Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Typically, ridging is established over the Northern Rockies with a monsoon moisture push from the Desert Southwest. The upper ridge is suppressed to the south with a series of upper lows laying from the Pacific Northwest, across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. The upper low that brought heavy rain to southeast Montana and Sheridan county Wyoming, has pushed well into South Dakota and was becoming a non player for our weather. This low was still active enough to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana. This third low will slide slowly east and take over the weakness in the atmosphere from the low over southwest Montana. As this low slides east, it will provide ascent for more showers and thunderstorms.
330 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 Key Points: - Cooler and drier air filters in today and Monday, creating much more pleasant conditions.
Otherwise the forecast remains on track for a slightly warmer day with some increased northerly winds at times across the east. Other than a few lingering showers in the southeast, look for a mainly dry day with slightly warmer temperatures. The northerly flow across the east may bring some increased winds at times, although the building ridge aloft should help limit conditions becoming breezy today. Look for mainly clear skies and cooler temperatures in the 50s.
Low temperatures tonight and again Monday night will be near normal despite cooler values during the daytime hours, generally plus (+) or minus (-) 3 degrees, largely in part to persistent cloud cover and an excess of antecedent low level moisture content.
627 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 (Today and tonight) Looks like another very hot day across the area with a strong upper level high over the area and an intense low level thermal ridge over the northwest part of the area.
549 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 Summary: Rain chances continue to decrease for today as temperatures trend warmer. Rain chances return for midweek as cooler air filters into the region. Vertically stacked low pressure was located in the Missouri Valley along the Nebraska-Iowa border this morning with a cold front across far northwestern Minnesota into southern North Dakota. With the low to the south continuing to move away from the region today, the cold front will be the main driver of shower activity across the region today. CAPE will be fairly anemic as well, despite less coverage of showers and warmer temperatures. Any lingering showers and storms will end this evening with dry conditions expected for tonight and Monday as high pressure moves through the region.
An upper level trough moving across the Mid-Mississippi Valley along with a cold front will bring severe weather chances to the Mid-South this afternoon and again tonight. This cold front will stall over the southern part of the region on Monday bringing more chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. Temperatures are projected to be cooler in the first half of the week with highs in the upper 80s.
The sounding also measured heights rising throughout most of the air column signaling in a ridge building across our area from the east. From synopsis, weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward across the Bahamas will maintain light mainly southeast breezes through this evening, becoming variable at times in the afternoon and evening hours.
Highs are on track to reach into the lower to mid 90s, with heat indices around 110 this afternoon. Light W/NW flow over the waters today becomes more W/SW for early in the week as slightly stronger high pressure builds across south FL. The ridge axis will meander through mid-week, then start to build north as the weekend approaches.
329 AM MDT Sun Aug 6 2023 Today through Monday Night: A weak low pressure system and stationary front will maintain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across mainly the higher terrain of central Montana through the period. High confidence (90%) exists for the rest of the area to stay dry with nearby high pressure.
952 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023 A trough may drive a few showers and clouds eastward toward the area early this evening. Bermuda high pressure will become dominant as high pressure extending in from the northeast weakens further. High pressure extending in from the northeast will weaken further as trough shifts eastward, possibly driving a few showers towards the area later today. Overall, models showing mainly zonal flow with minor perturbation moving east in deep westerly flow aloft driving some convection along weak trough to the west.
416 AM MDT Sun Aug 6 2023 The soggy and cool summer continues across WY today, as the next trough begins to impacts the state. The trough will begin to bring better midlevel lift to the region, especially the northern half of the state.
(Today through Monday) Mid-level ridging will remain in place through the period. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Key Points: - Cooler and drier air filters in today and Monday, creating much more pleasant conditions.
-Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Monday Night/ Hot conditions to persist across the region as an upper-level ridge remains centered across west Texas and New Mexico. Subsidence associated with the ridge to bring triple digit temperatures to much of central and north-central Texas today. As the upper- level ridge retrogrades west into the desert southwest, northwest flow aloft to increase along the northern periphery of the ridge across north Texas allowing for increased instability and slightly better rain chances on Monday, especially along and near the stalled frontal boundary. High temperatures across central Texas closer to the center of the ridge axis will persist around 105 degrees. Otherwise, slightly cooler temperatures in the mid to upper 90s expected across north Texas on Monday afternoon due to scattered clouds and increased mixing.
639 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 The upper low currently over southeast SD will continue to slide toward the southeast through today. As the low moves further away, dry conditions are then expected for tonight and Monday. H850/H925 temps suggest relatively mild highs in the 70s to around 80 both today and Monday, but perhaps a bit warmer overall for Monday. Clouds will be the last to leave the eastern CWA this afternoon, thus a tad cooler those areas for highs today.
The small compact upper level low impacting the region is currently over north central Oregon this morning. The low will slowly move eastward today and be centered over central Idaho by this evening. As the low moves off to the east overnight there could be some lingering moisture causing some showers across eastern Washington and NE Oregon. High temperatures will remain slightly cooler than normal over the next couple of days with minimum humidities staying above normal for this time of year.
605 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 Summertime high pressure continued to expand across extreme southeast Texas and much of southwest Louisiana.
Another day of afternoon temperatures reaching excessive heat levels then somewhat cooler the remainder of the coming week. The upper level high is easing up its grip on the area a little bit with mid-level temperatures cooling a couple of degrees C today and south to southeast flow beginning to develop. What that means for today is that afternoon high temperatures will be 1-3 degrees cooler than yesterday with the largest change to the west. Minimum humidities today will be 14 to 20 percent in the lower elevations and 20 to 30 percent in the mountains due to the increase in moisture. Due to this moisture, storm chances today are highest along the International border and the higher elevations for areas south and east of Tucson.
507 AM MDT Sun Aug 6 2023 The soggy and cool summer continues across WY today, as the next trough begins to impacts the state. The trough will begin to bring better midlevel lift to the region, especially the northern half of the state.
649 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 Summary: Rain chances continue to decrease for today as temperatures trend warmer. Rain chances return for midweek as cooler air filters into the region. Vertically stacked low pressure was located in the Missouri Valley along the Nebraska-Iowa border this morning with a cold front across far northwestern Minnesota into southern North Dakota. With the low to the south continuing to move away from the region today, the cold front will be the main driver of shower activity across the region today. CAPE will be fairly anemic as well, despite less coverage of showers and warmer temperatures. Any lingering showers and storms will end this evening with dry conditions expected for tonight and Monday as high pressure moves through the region.
Despite this, given warm northerly surface flow, temperatures remain in the 70s and low 80s throughout the Valley and adjacent foothills, and slightly cooler in the mountains. While upper level troughing begins to build in, anomalously high heights remain in place over the region into Monday, with warm temperatures and widespread Moderate HeatRisk looking to prevail into the early week ahead. Resultant minimum RH values in the low to mid teens look possible this afternoon, recovering only slightly into the mid teens to low 20s for Monday afternoon minimums. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement on previously persistent ridging aloft giving way to increasing troughing and lowering heights through the remainder of the week ahead.
Discussion: Stacked mid latitude cyclone within South Dakota continues to slowly churn east into southern Minnesota early this morning. It is a little hard to find the trough via wind shift, but is a bit more noticeable by looking at moisture gradient via lowering dew pts. 5 kJ/kg along and ahead of the trough from near Lisbon through the Fargo-Moorhead metro to near Bemidji owing to temperatures climbing into the mid 70s amidst upper 60s dew pts. Ensembles continue to forecast a generally less amplified and wavy northwesterly flow regime over the region as an upper trough sets up over/near the Hudson Bay and flat upper ridging over the south-central and southwest CONUS.
413 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 Key Messages: Rain is likely on the backside of low pressure across north central Nebraska today. A cold front will bring cooler and windier weather to the area today.
The cold front will move through the region tonight and that should scour out the low-level moisture and lead to a mostly dry day Monday.
Instability this aftn will be much less than yesterday, with MLCAPE by aftn ranging from 500-800 j/kg, mainly over the higher terrain. Position of the upper level jet will allow for sct higher based showers and storms over the higher terrain and possibly over the Palmer Divide. Threat of severe is low this aftn, however, can't rule out a few gusts from 50 to 60 mph over the higher terrain due to decent mid level flow. For tonight, may see an increase in tstm development by mid evening as there appears to be a mid level thermal trough moving across. In addition, warm air advection may develop in the lower levels.
548 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 (Today and tonight) Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of this morning northeast of a ridge. An upper jet will slightly shift southward by this afternoon and a weak accompanying surface cold front will do likewise. This combined with easterly winds will bring a slight reprieve in high temperatures for the far southwestern Panhandle with highs in the low 90s.
633 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 (Today through Monday) Mid-level ridging will remain in place through the period. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
For the rest of today, forecast remains on track with cooler temperatures behind the frontal boundary and 700mb temperatures hovering around 5C to 7C, with daytime highs expected to be in the low to mid-70s across southeast Wyoming and warmer for the Nebraska Panhandle. However, severe potentials will remain on the low side, with weak CAPE values still evident across the region.
An upper ridge sits over the Desert Southwest while an upper low shifts east from the northern Plains and into the Midwest.
627 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023 A trough may drive a few showers and clouds eastward toward the area early this evening. Bermuda high pressure will become dominant as high pressure extending in from the northeast weakens further. High pressure extending in from the northeast will weaken further as trough shifts eastward, possibly driving a few showers towards the area later today. Overall, models showing mainly zonal flow with minor perturbation moving east in deep westerly flow aloft driving some convection along weak trough to the west.
Key Messages: Rain is likely on the backside of low pressure across north central Nebraska today. A cold front will bring cooler and windier weather to the area today.
Upper low and associated rain continues to exit the region with lingering rain showers expected over scentral SD through morning. Main upper trough and associated lift will then spread east over the region Tues, supporting more chances for sct showers and TS then. MVFR/IFR cigs over south central SD will slowly move out of the region this morning as low pressure moves off to the east.
At the surface, still some ongoing showers and thunderstorms across parts of the southern and eastern CWA this afternoon on the back side of the low pressure system that brought rain to the area the last couple of days. This low will slide southeast this evening as high pressure drops over the region, with precipitation coming to an end by 03Z or so. The high will then result in dry conditions through the remainder of the period for most of the area.
Cooler by mid-week. Increasing tropical moisture will lead to high cloud cover through the middle of this week as well as slight chances of showers and thunderstorms region-wide, with the highest chances over the mountains. Expect highs in the upper-70s to low-80s at the coast, the upper-80s to upper-90s for inland San Diego/Orange Counties, the upper-90s to mid-100s across the Inland Empire, the 80s and 90s in the mountains, the low-100s in the High Desert and the mid-110s in the lower deserts. Heights will fall over Southern California on Monday leading to cooler temperatures, with highs within a few degrees of normal.
A cold front is expected to slowly move in tonight, increasing rain chances through tomorrow night.
25 Summertime high pressure continued to expand across extreme southeast Texas and much of southwest Louisiana.
Showers and storms will increase across the Central ID Mountains, Baker County, OR and near the NV border again this afternoon as the low pressure center over Oregon continues to bring waves of moisture. This low, along with a cold front, will move into the area tomorrow afternoon, and bring stronger and more widespread showers and storms. Otherwise, temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees below normal, and breezy afternoon westerly winds are still expected as the low passes tomorrow. Isolated showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow, mainly in the Lower Snake River Plain, West Central Mountains, and Baker County, OR.
Developing low pressure system over Iowa looks to swing through central Illinois tonight, yielding scattered showers and a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms across far southern and southeastern Wisconsin.
A slow moving upper level low continues to linger over the area today, resulting in a fairly widespread area of light to moderate rainfall across North Central Montana this afternoon. Ahead of this system, Monday still looks somewhat cloudy and cool for this time of year, with highs across Southwestern Montana topping out in the low to mid 70s, with highs near 80 across the Plains.
Upper low and associated rain continues to exit the region with lingering rain showers expected over scentral SD through morning. Main upper trough and associated lift will then spread east over the region Tues, supporting more chances for sct showers and TS then. MVFR/IFR cigs over south central SD will move out of the region this afternoon as low pressure moves to the east while some CU develops across the area. North winds over western SD will become lighter as pressure gradient decreases, then winds across the entire forecast area become southerly behind high pressure.
(This afternoon through Monday night) The subtropical ridge extends from the Atlantic to the Pacific with a 597 high extending from Baja across Srn NM into Central TX. An upper trough swinging across the Upper MS valley Monday and another trough moving down out of the NW US will have little effect on the ridge.
1215 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 (Today and tonight) Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of this morning northeast of a ridge. An upper jet will slightly shift southward by this afternoon and a weak accompanying surface cold front will do likewise. This combined with easterly winds will bring a slight reprieve in high temperatures for the far southwestern Panhandle with highs in the low 90s.
1203 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 (Today through Monday) The subtropical ridge will remain in place through the short term period, generally centered across west Texas and southern New Mexico. If anything, the center of the ridge appears shift slightly east through Monday which would result in temperatures increasing a degree or so on average across the CWA as well as a slight lowering of dewpoints.
The upper low currently over southeast SD will continue to slide toward the southeast through today. As the low moves further away, dry conditions are then expected for tonight and Monday. H850/H925 temps suggest relatively mild highs in the 70s to around 80 both today and Monday, but perhaps a bit warmer overall for Monday. Clouds will be the last to leave the eastern CWA this afternoon, thus a tad cooler those areas for highs today.
223 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 A stacked low pressure system is spinning over Iowa early this afternoon. As the downstream low continues to drift south and east through tonight, the Northern Plains will be placed under weak northwest flow aloft with ridging at the surface. There is greater uncertainty Monday afternoon when the HRRR and RAP develop thunderstorms along a theta- e ridge crossing southwest North Dakota from northwest to southeast. If the theta-e ridge does come to fruition and a few thunderstorms do develop, they would have access to SBCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg but with weak mid level lapse rates and effective bulk shear less than 20 kts, which would not be supportive of severe convection.
135 PM MDT Sun Aug 6 2023 Bottom line up front: An upper low departing to our east will continue to support a few showers across south central SD this afternoon, while another wave approaching from the west will bring showers and storms to western portions of the area later this afternoon through tomorrow. WV/IR imagery this afternoon shows an upper low centered over IA gradually shifting eastward away from our area. Lingering deep moisture along the backside of this low is contributing to a broad cloud shield and embedded showers/storms as far west as central SD. Though warmer than yesterday for most, temperatures around the area remain a solid 10 to 15 degrees below average. As first upper low departs to our east this evening, any lingering shower activity across south central SD should cease.
(This evening through Monday) A cold front associated with a mid/upper-level low across the Midwest is advancing southeastward across Oklahoma this afternoon with a drier and slightly cooler air mass advecting southward in its wake.
1129 AM MDT Sun Aug 6 2023 The soggy and cool summer continues across WY today, as the next trough begins to impacts the state. The trough will begin to bring better midlevel lift to the region, especially the northern half of the state.
Another day of afternoon temperatures reaching excessive heat levels then somewhat cooler the remainder of the coming week. The 12z 500 mb chart placed center of strong upper high just east of El Paso with mostly westerly flow below 500 mb over SE AZ per 12z short TUS sounding. Minimum humidities today will be 14 to 20 percent in the lower elevations and 20 to 30 percent in the mountains due to the increase in moisture. Due to this moisture, storm chances today are highest along the International border and the higher elevations for areas south and east of Tucson. The low temperature at the Tucson airport this morning was a very warm 85 degrees.
(Rest of today through Monday) South Florida remains sandwiched between bodies of high pressure and underneath mid-level ridging. The low level winds will remain light and out of the southeast. The warming trend began today with daily highs forecast to reach the low to mid 90s. The temperatures will trend warmer tomorrow with highs reaching the low to mid 90s.
Areas with the highest probability for excessive rainfall, will be Idaho and Lemhi counties in Idaho. Locations with the highest threat for impacts due to heavy rainfall will be centered north-central Idaho.
1257 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 Summary: Rain chances continue to decrease for today as temperatures trend warmer. Rain chances return for midweek as cooler air filters into the region. Vertically stacked low pressure was located in the Missouri Valley along the Nebraska-Iowa border this morning with a cold front across far northwestern Minnesota into southern North Dakota. With the low to the south continuing to move away from the region today, the cold front will be the main driver of shower activity across the region today. CAPE will be fairly anemic as well, despite less coverage of showers and warmer temperatures. Any lingering showers and storms will end this evening with dry conditions expected for tonight and Monday as high pressure moves through the region.
There was a short break in the clouds between last nights MCV circling to our northeast and the incoming low pressure system. North of this line has the higher values of CIN. The storms that develop will be supported mainly by the high shear values. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen which will push more moisture into central Illinois.
High pressure maintains warm and dry conditions over the next few days.
The cyclonic flow and weak synoptic ascent aloft, diurnal heating and abundant moisture in place (pwats close to an inch) will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms thru this afternoon and evening, with best chances west of Miles City and Broadus (ridging exists in this area). Upper trof will finally slide east tonight and this (along with modest LLJ) should support overnight showers and a few embedded thunderstorms in our southeast.
A cold front in the Texas Panhandle this afternoon may move into Haskell and Throckmorton counties late tonight/Monday morning.
Deformation immediately ahead of the cold front moving into our southeast has helps organize clusters of showers and embedded slow moving thunderstorms, with rates 1-2"/hr.
The persistent Stratus deck is still over the Greater Denver/central CWA area and down into the the Palmer Ridge as this time. Models keep flat upper ridging over the CWA tonight and Monday. Currently, there is about 400-900 J/kg of MLCAPE over the mountains, foothills and Palmer Ridge.
The higher dewpoints and higher MLCAPE values will be had there and not as high across the state line into Wyoming.
1233 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 (Today through Monday) Mid-level ridging will remain in place through the period. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
(Tonight through Monday night) The upper level high pressure system, with E-W axis across the Southwestern CONUS/northern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to persist during the period per deterministic output from global/mesoscale models. The upper ridge and below normal PWATs will preclude precipitation. With respect to Heat Index values, a drier vertical column may result in slightly warmer 2-meter temperatures, yet lower surface dew points from vertical mixing of drier air from aloft.
302 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 An active pattern looks to continue across the Central and Southern Plains with short wave troughs moving southeast across the region.