Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As alluded to in the previous discussion, will see a fairly pronounced trough deepen across the Rockies during this time. While the better dynamics and moisture remain focused closer to the upper level low, do think it's worth noting that a few CAMs also show another wave just to our northwest progged to move closer to our area by daybreak Saturday. Heading into Saturday, the aforementioned upper level low will lift northeastward across the central CONUS. Expect quiet conditions and slightly cooler temperature to prevail as we finish off the weekend.
As of now, grids reflect this process beginning at some point late Saturday morning, but current satellite observations depict partial clearing in the farthest south portion of the forecast area announcing the ridge's leading edge.
There have been some breaks in the cloud cover noted on GOES 16 imagery near the WI/MI stateline and further north over Lake Superior where a drier airmass building in has taken advantage of the lower fetch of the lake's influence. For the remainder of the afternoon, upstream dry air continues to build across the lake and mid-level ridging approaches, which should contribute to further diminishing shower activity.
Have also issued an SPS for counties over the higher terrain area of the Sisseton Hills. A few webcams support locally dense fog, as well as the potential for freezing drizzle. Given this, decided to stick with the fog/low clouds/freezing drizzle for eastern areas during the overnight. Soundings are still somewhat supportive of freezing drizzle in the Glacial Lakes region eastward at least through 06Z tonight. This translates into near normal temperatures, periods of light winds with low clouds and/or overnight fog, occasional opportunities for light precipitation (above average uncertainty on placement and timing), and periods of breezy conditions with cold frontal passages.
428 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 High pressure builds into the area through tomorrow.
523 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Main issues remain if we get another round of freezing drizzle tonight or flurries if anything. Wrapped up upper low continues to move through southern Manitoba towards Lake of the Woods. There is not much freezing drizzle left here in the Red River Valley, but still reporting some up in Winnipeg. Do not think we will completely clear out, but model soundings show some decrease in the low level saturated layer. Strong upper level ridging over the high plains will result in temperatures warming across the region through the weekend. A split flow regime remains in place with a deep upper level trof over the Four Corners region, and the northern stream remaining across the Canadian provinces.
The low stratus clouds are expected to remain over the rest of the area through the overnight hours before gradually scattering out Saturday morning as the upper ridge builds in overhead. As of now, grids reflect this process beginning at some point late Saturday morning, but current satellite observations depict partial clearing in the farthest south portion of the forecast area announcing the ridge's leading edge.
506 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Temperatures are a fair bit warmer this afternoon compared to yesterday thanks to abundant sunshine and southerly winds. Western portions of the region can expect morning low temperatures below freezing, while areas further east fall into the 30s. With northwesterly winds across the region, temperatures are going to be cooler on Saturday. Most locations see low temperatures below freezing. Portions of the northern Permian Basin and higher terrain may even fall into the low 20s and upper teens.
941 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 Cloudy skies will persist tonight in the moist flow behind low pressure. High pressure will then briefly build into the Ohio Valley for Saturday.
433 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 As low pressure continues to push east of our region tonight, surface and upper level ridging will begin to build into our area and remain for Saturday.
On the other hand, chances of rain increase through the day for SRQ/LAL/PIE/TPA, as warm front lifts north. Slightly cooler conditions will be seen today and tomorrow compared to yesterday with highs this afternoon reaching into the middle to upper 70s for most, with a few 80s in SWFL.
225 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2023 High pressure at the surface is enabling sunny skies over most of the forecast areas this afternoon. The upper analysis shows a relatively weak upper trough dropping southeastward out of Saskatchewan, extending southward and becoming in sync with a broad upper low over the four corners region in the southwestern CONUS.
532 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 (This evening through Saturday) A mid-level trough will move eastward across the KS/OK border Saturday. At the surface, a cyclone is expected to deepen and move eastward across central Oklahoma. Precipitation is possible along the back side of this surface cyclone, where northerly winds and upper-level support will reside. Surface temperatures will stay above freezing, so chance of winter precipitation for the rest of the area is near zero with this system.
235 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2023 AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: The upper level low rounding out the Four Corners region will continue to lift to the northwest with a ridge building in over the northwest US and western Canada. Meanwhile, two troughs over the Gulf of Alaska and the Aleutians will move toward the Alaskan Peninsula. By Saturday, the eastern most trough will move onshore in British Columbia, and accelerated to the southeast as the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska builds. This trough begins to split over Idaho, with the southern portion forming into a closed- low and moving toward the Four Corners.
700 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Added patchy freezing drizzle through midnight tonight to account for reports we have been receiving. Main issues remain if we get another round of freezing drizzle tonight or flurries if anything. Wrapped up upper low continues to move through southern Manitoba towards Lake of the Woods. There is not much freezing drizzle left here in the Red River Valley, but still reporting some up in Winnipeg. Do not think we will completely clear out, but model soundings show some decrease in the low level saturated layer. Strong upper level ridging over the high plains will result in temperatures warming across the region through the weekend. A split flow regime remains in place with a deep upper level trof over the Four Corners region, and the northern stream remaining across the Canadian provinces.
Forecast highlight in the short term period will be the low level clouds and fog finally scouring out. This pressure pattern results in a westerly wind across western and central North Dakota, and is helping to scour out the low level stratus and fog. Currently we are clear of the low clouds west and across much of the north. If current trends/clearing hold, we should see most of the low stratus moving out of central North Dakota by late this afternoon/early this evening at the latest. For tonight, open wave mid level trough will push southeast across the Dakotas. Should see plenty of sunshine once the open wave trough and associated cloud cover moves off to our south.
Low pressure system associated with the boundary should push warm front over the area on Saturday. Afternoon highs are also expected to be cooler but cloud coverage will be the main determining factor. On the other hand, chances of rain increase through the day for SRQ/LAL/PIE/TPA, as warm front lifts north.
843 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Updated the forecast to issue another dense fog advisory, this time for eastern SD, or along the higher terrain area of the Sisseton Hills. Have also issued an SPS for counties over the higher terrain area of the Sisseton Hills. A few webcams support locally dense fog, as well as the potential for freezing drizzle. Given this, decided to stick with the fog/low clouds/freezing drizzle for eastern areas during the overnight. Soundings are still somewhat supportive of freezing drizzle in the Glacial Lakes region eastward at least through 06Z tonight. This translates into near normal temperatures, periods of light winds with low clouds and/or overnight fog, occasional opportunities for light precipitation (above average uncertainty on placement and timing), and periods of breezy conditions with cold frontal passages.
545 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 (This evening through Saturday) An upper level low centered over northeastern Arizona early this afternoon will move to the east-northeast to northeastern New Mexico at midnight tonight and then along the Kansas-Oklahoma state line southwest of Wichita by the end of day Saturday. Behind the departing lift surface winds will veer to the west and northwest behind a Pacific cold front.
650 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 As low pressure continues to push east of our region tonight, surface and upper level ridging will begin to build into our area and remain for Saturday.
A cold air mass and clearing skies will result in cold mornings through the weekend with widespread sub-freezing temperatures.
522 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Southeasterly winds have picked up this afternoon as a low pressure system continues to strengthen over the Rockies. An associated cold front will move through west central Texas by tomorrow evening. The moisture depth looks to be shallow with dry air in the low levels, so rain chances will be next to nothing. Given the influx of cloud cover and higher dewpoints, low temperatures should remain in the low to mid 40s tonight. The coldest air with this system should remain well to the northwest across the Panhandle so high temperatures look to reach the low to mid 60s.
633 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 Cloudy skies will persist tonight in the moist flow behind low pressure. High pressure will then briefly build into the Ohio Valley for Saturday.
453 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2023 High pressure at the surface is enabling sunny skies over most of the forecast areas this afternoon. The upper analysis shows a relatively weak upper trough dropping southeastward out of Saskatchewan, extending southward and becoming in sync with a broad upper low over the four corners region in the southwestern CONUS.
Sunny skies prevail around the Bay Area and Central Coast this afternoon thanks to high pressure and lingering offshore flow.
1058 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Southeasterly winds have picked up this afternoon as a low pressure system continues to strengthen over the Rockies. An associated cold front will move through west central Texas by tomorrow evening. The moisture depth looks to be shallow with dry air in the low levels, so rain chances will be next to nothing. Given the influx of cloud cover and higher dewpoints, low temperatures should remain in the low to mid 40s tonight. The coldest air with this system should remain well to the northwest across the Panhandle so high temperatures look to reach the low to mid 60s.
1049 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2023 High pressure at the surface is enabling sunny skies over most of the forecast areas this afternoon. The upper analysis shows a relatively weak upper trough dropping southeastward out of Saskatchewan, extending southward and becoming in sync with a broad upper low over the four corners region in the southwestern CONUS.
1028 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 Cooler and drier weather will continue through Saturday afternoon with rain spreading into the CSRA in the evening and rapidly spreading to the northern Midlands by midnight.
Added patchy freezing drizzle through midnight tonight to account for reports we have been receiving. Main issues remain if we get another round of freezing drizzle tonight or flurries if anything. Wrapped up upper low continues to move through southern Manitoba towards Lake of the Woods. There is not much freezing drizzle left here in the Red River Valley, but still reporting some up in Winnipeg. Do not think we will completely clear out, but model soundings show some decrease in the low level saturated layer. Strong upper level ridging over the high plains will result in temperatures warming across the region through the weekend. A split flow regime remains in place with a deep upper level trof over the Four Corners region, and the northern stream remaining across the Canadian provinces.
911 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 (Issued 911 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023) With clouds holding strong over southern WI tonight, I had to raise our forecast min temperatures into the lower to mid 20s rather than the teens. Winds will be fairly light tonight as high pressure moves in.
As of this morning, an area of high pressure was beginning to build into the region from the northwest. At the same time, a weak region of troughing aloft was swinging down from SK as well.
310 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the northern plains which heads east into upper Great Lakes by this evening.
1021 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Temperatures are a fair bit warmer this afternoon compared to yesterday thanks to abundant sunshine and southerly winds. Western portions of the region can expect morning low temperatures below freezing, while areas further east fall into the 30s. With northwesterly winds across the region, temperatures are going to be cooler on Saturday. Most locations see low temperatures below freezing. Portions of the northern Permian Basin and higher terrain may even fall into the low 20s and upper teens.
1032 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Temperatures are a fair bit warmer this afternoon compared to yesterday thanks to abundant sunshine and southerly winds. Western portions of the region can expect morning low temperatures below freezing, while areas further east fall into the 30s. With northwesterly winds across the region, temperatures are going to be cooler on Saturday. Most locations see low temperatures below freezing. Portions of the northern Permian Basin and higher terrain may even fall into the low 20s and upper teens.
1042 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 (This evening through Saturday) An upper level low centered over northeastern Arizona early this afternoon will move to the east-northeast to northeastern New Mexico at midnight tonight and then along the Kansas-Oklahoma state line southwest of Wichita by the end of day Saturday. Behind the departing lift surface winds will veer to the west and northwest behind a Pacific cold front.
High pressure was located over the Mid-Mississippi Valley early this morning with a warm front moving eastward along the International Border. Low stratus was prevalent over the region with areas of light flurries and freezing drizzle underneath the low clouds. Forecast soundings across the area show the area of low level saturation below the DGZ, so expecting freezing drizzle to be the dominant p-type this morning as the warm front moves through this morning.
214 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the northern plains which heads east into upper Great Lakes by this evening.
Updated the forecast to issue another dense fog advisory, this time for eastern SD, or along the higher terrain area of the Sisseton Hills. Have also issued an SPS for counties over the higher terrain area of the Sisseton Hills. A few webcams support locally dense fog, as well as the potential for freezing drizzle. Given this, decided to stick with the fog/low clouds/freezing drizzle for eastern areas during the overnight. Soundings are still somewhat supportive of freezing drizzle in the Glacial Lakes region eastward at least through 06Z tonight. This translates into near normal temperatures, periods of light winds with low clouds and/or overnight fog, occasional opportunities for light precipitation (above average uncertainty on placement and timing), and periods of breezy conditions with cold frontal passages.
These high clouds are associated with on-going precipitation ahead of an upper level trough approaching the central CONUS. As the trough meanders eastward into Saturday night and isentropic lift increases as southerly 850mb flow amplifies, precipitation chances will increase in response. Yesterday's afternoon highs ran a little warmer than forecast so followed the trend and bumped up values just a tad from the NBM.
A large low pressure system off the New England coast continues to drive east northeastward out into the Atlantic. The southern periphery of this low was able to reach only as far south as northern Florida. As a result the associated cold front is expected to hangup across Central Florida.
1245 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 Cooler and drier weather will continue through Saturday afternoon with rain spreading into the CSRA in the evening and rapidly spreading to the northern Midlands by midnight.
1114 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 (This evening through Saturday) A mid-level trough will move eastward across the KS/OK border Saturday. At the surface, a cyclone is expected to deepen and move eastward across central Oklahoma. Precipitation is possible along the back side of this surface cyclone, where northerly winds and upper-level support will reside. Surface temperatures will stay above freezing, so chance of winter precipitation for the rest of the area is near zero with this system.
402 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 Today and Tonight: Local radars are already lit up this morning with rain tracking east across the Highway 84 corridor. The closed low will open up today as it tracks northeast across Oklahoma and then the Mid Mississippi valley tonight as an open trough. Our normal highs run from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s southeast.
533 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 (Today) Higher clouds are currently filtering into our area from the West and will continue to increase in coverage and density throughout this morning and into the afternoon as high pressure gets shoved eastward and out of the South. High temperatures today are forecast to hit the low to mid 50s before dropping back into the low 40s tonight, landing the lows roughly 10 degrees above climatological normal values for this time of year.
Cold mornings this weekend with widespread sub-freezing low temperatures.
A trough is forecast to swing through the central CONUS this weekend. The coastal low, on the other hand, will strengthen on preexisting land-sea thermal contrasts and favorable jet dynamics as the trough picks it up and carries it along the Atlantic coast. The Rocky Mountain low will evolve into a wave riding on the trough axis.
Will still be a few hours before the snow begins to accumulate over all the roads as MRMS probability of sub freezing roads is along and north of a Trego to Syracuse line at this hour. Still , snow now falling along the highway 400 corridor where roads are covered east to Garden at 2 am. MRMS SPR/SPT also showing best rates up along the highway 4 corridor around and based on SPT, cold stratiform trying to turn over to snow even in the south where its more scattered. Models all are really in good agreement for highs in the low 30s this afternoon, followed by teens out west tonight after the system exits. Single digits in the Ark valley west of Dodge City are entirely possible as well looking at the lower probability NBM bins.
Clear sky conditions and generally light winds prevail over the region this morning as high pressure builds in from the eastern Pacific.
Areas west of I-29 may actually see some sunshine this afternoon bringing their afternoon highs up into the lower 30s, while the rest of the area will remain socked in with stratus and patchy fog keeping temperatures in the mid 20s. In between two longwave amplified troughs, one lifting towards the east coast and the other digging down the western CONUS, look for upper level ridging to take place across the area leading to partly sunny skies.
Right now does not look like much to write home about, and with temperatures remaining near or above freezing little or no accumulation is likely.
411 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2023 Closed low over southeast Colorado early this morning and this feature will track into Kansas this afternoon. Despite large scale subsidence moving in this afternoon, the flow aloft will be straight northerly as high pressure builds in from the Northern Rockies through tonight.
Most of the day will remain dry as an area of high pressure slides to our south and east. Tonight a weak inverted trough will deliver a glancing blow of QPF to southern WI.
521 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 Today and Tonight: Local radars are already lit up this morning with rain tracking east across the Highway 84 corridor. The closed low will open up today as it tracks northeast across Oklahoma and then the Mid Mississippi valley tonight as an open trough. Our normal highs run from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s southeast.
Split upper level flow will prevail through the weekend, which means that while the active southern stream will push a well-organized low pressure system across the Deep South and into the Ohio Valley, the weak northern jet will maintain weak high pressure over the Upper Midwest.
519 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Make sure to grab your coat as you head out the door this morning! A Pacific front moved through overnight and temperatures took a tumble due to light winds and clear skies, falling below freezing for those west of a line from Midland to Fort Stockton. An upper trough will move over the Texas Panhandle today with drier air moving into our region.
(Today) Higher clouds are currently filtering into our area from the West and will continue to increase in coverage and density throughout this morning and into the afternoon as high pressure gets shoved eastward and out of the South. High temperatures today are forecast to hit the low to mid 50s before dropping back into the low 40s tonight, landing the lows roughly 10 degrees above climatological normal values for this time of year.
High pressure was located over the Mid-Mississippi Valley early this morning with a warm front moving eastward along the International Border. Low stratus was prevalent over the region with areas of light flurries and freezing drizzle underneath the low clouds. Forecast soundings across the area show the area of low level saturation below the DGZ, so expecting freezing drizzle to be the dominant p-type this morning as the warm front moves through this morning. The low stratus will most likely prevail as the upper trough moves through tonight into Sunday morning.
Upper level analysis places ridge over the far western CONUS, with trough over the Northern Plains and a low near the Oklahoma Panhandle. A few echos showing up on radar over eastern Montana with the aforementioned trough, but so far nothing showing up in the observations. For today, a mainly quiet day is on tap, with possibly a little light morning snow over the far southwest with the aforementioned trough moving through, and possibly a few patches of fog lingering in the morning. Otherwise, skies should be more sun than clouds as we get behind the trough.
525 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the northern plains which heads east into upper Great Lakes by this evening.
259 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2023 The low pressure is currently lifting out over the Plains leaving us under northerly flow. High temps today will run 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday in the wake of a cold front. The next low pressure system will arrive over the northern Great Basin early tomorrow and continue progressing southward during the day.
(Today through Sunday) At the surface, high pressure currently across the Mid Mississippi River Valley will move east through the period.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) Make sure to grab your coat as you head out the door this morning! A Pacific front moved through overnight and temperatures took a tumble due to light winds and clear skies, falling below freezing for those west of a line from Midland to Fort Stockton. An upper trough will move over the Texas Panhandle today with drier air moving into our region.