Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
101 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023 Low pressure will track into the lower Ohio Valley today, then into the eastern Great Lakes tonight. Slow moving low pressure system will gradually work its way through the Midwest region throughout the day. Combined with the weak forcing from the low pressure, majority of our CWA will continue to observe periods of light rain/drizzle throughout the day. Temperatures won't increase much throughout the day, topping off in the lower to middle 50s. Another embedded s/wv and associated low level jet surge will bring at least a chance of showers to the region overnight, with the highest chance expected across the north and northwest where vertical lift will be the strongest. A weak frontal boundary trailing from the low will move east into our region.
1248 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023 Low pressure near Saint Louis, Missouri early this afternoon will move to the lower Ohio Valley tonight, but then will weaken as it moves north of our area through Saturday.
The surface weather map shows the exiting area of high pressure across central MN extending a ridge to areas mainly east of the James River. Low pressure will be nearing from the Black Hills area.
Low pressure continues to move slowly into the west, so the lower clouds will stick around overnight. Tomorrow is expected to be slightly warmer, with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
The highest rainfall totals will likely occur in Del Norte County, with lighter totals expected southward toward Lake County. In addition, moderate southerly winds will impact exposed coastal ridges and and headlands. Winds are also forecast to become marginally gusty later tonight across Humboldt/Del Norte coastal headlands and exposed ridges.
No weather impacts are expected overnight tonight as lows fall into the low to mid 20s. Upper troughing digging into the Rockies and Plains over the weekend will bring some high and mid clouds, but not much else to our area. Thus, leaned a bit on the higher side of the ensemble spread and have mid 30s for highs across much of the ND side, and some upper 30s not out of the question. The winds and periodic cloud cover will also keep overnight lows warmer than climo, staying in the upper teens and low 20s.
(Tonight through Saturday night) An upper level disturbance/low amplitude 500-mb trough is expected to move across the Southern Plains/TX and provide synoptic scale lift late tonight through Saturday afternoon (GFS/ECMWF 700-300mb Q-vector convergence) over the CWA. Based on MSAS trends, a weak frontal boundary/trough is located over the nearshore waters, and has contributed to isolated/scattered convective activity over the Coastal Bend/Victoria Crossroads and adjacent waters.
A cold front will move through the Midsouth tonight likely stalling across north Mississippi.
825 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 Areas of dense fog have developed east of the MS River this evening ahead of a cold front that is currently draped over eastern Arkansas. ANS A cold front will move through the Midsouth tonight likely stalling across north Mississippi.
This will translate into warmer temps tonight with lows in the upper 60s inland and low-mid 70s near the coasts. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s across the east coast metros, with upper 60s further inland.
Accumulations in the Snake Plain aren't overly impressive tomorrow as temperatures will be warmer and only 1-2 inches of snow appear likely but the greater concern will be the gusty winds. Given ample snow already on the ground, decided to run with another Winter Weather Advisory in this area for tomorrow given the high likelihood of blowing and drifting of snow. In the high country, where the Winter Storm Warning has been issued, expecting significant accumulations above 6500 ft as well as gusty winds so blowing and drifting will also be a huge concern making travel extremely difficult, if not impossible. Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be a few degrees warmer, which obviously contributes to the aforementioned precip-type challenges, but will remain on the cool side of normal ranging from the upper 20s to upper 30s.
904 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023 Slow moving low pressure system keeps light rain in the forecast through Friday night. Continued weak ascent in the abundantly moist, mild environment southeast of the low keeps the chance for light showers/sprinkles in the forecast for a good chunk of the overnight. As we near sunrise, the low should have weakened enough that most showers should come to an end, although some mist and visibility reductions could hang around in the stagnant airmass. As we head into Saturday evening, a low pressure system to the south will push moisture up into our northern KY and southern OH counties.
Scattered very light showers/sprinkles continue across much of the KILX CWA in association with the low. As the low tracks slowly northeastward into the Great Lakes, a trailing frontal boundary will sag into central Illinois tonight. Grand Ensemble mean probabilities for visbys less than 1/4 mile peak at 50-60 percent from Bloomington eastward to Paxton this evening, with the higher probs decreasing and shifting southward overnight. Low temperatures tonight will range from the middle 30s in the Illinois River Valley to the lower 40s along/east of I-57. Highs on Saturday will mostly be in the lower to middle 40s, but will climb into the upper 40s south of I-70.
605 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 * Possible drizzle/fog or Freezing drizzle/fog for south central KS Saturday morning. There is some concern about some patchy dense fog/freezing fog over south central KS for late tonight or early on Sat, given the wet soils from recent rainfall combined with light easterly winds, but think there is only a small window for this fog to develop, as low clouds increase ahead of the next system Sat morning. Gonna have to keep an eye on surface temps as the drizzle/fog moves in, as some areas across central KS, may still be close to freezing for a few hours Sat morning. So will mention a drizzle/freezing drizzle chance for a few hours after sunrise, until surface temps can climb above freezing.
551 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) An upper level disturbance/low amplitude 500-mb trough is expected to move across the Southern Plains/TX and provide synoptic scale lift late tonight through Saturday afternoon (GFS/ECMWF 700-300mb Q-vector convergence) over the CWA. Based on MSAS trends, a weak frontal boundary/trough is located over the nearshore waters, and has contributed to isolated/scattered convective activity over the Coastal Bend/Victoria Crossroads and adjacent waters.
(This evening through Saturday Night) At 2PM, surface obs, satellite imagery and surrounding radar were showing a weak cold front extending along the coastal counties/islands and a cluster of showers and thunderstorms developing over the Coastal Bend/Matagorda Bay.
Saturday morning conditions will be dry however as we move into the afternoon another upper level trough will move through the Plains into the area bringing another round of light rain tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening.
523 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 (This evening through Saturday) An upper level short wave trough over Arizona and Utah early this afternoon will move across the Four Corners region tonight and will be just west of the forecast area at sunrise Saturday before quickly moving to the east of the area by noon. Quiet weather ahead of the upper trough tonight and early Saturday will give way to windy conditions in the wake of the trough and its associated mid level cloud cover. Meanwhile downsloping winds will help offset cold advection in the wake of the trough. As a result highs tomorrow should be similar to today across the western half of the forecast while to the east 5 to 10 degrees warmer will be possible.
- Areas of dense freezing fog are expected early Saturday morning.
(This evening through Saturday Night) Fair skies unfolding for much of our Four-State area with some elevating stratocu S of I-20, lifting into the lower mid levels from Lufkin to Monroe soon. In fact this diagonal swath of clouds will linger into much of tomorrow and tomorrow night as well with highs seeing a range of 60s from the cooler NW to warmer SE.
641 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) Fair skies unfolding for much of our Four-State area with some elevating stratocu S of I-20, lifting into the lower mid levels from Lufkin to Monroe soon. In fact this diagonal swath of clouds will linger into much of tomorrow and tomorrow night as well with highs seeing a range of 60s from the cooler NW to warmer SE.
610 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 A cold front will move through the Midsouth tonight likely stalling across north Mississippi.
533 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) At 2PM, surface obs, satellite imagery and surrounding radar were showing a weak cold front extending along the coastal counties/islands and a cluster of showers and thunderstorms developing over the Coastal Bend/Matagorda Bay.
643 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023 Key message: Dry and seasonable weather expected through Saturday High clouds are expected over the eastern half of the Upper Peninsula tonight on the northern edge of a low pressure system over Illinois. Clouds will increase from west to east Saturday as an upper trough approaches from the Northern Plains.
241 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023 High temperatures today in the San Joaquin Valley will be in the high 50s to the low 60s, which is right around normal for this time of year.
605 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023 Slow moving low pressure system keeps light rain in the forecast through Friday night. Slow moving low pressure system will gradually work its way through the Midwest region today and tonight. Bufkit soundings continue to highlight ample low level moisture trapped in the lowest several thousand feet. This moisture, combined with the weak forcing from the low pressure, will lead to periods of light rain/drizzle through today and the beginning of the overnight hours. As we head into Saturday evening, a low pressure system to the south will push moisture up into our northern KY and southern OH counties.
Southwest low level flow will continue to pump moisture into the region overnight into Saturday as a cold front moves slowly eastward toward the region. Temperatures will remain fairly steady, if not rise a few degrees overnight with warm advection in the low levels. Continued mild on Saturday with the lower elevations likely reaching the 60 degree mark. Despite the stronger southwest flow aloft, an inversion should keep winds rather light at the surface except for some higher gusts on the ridges. Temperatures should be warm enough on Sunday that the bulk of precipitation should be in the form of rain, but periods of light snow are possible across the higher terrain, with little to no snow accumulation expected.
(The rest of tonight) PErsistent low level stratus on the back side of the exiting upper low that brought showers and storms to the area is forecast to stick around through much of the night across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
/16/ (This evening through Saturday Night) Fair skies unfolding for much of our Four-State area with some elevating stratocu S of I-20, lifting into the lower mid levels from Lufkin to Monroe soon. In fact this diagonal swath of clouds will linger into much of tomorrow and tomorrow night as well with highs seeing a range of 60s from the cooler NW to warmer SE. Finally tomorrow evening will see skies clearing out areawide with a cooler range of 30s and 40s expected in the predawn hours on Sunday.
Persistent southwest flow at H850 will provide WAA today with afternoon highs reaching 60 degrees at some spots across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 40s higher elevations. Temperatures should be warm enough on Sunday that the bulk of precipitation should be in the form of rain, but periods of light snow are possible across the higher terrain, with little to no snow accumulation expected.
Additionally, winds could shift to more northwesterly, bringing in slightly cooler air and despite solar heating, high temperatures remaining mostly in the lower to middle 60s for locations such as Odessa and Midland. This cooler air coming in will definitely be felt Saturday night into Sunday morning, when low temperatures across the area will be noticeably colder than tonight, with below freezing temperatures indicated for the Trans Pecos, Davis, and Glass Mountains, much of southeastern New Mexico, and the the northern Permian Basin.
200 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Rockies and northern plains which will move east into the plains by 00z Sun.
We remained well warmer than initially anticipated, as the temperatures yesterday increased and clouds overnight kept us warmer. Sunday, we will be on the back end of the system, as the low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes Region. For the most part, we will range from the mid 30s in the north to the lower 40s in our south.
A broad trough, moving slowly eastward through the central US, will promote minor height rises across the region today. This weak ridging will help to push a quasi-stationary boundary a bit further north. Warmer air will push northward under increasing southwest flow. Another weak system will move northeastward from the Tennessee Valley into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. This will return rain chances to the region with the highest probabilities to the south and east of Pittsburgh. This northern low will have more upper level support with it, but because it is moving north of the region, the highest probabilities for rain will be across the northern half of the forecast area.
Temperatures across the area range from the low 20s in west-central Minnesota, to the upper 20s in the Devils Lake Basin. No weather impacts are expected overnight tonight as lows fall into the low to mid 20s. Upper troughing digging into the Rockies and Plains over the weekend will bring some high and mid clouds, but not much else to our area. Thus, leaned a bit on the higher side of the ensemble spread and have mid 30s for highs across much of the ND side, and some upper 30s not out of the question. The winds and periodic cloud cover will also keep overnight lows warmer than climo, staying in the upper teens and low 20s.
(Today through Sunday Night) On Saturday, an upper lvl trof is on approach to the Natural State with strong southwesterly flow over Arkansas. At the sfc, a low pressure center will be located across Oklahoma with an attendant warm front positioned to the east along with an attendant cold front extending southwestward along the I-44 corridor in Oklahoma. Temperatures will remain warmer than climatological normals for this time of the year as the warm front will assist in promoting an overall warmer airmass ahead of the cold front. A moisture starved cold front will move across Arkansas.
1050 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) At 2PM, surface obs, satellite imagery and surrounding radar were showing a weak cold front extending along the coastal counties/islands and a cluster of showers and thunderstorms developing over the Coastal Bend/Matagorda Bay.
Patchy freezing fog is also possible in locations that have fallen below freezing.
Drier air has set up in the lower levels across the western and northern portions of our forecast area. PVA and 300 mb warm advection will overspread srn WI from west to east, but once again the low level temperature profile is making pcpn type difficult.
200 AM EST Sat Dec 02 2023 A front will remain quasi-stationary over the Piedmont of the Carolinas through tonight, then get swept eastward and offshore by a passing cold front Sunday and Sunday night. Warmer east of the boundary, with some 70s in the SE. Low pressure will track NE from the Gulf Coast to off the SC coast tonight. Highs generally from the 50s NW ranging into the lower 70s in the SE. The cold front will bring drier and cooler air late Sunday into Sunday night. The mid/upper level disturbance and surface cold front move into the mountains Sunday. The cold front will shift east of the mountains Sunday afternoon and pass across central NC Sunday night. Clearing and cooler conditions are expected Sunday night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s.
Mean layer ridging is back in control across the Keys. There were a few light showers late this afternoon which crossed the Lower Keys, since then all quiet on the KBYX radar. High pressure will continue to slide east across the west-central North Atlantic over the next several days.
For areas that are getting snow, air temps are still right around freezing but road surface temperatures are sub-freezing.
(Today through Sunday) Warm and dry conditions remain the status quo through the weekend, as upper ridging continues to build.
357 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 Low pressure will move overhead Sunday with its associated cold front moving through the area Sunday afternoon.
As low pressure ejects out of the Plains later today, it will drive a cold front into/across the PAH FA later tonight and Sunday. We stay in the warm sector as the low tracks to our north and west, so it's an all liquid event here.
While the low levels have remained saturated (as evidenced by the drizzle), point soundings indicate the mid-levels saturate from southwest to northeast throughout the afternoon as a mid-level trough axis across the central Plains shifts east.
The surface weather map shows the exiting area of high pressure across central MN extending a ridge to areas mainly east of the James River. Low pressure will be nearing from the Black Hills area. The main low over southwestern Canada and northern MT will slowly extend the trough over western SD to eastern SD through Sunday morning.
(Today through Sunday) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level ridge anchored across Caribbean and an upper level trough sliding across the Plains. This boundary may meander back towards the coast a bit this morning before a reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes to south of our area. Northwesterly winds in the wake of our high pressure surge will bring drier air into the region with PWATs falling to less than 0. Cooler temps are in store tonight with lows dipping into the low 40s to mid 50s.
Persistent southwest flow at H850 will provide WAA today with afternoon highs reaching 60 degrees at some spots across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 40s higher elevations. Rain will be possible as these systems move by, though coverage should gradually decrease from south to north as low pressure recedes late Sunday. If light precipitation lingers along the mountains Sunday night, a transition from rain to snow could eventually occur as temperatures trend cooler.
144 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Rockies and northern plains which will move east into the plains by 00z Sun.
There will be pretty decent lift ahead of the trough, leading to increased cloud cover and possible rain chances this morning and early afternoon. The increased mid and upper level moisture ahead of the trough, along with the lift, will provide a slight chance for rain. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 30s, but some areas could drop to near freezing.
1216 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 Key message: Dry and seasonable weather expected through Saturday High clouds are expected over the eastern half of the Upper Peninsula tonight on the northern edge of a low pressure system over Illinois. Clouds will increase from west to east Saturday as an upper trough approaches from the Northern Plains.
Highs today should warm up quite a bit in the western CWA with highs in the lower to middle 70s expected. With the lower cloud cover continuing in the southeast for much of the day, temperatures there should remain in the 60s for the most part. The upper trough responsible for the upper cloud cover will shift east and this will allow the high clouds to clear from northwest to southeast. This will allow for lows to drop into the lower 40s for most locations.
As the center of an area of low pressure works it's way through the CWA early Saturday morning, any lingering precipitation will wrap around the backside of the low. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 40s. We will see mostly rain late Saturday night into Sunday, as temperatures will be above freezing in the upper 30s, but some snowflakes could mix in at times near the Michigan stateline.
1143 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 Areas of dense fog have developed east of the MS River this evening ahead of a cold front that is currently draped over eastern Arkansas. ANS A cold front will move through the Midsouth tonight likely stalling across north Mississippi.
Dense cloud cover will also limit temperatures from rising much and they will likely peak in the low to mid 60s by this afternoon.
The tail end of the band of rain will be exiting the area through the morning hours on Sunday as a cold front ushers in much drier air and surface ridging begins to nudge into the area.
1033 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 (The rest of tonight) PErsistent low level stratus on the back side of the exiting upper low that brought showers and storms to the area is forecast to stick around through much of the night across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
The trough will prevent any thermal advection in either direction thus we should be locked in with temps similar to yesterday with highs around 40. Pattern remains active with several waves reinforcing the upper level trough which is stretching from the Plains toward the Great Lakes by Sunday.
1012 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 (This evening through Saturday) An upper level short wave trough over Arizona and Utah early this afternoon will move across the Four Corners region tonight and will be just west of the forecast area at sunrise Saturday before quickly moving to the east of the area by noon. Quiet weather ahead of the upper trough tonight and early Saturday will give way to windy conditions in the wake of the trough and its associated mid level cloud cover. Meanwhile downsloping winds will help offset cold advection in the wake of the trough. As a result highs tomorrow should be similar to today across the western half of the forecast while to the east 5 to 10 degrees warmer will be possible.
(Today through Sunday) 500mb low pressure trough moves east across Texas today as mid- level kicker trough digs into northwest Mexico Sunday maintaining a general mid- upper level southwest flow over N Mexico and S Texas this weekend. After the low clouds and patchy fog lift mid to late morning, sufficient warming from the Sun is expected even though a rather thick cirrus shield is likely to keep the Sun filtered. Tonight fair skies and cool temperatures to overspread the region with most locals in the low to mid 50s to near 60 degrees in the Lower RGV and at the coast.
High pressure was in control across the western Great Lakes and it extended down into the Lower Missouri Valley as well. Light southeasterly winds and increasing clouds will prevail through the day with highs in the lower to middle 30s. Snow chances will end by late Sunday morning as the low moves away from the region, leaving partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the lower to middle 30s.
Have a wonderful Saturday! (Today through Sunday) Warm and dry conditions remain the status quo through the weekend, as upper ridging continues to build.
An approaching trough of low pressure towards the middle of the upcoming week will bring the return of unsettled weather. Another cool afternoon is in store with temperatures struggle to warm much beyond the mid 60s across the interior, upper 50s elsewhere and upper 40s to lower 50s in the highest peaks. Tonight, look for temperatures to cool into the lower 50s in the hills and around the San Francisco Bay Shoreline to the mid 40s elsewhere.
The cold front is still off to the west and is slowly making progress towards the area. After the front pushes through tomorrow, drier conditions will spread into the area for Sunday with temperatures remaining near 70 across most of the area before a cooler night Sunday night.