Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level ridge directly over srn Colorado today, with 700 mb temps in the 12-14 degC range. Tonight, ridge flattens somewhat as upper level energy moves through the central Rockies.
608 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Today through Saturday night) Today and Saturday will see the continued passage of a ridge across the region causing fair weather and above normal temperatures. The areas that see the low 90s will be near or even at record including Amarillo. This cloud deck currently looks substantial enough to knock off a couple degree from the highs.
The exceptions will be within Houston's heat island where temps will fall into the low/mid-60s and areas near the beaches where lows are expected to be in the mid/upper-60s.
(Rest of Today) Temps have rebounded nicely into the lower/mid 60s for most spots from their earlier lows ranging mainly from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Intermediate/hi-res model guidance has the front sweeping thru the area later today, as high pressure out of the mid/southern Plains begins to build eastward into the region.
338 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Warm and dry conditions today as an upper ridge nudges into the area from the west. Relative humidity will drop into the lower teens in the afternoon, but with lighter winds than yesterday will see elevated rather than critical fire weather. Weak cold front will moves through late tonight and early Saturday morning. Slightly cooler temperatures behind the front for the weekend, with highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the 40s.
622 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Today through Saturday) Mid and upper level ridging over the desert southwest gradually builds eastward into the region today and tonight. Warm conditions in the low levels are indicated today, with NAEFS H85 temperatures near the 99th percentile for the 30 year climatological period. The ridge flattens Saturday, allowing Hurricane Norma in the Pacific to turn north and northeast, approaching the tip of Baja California. Highs Saturday are forecast to be slightly "cooler" than today, but still reaching daily records. One other thing to note, minimum afternoon relative humidity values will be low, into the lower teens today and upper teens to lower 20s Saturday.
641 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Today) A storm system heading eastward across the north/central Great Lakes had a cold front extending southward to middle Tennessee, then across northern Mississippi to Lousiana. Otherwise rather mild for mid October conditions prevailed with temperatures from the lower 50s to lower 60s. Otherwise, the above noted cold front should move across the area mainly this morning. The light winds will become SW-W and increase into the 10-20 mph range with gusts of 30-35 mph at times, especially in the higher terrain and our more eastern areas. Under mostly to partly sunny skies, high temperatures should warm into the low/mid 70s - close to seasonable norms (Highs ~75 / Lows ~50).
Conditions will turn windy and cooler over the weekend with frequent showers downwind of Lake Erie over the western and northern Alleghenies.
Despite a cold front passing through the region early this morning, relief will be short lived as WAA returns to the area by midday tomorrow.
1209 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Today and tonight) High-amplitude ridging over the western U.
1000 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Current forecst remains in track with building upper ridge across the region leading to near record warmth under mostly sunny skies and generally light diurnal wind regimes. Upper level ridge directly over srn Colorado today, with 700 mb temps in the 12-14 degC range. Tonight, ridge flattens somewhat as upper level energy moves through the central Rockies.
(Now through Saturday) Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through the period as an upper-level longwave trough pushes eastward into the western Atlantic. In its wake, high pressure builds in, allowing for a much drier airmass to advect into the region (dew points dropping into the 40s). With clear skies, drier air, and lighter winds tonight, efficient radiational cooling will allow for lows to drop into the low to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to low 60s closer to the coast. Highs tomorrow will rise into the low to mid 80s. /96 (Saturday night through Friday) An upper level ridge will build over the area Through the period.
A tightening pressure gradient between these features will result in a breezy day for Minnesota and Wisconsin, with the highest gusts forecast to occur during the morning and into the afternoon.
With the eastern CONUS upper trough shifting away from us, the low level thermal ridge is expected to expand quite a bit thru the course of the day. With full insolation, will lean toward the warmer solutions in the model spread, such as the NBM 75th %ile, CONSMOS and CONSShort. Surface winds will remain light thru the day with weak high pressure sliding overhead. Lacy (Today) A highly amplified pattern will remain in place today with a robust western USA ridge and eastern trough. The CWA remains along the eastern edge of the upper level ridge, with a slight warming of the thermal profile compared to yesterday. This will result in somewhat warmer temperatures today than what has been seen lately, with highs in the low to mid 80s for much of the area, except upper 70s in northwest AR.
238 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday) Conditions continue to clear up as the cold front makes its way From the Northwest to the Southeast. Temperatures behind the front will not be substantially cooler than the past few days, however clear conditions may mean overnight lows become a tad cool.
Looks like not much change the next 24 hours with another very warm day on Saturday due to increasing southerly flow and 850 MB thermal ridge(22 to 25 deg C) just west of our area.
242 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Key Messages -Winds will be gusty at times into the evening, mainly west of the Red River Valley -More cloud cover is anticipated north of a line from Langdon to Hillsboro to Fergus Falls on Saturday, with a few showers also possible As of mid afternoon, the wind shift line (trough/warm front) had reached a Devils Lake to Valley City line, where winds were turning to the west, followed by the northwest.
Upper level analysis shows trough across the eastern US, with ridge remaining over the Rockies region. Some cooler air will push into the area for the weekend behind the cold front, but temps will still be 5 to 15 degrees above average.
129 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023 High pressure will control the weather this weekend. A weak wave begins to break down the ridge this weekend, but there will be very limited moisture for any precipitation. A deep, negatively tilted Pacific trough is progged to dig southward along the Western U.
938 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Some very localized fog was observed this morning near Baker City, OR, but otherwise, clear skies prevail amidst a seasonably strong upper ridge over the western CONUS.
322 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Episodic rain showers will continue today with the passage of upper-level low pressure and a cold front.
238 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023 GOES Water Vapor imagery continues to highlight a well developed ridge of high pressure across the Northern Rockies. Areas of high clouds are streaming over the ridge in northern Washington, Idaho, and Montana and across central Oregon.
/96 (Now through Saturday) A large upper trough is currently situated over the eastern CONUS and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a strong northwesterly flow aloft over the region. The base of the trough over the southeast states and eastern Gulf will lift northeastward through the near term, with a mostly zonal flow aloft returning over the region Saturday afternoon. Westerly surface winds will occur today in advance of an associated weak cold front approaching from the northwest. With plenty of sunshine today and Saturday, high temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s, with the exception of the upper 70s at the beaches.
(This evening through Saturday) A dominant mid level ridge will continue to build in from the west in the short/near term, providing unseasonably warm weather to the region through Saturday.
222 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Northwest flow will prevail over the weekend with the region sandwiched between an upper level trough over the eastern U. and ridging over the central and western U. The passage of a cold front will shift gusty winds around from the southwest to the northwest midday Saturday, but any advection of colder air should lag behind until Saturday night.
Broad, strong high pressure is over the western United States with the ridge axis aloft centered over southeast Idaho currently. Also, there is a very weak upper level low over northern California. Expect plenty of sunshine today and, to a lesser degree, tomorrow as upper level clouds from the weakening upper level low move over the area through the high pressure. Saturday temperatures will still be well above normal but will drop off a few degrees from today's highs due to clouds and a slight drop or weakening of high pressure.
Conditions will turn windy and cooler over the weekend with frequent showers downwind of Lake Erie.
This Weekend: Very pleasant fall weather prevails region-wide this afternoon with weak surface ridging and plenty of sunshine.
1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Today through Saturday night) Today and Saturday will see the continued passage of a ridge across the region causing fair weather and above normal temperatures. The areas that see the low 90s will be near or even at record including Amarillo. This cloud deck currently looks substantial enough to knock off a couple degree from the highs.
(Tonight) Westerly flow will allow surface based ridging from the central Plains to build eastward into the mid TN Valley tonight behind the departing frontal boundary.
This feature exists at the base of a mid-level trough residing to our north over the southeastern United States. While the lower dewpoints will lead to a pleasant start to the day with forecasted lows in the 60s area-wide, the lack of any cold air advection (and any significant cloud cover) behind the front will do little to stifle the overall trend of warming temperatures by the afternoon hours.
A cold front will cross the region this evening, followed by a drier air mass this weekend.
An upper level ridge axis will move overhead through tomorrow but it will be dampening during this time.
334 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Key Messages: * After a HOT day today, the weekend will be a noticably cooler (but not cold).
147 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Widespread to scattered rain showers will continue today with the passage of a upper-lvl trough and a cold front. Precipitation chances will likely continue for portion of our region through Saturday morning as the low exits east and scattered lake enhanced showers remain. Moisture/PWAT will also decrease with time behind a crossing cold front, but scattered showers will continue through the afternoon in incipient cold advection as the upper trough axis approaches and crosses. Areas that will likely see measurable precip after midnight Saturday will be northwest of Pittsburgh and along the ridges due to upsloping.
111 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023 A cold front will move across the area into this evening.
However the track of the low looks likely (80%) to go right through southern WI, and because the moisture remains largely on the northeast side of the low the main precip chances will be restricted to a very limited area. Kuroski (Issued 241 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023) Today through Saturday: Broken stratus continues to stream across the area early this morning, as an upper level trough slowly progresses eastward through the Great Lakes. Highs in the low 60s are expected west of Madison, with mid to upper 50s closer to Milwaukee.
(This evening through Saturday night) Model agreement continues to see the flattening of the ridge over the course this evening which will bring a more zonal flow to the Panhandles for the weekend. As for today in particular, models expect the warming trend that has been following this ridge to reach its peak with temperatures staying well above the normal. For a more quantitative perspective, high temperatures for today are expected to reach into the high 80s to low 90s, which could set or exceed record highs for both Borger and Amarillo. Currently, latest guidance is expecting the cloud cover to win out with temperatures trending a degree or two cooler than last night, but, given these temperatures are still a couple degrees from the record, will have to continue to monitoring as clouds begin to develop tomorrow morning.
135 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer today, dry for most. Despite the breeze and cold front, temperatures on Saturday will be right at climatology, with highs in the upper 50s.
We still see a slight SW influence in the warmer air.
(This evening through Saturday night) Synoptically, upper level troughing continues to exit to the east today while upper level ridging moves towards the area. While we did have some fog issues this morning, with the drier and slightly cooler air for tomorrow morning we don't look to have as much of an issue.
Near maximum temperature daily records are expected across some locations especially across the Lower Valley where our KBRO climate site is located (see climate section below for more information). Other than the summer-like temperatures, dry conditions continue through Saturday with another opportunity for fog development across the northern Ranchlands and along and south of Highway 77 to the Lower Valley overnight/early Saturday morning. Saturday's highs are expected to be very similar as those of today or maybe a degree or two cooler due to cloudiness.
1132 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Current forecst remains in track with building upper ridge across the region leading to near record warmth under mostly sunny skies and generally light diurnal wind regimes. Upper level ridge directly over srn Colorado today, with 700 mb temps in the 12-14 degC range. Tonight, ridge flattens somewhat as upper level energy moves through the central Rockies.
It is just slightly warmer in the parishes all around 90 degrees. High pressure will keep to our NE this weekend and a warmer trend will follow mainly for lows going forward as southerly winds bring the dew points back up with some daybreak light fog or mist possible. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s for many and then lows overnight will be warmer behind the wind shift back to southerly.
134 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023 A cold front will move across the area into this evening.
1158 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Today through Saturday) A longwave trough is amplified north to south across much of the eastern CONUS this morning, with ridging over the Four Corners stretching toward the Pacific Northwest. The longwave trough axis will move through the area early this morning, with mid level winds becoming northwesterly before sunrise. The cold front gets left behind, but eventually moves through the area this afternoon and tonight, becoming increasingly east to west oriented. With warm air under the ridge to our west, advection patterns remain neutral to warm, even behind the front. Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the low to mid 70s northeast to lower 80s southwest. A tightened pressure gradient and mixing in the lowest levels will setup breezy westerly to northwesterly winds, with occasional gusts of 25-28mph.
1154 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Today through Saturday) Overall, expect rain-free and warm conditions to persist through the period as ridging aloft continues to dominate over the region.
An area of low pressure to our north will be the main impacting feature in the near term. The low itself will sink across Minnesota tonight and into Ohio by the end of the day Saturday.
The prevailing ridge that has been over the region bringing unseasonable warm and dry conditions begins to collapse today.
1131 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) The end of this week features highly anomalous warmth thanks to a strong upper ridge stretching from northern Mexico through the Great Basin. Between very dry conditions behind the front from a few days ago and subsidence from the ridge, precipitation changes stay nil in the short term.
105 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Today through Saturday) Mid and upper level ridging over the desert southwest gradually builds eastward into the region today and tonight. Warm conditions in the low levels are indicated today, with NAEFS H85 temperatures near the 99th percentile for the 30 year climatological period. The ridge flattens Saturday, allowing Hurricane Norma in the Pacific to turn north and northeast, approaching the tip of Baja California. Highs Saturday are forecast to be slightly "cooler" than today, but still reaching daily records. One other thing to note, minimum afternoon relative humidity values will be low, into the lower teens today and upper teens to lower 20s Saturday.
Rain moves out Saturday evening as a cold front scours out any remaining low-level moisture. 25 inches with the highest amounts near and southwest of a Grand Rapids to Lansing line where a bit of FGEN is expected to provide a bit of a boost to rainfall.
A dry cold front will trek across the region early Saturday morning; however, warm and above normal temperatures are expected on Saturday.
(Tonight through Saturday night) The cold front is difficult to pick out this afternoon, but based on surface theta e contours, it is likely still on our northern border this afternoon, though drier air has moved across much of our forecast area with westerly winds in the lowest levels. This evening expect moisture to quickly return keeping us from having cooler temperatures, and also likely bringing another night of fog.
Key Messages: - Dry with above normal temperatures A cold front/sfc trof is beginning to take shape out west this morning, as energy aloft starts to dig toward the upper Mississippi valley. The airmass will be cooler on Saturday, with highs mainly in the 60s, but again, mixing depths look relatively deep.
As the trough axis swings to the east through the weekend, low level ridge axis will slowly build to the east.
353 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Low pressure and associated cold front pulls away from the area tonight.
Temperatures are nearing 80, on their way into the lower 80s with dewpoints near 70.
1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Rest of Today) Temps have rebounded nicely into the lower/mid 60s for most spots from their earlier lows ranging mainly from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Intermediate/hi-res model guidance has the front sweeping thru the area later today, as high pressure out of the mid/southern Plains begins to build eastward into the region.
Saturday will trend cooler as a front moves onshore and the ridge breaks down.
540 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance Northwest flow will prevail over the weekend with the region sandwiched between an upper level trough over the eastern U. and ridging over the central and western U. The passage of a cold front will shift gusty winds around from the southwest to the northwest midday Saturday, but any advection of colder air should lag behind until Saturday night.
302 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023 AFTERNOON UPDATE: No major changes were made to the short term forecast as things continue on track with the movement of the upper level ridge.
High pressure continues to to bring relatively warm temperatures and dry conditions through tomorrow.
A cold front has begun diving south across the area allowing areas across the north to cool off faster than anticipated by NBM. GAH AFTERNOON UPDATE: No major changes were made to the short term forecast as things continue on track with the movement of the upper level ridge.
High pressure, along with cooler and drier air, begins to build into the region tonight. Cold front is moving through the forecast area currently as convection rapidly moves to the east. Drier air will continue to move into the forecast area with clearing skies and cold advection developing as the upper trough axis shifts east as well and deep northwest flow develops. Low temperatures as a result expected to be cooler tonight in the mid to upper 40s. The upper level trough axis will shift east of the region on Saturday with a northwest flow developing aloft. Temperatures will warm under full sunshine and a downslope flow, with highs reaching the lower to mid 70s. Lows should be in the lower to mid 50s as a result.
524 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023 High pressure will control the weather this weekend. A weak wave begins to break down the ridge this weekend, but there will be very limited moisture for any precipitation. A deep, negatively tilted Pacific trough is progged to dig southward along the Western U.
(This afternoon through Saturday) Conditions continue to clear up as the cold front makes its way From the Northwest to the Southeast. Temperatures behind the front will not be substantially cooler than the past few days, however clear conditions may mean overnight lows become a tad cool.
Upper level ridge brought another warm day today and expect this to continue into Saturday. The upper level ridge will weaken as it shifts east of the area on Saturday with the approach of the next upper level trough.
This along with the low level dry air should allow for a quick temperature drop through the 50s and into the 40s most areas by late evening. Temperatures look to be near to a little cooler of those today, and mainly in the 60s for highs with partly to mostly sunny skies.
826 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Episodic rain showers will continue with the passage of upper- level low pressure and a cold front.
940 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 As of 915 PM CDT, temperatures are approaching the lower 60s under clear skies and calm winds. This, in combination with dew points in the lower 50s, will allow radiational cooling for temperature minimums in the low-to-mid 50s. It is just slightly warmer in the parishes all around 90 degrees. High pressure will keep to our NE this weekend and a warmer trend will follow mainly for lows going forward as southerly winds bring the dew points back up with some daybreak light fog or mist possible. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s for many and then lows overnight will be warmer behind the wind shift back to southerly.
645 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 As the trough axis swings to the east through the weekend, low level ridge axis will slowly build to the east.
541 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Upper level ridge holds on for tonight and into Saturday with continued southerly flow at the surface.
654 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) The cold front is difficult to pick out this afternoon, but based on surface theta e contours, it is likely still on our northern border this afternoon, though drier air has moved across much of our forecast area with westerly winds in the lowest levels. This evening expect moisture to quickly return keeping us from having cooler temperatures, and also likely bringing another night of fog.
625 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) Synoptically, upper level troughing continues to exit to the east today while upper level ridging moves towards the area. While we did have some fog issues this morning, with the drier and slightly cooler air for tomorrow morning we don't look to have as much of an issue.
739 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Strong upper level ridge will continue to produce quiet and mild weather. This sets the stage for modestly cooler (i. still warmer than normal) temps tonight & Saturday.
Key Messages -Winds will be gusty at times into the evening, mainly west of the Red River Valley -More cloud cover is anticipated north of a line from Langdon to Hillsboro to Fergus Falls on Saturday, with a few showers also possible As of mid afternoon, the wind shift line (trough/warm front) had reached a Devils Lake to Valley City line, where winds were turning to the west, followed by the northwest.