Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Sunday could be the warmest day of the coming week before cooler/unsettled pattern moves in for several days. A few showers may arrive late Sunday night as positive tilt upr longwave trough approaches and the deeper moisture arrives.
Weak high pressure will then return, before a cold front crosses the area mid week. Troughing will prevail over the east coast as a mid-level trough extends southward from the Great Lakes into the southeastern states. At the surface a stationary front has been analyzed over the SC upstate, with an associated inverted trough extending northward along the Appalachian Mountains. With cloud cover and precipitation a slightly cooler day is forecast, especially across southeastern SC, where high temperatures are forecast to only reach into the mid 80s.
153 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 A cold front will become nearly stationary over Northern and Western PA today into Sunday.
1212 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 (Today and tonight) Quiet weather is expected for a majority of today under the influence of an upper ridge centered over southern AZ/NM.
Tomorrow sees the upper level ridge continue to weaken and inch westward allowing flow aloft to shift more northwesterly.
1204 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 (Today through Sunday) Upper ridging centered near the Arizona-New Mexico border this morning, with an upper trough extending from western Kentucky to Florida. At the surface, high pressure extended from the Canadian Prairie Provinces into the Great Lakes. With the cooler conditions and longer nights, there are a few patches of reduced visibilities due to light radiation fog. The portion of the upper trough over western Kentucky this morning will shift southeastward to eastern Tennessee by Sunday evening.
Amid the dry conditions, temperatures tonight should be cooler than normal with 60s areawide. Pressure gradient should ease as the trough begins to lift north, limiting gusty winds. Behind this system, a broad trough extending from the Rockies to the northeastern seaboard is expected to dig into the Lower Mississippi Valley region.
256 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 An upper low to the south of central Indiana continues to bring weak lift to the area. Drier air will also try to work in from the north as the upper low continues to move off to the south. Isolated shower coverage should also diminish from north to south this afternoon as the forcing moves south with the upper low. Fewer clouds and light winds will allow temperatures to be cooler than previous nights, with lows in the middle to upper 50s expected. High pressure will rule on Sunday.
Drier air is under cutting some of that activity and confidence isn't high in measurable precipitation along the Highway 2 corridor. Otherwise, a cold front moving through the area will bring low chances for showers within Minnesota this afternoon.
1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 (Today through Sunday Night ) A closed upper low centered over the lower OH River Valley region early this Sat morning will continue to rotate south by this afternoon.
147 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 A slow moving upper low, trapped between Atlantic and Plains upper ridging is still parked about where it was this time yesterday. Stronger convergence at the jet level moves in by mid to late morning Sunday which may help squash some of the cloud cover and give us a slightly warmer day, by 2 to 3 degrees on Sunday.
Meanwhile, an upper level low pressure area over the Ohio Valley will drift southeast toward the Southern Appalachians as it slowly weakens. The Southern Appalachian upper low will continue to weaken as it transitions into an open wave and shears NE toward WVA and PA. Highs in the lower 80s NW ranging into the upper 80s SE.
High pressure over the area will result in high temperatures running around 10 degrees hotter than average this weekend. Strong upper high centered between Tucson and El Paso this morning will bring near record to record high temperatures to SE AZ with the western half of the forecast area under an Excessive Heat Warning today which continues into Sunday. Dry conditions will prevail across most of southeast Arizona through the weekend, with Min RH values of 10-20 percent in the valleys and 17-27 percent in the higher elevations.
A slow moving upper low, trapped between Atlantic and Plains upper ridging is still parked about where it was this time yesterday. Stronger convergence at the jet level moves in by mid to late morning Sunday which may help squash some of the cloud cover and give us a slightly warmer day, by 2 to 3 degrees on Sunday.
254 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 Unsettled weather will accompany a cold front over the next few days, though no given day a washout.
645 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) Super Saturday going around here with air temps right around 90 degrees along and south of I-20 and cooler mid 80s for many locales northward. Dew points are wonderful in the low to mid 60s everywhere except still upper 60s in deep east TX.
This ridge will continue to move slowly southeastward over the next 24 hours. Lows are forecast to range from the low to mid 50s across a majority of the area. Highs are expected to climb back into the low 80s or right around normal.
Meanwhile, an upper level low pressure area over the Ohio Valley will drift southeast toward the Southern Appalachians as it slowly weakens. The 00Z upper air analyses show a low centered over the mid-MS/TN Valley region, with a trough extending southward through the Gulf Coast. The upper low and associated trough are expected to remain to the west of central NC, with continued moisture advection and periods of showers and storms across the area, through tonight. The Southern Appalachian upper low will continue to weaken as it transitions into an open wave and shears NE toward WVA and PA. Highs in the lower 80s NW ranging into the upper 80s SE.
935 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 Unsettled weather will accompany a cold front over the next few days, though no given day a washout.
742 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 A cold front will become nearly stationary over Northern and Western PA today into Sunday.
High pressure remains in place through much of the weekend with warm and dry conditions continuing. As the ridge shifts east early tomorrow, expect an approaching front to begin to spread some clouds into the area.
814 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 (Through Sunday) The presence of a weak upper level trough and a moderately unstable airmass is expected to lead to scattered convection this afternoon into early this evening.
(Now through Sunday) An upper level trough continues to extend across much of the eastern CONUS this afternoon with a low centered in the vicinity of east central TN. A dry northwesterly flow pattern aloft will remain prevalent across our forecast area through tonight along the southwestern periphery of the upper trough axis, while light northerly surface flow also remains dominant tonight. The upper trough axis should continue to extend southwestward across AL and into the adjacent western central Gulf on Sunday.
748 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 A cold front will become nearly stationary over Northern and Western PA today into Sunday.
1001 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 A cold front will become nearly stationary over Northern and Western PA today into Sunday.
High pressure over the area will result in high temperatures running around 10 degrees hotter than average this weekend. The upper high responsible for the record heat today will slide into northern Mexico on Sunday with a little bit more moisture making it to the International border.
Key Messages: * Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, focused along a slow moving cold front crossing the region.
The ridge is also expected to weaken slightly further tomorrow, so will continue the slow cooling trend with highs mainly in the upper 90s to around 100 expected tomorrow. Cooler and wetter pattern to prevail through the end of the The upper ridge that has dominated our weather pattern for much of the summer will continue to drift south and west out of the area, leaving us in a more zonal to weak northwest flow regime for the start of the work week.
After the cumulus cloud line across the Lower Keys and showers in the Florida Bay and Upper Keys both dissipated, there has been only been a few brief showers in the Straits of Florida. Two main synoptic features continue to dominate CONUS; an expansive mean layer ridge in the southwestern U. and a mid to upper level trough across the eastern U. Moisture sampled on the 00Z sounding was just below normal for this time of year, but multiple layers of dry air were present in the lower levels, which have likely further suppressed convection.
757 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 The region will remain between high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes and a stalled front along the Appalachians through the rest of the weekend.
An upper low to the south of central Indiana continues to bring weak lift to the area. Drier air will also try to work in from the north as the upper low continues to move off to the south. Isolated shower coverage should also diminish from north to south this afternoon as the forcing moves south with the upper low. Fewer clouds and light winds will allow temperatures to be cooler than previous nights, with lows in the middle to upper 50s expected. High pressure will rule on Sunday.
1) Dry conditions will largely remain in place, with the exception for some isolated showers along the Highway 20 corridor late tonight 2) Seasonal temperatures remain in place An area of high pressure will remain anchored to the western Great Lakes region for the remainder of the day through tonight. The most likely areas to see any precipitation will be along the Highway 20 corridor, where there will be more favorable moisture. Seasonal temperatures will continue, with lows tonight in the lower to middle 50s and highs Sunday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
The area remains under the influence of surface ridging that extends from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley and into the Deep South this evening. Amid the dry conditions, temperatures tonight should be cooler than normal with 60s areawide. Pressure gradient should ease as the trough begins to lift north, limiting gusty winds. Behind this system, a broad trough extending from the Rockies to the northeastern seaboard is expected to dig into the Lower Mississippi Valley region.
1005 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 The region will remain between high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes and a stalled front along the Appalachians through the rest of the weekend.
637 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 (Rest of today through Sunday) An inverted trough has set up along the Appalachians and extends all the way into the Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures have hit the lower 80s in southern MN into western Wi where warm advection will continue this afternoon, but ongoing showers will limit high temperatures to the 60s/low 70s across western and central MN. A cooler, drier airmass filters into the upper Midwest behind the front tonight through Sunday, but the lingering cyclonic flow will mean that cloud cover and possibly a few showers will persist through Sunday, especially across western WI. Cooler temperatures persist into midweek as troughing digs in over the Great Lakes and a broad region of Canadian high pressure influences the sfc pattern across the upper Midwest.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 60s.
1049 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 A cold front will become nearly stationary over Northern and Western PA for Sunday.
High pressure will maintain dry conditions into Sunday.
An upper ridge will build over the region through Sunday for dry conditions, light winds, and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
840 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 Another quiet night across the Mid-South as an upper level low churns across central Tennessee. Additional cloud cover due to the proximity of the low should limit widespread fog this evening.
819 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 Unsettled weather will accompany a cold front over the next few days, though no given day a washout.
907 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 As of 9 PM CDT, dry and cool post-frontal conditions are in effect across the Four State Region with temperatures already in the low-to-mid 70s. Temperature minimums will fall into the low- to-mid 60s as result overnight. /16/ (This evening through Sunday Night) Super Saturday going around here with air temps right around 90 degrees along and south of I-20 and cooler mid 80s for many locales northward. Dew points are wonderful in the low to mid 60s everywhere except still upper 60s in deep east TX.
212 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Unsettled weather will accompany a cold front over the next few days, though no given day a washout.
138 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 The region will remain between high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes and a stalled front along the Appalachians through the rest of the weekend.
127 AM MDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Upper level trough will continue to push further east and southeast Sunday as the associated cold front follows with it. The surface boundary in its wake, more of a post-frontal trough, will continue to extend across the CWA northwest to southeast that will spark another round of more widely scattered rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms by early to mid afternoon Sunday.
(Today) Upper level ridging remained over the Desert SW and northern Mexico, with troughing over the eastern third of the Lower-48. An upper level low within this trough was situated over TN/KY per a mid and high altitude water vapor view. Temperatures were on the mild side, ranging in the lower 60s to around 70. A presence of a weak upper low within troughing over the region will allow for better broad scale lift to be realized later today. Given the location of the upper low as it tracks towards northern Alabama, the best chances for showers should be near and east of the I-65 corridor.
However, a robust upper level disturbance will be approaching the high plains this afternoon.
The front responsible for this welcome change was found stalled just south of I-20 and will gradually retreat NW tonight through Sunday as surface ridging exits to our east. Generally weak W-NW steering flow around an upper high in swrn NM should carry these storms to near the state line by sunset. Models agree in a favorable Theta-E ridge sharpening W-E this evening across the South Plains within a modest southeasterly LLJ, so this seems sufficient to maintain 30-40 PoPs on the Caprock through 06Z before activity dwindles as the LLJ veers and focuses better isentropic ascent farther north into the Panhandle. Aloft, weak NW flow will improve modestly through the day as ridging flattens and heights depress.
1142 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 Another quiet night across the Mid-South as an upper level low churns across central Tennessee. Additional cloud cover due to the proximity of the low should limit widespread fog this evening.
PoPs this afternoon will be S and E of KBIL, with the highest PoPs, 50-60%, over Sheridan County.
1242 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 As of 9 PM CDT, dry and cool post-frontal conditions are in effect across the Four State Region with temperatures already in the low-to-mid 70s. Temperature minimums will fall into the low- to-mid 60s as result overnight. /16/ (This evening through Sunday Night) Super Saturday going around here with air temps right around 90 degrees along and south of I-20 and cooler mid 80s for many locales northward. Dew points are wonderful in the low to mid 60s everywhere except still upper 60s in deep east TX.
152 AM MDT Sun Sep 10 2023 07z surface analysis had main front well south/southwest of the CWA with a trough from eastern MT into central WY. Water vapour loop had upper ridge centered over northwest Mexico with westerly flow aloft over the northern Rockies/Plains.
321 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Today's forecast is still on track to be tranquil with seasonable temperatures peaking in the low to mid-80s. These clouds will help keep nighttime low temperatures warmer than what we've been seeing, only falling into the upper 50s and low 60s as opposed to the mid-40s to mid-50s.
205 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Two weak waves embedded within the broader upper trough across the region.
118 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 (Through Sunday) The presence of a weak upper level trough and a moderately unstable airmass is expected to lead to scattered convection this afternoon into early this evening.
An upper trough continues to very slowly drift across the Tennessee River valley. The trough will lift later in the day with heights increasing over the Quad State, resulting in highs reaching the lower 80s today.
Tropospheric water vapor imagery continues to highlight a stagnant, split-ridge pattern for the Florida Keys. A stationary front remains entrenched across much of the East Coast, an area of high pressure extends over much of the North Atlantic, and another anticyclone is centered over the Southwest. A series of upper-level, mid-latitude troughs will progress through the East Coast over the next seven days, which will continue to disrupt any strong ridging across the Florida Peninsula.
307 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 The main forecast challenge in the short term remains cloud cover and resulting afternoon temperatures associated with a departing upper trough currently centered over the TN Valley. The lone exception to this will be areas generally west of the I-65 corridor where it could be mainly sunny as drier air in central IN begins to work in behind the departing upper trough. Where sunshine could break out later today highs will get into the low 80s.
447 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 A cold front will become nearly stationary over Northern and Western PA for Sunday.
Discussion: An upper level low continues to remain in place this morning. The region is on the southeastern side of high pressure that is located across the Midwest and Great Lakes with weak pressure troughing across East Tennessee. The upper low will begin to fill into an open wave and weaken through the afternoon and evening hours. Boundary layer heating underneath cooler mid level temperatures will lead to increasing CAPE values, with MLCAPEs reaching upwards of 1000 J/kg, slightly less than yesterday.
1244 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 The area remains under the influence of surface ridging that extends from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley and into the Deep South this evening. Amid the dry conditions, temperatures tonight should be cooler than normal with 60s areawide. Pressure gradient should ease as the trough begins to lift north, limiting gusty winds. Behind this system, a broad trough extending from the Rockies to the northeastern seaboard is expected to dig into the Lower Mississippi Valley region.
The high pressure has caused calm winds and clear skies.
340 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Overall look for another cooler day with a few showers and thunderstorms at times. Trapped moisture in a 700 mb ridge combined with vorticity advection from a 500 mb trough will bring periods of clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms today. Daytime showers should diminish this evening, with the upper level ridge nudging slightly westward.
Low temperatures across most of the area will be in the low to mid 60s, while the most southern portions of our region will be a tad bit warmer (around 70) as this boundary lifts back north.
Given that the environment will be more stable behind the aforementioned cold front, as well as weaker forcing parameters, they are not expected to be severe.
(Now through Monday) Upper level troughing across the eastern CONUS is in no hurry to move away. Temperatures remain seasonable with highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's today, perhaps a degree or two warmer for Monday.
High pressure to the north, as well as the back side of an upper trough is promoting northerly flow. A pressure gradient of about 3 mb across the area, thanks to high pressure, could result in some gustier winds, much like what was observed yesterday. Low temperatures across most of the area will be in the low to mid 60s, while the most southern portions of our region will be a tad bit warmer (around 70) as this boundary lifts back north.
We continue to be under a mid/upper level low, although it is transitioning from a closed low to an open wave with slow eastward progression. Discussion: An upper level low continues to remain in place this morning. The region is on the southeastern side of high pressure that is located across the Midwest and Great Lakes with weak pressure troughing across East Tennessee. The upper low will begin to fill into an open wave and weaken through the afternoon and evening hours. Boundary layer heating underneath cooler mid level temperatures will lead to increasing CAPE values, with MLCAPEs reaching upwards of 1000 J/kg, slightly less than yesterday.
By late afternoon, early evening, showers should be widespread to numerous across the high country, mostly east of the Divide, and adjacent plains through the urban corridor. As the trof exits, weak large scale subsidence and gradual drying moves into northern Colorado. Given the low level flow shifting weakly southeast and remaining strong inversions at 700mb, expect only scattered light rain showers with best coverage with some convergence remaining over the Front Range foothills as the best chance for continued measurable precipitation. Expect skies to clear Monday night under weak ridge of high pressure.
The cold front is making slow progress through the forecast area early this morning, extending from the southwestern NE/KS border, to along I80 in eastern NE and central IA.
612 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Two weak waves embedded within the broader upper trough across the region. The forecast begins with energy digging into the Great Lakes, with ridging over the Western High Plains.
Upper-level ridging will push eastwards today as a weak front enters. Cooler temperatures and even some light rain is expected for some this afternoon-evening.
623 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Today's forecast is still on track to be tranquil with seasonable temperatures peaking in the low to mid-80s. These clouds will help keep nighttime low temperatures warmer than what we've been seeing, only falling into the upper 50s and low 60s as opposed to the mid-40s to mid-50s. This feature will drive a cold front through the area on Monday. As of now, highs in the upper 60s are expected in northeast Missouri, warming to the low 80s in areas south of I-44 in Missouri and I-70 in Illinois.
Mid-level ridging upstream will break down slightly in the short term. High temps will be a degree or two cooler on Monday, with heat index values of 102 to 107 degrees.
A cold front will bring much cooler temperatures to the area today and Monday. A fall like week ahead temperature wise with highs mostly in the lower to mid 70s through the upcoming week. Otherwise it will be much cooler today behind a southward moving cold front. Highs today will be as much a 25-30 degrees cooler than yesterday across parts of the area. High temperatures will be mild, mostly in the lower to mid 70s, as a cold front stalls well to the south of the area along the Red River. This will keep up in the cooler airmass - which will gradually modify toward the end of the week when some upper 70s are possible.
High pressure over the area will result in high temperatures running around 10 degrees hotter than average again this afternoon.
A little cooler today, thunderstorms possible by late afternoon. The mid/upper ridge will continue to weaken over the area through tonight, as it shifts a bit farther south and west into northern Mexico. Consequently, temperatures will be a little cooler today, with afternoon highs ranging between 97 and 101 degrees. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s.