Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
632 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023 (Today) A very mild early morning across the Tennessee Valley for April 5th as 3 AM temperatures are in the low to mid 70s across the area thanks to southerly flow and some clouds that have rolled in. A cold front will attempt to advance eastward into the region today, but it will have a difficult time doing so thanks to a very strong area of high pressure just east of the area. Given dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, it's going to feel notably muggy outside today, so bring a bottle of water with you if you head outdoors.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper level low back off to the northwest into the Dakotas. On the high end, even the ensemble max only would have a few isolated locations in southeast Minnesota and north central Wisconsin near 50 mph. As the low pulls further away from the region, winds will begin to weaken. Some blustery conditions can be anticipated to last through most of the day tomorrow before high pressure pushes into the region to end the week.
(The rest of today ) Skies continue to clear from west to east as the cold front and associated storm activity move east.
(18Z TAFS) Test 4 (Now through Thursday) An upper ridge over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic today as a large western states upper trof advances into the Plains. The upper trough and associated surface cold front advance eastward with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in far northwestern areas late this afternoon and tonight. The upper ridge weakens slightly and shifts east on Thursday as the upper trough and front move into the area. The higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms will remain focused generally along and west of I-65 on Thursday as surface ridging maintains it's hold over eastern portions of the area.
A cold front is about to push into nw lower MI, so for those enjoying 71f at TVC and surrounding areas, it's not going to last. By 12z, 850mb temps drop to the lower minus teens in eastern upper MI, and to the lower single digits below in the far se.
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV 137 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 Southerly flow ahead of a cold front is bringing mild conditions for early April, with most places still in the upper 60s and lower 70s early this morning. Even with mid-high level clouds today, with such a warm start we should see temps rise into the lower to mid 80s. Later in the night and on Thursday, generalized showers and thunderstorms can be expected as the cold front arrives and passes, but as winds aloft weaken, so will our severe wx threat. Cold front should be to our south at the beginning of the period with the only precipitation chances being across the southeast quarter of the forecast area.
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV 241 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 Latest surface map shows an area of low pressure over the western Great Lakes with a cold front pushing across Illinois and Iowa to the western Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is then expected to push southeast overnight. High pressure will then build in bringing the chances of precipitation to our far northern counties late. Cold front should be to our south at the beginning of the period with the only precipitation chances being across the southeast half of the forecast area.
1233 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023 (Today and tonight) Watching satellite and radar trends for possible isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland for the next few hours as a Pacific cold front moves through. Cooler today, with highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s.
Upper level ridge building in from the west will bring dry and slightly warmer conditions today. A few showers will be possible in the central mountains of Idaho were the western flank of the upper level trough remains. Scattered MVFR- IFR snow showers developing over the higher terrain this afternoon, diminishing after sunset. Light snow showers will continue over south-central Idaho through the morning as a convergence zone continues to enhance snowfall on the backside of an upper level trough. Breezy winds will continue to diminish today as an upper ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest.
(18Z TAFS) Test 2 (Now through Thursday) An upper ridge over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic today as a large western states upper trof advances into the Plains. The upper trough and associated surface cold front advance eastward with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in far northwestern areas late this afternoon and tonight. The upper ridge weakens slightly and shifts east on Thursday as the upper trough and front move into the area. The higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms will remain focused generally along and west of I-65 on Thursday as surface ridging maintains it's hold over eastern portions of the area.
Rain chances increase late this evening ahead of an approaching cold front that will bring showers and thunderstorms across the area Wed night and Thursday. Discussion: Southwesterly flow is still over our area this afternoon pulling warm gulf air to TN as the upper ridge is pushed east. The strong low pressure moving from the plains towards the Great Lakes region will pull a cold front across TN overnight and through tomorrow, which will be the cause of the expected showers and thunderstorms.
After midnight a weak upper level ridge will move into Idaho and expect dry conditions after midnight tonight through Thursday night.
Temperatures are slowly warming into the 20s and 30s over the lower elevations while spots in the high valleys and mountains are warming into the teens. On the backside of the upper level trough, we are still stuck in a cooler airmass resulting in below normal highs this afternoon. Accumulations aren't expected to amount to much, especially over the low elevations where the surface is warmer. As an upper level low pushes further northeast entering the Great Lakes, these snow showers will remain weak without forcing and will depend on orographics in the mountains. Areas south of Denver and along Loveland Pass should receive the highest dose of snowfall amounts with short-term models favoring a southerly track through our CWA; snow totals for the Palmer Divide and areas near Loveland Pass range from 1-3 inches.
246 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023 18z surface data has strong low pressure in the arrowhead of Minnesota. The strong cold front ran south from the low through the far eastern parts of Wisconsin and Illinois. Quiet, windy, dry and cool conditions will be seen from late this afternoon through Thursday as high pressure builds into the Midwest.
(18Z TAFS) Test 3 (Now through Thursday) An upper ridge over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic today as a large western states upper trof advances into the Plains. The upper trough and associated surface cold front advance eastward with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in far northwestern areas late this afternoon and tonight. The upper ridge weakens slightly and shifts east on Thursday as the upper trough and front move into the area. The higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms will remain focused generally along and west of I-65 on Thursday as surface ridging maintains it's hold over eastern portions of the area.
257 PM MDT Wed Apr 5 2023 Numerous showers have developed as expected across most of the higher terrain and some adjacent valleys this afternoon, as revealed by current satellite and radar imagery. While most surface temperatures are at or below freezing in the mountains and high valleys (especially in northwest Colorado), temperatures in the lower valleys have largely climbed above freezing. The synoptic pattern becomes more zonal on Thursday ahead of a ridge building into the Great Basin. Prevailing winds will become more westerly and allow for warmer air to start flowing back into the region. High temperatures will still be well below normal, but at least several degrees warmer than the past few days. Quiet weather continues Thursday night with high pressure in control.
(18Z TAFS) Test (Now through Thursday) An upper ridge over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic today as a large western states upper trof advances into the Plains. The upper trough and associated surface cold front advance eastward with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in far northwestern areas late this afternoon and tonight. The upper ridge weakens slightly and shifts east on Thursday as the upper trough and front move into the area. The higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms will remain focused generally along and west of I-65 on Thursday as surface ridging maintains it's hold over eastern portions of the area.
333 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 A warm front will bring a wide range in temperatures to the region this afternoon, along with periods of showers and thunderstorms as a few upper level disturbances roll across the area.
Dry and cooler conditions to end the week. Of concern is warm front slow to progress through northern CWA with thermal/backed low level flow enhanced due through southern Lakes influence. There is a final concern for linear convection tied to cold front sweeping CWA in 21-02 UTC timeframe. Model trends through this morning have begun to recognize the second round potential convective depth tied to cold front immediately in advance of northern extrusion of dryline.
Temperatures are currently in the upper 70s and are on track to reach the low 80s, especially across north Mississippi and along the Tennessee River Valley. While thermodynamic profiles have become increasingly supportive of severe storms, deep layer wind shear has weakened with the diurnal weakening of the low level jet.
Despite being in a cooler airmass overall, daytime sun has resulted in some destabilization with satellite imagery showing cumulus developed around the Denver Metro and Palmer Divide. Radar shows showers continuing to develop across the high country with showers beginning to develop over the Palmer Divide. An upper level ridge builds in Thursday, drying out conditions and warming temperatures aloft. This will support warmer highs than Weds with highs approaching 50 over the lower elevations and 20s/30s in the high country.
Transient high pressure will build over the region tonight, leading to a slightly warmer and drier start to Thursday. However, the transient nature has the ridge moving east by afternoon tomorrow and a late afternoon shower in north- central Idaho is possible.
The big story at the moment is lingering snow and strong winds as the low pressure that brought all of the wintry conditions continues its march northeastward. Based on the Giants Ridge webcam, it looks like that blob quickly reduces visibilities to 1/4 mile, but the road conditions are remaining warm enough to melt anything that develops quickly. All winds should be switching directions to the southwest as the low centroid begins to pull to the north of Lake Superior. A strong spring storm will exit tonight into Thursday bringing storm and gale force winds to the waters this evening for southwesterly winds as the low crosses the the north of Lake Superior.
While a longwave upper trough will lift northeastward this afternoon into tonight, lack of moisture through the column suggests zero chance for precipitation.
17Z observations show a large upper level low in northern Minnesota and an associated longwave trough across much of the central and northern plains with an exiting 120 kt jet streak from New Mexico through northeast Kansas. Tonight as the winds diminish skies will remain clear as the center of the high pressure moves into central Kansas. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 20s.
Issued at 232 PM Wed Apr 5 2023 More of the same expected through the end of the work week as deep-layered ridging remains overhead.
An approaching cold front tomorrow night will start to bring in showers and thunderstorms across northern Georgia.
256 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 Discussion/Marine - Narrow line of showers/storms mid to late afternoon today The cold front was crossing Lake MI early this afternoon.
(This evening through Thursday) Cold front has moved well south of the area this afternoon, with cooler and even drier air mass across the area. Wind speeds will decrease tonight and create a decent radiational cooling set up with temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s. More clouds will keep temperatures down in the lower 60s across the Hill Country on Thursday.
Many locations fell into the low 40s to near freezing! Temperatures do recover this afternoon with most locations expecting afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s. Tomorrow is expected to see temperatures a touch warmer than today but with increasing east winds. While any precipitation is welcomed, this will do little to help drought conditions that have been worsening across much of the high plains.
Currently, the area of low pressure responsible for yesterday's anomalous heat and ongoing severe weather across the Mid-Mississippi Valley is centered in northern Iowa with its cold front dragging through southwest Missouri into west-central Illinois. Along the cold front are scattered thunderstorms, many severe. The cold front will slowly move through the area, posing a risk of severe weather until it exits early this afternoon. The aforementioned low pressure system has resulted in increased pressure gradient winds as it passed earlier this evening. Winds are expected to remain elevated overnight, but the highest non- convective winds have likely passed. In our far north, temperatures could fall into the high 20s tonight. High pressure will be centered closer to the CWA, resulting in the calm winds we need for frost development.
Dew points are running in the low to mid 60s and with temperatures into the 80s across all of Middle TN, surface based CAPE values have surged into the quadruple digits this afternoon. The storms moving into Middle TN this afternoon are associated with a pre-frontal trough and as this trough moves across the area, once this initial line of storms moves through, the severe threat (wind/hail/tor) should end. Models across the board are supportive of the actual cold front, due to move through Middle TN slowly tonight, will provide a focusing mechanism for heavy rainfall.
/14 (Now through Thursday) A large upper ridge is dominating the upper levels this afternoon as it stretches across the Gulf and into the southwestern Atlantic. Southerly flow around the ridge axis and diurnal heating have allowed temperatures to warm into the lower to middle 80s inland with areas along the coast hovering in the upper 70s. Areas along the coast will likely remain mostly dry through the period as the surface ridging still holds control. Highs on Thursday range from the lower 80s over northwest portions of the area to the upper 80s over south central Alabama.
(This evening through Thursday) Our large amplitude upper trough will continue to dig across the Southern Plains along with high pressure and northerly winds down at the surface bringing in unseasonably cooler air. Dense high cloudiness currently over Baja California & Western north Mexico will be transported up through the trough resulting in cloudiness tonight across the Southern Plains. Another cold night tonight with light winds, but cloudcover may keep temperatures from going subfreezing. Temperatures across northern Oklahoma will still drop to or just above freezing. As a result, we'll start seeing a warming trend tomorrow with highs in the 60s, although still unseasonably cooler than normal for early February days.
Then next system approaching today with some light rain at the coast with a warm front offshore. More steady rain to tonight, with a cold front moving to the coast Thursday afternoon. IFR is not out of the question at the coast Thu afternoon as the cold front approaches. At 2 AM water vapor satellite imagery showed weak high pressure centered over the eastern Pacific.
1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023 (The rest of today ) Skies continue to clear from west to east as the cold front and associated storm activity move east.
234 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023 Short fuse warnings/continued Tor Watch 126 and Wind Advisory until 4 PM today as cold front is incoming/making its passage.
Upper ridging will slowly build into the area during Thursday, with a 20% chance of snow lingering around KBHK in the morning. The upper ridge will continue moving across the area Thu.
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV 1234 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 Southerly flow ahead of a cold front is bringing mild conditions for early April, with most places still in the upper 60s and lower 70s early this morning. Even with mid-high level clouds today, with such a warm start we should see temps rise into the lower to mid 80s. Later in the night and on Thursday, generalized showers and thunderstorms can be expected as the cold front arrives and passes, but as winds aloft weaken, so will our severe wx threat. Cold front should be to our south at the beginning of the period with the only precipitation chances being across the southeast quarter of the forecast area.
There will be little chance to recover ahead of the cold front that will progress eastward across lower MI this evening although RAP, HRRR, and NAM do show a few hundred J/kg possible. Models have consistently shown a fine line of showers along the front and with the strong unidirectional shear present and the low level jet still lingering with around 50 knots, some storms may bring down some higher gusts. High pressure then builds in rapidly tonight from the Plains which will bring clearing skies to the region all while the 850mb cold pool drops in from Ontario offering temps cooling down to negative single digits.
(Through Thursday) Upper level ridging will gradually be flattened, but thicknesses will still be sufficient to keep things quite warm in the near term. Enough low-level moisture return will occur ahead of a very slow-moving cold front to bring a slight to low chance of showers and thunderstorms to the northwestern half of the forecast area Thursday afternoon.
There is a tight west-northwest gradient on the east side of the ridge, with gusts over 30-35 mph at times. By Thursday morning, as the ridge shifts east, expecting a southerly flow to set up area-wide.
215 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023 (Issued 215 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023) Tonight through Thursday night: Cold front well to the east and the gusty west wind/caa regime has settled in.
Arthur A deep upper low was over the central Dakotas and will continue to shift east away from the area today. Light snow has been steadily tapering off overnight as the low shifts east. An upper ridge starts shifting east tonight and Thursday.
158 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 Deep low pressure will drag a cold front across the Ohio Valley today and tonight, providing the focus for severe thunderstorms. Drier weather will begin to move in on Thursday with high pressure. Tranquil conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of the forecast period as high pressure dominates the weather map. Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will linger early this evening as the cold front progresses east. Winds will subside as the low moves to Canada and high pressure arrives from the west. Cooler temperatures will be observed, with lows tonight in the 40s followed by highs in the 50s on Thursday.
Regional radars depict a large area of showers and thunderstorms to our W this afternoon, draped SW to NE ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread amounts of 2-3+" will occur, and given the upper level pattern (approaching low running into ridging to the SE), I think the QPF will outperform with this event, leading to enhanced flooding potential for area creeks, streams, and rivers.
155 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023 Key Messages: - Hello Spring! Warmer (above normal) air moves in this weekend, settles in for the new week. This ripple will work across some sloping Fgen running north of a sfc warm front hanging west-east near the I- 90 corridor. * COLD NEXT COUPLE DAYS - but warmer spring temps move in for the weekend, lasting through the new week. Sub freezing lows are expected for Thu/Fri mornings. The GFS/EC then transition to more longwave ridging for much of the new week, gradually inching east but still holding across the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS by Fri. The ridge building/warming has been a consistent signal in the GFS/EC and confidence continues to increase for a prolonged period of above normal temperatures. Despite the ridging, it's not looking like a dry period.
Tonight and Thursday Surface cold front was nearly through the forecast area by 19Z, with a small wedge of warmer air noted in far east-central Wisconsin. Winds will remain gusty through Thursday afternoon, and then start to drop off as high pressure builds in. Despite the winds and clouds, strong cold advection will still lead to cooler temps tonight. Cool and brisk on Thursday, with highs ranging from the lower 30s in the north-central WI where clouds will be present, to the lower and middle 40s in central and east- central WI where more sun should break through.
The surface- and mid-level ridge which has dominated the sensible weather over the past several days will continue to slide eastward in the central Atlantic. This is in response to a strongly negatively-tilted trough over the Midwest sliding eastward into the severe weather-stricken East Coast and Southeast over the next couple of days.
Activity will increase this evening as a warm front approaches from the west, raising chances of rainfall across west side counties. The warm front is expected to stall before bringing widespread precipitation and gusty winds later in the day Thursday. Rogue Valleys, east of the Cascades, and ridges.
1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023 (Today and tonight) Cooler and much drier air has overspread most of Oklahoma and western north Texas behind a cold front.
319 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 A cold front will push through the middle Ohio Valley tonight with showers ending west to east Thursday morning. Will need to watch this area carefully as forcing moves into the Lower Scioto River Valley and north/northeast KY early this evening. Low pressure located near Lake Superior will continue toward Hudson Bay tonight. A cold front will slowly push east tonight, clearing the CWA by midnight. Skies begin to clear Thursday night as high pressure builds in from the west. This sprawling ridge will extend into the forecast area through the period.
803 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will end overnight and early Thursday morning with the passage of a strong cold front. A cold front will pass through our forecast area between 4z and 9z with one last area of showers and possible thunderstorms. As an expanding area of high pressure moves across the Ohio Valley during the midday and afternoon, enough dry air will work into our region to allow for definitive clearing. It will be a breezy and notably cooler day, particularly across the western counties, where temps will be some 20 degrees lower than the readings we saw at times earlier today.
828 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 (Through Thursday) Upper level ridging will gradually be flattened, but thicknesses will still be sufficient to keep things quite warm in the near term. Enough low-level moisture return will occur ahead of a very slow-moving cold front to bring a slight to low chance of showers and thunderstorms to the northwestern half of the forecast area Thursday afternoon.
614 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Cold front has moved well south of the area this afternoon, with cooler and even drier air mass across the area. Wind speeds will decrease tonight and create a decent radiational cooling set up with temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s. More clouds will keep temperatures down in the lower 60s across the Hill Country on Thursday.