Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
30-40 kt 700 mb winds over the W were forecast to move E through the evening as a weak cold front pushes E through the region tonight. Strong winds aloft will continue over the SW mountains, supporting gusty winds over the high elevations.
A trough off the coast of central California continues to interact with the remnants of now-post Tropical Storm Hilary. This has lead to lowering heights across interior NorCal and resultant cooler than normal temperatures. Moving into Tuesday, upper level troughing looks to retreat westward as the remaining remnants of post Tropical Storm Hilary progress northeastward. Given the orientation of the upper trough and generally southwesterly flow into the region, a slight (10-20%) chance for isolated thunderstorms will be possible, generally along and east of the Sierra crest Tuesday afternoon.
A 600 dm high pressure dome is parked over the midwest and is bringing us plenty of heat and humidity.
220 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 High pressure increases the heat and humidity through much of the work week, with a brief interruption by a moisture starved cold front late tonight.
Discussion: Strong high pressure ridge still centered over Missouri today will remain in about the same place tonight and Tuesday. It will continue to bring the region dry weather although some high clouds today have moved around the ridge and moved across the forecast area this afternoon and will continue to be moving across the eastern Tennessee Valley tonight and into Tuesday. With the ridge in about the same place Tuesday have only bumped highs up about a degree from today.
The showers are all now pretty well confined to areas north of the highway 2 corridor. The rainfall across the northern half of the FA will gradually end as forcing lifts north with expanding ridging through the daytime.
(This evening through Tuesday night) A 600-603dm ridge is still stationed over the lower Midwest/central Plains with southeasterly flow aloft. The southwestern portion of the forecast area may heat up just enough and be far enough away from the subsidence aloft associated with the beast of a ridge that some showers or thunderstorms may be able to develop this afternoon. The upper-level ridge largely stays put but weakens. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to move into southern Texas and the Panhandles will see a little improvement in overall moisture content, but the issue once again will be whether showers/storms will be able to develop. Expecting Tuesday to be 2-3 degrees cooler across much of the area.
1122 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 A cold front will bring a few light showers or sprinkles today, but otherwise mainly dry weather continues.
A shower or two could occur in the higher elevations but given the low instability and PWATS, flooding concerns remain low. Broad ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the central plains states with water vapor imagery showing very dry conditions over the central plains and extending westward to cover much of Colorado. With the high heat today and windy conditions, heat risk is higher today and will be issuing a heat advisory for portions of the plains, including the Denver area. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with an anomalous ridge of high pressure remaining centered over IA/MO Tuesday, while a trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. With above normal moisture beginning to move into western Colorado, this will bring some improvements in moisture over the high country.
Upper level high over Missouri, will slowly migrate southwestward to the Central Plains.
(Today and tonight) A sprawling and massive upper high centered over KS/MO will expand its influence a little more today over the service area. With a dome of high pressure over head, all sites will stay clear of shower and thunderstorm activity, and maintain afternoon fair weather cumulus.
(Tonight) 12z regional soundings sampled either record or seasonal high mid level heights marking the influence of the strong ridge across the southern Plains.
1155 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Warmer temperatures with an increase in humidity is in store for today along and ahead of a weak cold front that will be drifting south across the region late this morning and this afternoon.
Intense subtropical upper high remained centered near Kansas City at midday, with 600-602 dm heights. Dewpoints in the lower 70s will support heat indices as high as 109 in Barber county at peak heating. Clear and quiet again tonight under the western flank of the ridge. Medium range ensembles show a broad upper level high remaining situated across the Central Plains with the western edge draped across the high plains of western Kansas through the middle part of the week, resulting in little change to the prevailing hot/dry pattern dominating the region.
Quiet, but hot and muggy conditions expected the remainder of the afternoon with temps in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Very little change expected with broad, strong ridging anchored over the central CONUS. However, models still show a disturbance riding the ridge and crossing the region in northwesterly flow.
216 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Key points: * Intense heat slowly wanes this week * Near normal temperatures with some chance for precipitation this weekend Anomalously-high upper high remains over the central Plains early this afternoon.
307 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 A cold front will bring a few light showers or sprinkles this afternoon, but otherwise mainly dry weather continues.
Increased low level easterly flow and associated moisture has max temperatures today somewhat in check as expected, with highs so far in the low to mid 90s most locations. In the wake of this system passing off to our west, the vast area of hot, dry high pressure that has been centered to our northwest begins to pivot around to the southeast east and begin to be centered closer to our area. Given our position under the ridge and the light northerly wind the pattern suggests that dewpoints will mix out during the afternoon.
351 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 High pressure will build southeast across the Great Lakes region tonight through Tuesday night.
The focus of the highest rain amounts over the next 24 hours will be across west central Idaho and along the Highway 95 corridor then arcing across all of northwest Montana. Areas along the Highway 95 corridor and along the Continental Divide and Glacier NP will receive 1-2" of rain through Tuesday.
A sprawling 600+ decameter high pressure system centered over Missouri will result in heat headlines through the week from the Gulf Coast to the Upper Ms Valley.
Surface analysis places sprawling high pressure extending across the North Atlantic westward to the Eastern Seaboard. With the axis of the associated ridge displaced to the north near the Florida Panhandle, this is resulting in breezy conditions at times across the island chain. Temperatures should continue to climb into the lower 90s this afternoon.
1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Some of the low clouds are slowly scouring out this morning, but may take well into the afternoon for norht central SD to see any clearing. As of 2AM CDT, we've got some clouds over the majority of the region with temperatures in the high 50s to mid 60s. A ridge continues to dominate the upper level pattern through the short term period. Deterministic models show the high strengthening through the day today before starting to weaken Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures at the surface during the period will also be quite warm reaching into the low 90s in northern SD and into the low 100s in central SD. Humidity is going to make it feel even warmer, with dew points reaching into the 70s.
229 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Stratus settled in under the ridge across the north today and has led to cooler than forecast highs in north central SD. Even though max Ts are a bit cooler than expected, dewpoints in the 70s are producing high heat indices, especially in areas where skies are clear. Hot and humid conditions will continue into Tuesday with the ridge amplifying further.
Quiet, but hot and muggy conditions expected the remainder of the afternoon with temps in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Very little change expected with broad, strong ridging anchored over the central CONUS.
Overall pattern contains an upper low/trough off the coast drawing in moisture from the remnants of Hilary. High pressure builds for mid-week with a sharp rise in temperatures again.
606 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (Tonight) 12z regional soundings sampled either record or seasonal high mid level heights marking the influence of the strong ridge across the southern Plains.
Still dealing with a lot of low level moisture left around and an upper low over the Bay Area that is generating some clouds and light showers across far northwest SLO County. With Hilary out of the picture the upper level pattern will eventually return to it's previous pattern which had a trough over the Pac NW extending south into northern California and a ridge from Texas to southern California.
The latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending across southwest PA through east central OH. Very little change expected with broad, strong ridging anchored over the central CONUS.
621 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 A cold front will bring a few light showers or sprinkles this afternoon, but otherwise mainly dry weather continues.
An unsettled weather pattern is expected today with cooler temperatures, scattered showers, and even a few thunderstorms. Warmer and drier conditions return for mid week with high pressure in control. Temperatures as of 2 PM are hovering in the mid/upper 50s to mid 60s in the cooler hills. High pressure over the central CONUS will flex westward Tuesday. This building high pressure will kick off a warming and drying trend.
716 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 A cold front will bring a few light showers or sprinkles this afternoon, but otherwise mainly dry weather continues.
820 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Well above normal temperatures continue through Tuesday as a strong upper ridge builds east from the Plains.
with embedded impulses ahead of a short wave trough over central California, is driving the strong gusty winds and spotty rain cells across the region today. As Hilary becomes less distinct and shears farther downwind over the Pacific Northwest, the strong gusty winds will diminish and the High Wind Warning expired at 3 PM.
713 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 High pressure and light winds expected tonight.
Key points: * Intense heat slowly wanes this week * Near normal temperatures with some chance for precipitation this weekend Anomalously-high upper high remains over the central Plains early this afternoon.
731 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (Rest of today through Tuesday) High pressure has fixated over the central United States to start this work week. The tropical disturbance that passed south of our area has now become Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. A slot of drier air accompanied by Saharan dust will enter South Florida and reinforce the lower convective coverage.
Stratus settled in under the ridge across the north today and has led to cooler than forecast highs in north central SD. Even though max Ts are a bit cooler than expected, dewpoints in the 70s are producing high heat indices, especially in areas where skies are clear. Hot and humid conditions will continue into Tuesday with the ridge amplifying further.
734 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (This evening through Tuesday night) A 600-603dm ridge is still stationed over the lower Midwest/central Plains with southeasterly flow aloft. The southwestern portion of the forecast area may heat up just enough and be far enough away from the subsidence aloft associated with the beast of a ridge that some showers or thunderstorms may be able to develop this afternoon. The upper-level ridge largely stays put but weakens. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to move into southern Texas and the Panhandles will see a little improvement in overall moisture content, but the issue once again will be whether showers/storms will be able to develop. Expecting Tuesday to be 2-3 degrees cooler across much of the area.
These weather conditions are most likely to occur over the local waters, nearshore waters, and islands of the Lower Keys. The thunderstorm persisted in its westward movement, impacting the southern nearshore waters of the Lower Keys as well as downtown areas. The strong wind gusts have led to the issuance of a Special Marine Warning for the nearshore waters of the Lower Keys, as well as an airport weather warning. Drier air was also observed in the upper- levels, and satellite observations over the Florida Peninsula show the mid- to- upper level wind environment will shift from tropical depression generated outflow to a ridging environment tomorrow.
5" are conceivable in the higher terrain of Mono and Mineral counties, but unfortunately this likely occurred in weather station gaps. As a result, widespread agitated cumulus have developed along the higher terrain with a few maturing into brief showers, suggesting that convective initiation is imminent. Gusty west to southwest return during the latter half of the week as another upper trough approaches the West Coast.
756 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 A historically-strong mid-latitude high will ridge east and across the Carolinas through Tuesday. The high will weaken and allow a moisture starved back-door cold front to settle south across the Carolinas Tuesday night.
616 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Very strong upper level high pressure remains centered over the Missouri Valley with ridging extending over the southern High Plains and into New Mexico. Subsidence remains robust and with little movement to the ridge itself not much change is expected in our weather the next 24 hours. Of note is the tropical wave in the western Gulf of Mexico that is progged to move around the southwestern flank of the upper ridge. Models have consistently looked too far east with this feature given the strength of the ridge, and indeed models have been correcting westward with precip associated with this feature as it moves up the Rio Grande.
Another round of excessive heat is expected Tuesday as the 600 dam ridge remains parked over Missouri. For the next few days, an upper level ridge will remain anchored over Missouri leading to warmer temperatures with heat index values reaching 105F or greater.
713 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (Through Tuesday) A robust 600 DM upper level high pressure system centered over Missouri/Illinois will maintain its influence over the region tomorrow. With the region being on the eastern periphery of this upper level high pressure, much of the area will see northeasterly flow, and unseasonably warm temperatures.
530 PM MDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Above normal temperatures continue through the short term period with the upper ridge parked over the central plains.
(Rest of tonight) Another dry night ahead as high pressure aloft continues to keep dry but warming conditions in place over the Tennessee Valley.
707 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 High pressure builds southeast across the Great Lakes region tonight through Tuesday night.
924 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 A historically-strong mid-latitude high will ridge east and across the Carolinas through Tuesday. The high will weaken and allow a moisture starved back-door cold front to settle south across the Carolinas Tuesday night.
946 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 High pressure builds southeast across the Great Lakes region tonight through Tuesday night.
Moisture will diminish later in the week as a ridge retrogrades from the east.
The latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending from near LBE to ZZV. Dry advection overnight should result in lowering dew points after FROPA, with high pressure building in behind the front. Very little change expected with broad, strong ridging anchored over the central CONUS.
630 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Dry and very hot weather to continue, as upper ridging will keep a tight grip on our weather.
A warming trend is expected through the weekend as high pressure aloft over the central United States expands west over the region. Remnant moisture is still in place from now dissipated tropical cyclone Hilary, but a warming and drying trend will take place over the coming days as an upper-level high pressure system over the central United States expands west. With Hilary out of the picture the upper level pattern will eventually return to it's previous pattern which had a trough over the Pac NW extending south into northern California and a ridge from Texas to southern California.
1200 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 A cold front will bring a few light showers or sprinkles this afternoon, but otherwise mainly dry weather continues.
136 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Cooler weather today in the wake of a cold front and dry.
339 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 A backdoor cold front will move into the area from the northeast today.
145 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 A historically-strong mid-latitude high will ridge east and across the Carolinas through Tuesday. The high will weaken and allow a moisture starved back-door cold front to settle south across the Carolinas Tuesday night.
Will hold off on any heat products for now, although may eventually need one for a few of the northern and eastern Big Counties closer to the upper level ridge axis.
A more typical monsoon weather pattern will set up for the remainder of the week with daily shower and storm chances with the highest chances remaining across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona.
High pressure across central CONUS will continue to dominate keeping easterly to northeasterly winds through the week.
1159 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (Rest of tonight) Another dry night ahead as high pressure aloft continues to keep dry but warming conditions in place over the Tennessee Valley.
105 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2023 High pressure centered near the Missouri River Basins continues to extend a ridge through the CWA and northern Rockies.
WV imagery indicates a broad upper level area of high pressure remaining stretched across the Central Plains into the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. An ongoing hot and dry pattern will continue during the period with short term ensembles showing virtually no movement to the broad scale upper level high centered across the Central Plains with the western fringe draped across the Western High Plains. Prevailing southerlies ahead of a weak lee side trough anchored in eastern Colorado will continue to reinforce the warmer air mass settled across the high plains of western Kansas.
156 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 A cold front will bring a few light showers or sprinkles this afternoon, but otherwise mainly dry weather continues.
(Today and tonight) The upper ridge will continue to spin over Missouri today and tonight, but the ridge will be slightly weaker by 1-2mb and thus temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Weak convection may develop across the far southwest South Plains this afternoon with weak disturbances around the ridge.
305 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 A backdoor cold front will move into the area from the northeast today.
1237 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Very strong upper level high pressure remains centered over the Missouri Valley with ridging extending over the southern High Plains and into New Mexico. Subsidence remains robust and with little movement to the ridge itself not much change is expected in our weather the next 24 hours. Of note is the tropical wave in the western Gulf of Mexico that is progged to move around the southwestern flank of the upper ridge. Models have consistently looked too far east with this feature given the strength of the ridge, and indeed models have been correcting westward with precip associated with this feature as it moves up the Rio Grande.
356 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Well above normal temperatures continue today as a strong upper ridge builds east from the Plains.
Another warm and muggy day is in store as the massive upper level ridge core over Missouri shows little to no movement.
1218 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 (This evening through Tuesday night) A 600-603dm ridge is still stationed over the lower Midwest/central Plains with southeasterly flow aloft. The southwestern portion of the forecast area may heat up just enough and be far enough away from the subsidence aloft associated with the beast of a ridge that some showers or thunderstorms may be able to develop this afternoon. The upper-level ridge largely stays put but weakens. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to move into southern Texas and the Panhandles will see a little improvement in overall moisture content, but the issue once again will be whether showers/storms will be able to develop. Expecting Tuesday to be 2-3 degrees cooler across much of the area.
The current airmass certainly is as awful and soupy as it gets across the tristate this morning as the dangerous heat and humidity remains in place thanks to a 600 dm ridge parked over the central CONUS. The meteorology tells us "persistence" should work out pretty well again before the aformentioned ridge begins to breaks down. Blended each day a little closer to the 75th percentile as even the higher dewpoints did not stop sufficient diurnal heating from occurring yesterday.
130 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 High pressure will build over the region through Tuesday, followed by a weak boundary passing down through the region midweek. High pressure then rebuilds for the latter half of the week, with another front possible during the weekend. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Impressively large expanse of upper level high pressure will remain centered over the Central Plains/mid Mississippi River Valley region through midweek with 591+ DM heights stretched across southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia.
1233 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 (Tonight) 12z regional soundings sampled either record or seasonal high mid level heights marking the influence of the strong ridge across the southern Plains.
307 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 A historically-strong mid-latitude high will ridge east and across the Carolinas through Tuesday. The high will weaken and allow a moisture starved back-door cold front to settle south across the Carolinas Tuesday night.
Strong upper ridge over the plains will continue to influence conditions over the eastern half of the forecast area today, pushing temperatures into the 90s and keeping precipitation at bay. From Billings to the west, the area will be on the eastern edge of the Monsoonal/remnants of Hilary moisture fetch, and cooler air aloft (better instability).
219 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Well above normal temperatures continue through Tuesday as a strong upper ridge builds east from the Plains.
206 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Above normal temperatures continue through the short term period with the upper ridge parked over the central plains.
1039 PM MDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Above normal temperatures continue through the short term period with the upper ridge parked over the central plains.
A large and nearly stationary ridge over the central US will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the TN Valley today and tonight. Temperatures today should be similar to yesterday, perhaps a degree or two higher as a mid/upper ridge axis will extend across the area. Forecast highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
/NEW/ /Overnight through Tuesday night/ The heat will stay with us through the week but increased cloud cover associated with TD 9 will likely keep most of our Central Texas counties a touch cooler on Tuesday than the past few days. Highs Tuesday will still be hot (101-107), but as mentioned above, it will be a few degrees cooler across Central Texas.
/Issued 1145 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023/ /Overnight through Tuesday night/ The heat will stay with us through the week but increased cloud cover associated with TD 9 will likely keep most of our Central Texas counties a touch cooler on Tuesday than the past few days. Highs Tuesday will still be hot (101-107), but as mentioned above, it will be a few degrees cooler across Central Texas.