Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overall its a quite night with northwest flow aloft and high pressure over the SW CONUS. Sunday will be similar though a touch warmer.
608 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (Today through Sunday night) With a stout upper-level ridge over the Desert Southwest, the Panhandles will be under some modest northwesterly flow aloft today.
649 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Today through tonight: A cold front pushing south across the area will bring a marginal risk for severe weather, and it will help suppress the significant heat stress conditions to along/south of the Highway 84 corridor where a heat advisory will continue for today. The convective rainfall will continue for the next several hours before diminishing later this morning as the minor trough exits. Storms should diminish early this evening with cooler and less humid air conditions expected overnight.
This afternoon, a mid-level trough, one that will linger over the region for a few days, arrives. Moisture remains limited, but there may be just enough support from the trough to fire a few isolated showers this afternoon north of Pittsburgh.
649 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 With high pressure in place and northwest flow, the weekend is shaping up to be warm and dry.
629 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Weak high pressure will persist through the weekend.
620 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (Today through Sunday) The Subtropical Ridge is shifting to near the Four Corners region early this morning and will linger there today through Sunday.
The high pressure ridge remains centered over the southern Great Basin this morning, allowing for hot temperatures to persist across the Intermountain West this weekend. For Sunday, much of the same can be expected as the high nudges eastward. resulting in slightly warmer temperatures across the area. A wobbling center of high pressure camped out over NM/AZ begins to deliver another round of moisture into the Great Basin and eastward onto the West Slope.
Otherwise the upper ridge will continue to build into the state, hot and dry conditions expected.
Strong high pressure will remain over western Montana and north central Idaho through this weekend.
747 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 A slowly departing upper level low will support a mix of sun and clouds along with widely scattered and lighter rain showers today. Temperatures will begin trending warmer on Sunday, with above normal temperatures favored by midweek.
314 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Another day of near record heat will be on tap today as a strong area of high pressure remains positioned across the Southwest. A Four-Corners ridge remains in place today which will result in another hot day, perhaps the hottest day of the week. Temperatures are expected to heat up into the 100-105 degree range across western Nevada valleys while Sierra valleys reach into the lower 90s. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for today, so be sure to take the heat seriously and take actions to reduce your risk: mainly avoid strenuous outdoor activity during the afternoon hours, or if it can't be avoided, keep hydrated and take plenty of breaks with access to shade or a cooler indoor environment.
Strong high pressure will bring hot and dry conditions through the weekend.
858 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Weak high pressure will persist through the weekend.
/Issued 1136 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023/ /This Afternoon through Sunday Night/ After multiple days of triple digit heat, we'll finally see a "cool" day today behind a cold front that has now pushed through Central Texas. Temperatures across the region are in the mid 80s which is about 10 degrees cooler than the last several days. Mostly sunny skies and a persistent north wind will prevail through the rest of the afternoon with highs expected to climb into the low to mid 90s. The center of the mid level ridge axis will creep ever closer on Sunday allowing high temperatures to climb by about 5 degrees over today's highs.
The 500 mb ridge axis to our west nudges closer with 500 mb heights rising some 30 meters from today to tomorrow, and 700 mb temperatures also rising to near 16 degrees Celsius, translating to maximum temperatures near 90 degrees west of I-25, with mid 90s to near 100 degrees further east. With warmer temperatures on Sunday and the airmass warming slowly, minimum temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than tonight.
1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance Overall its a quite night with northwest flow aloft and high pressure over the SW CONUS. Sunday will be similar though a touch warmer.
114 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure builds in today, bringing mostly dry weather.
Sunday afternoon look for a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms as the trough aloft deepens.
A broad mid-level ridge over the western US flows into a trough over the eastern US. This is keeping northwest mid-level flow over the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure remains in place. Tonight, high pressure will keep winds calm. East the of the interstate, expect the low 80s to be more common. By the start of the week, large, amplified upper level ridging will be in place across the western CONUS and western Atlantic while large scale troughing will be in place across the eastern CONUS. During the course of the week, the western CONUS ridge will begin to flatten as an upper level low/trough move into the Pacific NW all while the eastern CONUS trough gradually lifts northeast.
* A well-established area of high pressure remains parked over the Desert Southwest, with the ridge axis extending well north into the northern Rockies. * A trough nears the PacNW coast Sunday, shifting the ridge east and centering the high closer to the four corners region. In addition, it will allow some mid-high level moisture to sneak around the western periphery of the ridge.
Instability was focused over the relatively warmer waters at night along with a land breeze helping. MU CAPEs over the area this afternoon are 1000+ J/kg with temps in the lower 80s and dew points 55-60F. They will have a tendency to become more widespread by afternoon, with a bit more thunder developing as some diurnal heating takes place between the showers away from the cooler waters of Lake Michigan during the daylight hours.
A cold front extended from north-central MN southwest into central SD. Min temperatures to range from the lower to middle 50s north, lower 60s east-central WI.
204 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure will build overhead through tonight before moving offshore Sunday.
(This evening through Sunday) The cold front is currently situated just to our south. Temperatures today are cooler this afternoon behind the front, with Abilene and San Angelo roughly 5 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. The ridge to our west will start to move east toward our area. This will lead to warmer temperatures, with our highs back up into the 100s for much of the area.
227 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure will drift east across the Commonwealth this weekend, before settling south toward the Delmarva region by Sunday night. This high pressure system will give the area a much needed break from the stormy weather and a nice weekend.
925 mb temperatures soar into the upper 20C to the lower 30C, which is above the 75th percentile. Based on possible 925 mb and 850 mb temperatures, analogs suggest highs should should the upper 80s, to the lower 100s.
With the low wet bulb zero heights, any thunderstorm will be capable of small hail. Weak cyclonic 500mb flow pivots over the region today within the base of a persistent upper trough encompassing eastern North America. High temps in the lower 80s will be right around normal for late July.
(Rest of today through Sunday) Afternoon analysis shows a strong ridge over the western US and a trough over the eastern US. At the surface, there is a slow moving frontal boundary draped along the deep south and southeast US, and high pressure over the Bahamas. Low temps will remain mild and once again went on the higher side of guidance with low temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The highest PWAT values will be across the east coast metro, and there should be more of a push of the east coast sea breeze, so PoPs are highest there, but still only 30-40% across the area.
A rather deep 500 mb trough for July is over our region this weekend. This trough has brought rather comfortable temps and humidity today. Dew points at 18z were in the lower 60s, with temps in the lower to mid 80s. Tonight will be mainly clear, aside from some high clouds associated with a passing upper-level trough late tonight. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.
(This afternoon through Sunday) Temperatures are running cooler across the area early this afternoon due to the widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms earlier this morning in addition to a weak front which is extending from southwest Georgia into Central Mississippi. It will feel cooler tomorrow morning across the northern half of the area where lows will be in the mid to upper 60s. An upper-level trough axis begins to slowly pass over the Deep South tomorrow which will usher in a large presence of dry air aloft as we enter a period of less active weather.
1221 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front has pushed through the entire FA and has allowed temps to drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s as of 1 AM CDT. Upper flow will become slightly more west-northwesterly today as the upper trough across the eastern CONUS amplifies.
Lows will generally be in the lower 60s, although a few normally cooler spots could drop into the upper 50s. Most of the area will be dry with temperatures a few degrees warmer than today. Similarly, lows Sunday night will be just a bit warmer than temperatures tonight.
Cooler and less humid conditions expected this weekend.
1229 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (Today through Sunday night) With a stout upper-level ridge over the Desert Southwest, the Panhandles will be under some modest northwesterly flow aloft today.
(This afternoon through Sunday Night) A long wave trough is set up over the eastern US and we will see some weak short waves push over the area today and tonight. Not much of a change in the pattern for tomorrow as the long wave trough starts to push east.
116 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure will drift east across the Commonwealth this weekend, before settling south toward the Delmarva region by Sunday night. This high pressure system will give the area a much needed break from the stormy weather and a nice weekend.
Hot temperatures will continue this weekend as strong high pressure remains overhead. High temperatures will range from the mid 90s to low 100s for western Montana valleys with 102 to 106 degrees F for the lower elevations of north- central Idaho.
On Sunday, a series of vort maxes wrapping around the base of upper trough to provide extra lift to enhance PoPs over the Nature Coast into the Tampa Bay area while SW FL remains drier due to the Saharan Dust. The upper trough to hold in place into the Gulf as the surface frontal remains over northern portions of the FL Peninsula into mid week. Late week, the upper trough weakens as upper ridging builds back into the region from the N Carib and the Bermuda high axis moves Nward into central then N Florida changing wind flow to E-SE with higher rain chances back to I-75 corridor and drought stricken coastal areas. High pressure remains over the Florida Straits as a weak front sags into the Deep South keeping the moderate gradient and westerly flow in the Eastern Gulf.
317 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 A weak cold front moved through the area today with northwesterly winds in place and a few isolated storms that formed along the boundary in the far east.
Another area of storms is developing along the cold front across southwest MN. The overall pattern across the CONUS won't change much during this time, but the northeastern trough will lift out and allow the heat dome to spread northeastward to the Upper Midwest.
135 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 A weak front will stall near the eastern Carolinas this weekend, accompanied by scattered thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures. A weak cold front will attempt to push offshore this morning before stalling and shifting back toward the coast as the sea breeze develops this afternoon. Highs should reach near 90 most spots but with some slightly drier low-level air behind the cold front heat indices mainly shouldn't even reach 100 degrees. The weak cold front should push back offshore bringing the rain chances with it. Lows should be near 70 most places away from the warmer beaches.
1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (Today through Sunday Night ) H500 ridging will be suppressed southwestward across the Four Corners during the period as longwave troughing intensifies across the eastern US. At the sfc, a cold front has shifted south of the state and ridging is expected to build in its wake.
Otherwise, we continue to track Monsoonal moisture advecting northward around the upper-level anticyclone centered over northern Arizona.
1246 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (Today through Sunday) The Subtropical Ridge is shifting to near the Four Corners region early this morning and will linger there today through Sunday.
On the brighter side of things, any areas that have seen thunderstorms so far have very quickly cooler down a good 20 degrees! So some relief from the heat is likely if storms continue to move into the area. Sunday looks to be the first time in several days that we do NOT have any heat hazards! Temperatures sit more in the low 90s for most areas and cloud cover sticks around for the first half of the day.
GOES Water Vapor imagery shows little moisture in the region downstream of an upper level ridge over the Colorado Plateau. The upper ridge is expected to strengthen and drift eastward on Sunday. Mid-level temperatures warm 2-4C across the region, which should lead to highs 5-10F warmer than today. Late afternoon cloud cover may limit things a bit, but highs should peak in the mid to upper 90s across most of the lower elevations.
1106 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023 07z surface analysis had weak trough from northern MN to northeast CO and weak ridge over the CWA. Lee trough in place from central MT to southeast WY. Temperatures will be about 5F warmer than yesterday, which is down a tad from previous forecast given greenness values. Sunday, upper/thermal ridge firmly in place with strong cap.
Closer to home, the 700 mb and 500 mb trough axes aloft still has not pushed through the area. How much dry air moves into the area overnight and how light the winds get will determine how much cooler we are tonight. Given the slow movement southeast of the 500 mb trough axis, do not want to go too cool and kept lows in the lower to mid 60s.
143 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Seasonable temperatures are expected this weekend under high pressure, with only very isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Generally scattered cumulus are present over the region this afternoon under high pressure. Meanwhile, a mid-level trough, one that will linger over the region for a few days, is approaching from the west. Moisture remains limited, but there may be just enough support from the trough to fire a few isolated showers this afternoon north of Pittsburgh. Weak low-level convergence along the southeastern ridges may also foster some scattered activity.
At the surface, rather amorphous ridging will be over the area, with light winds. Based on this, have used a 20-30% POP there, with the highest values over southeast Kentucky where the higher and more rugged terrain could provide an extra boost to get something going.
122 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 A slowly departing upper level low will support a mix of sun and clouds along with widely scattered and lighter rain showers today. Temperatures will begin trending warmer on Sunday, with above normal temperatures favored by midweek.
High pressure over Arizona will continue to bring hot conditions this weekend. Temperatures are rising but are slightly cooler at this time than they were yesterday morning but dew points are lower and forecasted CAPE is expected to be around 400-500 J/kg by early afternoon. However, drier air along the eastern side of the high pressure is moving into the Four Corners area this morning. The high pressure will continue to bring hot temperatures to the lower elevations of northern Arizona.
1211 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (Today and tonight) Cold front has continued to sag south, reaching very close to I-10 early this morning. Slightly cooler temperatures expected this afternoon, ranging from the mid 90s across I-20 to around 100 farther south. Lows tonight may even drop into the 60s in a few locations north of I-20 tonight, but most areas will be in the low to mid 70s.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Upper level ridging generally centered around the Four Corners and troffiness across the eastern part of the country will keep us in a n/nw flow aloft.
Mid level heights then build later Sunday as the mid level trough moves east and ridging approaches from the west.
In addition, a pop up shower/storms is possible on eastern Dack lee side trof/lake breeze convergence zn on Sunday, supporting schc pops. Lows slightly warmer due to southerly winds and higher sfc dwpts, with values in the lower 50s to lower/mid 60s.
205 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Weak high pressure stays in place into Sunday.
148 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Today and tonight there will be some weak energy coming over the top of the ridge and current water vapor imagery shows some moisture being transported into the southwest by the ridge as well.
The Texas South Plains region is situated between an upper level high pressure ridge centered over srn UT/nrn AZ, and a broad trough over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This should keep the bulk of the diurnal convection firing over the higher terrain of NM and srn CO off to our west this evening, although we'll hold on to slight chance PoPs across our western counties as outflow propagation could carry some of the activity across the state line.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) A weak front has moved through the area and brought slightly cooler temperatures. High dewpoints in the low 60s have advected in behind the front all the way to the Guadalupe Mountains and the combination of afternoon heating, higher elevations, and moist air should cause at least some isolated afternoon storms to form mainly in western Eddy and Culberson counties but also possibly stretching east into Lea County. Subsidence increases Sunday eliminating rain chances for all but the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis mountains where isolated storms may form with peak heating.
1034 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure will drift east across the Commonwealth this weekend, before settling south toward the Delmarva region by Sunday night. This high pressure system will give the area a much needed break from the stormy weather and a nice weekend.
340 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure remained centered over the border of southwest Utah and northwest Arizona this afternoon resulting in mostly dry northerly flow over the forecast area. One of the lows anchoring the blocked pattern is progged to shift to the coast of the Pacific Northwest Sunday forcing the high center eastward over the Four Corners. Expect highs in the 90s and low 100's across the lower valleys, mid 70s and 80s in the mountains and 60s above treeline on Sunday afternoon.
Previous Discussion: Generally scattered cumulus are present over the region this afternoon under high pressure. Meanwhile, a mid-level trough, one that will linger over the region for a few days, is approaching from the west. Moisture remains limited, but there may be just enough support from the trough to fire a few isolated showers this afternoon north of Pittsburgh. Weak low-level convergence along the southeastern ridges may also foster some scattered activity.
The round of recent hot weather will transition to cooler conditions during the next several days across interior portions of Northwest California. Water vapor imagery showed midlevel moisture and patchy high level cloudiness spreading north and then east around a Great Basin upper-level anticyclone this afternoon. but northwest CA will remain dry as upper troughing over the NERN PAC shunts the moisture east of the EKA CWA.
907 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure will build overhead through tonight before moving offshore Sunday.
Most of the area will be dry with temperatures a few degrees warmer than today. Similarly, lows Sunday night will be just a bit warmer than temperatures tonight.
630 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) A weak front has moved through the area and brought slightly cooler temperatures. High dewpoints in the low 60s have advected in behind the front all the way to the Guadalupe Mountains and the combination of afternoon heating, higher elevations, and moist air should cause at least some isolated afternoon storms to form mainly in western Eddy and Culberson counties but also possibly stretching east into Lea County. Subsidence increases Sunday eliminating rain chances for all but the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis mountains where isolated storms may form with peak heating.
927 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 A quiet night is in store for the Mid-South as high pressure continues to build over the region.
High pressure remains over the Florida Straits as a weak front sags into the Deep South keeping the moderate gradient and westerly flow in the Eastern Gulf.
607 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) Upper level ridging generally centered around the Four Corners and troffiness across the eastern part of the country will keep us in a n/nw flow aloft.
1014 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Weak high pressure builds across the area through Sunday.
A weak cold front moved through the area today with northwesterly winds in place and a few isolated storms that formed along the boundary in the far east.
847 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure will drift east across the Commonwealth this weekend, before settling south toward the Delmarva region by Sunday night. This high pressure system will give the area a much needed break from the stormy weather and a nice weekend.
618 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) A long wave trough is set up over the eastern US and we will see some weak short waves push over the area today and tonight. Not much of a change in the pattern for tomorrow as the long wave trough starts to push east.
704 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday) Temperatures are running cooler across the area early this afternoon due to the widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms earlier this morning in addition to a weak front which is extending from southwest Georgia into Central Mississippi. It will feel cooler tomorrow morning across the northern half of the area where lows will be in the mid to upper 60s. An upper-level trough axis begins to slowly pass over the Deep South tomorrow which will usher in a large presence of dry air aloft as we enter a period of less active weather.
621 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (This evening through Sunday) The cold front is currently situated just to our south. Temperatures today are cooler this afternoon behind the front, with Abilene and San Angelo roughly 5 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. The ridge to our west will start to move east toward our area. This will lead to warmer temperatures, with our highs back up into the 100s for much of the area.
456 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure remained centered over the border of southwest Utah and northwest Arizona this afternoon resulting in mostly dry northerly flow over the forecast area. One of the lows anchoring the blocked pattern is progged to shift to the coast of the Pacific Northwest Sunday forcing the high center eastward over the Four Corners. Expect highs in the 90s and low 100's across the lower valleys, mid 70s and 80s in the mountains and 60s above treeline on Sunday afternoon.
The Keys and nearshore waters reside under weak ridging extending from the western Atlantic into the Gulf, with the ridge axis over our area.