Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level ridging centered over the four corners region will continue to provide convective suppression across the region through the weekend allowing for only very isolated thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon or early evening. As the ridge expands further across the region, afternoon highs will continue to climb with triple digits expected across most of the region by Sunday. Jones (Tonight through Sunday night) Although this morning's RAOB indicated the low to mid levels had moistened up overnight, very little convection has been able to capitalize. Both high pressure ridges will work in tandem to maximize daytime heating over the coming days. As the upper ridge over the cenUS expands to the southeast this weekend, north to northwest flow aloft will return, ushering down a continental airmass.
1235 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the southern Rockies/southern Plains to begin the period. Under the ridge, above normal temperatures will continue locally, and chances of rain will be little to none. As the period progresses, it appears the ridge will amplify to our west. A cold front will ride the flow toward Arkansas, and may reach northeast sections of the state on Sunday.
A bit of troughiness in the mid levels over north Florida will help support scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day and into the evening today.
Temperatures will return to the climatological average Sunday with a passing cold front, drier weather will follow. This was also being maintained by a crossing upper trough, seen on the 00Z RAOBS and the latest mesoanalysis. Chances diminish late afternoon/early evening with the progression of the cold front. By Saturday night and into Sunday, the cold front mentioned in the near term is expected to slowly sag further south with the push of another passing trough across the Great Lakes. This will usher in some much needed drier and cooler air but only enough for near normal temperatures. A few showers and storms are still possible across WV by Sunday afternoon but an extended dry period will begin with approaching ridging. Persistent pattern will continue with large upper high over TX/OK area with trough across the Northeast and Great Lakes States.
Lows will be on the warmer side with temperatures in the middle to upper 70s for most areas. Upper ridging will remain centered over the Desert Southwest with a weak upper trough situated along the southeastern seaboard. Down at the surface, high pressure over the northern Gulf maintains a mostly light and mainly southerly surface flow over the area. The main thing on Saturday will be the heat as temperatures climb into the middle and upper 90s inland and the lower 90s along the immediate coast.
Ridging will continue to control the weather and bring more hot temperatures to the area.
This will occur as the Desert Southwest heat dome expands northward and downstream troughing asserts itself over the Northeast.
1136 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) An upper ridge centered over the 4 Corners region which extends across the lower Mississippi River valley will remain generally in place through the period while an upper trof gradually strengthens over the interior eastern states. Lows tonight range from the lower to mid 70s well inland to the upper 70s/around 80 at the coast.
(Tonight through Saturday Night) Partly cloudy and a little warmer this mid evening with a better showing of isolated showers and a couple of TS late today in a few parishes and even a TX county or two. We expect the light SE wind to continue for most locales overnight which should make for a slightly warmer sunrise.
This should be the last day of the miserable heat as our flow aloft will shift back out of the NW and the potent ridge over TX/NM/CO will finally deteriorate. Models have this upper-level low hanging around through mid-week with the trough axis gradually shifting from west to east. Effective shear is on the lower side as it tends to be with these systems around 15-20kts.
1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (Tonight through Saturday Night) Partly cloudy and a little warmer this mid evening with a better showing of isolated showers and a couple of TS late today in a few parishes and even a TX county or two. We expect the light SE wind to continue for most locales overnight which should make for a slightly warmer sunrise.
Low level moisture from the High Plains has moved across the divide.
Predawn readings ranged fm the 70s to the lower 80s.
High pressure should dominate the weather scene bringing subsidence and dry air. Highs today will be much closer to normal in the lower to middle 80s. A ridge aloft will remain somewhat stationary over the southern tier of the country nosing up into much of the west as well. An upper low will be situated over Eastern Canada which will place the Great Lakes in a northwest flow.
(Today through Sunday) The upper level disturbance/inverted trough is expected to move west of the region today/tonight, with the upper ridge building over the CWA Sunday. Not as confident for Sunday, owing to the building upper ridge/slight decrease in moisture.
(Today through Sunday) Above normal warmth continues today with highs forecast to range from the mid 90s in the highest elevations of the Hill Country to near 103 degrees along the Rio Grande and favored hot spots along the I-35 corridor.
As an upper ridge pattern lingers, temperatures are forecast to rise into the mid 90s within our eastern areas to upper 90s/100 in our western areas with heat indices across the TN Valley reaching 101-108 degrees. Thunderstorm activity along the front associated with the low pressure system over the Great Lakes region has a potential to make it into the TN Valley in the form of an outflow boundary.
The upper levels will keep us between ridging to the west and troughing to the east. Into Sunday the high will push in overhead with the upper levels remaining largely the same. Otherwise the weekend looks much cooler, comparatively, to the last several days with most of the area likely staying dry making for a beautiful weekend.
225 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Strong high pressure over the Southwest will maintain warm to hot weather this weekend inland, while the marine layer and onshore flow keep it cooler, and somewhat humid over coastal areas, with periods of night and morning low clouds and fog.
-Enriquez PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: To the northeast a large area of relatively cool high pressure lies over the Hudson Bay with a weak trough extending back west across the central and southern Canadian Prairie Provinces. To the south hot, high pressure lies anchored over the Four Corners with a ridge jutting north through through Idaho. West of this a closed low has formed off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia which is dragging pacific moisture up and around the jet flow along the International Boarder.
Given the higher cloud cover existing across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas and yesterday's relatively cooler high temperatures compared to much of the guidance, have elected to reduce today's forecast highs across much of the area today, tweaking them slightly from the 75th percentile values from the current NBM run.
559 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (Today through Sunday) The mid level ridge strengthens through the weekend with slightly increasing low level moisture. As the ridge builds into Sunday, expect less seabreeze activity, less cloud cover, and highs notching a degree or two more than today.
934 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 A cold front (more of a wind shift to the northwest) will move south and cross the Ohio River this afternoon. High pressure will then build into the region on Sunday, moderate temperatures, and most importantly lower humidity levels. The cold front will lay out along the Ohio, and there could be enough instability ahead of it to initiate shower and thunderstorm activity with daytime heating. High pressure and a somewhat drier and cooler airmass will settle into the area tonight into Sunday. Bit of a pattern shift is expected sometime mid-week when a longwave trough begins to dig down from western Canada.
617 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Today will mark the start of a relatively quiet period as upper- level troughing becomes established across the Upper Great Lakes and the effective warm front modulated by convective outflow continues moving southward toward the Ohio River Valley. However, surface temperatures today will be much cooler than the past few days with highs expected to top off in the mid 80s. With upper-level troughing more established by Sunday, highs should be a hair cooler than today and near the 80 degree mark.
944 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 An inverted trough was moving over South Texas this morning with GOES R-Sonder indicating 2" precipitable water values just off the Texas coast. Temperatures will not be as hot today with the inverted trough overhead and added cloud cover. Dwpts were much more pleasant in the lower 70s along the mid coast this morning, and thus we may struggle to reach Heat Advisory thresholds. (Today through Sunday) The upper level disturbance/inverted trough is expected to move west of the region today/tonight, with the upper ridge building over the CWA Sunday. Not as confident for Sunday, owing to the building upper ridge/slight decrease in moisture.
Relatively quiet early this morning as upper ridge remains situated across the region. Shower and thunderstorm development will initially be focused over and near the higher terrain by midday with this general trend continuing through early afternoon. Lee troughing expected across southeast Colorado by mid afternoon, with strengthening low/mid level convergence and southeasterly low level flow appearing likely. The extent of any organized development and higher intense storm is somewhat lower in this location given the anticipated upper ridging with weakening flow. That being said, think locations along and north of the Highway 50 corridor will have the potential to be on the northern fringe of the upper ridging and weaker flow. Model guidance does try and break the upper ridge down a bit as energy moves across Colorado late in the period.
325 AM MDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge. Given that the Tri-State area will remain in a weak synoptic forcing regime, on the north and northeastern periphery of the ridge, at the far southern fringe of the westerlies.
607 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level ridge, positioned to our west, will start to build back up after its brief weakening period. However, an inverted trough, currently located over Mexico, will try and make its way into south Texas today. The inverted trough will act to partially balance the strengthening ridge, leading to high temperatures just slightly above yesterday's. Once again, the forecast remains dry as the high pressure dominates our weather.
627 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (Today through Sunday) The upper level disturbance/inverted trough is expected to move west of the region today/tonight, with the upper ridge building over the CWA Sunday. Not as confident for Sunday, owing to the building upper ridge/slight decrease in moisture.
High pressure has settled towards the Four Corners and will gradually push to the east over the next several days.
Clear areas further west around Langdon have dropped into the low 40s, but should already start coming up as the sun rises.
645 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (Today through Sunday) Above normal warmth continues today with highs forecast to range from the mid 90s in the highest elevations of the Hill Country to near 103 degrees along the Rio Grande and favored hot spots along the I-35 corridor.
614 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (Today and tonight) Stuck in the summer doldrums for the weather today is yesterday's tomorrow as the center of the subtropical ridge remains over the Four Corners region. Similar temperatures are expected again today, with surface winds backing to the southeast this afternoon as a weak cyclone forms in southern Colorado. Winds will oscillate to the southwest later tonight as the aforementioned lee cyclone gradually rotates to the east while remaining dry.
A weak low pressure system over Georgia will lift slowly eastward today and off the South Carolina coast tonight. Afternoon temperatures will be a little warmer today due to a westerly surface wind, with heat index values 104 to 108.
Latest guidance still shows the highest chances across the interior and over towards the Gulf coast, hopefully giving the Naples area some much needed rainfall. Temperatures begin on a warming trend rising into the low to mid 90s with heat indices rising into triple digits. On Sunday, the interior and southwestern portions of South Florida are likely to experience the highest rainfall rates and the most favorable conditions for showers and thunderstorms due to the prevailing southeasterly flow.
Monsoon moisture remains in place this morning with the bulk of the moisture residing from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains southward across the lower desert region of Arizona. High pressure has settled towards the Four Corners and will gradually push to the east over the next several days.
High pressure stretched from the Canadian Prairies into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon with dry conditions across the Northland.
Warmer day tomorrow with high temps in the 80s/90s and widespread 60s/low 70s dewpoints. Temps will remain at or around seasonal norms, perhaps a little on the cooler side, esp toward the end of the week when the central Canadian upper low supports a backdoor cool front further south and west.
(Tomorrow through Saturday) Non zero chance a few showers or storms along the periphery of the upper ridge clips parts of far NW AR, but will not include any mention at this time. Upper ridge will continue to expand over the next few days, and will keep convective chances further east. With the ridge centering nearly overhead, afternoon temperatures will be even hotter.
Meanwhile, our region continues to be under the influence of surface and upper level high pressures; one located to our east over the Atlantic, and the other to our west over the northern Gulf. Afternoon high temps will be in the low to mid 90s, and combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s to near 80, will result in peak heat indices of 100-110. Afternoon high temps will again be in the low to mid 90s with max heat indices ranging from 100-110 degrees.
Beyond midnight, CAMs guidance is also suggesting more showers and thunders moving in from southern Alberta and the higher terrain of central Montana through early Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon, storm initiation occurs again over the higher terrain of western Montana.
1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 An inverted trough was moving over South Texas this morning with GOES R-Sonder indicating 2" precipitable water values just off the Texas coast. Temperatures will not be as hot today with the inverted trough overhead and added cloud cover. Dwpts were much more pleasant in the lower 70s along the mid coast this morning, and thus we may struggle to reach Heat Advisory thresholds. (Today through Sunday) The upper level disturbance/inverted trough is expected to move west of the region today/tonight, with the upper ridge building over the CWA Sunday. Not as confident for Sunday, owing to the building upper ridge/slight decrease in moisture.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Mid-level ridge will continue to build into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley over the course of the weekend. While areas in the Lower Rio Grande Valley and along the coast will see high temperatures in the upper 90s.
(This evening through Sunday) A weak area of high pressure will linger over MS through the short term with northwesterly flow across the central and eastern part of the state.
High pressure will slide into the Great Lakes region out of Canada. Highs on Sunday mainly in the lower to mid 80s.
/Issued 1239 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023/ /This Afternoon Through Sunday/ A strong mid-level ridge will continue to keep hot, rain-free weather in place this weekend. Temperatures will top out in the mid 90s to near 105 across the region this afternoon, but a slight eastward shift in the center of the ridge will result in even warmer temperatures on Sunday.
Also canceled our heat advisory for today given the lower dwpts. Expect hotter conditions on Sunday as the upper ridge builds back over South Texas resulting in a need for Heat Advisories for much of the region once again.
(This evening through Sunday night) High pressure will build over the area this weekend, keeping rain chances fairly isolated/limited. Thanks to the higher humidites and light winds, feels like temperatures are between 108-112 generally tonight and tomorrow. Locally heavy rainfall could be possible inside of a strong storm, especially due to the lower shear.
While these may have put a damper on Saturday plans, this storm system brought much cooler air breaking the streak of excessively hot conditions over the past few days. The upper level pattern shows little movement as the upper level high pressure across the SW CONUS continues to linger in the region.
Temperatures are coolest along the immediate coast, it's warmer inland especially in the hills and mountains within the marine layer temperature inversion. (Today and tonight) No real change to the large-scale pattern with upper low pressure over the northeast Pacific and subtropical ridging centered over Arizona and New Mexico. Our area will remain along the ridge periphery with southwest flow aloft and periodic bouts of mid-high clouds as weak perturbations rotate around the high pressure center. Highs will be seasonal with 60s and 70s for the coast and coast-adjacent valleys, while warmer 80s and 90s prevail inland. Low tonight will dip into the 50s for the low elevations with 60s to around 70 in the hills.
Key Messages: * Most if not all of the area to remain dry this weekend * Cooler and less humid today, though still a few degrees above normal south of I-80; seasonable values area-wide on Sunday The composite outflow/frontal zone is draped near the far southern forecast area (Iowa/Missouri border) early this morning. Low clouds (~1-2,000 ft) in the northern CWA this morning associated with the low-level cool advection may be slow to depart through the morning hours. Temperatures will moderate into the 80s for most, with 90s possible in the far southern CWA where a warmer starting point (mid 70s) to the day prevails.
415 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Widespread showers and drenching thunderstorms in association with an area of low pressure tracking along a cold front will continue through this evening before exiting later tonight. High pressure will bring a return to more tranquil weather on Sunday along with a significantly drier and cooler airmass.
151 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 One more day of thunderstorms with locally heavy rain and strong winds before the pattern turns noticeably cooler and drier/less humid to close out July and begin August. Max heat index values trended slightly lower today across the Lower Susquehanna Valley (upper 90s) and therefore no heat advisory was issued. Noticeably cooler and pleasant conditions are expected to close out the month of July. Looking to start August off on a bit of a cooler and less stormy pattern. However the overall large scale pattern remains similar, with the upper level ridge to the west. 12Z models still show a break in the upper level ridges over the TN valley at even at 10 days out, supporting the idea that the upper level pattern not likely to change much.
Gusty winds up to 35 mph will develop this afternoon in southeast Oregon and the higher elevations of southwest Idaho.
1232 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level ridge, positioned to our west, will start to build back up after its brief weakening period. However, an inverted trough, currently located over Mexico, will try and make its way into south Texas today. The inverted trough will act to partially balance the strengthening ridge, leading to high temperatures just slightly above yesterday's. Once again, the forecast remains dry as the high pressure dominates our weather.
340 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 A cold front will drop in from the north, bringing showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. While still warm today, temperatures will be cooler and dry starting Sunday with high pressure. A line of showers with heavy rain is ahead of a cold front moving into south central NY.
Temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon as the ridge continues to dominate weather patterns. Possible showers and thunderstorms will impact the NW portion of TN this evening due to a cold front moving over TN. Cooler temps and increased chances for storm development are expected for the following days.
This high is bringing pleasant conditions with high current temperatures in the upper 70s to the upper 80s and dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. 850 mb temperatures remain in the mid teens aloft, albeit a touch warmer than Saturday's temperatures. Mixing this to the surface results in slightly warmer high temperatures again in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The work week begins with an upper level ridge sitting over the southern Plains. 850 mb temperatures will warm a bit more in response to this ridge, pushing into the mid to upper teens. A strengthening jet streak on the northern edge of the upper ridge will place the forecast area in the right entrance region of the jet while instability pools along the James and Missouri River Valleys.
Still lots of uncertainty with this potential and for now have generally kept pops on the lower side (15-40%). The upper ridge will eventually build back to the east during the week, which will keep the heat and humidity in place over the area for much of the week. There will be some scattered thunderstorm chances with the better chances in the eastern CWA which will be on the edge of the ridge.
Upper level ridge centers a little more south and east on Sunday afternoon, boosting temperatures a few more degrees for much of the area.
146 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 A cold front (more of a wind shift to the northwest) will move south and cross the Ohio River this afternoon. High pressure will then build into the region on Sunday, moderate temperatures, and most importantly lower humidity levels. The cold front will lay out along the Ohio, and there could be enough instability ahead of it to initiate shower and thunderstorm activity with daytime heating. High pressure and a somewhat drier and cooler airmass will settle into the area tonight into Sunday. Bit of a pattern shift is expected sometime mid-week when a longwave trough begins to dig down from western Canada.
Most of the area is currently in the low to mid 90s. Any shower/thunderstorm activity will move out by the morning hours tomorrow, with a nicer and somewhat cooler day expected.
223 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Showers should end this evening as a cold front push south of the area and brings a cooler and drier airmass.
1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (Today and tonight) Stuck in the summer doldrums for the weather today is yesterday's tomorrow as the center of the subtropical ridge remains over the Four Corners region. Similar temperatures are expected again today, with surface winds backing to the southeast this afternoon as a weak cyclone forms in southern Colorado. Winds will oscillate to the southwest later tonight as the aforementioned lee cyclone gradually rotates to the east while remaining dry.
Highs this afternoon will top out in the low to potentially mid 80s away from the lake. Expect scattered cumulus and highs in the lower 80s inland and 70s near the shore with an afternoon lake breeze.
(This evening through Sunday) The upper ridge spinning near the New Mexico and Colorado border is expected to slide eastward tonight into tomorrow towards the Oklahoma Panhandle. Conditions will remain dry as the upper high is to the north and northeast to easterly winds prevail aloft.
A north wind 10-13 kts with a few gusts up to the low 20 kts will slowly diminishing to light and variable winds for the evening hours.