Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
338 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 A mid-upper level short wave trough exits the area later today. Mid-upper level ridging builds toward the area through the work week, only to retreat westward again this weekend. Increasing sunshine under the still strong late July sun should propel temperature today closer to the higher end of guidance, or at least normal.
An upper level trough, with its axis currently over the Tennessee Valley up into the central Appalachians, will gradually shift eastward through the day today as an upper ridge nudges into the region from the west.
The semi-permanent mid- level anticyclone remains centered over New Mexico. Given the high temp/dew point spreads, some gusty winds could occur with any showers, but overall updraft intensity should be very muted by dry air entrainment. Lows will be a bit warmer tonight given the warmer afternoon temperatures. Tomorrow a mid-level ridge axis will nose eastward from the New Mexico anti-cyclone into the Mid-South and our northwest counties while the Bermuda ridge builds westward into Georgia and the Carolinas. Temperatures should continue to trend warmer, into the mid to upper 90s, but afternoon mixing of dew points should keep heat indices below advisory criteria (105F).
1107 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 An upper level trough will bring scattered thunderstorms this evening and again on Tuesday.
Temperatures for the interior valleys will be about normal the next couple of days as NW California remains sandwiched between an upper trough over the northeast Pacific and a massive ridge aloft centered over the Desert Southwest. Deeper troughing extending southward from the Gulf of Alaska toward the end of the week and over the weekend should yield slightly below normal temperatures for the interior valleys. Greatest uncertainty is with another reinforcing trough from the Gulf of Alaska. Onshore winds along with a shallow marine airmass will keep coastal areas seasonably cooler (lower to mid 60s).
620 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 A upper level high located over the desert Southwest will give heed to quiet weather across the region today. Lows will be around seasonal averages as temperatures will be in the low 70s.
High pressure aloft will continue above average high temperatures into the weekend.
The pattern aloft over the country features high pressure over the southwest, with a trough over the eastern half of the country and ridging over the Atlantic. The Florida peninsula remains under the base of the trough as the ridge extends westward toward the region. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis extends across the central peninsula, with onshore flow continuing across the local area.
647 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Bermuda High pressure will keep the area seasonably warm through midweek with hotter temperatures later in the week. Mid-level trough will linger west of the area today then lift off to the north tonight. Quiet conditions will continue through the mid week period as mid level ridging will the main story. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 90s both days with lows consistently in the middle 70s. Although the area will not be under any actual ridge axis, which has been a good pattern for convection at times in the past, the deep moisture just doesn't seem to be in place or advecting in with the lethargic late summer pattern.
This is in response to a number of features, including a weak frontal boundary draped across the Florida Panhandle, a weak tropical wave north of the Windward Islands slowly gliding westward, and a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) in the vicinity of western Cuba.
609 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (Today and tonight) A drier mid-level airmass will continue to gradually press southward today as the southwesterly flow associated with the retreating upper trough is replaced by the northerly flow of the upper ridge building in its place. High temperatures will push back towards the mid 90s for the northern and western portions of the forecast area with the upper ridge building into the area.
617 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (Today) The eastern half of the ridge of high pressure was firmly in place across the Southern Plains this morning and will continue to remain that way through the day. Some scattered high clouds across the Central Plains were drifting southward along the eastern periphery of the ridge. With the ridge in place over the region combined with the low level thermal ridge expanding east/northeast toward the CWA and breezy/gusty south to southwesterly winds. afternoon temperatures look to be warmer today with highs in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Have gone slightly cooler than the NBM as the NBM was near/warmer than NBM90 for much of the CWA.
Showers and storms will be limited the next few days then an increase in moisture this weekend should result in cooler afternoon temperatures and more numerous and wetter showers and thunderstorms. This high center will meander over northern NM today with the flow around it bringing a drier air mass to the eastern half of the forecast area. Little change in PW depiction across the area on Wednesday although we may see a few more storms pushing off the higher terrain than today.
Generally deep dry air is in place and this is also reflected in the lower levels with Td expected to drop more solidly into the 60s once mixing gets established. Temps will peak in the mid 90s which is a few degrees warmer than prev days. /CME/ A upper level high located over the desert Southwest will give heed to quiet weather across the region today. Lows will be around seasonal averages as temperatures will be in the low 70s.
High pressure will continue to bring hot conditions to Arizona through much of the week. The general weather pattern over the Desert Southwest has not changed much since yesterday with the center of the high pressure remaining over central New Mexico. The clockwise circulation around the high will continue to bring seasonal moisture northward from Mexico. There are indications of some drying late this week only to have a surge of moisture return over the weekend as the center of the high wobbles around.
722 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 An upper level trough, preceded by a compact disturbance aloft over western PA this morning, will help to produce another round of showers and scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly later this morning through the afternoon hours and across the eastern half of the state.
Highs later today should top out into the upper 80s over our eastern areas and in the higher elevations, to low/mid 90s west, with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 102 degrees.
High pressure across the region will maintain above normal temperatures through the remainder of the week.
There could be a strong wind gust with any shower or storm though, given the high based nature of the storms and large dew point depressions. We gave a to elevated fire weather statements as well, but decided against it at this time since the in the areas with the lowest humidity, wind goes not look to be strong enough for long enough.
Hot temperatures will persist under upper ridging on Wednesday.
544 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Current global scale pattern, as indicated on satellite, still shows a strong ridge over the intermountain west and a decent trough over the Hudson Bay region south into the Eastern Great Lakes. This orientation provides ample WAA under the ridge which will be firmly in place over the region. At this point, South Central and Southeast Kansas will have the higher Tds today and into Wednesday. Again, the main issue will be the potential for a mid level trough to come through with some showers and thunderstorms which would keep heat indices in check across the region.
Sufficient atmospheric moisture, daytime heating and an approaching upper-level short wave trough will promote daytime convection across portions of central and eastern Nevada this afternoon. Temperatures will be in the 90s in all valleys this afternoon and about a degree warmer on Wednesday. Lows will drop into the 50s and 60s with the West Wendover area remaining in the lower 70s overnight.
631 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Upper ridge centered over NM today extends from CA to AR and will spin in place through Wednesday. An upper trough over BC/WA/OR will move east along the border flattening the ridge but have little impact for NM and TX. Lows mainly in the 70s with a few 60s for the higher elevations.
659 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 A mid-upper level short wave trough exits the area later today. Mid-upper level ridging builds toward the area through the work week, only to retreat westward again this weekend. Increasing sunshine under the still strong late July sun should propel temperature today closer to the higher end of guidance, or at least normal.
202 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Slightly warmer today then cooler for the remainder of the week with near to slightly below seasonal normal temperatures. A trough of low pressure moving into Canada will allow for the ridge to strengthen slightly today over Northern California.
The upper ridge will remain centered over north central New Mexico today with the upper ridge over us fattening out a bit later today and tonight. 8 inch for the high country today and tonight. Will leave pops pretty much as is, with the highest pops over the mountains and foothills and less as you go eastward into the plains.
632 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (Today through Wednesday) A broad upper ridge covers much of the SW CONUS, but the center remains concentrated over Central NM with H5 heights at around 600 decameters.
Due to cloud cover and lingering precipitation, reduced high temperatures across the CWA for Wednesday, ranging from the low to mid 80s in the east and into the upper 80s in the west.
447 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 07z surface analysis had trough from eastern MT into western NE. Upper support tentatively weak, but given flow around upper ridge there will certainly be a wiggle in there somewhere.
Expect warm conditions inland today with cooler weather closer to the coast. Onshore winds continue with a gradually increasing marine layer as our region is impacted by a trough to the north. (Today and tonight) Marine layer compressed yesterday evening, but is expected to increase later today as our CWA is influenced by an upper level low over western Canada with its trough extending into the Pac NW and NorCal. shallower than the North Bay due to being closer to the large high pressure system sitting over the southern US. That trough to the north is helping our onshore flow pattern with westerly winds at the surface and southwesterly winds aloft as shown by the 00z sounding.
High pressure rebuilds across the region today with clouds gradually clearing in the afternoon.
851 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Bermuda High pressure will keep the area seasonably warm through midweek with hotter temperatures later in the week. Mid-level trough will linger west of the area today then lift off to the north tonight. Quiet conditions will continue through the mid week period as mid level ridging will the main story. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 90s both days with lows consistently in the middle 70s. Although the area will not be under any actual ridge axis, which has been a good pattern for convection at times in the past, the deep moisture just doesn't seem to be in place or advecting in with the lethargic late summer pattern.
620 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night) The short term forecast remains largely dominated by a relatively stagnant synoptic pattern, as a mid to upper level ridge looms over the Four Corners/Texas Panhandle. While this ridge aims to drift eastward slightly, SE Texas should still remain on the peripheral of this ridge, with PWs ranging from 1.
601 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (Today and tonight) A strong upper level ridge will remain entrenched across the Southwest and South-central CONUS today, while the low-level thermal ridge remains strong as well (850 mb temperatures similar to what they were yesterday).
Temps rising a touch slower in a few locations than expected and given the LL temps this morning the afternoon highs could be a touch cooler than forecast as well so we did make a small adjustment to lower the afternoon highs in a few locations otherwise forecast is on track. But the strong heat will be held down as HI numbers should only be several degrees warmer than ambient highs. It takes high dew pt temps to act in unison with hot temps to cause the HI numbers to rocket and dew pts stay around the upper 60s to the low 70s for the most part.
Hot and humid weather is expected to arrive mid-week, before a cold front moves through this weekend. Wednesday will be the one dry day of the week with high pressure in control. With a southerly flow developing, temperatures are expected to be much warmer with highs in the 80s.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Hot and dry weather continues to be the main theme for this week as the 500mb high pressure center continues to hold over the Four Corners area. Heading into Wednesday, models are expecting much the same, albeit with the high weaken slightly for the day. Temperatures are expected to be a little cooler for the day, but a majority of counties are still expected to reach into the triple digits. The only exception currently, will be the Palo Duro Canyon as the lower expected wind speeds should allow the canyon floor to heat up better and reach highs near 107.
TFJ Upper level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest this morning while the ridge over eastern Montana moves to the east today. A weak cold front moves through the area this morning and early afternoon. Monsoonal moisture aloft today may be able to combine with the unstable atmosphere and a secondary cold front in the late afternoon and tonight for a few thunderstorms. Upper trough will track across the Canada Prairies on Wednesday which will flatten the ridge.
Drier air is working in aloft over SEMO as upper ridging builds in from the west. This increase in ridging should set the stage for an even warmer day tomorrow.
This warm air mass in place is a result of the mid/upper level high pressure centered over the Four Corners while a shallow marine layer keeps conditions cooler near the coast. Temperatures will begin to cool this evening with the marine layer expected to deepen slightly as the high pressure aloft begins to weaken. This will be in response a weakening high pressure to the southeast and weak troughing developing over the Pacific Northwest. This will bring temperatures down through midweek with the warmer interior spots only warming in the the mid/upper 80s with areas near the coast and adjacent coastal valleys only warming into the 60s and 70s.
Weak upper level trough remaining near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast through the weekend. A weak system moving out of the trough moving by to the north today.
Ample solar insolation has allowed temperatures to easily climb into the lower to mid 90s yet again today. A tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) cell currently positioned over western Cuba will slowly advect northwestward over the next forty-eight hours. The mean ridging that has dominated the pattern over the past several days will continue to decay.
Surface-based CAPE was 500-1500 j/kg and Bulk Effective Shear was 35-45 kt at the highest. A second cold front was forecast to move SE through the area this evening. Cold front will exit the area in the morning. It will be cooler with highs in the 80s to 90s.
The trough is continuing to depart to the east and northeast, with heights slowly rising through the day. 850 hPa temps are expected to rise into the 17-20C range, and with deep mixing this afternoon under sunny skies, high temps should be a few degrees warmer today than yesterday - solidly in the mid 90s. Tonight, it isn't expected to be much different, with temps cooling into the low 70s under mostly clear skies.
The mid-level heights show the trough over the eastern third of the United States slowly being replaced by the Bermuda High, which is building to the west. Lows tonight will fall into the lower 70s inland to mid-70s at the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be a degree or two warmer than today. Bermuda High pressure will keep the area seasonably warm through midweek with hotter temperatures later in the week. Mid level ridging will be most pronounced offshore as well as over the Southwest. The ridge over the SW U.
With the ridge expansion into the region, warmer temperatures and clearer skies should prevail for the rest of the week.
Fully expect the dewpoints to crash into the low 60s (if not into the upper 50s across south central Alabama) yet again as the dry air mixes down during the late morning and afternoon hours. While temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, the dewpoints will crash back into the mid to low 60s again, so it feel tolerable by Gulf Coast standards.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) Upper ridging, which will remain centered just east of the Four Corners Region over the next couple days, will continue to influence the weather in our neck of the woods. With the extent of the ridge expanding as far east as the Lower Mississippi Valley, expect strong subsidence to continue, resulting in dry conditions, partly cloudy skies, and above normal afternoon temperatures across our region.
Into the afternoon, scattered strong thunderstorms will pose a risk for severe hail and wind across portions of the lower Susquehanna Valley.
(This evening through Wednesday) Upper level high pressure centered over northern New Mexico this afternoon and will make a slight shift westward and possibly a slight weakening.
1240 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Bermuda High pressure will keep the area seasonably warm through midweek with hotter temperatures later in the week. Mid-level trough will linger west of the area today then lift off to the north tonight. Quiet conditions will continue through the mid week period as mid level ridging will the main story. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 90s both days with lows consistently in the middle 70s. Although the area will not be under any actual ridge axis, which has been a good pattern for convection at times in the past, the deep moisture just doesn't seem to be in place or advecting in with the lethargic late summer pattern.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) Trough begins to pull away to the NE, while the ridge out west begins to build slightly east. Increasing isoheights means a slightly warmer trend in the short term. Highs should reach the low to mid-90s today under mostly clear skies. Temperatures overnight a tad higher as warm air advection pulls in slightly warmer and moist air from the east. Tomorrow, should be a a bit warmer as indicated by increasing low-level thicknesses.
No fire weather highlights will be issued today, although there will be breezy winds for areas in and around the Lower Columbia Basin. A broad upper level trough is present over the eastern Pacific and the PacNW with a strong westerly flow aloft. Afternoon temperatures today will be around 5-7 degrees cooler than yesterday, and the RHs will be up and additional 2-5 percent for many areas--associated with yesterday's cold front.
As a result, warmer temperatures will be advected in. Also, aloft, the forecast area sits at the base of a longwave trough that could favor a few afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Supporting severe weather dynamics are closer to the low and timing of the front is unfavorable; therefore, severe weather for eastern Kentucky will be limited but not zero. Any remaining showers and storm will dissipate through the overnight as high pressure slowly works back into the region. Highs will rise into the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s and low 100s.
Current thinking for this is the trough and associated warm front will pass over WI quickly overnight. Due to the quick motion of the trough, timing of the trough, warm front, instability, and LLJ are not looking to line up favorably for severe weather across southern WI.
Hot weather will continue this week with high pressure over the Southwest.
An upper level ridge remains over northern New Mexico, with hot and dry conditions continuing across west central Texas this evening and tomorrow.
The highest confidence in placement for the stronger storms would still be in the SPC Slight Risk area across southeastern ND. Wednesday then still looks to be the warmest day of the week as brief ridging and a thermal ridge are in place. The mentioned weak cold front stalls Wednesday night. After a brief cooling trend to end the week, warmer temperatures will be found along with near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) The center of a broad, but potent 598-600 decameter H5 subtropical ridge will be parked over NM through the short-term period.
(The rest of this afternoon and Tonight) A hot summertime afternoon is unfolding across the region today as mid and upper level ridging continues to expand and shift eastward over the Plains. Current temperatures range from the lower to mid 90s and a few more degrees of warming is expected through the rest of the afternoon. Otherwise, it will be another hot day as the ridge continues to build over the region. For the rest of the week, the upper ridge will dominate the pattern through the weekend.
Strong upper ridging with maximum height values nearing 600 decameters was situated over northern NM, while another strong high with max in the mid/upper 590s decameters was in place over the Bermuda region of the west Atlantic basin. A vortex spinning over the Hudson Bay featured a trough extending to the Appalachians. Under this feature, a few showers/thunderstorms have formed mainly over the Cumberland Plateau, with a lone shower trying to develop over far NE Alabama near Bridgeport. The above noted troughing will weaken over the course of the evening and Wednesday as the upper Canadian low heads towards Davis Strait, and a more zonal upper flow pattern near the United States/Canada border becomes more established.
Only small changes can occur and that's to warm things a bit each day as strong radiation works to warm the lower levels. Highs tomorrow will be a tad warmer, 95-98 expected. Overall, moisture is on the lower side which is keeping humidity in check some.
Issued by National Weather Service Pocatello ID 951 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Southwest flow aloft will continue the cooler, breezy, and dry conditions throughout the region, with gusty winds near the ID-NV border expected today.
Secondary cold front that moves in will keep showers going overnight. TFJ Monsoonal moisture aloft today may be able to combine with the unstable atmosphere and a secondary cold front in the late afternoon and tonight for a few thunderstorms. Upper trough will track across the Canada Prairies on Wednesday which will flatten the ridge.
1212 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night) The short term forecast remains largely dominated by a relatively stagnant synoptic pattern, as a mid to upper level ridge looms over the Four Corners/Texas Panhandle. While this ridge aims to drift eastward slightly, SE Texas should still remain on the peripheral of this ridge, with PWs ranging from 1.
1241 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Mainly dry but hazy conditions are expected through Tuesday with weak high pressure in control.
1205 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (Today and tonight) A strong upper level ridge will remain entrenched across the Southwest and South-central CONUS today, while the low-level thermal ridge remains strong as well (850 mb temperatures similar to what they were yesterday).
1204 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Upper ridge centered over NM today extends from CA to AR and will spin in place through Wednesday. An upper trough over BC/WA/OR will move east along the border flattening the ridge but have little impact for NM and TX. Lows mainly in the 70s with a few 60s for the higher elevations.