Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Arctic air returns to the region Thursday as a strong cold front moves through the area during the day on Thursday. The burst of Arctic air will be brief, with southerly winds already bringing warmer air into the region by Friday afternoon.
Key Messages: -An arctic cold front moving through SD this morning will arrive in nrn Nebraska before sunrise and srn Nebraska shortly after sunrise. An arctic cold front moving through SD this morning will arrive in nrn Nebraska before sunrise and srn Nebraska shortly after sunrise. This forecast is several degrees cooler than the NBM 50th percentile and the guidance blend. The short term model blend backed by the SREF and HREF suggest areas of fog forming along a developing warm front tonight. The short term model blend suggested highs in the 30s to around 40 Friday and this is slightly cooler than the NBM 50th percentile. The warm front should be east of wrn Nebraska but there is concern the front could still be moving through ncntl Nebraska Friday.
Winds continue to diminish quickly as the cold front moves further into central and southern South Dakota, but some breezy conditions will stick around for the next few hours. Early this morning, an arctic cold front continues to push south through the Northern Plains, now located over northern South Dakota. Behind the arctic front we will see another round of frigid lows this morning, ranging from the lower 20s below zero across the northeast to around zero southwest. The center of high pressure quickly moves into Minnesota by tonight with increasing clouds from west to east in advance of an approaching warm front from Montana. A warm front will move into the west on Friday, which will signal the start of a warming trend.
306 AM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 It's another chilly morning today, with the caveat of the foothills and adjacent far western plains where a lingering downsloping breeze has maintained milder temperatures just a few degrees below freezing. In the high country, satellite imagery depicts a tongue of low clouds straddling the Continental Divide and areas just west, courtesy of remnant moisture under the northwesterly flow aloft. For today, expect milder conditions as a ridging pattern begins to encroach on the state and skies remain clear. Given ~2-3C of warming at 700mb, continued subsidence, clear skies, and yesterday's warmer temperatures, NBM seemed much too low, particularly for the urban corridor. A bit trickier to pinpoint the temperature trend for the high mountain valleys.
High temps Fri will only rebound to 5-11F as polar high pressure shifts east across srn WI for the afternoon and early evening hours.
Light rain is occuring across much of the area this morning, with some light freezing rain over the extreme Northwest Delta. As temperatures climb above freezing over the Delta by mid morning, the light freezing rain will become all rain. The rain will continue into tonight, before beginning to taper off from northwest to southeast, as the main upper trough axis moves across the area.
334 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 Key Messages: -An arctic cold front moving through SD this morning will arrive in nrn Nebraska before sunrise and srn Nebraska shortly after sunrise. An arctic cold front moving through SD this morning will arrive in nrn Nebraska before sunrise and srn Nebraska shortly after sunrise. This forecast is several degrees cooler than the NBM 50th percentile and the guidance blend. The short term model blend backed by the SREF and HREF suggest areas of fog forming along a developing warm front tonight. The short term model blend suggested highs in the 30s to around 40 Friday and this is slightly cooler than the NBM 50th percentile. The warm front should be east of wrn Nebraska but there is concern the front could still be moving through ncntl Nebraska Friday.
High pressure building over the region will result in a quick warmup starting today through the weekend.
The good news is that as of 09z, subfreezing temperatures have retreated to areas of SW AR, SE OK and extreme NE TX and those temperatures are generally right at the freezing mark. Kept the expiration time as 9 am with any additional ice accumulations less than a tenth of an inch, but more likely near trace amounts before temperatures warm above freezing. Concerning the Flood Watch, upper level trough is currently entering the Tx Hill Country and will continue slowly ejecting out into the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley through tonight. Temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 30s/near 40 degrees today followed by overnight low temperatures falling to below freezing across our northwest half, well after precipitation has exited the region.
However, with temperatures progged to remain above the freezing mark for the remainder of the morning, no impacts will be felt and thus we will allow the Winter Weather Advisory to expire at 9 AM as planned. Deep southwesterly flow aloft will increase heading into the afternoon and our surface temperatures should respond and climb into the low to mid 40s by the afternoon. A cold front will sweep into the region this afternoon as well and we'll likely have a period of widespread (100%) moderate rain showers.
Otherwise VFR through 08Z, then will watch for sea fog tonight being blown onshore ahead of a cold front which will bring showers to the Tampa Bay area by 18Z Friday. After some early morning fog another beautiful winter day is expected across the area as high pressure east of the Bahamas holds on. Tonight into Friday a cold front will approach and move across the region preceded and accompanied by showers and a few thunderstorms. Breezy northwest to north winds behind the boundary will usher in a cooler drier airmass for late Friday and Friday night as high pressure builds in from the north.
Dry conditions will prevail and a warming trend will continue across the area today with high pressure pushing inland through the region.
915 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 The forecast remains on track this morning as a deep ridge of high pressure remains in place over the Florida Peninsula. (Today through Friday) Conditions for the start of the short term period will continue to be dry and sunny thanks to a deep ridge of high pressure extending across the Florida peninsula. The influence of this trough will allow for a low-level mass response that features veering winds out of the south-southwest allowing for persistent warm air advection to be realized over South Florida through Friday.
625 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 Seasonable temperatures are forecast today as high pressure moves off to the east. A colder airmass will spread into the Ohio Valley tonight into Friday as a cold front moves through the region. A cold front will push southeast across our area tonight, ushering in a much cooler airmass heading into Friday.
Key Messages: * Cold front moves through this morning.
257 AM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 Across the Tri State region this morning, skies are clear with high pressure over the Plains region. Temperatures are ranging in the teens west into the lower 20s east, and winds are westerly around 10 mph. This ridge will be in place over the area Friday, right into the first half of the weekend. At the surface, high pressure over the cwa will give way to a backdoor cold front that pushes south and east into the area.
Ridge will move east today as the incoming trough approaches. The system looks like it will be a relatively low-impact one for interior NorCal as the trough stretches as it moves into the ridge tonight and Friday with much of the energy going north of the region. Significant snow accumulations will likely be limited to the higher peaks in the northern mountains.
(Today through Friday Night ) Extensive plume of moisture ahead of a SW US trough continues this morning with precip streaming from south Texas northeastward into the Ohio Valley. With sfc temperatures remaining around or just below freezing, nearly all of this precip locally is falling as FZRA. Marginally freezing temps in the 30-32 F range have been in place overnight across the southeast half of the state where the majority of the precip has occurred. While FZRA has been widespread and moderate to heavy at times, road impacts have remained primarily limited to bridges/overpasses. H500 trough located to the SW will continue to push east of the area by Friday morning. With NW flow in place and sfc ridging just north of the region, cool temperatures and dry conditions are expected through Friday night.
and Friday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a strong arctic cold front dropping southeast across South Dakota to western Lake Superior early this morning. Arctic high pressure will be sliding just southwest of the region.
556 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 (Today and tonight) As of 2 AM, the final bout of light freezing rain was making steady progress east from the southern South Plains and into the Rolling Plains. This axis of precip coincided with favorable ascent ahead of a positively tilted trough axis bisecting the CWA. Behind the trough axis, deep subsidence and clearing skies already in our NW zones will sweep east and allow temps to finally rebound into the 40s and 50s under full sun. Temps remain on track to edge above freezing region wide by 9-10 AM, so will leave the expiration times alone. Radiational cooling gears up tonight as dry surface ridging expands south on light northerly winds under continued clear skies.
549 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 (Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Warmer Today - Isolated to scattered showers will end by this afternoon Light rain across the area overnight will continue to diminish from west to east this morning as isentropic lift is replaced by downglide and an upper disturbance moves eastward of the region. Southwesterly flow aloft today will be replaced by weak ridging tomorrow. Highs today will range in the 50s under clearing skies and tonight lows will be similar to last night near freezing to around 40 degrees as partly cloudy skies will lead to more efficient radiational cooling.
At 2 AM, a weak trough was rotating through the Northern Plains. Today and Tonight: The cold front in South Dakota will surge southward through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa between 5 AM and 10 AM. Behind the front gusty north winds will develop as high pressure builds into the region.
A cold front finally slides south tonight and will be across northern Alabama by sunrise. Mostly light rain expected through the morning hours, but heavier showers will develop through the afternoon due to enhanced forcing from the approaching upper low and frontal boundary. Friday's temperatures will still be in the low 40s across the north but the spread will not be as high with only upper 50s expected in the south.
High pressure will move across the area through Friday morning, bringing a warming trend to most locations as northern Utah valley inversions strengthen.
502 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 (Today and tonight) A mid and upper level trough to our west, will move across the southern Plains today. This will result in areas of light freezing rain, mainly across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas this morning. By noon, the northwest 1/2 of Oklahoma should see abundant sunshine with temperatures well above freezing. Early this evening, a cold front will move into northern Oklahoma and will push across a majority of the state by early Friday morning.
403 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 Satellite imagery early this morning is showing high cirrus streaming across the area in west southwest upper flow at the same time a trough is dropping south out of Canada. Latest runs of the NAM/GFS continue to show the upper trough dropping southeast through the Midwest and Great Lakes today with the attendant cold front moving through the CWA this afternoon. This will be a dry frontal passage as there will be weak ascent associated with the upper trough and the atmosphere will be exceptionally dry with not much clouds expected.
Continued warming to more seasonable temperatures is expected through Friday as a high pressure ridge sits over the region.
A cold front will pass across western Kansas this morning. Snow covered areas of Scott and Lane counties will be cooler, with 30s for highs.
The mean-level ridge that has been parked across the region for the past few days is slowly transiting eastward, but is still in charge of our sensible weather. Dewpoints are in the lower 70s, making for an unusually muggy start to this early February morning. The aforementioned mean-layer ridging will be responsible for at least one more day of warm weather and near nil rain chances. The robust ridge will finally be nudged far enough eastward to allow for a weak cold front to move through the Keys tomorrow evening, then stall across the Florida Straits on Friday night. Have kept slight thunder chances for the Lower Keys and the western portion of the Middle Keys for Friday afternoon to account for this possibility.
400 AM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 Updated Aviation High pressure building over the region will result in continued dry conditions with a warming trend to above normal going into the weekend.
High pressure over the area will provide dry conditions along with warming temperatures into the weekend.
The cold temperatures will continue diving south, meaning a handful of places are currently at their high temperature for the day and locales further south won't get much warmer than where they currently sit. Well above normal temperatures are expected through the at least the first half of the week with broad ridging in place.
647 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 Wedge conditions will remain over the area today with a cold front moving into the area this evening.
A ridge of high pressure will remain in place over the region into Friday morning, bringing a brief dry period. The ridge will flatten later Friday as a low pressure system moves along the Pacific northwest coast. While precipitation amounts with this wave overall will be relatively light, a wintry mix of rain, snow and freezing rain is possible for valleys.
(Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Warmer Today - Isolated to scattered showers will end by this afternoon Light rain across the area overnight will continue to diminish from west to east this morning as isentropic lift is replaced by downglide and an upper disturbance moves eastward of the region. Southwesterly flow aloft today will be replaced by weak ridging tomorrow. Highs today will range in the 50s under clearing skies and tonight lows will be similar to last night near freezing to around 40 degrees as partly cloudy skies will lead to more efficient radiational cooling.
430 AM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 It's another chilly morning today, with the caveat of the foothills and adjacent far western plains where a lingering downsloping breeze has maintained milder temperatures just a few degrees below freezing. In the high country, satellite imagery depicts a tongue of low clouds straddling the Continental Divide and areas just west, courtesy of remnant moisture under the northwesterly flow aloft. For today, expect milder conditions as a ridging pattern begins to encroach on the state and skies remain clear. Given ~2-3C of warming at 700mb, continued subsidence, clear skies, and yesterday's warmer temperatures, NBM seemed much too low, particularly for the urban corridor. A bit trickier to pinpoint the temperature trend for the high mountain valleys.
150 AM PST Thu Feb 2 2023 Temperatures will continue to rebound to near season averages as high pressure briefly builds across the region. Valley inversions will persist today which will allow for areas of low stratus and freezing fog around Mono Lake and in fog prone valleys in the Sierra.
407 AM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 Across the Tri State region this morning, skies are clear with high pressure over the Plains region. Temperatures are ranging in the teens west into the lower 20s east, and winds are westerly around 10 mph. This ridge will be in place over the area Friday, right into the first half of the weekend. At the surface, high pressure over the cwa will give way to a backdoor cold front that pushes south and east into the area.
610 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 (Today through Friday) Conditions for the start of the short term period will continue to be dry and sunny thanks to a deep ridge of high pressure extending across the Florida peninsula. The influence of this trough will allow for a low-level mass response that features veering winds out of the south-southwest allowing for persistent warm air advection to be realized over South Florida through Friday.
521 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 (Today through Friday Night ) Extensive plume of moisture ahead of a SW US trough continues this morning with precip streaming from south Texas northeastward into the Ohio Valley. With sfc temperatures remaining around or just below freezing, nearly all of this precip locally is falling as FZRA. Marginally freezing temps in the 30-32 F range have been in place overnight across the southeast half of the state where the majority of the precip has occurred. While FZRA has been widespread and moderate to heavy at times, road impacts have remained primarily limited to bridges/overpasses. H500 trough located to the SW will continue to push east of the area by Friday morning. With NW flow in place and sfc ridging just north of the region, cool temperatures and dry conditions are expected through Friday night.
534 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 (Today through Friday) A mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and even a little bit of snow this morning across Middle Tennessee will gradually give way to light rain showers this afternoon as temperatures rise into the upper 30s to around 40.
456 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 Satellite imagery early this morning is showing high cirrus streaming across the area in west southwest upper flow at the same time a trough is dropping south out of Canada. Latest runs of the NAM/GFS continue to show the upper trough dropping southeast through the Midwest and Great Lakes today with the attendant cold front moving through the CWA this afternoon. This will be a dry frontal passage as there will be weak ascent associated with the upper trough and the atmosphere will be exceptionally dry with not much clouds expected.
211 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 A sharp cold front will bring a quick shot of very cold air to our region tonight and Friday.
The CWA will be on the west side of the upper troughing pattern, which will keep northwest flow in place. In fact, most places will likely see highs only warming into the low to mid 30s.
100 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 An arctic cold front will provide scattered snow showers and much colder temperatures late tonight into Friday. Dry weather and a warming trend is then expected through the weekend under high pressure.
1258 PM PST Thu Feb 2 2023 Dry conditions and warmer temperatures will continue across the region today through tonight and tomorrow morning. A weak trough will move through the area tomorrow morning and bring light rain to our northern county warning area alongside region wide cloud cover.
(The rest of this afternoon ) Have allowed the headlines to expire as most places are warming to just above freezing at this time.
A strong cold front will drop south through the region late tonight.
Rain chances in the short term are coming to an end as the coastal trough has filled and is no longer an influence. Upper 50s to mid 60s will be the highs on Friday under a fair amount (finally) of sunshine. Friday night will again be on the cooler side with mid 30s to mid and upper 40s.
With ideal radiational cooling expected overnight, there is a slim (< 10%) potential for shallow freezing fog over mainly the eastern Permian Basin overnight. Lows in the 20s to the lower 30s are forecast from north to south. Highs tomorrow will range from the 40s at higher elevations of the Davis Mountains to the lower 60s along the Rio Grande.
A cold front is located to the north of the area and will move into the region during the day tomorrow. The main forcing associated with the front and trough will be displaced to the north and expect the rainfall associated with this system will be light.
1133 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 (Today and tonight) As of 2 AM, the final bout of light freezing rain was making steady progress east from the southern South Plains and into the Rolling Plains. This axis of precip coincided with favorable ascent ahead of a positively tilted trough axis bisecting the CWA. Behind the trough axis, deep subsidence and clearing skies already in our NW zones will sweep east and allow temps to finally rebound into the 40s and 50s under full sun. Temps remain on track to edge above freezing region wide by 9-10 AM, so will leave the expiration times alone. Radiational cooling gears up tonight as dry surface ridging expands south on light northerly winds under continued clear skies.
Meanwhile, the first cold front was pushing into our nw counties and will sweep across the cwa this afternoon. Ahead of the front with a notable warmer start (24 hr temp change 10-20 degrees over yesterday AM) as a launch pad, and abundant sunshine this morning and SW winds we should see a boost in temps well into the 30s to lower 40s in the light to no snow covered areas along/s of I-80, with 20s in the deeper snow cover north.
Temperatures range from 80 to 86, with dewpoints in the lower 70s. South Florida, Cuba, and the Keys are convectively suppressed as they sit beneath the large mean-layer ridge. The stationary boundary currently along the northern Gulf Coast will invigorate as it slides in-tandem with the lower heights aloft. By Friday afternoon, a cold frontal boundary will be draped across Central Florida, with lower heights aloft and southwesterly low-level steering taking shape across the Keys. Nevertheless, we have held onto our thunder chances along and in the lee of the Lower Keys.
Areas of clearing have moved into the northern portions of northeast OK with temperatures jumping into the low 40s. For southeast OK temperatures are still hovering right around freezing.
Late morning temperatures were above freezing for most of Middle Tennessee. The skies will "brighten" as the lower thicker clouds start to move out this afternoon. This will allow temperatures to recover to the lower 40s area wide. Look for most of the clouds to break up tonight as a reinforcing shot of cold air drops temps to the lower 20s. (Today through Friday) A mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and even a little bit of snow this morning across Middle Tennessee will gradually give way to light rain showers this afternoon as temperatures rise into the upper 30s to around 40.
(This evening through Friday) 500 MB trough axis will move eastward across the northern Gulf Coast tonight and into GA/SC Friday. High pressure will be in control Friday night as subsidence results in mostly clear skies. The influence of weak ridging will nudge temperatures back to near normal throughout the weekend.
304 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 * Arctic cold front to pass through this evening. An Arctic cold front stretches from central Michigan back into northern Illinois and southwestward to near the Kansas City metro area this afternoon. While the low level flow orientation suggests that lake enhanced cloudiness will make its way into the northeastern third to half of the area, a significant lack of moisture suggests that any lake effect snowfall should dissipate prior to crossing into northeastern portions of central Indiana, and will maintain a dry forecast throughout the short term.
Lows will reach the low 30s for our northernmost counties, the mid-30s for counties south of Huntsville, and then the upper 30s to low 40s around I-10 and towards the coast. Miss the sun? High pressure pushing in from the north on Friday will help to quickly clear skies, starting from the northwest to the southeast with partly cloudy skies expected for all of SOutheast Texas by lunchtime on Friday. The return of sunshine also means daytime highs will get a chance to warm up and reach the low to mid 50s.