Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A shallow layer of cold air at the surface will be overrun by a saturated warm layer as an upper trough traverses the region. A mix of freezing rain, snow, and freezing drizzle is possible through the early morning hours. 10 inch; however, travel impacts start with only a light glaze of freezing drizzle or freezing rain. Areas to the west of the Red River and far northwest Minnesota could see a mix of light snow, sleet, and possibly light freezing rain. Temperatures are expected to approach freezing across most areas by early afternoon, which should help limit impacts from midday onward through the late afternoon.
CAMS have shifted the higher LLM further east overnight, with 0-1 KM RH best east of the I-29 corridor. Will continue mentioning patchy freezing drizzle overnight with no ice accumulation. With increasing LLM and clouds tonight, lows should be fairly mild with temperatures in the low 20s, to the lower 30s. The winds may cause patchy blowing and drifting snow, but with highs today at or above freezing, impacts from blowing snow should be limited.
1024 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2023 Mean western NOAM upper trough will support semi-active flow through the period. SW CONUS upper low will move east today with associated WAA and breezy SW winds supporting another mild day, esp for parts of northeast WY and far western SD. Upper trough will cross the region late tonight, with some light snow possible over northeast WY and the BHs Monday morning. Gusty SW winds over SW areas will diminish and transition to gusty NW winds most places behind the trough, with near adv levels possible on the plains east of the BHs Monday morning. Cooler conds expected for Monday, but still near seasonal norms. Mean western CONUS trough will persist through this week allowing for seasonably cool temps and semi-unsettled conds.
- Cooler to end the week, with more chances for precipitation. Thicker cloud cover has kept temperatures a bit cooler today across eastern Kansas. This large amount of shear and strong forcing associated with a very dynamic low pressure system should be enough to offset the cap and missing CAPE to produce some severe storms.
1040 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2023 A stationary front boundary to our south today will lift north was a warm front late tonight into Monday. Strong low pressure pushing into the Great Lakes Monday afternoon into Monday night will sweep a cold front across.
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1207 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 A low pressure system will move across the Midwest into the Great Lakes.
The Storm Prediction Center has a threat for severe weather southwest of our region, in correlation to the advancing trough.
Tonight and Monday: A powerful midlevel trough moving through the southern Rockies early this afternoon will continue east-northeast into the central and southern Plains tonight before reaching the lower-MO/mid-MS Valley regions by Monday morning. The low- to midlevel clouds currently overspreading our area are indicative of positive moisture flux occurring over the mid-MO Valley, a process that will continue into tonight ahead of the approaching synoptic system.
Winds range from northeast across the Lower Keys (also home to the lower dewpoints), to southeast across the Upper Keys, all less than 3 knots.
Low clouds and fog continue to slowly erode over the northeast Gulf waters, but some patchy fog will likely continue over the cooler shelf waters.
(Tonight) Rapid changes to the environment are underway across W and NW TX as the warm front lifts northward and skies clear in advance of the strong wave. The higher terrain of far NW AR may also see an uptick in wind damage potential as elevation influences augment even the weakest convection.
High pressure over the area slides further south/east away from ECFL on Mon, though conditions remain warm/dry.
310 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Freezing rain and significant icing expected across most of western Wisconsin late tonight and early Monday.
The low clouds that were over the eastern gulf have dissipated with clear skies across the region this evening.
The cold front will drop through the area tonight. CAMs continue to show the potential for some of the initial precipitation for the lower elevations starting out as rain then cooling to all snow. However, some of the forecast soundings support the potential for some light freezing rain as the surface cools faster than the air aloft. NBM has around a 20 to 30 percent chance for freezing rain in southeastern Montana between 6 PM to midnight. Expect temperatures to be much cooler tomorrow, behind the cold front. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler.
Fog has become more widespread across eastern OK this evening in the saturated cool air on the north side of a sharp warm front down near the Red River.
The strength of the low will provide broad warm moist advection over the region and a large area of precipitation is expected to move overhead during the early morning hours on Monday and continue into early Monday afternoon. With the WAA occurring over colder sfc temperatures over central WI, some freezing rain may occur at the onset of the precipitation. Warm air is expected to push northward quickly however, so this light freezing rain will not last longer than 2-3 hours and the temperature profile should warm enough so that any freezing rain will melt once the switch to all rain occurs, limiting impacts.
Improving weather conditions are expected tonight and Monday as the low pressure area moves east of the state.
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 334 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 A cold front will move through overnight, bringing a chance for light showers early tomorrow morning.
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 537 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 A cold front will move through overnight, bringing a chance for light showers early tomorrow morning.
Where more fresh/blowable snow cover remains over primarily northern parts of Phillips and Valley counties, they have struggled to reach the lower 30s. Sunshine will return quickly Monday morning with dry air behind the cold frontal passage.
400 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2023 Updated Aviation Somewhat warmer conditions are expected early this week, though temperatures will remain below normal.
218 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2023 Cool, breezy, and unsettled weather returns this week as mean trough persists over US west. Current WV imagery and upper air analysis depicts western US trough and closed upper low centered over Four Corners region, putting the Northern Plains under west-southwest flow.
601 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 The weather looks to remain quiet heading into tonight as an upper ridge remains stationary across the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern United States. In addition to this, the aforementioned ridge should remain stationary across our forecast area before slowly shifting east out of our CWA by Monday afternoon as the low runs overtop the ridge. Afternoon temperatures should peak in the low 80s across most of the area.
852 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2023 A weak cold front will pass through the area this evening. High pressure will briefly build overhead late tonight before low pressure and its associated warm front impact the area Monday through Monday night.
a Pacific cold front will move into west Texas this evening and move through west-central Texas tonight. A line of showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the cold front this evening and move across the northern and western portions of the CWA. Once the cold front moves through the area late tonight.
522 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 (Tonight) Rapid changes to the environment are underway across W and NW TX as the warm front lifts northward and skies clear in advance of the strong wave. The higher terrain of far NW AR may also see an uptick in wind damage potential as elevation influences augment even the weakest convection.
345 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2023 Cool, breezy, and unsettled weather returns this week as mean trough persists over US west. Current WV imagery and upper air analysis depicts western US trough and closed upper low centered over Four Corners region, putting the Northern Plains under west-southwest flow.
1257 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 Rain and warmer air will spread across the region today. Rain stretching out along a warm front, ahead of the system, will begin to overspread the region this morning, reaching the northeastern periphery of the forecast area by early afternoon. With a tightening surface pressure gradient, lowering mixing heights, and the passage of an impressive low-level jet, gusty winds are anticipated this afternoon -- strongest (and just below advisory criteria) across the PA ridges. Rain showers will become more scattered late tonight as much drier mid-level air spreads across the region behind the surface front/upper level trough.
Monday through the end of the week will feature cooler than normal temperatures and several rounds of precipitation. A disturbance or two rotating counterclockwise along the outer edges and ahead of an area of low pressure approaching the Washington and Oregon coast may act as kickers and allow for additional snow shower activity Monday.
Already seeing some slow weakening trends with the Srn extent of this convection across NCntrl TX where the best forcing ahead of the ejected closed low over the OK Panhandle/SW KS has begun to shift NE into ECntrl OK, with MLCapes also beginning to diminish with the loss of heating in the expanding warm sector over Ern OK/Wrn AR. Thus, the current expectation is for this convective line to continue diminishing in intensity given the reducing instability/large scale forcing with the departing closed low. 15 (00Z TAFS) A warm front continues to lift N attm across extreme SE OK into the Nrn sections of SW AR, with cigs expected to continue improving to VFR with its passage as it shifts into Ern OK/Wrn AR through mid to late evening.
359 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 Rain and warmer air will spread across the region today. Rain stretching out along a warm front, ahead of the system, will begin to overspread the region this morning, reaching the northeastern periphery of the forecast area by early afternoon. With a tightening surface pressure gradient, lowering mixing heights, and the passage of an impressive low-level jet, gusty winds are anticipated this afternoon -- strongest (and just below advisory criteria) across the PA ridges. Rain showers will become more scattered late tonight as much drier mid-level air spreads across the region behind the surface front/upper level trough.
For Monday and Tuesday, springlike conditions will persist with temperatures reaching the low 80s on an afternoon basis. With dew points running in the high 60s over much of the forecast area, early indications would suggest that the cape-shear combination would be sufficient for organized thunderstorms as this system approaches late in the week.
154 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2023 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low from yesterday continuing east across the Plains. Behind the low dry air and subsidence have led to a clear sky. Upstream from the low a weak ridge was approaching the Plains, with nearly zonal flow upstream of it. At the surface a cold front had moved through. Behind the cold front northwest winds were breezy. Highs will be cooler than yesterday, but still above normal. Lows will be cooler than last night due to the lower wind speeds. Tuesday a warm front will move through from the west. Tuesday night a upper level short wave trough and associated cold front will move through the forecast area.
/EC/ The weather looks to remain quiet heading into tonight as an upper ridge remains stationary across the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern United States. In addition to this, the aforementioned ridge should remain stationary across our forecast area before slowly shifting east out of our CWA by Monday afternoon as the low runs overtop the ridge. Afternoon temperatures should peak in the low 80s across most of the area.
1000 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2023 Updated Aviation Somewhat warmer conditions are expected early this week, though temperatures will remain below normal.
Based on persistence, went towards the higher end of guidance with high temps, ranging generally from 85-90 across the area. We'll generally repeat the pattern on Tuesday, however with a bit more of a W/SW flow the east coast metro may be even a degree or two warmer.
Patchy fog is developing across east Arkansas, but shouldn't last long as a warm front lifts across the area and winds increase. A fast moving storm system associated with a strong mid level trough will push across the Midsouth late tonight into Monday. 30/Sirmon A cold front will move through overnight, bringing a chance for light showers early tomorrow morning.
Adv level snows are looking increasingly likely there, with localized warning levels possible depending on the track/speed of the low. If the track of the low shifts north, the stronger winds could affect portions of the central BH and Rapid City area. Snow will shift east Tues night with cooler conds expected Wed.
/EC/ Tonight and Tomorrow: The weather looks to remain quiet heading into tonight as an upper ridge remains stationary across the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern United States. In addition to this, the aforementioned ridge should remain stationary across our forecast area before slowly shifting east out of our CWA by Monday afternoon as the low runs overtop the ridge. Afternoon temperatures should peak in the low 80s across most of the area.
While upper level flow has become zonal, the lower through mid level ridge is aligned across the Florida Straits and is maintaining this stretch of stable rain free conditions. Short Term Update - The lower through mid level ridge will settle a bit further south overnight, but continue maintaining stable weather across the Keys. A ridge across the Keys will shift slightly eastwards through the overnight period.
Models are still showing variability in timing for the onset of freezing rain late tonight or early Monday, but since dew points are still in the single digits to lower teens, a slower arrival time makes sense. 850mb temperatures will likely be above freezing as the precipitation arrives in Central and East Central Wisconsin, so freezing rain is likely until temperatures cool enough aloft to get snow, or boundary layer warms enough to get rain. Surface temperatures will probably warm a little above freezing south of highway 54 during the midday hours.
Already seeing some slow weakening trends with the Srn extent of this convection across NCntrl TX where the best forcing ahead of the ejected closed low over the OK Panhandle/SW KS has begun to shift NE into ECntrl OK, with MLCapes also beginning to diminish with the loss of heating in the expanding warm sector over Ern OK/Wrn AR. Thus, the current expectation is for this convective line to continue diminishing in intensity given the reducing instability/large scale forcing with the departing closed low.
Some of the higher hills of Big Horn county could pick up a dusting to an inch of snow with persistent snow showers. Tonight will be mostly dry, with the exception of some mountain snow showers, as a flat upper ridge slides in ahead of the next trough.
310 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 Discussion/Marine - Wintry mix of precipitation today - A strong low pressure system centered over northeastern Kansas early this morning will move ene and bring mixed pcpn to our area today. Pcpn will develop over our far sw fcst area around daybreak as a result of strong isentropic lift north of the warm front. P-type will be predominantly rain near to south of I-96 but a brief one to two hour period of -fzra and sleet is possible at the beginning of the event due to dynamical cooling and sfc temps near freezing. North of the I-96 corridor we expect freezing rain with potential for fzra accumulations on the order of a quarter to third of an inch.
134 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 Low pressure will exit across the Gulf of Maine overnight. High pressure will cross the region Monday. A trof will cross the region later Tuesday.
The next upper trough will approach on Monday and spread additional snow showers across the forecast area throughout the day. The wind forecast has been updated to increase the southerly wind speeds and gusts on Monday ahead of the cold front. Patchy fog developing in sheltered valleys and the Lower Treasure Valley early Monday morning. At 2 PM MST cold front was in western ID and moving steadily east. Later Monday the next north Pacific trough will enter our CWA and bring more snow through Monday night.
251 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Water vapor imagery currently shows a potent upper low lifting into Northern MO with an additional upper low approaching the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure is situated over extreme northeast KS and will be moving into northwest MO soon. By Fri afternoon there is good model agreement in the upper low moving out into west/central TX and into the Arklatex region by early Fri morning. Scattered showers under the upper low and behind the cold front will affect central Kansas until about 09z. Otherwise, strong west to northwest winds will develop in the wake of the departing low pressure later tonight thru midday on Monday with low level wind shear conditions.
942 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2023 Cool, breezy, and unsettled weather returns this week as mean trough persists over US west. Current WV imagery and upper air analysis depicts western US trough and closed upper low centered over Four Corners region, putting the Northern Plains under west-southwest flow.
and Tuesday A swath of precipitation associated with a low pressure system lifting north towards southern Iowa is currently over southwest Wisconsin and making headway through Wisconsin early this morning. A warm layer of air around 850 mb will likely keep precipitation as mainly liquid to start, with freezing rain expected at the onset across central and east-central Wisconsin. As the day wears on cooler temperatures aloft will allow for a mix of rain, snow, and sleet depending on surface temperatures and how quickly the column cools. Further north precipitation will be a mix of snow, freezing rain, and sleet given cooler temperatures aloft with mainly snow expected during the afternoon hours as the column cools throughout the morning hours.
512 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 (Today) Upper low lifting northeast of the region this morning.
Slightly cooler, but still above average temperatures, will be seen today across the Sunshine state.
A cold frontal boundary is progged to pass through the forecast area generating gusty winds. Highs today should reach the low to mid 30s for most locations.
302 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 An upper trough that yielded severe weather across the southern plains yesterday will be pushing a front into our area today. Upper ridging in place is promoting warm mid level temperatures and should result in only scattered, shallow showers north of I-20 today. The cool down will be quite short lived with temperatures Tuesday similar to the highs we see this afternoon: upper 70s F to lower 80s F.
Another round of showers and storms on the back side of the low was beginning to push into southeast NE and may bring amounts closer to 1. While said northwest flow won't lead to significantly cooler temperatures (highs in the 40s and 50s), it will usher in some drier air. 01" per EPS), but model soundings show the aforementioned dry air remaining in the low levels.
More like a localized banded snow event within the system-relative deformation zone of this compact low pressure system.
439 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2023 The relatively moist southwesterly flow continues today as a broad trough sits over the Western US.
Expecting highs today to be around 80 degrees to the low 80s again across the region, except the immediate coast where upper 70s are expected. As for lows tonight, given the increased moisture, still expecting lows to range in the low to mid 60s. Highs on Tuesday, continue to be mostly around 80 to the low 80s except for mid/upper 70s at the immediate coast.
Showers and few thunderstorms today along a cold front. Temperatures into the low to mid 70s.
Temperatures in the upper-60s/low-70s and clear skies are expected amidst upper ridging.
324 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Water vapor imagery currently shows a potent upper low lifting into Northern MO with an additional upper low approaching the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure is situated over extreme northeast KS and will be moving into northwest MO soon. By Fri afternoon there is good model agreement in the upper low moving out into west/central TX and into the Arklatex region by early Fri morning. Scattered showers under the upper low and behind the cold front will affect central Kansas until about 09z. Otherwise, strong west to northwest winds will develop in the wake of the departing low pressure later tonight thru midday on Monday with low level wind shear conditions.
Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday due to the cold front that moved through but with downsloping westerly winds, clear skies, and dry air temperatures will still be able to warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Isolated to low end chance POPs are in place Tuesday for a developing warm front lifting through north central Nebraska.
(Today) Upper low lifting northeast of the region this morning.
531 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 Aviation - Wintry mix of precipitation today - A strong low pressure system centered over northeastern Kansas early this morning will move ene and bring mixed pcpn to our area today. Pcpn will develop over our far sw fcst area around daybreak as a result of strong isentropic lift north of the warm front. P-type will be predominantly rain near to south of I-96 but a brief one to two hour period of -fzra and sleet is possible at the beginning of the event due to dynamical cooling and sfc temps near freezing. North of the I-96 corridor we expect freezing rain with potential for fzra accumulations on the order of a quarter to third of an inch.
436 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2023 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low from yesterday continuing east across the Plains. Behind the low dry air and subsidence have led to a clear sky. Upstream from the low a weak ridge was approaching the Plains, with nearly zonal flow upstream of it. At the surface a cold front had moved through. Behind the cold front northwest winds were breezy. Highs will be cooler than yesterday, but still above normal. Lows will be cooler than last night due to the lower wind speeds. Tuesday a warm front will move through from the west. Tuesday night a upper level short wave trough and associated cold front will move through the forecast area.
Expect breezy and cool conditions for today and Tuesday, with some low clouds and flurries over the higher terrain.
Strong upper level low currently is exiting our area(per WV imagery) this morning. Highs today will be few degrees cooler, mainly 70s.
519 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 Rain and warmer air will spread across the region today. Rain stretching out along a warm front, ahead of the system, will begin to overspread the region this morning, reaching the northeastern periphery of the forecast area by early afternoon. With a tightening surface pressure gradient, lowering mixing heights, and the passage of an impressive low-level jet, gusty winds are anticipated this afternoon -- strongest (and just below advisory criteria) across the PA ridges. Rain showers will become more scattered late tonight as much drier mid-level air spreads across the region behind the surface front/upper level trough.
529 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Water vapor imagery currently shows a potent upper low lifting into Northern MO with an additional upper low approaching the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure is situated over extreme northeast KS and will be moving into northwest MO soon. By Fri afternoon there is good model agreement in the upper low moving out into west/central TX and into the Arklatex region by early Fri morning.
Warmer than normal temperatures through the first half of the week.
The lower valleys of Northwest Montana also have decent probabilities (60-80%) of 1 to 3 inches of snow.