Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Breezy but warmer temperatures on Tuesday highlights the short term period. Northwest flow aloft persisted over the forecast area this afternoon, upstream of a closed low placed over the Great Lakes region, and downstream of a weak ridge building over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, a broad high pressure was centered over eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota, with a modest pressure gradient across the forecast area leading to breezy southeast winds. Temperatures warm quite a bit on Tuesday as a low level thermal ridge moves over the Dakotas ahead of the system midweek. Highs will be in the 30s for most, with forecast highs in the lower 40s for the southwest. Chances for precipitation return Wednesday, with a chance for snow and possibly some freezing rain.
P-type overall looks to be mostly rain early on thanks to a formidable warm layer pushing 6000 feet thick, yet there is still room for this to layer to wet bulb and support some snow at times or even a little freezing rain; however, accumulations of either should be hampered by mild ground temps. Breezy SSW winds emerge tonight as this ridge shifts away from the region and this will make for milder lows across the board. These winds will pull a fetch of higher dewpoints in the low/mid 40s across the South Plains after midnight with a good probability of stratus.
Heaviest precipitation still looks to be tonight as main upper system and surface cold front approaches. A strong cold front will move through southeast Idaho late tonight and very early Wednesday morning. Snow levels will quickly reach valley floors Wednesday morning behind the cold front but expecting nothing more than very light snow amounts of an inch or less in the Snake Plain. After very mild conditions today and tonight expect daytime temperatures Wednesday to continuously fall behind the cold front.
1234 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 As expected, temperatures are heading toward the freezing mark this evening. Based on current temperatures we could end up a couple degrees cooler than the previous forecast suggested. The Freeze Warning is in effect until 11AM tomorrow, when most places will make it above the freezing mark. Obviously not all locations will drop below freezing at 11 pm. Tomorrow should be a few degrees warmer than today with highs forecasted in the 40s everywhere.
High pressure will move across the forecast area tonight and with the light winds we could have a decent setup for radiational cooling tonight, but how much cloud cover is questionable. High pressure moves off to the east tomorrow and southerly winds will strengthen as WAA boosts temperatures a few degrees from today under mostly sunny skies.
1250 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Latest subjective surface analysis indicates high pressure centered in eastern Nebraska, with relatively short wavelength ridge extending southward to south Texas.
While this feature is likely to create increased cloudiness, the dry and relatively cool airmass in the low levels should keep rain chances near zero, although a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out.
The closed upper low responsible for dragging this modified continental polar air mass southward is departing the region, taking its stratocumulus with it. This evening's setup of 1029 mb high pressure over the area under a clear sky will foster quick radiational cooling.
132 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023 Drier and cooler than normal northwest steering flow is expected through the next 24 hours, along with a period of high clouds tonight that will push south of the region on Tuesday with skies becoming Mostly Sunny. Temps will fall into the upper 30s across inland SE GA tonight, and into the lower to middle 40s for coastal SE GA and NE FL. Temps only rebounding into the lower 60s across SE GA and mid/upper 60s across NE FL on Tuesday afternoon. Highs will be closer to near climatology, reaching the lower to upper 60s. Lows in inland northeast Florida will fall to the upper 30s and lower 40s, and along the coast will be warmer.
Tomorrow and Wednesday, upper level ridging is forecasted to move over the area which will help temperatures warm to well above average values in the 60's and 70's with the warmer temperatures on Wednesday. Will need to see if any of the moisture from the atmospheric river over the west move over and produces high clouds as temperatures would likely then be a few degrees cooler.
1049 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 (Tonight) We're in store for a mostly clear and cold night across the Tennessee Valley as high pressure at the surface remains in place across the Deep South.
The high pressure builds southeastward into the Central Appalachians late tonight through Wednesday, which will lead to winds decreasing overnight tonight. Temperatures will likely drop into the mid 20s across the north, with the southern areas dropping near to just below freezing.
Additional snowfall by this evening could be 3-5" in the higher elevations, but this is a high-end outcome. All medium range guidance supports fair and warmer conditions Wed-Thu, as upper trough lifts out and high pressure builds across PA, then off the east coast.
Temperatures showing to be sufficiently warmer than yesterday. Most of these will be virga as they move off to the lower elevations. With most of the instability over the higher terrain and marginal moisture, there will be a chance for showers into the early evening with a few showers venture off the terrain mainly as virga. Warmer and mainly dry conditions expected Tuesday with a weak ridge aloft.
Temperatures across Cumberland Plateau Region will drop to below freezing early this evening with temperatures falling below freezing to its west as evening hours progress. Temperatures should finally rise above freezing across all of mid state region by mid morning hours on Wednesday. As above mentioned high pressure influences slowly shift eastward as day on Wednesday progresses, temperatures will finally push into mid to upper 50s by the afternoon hours.
Several nights of subfreezing temperatures are expected, with coldest temperatures expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s for most areas. Winds aloft will shift more northwesterly as the upper trough and closed low in New England moves offshore. A 20 kt low level jet will prevent ideal radiational cooling but either way temperatures should drop to below freezing for most areas. The NBM gives > 90% chance of sub freezing temperatures across the area. Wednesday and Wednesday Night: The area will see a slightly warmer afternoon temperatures as the airmass slowly begins to moderate. Temperatures drop down close to freezing just about everywhere, and with higher humidity and light winds there will be a high chance of widespread frost formation.
High pressure will move across the region today, with increasing southerly return flow developing as the high shifts east tonight into Wednesday. Highs today should be in the lower to middle 30s. Much milder air arrives on Wednesday, with highs reaching into the lower to middle 40s, except upper 30s over northern Door County.
Still expecting with light cold advection we will work below freezing everywhere and probably by a respectable margin - probably. Winds will be a bit lighter than this morning in the overnight and mins should make more of a run to the lower 20s. Wednesday ridging builds in further aloft which reinforces it at the surface over GA/SC.
Lows will be a bit warmer, in the upper 20s to low 30s. On Wednesday, the combination of an upper level ridge building in across the central CONUS and increasing southerly flow, temperatures will continue to moderate despite increasing high clouds ahead of the next weather system. Highs will be a bit above normal in the low 50s to low 60s. Showers will develop late Wednesday night on the nose of the low level jet, mainly along and north of I-70.
The first is across central Ohio, where better moisture and proximity to the mid/upper level low are combining to enhance the coverage. Winds between 10 and 15 mph coupled with temperatures in the lower 20s will yield wind chill values near the single digits this morning. With high pressure moving in and skies clearing into the overnight, went below NBM guidance by a couple of degrees. This places the low temperatures in the mid to upper teens for much of the area. The high pressure that provided the chilly morning slowly shifts to the southeast of the area throughout the day.
Otherwise, skies will clear as a high pressure system moves into the area.
650 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023 A cold and dry air mass will remain across the region through mid-week with several nights of subfreezing temperatures expected.
Cold weather will persist today with highs in the lower to middle 30s. Milder air returns Wednesday with highs in the lower to middle 40s. Otherwise, skies will clear as a high pressure system moves into the area.
Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing overnight tonight into Wednesday morning, thus a Freeze Warning is in effect for all of our counties from midnight to 9AM Wednesday.
Current observations show a lee trough along the Front Range, and generally shallow inversions in place. This is noted by a few stations in/near the foothills hovering in the lower 40s in these pre-dawn hours. The inversions will only weaken through the day with daytime heating, lee troughing, and further warm advection. For tonight, flow aloft turns southwesterly as the next storm system and trough moves onto the West Coast.
Despite the sun, subsidence and lingering cold air will keep things a tad bit cooler and only expecting highs to top off in the low to mid 30s this afternoon. Looking at the high temps climb well into the 40s for Wednesday and cannot rule out a few locations creeping toward or even above 50 degrees, especially in southeastern WI. Warmer conditions will continue overnight as cloud cover increases ahead of the next system.
There are a few lingering MVFR ceilings, mainly over the Lower Keys, but they should clear out over the next few hours. Relative humidity values in the lowest 300 mb was above 80 percent with some buoyancy available, but mainly in the mid troposphere. Given the above, a few showers over the islands still remain a possibility, with most showers this afternoon remaining out over the warmer waters of the Florida Straits.
Yesterday's cold front now lies across the Florida Straits this morning. Cooler/drier northerly air will advect down the peninsula providing MSunny skies as we venture into the afternoon.
Wednesday will be the warmer of the two days, with highs in the 60s and 70s.
Strong warm-advection will lift snow levels up above the higher passes by midday with heavy snow expected to mainly impact elevations above 8500 ft during the afternoon. The low is forecast to move quickly to the northeast by this evening, so while it will remain windy for several hours into the evening, the strongest winds will likely be in the rearview mirror by sunset.
A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and perhaps freezing rain on the northern fringe will be possible until ~15Z. For tonight, skies should quickly clear but south winds will return as lee cyclogenesis commences over CO ahead of a Pacific mid to upper trough.
06Z surface data has high pressure running from the upper Midwest into the southern Plains. Quiet and dry conditions will be see as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
519 AM MDT Tue Mar 14 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge moving out of the Rockies into the Northern Plains, with next upper trof over the Pac NW. At the surface, lee trof/warm front has advanced into the Black Hills. Lee trof/warm front will continue to lift through the forecast area today, with thermal ridge and downslope flow helping push temps well into the 50s for many areas. Will expand the High Wind Watch to include the central Black Hills, and allow the day shift one more look before deciding on any warnings/advisories. Winds will shift northwest on Wednesday behind cold front, although mild temps are still expected before the colder air arrives late Wednesday.
Strong high pressure building into the Gulf from the north will provide mainly north to northeast winds today, then becoming more northeast to east during the middle of the week.
Cold high pressure then settles in tonight before moving eastward during Wednesday.
Temperatures this morning have climbed above freezing so the freeze warning for this morning has been canceled.
Northwesterly flow continues across the Ohio Valley this morning as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Wind chills may not rise above freezing all day. With high pressure moving in and skies clearing into the overnight, went below NBM guidance by a couple of degrees. This places the low temperatures in the mid to upper teens for much of the area. The high pressure that provided the chilly morning slowly shifts to the southeast of the area throughout the day.
551 AM MDT Tue Mar 14 2023 The warmer effects of the high pressure ridge moving across the region will continue today. The next winter storm set to impact our area is beginning to take shape as a deeper trof off the west coast moves onshore. Warm air will still be in place in the southeast as the moisture and colder air moves across the state, which could result in some freezing rain or sleet before the airmass cools enough to switch to snow.
The ridge axis associated with this high pressure builds further into the region today causing northerly surface winds to ease slightly. Highs this afternoon are expected to top out in the mid and upper 50s for most inland areas and the lower 60s near the coast. Confidence in temperatures dropping to near or just below freezing is a little higher over far inland communities late tonight (as compared to early this morning) as lighter winds and mostly clear skies give way to radiational cooling. High temps will be warmer by Wednesday afternoon with values in the 60s as cold air advection relaxes.
* A powerful cold front will bring very cold air, windy conditions, and potentially a rain/snow mix for much of the area. Upper ridging and a tightened pressure gradient due to surface pressure falls across the High Plains will promote warm and windy conditions across much of the area on Wednesday.
1221 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 Temperatures across most of middle TN have come above freezing so the current freeze warning has been expired. Even though the mountainous terrain of the Cumberland Plateau will go below freezing around 01Z /8 pm/ most of the forecast area won/t be for another couple of hours. Temperatures across Cumberland Plateau Region will drop to below freezing early this evening with temperatures falling below freezing to its west as evening hours progress. Temperatures should finally rise above freezing across all of mid state region by mid morning hours on Wednesday. As above mentioned high pressure influences slowly shift eastward as day on Wednesday progresses, temperatures will finally push into mid to upper 50s by the afternoon hours.
Although it only takes a very small amount of freezing rain to produce significant impacts. However, as we get into the late morning and afternoon hours, the probability for freezing rain will diminish, especially on roadways, as road temperatures climb. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be below freezing except for the far southwest, so expect if we do get some qpf, there will be at least minimal impacts.
-- Late Week Storm System -- Ahead of an amplifying and increasingly phased northern and southern stream trough in the middle CONUS on Thu, warm-advective low-level flow will bring milder air back to Lwr MI on Wed and Thu, with temperatures closer to mid-March normals. A full tropospheric cyclone is likely to reach peak development over or near Michigan on Fri. Precip chances will increase during the day Thu into Thu night as moisture carried by an approx 50 knot low-level jet glides up the warm frontal surface. 75 on the higher end of the potential. The low levels look generally stable while the mid-upper levels stay weakly stable to moist-neutral so this would keep the potential low for severe weather or lightning. Winds from the low's circulation itself may gust 40 to 50 mph as cold air advection commences Fri afternoon.
233 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 Current water vapor imagery shows northwesterly flow over the Middle Mississippi Valley, with surface observations showing an area of high pressure centered nearly directly over the CWA. This evening into the overnight hours, the area of high pressure will shift eastward, returning southerly flow to the area as upper- level ridging builds into the region. Tomorrow, warm air will begin advecting into the CWA with the southerly flow, with temperatures during the afternoon expected to peak roughly 20 degrees warmer than what will be experienced today.
Confidence is medium in the high winds tonight/early Wednesday (highest over southern Campbell County vs.
322 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 After another cool night with temperatures below freezing, the rest of the week will be windy.
145 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023 A cold and dry air mass will remain across the region through mid-week with several nights of subfreezing temperatures expected.
Temperatures have warmed into the low 50s across portions of the urban corridor and a couple of spots in the plains. DEN is sitting at about 15F warmer than yesterday at this time, and highs in the low to mid 60s are still forecast across the lower elevations. Current observations show a lee trough along the Front Range, and generally shallow inversions in place. This is noted by a few stations in/near the foothills hovering in the lower 40s in these pre-dawn hours. The inversions will only weaken through the day with daytime heating, lee troughing, and further warm advection. For tonight, flow aloft turns southwesterly as the next storm system and trough moves onto the West Coast.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Highs today are expected to be similar to yesterday as easterly surface flow ushers in some of the cooler air from the previous system. An approaching weak upper ridge currently over New Mexico will shift winds more southeasterly this evening and cloud cover will increase, resulting in warmer overnight temperatures in the 40s and 50s. As the ridge axis moves into Central Texas Wednesday afternoon, southerly surface flow increases and temperatures look to warm to the 70s and 80s by the afternoon.
West to southwest flow aloft will develop over the area tonight into Wednesday, ahead of an upper level trough over the western CONUS. Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 40s elsewhere. Temperatures will be warmer tomorrow, but with expected cloud cover, highs will only warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s by afternoon.
Surface ridging will cross the forecast area overnight as upper-level ridging builds in.
(This evening through Wednesday) High pressure will slowly move east through the TN Valley through the short term while a pressure gradient ahead of this high weakens. low temperatures are going to be at or below freezing in every county. As the high pressure moves over the state and flow begins to transition to the east and then south. warmer air will begin to filter back into the area.
(Through Tonight) Temperatures will be cold tonight, with areas in southeast Georgia falling to just above freezing.
The lowest snow total is now 2 inches with 6 to 10 inches for central and southwest Phillips county. Freezing rain and/or sleet still looks possible early Wednesday in the SE zones before they transition to snow that accumulates in the afternoon.
The return flow ramps up on Wednesday with a tighter pressure gradient between the departed high and approaching low pressure system.
With snow levels high enough and valley temperatures well above freezing, precipitation will begin as rain until after sunset or sometime thereafter as temperatures drop.
(This evening through Wednesday) Modest upper level ridging and associated subsidence will transit quickly overhead tonight, with flow aloft gradually backing on Wednesday ahead of broad upper troughing over the Pacific coast. Cloud cover should diminish by about midday as drier WSW flow erodes the top of the low level moist layer, with breezy conditions expected during the afternoon hours as mixing heights ascend above 700mb, especially on the Caprock.
(Tonight) As high pressure continues to build in from our NW, the few clouds currently in place over the TN Valley are expected to clear out this evening-- allowing abundant radiational cooling to occur and temperatures to drop a couple of degrees lower than guidance.
This will mean an increase in precipitation across the high country, with snow in the mountains, and a rain and snow mix for some of the mountain valleys. With mid-level temperatures warming a few degrees Celsius compared to today, overall highs should be around 5-10F warmer than today. Still some concern about cloud cover in the afternoon, but either way it should set up to be a pleasant day before much cooler weather arrives Wednesday night.
1033 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 Temperatures across most of middle TN have come above freezing so the current freeze warning has been expired. Even though the mountainous terrain of the Cumberland Plateau will go below freezing around 01Z /8 pm/ most of the forecast area won/t be for another couple of hours. Temperatures across Cumberland Plateau Region will drop to below freezing early this evening with temperatures falling below freezing to its west as evening hours progress. Temperatures should finally rise above freezing across all of mid state region by mid morning hours on Wednesday. As above mentioned high pressure influences slowly shift eastward as day on Wednesday progresses, temperatures will finally push into mid to upper 50s by the afternoon hours.
Went on the low side of guidance for overnight lows. A brief warmup starts tomorrow with afternoon highs in the lower 50s plateau to the mid 50s elsewhere. There will be some higher elevation and sheltered locations that will get to freezing or just below.
(Tonight through Tuesday) Warmer conditions expected on Wednesday with strong/gusty south winds developing.
Low to mid 60s is the most likely range, but I can see 2-3 degrees warmer if high clouds hold off a tad longer.
301 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023 High pressure advancing from the Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians will bring quiet weather to the region in the Short Term. A small patch of AC over South Dakota and Nebraska this afternoon may drift over southwest Indiana and western Kentucky early tomorrow morning as it slowly falls apart, but by and large we'll have clear skies at sunrise with the center of the high pressure over the middle Ohio Valley. With mostly sunny skies and a light south breeze, high temperatures on Wednesday will be in the lower and middle 50s. only about five degrees cooler than normal.
Can't rule out some notoriously colder locations falling into the low 20s. Wednesday night will be quite a bit warmer due to increasing clouds and southerly winds, with readings only falling into the mid 30s-lower 40s.
1130 AM MDT Tue Mar 14 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge moving out of the Rockies into the Northern Plains, with next upper trof over the Pac NW. At the surface, lee trof/warm front has advanced into the Black Hills. Lee trof/warm front will continue to lift through the forecast area today, with thermal ridge and downslope flow helping push temps well into the 50s for many areas. Will expand the High Wind Watch to include the central Black Hills, and allow the day shift one more look before deciding on any warnings/advisories. Winds will shift northwest on Wednesday behind cold front, although mild temps are still expected before the colder air arrives late Wednesday.