Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Very dry air in the lowest 10 kft agl ensures any radar returns south of I 69 will remain virga. A stout dry layer between 900-800mb looks to hold in place through this evening as an elevated warm front lifts across the area, but northern areas will have potential to see an isolated shower or rumble of thunder overnight into Tuesday morning as the nose of an 40 kt 850mb LLJ arrives from the southwest and provides enhanced moisture/lift along the front. Highs likely to reach the lower 70s for most of the area with a few mid 70s possible in the south. The midweek synoptic pattern features a strengthening ridge over the SE CONUS with persistent southwesterly flow maintaining the very mild air mass over the Great Lakes.
707 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 High pressure will build across the Northeast over the next couple days. Fair weather will continue this afternoon and evening with light and variable winds through the evening as the upper level ridge shifts east and the center axis is over Central NC Tuesday morning. Overnight expect good radiational cooling with temperatures dropping into the low/mid 30s in the colder spots, with warmer spots in the mid/upper 30s. The best chance of frost tonight will be in the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain, but some cooler spots in the Sandhills and southern Piedmont could see conditions close enough that result in frost. Mid/upper level ridge will build over NC on Tuesday bringing another day of fair weather.
741 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Dry, cool high pressure will continue building into the forecast area, remaining over the region through the middle of the week. The anomalously strong ridge over the Southeast will lead to a warming trend starting mid week and keeps the area dry into the weekend. Didn't change much in regards to overnight lows after looking at latest guidance, so have kept the lows ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Meanwhile, upper ridging begins to build over the area, but flow aloft is forecast to remain from the north. This should keep temperatures seasonably mild with afternoon highs in the lower 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to around 50.
618 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday) High pressure will remain over the area through the short term.
803 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 (Through Tuesday) High pressure continues to build into the region allowing for quiet weather to continue. Low temperatures for tonight are forecast to dip in the low to mid 50s for GA and AL counties and in to the mid to upper 50s, to near 60 along the coast.
Increases in winds along with the warmer temps and low RH values have supported critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. This precip trend will continue on Tuesday along with some slight cooling as an upper trough/low approaches from the west/southwest. Any showery development still looks to be confined to mainly the higher terrain, however, guidance does vary with the extent any showers moving off into the lower terrain. If an storms were to occur, think they would be isolated and tied to the higher terrain, especially the southwest mountains. While cooler temps are anticipated on Tuesday, still expect highs to be above normal.
150 AM EDT Wed Oct 24 2023 High pressure will modify while extending across the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through the end of the week. However, as the continental airmass continues to undergo moderation, tonight's low temperatures are expected to be anywhere from 7 to 12 10 degrees warmer than what was observed this past morning. Overnight lows in the 40s, with some upper 30s in the typically cooler locations. A strengthening upper level ridge will continue to shift east with the main axis over Central NC Wednesday. High pressure anchored over the region will influence the region again, but by Wednesday afternoon light winds will be from the south/south east. Whiles skies will be mostly clear on Wednesday there is another chance for the development of low status and fog Wednesday night with increase moisture in the lower levels.
Dry and warmer today with elevated fire weather concerns possible this afternoon due to low afternoon RH. Discussion: The synoptic pattern consists of upper level ridging from the Gulf of Mexico north through the southeast, and into the Ohio Valley, with upstream troughing anchored across Baja, and the southwest US. Broad surface ridging extends from the Mid-Atlantic through the northeast. Tranquil weather is expected throughout the short term period underneath increasing heights and surface ridging. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer within southerly flow with highs in the mid 70's.
122 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions tonight through the day on Tuesday.
Most of the short-term forecast will revolve around a broad high pressure system at both the surface and aloft, situated over most of the southeast CONUS. This ridging will limit the eastward progression of a trough/frontal boundary through this entire time period. Meanwhile, the southerly flow will steadily increase on the back side of the high pressure center allowing moisture to increase across the Quad State area as well as gradually increasing temperature.
No precip is expected, though, as the axis of high pressure aloft shifts slightly to the east tomorrow, keeping things dry at the surface. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s across the Plateau and in the low-to-mid 50s near Nashville. (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) A warm and pleasant day across the mid state is ongoing as temperatures are into the lower to mid 70s under partly cloudy conditions. With an upper low intensifying off of Baja Cal, southwesterly mid and upper level flow will continue to feed this mid and upper level cloud cover across our area through Tuesday night. However, no precip expected with the higher cloud coverage. Otw, Upper ridge axis will shift just to the east of the mid state on Tuesday with the southerly lower level flow on the upswing.
(Now through Tuesday) Warm and benign conditions expected through Tuesday as a ridging over the southern Gulf builds northward. Expect dry conditions to continue with warm temperatures as subsidence clears out most clouds and east southeasterly winds allow for warmer Gulf air to slowly move northward.
Temps are forecast to reach the low to mid 70s the next two days with lows tonight in the 40s which is overall about 5 degrees above climo.
248 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 High pressure will remain over the region overnight.
While strengthening a bit, ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface centered to our northeast, will both remain firmly in control of the weather across the region through Tuesday.
Otherwise, local conditions today simply marked by the noted warming trend as the advective process gains traction in the lower levels. As noted with activity tonight, cannot rule out a rumble of thunder given the lower static stability held aloft.
135 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 High pressure will prevail leading to dry weather through the weekend with temperatures increasing to above normal levels starting Wednesday. The ridge axis moves overhead tonight with high pressure centered to the north. Tuesday the high becomes elongated along the NE coast, still reaching down into the area slightly. With the core of the cold air a bit further removed, highs should get into the lower 70s. Both surface ridging and mid-upper ridging will dominate the weather with high confidence in mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. As the respective ridge axes move overhead, a general warming trend will accompany the increasing 1000-500mb thicknesses.
207 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 (Through Tuesday) High pressure continues to build into the region allowing for quiet weather to continue. Low temperatures for tonight are forecast to dip in the low to mid 50s for GA and AL counties and in to the mid to upper 50s, to near 60 along the coast. Expect overnight lows around 60 degrees with daytime highs in the low to mid 80s.
1200 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Dry high pressure will prevail across the region this week, and possibly into this weekend. Lows from the lower-mid 40s well inland and the Francis Marion National Forest to the upper 50s/lower 60s at the beaches (warmest coastal Georgia) look on track. A strong, deep layer ridge continues to be depicted by all models to build over the southeast U. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will be centered over the Mid Atlantic states, and extend southwest into our area. With a building ridge, temperatures are also expected to gradually warm through the week.
A ridge of high pressure continues to be parked over the southeast states and eastern Gulf of Mexico while an upper trough is over the western states and Northeast Mexico. Tuesday is expected to remain dry, however a scattering of showers may move across SE TX Wednesday as the aforementioned upper disturbance moves slightly closer and ridge drifts slightly east.
(Today through Wednesday) High pressure will slide to our east today and will supply the region with and easterly flow. This flow will keep us dry, but some clouds will work in across the south and west during the afternoon on the bottom side of the high pressure system. Highs will be generally in the low 80s each day with a few upper 70s in the northeast.
1210 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) An upper level low was pushing south-southwest off of the southern California coast. An upper level high was located across the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level low pushing off of the southern California is expected to be over northwest Mexico just southwest of the New Mexico bootheel by Tuesday evening. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop to the northeast of the upper level low over the southwest Texas Panhandle and these are expected to spread northeast as the upper low moves northeast to eastern New Mexico by Wednesday afternoon. The rain is then expected to end from west to east Wednesday night as the upper low moves across the Panhandles.
1135 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 (Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening with high pressure continuing to nose in from the south. (Tuesday through Wednesday night) High pressure will drift more into the NE/mid Atlantic Basins thru mid week, while the upper ridge axis becomes centered more over the central/eastern Gulf states.
By Tues/Wed, a digging upper trough over the SWrn CONUS will begin ejecting into the Red River Valley. A deepening sfc cyclone over the Wrn High Plains will support increasing moisture advection within a strengthening SErly sfc flow regime, although the axis of highest moisture will remain over OK/TX.
500 mb low pressure over Baja California will gradually work northeast into the Desert Southwest, as 500 mb high pressure over the Florida Straits becomes centered over the panhandle of Florida. Finally, rough seas along the Lower Texas Coast through the period will result in a High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches.
1233 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) High pressure continues to dominate the southeastern US today. Expect much of the same tomorrow as the high pressure dome starts to shift southward toward the GoM. Very warm temperatures are expected as well with high temperatures topping out in the lower 90s this afternoon and again tomorrow. Once again, building seas along the Lower Texas Coast tonight through Tuesday will result in a High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches.
Little change to the synoptic set up as high pressure remains in control at the surface and aloft. High temperatures will generally range the low 80s today. Strong mid-upper level ridging continues to remain entrenched across the Gulf Coast States during this time. The mid/upper level ridging will weaken gradually into the extended with center of mid-level high pressure sagging slowly into the central Gulf with H500 heights lowering.
Key Messages: - Seasonable temperatures on Tuesday, then slightly warmer Wednesday.
858 PM PDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Fair and slightly warmer weather returns for Tuesday, as low pressure exits the region.
Near normal temperatures Tuesday before a parade of cold fronts brings colder weather starting Wednesday.
The well-advertised upper trough currently over the Baja Peninsula will move east tonight and into Southwest Texas by midday Wednesday.
(Today and tonight) Ridging aloft will continue to build over the Gulf of Mexico with quiet weather persisting.
Clouds were primarily high cirrus moving in from the west/southwest on the periphery of a building ridge axis to the west. Early morning temperatures were mainly in the lower-mid 50s. Some of the outlying reporting stations that have good radiational cooling characteristics were in the lower 40s. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Strong mid-level ridge over the southeastern US will continue its influence over the region.
(Today) The 05Z surface map indicated a high pressure cell centered over the mid Atlantic states, with a ridge axis through the lee of the Appalachians and into AL.
1245 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 High pressure will maintain dry conditions through much of the week.
331 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 High pressure will maintain dry conditions through much of the week.
Warm weather will continue across the Mid-South through the weekend as an upper level high pressure system continues to amplify. A cold front will stall late this week and bring the return of rain chances mainly for areas along and west of the Mississippi River.
46 inches was a record rainfall for the day and the most rain we have seen in one day in over 2 years! We aren't done yet as attention shifts west to an upper low currently over Baja California. The upper low then approaches our region this evening, spreading large scale ascent ahead of it.
(Today through Wednesday night) Today into tomorrow night, neutrally tilted longwave trough, currently centered over Baja California, will advance northeastward to KS/OK, passing over the Panhandles in the process.
57" today, which is the highest in a single day all year. An upper level low will move into the area behind the remnants of Norma late Tuesday and into early Wednesday morning. Associated with this upper low will be a front moving in from the west that will setup our region's second round of precipitation.
450 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 High pressure will maintain dry conditions through much of the week.
An upper level low will be centered across northern Mexico, south of Arizona, this evening. This low will track northeast, toward far West Texas Wednesday morning.
222 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 High pressure will modify while extending across the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through the end of the week. Expect a wide range in min temps ranging from mid/upper 30s in outlying/rural areas to lower/mid 40s in urban areas, with light patchy frost possible in the cooler locations. Mid/upper level ridge will build over NC on Tuesday bringing another day of fair weather. Lows will be warmer than previous nights with temps in the low to mid 40s. High confidence in above normal temperatures and dry weather through An anomalously strong mid/upper ridge will continue to build across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic from the middle of the week through the end of the week.
(Now through Wednesday) An upper level ridge stretching north from high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico builds a bit into mid week. With subsidence from the building upper ridge continuing, temperatures remain at well above seasonal levels. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s are expected today and Wednesday. Tonight, low temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s along and north of Highway 84 to the low 60s closer to the coast.
635 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 (Today and tonight) Ridging aloft will continue to build over the Gulf of Mexico with quiet weather persisting.
-A much cooler air mass will arrive late this week and linger through the upcoming weekend. This morning, a large upper low continues to spin over Baja California.
Cold front will move east today with winds going around to the west, then north, and bring colder air back into the region. Given the potentially warmer conditions today, along with melting and early season, the lower ratio is more in line with potentially southern shift of the system.
726 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Aviation Breezy southwesterly winds expected today and Wednesday on the west side of a sprawling eastern CONUS high, which is transporting seasonably warm air and richer moisture through the area ahead of a frontal trough that stretches from the northern Great Lakes to central Plains. Most HREF member models are focusing subsequent waves of thunderstorms well north of the CWA later today into tonight as the warm front likely surges north, while southern portions of Michigan could maintain partly sunny skies through the day and boost temperatures well into the 70s.
(Rest of Today) The main concern for today continues to be fire weather as high pressure remains centered over the Mid Atlantic region and very dry air anchors over the Tennessee Valley.
Gusty westerly winds will be strongest over the higher terrain today then east of the Cascades on Wednesday.
602 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 (Today through Wednesday) High pressure will slide to our east today and will supply the region with and easterly flow. This flow will keep us dry, but some clouds will work in across the south and west during the afternoon on the bottom side of the high pressure system. Highs will be generally in the low 80s each day with a few upper 70s in the northeast.
This is because surface temperatures are forecast to be near freezing, and the higher precipitation rates can further lower snow levels.
Cooler and more unsettled weather returns Wednesday with a chance of showers.
With ridging aloft, sunshine, and a warm slightly muggy air mass overhead, temperatures will likely rise into the upper 70s where skies clear out the most.
644 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Persistence will continue to be a good forecast through the near term as a strong high pressure system remains centered over the southeastern region. /KVP/ High pressure continues to be the dominant feature this week and will promote much above normal temperatures, as much as 10-15 degrees F. High pressure will keep flow southerly, but moisture return should be meager.
626 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 (Today through Wednesday night) Today into tomorrow night, neutrally tilted longwave trough, currently centered over Baja California, will advance northeastward to KS/OK, passing over the Panhandles in the process.
From this cyclonically rotating area of lower heights extend upper level trofs which encourage the deepening of an upper level trof located along the Canadian western border.
524 AM PDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Dry and much warmer in the mountains today with weak high pressure aloft.
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Warm weather will continue across the Mid-South through the weekend as an upper level high pressure system continues to amplify. A cold front will stall late this week and bring the return of rain chances mainly for areas along and west of the Mississippi River.
1053 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Dry, cool high pressure will continue building into the forecast area, remaining over the region through the middle of the week. The anomalously strong ridge over the Southeast will lead to a warming trend starting mid week and keeps the area dry through the weekend. Temperatures should be similar to yesterday but maybe a degree or two warmer with air mass modification and slightly higher heights with highs expected in the lower to mid 70s. As a result radiational cooling will not be as optimal as it was this morning and will lead to slightly warmer temperatures. The increased moisture and weak mixing overnight should bring lows closer to 50 along the coastal plain, while north of I-20 lows should be in the low 40s.
815 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 High pressure will maintain dry conditions through much of the week.
Current analysis charts show high pressure to the north- northeast of Florida. A weakness in the high has developed over south to central Florida which will allow a weak inverted trough to develop along the eastern coast into Wednesday. Afternoon highs will be near normal with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. A weak inverted trough will develop along the eastern coast of Florida into Wednesday. Strong mid-upper level ridging continues to remain entrenched across the Gulf Coast States during this time. The mid/upper level ridging will weaken gradually into the extended with center of mid-level high pressure sagging slowly into the central Gulf with H500 heights lowering.
546 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 (Today) The 05Z surface map indicated a high pressure cell centered over the mid Atlantic states, with a ridge axis through the lee of the Appalachians and into AL.
1023 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 High pressure will maintain dry conditions through much of the week.
High temperatures will range from the lower 70s in parts of northeast Oklahoma to the lower 80s in west central Arkansas.
Some lower clouds and even a few sprinkles are trying to make it to the coast and onshore which will likely remain a trend through the rest of today, though don't expect them to penetrate very far inland as the low level moisture source cuts off as we remain pretty dry away from the coast.
413 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Persistence will continue to be a good forecast through the near term as a strong high pressure system remains centered over the southeastern region. /KVP/ High pressure continues to be the dominant feature this week and will promote much above normal temperatures, as much as 10-15 degrees F. High pressure will keep flow southerly, but moisture return should be meager.
1043 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Persistent high pressure system situated over the Carolinas will continue to keep weather relatively calm in our area for the rest of the day. (Today and tonight) Ridging aloft will continue to build over the Gulf of Mexico with quiet weather persisting.
228 AM PDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Conditions will remain stable over the San Joaquin Valley through the middle of this week before an upper level trough moves in nearer to the weekend. This trough will bring a cooling trend to the region, along with partly cloudy conditions and a chance of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada. A weak upper level ridge will build in over the region in the short term as low pressure moves south out of the forecast area.
1209 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Upper level ridging continues to build across the SE US. Similar to yesterday the high clouds continue to thin across the Mid- South. SJM Warm weather will continue across the Mid-South through the weekend as an upper level high pressure system continues to amplify. A cold front will stall late this week and bring the return of rain chances mainly for areas along and west of the Mississippi River.
1051 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Upper level ridging continues to build across the SE US. Similar to yesterday the high clouds continue to thin across the Mid- South. SJM Warm weather will continue across the Mid-South through the weekend as an upper level high pressure system continues to amplify. A cold front will stall late this week and bring the return of rain chances mainly for areas along and west of the Mississippi River.
With weak height rises behind a trough slowly exiting to the east, temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday in most locations.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing well to our west, as tropical moisture continues to follow the trough axis through the Plains. The well defined upper-level trough to our west will begin its ejection tonight, which will push some rain chances into our NW zones.
Deep layer ridging is building over the southeastern United States with this morning's sounding recording heights rising across all of Florida.