Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
432 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2023 - Tranquil and mild weather expected through the week ahead Cold morning today in the high mountain valleys with the coldest locations dropping below zero. East of the Continental Divide however, temperatures are much milder owing to downslope winds across the foothills and adjacent urban corridor, with several locations still hovering in the low 40's along the base of the foothills as of 2. With daytime mixing, the breezier westerly winds currently over the higher terrain will break eastward slightly, with gusts 25-40 mph through this evening for most of the foothills and communities along their base. Otherwise, it'll be a warmer day across the board as high pressure continues to expand eastward, with highs climbing into the mid to upper 50's for the lower elevations, and abundant sun most of the day.
The center of the surface anticyclone is expected to enter the CWA tonight/early Sunday morning.
To start the period, rather sharp upper level ridging is in place across the western CONUS. A weak disturbance in this ridging has increased mid level westerly to northwesterly flow, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front. Stability at ridgetops will combine with 40-50kt flow in the stable layer to result in gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and out to Cut Bank this morning and afternoon. As winds subside tonight across the plains, northwesterly flow at the surface will usher in some cooler temperatures.
An upper level low offshore will bring southerly flow, instability, convection and a chance of thunderstorm activity. The trailing edge of the current ridging pattern will help in clearing out skies today, with scattered to few mid level clouds lingering. Subsidence from the ridge will also encourage warm surface temperatures, which ensembles have been signaling for the past few days near the Humboldt coast. The cutoff upper level low, parked offshore will begin to source moisture to the area by Sunday, ahead of a cold front.
An upper level ridge to the east and a cutoff low spinning over thee Pacific will continue to guide conditions across northern California and southern Oregon in the near term. Sunday night will bring more active weather as the upper ridge moves farther east and allows the weakening closed low to approach the area.
A bit warmer temperatures are expected overnight as northeast winds remain overnight. Temperatures will remain a bit warmer where the winds remain gusty. Heights rise as a ridge builds along the West Coast this weekend.
236 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2023 - Tranquil and mild weather expected through the week ahead Cold morning today in the high mountain valleys with the coldest locations dropping below zero. East of the Continental Divide however, temperatures are much milder owing to downslope winds across the foothills and adjacent urban corridor, with several locations still hovering in the low 40's along the base of the foothills as of 2. With daytime mixing, the breezier westerly winds currently over the higher terrain will break eastward slightly, with gusts 25-40 mph through this evening for most of the foothills and communities along their base. Otherwise, it'll be a warmer day across the board as high pressure continues to expand eastward, with highs climbing into the mid to upper 50's for the lower elevations, and abundant sun most of the day.
An area of low pressure and upper level trough continues to bring light snow to most locations this morning. Isolated higher amounts may be possible over the terrain area of the Prairie Coteau where surface temps are slightly cooler. With the cooler temps, icy roadways have been reported in northern Roberts County. Limited cold air advection on the backside of the storm, along with little to no snow cover, high temperatures will remain above average with highs in the low 30s, to the low 40s. A weak low pressure system crossing the region later tonight will bring westerly downslope winds to the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau. Another trough should pass northeast of the CWA on Sunday, with increasing northwesterly winds the main impacts.
537 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 (Today through Sunday night) Surface winds will become more southwest today as a lee-side trough establishes itself. There could be just enough convergence along the trough along with just enough low level moisture to help produce some fog in the eastern Panhandles late tonight. Winds will then be northerly Sunday behind the trough.
Light snow has moved south and east out of our area and most of the low clouds have moved south out of the southwest and south central as well. A weak upper level trough continues to move through the region this morning with ridging on it's heels.
415 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 (Today and tonight) Some stratus continues to linger along and behind the weak cold front early this morning across northern, central, and southeastern OK. Skies will slowly clear later this morning as drier air and subsidence follows the upper low moving into northern MO. There could even be some freezing fog that develops near sunrise across portions of northern OK.
Strong upper level ridging has developed across the Southwestern U. within a high amplitude weather pattern which has also allowed for deep troughing across the central U. The ridge boasts H5 heights of 582-584dm across the Desert Southwest, or within the 90th percentile of climatology for the period.
657 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023 The next low pressure system approaches from the Midwest while bringing high clouds to start today. A more active pattern sets up for the next few days as troughing over the Plains shifts east. The interaction of these waves results in the now combined but shearing mid-level trough swinging into the Ohio Valley late tonight before quickly lifting over the Ontario peninsula daytime Sunday.
The drier air behind a Pacific cold front will arrive later this morning. Slightly breezier winds will occur between 10 AM and 4 PM as high pressure spreads across the area and skies clear leaving sunny skies. High temperatures this afternoon will squeak into the lower 70s in some areas. With the cold front through this morning and high pressure spreading over the area, the remainder of the short term will be quiet. Winds will become light on Sunday with high temps in the lower to mid 70s under sunny skies.
(Today through Sunday night) Surface winds will become more southwest today as a lee-side trough establishes itself. There could be just enough convergence along the trough along with just enough low level moisture to help produce some fog in the eastern Panhandles late tonight. Winds will then be northerly Sunday behind the trough.
We warm up into the low 60s today with abundant sunshine, though westerly downslope winds on Sunday takes high temperatures well into the upper 60s. Our next cold front looks to push in Sunday evening, taking temperatures back near average to start the work week.
Our forecast for this weekend is dependent on a deepening upper trough axis, that will slide east by tomorrow as it interacts with a low pressure system moving into Florida.
- Fog, potentially dense, will continue through the passage of the low pressure into Wisconsin early Sunday morning.
Given the latest model trends, temperatures should warm into the lower 50s if/where the sun makes an appearance. There's a low chance (<20%) of light rain/patchy drizzle late this afternoon and into early this evening for portions of far NW AR along/ahead of the trough axis.
08Z observations show a departing 557 dm upper low centered around Kansas City with subsidence occurring on the backside of the low which has led to mainly clear skies across western Kansas. Today we should be slightly warmer as we will have mainly sunny skies and west to northwest winds. The coolest temperatures will be in the east where the last influence of the upper low will keep the cooler air in place for much longer during the day. Sunday should be warmer as 850 mb temps warm to around 9(C) along with plenty of sunshine during the day. A late afternoon cold front will move into northern Kansas which should keep the cold air advection from coming in until after sunset.
Scattered clouds but otherwise mild conditions will continue today and Saturday as a high pressure ridge remains parked over the region.
526 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 - Dry and warmer weather this weekend with high temperatures near 50 degrees across south central Nebraska and into the 50s across north central Kansas.
Under the continued influence of high pressure through the weekend, inversions will persist with patchy low stratus and dense freezing fog each night particularly around bodies of water. Have narrowed down the scope of this mornings Freezing Fog Advisory to the Bear Lake Valley as dense fog outside of this region continues to remain more localized in nature. As an H5 ridge axis shifts overhead today, look for increasingly cloudy skies as upper-level clouds filter in overtop the ridge with seasonably warm afternoon highs in the 30s to mid 40s as conditions remain dry.
First, a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will lift through Florida near the Big Bend area and into SE Georgia later this evening and through the overnight hours into Sunday. At the same time, a trough will move into our area from the northwest, providing enough forcing for increased rain chances ahead of a cold front. The main trough axis is moving through our area by Sunday morning, pushing the gulf low further northeast. The cold front associated with the trough is expected to slide through Central AL during the day on Sunday, ending any lingering rain chances by the late afternoon/early evening.
(Today through Sunday) Surface observations along with radar data show the cold front has and associated light rain showers have moved southeast of the region early this morning. A good portion of the Hill Country should see a freeze tonight, with nearby cool spots along I-35 near Austin getting close to freezing.
Temperatures will remain on the warmer than average side today. However, NBM probabilities are less than 10 percent for gusts that high, and upper level winds are closer to 35 kts and don't have the higher values to mix down.
522 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 (Today through Sunday Night) To begin the period, light showers continue across the area as a cold front advances on the state. As of the issuance of this forecast package, the cold front is located just to the NW of the state. QPF amounts are expected to remain on the low side as rainfall continues to be light across the state.
Satellite imagery highlights a developing low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. The low level water vapor channel places a tongue of dry air wrapping into the eastern semicircle. The Florida Keys have been within a potent warm sector for much of the day, although the confluence has been focused across the Lower and Middle Keys. Rainfall totals for the Lower Keys are near 2" in the last 12-hours, with many locations experiencing dozens of rounds of rainfall. The low pressure system will move northeast tonight and will cross northern Florida Sunday morning.
High pressure remains in control of the weather across eastern Idaho.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Upper level troughing advances eastward and a northwesterly mid- level flow develops across South-Central Texas through the short term as ridging dominates the pattern out west. Area cooler drainage valleys and portions of the Hill Country will see the return of freezing temperatures. Sunday will otherwise trend milder as winds shift from out of the west to southwest, with afternoon highs in the low 70s for many.
Clouds will clear a bit more for additional sunshine this afternoon as ridging builds further into the area. Dry conditions will continue through the weekend with upper level ridging nudging into the Pacific Northwest.
We are seeing light showers along the cold front and there continues to be light returns on the OHX radar. The trough axis will be pushing through Sunday morning and that will bring some lingering showers to the Plateau. 50 with the highest totals expected in the northeast. Winds will fall off quickly behind the cold front and we will be looking at a less windy day tomorrow. Highs Sunday will be about 4-7 degrees cooler than today.
The low rain/drizzle chances across a small part of far northwest Arkansas late this afternoon in the current forecast continue to look good, associated with the southward sinking vort max over eastern Nebraska at present.
(This evening through Sunday) 500mb ridge across the western United States and a 500mb trough across the east-central U. with temperatures falling into the lower to mid 30s across southern portions of the CWA late tonight into early Sunday morning. The upper level trough of low pressure across the east-central U.
1208 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2023 IR currently depicts upper level clouds spilling over an upper level ridge across the Pacific Northwest extending through the CWA and upper Rockies. The upper level ridge will stay in place through the weekend and into early this next work week. However, it looks to break down some and weaken with increasing divergence aloft coming from an upper level low off the northern California coast.
335 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023 ===================================================================== Key Message: Rain chances ramp up late this afternoon and definitely tonight ===================================================================== Triad of upper low/troughs over the middle of the country/central Gulf of Mexico will roughly merge into a broad meridional trough Sunday as it crosses our longitude. A cold front at the surface under this feature will push through the region tomorrow morning. Colder air will advect in behind the front in a NW flow, along with strong vorticity associated with the trough axis and gusty sfc winds thanks to the deepening low quickly working up the eastern coast of the CONUS. The highest threat looks to be along the I-64 corridor from just east of Louisville over to Lexington and then north up I-75 into Cincinnati.
(This evening through Sunday night) Temperatures as of the latest 19Z obs are well into the 50s across the Panhandles, with some areas even reaching the lower 60s. A weak cold front will move through the Panhandles tomorrow. Besides a wind shift from westerly to northerly, no other impacts from the cold front is expected. Skies remain mostly clear tomorrow night with low temperatures ranging from the lower 20s to lower 30s.
1119 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 (Today through Sunday) Surface observations along with radar data show the cold front has and associated light rain showers have moved southeast of the region early this morning. A good portion of the Hill Country should see a freeze tonight, with nearby cool spots along I-35 near Austin getting close to freezing.
1159 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 - Dry and warmer weather this weekend with high temperatures near 50 degrees across south central Nebraska and into the 50s across north central Kansas.
A persistent upper ridge will maintain the stagnant conditions in the valleys due to a shallow inversion and lack of vertical mixing of the winds to scour it out.
With northwest winds at 10-15 mph, expect afternoon highs to peak in the low to mid 50s north of I-20 and the mid 50s to low 60s south of I-20. A frosty Sunday morning is likely across much of North and Central Texas with temperatures near/just above freezing, light winds, and low dewpoint depressions. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the low to upper 60s area-wide Sunday afternoon. /Issued 329 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023/ /Sunday Night Onward/ Dry, northwest flow aloft will follow the departing trough to our east as upper level ridging dominates across the western US to start out the work week. A cold front will clear the region Sunday night with high pressure building into the Plains in its wake.
1014 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2023 127 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2023 - Another clipper/cold front arrives Sunday with breezy conditions. Upper level ridging continues over the western third of the US with northwesterly flow over the Northern Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of high pressure has shifted into northeastern ND/northwestern MN.
842 AM PST Sat Dec 16 2023 A strong ridge aloft and weak offshore flow at the surface will maintain fair and warm days, with cool nights through Sunday.
Only minor update to current hourly temperatures for the next two hours for the Helena Valley as temperatures are a bit cooler and for portions of North Central Montana as cloud coverage has kept temperatures a little bit milder this morning. To start the period, rather sharp upper level ridging is in place across the western CONUS. A weak disturbance in this ridging has increased mid level westerly to northwesterly flow, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front. Stability at ridgetops will combine with 40-50kt flow in the stable layer to result in gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and out to Cut Bank this morning and afternoon. As winds subside tonight across the plains, northwesterly flow at the surface will usher in some cooler temperatures.
Meanwhile, a surface cold front is slated to traverse the Tennessee Valley tonight. Additionally, a low pressure system will progress over the eastern Gulf and northeast over Florida and the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines through Sunday afternoon.
- Dry and Windy today One more day will be dominated by high pressure as warm daytime temperatures will allow for gusty southerly winds upwards of 20 mph this afternoon and evening. Any light showers and the corresponding clouds should remain north of the southern lower today as the region should remain stable with the upper level high stifling any convection. The negatively tilted ridge over the Great Lakes will be pushed eastward by a deepening upper level low moving through the central United States. As the high treks eastward clouds will continue to overspread the area this afternoon and evening. - Cloudy with chance of showers Sunday The upper level trough will swing through the midwest Sunday bringing showers likely overnight through Sunday. The upper level low should track to our south with the heaviest precipitation in Indiana.
At the same time, global guidance continue to show a developing low pressure system shifting east across the Gulf of Mexico towards the FL east coast. By this evening, the aforementioned low pressure center will move towards the FL east coast, which will decrease rain potential across our area.
Winds across the Keys are about 5 to 10 knots higher than guidance, indicating isallobaric accelerations due to the developing low pressure system. From synopsis, strong high pressure over the easternmost United States in tandem with a deepening low in the Gulf of Mexico will maintain strong to near- gale breezes across the Florida Keys. Winds in the Keys will box clockwise from east southeasterly to westerly over the next couple of days as the low pushes into the southeastern United States.
This Gulf low is expected to move ashore around the lower FL Big Bend region north of Tampa very late tonight, and then lift quickly northeast across the northern FL peninsula and rapidly away from our area during the day on Sunday. The upper trof noted previously will also bring a weak cold front into our forecast area from the west tonight. High temperatures both today and Sunday are expected to be primarily in the low to mid 60s.
1246 PM PST Sat Dec 16 2023 Well above average high temperatures continue through the weekend across the San Joaquin Valley due to high pressure aloft. Significantly above normal afternoon highs continue across the valley today due to high pressure aloft. Afternoon highs will be nearly 15 degrees above average today as high pressure remains in control. Above average highs continue again tomorrow, but not quite as hot as low pressure disturbance aloft begins to impinge on the ridge currently over us.
1143 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 (Today and tonight) Some stratus continues to linger along and behind the weak cold front early this morning across northern, central, and southeastern OK. Skies will slowly clear later this morning as drier air and subsidence follows the upper low moving into northern MO. There could even be some freezing fog that develops near sunrise across portions of northern OK.
High pressure featuring calm winds and strong valley inversions is quite conducive to valley fog and low stratus. Current analysis is showing the well-formed upper level ridge over the western U.
1121 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 (Today through Sunday night) Surface winds will become more southwest today as a lee-side trough establishes itself. There could be just enough convergence along the trough along with just enough low level moisture to help produce some fog in the eastern Panhandles late tonight. Winds will then be northerly Sunday behind the trough.
(This evening through Sunday) Dry northwest flow aloft will continue over the region through the remainder of the weekend as a large-amplitude upper ridge axis continues to build over the western CONUS. Surface flow will remain light through the daytime hours on Sunday as a weak trough gradually shifts southward over the Texas Panhandle ahead of a weakening cold front set to pass through the region late Sunday.
(The rest of this afternoon ) Skies are slowly clearing from the west this afternoon in the wake of a departing upper level low. For the time being will include patchy freezing fog area-wide as most spots will be AOB freezing, but more widespread coverage may need to be introduced later in some areas. (Tonight through Saturday) Northwest flow develops Sunday which will result in a dry and generally clear day, with warmer temperatures.
1123 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 (Today through Sunday Night) We got nature's white noise machine working for us this morning with widespread light to moderate rainfall occuring along and ahead of the passing cold front. Then, high pressure begins its domination over the weather through the next several days bringing cool and dry conditions. High temperatures today will rise into the upper 50s to low 60s across the area, but a breezy northerly wind may make it feel a little cooler than that. Temperatures tonight will dip down into the mid to upper 30s for most locations, while the coast and urban areas will stay in the low 40s. Slight warming is expected on Sunday with high temperatures rising into the low to mid 60s area-wide, and then similar low temperatures are expected Sunday night.
(Today through Sunday Night) To begin the period, light showers continue across the area as a cold front advances on the state. As of the issuance of this forecast package, the cold front is located just to the NW of the state. QPF amounts are expected to remain on the low side as rainfall continues to be light across the state.
A quick update this morning to expire the freezing fog advisory across the region for the remainder of today. Huston Under the continued influence of high pressure through the weekend, inversions will persist with patchy low stratus and dense freezing fog each night particularly around bodies of water. Have narrowed down the scope of this mornings Freezing Fog Advisory to the Bear Lake Valley as dense fog outside of this region continues to remain more localized in nature. As an H5 ridge axis shifts overhead today, look for increasingly cloudy skies as upper-level clouds filter in overtop the ridge with seasonably warm afternoon highs in the 30s to mid 40s as conditions remain dry.
Showers will continue to linger heading into tonight as mid-afternoon global guidance continues to show a 1004mb low pressure system shifting east towards FL. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the low/mid 40s across our forecast area. A cooler and drier air mass will spread across the area on Sunday as the aforementioned low-pressure tracks north towards the Carolinas.