Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An attendant cold front will push southward this evening, with gusty northerly winds in its wake. Some models are hinting at some saturation in the lowest levels Sunday morning, which could lead to freezing drizzle. Wind chills are likely to be just below freezing Sunday morning across far northwest Oklahoma. Afternoon temperatures will stay around freezing along and north of I-40, and areas southward will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Currently, Arctic high pressure is situated over Alberta Canada.
(This afternoon through Sunday) Mild and mostly sunny conditions continue today across Central Alabama thanks to high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic region. However, cloud cover and rain have begun to increase in coverage to our west over the ArkLaTex region in response to low- level troughing urging an increase in moisture and providing sufficient lift over the region. Low pressure will become elongated from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley with rain focusing along an associated cold front. Southeasterly sfc winds and WAA in the low-levels will continue to provide seasonably mild temperatures. Slightly cooler across the north during the day tomorrow due to the early start to the rain, but expect mid 60s across the south.
1041 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2023 High pressure will prevail today.
It is clear that the boundary has moved across the Upper Keys due to the predominantly easterly flow and temperatures of at least 5 degrees higher than temperatures in the Lower and Middle Keys. From synopsis, a stationary front will remain over the Straits of Florida with high pressure centered over the Gulf Coast. Breezes will begin to slacken by the end of the weekend, as high pressure slides northeastward off the Mid- Atlantic coast.
231 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2023 High pressure south of the area moves offshore tonight.
1141 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 (Today and tonight) The CWA remains beneath the southern periphery of a full-latitude trough positioned across the U. Temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer today compared to yesterday from increasing adiabatic compression as the weak surface cyclone drifts southward into the Texas Panhandle, and the presence of high-level cirrus bands associated with a strengthening 300 mb jet streak should not impede diabatic heating effects. A weak vorticity lobe will rotate eastward over the TX/OK PH region tonight, with the attendant cold front propagating southward into the CWA and shifting winds to the north, resulting in cooler temperatures heading into Sunday morning.
Could be a brief period of freezing drizzle mixed with the snow along/south of I-80 for an hour or two.
(Rest of today through Sunday) A bit breezier today as building high pressure shifts winds northeasterly across the area. A warming trend has begun today with temperatures in the low/mid 70s area-wide. Tomorrow, continuing easterly flow will moderate temperatures a bit and lead to warmer overnight lows - especially near the east coastline. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s.
A cold front will move through southern Oregon and Northern California from north to south tonight.
232 PM MST Sat Jan 28 2023 A moderate to strong zonal flow is will be over northern CO through this evening, with an area of weak mid/upper level qg ascent in place as a short wave trough move across WY. Later in the evening, spatial cross-sections show some drying in the mid/upper levels which could lead to a brief period of light freezing later this evening. Across the northeast plains, the low level moisture will deepen slightly, but it will be cold enough to stay as light snow. On Sunday another trough drops southward out of the Pacific Northwest.
An elongated area of an arctic 1040mb high pressure system remains poised just to our north across portions of ND northwestward into western Canada this afternoon. With the largely northwest flow aloft expected during the period, 925mb temp gradient sets up over the Northern Plains, with cooler temps north and east and warmer temps further west.
With southerly flow continuing tomorrow, daytime highs are expected to reach the lower to mid 80s across much of the region.
447 PM MST Sat Jan 28 2023 A moderate to strong zonal flow is will be over northern CO through this evening, with an area of weak mid/upper level qg ascent in place as a short wave trough move across WY. Later in the evening, spatial cross-sections show some drying in the mid/upper levels which could lead to a brief period of light freezing later this evening. Across the northeast plains, the low level moisture will deepen slightly, but it will be cold enough to stay as light snow. On Sunday another trough drops southward out of the Pacific Northwest.
831 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 GOES-16 Satellite trends and 00Z upper air analysis depict an longwave upper level trough axis extending from the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains back through the Southwest United States, and an upper level ridge located over portions of Southern Florida and the Bahamas. Meanwhile, surface analysis places an arctic cold front from the Northeast United States back through West Central Missouri and into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. Latest short term models and Convective Allowing Model solutions suggest the potential for rain showers will continue overnight across the Lower Mississippi Valley as the aforementioned front approaches the area.
(This evening through Sunday) The main item of interest the next 24 hours will be a strong cold front that will move through the area late tonight into tomorrow. The cold front is expected to enter the Big Country after midnight and move south across the during the day tomorrow.
Spotty areas of freezing drizzle were observed across the local area this morning and into the early afternoon hours. where the highest accumulations of around 1 inch are anticipated.
700 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2023 A warm front will lift north of the area this evening. Low pressure will track from the mid Mississippi Valley into the eastern Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night which will drag a cold front across the area. High pressure will gradually build in through the early part of the week. Showers will diminish in the morning, lingering longest in the southeastern counties, as the low level jet moves off to the east and weakens. However, some additional showers will develop in the afternoon in advance of a cold front making it into the area. Temperatures are forecast to be mild once again on Sunday, although a few degrees cooler than today. High pressure does build over the region throughout the afternoon, with drier air moving in from the northwest.
So most areas on the plains will see around an inch or less additional snowfall, maybe another 1 or 2 inches in the foothills and 1 to 3 inches over the north facing slopes in the high country.
608 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2023 High pressure will maintain dry conditions and above- normal temperature today. Widespread light rain returns Sunday as low pressure tracks to our northwest.
655 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2023 High pressure accompanied by dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will prevail through much of Sunday.
613 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2023 (Rest of today through Sunday) A bit breezier today as building high pressure shifts winds northeasterly across the area. A warming trend has begun today with temperatures in the low/mid 70s area-wide. Tomorrow, continuing easterly flow will moderate temperatures a bit and lead to warmer overnight lows - especially near the east coastline. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s.
930 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2023 A warm front will lift north of the area this evening. Low pressure will track from the mid Mississippi Valley into the eastern Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night which will drag a cold front across the area. High pressure will gradually build in through the early part of the week. Showers will diminish in the morning, lingering longest in the southeastern counties, as the low level jet moves off to the east and weakens. However, some additional showers will develop in the afternoon in advance of a cold front making it into the area. Temperatures are forecast to be mild once again on Sunday, although a few degrees cooler than today. High pressure does build over the region throughout the afternoon, with drier air moving in from the northwest.
Complex upper low still driving varied conditions across East Idaho. Best lift ahead of the low produces strongest snowfall threat across southern portions of Snake Plain and southern highlands overnight into early Sunday. Have dropped the Winter Weather Advisory for the Lower Snake Plain as best new accumulations should remain less than 2 inches.
Meanwhile, well upstream across southwestern Canada, a deepening trough will continue moving steadily southward through tomorrow. Ahead of this system, southwesterly flow will help to boost high temperatures into the mid to upper 60s across the lower deserts, making it the warmest day in more than two weeks in Phoenix.
940 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2023 High pressure accompanied by dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will prevail through much of Sunday.
842 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2023 High pressure will maintain dry conditions tonight. Widespread light rain returns Sunday as low pressure crosses northern Ohio.
Deep upper trough shifts east early this week, with northwest flow across the Northern Plains.
Model agreement continues to see the southerly progression of the trough out of the Pacific Northwest. Snow showers will look to follow this trough into the Silver State with both Humboldt and Elko counties expected to see the first of these showers later tonight. Accumulations for the northern counties is expected to be light as quick progression of the trough will push showers further south through the overnight. Look for an inch or two to be seen in the high elevations and less than an inch in the valleys for our northern areas. As a secondary concern, winds will also look to pick up across Northern Nevada with the movement of the trough. Meanwhile further south in Central Nevada, model trends still expect heavier accumulation thanks in part to the deepening of the trough and development of a closed upper-level low.
Once the band reached the Highway 30 to Interstate 80 latitude, additional bands of light to moderate snow have redeveloped within 10 miles of Interstate 80, then lifted northward. Tonight, the frontal slope will begin to drop south, with a wave of low pressure moving east through central Illinois. This should bring more widespread snow to the CWA, with a mix of snow/sleet/possible freezing rain in the far south and east. After coordination with surrounding NWS offices, we'll have a winter weather advisory for mixed freezing precip through early morning hours in Bureau/Putnam/McDonough.
Surface ridging should allow for winds to continue to drop (similar lows as earlier this morning only slightly more wind).
323 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 Low level stratus was overspreading the area this afternoon from north to south behind a cold front that has now turned winds north across almost the entire forecast area. During the post cold frontal upslope regime, as the dendritic zone gets oriented closer the surface, a light dusting of snow will not be out of the question as occurs with so many arctic airmasses like this.
The overcast skies will keep overnight temperatures in the lower 70s. A high pressure cell perched over the southeastern United States promoted calm weather today through this evening. Breezes will begin to slacken by tomorrow afternoon as high pressure slides northeastward off the Atlantic coast.
An embedded S/WV and associated cold front pushing south across far south central Canada currently, will eventually develop south into the north central US, increasing cloud cover and bringing a chance for light snow showers/flurries. Currently, Arctic high pressure is situated over Alberta Canada.
H5 analysis this morning had a closed low over northern portions of Hudson Bay. A long wave trough of low pressure was present over the CONUS and southern Canada. Across southwestern into central Nebraska some patchy freezing drizzle was reported earlier this morning.
1239 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 High pressure will maintain dry conditions tonight. Widespread light rain returns Sunday as low pressure crosses northern Ohio.
1045 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 (Tonight) West-southwesterly flow aloft will persist across much of the central/eastern CONUS overnight, within the gradient between a subtropical ridge centered across the FL Straits and a cold upper vortex in the vicinity of Hudson Bay.
Mixed precip types--including sleet and freezing rain--have been reported in recent obs in this region, and HRRR profiles continue to suggest that a brief period of mixed precip is possible this morning along the I-94 corridor. This high will be preceded by pronounced low-level cold advection, with 850-mb temps falling to near -18C by Mon night. After a lull this evening/tonight, northwest winds will strengthen on Mon as an area of high pressure builds into the region.
Water vapor imagery and upper air plots showing the ridging aloft that is slowly building over the region from the N Carib. Weakening high pressure in the Western Atlantic with keep light southeasterly winds and slight seas over the Eastern Gulf waters through mid week as a frontal boundary stalls in the Northern Gulf. High pressure is expected to remain in the Western Atlantic with southeasterly wind flow bringing increasing moisture and warming temps to the area through mid week.
(Today and tonight) Strong cold front will continue to push quickly south this morning, bringing much colder airmass into the area. Gusty north winds today will create low wind chills ranging from the lower 20s in the south to near zero in the north this morning with only modest recovery through the day today.
Discussion: For today, an upper jet across the Ohio valley will place the area under the favored right entrance region of the jet enhancing the large scale forcing and strengthening the low-level jet. Due to the low- level inversion, breezy southerly winds will be limited to the Plateau and ridge tops. For tonight, another jet will move toward the area from the lower Mississippi valley into the region producing another round of lift enhancing the isentropic lift once again.
1243 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 (Rest of today through Sunday) A bit breezier today as building high pressure shifts winds northeasterly across the area. A warming trend has begun today with temperatures in the low/mid 70s area-wide. Tomorrow, continuing easterly flow will moderate temperatures a bit and lead to warmer overnight lows - especially near the east coastline. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s.
Most of the convection will exit the region late this evening or tonight as a cold front pushes into the Gulf of Mexico.
1125 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 GOES-16 Satellite trends and 00Z upper air analysis depict an longwave upper level trough axis extending from the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains back through the Southwest United States, and an upper level ridge located over portions of Southern Florida and the Bahamas. Meanwhile, surface analysis places an arctic cold front from the Northeast United States back through West Central Missouri and into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. Latest short term models and Convective Allowing Model solutions suggest the potential for rain showers will continue overnight across the Lower Mississippi Valley as the aforementioned front approaches the area.
320 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Rain is expected today as low pressure tracks across the region.
245 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Precipitation has tapered off in intensity with mainly just very light snow/flurries being found, along with freezing drizzle south of Freeport to Clinton to Washington line within the low stratus. Today looks to turn quieter with any light snow, flurries and patchy freezing drizzle tapering off this morning. Details: The coldest period of weather is expected early week, as arctic high pressure dominates.
(Today) Rain continues to overspread the local forecast area from west to east this morning as a cold front gradually moves east.
(through Tonight) High pressure will move off to the northeast this morning. A warm front will lift northeast into area this afternoon. The warm front will be just north of the area Tonight, with waves at the surface and aloft moving along it. Temperatures Today, will have a large range, due to the position of the warm front. Lows Tonight will range from the mid 50s over interior SE GA, to the lower 60s across NE FL.
- Light wintry precipitation possible tonight in central MO The cold front pushed through the entire forecast area by midnight with much colder air quickly moving into the area behind the front. The first and more impactful area is across our south to southeastern zones where a quick shot of freezing rain developed and dropped a few hundredths of an inch of ice. This suggest the potential for freezing drizzle and/or flurries.
Upstream, there was a weak trough extending from south central Manitoba down through southwest Saskatchewan.
While winds will not be that strong, under a strong high pressure, there will be enough for wind chills to drop into the -20s to -30s.
130 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 A warm front will lift north of the area this evening. Low pressure will track from the mid Mississippi Valley into the eastern Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night which will drag a cold front across the area. High pressure will gradually build in through the early part of the week. Showers will diminish in the morning, lingering longest in the southeastern counties, as the low level jet moves off to the east and weakens. However, some additional showers will develop in the afternoon in advance of a cold front making it into the area. Temperatures are forecast to be mild once again on Sunday, although a few degrees cooler than today. High pressure does build over the region throughout the afternoon, with drier air moving in from the northwest.
East winds 10-15 KT this evening will veer E/SE overnight as the high pressure along the coast of SC/NC moves northward. Gradual breaking up of the low to mid level cloud deck is expected to spread northward through the overnight, with CIGs becoming SCT/BKN by daybreak.
A band of light snow showers will continue to push southward as an arctic cold front continues to work its way into the region. Temperatures will continue to fall tonight as the cold front moves through, with mostly sub-freezing temperatures to round out the weekend. Scattered MVFR-IFR in snow showers as a cold front moves through this evening.
(Today and tonight) 07Z upper air analysis reveals a small vorticity lobe embedded within the base of the full-latitude trough over the U. As such, warmer temperatures were present across the southern South and Rolling Plains compared to the northern zones, where a slow-moving cold front is currently located. Dense, low-level stratus is accompanying this cold front in addition to freezing fog as per recent METAR data. Therefore, patchy freezing fog has been added into the official forecast for portions of the Caprock through 15Z this morning. Stratus should begin to mix out by this early afternoon from west-to-east across the CWA as winds shift to the southeast across the Caprock before returning once again tonight as the low-level airmass nears its saturation point from the weak upslope flow.
1108 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2023 High pressure will maintain dry conditions tonight. Widespread light rain returns Sunday as low pressure crosses northern Ohio.
The cold front will be knocking on the door of the northwestern part of the CWA this evening.
617 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Widespread rain will spread across the area today as a cold front approaches the region and a low pressure system crosses the southeast United States.
521 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 (Today and tonight) 07Z upper air analysis reveals a small vorticity lobe embedded within the base of the full-latitude trough over the U. As such, warmer temperatures were present across the southern South and Rolling Plains compared to the northern zones, where a slow-moving cold front is currently located. Dense, low-level stratus is accompanying this cold front in addition to freezing fog as per recent METAR data. Therefore, patchy freezing fog has been added into the official forecast for portions of the Caprock through 15Z this morning. Stratus should begin to mix out by this early afternoon from west-to-east across the CWA as winds shift to the southeast across the Caprock before returning once again tonight as the low-level airmass nears its saturation point from the weak upslope flow.
Tonight into Monday, high pressure will begin to build in from the Northern Plains (Dakotas and Nebraska). CAA will kick in as the high pressure moves in bringing colder temperatures to the state.
A surface cold front is currently moving southward and is extending from West Wendover to just south of Winnemucca. This is all part of an upper level trough over northern California at this time. Snow amounts in central Nevada are expected to be in the one to four inch range, with the higher amounts expected in White Pine county. Highs will be in the teens, though some of the warmer locales could see temperatures in the 20s to near 30.
High pressure was in control across the Northland early this morning with skies ranging from mainly clear to partly cloudy. High clouds were seen moving across the southern portion of the region in association with an area of low pressure across Illinois.
Precipitation has tapered off in intensity with mainly just very light snow/flurries being found, along with freezing drizzle south of Freeport to Clinton to Washington line within the low stratus. Today looks to turn quieter with any light snow, flurries and patchy freezing drizzle tapering off this morning. Details: The coldest period of weather is expected early week, as arctic high pressure dominates.
245 AM MST Sun Jan 29 2023 Current surface analysis shows arctic boundary along the lee of the Rockies to the southern Plains, with high pressure from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Upper level analysis shows near zonal flow across the area, with trough across the Pacific NW. Winds are relatively light with high pressure in the vicinity, but are producing wind chills of 10 below to around 20 below in many areas. Weather conditions will continue to improve over the next 12 to 24 hours, but lingering light snow and flurries can be expected at times, mainly near and south of I-90, as a couple more weak disturbances pass across southern portions of the region ahead of the trough to the west. That trough will eventually pass southwest of the region tonight, ending the snowfall.
Forecast Discussion: The cold front that moved through the area yesterday, dramatically dropping temperatures, now stretches from Lake Erie southwestward to near Dallas early this morning.
Cold front will be bringing much colder air today. Cold front was moving through Haskell and Throckmorton counties at 3 PM. Cold front should be south of I-20 by 6 AM, and I-10 by Noon. Farther south in the Concho Valley and Heartland, temperatures fall into the 40s, though the Concho Valley may rise back to highs in the lower 50s in afternoon. Tonight, temperatures drop in the lower to mid 20s in the Big Country, with mid/upper 20s in the Concho Valley and Heartland.
433 AM MST Sun Jan 29 2023 Current surface analysis shows arctic boundary along the lee of the Rockies to the southern Plains, with high pressure from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Upper level analysis shows near zonal flow across the area, with trough across the Pacific NW. Winds are relatively light with high pressure in the vicinity, but are producing wind chills of 10 below to around 20 below in many areas. Weather conditions will continue to improve over the next 12 to 24 hours, but lingering light snow and flurries can be expected at times, mainly near and south of I-90, as a couple more weak disturbances pass across southern portions of the region ahead of the trough to the west. That trough will eventually pass southwest of the region tonight, ending the snowfall.