Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
513 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) An upper low swinging across CO today will move over KS tonight and into NE Tuesday. A secondary trough associated with this low will cross SE NM and W TX Tuesday before an upper ridge over the Western US begins to build into the area Tuesday night. Temperatures will be a little cooler tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s. Highs Tuesday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today with readings in the 50s and 60s with a few 70s along the Rio Grande. Lows Tuesday night a few degrees cooler than tonight.
Near term models are continuing with the idea of another round of show- ers and possible thunderstorms tonight/overnight with the passage of a cold front.
Weak upper level ridging will shift east of the Northern Rockies through Tuesday, which will lead to increasing winds in wind prone locations.
701 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2023 High pressure offshore will continue to bring warm air into the region.
The initial surge of precipitation is pushing north across Nebraska with mostly snow north of highway 2 and generally west of highway 183 with mixed precipitation further to the southeast and freezing drizzle to the southwest. A good amount of freezing rain is present with the mixed precipitation and ice accumulations through early tonight will generally be up to 2 tenths of an inch, possibly more across far southeastern Frontier, Custer, and Wheeler counties. As the low slowly moves into the upper Mississippi valley precipitation will gradually diminish through the day on Tuesday.
Based on position of upper level low, radar and high res data have upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning across the plains from Limon to Fort Morgan north to the WY border and eastward. The upper trough is now over Colorado. Water vapor satellite pictures are showing a couple circulations within the trough axis. There has been very little precipitation across the CWA today so far, mainly just a bit of freezing drizzle. The latest models are now showing a couple circulations within the upper trough tonight. On Tuesday, the upper trough/close low pushes off to the northeast with weak zonal flow aloft across the CWA. The high resolution models continue to showing measurable snow for much of the forecast area, the most over the east and northeastern plains. 5 C warmer than today's afternoon highs.
The cold front has entered the far northwest part of the forecast area and isolated showers and storms have developed in its vicinity.
However, overall values may remain a couple of degrees "warmer" than last night given slightly greater moisture values (as compared to 24 hours ago) as well as ongoing areas of stratus. Weak upper level ridging will shift east of the Northern Rockies through Tuesday, which will lead to increasing winds in wind prone locations.
324 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023 (Issued 313 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023) Tonight and Tuesday: Cyclogenesis is still expected from the TX panhandle to wrn IA through Tue AM as the large upper low over the intermountain west swings newd into the Great Plains. The low will then slowly occlude over IA Tue nt-Wed with a weakening occlusion moving across srn WI Wed nt-Thu. Ely winds will keep temps rather cool with better confidence in a period of lgt freezing rain toward WI Dells and MQT and Green Lake Counties from the early morning hours and and beyond sunrise before turning to all rain.
236 PM MST Mon Jan 2 2023 High pressure is projected to move over the Northern Rockies through Tuesday. Speaking of fog, valley temperature inversions will allow areas of fog and freezing fog to redevelop tonight (mainly across west central and northwest Montana valleys). Most global models and their ensembles agree that a broad low pressure circulation offshore near the Pacific Northwest will push a series of weak, breaking atmospheric waves over the Northern Rockies Tuesday evening through much of the remainder of this week.
538 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) The high clouds that encompassed the area this morning has quickly pushed eastward as the upper low swings into Colorado today. Temperatures are to be cooler than the previous few nights, which were more mild. However, temperatures will be kept near or above freezing tonight across the area given the elevated winds expected overnight. A disturbance in the broad troughing aloft behind the closed low pushing into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa will help to give way to a weak lee low development.
209 PM MST Mon Jan 2 2023 The upper trough is now over Colorado. Water vapor satellite pictures are showing a couple circulations within the trough axis. There has been very little precipitation across the CWA today so far, mainly just a bit of freezing drizzle. The latest models are now showing a couple circulations within the upper trough tonight. On Tuesday, the upper trough/close low pushes off to the northeast with weak zonal flow aloft across the CWA. The high resolution models continue to showing measurable snow for much of the forecast area, the most over the east and northeastern plains. 5 C warmer than today's afternoon highs.
218 PM MST Mon Jan 2 2023 Once again, we are faced with a tricky dense freezing fog forecast. Given the high level of confidence and expectation that dense fog will roar back into the region again this evening through the overnight hours, the current dense fog advisory (out through tomorrow morning) should suffice.
416 PM MST Mon Jan 2 2023 The upper trough is now over Colorado. Water vapor satellite pictures are showing a couple circulations within the trough axis. There has been very little precipitation across the CWA today so far, mainly just a bit of freezing drizzle. The latest models are now showing a couple circulations within the upper trough tonight. On Tuesday, the upper trough/close low pushes off to the northeast with weak zonal flow aloft across the CWA. The high resolution models continue to showing measurable snow for much of the forecast area, the most over the east and northeastern plains. 5 C warmer than today's afternoon highs.
The parent upper level trough driving this winter storm system has moved into Colorado this afternoon.
Upper low over eastern WY had 110kt jet streak ahead of it which will force moderate/heavy snow from KIEN-KICR overnight, which is where strong frontogenesis in place. Weaker lead trough is still supporting light snow across most of the region, with more persistent moderate to heavy snow ongoing across south central SD. The main upper trough will support very strong FGEN response over the NE panhandle into scentral SD, with very heavy snow still on track there.
645 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2023 (Rest of today through Tuesday) High pressure around the area is keeping conditions dry and warm today across South Florida and is expected to continue through tomorrow as well. As the high shifts more eastward and expands over the Atlantic, winds become breezier tonight out of the east and will start to veer more southeasterly tomorrow. Temperatures are expected to peak in the low to mid 80s both today and tomorrow for the region.
315 PM MST Mon Jan 2 2023 Partial clearing and cooler tonight before another weather system brings a few showers to the area Tuesday. Still seeing scattered showers in a brisk westerly flow behind the trough.
continued warm and rather humid with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
(Tonight through Tuesday) Cold front was extended from Junction to just west of San Saba at 8 PM, and continued to move east around 35 mph.
Large trough with some negative tilted aspects occurring. The main focus for the short term is the advancing trough that will turn into a low over northern portions of the area. Any freezing rain looks to occur to the east of Highway 27 with freezing rain transitioning to all snow as the entire moisture profile falls below 0C. Freezing rain looks to end across the entire area by 04Z. the center of which (ridge) will be situated over the Intermountain West/4-Corners. With the Tri- State area situated on the eastern periphery of the ridge. and western periphery of a stalled upper level low invof the Great Lakes.
- Combination of ice/snow and gusty winds could lead to power outages where prolonged freezing rain occur. The mid level closed low should reach south central Nebraska by sunrise Tuesday, then to northwest Iowa by Tuesday evening.
A weak low pressure system will move through the area tonight and provide for some light precipitation.
The number one change today is that temperatures this morning and afternoon have struggled to get as warm as some of the higher-res guidance this morning suggested. Unfortunately for the area, we are cooler which lends itself to more icing potential. Multiple models indicate that CAPE around 200-300 j/kg will be over south central Nebraska as the upper low lifts out into the region.
- Combination of ice/snow and gusty winds could lead to power outages where prolonged freezing rain occurs. The mid level closed low should reach south central Nebraska by sunrise Tuesday, then to northwest Iowa by Tuesday evening.
1158 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2023 Areas of dense fog have developed, but visibilities are expected to improve from south to north the rest of the night as a warm front begins to lift across the region.
It's new surface reflection over the TX/OK Panhandle had a cold front extending southward across Texas. Even with these showers moving in, temperatures should only fall into the lower 60s.
300 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 Discussion/Marine - Rain showers and patchy fog through tonight - Low pressure over northern Missouri with a warm front extending east across northern IL/IN/OH will bring rain showers and patchy fog today. There is just the slightest chance of an isolated storm over our extreme southern fcst area from early to mid morning as a result of weak elevated instability north of the warm front.
It will remain mild with highs ranging from the middle 50s across southern Michigan to the lower 60s south of US 30.
1050 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) The high clouds that encompassed the area this morning has quickly pushed eastward as the upper low swings into Colorado today. Temperatures are to be cooler than the previous few nights, which were more mild. However, temperatures will be kept near or above freezing tonight across the area given the elevated winds expected overnight. A disturbance in the broad troughing aloft behind the closed low pushing into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa will help to give way to a weak lee low development.
125 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 High pressure offshore will continue to bring warm air into the region.
1209 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 (Rest of today through Tuesday) High pressure around the area is keeping conditions dry and warm today across South Florida and is expected to continue through tomorrow as well. As the high shifts more eastward and expands over the Atlantic, winds become breezier tonight out of the east and will start to veer more southeasterly tomorrow. Temperatures are expected to peak in the low to mid 80s both today and tomorrow for the region.
A low pressure system is lifting northeast through the Midwest today, with a broad warm sector extending across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. A Pacific cold front crossed the Rocky Mountains yesterday and overtook a dryline in East Texas, where there is a sharp 20 to 30-degree dewpoint difference across this feature early this morning. Then thunderstorm potential and accompanying threats for severe weather and flash flooding should decrease from west to east through the evening as the Pacific cold front clears the area. Polar front will catch up late night into tomorrow to bring more noticeably "cooler" air.
It will also maintain the much cooler than average temperatures today.
1030 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) An upper low swinging across CO today will move over KS tonight and into NE Tuesday. A secondary trough associated with this low will cross SE NM and W TX Tuesday before an upper ridge over the Western US begins to build into the area Tuesday night. Temperatures will be a little cooler tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s. Highs Tuesday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today with readings in the 50s and 60s with a few 70s along the Rio Grande. Lows Tuesday night a few degrees cooler than tonight.
Previous Discussion: Once again, we are faced with a tricky dense freezing fog forecast. Given the high level of confidence and expectation that dense fog will roar back into the region again this evening through the overnight hours, the current dense fog advisory (out through tomorrow morning) should suffice.
KDDC radar observations across southwest KS show a small patch of light snow north of Garden City moving northeast, located at the very tip of the wrap-around region of a strong surface cyclone centered near Kansas City. As this cyclone moves away along with the attendant upper level wave, conditions will slowly improve with all precipitation and fog clearing out by sunrise.
Axis of strong upper level ridge over the Florida Peninsula this morning will be pushed east next two days as a long wave trough moves into the Mississippi Valley.
1050 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday) Cold front was extended from Junction to just west of San Saba at 8 PM, and continued to move east around 35 mph.
1017 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2023 High pressure offshore will continue to bring warm air into the region.
The upper level trough currently moving inland over the Pacific Northwest will continue to weaken, so the probability of measurable precipitation will remain low tonight and Tuesday.
1113 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: - Weak cold front overnight into tomorrow morning - Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly over Victoria Crossroads - Patchy to areas of fog possible in advance of the front A weak cold front will enter our western CWA shortly after midnight and push southeastward through South Texas overnight, reaching the coast in the mid-morning. Highs on Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler ranging from the mid 70s to around 80.
A deep area of closed low pressure is located across the central plains this morning. The negative tilt to the system has allowed this moisture to advect westward into the High Plains where a deformation axis of snow has materialized early this morning.
As high pressure pushes further seaward into the western Atlc our winds will continue to veer from SERLY to SSE/S/SSW across the area. Generally favorable boating conditions continues during the day as high pressure in the western Atlc pulls further seaward.
607 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 (Today through Wednesday) South Florida remains under the influence of an area of high pressure over the western Atlantic waters, which will keep conditions dry and warm through the short-term period. As the high pressure expands further eastward today and tomorrow, winds over our area will shift from the southeast and become breezy. High temperatures will remain above average today and tomorrow, reaching the low 80s across the region.
533 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 Aviation - Rain showers and patchy fog through tonight - Low pressure over northern Missouri with a warm front extending east across northern IL/IN/OH will bring rain showers and patchy fog today. There is just the slightest chance of an isolated storm over our extreme southern fcst area from early to mid morning as a result of weak elevated instability north of the warm front. - Still some lingering light precipitation midweek - The weakening low pressure system will still bring a few light rain showers and sprinkles Wednesday.
The pattern is then forecast to become northwesterly aloft on Wednesday and Wednesday night as an upper level ridge of high pressure translates eastward across the western states while a deep upper level trof tracks across the Midwest and Great Lakes states.
During this time, good shear and helicity remain in place ahead of a the pre-frontal trough axis that is producing all this convection current to our west and northwest. (Tonight through Wednesday night) Some models hint at another round of strong to severe thunderstorms moving into the area ahead of and along the primary cold front during the overnight hours through daybreak on Wednesday. Cold air advection behind the front will make for a cooler day, as highs only reach the 60 to 65 degree range.
334 AM MST Tue Jan 3 2023 Across the region this morning, skies remain cloudy with wrap around moisture from a slow moving exiting low pressure system bringing additional snow mainly for areas north of the Interstate. As the low complex shifts further east this morning, do expect precip to wane, but not before an additional inch or so of snow falls, mainly for areas along/north of Highway 36 based on current radar imagery. Going into tonight, winds begin to drop off as the system pulls away further, allowing for high pressure to become the dominant weather feature. Guidance has an upper ridge building east from the Rockies for the remainder of the short term period, allowing for dry conditions area-wide. Looking for a range in the lower to mid 30s.
However, a poorly defined surface cold front will make progress east into the mid Mississippi Valley. The high-res models suggest some isolated storms could initiate near this boundary this afternoon. The rain will end after midnight as the cold front exits our region along with the upper-level impulse.
529 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 (Today through Tomorrow Night) The anticipated cold front is currently making its way through the area. The rest of the short term will be dominated by high pressure building in the wake of the cold front's exit. Expect drier (no more dew points in the low 70s!) and cooler/near normal temperatures. Today's high temperatures (low to mid 70s) will be occuring between now and the mid morning before the cold front pushes through. The low temperatures tonight will be about 10 degrees cooler compared to the previous night with temperatures in the mid 40s to near 50. Cooler weather prevails on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 60s north of Conroe and low 70s elsewhere. Clear skies and light winds will bring low temperatures Wednesday night down into the low to mid 40s area-wide.
The highest amounts will be over eastern Tripp where the snow will continue longest today.
Turning colder as a cold front brings a return to seasonably cold weather through mid week. Well advertised upper low to continue crossing the Central Plains today. dragging a cold front through the forecast area. with region wide temperatures tonight approaching the freezing mark. Patchy fog has formed over eastern Kansas early this morning as low levels saturate with the initial arrival of cooler air. Upper level heights will slowly build through mid week as the upper low departs into the Great Lakes while at the same time a broad area of high pressure forms over the Plains.
A Pacific cold front moved through the region yesterday evening, ushering in gusty west winds and slightly cooler temperatures. Highs today will be slightly above seasonal normals, in the low to mid 60s for most of the region, except across our southeast counties where highs will be in the upper 60s. Expect overnight low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the Big Country, to the low to mid 40s elsewhere.
Near record warmth again this afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 80s. (Today through Wednesday) South Florida remains under the influence of an area of high pressure over the western Atlantic waters, which will keep conditions dry and warm through the short-term period. As the high pressure expands further eastward today and tomorrow, winds over our area will shift from the southeast and become breezy. High temperatures will remain above average today and tomorrow, reaching the low 80s across the region.
(Today) Patchy fog has developed early this morning preceding the arrival of drier dewpoints, however observations suggest the lowest visibilities last a couple of hours before improvement. The result will be temps notably cooler than recent days but still above seasonal averages.
439 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 Issued at 439 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 Fog is finally moving out of the area as dry air is being wrapped into the low pressure center.
High pressure or stable conditions has resulted in development of patchy fog and low stratus across valleys in the Northern Rockies. A ridge of high pressure will linger over the Northern Rockies through Wednesday. However there will be weak pieces of energy and moisture moving through this ridge which will trigger a few snow showers primarily over the mountains in central Idaho and Northwest Montana.
506 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 (Today) Patchy fog has developed early this morning preceding the arrival of drier dewpoints, however observations suggest the lowest visibilities last a couple of hours before improvement. The result will be temps notably cooler than recent days but still above seasonal averages.
(Today through Tomorrow Night) The anticipated cold front is currently making its way through the area. The rest of the short term will be dominated by high pressure building in the wake of the cold front's exit. Expect drier (no more dew points in the low 70s!) and cooler/near normal temperatures. Today's high temperatures (low to mid 70s) will be occuring between now and the mid morning before the cold front pushes through. The low temperatures tonight will be about 10 degrees cooler compared to the previous night with temperatures in the mid 40s to near 50. Cooler weather prevails on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 60s north of Conroe and low 70s elsewhere. Clear skies and light winds will bring low temperatures Wednesday night down into the low to mid 40s area-wide.
Highs today may break record values, ranging in the low to mid 70s,upper 60s to around 70 Cumberland Plateau Region. After this, mid state region will begin to be influenced by high pressure influences building out of Rockies and slowly shifting eastward across contingous U.
VFR to prevail once all the low clouds and fog have lifted.
Cold with slightly below normal temperatures with surface trof across central Montana and high pressure in the northern Plains. A weak upper trof swings across the state on Wednesday, and may be enough to scour out the the low level moisture and coldest air and ending the foggy conditions. Widespread LIFR conditions with dense freezing fog under a shallow inversion.
A pre-frontal trough under an upper disturbance responsible for the majority of the ongoing convection will slowly shift east through early this morning. though the cold front itself will lag behind considerably. The aforementioned front should push east trough the state throughout the day.
As of 4 AM, that lift and instability are producing thunder and lightning across the area which is resulting in sleet, snow, and freezing rain. Snow formation may even be difficult in some places due to the shallow moisture profile, thus a variety of precipitation types are forecast today such as drizzle, freezing drizzle, and rain. Though freezing drizzle is possible today, ice will be less of a concern. Wrap around precipitation on the back end of the system in the form of light snowfall or light freezing drizzle may impact the evening commute so the Winter Weather Advisory will remain in effect until 6 PM.
423 AM MST Tue Jan 3 2023 Satellite imagery shows expansive cloud cover associated with the long wave trough that has moved east into the Central Plains as of this morning. On the back side of the center of low pressure, wrap around moisture continues to impact portions of the forecast area this morning. Still though, don't be surprised to see lingering orographic snowfall over the high terrain (particularly near the Continental Divide) tomorrow. Meanwhile, subsidence increases over the western CWA as a transitory ridge works across the western CONUS. Models were consistent in moving a ridge of high pressure over the Rockies Wednesday night ahead of the next Pacific storm as it approaches the West Coast.