Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
618 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 High pressure will remain firmly in place across the Great Lakes through the rest of the long holiday weekend. with daytime highs reaching the lower to mid 80s both today and Monday. Deep layer-ridging will dominate our weather through this period and well beyond. with just some thin high cirrus attendant to the southeastern US closed low working across western New York today into this evening. and then some spotty mid and high clouds pushing across the North Country tonight as a weak backdoor cold front drops across eastern New York and New England. with most locations seeing readings peak in the lower to mid 80s. The only exceptions to this will be across the highest terrain.
Highs today will be in the lower to mid 80s, then highs on Monday will be mostly in the mid to upper 80s except for lower 80s well inland.
646 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 A large upper level low will pass south of the area through Monday. High pressure will then become prevalent through the rest of the week. Upper low near the Mississippi-Alabama border will push into northern Georgia today. Upper low will track to the Carolina coast during the period. Highs will once again be warmer in northern counties where it will get into the 80s while further south will be limited to the mid to upper 70s. On Monday evening, a gradually-broadening closed upper high will extend across the Great Lakes and into New York. An upper low will still be in place to its south, slowly moving eastward across the Carolinas.
A mid/upper low continues to shift eastward this morning and is now situated near AL/GA/TN state lines. However, a few convergent axes associated with the low are pooling sufficient moisture and providing sufficient lift for isolated showers. Today: Water vapor/00Z synoptic analysis indicates upper low right over the MS/AL state line. As this trough ejects to the east, right entrance region will persist over the region. Mostly sunny skies & seasonable highs in the low to mid 80s are expected. High pressure will keep the region dry after midnight & slightly below seasonable lows in the mid 50s northeast to low 60s elsewhere.
Currently - A surface through lower level low pressure system continues to spin near the Carolina coast while broad weak troughing extends across South Florida and western Cuba. Meanwhile, a mid and upper level trough lingers over the southeastern United States and the Keys remain within the drier mid and upper levels along its southern and southwestern periphery. While overnight lows are generally in the upper 70s, the light flow has allowed some locations to radiate into the lower 70s. Through the first half of the weak a couple of upper short wave troughs will traverse the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, rain and thunder chances will press upwards, likely peaking after midweek as the troughs phase in the eastern gulf.
EDT Sun May 28 2023 Low pressure will move northward along the South Carolina coast this morning, then inland near the North Carolina border on Sunday. The low will linger over central NC as it dissipates through Monday. Periods of rain/showers are expected to continue today as a coastal low located just off the coast of SC this morning is expected to lift northward and move inland near the NC/SC boarder and begin to weaken, while and an associated mid/upper level low wobbles eastward across the Deep South into the Southern Appalachians today. The main warm front is expected to remain to the west of the area. However, we may see up to 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE develop later today and this evening as the mid/upper low approaches, yielding a slight chance for some storms, although severe weather is not expected.
A Rex block persists over the eastern CONUS, with high pressure at all levels over the Great Lakes, and mid/upper level low pressure over the southern Appalachians early this morning. The mild/moist air moving westward is being lifted over a cooler inland air mass, and then progressing around the mid/upper level low into the JKL forecast area.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are mainly in the lower 80s with dew points hovering near 70 degrees. Lastly, a Rex block pattern remains across eastern United States with high pressure over the Great Lakes and low pressure over the southeastern United States. The Keys remain on the southern side of the low pressure resulting in zonal flow across the Gulf of Mexico.
Low pressure continues to churn just to the northeast of the region this morning, with low clouds and some patchy drizzle persisting over far southeastern GA and towards Nassau and northern Duval Counties. Clearer skies will gradually make their way northeastward throughout today and into tonight as the low slowly pulls away. High temps will be overall a bit below average, though this will be highly dependent on how fast the low, dense clouds move out of northeastern areas.
738 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 The local area remains in a wedge of drier air today as an area of low pressure moves north into the NC coastline and weak ridging builds over the area.
1032 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 High pressure will remain firmly in place across the Great Lakes through the rest of the long holiday weekend. with daytime highs reaching the lower to mid 80s both today and Monday. Deep layer-ridging will dominate our weather through this period and well beyond. with just some thin high cirrus attendant to the southeastern US closed low working across western New York today into this evening. and then some spotty mid and high clouds pushing across the North Country tonight as a weak backdoor cold front drops across eastern New York and New England. with most locations seeing readings peak in the lower to mid 80s. The only exceptions to this will be across the highest terrain.
613 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023 (Today) Mostly clear skies early this morning will continue through midday as the weak trough axis at the surface responsible for yesterday's convection shifts eastward. Our main feature to watch today will be a weak non-tropical low pressure system off the Carolinas coast. The system will gradually phase with a cut off upper level low centered over the TN Valley today.
532 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023 (Today) Another seasonably warm and mostly dry day is in store across the region today as high pressures remains settled over much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Morning low temperatures today are forecast to be in the low 50s to low 60s for the Valley and foothills with 30s to 50s in the mountains. An upper level low looks to drop down over the California Coast over the next 24 hours or so, and will continue to progress southward through midweek and then shift inland. Another round of locally breezy onshore winds will allow for those cooler temperatures in the Delta area and adjacent Valley locations where highs will be slightly cooler, in the low to mid 70s.
704 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 Aviation High pressure remains in control of our weather into Monday.
With both of these features gradually working toward eastern Oklahoma this afternoon and the mid-level ridge axis passing to the east, nudged low PoPs a bit further east than previous forecast. While the low level jet will remain weak by spring standards, sufficient warm advection and inflow may help sustain the eastern edge of the activity as it moves into northeast Oklahoma after 08Z.
Tonight's temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than last night, but still refreshing. This weekend's upper low will move east tonight, taking with it the deeper bands of moisture.
235 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 Tonight into Memorial Day: Lingering convergence and shallow moisture associated with a departing mid/upper low are kicking off isolated showers across parts of south/east MS this afternoon. As the upper low pulls further east of the area, surface ridging will build southward over the area tonight and tomorrow, with northerly flow bringing a drier airmass into the region.
930 AM PDT Sun May 28 2023 A persistent trough over the West will keep a deep marine layer in place this week.
At the surface, the region remains between high pressure over the Great Lakes region and low pressure over the western High Plains. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 50s to the lower 60s. Interesting pattern looks to continue with the weak western CONUS trough remaining mostly in place with southwest flow aloft supporting low chances for generally weak convection. That is until another bubble upper high drifts down out of Canada.
With the addition of moderate relative humidity, heat indices have the potential to reach the low to mid 90s across all of south FL both days. Tonight's lows will remain in the the low 70s across the metro and drop into the upper 60s in the interior.
218 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 An upper level low to the southeast will continue to be the main player for weather in central Indiana through Monday. High and mid clouds will continue to move west across the forecast area, around the upper low. Although the upper low will not be racing away from the area, it will begin to trek to the east tonight, taking the weak forcing with it. Even though the upper low will be farther southeast, mid and high level moisture will continue to flow into the forecast area. This will push highs into the lower and middle 80s.
Surface winds are forecast to become a bit more westerly with a weak axis of high pressure over the northeast Gulf.
Have also lowered afternoon dewpoint temperatures closer to the NBM 10th percentile with with dewpoints struggling recently to get into the low 40s.
In the process, easterly surface winds will gain a southerly component, allowing for slightly milder temperature minimums in the mid-to-upper 60s, and dew points approaching the low-to-mid 60s (already indicative of the incoming moisture).
An upper level low continues to pivot across eastern TN and northeastern AL/northern GA early this afternoon.
This will place Central Alabama under deep northwesterly flow on the west side of the trough which will hold some dry air over the state with 1000-500mb mean RH at a range of 40-60% at any given time through tomorrow. Moisture content will be on the higher end of that range this afternoon, and a few isolated showers or a thunderstorm may develop with best chances across the southwest two- thirds of the area.
Decreasing rain chances on Monday with drier conditions and more breaks in the clouds across most of the area as the closed upper low moves east. Discussion: The closed upper low observed on WV imagery this afternoon across north Georgia is forecast to move east-northeast tonight as it begins to be influenced further by the westerlies. Overall precip values on Monday will be a tenth of an inch or less, mainly across the higher elevations of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Temperatures will remain about 5 to 10 degrees below normal, but will rebound from Sunday's low max temperatures as the closed upper low moves east of the mountains towards the North Carolina coast.
Warmer temperatures will occur across the area for most of this coming week.
While the upper closed low and the associated trough starts to strengthen over the West Coast today, an upper disturbance will cross CO. Latest NAM CAPE indicates anywhere from 2000-2700 j/kg residing across Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties this aftn and early eve, with the highest values over Baca County where SPC has outlined a SLIGHT potential for severe storms. Plan on high temps today in the 70s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to lower 80s for the plains. Upper disturbance continues to the E-NE and out of the area this evening, with temporary ridging developing over CO and NM as the western low continues to strengthen. Lows are forecast to cool to normal levels, into the mid 30s to mid 40s for the high valleys, and 40s to lower 50s for the plains.
330 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 Conditions will gradually improve overnight as low pressure continues to track northward over the Carolinas. Weak high pressure and near normal temperatures are then expected through the work week with a small chance of showers each day. The only thing impressive with this system is the low level circulation and little else. For Monday a mid level closed low will meander across the area and may bring a few showers late. The upper low responsible for our miserable holiday weekend will continue to spin overhead through Monday night.
/16/ (Sunday through Monday) Most of the short-term can be covered with the phrase, "Same old, same old" as both surface and upper-level ridging remain over the region. Beginning today, afternoon high temperatures should remain in the upper-80s, sans a few locations in our southern zones that could sneak into the low-90s. Temperatures will then slightly warm into tonight, once again influenced by the shifting ridge. Given this increased cloud cover, and the chance for rain, look for temperatures to be slightly cooler west, where less sun anticipated.
The center of the low has moved off the coast of the Bay Area this afternoon.
Partly sunny and dry conditions are expected with high temperatures climbing into the lower to middle 80s across all of central and southeast Illinois by Monday. MJA Rex Block characterized by prominent upper ridging over the Great Lakes and troughing over the Tennessee River Valley will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. Deep-layer moisture will continue to pivot northwestward around the trough from the Carolina coast, resulting in widespread showers/thunder across the Appalachians. Meanwhile further west where sunshine will be more prevalent, highs will reach the lower to middle 80s in the Illinois River Valley.
330 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 High pressure will continue to provide the North Country with warm and dry weather through most of the upcoming week. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Monday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s before much above normal values return for mid to late week.
343 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 An area of low pressure will drift slowly northward across eastern North Carolina through Memorial Day. In the mid-levels of the atmosphere a ridge was analyzed over the Great Lakes region with low pressure centered across the western Carolinas. In the mid-levels of the atmosphere though, a closed low pressure will move overhead with an associated jet enhancement. Memorial Day: A weakening area of low pressure will linger across eastern North Carolina through the day. High temperatures are forecast to range from the low 80s across SC to the low to mid 80s across SE GA.
247 PM MDT Sun May 28 2023 Large scale upper flow has turned more westerly today, although there remains a couple areas of low pressure, centered over SW Montana and near the Montana/Alberta border.
Temperatures will be cooler than average for most of the week.
1258 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 (Today through Monday Night) Subsidence will weaken slightly as ridging begins to weaken today.
1247 PM MDT Sun May 28 2023 Water vapor shows western CONUS trof with eastern CONUS rex block, with distinct short wave tracking north across the NE panhandle. At the surface, trof covers the western Dakotas. Effective bulk shear is quite weak today at 20kts or less, so severe threat will be quite limited and should mainly be confined to western SD along and east of the surface trof. A northern stream short wave moves through Monday as western CONUS trof splits. Additional storms expected, with better chance for strong/severe storms along and east of persistent trof over western SD. Southwest flow aloft will strengthen mid to late week, with better chances for more widespread storms late in the week as robust upper low/trof ejects northeast from the Desert SW.
This ridge will make for perfect grilling weather thanks to much warmer highs in the mid-to-upper 80s with little cloud cover.
Simultaneously, ridging across the State should further flatten as more PVA impulses slides across the region. Heading into Memorial Day, a mid to upper level trough should settle in over South-Central Texas. This feature is progged bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across portions of SE Texas as the trough drifts eastward.
This low will weaken during the next 24 hours and the clouds we see from it will decrease. The high that has been entrenched over the state is progd to lean toward the East Coast during the period. The result of this is that we'll begin to pick up a southeast component to the low level wind flow Monday night which will start to bring in warmer air.
Due to high over low block over the eastern CONUS and upper low well established over the SE US just east of the state, temps will remain below normal with relatively dry air.
The 12Z synoptic analysis shows the messy upper trough to our northwest and moderate westerly to southwesterly flow aloft over Colorado. Convection is underway over the high country. For the rest of the today, the flow aloft will become more westerly as a weak sfc lee trough remains along the I-25 Corridor. At this time, it appears storms may develop over the Cheyenne Ridge and then move ESE across portions of the nern plains late this aftn and evening.
1159 AM MDT Sun May 28 2023 The persistent trough across the West Coast and a blocking high to our east remain in place.
(This afternoon through Monday night) WV imagery shows southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast new Mexico this afternoon, as an upper trough moves through Sonora/Chihuahua. However, CAMs show enough marginal shear developing late this afternoon over the lower Trans Pecos and northern Permian Basin that a supercell or two will be possible. Monday, things start to dry out as upper-level ridging starts to build in from the west.
Low temperatures should be near normal or a few degrees warm in most areas, 40s and 50s across the plains and mostly 30s across the high country. Expect mostly clear skies until afternoon, allowing high temperatures a few degrees warmer than those today, in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the plains and 50s to 70s across the high country. The northern plains should be favored due to the best convection firing off the Cheyenne Ridge. Blocking pattern remains in place over the eastern half of the country through the upcoming week. A closed low over southern California will slowly track eastward across the Desert Southwest through the first part of the week.
148 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 A large upper level low will pass south of the area through Monday. High pressure will then become prevalent through the rest of the week. An upper level low will circulate over the eastern Tennessee Valley today. Upper low will track to the Carolina coast during the period. Highs will once again be warmer in northern counties where it will get into the 80s while further south will be limited to the mid to upper 70s. On Monday evening, a gradually-broadening closed upper high will extend across the Great Lakes and into New York. An upper low will still be in place to its south, slowly moving eastward across the Carolinas.
1235 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 (Rest of Today) Morning satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over the Tennessee Valley as northwest flow aloft continues to keep a relatively dry and cooler airmass in place. A cutoff low will continue to slowly track east through the Carolinas today, while at the sfc a low pressure system tracks north toward the SC/NC coast.
1110 AM MDT Sun May 28 2023 Rex block over the eastern CONUS will continue to offer unsettled conds over the region today as the mean upper trough over the western US ejects subtle impulses in SW flow. Another impulse will time over the FA Monday as diurnal heating allows for connection on the higher terrain, esp the northern BH where hires models prog TS's by early afternoon.
Storms are firing up south of this trough, which the NAM/HRRR seem to have a decent handle on this.
1227 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 A mid/upper low continues to shift eastward this morning and is now situated near AL/GA/TN state lines. However, a few convergent axes associated with the low are pooling sufficient moisture and providing sufficient lift for isolated showers. Today: Water vapor/00Z synoptic analysis indicates upper low right over the MS/AL state line. As this trough ejects to the east, right entrance region will persist over the region. Mostly sunny skies & seasonable highs in the low to mid 80s are expected. High pressure will keep the region dry after midnight & slightly below seasonable lows in the mid 50s northeast to low 60s elsewhere.
(This evening through Monday) Starting to see a few cumulus fields developing across the area with breaks in the high clouds. As such, have put the higher chances for PoPs generally along and north of the I-20 corridor this afternoon. Overnight lows will remain comparable to the last few nights in the low to mid 60s. As this trough pushes east through the day, we'll begin to see clearing skies to the west. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon look to climb into the low to mid 80s, though areas to the west could make a run towards the upper 80s should the clouds clear early enough in the day to take advantage of the peak heating.
This keeps the warm air flowing into the region pushing high temperatures today up into the low 80s. Low level winds look to become more convergent across the MO/KS state line which when coupled with the warmer temperatures presents an environment suitable for pop-up showers and thunderstorms. Ironically, this pulse looks to push a midlevel ridge northward into Canada which could possible create another Rex block across the Central CONUS.
As the low continues to track north through the Mid-Atlantic Coast, cloud cover will increase over northeastern AL and low confidence remainson how far west the clouds will linger overnight, if at all. No rain is expected as northwesterly flow reinforces a dry and seasonably cooler airmass over the area. Overnight lows will bottom out in the low to mid 50s.
128 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 Low pressure continues to churn just to the northeast of the region this morning, with low clouds and some patchy drizzle persisting over far southeastern GA and towards Nassau and northern Duval Counties. Clearer skies will gradually make their way northeastward throughout today and into tonight as the low slowly pulls away. High temps will be overall a bit below average, though this will be highly dependent on how fast the low, dense clouds move out of northeastern areas.
1220 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) Strong high pressure will drift from the Great Lakes toward New England the next couple of days, but will continue to bring mostly dry conditions/little in the way of wind to Arkansas. On the back side of the high, dewpoints will be somewhat higher today/Monday in the southern Plains, with readings getting into the lower/mid 60s. Troughing exists over the west and east coasts, with ridging over the middle of the country.
The s/w trough is forecast to evolve into a closed upper low as it moves slowly across the northern Coastal Bend Monday afternoon. The abundance of clouds and rain in the area will keep temps into the low to mid 80s. Rain chances shift east to the marine areas for Monday night as the upper trough moves east.
A few storms have already popped up in the higher terrain of Fergus county, and a few in Petroleum county.
Otherwise, this afternoon will be partly to mostly cloudy and humid with highs mainly in the lower and middle 80s.
The final piece of a broad upper level trough that has been stuck over the NW CONUS for the last week or so will finally move through the area over the next two days.
Pattern Synopsis: Upper-level ridging will stay parked over the Great Lakes through tonight as a closed low pinwheels over the southeast CONUS. Forecast/Details: High pressure gripping the region will keep dry weather and clear skies in place through the near term period. Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon will cool nearly 40 degrees overnight with lows ranging from the low to upper 40s early Monday morning.
349 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 The stretch of dry and seasonably warm weather will extend through Memorial Day weekend, becoming progressively hotter by midweek with daily highs in the low 90s.