Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Tonight) A cold front currently stretching from NE to SW from Michigan to Oklahoma is prompting continual high cirrus clouds over much of the area. With the cold front slatted to continue moving east overnight, clouds are expected to linger which should help to keep morning lows in the low to mid 60s, with elevated areas potentially getting into the high 50s.
709 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Showers will continue to move west and along the Mississippi River ahead of a cold front. Tomorrow, the cold front will push through the area and bring more widespread showers and a few storms throughout the region. Behind the cold front, highs for the weekend are expected to be in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
533 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Cloud cover is increasing today, but we've still warmed into the low to mid 80s in many places. Cloud cover will remain in place ahead of the showers and should keep temperatures warmer overnight, which will inhibit fog development. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler tomorrow as showers push east throughout the day.
Warm and dry conditions will continue for the remainder of the week as high pressure builds over the Southwest. As the upper-level trough moves eastward and high pressure builds over the region, pleasant weather will remain in the forecast today and through the remainder of the week.
Evening analysis shows the trough progressing east, breaking down the ridge. As the trough and front moves into the area, ascent and convergence increases. With deeper moisture building back in from the west, clouds and increase rain chances will build into the area ahead of a cold front. Drier air to the east will help better radiational cooling to occur, keeping temperatures in the low/mid 60s in the east.
612 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 (Tonight) A trough extending from the northern Plains down into the Four Corners will shift eastward tonight, starting to push out the high pressure anchored along the Mid Atlantic that has kept us warm and dry today. With this, we will continue to see cloud cover increase tonight, keeping overnight lows a tad warmer that last night. Look for temps to only reach the low/mid 60s with a few cool spots reaching the upper 50s.
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 718 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The low levels look to remain dry and ceiling free through this evening and most of tonight, despite the light southerly flow. A cold front over the western Great Lake early this evening will very slowly track eastward tonight and Thursday morning. Any letup in the showers during the afternoon could allow cigs to rise back into VFR before a higher confidence in MVFR cigs return for the evening hours as the low level convergence with the cold front tracks through. Benign weather persists through early tonight, with attention toward the ongoing area of showers upstream fixated within a lead zone of organized forced ascent featured along a slowly advancing cold frontal boundary tied to modest height falls.
Near to below average lows are forecast for tonight, with about half of the forecast area potentially waking up to temperatures cooler than 50 degrees by sunrise tomorrow morning.
344 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The axis of the long wave trough which moved over the forecast area last night had pushed east of the Continental Divide around midday. That said, freezing conditions in the upper Colorado River Basin and the Four Corners region look very marginal. Dry northwest flow settles over the region on Thursday and continues Thursday night as a ridge builds along the West Coast. A ridge of high pressure built over the Western U.
733 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 A ridge will extend down the east coast of the US from high pressure centered off the northeast US coast. Circulation around this high will continue the onshore flow pattern. Weak troughs over the coastal waters will result in a few bands of showers developing over the waters Tonight, along with gusty winds at the coast.
The rain will be accompanied by cooler temperatures and maybe a rumble of thunder. A strong cold front will bring even cooler weather Friday then chilly temperatures for the weekend.
Under the increasing influence of a ridge of high pressure building in from the Pacific, mostly clear skies and quiet weather will prevail as afternoon highs see a warming trend through the weekend.
Increasing clouds today ahead of a low pressure system across the Central CONUS. Discussion: High level clouds continue to increase from west to east across the region within broad upper-level southwest flow ahead of longwave troughing across the Great Plains. With upper-level ridging today across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians, above normal temperatures will continue with afternoon max temperatures a few degrees cooler than the past couple of days because of the added high clouds. Most areas are expected to remain dry with limited moisture ahead of this approaching cold front. Much cooler temperatures through the weekend followed by a gradual warming trend. Discussion: A deepening trough over the eastern U. will push a cold front across the forecast area Friday into Friday night. Behind the front, much cooler air will filter into the region through the weekend.
as a closed upper level low strengthens and moves across southern Ontario Canada before eventually moving east/northwestward as this afternoon through Friday afternoon progresses. Drier air will slowly work in from northwest behind a surface cold frontal passage that is quickly expected to moves across mid state region late tonight, with showers chances continuing for locations eastward through remaining morning hours on Friday. As for temperatures, high temperatures today will be slightly cooler than those experienced yesterday, but still several degrees above seasonal normal values, ranging mid 70s to mid 80s. With above mentioned surface frontal passage late tonight, look for some slightly cooler air to work into our area from western contiguous U.
351 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Dry high pressure and upper ridging remain firmly in place today. Then, the pattern breaks down on Friday as a trough sets up over the eastern CONUS.
Updated Aviation Dry and tranquil conditions will prevail the next several days as high pressure builds into the region. The response across the forecast area still appears to be towards the linkage of high pressure centers such that H5 heights steadily build towards 588dm (above the 90th percentile of climatology) by tomorrow morning. A weakening trough west of central Baja with a series of low amplitude waves embedded in the subtropical jet will enter the region over the weekend helping partially erode the stronger ridging aloft.
As of early this morning, a nearly stacked low pressure system was located over southeast Manitoba/southwest Ontario. So like previous shifts, have kept winds on the lower side of NBM guidance (more toward NBMexp).
Today a slow moving cold front has gradually sagged into the area and gradually shifted light winds to the northwest with its passage. Cooler temperatures lag behind the todays frontal passage with temperatures Thursday remaining above normal in the mid to upper 70s for most. By Thursday evening attention turns to troughing over central Canada starting to dig south toward the Central Plains. Temperatures will warm on Friday, but will remain cool as cold air advection increases as the trough digs south. As another surface cold front pushes through, significantly cooler, drier air is expected to move into the area overnight into Friday. Low temperatures are expected to decrease at least 10 degrees from Thursday night to the low 40s.
124 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Dry high pressure and upper ridging remain firmly in place through tomorrow. Then, the pattern breaks down on Friday as a trough sets up over the eastern CONUS.
The axis of a high pressure ridge is starting to center itself just off the Pacific coast, as seen on tonight's satellite imagery showing clear conditions across much of the region.
- Cooler temperatures as we approach the weekend, with highs in the 50s this weekend. A few drops could be squeezed out of the low stratus deck in central Minnesota, but we should remain dry across the entire area with no measurable rainfall for the rest of today. A compact trough will slowly sink southwards towards the area, with the axis finally arriving with enhanced mid- level forcing by midday Friday. Right now, the setup would favor the heaviest rain from eastern Minnesota to western Wisconsin as a PV anomaly and falling heights focus on the eastern side of the trough in western Minnesota to western Wisconsin, with good agreement between deterministic models as to where this heavier axis of rainfall ends up.
A break in the precipitation is expected Thursday night and into Friday morning before deep upper troughing moves in and 850 mb temps crash over Lake Michigan.
1239 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 High pressure will prevail through Thursday.
Winds will remain light with the surface ridging tonight. 08 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Thursday) High pressure will move to the northeast over the Appalachians today and tonight as a deep trough develops over the plains and slowly moves eastward. As the high pressure moves further east tonight, low and mid level flow will transition out of the south with moisture increasing over the area. Clouds will increase through the morning and early afternoon in response, and high temperatures Thursday afternoon will be few degrees cooler than today.
Slightly cooler air is sliding in behind it, but the moisture remains and is leading to a layer of low clouds developing across the Permian Basin and portions of SE NM. Average highs for early October are in the low 80s and that's where highs will mainly end up. Clouds and showers may keep areas around Big Bend and Presidio County a touch cooler as the front stalls across the region for the afternoon. Friday ends up a shade cooler than today. Clouds keep Big Bend on the cooler side where highs "only" look to reach into the upper 80s.
(Today through Friday) Upper level troughing dominates much of the CONUS this morning, with a closed low anchored near Hudson Bay and upper level ridging along both the West and East Coasts. A secondary low is centered just north of MN with a cold front through the Dakotas and northern Rockies. Highs today will be in the 80s, with lows tonight in the low to mid 60s. Cooler begins arriving tomorrow, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Showers are filling in along and ahead of surface cold front with a strip of likely POPs across the northwest zones moving east overnight with enough mid level instability for isolated thunder. Relatively narrow band of showers, about 50-70 miles wide, is expected to come together tonight from Chicago to Holland/GRR to Mt Pleasant/Alma as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. This is also in response to FGEN forcing and upper level divergence within the entrance region of 110 kt upper level jet streak on east side of approaching longwave trough. 5" is progged just ahead of the cold front.
Freezing temperatures are possible for portions of the area. A cold front with gusty northerly winds is expected on Friday with highs mostly in the 50s. A big upper trough extends from Canada south towards Arizona. North to northwest winds are across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas behind the cold front. Northerly surface winds will move across the area on Thursday as the upper trough moves slightly eastward. An upper low will move southeastward out of Canada within the main upper trough on Friday. This will result in another cold front pushing through Nebraska and Kansas on Friday as the upper trough moves to the east.
Warmer and drier conditions and light winds under a building ridge of high pressure will persist through the weekend.
Warm and dry conditions will continue for the remainder of the week as high pressure builds over the Southwest. As the upper-level trough moves eastward and high pressure builds over the region, pleasant weather will remain in the forecast today and through the remainder of the week. Morning lows will be freezing to near freezing for elevations above 6500 Thursday morning with a few degrees of warmth being added each day into the weekend across the area.
1100 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The axis of the long wave trough which moved over the forecast area last night had pushed east of the Continental Divide around midday. That said, freezing conditions in the upper Colorado River Basin and the Four Corners region look very marginal. Dry northwest flow settles over the region on Thursday and continues Thursday night as a ridge builds along the West Coast. A ridge of high pressure built over the Western U. Dry conditions will likely keep overnight lows on the cool side of climatology with elevated basins and valleys hovering around the freezing mark and even cooler in cold spots like the Gunnison Basin.
246 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Cooler, more fall like weather is here thanks to a large trof aloft that is swinging through the region the next few days. With this trof comes an attendant sfc cold front that will start moving through the area today. Friday things will clear out and dry out as the upper trof axis swings through and the cold front is pushed out. Highs will be in the lower 70s with overnight lows in the 40s.
1043 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 (Tonight) A cold front currently stretching from NE to SW from Michigan to Oklahoma is prompting continual high cirrus clouds over much of the area. With the cold front slatted to continue moving east overnight, clouds are expected to linger which should help to keep morning lows in the low to mid 60s, with elevated areas potentially getting into the high 50s.
Riding along the leading edge of the upper trough is a potent cold front.
1126 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Aviation Section Updated Breezy conditions will continue today as a cold front pushes through the area. Expect cooler temperatures to linger across the area through Friday morning, with many areas across the plains waking up to some frost on Friday morning. Warmer temperatures will return to the area over the weekend, along with dry conditions. Current radar and surface observations show a cold front making its way across the plains, kicking up a few light rain showers as it does so. Behind the front, temperatures will drop a few degrees from the low to mid 60s to the mid 50s. High pressure will build in for Thursday, which should help clear out skies and reduce the winds, but it will make for a chilly night across the plains, possibly resulting in some areas of frost.
Subsidence behind a departing trough axis has left most of the region under partly cloudy skies with temperatures near normal values for this time of year. There's a bit more cloud cover across the high country, but otherwise there's not much to talk about. Weak northwest flow aloft is expected to continue into tomorrow as ridging gradually tries to build to our west, while the main longwave trough axis hangs out to our east. Dry conditions will continue through the day with highs a couple of degrees cooler than today. In the post- frontal environment, expect highs on Friday to be considerably cooler, with an increasing potential for many if not all of our lower elevations to remain below 60 degrees.
Late tonight and Friday will be dry underneath rising heights associated with ridge building from the west. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal through Friday, regardless of tonight's lows.
The assocd long wv trof, dropping to the SE, wl bring a secondary CDFNT thru the FA followed by the main push of much cooler and drier air into the region.
The main cold front arrives to our north overnight, moving into northern South-Central Texas early Thursday morning.
1220 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (This evening through Thursday) The cold front is shown well both by surface observations and radar. The cold front will surge southward after sunset and will help to push convection to our south and east with most convection in the FA ending around/shortly after midnight. Clouds will clear from northwest to southeast tomorrow as the axis of the upper trough pushes east of the FA.
High pressure remains in place over Arizona today, with weak upper-level low off the California Baja coast. Northeast/east winds will also continue as a strong longwave trough over central US continues to have some influence. Thus, some locally gusty conditions can be expected downwind of the high terrain.
Surface cold front eventually crosses the region Friday morning bringing an end to organized widespread shower chances.
1054 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 At the beginning of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis displays the CWA underneath the base of a positively tilted trough which has its axis just to the west of the CWA allowing for a southwesterly flow aloft.
The large scale trough axis will begin to shift east across eastern Oklahoma this morning, which will allow our first frontal boundary to push through the region throughout the day today. Behind the front, a drier airmass will filter into the region bringing clearing skies and slightly cooler temperatures, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s this afternoon, along with some gusty northerly winds.
(Today) The overall wx pattern will finally begin to alter later today, as both high pressure at the sfc/upper ridge pattern layered across the NE/middle Atlantic Basins continues to drift eastward. In addition, a cold front located from the Great Lakes SW into the Midwest/southern Plains will also continue to move east closer to the SE region. Ahead of the front, cloud cover continues to spread into the area from the WSW, as a broad upper trough axis amplifies over the Plains states/Midwest. Latest model suites are also showing a pre-frontal trough axis over the Mid South/lower MS Valley areas slowly moving east towards the mid TN Valley. With the increase in cloud cover/oncoming rainfall, temps this afternoon look to trend a a few degrees cooler compared to the last several days, with highs mainly in the lower/mid 80s.
1145 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Lowering ceilings and increased shower coverage can be expected on Thursday as a disturbance lifts into the region along an encroaching cold front. Benign weather persists through early tonight, with attention toward the ongoing area of showers upstream fixated within a lead zone of organized forced ascent featured along a slowly advancing cold frontal boundary tied to modest height falls. Attendant cold front arrives Friday, offering perhaps a secondary albeit more modest opportunity for showers within and immediately behind the advancing frontal slope. High amplitude troughing then takes residence throughout the weekend period. Projected highs both days in the lower 50s.
Increased cloud coverage expected today with increasing moisture advection in southwesterly flow ahead of an upper trough dropping south towards the western Great Lakes. Precipitation will overspread the region from west to east overnight as the mentioned trough and associated sfc front approach the region. Under the low probability scenario (less than 10% chance likelihood) that weak instability develops along with strong shear, somewhat unidirectional flow to that boundary, and above average PWATs. Latest guidance points to a Friday night frontal passage, followed by much cooler temperatures, scattered showers, and breezy conditions as the upper trough deepens over the northeast US.
117 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 A ridge will extend down the east coast of the US from high pressure centered off the northeast US coast. Circulation around this high will continue the onshore flow pattern. Weak troughs over the coastal waters will result in a few bands of showers developing over the waters Tonight, along with gusty winds at the coast.
102 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (Through Thursday) An upper level ridge to our west and a upper level low over the western Atlantic with high pressure at the surface will continue the east/northeast flow pattern at the surface and midlevels through Thursday. Highs for tomorrow will be in the upper 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s. (Thursday night through Friday night) Upper ridging will continue briefly through Thursday evening before a longwave upper trough moves over the area Friday morning. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place for the day Friday resulting in calm conditions similar to the days prior with scattered cloud cover and temperatures in the mid to upper 80s areawide.
A cold front is expected this afternoon with strong NW winds which will approach high wind warning criteria but will likely stay below it. Look for below freezing temperatures in most areas for the first time this fall. Lows Friday morning will be from the lower 20s to lower 30s. Some areas mainly in the north and east could see below freezing temperatures again Friday night.
Friday morning will be chilly with near freezing temperatures along the Divide.
355 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 High pressure prevails through Friday ahead of an approaching cold front.
344 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Today and Tonight: Although temperatures will continue to be warmer than normal through the period, cooler temperatures and increased rain chances are expected today and tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a weak center of low pressure over the ArkLaTex ahead of the cold front that stretched from the mid Mississippi river valley back across the Ozarks and into central Texas. Regional radars had vigorous convection over east Texas and western Louisiana associated with the center of low pressure. Despite the cold front moving through the CWA tonight, morning lows will range from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s south. Our normal lows run in the low to mid 50s. /22/ Friday: By Friday morning, the cold front will begin pushing across the area, bringing noticeably drier air with a persistent northerly breeze.
(Today and tonight) A more typical fall day awaits today on the heels of a vigorous trough that dealt several severe storms to the region yesterday. Surface ridging will wedge itself through the South Plains today under stable northwest flow and in the process rid us of any lingering low clouds early this morning. NBM's highs look a bit optimistic today, particularly in those areas that saw heavy rain recently, so opted for the cooler CONSSHORT values. Surface ridging remains parked over the region tonight allowing light winds and ample radiational cooling under crystal clear skies.
1154 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Key Messages: - A Freeze Watch will likely be issued tonight for the potential for freezing temperatures Friday night. A weak cold front moving south through MT this afternoon will drift through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight with a fresh batch of Pacific high pressure building into the region Thursday. The temperature forecast Thursday night leans on the faster RAP model for lows in the lower 30s to around 40. The strong CAA and resulting steep low level lapse rates make subfreezing temperatures Friday morning unlikely. Interest turns toward the progress and arrival of a major cold front. The associated 1034mb high pressure is across AK/NW territory this afternoon.
Cold front passage #1: bringing showers and thunderstorms to central and southeastern Illinois through the day today 2. Cold front passage #2: bringing colder, more fall like temperatures to the CWA -------------------[Discussion]------------------- Currently, the cold front is stationed just west of Peoria.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms today as a cold front moves through this morning and rain tapers off by the afternoon.
- Rain and snow showers are possible tonight into tomorrow along and behind a cold front.
Clear skies tonight will help overnight lows get down into the low 50s for most of the area.
A stronger, 100 kt jet streak will drive down into South Dakota tonight as the main upper low moves into west central MN.
Our long-awaited autumn cold front will arrive after peak heating, and Friday evening temperatures will be noticeably cooler, particularly across North Texas.