Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today and tonight) The center of the upper-level ridge will slide a bit back to the west today helping 850 mb temps to be a degree or two cooler. Similar to yesterday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon as mid-level moisture remains trapped under the ridge. Thunderstorms should persist into the overnight hours as a convectively reinforced cold front slides to the south with additional convective development likely upon it across the far southern Texas Panhandle into the Rolling Plains. This weak cold front and more widespread thunderstorm activity should help overnight low temperatures be a bit cooler than the past few nights in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Mostly clear conditions are expected tonight with lows in the lower 60s.
(Today through Friday) A low amplitude pattern continues across the CONUS today, with a flattened ridge across much of the west and broad troughing over the Great Lakes and East Coast. Activity will decrease tonight, with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 70s. Highs will be a couple degrees warmer, which will push heat indices above 100F for a larger portion of the area, with locations in the south and west likely to hit 105F.
We will probably just see strong thunderstorms starting in the north ahead of a cold front in the early afternoon and moving south, dying off after sunset. High temperatures today will be warmer in the 80s. The south will be the warmest in the mid 80s from a 850mb thermal ridge. The big low pressure will also keep a steady stream of wildfire smoke coming into North Dakota starting this afternoon.
352 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 High pressure over the region will maintain fair and mainly dry weather through tonight. Another area of storms may form in the evening along the Blue Ridge in the presence of a lee trough east of the mountains and then move downstream into the Piedmont of VA/NC. An upper level low will remain situated over central Canada through this forecast period, and broad troughing will be present over much of the eastern US.
Highs this afternoon will be a bit warmer; ranging from the middle 70s across the north to around 80 across central and east-central Wisconsin. Lows tonight are expected to range from the middle 50s across the north to the lower 60s across east-central Wisconsin. Friday will be even warmer as surface winds turn to the southwest and 850 mb temperatures surge into the middle to upper teens. Highs on Friday are expected to range from the lower 80s across the north with middle to upper 80s across central and east-central Wisconsin.
Gusty afternoon winds are once again possible as Wyoming still sits between a retrograding low pressure from the Hudson Bay area and a high pressure system attempting to build in over the southwest United States.
CAMs are suggesting showers and storms could begin to fizzle out in central Arkansas as the low-level jet begins to weaken. Severe weather is expected to remain on the low side, gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled out. Expect forecast high temperatures to be in the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s to near 110 degrees.
323 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Short Term/Marine Upper low across central Canada combined with a subtropical ridge across the southern CONUS will keep the Great Lakes in a fast west to northwest flow regime through the near term and beyond. This will be the case as upper heights across Canada will be a bit on the low side, and we will be closer to the upper jet.
432 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Low pressure system responsible for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms overnight will push east of Michigan this morning with the core of heavy precipitation now east of Michigan. Dry conditions with trailing clouds are then expected through the remainder of the morning as the low moves further to the east. The overall pattern during the late weak and through the weekend will continue to be governed by the strong low pressure system across central Canada and high pressure ridge parked across the southwest CONUS.
Southeasterly winds will once again be on the breezy to gusty side at times today thanks to high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico and a very strong thermal gradient. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower 80s.
Highs in the low to mid 90s are expected with heat indices likely reaching the 105-110 degree mark.
Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 50s across the north to around 60 across east- central Wisconsin. Highs on Thursday will be warmer ranging from the middle to upper 70s across the north with highs around 80 across central and east- central Wisconsin.
Temperatures very similar to last night, while surface dewpoints have risen into the low 50s mainly along and south of I- 40. Building heat wave on track as strong ridge repositions itself over Nevada and California Friday into the weekend. Locally breezy once again today with less wind under building ridge Friday.
Coverage will then expand during the day tomorrow, especially mid to late afternoon into the evening hours as a weak trough approaches the area.
Overnight lows could be a bit warmer than the forecast, depending on how persistent the cloud cover is, but will hold off on modifying at this point. Temperatures will warm from the 60s and 70s today into the 70s and 80s tomorrow, making for a warmer end to the week before a Friday cold front comes and cools us back down. In the four corners region, a ridge is setting up shop and this will begin to affect us in the beginning of the new work week.
1217 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues tomorrow with heat index values up to 117 degrees possible With an upper-level high pressure remaining parked over the Desert Southwest, increased subsidence over the region will promote above- normal daytime highs. Southerly flow at the surface will continue to usher in a moist airmass with dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s with the highest dewpoints expected across the Coastal Plains. With warm to mild overnight low temperatures expected tonight and tomorrow, poor heat index recoveries will result in heat index values in the lower to upper 90s along the Coastal Bend.
The highest rain report received this evening was from our observer near McNary, reporting 0. Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to decrease from now through the weekend as high pressure strengthens. as the high shifts, precip chances will continue to drop and become confined primarily over the Whites. The high's shift, combined with drier conditions will allow for temperatures to continue to increase as we near the weekend.
232 AM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023 A weak cold front was sinking S into the N part of the forecast area early this morning. Cooler air continues to advect S through the forecast area tonight with 20% chances of showers and thunderstorms over the entire area through 06z. It will be a few degrees cooler on Friday. Arthur The weekend will be warm and dry, with lingering smoke, for most as ridging to the west continues to build over the area.
Discussion: Aloft, we will be somewhat pinned between ridging to our SW and troughing to our north. The flow aloft will be slightly northwesterly and turn more westerly as the trough to the north sinks southward. A stationary boundary will get hung up to our NW before being able to move south as a cold front later in the weekend.
At the same time, the ridge of high pressure over the southwest U. This will keep much of the higher instability and extreme heat southwest of the Upper Mississippi River Valley. KLSE remains under the low saturation.
1045 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 KEY MESSAGES 1) Mostly quiet conditions into Thursday with perhaps some fog in the morning and warmer temperatures by afternoon.
A 500 hPa ridge will remain centered over West Texas through Friday which will contribute to dangerous heat continuing across South Texas during the short term period.
Better chances for something more organized looks to come out of the high Plains Thursday evening, then tracking southeastward into parts of southern Kansas Thursday night.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft situated across the Central/Southern Rockies. Expect lows tonight down into the 60s(F) in west central Kansas to the lower 70s(F) in south central Kansas. Although more minimal in nature, precip chances linger through the weekend as ridging aloft builds in throughout the Intermountain West, setting up a northwesterly flow aloft across the Western High Plains.
The area with the highest risk is northeast Nebraska where temperature could approach 90 degrees.
308 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Overview: Temperatures in the low to mid 90s expected this afternoon with mainly dry conditions. Southern parts of our area will see highs warm into the low to mid 90s for another day. Thankfully most of the area should see heat indices remain in the 90s, but some in the far south CWA may creep into the low 100s.
Mean-layer ridging centered over northwestern Mexico stretches ESE to near the Yucatan Channel. The 00Z FL RAOBs placed the 700 mb ridge axis across southern Florida and the Keys, with KKEY measuring the highest height.
Thursday: A trough over the great lakes will pull a cold front into the Ohio River Valley. The highest chances for showers/storms is between 2pm-8pm.
Models are still locked in on a strong ridge of high pressure (588mb) building just west of the Northern Rockies on Friday.
40 inches advects over the forecast area from out of the west as the influence of dry air and high pressure moves eastward. High temperatures today will rise into the lower to mid 90s with heat index values rising up into the 100s.
245 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 High pressure over the region will maintain fair and mainly dry weather through tonight. Another area of storms may form in the evening along the Blue Ridge in the presence of a lee trough east of the mountains and then move downstream into the Piedmont of VA/NC. By late Thursday, an upper low will be will established with its center over Canada. The troughing associated with this low will be what drives most of our weather through the weekend.
1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) A strong mid-level ridge remains centered over the Four Corners region this afternoon.
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal Pattern Synopsis: A vertically-stacked system will continue to churn over central Canada as southern stream troughing punches from the Great Lakes over New England today. Winds look to go calm again for a time tonight with mostly clear skies in place, likely leading to efficient radiational cooling -- helping to drop temperatures into the low to mid 50s across interior areas of northern Michigan late tonight. The persistent (and kind of annoying) trough remains anchored well north of the region.
(Today through Friday Night) The eastern fringes of the strong mid to upper level high pressure situated over Southwestern CONUS will continue to expand into the South Central CONUS region today and allow for temperatures to heat up a degree or two more than yesterday. The highs will peak in the low 100s this afternoon for inland portions, upper 90s for the southernmost counties, and the low to mid 90s along the Barrier Islands. The high temperatures will be similar to today's, although some locations may be a degree or two lower. The lows during the overnight into early morning hours will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s, keeping us warm and muggy.
1032 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2023 Ridging will keep WY hot and dry through Thursday afternoon.
Seasonal temperatures will occur once again today due to the influence of an upper level trough sitting over the Pacific Northwest. A pattern change will then take place late this week as a ridge builds over the Pacific coast.
The high-pressure system that's been centered over eastern Arizona and New Mexico starts to wobble westward today and will continue to do so through the weekend.
Low pressure system responsible for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms overnight will push east of Michigan this morning with the core of heavy precipitation now east of Michigan. Dry conditions with trailing clouds are then expected through the remainder of the morning as the low moves further to the east. The overall pattern during the late weak and through the weekend will continue to be governed by the strong low pressure system across central Canada and high pressure ridge parked across the southwest CONUS.
641 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 High pressure over the region will maintain fair and mainly dry weather through tonight. Another area of storms may form in the evening along the Blue Ridge in the presence of a lee trough east of the mountains and then move downstream into the Piedmont of VA/NC. An upper level low will remain situated over central Canada through this forecast period, and broad troughing will be present over much of the eastern US.
658 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 (Today through Friday) A low amplitude pattern continues across the CONUS today, with a flattened ridge across much of the west and broad troughing over the Great Lakes and East Coast. Activity will decrease tonight, with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 70s. Highs will be a couple degrees warmer, which will push heat indices above 100F for a larger portion of the area, with locations in the south and west likely to hit 105F.
The Atlantic ridge axis will continue to lift northward this morning, leading to southwesterly flow over the central Florida peninsula. Hot temperatures persist, with afternoon highs in the lower to mid-90s.
Overview: Temperatures in the low to mid 90s expected this afternoon with mainly dry conditions. Southern parts of our area will see highs warm into the low to mid 90s for another day. Thankfully most of the area should see heat indices remain in the 90s, but some in the far south CWA may creep into the low 100s.
Hot and dry conditions under a strong area of high pressure will continue through the weekend.
This corresponds well with the lingering end of the mid/upper trough off the Florida east coast. Below, weak ridging was just to our north with progs of near-surface winds indicating bifurcation later this afternoon. Over the keys, possibilities range from a col over the lower Keys, light northwest, or a more concerning backing surface wind to east-northeast that may promote of repeat of yesterday's convective cloud line late this afternoon. Thus the Lower Keys may see filtered sun, perhaps delaying or limiting future convective growth today. While the next several hours may be fairly quiet in terms of rainfall, chance PoPs are still valid given potential convective development near the Lower and Upper Keys later this afternoon. Weak high pressure will remain near or just to the north of the Florida Keys coastal waters for the next several days.
A stray shower or storm will be possible close to the coast late morning into early afternoon, but an onshore WNW wind flow continues today which will favor the highest rain chances moving west to east away from the coast over the interior this afternoon. High pressure ridging will be in place across the waters for the next several days with light winds 10 knots or less and seas less than 2 feet.
Today look for a weak trough to move just north of our area.
635 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 (Today through Friday Night) The eastern fringes of the strong mid to upper level high pressure situated over Southwestern CONUS will continue to expand into the South Central CONUS region today and allow for temperatures to heat up a degree or two more than yesterday. The highs will peak in the low 100s this afternoon for inland portions, upper 90s for the southernmost counties, and the low to mid 90s along the Barrier Islands. The high temperatures will be similar to today's, although some locations may be a degree or two lower. The lows during the overnight into early morning hours will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s, keeping us warm and muggy.
Today - Friday: This period will continue to feature an upper level low around the Hudson Bay area, with an upper level trough to the east and persistent upper level high over the southwest. The upper level high continues to hold and even build across the southwest, with the upper level low beginning to drop slowly southward towards the Great Lakes as another upper level trough/low begins to move into the Pacific Northwest. Between these features, northwest/west flow will persist with waves of energy rotating around the upper level low.
635 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 A strong west northwest upper level jet will see a slight dip in the flow this afternoon which should enhance westerly flow in the lower levels a bit and swing through a weak mid level wave. Did lower dew points a touch generally west of I-29 as model soundings show that deeper mixing should yield dew points in the lower to mid 50s. Did not go quite that low but lower 60 dew points seemed a bit on the high side. While it does not appear that we will have a major source driving a low level jet we should still have some weak forcing and given continued weak troughing scattered development will remain possible through the night, especially south of I-90 and over southwest MN and northwest IA.
Upper low across central Canada combined with a subtropical ridge across the southern CONUS will keep the Great Lakes in a fast west to northwest flow regime through the near term and beyond. This will be the case as upper heights across Canada will be a bit on the low side, and we will be closer to the upper jet.
The favorable Monsoon flow that finally brought deeper moisture and a daily chance of thunderstorms to the area will waver as high pressure shifts overhead and northwest of the area. We'll pick up a weak easterly steering component to our flow today that could bring some outflow from the higher terrain later in the afternoon and evening hours.
625 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 (Today and tonight) The center of the upper-level ridge will slide a bit back to the west today helping 850 mb temps to be a degree or two cooler. Similar to yesterday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon as mid-level moisture remains trapped under the ridge. Thunderstorms should persist into the overnight hours as a convectively reinforced cold front slides to the south with additional convective development likely upon it across the far southern Texas Panhandle into the Rolling Plains. This weak cold front and more widespread thunderstorm activity should help overnight low temperatures be a bit cooler than the past few nights in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer today as high pressure ridging over the Desert Southwest extends westward.
740 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Aviation Upper low across central Canada combined with a subtropical ridge across the southern CONUS will keep the Great Lakes in a fast west to northwest flow regime through the near term and beyond. This will be the case as upper heights across Canada will be a bit on the low side, and we will be closer to the upper jet.
The favorable Monsoon flow that finally brought deeper moisture and a daily chance of thunderstorms to the area will waver as high pressure shifts overhead and northwest of the area. The upper level high is currently located over the Arizona/New Mexico border. If the high shifts eastward more into New Mexico, there will be more difluence aloft and allow for some cooler temperatures aloft as well, so some deeper convection could be possible for areas east of Tucson in mainly the evening hours. However, if the high stays in place or begins to shift westward, deeper convection will be hard to get with the current dynamics in place.
413 AM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Mean WNW flow will persist through most of the period, as the central Canadian upper low remains in place.
1102 AM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Mean WNW flow will persist through most of the period, as the central Canadian upper low remains in place.
In the upper-levels, zonal flow looks to dominate the pattern until Friday evening when a weak trough enters the region and starts bringing in some northwesterly flow. Friday, a cold front is expected to move through the area and present another chance of severe weather in the afternoon and evening hours.
We will also see scattered thunderstorms develop along a cold front/stationary front to our north. Soundings are not overly impressive and shear is on the low side. Upper level pattern Friday will be zonal over us with a strong upper level low digging over Canada.
In addition, a well defined 700mb trough will be draped across the western FL Panhandle into the Gulf by morning. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s in SE MS.
Looking at the 850 mb level, temperatures are slightly cooler from yesterdays heat wave by a few degrees. Mid-level moisture stuck beneath the ridge and mid level PVA , will help contribute to todays potential thunderstorm development this afternoon. Looking into Friday, the upper level ridge will position itself over the southwest corner of the US.
High temperatures this afternoon will range from the low-mid 80s in the mountains and near NY, to the low- mid 90s in the Middle to Lower Susquehanna Valleys. Also worth noting that portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley could see heat indices approach the upper 90s as rain likely won't reach there until this evening.
There's good model agreement in regards to the weekend pattern, which features cooler air filtering into the region under northwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure will be nosing southward into the region as well.
1125 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 A strong west northwest upper level jet will see a slight dip in the flow this afternoon which should enhance westerly flow in the lower levels a bit and swing through a weak mid level wave. Did lower dew points a touch generally west of I-29 as model soundings show that deeper mixing should yield dew points in the lower to mid 50s. Did not go quite that low but lower 60 dew points seemed a bit on the high side. While it does not appear that we will have a major source driving a low level jet we should still have some weak forcing and given continued weak troughing scattered development will remain possible through the night, especially south of I-90 and over southwest MN and northwest IA.
Isolated storms will be possible near the boundary, especially toward the Ozarks where slightly cooler mid level temps and elevation can assist.
The main story in the short term is the potential for severe thunderstorms by late this afternoon and lasting into the evening hours as a trough pushes across the Nebraska.
1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 (Today and tonight) The center of the upper-level ridge will slide a bit back to the west today helping 850 mb temps to be a degree or two cooler. Similar to yesterday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon as mid-level moisture remains trapped under the ridge. Thunderstorms should persist into the overnight hours as a convectively reinforced cold front slides to the south with additional convective development likely upon it across the far southern Texas Panhandle into the Rolling Plains. This weak cold front and more widespread thunderstorm activity should help overnight low temperatures be a bit cooler than the past few nights in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
1208 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Overview: Temperatures in the low to mid 90s expected this afternoon with mainly dry conditions. Southern parts of our area will see highs warm into the low to mid 90s for another day. Thankfully most of the area should see heat indices remain in the 90s, but some in the far south CWA may creep into the low 100s.
Latest surface analysis depicted weak high pressure across the central Plains, with a frontal boundary extending from southwest Missouri into southern Indiana. Favorable low-level lapse rates, marginal vertical shear and moisture in the low levels from rains yesterday will help fuel potential for scattered showers and storms mainly along and north of Interstate 80.
Synoptically, not much has changed over the past 24 hours with the dominant mid/upper ridge over the SW CONUS continuing to drift ever so slightly to the east.