Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
232 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 Low pressure remains to our north over the Upper Mississippi Valley today, spinning largely in place. We'll be in the cool westerly flow beneath this low today, with an area of low clouds progressing eastward across the region a sign of this cool advection. In fact, forecast high at Quincy is just 1 degree warmer than their current temperature as of 2AM. We'll drop back below freezing for just about the entire forecast area tonight. On Thursday morning we'll see another push of cool advection around the base of the upper low, leading to another uptick in cloud cover and perhaps slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow than are observed today. This will be the last push of cooler air as the low finally begins to push east into the Great Lakes on Thursday.
Warm and dry conditions will continue today across the region as high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s across South Florida. Low temps tonight in the lower 70s for the east coast metro, and mid to upper 60s elsewhere. On Thursday, a cold front approaches South Florida. Also, with the front coming through later part of the day Thursday high temperatures will still climb well above average, ranging from the low 80s in the interior to mid 80s along the East Coast.
This front is expected to gradually stall over the forecast area this evening as the parent trough axis driving the front shifts further to the northeast, and a secondary impulse and jet max rounding the base of a longwave trough axis approaches from the west. Overall, a very pleasant period of weather is expected starting tomorrow and lasting through Thursday night with temperatures near to slightly warmer than average beneath clear skies.
Temperatures will warm up over the next couple of days as heights rise over the region in response to upper level ridging building into the Southwest. Attention then turns to a strong low pressure system currently out over the eastern Pacific that will bring more weather impacts to California. The latest NBM PoPs puts chances across JTNP upwards of 70-80% with lower chances across the lower elevations of southeast California where rain shadowing will limit any shower activity. Looking ahead through the weekend, ensembles are in fairly good agreement keeping a large scale trough well off the West Coast and upper level ridging from the Interior West into the Plains States. After a weak disturbance likely brings light precipitation to mainly central Arizona early today, high pressure will settle in across much of the region through at least the middle of the week.
In the lower levels, normal drainage wind patterns are expected tonight. There is enough in the lower levels of the mountains to warrant "likely" light snow all night. However, they should be a good 10 degrees F warmer on Wednesday over the Stratus-ed in areas of today. An upper level ridge continues to build over the region Wednesday evening into Thursday. For the plains, there will be light southerly winds off the Palmer Divide to start the day with potential for development of a Denver Cyclone in the afternoon. Warming temperatures aloft will result in highs returning to average (40s) for the I-25 corridor and slightly cooler in the 30s over the eastern plains. Thursday evening, the ridge axis shifts to the east as a weak upper level trough. Model cross sections show an increase in moisture over the high country overnight.
--Dense Fog Threat Tonight and Wednesday Morning-- Sfc warm front is still located just south of the MI/IN border but expected to make some northward progress tonight before becoming a triple point/occlusion overhead on Wednesday. One limiting factor this evening for dense fog is the potential for a decent batch of showers (and perhaps even isolated tstms) to come through, which would temporarily mix out the lower visibilities. --Light Snow/Rain Mix Wednesday Night and Thursday-- As the upper low over Iowa slowly meanders in our direction the next few days, periodic light precip will persist within moist cyclonic flow pattern. Minimal travel impacts expected as any snow accumulations should be under an inch and sfc temps look too marginal to support much of a freezing rain or drizzle threat.
134 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 A cold front will move across the area today bringing chances for light rain and snow into Thursday.
Current satellite shows a strong upper level low pressure system over the Northern Kansas and Nebraska which is bringing some clouds to this area this afternoon. High pressure will remain in control keeping the precipitation chances out of the forecast for the short term. By Thursday afternoon, ridging will start to build into the region but this will be too little too late to allow temperatures to climb much if at all above normal.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) At 0730Z, WV imagery shows the main trough axis has cleared West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as reflected in gradually diminishing winds in the mountains. Upper- level ridging begins building into the region today, resulting in a steep increase in thicknesses, increasing highs this afternoon 3-4F over yesterday's.
1049 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 As the area of low pressure and warm front advance slowly toward and into the area, the visibility will get progressively lower with dense fog likely. Deep and stacked cyclone continues to slowly rotate through the Cornbelt. Luckily for our area low level temperatures continue to gradually warm with a bulk of the forecast area at or above freezing as of this afternoon.
(Today and tonight) We will continue to be under cyclonic flow aloft today as a strong upper low slowly meanders across the Midwest. Cyclonic flow aloft will begin to be replaced by short wave ridging overnight tonight.
Other than the low stratus and fog, the weather remains pretty quiet. Building heights and a more progressive flow late in the period may bring some warmer temperatures our way.
The low pressure system bringing impacts to portions of the northern and central plains to the Great Lakes will shift out of the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with sun finally starting to peak through the cloud deck once again. 500mb ridging will move into the Northern Plains with split flow expected across North America.
SRH values are in the 250-300 range and mainly in the lowest levels. 75 (Tonight through Wednesday) Round 2 of showers and thunderstorms will be moving across C AL over the next few hours along an approaching cold front. Conditions will improve for tonight generally, but some cloud cover will be noted tonight as the upper low moves across the N Central US with the trough bringing some mid/upper moisture over the S US.
Any chance for light snow across the Treasure Valley will be limited to Wednesday evening, though confidence in lower elevation snowfall continues to decrease as models trend warmer.
255 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 KEY MESSAGES 1) Periods of light snow continue today although any additional accumulations will be minor 2) Northwest winds remain elevated today with persistent drifting issues 3) Quieter conditions ahead with temperatures largely below normal Today: 500 mb closed low currently along the MN/IA border will slowly wobble in place through the day.
1154 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 00Z upper air analysis places a mid-level trough axis over portions of the Plains, Rockies, and Upper Midwest with an upper level low located over Iowa this evening. Meanwhile, 02Z surface analysis still places an occluding cold front from Central Iowa south through Central Illinois and along the Mississippi River in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Mid-afternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed a deep closed upper low centered over northeast Nebraska. At the surface, an occluded front extended across southern IA, to a cold front that extended south through the middle and lower MS River Valley. This cold front was not particularly well-defined as it extended across AR.
A surface cold front is completing its trip through the area this morning. The airmass behind it is appreciably cooler and drier. Max temps should struggle to reach 50 anywhere, and will probably be in the lower 40s in the northern parts of the area. Pockets of middle and high clouds are likely as the upper trough axis moves eastward. Dry and cool tonight with temperatures around freezing.
An upper level trough is forecast to track across the Southern Plains today, with the forecast area at the base of this feature. Expect overnight lows closer to seasonal normals, in the low to mid 30s.
This is due to strong deep layered ridging stretching southwest to northeast across our area. This ridge is driving gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys. This evenings sounding indicated inhibition through the lower levels above a fairly shallow boundary layer. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned deep layered ridge will shift subtly eastward overnight as a mid latitude trough migrates eastward. Dew points will range broadly in the lower 70s. A broad ridge will continue to extend west southwestward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico through the overnight.
1039 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) As the main H500 low pressure system departs northeast into the upper Midwest and gives those folks an abundance of snow, we will remain dry throughout the short term forecast period. With temperatures near to slightly below average throughout the day today, cooler temperatures will continue into tonight with low temperatures ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s.
1201 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 The lull before the cold front is currently happening. then, we will begin to see some destabilization once again as the aforementioned cold front heads our way.
An area of mainly stratiform showers with some embedded lightning strikes remains across parts of south/east MS, but these will depart before daybreak as the cold front continues to push eastward out of the area. Otherwise, surface ridging will build eastward over the region with dry conditions in the near term and only some lingering higher clouds as the upper trough axis is still just to the west. Temps today will still be a bit above average in the immediate wake of the front, but it will turn seasonably cooler tonight.
1022 PM MST Tue Jan 3 2023 03z surface analysis had weak ridge over the CWA creating light/variable winds. Deep upper trough and associate winter storm exiting the region this afternoon, with lingering light snow and breezy conds over parts of scentral SD.
830 PM MST Tue Jan 3 2023 03z surface analysis had weak ridge over the CWA creating light/variable winds. Deep upper trough and associate winter storm exiting the region this afternoon, with lingering light snow and breezy conds over parts of scentral SD.
157 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Cold front along with showers and a few thunderstorms will move through the region today and offshore tonight.
1139 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 - Cooler temperatures but still trending above normal.
High pressure builds into the region on Wednesday, resulting in warmer temperatures and mainly dry conditions.
More seasonable cooler temperatures and dry through mid week. The upper level low over the upper midwest will continue to slowly churn its way to across the Great Lakes region today and tonight. This will continue to bring cooler, though seasonable, and drier air into the Ozarks.
This lingering convection will continue to exit NE AL to the E/NE heading into the daytime period, as a cold front also sweeps eastward thru the mid TN Valley. The front should then be east of the area later this morning, with cooler/drier air gradually beginning to spread into the area in the wake of the front going more into the afternoon hrs. High temps for the day will likely occur this morning, with temp trends then remaining near steady in the lower/mid 60s well into the afternoon period.
* ON/OFF PCPN INTO THU: mostly light snow, light-minor amounts Slow moving, stacked low pressure system meanders eastward over the next couple days, getting a nudge from an upper level ridge moving out of the rockies. Some hints that there could be a periodic loss of ice here and there, making drizzle/freezing drizzle more likely. * DRIER, QUIETER WEEKEND, START TO NEW WEEK SPC cluster analysis continues to suggest the region will come under the influence of an upper level ridge this weekend, continuing to influence the region for at least the early part of the new week - potentially the whole week. Poor flying conditions will persist as a low pressure system progresses very slowly eastward through early Thursday. Although patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle could occur, snow will become the predominant precip type, especially tonight.
The low pressure system that brought snow to parts of the area yesterday has moved eastward into southern Minnesota, leaving the forecast area under a weak high pressure with calm to light surface winds.
Upper ridge will be building over the region today through Thursday.
(Rest of Today) The cold front that brought the area heavy rain and severe thunderstorms last night has pushed well off to our east. In its wake, a cooler and drier airmass is filtering in from the northwest.
SE wind flow gradually turning more SW ahead of a cold front that will bring rain chances with some storms possible this afternoon/evening into tomorrow morning. Winds become onshore late tonight along the Nature Coast ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move into the Florida Pan Handle this afternoon, Cedar Key around sunrise tomorrow, I-4 corridor around lunch, then southwest Florida Thursday afternoon.
A mid/upper ridge will take its place, and should provide quiet weather for the midweek period.
While winds will remain elevated through the short term period, we can expect a period of relatively tranquil weather conditions with the passage of a transitory ridge on Thursday.
522 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (Today through Thursday) High pressure building into the region means a quiet short term period. We will see an enhancement in the ridge today bringing an additional drop of a few degrees in dewpoints, but still expect a very warm day on a dry northwesterly flow. Have temps topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s, but woulnd't be surprised if some locations are even warmer with the somewhat downslope flow we can see with this wind direction. Low temperatures tonight are likely to fall into the 40s for much of the area under mainly clear skies as high pressure settles in. By Thursday, high pressure will be shifting east of the area and winds will gradually shift around to the southeast, albeit still at light levels.
404 AM MST Wed Jan 4 2023 Fog across El Paso county has diminished early this morning as northwest winds aloft have been increasing and eroding the low level moisture. For today, some isolated morning snow showers across the central mountains will gradually diminish this morning with rising heights expected out west as the upper ridge translates in tonight. Lee troughing tonight will keep enhanced westerly winds continuing along the lower eastern slopes into portions of the I-25 corridor, and this should help keep temperatures slightly warmer with lows in the 20s to possibly near 30 where winds don't decouple. With clear skies early in the evening temperatures across some of the high valley locations will drop quickly with readings down around 0.
332 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 Upper low over the Twin Cities continues to wrap in areas of light snow across the eastern CWA, but it's been patchy in nature with minimal accumulations. Really not much going on in the extended with the region situated between longwave troughs and weak flow overhead.
Upper low over the Twin Cities continues to wrap in areas of light snow across the eastern CWA, but it's been patchy in nature with minimal accumulations. Really not much going on in the extended with the region situated between longwave troughs and weak flow overhead.
(Now through Thursday) An active line of convection currently oriented near/along the I-65 corridor will continue eastward and exit the forecast area during the early morning hours with a cold front following closely behind. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 70s, then Thursday will be cooler with highs in the 60s. Lows tonight range from the mid 40s inland to the lower 50s at the coast.
For temperatures, inland highs for today/Thursday will range from the mid to upper 60s north to the low to mid 70s south (mid to upper 60s are expected at the beaches) while lows areawide bottom out in the 40s/50s.
717 AM MST Wed Jan 4 2023 Patchy fog will dissipate this morning in the Milk River Valley, with warmer and drier southwesterly winds forecast to increase today across much of the Treasure State. gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information /ISSUED 300 AM MST Wed Jan 4 2023/ Weak upper-level ridging sits just overtop of the Northern Rockies and will continue to propagate eastward over the rest of the Treasure State over the course of the next several days. There are some discrepancies related to the positioning of the upper-level ridging, but the general consensus is that high pressure ridging will prevail over the Treasure State, continuing the overall pattern of fair and dry conditions. Thereafter, the southwesterly winds associated with the aforementioned propagating upper-level ridging will assist in advecting drier and warmer air into the valley.
(Today through Thursday night) Several vort maxes will move across the Panhandles through tonight on the southwest edge of the upper level low moving through Iowa. Highs today are expected to be around normal with readings on Thursday about 5 to 10 degrees warmer.
Ridging aloft builds across the area Thursday ahead of the next long wave trough moving onto the west coast.
Today is a transition day for the cwa as the area lies in between the exiting upper low and an approaching ridge which is currently pushing into the Rockies.
426 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Cooler air in the wake of a cold front will keep temperatures nearly steady through today. At surface cold front approaching Interstate 69 corridor and will push east through northwest Ohio near daybreak. Occluded front beneath mature/stacked mid level system becomes west to east oriented well north of CWA later today as cooler/drier airmass gradually establishes. Temporary split flow regime as upper low continues to lift out/dampen into southeast Canada.
630 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday) Round 2 of showers and thunderstorms will be moving across C AL over the next few hours along an approaching cold front. Conditions will improve for tonight generally, but some cloud cover will be noted tonight as the upper low moves across the N Central US with the trough bringing some mid/upper moisture over the S US.
226 AM MST Wed Jan 4 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a pacific trough leaving the Great Plains for the Mississippi Valley and a ridge developing just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Today through Thursday: Dense fog is the order of the day as MaxTs reach above freezing in the southwest melting snow and then light winds migrate that new moisture over the shallowing inversion in the northeast River Valleys where it slowly moistens the surface airmass. Meanwhile, the Pacific ridge to the west will mopve onshore over British Columbia and spill out over the Front Range of Alberta generating a chinook.
843 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 The High Wind Warning has been allowed to expire. (Today through Thursday afternoon) At 0730Z, WV imagery shows the main trough axis has cleared West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as reflected in gradually diminishing winds in the mountains. Upper- level ridging begins building into the region today, resulting in a steep increase in thicknesses, increasing highs this afternoon 3-4F over yesterday's.
(Today through Thursday) A cold front is currently positioned over the central portions of the state this morning. The front is finally feeling the H5 trough upstream now helping move the band of convection along and ahead of the front downstream.
High pressure will begin to dominate the atmosphere today, resulting in warmer temperatures and mainly dry conditions.
Overcast skies this morning will break toward noon resulting in a sunny afternoon with a high pressure ridge over the Northern Rockies (NR). A large and strong upper low pressure system off the California and Oregon coast will usher in west to southwest winds and considerable clouds across the NR this evening.
A transient ridge pushes over the region tonight finally bringing an end to shower activity before midnight. However, high clouds will be moving through the ridge as a storm over the eastern Pacific strengthens. Clouds will continue to stream across the region as the eastern Pacific storm moves ashore over the West Coast as an open wave trough. Flow shifts to the southwest ahead of the trough though moisture will take awhile to reach the area.
In the mid to upper levels, an elongated deep layered ridge extends from Belize/Honduras northeast to Cuba, through the northwest and central Bahamas, northeastward to east of Bermuda in the North Atlantic. Water vapor satellite imagery shows an impressive mid- latitude cyclone located over south-central Minnesota this morning. An occluded front extends from the center of the low eastward to southwest Michigan where a cold front then extends to the south into the north Gulf of Mexico. Deep layer ridging remains in place across the Florida Keys for today through Thursday keeping it warm and dry.
229 AM MST Wed Jan 4 2023 The low pressure system that brought snow to parts of the area yesterday has moved eastward into southern Minnesota, leaving the forecast area under a weak high pressure with calm to light surface winds.
437 AM MST Wed Jan 4 2023 Fog, locally dense in the Milk River Valley, is expected to redevelop early this morning, but warmer and drier southwesterly winds are forecast to increase today across much of the Treasure State, lasting through the afternoon. Weak upper-level ridging sits just overtop of the Northern Rockies and will continue to propagate eastward over the rest of the Treasure State over the course of the next several days. There are some discrepancies related to the positioning of the upper-level ridging, but the general consensus is that high pressure ridging will prevail over the Treasure State, continuing the overall pattern of fair and dry conditions. Thereafter, the southwesterly winds associated with the aforementioned propagating upper-level ridging will assist in advecting drier and warmer air into the valley.
443 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) At 0730Z, WV imagery shows the main trough axis has cleared West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as reflected in gradually diminishing winds in the mountains. Upper- level ridging begins building into the region today, resulting in a steep increase in thicknesses, increasing highs this afternoon 3-4F over yesterday's.
500 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (Today through Thursday night) Several vort maxes will move across the Panhandles through tonight on the southwest edge of the upper level low moving through Iowa. Highs today are expected to be around normal with readings on Thursday about 5 to 10 degrees warmer.
641 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Cooler air in the wake of a cold front will keep temperatures nearly steady through today. At surface cold front approaching Interstate 69 corridor and will push east through northwest Ohio near daybreak. Occluded front beneath mature/stacked mid level system becomes west to east oriented well north of CWA later today as cooler/drier airmass gradually establishes. Temporary split flow regime as upper low continues to lift out/dampen into southeast Canada.
Tonight will be clear and cold with lows ranging from the low 20s to mid 30s.
533 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (Today through Thursday) A cold front is currently positioned over the central portions of the state this morning. The front is finally feeling the H5 trough upstream now helping move the band of convection along and ahead of the front downstream.