Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1043 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) A modest 500 mb ridge will continue to build north out of neighboring Mexico. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s to a few lower 60s Friday night, slightly warmer than normal. Friday high temperatures will be in the lower 80s, well above normal.
Friday will bring warmer temperatures and less wind. Northwesterly flow over the forecast area will shift to become more zonal late Friday into Saturday as upper level ridging moves in from the west. Temperatures are anticipated to continue to rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s through much of the weekend as a thermal ridge penetrates into the southern Central Plains. Split flow will develop as a downstream upper level low center opens off of the southwestern Pacific Coast and moves over the area late Saturday.
Going into tomorrow, the trough digging over the Great Lakes will start impending on the area and bring a cold front along with it. Out ahead of the front, compressional warming will allow temps to be even warmer than today (about 5 degrees warmer) while keeping rain chances minimal. Can't rule out some very spotty showers with the cold frontal passage tomorrow night and into Saturday, but with us being so far removed from the main forcing of the trough, the cold frontal passage will be mostly dry.
Later tngt and Fri, an upper level trof wl pass to the north of the region, allowing an assocd CDFNT to move acrs AR fm the NW.
(Today through Saturday Night) Zonal flow is across Arkansas with an upper trough over Florida and the Great Lakes. The upper trough will move through the Great Lakes and southern Plains today and will be along the east coast Saturday. Ridging will develop over the Plains Saturday. A cold front in southeast Kansas will move through Arkansas today. High pressure will build over the area Saturday with dry weather.
Hoenisch Weak upper level ridging will be in place the next couple days, resulting in dry conditions and above average temperatures Friday and Saturday.
939 PM MST Thu Nov 16 2023 Key Messages: 1) A cold front will continue to move southward through the afternoon, while showers across the south will gradually end into the evening today.
Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1051 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 (This evening through Friday) The West Central TX area remains under zonal to near weak ridging aloft. High clouds continue to stream into the area as an upper low off the CA coast filters moisture from the Baja region into the Southern Plains. As such, overnight lows will be on the mild side tonight in the low to mid 50s. Cooler air will begin to slowly work its way in behind the boundary, keeping areas in the Big Country in the mid to upper 60s tomorrow. Further south in the Heartland and along the I-10 corridor, temperatures look to be comparable to today with the cooler air losing most of its punch by the time it reaches the area tomorrow afternoon.
1051 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) The upper pattern today has a ridge extending from Mexico up across TX and NM with a low spinning off the CA Coast. This low will slowly move ashore Friday night and Saturday as the ridge strengthens across the Central Plains. A cold front blows into the area early Friday morning. Lows cooler Friday night in the 40s and 50s.
The transition to upper level ridging will bring dry weather with a warming trend over the next 36 hours. JKL Saturday will be dry and warm with upper level ridging in place. By Saturday night, cloud cover will increase as broad troughing moves over the area.
Discussion: Currently mild temperatures early this morning with cloudy skies as a broad trough moves through eastern Canada and the United States. This trough will drag along with it a frontal boundary that will bring a change in the weather to the region.
926 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Evening surface analyses depict a large longwave trough extending from Lake Superior all the way down through Kansas City. The associated cold front will begin making its approach into the region overnight.
1046 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Much cooler conditions settle in this evening behind a cold front.
A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from 4 AM to 10 AM this morning given the high probabilities and yesterday morning fog formation. Highs will be the warmest of the week, mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s, before a weak cold front moves across the area during the late afternoon/early evening. Only minor cooling is expected with widespread highs still in the low to upper 70s Saturday afternoon.
In the PVA region upstream from the trough's base across E FL, convection continues. However, there are plenty of low clouds in the lowest km or so.
(Today) Extensive low cloudiness persists early this morning in advance of a cold front to the north that will move through during the day. Expect an overall decrease in cloudiness from north to south as first, the low clouds erode with the frontal passage and second, the high clouds shift more to the south and west along with the upper level flow pattern becoming more northwesterly.
245 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 Short Term/Marine - Showers this morning, then clearing Sfc analysis shows a cold front stretching from near Mackinac Island southwest to near MKE moving east. Radar also showed a well defined band of showers along the cold front. As high pressure settles overhead tonight, we'll see generally clear skies and temperatures will fall into the 20s. - Dry weather this weekend The weekend ahead will be dominated by downsloping cooler weather in the wake of the cold front as the mid to lower levels are dominated but a positively tilted upper level trough as a short wave will move through the mid levels Saturday afternoon.
(Today and tonight) The cold front, currently pushing into the southern Texas Panhandle as of 1 AM, should be south of the FA by/shortly after sunrise. And while not an overly strong front, highs this afternoon should be roughly 5-10 degrees cooler over yesterday's highs. Even the usually bullish NAM MOS keeps VIS on the higher side (above 6SM). Low stratus will help keep overnight lows in check with most areas seeing temps in the low to mid 40s by sunrise tomorrow morning.
542 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 Shower coverage will increase with cigs lowering as well within band of moisture along cold front. MVFR conditions will overspread the area with showers this morning with a cold front then sweeping this activity to the east in by 18z or so. This will be the warmest part of the day with temperatures quickly plummeting as a cold front sweeps through the region between now and mid day from northwest to southeast. The clearing skies and lingering thermal trough set up a chilly night for southeast Michigan with lows dipping into the upper 20s for most locations.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the northwestern U. Recent precipitation will provide the low-level moisture that is necessary for morning fog and low stratus cloud formation, especially across northwest Montana. The Lower Salmon and Red River valleys of Idaho will also be susceptible to decreased visibility each morning through Saturday. While the ridge builds over the Northwest, two low pressure circulations in the eastern Pacific will move closer to the West Coast. The first system is an amplifying trough of low pressure digging south along the coast of British Columbia. Current model guidance indicates that the northerly system will absorb the southerly system, making for a broad trough of low pressure over the the western U.
Forecast Details: A cold front had exited the forecast area early this morning and associated showers were just leaving Manitowoc County. Temperatures were falling across the region, and ranged from the lower 30s northwest to the middle 40s southeast. Winds will subside this morning as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Cooler temperatures will return to the forecast area, with near normal highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s. High pressure will sag south of the region tonight as low pressure tracks well to our north through Ontario.
- Dry and warmer than normal high temperatures through Saturday.
Along the island chain, clear to partly cloudy skies prevail, with temperatures mostly in the lower 70s, although light to calm winds have allowed for some radiational cooling across the interior of the larger islands, with North Big Pine RAWS reporting 68F as of 4 AM. Aloft, a sharp mid/upper level trough is pushing eastward from the eastern Gulf into the Florida peninsula.
Tonight, westerly flow lessens under building high pressure ridge across the area. Ridging followed by split flow look to keep a mainly dry and mild weekend. Upper level ridge will move across the area on Saturday.
The highest gusts will likely remain west of the Red River Valley. Heading into Saturday, conditions remain tranquil across the Northern Plains as ridging pushes off to the east and into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.
539 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (Today through Saturday Night) Zonal flow aloft with ridging expected to amplify just west of the state should lead to relatively benign weather across SE Texas today and early this weekend. Highs should be a tad cooler than the day before, though still largely in the 70s across SE Texas.
524 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (Today) Extensive low cloudiness persists early this morning in advance of a cold front to the north that will move through during the day. Expect an overall decrease in cloudiness from north to south as first, the low clouds erode with the frontal passage and second, the high clouds shift more to the south and west along with the upper level flow pattern becoming more northwesterly.
512 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front will move through the area today, resulting in gusty north winds of 10 to 20 mph along with cooler temperatures.
The low pressure center off the coast of California brought the subtropical moisture into the region. For the rest of today, the low pressure center will be slowly moving closer to the California shore and slowly transitioning into a wave or a trough. 4 inches (higher elevations on the higher end), but a wetter scenario (less than 10% of occuring) could be upwards of 0.
532 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler today, though really just closer to normal.
(Today through Saturday Night) Zonal flow aloft with ridging expected to amplify just west of the state should lead to relatively benign weather across SE Texas today and early this weekend. Highs should be a tad cooler than the day before, though still largely in the 70s across SE Texas.
525 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Our next cold front is currently marching southward through the Texas Panhandle and is set to push into the northern Permian Basin throughout the late morning, reaching at least the Pecos River by 18z. While an immediate cooldown is absent with the front, it'll bring in drier air, allowing low temperatures to fall well into the low 50s and upper 40s tonight. Surface winds quickly veer back to the southeast by Saturday afternoon as high pressure slides to our east. Deterministic NBM is on the higher end of this spread so have undercut it closer to the middle of the spread and the NAM MOS.
211 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2023 Northwest flow will shift eastward allowing ridging to build in from the west this afternoon. Winds over the western foothills will be gusty this morning, especially for Harlowton and Big Timber, but will weaken through the afternoon as pressure rises replace falls over the eastern plains and warmer temperatures allow for afternoon mixing of lighter winds aloft. Ridging continues Saturday with highs once again well into the 50s. Expect increasing cloud cover late in the day as a longwave trof moves in from the southwest.
Otherwise, a very mild day is expected ahead of an approaching weak cold front.
Satellite loops also shows an upper low spinning around 450 miles southwest of the SF Bay area this morning. Models shift the upper low to the northeast today and fill it into an open wave as it crosses over the coast tonight.
Key Message: Much cooler today with highs near mid November normals. A cold front will shift into central Illinois early this morning, taking any areas of patchy light rain or sprinkles with it. High pressure building in overnight will lead to light winds and chilly temps in the 20s. *Much colder weather is expected by mid week behind a strong cold front.
521 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 A cold front crossing central Illinois this morning will bring a chance for light rain through midday before shifting into Indiana. Behind the front, the rest of today and this weekend will be dry and cooler with highs generally in the 50s.
549 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (Today through Saturday Night) Zonal flow is across Arkansas with an upper trough over Florida and the Great Lakes. The upper trough will move through the Great Lakes and southern Plains today and will be along the east coast Saturday. Ridging will develop over the Plains Saturday. A cold front in southeast Kansas will move through Arkansas today. High pressure will build over the area Saturday with dry weather.
Otherwise, a very mild day is expected ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected tonight.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Our next cold front is currently marching southward through the Texas Panhandle and is set to push into the northern Permian Basin throughout the late morning, reaching at least the Pecos River by 18z. While an immediate cooldown is absent with the front, it'll bring in drier air, allowing low temperatures to fall well into the low 50s and upper 40s tonight. Surface winds quickly veer back to the southeast by Saturday afternoon as high pressure slides to our east. Deterministic NBM is on the higher end of this spread so have undercut it closer to the middle of the spread and the NAM MOS.
504 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front, currently pushing into the southern Texas Panhandle as of 1 AM, should be south of the FA by/shortly after sunrise. And while not an overly strong front, highs this afternoon should be roughly 5-10 degrees cooler over yesterday's highs. Even the usually bullish NAM MOS keeps VIS on the higher side (above 6SM). Low stratus will help keep overnight lows in check with most areas seeing temps in the low to mid 40s by sunrise tomorrow morning.
Key Messages: - Cooler today behind a passing cold front, with highs in the 50s.
322 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Key Message: Much cooler today with highs near mid November normals. A cold front will shift into central Illinois early this morning, taking any areas of patchy light rain or sprinkles with it. High pressure building in overnight will lead to light winds and chilly temps in the 20s. *Much colder weather is expected by mid week behind a strong cold front.
641 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 Aviation - Showers this morning, then clearing Sfc analysis shows a cold front stretching from near Mackinac Island southwest to near MKE moving east. Radar also showed a well defined band of showers along the cold front. As high pressure settles overhead tonight, we'll see generally clear skies and temperatures will fall into the 20s.
(Rest of today through Saturday) An upper level trough positioned over the entire Florida peninsula is gradually pushing off towards the northeast, with dry air filtering in behind it over South Florida. For Saturday, a very weak cold front is expected to sweep through the peninsula, reinforcing the drier air mass over the CWA. Expect highs in the lower 80s across the area for Friday and Saturday with lows in the 60s area-wide.
After low temperatures bottomed out in the upper 60s to lower 70s due to calm winds and radiational cooling overnight, ample solar insolation will allow temperatures to quickly rebound to the lower 80s this afternoon. From synopsis, light to gentle west to northwest breezes will prevail across the Keys marine zones this afternoon, as low pressure east of the Florida Peninsula continues to move to the northeast and away from South Florida. Gentle northwest breezes tonight and Saturday will veer to the north and freshen Saturday night, as high pressure moves slowly eastward from the Midwest to the central Appalachians.
1135 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler today, though really just closer to normal.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) An upper ridge extends from Mexico up across NM, CO, WY into MT as the next upper low spins along the CA coast. This low will open into a trough as it moves ashore tonight passing across the Great Basin Saturday. A cold front blew into the area this morning and continues to push south toward the Rio Grande this afternoon. Lows a bit warmer Saturday night.
146 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2023 Ridging over the region will bring warm conditions through Saturday. A trof moving in from the southwest will bring increasing clouds and a chance for light snow over the southwest mountains Saturday night.
(This evening through Saturday Night) A cold front over northwest Arkansas will sweep thru the forecast area tonight, as a northwesterly flow persists aloft. The cooler and drier air behind the front, along with clearing skies, will allow temperatures to drop into the 30's across the north tonight, with 40's elsewhere. High temperatures tomorrow will be a little cooler.
Surface observations show the cold front has exited our CWA and is entering the Detroit Metro region. Only minor adjustments to temps and PoPs were made to better reflect timing trends associated with the cold frontal passage. - Showers this morning, then clearing Sfc analysis shows a cold front stretching from near Mackinac Island southwest to near MKE moving east. Radar also showed a well defined band of showers along the cold front. As high pressure settles overhead tonight, we'll see generally clear skies and temperatures will fall into the 20s.
As the low pulls offshore expect the rainfall to move to the outer coastal waters with some fog forming along the coast this evening and working inland overnight, potentially dropping visibility to the 3-5 mile range.
251 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Tonight and Tomorrow: As a weak cold front moves through the area this overnight expect cooler temperatures as they will range from high 40s to high 50s north to south. With the airmass change comes cooler temperatures and a northerly wind shift. Behind the front high pressure will move into the area limiting cloud cover and ending rain chances through the near term.
1148 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (Today through Saturday Night) Zonal flow aloft with ridging expected to amplify just west of the state should lead to relatively benign weather across SE Texas today and early this weekend. Highs should be a tad cooler than the day before, though still largely in the 70s across SE Texas.
-Enriquez PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Broad ridge will occupy the area over most of the weekend.
258 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 A cold front will move through this evening. Cooler and drier conditions will then be in place for the weekend. The cold front is just starting to work through the region. With a cooler airmass in place high temperatures will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Saturday night will be around or just below freezing.
A weak cold front/wind shift has begun to push into the southern Edwards Plateau and will continue to drift slowly south this evening and tonight. The airmass behind it isn't much drier or cooler for that matter, and a few hours after the wind shift comes through we'll see low stratus redevelop in central and eastern portions of the region. Cloud cover lingering through the morning hours as well as the northeasterly flow will help keep temperatures slightly cooler tomorrow, but still near seasonal norms with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
(The rest of today ) At mid morning a cold front had moved into Northeast Oklahoma and was positioned slightly north/northwest of Interstate 44. the cold front and the associated mid/upper level trof axis will continue to slide southeast through the region. The initial wind shift and trof axis are expected to exit this afternoon ahead of the front. with a slow warm up into the low/mid 60s over Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
1022 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (Issued 1022 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023) Winds are steady out of the north-northwest in the wake of the cold front this morning, and they will gradually diminish through the afternoon as high pressure moves in. Temperatures are rising into the lower 40s with the sunshine this morning, and expect lower to mid 40s as highs today. Cronce (Issued 239 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023) Today through Saturday: The cold front is working its way through the area early this morning, with winds shifting to the northwest as the front passes. Saturday is looking quite pleasant, with highs in the low 50s and mostly sunny skies.
239 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 * Clear, calm, and cold tonight * Sunny, a little breezy, and warmer Saturday Tonight, high pressure will be over the region bringing clear skies and light winds to the area. Saturday, the high will move southeast of the area which will allow a mild SW flow to develop.
1118 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (The rest of today ) At mid morning a cold front had moved into Northeast Oklahoma and was positioned slightly north/northwest of Interstate 44. the cold front and the associated mid/upper level trof axis will continue to slide southeast through the region. The initial wind shift and trof axis are expected to exit this afternoon ahead of the front. with a slow warm up into the low/mid 60s over Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
1118 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front, currently pushing into the southern Texas Panhandle as of 1 AM, should be south of the FA by/shortly after sunrise. And while not an overly strong front, highs this afternoon should be roughly 5-10 degrees cooler over yesterday's highs. Even the usually bullish NAM MOS keeps VIS on the higher side (above 6SM). Low stratus will help keep overnight lows in check with most areas seeing temps in the low to mid 40s by sunrise tomorrow morning.
(This evening through Saturday) Key Message: Widespread rain expected this evening with an incoming cold front. Clouds will begin to clear out late tonight as winds shift to W-NW behind the cold frontal passage, creating a downslope flow off the Plateau.
1128 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front will move through the area today, resulting in gusty north winds of 10 to 20 mph along with cooler temperatures.
(This evening through Saturday) Cooler and drier air will continue to filter into southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, late this afternoon and tonight, in the wake of a frontal passage.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are currently in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. A low pressure system continues to move north to northeast off the East Coast of Florida as it heads towards the Canadian Maritimes as a Nor'easter over the weekend.
=================================================================== Much needed rain showers continue to push eastward ahead of a cold front this afternoon, though overall amounts up to this point have been on the lower side of guidance. We should see the rain showers come to an end from northwest to southeast as a surface cold front sweeps into the region. Cold air advection behind the front will keep temps on the cooler side of climo, as highs range from low 50s across southern Indiana to upper 50s near the Tennessee border.
1145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Our next cold front is currently marching southward through the Texas Panhandle and is set to push into the northern Permian Basin throughout the late morning, reaching at least the Pecos River by 18z. While an immediate cooldown is absent with the front, it'll bring in drier air, allowing low temperatures to fall well into the low 50s and upper 40s tonight. Surface winds quickly veer back to the southeast by Saturday afternoon as high pressure slides to our east. Deterministic NBM is on the higher end of this spread so have undercut it closer to the middle of the spread and the NAM MOS.