Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
221 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2023 The upper ridge over the region is flattening and shifting slightly eastward this afternoon in response to an upper low crossing the Canadian prairie provinces. At the surface, a weakly defined trough extends from eastern North Dakota across western South Dakota and Nebraska and into eastern Colorado. Some high based thunderstorms are already developing over, and moving off, the higher terrain to the southwest of the forecast area in Wyoming. Lower confidence exists with convective initiation over south central South Dakota as the surface boundary moves into that area, but have continued the low PoPs there in case convection is able to overcome the robust cap. For Thursday through next Wednesday, the forecast area will be toward the northern edge of the southern CONUS upper ridge.
1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 (Rest of Today) Temps are quickly rebounding from their earlier lows in the upper 60s/near 70F, with current reading climbing into the lower 80s for many spots. Another seasonably warm day is expected across the TN Valley this afternoon, with highs reaching the lower/mid 90s and max heat indices approaching the 100-104F range. The region itself remains sandwiched between an upper ridge pattern over the SW states and a weak upper ridge axis across the srn Atlantic Basin.
High pressure and upper-level ridging will prevail over the region today - resulting in mostly dry conditions through the evening. /NF/ Today and Tonight: Continued dry with warmer than normal afternoon highs today and near normal morning lows tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a 1020mb high ridging to the southwest across our CWA from the southern Appalachians. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a large 598dam high centered just southeast of the Four Corners region and ridging east across our CWA. This ridging surface and aloft will continue to limit rain chances and allow for a gradual warming trend. Under mostly clear skies and a near calm wind again tonight, temperatures will bottom back into the lower 70s by morning.
Weak upper trough over the Gulf coast area extending northeast into the area with a weak vorticity trough extending into the Midlands. Mainly high clouds streaming north associated with vorticity trough. Models appear a little warmer tonight but stayed with the low to mid 70s persistence forecast. Upper ridging will continue to strengthen across the area into Thursday and while deep moisture will marginally increase, warming aloft will once again limit convective chances. HiRes guidance generally favors isolated convection mainly developing along the higher terrain to the NW and along the sea breeze but little over our area.
258 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 This Afternoon through Tomorrow: High pressure and upper-level ridging will prevail over the region today into tomorrow - resulting in mostly dry conditions through at least tomorrow morning.
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
An inverted trough will approach and move across the area tonight through Thursday night increasing our rainfall potential along the Coast and over the Victoria Crossroads.
(This evening through Thursday night) A slight weakening of the 500mb high pressure center continues to track across a majority of the models for today and tomorrow. On the side of more active weather, the weakening of the ridge does provide better chances for afternoon showers developing off the Southern Rockies to move into the northwestern portion of the Panhandles.
The 500mb ridge across the southwest United States and northwest Texas will continue to provide strong subsidence across west central Texas tonight through Thursday.
/NEW/ /Afternoon Through Through Thursday/ A broad, yet stout and strong (near 600 decameter) upper high will remain centered west of the area near the Four Corners/Desert SW regions, but it's grip will maintain well east over our area. These areas may see a 1-2 hour drop during the pre-dawn hours into the lower-mid 70s. The mid-level ridge will remain the predominate feature locally and keep the stagnant weather pattern in-place through the weekend.
(This evening through Thursday) An ~600 dam 500 mb ridge centered across New Mexico will continue to be the primary influence on the weather across the Southern Plains.
Otherwise, the area remains sandwiched between an upper ridge pattern over the SW states and a weak upper ridge axis layered across the srn Atlantic Basin. Otherwise, current temps are near seasonal trends for this time of the yr, with readings mainly in the lower 90s/near 90F for most spots. With quiet wx ahead this evening, overnight lows look to fall into the lower 70s/near 70F.
(The rest of today) A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the pattern for today across much of the Plains. Besides the heat, a remnant MCV from overnight convection across the High Plains is currently working its way through southern Kansas and a few spotty showers are noted on radar where the impulse is interacting with an area of warm advection within a strong low level jet max. The steady weakening of the low level jet will limit support for continued development further east across our area, though some mid level cloud cover could keep high temps down a degree or two for some locations this afternoon along the Kansas border.
The main cold front arrive later tonight into Thursday morning.
Showers, thunderstorms and cloud cover along this line have kept high temperatures slightly cooler than previously forecasted with highs in the 90s.
1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 The main challenge for the short term for this forecast cycle will be the location/progression of an incoming trough over Northern Kansas. An upper level ridge is still in place over Western Kansas and into the Colorado which will keep temperatures about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. The main issues with the continuation of this higher heat will be the orientation of the incoming weak front from the west and the where the convective debris will be located during the day. That said, areas just to the south of trough/front could see come atmospheric compression which would increase the temperatures a decent amount as well this afternoon.
The radar has looked more impressive than what is actually happening, dry air in the low levels has prevent much of the rain from reaching the ground. The low to mid-level clouds have held temperatures down in some areas and those areas will remain a bit cooler today.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) Ridge center is still located over NM with expansion across the southern plains and even into the lower Mississippi Valley. Height pattern is consistent with above normal temperatures over the area encompassed by the ridge. Highs this afternoon will be a degree of two cooler than the past couple afternoons, but that isn't going to alleviate much of the heat concerns.
(This evening through Thursday) Temperatures this afternoon are running generally a few to as much as 10 degrees cooler across the region as the marine layer has deepened to 1000 feet. This trend may continue from north to south out over the coastal waters through the evening as the aforementioned trough results in stronger northwest winds. With high pressure still over the Desert Southwest, interior portions of southern San Benito and Monterey counties will warm into the 90s to near 100 deg F.
Hoenisch/Webb /ISSUED 513 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2023/ An upper level trough continues to move northward across our border with Canada, with southerly winds this morning becoming westerly this afternoon and increasing from light and variable to between 15 mph and 25 mph with gusts between 25 mph and 40 mph. As the upper level trough moves westward today, winds diminish overnight becoming light and variable.
1 of an inch, with very isolated higher amounts in the higher elevations. Discussion: Anomalous upper ridging remains centered across the Southern Great Plains with northwest upper level flow across our region. Boundary layer thickness and temperature values will be a few degrees warmer today than yesterday which will allow heat index values to be near or in excess of 100F across the southern Tennessee Valley near Chattanooga. With warmer mid-level temperatures today, lapse rates and surface based instability will be lower.
(Tonight through Thursday night) The latest RAP 500mb heights depict a nearly 600 dm ridge centered over northern New Mexico this afternoon. The ridge has flattened just a bit and moved a smidge further northwest over the last couple days, hence the "slightly" cooler temperatures and lack of heat headlines so far this week. With weak ENE flow on the eastern periphery of the ridge, we may see some seabreeze showers and isolated thunderstorms work inland over the Coastal Plains and perhaps as far north and west as Wilson and and Gonzales counties.
1130 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2023 07z surface analyst had a trough from central ND into central NE. Thursday through Wednesday, southern CONUS upper ridge will dominate with CWA on the northern edge.
(This afternoon through Thursday) The 599 dam ridge is centered over New Mexico but extends eastward through the Mid-South region and over Central AL. The airmass aloft remains dry, and as such we can expect mostly sunny skies today and tomorrow with highs in the mid 90s today then a degree or two warmer area-wide tomorrow. A weak mid-level trough is centered over the Gulf of Mexico with an inverted axis and associated weak, cyclonic flow extending northward into the Gulf Coast region. This feature may support a few isolated showers or storms across the southeast this afternoon, but activity is expected to struggle amidst an environment that is mostly within the grasp of the ridge and dry air.
213 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023 High pressure will broadly ridge into the region from offshore through this weekend. Bermuda high pressure will continue to ridge in from offshore tonight. Lows falling into the low to upper 70s. Upper ridging over the western Atlantic builds westward into the region for the mid to late week period.
TFJ Cold front moves to the east this morning taking the showers with it. Upper trough tracks across the Canadian Prairies today and flattens the ridge.
The radar has looked more impressive than what is actually happening, dry air in the low levels has prevented much of the rain from reaching the ground. The low to mid-level clouds have held temperatures down in some areas and those areas will remain a bit cooler today.
Dry southwesterly flow aloft will continue to overspread the Sierra and western Nevada through the rest of the week as we remain positioned between high pressure to the southeast and troughing to the northwest.
Weak ridging over the area will keep light easterly winds across west central and southwest Florida today. Hot and muggy conditions will persist with daytime highs in the low to mid 90's with heat indices reaching 102-107 degrees, which is just below heat advisory criteria. Weak high pressure over the area will produce light winds over the eastern gulf waters today. By Thursday, high pressure near Bermuda will ridge westward over Florida producing a predominant easterly wind flow. This will produce scattered to numerous showers and storms moving from east to west with the highest chances during the evening hours over the eastern gulf waters.
Strong ridge of high pressure will result in continued anomalous warmth through the weekend. An area of high pressure is forecast to sit near the four corners through this weekend.
1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 (The rest of today) A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the pattern for today across much of the Plains. Besides the heat, a remnant MCV from overnight convection across the High Plains is currently working its way through southern Kansas and a few spotty showers are noted on radar where the impulse is interacting with an area of warm advection within a strong low level jet max. The steady weakening of the low level jet will limit support for continued development further east across our area, though some mid level cloud cover could keep high temps down a degree or two for some locations this afternoon along the Kansas border.
25" in the Lower Keys. Clouds did break briefly across the Lower Keys and Key West International Airport was able to recover to 89 degrees late in the afternoon. From synopsis, strong high pressure centered over the east-central Atlantic will maintain mainly easterly moderate to at times fresh breezes for the next couple of days.
745 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023 High pressure will remain off the Southeastern U. Bermuda high pressure will continue to ridge in from offshore overnight. Another warm/muggy night in store for Eastern NC, temps fall into low 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast (due to water temps in the low 80s). Upper ridging over the western Atlantic builds westward into the region for the mid to late week period.
706 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday) The 599 dam ridge is centered over New Mexico but extends eastward through the Mid-South region and over Central AL. The airmass aloft remains dry, and as such we can expect mostly sunny skies today and tomorrow with highs in the mid 90s today then a degree or two warmer area-wide tomorrow. A weak mid-level trough is centered over the Gulf of Mexico with an inverted axis and associated weak, cyclonic flow extending northward into the Gulf Coast region. This feature may support a few isolated showers or storms across the southeast this afternoon, but activity is expected to struggle amidst an environment that is mostly within the grasp of the ridge and dry air.
630 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) The latest RAP 500mb heights depict a nearly 600 dm ridge centered over northern New Mexico this afternoon. The ridge has flattened just a bit and moved a smidge further northwest over the last couple days, hence the "slightly" cooler temperatures and lack of heat headlines so far this week. With weak ENE flow on the eastern periphery of the ridge, we may see some seabreeze showers and isolated thunderstorms work inland over the Coastal Plains and perhaps as far north and west as Wilson and and Gonzales counties.
Previous discussion: Weak upper trough over the Gulf coast area extending northeast into the area with a weak vorticity trough extending into the Midlands. Mainly high clouds streaming north associated with vorticity trough. Models appear a little warmer tonight but stayed with the low to mid 70s persistence forecast. Upper ridging will continue to strengthen across the area into Thursday and while deep moisture will marginally increase, warming aloft will once again limit convective chances. HiRes guidance generally favors isolated convection mainly developing along the higher terrain to the NW and along the sea breeze but little over our area.
(Rest of tonight) The forecast area remains between two strong upper ridges, a 599 decameter one over the SW CONUS and ~597dm over the NW Atlantic basin at 500mb. A bit of weakness between the two ridges (despite rather high heights) was enough to provide mid level lift, and the development of scattered showers, which was moving from north to south.
Dewpoints are hanging around in the low 70s for much of the area this evening.
701 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 This Afternoon through Tomorrow: High pressure and upper-level ridging will prevail over the region today into tomorrow - resulting in mostly dry conditions through at least tomorrow morning.
Temperatures currently in the mid to upper 80s will gradually cool to the low to mid 70s at daybreak. Upper ridging will continue to strengthen across the area into Thursday and while deep moisture will marginally increase, warming aloft will once again limit convective chances. HiRes guidance generally favors isolated convection mainly developing along the higher terrain to the NW and along the sea breeze but little over our area.
An upper ridge remains suppressed over NM with an upper low poised off the coast.
Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s, with upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.
616 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 (This evening through Thursday) An ~600 dam 500 mb ridge centered across New Mexico will continue to be the primary influence on the weather across the Southern Plains.
626 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) A slight weakening of the 500mb high pressure center continues to track across a majority of the models for today and tomorrow. On the side of more active weather, the weakening of the ridge does provide better chances for afternoon showers developing off the Southern Rockies to move into the northwestern portion of the Panhandles.
1037 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023 High pressure will remain off the Southeastern U. Bermuda high pressure will continue to ridge in from offshore overnight. Another warm/muggy night in store for Eastern NC, temps fall into low 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast (due to water temps in the low 80s). Upper ridging over the western Atlantic builds westward into the region for the mid to late week period.
/NEW/ /Tonight and Thursday/ A mid-level ridge axis will remain draped across the Desert Southwest and into West Texas. Occasional cirrus will invade from the northeast on the southeastern periphery of the upper high. /Issued 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023/ Update: No major changes were made to the forecast as the upper level high dominates over the region. The mid-level ridge will remain the predominate feature locally and keep the stagnant weather pattern in-place through the weekend.
That endeavor may become easier going forward through this dry pattern under the upper ridge.
615 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 (This evening through Thursday) A large upper ridge continues to bring hot and dry conditions across the region. High temperatures similar to yesterday in the low 100s are expected.
512 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2023 The upper ridge over the region is flattening and shifting slightly eastward this afternoon in response to an upper low crossing the Canadian prairie provinces. At the surface, a weakly defined trough extends from eastern North Dakota across western South Dakota and Nebraska and into eastern Colorado. Some high based thunderstorms are already developing over, and moving off, the higher terrain to the southwest of the forecast area in Wyoming. Lower confidence exists with convective initiation over south central South Dakota as the surface boundary moves into that area, but have continued the low PoPs there in case convection is able to overcome the robust cap. For Thursday through next Wednesday, the forecast area will be toward the northern edge of the southern CONUS upper ridge.
629 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) Ridge center is still located over NM with expansion across the southern plains and even into the lower Mississippi Valley. Height pattern is consistent with above normal temperatures over the area encompassed by the ridge. Highs this afternoon will be a degree of two cooler than the past couple afternoons, but that isn't going to alleviate much of the heat concerns.
(Tonight) Despite very strong upper ridging over the southern Rockies and off of the east coast, a slight weakness between them has resulted in mid/upper level lift and high altitude showers falling from middle Tennessee to parts of NW Alabama. The rest of the forecast with low temperatures in the lower 70s looks fine at the moment.
1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) Ridge center is still located over NM with expansion across the southern plains and even into the lower Mississippi Valley. Height pattern is consistent with above normal temperatures over the area encompassed by the ridge. Highs this afternoon will be a degree of two cooler than the past couple afternoons, but that isn't going to alleviate much of the heat concerns.
1143 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 500 mb short wave trough moving thru the RRV. The main cold front arrive later tonight into Thursday morning.
131 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 High pressure will remain off the Southeastern U. Bermuda high pressure will continue to ridge in from offshore overnight. Another warm/muggy night in store for Eastern NC, temps fall into low 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast (due to water temps in the low 80s). Upper ridging over the western Atlantic builds westward into the region for the mid to late week period.
/Issued 736 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023/ /Tonight and Thursday/ A mid-level ridge axis will remain draped across the Desert Southwest and into West Texas. Occasional cirrus will invade from the northeast on the southeastern periphery of the upper high. /Issued 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023/ Update: No major changes were made to the forecast as the upper level high dominates over the region. The mid-level ridge will remain the predominate feature locally and keep the stagnant weather pattern in-place through the weekend.
Sufficient moisture will be in place through the end of the week, however, it's a little meager with some slight drying thanks to high pressure slowly migrating westward. Slight troughing across the Pacific NW will nudge the mid-level high pressure to the east, opening the door for a little more monsoonal moisture to lift northward into the AZ High Country. Other than diminishing PoPs across the climatologically less favored areas of the Little Colorado River Valley and some of the lower elevations of western Yavapai County, inherited PoPs from the blended guidance appear reasonable at this juncture.
1054 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2023 The upper ridge over the region is flattening and shifting slightly eastward this afternoon in response to an upper low crossing the Canadian prairie provinces. At the surface, a weakly defined trough extends from eastern North Dakota across western South Dakota and Nebraska and into eastern Colorado. Some high based thunderstorms are already developing over, and moving off, the higher terrain to the southwest of the forecast area in Wyoming. Lower confidence exists with convective initiation over south central South Dakota as the surface boundary moves into that area, but have continued the low PoPs there in case convection is able to overcome the robust cap. For Thursday through next Wednesday, the forecast area will be toward the northern edge of the southern CONUS upper ridge.
Meanwhile, upper level disturbance and associated tropical wave should move over the east coast while high pressure persists through the period.
1224 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (Rest of tonight) The forecast area remains between two strong upper ridges, a 599 decameter one over the SW CONUS and ~597dm over the NW Atlantic basin at 500mb. A bit of weakness between the two ridges (despite rather high heights) was enough to provide mid level lift, and the development of scattered showers, which was moving from north to south.
A large ridge of high pressure will be centered across the southern Rockies, while a broad trough remains off the Pacific Northwest coast.
Mostly clear skies remain in place as a ridge of high pressure dominates the region.
This will allow temperatures to surge into the mid to upper 90s as the upper level ridge builds further northeastward. Leaned toward the higher NAM for those which has mid to upper 70s. This is where the highest instability will be today, with SBCAPE of at least 3000-4000 J/kg.
(Today and tonight) Upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across the southern Plains today with hot and dry conditions. Models do show less veering in the low level flow today, which may aid in keeping dewpoints a bit higher. Expect to see more convection develop across the High Plains and then move east across Kansas overnight.
307 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 Strong ridging and hot and humid temperatures will remain for the short term.