Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
After another mainly clear and chilly night tonight, a notable warming trend begins in earnest on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. This will support high temperatures in the low to mid 60s for most lower valleys and 5 to 10 degrees above normal overall.
422 AM PST Sat Nov 11 2023 Dry conditions are expected through much of Sunday as ridging builds over the inter-mountain west.
234 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2023 Quiet weather today will give way to strong west wind tonight as a short wave trough moves along the Montana/Canada Border. The wave will bring a cold front through the forecast area this evening. The higher elevations of the Little Rockies still look like they could reach 60 mph gusts late tonight while the rest of the region in most likely to see gusts 30 to 40 mph. Winds diminish Sunday and evening as high pressure moves into the area.
A pattern change looks to bring cooler, wetter, and windier conditions by mid-week. A strong trough continues southward down the California Coast through the forecast period.
High Impact Weather Potential: Low Pattern Synopsis: Mid/upper-level ridging will continue to slide over the Great Lakes today as a downstream jet max punches over the Atlantic. Forecast Details: Quiet weather is in store for most of northern Michigan today with aforementioned high pressure overhead. Otherwise, additional rain/snow chances may work into northern Michigan later tonight as warm advection increases out ahead of the previously mentioned cyclone. Near-average highs in the upper 30s and low 40s are in store this afternoon with lows dipping into the low to mid 30s for most overnight. A pesky little trough caught up in the flow and its associated warm air advection graze the the forecast area Sunday.
935 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions through the weekend. Elsewhere outside of central OH, sunny skies should be maintained through the near term period, with highs topping out mainly in the lower 50s by late in the day.
Similar temperatures to yesterday are expected today with afternoon highs possibly a tad cooler today due to the increasing cloud cover, with highs in the upper 50s.
High pressure is centered over the Middle Atlantic with a wedge beginning to build in from the northeast.
617 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 Much cooler and wetter conditions for the weekend as cold air wedging sets up.
318 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 (Issued 317 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023) Today through Sunday night: Clear skies through the morning, with increasing cloud cover through the afternoon as WAA develops ahead of a low pressure system tracking across Canada. A few CAMs are allowing for a sprinkle or two across western portions of the CWA, although confidence in precipitation reaching the ground is low due to significant dry air in the lowest levels.
No major changes with the latest deterministic and ensembles, as the upper level flow is still progged to become northwesterly on Sunday as a ridge builds into the central and northern Plains. The sunny skies and south to southwest winds will allow temperatures to warm up into the low to mid 60s.
After a subfreezing start to the day. winds will be lower today with the core of the high overhead for much of the day.
607 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 (Today through Sunday) Overall a relatively quiet weekend is expected as high pressure remains the dominant influence across South Florida. With low level moisture continuing to linger, there will once again be chances for late night and early morning fog due to the low level moisture.
408 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Today and Tonight: A positively titled upper-level trough axis extends from the Upper Midwest southwest toward the Baja Peninsula early this morning, with a broad axis of moist ascent along its eastern flank tapping into a tropical Eastern Pacific air mass. At the surface, cooler drier post-frontal air has been trying to undercut precipitation but so far has only managed to clear out the northern third of our forecast area, or areas roughly north of the Interstate 20 corridor. This will allow for rain chances to diminish as mid-level ridging starts to build behind this retreating boundary.
-Noticeably warmer weather is in store tomorrow, continuing throughout the upcoming workweek. Mid-level moisture advection is evident on water vapor imagery over the eastern half of KS ahead of a trough axis approaching from the west. Have maintained just a low (10%) chance of sprinkles under the mid-level cloud deck as the trough progresses eastward today. Highs should run about ten degrees warmer than today. The more active part of the pattern will exist both north and south of the area, keeping conditions here persistently dry and warmer than average.
(Today and tonight) Light rain has held on through much of the overnight thus far as a secondary trough behind the one that lifted through our area yesterday, is deeper and more dynamic than previously progged. Overnight lows will be cooler as mostly clear skies and light winds into early Sunday morning allow for increased radiational cooling. In our normal cooler spots over the southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains, lows will drop to around the freezing mark, gradually warmer as you shift east and south, to upper 30s across the southern South Plains and low 40s east of the escarpment.
619 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions through the weekend. Otherwise, high pressure will build east across the Great Lakes through the day. Temperatures will be cooler today with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s north to the lower 50s in the south.
Yesterday's warm and humid conditions have continued into Saturday, with dew point temperatures in the mid 70s and relative humidity values in the lower 80s. The 12Z sounding indicates that the lower atmosphere is saturated between 1000 and 850 MB, with west winds ranging from 12 to 18 knots. From synopsis, high pressure centered in the western North Atlantic will continue to slide eastward and broaden over the next several days.
Meanwhile, latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a large area of high pressure centered over the Midwest, which will cause any remaining lake effect snow showers to dwindle through the morning. 500 mb pattern has a trough in the desert sw, a trough in the central and northern plains and a ridge across Manitoba and Ontario 12z Sat. This ridge strengthens on Sat over Ontario. Ridging then builds into the northern plains 00z Tue. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the northern and central plains 12z Tue which moves into the Great Lakes area 12z Wed while also starting to get flattened a bit. By 12z Fri, ECMWF has trough axis past while GFS is passing it through the upper Great Lakes then.
259 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 (Issued 259 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023) Tonight through Sunday night: High pressure overhead this afternoon will slide eastward tonight and Sunday ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure. The low will pass by to the north on Sunday, dragging a weak cold front through southern Wisconsin in the evening.
341 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure builds into the area through Sunday night.
This will help push temperatures into the low to mid 60s across the area Sunday afternoon. Weak upper level ridging and persistent southerly flow will keep temperatures in the 60s - 10 to 15 degrees above average for this time of year - through much of the upcoming week with no rain chances in sight.
1216 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure this weekend. Mild temperatures and dry weather start the new week with high pressure lingering. Went on the lower side of dewpoints Sunday afternoon based on dry air at the top of the mixing level on the meso model soundings. High pressure and zonal flow continues the dry and mild trend for the end of the weekend into the beginning of the work week. Sunday morning will start off cloudy, as a trough overhead pushes east, but clouds will gradually decrease and move out as the day moves on. High temperatures in the lower to mid 50s across the lowlands, while the mountains will be in the 40s and low 50s.
1044 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2023 Key Messages: 1) Areas of freezing fog are expected across the San Luis Valley this morning. Most areas are cool and clear as of 3 am this morning, with the exception of the San Luis Valley where freezing fog has developed. Daytime highs look to reach into the low 60s for the Arkansas River Valley and mid to upper 50s elsewhere across the plains.
Ridging across the area will continue to weaken and keep light NE/E flow with an afternoon sea breeze near the coast through Sunday.
Snow also continues to accumulate in the higher terrain, particularly across northwest Montana.
240 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 * Dry and seasonably warm weather continues through most of the next several days with high pressure over the region * Lows in the 30s, with morning frost possible early in the week. * Daytime temperatures warming into the 60s for much of the upcoming week * Only chance for rain will come with a cold front late this upcoming week Beautiful late fall afternoon ongoing as the Ohio Valley resides under strong high pressure. reading this afternoon should peak in the lower to middle 50s.
Sunday: Low pressure is forecast to track well to the north across south-central Canada.
Ridging in the western North Atlantic is still keeping steering flow from the east to southeast, which has helped today become one of the warmer days we have experienced in a while. High pressure in the western North Atlantic will continue to weaken and shift eastward and weaken, causing it to lose its grip on our area.
At the surface, ridging is located over the Ohio Valley with lee troughing across western KS/western Nebraska. This will allow a weak cold front to move through Thu night into Fri.
311 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions through at least midweek, with temperatures trending from slightly below normal to slightly above normal through the first part of the workweek. Temps hovering a few degrees either side of the 50-degree mark will dip into the lower to mid 30s late tonight, but should plateau late in the night with the arrival of thicker/more widespread cloud cover. Clear skies are on tap for Sunday night, with temps again bottoming out in the lower to mid 30s for most spots.
1110 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2023 - Windy over the higher elevations of the Front Range through tonight. The main concern today is still near critical fire weather conditions just south of the Cheyenne Ridge. Strong winds have been limited to the highest mountains, with up to about 50 mph on Niwot Ridge, but below timberline it's only been about 30 mph. Northwesterly flow begins to weaken Sunday as high pressure enters our CWA.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Cooler temperatures and rainy weather will continue for the short term period. Mid and upper level southwesterly flow, courtesy of a trough over the southwestern US, will continue to stream moisture over the cool surface air.
Occasional light rain will continue tonight, but drier mid-level air will begin to move over the area tomorrow as ridging moves across the Central CONUS and winds aloft become westerly to northwesterly.
(This evening through Sunday) Broad troughing exists across the southwestern CONUS this afternoon with the polar jet along the US/Canada border. The upper trough should be just west of us by Sunday afternoon.
1116 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 (Today through Sunday night) Radar imagery this morning shows a few sprinkles may still be occurring over our far southeast counties in association with a warm front located to our south. Sunday looks to be similar to today except just a tad warmer as weak upper ridge builds along the Gulf Coast, with lows once again in the upper 30s north to mid 40s south, and highs reaching the 60s.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to middle 50s. On Sunday, mid-level ridging will begin to build into the region, temporarily bringing dry conditions to majority of the CWA.
High pressure remains over the region. Despite plenty of sunshine, these cool NE winds will keep temps a bit cooler than yesterday, with thermometer readings likely in the mid to upper 50s (around 5 degrees below normal). Areas north of the I-64 corridor will likely be a few degrees cooler compared to the south. Lows overnight will drop into the low- mid 30s, though some of the colder valley locations may drop into the upper 20s.
135 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure building across the Commonwealth will provide a dry and seasonably chilly weekend.
* Cooler temperatures, much closer to normal, with lows generally in the mid 30s and highs in the 50s, to around 60 are expected through the weekend. This will help keep lows from reaching their lowest potential, but with such dry air in place overnight lows will still manage to drop into the lower 30s in our cooler sheltered valley locations. High pressure brings a return to warm and dry weather to begin new work week.
High temperatures today will be in the low 50s, then a warming trend is expected with highs in the low 60s for much of the work week. Forecast temperatures for this afternoon appear on track with highs in the low-to-mid 50s expected across the region beneath abundant late morning sunshine.
1148 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2023 IR depicts ample mid and upper level moisture spilling over a positively oriented ridge across the Northwest. A weak wave to the north and northeast has skirted the Montana state line with minimal, if any, snow impacts the higher elevations. Otherwise, improving skies this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the south with increasing convergence aloft. Slight breezes in these same areas overnight with some upper level clouds still present before becoming less than 10mph for the entire CWA by sunrise Sunday morning as the gradient slackens due to the aforementioned high pressure.
The axis of the longwave trough that has been sitting over much of the Desert Southwest the last several days has finally pushed east of the Divide. While northwest flow will continue to dominate for the rest of today, changes are on the way as ridging builds in over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. This will begin to advect much warmer 700mb temperatures into the region, which, when combined with abundant sunshine, will boost tomorrow's highs by 5-10 degrees compared with today.
Surface analysis reveals some modest convergence but most support is through the lower levels, H850 and above, associated with the open short wave trough crossing Nebraska into Iowa this afternoon; this feature has been well depicted on WV. Although ample moisture return remains restricted by the larger ridging pattern over the southeast, enough exists through the mid levels to support the light rain and sprinkles. With cloud cover keeping the region rather seasonable today, with temperatures in the lower to mid-50s, we're still looking ahead to a considerable, for the time of year, warm up beginning tomorrow and continuing through much of the coming week.
1221 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions through the weekend. Elsewhere outside of central OH, sunny skies should be maintained through the near term period, with highs topping out mainly in the lower 50s by late in the day.
1140 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 (Today and tonight) Light rain has held on through much of the overnight thus far as a secondary trough behind the one that lifted through our area yesterday, is deeper and more dynamic than previously progged. Overnight lows will be cooler as mostly clear skies and light winds into early Sunday morning allow for increased radiational cooling. In our normal cooler spots over the southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains, lows will drop to around the freezing mark, gradually warmer as you shift east and south, to upper 30s across the southern South Plains and low 40s east of the escarpment.
343 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure builds into the area through Sunday night.
/SW/ Today and Tonight: A positively titled upper-level trough axis extends from the Upper Midwest southwest toward the Baja Peninsula early this morning, with a broad axis of moist ascent along its eastern flank tapping into a tropical Eastern Pacific air mass. At the surface, cooler drier post-frontal air has been trying to undercut precipitation but so far has only managed to clear out the northern third of our forecast area, or areas roughly north of the Interstate 20 corridor. This will allow for rain chances to diminish as mid-level ridging starts to build behind this retreating boundary.
Winds were southeasterly from 5-10 mph and temperatures with temperatures in the lower 50s to around 60 degrees. A slowly developing upper level ridge will tilt the zonal flow slightly towards northwest flow Sunday with additional high pressure moving towards the region from the plains. This pattern will keep highs in the lowers to middle 60s for Sunday.
A coastal trough should also develop over the Western Gulf of Mexico during this period of the forecast, supplying additional moisture and enabling numerous showers to development over SE Texas. Rain showers become more widespread Sunday night as the coastal trough drifts north while the mid to lower levels of the atmosphere become saturated.
Temperatures will still be chilly with lows near freezing.
High pressure centered over Lake Huron today resulted in some diurnal cu using up the remaining moisture trapped under the subsidence inversion. A thermal trough overhead will keep temperatures muted the rest of today and tonight with temps dropping to around 30 again tonight. The high will then hold over the region through Sunday but center itself farther east allowing a more southerly wind and a slight increase in max temps to around 50. The weak cold front will sweep through Sunday night but will be more of a wind shift line with a flip to gusty NW flow.
19Z water vapor imagery showed an upper trough axis over the upper Midwest extending into the southwest. Surface OBs showed high pressure over the MS river valley with low pressure over the central high plains.
(Rest of today through Sunday) Overall a relatively quiet weekend is expected as high pressure remains the dominant influence across South Florida.
High temps will be near or a couple degrees above normal, in the lower to mid 60s in the TN Valley. Underneath this flow and surface ridging, dry weather will persist with temperatures near to above normal.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) A short wave trough over Baja California at press time will pinch off from the westerlies overnight, then will get ejected across northern Mexico Sunday owing to strong height falls off the west coast. In any event, temperatures tonight will range from the mid 30s across northern Lea County NM to the lower 50s along the Rio Grande. Rain chances start to ramp up after daybreak Sunday as deep layer ascent and moisture increase ahead of the upper low and a warm front begins to lift northward across west Texas. The upper low continues to translate east Sunday night and opens up over the Big Bend.
Later tonight, mid and upper level moisture associated with strengthening upstream troughing will begin to spill into the area from the southwest.
1220 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2023 Weak upper level troughing is located across the central Plains currently. The overall temperature and wind forecast appears to be on track as most areas should reach at least the lower 60s for high temperatures. Temperatures in the low 20s in lower lying areas to the low 30s over eastern portions of the area are currently forecasted.
High pressure is pushing in the northeast at the moment but is expected to retrograde before a stronger high pressure takes its place tomorrow. When the high pressure sets into place from the northeast overall expecting ceilings to finally start lifting tomorrow afternoon, but not completely clearing out until the evening into overnight. Temps today are forecast to stay around what they are now which is in the low to mid 50s with lows tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
DDV (Issued 317 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023) Today through Sunday night: Clear skies through the morning, with increasing cloud cover through the afternoon as WAA develops ahead of a low pressure system tracking across Canada. A few CAMs are allowing for a sprinkle or two across western portions of the CWA, although confidence in precipitation reaching the ground is low due to significant dry air in the lowest levels.
The region will also remain under strengthening southwest flow aloft as a trough of low pressure will dig southward over Baja California. Nevertheless, high temperatures should reach the low 60s area-wide this afternoon. Low temperatures will therefore be in the low 40s across the Big Country where skies will be clear, and in the upper 40s elsewhere. (Sunday night through next Saturday) By Sunday night, an upper level low be moving east towards the Big Bend region. Lift ahead of this low, combined with increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will have brought some showers in our southern counties already by Sunday afternoon.
943 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2023 - Windy over the higher elevations of the Front Range through tonight. The main concern today is still near critical fire weather conditions just south of the Cheyenne Ridge. Strong winds have been limited to the highest mountains, with up to about 50 mph on Niwot Ridge, but below timberline it's only been about 30 mph. Northwesterly flow begins to weaken Sunday as high pressure enters our CWA.
A sfc cold front then treks across the Dakotas Sunday morning ushering in some caa. Westerly gusts to 25 to 35 mph (strongest north of Hwy 212) and decent lapse rates will produce good mixing conditions that could offset the lower level caa. The breeziest conditions are not expected to fully align with the lowest RH, but high grassland fire danger is still forecast. Upper ridging begins to build in Sunday night with waa under the ridge. - Depth of an upper level trough at the end of the period, and the impacts of pcpn chances and temperatures.
1252 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure this weekend. Mild temperatures and dry weather start the new week with high pressure lingering. Went on the lower side of dewpoints Sunday afternoon based on dry air at the top of the mixing level on the meso model soundings.
1123 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure remains over the region. Despite plenty of sunshine, these cool NE winds will keep temps a bit cooler than yesterday, with thermometer readings likely in the mid to upper 50s (around 5 degrees below normal). Areas north of the I-64 corridor will likely be a few degrees cooler compared to the south. Lows overnight will drop into the low- mid 30s, though some of the colder valley locations may drop into the upper 20s.
With sunny skies and southerly flow on Sunday, temperatures will be allowed to warm back to above normal with highs in the low to mid 60s.
630 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions through at least midweek, with temperatures trending from slightly below normal to slightly above normal through the first part of the workweek. Temps hovering a few degrees either side of the 50-degree mark will dip into the lower to mid 30s late tonight, but should plateau late in the night with the arrival of thicker/more widespread cloud cover. Clear skies are on tap for Sunday night, with temps again bottoming out in the lower to mid 30s for most spots.
750 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure this weekend. Mild temperatures and dry weather start the new week with high pressure lingering. Went on the lower side of dewpoints Sunday afternoon based on dry air at the top of the mixing level on the meso model soundings.
533 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) Slightly warmer temps across the region today, especially north of I-20, as clouds have diminished in our northern zones. The low clouds will gradually move out of the region from north to south, but still expecting some high clouds to remain. Should see warmer temps spread areawide, with highs generally in the upper 60s. The aforementioned upper trough over the SW CONUS will start to eject ENE into West Texas.