Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Well defined upper low was centered near Toledo with a large shield of showers from the thumb of Lwr MI SW to NW parts of Indiana. Have lingered pops into the evening hours NE as the upper low continues to fill and trough becomes slightly negatively tilted. The steepening lapse rates will help with development of showers along the cold front set to sweep in during the afternoon hours.
At the surface a trough/cold front will work through the area Saturday morning. Cold advection will kick in as low level thermal ridge amplifies ahead of the front. The low will meander across the area into Saturday night with rounds of showers.
(Through tonight ) Bands of mainly light rain ongoing across portions of NE OK are occurring in the mid-level deformation zone in advance of the approaching positive-tilt upper trough from the w/nw. As the PV max, located over southern NM attm, rotates thru the basal portion of the broader parent trough, mid-level cyclogenesis is expected to occur somewhere near the Red River or ArkLaTex region by early Saturday. A persistent omega blocking pattern is expected to continue at least thru this forecast period, if not beyond. Some energy may undercut the Rockies/Hi Plains ridge and bring some storm chances by the middle of the week.
/15/ Saturday night: The upper low will be situated directly over the area by early evening then will shift eastward through the night. As the low pivots over our region, this will focus a few bands of heavier rain along the track across central and eastern MS.
Ample solar insolation will easily allow temperatures to climb to the upper 80s, with a few of the typical favored warmer spots likely reaching near 90.
1214 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 (Rest of Today) The central US remains entrenched in a longwave troughing pattern. OHX's morning sounding shows the capping inversion above the freezing level with low levels of CAPE.
141 PM PDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Building high pressure over the Southwest will bring warmer days inland this weekend, while coastal areas are moderated by periods of low clouds and cool sea breezes in a shallow marine layer.
1241 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front is continuing to push southward and, as of 1 AM, is through the northwestern Texas Panhandle. Ongoing rain behind the front is also expected to push southward as the upper trough digs southward. Tonight will be much quieter with winds becoming light after sunset as surface ridging begins to set in. Some areas, particularly across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle, could see temps reach the freezing mark.
This Weekend: An amplifying midlevel trough over the upper-MS Valley is forecast to evolve into a deep-layer cyclone over the Great Lakes with strong north-northwest surface winds developing on the western periphery of the system over the mid-MO Valley. Over eastern NE, comparatively warmer temperatures (i.
The near term models are in good agreement with an upper level trough moving into western Oklahoma and eastern Kansas early tonight.
So far, isolated showers have remained north of I-20, closer to an approaching cold front and vort max rotating over the TN Valley. Overnight lows will be in the lower 50s to mid-60s.
Quiet weather is expected today as an upper ridge begins to build over the region. 12Z morning BOI sounding does show 25kts or so in the lowest level but much lighter winds aloft.
Temperatures this morning are on the cooler side as a result. Satellite shows the upper level trough axis sinking south of the forecast area, and with that heavier precipitation is quickly winding down. Deep northerly flow will be over the forecast area as a high amplitude ridge builds to our west. Over the weekend, a ridge of high pressure will be over the Rocky Mountain region, with a fairly brisk northerly flow aloft over eastern CO on Saturday.
131 PM MDT Fri Apr 28 2023 With an upper level ridge of high pressure building over Montana the next few days, expect plenty of sunshine, along with a nice spring warming trend.
(The rest of today ) An upper level trough is diving into the area and closing off. As of right now, a band of precipitation associated with the upper level trough is moving into the CWA from the west, and is primarily being driven by mid level ascent from the diffluence of the trough. However, as the trough closes off the forcing for this ascent will wain and the precipitation band will fall apart across northeast OK. As the upper level low closes off a lower atmosphere low pressure center will spin up near the OK-TX-AR triple point, with good frontogenesis in the 925-850 hPa layer on the backside of this low.
At the surface, low pressure was forming across Texas and high pressure was centered along the Colorado Front Range. This time, temperatures will be much warmer, into the 70s.
(This evening through Saturday) The trough that is bringing showers to our area today continues to swing across the south-central plains and towards the Gulf Coast as a deepening northern-stream trough descends towards the Great Lakes region.
Upper level ridging will build in strong from the west directly situating over the Continental Divide as increasing convergence aloft dominates the regime for the upcoming days ahead.
Overall, except a weakening trend in storms as they progress to the east ahead of a a cold frontal boundary this evening. Low pressure departs after midnight with showers diminishing in its wake. Mild conditions are expected overnight with temperatures climbing into the 60s and 70s on Saturday; although mountain locations will be slightly cooler in the 50s.
900 PM MDT Fri Apr 28 2023 With an upper level ridge of high pressure building over Montana the next few days, expect plenty of sunshine, along with a nice spring warming trend.
1056 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023 A cold front will approach the region on Saturday and move through Saturday night bringing cooler weather to the region. With cloud cover around for most of the night temperatures will not drop much more with lows in the lower to upper 40s. Flow remains southwesterly during the day as low pressure deepens in the northern Great Lakes region. A cold front approaches the area in the evening, with significant warm advection found ahead of it. The cold front crosses early Saturday evening and a line of convection is expected to accompany it. Overnight lows will not be as cold as would be expected after a strong cold front, but the upper flow remains southwest ahead of the upper low, limiting the strength of the cold air push.
These temperatures will just go upward beyond this as high pressure amplifies over the West and pushes toward the spine of the Rockies by yet another system digging down the Pacific Coastline of NOAM. This ridge will be slow to arrive and slow to leave as there will be a strong downstream blocking low in place. Overnight lows will still drop below freezing above the 10K level over the next several days so peak runoff will be somewhat held in check until that changes. A well established blocking high is still expected to set up shop across the Rockies this weekend.
212 PM PDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Warm temperatures around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year will prevail today through tomorrow, with the valley reaching the low to mid 90's in the afternoon.
A persistent omega blocking pattern is expected to continue at least thru this forecast period, if not beyond. Some energy may undercut the Rockies/Hi Plains ridge and bring some storm chances by the middle of the week. Lacy (00Z TAFS) Bands of light to moderate rain will continue to spread across the region this evening into the overnight hours in association with upper trough.
623 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 (Through tonight ) Bands of mainly light rain ongoing across portions of NE OK are occurring in the mid-level deformation zone in advance of the approaching positive-tilt upper trough from the w/nw. As the PV max, located over southern NM attm, rotates thru the basal portion of the broader parent trough, mid-level cyclogenesis is expected to occur somewhere near the Red River or ArkLaTex region by early Saturday. A persistent omega blocking pattern is expected to continue at least thru this forecast period, if not beyond. Some energy may undercut the Rockies/Hi Plains ridge and bring some storm chances by the middle of the week. Lacy (00Z TAFS) Bands of light to moderate rain will continue to spread across the region this evening into the overnight hours in association with upper trough.
636 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 The center of a nearby upper low will continue to depart eastward this evening which will take most of the persistent mid-level cloud cover with it. We'll eventually begin to pick up an additional mid and high-level deck overnight in advance of the next disturbance, but in the interim, envision a few of our cooler/more sheltered locations will drop into the upper (if not mid) 30s.
637 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Precipitation will taper off and move east late this afternoon into the early evening as a sharp upper level trough axis moves overhead.
Hi-res guidance still showing widely scattered light showers as the low slides south. The showers will exit Saturday evening as high pressure builds in from the northwest. The strong winds coupled with RH in the lower 20s by late afternoon will lead to elevated fire danger for the west river counties.
604 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) The immediate concern continues to surround the approach of a cold front, along with an associated line of strong thunderstorms, this evening. An isolated tornado, which has already been observed along the line previously, cannot be ruled out given the highly favorable shear profile. As advection brings cooler and drier air to the area, clouds should gradually clear from south to north over the course of the day.
A cold front will approach from the west tomorrow morning, pushing east across central IL through the early afternoon hours. There is an other shot of rain Saturday evening, as an upper wave rotates around the upper low over Lake Michigan. The lows for tonight are in the mid 40s for the entire CWA with calm, variable winds and mostly clear skies. A cold front is poised to make its way through central Illinois early Saturday morning (just before 12z Saturday) and be out of here by Saturday evening (~21z Saturday). The lows north of I-70 are expected to be in the low 40s and upper 40s south of I-70.
A potent, synchronized fast moving mid-level trough and quick moving surface cold front is moving into Central Texas now and will move through Deep South Texas by sunrise Saturday.
/NEW/ /Through Saturday Evening/ A cold front working its way through North and Central Texas will be the focus for thunderstorm development across the eastern third of the region for a couple more hours. Additional storms will be possible later in the evening and overnight behind the surface front, as the upper low driving the system drops southeast from Oklahoma into North Texas. Scattered showers may linger east of I-35 into Saturday morning as the upper low slows down and turns east. All precipitation should end around midday, giving way to cooler and drier conditions along with north winds behind tonight's cold front. Clouds should also end from west to east as the upper low exits, giving way to a mostly sunny afternoon with highs ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
544 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Despite a recent frontal passage, we remain under a generally troffy flow pattern that will therefore subject us to its cold core of clouds/cooler temps into/thru the weekend.
With an upper level ridge of high pressure building over Montana the next few days, expect plenty of sunshine, along with a nice spring warming trend.
617 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Cold front making rapid progress across the southeast portions of the area, with temperatures falling into the 50s across the Big Country. Otherwise, much cooler air mass moving into the area with temperatures diving down into the low to mid 40s tonight, or roughly 15 degrees below normal. Gusty northerly winds will continue into Saturday, but will lots more sunshine, temperatures will still have a chance to rebound back into the low to mid 70s.
641 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) Zonal flow has been over the area today as we are in between a trough over the upper great lakes and another one over the southern rockies. Tomorrow, the trough over the southern rockies is expected to dig into the southern plains and eject over Texas Saturday morning. Later in the day, it is possible for more storms to develop later in the early- evening over southeast Louisiana due to dynamical forcing from the trough and its associated cold front.
639 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) The much-advertised cold front has nearly made it to the Rio Grande early this afternoon, with gusty northerly to northeasterly winds and fairly widespread blowing dust in its wake. Saturday night will be cool, but several degrees warmer than tonight as southerly return flow resumes, with lows in the middle 40s and lower 50s across the region.
605 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 (This evening through Saturday) The trough that is bringing showers to our area today continues to swing across the south-central plains and towards the Gulf Coast as a deepening northern-stream trough descends towards the Great Lakes region.
746 PM MDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Satellite imagery shows strong western CONUS ridge and NW flow over our region. As a result, Saturday will be cooler than today across the east half of our forecast area. JKL Upper ridging slowly moves into central MT and allows our temperatures to stay above normal through the weekend with highs flirting with the 70s each day. What will keep temperatures from increasing more is persistent east flow at the low-levels, and this will also keep surface humidities fairly mild. At the end of the weekend, the national flow becomes an omega blocking pattern, with a deep upper low off the west coast, and sitting over the Great Lakes region.
Winds have become mostly calm, which will help with fog development, but increasing cloud cover from the west might keep temperatures a touch warmer than expected. Other than that, only made a few changes to hourly temperatures to account for a slightly warmer trend this evening. Overnight, Middle Tennessee will be stuck right along a warm front. The warm front will lift north of the area during the morning.
830 PM PDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Building high pressure over the Southwest will bring warmer days inland this weekend, while coastal areas remain cool with areas of low clouds from a shallow marine layer.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, infrared satellite imagery showed that skies were clear and temperatures have dropped into the low 50s to upper 40s as post-frontal cool air moves in from the north. Water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper trough over East Texas (with storms ahead of the trough axis in far east and south Texas) continuing to move east. Today, the upper level trough will continue moving east while cool northwest flow aloft an,d at the surface will strengthen across the region.
Rainfall amounts have remained comfortably below 1 inch, with the highest totals generally along the M-59 corridor. Although most of the day looks to be dry, low level moisture (925 MB)/low clouds will be a challenge to dislodge/dissipate with the troughing/low pressure center close by through the day. Aggressive northern stream trough/height falls coming out of Minnesota this morning and swinging through Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan this evening. The RAP solution appears to be the most aggressive with instability reaching 750+ J/kg, but a bit weaker with the low level wind shear.
252 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2023 No real worries today as ridging builds over the area to bring a nice spring day to most locations with sunshine, some clouds and temperatures a few degrees above seasonal normals.
1223 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Cold front making rapid progress across the southeast portions of the area, with temperatures falling into the 50s across the Big Country. Otherwise, much cooler air mass moving into the area with temperatures diving down into the low to mid 40s tonight, or roughly 15 degrees below normal. Gusty northerly winds will continue into Saturday, but will lots more sunshine, temperatures will still have a chance to rebound back into the low to mid 70s.
(Tonight through Friday) A blocking pattern aloft will keep our area in northwest flow through much of the forecast period.
/Issued 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023/ /Through Saturday Night/ Showers and thunderstorms associated with a passing upper trough will end from west to east overnight through Saturday morning. The severe threat has passed now that the cold front is well south of the region. The trough axis will pass to the east by midday Saturday, bringing an end to all rain chances and clearing out the clouds currently in place. Cold air advection and a strong and gusty northwest wind will yield a rather chilly night for late April with lows ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. Cold air advection Saturday will be offset by the return of the sun in the afternoon, allowing temperatures to warm into the lower 70s across the western half of the forecast area.
Two low pressure systems. Evolution of these low level systems are in response to a sharp upper level trough digging into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Latest near term models still point toward the development and deepening of a closed upper level low over the Western Great Lakes region over the next 24 hours.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, infrared satellite imagery showed that skies were clear and temperatures have dropped into the low 50s to upper 40s as post-frontal cool air moves in from the north. Water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper trough over East Texas (with storms ahead of the trough axis in far east and south Texas) continuing to move east. Today, the upper level trough will continue moving east while cool northwest flow aloft and at the surface will strengthen across the region.
Therefore, the High Risk Of Rip Currents will be allow to expired at 8 PM EDT this evening for the east coast beaches of South Florida.
1125 PM MDT Fri Apr 28 2023 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION With an upper level ridge of high pressure building over Montana the next few days, expect plenty of sunshine, along with a nice spring warming trend.
Ensemble and deterministic model guidance remain in very good agreement for the ridge of high pressure building into the Northern Rockies to cause very warm temperatures for this time of the year.
In eastern portions of the area, temperatures are a tad warmer, still in the 58 to 62 degree range. Despite this high/thin cloud cover, dewpoints depressions are already at 0 to 2 degrees in many locations across northern Alabama.
314 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Low pressure has shifted to our east. The main 500mb low over Nunavut (far northern Canada) continues to extend a trough south across MN/IA/MO with northwest flow across the Dakotas. Ongoing rain showers over eastern South Dakota and western MN look to sink southeast with the low, with the highest chances for precipitation being prior to 15Z.
The upper low that brought yesterday's cold front and resulting winds is now just to the east of the FA and will continue pushing southeastward through the day. Upper flow over the FA will be northerly through much of the day and transition to more northwesterly as the upper low approaches the Lower Mississippi River Valley by late afternoon/early evening.
Even so, modest instability coupled with the low should yield scattered showers and some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
1203 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Precipitation will taper off and move east late this afternoon into the early evening as a sharp upper level trough axis moves overhead.
1130 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) Zonal flow has been over the area today as we are in between a trough over the upper great lakes and another one over the southern rockies. Tomorrow, the trough over the southern rockies is expected to dig into the southern plains and eject over Texas Saturday morning. Later in the day, it is possible for more storms to develop later in the early- evening over southeast Louisiana due to dynamical forcing from the trough and its associated cold front.
1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) The much-advertised cold front has nearly made it to the Rio Grande early this afternoon, with gusty northerly to northeasterly winds and fairly widespread blowing dust in its wake. Saturday night will be cool, but several degrees warmer than tonight as southerly return flow resumes, with lows in the middle 40s and lower 50s across the region.
(Today) An upper low/trough pattern continues to dive southward into the southern Plains this early Sat morning, as an attendant cold front gradually moves eastward over the Midwest region into the ARKLATEX area. Otherwise, latest model suites have both the upper trough axis and attendant cold front moving further east into the western/central Gulf states later today, with iso/sct showers/tstms spreading into parts of the area this afternoon.
200 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Positively tilted upper trough is lumbering eastward towards the area. Ahead of the trough a front sits from northwest Arkansas into central Illinois. Stronger warm advection along a warm front over southern Arkansas is marked by a larger area of rain showers while weaker showers are developing a little closer to home.
301 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Early this morning, split flow upper troughs were across Minnesota and Oklahoma. A surface cold front was back near the Mississippi River. Meanwhile, forcing from the surface front and northern upper trough will not arrive until this afternoon. Another surge of forcing will rotate around the upper low across Wisconsin tonight. Low temperatures will be in the lower 40s once again as colder air returns with the upper low.
1035 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) Zonal flow has been over the area today as we are in between a trough over the upper great lakes and another one over the southern rockies. Tomorrow, the trough over the southern rockies is expected to dig into the southern plains and eject over Texas Saturday morning. Later in the day, it is possible for more storms to develop later in the early- evening over southeast Louisiana due to dynamical forcing from the trough and its associated cold front.
A persistent omega blocking pattern is expected to continue at least thru this forecast period, if not beyond. Some energy may undercut the Rockies/Hi Plains ridge and bring some storm chances by the middle of the week.
238 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023 A vigorous cold front will push through the area this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms.
(Today and tonight) As upper low slowly exits the region this morning, light showers should end across far east/southeast counties by daybreak. Northerly winds will be a little on the gusty side as mixing commences, but overall a much better day than we have seen in several days with highs mainly in the lower 70s.
1046 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 (This evening through Saturday) The trough that is bringing showers to our area today continues to swing across the south-central plains and towards the Gulf Coast as a deepening northern-stream trough descends towards the Great Lakes region.