Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
217 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the Southeast states to the Mid Atlantic Coast through Saturday.
Saturday afternoon's high temperatures should be slightly cooler across the north tomorrow due to the weak front, but overall it should be a very pleasant day with highs in the 70s for most.
Key Messages: * Forecast has trended a bit cooler, cloudier, and somewhat "wetter" for today and tomorrow.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Warming trend will continue into Saturday as a weak upper level ridge builds into the region.
BB/03 (Now through Saturday) Heavenly fall weather will persist through the period with deep upper level troughing over most of the eastern US. Expect the cooler conditions to prevail with no rain chances and most clouds keep well offshore. Temperatures will continue to be cooler with lows remaining in the low to mid 40s tonight.
Temperatures will top out around 70 degrees for most this afternoon, with lows tonight dipping into the lower to upper 40s. All locations should stay above freezing tonight as southerly flow continues across the region. This could keep temps down a few degrees north of I-40, closer to readings seen this afternoon, while locations to the south should rise into the lower to mid 70s tomorrow. A stray shower or two could also accompany the trough across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Saturday night, but this system will generally be non-impactful across the area.
145 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 High pressure will keep conditions mainly dry, though a frontal boundary will bring a couple rounds of scattered showers to north Central New York this weekend.
The low RH values for tomorrow afternoon will be highlighted in the FWF.
Winds will continue to gradually weaken as high pressure continues to move down the east coast. Expect overnight lows across SE AL and SW GA to be in the mid to upper 40s with our FL counties in the low to mid 50s.
That being said, temperatures have overachieved the past couple days, as the departing high pressure led to increased mixing across the area. Breezy conditions will continue through the remainder of the afternoon, with the higher sustained winds/gusts along and northwest of I-44. With ensembles trending drier and the gusty winds continuing, some elevated fire weather conditions are expected for the remainder of the afternoon/early evening, mainly where relative humidity values dip into the low 30% range.
A weak upper ridge moving in by Saturday will create drier conditions across the region through early Saturday, although a small (10-15%) chance of precipitation will linger near and over the mountains this evening due to weak instability in place. By Saturday evening, precip chances will begin to increase west of Billings as the ridge moves out and more moisture moves in.
Tonight, temperatures should stay warmer across most of the area with the nice blanket of stratus clouds and fog again. Northwest flow will continue through Saturday afternoon when the ridge axis moves through.
In addition, dense fog and low stratus remains in the lower valleys across the area. Though confidence is low that this will occur for the entire valley, especially in the Lower Treasure Valley, which will be the last to see the increased winds and mixing.
120 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 High pressure just offshore will slowly work east across the western Atlantic through Saturday. A weak cold front moves into the Northeast on Saturday, eventually stalling to the north and dissipating.
(This evening through Saturday Night) An upper level ridging pattern setting up tonight with the passing of the weak upper level disturbance, will maintain tranquil weather conditions tonight. Temperatures will be slightly warmer with the lows expected to range between the low to mid 50s for areas north of I-10 (upper 40s to low 50s over the Piney Woods area), the upper 50s to low 60s for areas south of I-10, and the mid to upper 60s along the coasts. With the dewpoints rising, they may end up a degree or two less than the low temperature in some spots from late tonight into Saturday morning, which may result in areas of patchy fog developing during that timeframe.
Ridge of high pressure from Nova Scotia to Texas is providing us with a quiet autumn day. Sunshine and our location on the west edge of the ridge will lead to slightly gusty winds this afternoon, with gusts frequently into the 20-25 mph range. High clouds draped from the Great Lakes to the High Plains will begin to drift in from the northwest late this afternoon and this evening. Low-level thicknesses also increase a bit more compared to yesterday so expect warmer temps. Guidance typically has a cold bias in these types of patterns and flows, so have gone on the higher end of model output for afternoon highs (low/mid 60s). In addition to setting the stage for a colorful sunset this evening, the clouds will also keep overnight lows a tad warmer compared to previous nights.
315 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 Short Term/Marine Surface cold front moves though overnight with some moisture to work with as precipitable water values briefly spike up to about 0. Zonal flow will transition to more of a troughy pattern over the Great Lakes by the end of the week.
Expect mostly clear skies this afternoon, with highs in the lower 70s north of I-20 and mid 70s across the remainder of the region. So in general, we should continue with lots of sun or stars in the short term as the upper trough axis moves overhead this morning and a light NW flow sets up for the weekend.
Increasing moisture will keep overnight lows much warmer tonight with 40s/50s common. We could see some low clouds sneak into the Lower Trans Pecos around sunrise, but these clouds will quickly burn off.
H500 ridge axis over the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia this afternoon will translate east and over the Northern Rockies through Saturday morning. Ahead of this eastwards advancing ridge, weak jet dynamics in addition to weak mid- to upper level frontogenesis orientated over Southwest Montana will help to support the potential for isolated to scattered light rain, mainly along and south of the I-90 corridor through 03z this evening. As the upper level ridge axis translates east tonight, strong warm air advection aloft will lead to increasing upper level cloudiness across all of Southwest through North Central Montana, which will help to keep overnight low temperatures in the mid-20s to mid-30s across most lower elevations. Snow levels will be quite high (above 8000 ft) with this system, limiting snow the highest peaks.
Because of this orientation, strong high pressure to our south is being increasingly impeded by deepening low pressure to the north promoting a strong surface pressure gradient throughout the region. Due to the strong mixing throughout the day today, the low levels will likely have a relatively significant dewpoint depression. In its wake, some high clouds are possible, but surface conditions should remain calm through the rest of the period with temperatures reaching the low 60s.
256 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A large ridge of high pressure from the North Atlantic through the southeast United States to the western Gulf of Mexico will keep our weather quiet tonight. cooler in the usual sheltered cold spots and warmer in urban cores. On Saturday a very weak cold front will approach from the northwest but will lack significant low level moisture and only result in partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Highs will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s today, and the weather will be perfect tomorrow with sunny skies and highs in the lower to mid 70s. Most locations, with the exception of our colder valleys in the northeast, will remain above freezing tonight with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
238 PM MDT Fri Nov 3 2023 Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are a partly to mostly sunny mix as high clouds continue to move over the CWA post- cold front. Weak CAA behind the boundary is allowing for temps as of 200 PM MDT to range from the upper 60s into the lower 70s.
1232 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 (Today through Saturday) Upper level troughing moves off to the east with upper level ridging and dry zonal flow aloft taking hold through Saturday.
with a cold front farther upstream from James Bay/northwest Ontario to the Manitoba/North Dakota border. Nicely defined short wave trough and associated height falls across northern Ontario pushing the northern end of the cold front eastward. This short wave trough will clip Lake Superior this afternoon/evening before moving east. Portion of the cold front closest to the U. High pressure builds into the upper Midwest tonight and Saturday. with a weak ridge extending east into the upper Lakes though the overall pressure gradient is expected to be pretty weak. Another short wave trough will be arriving from the northwest by Saturday evening.
350 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 Temperatures will gradually warm this weekend as high pressure overspreads the area. Expect near freezing temperatures along the I-95 corridor again with upper 30s near the coast where winds may remain around 5 knots. A developing coastal trough will spur the development of an offshore low on Saturday, well away from our land and offshore forecast zones. Temperatures will be closer to normal on Saturday with highs in the low 70s. Coastal trough stays far enough offshore to zero out any chances along the mainland. Meanwhile, stagnant high pressure just to the west continues to moderate the airmass in place. Maybe the most interesting feature here is how the inland high pressure and the offshore coastal trough interact to create a decent temperature gradient for the overnight low temperatures.
Otherwise, a mostly dry and mild weekend is expected, with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s, which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
Satellite imagery shows a current trough aloft, with an advancing ridge to the west. This advancing ridge has the potential to give some of our area more precipitation.
Upper ridge looks to strengthen tonight and shift east across Idaho during the day Saturday ahead of this stronger low.
This system is as warm as the previous, if not slightly warmer, and snow levels will rise back above 7000 feet.
* Warmer temperatures Saturday. This activity will translate down the trough and could move over portions of central SD over the next few hours. Otherwise, high pressure is building in from the north at the sfc. Upper ridging builds in from the west on Saturday drawing in waa from the southwest.
Considering the mixing down of dry air aloft, I once again ran on the low side of guidance for dewpoints. Temperatures could be close to freezing in some areas where the frost/freeze program is still active, and a Frost Advisory has been issued in areas were frost formation is most likely (from Troup county as far east as Warren county and as far northeast as Banks county) from 2 AM until 10 AM on Saturday morning. Broad mid level troughing will remain in place over the eastern CONUS into Saturday.
Overall weather conditions through Saturday will be mild, with temperatures running about 10 degrees above average and light winds for the lower elevations.
333 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 High pressure will keep conditions mainly dry, though a frontal boundary will bring a couple rounds of scattered showers to north Central New York this weekend.
111 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 High pressure will keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend, though a frontal boundary will bring a couple rounds of scattered showers to Central New York this weekend.
155 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the Southeast states to the Mid Atlantic Coast through Saturday.
Any sprinkles or showers will taper from west to east overnight as the mid-level forcing and moisture peels east and winds turn northerly behind the passage of a weak cold front.
This is already evident today, as temperatures are on pace to climb to near seasonal normals, with highs in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s areawide.
For Saturday, the passage of a cold front will usher in northerly winds as high pressure settles over the region.
This will result in a continuation of moderating low temperatures and warmer afternoons.
* A cold front will usher in more seasonable air Thu-Fri. This trough is progged to continue moving southeastward over the Northern Plains tonight, helping to drive a cold front south across the area through early Saturday.
However, model soundings depict plenty of dry air in the low levels to limit much of anything reaching the ground through the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon.
Forcing associated with a weakening cold front will bring scattered light rain showers mainly north to northwest of KGRR later this morning through the afternoon as suggested by latest sref pops. Fair wx will return after fropa and through the day Saturday as a high pressure builds in from the northwest. Zonal flow will transition to more of a troughy pattern over the Great Lakes by the end of the week.
- Key message over the next 48 hours will be a cold front briefly moving into southwest Kansas which will result in +90% chance for a brief cool down Saturday (around 5F cooler).
351 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 Elongated high pressure remains over the area through Saturday.
1119 AM MDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A low amplitude mid-level trough will slide southeastward across the northern Rockies just clipping the northernmost mountains of Colorado today. A transitory ridge approaches from the west tonight and will pass over the forecast area on Saturday. Consequently, expect dry and mild conditions with decreased clouds until high clouds move over the north late in the day as the next short wave trough moves over the Northwest and northern Great Basin.
Temps could run a bit warmer than forecast given the expected decrease in cloud cover, however opted not to stray too far from the most recent NBM output given the meager boundary layer mixing shown in model sounding data.
As the weak front moves through, high temperatures tomorrow compared to today will be slightly cooler with northerly sfc flow.
It has been a comfortable fall day across the Florida Keys, with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points near 70 degrees.
300 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A weakening cold front will bring an increase in cloud cover to start the weekend.
201 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 High pressure at the surface will remain in control through the short term forecast period. An upper trough is apparent both in forecast guidance and water vapor imagery near and just west of the ArkLaMiss this afternoon. This trough is progressing through a very dry air mass and despite the lift is unlikely to result in more than some thin cirrus at best through tonight. On the back side of the departing upper trough, skies will remain clear under increased subsidence aloft allowing for full sun and a quick rebound in temperatures on Saturday.
1132 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the Southeast states to the Mid Atlantic Coast through Saturday.
The Winter Weather Advisory for Northern Blaine and Hill Counties was cancelled earlier, shortly after 7AM MDT, as the threat for widespread freezing rain had largely ended there. VIS and/or CIGS of LIFR/IFR conditions at the KHVR terminal are expected to improve to VFR no later than 19z this afternoon with the arrival of increasing southwest, which will help to mix out the low level moisture currently supporting the fog/stratus. Snow levels will be quite high (above 8000 ft) with this system, limiting snow the highest peaks.
642 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 High pressure at the surface will remain in control through the short term forecast period. An upper trough is apparent both in forecast guidance and water vapor imagery near and just west of the ArkLaMiss this afternoon. This trough is progressing through a very dry air mass and despite the lift is unlikely to result in more than some thin cirrus at best through tonight. On the back side of the departing upper trough, skies will remain clear under increased subsidence aloft allowing for full sun and a quick rebound in temperatures on Saturday.
Currently - A surface through lower tropospheric ridge remains entrenched across the southeastern United States. A band of enhanced lower level moisture associated with an old frontal boundary is now draped from the northern Bahamas to western Cuba and paints the western flank of a subtle lower level trough. Short Term Update - Winds are expected to continue to trend gradually downwards through the overnight period as the pressure gradient within the southern flank of the previously mentioned ridge relaxes. Guidance suggests that the lower level trough will encroach further into the Keys through the overnight period. High pressure centered over the southeastern United States will remain through the overnight period.
654 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) An upper level ridging pattern setting up tonight with the passing of the weak upper level disturbance, will maintain tranquil weather conditions tonight. Temperatures will be slightly warmer with the lows expected to range between the low to mid 50s for areas north of I-10 (upper 40s to low 50s over the Piney Woods area), the upper 50s to low 60s for areas south of I-10, and the mid to upper 60s along the coasts. With the dewpoints rising, they may end up a degree or two less than the low temperature in some spots from late tonight into Saturday morning, which may result in areas of patchy fog developing during that timeframe.
(Rest of tonight) A weak mid-level disturbance embedded within the subtropical jet will shift eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico overnight, as an amplifying northern stream trough digs southeastward across the northern High Plains. A ribbon of widespread mid/high-level cloudiness extending well downstream from the trough should largely remain north of the local CWFA overnight, even as winds aloft back to the west and strengthen into the 25-35 knot range. Thus, we are expecting another night of strong radiational cooling across the TN Valley, with lows adjusted to reflect 33-37F in outlying communities, and 37-41F in urban locations and atop the Cumberland Plateau (lows will be even a few degrees warmer than this range in the immediate vicinity of large bodies of water).
High pressure will continue to deliver above average daytime temperatures, light winds, and dry conditions through Saturday.
733 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 High pressure continues across the local area as an area of low pressure develops over the western mid-Atlantic through Saturday.
Otherwise, a mostly dry and mild weekend is expected, with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s. A weak area of low pressure was analyzed over southeast IA early this evening. Thus most of the radar returns are virga, with the higher reflectivity resulting in sprinkles and a few light showers. The cold front slowly moves across the CWA late tonight through daybreak, veering south winds to northwest. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s, which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
708 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 Prolonged period of strong northeasterly winds continues due to tight gradient influenced by robust high pressure to the north and coastal troughing over the local Atlantic waters. In addition to the gusty winds, convergent bands of showers associated with the inverted trough will push inland but gradually shift southward through the evening and the nighttime hours as flow backs to the north and advects in a drier airmass. Drier sinking in from the north will clear skies across southeast GA tonight and allow temps to fall into the low to mid 40s.
744 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the Southeast states to the Mid Atlantic Coast through Saturday.
806 PM MDT Fri Nov 3 2023 EVENING UPDATE (8 PM MDT): Given the low ceilings and reduced visibility observed on MDT cameras in many areas along the river valleys of the Milk and the Missouri and other lowland areas, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for southeast Phillips, Valley, Roosevelt, Daniels, Sheridan, McCone, Dawson, and Richland Counties in effect from 6 PM MDT tonight through 10 AM MDT Friday.
This could keep temps down a few degrees north of I-40, closer to readings seen this afternoon, while locations to the south should rise into the lower to mid 70s tomorrow. A stray shower or two could also accompany the trough across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Saturday night, but this system will generally be non-impactful across the area.
528 PM MDT Fri Nov 3 2023 EVENING UPDATE: Given the low ceilings and reduced visibility observed on MDT cameras in many areas along the river valleys of the Milk and the Missouri and other lowland areas, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for southeast Phillips, Valley, Roosevelt, Daniels, Sheridan, McCone, Dawson, and Richland Counties in effect from 6 PM MDT tonight through 10 AM MDT Friday.
736 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the Southeast states to the Mid Atlantic Coast through Saturday.
618 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A weakening cold front will bring an increase in cloud cover to start the weekend.
(Now through Saturday) Heavenly fall weather will persist through the period with deep upper level troughing over most of the eastern US. Expect the cooler conditions to prevail with no rain chances and most clouds keep well offshore. Temperatures will continue to be cooler with lows remaining in the low to mid 40s tonight.
With temperatures at the top of the saturated layer warmer then -10 degrees Celsius and surface temperatures below freezing, there does appear to be a potential for a few hours of light freezing drizzle at most locations from northwest into north central North Dakota later this evening into early Saturday morning. Therefore, we have only introduced a 20 percent chance of freezing drizzle into the forecast for now. If freezing drizzle does develop, untreated surfaces could quickly become slick. Tonight, temperatures should stay warmer across most of the area with the nice blanket of stratus clouds and fog again. Northwest flow will continue through Saturday afternoon when the ridge axis moves through.
Lows will be warmer than last night though falling into the mid 30s to lower 40s.
939 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 Temperatures cool on track, having already fallen into the low to mid 50s as of the 02Z hour, bottoming out in the upper 30s and lower 40s northeast to mid to upper 40s southwest. This is already evident today, as temperatures are on pace to climb to near seasonal normals, with highs in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s areawide.
A couple layers of clouds may linger on Saturday, some stratocumulus in the lower levels and patches of altostratus, though with any luck some partial sunshine will be present. Surface cold front moves though overnight with some moisture to work with as precipitable water values briefly spike up to about 0. Zonal flow will transition to more of a troughy pattern over the Great Lakes by the end of the week.
956 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 Another cold night shaping up this evening after highs today reached the lower to mid 60s. At mid evening the temperatures were in the 40s with calm winds and expected to drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s by early morning Saturday, slightly warmer than this mornings lows. Saturday should be similar to today but a couple degrees warmer in the south. The low RH values for tomorrow afternoon will be highlighted in the FWF.
743 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 Aviation Surface cold front moves though overnight with some moisture to work with as precipitable water values briefly spike up to about 0. Zonal flow will transition to more of a troughy pattern over the Great Lakes by the end of the week.
518 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) Warming trend will continue into Saturday as a weak upper level ridge builds into the region.
1025 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the Southeast states to the Mid Atlantic Coast through Saturday.