Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The moisture depth is progged to barely reach into the DGZ so its unlikely that we will see impacts, especially with surface temperatures struggling to fall below freezing. The high res models and SPC HREF LPMM suggest the typical area along and west of US-131 will be favored for measurable qpf. As a result we will feature the highest POPs for that area, mainly later Friday afternoon into Friday night. - Will keep it dry Sat night into early Sun Models are showing a warm front lifting northward through the CWA then.
Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer on Friday.
An area of high pressure over the southeastern United States will continue to slide into the western Atlantic waters over the next several days, resulting in mainly fair weather, with gentle to moderate easterly breezes in the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. The models show a variety of solutions with the possible low pressure. There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys High pressure centered just to the east of northern Florida will continue to move into the western North Atlantic and broaden over the next several days. A second area of high pressure will merge with and fortify the Atlantic high over the weekend.
1106 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 (Today and tonight) A cool and damp day is in the making in the wake of last night's cold front shoving through the Permian Basin as of 2 AM. An elongated, positively-tilted upper trough axis just upstream of this moisture plume will make slow progress east later today while leaving a vort max orphaned in the Desert SW. Despite a favorable subtropical jet loitering over the region today and a modest H7 trough arriving from Chihuahua, models are anemic with isentropic ascent in our region. Temperature-wise, daily highs have likely been met as of midnight with values only expected to creep lower through the morning, particularly as top-down saturation breeds wet bulb cooling through the lower levels.
1214 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 Departing upper ridging and high pressure will keep conditions dry with above normal temperatures today. A cold front will move into the region Friday into the weekend bringing a chance of showers and much cooler temperatures.
A front is approaching the shore and some of the higher elevations in the coast range have registered a hundreth of rain from the mid-level clouds moving in. Gusty south winds, steep seas and periods of rain are expected to accompany a cold front through the waters today.
529 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) As of 20Z, the cold front has passed through the entire CWA with the exception of the Big Bend where temperatures are still in the low 70s. Areas of dense fog may develop near the Davis mountains, but a breeze around 10 mph through the overnight should be enough to prevent widespread dense fog from developing outside of the higher elevations. Another trough will swing through New Mexico tomorrow.
648 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 Unseasonably warm and dry weather will continue into Friday as high pressure moves farther off the Southeast coast.
For tonight, skies will be mostly clear allowing temperatures to fall into the 20s across the lower elevations. For the high country, temperatures fall into the single digits and teens with the lower values confined to the mountain valleys. Friday, a weak upper level trough moves across the region.
617 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 A cold front moves through early tonight.
939 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 A cold front continues to cross the area thru the evening. A weak wave of low pressure rides along the front and affect the weather Friday.
(This evening through Friday) Increasing clouds from the north will result in cooler temperatures over that region. For the Central Coast, expecting similar conditions as yesterday as we remain under weak high pressure. After a chilly start to the day, highs will warm into the upper 50s along the immediate coast, 60s inland, and lower 70s for the warmer interior spots.
141 PM PST Thu Nov 9 2023 Warmer and dry conditions expected through the weekend with gusty Santa Ana winds diminishing today.
615 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 A cold front continues to cross the area thru the evening. A weak wave of low pressure rides along the front and affect the weather Friday.
The upper level trough is currently digging through Arizona increasing the afternoon winds just a touch and bringing those cooler afternoon temperatures through Friday.
A trough will continue to remain across Arizona through late tonight before it starts to move quickly to the east on Friday. As a result, we will continue to see some gusty northeast winds and cooler temperatures across the area. Winds will be strongest downwind of the higher terrain.
703 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 High pressure will extend across the region through Friday.
924 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 A cold front moved south and east of Long Island Thursday evening, as high pressure was building to the west.
511 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 Rain showers will remain over much of the Mid-South tonight through Friday morning behind the cold front. Temperatures will be much cooler tonight with lows Friday morning in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
757 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 High pressure will extend across the region through Friday.
951 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 Unseasonably warm and dry weather will continue into Friday as high pressure moves farther off the Southeast coast.
525 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 (This evening through Friday Night) We are seeing the last of the warm/humid air this afternoon ahead of a cold front now pushing into southeastern TX. For coastal areas /south of I10/, don't expect much improvement for the next 24-36 hrs with max temperatures 20 or so degrees cooler Friday than today.
(This afternoon through Friday night) As of 20Z, the cold front has passed through the entire CWA with the exception of the Big Bend where temperatures are still in the low 70s. Areas of dense fog may develop near the Davis mountains, but a breeze around 10 mph through the overnight should be enough to prevent widespread dense fog from developing outside of the higher elevations. Another trough will swing through New Mexico tomorrow.
A cold front will drop south Friday night with rain and snow showers in central NY. Later Friday and Friday night colder moves in with the low-level flow turning more northwesterly. Clearing has worked into NEPA and south central NY ahead of the cold front from the Adirondacks to the Poconos. Qpf is light and so will snowfall as temperatures remain above freezing. Friday clouds increase ahead of a cold front that drops southeast Friday night and a system passing across the mid Atlantic states. Some snow accumulations under half an inch are possible across the higher terrain. Low temperatures will be mostly in the low and mid 30s.
A cooler airmass is invading the region. Rain showers will remain over much of the Mid-South tonight through Friday morning behind the cold front. Temperatures will be much cooler tonight with lows Friday morning in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
A cold front will drop south tonight with some scattered rain and snow showers in Central NY.
400 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 A cold front across the North Carolina today will be the focus for rain over most of our area.
1218 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 (Rest of tonight) This evening, a cold front has pushed southeast across the local forecast area.
1053 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) As of 20Z, the cold front has passed through the entire CWA with the exception of the Big Bend where temperatures are still in the low 70s. Areas of dense fog may develop near the Davis mountains, but a breeze around 10 mph through the overnight should be enough to prevent widespread dense fog from developing outside of the higher elevations. Another trough will swing through New Mexico tomorrow.
300 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 A weak upper low will continue to slide southeast across the region this morning, embedded within northwest flow aloft. An isolated snow shower or two is not out of the question across the east today on the backside of the upper low as it departs the area. Temperatures today will be very similar to yesterday with highs in the low to mid 30s across the Turtle Mountains and vicinity, to the low to mid 40s over the southwest part of the state. Tonight's lows will dip down into the low to mid 20s.
Most locations around northern Arizona are 5 to 15 degrees cooler right now than they were at this time yesterday. Nevertheless, some areas downslope (southwest) of the high terrain will continue to see breezy conditions through the night. A trough will continue to remain across Arizona through late tonight before it starts to move quickly to the east on Friday. As a result, we will continue to see some gusty northeast winds and cooler temperatures across the area. Winds will be strongest downwind of the higher terrain.
159 AM MST Fri Nov 10 2023 Across the region this morning, skies are clear as high pressure continues to move across the area. From the latest RAP40 500mb analysis, the region is currently under NW flow aloft as a broad open trough pushes slowly eastward, with an amplified ridge over the western portion of the country making a slow trudge into the Rockies.
326 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 Unseasonably warm and dry weather today will transition to cloudy and very cool weather with periods of rain for the weekend as a cold front drops south.
Dewpoints are in the lower 70s due to the slightly south of east breezes. The forecast calls for near nil rain chances and lows in the lower to mid 70s. High pressure centered just to the east of northern Florida will slide east into the western North Atlantic and broaden over the next several days.
The strongest radiational cooling this morning will be across northern Oklahoma where winds have gone calm under the clear skies with near to subfreezing temperatures. Latest Mesonet obs showing the air a bit moister across northcentral Oklahoma than latest HRRR and NAM guidance is suggesting, so cannot rule out the possibility of light patchy frost developing there in near freezing temperatures prior to sunrise. Our southwest flow aloft will be increasing some mid-level cloudiness from New Mexico & Western Texas into and across the Southern Plains later this afternoon which could keep afternoon temperatures (lower 60s) slightly cooler than climatically average. Although light easterly winds Friday night, the persisting cloud cover should keep low temperatures a bit warmer in the lower to mid 40s.
The passing of this wave during the early part of the day will help draw slightly cooler air and associated cloud cover within the thermal trough into southeast Michigan. This will allow some greater insolation across the southern CWA where high temperatures should reach into the low 50s. Dry lower levels will be a limiting factor for any precipitation associated with a southward advancing cold front this evening. Any precipitation during this time would likely fall as a rain ptype given warmer surface temperatures and moisture depth likely staying below the DGZ. If clouds hold on, temperatures may hold many locations to right around freezing. High pressure ridge builds into the region in the low levels with mostly zonal or low amplitude flow in the mid to upper levels.
310 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 A cold front will bring some more rain or snow showers and below average temperatures today and tonight. A cold front is expected to cross the forecast area today, bringing yet again more showery precipitation.
Pressure gradient tightens across eastern Kansas into far western Missouri keeping temperatures slightly warmer than areas farther east.
The cold front is draped in a similar manner this morning and will progress to the southeast bringing a more seasonable November airmass with it.
1236 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 High pressure will extend across the region through Friday.
320 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 High pressure to afford a dry weekend with highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Attendant cold front to trail through CWA with modest low level cold advection through today which should temper highs a few degrees in comparison to yesterday.
Another cold night tonight, especially for the normally colder valleys to the south and east of Tucson including the Sulphur Springs Valley where temperatures will drop to around freezing. This will try to draw some moisture northward but based on the location of the trough and the flow pattern, we now expect any deeper moisture to remain to our south and east.
(Rest of tonight) This evening, a cold front has pushed southeast across the local forecast area.
Falkinham (Issued 217 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023) Tonight and Friday: It is very windy this afternoon thanks to low pressure tracking across Ontario and high pressure building into the Plains. Look for winds to diminish overnight as the low departs and the pressure gradient over WI relaxes. The 925mb temps only top out around -2 to 0C Friday, so we will be cooler tomorrow than today, with highs in the lower 40s. Winds will be much less gusty tomorrow as high pressure moves in.
1006 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 High pressure will extend across the region through Friday.
225 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Key Messages: Today will be a cooler day, with highs a few degrees below normal for a change. A cold front is still working through our eastern counties as of 2 AM.
High pressure will provide a dry and cool weekend. Models continue to show colder air north of the stalled boundary, just cold enough to support snow in the higher elevations of WV, mainly Tucker county. Model QPF is light and SLRs are low but there may just enough snowfall to whiten the ground on the highest peaks. An upper level trough will push a weak cold front through the region tonight.
- Clearing skies and dry air move in with high pressure. The Ohio Valley is situated in the right entrance region of an upper-level jet moving northeast and a surge of moisture from the ArkLaTex region traveling isentropically over the cold front that passed through yesterday. Broad high pressure will begin to build into the region, allowing for a drier airmass and light winds. High temperature today will be in the low-mid 60s. High pressure will continue to grow over the region allowing for continued clear skies, light winds, and dry air.
High pressure and a dry airmass will build into the region through the weekend. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will sag southeast into our area through this afternoon.
Low pressure will move from Ontario into Quebec tonight, well to the north of the GRR forecast area. The moisture depth is progged to barely reach into the DGZ so its unlikely that we will see impacts, especially with surface temperatures struggling to fall below freezing. The high res models and SPC HREF LPMM suggest the typical area along and west of US-131 will be favored for measurable qpf. As a result we will feature the highest POPs for that area, mainly later Friday afternoon into Friday night. - Will keep it dry Sat night into early Sun Models are showing a warm front lifting northward through the CWA then.
1049 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) A stream of Pacific moisture aloft continues to be ushered into south central Texas between the subtropical ridge centered over the northern Caribbean and a trough to our west that will never really reach our region. At the surface, a cold front will be exiting southward out of our region this afternoon, but temperatures and dew points will be slow to cool further.
905 PM PST Thu Nov 9 2023 High pressure over the Southwest will bring warm, sunny days and clear cool nights this weekend.
256 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 A cold front across the North Carolina today will be the focus for rain over most of our area.
1226 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 A cold front moved south and east of Long Island Thursday evening, as high pressure was building to the west.
The surface reflection was via a weak cold front which was analyzed just northwest of Eureka at 10.
1223 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 Unseasonably warm and dry weather will continue into Friday as high pressure moves farther off the Southeast coast.
200 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 * Cooler and dry weather. A cold front is moving through the area this morning. Low temps this morning are still expected to reach the lower 30s for most areas, warmer in Chicago. Lows tonight will drop into mid/upper 20s for most areas, warmer in Chicago.
Weakening Pacific cold front will produce only scattered light rain and snow showers over northern zones overnight and Friday, then into central and eastern Idaho Friday afternoon.
Cold front is making its way coastward late tonight, and currently is roughly over the northern portions of the Houston metro. (This evening through Friday Night) We are seeing the last of the warm/humid air this afternoon ahead of a cold front now pushing into southeastern TX. For coastal areas /south of I10/, don't expect much improvement for the next 24-36 hrs with max temperatures 20 or so degrees cooler Friday than today.
A high pressure system will set up over the Ohio Valley this weekend, keeping winds light and temperatures within a seasonable range.
Water vapor imagery depicts dry air over Colorado, with an area of low pressure to our southwest. This leaves us under split flow with weak ridging and northwest flow to our north and southwest flow ahead of the wave to our south. Daytime highs look to be near or just a couple of degrees below normal for most locations, with mid to upper 50s across the lower Arkansas River Valley, low to mid 50s for mountain valleys, El Paso County, and the Raton Mesa.
A mid-level trough of low pressure and an associated secondary cold front will bring additional rain chances to the Mid-South Saturday into Saturday night.
515 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 * Cooler and dry weather. A cold front is moving through the area this morning. Low temps this morning are still expected to reach the lower 30s for most areas, warmer in Chicago. Lows tonight will drop into mid/upper 20s for most areas, warmer in Chicago.
An upper-level low pressure area remains located over northern Arizona, maintaining the cool temperatures today. Mostly clear skies and light surface winds have contributed to the brisk morning with much of northern Arizona near to well below freezing. The trough's exit later today will signal the end of precipitation chances and a return of light, variable winds.
In the meantime, a short wave ridge axis was sliding into western Montana. In the meantime, the aforementioned ridge axis will slide over our area today leading to seasonal temps and dry conditions. The flow remains progressive, and another weak short wave will quickly follow that ridge axis into our west this evening.
Some flurries will be possible with the low clouds today, mainly in the Devils Lake Basin, but no accumulation is expected. Temperatures tomorrow will rise into the 30s and 40s area wide as the ridge begins to set up in our area. Key Messages: 1) Ridging aloft leaves little opportunity for impactful weather.
High pressure and a dry airmass will build into the region through the weekend. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will sag southeast into our area through this afternoon. High pressure at the surface will keep dry weather across the middle Ohio Valley through the weekend.
(Today through Saturday) The main challenge for the short term is exactly how far south a cold front will push into the CWA through Saturday. The cold front is currently situated across northern GA.
401 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Today and Tonight: Rain will continue across portions of the region today and tonight as west-southwesterly flow aloft lifts moisture over a cold front that is oozing southward to the Gulf Coast. At this early morning hour, the cold front extended from roughly Alexandria, LA northeastward through Meridian, MS. Areas in the Pine Belt of southeast MS will not fare much warmer, but should start the morning out in vicinity of the frontal boundary and should record at least morning high temps around 65-70 before rain and the cold front's air mass drop temps into the lower 60s by late afternoon. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the main upper-level low pressure system spinning over AZ/NM this morning, and a nice plume of 1.
618 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 - Cooler but still mild to end the work week, a few sprinkles possible south tonight.
An H7 low remains over the Desert Southwest while a trough axis moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest. The lower atmosphere, however, is still expected to remain fairly dry below about 750 mb.
The Rolling Plains may see more periods of sun break through occasionally, especially over the northern Rolling Plains into the afternoon, helping to lift temperatures into the low 60s. Areas on the Caprock will be similar to yesterday or slightly warmer, in the low to mid 50s. The progressive trough to our west is just now beginning to lift north and east and will quickly flatten as it passes over New Mexico during the day today.
An upper-level trough was located over the Desert Southwest, while Texas was under southwest flow aloft. The cold airmass near the surface should remain in place today as high pressure over the central Plains continues to build in. Temperatures north of I-20 should warm to the low 60s with more sunshine expected there. The upper trough over the Desert Southwest should approach west Texas this morning and provide some mid-level lift before becoming absorbed in the prevailing flow.
High pressure will provide a dry and cool weekend. Quick update to increase snow accumulation to 1-2 inches across the higher terrain area of Tucker county WV, based on web cams and near term model data. The exception is for areas near and south of I 68, where web cams and surface observations indicate rain is falling, with snow across the higher elevations. These cameras show some minor accumulations in the higher terrain. This rain, and snow in the higher terrain (with 850mb temps just below 0,) should continue this morning as the wave tracks along a quasi stationary front over the Mid Atlantic region. Up to an inch of wet snow is possible along the highest ridge tops of Tucker county WV before ending. An upper level trough will push a weak cold front through the region tonight.
Snow showers and precip chances: Lake effect snow showers are expected today into this evening across north central WI as northwest flow continues across relatively warmer waters of western Lake Superior. Delta T's forecast to be in the low to mid teens with water temps between 6-9C and 850mb temps around -7C, plus a saturated DGZ, decent inversion heights to around 5000 ft and a weak trough overhead will provide favorable conditions for snow showers. The lake effect activity will diminish this evening as high pressure builds into the western Great Lakes and flow becomes weak and turns more to the west. The clouds and colder air aloft will bring below normal temps today, with highs ranging from the mid 30s north to the lower half of the 40s south/east.
430 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 Cooler to end to the week with intermittent light rain most likely in the far southern tier this morning into the early afternoon.
Satellite and radar are indicating that the cold front is currently along the Idaho border near Washington and Oregon. Snow levels will be relatively high today, ranging between 4000 to 5000 feet, keeping accumulating snow mainly confined to the higher terrain. The higher terrain of northwest Montana has the best chance of receiving a decent amount of snow, with Marias and Lookout passes expected to get an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow. The higher terrain, especially along the Continental Divide, have a 60 to 90 percent chance of experiencing wind gusts in excess of 40 mph.
Pressure gradient tightens across eastern Kansas into far western Missouri keeping temperatures slightly warmer than areas farther east. Skies are expected to clear through the overnight hours as a weak upper level ridge builds into the region.
60" with the higher values co-located within that heavier band of rain.