Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1246 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) A weakness aloft will remain over the region through the short-term, splitting the upper level ridge over the southwest U. and sub- tropical ridge over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and Florida. During the remainder of the afternoon through sunset development of stray to isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible where this higher moisture pool is located through northern and southeastern areas of the CWA. The higher pool of 1. High temperatures tomorrow are forecast in the low 90s across the Hill Country and mid to upper 90s for most other locations.
A gradual cooling trend will occur through the week over Central California as high pressure aloft flattens. Sweltering heat that accosted Central California over the last few days will moderate today as the strong ridge of high pressure loses influence over the district.
The area looks to be in the battle zone with a low amplitude ridge over the southern CONUS and the upper jet moving through the Plains and Great Lakes. high confidence on mainly dry weather Dry but very warm and somewhat humid conditions will be seen on Tuesday as high pressure moves across the area.
(Today through Tuesday) A mid to upper level trough extends from the Great Lakes to central Texas this morning. The upper trough has split the subtropical ridge over Texas and this split will remain as the trough moves slowly to the east during the short term period. This weakening of the upper ridge will allow convection to develop during the daytime today and tomorrow. The weaker subsidence will also allow temperatures to remain moderate with highs today mainly in the lower to upper 90 and triple digits confined to the south central and southwestern parts of the CWA.
This past nights cold front has already cooled off the area, and a secondary frontal passage early this afternoon will bring a reinforced shot of cold air with it. with isolated severe storms expected across south-central MT, and scattered severe storms across southeast MT, the latter having higher potential as instability will be much greater, especially with a later timing of the cold front, and strong upslope flow into the Bighorn Mountains and foothills. Widespread showers will persist through Tuesday afternoon, with no chance of severe storms, and only a small chance for strong storms, especially since highs will only be in the low to mid 60s.
1148 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Upper air analysis shows height falls in the mid and upper levels across the region as the upper level ridge continues to flatten and weaken. For the remainder of the short term forecast, the upper level ridge will continue to weaken and flatten out. However, with the upper level ridge weakening, less of a cap will allow daytime heating, and various meso-scale boundaries, to work with the moisture to produce clouds that will eventually form into scattered shower and thunderstorm activity.
- Slightly cooler temperatures with a more active pattern expected late week.
A cold front is expected to drift south across our region by the weekend which should cool temperatures a few degrees. Another convectively active day on tap as a weak cold front crosses from the northwest.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday/ As a stagnant upper trough axis lingers overhead, another day of isolated/scattered thunderstorms is expected across much of the region. /Issued 318 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023/ /Monday Night Onward/ The first week of July will feature seasonably hot temperatures as the upper level ridge, centered over the Desert Southwest, gradually builds east each day.
The frontal boundary will lift north as a warm front on Tuesday with more showers and thunderstorms expected to develop across the entire Mid-South.
(Monday night through Tuesday night) Upper level ridge will continue to weaken and shift southeast away from the region at the beginning of the upcoming week. With the ridge losing its influence on the local weather, and broad cyclonic flow moving into the southern tier of the US, we'll begin to see a slow increase in rain chances through the upcoming week.
Upper ridging will continue to flatten today as a trough passes to our north. Considering the passing trough to our north, this makes sense as the best Synoptic scale support will be to our north.
The benign weather is due to ridging both at the surface and aloft over the Great Lakes that is occurring downstream of a deep trough moving through the Canadian Prairies. Tuesday looks to be a dry day with ridging firmly in control of the area weather.
Meanwhile, deep layer shear will also increase as mid level winds ratchet up as upper trof digs into the northern tier states. Temperatures will also be cooler today and much cooler on Tuesday in the post frontal airmass.
1135 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (This evening through Monday night) Tonight through Monday night, the upper level ridge starts to break down over the area and a boundary sets up. For tomorrow, not expecting severe weather given the low shear and lack of forcing. Thanks to the increased rain chances for tomorrow and greater chance of cloud cover too, this should finally keep the heat at bay! Conditions tomorrow are finally going to be trending down with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s with heat index values between 100 and 105 expected for the most part across the area.
As for temperatures, as that surface front pushes at least through northern portions of our area, look for highs today to be a few degrees cooler than those experienced yesterday, mainly upper 80s to lower 90s, low to mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs Tuesday, Independence Day, are expected to be slightly warmer be still should generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90 range, mid 80s for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region.
351 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Today and Tonight: Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around an upper level high to our southeast and a broad positively tilted trough to our northwest. Our normal highs run in the lower 90s. Temperatures are expected to top out near normal at most locations but our southern zones may to out a couple degrees warmer than normal. Our normal lows run in the lower 70s. The low temperatures tonight will bottom our a couple degrees warmer than normal again. /22/ An active pattern will continue across the region through the weekend thanks to weak upper level troughing and a couple of disturbances.
Weak high pressure will then build into the area on the Fourth of July, with a return to mainly dry weather. Mid-level trough begins to pull away Monday night and with the loss of diurnal influences convection should dwindle overnight. while it looks drier, lingering moisture and residual effects from the departing trough will likely promote a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon.
Some residual convection is occurring across northern portions of the area closer to the midlevel trough and where a small amount of diurnally driven instability remains. The upper trough and cold front will work with the instability building across central Indiana to produce numerous showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms. However, with the upper trough and cold front in the area, some rainfall will be around. With the front and rain, low temperatures will be cooler than last night's, with lows in the middle to upper 60s expected. The upper trough will still have some influence across the area on Monday, especially east. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s.
2) Warmer and drier for Monday. Warming and drying aloft and subsidence behind the passing wave will lead to an expected down day in convection, with mainly isolated high based showers and storms expected over and near the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon. Warming aloft and less expected convection to lead to temperatures warming to at and above seasonal levels, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s across the plains and mainly in the 60s to low 80s across the higher terrain. The heat will combine with a south moving cold front to bring a return to thunderstorms. Cold front is progd to reach the Palmer Divide around midday Tuesday (a few hours quicker compared to yesterday's runs). Northern half of CWA and the higher terrain is where convective initiation is expected during the afternoon.
The frontal boundary will remain in the area on Wed becoming a focus for showers and storms while some cooler air anticipated in the wake of the front with highs in the 70s for much of western Kansas while those in eastern Kansas see highs in the 90s once again. A rather active weather pattern is anticipated as we move through the latter portion of the week and into the upcoming weekend as we remain on the northern periphery of the mid/upper ridge on the southern fringe of the enhanced mid-lvl flow. Below normal temperatures will prevail at the beginning of the period but we may see more influence from the mid/upper ridge over the weekend with a return to more seasonable temperatures with continued chances for showers and storms.
(Today through Tuesday) Upper ridging is continuing to get suppressed southward, as an upper trough extends from Ohio to Texas. Another ridge was developing near Las Vegas, with troughing over the Pacific Northwest. With the upper ridge breaking down, at least temporarily, we'll transition into a bit of a wetter pattern, although it won't be very noticeable today.
Weak cold front crosses this afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of an approaching weak cold front / low amplitude H500 troughing late this morning into this afternoon. The cold front clears the region to the east this evening, with showery activity becoming confined to the higher terrain.
1111 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Current water vapor imagery shows a wound up short wave trough moving across the Midwest. Instability associated with the cooler air aloft with this wave is producing widely scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two across parts of central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois. Farther south, more convection is firing along the actual cold front stretched out across southeast Missouri.
/Issued 1254 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023/ /Through Tuesday/ As a stagnant upper trough axis lingers overhead, another day of isolated/scattered thunderstorms is expected across much of the region.
1031 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Latest sfc analysis shows sfc trof has cleared all but far sern part of the CWA, with some agitated CU developing over the Black Hills. Sfc winds across the sern part of the CWA are beginning to turn more SW in direction in response to approaching sfc trof.
High pressure will build over the region today following the passage of a cold front that will become stalled across the Mid-South. The highest PoPs (25-45%) will be across southern parts of southeast MO and west KY as well as south of Route 13 in southern IL. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 90s, with dew points in the lower to middle 70s.
Discussion: A well defined upper trough is currently advancing across the Ohio River valley. A weak surface cold front is located from near the eastern Great Lakes to the western Ohio River valley. The upper trough will continue to move east and will be near the East Coast by the end of the period, while the weak cold front will sag southeast into our area.
325 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A slow moving upper level trough will push through Pennsylvania early this week.
1222 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) Upper level high pressure continues to hold some sway over our area. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening, mainly over the higher terrain, but any rain amounts will be on the lower side. Storms will slowly move eastward towards the lower elevations where conditions are less favorable for organized storm activity.
222 AM MDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A cold front moved through the forecast area overnight with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning before high pressure moves into NE Montana in the late morning. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler today with highs in the 70s in most areas. Upper trough moves into the area tonight with a cold front.
Cooler temperatures behind frontal boundary should lead to highs some 5-10 degrees cooler than today.
However upper ridging that in part brought very warm and hot conditions in the latter portion of last week and this weekend, has been replaced by a disturbance laden westerly upper flow. With CAPES rising into the 2000-3000 J/kg range and surface dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and the soundings hinting at an invert-V profile, the stronger storms again could produce strong to severe outflow winds.
Forcing from low pressure will wane considerably as it shifts east and weakens and overall moisture content will decrease as drier northwesterly flow sets up in its wake. Expect high temperatures to edge back into the lower 80s in many locations as sunshine will be more plentiful overall even as showers dot the area.
An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for the lower deserts through Independence Day, as afternoon temperatures are expected to exceed 115 degrees for high temperatures. The Desert Southwest remains under dry conditions early this morning as ridging off to the west bringing light northerly flow. Positive height anomalies over the region due to a spacious 591 dam ridge overhead will result in continued excessive heat conditions across the region over the next couple of days. There remains a 30-50% chance that the high temperature reaches or exceeds the record high temperature of 116 degrees at Sky Harbor for today (July 3rd). Going into Independence Day, ridging across the region will flatten/weaken slightly and be centered along the AZ/NM border, as negative height anomalies associated with a digging trough extend across the Intermountain West.
649 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 After showers and scattered storms end early tonight, conditions will be mainly dry through Tuesday with temperatures becoming very warm on the 4th of July, Highs today will be in the lower 80s, warming to the upper 80s Tuesday.
* A much better chance for thunderstorms, some of which will likely be severe, is anticipated with a cold front late Tuesday afternoon/night. * Temperatures will spike ahead of this cold front Tuesday afternoon, with heat index values topping 100 degrees in spots.
532 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Expansive area of IFR/LIFR stratus has developed in the wake of a departing low pressure system given the residual low-level moisture combined with early morning clearing and calm to light winds. Forcing from low pressure will wane considerably as it shifts east and weakens and overall moisture content will decrease as drier northwesterly flow sets up in its wake. Expect high temperatures to edge back into the lower 80s in many locations as sunshine will be more plentiful overall even as showers dot the area.
Monday night, southerly winds should organize over the region as high pressure retreats southeast and some slightly higher dewpoints should advect northward for Tuesday morning. A cold pool driven cluster of storms may also outrun a cold front over MN and make a run toward central WI, dying as they run into less shear and CAPE. While humidity won't be overly oppressive, it will still feel sticky and highs will likely reach the low to mid 90s as an upper level ridge builds over the state, making hydration essential during prolonged exposure outdoors.
633 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A slow moving upper level trough will push through Pennsylvania early this week.
(Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat index values today and tomorrow ranging from 110- 114 degrees As an upper-level high pressure sits over the Desert Southwest and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, an upper-level trough will extend southward into West Texas from the Mid-West region.
543 AM MDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Water vapor imagery showing much drier airmass has infiltrated Northern Colorado under building ridge of high pressure. Today looks to be a mainly dry day with warmer temperatures. Expect temperatures on the plains will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and looks to be the warmest day of the week under the thermal ridge. For tonight, ridge flattens with increasing westerly flow aloft and approaching upper trof over the Northern Rockies. In advance of the trof, there is some weak QG forcing tonight so would expect isolated to scattered showers and possibly a stray thunderstorm moving across the northern mountains. Models differ a bit but expect a weak cold front to move north to south across the plains later tonight and early Tuesday morning.
723 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A slow moving upper level trough will push through Pennsylvania early this week.
Very hot above normal daytime temperatures for early July will continue this week under high pressure aloft. High pressure aloft will continue to be the dominant weather feature and bring very hot temperatures to the area.
901 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A slow moving upper level trough will push through Pennsylvania early this week.
639 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Today and Tonight: Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around an upper level high to our southeast and a broad positively tilted trough to our northwest. Our normal highs run in the lower 90s. Temperatures are expected to top out near normal at most locations but our southern zones may to out a couple degrees warmer than normal. Our normal lows run in the lower 70s. The low temperatures tonight will bottom our a couple degrees warmer than normal again. /22/ An active pattern will continue across the region through the weekend thanks to weak upper level troughing and a couple of disturbances.
Despite light and variable winds, temperatures today will rebound a bit from yesterday's cooler conditions. A majority of the deterministic as well as CAMs develop a warm front across southern Missouri and lift it northward through the day. This will usher in increasing low level moisture as well as warmer temperatures. Byrd Active weather pattern moves in for mid to late week as a trough deepens over the Northern Rockies and slides east into the Great Lakes region.
courtesy of high pressure that will reach into our region from the Ohio valley.
High pressure will build over Arizona, bringing the hottest temperatures of the year through the middle of this week. The hottest day of the year so far is in store today as high pressure aloft centers over northern Arizona. Temperatures will be close to or a couple degrees warmer than yesterday, but will largely remain a couple degrees shy of any record highs. No changes were made to the existing Heat Warnings for the lower Grand Canyon and lower Yavapai county.
615 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat index values today and tomorrow ranging from 110- 114 degrees As an upper-level high pressure sits over the Desert Southwest and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, an upper-level trough will extend southward into West Texas from the Mid-West region.
620 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge currently centered over the lower Colorado River valley will slowly edge east today resulting in minor height rises overhead.
356 AM MDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Water vapor imagery showing much drier airmass has infiltrated Northern Colorado under building ridge of high pressure. Today looks to be a mainly dry day with warmer temperatures. Expect temperatures on the plains will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and looks to be the warmest day of the week under the thermal ridge. For tonight, ridge flattens with increasing westerly flow aloft and approaching upper trof over the Northern Rockies. In advance of the trof, there is some weak QG forcing tonight so would expect isolated to scattered showers and possibly a stray thunderstorm moving across the northern mountains. Models differ a bit but expect a weak cold front to move north to south across the plains later tonight and early Tuesday morning.
A cold front moving through Tuesday will bring temperatures back down to near normal with highs in valleys generally in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Another round of isolated dry thunderstorms aided by an upper- level trough in Idaho is expected across portions eastern Nevada this afternoon. Winds will pick up form the west in response to the trough moving eastward across Idaho. A weak cold front will also move through the area beginning late Monday night across northwestern Nevada through the day on Tuesday farther south and east. This will bring north winds for most locations for Independence Day along with slightly cooler temperatures, especially across far northern Nevada. Highs for Independence Day will be a few degrees cooler. Lows Tuesday night will be cooler behind the front and fall into the upper 40s and 50s.
However, the main cold front remains well to our northwest again today (currently stretching from NW TN through central Arkansas).
638 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A slow moving upper level trough will push through Pennsylvania early this week.
509 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A slow moving upper level trough will push through Pennsylvania early this week.
557 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 After showers and scattered storms end early tonight, conditions will be mainly dry through Tuesday with temperatures becoming very warm on the 4th of July, Highs today will be in the lower 80s, warming to the upper 80s Tuesday.
527 AM MDT Mon Jul 3 2023 08z surface analysis had low near KSHR with cold front eastward along the SD/ND border into eastern ND. Cold front slips slowly southward this morning, bisecting the CWA by 18z. Attention then turns to upper trough dropping into the northern Rockies/plains. Today/tonight, upper trough drops into MT/WY with what looks like two embedded waves. Low will arrest the southward movement of the cold front, stalling just northeast/east of the Black Hills by early afternoon. As upper trough approaches, hodographs lengthen with 40kts 0-6km bulk shear forecast on cool side of boundary. Temperatures tricky today with potential for significantly lower temperatures north of the cold front. Tuesday, upper trough moves through the CWA with moist cyclonic flow and weak buoyancy.
A cold front is expected to drift south across our region over the weekend which should cool temperatures a few degrees.
358 AM PDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Only slight cooling for today from the coast to the mountains, then greater but gradual cooling for this week as high pressure aloft weakens and onshore flow strengthens slightly.
Temperatures should continue to climb into the lower to mid 90s with higher heat index values, so be sure to stay hydrated and take necessary precautions during lengthy periods of outdoor exposure. High pressure will continue to hold over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the week, with light and somewhat variable wind directions focusing onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze.
622 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) The upper-level ridge begins to slowly slide eastward towards the Southern Great Plains early this week. Today temperatures are expected to be a touch warmer for everyone as heights increase. In terms of precipitation, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected across the higher elevations and across Southeast New Mexico. Everyone can expect temperatures to be a couple degrees warmer than Monday.
High temperatures today will be hot, with low-mid 90s over most of our eastern plains, while the higher terrain sees mid-high 80s.
1239 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat index values today and tomorrow ranging from 110- 114 degrees As an upper-level high pressure sits over the Desert Southwest and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, an upper-level trough will extend southward into West Texas from the Mid-West region.