Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
300 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 A couple of mid and upper-level disturbances will move east across NC this afternoon and evening, while high pressure will otherwise extend across the state through Thursday. Another short wave trough is expected to cross the region Wednesday. Expect cloud coverage for most of the day with highs in the low 70s, and lows hovering around 50.
347 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Discussion/Marine -- Cold air will continue to dominate into Thursday -- A large negatively tilted upper level low situated over Ontario will continue to dominate the weather pattern through today into tomorrow. That low will weaken and retrograde to the north as a weak ridge is pushed downstream out ahead of another upper level low moves into the upper midwest. This will allow for 850 mb temperatures to remain between 0C to -8C keeping freezing overnight lows across the region Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
Tonight and Wednesday Synopsis: The latest RAP analysis shows a large upper level low spinning across the central and eastern Great Lakes early this afternoon. This low will slowly drift off to the north over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, high pressure stretching from Hudson Bay to the northern Mississippi Valley will become centered over the western Great Lakes tonight and the central Great Lakes on Wednesday. Patchy ground fog is possible late tonight as high pressure arrives and winds decouple. Central and north-central WI appear to have the highest potential.
Wednesday Night-Thursday Night This morning's upper air data revealed the low-level frontal boundary associated with the leading edge of the cooler air /anchored over southern Hudsons Bay/, extending from Chicago to Bismark.
835 PM PDT Tue Apr 25 2023 A building ridge over the West Coast this week will bring warmer days and a shallower marine layer.
Convective activity will be limited as there is no warm front or upper level feature, so kept rain chances in the 25-30 percent range for areas south of I-20. Minimal rain chances overnight, but there is an elevated warm front lifting northward, so there could be some showers along this boundary. A fairly stout short wave trof will eject into the Southern Plains states on Thursday.
As a result of this change, the surface cold front will bring a distinct northwest to northerly wind shift across all of western Montana. A thermal low will deepen in the Snake River Plain ahead of the surface cold front as it moves into southwest Montana and Lemhi County Thursday afternoon.
Winds will be light today, but overall flow will shift off to the south, bringing in some warmer temperatures than yesterday. Forecast highs are expected to be in the lower to middle 50s. The additional cloud cover and warmer air will make for a much warmer night than the past couple, with low temperatures in the middle to upper 30s.
At the surface, weak surface ridging was beginning to lose its influence to a stronger pressure gradient building in from the northeast as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. This is typically a cooler regime and in this case, with 1000-850mb heights slightly lower, we'll probably see similar to slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow compared to today. Regardless, the increased cloud cover will help keep temperatures cooler than normal with highs generally in the lower 60s across our south and the middle to upper 60s across our north.
Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday, with scattered shower and thunderstorm activity expected as a warm front lifts northward.
A weak trough dropping through the region has kept a narrow axis of clouds around 4-6kft going through the night but is transient, dropping slowly southward. Temperatures will quickly rebound this morning back up to afternoon highs in the low 50s. Just a couple degrees warmer than the previous few days as we are still influenced by the departing stacked low no centered over the Quebec/Ontario border. The ridge will be enhanced by a southern stream wave tracking through the south Plains causing the ridge to amplify a bit more over the region.
1025 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley today, providing dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
417 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 (Issued 417 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023) Today through Thursday: High pressure sitting overhead is trapping moisture around 6000 ft so we are getting a lot of cloud cover over eastern WI early this morning. The lake breeze will keep temps cooler by the lake today, but inland temps will be in the lower to mid 50s. It will be another chilly night thanks to dry air, clear skies and high pressure over the region. Weak low pressure tracking across northern MN and Lake Superior will help usher warmer air into southern WI on steady southerly winds Thursday. The lake breeze should be delayed until the afternoon, so they have a good chance of jumping into the lower 60s before it arrives.
(Today through Thursday) A broad upper level low has been and will continue to be anchored over Canada just north of the Great Lakes. A much weaker upper low currently situated just southeast of the 4-Corners is tracking east- southeastward as the broad low finally lifts northeast. Likely to see a bump in daytime highs as weak ridging develops just ahead of the approaching low. Weak boundary associated with the upper low, which will be opening up and absorbed by the broad trough extending over the southeastern US from Canada, will move through the CWA but not provide appreciable cooling.
625 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Current observations show a cold pool enhanced cold front is moving into southeastern New Mexico with very gusty winds along the leading edge of the front. Winds backing around from the west will downslope off the higher terrain causing a quick rebound in temps with highs tomorrow actually being similar to today despite the cool morning.
Low pressure is organizing in Northwest Texas early this morning while an upper low is positioned to the northwest in New Mexico. The narrow Midwest ridging will steer the low northeastward through the Quad State tomorrow afternoon and evening, with shower chances peaking in the categorical range.
Many Valley locations will reach the low 90s the next several days. Other than a few high clouds cresting the eastern Pacific ridge, skies are clear across interior NorCal early this morning.
High pressure building in from the west will keep temperatures trending warmer through the weekend.
1005 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Issued at 10:04 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 After starting the morning in the mid/upper 30s across central KY the sunshine has helped to warm temperatures into the low 50s. Cold front was draped across south central KY with the only a notable NE wind along and north of the front. No changes to the A very weak east-west cold front will slowly slip southward across Kentucky today, accompanied by partly cloudy skies and light breezes from the north and northeast.
456 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2023 There is currently a low pressure located over the CO/NM state line, which is expected to continue tracking southeastward today. In the wake of the low pressure northeasterly flow and residual moisture have kept snow showers going most of the evening. This will result in slightly warmer highs compared to yesterday. Tomorrow attention turns to a potent trough that will drop out of southern Canada. A sharp cold front will accompany this system. Showers and storms will develop along and behind the cold front, which does not move in from Wyoming until around sunset. The last several model runs have nudged this trough further west as it drops over eastern Utah and western Colorado.
Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected through Thursday.
Associated U/L trough will also move across the region which will enhance large scale ascent. This is a rather unique set-up for the forecast area with numerous severe weather parameters coming together on the high end of the scale. Thursday should see a bit warmer mid-level temperatures (but still on the cold side -10 to -12C) as an U/L ridge builds over the peninsula in advance of a strong U/L disturbance and associated developing area of low pressure over the Mississippi Valley.
733 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Aviation -- Cold air will continue to dominate into Thursday -- A large negatively tilted upper level low situated over Ontario will continue to dominate the weather pattern through today into tomorrow. That low will weaken and retrograde to the north as a weak ridge is pushed downstream out ahead of another upper level low moves into the upper midwest. This will allow for 850 mb temperatures to remain between 0C to -8C keeping freezing overnight lows across the region Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
635 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley today, providing dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
An upper ridge builds further offshore on Thursday.
306 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Upper air analysis shows a well-defined upper low centered across the NM/CO border. The central/southern Plains upper low will continue to drift eastward, no longer affecting the CWA. Otherwise, it will be a quiet and much warmer day today. This will bring a quick change in the conditions, as a strong cold front crosses the area. Most models suggest a range of 1-4 inches of snow Thursday night, with the greater amounts across the higher elevations.
520 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley today, providing dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
1039 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Update We have hoisted another Freeze Warning for tonight with temps expected to drop below freezing once again. We are thinking that temps should be 2-4 degrees warmer tonight. -- Cold air will continue to dominate into Thursday -- A large negatively tilted upper level low situated over Ontario will continue to dominate the weather pattern through today into tomorrow. That low will weaken and retrograde to the north as a weak ridge is pushed downstream out ahead of another upper level low moves into the upper midwest. This will allow for 850 mb temperatures to remain between 0C to -8C keeping freezing overnight lows across the region Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
Upper level low currently spinning over New Mexico is forecast to move across the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southward into the northern Big Country during the mid to late afternoon hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the warm sector to the east of the dry line and south of the cold front. Slight cooler temperatures are expected in the Big Country with the passage of the cold front.
The 12Z sounding revealed plenty of low level moisture in the lower boundary layer and strong inversion around 740 to 760 MB. Breezes will freshen from the southeast to south tomorrow as high pressure in the western Atlantic builds into the Florida Peninsula.
By 5 PM CDT, showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms should start popping at/near Mobridge along the cold front/sfc trof moving in from the northwest. The higher coverage of activity will likely occur north and east of the CWA where mid level jet energy will play more of a roll. All this energy aloft will eventually result in a deep eastern upper CONUS trof, but somewhat delayed from previous forecasts.
A very weak east-west cold front will slowly slip southward across Kentucky today, accompanied by partly cloudy skies and light breezes from the north and northeast.
640 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 A couple of mid and upper-level disturbances will move east across NC this afternoon and evening, while high pressure will otherwise extend across the state through Thursday. A closed mid/upper level low over the Southern Rockies will advance eastward into the Southern US Plains by Thursday morning. Downstairs, weak high pressure will remain in place. The closed low over the Southern Plains is forecast to open up as it lifts north into the Mid-MS Valley Thursday night. Rain chances look quite low as available forcing and instability across central NC remain weak, with low-amplitude s/w ridging through the region. Under mostly cloudy skies, highs in the lower 70s north to mid 70s south.
Ahead of the boundaries, dewpoints range from the mid 50s across the Concho Valley to the lower 60s across the Heartland, with SPC CAPEs 2000-3000.
Tonight and Thursday Synopsis: The latest RAP analysis and satellite imagery show high pressure centered across the region early this afternoon. Sky/Precip: Thermal troughing remains more pronounced over eastern WI early this afternoon, and combined with steep low level lapse rates, contributed to a scattered to broken convective cloud field. These clouds will likely dissipate later this afternoon or this evening as warmer low level air surges in from the west. The showers will diminish on Thursday morning as the low level jet weakens and lifts off to the northeast. Temps: Warmer temps are expected over the next 24 hours thanks to strengthening southerly winds.
A few storms have developed across northwest Florida as of 18z as the warm front lifts north out of the Gulf and across the panhandle. Expect an increasing trend in convective coverage throughout the afternoon with the scattered storms predominantly impacting northwest Florida (north of the beaches) first before sliding into south-central Alabama as the warm front lifts north.
(The rest of this afternoon ) Main area of rain associated with an upper low currently over the TX panhandle will continue pushing through the forecast area this afternoon. Mid level dry slot will limit precip chances this evening, but additional activity is expected to develop overnight as the upper low moves east through western and central OK overnight. Given the track of the upper low, will keep highest pops across NE OK and NW AR overnight. (Tonight through Wednesday) The aforementioned upper low will continue moving east with precip chances ending by late afternoon across NW AR.
(The rest of today ) Band of rain and embedded storms ahead of an advancing upper low will move into eastern Oklahoma over the next couple hours and into western Arkansas by around mid-afternoon.
Thursday expect dry conditions with slightly warmer temperatures. A ridge of high pressure builds across the area from the northwest with skies clearing overnight. Thursday, the ridge is pushed north by a low moving out of the southwest. Expect clouds to spread back across from the south along with a warmer air mass bringing temperatures into the 60s. Showers, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm can be expected at the start of the period as a low pressure system lifts northeast through the area.
Warmer today with clear skies under a weak upper level ridge. This should allow temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70s in the lower valley. Main forecast issue will be with the upper level low passage to our north on Thursday. Satellite is showing a well defined low pressure system over British Columbia this morning.
343 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 An upper low will remain nearby through Thursday bringing another round of showers to the area.
The next system to impact the area will be a low pressure system moving in from the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex regions. Highs tomorrow will be a little bit warmer, reaching up to the mid 60s. Synoptically speaking, broad upper level troughing over the central and eastern CONUS will steadily consolidate and intensify into an anomalously deep closed upper level low centered over the Great Lakes and slowly pushing into the northeastern states through the period. Another closed low will slowly move onshore on the West Coast, with initially high-amplitude but steadily weakening upper level ridging over the Intermountain West into the Rockies during the period. High clouds will increase in coverage by the end of the period ahead of a low pressure system creeps closer to the region.
To the east of a warm front that is splayed out from north to south, generally along a line from near Ft Yates, ND to Bowdle, SD to Ft Thompson, SD, temperatures are warming into the 50s to mid 60s.
Temperatures are climbing into the low 80s with highs still expected in the low 80s (coast) to mid 80s (inland).
(This evening through Thursday) A strong, dynamic, positively tilted upper low currently moving SE through northern NM will become neutrally tilted and track east through the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma later this afternoon into the evening hours. As showers and storm activity winds down later this evening, another push of cooler air behind the exiting low to the east will result in cooler than normal overnight lows in the 30s and 40s with steady north winds around 10-20 MPH. As the upper low releases its grip on our area, we'll sees skies clear quickly west to east after sunrise tomorrow morning, with temperatures rebounding nicely back up into the 70s area wide.
1252 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 (Today through Thursday) A broad upper level low has been and will continue to be anchored over Canada just north of the Great Lakes. A much weaker upper low currently situated just southeast of the 4-Corners is tracking east- southeastward as the broad low finally lifts northeast. Likely to see a bump in daytime highs as weak ridging develops just ahead of the approaching low. Weak boundary associated with the upper low, which will be opening up and absorbed by the broad trough extending over the southeastern US from Canada, will move through the CWA but not provide appreciable cooling.
1159 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2023 There is currently a low pressure located over the CO/NM state line, which is expected to continue tracking southeastward today. In the wake of the low pressure northeasterly flow and residual moisture have kept snow showers going most of the evening. This will result in slightly warmer highs compared to yesterday. Tomorrow attention turns to a potent trough that will drop out of southern Canada. A sharp cold front will accompany this system. Showers and storms will develop along and behind the cold front, which does not move in from Wyoming until around sunset. The last several model runs have nudged this trough further west as it drops over eastern Utah and western Colorado.
Rain has kept temperatures cooler than forecast and have lowered hourly temperatures for the rest of the afternoon. Discussion: Quasi-zonal flow aloft over the region will begin to transition as low amplitude short wave ridging ahead of an approaching upper low will build over the region late today into tonight. Temperatures will be warmer north than south today given the precipitation coverage further south.
After sunset, there will be lingering showers around given the continued proximity of the H5 closed low. At the surface, high pressure builds in with a mix of sun and clouds.
1103 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Upper air analysis shows a well-defined upper low centered across the NM/CO border. The central/southern Plains upper low will continue to drift eastward, no longer affecting the CWA. Otherwise, it will be a quiet and much warmer day today. This will bring a quick change in the conditions, as a strong cold front crosses the area. Most models suggest a range of 1-4 inches of snow Thursday night, with the greater amounts across the higher elevations.
Chances may also be locally higher along the ridges with the aid of orographic influences. Daytime highs will remain around 10 degrees below climatological normals with a pesky upper low continuing to reinforce cooler air aloft in west- northwest flow. Showers, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm can be expected at the start of the period as a low pressure system lifts northeast through the area.
Western Montana and north central Idaho currently sits between high pressure to the west with a trough digging to the east into the Dakotas out of Canada. The highest probabilities of precipitation are expected along the Continental Divide, diminishing to the west. The higher terrain along the Continental Divide, above roughly 5000 feet, has a 60 to 70 percent chance of seeing at least an inch of snowfall but minimal impacts to passes such as Marias Pass are anticipated due to relatively warm road surfaces.
147 PM PDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Much warmer today across inland areas as high pressure strengthens across the western United States.
120 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Aviation We have hoisted another Freeze Warning for tonight with temps expected to drop below freezing once again. We are thinking that temps should be 2-4 degrees warmer tonight. -- Cold air will continue to dominate into Thursday -- A large negatively tilted upper level low situated over Ontario will continue to dominate the weather pattern through today into tomorrow. That low will weaken and retrograde to the north as a weak ridge is pushed downstream out ahead of another upper level low moves into the upper midwest. This will allow for 850 mb temperatures to remain between 0C to -8C keeping freezing overnight lows across the region Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
230 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 The upper level trough over Quebec will continue to weaken while an upper level ridge builds over the western CONUS. Also, the latest forecast soundings continue to show considerable dry air in the low and mid levels with low level moisture return rather slow with better chances of precipitation after 12z Thursday, especially along and south of I-70. Then as the low moves into the Ohio Valley Thursday night, the chance for rain will wind down. Highs on Thursday will depend on cloud cover and precipitation, but do expect warmer temperatures across portions of northeast Missouri and west central Illinois while areas to the south will be cooler due to clouds and rain.
Temperatures varied from the upper 50s in the more cloudy and showery areas like Manchester, to the lower 70s in the more sunny spots including Clarksville. A low pressure system currently over the Rockies will move out to the Plains, lifting a swath of deep moisture into Middle Tennessee Thursday morning. There will be some breaks in the rain, but additional clusters of showers and storms will develop through the rest of Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as the main low pressure system moves across the area. But, the weakening low pressure system will not provide enough focused forcing for any organized severe wx threat.
1234 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Current observations show a cold pool enhanced cold front is moving into southeastern New Mexico with very gusty winds along the leading edge of the front. Winds backing around from the west will downslope off the higher terrain causing a quick rebound in temps with highs tomorrow actually being similar to today despite the cool morning.
Latest meso-analysis from SPC shows 2000+ CAPES along and ahead of the boundary, with south winds and dewpoints up in the low/mid 60s.
340 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes tonight, providing dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Issued at 10:04 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 After starting the morning in the mid/upper 30s across central KY the sunshine has helped to warm temperatures into the low 50s. Cold front was draped across south central KY with the only a notable NE wind along and north of the front. No changes to the A very weak east-west cold front will slowly slip southward across Kentucky today, accompanied by partly cloudy skies and light breezes from the north and northeast.
310 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level low pressure moving eastward across the northern Texas panhandle region this afternoon. 10" to around 1" inch) will be possible for tonight-Thursday afternoon with the highest amounts affecting far southern Kansas counties.
(This evening through Thursday) The closed upper low heads slowly eastward across the Texas panhandle this evening and over Oklahoma tonight into tomorrow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening and overnight as the closed upper low moves slowly into western Oklahoma. However, dynamic cooling near the core of the upper low may allow for isolated strong to marginally severe storms to develop this evening and into the overnight hours over western Oklahoma.