Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Despite a subtle "cold front" progressing across the region over the last several hours, it remains rather warm and humid early this afternoon across much of the forecast area. Thankfully, cooler/drier air across south central Canada has begun to make inroads into eastern upper with dewpoints beginning to fall into the upper 50s up that way. This cooler and less humid airmass will continue to slowly advect into the area through tonight.
/14 (Now through Saturday) An overall light and variable upper-level flow pattern continues through Saturday as our local area remains sandwiched between an upper ridge over the Four Corners region and another ridge over the western Atlantic. Current analysis also shows a mid to upper- level inverted trough located over the Florida Peninsula. Throughout the period, this trough will drift northward towards Southern Georgia before lifting northeastward across the Carolinas. 2 inches east) as well as decrease the subsident effects from the upper ridges. Highs today will reach the low to mid 90s, increasing to the mid to upper 90s for Saturday.
The flow today is more favorable for storms that develop over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains to move west to southwestward into the lower elevations. Hi-res guidance has storms beginning to develop along the higher terrain by noon, increasing in coverage thereafter. As we head into the weekend, the center of the high pressure system (currently over the AZ/NM border) begins to shift eastward, enhancing southerly flow into Arizona.
1232 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 (Rest of Today) Temps have rebounded into the lower/mid 80s for many spots from their earlier lows in the lower 70s/near 70F.
An upper level ridge will be over the Rockies through a majority of the period, with northwest flow over the Northern Plains.
(This evening through Saturday night) An upper ridge centered over the 4 Corners region which extends across the lower Mississippi River valley will remain generally in place through the period while an upper trof gradually strengthens over the interior eastern states. Lows tonight range from the lower to mid 70s well inland to the upper 70s/around 80 at the coast.
Gusty winds and cloud-to-ground lightning will be the primary concerns today, with convection favoring the higher terrain.
This should be the last day of the miserable heat as our flow aloft will shift back out of the NW and the potent ridge over TX/NM/CO will finally deteriorate.
1133 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2023 A few waves passing to our north and the wobbling high pressure to our south will cause drier air to advect into the region today. Wetting rains will be confined to the higher elevations with little to no rain in the valleys. Tomorrow the high pressure will become centered just south of the Four Corners. Weak moisture occurs in this region due to drifting of the high. Terrain-driven convection is expected over the higher elevations and overall coverage will be similar to today. Saturday evening, the high pressure is centered on the Colorado-New Mexico border with ridging extending north along the Rocky Mountains, and the low off the Pacific Northwest is just starting to climb the ridge as it moves on shore.
Arends Modest upper ridging is expected over the region today with easterly low level flow under a moderate mid level westerly flow. Ridging strengthens a bit Saturday over the area leading to somewhat warmer temps than today. There is not currently much of any signal of any short wave energy tracking across the area Saturday, but some energy is progged to round the ridge and work southeast producing some convection over and near the MT/Dakota border area. So overall, Saturday looks quieter and warmer. Look for highs Saturday to be about 3-5 degrees warmer in the 80s to lower 90s. BT Models are mostly in agreement that ridging in the mid levels will be the dominant pattern through the extended.
A northeasterly gradient increases across western Montana this evening lasting into early Saturday with gusts of 20-30 mph on the ridges and favored valleys.
While it will remain quite warm overnight, low temps a degree or so "cooler" in many locations vs what has been observed the last few nights is possible. (Tomorrow through Friday) Upper ridge will remain intact through the forecast period with very hot temperatures continuing.
Numerical models also suggest that as the low off the NW coast amplifies overnight that we will see a surge of sub-tropical up out of California into SE Idaho.
227 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Bermuda high pressure will ridge into the area through Saturday with dangerously hot and humid conditions continuing.
The main H500 high pressure system will slowly expand and become a bit stronger as the center is just east of the Four Corners Region. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms should be confined to the high terrain in CO/NM with feeble steering flow under large scale subsidence from tonight through tomorrow night.
following instability corridor into the the lower Lakes. Cooler and a bit drier air will continue to slowly filter south, likely ending the shower threat by Saturday morning. Despite a subtle "cold front" progressing across the region over the last several hours, it remains rather warm and humid early this afternoon across much of the forecast area. Thankfully, cooler/drier air across south central Canada has begun to make inroads into eastern upper with dewpoints beginning to fall into the upper 50s up that way. This cooler and less humid airmass will continue to slowly advect into the area through tonight.
Lows will be on the warmer side with temperatures in the middle to upper 70s for most areas. Upper ridging will remain centered over the Desert Southwest with a weak upper trough situated along the southeastern seaboard. Down at the surface, high pressure over the northern Gulf maintains a mostly light and mainly southerly surface flow over the area. The main thing on Saturday will be the heat as temperatures climb into the middle and upper 90s inland and the lower 90s along the immediate coast. The large upper level ridge that has been vacationing over the four corners region for what seems like a month now will slowly nose eastward bringing northwesterly flow aloft. As the ridge inches closer throughout the week temperatures will climb.
551 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Current satellite and RAP analysis has the upper high spinning over western New Mexico with temperatures warming across the area today into the upper 90s to triple digits. Tomorrow, the high will begin to meander northward towards the Colorado border. This shift in the high will result in little change to the high temperatures with once again upper 90s along the Caprock and lower triple digits (100-105 degrees) off the Caprock.
630 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) An upper ridge centered over the 4 Corners region which extends across the lower Mississippi River valley will remain generally in place through the period while an upper trof gradually strengthens over the interior eastern states. Lows tonight range from the lower to mid 70s well inland to the upper 70s/around 80 at the coast.
Upper level ridging centered over the four corners region will continue to provide convective suppression across the region through the weekend allowing for only very isolated thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon or early evening.
707 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) The aforementioned upper level ridge, centered just east of the Four Corners Region, will continue to influence our weather. The subsidence associated with this ridge will generally keep rain out the forecast, along with partly cloudy skies, and hot & humid conditions.
642 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) The mid-level high pressure remains centered over New Mexico. With the high shifted to the west a bit and increasing deep moisture, we can expect to see partly cloudy skies over portions of South Texas Saturday.
High pressure aloft remained centered over the Arizona/New Mexico border during the afternoon. At the same time an inverted trough was located over central Mexico.
Parts of SWFL received beneficial rains today as well, and expect trend of increased rain chances across the majority of WCFL/SWFL to continue on Saturday afternoon as W Atlantic ridging extends west toward the peninsula and a disturbance/weakness lingers over the peninsula and SE U. Some upper level troughing remains across the forecast area. Highs will once again be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the lower 100s.
918 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Cooler temperatures have begun to filter in across the local area this evening. * However, there is change in the air for most areas this weekend with cooler temperatures and some rain/storm chances. Cumulus field has struggled to grow as it moves into south central Nebraska with the weak lift due to warm air aloft and weak surface convergence, even with the low nearby. Sometimes it just takes a bit of mid-evening cooler to allow a storm to develop in these environments. That could totally hit if less storms develop overnight and winds/cooler air don't push as far south. The big news is though most of the rest of the forecast area will be significantly cooler tomorrow (80s to 90ish) and there may be some rain/clouds lingering which could drop temperatures more.
Given some breaks in cloud cover and dewpoints likely remaining in the lower to mid 70s, think we could get some patchy fog near and east of the I-65 corridor.
Drier and cooler weather will overspread the area this weekend. 17Z sfc analysis shows well demarcated outflow boundary extending from cntrl IL into srn IN before bucking back north as a warm front through IA. Nevertheless northeast IA through nrn IL vcnty appears most susceptible for vigorous storm development by evening with rapid upscale growth/organization ese along sharp low level theta-e ridge tonight. A few showers possible within swd progressing cold front Sat morning into early aftn southeast otherwise notable drying and cooler temps follow through mid week as high pressure builds in across the Great Lakes.
535 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 High pressure remains over the area Saturday with hot and humid conditions.
will continue to transport the strongest low-level gulf moisture across eastern into northcentral Oklahoma where the highest dewpoints/muggiest air will be in place, as well as the highest heat indices. Although could see some mid-level cloudiness with the low-level flow, but seeing more isentropic downglide/descent on surfaces in the mid-levels and forecast soundings keep the lower levels fairly dry.
(Tomorrow through Friday) Upper ridge will remain intact through the forecast period with very hot temperatures continuing.
930 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 High pressure remains over the area Saturday with hot and humid conditions.
Isolated showers and lightning storms are possible tonight into Saturday morning, with the highest coverage expected over the Gulf Stream.
832 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 A surface front and approaching low pressure system, along with abundant moisture, will lead to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday.
541 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 A cold front will be crossing the Upper Ohio Valley area on Saturday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Hot and muggy day with temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat index values should approach 100F so the excessive heat advisory Hi- res models have been struggling with an upstream MCS now pushing across central Ohio.
729 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 (Through Saturday) Area of low pressure spinning north up the southeast GA coast will track north of the area Tonight. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to wrap around this low. Sea breeze convergence and energy from leftover low, in addition to instability from diurnal heating and upper troughing will lead to scattered to numerous convection. Lows Tonight in the mid 70s are expected, with highs Saturday in the lower 90s.
936 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 A cold front will cross the region tonight, then exit across the Gulf of Maine Saturday while low pressure moves along the front.
506 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 (Issued 239 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023) Tonight through Saturday night: Dew point temperatures in the lower 70s and upper 60s are reported across the area. Dry and sunny conditions are expected on Saturday, with highs in the lower 80s away from the lakeshore.
737 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 High pressure remains over the area Saturday with hot and humid conditions.
740 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 A cold front will be crossing the Upper Ohio Valley area on Saturday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Hot and muggy day with temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat index values should approach 100F so the excessive heat advisory Hi- res models have been struggling with an upstream MCS now pushing across central Ohio.
Boxell (Issued 239 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023) Tonight through Saturday night: Dew point temperatures in the lower 70s and upper 60s are reported across the area. Dry and sunny conditions are expected on Saturday, with highs in the lower 80s away from the lakeshore.
Clouds and rain have thankfully kept the island chain down in the lower 80s this evening. From synopsis, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic will maintain gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeast breezes through Saturday.
High temperatures will range from the mid 90s to the low 100s.
Drier and cooler weather will then overspread the area this weekend as high pressure builds into the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. 17Z sfc analysis shows well demarcated outflow boundary extending from cntrl IL into srn IN before bucking back north as a warm front through IA. Nevertheless northeast IA through nrn IL vcnty appears most susceptible for vigorous storm development by evening with rapid upscale growth/organization ese along sharp low level theta-e ridge tonight. A few showers possible within swd progressing cold front Sat morning into early aftn southeast otherwise notable drying and cooler temps follow through mid week as high pressure builds in across the Great Lakes.
(Today and tonight) The upper level ridge, positioned to our west, will start to build back up after its brief weakening period. However, an inverted trough, currently located over Mexico, will try and make its way into south Texas today. The inverted trough will act to partially balance the strengthening ridge, leading to high temperatures just slightly above yesterday's. Once again, the forecast remains dry as the high pressure dominates our weather.
While there is lingering elevated instability over the state, there is a lack of convergence with the surface front/trough now over northern Missouri.
A weak cold front will move through on Sunday, but very warm temperatures are expected. As the inverted trough lifts northward along the coast the deepest moisture shifts away from the FA later in the afternoon and evening. The upper trough axis will shift to the east, allowing for a northwest flow aloft with strong ridging across the central/southern Plains. Ensembles are in general agreement that strong ridging will persist across the central/southern Plains, while an upper level trough lingers over New England and the Mid Atlantic.
203 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 High pressure remains over the area Saturday with hot and humid conditions.
The inverted trough that has been responsible for the bouts of unsettled weather over the past several days has split over the past twenty-four hours, with one piece of energy propagating northward to Georgia, and the other piece continuing to propagate westward in the Gulf of Mexico. Skies are partly cloudy across the island chain, with temperatures generally in the lower to mid 80s. All global numerical guidance suggests yet another blocking pattern becoming established across the eastern third of the United States. The Florida Keys will be sandwiched between North Atlantic ridging to the east and a quasistationary upper-level trough planted across the Mid- Atlantic.
237 AM MDT Sat Jul 29 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: To the northeast a large area of relatively cool high pressure lies over the Hudson Bay with a weak trough extending back west across the central and southern Canadian Prairie Provinces. To the south hot, high pressure lies anchored over the Four Corners with a ridge jutting north through through Idaho. West of this a closed low has formed off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia which is dragging pacific moisture up and around the jet flow along the International Boarder.
Farther west, from the Four Corners region northward through the Rockies, ridging is gradually becoming more pronounced. On the synoptic scale, there is high confidence that ridging upstream of our area will continue to amplify over the next 24 hours. Here, along the eastern periphery of the building ridge, we should experience height rises for much of the day.
133 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (Through Saturday) Area of low pressure spinning north up the southeast GA coast will track north of the area Tonight. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to wrap around this low. Sea breeze convergence and energy from leftover low, in addition to instability from diurnal heating and upper troughing will lead to scattered to numerous convection. Lows Tonight in the mid 70s are expected, with highs Saturday in the lower 90s.
High pressure and a drier, somewhat cooler airmass will settle into the region on Sunday. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the mid 80s north to the lower 90s in the south. High pressure and a somewhat drier and cooler airmass will settle into the area tonight into Sunday. Bit of a pattern shift is expected sometime mid-week when a longwave trough begins to dig down from western Canada.
1237 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Current satellite and RAP analysis has the upper high spinning over western New Mexico with temperatures warming across the area today into the upper 90s to triple digits. Tomorrow, the high will begin to meander northward towards the Colorado border. This shift in the high will result in little change to the high temperatures with once again upper 90s along the Caprock and lower triple digits (100-105 degrees) off the Caprock.
Cloud cover is forecasted to remain low throughout the day thanks to the strong upper ridge hovering over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
(Today through Sunday) The mid level ridge strengthens through the weekend with slightly increasing low level moisture. As the ridge builds into Sunday, expect less seabreeze activity, less cloud cover, and highs notching a degree or two more than today.
This is likely the result of some DPVA within the mid level theta-e ridge axis, and could continue through the late morning hours based on mid level water vapor imagery.
Not expecting any severe storms with this activity as the higher instability will be confined to NE as mentioned above. Coming in at below normal levels, highs will reside mostly in the lower 80s. Not much change for Sunday with surface ridging continuing to dominate across the region.
This may keep temperatures locally cooler depending on storm timing and coverage.
1214 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 A cold front will cross the region tonight, then exit across the Gulf of Maine Saturday while low pressure moves along the front. High pressure will build toward the region Sunday.
320 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Today will mark the start of a relatively quiet period as upper- level troughing becomes established across the Upper Great Lakes and the effective warm front modulated by convective outflow continues moving southward toward the Ohio River Valley. However, surface temperatures today will be much cooler than the past few days with highs expected to top off in the mid 80s. With upper-level troughing more established by Sunday, highs should be a hair cooler than today and near the 80 degree mark.
Model consensus for today wants to keep most of our north in the lower 80s and further south into the middle 80s. Keep in mind that this is with ingestion of GEFS data so forecast could trend cooler than expected.
The upper ridge axis remains over the Four Corners through the weekend and southerly surface flow in response to lee troughing will maintain these above-normal temperatures. The only interesting thing to watch in the short-term forecast is an inverted trough pushing its way up from the Gulf of Mexico, skirting just south of the area. This trough should cool temperatures along and south of Hwy 90 by a few degrees both this afternoon and Sunday. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected as this trough moves across, but an isolated storm in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley cannot be ruled out.
The H500 ridge this morning remains rather flattened, centered over the southern Rockies and NM/CO tablelands, with the ridge spanning from the Sierra to the Mid-Mississippi valley.
310 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 A few isolated showers and storms are possible Saturday as a cold front passes through the Great Lakes region.
Discussion: Currently calm weather early this morning as we continue to sit between 2 dominant ridges over the southern US and the Atlantic. Further to our north a broad trough is is trying to push into the New England region and help drive a weak boundary south flattening the ridge out. Based on surface observations from the past 2 days of very hot temps and ample mixing this lowering of the dew points seems to be working out fairly well.
114 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) The mid-level high pressure remains centered over New Mexico. With the high shifted to the west a bit and increasing deep moisture, we can expect to see partly cloudy skies over portions of South Texas Saturday.
(Today and tonight) Stuck in the summer doldrums for the weather today is yesterday's tomorrow as the center of the subtropical ridge remains over the Four Corners region. Similar temperatures are expected again today, with surface winds backing to the southeast this afternoon as a weak cyclone forms in southern Colorado. Winds will oscillate to the southwest later tonight as the aforementioned lee cyclone gradually rotates to the east while remaining dry.
Temperatures begin on a warming trend rising into the low to mid 90s with heat indices rising into triple digits. On Sunday, the interior and southwestern portions of South Florida are likely to experience the highest rainfall rates and the most favorable conditions for showers and thunderstorms due to the prevailing southeasterly flow.
Continued evening convection and showers near the center of the low have helped to moderate afternoon highs, particularly across southeastern GA.
(Today and tonight) No real change to the large-scale pattern with upper low pressure over the northeast Pacific and subtropical ridging centered over Arizona and New Mexico. Our area will remain along the ridge periphery with southwest flow aloft and periodic bouts of mid-high clouds as weak perturbations rotate around the high pressure center. Highs will be seasonal with 60s and 70s for the coast and coast-adjacent valleys, while warmer 80s and 90s prevail inland. Low tonight will dip into the 50s for the low elevations with 60s to around 70 in the hills.
The good news is temperatures will be cooler today. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the low-to-mid 80s across most of our area, with highs around 90 in our southern counties. Even still, cooler than yesterday in these areas. As ridging builds up over the Rockies to our west, we see the upper-level pattern turn more northwesterly over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.