Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Speaking of this afternoon, the strong cold front we've been talking about the last few days is continuing its trek southeast, currently over the middle-ish of Kentucky. Temperatures are between 5-10 degrees cooler behind the front and this air is also DRY. Couple a cold front with the gusty winds, the temperatures will feel much cooler than they actually are, so bundle up this afternoon! On to tonight- the ACTUAL temperatures are going to be downright frigid; widespread low 20s to upper teens along the Plateau.
Areas south of I-20 will see highs in the low 60s. After full sun helps to warm and mix the air today bringing gusty northwest wind, cold advection associated with the passing thermal trough should peak this evening. Lows tonight are expected to drop well into the 20s over north central/northeast MS with sub-freezing temperatures expected for the most part elsewhere.
(Tomorrow through Monday) South winds return Tuesday for warmer daytime temps, offset some by increase in high clouds.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) A tight pressure gradient over the area will remain through the evening with gusty winds up to 27 mph expected in the higher elevations, with 20 mph gusts expected across the rest of the area this afternoon through the early night. High pressure over the lower MS River Valley will move into the southeast by Tuesday morning, with winds shifting from the north Monday night to the northeast by Tuesday. Plenty of cold air advection will take place from these northerly winds with high temps today in the 50s, dropping to the mid 40s in the north to the lower 50s in the south for Tuesday. Monday night, lows will be in the lower 20s in the north to the upper 20s in the south.
After that, the high will anchor over Appalachia by mid week, as its return flow southerlies help moderate our temperatures. Low VFR SCT-BKN bases in the cyclonic flow will induce occasional CIGS from KMVN-KEVV-KOWB, while incoming high pressure from the west works to inhibit much more than FEW-SCT such bases from KCGI-KPAH.
These showers are expected to continue over the next few hours as the upper trough and associated positive vorticiy pivot across the area, but are expected to end northwest to southeast this afternoon.
High pressure and a dry airmass will then build into the region through mid week. As the upper trough axis crosses w-e from 19Z-22Z, these showers will lose the bulk of their forcing and taper off in the later afternoon from southwest to northeast. High pressure will begin to build in from the southwest late tonight and through the day on Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the upper teens to mid 20s with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 30s.
A dry cold front will come through this evening and allow even drier and cooler air to filter into the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Strong storm system continues to lift up the east coast while high pressure builds into the region today. Tonight, a reinforcing cold front will push through the forecast area, driven by an upper trough digging across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. A lake wind advisory remains in effect and will continue the advisory through tonight with the strong cold advection and a 30-40 knot low level jet which should mix down over the warmer lake water. The upper level trough will be along the coast Tuesday morning with high pressure over the mid MS River Valley.
353 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 A cold front will cross the region tonight, followed by high pressure through the rest of the week. The mid-levels will consist of a strong trough moving over the East Coast, with a majority of its energy located far to our north. At the surface, a dry cold front will quickly move through our area from west to east this evening. Behind the front, strong, broad High pressure will build in from the Central U. This will yield low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s far inland, the lower 30s near the immediate coast, and the mid 30s at the beaches. Lake Winds: Strong cold air advection over the relatively warmer waters will yield northwest winds with gusts to around 25 kt.
VFR conditions will generally prevail under a ridge of high pressure aloft; however, some patchy fog is expected over the far southwest valleys along the ID border and over the Milk River Valley east of KHVR though 18/16Z. After a cooldown yesterday across the plains, southerly to southwesterly downsloping winds have redeveloped across much of the plains of Central and North-central Montana as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. These mild temperatures will persist through the rest of the week, as flow aloft oscillates between southwesterly and westerly while upper level ridging persists.
1124 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 - Cooler today, rising above normal temperatures in the upper 50s through much of the week.
Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s tonight with the warmer temperatures in western parts of the fa where the southerly winds should moderate the overnight cooling some. An upper ridge over the region and the breezy southerly winds will lead to warmer temperatures Tuesday with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) Very pleasant conditions today behind a weak reinforcing cold front. Will see some high clouds tomorrow; these coupled with some advection of slightly cooler air should lead to max temps remaining in the 60s.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Potent closed upper-level low sits across lower Michigan this afternoon with an attendant sfc response continuing to be absorbed well off to our east into larger scale low pressure riding up the eastern seaboard. Broad cyclonic flow and cold advection continue into this evening locally before becoming disrupted later tonight into Tuesday as mid-level ridging rapidly encroaches on northern MI from the west. Upstream ridge axis quickly builds into the region by late evening and through the overnight hours. High Impact Weather Potential: Low Pattern Synopsis: Deep troughing will continue to pivot east of the Great Lakes and over New England/Mid-Atlantic into the middle of the week as broad ridging overspreads a majority of the CONUS.
Another breezy day today as a low pressure system continues to move further away to the NE. The WNW flow will begin to shift more ENE this evening as high pressure builds in. This will allow cooler, drier air to move in, dropping overnight temperatures to the upper 30s (north) to mid/upper 40s (south).
255 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Georgia is largely in store for a benign week following the impact of two separate low pressure systems. A secondary low moving through the Great Lakes region has put Georgia at the base of the trough as it swings through this afternoon and evening. This trough will reinforce the dry northwesterly flow over the area, while also keeping the pressure gradient tight enough to produce gusty winds overnight and into early Tuesday. Models are known to struggle with the dew points under strong northwest flow, so have continued with the previous trend of siding with the lower end of guidance.
101 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 (Today and tonight) Much quieter weather will prevail today in the wake of the low pressure system that brought rain and wind to the area over the weekend. High pressure and a dry airmass will build into the area. With winds staying somewhat elevated tonight, wind chill values in the lower 20s are expected across the cooler locations of southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.
Although winds overnight will be light there are a couple of factors that should result in temperatures a few degrees warmer than what we saw this morning. Highs on Tuesday will be pretty close to seasonal normals, in the low to mid 60s.
From synopsis, a winter low pressure system centered near the Carolina Coasts will continue racing northeastward this afternoon.
(Tonight) A cold front was entering eastern KY into northern AR. Overnight lows have been consistently forecast in the lower 20s for several days now, with a few upper 10s possible in southern middle TN.
Otherwise, dry and warmer than normal conditions through the week for most.
A weak cold front moved through the area last evening, with cooler air moving into the area early today. Expect seasonal temperatures for today, as a Canadian ridge of high pressure settles over the area. A gradual warming trend is expected for Tue thru Thu as the upper ridge shifts east of the area, with better downslope flow expected for Tue and certainly for Wed as the mid level flow returns to the SW. Both models agree that the precipitation will be all rain, as the warm advection will keep temperatures above freezing throughout the quick hitting event. Ketcham VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the TAF period as the upper high moves from west to east across the state today.
254 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 Slippery travel conditions will become more common after sunset as temperatures fall well below freezing. Key messages: *Slippery travel conditions will become more common after sunset as temperatures fall below freezing. A strong trough aloft ushering in cold air is helping to promote bands of lake effect snow as of midday. Meanwhile, 500-mb heights rise locally as a trough arrives on shore of California. Though, recall that in 2021 the high temperature was just shy of 60 degrees; good for 3rd warmest at South Bend and 2nd warmest at Fort Wayne. Instead, the aformentioned west coast trough moves inland presenting a chance of rain late in the weekended.
159 PM MST Mon Dec 18 2023 Upper ridge weakens tonight and moves east with a southwest flow aloft beginning tomorrow and continuing through the remainder of the short term period.
High clouds continue to stream into the area down the front of the upper ridge over the Rockies. This will bring about some breezy conditions during the afternoon hours as the surface pressure gradient tightens on the back end of this high pressure center. As this high moves out of the area, a ridge over the southwestern CONUS will begin to build east into the Dakotas, raising temperatures in the southwest to the lower 40s. Temperatures will remain below freezing across much of the rest of the state, before beginning to warm up some more heading into Tuesday. The aforementioned ridge will build further east late Monday night, before beginning to deamplify heading into Tuesday, resulting in mostly zonal flow across North Dakota.
1140 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 An arctic cold front will move through the Mid-South later today, bringing a very cold airmass into the region later tonight into Tuesday morning with temperatures falling to the 20s areawide. A warming trend will begin by midweek as high pressure gradually moves east.
1049 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) A weak cold front has nosed through the Permian Basin this morning and reached the limit of its progression along the Pecos Valley. Despite the weak nature of the front, today's highs are still going to be 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday and much closer to normal for mid-December. With breezy southerly winds setting up and the axis of an upper ridge passing overhead on Tuesday, the region warms up a few degrees, topping out in the low to mid 60s for most. Dry air in place and subsidence supplied by the upper ridging keeps precipitation chances nil through the short term.
/NEW/ /Today and Tomorrow/ Tranquil weather is expected the next couple days after a weak cold front moved through the region last night. The front has lowered temperatures about 5-10 degrees below yesterday's values with highs expected to peak in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. High pressure is building into the Central CONUS today and will move into the Eastern CONUS tomorrow. While tonight's lows should be cooler than last night, we're only expecting a widespread light freeze for those generally NE of the Metroplex. A few other low- lying and typical cool spots may touch freezing as well due to efficient radiational cooling taking place before a batch of cirrus moves in from the west.
133 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 - Cooler and breezy through tonight with wind chills in the teens by Tuesday morning.
Precipitation amounts remain light, with snow levels rising slightly and the highest accumulations generally below 4" above 6500 ft. The higher elevations of the Sawtooth range could approach 6" through Tuesday. The center of the upper low dives south just offshore through Tuesday night, so most of the moisture is expected to stay to the west through that time.
1016 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 - The higher terrain area of the Prairie Coteau will see southerly winds with gusts of 30 to 45 mph later tonight into the early morning hours on Tuesday.
Highs will top out in the mid 20s for most and lows will drop back into the low to mid 10s. A longwave trough will dig in off the West Coast and a broad ridge will build into the central CONUS in response. NBM PoPs (40 to 60%) feel reasonable given the uncertainty in track and strength of the low. Christmas day will be slightly cooler and drier with highs in the low to mid 40s.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Mid-level ridge flattens out Tuesday as the axis passes east of Texas tomorrow evening. Atmosphere remains relatively dry with just some high clouds spilling over ridge and a few afternoon fair weather cumulus.
1007 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Wind speeds are steadily increasing this morning as a sharp cold front approaches Middle Tennessee and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Actual temperatures will drop into the low 20s to teens tonight. To our northwest a strong cold front is racing down to the area, which will bring tomorrow's day-long cold snap.
The more widespread, synoptic snow associated with the upper low has ended and the transition to a purely lake effect event has occurred.
1120 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Wind speeds are steadily increasing this morning as a sharp cold front approaches Middle Tennessee and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Actual temperatures will drop into the low 20s to teens tonight. To our northwest a strong cold front is racing down to the area, which will bring tomorrow's day-long cold snap.
542 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Dry and mild weather is expected tonight and tomorrow as upper level ridging moves overheard. Usually southwest winds will help boost high temperatures but persistent upper level cloudiness will offset much warming with highs only a bit warmer in the upper-50s and 60s.
455 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 - Cooler and breezy through tonight with wind chills in the teens by Tuesday morning.
Made some minor updates to the overnight temperatures given we are running a bit warmer than forecast likely thanks to our gusty winds keeping the boundary layer well mixed. Lusk (This afternoon through Tuesday) Georgia is largely in store for a benign week following the impact of two separate low pressure systems. A secondary low moving through the Great Lakes region has put Georgia at the base of the trough as it swings through this afternoon and evening. This trough will reinforce the dry northwesterly flow over the area, while also keeping the pressure gradient tight enough to produce gusty winds overnight and into early Tuesday. Models are known to struggle with the dew points under strong northwest flow, so have continued with the previous trend of siding with the lower end of guidance.
As the offshore low progresses southward down the California coastline, showers will continue to wrap around the low and into Nevada on Tuesday.
221 PM MST Mon Dec 18 2023 Upper ridge weakens tonight and moves east with a southwest flow aloft beginning tomorrow and continuing through the remainder of the short term period.
Current temperatures are in the lower 30s to lower 40s with light to moderate north winds at the surface, and clear skies across the Mid-South.
535 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Mid-level ridge flattens out Tuesday as the axis passes east of Texas tomorrow evening. Atmosphere remains relatively dry with just some high clouds spilling over ridge and a few afternoon fair weather cumulus.
514 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Very pleasant conditions today behind a weak reinforcing cold front. Will see some high clouds tomorrow; these coupled with some advection of slightly cooler air should lead to max temps remaining in the 60s.
546 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Upper level ridge that is currently keeping skies mainly clear will maneuver across the region over the course of tonight and tomorrow. Highs move up into the low to mid 60s area wide Tuesday afternoon.
A well-formed ridge of high pressure over the western U. As it does, a closed low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will push moist air into the Idaho Panhandle and northwest Montana under southwest flow aloft. The southwesterly origins of the moisture will mean that it is accompanied by warmer temperatures, so snow levels remain above the valley floors. Liquid precipitation falling into established cold pools from recent valley temperature inversions is a recipe for freezing rain. The most likely places for freezing precipitation will be over northwest Montana (Lincoln, Sanders, and western Flathead Counties), and western Clearwater and Idaho Counties in Idaho.
624 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday) A tight pressure gradient over the area will remain through the evening with gusty winds up to 27 mph expected in the higher elevations, with 20 mph gusts expected across the rest of the area this afternoon through the early night. High pressure over the lower MS River Valley will move into the southeast by Tuesday morning, with winds shifting from the north Monday night to the northeast by Tuesday. Plenty of cold air advection will take place from these northerly winds with high temps today in the 50s, dropping to the mid 40s in the north to the lower 50s in the south for Tuesday. Monday night, lows will be in the lower 20s in the north to the upper 20s in the south.
Until then, a strong ridge of warm high pressure will remain in control over our region and all points south.
A cold night is ahead for the Midsouth, following the passage an Arctic cold front Monday afternoon.
614 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 A cold front will cross the region tonight, followed by high pressure through the rest of the week. The mid-levels will consist of a strong trough moving over the East Coast, with a majority of its energy located far to our north. At the surface, a dry cold front will quickly move through our area from west to east this evening. Behind the front, strong, broad High pressure will build in from the Central U. This will yield low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s far inland, the lower 30s near the immediate coast, and the mid 30s at the beaches. Lake Winds: Strong cold air advection over the relatively warmer waters will yield northwest winds with gusts to around 25 kt.
541 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Message: - There's a MODERATE risk of Rip Currents today Settled and dry conditions are expected during the short term period with a mid-level low over the Great Lakes region and ridging over the Rocky MTNS. Temperatures today and tomorrow across a majority of the region are expected to top out in the low to mid 70s with overnight lows tonight in the mid 40s inland to 50-60 degrees closer to the coast. Lows tomorrow night will be warmer by about 5 degrees.
340 PM MST Mon Dec 18 2023 1 - High pressure continues today with increasing clouds from the west-southwest.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Georgia is largely in store for a benign week following the impact of two separate low pressure systems. A secondary low moving through the Great Lakes region has put Georgia at the base of the trough as it swings through this afternoon and evening. This trough will reinforce the dry northwesterly flow over the area, while also keeping the pressure gradient tight enough to produce gusty winds overnight and into early Tuesday. Models are known to struggle with the dew points under strong northwest flow, so have continued with the previous trend of siding with the lower end of guidance.
522 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 (Tonight) A cold front was entering eastern KY into northern AR. Overnight lows have been consistently forecast in the lower 20s for several days now, with a few upper 10s possible in southern middle TN.
(Now through Tuesday) Deep northwesterly flow aloft will be in place through the period as an upper-level trough digs into the eastern US. An associated cold front will sweep through the local area this evening, bringing with it a reinforcing shot of much cooler and drier air as strong high pressure builds in from the north. For Tuesday, even with plentiful sunshine, highs will struggle to rise into the low to mid 50s. Dew points will also plummet into the lower to middle teens, giving way to low RH values for Tuesday afternoon (around 20-25%). With the high building in, winds should remain light enough to not warrant any fire-related products.
Current surface analysis places broad high pressure stretching from the southern plains northward into the upper midwest. Behind the high, a modest pressure gradient has developed which is resulting in breezy southerly winds over much of our area. Upper level analysis places broad ridge on the western edge of the plains. Some high clouds streaming through the ridge continue to pass over our area. Upper ridge hangs out over the area into mid-week, though does de-amplify some. Ridge flattens out and flow becomes more zonal to end the work week, broadening out the milder temperatures through much of the area. In the meantime, an upper low spinning off the southern California coast moves onshore late-week as a Pacific trough a bit further to the north also moves onshore.
After that, the high will anchor over Appalachia by mid week, as its return flow southerlies help moderate our temperatures. Winds will become light and variable tonight as high pressure moves overhead, then pick up from the south at 5 to 10 knots on Tuesday as the high shifts east of the region.
Highs will top out in the mid 20s for most and lows will drop back into the low to mid 10s. A longwave trough will dig in off the West Coast and a broad ridge will build into the central CONUS in response. NBM PoPs (40 to 60%) feel reasonable given the uncertainty in track and strength of the low. Christmas day will be slightly cooler and drier with highs in the low to mid 40s. Winds are nearly calm this evening as high pressure drifts across the region, but then expect southerly winds to develop after midnight, with gusts near 15 kts possible during the late morning and afternoon on Tuesday.
449 PM MST Mon Dec 18 2023 Upper ridge weakens tonight and moves east with a southwest flow aloft beginning tomorrow and continuing through the remainder of the short term period.
558 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Weather conditions will remain quiet for tonight as global guidance highlights a cold front tracking south across the region. Along with the aforementioned cold front, colder nighttime temperatures will be the primary focus for the short term period as dry northwest flow continues to bring a significant surge of continental polar air across the forecast area. Given the presence of cold air advection for Monday night, went ahead and leaned towards cooler guidance to lower overnight temperatures. By tomorrow, the cold front will continue to shift further south towards the Atlantic seaboard. The combination of sufficient daytime heating and lack of cloud cover will help afternoon highs peak into the low/mid 50s across the forecast area.
657 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 A cold front will move through tonight setting off lake effect snow showers mainly over the Finger Lakes with light accumulations expected.
216 PM MST Mon Dec 18 2023 Upper ridge weakens tonight and moves east with a southwest flow aloft beginning tomorrow and continuing through the remainder of the short term period.