Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As a result, Small Craft Advisories have been canceled for all Florida Keys coastal waters except for the Straits of Florida west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge where winds near 20 knots and seas of 5 to 7 feet persist. An area of high pressure on the Eastern Seaboard will continue to control our sensible weather in short term.
Winds will remain light with the surface ridging tonight. 08 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Wednesday) A persistent ridge remains in place over the eastern CONUS where there's a notable lack of rainfall. Flow transitions from easterly in the lower levels to northerly aloft and tropospheric moisture remains far too low for any kind of diurnal convection. The ridge will hardly shift eastward through tomorrow, but will maintain its grasp over the Southeast as soil conditions continue to deteriorate. All along the East Coast, smoke from the Canadian wildfires is rotating southwest around the periphery of the ridge and producing a slight haze over Central Alabama, but otherwise, skies are sunny. High clouds will begin to move in from the west tomorrow afternoon ahead of a trough over the central CONUS.
246 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 High pressure maintains control for the next 2 days with above normal daytime temperatures.
Quiet weather is expected this week as high pressure builds over the Southwest. A handful of areas above 6000s feet will fall below freezing overnight/early in the morning. We'll continue to see a warming trend through the end of the week with a building ridge over the Southwest, and cold low temperatures will remain with the drier air in place.
1034 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Most recent upper air analysis shows the upper trough axis right over the WY/SD border this afternoon, with upper ridge over the New England region. Unsettled weather generally continues for this afternoon into tonight as the main trough swings through the region, with showers increasing as the day goes on. Northwest flow aloft develops over the region Wednesday, and we can expect a cooler but sunny day with mostly dry conditions.
221 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 High pressure allows early morning river valley fog, but maintains dry weather through tonight, as it drifts east.
1210 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 High pressure continues to slide off to our east with return southerly flow becoming more settled over Middle Tennessee. A cold front stretched across the Upper Midwest and Great Plains is edging its way toward the mid state and will begin impacting our weather the day after tomorrow. (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Another warmer than normal afternoon is unfolding. We'll see calm and cool conditions overnight with a little patchy fog, but probably less than what occurred last night due to slightly warmer temperatures. We may feel this overnight Wednesday night when low temperatures will remain a few degrees warmer than they've been lately.
254 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Today will be warmer as we get stronger winds with a more westerly component creating better downsloping. The cold front behind these winds will bring a few rain showers to the region.
357 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The main weather story continues to be a cold frontal passage which, along with bringing rain and a few storms to the Quad State region, will significantly lower temperatures for the end of the week and weekend. A high pressure ridge, which has kept conditions dry over the Quad State the last few days, has now shifted to the Atlantic Coast. The broadened trough out west is advancing into the Plains with a trough axis stretching from Manitoba to Colorado.
1145 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The axis of the long wave trough over the forecast area this morning had shifted east of the Continental Divide by midday. However, though the trough axis had moved east, a secondary short wave moving down the backside of the main trough continued to provide lift which, when combined with lingering moisture, resulted in scattered showers over the central and northern mountains.
A slow moving cold front, that could stall along central Oklahoma, will be another area for developing thunderstorms during the early afternoon. With a lack of convection on Tuesday, the overall kinematic and thermodynamic profiles will foster severe weather for the stronger thunderstorms south of the cold front and east of the dryline.
141 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Persistent high pressure will allow dry weather through Wednesday.
408 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 High pressure with drier air will be in place across the region for the rest of the week, with rain chances remaining on the low side save for a few showers moving over interior zones from the east.
313 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 High pressure prevails through much of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal.
208 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 *** Radar is Under Mandatory Maintenance *** NW flow aloft will prevail the next few days until an upper ridge moves into the area over the weekend. A wave in the NW flow aloft will bring a cold front through NE Montana between 10 am and 1 pm today.
330 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Key Messages -Cooler and breezy today.
248 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Upper trough moves through today but no precipitation is expected.
(Today and tonight) The region will continue to be situated between an upper level ridge to our west and an upper level low across the western Atlantic. As the ridge axis moves east over the region this afternoon and into tonight, we could see a small increase in high level clouds while at the surface, high pressure will keep a steady supply of northeast flow in place. A decrease in the concentration is possible this afternoon as conditions warm and mix, but skies will still likely appear quite hazy and the lower air quality we've seen the last 36 hours could stick around for at least another day. High temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s while temperatures tonight drop into the low to mid 60s.
125 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 High pressure prevails through much of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal.
225 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The axis of yesterday's trough continues to trek east across the Northern Plains this morning, with a final band of energy trailing in on the western side into western WY this morning.
(Today) High pressure layered from the NE region into the middle/southern Atlantic states, coupled with an upper ridge axis from the central Gulf states into the NE/middle Atlantic Basins, will continue to be the dominant wx features for at least one more day.
920 PM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023 A large area of high pressure over the northeastern Pacific will expand over the western states this week and bring hot, dry weather to Southern California. It's biggest impact will be the warmer weather west of the mountains where highs will be in the 80s and 90s.
112 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 High pressure gradually exits east on Wednesday as a low pressure system enters from the west.
333 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Persistent high pressure will allow dry weather and warm temperatures through tonight.
(Today and tonight) Following a lull in active weather yesterday afternoon and overnight, today looks to be climax for Fall severe storms ahead of a slow-moving cold front. As the base of a positively- tilted trough reaches our area later this afternoon, a kissing upper jet with 200 mb winds peaking from 120-130 knots will overspread the region within deep SW flow. This trough will keep pressure falls focused in New Mexico all day, so the dryline should make little/no progress into our western counties today leaving the whole of the CWA to bask in a muggy moist sector with light southerly winds. The highest PoPs remain focused off the Caprock where storms are most likely to grow upscale as they encounter even richer PWATs of nearly 2".
217 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Today begins a much needed period of relief from clouds, cooler temps and rain as high pressure will quickly build over the region today. Afternoon high temps today will remain on the cooler side with cloud cover lingering for the first half of the day but will trend upwards 3-6 degrees each day between now and the start of the weekend.
A warming and drying trend will continue to take place through Thursday as offshore flow combines with high pressure aloft.
A warming and drying trend continues for the remainder of the week as high pressure builds over the Southwest. Multiple locations in the High Country are forecast to once again dip to or below the freezing mark this morning with dew points in the mid,upper 20s to low 30s. Geopotential heights begin to increase across Arizona today as a low pressure trough, currently positioned over much of the state, lifts towards the east-northeast. A high pressure ridge will then move in from the west, eventually amplifying over much of the western half of the country through the weekend.
* Cooler air filtering into the region tonight through the rest of the short term period. The upper trough will remain over the Northern Plains with cooler, more seasonable highs forecast today and Thursday.
528 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The trough will continue to advance today, and a secondary, weaker wave will brush our northern mountains early in the period. Flow aloft will be turning northwesterly and decreasing as the trough exits. Temperatures are forecast a few degrees cooler across the plains and a few degrees warmer across the high country, a bit cooler than normal everywhere.
West to northwest winds with gusts 25-30kts spread across most of north- central MT by late this morning, turning mostly to the northwest late this afternoon as a weather disturbance and cold front moves SE across the area. Otherwise, most locations across North Central Montana can see breezy conditions this morning, becoming calmer later this evening after a cold front moves through tonight.
638 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 High pressure maintains control for the next 2 days with above normal daytime temperatures.
637 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Dry high pressure and upper ridging remain firmly in place through Thursday.
Key Message in the near term will be the chance for non severe thunderstorms east and south of the Dodge City area and cooler temperatures. As of 07z Wednesday a cold front was located from south central Kansas into northwest Oklahoma. Today the cold front will briefly stall out across northwest Kansas as some 850mb to 700mb moisture and warm air advection develops north of this boundary across south central Kansas. This will be occurring ahead of another upper level trough which will be approaching western Kansas during the day. The higher probabilities will be along the Oklahoma border today. guidance has been very consistent with the cooler temperatures returning with highs only in the 70s Today and Thursday.
651 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 High pressure prevails through much of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal.
High pressure begins to shift east with increasing high clouds tonight into Thursday morning. Discussion: Upper-level trough axis will be centered over the area today with subsidence continuing to result in a clear sky and warm temperatures. High clouds increase tonight as ridging begins to shift east and southwest flow aloft results in weak isentropic lift as we head into Thursday morning.
A slow moving cold front, that could stall along central Oklahoma, will be another area for developing thunderstorms during the early afternoon.
Key Messages: - There is a minor threat for precipitation Thursday night in association with a Canadian cold front.
(Today through Thursday) Another day of tranquil weather expected today as the eastern half of the country is still under the combined influence of a ridge at the mid-levels and high pressure at the surface. The dome of warm, dry air that has stagnated over the Southeast for the past several days has begun to break down as the ridge axis moves off of the Eastern Seaboard. High and low temperatures for today and tomorrow remain a largely persistence forecast, with highs in the low-to-mid-80s, and lows near 60 (about 6-8 degrees above average for early October).
Otherwise, most locations across North Central Montana can see breezy conditions this morning, becoming calmer later this evening after a cold front moves through tonight.
508 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Upper trough moves through today but no precipitation is expected.
315 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Current surface analysis shows cold front now east of the area, from the eastern Dakotas to eastern NE and central KS, with high pressure to the west of the region. Upper level analysis shows trough moving across the Plains, with shower activity well east of the region now. A cooler wx pattern will prevail through the end of the week, with a clipper system crossing the region Thursday bringing the coldest air of the season so far. Some snowflakes could mix in across the higher Black Hills later tonight if any showers reach that area. A light dusting of snow accumulation is possible over the higher Black Hills if pcpn develops.
Latest surface map shows a cold front stretching from NW MN southwest to eastern SoDak. This cold front will move through the cwa Thursday bringing rain and perhaps a few non severe thunderstorms. The increased cloud cover will keep our temperatures a bit cooler.
1038 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Dry high pressure and upper ridging remain firmly in place through Thursday.
654 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 (Today through Thursday Night ) Mid and high level moisture contd to incrs acrs the FA overnight assocd with an upper lvl trof to our west. Low lvl moisture return was also evident, mainly to the south of AR, where a warm front was situated. Sfc dewpoints north of this bndry were in the lower and mid 60s, with upper 60s/lower 70s common in the warm sector. Model solutions cont to show a more progressive trend with the upper trof/CDFNT acrs AR Thu ngt.
This broad cluster of convection is on the east side of a cut-off mid to upper level low, and within a relative maximum of CIMSS low-level vorticity analyses. High pressure centered east of the Delmarva will maintain moderate breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys this afternoon. Breezes will diminish gradually through Thursday as the high shifts east into the western North Atlantic.
646 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Dry high pressure and upper ridging remain firmly in place through Thursday.
(Today through Tonight) As of early this morning, latest observation stations were showing the stalled cold frontal boundary sitting just north of Amarillo with places like Miami and Hereford still ahead of the boundary.
1002 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 High pressure prevails through much of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal.
619 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Rain chances will increase this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front that is slated to arrive Thursday night.
600 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 (Today) High pressure layered from the NE region into the middle/southern Atlantic states, coupled with an upper ridge axis from the central Gulf states into the NE/middle Atlantic Basins, will continue to be the dominant wx features for at least one more day.
For today, Much of west central Texas will be in the warm sector ahead of a cold front to the north and a dryline to the west over the Trans Pecos. One more very warm and humid day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and then the initial cold front will be through most of the area by Thursday morning.
654 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 (Today through Tonight) As of early this morning, latest observation stations were showing the stalled cold frontal boundary sitting just north of Amarillo with places like Miami and Hereford still ahead of the boundary.
628 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Persistent high pressure will allow dry weather and warm temperatures through tonight.
In any case, Brookings' low is anticipated in the lower 60's, which will be one of the warmer spots in the region tonight. Heading towards the end of the week, the thermal trough will move back inland and temperatures will trend even warmer.
330 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The trough will continue to advance today, and a secondary, weaker wave will brush our northern mountains early in the period. Flow aloft will be turning northwesterly and decreasing as the trough exits. Temperatures are forecast a few degrees cooler across the plains and a few degrees warmer across the high country, a bit cooler than normal everywhere.
Quieter and warmer weather is expected today under decreasing cloud cover as high pressure begins settles into the region. AN exiting low pressure trough will allow for decreasing cloud cover today along with dry conditions across northern and central Nevada. Highs will be in the 60s with lows tonight a bit warmer but some pockets of lower 30s will remain in favorable valley locations. High pressure will bring dry and warmer weather to the area for Thursday. Temperatures will continue to rise with highs reaching the lower 70s in many lower valleys. Lows Thursday night should be above freezing for most valleys.
1043 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Dry and seasonably warm weather through most of the day Thursday will give way to much cooler temperature and periods of rain through the weekend as a potent upper low crosses north of the region. Seasonably cool weather is favored to continue thereafter under persistent troughing. The initiation of southerly flow aloft ahead of an incoming potent upper trough will promote weak moist advection. This precipitation will be primarily driven by upper-dynamics as the surface cold front will remain farther displaced west.
Upper level ridge offshore today and tonight will move east Thursday.
A low pressure system will move away from the region this morning, leaving a cool and stable airmass in its wake. High pressure will build across the region beginning Thursday, bringing a warming and drying trend through the remainder of the week.
806 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 High pressure maintains control for the next 2 days with above normal daytime temperatures.
525 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Current surface analysis shows cold front now east of the area, from the eastern Dakotas to eastern NE and central KS, with high pressure to the west of the region. Upper level analysis shows trough moving across the Plains, with shower activity well east of the region now. A cooler wx pattern will prevail through the end of the week, with a clipper system crossing the region Thursday bringing the coldest air of the season so far. Some snowflakes could mix in across the higher Black Hills later tonight if any showers reach that area. A light dusting of snow accumulation is possible over the higher Black Hills if pcpn develops.
649 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 (Today and tonight) The region will continue to be situated between an upper level ridge to our west and an upper level low across the western Atlantic. As the ridge axis moves east over the region this afternoon and into tonight, we could see a small increase in high level clouds while at the surface, high pressure will keep a steady supply of northeast flow in place. A decrease in the concentration is possible this afternoon as conditions warm and mix, but skies will still likely appear quite hazy and the lower air quality we've seen the last 36 hours could stick around for at least another day. High temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s while temperatures tonight drop into the low to mid 60s.
Dry weather continues to dominate throughout the Tennessee Valley as high pressure lingers throughout the southeast and an upper level ridge works in from the southwest.
744 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Dry and seasonably warm weather is expected through most of Thursday under the influence of high pressure. A strong upper level low will bring cooler air and periods of rain to the region late Thursday night through the weekend. Previous Discussion: An elongated ridge along the East Coast will keep temperatures well above average today and weather conditions dry. The slow intrusion of high clouds amid moist advection ahead of the trough should mitigate nocturnal fog development tonight into Thursday morning, though a few valleys near the Laurel Highlands may still see patchy development. This precipitation will be primarily driven by upper-dynamics as the surface cold front will remain farther displaced west.
Otherwise, another dry and warm day is on tap for Middle Tennessee with highs in the low 80s on the Plateau and the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Temps will be near or slightly cooler than yesterday due to increasing cloud cover and falling heights aloft thanks to an approaching upper level trough. Tonight, cloud cover and low level moisture will increase as the upper trough pushes into the Tennessee Valley, and a few showers will likely reach our western counties around 12-13Z Thursday morning.
646 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 (Today and tonight) Following a lull in active weather yesterday afternoon and overnight, today looks to be climax for Fall severe storms ahead of a slow-moving cold front. As the base of a positively- tilted trough reaches our area later this afternoon, a kissing upper jet with 200 mb winds peaking from 120-130 knots will overspread the region within deep SW flow. This trough will keep pressure falls focused in New Mexico all day, so the dryline should make little/no progress into our western counties today leaving the whole of the CWA to bask in a muggy moist sector with light southerly winds. The highest PoPs remain focused off the Caprock where storms are most likely to grow upscale as they encounter even richer PWATs of nearly 2".
Current readings are in the lower 70s where rain is falling with a range of upper 70s and lower 80s everywhere else. /24/ (Thursday Night through Wednesday) While the deeper convection will have shifted SE of the region into S LA/Srn MS Thursday evening, the primary upper trough axis will still lag to the NW over portions of E TX into NW LA/Srn and ECntrl AR, beneath longwave troughing that will extend S over the Plains and MS Valley. The much advertised cold front that will usher in the coolest temps since early May for the upcoming weekend will be diffuse by Thursday evening over the Ozarks/Srn Plains, with a deepening Nrn flow setting up in wake of the H850 trough passage across E TX/N LA during the evening.
A warming and drying trend continues for the remainder of the week as high pressure builds over the Southwest. Sunny skies, warming temperatures, and modest northeast to east winds are the result of upper-level high pressure moving into the region. Multiple locations in the High Country are forecast to once again dip to or below the freezing mark this morning with dew points in the mid,upper 20s to low 30s. Geopotential heights begin to increase across Arizona today as a low pressure trough, currently positioned over much of the state, lifts towards the east-northeast. A high pressure ridge will then move in from the west, eventually amplifying over much of the western half of the country through the weekend.
A strong cold front will move southeast across our region late Thursday night. Much cooler air will arrive for the weekend, probably the coolest air since April. Widespread rainfall will occur ahead of the cold front. A broad 500 mb trough will move east, crossing the Mississippi Valley late in the day. A moist southwest low-level flow of 20 to 35 kt will shift eastward across the lower Ohio Valley through the day. The 500 mb trough axis and the precipitable water plume will weaken and move east of our area Thursday evening. The actual surface cold front will lag behind.
Benign weather persists through early tonight, with attention toward the ongoing area of showers upstream fixated within a lead zone of organized forced ascent featured along a slowly advancing cold frontal boundary tied to modest height falls.
A well-defined mid-upper trough is already starting to influence our area with deep subtropical moisture stream impinging on Indiana bringing an increase in cirrus cloud cover today. As the system's warm conveyor belt and moisture stream combine with forcing for ascent with the approaching trough, a band of rain is expected. This is where HREF mean has the highest precipitation total amounts, around one inch.