Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We begin to feel the effect of a deep upper ridge on Thursday which is centered well west of our region or across the Foothills of the Southern Rockies but the ridge axis has far eastward reaching effects into the Middle Red River Valley. The suppressing nature of this ridge axis along with returning southerly dewpoints will result in higher afternoon relative humidity than what we have been spoiled in seeing the last couple days.
Temperatures are expected to be hot once again today as the Northern Rockies remains under a ridge of high pressure. An excessive heat warning remains in effect for the Lower Hells Canyon and Salmon River Region of Idaho. As the ridge flattens today, westerly winds begin to increase this afternoon.
Discussion: A trough axis extending from northeastern CONUS into portions of the southeast has allowed for scattered to broken low-level clouds among afternoon mixing, all while weak northerly flow advects cooler and drier air into the region in a post frontal air-mass. Below normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected to continue into Thursday as more amplified troughing digs into the Great Lakes region and restricts any H5 height rises. Discussion: We start the period with an upper trough over the Eastern US and an upper ridge building over the central states.
Dry and cooler today, with slightly below normal temps and very pleasant humidity values for August. We are now on the backside of the cold front with drier and cooler air filtering into the region.
252 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: A cold front is currently making its way across the region which will bring highs this afternoon back down to normal.
The lee trough will continue today. Lows tonight will be warmer as the southerly winds continue through the overnight. Really, it will still be quite warm to hot with a gradient of highs from the "cooler" readings in the north to still hot temperatures near the Oklahoma border. A 595-600 dm ridge will sit itself firmly across the greater region. The EC still shows the dominating ridging across the greater region. In fact, this ridge might sit directly on top of us for much of the business week. South winds at 15 kts will subside around sunset and then shift to the north and northeast at 15-20 kts by 11-15z as a cold front passes.
* Much warmer today with highs in the 90s for all areas.
An associated weak cold front will approach northern Oklahoma overnight. Otherwise, a mainly clear sky is expected with warmer overnight lows.
Dry, cooler air has filtered in bringing a reprieve from the recent heat. /SW/ Today through tonight: An upper level trough is helping to maintain a more comfortable, less humid airmass over the forecast area in the near term. /EC/ Thursday through this weekend: Temperatures will start to rise once again as the more comfortable airmass (which gave us some well needed relief from the heat) will start to get replaced by a strengthening ridge located across the southern Great Plains. The ridge will gradually make its way eastward throughout the weekend, keeping us mainly dry and hot.
Low-level thicknesses increase a bit more tomorrow compared to today, so expect highs to top out in the low to mid 80s.
Temperatures will be hot once again today as an upper level ridge axis remains overhead, with highs expected to reach or exceed daily record values at many locations across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Smoke mainly from fires in central Oregon will continue to rotate around the ridge and may increase across eastern Oregon and west-central Idaho this afternoon and evening. On Thursday, the upper ridge will shift east as an upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and phases with an upper low off the coast of California.
1246 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 An airmass consisting of much cooler and drier air moved into the region overnight resulting in a breath of fresh air for all of us.
1232 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Upper level ridging will allow for dry weather to continue for the coming days. As the ridge intensifies, heat and humidity will return and heat headlines are likely to make their return this weekend.
(This evening through Thursday night) The upper level trough that brought most recent cold front to the region has slowed its eastward progression. As another stronger trough dives south out of Canada across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Thursday, it'll pickup and absorb the trough currently located over the SE CONUS.
300 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Key Messages: * A cold front will cross the local area tonight bringing seasonably cool temperatures and lower dewpoints to the region for Thursday. which are associated with a rapidly approaching cold front expected to cross the local area late tonight. Along with the cooler temperatures will be lower dewpoints, which are expected to run generally in the lower to middle 50s Thursday afternoon.
348 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 An upper level disturbance will traverse the northern plains tonight, helping to push a cold front through southwestern Kansas Thursday morning. This will result in slightly cooler readings across southwestern Kansas Thursday afternoon compared to today.
Surface cold front is still expected to sink south across WI this evening and overnight, bringing with it chances for showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the low 80s, with mostly sunny skies. Clouds increase tonight, with showers and thunderstorms moving into the area late this evening with a cold front. Winds will shift to the northwest early Thursday, with a cooler airmass building into the region. Rain will push east Thursday morning, but some additional showers will be possible Thursday afternoon as the core of the upper level trough swings through the area. Expect highs on Thursday to be in the low to mid 70s.
Temperatures lean above normal again today with forecasted high temperatures ranging from 96-105 for the lower deserts.
Winds will slowly become more southerly through the morning hours as it continues to slide southeast with the ever expanding H500 ridge over the western CONUS.
1217 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 (Today and tonight) The return to hotter temperatures begins today, as southerly surface winds resume and the 850mb thermal ridge strengthens. Temperatures tonight will be warmer than the previous night, with clear skies and southeast to south winds.
Early this morning an upper level trough was located across west central Canada, embedded within the northern stream jet. A filling H5 trough was lifting northeast across New England. A broad H5 ridge was located along the Continental Divide, northwest into southern WA.
Will continue to watch the progression of the cold front as it tracks southeast across the region through the day, with winds gradually switching to the north/northwest. At the surface, warm southerly flow will be in place this morning before a cold front slides across the area during the late morning and afternoon hours. High pressure moves in behind the front and will be the dominant feature over the area tonight and Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s. Thursday afternoon a strong ridge starts to build into the region. This ridge stays around for the whole period.
344 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 A cold front has pushed through the region bringing in strong post frontal winds across the state. A strong pressure gradient near the surface and pressure rises behind the cold front continues to also support the strong winds. High temperatures tomorrow will be slightly warmer across the west a an upper level ridge builds across the Northern Rockies.
a backdoor cold front moves in to the area late this evening with winds from the north-northeast at speeds of 5 to 10 mph, maybe closer to 15 mph in spots. high pressure slides southeast, allowing surface winds to veer to the east and southeast across the area during the day. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 85 to 90 degree range with low temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.
(Today and tonight) The return to hotter temperatures begins today, as southerly surface winds resume and the 850mb thermal ridge strengthens. Temperatures tonight will be warmer than the previous night, with clear skies and southeast to south winds. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Excessive heat will be firmed entrenched across West Central Texas through the weekend, as the upper level high re-establishes itself over the Plains.
1208 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 (Today and tonight) The cooler weather has made its grand exit after a brief appearance over the weekend. The upper level ridge we have all grown to dislike will begin to rebuild over the western CONUS today with increased thickness values noted over the region. 850 mb temperatures ranging from 28C to 34C indicate highs today in the low triple digits for most of the CWA, a model blend of CONSMOS and the previous forecast was used to increase temperatures over the NBM. No precipitation is expected over the short term as monsoonal moisture remains to our west with the rebuilding ridge.
317 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Tonight and Thursday: Recent frontal passage and building high pressure will bring light winds and mostly clear skies for the evening. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 60s north, upper 60s south. For Thursday, a ridge currently located in the Southern Plains will continue to strengthen and begin moving eastward, bringing additional dry air and heat back to the region. An 'Elevated' threat for fire danger will continue across the southern half of the area and a 'Limited' for the northern half due to the low humidity.
(Tonight) High pressure situated to the north and west of the forecast area will continue to dominate the sensible weather pattern tonight. As a result, temperatures drop down once again into the low to mid 60s. There may even be a few spots in the upper 50s along the higher terrain in northeast Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee.
246 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Visible satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus clouds across the FA this afternoon as high pressure has settled over the region providing calm conditions. MaxTs are now progged to reach the low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Blended maxTs higher into the mid 80s given temps have been running on the warmer side of guidance the previous two days. As a weak cold front approaches the FA in the afternoon and causes the pressure gradient to tighten, BUFKIT soundings indicate the potential for wind gusts near 20 mph across the I-64 corridor as the momentum transfer increases with diurnal heating.
322 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 The cold front continues to make progress across the CWA, perhaps an hour or so quicker than the HRRR had showed earlier today. Cooler and drier air is filtering into the CWA as the front makes its way through the eastern CWA.
125 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 High pressure over the central Appalachians into the lower Ohio Valley tracks slowly southeast into the southern Appalachians through Thursday afternoon. Low pressure works north along a coastal front during this time.
Another great day is expected on Thursday with slightly warmer temperatures and dry conditions continuing.
241 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Key Messages: -Cold front continues to push through the region this afternoon and evening. -Cooler temperatures prevail Thursday, with lower relative humidity. A cold front is draped from Lake of the Woods, southwestward into the northern portions of Ransom County. Looking into Thursday, cooler afternoon highs are expected, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
A cold front moves through the CWA Thursday morning. Highs are expected to be slightly cooler in the north on Thursday, but temperatures are not expected to be much different than today across the south.
1210 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Isolated showers will diminish as a trough of low pressure exits the region. High pressure will then return dry weather to the area through Thursday, before a cold front brings more showers Thursday night. Building high pressure should then return dry weather and a warming trend through the weekend. Dry weather is expected tonight through Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds across the region. A deepening trough, and its associated cold front, are expected to track southeastward from the northern Plains Wednesday, reaching the Upper Ohio Valley region late Thursday.
(This evening through Thursday) Clear skies and warmer conditions continue for Wednesday, with visible satellite continuing to show no clouds over the region. Similar warmer conditions are expected to continue into Thursday.
Key Messages: * A cold front will cross the local area tonight bringing seasonably cool temperatures and lower dewpoints to the region for Thursday. which are associated with a rapidly approaching cold front expected to cross the local area late tonight. Along with the cooler temperatures will be lower dewpoints, which are expected to run generally in the lower to middle 50s Thursday afternoon.
554 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 A cold front will linger over the region into Thursday.
652 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday) 1000-500mb mean RH has fallen to around 30% in the wake of the cold front which is now situated generally east to west along the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will begin to gradually rise again by the end of the week, but for now, we'll gratefully accept dewpoints in the low/mid 60s, highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s with mostly sunny skies, and overnight lows in the 60s.
Visible satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus clouds across the FA this afternoon as high pressure has settled over the region providing calm conditions. MaxTs are now progged to reach the low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Blended maxTs higher into the mid 80s given temps have been running on the warmer side of guidance the previous two days. As a weak cold front approaches the FA in the afternoon and causes the pressure gradient to tighten, BUFKIT soundings indicate the potential for wind gusts near 20 mph across the I-64 corridor as the momentum transfer increases with diurnal heating.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Thursday Night/ The last of the "cooler" weather is upon us so enjoy it this evening and tonight as mid level ridging is expected to rapidly expand into the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak cold front will slide southward toward the Red River but will lose steam and never make it through our area. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s areawide, but will climb back toward the lower 80s for Thursday night.
727 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 A weak cold front over the area will shift slightly westward later this evening, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected into tonight, with the greatest coverage near the eastern Midlands.
Previous Discussion: A cold front is currently making its way across the region which will bring highs this afternoon back down to normal.
For Thursday and Thursday night, northern and central Nevada will remain sandwiched in between a weak upper level closed low over the eastern Pacific and west of California, with upper level ridging over the Rockies.
838 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 High pressure will build overhead through tonight while a stalled front offshore backs inland.
612 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 The cold front continues to make progress across the CWA, perhaps an hour or so quicker than the HRRR had showed earlier today. Cooler and drier air is filtering into the CWA as the front makes its way through the eastern CWA.
813 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 The next round of rain will spread into the region Thursday evening with an approaching cold front. High pressure will then bring dry conditions and warming temperatures through the weekend. For areas that have prolonged cloud-cover, anticipate near to slightly warmer low temperature with limited to no fog development. High pressure positioned just east of the region Thursday will promote a return to mostly sunny skies, with weak warm advection pushing daytime temperature near the daily average. A digging trough will pivot across the Great Lakes and drag a cold front across the region.
648 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 (Tonight) High pressure situated to the north and west of the forecast area will continue to dominate the sensible weather pattern tonight. As a result, temperatures drop down once again into the low to mid 60s. There may even be a few spots in the upper 50s along the higher terrain in northeast Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee.
Earlier rains and storms over the southeastern Gulf collapsed to the south and southeast across the Lower Keys, and since then, the cool and stable pancake batter has spread into the Middle Keys. Temperatures are comfortable for our standards, with island communities in the lower to mid 80s. High pressure over the western North Atlantic along with a ridge extending westward over Florida will dominate sensible weather for the rest of the work week, with gentle breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Strengthening high pressure over the eastern United States and an approaching tropical wave will bring freshening easterly breezes and another round of unsettled weather this weekend.
Key Messages: -Cold front continues to push through the region this afternoon and evening. -Cooler temperatures prevail Thursday, with lower relative humidity. A cold front is draped from Lake of the Woods, southwestward into the northern portions of Ransom County. Looking into Thursday, cooler afternoon highs are expected, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
High pressure will build overhead briefly tomorrow before the next round of rain begins to spread into the region Thursday evening with an approaching cold front. High pressure will then bring dry conditions and warming temperatures through the weekend. High pressure will briefly shift into the upper Ohio Valley Thursday before a digging trough pivots across the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front across the region.
The cold front continues to make progress across the CWA, perhaps an hour or so quicker than the HRRR had showed earlier today. Cooler and drier air is filtering into the CWA as the front makes its way through the eastern CWA.
956 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 A cold front will linger over the region into Thursday.
623 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) The upper level trough that brought most recent cold front to the region has slowed its eastward progression. As another stronger trough dives south out of Canada across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Thursday, it'll pickup and absorb the trough currently located over the SE CONUS.
641 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 There is a trough over the East Coast into the southeast CONUS. A short wave trough is situated from Manitoba/Ontario into the Central Plains with a ridge just behind it. Clear skies prevailed across Kansas with temperatures from the lower 80s in the southeast corner to the mid 90s in the northwest corner.
622 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Mid/upper-level ridging continues to drift eastward over the southern Rocky Mountains this afternoon with subsident air present over the TX PH and South Plains. The contribution of adiabatic compression from the southwesterly breeze will result in a warm night with temperatures in the lower 70s across most of the Caprock while running a few degrees warmer in the Rolling Plains. The weakening cold front will move through the CWA by tomorrow afternoon, and with the lee cyclone nearby, winds will veer throughout the course of the day. Increasing geopotential heights from the core of the ridge moving overhead, in addition to very deep mixing in the boundary-layer (i.
Although winds aloft are predicted to veer progressively to the northwest in this regime, winds at the 850-mb level will assume a more southwesterly component in response to the motion of the upstream trough, and this may promote a bit of cloudiness (especially across the eastern half of the CWFA) through late this evening. However, we still expect skies to clear during the early morning hours Thursday, and with calm winds in place, lows should range from the lower 60s in rural communities to the mid 60s in urban locations and near large bodies of water.
An upper level disturbance will traverse the northern plains tonight, helping to push a cold front through southwestern Kansas Thursday morning. This will result in slightly cooler readings across southwestern Kansas Thursday afternoon compared to today.
634 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Clear skies and warmer conditions continue for Wednesday, with visible satellite continuing to show no clouds over the region. Similar warmer conditions are expected to continue into Thursday.
Discussion: MSAS surface analysis shows high pressure centered along the Mississippi River in Missouri and Illinois. However the better moisture is along and north of the Highway 20 corridor.
Temperatures across the island chain are therefore in the upper 80s with the highest observed temperatures near 90 in the Upper Keys where partly cloudy skies prevail. Light to gentle breezes are out of the south to southwest across our area as a slightly tilted inverted trough axis sits off to the southwest of the island chain in the distant Straits of Florida. The low level trough and its associated moisture is expected to continue west out of our area overnight. A ridge nosing over mainland Florida from the North Atlantic will take control of the weather pattern once again as breezes back around to be generally out of the east to southeast for the duration.
This morning's backdoor cold front will yield a night of cooler temps and higher RH recovery than last night. The low-level winds combined with warmer air aloft moving over the area from the ridge will cause an increase in high temperatures to upper 90s to low 100s Thursday. Due to the high temperatures and heat persisting into the evening, a heat advisory has been issued for Thursday from noon MDT to midnight MDT for much of south central MT.
A trough will be pushing through the state this weekend.
A cold front has pushed through the region bringing in strong post frontal winds across the state. A strong pressure gradient near the surface and pressure rises behind the cold front continues to also support the strong winds. High temperatures tomorrow will be slightly warmer across the west a an upper level ridge builds across the Northern Rockies.
549 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) There isn't very much to talk about in the short term as the upper ridge builds and thickness increases today and tomorrow.
While strong mixing should maintain another day of below normal dewpoints, the gradual Ewd expansion of the upper ridge into the Red River Valley Thursday will result in increasing subsidence and thus, the return of triple digit max temps across the Wrn half of the area.
645 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Tonight and Thursday: Recent frontal passage and building high pressure will bring light winds and mostly clear skies for the evening. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 60s north, upper 60s south. For Thursday, a ridge currently located in the Southern Plains will continue to strengthen and begin moving eastward, bringing additional dry air and heat back to the region. An 'Elevated' threat for fire danger will continue across the southern half of the area and a 'Limited' for the northern half due to the low humidity.
Global guidance continue to show the cold front shifting further south towards the Gulf Coast. /CR/ Tonight and Thursday: Recent frontal passage and building high pressure will bring light winds and mostly clear skies for the evening. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 60s north, upper 60s south. For Thursday, a ridge currently located in the Southern Plains will continue to strengthen and begin moving eastward, bringing additional dry air and heat back to the region. An 'Elevated' threat for fire danger will continue across the southern half of the area and a 'Limited' for the northern half due to the low humidity.