Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Moisture and weak lift within the DGZ around 10,000 feet / 700 mb is producing light snow aloft (a weak trough is at that level), though much drier air is present underneath to 5,000 feet.
525 PM PDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure over the region today and tomorrow will result in above average daytime temperatures. (This evening through Thursday) High pressure still in place over the region will result in another warm afternoon. Look for temperatures to range from the upper 60s along the immediate coast, 70s inland, and our warmer spots peaking at or above 80 degrees.
Despite warmer temperatures today, the dry airmass and wind will add a chill to the air. The wind and slightly higher dewpoint air, will result in warmer overnight lows tonight, but some areas will still experience another freeze by early Thursday morning and perhaps areas of frost.
Northwest flow persists over the Central High Plains today/tonight, with an upper ridge over the West Coast and an upper trough over the Great Lakes and New England. Northwest flow persists over the area Thursday as the ridge nudges slightly east.
A broad ridge of high pressure maintains calm weather conditions and near seasonal temperatures across the area over the next few days.
Some low lying areas, especially our eastern zones, will hover around the freezing mark by early tomorrow morning under clear skies and enhanced radiational cooling. Surface winds will respond to the upper trough axis shifting east tomorrow morning, resulting in predominantly breezy southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures climbing into the mid-upper 60s area wide.
This is helping temperatures in the Valley into northwest and west-central Minnesota reach above freezing, with mid to upper 30s in areas lacking in snowfall in the southern Valley, in addition to the forested areas of Minnesota. With the slightly warmer air mass eking into the area tomorrow, similar temperatures well into the 30s.
526 PM MDT Wed Nov 1 2023 The H500 hand analysis map is showing low pressure dominating E. NOAM transitioning to a high pressure ridge along the NOAM Pacific coastline. extends from the PacNW across the Central Rockies to the base of the trough over the Gulf States. Otherwise the warming trend should continue as the Pacific ridge works farther inland.
Boxell (Issued 250 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023) Tonight through Thursday night: Quiet weather along the edges of substantial high pressure to our south through the short term forecast period. Low temperatures tonight are expected to dip into the mid-20s, with warmer temperatures near the lakeshore.
1014 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 Tonight will be the coldest night since early Spring with widespread sub-freezing temperatures expected to end the growing season in central PA.
Expect clear skies to continue through the overnight hours, and with CAA from persistent northerly winds, expect radiational cooling to be enhanced, allowing temperatures to drop to freezing and potentially below freezing for locations in the northern counties (Portions of the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley areas). Easterly winds, courtesy of an area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico, will allow moisture to filter into the area. Skies will become partly cloudy tomorrow night, which may inhibit radiational cooling at the surface, and allow for slightly warmer nighttime lows.
Energy embedded in westerly flow will begin bringing rain showers to the lower elevations, with snow showers in the mountains during the morning hours. Precipitation chances range from moderate over the lower elevations (20-50%), to likely over the mountains (60-80%).
Between the southwesterly flow and abundant sunshine, temperatures have warmed into the low 40s this afternoon. Thankfully cooler weather has helped to mitigate much in the way of fire weather concerns but certainly a concern for any remaining harvest activities going on. As the low shifts across the upper midwest overnight cloud cover will increase across northern to central Iowa, helping to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night, in the upper 20s.
A north Pacific storm has spread warm-frontal clouds inland across WA and OR but rain will stay north of 45N through the night due to an upper ridge over our area. The ridge will maintain the air stagnation conditions in our CWA through most of the night and end before sunrise as currently forecast. The ridge will flatten Thursday as a faster-moving Pacific trough overtakes the ridge. Widespread light to moderate rain will fall Thursday afternoon and evening as the storm's cold front moves through.
Daily record low minimum temperatures for tonight: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 11-02 22(1954) 22(1954) 24(1993) 22(1954) Plenty of sunshine can be expected Thursday, and after a cold start we will see temperatures moderate into the 50s in most valley locations. Will highlight the low RH values in the FWF.
921 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure will build over the area tonight and remain in control through the weekend. High pressure settles overhead by 12Z Thu with a cold night ahead. Sfc dewpoints are now in the low 20s everywhere with teens in the mountains. Subfreezing temperatures are expected pretty much everywhere overnight. As high pressure builds in from the west, winds should also go light to calm. High pressure will build overhead tomorrow morning, before progressing offshore tomorrow afternoon.
Another round of near freezing temperatures is expected by early Thursday morning, mainly around the 33-34 degree mark. Being on the cusp of these freezing temperatures, and given the slightly warmer temperatures this morning, have opted to do an SPS to highlight the near freezing conditions.
The westerly wind actually increases in the Cody Foothills as the night wears on, so readings there are likely to remain above freezing. Otherwise, ridging nudging into the state from the west limits not only QPF but also areal extent.
These clouds may result in warmer than forecast low temperatures, but will not make any changes to them at this time. The center of that area of high pressure will quickly drift east and southeast of our area during the day Thursday. The low stratus and fog could remain problematic through at least the mid-late morning hours before lifting and clearing. Daytime temperatures are expected to be back in the low to mid 40s north and northeast to the upper 40s to low 50s in our south and southwest. The pattern favoring west CONUS ridging, and eastern CONUS troffing. Within that flow setup, several waves aloft do make their way through the ridge and across the Northern Plains. Another broad wave/trof aloft enters the picture for Mon-Tue.
722 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure will settle east of central Illinois providing fair weather conditions and a southwest breeze through the remainder of the work week.
(Tonight through Wednesday) Low-level warm advection will increase through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend, with surface ridging centered across the eastern CONUS.
Have low temps ranging from the middle to upper teens in north-central WI to the low to middle 20s elsewhere. Warmer temperatures are expected as the low-level WAA sticks around, but readings will remain about 5 to 10 degrees below normal ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
One forecast challenge tonight is will the fog and warm blanket of stratus keep us warmer than our forecasted lows? Right now our lows hit at 12z, before warming as the sun rises. Thursday the low clouds in the south look to dissipate in the early afternoon, while the rest of the state remains cloudy, and then fill back in. High temperatures will be warmer as a slight thermal ridge nudges into the state. Thursday night a low pressure system moves through South Dakota.
1008 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure builds into the area overnight and moves offshore during Thursday.
We still anticipate those counties that did not reach freezing the past 2 nights to fall between 30 and 32 degrees tonight. One more night of near-freezing conditions will occur tonight, with the exception of the central Metroplex urban core. Given that readings in some of the east central/and southern counties didn't reach freezing levels in a widespread sense this morning, will go ahead with another Freeze Warning along/south of an Athens to Lampasas line for Thursday morning.
A more zonal flow pattern will develop overnight as a broad trough develops over West Texas overnight. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the mid and upper 20s far north to around freezing southeast. A zonal flow pattern aloft will continue into THursday as a mid- level troughing continues to take shape over the Central and Southern Plains.
615 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) Benign weather conditions can be expected to continue through the short-term period as the area generally remains under the influence of a high pressure system. Although in general not anticipating temperatures to reach freezing, this cannot be ruled out completely over low-lying drainage areas. Tomorrow will be warmer with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, and overnight lows in the low 50s to mid 60s.
803 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure builds into the area tonight and moves offshore during Thursday.
With the westerly downsloping winds, this also suggests that warmer and drier conditions will ensue as a result elevated to near critical fire weather is possible mainly along and west of a Dundy to Greeley county line. Western ridge will break down this period, with a northwest flow early in the period transitioning to a zonal flow by the end of the period.
607 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure will settle east of central Illinois providing fair weather conditions and a southwest breeze through the remainder of the work week.
750 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 Strong ridging is currently depicted well on water vapor imagery/RAP analysis, and the latest radar mosaic is quiet. Temperatures across the area are generally ranging from the low 30s across the interior west with mid to upper 30s over the remainder of Upper Michigan. With slightly more cloud cover due to the aforementioned wave, the Keweenaw will trend a tad warmer in the upper 20s. A mid level closed low rotates over Hudson Bay, slowly shifting eastward through the weekend with ridging over the U.
A quiet and cold night is underway as high pressure builds across the eastern CONUS. Mostly clear skies with light wind will ensure efficient radiational cooling with temperatures dipping into the low/mid 20s for most. Dry conditions return Thursday as high pressure continues to build in across the region and zonal flow sets up aloft. High temperatures reach the mid to upper 40s Thursday afternoon and only dip into the low 30s Thursday night. The warming trend continues through the weekend as the region remains under the influence of zonal flow aloft and southerly flow in the low levels.
While a little warmer than the last few days, we remain in the low-mid 40s throughout the area today.
After highs top out well into the 60s this afternoon, clear skies and light wind tonight will allow temperatures to drop to near or slightly below freezing, especially over eastern MS.
The mean Westerlies remain north of the area with an upper trough lifting through the New England region and a broad low amplitude ridge setting up over the western CONUS. Currently, at the surface, a high pressure cell remains southeast of the area into the lower MS Valley region with return flow likely to continue into the region for a few days.
Lows in rural areas should drop into the lower 20s while the metro's "heat island" will be in the mid-20s.
High pressure over the Eastern Pacific is expected to gradually weaken as it moves east across the Western CONUS and over the Great Plains over the next two days. As the ridge slowly moves east, the Tri-State area is expected to be under northwest flow aloft. Near the surface, a trough is expected to strengthen along the lee side of the Rockies from Wyoming to NE New Mexico. With the trough, winds are expected to increase during the afternoon hours with westerly to west- northwesterly winds gusting as high as 20-25 mph. Those east of the highway are expected to have RH values in the upper teens to lower 20s. Winds are expected to remain below the 25 mph threshold in areas with the lowest RH values, so confidence was not high enough to warrant issuing any fire weather products.
Another round of near freezing temperatures is expected by early Thursday morning, mainly around the 33-34 degree mark. Being on the cusp of these freezing temperatures, and given the slightly warmer temperatures this morning, have opted to do an SPS to highlight the near freezing conditions. Southerly flow returns this day as well bringing in warmer and moister air which will end any threat of near freezing temperatures Thursday night into Friday.
After another frost morning with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s, highs will warm into the lower-mid 60s this afternoon with increasing southerly winds around 10 mph. Southerly breezes increase on Friday between 10 to 15 mph and gusty, as low pressure near the Front Range deepens.
One forecast challenge tonight is will the fog and warm blanket of stratus keep us warmer than our forecasted lows? Right now our lows hit at 12z, before warming as the sun rises. Thursday the low clouds in the south look to dissipate in the early afternoon, while the rest of the state remains cloudy, and then fill back in. High temperatures will be warmer as a slight thermal ridge nudges into the state. Thursday night a low pressure system moves through South Dakota. Temperatures will continue to be warmer, and mostly above freezing through the forecast. Friday night a clipper moves through bringing a slight chance of freezing rain, scattered across the CWA.
404 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2023 High pressure will build into the area from the west and eventually overhead for the remainder of the week. High pressure will continue to prevail across eastern NC producing cool/dry conditions through tonight. After a chilly start with early morning temps around the freezing mark in many locations, temps will warm modestly into the mid to upper 50s this afternoon. The normally cooler sheltered locations could drop to or slightly below freezing once again with strong radiational cooling expected. Along the coast, northerly breezes will keep the lower levels mixed resulting in warmer lows in the 40s.
Cool, clear, and calm conditions are expected for the next few days as high pressure dominates.
344 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2023 Dry conditions with high pressure will continue into the weekend along with a gradual warming trend. A quiet and cold night is underway as high pressure builds across the eastern CONUS. Mostly clear skies with light wind will ensure efficient radiational cooling with temperatures dipping into the low/mid 20s for most. Eastern CONUS high pressure and zonal flow will keep dry weather in the forecast through Friday. Mostly sunny skies are expected today, but increasing upper level moisture amid a crossing weak upper trough will bring increasing cloud cover on Friday. Most will be just below the freezing mark Friday morning.
1107 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure will settle east of central Illinois providing fair weather conditions and a southwest breeze through the remainder of the work week.
128 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2023 High pressure builds into the area overnight and moves offshore during Thursday.
Temperatures are not starting off nearly as cold as this time yesterday, with readings hovering in the lower to middle 30s.
Further north, across northeast Oklahoma, southerly winds have kept temperatures mainly above freezing. Gusty southwest winds will begin to increase across northeast Oklahoma this afternoon with a few passing high clouds under broad upper trough. High temperatures were raised a couple degrees for this afternoon compared to the cooler NBM guidance.
The ridge over the Great Basin will flatten just a bit but the axis doesn't really change position from now through Friday. Being just downstream of a ridge axis means a weak pressure gradient at the surface and generally light winds across the area. 700 mb temperature warm 2-3 degC overnight and through Thursday, and the general trend is for slightly warmer nights in our mountain valleys. With warmer 700 mb temps and a little less cloud cover the I-25 corridor will be in the mid 60s tomorrow afternoon. Upper level high pressure will be over Colorado Thursday night with dry and mild weather expected.
High pressure will continue to build across Arizona through the end of the week.
Will be watching subtle mid level short wave troughs but each is weak and outside of passing mid and high level clouds in advection zone, not sure there is enough forcing to saturate and actually precipitate. If this precipitation does develop, timing might be key with temperatures below freezing in some locations given the time of day.
The increasing zonal flow aloft will induce the development of a lee trough over the High Plains with a warmer low-level air mass being advected from that region into the mid-MO Valley.
There will be an increase in high to mid clouds overnight and this may put a damper on fog formation, so confidence is on the lower side. In spite of the frontal passage, 925 mb temperatures will actually moderate over this morning, so lows will remain generally in the lower to mid 20s. High pressure drifts off to the east for Thursday and Friday, bringing a returning southerly flow to the region.
335 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2023 High pressure will bring an end to any remaining lake effect snow showers this morning.
As of 2 PM temps had climbed into the 50s for the high valleys, and upper 50s to near 70F for the plains. The upper ridge over the southwestern US is expected to amplify slightly over the next 24 hrs, while an upper disturbance pushes into the Pacific NW. Plan on overnight minimum temps in the teens to mid 20s for the high valleys, and upper 20s to mid 30s for the plains. For Thursday, highs are anticipated to climb to right around or slightly above seasonal normals, with readings in the mid 50s to around 60F for the high valleys, and 60s to lower 70s for the plains.
08/DML (Tonight through Friday night) The strong high pressure system over the central plains is the main synoptic feature for the short term forecast. This high is starting to move farther east. A shift in the high pressure will bring the return of east winds and will lead to a gradual increase in temperatures.
211 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2023 High pressure builds overnight with a cold air mass settling in. Warmer trends return for the weekend.
-Near freezing temperatures possible again tonight. Temperatures tonight will lower to near-freezing again with forecast lows in the low to mid 30s and upper 20s across the far northeast GA mountains.
1200 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2023 (This evening through Friday) With high pressure overhead today and moving Ewrd thru Fri, tranquil weather will persist.
1102 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure builds tonight with a cold air mass settling. Warmer trends return for the weekend.
(Today) High pressure at the surface in place just to our east across the southern Appalachians is promoting clear and calm conditions. The warmer conditions and dry air mass will create afternoon RH values at critically low levels between 20-25%.
The warmer temperatures, increasing southerly surface wind and relative humidity values dropping below 30 percent across a corridor from central MO to the St.
WV imagery shows dry, northwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning, and this pattern will persist, although trending more zonal Friday as weak ridging moves in.
With the warmer afternoon temperatures, overnight temperatures will also be warmer with temperatures ranging from the low 30s to low 40s.
337 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2023 Dry high pressure continues over our region through the weekend and into the next work week. Plenty of temps below freezing east of the mtns at this hour, except for around the big lakes across the Lakelands and lower Piedmont, but even those locations were in the mid-30s. Fair, cool, and dry across the region through the next 24 hours as a nearly zonal flow aloft hold high pressure at the surface over the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic. Temps should recover maybe a category warmer this afternoon, but still on the order of ten degrees below normal, under lots of sunshine.
A clear and mostly calm night results in another cool morning in the 30s though the freezing temperatures will be limited to the higher elevations and our northernmost zones. Friday morning temperatures will only fall into the mid/upper 30s to the low 40s with the freezing temperatures over for now. Precipitation chances remain nil with dry air mass still in place behind the cold front earlier this week.
Thus, anticipate with warmer air aloft and a southwest component, a decently mild day in comparison to our recent regime. Slightly cooler airmass for Friday with high pressure to the north nosing into the state.
Dewpoints in the northeast CWA remain in the lower 30s and don't think we will see much more than an isolated freeze for portions of that area similar to that of last night in the Hill Country. Light and variable winds will continue overnight, but will become south/southeast by the afternoon with speeds around 7-15 mph with the higher speeds in the western counties.
Southwesterly return flow is forecast to increase today, especially north of the Ohio River, due to a tightening pressure gradient between the high and a low pressure system over Canada. Highs will likely be in the low to mid 50s. Light, but steady, southerly flow will also keep temperatures warmer tonight. Clear skies will still allow some sheltered rural areas to dip below freezing, with lows ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s.
318 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2023 High pressure builds overnight with a cold air mass settling in. Warmer trends return for the weekend.
This will encourage development of a surface leeside trof over eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico.
124 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2023 Strong ridging is currently depicted well on water vapor imagery/RAP analysis, and the latest radar mosaic is quiet. Temperatures across the area are generally ranging from the low 30s across the interior west with mid to upper 30s over the remainder of Upper Michigan. With slightly more cloud cover due to the aforementioned wave, the Keweenaw will trend a tad warmer in the upper 20s. A mid level closed low rotates over Hudson Bay, slowly shifting eastward through the weekend with ridging over the U. There is some uncertainty however as model soundings are somewhat dry in the low levels at the time the frontal boundary arrives.
144 AM PDT Thu Nov 2 2023 The weather pattern begins to transition this evening as the first in a series of relatively warm low pressure systems arrives.
For tonight, lows fall into middle 30s to near 40, with temperatures around freezing in the eastern Ozarks.
1157 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 Late evening observations indicate a large area of mid/high clouds with some virga moving into Lower Mi as warmer air moves in aloft on deep SW flow from the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. This weather scenario is set up between a large area of high pressure covering the Gulf coast/SE states and low pressure from central Canada into the central Plains which is expected to hold in place over the next couple days. With some moisture flux of Lake Michigan, still enough low level moisture to generate flat low clouds this afternoon, and temperatures once again only touching the lower 40s. Even slightly higher winds expected on Friday as we get more established in the milder air, as 925 MB temps push to 5 C, supportive of temps in the lower 50s.