Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With 45-55 knot westerly flow atop a modest south-southwesterly low-level jet (which should steadily strengthen to 35-45 knots later this evening), vertical wind shear will remain favorable for the development of supercell storm structures and low-level mesocyclones. At this point, the risk for tornadoes appears to be greatest across our northwest AL counties, where dewpoints in the lower 70s are supporting locally higher MUCAPE (up to 1500-2000 J/kg) and recently issued Tornado Watch 337 is in effect until 2 AM CDT.
Deepening of a trough over the Northwest will result in stronger winds for today: wind gusts by the afternoon are expected to hit 40-50 mph for much of northern Arizona, hence the wind advisory for today. Once we get past Tuesday, the trough will have weaken enough that winds and subsequent fire weather concerns will be past.
1034 PM PDT Sun Jun 18 2023 West to northwest winds increase into Monday with cooler temperatures arriving tonight. (Tonight through Monday) Deep upper level troughing for mid-late June is arriving tonight with 850 mb temperatures near 13 Celsius this evening per 00z Oakland upper air sounding data.
early morning GOES 16 night fog channel and latest observations show some patchy dense fog developing mainly west of the Highway 218 corridor in Iowa. The lowest reported vsbys so far have been a half mile at the Vinton and Fairfield airports. Speaking of rainfall, totals over a quarter of an inch were common along and west of the Highway 218 corridor in Iowa and in a line from Macomb to the western end of the Quad Cities. The highest amounts of liquid gold (i. upper low rotating over the Ohio river valley will keep a light easterly low level flow over the region, with decreasing cloud cover.
In the upper levels, a cutoff low resulting from an incoming trough out of the west will stick around the southeast through the first half of the week. Models are in better agreement with this low stalling out across the eastern half of Tennessee and northern Georgia.
346 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 High pressure aloft will build from the southern and central Plains today up into southeast Canada by Tuesday, as an upper low wobbles south of the Quad State.
1036 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 The main concerns for the next few days will be the heat, then mid week into the weekend will be a battle between an upper level ridge near and east of the area and a developing trough over the Rockies. Even with this extreme heat thunderstorms are not expected as the enhanced mixing drier out the low to mid levels and areas east of the extreme mixing a stronger capping inversion holds. Monday night into Tuesday will see the upper level ridge build across the plains with strong southerly flow.
1050 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 (This evening through Monday) As the upper ridge establishes itself, sunny skies and warmer temperatures will dominate the forecast.
An upper low over the midwest is progged to cut off and migrate south today as a Rex block begins to form.
Thunderstorms tried to make it to the island chain overnight but petered out a few miles from the island, but stratiform showers affected portions of the Lower and Middle Keys. However, model guidance continues to indicate that an active low-level and an upper-level jet and high moisture content pooling from western Caribbean waters above the 99th percentile, as well as vorticity rounding the base of the trough, will promote above-average rain and thunderstorm chances for the island chain and near-shore and offshore waters. However, the forecast needs more certainty due to several synoptic features, and the high pressure systems, and the possible Rex Block, and how much rich tropical moisture from the western Caribbean advects into the local area.
However, strong winds will peak today as a deep area of low pressure settles over the Pacific Northwest. This low will keep temperatures below normal through the week. All this is being driven by an unseasonably deep, cold trough over the PacNW, while the cold front will be draped across central Nevada and southeast California. Winds will slowly diminish overnight into Tuesday as support weakens as the cold front moves east into Utah/Arizona. Highs should be about 4-8 degrees cooler today, followed by another 3-6 degree dip on Tuesday.
Otherwise it's likely to be dry tomorrow as this low should push east before another round of convection can erupt east of our forecast area tomorrow. Byrd By Tuesday, an upper level ridge begins to build in over the central part of the country. Otherwise with the strong upper level ridge over the central part of the country, expect dry and warmer weather through the rest of the work week. Byrd Some clouds have lingered across Illinois and into the St Louis metro as low pressure moves east.
116 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 An upper trough/low pressure will dig southeast into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys tonight and Monday. Jet streaks/shear axis will rotate around this low enhancing upper forcing and isentropic lift. Discussion: An upper trough and low moving towards TN from the OH River Valley will increase rain chances beginning overnight tonight, through the short term period. Gusty winds around 20-25kts are possible in the higher terrain of the East TN Mtns, and Cumberland Plateau as the low meanders over our region.
Meanwhile, upper level trough slowly travels south and associated front stalls over north Florida over the next few days. Area of high pressure to the south along with a stalled frontal boundary to the north will continue to bring periods of unsettled weather conditions through the period. The same weather pattern remains in place with area of high pressure to the south and a stalled frontal boundary to the north.
147 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 High pressure parks over New England later today and remains there most of the week.
A H500 ridge will continue to slowly build into the southern and central High Plains. With two UL trough in close proximity to both ocean coastlines, the aforementioned H500 ridge should be quasi- stationary throughout the short term forecast period. High temperatures today will range from the lower 90s in the NW to the 100-103 degree range for portions of the south central and SE TX Panhandle.
(Today) Clear and quiet conditions are expected for most of the area tonight with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
301 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Over the next couple of days a mid level ridge axis will amplify/expand across the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes region in response to long wave troughing diving across the western US. A blocked pattern will emerge which will cause the upper low now centered over the Lower Ohio Valley to slowly sink southward across the Lower Tennessee Valley into the deep south by mid week. While high clouds will be rather extensive across Se Mi today, they will dissipate on Tuesday as the building mid level ridge exerts more influence across the region.
330 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Moisture slowly increases across the area, especially as an upper low cuts off and spins to our west through midweek. with trough digging into the PAC NW and a cutoff developing over the SE and a sharp ridge in between. The cutoff will develop a surface reflection over TN/KY, a warm front extending to its southeast. Surface warm front approaches tonight but does stall just south of the area. At the surface a coastal trough will develop and be in place seemingly a feature for intervals of weak isentropic lift. seemingly taking a back seat to the moisture will see smaller diurnal variation with highs mainly in the lower 80s or so and lows within a degree or two of 70. The closed low lifts and more of a shallow trough remains to the west.
1234 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) A weak cold front slid through the Permian Basin early this morning. While this helped keep temperatures cooler, a westerly wind and ample sunshine this afternoon will erase the cooler weather. Temperatures are expected to top out above 100 for most locations outside the higher elevations and far northern Permian Basin for Father's Day. Unfortunately, the mid-level ridge continues to build heading into the coming week. All but the highest of elevations climb into the 100s. Temperatures Monday night will be warmer than tonight with temperatures struggling to fall to the mid 70s for many locations.
With mid level ridging anchoring over our western areas today and 850 temps topping 30C west, expect temps to be a few degrees warmer today than they were yesterday.
Expect this activity to increase some this afternoon, mainly from daytime heating and the approach of the midlevel trough and a weak cold front. The cold front will also impact the remainder of the state this afternoon, with strong winds expected to continue ramping up. Light winds and some mid level clouds overnight due to a mid level trough to the west advecting moisture across the CWA. Winds will remain elevated 15-25kts through the end of the period but expect them to diminish into the next cycle run as the cold front pushes through and gradient weakens in its wake.
Meanwhile, with the tight pressure gradient across the area between the low to the west and the building ridge across the southern Plains states, it will be another windy day East of the Divide. The low will move into southern Canada on Tuesday and drag the front across the area. Temperatures will cool as well, averaging about 10 degrees cooler than Monday across areas East of the Divide. We will again be trapped between two systems, a low to the west and a ridge across the southern plains that will eventually retrograde towards the desert southwest. With the state near the top of the ridge and close to the jet, there will be a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.
149 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Key messages: - Hot and dry weather today and most of tomorrow with elevated fire weather conditions possible - Showers and thunderstorms develop tomorrow with marginal severe threat - A more active weather pattern through the end of the week will bring chances for heavy rain to the region Current upper air analysis and water vapor imagery depict broad trough over the Pacific Northwest. Amplifying upper level ridge over the central CONUS and strong WAA at the sfc will contribute to a hot and dry day across the CWA today. The low shear will prevent updrafts from being too persistent, however the steep lapse rates and high CAPE will lend to storms capable of damaging winds and scattered large hail.
Lows overnight will generally be in the 50s, although some upper 40s are possible the high terrain. With the main upper level low will be shifted eastward for the short term period, pieces of vorticity swinging around the upper level low will allow for some diurnally forced convection on both Monday and Tuesday. With temps aloft a little warmer, daytime temps should be close to normal, with highs into the 70s both days for valley areas.
Closed upper low over srn IL this morning will drift sewd into ne AL by Tue evening as upper heights build across the Great Lakes. Otherwise temperatures expected to tick higher esp new half outside cloud influences from upper low.
West to northwest winds increase into Monday with cooler temperatures arriving tonight. (Tonight through Monday) Deep upper level troughing for mid-late June is arriving tonight with 850 mb temperatures near 13 Celsius this evening per 00z Oakland upper air sounding data.
IR satellite shows cloud cover gradually clearing from west to east with the gradual southeast exit of low pressure. Drier air begins wrapping around the northern edge of the upper low today with 40-70 percent of the LREF grand ensemble members lowering dewpoints into the 50s over west-central Illinois and potentially as far west as central Missouri. Meanwhile, small fragments of vorticity rotate around the parent upper low this afternoon, over top the higher moisture and some magnitude of instability over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Highs will largely be in the 80s each day with a few locations touching the low-90s where skies remain clear.
A closed 500 mb low pressure area will move from the Mid Mississippi River Valley east into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys today. At the same time, a weakening trough will move east across Wisconsin. An upper level ridge will build across the region. High pressure will build across the area early in this period.
The 500mb ridge parked across northeast into west Texas is the culprit for the excessive heat expected to develop across the area tomorrow as subsidence increases across west central Texas.
Otherwise, look for high temperatures to peak in the low to mid 80s.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Upper ridge centered over Nrn Mexico extends north across TX and NM producing unseasonably hot wx for the region. An upper trough along the West Coast tries to lift NE but will have little effect on the area as the ridge remains entrenched and if anything actually strengthens over the region Tuesday.
1024 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Upper ridge remains in control through Monday with no precipitation expected. Temperatures will warm a few more degrees with highs on Monday in the low to mid 90s. Temperatures remain above normal given proximity to the ridge with highs in the 90s. As the upper level ridge that had been dominating the region in the first half of the week begins to break down from a trough over the western CONUS, we can expect storms to return.
Currently have very mild lows for Monday night, with readings possibly staying warmer than 70 degrees. Tuesday, we are in a southerly flow aloft with high pressure to our northeast over MN and WI and a low over ID and southern Alberta. The low will continue to circulate and push northeast, compressing the pressure gradient as the high over WI moves very slowly into Ontario.
as this blocking pattern continues. Most of the week will see building temperatures as a theta-e ridge sets up overhead before some headway to the east is made by a trough over the western US. Luckily, muggier air will be around keeping MinRH's from bottoming out and thus fire weather shouldn't be too big of a concern from the low RH standpoint.
A cold upper trough is impacting the Pacific Northwest, bringing even cooler temperatures, as well as rain, mountain snow, and isolated thunderstorm chances through Tuesday.
Warmer and mostly dry conditions next work week. Overnight lows look to drop into the low 60s.
(Today and tonight) Building ridge begins to assert its dominance across the southern Plains today as heights rise rather quickly today as 595 dam ridge builds northward.
We'll see high clouds arrive tonight ahead of the arriving upper low and this will help keep stronger radiational cooling at bay. Moisture advection begins to come in on the northeast side of the upper low to our south on Tuesday as the ridge axis begins edging into our west. However, if it doesn't get as moist with dew points reaching into the low mid 60s, we could have problems convecting.
241 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Upper low over the Pacific northwest will be the main weather features impacting northeast Montana through the week. Cold front has moved into North Dakota this morning, with most of the overnight shower activity ended, except right along the state line. Similar situation expected for Tuesday, although with front shifting eastward, cooler and slightly drier airmass will limit instability and convection for more isolated showers except in the far southeast. The remainder to the week will see the Pacific Northwest upper low elongate and split although remain over the west. Open trof will slowly move from western to central Canada, while closed low over California will lift through the Great Basin.
A mid-level low continues to shift towards the southeast CONUS and eventually will get blocked between two ridges in the Gulf of Mexico and the Western Atlantic by Tuesday. This is expected to create S/SW flow over the next couple of days in the low levels/surface along with a general WNW/NW flow in the upper levels. The low level flow direction will keep abundant boundary layer moisture and the hot and humid temperatures in place. However, still would expect some variety of showers and thunderstorms to develop given the convective parameter values and the presence of the upper level low. Temperatures will be near 90 or in the low 90s still for the next couple days.
Given rainfall of the past 24 hours there is at least some potential for fog to develop in a few cooler valley locations.
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis showed an upper level low moving east across southern Illinois. A blocking pattern persisted across the US with upper lows across the northwest US and northeast US. A ridge continued to develop across New Mexico and Texas. This ridge will expand north over the next few days. Today and Tonight: Mid level height rises will occur today as the departing low slides further east and the ridge to the west expands north. Mid to late week: Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the blocking pattern will persist this week with mid level ridging across the central US.
1230 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat in store again for Monday with Excessive Heat Warning for inland areas and Heat Advisory for coastal region - All-time record high expected at Laredo Monday with record high at Corpus Christi - Moderate risk of rip currents will continue into Monday The mid level ridge will build over south Texas on Monday.
1100 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 A few showers and storms will affect southeast IL on Monday, however rest of the week looks quite warm and dry as another blocking pattern takes shape over the United States.
235 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Short Term/Marine A developing rex block will mean dry weather through Tuesday as the upper high moves across the Great Lakes. No precip is expected through Tuesday although there will be a slight increase in moisture as the upper low begins to move north.
1153 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 VFR under mixed coverage of high clouds continues late tonight with light easterly wind supplied by high pressure from Quebec back into the central Great Lakes. High pressure, at the surface and aloft, will maintain very dry conditions into the early to mid week period.
(Today through Tuesday Night) Dangerous heat should continue through the first half of this week as an Upper level ridge remains positioned over the Southern Plains/Mexico. 500mb heights within the midlevel ridge should remain around 594-596 dam through Tuesday night. 850mb temperatures are still expected to range between 22-28C during this time frame, with southwesterly flow present in the lower levels. Dewpoints are largely expected to remain in the mid 70s to lower 80s, though afternoon mixing could bring them into the lower 70s.
A mid level ridge was building into the Plains early this morning with a mid level low over the western states. Mostly clear skies prevailed with only some high cirrus clouds spilling over the ridge and into far northern Kansas. The ridge builds across the Plains into the Great Lakes for much of the week.
(Today and tonight) The upper ridge builds over central Mexico today with westerly flow aloft.
Looking upstream, a large cyclone is spinning over the Pacific Northwest while a mid-level ridge is building northeast across the central Plains. Convective allowing models continue to spit out spotty showers over north-central WI at times today with the highest coverage during the afternoon. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Low level temps are very similar to today's readings, but with more sunshine, temps will be a few degrees warmer over central to north-central WI. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s away from Lake Michigan.
Temperatures will soar into the 90s to around 100 degrees this afternoon on southwest flow aloft and southerly winds at the sfc ahead of weak low pressure on the lee side of the Rockies. Warm and dry air will all be drawn up under a building upper ridge.
402 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2023 A ridge of high pressure will bring warm, dry and stable conditions to the region.
An upper level low pressure system will move from the lower Ohio River Valley to Alabama and Georgia through midweek. High temperatures through midweek will range from the lower 80s near the Tennessee River to around 90 degrees over east central Arkansas and northwest Mississippi.
High pressure aloft will build from the southern and central Plains today up into southeast Canada by Tuesday, as an upper low wobbles south of the Quad State.
614 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night) Dangerous heat should continue through the first half of this week as an Upper level ridge remains positioned over the Southern Plains/Mexico. 500mb heights within the midlevel ridge should remain around 594-596 dam through Tuesday night. 850mb temperatures are still expected to range between 22-28C during this time frame, with southwesterly flow present in the lower levels. Dewpoints are largely expected to remain in the mid 70s to lower 80s, though afternoon mixing could bring them into the lower 70s.
Meanwhile, upper level trough slowly travels south and associated front stalls over north Florida over the next few days.
The Northern Rockies will remain under a cold trough and today will be another breezy day. With highs remaining mid 30s to mid 50s in the higher terrain of Lemhi County and southwest Montana, plan accordingly for wet and raw backcountry conditions. Following Tuesday, the cold trough responsible for the weather will consolidate further west, leading to a period of warming.
Cooler temperatures as well for the beginning of summer, but gradually return to normal for the end of the week. An upper level low over the Pacific Northwest continues to bring northeasterly moisture flow and strong upper level southwesterly winds across the CWA today resulting in unsettled weather conditions at the surface for today and tomorrow as it continues to linger over our region through Tuesday. Snow amounts have significantly decreased across our higher elevations for tomorrow into tomorrow night as temperatures have slightly increased in elevations below 6,700 feet to be just above freezing. Temperatures above 6,700 feet are still forecasted to be below freezing and snowfall amounts are now between 1 inch and 2.
The PADEP has issued an Air Quality Alert for the Lower Susquehanna Valley region. This is due to a combination leftover smoke in the lower atmosphere, a recirculating airmass, and high temps in the mid/upper 80s which will bring max ozone concentrations into the code orange range. Increasing low level moisture and lingering, positive tilt troughing aloft could yield isolated-widely scattered diurnal convection again on Tuesday, but ensemble plumes indicate most locations remain dry. An increasing E/SE LLVL flow and vertical mixing of mean/ensemble 850mb temps in the 13-15C range supports highs Tuesday in the mid 70s (higher terrain of the North and West) to the low 80s in the Central and Southern Valleys.
611 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 (Today and tonight) Building ridge begins to assert its dominance across the southern Plains today as heights rise rather quickly today as 595 dam ridge builds northward.
719 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Weak surface and upper level ridging will slide east across the region today, bringing fair, warm weather and a light southeasterly breeze. A few afternoon showers or thunderstorms will be possible across the southwest part of the state later this afternoon and evening, and along a weak surface cold front that will be across the Northern Mountains Tuesday afternoon.