Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
158 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 Aviation -- Warm and Dry Today -- With the upper level ridge just to the west, temperatures will make a run at 80 today with scattered high clouds and a light south-southwest wind. -- Shower/Thunderstorm Potential Friday -- Moisture and lift associated with the mid-level vorticity/trough out of Texas will initially bring in clouds around 10,000 feet with virga Friday morning. Increasing sfc-850 troughing and convergence by afternoon over southern MI along with late-arriving low-level moisture should then promote surface-based convection to about 15,000 feet according to CAM forecast soundings. Convective updrafts like these that are warmer than -10 C would usually struggle to produce significant rain or lightning potential, though in this case, the shallow convective updrafts would be seeded by ice from the stratiform clouds above 15,000 ft.
At this point, the pattern starts to shift, but in a rather unorthodox way; the upper level low over the northern plains will move westward, back over the Gem State, Utah, and Wyoming by Sat.
244 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023 Scattered showers and storms will continue through the evening as a low pressure system will continue to move northeastward. Temperatures in the high 80s during peak heating hours will promote convection, but with the upper levels recovering from the previous system, storms could struggle to develop.
(This evening through Friday) Upper level low centered over SE Colorado at 18z will continue to drift northward through tonight with dry WSW flow aloft remaining in place over West Texas through midday on Friday. Otherwise dry conditions are expected Friday over the South Plains and the southern TX Panhandle, with one more day of hot temperatures before more widespread rain chances and a period of cooler conditions arrive beginning on Friday night.
253 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure remains over the region, bringing warm, spring- like temperatures and dry weather through the weekend. Beautiful weather will continue through the period, with temperatures warming into the low- to mid-80s tomorrow.
345 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 Another dry and clear evening is in store following seasonably warm daytime highs in the low 80s. Of particular importance to local weather over the next 24-36 hours is the nearly vertically stacked circulation over southwest Colorado and clouds/precipitation along its eastward extending warm frontal slope.
1113 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023 08z surface analysis had low over CO with inverted trough into western SD. Effect of upper low main forecast concern this morning.
A weak upper trough to our east will continue to support isolated convection over central Idaho this afternoon and evening.
Given the low instability, low shear type of setup, showers and thunderstorms will be unorganized in nature and pose little threat in the wind and hail departments.
139 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
Severe storms are expected to continue tonight as the upper low moves northeastward. Williams A rather vigorous storm system will move across the high plains, for this afternoon and this evening.
145 PM PDT Thu May 11 2023 Strengthening high pressure aloft along the West Coast will bring a warming trend through the upcoming weekend.
215 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023 (Issued 215 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023) Tonight through Friday night: Warm and quiet conditions remain into the evening hours as high pressure slowly shifts east through the eastern Great Lakes. We will be monitoring a 500 millibar wave riding northward breaking down the mid level ridging a bit heading later into the night into Friday. Surface ridging starts to re-exert some influence for Friday night so precip coverage should really decrease.
High pressure will build over the region today although a few light showers could develop on higher terrain but bring little in the way of rain. High pressure will build over the region, bringing pleasant weather and warming temperatures. Quiet and cool for the overnight as the ridge continues to strengthen with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. For Friday and Friday night, the ridge will remain overhead. Highs will be a few degrees warmer with readings generally in the 70s.
/LCP/ Today through tonight: Isolated severe storms will be possible today as global guidance continue to highlight a low pressure system, enhanced by a mesoscale convective vortex, slowly shifting northeastward across portions of northern Mississippi. The severe potential should begin to decrease by tonight as subtropical ridging builds from the ENE.
Midday infrared satellite imagery depicted an impressive tightly wound closed cyclone over southeast Colorado, with the expected arc of convection beginning to organize over the northwest zones. This slowing is a typical numerical weather prediction correction for ejecting cyclones. Weak tornadoes and landspouts are anticipated through 7 pm, with the highest risk of a more significant tornado threat focusing on the southeast zones, particularly around 7 pm as the low level jet intensifies. This evening, the surface cyclone will lift from near Liberal to near Wakeeney, in tandem with the parent midlevel cyclone lifting north through eastern Colorado. Closed midlevel cyclone lifts slowly northward through Nebraska Friday as it slowly fills.
122 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023 Today through tonight: Isolated severe storms will be possible today as global guidance continue to highlight a low pressure system, enhanced by a mesoscale convective vortex, slowly shifting northeastward across portions of northern Mississippi. The severe potential should begin to decrease by tonight as subtropical ridging builds from the ENE.
Partly cloudy skies and easterly winds are expected this afternoon with high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s area wide. In the coming days and week ahead, the upper level ridging and high pressure remain in place over the region. Afternoon high temperatures will remain slightly above average, ranging from the upper 80s along the coast to the lower to middle 90s elsewhere. High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern through the rest of this week and into the weekend. An area of high pressure remains over the region.
A few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible until sunset along the trailing axis of the departing trough. Most of the models also indicate an upper ridge will build northward from the Gulf into Southeast Louisiana, which provide subsidence limiting convective development. The farther north the ridge builds, the greater subsidence we'll have.
Minimal changes to the forecast reasoning this morning as high pressure ridging builds in, allowing for a heating trend through the beginning of the weekend to occur. There will be some high thin clouds and some lower level cumulus, especially over the ridges as well as the surrounding mountain ranges this afternoon and early evening.
250 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure remains over the region, bringing warm, spring- like temperatures and dry weather through the weekend. Beautiful weather will continue through the period, with temperatures warming into the low- to mid-80s tomorrow.
However once the higher PWATs arrive that will support deeper/locally heavier showers and the rain should have no problem at all reaching the ground.
The upper trough will weaken on Friday as an upper level ridge begins to build. Highs Friday once again range from the mid 80s to around 90 degrees over much of the region with max heat indices reaching into the low to mid 90s away from the coast.
359 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will drift east of the region tonight. A warm front will lift north into the southern Great Lakes on Friday before becoming stationary.
125 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide warm and dry weather for most of the region today. Increasing chances for showers and storms expected overnight into Friday ahead of warm front. There will be a sharp gradient in dewpoint values across our fa today, with locations near/south of the Tristate observing dewpoints in the lower 60s, whereas our central and west-central OH counties remain in the middle to upper 40s. There will be some increasing mid level clouds from the south today ahead of an advancing warm frontal boundary. Expect scattered showers with northward advancing warm front. Milder temperatures to be observed tonight with lows from the upper 50s northeast to the lower 60s southwest. Will allow pops to increase to categorical across the northwest to north counties along warm front and ahead of a weak surface wave.
414 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide mostly dry weather and warmer temperatures through the end of the week. A mid-level ridge will extend from the Ohio Valley to the Upper Great Lakes tonight. The ridge moves east and flattens across the eastern Great Lakes region Friday. To the north, an approaching cold front moving south from Quebec will increase the chance for a few showers and storms mainly north of Lake Ontario and across the Saint Lawrence Valley. Warm Friday with highs reaching the upper 70s at the higher terrain to the low to mid 80s at lower elevations. Lows will reach the low to mid 50s.
145 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
Key Messages: - While there is a threat of storms tonight, overall, the severe threat remains on the low side. There will be a continued chance of showers/storms tonight, and overall, the severe threat remains mostly on the low side.
Decent looking upper low currently over southeast Colorado will turn northeast over the next couple of days, and weaken as it advects to the northeast.
115 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over eastern CO with perturbed south/southwest flow extending through the Northern Plains. At the surface, inverted trof extends northward into the Black Hills from the parent low over eastern CO.
A transition to more clustered convection is anticipated as the storms translate farther east, with the tornado threat likely dropping off to the east of the Tulsa metro, keeping in mind that any sustained mesocyclone may sustain this potential well into the night. (Tomorrow through Thursday) The upper level low currently located over southeast CO this afternoon will lift slowly northeast into the Central Plains Friday afternoon, with weakening wind fields trending less favorable for organized severe weather.
Going forward, as the low to the south continues to slow shift into the the Central Plains tonight and Friday, the area will continue to see an influx of moist air from the southeast.
310 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 A warm frontal system to the south will lift north and spread showers and a few thunderstorms towards daybreak.
The low does look to be moving a bit slower than was even thought yesterday, and could get hung up some as it tries to move out of the region.
As the upper trough lifts towards western and central Nebraska tonight, a broken line of storms will progress eastwards across Kansas this evening and look to be approaching eastern Kansas and far western Missouri after midnight. The cold front is noted across across southeast Colorado and extending back to the west across northern New Mexico. Models has shifted the track of the low a bit further to the east which will increase severe chances across portions of northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri Friday afternoon and evening. Storms look to fire near the triple point then initiate southwards along the cold front. Temperatures will be much warmer today with the warm front pushing north across Missouri.
This activity will move NNE into the forecast area tonight as a warm front continues to lift northward through the region. High temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 80s with dew points in the middle to upper 60s.
As we get into the nighttime hours, a 40 kt low level jet will become established across Central Texas as a slow moving upper trough swings northward through the state.
An anomalously strong ridge of high pressure will begin building over central Oregon and Washington over the weekend, that will aid in drier conditions, and a warming trend for most of the Northern Rockies.
A cloud shield atop the southern valley associated with earlier activity has helped keep temperatures cooler across the south - and quite honestly, this has been the more difficult part of the forecast as some locations cooled off a good 5 degrees after some light rain and have struggled to rebound.
Temperatures are running warmer than NBM guidance by a few degrees, thus afternoon highs have been reaching 80 degrees or higher at several locations.
The lower levels of the atmosphere remain dry across much of the area, which is helping to dry up any rain as it tries to enter central Indiana from the southwest. During the night as a surface warm front moves across the area and an upper trough approaches, some additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm may develop. With the more humid air moving in, temperatures will be warmer than previous nights, with lows in the 60s. Overall lift looks a little better on Friday with an upper trough, and moisture will be good by then thanks to the warm front.
Less humid conditions will return by midweek behind a cold front.
310 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023 A warm front will lift north across the region late tonight into Friday with humidity returning to central Illinois through the day Friday along with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. The warm front will stall over the region through the weekend with scattered showers and storms possible each day, though plenty of dry hours as well.
214 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will result in dry weather through most of Friday.
At the same time, with the upper level low overhead, a surface boundary situated across the mid/lower MO River Valley, and 0-1 km bulk shear of around 20 kts through that area, there will also be a risk of tornadoes.
1230 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
Tonight and Friday Deep trough continues to sit over the southern Rockies with mid and upper level ridging over the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Winds will turn mainly out of the east, keeping higher dewpoints and cooler temps near Lake Michigan. Cooler readings will prevail near Lake Michigan where onshore flow will keep temps in the 50/60s. Broad upper ridging is expected this weekend, while at the surface a low pressure system will be located across the central Plains with a front extending east through central Iowa and Illinois. The bulk of the rain and thunderstorms this weekend will occur south of the GRB forecast area associated with the low and front.
Temperatures as of 10 AM were in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. Low to mid level ridging remains parked over and just off shore of the Mid-Atlantic States continue to provide easterly breezes across the region. Hi-res cams show this occurring from a possible cloud line along or just downwind of the Lower Keys and possibly the Straits of Florida. An area of high pressure will slide southeast out of the Mid-Atlantic States today and promote freshening easterly breezes across the nearshore and offshore waters this afternoon through Friday night.
823 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 Partly cloudy skies and easterly winds are expected this afternoon with high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s area wide. In the coming days and week ahead, the upper level ridging and high pressure remain in place over the region. Afternoon high temperatures will remain slightly above average, ranging from the upper 80s along the coast to the lower to middle 90s elsewhere. High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern through the rest of this week and into the weekend. An area of high pressure remains over the region.
844 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023 A warm front will lift north across the region late tonight into Friday with humidity returning to central Illinois through the day Friday along with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. The warm front will stall over the region through the weekend with scattered showers and storms possible each day, though plenty of dry hours as well. At the surface, a warm front was analyzed over southern MO. Rising dewpoints and thickening cloud cover will lead to warmer lows than the last several nights, in the mid 60s.
This is in association with a closed low, currently sitting over eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Friday, the low continues to lift to the northeast during the day, with the center coming over the Hastings CWA.
1029 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
848 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
931 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will gradually move east and offshore through Friday.
627 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023 A warm front will lift north across the region late tonight into Friday with humidity returning to central Illinois through the day Friday along with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. The warm front will stall over the region through the weekend with scattered showers and storms possible each day, though plenty of dry hours as well.
1055 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
Model soundings indicate a moistening trend in the lower levels, and low level cloud cover will build through the nighttime hours, particularly along the coast. A mid-level high pressure center (~ H7) will remain stationary over the Florida Big Bend through tomorrow, keeping sensible weather roughly the same across Central Florida to end the work week. For temperatures, morning lows upper 60s/low 70s will jump into the low/mid 80s at the beaches with inland locales 87-90.
/22/ Scattered showers and storms will continue through the evening as a low pressure system will continue to move northeastward. Temperatures in the high 80s during peak heating hours will promote convection, but with the upper levels recovering from the previous system, storms could struggle to develop.
625 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023 (This evening through Friday) Upper level low centered over SE Colorado at 18z will continue to drift northward through tonight with dry WSW flow aloft remaining in place over West Texas through midday on Friday. Otherwise dry conditions are expected Friday over the South Plains and the southern TX Panhandle, with one more day of hot temperatures before more widespread rain chances and a period of cooler conditions arrive beginning on Friday night.
707 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will result in dry weather through Friday.
716 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide mostly dry weather and warmer temperatures through the end of the week. A mid-level ridge will extend from the Ohio Valley to the Upper Great Lakes tonight. The ridge moves east and flattens across the eastern Great Lakes region Friday. To the north, an approaching cold front moving south from Quebec will increase the chance for a few showers and storms mainly north of Lake Ontario and across the Saint Lawrence Valley. Warm Friday with highs reaching the upper 70s at the higher terrain to the low to mid 80s at lower elevations. Lows will reach the low to mid 50s.
We've been under the influence of low pressure offshore for some time now, which resulted in below normal temperatures with plenty of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
636 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure remains over the region, bringing warm, spring- like temperatures and dry weather through the weekend. No big changes with high pressure keeping us mostly sunny and dry. Beautiful weather will continue through the period, with temperatures warming into the low- to mid-80s tomorrow.
730 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure centered far off the NC coast will linger offshore through the end of the week. A cold front and low pressure could lead to more unsettled weather through the first half of the upcoming week. High pressure has become situated far off the NC coast, and the overall pattern will not change much through Friday. Onshore flow will keep high temperatures cooler along the coastal areas while highs along/west of I-95 are expected to reach the mid 80s. Mid level ridge holding on paired with diurnal instability minimum keeps the area rain-free Friday night.
640 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 A warm frontal system to the south will lift north and spread showers and a few thunderstorms towards daybreak.
Some uncertainty with how far northeast this feature will push into the area, and how the high to the north of the region will help develop easterly winds and perhaps limit the advance of the rain showers into the area. Low clouds moving into the area Friday into Friday night with any shower activity should help keep temperatures cooler. Wood (Issued 215 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023) Tonight through Friday night: Warm and quiet conditions remain into the evening hours as high pressure slowly shifts east through the eastern Great Lakes. We will be monitoring a 500 millibar wave riding northward breaking down the mid level ridging a bit heading later into the night into Friday. Surface ridging starts to re-exert some influence for Friday night so precip coverage should really decrease.
655 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure remains over the region, bringing warm, spring- like temperatures and dry weather through the weekend. No big changes with high pressure keeping us mostly sunny and dry. Beautiful weather will continue through the period, with temperatures warming into the low- to mid-80s tomorrow.
517 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over eastern CO with perturbed south/southwest flow extending through the Northern Plains. At the surface, inverted trof extends northward into the Black Hills from the parent low over eastern CO.
940 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure centered far off the NC coast will linger offshore through the end of the week. A cold front and low pressure could lead to more unsettled weather through the first half of the upcoming week. High pressure has become situated far off the NC coast, and the overall pattern will not change much through Friday. Onshore flow will keep high temperatures cooler along the coastal areas while highs along/west of I-95 are expected to reach the mid 80s. Mid level ridge holding on paired with diurnal instability minimum keeps the area rain-free Friday night.
Two main areas of development will be in our western CWA sections along a trough axis and the east coast seabreeze as it moves into our eastern counties later in the day. Based on the latest model guidance I expanded the higher rain chances throughout the area with most locations at 50-60%.
722 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023 Scattered showers and storms will continue through the evening as a low pressure system will continue to move northeastward. Temperatures in the high 80s during peak heating hours will promote convection, but with the upper levels recovering from the previous system, storms could struggle to develop.
High pressure building into the area will bring warming temperatures through the weekend.
755 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
705 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 Aviation weather remains solidly VFR tonight and Friday while reflecting a transition from firmly rooted high pressure to greater influence from the low pressure complex across the Plains. Surface wind develops a steadier SE component earlier in the afternoon compared to recent days as a warm front organizes from the central Plains through IL/IN/OH. Another dry and clear evening is in store following seasonably warm daytime highs in the low 80s. Of particular importance to local weather over the next 24-36 hours is the nearly vertically stacked circulation over southwest Colorado and clouds/precipitation along its eastward extending warm frontal slope.