Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 High pressure centered over the Upper Midwest will drift southeast into the Ohio Valley over the next 24 hours. The high pressure and dry air will continue to keep precip well outside of our forecast area through tonight. Guidance shows 850mb temperatures warming to 13-15C this afternoon, and with strong June sunshine, highs today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday in the 80-85 degree range. Meanwhile, a short wave trough will dip into the east-central Great Plains Saturday afternoon which will bring somewhat steeper mid level lapserates to western Missouri.
A wetter pattern will begin tomorrow as a cold front moves across the region.
This feature lies between general troughing across the southwestern CONUS and a pair of digging trofs across central CN through the eastern CONUS. Increased moisture content over the region has led to a few areas of convection this afternoon, the highest coverage of which is currently ongoing over the Black Hills. Coupled with linear forcing along an advancing backdoor cold front, convection should be concentrated within a relatively narrow, northeast-to- southeast moving corridor late tonight through early tomorrow. As relatively cooler temperatures overspread the area, buoyancy should become increasingly limited; however, it should remain sufficient for embedded thunderstorms within a broader shield of rain and showers tomorrow.
1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 High pressure will build into the region bringing cooler and drier conditions to the Mid-South today and most of the day Saturday.
What consensus there is is for isolated showers/thunder along modest convergence in the vicinity of the Caprock escarpment, perhaps with an orographic component, with strongest signal in the lower end of Palo Duro Canyon. The latter at this time seems the most likely as it also lines up better with potential upper support from an upper level short wave trough progged to across southeastern New Mexico to the western Panhandle later tonight. Saturday is expected to be precip-free as surface and low level flow back to the southwest in the wake of the departing upper level trough, which in turn shifts any low level convergence and convective focus to the east of the forecast area.
257 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 High pressure remains in place through Saturday.
210 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 High pressure will continue to build southeast into the area today. The high will then settle across the Ohio Valley tonight. On Saturday, the high will begin to move east of the region.
Prior to the Saturday thunderstorms, it will be hot with inland temperatures reaching the mid 90s and heat indices reaching the low 100s in areas.
331 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Summary:A cold front will be moving through the region over the weekend bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front is slowly moving in from the northwest and is currently over southern Ontario into far southeastern Manitoba. Additionally, areas along the North Shore will be cooler by the lake.
An upper level trough diving out of the high plains will push a cold front towards the area Saturday night. Chances for showers and storms will increase Saturday night, with the highest chances across far NE OK and NW AR starting after midnight.
East to southeasterly flow ahead of a trough moving north out of the Great Basin will maintain showers and embedded thunderstorms today and tonight. The eastern portion of Central/North- central Montana is still highlighted as the highest risk for flooding potential by WPC, which matches current trends well.
An inland moving seabreeze of the Gulf along with a southward sagging surface boundary along the Highway 84 corridor are expected to be the initial triggers. 6" at this time on the latest analysis), combining with a weak southward moving surface boundary along the Highway 84 corridor and a seabreeze developing along the coast at this time expected to move inland, initial formation of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be along the coast inland to areas south of I-65. High temperatures around seasonal norms are expected this afternoon and Saturday, with a mean upper trough in place along the East Coast limiting upper subsidence somewhat from an upper ridge over the Plains.
1251 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Currently have an upper low situated over New England with another upper circulation over the Great Basin. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure is located over the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Western Great Lakes region.
A cut-off low off the southern California coast will continue producing afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the area. As this low exits today, it will be replaced by another cut- off low Saturday. As has been the case for the last several days, this cut-off low will again produce afternoon showers and thunderstorms to the area, Saturday. Saturdays highs will be a tad warmer, but still in the upper 60s to mid 70s for most.
931 AM PDT Fri Jun 9 2023 A low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures, increased onshore flow, a deeper marine layer, and chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
151 PM PDT Fri Jun 9 2023 A low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures, increased onshore flow, a deeper marine layer, and chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
With one low pressure system lifting to the north and being absorbed into the jet, another system positions itself to slide eastward onto the California coast.
(Tonight) A cool evening for this time of year is in store as cooler air from the north continues to enter the region.
Much cooler and drippy conditions are expected across western Washington into the first half of Saturday.
The models are suggesting the focus, a cold front across the Dakotas, will be south of Interstate 80 Saturday night and if no storms form along the interstate tonight, this area could be shut out Saturday night. A push of cooler air is expected behind the front, which will be moving south through Nebraska during the day Saturday. The next system of interest is an upper low off the nrn CA coast.
This will help push the cold front currently near the international border down through the CWA during the night. There will be good mixing behind the cold front, but not confident enough to include in the grids at this point. However, temperatures will be quite a bit cooler than they have been recently, and the afternoon RH values should stay mostly above 30 percent. Conditions will be cool and quiet Saturday night with high pressure and temperatures dropping into the upper 40s in some areas.
Thus, confidence remains on the lower end on how the rest of the day progresses, though in general there is loose agreement for a decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity for the afternoon hours. Shear continues to be lacking on the nose of the ridge of high pressure aloft, further giving weight to not seeing severe weather today/tonight. Given the dreary weather and cooler air being brought in aloft, daytime highs in the lower to upper 70s are expected. Some semi-breezy winds on the backside of the front are also expected, though gusts should remain limited to the lower 30 mph range. The aforementioned trough axis will be swinging through during the evening and overnight hours, and as it exits to our south rainfall will be exiting our area as well.
Tomorrow we see sfc winds swap back to the south as the large upper level low over the NE begins to meander to the east, away from the eastern CONUS.
1118 AM PDT Fri Jun 9 2023 A cloudy an cooler mostly cloudy and cooler with afternoon temperatures in the 70s is expected. One area of concern is the Lower ID Panhandle.
the forecast area is caught in an elongated north to south upper ridge axis, in between low pressure off the coast of California and northeast portion of the country. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 50s to around 60. we'll be looking at isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the late morning through afternoon hours as slightly cooler air and a shift in the winds moves through. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 50s to around 60.
658 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Summary:A cold front will be moving through the region over the weekend bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front is slowly moving in from the northwest and is currently over southern Ontario into far southeastern Manitoba. Additionally, areas along the North Shore will be cooler by the lake.
1004 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Dry high pressure over the region tonight will move increasingly offshore over the weekend.
644 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 A cold front will slowly drop into the northern Great Lakes from Canada on Saturday. This high will however continue to dominate aviation conditions thru Saturday afternoon, with the associated dry low level airmass persisting through the period. Gradual pattern shift begins today as persistent east coast troughing finally drifts northeast into the Canadian maritimes. Despite this, a cooler night is again in store thanks to the resident dry airmass and mostly clear overnight skies with lows generally falling to around 50 outside the lakeshores/city of Detroit. Warming trend continues into Saturday as upper flow partially flattens allowing a piece of the warmer airmass over the Plains to fold into southern MI in advance of another approaching trough dropping out of northern Canada.
807 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 An upper low moves offshore tonight.
CMiller (Issued 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023) Tonight and Saturday: Quiet weather will continue as high pressure shifts over the Ohio River Valley region. Mid and high level moisture gradually increases Saturday as a cold front begins to advance our way from central Canada.
557 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Dry high pressure over the region tonight will move increasingly offshore over the weekend.
Additional chances through Saturday as a cold front passes.
620 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Cold front continues southward this evening, with thunderstorm activity along and ahead of the front. This will help push the cold front currently near the international border down through the CWA during the night. There will be good mixing behind the cold front, but not confident enough to include in the grids at this point. However, temperatures will be quite a bit cooler than they have been recently, and the afternoon RH values should stay mostly above 30 percent. Conditions will be cool and quiet Saturday night with high pressure and temperatures dropping into the upper 40s in some areas.
This pattern will likely continue through the afternoon and the early evening, as temperatures increase into the low to mid 90s. Throughout the day on Saturday, along the Red River continues to be the area with the highest potential for severe weather development.
724 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Dry high pressure over the region tonight will move increasingly offshore over the weekend.
626 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Dry conditions are in place today with high pressure dominating the region. With the cooler dewpoints, lows tonight will get into the low to mid 50s, with spots getting into the 40s in the east.
High pressure will remain in place going into the weekend, and will allow dry and warming weather to persist across eastern Kentucky. Haze is also expected to persist over the region through early Saturday morning, before finally dissipating, as high pressure begins to be displaced off to our east. An area of low pressure will begin moving our way Saturday night, and will lead to a gradual increase in cloud cover.
646 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 A wetter pattern will begin tomorrow as a cold front moves across the region.
732 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 High pressure remains in place through Saturday.
647 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 (Tonight) A cool evening for this time of year is in store as cooler air from the north continues to enter the region.
Marine layer depth has increased through the day today to about 3000-3500 feet in response to incoming upper level trough. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday with highs in the 60s near the coast and 70s further inland. This trough and associated upper low is currently spinning offshore the NorCal coastline. This upper low will continue to deepen and dig south as it moves inland, which will occur Saturday afternoon and evening. As this low moves in, will see some increased instability over the southern portions of Monterey and San Benito counties. Max temperatures inland will be slightly warmer as well with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.
739 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Issuing a quick update for the this evening's hourly temperatures in the river valleys similar to the trends from last evening, though the temperatures themselves should stay a few degrees warmer relative to the same hour from last evening. High pressure will remain in place going into the weekend, and will allow dry and warming weather to persist across eastern Kentucky. Haze is also expected to persist over the region through early Saturday morning, before finally dissipating, as high pressure begins to be displaced off to our east. An area of low pressure will begin moving our way Saturday night, and will lead to a gradual increase in cloud cover.
Currently - The Keys are located on the far northwestern periphery of an Atlantic ridge that reaches westward across Cuba. Meanwhile, deep layered troughing remains aligned over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough will shift slightly eastward. Expect overnight lows to settle near 80 with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Weak troughing smeared across Florida will settle into our area driving breezes variable for portions of our waters by sunup.
Expect the highest PoPs along I-10 into Southeast AL, ranging from 50-70 pct.
738 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Dry air and high pressure will remain in control of the pattern through late Saturday night.
Overnight conditions should be calm with lows in the low to mid 70s. High pressure over the Gulf stalled boundary across northern Florida will keep west to southwesterly flow in place through the period.
The low center was just northwest of Weiser, Idaho at 0230Z. The stronger storms are across southeast Oregon on the back side of the low pressure system. Showers across southeast Oregon may continue through 10z under the upper level trough. Southeast Oregon and the Lower Treasure valley have the highest chance (20% chance) for fog Saturday morning.
A cold front moving south later tonight may also help to produce some thunderstorms mainly across the north. The cold front should move south of our area by sunrise on Sunday. But temperatures will be back below average on Sunday behind the cold front.
(Rest of tonight) Modest (15-25 knot) northwest flow aloft will continue across the TN Valley overnight, in the wake of a broad longwave trough currently centered across northern New England. Although this will maintain dry conditions, the onset of elevated warm advection in the lower troposphere will result in development of an altocumulus cloud deck around or shortly before sunrise.
325 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 High pressure over the southern Appalachians this morning moves off the Carolina coast later today.
(Saturday through Sunday night) High pressure over the Atlantic extends its ridge westward toward the FL peninsula developing south-southwesterly flow. This southerly return flow will lift the stalled frontal boundary over north-central FL back northward as a warm front Saturday night. An increase in moisture and instability spreads northward into SE GA on Sunday as the warm front lifts north of the area.
A cold front extends from a low near James Bay southwest to near Grand Forks, ND. At the same time, low pressure developing ahead of a southward dropping short wave over the northern Plains will develop and ride northeast along the front. While the DGZ moistens up, the low levels do not saturate at the same time as the mid levels. They all do feature precipitation so we will maintain the high probabilities for showers but the qpf will be trended downward.
At the moment SPC has outlined all but the lower Atchafalaya Basin in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) Potential for severe storms, with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main concerns with the timing mainly between 2 pm and 10 pm. A decrease in thunderstorm chances will begin on Sunday as the disturbance moves off to the east and an upper level ridge will begin to build in from the southwest.
200 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 High pressure will continue to ridge south of the area as a stalled boundary meanders just to the north of the area through the period.
255 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Key Messages - Isolated convection this afternoon increases in coverage this evening and overnight as a cold front approaches from the north.
This pattern will likely continue through the afternoon and the early evening, as temperatures increase into the low to mid 90s.
119 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Dry high pressure will move offshore through the weekend. A warm front will lift into the area from the south on Sunday, bringing with it shower and thunderstorm chances.
127 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 High pressure will build into the region tonight into Saturday.
1237 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Summary:A cold front will be moving through the region over the weekend bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front is slowly moving in from the northwest and is currently over southern Ontario into far southeastern Manitoba. Additionally, areas along the North Shore will be cooler by the lake. There will be an upper level low pressure near the region with embedded disturbances circulating around its center.
101 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Dry conditions are in place today with high pressure dominating the region. With the cooler dewpoints, lows tonight will get into the low to mid 50s, with spots getting into the 40s in the east. An approaching trough for Sunday will warm things up a bit during the day Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 80s, but precip looks to hold off until after midnight.
903 PM PDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Low pressure, centered off the California Coast this evening, will be moving onshore this weekend, bringing cooler weather, more clouds and periods of showers.
- Cooler and drier weather arrives Sunday and persists for several days. Northeastern Kansas has seen mostly clear skies as storms have stayed to the west, increasing temperatures into the low to upper 80s from east to central Kansas respectively. Rain chances will increase again in the evening along a cold front moving out of south-central Nebraska and continue into Sunday AM.
Cooler today. A cold front continued to drop south through the Northland with showers occurring across parts of northwest Wisconsin. Some additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this morning into the afternoon as an upper trough moves through. Cooler temperatures are expected today with highs from the mid- sixties to lower seventies. Stronger off lake winds will keep lakeside areas even cooler with temperatures from the mid-fifties to lower sixties. Dry high pressure will move south tonight and remain Sunday keeping the region dry under mostly sunny skies. High temperatures will be from the mid-sixties to mid-seventies and be cooler around the lake.
(Tonight) Scattered convection has begun to diminish across the higher terrain of Wrn AR this evening, which has been largely driven by an outflow bndry extending from NE OK which has just moved through DEQ into Nrn Howard County. Did tweak the evening pops to reflect low chance pops across the Nrn tier of SW AR counties, with slight chance pops closer to the Highway 82 corridor of Srn AR, as well as between Ruston and Jena LA before dry conditions return areawide through at least daybreak. No changes were made to the min temps tonight, as warmer/more humid conditions are expected.
A cold front, currently across northern Montana and northern North Dakota will slide southward across the area later tonight and through the morning hours on Saturday. Cooler, or near seasonal average, temperatures can be expected on Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Saturday night will feature dry conditions with low temperatures dropping into the upper 40s, to the low 50s. By 12z Sunday, at the start of the period, a cold front will have already passed to the south of the CWA and high pressure will be in place along with a cooler and drier airmass. The upper-level pattern begins with an Omega block, aka upper-level ridge centered near the Front Range with two large upper lows on either side, and this should more or less persist through the middle of the week.
359 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 High pressure will build over the region through Sunday.
103 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 High pressure remains in place through today.
High pressure moves overhead tonight. Mostly clear skies and light winds allow lows to drop into the lower to middle 50s areawide. With southwesterly flow temperatures will be a little warmer on Saturday with high temperatures in the low to middle 80s. With southerly flow continuing into Saturday night lows will be warmer with lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s. A persistent trough in the upper atmosphere and associated moisture will lead to unsettled weather. Low pressure and a cold front will be arriving on Sunday as the flow aloft transitions from west to southwest.
200 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023 A slow moving cold front near Malta and Jordan early this morning will drift west into central Montana today.
118 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 (Rest of tonight) Modest (15-25 knot) northwest flow aloft will continue across the TN Valley overnight, in the wake of a broad longwave trough currently centered across northern New England. Although this will maintain dry conditions, the onset of elevated warm advection in the lower troposphere will result in development of an altocumulus cloud deck around or shortly before sunrise.
932 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 High pressure over the southern Appalachians this morning moves off the Carolina coast later today.
639 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 High pressure over the southern Appalachians this morning moves off the Carolina coast later today.
241 AM PDT Sat Jun 10 2023 A low pressure system will be moving onshore this weekend, bringing cooler weather, more clouds and periods of showers.
332 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Upper level troughing dominates much of the western CONUS with weak ridging to the southeast. Upper low off the CA coast slowly drifts east-northeast through the Great Basin with an increasingly moist southwest flow into the region. It will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler east of the Laramie Range this afternoon behind the backdoor front.
1028 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 High pressure will build over the region through Sunday.
High pressure will continue to ridge south of the area as a stalled boundary meanders just to the north of the area through the period.
An isolated tornado threat may also be possible mainly over far Southeast Oklahoma associated with the low level helicity/vorticity of the mid/upper level disturbance.
The upper low in east Oregon that provided the trigger and influx of moisture necessary for our recent stormy weather is being reabsorbed into the upper level flow and moving off to the north this morning. Douglas foothills, as the low swings inland and the axis of it tilts westwards, resulting in a southeast upper flow direction that could push some storms westwards.
An upper low moves closer to the region Sunday and will likely increase the shower and thunderstorm threat Sunday afternoon and evening.
Weakening upper level trough dissipating over Southern Vancouver Island this morning. Upper level ridge well offshore building into Southern British Columbia tonight into Sunday.
PoPs will return to the forecast on Sunday in advance of an approaching cold front from the plains. This activity will push E Sunday night with the passage of the cold front.
An upper ridge will bring warmer temperatures and mostly clear skies today.