Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An approaching cold front may bring unsettled conditions for the weekend. Any heavier showers this afternoon/evening could put down a coating of snow over localized areas especially over the higher terrain. W/NW winds will advect cooler air into the region and 850 mb temperatures will dip to -7 to -10C over the area. After a cold start to the day high pressure slides to just southeast of our region. With steep low level lapse rates forecast, it will remain quite a bit Cooler in the hills.
358 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 Strong ridging is currently depicted well on water vapor imagery/RAP analysis, and the latest radar mosaic is quiet. Temperatures across the area are generally ranging from the low 30s across the interior west with mid to upper 30s over the remainder of Upper Michigan. With slightly more cloud cover due to the aforementioned wave, the Keweenaw will trend a tad warmer in the upper 20s. A mid level closed low rotates over Hudson Bay, slowly shifting eastward through the weekend with ridging over the U.
With some moisture flux of Lake Michigan, still enough low level moisture to generate flat low clouds this afternoon, and temperatures once again only touching the lower 40s.
Our pattern will begin to show signs of a shift by Thursday evening as the first in a series of warmer low pressure systems provide breezy winds along with light rain and high elevation snow showers across NE California and NW Nevada.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Benign weather conditions can be expected to continue through the short-term period as the area generally remains under the influence of a high pressure system. Although in general not anticipating temperatures to reach freezing, this cannot be ruled out completely over low-lying drainage areas. Tomorrow will be warmer with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, and overnight lows in the low 50s to mid 60s.
Tonight will be the coldest night since early Spring with widespread sub-freezing temperatures likely to end the growing season in central PA. 5 inches (with locally higher values at Hidden Valley) along with snowfall expected later this evening brings max storm total snowfall to 3-4" along the highest ridges. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions throughout the day will be on the decrease later in the evening, setting the stage for the coldest night since early Spring (late March/early April) with high confidence in sub-freezing temps in the 20s.
/KP/ Today and Tonight: continued colder than normal and dry through the period with fire weather concerns today and near record cold temperatures below freezing tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a dry reinforcing cold front just south of the Interstate 20 corridor and a >1032mb high centered over the central Plains. There have been a few gusts out of the north observed with the passage of the cold front along with drier air noted by lower dew points but, the cooler temperatures have been a little slower to materialize as temperatures were still running several degrees above freezing across our northern zones at 3AM. Satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the axis of the upper level trough that was driving the cold front, already east of Mississippi. Subfreezing temperatures for more than three hours are expected to result in significant damage to unprotected vegetation.
/12 (Now through Thursday) Overall large scale upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will continue through the period. Last night, with the tighter pressure gradient the winds stayed up and most locations remained above freezing, with lows generally ranging from the mid/upper 30s to lower 40s across the area. Tonight as the high settles across the area and the gradient lessens, we expect much lighter winds, and with dewpoints still expected to be in the upper teens and lower 20s for most locations, we expect that temperatures will drop more significantly tonight. We do think that many inland locations away from the coast will likely see their first freeze of the season tonight, with lows ranging from the upper 20s up around the Highway 84 corridor, to the lower 30s further south all the way down to the I-10 corridor.
Lake-effect showers are still ongoing across the northern half of the area this afternoon, along with some scattered light showers over the higher terrain being driven by upslope flow. Both surface and air temperatures have risen above freezing in most locations, so expect little in terms of accumulation or impacts from these except for reduced driving visibilities. High pressure builds into the area this evening, resulting in a shift in winds to westerly and then southerly, effectively shutting off the lake-effect machine and drying out the area. Dry conditions return Thursday as high pressure continues to build in across the region and zonal flow sets up aloft. High temperatures reach the mid to upper 40s Thursday afternoon and only dip into the low 30s Thursday night.
The center of that area of high pressure will quickly drift east and southeast of our area during the day Thursday. The low stratus and fog could remain problematic through at least the mid-late morning hours before lifting and clearing. Daytime temperatures are expected to be back in the low to mid 40s north and northeast to the upper 40s to low 50s in our south and southwest. The pattern favoring west CONUS ridging, and eastern CONUS troffing. Within that flow setup, several waves aloft do make their way through the ridge and across the Northern Plains. Another broad wave/trof aloft enters the picture for Mon-Tue.
-Widespread freezing temperatures tonight/Thursday morning. Broad upper level troughing is currently gliding across the Eastern CONUS ushering a reinforcing surface boundary through North Georgia at the time of this writing. Temperatures by sunrise across much of North Georgia are expected to be right at or slightly below freezing (with upper 20 in the far northeast Georgia mtns). Much cooler and drier conditions will prevail through the short- term as a 1030+ mb high pressure center sets up across the MS River Valley and extends eastward through Thursday. Slightly warmer temperatures expected on Thursday with forecast highs in the mid to upper 50s.
317 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure will build into the area tonight into Thursday with any snow showers ending.
A deepening mid-level trough embedded within this flow will lift northeastward from western NY/PA this morning into northern New England by 0Z, with strong NW flow of 45-55 knots expected to continue across the TN Valley in the wake of this disturbance.
Southerly return flow and abundant sunshine will allow temperatures to be nearly 10 degrees warmer than they have been the last couple of days.
154 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure yields dry weather starting today and warming temperatures through the weekend.
High pressure continues to bring dry conditions to the Bay Area today. An approaching disturbance will bring increasing cloud cover through the day Thursday with cooler temperature and higher humidity. Rain is likely this weekend, with the highest accumulation in the North Bay.
Conditions will also be favorable for the development of widespread frost across the entire region, and perhaps even the development of small patches of freezing fog near bodies of water (primarily in the hours right around sunrise).
1224 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 (Today through Thursday) Key Messages: - Settled conditions - Minor coastal flooding possible Overall expecting a quasi-zonal flow with subsidence aloft and expanding high pressure. Tomorrow highs will warm into the low 70s accompanied by increasing clouds as moisture filters back onshore.
This is helping temperatures in the Valley into northwest and west-central Minnesota reach above freezing, with mid to upper 30s in areas lacking in snowfall in the southern Valley, in addition to the forested areas of Minnesota. With the slightly warmer air mass eeking into the area tomorrow, similar temperatures well into the 30s.
One more night of near-freezing conditions will occur tonight, with the exception of the central Metroplex urban core. Given that readings in some of the east central/and southern counties didn't reach freezing levels in a widespread sense this morning, will go ahead with another Freeze Warning along/south of an Athens to Lampasas line for Thursday morning.
214 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 - Lake effect snow tapers off after daybreak - Sunny and quiet weather returns with high pressure building in High pressure centered over the Central Plains is extending ridging into the Great Lakes for today, which should lead to more sunshine and generally dry conditions today. This has kept temperatures several degrees warmer than expected across the southern UP, but with skies clearing out and a couple more hours until daybreak, we should still see some readings in the lower to mid teens. Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough across most of the U. with a ridge on the west coast 00z Thu. By 12z Mon, a trough moves into the upper Great Lakes as a ridge builds into the Rockies. This trough digs into the ern U.
1222 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 Winds have begun to gradually decrease in speed this morning as high pressure builds in and the pressure gradient relaxes. Winds have been lower due to decoupling but the low level inversion isn't strong enough to keep winds calm but this will not be the case tonight and decoupling will be strong enough to bring winds to calm at least toward sunrise Thu. Temps will be fully capable of reaching below freezing for most of the northern tier of counties/parishes as the night progresses.
A clear and mostly calm night results in another cool morning in the 30s though the freezing temperatures will be limited to the higher elevations and our northernmost zones.
356 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure builds into the area tonight and moves offshore during Thursday.
1245 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 Canadian high pressure will build over the area through late week. The Arctic cold front currently pinned along the NC mtns and foothills will start to advect east over the next few hours. Canadian high pressure centered over the area will continue to build east, with the center of the high moving off the mid-Atlantic coast Thursday evening. Highs in the lower/mid 50s north to mid/upper 50s south, which is still 10-12 degrees below normal. Thus, many places across the NC Piedmont will likely experience a second consecutive night of freezing temps.
1253 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure yields dry weather starting today and warming temperatures through the weekend.
Tonight will be the coldest night since early Spring with widespread sub-freezing temperatures likely to end the growing season in central PA. The highest totals will be on the highest ridges of the Alleghenies where less than an inch can be expected. 5 inches (with locally higher values at Hidden Valley) along with snowfall expected later this evening brings max storm total snowfall to 3-4" along the highest ridges. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions throughout the day will be on the decrease later in the evening, setting the stage for the coldest night since early Spring (late March/early April) with high confidence in sub-freezing temps in the 20s.
703 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 SE Mi is locked in between a large area of high pressure covering the Gulf coast/SE states and low pressure from central Canada into the central Plains. Lake Michigan activity is limited to VFR stratocu tonight before dry air shuts down these lower clouds and as mid clouds, with some virga, thicken from the Midwest as a sign of warmer air moving in from the Plains. With some moisture flux of Lake Michigan, still enough low level moisture to generate flat low clouds this afternoon, and temperatures once again only touching the lower 40s.
High pressure continues to build into the area in the wake of the cold front that moved across the peninsula over the past 24-36 hours. Expect overnight lows down to around 40 degrees north to the lower 60s south. Broad upper troughing sits over the eastern seaboard while a dry cold front extends through southern Florida. Strong high pressure builds in behind this front from the northwest and will help usher in some cooler air for the next 36 hours. Temperatures will slowly rise this afternoon only into the low to mid 70's for north and central Florida and upper 70's to around 80 for southwest Florida. By Thursday, the high pressure center will be located over the mid-Atlantic states and will continue to ridge southwest over Florida producing northeasterly winds.
High pressure builds into the area this evening, resulting in a shift in winds to westerly and then southerly, effectively shutting off the lake-effect machine and drying out the area. Dry conditions return Thursday as high pressure continues to build in across the region and zonal flow sets up aloft. High temperatures reach the mid to upper 40s Thursday afternoon and only dip into the low 30s Thursday night.
740 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 Tonight will be the coldest night since early Spring with widespread sub-freezing temperatures expected to end the growing season in central PA.
434 PM MDT Wed Nov 1 2023 Western ridge will break down this period, with a northwest flow early in the period transitioning to a zonal flow by the end of the period.
614 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure builds into the area tonight and moves offshore during Thursday.
802 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure builds tonight with a cold air mass settling. Warmer trends return for the weekend.
626 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) Broad high pressure over the lower Texas coast and deep South Texas/RGV. Still seeing some after effects of the recent cold front. A weak short wave trough will transit over the middle and upper Texas coast Thursday and Thursday night, but other than a fe extra clouds, nothing germaine for our CWA.
High pressure continues to settle over most of CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will have an influence over us. For the rest of the GA counties, look for the low to mid 40s and then for the rest of FL look for temperatures to span vary across the 40s.
The robust high pressure system perched in the Midwest and Central United States will continue to slide eastward over the next several days. A tightening of the pressure gradient due to the high pressure well northwest of the region and the cold front south of the Florida Keys is promoting moderate to occasionally fresh breezes, mainly in the Hawk Channel and the Florida Straits. A robust high pressure moving out of the Midwest and central United States will shift eastward over the next several days. The tightening of the pressure gradient due to the potent high and the cold front south of the Florida Keys has ushered in freshening breezes.
627 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 (The rest of this afternoon ) Temperatures tonight wonât be quite as cold as last night with high pressure shifting east of the area and southerly winds in place. Mejia (Tonight through Wednesday) Low-level warm advection will increase through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend, with surface ridging centered across the eastern CONUS.
805 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure builds into the area tonight and moves offshore during Thursday.
636 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 Tonight will be the coldest night since early Spring with widespread sub-freezing temperatures expected to end the growing season in central PA.
High pressure will bring a gradual warming trend through the remainder of the week.
Dry and warm New Year's Day courtesy of high pressure.
943 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022 Generally dry weather is expected through Sunday afternoon as a ridge builds in the wake of a cold front.
Showers have ended across the area as a cold front weakens and moves through SE GA and NE FL tonight. Rainfall chances end around midnight as boundary washes out and leaves very moist air mass in place with widespread dew points in the 60s and expect low stratus to develop area-wide and lower down to the surface in dense fog by the morning hours and advisories will likely need to be posted over the land and likely into the Atlantic Coastal waters as the West-Southwest flow pushes the stratus/fog into the cooler ocean waters.
Lows across our area should stay in the low to mid 50s. Expect highs in the low 70s across much of the area Sunday afternoon, with partly cloudy skies.
Conditions are highly variable with reports of riming/heavy frost in the dense freezing fog and very light mist mainly associated with these dense pockets. Actual freezing drizzle in the east may have transitions out of the area, so the main impacts are going to be where this freezing fog develops and tracks and current conditions with the previous advisory are highly variable. High resolution guidance indicates that this will persist and eventually new dense freezing fog may overspread our entire forecast area through the late evening/overnight. Freezing drizzle is possible tonight, especially in northwest Minnesota near the Red Lakes. Fog is the most dense along where moisture advection exists ahead of the 850mb trough. Weak warm air advection ahead of the 850 trough will allow for some freezing drizzle potential in northwest to north central Minnesota.
High pressure will push off the SE U. coast Mon then seaward Tue-Wed while dragging a trailing ridge axis southward across the local Atlc waters. High pressure builds back into the Florida peninsula to start the New Year. Temperatures remaining warm; however, cloud cover should help to keep temperatures one to two degrees cooler than Saturday. High pressure pushes off the southeast U. coast Mon and continues eastward as a cold front advances east across the Deep South. Cooler, more seasonable temps are forecast Thu night in the U40s and 50s with highs Fri in the M60s north to the M70s south. High pressure spreads across the eastern CONUS into Sat with dry conditions and light northerly winds. Highs Sat will mirror or be slightly warmer than Fri, with lows again the U40s and 50s.
307 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2023 Dry and mild New Year's Day courtesy of high pressure.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) A very broad and weak ridge is approaching West Texas and eastern New Mexico this afternoon. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will also be warmer as highs reach well into the 70s at most locations. Sunday night the weak ridge is off to the east and a deep upper level low moves into the Great Basin region of the United States.
Current observations has snow as the main precipitation type along that band, however at LDM it seems to be unknown, which given the temperature and dewpoint is potentially freezing rain. Dewpoints along the I 94 corridor are above freezing so any precipitation that moves into there will be rain. So a brief period of freezing rain/drizzle is possible from now until 15Z along the I 96 corridor and will move northward as temperatures warm by mid morning. Temperatures will warm to the low 40s though the trapped low level moisture only aided by any precipitation will allow for patchy fog and low clouds to persist through today.
108 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2023 Showers have ended across the area as a cold front weakens and moves through SE GA and NE FL tonight.
1018 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Boosted afternoon highs a few degrees this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 70s under gusty downslope southwest winds. Temperatures on Sunday should be at least a few degrees warmer and may push near the 80 degree mark in some locations.
1230 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2023 Generally dry weather is expected through Sunday afternoon as a ridge builds in the wake of a cold front.
1244 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2023 A ridge of high pressure continues to bring dry weather to the region this evening. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower to mid 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region to around 70 across the east coast metro areas. Partly cloudy skies today and warm with highs in the low to middle 80s. Great weather tonight for New Years Eve festivities, looking dry and warm with temps in the low to middle 70s around midnight.
1028 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022 A cold front will push east of Central PA early tonight.
Evening satellite and radar imagery showing upper low center tracking through central CA with a preceding moisture plume stretching through central NV. Areas of dense will persist tonight across the lower Snake Plain and other sheltered valleys of SE Oregon and SW Idaho.
1145 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2022 We received numerous reports of freezing drizzle across Minnesota and a few reports from northwest Wisconsin. The freezing drizzle was falling in the wake of the snow and freezing drizzle mix over the Arrowhead as of 1105 PM. Consequently we have updated the forecast to include a mention of freezing drizzle and light snow throughout the night. Forecast highlights include a band of light snow late this afternoon and tonight followed by fog and freezing drizzle tonight into Sunday morning.
As such, temperatures on New Years Day will remain above average, but at least a few degrees cooler than yesterday as increasing cloud cover ahead of the approaching trough keeps afternoon highs in the 50s.
1109 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2022 We received numerous reports of freezing drizzle across Minnesota and a few reports from northwest Wisconsin. The freezing drizzle was falling in the wake of the snow and freezing drizzle mix over the Arrowhead as of 1105 PM. Consequently we have updated the forecast to include a mention of freezing drizzle and light snow throughout the night. Forecast highlights include a band of light snow late this afternoon and tonight followed by fog and freezing drizzle tonight into Sunday morning.
By Sunday afternoon, highs will be in the mid to upper 70s areawide, with a few hotspots likely to reach into the low 80s.
Southerly breezes in the lower trop allowed for the development of sea fog, bringing visibilities below one quarter of a mile for most locations.
1032 PM MST Sat Dec 31 2022 Upper trough beginning to dig into the western CONUS and will eventually eject into the central plains this week, supporting heavy snow over parts of the region. Weak impulse traversing the region this afternoon, resulting in some light snow over the higher elevations of the central and southern BH, with dry air winning out elsewhere. Attention then turns toward the vigorous upper trough taking aim on the region.
The rest of today will be warm and sunny with light winds and highs reaching the lower 80s. Patchy to dense fog is expected with the lowest visibilities near the coast. Then, skies clear out and high temperatures have no problems reaching the lower 80s by the afternoon for the first day of the new year.
Some models show a weak pseudo warm front could develop across northern/central portions of fa tonight into tomorrow.
230 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 Impacts in the short term will be related to dense fog and slick conditions due to freezing fog. This has resulted in a pooling of low level moisture that is deep enough to support dense fog, but shallow enough with forcing out of our CWA to limit risk of freezing drizzle. That doesn't mean we do no have potential for slick travel though, as dense freezing fog/rime has been reported and suspended supercooled droplets within these dense fog pockets can still cause icing on untreated surfaces.
and todays forecast shows a less than 20 pct chance of a stray shower roughly over the southern half of the area with variable clouds and warmer than normal temps. Showers should shift over the Atlc waters this evening as the trough washes out. High pressure along the SE US coast will produce a light NE wind flow, veering east by late in the day. High pressure will continue eastward as a cold front advances east across the deep South Tue-Wed. Max temps in the low to mid 80s Tue-Wed.
523 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 (Today and tonight) A warm front will continue to slowly nudge northward through the morning hours. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s appear likely across SE OK by sunrise Monday.