Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the synoptic scale, the forecast area is lodged between high pressure centered across the Ozarks and a weak area of low pressure located over the Mid-South. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s, with low temperatures tonight falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s under increasing clouds. Our next chance of widespread precipitation will arrive Friday afternoon into Friday night as a cold front moves through the area. Dew point temperatures will rise back into the lower to middle 60s by Friday afternoon.
Interior counties like Polk and Highlands have the highest chances in the late afternoon.
226 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 High pressure moves to off the southern New England coast by late today. Developing coastal low pressure will bring increasing rain chances to portions of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina Friday and Friday night, followed by cold front pushing across the mid-Atlantic region over the weekend. A little better model agreement WRT potential coastal lo pres/trough Fri-Fri night. trough aloft tracks from the Great Lakes to the NE CONUS Sat-Sun. Additional restrictions are then possible ahead of and coincident with a cold frontal passage Sat aftn into Sat night/early Sun.
Meanwhile, upper level disturbance pushing offshore into the Atlantic and associated frontal boundary stretching south across the Southeast continue to interact with high pressure over southern portions of the state. As a result, west to southwesterly flow remains in place keeping the highest chances for showers and storms over interior locations through the period.
High pressure over the Great Lakes is providing a light northeast to east breeze across central Illinois and otherwise fair conditions. Deubelbeiss High pressure anchored over the Great Lakes will dominate the weather across central Illinois tonight. Despite a high/thin overcast created by smoke from Canadian wildfires and a light breeze, efficient cooling of the drying airmass will lead to chilly overnight lows ranging from the middle 40s near the Indiana border to the lower 50s across the SW KILX CWA. As the high shifts off to the east, boundary layer flow will become increasingly southerly on Thursday. 12z May 17 models are all in excellent agreement with the timing of an approaching cold front, with general consensus showing it reaching the Illinois River by shortly after sunrise, then dropping south of I-70 by mid-afternoon.
317 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and dry conditions today.
Aside from a dry cold front slowly tracking through the CWA, the forecast period will remain mostly quiet. High pressure continues to remain over the Ohio Valley which has kept skies mostly clear. Clear skies and CAA behind the front will keep temperatures cooler overnight which in turn will favor fog development in the sheltered valleys. In recent model runs, models have moved the trough further north into the Tennessee Valley which would keep lingering PoP in the forecast through Thursday night. Once the low pulls off to the east, high pressure builds back into the region for early Friday morning with areas of river valley fog likely as well.
In the meantime, we remain parked underneath an upper ridge keeping skies (mostly) clear.
1053 PM MDT Wed May 17 2023 As I write this around noon, radar is beginning to light up with a scattering of showers and thunderstorms across the area as a cold front sags slowly southward across the state. However, with a slow moving trough continuing to swing through showers and even isolated thunderstorms will likely linger into the evening and even overnight hours. Thursday will be cooler and unsettled day with another scattering of showers and thunderstorms as the trough will still be slowly moving across the Cowboy State. Temperatures should average around 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. The higher heights will also sharply reduce the coverage of showers and storms.
1253 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) For tonight, showers and thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain of northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado along the vicinity of a surface trof of low pressure will continue tracking east and southeast into the forecast area through tonight. A cold front will move through the region late Thursday night.
312 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 Temperatures will rise rapidly early today from early morning lows in the 30s and 40s and should reach the low to mid 70s during the afternoon.
* Cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday behind a cold front.
332 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 Discussion/Marine/FireWeather - Showers Along a Cold Front for Friday Good model consensus exists for showers on Friday ahead of and along a cold front that will push through the region.
Key Messages: - Shower and non-severe thunderstorm chances today as a cold front moves through.
400 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (Issued 400 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023) Today through Friday: Low pressure will track across Ontario and the nrn Great Lakes through tnt with the trailing compact upper low reaching wrn Lake Superior at 12Z Fri. The cold frontal passage will occur tnt over srn WI, possibly lingering into Fri AM over far se WI. Nwly winds, cold advection, and stratocumulus clouds will then prevail the remainder of the day as the upper low moves across nrn WI.
(Today through Friday) Quiet start to the morning with a weak upper low moving over the mid state. Combined with diurnal help, this low will be able to get some showers and storms to develop late morning through the afternoon mainly in the eastern half of the mid state.
(Today through Friday Night) Warm and humid but otherwise generally uneventful conditions will persist throughout the remainder of the week prior to the approach of a weak cold front this weekend. Clear skies, along with gradual midlevel ridging and a resumption of WAA/onshore moisture transport, will allow for highs to rise into the upper 80s across the majority of the area.
Afternoon highs will reach the lower 80s over NW AL but will be a bit more limited to the east where shower/storm coverage is expected to be greater.
431 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 The latest 8Z surface analysis depicts the cold front which had originally stalled across the CWA has now dropped south of the area and is now draped through the northeast Tennessee and northwest North Carolina. Today will be warmer with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s expected. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon as an upper level short wave crosses the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley this afternoon. A trough across south-central Canada will dig into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes today and tonight. Friday will start out dry but cloud cover will increase ahead of the cold front. Pop up showers and storms will be possible friday afternoon as the cold front continues to sag southeast into the Ohio Valley by 18Z Friday afternoon.
A cold front moves through the area late tonight into Friday, bringing our next chance for showers and storms. The aforementioned cold front will approach from the west late tonight into Friday, spreading light rain across the area.
1259 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Convection is on the wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating and as a weak cold front brings a somewhat drier low level airmass into the area. A low pressure center developed over northern LA along the cold front which had dipped into our forecast area yesterday, and this low caused the front to stall east of it.
High pressure over the Great Lakes Region will bring continued dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures today, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
The cyclone that will bring this precipitation is continuing to make its way southward across interior Canada. This causes cold frontogenesis across much of the country with the cold front expected to span from the upper Great Lakes to the Texas panhandle. High pressure reestablishes itself over the region for the weekend.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms increase Thursday afternoon into the night as a weak cold front makes its way southeast through the region. Cloud cover increases throughout the day ahead of a slow-moving cold front.
This energy will not produce any precip but will bring a reinforcing dose of cooler air from the north. Surface analysis shows a cold front draped from Malta to Sidney at 0730z.
This will likely keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer in these zones. The light NW flow aloft will continue as the troughing today exits stage right and some mid level ridging builds into TX/OK on Thursday ahead of our next approaching system. Overnight, we will rise back through the 60s with a warmer range of mid to upper 60s for lows Friday morning.
357 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 High pressure is across the region this morning, resulting in a hard freeze inland from the lakes and patchy frost all the way to the lakeshores. Warmer today and especially Friday.
330 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 In the short term, smoke will remain an issue into this afternoon, and showers will remain a possibility as well as the low pressure system passes directly over our area. As the center of the low pressure system traverses over our area, some wraparound precipitation will occur as well. With the proximity of the low pressure center to our area, we could see some higher lapse rates where we can clear out. Tonight and tomorrow, the rain moves out and ridging builds in to our west.
Temperatures had climbed into the lower 70s to lower 80s across the CWA with NE winds at or around 10 knots or less.
An upper level trough will move across the northern Plains today and then will move southeast across the region Friday into Friday night. Highs this afternoon will warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Moisture will increase across the area ahead of the trough tonight and Friday. An upper level disturbance will move across Oklahoma and Kansas tonight and across southern Missouri morning ahead of the main upper level trough. A cold front will also move southeast across the region Friday morning into Friday evening ahead of the upper level trough.
231 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 A large area of high pressure will bring an unseasonably cold night tonight and continue our string of dry, pleasant days across the Commonwealth through much of Friday.
(Today through Friday afternoon) A closed upper low will continue to meander around Baja today as a ridge extends up from Mexico across TX and NM. The ridge is expected to strengthen Friday keeping the low at bay. Friday will be a little warmer for most locations but a cold front will blow into the area during the afternoon so nrn locations behind the front will not reach the same highs as today.
107 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 (Rest of today through Thursday) The mid-level trough will continue to deepen and shift over the SE CONUS today and tomorrow and with adequate moisture in place there is expected to be some scattered showers and thunderstorms over the region today. With energy from the digging trough, this will be enough to spark scattered showers and thunderstorms in addition to any sea breeze interactions. For Thursday, a similar setup will take place except that the aforementioned mid-level trough will be more situated over the Florida Peninsula.
347 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 High pressure will provide for mostly sunny skies to much of the area today. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will develop later Friday afternoon and into Friday night as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a weak inverted trough will nose up into the lower Scioto Valley through this afternoon. With some weak low level convergence associated with the inverted trough, some cu will likely develop later this afternoon. The inverted trough will shift slowly northwest through tonight along with a continued increase in lower level moisture. A better chance for showers and embedded thunderstorms will then spread into our northwest later Friday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
1042 PM PDT Wed May 17 2023 Daytime highs remain warmer across the interior while coastal areas will hold near to slightly below normal highs due to the cooling influence of coastal stratus. Inland, temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 60s to mid 80s under the influence of a ridge of high pressure.
404 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 High pressure will wedge against the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge later tonight, which should provide increasing clouds.
(Today through Friday Night ) Quiet conds noted acrs the FA early this mrng thanks primarily to a weak high pressure system. Dry weather is expected once again today and much of tngt as the Mid- South resides under a weak upper ridge. Light E/NE sfc winds wl keep drier air in place as highs top out in the lower and mid 80s. The assocd trof axis and sfc CDFNT wl eventually move into AR fm the NW Fri night.
Weak cold front has washed out with surface winds from the east and light. Byrd A cold front is crawling south through the CWA this afternoon, currently extending from central Missouri through south central Illinois. Low to mid-level warm air and moisture advection will increase tomorrow night ahead of the next cold front, keeping low temperatures above average for mid-May. Jaja An upper level trough in south central Canada will deepen as it moves southeast through the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow night. The temperature spread for highs on Friday will range from low-70s behind the cold front and low-80s ahead of it.
Dry air has kept dew points in the low/mid 40s across southern IN and the Blue Grass while most of central and south-central KY was in the low/mid 50s. With the cloud cover, lows will warmer in the upper 50s to near 60.
- Smoke from the Canadian wildfires looks to remain over the area into Thursday/Thursday night with some potential for this to get mixed to the surface behind the cold front. An upper level low over the Canadian Prairies is still expected to sink southeastward towards the region overnight and through the day Thursday. At the surface, a cold front looks to push southeastward across the local area Thursday afternoon-night. With the cold front coming through the area, there looks to be a good potential for some of this smoke to get mixed down to the surface. The upper level system that pushes the cold front through the region Thursday and Thursday night may still be spinning over the northern Great Lakes Friday.
357 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and dry conditions today.
A diurnal trend in convection is anticipated with drier conditions tonight into Friday morning as the trough axis begins to shift eastward.
Latest analysis shows an upper low over Manitoba swinging an upper trough across the forecast area. A few strong to severe storms are still possible into this evening, with the best chances along and near the cold front over south central South Dakota. Near surface smoke from the Canadian wildfires will continue to flow southward into the forecast area tonight, likely leading to reductions in visibility on Thursday, and especially on Friday On Thursday, cyclonic flow aloft combined with leftover moisture may lead to isolated afternoon showers, especially over the Black Hills, given convergence over the higher terrain. Friday, would have been a nice day with comfortable temperatures and clear skies due to the high pressure center sliding southward into the forecast area.
This feature coincides with a LL thermal ridge/stronger heating and may focus initiation in our SW counties by mid afternoon.
A few thin high clouds in the region with low level ridging centered over the area building east through the day.
(Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Drier and Warmer An upper-level ridge currently located over northern Mexico will move eastward today across South Texas ushering in significantly drier air, with PWATs as low as 1. The ridge is expected to build Thursday night into Friday, resulting in plenty of sunshine. With the ridge continuing to build tomorrow, temperatures out west are expected to peak in the upper 90s.
426 AM PDT Thu May 18 2023 A weak upper level low pressure system to the south will maintain a flow of mid level moisture from the east into the area through the weekend with a slight chance of mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the mountains. The marine layer will keep coastal areas cooler with inland high temperatures above average.
617 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Drier and Warmer An upper-level ridge currently located over northern Mexico will move eastward today across South Texas ushering in significantly drier air, with PWATs as low as 1. The ridge is expected to build Thursday night into Friday, resulting in plenty of sunshine. With the ridge continuing to build tomorrow, temperatures out west are expected to peak in the upper 90s.
* Smoke from Canadian wildfires will move into the area behind a cold front today into tonight. * Cooler and breezy on Friday, then warming through the weekend.
Another upper level trough digs across the Midwestern U. Upper level ridging building in tomorrow should allow for a much tamer afternoon Friday with only isolated showers and thunderstorms. Given expected convective coverage, temperatures will be a bit cooler today with highs generally in the lower to middle 80's.
626 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 High pressure is across the region this morning, resulting in a hard freeze inland from the lakes and patchy frost all the way to the lakeshores. Warmer today and especially Friday.
(Today and tonight) Weak ridging will reside over the area today in advance of a closed mid/upper low over the Baja Peninsula, with an upper trough situated over the Upper Midwest states. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today than yesterday, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
619 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (Today through Friday Night) Warm and humid but otherwise generally uneventful conditions will persist throughout the remainder of the week prior to the approach of a weak cold front this weekend. Clear skies, along with gradual midlevel ridging and a resumption of WAA/onshore moisture transport, will allow for highs to rise into the upper 80s across the majority of the area.
634 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Smoke is the main concern today as the upper trough drags air down from Canadian wildfires with northwest flow at the sfc. Smoke and the lower heights in the upper torugh will also result in below normal highs today, topping out in the mid 60s to lower 70s. With the high moving overhead tonight, temps will dip down into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
645 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again today across portions of north Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Most of Friday will be dry, but showers and thunderstorms will move into the area by late afternoon into the overnight hours as a cold front moves across the Mid-South.
953 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and dry conditions today.
601 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 High pressure moves to off the southern New England coast by late today. Developing coastal low pressure will bring increasing rain chances to portions of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina Friday and Friday night, followed by cold front pushing across the mid-Atlantic region over the weekend. A little better model agreement WRT potential coastal lo pres/trough Fri-Fri night. trough aloft tracks from the Great Lakes to the NE CONUS Sat-Sun. Additional restrictions are then possible ahead of and coincident with a cold frontal passage Sat aftn into Sat night/early Sun.
518 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 A large area of high pressure will bring an unseasonably cold night tonight and continue our string of dry, pleasant days across the Commonwealth through much of Friday.
641 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 High pressure will build down the east side of the Appalachians today and will remain in place Friday as a low develops off the Carolina coast.
645 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (Today and tonight) Weak ridging will reside over the area today in advance of a closed mid/upper low over the Baja Peninsula, with an upper trough situated over the Upper Midwest states. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today than yesterday, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
746 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 Aviation - Showers Along a Cold Front for Friday Good model consensus exists for showers on Friday ahead of and along a cold front that will push through the region.
625 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (Today through Friday Night ) Quiet conds noted acrs the FA early this mrng thanks primarily to a weak high pressure system. Dry weather is expected once again today and much of tngt as the Mid- South resides under a weak upper ridge. Light E/NE sfc winds wl keep drier air in place as highs top out in the lower and mid 80s. The assocd trof axis and sfc CDFNT wl eventually move into AR fm the NW Fri night.
A large scale upper level ridge with axis extending from the western US north through far western Canada remains in place through the weekend with a mid level low moving SE out of central Canada around a larger scale trough to the east. At the surface, high pressure centered across central AB/SK extends south across MT and gradually shifts southward across the Dakotas tonight through Friday.
526 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 High pressure will build down the east side of the Appalachians today and will remain in place Friday as a low develops off the Carolina coast.
The ridge of high pressure builds over the region this weekend. Westerly winds associated with this ridge should help to push out the smoke from the region.
621 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and dry conditions today.
Through the end of the weekend, the Florida Keys will remain wedged between a decaying frontal boundary drapped over the Southeast, a weak area of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, and a more pronounced high in the central to eastern Atlantic.
The upper level ridge axis will slide to our east by this afternoon, allowing the very broad closed low over the northeast Pacific to nudge just a bit closer to the Pacific northwest. The resulting pattern, which we expect to remain in place through the weekend, places southern Oregon and far northern California under southwest flow and slightly cooler temperatures aloft.
/22/ An overall cooler and drier pattern than we have seen lately is in store, as upper troughing persists for at least the first half of the period.
814 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 After a chilly start, it will be warmer later today and especially Friday.
1059 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 High pressure will provide for mostly sunny skies to much of the area today. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will develop later Friday afternoon and into Friday night as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. Still seeing a signal that inverted trough/low level convergence axis will further develop across Kentucky and extend up into the lower Scioto Valley and northeast Kentucky by the end of the afternoon, and may be the impetus for a shower or two. The inverted trough will shift slowly northwest through tonight along with a continued increase in lower level moisture. A better chance for showers and embedded thunderstorms will then spread into our northwest later Friday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
625 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 Temperatures will rise rapidly early today from early morning lows in the 30s and 40s and should reach the low to mid 70s during the afternoon.
High pressure centered along the West Coast will gradually build inland today, which will keep us under a light northwesterly steering flow.