Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Thursday) As a 500 mb trough over the central Gulf of Mexico moves east and out of the region, a mid-level ridge of high pressure over the Texas Big Bend will build north and become the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA.
1043 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Cold front exits south. High pressure Thursday.
Showers and storms will be possible again this afternoon into this evening as a back door cold front moves through the region through Thursday.
632 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 High pressure at the surface through the first half of the weekend, but an upper trough tracks through tonight.
450 AM PDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A slight chance of mostly light showers will continue for today as a low pressure system begins to exit California.
The one exception is there may be a little more shear than in previous days as isoheights on the eastern periphery of the blocking high will shift a slight bit further west, and the blocking high itself will weaken slightly. Thursday looks somewhat similar to today, except that the ridge continues weakening.
The regional weather is largely being dictated by a big area of low pressure continuing to spin over southern California.
645 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A cold front will move south through the area today, bringing showers.
Aloft we remain in northwest flow with a low pressure system over the northeast and weak/broad ridging to our west over the Plains.
Strong gusty winds appear to be the main hazard with any storms that can form given the high T/Td spread and DCAPE.
Cooler temperatures and dry conditions through the short term. High pressure is forecast to build southwestward into Wisconsin over the next 24 hours as slightly cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints are advected into the area. Skies will be clear across the remainder of the area tonight allowing for cooler low temperatures on Thursday morning. Low temperatures on Thursday morning will range from the upper 40s in far northwest Illinois to the lower 50s in far southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. Due to the cooler air moving into the area, high temperatures on Thursday will cool slightly with widespread high temperatures in the 70s.
150 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Showers/storms conclude today in the wake of a cold front. High pressure Thursday.
Today's activity will likely be focused along a meridional low level theta-e ridge axis that RAP guidance progs to slowly drift westward from eastern into central North Dakota throughout the afternoon. The positioning of upper level high pressure over the western Dakotas and broad surface ridging over Ontario creates a unique wind profile that may once again cause storm motions to be slow, random, and unusual. The one exception is there may be a little more shear than in previous days as isoheights on the eastern periphery of the blocking high will shift a slight bit further west, and the blocking high itself will weaken slightly. Thursday looks somewhat similar to today, except that the ridge continues weakening.
Beginning to see cumulus develop late this morning over the higher terrain in SE Oklahoma.
A low pressure system is situated over southern California today. By Thursday, this low pressure system will be located over southern Nevada. This low has been responsible for the unsettled weather over the last couple of days and as it slowly moves east will continue the scattered showers and thunderstorms.
(Rest of Today) An area of low pressure over Nova Scotia is forecast to move SW over the next couple of days. A frontal boundary from this low, extending from the VA/MD coast, and across the Ohio River Valley and Missouri River Valley will move across this area tonight.
Rain will continue to push southward across the area through tonight behind the passage of a cold front. Discussion: A cold front has cleared the area and rain will continue for much of the forecast area before ending by tomorrow morning.
There exists a likelihood of an additonal round of showers and thunderstorms late tonight and during the overnight hours which may subsequently advance toward the Lower and Middle Keys. The chance of intermediate showers and isolated thunderstorms across the island chain and the Key West offshore and nearshore waters through this weekend is expected to be facilitated by the upper-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and the associated tropical jet.
228 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Radar shows scattered thunderstorms continuing over the high country with a continued concern for flash flooding over the burn areas. 7 range over the high country this afternoon. Thursday, a broad trough remains off to the west with weak flow aloft. Above normal moisture and marginal instability will support afternoon scattered showers/storms in the high country with a chance for scattered storms to spread onto the adjacent plains/Palmer Divide and eventually eastward. Coverage trends less than Wednesday over the high country with weak synoptic subsidence in place. Highs in the 70s across the plains and 50s/60s for most of the high country.
Afternoon temperatures will again reach the lower 90s across many locations.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) An upper jet supporting low pressure over California is currently directed across northern Mexico with a jet max entering far West Texas. High pressure over Mexico builds north and asserts itself as 500mb heights rise from 580dam today to 584dam Thursday.
1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Showers and storms will be possible again this afternoon into this evening as a back door cold front moves through the region through Thursday.
Expecting to see max temps a degree or two warmer tomorrow, with isolated afternoon shower and thunderstorm development areawide.
(Tomorrow through Wednesday) The large cyclone over the northeastern United States will retrograde a bit on Thursday and Thursday night.
(This afternoon through Thursday Night) A cold front is just starting to push into the northern part of the state and will slowly work south through the region into the evening. A few clouds will likely pop up in the afternoon as troughing digs over the eastern US but no precip is expected for us.
353 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Low pressure over New Brunswick will gradually retrograde west into Downeast Maine through Thursday.
1227 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 (Today and tonight) Showers and isolated thunderstorms that developed on the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico yesterday will continue to slowly move into the South Plains and far southwestern Texas Panhandle early this morning. Aloft, ridging will be increasing today which will help to boost thicknesses a bit hence afternoon temperatures will also be a few degrees warmer. Similar to the past week though moisture remains trapped under the ridge with very little CINH expected by peak afternoon heating.
Temperatures will be split in the region Thursday afternoon, with highs varying from the low 80 in north Georgia the low 90s in central Georgia.
212 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 High pressure at the surface through the first half of the weekend, but an upper trough tracks through tonight.
/12 (Now through Thursday) Our unconventional summertime pattern looks to continue through the near term as a rather large upper level low slowly digs southward along the Atlantic coast. This will keep us on the western periphery of the low leading to northwesterly winds aloft through Thursday. Highs Thursday will be a tick warmer likely climbing just above 90 as storms may be a little lower in coverage.
311 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Rain showers ahead of a cold front have drifted south of the I-64 corridor at this hour (~1830z), and will continue to push south as the front sinks into Tennessee this evening.
Short wave ridging will reside over west Texas through tomorrow, with West Central Texas on the eastern periphery of the ridge. More substantial thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon over the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and the Trans Pecos region. Will keep POPs on the low side though, given coverage uncertainty.
An upper low remains anchored near Maine, with a second anchored near southern California. The local area sits on the southwest side of general troughiness extending from the low over Maine.
The next chance for precipitation will arrive late this weekend as moisture increases ahead of the next cold front. Weak high pressure will provide dry air and below normal temperatures tonight under clearing skies. Blocking upper air pattern continues through the short term period. The closed upper low over New England will provide a weak mid-level disturbance heading south into the lower Great Lakes late on Thursday.
A low chance for severe weather across far western portions of the CWA Our rinse and repeat pattern continues through today with the upper ridge still situated over the southern plains with our area on its eastern periphery. Dew points in the lower 60s and a relatively saturated profile according to model soundings will continue to give these storms the ammo they need to be efficient rainfall producers. Storms are expected to form off of the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon. Otherwise, overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s with light winds outside of any storms.
Otherwise, high pressure builds across the Upper Great Lakes resulting in quieter weather through the end of the week, but a pattern shift with showers and storms will be likely through the weekend. Wagner (Issued 308 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023) Today through Thursday: A slightly cooler and much drier airmass is building into the area this morning, in the wake of the frontal boundary that moved through yesterday. Northeast winds will be breezy at times today, with highs in the mid to upper 70s, cooler near Lake Michigan. High pressure builds southward tonight, with lows expected to fall into the mid 40s in many locations.
A reinforcing shot of cooler, drier air arrives tonight and tomorrow from the next Canadian High pressure to dive into the region. Currently, this area of high pressure is centered over northern Ontario with northerly flow extending all the way down into the Ohio Valley.
Great weather is expected tomorrow with cooler temperatures and low dew points.
222 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 The cold front has slowly pushed westward across the region this afternoon. Plenty of cloud cover has also kept temperatures cooler and made it more difficult to achieve the kind of surface based instability that would be needed for more rigorous convection. Cooler and drier air will push in from the northeast tonight and tomorrow. High pressure begins to move into the area from the north Thursday night allowing winds to diminish under a clear sky.
High pressure over Ontario will continue to produce a northeast wind flow across southwest Lower through tomorrow night.
222 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A cold front will move south into the Carolinas by late afternoon.
We see 850mb temps becoming a couple degrees cooler across eastern areas on Thursday as the center of the upper high that's been over us for several days gradually shifts westward, allowing this "cooler" air to move in. Highs on Thursday look to be a couple degrees cooler than today, but that's about it.
1247 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 (Rest of Today) An area of low pressure over Nova Scotia is forecast to move SW over the next couple of days. A frontal boundary from this low, extending from the VA/MD coast, and across the Ohio River Valley and Missouri River Valley will move across this area tonight.
A cold front will bring non-severe showers and storms this afternoon and evening. A more continuous cloud deck can be seen encroaching from the northeast along a backdoor cold front that is beginning to move through the region with some associated frontal precipitation. Tonight's lows will be in the high 50s out east to mid 60s in the west, as the cold front will still be moving through during the overnight hours. Skies will remain cloudy through tomorrow and will help to drop highs closer to normal, in the low to mid 80s. The cold front and its associated precipitation will still be moving through the area tomorrow, mainly in the central to western portions as it continues southwest. Following the passage of the front, overnight lows will be cooler, with near 50 in the east and low 60s in the west.
A few showers and thunderstorms will occur over the Midsouth tonight, along a slow-moving cold front.
Otherwise a tad cooler by daybreak Thursday with lows from the upper 50s NE Alabama and the Cumberland Plateau to mid 60s south of the Tennessee River.
209 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Key Messages: - Elevated fire weather conditions due to low humidities this afternoon and tomorrow in the low 20s east of the Mississippi River.
1224 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Light rain will accompany a slow-moving cold front this morning, exiting the region by midday. A cooler and much drier airmass then settles in for the remainder of the work week. High pressure will then slowly build across the region through the remainder of the week. Rain Ending: Despite the cold front already pushing south of our forecast counties, a few bands of moderate rainfall developed overnight behind the front. Daily highs will be noticeably cooler today and Thursday, but clearing skies and a high June sun angle should still support afternoon temperatures in the low 80s. Of greater note will be overnight temps, which are forecast to dip into the low 50s. And we may not be done yet tweaking our forecast lows cooler. Temperatures appear to rebound a little warmer to close the week.
Still enough instabilty around and lift from the upper low for scattered activity this evening.
An upper low near the CA/NV border will feed the moisture into the region within a southeast flow aloft.
1217 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A cold front has entered the CWA, stretching located from northeastern MO through south-central IL as of 08z, and will continue to progress slowly southwestward through the remainder of the CWA this morning and into early afternoon. The second period of precip will come in the form of developing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms near the cold front as it passes central and southeastern MO during peak insolation in the afternoon.
1256 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 (Today through Thursday) As a 500 mb trough over the central Gulf of Mexico moves east and out of the region, a mid-level ridge of high pressure over the Texas Big Bend will build north and become the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA.
733 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A cold front will sink south through the area tonight into Thursday.
855 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A cold front will move south into the Carolinas.
807 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A cold front will sink south through the area tonight into Thursday.
848 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 High pressure continues to sag into northern Michigan from the north this evening through tonight.
A cold front has start to push through the state tonight bringing with it an area of mid to high level cloud cover and some isolated rain showers. Temperatures are still in the low 70s areawide, though are expected to drop into the 60s by Thursday morning. Temperatures will be split in the region Thursday afternoon, with highs varying from the low 80 in north Georgia the low 90s in central Georgia.
610 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Low pressure over New Brunswick will gradually retrograde west into Downeast Maine through Thursday.
943 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A cold front will move through central NC this evening. High pressure will settle over the mid-Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. The surface cold front is on the cusp of exiting the far southern counties. Morning lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s, with some lower 50s possible in the typically cooler locations across the northern Piedmont. 75 and high pressure building in, including a reinforcing cold front dropping south from the northern Mid-Atlantic, should lead to mostly sunny skies and dry conditions returning Thursday. Clear skies and surface conditions going calm should allow lows to fall into the low/mid 50s, with typical cooler spots over the Piedmont falling into the upper 40s (around 10 degrees below normal).
Radar shows scattered thunderstorms continuing over the high country with a continued concern for flash flooding over the burn areas. 7 range over the high country this afternoon. Thursday, a broad trough remains off to the west with weak flow aloft. Above normal moisture and marginal instability will support afternoon scattered showers/storms in the high country with a chance for scattered storms to spread onto the adjacent plains/Palmer Divide and eventually eastward. Coverage trends less than Wednesday over the high country with weak synoptic subsidence in place. Highs in the 70s across the plains and 50s/60s for most of the high country.
Rain showers ahead of a cold front have drifted south of the I-64 corridor at this hour (~1830z), and will continue to push south as the front sinks into Tennessee this evening.
A low amplitude ridge will take over the next few days as an upper trough persists over the West Coast.
626 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 The cold front has slowly pushed westward across the region this afternoon. Plenty of cloud cover has also kept temperatures cooler and made it more difficult to achieve the kind of surface based instability that would be needed for more rigorous convection. Cooler and drier air will push in from the northeast tonight and tomorrow. High pressure begins to move into the area from the north Thursday night allowing winds to diminish under a clear sky.
627 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) An upper jet supporting low pressure over California is currently directed across northern Mexico with a jet max entering far West Texas. High pressure over Mexico builds north and asserts itself as 500mb heights rise from 580dam today to 584dam Thursday.
Mostly clear skies will dominate the rest of the evening and overnight hours underneath relatively weak deep layer ridging. Bowlan (Tomorrow through Wednesday) The large cyclone over the northeastern United States will retrograde a bit on Thursday and Thursday night.
The next chance for precipitation will arrive late this weekend as moisture increases ahead of the next cold front. High pressure to the northwest and low pressure centered over Maine will continue to drive northerly flow over the region. Blocking upper air pattern continues through the short term period. The closed upper low over New England will provide a weak mid-level disturbance heading south into the lower Great Lakes late on Thursday.
1048 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A cold front will sink south through the area tonight into Thursday.
The influence of the ridge is aiding by keeping skies mostly clear allowing for some decent daytime heating to occur. With dewpoints holding into the low to mid 50s daily instability surges is expected with CAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg will be more than enough to kick off some afternoon convection, first across the higher terrain then spreading into the valley locations through the late afternoon and early evening. This same pattern should unfold again tomorrow afternoon as convection again begins to initiate across the higher terrain and remains stationary before congealing into a cluster of storms and moving east.
A trough continues to remain settled over California, bringing persistent SW flow for us here in northern Arizona. The trough settled over California will continue to sit in place but gradually weaken, meaning the SW flow we have will gradually weaken with time and translate to slightly lower winds at the surface. As the system fades and gets reabsorbed into the overall flow, another trough is forecast with high confidence to stall over southern California and provide a reinforcing shot of strong SW winds for us.
631 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A few showers and thunderstorms will occur over the Midsouth tonight, along a slow-moving cold front.
609 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Key Messages: - Elevated fire weather conditions due to low humidities this afternoon and tomorrow in the low 20s east of the Mississippi River.
Overnight temps to remain warm and muggy while daytime temps run slightly below normal but the apparent temp will feel much warmer.
This low pressure will weaken and open into a negatively tilted trough as another trough approaches the Pacific Northwest later today into Thursday.
1036 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 High pressure continues to sag into northern Michigan from the north this evening through tonight.
631 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday Night) A cold front is just starting to push into the northern part of the state and will slowly work south through the region into the evening. A few clouds will likely pop up in the afternoon as troughing digs over the eastern US but no precip is expected for us.
535 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Radar shows scattered thunderstorms continuing over the high country with a continued concern for flash flooding over the burn areas. 7 range over the high country this afternoon. Thursday, a broad trough remains off to the west with weak flow aloft. Above normal moisture and marginal instability will support afternoon scattered showers/storms in the high country with a chance for scattered storms to spread onto the adjacent plains/Palmer Divide and eventually eastward. Coverage trends less than Wednesday over the high country with weak synoptic subsidence in place. Highs in the 70s across the plains and 50s/60s for most of the high country.
932 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A cold front will move south into the Carolinas.
Currently - A surface Atlantic ridge reaches westward across the Bahamas and up against the Yucatan Peninsula. Meanwhile, broad deep layered troughing persists across the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will continue to drive gentle primarily southwesterly breezes across the region. The large scale trough to our west will continue support a wide confluent zone across Florida. An Atlantic ridge stretching across the area will result in winds being primarily gentle out of the southwest.
A surface cold front will push further south across the Tennessee River Valley Region overnight. A surface cold front will move into the northern portion of the state early in the morning hours and will progress southward through the day. Look for clouds to increase across the north through the morning hours with increased chances for shower and thunderstorm activity ahead of the approaching cold front. Highs will range from the low 80s far north and northeast to readings in the low 90s south and southeast.
and Friday High pressure will continue building across the western Great Lakes today the build southeast towards the Ohio Valley on Friday. Mostly clear skies and light winds will prevail across the region under this high pressure system. The high will keep a very dry airmass in place across the region, with afternoon relative humidity values falling to 15 to 25 percent across portions of northern and central Wisconsin. Highs on Friday will be a bit warmer in the upper 70s to lower 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Michigan.
349 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 A broad, longwave trough axis is currently situated across the E CONUS with a weak surface boundary draped across the SE, over N GA, AL, MS. While well-removed from our area, Florida remains in the warmer sector, with WSW flow advecting the warm, humid conditions off the Gulf northward towards the boundary. If water temperatures were warmer (at least 82 degrees), there would probably be scattered to numerous convection across the area through midday. Offshore buoys in the deeper water where one would expect to see those warmer temps to support more convection are only showing temps in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
141 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Today the weakening low pressure will track northward over the Great Basin leaving us in southerly flow. Isolated showers and storms are still possible mainly along the Divide, but do not expect much of this activity to reach the lower valleys. Tomorrow will not be much different as the low gradually moves over Idaho.