Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Discussion: Surface observations show a cold front draped southwest to northeast across central KY and TN. Isolated stronger gusts will be possible in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains and southwest Virginia.
Likewise, afternoon temperatures will mirror the strongest winds, with highs in the low/mid 60s west of US-83 decreasing to the low/mid 50s near central KS. These features are progged to move east through the day Saturday, sending a cold front southward through our area at some point during the day.
911 PM MST Thu Mar 9 2023 Temperatures have trended cooler this evening, especially out east where skies are still clear. The HRRR continues to run much warmer for tomorrow than the rest of the of the models. However, it should be a little warmer with highs approaching 40s degrees, and should be dry.
The upper trough supporting this low, however, will take another 12 hours or so to move through which means that the snow won't end until this afternoon, although the snow rates will decrease as lift within the DGZ decreases.
The HRRR continues to run much warmer for tomorrow than the rest of the of the models. However, it should be a little warmer with highs approaching 40s degrees, and should be dry.
Winds are more easterly with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s to the north of this feature, while light southerly flow is resulting in warmer and more humid conditions across the majority of our area with temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s and surface dewpoints also generally ranging from around 63-66 over interior areas and in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees along the immediate coast.
Finally, there is low confidence for some patchy freezing rain tonight over parts of northwestern into west-central SD. The latest water vapor images and 500-mb height analysis shows a potent upper low spinning off the WA/OR Coast. The surface pressure gradient will tighten, leading to strong/gusty southerly winds and warmer air. Thus, have opted for a warning over southern Campbell County where confidence is relatively the highest. Tonight, the upper low will move over northeastern MT/western ND, sending a cold front across most of the area that will switch the winds to northwest and bringing some colder air back into the CWA. This will result in scattered light snow/rain, with perhaps some light freezing rain.
Today, highs are expected to peak again into the lower to mid 80s.
Temperatures will be cooler, especially for areas along and north of Highway 190.
(Today) A dry day is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Today as high pressure prevails across the area.
This will help to moderate morning lows, keeping temperatures well above freezing. Drier air will build in by this afternoon as winds switch to southerly, bringing partial clearing and slightly warmer temperatures into the mid 60s.
Today, a frontal boundary associated with the tailend of an upper level trough moving into the Northeast approaches the region. The highest probability for rain remains north and along the I-4 corridor at this time.
- Another round of widespread snow this weekend with the highest accumulation in central Minnesota and to the north.
PoPs wl cont to dcrs fm the NW this mrng as an asscod mid lvl trof swings thru the region and eventually pushes the fnt bndry towards the Gulf Coast and stalls out.
Forecast soundings depict saturation in the low levels but dendritic growth zone saturation looks sketchy. In addition to initial moisture deficiency, forecast sounding depicting deep isothermal layer near freezing.
417 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2023 (Today through Saturday) Cold front will move through the CWA today, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass. The cold front is currently back across eastern MS. with a warm front across southern AL. The cold front looks to move through most of the CWA today becoming more west-east oriented by the early evening. Thunder may have trouble making its way east during the early morning, but should become more probable along and just ahead of the cold front later this morning and during the afternoon. temperatures in the lower to middle 30s are expected across much of northern GA overnight.
652 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2023 Rain and snow today with crossing low pressure. All precipitation will change to snow this evening as the low begins to exit the region.
Across lower elevations, there are some low clouds developing under the influence of Denver cyclone and already stratus from Broomfield northward towards Fort Collins. For Saturday, a strong zonal flow will remain over CO as an upper level trough moves across Montana and into the Dakotas.
Temperatures were in the lower 30s and roads were partially covered. Tonight: Light winds in the low levels and lack of mixing will keep low clouds hanging around. Details: This weekend: Another storm system will be impacting the dvn cwa as a closed low tracks from Alberta to northern MN. A deepening upper trough will provide large-scale ascent with mixing ratios of 2-3 g/kg.
509 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 High pressure will return for today through tonight, with dry weather and cooler than average temperatures forecast. As the next weather system takes shape over the Plains Saturday and heads east, rain chances will return, mainly in the afternoon with the highest chance over SEMO, and little or no chance from the Evansville Tri-State south across the KY Pennyrile region.
Expect slightly cooler high temperatures today ranging in the upper 50s to upper 60s, as prolonged cloud cover may hinder temperatures from reaching into the 70s today.
As a strong Pacific Cold Front pushes through the region, snow levels will once again crash to valley floors. Saturday will remain cooler than normal with afternoon snow shower activity.
Expect highs from the upper 40s at Hays to the lower 60s at Elkhart under partly cloudy skies. As the aforementioned upper level trough traverses eastward, a cold front will pass across western Kansas Saturday.
549 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 (Today through Saturday) A cold front will bring widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to Central Alabama today. Highs on Saturday will range from the lower to middle 60s across the north and upper 60s to lower 70s across the south.
In addition, relatively drier air in the lower levels is pivoting in, keeping rain and much of the cloud cover at bay. Dew points are also comfortably in the upper 50s to lower 60s with temperatures in the lower 70s. As it deepens a trailing cold front will approach from the north allowing winds to clock around to the west and northwest on Saturday.
(Today through Saturday) Cold front will move through the CWA today, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass. The cold front is currently back across eastern MS. with a warm front across southern AL. The cold front looks to move through most of the CWA today becoming more west-east oriented by the early evening. Thunder may have trouble making its way east during the early morning, but should become more probable along and just ahead of the cold front later this morning and during the afternoon. temperatures in the lower to middle 30s are expected across much of northern GA overnight.
527 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 (Today) A dry day is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Today as high pressure prevails across the area.
558 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 (Today through Saturday Night) Area of showers remain south of Middle Tennessee this morning as a weak cold front begins to enter the forecast area. Even though this is a "cold front", Highs will still be able to reach into the 50s although the northwest winds may make things feel a tad cooler. Some locations will flirt with the freezing mark, but do not think many spots will experience below freezing for very long or at least long enough to warrant a Freeze Warning.
The front will be moving too slowly to really have an effect on the overnight lows for much of the area, with most places remaining in the lower 60s. A weak cold front will approach the local waters today, dropping southward through the area through tonight. An approaching cold front will enter the Florida peninsula this evening, slowly moving southward through the overnight hours.
138 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2023 Scattered showers will be possible today as a low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region on Saturday.
Cold front moving through the Treasure Valley at 930 AM. Tempeatures remain above freezing however, there remains a potential for Snow Squalls as the front pushes east. LSR has been sent for the highest winds thus far with Twin Falls airport being the highest with gust to 70 MPH.
1047 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2023 Scattered showers will be possible today as a low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region on Saturday.
A small cluster of showers have developed over the lower Atchafalaya Basin, well ahead of what CAM guidance alluded to this morning. Temperatures will be cooler, especially for areas along and north of Highway 190.
This is in part to the approaching area of low pressure at the sfc, currently centered in the Mid-MS River Valley. As a result of the approaching ridge, winds will remain rather light overnight; on the order of 5mph or less. Temperatures will be chilly, dropping into the lower/middle 30s.
The large-scale pattern features a deep, broad ridge over the North American Subtropics, with mid/upper-tropospheric westerlies over most of the Gulf basin.
The fog is expected to mix out by mid-morning as winds begin to increase due to a developing surface cyclone over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
(This afternoon through Saturday Night) A cold front had moved through the area this morning leaving us with partly sunny skies and a chilly northwest wind. For tonight, chilly high pressure will continue to push into the area with clear to partly cloudy skies and decreasing winds.
Many locations will hold in the lower to mid 40s through sunrise Saturday. All guidance continues to trend faster and more aggressive with the cold front passage on Saturday, with most guidance allowing the boundary to easily clear the Oklahoma border by noon, if not sooner. Even after these modifications, some guidance is still cooler. As the aforementioned upper level trough traverses eastward, a cold front will pass across western Kansas Saturday.
1131 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 (Today through Saturday) A cold front will bring widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to Central Alabama today. Highs on Saturday will range from the lower to middle 60s across the north and upper 60s to lower 70s across the south.
Some of the warmest temperatures of the season expected for The low clouds from this morning have begun to scatter out across the area. The 850 mb thermal ridge will strengthen over the area with anomalously high temperatures for this time of year in the 21-23 deg C range.
High pressure will return for today through tonight, with dry weather and cooler than average temperatures forecast. As the next weather system takes shape over the Plains Saturday and heads east, rain chances will return, mainly in the afternoon with the highest chance over SEMO, and little or no chance from the Evansville Tri-State south across the KY Pennyrile region.
Have removed all thunder chances as more organized cold pool from earlier convection has settled in across central Georgia ahead of the cold front, which should prevent any concerns of convection through rest of the afternoon in the CWA.
A cold front moved through the area early this morning. Northeast areas will be mostly cloudy through the afternoon with temps peaking in the lower 50s while the southwest half will turn partly sunny with mid 50s. A persistent northwest wind will make it feel a little cooler. (Today through Saturday Night) Area of showers remain south of Middle Tennessee this morning as a weak cold front begins to enter the forecast area. Even though this is a "cold front", Highs will still be able to reach into the 50s although the northwest winds may make things feel a tad cooler. Some locations will flirt with the freezing mark, but do not think many spots will experience below freezing for very long or at least long enough to warrant a Freeze Warning.
1241 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2023 Rain and snow today with crossing low pressure. All precipitation will change to snow this evening as the low begins to exit the region.
(This evening through Saturday) An upper low will transition across the northern CONUS this afternoon, while a near 70 knot 500mb jet axis in the nearly zonal flow aloft approaches West Texas. The low level jet will increase during the overnight hours with 850mb winds around 40 to 50 knots. Daytime heating and mixing will give way to breezy to windy conditions across the forecast area with the higher wind speeds more confined to the High Plains through the afternoon hours. Areas off the Caprock will warm into the mid to upper 80s, while along the higher plains temperatures will remain slightly cooler in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Towards sunset, the winds will begin to diminish as the cold front quickly approaches the far Southern Texas Panhandle.
(This evening through Saturday) Strengthening lee cyclone to our west will increase southerly flow over the region tonight, bringing moisture northward into the area. The more likely scenario will be for convective development to occur along/behind the cold front as it moves southward during the evening.
In terms of temperatures, lows for tomorrow morning are expected to be in the mid 50s north to upper 60s south, and highs in the lower to mid 80s.
Freezing conditions overnight will likely lead to a flash freeze scenario and black ice on roadways. A shallow ridge builds over the region in the wake of the exiting storm system Saturday with overrunning moisture leading to light snowfall in the upslope regions of the CNTRL and ERN mountains Saturday and Saturday night.
(Now through Saturday) A few showers continue to drift to the east-southeast across the area this afternoon as a cold front sags further south. This activity will eventually drift into the Gulf this evening and the area will dry out in the wake of the cold front. Post frontal temperatures will be markedly cooler overnight as temperatures plunge into the 40s inland with mid to low 50s at the beaches.
1150 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2023 Rain and snow today with crossing low pressure. All precipitation will change to snow this evening as the low begins to exit the region.
Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures expected tonight.
(Rest of today through Saturday) A weak cold front will be moving down the peninsula throughout the day arriving this evening/overnight.
A nearly vertically stacked low pressure system will continue moving across the region this afternoon and evening. A cold front will also be diving south and east during the afternoon hours, leading to vigorous snow showers. Behind the cold front, high resolution models show lingering banded snow showers through midday Saturday, especially in the higher terrain.
117 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2023 Rain and snow today with crossing low pressure. All precipitation will change to snow this evening as the low begins to exit the region.
It is a glorious late-winter day in the fabulous Florida Keys, with mostly sunny, rain-free skies, gentle southeasterly breezes, and mild, not-too-humid weather, with current air temperatures near 80F and dewpoint temperatures in the lower 60s. A broad and deep large-scale ridge and associated subsidence dominate the large-scale weather pattern across southern Florida and adjacent coastal waters.
Key Messages: * Freezing drizzle, drizzle, and light snow expected across portions of the area tonight into Saturday morning with light rain possible Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.
623 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2023 (Rest of today through Saturday) A weak cold front will be moving down the peninsula throughout the day arriving this evening/overnight.
932 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2023 An upper level disturbance will begin to exit the region tonight and high pressure will briefly build into the area for Saturday.
646 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2023 An upper level disturbance will begin to exit the region tonight and high pressure will briefly build into the area for Saturday.
615 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) A cold front had moved through the area this morning leaving us with partly sunny skies and a chilly northwest wind. For tonight, chilly high pressure will continue to push into the area with clear to partly cloudy skies and decreasing winds.
350 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 Tonight and Saturday: Temperatures tonight will fall steadily on light north winds behind a cold front that will have cleared the area to the south. Lows tonight will be noticeably cooler than we have seen recently, dropping into the 40s F. A quick turn around back toward somewhat warmer temperatures comes Saturday with highs about 5-7 degrees warmer than today: mid and upper 70s F along and south of I- 20 with mid and upper 60s F to the north. By Saturday evening, some light rain showers could begin to move into far northwestern parts of the area as warm air advection processes provide lift ahead of a trough situated to the west.
529 PM MST Fri Mar 10 2023 1) Winter Storm continues to affect Continental Divide through Saturday evening with, at times, heavy snowfall 2) Cold front drops through the plains with some rain/snow showers possible Saturday afternoon Today/Tonight. expecting gusts peaking around 60 MPH in the higher passes. A surface cold front begins to encroach on the region from the north- northeast late tonight through mid-Saturday morning but with little moisture content, at least on passage. Overnight lows drop into the low-20s west across the mountains to near or slightly above freezing east over the plains, due to better mixing and cloud cover. Continued westerly flow aloft keeps the orographically driven snows going in the high terrain though tapering off as the afternoon wears on.
213 PM MST Fri Mar 10 2023 1) Winter Storm continues to affect Continental Divide through Saturday evening with, at times, heavy snowfall 2) Cold front drops through the plains with some rain/snow showers possible Saturday afternoon Today/Tonight. expecting gusts peaking around 60 MPH in the higher passes. A surface cold front begins to encroach on the region from the north- northeast late tonight through mid-Saturday morning but with little moisture content, at least on passage. Overnight lows drop into the low-20s west across the mountains to near or slightly above freezing east over the plains, due to better mixing and cloud cover. Continued westerly flow aloft keeps the orographically driven snows going in the high terrain though tapering off as the afternoon wears on.
The cold front that pushed across the area overnight and this morning is now across the middle to north Texas coast. The cooler airmass that resulted in the wake of the front is over most of the northern part of the local area with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s across the Hill Country to 60s along the I-35 corridor and the coastal plains as of 2 pm. Clouds return this evening into Saturday morning as southerly flow returns and spreads across south central Texas as a result of a warm front pushing northward over the local area.
350 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 Key Messages: * Freezing drizzle, drizzle, and light snow expected across portions of the area tonight into Saturday morning with light rain possible Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures this weekend will remain above average, topping out each afternoon in the lower to mid 80s for most locations. In terms of temperatures, lows for tomorrow morning are expected to be in the mid 50s north to upper 60s south, and highs in the lower to mid 80s.
The mountains will still see and additions 6 inches of snowfall, with strong winds continuing to impact the higher elevations.
401 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2023 An upper level disturbance will begin to exit the region tonight and high pressure will briefly build into the area for Saturday.
Saturday's highs will be warmer than todays, with highs in the 40s. They are quite saturated and are below freezing everywhere but right at the surface. WAA will be the driving force for this swath of precipitation as a double barrel low pressure system passes with one low just to the south of central and southeastern Illinois and the other north of Illinois.
736 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2023 Precipitation will continue to change to snow this evening as low pressure begins to exit the region.
959 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2023 Update Clearing of the low cloud deck has been progressing south this evening, with several areas north of I-96 now seeing partly cloudy conditions.
The gradient over the region due to high pressure east and a lee- side trough/front west is now bringing southerly flow area-wide w/ gusts topping off in the 30-40 mph range.
549 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2023 Ahead of a cold front, an east-west oriented line of showers and storms is currently situated over SE GA and approaching the FL/GA state border this afternoon. Meanwhile, due to pre-frontal troughing, another scattered line of storms has been progressing along the I-10 corridor with a couple being severe near Tallahassee, FL. Drier, cooler post- frontal northwesterly flow develops.
529 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 Tonight and Saturday: Temperatures tonight will fall steadily on light north winds behind a cold front that will have cleared the area to the south. Lows tonight will be noticeably cooler than we have seen recently, dropping into the 40s F. A quick turn around back toward somewhat warmer temperatures comes Saturday with highs about 5-7 degrees warmer than today: mid and upper 70s F along and south of I- 20 with mid and upper 60s F to the north. By Saturday evening, some light rain showers could begin to move into far northwestern parts of the area as warm air advection processes provide lift ahead of a trough situated to the west.
The strong cold front has moved through the area. Lastly, there will be some lingering moderate snow across the Central mountains this evening with a trough moving through this area. Freezing conditions overnight will likely lead to a flash freeze scenario and black ice on roadways. A shallow ridge builds over the region in the wake of the exiting storm system Saturday with overrunning moisture leading to light snowfall in the upslope regions of the CNTRL and ERN mountains Saturday and Saturday night.
529 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Strengthening lee cyclone to our west will increase southerly flow over the region tonight, bringing moisture northward into the area. The more likely scenario will be for convective development to occur along/behind the cold front as it moves southward during the evening.
515 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 (This evening through Saturday) An upper low will transition across the northern CONUS this afternoon, while a near 70 knot 500mb jet axis in the nearly zonal flow aloft approaches West Texas. The low level jet will increase during the overnight hours with 850mb winds around 40 to 50 knots. Daytime heating and mixing will give way to breezy to windy conditions across the forecast area with the higher wind speeds more confined to the High Plains through the afternoon hours. Areas off the Caprock will warm into the mid to upper 80s, while along the higher plains temperatures will remain slightly cooler in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Towards sunset, the winds will begin to diminish as the cold front quickly approaches the far Southern Texas Panhandle.
Overnight lows in the single digits and low teens are expected north of the bridge with lows in the upper teens and low 20s across the northern lower peninsula. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures expected tonight.