Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
659 AM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 Today will be mostly cloudy with seasonable temperatures with highs in the lower to middle 40s. Cooler air then filters in for the weekend. Backed easterly flow with slight cold air advection and cloud cover to likely keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Continued low chance PoPs with some indication of greater forcing north and best moisture confined to Tennessee Valley with southern stream cyclone to allow a north/south split in higher precipitation over CWA.
The focus for the highest rainfall amounts wl cont to be acrs the central section of the state, where a general 1/2 to 1 inch of rain is expected. The ridge wl quickly shift to the E of AR Fri night, allowing sfc winds to veer to the E/SE. Have opted to keep the fcst dry, but would not be surprised to see a few showers form towards daybreak acrs NW AR as the low lvl jet/WAA pattern ramps up.
Snow is making it to the ground along the highway 40 corridor and northern mountains. Gusty winds may continue in the higher elevations especially this morning. Strong southwesterly flow ahead of this storm will produce marginal freezing temperatures tomorrow afternoon, so expect to see a rain/snow mix in some of the higher valleys with snow levels around 8-9 kft in the early evening.
501 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023 Weak low pressure will develop across the area today, driven by an upper low moving across the Upper Midwest. Friday through Friday night will be dry as high pressure settles back south across the four state.
337 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023 A fairly sharp warm front was laid out across southeast Texas into central Louisiana underneath weak zonal flow aloft this morning. Observations near Alexandria were measuring dew points in the upper 50s, with readings in the upper 60s to near 70 south of this warm front. With that said, mostly dry conditions are expected today with highs in the low to mid 80s.
542 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023 (Today through Friday) Warm conditions will continue today and Friday as a mid-level ridge remains in place over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level low will move eastward into the midwest tonight, ejecting a slow moving cold front into the state.
By this afternoon, a cold front will enter the Big Country and move south across the area this evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible as the cold front from the north tracks south across the area this evening and overnight, with the best chance of rain over southern and southeast sections.
750 AM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 High pressure today will be interrupted by the return of rain and snow return late tonight and Friday with crossing low pressure. All precipitation will change to snow Friday evening as the low begins to exit the region. Some freezing rain is also possible along the ridges in cold SE upslope flow.
High pressure north of the area ridges southwestward over Florida producing rain-free conditions today. It was a little cooler and drier this morning with temps coming in around 5-8 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Under sunny skies, temps will warm up quickly topping out in the low to mid 80's, which is still around 5-7 degrees above average for this time of year. (12Z TAFS) VFR and rain-free conditions prevail through the period as high pressure remains in control. High pressure north of the area ridges southwestward across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Snow and rain is expected on Friday as a low pressure area passes just to our south. High pressure will slowly move away from the area today as a storm system moves east across the Great Lakes. However, some isolated 6" amounts over the higher terrain are likely but not widepsread. Surface temperatures will be right at or a few degrees above freezing from Interstate 80 and points south so accumulations would be most likely during and best precip rates during the afternoon.
910 AM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 Low pressure will continue to move away east of the Maritimes today and Friday as high pressure builds in from the west.
627 AM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 (12Z TAFS) VFR and rain-free conditions prevail through the period as high pressure remains in control. This has allowed a bit more cooling and some areas are down in the low 50s.
Stratus will erode from W-E later this morning as westerly flow deepens in the wake of a mid-level trough. The next challenge today is high temps as it's looking increasingly likely that low clouds may cling to the Low Rolling Plains and keep highs there a good 10 degrees cooler compared to most of the Caprock. A fair amount of mid and high cloud cover region wide will also curb mixing in addition to a weak cold front gliding south this afternoon, so have sided closer to the cooler CONSSHORT highs today. Surface ridging behind this front will quickly exit to our east this evening allowing winds to veer easterly.
(Today through Friday) Warm conditions will continue today and Friday as a mid-level ridge remains in place over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level low will move eastward into the midwest tonight, ejecting a slow moving cold front into the state.
The highest snow amounts (2 to 4 inches) are forecast for the northern parts of northeast NE.
1237 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 Low pressure will continue to move away east of the Maritimes today and Friday as high pressure builds in from the west.
924 AM PST Thu Mar 9 2023 Much warmer today with high clouds decreasing in the afternoon.
Likewise, afternoon temperatures will mirror the strongest winds, with highs in the low/mid 60s west of US-83 decreasing to the low/mid 50s near central KS.
1154 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023 (Today through Friday) Warm conditions will continue today and Friday as a mid-level ridge remains in place over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level low will move eastward into the midwest tonight, ejecting a slow moving cold front into the state.
HRRR shows the weak cold front moving through Middle Tennessee tonight around 7pm with a few light showers possible out ahead of it. Perhaps our better rainfall chances will be in the overnight hours as a weak cold front pushes precip from west to east across the area. Friday looks to be a few degrees cooler than normal with breezy northwest winds in place. (Friday Night through next Thursday) High pressure and northerly winds will allow temperatures to flirt with freezing Friday night.
(Tonight through Friday night) A weak mid to upper level trough will move across the Great Plains tonight into Friday, slowly pushing a cold front through Central Texas. How far south the cold front will make it into South Texas is still questionable.
The greater chance of being on the higher end of that range, possibly with an isolated 7 inch total, appears to be between I-96 and I-94. Farther north toward US-10, it is more likely that totals will be toward the lower end of the range, with some models even suggesting less than 3 inches. A better feed of moisture from the Gulf and more robust isentropic lift ahead of the low sets up late this afternoon and evening. Surface temperatures around freezing will result in a wet heavy snow, once again.
This precip is associated with an upper trough axis swinging eastward thru the Midwest/OH Valley states. This is likewise causing the stagnant upper ridge axis over the central Gulf region to weaken, as an attendant weak upper disturbance embedded in the west to east flow pattern aloft traverses over the area. Current temps in the mid 50s will struggle to climb past the lower 60s/near 60F later today, given the cloud cover/light rainfall.
The HRRR shows a weak cold front approaching Middle Tennessee between 7-9pm tonight with a few rain showers possible out ahead of it. Both GFS and NAM forecast soundings feature an almost totally saturated profile, so rain should make it to the ground with the approaching cold front tonight. For the remainder of Friday, clouds will clear out during the early afternoon and highs will be in the mid 50s, so not too shabby of a day if you don't mind the cooler temperatures. Winds will steadily turn out of the north through the day, leading to a cold night Friday with lows sitting right at or a degree below freezing.
GEFS and European model ensembles are in agreement of the trough moving in over the Pacific Northwest. The high probabilities of an inch rain from this evening to tomorrow is in line with the timing of the storm with the heaviest being in the first 24 hours.
In advance of the cold front, ongoing light showers across the southern Tennessee valley will become more widespread across the entire valley. Some of the incoming rain will evaporate as virga, helping to moisten the low level atmosphere before it can moisten the surface. After frontal passage, flow will begin the pivot to the northwest and cooler air will begin to be advected into the area in the evening. The cold front's arrival in the morning coupled with persistent cloud cover led me to reduce high temperatures tomorrow a few degrees below the NBM. Northwest flow will lead to a few lingering snow showers in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains and southwest Virginia Friday night.
Sfc and upper ridging will retreat east of the Appalachians today, as a progressive upper trof scoots eastward from Wyoming into the Upper Midwest by this evening, and develops a closed low over Lake Michigan by Friday morning. By Friday morning, the cold front will be east of the CWA. This along with upper ridging will begin drying the region, but under a strong inversion, low level moisture will likely keep the CWA under mostly cloudy skies.
Snow is on track to overtake the Northern Rockies beginning tonight as a warm front moves into the region from the southwest. What really stands out on model guidance, including convection- allowing models, is a strong cold frontal passage on Friday. There has been a trend for the front to move through the region more quickly than previous model runs, so the higher snow level period is expected to be short-lived. Snow squall parameters point to high impact snow squalls with the cold front passage Friday afternoon and evening, with the main concerns being periods of heavy snow with gusty winds, near zero visibility, and rapidly changing travel conditions. Model guidance show an unstable atmosphere behind the cold front that is expected to cause snow showers and snow bands with periods of moderate to heavy snow.
Daytime highs will top out in the low to mid 80's and overnight lows in the upper 50's to mid 60's. The trailing edge of the associated cold front will move through the area on Friday afternoon bringing scattered showers and isolated storms to the area.
The KBYX radar detects scattered showers out by the Tortugas where a weak bead of frontal troughiness has maintained a zone of moisture confluence. Aside from a handful of locations mainly to the east of the Lower Keys overnight, and strangely enough Big Coppitt twice today, the island chain has remained rain free. The easterly winds will be short-lived across the Florida Keys as the 'march' of low pressure systems begins across the CONUS.
(Rest of today through Friday) A bit of relief from the high temperatures for the east coast sites.
A cold front is working its way down from the north, and surface winds are already veering in response. As this feature works south this afternoon into the better Gulf moisture in the lower Trans Pecos, scattered convection is forecast to develop. Unfortunately, another round of stratus/fog is expected over the northeast again, mucking up temperatures Friday afternoon, which should come in at or below normal over the lower terrain. The upshot is that surface flow will quickly veer back around to the south during the day, and push a warm front up through the Permian Basin.
The boundary will continue to push south as a cold front through the afternoon and into the evening hours. By around 0Z, the front should be around the I-10 corridor and this is where we have the highest confidence in seeing potentially strong to marginally severe thunderstorms to develop. Temperatures will be cooler in the 60s to potentially low 70s south of the I-10 corridor with winds remaining out of the east to northeast.
Weak low pressure will develop across the area today, driven by an upper low moving across the Upper Midwest. Friday through Friday night will be dry as high pressure settles back south across the four state.
140 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 High pressure today will be interrupted by the return of rain and snow return late tonight and Friday with crossing low pressure. All precipitation will change to snow Friday evening as the low begins to exit the region. With the presence of that dry air in the low levels, model soundings are indicating evaporative cooling ahead of, and during the morning rush hour. This northward nudge increases confidence in generally less than an inch of snowfall for the majority of the forecast area before changing to rain, including the Pittsburgh metro, with exception of locations north of Rt 422 and along the eastern ridges. Similar accumulations can be expected along the eastern ridges as well. Additionally, as warming aloft persists, some freezing rain is also possible along the ridges in cold SE upslope flow.
1129 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023 (Today through Friday) At 2 AM CST, a cold front extends along a Del Rio to Rocksprings to Fredericksburg to Kyle to Giddings line. Areal coverage gradually wanes as it shifts to the west on Friday as weak upper level ridging builds over our area.
A subtle zone of confluence continues to support scattered showers across the Straits and the Gulf waters west of the Lower Keys.
323 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 A low pressure system will pass through the region overnight bringing light rain and gusty winds. 12Z upper air analysis shows sinuous jet stream with troughing over the central U. and ridging over the Great Lakes, while several low pressure circulations are evident on the latest surface analysis from MN to MO to TX. Winds will veer from E to SW behind the warm front before finally turning WNW behind the cold front.
As the aforementioned boundary pushes southwards, tonight's lows will exhibit considerable range, from the lower 40s north to upper 50s and lower 60s south.
(12Z TAFS) VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period, but rain and thunderstorm chances increase Friday afternoon as a cold front passes through.
Behind this boundary, cooler and drier air ushers in heading into the weekend. This pattern adjustment will be one where much of the E/SE CONUS transitions from the warm/ridge dominated regime to one where a large scale trough will anchor and get reinforced across the E CONUS.
1245 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 Today will be mostly cloudy with seasonable temperatures with highs in the lower to middle 40s. Cooler air then filters in for the weekend. Backed easterly flow with slight cold air advection and cloud cover to likely keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Continued low chance PoPs with some indication of greater forcing north and best moisture confined to Tennessee Valley with southern stream cyclone to allow a north/south split in higher precipitation over CWA.
Rua A fairly sharp warm front was laid out across southeast Texas into central Louisiana underneath weak zonal flow aloft this morning. Observations near Alexandria were measuring dew points in the upper 50s, with readings in the upper 60s to near 70 south of this warm front. With that said, mostly dry conditions are expected today with highs in the low to mid 80s.
344 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 Discussion/Marine -- Accumulating Snow Thursday Night Through Friday Morning -- A deepening cyclone at and below 500 mb will pass through the region tonight through Friday morning. The 500 mb trough and its associated vorticity will be located over Iowa this evening, reaching Lower Michigan Friday morning. There has also been a signal in the higher-res models of a northwest-southeast oriented zone of frontogenesis tonight between 800-600 mb (where the DGZ will be). It's more likely that much central Michigan north of M-20 would see snow amounts on the low side of the 3-6 inch range, perhaps less than 3.
700 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 Aviation -- Accumulating Snow Thursday Night Through Friday Morning -- A deepening cyclone at and below 500 mb will pass through the region tonight through Friday morning. The 500 mb trough and its associated vorticity will be located over Iowa this evening, reaching Lower Michigan Friday morning. There has also been a signal in the higher-res models of a northwest-southeast oriented zone of frontogenesis tonight between 800-600 mb (where the DGZ will be). It's more likely that much central Michigan north of M-20 would see snow amounts on the low side of the 3-6 inch range, perhaps less than 3.
728 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 A low pressure system will move through tonight into Friday.
436 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2023 (Tonight) Light rain/showers have just about moved east of the central TN Valley this Thu afternoon, as an upper trough axis continues to lift into the Midwest/OH Valley regions. With the stagnant ridge axis over the central Gulf region weakening as a result of the upper trough pattern to the north, weak upper waves embedded within a near zonal flow pattern aloft also continue to traverse over much of the region. Overnight lows will again fall mainly into the upper 40s/near 50F, before slightly cooler air begins to spread into the area with the passage of the front.
(Tonight) A cold front, currently located from just east of Memphis and draped southwest towards E.
Under mostly cloudy skies, highs will be in the lower to middle 30s.
Lower dewpoints and cooler temperatures compared to yesterday make for a beautiful evening out there. But cloud cover will be on the increase during the day on Friday as a cold front approaches the area. Mention of VCSH for northern terminals on Friday afternoon with the approach of a cold front. Daytime highs will top out in the low to mid 80's and overnight lows in the upper 50's to mid 60's. The trailing edge of the associated cold front will move through the area on Friday afternoon bringing scattered showers and isolated storms to the area.
Going into Friday, guidance carrying upper level ridging over the Plains, but at the surface, a strong lee-side trough sets up over the Front Range with the aforementioned ridge remaining east of the cwa.
The associated cold front will sweep through the region overnight.
412 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 A low pressure system will move through tonight into Friday.
The highest amounts still look to be over the Sisseton Hills region, where overall total accumulations may be in excess of six inches by the time the snow comes to an end overnight. After the snow exits the area by midnight or so, high pressure will drop in from the north overnight and settle in through the morning hours Friday. The high will then get pushed east as a trough of low pressure approaches the western High Plains. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 10 degrees across north central South Dakota, to the lower 20s across far northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota.
1000 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 A low pressure system will move through tonight into Friday.
A secondary area of low pressure moving along the front is deepening and bringing us strong winds. Colder air will move in behind this front dropping the snow levels to 2000 to 3000 feet with the lowest in the north.
The HRRR continues to run much warmer for tomorrow than the rest of the of the models.
This will cause a warm front to migrate northward into south central and southeast Kansas during the day on Saturday. Models show decent low level Gulf of Mexico moisture over-running the warm front which could lead to drizzle development. The low clouds/drizzle will also hamper daytime heating on Saturday, however some clearing is possible near the KS/OK border where temperatures could rise into the low 70s.
In advance of the cold front, ongoing light showers across the southern Tennessee valley will become more widespread across the entire valley. Some of the incoming rain will evaporate as virga, helping to moisten the low level atmosphere before it can moisten the surface. After frontal passage, flow will begin the pivot to the northwest and cooler air will begin to be advected into the area in the evening. The cold front's arrival in the morning coupled with persistent cloud cover led me to reduce high temperatures tomorrow a few degrees below the NBM.
Temps there may be a few degrees cooler than the rest of the area by the time the sun comes up as a result. Cooler air pours in behind the system and clips the northeastern 1/3 of the CWA.
1058 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) A weak mid to upper level trough will move across the Great Plains tonight into Friday, slowly pushing a cold front through Central Texas. How far south the cold front will make it into South Texas is still questionable.
1131 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2023 The aforementioned cold front, currently located along a line from Nacogdoches Texas. As the aforementioned boundary pushes southwards, tonight's lows will exhibit considerable range, from the lower 40s north to upper 50s and lower 60s south.
Diminishing winds and partial clearing tonight will allow for better radiational cooling, letting Sat morning mins drop to around freezing. The axis of high pressure will pass east of the CWA causing winds to veer from north to east through the day. Parts of southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region may only see the upper 40s which is still warmer than Friday. Saturday night temperatures have trended slightly warmer in our coolest areas (southeast Indiana and the northern Bluegrass).
144 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 High pressure will return for today through tonight, with dry weather and cooler than average temperatures forecast. As the next weather system takes shape over the Plains Saturday and heads east, rain chances will return, mainly in the afternoon with the highest chance over SEMO, and little or no chance from the Evansville Tri-State south across the KY Pennyrile region.
Broken high clouds may keep temperatures a degree or two warmer in some locations, otherwise, no significant changes anticipated with current forecast.
(Today through Saturday) A cold front will bring widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to Central Alabama today. Highs on Saturday will range from the lower to middle 60s across the north and upper 60s to lower 70s across the south.
1245 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2023 A low pressure system will move through tonight into Friday.
1229 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2023 (Rest of today through Friday) A bit of relief from the high temperatures for the east coast sites.
Lower dewpoints and cooler temperatures compared to yesterday make for a beautiful evening out there. But cloud cover will be on the increase during the day on Friday as a cold front approaches the area.
This upper low and associated trof will become increasingly progressive tonight into early tomorrow. With warmer temperatures ahead of the approaching trof, some of this precipitation could be liquid, with primarily snow across our northeast.
(Today through Saturday Night) Area of showers remain south of Middle Tennessee this morning as a weak cold front begins to enter the forecast area. Even though this is a "cold front", Highs will still be able to reach into the 50s although the northwest winds may make things feel a tad cooler. Some locations will flirt with the freezing mark, but do not think many spots will experience below freezing for very long or at least long enough to warrant a Freeze Warning.
An upper wave will sweep across the central Plains, pushing a cold front southward across the state tonight. Storms along and ahead of this systems warm front have potential for strong to severe storms Sat evening, continuing into Sat night. A bit cooler Friday, with temperatures starting out in the mid to upper 30s across north-northwest AR and in the 40s elsewhere in the state. We'll see a bit more contrast Sat afternoon as the warm front begins bringing warmer temps into the southern portions of the state.
A cold front will bring the chance for showers and storms to the area this afternoon into early evening.