Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure continues to dry days with chilly mornings through midweek.
112 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2023 Beginning to see the northwesterly wind shift across Southwest Florida and the northern portions of South Florida this morning as an initial cold front pushes across the region. Later today, a cold front will make its way southwards through South Florida in the later afternoon and evening with a much drier air mass filtering in behind it. Temperatures today will reach the low to mid 80s and then fall to the low to mid 70s on Tuesday as the front brings in cooler air.
1121 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 High pressure is building into Middle Tennessee following yesterday's fropa.
Our coldest night of the season to this point is expected tonight as temperatures fall into the lower to middle teens.
1142 AM MST Mon Nov 27 2023 IR currently depicts mainly clear skies across the CWA with upper level ridging set up nicely across the Rocky Mountain west. Colder cloud tops associated with a trough to the north into Canada will slowly push eastward staying north of the CWA at this time. The Wind River Basin will continue to be even cooler due to the snowpack, and as a result, the only real changes have been lowering temperatures for this area due to NBM's lack of grasp of the snowpack phenomena.
1123 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (Today and tonight) High level cloud cover with passing upper trough (most widespread and thicker forecast over southern Oklahoma and northern Texas) along with light wind today. Temperatures expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday despite the high clouds.
(This evening through Tuesday) Upper level zonal flow continues over the FA due to confluence between a high pressure system over western United States and a low pressure system just north of the Great Lakes region. The high pressure will disintegrate and form a ridge as it moves eastward. The remaining clouds from the day will clear out by this evening will allow for good radiational cooling tonight with low temperatures below freezing over majority of the CWA and slightly above freezing over the far Southern Rolling Plains.
A large amplitude H500 ridge will traverse SE towards the Four Corners Region by tomorrow afternoon. Warming temperatures return tomorrow with high ranging from the lower 50s in the NE Panhandles to lower 60s in the south central TX Panhandle.
Latest surface analysis had a center of high pressure over the Red River valley. These clouds could disrupt overnight cooling enough to keep temperatures above freezing south of I-20, but northern areas should have most clear skies and light wind thus allowing for lows to dip into the 20s.
1137 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Fairly widespread mid and upper level cloud cover early this morning should continue to help keep temperatures above freezing, with morning lows ranging from the mid 30s in the Hill Country to the mid 40s across the Rio Grande Plains. Partly cloudy skies for Tuesday afternoon will allow for slightly warmer high temperatures around 60F.
943 AM PST Mon Nov 27 2023 Gusty Santa Ana winds below the passes and canyons will weaken today and Tuesday as high pressure weakens over the West.
Water vapor shows upper low over the northern Great Lakes with upper ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, high is over the eastern Dakotas with deepening lee trof to our west. Upper ridge will continue to build east through mid week, with dry and warming conditions expected. Lee trof to our west will shift eastward into the Northern Plains on Tuesday, scouring out any remaining cold air and providing some breezy west/northwest winds and elevated fire wx concerns.
1011 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (Issued 1001 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023) Scattered flurries to light snow will likely linger throughout the day and into the evening as CAM soundings show saturation in the dendritic growth zone until that time likely owing to weak voricity pivoting around the base of a large 500mb trough to our north. Otherwise, expect chilly and windy conditions today with highs in the low to mid 20s. Brisk west winds are expected all day due to low pressure over Ontario and high pressure over the Plains. With light winds, especially inland from Lake Michigan, and very cold temps aloft (-12C at 925mb), the low temperatures will drop to around 10F, colder west and slightly warmer for lakeshore areas.
The higher elevations will see the strongest gusts, possibly over 40mph at the tops of the mountains and hill tops, with higher gusts expected east of the Appalachians where some mountain wave enhanced winds will be possible. Overnight with the clear skies temperatures will drop below freezing across most locations with the better radiational cooling. These cold ambient temperatures in addition to the remaining somewhat breezy conditions will lead to wind chill values dropping into the teens in some places and single digits in the higher elevations.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) It's a cool and cloudy day out there after the passage of the cold front yesterday. Surface winds out of the southeast have developed in response to lee troughing to the north and a slight warming trend will set in for the next few days as upper level ridging rebuilds across the west. While afternoon high temperatures will be slow to recover today and tomorrow, the surface return flow and increasing cloud cover with a disturbance moving across this evening will help moderate low temperatures, and most locations should remain above freezing for Tuesday morning.
(This evening through Tuesday) As a large upper trough currently pushes through the eastern CONUS, this is putting the West Central Texas area in weakening, near-zonal flow aloft. Some locations could drop to near freezing but most places should stay in the mid to upper 30s overnight.
1015 AM MST Mon Nov 27 2023 Tranquil patter continues across the state for the next several days due to a high-amplitude ridge building across the Rockies.
Temperatures warm around 5 degrees on Tuesday as a small ridge works its way in bringing mid 40s to low 50s across the region.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) A very weak upper level short wave trough will move across south Texas tonight and could lead to very isolated showers over the offshore waters this evening. Then a flat upper ridge will be from southwest Texas to along the Rio Grande Tuesday and Tuesday night. Could see some breaks in the cloud cover over the Victoria area on Tuesday, but highs will be in the lower 60s for most areas. The isentropic upglide will increase in the 295-300K layer Tuesday night, so cloudy skies will keep lows warmer than MOS again.
516 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) High pressure centered over northeast Texas is funneling a cool, dry air mass into Middle Tennessee this Monday afternoon following yesterday's cold frontal passage.
507 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (Tonight) High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest as a sfc cold front sits well off the Gulf Coast tonight. With clear skies and light winds expected overnight, went a little cooler than previously forecast for overnight lows, falling into the low to mid 20s.
258 PM PST Mon Nov 27 2023 Persistent high pressure through the middle of the week will keep the region precipitation-free and stagnant with little variation in temperatures each day. Freezing fog and low clouds will be a daily concern as well.
539 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) As a large upper trough currently pushes through the eastern CONUS, this is putting the West Central Texas area in weakening, near-zonal flow aloft. Some locations could drop to near freezing but most places should stay in the mid to upper 30s overnight.
For tomorrow, mostly sunny skies will reign with light winds and temperatures trending slightly warmer.
If we can break apart the clouds more the higher the chance overnight lows drop into the negative single digits in NW MN. Temperatures in eastern ND reach into the upper 30s to lower 40s, while NW MN reaches into the low to mid 30s.
458 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) A very weak upper level short wave trough will move across south Texas tonight and could lead to very isolated showers over the offshore waters this evening. Then a flat upper ridge will be from southwest Texas to along the Rio Grande Tuesday and Tuesday night. Could see some breaks in the cloud cover over the Victoria area on Tuesday, but highs will be in the lower 60s for most areas. The isentropic upglide will increase in the 295-300K layer Tuesday night, so cloudy skies will keep lows warmer than MOS again.
Key Messages: * Seasonably nice temperatures anticipated the next two afternoon, with many locations likely topping out near or above 50 (normals are in the lower to mid 40s this time of year).
- Warmer with more dry conditions expected Tuesday for southern Colorado. A ridge of high pressure will begin to push eastward over the area, bringing an increase in descent and keeping dry air in place. The aforementioned ridge will continue its push over the area, keeping descent and dry air in place over southern Colorado. Looking at temperatures, the trend to warmer temperatures also continues, as clear skies and weak downsloping winds will help to warm the area to around and even slightly above seasonal values.
302 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Key Messages: * Seasonably nice temperatures anticipated the next two afternoon, with many locations likely topping out near or above 50 (normals are in the lower to mid 40s this time of year).
Upper level ridging in the region will keep conditions dry and cool across western Washington through Tuesday. The ridge will dampen and move off to the east by midweek, which will open the door for a series of weather systems to move across the area late in the week and over the weekend.
446 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) It's a cool and cloudy day out there after the passage of the cold front yesterday. Surface winds out of the southeast have developed in response to lee troughing to the north and a slight warming trend will set in for the next few days as upper level ridging rebuilds across the west. While afternoon high temperatures will be slow to recover today and tomorrow, the surface return flow and increasing cloud cover with a disturbance moving across this evening will help moderate low temperatures, and most locations should remain above freezing for Tuesday morning.
530 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (Tonight) Another chilly night is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure prevails at the surface.
336 PM PST Mon Nov 27 2023 Persistent high pressure through the middle of the week will keep the region precipitation-free and stagnant with little variation in temperatures each day. Freezing fog and low clouds will be a daily concern as well.
Low temperatures will drop to around 50 west of Lake Okeechobee to the lower 60s along the east coast. Temperatures and dewpoints have already been trending cooler this afternoon with a dip into the 50s for much of the area except for lower to mid 60s along the east coast metro. The boundary will remain to the south on Tuesday with the southern and eastern portions of the peninsula struggling to reach into the lower to mid 70s but inland portions of Southwest Florida will only reach the mid to upper 60s.
429 PM MST Mon Nov 27 2023 IR currently depicts mainly clear skies across the CWA with upper level ridging set up nicely across the Rocky Mountain west. Colder cloud tops associated with a trough to the north into Canada will slowly push eastward staying north of the CWA at this time. The Wind River Basin will continue to be even cooler due to the snowpack, and as a result, the only real changes have been lowering temperatures for this area due to NBM's lack of grasp of the snowpack phenomena.
545 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Upper level zonal flow continues over the FA due to confluence between a high pressure system over western United States and a low pressure system just north of the Great Lakes region. The high pressure will disintegrate and form a ridge as it moves eastward. The remaining clouds from the day will clear out by this evening will allow for good radiational cooling tonight with low temperatures below freezing over majority of the CWA and slightly above freezing over the far Southern Rolling Plains.
/NEW/ /Tonight and Tomorrow/ A high pressure center will move across the region tonight with calm winds expected for most of the night. A blanket of cirro and altostratus associated with a fetch of Pacific moisture will limit radiational cooling and keep most above freezing tonight despite the calm winds. The high pressure center will move east tomorrow, bringing a return to southerly flow.
Stagnant conditions underneath a strong upper level ridge has triggered an Air Stagnation Advisory for selected low level elevations. As usual under high pressure, wind will be light, mostly drainage at night and variable during the daylight hours, depending on how much sunshine develops. Many mountain locations will be warmer than the clouded over Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley cities and towns.
At the surface, a trough is nudging into the area from the north with some associated cirrus. High temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer than they were on Monday as snow pack has generally melted with the exception of northern counties. Temperatures are forecast in the low to mid 50s along and north of I-70 and upper 50s to the south.
This was due to a jet max just north of the area and ahead of a longwave trough approaching the area. A longwave trough currently resides across much of the eastern CONUS with arctic air moving into the northern Plains and Great Lakes States.
Stratus and fog has yet to form across the area, but expect some development overnight into Tuesday morning over the lower Snake Plain and Weiser Basin, as well as in mountain valleys. Local MVFR/IFR stratus and patchy fog in the lower Treasure Valley, lower valleys of northern Malheur County, and upper Weiser Basin through Tuesday morning.
Currently - The Keys remain within a modestly cooler and drier airmass in wake of the recent cold front passage. The post cold front environment, weak as the front may have been, has resulted in a lack of shower activity within the forecast area. Temperatures have also come down and are riding around the lower 70s. High pressure over the south and Gulf of Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh northerly breezes across Keys waters through the night.
Zonal flow aloft will transition to low amplitude ridging over the area today and tonight. Winds will start light and variable, but increase to 5 to 10 mph out of the south/southwest as west central Texas falls between surface ridging to our east, and lee troughing in eastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico.
Minor adjustments were made to the forecast tonight to account for greater than expected cloudcover and warmer than expected temperatures. The thickest cloud cover will be over the southern half of our CWA but across our north some less than optimal radiational cooling will occur and allow temperatures Tuesday morning to bottom out a degree or two cooler than they did this morning. Under full insolation temperatures will top out several degrees warmer than this afternoon but, remain cooler than normal in the 50s again.
Auten A deep upper low centered south of Hudson Bay will dominate the weather across central Illinois for the next 24 hours. Thanks to cyclonic flow around the low, SCT-BKN clouds will continue to pivot southeastward through the area this afternoon.
1048 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (Tonight) High pressure continues to build in from the northwest this evening, promoting mostly clear and calm conditions across the region. With the dry air mass in place (along with the mostly clear sky), it will be a good setup for radiational cooling as temperatures will plummet well below the freezing mark eventually settling into the low to mid 20s in most locations.
1018 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Upper level zonal flow continues over the FA due to confluence between a high pressure system over western United States and a low pressure system just north of the Great Lakes region. The high pressure will disintegrate and form a ridge as it moves eastward. The remaining clouds from the day will clear out by this evening will allow for good radiational cooling tonight with low temperatures below freezing over majority of the CWA and slightly above freezing over the far Southern Rolling Plains.
1102 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) As a large upper trough currently pushes through the eastern CONUS, this is putting the West Central Texas area in weakening, near-zonal flow aloft. Some locations could drop to near freezing but most places should stay in the mid to upper 30s overnight.
1016 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) It's a cool and cloudy day out there after the passage of the cold front yesterday. Surface winds out of the southeast have developed in response to lee troughing to the north and a slight warming trend will set in for the next few days as upper level ridging rebuilds across the west. While afternoon high temperatures will be slow to recover today and tomorrow, the surface return flow and increasing cloud cover with a disturbance moving across this evening will help moderate low temperatures, and most locations should remain above freezing for Tuesday morning.
(Tonight) High pressure continues to build in from the northwest this evening, promoting mostly clear and calm conditions across the region. With the dry air mass in place (along with the mostly clear sky), it will be a good setup for radiational cooling as temperatures will plummet well below the freezing mark eventually settling into the low to mid 20s in most locations.
818 PM MST Mon Nov 27 2023 Satellite imagery this evening shows high clouds spilling over a mid-upper upper level ridge centered to the west and southwest of MT. Some very dry is in place above the lowest levels per 00z sounding and gaps in cloud-cover on water vapor imagery.
The low level warm advection won't arrive until late in the day, so high temps only in the lower to middle 20s after a cold start in the upper single digits to teens. Tomorrow, another cold day is in store with highs in the low 20s. Winds will be slightly lower as a high pressure skirts to our south and precipitation isn't expected.
Early this morning, northwest flow aloft persisted across the Northern Plains, with a closed low over the Hudson Bay and a secondary closed low upstream off the coast of California, while ridging was building over the western CONUS into the Rockies. Quiet weather will continue into the morning, with temperatures slowly warming through the night as the warm front advances east.
1045 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) A very weak upper level short wave trough will move across south Texas tonight and could lead to very isolated showers over the offshore waters this evening. Then a flat upper ridge will be from southwest Texas to along the Rio Grande Tuesday and Tuesday night. Could see some breaks in the cloud cover over the Victoria area on Tuesday, but highs will be in the lower 60s for most areas. The isentropic upglide will increase in the 295-300K layer Tuesday night, so cloudy skies will keep lows warmer than MOS again.
1025 PM MST Mon Nov 27 2023 IR currently depicts mainly clear skies across the CWA with upper level ridging set up nicely across the Rocky Mountain west. Colder cloud tops associated with a trough to the north into Canada will slowly push eastward staying north of the CWA at this time. The Wind River Basin will continue to be even cooler due to the snowpack, and as a result, the only real changes have been lowering temperatures for this area due to NBM's lack of grasp of the snowpack phenomena.
Satellite imagery this evening shows high clouds spilling over a mid-upper upper level ridge centered to the west and southwest of MT. Some very dry is in place above the lowest levels per 00z sounding and gaps in cloud-cover on water vapor imagery.
High pressure brings dry conditions later today into tonight.
The trough that has been over the area in recent days exits Tuesday morning with moisture depth and inversion heights falling under 5000 ft during the day Tuesday. This will cause snow showers to diminish Tuesday afternoon and evening, drifting northeast while they dissipate as flow becomes southwesterly in weak ridging.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge located over the Four Corners will move eastward through the first 24 hours of the forecast period, ending up overhead late tonight. Increasing heights/thicknesses, abundant sunshine, and southwesterly low level flow point to high temperatures about 6 to 7 degrees warmer than yesterday and closer to the warmer end of MOS guidance. Quiet weather continues into tonight with the ridge moving overhead with NBM low temperatures looking okay at this time.
(Today) Dry weather will dominate the TN Valley today as high pressure continues to reign throughout the area. High temperatures are forecast to slightly warm into the low to mid 40s under sunny skies. Dew points have been adjusted to the drier side as CAA influences the forecast behind our recent cold front and we are trending lower than NBM model guidance for today-- therefore, we are forecasting minimum RH values of ~30% in portions of the TN Valley this afternoon.
Afternoon temps will be pleasantly cool in the low 60s. Meanwhile over the southwest CONUS, a robust mid/upper trough will quickly propagate eastward, inducing surface pressure falls over west Texas. Wednesday's highs are forecast to range from the low 60s in our northern most counties to the upper 60s to near 70 south of I-10.
Areas underneath the clouds have stayed 'warmer' overnight whereas elsewhere, temperatures have crashed well below most model guidance with readings already in the single digits in the Wapsipinicon river valley as of 1 am. Wind chills will drop below zero this morning area wide, with a few sites in the lower teens below zero for an hour or two not out of the question. In any case, warmer readings are forecast overnight with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.
Refreshing cooler air continues to filter into South FL today. Enjoy! (Today through Wednesday) The drier and cooler air mass has settled in over the region which will keep conditions stable and dry through Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows Tuesday night will fall into the low to mid 50s for most locations, with exceptions being upper 40s near the Lake and near 60 for the east coast metro.
403 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Key Messages: - Chilly again today with high temperatures ranging from the mid 30s over NE Missouri to the low to mid 40s elsewhere. - Warmer temperatures come tomorrow with highs returning into the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Coastal zones are not expected to dip below freezing as light easterlies promote relative downslope warming. High cirrus are beginning to stream onshore ahead of a weakening upper low that has slowly been approaching the region. Cloud cover will rapidly fill in this evening as the low pushes onshore, bringing the likelihood for beneficial rain showers to the southern zones of the CWA, mainly south of Cape Mendocino, through Wednesday morning.
Wind chills early this morning in the low to middle teens.