Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
606 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 (This evening through Monday) The main feature in the short term will be a cold front arriving from the north this evening, serving as a focus for overnight convection and impacting ongoing fires with a wind shift. Highs will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler across the forecast area, due to cooler air pouring in behind the cold front.
This will partially be because of the shift in the trough to our west, creating more synoptic forcing over eastern Arizona.
The highest chances should remain near the coast and increase area-wide into the afternoon hours. Ridging remains continues to dominate the weather pattern resulting in persistent hot temperatures across the area. By mid-week, models are suggesting a more SW flow while a trough stretches across Eastern U. and its associated cold front moves into the N Gulf coast before stalling.
No additional convection is expected tonight and although temperatures were running warmer than normal this evening, forecast morning lows remain on track. There is some discrepancy as the Euro places the ridge axis higher than the GFS. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow with afternoon highs forecasted to peak in the low 100s across central Mississippi.
515 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Most recent Water Vapor and upper air analysis shows the upper closed low affecting our region centered over North dakota this afternoon, with strong upper ridge over the west coast.
1008 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Low pressure will cross the region today through early tonight drawing an occluded front through. High pressure will cross the region Monday.
Our upper ridge will flatten further as a trough swings into the Great Lakes region and the associated surface cold front begins to push southward through the Ohio Valley.
Ridging remains over the region this morning with mainly light southerly flow, and a Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon for all area counties as heat indices are once again expected to reach and exceed 108 degrees. A cold front drops into the SE U.
Highs will dip into the 70s before moderating sharply warmer late week. Post sys high pressure builds in Tue and lingers Wed before giving way to next sys amplifying through James Bay Thu. Weak/limited moisture return ahead of this sys likely yields little more than a few showers far eastern zones late day invof washing cold front. Otherwise primary theme this period is for rebounding temps especially late period as tremendous upper ridge builds in wake of Thu sys across the cntrl/ern US this weekend.
(This evening through Monday) An upper level low is currently moving south/southeast through the northern plains, and will move southeast into the eastern Great Lakes region by Tuesday afternoon. Behind this upper low, a cold front is moving south through western Kansas today. North of a Sterling City to Brownwood line, confidence is high that temperatures will be significantly cooler than the previous several days, with highs mainly in the mid 90s.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the Northern Rockies during this period.
This combination yields current heat indices in the lower 100s. An upper-level composite analysis early this morning reveals large area of deep layer mean ridging extending from the central North Atlantic westward to the southern United States. A sprawling surface anticyclone coves much of the North Atlantic with a ridge extending westward to the Florida Peninsula.
1226 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (This evening through Monday) The main feature in the short term will be a cold front arriving from the north this evening, serving as a focus for overnight convection and impacting ongoing fires with a wind shift. Highs will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler across the forecast area, due to cooler air pouring in behind the cold front.
At the same time, a 500 mb closed low is expected to shift from southern MN eastward to northern IL this evening. While the better forcing will shift east of the area throughout the day, there may be just enough forcing during the heat of the day to touch off a few more showers and storms along the cold front this afternoon. Otherwise, expect cooler/drier conditions to arrive tonight in the wake of the frontal passage. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 80s today with overnight lows dropping to around 60 tonight.
(Today through Tuesday) We have one more steamy, stormy day to get through before a shot of drier and cooler air comes our way. Later this afternoon, coverage of thunderstorms is expected to increase area wide as a surface cold front approaches. We expect highs to push to the high side of model guidance with warming southwest winds ahead of the frontal zone. Late tonight through Tuesday, a big air mass change will start as a pronounced mid level trough sets up from the Great Lakes down across the TN Valley. Much cooler and drier air will filter into the region Tuesday with a northwest breeze. (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Dry and relatively cool high pressure will be in place midweek with much welcomed nice wx.
A cold front will pass across the area this evening. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the high plains. An upper level ridge will begin to expand eastward by mid-week and become entrenched by the weekend. This ridge could be very persistent and even if the center of the ridge moves east of our area later in August, it will probably still be hot. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of a pre-frontal trough this afternoon; and given the deep layer shear, these could be severe with damaging wind, along with small to marginally severe hail. Clear skies, light winds and drier air will allow temperatures to bottom out in the lower 50s in Scott City by Tuesday morning, with upper 50s over south central KS.
Some areas across the north may be 10 to 15 degrees cooler Tuesday afternoon behind the front.
A longwave trough remains over the eastern United States which will help keep the pattern slightly more unsettled to the north but local convective coverage will be modulated by passing bursts of Saharan dust or tropical moisture.
The western extent of the Bermuda high, which for a time had joined up with the western ridge will begin to flatten as a strong upper level trough begins to amplify of the south central U. Sadly, heat index values will still be elevated on Monday as the ridge will take some time to break down allowing for lower heights and thicknesses into the region. closer to the slight break in the upper ridge. Timing will be everything with this feature and any afternoon convection that fires along or ahead of the front/parent trough.
A cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the Midsouth early this week although today will still be quite warm ahead of the front.
The low pressure system that brought us storms yesterday has shifted off to the northeast and is bringing some wrap-around clouds back west towards northeast Nebraska. Northerly winds will be noticeably windy today, keeping high temperatures down in the low-to-mid 70s. We're going to see a big pattern shift over the next couple days, as the strong ridge that has been over the PacNW slides east over the Rockies and continues over the Northern Plains.
An anonymously strong upper trough and area of low pressure will swing through the Ohio River Valley Today and Tonight. Divergent flow ahead of the trough will allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms this morning through early afternoon, mainly north of I-40. During this timeframe instability and shear values are on the lower end but enough in place that we could see a few strong storms. Synoptically, this system is quite rare for August as we normally don't see upper troughs this far south and this strong.
Overall precipitation will be winding down through the morning and becoming spotty/scattered as continued digging of the upper low/trof into the upper/mid MS Valley shunts things to the east-southeast and helps drive the cold front through the remainder of the CWA by 15-16z. The aforementioned spotty/scattered precipitation will be in the wake of the current precipitation, and attendant with the advancing cold front and lift ahead of it. Gusty northwest winds and only slow clearing of clouds will make for a much cooler day.
1129 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Shower and thunderstorms return to the forecast Monday and Tuesday with crossing low pressure. Dry weather will return by mid week under high pressure. Dry weather should continue through morning as low level ridging shifts east of the region. Ascent provided by a warm front, continued vorticity advection, and upper divergence associated with a jet streak will promote the development of widespread showers and some thunderstorms, continuing until the passage of a cold/occluding front later Monday night. Hodographs are also long and veered in the low levels. Training storms may be an issue at times as storm motion could parallel the approaching warm front. Dry weather should then return late Tuesday night as the trough exits the region.
-Upper level low continues to push ESE away from the region, with a ridge amplifying out west providing NW flow aloft. Discussion: Water vapor imagery shows the presence of an upper level low across SD and MN tracking toward the ESE. Some high level cumulus may develop in NW MN during the afternoon as the upper level system shifts cooler air down from Canada. Flow aloft turns toward the NW, with a ridge out west amplifying. Progression of dry air and warmer temperatures continues into Tuesday. -Roller coaster of temperatures, with warm days ahead of upper level waves and cooler days post frontal passages. Discussion: Flow continues out of the NW through the mid portions of the week, before the ridge breaks down out west and tracks into the central United States providing zonal flow.
An unseasonably strong/deep upper trough progressing over the upper midwest in concert with an associated strong and deep cold frontal zone progressing south through the region is supporting widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms early this morning across southern and southeast Kansas. Breezy northwest winds will advect cooler and drier air into the region today, with forecast high temperatures mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s. High pressure settling south tonight will support a rather chilly night for August standards, with forecast lows in the 50s. Much of the same is expected for Tuesday, although winds will slacken and temperatures may be 1-2 degrees warmer than today.
1223 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (This evening through Monday) An upper level low is currently moving south/southeast through the northern plains, and will move southeast into the eastern Great Lakes region by Tuesday afternoon. Behind this upper low, a cold front is moving south through western Kansas today. North of a Sterling City to Brownwood line, confidence is high that temperatures will be significantly cooler than the previous several days, with highs mainly in the mid 90s.
1209 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (This evening through Monday night) A cold front was moving into the Oklahoma Panhandle early this afternoon. More showers along with a few thunderstorms are expected to continue overnight as the Panhandles remain in a diffluent pattern aloft in the right entrance region of the jet rounding the upper trough swinging through the upper Midwest. High temperatures will be much cooler on Monday behind the front.
115 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Low pressure will cross the region today through early tonight drawing an occluded front through. High pressure will cross the region Monday. Weak low pressure will approach Monday night and track through the Gulf of Maine Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Some locales still have a shot at approaching or breaking records with observations showing low to mid 40 dewpoints moving into the area from the north which will help allow locales near the Tri-State border drop into the 40's with the rest of the area generally in the lower 50's. Tonight, another cool night is forecasted with a weak pressure gradient over the area and light winds allowing lows to drop into the lower 50's. With the relatively dry air and upper ridging, skies should remain sunny through the day with temperatures warming into the upper 80's across most of the area.
133 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Dangerous heat and humidity will persist through Tuesday ahead of a cold front.
(Today through Tuesday night) The cold front that produced all the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening has pushed well south of the Panhandles. Highs are expected to be around 75-80 degrees for much of the area, with some of the typical warm spots (southeast Texas Panhandle, Palo Duro Canyon, Canadian River Valley) reaching all the way up into the low-80s. The Midwestern upper-level trough will move eastward which will allow for the upper-level ridge over the Southwest to expand eastward, kicking off a warming trend.
A building upper ridge over the western US will keep conditions quiet across the region with cool temperatures lingering through Tuesday. Ensemble guidance continues to be in good agreement in developing an upper ridge over the western US that will bring hot and dry conditions to central and western Nebraska through the end of the workweek.
A cold front will begin to move across the state from NW to SE during the day, likely clearing the area by this evening. In the wake of the front, much cooler and drier air is expected to overspread the state.
A ridge of high pressure is expected to build throughout the week allowing for afternoon highs to climb back into the triple digit range.
A shifting high pressure center will be sliding closer to central and southern Idaho, maximizing subsidence and weakening the wind pattern. A warming trend develops today, and then a spike upward occurs from today to Tue as the upper level ridge center moves directly overhead.
1033 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Most recent Water Vapor and upper air analysis shows the upper closed low affecting our region centered over North dakota this afternoon, with strong upper ridge over the west coast. Quiet and mostly dry conditions can be expected through the week, with a warming trend expected as the upper ridge slides over the rockies and northern plains Monday/Tuesday. Highs for Monday can be expected in the 70s to low 80s, and by Tuesday some areas will reach into the low 90s.
245 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 A round of scattered showers and storms are to move through central and southeastern Illinois today, becoming dry by later afternoon after the passage of a warm front then a cold front shortly after.
1147 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 A cold front was bisecting northwest Kansas early this afternoon where northwest winds were gusting over 30 knots. Although this mid-lvl waa is progged to diminish in areal coverage we may see it continue impacting southern KS and southeast KS through the evening hours before the mid/upper trough axis sweeps across the area. Afternoon values are expected to range from the upper 80s in far southeast KS to the lower 90s in central KS. The subtropical ridge will overspread the region towards the end of the week and into the weekend bringing hot and dry weather back to the Great Plains.
155 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Shower and thunderstorms return to the forecast Monday and Tuesday with crossing low pressure. Dry weather will return by mid week under high pressure. Dry weather should continue through morning as low level ridging shifts east of the region. Ascent provided by a warm front, continued vorticity advection, and upper divergence associated with a jet streak will promote the development of widespread showers and some thunderstorms, continuing until the passage of a cold/occluding front later Monday night. Hodographs are also long and veered in the low levels. Training storms may be an issue at times as storm motion could parallel the approaching warm front. Dry weather should then return late Tuesday night as the trough exits the region.
300 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 The upper low that brought all the rain has fully moved out of the area and you can expect mostly blue skies today and lighter winds. We will stay in northwest flow aloft as a upper high pressure sits over the Southwest until this weekend. Today will be the last cooler day until we warm back into the upper 80s.
255 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure moving east across southern MN, with high pressure centered over WY. Upper level analysis shows compact low over far southwest MN, with high pressure over the Pacific NW. Temps are on the chilly side this morning, mostly mid 40s to mid 50s, with some cooler spots across the higher Black Hills. A dry work week is expected as upper high and negatively tilted ridge remain across much of the western US into the southern Plains. A more typical August wx pattern will develop across our area as warmer air builds back into the northern Plains over the next couple of days.
(Today and tonight) Cold front making steady progress over the region early this morning, ushering in much cooler temperatures and drier air. Moist, confluent flow aloft, between central/southern Texas ridge and strong upper low moving east out of the Dakotas, is expected to yield highly elevated showers going in a west to east band from west central and southwest Oklahoma through central Oklahoma through the morning ours. Cooler temperatures today, with forecast highs 10 to 15 degrees cooler than those seen the past several days. A refreshingly cooler night expected tonight with some lows in the upper 50s expected across northern Oklahoma.
Cooler airmass continues to settle in through the day with gradual decrease in clouds, resulting in high temps several degrees below normal.
241 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2023 An upper ridge will dominate our weather through Tuesday night with dry and warming conditions under mostly clear skies. The warming will be the result of mid-level winds turning westerly, and surface lee troughing east of the Rocky Mountains from Alberta to Montana. The mid-level westerly winds will advect warmer air eastward into our area. The surface lee troughing will facilitate the development of low-level southerly winds today and then westerly winds Tuesday that will compress the air and cause further warming.
1024 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Latest GOES WV imagery shows an upper level low over central ND/SD with dry air moving into east-central WY behind the east-west band on KCYS radar from Alliance through Wheatland. However, stronger winds aloft on the back side of the upper level low should help with mixing overnight keeping temperatures higher than their low potential. Cooler conditions continue Monday with afternoon highs in the 70s and minimal chances for precipitation before warming up headed into Tuesday with 500mb height rises and an upper level high over the four corners region.
With this dry air in place, lows tonight will be a welcomed breath of fresh air with values in the low to mid 50s. Give the AC a needed break! Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer with values in the mid to upper 80s. The overall synoptic pattern is that a 500 hpa ridge will plant itself over the greater region.
1250 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (The rest of tonight) Thunderstorms are expected to become widespread across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas over the next few hours as a cold front that currently extends from near the Kansas City metro area into northwest Oklahoma moves into the area. As thunderstorms develop near the advancing cold front in Kansas, another cluster of storms over western Oklahoma will spread east into the area.
218 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 - Cooler and breezy today, Temperatures will run about 5 to 10 degrees below normal today and Tuesday. WV imagery shows the compact stout H500 short wave trough churning aggressively east-southeast across southern Minnesota this morning. With ample dry air wrapping in from the northwest across the Plains, it continues to work slowly into the lower Missouri Valley, as evident by clear skies on IR finally inching into far northwestern Missouri. As the cold front has slowed along the Ozark Plateau this morning, it's butting up against the strong WAA from the gulf. 00 inch pwats will result in continued development through the morning across MO/AR into the lower Ohio Valley.
328 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 The upper low that brought all the rain has fully moved out of the area and you can expect mostly blue skies today and lighter winds. We will stay in northwest flow aloft as a upper high pressure sits over the Southwest until this weekend. Today will be the last cooler day until we warm back into the upper 80s.
402 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Shower and thunderstorms return to the forecast today and Tuesday with crossing low pressure. Dry weather will return by mid week under high pressure. Increasing moisture transport ahead of the trough, increasing vorticity advection and jet ascent, should result in showers and embedded thunderstorms overspreading the region today. The low is expected to pull an occluded front through the Upper Ohio Valley region tonight as it tracks eastward, with shower and thunderstorm chances diminishing overnight.
By late afternoon, a strong upper trough will begin to push a cold front through the CWA. Strong circulation around the upper low will cause a respond at all levels at and below 500mb. Behind the cold front, skies should become mostly clear tonight and allow temperatures to drop into the low 60s.
An upper level low pressure over northwestern SD is noted on water vapor this afternoon. This low pressure will slide to the southeast just along southwestern portion of the CWA. As this low pressure pivots precipitation will wrap around the northern and eastern portion of the low bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms south of a line from Brainerd to Cloquet to Ashland. As the upper level low pressure moves to the east, an upper level ridge will build in. This will cause temperatures increase into the low 80s by Tuesday.
1026 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 A pleasant day across the state today as the cold front brings in milder conditions. All winds will be decreasing around sunrise Monday, with light and variable winds through the day under high pressure. As the passing trough and front continue east, stronger ridging builds northward along the Rockies, with a return to deep summertime heat through the upcoming week.
342 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 High pressure will prevail through today. A cold front will drop into the area late Tuesday, then stall just off the coast before dissipating. High pressure will rebuild late week. Today: Aloft, a west to east oriented ridge will continue to stretch across the Southern Plains to the Southeast while an upper low shifts across the Upper Midwest. At the surface, the pattern will remain rather weakly forced with the main feature being subtropical high pressure. Tuesday, a strong upper trough will swing through the Great Lakes region, pushing a cold front into the Southeast.
1110 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Low pressure will cross the region today through early tonight drawing an occluded front through. High pressure will cross the region Monday. Weak low pressure will approach Monday night and track through the Gulf of Maine Tuesday into Tuesday night.
654 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (Today through Tuesday) We have one more steamy, stormy day to get through before a shot of drier and cooler air comes our way. Later this afternoon, coverage of thunderstorms is expected to increase area wide as a surface cold front approaches. We expect highs to push to the high side of model guidance with warming southwest winds ahead of the frontal zone. Late tonight through Tuesday, a big air mass change will start as a pronounced mid level trough sets up from the Great Lakes down across the TN Valley. Much cooler and drier air will filter into the region Tuesday with a northwest breeze. (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Dry and relatively cool high pressure will be in place midweek with much welcomed nice wx.