Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
-Cooler today, with a return to mild conditions on Wednesday. Look for a cool start to the day with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Partly cloudy skies this morning are expected to clear by midday, with afternoon highs reaching the lower to middle 60s. Tonight, look for lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, with the low temperatures generally occurring early during the overnight period. These same southerly winds will advect warmer air into the area, with low to mid 70s expected for highs.
A cold front is pushing south across our area and should be south of I-10 by early this afternoon. In the wake of the frontal passage, considerable cloud cover is expected today, and temperatures will be appreciably cooler. For tonight, flat ridging aloft will extend from central Mexico across South Texas into the Gulf of Mexico.
Highs slightly cooler than yesterday, with breezy west winds expected during the afternoon. High temperatures today should be slightly cooler than yesterday. The largest changes will be across the interior valleys, where temperatures will generally rise into the 80s with the most interior places seeing temperatures in the low 90s. The dry cold front over northern California is now expected to move more towards the east, with the immediate result of lesser disruption to the marine layer, especially to the south of the North Bay.
(Today through Wednesday) A quasi-zonal flow pattern will set up aloft over the next couple of days as the ridge weakens, which means convection will initially remain sea breeze and diurnally driven. High temperatures will continue to be in the low to mid 90s.
1211 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Broad upper-level ridging will be the dominant feature for the short term. Temperatures across Deep South Texas are expected to reach the low 100s again Tuesday afternoon, and drop to the mid 70s overnight tonight and Tuesday night.
The low clouds/fog may push in from the southwest and/or develop across southwest Nebraska through early this morning so it bears watching but do not expect any widespread significant impact from fog this morning. With little change in the overall synoptic pattern until the axis of the upper ridge gradually pushes to our east Wednesday night, we can expect continued dry weather with only a slight moderation in temperatures as readings continue to run a bit below normal for early September.
1232 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Upstream, increased cloudiness and shower activity associated with an advancing mid/upper trough is pushing across the Ozarks and Red River Valley. /DL/ Tonight and Tuesday: An upper ridge axis will continue to bring mild temperatures and light winds for the evening. On Tuesday, an upper level trough located over the Great Lakes with an associated frontal boundary continues to move into the ArkLaMiss region throughout the day Tuesday. The highest chances for widespread rain and storms is Wednesday but after that, chances decrease each day.
1118 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2023 19Z analysis shows an upper ridge building over the region from the west. Key Messages - Quiet weather through Wednesday afternoon - Upper trough brings PoPs back to CWA Weds night through Fri Tonight through Wednesday afternoon, the upper level ridge building over the region will result in a slow warming trend as the lower tropospheric thermal ridge expands into the forecast area.
Radar is quiet early this afternoon but visibly satellite imagery is showing a convective nature to the low level cumulus field. Ridging aloft looks to bring quiet weather to central and western Nebraska tonight and tomorrow, though the ridge is a bit noisy with a series of weak short waves cresting the ridge and moving over the region. Highs tomorrow will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal with afternoon temperatures peaking in the low to mid 70s. Tuesday night and Wednesday will feature similar scenarios with the axis of the upper ridge still to our west keeping us with fairly benign weather and cool but moderating temperatures. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement in breaking down the upper ridge the upper ridge over the western US as a trof moves across southern Canada.
1146 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Cooler weather is expected the rest of the week as a cold front arrives tonight.
Then, scattered showers and storms should begin to develop with the highest chances after 19Z, pushing east and inland through the evening due to sea breeze.
226 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A cold front currently making passage across the region will be southeast of the entire area by sunrise. An upper level trough axis is lagging behind the fropa, with it's passage expected across the region today. The highest chance for rain will be across southeast MO and southern IL through about mid morning. A drier and cooler Canadian airmass will build into the region with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 50s tonight.
148 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 We'll have a brief visit from a ridge of high pressure overnight and for the first half of Tuesday. A cold front will push through the region Tuesday night and early Wed. Dry, pleasant weather will follow as Canadian high pressure builds into the region for the second half of the week and much of the weekend. Have nudged sky cover up some in the NE where progs have higher mstr in the lowest 3kft overnight. The focus for Tuesday turns to an approaching cold front over the Grt Lks. All guidance pushes the cold front and plume of deepest moisture east of the forecast area by Wednesday. However, a deepening upstream trough could support a few post-frontal showers, mainly across the southeast counties.
The cold front has certainly moved through the area now with moderate and gusty northeast winds advecting in cooler temperatures.
Meanwhile, a cold front, associated with the parent low in the Great Lakes, is moving into the Midsouth and stretches to central Texas. During the day today, the second, stronger cold front will begin to enter Central Alabama during the afternoon. By late afternoon into the early the second cold front will likely absorb the initial front and continue to slide south.
A low pressure system located near the Great Lakes has an associated cold front stretching south and west across the Ohio River Valley into the southern Plains is forecast to move east during the day. Medium chances (40-50%) for showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front are expected this afternoon and evening.
At the surface, the Atlantic high pressure ridging to the southwest across Florida will support light easterly flow and scattered afternoon storms.
- High pressure and light winds Tuesday night will produce the coolest overnight lows since May for most locations, with patchy frost possible in portions of west central Wisconsin.
Otherwise, a drier and cooler airmass wl advect into the region heading into middle part of the work week.
Temperatures will remain near normal tomorrow, with mid 70s to mid 80s in the lower elevations, and 60s to mid 70s in the mountains. Models continue to be in good agreement on the evolving weather pattern as an upper level trough has begun moving into the region. Could cover and the advection of slightly cooler air is resulting in cooler high temperatures today. The trough axis will approach Tuesday with passage overnight.
The higher terrain along the Continental Divide has been most favored today, as orographics act on the "juicier" +40 degree dewpoints. Tuesday will be an active day as the trough begins to nudge in from the west, seeing PWATs increase to above normal area-wide by the end of the evening. The uptick in at least clouds as well as showers and storms will result in much cooler temperatures across the region through the short term period.
1033 PM PDT Mon Sep 11 2023 A dry, weak cold front will move across the Bay Area this evening into Tuesday morning, which will bring breezier westerly winds and will mix out the marine layer. Slightly cooler temperatures expected Tuesday. Tonight through Tuesday: A weak dry cold front currently over far NorCal will move south with little fanfare.
Positively-tiled trough aloft is digging into the Central Plains this afternoon, while a leading cold front is responsible for rain showers moving through part of our area. This is perhaps due to a period of increased shear (40 knots) as the base of the trough nears. With large-scale troughing overhead and 850 mb temperatures near 6C, it will be downright chilly Wednesday with highs in the upper-60s (a normal high for early October).
317 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Sfc cold front is just north of the Ohio River and seems to line up fairly well with the leading edge of the mid-level cloud shield.
This will be replaced by isolated to scattered showers during the balance of the day as upper level troughing gradually works east into the region and low level moisture remains sufficient to generate weak low level instability. The upper level cold pool associated with this upper trough/low shifts over the area on Wednesday with temperatures only climbing into the lower to mid 60s for highs.
A cold front will move southeast across the Mid-South today with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected to form ahead of the front. High pressure will start to build into the region tonight bringing a period of mainly dry weather and below normal temperatures. Another cold front will move across the Mid-South over the weekend bringing another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
500 mb high pressure will remain the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA for the period, with the center of this feature located generally over western Mexico. The best chance for convection will be over the lower Texas coastal waters on Wednesday, where precipitable water values will be best.
Temperatures are primarily in the lower to middle 60s with a few of the more sheltered valleys in the upper 50s. Looking upstream, an anafront-type cold front is draped from the thumb of Michigan down to Louisville and over to Little Rock--most of the rain is falling on the back side of the boundary. Looking aloft, we find an 500H trough axis from Western Ontario southward into the Ozarks. It will be refreshingly cooler with high temperatures forecast to range from the lower to middle 70s. The cold front of the short term period will be departing to the southeast at the start of the period.
A slight lowering in afternoon high temperatures will occur for today, although might be slightly warmer towards Kern County due to less cloud cover than yesterday. So, daily maxima will reach into the lower 90's at the warmest spots, except a touch warmer towards the Indian Wells Valley, or Ridgecrest/China Lake. The upper-level ridge rebuilds for later this week.
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal Pattern Synopsis: Longwave troughing will continue to pivot across the Upper Midwest and over the Great Lakes today and tonight. Enhanced northwest flow will spread over the region today as the pressure gradient tightens behind the departing cyclone. Otherwise, high temperatures in the low 50s to low 60s are expected this afternoon with cooler lows in the 40s in store tonight.
1101 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 We'll have a brief visit from a ridge of high pressure overnight and for the first half of Tuesday. A cold front will push through the region Tuesday night and early Wed. Dry, pleasant weather will follow as Canadian high pressure builds into the region for the second half of the week and much of the weekend. Have nudged sky cover up some in the NE where progs have higher mstr in the lowest 3kft overnight. The focus for Tuesday turns to an approaching cold front over the Grt Lks. All guidance pushes the cold front and plume of deepest moisture east of the forecast area by Wednesday. However, a deepening upstream trough could support a few post-frontal showers, mainly across the southeast counties.
and Wednesday A jet streak rotating around the upper low over the Great Lakes will combine with a weak surface boundary to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across central and northcentral Wisconsin this morning and across central and east central Wisconsin this afternoon. Highs will be around ten degrees cooler than usual for this time of the year.
(Today and tonight) Much cooler and stable conditions will take hold over the area today. Surface ridging was filling in behind the cold front that moved through yesterday afternoon.
High temperatures are currently forecasted in the 70s with some locales along and north of Highway 36 in the low 80s.
1044 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A mid-level trough will move east through the Great Lakes today and tonight, with a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. As the trough moves east, cooler temperatures and drier conditions are expected through the end of the week. A broad mid-level trough to settle southeast into the Great today into tonight. Some showers and storms may still be ongoing this evening, but behind the cold front, dry conditions are expected after midnight. On Wednesday, the base of the large mid-level trough will be rotating eastward through the southern Great Lakes / northern Ohio Valley. These warmer areas in the southwestern ILN CWA will have less influence from the departing mid-level trough. Mid-level trough will be exiting the area at the beginning of the period.
523 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Weak ridging remains in the vicinity today, bringing similar conditions to yesterday. Most shower activity will be suppressed, but a few showers may still pop up across the higher elevations of the Wind River Range and southern Absarokas during peak heating, but will be very isolated in nature. Conditions begin to change on Wednesday as the next West Coast trough sweeps east across the northern Rockies. This trough will bring an increase in moisture across the state, with PW values approaching 0.
640 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 (Today and tonight) Yesterday's cold front continues to push further south into Texas, with a few showers lingering to its north across our area early this morning.
Temperatures have fallen into the lower 40s in many locations, with a few readings into the mid to upper 30s across portions of the Devils Lake Basin and northern Red River Valley. -Cooler today, with a return to mild conditions on Wednesday. Look for a cool start to the day with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Partly cloudy skies this morning are expected to clear by midday, with afternoon highs reaching the lower to middle 60s. Tonight, look for lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, with the low temperatures generally occurring early during the overnight period. These same southerly winds will advect warmer air into the area, with low to mid 70s expected for highs.
(Today through Wednesday) An upper level trough is currently swinging out of Canada across the upper/mid Mississippi Valley and will continue to rotate through the Ohio River Valley Wednesday. With the base of the trough generally north of Tennessee, the frontal boundary associated with the trough will dissipate as it reaches the CWA.
303 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Weak ridging remains in the vicinity today, bringing similar conditions to yesterday. Most shower activity will be suppressed, but a few showers may still pop up across the higher elevations of the Wind River Range and southern Absarokas during peak heating, but will be very isolated in nature. Conditions begin to change on Wednesday as the next West Coast trough sweeps east across the northern Rockies. This trough will bring an increase in moisture across the state, with PW values approaching 0.
606 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A cold front will move southeast across the Mid-South today with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected to form ahead of the front. High pressure will start to build into the region tonight bringing a period of mainly dry weather and below normal temperatures. Another cold front will move across the Mid-South over the weekend bringing another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
620 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 (Today and tonight) Much cooler and stable conditions will take hold over the area today. Surface ridging was filling in behind the cold front that moved through yesterday afternoon.
The upper high has retreated and weak troffing now covers the state. Even though today will be much sunnier than ydy the lower hgts and stronger onshore flow will bring 4 to 8 degrees of cooling today.
A cold front currently making passage across the region will be southeast of the entire area by sunrise. An upper level trough axis is lagging behind the fropa, with it's passage expected across the region today. The highest chance for rain will be across southeast MO and southern IL through about mid morning. A drier and cooler Canadian airmass will build into the region with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 50s tonight.
555 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A cold front tied to the departing low pressure system is pushing eastward and out of the area early this morning, ushering out the area of steady rainfall over the next hour or two. This will be replaced by isolated to scattered showers during the balance of the day as upper level troughing gradually works east into the region and low level moisture remains sufficient to generate weak low level instability. The upper level cold pool associated with this upper trough/low shifts over the area on Wednesday with temperatures only climbing into the lower to mid 60s for highs.
(Rest of Today) Light showers are currently moving through northwest AL along and ahead of a cold front this morning. This activity should begin to wind down with the loss of daytime heating and as the cold front clears the area.
Analysis shows basically weak height falls throughout the lower and upper atmosphere with weak height rises around 500 mb. This indicates the ridge at 500 mb got a little bit stronger providing a little more subsidence this morning. This places the center of the ridge basically right overhead. At the surface, a ridge is present north of Hurricane Lee with this ridge extending southwestward into Florida. Between Lee and this ridge is north to northeast flow resulting in marine platforms observing northeast to east winds near 5 knots and the Island Chain near 5 mph.
The deserts will be warmer today while increasing onshore flow will bring cooling for the coast into the valleys.
Moist westerly flow will result in cooler temperatures and a chance for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday, including the nighttime periods.
Meanwhile, a cold front, associated with the parent low in the Great Lakes, is moving into the Midsouth and stretches to central Texas. During the day today, the second, stronger cold front will begin to enter Central Alabama during the afternoon. By late afternoon into the early evening the second cold front will likely absorb the initial front and continue to slide south.
This morning, a vorticity lobe associated with the leading edge of the trough axis has resulted in radar returns coinciding with -45C cloud tops moving eastward through San Bernardino County.
This activity looks to develop mid day on the higher terrain. Heavy rainfall is possible once again especially across the south where the moisture values are the highest.
For tonight, there will be weak ridging over the area.
511 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2023 08z surface analysis had weak trough from central MT into south- central SD. Water vapour loop had upper level ridge building into the northern Plains.
The trough will bring a cold front with it. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the trough will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening for Lemhi County and southwest Montana. Chances for showers and thunderstorms along with breezy conditions will continue on Wednesday as the trough axis passes over the Northern Rockies.
(Tonight) Scattered showers will continue to move along and behind of a cold front tracking east across the local area this afternoon. Overnight lows will fall to the low to mid 60s across the area.
A chance of showers seems justified at first glance given the mid level trough lingering over the Great Lakes, however the smaller scale circulation shifts eastward just in time to cap off convection with trailing subsidence through the afternoon. Temperature guidance holds highs in the lower to mid 60s which is nearly 10 degrees below normal for early September and matches up with model soundings that show the boundary layer mixing into a single digit 850 mb air mass.
A surface cold front was located south of the area however residual low level moisture combined with northeast surface winds has allowed for low clouds to persist into the afternoon hours. This has kept temps down into the lower to middle 70s. Tonight through Wednesday: As the 700mb trough and 850mb isotherm trough continues to move through we will see a gradual dissipation in clouds from north to south tonight.
Scattered showers/virga have been building across SW Idaho this morning ahead of a cold front. Gusty winds this evening will develop behind a dry cold front, gusts up to 40 mph are likely north and west of Ontario. Temps will drop to just below normal following the cold front before a warming trend begins which will give us highs 5-10 degrees above normal this weekend. Dry cold front passage this evening will bring 20-30kt gusts mainly north and west of KONO.
Tonight and Wednesday The main concerns for the short term forecast will be weak thunderstorm activity across central WI as the upper low exits the region, and the potential for clearing across the north late tonight leading to frost potential. This clearing combined with light winds will create a chance for the typical low spots in the northwoods to drop towards the lower 30s and form frost. That said, there is still potential for cloud cover to stick around and keep temperatures a few degrees warmer, but given that this would be the first frost for portions of the region, leaned towards issuing the frost advisory.
Wednesday: A pleasant day in store with partly to mostly sunny skies as the the upper level trough pushes well to our east. Highs will be in the upper 60s northeast, to the lower to mid 70s southwest.
257 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Quiet weather today and Wednesday as a short ridge moves overhead. Wednesday will be warmer with 850mb temperatures much warmer than today.
1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 (Today and tonight) Yesterday's cold front continues to push further south into Texas, with a few showers lingering to its north across our area early this morning.
Weak to moderate ridging and return flow are expected for Wednesday leading to warmer high temperatures, especially west river where max Ts are expected to rise into the mid to upper 80s.
Great Lakes upper low and trough now expected to swing eastward Wed then through the Canadian Maritimes Thurs as Hurricane Lee moves well E of FL in the W Atlantic Ocean. Latest guidance showing a cold front sagging into N FL then meandering and stalling over the area late in the week. A weak area of low pressure is expected to develop along the front in the E Gulf and move over the FL Peninsula this weekend with rain chances increasing through the region especially in C and S zones.
Clouds clear from west to east tomorrow as a high pressure system builds in from the northwest.
The solid cloud deck we currently have, will remain in place during the short term, keeping the lows on the warmer side and highs on the cooler side.
158 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A mid-level trough will move east through the Great Lakes today and tonight, with a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. As the trough moves east, cooler temperatures and drier conditions are expected through the end of the week. A broad mid-level trough to settle southeast into the Great today into tonight. Some showers and storms may still be ongoing this evening, but behind the cold front, dry conditions are expected after midnight. On Wednesday, the base of the large mid-level trough will be rotating eastward through the southern Great Lakes / northern Ohio Valley. These warmer areas in the southwestern ILN CWA will have less influence from the departing mid-level trough. Mid-level trough will be exiting the area at the beginning of the period.