Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
716 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Tonight and tomorrow: An upper ridge continues to be our predominant influence and heat remains the primary concern. Climatological analysis suggests the likely range of temperatures is 95-99, however, given a history of 100 degree temps and conditions, opted to lean on the high end. Given drier soils, temperatures could reach the low 100s in this area, which combined with upper 70s dewpoints, should result in heat indices 115-120 degrees in this region. Elsewhere has experienced more recent rainfall and may be slightly cooler. Have expanded excessive heat warning to cover nearly entire CWA, with the exception of the far east where recent rainfall may keep temps slightly cooler, and slight storm chances tomorrow afternoon may limit extreme heat potential.
Widespread thunderstorms are forecast across Utah this evening associated with an area of low pressure and deep monsoonal moisture.
614 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Mid-level ridging will continue to slowly move off towards the east this evening through tomorrow. With a south to north oriented pool of moisture hanging around the I-35 corridor and east, little relief from the heat is expected overnight with lows in the low 80s expected.
704 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) Latest 18Z obs and satellite analysis shows a notable perturbation moving northeast across eastern New Mexico just a head of a very broad H500 negative tilted trough with the main axis over the Four Corners Region. All of these mesoscale setup occurring on the backside of the main H500 high pressure system currently centered over the DFW metro. The main northern stream trough across the northern Plains and broad H500 high to the south will set up another chance for diurnal convection, favoring the northern Panhandles tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night.
Sfc ridging will persist invof the ern/srn Great Lakes this period inbetween stout sw US upper ridge and deep upper low over ern Canada. Broad/deepening warm advection ahead of this sys timed with relaxation of ern Canada troughing should allow active stationary frontal zone through the mid MS valley to finally buck back north. Ridging will continue to provide rainfree VFR conditions with relatively light winds through the period.
Hot weather will return over the weekend as high pressure rebuilds over the Southwest. Temperatures in the lower deserts and Coachella Valley will reach around 115 degrees. High pressure and dry northwesterly flow remain in place across the region.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicates little change to the overall pattern, aside from the broadening of the ridge of high pressure, which remains centered in the vicinity of North Texas/the Red River Valley. As the ridge continues to broaden, subsidence will increase over the region, and the fetch of subtropical monsoonal moisture will shift westward. Additionally, as the ridge expands, our temperatures continue to rise, edging up to around 100 to 104 degrees across the plains today, hotter through the river valleys, with the higher elevations still holding on in the lower to middle 90s.
251 AM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Afternoon temperatures will begin to trend cooler with the propagation of monsoonal moisture, which will also be responsible for showers and potential thunderstorm development over the next few days. Upper-level ridging retains dominance over much of CONUS, with its axis centralized over eastern Montana, driving yet another day of warm, above seasonal average temperatures to Central and North- central Montana. Meanwhile monsoonal moisture resumes to propagate northward into the Treasure State, which can still be visualized on low-level water vapor satellite imagery, allowing temperatures in the Southwest to trend cooler, below seasonal averages. 25") of precipitation for locations south of the MT Hwy 200 Corridor and east of I-15, with the higher probabilities lingering east of US-287.
The Keys remain in a region of very weak mainly SE surface flow, as we are located at the western end of a weak Atlantic ridge axis. Aloft, a mid latitude trough is exiting stage right over the western Atlantic, with our area under NE flow around the eastern periphery of a deep ridge centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico. More recent GOES-TPW satellite imagery shows a plume of enhanced moisture, with estimated PWs around 2 inches, extending westward from the base of the departing trough across the Bahamas, South Florida and the Keys into the SE Gulf.
1246 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Tonight and tomorrow: An upper ridge continues to be our predominant influence and heat remains the primary concern. Climatological analysis suggests the likely range of temperatures is 95-99, however, given a history of 100 degree temps and conditions, opted to lean on the high end. Given drier soils, temperatures could reach the low 100s in this area, which combined with upper 70s dewpoints, should result in heat indices 115-120 degrees in this region. Elsewhere has experienced more recent rainfall and may be slightly cooler. Have expanded excessive heat warning to cover nearly entire CWA, with the exception of the far east where recent rainfall may keep temps slightly cooler, and slight storm chances tomorrow afternoon may limit extreme heat potential.
407 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 High pressure will persist across the region into the weekend.
By Friday, the high pressure has settled in to the Desert Southwest blocking any monsoonal moisture trying to move up out of Mexico.
254 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Key Messages: - Hot temperatures today in the low 90s, with heat indices in the mid 90s and WBGT in the mid 80s.
(Today through Friday) The H5 ridge will remain centered near northeast Texas today. A very slight weakening of heights and very slight increase in dew points may allow for temperatures today a degree cooler in some spots, but still hot. The ridge shifts south on Friday, centering across South Central and Southeast Texas. As this happens, high temperatures Friday may trend a degree or two warmer than today.
241 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 High pressure continues to yield dry conditions, sunny skies, and near normal temperatures.
1046 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Mid-level ridging will continue to slowly move off towards the east this evening through tomorrow. With a south to north oriented pool of moisture hanging around the I-35 corridor and east, little relief from the heat is expected overnight with lows in the low 80s expected.
Drier and much warmer conditions are expected thereafter into the weekend. Elsewhere, little in terms of any precipitation is expected as subsidence aloft from the building ridge to the west will act to cap any upward motion for precipitation development.
Upper-level ridging persists across the West Gulf and north through the central CONUS. Sitting on the edge of the high, the 500-700mb winds continue to remain N to NNE across the Florida peninsula, advecting in some drier air from the central CONUS. Meanwhile at the surface, the Bermuda High remains suppressed and pushed east with an upper-level trough over the mid-Atlantic region. This does favor temperatures climbing into the low-to- mid 90s once again, but dewpoint values should be a degree or two lower with the surface airmass drying out slightly as it advects westward. This lowers the rain chances across the area further, but most notably for the Nature Coast through the Tampa Bay Area.
1137 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure will build from the north through Thursday, then shift off the coast. Forecast lows are in the low to mid 70s, with a few upper 60s expected inland. Low pressure aloft to the north of New England and high pressure over TX will yield northwesterly flow aloft over the local area on Thursday.
A surface cold front comes through Thursday morning and afternoon.
156 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 The Lower Great Lakes are in a relative stagnant zone in the general weather pattern and within a weak surface pressure pattern leading to calm winds and efficient radiational cooling away from the various pockets of cloud cover. Today looks like a spitting image of yesterday except with temperatures a degree or two warmer and in the mid to upper 80s. An afternoon lake breeze will keep shoreline locations cooler and in the mid to upper 70s. North to northeasterly winds in the wake of the front will usher in lowering humidity levels with highs topping off in the low to mid 80s, warmest south. Friday night will be pleasant with lows in the low to mid 60s.
Sfc ridging will persist invof the ern/srn Great Lakes this period in between stout sw US upper ridge and deep upper low over ern Canada. Broad/deepening warm advection ahead of this sys timed with relaxation of ern Canada troughing should allow active stationary frontal zone through the mid MS valley to finally buck back north. Northern Indiana sandwiched between northern stream cyclonic flow across northern Great Lakes and primary storm track along periphery of Texas based upper level ridge.
Patchy valley fog and passing mid to high clouds to start today with daybreak temps +5-10F warmer vs.
126 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Cooler high pressure continues over Eastern NC through tomorrow. The next cold front and trough approaches by late week. Weak low pressure could move along this front across eastern NC over the weekend. Still only some think cirrus passing overhead tonight as high pressure remains in control. Despite this, increased low level thicknesses will support high temps a few degrees warmer, with mid to upper 80s expected in most areas, except for across the Outer and Inner Banks where onshore flow will keep temps in the low 80s. A weak/decaying front will approach eastern NC through the period and will weaken near or over the area over the weekend as a mid and upper level trough continues over the eastern US while deepening somewhat.
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s to around 70. the upper level flow becomes zonal, in between elongated high pressure to our south and low pressure to our north.
(Today through Friday) Mid-level ridging centered over East Texas will continue to maintain hot and humid conditions across the region through the period. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Brownsville radar currently shows some steamer showers moving along the Lower Texas Coast. Southeasterly winds will increase this afternoon as the pressure gradient strengthens a bit along the lower Texas coast.
1201 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 The strong ridge that has brought the multiple days of 100+ degree heat to the CWA is finally starting to show signs of breaking down. Current satellite shows the ridge currently in place with an approaching frontal system over the Eastern Pacific that will serve to break down the ridge starting tonight.
when many locations saw all time record highs in the low to mid 110s. The center of the upper level high will be centered to the SW of AR today. Dewpts may drop into the low to mid 60s in some spots. The upper high will continue to weaken and slide back south for Fri.
The second driver will be an area of low pressure, which is showing up well on radar this morning in northern Utah with some showers swirling around it. This low will track north- northeastward today into western Wyoming and help provide lift for another day of drenching showers and thunderstorms. The one difference today is that most models show some somewhat drier air moving into southern Wyoming as the low moves northward, so these areas may dry out somewhat, emphasis on somewhat, as we head into the evening. Also, with cloud cover, surface instability looks quite limited so this should keep severe weather potential on the low side. The low will then turn eastward and slowly move across northern Wyoming on Friday.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms along with slightly cooler than normal temperatures will remain in the forecast over the next few days with a return to more summer-like pattern late this weekend. With the clouds over the area temperatures will only cool another couple degrees with most locations in the low 70s. Highs Friday currently look to only reach the low to middle 80s with lows Friday night in the low 70s. Upper trough across the area will begin to weaken some and lift northward, allowing the ridge off to our west to expand slightly eastward and closer to the area.
(Today - Friday) With the low level jet (25-35kt) veering to the west, it will become parallel to the mean 850-300mb flow, so this favors a continued upwind propagation and cell training for a while longer. Then between 12z and 15z, the low level jet will veer to the northwest and weaken with activity quickly tapering off. However, with weaker mid level flow and little to no low level jet each night, precipitation chances will be on the lower side.
The trough that brought dynamically forced convection to our CWA today has just now cleared the New Mexico border and any remaining activity will end shortly. In the wake of this trough, the mean ridge will shift to a west-east orientation and strengthen, the Monsoon will end, for now. Expect a warmer weekend as a result.
139 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 High pressure will build from the north through Thursday, then shift off the coast. Low pressure aloft to the north of New England and high pressure over TX will yield northwesterly flow aloft over the local area on Thursday.
Ensemble guidance in good agreement depicting upper ridging building across the central CONUS, with low level ridging building into our portion of the northern plains. -Showers & thunderstorms may start the weekend -Temperatures near normal values Water vapor indicates an upper wave currently over Utah, and guidance crashes this feature into the upper ridging.
Hot and humid conditions with dangerous heat indices will continue through the short-term period as high pressure remains in control aloft.
1225 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) Latest 18Z obs and satellite analysis shows a notable perturbation moving northeast across eastern New Mexico just a head of a very broad H500 negative tilted trough with the main axis over the Four Corners Region. All of these mesoscale setup occurring on the backside of the main H500 high pressure system currently centered over the DFW metro. The main northern stream trough across the northern Plains and broad H500 high to the south will set up another chance for diurnal convection, favoring the northern Panhandles tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night.
(Through Thursday) Upper level ridging will generally hold over the region; however, flow will gradually change from the north to the southwest. Highs for Thursday will be in the low to mid 90s while heat index values peak in the upper 90s to low 100s. (Thursday night through Friday night) An MCS moving across northern Alabama and northern Georgia throughout Thursday will continue moving southeast along the periphery of the upper-level ridge overnight. Expect overnight lows in the mid 70s with daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s.
358 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Low pressure moves across Quebec Thursday, bringing a cold front south across the region late Thursday night and Friday morning.
(Today and tonight) Looks like another hot day across the area with a strong upper level high over the area and an intense low level thermal ridge over the northwest part of the area.
1214 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Hot and dry weather will continue across the area again on Thursday, as the upper high remains over the area. Temperatures on Thursday will be hot but a degree or two cooler than today.
400 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Most of the day will be dry as the area remains under northwest flow and weak high pressure. Models are currently focusing on mainly northern West Virginia and the southern ridges. Soundings are also developing a weak cap this afternoon as warmer air aloft overspreads the region. This disturbance will provide a bit more synoptic support for shower and thunderstorm activity, with greatest concentration over the higher terrain to the east. This wave then continues east of our are and serves as the driving mechanism in ejecting the parent upper low that has been sitting over eastern Canad out over the western Atlantic, which finally transitions the deep-layer flow over our area from northwesterly to more zonal.
Even with forecast highs in the low to mid 90s, with forecast dewpoints in the middle 70s, afternoon heat index values climb to 105 in our far southern zones. The gradient of temperatures continues to be relatively tight north-to-south across the boundary, as well as due to anticipated cloud cover, that this high heat could fluctuate north or south a county and we'd be talking heat index values near 105 in the southern KC metro, or heat indices below 100 for our far south.
(Today) Upper ridge remains firmly in control across the local region today with high temperatures at or slightly above those recorded yesterday.
302 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Profiles this afternoon depict convective instability with this high dewpoint airmass in place and a slow moving wave helping to suppress the ridge aloft. This is associated with the main upper low, which makes a very slow progression eastwards, slow enough that any convection wont reach the western CWA likely after sundown. CAMS show weak convection migrating towards and then lingering in the Mobridge area associated with these structure. This doesn't end up being a strong push of cooler air, but drier air will meet up with our humid airmass at the eastern and northern edges of the CWA. Overall, cooler temperatures Friday is more contingent on the increased coverage of clouds.
1013 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 A warm night is expected for the Mid-South as an upper level ridge remains parked over the ArkLaTex. The weekend should be slightly cooler but still in the 90s.
1241 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) Hot and humid condition will continue through the short term period, but low rain/storm chances are in the forecast this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon as a weak inverted trough moves into the region.
High pressure remains the dominant feature across the region.
112 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Most of the day will be dry as the area remains under northwest flow and weak high pressure. Models are currently focusing on mainly northern West Virginia and the southern ridges. Soundings are also developing a weak cap this afternoon as warmer air aloft overspreads the region. This disturbance will provide a bit more synoptic support for shower and thunderstorm activity, with greatest concentration over the higher terrain to the east. This wave then continues east of our are and serves as the driving mechanism in ejecting the parent upper low that has been sitting over eastern Canad out over the western Atlantic, which finally transitions the deep-layer flow over our area from northwesterly to more zonal.
1141 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 A warm night is expected for the Mid-South as an upper level ridge remains parked over the ArkLaTex. The weekend should be slightly cooler but still in the 90s.
The low-level warm advection will be much weaker and accordingly, WPC QPF is well under an inch.
620 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Low pressure moves across Quebec Thursday, bringing a cold front south across the region late Thursday night and Friday morning.
617 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 High pressure continues to yield dry conditions, sunny skies, and near normal temperatures.
as the pronounced upper level ridge in place over the central CONUS deamplifies/flattens (today-tonight).
Surface analysis indicates low level ridging and a drier airmass building in from the north as upper level ridging strengthens. Ensemble guidance in good agreement depicting upper ridging building across the central CONUS, with low level ridging building into our portion of the northern plains. -Showers & thunderstorms may start the weekend -Temperatures near normal values Water vapor indicates an upper wave currently over Utah, and guidance crashes this feature into the upper ridging.
1008 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 High pressure will persist across the region into the weekend.
720 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Most of the day will be dry as the area remains under northwest flow and weak high pressure. Models are currently focusing on mainly northern West Virginia and the southern ridges. Soundings are also developing a weak cap this afternoon as warmer air aloft overspreads the region. This disturbance will provide a bit more synoptic support for shower and thunderstorm activity, with greatest concentration over the higher terrain to the east. This wave then continues east of our are and serves as the driving mechanism in ejecting the parent upper low that has been sitting over eastern Canad out over the western Atlantic, which finally transitions the deep-layer flow over our area from northwesterly to more zonal.
652 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 High pressure will persist across the region into the weekend.
A trough just off the Eastern Seaboard is slowly shifting east in a response to a ridge across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. That being said, the flow is incredibly light through the lowest 10 to 15 thousand feet. Weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward across the Bahamas will maintain light mainly southeast breezes, becoming variable at times during the afternoon and evening hours, across the Florida Keys coastal waters through Friday night.
Temperatures will be similar to yesterday with highs in the upper 80s at the coast and into the low 90s inland. Partly to mostly clear skies lows will trend toward the lows inland and only toward the upper 70s at the coast due to a lingering component of onshore flow.
Morning mesoscale models continue to indicate the highest PoPs will be over the interior south of Orlando, where lingering moisture is the highest, with lower chances along the Volusia County coast, where PWATs are a bit lower. Lows in the mid to upper 70s, though onshore flow could keep some coastal locations in the lower 80s.
(Today and tonight) For the 5th day in a row now, the upper level ridge continues it's gradual shift eastward, and for today will shift over the ArkLaTex region, continuing the trend of another dry day with another slight increase in temperatures. With the gradual weakening of the upper level ridge during it's progression eastward, evening and overnight showers and storms along the periphery of the ridge will begin to shift into northern Oklahoma overnight. Chances will initially remain low (~25%), and will depend on the progression of the upper level ridge, as well as the amount the ridge becomes less amplified.
933 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 A low pressure system tracking from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley will spread showers and a few thunderstorms across the area through today. A cold front brings another chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday. A few scattered showers are ongoing across the area this morning associated with an upper wave approaching from the west along a warm front centered between an upper trough over the Atlantic and a ridge over the Southern Plains. However, with cooler temperatures expected, thinking thunderstorm coverage will be limited, but could see some a embedded storms capable of very localized heavy rainfall amounts. With ample cloud cover and rainfall expected, temperatures today will be well below normal with mountain locations likely staying in the 60s and lower elevations in the lower 70s.