Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We're on the tail end of this stretch of active weather and some drier, warmer, and breezier days are ahead. These values will drop after sunset and ahead of tonight's activity which is being ushered in as a closed low and weak associated cold front pass through central Idaho. This will drop our afternoon highs on Tuesday by a couple of degrees compared to Monday, but generally staying in the 70s at the lower elevations.
As the low slides just southwest of our CWA, a couple strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening , especially across parts of northeastern WY and southwestern SD.
1233 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Another cooler than average afternoon in store to start the new work week under mainly cloudy skies and some scattered rain showers ongoing for areas along and near the Winds and through the Bighorns. A subtle short wave is propagating down the main longwave trough extending in from the GOA. Overnight, expect the main trough to close in on the Wyoming state line sparking some widely scattered rain showers early Tuesday morning before sunrise lasting throughout much of the day. Even cooler temperatures Tuesday with the aforementioned trough.
1155 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Active pattern continues across the northern Rockies the next several days as the ridge continues to be suppressed across northern Mexico.
This activity is in assoc/w a strong upr short wave trough moving through the base of a broader long wave trough over the eastern CONUS. The synoptic drivers for the convection, including the upr wave and an associated cold front should move to our east and south tonight, but the rain-cooled air will help to stabilize the lower atmosphere by late afternoon anyway.
913 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Satellite imagery shows a weak trof dropping thru the region in a very weak NW flow aloft. By afternoon, as the trof continues to drift southward, greatest potential for diurnal thunderstorms will be across our south.
253 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 * Showers ending by evening from north to south * Patchy fog tonight The cold front, currently a little past halfway across the area, will continue to push southeast through the area this afternoon. Winds will become light with high pressure nudging into the area. Lows will be cooler and in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures will peak in the lower 80s for most areas.
1135 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 A positively-tilted trough axis is rotating through the region this morning, providing large-scale forcing for ascent from central AR into the TN Valley. This area of lift will move east this afternoon as the trough axis passes, limiting further convection. The current crop of storms are developing along and south of a cold front. A cold front will move across the Mid-South today and stall just south of the region early this week ushering in cooler temperatures.
Slightly cooler conditions will prevail across the area tonight and Tuesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible again late tonight into tomorrow afternoon.
Decent mid level warm advection is expected across the high plains this evening, with upslope flow leading to another round of showers/storms expected to develop over the high plains.
135 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Aviation As one low pressure center departs another will move south of Lower Michigan today before merging with the first low across the NE US.
A high pressure system remains over the area this morning with some higher clouds moving in from the west. While dry high pressure will dominate much of the area, we won't be able to completely rule out afternoon showers over portions of mainly south central SD today.
If there is any movement of the upper high it will be toward the east, but there really won't be any real change to this pattern.
1240 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 A positively-tilted trough axis is rotating through the region this morning, providing large-scale forcing for ascent from central AR into the TN Valley. This area of lift will move east this afternoon as the trough axis passes, limiting further convection. The current crop of storms are developing along and south of a cold front. A cold front will move across the Mid-South today and stall just south of the region early this week ushering in cooler temperatures.
Temperatures easily topped out in the lower to mid 90s across the island chain.
/Issued 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023/ /This Afternoon through Tuesday/ North Texas will primarily remain under the influence of strong ridging aloft through Tuesday, but a weak frontal boundary has drifted south of the Red River and is currently located across northern portions of the Metroplex as indicated on radar. Outside of this area where temperatures may be a touch cooler, highs elsewhere will range from 105-110 degrees.
The weather for Tuesday is generally looking good, but warmer with highs into the lower 80s.
Meanwhile, broad mid level ridging remains in place across much of the central Atlantic and stretches across Florida into portions of the Southwest US and northern Mexico.
422 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 The severe weather threat continues to diminish over the next couple of hours as the best dynamics and cold front move east of the area. Low clouds will likely fill in as a secondary mid-level trough axis moves through the region. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected for Tuesday night with lows in the lower 60s. The large scale pattern in the extended will feature a large trough of low pressure moving out of the central Plains and across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to start things off.
1237 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Low pressure will exit the region today with lingering scattered showers through midday.
For the rest of the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain in central Montana, but generally expect to remain sub-severe and moving to the southeast.
1140 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023 A few more cooler than average days are expected across the region, with opportunities for primarily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continuing.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) The upper level high pressure system, with west-east oriented axis from the US/Mexico border to the northern/central Gulf of Mexico, is expected to persist during the period. The upper ridge combined with NAM Skew-T moisture profiles/below normal PWAT values should preclude precipitation.
The high pressure system that was over the area will push more south as well.
Besides maybe some river valley fog, will bank on enough west-northwest sfc wind maintenance of 3-7 KTs in broad plains ridge pressure gradient to limit much of any fog production. The deep mixing also to help afternoon temps hit the low to mid 80s in most areas, unless an area stays more cloud-cloaked and could be held in the upper 70s.
1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 (Today through Tuesday) 500mb heights are expected to be slightly greater across the region today compared to yesterday, which is expected to contribute to slightly warmer and drier conditions.
A northwest upper level flow pattern will remain in place through the short term, with an upper level low spinning across northern MB/ON for much of the period. This upper level system will slowly wobble eastward dropping a cold front through the forecast area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Some potential for the main area of showers/storms to be situated closer to the main upper low further to the east/northeast, so stuck with pops in the high chance (40-50%) for the majority of the forecast area. Did match up to neighbors into the low likely (60%) category for the far northwest with that secondary wave approaching the area during peak diurnal heating.
Ridging is expected to build back into the area this weekend, inducing a return of hot temperatures for this weekend. Tuesday morning shows an upper level trough moving into Pacific northwest which will keep lowered heights over the area this week.
Clouds are on the increase this morning in advance of an upper trough and accompanying cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across SE Oregon and w-central Idaho advancing into the lower Snake Plain and SE Oregon this evening and into s-central Idaho after sunset.
In southeast TN more sun came through earlier in the day to help destabilize and mix the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Dangerous heat and critically Dry conditions across All of Robust high pressure will remain steadfast across much of the region, and will keep dangerously hot and dry conditions in the forecast into Tuesday and likely beyond.
At the same time, the cold front that moved through yesterday will begin to lift back to the north as a warm front. Isentropic ascent with the retreating warm front will also provide ascent. All 3 mechanisms will result in widespread convection tonight with the highest probabilities in a northwest to southeast band across north central, central, and east-central Oklahoma from ~06 to 12Z.
By next Monday, low elevation high temperatures reach as high as the low-90s. A trof slides east southeastward across the region, with most of the associated energy remaining across southern Montana.
(This evening through Tuesday night) In short, the record/near record heat continues across the region as a strong 595dam ridge continues to reside from southern Texas eastward over the Gulf of Mexico into western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Being on the norther periphery of this high is keeping a more zonal/progressive flow ongoing just to our north with embedded H5 impulses helping develop several MCSs across the mid south and Tennessee River Valley. Overall, the ridge and compression should keep things on the dry side within the column and another hot day across the region.
336 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 A cold front will push southeast through the remainder of our region this evening.
Outflow and cloud debris from previous convection have pushed into AR, parts of northeast LA, north MS, and the MS Delta, limiting insolation in those areas and reinforcing a weak cold front that has slipped southward into our region.
1234 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Mid-level ridging will remain in place through the period. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
300 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 (Issued 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023) Tonight and Tuesday: A weak trough drops southeast across the area overnight and may allow for a few isolated showers up near the Dells. Tuesday will feature a warmer day, with the development of high- based cumulus during the afternoon hours.
915 AM PDT Mon Aug 7 2023 A developing trough over the eastern Pacific will bring gradual cooling across the state this week.
146 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Warm and humid conditions continuing today as mid level ridging remains in control across the region. Models are showing a shift in the current pattern by the weekend as the ridge axis lifts north and we return to a more easterly flow. No major threat of marine hazards through the week as the ridge axis remains to the south and the flow continues to be from the S/SW.
(Tonight) Early day convection has largely waned across far SE OK with focus turning to renewed storms developing across the High Plains.
103 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 (Today and tonight) Looks like another day of dangerous heat across much of the area with a strong upper level high over the area and an intense low level thermal ridge over the western part of the area. However a weak cold front may make it a few degrees cooler across the northern Big Country(highs 101 to 103), but increasing low level moisture will make heat index values close to 110.
(Rest of Today) A deepening mid/upper-level trough (currently centered across the Lower Great Lakes) will advance slowly northeastward over the course of the day, assuming a neutral tilt with time. In response to this, a related surface cyclone will shift slowly eastward across southern portions of Ontario/Quebec, with the low's trailing cold front currently extending southwestward into the I-70 corridor of KS/MO. Clusters of thunderstorms have already initiated in the vicinity of a prefrontal streamline confluence axis (well ahead of the cold front), with this activity currently approaching the northwest portion of the CWFA. Although the most prominent threats from the storms will be damaging winds in the 60-70 MPH range, large hail, and heavy rainfall/flooding, a west-southwesterly low-level jet of 35-40 knots and sufficient vertical veering in the boundary layer will enhance the potential for mesocyclone/tornado development, as well.
706 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 (This evening through Tuesday night) In short, the record/near record heat continues across the region as a strong 595dam ridge continues to reside from southern Texas eastward over the Gulf of Mexico into western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Being on the norther periphery of this high is keeping a more zonal/progressive flow ongoing just to our north with embedded H5 impulses helping develop several MCSs across the mid south and Tennessee River Valley. Overall, the ridge and compression should keep things on the dry side within the column and another hot day across the region.
253 PM PDT Mon Aug 7 2023 A developing trough over the eastern Pacific will bring gradual cooling across the state this week. The strong east-west ridge along 30N Latitude will weaken over the next several days, allowing a weak trough to develop along the CA Coast. This trough will draw the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Eugene NE, and eventually across SoCal later this week. The extra clouds and moisture will make for cooler days, but warmer and more humid nights.
With the upglide atop the higher terrain, there will be around a 20-30% chance for showers and perhaps an embedded storm.
1005 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 A cold front will push southeast through the remainder of our region this evening.
CMiller (Issued 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023) Tonight and Tuesday: A weak trough drops southeast across the area overnight and may allow for a few isolated showers up near the Dells. Tuesday will feature a warmer day, with the development of high- based cumulus during the afternoon hours.
Florida currently resides beneath a very impressive ridge of high pressure. Combine the compressional/warming effects of the ridge and all of this humidity, and we are feeling some rather unusual heat index readings this week.
657 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The upper level high pressure system, with west-east oriented axis from the US/Mexico border to the northern/central Gulf of Mexico, is expected to persist during the period. The upper ridge combined with NAM Skew-T moisture profiles/below normal PWAT values should preclude precipitation.
829 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 A cold front will approach the area from the west this evening, resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be severe. Cooler, drier air pushes into the region post-frontal Tuesday on breezy NW winds. Highs will be in the 80s inland and the low 90s across the SE coast.
A cold front is slowly sinking southward tonight, and where it ends up tomorrow, will determine where storms develop.
Ridging over the region continues to dominate our weather in numerous ways. The most noticeable is the high temperatures and elevated heat index values across the state. Temperatures this evening remain in the lower 90s for many. The ridging is also playing a part in our limited rain chances as the subsidence continues to inhibit any substantial shower and thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, broad mid level ridging remains in place across much of the central Atlantic and stretches across Florida into portions of the Southwest US and northern Mexico.
* Showers ending by evening from north to south * Patchy fog tonight The cold front, currently a little past halfway across the area, will continue to push southeast through the area this afternoon. Winds will become light with high pressure nudging into the area. Lows will be cooler and in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures will peak in the lower 80s for most areas.
749 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 A cold front will continue to track through western Pennsylvania late this evening. A cold front is current positioned west of Pittsburgh and will continue to track east slowly. Winds along the ridges of Tucker county will likely increase after 4am due to a mountain wave in the wake of the front. Tuesday may start out with a few showers in moist northwest flow, particularly for northwest Pennsylvania and the ridges.
916 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 A cold front is starting to push out of our area. The cold front will be to our south tomorrow and that will keep the shower and thunderstorm chances out of our area.
A strong cold front (for this time of year) passed through eastern Oregon late today and western Idaho early this evening with showers and thunderstorms. Outflow winds from the incoming thunderstorms defined the cold front, with peak gusts around 50 mph.
638 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Cold front crosses tonight.
Expect a short-term cooling occurs for mid-week before a return to much warmer temperatures by the weekend. Taking a look at HREF and NBM, along with EFI consistently pointing toward breezy conditions for this afternoon/evening, probabilities for stronger breezes on the ridges are evident. Even some ridges in Trinity County showing probabilities of 30 mph or more wind gusts peaking in the 50 to 60 percent range toward 8 PM this evening.
828 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Cold front crosses tonight.
626 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 (Tonight) Early day convection has largely waned across far SE OK with focus turning to renewed storms developing across the High Plains.
750 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 A cold front will push southeast through the remainder of our region this evening.
528 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Another cooler than average afternoon in store to start the new work week under mainly cloudy skies and some scattered rain showers ongoing for areas along and near the Winds and through the Bighorns. A subtle short wave is propagating down the main longwave trough extending in from the Gulf of Alaska. Overnight, expect the main trough to close in on the Wyoming state line sparking some widely scattered rain showers early Tuesday morning before sunrise lasting throughout much of the day. Even cooler temperatures Tuesday with the aforementioned trough.
That said, this evenings sounding did show that residual dry layer still remain in the lowest one thousand feet as well as above 800 mb. High pressure centered over the central North Atlantic extending westward across the Florida Peninsula will support gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters for the next several days.
Besides maybe some river valley fog, will bank on enough west-northwest sfc wind maintenance of 3-7 KTs in broad plains ridge pressure gradient to limit much of any fog production. The deep mixing also to help afternoon temps hit the low to mid 80s in most areas, unless an area stays more cloud-cloaked and could be held in the upper 70s. The best chances for rain are south of I-80 with the highest pops along and south of an Ottumwa, IA to Galesburg, IL line.
Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper low that was responsible for the widespread shower and thunderstorm activity today beginning to shift to the east of the region.
1233 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The upper level high pressure system, with west-east oriented axis from the US/Mexico border to the northern/central Gulf of Mexico, is expected to persist during the period. The upper ridge combined with NAM Skew-T moisture profiles/below normal PWAT values should preclude precipitation.
In general the forecast area remains in an active pattern under general northwest flow aloft coupled with stronger low pressure north of the Great Lakes.
Highs are topping out in the lower 80s though the I-64 corridor in Southern Illinois is still in the low to mid 70s at this time. High pressure and calm winds overnight should allow for patchy fog development. Afterwards, dry weather is expected for the day tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 80s and mostly clear skies. Plenty of shear is expected, leaving the weaker ingredient instability with CAPE values less impressive as highs are in the low to mid-80s. Northwesterly flow is expected for late week into the weekend as a ridge builds to the southwest in Texas.
Discussion: Somewhat drier air will be filtering in behind the exiting cold front.
327 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A warm front continues to move north of the area tonight, followed a cold front for Tuesday.
Outflow and cloud debris from previous convection have pushed into AR, parts of northeast LA, north MS, and the MS Delta, limiting insolation in those areas and reinforcing a weak cold front that has slipped southward into our region. /DL/ Mid/upper level ridging from a strong high pressure system in the Desert Southwest continues to move into the area as well as a weak frontal boundary that is expected to lift northward on Wednesday. A mid/upper level ridge will continue to build across the area, causing high temperatures to range from mid to upper 90s with heat indices ranging from 105-115 degrees over the forecast period.
500mb ridging remains firmly in control across South Central Texas with heat headlines across the entire CWA on Tuesday.
243 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 Cold front moves into and through the area today, with isolated convection possible across the southern CSRA.
Highs today will be a little warmer with 70s and few low 80s expected. Another cool night again with lows in the lower 50s to near 60. However, this will all hinge on the strength and influence of the expected central Canadian upper low.
458 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 Quite breezy, cooler and less humid conditions will occur today in the wake of a cold front.
220 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A cold front will move through the area this morning, then stall to our south tonight and early Wednesday. The front will be followed by weak high pressure today through Wednesday.
344 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A weak ridge of high pressure will gradually build into the Ohio Valley through tonight. The high will move east on Wednesday ahead of the next round of showers and thunderstorms expected to begin Wednesday night.
900 PM PDT Mon Aug 7 2023 A developing trough over the eastern Pacific will bring gradual cooling across the state this week.
Then high pressure moves across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon.
312 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 Weak high pressure drifting across the southeastern United States will provide us with generally quiet and dry weather in the short term. High temperatures this afternoon will mostly be in the lower 80s. about five degrees cooler than normal. Readings tonight will drop down into the lower and middle 60s, with some patchy valley fog possible along the Cumberland, Kentucky, and Licking rivers. Meanwhile, a downstream convectively-enhanced mid-level disturbance appears likely to move into the Lower OH Valley from the west Wednesday afternoon. Large scale forcing will be maximized late Wednesday evening and overnight as the sharp upper level trough quickly approaches from the west, and the SW LLJ increases to 40+ kts over central KY.
1158 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 (This evening through Tuesday night) In short, the record/near record heat continues across the region as a strong 595dam ridge continues to reside from southern Texas eastward over the Gulf of Mexico into western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Being on the norther periphery of this high is keeping a more zonal/progressive flow ongoing just to our north with embedded H5 impulses helping develop several MCSs across the mid south and Tennessee River Valley. Overall, the ridge and compression should keep things on the dry side within the column and another hot day across the region.
202 AM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023 NE Montana will be in NW flow aloft today with an upper low over Manitoba and an upper ridge to the west. It will also drop a cold front across southern Saskatchewan and the northeast half of the forecast area before it becomes stationary this evening. Upper ridge moves through eastern Montana on Wednesday which will bring warmer temperatures to most of NE Montana. The ridge moves to the east Wednesday Night.