Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Windy and cooler Sunday. Meanwhile, an associated cold front will advance into the mid-MO Valley tonight. An associated cold front will sweep through the area with northwest winds gusting to 35 to 45 mph. Temperatures Sunday will be affected by clouds and areas of precipitation with highs in the low to mid 70s.
1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 (Today through Sunday) Mid-level ridging will remain parked over the state of Texas through the weekend. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
240 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure will provide fair weather through tonight. A warm front will bring some showers in from the west later Sunday.
Additional storms are forming near the cold front as an inverted trough is beginning to form ahead of the norther wave/mid level jet in Canada. Large scale mid/upper level pattern will tend to be dominated by relatively flat NW zonal flow in our region as a result of broad ridging in the southwest US and a more elongated Hudson Bay low in Canada. Due to the flow and limited southerly return before each cold front (and tendency for moisture return to be from drier parts of Canada) the potential for wetting precipitation (0.
213 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure will provide fair weather through tonight. A warm front will bring some showers in from the west later Sunday.
428 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will drift across the forecast area tonight.
(This evening through Sunday) High pressure over the northern Gulf will put central Alabama in westerly flow through the rest of the weekend.
The thunderstorm complex will essentially reinforce a cold front moving through the area on Sunday with the aid of a mid-level low moving across the upper mid-west.
107 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2023 Strengthening high pressure over the Southwest, will keep the weather inland rather hot this weekend, while a developing eddy moderates areas closer to the coast.
122 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon will drift across the forecast area tonight then exit across New England on Sunday.
At the surface, a low pressure system is currently situated over south central South Dakota, and is responsible for the ongoing precipitation across the area. As this low drifts slowly to the east, will continue to see showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight. The low will slide southeast of the region on Sunday, with the precipitation coming to an end from west to east. High pressure will move in Sunday night, with dry conditions expected.
Sunday should be noticeably cooler as the storms will exit along a cold front and winds through the boundary layer will be north to northwest. Lows should fall into the low to mid 60s.
150 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure will slide east of the region tonight.
Given this moist airmass and high (11,024 ft) freezing levels, thunderstorms will once again be efficient rain producers. Consulting the NBM probabilities for greater than 1/2 inch of rainfall, the highest chances (46 percent) are across north- central Wyoming and extreme southeast Montana.
912 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 Mostly drier conditions continue through Sunday, thanks to weak high pressure from the northeast. Mostly clear skies and calm winds tonight with patchy fog in the morning and min temps in the low 70s. Highs in the low 90s Sunday with some humidity in the low level onshore flow. Weak upper low over the Midwest transitions into an open wave and moves through the southern Great Lakes region. This applies a broad trough into the Mid South and mid-Atlantic states, but doesn't really touch the local forecast area.
The Florida Keys are located between two high-pressure areas. There is a weak col region located between the areas of high pressure. The daytime high temperatures in the Florida Keys reached the lower to mid 90s. The overnight temperatures are expected to drop to the low to mid 80s. Weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward across the Bahamas will maintain light mainly southeast breezes across the Florida Keys nearshore and offshore waters.
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure will provide fair weather through tonight. A warm front will bring some showers in from the west later Sunday.
519 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure will cross the region tonight through Sunday night.
703 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 Upper low continues to move east-southeast this evening. Additional storms are forming near the cold front as an inverted trough is beginning to form ahead of the norther wave/mid level jet in Canada. Large scale mid/upper level pattern will tend to be dominated by relatively flat NW zonal flow in our region as a result of broad ridging in the southwest US and a more elongated Hudson Bay low in Canada. Due to the flow and limited southerly return before each cold front (and tendency for moisture return to be from drier parts of Canada) the potential for wetting precipitation (0. An upper low will pass to our south overnight and into Sunday morning, which will gradually shift the winds more out of the north.
As the low creeps east tonight, rain chances will end across much of south central and should slowly taper off over the James River Valley by tomorrow morning. With the low pressure in South Dakota continuing to move off to the east, rain rates in the southwest has decreased drastically. The highest rainfall rates currently are in the southeast where clusters of thunderstorms have been going on all day. We have reduced the high temperatures today since the north stayed in the clouds longer, and the NBM temps from this morning were too high. The southeast could be a little breezy with the pressure gradient force still existing from the low.
An active pattern is expected for the upcoming week, with temperatures a bit cooler than average. A little bit of drizzle/light showers have been observed along an associated trough just south of I-72 to near Taylorville, but the bulk of the rain is now off in Indiana. Still, the latest mesoanalysis has 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with 20-30kts of effective shear, with the highest shear near the IL/IN border. The next system to affect the area is an upper level low that will move southeast from SD on Sunday.
(The rest of tonight) After a much cooler and showery day across much of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon, focus will shift to the chances for storms to affect the region later tonight into tomorrow morning. A few elevated warm advection storms could also develop ahead of the main line on the nose of the low level jet, mainly north of Highway 412. The thunderstorm complex will essentially reinforce a cold front moving through the area on Sunday with the aid of a mid-level low moving across the upper mid-west.
554 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Upper ridge centered over SE NM and Far W TX today with a 597 high with a broad ridge extending from SE CA to MS. The high strengthens a bit Sunday. Sunday will be a degree or so warmer so will issue another one for the tomorrow afternoon with widespread 105 degrees or more for the plains and 100 or so for the mountains.
-Coulston 540 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023 (06/00Z TAF Period) A low pressure system will linger over the Pacific Northwest and east across Western Montana through at least 07/00Z.
554 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Upper ridging and hot conditions continue.
Temperatures remain on track for another warmer than normal night. We are advertising a 'Marginal' risk for severe mainly along the Highway 82 corridor.
731 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure will provide fair weather through tonight. A warm front will bring some showers in from the west later Sunday.
644 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 (This evening through Sunday) High pressure over the northern Gulf will put central Alabama in westerly flow through the rest of the weekend.
Saturday and Sunday A trof continues to move through northern Nevada resulting in thunderstorms and continued rain showers in Elko county today.
The cold front will be nudging south over the Tri-State are tonight helping the storms as they move through. Tomorrow the cut-off low aloft is expected to move across the Central Plains towards the Mississippi River Basin while the upper ridge strengthens over the Southwest CONUS to the Central High Plains. The Tri-State area will be under northwest flow aloft as the upper ridge remains over the Southwest CONUS and Southern Plains mainly.
512 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure will provide fair weather through tonight. A warm front will bring some showers in from the west later Sunday.
Additional storms are forming near the cold front as an inverted trough is beginning to form ahead of the norther wave/mid level jet in Canada. Large scale mid/upper level pattern will tend to be dominated by relatively flat NW zonal flow in our region as a result of broad ridging in the southwest US and a more elongated Hudson Bay low in Canada. Due to the flow and limited southerly return before each cold front (and tendency for moisture return to be from drier parts of Canada) the potential for wetting precipitation (0. An upper low will pass to our south overnight and into Sunday morning, which will gradually shift the winds more out of the north.
Locally hot conditions will occur across interior valleys this weekend, followed by slightly cooler conditions during much of the upcoming work week. Inland temperatures has been running up to 5 degrees warmer compared to yesterday's reading. Additional, the marine layer will become shallower and the low- level inversion will strengthen.
659 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure will provide fair weather through tonight. A warm front will bring some showers in from the west later Sunday.
558 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Concur with deterministic output that the upper level high pressure system will remain over the region during the period, and that PWAT values will remain slightly below normal, thus precipitation not anticipated.
722 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 Mostly drier conditions continue through Sunday, thanks to weak high pressure from the northeast. Mostly clear skies and calm winds tonight with patchy fog in the morning and min temps in the low 70s. Highs in the low 90s Sunday with some humidity in the low level onshore flow. Weak upper low over the Midwest transitions into an open wave and moves through the southern Great Lakes region. This applies a broad trough into the Mid South and mid-Atlantic states, but doesn't really touch the local forecast area.
and Monday Mainly dry weather is expected today into Monday as two low pressure systems track just south of the area. northeast WI will remain on the northern periphery two low pressure systems. Easterly flow and clouds will hold temps pretty close to normal and near or a couple/three degrees cooler than yesterday. NBM/CONSALL have been doing very well with temps, so will stick with a blend of those for highs, which have readings climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s, slightly cooler near the shore of Lake Michigan due to an onshore flow. the second low pressure system will push across northern IL and into Lower MI as the upper trough swings across the Great Lakes.
Much of the lower elevations and river valleys can expect temperatures between 105 and 114. The higher elevations can expect temperatures of 95 to 105. On the other hand, this more substantial system brings a slight chance of thunderstorms across the higher elevations into the southeast New Mexico plains and northern Permian Basin.
340 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 Other than a few lingering showers in the southeast, look for a mainly dry day with slightly warmer temperatures. The northerly flow across the east may bring some increased winds at times, although the building ridge aloft should help limit conditions becoming breezy today. Look for mainly clear skies and cooler temperatures in the 50s.
1222 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Upper ridge centered over SE NM and Far W TX today with a 597 high with a broad ridge extending from SE CA to MS. The high strengthens a bit Sunday. Sunday will be a degree or so warmer so will issue another one for the tomorrow afternoon with widespread 105 degrees or more for the plains and 100 or so for the mountains.
1008 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 (Issued 1008 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023) Low pressure passing through Central IL and IN will bring east winds to the state through tonight. Patterson (Issued 336 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023) Tonight through Sunday night: Diurnal cumulus and a few showers in far southern portions of the area are expected through the remainder of the afternoon hours today, with temperatures approaching highs in the lower 80s.
Patchy fog holds through sunrise, with temperatures bottoming out generally in the mid and upper 50s while some cooler spots in the interior-western UP fall back into the upper 40s. Any rain showers today should hold off until later this afternoon as the northern trough moves through. Additional troughing will be located over northern portions of MB/ON. At the start of the period, rainfall may be ongoing over northern MN as enhanced deep-layer moisture interacts with a lower level convergence axis that extends northward from the Plains low and links up with a weak cold front extending southward from the northern Canada low.
The cold front will be nudging south over the Tri-State are tonight helping the storms as they move through. Tomorrow the cut-off low aloft is expected to move across the Central Plains towards the Mississippi River Basin while the upper ridge strengthens over the Southwest CONUS to the Central High Plains.
1115 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure will approach and cross the region overnight through Sunday night.
An active pattern is expected for the upcoming week, with temperatures a bit cooler than average. A little bit of drizzle/light showers have been observed along an associated trough just south of I-72 to near Taylorville, but the bulk of the rain is now off in Indiana. Still, the latest mesoanalysis has 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with 20-30kts of effective shear, with the highest shear near the IL/IN border. The next system to affect the area is an upper level low that will move southeast from SD on Sunday. Showers and storms will likely linger late Sunday night and Monday morning behind the main line as the upper low slowly drifts east. Knutsvig A few showers will likely linger into Monday across the area as the upper low drifts east.
222 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 Summertime high pressure continued to expand across extreme southeast Texas and much of southwest Louisiana.
350 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023 A trough may drive a few showers and clouds eastward toward the area early this evening. Bermuda high pressure will become dominant as high pressure extending in from the northeast weakens further. High pressure extending in from the northeast will weaken further as trough shifts eastward, possibly driving a few showers towards the area later today. Overall, models showing mainly zonal flow with minor perturbation moving east in deep westerly flow aloft driving some convection along weak trough to the west.
The high resolution models keep the best convective coverage over the southern CWA with a less batch to run across the CWA northern border. So will go with the highest pops in those areas. The northeast looks pretty stable with the cooler airmass in place. The eastern plains will be more stable into Sunday evening as cooler air continue to push in from the northeast. There will be plentiful moisture on the plains and building instability and a theta-e ridge nosing northward. MLCAPE of 800-1800 J/kg, with the highest values expected to set up on the eastern plains.
A progressive west/northwest mid/upper flow aloft will persist through Monday, while weak mid- level warm air advection across the high plains may allow for some widely scattered elevated showers/storms to develop Tonight but this activity should remain west of the area.
1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 (The rest of tonight) After a much cooler and showery day across much of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon, focus will shift to the chances for storms to affect the region later tonight into tomorrow morning. A few elevated warm advection storms could also develop ahead of the main line on the nose of the low level jet, mainly north of Highway 412.
We shift towards a weather pattern that will bring slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances every 2 days through the upcoming week. Generally though severe weather risks will remain on the lower side through the upcoming week. We should continue to see scattered slow moving showers develop through the morning as the upper low pivots towards southeastern South Dakota. TODAY: The aforementioned upper low will drift into Northwest Iowa later this morning. Less instability in the NW quadrant of the upper trough, so will keep thunder more limited and this should keep rainfall rates down.
Slow-moving high pressure is just north of Lk Huron, drifting eastward. 500mb heights will be somewhat slow to rise here, even as the upper trof axis heads downstream.
With upper level ridging sliding eastward across the northern Montana border, a northwesterly upper level flow guides cooler air southeastward into our region allowing temperatures to trend cooler than normal. - Fogleman The aforementioned upper closed low opens into a wave late Sunday and slides southeastward Monday.
The Fargo-Moorhead metro has seen some of the highest rainfall totals of the evening, with 2-3 inches reported. Upper low continues to move east-southeast this evening. Additional storms are forming near the cold front as an inverted trough is beginning to form ahead of the norther wave/mid level jet in Canada. Large scale mid/upper level pattern will tend to be dominated by relatively flat NW zonal flow in our region as a result of broad ridging in the southwest US and a more elongated Hudson Bay low in Canada. Due to the flow and limited southerly return before each cold front (and tendency for moisture return to be from drier parts of Canada) the potential for wetting precipitation (0. Looking into Sunday, improvements are expected as a cold front pushes through.
(Today and tonight) Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of this morning northeast of a ridge. An upper jet will slightly shift southward by this afternoon and a weak accompanying surface cold front will do likewise. This combined with easterly winds will bring a slight reprieve in high temperatures for the far southwestern Panhandle with highs in the low 90s.
Most areas will see afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 90s, though far SE OK will still be quite warm with highs near 100.
1159 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Upper ridging and hot conditions continue.
202 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 The upper low currently over southeast SD will continue to slide toward the southeast through today. As the low moves further away, dry conditions are then expected for tonight and Monday. H850/H925 temps suggest relatively mild highs in the 70s to around 80 both today and Monday, but perhaps a bit warmer overall for Monday. Clouds will be the last to leave the eastern CWA this afternoon, thus a tad cooler those areas for highs today.
1044 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 Key Messages: - The low pressure track continues to shift southwest and south away from the area late tonight into Monday. The highest probabilities (40-60%) of up to an inch of rain is from Austin MN to Oelwein IA. 00z runs by shifting the upper level low track further and further south. The probabilities of rainfall totals of up to 1 inch is the highest (40-60%) from Austin, MN to Oelwein, IA.
In general, most of the island chain has remained dry, aside from a brief shower earlier in the night across the Lower Keys. Over the past few hours, ridging in the western North Atlantic has gained some ground westward across the forecast area, but the pressure gradient has remained weak as of now. The aforementioned ridge will continue to slowly build westward through tonight, so this afternoon will be the last day (for now) we see of the weak flow that we have gotten used to this summer.
/Issued 1217 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023/ /Through Monday Night/ Hot conditions to persist across the region as an upper-level ridge remains centered across west Texas and New Mexico. Subsidence associated with the ridge to bring triple digit temperatures to much of central and north-central Texas today. As the upper- level ridge retrogrades west into the desert southwest, northwest flow aloft to increase along the northern periphery of the ridge across north Texas allowing for increased instability and slightly better rain chances on Monday, especially along and near the stalled frontal boundary. High temperatures across central Texas closer to the center of the ridge axis will persist around 105 degrees. Otherwise, slightly cooler temperatures in the mid to upper 90s expected across north Texas on Monday afternoon due to scattered clouds and increased mixing.
A northward trend was noted in some guidance late tonight suggesting the deformation zone on the north side of the low may eventually win out and provide the IN-MI line with a period of steady rain. Broad troughing aloft will keep temperatures a touch below normal through the week.
Low pressure over the Pacific Northwest and moisture from the east will continue to work together today to bring widespread rain to the Northern Rockies. As the PNW low moves east, another trough of low pressure descends along the Canadian coast.
This will coincide with the passage of the mid-level trough to the east and the arrival of the modest synoptic cold front. The surface MSLP ridge axis will extend into Oklahoma later today finally bringing marginally drier air Monday.
1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Concur with deterministic output that the upper level high pressure system will remain over the region during the period, and that PWAT values will remain slightly below normal, thus precipitation not anticipated.
Key Messages: - Cooler today with gusty northwest winds.
Upper low and associated rain continues to exit the region with lingering rain showers expected over scentral SD through morning. Main upper trough and associated lift will then spread east over the region Tues, supporting more chances for sct showers and TS then. VFR cigs and vsbys are in store through the valid terminal forecast period as low pressure conts to move east away from forecast area.
1228 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: Severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across the area with the highest chances across portions of south-central Kansas. The mid-level thermal gradient and PWAT axis will generally be overlapped across the same areas, so the general thinking is that an MCS will roll off the high plains and potentially move into portions of south-central Kansas but mainly stay southwest of the Wichita metro (still cannot rule out severe weather in Wichita tonight, but the highest confidence is southwest of the metro). Much cooler air will be primary headline for Sunday and Monday with afternoon highs across the area are only expected to be in the mid to upper 80s.
8 inches remains through Monday, although the low center tracks south of Lower Michigan.
129 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023 High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather through Sunday.
(Today through Monday) The subtropical ridge will remain in place through the short term period, generally centered across west Texas and southern New Mexico. If anything, the center of the ridge appears shift slightly east through Monday which would result in temperatures increasing a degree or so on average across the CWA as well as a slight lowering of dewpoints.