Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today and tonight) A low-amplitude upper trough over the southern U. By late tonight, the main part of this flat trough will traverse across northern TX/southern OK.
After isolated showers and storms today, dry and cooler for the rest of the week courtesy of high pressure.
The higher rain chances will shift into the southern half of the forecast area by this afternoon.
(Today through Thursday) A short wave trough across the Great Lakes region was producing weak lift across the Gulf Coast states, resulting on an extensive area of mid level clouds.
Farther northeast, more insolation will allow for highs in the lower to mid 70s. 500mb temperatures around -11 to -12C and surface dewpoints in the lower 60s will be enough given the mid level cooling for the development of numerous showers and sub-severe thunderstorms.
(Today and tonight) Key Message: Drier and cooler air moving in during the period. Drier and cooler air will be moving in behind the front.
327 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Key Message: 1) Another morning of fog surveillance, then sfc ridging slides in for a fair wx regime into the end of the week with near to below seasonably normal temps.
A trough will be traversing eastward over the Great Lakes region, and its associated cold front across the Deep South.
Pattern Synopsis: Amplified troughing centered over Ontario and the Great Lakes will continue to pivot eastward through the period, placing northwest upper-level flow on the backside of the system overhead by the end of the period. At the surface, an associated weak cyclone will trek northeastward across Quebec through tonight. The main focus of the near term will come tonight as aforementioned high pressure centers itself directly over the region. Typical low-lying cold spots across the area -- Grayling, Atlanta, and Pellston to name a few -- could see localized temperature readings drop below freezing into the low 30s.
After tonight, high pressure will begin to build in over the region and quiet and clear weather will prevail. A weak upper level trough is moving across the forecast area today with the trough passage expected to occur overnight. Otherwise the main impact is just some increasing breezy westerly winds through this evening that then decrease after sunset with 60-80% chances of seeing sustained winds of 25-30 mph and gusts to 35-40 mph through the Cascades Gaps and along the Lower Columbia Basin. A ridge of high pressure will begin to rebuild over the region from the west on Wednesday. Winds shift to N-NE on Thursday as an offshore flow develops due to a thermal trough developing along the coast.
Subtropical moisture has now spread across the entire forecast area with the highest values along and south of I-70. The high res models highlight the potential for heavy across the southern half of the area this afternoon. The higher terrain should also be a focus for development as well.
124 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) We are seeing light showers ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Great weather is expected for tomorrow as upper level ridging begin to build into the area.
Skies were clear to partly cloudy with high level clouds were streaming west to east across the forecast area as high pressure aloft was situated over local area. Today through tonight the upper level ridging over the area will be flattened and pushed eastward as an upper level trough tracks across the northern Rockies today and into eastern Montana and the western Dakotas tonight. The highest of these low probabilities extend from eastern portions of Lake Sakakawea into southwest ND, with lower probabilities surrounding this area. High temperatures today will range from the lower 70s over eastern portions of central ND, to the lower 80s in the far west.
The likely area for fog development would be from a Wray to Leoti line and west with Eastern Colorado having the highest relative chance for dense fog. Tomorrow, any fog will slowly dissipate while cloud cover could linger in the southern half of the area as moisture is forecasted to continue to advect in and saturate the column in the lower levels.
This will help maintain a dry and cooler airmass across our region. The synoptic pattern late this week into the weekend will feature a building upper ridge across the Western U.
140 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 A slowly passing cold front and upper-level disturbance will bring isolated showers to the region overnight and then scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area on Wednesday afternoon and evening. The cold front will push southeast of the area Wednesday night, with fall-like weather arriving from late week into the weekend. Moisture will increase again over the weekend with a return of showers and thunderstorms as another cold front approaches from the northwest. The low-level flow will steadily turn toward northerly during the day on Wednesday as a cold front settles slowly southward through the forecast area. Better low-level theta e values and instability in profiles will be evident mainly east of the Blue Ridge mountains and south of I-40, where scattered afternoon thunderstorms should develop.
153 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 An approaching upper level trough and surface boundary will help focus some shower and storm activity across the area tonight. The trough will then linger Wednesday and provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms again. A cold front will push through late Wednesday night and Thursday and usher in cooler and drier air.
Model guidance is showing temperatures quite a bit warmer than yesterday thanks to a return of southerly flow. Forecast highs today are on the lower side of guidance which may still be a bit high considering we are not expecting to lose cloud cover this afternoon.
334 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 A deep cut off upper low continues to slowly meander over the Great Lakes today, maintaining cool October-like weather. Mainly sunny skies then follow for the daylight period Thursday as the center of the high tracks directly overhead. Remnant thermal troughing holds temps well below normal but the sunshine should at least allow for a rebound toward the upper 60s.
SPC Mesoanalysis highlights 850mb temps of +1-2C across the region, so the upslope flow is likely getting a lake enhancement given the warmer lake below. Coolest spots across the interior west and east are only in the low-mid 40s while lakeshore regions are in the upper 40s to mid 50s. -Dry and warmer Thursday.
This area of precipitation was generated by a short wave rounding the bottom of the upper trough that's swinging through the state. The upper trough axis should clear the eastern edge of the cwa by early afternoon, after which high pressure will build in. Bufkit RH progs show low levels drying out after 15z as the trough axis moves through. High pressure, clear skies, and light wind will help temperatures fall into the mid to upper 30s over the northern cwa to lower to mid 40s in the south.
332 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 A trough will linger across the Great Lakes through mid-week. High pressure will then build into the region through the end of the week and into the start of the weekend. A low pressure system may move across the Great Lakes towards the end of the weekend. An upper level trough continues to swing through the Great Lakes region today. The axis of this trough will be east of our area by tonight. Cooler air coming over Lake Erie will cause more lake effect clouds today into this evening as well as few lake effect rain showers. The center of a high pressure system will build in on Thursday with clearer skies but it remain cool with temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Stratus moving southward from central Wisconsin is limiting fog in our northern areas but cloud cover is not expected to move much further south as the upper trough is shifting east. North winds will increase slightly along the Lake Michigan shoreline behind the line of convection due to high pressure pushing southward into northeast Minnesota. The high will sag over Lake Michigan tonight.
158 AM MDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Current surface map places high pressure across the Upper Midwest with trough across Montana/eastern Wyoming.
(Today) The cold front that brought showers and a few thunderstorms to the local area yesterday is now positioned to our south and east across central Alabama into Northern Georgia. In its wake, post frontal cloud cover remains entrenched over much of the Tennessee Valley into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. As a result, afternoon highs today only peak in the lower 80s.
Dry conditions and a slight warming trend is then expected the remainder of the week and into the weekend with high pressure in control. Elsewhere, dry conditions will prevail with building high pressure. Lake enhanced showers diminish by sunset as the main trough axis swings through and subsidence builds overhead, leading to clearing skies and diminishing winds overnight. This combined with shallow boundary layer mixing will keep high temperatures cooler than normal with highs only in the upper 60s to near 70.
Dry conditions and a slight warming trend is then expected the remainder of the week and into the weekend with high pressure in control. Cool and dry air advection commences on Wednesday as our parent trough and associated trough axis swings south and eastward through the Great Lakes. The incoming air mass features 850hPa isotherms +5C to +6C and given Lake Erie waters +22C to +23C, we will comfortably meet the 13C delta-T difference to support lake enhanced rain showers as the trough axis arrives. Lake enhanced showers diminish by sunset as the main trough axis swings through and subsidence builds overhead, leading to clearing skies and diminishing winds overnight. This combined with shallow boundary layer mixing will keep high temperatures cooler than normal with highs only in the upper 60s to near 70.
230 AM MDT Wed Sep 13 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a series of troughs and ridges oriented along the International Border the first ridge is entering eastern Montana early this morning while it's first coupled trough sits over western Montana. Another ridge trough couplet sits just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest eager to join the march behind. Today through Tonight: A ridge will move through the area today bringing a warm front in the early morning along with west winds in by the afternoon hours. By the evening hours the ridge will exit with a cold front moving through on its heels.
This rainfall was associated with a cold front that pushed through the state and has slowed just to the south of the state.
1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Westerly flow aloft will continue over the short term with the upper level trough to our northeast and an upper level high to our southwest. Moisture advection will continue tomorrow allowing for cloud cover to stick around, therefore we can expect the cooler temperatures to continue in the 70s.
1120 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2023 19Z analysis shows an upper ridge over the region. Key Messages - Upper trough will bring PoPs back to CWA late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday For tonight through Wednesday mid-afternoon, the upper level ridge will keep quiet weather over the northern Plains. An amplifying thermal ridge will bring warm temperatures (around 5-10F warmer than average) for Wednesday afternoon with breezy southerly winds. For late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, an upper trough crossing the region will be accompanied by a surface cold front which will cross the forecast area on Wednesday night.
1117 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 An approaching upper level trough and surface boundary will help focus some shower and storm activity across the area this evening. The trough will then linger Wednesday and provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms again. A cold front will push through late Wednesday night and Thursday and usher in cooler and drier air.
125 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 A mid-level trough will move east through the Great Lakes tonight, with a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. As the trough moves east, cooler temperatures and drier conditions are expected through the end of the week. Despite a few lingering showers along the cold front across northeast KY and south central OH, main forecast challenge overnight will be extent of fog development. The base of the mid level trof to pivot east-southeast through the southern Great Lakes.
Expect temperatures to eventually fall into the lower 60s late tonight, although saying this with less certainty now given the cloud cover. This will keep a cooler, dry airmass in place and make for rather pleasant conditions through the mid-week period.
Quiet weather today and Wednesday as a short ridge moves overhead. Wednesday will be warmer with 850mb temperatures much warmer than today. The highest chance of thunderstorms will be in the southwest early in the morning.
Forecast Discussion: High pressure centered over central Nebraska and western Kansas dominates our weather today. The surface pattern shifts slightly tomorrow as high pressure slides east, however, sensible weather will be very similar to today with another enjoyable day expected. Temperatures may just be a touch warmer on Thursday due to slightly stronger low level flow and warmer temps aloft. A stronger mid level system moving through southern Canada toward the northern Great Lakes will then bring a trough and weak surface boundary through the area during this upcoming weekend.
For today and tonight s/w ridging will exist over the forecast area, along with the typical dry antecedent conditions that come with this pattern. However, the dry conditions will be short-lived as an upper trof digs toward the Northern Plains on Thursday. The upper trof and sfc front will slide across the forecast area on Thu/Thu evening.
The mid to upper level pattern throughout the short term period will consist of a ridge over the Northern Plains with more of a zonal flow over the Southern Plains. As for temperatures, lows tonight will generally dip into the low 50s with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 70s. Lows tomorrow night look to dip into the low to mid 50s.
This will result in an increasing pressure gradient and breezy southerly winds returning to the high plains of western Kansas. Southerly flow will also allow low level moisture to return across the high plains. This will keep some precipitation in the forecast with the higher probabilities across central and western Kansas once again. Looking ahead toward the middle of the week, another robust mid/upper trough is progged to develop over the Northern Intermountain region/Northern and Central Rockies which may help steer deeper moisture into the Central Plains region, bringing the potential for multiple rounds of showers and storms.
257 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Upper trough will then linger today, providing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will push through late Wednesday night and Thursday and usher in cooler and drier air.
Still to be determined is the potential for showers and storms to move off the terrain and into the lower valleys below. Overall though, the highest risk of heavy rain and potential flooding issues will remain across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, especially in the San Juan mountains, where moisture is deepest. The aformentioned (open-wave) trough will pass through the Great Basin and arrive over Utah by Thursday.
(Today through Thursday) An upper level trough is currently swinging across the Great Lakes will continue to rotate through the Ohio River Valley today. With the base of the trough generally north of Tennessee, the frontal boundary associated with this trough will struggle to make it much further than its current position today.
(Today and tonight) Flat ridging aloft will be in place over Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico. To the north of this ridge, our area will remain under quasi-zonal flow aloft today and tonight.
Rather cool through Thursday followed by slightly warmer temperatures late week. Upstream across northeast Iowa and southern Wisconsin is a secondary cold front and upper- level vorticity maximum. The thermal trough at 850 mb looks to clear the lake by midday, likely ending the lake effect shower chance soon after.
A trough will linger across the Great Lakes through mid-week. High pressure will then build into the region through the end of the week and into the start of the weekend. A low pressure system may move across the Great Lakes towards the end of the weekend. The cold front is progressing eastward across the area this afternoon, roughly drawn southwest to northeast along the I-71 corridor, extending northeast along the I-90 lakeshore.
-Cold front moves through Thursday bringing rain and chances for thunderstorms. Discussion: High pressure continues to move across the area today. An approaching upper level trough from Canada brings a trailing cold front Thursday.
Once the fog dissipates in the mid to late morning, expect Chamber of Commerce weather as Canadian high pressure builds in, with plenty of sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 70s today, and a clear and somewhat crisp night with Thu morning lows generally in the lower/mid 50s.
The ridge over the area, which has remained strong, will gradually weaken today due to the influence of Hurricane Lee and its outflow. Towards the end of the week and over the weekend, Hurricane Lee is expected to continue its northwestward movement, coinciding with the approach of a cold front towards the Panhandle of Florida and Central Florida.
215 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 A cold front has passed southward today and is draped across southeastern portions of the area. A trough associated with a closed low pressure system centered just north of the Great Lakes region, will continue to slowly push a weak frontal boundary southeast into the forecast area. Otherwise, under partly cloudy skies, lows tonight will range from the middle 60s to lower 70 and highs Wednesday afternoon will range from the lower 80s to lower 90s.
A cold front will move begin moving into northwest Nebraska Thursday bringing a chance for showers/thunder.
620 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 (Today through Thursday) The persistent mid-level ridge remains anchored across northern Mexico through the short term, keeping well above normal temperatures in place today and Thursday.
354 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather with temperatures warming back up to above normal values for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
830 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Upper trough will then linger today, providing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will push through late Wednesday night and Thursday and usher in cooler and drier air.
and Thursday Clouds have been slow to leave as there is still some jet energy rotating around the upper low, and low level flow across the lakes. Lows will be close to freezing at Land O Lakes and Tomahawk and in the middle 30s to low 40s elsewhere.
616 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Upper low pressure will track through the area and bring an increase in cloud cover today, but with ceilings generally remaining VFR. A deep cut off upper low continues to slowly meander over the Great Lakes today, maintaining cool October-like weather. Mainly sunny skies then follow for the daylight period Thursday as the center of the high tracks directly overhead. Remnant thermal troughing holds temps well below normal but the sunshine should at least allow for a rebound toward the upper 60s.
644 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Upper trough will then linger today, providing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will push through late Wednesday night and Thursday and usher in cooler and drier air.
225 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather with temperatures warming back up to above normal values for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
1045 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Upper trough will then linger today, providing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will push through late Wednesday night and Thursday and usher in cooler and drier air.
Temperatures will trend warmer across interior valleys during mid to late week.
This will make for a nice cool morning on Thursday followed by afternoon temperatures in the low 80s.
1045 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 A mid-level trough will move east through the Great Lakes today, as drier air moves into the Ohio Valley. Cooler temperatures and dry weather can be expected through the end of the week. High pressure will bring quiet weather for the rest of Thursday, with highs a degree or two warmer than Wednesday. Mid-level heights will be rising at the beginning of the period as a ridge sharpens between Lee and the next approaching short wave. This ridge will translate east as a short wave digs southeast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley over the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will continue to predominate early with fairly large diurnal ranges in the dry airmass.
720 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 (Today and tonight) Key Message: Drier and cooler air moving in during the period. Drier and cooler air will be moving in behind the front.
An upper ridge will begin to build over the region today. Warmer and drier conditions are expected for the rest of the upcoming week.
Warm and dry conditions prevail areawide through the remainder of the week as high pressure builds over the western US. A pattern change appears likely as early as this weekend, which may bring cooler temperatures and increased precipitation chances. High temperatures will run a couple degrees cooler than previous days under this cooler flow regime, which still falls near seasonal averages.
511 AM MDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Current surface map places high pressure across the Upper Midwest with trough across Montana/eastern Wyoming.
KBYX radar shows the most robust shower activity currently over the Straits of Florida off of the Upper Keys, however, a couple more showers were seen forming to the south of the Lower Keys. At the surface, the ridge over the Atlantic that extended southwestward into Florida is being pinched into by Hurricane Lee moving to the north. This has resulted in a split of the ridge with one piece remaining over the western North Atlantic northeast of Bermuda and the other over the Gulf of Mexico. From synopsis, generally, light to gentle northerly breezes will prevail through the end of this week due to Hurricane Lee passing well to the east of the Bahamas and a building high pressure later this week.
632 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 (Today and tonight) Flat ridging aloft will be in place over Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico. To the north of this ridge, our area will remain under quasi-zonal flow aloft today and tonight.
1018 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 A reinforcing cold front will pass through this afternoon through this evening.
646 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Rain showers will slowly pull out of the area this morning, as a cold front pushes through.
A weak and dry cold front will pass from NW to SE across the CWA later this afternoon and evening, which will leave drier and more stable air conditions late this evening and overnight.
Weak upper troughing moves through today as EPAC upper high builds into the PacNW. Upper high then builds more into NorCal Thursday. Weak upper troughing ahead of upper high moving through today brings a slight chance of an afternoon shower over higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, south of highway 88.
High pressure centered in the central Gulf of Mexico will keep light NNW winds and pleasant weather over the area this morning. Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations are showing sunny skies and temps in the low to mid 80's. Latest HRRR model guidance keeps rain and storm chances on the lower side this afternoon with the highest chances over SW Florida and the interior.
Key Message: 1) Another morning of fog surveillance, then sfc ridging slides in for a fair wx regime into the end of the week with near to below seasonably normal temps.