Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1113 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Weak upper-level ridging over the Intermountain West and High Plains over the next few days will keep temperatures across most of the CWA near-average. Luckily, the weak ridge will hang on through the afternoon, leading to high temperatures similar to Sunday's, but with increasing clouds. This is a great set-up for the Sierra Madre Range to receive a quick foot of snowfall along the highest peaks of the range.
205 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Colder air follows a front this morning while high pressure builds across the mid Mississippi Valley.
In addition, a weak coastal trough is predicted to develop. Expect the combination of the weak trough/increasing moisture to result in isolated showers/patchy light rain over the southern CWA Monday afternoon, and over at least the Coastal Plains Monday night. (If the coastal trough does not develop, moisture convergence is expected Monday/Monday night owing to moderate onshore flow over the adjacent Waters and significantly weaker winds inland, which can trigger shower activity.
Earlier this morning, we issued a quick morning update to lower rain chances for the Lower Keys for the first period. This panned out, with no observed rainfall throughout the Lower Keys, with the bullseye of rainfall so far today over the island chain in the vicinity of Marathon. MOS guidance is in accord with all available convective allowing model (CAM) guidance for the first period, bringing measurable rainfall chances in the high category (70% or above) for the entire CWA. High pressure will build across the Southeast Monday and Monday night.
/NEW/ /This afternoon through Monday/ Nearly all of the forecast area saw freezing temperatures this morning with most locations falling between 28 and 32 degrees.
140 PM MDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Water vapor shows upper trof rotating through the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, upper ridge over the Rockies, and next trof inland west coast. At the surface, back door cold front sliding south across western SD. Low level flow will turn northeast overnight behind the cold front, ushering moist upslope flow back into the region. Could be a a bit of freezing drizzle mainly in far northwest SD where there will be a little more shear atop the boundary layer, but probs too low at this point to introduce to the forecast.
(Tonight) High pressure continues to shift east this evening and overnight, keeping cold and dry conditions in place for the Tennessee Valley. Current forecast lows fall solidly into the lower 20s, but calming winds and clear skies will support stronger radiational cooling and temperatures may need to be lowered further during the evening update.
(Rest of today through Monday) An area of low pressure centered over the Great Lakes region has an associated cold front that extends down the Atlantic seaboard of the United States into Florida. There could also be development of a surface area of low pressure somewhere around the area which could yield additional shower and thunderstorm activity on Monday.
134 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Dry and unseasonably cool conditions are expected early this week as the region is under the influence of high pressure. The center of the high will gradually shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast by mid-week allowing for a slow return to near seasonable weather.
Otherwise, no significant changes were needed as a cold March day continues with high temps only reaching the low 40s today.
Clear skies and surface ridging over the area will then persist through the day Monday. Light winds under the ridge will be more favorable for decoupling and cooling tonight (compared to last night), and this will allow for the coldest night of this cold snap (and for the month), with forecast mins of mostly 10-20. Monday night lows will be well below freezing for most places, but weak warm air advection will favor a bit larger ridge/valley difference. West-southwest flow dominates the pattern through the bulk of the extended, with the only exception being Fri-Sat as a trough sweeps through the Midwest.
Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 50s across the plains and we should see temperatures hovering there for the next couple of hours. Nighttime lows will be a bit warmer than last night across the area.
332 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 High pressure will build into the area through Monday.
343 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Chilly breezy conditions will come to an end tonight, as high pressure builds eastward.
237 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Warmer temperatures are in store for much of the upcoming week.
300 PM MDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Clear skies this afternoon will give way to cloudier conditions this evening as high clouds move in from the southwest ahead of our next system and low clouds with patchy fog move in from the northeast behind a back door cold front. The cold front will drop south this evening turning surface winds out of the northeast and east. The next system will enter our region Monday as an upper trough approaches our region. The models have continued with the more southerly track of the the broad, progressive trough over the western US. With lows still dropping below freezing.
Winds will be out of the north tomorrow with cooler temperatures than what was observed today.
These breezy southerly winds will advect a warmer air mass into region as spring officially begins tomorrow. The breezy winds and warmer temperatures will also elevate fire weather conditions, especially across the northern half of Oklahoma as moisture return will be limited tomorrow.
(This evening through Monday) Strong lee trough developing Monday will bring south winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts. The clouds will keep temperatures on the cooler side, with highs in the mid 50s through lower 60s.
It now appears the greatest forcing of ascent this afternoon will remain east of the Lower Keys, and thus elected to lower PoPs there, with measurable rainfall likely eastward in the Middle and Upper Keys. From synopsis, gentle to moderate north to northeast breezes are expected through the early afternoon, as the Florida Keys remain in between high pressure to the east and a front slowly moving southward through the Gulf.
105 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 High pressure building in through tonight eases the wind, but keeps it very dry and cold.
Wind chills will be in the mid to upper 20s throughout the area, with the exception of the SE Big Bend, with wind chills near freezing. Tomorrow will be another cool day, as we will feel the effects of some cold air damming, with winds advecting cooler air from the northeast. Highs tomorrow are expected to be in the low 60s in the Florida Panhandle, with upper 50s in SE Alabama and SW Georgia.
1248 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Snow showers north of I-80 will gradually subside as high pressure builds, with otherwise cold and dry conditions persisting through tonight.
Currently - A strong cold front that had swept through the Keys earlier today has resulted in fresh north to northeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. These winds are being driven by a high ~1030 mb high centered over the lower Mississippi Valley. Despite this, a broad deep layered trough has resulted in good moist confluent southwesterly flow through the lower levels. High pressure centered over the lower Mississippi Valley will continue to support fresh north to northeasterly breezes through the overnight period.
629 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 (This evening through Monday) Shallow ridging from 700-500 mb is set to depart the region tonight ahead of a gradual influx of high clouds.
947 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 High pressure will build into the area through Monday.
649 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 High pressure across the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains will result in cool, dry weather to start the work week.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be weather associated with cold frontal passages tonight into tomorrow. Currently, northwest flow aloft with an initial cold front pushing south across North Dakota. Fog is also expected over the higher terrain of western North Dakota tonight/Monday AM as winds become easterly and upslope. Daytime highs will also be noticeably cooler for Monday, about 10-15 degrees colder than what we are experiencing today.
This includes the potential for mountain snow and lowland rain during the day, with some of that snow potential mixing down to the lowlands at night.
Abundant sunshine was observed across the area early this afternoon, with temperatures in the lower to middle 30s as of 2 PM. 1) Dry conditions continue tonight through Monday 2) Stronger winds return tonight, lasting through Monday The area of high pressure over the southern Mississippi River valley, that has helped keep conditions dry today, will gradually translate eastward tonight. With increasing warm air advection, high temperatures Monday will warm into the upper 40s northeast to the lower/middle 50s southwest. Deep trough in the western United States for much of this week with a zonal to southwest flow aloft across our area.
848 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 High pressure will build along the east coast the first half of this week.
859 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 GOES-16 Satellite trends and 00Z upper air analysis indicate a longwave trough axis extending from the Canadian Maritimes back through the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valleys this evening. Meanwhile, a 1031 mb ridge of high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley is bringing clear skies, light to nearly calm winds, and temperatures as of 8 PM CDT in the 30s areawide. These conditions are favorable for excellent radiational cooling and for temperatures to fall into the teens and 20s across the Mid-South overnight with the lowest temperatures occurring towards the Tennessee River.
620 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 (Tonight) High pressure continues to shift east this evening and overnight, keeping cold and dry conditions in place for the Tennessee Valley. Current forecast lows fall solidly into the lower 20s, but calming winds and clear skies will support stronger radiational cooling and temperatures may need to be lowered further during the evening update.
719 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 High pressure building in through tonight eases the wind, but keeps it very dry and cold.
609 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 (This evening through Monday) Strong lee trough developing Monday will bring south winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts. The clouds will keep temperatures on the cooler side, with highs in the mid 50s through lower 60s.
(Tonight) Clear and calm conditions in place across the Tennessee Valley late this evening as high pressure at the surface builds in behind a strong cold front. Low temperatures will once again fall into the lower 20s in most locations and would not be shocked to see the mercury drop into the upper Teens in a few sheltered valleys.
(This evening through Monday) A dry, cold airmass continues to settle in across the Southeastern CONUS following a secondary cold front overnight. Winds will shift out of the NE, but with clear skies and dry air aloft, surface RH values will drop again into the low 20 percent range.
On Monday afternoon, some of the models suggest some shower activity around Denver as a cyclone develops, so I added some isolated pops after 3 pm. Timing in the grids looks on track so will leave the highlight as is. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 50s across the plains and we should see temperatures hovering there for the next couple of hours. Nighttime lows will be a bit warmer than last night across the area.
Current system moving through the area should continue to bring some steady snow to the higher elevations as a low pressure area dips southeastward tonight over and through the area. The Winter Storm Severity Index gives a 60 to 90 percent probability of moderate impacts with this storm for the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
740 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Warmer temperatures are in store for much of the upcoming week.
This high will continue drifting east tonight and become centered over our CWA Monday. /22/ A high pressure building over the ArkLaMiss region will continue to enable drier and cooler conditions across the area. Lows tonight into Monday morning will plummet into the lower to middle 20s, prompting us to issue a Freeze Warning across the CWA from 8pm - 10 am Monday morning. The potential for fire danger will arise tomorrow as minimum relative humidity values dip into the low 20s in the east and upper 20s in the west.
739 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 High pressure will build into the area through Monday.
(The rest of tonight) Another clear, but not as cold night in store for the forecast area with light south winds returning to the area as high pressure slides east.
649 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 High pressure will build across the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. With the high remaining across our area early this week, expect moderating temperatures and quiet weather conditions. When the high shifts east around mid-week, increased moisture could bring some small rain chances to the region. Based on everything I've looked at, I plan on dropping lows tonight a few degrees, especially east of the Blue Ridge. With the abundant sunshine it will feel warmer.
Rainfall amounts over northeast FL will be very light owing to a dry layer below 8 kft and the low dewpoints.
656 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 A high pressure building over the ArkLaMiss region will continue to enable drier and cooler conditions across the area. Lows tonight into Monday morning will plummet into the lower to middle 20s, prompting us to issue a Freeze Warning across the CWA from 8pm - 10 am Monday morning. The potential for fire danger will arise tomorrow as minimum relative humidity values dip into the low 20s in the east and upper 20s in the west.
924 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 High pressure will build across the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. With the high remaining across our area early this week, expect moderating temperatures and quiet weather conditions. When the high shifts east around mid-week, increased moisture could bring some small rain chances to the region. Based on everything I've looked at, I plan on dropping lows tonight a few degrees, especially east of the Blue Ridge. With the abundant sunshine it will feel warmer.
525 PM MDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Water vapor shows upper trof rotating through the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, upper ridge over the Rockies, and next trof inland west coast. At the surface, back door cold front sliding south across western SD. Low level flow will turn northeast overnight behind the cold front, ushering moist upslope flow back into the region. Could be a a bit of freezing drizzle mainly in far northwest SD where there will be a little more shear atop the boundary layer, but probs too low at this point to introduce to the forecast.
Overall shower coverage will diminish this evening and overnight, but never really coming to an end for coastal locations as a secondary trough swings inland tonight into Monday. Expect an uptick in gusty winds tonight as this trough swings through, mainly for coastal areas and the higher terrain, though overall wind speeds are likely to remain below advisory criteria. With weak ridging in place for Monday night, fog may be more widespread for west side valleys and clearing along the coast could lead to a night of frost potential in the Coquille Basin.
Temperatures have struggled to get above freezing and in fact, as of this writing, Crossville (and many spots on the Plateau) is still below. Clouds will clear out this evening, we'll get max radiational cooling and with us starting from a cooler point than originally thought, I think the NBM is way too warm. Tomorrow night will be warmer, but still below freezing, so we issued a Freeze Watch for Tuesday morning with this morning's forecast update.
1114 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 High pressure will build along the east coast the first half of this week.
103 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure will build into the area through Monday. The high will persist into Tuesday.
1032 PM MDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Water vapor shows upper trof rotating through the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, upper ridge over the Rockies, and next trof inland west coast. At the surface, back door cold front sliding south across western SD. Low level flow will turn northeast overnight behind the cold front, ushering moist upslope flow back into the region. Could be a a bit of freezing drizzle mainly in far northwest SD where there will be a little more shear atop the boundary layer, but probs too low at this point to introduce to the forecast. Upper trof moves through Monday night and Tuesday. Precip type in south central SD somewhat in question and could be a mix of rain/freezing rain/snow. Will leave as rain/snow for snow and wait to see if freezing precip probs increase.
346 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Warmer temperatures are here for week starting today! Highs for today will be seasonable with temperatures in the 50s. With the warmer temperatures comes a wetter pattern.
We will remain under dry high pressure today. It will feel much warmer than yesterday, but it is still well below normal. On Tuesday, south winds will develop as the cold high pressure system continues to depart. By late afternoon, a trough approaching from the west will start to bring a few showers into our northwest counties.
357 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure will keep dry conditions over the area today and into Tuesday, with a warming trend expected.
1142 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 GOES-16 Satellite trends and 00Z upper air analysis indicate a longwave trough axis extending from the Canadian Maritimes back through the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valleys this evening. Meanwhile, a 1031 mb ridge of high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley is bringing clear skies, light to nearly calm winds, and temperatures as of 8 PM CDT in the 30s areawide. These conditions are favorable for excellent radiational cooling and for temperatures to fall into the teens and 20s across the Mid-South overnight with the lowest temperatures occurring towards the Tennessee River.
With the center of High pressure southeast of the area, a tightened pressure gradient will lead to increasing winds throughout the morning and afternoon. Sustained winds up to 25-30 mph and gusts up to 35-40 mph will be possible during the morning and early afternoon hours, with the highest winds over the northwest CWA (mainly west of Hwy 65).
A bigger trough moves in very late tonight bringing moisture from an atmospheric river to the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra Nevada.
Lee troughing ahead of this system is resulting in a modest low-level jet. As this trough approaches a stray shower may develop around the Davis Mountains but elsewhere remains dry.
Snowfall will be mainly up to an inch, except 5 to 10 inches for the Cascades from Lake of the Woods northward and a few to several inches for the higher terrain in both Siskiyou County and east of the Cascades. Expect widespread precipitation with MVFR/IFR ceilings and terrain obscurations through the majority of the TAF period, with the lowest conditions along the coast and in the Umpqua basin (VCTY KRBG).
421 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Delmarva Coast to the Lower Mississippi Valley will provide dry and moderately breezy weather with a gradual warming trend for the first half of this week.
Temperatures around the island chain are in the mid 60s, with dew points in the low 60s.
This will transition to a mix of rain and snow showers throughout the day before a cold front helps to transition everyone back to snow later this afternoon and evening. Following the main organized push of moisture on the leading edge of a warm front lifting north this morning helping to keep overnight temperatures fairly mild, precipitation will take a brief break for most ahead of a cold frontal passage this afternoon and evening. Following this front and embedded thunderstorms, snow showers will shift to being confined to the mountains carrying over into Tuesday as a weak transitory ridge brings mostly dry conditions across the valleys.
Discussion: Temperatures are below freezing across the area at the moment and the current freeze warning continues until 11 AM EDT.
247 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure overhead today shifts east Tuesday.
1138 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 (The rest of tonight) Another clear, but not as cold night in store for the forecast area with light south winds returning to the area as high pressure slides east.
1258 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023 (This evening through Monday) Strong lee trough developing Monday will bring south winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts. The clouds will keep temperatures on the cooler side, with highs in the mid 50s through lower 60s.
124 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure overhead today shifts east Tuesday.
121 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure will build along the east coast the first half of this week.
1201 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) An upper ridge is over the Plains today and will continue to move east tonight. Zonal flow is expected for Arkansas Monday and Tuesday as an upper low moves to the California coast. The high will move east of the state Monday and southerly winds will start to bring more moisture into the state.
144 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure across the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains will result in cool, dry weather to start the work week.
259 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Another sunny yet below normal March day across the area with minimal weather impacts as high pressure ridge axis slides across the area with light north winds becoming easterly this afternoon and evening. Temps will over the past couple days have been slightly warmer than most of the blended guidance, showing a cool bias that perhaps the increasing sun angle and aging snowpack are finally overcoming.
1016 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 (Tonight) Clear and calm conditions in place across the Tennessee Valley late this evening as high pressure at the surface builds in behind a strong cold front. Low temperatures will once again fall into the lower 20s in most locations and would not be shocked to see the mercury drop into the upper Teens in a few sheltered valleys.
and Tuesday A cold front was sagging into the Upper Peninsula of MI and far northwest WI early this morning, and post-frontal clouds were gradually expanding. The Canadian cold front will move slowly through the forecast area today, with a gradual increase in clouds expected. Highs today should range from the lower 30s far north to the lower to middle 40s south. Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower to middle 30s north, and upper 30s to lower 40s in central and east central WI. Once the cold front shifts south of the region, persistent moderate E-NE winds will prevail.
445 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Delmarva Coast to the Lower Mississippi Valley will provide dry and moderately breezy weather with a gradual warming trend for the first half of this week.
1252 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Warmer temperatures are in store for much of the upcoming week. We're thankfully back to quiet weather today and Monday as the trough that brought cold air and shifts away from the area and high pressure edges in. With high pressure sliding east, warm air advection starts to move in and allows for higher high temperatures on Monday, reaching the upper 40s with a few areas threatening 50 degrees. Many models are quite dry in the low levels of the atmosphere likely keeping the area dry with low to mid 20s dew points, but a sprinkle cannot be ruled out. Another stronger wave associated with a warm front moves toward the area Tuesday night.
111 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Aviation -- Mainly dry into Tuesday evening -- High pressure will be sliding by to our south over the next day or so with a weak stationary front slowly sagging into the area from the north. trough during the mid to latter portion of the work week.
1225 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023 (Tonight) Clear and calm conditions in place across the Tennessee Valley late this evening as high pressure at the surface builds in behind a strong cold front. Low temperatures will once again fall into the lower 20s in most locations and would not be shocked to see the mercury drop into the upper Teens in a few sheltered valleys.