Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler weather will persist with overnight lows expected to be near or below freezing for many locations above 6000 feet Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move through the region this evening as the axis of the trough starts to pass through northern Arizona. Skies will remain cloudy from around Flagstaff north through the next few hours, before starting to clear as the trough lifts through the region. An upper-level trough is gradually working eastward today with its axis located along the western Arizona border. Temperatures today and overnight will be roughly 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal norms through Wednesday with morning lows approaching or dropping just below freezing for areas above 6000 feet.
Another clear night with light variable breezes is in store with high pressure centered near Pittsburgh. Dry and warm weather continues in the short term as persistent upper level ridging keeps the airmass 'locked' in place. Stout capping in the low/mid levels will keep any precip from developing. Forecast soundings reveal slightly warmer air advecting into the low levels during the day tomorrow as well as deeper mixing within the boundary layer, which should result in afternoon high temps being a couple degrees warmer compared to the last couple days. This will keep mild nighttime temperatures (mid 50s to mid 60s) and warm daytime highs (80s) in place through Wednesday night, but then things will begin to change as an upper trough slides east displacing the upper ridge.
We're well on track to abnormally warm highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees once again this afternoon with ridging and dry air remaining entrenched across the Southeast.
(Today and tonight) Dry conditions will continue this afternoon as high pressure remains in control. A slight uptick in moisture later this evening from the east will lead to slightly warmer overnight temperatures Tuesday night with lows dropping into the low to mid 60s by Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, ridging surface and aloft will produce another pleasant night across the region for early October. Discussion: Persistence forecast is the name of the game again today with the Omega blocking pattern overhead leading to above normal temperatures and generally calm weather.
These breezes are due to high pressure building in behind the decaying frontal boundary currently draped across our area. Breezy conditions will persist across our area as the high along the Eastern Seaboard controls our wind pattern. Temperatures and dewpoints will unfortunately remain about the same as the lower levels of the atmosphere remain relatively moist. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges, especially during the times of high tide. From synopsis, the high pressure building in behind the recent frontal passage will promote fresh northeast breezes through tonight.
441 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Two more very warm days are ahead before rain and a strong cold front follow later this week.
215 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The main trough axis that has been impacting the local the weather the past couple days will be sweeping across the state today. This favorable NW upslope flow, along with instability from the trough will bring another round of accumulation across the western mountain this morning, shifting across central WY this afternoon. The snow chances will also spread into the Bighorn Range today as the trough moves east, which will also see some snow accumulation. For Wednesday, the trough will be well to the east, with strong northwesterly flow setting up across the state in its wake. For the most part, this brings mostly clear skies and slightly warmer temperatures.
124 AM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Low pressure will continue to slowly exit today with high pressure returning for the rest of the week. Cloud cover will decrease tonight and Wednesday with sunny and warmer afternoons lasting through the weekend. For the rest of western NV, a band of stratocumulus may result in some broken-overcast skies for awhile this morning with clouds breaking up this afternoon/evening as drier air works southward in the wake of the exiting low pressure system. Clearing skies will lead to overall colder temperatures tonight into Wednesday morning with some patchy freezing fog for Sierra valleys. Also, a strengthening easterly gradient will bring some gusty winds tonight and Wednesday morning across the northern Sierra ridgelines (gusts 30-40 mph) with some of this momentum possibly mixing down onto Lake Tahoe at times (gusts 20-25 mph).
248 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The trough axis of the midlevel low pressure system is currently tracking over the forecast area. The trough passage has resulted in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms that stretch from the Four Corners into central Colorado. Snow levels have dropped to 9-10 kft so the higher passes in the southern and central mountains may end up with more slushy snow accumulation. Places that had clouds and precip yesterday will be slightly warmer today given more sunshine. This is due to the deep, high amplitude trough over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. and a large, sprawling ridge over the Western U.
Otherwise, a large dome of high pressure remains anchored across the middle/southern Atlantic states, while an upper ridge pattern remains in place over much of the SE region.
1053 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Water vapor imagery shows an amplified upper level pattern with ridging stationed over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS and deep troughing swirling over the Intermountain West. The influence of the ridge and high pressure at the surface will keep conditions dry and warm through tomorrow night. High temperatures tomorrow are still expected to reach the upper 80s for most locations, with some locations peaking in the low 90s. The biggest difference in tomorrow's forecast as opposed to the past few days will be the increase in mid-level cloud cover ahead of an impending cold front. Jaja Although showers will arrive at our westernmost doorstep late Tuesday night and increase through the day Wednesday, the actual cold front and the bulk of the precipitation are not expected until Wednesday night.
Current water vapor imagery shows a stream of moisture pushing eastward into Colorado by an incoming deep trough. Showers/storms decrease across the high country and I-25 corridor mid-evening and exit the plains by midnight as the cold front moves through.
125 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Dry high pressure will dominate the region through the week. A cold front approaches late week with much cooler weather late this weekend.
220 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure will remain in place over the eastern United States through mid week.
Assuming the atmosphere does recover quickly then thunderstorms is currently expected develop after 1pm near a dryline and cold front that will be located somewhere in our county warning area. A few tornadoes will be possible later this afternoon (5-10%), especially if we can get more backed winds at the surface enhancing the low level shear. Once thunderstorms develop they will move east southeast as the dryline/cold front moves across southwest Kansas. The severe thunderstorm potential will decrease after sunset from northwest to southeast as the cold front crosses southwest Kansas and cooler/drier air returns. The NAEFS and ECMWF has not changed much with the 850mb mean temperature trends late week compared to yesterday but it does appear that the NBM guidance is now picking up on the reinforcement of cooler air invading the central plains late week/early this weekend.
1219 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 (The rest of tonight) High level clouds continued to stream eastward into Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this evening ahead of a low pressure system currently over the Desert Southwest U. Overnight tonight will remain quiet as the western periphery of the high pressure ridge continues hold over the region. the ridge begins to shift southeast with a portion of the much anticipated low pressure system moving out into the Plains. Ahead of the low.
High pressure building over the coming days will result in a gradual warming trend with dry conditions.
The upper ridge that is centered over the area will slowly drift east tomorrow. Forecasted highs today solidly in the mid to even some localized upper 80s reflect that as these values are a tad below record highs for early October, which still hold in the lower 90s.
01Z temperatures ranged anywhere from the lower 60s to the mid 70s in and around the Indy metro. - More patchy fog overnight into Tuesday morning - Continued sunny with unseasonably warm temperatures Tuesday Visible satellite loop was showing clear skies across all of central Indiana under the influence of a ridge over high pressure from the eastern Great Lakes to the western Gulf of Mexico. This has resulted in well above normal temperatures in the lower to mid 80s over central Indiana. Stagnant synoptic pattern will remain in place as the high pressure ridge continues to provide subsidence and along with a very dry column, per BUFKIT soundings, will result in sunny skies and unseasonably warm temperatures again Tuesday.
- Cooler temperatures are forecast to end the week and the first frost of the season is possible this weekend. Today: The 90 degree temperatures will come to an end as a vigorous mid- level trough will eject across the Plains. Chances for precipitation will greatly increase after 1 PM as both low and deep layer shear increase in strength with the approaching mid-level trough. Robust warm air advection should increase dewpoint temperatures into the low and mid 60s.
South to southwest return flow around the high will draw in an airmass characterized by 850mb temperatures to 15-17C into mid- week. Subsidence has supported mostly clear skies and is also helping the daytime highs climb mostly into the low 80s. Temperatures still expected to land in the low to mid 80s. Longwave troughing arrives across the central United States Wednesday pushing the ridge and high pressure off the east coast and bringing deep southwesterly flow across Michigan. Higher mixing depths are expected Wednesday under the same thermal ridge.
408 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure with drier air remains aloft over the region early this morning with surface ridging to our north also extending over the state. For the weekend, an upper-level trough will move over the eastern half of the country with an associated cold front trying to move through the local area. Global models are still depicting some timing discrepancies, but they do seem to agree that moisture will be limited with this boundary, so rain chances remain on the low side.
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Persistent ridging over the area will continue through the short term period as a large longwave trough slowly traverses over the western US. At the surface, high pressure will also remain in place through the period with east-northeast winds at the surface. Maximum temperatures will reach the upper 80s areawide with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s, perhaps dropping into the upper 50s in our northernmost AL and GA counties.
Big upper ridge overhead with 588 dam heights continues to support well above normal temps and mostly clear skies. Highs on Tuesday should be a couple degrees warmer than today as southerly return flow strengthens a bit and slightly deeper mixing occurs. Some increase in high level clouds is expected on Tuesday night as the upper ridge axis shifts east.
Otherwise, today looks very similar to yesterday as an upper ridge remains over the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley, which will lead to another sunny day and highs well into the 80s. Highs should be near or slightly lower than yesterday, however, as the ridge will be weakening through the day due to the approaching upper trough over the western US. The upper ridge really weakens and gets squashed to our south on Wednesday as the H5 trough swings out into the Plains and Midwest, with the increasing cloud cover ahead of the trough plus falling heights aloft knocking highs down several degrees from today.
Beginning Tuesday, the weather will trend warmer and drier through the weekend. The rain will moisten the boundary layer with the high resolution models and NBM favoring CIGS lowering to IFR and MVFR. Moses Lake may also be on the edge of the lower stratus with a 20% chance of IFR conditions.
Most of today will be rather uneventful, aside from some increasing cloud cover associated with the approaching mid level trough spreading over the area today. This should help keep temperatures down a couple degrees from yesterday, with highs generally in the low to mid 80s expected for most this afternoon.
258 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 A cold front will stall across the area today and tonight then lift back north as a warm front on Wednesday.
This will bring another day with well above normal temps, near or just slightly below yesterday, with highs in the low to mid 80s away from Lake Michigan. Record highs are mainly in the 80s, with some of the lower records in jeopardy of being broken. upper trough will drop into the northern Plains as a cold front pushes across the state.
(Today through Wednesday) Over the course of the day today, our Omega block at the mid-levels breaks -- with the trough over the western CONUS broadening and translating eastward -- causing the dominant ridge's axis to tilt and become oriented toward New England. The combination of this ridging aloft and the broad, 1020-1025 mb high at the surface keeps our dome of warm, dry air locked in place across the eastern half of the country. High and low temperatures remain a persistence forecast, with only 1-2 degree fluctuations in each expected each day thanks to the stagnant airmass -- highs in the low-to-mid-80s, and lows near 60 (about 6-8 degrees above average for early October).
As high pressure builds over the western CONUS in the coming days, a warming trend will take hold.
536 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Deep-layer ridging remains established across much of the eastern CONUS today where daytime temperatures continue to run several degrees above average. Dry tropospheric conditions will also continue along with a large footprint of high pressure centered near the Mid Atlantic. Thus, easterly breezes are forecast today with highs in the low to upper 80s - essentially a persistence forecast. However, a footprint of high pressure and dry air will remained wedged into the Southeast, and I don't expect any meaningful change in our weather for tomorrow. Highs in the low to upper 80s remain forecast, with winds slowly becoming more southeasterly as the high pressure center moves off farther northeast.
629 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 (Today and tonight) Dry conditions will continue this afternoon as high pressure remains in control. A slight uptick in moisture later this evening from the east will lead to slightly warmer overnight temperatures Tuesday night with lows dropping into the low to mid 60s by Wednesday morning.
Upper trough that pushed through NorCal during the past weekend is currently exiting the Great Basin Region into the Rockies. Unseasonably strong upper high pressure is over the eastern Pacific and will build east across the Western States through the week.
Dewpoints are down a couple degrees, and temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s. High pressure over the eastern United States will maintain fresh to strong breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys through this afternoon.
A warming and drying trend across northern Arizona begins today as high pressure moves in from the west.
All sites are rebounding warmer now with full sunshine heating the region, so no adjustments were made. Discussion: WV satellite imagery this morning continues to show the Omega Block pattern with the upper ridge axis extending northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes.
High pressure will build over the inland Pac NW for Wed through Sat, bringing warm days and cool nights, as well as dry weather.
High pressure over the Northern Gulf will continue to support higher wave heights and longer period swell, leading to an increased Rip Current Risk and potential for minor coastal flooding.
Later today, an upper level trough will move east into the Central and northern Plain states by this evening, with the trailing portion of the trough remaining over the southern Rockies.
609 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Two more very warm days are ahead before rain and a strong cold front follow later this week.
Light shower activity mainly north of I-80 today will diminish tonight as a low pressure system moves east of the region. Today through Wednesday night Northwest flow and lingering wrap around moisture on the western periphery of the low pressure trough will bring light showers to northern Nevada today. Lows will drop into the lower 30s for much of central and northeastern Nevada tonight with slowly rising temperatures beginning Wednesday night.
The NE flow around the ridge is bringing it down. Models show it improving this afternoon, and with the ridge shifting east over the next couple of days, it should continue to improve.
632 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Key Points: * Showers and a few thunderstorms possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as cold front moves through the region.
Main upper level trough axis has moved just east of our area leaving southeast Idaho in northwesterly flow aloft.
As we head in the afternoon, model agreement continues the propagation of the trough over the Rocky Mountains and into the northern Great Plains. With this movement of the trough, models are expecting a cold front to dig south into the Panhandles around noon.
Temperatures will trend warmer Wednesday towards the end of the week into the weekend.
High pressure will build into the region beginning Wednesday, bringing a warming and drying trend through the remainder of the week.
Lowering snow levels will bring snow to the higher terrain above around 8,000 feet in the Beartooths and Bighorns. With the low pressure system moving off to the east, winds will be breezy today gusting into the 20s mph. Late Wednesday there will be a Clipper system moving to our east bringing breezy northwest winds and cooler air into the region for Wednesday night.
645 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure will remain over the region through mid-week.
47 um - blue band shows smoke from Canadian wildfires making its way around the high pressure ridge and into our area from a northeast direction. (Today and tonight) Dry conditions will continue this afternoon as high pressure remains in control. A slight uptick in moisture later this evening from the east will lead to slightly warmer overnight temperatures Tuesday night with lows dropping into the low to mid 60s by Wednesday morning.
510 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The main trough axis that has been impacting the local the weather the past couple days will be sweeping across the state today. This favorable NW upslope flow, along with instability from the trough will bring another round of accumulation across the western mountain this morning, shifting across central WY this afternoon. The snow chances will also spread into the Bighorn Range today as the trough moves east, which will also see some snow accumulation. For Wednesday, the trough will be well to the east, with strong northwesterly flow setting up across the state in its wake. For the most part, this brings mostly clear skies and slightly warmer temperatures.
632 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night ) An upper level ridge will be over the eastern half of the U. today with an upper trough over the Rockies, moving into the Plains tonight. This upper trough moves into the Mississippi River Valley Wednesday night. Strong high pressure at the surface will continue over Arkansas through tonight. A cold front will move into the Plains Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will be cooler behind the front in the lower 70s to near 90 degrees.
This low stratus should hang around until the late morning or early afternoon and help to keep temperatures a bit cooler in the lower 80s across the central portion of the forecast area.
A cold front is expected to move east through the region today. Most of the energy will be focused on the trailing cold front from the Coteau eastward and could help set the stage for severe storm development. Ahead of the front and upper trough today, temperatures will climb well above normal by about 10 to 20 degrees, though highs will top out around 80 degrees.
508 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The trough axis of the midlevel low pressure system is currently tracking over the forecast area. The trough passage has resulted in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms that stretch from the Four Corners into central Colorado. Snow levels have dropped to 9-10 kft so the higher passes in the southern and central mountains may end up with more slushy snow accumulation. Places that had clouds and precip yesterday will be slightly warmer today given more sunshine. This is due to the deep, high amplitude trough over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. and a large, sprawling ridge over the Western U.
930 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure will remain over the region through mid-week.
607 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 (Today and tonight) One last warm day across the area today as higher mid-level heights shift eastward with the approach of a large scale mid- level trough. This aforementioned trough will be responsible for active weather this afternoon and evening.
640 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure prevails through much of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal.
1022 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 A cold front will stall across northern Maine later today into tonight then lift back north in the form of a warm front Wednesday.
956 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure prevails through much of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal.
210 AM MST Tue Oct 3 2023 Dry and cooler than average temperatures are expected today through Wednesday with lighter winds.
Ridging aloft remains in control of the weather across the region yet again today. This, as high pressure at the surface remains wedged into the forecast area from the northeast.
Current forecast remains on track as surface ridging continues and hot/dry conditions persist across the region. 12Z sounding supports afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 90s. Deeper mixing will work to lower dewpoint to the low to mid 50s will allow RH values to fall between 25-35%, keeping fire weather danger across the region. Ridging aloft remains in control of the weather across the region yet again today. This, as high pressure at the surface remains wedged into the forecast area from the northeast.
225 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure will hold over the East Coast through mid week.
The aforementioned showers and increased cloud cover has kept temperatures a few degrees cooler than otherwise. (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Strong 100 kt upper level jet streak will shift into the region during the day Wednesday ahead of main upper trough axis to the west.
Heights aloft will begin to fall late tonight into Wednesday as an upper trough approaches. A substantial pattern-shift is expected in the long range, with summer-like warmth coming to and end being replaced by much cooler conditions. A trough currently over the Rocky Mountains has induced cyclogenesis across the northern Plains. The front should bring rain to much of the area followed by dramatically cooler temperatures.
1100 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The trough axis of the midlevel low pressure system is currently tracking over the forecast area. The trough passage has resulted in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms that stretch from the Four Corners into central Colorado. Snow levels have dropped to 9-10 kft so the higher passes in the southern and central mountains may end up with more slushy snow accumulation. Places that had clouds and precip yesterday will be slightly warmer today given more sunshine. This is due to the deep, high amplitude trough over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. and a large, sprawling ridge over the Western U.