Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The flow pattern aloft will basically be messy and disorganized within a general cold low pressure trough and a few embedded disturbances of little to no impact. Even though some clearing skies are evident from satellite imagery today over Phillips and Petroleum Counties, enough cloud cover remains through tonight to trend toward no freezing fog expected. With the broad colder low pressure trough over the region, it will continue to be difficult to raise temperatures.
The low stratus is widespread across sw IA, MO and into central IL and is trying to make progress northward. Tonight: Forecast soundings do show the low levels moistening up Which should lead to low stratus and patchy fog, due to the persistent southwest flow aloft.
The core of this trough will lift north along the NE FL coast this period. Mainly coastal showers are expected with this trough.
This low level southwest flow will advect moisture and warm air into the area today through tomorrow.
227 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 High pressure will move offshore allowing a weak coastal trough to develop tonight and Wednesday.
236 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Dry high pressure moves east and off the Carolina coast tonight and Wednesday as a warm front crosses Tennessee bringing small shower chances to the mountains and foothills on Wednesday.
Key Messages: 1) A fast-moving upper low will bring moderate to heavy snow to the area this afternoon through the early overnight hours. An upper low will traverse the region late this afternoon and evening, bringing moderate to heavy snowfall. By midday, expected mostly cloudy skies and temperatures holding in the 20s for most areas, and in the low 30s for northwest Minnesota.
210 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 High pressure will move east of the region today, with a mid level disturbance moving eastward into the area tonight, bringing a chance of rain.
Meanwhile, zonal flow aloft will also persist through tonight, followed by upper ridging building over the northern Gulf and Deep South throughout the day Wednesday.
but now in a way that keeps us warm but dry as the ridge shifts east. Broad zonal flow aloft will begin to yield to mid level ridging which builds across Florida toward the tail end of the short term.
1133 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Mid Atlantic region through the SE U.
With enhanced southwesterly flow across the area tomorrow we should see ample heating south of the warn front, approaching the low 80s across portions of south central KS. Another subtle wave will move across the region ahead of the more broad desert southwest trough.
Will continue to carry low POPs (~20%) today with the higher/better chances likely west of I-45 through this afternoon. But, it does look like the warmer more humid air mass will remain in place across SE TX as onshore winds (and clouds) persist. Temperatures today are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s for the CWA.
While we experience mostly clear skies with seasonable temperatures, a trough of low pressure will begin to dig down the coast of British Columbia on Wednesday afternoon.
213 PM MDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Current upper air analysis shows upper low centered over WY this afternoon, with southwest flow aloft our region. Temps may rise into the 40s for areas south of I-90, where dry slotting sets in and southwest winds allow for some warmer air.
An upper low over northeastern Wyoming will continue to trek northeastward into southeastern North Dakota this evening. The upper low that brought weather through the short term will exit the midwest Wednesday night.
There'll be a bit of a lull in precipitation tomorrow before low pressure approaches along a baroclinic zone over the Corn Belt Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Lift over the baroclinic zone will cause precipitation to blossom ahead of the low, starting as mostly rain Wednesday evening. While a bit of freezing rain can't be completely ruled out, accumulations appear minimal as of now with ground temps being warmed by highs in the 50s leading into the period of precip.
Low clouds and possibly some drizzle tonight as a warm front lifts through the area. Overall qpf amounts after this first ongoing batch of rain exits will be on the low side over our CWA. Temperatures tonight will have a wide range from the upper 30s in some valleys over the eastern CWA, to the low 50s in the west behind the warm front. The upper pattern will become more amplified on Wednesday as the trough digs over the southwest U. Some low end shower/thunderstorm chances will continue into Wednesday, but should lift north of the area with the warm front by the end of the day. A wave of low pressure developing along the front is expected to shift east along the slowly southward moving front which should remain north of the area on Wednesday night.
A weak upper ridge will provide most of the area with dry conditions today.
209 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 High pressure over the area has led to a pretty typical late-March day across the region, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Of course, it will be a few degrees "cooler" at the coast, but interior locations can expect lower to mid 90s for highs.
1149 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Dry high pressure moves east and off the Carolina coast tonight and Wednesday as a warm front crosses Tennessee bringing small shower chances to the mountains and foothills on Wednesday.
318 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 High pressure at the surface will be forced offshore through Wednesday.
A warm frontal boundary will approach from the south and expect snow to move south to north overnight tonight into Wednesday.
(Through Wednesday) Zonal flow aloft will give away to upper level ridging across the Southeast tomorrow in response to a trough digging into the west.
Lows tonight should be fairly close to today's daytime highs as temps are expected to rise thru the night, so if highs don't climb to forecast, the lows will be off as well.
1123 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Mid Atlantic region through the SE U.
This will inhibit radiational cooling overnight, keeping temperatures above freezing. Overnight, a warm front swinging across the ArkLaMiss Delta will increase rain chances along the Highway 82 corridor. Highs should be warmer, reaching the upper 70s to near 80. Temperatures will start to recover rapidly from the cold weather we've seen over the last few days on Wednesday thanks to ridging aloft increasing warm southerly winds into our region.
The stratocu deck that built up over the Lower Keys this morning melted away as time progressed into the afternoon leaving partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions in its wake. Current temperatures along the island chain range from the mid to upper 70s, a little bit warmer than yesterday. This morning's 12z soundings show heights rising across Florida indicating ridging taking hold over our sensible weather pattern. High pressure currently straddling the east coast of the United States will be the main factor influencing the short term forecast. The high will march out into the western north Atlantic tonight and into Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens.
Satellite imagery shows an impressive closed low centered off of San Francisco, spinning around a very tight circulation in the center. Cool and unsettled weather will linger Wednesday as the low drifts into central California.
Warmer weather will arrive on Wednesday as highs climb well into the 50s. Showers could continue through the day Wednesday, but thunderstorm activity looks minimal during the afternoon with stronger instability developing to the southwest behind the warm front. Highs Wednesday should peak in the early evening behind the warm front, reaching lower 60s in the south, but likely remaining in the 50s for northern portions of the forecast area.
746 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 High pressure will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight and Wednesday.
Have bumped POPs up north of I-4 to a whopping 8 to 10% to account for the low probability of s sprinkle. High pressure over the region shifts eastward for the next few days, with winds over the waters out of the southeast each day except for a turn onshore with the sea breeze.
Temps were mainly in the lower and middle 30s across northern WI, with mid/upper 30s to around 40 in central WI, the Fox Valley and far east central WI. A wintry mix of rain, snow, and possibly some freezing rain is expected from central WI into far northeast WI. Warm nose aloft not very pronounced or deep, so freezing rain being a significant threat looks to be on the low side. With the warm front lifting north through the night, the snow/mixed precip looks to end as some lighter rain or drizzle Wednesday morning. Temps will bottom out this evening, mainly in the mid to upper 20s north to the low-mid 30s south, then remain steady or slowly climb tonight.
453 PM MDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Current upper air analysis shows upper low centered over WY this afternoon, with southwest flow aloft our region. Temps may rise into the 40s for areas south of I-90, where dry slotting sets in and southwest winds allow for some warmer air.
It will also usher in much cooler temperatures Wednesday into the weekend.
717 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 (Through Wednesday) Zonal flow aloft will give away to upper level ridging across the Southeast tomorrow in response to a trough digging into the west.
Some rain chances will persist across mainly the Highway 82 corridor overnight, as another area of ascent traverses the Mid-South region in zonal flow aloft. Lows will be warmer tonight, compared to the past few nights, as they range from the upper 50s west of the Mississippi River to the upper 40s across East Mississippi. This will inhibit radiational cooling overnight, keeping temperatures above freezing. Overnight, a warm front swinging across the ArkLaMiss Delta will increase rain chances along the Highway 82 corridor. Highs should be warmer, reaching the upper 70s to near 80. Temperatures will start to recover rapidly from the cold weather we've seen over the last few days on Wednesday thanks to ridging aloft increasing warm southerly winds into our region.
Local fog tool showing that freezing fog should develop after midnight over Phillips and Valley counties. The flow pattern aloft will basically be messy and disorganized within a general cold low pressure trough and a few embedded disturbances of little to no impact. Even though some clearing skies are evident from satellite imagery today over Phillips and Petroleum Counties, enough cloud cover remains through tonight to trend toward no freezing fog expected. With the broad colder low pressure trough over the region, it will continue to be difficult to raise temperatures.
There will be some lift at times within this low level moisture because of the low level jet.
942 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Dry high pressure moves east and off the Carolina coast tonight and Wednesday as a warm front crosses Tennessee bringing small shower chances to the mountains and foothills on Wednesday.
1019 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 High pressure will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight and Wednesday.
Otherwise a few coastal showers will graze the coastal counties with a mild night expected in the 50s to near 60 at the coast will warm Wednesday into the low 80s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast as partly cloudy skies are left in the wake of the inverted coastal trough pulling off to the NE of the region Wednesday with light southerly winds and an Atlantic seabreeze working inland in the afternoon towards highway 301.
High pressure will be the norm for the short term with pleasant weather prevailing and generally light to moderate E/SE flow.
Used hi-res blended guidance to update temperatures/overnight lows, which will end up some 5 to 10 degrees warmer than climatology.
735 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 High pressure will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight and Wednesday.
916 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Conditions are slowly beginning to improve across the northern and eastern of the CWA, but will leave the Winter Weather Advisory in place for now to account for some precipitation, a mix of light snow and freezing drizzle, still possible for a few more hours. Otherwise, snow has been light to moderate across central SD ahead of the main upper low. Will leave headlines alone for now, but if these stronger winds do materialize the winter weather advisory may need to be either extended in the Sisseton Hills and/or expanded farther south along the ridge line.
731 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Dry high pressure moves east and off the Carolina coast tonight and Wednesday as a warm front crosses Tennessee bringing small shower chances to the mountains and foothills on Wednesday.
420 PM MDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Local fog tool showing that freezing fog should develop after midnight over Phillips and Valley counties. The flow pattern aloft will basically be messy and disorganized within a general cold low pressure trough and a few embedded disturbances of little to no impact. Even though some clearing skies are evident from satellite imagery today over Phillips and Petroleum Counties, enough cloud cover remains through tonight to trend toward no freezing fog expected. With the broad colder low pressure trough over the region, it will continue to be difficult to raise temperatures.
526 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 High pressure at the surface will be forced offshore through Wednesday.
Currently - A robust high cell emerging off the Atlantic coast trails a ridge southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 70s with dew points in the mid 60s. However, the trailing ridge axis will remain anchored across the southeasterly United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Expect overnight lows in the lower 70s with dew points remaining in the mid 60s. A ridge across the southeastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico will result in moderate to fresh northeast to easterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
Overnight lows near climo and in the M-U50s, except some L50s for normally cooler interior rural locations and perhaps L60s for immediate St. Mid-level ridging begins to build over the western GOMEX, and slowly tracks east-northeastward. At the surface, high pressure continues its journey seaward, dragging the ridge axis to near or just north of ECFL by late in the day.
A weak lower level wave associated with the upper level disturbance is also progressing in from the lower Ohio River Valley. Warm southerly flow keeps lows in the lower 40s. Going into Wednesday night, as low pressure approaches, expect additional precipitation chances especially focused across northern portions of the region closer to the frontal boundary.
232 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023 A weak coastal trough will impact the area today, with warmer high pressure strengthening offshore Thursday through the end of the week.
(Today through Thursday) Scattered SHRA continue to lift NE as moisture lifts north of the warm front. The warm front will lift north of AR by this afternoon. with much warmer conditions expected for this Wed afternoon. A cold front will approach the state from the north Thu afternoon.
An upper low over northeastern Wyoming will continue to trek northeastward into southeastern North Dakota this evening. The upper low that brought weather through the short term will exit the midwest Wednesday night. However, a weak upper low is forecast to move through South Dakota Thursday.
Otherwise a few coastal showers will graze the coastal counties with a mild night expected in the 50s to near 60 at the coast will warm Wednesday into the low 80s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast as partly cloudy skies are left in the wake of the inverted coastal trough pulling off to the NE of the region Wednesday with light southerly winds and an Atlantic seabreeze working inland in the afternoon towards highway 301. (Wednesday through Thursday night) High pressure will be centered to the northeast on Wednesday morning, with inverted trough over the coastal waters. As the high moves further away to the northeast Wednesday afternoon, the trough will lift northeast of the area. The high will continue to build to the northeast Wednesday night, then east Thursday into Thursday night.
1212 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023 Conditions are slowly beginning to improve across the northern and eastern of the CWA, but will leave the Winter Weather Advisory in place for now to account for some precipitation, a mix of light snow and freezing drizzle, still possible for a few more hours. Otherwise, snow has been light to moderate across central SD ahead of the main upper low. Will leave headlines alone for now, but if these stronger winds do materialize the winter weather advisory may need to be either extended in the Sisseton Hills and/or expanded farther south along the ridge line. Deterministic models now hold any accumulation to I-90 south as dry air entrainment from the high keeps any precip as virga farther north.
A low pressure system will move across Nevada tonight and into south-central Idaho Wednesday morning. Snow levels will be around 3000 feet, so the snow may be mixed with rain in the lower valleys. The winds will shift to the west and remain breezy on Wednesday as the low moves to our east. A couple of fast-moving upper troughs will bring more rounds of valley rain/snow and mountain snow showers Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Additional light snow accumulations are likely, mainly in the higher elevations. A stronger upper trough and associated cold front will bring bring more valley rain/snow and mountain snow showers for additional accumulations Thursday night.
Temperatures throughout the Island Chain were in the lower 70s with winds northeast to east between 5 to 10 mph. Also, the 00z raob showed heights rising at all levels of the atmosphere indicating the ridge building over the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula. Upper level ridging is expected to dominate the weather pattern for the next several days keeping a lid on the atmosphere resulting in near nil rain chances due to dry air aloft.
Precipitation will mainly be in the form of snow across north-central Wisconsin, rain across east-central Wisconsin and the lakeshore, and a mix of rain, snow, and possibly freezing rain from central to northeast Wisconsin. Despite the threat for freezing rain, surface temperatures should warm quickly this morning with only a brief period of freezing precipitation; therefore, the impact from the freezing rain is expected to be fairly low. Highs on Thursday are expected to range from the middle to upper 30s across north- central Wisconsin, to the lower 40s across central and northeast Wisconsin and the Fox Valley.
Forecast Discussion: Current satellite and upper air obs showing a mainly zonal flow regime from east to west across the CONUS with a deepening Pacific low pressure system spinning over central and northern California. Southerly flow is in place in the low levels and surface with moisture advection into eastern Kansas at this hour. Moisture advection continues to help low cloud bases with cooler temps over eastern areas. The Pacific trough will steadily continue to dig into the southwestern CONUS over the next few days.
345 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023 (Today through Thursday) Our weather today and tomorrow will be mainly influenced by high pressure aloft parked over the Gulf of Mexico. Tonight southerly surface flow will help to continue to moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere and as temperatures and dewpoint meet patchy dense fog will be possible across the eastern portions of the CWA late tonight into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow south to southwesterly flow both aloft and at the surface will persist allowing for much warmer and dry conditions across north and central GA.
Associated warm front is expected to lift north towards the I-70 corridor. Convective threat dwindles from north to south Thursday morning as cold front sags south. Temperatures will remain cool on Thursday with north winds drawing in cooler air.
305 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023 Key Messages: - Minor snow accumulations anticipated tonight for areas along and south of I-90 mainly limited to cooler, grassy surfaces. Temperatures remain near seasonable with above freezing conditions during the day and below freezing at night. But heading into tonight, another trough on a more southerly stream compared to this preceding system will bring a return for precipitation chances across the region. However with ground surfaces holding some residual heat into tonight with the daytime temperatures rising well above freezing, accumulations could be drastically limited to only a couple of tenths and mainly on the cooler, elevated and grassy surfaces.
-- Rain, snow, or mix likely Fri night into Sat -- A mid/upper trough emerging from the SW CONUS will spur cyclogenesis over the Southern High Plains on Thu. This may support an area of freezing rain and/or sleet across Lower MI, but the placement of these p-types and related amounts are similarly uncertain. On Thu, northerly winds will develop across the lake as high pressure builds across the Northern Plains.
Used hi-res blended guidance to update temperatures/overnight lows, which will end up some 5 to 10 degrees warmer than climatology. Stronger convergence and isentropic lift along a more well defined sfc warm front will promote heavier rains primarily over northwest PA, with lighter showers remaining possible farther south.
153 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023 High pressure will move offshore allowing a weak coastal trough to develop tonight and Wednesday.
08Z water vapor imagery showed a closed low over the CA coast with west to southwesterly flow extending through the central plains. At the surface, an inverted trough or weak warm front extended through central KS into southeast NEB. South of the boundary, some clearing and warmer air is expected to lift temps into the 70s.
A trough of low pressure will begin deepening off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, and move inland late tonight.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Current satellite shows a large upper level low near the northern California coast with a strong jet stream located over the southwestern United States.
However, there is some discrepancy among various models on where the heaviest band sets up, with the Nam/GFS perhaps 25-50 miles farther north than other models including the Highres ARW, FV3, and the Canadian model.
1038 PM MDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Current upper air analysis shows upper low centered over WY this afternoon, with southwest flow aloft our region. Temps may rise into the 40s for areas south of I-90, where dry slotting sets in and southwest winds allow for some warmer air.
1212 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Scattered to widespread showers across the northeast half of the forecast area will be on the downward trend through the evening hours as an associated upper trough migrates east of the state. Light showers/drizzle with a lot of low clouds will persist over the forecast area overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning as a warm front moves northward from the south. Wednesday will be noticeably warmer with cloudy but dry conditions on tap in the afternoon as strong high pressure builds over AR.
Subsidence provided by the ridge will also inhibit shower development both days.
There will be some lift at times within this low level moisture because of the low level jet. - Steadier rain and a few storms Wed night/Thur morning - A stronger low pressure wave on a front will bring more widespread rain Wednesday night through midday Thursday.
Upper trough currently moving through the area will keep winter-like cold over the area today. The upper trough moves to the east today. Skies will vary from clear to overcast with low clouds and patchy to areas of freezing fog. The freezing fog is expected to diminish by late morning while the low clouds will linger over parts of the region. Upper ridge moves in tonight which will bring somewhat warmer temperatures on Thursday.