Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
While the spread remains high, the low should track from north TX, into eastern OK/NW AR, southwestern MO and then central IL. And even then, temperatures in the most favorable models only cool the lowest portions of the atmosphere to near freezing.
An upper level low will move through Arizona and New Mexico today, then through Texas and Oklahoma tonight. Highs tomorrow are progged to be warmer and in the 50s tomorrow.
Progressive quasi- zonal flow will bring another shallow trof into the area form the west late Friday and Friday night.
The only exception will be the higher elevations from Happy Jack and Flagstaff northwestward to the Grand Canyon area where deep snow cover and strong radiational cooling will plunge lows into the single digits. A long wave trough will remain over the western states.
A Pacific cold front will move from west to east through Central MT this afternoon, bringing in slightly cooler air for Friday.
209 AM MST Thu Mar 2 2023 Current surface map shows high pressure across the eastern Dakotas/Minnesota with trof/stationary front across central Montana into eastern Wyoming. For the rest of the day, will be dry/warmer with highs in the 30s/lower 40s. Weak impulse crosses the Northern Plains Friday with cold front sliding through during the day.
352 AM MST Thu Mar 2 2023 Water vapor imagery shows a strong trough over Arizona with weak flow over Colorado. The aforementioned trough will move well to our south today. Given the trough will go so far south, it will allow for more sun across our forecast area.
453 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 High pressure to build across the area today offering cooler temperatures and dry conditions. Deep low pressure to track northeast from the lower Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley Friday. High pressure and dry weather to return this weekend. Westerly mid level flow with surface cold front exiting ILN/s southeast counties. Cooler temperatures with highs from the upper 40s northwest to near 60 southeast. Some of the hi resolution model solutions are showing a thin ribbon of surface based instability advecting into northern KY/Southern Ohio, Friday afternoon ahead of cold front. HREF mean QPF showing values of 2 to 3 inches -- with the highest totals over the west and southwest.
510 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 Cooler air will spread over the area today with increasing clouds but dry conditions. A strong upper level low had just moved into western AZ tonight. This system will eject out of the large western trof and race northeast Thursday into Friday.
Guidance has been consistently too low with MaxTs over the last few days, so the forecast was blended to find warmer highs. Winds will be strong this afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches and then crosses South Texas. Behind the front, much cooler temperatures will develop with highs dropping from today's 90s and triple digits to Friday highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.
This will wane during the afternoon with a relative lull before more robust convection develops as stronger forcing associated with the upper low arrives.
633 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 Cooler air will spread over the area today with increasing clouds but dry conditions. A strong upper level low had just moved into western AZ tonight. This system will eject out of the large western trof and race northeast Thursday into Friday.
Low temperatures will rise by a few degrees tomorrow morning, but some low lying valley areas will still see at or just above freezing temperatures on Friday morning as well.
A low pressure system will develop over the southern Plains today and track across Arkansas tonight. This low will drag a cold front through the Mid-South late tonight and into Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front.
now a dusting to 2 inches for most of the CWA (slightly higher totals in the highest terrain), except 3-6 inches from Swan Valley and the far upper Snake Plain to the WY border (except 1-3 inches Teton Valley). Further SW, stronger WSW winds of 20-30 MPH, gusting over 40 MPH, are likely over the ern Magic Valley, srn highlands, and lower Snake Plain, but here Wind Advisory values are largely confined to the highest terrain and the I-84 Idahome area (terrain-induced downsloping), and most of the active snowfall is likely to end/push east before the strongest winds arrive.
650 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 High pressure to build across the area today offering cooler temperatures and dry conditions. Deep low pressure to track northeast from the lower Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley Friday. High pressure and dry weather to return this weekend. Westerly mid level flow with surface cold front exiting ILN/s southeast counties. Cooler temperatures with highs from the upper 40s northwest to near 60 southeast. Some of the hi resolution model solutions are showing a thin ribbon of surface based instability advecting into northern KY/Southern Ohio, Friday afternoon ahead of cold front. HREF mean QPF showing values of 2 to 3 inches -- with the highest totals over the west and southwest.
Temperatures today and Friday are expected to be much warmer - ending up about 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday but still roughly 5-15 degrees below normal depending on your location.
A weakening cold front will bring very light rain to areas North of Cape Mendocino today.
636 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 (Today through Friday) Model guidance remain fairly consistent in depicting broad/deep high pressure remaining across much of the western Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Florida peninsula through the short term. Guidance consensus is becoming better clustered around a potential breezy solution for Friday afternoon, as a developing trough across the central CONUS will push the aforementioned ridge further to our east and increase pressure gradients across the area. Coastal/metro areas will be in the low-mid 80s, and up to around 90 over interior areas.
Temperatures will range from the lower 80s across the Nature Coast into the upper 80s across central Florida.
This will eventually lift and scatter out by around mid morning with another warm and dry day ahead as mid level ridging across Cuba remains in place. However, this ridge will start to flatten a bit and shift further eastward as a potent upper level trough swings across Texas today and into the mid Mississippi Valley tomorrow. The breezy southwest flow should also boost highs a degree or two warmer than Thursday with some locations possibly approaching record highs.
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 529 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 A low pressure system will develop over the southern Plains today and track across Arkansas tonight. This low will drag a cold front through the Mid-South late tonight and into Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front.
933 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 Another day of hot and dry conditions is in store for South Florida under high pressure. (Today through Friday) Model guidance remain fairly consistent in depicting broad/deep high pressure remaining across much of the western Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Florida peninsula through the short term. Guidance consensus is becoming better clustered around a potential breezy solution for Friday afternoon, as a developing trough across the central CONUS will push the aforementioned ridge further to our east and increase pressure gradients across the area. Coastal/metro areas will be in the low-mid 80s, and up to around 90 over interior areas.
225 AM MST Thu Mar 2 2023 A 500MB ridge axis is moving through the Pacific Northwest this morning.
953 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 High pressure to build across the area today offering cooler temperatures and dry conditions. Deep low pressure to track northeast from the lower Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley Friday. High pressure and dry weather to return this weekend. Previous discussion: Westerly mid level flow with surface cold front exiting ILN/s southeast counties. Cooler temperatures with highs from the upper 40s northwest to near 60 southeast. Some of the hi resolution model solutions are showing a thin ribbon of surface based instability advecting into northern KY/Southern Ohio, Friday afternoon ahead of cold front. HREF mean QPF showing values of 2 to 3 inches -- with the highest totals over the west and southwest.
A warm front stretches across southeast Oklahoma, from just north of KMLC down into southwest Arkansas with a cold front impinging on this area from the west. Temperatures have surged into the 70s across far southeast Oklahoma with dew points in the low to mid 60s. There will be a lesser threat of severe weather of severe weather across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas to the north of the warm front. There still could be some light snow mixed in with the rain in the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas Friday morning.
The big question mark for the early afternoon forecast package is whether or not to expand the High Wind Warning east across north-central Montana. We are closely monitoring observational trends and incoming 12z model data for the need to expand the High Wind Warning east across much of, if not all of, north-central Montana. Deterministically, a strong jet streak in the mid- and lower levels digging into the back of a Pacific cold frontal passage later today should be just enough to get wind gusts to the 60 mph threshold. A Pacific cold front will move from west to east through Central MT this afternoon, bringing in slightly cooler air for Friday.
The surface warm front is oriented north-south and analyzed across western North Dakota, and will be drifting east through the afternoon. Low stratus ahead of the warm front is persistent across much of the forecast area, although visible satellite imagery reveals the western edge is beginning to erode.
In addition, surface observations right around the Red River just into southern Oklahoma are showing ongoing fog to the north of the surface warm front extending across north Texas. The warm front looks to sneak north of the Red River by early to mid afternoon, placing Choctaw and parts of Pushmataha counties in the more warm, moist air. Storms here have the potential to be surface-based with very large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes all possible, especially right along the warm front.
Precipitation will fill in for a period in the valleys this evening as the upper trough passes, though amounts will be light. Surface winds: generally light 10 kt or less, except W-NW 10-15 kt in the Lower Snake River Plain with gusts to 30 kt.
Winds from the southeast have freshened a bit overnight as the ridge in the western North Atlantic receded east somewhat. From synopsis, High pressure over the western North Atlantic, in conjunction with a potent low pressure system sliding east across the Deep South, will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh southeast breezes today through Friday. A cold front stalling in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend will cause winds to turn to the southwest and slacken.
Strong 540 dm closed cyclone near El Paso at midday will track to the Texas Permian Basin by 6 pm, and this track will be too far south for meaningful QPF in SW KS. Did allow for low end chance pops for the far southeast zones (Barber county) after midnight, as the northwest periphery of the strong ejecting cyclone's deformation zone may clip that area briefly.
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1217 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 A low pressure system will develop over the southern Plains today and track across Arkansas tonight. This low will drag a cold front through the Mid-South late tonight and into Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front.
Look for a couple more hot and dry days across the Sunshine State as the mid level ridge lingers south of the Florida peninsula. Temperatures will range from the lower 80s across the Nature Coast into the upper 80s across central Florida each afternoon. A low pressure system that is currently developing over the Southern Plains will lift across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys tomorrow. As the associated trough and the trailing cold front approach Florida, the ridge that has been dominating the weather pattern will begin to flatten out and shift east. The cold front will slowly push south over the weekend and will act to cool temperatures by a couple degrees.
1259 PM MST Thu Mar 2 2023 Water vapor shows upper trof along the Pac NW coast with upper ridge extending from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. At the surface, lee trof has advanced into the western Dakotas. For Friday, weak upper trof moves through the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains by Friday night. Northwest winds will become breezy by afternoon as a cold front shifts through.
A warm front lifting into the area has resulted in some elevated hail storms this afternoon as MUCAPE of 500-1,000 J/kg and effective shear of 50-60 kts is over the area. On the back end of the system, the coldest outlier model guidance shows cooler low level temperatures and resulting snowfall as the system is exiting the area. The cooler than normal temperatures will only last through Friday.
Through Tonight: With the upper low (and strongest upper forcing) progressing eastward across TX/OK this aft/eve -- well south of the Tri-State area -- forcing will be relegated to the passage of a SW-NE oriented shear-axis. Until the main upper low kicks out and moves east, which won't happen until well beyond this forecast period, snow chances will continue.
The center of the low pressure system that created widespread snow across northern Arizona is currently over extreme southwestern New Mexico. Lingering convective snow bands on the back side of the low will gradually move east over northern Arizona through the afternoon as the low pressure system continues its trajectory eastward. The only exception will be the higher elevations from Happy Jack and Flagstaff northwestward to the Grand Canyon area where deep snow cover and strong radiational cooling will plunge lows into the single digits. A long wave trough will remain over the western states.
1255 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 Cooler air will spread over the area today with increasing clouds but dry conditions. A strong upper level low had just moved into western AZ tonight. This system will eject out of the large western trof and race northeast Thursday into Friday.
Gusty northerly winds will persist today on the back side of the low, particularly in the Colorado River Valley. Temperatures will be warmer today compared to yesterday but still below seasonal norms. Temperatures today and Friday are expected to be much warmer - ending up about 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday but still roughly 5-15 degrees below normal depending on your location.
Otherwise today will see a mostly cloudy sky much of the daytime hours as a elongated short wave trough moves east thru the area. Warmer airmass will move in overnight tonight into Friday ahead of a short wave and weak cold front moving east along the International border, with its passage Friday late aftn and evening.
1033 AM MST Thu Mar 2 2023 Current surface map shows high pressure across the eastern Dakotas/Minnesota with trof/stationary front across central Montana into eastern Wyoming. For the rest of the day, will be dry/warmer with highs in the 30s/lower 40s. Weak impulse crosses the Northern Plains Friday with cold front sliding through during the day.
Water vapor imagery shows a strong trough over Arizona with weak flow over Colorado. The aforementioned trough will move well to our south today. Given the trough will go so far south, it will allow for more sun across our forecast area.
243 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 Breezy but warmer and overall dry weather is expected in the short term period. The attendant warm front extends north- south across central North Dakota, with breezy winds on either side of the front. 19 UTC temperatures range from the mid teens north central to the lower 30s southwest, with low level warm advection spreading over the state. This will keep lows relatively mild tonight, in the lower teens to lower 20s. This front will somewhat limit high temperatures even after the warm front today, with forecast highs on Friday in the lower to mid 30s.
Deep layer ridging planted on the southwest coast of Cuba has shut down convection yet again with only fair weather cumulus seen on visible satelitte. This evening a strong low pressure system will cruise across the ArkLaTex area, tightening the pressure gradient over our forecast area. Winds will stay up through Friday as a cold front marches into the Gulf of Mexico. Breezes dramatically drop off Friday night as the low pressure system deflects the deep layer ridging to the southeast and leaves the cold front stalled out across the Florida peninsula.
1257 PM MST Thu Mar 2 2023 Water vapor shows upper trof along the Pac NW coast with upper ridge extending from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. At the surface, lee trof has advanced into the western Dakotas. For Friday, weak upper trof moves through the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains by Friday night. Northwest winds will become breezy by afternoon as a cold front shifts through.
An upper trough will cross the Pacific Northwest and reach western MT, ID and nern NV by 12Z Friday. Lows will range in the lower 20s. On Friday, a weak cold front will progress through the area. with the approach of the upper trough, there will be a chance for rain or snow across the far northwest Sandhills. Friday night, the northern stream trough will pass through the area. HAve likely POPs across the Pine Ridge, and 30 to 50 POPs across the remainder of Cherry and Sheridan County with snowfall amounts from 1 to 3 inches.
251 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 High pressure builds into the region tonight.
However the temperature should settle in closer to the freezing mark as the precipitation intensity picks up toward the evening commute. The latest ECMWF Ens snowfall accumulation probabilities show the Kalamazoo to Lansing to Jackson area with the potential to see the highest amounts.
906 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 Low stratus ahead of the warm front is persistent across much of the forecast area, although visible satellite imagery reveals the western edge is beginning to erode.
The forecast indicates a lowering of PoP into the afternoon, before a modest resurgence this evening as the warm front lifts northward through the area.
Thus, a cooler stable airmass will reside at least until early evening. As the upper low over southwest NM pulls rapidly into the north TX overnight, impressive cyclogensis will take place over the southern Plains as stout upper level diffluence occurs. This will lift the outflow boundary/warm front through the region and to our north overnight.
1245 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 Cooler air will spread over the area today with increasing clouds but dry conditions. A strong upper level low had just moved into western AZ tonight. This system will eject out of the large western trof and race northeast Thursday into Friday.
221 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 A low pressure system will track northeastward toward the Ohio River Valley during tonight into Friday to bring more rain.
We are closely monitoring observational trends and incoming 12z model data for the need to expand the High Wind Warning east across much of, if not all of, north-central Montana. Deterministically, a strong jet streak in the mid- and lower levels digging into the back of a Pacific cold frontal passage later today should be just enough to get wind gusts to the 60 mph threshold. A Pacific cold front will move from west to east through Central MT this afternoon, bringing in slightly cooler air for Friday.
The arctic airmass over the region this morning will shift off to the east tnt, with a bit warmer airmass gradually moving into the region through the weekend. Friday has some potential to mix out with northwest boundary layer winds, but afternoon CAA could put the kibosh on warmer than guidance highs.
High pressure currently over area is quickly dissipating ahead of the next system. The Lower Snake Plain will only get near 1 inch of snow. Will also be issuing a Special Weather Statement for the Southern Hills/Albion mountains and Raft river region where gusts of 35 (possibly higher) mph will be likely for ridge tops and downslope areas along I-84 by Idahome. One thing is sure, there is no strong upper level ridge developing over the western states. It should be slightly warmer at the end of the forecast as the risk of precipitation does decrease, but that is mostly due to the uncertainty in the actual pattern. However, an incoming trough will bring CIG down to at least marginal VFR.
836 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 Pressure gradient is tightening across the area ahead of an approaching cold front and will bring an increase in winds after midnight, and then bring breezy conditions for Friday. Winds and seas will be increasing as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front.
The next opportunity for active weather arrives this weekend as another trough moves into the western United States, bringing the potential for gusty winds across much of the area and snowfall in The Sierra. Tonight through Friday Night The upper level low that brought precipitation to the area has tracked east through Arizona and New Mexico today. Behind it, a slight ridging pattern forms over California, Nevada, and Arizona. Dry air behind the low will bring clear skies aside from some high clouds, allowing for plenty of radiative cooling through the night.
Thankfully more models are now in agreement of the slight east shift of the track of the low which will bring the deformation zone to north and eastern parts of the area. As far as temperatures go, NAM continues to be a bit of an outlier, bringing in much cooler temperatures faster allowing for a transition to snow by Friday morning. Looking at some of the shorter range models, most remain on the warmer side, limiting snowfall accumulations to under 1 inch. Surface temperatures will also quickly warm to well above freezing across the area. A strong pressure gradient can be expected on the back side of this anomalous low pressure.
437 PM MST Thu Mar 2 2023 Water vapor shows upper trof along the Pac NW coast with upper ridge extending from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. At the surface, lee trof has advanced into the western Dakotas. For Friday, weak upper trof moves through the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains by Friday night. Northwest winds will become breezy by afternoon as a cold front shifts through.
Brief mid level ridge slides overhead in advance of the next mid level wave. Highs in the lower 30s to mid 40s expected, with the warmest temperatures for those without snow cover.
Snow showers are present across the region with winds from the southwest in and along a cold frontal passage. Temperatures will cool below freezing for all elevations after sunset, setting the stage for valleys to see minor snowfall accumulations onto roadways.
Otherwise, most of the high country and some valleys are mostly clear this afternoon as northerly flow dominates the region behind the mid-level low over southern Arizona.
It is associated with a weak upper level trough moving through the area which is also bringing the southerly gusty winds through the area this evening.
506 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 (This afternoon through tonight) A warm front, moving through northern parts of the DFW metro area, will continue to lift slowly northward through the afternoon. Overall thunderstorm coverage has increased during the last hour and this trend will continue, as a compact upper low approaches far west Texas late this afternoon. If the warm front can make it far enough northward, which is beginning to appear unlikely, there may be a window of opportunity for tornadoes across far southern Oklahoma.
651 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 A low pressure system will track northeastward toward the Ohio River Valley during tonight into Friday to bring more rain.