Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Isolated showers and cooler temperatures into early this week. _______________________________________________________________ Short Term Discussion: Clouds and scattered showers continue to advect around mid/upper low pressure (centered in southeastern ND), trekking from northwest to southeast over our forecast area. Severe weather is not expected; can't rule out a non-supercell funnel or two as we sit under this upper low. Cloud cover prohibits efficient radiational cooling, so expect lows in the lower to mid 50s.
Cloud, wrapping up into the low in this FA, that had seen a few breaks (mostly outside this FA), and some developing instability earlier. The upper low is also overhead, with water vapor imagery showing multiple little embedded waves rotating around the low. The low will slowly track into Minnesota Monday into Monday night, finally loosening its grip on this FA.
07/mb (Now through Monday) Upper level ridging continues today with a continued dry airmass. The pattern breaks down on Monday with a trough developing over the area.
131 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Strengthening upper level ridge will bring dry & warmer conditions for the next couple of days. The stratus that has lingered for much of the day in our far east is associated with dew points still in the lower 50s.
1158 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front has moved through much of the area, much drier air is filtering into northwest Oklahoma, and the overnight convection has generally shifted east of the forecast area this morning. This low will translate slowly east today allowing the front to shift south across western north Texas today to the west of the low, but likely keep the front stalled near the Red River of south central and southeastern Oklahoma.
159 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region today. Chances for rain will increase into this week as an upper level low slowly moves east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. High pressure will extend from the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley today, while the remnants of Ophelia affect the Mid-Atlantic. Highs will range from the lower 70s north and east to the upper 70s southwest. Moisture still somewhat limited despite increasing in advance of the lumbering upper level low that pivots toward the region.
A return to cooler conditions will occur by mid- week as high pressure builds southward east of the Appalachians. Upper level troughing remains over the area in the near term. 850mb temperatures are around 3 degrees warmer than yesterday, meaning temps should be significantly warmer with highs in the mid 80s. Monday remains dry as weak high pressure will still be across the area.
As a potent low approaches the Pac NW tomorrow, expect H5 heights to increase over our area allowing for temps to continue their upward surge and we will likely flirt with 80 degrees for daytime highs in the lower valleys.
1233 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 (Today through Monday) Mid-level ridging parked over northern Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across Deep South Texas through Monday. The subsidence from the mid-level ridge should allow for drier air to mix down and keep the humidity down. Low temperatures are expected to be in the 70s with a few places in the lower 80s for tonight.
Warmer today with the rain having moved out. Highs will be much warmer without the rain and NE flow. Monday is expected to be the warmest day of the week as high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard beyond Monday. The backdoor cold front will be crossing the region late Monday and Monday night. Expect partly sunny skies with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Lows Monday night are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s. In the wake of the exiting back-door cold front that will stall over Florida, Canadian high pressure extending down the Atlantic Seaboard will bring genuinely Fall weather to central NC to close out the month of September and for the first full week of Fall. Lows 55-60, with the typically cooler outlying areas cooling down into the lower 50s.
126 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Strong subsidence in between the lows to our west and east has severely limited any diurnal cu development thus far early this afternoon despite modest mid-level moisture in place. A blocked upper level pattern exists over eastern North America involving two closed low circulations and a tenuous ridge located between them directly over the central Great Lakes. The ridge has been locally accentuated by radial subsidence occuring at the periphery of each of the closed lows. closed low weakens further and the wavelength of the circulation broadens into the state. Models show residual stability holding in the low to midlevels so no concern whatsoever on any rain shower activity today. 5 kft agl and that westerlies finally undercut the ridge through the Ohio River Valley.
1237 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 (Rest of Today) High pressure remains in place over central Tennessee southward into northern Alabama. This is helping to keep the MCS that developed over Arkansas and northern Louisiana well southwest of the area along a warm front.
901 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Upper low continues to spin with the center between KFAR and KFFM. A slow moving upper level low will continue to meander around the ND/SD/MN border.
707 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through tonight. Chances for rain will increase into this week as an upper level low slowly moves east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. High pressure was located over the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley early this afternoon, while the remnants of Ophelia were located over the Mid-Atlantic states.
632 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 (This evening through Monday) Today, the low pressure off the east coast will continue to move to the north. Flow over Alabama will remain out of the north through the early afternoon, influenced by this low. As this low strengthens and the low over the east coast continues north, flow will transition to out of the northwest and then the west. Temperatures on Monday should be a couple of degrees above normal, but a few degrees cooler than today with that cloud cover expected over the area.
Stacked low pressure over Minnesota will slowly migrate southeast through the upper midwest region and eventually into the northern Ohio Valley and far southern lower MI by midweek as it is steered around blocking high pressure centered over Quebec.
The highest wind gust was recorded at the Key West International Airport with a speed of 59 mph! In addition to the strong winds, heavy rain fell across the Lower Keys, where 1 to 2 inches quickly fell within an hour's time. That said, there is an upper level trough near the Yucatan Peninsula that is in the process of becoming cutoff. From synopsis: a disorganized trough near the Yucatan Channel will migrate westward over the next few days as Atlantic ridging builds westward into Florida.
All models continue to show a ridge of high pressure aloft translating eastward into the Front Range tonight and Monday. This ridge axis is then expected to amplify northward late on Monday and stall briefly before moving out into the Great Plains towards the middle of the week.
922 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 A cold front will approach from the north this evening and cross the region tonight.
615 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 A cold front will approach from the north this evening and cross the region tonight.
516 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia will exit tonight but flow will transition towards the next upper level trough through the end of the week. Once this tapers off, the moisture, light wind, and the low-level stable/nearly isothermal layer will promote at least patchy areas of fog/mist through the nighttime hours and into Monday morning. Monday will see the region nestled between an upper Mississippi River Valley trough and the Ophelia remnants under weak flow.
742 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 A nearly stationary 500 mb closed low continues to spin to our west with an occluded front pivoting into Gogebic County. There will be little advancement in a mid-level closed low on Monday due to blocking from high pressure centered over Hudson Bay. So, the low will just slowly drop southward across Minnesota and into Iowa.
901 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through tonight. Chances for rain will increase into this week as an upper level low slowly moves east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. High pressure remains northeast of the Ohio Valley overnight while the remnants of a tropical system spin over the Mid Atlantic. Northeasterly flow around the high will help usher in some low level moisture from the tropical remnants through the night.
625 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 (Tonight) High pressure will continue to hold on over the area tonight. However, a thicker area of mid to high clouds will move from western Mississippi into northwestern Alabama along a pre-frontal trough axis around or after midnight. With some moisture advection expected ahead of this pre-frontal trough axis and the expected cloud cover overnight, lows should be a bit warmer west of the I-65 corridor.
As the vertically stacked low pressure centered over west central MN circulates, dynamically driven showers and thunderstorms have started to affect the Brainerd Lakes Region.
537 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Quiet and benign conditions have settled in across the West Slope this afternoon thanks to a building ridge of high pressure. A digging jet ahead of the incoming Pacific Northwest storm will drive height rises over the next 24 hours, thereby amplifying the ridge overhead.
A return to cooler conditions will occur by mid- week as high pressure builds southward east of the Appalachians. Monday remains dry as weak high pressure will still be across the area.
Increasing moisture will keep lows a few degrees warmer tonight, particularly in NE FL where lows will be in the mid/upper 60s while lower 60s will be common across inland SE GA. (Through Tonight) Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to suppress chances for precipitation Tonight.
Outside of showers, conditions across the Mid-South on Monday will be slightly cooler as afternoon temperatures climb into the low to mid 80s.
325 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Quiet and benign conditions have settled in across the West Slope this afternoon thanks to a building ridge of high pressure. A digging jet ahead of the incoming Pacific Northwest storm will drive height rises over the next 24 hours, thereby amplifying the ridge overhead.
742 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia will exit tonight but flow will transition towards the next upper level trough through the end of the week. Once this tapers off, the moisture, light wind, and the low-level stable/nearly isothermal layer will promote at least patchy areas of fog/mist through the nighttime hours and into Monday morning. Monday will see the region nestled between an upper Mississippi River Valley trough and the Ophelia remnants under weak flow.
Easterly outflow from the high will persist tonight as a 5 knot east wind is expected. High clouds associated with the upper low to our west in the Northern Plains will continue to push through the area tonight keeping skies partly to mostly cloudy. KGRR VWP is showing hits between 17,000 and 19,000 feet, so the high clouds are likely cirrostratus in nature.
Quiet spell continues with warmer temperatures and breezy afternoon winds.
637 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to rotate around the low pressure system over the southern Red River Valley. Cloud, wrapping up into the low in this FA, that had seen a few breaks (mostly outside this FA), and some developing instability earlier. The upper low is also overhead, with water vapor imagery showing multiple little embedded waves rotating around the low. The low will slowly track into Minnesota Monday into Monday night, finally loosening its grip on this FA.
515 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2023 20Z upper level analysis has deep closed low across western Minnesota, large trof off the West Coast, with ridging in between across the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure resides across the northern Rockies. Closed upper low over western Minnesota will continue to slowly shift east, as the ridge over the Rockies builds into the forecast area. Persistent ridge builds across the central CONUS for Monday through late in the week, with dry and warm conditions expected. As upper ridge shifts a little further east late in the week, and the Northern Plains falls under southwest upper flow, chances for precipitation will increase as weak disturbances eject out of the developing western trof into the Northern Plains.
A slow moving upper level low will continue to meander around the ND/SD/MN border.
505 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 A nearly stationary 500 mb closed low continues to spin to our west with an occluded front pivoting into Gogebic County. There will be little advancement in a mid-level closed low on Monday due to blocking from high pressure centered over Hudson Bay. So, the low will just slowly drop southward across Minnesota and into Iowa.
Weak high pressure continues to the north providing a light onshore wind component. Sky conditions generally PCloudy with warmer overnight lows in the L70s forecast, perhaps some M70s along the Space and Treasure coasts, and U60s across north Lake and northwest Volusia counties. Southwest flow aloft and weak high pressure will remain in place across the Florida Peninsula. Overnight mins will continue to trend warmer in the L-M70s. Weak pressure gradient in place with weak high pressure to the north and light onshore winds generally 5-10 kts.
Warm and dry conditions will continue through Monday with the upper level ridge axis to the east. The approaching upper level low from the west will keep the southwesterly flow in place allowing temperature to warm about 10 degrees above normal on Monday. In addition, increased upper level flow will also bring breezy southerly winds, especially to the higher terrain, Monday afternoon.
(Tonight) Mid/high clouds continue to spread into the mid TN Valley from the west this Sat evening, as high pressure remains layered from the OH Valley southward into parts of the SE region.
829 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 The remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia will exit tonight but flow will transition towards the next upper level trough through the end of the week. Monday will see the region nestled between an upper Mississippi River Valley trough and the Ophelia remnants under weak flow.
905 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 High pressure builds in from the north for the early to middle portions of the week. Temperatures will remain nearly steady in the low to mid 60s.
950 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 (Issued 945 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023) The low pressure area over Minnesota remains fairly stagnant with the corresponding upper low allowing for some PVA to bring a few showers and weak thunderstorms to the region. Southeast winds will persist across the state as the low pressure moves northeast and the high pressure system over the Hudson Bay area remains near stagnant.
1231 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023 A nearly stationary 500 mb closed low continues to spin to our west with an occluded front pivoting into Gogebic County. There will be little advancement in a mid-level closed low on Monday due to blocking from high pressure centered over Hudson Bay. So, the low will just slowly drop southward across Minnesota and into Iowa. Tuesday, as the low shifts farther southeast into Illinois, rain chances will become more widespread across southern portions of Upper Michigan as well.
A few stray showers are lingering across western Kentucky early this morning, but these are quickly dissipating as H5 ridging increases from west to east. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s. The aforementioned boundary will wash out tonight, and low temperatures will dip into the lower 60s under mostly clear skies. The driver for this will a developing omega pattern across the CONUS, with H5 troughing increasing over the Ohio Valley. A slow-moving upper- level low will develop under this trough and shift south and east toward the forecast area. Low temperatures will again fall into the lower 60s.
The upper low moves southeast, bringing deeper moisture and some divergence aloft on Tuesday with rain chances increasing.
Northwest flow dominates the pattern across the central Plains with an upper low parked over Minnesota. There is a very small chance (~10%) for some showers to develop late Tuesday afternoon and evening as the upper low pushes a frontal boundary through eastern Kansas, but is not likely as better forcing and lift remains off to the east.
(Today and tonight) Northwest flow aloft will continue over the region with WV imagery showing the upper level low over the upper Midwest and the upper level high over Mexico. Tonight a cooler air mass will remain locked in place with overnight lows expected in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Discussion: Currently a mild night with the low clouds across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia remaining stubborn. Temperatures today will once again be similar to what we've experienced the past several days with northeast TN and southwest VA possibly getting a few degrees warmer if the clouds burn off and the sunshine is able to make it to the surface.
These features will meander around the southern Gulf of Mexico and slowly slide west this week, while surface ridging holds across northern Florida.
A weakening closed low will move slowly southeastward toward Indiana today. Coverage and intensity should be quite limited and will hold probabilities on the low end tonight, confining to western Indiana.
236 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over western MN with a ridge across Hudson Bay and Ontario. The closed low over MN heads slowly northeast to central MN by 00z Tue. Another round of pops will continue in the far west today as the low remains off to the west of the area with some moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence across the far west. There will be little advancement in a mid-level closed low on Monday due to blocking from high pressure centered over Hudson Bay. So, the low will just slowly drop southward across Minnesota and into Iowa. Tuesday, as the low shifts farther southeast into Illinois, rain chances will become more widespread across southern portions of Upper Michigan as well.
132 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023 High pressure will remain across the area through Tuesday. Broad low pressure will form offshore by mid week and could bring unsettled weather to the area through the end of the week. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Northern stream blocking pattern will remain in place across eastern Canada, Great Lakes and New England regions at the start of the short-term period, with an anchoring cut- off low in the upper midwest that will eventually migrate into the lower Great Lakes and weaken. At the surface, strong eastern Canadian high pressure is expected to wedge southward through the Central Appalachians and eventually into northern Georgia, particularly Tuesday onward, and driving cooler air into the region for the mid to late week timeframe.
1100 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 (Tonight) Mid/high clouds continue to spread into the mid TN Valley from the west this Sat evening, as high pressure remains layered from the OH Valley southward into parts of the SE region.
157 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2023 Upper level ridge will be over the area today and Tuesday. This will bring dry weather with warmer temperatures.
As a deep upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest, the ridge overhead will amplify, resulting in today being the warmest day of the week. As the trough swings further inland, winds will become breezy up to around 20 mph across much of southeast Idaho with stronger winds 25 to 40 mph across the Central Mountains. A dry cold front will work through the region on Tuesday, bringing even stronger winds, although they look to remain sub-advisory level as the greatest wind impacts will be along the ridgelines of the Central Mountains. While morning lows will increase a bit Tuesday morning, daytime highs will run several degrees cooler as compared to today's, marking the beginning of a cooling trend.
(Today through Tuesday night) High pressure is building back across the panhandles which coupled with drier air that has intruded into the area last night will yield sunny and fair weather conditions. The building of the ridge will cause the winds to shift to a southerly direction today and then a southwesterly direction during the overnight. The position of the ridge will also not be dominant which will allow weak troughs to pass across the panhandles on Tuesday. Temperatures under the ridge will see a small increase for most areas with highs mainly in the 80s to low 90s.
As the vertically stacked low pressure centered over west central MN circulates, dynamically driven showers and thunderstorms have started to affect the Brainerd Lakes Region. The upper level low pressure system becomes negatively tilted by tomorrow morning with two separate areas of strong omega on the eastern side of the low pressure. Eventually the center of the upper level low pressure slides off to the southeast which should end precipitation chances for the region. However, the low pressure broadens enough to still affect the southern portion of the region.
Easterly outflow from the high will persist tonight as a 5 knot east wind is expected. High clouds associated with the upper low to our west in the Northern Plains will continue to push through the area tonight keeping skies partly to mostly cloudy. KGRR VWP is showing hits between 17,000 and 19,000 feet, so the high clouds are likely cirrostratus in nature. Look for low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night to be in the 50s with highs on Monday in the low to mid 70s.
Upper ridging will strengthen today across the Northern Rockies and then get shifted east on Tuesday.
Highs are forecast to rise into the low 90s Monday afternoon, with heat indices in the upper 80s to near 90 across Georgia and SE AL and the low to mid 90s across FL. (Monday night through Tuesday night) Upper-level troughing looks to swing down from the Midwest across the Mid-Atlantic, bringing with it a ribbon of PV that pushes across the area throughout Tuesday.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) After yesterday's initial cold front diffused out, we've been tracking a secondary, back-door front pushing through the Permian Basin early this morning. With continued easterly flow into tomorrow, storm chances shift to the western high terrain as moisture pooling against the higher elevations provides a local axis of maximum moisture.
Temperatures have dropped from the low to mid 80s out ahead of the boundary to rain-cooled temperatures in the low to mid 70s behind the passage of the outflow boundary and lingering rain. Mesoanalysis indicates the continued transport of deeper moisture in the lower levels with 850mb convergence depicting this influx via light southeasterly winds. High temperatures will trend a little warmer today with highs reaching the low to mid 90s across the region.
Therefore, clear skies will lead to warmer high temperatures. High temperatures are expected to be in the low-mid 80s.
A cold front passage on Tuesday will kick off a pattern change as a large storm system nudges into the region.
Upper level ridging will build over the Rockies during the short term period with northwest flow over western Kansas. Winds will generally be light and from a westerly direction today, shifting to the south tonight into tomorrow as lee troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Upper level ridging will move over the Plains mid week then over the Mississippi Valley as we head into the later part of the week. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough will dig into the northeastern United States mid week then strengthen into a closed low late this week into this weekend. This trough will help intensify surface lee troughing across eastern Colorado leading to southelry winds across western Kansas.