Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs will likely be cooler across much of our area than we originally anticipated due to the depth of the cold pool.
The highest chances for rain are expected in our eastern counties, as lift associated with the western edge of a large upper level trough moves over the area. We should see a bit more wind on Sunday, as an area of low pressure and surface cold front move in from the west. Today's model suite hints at MUCAPE values ranging from 3,500 to almost 4,500 J/k, coupled with 45 to 55 kts of bulk shear and coupled with orthogonal shear vectors not parallel to the line; severe weather is largely expected with the crossing of the cold front.
A cold front is progged to move through by Sunday morning. The risk for severe weather is highly dependent on the location of convection late Saturday night / early Sunday morning and the cold front passage.
(Today and tonight) Sub-tropical ridging will continue to expand northward today with the 594 dam isallohypse nosing into the CWA.
1234 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 (This evening through Saturday) An upper level ridge and general zonal flow aloft remains in place across West Central Texas, continuing the scorching hot and well above normal heat over the area through the weekend.
extending northeastward from southern CA to the central Rockies and Northern/Central Plains (on the northwestern and northern periphery of the aforementioned ridge). To start off the work week, an upper level ridge is expected to sit across the Tri-State area with nearly zonal to west-northwest flow expected aloft.
As we head into the weekend, a shift towards a hot and dry pattern will commence as a large upper level ridging over Mexico and Texas begins to expand eastward. As ridging builds overhead, it will put a cap on any rain chances for the foreseeable future. As ridging suppresses rain chances it will also increase temperatures significantly through the next several days. Tomorrow, highs in the low to mid 90s are expected, with apparent temps in the 105-110 range. afternoon highs on Sun will top out in the low to mid 90s along and south of I-10 and in the mid to upper 90s further inland.
(Today through Sunday) Today, South Florida will remain wedged in between two ridges of high pressure, one centered over the Southern Plains and one over the western Atlantic. While weak mid level troughing remains overhead, additional deep tropical moisture will advect into the region as the day progresses, with PWAT values becoming at or above 2â.
345 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 (Today through Sunday) Today will bring the driest forecast in quite some time to the forecast area as upper troughing shifts eastward. The forecast area will be situated within a regime of northwest flow aloft in between the departing trough and building ridge across Texas into the ArkLaTex region. The high temperature forecast will also be dependent on convective coverage with temperatures likely near and above 90 degrees for most if a drier forecast verifies, or cooler if more widespread convection affects the area.
After the late night-early morning convective chance, chances wane thru the first half of the day, until the incoming cold front collides with a recharging atmosphere.
Temperatures will be on the rise once again as high pressure builds over the region, possibly bringing Las Vegas its first 100 degree day. Lows tomorrow morning are forecast to be in the 60s and low 70s across the low deserts, and 50s in some of our higher valleys.
Temperatures will be on the rise as high pressure builds over the region, likely bringing Las Vegas its first 100 degree day of the year in the second half of the upcoming week.
Sunday is looking cooler, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, but it will also be windy, with northwest winds to 20 to 35 mph.
In the wake of this convection were cooler temps and a min of instability from Central Oklahoma into Southeast Oklahoma. scattered convection remained ongoing from Southwest Kansas into Western Texas moving eastward along the top of the mid/upper level high pressure ridge. the convection looks to outrun the low level jet axis and move into an area of weaker elevated instability. it should take on more of a southeasterly track as begins to move down the eastern side of the high pressure ridge.
Current short range models are showing some short wave energy moving south southeast out of the Ohio Valley early today and will aid in showers and thunderstorms developing mainly from I-75 and eastward into northeast Tennessee still under influence of upper trough.
The ridge of high pressure that has brought us this record breaking heat will remain in control today through Sunday.
The upper level low that has helped to enhance our shower activity has now moved away as ridging settles in to our south. With this flow regime we typically see the highest rain shower chances in southwest Florida and inland areas.
Upper level heights rise Sunday so expect warmer temperatures.
Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will begin pushing into the area from the southwest by mid morning with heat indices rising to near 100 by noon.
Overnight eyes will begin to shift upstream over the high plains where an H5 impulse could initiated a complex of showers and thunderstorms.
For tonight through Sunday, an upper trough will move from the northern plains to the Great Lakes. A couple of waves will rotate around this low pressure system. We will continue to be under the influence of an upper ridge. Sunday afternoon temps will jump into the low to mid 90s for much of the area. Dew points will climb into the lower, and perhaps mid 70s.
Stronger deep-layer shear will be found across the Panhandles into our northern Counties, and that combined with warmer temperatures aloft farther south, likely accounts for CAM indications that we'll see more numerous activity across our northern counties, and likely more intense as well. Saturday, the upper ridge flattens out and drier, westerly flow is established across the forecast area. These temperatures should reach at least into the low side of our heat advisory criteria (105F on the Caprock and 110F in the Rolling Plains).
124 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Dry and trending warmer Saturday with highs into the mid to upper 80s. A cold front brings showers and a chance of thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night. heights build A weak upper low over OH will slowly lift north to Lake Erie late this afternoon and evening. The result should be more sunshine and warmer high temperatures into the mid-upper 80s on Saturday.
1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 (Rest of tonight) A weak area of high pressure remains in place over much of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia this evening. Despite reaching the lower to mid 80s earlier this afternoon, clearer skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to drop into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees in some locations. Also, it should keep temperatures from dropping much below the mid 60s, so tweaked lows a bit warmer.
132 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Weak high pressure is expected to build over the Southeast this weekend.
237 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Upper level low will move east along the Montana/Wyoming border this morning and into the Dakotas this afternoon. There will be an area of heavy rain this morning to the north of the low which could reach as far north as the southern counties of the GGW forecast area. The chances for rain diminish this afternoon and evening as the low moves to the east and will be limited to convective showers and thunderstorms in an unstable atmosphere.
Short wave ridge will build in for Saturday and that will keep the forecast dry. It will be quite a bit warmer though with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. (This afternoon through Saturday Night) The upper low continues to pull off to the northeast this afternoon with the center over Lake Erie as seen on water vapor.
- Hot weather by midweek Early this afternoon an upper level trough was lifting northeast across the central Rockies. The most favored areas for thunderstorm development this afternoon will be on the higher terrain from eastern WY/Western NE, southward into the TX PNHDL. This thunderstorm complex will shift more to the east-northeast as the H5 trough lifts northeast into SD by Saturday morning. A weak cold front will move east across the CWA Saturday morning and by Saturday afternoon will move east of the CWA into western MO.
221 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Weak high pressure is expected to build over the Southeast this weekend.
The period begins with an area of low pressure east of the region with an upper level ridge building into the CWA. The ridge will bring warmer temperatures with highs near seasonal average.
extending northeastward from southern CA to the central Rockies and Northern/Central Plains (on the northwestern and northern periphery of the aforementioned ridge).
A closed upper low is currently located over northeastern Wyoming, placing western and central North Dakota under southwest flow aloft. This low will eventually move up into northeastern South Dakota by mid to late morning as a deformation band of precipitation develops to the north and northwest. Beneficial rain should lift up into much of the Highway 200 corridor, but there will be a sharp cutoff somewhere in between here and Highway 2. Precipitation will diminish from west to east this evening and into the overnight hours as the low moves into western Minnesota. By Sunday afternoon, the sky will be clearing from west to east as upper level ridging approaches from the west. This will lead to slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and mainly dry conditions.
359 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon as an upper level low pressure system moves off to the northeast. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as another low pressure system moves into the Ohio Valley. Weak mid level short wave energy will rotate down the backside of the departing upper level low through this afternoon. Temperatures today will be fairly seasonable with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
402 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Rain showers currently being observed in Central NY and the Twin Tiers will begin to taper off early this morning as a low pressure system to the west of the state pivots and begins tracking northeastward. A low pressure system west of the region will begin to pivot and move northeastward, increasing chances for rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Upper troughing will remain over the region on Sunday, however, any showers and thunderstorms will be focused mostly during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system located over southeastern Montana will continue through this afternoon. 70 inches is sufficient for localized flooding despite the lower overall flood risk. Ridging briefly moves in tonight for quieter conditions.
544 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Shower chances will taper through dawn, but will increase again on this afternoon as low pressure slowly moves across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
Winds will increase late in the weekend through mid-week ahead of the next largely dry trough.
(Rest of Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley today with high pressure building into the area.
(This evening through Saturday) An upper level ridge and general zonal flow aloft remains in place across West Central Texas, continuing the scorching hot and well above normal heat over the area through the weekend.
A persistent upper trough extends from the Pacific NW to offshore the N CA coast.
645 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Weak high pressure is expected to build over the Southeast this weekend.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms could redevelop through the rest of the morning mainly along and east of I-35 within a mid level theta-e ridge axis via isentropic ascent.
632 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon as an upper level low pressure system moves off to the northeast. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as another low pressure system moves into the Ohio Valley. Weak mid level short wave energy will rotate down the backside of the departing upper level low through this afternoon. Temperatures today will be fairly seasonable with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the low 70s.
A trough of low pressure remains in place across the eastern CONUS, with northwest flow aloft over our forecast area. Humidity nudging higher with this return flow, and the increasing affects of the ridge aloft will see peak heat index values up to around 105 degrees this afternoon in central LA and far southwest MS.
The upper-level ridge over northern Mexico and west Texas will persist across the region today, which means the relentless heat will continue. The highest temperatures look like they will occur across the Concho Valley where 110 degree readings could be prevalent.
1012 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Weak high pressure is expected to build over the Southeast this weekend.
(Today through Sunday) Today will bring the driest forecast in quite some time to the forecast area as upper troughing shifts eastward. The forecast area will be situated within a regime of northwest flow aloft in between the departing trough and building ridge across Texas into the ArkLaTex region. The high temperature forecast will also be dependent on convective coverage with temperatures likely near and above 90 degrees for most if a drier forecast verifies, or cooler if more widespread convection affects the area.
The lowest 3-4 thousand feet shows easterly flow with southwesterly winds above this layer.
637 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 (Today through Sunday night) Models expect the 500mb center of high pressure to continue to build as it shifts northeast into Texas for the weekend. As it stands, latest guidance is projecting afternoon high temperatures for today to rise into the high 90s with triple digits becoming likely the further south you are located. As for Sunday, dry conditions should hold for day with the center of the high not expect to move too much. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, however, with afternoon highs projected to be in the high 80s and low 90s.
The period begins with an area of low pressure east of the region with an upper level ridge building into the CWA. The ridge will bring warmer temperatures with highs near seasonal average. Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Periods of MVFR/IFR CIGs in the forecast today as low pressure moves across the region.
Dry air will be circulating into wrn and ncntl Nebraska viz Pacific high pressure. This high pressure should be centered over wrn SD Sunday afternoon.
615 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 (Today and tonight) Sub-tropical ridging will continue to expand northward today with the 594 dam isallohypse nosing into the CWA.
(Today through Sunday) The broad mid-level ridge will remain anchored over northern Mexico (Chihuahua/Coahuila and Durango states) and will continue to produce strong subsidence across Deep South Texas through the short term. Very warm conditions will continue tonight with lows dropping into the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Today a ridge builds over the intermountain west and continues to build over the next couple of days. Upstream of the intermountain ridge is a large positively tilted trough. This trough will help moisture ride up over the ridge to the east. For Sunday, the trough axis progresses into western Nevada.
Decaying, barotropic upper low will continue to slowly drift east over the lower Great Lakes this period. Main focus continues to be on cold front associated with aforementioned midlevel low slated to cross our area Sun evening. Upper low then settles over the Great Lakes for a time Mon-Tue leading to cooler, cloudier, and windier conditions.
631 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 (Today through Sunday) The broad mid-level ridge will remain anchored over northern Mexico (Chihuahua/Coahuila and Durango states) and will continue to produce strong subsidence across Deep South Texas through the short term. Very warm conditions will continue tonight with lows dropping into the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
855 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Isolated showers and possibly a storm or two will be possible today, followed by more widespread showers and storms Sunday night with a passing cold front. WV imagery shows an upper low over the southern Great Lakes, which is progged to slowly drift ESE over the course of the day. The upper low will open and slowly exit the region tonight into Sunday.
918 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon as an upper level low pressure system moves off to the northeast. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as another low pressure system moves into the Ohio Valley. Weak mid level short wave energy will rotate down the backside of the departing upper level low through this afternoon. Temperatures today will be fairly seasonable with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
Although the shift to a wetter pattern will come with the risk of localized flooding and isolated strong thunderstorms, the prolonged stretch of relatively cooler and damp weather should prove beneficial for the current moderate to severe drought conditions across central Pennsylvania. Low temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s will be above climo but trend a few degrees cooler vs.
857 AM PDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Upper level troughing will maintain seasonably cool weather through the next several days with marine layer clouds and fog occurring each night and morning, along with gusty west winds and elevated fire weather conditions in the mountains and deserts each afternoon. The low clouds are expected to push ashore through sunrise this morning. Renewed West Coast low pressure troughing will develop again this weekend, generating diurnally driven gusty onshore winds each day during the afternoons and evenings.
252 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 An upper level trough of low pressure over New England will continue to lift northeast and away from the area.
A stout mid-level ridge will continue to nudge eastward over the region overnight, with the greatest ridging over southeast Missouri. Dew point temperatures will also surge into the lower to middle 70s. While initially we will be capped due to very warm 850 mb temperatures, the lift generated by the dryline, remnant outflow boundaries, and an approaching cold front should be enough to trigger a isolated to scattered convection near the Ohio River. Behind the passing cold front, drier air will filter into the region.
133 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Showers and thunderstorms continue in Central NY and northeast PA as low pressure west of the region tracks northeastward.
As for heat, the upper level high starts to build into the region on Sunday. With more insolation across the west, expect temps to be on the warmer side for Baton Rouge.
1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 (Today and tonight) Sub-tropical ridging will continue to expand northward today with the 594 dam isallohypse nosing into the CWA.
Meanwhile, a lack of clouds and a steady southeast wind has allowed for the combination of temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints near 80. A mid to upper level trough situated along the Eastern Seaboard will act to flatten and compress a ridge across the southwestern North Atlantic tonight. This will force the ridge to retreat eastward. Meanwhile, the low level ridge axis will initially sag southward overnight and become nebulous on Sunday as the ridge fractures into two anticyclonic cells.
A cold front will move though the area late tonight and early Sunday morning.
Perhaps just enough low-level moisture pooling over the higher terrain of northern lower to allow for a pop-up shower this afternoon, although guidance derived cloud depths leave quite a bit to be desired. More classic lake breeze convergence axis across central/eastern upper Michigan when combined with ~1000 J/kg SBCAPE is providing enough support to kick off a couple of thunderstorms north of the bridge.
The upper level high will shift slightly eastward on Sunday which looks to bump up temperatures a few degrees across the area. With dewpoints still in the low to mid 70s early tomorrow afternoon, heat indices will increase a few degrees from today.
Between disturbances, the ridge axis (currently through Texas) nudges westward slightly tomorrow.
Cold front has cleared the CWA to the east and south as of 06Z. Upper low from IR imagery located across north central Wyoming into south central Montana. Radar PPINE across the CWA with light stratified returns across northern Wyoming in the vicinity of the upper low.
Upper-level heights rise on Sunday so expect dry weather and warmer temperatures.
1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 (Today through Sunday night) Models expect the 500mb center of high pressure to continue to build as it shifts northeast into Texas for the weekend. As it stands, latest guidance is projecting afternoon high temperatures for today to rise into the high 90s with triple digits becoming likely the further south you are located. As for Sunday, dry conditions should hold for day with the center of the high not expect to move too much. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, however, with afternoon highs projected to be in the high 80s and low 90s.
-------BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper level low will move east along the Montana/Wyoming border this morning and into the Dakotas this afternoon. There will be an area of heavy rain this morning to the north of the low which could reach as far north as the southern counties of the GGW forecast area. The chances for rain diminish this afternoon and evening as the low moves to the east and will be limited to convective showers and thunderstorms in an unstable atmosphere.
149 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Upper level low is well defined on satellite this afternoon over the far southeast corner of Montana, drifting to the east- southeast. As the upper low continues to drift eastward through this evening, organized wrap around precipitation will diminish and dissipate overnight.
/16 (Now through Sunday) An upper level trough east of the Mississippi River shifts east a bit as upper level high pressure centered over Texas/Mexico builds east a bit. Organized south to southwesterly low level flow moving Gulf moisture inland over the Lower Mississippi River Valley shift to more westerly over land areas later tonight into Sunday, moistening the dry airmass currently over the forecast area. First, with a bit of an increase in upper subsidence as the upper ridge nudges east and a significant increase in moisture levels, high heat indices are becoming an issue. Temperatures for the day are expected to top out in the low to mid 90s, with general mid 90s over inland southeast Mississippi.
By the afternoon, skies will be mainly clear with dew points climbing into the low to mid 70s. The low level helicity will be on the low side, so tornadoes will not be a big threat. With temperatures in the low to even mid 90s along the Tennessee River, afternoon temperatures will feel like 100-105.
This is generating moderate to heavy rainfall along and south of the I94 corridor and east of Highway 85, as well as along and south of the Highway 200 corridor mainly east of Highway 83.
At the surface, observations show a weak cold front associated with a low centered near Aberdeen, SD, passed through our area over the last few hours, however strong solar insolation and increasing 850-mb temperatures will support afternoon highs reaching into the low to mid 90s. Overnight tonight, a secondary cold front is expected to pass through southwest KS around the 04-09Z time frame.
Over the next few days, spanning from today through Sunday night, an enduring upper-level trough accompanied by a nested area of low-pressure circulation will traverse through Idaho and western Montana. Today, isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated in the high terrain and in western Idaho County and along the Divide.