Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
947 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 A cold front will move southeast across the region today, ushering in a more seasonable airmass for the rest of the week. Cold front has nearly exited our southeastern counties, discernible by a ~10 degree drop in Tds. Previous discussion-> The cold front has moved into the northwest portions of our area early this morning with an axis of showers along and just ahead of the front. The pcpn will continue to shift off to the east this morning as the cold front moves through the rest of our area. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 40s with highs on Friday mostly in the mid 50s. This high will provide mostly sunny skies and cool temperatures. Mid-level ridging over the Rocky Mountains will shift east into the High Plains to start the week.
--------------------------------------------------------------------- Key Messages: - Cold front moving through today bringing cooler temperatures. The cold front has taken a slower path through the Ohio Valley this morning and is just now touching our northern border. The cold front will continue to move southeast likely bisecting the region by daybreak. The cold front will continue to move southeast through the region. Behind the front, cooler air and clear skies will quickly move into the northern portion of the CWA. The high temperatures for today will likely occur this morning in these areas. This will help induce isentropic lift over the aforementioned cold front, providing the region with light, stratiform rain through the night. Low temperatures in the morning will be in the low-mid 40s.
640 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 Departing upper ridging and high pressure will keep conditions dry with above normal temperatures today. A cold front will move into the region Friday into the weekend bringing a chance of showers and much cooler temperatures.
We tallied up 3 in a row, but with a cold front just off to our northwest, we're going to see temperatures finally fall back to where they should be this time of the year. A few spots south of I-40 could see a little more, which will be welcomed as the southern half of the area remains in the higher of the drought categories, but it's still not going to put a dent in the current conditions.
Wrap around snow is also making it's way into the north as an upper low over Ontario continues to churn. These wrap around showers are from an upper level low over Ontario. The upper level low that brought windy conditions to the region continues to move slowly across Ontario. High temperatures will cool off into the lower 30s north to lower 40s south as a cooler air mass sags into the Northern Plains. Friday high temperatures will struggle to warm into the 30s for the northeast while the southwest will warm into the lower 40s. Broad troughing over the Great Lakes will push into the Northeast opening the door for a weak upper level ridge to traverse across the Canadian Plains.
Low pressure center continues to push out of SE Lower Michigan and into the Eastern Great Lakes early this morning. Another low pressure system is currently centered over Western Ontario. with an occluded/cold front extending thru Western Lake Superior and Central Wisconsin into Eastern Iowa and Northern Missouri. Low pressure will steadily track eastward thru Ontario today and then continue thru Quebec tonight. Low temps tonight will cool mainly into the low to mid 30s. An upper level trough and an associated band of precipitation is expected to move across Northern Lower Friday morning (in the form of rain and snow showers). Cold air advection behind this trough will lead to increased over lake instability while winds veer into the northwest.
A chance of light mountain snow showers along the ID/NV border late tonight through early Friday as a weak cold front clips northern NV. Today through Friday night A trough and surface cold front pushing eastward across the Pacific NW will clip across the northern part of the state today.
524 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 (Today and tonight) A cool and damp day is in the making in the wake of last night's cold front shoving through the Permian Basin as of 2 AM. An elongated, positively-tilted upper trough axis just upstream of this moisture plume will make slow progress east later today while leaving a vort max orphaned in the Desert SW. Despite a favorable subtropical jet loitering over the region today and a modest H7 trough arriving from Chihuahua, models are anemic with isentropic ascent in our region. Temperature-wise, daily highs have likely been met as of midnight with values only expected to creep lower through the morning, particularly as top-down saturation breeds wet bulb cooling through the lower levels.
(Today and tonight) A cool and damp day is in the making in the wake of last night's cold front shoving through the Permian Basin as of 2 AM. An elongated, positively-tilted upper trough axis just upstream of this moisture plume will make slow progress east later today while leaving a vort max orphaned in the Desert SW. Despite a favorable subtropical jet loitering over the region today and a modest H7 trough arriving from Chihuahua, models are anemic with isentropic ascent in our region. Temperature-wise, daily highs have likely been met as of midnight with values only expected to creep lower through the morning, particularly as top-down saturation breeds wet bulb cooling through the lower levels.
541 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 Rain chances are expected to gradually return to the Mid-South today as a cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Much cooler air will return behind this front with temperatures falling back into the 40s tonight and highs on Friday struggling to reach 60 degrees.
640 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 High pressure will dominate the region today before moving offshore. A cold front will slip south through the region Friday. Chilly high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard from SE Canada this weekend. Dry weather continues tonight even with the cold front to be bearing down on our region from the north late tonight. The cold front will approach late tonight, then move through central NC from the north Friday. It will turn much cooler with a NE flow and cloudy skies behind the front Friday. Look for overcast skies and cooler temperatures with the NE flow Friday night with lows in the 40s.
527 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 Key Message: * Gusty westerly winds today up to 35 mph north of I-80 with sporadic gusts up to 40 mph A temporarily tight pressure gradient between high pressure nosing east from the Plains and low pressure near Lake Superior will be the primary mechanism for today's brisk westerly winds. Early morning lows will be in the low-mid 30s outside of Chicago and upper 30s in the city. Despite mostly sunny skies, aside perhaps for a few-scattered strato-Cu, Friday's cooler air mass will result in highs in the mid 40s to around 50F north of I-80 and upper 40s-low 50s (locally mid 50s) south of I-80.
328 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 High pressure will extend across the region through Friday.
A cold front will drop south Friday night with rain and snow showers in central NY. Clearing has worked into NEPA and south central NY ahead of the cold front from the Adirondacks to the Poconos. Qpf is light and so will snowfall as temperatures remain above freezing. Friday clouds increase ahead of a cold front that drops southeast Friday night and a system passing across the mid Atlantic states. Some snow accumulations under half an inch are possible across the higher terrain. Low temperatures will be mostly in the low and mid 30s.
Mid morning surface analysis had a cold front stretching across the Tennessee valley, over northwest Mississippi and across southern Arkansas. A 1027mb high was noted over the central Plains that will continue to push the cold front southeast into our CWA this afternoon despite our winds aloft remaining southwesterly. Highs today will range from the low 70s across the Delta to the low 80s across the south. Much cooler air will move in behind the boundary overnight, with lows in the upper 40s to near 50 across the Delta, to the low 60s in the Pine Belt.
(This evening through Friday Night) We are seeing the last of the warm/humid air this afternoon ahead of a cold front now pushing into southeastern TX. For coastal areas /south of I10/, don't expect much improvement for the next 24-36 hrs with max temperatures 20 or so degrees cooler Friday than today.
1111 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 Any remaining areas of rain will end as a cold front exits the region this afternoon. A wave of low pressure will return precipitation chances late tonight and Friday, mainly south of Interstate 68. Dry conditions and cooler temperatures are then expected through the weekend under high pressure. The latest mesoanalysis shows a cold front extending across northern WV through southern OH. This evening through a majority of early Friday morning will stay dry and quiet in the wake of the cold front. With weak cold advection aloft temperatures overnight will likely stay above average, in the low 40s to upper 30s. Increase subsidence in the mid-lvls will diminish any remaining precipitation in the ridges of West Virginia by 3pm.
1242 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 A cold front will move southeast across the region today, ushering in a more seasonable airmass for the rest of the week. Cold front has nearly exited our southeastern counties, discernible by a ~10 degree drop in Tds. Previous discussion-> The cold front has moved into the northwest portions of our area early this morning with an axis of showers along and just ahead of the front. The pcpn will continue to shift off to the east this morning as the cold front moves through the rest of our area. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 40s with highs on Friday mostly in the mid 50s. This high will provide mostly sunny skies and cool temperatures. Mid-level ridging over the Rocky Mountains will shift east into the High Plains to start the week.
A sharp cold front is then expected to arrive late Friday afternoon and evening, bringing much cooler and wetter conditions for the weekend as cold air wedge sets up.
Cool morning with continued gusty northeast winds as the trough continues to remain across the region. The trough starts to slide to the south and east through this evening and some the associated energy may be enough to help a few rain or snow showers develop towards the eastern White Mountains. Cold air will continue to filter into the region for the next day or so, fueled by troughing over the Upper Midwest and a weak trough backbuilding over Arizona. The weak trough over eastern Arizona may lead to a few, high-based rain or snow showers in the next 36 hours or so, impacts should be minimal.
This low will work its way southeast, clipping northeastern counties (Fallon, Custer and northern Rosebud), bringing an small chance for precipitation during the overnight hours. Into Friday, mid level flow transitions to westerly with some slight ridging allowing for warm and dry conditions. High temperatures will be in the 40s and low 50s today and tomorrow with ridging allowing for more uniform temps across the region tomorrow.
1145 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 The cold front currently extends from north Alabama across north Mississippi and into southern Arkansas. ARS Rain chances are expected to gradually return to the Mid-South today as a cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Much cooler air will return behind this front with temperatures falling back into the 40s tonight and highs on Friday struggling to reach 60 degrees.
246 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 Unseasonably warm and dry weather will continue into Friday as high pressure moves farther off the Southeast coast.
926 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 Near normal temperatures and a lack of precipitation are expected to characterize the weekend as an upper trough across the Great Lakes shifts gradually east. -------------------------- [Discussion] -------------------------- After a (near) record setting day of warmth, cooler air from the north is pouring across the Prairie State behind a cold front.
By the weekend we start a warming trend as a ridge builds over the central United States.
(18Z TAFS) General VFr conditions across the forecast area will drop to low end MVFR tonight into Friday as a weak cold front sags south across the area, reaching the northern Gulf coast by the end of the forecast.
(This evening through Friday Night) Big changes are unfolding for the Four State Region, as the aforementioned cold front has arrived on our door step. Overnight temps will be noticeably cooler tonight, with lows ranging from the upper 40s north of I-20, to the low to mid 50s across the remainder of the region. The cooler conditions will continue Friday, as temperatures will struggle to reach 60 degrees under cloud cover and northerly winds.
Sunshine should boost us into the lower 60s in most locations.
Scattered to broken mid to high level cloud will persist today as upper level troughs traverse the northern plains and southern Rockies. The thickest cloud will be across far western Kansas so that temperatures should stay a few degrees cooler there today (52-55) compared to central Kansas (58-60).
Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s / lower 30s in northwestern Oklahoma to the low to mid 40s across western north Texas and south central Oklahoma.
The clouds across northern Wisconsin this afternoon will gradually sing southward tonight as a cold front moves through the area. Later this evening into Friday, northwesterly winds moving over the relatively warmer waters of Lake Superior will bring the chances of snow showers or flurries to north-central Wisconsin. Skies will be mostly cloudy on Friday, thus readings will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler across central Wisconsin into the Fox Valley and lakeshore.
A weak cold front is moving through the area today with scattered showers and colder air moving in. Analysis and Discussion: A weak cold front has moved through the area and cooler temperatures have begun to filter in behind the front with clearing skies taking place across the north. Models have continued to trend drier and drier with this disturbance and today has been no different as QPF continues to remain on the lower side. Cold air advection will favor cooler temperatures on Friday with even colder temperatures expected overnight Friday. Temperatures dropping down into the mid-30s Friday night is expected and possibly into the lower-30s where radiational cooling could take place but mainly in the Bluegrass Counties where some sky clearing could take place. Otherwise, trending relatively cooler and drier for the end of the period.
(Tonight through Friday night) A stream of Pacific moisture aloft continues to be ushered into south central Texas between the subtropical ridge centered over the northern Caribbean and a trough to our west that will never really reach our region. At the surface, a cold front will be exiting southward out of our region this afternoon, but temperatures and dew points will be slow to cool further.
934 AM PST Thu Nov 9 2023 Warmer and dry conditions expected through the weekend with gusty Santa Ana winds diminishing today.
217 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 (Issued 217 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023) Tonight and Friday: It is very windy this afternoon thanks to low pressure tracking across Ontario and high pressure building into the Plains. Look for winds to diminish overnight as the low departs and the pressure gradient over WI relaxes. The 925mb temps only top out around -2 to 0C Friday, so we will be cooler tomorrow than today, with highs in the lower 40s. Winds will be much less gusty tomorrow as high pressure moves in.
Cold advection will also kick in overnight tonight, which will usher in some cooler temperatures tomorrow.
Moving toward the weekend, upper level ridging is expected to begin building in across interior NorCal.
253 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 A cold front continues to cross the area thru the evening. A weak wave of low pressure rides along the front and affect the weather Friday.
1010 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 The cold front currently extends from north Alabama across north Mississippi and into southern Arkansas. ARS Rain chances are expected to gradually return to the Mid-South today as a cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Much cooler air will return behind this front with temperatures falling back into the 40s tonight and highs on Friday struggling to reach 60 degrees.
Rain showers will remain over much of the Mid-South tonight through Friday morning behind the cold front. Temperatures will be much cooler tonight with lows Friday morning in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
1144 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 (Today and tonight) High temperatures will be as much as 20-30 degrees cooler than yesterday for areas generally south of I-40, and 10-20 degrees cooler across the north. The broad upper trough, which is draped across the western CONUS, progresses eastward while the southern stream trough decelerates and becomes out of phase with the northern stream.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler than the past few days, remaining right around the seasonal averages. A weak area of high pressure will quickly move into the region today, allowing for near seasonable temperatures and dry conditions to remain through Friday.
1239 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 Any remaining areas of rain will end as a cold front exits the region this afternoon. A wave of low pressure will return precipitation chances late tonight and Friday, mainly south of Interstate 68. Dry conditions and cooler temperatures are then expected through the weekend under high pressure. The latest mesoanalysis shows a cold front extending across northern WV through southern OH. This evening through a majority of early Friday morning will stay dry and quiet in the wake of the cold front. With weak cold advection aloft temperatures overnight will likely stay above average, in the low 40s to upper 30s. Increase subsidence in the mid-lvls will diminish any remaining precipitation in the ridges of West Virginia by 3pm.
The upper level low pressure system that has been impacting our weather will be near the Ontario/Quebec border slowly moving eastward, keeping the ILN CWA under zonal mid level flow. Thick cloud cover helps prevent temperatures from falling too much and overnight lows drop to the low 40s. Winds decrease by Friday night as the high creeps ever closer. High temperatures on Friday reach the upper 50s while Friday overnight lows fall into the low 30s thanks to clear skies promoting plenty of radiational cooling.
* Turning cooler for the end of the week, with early morning lows in the 30s and afternoon highs primarily in the 40s to around 50. Low pressure shifting eastward across southern Ontario this afternoon continues to support some gusty westerly winds along its southern periphery. Winds will then abate this evening before turning west-northwesterly tonight following another cold frontal passage. After early morning lows in the 30s, the cooler airmass shifting overhead behind this cold front will result in high temperatures Friday afternoon remaining in the mid to upper 40s north of I-80, and only to around 50 to the south. Light winds and mainly clear skies under this high will support a rather chilly night, with lows expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s in most areas outside the city.
A weak surface wave is expected to move northeast along the cold front across the Gulf Coast/deep south tonight. While there is increasing mid/upper level ascent (particularly due to some jet streak support), the low levels are very dry and the aforementioned strong low/mid level frontogenesis is centered a bit too far southeast for our southern counties. In fact, NWP soundings show dry air within the lowest 10 kft AGL in/around Farmington tonight, with max dewpoint depressions in that layer approaching 40C. Have therefor confined rain chances (20-40%) to far southern sections of the area, with the highest chances in/around Reynolds/Iron/Madison counties between 8PM and midnight.
1124 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 (Today through Friday night) Model agreement continues to see the Panhandles cool down behind the cold frontal passage yesterday afternoon. Look for temperatures temperatures to drop into the mid 30s to low 40s by the early morning hours with a couple of our northern locations near freezing. As we get further into the morning, models are still expecting a lee-side trough to pass across the Panhandles and bring in some moisture into the area. Heading into Friday, conditions look to stay cool as models expected the trough that developed over the inter-mountain west to finally pass through the Panhandles. While initial looks expect this trough to mainly be a dry passage for the area, there are a few models that are showing enough moisture to potentially create some showers off the western mountain of New Mexico.
1104 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 Near normal temperatures and a lack of precipitation are expected to characterize the weekend as an upper trough across the Great Lakes shifts gradually east. -------------------------- [Discussion] -------------------------- After a (near) record setting day of warmth, cooler air from the north is pouring across the Prairie State behind a cold front.
A cold front will drop south Friday night with rain and snow showers in central NY. Clearing has worked into NEPA and south central NY ahead of the cold front from the Adirondacks to the Poconos. Qpf is light and so will snowfall as temperatures remain above freezing. Friday clouds increase ahead of a cold front that drops southeast Friday night and a system passing across the mid Atlantic states. Some snow accumulations under half an inch are possible across the higher terrain. Low temperatures will be mostly in the low and mid 30s. A cold front with little moisture associated with it will be dropping south out of Canada and working its way into the northern part of our area Friday night.
Recent model trends show the trough weakening as it crosses the region, though it will still be strong enough to cause some precipitation.
Outside of diminishing rain, a seasonally cooler and cloudy day is anticipated on Friday. This Evening/Tonight Currently this afternoon, a strong 170+ kt upper jet is centered over Michigan with a cold front moving in from the northwest.
(This evening through Friday) Colder than normal temperatures will stick around through the overnight period tonight and into Friday as well, as cool northerly flow remains in place across the area in the wake of the past cold front. The breezy northerly winds will also help it feel a little cooler through Friday, with winds ranging from 10 to 15 mph with some gusts as high as 25 mph.
1120 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 Key Message: * Gusty westerly winds today up to 35 mph north of I-80 with sporadic gusts up to 40 mph A temporarily tight pressure gradient between high pressure nosing east from the Plains and low pressure near Lake Superior will be the primary mechanism for today's brisk westerly winds. Early morning lows will be in the low-mid 30s outside of Chicago and upper 30s in the city. Despite mostly sunny skies, aside perhaps for a few-scattered strato-Cu, Friday's cooler air mass will result in highs in the mid 40s to around 50F north of I-80 and upper 40s-low 50s (locally mid 50s) south of I-80.
Not expecting the fog/low stratus to make a return tonight as upper-level ridge will give way to troughing across the Pac NW as a weak system looks to move towards the area overnight. Despite the increase in cloud cover, SW flow aloft will usher in warmer temperatures for much of the area tomorrow with mid to upper 40s expected for daytime highs in the lower valleys.
We're about 23 to 28 degrees cooler today than yesterday as the cold front pushed through yesterday evening. Lows tonight are expected to dip into the mid 30s to around 40 with the warmer values where the clouds clear the latest in the southeast. Friday should be mostly sunny across the area as the upper level wave shifts east and low level high pressure is over the area.