Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
There is currently a trough axis tracking over NE UT and NW CO, and it will continue to move northeastward this evening. The jet associated with this trough is directly overhead, which is contributing to strong winds. The trough is pushing a cold front into the area so showers and storms have started to develop along that front. Highs tomorrow will be upwards of 30 degrees cooler up north compared to today, and 15 degrees cooler down south.
Water vapor imagery shows the location of an area of low pressure off the coast of Juneau, AK with a trough extending southward toward the Rockies.
Most locations are slated to drop into upper 40s/low 50s (a few degrees warmer near the coast). However, given the mostly clear conditions, especially across AL/GA, and the dry airmass we can expect another chilly evening with lows generally around 50 with the cooler spots in the upper 40s. While this will bring back some low-level moisture, the warmer temperatures (in the mid 80s) and dry mid-level air mixing down in the afternoon will still keep conditions fairly dry.
649 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) High pressure is set up over the Southeast US and that is bringing us quiet and dry conditions. High pressure will continue to influence our weather on Wednesday. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today pushing into the 80s and we will see low relative humidty once again in the afternoon.
Cooler and somewhat unsettled weather is then expected into the latter part of the week.
(Rest of tonight) High pressure will continue to slowly shift northeast across the northeastern Gulf and into the southern Appalachians overnight, keeping dry and calm conditions in place.
High pressure then remains over the Southeast into early this weekend out ahead of the next potential frontal system. Continued dry and becoming warmer on Wed as high pressure builds back over the area and a weak southerly return flow sets up late. Highs inland should reach the low 80s with 70s coast. Quiet weather sticks around for the majority of the period as high pressure continues to ridge into the mid- Atlantic.
So have removed the low POPs that we had in western sections of the forecast area. Wednesday, the surface cyclone will move eastward through Kansas, continuing the strong southerly and southwesterly winds throughout Oklahoma and northern Texas.
A nearly zonal flow aloft (with perhaps some diffuse ridging) will prevail on Wed.
Precipitation continues to wrap around a low pressure system moving through southwest Montana, bringing snowfall along the Continental Divide. A deep trough over the region which is splitting off a cut off low is causing shower activity over the region this evening. In particular, wrap around precipitation around the low is spreading along the Continental Divide into southwest Montana, bringing light snow, lowered visibility and low ceilings obscuring the terrain. The pattern over the northern Rockies will remain one of a broad trough with some smaller scale weather systems moving through. Today, an upper level low will break off from the main trough over the region and move east. As it does, it will leave western Montana in a col, which is another way saying we'll be in the doldrums between to low pressure systems.
Very dry weather developed in the wake of yesterday's cold front.
638 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) A benign weather pattern featuring high pressure and subsidence will be in play across the region through Wednesday. The large diurnal swing in temperatures will be evident on Wednesday too as temperatures climb from the 40s and lower 50s in the morning, to the low and mid 80s during the afternoon.
652 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2023 Cold and freezing weather tonight will give way to warming conditions for the remainder of the week. The next chance of rain will occur this weekend with the approach of the next low pressure system. Morgantown even reached into the lower 60s today. High pressure and drier air will continue to build in tonight such that temps will be quick to fall under a near-calm and clear sky. Most everywhere will fall into the mid/lower 30s, with the typically cooler areas dropping further into the upper 20s. As a result, frost/freeze warnings have been hoisted where the growing season has started (everywhere but the higher elevations and areas near the ANF).
539 PM MDT Tue Apr 18 2023 There is currently a trough axis tracking over NE UT and NW CO, and it will continue to move northeastward this evening. The jet associated with this trough is directly overhead, which is contributing to strong winds. The trough is pushing a cold front into the area so showers and storms have started to develop along that front. Highs tomorrow will be upwards of 30 degrees cooler up north compared to today, and 15 degrees cooler down south.
Potent negatively-tilted upper level trough from the Pacific Northwest to the central Rockies was lifting northeast. The high-based nature of the convection is primarily producing localized wind gusts in excess of 50 kt as well as occasional lightning. The accompanying Pacific cold front will march east across southeast WY and the NE Panhandle tonight. Rain and snow showers will taper off over the high plains around midnight but persist over most of Carbon and Albany counties into Wednesday morning.
833 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2023 High pressure continues to build north of the area should keep dry conditions in place over the next few days. Overnight lows and afternoon highs on Tuesday are expected to be a degree or two warmer than compared today. Area of high pressure north of the area will promote a mostly east-northeast winds through the remainder of the week with wind speeds less than 15 kts and seas 2 ft or less.
1027 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2023 High pressure will be the dominant feature through the week.
948 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2023 Update Minimal changes to the low temperature forecast, as freezing temperatures are generally expected, and the typically colder microclimates for radiational cooling and cold-air drainage should fall into the 20s. Good radiational cooling conditions overnight under weak surface ridging along with dry and cold airmass with sfc dew points in the mid/upper 20s will result in several hours of temperatures below freezing. - Rain, Thunder Wed through Thu Night - Return flow moisture and warm advection develops Wednesday and model soundings show potential for elevated thunderstorms by the afternoon north of a sfc warm front.
A warm front bisecting the area this afternoon will move north of the area over the next 24 hours as low pressure takes shape across the Plains.
652 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2023 High pressure will prevail over the region through mid week providing plenty of sun and warm temperatures. A cold front will move through the area this weekend bringing showers and thunderstorms.
(Wednesday through Tuesday) Upper flow to become more S-SW tomorrow with surface features in the form of a dry line and cold front sharpening to the west.
TFJ The forecast remains on track depicting an upper trough over the western U. As it develops into a closed low by Wednesday morning it will very gradually track north and eastward. This is indicated by the NBM90 as well as the high resolution ensemble max gust products from the SPC.
The wl change by Thu as an upper lvl trof moves into the Plains States.
851 PM PDT Tue Apr 18 2023 A trough moving across the State will continue gusty west winds over the mountains and deserts, and below average temperatures through Wednesday. The trough will drift east on Thursday, allowing winds to weaken and milder air to overspread the region.
135 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 High pressure will prevail over the region through mid week providing plenty of sun and warm temperatures. A cold front will move through the area this weekend bringing showers and thunderstorms.
Any convection will continue to build northeast overnight, with the track of the short wave trough, traversing through far northwestern Missouri around 1 to 4 AM. Cooler conditions will follow, with northwest flow spreading into the region with the exit of the larger H500 trough across the Great Lakes through the weekend.
Deterministic runs predict the upper level disturbance exiting the northern Rockies to enter the northern/central Plains today while transitioning into a closed low, then remain quasi-stationary over the northern Plains tonight/Thursday.
Upstream clouds associated with warmer air are already approaching the western Great Lakes. Gradually lowering clouds today as a surface warm front pushes into the southern Great Lakes and isentropic upglide commences. The precipitation may struggle to push into eastern upper with a drier ambient airmass and the best forcing remaining south of the bridge. A mix of light rain/snow will be possible over parts of eastern upper this evening as the precipitation begins before warmer air aloft pushes into the area and turns everything to rain overnight. Low pressure tracks by well to our west while weakening. Meanwhile a surface warm front moves into northern lower but likely stalls out near the Straits. A surface cold front then moves through early Thursday night.
124 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 Dry conditions will continue across the region tonight as high pressure remains in control of the weather pattern across South Florida. (Rest of today through Wednesday) A generally dry short term period as we head into midweek as high pressure attempts to build in and then hold over the region. Drier air will help limit rain chances while provide some relief from the warmer temperatures.
This dryline will quickly mix eastward after sunrise again as a short wave trough rounds the base of a broader trough over the western CONUS. An initial surface cyclone currently located over southern Nebraska will pull into Iowa today as the upper level trough induces another surface cyclone in lee of the Rockies.
Discussion: Currently, dry airmass and surface ridging producing mostly sunny sky except across parts of southwest Virginia and northern Tennessee. Dry west to northwest flow aloft will gradual building of an upper ridge combined with continued surface ridging will produce dry conditions through Wednesday.
1050 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2023 (Rest of tonight) High pressure will continue to slowly shift northeast across the northeastern Gulf and into the southern Appalachians overnight, keeping dry and calm conditions in place.
1036 PM MDT Tue Apr 18 2023 Current water vapor and upper air models show the upper ridge centered over the Dakotas this afternoon, with a closed Upper Low over the Great Lakes region and another low over the north PAC. Cold front slides through the region this afternoon and evening and overall pattern becomes more active as southwest flow aloft sets up.
At the surface, high pressure was centered over southern Georgia. Low pressure was centered over southern Nebraska, with a dry line into west Texas.
134 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 High pressure will be the dominant feature through the week.
The upper level low will shift east into the Great Plains while a ridge of high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific Ocean. As this happens, the low level jet that has remained in place over the forecast area will diminish and the surface pressure gradient will relax. The cold front passage this morning and northerly cold air advection behind it bring today's high temperatures to around 10 degrees below normal for mid-April. Tomorrow's highs will rebound slightly as the ridge moves east, putting highs around 5 degrees below normal.
403 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 High pressure will be the dominant feature through the week.
The caveat to this may be on Thursday, when a weak upper-level trough in the Gulf of Mexico will make its closest approach to the Florida Keys.
1201 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 Aviation Minimal changes to the low temperature forecast, as freezing temperatures are generally expected, and the typically colder microclimates for radiational cooling and cold-air drainage should fall into the 20s. Good radiational cooling conditions overnight under weak surface ridging along with dry and cold airmass with sfc dew points in the mid/upper 20s will result in several hours of temperatures below freezing. - Rain, Thunder Wed through Thu Night - Return flow moisture and warm advection develops Wednesday and model soundings show potential for elevated thunderstorms by the afternoon north of a sfc warm front.
(Today and tonight) Surface ridging and a dry airmass across the region will allow for mostly clear skies for the next 24 hours.
Discussion: Upper heights will continue to build across Great Lakes and Ohio valley today in response to a strong trough/upper low over the northern Rockies.
A short wave trough in the northeast Gulf of Mexico moves eastward and becomes a closed upper low over Florida by Wednesday evening. On the surface, high pressure builds in over the southeast U. The high pressure center moves off the Carolina coastline bringing a shift in the winds to the east, which will also bring a warm up with above average temps in the mid 80's to low 90's expected through the end of the week.
High pressure then remains over the Southeast into early this weekend out ahead of the next potential frontal system.
Overall, warmer temperatures are expected today but west of the dryline, hot temperatures are expected with highs in the 90s possible. The low RH and warm/hot temperatures combined with gusty southwest winds will lead to near critical to critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. As this occurs, a cold front will then move into NW parts of the fa late evening and continue to move southeast across the region overnight into Thursday. Models show MUCAPE values over 2000 possible overnight, steep lapse rates, and wind shear leading to the potential for strong to severe storms along and behind the cold front.
236 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 Low pressure sfc and aloft continue to deepen across eastern Montana currently. This has lightened up the tap of moisture aloft, but the proximity of the low will continue to produce light rain and snow showers the next several days. The developing low has also turned winds from the west this afternoon, and as the low deepens, winds will be increasing considerably today for most of the state. Sustained winds above 25 mph and gusts above 40 will be commonplace for a large portion of the state, especially along the I-25 corridor, where the winds will be directly perpendicular to the highway. On Thursday, the low will move east into the Northern Plains, turning winds more from the northwest.
Continued much cooler than normal conditions and a moist unstable atmosphere will trigger afternoon graupel or snow showers.
1226 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 (The rest of tonight) South winds continue to gust 20-30 mph in many areas this evening, with a few gusts over 40 persisting in the high terrain of southeast OK.
255 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 High pressure across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast States will persist through the end of the work week.
Most locations are slated to drop into upper 40s/low 50s (a few degrees warmer near the coast). However, given the mostly clear conditions, especially across AL/GA, and the dry airmass we can expect another chilly evening with lows generally around 50 with the cooler spots in the upper 40s. While this will bring back some low-level moisture, the warmer temperatures (in the mid 80s) and dry mid-level air mixing down in the afternoon will still keep conditions fairly dry. (Wednesday night through Thursday night) High pressure and a dry airmass remains in control through midweek with no significant systems expected.
At the surface, a fairly humid airmass has overspread west-central Texas, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and low clouds. The low clouds should break up later this morning into early afternoon.
The main talking point through this evening will be the marginal fire weather conditions as afternoon humidities fall into the low 20's with light southerly breezes.
612 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 (Today and tonight) Surface ridging and a dry airmass across the region will allow for mostly clear skies for the next 24 hours.
443 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 Dry weather is expected to continue through Thursday morning with temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s for today and Thursday.
Southerly winds will be breezy at times along the western gradient of this ridge. It will be slightly warmer than yesterday with highs above normal in most areas. Clear weather will continue into tonight, with a bit of a chill still lingering especially in eastern areas where the ridge is still close enough to keep surface winds lighter. Early morning patchy fog may begin to return to southern zones tomorrow morning as the low levels slowly moisten back up in southerly flow.
The developing upper low sits over western MT, bringing in an area of NVA into western SD and northeastern WY. Winds should die down by this evening as the upper low shifts to the north. As the upper low moves off to the east during the day on Thursday, winds will shift to the northwest and an 850 mb jet max develops over the region.
Showers and thunderstorms then overspread the region Thursday with a risk for severe weather along the cold front. If such a conditional threat materializes, it would surely muck up the environment ahead of the cold front later in the day -- but in some places (north of the aforementioned line) and not others (along/south I-72). Regardless of the potential convective debris tomorrow morning, the near surface environment really turns over as a narrow ribbon of 60 degF dewpoints advects northward into the region ahead of the cold front. This, along with decreasing mid- level heights and some breaks in the clouds, should help erode CINH and allow for convection to initiate along and ahead of the cold front.
Southerly flow developing today and full sunshine will push highs into the lower 80s in valleys (possibly 85 in southern Cullman County), with upper 70s atop the Cumberland Plateau/Sand-Lookout Mtns.
528 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 Low pressure sfc and aloft continue to deepen across eastern Montana currently. This has lightened up the tap of moisture aloft, but the proximity of the low will continue to produce light rain and snow showers the next several days. The developing low has also turned winds from the west this afternoon, and as the low deepens, winds will be increasing considerably today for most of the state. Sustained winds above 25 mph and gusts above 40 will be commonplace for a large portion of the state, especially along the I-25 corridor, where the winds will be directly perpendicular to the highway. On Thursday, the low will move east into the Northern Plains, turning winds more from the northwest.
As a result, this should be enough to spark scattered showers and some thunderstorms in South Florida especially along with the east coast where the highest instability would be. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s across the region for Wednesday with Thursday seeing upper 80s for the west coast and low to mid 80s for the east coast and interior.
Upper disturbance over the eastern GOMEX will drift across the FL peninsula today with the GFS developing this feature into an upper closed low. Winds will veer easterly today with the shift of the position of the high gusting up to 20 mph at times especially along the coast. Temperatures this afternoon will reach the low to mid 80s.
635 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 (Today) A 500-mb ridge axis will shift eastward across the Mid/Upper-MS Valley early this morning, with light northwest flow aloft across our region expected to back to the west by 12Z as the base of the ridge translates eastward. Aside from the passage of a few/thin cirrus clouds traveling anticyclonically around the ridge, clear skies and light-calm flow will support strong radiational cooling through sunrise, with the development of patchy fog possible in the valleys of northeast AL. Over the course of the day, mid-level winds will back further to WSW in response to gradual amplification of a longwave trough across the western CONUS, but the magnitude of the increase in flow will be inhibited by a weak mid-level wave spreading east-southeastward through the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Winds are generally light and temperatures are mostly running a little cooler compared to 24 hours ago. Dry weather returns today as NorCal will be on the backside of the trough as it shifts east though the Rockies.
The remainder of the short term forecast period will be cooler and unsettled w/ H7 temperatures remaining near -8 to -12 deg C likely supporting highs only in the 30s and 40s. Upper level closed low is progged to meander across the northern CONUS, with upper level ridging pushing eastward from the western seaboard to the Intermountain West.
941 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 A warm front lifts through the upper Ohio Valley region, providing a notable warming trend through Thursday.
Low ceilings and visibility along the Divide will continue through Thursday due to moisture wrapping into the region around a low pressure system in eastern Montana. Continued much cooler than normal conditions and a moist unstable atmosphere will trigger afternoon graupel or snow showers.
Breezy to windy and cooler today as a weather system passes by to our north.
706 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 High pressure will be the dominant feature through the week.
A dry trough will move across Arizona today delivering strong gusty southwest winds to the northland. Winds calm down tonight as the trough moves eastward, winds aloft weaken and nocturnal surface inversions form.
Showers and thunderstorms then overspread the region Thursday with a risk for severe weather along the cold front. The near surface environment turns over tomorrow as a narrow ribbon of 60 degF dewpoints advects northward into the region ahead of the cold front. This, along with decreasing mid-level heights and some breaks in the clouds, should help erode CINH and allow for convection to initiate along and ahead of the cold front.
232 AM PDT Wed Apr 19 2023 Cool and breezy weather will continue today as a trough moves through the West.
A gorgeous morning is taking place in the Florida Keys with mostly sunny skies, temperatures is the upper 70s, and dew points in the lower 60s. In addition, higher heights were sampled in the low and mid levels.
Lingering cold air will promote frost and freezing temperatures tonight.
Even with the decent onshore flow persist- ng and partly sunny skies, highs will warm into the lower 80s today. Lows tonight should also be a few degrees warmer (upper 60s to lower 70s) with mostly cloudy skies and slightly elevated winds lingering. The main forecast issues for this part of the short term forecast is going to be on Thur as the large scale upper pattern features a deep elongated (slightly negatively tilted?) trough developing across the central CONUS. progged cyclogenesis over the lee of the Rockies will develop a low and an associated cold front over the Central Plains. Additionally, a warm front is progged to lift north- ward from the TX coast during the day.
(Today) A 500-mb ridge axis will shift eastward across the Mid/Upper-MS Valley early this morning, with light northwest flow aloft across our region expected to back to the west by 12Z as the base of the ridge translates eastward. Aside from the passage of a few/thin cirrus clouds traveling anticyclonically around the ridge, clear skies and light-calm flow will support strong radiational cooling through sunrise, with the development of patchy fog possible in the valleys of northeast AL. Over the course of the day, mid-level winds will back further to WSW in response to gradual amplification of a longwave trough across the western CONUS, but the magnitude of the increase in flow will be inhibited by a weak mid-level wave spreading east-southeastward through the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
630 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 Dry weather is expected to continue through Thursday morning with temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s for today and Thursday.