Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
313 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 The center of mid to upper level low pressure is in vicinity of Georgian Bay and the Bruce Peninsula Ontario this afternoon. A rolling and tumbling action to the upper level PV feature and low pressure center will cause the deeper moisture to quickly exit the region by 23Z this evening. Loss of daytime heating with this low thetae will support very aggressive clearing tonight.
For pops tomorrow, a very weak mid level trof will move out of the northern plains and across the central plains. Will continue with the highest pops generally along and west of Highway 83.
136 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 A cold front will move into the region tonight with another round of showers expected.
A cold front will drop from the north tomorrow and could bring some sprinkles across northern MN.
305 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 The upper trough axis, evident on water vapor imagery, is finally pushing through, which is ending the light rain across our SE CWA. High pressure prevails on Sunday, which looks to be a beautiful day with highs in the 70s, low humidity and sunny skies. Quiet weather is expected through the period as the upper pattern is generally characterized by ridging over the Plains region that will slowly progress eastward while troughing gradually deepens over both the East and West Coasts. At the surface, high pressure will maintain its influence over the region through much of the week.
WAA continues as 850mb winds are out of the southwest which is ushering in warmer air (although fairly weak), therefore, temperatures are not expected to be as chilly as last night. This will result in surface temperatures around the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Wind speeds at 850mb will continue to be light becoming more variable for Sunday with the overall ridging pattern moving more east, bringing even warmer air over the CWA.
Discussion: At the current hour, a cold front is located across the Cumberland Plateau and will move east of our area by this evening. Shear parameters are still on the low end but enough shear is in place that we will have to monitor the potential for a few strong storms. Showers come to and end this evening when the cold front passes east.
Late Sunday afternoon/evening a compact 500 mb wave rides atop the weak inverted trough axis/convergence zone.
110 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 Look for dry weather with cooler temperatures following a cold frontal passage yesterday. Highs will primarily be in the middle 60s, except cooler near Lake Michigan.
A mid level trough will continue to push a cold front situated in northwestern MS at the moment. A cold front is situated just northwest of the area this morning and will move southeast through the morning into the afternoon hours. Cooler/drier air will move in overnight, with lows falling into the low to mid 60s.
101 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 A mid level trough will continue to push a cold front situated in northwestern MS at the moment. A cold front is situated just northwest of the area this morning and will move southeast through the morning into the afternoon hours. Cooler/drier air will move in overnight, with lows falling into the low to mid 60s.
The associated cold front; that extends throughout the Southeast U.
Upper-air pattern as we move into tonight will feature a closed low moving into the northeast CONUS with some ridging across the western CONUS. Temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s for areas north of I-20 and will range from the lower to mid 60s for areas south of I-20. For Sunday, temperatures will reach the mid 70s across our northern zones to the lower 80s across much of our southern zones.
A weak cold front will move into the area overnight tonight which could lead to more opportunities for rain tonight and Sunday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler again Sunday, with highs only into the low to mid 80s across South Texas.
/Issued 1245 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023/ /Through Sunday Night/ A pleasant Saturday is underway with temperatures several degrees below normal following last night's cold frontal passage. By tomorrow morning, a dense mid-level cloud deck will be spreading into the area from the southwest as broad troughing continues across the southwestern CONUS. With dry air present within the lower levels, its unlikely that much precip would be capable of reaching the surface.
114 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 A cold front will continue to slide east across the area this morning before exiting to the east by this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west.
1213 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 Today will mark the beginning of a quiescent stretch of weather characterized by upper-level blocking and surface ridging. Highs today will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s except in northwestern Indiana where onshore flow behind a weak backdoor cold front will hold readings in the lower 60s. Tomorrow will be warmer with highs in the upper 70s.
Most of the high-res Cams show convection confines mainly to areas across the Edwards Plateau north to around San Angelo.
Showers continue to quickly clear with cold frontal passage this afternoon. Showers will remain longest across the Ridges, which should mostly clear by late afternoon. StratoCu is already eroding across eastern Ohio, replaced with broken Cu on the backside of the low rotating over the eastern Great Lakes. Dry weather will continue through the short term as broad high pressure builds over the eastern CONUS, centered over lower ON/QC.
(This evening through Sunday Night) The weak cold front is already over the coastal waters, leaving the region under a relatively dry northerly flow and post frontal mid-to high clouds. Ridging axis aloft will continue to move overhead tonight, shifting the flow to a more southwesterly component.
118 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 Issued at 155 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2023 Overview: Quiet and cool weather expected today with sunny skies and highs in the low 70s. Expect afternoon highs to only reach the low 70s. The high will gradually shift east during the day, allowing for light winds to turn back to the south.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Upper level flow remains quite light with subtle ridging centered across the western Gulf of Mexico. The cold front that has brought today's cooler weather remains stalled right around the Rio Grande. Another disturbance set to move out of northern Mexico this morning brings another round of precipitation chances to the lower Trans Pecos through the south-central Permian Basin tomorrow morning until early tomorrow afternoon. By tomorrow afternoon, only the far western zones of the higher terrain will see enough instability for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. The Permian Basin and the lower Trans Pecos top out in the mid to upper 70s thanks to the morning/early afternoon precipitation with those along and west of the Pecos reach the 80s.
Given the lack of moisture the efficiency to bring the higher gusts to the surface will linger through sunset, but then expected to quickly decouple. Full sunshine returns again Sun with ridging overhead and temps rebounding into the mid/upr 70s. The large diurnal swing and dry parcels could accommodate temps rising 1-2 degrees warmer and a few locations could tap out around 80. Expect northwest flow aloft early in the period with upper ridging across the western half of the CONUS gradually shifting eastward.
Temperatures on Sunday will be 10-15 degrees cooler than Saturday near Lake Superior with cool northeast winds off the Lake.
MOST OF THE HIGH-RES CAMS SHOW CONVECTION CONFINES MAINLY TO AREAS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU NORTH TO AROUND SAN ANGELO.
Highs today will be cool locations struggling to reach the low 70s.
Precip may linger over southern counties a little longer overnight and redevelop northward as a warm front late Sunday, though 500 mb pattern shows NW flow in the wake of larger short wave progressing E over the eastern CONUS.
This will usher in some warmer temperatures as well as some increasing moisture, which will begin to feel more like late spring, with TDs creeping into the 50s. The mid level pattern going into the early part of the week will be mostly influenced by weak ridging aloft.
(This afternoon through Sunday Night) Rain is ending from west to east across Middle Tennessee this afternoon as a nice little cold front pushes across the area. Lows tonight will dip into the lower 50s! Highs on Sunday will be close to seasonal normals in the mid to upper 70s with sunny skies and lower humidity. Another cool and dry night is expected Sunday Night with Lows once again in the low to mid 50s.
(Tonight through Sunday night) The cold front that brought showers and storms to the area overnight is just south of our area this afternoon with cooler temperatures from the mid 70s to mid 80s seen today. Development is expected to begin over the higher terrain in Mexico this evening before moving across the Rio Grande and over the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. Temperatures tonight will generally be in the 60s, with an even cooler day expected for tomorrow. Highs across much of the area will be in the 70s, possibly remaining in the 60s in the higher terrain of the Hill Country on Sunday.
119 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 Occasional showers can be expected this morning as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through the first part of the upcoming week. Further to the N, where afternoon cloud cover will linger a bit, highs will only top out in the lower/mid 60s.
1109 AM MDT Sat May 20 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the western CONUS with ridge topping impulse diving southeast across ALTA. Return flow will usher warmer air back into the region as western CONUS ridge expands eastward.
213 PM MDT Sat May 20 2023 Main impactful weather for the short term will be the influx of concentrated wildfire smoke forecast to move into the area behind a weak cold front tonight. Upper pattern is northwesterly flow tonight with weak disturbance crossing into the Dakotas dragging a weak cold front through the region.
The lowest visibility has dropped has been slightly above 1 mile near Swift Current, SK.
Heading into early in new work week, mid-level ridging is forecast to build across the central US yielding mainly dry, seasonably warm weather for the local area.
We're starting off with clear but smoky skies this morning thanks to an upper ridge over the region. The ridge will shift eastward today as a trough advances toward the Pac NW coast. Sunday remains the better day for stronger thunderstorms across SE Oregon and portions of SW Idaho as the upper trough and accompanying cold front move into the Pac NW.
Temperatures are expected to peak in the lower to middle 70s this afternoon, with RH values approaching near-critical criteria. Wind gusts are expected to diminish through the afternoon and evening as daytime mixing weakens, with the highest winds occurring prior to the development of the lowest RH values.
Water vapor imagery highlights mean-layer ridging over the western Gulf and the extreme southern Plains. Coverage is isolated on the whole, but has favored the Lower Keys with some communities experiencing several rounds of summer showers.
The flurry of showers near and west of the Lower Keys is over, with coverage down significantly across the Keys this afternoon. Water vapor imagery highlights a mean-layer ridge reaching north from Central America into the Mississippi River Valley, butted against a low amplitude short wave sliding east into the southern Appalachians. The Keys are between a festering baroclinic complex over the southeastern Bahamas and the apex of the mean-layer ridge, where subsidence on the east side of the ridge has finally tamped down the moist congestus.
224 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 Current surface analysis places high stretching from the upper Midwest into the southern plains, while a trough stretches through the southern Canadian prairies dipping into the northern plains.
122 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 Aviation - Low Clouds Through Midday, Then Clearing A region of stratus across northern Lower Michigan will propagate S/SE into the morning hours as wraparound low level moisture, associated with the departing closed upper low, advects into the area.
1229 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 (Today through Sunday Night) At the time of publication (3 AM CT), an analysis of the latest surface stations indicates the presence of a weakly defined surface cold frontal boundary extending roughly from Bastrop northwestward through the Brazos Valley and towards the Madisonville area. With the resultant loss of WAA, some locations to the north of I-10 can expect to see highs limited to the lower 80s this afternoon. Lows will range from the low 60s in the northern zones to the low 70s closer to the cost.
In addition, the cooler airmass remains in place today with highs in the 70s. Temperatures have been bumped warmer a few degrees for tonight with the potential insolation and given the slightly warmer trend of temperatures last night with similar conditions. Thus, temperatures were bumped slightly warmer from the NBM with near normal lows in the mid to upper 50s.
101 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 A cold front will move into the region tonight with another round of showers expected.
Following the subsidence, a surface anticyclone is progged to become centered near the CWA by Sunday morning, setting the stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight into Sunday morning beneath clear skies. On Sunday, the surface anticyclone will still dominate the CWA but is expected to begin retreating to the northeast. Although the influence of the anticyclone will keep any advection minimal, modification of the in-situ airmass by strong insolation and deep BL mixing will allow high temps on Sunday to be around 5 F warmer than today. Pfahler Upper/mid-level time-mean northwesterly flow is anticipated to be maintained through most of the upcoming week, albeit quite weak/convoluted at times owing to multiple subtle mid-level vort mixima trapped within an amplifying ridge across the central CONUS.
139 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 (Issued 139 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023) Tonight through Sunday night: Quiet weather will continue through the rest of the weekend under high pressure. Temps will be a bit warmer tomorrow, with highs a few degrees above normal likely.
227 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 Tonight and Tomorrow: As the cold front makes its way southeast of our CWA tonight, rain chances should start to diminish. Cooler and drier air will be in the wake of the front as lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s. Highs will be cooler than the past days as temperatures will range from low to mid 80s statewide.
159 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 The upper low continues to drop into Lower Michigan this morning, and water vapor imagery shows plenty of dry midlevel air with skies clearing out behind the exiting system. Temperatures on Sunday will be 10-15 degrees cooler than Saturday near Lake Superior with cool northeast winds off the Lake.
316 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 A transient pattern is expected during the short term with weak ridging present across the Plains. The 576 dam ridge is all the up into the Northern Plains, but the 582 dam ridge is suppressed down into Texas.
A ridge of high pressure will bring near record to record temperature readings across the Northern Rockies through this evening. GOES GeoColor Satellite imagery continues to show wildfire smoke trapped under the ridge across much of the region. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Sunday as a trough of low pressure moves onshore in the Pacific Northwest.
857 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 A cold front is pushing off to the east this evening.
612 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) The weak cold front is already over the coastal waters, leaving the region under a relatively dry northerly flow and post frontal mid-to high clouds. Ridging axis aloft will continue to move overhead tonight, shifting the flow to a more southwesterly component.
The center of mid to upper level low pressure is in vicinity of Georgian Bay and the Bruce Peninsula Ontario this afternoon. A rolling and tumbling action to the upper level PV feature and low pressure center will cause the deeper moisture to quickly exit the region by 23Z this evening. Loss of daytime heating with this low thetae will support very aggressive clearing tonight.
701 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 Tonight and Tomorrow: As the cold front makes its way southeast of our CWA tonight, rain chances should start to diminish. Cooler and drier air will be in the wake of the front as lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s. Highs will be cooler than the past days as temperatures will range from low to mid 80s statewide.
The upper trough axis, evident on water vapor imagery, is finally pushing through, which is ending the light rain across our SE CWA. High pressure prevails on Sunday, which looks to be a beautiful day with highs in the 70s, low humidity and sunny skies. Quiet weather is expected through the period as the upper pattern is generally characterized by ridging over the Plains region that will slowly progress eastward while troughing gradually deepens over both the East and West Coasts. At the surface, high pressure will maintain its influence over the region through much of the week.
930 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 00Z upper air analysis this evening places an upper-level low over Lower Michigan with an upper-level ridge axis located across the western United States. Meanwhile, surface analysis this evening places a cold front from the Appalachians back through central Alabama and into southern Mississippi and Louisiana.
620 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 A transient pattern is expected during the short term with weak ridging present across the Plains. The 576 dam ridge is all the way up into the Northern Plains, but the 582 dam ridge is suppressed down into Texas.
Persistent advection of drier and cooler air into the area from the north and northeast will battle against decoupling and radiating/moistening. 19Z sfc analysis shows a cold front pressing south through eastern Kentucky. They all depict a compact closed low trough lifting into the eastern Great Lakes with its axis fading out over Kentucky this evening.
Current surface analysis places high stretching from the upper Midwest into the southern plains, while a trough stretches through the southern Canadian prairies dipping into the northern plains.
Dry weather will continue through the short term as broad high pressure builds over the eastern CONUS, centered over lower ON/QC.
632 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 (Tonight) The cold front and any thunderstorms/showers will be exiting our southeast counties by 00-01Z. Clearing of the lower clouds will occur from northwest to southeast this evening as drier north flow develops behind the cold front. Temperatures should drop into the middle 50s for most areas before morning, perhaps into the lower 50s in a few pockets of southern middle TN.
733 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 Showers will taper from west to east by early evening as a cold front crosses the Commonwealth. Regional radar loop at 2230Z shows a dwindling band of showers accompanying a cold front, which runs from KELM to just east of KAOO. Breaking clouds are already noted across the NW Mtns early this evening and this clearing trend should overspread the rest of the forecast area later this evening, as surface ridging and much drier air work in from the west. Min temps Sunday morning should range from the mid 40s over the Allegheny Plateau, to the low 50s in the Lower Susq Valley. Surface ridging and a dry northwest flow will yield mostly sunny and seasonable weather Sunday.
Another pleasant day is in store on Sunday, although it should be a little cooler along Lake Michigan. KPL (Issued 139 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023) Tonight through Sunday night: Quiet weather will continue through the rest of the weekend under high pressure. Temps will be a bit warmer tomorrow, with highs a few degrees above normal likely.
732 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 Cooler and drier air has returned to the region, although temperatures will quickly trend back above normal early to middle of this week, with dry conditions expected for the foreseeable future. As expansive high pressure nudges E into the OH Vly tonight, lows will dip into the mid/upper 40s just about everywhere -- about 10 degrees below seasonal norms.
High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather and lessening winds. Given the lack of moisture the efficiency to bring the higher gusts to the surface will linger through sunset, but then expected to quickly decouple. Full sunshine returns again Sun with ridging overhead and temps rebounding into the mid/upr 70s. The large diurnal swing and dry parcels could accommodate temps rising 1-2 degrees warmer and a few locations could tap out around 80. Expect northwest flow aloft early in the period with upper ridging across the western half of the CONUS gradually shifting eastward.
12Z KTWC sounding was at 3/4 inch precipitable water, which is the lowest for a morning sounding since May 15th. This trend is expected to continue over the next few days as high pressure slowly builds from central Mexico into the desert southwest.
Evening synoptic & water vapor analysis indicates cold core upper over south-central Canada, with trough axis extending down into the Great Lakes-Appalachians to southeastern states. Cooler lows in the upper 50s to low 60s in the Hwy 82 corridor to mid 60s to the south. /DC/ Tonight and Tomorrow: As the cold front makes its way southeast of our CWA tonight, rain chances should start to diminish. Cooler and drier air will be in the wake of the front as lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s. Highs will be cooler than the past days as temperatures will range from low to mid 80s statewide.
(Rest of tonight) A cold front that helped to bring showers and thunderstorms across the area earlier today has moved south and east of the region, extending from the western Carolinas, northern Georgia to south of Birmingham and Meridian. Temperatures by daybreak Sunday should cool into the low 50s north to mid 50s south.
751 PM MDT Sat May 20 2023 Evening Update: Smoke has moved into the lower levels of the atmosphere in the western half of the CWA. The lowest visibility has dropped has been slightly above 1 mile near Swift Current, SK.
622 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Upper level flow remains quite light with subtle ridging centered across the western Gulf of Mexico. The cold front that has brought today's cooler weather remains stalled right around the Rio Grande. Another disturbance set to move out of northern Mexico this morning brings another round of precipitation chances to the lower Trans Pecos through the south-central Permian Basin tomorrow morning until early tomorrow afternoon. By tomorrow afternoon, only the far western zones of the higher terrain will see enough instability for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. The Permian Basin and the lower Trans Pecos top out in the mid to upper 70s thanks to the morning/early afternoon precipitation with those along and west of the Pecos reach the 80s.
640 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Locally heavy rain, damaging winds, and hail all remain possible this afternoon and evening as a weak cold front slides into the region. Temperatures are expected to dip into the lower 70s across the CWA tonight before rebounding into the middle to upper 80s Sunday afternoon. A bit of clearing coupled with a weak northerly to northeasterly breeze Sunday night should allow temperatures across the Northern Ranchlands to sneak into the upper 60s while those along the Rio Grande remain in the lower 70s.
1006 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 Cooler and drier air has returned to the region, although temperatures will quickly trend back above normal early to middle of this week, with dry conditions expected for the foreseeable future.
Key Points: - Warmer tomorrow, then gradual warming trend through the week.
Shower chances will return over far inland SE GA toward dawn, ahead of a cold front, which will move through Sunday, providing for a stormy day.