Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1233 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Upper-level ridge continues to sit tight, allowing for another quiet, but warm evening. Lows will continue to fall into the upper 70s, some even in the low 80s. Upper-level ridging is holding on strong across the region, with an Excessive Heat warning still in effect until 8PM tonight. The airmass that we're working with is unusually moist given the ridge overhead.
1231 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 (This evening through Saturday) H500 ridge will remain anchored across and just to the south of Arkansas through the period. Some southward shift in the ridge on Saturday could pave the way for some rain chances to enter the forecast. A cold front in position to the north will settle a bit closer to the state.
This is no longer the case! A positively, titled trough will be centered across the Four Corners today. Temperatures remain mild this morning in response to lee troughing with widespread 70s expected. With the trough to our west, enough synoptic ascent and mid-level moisture will be in place for scattered convective development. The trough only moves slight eastward on Saturday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be a touch cooler with almost everyone remaining in the 90s with some 80s even in the higher elevations.
Afternoon high temperatures look to be a degree or two cooler than seen yesterday, and along with dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the area east of Highway 75, heat index values from 105 to 110 are again expected.
An upper level ridge will slowly build in from the west today. This will allow a warmer and more stable airmass to begin to spread across the region.
Temperatures will be near or slightly warmer than yesterday. Since several rounds of thunderstorms are moving through during this pattern, there is some inherent uncertainty as one round influences the next, however probability is on the higher side for thunderstorms to move through Saturday night.
- More storms are possible late Friday into Saturday as cooler conditions enter the area. A subtle warm front is located just south of US-50 with another subtle boundary near the MO/IA border. The nocturnal LLJ has been gradually intensifying through the night feeding warmer and more moist air across SE NE, NE KS, and NW MO ahead of the storm system. Cooler air does work its way into the area overnight Friday into Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also anticipated as the cooler air moves in which might add a nice bonus to the heat relief.
(Today through Saturday) The strong upper level ridge will continue to build east today. The upper level ridge starts to flatten on Saturday as a trough pushes out of the Rockies.
Beyond this threat the afternoon and evening should be pretty quiet as showers and storms develop across the High Plains of Nebraska and southern SD. Sat-Sun: As the trough continues to push east, showers should remain south of I-90 for Saturday, where the best moisture and instability are located. Heating will be limited by the clouds and rain, so highs will be in the lower 80s for southeastern SD and northwestern IA, warmer as you head northwest.
Early morning surface analysis had a weak ridge nosing across our CWA from the east northeast that will help provide a light southerly flow that will maintain abnormally high low level moisture as surface dew points will continue in the mid to upper 70s. These temperatures will combine with the high humidity to result in heat index values of 110-115 at most locations. /22/ An intense high pressure system over the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast region will continue the pattern of dangerous and excessive heat across the south on Saturday, however will begin to weaken and propagate to the east as the influence of an upper trough moves across the Great Plains/Midwest. This weakening ridge is expected to be a catalyst for decreased temperatures over the next several days.
Discussion: A positively tilted longwave trough will track over the Great Plains into Iowa this weekend.
116 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 A quiet and warmer weather pattern evolves heading into the weekend. A weak westerly wave pushes through on Saturday, but this turns flow westerly and advects in drier air, so precipitation chances don't change much from Friday, with mainly an isolated shower/thunderstorm chance over the higher terrain and adjacent foothills. Highs Saturday mainly in the upper 80s, to the lower 90s.
1221 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Upper ridge centered over LA today with a trough over the Great Basin. The trough will move east crossing the Rockies and onto the plains Friday and Friday night flattening out the ridge that hangs along the Gulf.
A warm front leading the surge of much higher PWAT air (1. The highest POPs (around 80 percent) were painted near a line from KELM to KUNV and KCBE.
1217 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 (This evening through Friday) Temperatures will continue to trend down Friday as upper level high pressure, centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley, continues to weaken. High cloudiness will be on the increase Friday afternoon, as an upper trough approaches.
There might be one or two storms in/near the CWA through late this evening to monitor, but the higher likelihood is that dry conditions will prevail over most of the CWA tonight. Starting off Saturday morning, an upper trough will be exiting our region to the south and east while some weak upper ridging begins to build in.
* Temperatures will cool through Saturday with Saturday having the lowest temperatures of the forecast period.
Upper level ridge axis will stretch from southwest to northeast over the forecast area by this afternoon. This ridge is flattened just slightly for Sat and Sun as a low presses in from the north. The warming continues into Sun, where even Idaho Falls and Rexburg should get into the low 90s. For Sat, the flattened end of the upper level ridge does see some breezy conditions develop, mainly over the central Idaho mountain ridges and the Snake River plain.
Temperatures will be right around normal today, and a little warmer tomorrow. The period starts off with a s/w ridge building across the region, as a trof over southwest Canada starts digging toward the Northern Rockies. The ridging aloft should serve to keeps things mostly dry until the Tue-Wed time frame.
(Today through Saturday) Key Message : - Heat will continue over the region today into Saturday - Heat Advisory for the inland Coastal Bend this afternoon and again for Saturday afternoon including portions of the Brush Country The mid level high will be over Louisiana through the period as the ridge axis extends southwest into south Texas.
(Today and tonight) With the upper high drifting slowly to the south and east, mid-level flow will be more from the southwest today across western and central Oklahoma. It seems reasonable that the NBM has given values there in the lower 60s, so no heat advisory is planned for today.
This should allow for severe storms across the High Plains during the afternoon and evening where steep lapse rates and upper 60 dewpoints are expected. Further east across central and south-central Kansas lapse rates don't look nearly as good and surface dewpoints look to only be in the low to mid 60s. High PWAT values in the 90 to 95th percentile will be in place out ahead and just behind the cold front late this evening and tonight across central and south-central Kansas and on Saturday morning across eastern and southeast Kansas. Cooler temperatures are expected during the day Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
1040 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Upper-level analysis shows split flow over the western CONUS: a trough across much of the western US and ridging over the far NW. At the surface, high pressure rests over WY, creating light NW winds across our CWA. More showers/storms are expected Friday afternoon/evening as the main trough crosses our area. Upper ridging over the western CONUS will result in a warmer and drier weekend, although a stray shower/storm cannot be ruled out.
350 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 A large upper-level ridge remains centered to our west while a rather weak surface pattern persists with a nearly diffuse boundary over the north-central Florida peninsula.
Expect this to continue until the low level jet moves south of the forecast area. High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid and upper 80s north up to the lower 90s south. At the start of the period, the broad ridge of high pressure remains to our south over the Gulf of Mexico with a closed low over Ontario and a wave digging down into into the Central Great Plains. This set up keeps the ILN CWA under an area of enhanced westerly flow aloft on the northern periphery of the ridge. Again, the overall setup would suggest rounds of showers and storms, with MCS development and maintenance possible, however, a large enough nose of warm air in the lower levels may inhibit more robust storm formation.
1055 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Short Term (Today through Friday Night) As the ridge axis aloft slowly shifts east, a surface frontal boundary has stalled across northern MO and is extending southeastwards along the Mississippi River. Temperatures have stayed cooler than previously forecast across the parts of the area that received rain, and an outflow boundary also cooled temperatures slightly in the St.
Rain and thunderstorm chances increase along with slightly cooler temperatures this weekend. A resultant front will nudge into the area later tonight, bringing chances (30-40%) for showers and thunderstorms, with the higher chances remaining north of Springfield. The SPC Day 2 Outlook currently highlights this possibility, with the higher chances of severe weather northeast of the area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Saturday, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s and 90s (hottest over the eastern Ozarks).
1238 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) Mid-level ridging is shifting east away from the area, opening the door for additional Gulf moisture to influence the RGV.
Rain and thunderstorm chances increase along with slightly cooler temperatures this weekend. Areas in the most severe drought will be the hottest with areas outside of that staying a few degrees cooler. A front will edge into the area Friday evening and night and we could see some showers and thunderstorms develop, especially as the low level jet begins to increase however confidence remains low and precip chances less than 30 percent.
High pressure over the region will bring very warm, above normal temperatures and dry conditions to the state through the weekend. A warming trend along with dry conditions under a strengthening ridge of high pressure will finish out this week.
An approaching warm front will stall out as it pushes into Pennsylvania today and this weekend.
Perhaps the best chance of precipitation will occur on Saturday afternoon, as a weak back door cold front sags south into northern WI, and enhances convergence in far NE WI, leading to a chance of showers and storms. Smoke trends: lingering smoke in far eastern is expected to edge eastward this morning as the weak cold front tries to clear the region.
high pressure will strengthen across the region bringing a warming and drying trend through the upcoming weekend.
615 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 (Today through Saturday) The strong upper level ridge will continue to build east today. The upper level ridge starts to flatten on Saturday as a trough pushes out of the Rockies.
Water vapor imagery highlights a large anticyclone centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The Florida Keys are within the eastern flank of this ridge, nearly within the maximum in dry/subsiding air. CIMSS low-level vorticity analyses highlight a lengthy and weak area of troughiness across south-central Florida, corroborated by the kink in the flow noted on visibile satellite imagery.
Deep tropospheric instability will develop with lower 60s dewpoints pulling back west into southeast Colorado where mid level temperatures will be fairly cool in close proximity to the mid level trough axis. All the mentioned ingredients will favor yet another substantial mesoscale convective system (MCS), which will first start off as a few scattered supercell storms in vicinity of the low level trough axis over southeast Colorado into east central Colorado. The ridge will not be all that amplified with some westerly momentum remaining across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
High pressure was centered just off the California coast this morning with a weak trough heading eastward. The flow around this high will be primarily from the northwest to north delivering an air mass with a history of deep dry heating over the Great Basin. The trough exits to the east. High pressure slowly makes it's way from west to east across Arizona. High pressure systems approaching from the southeast are typically associate with increasing moisture and better monsoon potential across Arizona. However, when high pressure approaches from the west, as we will be seeing over the coming days, a dry and Great Basin heated air mass will be pushed across Arizona. Winds look to shift to southwesterly and strengthen on the 4th of July as high pressure heads to the east.
414 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 The midlevel trough continues to drift eastward across the state this morning. Latest satellite and radar trends note the low trying to wrap up a bit more, with shower activity redeveloping near the center of the low currently roughly in southwestern Natrona County. Since the trough axis will be to the east of western and central WY today, shower activity will not have the energy of the previous few days, so the overall severe threat will be much lower, and will be restricted to central WY areas closer to the trough, so most of the Bighorn Basin and areas west of the divide should remain dry. Models still build the California ridge northeast into the northern Rockies for Saturday, bringing warmer temperatures and more stable atmosphere.
609 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 (Today and tonight) The cooling trend will continue today as the high aloft shifts east and a trough approaches our area from the west.
Confidence is mounting in scattered storms developing over far eastern NM this afternoon along a Theta-E ridge within steady upslope flow. Insignificant capping today combined with the degree of forcing accompanying the upper trough (cited in the prior discussion) favors constructive outflows / upscale growth with time.
955 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Made a few modifications to PoPs for today/tonight, per the latest hi-res short-term guidance suggesting rain chances may be extending themselves a bit further north and east over the CWA by late this afternoon through late this evening, while upper level low pressure energy is over South Dakota/Nebraska, with what can only be loosely defined as a "deformation zone" over the northern half of forecast zones today/tonight. Temperatures will be right around normal today, and a little warmer tomorrow. The period starts off with a s/w ridge building across the region, as a trof over southwest Canada starts digging toward the Northern Rockies. The ridging aloft should serve to keeps things mostly dry until the Tue-Wed time frame.
An upper level ridge will continue to build over the weekend, bringing much above normal temperatures and overall drier conditions to the area.
A large upper-level ridge remains centered to our west while a rather weak surface pattern persists with a nearly diffuse boundary over the north-central Florida peninsula.
(Today and tonight) The cooling trend will continue today as the high aloft shifts east and a trough approaches our area from the west.
618 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 (Today through Saturday) Mid-level ridging will remain parked over Louisiana through the period. Warm and humid tonight with overnight lows in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Convection should begin increasing in coverage & intensity once again after 18z, initially over the higher terrain before spreading across the eastern plains after 21z as a cold front sweeps across the region. Will maintain the inherited Flash Flood Watch for a bit longer, but generally thinking the overall threat may be a bit limited as weaker shear and thunderstorms becoming undercut by the cold front will likely limit the longevity of heavier cores needed for a more substantial threat. Most areas will be dry for Saturday as upper-level ridging builds into the western US for a short time, though some showers could linger over the western NE Panhandle into far southeast Wyoming as the GFS/ECMWF both suggest a vigorous mid-level short wave skimming our eastern zones late in the morning into the early afternoon hours on Saturday.
A Heat Advisory is out for the high foothills of the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains. A high pressure ridge is currently over the Pacific Ocean and moving towards us, with it expected to move across Central California over the weekend. This ridge has steadily been moving towards us over the past week, and has brought with it an increase in temperatures. Later today through the weekend, the ridge will move across the state, bringing with it the first heatwave of the year.
620 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 (Today through Saturday) Key Message : - Heat will continue over the region today into Saturday - Heat Advisory for the inland Coastal Bend this afternoon and again for Saturday afternoon including portions of the Brush Country The mid level high will be over Louisiana through the period as the ridge axis extends southwest into south Texas.
Since several rounds of thunderstorms are moving through during this pattern, there is some inherent uncertainty as one round influences the next, however probability is on the higher side for thunderstorms to move through Saturday night.
605 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 (Today and tonight) With the upper high drifting slowly to the south and east, mid-level flow will be more from the southwest today across western and central Oklahoma. It seems reasonable that the NBM has given values there in the lower 60s, so no heat advisory is planned for today.
325 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 The midlevel trough continues to drift eastward across the state this morning. Latest satellite and radar trends note the low trying to wrap up a bit more, with shower activity redeveloping near the center of the low currently roughly in southwestern Natrona County. Since the trough axis will be to the east of western and central WY today, shower activity will not have the energy of the previous few days, so the overall severe threat will be much lower, and will be restricted to central WY areas closer to the trough, so most of the Bighorn Basin and areas west of the divide should remain dry. Models still build the California ridge northeast into the northern Rockies for Saturday, bringing warmer temperatures and more stable atmosphere.
AMS continues to heat up over the weekend as ridge axis moves through and 850 mb temps climb into the upper 20s Deg C.
(Today through Saturday) Mid-level ridging will remain parked over Louisiana through the period. Warm and humid tonight with overnight lows in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
353 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 The mid level trough axis will move across the area this afternoon into early evening. Models have been pretty consistent in showing a line of storms developing by early afternoon along the trough axis, with only isolated storms for a few hours behind that as the atmosphere dries. With cooler temperatures today, the severe threat will be lower. The upper level trough that brought the showers and thunderstorms the past couple of days will be east of Colorado Saturday with a northwest flow aloft. Drier and warmer air will move into the area. Best chance for weak convection will be over the eastern plains, closer to the exiting trough and also over the higher terrain.
47 (Today through Saturday Night) With high pressure (surface and aloft) still in charge, not expecting much weather changes in the short term period.
We are experiencing tranquil weather early in the near term under weak high pressure wedged between convective systems.
Ridge of high pressure is building across the southwestern U. Our region is on the northern edge of the ridge and we still have quite a bit of moisture around from the last system. As a result, we're not quite stable enough to cap thunderstorm development and are seeing a few weak storms developing mainly along the higher ridges. As these storms try to move off the ridges, they quickly dissipate.
1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 (Today and tonight) With the upper high drifting slowly to the south and east, mid-level flow will be more from the southwest today across western and central Oklahoma. It seems reasonable that the NBM has given values there in the lower 60s, so no heat advisory is planned for today.
Above normal temperatures will persist this weekend with strong ridging centered to our east.
/22 (Now through Saturday) Ridging aloft continues to persist over the region today with this feature looking to be directly overhead on Saturday. At the surface, high pressure gradually tracks east across the northern Gulf today and into the western Atlantic by Saturday. This combined with high instability may allow for a few storms to develop during the afternoon, however, with the ridge directly overhead, subsidence should help to keep convective coverage isolated at best so only have slight chance PoPs for the area. Low temps continue to range in the low to mid 70s.
The upper ridge that has been anchored over the region for the last several days will shift south and east throughout the day today which will allow for temperatures to be a degree or two cooler than yesterday, but highs are still expected to approach 100 degrees across a large portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 (Today through Saturday) Key Message : - Heat will continue over the region today into Saturday - Heat Advisory for the inland Coastal Bend this afternoon and again for Saturday afternoon including portions of the Brush Country The mid level high will be over Louisiana through the period as the ridge axis extends southwest into south Texas.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) Upper ridge centered over LA/MS this morning with a trough extending from WY southward across AZ. This trough will move over the Rockies today and onto the plains tonight flattening out the ridge as it moves east Saturday. Temperatures tonight should fall into the low to mid 70s with a few 60s before warming into the 90s Saturday. A couple degrees cooler Saturday night.
Seasonably warm conditions and light west/northwest winds are expected for today as high pressure begins to build into the southwest. Dry conditions are also expected, with only some afternoon clouds building over the higher terrain.
This is as a result of isolated convection developing on the eastern periphery of high pressure aloft where a very weak boundary resides. This currently looks like an uphill battle for deep convection though as the further west it tries to develop, the more it'll encounter suppression from strong high pressure aloft over the forecast area. Strong high pressure aloft will remain centered over the region and in control of our weather heading into the weekend. Current the best chance for such activity will be across eastern portions of the CWA, which lies on the eastern periphery of high pressure aloft. Temperatures will begin to cool down over the next couple of days as this ridge weakens over the Gulf of Mexico.
Short Term (Today through Saturday Night) 19Z upper air analysis show a positively tilted trough at the 250 mb level, with favorable positioning for divergence aloft across the Eastern Rockies. Ridging is currently present across Eastern Kansas, which is keeping the area dry for now. A surface boundary is strung across the state, with hotter and drier conditions to the south, and cooler and more humid conditions to the north. With lots of upper-level divergence further to the west, a low pressure will likely emerge from the lee troughing, with weak surface fronts attached. Saturday, the upper-level trough becomes more centered on Kansas, and the storm chances go from widespread to spotty with the loss of better forcing.