Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Key Messages: 1) Low confidence PoP forecast but trending drier for today with a chance of storms tonight, mainly across southern sections of the service area 2) Continued warming trend with temperatures a few degrees warmer It's a tranquil early morning with weak surface ridging over the area providing clear skies and near calm winds. Highs today should be a few degrees warmer with 1-2C of warming at 925 hPa to around 24C.
615 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (Today through Tuesday) The persistent mid-level ridge of high pressure parked across New Mexico builds into this final full week of July, but not before another round or two of seabreeze convection. Drier air arrives Tuesday as the ridge gradually builds, with less seabreeze showers and thunderstorms and warmer highs.
Satellite and water vapor imagery shows just enough mid/upper level moisture is rotating around the upper level high to support convection later this afternoon into mid evening. Upper level high centered near the Four Corners will slowly move southeast today and be over New Mexico tonight. Satellite showing a substantial amount of mid and high clouds rotating around the west and north side of the high. Models have a strong upper ridge centered over northern New Mexico Tuesday.
955 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Upper level trough will dig along the West Coast into Monday and remain in place through the work week. Expect cooler conditions today and further cooling in the mid to late week.
317 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Mainly dry and hazy conditions are expected through Tuesday with weak high pressure in control.
311 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 High pressure looks to be dominant over the region must of this week. A cold front then looks to move southeast through the area later this week. Previous Discussion: With the initial area of high pressure east of our region, warm and moist air will continue to advect in. With the increasing moisture, lows look several degrees warmer tonight in the low to mid 60's.
955 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 One more hot day today with afternoon high temperatures reaching the high 90s to low 100s. A cold front moves through the region tonight into Tuesday morning bringing relief to the heat with a return to near normal temperatures and slightly cooler than average overnight lows. With northeastward moisture aloft being carried with a weak upper level disturbance ahead of a developing cold front over eastern Washington and an upper level trough over the Pacific NW and Canada, we have moderate chances (between 40 and 60 percent) of non- severe thunderstorms to develop this early afternoon across Southwest Montana then moving across Central Montana.
1233 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Mainly dry and hazy conditions are expected through Tuesday with weak high pressure in control.
(Rest of Today) High pressure overhead has resulted in blue sky day across the Tennessee Valley.
1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night ) H500 ridging to the west will remain the dominant feature through the period and as it begins to expand eastward, hotter temperatures are expected across the area. In the meantime, while it remains anchored over the Four Corners and troughing persists to the east, N/NW flow aloft will remain over the region.
1123 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 07z surface analysis had low near KPIR with warm front into eastern NE and trough into central MT. Modest low level jet supporting severe storms near warm front, east of the CWA. Water vapour loop had upper ridge centered over the four corners area with monsoonal moisture wrapping around it into the northern Plains. Several disturbances rotating around ridge and these will be the main forecast concerns as well as heat headlines. Today/tonight, upper/thermal ridge in place over the northern Plains as a disturbance rotates across northwest WY into the CWA tonight. Rich boundary moisture pools along trough creating strong buoyancy (3KJkg+ MLCAPE) with 30-40kt 0-6km bulk shear in place. Conditional supercell threat along trough, quickly exiting the CWA early in the evening.
1020 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Forecast area remains situated between high pressure centered over the Four Corners area and an upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast. A cold front associated with the trough is still on track to move through the area tonight. The morning sounding showed a very dry airmass in the lower levels so the main threat from showers and thunderstorms will be gusty outflow winds with little chance of measurable precipitation.
1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Current satellite imagery clearly shows a strong monsoonal plume of moisture pushing its way into the intermountain west on the back side of a building high pressure ridge. Orientation of this ridge indicates less of a chance for showers and thunderstorms through much of the short term with most of the better instability and forcing being pushed to the north and east of the CWA. Considering most of the short term models are indicating some decent moisture transport at the SFC- 850mb level over the next few days, Tds could be a little warmer and by extension, so too would the heat indices.
1135 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 High pressure is centered over the Colorado/New Mexico state line. Due to the proximity to the high temperatures will again be near record across the area. Gusts of 40-50 mph are possible especially given the high cloud bases and warm temperatures. Tomorrow the high drifts to the southeast over eastern New Mexico. Also, we may introduce a higher potential for a wetting rains in the higher elevations.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will be widespread with heat indices in the low 100s in the warmer spots.
Upper level troughing with southwest to west flow will persist across the area through Tuesday with the continue rounds of showers and thunderstorms mainly from around Tampa Bay northward.
1144 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (Today and tonight) We should see a hotter day today, as the core of a very strong upper level ridge moves from the Four Corners region into northern New Mexico (with the core strengthening to 600 dm) while the thermal ridge strengthens as well (850 mb temperatures 1-2 deg C higher than yesterday). Strong subsidence from the upper ridge, in combination with dry air in the afternoon, should result in a dry day, with precipitation chances less than 5 percent.
One more hot day today with afternoon high temperatures reaching the high 90s to low 100s. A cold front moves through the region tonight into Tuesday morning bringing relief to the heat with a return to near normal temperatures and slightly cooler than average overnight lows. With northeastward moisture aloft being carried with a weak upper level disturbance ahead of a developing cold front over eastern Washington and an upper level trough over the Pacific NW and Canada, we have moderate chances (between 40 and 60 percent) of non- severe thunderstorms to develop this early afternoon across Southwest Montana then moving across Central Montana.
Lows will be near normal with values tonight ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. The low pops covers the situation for now.
Otherwise, temperatures Tuesday will be similar to today with highs from the upper 80s across the Buffalo Ridge to the mid 90s along and west of the James River Valley.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Central Alabama remains on the dry side of a mid to upper level trough axis which extends southward along the East CONUS. 25 inches, expect sunny to mostly sunny skies to continue through tomorrow as the ridge over the Desert Southwest begins to gradually build eastward. Temperatures will remain on the warmer end with highs in the lower to mid 90s, and overnight lows in the 60s, but daytime RH values in the 35-45 percent range will make it feel more tolerable outside.
Temperatures in the near term will be in the low to mid 90s with feel-like values pretty close to that since the humidity is lower.
Will see quite a bit of sunshine today which should allow temps to get a bit warmer than yesterday. Upper ridging continues to build east today with temperatures climbing into the 90s over much of the area. Temperatures will climb into the low 100s across south central SD on Tuesday. However, there are some caveats in regards to cloud cover and/or ongoing morning showers that could keep highs a degree or two cooler. Tuesdays ridge rider moves east at the start of the period, though there may still be some moisture lingering in the mid levels after 00Z so cant rule out high based showers with ceilings around 600mb or just below the freezing level, with a deep dry subcloud layer and skinny CAPE/strong shear above.
(This evening through Tuesday) High pressure will strengthen across the region continuing to push temperatures to higher levels.
343 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 High pressure will prevail this week. The axis of an upper longwave trough will shift eastward, orienting itself over the region tonight.
Highly amplified upper trough over the eastern CONUS. Trough axis still west of the area but will be lifting to the north through the overnight. Short wave trough currently moving through the Upstate into NC. Lows tonight a little cooler, upper 60s to around 70. Upper troughing remains just west of the area for Tuesday but weaker than the past few days.
1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (Rest of Today) High pressure overhead has resulted in blue sky day across the Tennessee Valley.
346 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 In the mid and upper levels, a trough is situated over Quebec/Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes and Southeast CONUS while a ridge presides over the Rockies into the Plains. There is another trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. Highlight: Hot - Temps around 100 degrees Challenges: Dewpoints and associated heat indices Changes: 1) Increased overnight temps tonight and daytime temps Tuesday 2) Expanded Heat Advisory for Tuesday An eastward shift in the pattern is expected with the wave approaching the Pacific Northwest to reduce the amplification of the ridge on Tuesday.
1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Upper level ridge hanging over the Four Corners begins moving eastward today. Thus, have issued a Heat Advisory for the higher elevations as well as the Big Bend along the Rio Grande as temperatures there will hit or top 110F. With the ridge axis closer, comes more subsidence (large scale sinking air) and generally drier conditions. Lows on Tuesday morning will be a bit above normal in the mid to upper 70s for most with the higher elevations cooling into the 60s. Tuesday sees more of the same as Monday, mainly dry with temperatures maybe another degree or two warmer.
High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s thanks to the lower humidities.
By mid- afternoon upper level ridging is progged to have moved more overhead which will work drier 850-700mb air into the area which is expected to mix down and cut our available convective instability, leading to a dry and warm afternoon.
Forecast Discussion: This afternoon, a large upper level ridge was positioned from the Four Corners region eastward over portions of west KS/OK/TX, keeping conditions hot in the southern and High Plains. 19Z surface maps show high pressure near the western Great Lakes with slightly lower pressure centered over far southeast Colorado.
Hot weather continues with slight chances for showers and thunderstorms the next couple of days as our forecast area remains on the southeastern perifery of the upper ridge. Given the slight weakness in the ridge aloft and increased moisture, expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along the sea breeze this afternoon, spreading inland across the brush country by late afternoon.
Heat and humidity build through the end of the week with cold front bringing drier and cooler air over the weekend. A short wave trough will gradually approach from the west through this evening. Another very warm day on tap for Tuesday with yet another modest short wave trough approaching from the west. The 500 mb pattern across the CONUS will transition from a ridge/trough configuration to zonal flow the second half of the week.
The monsoonal high pressure will continue to meander eastward through the week.
220 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Upper level ridge axis is upon us and temperatures heated up faster than originally thought so bumped high temperatures a couple notches upward, the midpoint between the forecast and the NBM90 temperature. Winds have remained relatively light so have not upgraded to any Red Flag Warnings this afternoon, despite the warmer temperatures. Upper level trough entering the Pacific Northwest begins to shift the ridge eastward and a weak cold front moves through the area during the morning hours. At this time will maintain the Fire Weather Watch over the area as winds aren't expected to increase much and the slightly cooler temperatures increase minimum RH values so it may keep us our of Red Flag criteria, but overnight shift will have to watch and re-evaluate if necessary.
As of 205 pm EDT Monday: Heights will build across the area through the period, with the upper trough axis atop the area now expected to lift northeast to the Mid-Atlantic and Carolina coastal plain by the end of the period. PoPs of 20-30% are therefore generally confined to the Blue Ridge escarpment and vicinity both afternoons.
Little overall change to the pattern from yesterday with a mid- and upper-trough over the eastern US continuing to lead to anomalous offshore flow.
1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (Today through Tuesday) The persistent mid-level ridge of high pressure parked across New Mexico builds into this final full week of July, but not before another round or two of seabreeze convection. Drier air arrives Tuesday as the ridge gradually builds, with less seabreeze showers and thunderstorms and warmer highs.
Bowlan (Tuesday through Monday) Mid level ridging will continue to expand eastward across the area through much of the rest of the period and stay planted at least through the upcoming weekend.
The drier mid-level airmass will continue to gradually press southward on Tuesday as the southwesterly flow associated with the retreating upper trough is replaced by northerly flow of the upper ridge building in its place. Temperatures will be on the upswing as well as the ridge builds in, with highs pushing back towards the mid 90s for the northern and western portions of the forecast area.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) Upper troughing across the south, with ridging to the west will continue to influence present conditions across the Four State through the remainder of the day and heading into tonight. That being said, no significant changes are really expected outside of maxT's trending a few degrees warmer.
Moderate buoyancy is in place due to the higher dewpoints over western South Dakota but with significant MLCIN. Boundary layer moisture will pool to the east of the trough, with dewpoints in the lower 70s creating strong buoyancy over central SD (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) with 30-40kt 0-6km bulk shear in place. There is a supercell threat along trough, quickly exiting the forecast area to the east early in the evening.
148 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 The upper level ridge will move slightly to the east today centering it over our area. This will likely bring the highest temperatures of the year so far with most locations nearing 100 degrees and some locations on the plains getting near 103 degrees. There is plenty of moisture coming in over the ridge from the southwest today. Due to the high based nature of these storms and the warm midlevels, these storms will likely not be large precipitation producers.
Mid/high based moisture caught within the ridge along with surface heating over the higher terrain has triggered another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. but only spotty light rainfall amounts across the higher terrain. The upper ridge flattens out west with weak impulses riding through the flow aloft across CO. 2) Hot temperatures persist across southern Colorado with possible cooler temperatures into the weekend.
with late Tue night/the weekend currently harboring the higher chances. but more seasonable weekend on tap No change with model expectations in the upper level flow for the week - upper level ridging builds in from the plains, but continues to show more flattening compared to the amplification it had over the west coast last week. The long range guidance then continues to favor reestablishing the ridge back westward for the weekend, placing the upper mississippi river under northwest flow and relatively cooler, more seasonable air. Numerical guidance via the GFS loves +100 degrees Wed/Thu for KLSE while the EC is 10 degrees cooler. Instability on the lower end and not much for potential wind shear, at least until the weekend.
Overnight tonight and into early Tuesday morning a cold front will be moving across northwest and west-central Montana, stalling out in southwest Montana. Much of the Northern Rockies will see cooler temperatures on Tuesday behind the front.
Even warmer conditions arrive tomorrow with the return to 90 degrees likely in spots.
(This evening through Tuesday) The 598 dam upper level high positioned over the Four Corners has allowed for northerly flow to prevail over the forecast area. These clouds and southerly surface winds will help keep overnight lows fairly warm in the low to mid 70s.
1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper high will continue to push eastward today into New Mexico with increasing heights over the forecast area. A weak lee trough will develop with south southwesterly surface winds across the South Plains and Rolling Plains today. Increasing subsidence aloft paired with downsloping surface winds will allow for mixing of the warmer temperatures aloft and temperatures returning to the triple digits this afternoon. Thus PoPs have been kept below mentionable given this low probability. Tonight, the southerly surface winds will stay breezy as the low level jet increases overnight.
309 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) A boundary remains draped over central Georgia as the ridge over the southwest becomes more amplified and a trough over the eastern US bringing northwest flow to the forecast area.
240 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 This Afternoon through Tomorrow: The influence from mid- and upper-level ridge of high pressure prevailing over the region can be seen easiest in the fair weather cumulus field spread over the region today - radiating out in an anticyclonic direction from a point between Cleveland and Greenwood, MS.
1201 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 High pressure looks to be dominant over the region must of this week. A cold front then looks to move southeast through the area later this week. Previous Discussion: With the initial area of high pressure east of our region, warm and moist air will continue to advect in. With the increasing moisture, lows look several degrees warmer tonight in the low to mid 60's.
107 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2023 COOLER THIS WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA), VALID 1 PM PDT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOCALLY GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AT TIMES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Tuesday Night/ The heat is on again as a mid level ridge expands and overspreads the Southern Plains and will likely remain there through the week. High temperatures will top out between 100-105 today and may be a touch warmer on Tuesday. The current heat advisory addresses the high temperatures to the west and may be expanded a bit for Tuesday.
213 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Upper ridge centered over the southern Rockies will be in control through the short term period.
As a result, afternoon mixing has allowed for dewpoints to drop considerably into the lower to middle 60's for many locations. Forecast highs are on track to top out in the lower to middle 90's for most locations today. Anticipate highs topping out in the middle 90's once again with afternoon dewpoints again cratering into the lower to middle 60's.
140 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 High pressure looks to be dominant over the region must of this week. A cold front then looks to move southeast through the area later this week. Previous Discussion: With the initial area of high pressure east of our region, warm and moist air will continue to advect in. With the increasing moisture, lows look several degrees warmer tonight in the low to mid 60's.
High pressure will then prevail through late week. We did however trim back afternoon POPs across the far interior SC counties where it is a bit cooler and less unstable. Near term guidance indicates that the axis of longwave trough will approach from west today, passing over the region tonight.
Influence from the mid- and upper-level high pressure prevailing over the region can be seen easiest in the fair weather cumulus field springing up across the region - fanning out in an anticyclonic direction from a point centered over Cleveland, MS. /NF/ Today and Tonight: An upper level trough will continue to be stalled across the region today keeping some low end rain chances mainly along the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile inland, conditions will be relatively quiet as drier and cooler air thanks to this longwave trough will keep our PWAT values around 1 inch areawide. Temperatures will be around average summer values with highs in the low 90s this afternoon. Low relative humidity (around 15%) and dew points in the low 60s will help suppress our heat indices today. Low temperatures will range from the high 60s to low 70s.
(Tonight) Another nice night is in store for the TN Valley with high pressure in control of the region at the sfc.
Overnight temps dipping into the low 50s may be able to support patchy fog developing, mainly across interior central and east. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the Pacific NW and a ridge across the Rockies and southern and central plains 12z Tue. A trough by Lake Winnipeg 00z Thu moves across Ontario on Thu. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the central and southern plains 12z Fri with a belt of westerlies across the northern U. Upper ridging builds into the northern Rockies 12z Sat. The ridge then builds into the northern plains 12z Sun through 12z Mon as troughing moves into the eastern U.
Getting hot and humid Tue with highs in the lower 90s and afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100F, highest over MS river valley. Highs Wed in the low to mid 90s with afternoon heat indices of 99-104F.
Although a few sprinkles of rain will be possible across the northern portion of our three Middle TN counties for the next hour or so, we expect dry conditions for the remainder of the overnight period, as the axis of a mid-level longwave trough shifts slowly eastward.
Deep layer ridging across south FL lifts north into central FL by late in the day and continues slowly north into north-central FL overnight. Weak mid-level troughing does continue across the eastern CONUS for much of this period as it is sandwiched in between the strong mid/upper-level ridging across the western U. - which does spread its influence eastward during this time - and mid-level ridging across the western Atlc. Winds AOB 15 kts with an onshore flow regime returning Wed-Fri as the ridge axis lifts northward.
(This evening through Tuesday) A boundary remains draped over central Georgia as the ridge over the southwest becomes more amplified and a trough over the eastern US bringing northwest flow to the forecast area.
(Tuesday through Monday) Mid level ridging will continue to expand eastward across the area through much of the rest of the period and stay planted at least through the upcoming weekend.
955 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 The surface front and area of low pressure over central NC through tonight should finally move eastward and out of the area Tuesday.