Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong cold front is currently moving south across far northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma. Strong west winds will persist behind the dryline this afternoon, with gusty north winds developing behind the cold front. Dry and much cooler conditions will prevail on Friday, with diminishing winds during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be well below normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 50s.
305 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Cold front will push through the forecast area late Friday into Friday night bringing widespread shower chances and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, especially in the western area. However, the increasing cloudiness will impact overnight temperatures with much warmer lows compared to the last few nights. By early Friday morning, a cold front will be well to the west of the area extending into the Deep South. High pressure will have shifted off the coast with upper ridge axis shifting leading to deep moisture increase across the area.
The Pacific Northwest is under a ridge of high pressure and the latest satellite imagery showed little in the way of clouds. Otherwise, expecting just a few cirrus as a weak disturbance rides around the top of an upper-level ridge of high pressure.
The cold front makes its passage late tonight-early Friday, with cold air slamming in behind it.
Tomorrow, there will be continued cold air advection as another vort comes down the back side of the upper low. The highest winds are expected to be west of most of the snow showers, so at this point do not have enough confidence for an upgrade to advisory but will put out another SPS for blowing/drifting/blow ice and mentioning snow showers. Winds will decrease a bit Friday night as high pressure builds into the area, but there will still be a gradient and wind chills could again flirt with advisory criteria.
Much cooler temperatures and dry Friday through the weekend. A broken line of low-topped convection is expected to continue developing this afternoon from eastern Kansas into central and eastern Oklahoma along an advancing cold front. SPC SSCRAM guidance probabilities also support this low-end hazard with severe wind gust probabilities of 5-9%. General pattern: An upper trough will move through the region, bringing a cold front into the area this afternoon and completely through the area by midnight tonight. Temperatures look to be near freezing during this time range, but after yesterday and today seeing highs in the low to mid 60s the ground will be too warm to support and accumulations or impacts (perhaps a short lived dusting on grassy surfaces). Colder this weekend: Upper troughing will settle across the region this weekending, resulting in much cooler temperatures.
913 AM PDT Thu Mar 16 2023 The Pacific Northwest is under a ridge of high pressure and the latest satellite imagery showed little in the way of clouds.
As we move into the early afternoon, continued lift ahead of the cold front will gradually improve the convective environment with MUCAPE of 500-2000 J/KG possible (highest south). For northeast OK, there will be a brief window for marginally severe thunderstorms right along the cold front during the early afternoon. As the cold front moves east through the afternoon and evening the severe risk will expand and increase, especially for southeast OK. Behind the cold front, precipitation will wind down, with no additional rainfall after about 7 PM.
Tonight and Friday Rain will change to snow before diminishing overnight as colder air arrives as the upper trough approaches and boundary layer temperatures cool. Snow showers and flurries are possible elsewhere in the afternoon as an upper trough approaches.
Tonight and Friday High pressure will dominate sensible weather across eastern Idaho the next few days. Things will be pleasant with mainly clear skies, light winds, no precip although temperatures will still run on the cooler side of average. Daytime highs Friday will be a few degrees warmer than today and with ample sunshine, could see some continued snow melt in the lower valleys.
(The rest of this afternoon through tonight) Cold front is currently moving into western sections of Pawnee and Osage counties this afternoon. The more likely scenario is storms will quickly become linear as cold front rapidly moves into the CWA.
309 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 (This afternoon through Friday) Nice, quiet weather ends today as high pressure ridge axis slides east of the area tonight as front approaches from the west.
As we head into our Friday our next cold front will start to approach the area. This will increase the winds out of the south and bring in much warmer air with almost all of us seeing highs in the mid 80's on Friday.
/26 (Now through Friday) Upper level ridging today quickly gives way to west-southwesterly flow aloft Friday as an upper level trough transits the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions. A cold front approaches the region from the northwest Friday into Friday afternoon, serving as the main focus for weather during the near term period with potential severe thunderstorms including damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. For this morning, temperatures start out rather chilly in the lower to middle 30's inland with upper 30's and lower 40's nearer the coast. Given this, anticipate temperatures to quickly warm after daybreak, with highs topping out in the lower to middle 70's for most locations. As we head into Friday morning, a cold front quickly approaches from the northwest into our southeastern MS and interior southwestern AL counties near daybreak.
On Friday, a weak trough near the Four Corners around 12z, will continue to weaken as it slides eastward along the southern border through the day.
We should clear out by mid morning and the cooler air should be arriving behind the front. Expect much cooler weather for the weekend with multiple nights with lows below freezing on deck.
305 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023 AFTERNOON Discussion: Atmospheric Setup: Although the upper-level trough axis has shifted into western ND, light snow showers are still lingering in eastern MT.
719 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will affect the Mid-South tonight with cooler and drier air settling over the region for the weekend.
The low will be deepening as well as it moves off to the north of the area. The rain associated with the low will come in several waves this afternoon through Friday morning. The higher resolution models all point to totals of around an inch in the same area of our lakeshore counties from Ottawa north towards Mason. It will be noticeably brisk though with a stiff west to northwest wind developing behind the cold front at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph.
The strong cold front will follow for the early morning hours across srn WI.
707 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Eroding high pressure will return widespread rain to the region late tonight and Friday. Cool and windy conditions are expected this weekend in the wake a crossing cold front. Meanwhile, the aforementioned low pressure undergoing cyclogenesis across the Great Lakes, will eventually pull a cold front across the area through Friday afternoon. The cold frontal passage is expected to clear the eastern ridges by early Friday evening, and in its wake, the downward transport of strong wind from ~850mb should to mix to the surface. Peak gusts will likely remain below advisory criteria across the lowlands, but the highest ridges may near that threshold.
626 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 (This evening through Friday) 2 PM West Texas Mesonet observations show the east-west oriented cold front located just north of Lubbock County and quickly moving south. Strong westerly winds will continue ahead of the front in the lower South Plains and the southern Rolling Plains this afternoon before the arrival of the front. Tonight is expected to be much colder in the wake of the cold front with lows in the 20s and low 30s for most locations.
The cool and dry air aided in the lower dew point temperatures and relative humidity values, which resulted in a slightly below normal daytime high temperature for Key West International airport. Despite the echo-free radar, high pressure sliding southeast and the since-departed frontal boundary continue to promote a tight pressure gradient across the southeast United States and Florida.
555 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 (Tonight) With the high pressure over our area moving off towards the Atlantic tonight, winds will come from the south and hover between 5 to 10 mph. From the I-75 corridor towards the west of the I-95 corridor lows will be in the lower 50s, while coastal areas will see lows in the upper 50s.
(The rest of tonight) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong cold front will be moving east of the area within the next hour or so.
The low level flow has turned more northeasterly compared to north-northeasterly from earlier. On Friday, a weak trough near the Four Corners around 12z, will continue to weaken as it slides eastward along the southern border through the day.
514 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Motions in the satellite imagery indicate low level high pressure building over the Great Basin with an upper level trough associated with the jet to the south shifting east out of the Great Basin towards the Divide. A bit of mid level vorticity squeezed under the ridge building over the upper Great Basin to combine with the diurnal heating to kick off a few convective cells over the San Juan Mountains this afternoon.
601 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Cold front will push through the forecast area late Friday into Friday night bringing widespread shower chances and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, especially in the western area. However, the increasing cloudiness will impact overnight temperatures with much warmer lows compared to the last few nights. By early Friday morning, a cold front will be well to the west of the area extending into the Deep South. High pressure will have shifted off the coast with upper ridge axis shifting leading to deep moisture increase across the area.
(Tonight) Light rainfall continues to gradually move eastward across west TN/north MS this Thu evening, as a cold front approaches the MS River. Current temps in the lower 60s/near 60F will also fall into the lower/mid 50s overnight, before cooler air arrives following the passage of the cold front.
754 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 A cold front will approach the Ohio Valley tonight leading to widespread rainfall and mild temperatures. The cold front rushes through the area on Friday bringing anomalously cold air for the weekend.
636 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 (The rest of this afternoon through tonight) Cold front is currently moving into western sections of Pawnee and Osage counties this afternoon. The more likely scenario is storms will quickly become linear as cold front rapidly moves into the CWA.
553 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Eroding high pressure will return widespread rain to the region late tonight and Friday. Cool and windy conditions are expected this weekend in the wake a crossing cold front. Meanwhile, the aforementioned low pressure undergoing cyclogenesis across the Great Lakes, will eventually pull a cold front across the area through Friday afternoon. The cold frontal passage is expected to clear the eastern ridges by early Friday evening, and in its wake, the downward transport of strong wind from ~850mb should to mix to the surface. Peak gusts will likely remain below advisory criteria across the lowlands, but the highest ridges may near that threshold.
A weather system will exit the region tonight with dry and cooler weather expected on Friday.
621 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 (This evening through Friday) NEAR-TERM: The primary near-term concern will be severe weather along and ahead of a southward-advancing cold front this afternoon. The cold front is racing south and east per surface observations. NM Behind the cold front, temperatures are falling.
757 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Cold front will push through the forecast area late Friday into Friday night bringing widespread shower chances and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, especially in the western area. Some mid and upper level cloudiness, ahead of an approaching system, along with some wind, will provide much warmer min temps tonight compared to the last few nights, in the 40s. By early Friday morning, a cold front will be well to the west of the area extending into the Deep South. High pressure will have shifted off the coast with upper ridge axis shifting leading to deep moisture increase across the area.
628 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 A strong cold front moved across the region today bringing with it sharp decreases in temperatures and a stout northerly wind shift. Aloft, while a trough axis rotated across the Plains today, a more pronounced low continues to sit over Manitoba.
It appears temperatures will fall slow enough after the precipitation moves out of the area that flash freeze potential will be limited, but will have to monitor bridges and overpasses for icing for any wet spots that remain after sunset. The high will be slow to shift east and with continued light winds, lows will reach well down into the 20s once again.
636 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Key Messages: - A cold front continues to move through the region this afternoon.
738 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 (Rest of today through Friday) High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida through the end of the week as it gradually pushes into the western Atlantic. A moderate easterly wind flow this afternoon and this evening will gradually veer to the southeast on Friday as high pressure pushes further into the western Atlantic. Highs will rise into the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas and into the mid 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
(This afternoon through Friday) Nice, quiet weather ends today as high pressure ridge axis slides east of the area tonight as front approaches from the west.
Cold front is at our doorstep this evening, analyzed just west of Galesburg and Rushville at 7 pm. Temperatures remain in the low-mid 50s at 7 pm over a good chunk of the forecast area, but will be taking a nosedive soon as the front moves through. By sunrise, wind chills in the teens will prevail west of I-57 with air temperatures dropping below freezing. along with a surface cold front. Friday night, a vort lobe is expected to be rotating around the main upper low over Lake Superior with a reinforcing shot of cold air moving into IL at the surface.
1007 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 A cold front will approach the Ohio Valley tonight leading to widespread rainfall and mild temperatures. The cold front rushes through the area on Friday bringing anomalously cold air for the weekend.
309 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Satellite imagery shows cyclonic northerly flow with trof axis moving from eastern MT into the western Dakotas. Once the light snow showers taper off in our east tomorrow, late Friday and Friday night will be dry as weak upper level ridge builds from the west. Highs tomorrow will range from only the lower 20s near the Dakotas border to lower 40s over the west.
-Bernhart Previous Discussion: Atmospheric Setup: Although the upper-level trough axis has shifted into western ND, light snow showers are still lingering in eastern MT.
915 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 A crossing cold front will return widespread rain to the region late tonight and Friday. Meanwhile, the aforementioned low pressure undergoing cyclogenesis across the Great Lakes, will eventually pull a cold front across the area through Friday afternoon. The cold frontal passage is expected to clear the eastern ridges by early Friday evening, and in its wake, the downward transport of strong wind from ~850mb should to mix to the surface. Peak gusts will likely remain below advisory criteria across the lowlands, but the highest ridges may near that threshold.
The forecast area is under high pressure and a strong split flow aloft. Another warm spring day is in store on Friday with highs in the 40s over the mountains and 50s in the lower elevations.
Precipitation may change to light snow or flurries across the higher elevations before ending. Strong cold air advection behind frontal passage will drop temperatures at or below freezing across much of the area. Jet dynamics enhancing fronto-genetic lift along a strong cold front. Left over precipitation will change to light snow showers or fluries across mainly the higher terrain.
158 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 A cold front will approach the Ohio Valley tonight leading to widespread rainfall and mild temperatures. The cold front rushes through the area on Friday bringing anomalously cold air for the weekend.
1138 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 (The rest of tonight) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong cold front will be moving east of the area within the next hour or so.
06Z observations show an upper low in the Canadian prairie Providences and an associated trough extending through the central plains. Tonight another lobe of cold around the upper low in Canada will dive south through the northern and central plains and the leading edge of the arctic air should arrive into central and northern Kansas by daybreak.
A ridge building over the region will keep the weather mild for the next few days. With daytime highs well above freezing and morning lows below freezing, the daily melt refreeze cycle will continue to produce icy patches.
The marine observation platforms average 15 to 17 knots, while an ASCAT from last evening estimated SFC winds in the low 20s across the Straits of Florida. Despite the south of east fetch, dewpoints are in the upper 50s, highlighting the remarkable survival of the continental- polar air mass as it curved down and around the subtropical ridge. Meanwhile, a cold front is nearing the mouth of the Mississippi. This front is the leading edge of a trough-ridge-trough complex noted on water vapor imagery marching east- southeast through the western half of the CONUS. The approaching baroclinic zone, the slab of tropical moisture spreading north across western Cuba, and the soon-to-be phased positively tilted trough reaching deep into Mexico, all will set the stage for a window of unsettled weather and accumulating rains.
1237 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Key Messages: - A cold front continues to move through the region this afternoon.
1119 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 A strong cold front moved across the region today bringing with it sharp decreases in temperatures and a stout northerly wind shift. Aloft, while a trough axis rotated across the Plains today, a more pronounced low continues to sit over Manitoba.
405 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 A cold front will sweep across the region this morning. Cold front can be seen from western Indiana into southern Illinois.
336 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Widespread rain is expected ahead of an afternoon cold front. Colder and windy conditions are anticipated this weekend as an upper level low moves across the Great Lakes. A deepening upper level low will dig into the western Great Lakes this morning. Ahead of this low, a plume of moisture will spread across the area. Driving this plume eastward is an impressive mid March cold front.
400 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Weak low pressure will pass through the region today and tonight with rain showers and some mountain snow showers.
200 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Cold front will push through the forecast area tonight with widespread showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, especially in the western area. Some mid and upper level cloudiness, ahead of an approaching system, along with some wind, will provide much warmer min temps tonight compared to the last few nights, in the 40s. By early Friday morning, a cold front will be well to the west of the area extending into the Deep South. High pressure will have shifted off the coast with upper ridge axis shifting leading to deep moisture increase across the area.
The upper low is expected to move southeast across the Canadian border into Minnesota today while a ridge moves over the Western CONUS. This evening through the overnight hours, a weak cold front will move over the area cooling us down just a little more with overnight lows in the teens and wind chills dropping into the single digits. High temperatures are currently forecast to be slightly cooler thanks to the overnight cold front with values in to the upper 30s to lower 40s.
High temperatures across the Northern Rockies will remain below normal to end the work week, with most locations reaching the low 20s to near 40 degrees.
Upper level ridging was noted over the western U. with another upper low south of the Aleutian Islands. Surface obs showed high pressure stretching from south TX through the Great Plains. Forecast soundings from the RAP and NAM show low level lapse rates steepening up to the dry adiabatic lapse rate by early afternoon as an axis of relatively high moisture moves through northeast KS ahead of another cold front.
(Today) A mid-level trof axis was exiting off to the east of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early this morning. the mid-level trof is expected to continue to move off to the east with cloud cover becoming more scattered over the CWA.
(Today and tonight) The cool air mass in place across Oklahoma and northern Texas will be augmented by another cooler air mass Friday night.
330 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 A sharp cold front has punched through the Upper Mississippi Valley region, dropping temps locally into the 20s. Area roadways, especially untreated pavement, bridges, and overpasses, may become slick overnight as temps continue to fall through the 20s.
1052 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Motions in the satellite imagery indicate low level high pressure building over the Great Basin with an upper level trough associated with the jet to the south shifting east out of the Great Basin towards the Divide. A bit of mid level vorticity squeezed under the ridge building over the upper Great Basin to combine with the diurnal heating to kick off a few convective cells over the San Juan Mountains this afternoon.
222 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the western Great Lakes region. A developing low is located across central SD, with a cold front stretching northwest across western ND into southwest Canada. Upper level analysis shows trough now over the upper midwest, with low pressure over southern portions of Lake Winnipeg moving south-southeastward. Upper jet to the west- southwest of the low extends across eastern MT into the western Dakotas. Chances for snow showers will continue through a good portion of today as the cold front slides south through the forecast area and the upper low tracks across eastern ND into the upper midwest.
Another cold front will move south across the region tonight ushering in much colder air with a widespread hard freeze anticipated. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the teens across our central KS counties while those near the OK state line see lows in the low 20s.
For the rest of today, much cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front that moved through with highs in the 50s, and mostly cloudy skies.
Strong northwest winds will develop this evening behind a strong cold front. This is along and ahead of a strong cold front that will move across the area early this evening. Skies are forecast to remain sunny through the day, with high temperatures ranging from the upper 20s along the Highway 20 corridor to the upper 30s south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line.
A cold front is currently moving south across the forecast area and bringing some light snow showers to the eastern half of the forecast area.
121 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (Rest of today through Friday) High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida through the end of the week as it gradually pushes into the western Atlantic. A moderate easterly wind flow this afternoon and this evening will gradually veer to the southeast on Friday as high pressure pushes further into the western Atlantic. Highs will rise into the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas and into the mid 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.