Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1102 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 An expansive high pressure ridge will maintain control over our weather through midweek. An upper level ridge building over the region will supply fair and hot weather Monday and Tuesday. Ensemble mean 850mb temps around 20C supports highs from the mid and upper 80s over the Alleghenies and in the mid 90s across the Lower Susq Valley.
Models, including the high resolution versions all have it ended by 06Z. For Monday, the main upper trof now entering the Great Basin will weaken and lift rapidly across the Northern Rockies with trailing trof moving across Northern Colorado during Monday afternoon. There will also be drier and more subsident airmass moving into the mountains as the trof sweeps across the region. Combining this moisture with weak MLCAPE between 200-300 J/kg and large DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg should lead to isolated gusty storms mainly in the northern foothills and along the Cheyenne Ridge.
(Today) Broad upper low centered over far north TX will steadily track NNE across the forecast area today.
125 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Forecast remains on track as the East-Northeast flow slowly weakens, while weak high pressure at the surface builds into inland SE GA.
Ridgetop locations are still holding in the low to mid 70s at this time, while some valley locations have dropped off into the mid 60s so far. The dome of high pressure is forecast to shift off to the southeast toward the Mid-Atlantic through the day Monday.
1259 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will remain over the area through the first half of this week with dry weather.
An upper low is spinning over north Texas and generating some mid to high level cloud cover across our eastern counties. It will be warmer tonight compared to this morning with breezy south-southeasterly winds advecting moisture into the area.
1224 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) Tonight will have an upper low along the Red River separating the ridge over W TX from the ridge over the SE States. While this is occurring a trough will move over ID/NV. This trough will swing over WY/MT Monday while the TX low opens up and moves into AR/MO Warmer lows tonight with 70s across the Permian Basin and generally 60s elsewhere. Lows Monday night a couple degrees warmer than tonight.
A weak system will move through the area into tonight for increased light rain and cooler temperatures. Onshore flow with cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
(Today and tonight) The region will be situated under an upper level ridge this afternoon while an upper level low well off to the northeast helps reinforce drier mid-level northeasterly flow. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the lower 90s.
However, looking at yesterday afternoon's observations to our southwest, these areas mixed out to the upper 60s to lower 70s, rather than maintaining the low level moisture. Key Messages: 1) Heat continues Tuesday before a cold front sweeps through.
There is a chance to likely probability for southwest Oregon late tonight through Monday morning, tapering to a slight chance (mainly for the higher terrain of the Umpqua Divide and the southern Oregon Cascades) Monday afternoon. The broad, closed upper low is finally exiting our area this evening, with the next, much faster moving trough arriving from the northwest.
403 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Warm and muggy conditions are expected through the middle part of this week as high pressure settles over the region.
(Now through Monday) Our "cooler" and slightly soggier pattern will be coming to an end on Monday. The upper level low that has been slowly progressing westward across the northern Gulf will make its final move into Texas. High pressure will begin to build into the area leading to a reduction in rain chances across most of the area.
(Today through Tuesday) Generally dry and quiet weather will prevail for the foreseeable future as high pressure builds and dry air overspreads the area. Temperatures will continue to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon during the short term, but with the lower dew points, heat indices will remain in the low to mid 90s as the week progresses.
- Slight risk for severe storms across much of the area Tuesday afternoon ahead of the cold front. Another day of heat is upon us as ridging remains. Ahead of the cold front, western Minnesota will heat into the mid to upper 80s before relief arrives. Tuesday night, the relief spreads eastward with the passage of a cold front.
Because of the juxtaposition of this disturbance beneath a 593 dam ridge, weak mid-level subsidence and radiational cooling have allowed for moisture to pool in the overnight hours. Our trough will be picked up by a more amplified low ejecting into the upper Midwest and move back east. However, during this time, lee troughing will increase winds through the region into Tuesday morning.
1007 PM PDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Cooler and breezy weather continues into Monday, with showers and embedded thunderstorms. As an upper low over northern California shifts east, it's replaced by a northwest flow over the region.
- A cold front will move through late Tuesday. The upper level ridge will push off to our east Tuesday as a surface cold front and associated upper level trough approach from the Dakotas. Guidance is in good agreement that the upper trough will move through mid-week. There will be a modest increase in moisture and sfc dew points along the cold front.
(Today and Tonight) Upper troughing will persist with a weak impulse crossing through NorCal. High temperatures should range from the mid 60s to mid 70s for the coastal and bayside areas with 70s to mid 80s for the typically warmer inland spots.
120 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Clouds and light southerly winds were keeping it a little warmer than expected. Tweaked hourly values to account for the slightly warmer temperatures this evening. For the Labor Day holiday, we'll see much of the same, with development again expected to be focused moreso west of the I-55 corridor, nearer the influence of the pesky mid/upper low and away from surface ridging situated to our east. But with the highest rain chances largely coinciding with these areas and duration expected to be fairly short, we will continue to leave heat stress concerns out of the HWO as of now.
Higher PoPs expected heading into Labor Day as the quasistationary upper low over northeastern Texas opens up and the trof axis pushes across the region. This should keep afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices in check. Scattered convection will develop again Tuesday afternoon, but the trof axis will be east of the area by this point so storms will be more diurnally driven within the broad weakness aloft and still substantial low and mid level moisture.
Heaviest rain will occur mainly over the higher terrain across the west today and the northwest and north tomorrow. These areas could see 1 to 2 inches of rain, with locally up to 3 inches possible, mainly in the higher terrain, through Tuesday. As the low slides northeastward, showers and thunderstorms become more widespread across the region tonight and especially by Monday morning. Least chances will be across eastern Sweetwater County and Natrona County as well as the lower Wind River Basin. The low quickly lifts out Tuesday and rain will end everywhere by sunset Tuesday. This system will bring cooler temperatures with it, so starting tomorrow, expect temperatures across the region to be 10 to even 15 degrees below normal.
154 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Hot temperatures will develop over the next few days as deep high pressure sits across the Southeast.
Approaching trough moving into the Northern Plains is leading to an increasing pressure gradient across the central plains with stronger southerly winds expected today into Tuesday.
High pressure will be over the area through Tonight. The east coast sea breeze will push well inland this afernoon, leading to cooler temperature readings at area beaches.
1144 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Ridgetop locations are still holding in the low to mid 70s at this time, while some valley locations have dropped off into the mid 60s so far. The dome of high pressure is forecast to shift off to the southeast toward the Mid-Atlantic through the day Monday.
Upper heights will begin to weaken slightly in response but the ridge will remain sufficiently strong to keep conditions dry while also producing highs around 90 this afternoon in the valley. Dry conditions continue tonight into Tuesday morning, with overnight lows expected to be slightly warmer thanks to increasing cloud cover and warmer conditions in general.
347 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will prevail until late week when a cold front will move into the area. High pressure still predominant over the area today with dry conditions through the day. The Piedmont trough may push into the farthest NW reaches of our area later in the day. Highs near normal in the lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The upper low over North Texas will open into a trough and lift northeast across eastern Oklahoma today. Our area will be on the northeastern periphery of an upper ridge, extending from the Baja region east across much of Mexico. This to occur as an upper trough over the western CONUS moves east into the central Rockies today. Temperatures tonight will be warmer, and it will feel more humid by morning. The higher wind speeds tonight will be across the Big Country.
Overall thermal profile hasn't changed much, but with weaker surface winds limiting near surface mixing, afternoon highs may peak a bit cooler than yesterday. Despite the 500 hPa ridge axis moving east into the Ohio River Valley on Labor Day, the low-level thermal profile does not change much with the NBM 25th to 75th percentiles tightly clustered around the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. A strong Pacific trough and surface cold front move across the region on Tuesday. Temperatures Tuesday will be highly dependent on speed of the cold front, but generally expect afternoon highs to range from the upper 70s west of the James River to near 90 degrees across parts of northwest IA.
1227 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Heat increases on Labor Day with a medium chance for heat index values above 110 across the southern Coastal Bend The thinking behind the short term forecast remains unchanged with temperatures a few degrees warmer on Labor Day as the 500 hPa cutoff low begins to lift northeast.
(Today through Tuesday) High pressure slides a touch to the east today and will allow a more southerly flow to develop over the area.
The system will be moved along by a large trough approaching from the Rockies/Plains. Moisture/daytime heating will yield scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with the highest chances of rain in quite some time. As the period ends, and as the aforementioned trough arrives from the west, a cold front will begin pushing into the northern counties.
148 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will remain over the area through the first half of this week with dry weather.
(Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat this afternoon with heat index values 110 to 114 - Isolated rain/thunderstorm chances possible over the Victoria Crossroads As a mid-level low moves further off to the northeast today this will allow for high pressure to begin building back in over the region.
(Now through Tuesday) An upper low over eastern Texas/eastern Oklahoma breaks down to an open wave today and slowly lifts off across the lower/mid Mississippi River valley on Tuesday, with a weak portion of the upper trof moving into the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. An upper ridge over much of the eastern states meanwhile weakens somewhat and is deflected eastward. Highs today will be around 90 into the lower 90s, then highs on Tuesday will be in the lower 90s. Lows tonight range from the upper 60s inland to the lower/mid 70s closer to the coast.
The cold front that brought in cooler temperatures yesterday has moved out of our area and high temperatures today are expected to warm into the mid 80's.
Still on the cool side today with 90 percent chance of mid 80s or cooler in the interior valleys. As the upper level low moves off to the east, the northerly winds will continue to redevelop from south to north.
Low pressure that was responsible for bringing moderate rainfall to north-central Idaho and southwest Montana in the last 24 hours will push off to the east this morning. Warmer southwest flow will allow for moderate of temperatures from Tuesday onwards.
Today and Tonight: A slow moving trough responsible for showery conditions over the Western U.
915 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will lead to another day of warm and dry conditions. A cooler and drier airmass will then settle into the region through the end of the week.
230 AM PDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Warmer and drier weather this week with temperatures returning to near normal around mid-week. Other than some clouds lingering over the northern mountains, skies have cleared out across the region as the upper trough has shifted east. Current temperatures are cooler compared to 24 hours ago and are mainly in the upper 30s and 40s in the mountains, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the Central Valley. Warmer and drier weather is forecast this week with temperatures warming around 10-15 degrees today over the mountains, and only a few degrees across the Central Valley.
Previous Discussion: Eastern CONUS ridging will amplify across the Great Lakes tonight into tonight. With dew points pushing 70 degrees, sticky/muggy conditions are expected for Labor Day with heat indices in the low-to-mid 90s. Continued eastern CONUS ridge building with axis directly overhead means Tuesday will likely be the warmest day of the week. Most of the forecast area outside of the Laurel highlands and ridges have a high probability of reaching 90F.
A fall-like storm system will translate east across the state today bringing much cooler temperatures while maintaining unsettled conditions over primarily northern Utah.
522 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will remain over the area through the first half of this week with dry weather.
353 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Satellite imagery shows the low is moving through the Great Basin centered about over Elko NV tracking east. The jetstreak associated with the upper-level low is starting to shift to the eastern flank to turn the trough motion more to the northeast across northern Utah into southern Wyoming by late this afternoon. With the upper-level support, some of these storms may move over the lower valleys, but the rain totals look to be on the low end as these storms will move quickly ahead of the frontal boundary. cooler temperatures to the north. High pressure will be expanding across the Southwest CONUS border from midweek onward and effectively cutting off the monsoon source region.
(Today through Tuesday) High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue across the CWA through today. The upper ridge will begin to shift offshore on Tuesday, but high pressure at the surface will remain.
330 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Today through Tuesday: The short term focus is on developments related to incoming smoke behind a cold front and thunderstorms this afternoon/tonight. The main concern lies from about 3-9pm as upper-level support and shear with initiating convection primarily over the higher terrain of southern Montana clips this area as it tracks northeast, potentially forming a line. Finally, a climatologically favored scenario for elevated north winds higher than most guidance behind the cold front this afternoon justified a low-end Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake.
625 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023 (Today through Tuesday) A mid/upper level low over north TX/OK will eject northeastward today and eventually be ingested into the polar jet stream over the Midwest Region overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. As this occurs mid/upper-level ridging will build in and set up across much of the southwestern US region and stretch over South Texas. A building ridge aloft will keep unseasonably hot temperatures (for early September) for the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas.
740 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Warm and muggy conditions are expected through the middle part of this week as high pressure settles over the region.
One more day of heat today with increasing southerly flow and hot temps aloft (around +30C at 850mb) out ahead of the approaching frontal boundary and low pressure system. Also, will be seeing much cooler air moving in with 850mb temps dipping below +10C during the afternoon. Most of the focus in this period will be on temperatures as our area is poised to see cooler readings compared to what we've been used to lately.
Water vapor imagery highlights a trough-ridge-trough triplet across the southern Plains and the western North Atlantic. The low level anticyclone centered over the Southeast maintains fresh easterly breezes across the Florida Keys. The Lower Keys were the favored alleyway around sunrise, while the most recent KBYX radar scans place the best coverage across the western end of Vaca Key into the Gulf side waters of the Lower Keys. A high pressure cell centered over the southeastern United States will help to maintain moderate to occasionally fresh easterly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters today through Tuesday.
Meteorological Discussion: An open wave turning to a closed low will pass over northeastern Colorado throughout the short term forecast period (6am Monday - 6am Tuesday). Wind gusts ranging from 25 to 35 mph will develop over the majority of the region and relative humidity values of less than 15% will be present over the plains, therefore a Red Flag Warning is in effect over Pueblo, Crowley, Otero, Baca, and the lower elevations of Huerfano and Las Animas Counties.
718 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will be over the area through Tonight. The east coast sea breeze will push well inland this afternoon, leading to cooler temperature readings at area beaches.
The upper level trough that is changing our upper level flow from a wetter southerly to drier westerly flow is currently making its way through northern Arizona/southern Utah. By mid-week, the upper high reconsolidates over the Arizona/New Mexico border.
658 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will remain over the area through the first half of this week with dry weather.
A trough moving quickly through the Great Basin today will drag a shallow moisture boundary through our northwestern zones this morning, with a few light showers possible through 18Z. After the trough axis moves through, we are stuck in dry southwesterly flow aloft and rising heights through the rest of this forecast period.
951 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will prevail until late week when a cold front will move into the area. High pressure still predominant over the area today with dry conditions through the day. The Piedmont trough may push into the farthest NW reaches of our area later in the day. Highs near normal in the lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
628 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will prevail until late week when a cold front will move into the area. High pressure still predominant over the area today with dry conditions through the day. The Piedmont trough may push into the farthest NW reaches of our area later in the day. Highs near normal in the lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
632 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023 (Today) Broad upper low centered over far north TX will steadily track NNE across the forecast area today.
641 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Today and Tonight: An upper-level low pressure system (seen spinning over the TX/OK Red River on water vapor satellite imagery) should fill and become absorbed by the broader flow pattern over the CONUS heading into tonight. With high pressure aloft and at the surface in the Southeast US, southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico will keep PWAT values around 2. 0 inches through the Lower Mississippi River Valley today. There is some flow aloft around this low pressure system, and effective shear values around 20 kts could support some organization in lines or clusters of storms through this evening.
721 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Generally dry and quiet weather will prevail for the foreseeable future as high pressure builds and dry air overspreads the area. Temperatures will continue to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon during the short term, but with the lower dew points, heat indices will remain in the low to mid 90s as the week progresses.
Early this morning, a weak, closed, mid/upper level low was centered over southeast OK, and was in the process of opening up and getting absorbed into the eastern side of a larger trough lifting northeastward out of the western CONUS. Meanwhile, ridging/high pressure at all levels was situated from the Great Lakes south over KY to the eastern gulf. By Tuesday evening the trough advancing from the western CONUS will be over the northern plains, and the weak upper low will have devolved into an open wave from Lake Michigan to MS. Our ridging will have shifted slightly east over the Appalachians. Moisture riding north between the wave to our west and the ridge to our east will result in an increase in clouds for our local area, mainly over our western counties tonight and Tuesday.
(Today through Tuesday) A mid/upper level low over north TX/OK will eject northeastward today and eventually be ingested into the polar jet stream over the Midwest Region overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. As this occurs mid/upper-level ridging will build in and set up across much of the southwestern US region and stretch over South Texas. A building ridge aloft will keep unseasonably hot temperatures (for early September) for the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas.
Incoming air trajectories are rooted in highly modified continental air along the southern periphery of a high pressure cell centered along the southeastern coast of the United States. On the large scale, a deep layer mean anticyclone has moved little during the last 24 hours, centered over the Florida Panhandle, but with ridging building northward. This high pressure area is not especially impressive, but decent synoptic-scale gradient flow has developed locally thanks to the climatological mean sea level pressure over a large area of the western Caribbean Sea. A period of breezier conditions should gradually end as the high pressure cell currently centered over the southeastern U.
329 AM PDT Mon Sep 4 2023 The radar is clear of showers this morning, but surface stations have been reporting some light drizzle as a weak surface boundary, or perhaps a cold front, pushes southwards.
Very warm airmass and airmass capped to surface convection near and ahead of cold front which will be moving east and reach roughly near a Devils Lake area near 20z and then roughly near a Roseau to Grand Forks to Jamestown line at 00z-01z. Soundings indicate about a 1700-2200 j/kg MUCAPE environment just ahead of the front where temps will be in the low 90s and dew pts into the upper 60s.
700 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 (Today and tonight) The region will be situated under an upper level ridge this afternoon while an upper level low well off to the northeast helps reinforce drier mid-level northeasterly flow. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the lower 90s.
842 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will remain over the area through the first half of this week with dry weather.
537 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Satellite imagery shows the low is moving through the Great Basin centered about over Elko NV tracking east. The jetstreak associated with the upper-level low is starting to shift to the eastern flank to turn the trough motion more to the northeast across northern Utah into southern Wyoming by late this afternoon. With the upper-level support, some of these storms may move over the lower valleys, but the rain totals look to be on the low end as these storms will move quickly ahead of the frontal boundary. cooler temperatures to the north. High pressure will be expanding across the Southwest CONUS border from midweek onward and effectively cutting off the monsoon source region.