Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds out of the east should gradually become northeasterly with time, and dry air wrapping around the ridge to our north with filter in to the region. As dry air continues to flow in from the northeast, the lower humidity will allow Friday to feel a bit better despite slightly higher temperatures. Deeper mixing depths and broad large-scale subsidence should allow for temperatures in the lower 90s for most locations.
128 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure remains over the region through Friday.
137 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Weak wave of low pressure may bring isolated showers this afternoon into tonight across NC, but most will stay dry.
315 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure will expand across the Ohio Valley through the end of the week, with very warm and generally dry conditions.
Hot weather will continue Friday with record or near record high temps reaching the lower to middle 90s across most of our area (once again much cooler right along the Lake MI shoreline).
722 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 (This evening through Friday) A pattern of high pressure over the Great Lakes and low pressure off the Gulf Coast will persist through the short term period. On Friday, the ridge to our north builds southward, which will shift the area of convective development farther south into Middle TN/AL/GA, with only a slight chance PoP across the southern TN Valley, southern Plateau and SW NC.
624 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 (Tonight) High pressure nudging in from the north remains the dominant weather feature across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. This ridge is promoting fairly typical weather for the 1st day of June with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and partly cloudy conditions due to a scattered Cu field that has developed. Sufficient moisture underneath this ridge will allow for some low chances (20-30%) for diurnally driven showers and storms through early this evening. This activity should propagate from east to west given the mean easterly flow due to the ridge to the north and an area of low pressure to the south over the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow temperatures to cool off into the lower 60s by early Friday morning.
Otherwise, high pressure in control overnight will result in partly cloudy skies and light winds. Lows by daybreak drop down in the low to mid 60s.
821 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure will be located to the north northwest through the night, continuing the onshore flow pattern. High pressure continues to the north of the area, with the low pressure system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico having formed into a Tropical Depression. High temperatures for this afternoon will peak in the lower to mid 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s for the shoreline and for areas along the St Johns River.
(This afternoon through Friday) As the forecast area remains under the influence of a blocking pattern, the short term forecast is largely unchanged. While the upper level high pressure to the north and west of the county warning area builds in, the low pressure system to our southeast over the northeastern Gulf will gain strength. Maximum daily temperatures today will top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s, trending slightly warmer tomorrow where they are forecast to top out in the mid to upper 80s.
736 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 A hot and mainly dry stretch of weather will continue through the rest of the work week with high pressure in control.
820 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure will prevail through late week.
The upper trough over the eastern seaboard will elongate as the tropical system moves southward on Friday. This is where we have the highest pops on Friday, so changes made at this time. Overall dry air southeast on the periphery of the low in the gulf.
954 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure over the local area will move little through Friday night.
The modest warming trend that began today is forecast to continue through the weekend, as upper level high pressure builds over the area.
1032 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 A hot and mainly dry stretch of weather will continue through the rest of the work week with high pressure in control.
736 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure will prevail through late week.
714 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure continues to the north of the area, with the low pressure system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico having formed into a Tropical Depression. High temperatures for this afternoon will peak in the lower to mid 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s for the shoreline and for areas along the St Johns River.
Center of high pressure with anticylonic flow trajectories will continue to influence the weather through Friday. Mesoscale high pressure centers over the lake aggregate will maintain light easterly flow trajectories. 584dam ridge centered over the Lake Huron basin maintaining ongoing subsidence and a drier airmass (01.
644 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) Concur with deterministic runs that an upper N-S ridge axis will persist over the region during the period. An upper level disturbance is expected to move around the western periphery of the upper ridge Friday/Friday night, and thus the bulk of the associated forcing is expected to remain W/NW of the CWA. Despite afternoon CAPE and limited CIN values (NAM deterministic output), expect the combination of the upper ridge and limited moisture to restrict convective development, and thus concur with the very low NBM PoPs during the period.
1003 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Strong high pressure and dry air remain in control of our wx late this evening.
718 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure will expand across the Ohio Valley through the end of the week, with very warm and generally dry conditions.
The best chance, 60-70% will be found over the higher terrain of central Idaho.
1009 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure will prevail through late week.
703 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 (This evening through Friday) Alabama will be positioned between a high pressure system over the Ohio Valley and a low pressure system developing in the Gulf. Winds will be stronger in the southern half of the state where the strengthening low pressure system over the Gulf will cause a tightening pressure gradient. Tonight the low pressure in the Gulf will start to meander to the south.
Unsettled weather will remain in place through the end of the week as an upper level low encroaches on the region from the west.
CAMs very between completely fizzling off showers before midnight, and still very active with redevelopment along the Highway 2 corridor. There may be a weak warm front somewhere over the central Red River Valley, but the wind flow remains quite weak. Persistent upper level ridge will remain over the forecast area through most of the period.
816 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Little change in the pattern aloft over the next couple days as a weak blocking setup remains in place, so slightly below normal temps and slight precip chances continue.
Forecast for Friday remains on track, with high pressure building into eastern Wisconsin and keeping the axis of shower and storm potential across southwestern Wisconsin, where the best elevated instability and moisture sets up. For Fri, the closed 500 MB high currently over the lower Great Lakes will shift to much of nrn Ontario by 00Z Sat.
752 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure over the local area will move little through Friday night.
938 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure will expand across the Ohio Valley through the end of the week, with very warm and generally dry conditions.
Cloud-to- ground lightning strikes were observed in the nearshore waters due to some showers occurring in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys. The relatively calm conditions can be attributed to the eastward movement of the upper-level trough and the influx of dry air from the western Pacific that has spread across the region. Furthermore, the 00Z sounding indicated that the low and mid-levels of the atmosphere were saturated.
High temperatures are forecast to top out in the low to upper 80s.
305 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Hot/dry weather can be expected today under high pressure.
349 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Expansive mid- and upper-level ridging centered over the Great Lakes slowly dislodges westward through the day as a gradual pattern shift towards an omega block commences. 850mb thermal ridge remains overhead and model soundings continue to depict dry, stable conditions.
303 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Little change in the pattern aloft over the next couple days as a weak blocking setup remains in place, so slightly below normal temps and slight precip chances continue.
(Today) High pressure continues to hold in place over eastern Canada. On the southern edge of this area of high pressure over the southeastern CONUS, a very weak boundary is in place separating a a more moist airmass near and south of it from drier air further north. However, most areas will generally see lows in the lower to mid 60s.
232 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 The current, quite unusual, weather pattern remains static for today with broad southeasterly low level flow and southerly flow aloft, with an upper trough to the west and an upper high migrating in from the northeast.
128 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 High pressure will expand across the Ohio Valley through the end of the week, with very warm and generally dry conditions.
1209 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 High pressure will prevail through late week.
This has led to a decent ridge to valley temperature split where readings vary from the mid and upper 60s on the hills to mid and upper 50s in the eastern sheltered areas. They all depict a fairly benign pattern of general ridging to the northwest of Kentucky and lower heights to the southeast. This is prompting an atypical retrograding of mid level features moving from east to west through the region into the area - southeast of the ridge.
1237 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) Concur with deterministic runs that an upper N-S ridge axis will persist over the region during the period. An upper level disturbance is expected to move around the western periphery of the upper ridge Friday/Friday night, and thus the bulk of the associated forcing is expected to remain W/NW of the CWA. Despite afternoon CAPE and limited CIN values (NAM deterministic output), expect the combination of the upper ridge and limited moisture to restrict convective development, and thus concur with the very low NBM PoPs during the period.
A warming trend will lead to temperatures inching into the low 90s this weekend. As the upper ridge over the ArkLaTex continues to amplify, temperatures will inch into 90s territory.
230 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Little change in the pattern aloft over the next couple days as a weak blocking setup remains in place, so slightly below normal temps and slight precip chances continue.
Satellite/radar imagery late this evening shows deep convection across S-central MT beginning to shift westward in response as a mid level wave emebedded within the larger scale trough across the western US lifting north out of WY.
1033 PM MDT Thu Jun 1 2023 The upper level low off the Pacific northwest coast continues to sit northwest of Washington with a longwave trough extending to the southeast near the Four Corner region with a highly positive tilt.
142 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 High pressure will be located to the north northwest through the night, continuing the onshore flow pattern. High pressure continues to the north of the area, with the low pressure system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico having formed into a Tropical Depression. High temperatures for this afternoon will peak in the lower to mid 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s for the shoreline and for areas along the St Johns River.
1145 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Strong high pressure and dry air remain in control of our wx late this evening.
There could be a few diurnally enhanced showers/lone t'storm across inland SE GA this afternoon, but drier NNE flow on the back side of the digging upper level trough and subsidence in the mid/upper levels will limit convective growth and coverage.
Temperatures should climb into the mid/upper 80s for most, with some into the lower 90s.
The axis of the upper trough currently across the Four Corners will push eastward and is progged to develop a slight negative tilt as it approaches eastern New Mexico. Quiet conditions will follow behind convection with overnight lows dropping into the low 50s to low 60s.
Given everything stated thus far, it is no surprise that dew points are in the lower to mid 70s, keeping conditions muggy. In addition, looking at water vapor satellite imagery a lot of the lift associated with the longwave trough currently across the Gulf is also displaced to our east.
115 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Hot and dry weather can be expected today under high pressure.
117 AM PDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley will be slightly warmer today with most of the valley in the high 80's.
(Today) A broad area of negative upper level height anomalies is present across the southern United States, with one upper level low across the Desert Southwest and another over Florida. A weak ridge axis is present near the OK/AR border, with an anomalous upper level ridge centered in southeast Canada. In the short term, the best forcing and moisture continues to remain west of the area closer to the upper level low, so the majority of shower and thunderstorm activity will also remain west of the area. However, by afternoon the upper level low will be close enough to kick off a few storms, especially across central OK.
109 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 High pressure over the local area will move little through Friday night.
High pressure to the northeast continues to promote low level easterly flow through the short term. This easterly flow will continue to push drier air that as of 09Z is over the Ohio River Valley into the region throughout the day today with the highest moisture content being over central MO. The greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be today over central MO where the moisture content and surface instability is the highest. The highest temperatures are expected to be be in the St. Temperatures on Saturday will be the warmest with highs forecasted in the low to mid 90s. MMG/Glass A higher latitude omega block will be in place at the start of the period featuring an anomalously strong upper high centered near Lake Winnipeg.
554 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Hot/dry weather can be expected today under high pressure. A high pressure system will provide dry weather today and tonight. A cold front coming from the north is forecast to slide south through the area on Saturday. Regardless, with temperatures forecast in the low 90's, the convection or afternoon Cu will have plenty of fuel to become agitated during the daytime, although we are not looking at severe type storms just yet.
Digging a little deeper, a trough is developing across the northeast this morning and will shift west over the next 2 days.
Otherwise today continues the warming trend we have been on this week, with high temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
The current, quite unusual, weather pattern remains static for today with broad southeasterly low level flow and southerly flow aloft, with an upper trough to the west and an upper high migrating in from the northeast.
For today into tonight, a weak upper low will meander over WY with large-scale ascent over our region. The low-mid level flow also looks to produce upslope-enhanced rain over the foothills south and southwest of Billings. If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and do not drown! Later tonight into Saturday, the upper low over WY looks to move westward, which would take the better dynamics/forcing out of our area. Highs on Saturday will range from the 60s in the western foothills to the lower 80s over southeast MT.
554 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 VFR conditions prevail today and tonight as high pressure brings mostly clear skies. Expansive mid- and upper-level ridging centered over the Great Lakes slowly dislodges westward through the day as a gradual pattern shift towards an omega block commences. 850mb thermal ridge remains overhead and model soundings continue to depict dry, stable conditions. A mid-level trough diving southward into New England tomorrow will help nudge our persistent ridge farther west. Height falls associated with this trough will remain well to our east, but a ribbon of PVA will slide through the region tomorrow coincident with a backdoor cold front. Highs tomorrow will again be well above normal in the upper 80s for inland areas and cooler near the lakeshore.
915 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Weak high pressure will be over the region through Saturday. A backdoor cold front that will drop south through the area Saturday evening and night.
By Saturday morning, high pressure remains over the southeast U. Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms will develop along the east coast sea breeze with the highest coverage over the interior and southwest Florida.
(Rest of Today) High pressure will continue to stretch across the northern Atlantic Coast, pushing a drier airmass into the area.
Strong surface and subtle upper level ridging influences over western Gulf of Mexico will be catalyst to ushering in warmer air across mid state region, with highs today seasonable warm ranging upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region.
An inverted upper trough axis is located across the Tennessee Valley with the max PVA and support for convection south of our region today. We will see more influence this afternoon and Saturday from the subsidence and drier air observed in WV imagery along the eastern periphery of the northern plains ridge extending into the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians. Temperatures will be warm today and Saturday with the influence of ridging and the drier airmass. Otherwise today continues the warming trend we have been on this week, with high temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
Tropical Depression Two continues to remain weak and is moving further from our local area over the Gulf of Mexico as an upper low continues to weaken and shift away as well.
619 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 (Today through Saturday) Decreasing cloud cover and rain-free conditions today as a ridge axis sits directly over South & East Texas. Although the upper ridge axis shifts southeastward, the mid-level ridge axis lags behind and persists through tonight. A mid-level trough will push its way into the Texas Panhandle on Saturday, causing fluctuations in the mid-level flow near its base and developing areas of positive vorticity advection throughout Texas. 5") and predominantly under a ridge axis, kept with previous forecast and NBM PoPs below 10%.
This has led to a decent ridge to valley temperature split where readings vary from the mid and upper 60s on the hills to mid and upper 50s in the eastern sheltered areas. They all depict a fairly benign pattern of general ridging to the northwest of Kentucky and lower heights to the southeast. This is prompting an atypical retrograding of mid level features moving from east to west through the region into the area - southeast of the ridge. Sensible weather will feature a warm end to the week and start of the weekend on the southeast edge of the ridge. Look for similar conditions tonight as this night with a ridge to valley temperature difference and areas of valley fog.
Temperatures throughout the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. There were no tropical cyclones in the area.
While Saturday will be almost a repeat once again, look for a few more showers and storms to work back into the lower Snake Plain and Magic Valley as the low slowly moves back to the west. With more cloud cover around for all and continued rain and storms, highs will be just slightly cooler today and tomorrow with most in the mid 60s to low 70s.
610 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 (Today) A broad area of negative upper level height anomalies is present across the southern United States, with one upper level low across the Desert Southwest and another over Florida. A weak ridge axis is present near the OK/AR border, with an anomalous upper level ridge centered in southeast Canada. In the short term, the best forcing and moisture continues to remain west of the area closer to the upper level low, so the majority of shower and thunderstorm activity will also remain west of the area. However, by afternoon the upper level low will be close enough to kick off a few storms, especially across central OK.
634 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 (Friday through Saturday) A quiet and warm end to the workweek is in order as upper level ridging will stay in place for at least another day.
Low pressure over south-central Oregon will depart this morning. This means high pressure will be building in. The building high pressure will lead to temperatures being 5 to 10 degrees above the afternoon highs yesterday. A thermal trough is also beginning to develop along the coast as a consequence. Brookings isn't expected to be much warmer than elsewhere along the coast today, due to the east wind still being weak. The east winds will also bring moderate humidity recoveries to the ridges.
438 AM MDT Fri Jun 2 2023 The upper level low off the Pacific Northwest coast continues to sit northwest of Washington with a longwave trough extending to the southeast near the Four Corners region with a highly positive tilt. Cooler temperatures at or below average for this time of year and breezy wind gusts up to 20-30 mph expected each day due to passing rain showers and storm outflows.
Highs are forecast to climb into the lower to middle 90s today and tomorrow with lows tonight in the lower to middle 70s. The axis of an H5 ridge is over the County Warning Area (CWA) and will limit the potential for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A weak vorticity max is forecast to swirl across Central Texas this evening, helping to weaken the ridge a bit.
and Saturday The forecast area will continue to remain under a retrograding upper- level ridge through Saturday, which will result in afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms and above normal temperatures.
Previous Discussion: Large scale subsidence with an upper ridge centered northeast of the region will maintain dry conditions today, as it slowly retrogrades west.
923 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Hot/dry weather can be expected today under high pressure. A high pressure system will provide dry weather today and tonight. A cold front coming from the north is forecast to slide south through the area on Saturday. Regardless, with temperatures forecast in the low 90's, the convection or afternoon Cu will have plenty of fuel to become agitated during the daytime, although we are not looking at severe type storms just yet.
High pressure over the northern plains with a weak flow across southern tier states. A chaotic flow with multiple weaknesses in the flow under the broad larger scale mean ridge position.
Highs today will be similar to the last few days, with upper 80s to low 90s expected, with cooler temperatures near Lake Michigan, and also over south central/southwestern Wisconsin, where cloud cover will be more widespread.
A gradual warming trend will continue today as the upper level pattern slowly amplifies between an expansive ridge building over the central and eastern CONUS and a deep low centered off the BC coast. Expect highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday across the inland valleys, generally topping out in the mid to upper 70s as 850 mb temps climb to around 8 degrees C this afternoon.
Slightly cooler temps wl be seen across Wrn AR where rain and cloud cover are prominent.
(Today through Saturday) Blocking pattern across the US remains the main player in the forecast going into the weekend. The area remains caught in between the Tropical Depression and associated upper low to the south over the GOM and the blocking upper ridge across the Great Lakes. With the lower pops and drier airmass, expect afternoon temps to climb each day with most areas touching 90 by Saturday.