Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1026 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 A weak cold front over the area will shift slightly westward later this evening, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected into tonight, with the greatest coverage near the eastern Midlands.
Development has been slow, once again due to a lack of large scale forcing, but further development is anticipated through the evening hours focused around the higher terrain. The stalled, weak trough continues to hang out off the coast late into the week with yet another round of similar but slightly cooler weather Thursday as the trough begins to deepen.
The deepening frontal system will move through early Thursday with the upper level trough swinging the cold front through the region Thursday morning. The good thing is that the highest QPF will be in the Northwest of the region and through northern lower Michigan. There are good dynamics and decent shear associated with the incoming trough, however there is some lacking CAPE and the best ML and DCAPE are Thursday afternoon. So with cooler overnight temps and moving into a stable environment there will be some difficulty for convection with the first line.
The Mid-South is currently experiencing calm winds, clear skies, and a high pressure system centered over us for tonight.
616 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Fair weather is expected this evening through tonight under the influence of high pressure along the Ohio Valley. A cold front will sweep across central Illinois Thursday morning and afternoon. Expect highs in the lower to mid 80s.
Overnight an upper trough and cold front approach from the northwest. Very little moisture is associated with this trough/front and the chances of showers are very low. Though clouds associated with the upper trough may prevent fog formation.
1132 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) The upper level trough that brought most recent cold front to the region has slowed its eastward progression. As another stronger trough dives south out of Canada across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Thursday, it'll pickup and absorb the trough currently located over the SE CONUS.
NBM output shows a fairly homogeneous minimum temperature forecast in the low to mid 60s with only couple of degrees spread anywhere in the forecast area by Friday morning. Highs will be significantly warmer on Friday, especially in the west where highs should easily and early crack 100 degrees F southwest of Garden City.
Discussion: A trough axis extending from northeastern CONUS into portions of the southeast has allowed for scattered to broken low-level clouds among afternoon mixing, all while weak northerly flow advects cooler and drier air into the region in a post frontal air-mass. Below normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected to continue into Thursday as more amplified troughing digs into the Great Lakes region and restricts any H5 height rises.
The deepening frontal system will move through early Thursday with the upper level trough swinging the cold front through the region Thursday morning. The good thing is that the highest QPF will be in the Northwest of the region and through northern lower Michigan. There are good dynamics and decent shear associated with the incoming trough, however there is some lacking CAPE and the best ML and DCAPE are Thursday afternoon. So with cooler overnight temps and moving into a stable environment there will be some difficulty for convection with the first line. A brief shot of cool air sweeps in on Friday on the heels of northwest winds behind Thursday's cold front, holding highs in the 70s despite sunny skies.
With weak surface winds shifting more southeast and south by the end of the day, temperatures will be similar to today, maybe a degree or two warmer in most locations. Mid-range solutions from the GFS and ECMWF remain on track for a sizable H500 ridge setting up over the central CONUS, and both continue to bring Tropical Storm Hilary north along the Baja toward the Southern California coast by the end of the weekend.
While little in the way of fog has yet to form, light winds coupled with dew pts in the lower/mid 60s should provide for some favorable conditions for some patchy fog heading into the daytime period. Otherwise, high pressure remains layered from the mid Atlantic states into the SE region today, translating into dry/quiet wx conditions. This looks to result in afternoon temps remaining slightly below normal, with highs later today mainly in the lower/mid 80s, under mostly sunny skies.
A lingering, weak mid/upper level trough axis was over the central and southern Appalachians this afternoon. Increased sun and warm air advection will result in warmer temps back into the 80s on Thursday. The next mix/upper level trough (currently over Ontario and the northern Plains) will drop southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley on Thursday night, supporting another cold front to move through our area.
Meanwhile associated cold front is also making good progress southeast and was already into northwest Minnesota as of 18z. Thursday - Friday: Cooler with some atmospheric smoke Once wave clears region and we return to a northwest flow, will need to track advection of western wildfire smoke.
258 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 High pressure today. A cold front tonight. Thereafter, high pressure dominates into the new week, with a warming trend starting this weekend. A high pressure system will then provide dry weather with plenty of sunshine. A cold front will push through the area Thursday night. High pressure builds in the wake of a cold front, resulting in drier weather and clearing skies by mid day Friday. High pressure then remains in control at the surface while an upper ridge expands into the Ohio Valley from the central US this weekend. Temperatures start out cooler than normal on Friday, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and 60s to low 70s for the mountains.
Mid level heights will continue to increase today as the upper ridge builds over the area once again.
a backdoor cold front moves in to the area late this evening with winds from the north-northeast at speeds of 5 to 10 mph, maybe closer to 15 mph in spots. high pressure slides southeast, allowing surface winds to veer to the east and southeast across the area during the day. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 85 to 90 degree range with low temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. 500mb flow indicates a return to a monsoonal moisture pattern with high pressure over northern Texas and low pressure off the southwest coast of California. Heat index values are currently forecast to be in the lower to upper 90s.
(Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level ridge positioned over the Four Corners region slowly drifting eastward. By this afternoon, the upper level ridge is expected to become more centered overhead of the FA with increased thickness values noted over the region. An upper level trough over the upper Midwest will continue eastward and swing a weak cold front through the southeastern TX Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains this evening where it will stall.
The cold front continues to make progress across the CWA, perhaps an hour or so quicker than the HRRR had showed earlier today. Cooler and drier air is filtering into the CWA as the front makes its way through the eastern CWA. By Thursday night, the high shifts east and warm air advection with southerly winds quickly ensues, signaling the quick warm up anticipated for Friday. An upper ridge initially will be centered across portions of the Southern Plains when this period begins on Friday morning. The ridge axis will be positioned over parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday leading to a pretty hot day CWA wide, but especially across portions of our Missouri Valley zones where triple digit high temps look probable.
(Today through Friday) With high pressure in control, we are in a fairly quiet pattern for the short term. The cooler temperatures this morning is allowing fog to develop mainly in the water areas and spreading out.
245 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Showers are possible east of the Illinois River today into early afternoon as a cold front sweeps through central and southeastern Illinois.
A cold front has pushed through the region bringing in strong post frontal winds across the state. A strong pressure gradient near the surface and pressure rises behind the cold front continues to also support the strong winds. High temperatures tomorrow will be slightly warmer across the west a an upper level ridge builds across the Northern Rockies. An upper level ridge will continue to progress eastward centering over the Central Plains Friday. Thus, supporting a strong low level thermal ridge spanning across western North Dakota down to Texas. Therefore, Friday's temperatures are forecast to climb in to the upper 80s out east and the lower 100s west where the low level thermal ridge is located. A short wave trough will dig across the Northern Plains Friday evening bring forth a chance for thunderstorm out west.
Tonight that high will move off to the east while a low and warm front push near the west, tightening the pressure gradient force over ND. Temperatures Friday will be very warm, especially in the southwest where the thermal ridge will be centered.
This low level moisture has allowed for cumulus to develop across the eastern portions of the area this afternoon. High pressure has moved off to the east and winds have turned southerly. The NBM has a small spread in high temp forecasts through the weekend which leads to high confidence that temps will reach the lower to middle 90s.
Key Messages: * A cold front will cross the local area tonight bringing seasonably cool temperatures and lower dewpoints to the region for Thursday. which are associated with a rapidly approaching cold front expected to cross the local area late tonight. Along with the cooler temperatures will be lower dewpoints, which are expected to run generally in the lower to middle 50s Thursday afternoon. By Friday, an upper level ridge of high pressure will shift east across the local area and strengthen over the upcoming weekend.
(Today and tonight) High pressure will continue to strengthen driving temperatures even higher across the region. Abilene is forecast to break the record high temperature (record is 106 degrees) as the high is forecast to be 109 degrees.
1218 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (Rest of Tonight) There is a ridge of high pressure at the surface situated from NY SWWD across much of E Conus to N LA, including C AL. Most sites should go into the lower to mid 60s except for a few upper 60s in the far SE. 08 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Thursday) 1000-500mb mean RH has fallen to around 30% in the wake of the cold front which is now situated generally east to west along the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will begin to gradually rise again by the end of the week, but for now, we'll gratefully accept dewpoints in the low/mid 60s, highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s with mostly sunny skies, and overnight lows in the 60s.
North to northwest flow on back side of upper trough is brining CAA over the region, with deeper dry/stable air mass in place.
255 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 A cold front will cross the area early Friday, bringing a chance of showers to the mountains. High pressure and several days of dry weather follow into the weekend. Starting this morning with fog in the valleys west of the Blue Ridge. A cold front crossing east to west over the Ohio Valley today will produce low level convergence over the mountains between 06Z/2AM and 12Z/8AM. Not as much spread in temperatures between valleys and ridges as the past couple of mornings. Lower humidity and mostly dry conditions are expected to A progressive upper trough will swing south into the Great Lakes with a trailing front extending south. Strong high pressure builds in behind the front bringing in another cooler shot of fall-like air into the region for the weekend.
High pressure remains to the south with the stalled boundary to the north through Friday keeping SW flow in place. High pressure then builds north for the weekend as an upper inverted trough moves over the state. E/SE flow will establish, with the trough allowing for continued higher rain chances. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for this afternoon with the higher rain chances and clouds in place. High pressure to the south and a stalled boundary to the north will keep a SW/W flow in place across the waters into the weekend. High pressure then lifts north over the weekend turning winds to the E, but with an upper inverted trough moving over the state keeping increased rain chances in place.
1218 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (The rest of tonight) High pressure at the surface will continue to slide east overnight with light south winds at most locations across eastern Oklahoma. Light winds along with slightly higher dewpoints will result in overnight low temps a little warmer than those observed last night.
(Rest of Tonight) There is a ridge of high pressure at the surface situated from NY SWWD across much of E Conus to N LA, including C AL. Most sites should go into the lower to mid 60s except for a few upper 60s in the far SE. 08 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Thursday) 1000-500mb mean RH has fallen to around 30% in the wake of the cold front which is now situated generally east to west along the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will begin to gradually rise again by the end of the week, but for now, we'll gratefully accept dewpoints in the low/mid 60s, highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s with mostly sunny skies, and overnight lows in the 60s.
Drier air pushes into the area from the west this afternoon as an upper trough moves through. A weak upper level trough shifts eastward over the forecast area on Thursday as a more potent trough digs into the Great Lakes region. Highs will be near normal in the low to mid 90s with lows overnight in the upper 60s to low 70s. Global ensembles favor a broad upper ridge building across the central CONUS late this week and over the weekend. We will generally remain along the eastern flank of the ridge during the period.
1241 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Mid/upper-level ridging continues to drift eastward over the southern Rocky Mountains this afternoon with subsident air present over the TX PH and South Plains. The contribution of adiabatic compression from the southwesterly breeze will result in a warm night with temperatures in the lower 70s across most of the Caprock while running a few degrees warmer in the Rolling Plains. The weakening cold front will move through the CWA by tomorrow afternoon, and with the lee cyclone nearby, winds will veer throughout the course of the day. Increasing geopotential heights from the core of the ridge moving overhead, in addition to very deep mixing in the boundary-layer (i.
254 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 [Key Messages] 1) Pleasant day ahead with seasonable temps and breezy northwest winds [Discussion] Early this morning, surface analysis depicted a cold front stretching from northwest Wisconsin southwestward into southern Nebraska. Another round of high pressure will follow behind the front for tonight, with winds subsiding by sunset. Clear skies, light winds and the high will help lows drop into the low to mid 50s. For Friday, look for a beautiful day as high pressure settles into the area. Temperatures and humidity levels will be comfortable, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s.
(Today through Friday night) A weak cold front currently in northern Kansas is on the way this morning, but don't expect much relief from the heat, especially in the southern Texas Panhandle. High pressure is still large and in charge, but a prominent dip in the jet stream to our north will allow the cold front to make its way through most of the area before stalling out. While the northern Panhandles will see temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday, most of the area will still see highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. Stop me if you've heard this one before, but high pressure refuses to budge from the southern Plains on Friday, with daytime highs near or above the century mark returning to the whole area.
425 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over Kentucky and this has helped to clear the skies. Otherwise, temperatures are showing a small amount of terrain difference - ranging from the mid 60s on the ridges to the upper 50s in the most sheltered valleys. They all depict a deep trough settling through the Great Lakes today driving height falls and some mid level energy through northern Kentucky as it passes. It also helps keep the heat ridge to the west for another day or so, but heights do rise over eastern Kentucky in its wake Friday.
1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) There isn't very much to talk about in the short term as the upper ridge builds and thickness increases today and tomorrow.
131 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 High pressure today. A cold front tonight. Thereafter, high pressure dominates into the new week, with a warming trend starting this weekend. A high pressure system will then provide dry weather with plenty of sunshine. A cold front will push through the area Thursday night.
1211 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (This evening through Friday) High pressure will continue to control the weather pattern through all of the short term promoting calm and dry conditions. Forecast high temperatures will remain comfortable through tonight before cooler and drier conditions get replaced by hot and humid conditions beginning Thursday afternoon.
208 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 The main point of focus in the short term period of the forecast will be the passage of a moisture-starved cold front this afternoon into tonight. Ahead of the front, southerly return flow from high pressure translating to our east will allow high temperatures to warm into the middle to upper 80s across southeast MO, and the lower to middle 80s elsewhere across the forecast area. Following the passage of the cold front, low temperatures will dip back to refreshing levels in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Tomorrow looks like a similar set up with an upper level high over TX funneling dry air in from the west.
Otherwise, hotter Thursday with highs of 105 to 110, as high pressure aloft intensifies over the region.
Temperatures are still quite toasty with temperatures in the low to mid 90s across much of the area. Cooler temperatures are filtering into northwestern SD with stations showing temperatures in the low 80s. After a slightly cooler day on Thursday, trof digs into the eastern CONUS and amplifies the upper ridge over the central US - translating to hot and mostly dry conditions over the region. Ridge slides off to the east and stalls bringing upper level southwesterly flow over the region. This will bring some more chances for showers and storms as weak ridge riders cross the region. Whether or not we see storms or if they'll pass to our north and west will depend largely on where the ridge stalls out.
Temps will warm to average ahead of a cold front passing through the area on Thursday before briefly cooling to below average on Friday.
Upper level ridging will allow for dry weather to continue for the coming days. As the ridge intensifies, heat and humidity will return and heat headlines are likely to make their return this weekend.
132 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 A cold front will linger over the region into Thursday.
An upper-level trough passes well to our north today - too far away to have an impact here outside of some additional cloud cover. By Friday, a strong high pressure system begins to build over the Great Plains with its center over OK.
(Today and tonight) A cold front/wind shift is currently located across far southern Nebraska/northwest Kansas. Some guidance suggest the wind shift will make it farther south, but with a building ridge over the southern Plains will keep it around I-40.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected late Thursday into Friday morning, followed by breezy and cooler conditions to end the week.
An upper level disturbance will traverse the northern plains tonight, helping to push a cold front through southwestern Kansas Thursday morning. This will result in slightly cooler readings across southwestern Kansas Thursday afternoon compared to today. This will keep temperatures from soaring across central and parts of southwest Kansas, but will also result in high moisture content of the lower troposphere, leading to heat indices at or above 100 from Dodge City northeast to Hays. Upper level ridging is advertised by the models and their respective ensembles through 23 August.
For today through Friday, upper ridge builds across the Northern Plains as deep upper trough slides through the Great Lakes.
312 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023 High amplitude ridge covers much of the Western U. with low pressure well off the central CA coast. Meanwhile upper trof over the upper Midwest and Great lakes has resulted in a wee little frontal boundary which is just moving southward into the Denver area now. This will create some slight cooling over the plains as the thermal ridge shifts slightly westward over western Colorado. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler but still in the lower to mid 90s across lower elevations. The slightly cooler low levels will keep the airmass mostly capped over the plains through much of the day. The center of the upper ridge is progged to be over the Texas Panhandle at 12Z Friday morning.
Deep troughing will remain in place over the area with mostly northwesterly flow a loft.
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over Kentucky and this has helped to clear the skies. Otherwise, temperatures are showing a small amount of terrain difference - ranging from the mid 60s on the ridges to the upper 50s in the most sheltered valleys. They all depict a deep trough settling through the Great Lakes today driving height falls and some mid level energy through northern Kentucky as it passes. It also helps keep the heat ridge to the west for another day or so, but heights do rise over eastern Kentucky in its wake Friday.
612 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front/wind shift is currently located across far southern Nebraska/northwest Kansas. Some guidance suggest the wind shift will make it farther south, but with a building ridge over the southern Plains will keep it around I-40.
532 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible east of the Illinois River today into early afternoon, as a cold front sweeps through central and southeastern Illinois.
415 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (Issued 415 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023) Today and Tonight: A low pressure moving east through Ontario has swung a NE to SW oriented cold front into the region, and showers and thunderstorms have recently fired along it. Winds subside and daytime cumulus clear out Thursday night as a high pressure system around 1017mb builds into the region from the southwest.
648 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 A cold front will cross the area early Friday, bringing a chance of showers to the mountains. High pressure and several days of dry weather follow into the weekend. Starting this morning with fog in the valleys west of the Blue Ridge. A cold front crossing east to west over the Ohio Valley today will produce low level convergence over the mountains between 06Z/2AM and 12Z/8AM. Not as much spread in temperatures between valleys and ridges as the past couple of mornings. Lower humidity and mostly dry conditions are expected to A progressive upper trough will swing south into the Great Lakes with a trailing front extending south. Strong high pressure builds in behind the front bringing in another cooler shot of fall-like air into the region for the weekend.
641 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Key messages: 1) A cold front will move through the area today.