Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Feel the dissipation of the low clouds and fog could be a slow process through the first of the day. Model soundings do indicate weak low level flow will persist and the lowest 1kft of the atmosphere remains saturated through late morning/early afternoon. Farther west, highs in the low to mid 40s are expected. Ridging aloft then builds strongly across the Northern Plains for Tue-Thu, with generally dry conditions, and quite mild temperatures.
- Trending warmer with more sunshine through the work week. Forecast Discussion: Currently, a large scale trough axis has been shifting east of the forecast area. Temperatures warm up into the first part of the upcoming week as a broad upper level ridge builds over the central CONUS helping develop a lee trough which will enhance southerly to southwesterly flow into the region aiding in further warming through the week.
We will feature a 1 to 3 inch snow forecast with the highest near and north of Fremont, Newaygo and Big Rapids. Temperatures will still be marginally freezing for most areas, so snow will be of the wet and slushy variety. Road temperatures are also currently just above freezing south of US-10, although some accumulations are possible during times of higher snow rates. HREF ensemble guidance highlights the highest precipitation rates between 7am to 11am this morning. Above freezing temperatures should help any lingering snow to melt on contact. Moisture wanes as the main system exits further east and mid level ridging moves in.
A upper level low will move across the Mississippi Valley tonight, and a back door cold front will push down sometime early Monday morning. Temperatures across the northern portions of the CWA will fall below freezing as the front combines with light winds and clear skies, but areas further south should only fall to the mid to upper 30s. As such, highs on Monday will be cooler across the north in the low 60s, but slightly warmer to the south in the upper 60s to low 70s.
High pressure will build back into the region to start the work week with another potential storm system lined up for the late week.
The main compact H700-500 trough across the southern High Plains will still deliver some diurnally driven westerly winds in the 15-25 mph range sustained, especially in the SW TX Panhandle where higher sustained winds are possible. Downsloping winds will allow high temperatures to range from the lower to upper 60s across the Panhandles. Watching a cold front, as of the latest 09Z obs across the northern Plains move south through the morning before entering the Panhandles this afternoon. Southwest winds return tomorrow and with the main compact trough moving east, winds will wane compared to today.
At this time, will mention the potential of slick spots on bridges with ice deposition from the fog in the Advisory, but would consider a Freezing Fog Advisory if we get reports of ice causing problems. We do not have the stratus today, so fog should burn off with lots of sun and warmer temperatures today. Many of the projected radar depictions in the high-resolution models do show that they expect some precipitation to fall from this mid-level moisture, but there is almost no QPF signal indicating that this will mainly be virga, which makes sense given the dry low-levels.
- Strong northwesterly winds are expected this afternoon behind a cold front.
459 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023 (Today through Monday Night) On Sunday, the upper lvl flow pattern remains active with an approaching maturing trof that will develop into an upper lvl low pressure center into Monday will track over locations just north of the CWA. Temperatures on Sunday will still be warmer than climatological normals for this time of the year: high temperatures across northern Arkansas will vary from the mid 50's to low 60's, then into central and southern Arkansas between the upper 50's to mid 60's.
Otherwise, mild/breezy conditions expected today ahead of a cold front, which will move into northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon.
An approaching trough of low pressure towards the middle of the upcoming week will bring the return of unsettled weather. Expecting the focus to shift northward throughout the day as a ridge of high pressure begins to build into the Central Coast. Another cool afternoon is in store with temperatures struggle to warm much beyond the mid 60s across the interior, upper 50s elsewhere and lower 50s in the highest peaks. Tonight, look for temperatures to cool into the lower 50s in the hills and around the San Francisco Bay Shoreline to the mid 40s elsewhere.
Downsloping winds from the Hill Country will lead to slightly warmer temps today. A light onshore flow will return tonight which will encourage slightly warmer lows tonight. Despite increased low level convergence along the boundary and a passing stream of H5 vorticity (thanks to a trough along the Baja coast), expecting a dry FROPA as there will be very little moisture to work with.
-Generally warmer and drier conditions for most through the upcoming week.
Look for gradual drying to happen tonight and Monday as high pressure tries to build in from the west with slight warming through mid-week. Highs today will slowly climb into the 40s to possibly low 50s in some of the lower valley locations. With the potential for partial clearing, have added patchy freezing fog to the valley locations across northern Nevada.
534 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023 - Light snow, drizzle, and freezing drizzle continue through this morning, mainly east of I-35 and into western WI. - Temperatures remain seasonal to open this week but much warmer than normal temperatures are expected the latter half of the work week. This is causing overcast, low stratus and freezing drizzle to occur across southeastern MN. Some clearing across western MN is expected tonight, which should allow lows to sink into the lower 20s. Areas east will be warmer in the mid to upper 20s.
(Today through Monday) As of 3 AM the cold front is now east of an Anniston to Selma line and quickly advecting east. Decreasing clouds and patchy fog will be the story through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon as high pressure builds into the region.
After a cold start, temperatures will be around 4 to 8 degrees warmer than yesterday.
(Sunday through Monday) The first in a series of weak, reinforcing cold fronts will move across the area this morning. The next, and somewhat stronger, cold front will move across the forecast area this evening and tonight.
The next Pacific trough, as seen in GOES-18 Water Vapor imagery, is beginning to move onshore in the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia early this morning. A warm front, associated with this trough, will spread precipitation across Idaho and Clearwater Counties by the late morning hours. Winter weather advisories remain in effect for Clearwater Mountains, the Bitterroot and Sapphire Mountains, and the Lower Clark Fork Region, where higher confidence exists for moderate snow and travel impacts, primarily for mountain pass areas.
617 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023 Reinforcing cold front brings rain through tonight. Expect wind gusts of 15-25 mph across the lowlands, with 25-35 mph in the mountains. West southwest flow aloft brings warmer temperatures this afternoon, generally around 60 degrees lowlands, ranging into the upper 40s northeast mountains.
220 AM PST Sun Dec 3 2023 Warming is still on track this week as high pressure builds over the West.
High temperatures will reach into the low to upper 60s and low temperatures overnight will drop into the low to upper 40s.
204 AM PST Sun Dec 3 2023 Showers near the Sierra crest, far northeast CA and northwest NV and breezy winds will wind down today, with high pressure bringing a few days of drier and warmer conditions and lighter winds to the region.
However, temperatures will be steady or slightly warmer Monday given a lack of cold air advection and chinook warming effect.
630 AM EST Sun Dec 03 2023 A cold front will sweep across the region later this afternoon and tonight. A couple of moisture starved clipper low pressures will move across the region early this week. A chance of a few light showers with the cold frontal passage this afternoon. Clear and cooler tonight. The warm front has lifted north into VA early this morning. Low pressure currently over the TN Valley will move well to our north today. The trailing cold front will move east across NC this afternoon and evening. A clipper type low pressure will approach NC in the NW flow aloft early Monday. Highs should range from the lower 60s NW to near 70 SE Monday. Northerly flow will bring cooler overnight lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s by 12z/Tue.
Overnight lows Sunday into Monday should be similar to tonight, maybe holding a degree or two warmer due to the increased cloud cover aloft limiting radiational cooling. That also keeps the chance of fog toward the lower Texas coast.
538 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023 (Today through Monday) As of 3 AM the cold front is now east of an Anniston to Selma line and quickly advecting east. Decreasing clouds and patchy fog will be the story through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon as high pressure builds into the region.
622 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023 Rain ends late this morning as a cold front pushes across, with breezy conditions this afternoon.
A slightly cooler air mass will build into the area in the wake of this disturbance with highs in the upper 30s to around 40 on Monday and lows down into the 20s Monday night.
Even though surface air temperatures have been just above freezing in Baker County, the precipitation type has remained snow and it has been heavy enough to accumulate on roads this morning.
347 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023 A cold front will pass through the area tonight.
East of this trough, low clouds are contributing to aviation impacts (see Aviation Discussion for more information).
- Strong northwesterly winds will impact southwest KS Sunday in the wake of a cold front, with sustained winds in the 25-35 mph range and gusts up to 50-55 mph.
Temperatures will only climb a few more degrees and top out in the low-mid 70s for most. RH values have fallen into the low 20s or teens for those west of I-35, which when combined with the warmth, plentiful sunshine, and winds 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, have resulted in an elevated threat of spreading grassfires this afternoon. A southwest/downslope flow regime has developed across the Southern Plains ahead of a low pressure system currently moving across the Central CONUS. An attendant cold front is forecast to move through the entire forecast area tonight. Tomorrow should be another good weather day, albeit slightly cooler. A high pressure center will build into West Texas early, then move across North and Central Texas late in the day.
106 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023 A cold front will pass through the area this evening.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) Morning low clouds have begun to erode as yesterdays cold front continues to push east into the mid Atlantic. Under high pressure, mostly clear conditions will allow for temperatures to cool off quickly after sunset. High clouds filtering in from the NW around midnight is what will keep us well above freezing with lows in the low 40s and high 30s.
-Warmer for the later half of the work week with very mild temperatures. Overall coverage of PoPs have been cut back to the far south into this evening closest to the deeper saturation associated with the upper low. This should help scour out the lower ceilings and fog by late morning with temperatures climbing into the 40s for most areas. Forcing increases rapidly by late afternoon in advance of the approaching trof.
This will be ahead of a weak cold front that is being driven southward by an upper level short wave trough moving quickly southeastward over the central Plains.
The wind is forecast to become west-northwest across portions of northeast Oklahoma late this afternoon as a cold front moves into the area.
1209 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023 The majority of the Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire on time but it has been extended for another hour across the lower Ouachitas, including McCurtain County in SE OK and a few of the adjacent counties in SW AR (Sevier and Howard). Otherwise, the forecast is largely on track with only a few minor updates to high temperatures for this afternoon as hourly trends have shown a bit faster warming across some of our southern zones despite the high clouds streaming in from the SW. /19/ (Sunday through Monday) The first in a series of weak, reinforcing cold fronts will move across the area this morning. The next, and somewhat stronger, cold front will move across the forecast area this evening and tonight.
(This evening through Monday) Breezy conditions will continue through early this evening in the wake of a weak upper-level disturbance tracking across the area this afternoon, and ahead of a trailing weak cold front that will make its way across the region tonight. Once the weak cold front passes through tonight, winds will briefly shift to north to northwesterly and become light and variable overnight. Overnight lows are likely to dip back down into lower 30s to lower 40s, with a few low lying areas falling below the freezing mark for a few hours during the overnight and early morning hours.
(This evening through Monday) The cold front has cleared Central Alabama with westerly flow at the surface. A fast moving area of low pressure just to our north with a trailing cold front will move west to east across the region during the day on Monday. A reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air will move in behind the dry front with breezy westerly to northwesterly winds gusting between 20 and 25mph at times.
(Rest of Today) Lingering cloud cover from yesterdays cold front kept us insulated and warm last night with morning lows only in the 50s. Current temps are only a few degrees warmer in the mid 50s. Highs are only forecast to reach the low 60s before sunset.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Strong high pressure centered to the northeast of Bermuda continues to hold its grip across the Florida Keys for now with marine platforms observing south to southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots with Island Chain communities observing 5 to 10 mph. Strong high pressure over the western North Atlantic will loosen its grip across the Keys tonight resulting in mostly variable winds.
(The rest of this afternoon ) Cold front currently into NW OK will sweep quickly eastward this evening with breezy northerly winds following.
Across the higher terrain though, especially across the southern and eastern highlands, snowfall amounts of an additional 2-6 inches are likely through the evening. 6-15 inches across the highest terrain seems reasonable and Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect to account for this. Clouds will stick around tomorrow but temperatures continue to warm with highs ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s for much of the area which should allow for some ample melting of the snowpack, especially in the lower valleys.
1113 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023 Morning model guidance continue to show a upper-level trough axis across east Texas make its way east towards central Mississippi. The ongoing cloud cover combined with limited sunshine will help keep afternoon temperatures in the low 60s. High temperatures will reach into the low to upper 60s and low temperatures overnight will drop into the low to upper 40s.
346 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023 Cooler and drier weather will arrive behind a cold front tonight.
Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will range form the lower 40s north to the mid and upper 40s in the south. Short wave ridging will shift quickly east across our area Monday night before yet another mid level short wave approaches from the west late. Lows Monday night will be in the low to mid 30s.
Despite this, the train of weak cold fronts continues, with another reinforcement coming late tonight/early tomorrow morning, which will veer winds more towards northerly by morning, and northeasterly tomorrow and tomorrow night. However, even where there's sun, the northerly winds and modest cold advection should make tomorrow a touch cooler than today, with highs mostly in the upper 60s, rather than bracketed around 70. With the drier air already in place from the last reinforcing front and more on the way from the next one, we can obviously anticipate the weather to remain fair through this weak frontal passage, and that will only continue through tomorrow and tomorrow night as high pressure drops in from the northwest.
A cooler airmass ushers in behind the associated frontal passage for Monday. Lows tonight fall into the lower 30s. Monday: A cooler day on Monday with highs in the middle 40s (north) to lower 50s (south). This is a result of a building ridge across the western CONUS through will support a warming trend and drier weather mid to late week.
Temperatures will begin a cooling trend though in the wake of this wave with Monday night's temperatures falling into the low and mid-30's areawide.
1148 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023 (Today through Monday Night) On Sunday, the upper lvl flow pattern remains active with an approaching maturing trof that will develop into an upper lvl low pressure center into Monday will track over locations just north of the CWA. Temperatures on Sunday will still be warmer than climatological normals for this time of the year: high temperatures across northern Arkansas will vary from the mid 50's to low 60's, then into central and southern Arkansas between the upper 50's to mid 60's.
(This evening through Monday night) Upper level trough continues to swing across Kansas leaving a quick push of cold air in it's wake. The cold front is moving south about 35 mph will likely be through most of the Panhandles by 6 pm. Moving to overnight, light and variable winds with a gradual shift to the southwest tomorrow afternoon as some warmer air tries to briefly squeak into the area under the continued dominate northwest flow pattern. A secondary system with a positive tilt will push through Kansas Monday night with another weak cold front trailing, and that will shift winds out of the north again Monday night.
1107 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023 Reinforcing cold front brings rain through tonight. Last bit of showers from overnight are departing along the higher terrain this morning and now we await the next round of showers encroaching for the afternoon. Expect wind gusts of 15-25 mph across the lowlands, with 25-35 mph in the mountains. West southwest flow aloft brings warmer temperatures this afternoon, generally around 60 degrees lowlands, ranging into the upper 40s northeast mountains.
1118 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023 (Rest of Today) Lingering cloud cover from yesterdays cold front kept us insulated and warm last night with morning lows only in the 50s. Current temps are only a few degrees warmer in the mid 50s. Highs are only forecast to reach the low 60s before sunset.
A dry afternoon is in store for the region with temperatures in the lower 50s to mid 60s. Made some adjustments to the high temperatures for this afternoon.
Morning model guidance continue to show a upper-level trough axis across east Texas make its way east towards central Mississippi. The ongoing cloud cover combined with limited sunshine will help keep afternoon temperatures in the low 60s. High temperatures will reach into the low to upper 60s and low temperatures overnight will drop into the low to upper 40s.
258 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023 A cold front will move through the region this afternoon.
This feature encroaches from the southwest Monday morning, and promotes rain showers in the lower elevations and wintry precipitation in the mountains by the afternoon/evening timeframe. Gusts of 15-25 mph across the lowlands, with 25-35 mph in the mountains could be observed.
Upper level trough was positioned over the central U. which has kept the low clouds in place along with bringing some earlier rainfall. An upper level ridge in the western U. Northwest flow aloft will become weak as the ridge moves into the area.
917 AM PST Sun Dec 3 2023 Building high pressure will lead to warming through the first half of the week. A trough will move inland across the Pacific Northwest late week, leading to winds turning back onshore in Southern California, as well as cooler conditions and a brief rebuilding of the marine layer. Warming continues today as a ridge of high pressure builds over the western United States. Highs look to top out near to slightly-above seasonal averages, reaching the upper-60s to low-70s across the coast, valleys and lower deserts, the 50s in the mountains and low-60s in the High Desert. A flat ridge over the far EastPac was slowly expanding eastward over SoCal today.
1155 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023 - Light snow, drizzle, and freezing drizzle continue through this morning, mainly east of I-35 and into western WI. - Temperatures remain seasonal to open this week but much warmer than normal temperatures are expected the latter half of the work week. This is causing overcast, low stratus and freezing drizzle to occur across southeastern MN. Some clearing across western MN is expected tonight, which should allow lows to sink into the lower 20s. Areas east will be warmer in the mid to upper 20s.
A cold front will sweep this moisture offshore tonight.
A warm front extends from central Washington State south and east towards southern Idaho early this afternoon. Breezy winds are anticipated to develop in those areas which may help to warm the temperatures above freezing therefore allowing for ground temps to moderate a bit. With low temperatures near freezing, black ice formation could occur. Another piece to the forecast tonight will be the 20 to 40 percent chance for drizzle or freezing drizzle across northwest Montana.
A weak disturbance is expected to move across the Texas Panhandle tonight with a weak cold front expected to arrive behind this disturbance by Monday morning. While this is going to be little more than a brief northerly wind shift, temperatures may be closer to freezing north of the Pecos while slightly warmer temperatures remain to the south in the upper 30s and low 40s. Another large trough will be approaching the Central Rockies by Monday afternoon and in response to lee troughing, southerly winds quickly develop across the region.
1249 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge off the west coast and a deep and broad trough across the plains. This trough moves through the area today and remains through 00z Mon. Have this reflected in the pops forecast already with the highest pops in the south.
To the east where areas of fog and low clouds persist on a light south wind, temperatures have only warmed into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. Applying this notion to the current forecast, without a wind shift, one strong enough to scour out the fog and low clouds, the low level moisture currently in place sticks around, and the fog and low clouds stick around.
1015 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023 Rain ends late this morning as a cold front pushes across, with breezy conditions this afternoon.
1025 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023 A cold front will move through the region this afternoon.
252 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023 (This afternoon through Monday) Surface analysis shows a pre-frontal trough across far southeast GA this afternoon with a cold front across northern portions of the state. A secondary dry cold front is currently cross the Mississippi River. The secondary front will also bring much drier and cooler airmass to the area.
(18Z TAFS) VFR conditions have developed across the area as a cold front sweeps east. BB/03 (Now through Monday) Drier and cooler conditions will return as the cold front moves through the area. Rain has cleared as the cold front slowly pushes east. A cooler and drier airmass will move into the area behind the front this afternoon and evening.