Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ongoing frost advisory seems to be in good shape to start the morning, with temps near or just above freezing in the advisory area as the window is closing on radiational cooling to the west. Long-awaited moderation in temps will happen this afternoon as the low-level thermal trof lifts out.
341 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Today and Tonight: A broad upper-level longwave trough remains in place over much of the CONUS today, with a low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes and another more compact low sliding southeastward from Idaho toward New Mexico today into tonight. Rain chances will begin to increase again late tonight into Wednesday morning as the more substantial low pressure system to our west begins to affect the region.
Temperatures will continue to increase through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds across the region.
Finally, the upper low drops to the Elkhart region overnight Tuesday, bringing the wrap around aspect of the synoptic system for Wednesday, again increasing the overall rain totals to well above 2 inches for perhaps a large portion of the DDC forecast area.
and Wednesday Jet energy rotating around the upper low to our north will move across the region during the afternoon and evening hours, while a weak back door cold front drops south across Northeast Wisconsin. Wednesday should be sunny and milder, though still 5 to 10 degrees cooler than usual for this time of the year.
Scattered showers will dissipate tonight as a upper level ridge builds offshore. The upper level ridge will continue to build into midweek and into the weekend for a period of drier and warmer weather.
The trough will drift east into Phillips and Petroleum counties this afternoon. Surface convergence along this trough will allow for a chance of rain showers possibly a thunderstorm this afternoon mainly in Phillips and Petroleum Counties this afternoon.
Will highlight the low RH in the FWF. Some weak short wave energy will approach later tonight, and the NAM shows weak forcing along a developing convergent zone and enough moisture moving in as the low level flow turns more southerly for showers to move into southern areas late tonight.
Through midnight tonight, the low will continue to put light precipitation in the eastern highlands the full length of the WY-ID border.
(Today) An upper level blocking pattern (Rex-style: a high north of a low) was in place over eastern Canada, which was helping to keep lower heights over the Great Lakes. These lower heights have brought a cooler than normal trend temperature wise for much of the eastern lower-48. 3 AM temperatures across the region for the most part were in the low/mid 40s with light winds. Given we have a few hours before daybreak, could not rule out some patchy frost in those normally cooler spots.
353 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Weak low pressure and cold front will traverse the Ohio Valley today, providing scattered precipitation. Cool high pressure will bring dry conditions back on Wednesday.
1230 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 (Rest of Tonight) Except for some mid/high clouds developing, only minor changes were made to the forecast for the rest of tonight with surface ridging across E Conus. Clouds will decrease throughout the day with sunshine becoming more prominent area-wide by the afternoon, but temperatures will be seasonably cool due to a large area of high pressure moving east over the Ohio Valley which is providing northeasterly surface winds across Central Alabama. There will be a mix of sun with some high clouds tomorrow, but we'll have one more day stabilized by the region of high pressure over the Ohio Valley with westerly flow aloft. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer, but still pleasant with highs ranging from the upper 60s north to near 80 southeast.
1257 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 A trof will slowly cross the region through mid week.
Lows will mainly be in the low to mid 50s. On Wednesday dynamics will be very limited so rain which develops will likely be light in nature with the highest pops in the CSRA and southern Midlands. With the increasing clouds afternoon high temperatures will be a bit cooler than normal, low to mid 70s on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s.
Cyclonic flow aloft continues to be a mainstay today with the upper level low weakening and churning over Michigan. Out ahead of this system will be warm air advection as it's associated warm front pivots across the Northern Plains. There is some cooler air across the Arrowhead that may lead to a rain snow mix. But with the warmer surface temps in place we are not expecting snow accumulations. Cluster analysis still highlights the anomalous high heights over Quebec and the strengthening ridge over the eastern Pacific.
KEY MESSAGES: - More sun and slightly warmer each day through Wednesday.
343 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 --Snow and Rain Mix today-- Another shot of winter is upon us as a large upper level low will move through the northern Great Lakes today. The upper level low will swing a trough through the region this morning which will increase instability.
358 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 A nearly stationary upper level low pressure remains over the region today and Wednesday, bringing chilly conditions and scattered showers. Brief high pressure and drier conditions builds in towards the end of the week, but another upper level disturbance will bring showers back into the region this weekend. Upper level low will keep its grip over the region through the period. 330 AM Update: The upper level low finally exits the area Wednesday night as a ridge starts to build in. With light winds and high pressure moving overhead, radiational cooling will allow for seasonably chilly temperatures, with lows expected to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
With a long wave trough remaining over eastern Canada and New England midweek, a fairly potent short wave trough embedded into the northwest flow will sink southeast to northern MN Wednesday night. That short wave will be absorbed by the larger trough to the east as another trough dives south into the Plains late week. Meridional flow will result with a large ridge building over the west and a deep trough over the central and eastern U.
The low to our west will bring rain chances into the area starting late Wednesday.
By Tuesday night, clouds will be on the increase as an approaching upper level low setting up over the Rockies begins tracking east. (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) By Wednesday night, the upper level low will be situated over the Great Plains.
Dry and much warmer weather is forecast late in the week and into the weekend, with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. However, the main upper low is still forecast to dive southeastward near the four corners (Cortez/Durango CO area) Tuesday afternoon. This will bring windy conditions in eastern Arizona, but will also push a cold front southward through the region. This activity will persist but drift east this afternoon and evening with the trough as instability remains elevated with the daytime heating. That wind will pick up once again tomorrow and with strong PGF thanks to the trough passing so close around the 4 corners. Starting Wednesday, ridging builds back into the region. Southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph look to continue overnight in the High Country with good humidity recovery expected.
However, even though a warm front wl rmn to the south of the state, portions of Srn AR may see the mercury climb into the lower 70s Wed aftn. By Wed night, a more sig/compact upper low wl be moving into the Srn Plains States.
The jet will maintain its position over the next 24 hours as an upper level low over the Pacific Northwest moves into the central Rocky Mountains. Instability associated with both the jet and low pressure system will cause isolated to widely scattered showers and storms to form in the short term mainly in the northern and far eastern Permian Basin. A cold front is expected Wednesday, reaching the northern Permian Basin in the afternoon and pushing south through the evening and overnight.
08Z water vapor imagery showed an upper low digging south southeast over the Great Basin as the upper low that had been sat over the Upper Midwest moves east over the Great Lakes. Surface obs showed high pressure over the OH river valley ridging west into the Ozarks. This has shunted moisture return to the west through the high plains. Also with the forecast area on the northeast side of the system, low level flow is progged to back to a more easterly direction with source parcels coming from the relatively dry high pressure system over the Ozarks.
313 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 High pressure will be overhead today, followed by a series of upper level disturbances that will pass across the region for the second half of the week.
200 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 High pressure slowly returns to the mid-Atlantic region from this evening into Tuesday. Have started to see mid level cloud cover thicken across the NW corner of the area (and some virga on radar) as a result of a weak trough moving through the area. Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s across the SE to the mid to upper 30s across the NW. Cooler Mon. A weak cold front is dropping S across the region as of 06z. Meanwhile, 1025mb high pressure is centered NW of the area over the Ohio Valley. VFR conditions under SCT to occasionally BKN high clouds are expected to prevail today into tonight as high pressure spreads across the region.
Temps tonight will be warmer due to increased cloud cover. Better chances for precip come Tue night and mainly Wed as an upper level closed low to the west slowly approaches the state. looks to be elevated in nature as the SFC warm front will be south of AR. but with little to no NRLY movement in the warm front.
1017 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2023 Upper air models show a closed Low over the WA/OR region with upper troughing over the Great Lakes region, and a mild ridge in between on the lee side of the rockies. Trough associated with the upper low slides eastward tonight and overnight, as the low swings down into the southern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. The higher elevations Black Hills may see some 1 to 3 inch snowfall amounts through Tuesday.
That would increase the potential for below freezing temperatures.
330 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Weak high pressure remains situated across the CWA this morning.
340 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 (Issued 340 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023) Today through Wednesday: This morning a combination of 700 mb warm air advection, 925 to 700 mb frontogenesis, and a vorticity maximum within the upper level trough are sustaining rain shower activity mainly over the southern half of the forecast area. As the trough axis clears around 10 am, rain should taper off along with some breaks in cloud cover. Clouds should clear out tonight into Wednesday morning as high pressure moves into the area with light and variable winds. Wednesday will be a little warmer than today with highs in the low 50s across much of the area and 40s closer to Lake Michigan.
Currently the upper low is across far northern Utah while the lead advance wave will be lifting northeast across the plains this morning. The forecast area should still be under the influence of the upper level low pressure area early on Wednesday. Models have the upper low moving eastward just south of the Colorado border Wednesday morning into early afternoon with upper ridging bulging in from the west by late in the day.
335 AM MDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Water vapor imagery shows an upper low across northern Utah, sliding southeast toward Colorado. Little to no accumulation is expected, especially if temps remain above freezing.
Upper low remains parked over the region, with short waves rotating around it. Some of the bands of snow have been fairly robust, but little to no impacts are being observed with sfc temps above freezing, and the late April sun angle helping keep pavement temps up. This leads to fairly high confidence we will see freezing temperatures over all of the area. --Snow and Rain Mix today-- Another shot of winter is upon us as a large upper level low will move through the northern Great Lakes today. The upper level low will swing a trough through the region this morning which will increase instability.
632 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Today and Tonight: A broad upper-level longwave trough remains in place over much of the CONUS today, with a low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes and another more compact low sliding southeastward from Idaho toward New Mexico today into tonight. Rain chances will begin to increase again late tonight into Wednesday morning as the more substantial low pressure system to our west begins to affect the region.
Activity should remain light as warm front and deeper moisture stays over the coastal waters.
319 AM MDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Upper level low over SE Idaho early this morning will take a more southerly track today into UT/CO, meaning less precipitation today compared to previous forecasts and a quicker end to precipitation in general. With less precipitation and cloud cover expect temperatures to be a bit warmer as well.
(Today through Wednesday) Weak high pressure remains situated across the CWA this morning.
649 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 A nearly stationary upper level low pressure remains over the region today and Wednesday, bringing chilly conditions and scattered showers. Brief high pressure and drier conditions builds in towards the end of the week, but another upper level disturbance will bring showers back into the region this weekend. Upper level low will keep its grip over the region through the period. 330 AM Update: The upper level low finally exits the area Wednesday night as a ridge starts to build in. With light winds and high pressure moving overhead, radiational cooling will allow for seasonably chilly temperatures, with lows expected to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
929 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 A nearly stationary upper level low pressure remains over the region today and Wednesday, bringing chilly conditions and scattered showers. Brief high pressure and drier conditions builds in towards the end of the week, but another upper level disturbance will bring showers back into the region this weekend. Upper level low will keep its grip over the region through the period. 330 AM Update: The upper level low finally exits the area Wednesday night as a ridge starts to build in. With light winds and high pressure moving overhead, radiational cooling will allow for seasonably chilly temperatures, with lows expected to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Temperatures across out eastern counties will be cooler due to cloud cover hanging around for most of the afternoon.
With cooler temperatures aloft, large hail will be a primary concern, in addition to a threat of gusty to locally damaging winds.
Strengthening high pressure aloft along the West Coast will bring a warming trend for Wednesday into the weekend with the marine layer becoming shallower.
415 AM MDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Water vapor imagery shows an upper low across northern Utah, sliding southeast toward Colorado. Little to no accumulation is expected, especially if temps remain above freezing.
930 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 High pressure will be overhead today, followed by a series of upper level disturbances that will pass across the region for the second half of the week.
1003 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Weak low pressure and cold front will traverse the Ohio Valley today, providing scattered precipitation. Cool high pressure will bring dry conditions back on Wednesday.
Any precipitation will hold off until after 00z this evening as the light returns on radar as virga due to the high cloud bases and drier air near the surface.
A significant warming trend will occur Tuesday through the weekend as high pressure builds, taking afternoon highs well above normal.
336 AM MDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Water vapor imagery shows an upper low across northern Utah, sliding southeast toward Colorado. Little to no accumulation is expected, especially if temps remain above freezing.
632 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 (Today) An upper level blocking pattern (Rex-style: a high north of a low) was in place over eastern Canada, which was helping to keep lower heights over the Great Lakes. These lower heights have brought a cooler than normal trend temperature wise for much of the eastern lower-48. 3 AM temperatures across the region for the most part were in the low/mid 40s with light winds. Given we have a few hours before daybreak, could not rule out some patchy frost in those normally cooler spots.
Many Valley locations will reach the low 90s beginning mid-week. Satellite imagery shows some thin high clouds continuing to spill through the eastern Pacific ridge into NorCal, otherwise skies remain mostly clear. Warmer temperatures will return today as the eastern Pacific ridge edges closer and offshore flow develops. Upper-level ridge over the eastern Pacific will amplify and dominate the West Coast's weather for the second half of the week.
FNT and MBS are farther removed so will leave out precipitation at this time but a trough axis dropping through northern MI this evening may bring a couple hours of rain to those sites closer to 00Z. Will continue to hedge toward lower stratus than fog but the southward moving trough axis should improve that through the night. Area of strato-cu primarily centered on the I-69 to M-59 corridors has held temperatures up a bit early this morning, but clearing elsewhere has led to temperatures to freezing or below. This will lead to the area flirting with freezing temperatures once again tonight.
Ridging will begin to build into the area Tuesday.
646 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 High pressure will be overhead today, followed by a series of upper level disturbances that will pass across the region for the second half of the week.
639 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Weak low pressure and cold front will traverse the Ohio Valley today, providing scattered precipitation. Cool high pressure will bring dry conditions back on Wednesday.
Water vapor imagery highlights broadly cyclonic flow across the CONUS composed of three nodes: a closed low over the Great Lakes, a short wave nearing the Rio Grande Valley, and a cyclone over the Intermountain West. Portions of the Lower Keys had brief rainfall this morning, but it has been more or less rain-free for many island communities.
755 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Aviation --Snow and Rain Mix today-- Another shot of winter is upon us as a large upper level low will move through the northern Great Lakes today. The upper level low will swing a trough through the region this morning which will increase instability.
834 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 (Issued 834 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023) Clouds will stick around into this afternoon with a slow moving trough overhead. DDV (Issued 340 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023) Today through Wednesday: This morning a combination of 700 mb warm air advection, 925 to 700 mb frontogenesis, and a vorticity maximum within the upper level trough are sustaining rain shower activity mainly over the southern half of the forecast area. As the trough axis clears around 10 am, rain should taper off along with some breaks in cloud cover. Clouds should clear out tonight into Wednesday morning as high pressure moves into the area with light and variable winds. Wednesday will be a little warmer than today with highs in the low 50s across much of the area and 40s closer to Lake Michigan.
As we head through this evening, a mid level short wave trough will approach from the west. This uptick in moisture will keep lows warmer overnight across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, mainly in the mid 50s w/a few 40s across the western high terrain. On Wednesday, a 500 hPa short wave trough will dive through the Four- Corners region and eject into the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front will advance swd into the Permian Basin and SE New Mexico after 21Z, ushering in cooler temperatures and dry air. Winds will increase along the leading edge of the cold front with gusts over 30 mph expected.
Dry conditions with a steady warming trend will continue through the weekend as a deep ridge builds into the region.
At the surface, high pressure will drop over Minnesota tonight, while an elongated area of low pressure slides from the Rockies to the far western Dakotas. Lows Wednesday night will range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s.
1210 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 A trof will slowly cross the region through mid week.
500mb flow remains nearly zonal with cooler temperatures between -11 and -13 C.
148 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Weak low pressure and cold front will traverse the Ohio Valley today, providing scattered precipitation. Cool high pressure will bring dry conditions back on Wednesday.
1105 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 A trof will slowly cross the region through mid week.
An upper low will move from southwestern Colorado to northeast New Mexico tonight. The aforementioned upper low will move southeast across the Texas Panhandle on Wednesday. A cold front will push south across the Big Country in the late afternoon and early evening, overtaking the dryline. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the warm sector in the afternoon and early evening, east of the dryline and south of the approaching cold front.
General low- level troughing remains in place, as a surface stationary front remains entrenched across the Florida Peninsula. However, the mid- level trough has all but washed out, and the aforementioned drier air working across the Florida Keys will likely serve as breaks on convective development.
212 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 High pressure will be overhead today, followed by a series of upper level disturbances that will pass across the region for the second half of the week.
Some upper divergence was noted near the SE MT/NE WY border on mesoanalysis and moisture was wrapping around the low over WY.
149 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Broad upper troughing across the Great Lakes will maintain unseasonably cool weather with periodic showers through mid week before the next low pressure system creates widespread rain chances to end the week. Passing of the trough axis early Wednesday morning and its associated mid-level frontogenesis will offer highest prob for precipitation, favoring NW PA. Excessive cloud cover will slow nocturnal cooling and, along with potential rainfall, limit potential development of frost (let alone freezing temperature).
/EC/ Today and Tonight: A broad upper-level longwave trough remains in place over much of the CONUS today, with a low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes and another more compact low sliding southeastward from Idaho toward New Mexico today into tonight. Rain chances will begin to increase again late tonight into Wednesday morning as the more substantial low pressure system to our west begins to affect the region.
Precipitation will begin tapering off after sunset, and should mostly end by midnight as the closed low moves farther south into northern New Mexico. Transitory ridging will take over for Wednesday, leading to clearer skies and near seasonal temperatures for the majority of the area.
1118 AM MDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Water vapor imagery shows an upper low across northern Utah, sliding southeast toward Colorado. Little to no accumulation is expected, especially if temps remain above freezing.
206 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Current Water Vapor and upper air models show an upper Low sitting over the four corners region.
Tonight into Wednesday morning, expect lows to range mainly in the low to upper 50s north of I-10, with upper 50s to low 60s south. Highs on Wednesday will be similar to today, albeit a few degrees warmer. Expect highs to range in the low to mid 80s inland (some spotty upper 80s possible in local hot-spots), with mid to upper 70s at the immediate coast.
Conditions will dry out overnight, but temperatures will plunge to freezing north of I-74, with areas of frost expected over much of central Illinois.
A slight chance of showers was left along the Highway 12 corridor this afternoon, but it is much more likely to remain dry.