Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
I've instead gone for a blend of GFS which seems to have a more amplified trough and higher low level RH. Upper level disturbances rotating around an upper low over the Great Lakes and NE U. Continued unsettled weather as a second upper low remains over the Great Lakes and NE U.
Otherwise, expect dry and pleasant conditions this afternoon with highs near 80 and cooler overnight lows ranging from near 50 across the eastern Ozarks to around 60 degrees elsewhere.
At the same time, showers and strong thunderstorms will develop along a cold front over northeast TX. Precipitation chances will be in place for all of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday as a warm front moves northward from Louisiana and stalls over central AR.
Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is sinking southeast through the Central Plains.
Influence from the dry and stable high pressure over northeast Kansas has kept these showers south and west overnight as associated high clouds streaming southeast. The modified high pressure center will gradually translate southward today, shifting light westerly winds to the south by evening. Skies become mostly sunny, allowing temps to jump into the lower 80s as a result. The upper level support may be sufficient for scattered storms developing in the afternoon in our CWA, as the highest probabilities focus near central and southern KS.
1223 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Cold front has sagged all the way into the Concho Valley and Heartland this afternoon. As for temperatures, front will still have an affect on temperatures on Tuesday, with readings in the lower 90s across I-20 to near 100 again across the Concho Valley south into the Edwards Plateau.
1053 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 A large upper low will move slowly eastward across the Great Lakes and into New England through the short term period. A disturbance rotating around the upper low will bring some showers not far northeast of our southwest Indiana territory, but we will keep the forecast dry.
1117 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Deep closed upper level low is slowly making its way eastward thru Lower Michigan late this evening. Unseasonably cool temps will persist with overnight lows mainly in the low to mid 40s. 999mb low pressure is somewhat north of YYZ, moving north. It will lift n and then w tonight, seemingly in pursuit of the 500mb closed low which settles over central lower MI. Despite a cutoff upper level low stalled out across the region over the last couple of days, minimal amounts of rainfall have fallen across the area. This scenario looks like it will remain the case through the short term forecast with the upper level low only slowly edging off to our east.
1135 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Weak/subtle ripples in the upper flow emanating from a western CONUS upper trough amidst seasonable precipitable water values will support low to modest chances for hit-or-miss showers/storms tonight through Wednesday evening across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas. The highest chances for showers and storms the next few days will likely be over primarily western Kansas. Temperature-wise, the influence of Canadian high pressure will support seasonably cool temperatures through Tuesday, with somewhat of a warming trend by Wednesday.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level low pressure pinwheeling slowly east across lower Michigan early this morning, with its attendant surface reflection pivoting back northwest north of Georgian Bay. Otherwise, largely dry conditions under partly to mostly cloudy skies are found south of the big bridge. Upper level low will continue to move slowly east, reaching vicinity southeast Ontario by early Wednesday morning. Lows tonight mostly in the lower and middle 40s. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level low will continue to depart east of the area heading through midweek.
Cold front will be over southern GA through this evening, then lift back to the north as high pressure builds from the south. Highs will range from around 90 inland where storms will begin earlier, to the lower 90s east.
200 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 A deepening upper low will become cut-off and drift slowly east over the Great Lakes through late this week, keeping the weather unsettled and temperatures cooler than normal. Min temps will vary from the mid and upper 40s across the northern and western Mtns to the low 50s in the SE valleys. A cut-off upper low will crawl across the Lower Great Lakes over the next few days. The base of the upper low will remain to the northwest of PA into the middle of the week, perhaps finally shifting east by Wednesday. Temperatures should remain 5-10F cooler than normal maxes until later this week when we get back near normal, and overnight temps will be near to just slightly below normals for the balance of the week.
A cold front will bring breezy and gusty conditions Tuesday evening into Wednesday and more seasonal temperatures for the second half of the week before an incoming trough for the weekend. A robust cold front will track through during the late afternoon and evening with a tight cross-Cascade pressure gradient and strong cold air advection. UW WRF-GFS and other high res models support the higher gusts as well. Some redevelop is expected Tuesday afternoon along and ahead of the cold front over Eastern Washington and North Idaho. JW 06Z TAFs: A strong cold front will arrive late on Tuesday bringing increasing and gusty west-southwest winds.
On the synoptic scale, a subtle upper ridge was positioned over the Srn/Cntrl Plains with stout trough/closed low invof Great Lakes region.
East of the Caprock escarpment though clouds should be more stubborn as easterly flow continues for much of the day and hence temperatures should remain a bit cooler in the 70s to low to mid 80s. The same caveat to yesterday's forecast applies today as well though that if clouds dissipate quicker than currently forecasted high temperatures may be warmer (or vice versa).
340 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 High pressure will build overhead through midday before moving offshore this afternoon through tonight.
110 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 The upper low continues to spin over the area this afternoon, centered over northern Lake Michigan for now but expected to move into the northern LP this evening. As the upper low moves into the LP, this next batch of rain should pivot south/southwest over the UP, directed generally over the central UP through the night. Expect lows in the lower to mid 40s area-wide.
The axis of the trough will be more along the spine of the Rockies today, while drier air nudges into NE WY. A trailing trough sweeping into the PacNW will finally turn steering flow back from the west on Wednesday, which will finally begin to usher out some of the deeper moisture across the state.
Water vapor imagery suggests moisture transport from the Atlantic toward the north side of the low is ongoing. Through tonight and tomorrow, this moisture advection will improve as the low moves east and with it, the moist conveyor belt. Dry on Wednesday with the aformentioned upper-level low over the Northeast and High pressure passing through the Ohio River Valley.
The first pronounced embedded wave within the low effectively shunted deeper moisture within warm conveyor belt east of our area yesterday leaving a drier air mass over Indiana. Latest satellite layered moisture products show low- mid moisture wrapping around the north side of the low. Southwesterly flow should displace this cooler air mass some, but there may be quite a gradient across the area especially with the potential for diabatic/evaporative effects with any ongoing precipitation across the north.
142 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Broad low pressure aloft through mid week.
Today and the rest of the week, afternoon highs are expected to reach the lower 90s along the coast and mid 90s across inland areas. Rain chances from mid week trough the weekend will be ranging from the 30% to 60%.
1204 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) It's a tale of two air masses this afternoon, with a convectively reinforced cold front attempting to progress southwestward across the Permian Basin, impeding on warm, downsloping westerly to northwesterly surface flow. Aside from that, the region will remain dry today (and pretty much every day this week), with cooler temperatures in the lower to middle 80s across northern areas, 90s and lower 100s south and west of the aforementioned front.
330 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 High pressure will pass across the southern Appalachians today, with Low Pressure over the Great Lakes. The Low is expected to drift south into the Ohio Valley Wednesday.
309 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 The primary forecast challenge in the short term continues to be impacts of smoke throughout the column, as well as the low probability of a shower/storm or two Wednesday afternoon across far northeast South Dakota and western Minnesota. and higher), per the last few KABR RAOBs, with somewhat higher concentrations of low level moisture depicted along/ahead of these subtle boundaries/surface pressure trofs to the north and east, per regional surface analysis.
111 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023 19Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated large upper level low near the UT/NV border with apparent short wave trough lifting out of southern Colorado. With short wave trough providing forcing for large scale ascent and an airmass that will be relatively unstable with minimal heating, expect to see an increase in thunderstorms through the next few hours along western and southern borders which will gradually fill in overnight as trough lifts to the north. Trough will advance north overnight, but may actually get blocked by ridge axis to the north of the area.
118 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Message: - Dangerous heat expected to continue across the region - Heat Advisory tomorrow with the potential for an Extreme Heat Warning The region remains under ridging with a stationary mid-level high over Mexico. At the surface there's high pressure over the Southern Plains and an thermal low spread across west Texas into southeastern NM.
Temps will be warmer with more sunshine Tuesday, then even warmer on Wednesday.
Cooler conditions continue into Tuesday before a warming trend occurs the rest of the week. A cooler, drier airmass continues to move over the area, keeping afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Tuesday will yield slightly warmer temperatures, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. An upper level ridge will build over the region, allowing for temperatures to climb back up to normal by midweek.
The upper level low will drift slowly east across the southern Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night. As it does, a mid level trough will pivot down into northern portions of our area through the day on Tuesday before shifting into our southeastern areas through Tuesday night. Good convergence along this trough axis will lead to widespread shower activity with the highest pops across our north through Tuesday afternoon, shifting into central/southern portions of our area through Tuesday night. An upper trough and closed low located over the Eastern CONUS will provide periods of unsettled weather. A shot of moisture and short wave energy rounding the trough to the east may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.
320 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Current satellite imagery shows large upper low spinning over Lake Michigan with expansive cloud shield over WI extending into northern IL and IN. Moving through today, the upper low will meander eastward across the Great Lakes Region. As a couple of embedded impulses dig southeast around the low, showers and embedded thunderstorms will push through IN and OH.
1258 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half of the week as our air will be moving in from the northwest. Showers will linger over the area through Wednesday morning until the upper low finally shifts east into southern Quebec/New York.
207 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Upper level ridge and high will be over eastern Montana today with warm and dry weather. The upper ridge and high moves to the east while an upper low and trough moves inland from the Pacific. This upper low reaches western Montana during the day on Wednesday afternoon and brings a cold front into the forecast area. Models have the cold front reaching Phillips and Petroleum Counties in the late morning and moving east across the forecast area during the afternoon and evening.
This convection was occuring in association with an upper trough located across the Great Basin and High Plains. The upper low that has brought in ample moisture to the midlevels of the atmosphere continues to weaken and trek east into the 4 Corners region, so expecting moisture supply that's been fueling these showers to wane. Temperatures tomorrow will be slightly warmer as airmass aloft warms in response to east-west oriented ridging over NorCal nudging southward.
(Today and tonight) With high pressure and zonal flow aloft, hot and drier conditions are expected to setup over West Central Texas today.
Temperatures are hovering in the lower 80s, with dewpoints in the mid 70s, and winds on land from the south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Surface analysis depicts high pressure over the western and central subtropical Atlantic with a ridge extending westward across the Bahamas, and the Keys lying in gentle southerly flow along the western side of this ridge. Aloft, the trough which has been lingering over the eastern Gulf of Mexico for the past few days has weakened and shifted eastward across Florida. The Atlantic ridge will gradually build across our area, at least at the lower and mid levels, through the next few days.
1119 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 A deepening upper low will become cut-off and drift slowly east over the Great Lakes through late this week, keeping the weather unsettled and temperatures cooler than normal. Min temps will vary from the mid and upper 40s across the northern and western Mtns to the low 50s in the SE valleys. A cut-off upper low will crawl across the Lower Great Lakes over the next few days. The base of the upper low will remain to the northwest of PA into the middle of the week, perhaps finally shifting east by Wednesday. Temperatures should remain 5-10F cooler than normal maxes until later this week when we get back near normal, and overnight temps will be near to just slightly below normals for the balance of the week.
819 PM PDT Mon Jun 12 2023 A weak trough will remain over Southern California this week, maintaining a relatively deep marine layer, abundant low clouds, and below average temperatures. Perhaps more likely tomorrow or Wednesday night as another weak low pressure center moves inland over SoCal. The persistent low pressure system that dominated the weather across the southwestern United States this weekend will progress eastward through the first half of this week, and a closed low will become anchored offshore to our southwest.
Also changed was the now northwesterly flow along the 500 mb isobaric surface, consistsent with the upper-level trough that has been in the vicinity of the Florida Peninsula sliding eastward into the western Atlantic. Elected to nudge measurable rain chances to the low-end slight category through this afternoon.
719 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Cold front will be over southern GA through this evening, then lift back to the north as high pressure builds from the south. Highs will range from around 90 inland where storms will begin earlier, to the lower 90s east.
The upper level low will remain well to our west today centered over the Great Lakes Region. The upper level low will weaken as it moves gradually eastward passing over the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. The weather will turn unsettled Wednesday with increasing chances for showers and the threat for thunderstorms as the low approaches and crosses the region.
1005 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 The world's most obvious upper low is seen on morning sat imagery over se lower MI. Places near Saginaw Bay will still reach near 70f to the lower 70s. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level low pressure pinwheeling slowly east across lower Michigan early this morning, with its attendant surface reflection pivoting back northwest north of Georgian Bay. Otherwise, largely dry conditions under partly to mostly cloudy skies are found south of the big bridge. Upper level low will continue to move slowly east, reaching vicinity southeast Ontario by early Wednesday morning. Lows tonight mostly in the lower and middle 40s. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level low will continue to depart east of the area heading through midweek.
Afternoon temperatures will be cooler, as the airmass continues to dry out.
A minor inland warming trend by late in the work week as high pressure begins to build.
breaks down today as a jet max begins to dig out a trough over the Pacific Northwest. Models indicated the low center over central Utah will dip to the Four Corners by 12Z before ejecting rapidly to the northeast Colorado Plains by midday. The transit of low pressure northeastward across the forecast area is expected to get showers going a bit earlier than is usual for this time of year. During the afternoon, modest cape and moisture levels suggest increased shower and thunderstorm activity with the higher terrain favored. The trough over the Pacific Northwest develops a closed low over the northern Rockies on Wednesday. Troughiness and increased moisture levels are expected to bring increased shower and thunderstorm activity with the mountains and north favored.
Current satellite imagery shows large upper low spinning over Lake Michigan with expansive cloud shield over WI extending into northern IL and IN. Moving through today, the upper low will meander eastward across the Great Lakes Region. As a couple of embedded impulses dig southeast around the low, showers and embedded thunderstorms will push through IN and OH.
Upper ridging has shifted southward and is now sitting across the Dakotas. There is still enough subsidence from the ridge for one more dry day today. The only exception might be isolated storms across the higher Black Hills late this afternoon into the early evening. An upper trough moving through the Pac NW tonight will cut off Wednesday across the northern Rockies.
The primary forecast challenge in the short term continues to be impacts of smoke throughout the column, as well as the low probability of a shower/storm or two Wednesday afternoon across far northeast South Dakota and western Minnesota. and higher), per the last few KABR RAOBs, with somewhat higher concentrations of low level moisture depicted along/ahead of these subtle boundaries/surface pressure trofs to the north and east, per regional surface analysis.
Northwesterly flow aloft, ahead of an upper trough over the Great Lakes, will continue to work in combination with this frontal boundary to funnel embedded disturbances our way. Beyond Wednesday night, rain chances will really begin to drop off overall as a dominant upper-level ridge axis to our SW across Mexico begins to exert even greater influence across our region. Regardless, it appears the upper-level ridge will serve to keep any fronts north of the region and therefore limit convection for most areas. In fact, there is still some chance that isolated triple-digit high temperatures could occur in our southern zones by the end of this week and into the weekend given the strength of the ridge axis.
This dry southwest flow aloft will be the dominate weather pattern for most of this week into this weekend with upper level trofiness to our west/northwest and upper level high well to our southeast.
616 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Cooler and drier for the most part today courtesy of a brief high pressure. Beneficial rain is expected late this afternoon through Wednesday, as an upper low swings across the upper Ohio Valley. As previously advertised, the handling of the area of a minimally supported area of low pressure over the northeast has been consistently inconsistent, meaning an individual temporal suite of models shows a reasonably united front, then in a unified manner they change their mind.
1046 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Cooler and drier for the most part today courtesy of a brief high pressure. Beneficial rain is expected late this afternoon through Wednesday, as an upper low swings across the upper Ohio Valley. As previously advertised, the handling of the area of a minimally supported area of low pressure over the northeast has been consistently inconsistent, meaning an individual temporal suite of models shows a reasonably united front, then in a unified manner they change their mind.
631 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 (Today and tonight) With high pressure and zonal flow aloft, hot and drier conditions are expected to setup over West Central Texas today.
(Today through Wednesday) Concur with deterministic global/mesoscale models that the upper level high pressure system will remain quasi-stationary over the region, while an upper disturance moves around the northern periphery of the upper high.
642 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Concur with deterministic global/mesoscale models that the upper level high pressure system will remain quasi-stationary over the region, while an upper disturance moves around the northern periphery of the upper high.
A persistent onshore flow pattern will keep cooler than average weather in place through late week as a broad area of low pressure remains anchored over the region.
525 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half of the week as our air will be moving in from the northwest. Showers will linger over the area through Wednesday morning until the upper low finally shifts east into southern Quebec/New York.
Dewpoints are running just a couple degrees cooler than originally forecast, as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 60's as of 10:30 AM.
Surface observations show a cold front has pushed almost through the entire forecast area this morning. The aforementioned cold front will stall through the day and shift northward through the area overnight. Lows should be in the lower to mid 60s inland and closer to 70 near the coast. Upper level disturbances rotating around an upper low over the Great Lakes and NE U. Continued unsettled weather as a second upper low remains over the Great Lakes and NE U.
834 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half of the week as our air will be moving in from the northwest. Confidence is high that thunder potential will not reach eastern OH/western PA until after 6pm due to very little available instability with a lingering upper-lvl ridge. Showers will linger over the area through Wednesday morning until the upper low finally shifts east into southern Quebec/New York.
659 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 High pressure will pass across the southern Appalachians today, with Low Pressure over the Great Lakes. The Low is expected to drift south into the Ohio Valley Wednesday.
237 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023 An upper ridge is producing mostly sunny skies in eastern MT this afternoon, while a weak upper low centered over southwest MT is contributing to cloud cover and scattered showers and thunderstorms south and west of Billings. On Wednesday, an upper low will move eastward from southern British Columbia to southern Alberta, placing the Northern Rockies under cyclonic flow and large-scale ascent. This system should bring a cold front across the area, with marginal instability and shear. Showers and storms should decrease from west to east Wednesday night as the upper low moves farther eastward, with the large- scale ascent exiting MT to the Dakotas and large-scale descent moving into the area.