Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures had already moderated efficiently into the lower 40s at several sites including DDC as of 11 am, but expect temperatures to plateau this afternoon as a weak cold front increases north winds to 10-20 mph over the melting snow. Weak cold front will clear the Oklahoma border by 6 pm, with 12z NAM depicting strong 1037-1038 mb surface ridging building into SW KS overnight. Some patchy radiation fog is possible over the northeast zones near the ridge axis, perhaps with melting snow adding moisture to the boundary layer, but model signals on this are weak.
1204 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 Satellite imagery early this morning is showing high cirrus streaming across the area in west southwest upper flow at the same time a trough is dropping south out of Canada. Latest runs of the NAM/GFS continue to show the upper trough dropping southeast through the Midwest and Great Lakes today with the attendant cold front moving through the CWA this afternoon. This will be a dry frontal passage as there will be weak ascent associated with the upper trough and the atmosphere will be exceptionally dry with not much clouds expected.
238 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 A cold front is currently moving into northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Temperatures behind the cold front fall pretty sharply from the 40s down into the 20s and teens. Gusty northerly flow behind the front will diminish on Friday and the wind will become light and variable by Friday afternoon as the axis of the cold high pressure moves across the Mid Mississippi Valley. The cold start to the morning along with the morning's northerly flow will keep highs below freezing for most locations in spite of a sunny sky and strong insolation (the exception will be far southeast Missouri).
139 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 High pressure will build across the intermountain West through the weekend, resulting in a warming trend and a return to above normal temperatures.
(This evening through Friday) Clearing from west to east is currently seen on satellite imagery as an upper trough departs the area. Weak northerly flow ahead of an upper ridge combined with clearing skies and calm surface winds will allow for colder low temperatures Friday morning, potentially falling below 20 on the Caprock. Sunny skies will continue Friday under the ridge and temperatures will likely rise slightly above guidance mean into the upper 50s as surface winds gradually increase out of the southwest.
1004 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 A ridge of high pressure running west to east through Kentucky will linger there through the day. A strong cold front will pass south through the region this evening.
In fact, many locales may stay slightly above freezing.
The exception was across Bolivar and northern Sunflower counties where temperatures will remain below freezing for another hour or two. By noon the whole CWA will be back above freezing and no additional freezing rain is expected in our CWA through tonight as the rain is expected to end before temperatures drop back below freezing by Friday morning. Light rain is occuring across much of the area this morning, with some light freezing rain over the extreme Northwest Delta. As temperatures climb above freezing over the Delta by mid morning, the light freezing rain will become all rain. The rain will continue into tonight, before beginning to taper off from northwest to southeast, as the main upper trough axis moves across the area.
1110 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 Winter headlines have already expired west of I-35 where temperatures exceeded freezing around 900 AM. Temperatures east of OKC are expected to reach above freezing around noon. (Today and tonight) A mid and upper level trough to our west, will move across the southern Plains today. This will result in areas of light freezing rain, mainly across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas this morning. By noon, the northwest 1/2 of Oklahoma should see abundant sunshine with temperatures well above freezing. Early this evening, a cold front will move into northern Oklahoma and will push across a majority of the state by early Friday morning.
1201 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 Allowed our Winter Weather advisory to expire as planned at 9AM (This afternoon through Friday) Current air temperatures are all above freezing at the top of the hour and with all rain drops symbols except for Mineola and El Dorado with snow and unknown respectively. The upper trough will swing overhead tonight and push out the chance for additional rainfall, but today we will continue with our current flood watch with the day one excessive still focused across our area.
A ridge will transition over the area today bringing continued dry conditions. A trough off the West Coast will slowly approach the region, and winds will slowly increase into Friday. Temperatures may reach the low 50s across the Snake Plain on Friday ahead of the next system, this will be addressed in the afternoon forecast.
High pressure building over the region will result in continued dry conditions with a warming trend to above normal going into the weekend.
Cold and rainy conditions give way to the beginning of a The upper trough will track farther east, causing any lingering showers this afternoon to taper off from west to east by this evening. Drying and clearing conditions area expected to unfold over the area tonight, helping overnight low temperatures remain cold and below freezing. Friday begins the warming trend into the weekend as high pressure begins to build over the area.
Tonight through Friday night Quiet weather will persist for the next two days as region will continue to be under the influence of an upper level ridge. High pressure ridge will continue to transit NV tonight through Friday afternoon before exiting late Friday.
On Friday, the ridge of arctic high pressure will shift east across the region. Friday Night Through Thursday Arctic high pressure will quickly shift east of the region Friday night, with strong WAA/isentropic lift bringing a chance of light snow (with less than an inch of accumulation) to northern WI.
A low pressure wave currently across east central GA will continue to move away from the area. A second low pressure system across the north central GOMEX will move east along the stalled boundary tonight, finally moving the front well south of the CWA. QPF amounts continue to decrease with the system, but the highest amounts remain across the Interstate 20 corridor, with around an inch expected. Wind gusts up to 30 will be possible at the higher elevations.
1245 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 A ridge of high pressure running west to east through Kentucky will linger there through the day. A strong cold front will pass south through the region this evening.
The pleasant boating conditions of the last few days will be going away tonight into Friday as a cold front approaches and moves across the waters during Friday.
(Through Tonight) A cold front is moving towards our area this evening, bringing showers and scattered thunderstorm potential through the night.
1126 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 (Today through Friday Night ) Extensive plume of moisture ahead of a SW US trough continues this morning with precip streaming from south Texas northeastward into the Ohio Valley. With sfc temperatures remaining around or just below freezing, nearly all of this precip locally is falling as FZRA. Marginally freezing temps in the 30-32 F range have been in place overnight across the southeast half of the state where the majority of the precip has occurred. While FZRA has been widespread and moderate to heavy at times, road impacts have remained primarily limited to bridges/overpasses. H500 trough located to the SW will continue to push east of the area by Friday morning. With NW flow in place and sfc ridging just north of the region, cool temperatures and dry conditions are expected through Friday night.
1142 AM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 The warming trend continues across the area through the weekend as a ridge builds across the area. The Wind River and Green River Basins will continue to stay cooler as the inversion and light winds keep the colder air trapped in.
An upper level trough will guide this colder air mass into the region, dropping our temperatures briefly below seasonal normals with Friday morning lows in the single digits north of Interstate 70 and in the lower teens along and south of Interstate 70. Weak mixing from the high pressure center will keep Friday afternoon highs cooler in the mid to upper 20s ranging into the upper 30s. However, as this high slides farther east, WAA will begin to build back into the region as winds turn from the south, closing the window of opportunity for additional cold air to impact our forecast area for the time being.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 31 43 25 50 / 60 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 29 38 22 49 / 30 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 28 38 22 47 / 20 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 35 19 47 / 10 0 0 0.
1138 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 (Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Warmer Today - Isolated to scattered showers will end by this afternoon Light rain across the area overnight will continue to diminish from west to east this morning as isentropic lift is replaced by downglide and an upper disturbance moves eastward of the region. Southwesterly flow aloft today will be replaced by weak ridging tomorrow. Highs today will range in the 50s under clearing skies and tonight lows will be similar to last night near freezing to around 40 degrees as partly cloudy skies will lead to more efficient radiational cooling.
1245 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 The forecast remains on track this morning as a deep ridge of high pressure remains in place over the Florida Peninsula. (Today through Friday) Conditions for the start of the short term period will continue to be dry and sunny thanks to a deep ridge of high pressure extending across the Florida peninsula. The influence of this trough will allow for a low-level mass response that features veering winds out of the south-southwest allowing for persistent warm air advection to be realized over South Florida through Friday.
233 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 Gusty northerly winds begin to decrease after sunset and begin to veer around to the southeast as high pressure builds in. Winds will increase again Friday afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens on the back side of the high pressure. Areas at higher elevation, especially along Buffalo ridge, may be able to tap into higher winds above the strong inversion, and could see gusts exceeding 30 mph briefly in the late afternoon/evening. Winds will slowly decrease over night as the high pressure moves off to the east. Lows will be in the single digits east of I-29, slightly warmer to the west.
1039 AM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 Across the Tri State region this morning, skies are clear with high pressure over the Plains region. Temperatures are ranging in the teens west into the lower 20s east, and winds are westerly around 10 mph. This ridge will be in place over the area Friday, right into the first half of the weekend. At the surface, high pressure over the cwa will give way to a backdoor cold front that pushes south and east into the area.
Weak winds will make it to tough to scour out the cold air in the low lying areas. It's another chilly morning today, with the caveat of the foothills and adjacent far western plains where a lingering downsloping breeze has maintained milder temperatures just a few degrees below freezing. In the high country, satellite imagery depicts a tongue of low clouds straddling the Continental Divide and areas just west, courtesy of remnant moisture under the northwesterly flow aloft. For today, expect milder conditions as a ridging pattern begins to encroach on the state and skies remain clear. Given ~2-3C of warming at 700mb, continued subsidence, clear skies, and yesterday's warmer temperatures, NBM seemed much too low, particularly for the urban corridor. A bit trickier to pinpoint the temperature trend for the high mountain valleys.
1134 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 Winter headlines have already expired west of I-35 where temperatures exceeded freezing around 900 AM. Temperatures east of OKC are expected to reach above freezing around noon. (Today and tonight) A mid and upper level trough to our west, will move across the southern Plains today. This will result in areas of light freezing rain, mainly across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas this morning. By noon, the northwest 1/2 of Oklahoma should see abundant sunshine with temperatures well above freezing. Early this evening, a cold front will move into northern Oklahoma and will push across a majority of the state by early Friday morning.
Temperatures will be on a downward trend late this afternoon as the arctic cold front continues to shift southeastward across the area. Expect high temperatures Friday afternoon to range from the single digits north, to the low to mid teens south.
Tonight, clouds will move out and a reinforcing push of cold air will drop temps to the lower 20s area wide by daybreak Friday.
A cold front has swept across the region today with arctic air rushing in from the northwest. In the wake of the cold front a strong pressure gradient has set up over the Northland leading to windy conditions. Model guidance suggests some low level clouds may be in the vicinity of the Red River Valley tonight and could lead to warmer temperatures across our western and northwestern areas.
High pressure building over the region will result in a quick warmup through the weekend.
112 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 Across the Tri State region this morning, skies are clear with high pressure over the Plains region. Temperatures are ranging in the teens west into the lower 20s east, and winds are westerly around 10 mph. This ridge will be in place over the area Friday, right into the first half of the weekend. At the surface, high pressure over the cwa will give way to a backdoor cold front that pushes south and east into the area.
HRRR forecast soundings show more realistic moisture profiles at LWA than the NAM and GFS with the lower levels saturated through the DGZ and an inversion height above 5 kft.
215 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 Strong cold front has pushed through much of the dvn cwa but the true arctic airmass lags behind by several hours. Ahead of the front, temperatures have pushed into the lower 40s while in our far nw counties readings have dropped into the upper teens.
200 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 (Issued 200 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023) Tonight through Friday night: Main concern will be frigid wind chills overnight in the wake of an arctic cold front. The ridge axis will be transient and be off to our east Friday night.
Allowed our Winter Weather advisory to expire as planned at 9AM (This afternoon through Friday) Current air temperatures are all above freezing at the top of the hour and with all rain drops symbols except for Mineola and El Dorado with snow and unknown respectively. The upper trough will swing overhead tonight and push out the chance for additional rainfall, but today we will continue with our current flood watch with the day one excessive still focused across our area.
(Tonight) A broad area of light to moderate rain continues across the area this afternoon ahead of a cold front that will be slowly pushing SE through the Tennessee Valley. This will usher in a cooler and drier air mass by early Friday morning as temperatures fall into the mid to upper 20s. We may also have to watch for a few instances of black ice late tonight as temperatures drop below the freezing mark -- though the breezy winds will also help to dry the roads of any residual moisture.
(This evening through Friday) A look at water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low across the Desert Southwest yesterday now ejecting across the Southern Plains as a more open-wave trough. Conditions improve from northwest to southeast later tonight and into tomorrow morning as the trough axis moves to our east.
Temperatures have remained in the mid 40s for most of the region including the higher elevations and it remains likely that precip will push out before freezing temps arrive across N. A low pressure wave currently across east central GA will continue to move away from the area. A second low pressure system across the north central GOMEX will move east along the stalled boundary tonight, finally moving the front well south of the CWA. QPF amounts continue to decrease with the system, but the highest amounts remain across the Interstate 20 corridor, with around an inch expected. Wind gusts up to 30 will be possible at the higher elevations.
540 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 A strong cold front will drop south through the region late tonight.
A ridge of high pressure will continue building over the Northern Rockies through the overnight hours tonight. The building ridge will allow for valley inversions to strengthen and increasing the threat for locally dense fog and low stratus tomorrow morning, particularly the Flathead Valley, south to Missoula. The ridge will begin to flatten and break down later Friday, as a low pressure system moves inland along the Pacific Northwest coast.
* Arctic cold front to pass through this evening. An Arctic cold front stretches from central Michigan back into northern Illinois and southwestward to near the Kansas City metro area this afternoon. While the low level flow orientation suggests that lake enhanced cloudiness will make its way into the northeastern third to half of the area, a significant lack of moisture suggests that any lake effect snowfall should dissipate prior to crossing into northeastern portions of central Indiana, and will maintain a dry forecast throughout the short term.
537 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 (Tonight) A broad area of light to moderate rain continues across the area this afternoon ahead of a cold front that will be slowly pushing SE through the Tennessee Valley. This will usher in a cooler and drier air mass by early Friday morning as temperatures fall into the mid to upper 20s. We may also have to watch for a few instances of black ice late tonight as temperatures drop below the freezing mark -- though the breezy winds will also help to dry the roads of any residual moisture.
Dry conditions and warmer temperatures will continue across the region today through tonight and tomorrow morning. A weak trough will move through the area tomorrow morning and bring light rain to our northern county warning area alongside region wide cloud cover.
518 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 A sharp cold front will bring a quick shot of very cold air to our region tonight and Friday.
151 PM PST Thu Feb 2 2023 A weak low pressure system will bring a few light snow showers and gusty winds late tonight through Friday in the Sierra.
213 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 Upper level ridge will reside over the Central Rockies through tonight and Friday. Airmass underneath the ridge will be mild and dry. Airmass will be warmer Friday with the ridge axis passing across the state. Highs should be 6 to 12 degrees warmer than today for most areas.
828 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 A sharp cold front will bring a quick shot of very cold air to our region tonight and Friday.
The upper low seen on water vapor over N TX rolling over the frozen metroplex below, still with temps around the freezing mark and likely dangerous travel conditions until tomorrow. Fog will be patchy and generally light with near saturation for this evening and then with clearing, frost is possible or maybe some freezing fog for bridges and overpasses, caution is quite reasonable from midnight to sun up. It depends on the spreads, but as high pressure arriving with the lower dew points will be pouring in to our area. Warmer SE winds will arrive for the weekend, but still a chilly and frosty start expected Friday night.
Heading into the afternoon, as the high pressure pushes out, the gradient will tighten and increase the southerly winds across the area.
Cloud cover has increased across NorCal this afternoon ahead of the approaching trough that is currently spinning near 40N,135W. As this trough continues to move northeast, marginal moisture associated with a weak and decaying AR will move inland across the PacNW, brushing NorCal in the process. Snow amounts of 3 to 8 inches are expected to be limited to the higher elevations of the Coastal Range and southern Cascades, producing limited impacts.
254 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 Key Messages: 1) Dry conditions and warmer/above average temperatures are expected for southern Colorado tonight and tomorrow. A ridge of high pressure is expected to continue to slowly push eastward over the region. This ridge will keep synoptic descent in place, which is unfavorable for precipitation development. The previously mentioned ridge of high pressure is expected to continue to slowly push eastward during the day, with a weak short wave behind it. With that said though, the primary synoptic influence will remain the ridge of high pressure. As for temperatures, they are expected to be much warmer than previous days this week.
424 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 The warming trend continues across the area through the weekend as a ridge builds across the area. The Wind River and Green River Basins will continue to stay cooler as the inversion and light winds keep the colder air trapped in.
310 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 Warmer temperatures advance across the area toward the northeast, leaving some colder temperatures lingering across portions of north central Montana.
438 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 Upper level ridge will reside over the Central Rockies through tonight and Friday. Airmass underneath the ridge will be mild and dry. Airmass will be warmer Friday with the ridge axis passing across the state. Highs should be 6 to 12 degrees warmer than today for most areas.
533 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 A cold front is currently moving into northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Temperatures behind the cold front fall pretty sharply from the 40s down into the 20s and teens. Gusty northerly flow behind the front will diminish on Friday and the wind will become light and variable by Friday afternoon as the axis of the cold high pressure moves across the Mid Mississippi Valley. The cold start to the morning along with the morning's northerly flow will keep highs below freezing for most locations in spite of a sunny sky and strong insolation (the exception will be far southeast Missouri).
623 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 High pressure over central ND will move east over the RRV around 06z-09z and then be near a Baudette-Bemidji axis at 12z Fri. Heading into the afternoon, as the high pressure pushes out, the gradient will tighten and increase the southerly winds across the area.
Due southerly or slightly southwesterly surface winds between 5 and 10 knots (more SSW particularly with northern extent) should prevail across the region associated with an approaching weak cold front. A cold front is located to the north of the area and will move into the region during the day tomorrow. The main forcing associated with the front and trough will be displaced to the north and expect the rainfall associated with this system will be light.
Strong cold front has pushed through much of the dvn cwa but the true arctic airmass lags behind by several hours. Ahead of the front, temperatures have pushed into the lower 40s while in our far nw counties readings have dropped into the upper teens.
A mean-layered ridge controlled the Key West weather late this afternoon and tonight by promoting mainly clear to partly cloudy conditions. The remainder of the evening will be tranquil, with overnight temperatures in the lower to mid 70s and east to southeast winds near 10 mph. Breezes will slacken late tonight and Friday due to a cold front that will sweep through the southeast and near the Keys coastal waters on Friday.
615 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 (This evening through Friday) 500 MB trough axis will move eastward across the northern Gulf Coast tonight and into GA/SC Friday. High pressure will be in control Friday night as subsidence results in mostly clear skies. The influence of weak ridging will nudge temperatures back to near normal throughout the weekend.