Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1120 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper low currently centered over the far southwestern TX Panhandle is quickly moving east and as such the rain out ahead of it should completely exit the CWA within the next hour or two.
(Tonight through Saturday night) The cold front was entering the southern Edwards Plateau and northern Hill Country midday and will continue southeast through the remainder of the region this afternoon and evening.
1106 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2023 Dry high pressure will remain in place today.
1111 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Today through Saturday night) Upper level low responsible for all of our precipitation over the past few days was located over the eastern Texas Panhandle. The upper low will continue to move east and will take it's wrap-around moisture with it. The low clouds and fog should start to dissipate from west to east starting around mid day.
1215 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Today and Tonight: Slightly warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the period. This was resulting in a rather dry east wind with surface dew points generally in the low to mid 30s. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low centered over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. This closed low will lift east northeast to the mid Mississippi river valley today and then north to the upper Mississippi river valley tonight. It's associated upper level trough and cold front will swing just west of our western most zones by sunrise Saturday morning.
1208 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Today and tonight) Widespread rainfall continues to shift east over OK early this morning, as the mid to upper low does the same. By tonight, skies should clear west to east and overnight lows will drop into the 20s and 30s behind the cold front.
(This evening through Saturday) The upper low that caused our late-week rain event continues to gyrate its way eastward across our area this afternoon. Northwesterly winds around 10 mph will bring in cooler air overnight, though lows should remain above normal. Cloud cover will diminish out west which will give some potential for lows to drop below freezing, but even that loses its "oomph" factor when the average low in Woodward is around 20 this time of year. Highs may also be a bit cooler in central and north central Oklahoma where some model guidance suggests cloud cover remaining through the late morning, limiting the degree of diurnal mixing.
1146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Today through Saturday Night) To begin the period, high pressure over the state begins to slide east Friday morning as an upper level trough moves into the area. The accompany trough will bring a cold front into the state by Saturday morning.
No rain is forecast through the next 24 hours (Saturday night through next Friday) Most of the longer term will be quiet with upper level ridging moving across the area.
Following widespread and persistent rainfall from this morning, rain will become more scattered in coverage through the afternoon, and will begin to taper off tonight as the low moves out over Missouri.
(Issued 140 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023) Tonight through Saturday night: An upper low swinging across the southern U.
A low pressure system will return showers to the area through Saturday.
(Through tonight ) N-S oriented band of light to moderate rain continues slowly moving east as a cutoff upper low lifts northeast across KS this afternoon.
The upper level ridge dominating northwest US weather has flattened over southern Canada and western Montana to allow some upper level cloudiness, and a northerly wind component has allowed the northern edge of the fog and stratus layer to erode, but not completely, as from the Pocatello airport to Burley in the lower elevations the clouds and fog have remained today.
1130 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Today through Saturday) Ridging influences surface and aloft will continue to provide dry condition across mid state region through tonight. Showers will begin spreading in from the west as day on Saturday progresses as ridging influences shift eastward. Highs will be a few degrees cooler, but still seasonably mild, ranging mid 50s to around 60 degrees.
1111 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Today through Saturday) Today will be just about a carbon copy of yesterday's weather with abundant sunshine, highs in the lower to middle 60s, and an east wind around 10 mph. A short wave trough over Texas will track eastward towards Alabama and bring an increase in high clouds tonight. A rather intense low pressure system will develop over the northeast Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Some of the models are showing subsidence over Alabama on the northwest side of Gulf system, which would reduce forcing along the short wave trough crossing the Mississippi River.
Discussion: Tonight, high pressure to our east will lead to mostly clear skies and near normal temps. Saturday, high pressure shifts east due to an advancing area of low pressure in the northern stream jet.
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis depicts upper low centered over northern Oklahoma/Kansas with troughing over the central US. Breezy northwest winds and slightly cooler temps will stick around through this afternoon.
1016 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2023 221 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2023 - Cold front/clipper today brings slightly cooler temperatures and breezy northwesterly winds. Upper level analysis shows upper low/highly amplified trough slowly pushing east through the Central Plains. Looking further upstream, upper level riding is building over the western third of the US; the ridge axis is centered from the SW US northward into northern ID. At the surface, a cold front extends from NE ND southward into SW ND and eastern MT. This cold front will push through the forecast area this morning with cooler temperatures and breezy northwesterly winds.
This will push a cold front through South Texas tonight. Isolated showers will continue for the rest of the evening ahead of the cold front. Coverage may increase to isolated to scattered showers along the cold front tonight, between 06Z-12Z, before diminishing behind the front.
(This evening through Saturday) Clear skies have returned to the region as low level moisture has largely been swept well to our east early this afternoon and the core of the upper low continues to accelerate east-northeastward over KS/MO.
(This evening through Saturday Night) Upper trough and the associated upper low feature across northern Oklahoma this afternoon continues to move east, as the sfc cold front and the frontal forced precip moves into the western zones of the FA.
(The rest of today ) Upper low centered near the Oklahoma/Kansas border late this morning will continue moving northeast into eastern Kansas by this evening.
328 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023 High pressure moves east and clouds move back into the region on Saturday.
Meanwhile, a series of troughs will propagate south into the Canadian Prairies.
403 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023 A strong but slowly weakening high pressure system around 1034mb centered over West Virginia still holding over the region while upper level ridge axis passes overhead. A look on the regional scale does show some precipitation across the northern Great Lakes along a cold front that is sagging southward into northern lower tonight. The front will stall over northern lower before lifting back north as a warm frontal boundary on Saturday.
535 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (This evening through Saturday) The upper low that caused our late-week rain event continues to gyrate its way eastward across our area this afternoon. Northwesterly winds around 10 mph will bring in cooler air overnight, though lows should remain above normal. Cloud cover will diminish out west which will give some potential for lows to drop below freezing, but even that loses its "oomph" factor when the average low in Woodward is around 20 this time of year. Highs may also be a bit cooler in central and north central Oklahoma where some model guidance suggests cloud cover remaining through the late morning, limiting the degree of diurnal mixing.
555 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Tonight) An upper low/trough is working its way east into the central and southern Plains. A 5h ridge axis was over the TN valley and central Gulf Coast and will shift east tonight as the low/trough progress to the lower MO valley south through east TX.
529 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Clear skies have returned to the region as low level moisture has largely been swept well to our east early this afternoon and the core of the upper low continues to accelerate east-northeastward over KS/MO.
High temperatures rise into the upper 40s to upper 50s with low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s.
815 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) Upper trough and the associated upper low feature across northern Oklahoma this afternoon continues to move east, as the sfc cold front and the frontal forced precip moves into the western zones of the FA.
531 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 - Periods of rain tonight into Saturday(60-90%) as the upper level low moves through.
At the same time, a low pressure system is moving northeast toward the region from the TX panhandle. This is especially likely for areas at elevation along Buffalo Ridge. Once you move south of I-90, however, dewpoints remain above freezing and dewpoint depressions are small (0-1 degree C) which means it's unlikely that it will cool enough to make the transition to snow. Moving on to temperatures, tonight lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s west of I-29, northwestern IA will be in the mid 30s, and southwestern MN will see lows right around freezing.
The upper flow transitions to a SW component tonight into Saturday ahead of central CONUS troughing/phasing clipper system set to bring rain chances for the latter half of the weekend.
(This evening through Saturday Night) Upper trof situated across the Plains this afternoon and its associated surface frontal boundary stretching across OK and wcntl Tx.
626 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023 High pressure moves east and clouds move back into the region on Saturday.
North to northwest winds expected to stay put, continuing to filter in cool air post cold front. Forecasted low temperatures for much of the area will see overnight temperatures bottom out around freezing with the exception of the Rio Grande Valley.
557 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) The cold front was entering the southern Edwards Plateau and northern Hill Country midday and will continue southeast through the remainder of the region this afternoon and evening.
A strong but slowly weakening high pressure system around 1034mb centered over West Virginia still holding over the region while upper level ridge axis passes overhead. A look on the regional scale does show some precipitation across the northern Great Lakes along a cold front that is sagging southward into northern lower tonight. The front will stall over northern lower before lifting back north as a warm frontal boundary on Saturday.
Meanwhile, high pressure continues across the eastern US, and the strengthening pressure gradient between the high and the Gulf low has resulted in gusty easterly winds again today. With the low developing over the Gulf, hazardous marine conditions with gusty winds and steep and very rough seas are expected to persist into Saturday morning.
An unseasonably mild afternoon is underway across the area as temperatures continue to warm into the low to mid 50s under filtered sunshine. While the low-level airmass will remain rather dry tonight, we should see a rapid top-down saturation of the column from southwest to northeast across the area early Saturday morning. Periods of a steady soaking rain will then continue through the day with temperatures likely holding steady in the low to mid 40s. The hybrid upper trough is then expected to move overhead across IL into IN Saturday night.
625 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023 Aviation - Rain Late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Night High clouds will continue to filter in over the area as pressure heights fall with the trough to the west approaching the area. The continuation of southerly flow tonight will keep lows tonight in the low to mid 30s. Saturday we'll see more moisture and warm air advection resulting in saturation from the mid levels down to the lower levels with time. The low level jet noses in during the afternoon along with positive vorticity advection providing lift with the increase moisture. Temperatures tomorrow will be a little cooler due to the increased cloud cover with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Highs on Saturday will be mostly in the lower 60s.
538 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) Upper trof situated across the Plains this afternoon and its associated surface frontal boundary stretching across OK and wcntl Tx.
Closer to home, H5 heights have been increasing over the last 24 hours due to the building ridge over much of the western half of the U. Due to the increasing heights, regional temperatures will generally be warmer than yesterday, with a few locations seeing similar afternoon highs compared to yesterday, particularly out in southeast California. Daytime highs across the lower deserts for today will range in the lower to mid-70s. Gusts of 30 mph are likely (60-70%) across the highest ridgetops with peak gusts reaching upwards of 35 mph. Persistent ridging will help keep regional H5 heights elevated, promoting unseasonably warm conditions through this weekend.
At the surface, there is a decent pressure gradient on the west side of a low pressure system over Kansas. The eastern extent of an upper level ridge will move over Colorado on Saturday.
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate to strong northerly flow aloft across the state, as an upper low continues to lift north and east across the High Plains and upper level ridging builds across the Great Basin and Intermountain West. we will see moderating northwest flow aloft, as upper level ridging continues to build into the Rockies. With mostly clear skies, drier air in place and some snow cover, over night lows to be at and below seasonal levels in the teens and 20s, save for in the single digits above and below zero across portions of the high mountain valleys. Weak downslope flow and warming aloft will help boost temperatures once again tomorrow, with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the lower elevations, and mainly in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.
545 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Through tonight ) N-S oriented band of light to moderate rain continues slowly moving east as a cutoff upper low lifts northeast across KS this afternoon.
Quiet weather continues as this mornings freezing fog has dissipated as of a couple of hours ago.
(Tonight) Surface analysis tonight continues to shows the high pressure ridge axis stretched across the TN Valley. Dry conditions in place from earlier today will begin to moderate as SE-S flow increases in the low levels helping to allow moisture advection into the CWA.
916 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023 High pressure moves east and clouds move back into the region on Saturday.
1145 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) Upper trof situated across the Plains this afternoon and its associated surface frontal boundary stretching across OK and wcntl Tx.
May see drizzle/ spotty showers hold on longer across far NE OK/ NW AR tonight closer to the upper low currently centered over E KS. (Through tonight ) N-S oriented band of light to moderate rain continues slowly moving east as a cutoff upper low lifts northeast across KS this afternoon.
Temperatures range from the low to upper 50s at all sites with increasing cloud cover across the region. The latest surface analysis places a cold front from Wichita, Kansas south through Norman, Oklahoma, and due south into the DFW Metroplex. Aloft, a large and deep upper low was churning over northeast Kansas. The aforementioned upper low is fully occluded with a cold conveyor belt over Nebraska and Kansas and a warm conveyor belt feeding moisture poleward into much of the Mississippi Valley. The upper low is expected to slowly lift north and phase with a northern stream wave over the Ohio Valley tomorrow afternoon. As it does, the cold front will advance east across the region through tomorrow evening. Temperatures are much warmer than nearly all of guidance available, likely due to the warm conveyor belt and low level WAA.
1223 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023 High pressure moves east and clouds move back into the region on Saturday.
Lows will be some 5-10 degrees above normal in the low 50s over the southwest half to low-mid 40s in the northeast half.
- Temperatures will be mainly warmer than normal over the next 7 days and beyond. A substantial trough is in place across the central CONUS this afternoon with a beautiful (in WV imagery) storm system moving into northeast Kansas and lifting northeast. Farther north, another short wave trough is dropping southeast into the Dakotas. The northwest flank of the low is showing signs of a TROWAL with deep frontogenetic circulation and even a bit of instability aloft. particularly the deep frontogenesis and TROWAL, will remain in place to the northwest and west of the upper low track. Temperatures will again be relatively warm, and do not expect much in terms of accumulating snow but a few areas could see some quick accumulation on grass or bridges.
We, at NWS HUN, will be sandwiched between two low pressure systems, a cold front and a Gulf low both moving east throughout the day. For us, the cold front currently located in the ArkLaTex region will have a much greater influence on our weather today than the aformentioned Gulf low. The cold front will be moving in to replace a high and dry air mass. Thus, mentionable rain chances of 20-40% don't arrive until around 2 PM with the highest chances in NW AL. Come sunset, the cold front will be located just to our west in Mississippi creating better forcing for more widespread rain chances (40-80%).
1055 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Tonight) Surface analysis tonight continues to shows the high pressure ridge axis stretched across the TN Valley. Dry conditions in place from earlier today will begin to moderate as SE-S flow increases in the low levels helping to allow moisture advection into the CWA.
08Z observations show a departing 557 dm upper low centered around Kansas City with subsidence occurring on the backside of the low which has led to mainly clear skies across western Kansas. Today we should be slightly warmer as we will have mainly sunny skies and west to northwest winds. The coolest temperatures will be in the east where the last influence of the upper low will keep the cooler air in place for much longer during the day.
(Today and tonight) Some stratus continues to linger along and behind the weak cold front early this morning across northern, central, and southeastern OK. Skies will slowly clear later this morning as drier air and subsidence follows the upper low moving into northern MO.
1050 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 - Periods of rain tonight into Saturday(60-90%) as the upper level low moves through.
327 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023 High pressure will extend across the middle Atlantic and Carolinas through late today, while low pressure will become better organized and track from the central Gulf of Mexico to the northern FL Atlantic coast later today and tonight.
A bit warmer temperatures are expected overnight as northeast winds remain overnight. Temperatures will remain a bit warmer where the winds remain gusty.
By this evening, the aforementioned low pressure center will move towards the FL east coast, which will decrease rain potential across our area.
1059 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (This evening through Saturday) The upper low that caused our late-week rain event continues to gyrate its way eastward across our area this afternoon. Northwesterly winds around 10 mph will bring in cooler air overnight, though lows should remain above normal. Cloud cover will diminish out west which will give some potential for lows to drop below freezing, but even that loses its "oomph" factor when the average low in Woodward is around 20 this time of year. Highs may also be a bit cooler in central and north central Oklahoma where some model guidance suggests cloud cover remaining through the late morning, limiting the degree of diurnal mixing.
300 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023 A more active pattern sets up for the next few days as troughing over the Plains shifts east.
Temperatures are running a little cooler than expected, so dropped overnight lows in the low lying locations to around zero. At the surface, there is a decent pressure gradient on the west side of a low pressure system over Kansas. The eastern extent of an upper level ridge will move over Colorado on Saturday.
From synopsis, strong high pressure across the eastern United States will maintain strong northeast to east breezes tonight. This second surge will be in association with a rapid deepening of a large low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday across the Keys, from late morning into the evening, as the low moves northeast into Central Florida.
1028 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Clear skies have returned to the region as low level moisture has largely been swept well to our east early this afternoon and the core of the upper low continues to accelerate east-northeastward over KS/MO.
Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows the near-stationary upper low that has brought rainy conditions to the area over the last day, another vorticity max digging south towards the cutoff low, and ridging over the Great Basin.
248 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 - Dry and warmer weather this weekend with high temperatures near 50 degrees across south central Nebraska and into the 50s across north central Kansas.
107 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023 Aviation - Rain Late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Night High clouds will continue to filter in over the area as pressure heights fall with the trough to the west approaching the area. The continuation of southerly flow tonight will keep lows tonight in the low to mid 30s. Saturday we'll see more moisture and warm air advection resulting in saturation from the mid levels down to the lower levels with time. The low level jet noses in during the afternoon along with positive vorticity advection providing lift with the increase moisture. Temperatures tomorrow will be a little cooler due to the increased cloud cover with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Clear skies and relatively calm winds will bring lows down to near or below freezing this morning across much of the area. Upper heights will slightly rise as a ridge centered over the Mountain West pushes out troughing to the east and builds over the forecast area.
1058 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) The cold front was entering the southern Edwards Plateau and northern Hill Country midday and will continue southeast through the remainder of the region this afternoon and evening.
Dry conditions will continue through the weekend with ridging across the Pacific Northwest.
132 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023 Moisture will return to the region today as a strong low pressure system moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and into northern FL.
619 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 (Today through Sunday) Surface observations along with radar data show the cold front has and associated light rain showers have moved southeast of the region early this morning. A good portion of the Hill Country should see a freeze tonight, with nearby cool spots along I-35 near Austin getting close to freezing.
A low pressure system will bring periods of rain to the region tonight into Sunday.
413 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2023 127 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2023 - Another clipper/cold front arrives Sunday with breezy conditions. Upper level ridging continues over the western third of the US with northwesterly flow over the Northern Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of high pressure has shifted into northeastern ND/northwestern MN.