Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Through Saturday) The cold front and associated line of showers with heavy downpours and isolated thunder will exit the Southeast FL Big Bend this evening. A much cooler and drier air mass will continue to filter into the region, with Friday's highs around 70 degrees having occurred during the morning/early afternoon hours at most locations with temps falling thereafter. High pressure filters in on Saturday with mostly sunny and dry weather. (Saturday night through Friday) High pressure shifts off to the east Saturday night, bringing a slightly warmer, more moist easterly wind into our area. A strong ridge will develop across the southeast US, possibly near record strength heading into the middle to later part of the week.
Short wave ridging over the area today will move off east of the area tonight into early Saturday morning as a rex block builds in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Mid and upper level flow will back to the southwest in advance of a weak short wave trough moving northeast out of northern Mexico.
(Rest of Today) A belt of intense west-southwesterly flow aloft (on the order of 100-120 knots) will continue across the local forecast area today, as the region remains situated between a subtropical high centered northeast of the Bahamas and an elongated, positive-tilt mid-level trough extending from southern ON/QC southwestward into the Red River Valley. Modest height falls aloft and synoptic scale ascent to the east of the trough have resulted in isolated light showers (mixed with snow flurries and graupel at times) that have primarily impacted the northeastern half of the CWFA this morning. The presence of the clouds, coupled with brisk north- northwest winds of 15 MPH (gusting to 25 MPH), will keep temps fairly steady in the lower 30s atop the Cumberland Plateau and in the m30s-around 40 in valley locations.
Currently, skies remain clear across the area, with temperatures warming into the low/mid-30s where snowpack persists and into the 40s in snow free areas. Aloft, zonal flow continues, with an upper ridge axis positioned across the Desert Southwest and a deep trough axis stretching across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-South. Benign weather conditions are expected to persist through tomorrow, with the aforementioned upper ridge expected to translate eastward across the southern Plains through Saturday. This will drag a cold front through the area through Saturday night, with a wind shift to northwest.
Upper ridging will be suppressed tonight under a back door cold front and weak upper trough. Cloud cover may increase due to numerous short waves in the upper trough and increasing mid level moisture.
In the Lower Keys clouds were able to clear out earlier in the day and so temperatures were able to reach into the mid 80s. Elsewhere along the island chain, temperatures have held in the lower 80s. A ridge to our east is pulling away in response to an approaching frontal system that is slowly sliding southeast across the Gulf of Mexico. The strongest winds associated with the front will actually occur late tomorrow as the high impinges on the front. Thereafter, a new ridge will develop in the western Gulf of Mexico and gradually slide east while building.
1112 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 (Today and tonight) Today will start off cold with temperatures ranging from the low teens to the 20s at sunrise. Temperatures tonight will be warmer with lows in the 20s and 30s due to southerly winds and increasingly cloudy skies.
(Tonight through Saturday night) A weak upper level ridge is building over Texas this afternoon. Surface winds continue from the northern half of the compass turning around a high pressure center. A cooler, direr airmass is settling over our CWA. Winds have been gradually decreasing and this will continue as the center of the high moves eastward. Expect freezing temperatures over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. Southerly to southeasterly flow will develop Saturday as the ridge continue to move east. High temperatures Saturday will be a couple of degrees warmer than today from the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
843 AM PST Fri Feb 17 2023 An abundance of high clouds, coupled with locally gusty Santa Ana winds, will keep a chill in the air today, even though it will be slightly warmer overall. The higher clouds will thin, allowing more sun to coax daytime highs back to average.
Mostly clear skies are expected tonight with winds becoming light as a high pressure ridge settles into the coastal plains. Temperatures will be near freezing across the northern counties for a few hours early Saturday morning with drainage areas possibly just below freezing. A weak short wave trough will move northeast into the southern plains on Saturday while an upper low is cutoff west of northern Baja California. Expect cirrus will spread across south Texas Saturday with winds veering to east to southeast as the high pressure ridge translates to the east. With onshore flow and high clouds over the region Saturday night, the lows will be warmer from the mid 40s inland to the mid 50s coast.
The cold front that followed the active weather is now stretched from approximately Crisp county northward to Wilkes county. Behind the front, a comparatively drier and cooler airmass has begun to filter into the region as high pressure both at the surface and aloft have begun to build into the region. The aforementioned cooler air will be in place tonight as skies clear allowing for nocturnal cooling to be maximized. Lows are progged to fall below freezing for the entire expect our far southeastern counties where temperatures will hoover just above freezing. Tomorrow will be a pleasant and cooler day under high pressure.
249 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Low clouds will soon exit the eastern CWA leaving clear skies through early Saturday morning as subsidence sets in behind an upper trough. While the GFS does produce some light QPF with this system, the NAM does not and the low levels are quite dry leading me to keep just a chance of sprinkles with the system.
A light accumulation of snow is possible for the higher peaks through tonight. highs close to normal for A cold front that moved through earlier today continued to move towards the Atlantic coast this afternoon. Aloft, a positively tilted trough will cross the Appalachians by Saturday morning. Behind it ridging builds in for Saturday. Gusty NW winds behind the departing front were clearing skies out just downwind of the Blue Ridge. As far as the wind goes, we are seeing gusts between 20 and 30 mph for most areas, with higher gusts in the wind advisory area along the Blue Ridge. Wind chills will make it feel like the single digits in the mountains to the low 20s for the Piedmont. Highs should warm into the 40s to 50F for the mountains, and into the low 50s for the Piedmont.
However, high pressure moving into the region will help to relax winds for a period of time this evening into the overnight, especially across the south. Given these factors, generally think the entire area still falls into the low to mid 20s.
As high pressure builds over the area tonight, skies will clear and gusty northwest wind will diminish allowing temperatures to fall into the mid/upper 20s. This cold weather episode will be short-lived however as the airmass modifies quickly under a building upper level ridge and increasing sun angle.
236 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 (Issued 236 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023) Tonight and Saturday: A ridge of high pressure moving east across the Great Lakes Region will keep conditions dry across southern Wisconsin through Saturday. The increasing winds are due to the increase pressure gradient between the exiting ridge axis and weak trough passing to the north of Lake Superior.
1031 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2023 Conditions will turn windy and noticeably colder today behind a strong cold front with snow showers and flurries over the western and central Alleghenies. Cold front moving through AVP-MDT 15-16Z and should exit the CWA by 18Z taking rain showers with it. High pressure/lowering inversion heights building into the area by Saturday morning will spell an end to the snow showers over the western mtns.
Meanwhile, an upper trough will move across central Canada late tonight with only a slight chance for snow showers extending southward into northern Chippewa county.
Conditions will still be cold tonight, with lows likely to be in the low to mid 30s along areas north of I-10, the mid to upper 30s along areas south of I-10, and the low to mid 40s along the coasts. There is a chance that our northernmost counties (Burleson County eastward into Houston County) will experience subfreezing temperatures for a few hours before sunrise. The mid level RH values will be fairly high, however, very dry air within the layers below it along with mid level high pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico, will limit rain development (or possibly result in virga).
(This afternoon) The mid-morning satellite imagery indicates that the back edge of the low cu cigs continue to erode from N to S, with extrapolation suggesting that the clearing will shift S of the I-20 corridor by midday, exiting the Srn parishes of NCntrl LA by mid-afternoon. Despite the clearing, the pressure gradient remains somewhat tight over the region, ahead of sfc ridging building SE across the Srn Plains. However, even colder temps are expected across the Srn zones where the low cu field is slower to exit this area.
1221 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2023 Seasonably cold conditions will prevail through tonight, with rain/snow showers gradually diminishing as high pressure builds.
These showers are due in part to moisture pooling along the southwestern periphery of an expansive ridge in the western North Atlantic. A trailing cold front drapes southwest into the north central Gulf of Mexico and is trudging east and southeast.
332 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2023 Seasonably cold conditions will prevail through tonight, with snow showers gradually diminishing as high pressure builds.
Mostly Quiet, Warmer Weekend: A milder weekend is on tap with some sunshine on tap, more so on Saturday.
With the low level thermal trough persisting upstream over eastern AR/LA, we should continue to see considerable stratus development for the next few hours, but as the trough shifts east and warms later this afternoon, expect the stratus to quickly decrease. /EC/ The cold front that brought severe weather yesterday has pushed through the region leaving cold air behind it. By Friday evening, mid-level ridging will come into play, amplifying the cold air already in place. With all of these things in play, low temperatures really don't stand a chance of climbing above freezing (29-30F).
Lake/terrain enhanced snow showers and flurries will continue over the western and central Alleghenies this evening and eventually dissipate overnight into early Saturday morning as high pressure builds into the Keystone State.
(This evening through Saturday night) Upper-level ridging will build over the Panhandles this afternoon which will allow for light winds and clear skies. At least some areas in the southern Texas Panhandle may observe lows in the low-40s.
Surface ridging moved in over the morning hours, clearing out skies and bringing in dry conditions for the afternoon hours. A weak cold front will cross the region overnight, briefly swinging winds back to the west for the early morning hours. A decent amount of sunshine should be able to reach the surface during this period, so went with the warmer guidance, especially for the snow free sliver of land visible on satellite, approximately stretching from Wood/Portage counties to Menominee. Saturday Night Through Friday The extended models continue 500mb ridging across the Pacific Ocean with downstream troughing across the central United States.
1132 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 (Today and tonight) High pressure settling in over much of West Central Texas today, along with continued cool northerly flow this morning and clear conditions will lead to below normal temperatures for today and tonight. Winds will begin to become more light and variable by this afternoon as the aforementioned high pressure centers over the area.
Yesterday's upper ridge has shifted to our east and south and the northern part of a Pacific trough has come inland across WA and northern ID. In that flow a short wave trough from the Gulf of Alaska will arrive in our CWA late Saturday.
1034 AM MST Fri Feb 17 2023 Skies were clear across the forecast early this morning as a ridge of high pressure settled over the Rocky Mountain region overnight. However, cirrus generated by a closed low off the California coast moving north and eastward was approaching the forecast area and should reach the western zones by sunrise. Cirrus will continue to stream overhead tonight as the closed low shifts to waters off the southern California coast. Meanwhile, the ridge breaks down as a mid-level short wave trough approaches from the northwest.
1129 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 (This afternoon) The mid-morning satellite imagery indicates that the back edge of the low cu cigs continue to erode from N to S, with extrapolation suggesting that the clearing will shift S of the I-20 corridor by midday, exiting the Srn parishes of NCntrl LA by mid-afternoon. Despite the clearing, the pressure gradient remains somewhat tight over the region, ahead of sfc ridging building SE across the Srn Plains. However, even colder temps are expected across the Srn zones where the low cu field is slower to exit this area.
Surface temperatures west of the Cumberland Plateau remain a couple of degrees above freezing, so no impacts are expected for most of the area. The higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau have remained colder than initially thought. Luckily snow showers remain very light, so impacts should be minimal, but some light accumulations of snow are possible on elevated surfaces and even on overpasses and bridges late this afternoon through early evening. Whatever flurries are left this evening should diminish not too long after sunset as drier air moves in behind the upper trough axis.
Local radar continues to show a decrease in echos as warmer air advects across the lake and shuts down the lake effect by increasing stability. High pressure over Missouri will settle over Lower MI this weekend resulting in some sunshine Saturday.
The CAMS and Ensembles are in decent agreement with an upper level trough off the coast of Baja California at 12z Friday moves towards southwest Kansas on Saturday. Some areas may even reach the 70s before the next cold front moves in. The timing of the next cold front however is uncertain due to diverging solutions with the timing of the cold front passage and upper-level trough moving from Canada into the western United States during the last half of the work week. The cold air could arrive a day or two earlier given the magnitude of the cold air forecast in Northern Plains or a day or two later given the timing/track of the upper low.
1005 AM MST Fri Feb 17 2023 Upper ridging sits over the Rockies, with a split trough over the west coast, and its low spinning off the coast of CA. As the northern part of the aforementioned trough scoots across the northern US today, NW winds will increase (but remain below advisory criteria) across NW SD.
1147 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 (Rest of Today) A belt of intense west-southwesterly flow aloft (on the order of 100-120 knots) will continue across the local forecast area today, as the region remains situated between a subtropical high centered northeast of the Bahamas and an elongated, positive-tilt mid-level trough extending from southern ON/QC southwestward into the Red River Valley. Modest height falls aloft and synoptic scale ascent to the east of the trough have resulted in isolated light showers (mixed with snow flurries and graupel at times) that have primarily impacted the northeastern half of the CWFA this morning. The presence of the clouds, coupled with brisk north- northwest winds of 15 MPH (gusting to 25 MPH), will keep temps fairly steady in the lower 30s atop the Cumberland Plateau and in the m30s-around 40 in valley locations.
1137 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 (Today and tonight) Warmer temperatures under sunny skies expected today but still about 5 to 10 degrees below average. With the south winds being maintained tonight, along with increasing high level clouds, lows tonight/Saturday morning will be about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this morning, mostly upper 20s and lower 30s. Most locations will still see freezing temperatures, but outside of southeast portions of Oklahoma, frost should not be a problem with the increased wind and low RH.
the high will begin moving east towards the eastern US. Flow around this high will put Alabama in easterly flow with cool and dry air continuing to advect into the state.
500-mb heights will gradually rise through the period and warm air advection will amplify in response to a deepening trough west- northwest of the Baja.
1156 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 (Today through Saturday night) After a chilly start to the day, ridging on the backside of an exiting upper level disturbance will kick off a warming trend through the weekend for the Panhandles.
1125 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Key Messages: - Weekend ridge building and above normal temperatures are expected with periods of sun and clouds.
As the current ridge over the region continues to slowly slide eastward, expect high and mid level cloud cover to increase as we move into the overnight period. By Saturday morning, cloud cover will have increased as a surge of moisture pushes through ahead of the low pressure system off the California coast.
535 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) A weak upper level ridge is building over Texas this afternoon. Surface winds continue from the northern half of the compass turning around a high pressure center. A cooler, direr airmass is settling over our CWA. Winds have been gradually decreasing and this will continue as the center of the high moves eastward. Lows in the morning will be mainly in the lower to middle 30s. Expect freezing temperatures over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. Southerly to southeasterly flow will develop Saturday as the ridge continues to move east. High temperatures Saturday will be a couple of degrees warmer than today from the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
Accumulations are expected to be light before the approaching area of high pressure clears it away tonight from west to east.
704 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2023 A trough will push east of the local area tonight before high pressure builds over the forecast area through the weekend.
High pressure dominates the area, which has brought along some beautifully clear skies and sunshine. Ridge of high pressure over the region continues to give us quiet and clear weather. Tonight, clear skies and fresh snow will allow temperatures through much of the area to plummet again into the low teens. Temperatures will climb above normal tomorrow, as we get some southwesterly flow in the low levels. High pressure moves off to the east, as the next wave passes through the area.
A weak cold front is currently moving southeast over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula, bringing with it rain showers and cooler temperatures for the region tonight. Cooler temperatures and lower humidity expected tomorrow for central and south Florida as the front passes through. (00Z TAFS) A cold front pushing southeast through the forecast area this evening will bring periods of showers and MVFR or occasional IFR ceilings and visibilities to much of the area. A cold front is pushing southeast through the coastal waters overnight, with breezy northwest winds filling in behind the front, setting up Small Craft Advisory conditions over much of the waters through early Saturday afternoon. Winds will subside through the rest of the weekend as high pressure settles in north of the waters, with winds and seas remaining below headline criteria through the rest of the week.
844 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2023 Seasonably cold conditions will prevail through tonight, with flurries gradually diminishing as high pressure builds in.
Strong southerly/southwesterly winds begin to decrease this evening with breezy conditions possible along the Buffalo Ridge overnight.
Sunny skies grace the northwest third of the CWA where dewpoints underneath the inversion are just a bit cooler. Meanwhile, temperatures across the CWA have only managed to climb into the lower and middle 20s with the cooler readings showing up in the northwest with the fresh snowpack. Late Saturday night, some models are throwing up some scattered sprinkles or flurries underneath a notable low level jet max on the lee side of an 850mb trough.
643 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2023 Seasonably cold conditions will prevail through tonight, with snow showers gradually diminishing as high pressure builds.
The ridge responsible for the break from snow will get pushed away tomorrow as a Canadian trough arrives.
Temperatures will drop into the 20s areawide tonight and cool weather continues Saturday with highs in the lower 50s.
The associated surface pressure response has created breezy to windy conditions this afternoon across western and central North Dakota, with a wind shift provided by a kink in the pressure field as winds shift to the northwest while the trough passes. The weak cold air advection associated with this trough will be overtaken by another warm air push on Saturday with 850mb temperatures reaching or exceeding 0 C in southern North Dakota. Light snow will be possible Saturday night as the low associated with the earlier warm air push crosses northern North Dakota but ensemble probabilities of greater than one inch of accumulation are low.
308 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Mostly clear skies are expected tonight, with min temperatures warmer than last night, as warm advection and southerly winds begin to increase. Could see some highs in Sat climb into the lower 50s and possibly reach 60 across southern KS by Sun afternoon.
850 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 New Information added to update section Warm advection is occurring in the low levels this evening as a clipper passes across central Canada. Surface ridging moved in over the morning hours, clearing out skies and bringing in dry conditions for the afternoon hours. A weak cold front will cross the region overnight, briefly swinging winds back to the west for the early morning hours. A decent amount of sunshine should be able to reach the surface during this period, so went with the warmer guidance, especially for the snow free sliver of land visible on satellite, approximately stretching from Wood/Portage counties to Menominee. Saturday Night Through Friday The extended models continue 500mb ridging across the Pacific Ocean with downstream troughing across the central United States.
The net effect will be a warmer, breezier day with afternoon highs approaching 50 degrees and occasional gusts between 25-30 mph. Vertical profiles look awfully dry in the lowest few kilometers, and while this will limit coverage, there's some evidence that moisture may fill in just enough to support a stray shower west of Interstate 55.
532 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) Upper-level ridging will build over the Panhandles this afternoon which will allow for light winds and clear skies. At least some areas in the southern Texas Panhandle may observe lows in the low-40s.
536 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Mostly clear skies are expected tonight, with min temperatures warmer than last night, as warm advection and southerly winds begin to increase. Could see some highs in Sat climb into the lower 50s and possibly reach 60 across southern KS by Sun afternoon.
142 PM PST Fri Feb 17 2023 Gradual warming is expected this weekend as the high clouds thin, but gusty easterly winds will continue near the coastal slopes and below passes at times.