Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1028 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) An Upper trough today extends from Ontario down along the MS River Valley as high pressure builds along the West Coast. As this trough moves east the ridge will move ashore being centered over OR Monday and continue to progress eastward Monday night. A cold front blew through the area this morning with a gusty north wind.
1030 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 * Light rain and clouds will exit the region tonight as a cold front moves through the region.
1025 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 (This evening through Monday night) 19z WV satellite shows a large scale upper trough over the Midwest and northwesterly flow aloft over the Panhandles. At the surface, winds are out of the north in the wake of yesterday's reinforcing cold front. Thus, expect highs to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in the southern Texas Panhandle while some portions of the northeast may hold back in the lower 40s if snowpack persists.
Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear with high pressure overhead.
LL flow veers to a more easterly regime on Tuesday as the aforementioned high pressure system pushes eastward. Temps may be a tad warmer but it will still be on the cool side with highs in the upper-50s to low- 60s.
Without much change in the pattern today, afternoon temperatures will resemble highs from yesterday - mainly in the upper 30's where there is snowpack and slightly warmer in north- center KS. Have introduced freezing fog to the forecast tonight into Tuesday morning due to moisture from the snowpack/snow melt, light winds, and as temperatures quickly drop to well below the expected crossover temp. An passing upper ridge will continue to support warmer conditions into midweek. Keep in mind, however, that locations with remaining snowpack could be as much as 10 degrees cooler than surrounding area without snow.
As for today, clear skies and high temperatures into the low to mid 40s look to continue the melting of the snow. Tuesday, sees upper level ridging develop which will be supportive of a return to above normal temperatures with highs in the 50s currently forecasted.
Strong northwest flow between the wake of the front and incoming high pressure will keep wind speeds breezy today, generally 10-15mph gusting 20-30mph. Skies will gradually clear out tonight as high pressure moves across the region, also allowing wind speeds to diminish.
KEY MESSAGES: - Cold today, warmer Tuesday. At the surface, once the aforementioned boundary moves through, high pressure will remain over the area through this evening, keeping conditions cold again today. A trough then approaches from the west, and will see warm air advection set up ahead of it on Tuesday, resulting in above normal temperatures Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures today will range from the lower 20s across west central Minnesota and far northeastern South Dakota, to the mid 30s along and west of the Missouri River.
These clouds could disrupt overnight cooling enough to keep temperatures above freezing south of I-20, but northern areas should have most clear skies and light wind thus allowing for lows to dip into the 20s.
Temperatures across the plains will probably be similar to a degree or two warmer than yesterday with some minor moderation under sunny skies but continued light winds. Lee troughing tonight will allow some westerly winds to spread down the east slopes into the adjacent plains keeping temperatures a little warmer than past few nights.
858 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 High pressure is building into Middle Tennessee following yesterday's fropa.
608 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (Today through Tuesday) The cold front that moved through is now south and east of the area. High pressure is centered over Oklahoma. As we move through today and Tuesday, high pressure will build through the region. As the high pressure system moves east on Tuesday, the streaming high clouds will be suppressed to the south and generally sunny skies will prevail. Highs will be a touch warmer with most locations in the 50s.
pdf Building high pressure will allow for drier and cooler conditions to develop across the area. Highs will range from the upper 50s for northern locations of southeast GA, while the rest of the area will see highs in the low/mid 60s. Lows on Monday night will get down to the high 30s and low/mid 40s.
It will trend warmer for the remainder of the forecast period.
439 AM PST Mon Nov 27 2023 Persistent high pressure through the middle of the week will keep the region precipitation-free and stagnant with little variation in temperatures each day. Freezing fog and low clouds will be a daily concern as well.
236 AM MST Mon Nov 27 2023 Tranquil patter continues across the state for the next several days due to a high-amplitude ridge building across the Rockies.
This means upper slopes and ridgelines are warmer and significantly drier than valleys below. Stiff east winds along the Sierra crest are making it feel much colder and exposed ridgelines have below zero wind chills. The east flow will weaken today, then turn SSW late this afternoon into Tuesday and increase along ridgelines once again.
(Today and tonight) High level cloud cover with passing upper trough (most widespread and thicker forecast over southern Oklahoma and northern Texas) along with light wind today. Temperatures expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday despite the high clouds.
Yesterday's cold front has cleared the area, and temperatures early this morning are chilly in the 30's at the time of this writing. With a colder airmass in place behind the front, it'll be a cold day with high temperatures only making it into the low to mid-40's. Clear skies tonight will result in even colder temperatures by Tuesday morning with lows in the low to mid-20's. Cold temperatures persist Tuesday with high temperatures once again only warming into the low to mid-40's.
522 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (Today and tonight) High level cloud cover with passing upper trough (most widespread and thicker forecast over southern Oklahoma and northern Texas) along with light wind today. Temperatures expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday despite the high clouds.
353 AM MST Mon Nov 27 2023 Tranquil patter continues across the state for the next several days due to a high-amplitude ridge building across the Rockies.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the Pacific Northwest region today, keeping the Northern Rockies under northwesterly flow aloft.
943 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2023 Low pressure tracks into the Canadian Maritimes today.
In turn, overnight lows in our north zones should still remain below freezing, but lows along and south of I-20 should hold in the mid-30s.
Temperatures were slightly warmer across the northern Edwards Plateau and northwest Hill Country where some mid level clouds are streaming overhead.
(Today through Tuesday night) Model agreement continues to trend for the synoptic flow to keep transitioning to a more zonal flow pattern as a ridge continues to build over the West Coast. This pattern transition will keep conditions over the Panhandles dry clear into the mid-week as the ridge continues to propagate eastward towards the Great Plains. For today specifically, the propagation of said ridge could help in decreasing surface pressure off lee-side of the Southern Rockies. Given this, have chosen to slightly decrease temperature in the northern half of the Panhandles with afternoon highs sitting in the low to mid 40s in the north and low 50s in the south. Meanwhile, overnight low are expected to stay below freezing with temperatures in the low 20s and teens.
Water vapor imagery highlights a flattened mean layer ridge centered over the Caribbean. The northern flank of this ridge has ceded ground to broad cyclonic flow and lower heights across the CONUS. A cold front continues to make steady southward progress in the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures across the Keys are in the lower to mid 70s, with dewpoints only a tick or two below the min temps. The main weather story will be the cold frontal passage today and tonight, with dewpoints falling to near 60 on Tuesday.
A cold start followed by a warmer and Sunny afternoon. (Today and tonight) It's another cold night as temperatures once again fall into the 30s in the more interior areas while the coast sticks to the 40s and even the low 50s. Monday night into Tuesday offers slightly warmer temperatures.
After some patchy morning fog, look for mostly sunny skies today, and again on Tuesday, with light winds and temperatures trending warmer.
High pressure will continue, if not slightly strengthen, today and Tuesday as the upper-level high pressure axis moves directly over our area. There will continue to be stratus (low-level clouds) in the Upper Snake Plain/Island Park area and patchy morning freezing fog for most valleys, especially the Magic Valley and Lower Snake Plain. Temperatures will continue to be around 10 to 15 degrees below normal with continued high pressure, overall light winds, and fresh snow.
Upper level flow will gradually become more zonal as the ridge axis over the west coast slides east, bringing a slight warm up to mid week and keeping conditions dry.
310 AM MST Mon Nov 27 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: A large trough currently drops south from arctic air over Nunavut and into Ontario and the Mississippi Valley. A high amplitude ridge runs up the west coast from California to the Pacific Northwest, across British Columbia, and crests over northern Alberta and the Northwest Territories. Farther west another large trough exists behind the west coast ridge south of the Aleutians. Tonight through Tuesday night: The ridge to the west will move inland slightly bringing a more downslope component with weak warming and dry conditions.
Brisk west winds are expected all day due to low pressure over Ontario and high pressure over the Plains. With light winds, especially inland from Lake Michigan, and very cold temps aloft (-12C at 925mb), the low temperatures will drop to around 10F, colder west and slightly warmer for lakeshore areas.
- Elevated fire weather conditions possible Tuesday Current analysis shows an upper ridge over the west coast with a trough over the Great Lakes area, resulting in northwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. The upper trough over the western CONUS will expand eastward toward the forecast area through the first half of the week bringing warming temperatures as downslope westerly warm advection spreads into the region. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over parts of western South Dakota on Tuesday, especially to the northeast of the Black hills due to a combination of breezy/windy conditions, temperatures in the the lower to mid 50s and minimum relative humidity falling to 22 to 32 percent.
(Today through Tuesday) The cold front that moved through is now south and east of the area. High pressure is centered over Oklahoma. As we move through today and Tuesday, high pressure will build through the region. As the high pressure system moves east on Tuesday, the streaming high clouds will be suppressed to the south and generally sunny skies will prevail. Highs will be a touch warmer with most locations in the 50s.
310 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Cold today, warmer Tuesday. At the surface, once the aforementioned boundary moves through, high pressure will remain over the area through this evening, keeping conditions cold again today. A trough then approaches from the west, and will see warm air advection set up ahead of it on Tuesday, resulting in above normal temperatures Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures today will range from the lower 20s across west central Minnesota and far northeastern South Dakota, to the mid 30s along and west of the Missouri River.
514 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Fairly widespread mid and upper level cloud cover early this morning should continue to help keep temperatures above freezing, with morning lows ranging from the mid 30s in the Hill Country to the mid 40s across the Rio Grande Plains. Partly cloudy skies for Tuesday afternoon will allow for slightly warmer high temperatures around 60F.
528 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (Today through Tuesday night) Model agreement continues to trend for the synoptic flow to keep transitioning to a more zonal flow pattern as a ridge continues to build over the West Coast. This pattern transition will keep conditions over the Panhandles dry clear into the mid-week as the ridge continues to propagate eastward towards the Great Plains. For today specifically, the propagation of said ridge could help in decreasing surface pressure off lee-side of the Southern Rockies. Given this, have chosen to slightly decrease temperature in the northern half of the Panhandles with afternoon highs sitting in the low to mid 40s in the north and low 50s in the south. Meanwhile, overnight low are expected to stay below freezing with temperatures in the low 20s and teens.
With clear skies over the Las Vegas Valley, this had led to another cold night with temperatures near freezing over the outer edges of the valley. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal today and Tuesday with slowly moderating overnight lows bringing a reduced risk for freezing temperatures to the lower deserts of southern Nevada.
859 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Minor updates to the forecast this morning to capture the trends in the low clouds and light snow over the northeast part of SD based on satellite/radar. KEY MESSAGES: - Cold today, warmer Tuesday. At the surface, once the aforementioned boundary moves through, high pressure will remain over the area through this evening, keeping conditions cold again today. A trough then approaches from the west, and will see warm air advection set up ahead of it on Tuesday, resulting in above normal temperatures Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures today will range from the lower 20s across west central Minnesota and far northeastern South Dakota, to the mid 30s along and west of the Missouri River.
Below freezing temperatures have also returned again to all areas a bit inland from the coast with single digit temperatures in places east of the Cascades.
The blocking ridge centered to our north over the PacNW will hold through Tuesday maintaining the dry weather with seasonably mild days and cool nights.
Main weather feature at this moment is the cold front pushing across the Florida Peninsula, bringing a cooler and drier airmass for this new week. Behind the front, high pressure is forecast to build over the southern CONUS allowing more clear days in terms of cloudiness. As for temperatures, highs today will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s, but cooler days are anticipated for this week. Tuesday morning lows in the lower 40s north, lower 50s central and interior, and mid 50s south.
Analysis and Discussion: The surface cold front responsible for the showers yesterday has moved off to the east and colder temperatures are starting to filter into the region. Today will feature colder temperatures with highs topping out in the low to mid-30s. Snow flurries will quickly diminish toward noon as drier air works into the region and the low- level moisture evaporates. Decreasing clouds overnight will allow for temperatures to drop across the region with overnight lows dropping down into the low to mid-20s; coupled with wind, the minimum apparent T for Tuesday morning is forecast to be in the low to mid-teens.
Clouds hang around somewhat as a weak upper level disturbance moves across the region with ridging beginning to move in behind it. Highs end up about a degree warmer than yesterday. Freezing temperatures will be seen across southeast New Mexico and the higher elevations.
As the high pressure settles across S TX, winds will become light and generally northeast. Due to SST in the mid 60s, tweaked the low temperatures up by a couple of degrees along the coast for tonight.
Minor updates to the forecast this morning to capture the trends in the low clouds and light snow over the northeast part of SD based on satellite/radar. KEY MESSAGES: - Cold today, warmer Tuesday. At the surface, once the aforementioned boundary moves through, high pressure will remain over the area through this evening, keeping conditions cold again today. A trough then approaches from the west, and will see warm air advection set up ahead of it on Tuesday, resulting in above normal temperatures Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures today will range from the lower 20s across west central Minnesota and far northeastern South Dakota, to the mid 30s along and west of the Missouri River.
240 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2023 Cold front will move through the area through the day today, with a much colder airmass following it.
1108 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (Rest of Today) High pressure will continue to filter into the region in the wake of a cold front now situated over the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today, with afternoon highs struggling to reach the upper 40s despite plenty of sunshine through the afternoon.
The trough axis moves through overnight with moisture decreasing Tuesday morning and inversion heights falling below 5 kft by afternoon in subsidence and drying. -Milder Midweek As the upper trough lifts out and the cold air retreats, our weather will turn quieter with milder temps for the midweek period.
1123 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Latest surface analysis had a center of high pressure over the Red River valley. These clouds could disrupt overnight cooling enough to keep temperatures above freezing south of I-20, but northern areas should have most clear skies and light wind thus allowing for lows to dip into the 20s.
Temperatures and dewpoints have already been trending cooler this afternoon with a dip into the 50s for much of the area except for lower to mid 60s along the east coast metro. The boundary will remain to the south on Tuesday with the southern and eastern portions of the peninsula struggling to reach into the lower to mid 70s but inland portions of Southwest Florida will only reach the mid to upper 60s.
Lows tonight will be cold, dropping into the low to mid 30s, except for the upper 30s to low 40s along the immediate coast.
A cold start followed by a warmer and sunny afternoon. (Today and tonight) It's another cold night as temperatures once again fall into the 30s in the more interior areas while the coast sticks to the 40s and even the low 50s. Monday night into Tuesday offers slightly warmer temperatures.
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night) High pressure centered over northeast Texas is funneling a cool, dry air mass into Middle Tennessee this Monday afternoon following yesterday's cold frontal passage.
The thickest cloud cover will be over the southern half of our CWA but across our north some less than optimal radiational cooling will occur and allow temperatures Tuesday morning to bottom out a degree or two cooler than they did this morning. Under full insolation temperatures will top out several degrees warmer than this afternoon but, remain cooler than normal in the 50s again.
(Rest of Today) High pressure will continue to filter into the region in the wake of a cold front now situated over the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today, with afternoon highs struggling to reach the upper 40s despite plenty of sunshine through the afternoon.
1003 AM PST Mon Nov 27 2023 Persistent high pressure through the middle of the week will keep the region precipitation-free and stagnant with little variation in temperatures each day. Freezing fog and low clouds will be a daily concern as well.
North and East of the QCA: If the clouds stick around, we can expect temperatures to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than currently forecast. Even with the slightly warmer temperatures, wind chills would likely be in the single digits across the area. With the fresh snowfall and cooler air in place, very efficient radiational cooling would lead to lows in the single digits.
(Tonight) Another chilly night is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure prevails at the surface.
Due to the localized nature of the high wind gusts, no wind- related headline is issued, but wave heights of 1 to 3 feet are possible on Lake Mohave this afternoon. Both the GEFS and the ECMWF ensemble means agree that a low pressure system in the Pacific Ocean will move inland mid-week. However, the GEFS has this system moving inland as an open wave, while the ECMWF closes the low off over southern California before pushing eastward through the Mojave Desert.
A longwave trough currently resides across much of the eastern CONUS with arctic air moving into the northern Plains and Great Lakes States.
High pressure migrating over the region through the day will promote light mainly northerly winds and below normal temperatures. In turn, overnight lows in our north zones should still remain below freezing, but lows along and south of I-20 should hold in the mid-30s.
Surface ridging is beginning to slide across the Northern Plains. As a result of the ridging, afternoon breezy winds will wane to light to nearly calm for most of the overnight hours. However, this ridge will quickly push southeast of the forecast area, resulting in southerly return flow by the end of the night. Given the timing of the ridge coming through, think that only a small window of time would allow for any fog to develop.
1138 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (Today through Tuesday night) Model agreement continues to trend for the synoptic flow to keep transitioning to a more zonal flow pattern as a ridge continues to build over the West Coast. This pattern transition will keep conditions over the Panhandles dry clear into the mid-week as the ridge continues to propagate eastward towards the Great Plains. For today specifically, the propagation of said ridge could help in decreasing surface pressure off lee-side of the Southern Rockies. Given this, have chosen to slightly decrease temperature in the northern half of the Panhandles with afternoon highs sitting in the low to mid 40s in the north and low 50s in the south. Meanwhile, overnight low are expected to stay below freezing with temperatures in the low 20s and teens.
Tomorrow, another cold day is in store with highs in the low 20s. Winds will be slightly lower as a high pressure skirts to our south and precipitation isn't expected.
With little change in the air mass and wind flow pattern over the next 24 hours expect development tonight to be over the same areas with stratus possibly filling in over the lower Snake Plain through Tuesday morning. Local MVFR/IFR ceilings due to stratus over parts of the Lower Treasure Valley, Upper Weiser Basin and lower valleys of Malheur County this morning.
234 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2023 A cold front continues to move south of the area this afternoon, with the persistent low clouds we had this morning having given way to mostly sunny skies.
(Tonight) High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest as a sfc cold front sits well off the Gulf Coast tonight. With clear skies and light winds expected overnight, went a little cooler than previously forecast for overnight lows, falling into the low to mid 20s.
A deep upper low centered south of Hudson Bay will dominate the weather across central Illinois for the next 24 hours. Thanks to cyclonic flow around the low, SCT-BKN clouds will continue to pivot southeastward through the area this afternoon.
Well below normal temperatures are expected through this forecast period with low temperatures ranging from the single digits above zero to the low 10s, and high temperatures on Tuesday in the low to middle 20s. Winds will then turn southwesterly during Tuesday afternoon and begin to bring slightly warmer air into the region.
We'll get a reinforcing shot of its cold as an upper trof pivots across the Ohio Valley and helps drive the heart of colder air residing to our north down/spread across the FA. Then as the high translates overhead and eventually to our south and east by mid week, we'll finally get some return flow that pushes temperatures back to more seasonal 50s/30s. Eventually, a low pressure storm system spins out of the 4 Corners, and lifts across the Red River Valley enroute toward us. Return flow ahead of the system is stout, with high pressure then anchored off the Southeast coast.