Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Key Messages: *Cooler temperatures today *Isolated thunderstorm chances this evening and Monday evening, could see a strong to severe storm *Additional thunderstorms chances through the week Today will remain mostly dry, dewpoints will only be in the upper 40s to low 50s. As far as high temperatures today, most models are in good agreement with highs slightly below normal for today with a cooler air mass in place, kept highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Upper level ridge remains in place over the central CONUS through much of the week. This will generally keep the potential for thunderstorms activity isolated as more of a ridge runner setup for thunderstorms will be in place through the week.
632 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 A ridge of high pressure will build over the area today, before a strong cold front approaches from the northwest Monday.
636 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 (Today through Monday) The broad mid-level ridge will remain parked over northern Mexico into west Texas and will continue to produce strong subsidence across Deep South Texas through the short term. Very warm conditions will continue tonight with lows dropping into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Heat indices overnight will only fall into 80s to the lower 90s across much of the CWA.
303 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Today and Tonight: Generally tranquil conditions will prevail with nearby high pressure allowing for light winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.
Rain will continue to end from west to east this morning with warmer highs expected this afternoon. As this system continues to slowly move east southeast into the Great Lakes region, upper level ridging will approach from the west through the day. At the surface, high pressure will also move into the northern Plains from eastern Wyoming. Northwest winds will remain a bit breezy across the James River Valley through the afternoon as the low exits the region. This pattern will lead to warmer temperatures than the past few days, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s. Upper level ridging will continue to move across the state on Monday as it starts to slightly deamplify.
The associated cold front extends southward through Iowa and northern and west-central Missouri. Cooler air is lagging behind the front, with relief from the heat only expected for locations generally along and north of I-70 this afternoon. Tomorrow, an upper-level trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and dig into the Ohio Valley, placing the CWA beneath deep northwesterly flow aloft as high pressure slides into the region. Greater cloud cover and cooler 850 mb temperatures over portions of west- and south-central Illinois closer to the departing low will favor slightly cooler temperatures there relative to the rest of the CWA.
407 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 - More pleasant temperatures/humidity today/tomorrow - Heat, humidity and storm chances return middle of the week Northerly wind will bring cooler and more dry air into the region today and tomorrow.
A semi-stationary trough over northern California and western Nevada will continue to create areas of showers and storms across the state over the next few days. Today through Monday Today the trough axis from a positively tilted trough will reside over northern California and Western Nevada. Monday the trough undergoes some changes, as it remains quasi-stationary over northern California and western Nevada. It does however breakdown the intermountain ridging and becomes a wider, broader trough with almost a neutral axis orientation. A weak cold front looks to move through the area. Highs will be a bit cooler in the 70s.
- More pleasant temperatures/humidity today/tomorrow - Heat, humidity and storm chances return middle of the week Northerly wind will bring cooler and more dry air into the region today and tomorrow.
RAP Mesoanalysis shows upper ridging building across New Mexico with generally westerly flow aloft. Little is expected to change today, as ridging slowly builds into the region. Temperatures should still be a bit cooler than yesterday, as a result of the weak front that pushed into the plains last evening. Highs should reach the 70s to low 80s across most of the forecast area, except for the higher mountains where 50s/60s are expected. The only other thing of note in the forecast period is the conditional threat of a thunderstorm or two developing across the Cheyenne Ridge later this afternoon.
442 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over west central MN, with high pressure to the west of our area.
Partly cloudy skies cover interior NorCal as southwest flow persists ahead of the eastern Pacific trough.
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 (Today through Monday) The upper ridge has broadened across the southern half of North America, and remains centered to our west over Mexico.
Upper trof approaches Monday and stay in moist southwest flow.
(This evening through Monday) A cold front, that has brought a drier and more comfortable air mass to northern Oklahoma has slowed this afternoon.
Couple that with the high surface temperatures caused by a mass of warm air advection and voila. One interesting note to add for those of you that like to look at models is that the HRRR forecasted afternoon dew points to drop into the low 60s which definitely did not happen. We are still monitoring the potential for another round of severe thunderstorms late tonight into the overnight hours as troughing aloft will help push a weak front across the area. Monday is looking dry and mostly clear with highs in the low 90s and lows in the upper 60s.
On Monday, the upper ridge remains centered to our southwest, while expanding perhaps a bit more to the northeast. A weak disturbance moving around the periphery of the upper ridge across NM may aid in this effort.
256 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 This Evening and Tonight A much cooler and drier air mass has worked into the region today behind a cold front. However, coverage should stay on the low side and most locations are not expected to receive measurable rain.
The cloud cover will be fairly extensive as well along with northwest winds and cooler temperatures. Heading into Monday night we should see improving conditions as mid level flow trends anticyclonic and some surface ridging starts to build in.
1159 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 (Today through Monday) The upper ridge has broadened across the southern half of North America, and remains centered to our west over Mexico.
1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 (Today through Monday) The broad mid-level ridge will remain parked over northern Mexico into west Texas and will continue to produce strong subsidence across Deep South Texas through the short term. Very warm conditions will continue tonight with lows dropping into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Heat indices overnight will only fall into 80s to the lower 90s across much of the CWA.
Temperatures were some 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, ranging from the middle 60s north to the lower 70s south. Since it has been dry recently, the main concern for now would be urban street flooding due to the high rainfall rates, rising water in ditches and creeks and ponding of water on area highways.
A synoptic-scale trough with a positive tilt is currently positioned from the Canadian Rockies across the interior Pacific Northwest to offshore from CA, and it is slowly progressing eastward. As we move through the week, the aforementioned trough over the western US will gradually expand eastward, leading to increasing moisture and disturbances that will result in daily thunderstorm activity.
Additional agitated CU extends ahead of the approaching dryline/cold front S-SW into southern IL. Synoptically, the area will be wedged between a deep trough over the northeast CONUS and a very strong ridge across the southern Plains.
238 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 An upper low over Wisconsin will continue to track east and away from the forecast area overnight, with any diabatically driven showers ending during the early evening over the eastern CWA. For Monday/Monday night s/w ridging aloft will build over the region, providing for mainly dry conditions, and warming temperatures.
328 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Key Messages: * Cooler temperatures with gusty, northwest winds behind a cold front today.
The stubborn ridge over West Texas will shift slightly eastward through the short term with the upper-level ridge centered over South Texas Monday night. The main difference between today and tomorrow is that dewpoint temperatures are anticipated to be a couple degrees cooler, especially out west over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Today and Tonight: Generally tranquil conditions will prevail with nearby high pressure allowing for light winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.
1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 (The rest of today ) Cold front continues to slowly push south across northeast OK and far northwest AR, with a sharp dew point gradient lagging behind the wind shift.
Much of the central and western portions of the cwa are seeing variable wind conditions due to position of the ridge. Eastern locales are continuing to see northerly flow on the east side of the ridge. For the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours, high pressure remains intact allowing for dry conditions to ensue. As the ridge shifts east of the area this evening, looking for a southeasterly flow to set up. On Monday, high pressure east of the cwa, combined with a developing low/trough over eastern Colorado will allow for a decent southerly gradient to ensue with gust potential to 30 mph.
(The rest of today ) Cold front continues to slowly push south across northeast OK and far northwest AR, with a sharp dew point gradient lagging behind the wind shift.
Slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s are expected for Monday, which will be a couple to few degrees above average in most locations. Temperatures are expected to remain around seasonal averages in the 70s to the lower 80s.
209 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Ridging over the area will work to suppress convection over the area this afternoon and evening. That said the amount of ground moisture after recent rains combined with good sunshine this afternoon will generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain, drifting as far east as a Roundup to Billings to Sheridan Wyoming line. Ridging shifts eastward on Monday afternoon allowing for a better chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region. There is also an ongoing Flood Warning for areas along the Bighorn River near Hardin where the high flows on the river are pushing inland through damaged irrigation ditches and canals. Its likely that this water will back-up as it reaches the confluence with the Bighorn River due to the high flows ongoing on the Bighorn River.
Behind the MCS dewpoints may be slightly on the lower side and coupled with again the convective debris could limit insolation keeping temps a degree or two lower than progged in the consensus models.
137 PM PDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Upper level troughing favors cool temperatures, night and morning low clouds with a deep marine layer, as well as gusty west winds over the mountains and deserts each afternoon and evening. Later this week, the upper level pattern shifts to favor high pressure over the Southwestern United States, with warm and dry weather taking hold through the weekend.
203 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Current upper air analysis shows upper low situated over the Great Lakes region, with upper ridging over the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure sits over the southern WY/SD border.
A mix of IFR/LIFR ceilings are covering the coast again as high pressure and a strong inversion linger overhead.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Mid-South tonight ahead of a slow moving cold front. As the cold front moves through north Mississippi Monday morning, thunderstorms will move out of the region.
An upper level trough approaching from the west today will enhance development of showers and thunderstorms.
1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 (Today through Monday) Key Messages: - Continued heat today; slightly better Monday High pressure continues but we have finally had a bit drier air move in.
Upper level high pressure remains centered just west of South-Central Texas over northern Mexico bringing the continued hot and dry weather. The upper ridge shifts slightly east on Monday with temperatures similar to today, possibly a degree or two higher.
156 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances rise ahead of a cold front tonight. A reinforcing cold front Monday.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft shifting east through the Central/Southern Rockies. Near the surface, an area of high pressure is spreading east-southeast through the Northern High Plains. With help of fairly light winds and mostly clear skies, look for lows down into the upper 50s(F) to the lower 60s(F) by early Monday morning. An upper level ridge will move from the Rockies into the Central Plains early in the week, resulting in warm temperatures within the 850mb to 700mb range across Kansas. Recent analysis of the ECMWF ensemble box and whistler plots indicate a possibility of slightly cooler temperatures compared to the initial projections. Additionally, when assessing the 2-m max temperature difference from the mean, a slight majority of the ensembles (60-70%) trended towards a slightly cooler solution for the middle of the week.
- Warmer temperatures with chances of storms mid-late week. A vertically stacked low pressure system continued to churn through Minnesota and Iowa today, inducing a tight pressure gradient across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Winds will ease up through the evening as high pressure seeps in at the surface, behind the departing low. An upper ridge will build out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains, maintaining dry conditions through tomorrow. Noticeably cooler temperatures will continue to ride the northwesterly flow, as afternoon temperatures are expected to top out in the low to mid 80s today, and mid to upper 80s Monday.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft shifting east through the Central/Southern Rockies. Near the surface, an area of high pressure is spreading east-southeast through the Northern High Plains. With help of fairly light winds and mostly clear skies, look for lows down into the upper 50s(F) to the lower 60s(F) by early Monday morning. Minimal thunderstorm chances return early in the period as medium range ensembles show an upper level ridge axis shifting east through the Central Plains, giving way to a west-southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains ahead of an approaching upper level trough.
251 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 TONIGHT: As of mid afternoon, GOES 16 water vapor images show the stacked upper low positioned over southeast MN churning slowly eastward. Stratus will continue to clear out from west to east overnight as the upper low meanders east with showers tapering off as low level stabilize after dark.
Towards the end of the week, high pressure will build across the area, allowing temperatures to rise to above-normal levels.
There will be a strong 40+ kt LLJ advecting high theta-e air at the top of the low level inversion, around 800 mb. With the upper trough still overhead, some isolated to scattered showers will be possible, mainly in the mountains.
858 AM PDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Upper level troughing favors cool temperatures, night and morning low clouds with a deep marine layer, as well as gusty west winds over the mountains and deserts each afternoon and evening. Later this week, the upper level pattern shifts to favor high pressure over the Southwestern United States, with warm and dry weather taking hold through the weekend.
The high resolution models show no convection for the CWA this afternoon and evening. RAP Mesoanalysis shows upper ridging building across New Mexico with generally westerly flow aloft. Little is expected to change today, as ridging slowly builds into the region. Temperatures should still be a bit cooler than yesterday, as a result of the weak front that pushed into the plains last evening. Highs should reach the 70s to low 80s across most of the forecast area, except for the higher mountains where 50s/60s are expected. The only other thing of note in the forecast period is the conditional threat of a thunderstorm or two developing across the Cheyenne Ridge later this afternoon.
(Tonight through Monday night) The mid level ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern for Deep South Texas through the short term period as its axis shifts from just to our west to just to our east over the next 36 hours.
Surface analysis shows a cold front positioned from roughly Bloomington to Taylorville late this morning.
1259 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Key Messages: *Cooler temperatures today *Isolated thunderstorm chances this evening and Monday evening, could see a strong to severe storm *Additional thunderstorms chances through the week Today will remain mostly dry, dewpoints will only be in the upper 40s to low 50s. As far as high temperatures today, most models are in good agreement with highs slightly below normal for today with a cooler air mass in place, kept highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Upper level ridge remains in place over the central CONUS through much of the week. This will generally keep the potential for thunderstorms activity isolated as more of a ridge runner setup for thunderstorms will be in place through the week.
Most locations in the lower elevations will reach or surpass 110F again with 95 to 105 in the mountains.
A cold front is expected to move through the area late Monday.
An upper low over Wisconsin will continue to track east and away from the forecast area overnight, with any diabatically driven showers ending during the early evening over the eastern CWA. For Monday/Monday night s/w ridging aloft will build over the region, providing for mainly dry conditions, and warming temperatures.
Synoptically, the area will be wedged between a deep trough over the northeast CONUS and a very strong ridge across the southern Plains.
An upper level low near eastern Lower Michigan will swing a trough through the area on Monday. Highest PoPs will be in the northeast, closest to the upper low. The upper level low to the northeast will continue to influence the northeast portions of central Indiana with chances for rain continuing at times. Temperatures in these areas will remain cooler than average. To the southwest, less influence from the upper low will bring fewer clouds and temperatures in the 80s. An upper ridge will attempt to move east and influence the area, but the axis will remain well west.
A persistent upper trough remains over the West Coast, with cool breezy onshore flow continuing. Delta Breeze influenced areas are a couple of degrees cooler than the same time yesterday and are experiencing winds gusting to around 20 mph. The trough will shift eastward over far northern California later today and Monday before forming a closed low and settling over southern Oregon.
As the cold front moves through north Mississippi Monday morning, thunderstorms will move out of the region.
Water vapor this afternoon highlights the cyclonic flow over the region well the upper level low centered over SE MN. Monday the low pressure system will have moved farther east into MI leaving the region with cyclonic flow aloft.
636 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 (This evening through Monday) A cold front, that has brought a drier and more comfortable air mass to northern Oklahoma has slowed this afternoon.
630 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 TONIGHT: As of mid afternoon, GOES 16 water vapor images show the stacked upper low positioned over southeast MN churning slowly eastward. Stratus will continue to clear out from west to east overnight as the upper low meanders east with showers tapering off as low level stabilize after dark.
This Evening and Tonight A much cooler and drier air mass has worked into the region today behind a cold front. However, coverage should stay on the low side and most locations are not expected to receive measurable rain.
742 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances rise ahead of a cold front tonight. A reinforcing cold front Monday.
740 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Mid-South tonight ahead of a slow moving cold front. As the cold front moves through north Mississippi Monday morning, thunderstorms will move out of the region.
However, showers are possible overnight due to weak vorticity advection due to the upper low tracking across Lake Michigan. The cloud cover will be fairly extensive as well along with northwest winds and cooler temperatures. Heading into Monday night we should see improving conditions as mid level flow trends anticyclonic and some surface ridging starts to build in.
Temperatures trend cooler with continued active weather over the next few days, but dry and warmer weather may be on track for the second half of this week.
With overnight moisture recovery expected to be a bit higher, lows will be slightly warmer than we have seen the last few nights (mostly due to the influx of dry air).
STP Ridging over the area will work to suppress convection over the area this afternoon and evening. That said the amount of ground moisture after recent rains combined with good sunshine this afternoon will generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain, drifting as far east as a Roundup to Billings to Sheridan Wyoming line. Ridging shifts eastward on Monday afternoon allowing for a better chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region. There is also an ongoing Flood Warning for areas along the Bighorn River near Hardin where the high flows on the river are pushing inland through damaged irrigation ditches and canals. Its likely that this water will back-up as it reaches the confluence with the Bighorn River due to the high flows ongoing on the Bighorn River.
Strong high pressure will start the new week with the hottest temperatures of the year so far. A strong ridge of high pressure across northern Mexico extends into the Desert Southwest, with a high center consolidating near far northwest Mexico over the next 24 hours.
Key Messages: * Cooler temperatures with gusty, northwest winds behind a cold front today.
The Keys also remain under a mid and upper level trough associated with the low to the north. However, the Keys will remain within the grasp of the mid and upper level troughing and overall increased convective potential. An Atlantic ridge reaching into South Florida will lift slightly northwards through the overnight period.
The high wind threat is over but isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight and Monday as a upper low moves in from the west. Made some tweaks to the POPs based on radar trends and expected distribution of showers around the upper low with diurnal enhancement during Monday.
528 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Current upper air analysis shows upper low situated over the Great Lakes region, with upper ridging over the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure sits over the southern WY/SD border.
An upper level low near eastern Lower Michigan will swing a trough through the area on Monday. Highest PoPs will be in the northeast, closest to the upper lowSevere threat continues across the southeast forecast area and far east central areas. The upper level low to the northeast will continue to influence the northeast portions of central Indiana with chances for rain continuing at times. Temperatures in these areas will remain cooler than average. To the southwest, less influence from the upper low will bring fewer clouds and temperatures in the 80s. An upper ridge will attempt to move east and influence the area, but the axis will remain well west.
606 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) The mid level ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern for Deep South Texas through the short term period as its axis shifts from just to our west to just to our east over the next 36 hours.