Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Widespread near freezing and below freezing temperatures are likely this morning and overnight tonight, before a warming trend sets up through the end of the week into the weekend. With the passing of the cold front yesterday, a cooler airmass has been moving into the region bringing cold temperatures and a brisk northwest wind. Low temperatures this morning and tomorrow will remain pretty chilly with below freezing temperatures, even for lower valleys. For the rest of the week and into this weekend, a ridge will try to build in, leading to a gradual warming trend.
With a weak transient ridge building in, the majority of southeast Idaho will see dry conditions for the first part of the day. However, as a trough moves onshore, the next disturbance will bring showery activity beginning later today which will continue through late week. High temperatures will run mostly in the 30s and 40s, with overnight lows dropping below freezing area-wide.
Still expected strong showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms this afternoon as an upper trough digs into the region.
WV/IR imagery this afternoon depicts an upper low spinning near the MT/CN border, with a pronounced attendant trof extending southwestward toward the central Rockies/Four Corners region. Enhanced deep moisture is evident on WV channels along the southeastern periphery of this trof from northern CO into southeastern WY, with trajectories directed toward our area. The aforementioned upper low will continue to spin as it propagates eastward through the northern Plains toward the Upper Midwest over the next 48-72 hours, bringing occasional chances for showers. Later in the period, low-level temperatures will gradually warm as troughing is replaced by modest ridging across the western CONUS into the Rockies.
Expecting the winds to die down this evening, as the upper level trough moves eastward. Temps are much cooler today, with most locales hovering in the mid to upper 70s. This is a nice respite from the much warmer days earlier this week.
-Freezing temperatures remain in the forecast this weekend. Surface analysis shows low pressure stretched across central Kansas with a dryline extending southward into Oklahoma and Texas. Convective initiation could begin as early as 23Z north of I-70 with better forcing near the low. Strong winds ahead of and behind a cold front tonight have also prompted the need for a Wind Advisory, which has been extended and expanded.
245 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather pattern through at least Thursday.
This boundary has been slow to retreat north as a warm front as eventual lee cyclogenesis occurs. The second is across the eastern zones as the cold front eventually comes zipping down with the potential for some precipitation along it. Speaking of, still expecting the strong cold front to move across the region late tonight.
(Through Thursday) Surface ridging and a dry airmass prevails across the region, allowing for mostly clear skies, with overnight lows ranging from the mid-50s inland to around 60 along the coast. The dry pattern continues on Thursday as surface ridging moves eastward, with continued Southeasterly flow.
The Northern Rockies remains under a broad trough with low pressure centers to the west and east, and moisture continues to wrap into western Montana from the low pressure system in eastern Montana. Accumulations during the afternoon will be reduced by warmer surface conditions, but showers with higher snow rates after sunset will be able to at least briefly accumulate on all surfaces.
139 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 MaxT's were adjusted a degree or two warmer based on yesterday's trends. Discussion: Upper heights will continue to build across Great Lakes and Ohio valley today in response to a strong trough/upper low over the northern Rockies.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows dry air wrapping into the low, effectively limiting nearly all the cloud cover present earlier today. The low-levels continue to remain dry as well, with ACARS/AMDAR sounding data showing a very pronounced dry layer below about 550mb. With surface ridging to the northeast, and easterly surface flow remains - gradually becoming more ESE over the days to come. However, a weak cold front may make it into Central and South Florida over the weekend with an upper-level trough propagating by to the north. The next potentially impactful system arrives over the weekend as a cold front approaches. RH values remain on the low side, largely in the 25-45% range.
(This evening through Thursday) High pressure will continue east with the entire area being under the influence of southerly flow this afternoon through Thursday. Warm air and moisture advection will set up through the short term with dewpoints increasing from the low 40s today to the upper 40s and low 50s by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures today and Thursday afternoon are expected to be in the 80s, with heat index values in the low to mid 80s as well.
A round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to impact the Midsouth tomorrow night as a cold front sweeps across the region.
(This evening through Thursday Night) Another night of above normal temps, with ongoing southerly flow ahead of our next cold front. With low clouds returning after midnight, expect temps to only fall into the low to mid 60s by daybreak. Ahead of the cold front, deepening S/SW flow pattern will maintain strong warm and moist air advection into the region. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s over much of the region, except for areas along and north of I-30, as cloud cover and rain should keep highs in the upper 70s.
117 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather pattern through at least Thursday.
Water vapor is showing a ridge over the Midwest which is acting to suppress any widespread convection at this time. Do expect there to be additional showers and thunderstorms development by Thursday afternoon with the approach of the upper trough and as the surface front moves into the CWA. Britt There is relatively good agreement in the global models that a trough will rotate and deepen as it rounds the south side of the upper low over the Upper Midwest.
Satellite imagery shows the location of an area of low pressure currently stationed over northeastern Montana. This low is embedded in a longwave trough that runs from the Pac NW, south across Arizona and east of the Rockies. A dry trough will move across Arizona today delivering strong gusty southwest winds to the northland. Winds calm down tonight as the trough moves eastward, winds aloft weaken and nocturnal surface inversions form.
The advancing cold front will overtake the dryline overnight. Will keep low pops in for parts of NE OK late tonight to account for any lingering activity, along with additional development along the cold front as it approaches the OK/KS border around sunrise. (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Cold front will move through most of the area Thursday, with areal coverage expanding along the front across SE OK and NW AR during the afternoon.
Dry air has lifted around the bottom of the low and northward into north central and eastern ND, ending the precipitation for the most part over the forecast area. A second low pressure system develops around northern Minnesota on Thursday. Farther west, the first upper low that is currently hanging out over northwest ND, finally starts to drop southeast and fill in, allowing wrap around moisture to spill into western ND. However with the upper low over this area, we could see a combination of winds and snow showers over the west on Thursday. Then Thursday night both upper lows drop south and wrap around moisture encompasses the entire forecast area.
12Z synoptic analysis indicates 850mb ridge is centered over the southeastern states, with strong southerly flow & WAA persisting. Highs will moderate above normal into the low 80s. Southerly winds will be breezy at times along the western gradient of this ridge. It will be slightly warmer than yesterday with highs above normal in most areas. Clear weather will continue into tonight, with a bit of a chill still lingering especially in eastern areas where the ridge is still close enough to keep surface winds lighter. Early morning patchy fog may begin to return to southern zones tomorrow morning as the low levels slowly moisten back up in southerly flow.
Temperatures throughout most of the Island Chain were in the lower to mid 80s. High pressure that was over the southeastern U.
As a high pressure located south of GA moves towards the Atlantic waters, the chance of rain remain very limited for the rest of today and into tomorrow. Minimum temperatures are expected to stay in the mid/upper 50s in the interior and in the low/mid 60s across the coastal portions. A weak mid-level low pressure over the Florida Peninsula will shift eastwards into the Atlantic waters/Northern Bahamas. A short wave ridge will briefly builds across Florida by late Thursday.
248 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue through the short term portion of the forecast.
After the convection ends by early evening, winds will remain southerly, and we'll have another warm and muggy night, with lows in the low to mid 60s. For Thursday, as the upper level trough axis over the Rocky Mountains moves east into the central plains, a cold front will move south into our area. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow across the eastern half of the area as the cold front moves through the region. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler with highs ranging from the upper 70s north of I-20, to the mid/upper 80s elsewhere.
The cold front should be south of the FA by late tomorrow morning and will bring temps that are 10-15 degrees cooler than today. Winds will be on the low side of breezy immediately behind the front tomorrow morning but will subside by the afternoon as surface ridging builds over the region.
322 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 High pressure across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast States will persist through the end of the work week.
Some of the storms could be severe along the cold front. Isolated showers and storms developed developed on the nose of the low level jet this morning and have been persistent into this afternoon. The cold front is expected to move through the area Thursday evening and precip will continue as well until the front passes, mainly in the east and southeast.
A warm front was located roughly along I80. There is a wide range in temperatures, with upper 40s and 50s north of the warm front to lower 70s south. If storms develop this evening, any storm near or crossing the warm front will pose a tornado threat as well. Thursday, a cold front will be moving relatively quickly through the area during the late morning and afternoon hours. High uncertainty remains with how things will unfold for any renewed storms in the late AM early PM along/ahead of the cold front.
145 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather pattern through at least Thursday.
Expect highs in the low 80s under clear skies. Rain and thunderstorms return tomorrow ahead of a cold front. 30/Sirmon Dry weather is expected to continue through Thursday morning with temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s for today and Thursday.
1113 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 MaxT's were adjusted a degree or two warmer based on yesterday's trends. Discussion: Upper heights will continue to build across Great Lakes and Ohio valley today in response to a strong trough/upper low over the northern Rockies.
1058 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 Low pressure sfc and aloft continue to deepen across eastern Montana currently. This has lightened up the tap of moisture aloft, but the proximity of the low will continue to produce light rain and snow showers the next several days. The developing low has also turned winds from the west this afternoon, and as the low deepens, winds will be increasing considerably today for most of the state. Sustained winds above 25 mph and gusts above 40 will be commonplace for a large portion of the state, especially along the I-25 corridor, where the winds will be directly perpendicular to the highway. On Thursday, the low will move east into the Northern Plains, turning winds more from the northwest.
300 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 The early afternoon GOES-W WV/VIS imagery showed a upper low over northeast MT, with a trough axis trailing southwest into UT. 12Z random forest guidance maintains strong winds at Bordeaux and Arlington until 00Z, so will extend the High Wind Warning until 6 PM. The High Wind Warnings for Arlington, Douglas, the I-80 Summit and Cheyenne were cancelled.
300 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 Key Messages: -Fire weather concerns persist this afternoon and again tomorrow, before temperatures trend cooler into the weekend.
As the trough over the upper Rockies edges east, the pressure gradient strengthens, therefore, winds will increase out of the south to southwest ahead of the front.
Tonight and Thursday An interesting mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain fell this morning as a low level jet and upper trough moved across the region. Boundary layer temperatures may be cold enough for some freezing rain or sleet across the far north. Conditions should be suitable for strong of severe storms along and just north of the warm front, so there is some potential of severe weather at least in east Central Wisconsin Thursday afternoon and evening.
Widespread near freezing and below freezing temperatures are likely overnight tonight, before a warming trend sets up through the end of the week into the weekend. Hopefully we only have to keep the heavy winter gear handy for one more chilly sunrise tomorrow morning! This may be wishful thinking, but an imcoming ridge seems promising to settle in overhead. Daytime temperatures are making a rebound later this week, and even our overnight lows will feel warmer. Ridges could see gusts to 35 mph, while valleys could see gusts to 20 mph mixing down. Things will be much quieter Thursday for winds, and the ridge moving in off the Pacific coast will help to keep it that way through the weekend.
(Today through Thursday) A small scale Rex block pattern is setting up across the Southeastern CONUS and northern Gulf of Mexico, with the ridge axis of the block passing through the forecast area this afternoon. Additionally, subsidence with the high pressure will continue to support clear skies and afternoon high temperatures in the mid 80s.
(Tonight) With an upper ridge remaining in tact over the southeast, a clear or mostly clear sky is anticipated tonight.
(This afternoon through Thursday Night) Beautiful, quiet conditions are still on tap for Middle Tennessee through Thursday as a low pressure system remains stalled over the northern US. Clear skies and southerly surface flow across our area will result in mild lows tonight and even warmer temperatures on Thursday as highs climb into the mid-80's. Our fire weather concerns will lessen starting Thursday night as the aforementioned northern US low moves and its associated slow- moving cold front finally arrives.
245 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 High pressure across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast States will persist through the end of the work week.
530 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 The early afternoon GOES-W WV/VIS imagery showed a upper low over northeast MT, with a trough axis trailing southwest into UT. 12Z random forest guidance maintains strong winds at Bordeaux and Arlington until 00Z, so will extend the High Wind Warning until 6 PM. The High Wind Warnings for Arlington, Douglas, the I-80 Summit and Cheyenne were cancelled.
(This afternoon through Thursday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue through the short term portion of the forecast.
High pressure continues to dominate weather conditions over the Peninsula through the period. Area of high pressure will continue to support breezy easterly winds across the Gulf waters with the afternoon sea breeze shifting winds onshore near the coast. Then, a low pressure system brings increasing rain chances for the weekend.
734 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 (Through Thursday) Surface ridging and a dry airmass prevails across the region, allowing for mostly clear skies, with overnight lows ranging from the mid-50s inland to around 60 along the coast. The dry pattern continues on Thursday as surface ridging moves eastward, with continued Southeasterly flow.
659 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 A round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to impact the Midsouth tomorrow night as a cold front sweeps across the region.
728 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 High pressure across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast States will persist through the end of the work week.
Clearing skies overnight will allow temperatures to fall back below freezing across much of the lower valley. Northwesterly flow on Thursday with strengthening ridge to the west will allow temperatures to warm into the mid 50s.
Satellite imagery, this afternoon, shows the low pressure system moving across the NE Montana/Canadian borders. This is the reason for our strong winds, as it is embedded in a longwave trough that traverses the western half of the United States.
(Tonight) The forecast remains on track as mostly clear skies as a result of high pressure lingering over the southeastern US will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 50s tonight (roughly 25-30 degrees cooler than the temperatures this afternoon were).
Key Messages: -Fire weather concerns persist this afternoon and again tomorrow, before temperatures trend cooler into the weekend.
909 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 Warm and breezy conditions will continue tonight through tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front. Central IL is now solidly in a warm sector behind the warm front that passed through earlier in the day, and a cold front in western IA. Isolated showers and storms developed developed on the nose of the low level jet this morning and have been persistent into this afternoon. The cold front is expected to move through the area Thursday evening and precip will continue as well until the front passes, mainly in the east and southeast.
Air temperatures are falling right along the curve to end up in the low to mid 60s.
649 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 (This evening through Thursday Night) Another night of above normal temps, with ongoing southerly flow ahead of our next cold front. With low clouds returning after midnight, expect temps to only fall into the low to mid 60s by daybreak. Ahead of the cold front, deepening S/SW flow pattern will maintain strong warm and moist air advection into the region. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s over much of the region, except for areas along and north of I-30, as cloud cover and rain should keep highs in the upper 70s.
(Tonight through Thursday) High pressure influence continues through Thursday.
We are still anticipating a cold front to bring a shot of strong to severe storms to the Mid South tomorrow night.
626 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Beautiful, quiet conditions are still on tap for Middle Tennessee through Thursday as a low pressure system remains stalled over the northern US. Clear skies and southerly surface flow across our area will result in mild lows tonight and even warmer temperatures on Thursday as highs climb into the mid-80's. Our fire weather concerns will lessen starting Thursday night as the aforementioned northern US low moves and its associated slow- moving cold front finally arrives.
726 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather pattern through at least Thursday.
912 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather pattern through at least Thursday.
Warmer temperatures continue to encourage snowmelt from the mountains.
623 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 (Tonight) With an upper ridge remaining in tact over the southeast, a clear or mostly clear sky is anticipated tonight.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows dry air wrapping into the low, effectively limiting nearly all the cloud cover present earlier today. The low-levels continue to remain dry as well, with ACARS/AMDAR sounding data showing a very pronounced dry layer below about 550mb. With surface ridging to the northeast, and easterly surface flow remains - gradually becoming more ESE over the days to come. However, a weak cold front may make it into Central and South Florida over the weekend with an upper-level trough propagating by to the north. The next potentially impactful system arrives over the weekend as a cold front approaches.
The primary severe threat will remain hail, with the surface warm front parked just south of the state line. The warm front will begin to lift northward into the area Thursday morning, with most if not all of the forecast area in the warm sector by mid to late afternoon. The morning round may be mainly a hail threat again, with a wind threat in the afternoon along with a small tornado concern as well as the cold front approaches.
900 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 High pressure across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast States will persist through the end of the work week.
Still, any sustained mesocyclone will be able to utilize unstable and highly sheared environment for at least a few more hours, with a definite large hail threat and at least low tornado threat. The ongoing storms should largely end after midnight, with a chance of storms possibly arriving again across northeast OK with the arrival of cold front. (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Cold front will move through most of the area Thursday, with areal coverage expanding along the front across SE OK and NW AR during the afternoon.
623 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 (This evening through Thursday) High pressure will continue east with the entire area being under the influence of southerly flow this afternoon through Thursday. Warm air and moisture advection will set up through the short term with dewpoints increasing from the low 40s today to the upper 40s and low 50s by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures today and Thursday afternoon are expected to be in the 80s, with heat index values in the low to mid 80s as well.
The early afternoon GOES-W WV/VIS imagery showed a upper low over northeast MT, with a trough axis trailing southwest into UT. 12Z random forest guidance maintains strong winds at Bordeaux and Arlington until 00Z, so will extend the High Wind Warning until 6 PM. The High Wind Warnings for Arlington, Douglas, the I-80 Summit and Cheyenne were cancelled.
The warm front will then shift nwd toward central WI by early afternoon as low pressure tracks from wrn IA to se MN. The low will continue into nw WI by later in the day with a cold front surging ewd across srn WI. The primary severe threat will remain hail, with the surface warm front parked just south of the state line. The warm front will begin to lift northward into the area Thursday morning, with most if not all of the forecast area in the warm sector by mid to late afternoon. The morning round may be mainly a hail threat again, with a wind threat in the afternoon along with a small tornado concern as well as the cold front approaches.
The surface warm front is expected to reach somewhere between I-94 and I-96 Thursday afternoon, making for a warm and breezy day south of the front. Thunderstorms with the cold front Thursday evening may produce gusty winds.
While low level shear will remain fairly low through the late afternoon, there will be a window of time in the early evening with the low level jet increasing but before prohibitive CIN develops through the region that low level shear will increase (0-1km shear ~ 30kts). As the low pressure cyclone moves through southern Oklahoma, the strong surface pressure gradient will result in strong southerly surface winds will increase across northern and central Oklahoma, with widespread Advisory criteria winds expected to persist until Thursday morning. A cold front will begin moving into the region Thursday morning northwest to southeast across the region. Showers and possibly some elevated storms may develop along this cold front.
642 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather pattern through at least Thursday.