Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High clouds continue to stream in from the west as the upper level ridge pushes eastward. Upper level analysis places ridge over the northern plains, with trough over the Pacific Northwest nudging over the northern Rockies. To the west, some higher clouds are starting to push into the area coming up the back side of the upper ridge. Notable short wave zips through in conjunction with this system which will bring the potential for some light precipitation (possibly a little light snow or a little freezing rain).
520 PM CST Sun Feb 5 2023 High pressure remains in control into tonight as an upper trough ejects eastward aloft. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer with the increases in moisture and we fall into the 40s F for lows. Monday continues the warming trend and remains dry as upper level energy largely remains to our north and we remain under the influence of broad surface ridging.
659 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 Drier air will be moving into the area tonight as low pressure moves away from the region.
457 PM MST Sun Feb 5 2023 Broad upper trof moving into the Great Basin this afternoon as the flow aloft shifts and increases from the southwest tonight. Across the rest of the north central mountains, snowfall will be delayed to mostly after midnight until the trof moves across with more favored west and northwest flow at mountain top level. Across lower elevations, skies will be mostly clear tonight ahead of the trof under southwest flow. Surface cold front will move across the plains during the mid to late morning hours but airmass initially still dry in the low levels. With subsidence developing behind the trof Monday afternoon expect gusty northerly winds up to 40 mph on the plains. Cold advection with the trof but there will be better low level mixing on the plains which will result in similar readings as today.
621 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 (This evening through Monday) Some partial cloud cover will cross the area tonight as a weak surface cold front and upper trough move through. Tomorrow will be sunny as the upper trough exits and a large ridge builds in from the west.
The upper-level low pressure system has started to move out of the area. Mid-level high pressure will begin to build into NERN PAC this evening, promoting dry conditions.
At the surface, cold front extends from the Central Great Lakes through Southern IA and into western ND. Lee troughing is also starting to take shape from Eastern WY down into Eastern NM. This will result in strong warm advection across southern and southeast KS on Mon and even with plenty of cloud cover, most locations should see highs in the low 60s. Meanwhile over Central KS a cold front will be moving into the area late Mon afternoon. Still not looking like an impactful winter event with mostly rain with a brief period of rain/snow mix Wed morning, with freezing rain or sleet not anticipated. Breezy southwest winds will prevail across southeast KS on Monday while a cold front advances into central KS shifting winds to the northwest.
357 PM CST Sun Feb 5 2023 (Issued 335 PM CST Sun Feb 5 2023) Tonight through Monday night: High pressure will move in on the heels of the cold front that moved through this past morning. Tomorrow winds will become southeasterly and increasingly breezy going into the afternoon as a low lvl jet moves overhead ahead of an approaching, occluding low pressure system. Ovenight, the low will lift north and east, bringing warm air northward along with an occluded front. Rain will be likely along the front, as there won't be any saturation in the DGZ and most of the low lvl temp profile will be above freezing. Some freezing rain may be possible toward Green Lake, Marquette, and Fond du Lac counties for a brief period at the onset of precipitation before WAA northward warms the sfc environment.
An upper level trough is moving over Idaho currently. For these areas, additional snow is expected of 1 to 3 inches in valleys and 3 to 7 inches for ridgetops, with up around 10 inches for the Albion mountains. High pressure starts building back in from the west late tonight through Monday. With high pressure returning, patchy fog is possible Monday morning across the Upper Snake plain.
Mild and relatively tranquil weather will continue into the work week, with a weak, dry cold front dropping out of the Upper Midwest and pushing through the Ohio Valley tonight. This afternoon has been cloudy and breezy as a pre-frontal trof pushes eastward through the area. With the passage of that trof axis and gradually rising heights, skies will clear and winds will diminish this evening. Slightly cooler and drier air will filter in from the north later tonight. Bigger sensible wx difference for most, other than temps a few degrees cooler than this morning, may simply be more frost to scrape off the windshield in the morning.
An upper trough continues to dig southeast over southern OR and northern CA bringing scattered showers to much of the region. The short term models are in agreement that the bulk of the shower activity will shift east into the evening hours as the upper trough slips southeast out of the region.
737 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 A weak passing cold front will temper the areawide warm up with low chances for light rain and drizzle tonight into Monday morning. However, precipitation is likely to dissipate soon thereafter as high pressure returns and lift shifts east, keeping little to no accumulation. If this does occur before precipitation ends AND surface temperature sneaks below freezing (both less than 20% prob of occurring), the a brief period of freezing drizzle could develop. Otherwise, high pressure and dry weather will resume the rest of the day Monday, with enough cold advection to drop area temperatures about 5 degrees from todays readings as insolation will be limited to late day breaks.
Forecast Highlights: -Warm and windy weather is anticipated tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front. A mid-level trough is also positioned over the central US this afternoon. A large scale mid-level trough over the western US will bring changes to our weather starting tomorrow. Efficient WAA should make for another warm day, but have opted to go slightly cooler than guidance due to possible lingering cloud cover. A line of showers could then develop along the cold front as it works through east- central KS tomorrow evening, so have gone with slight chance POPs near and south of I-35.
203 PM MST Sun Feb 5 2023 Broad upper trof moving into the Great Basin this afternoon as the flow aloft shifts and increases from the southwest tonight. Across the rest of the north central mountains, snowfall will be delayed to mostly after midnight until the trof moves across with more favored west and northwest flow at mountain top level. Across lower elevations, skies will be mostly clear tonight ahead of the trof under southwest flow. Surface cold front will move across the plains during the mid to late morning hours but airmass initially still dry in the low levels. With subsidence developing behind the trof Monday afternoon expect gusty northerly winds up to 40 mph on the plains. Cold advection with the trof but there will be better low level mixing on the plains which will result in similar readings as today.
A cold front will move across northern Arizona tonight and Monday with breezy to windy conditions and scattered light rain showers and light snow showers. Temperatures will be much cooler on Monday. The cold front is moving across western Utah and far northwestern Arizona this afternoon. Winds stay mixed tonight as the cold front approach the area, with some scattered, upslope snow showers pushing from NW to SE overnight and into Monday. The trough will weaken as it moves across the state tonight and Monday.
804 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 Drier air will be moving into the area tonight as low pressure moves away from the region.
Today and Tonight: Upper troughing will depart and allow deep ridging to take hold across the region.
Beginning to see more widespread areas of dense fog under the low cloud cover across much of the eastern part of the CWA.
Generally clear skies and light winds are forecast, with lows cooling into the low/mid 30s. Dewpoint values in the low/mid 30s are also expected.
(Today through Tuesday) Upper-level ridging today will make for a beautiful day with light winds, mostly clear skies, and temperatures warming up into the low 60's. Low temperatures tonight will even be relatively warm in the low 40's thanks in part to southerly surface winds. Continued WAA courtesy of the southerly surface flow will keep warm temperatures on Tuesday as highs warm into the low to mid-60's.
Latest data coming in right now indicates a chance of freezing rain Monday night along the US-10 corridor. If we do see some freezing precipitation over the northern cwa Monday night, models indicate it would be only a 4-5 hr window after midnight. - Showers and gusty winds Monday Night to Tuesday AM with possible mix/ZR near Route 10 Ludington to near Clare A cold front will be tracking eastward through the region during this time. We will maintain the high POPs though. surface temperatures will be near freezing.
Short Term Update - The previously mentioned low pressure system will race northeastward off the Atlantic Coast. Behind this low, a long reaching ridge will consolidate over the eastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure consolidating over the eastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico will result in winds remaining light out of the north through the overnight period. Looking a bit ahead, the ridge will build eastward resulting in winds freshening and veering east northeasterly.
As this high pressure slowly pushes southeastward off the Carolina coastline through mid-week, pleasant weather with rain-free conditions as well as above average temperatures are expected across west central and southwest Florida.
temperatures have overachieved again today with many locations into the lower 50s as of 19Z. The quiet weather pattern will continue with the frontal passage this afternoon creating little impact other than a wind shift and slightly cooler temperatures for tonight and Monday. High level clouds will gradually increase during the afternoon as a cold front moves through the central and northern Plains. Low level thermals support highs generally 5 degrees cooler than today for Monday. A weak cold front will move into the area late Monday night into Tuesday, stalling near the Ohio Valley. Upper level support will be modest at best as the primary upper wave will pass well to our north across the Great Lakes, with an ongoing split between the northern wave and a strengthening closed low ejecting eastward out of the Four Corners region.
328 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 A cold front moves across today bringing brief mountain drizzle and light snow showers early this morning. An upper level low is currently evident on Water Vapor imagery traveling across western Pennsylvania. This low travels east through the morning, pulling a colder air mass across West Virginia. A ridge builds across this afternoon from the west bringing dry conditions; however, temperatures will be cooler today and tonight as northwesterly flow aloft persists. Low stratus streams across early today, with scattering during the afternoon as subsidence drying occurs as the ridge flattens on an eastward path.
A short wave trough over the NE US will push offshore and out into the western Atlantic, allowing a mid level high pressure ridge to build northward into Florida from the Caribbean. At the surface, a large high pressure ridge will build over the eastern CONUS behind the rapidly departing Atlantic low. Mostly sunny and dry with near normal highs in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s, except upper 40s in northern Lake/Volusia, and upper 50-low 60s along the immediate Treasure Coast.
Northern portions will see a wintry mix of freezing rain/drizzle and snow.
Frequent gusts of 30 to 40 mph will are expected with these stronger winds persisting across the higher terrain areas through the evening. Cold front moves into NE OK around sunset and to near a KFYV-KMLC line by sunrise Tuesday.
Mild and relatively tranquil weather will continue into the work week, with a weak, dry cold front dropping out of the Upper Midwest and pushing through the Ohio Valley tonight. This afternoon has been cloudy and breezy as a pre-frontal trof pushes eastward through the area. With the passage of that trof axis and gradually rising heights, skies will clear and winds will diminish this evening. Slightly cooler and drier air will filter in from the north later tonight. Bigger sensible wx difference for most, other than temps a few degrees cooler than this morning, may simply be more frost to scrape off the windshield in the morning. Expect temps to reach the upper 50s and low 60s, with the warmer readings expected south of the KY Pkwys.
1103 PM CST Sun Feb 5 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) Westerly upper flow tonight will gradually back around from a more southwesterly direction Monday into Monday night as a trough digs down into the Four Corners region. Winds aloft will also increase ahead of the trough and strong winds are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning has been issued. The warmth will be short lived as the trough continues moving southeast and pushes a cold front into West Texas and eastern New Mexico Monday night into Tuesday morning.
1256 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 Drier air will be moving into the area tonight as low pressure moves away from the region.
With temperatures right around freezing, some of the fog could be of the freezing variety. A very weak cold frontal feature draped across the northern border of the CWA will quickly be washed out by increasing southerly flow. A weak cold front will push into the region from the northwest Tuesday morning into the afternoon.
Upper ridging will strengthen over the Mississippi river valley this morning, then shift east towards the Appalachians this evening and overnight in response to strong troughing over the western CONUS. Winds in the valley likely remain light enough for us to see temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s once again, but elevated areas in the plateau and also the southern TN mountains likely wind up in the inversion and stay in the 40s.
1231 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2023 Quiet conditions will persist across the forecast area tonight, as high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft sit across the region. With moisture continuing to increase, conditions overnight will be slightly warmer, with patchy fog possible across the CWA early Monday morning. /19/ High pressure remains in control into tonight as an upper trough ejects eastward aloft. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer with the increases in moisture and we fall into the 40s F for lows. Monday continues the warming trend and remains dry as upper level energy largely remains to our north and we remain under the influence of broad surface ridging.
Temps this afternoon will top off in the upper 50s north of US Highway 36, and into the lower 60s to the south. This trough will begin to dig into the Four Corners region Monday morning, allowing strong WAA to spill across the forecast area. Afternoon highs should easily rise into the lower 60s by the afternoon, with the mid 60s possible south of Interstate 70. The upper-level trough will continue to swing east over the Central Plains Monday afternoon, quickly pushing through a cold front. This cold front is expected to exit the CWA early Tuesday morning, dropping the morning lows into the 30s.
1001 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 Drier air will be moving into the area tonight as low pressure moves away from the region.
A nearly saturated sfc-850mb layer, combined with upslope flow, supports leaning toward the higher HREF POPs over the Alleghenies, rather than the those of the NBM. Model soundings are warm enough initially produce light rain showers or drizzle, then become marginally cold enough to support snow showers over the high terrain of the Alleghenies late tonight. Can't rule out a light coating of snow over the highest ridgetops late tonight.
The showers were near the back end of the upper trough over Idaho. As the trough moves east light but measurable amounts of pcpn should fall on all the Snake Basin and points southward during the night, ending along the ID/NV border around sunrise. On Monday our CWA will come under cooler drier northerly flow aloft as a short wave Pacific ridge comes in.
1259 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 A weak cold front will move through early today.
The upper low that brought showers and thunderstorms has exited to the south and east. Skies have cleared and temperatures have dropped, with lows at 2 am about 5 to 14 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time. Lows in the Valley will range from around freezing near Redding to the mid to upper 30s further south.
514 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2023 (Today and tonight) Southwest flow is set to amplify today ahead of a positively-tilted trough progged to settle over the Four Corners by this evening. This wave originated within a split flow regime over the Pacific NW yesterday and its northern counterpart will be responsible for sending us a strong cold front tonight. Ahead of the front, a low- level thermal ridge will sharpen over our domain today within dry and breezy downslope flow. The cold front will be sweeping through the TX Panhandle this evening and be well through the Permian Basin by daybreak Tuesday.
Very warm temperatures are expected by this afternoon within this trough, with near 80 F possible across portions of western north TX. Further east, low level moisture advection will continue and dewpoints should make it into at least the mid 50s east of I-44 before the cold front arrives late this evening.
Although we've seen some warmer days, areas without a solid crust on snowpack and areas with strongest winds may see some patchy blowing/drifting snow. Outside of the NAM and the NAMNest, low level moisture with the WAA and vorticity advection ahead of the trough remains lackluster for any precip other than drizzle or a sprinkle at best for areas east of I-29 this afternoon and this evening. Could see some freezing drizzle for a bit near the Buffalo Ridge as temperatures are within a degree or so of freezing. Cold front swings through late this afternoon and evening.
555 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Upper-level ridging today will make for a beautiful day with light winds, mostly clear skies, and temperatures warming up into the low 60's. Low temperatures tonight will even be relatively warm in the low 40's thanks in part to southerly surface winds. Continued WAA courtesy of the southerly surface flow will keep warm temperatures on Tuesday as highs warm into the low to mid-60's.
647 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 A cold front moves across today bringing brief mountain drizzle and light snow showers early this morning. A few adjustments were made to reflect warmer temperatures trends as the front is moving a little slower than previously anticipated. An upper level low is currently evident on Water Vapor imagery traveling across western Pennsylvania. This low travels east through the morning, pulling a colder air mass across West Virginia. A ridge builds across this afternoon from the west bringing dry conditions; however, temperatures will be cooler today and tonight as northwesterly flow aloft persists. Low stratus streams across early today, with scattering during the afternoon as subsidence drying occurs as the ridge flattens on an eastward path.
For today, despite partly to mostly cloudy skies we will warm up rather quickly as southerly low-level WAA occurs ahead of a deepening mid-level trough. Thus, as the profile saturates from the top down, wet-bulbing should cool the warm nose to sub-freezing where sub-freezing surface temperatures exist. Meanwhile a transition to rain/snow mix is expected across south- central and central MN where temperatures will be near freezing. (A chance of some freezing rain does exist within this transition zone as the low-level thermal profile does straddle very close to freezing. ) The precipitation will grow in area and travel east-northeast ahead of the trough, finally exiting our region late Monday night. Thus while freezing rain is less likely, travel impacts could still occur due to wet/slick roads.
Upper level ridging will be dominant from this morning through early Tuesday morning, with calm winds and dry weather.
440 AM MST Mon Feb 6 2023 The cold front is making it's way across the CWA early this morning. The front should be through all but the SE corner of the CWA by sunrise but we still have the upper trough to move through this morning. That won't be the case behind the front today with temperatures likely at least 20 degrees cooler in Delta this afternoon. The snow should wrap up through the evening as the trough axis and PV aloft drops south of the Colorado border and we begin to push warm back in aloft. Dry conditions return for Tuesday as high another transitory ridge is pushed through ahead of the next clipper to drop into the Northern Rockies.
Tightening pressure gradient across the central US today ahead of a trough moving into Manitoba and western Ontario will create windy conditions across the region today. Speaking of warm air advection 925 hpa temperatures are expected to warm into the lower teens today, and after exceeding expectations temperature- wise yesterday, have raised forecast highs well into the 60s south of highway 36 (to near 75% of model guidance). Areas north will still be unseasonably mild, but with the potential for a bit more cloud cover, have kept temperatures in the lower 60s there. Could see enough convergence along with the low level moisture to get a few showers along the front. Much cooler air spreads across the region behind the front overnight. This will result in cooler conditions Tuesday, though temperatures still remain above normal.
This is associated with the broad, splitting trough moving through the northern and central Rockies. The trough axis has already moved into far eastern Montana. The winds will increase today behind the trough.
(Today and tonight) Southwest flow is set to amplify today ahead of a positively-tilted trough progged to settle over the Four Corners by this evening. This wave originated within a split flow regime over the Pacific NW yesterday and its northern counterpart will be responsible for sending us a strong cold front tonight. Ahead of the front, a low- level thermal ridge will sharpen over our domain today within dry and breezy downslope flow. The cold front will be sweeping through the TX Panhandle this evening and be well through the Permian Basin by daybreak Tuesday.
Breezy northerly winds are expected across the region today as an upper-level trough moves through the area. This trough will clear out of the region on Tuesday with ridging building in behind it.
Model soundings become well mixed to at least 900mb, where forecast temps between -1C and -3C support highs ranging from the mid 30s over the N Mtns/Laurels to the upper 40s over the Lower Susq Valley. A tightening pressure gradient associated with deepening low pressure well off the Mid Atlc coast should result in breezy conditions today, especially over the eastern 1/2 of the CWA. Ridging at the surface and aloft will ensure fair weather and diminishing wind tonight. 20 inches over the NW Mtns, to nothing over much of the Lower Susq Valley.
510 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2023 Areas of dense freezing fog have continued to expand over the MO Bootheel area. Coordinated with WFOs Memphis and Little Rock to issue Freezing Fog/Dense Fog Advisories across this area and locations to the south through 15z. Also seeing brief vsby drops further northeast across southern IL into northwest KY, so added a mention of patchy freezing fog through 15z for these locations. With temperatures right around freezing, some of the fog could be of the freezing variety. A very weak cold frontal feature draped across the northern border of the CWA will quickly be washed out by increasing southerly flow. A weak cold front will push into the region from the northwest Tuesday morning into the afternoon.