Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
220 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Key messages: 1) Another pleasant night ahead 2) Warm on Monday but still comfortable humidity levels Details: Tonight: High pressure over the area will gradually slide into the Ohio Valley. Guidance is in good agreement with the momentum fields through most of the period with a closed upper level low located just north of the Great Lakes. With ridging to the west of the area, we will see the active storm track over the ridge move across our area.
Following widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday, sunshine and warmer temperatures will return to the Midsouth on Monday. The warming trend will persist through midweek, as high pressure aloft edges in from the southern plains.
The anticipated westward progression of the high pressure system that has been over Texas and now New Mexico has been slowed down, due to persistent troughing along the west coast. Second, the southerly flow on the western side of the high has allowed higher PW and dew points to move northward into the state, which also has helped keep high temperatures down a few degrees. Eventually, the high will move west and then re-center over southern Nevada/western Arizona, strengthening as it does.
On Monday, the upper ridge which is over the southern Rockies will provide a weak northwest flow over the plains. A surface lee trough will drift out of northeast Colorado and be located roughly from Cheyenne Wells to McCook by the afternoon, where CAMs show isolated to widely scattered storms developing. Coverage likely to be limited by proximity to the ridge and weak forcing, but along and east of the trough instability is forecast to be 2000-3000 j/kg and deep layer shear of 40-50kts.
252 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 A deepening upper level trough and moisture-laden cold front will swing through this evening into early Monday.
The ridging effects will stretch over Deep South Texas and cause abnormally hot, humid, and rain-free weather through the period.
After Monday, quieter weather returns as high pressure builds in from the west. Lingering clouds/(much) lower PoPs tonight as final upper trough tracks over the FA. The cold front clears most of the area by early Mon. Warmer/hotter temps return. Rain chances (for mainly diurnal SHRAs/tstms) increase late Thu-Sun as a broad trough settles towards the ern CONUS and a sfc cold front slowly settles near the local area. a bit cooler at the beaches. A weak cold front is still expected to approach from the west later this afternoon into this evening.
An approaching cold front will keep chances of rain in the forecast tomorrow before drier air moves into the region. With all the clouds and rain expected tonight, temperatures were adjusted up with forecast lows in the lower to mid 70s. At the surface a cold front will be situated somewhere across the central Midlands to start off the day before slowly pushing southward through Monday night. Highs in the low to mid 80s are currently forecast.
Wonder if the shorter range models are showing warmer air aloft than the GFS, which would effectively cap off or kill the convective chance as it dives south. The combination of the hot max temperatures and dewpoints in the low 70s, will lead to muggy afternoon conditions with heat index values of 105 to 110 possible. Some uncertainty about convective chance for Wed afternoon/evening, but with the higher PW air lurking about, a few hot or miss storms look possible. Cooler and seasonal temperatures are expected for the end of the week.
454 PM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 A ridge of high pressure building over the region today will warm temperatures by 5 to 10 degrees compared to yesterday, bringing them close to seasonal averages. Isolated showers and storms are possible over the higher terrain, but overall coverage of rainfall will be much lower than the last several afternoons. Mostly clear skies are forecast overnight as the ridge continues to build. Monday will feel quite warm given the cooler than average conditions as of late, with highs in the low 90s in basins east of the Continental Divide, and 80s for valleys and basins west of the Divide. This is about 5 degrees warmer than normal. Winds remain light under the apex of the ridge, and large scale sinking air aloft will again help to suppress convective thunderstorm activity.
Key messages: 1) Another pleasant night ahead 2) Warm on Monday but still comfortable humidity levels Details: Tonight: High pressure over the area will gradually slide into the Ohio Valley. Guidance is in good agreement with the momentum fields through most of the period with a closed upper level low located just north of the Great Lakes. With ridging to the west of the area, we will see the active storm track over the ridge move across our area.
940 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 High pressure builds in Monday with low humidity and temperatures. This high pressure keeps us dry into midweek before the next front approaches toward the weekend. Looking at cloud cover to stick around overnight with some stratus and upper level high clouds.
Much warmer conditions are then expected during mid to late week. Northwest California will remain on the northwestern periphery of an upper level ridge through mid week.
High pressure will dominate the weather across the CWA overnight. Auten High pressure currently centered over Iowa will build overhead tonight, leading to clear skies and nearly calm winds. As the high shifts into the Ohio River Valley, southwesterly return flow will help boost high temperatures into the middle to upper 80s on Monday.
549 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 A cold front will approach the area today, before pressing off to our southeast on Monday. High pressure will build into the area for the middle of the week. An area of low pressure will approach the area from the west toward the end of the week. This upper low will gradually track eastward across PA/NY through the day. A few showers, or maybe a brief thunderstorm may be possible tomorrow afternoon, especially in closer proximity to the upper low across northeast Maryland, where they'll also have slightly better low-level moisture in place. Dewpoints will fall into the 60s to the east of the Blue Ridge, with upper 50s to lower 60s to the west of the Blue Ridge.
(Monday afternoon through Sunday) Monday afternoon should be quiet and warmer than recent days with the thought that there will not be convective cloud debris to hold temps back.
618 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 A cold front exits the coast late tonight.
Monitoring the potential for some to possibly be strong/severe, but that chance is on the low side (~10-20%).
A ridge will build north and west much of the week, bringing warm and dry conditions throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah.
High pressure ridging gives way to a more zonal pattern early this week as the warm dry pattern along with gusty afternoon winds dominates the CWA. Cluster analysis forecasts another high pressure ridge later this week into the weekend bringing even hotter, drier conditions. The high pressure system will be centered over southern New Mexico tomorrow and will continue to influence the wind patterns as well as temperatures in central and northern Nevada.
852 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 A cold front exits the coast late tonight.
745 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 A cold front will push through the area tonight through Monday evening.
High pressure advancing from Missouri to Kentucky will provide us with pleasant midsummer weather during the Short Term. The main thing working against widespread fog will be dry air coming in behind the departing cold front that brought us the showers and thunderstorms today and yesterday. Low-lying areas will be even cooler.
728 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 High pressure builds in Monday with low humidity and temperatures. This high pressure keeps us dry into midweek before the next front approaches toward the weekend. Looking at cloud cover to stick around overnight with some stratus and upper level high clouds. High pressure will build east out of the OH Valley and suppress most active weather by Monday night.
There are a few showers and thunderstorms across the Lower Treasure Valley which is expected to move northeast into the West Central Mountains by 9 PM. Convective activity remains possible across the higher terrain in the central mountains of Idaho and portions of Baker County.
914 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Showers will taper off through this evening as low pressure shifts east of the region.
950 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 A cold front will push through the area tonight through Monday.
741 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Ridging will be staying to our south with south to southwest flow persistent over the area.
629 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 (This afternoon through Monday Night) The cold front is knocking on the door of the TN/KY border. Monday will bring pleasant humidity levels and temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s.
However, rain chances will increase from north to south by early Monday morning as moisture advection increases with PWATs increasing to over 2 inches across the Nature Coast ahead of a cold front dropping slowly southward across the Southeast US. Ridging will be staying to our south with south to southwest flow persistent over the area.
The arrival of a cold front on Monday will bring the potential for strong thunderstorms, locally heavy rain, and lightning to the region.
553 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Showers will taper off through this evening as low pressure shifts east of the region.
Any shower and thunderstorm activity should develop along a cold front in northern Wisconsin Monday afternoon and gradually shift southeast toward the area Monday evening and into the area overnight. Wood (Issued 339 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023) Tonight through Monday night: Temperatures are approaching highs in the lower 80s away from the lakeshore regions, with some diurnal cumulus clouds slowly dissipating. Southwesterly winds will increase throughout the day Monday, with low moisture content in the lower levels and clear skies. However, chances remain low for precipitation and thunder until late Monday night as the cold front progresses southward through the area.
High pressure will settle into the region tomorrow and sunny skies return.
639 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Following widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday, sunshine and warmer temperatures will return to the Midsouth on Monday. The warming trend will persist through midweek, as high pressure aloft edges in from the southern plains.
218 PM PDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Warming will start on Monday as high pressure builds across the Southwest.
and relative humidty on the low side. (This afternoon through Monday Night) The cold front is knocking on the door of the TN/KY border. Monday will bring pleasant humidity levels and temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s.
Like the previous afternoon, daytime high temperatures across the island chain soared to the low to mid 90s. The highest recorded temperature was observed at Marathon International Airport, as reported by the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS). Similar to the previous night, the high-resolution guidance does not indicate the development of showers over the local waters and island chain. A weak area of high pressure will slowly lift northward and build over South Florida through midweek.
202 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 High pressure builds in today with lower humidity and temperatures. This high pressure keeps us dry into midweek before the next front approaches toward the weekend. Dry conditions continue through tonight and mostly clear skies and calm winds will result in much cooler overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s.
Influence of seasonably cooler lower level ridge will continue one more day with afternoon temperatures forecast to remain near and below average across a majority of the region. As ridge shifts eastward into the mid Mississippi River Valley through the day today, winds will become more southerly. Stalled frontal boundary across western- central Texas is progd to retreat as a warm front and could approach the Red River Valley tonight. We could see two areas of storms come into the forecast area; one from the higher terrain to our west which would primarily affect western north Texas and southern Oklahoma, and another with a northern stream s/wv trough spreading into northern Oklahoma from Kansas. Highest chances for organized storms will continue to be forecast across western north Texas and southern Oklahoma with the mentioned warm front acting as a focus.
After a mostly cloudy and cooler day Monday with lingering scattered showers, high pressure at the surface and aloft will return for Tuesday with mostly sunny skies, slightly below normal high temperatures and comfortable humidity.
146 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 A cold front exits the coast late tonight.
330 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Low pressure remains across the eastern seaboard this morning with a dry Saharan Air layer (SAL) draped across the Southern tip of Florida. Little relief from the heat is expected with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s expected.
Aside from the fog, it's muggy (obviously) and thanks to that cold front, it's also cooler with most observation sites sitting around the 60s. The start of the new work week is looking fantastic with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s/low 90s with cooler overnight lows in the mid 60s.
Otherwise, models showed a strong upper ridge building into the area today with energy moving through the ridge. The wave will push a cold front E into the central zones tonight, while a low-level jet develops over SE MT. On Tuesday, the cold front will push through the rest of the area and highs will be in the 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be confined to the N and E of KBIL with the highest chances (50-60%) over Fallon and Carter Counties. evening, along with the high PWAT's, and a surge of cooler air will also move through the region overnight.
A cold front will sag across the southern Great Lakes late Tuesday bringing low chances of showers and thunderstorms.
A southward-moving cold front can now be seen on radar, and is about to cross from southeastern ND into northeastern SD. Moving forward, the passage of this cold front will be the main driver for our weather today, as it will be associated with a wind shift to north/northeasterly winds, moderate low-level CAA with cooler temps, and a slight chance for showers and storms across the southeastern CWA.
It's a much quieter day across the region as high pressure begins to build into northeast Colorado. Shallow cumulus decks can be seen on satellite developing over the high country, where an isolated shower or weak thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon. That isolated convection could extend farther east over the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide. The warming and drying trend accelerates tomorrow, and we should see highs climb into the low to mid 90's for all of the lower elevations. We'll be under the northeast side of the ridge over the southwest this week, with warm dry air aloft. Normally this would produce highs near 100 at lower elevations, but we'll be a little cooler due to the remaining soil moisture and green vegetation.
Monitoring the potential for some to possibly be strong/severe, but that chance is on the low side (~10-20%). Persistent westerly to northwesterly flow pattern aloft expected through the extended range as the main push of warmer air to remain shunted to the south as the forecast area will be dominated by a large upper level trough wobbling across central Canada.
The mid level ridge will remain situated from the southern Rockies southeast into south Texas tonight through Monday night.
235 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023 We will continue to transition into a warmer and drier pattern today. Ridging will continue to build northward today with southwest flow developing over the area. The main threat will be high wind gusts, given the high dew point depressions that will be approaching 50 degrees in some locations.
141 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 A cold front will push through the area through Monday.
This helps drive a cold front through and some convection is possible in the strong low level convergence along the front.
Some brief short wave ridging will move across central Indiana today. At the surface, high pressure will remain the main influence. Although skies will be mostly clear, temperatures will be warmer thanks to some southwest winds. Lows will be in the lower to middle 60s. The current synoptic pattern across North America is characterized by deep troughing over central Canada, with ridging located over the Desert Southwest. The first hint of convective activity should present itself later on Tuesday as a cold front sags southward, settling across northern Illinois and Indiana.
A July cold front has ushered in a welcomed drier airmass across the Midsouth.
1155 PM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 (10/06Z TAF Period) VFR conditions will persist across North Central, Central, and Southwest Montana through at least 21Z with scattered mid- and high- level cloudiness moving through an upper level high pressure ridge. The approach of a Pacific low pressure trough after 21Z will cause the flow aloft to become increasingly moist and unstable. This will spread scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area through 02Z; hazards include lightning, gusty erratic winds, heavy rain, hail, and periods of MVFR conditions; the area with the highest chance of these conditions will be north of Interstate 90, which includes KHLN, KGTF, KLWT, KCTB, and KHVR terminals.
338 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Very warm weather will return early this week with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s as weak ridging builds over the region.
The higher rain chances will push to the SE counties for today, generally closer to the front.
256 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 High pressure and dry air is moving into the region from the west which is allowing for skies to clear. The rest of the day will consist of clement weather with clear skies, light winds, and high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Low temperatures are expected to reach the low 60s.
Will need to watch for fog again Tuesday morning with calm winds persisting amid surface ridging. Tuesday looks a little warmer but still not particularly humid.
High pressure will dominate the weather across the CWA overnight. Auten High pressure currently centered over Iowa will build overhead tonight, leading to clear skies and nearly calm winds. As the high shifts into the Ohio River Valley, southwesterly return flow will help boost high temperatures into the middle to upper 80s on Monday. Barnes As a deep upper low centered near Hudson Bay digs southward, it will push a cold front into Illinois on Tuesday.
319 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Water vapor satellite depicts a very dry lower atmosphere just off of the surface working into the area from the northwest within an area of subsidence behind a departing upper trough. Highs will be slightly below normal in the lower-80s. Warmer temperatures closer to normal in the mid-80s are expected Tuesday as a disturbance approaches. However, the atmosphere will remain weakly stable and dry, precluding anything more than isolated to scattered shallow cumulus development in the lower- levels of the atmosphere during the afternoon hours.
Clearing skies and tranquil conditions can be expected tonight as high pressure begins to build across the FA. Adjusted minTs with a blend of the NBM 50th percentile and CONSMOS as a combination of radiational cooling and cooler maxTs today due to cloud cover will allow for a rather refreshing summer night! Pleasant and dry conditions will then prevail through Tuesday as a upper level trough remains centered over the Ohio Valley.
206 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 A cold front will move east of the area tonight with high pressure building over the region Monday into early Tuesday. A cold front will gradually approach from the northwest Tuesday night and stall near or over the area during the middle and second half of the week. Otherwise, precipitation chances dwindle throughout the evening as high pressure begins to build over the region. The high will foster dry weather Monday through Monday night with dew points in the 50s Monday afternoon. Clearing skies will allow overnight lows to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s with Monday's highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s in NW OH and the low to mid 80s elsewhere. A flat upper level ridge will be centered near the southwest U.
340 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 -Cooler temperatures remain in place through Tuesday (around 10F below average for mid July). The cold front has pushed almost completely through our CWA early this morning, and should be south after daybreak. Falling heights/CAA associated with the mid/upper low building just a little farther south will keep below average temperatures in place through Tuesday, with highs in the upper 60s-lower 70s.
There is a good deal of uncertainty about the cold front approaching from the northwest and the convection that will be associated with it. The amount of dry air in the low levels, and a temperature inversion around 800mb could inhibit convection until late in the afternoon and keep it right along the front.
Other than a few trailing showers or isolated storms this evening/tonight, drier air will move in from the north and cooler temperatures will be noted.
Moisture will become even more shallow than it was yesterday as the ridge remains just to our west.
* By the end of the week and into the weekend, a strong ridge of high pressure is taking hold over much of the west. Latest ensemble and operational simulations are all showing the center of the high shifting farther north and west, directly over the region. Some operational model runs are even indicating a 600 dm center to the high with 700 mb temps exceeding 20 deg C.
257 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue over southeastern NC and northeastern SC on Monday as a cold front slowly pushes across the area by early Tuesday.
Temperatures are hovering in the lower to mid 80s at most locations, although clear skies and light winds have allowed temps to radiate down into the upper 70s at a few sheltered interior locations on the larger islands. Surface analysis has changed little during the past couple of days, depicting the subtropical high over the central Atlantic and a weak ridge extending westward through the northern Bahamas and the Keys. Aloft, the subtropical ridge extends from the western Atlantic across our region and the Gulf of Mexico. The hot and dry SAL regime will continue to dominate our weather pattern through Tuesday, as the low level ridge slowly inches northward from the Keys into South Florida.
218 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 High pressure builds in today with lower humidity and temperatures. This high pressure keeps us dry into midweek before the next front approaches toward the weekend. Dry conditions continue through tonight and mostly clear skies and calm winds will result in much cooler overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s.
Strong and a few strong to severe storms possible A subtropical ridge is centered over southern New Mexico and the Texas Big Bend region today. With slight strengthening of the 850mb thermal ridge, highs this afternoon are expected to be 97- 100 degrees across the Big Country, and 99-104 across our central and southern counties. This will be facilitated by northwest flow aloft, around the periphery of the aforementioned subtropical ridge.
To the north a frontal boundary and short wave trough will bring moisture and some instability with.
1231 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Major warming trend begins Monday as a ridge of high pressure continues to strengthen.
Mid-level flow will subside and veer to NNW in the wake of the trough, and with a dry continental airmass expected to spread eastward from the central Plains into the Appalachians, we expect dry conditions to prevail. The only exception to this may be tomorrow (Monday) afternoon, when low-level convergence along the actual cold front may be sufficient (in the presence of lingering boundary layer moisture) to generate a few low-topped showers and thunderstorms across the southeastern portion of the CWFA.