Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clear skies and nearly calm winds could result in widespread near freezing temperatures across a large portion of the area with 20s in the mountains. Less widespread near freezing temperatures are expected tomorrow night but widespread 30s remain.
- Slight warm-up tomorrow before a shift to cooler, but near average conditions. Issued at 240 CST Tue Nov 21 2023 The light precipitation associated with the cold front passage has diminished and moved out of our area this afternoon. While forecast highs are in the upper 30s, the strong northwest winds are keeping the feels-like temps around or below freezing for today. As such, we could see highs in the upper 40s in eastern MN/western WI and the low 50s in southwestern MN. There is marginal concern for a fire weather risk, especially over southern MN, where winds could gust up to 25 mph and RH values bottom out in the low- mid 30s.
522 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 (Through tonight ) North-northwest flow continues at the surface tonight as high pressure begins to build into the area from the west. Meanwhile, northerly flow aloft develops this evening as a mid level trough originating over the upper midwest dives southward, deepening over MO/AR tonight. Resulting low temperatures tonight will be quite chilly, with northern portions of the area falling into the mid 20s and the remainder of the CWA landing near or slightly below freezing.
- Dry cold front moves through Wednesday bringing blustery conditions by evening. Discussion: Ridging viewable on water vapor imagery is working its way into the Northern Plains helping keep skies mostly sunny this afternoon. This is short lived as a cold front on the head of a large arctic air mass moves into the area starting Wednesday. Ahead of the cold front, seasonably mild conditions are forecast within the southern Valley into west- central Minnesota as temperatures in the 40s to low 50s combine with lighter winds under 15 mph.
The shift towards onshore flow will mean cooler temperatures at the coast Wednesday, but likely still a couple degrees more of warming in the coastal valleys with highs there mostly in the low to mid 80s. Otherwise, for the rest of the week high pressure aloft will weaken and be replaced by a slow moving inside slider trof coming down through the Great Basin. This will bring a rapid return to onshore flow conditions and much cooler temperatures by Thanksgiving.
822 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2023 Recent surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into the FL panhandle region and into GA and the Carolinas, which extends from a low pressure system around the Great Lakes. Large but positively tilted longwave trough from the Great Lakes to W TX expected to move Eward thru Wed leaving tail end upper low over Mexico. Upper energy to lift mainly N of the local area as associated cold front slowly sags thru E Gulf tonight then the FL Peninsula Wed with chance PoPs but fairly light rainfall totals. Drier and cooler conditions for Thanksgiving.
651 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2023 Low pressure will track through the Great Lakes tonight, with a cold front pushing east across the area. High pressure will then build back into the region for mid week, bringing drier air and near seasonable temperatures.
532 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) The cold front has finally made it though the area with breezy northwest winds in its wake. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is centered over Texas with a weak upper ridge to our west. To the east, the upper trough from the cold front is lingering over the southeastern states. The next low pressure system is also taking place over W. The low already has a stream of moisture moving over the area with south-southwest flow aloft.
543 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) The low level stratus deck continues to erode this afternoon, with clear skies now across the western half of the area. This will allow temperatures to drop off into the low to mid 30s area wide.
Cooler temperatures more towards seasonal normals will settle into the region going through the rest of the week.
The passing through of the trough overnight will reinforce the arrival of a much drier and colder air mass.
450 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2023 - Turning cooler for Thanksgiving with snow forming during the evening.
Dry conditions, warmer temperatures, and lighter winds are expected for today and Wednesday. A high pressure system will move across Arizona then exit the area Wednesday evening. The high will be followed by a low pressure system and cold front diving in from the north delivering colder and unsettled weather for the holiday weekend. It will turn noticeably cooler and breezy as the low drops southward across the western states. An embedded disturbance within the approaching low pressure system will deliver a fairly thick high cloud layer on Thanksgiving so sunshine could be at a minimum.
High pressure will begin to weaken tonight as a weather disturbance moves through western Montana and north central Idaho. A wintry mix of precipitation types is expected, with both snow and freezing rain possible. Northwest Montana in particular may have some locally slick roads develop due to ice formation as precipitation will be falling when surface temperatures are below freezing. This will likely come to and end by noon as surfaces warm above freezing.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) Cold front currently moving into far NW GA. The wedge should hold in the far NE until the cold front moves through and scours it out. The cold front will move through the remainder of the CWA overnight. With the low CAPE/high shear environment in place, there is good potential for a QLCS type line to form this afternoon. 500mb trough and mid level low should move through the state tomorrow.
A storm system will then move to our northeast over the weekend, resulting in cooler temperatures, breezy winds and a slight chance of showers.
552 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Cooler and drier weather will persist through Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s.
Thanks to yesterday's cold front, cooler weather can be expected tonight as temperatures drop into the 30s throughout the region. A few locations along the Red River will drop to freezing come sunrise Wednesday.
526 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Showers continue over the plateau with the cold front just west of there. The broad trough is still back to the west over Missouri and Arkansas. The main lobe of energy is digging southward and will become a closed upper low this evening and then move across the area on Wednesday. The clouds will begin to clear west to east during the afternoon as the trough pulls eastward. With clearing skies and calm winds Wednesday night, temperatures will be able to drop to around freezing for Thanksgiving morning.
Breezy but mainly dry conditions will be seen through the evening as the next cold front moves though the area.
943 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2023 The cold front continues to advance southeastward through the forecast area, and is currently positioned roughly from Columbus to Athens. (This afternoon through Wednesday) Cold front currently moving into far NW GA. The wedge should hold in the far NE until the cold front moves through and scours it out. The cold front will move through the remainder of the CWA overnight. With the low CAPE/high shear environment in place, there is good potential for a QLCS type line to form this afternoon. 500mb trough and mid level low should move through the state tomorrow.
358 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Tonight through Wednesday: the highlight of the evening forecast is the cold air advection into the area post cold front passage. Upon the exit of the cold front, colder temperatures, as well as dry air will move into the region. Seasonal low temperatures are expected as lows will be in the lower 40s across the CWA. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly below seasonal (5-10 degrees cooler than seasonal) as high temperatures will be in the middle to upper 50s.
447 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2023 An upper-level ridge axis has kept Wyoming dry and warm Tuesday, a trend that continues through Wednesday. However, the ridge does begin to break down and the upper flow backs to the west Wednesday in advance of an incoming winter storm.
High pressure will build into the area early this week, with a period of valley inversions through Wednesday.
Quiet weather expected for the next couple of days until a Thanksgiving system returns rain and snow chances to the southern Great Basin and western Arizona, and cooler temperatures with gusty north winds to the forecast area into the weekend. It remains windy in parts of the lower CRV this afternoon with gusts around 40 mph at Laughlin/Bullhead City.
(This evening through Wednesday night) The cold front has finally made it though the area with breezy northwest winds in its wake. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is centered over Texas with a weak upper ridge to our west. To the east, the upper trough from the cold front is lingering over the southeastern states. The next low pressure system is also taking place over W. The low already has a stream of moisture moving over the area with south-southwest flow aloft.
226 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2023 Key Messages: - Mild again Wednesday, with elevated fire weather conditions due to low RH and breezy/windy conditions behind a cold front.
An upper-level ridge axis has kept Wyoming dry and warm Tuesday, a trend that continues through Wednesday. However, the ridge does begin to break down and the upper flow backs to the west Wednesday in advance of an incoming winter storm.
408 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2023 Key Messages: - Mild again Wednesday, with elevated fire weather conditions due to low RH and breezy/windy conditions behind a cold front.
Several low level and mid level cloud decks continue across the region as an upper-level longwave trough axis remains over the Mississippi Valley. Another cool day is in-store tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 50s and lows in the low to mid 30s. AEH Cooler and drier weather will persist through Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s.
This will keep temps from completely bottoming out with lows dipping into the lower 30s to upper 20s, but if the clouds clear out quicker before sunrise, then temps may fall into lower 20s, especially out west.
646 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2023 Large but positively tilted longwave trough from the Great Lakes to W TX expected to move Eward thru Wed leaving tail end upper low over Mexico. Upper energy to lift mainly N of the local area as associated cold front slowly sags thru E Gulf tonight then the FL Peninsula Wed with chance PoPs but fairly light rainfall totals. Drier and cooler conditions for Thanksgiving.
229 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2023 - Turning cooler for Thanksgiving with snow forming during the evening.
608 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Tonight through Wednesday: the highlight of the evening forecast is the cold air advection into the area post cold front passage. Upon the exit of the cold front, colder temperatures, as well as dry air will move into the region. Seasonal low temperatures are expected as lows will be in the lower 40s across the CWA. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly below seasonal (5-10 degrees cooler than seasonal) as high temperatures will be in the middle to upper 50s.
809 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2023 - Turning cooler for Thanksgiving with snow forming during the evening.
1030 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2023 - Turning cooler for Thanksgiving with snow forming during the evening.
127 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 Low pressure will cross the region with steady rain gradually diminishing to showers from west to east this morning, but cloudy skies will persist today along with some areas of drizzle. show temperatures above freezing. This combined with weak forcing from the trough moving through will keep the area entrenched in abundant low overcast skies.
This will keep our morning lows warmer in the west than the east. Aloft there is a broad ridge over the western half of the CONUS, with a pocket of warmer 850mb temperatures over the western Dakotas. Today will be anything but quiescent, with a strong cold front moving in. On the backside of the front a strong high pressure bubble will be present. Looking at model soundings the air is colder than freezing just off the surface and aloft, so it may fall as snow but melt on impact. Also with the cold front surface temperatures will be cooling anyways.
1156 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Tonight through Wednesday: the highlight of the evening forecast is the cold air advection into the area post cold front passage. Upon the exit of the cold front, colder temperatures, as well as dry air will move into the region. Seasonal low temperatures are expected as lows will be in the lower 40s across the CWA. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly below seasonal (5-10 degrees cooler than seasonal) as high temperatures will be in the middle to upper 50s.
A weak cold front will cross the region overnight. Forecast soundings show a shallow saturated layer and the best lift within the trough swings across the northern half of the forecast area.
Another cold night is expected tonight although temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer (mins low to mid 30s) compared to early this morning.
1230 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 Cool high pressure will build in tonight through Thanksgiving Day.
The net result will be high temperatures about ten degrees warmer than yesterday, favoring MOS over the slightly cooler NBM numbers. Despite the upper level ridge giving way to a weak trough fair weather will continue with any inclement weather in the state limited to South Texas in proximity to a closed low lifting northeastward out of northeastern Mexico. In this case the slightly warmer NBM temperatures will be favored given modest southwesterly surface winds of 5-10 mph.
339 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 As the low pressure pulls out of the Great Lakes today, a high pressure will then build back into the region for mid week, bringing drier air and near seasonable temperatures.
141 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 Low pressure will track through the Great Lakes tonight, with a cold front pushing east across the area. High pressure will then build back into the region for mid week, bringing drier air and near seasonable temperatures.
Dry conditions, warmer temperatures, and lighter winds are expected for Wednesday.
High pressure settles into the region, leading to a quiet and mostly clear day. Temperatures will increase into the mid 40s, with winds shifting southwesterly ahead of the next weak cold front. This will be a perfect day to travel for Thanksgiving! Temperatures tonight will hover around 30 for most, with northwest winds increasing through the night behind the approaching cold front. Temperatures will range from the low 40s in our northwest, to near 50 in our south. Temperatures Thanksgiving night will cool off quite a bit, with much of the area in the low-mid 20s.
Dry conditions, warmer temperatures, and lighter winds are expected for today and Wednesday.
1256 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 (06Z TAFS) Cold front pushing across the region later today with primary concern of MVFR to brief IFR cigs developing ahead of the front and lingering through passage, and brief MVFR/IFR vsby reductions as showers pass over terminals.
Winds are forecast to become westerly as overnight low temperatures fall into the low to mid 20s across the area. This will create a favorable downsloping regime onto the High Plains. As guidance suggests 16-18C 850mb temperatures have went on the warmer end of guidance with western portions of the area seeing high temperatures in the low 70s to the upper 60s across the east. The warmer temperatures will bring low RH values in the low to mid teens generally along and west of Highway 27. The broad upper trough is expected to continue slowly moving over the Central US stretching from Nevada to Indiana.
/DL/ Tonight through Wednesday: the highlight of the evening forecast is the cold air advection into the area post cold front passage. Upon the exit of the cold front, colder temperatures, as well as dry air will move into the region. Seasonal low temperatures are expected as lows will be in the lower 40s across the CWA. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly below seasonal (5-10 degrees cooler than seasonal) as high temperatures will be in the middle to upper 50s.
1032 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Showers continue over the plateau with the cold front just west of there. The broad trough is still back to the west over Missouri and Arkansas. The main lobe of energy is digging southward and will become a closed upper low this evening and then move across the area on Wednesday. The clouds will begin to clear west to east during the afternoon as the trough pulls eastward. With clearing skies and calm winds Wednesday night, temperatures will be able to drop to around freezing for Thanksgiving morning.
(Today) Tranquil weather is expected to prevail across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure prevails over the area.
A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic to bring gusty northwest winds and drier air by Wednesday afternoon. High pressure remains wedged against the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge, while a moist easterly flow continues to keep conditions cloudy and cool. The main line of the rain is approaching the Blue Ridge, and it will take a few more hours before this rain exits east of Danville and Lynchburg. The wind should turn to the northwest by Wednesday morning as a cold front reaches the Appalachian Mountains. This front should erode the wedge in the Piedmont, while the northwest wind increases and gusts up to 30 MPH along the higher elevations.
1020 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2023 An upper-level ridge axis has kept Wyoming dry and warm Tuesday, a trend that continues through Wednesday. However, the ridge does begin to break down and the upper flow backs to the west Wednesday in advance of an incoming winter storm.
Forecast soundings show a shallow saturated layer and the best lift within the trough swings across the northern half of the forecast area.
Currently - An Atlantic ridge stretching across Central and South Florida is maintaining moderate to fresh east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys region this evening. Deep layered ridging remains aligned across our area and this evenings sounding indicated warm dry air persist through the mid and upper levels. This will bring the Keys closer to the western end of the ridge axis and result in winds trending sharply downwards through the overnight period. Deep layered ridging and associated poor precipitable water and inhibition will keep rain chances down. A ridge across South Florida will shift eastwards closer to the Keys through the overnight hours.
The upper level low/trough that brought all of the rain to the area on Tuesday has pretty much made its way east of the state at this early hour. There is decent agreement amongst the models that the clouds will try to clear out this evening and overnight as high pressure builds in at the sfc.
1101 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) The low level stratus deck continues to erode this afternoon, with clear skies now across the western half of the area. This will allow temperatures to drop off into the low to mid 30s area wide.
The ridge over the West Coast looks to flatten, as an upper level trough brings precipitation into the region late Wednesday.
Gusty northwest winds will kick in by this afternoon in the wake of the cold front.
A cold front will bring breezy north winds and scattered light showers for Thanksgiving Day. A cold front will sweep through the Great Basin Thanksgiving Day and bring scattered showers and brisk north winds. * Today will be the warmest day for awhile although valley inversions will still be tough to break in some of the lowest western NV valleys. * As a trough drops southward through the Great Basin Thanksgiving Day, winds will turn north and increase by afternoon.
and Thursday Key Messages: - No weather worries for Thanksgiving Day travelers Forecast Details: Weak ridging will provide for a partly sunny and mild day today. A cold front will move across the region tonight.
(Today and tonight) As of 3:30 AM CST, we have multiple observations across the area that are at, or around, freezing. Being wedged between a low pressure system of to the east and a ridge off to the west, we are largely going to see benign weather across the region.
639 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 (12Z TAFS) Primary aviation concern today will be MVFR to brief IFR cigs and brief MVFR/IFR vsby reductions as a cold front push across the region later today with some showers possible. that will drive a cold front preceded by breezy southerly winds along with showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder across the area today.
Highs will be in the low 40s. The cold front should move through around dawn on Thanksgiving and bring winds around to northwesterly. Highs again should reach the low 40s on Thanksgiving under mostly clear skies, with the cold advection behind the front not really being truely appreciated until Thursday night, when lows will drop into the teens.
that will drive a cold front preceded by breezy southerly winds along with showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder across the area today.
500 mb low pressure, currently located over the Gulf of California, will move east across Mexico and then northeast over the BRO CWFA and the Texas coastline during the period. The chance of precipitation will rapidly end from west to east on Thanksgiving Day as the 500 mb low moves farther away, and a zonal mid-level becomes established overhead in the wake of the low. Temperature-wise, significant cloud cover associated with the low will help hold daytime high and overnight low temperatures at well below normal values for this time of year.
Chilly and mostly dry conditions will prevail for the next several days, with morning lows approaching freezing starting Thanksgiving morning.
406 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 Low pressure will cross the region with the steady rain gradually diminishing to showers from west to east this morning, but cloudy skies will persist today along with some areas of drizzle. This combined with weak forcing from the trough moving through will keep the area entrenched in abundant low overcast skies.
Today and Tonight: A secondary trough embedded within the broader longwave trough over the Eastern U. This should help push the cold front (lingering across east central Georgia this morning) out into the Atlantic and bring the rain shower activity over east central Georgia to an end by mid morning. As the day progresses and the core of the secondary trough tracks over north Georgia, prevailing northwest winds will drive a shallow (< 1 km in depth) saturated layer into the slopes of the mountains.
Upper trough is directly ovhd attm and will continue to move east into the Tenn Valley and eventually the Appalachians. The southwest portion of this longwave trough has become cutoff across Old Mexico and it's this disturbance that will move slowly eastward tonight and will begin to open up quickly during the day Thursday, bringing with it increased cloud cover from the south and eventually, some small rain chances Thursday Night. 13 (Thursday Night through Wednesday) By Thursday evening, PoPs associated with the upper trough will continue to move across the extreme SE tier of the FA. As mentioned in the previous forecast packages over the last two days, the trend continues to appear drier for our area as the trough and associated low looks to remain further south than early solutions suggested.
634 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 Low pressure will cross the region with the steady rain gradually diminishing to showers from west to east this morning, but cloudy skies will persist today along with some areas of drizzle. This combined with weak forcing from the trough moving through will keep the area entrenched in abundant low overcast skies.