Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level troughing currently positioned over the Pacific Northwest is expected to dig southward and deepen over interior NorCal. The timing and location of the trough will have a large bearing on the overall timing and location of attendant precipitation impacts.
The presence of subtle vorticity maxima rotating around the closed mid-upper low just to our northeast, convergence associated with its lower tropospheric circulation, and a small amount of instability through diabatic surface heating may be enough for isolated showers to continue across portions of central Indiana today. The synoptic pattern will shift considerably Friday into the weekend as the closed low departs and significant midlevel height rises commence.
Today and Friday will remain relatively warm before much cooler conditions arrive for this weekend. The increase in cloud cover is due to an incoming low pressure system that will park itself right over northern NV through the weekend.
Otherwise, today will see temperatures back into the lower to middle 90s for most locations, but a few spots in the west should be in the upper 90s. Highs Friday will be back in the lower to middle 90s.
Expect cloudy to mostly cloudy skies today, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Mid level heights rising over the central plains this morning while an upper trough dominates the western conus and a meandering area of low pressure has shifted into Texas.
General low pressure remains over the region with occasional showers and temperatures slightly below normal.
656 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023 High pressure will continue to bring dry weather and seasonable temperatures today. A low pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic coast is expected to bring some rain on Friday to parts of Northeast PA and Central NY, especially across the Poconos and Catskills.
623 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 (Today through Friday Night ) Upper cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to move off to the northeast this morning. Ridging over the nations mid section will build eastward and over the region through the remainder of the period, keeping rain chances at bay. Very warm and dry conditions will continue through the period as the upper ridge dominates.
All of the short term models are showing a rapid warm-up this morning as an east-west stationary boundary lifts northward across the I-70 region as a warm front, and widespread vertical mixing occurs across the area.
An incoming trough of low pressure will put an end to our warm weather, ushering in gusty winds and increasing chances for precipitation this weekend. A deep area of low pressure is set to dive down the West Coast over the next few days, bringing a strong taste of fall to northern Arizona. This low pressure system is currently tied up in southeast Alaska and British Columbia as part of a relatively low amplitude trough. However, model guidance is in strong agreement that the system will quickly sink south and form a deep longwave trough.
602 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 (Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Isolated thunderstorms possible along the afternoon seabreeze - Heat index values 100-105 today High pressure will remain over east Texas with a 500 mb trough to our east, so we will not expect much change in today's weather from yesterday.
Elevated instability, combined with relatively low freezing levels, could lead to strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and gusty winds.
1253 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 (Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Isolated thunderstorms possible along the afternoon seabreeze - Heat index values 100-105 today High pressure will remain over east Texas with a 500 mb trough to our east, so we will not expect much change in today's weather from yesterday.
Overnight lows will range from the lower 70s inland to the low 80s along the coast both tonight and Friday night.
(Today and tonight) An upper level trough currently centered over the Great Lakes region will slide east throughout the day on Thursday and into Thursday night. As this trough progresses into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states on the southern jet stream currently traversing northern Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico will continue to remain quasi- stationary over the region in a southwest to northeast orientation.
(Friday through Thursday) Pattern across the CONUS will continue to amplify into the weekend with strong ridging aloft extending through the central states. Eventually the western CONUS trough will progress eastward with increasing rain chances through the southern Plains.
An upper level low will move east across the Great Lakes region causing a weak sfc frontal boundary to sag south of the FA by this evening. Otherwise, clearing skies are in store for Friday as an upper level ridge axis begins to build over the Mississippi. Above normal temperatures remain in store with maxTs in the low to mid 80s on Thursday and mid to upper 80s on Friday.
The upper level low continues to slowly shift eastward today, currently centered just west of Lake Erie. Better eastward progression of the upper low is expected overnight into Friday morning. Weak warm advection ahead of the trough will warm temperatures by several degrees on Friday.
Radar is fairly active off to our north in Tennessee, thanks to an upper level trough and closed upper low moving eastward over the Great Lakes states.
Heading through the remainder of the near term, surface ridging over much of the eastern CONUS will continue to hold sway.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be a touch warmer than yesterday as the upper-level ridge strengthens slightly over our region. Thunderstorm chances are expected to be meager under the building ridge and only a few thunderstorms are expected around the higher elevations. Heading into Friday, the nearly stationary western trough begins to dig across California. At the same time, the ridge over the southern Great Plains begins to amplify.
Air mass behind the front is not overly cool, so only expecting a few degrees setback on Friday as highs drop back into the low to mid 70s for most areas.
203 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023 High pressure remains wedged against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid/upper level low pressure slowly moving east across southeast lower Michigan this afternoon, with attendant much more diffused surface response detached well off to its south. A few degrees cooler tonight, with lows ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Short wave ridging builds in for Friday into Friday night leading to precipitation free conditions.
(Friday through next Thursday) As the sun comes up tomorrow, the influences of a decent upper level ridge will start to take hold across the region.
214 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 An upper level low continues to work its way east over Michigan and the eastern Great Lakes today. An attendant front is moving through the area today propelled by the passage of the upper low. Tomorrow an upper level ridge axis moves overhead and will help to keep us dry and warm.
248 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Key Message: Quiet with fog possible Tonight, high pressure will provide the area with mostly clear skies and light winds. Friday, mostly sunny skies will be seen, as high pressure remains over the area and a warm front moves into central Iowa.
/Issued 1149 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023/ /This Afternoon through Friday Night/ Sunny skies and warm conditions will continue for the rest of the afternoon and again on Friday despite a weak upper trough lingering along the Texas coast.
Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm across northwest Oklahoma late tonight into Friday morning as we see the low-level jet shift slightly eastward along with an uptick in MUCAPE within a mid-level moisture axis (~10% chance of development). Winds will increase on Friday as a lee cyclone deepens in southeast Colorado and the surface pressure gradient tightens locally. High temperatures on Friday will be very similar to today, with readings in the low to mid 90s.
(This evening through Friday night) Mid level moisture will increase across the northern CWA overnight in association with a short wave trough moving out of New Mexico. Have left the forecast dry for Friday, but would not be surprised to see some isolated showers or thunderstorms Friday night as mid level moisture increases and the low level jet kicks in.
For Friday, we will see very similar conditions, with even less chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, and temperatures of a degree or two warmer, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Models split on if/where the low stratus will become a thick fog layer, with the HREF/SREF focusing more towards central and north central WI, but model soundings from the RAP/HRRR favoring the Fox Valley where winds are lighter at/under the inversion. Leaned toward the warmer guidance due to the clouds/fog, which holds lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The lower clouds will linger for much of the morning, with a clearing trend in the afternoon expected with a few cu possible along with some upper clouds.
1202 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 (Today through Friday night) Today and Friday will see weak ridging pushing east out of the panhandles as a low pressure center deepens over SW CONUS. A low amount of moisture will linger over the panhandles for both today and Friday as the ridge slowly departs. What is more certain is that the pressure gradient will be tightening with the deepening low pressure leading to the return of winds across the panhandles. Temperatures will remain on the hotter side even with the slow departure of the ridge with highs in the 90s expected across the panhandles.
1252 PM MDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Upper Midwest with large upper trof over the western CONUS. At the surface, cold front has moved into central SD and is through all but Tripp county in our forecast area.
On Friday, we anticipate the development of southwesterly airflow as a deep trough and an eventual anomalous closed low begin to dig into the southwestern region.
Patterson (Issued 255 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023) Today and Tonight: The upper low that has loitered near the region for the past 3-4 days continues a Midwest Goodbye, slowly exiting stage east.
At the surface, a broad inverted trough sits over the peninsula, with a frontal boundary north of the forecast area.
Regarding temperatures, tonight's lows will range from the lower 40s across the northwest to the mid 50s over the James River Valley. Friday's highs should be very similar to today, mainly in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Through the weekend, the western US trough will dig into the Desert Southwest with nearly meridional flow developing to our west.
(This evening through Friday Night) Quiet conditions across the area, as upper-level ridging continues to expand across the region. On Friday, the quiet conditions will remain as upper ridging continues to expand out of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
1238 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 (Today through Friday Night ) Upper cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to move off to the northeast this morning. Ridging over the nations mid section will build eastward and over the region through the remainder of the period, keeping rain chances at bay. Very warm and dry conditions will continue through the period as the upper ridge dominates.
Increasingly windy and cooler temperatures and are expected over the weekend with an approaching area of low pressure.
342 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 There is a mid level low pressure system over Michigan/Ohio River Valley and a trough over western Canada to Baja. Highlights: 1) Above normal temperatures persist and likely dry 2) Breezy with elevated fire danger As mentioned in the previous discussion, moisture advection could prompt some sprinkles or showers Friday morning combined with a slight shift of the low level jet and a subtle short wave over southeast Colorado/southwest Kansas.
Under the stratus deck this afternoon a few clouds are still wringing out the last of the drizzle/light rain as the weak low pressure finally makes its exit.
Although temperatures will remain well above normal for this time of year, the passage of the trough overnight will shave 2-3 degrees from today's high temperatures. As an upper level trough approaches from the west which will keep majority of the CWA under southwest flow.
Temperatures were mainly in the lower and middle 70s. The latest surface analysis shows eastern Kentucky still in the warm sector of a weak low pressure centered near the Indiana/Ohio border.
Otherwise, the upper level pattern will feature a trough axis sweeping through the area this evening.
(This evening through Friday) Upper ridging is on track to slowly amplify over the region later today and through Friday from a high poised over Baja California Sur. Water vapor imagery early this afternoon clearly shows an embedded vort max riding over this ridge in the Four Corners, yet this wave should pass to our north with little fanfare tonight. NBM looks a bit soft with highs on Friday particularly given rising heights and thicknesses under the ridge axis, so highs were nudged up a few degrees across the board.
An upper level low pressure system will continue to inch eastward over Lake Erie overnight, positioning its center over northwest PA by the early morning hours. Residual moisture and trough axis dynamics will maintain a lower probability light rain shower for the rest of the nighttime period, but lack of forcing and strong convergence will limit areal coverage. - Notable dry air rounding of the base of the trough is creating some clearing across southeast OH. The upper trough will exit the region Friday, with lingering vort advection and diurnal heating providing enough upward motion with a still moist boundary layer to offer low probability, localized rain showers. High pressure building in from the west will erode those chances, as well as area cumulus clouds, to offer a mix of sun/clouds as temperature settles near seasonal averages.
630 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 There is a mid level low pressure system over Michigan/Ohio River Valley and a trough over western Canada to Baja. Highlights: 1) Above normal temperatures persist and likely dry 2) Breezy with elevated fire danger As mentioned in the previous discussion, moisture advection could prompt some sprinkles or showers Friday morning combined with a slight shift of the low level jet and a subtle short wave over southeast Colorado/southwest Kansas.
The upper level low currently centered over western Lake Erie is expected to exhibit better eastward progression tonight into Friday morning. Weak warm advection ahead of the trough will warm temperatures by several degrees on Friday.
By sunrise Friday, longwave ridging will begin to dominate our weather pattern which will result in warm, dry air to set in over the Mid-South.
Overcast skies, with low clouds north of the frontal boundary, and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
510 PM MDT Thu Sep 28 2023 A cold front stalled over Wyoming is responsible for cooler temperatures today, most notably across the northern half of the forecast area.
312 PM MDT Thu Sep 28 2023 A cold front stalled over Wyoming is responsible for cooler temperatures today, most notably across the northern half of the forecast area.
Will hang onto slight chance PoPs a bit longer through the evening, as a trough remains overhead. Temperatures were mainly in the lower and middle 70s. The latest surface analysis shows eastern Kentucky still in the warm sector of a weak low pressure centered near the Indiana/Ohio border.
453 PM MDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Upper Midwest with large upper trof over the western CONUS. At the surface, cold front has moved into central SD and is through all but Tripp county in our forecast area.
1007 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023 High pressure continues across the CWA this evening.
A weak area of low pressure in the mid levels near the SE TX/SW LA Coast has helped provide some additional mid and high level clouds through this evening, but with the expected weakening of this system, clouds will slowly dissipate through the overnight hours. With little to no change in the synoptic pattern, high temperatures will be nearly identical to today, reaching into the low to mid 90s across SE OK and SW AR and into the mid to upper 90s across E TX and NW LA. Kovacik (This evening through Friday Night) Quiet conditions across the area, as upper-level ridging continues to expand across the region. On Friday, the quiet conditions will remain as upper ridging continues to expand out of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Maximum temperatures for the weekend will be in the low to mid 70s with partly to mostly cloudy skies through the forest area. Friday afternoon to evening, deterministic model guidance suggests an upper level trough will deepen southward off the Pacific coast. Cyclonic flow around the upper low will bring an elevated amount of moisture to the forecast region from the south/southwest. The upper level system will also bring cooler temperatures to the region, with many areas seeing maximum afternoon temperatures for the weekend in the low 70s, 10 to 15 degrees below average for this time of year.
643 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 (This evening through Friday Night) Quiet conditions across the area, as upper-level ridging continues to expand across the region. On Friday, the quiet conditions will remain as upper ridging continues to expand out of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
It held temperatures cooler than forecast and now temperatures were cooling over east Mississippi a little faster this evening than anticipated. Heading through the remainder of the near term, surface ridging over much of the eastern CONUS will continue to hold sway.
Models have this system digging further south ahead of an encroaching ridge.
616 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 (This evening through Friday) Upper ridging is on track to slowly amplify over the region later today and through Friday from a high poised over Baja California Sur. Water vapor imagery early this afternoon clearly shows an embedded vort max riding over this ridge in the Four Corners, yet this wave should pass to our north with little fanfare tonight. NBM looks a bit soft with highs on Friday particularly given rising heights and thicknesses under the ridge axis, so highs were nudged up a few degrees across the board.
743 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023 High pressure is expected to remain in control over the region for the next several days. An upper trough centered over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley extending southwest across the Appalachians will shift east overnight.
823 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023 High pressure remains wedged against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians.
Cool upper trough over the interior northwest will be reinforced strongly from the north Pacific Friday, effectively shifting the main trough axis to the coast and changing the flow over our CWA from westerly to warmer southwesterly. The deepening trough will condense moisture from the north Pacific and produce rain in Oregon.
931 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over Quebec. with low level ridging still holding over much of Northern Michigan. Some low clouds do remain across portions of our southern CWA in the vcnty of the meandering upper low that is trying to push eastward away from our state. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid/upper level low pressure slowly moving east across southeast lower Michigan this afternoon, with attendant much more diffused surface response detached well off to its south. A few degrees cooler tonight, with lows ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Short wave ridging builds in for Friday into Friday night leading to precipitation free conditions.
An upper level low continues to work its way east over Michigan and the eastern Great Lakes today. An attendant front is moving through the area today propelled by the passage of the upper low. Tomorrow an upper level ridge axis moves overhead and will help to keep us dry and warm.
Key Message: Quiet with fog possible Tonight, high pressure will provide the area with mostly clear skies and light winds. Friday, mostly sunny skies will be seen, as high pressure remains over the area and a warm front moves into central Iowa.
610 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be a touch warmer than yesterday as the upper-level ridge strengthens slightly over our region. Thunderstorm chances are expected to be meager under the building ridge and only a few thunderstorms are expected around the higher elevations. Heading into Friday, the nearly stationary western trough begins to dig across California. At the same time, the ridge over the southern Great Plains begins to amplify.
651 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 (This evening through Friday night) Mid level moisture will increase across the northern CWA overnight in association with a short wave trough moving out of New Mexico. Have left the forecast dry for Friday, but would not be surprised to see some isolated showers or thunderstorms Friday night as mid level moisture increases and the low level jet kicks in.
354 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring rain, heavy at times, to parts of Northeast PA and Central NY today. The Poconos and Catskills will have the highest chance for heavy rain.
1229 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (This evening through Friday) Upper ridging is on track to slowly amplify over the region later today and through Friday from a high poised over Baja California Sur. Water vapor imagery early this afternoon clearly shows an embedded vort max riding over this ridge in the Four Corners, yet this wave should pass to our north with little fanfare tonight. NBM looks a bit soft with highs on Friday particularly given rising heights and thicknesses under the ridge axis, so highs were nudged up a few degrees across the board.
The fog advisory remains north of Interstate 64 which is where the lowest visibilities have been so far this morning. After the fog begins to clear later this morning, upper ridging will continue moving east towards the Ohio Valley. Upper pattern takes on an omega block, with a deep low closing off over the Intermountain West and a weaker low meandering off the East Coast, leaving a building ridge in between extending from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Progressive northern stream wave will finally start to move the western trof around midweek, setting the stage for a late-week pattern change.
452 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 High pressure across the region will remain in control through the weekend. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 60s and with the clouds slowing cooling expect overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. The synoptic situation will be changing today as the upper level trough will be swinging through the eastern US and moving offshore this evening. With the trough moving east an upper heights rising a bit along with the heating high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer generally in the low 80s. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s with lows overnight in the upper 50s to low 60s. A persistent synoptic pattern will continue through much of the forecast period: ridging over the eastern US with a upper level troughing offshore.
340 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Water vapor imagery early this morning was showing a pronounced upper ridge centered over Missouri that the HREF continues to build over the Midwest the next 36 hours. This front is forecast to move slightly to the northeast through tomorrow, but subsidence underneath the upper ridge and weak low level forcing will keep our weather dry.
The fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise with mostly sunny and very warm conditions to follow as high pressure remains in control of our weather.