch higher across the highest of peaks. Opted to cover this time period with a Winter Weather Advisory for much of the region despite the less than impressive snow accumulations in many of the lower valleys. Temperatures tomorrow will be right around or below freezing regionwide so confidence is high for accumulations and impacts tomorrow.
(Rest of Today) After a chilly start this morning in the lower 30s, temperatures have rebounded back up into the mid 40s thanks to a combination of sunshine and southwesterly flow. Cloud cover is expected to increase later today ahead of a developing low pressure system along the western Gulf of Mexico.
As the aforementioned low pressure system ejects northeast across the MS River Valley, showers along the prefrontal trough will spread eastward, overspreading the forecast area just before sunrise.
(This afternoon through Friday night) There is a southern stream upper trough tracking across NM and W TX today while the next upper trough hits the West Coast. This new trough will move inland tonight passing across the Great Basin Friday. The upper trough pushed a Pacific front through the region today leaving a very gusty W wind in its wake.
Another system will move in Friday, with heavy snow in the mountains and snow changing to rain in the lower elevations.
108 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023 High pressure brings dry and milder weather through tonight. The start of meteorological winter will feature a low pressure system encroaching from the west overnight into Friday. A few spots along the ridgetops could see a brief period of wintry precip before changing over to all rain once surface temperatures rise into the mid to upper 30s. A low level jet noses in with this system, promoting breezier conditions along the higher terrain Friday afternoon. A low pressure system to the west will push a band of showers through the region on Friday.
116 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023 High pressure will remain in control of the weather today and tonight. A low pressure system and cold front will pass through Friday and Friday night.
The lower snow levels and persistent upslope along the Rim, resulted in the decision to lower the snow advisory for the Mogollon Rim and Whites down to 6500 feet.
531 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) There is a southern stream upper trough tracking across NM and W TX today while the next upper trough hits the West Coast. This new trough will move inland tonight passing across the Great Basin Friday. The upper trough pushed a Pacific front through the region today leaving a very gusty W wind in its wake.
However, most of our Four-State area remains much cooler in the 50s and 49 degrees in El Dorado for the coolest. It is still looking as though the warm front will just edge into play. The winds will slack gustiness after midnight, but still remain on the high side for fog formation, but not advection. We will trend cooler in time, but the 850/700mb surface will see a new low slide up along the slow moving frontal boundary bringing some additional showers of needed rainfall through the Parishes especially.
637 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023 A low pressure system moves in late tonight into Friday bringing cooler temperatures and widespread rain chances.
Thus, the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisories have been allowed to expire as scheduled. (This afternoon through Friday night) There is a southern stream upper trough tracking across NM and W TX today while the next upper trough hits the West Coast. This new trough will move inland tonight passing across the Great Basin Friday. The upper trough pushed a Pacific front through the region today leaving a very gusty W wind in its wake.
During the next 24 hours mid level troughieness will be moving over the region. This trough will be coming across in pieces, so we will see enhanced areas of snow affecting the area with each piece of energy coming across. Over the plains it will likely remain dry through the next 24 hours Temperatures will be running around 10 degrees below normal over the plains and about normal over the higher terrain. Key Messages: - Snow showers will continue to spread across the higher terrain this weekend.
Surface based instability is currently projected to increase as a warm front lifts northward, but uncertainty still exists as to how much instability will be available during the peak heating hours. Following the passage of the warm front, most locations should easily warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s by Friday afternoon. Breezy southerly winds can be expected as the pressure gradient ramps up ahead of the approaching slow-moving cold front to our northwest.
Upper level coupled jet support and moisture overrunning a warm front is expected to incite upward motion and precipitation by daybreak in eastern Ohio, spreading northeast throughout the morning. This will likely keep any light to moderate, consistent stratiform rain mentions limited tomorrow morning; the highest totals are forecast north of I-80. Throughout the afternoon, a surface warm front is expected to pass; rain chances will linger in a secondary area of enhanced ascent.
544 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Key Messages: - Warmer than normal high temperatures continue.
Lows tonight will likely be a balancing act between warm air advection in the boundary layer and evaporative cooling due to the falling precipitation into the very dry air below 850 mb (especially given the strong forcing shown ahead of the approaching pre-frontal trough axis in models to our NW). Surface observations and satellite imagery show this pre-frontal trough axis extending from eastern Missouri southwest along the Arkansas/Tennessee border.
648 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023 High pressure brings dry and milder weather through tonight. The start of meteorological winter will feature a low pressure system encroaching from the west overnight into Friday. A few spots along the ridgetops could see a brief period of wintry precip before changing over to all rain once surface temperatures rise into the mid to upper 30s. A low level jet noses in with this system, promoting breezier conditions along the higher terrain Friday afternoon.
Satellite loops show scattered clouds across central California this afternoon as an upper trough digs southeast over the state. Temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday with highs as much as 4 degrees above climatological normals for this time of the year. An onshore pressure gradient is increasing with the approach of the trough, causing winds to ramp up through the Kern County mountain passes this afternoon. The trough shifts east on Friday with a cool northwesterly flow aloft and drying conditions.
543 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase tonight ahead of a deep low pressure system.
Longwave troughing aloft continues to dominate the upper level pattern for interior NorCal today.
542 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 (This evening through Friday) Water vapor imagery shows the now closed 500 mb upper level low responsible for our showers and thunderstorms centered over northern New Mexico. This compact upper level low has turned out to posses fairly potent dynamic forcing. Clearing skies in the South Plains and the southwest Rolling Plains will be accompanied by a period of elevated westerly winds this afternoon at sustained speeds around 20-25 knots before a cold front moves through the forecast area this afternoon and evening. West Texas Mesonet station data shows the cold front sitting approximately along a line from Muleshoe to Memphis and will continue to push south this afternoon and evening resulting in overnight lows in the 20s and 30s, about 10 degrees cooler than last night.
527 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 (This afternoon through Friday Night) High pressure continues to push east out of our area and we are starting to see mid to high level clouds build in ahead of an approaching trough. Winds will let up this evening and we will see humidity increase as the upper level trough starts to lift out of TX. As the trough lifts we will see a low level jet increase becoming 50-70 knots at 850 mb.
(Today and tonight) Strong southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the southern Great Plains region today as an H3 jet streak remains essentially stationary along the leading edge of broad upper level troughing over most of the western CONUS. In general, the westerly downslope component to the low level flow combined with a very modest increase in layer thicknesses will allow for a slightly warmer day compared to yesterday across most of the region.
Even though the base of the upper trough is still roughly in eastern New Mexico and will work its way east/northeast over the area in the coming hours, its impact will be limited behind the Pacific Front currently moving through the Heartland and NW Hill Country. A weak secondary cold front is expected to move southeast through the area overnight tonight, shifting winds to the northwest. As such, highs will range from the low to mid 60s across the Big Country to the upper 60s to low 70s further south.
Rain and snow showers will continue across the area overnight,with the greatest accumulations over the higher terrain of NE Arizona, the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Current satellite imagery shows the broad, slow-moving trough now centered over the intermountain west, with several smaller embeddeed waves rotating through. The lower snow levels and persistent upslope along the Rim, resulted in the decision to lower the snow advisory for the Mogollon Rim and Whites down to 6500 feet.
1239 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023 High pressure brings dry and milder weather through tonight. The start of meteorological winter will feature a low pressure system encroaching from the west overnight into Friday. A few spots along the ridgetops could see a brief period of wintry precip before changing over to all rain once surface temperatures rise into the mid to upper 30s. A low level jet noses in with this system, promoting breezier conditions along the higher terrain Friday afternoon.
328 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023 A low pressure system was over southeast Kansas early this morning. Initial concerns for wet snow mixing into northern areas including far southwest Lower Michigan have subsided with a somewhat warmer boundary layer expected.
A warm front extends east-southeast into east Texas and into Louisiana with an occluding cold front located in the Texas Hill Country. CJC Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase tonight ahead of a deep low pressure system.
The weather pattern will remain unsettled through the weekend with warmer temperatures anticipated. 30 across the entire forecast area with the higher amounts on the northern and western edges. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today as a period of cold air advection will accompany the system.
953 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Key Messages: - Warmer than normal high temperatures continue.
Rest of forecast looked good, but temps could be warmer tonight with thick cloudcover in place.
1005 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023 High pressure brings dry and milder weather through tonight. The start of meteorological winter will feature a low pressure system encroaching from the west overnight into Friday. A few spots along the ridgetops could see a brief period of wintry precip before changing over to all rain once surface temperatures rise into the mid to upper 30s. A low level jet noses in with this system, promoting breezier conditions along the higher terrain Friday afternoon.
1014 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 (This evening through Friday) Water vapor imagery shows the now closed 500 mb upper level low responsible for our showers and thunderstorms centered over northern New Mexico. This compact upper level low has turned out to posses fairly potent dynamic forcing. Clearing skies in the South Plains and the southwest Rolling Plains will be accompanied by a period of elevated westerly winds this afternoon at sustained speeds around 20-25 knots before a cold front moves through the forecast area this afternoon and evening. West Texas Mesonet station data shows the cold front sitting approximately along a line from Muleshoe to Memphis and will continue to push south this afternoon and evening resulting in overnight lows in the 20s and 30s, about 10 degrees cooler than last night.
Widespread rain was lifting northeast out of the area early this morning as the upper level low transits the region. For tonight, look for low temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
1131 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Key Messages: - Warmer than normal high temperatures continue.
Due to the approaching frontal boundary and the tightening pressure gradient from the passing trough, gradient winds may also become gusty at times today and gust into the 15-25 mph range late this morning through the afternoon.
Areas under cloud cover have stayed in the 40s while clear areas further north are now in the low to mid 20s. Patchy radiational fog has developed in the colder areas further north and with temps below freezing some of that fog may freeze on surfaces resulting in slick spots this morning. These warmer temperatures will play a slight hand in limiting overall accumulating snow potential today. Impacts will be generally limited as surface temperatures near to above freezing curb actual accumulations to around 1 inch.
The weather pattern will remain unsettled through the weekend with warmer temperatures anticipated. Weakening low pressure will move slowly northeastward overnight, reaching central Missouri as dawn approaches. 30 across the entire forecast area with the higher amounts on the northern and western edges. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today as a period of cold air advection will accompany the system.
Near the surface, high pressure is edging eastward across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Below normal temperatures can be expected today as prevailing north-northeastlies support the cooler air mass across western Kansas with H85 temperatures holding just below 0C for much of the area. Look for highs only up into the mid/upper 30s(F) to the lower 40s(F) this afternoon.
Rain and snow showers will continue across the area overnight,with the greatest accumulations over the higher terrain of NE Arizona, the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Current satellite imagery shows the broad, slow-moving trough now centered over the intermountain west, with several smaller embedded waves rotating through. The lower snow levels and persistent upslope along the Rim, resulted in the decision to lower the snow advisory for the Mogollon Rim and Whites down to 6500 feet.
Temperatures are a couple degrees warmer than last night at this time and breezes are diminished. The forecast calls for lows in the lower to mid 70s, and the northeast winds which have resumed should hold for the next several hours. From synopsis, high pressure will slide east across the western North Atlantic over the next several days.
A series of upper troughs moving across the Central Plains will bring a couple of reinforcing cold fronts through the area.
522 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 (Today and tonight) Strong southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the southern Great Plains region today as an H3 jet streak remains essentially stationary along the leading edge of broad upper level troughing over most of the western CONUS. In general, the westerly downslope component to the low level flow combined with a very modest increase in layer thicknesses will allow for a slightly warmer day compared to yesterday across most of the region.
- Large swings in temperatures to be seen for the week as normal daytime temperatures for early December is in the lower 40s and morning lows in the teens. The combination of the H5 analysis and satellite show closed low over the Hudson Bay while ridging to the west and troughing across the southwest with leeside tough extending south along the front range.
The weather pattern will remain unsettled through the weekend with warmer temperatures anticipated. 30 across the entire forecast area with the higher amounts on the northern and western edges. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today as a period of cold air advection will accompany the system. We should expect a surge of warmer air on Saturday which will push our temperatures well above normal.
916 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023 Low pressure over Missouri this morning will move to the lower Ohio Valley tonight, but then will weaken as it moves north of our area through Saturday.
Slow warming of the airmass is noted but scattered cloud cover today and then more widespread high clouds Saturday will keep temps more in the low to mid 30s today and Saturday with overnight lows in the upper teens to low 20s.
Areas under cloud cover have stayed in the 40s while clear areas further north are now in the low to mid 20s. Patchy radiational fog has developed in the colder areas further north and with temps below freezing some of that fog may freeze on surfaces resulting in slick spots this morning. These warmer temperatures will play a slight hand in limiting overall accumulating snow potential today. Impacts will be generally limited as surface temperatures near to above freezing curb actual accumulations to around 1 inch. An additional 1 to 2 inches will be possible with the higher amounts near and north of M-20.
As this low continues northeastward this morning, its associated rain shield will move on a similar trajectory out of the CWA as dry air moves in, with the higher rain chances coming to an end across our eastern Illinois counties around 7am. However, there will remain a low chance (30%) for light rain and drizzle throughout the day, as forcing from a cold front moving through the area and weak forcing aloft will utilize low-level moisture lingering across the area.
411 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023 High pressure will continue to ridge across the area through the weekend as a frontal system stalls across the deep south today and tonight.
An approaching trough of low pressure towards the end of the next workweek will bring the return of unsettled weather. (Today and tonight) Cool and unsettled weather will persist today with mid/upper level troughing aloft. Temperatures will struggle to warm much beyond the lower 60s (upper 40s to lower 50s in the highest elevations). Breezy northerly winds are also expected especially near the coast and in the higher elevations. Tonight, warmer conditions are expected with lows generally in the 40s for much of the region.
High pressure will continue to ridge across the area through the weekend as a frontal system stalls across the deep south today and tonight.
Remnant showers are dissipating on radar this morning in the wake of an overnight cold frontal passage.
Area of high pressure centered in South Dakota is keeping northeast flow over Iowa early today with drier air working southwest toward the IA MO border where dewpoints have steadied off to the upper 20s. Temperatures there remain in the lower to mid 30s, but will be dropping once light precipitation begins.
448 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 (Today and tonight) A secondary weak cold front is making its way through our area early this morning, turning the winds more to the northwest behind it. Winds at mid and upper levels will be from the southwest, as a trough approaches from the west.
Near term model guidance still trending towards cooler temps this afternoon and evening as CAD remains in place over NE GA.
339 AM MST Fri Dec 1 2023 Today through Saturday: High pressure with zonal flow will maintain dry conditions and near to slightly above normal temperatures to start December.
653 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023 A low pressure system was over southeast Kansas early this morning. Initial concerns for wet snow mixing into northern areas including far southwest Lower Michigan have subsided with a somewhat warmer boundary layer expected.
The main weather event is the first trough moving over the region tonight. The southwest flow ahead of the trough will bring the best orographics to the eastern San Juan Mountains where the advisory is currently in effect. The heaviest snow will be ahead of the trough this afternoon and into the mid evening, with the snow becoming lighter later in the evening and overnight. Models have persistent with some light precipitation this evening over the Palmer Divide region as the trough passes over the region.
Warmer air starts to work its way into our area on Saturday, though this will mainly affect southwestern portions of our area.
(Today through Saturday) The mid-to-upper level ridge will continue to amplify today and the first half of the weekend, which will create increased moisture and warm air advection from the south in the process, but due to the pattern being dominated by the ridge, very limited showers are expected.
Sea fog has also been developing over the last couple of hours as dewpoints in the upper 60s hover over the cooler shelf waters. Otherwise for today, a weak cold front will stall across the region this afternoon. We will see winds shift out of the north ahead of this boundary as a prefrontal trough develops. Fog will clear out through the morning hours as secondary surge of high pressure pushes the front offshore.
NAM and the high-res ARW show some QPF between 12Z and 15Z. The low clouds are expected to erode slowly from west to east through the day, but may linger much of the day across the eastern part of the forecast area. The cold front is moving across the area (and the lingering clouds) will give us a cooler day today.
In terms of rainfall, undulations in moisture will round the western periphery of this ridge, leading to slight rain chances (10-20%) through the weekend.
551 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 * Some residual light precipitation(rain/snow mix) will be possible across central Kansas later this morning/afternoon, no accumulation expected * Possible fog for late tonight into Saturday morning due to recent rainfall and light easterly winds across southern Kansas * Cool below normal temperatures will continue on Saturday * Warmer temperatures will return to Kansas Tdy-Sun Current satellite water vapor imagery shows upper level system moving northeast towards Missouri early this morning which will cause the precipitation to quickly taper off over eastern Kansas. Daytime highs will be cooler than normal for today with low clouds eroding from west to east later in the day. The upper trough axis will remain over the central plains through the weekend with yet another embedded upper wave moving across the region on Saturday.
Widespread rain was lifting northeast out of the area early this morning as the upper level low transits the region. For tonight, look for low temperatures in the low to mid 30s. A longwave trough axis will be centered across the Plains Saturday afternoon before shifting east throughout the evening and overnight hours.