Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Southwest flow aloft will persist across the area the next 24 hours, ahead of an upper level low that will move across the Baja Peninsula early Tuesday. Breezy southwest downslope flow and a strengthening low level thermal ridge (850mb temps near 20C), will allow temperatures to soar well into the 80s tomorrow afternoon. Despite the very warm temperatures, record highs for both San Angelo and Abilene are in the lower 90s, so no records are anticipated.
This convergence zone is a result of a broad weak area of high pressure situated across the Gulf of Mexico that extends across Florida and over the Bahamas. The weak area of high pressure will make for light and variable winds as we progress into this afternoon.
A moist northwest flow aloft will continue to bring light snow to the higher elevations of central Idaho and Baker County today. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today as highs reach into the 50s across the lower valleys. Areas of MVFR/IFR overnight with cold front.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) High pressure both aloft and at the surface will remain in place over the Gulf of Mexico through today before beginning to shift east on Tuesday. As an upper level trough moves into the southwestern U. , low pressure will develop across the High Plains on Tuesday.
(This evening through Tuesday) The weather for Tuesday will be similar today, only slightly windier and slightly warmer. A cut off low that has been sitting off the coast of Baja California will begin to move inland on Tuesday as it opens up and becomes absorbed within the larger long wave trough.
1244 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 Temperatures will be a little colder today with dry weather behind a cold front that passed last night.
/12 (Now through Tuesday) Temperatures have already reached or slightly exceeded expected daytime highs in the Mobile area, but in general the forecast for today appears to be on track with current temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 60s (except along and north of Highway 84 where lingering low clouds have kept temperatures in the lower 60s). Zonal flow aloft gradually shifting more toward the southwest this afternoon and Tuesday as the upper high begins to shift eastward in response to a trough digging over the western CONUS. Other then a few light showers developing across the far northern reaches of the forecast area late tonight through Tuesday as several impulses traverse the area north of the flattened upper ridge, it will remain dry across much of the area through the near term.
1056 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 Scattered rain showers, mainly isolated to the higher elevations will be possible this afternoon and evening.
255 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 Midlevel moisture and ascent at the southern periphery of low- amplitude broad troughing has mostly shifted southeast of the area.
Unfortunely the spotty rain showers will do nothing to temper the warmer and more humid conditions expected tomorrow afternoon.
501 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 Weak secondary cold front will slide south through the forecast area late tonight. However, there remains differences in location and timing of the warm front which could affect when and where precipitation will develop.
457 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 Scattered rain showers, mainly confined to the higher elevations, will be possible this afternoon and evening.
301 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 Weak secondary cold front will slide south through the forecast area late tonight. However, there remains differences in location and timing of the warm front which could affect when and where precipitation will develop.
537 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) High pressure both aloft and at the surface will remain in place over the Gulf of Mexico through today before beginning to shift east on Tuesday. As an upper level trough moves into the southwestern U. , low pressure will develop across the High Plains on Tuesday.
Otherwise, a much warmer night is in store for us as low temperatures merely drop to the low 60s.
On Tuesday, an approaching shrtwv trough will induce southwesterly flow aloft and result in the expansion of the low lvl thermal ridge. By Tuesday evening, large scale lift ahead of the approaching shrtwv trough will arrive across far West TX and SE New Mexico. The best chance for moderate rainfall will be across the eastern Permian Basin where low lvl moisture is maximized w/dewpoints increasing into the lower 50s.
629 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 Aviation --Significant freezing rain, sleet, and snow possible midweek-- Confidence continues to grow for a high impact event featuring a variety of potentially heavy winter precip types.
Building moisture across the region should keep temperatures a tad warmer tonight with lows in the mid to lower 60s. Tuesday won't see any drastic changes in the overall weather pattern as a 590 dam midlevel ridge continues to loom over the Gulf of Mexico while an upper level trough fills across eastern Canada.
The KTBW 00z sounding is showing broad subsidence in the lower levels and a dry airmass off the surface, thanks to stacked riding overhead. No headlines are expected for the next several days with high pressure remaining over the region.
Temperatures will reach into the lower to mid 70s south of the front, with 60s north.
Steady cloud cover should limit cooling somewhat tonight, though a few locations across the northern part of the forecast area could clear enough to drop to near freezing. A band of warm advection showers will likely develop overtop the boundary later tonight, but will likely remain focused east of our area where isentropic ascent will be maximized near the low level jet axis across southwest Arkansas.
A weak cold front will push into the region tonight and stall over the area Tuesday.
406 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 (Issued 406 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023) Tonight through Tuesday night: Low pressure will pass by to the north this evening, dragging a cold front through the forecast area.
540 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) The weather for Tuesday will be similar today, only slightly windier and slightly warmer. A cut off low that has been sitting off the coast of Baja California will begin to move inland on Tuesday as it opens up and becomes absorbed within the larger long wave trough.
Midlevel moisture and ascent at the southern periphery of low- amplitude broad troughing has mostly shifted southeast of the area.
Winter Storm Warnings and High Wind Warnings are in effect and blizzard like conditions will be possible over the high country. An area of Pacific low pressure continues to spin off the Baja coast, and will gradually progress east across Sonora, Mexico through Tuesday evening.
136 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2023 The upper trough responsible for most of our snow this week is pushing into the Pac NW. At the surface, low pressure sits over central MT, with high pressure over the eastern Dakotas, and a frontal boundary draped in between. Precip will begin as snow this morning, but as the warm front pushes northeastward, snow will mix with and/or change to rain, especially across southern parts of the area. Expecting highs to range from the 20s across NW SD (and therefore expecting all snow there) to the low 50s across SW SD. On Wednesday, the low pressure system will dig into the Rockies, sending strong PVA over the northern plains.
Temperatures should be fairly similar to what we saw yesterday and as we move into the late afternoon/evening hours, a warm front will lift through the area. For as sharp and intense as models were depicting this system late last week, by the time we see the trough get here Wednesday evening, it's all but become a shadow of its former self.
Dry weather is on tap with a more humid air mass today as dew points rise into the low and mid-60s.
The small short wave at the subtle central axis of the broad, low- amplitude upper trough covering much of the northern United States. Associated weak cold frontal boundary will cross the region from west to east late tonight. Midlevel moisture and ascent at the southern periphery of low- amplitude broad troughing has mostly shifted southeast of the area.
Mean-layer ridging persists across the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure in the western North Atlantic extends westward over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Breezes will freshen slightly and veer towards the southeast by Tuesday night as the ridge consolidates across Florida and the Bahamas.
1103 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) High pressure both aloft and at the surface will remain in place over the Gulf of Mexico through today before beginning to shift east on Tuesday. As an upper level trough moves into the southwestern U. , low pressure will develop across the High Plains on Tuesday.
Temperatures will reach into the lower to mid 70s south of the front, with 60s north. If the front passes through sooner, then the higher southwest winds and low humidity would be shunted southward.
1123 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 Light rain showers will move through portions of the Upper Ohio Valley later this evening and again Tuesday morning with a series of troughs.
Even without much sunshine, high temperatures will still reach the lower 80s for NE FL and most of SE GA with warm air advection off the Gulf.
1031 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) The weather for Tuesday will be similar today, only slightly windier and slightly warmer. A cut off low that has been sitting off the coast of Baja California will begin to move inland on Tuesday as it opens up and becomes absorbed within the larger long wave trough.
104 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 High pressure will be ridging across the area at the surface and aloft through the period. The movement of the ridge will adjust winds from the SW to the E/SE by Wednesday with afternoon sea breezes.
The higher end of those amounts will likely occur along the Plateau. On Tuesday, a warm front will be lifting northward but we should remain on the dry side. The breezy conditions will continue into Wednesday night as a cold front will be on approach.
129 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 Light rain showers will move through portions of the Upper Ohio Valley later this evening and again Tuesday morning with a series of troughs.
Otherwise, high pressure over the eastern Gulf will allow for SW/S winds to continue ushering warming temps into the area.
Winter Storm Warnings and High Wind Warnings are in effect and blizzard like conditions will be possible over the high country. Temperatures are slowly dropping this evening and will likely be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday's low temperatures due to moisture starting to creep into our CWA. As a result, the overnight low temperatures were updated from the previous forecast package to account for this additional moisture keeping areas ever so slightly warmer. An area of Pacific low pressure continues to spin off the Baja coast, and will gradually progress east across Sonora, Mexico through Tuesday evening. The forecast remains well on track with the initial arctic cold front passage Tuesday night through Wednesday. High Wind Warnings continue for the lower elevation zones while Winter Storm Warnings encompass the high wind threat in the higher elevations.
319 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 A band of showers will move across the area this morning with a crossing cold front.
1010 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 Update Lowered temperatures overnight a couple degrees based on current obs and also lowered POPs based on LAPs and model soundings showing fairly shallow moisture with precip having to overcome strong dry wedge in the lowest 5 to 8 thousand feet. --Significant freezing rain, sleet, and snow possible midweek-- Confidence continues to grow for a high impact event featuring a variety of potentially heavy winter precip types.
109 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 Quiet weather continues across the area as high pressure continues to build directly overhead. With the high overhead, overnight winds will drop considerably, and lead to a risk of fog mainly over interior and western areas. Overnight the high will move overhead with mostly clear skies and light winds expected. The high will move offshore by Tuesday and will gradually become absorbed into the larger western Atlantic high (which will eventually become our dominant surface feature in the mid-week period). Overall synoptic flow will remain light and sea-breeze driven, while the mid-lvl ridging will keep us dry.
A cold front is draped across the northern AR border, with westerly flow across much of the forecast area. Lighter winds will become more northerly overnight, as a cold front slowly shifts southward across the state, pausing over southern AR Tuesday. Low temperatures tonight will be much cooler across the north (with lows in the lower to mid 40s) and warmer over central and southern AR (50s to lower 60s). The front will then lift back to the north as a warm front Tuesday evening. These enhanced winds will transport plenty of warmer air and moisture across the area, with max temps 70-80 F and forecast PWATs 1-1.
1049 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 Weak secondary cold front will slide south through the forecast area late tonight. However, there remains differences in location and timing of the warm front which could affect when and where precipitation will develop. As the warm front lifts north through the forecast area late Tuesday night into Wednesday, a strong southwesterly LLJ will develop ushering in decent WAA as well as low level moisture. Also, isolated/scattered thunderstorms will develop due to elevated instability, MU CAPEs between 250 and 500 J/kg, along and north of the warm front. The heaviest rain will fall along and north of I-70 with an inch to an inch and a half of rainfall possible, with lesser amounts south of the warm front.
315 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 (Today through Wednesday) A broad area of high pressure continues to expand eastward into the region from the Gulf of Mexico, while strong upper-level ridging gradually builds in aloft. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will rise to the mid 80s along the East Coast, but could reach the lower 90s in areas of interior and southwest Florida.
These temperatures should peak on Wednesday, with afternoon highs tailored towards some compressional heating ahead of the cold front. Over the past few days, the low that was supposed to be the catalyst for this severe weather has tracked farther north. Here, a marginal risk is in place, since they aren't entirely removed from the best forcing with the low. /44/ (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) A frontal boundary lagging behind an exiting storm system will move across the ArkLaTex on Wednesday night with high pressure building in its wake.
711 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 High pressure will be ridging across the area at the surface and aloft through the period. The movement of the ridge will adjust winds from the SW to the E/SE by Wednesday with afternoon sea breezes.
A stalled frontal boundary will remain situated just north of the forecast through the period, with high pressure centered well to our southeast remaining overall in control of our weather. This is also responsible for the scattered showers, and perhaps an isolated storm or two later this morning, observed across locations mainly along the Highway 82 corridor.
At the sfc, high pressure will remain off the southeast coast resulting in continued southerly flow and increasing moisture across the area with precipitable water values climbing to around 1 inch Wednesday afternoon. The pressure gradient will tighten across the area on Wednesday as an area of low pressure develops and moves into the midwestern states. Highs near the coast will be in the low 70s.
Mid-level high pressure over the Bahamas/Straits of Florida will dominate the local weather, with dry and warm conditions prevailing with partly to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures today will be around 10 degrees above normal, with highs in the low 80s north of I- 4, and mid 80s to the south. High pressure will continue to dominate the local weather this week, which will lead to no mentionable rain chances and warming temperatures.
The rest of the day will feature warm and dry conditions as high pressure remains firmly in control of the weather pattern across South Florida. (Today through Wednesday) A broad area of high pressure continues to expand eastward into the region from the Gulf of Mexico, while strong upper-level ridging gradually builds in aloft. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will rise to the mid 80s along the East Coast, but could reach the lower 90s in areas of interior and southwest Florida.
532 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 A band of showers will move across the area this morning with a crossing cold front.
(Rest of Today) A weakening frontal boundary will temporarily stall over the region today as strong ridging continues to build over the western Atlantic.
615 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 A cold front will move across the region today and prevent temperatures from rising much above 40 today. A strong system will bring mostly rain Wednesday into Wednesday night; however, there is a good chance for freezing rain near the Michigan border bringing ice accumulations.
A cold front will move through the region on Wednesday bringing a shot for an isolated strong storm.
630 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 (Today through Wednesday) A broad area of high pressure continues to expand eastward into the region from the Gulf of Mexico, while strong upper-level ridging gradually builds in aloft. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will rise to the mid 80s along the East Coast, but could reach the lower 90s in areas of interior and southwest Florida.
Will see the second part of the storm begin on Wednesday as a low pressure system tracks from the southern Rockies to southern Kansas. High temperatures today will range from the lower teens northeast to the upper 40s across south central South Dakota.
The ongoing Winter Storm Warnings, Watches, and Advisories remain in effect to account for this flash freeze risk and the high impact it will have on the general public.
These systems will bring periods of strong winds, along with valley rain and mountain snow and cooler temperatures. Still on track for multiple storm systems to impact the region this week, and the highlight continues to be the strong winds expected for Wednesday. Temperatures dropping back below climo with a modestly cooler airmass and plenty of cloud cover. Still looking at plenty of shear and jet dynamics along with cooler mid levels and good available moisture, which should make bands of showers likely with isolated embedded thunderstorms.
Temperatures will warm up quickly this afternoon with most of us in the low to mid 80's. High pressure will be ridging across the area at the surface and aloft through the period. The movement of the ridge will adjust winds from the SW to the E/SE by Wednesday with afternoon sea breezes.
The clear skies have caused some radiational cooling throughout the Keys, with temperatures at the office falling to the lower 70s and Big Pine dropping to the mid 60s. Deep ridging surrounding the Keys and most of Florida will maintain its hold on our local weather through the seven day period.
419 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 A cold front will move across the region today and prevent temperatures from rising much above 40 today. A strong system will bring mostly rain Wednesday into Wednesday night; however, there is a good chance for freezing rain near the Michigan border bringing ice accumulations.
656 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 A band of showers will move across the area this morning with a crossing cold front.
420 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2023 The upper trough responsible for most of our snow this week is pushing into the Pac NW. At the surface, low pressure sits over central MT, with high pressure over the eastern Dakotas, and a frontal boundary draped in between. Precip will begin as snow this morning, but as the warm front pushes northeastward, snow will mix with and/or change to rain, especially across southern parts of the area. Expecting highs to range from the 20s across NW SD (and therefore expecting all snow there) to the low 50s across SW SD. On Wednesday, the low pressure system will dig into the Rockies, sending strong PVA over the northern plains.
This combined with southwest to westerly low level flow will result in an ideal deep mixing setup, though there's some question as to how strong the low level flow will be.
Upper trough axis will swing across the area late tonight, with an associated Pacific cold front moving through as well. Temperatures will be mild tonight, and cooler tomorrow but still above normal, with highs in the 70s.
Outside of the precip we are still expecting high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s this afternoon and lows in the 60s --more than 20 degrees warmer than normal. Tomorrow weak ridging aloft develops with drier conditions. Tomorrow evening as the weak upper level ridging mentioned above slides eastward as a deepening upper trough will move through the Desert Southwest. As the upper trough moves towards the Ohio River Valley it will weaken and dissolve in the main flow sending a weak frontal boundary toward the area.
A strong cold front continues to press southward this morning. Showers associated with a deep upper trough will continue to develop through this afternoon. Unstable conditions will result in brief heavy showers or bands of showers which will be capable of producing a quick inch or two of snowfall in the higher elevations, mainly in central Idaho where a Winter Storm Warning is in effect. Little or no accumulations are expected in the lower valleys as temperatures will remain well above freezing.
1252 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 Periods of rain and windy conditions are expected through the week with passing areas of low pressure, with the bulk of the rain falling Wednesday.
1151 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 (Rest of Today) A weakening frontal boundary will temporarily stall over the region today as strong ridging continues to build over the western Atlantic.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) A deep layer ridge of high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will slowly shift into the western Atlantic through tonight and Wednesday. As this ridge shifts into the western Atlantic, winds will become southeasterly as Wednesday progresses. The warm temperatures will continue as highs rise into the lower to mid 80s across the east coast metro areas, and up to around 90 over interior portions of Southwest Florida.
247 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 Tonight and Wednesday: Much warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the period with greater chances for rain across the CWA by Wednesday afternoon. Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning just south of Arizona. This closed low will open up tonight as it tracks northeast across the Texas Big Bend and continue northeast Wednesday to the southern Great Lakes region by evening. The warm southerly wind combined with cloud cover tonight will help hold temperatures in the low to mid 60s. In addition, temperatures will top out in the lower 80s at most locations Wednesday resulting in a couple record highs for the date.
1026 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2023 The upper trough responsible for most of our snow this week is pushing into the Pac NW. At the surface, low pressure sits over central MT, with high pressure over the eastern Dakotas, and a frontal boundary draped in between. Precip will begin as snow this morning, but as the warm front pushes northeastward, snow will mix with and/or change to rain, especially across southern parts of the area. Expecting highs to range from the 20s across NW SD (and therefore expecting all snow there) to the low 50s across SW SD. On Wednesday, the low pressure system will dig into the Rockies, sending strong PVA over the northern plains.