Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated an area of low pressure over south-central AI with a warm front the extended east- southeast across central IL. High pressure was located over the Canadian Prairie. The low pressure is forecast to move east across northern IL tonight with the deformation zone beginning to slowly drop south after midnight. Min temperatures to be in the lower 40s north, middle to upper 40s south. Attention then turns to potential lake effect rain showers over northern and eastern WI Saturday afternoon as cooler air gets pulled into the region. Have kept pops on the low side for now.
The nice fall weather will continue through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure continues to build over the region.
The high resolution CAM models are not showing any rain for the plateau until much later this evening.
The cold front, as expected, has ushered in much cooler temperatures to the region and those areas seeing the increased clouds will see even cooler temperatures. Current NBM guidance is indicating that sub-freezing temperatures will occur for zone 1 (NW CO) and zone 8 (central valley) and looking upstream, the clouds that will move overhead later tonight do look fairly diffuse so think plenty of cooling will occur. Tomorrow, high pressure continues to build in as flow becomes more westerly.
A robust mid/upper trough was moving slowly eastward across the Central and Northern Plains early this morning. We continue to see mean mid/upper troughing across the Great Lakes and Northeast through the period keeping a northerly flow across the Central Plains.
251 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 A large low pressure system over the central United States will introduce clouds and showers for most of the area late tonight into Saturday.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) Last night's cold front has pushed all the way through Rio Grande this afternoon, brining in a cooler and drier airmass to the region. Most in the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico top out in the 70s today with 80s down south and in the lower elevations. Comfortable, seasonable weather is on tap for Saturday with a cooler start compared to this morning, high temperatures top out in the low to mid 70s for most.
(Through tonight ) A sharp cold front has punched through the area bringing cooler and drier conditions as well as gusty northwest winds. Skies have temporarily cleared, but increasing clouds are likely overnight as the upper level low approaches the area and the 925-850 hPa layer becomes saturated. Additionally, low level cloud cover looks a bit thicker as the lower levels remain mostly saturated during the daytime hours.
349 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 A cold front will approach tonight and move through the region on Saturday. Breezy and cooler conditions will follow for the rest of the weekend. Dry conditions will start out the near term late this afternoon, however as a cold front begins to approach the region showers and some thunderstorms will start to move in during the evening and through the overnight timeframe. Cooler air will start to work into the region with lows Saturday night dropping down into the 40s. In addition the highest wind gusts are also expected Saturday night where wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible. Periods of unsettled weather are likely, first from a departing upper trough, followed by a frontal system.
Additionally, low level cloud cover looks a bit thicker as the lower levels remain mostly saturated during the daytime hours.
630 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Through tonight ) A sharp cold front has punched through the area bringing cooler and drier conditions as well as gusty northwest winds. Skies have temporarily cleared, but increasing clouds are likely overnight as the upper level low approaches the area and the 925-850 hPa layer becomes saturated. Additionally, low level cloud cover looks a bit thicker as the lower levels remain mostly saturated during the daytime hours.
The low pressure system spins over NE/IA as it shifts eastward and exits our CWA. Behind the main low pressure system, a secondary, weaker low will cross our area tonight into Saturday, reinforcing the cool air and allowing for continued chances for rain showers across south central SD.
522 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Tonight) Satellite imagery shows a low pressure system spinning over the Plains heading towards the upper Midwest. A cold front is positioned to its south, stretching from MO down to east TX. Ahead of the front, a weak warm front is producing some light drizzle/showers in northeast AL and southern middle TN as it lifts northward. Cloud cover in place should hold temperatures this evening in the low to mid 60s before the cold front arrives from the west. How far east these showers progress is still quite uncertain as most short term models indicate that as the upper low pushes off to the east it will pull the better moisture further away from the local forecast area.
A weak weather disturbance will bring increased mid and high clouds to the area into tomorrow morning, otherwise high pressure will dominate for much of the next 7 days.
Areas of low clouds and fog are expected to return to some coast and valley areas tonight, otherwise quiet weather Saturday and slightly warmer.
727 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 A large low pressure system over the central United States will introduce clouds and showers for most of the area late tonight into Saturday.
940 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 The much anticipated cold front is tracking southeast across the Mid-South as of 9:30 PM CDT. Showers are forming along the front and ahead of the front along a pressure trough just southeast of Shelby County, TN.
805 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 The cold front has reached a Del Rio to San Antonio line. (Tonight through Saturday night) Around the noon hour, the cold front entered the Hill Country and has continued to make steady progress southward. Out ahead of this front, conditions remain warm and humid where the afternoon highs reach into the low 90s for many.
Currently - Deep layered ridging is centered across our area. Short Term Update - Deep layered anticyclone will remain in control of Keys weather through the overnight period. Expect overnight lows in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. Low pressure over northern Florida and a ridge across Cuba will keep winds light out of the southwest to west across Keys waters through the overnight period.
305 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Key Messages: 1) Dry night, with cold temperatures and widespread freezing temperatures expected. A compact ridge will push eastward over the southern Colorado region, and within that flow, a weak short wave will drift eastward. While the ridge will provide an overall increase in subsidence, the passage of the minor wave will bring a modest and short lived uptick in forcing. Otherwise, given mostly subsidence with the ridge, dry conditions are expected for southern Colorado.
647 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 A cold front will bring a chance of rain showers to the MidSouth tonight. Cooler and drier air will filter in to the region on Saturday.
Otherwise, it will be warmer with temps in the 50s to lower 60s.
524 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Quick update to nudge temperatures a few degrees cooler tonight into early Saturday. New guidance supports temperatures in the low to mid 30s over northern and western areas on the Caprock, with low 40s elsewhere. (This evening through Saturday) Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level low over the central Midwest with the associated cold front moving through central TX. Tonight the cooler air mass in place will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s and 40s overnight. With winds expected to remain relatively light, portions of the far northwestern TX Panhandle may see temperatures at or around the freezing mark.
504 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2023 The low pressure system spins over NE/IA as it shifts eastward and exits our CWA. Behind the main low pressure system, a secondary, weaker low will cross our area tonight into Saturday, reinforcing the cool air and allowing for continued chances for rain showers across south central SD.
734 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 A cold front will approach tonight and move through the region on Saturday. Breezy and cooler conditions will follow for the rest of the weekend. Dry conditions will start out the near term late this afternoon, however as a cold front begins to approach the region showers and some thunderstorms will start to move in during the evening and through the overnight timeframe. Cooler air will start to work into the region with lows Saturday night dropping down into the 40s. In addition the highest wind gusts are also expected Saturday night where wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible. Periods of unsettled weather are likely, first from a departing upper trough, followed by a frontal system.
654 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Cooler and breezy conditions are ongoing in the wake of last night's cold front.
608 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Last night's cold front has pushed all the way through Rio Grande this afternoon, brining in a cooler and drier airmass to the region. Most in the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico top out in the 70s today with 80s down south and in the lower elevations. Comfortable, seasonable weather is on tap for Saturday with a cooler start compared to this morning, high temperatures top out in the low to mid 70s for most.
929 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 A low pressure system will move into the area late tonight, bringing rain through Saturday night generally south of the New York State Thruway corridor. High pressure over the region today will give way to an advancing low pressure system late tonight through Saturday. The track of the low will remain well south of the region and setting up a tight south to north rainfall gradient. Upper troughing will remain overhead through the weekend and although the threat for widespread rainfall will end Saturday night, showers activity will remain right through the remainder of the period.
552 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (This evening through Saturday) A cold front moved through the area this morning and is now south of Interstate 10. Saturday will be a very nice day with clear skies, light winds and afternoon highs ranging from the lower 70s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 70s elsewhere. It seems as though a broad trough will develop across the Plains and the eastern U.
Cold front is just moving into northwest Louisiana. (This evening through Saturday night) Weak upper level ridge has already passed east of the CWA. A quick moving upper level trough behind this ridge will steadily move east across the mid/upper MS River Valley tonight. A cold front associated with this trough will pass through the local area on Saturday. Due to no pre-frontal return flow to increase local moisture levels, will be a completely dry cold front.
701 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) Weak upper level ridge has already passed east of the CWA. A quick moving upper level trough behind this ridge will steadily move east across the mid/upper MS River Valley tonight. A cold front associated with this trough will pass through the local area on Saturday. Due to no pre-frontal return flow to increase local moisture levels, will be a completely dry cold front.
532 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 A low pressure system will move into the area late tonight, bringing rain through Saturday night generally south of the New York State Thruway corridor. High pressure over the region today will give way to an advancing low pressure system late tonight through Saturday. The track of the low will remain well south of the region and setting up a tight south to north rainfall gradient. Upper troughing will remain overhead through the weekend and although the threat for widespread rainfall will end Saturday night, showers activity will remain right through the remainder of the period.
726 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 A low pressure system will move into the area late tonight, bringing rain through Saturday night generally south of the New York State Thruway corridor. High pressure over the region today will give way to an advancing low pressure system late tonight through Saturday. The track of the low will remain well south of the region and setting up a tight south to north rainfall gradient. Upper troughing will remain overhead through the weekend and although the threat for widespread rainfall will end Saturday night, showers activity will remain right through the remainder of the period.
Short term (Through Fri Night): An occluded 1000mb low pressure system located over Central Iowa is driving the weather across the Northland for the next day or so. Mid-Range Forecast (Sat - Sun): By Saturday Morning, the low pressure should move well to our east leaving behind NE flow.
618 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Quick update to nudge temperatures a few degrees cooler tonight into early Saturday. New guidance supports temperatures in the low to mid 30s over northern and western areas on the Caprock, with low 40s elsewhere. (This evening through Saturday) Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level low over the central Midwest with the associated cold front moving through central TX. Tonight the cooler air mass in place will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s and 40s overnight. With winds expected to remain relatively light, portions of the far northwestern TX Panhandle may see temperatures at or around the freezing mark.
(Tonight) As a cold front moves through the lower Mississippi Valley, there are low chances (30% or less) of shower formation ahead of it throughout northwest AL overnight.
326 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2023 - Widespread freeze expected tonight across the lower elevations.
620 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) Around the noon hour, the cold front entered the Hill Country and has continued to make steady progress southward. Out ahead of this front, conditions remain warm and humid where the afternoon highs reach into the low 90s for many.
The Pacific trough is progressing eastward into the Pacific Northwest as expected this evening.
805 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Weak upper low was shifting out of southeast Montana this evening. Will be a chilly night as lows fall to around freezing for mainly places. If the cloud cover holds on more than expected, lows will end up a bit warmer. Otherwise, it will be warmer with temps in the 50s to lower 60s.
A few showers managed to pop up over the southernmost counties of the CWA this afternoon and early evening to the south of a weak surface boundary/trough south of I-4 where the deepest moisture remains.
Cooler temperatures expected Saturday. Decided to use the NBM which depict highs in the lower 80s, and lows Saturday night in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Temperatures will fall to near or slightly below freezing across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and far northwest Texas Panhandle late tonight into early Saturday morning, Freeze Warning in effect for 4 to 10 AM. Temperatures just above freezing will extend into most of the OK panhandle and most of western and central TX panhandle, Frost Advisory in effect 4 to 10 AM. The SE portions of the TX panhandle is expected to remain warmer and not see any frost conditions tonight into Saturday.
(Today through Sunday) Currently we have lots of clouds and drizzle out there this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Tonight we will see cold air stratus clouds build in from the north and keep temperatures in the low 50s, but we should remain dry. On Sunday, the cold air will be abundant and with decreasing clouds temperatures will only reach the low to mid 60s, with some upper 60s in the southeast.
Otherwise, most areas should stay dry on Sunday but temperatures will continue to be below normal with highs in the low 50s.
1118 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Cooler and breezy conditions are ongoing in the wake of last night's cold front.
156 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023 A low pressure system will move into the area today, bringing rain through tonight for areas south of the New York State Thruway.
1155 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) Around the noon hour, the cold front entered the Hill Country and has continued to make steady progress southward. Out ahead of this front, conditions remain warm and humid where the afternoon highs reach into the low 90s for many. Temperatures for tonight should range from the low 50s in the Hill Country under mostly clear skies to the mid to upper 60s across our southern and western zones where cloud cover is most abundant. The highs on Saturday will trend cooler ranging from the mid 70s into the low to mid 80s.
321 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Low pressure will intensify across the Maritimes today then move to the east Sunday while another low tracks south of the region.
1246 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 (This evening through Sunday) To begin the period, a strong low pressure system is located over the Central Plains moving into the Great Lakes region. As this system continues to push towards the west/northwest a cold front is expected to move through the state. As the cold front moves through the state this evening, temperatures will be brought back below average as cooler and drier air move in behind the front.
320 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023 A weak area of low pressure will move NE along the coast this morning, providing some patchy light rain. Expect cooler air behind the front for Sunday. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region late Sunday night into mid week.
The steady shield of clouds across the Northern Plains remains intact, rotating around the area of low pressure over IA. A lingering trough will remain over the ABR forecast area at 500mb through 06Z Sunday. At the surface, high pressure set up across Saskatchewan and Manitoba this afternoon and the southern stretching ridge over eastern MT will build across ND and central SD by mid afternoon Saturday, where it will reside through the rest of the short term period.
A weak disturbance is passing through currently, resulting in the high clouds stretching across Arizona.
1117 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2023 - Widespread freeze expected tonight across the lower elevations.
A cold front will push down the Florida peninsula today and tonight with much cooler drier air advecting across the forecast area in its wake as a strong U/L trough digs along the eastern seaboard. Progressive U/L pattern this week as the east coast trough lifts out and the next upstream trough digs over the Plains. This will induce ridging downstream over the Florida peninsula with temperatures and moisture rebounding. As the U/L trough translates east, deep moisture will return over the forecast area and combined with increasing large scale lift and an approaching cold front, this will induce numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop across west central and southwest Florida late in the week, with locally heavy rain possible. Period of gusty southwest winds ahead of the cold front may also lead to minor coastal flooding.
The low pressure system spins over NE/IA as it shifts eastward and exits our CWA. Behind the main low pressure system, a secondary, weaker low will cross our area tonight into Saturday, reinforcing the cool air and allowing for continued chances for rain showers across south central SD. By Sunday, the effects of the building upper ridge will finally be felt.
The cold front was just west of Little Rock early this evening. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Saturday) Central Alabama remains under the influence of a moist, easterly flow at the surface with a ridge of high pressure centered over the southern Appalachians. Otherwise, most other locations will remain dry with cooler and drier air advecting in from the northwest through Saturday afternoon and evening with decreasing clouds.
Today through Sunday After areas of light rain gradually diminish this morning, we'll dry out for the afternoon as the upper low responsible for all the wet weather as of late shifts to the east. Otherwise, cool temperatures in the low/mid 50s and windy conditions (north winds gusting around 30 mph) will make it feel fairly cold through the day.
333 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 An upper low over northwest Illinois early this morning will move eastward and open up today as it gets assimilated into a larger- scale trough centered over the Canadian maritime provinces. A second very tiny upper low will descend southeast through Nebraska today, Missouri tonight, and into Tennessee Sunday.
(Today) As a cold front moves through the lower MS Valley, low chances (~20%) of showers are possible ahead of it. As the cold front passes, gusty winds up to 15-20 mph will accompany it and clearing skies are forecast to follow behind it.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday/ A crisp fall weekend is in store following yesterday's cold frontal passage, with clear skies forecast for today's eclipse. The north winds that follow the passage of today's cold front will be slow to slacken, supported by lingering tightness in the low and mid-level pressure gradient. Aloft, situated between an amplifying ridge to the west and a digging trough to the east, seasonably cool and dry northwesterly flow will persist over the Southern Plains through mid-week.
(Today through Sunday) A cold front has moved south of South-Central Texas early this morning with drier and cooler air streaming into the area. Highs this afternoon will be around 8-12 degrees cooler than yesterday, ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. For Sunday, expect mainly clear skies and even cooler temperatures from the low 70s to low 80s depending on location.
Temperatures will fall to near or slightly below freezing across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and far northwest Texas Panhandle late tonight into early Saturday morning, Freeze Warning in effect for 4 to 10 AM. Temperatures just above freezing will extend into most of the OK panhandle and most of western and central TX panhandle, Frost Advisory in effect 4 to 10 AM. The SE portions of the TX panhandle is expected to remain warmer and not see any frost conditions tonight into Saturday. Speaking of plants cold temperatures near around freezing are anticipated again for Saturday night into Sunday morning which may lead to another round of frost and freeze.
1108 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Key Messages: 1) Dry night, with cold temperatures and widespread freezing temperatures expected.
As things clear out the cold front will usher in the shot of cold air that will likely bring an end to summer as we know it.
* STORM EXITING TODAY - but scattered showers continue with some gusty winds and still cool Upper level low continues to churn across eastern IA/northern IL early this morning (per latest watervapor satellite imagery) and is progged to slide over OH by late afternoon. The sfc pressure gradient will slacken through the day as the low pulls east and winds will see a corresponding decrease as it does. Operational runs are on the higher end of the GEFS/EPS members.
A weak disturbance will drag a swath of high clouds across the area tonight, which will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night. We think the clouds/moisture will be the main factor and the trend of a a warmer overnight period looks good.
1245 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Upper level ridging continues to build in across the CWA with increasing convergence aloft through the upper Rockies.
It is very possible for areas in Bailey and Parmer counties, especially low lying areas, to see temps cross the freezing mark before sunrise. Though light thanks to surface ridging, winds will be out of the east to northeast and will keep temps on the cooler side this afternoon.
(Today) A low pressure centered over Illinois early this morning will continue to slide east southeast today with the backside of the low sagging into Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. low level cloud cover on the backside of the low is expected to spread into the CWA today with the greater potential across Northwest Arkansas. Also with the cooler conditions today.