Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A 500mb ridge starts to build back into the Indiana area, once again resuming the upper-level northwesterly flow and weak surface wind. Northwest flow aloft very early in the period will quickly become more amplified this week, as the upper level ridge restrengthens over the southwestern CONUS, with at least a couple of fairly potent upper level lows, particularly for the time of year, sliding through the region.
The high dewpoint air that pooled near the boundary down south yesterday has overspread the region today with more of a southerly flow in place at the surface. Combine the high dewpoint air with expected high temps in the mid to upper 90s under mostly sunny skies, and you get heat indices in the dangerous to very dangerous range.
(This evening through Saturday) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon, on the western periphery of the upper level ridge, mainly across the Permian Basin and South Plains. The upper level ridge that is currently centered across Southeast Texas will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas on Saturday.
There are previous outflows lingering near the Lower Keys, in conjunction with a relatively dormant cloud line. This will cede real estate to the festering trough over the Bahamas. Undulations in moisture/dry air will ride the southern flank of the subtropical ridge. This all bodes well for accumulating rains, less intense temperatures, and cooler SSTs. High pressure centered to the east of Bermuda and extending west southwest across Florida will support gentle to moderate, east to southeast breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys for the next several days.
234 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Upper ridging builds over the region this weekend resulting in hot and mainly dry weather conditions.
222 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Cold front has settled along southern portions of the area this afternoon where cannot completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing in the late afternoon and evening hours. Confidence is on the low side for severe threat on Saturday, but SPC has basically areas south of Interstate 70 in a Marginal Risk and a Slight Risk just to the south.
334 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Low pressure over the Great Lakes tonight will move into Ontario on Saturday and promote mainly afternoon thunderstorm development.
Broad mass flux within building H85 theta-e ridging should yield iso storms aft 21Z and persisting perhaps into mid evening far east although generally capped by limited sfc based instability. Otherwise cold frontal zone lags Sat with secondary, more vigorous theta-e ridging developing by aftn w/iso-sct mainly aftn storms generally US30 south. Thereafter quiet and seasonably cool as Canadian high pressure builds in through Wed before dislodging ahead of another vigorous nrn stream disturbance digging into the nrn lakes late week.
250 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 High pressure will sink to the south through the first half of the weekend while a weak cold front approaches from the west.
215 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2023 So far fairly quiet convection wise, with just a few light showers over the higher mountains, highest coverage over Park county. Going with the higher shower chances over southern portions of the county warning area for later this afternoon and through the evening hours. Despite the higher moisture levels, the instability is marginal with rather skinny CAPE profiles but low levels still on the dry side. Temperatures will be a little cooler Saturday afternoon given higher amounts of cloud cover.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Once again models do not show any change in the position or strength of the 500mb level ridge sitting over much of Texas. Forecast continues to trend with persistence with our daily high temperatures Saturday ranging from the low 90s at the beach to 98-110 inland.
103 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 A ridge of high pressure will build over the region today through the weekend.
1247 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 (Today through Saturday Night ) Upper pattern this morning remains dominated by upper level high pressure extending from central Texas to the Eastern Gulf with weak troughing just to the east of the state. The aforementioned upper ridge will begin to expand to the north with time. As such, the best rain chances will be pushed into the north as the ridge expands.
345 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 An upper level low will move east of the region overnight. High pressure from the west will cross the area Saturday then move east Saturday night.
309 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Quiet conditions are in the forecast for tonight as global guidance highlights the upper ridge remaining in a somewhat stationary position over the southeast US. Areas along and south of I-20 could potentially see afternoon highs up to low 100s due to thermal profiles showing drier air reaching the lower levels and dewpoints reaching into the lower 70s.
144 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Most recent Water Vapor and upper air analysis shows northwest flow over our region, with an upper low over central Canada and mild ridging over the Rockies. Mostly sunny skies this afternoon with breezy northwest winds and temperatures in the upper 70s over the Black hills, while the western SD plains range from the low 80s to low 90s.
Discussion: Some weak pulse type storms continue across the western half of the forecast area associated with the upper level energy dropping through the region behind the main cold front that has moved through much of the forecast area, currently stretching from NE MN into west central MN.
(Rest of today through Saturday) Robust mid-level ridging influenced by the western Atlantic high will remain in control of the South Florida weather pattern today.
Other chances at storm development will occur this evening in western north Texas along the dryline, and near a slowly lifting warm front in northwest Oklahoma.
949 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 An upper level low will move east of the region overnight. High pressure from the west will cross the area Saturday then move east Saturday night.
Dry air aloft and a ridge axis located to the south of our area has limited our rain chances once again today. Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the lower 90s early this evening with overnight lows only expected to fall into the upper 70s inland and lower 80s along the coast.
Meanwhile, cooler and cloudier conditions will prevail near the coast with continued onshore flow and marine influences.
/22/ Quiet conditions are in the forecast for tonight as global guidance highlights the upper ridge remaining in a somewhat stationary position over the southeast US. Areas along and south of I-20 could potentially see afternoon highs up to low 100s due to thermal profiles showing drier air reaching the lower levels and dewpoints reaching into the lower 70s.
910 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 High pressure will sink to the south through the first half of the weekend while a weak cold front approaches from the west.
506 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Most recent Water Vapor and upper air analysis shows northwest flow over our region, with an upper low over central Canada and mild ridging over the Rockies. Mostly sunny skies this afternoon with breezy northwest winds and temperatures in the upper 70s over the Black hills, while the western SD plains range from the low 80s to low 90s.
Currently - The Keys reside within a region of fairly weak pressure gradients with a ridge across Florida split, troughing further north, and an inverted trough over the Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Over the past few hours, this activity has been concentrated in and around the Lower Keys and deep gulf. The usual nocturnal confluent flow should be augmented some by the interaction of the ridge to our north and troughing off to the southeast. The combination of ridging across Florida and troughing to our southeast will maintain light breezes out of the northeast to east through the overnight period.
654 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Low pressure, over the Great Lakes, will move into Ontario on Saturday and promote mainly afternoon thunderstorm development.
734 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 A warm front will bring a return of humidity and storms to the region on Saturday.
732 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 High pressure will be in control the next couple of days.
658 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend within a moist and unstable airmass with successively stronger perturbations/trofs aloft moving through as well as low level/surface foci later into the weekend.
625 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Quiet conditions are in the forecast for tonight as global guidance highlights the upper ridge remaining in a somewhat stationary position over the southeast US. Areas along and south of I-20 could potentially see afternoon highs up to low 100s due to thermal profiles showing drier air reaching the lower levels and dewpoints reaching into the lower 70s.
The high resolution models show little precipitation this evening through about 09Z later tonight, then an increase to scattered coverage over the southern two-thirds of the CWA by 12Z Saturday morning. So far fairly quiet convection wise, with just a few light showers over the higher mountains, highest coverage over Park county. Going with the higher shower chances over southern portions of the county warning area for later this afternoon and through the evening hours. Despite the higher moisture levels, the instability is marginal with rather skinny CAPE profiles but low levels still on the dry side. Temperatures will be a little cooler Saturday afternoon given higher amounts of cloud cover.
649 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) Once again models do not show any change in the position or strength of the 500mb level ridge sitting over much of Texas. Forecast continues to trend with persistence with our daily high temperatures Saturday ranging from the low 90s at the beach to 98-110 inland.
634 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 An upper level low will move east of the region overnight. High pressure from the west will cross the area Saturday then move east Saturday night.
648 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon, on the western periphery of the upper level ridge, mainly across the Permian Basin and South Plains. The upper level ridge that is currently centered across Southeast Texas will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas on Saturday.
Weak high pressure at the surface has spread across much of the southeast U.
Eventually a more defined warm advection corridor is expected to focus storms later tonight through tomorrow morning with the highest chances remaining across NE OK through NW AR.
818 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Upper ridging builds over the region this weekend resulting in hot and mainly dry weather conditions.
Tonight through Saturday night Mid-level moisture and instability will increase in coverage this afternoon ahead of a weak cut-off low pressure system anchored along the southern CA coast. The aforementioned low stalls out through the day Saturday, while an upper ridge remains over the southern U.
An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this weekend, mainly late Saturday.
633 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) Forecast remains unchanged as the mid-upper level ridge remains parked over the region. Always remember to look before you lock! With the ridge maintaining a firm grip over SE Texas, not expecting anything in the way of precipitation in the near-term.
1000 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 High pressure will be in control the next couple of days.
1250 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Urban flooding issues will continue early Saturday morning along the warm front. Severe weather chances will increase Saturday afternoon and evening along or ahead of a cold front an upper- lvl trough continues to track through the Great Lakes. 12:30am update: One to two and half inches of rain have fallen over the last 3 hours as convection initiated along the warm front. Previous Discussion: As low moves out of Michigan into Ontario, a cold front will push across Ohio.
Heat remains the primary concern today as high pressure remains draped across the southern U.
141 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Upper ridging builds over the region this weekend resulting in hot and mainly dry weather conditions.
(Today through Sunday Night ) Overall setup looks to remain generally the same today and tomorrow across the state as H500 ridging situated just to the south persists.
1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon, on the western periphery of the upper level ridge, mainly across the Permian Basin and South Plains. The upper level ridge that is currently centered across Southeast Texas will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas on Saturday.
203 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Urban flooding issues will continue early Saturday morning along the warm front. Severe weather chances will increase Saturday afternoon and evening along or ahead of a cold front an upper- lvl trough continues to track through the Great Lakes. 12:30am update: One to two and half inches of rain have fallen over the last 3 hours as convection initiated along the warm front. Previous Discussion: As low moves out of Michigan into Ontario, a cold front will push across Ohio.
302 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Showers and thunderstorms move into the area late today as a cold front approaches from the west. The front moves through and high pressure noses in for the beginning of the work week.
Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be a bit cooler this afternoon compared to yesterday with increased cloud cover expected. Widespread triple- digit heat is still expected across the lower elevations with 90s expected in the higher elevations.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Saturday/ Subsidence under the ridge late this evening is keeping the sky clear across North and Central Texas. A few storms on the northern periphery of the ridge will remain near and north of the Red River but may send an outflow into the northwest zones overnight. It will still be warm overnight with lows in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Much like the past several days, locations along and west of I-35/I-35W will maintain the highest threat, so we will keep the Red Flag Warning in effect through 10 PM Saturday with a likely continuation into Sunday since conditions are not expected to change much. Subsidence under the ridge should keep North and Central rain/storm free through Saturday night.
(Saturday through Sunday) The center of the aforementioned upper ridge will settle directly over the Four State Region today. Otherwise, subsidence from the ridge will keep dry conditions across the region and generally mostly sunny skies. The upper ridge will remain parked over the region on Sunday.
Near persistent high temperatures, perhaps a degree cooler in some spots today and Sunday.
Colder air behind the front will bring pleasant temperatures with highs being on the lower end of the normal range.
A decent outflow from storms over portions of the Navajo and Hopi Reservations, moved through the San Francisco Peaks and along the Mogollon Rim earlier this evening, resulting in cooler temperatures and a breezy northeast wind with gusts of up to 35 mph.
1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) Once again models do not show any change in the position or strength of the 500mb level ridge sitting over much of Texas. Forecast continues to trend with persistence with our daily high temperatures Saturday ranging from the low 90s at the beach to 98-110 inland.
(Today and tonight) Little change has occurred in the synoptic pattern over the past 24 hours as a blocking pattern persists over the southern CONUS, with upper level ridging anchored over the western Gulf Coast and an upper level cutoff low remaining off the CA coast. With 500mb heights very similar to or only a bit lower than yesterday have sided with the higher end of guidance for high temperatures today, especially off the Caprock.
It will get more interesting late tonight when a trough drops down from the northwest and brings a cold front through the region. This will lead to precipitation chances ranging from 20-50% mainly from Billings and east with the highest chances near the border with the Dakotas. Temperatures cool significantly Sunday into the low to high 70s after the trough and cold front passage.
1225 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023 An upper level low will move east of the region overnight. High pressure from the west will cross the area Saturday then move east Saturday night. Low pressure will lift northwest of the region Sunday pulling a cold front through.
A weakness will develop over Florida in the deep- layered ridge of high pressure which will allow for increased convective coverage later today into tonight. As the trough moves through the region tonight into Sunday, convection will linger beyond the normal diurnal cycle with coverage that will peak from southeast to northwest.
2) More severe storms possible Sunday afternoon/night as a cold front moves through the area. All of this activity is ahead of a weak cold front that will move through the region, stalling out just south of the forecast area during the day on Saturday. Byrd On Sunday the stalled frontal boundary over southern Missouri will begin to lift northward as a warm front. This will be the focus for another round of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon through Sunday night as an associated cold front moves through the region.
1025 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Most recent Water Vapor and upper air analysis shows northwest flow over our region, with an upper low over central Canada and mild ridging over the Rockies. Mostly sunny skies this afternoon with breezy northwest winds and temperatures in the upper 70s over the Black hills, while the western SD plains range from the low 80s to low 90s. Best chance for severe will be in south central and central SD where a low level jet sets up ahead of the cold front late Saturday night and overnight. Sunday will be cooler, with highs only in the low to mid 60s over the Black hills, and upper 60s to low 70s throughout the western SD plains and northeast Wyoming.
The low level conditions remain very moist into Saturday. An believe it or not, the low level thicknesses increase.
A Canadian cold front associated with this disturbance will also cause westerly winds to increase and become gusty again by 18Z, but they will shift more northerly behind the front from around 20Z in the north through around 03Z in the south; the strongest post-frontal wind gusts will likely be in the 25 to 35 kt range over the plains east of a KCTB-KGTF line.
Temperatures in the low to mid 80s combined with dew points in the 60s will provide ample surface based instability for storms.
By far the best chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend appears to arrive Sunday night as upper level energy combines with the approach of a cold frontal boundary.
1100 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) Forecast remains unchanged as the mid-upper level ridge remains parked over the region. Always remember to look before you lock! With the ridge maintaining a firm grip over SE Texas, not expecting anything in the way of precipitation in the near-term.
1147 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend within a moist and unstable airmass with successively stronger perturbations/trofs aloft moving through as well as low level/surface foci later into the weekend. We will close out the weekend with a rather strong upper trof digging southeastward across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Sunday. This will be accompanied by a strong Summer-time cold front with a focus for strong to severe convection.
Rain chances are near zero, as the upper ridge in the Gulf expands farther northwest into Texas.
Presently, a few clusters of sub-severe storms drifting along OK/KS border and through northwest AR in zone of WAA on northern edge of upper ridge.
Satellite imagery this morning shows our upper low with remnants of Tropical Storm Eugene spinning just offshore. As we progress through the weekend, models indicate an upper level ridge retrograding westward and setting up through the southwest US which will bring much warmer temperatures back to the region.
311 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023 As of 8Z, an high pressure west of the CWA is producing light and variable winds, along with less humid conditions.
Then cold front will surge southward through Central/North-central MT Saturday afternoon/evening with widely scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder along and behind the front.
403 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Previous evening was fairly active within the high PWAT (1. A few moving parts midday as the associated cold front gets forced across Southeast Michigan from 16-22Z which is more likely to be a dry FROPA given the subsaturated mid-level westerly flow. Once the cold front clears, moisture becomes insufficient and the transition to a subsident regime ensues for all sites into the overnight hours. Focus then shifts upstream to the well advertised upper low peeling off the northern stream jet.
345 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023 1) A pleasant day is in store for our area today, with sunshine and dry conditions expected After the ongoing showers and thunderstorms across our far southern and northern forecast area diminishes early this morning, an area of high pressure and mid-level ridging will build into the Upper Midwest region. This will lead to a pretty pleasant day, with plenty of sunshine due to dry air and high temperatures warming to the lower to middle 80s. Despite some deep boundary layer mixing to around 850 to 800 mb, winds will hover only around 10 to 15 mph from the north to northwesterly direction after a weak cold front passes through this morning. The dry conditions will continue through tonight, with lows dipping to the lower to middle 60s.
- There is a Slight Risk for severe weather Sunday ahead of a strong cold front that is forecast to move through the area. Strong warm air advection ahead of the low could lead to early morning precipitation across the area.
Wind shift to west-southwesterly with some increase in magnitude and gustiness today while a cold front slowly advances across southeast Michigan. Previous evening was fairly active within the high PWAT (1. A few moving parts midday as the associated cold front gets forced across Southeast Michigan from 16-22Z which is more likely to be a dry FROPA given the subsaturated mid-level westerly flow. Once the cold front clears, moisture becomes insufficient and the transition to a subsident regime ensues for all sites into the overnight hours. Focus then shifts upstream to the well advertised upper low peeling off the northern stream jet.
From synopsis, high pressure centered to the east of Bermuda and extending west southwest across Florida will support gentle to moderate, east to southeast breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys for the next several days.
639 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023 (Saturday through Sunday) The center of the aforementioned upper ridge will settle directly over the Four State Region today. Otherwise, subsidence from the ridge will keep dry conditions across the region and generally mostly sunny skies. The upper ridge will remain parked over the region on Sunday.
As of 8Z, an high pressure west of the CWA is producing light and variable winds, along with less humid conditions.
631 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023 (Today and tonight) Little change has occurred in the synoptic pattern over the past 24 hours as a blocking pattern persists over the southern CONUS, with upper level ridging anchored over the western Gulf Coast and an upper level cutoff low remaining off the CA coast. With 500mb heights very similar to or only a bit lower than yesterday have sided with the higher end of guidance for high temperatures today, especially off the Caprock.