Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
939 AM MDT Wed Mar 22 2023 Morning Update: Satellite imagery and observations are showing low clouds and patchy freezing fog is advancing through some locations and receding from other locations this morning. Upper trough currently moving through the area will keep winter- like cold over the area today. The upper trough moves to the east today. Skies will vary from clear to overcast with low clouds and patchy to areas of freezing fog. The freezing fog is expected to diminish by late morning while the low clouds will linger over parts of the region. Upper ridge moves in tonight which will bring somewhat warmer temperatures on Thursday.
Tonight and Thursday A weak cold front will move across the area during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
/13 (Now through Thursday) Upper ridging will build over the northern Gulf and southeast CONUS through this evening and then shift eastward late tonight through Thursday as an upper trough moves over the southern Rockies. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s inland, and range from 57 to 62 degrees closer to the coast.
While with warm layer is less robust in recent model runs, soundings still show marginal ice introduction which may allow for ice pellets or light freezing rain on elevated surfaces, primarily in the highway 20 to 30 corridor.
A low pressure system moving across the area will provide cool and breezy conditions with isolated to scattered showers this afternoon and evening.
Overnight lows into early tomorrow morning will be running mostly 5-10 degrees above normal, though slightly cooler than what we saw this morning.
Mid level ridging in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to amplify and shift eastward across the Florida peninsula through the end of the week as upper heights peak around 590 dam or slightly more.
Until then, moist mid levels with weak ascent will battle with sfc ridging and remnants of the prior dry air mass to create generally isolated very light rain showers/sprinkles through the early evening. Combined with renewed moist advection driving area PWATs near the 90th percentile for time of year, rain (heavy at times) is expected near a surface warm front/stationary boundary lying roughly across northwest PA. Elevated instability may foster a lightning strike or two, but the main threat for the period will be the low probability localized flooding, which will more likely occur in low-lying, flood-prone locations.
Locally, the ridge axis will be stretched across the Florida Peninsula. A large mid level anticyclone over the region Fri wl shift E-SE and flatten. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge centered well east of FL will drift south, with its western flank gradually eroding as a weak cool front approaches the Florida peninsula Fri night-early Sat. The front will wash out near the northern CWA, with its carcass getting shunted back northward by the rebuilding ridge by Sun night.
246 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2023 Widespread freezing fog/mist and low clouds from this morning has mostly eroded out to a partly cloudy sky this afternoon, allowing temperatures to climb into the 20s north of MT Highway 200 and into the 30s south of MT Highway 200. Model indications suggest that freezing fog and low clouds will reform again tonight around midnight and persist through the morning hours tomorrow. Although, seasonally warmer temperatures are REALLY trying to work their way in here despite the colder air mass in place. This weekend, a cold front and slightly better organized storm system will move over our region from British Columbia. Expect another round of freezing fog with reduced visibilities that should improve by mid-day Thursday.
(Today through Thursday) Our weather today and tomorrow will be mainly influenced by high pressure aloft parked over the Gulf of Mexico. Tonight southerly surface flow will help to continue to moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere and as temperatures and dewpoint meet patchy dense fog will be possible across the eastern portions of the CWA late tonight into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow south to southwesterly flow both aloft and at the surface will persist allowing for much warmer and dry conditions across north and central GA.
Main impact tonight will be next batch of moisture rotating north form Utah ahead of upper low pushing east through northern Utah into Central Wyoming tonight. The next upper trof and associated cold front will approach southeastern Idaho Thursday afternoon through Thursday night with more mountain snow and valley rain and snow.
On the other side of the front, the anticipated warmer temperatures into the 70s and 80s prevailed with gusty SW winds.
Dry and slightly warmer temperatures then set in through the weekend.
Temperatures across the island chain peaked up in the lower to mid 80s. The major notable difference is the lack of moisture seen in the lower levels of today's observation. These details along with mid to upper level ridging draped across the Gulf Coast will continue to help hinder convective activity through the rest of today. Winds will surge later this evening with ridging continuing to build over mainland Florida.
A few showers may linger into early this evening, but as an upper ridge begins to build over the region tonight any leftover showers will quickly end with dry weather the remainder of the night.
Highs for today look to be about 5 degrees warmer or more than yesterday as upper ridging continues to build across the area. Upper level ridging will build over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida through the week while drifting east and eventually out into the western Atlantic Ocean this weekend as troughing moves across the central and eastern states.
Upper flow aloft over the central Plains has also been mostly zonal to slightly southwesterly as a Pacific trough continues to dig into the southern Cal and Desert Southwest regions. Thus, 40s have been the result along the highway 36 corridor with 80 degrees currently at Emporia! Not much movement of this quasi-stationary boundary takes place until early tomorrow morning. Some could again be dense before dry air begins pushing into the area as high pressure to the north expands south during the morning hours tomorrow.
231 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023 Clouds under a rather strong inversion per 12z KDVN sounding kept temperatures a few degrees warmer today. Latest GOES visible satellite shows some thinning of the low stratus, as well as some convective clouds over north central IL. Lastly, 18z MSAS analysis and surface observations show warm front stretching from near Kansas City through northern MO, to near Springfield IL. This activity will quickly shift east out of the area before sunrise Thursday, as a cold front moves through. Overnight lows, will be in the low 30s north, to the lower 40s in west central IL.
1230 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023 Satellite is showing persistent stratus with the incoming high pressure this morning.
Low temperatures will range from the lower 40s west of the Illinois River. Overnight, the airmass north of the front will feature a stable near-surface layer, but with MUCAPE from 100-500 J/kg and plentiful southwesterly shear roughly parallel to the boundary we anticipate a threat of thunderstorms in a persistent warm advection regime owing to the overnight intensification of the low level jet. South of the front, the near surface air will be much warmer and more humid, but forecast soundings still feature a near isothermal layer at the surface. Coverage of convection/showers is forecast to decrease by late morning or so on Thursday as the low level jet weakens. Following that point, precipitation should largely hold off until late afternoon/early evening with the cold front continuing to move southward during the day, reaching a position south of I-70 by late afternoon.
658 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023 (Tonight) A warm front lingering over the southeastern US is expected to continue northeast this evening, allowing precipitation to gradually conclude from southwest to northeast of our area. The low temperature tonight is expected to drop into the upper 40s/lower 50s with skies mostly clearing out with the rainfall.
Several spots have already dropped into the low single digits, so adjusted temps down just a bit.
TFJ Widespread freezing fog/mist and low clouds from this morning has mostly eroded out to a partly cloudy sky this afternoon, allowing temperatures to climb into the 20s north of MT Highway 200 and into the 30s south of MT Highway 200. Model indications suggest that freezing fog and low clouds will reform again tonight around midnight and persist through the morning hours tomorrow. Although, seasonally warmer temperatures are REALLY trying to work their way in here despite the colder air mass in place. This weekend, a cold front and slightly better organized storm system will move over our region from British Columbia.
Flooding will continue to linger in the lower elevations, especially in Yavapai and northern Gila counties. A broad trough over the California coast will continue to gradually shift east through the overnight hours. Will continue with the flood watch across the lower elevations of Yavapai and Gila Counties through this evening. The trough axis will pivot over Arizona Thursday.
The next cold front works it way east tomorrow and will start spreading rain and maybe a few rumbles of thunder into middle TN Thursday night.
715 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023 Inverted trough will push off to the northeast throughout today and tonight with high pressure ridging and dry weather settling in over the southeastern US. High temperatures this afternoon will reach up into the lower to mid 80s for inland areas and in the mid 70s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 50s for inland areas and in the lower 60s along the shoreline. High pressure ridging will maintain over the region through the end of the week resulting in dry weather, mild winds, and predominantly clear skies. Temperatures will warm to near record level highs for the end of the week with daily max temps reaching up into the upper 80s and lower 90s for inland areas and in the lower 80s along the coast.
The low stratus clouds are eroding still, but should rebuild after midnight. Fog is still possible across the south, however confidence is low as we think the models are just picking up the low stratus overnight.
(This afternoon through Thursday) Widespread showers across North Georgia remain ongoing after a moist, overrunning Gulf air pushing inland across the lower Mississippi River Valley ascends over a stationary front draped across the forecast area. Any fog and low-level cloud coverage that does for seems to dissolve in the late morning hours as high temperatures rise to around 80 degrees! with dewpoints in the low-50s which should provide a nice mini-taste of summer to end the week. With moisture surges likely to become more common, it's possible we've seen the last of freezing temperatures for the season (outside of the higher elevations) but only time and Mother Nature know for sure.
Dry air aloft and high pressure subsidence will likely cause a similar situation as last night, except for the Great Falls and Lewistown areas, where southerly winds developing after midnight should hold off the dense fog tonight.
A cold front will move across the area on Thursday bringing more beneficial rain and mountain snow. Snow levels will plummet behind the cold front by Thursday evening with some snow accumulation down to about 2000 feet.
Quick update this evening to add in isolated showers to the lower/upper Treasure Valley, Weiser Basin, and Magic Valley. Shower activity over the lower valleys should dissipate quickly after sunset, before the next round rolls in overnight into Thursday.
Strong cold front late Thursday will bring snow showers and gusty northwest winds up to 40kt after 0z/Fri, reaching SW Idaho around 3-6z/Fri.
629 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023 The low stratus clouds are eroding still, but should rebuild after midnight. Fog is still possible across the south, however confidence is low as we think the models are just picking up the low stratus overnight.
Clouds under a rather strong inversion per 12z KDVN sounding kept temperatures a few degrees warmer today. Latest GOES visible satellite shows some thinning of the low stratus, as well as some convective clouds over north central IL. Lastly, 18z MSAS analysis and surface observations show warm front stretching from near Kansas City through northern MO, to near Springfield IL. This activity will quickly shift east out of the area before sunrise Thursday, as a cold front moves through. Overnight lows, will be in the low 30s north, to the lower 40s in west central IL.
Currently - Deep layered ridging has become established across the broader area. These breezes are maintaining warmer than normal conditions with temperatures in the mid 70s and dew points in the mid 60s. This along with the background ridging and lack of low level lift is allowing for sprinkles at best within mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Ridging will continue to dominate maintaining moderate to fresh northeast to easterly flow. Temperatures will struggle to fall much and overnight lows are expected to be in the lower 70s with dew points holding in the mid 60s. A ridge extending from off New England to the Gulf of Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh mostly northeast to easterly flow across Keys waters through the overnight period.
- Mixed precipitation in the form of snow, freezing drizzle, and rain are expected farther south. Today and Tomorrow: Temperatures are a few degrees cooler due to a frontal passage this morning. Freezing drizzle will be possible in areas north and along of a line from Columbus to Onawa. A high pressure slowly moving southeast out of Canada will lead to a cooler Thursday.
450 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2023 Current upper air analysis shows split for for the western NOAM, with ridging over west Canada and trough over the CA/NV region, converging near our area. At the surface, high pressure sits over eastern SD, while a warm frontal boundary sits west/east oriented over southern WY. Farther north and east precip will struggle to overcome the dry high pressure air.
736 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023 Last night's warm front has now lifted north of Middle Tennessee, so we are expecting the rare phenomenon of rising overnight temperatures as a southerly surface flow continues to strengthen. The next cold front works it way east tomorrow and will start spreading rain and maybe a few rumbles of thunder into middle TN Thursday night.
High pressure across the region will maintain southeast winds across the coastal waters through the end of the week, though winds will shift onshore each day with the sea breeze.
Tomorrow looks warmer than today with max temps in the mid 80s for well inland locations. Min temps Thu night/Fri morning will be well above normal as well, only falling into the lower 70s out ahead of the approaching cool front.
346 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Discussion/Marine -- Rain ending today -- A surface cold front has moved into the forecast area from the west. Low pressure is centered further southwest along the front in Kansas. This low will sweep northeast up the front today taking the precipitation with it off to the east and southeast of the forecast area.
Flooding will continue to linger in the lower elevations tonight, especially in Yavapai and northern Gila counties. A broad trough over the California coast will continue to gradually shift east through the overnight hours. Will continue with the flood watch across the lower elevations of Yavapai and Gila Counties through this evening. The trough axis will pivot over Arizona Thursday. By Friday, northwesterly flow will develop over northern Arizona in the wake of the trough. Another round of upslope showers will be possible over the higher elevations.
A cold front is progged to push through sometime the latter half of the weekend with high pressure building in behind.
Overnight, a strong low-level jet redevelops and will overrun the low-level quasi-stationary boundary. Strong 1-6KM shear, above the low-level stable layer, and elongated hodographs suggest hail will be the main hazard with this activity. Models do show some snow mixing in but at this time the lower-levels look too warm and the system not being dynamic enough to help cool the column to introduce any snow.
147 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 GOES 16 Water Vapor imagery shows a good bit of dry air spreading across the forecast area behind yeterday's cold front. So far, temps have largely hovered in the low 30s across the forecast area. Ridging begins Thursday, which should ensure dry weather the rest of the work week. This will help to keep in cooler temperatures along the Superior shoreline, with highs mainly in the lower to mid 30s. Temperatures rebound nicely for Friday, though, peaking in the lower 40s across much of the area with cooler readings in the mid/upper 30s along the shorelines. Late Friday, attention shifts to a deep trough exiting the Southern Plains.
Friday, a deep upper level trough moves into the area pushing the jet stream south.
139 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 A warm front will lift north into the Ohio valley where it will be the focus for rounds of showers Thursday into Friday, placing most of our region with a pattern of dry and mild weather.
The low stratus clouds are eroding still, but should rebuild after midnight. Fog is still possible across the south, however confidence is low as we think the models are just picking up the low stratus overnight. Temperatures will start to warm up a few degrees Friday as a weak ridge traverses across the Northern Plains. Temperatures across western and central North Dakota are forecast to warm above freezing with the southwest warming into the mid 40s, but temperatures will still remain below normal for this time of year. A cold front is forecast to move through the region Friday evening resulting in colder temperatures over the weekend.
Discussion: We will remain under the northern edge of the large upper ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico today. Tonight the upper ridge will be sliding slowly east, and a surface cold front will be sagging slowly south from the Ohio River Valley but will remain to our north overnight.
1026 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2023 Current upper air analysis shows split for for the western NOAM, with ridging over west Canada and trough over the CA/NV region, converging near our area. At the surface, high pressure sits over eastern SD, while a warm frontal boundary sits west/east oriented over southern WY. Farther north and east precip will struggle to overcome the dry high pressure air. Expect a brief warmup for Friday as a weak fast moving ridge crosses the northern plains, with temps warming up to the 40s and low 50s.
High pressure with a mid-level ridge will continue to dominate the pattern across South Florida the rest of the week. Temperatures will continue to rise as well with temps in the low 80s and mid to upper 80s over the interior and west coast. Temps will be in the low to mid 80s for the east coast with upper 80s for GUlf coast, and 90 degrees over some areas of the western interior.
(Today and Tonight) Heavy rain, flooding and severe weather potential highlight the forecast today and tonight, with concerns centered around how much of a southward push the cold front makes today before it begins to slow, influencing where the heaviest rains will develop.
127 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Last night's warm front has now lifted north of Middle Tennessee, so we are expecting the rare phenomenon of rising overnight temperatures as a southerly surface flow continues to strengthen. The next cold front works it way east tomorrow and will start spreading rain and maybe a few rumbles of thunder into middle TN Thursday night.
This activity to wane as the morning progresses and short wave aloft passes, leaving both sfc and upper ridging to fill in in it's wake.
A cold front will continue to move southward through the state throughout the day Thursday, eventually clearing the area by Friday morning.
Afterwards, cloud cover begins to erode as high pressure begins to slide towards the area, with subsidence strengthening by Friday as skies begin to clear out.
1210 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 A series of crossing frontal boundaries and eventually low pressure will keep rain in the forecast into the weekend.
309 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Key Messages: - High pressure building into the region today will bring a break from precipitation chances through the remainder of the work week with near seasonable temperatures.
1152 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) High pressure is ridging from the along the mid Atlantic coast down through the northern gulf coast while low pressure is across the central plains. Aloft, a ridge is over the northwest gulf coast and a pair of disturbances are embedded in a larger trough over the SW states. Friday the upper trough from the SW state will move into central sections of the country while yet another area of low pressure deepens in the plains and ejects northeast. Lift and moisture will increase ahead of the approaching trough which will increase thunderstorm chances through the day.
That activity will be more confined to the higher elevations though.
Upper flow aloft over the central Plains has also been mostly zonal to slightly southwesterly as a Pacific trough continues to dig into the southern Cal and Desert Southwest regions. Thus, 40s have been the result along the highway 36 corridor with 80 degrees currently at Emporia! Not much movement of this quasi-stationary boundary takes place until early tomorrow morning. Some could again be dense before dry air begins pushing into the area as high pressure to the north expands south during the morning hours tomorrow. Late Friday, it appears most guidance wants to lift the main Pacific trough into the area as a negatively tilted open wave.
Huston Main impact tonight will be next batch of moisture rotating north form Utah ahead of upper low pushing east through northern Utah into Central Wyoming tonight. The next upper trof and associated cold front will approach southeastern Idaho Thursday afternoon through Thursday night with more mountain snow and valley rain and snow.
155 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas. Cold front arrives Friday night, providing a cool down for the weekend.
This morning: Surface cold front has pushed south of the CWA, generally stretching from near Jefferson City to near Wichita. Chances for rain return area-wide by Friday as large scale ascent occurs with the approach of a highly-amplified trough.
Upper level ridging will build over Florida to end the week with warm and dry conditions persisting.
336 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 A growing ridge will make things warm and dry today and tomorrow.
South to southwesterly flow both aloft and at the surface will persist allowing for warmer and dry conditions across north and central GA. Tonight southwesterly flow will continue to advect moisture into the lower levels as low temperatures only fall into the mid to upper 50s.
1235 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 A coastal trough will lift north tonight allowing much warmer weather to develop Thursday and Friday.
336 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 A weak warm front will lift slowly northward through the region this morning.
1002 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 A growing ridge will make things warm and dry today and tomorrow.
528 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 A warm front will lift north into the Ohio valley where it will be the focus for rounds of showers Thursday into Friday, placing most of our region with a pattern of dry and mild weather.
605 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Key Messages: - High pressure building into the region today will bring a break from precipitation chances through the remainder of the work week with near seasonable temperatures.