Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
649 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Diurnal convection continued to form in the higher terrain of region. Somewhat more stable conditions are forecast for the mid week, as weak high pressure builds over the region.
Movement of these short waves suggest some clearing of the high clouds into NE ND and north valley tonight, while likely lingering high clouds SE ND into much of MN tonight. Dew points will once more be in the 40s to low 50s; however, with warmer daytime highs, the RH is expected to be in the middle 20 percent range from the Red River Valley westward. The highest wind potential will be in and around the Devils Lake Basin, with slightly lower winds for the northern Red River Valley and points south.
222 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023 A few isolated showers have been spreading off to the north and east early this morning, ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push into far southeast Montana by daybreak, with northwest winds behind the front gradually shifting to the north and northeast through the day. Cooler conditions will be found over the region today, with highs in the 70s. Heading into Wednesday, large scale troughing and an associated upper low moving into the Pac NW will cause flow to turn southwesterly aloft over the area.
Based on yesterday's highs in the RRV it is possible we reach the upper 80s (75th percentile of NBM) and maybe a few warmer locations at 90.
947 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Showers and thunderstorms continue to bubble up across western WY this afternoon on the leading edge of the approaching longwave trough.
It's a warm front with elevated instability and a low level jet so we will have to monitor trends closely.
Key Messages: - Still warm today, then trending cooler through the remainder of the week with highs in the 60s and 70s by the weekend.
Widespread rain coverage does not look to occur until late weekend ahead of a cold front.
348 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023 High pressure will build into the region today and persist through the end of the week. Surface features remain the same with high pressure settling into the Great Lakes. A low pressure system over the central plains region will track north northeastward in the near term towards the arrowhead of Minnesota.
Mid-to-high clouds over the area are generating some weak radar returns, but a lack of moisture especially in the low-levels has kept the forecast area dry. The wave over southern Kansas becomes a compact closed low and moves northeast tonight into Wednesday.
Wednesday should be a really nice mid-July day as the axis of a 850 hPa thermal ridge over the Central Plains pivots into MN. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, which are at least 10 degrees above normal for mid-September. Lows Wednesday night will again be in the mid to upper 50s with the Twin Cities heat island remaining a couple of degrees warmer.
150 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023 A slow moving upper level low will impact the region today.
2 this morning as dry air continues to filter into the area under the influence of high pressure.
High pressure will bring drier weather across northern Arizona on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The upper-level ridge begins to build further into our region on Wednesday. Temperatures push a degree or two warmer as a result of this.
A fairly large high pressure ridge has settled in across the Mid atlantic and Southeastern states and will dominate the weather pattern for the next few days. This ridge will keep the area nearly cloud free through the short term with only some isolated mid level fair wx clouds developing this afternoon and again Wed afternoon.
Otherwise, at least in the short term, good model consensus agreement keeping our area dry as surface ridging influences prevail but slowly shift eastward and dry upper level flow evolution into a southwesterly flow pattern becomes increasingly prevalent as Wednesday progresses. Per surface ridging influences shifting eastward, and establishment of a more substantial low level warm air advection pattern, a warming trend will commence.
Temperatures along the Keys are hovering mostly in the lower to mid 80s, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, and winds on land calm or very light from the east. Surface analysis depicts a weakening cold front extending from the Mid Atlantic across central Florida and the Gulf of Mexico to the Texas coast. This front has been pushed southward by a broad mid latitude trough progressing across the eastern CONUS, anchored by a cyclone over upstate New York. CAM guidance is fairly bullish with convective development, especially this morning across the Lower and Middle Keys, and have maintained near-climo 40 percent Pops. Our region will remain under the influence of troughing aloft through the next few days, as the old frontal boundary dissipates over central Florida.
(Today through Wednesday) High pressure will remain in control over the eastern CONUS through the short term period, with light winds gradually veering from northeasterly this morning to southeasterly by Wednesday. This will result in a mid-level cloud deck approaching from the west tomorrow afternoon but the low-levels will be too dry for any measurable precipitation. Low-level thicknesses today will be a little higher than yesterday but we will have a cooler start so will forecast highs near yesterday's values. Highs will be a couple degrees warmer tomorrow with the southeasterly winds.
312 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023 High pressure building in from the west persists through at least mid week with dry conditions and pleasant temperatures. A coastal low or coastal trough is forecast impact the area late in the week into the weekend. High pressure will continue build over the area from the north. Strong subsidence produced by the high will result in clear skies through tonight. Highs will be near normal in the lower 80s but with below normal humidity. High pressure will continue to produce clear skies and light winds tonight. Ridging will be the dominate feature through midweek leading to a calm, clear, and dry couple of days.
1054 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 (Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening, with high pressure in control -- promoting clear skies and light winds. Lows will eventually bottom out in the low to mid 50s in most locations by early Tuesday morning. High temperatures on Tuesday will remain in the lower to mid 80s, with mid 70s to around 80 degrees in the elevated terrain in the east. A slight warm up into the lower to upper 80s is expected west of the I-65 corridor on Wednesday, with upper 70s to lower 80s east. Lows will follow a similar trend, starting out in the mid to upper 50s Tuesday night and increase to mainly be in the lower to mid 60s Wednesday night.
An upper low and more defined short wave trof will evolve upstream within the quasi-zonal flow later this afternoon and evening, moving into western MO by early Wednesday morning. The upper low/trof will track slowly northeastward thru MO on Wednesday in response to a deepening upper trof in the western U. Clouds and precipitation will result in cooler temps across western parts of the CWA, while from the MS River east they will be at or above normal.
This initial round of activity slides by to the south today and early tonight, as lingering surface ridging within the background of ongoing subsidence in confluent flow maintains a dry and stable underlying profile. Renewed nocturnal low level jet development effectively invigorates forced ascent and moisture transport across the slowly advancing warm frontal zone over the lake Michigan corridor tonight.
Later this morning and afternoon, winds will be light and variable due to the strong influence of the high pressure with some high clouds and slightly warmer temperatures to account for increasing mid-level heights.
One to possibly two troughs developing lee of the Colorado Rockies in our westerlies will be digging across the Central High Plains and with the first one moving into the Southern Plains by the afternoon. This lee trough will steepen mid-level lapse rates resulting in rapid destabilization, with moderate 2000- 3000 J/kg of surface based CAPE to work with in the afternoon as well as moderate instability for any elevated lifted convection. As a result, could see severe storms develop late in the afternoon with peak daytime heating as the lee trough digs through. There is some model inconsistencies overnight with the GFS & ECMWF displacing the trough into eastern Oklahoma while the NAM slows it down with a second trough trailing through.
Another breezy day is store for the Northern Rockies as a trough of low pressure settles in over the region. Temperatures this afternoon will run around 5 degrees cooler than normal for this time of year. The big change in the weather pattern is on track to arrive starting Wednesday, as a cut-off low pressure system slides south out of British Columbia.
Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail as the center of the mid level ridge builds over Northern Mexico. Outside of diurnal cumulus, expect plentiful sunshine and high temperatures ranging from the upper 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 100 degrees over the Rio Grande Plains. Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday as the region remains under the influence of ridging aloft. Otherwise, afternoon highs will be about 2 or 3 degrees warmer as the ridge builds overhead, ranging from around 90 degrees along the Lower Texas beaches to around 103 degrees over the Rio Grande Plains.
Shower and storm coverage will gradually decrease by this afternoon as the low level jet veers and weakens, though at least a few showers may linger across southeastern Wisconsin. Highs will be warmer despite some cloud cover, topping out around 80.
Hoenisch Winds will gradually diminish overnight tonight as noticeably cooler air works its way into the area. /ISSUED 555 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2023/ Our extended run of late summertime is coming to a close over the next 12-24 hours as the anomalously strong upper level ridge continues to break down today.
High temps a few degrees warmer than yesterday but still slightly below normal. Otherwise, high pressure in place today and will allow for another very nice mid-September day. Temperatures will be few degrees warmer than yesterday but still slightly below normal. Patchy dense fog expected again tonight along waterways due to another night of calm and clear conditions thanks to high pressure remaining in place.
We will be transitioning into a cooler and wetter pattern over the next several days. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but still above normal. This system has more moisture to work and more upper level divergence as an upper level low moves toward the Pacific Northwest.
Activity will diminish through midnight as an upper trough and surface front push into the region. We'll see cooler temperatures on Tuesday behind the surface front and deepening of the upper trough. A weak cold front will move through from the northwest this evening. Cooler temperatures will arrive behind the front on Tuesday, along with gusty northwest winds around 25 mph. A developing upper low in Western Canada will move southward and reach our area by late Wednesday. Shower chances will increase by Wednesday evening, especially in the higher elevations of southwest Idaho. A cold front will accompany the system, leading to breezy to locally windy conditions Wednesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will trend much cooler through the period.
332 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Low pressure moves into the Maritimes today and will bring breezy and seasonably mild conditions with a mix of sun and clouds.
1024 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 (This evening through Tuesday night) Weak ridging will dominate the pattern through Wednesday. Thanks to the cooler dewpoints, stable air, and low humidities, temperatures will feel very nice compared with most of the Summer. Highs are forecast in the low 90s with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s. The lower humidities will contribute to some elevated fire weather concerns when combined with the dry abundant fuels (Keetch-Byram index is >700).
Once the warm front lifts through on Wednesday night, the shower/tstm risk should diminish/end and the primary news will be the warmer conditions which take hold for the end of the week.
1136 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Nearly zonal mid-level flow is producing high clouds into the western portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Current temperatures are in the low 60s to low 70s with mostly calm winds at the surface. Tonight's lows are expected to dip into the low to mid 50s across the region. AEH High pressure will bring dry weather and comfortable temperatures to the Mid-South through the middle of the week.
1119 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 All is quiet at this hour as high pressure slides over the region. 11/Calhoun (Tonight through Wednesday night) Mostly sunny, very dry, and highs in the lower and middle 90s across the region. With the low RH, apparent temps continue to run a few degrees below air temps. Daytime highs will remain in the lower and middle 90s, but onshore flow will help to moderate RH as TDs rise somewhat. Even with this increase, the higher TDs/RHs will struggle to reach central LA.
306 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023 High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week providing dry weather and a slow warming trend, with river valley fog developing at night. A high pressure system will provide dry weather today and tonight.
By late tomorrow weak upper ridging will briefly move over the area as the deep western trough expands and digs south.
1128 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 (This evening through Tuesday night) Weak ridging will dominate the pattern through Wednesday. Thanks to the cooler dewpoints, stable air, and low humidities, temperatures will feel very nice compared with most of the Summer. Highs are forecast in the low 90s with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s. The lower humidities will contribute to some elevated fire weather concerns when combined with the dry abundant fuels (Keetch-Byram index is >700).
The upper ridge that has been present west of the area will be breaking down during the period, and will allow an upper level disturbance to approach the area late Tuesday thru Wednesday.
1224 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Diurnal convection continued to form in the higher terrain of region. Somewhat more stable conditions are forecast for the mid week, as weak high pressure builds over the region.
251 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023 High pressure will move east into the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight. The high will remain over the region on Tuesday. High pressure will settle into the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight. Expect Tuesday's highs to range from the lower 70s northeast to the mid/upper 70s southwest. Low temperatures are generally forecast in the lower and middle 50s.
At the surface, dry high pressure will stay in control.
Temperature maximums will still reach the lower 90s today under a more moist atmospheric column with PWATs above an inch. Otherwise, temperatures will fall toward milder minimums in the mid-to-upper 60s tonight before warming back up toward maximums in the lower 90s once again tomorrow. An upper-level high centered across north Mexico will remain firmly established through the period, positioned in such a way that the ArkLaTex will remain on the northern periphery of the ridge.
1019 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Water vapor shows upper high over the north-central CONUS and south-central Canada, with weak upper trof over the Pac NW and stronger trof/low over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, trof is located over the central Dakotas, with early afternoon highs well into the 80s and lower 90s most locations. Upper trof over the Pac NW will advance eastward tonight and Tuesday and weaken, with weak cold front moving through our region. Temps will be wider ranging on Tuesday with the passage of the cold front, from the mid 70s in northeast WY to around 90 in south-central SD.
H500 flow remains nearly zonal across the state as ridging remains over northern Mexico. At the sfc, ridging remains over the Ohio Valley which is allowing for clear skies and light winds across areas to the E/NE of the state. From tonight into Wednesday as the ridge become more removed from the area and low level moisture increases across the state, precip will likely become more widespread across AR. Temperatures are expected to be very warm again today with slightly cooler temperatures expected Wednesday with increased cloud cover and precip (at least across west/north Arkansas).
Again though the issue for any rainfall will be overall moisture, especially in the lower levels. These will help keep temperatures in the lower to middle 50s for lows.
Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday or possibly a degree or two warmer depending on cloud cover. At the surface we will remain caught between troughing to our west and a high to the east. As the trough shifts east today expect for a tightening surface gradient leading to gusty southerly surface winds up to 30 mph this afternoon. Overnight, the low gradually strengthens, along with the arrival of a vorticity max, which will aid in better chances for showers and thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains in the forecast through Wednesday as the low slowly meanders to the northeast. Temperatures will be much cooler on Wednesday with most of the area remaining in the mid to upper 70s.
(Today through Wednesday Night) With a midlevel ridge continuing to build to our SW, conditions should remain near seasonable and generally benign in the immediate term. Afternoon highs should once again approach the low to mid 90s area-wide. A slightly warmer and more humid day is expected on Wednesday as the aforementioned ridge continues to strengthen to our SW.
1057 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 All is quiet at this hour as high pressure slides over the region. 11/Calhoun (Tonight through Wednesday night) Mostly sunny, very dry, and highs in the lower and middle 90s across the region. With the low RH, apparent temps continue to run a few degrees below air temps. Daytime highs will remain in the lower and middle 90s, but onshore flow will help to moderate RH as TDs rise somewhat. Even with this increase, the higher TDs/RHs will struggle to reach central LA.
(Today through Wednesday) Subtropical ridging extends from Mexico northward into much of AZ/NM/SW TX and not shift much in the short term periods. Upstream heights will fall out west Wednesday as an upper low drops south from Canada into the Pac NW. These lower heights will probably bring a slight boost in the low level pressure gradient over TX and perhaps slightly better onshore moisture.
High pressure stretched from the eastern Hudson Bay area southward through the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast. An area of low pressure was observed across eastern Saskatchewan with a warm front extending into the Central Dakotas to another area of low pressure in central South Dakota. High pressure will slowly shift off to the east into Wednesday with upper ridging moving through as well. Troughing on the backside of the ridge across the Plains will lead to southerly flow for Tuesday and Wednesday ushering in above normal temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s. Wednesday evening will see an upper low lift into northern Manitoba with a weak cold front trailing southward into the Northern Plains to a developing area of low pressure over the Dakotas.
High pressure continues to build in the wake of the frontal passage this past weekend. Expect temperatures in the low to mid 80s with fair weather. Synoptically, the high pressure that is expected to build in over the next couple days will remain. Other models are not as bullish with dry air, but given the persistent ridging in place before hand it wouldn't be too hard to see the presence of a subsidence inversion near the surface.
930 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 2023 A trough over the West Coast will bring cooler than average weather this week.
High pressure returns for Wednesday and dominates the region's weather through the upcoming weekend providing dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures. As the upper low shifts directly over the forecast area today, and the coastal low tracks north towards the Gulf of St. Deep layer moisture begins to shift east of the region tonight and showers will generally end towards sunset except across the higher terrain of Vermont, but clouds are expected to linger through much of the night. Dry and seasonably cool temperatures will prevail for Wednesday under building high pressure with partly sunny skies and highs ranging through the 60s. High pressure will build Wednesday night with dry air at the 700 mb level of the atmosphere, providing mostly clear skies and favorable conditions for fog in the typical valley spots following Tuesday's rain showers.
Temperatures will be a bit cool Tuesday, then warm into the lower to middle 80s for the remainder of the workweek. A warm front begins to impact the area Tuesday morning. As such, the highest PoPs will be in areas west of IN-15 and then in areas north of US-6 where the better forcing resides Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Warm air advects in allowing for warmer high temperatures, reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s, Tuesday. Wednesday sees warmer temperatures behind the front, reaching the mid 70s to low 80s.
111 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023 High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week providing dry weather and a slow warming trend, with river valley fog developing at night. A high pressure system will provide dry weather today and tonight.
312 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Building high pressure will provide dry conditions through the week and into the weekend. High pressure building across the Middle Ohio Valley will provide clear skies through dawn in most locations, along with light and variable wind. Highs will be a bit above or right around normal and winds will be mainly light through the day with high pressure remaining the dominant weather feature. Probabilities remain high that tonight into Wednesday night will be dry under high pressure.
312 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023 High pressure will build over the East Coast through mid week. A closed mid/upper low over northern New England and southern Quebec on Tuesday will lift NE into the Canadian Maritimes on Tuesday night. In between these two features, weak ridging from a subtropical high over the western Atlantic will extend NW into central NC, resulting in zonal flow and continued height rises. At the surface, high pressure over the Appalachians will slowly drift east or remain stationary. Dew points should mix out well, dropping into the lower-to- mid-50s in most places, and some guidance even shows isolated upper- 40s not out of the question. Forecast lows Tuesday night are in the mid-to-upper-50s in most places, except lower-50s in the cooler outlying areas, which is near to 5 degrees below normal.
The high pressure will continue to move downstream off the Carolina coast allowing for a more easterly or southeasterly fetch to develop across the Gulf. Additionally, another H5 trough tries to amplify over the ArkLaTex as the previous impulse tries to move downstream over Florida. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to be a few degrees above CLIMO with most of the region warming into the lower to middle 90s with the highest temperatures over the Atchafalaya basin where the driest antecedent conditions exist.
Seasonably cool temperatures today in the upper 60s to low 70s warm into the low to mid 80s through the remainder of the week. West east arc of showers/storms within return low level theta-e ridge across IA will continue ewd near term yet expected to largely diminish with ern extent as they outrun sharp west-east instability gradient. Significant warmup this period as upper ridge expands sharply inbetween developing nrn plains cutoff and subtropical sys lifting up the east coast this weekend as larger scale east CONUS centered blocking unfolds. Mid/high clouds advancing ahead of an approaching warm front and weak disturbance should hopefully keep impacts limited, but will need to be closely monitored for the next several hours.