Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft transitioning east through the South Plains of west Texas. Meanwhile, a closed upper low is pushing ashore into southern California. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. Expect afternoon highs generally up into the 70s(F) in south central Kansas to possibly the lower 80s(F) farther west in extreme southwest Kansas.
(Today) West-northwest mid to upper flow remains in place over the TN valley region as a ridge has shifted east into the Plains. High clouds will spill east into the forecast area today as a result, but sunshine should be plentiful enough to push temperatures into the lower to middle 70s this afternoon (upper 60s atop the higher plateau).
Today, high pressure further builds in from the southwest. With high pressure moving in our windy days have come to an end; winds will be much lighter today due to a relaxed pressure gradient.
147 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023 A ridge of high pressure will build to the west and cross the region through the day Thursday.
Temperatures along waterfront locations in the Keys are hovering mostly in the lower to mid 70s. Surface analysis depicts a weak cold front across South Florida, with temperatures down to near 60 degrees and dewpoints in the lower 50s as far south as Lake Okeechobee. Aloft, the large gyre which has dominated the weather pattern across the eastern CONUS for the past several days is finally moving eastward and offshore, with a broad ridge building upstream across the Plains states. Today will see the slightly cooler and noticeably drier airmass currently over South Florida spread southward across the Keys, with dewpoints expected to drop down into the upper 50s to lower 60s during the day.
Most Florida zones; however, should remain in the low to mid 50s for lows tonight, but should quickly climb into the low to mid 80s by the afternoon hours. (Thursday night through Friday night) A building upper ridge over the central Gulf will make for dry, warm weather under a mix of sun and clouds.
1107 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 (Rest of tonight) A cold upper low located over the Great Lakes was slowly weakening as it ever so slowly moved eastward. A blocking setup with this setup (Rex-style) considering the upper high positioned north of it, or Omega if the low over the western CONUS was a consideration. Lows temps should have a valley/ridge split, with somewhat warmer readings in the higher elevations, colder lower spots. Will make some adjustments, mostly downward for the lower spots.
- A warmer period of normal to slightly above normal temperatures is likely. Overall, a pleasant day with temperatures warming into the lower to mid 70s for highs. The transition is underway to a more active pattern as the western trough in the omega block set up digs into the California coast.
Only cloud cover tonight should be of the high level variety. Rua (Tonight through Friday night) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows our stalled frontal boundary just clipping our swrn zones while extending over the coastal waters, with high pressure centered over the Ozarks ridging sewd across the wrn Gulf region. Water vapor imagery shows our mid/upper- level ridge axis now west of the forecast area, while a cutoff low over the nern CONUS maintains a nwrly flow over the region. Dry conditions look to persist through tomorrow although high pressure moving east of the area and the ridge axis sliding back our way will allow moistening to commence through the column starting tomorrow.
445 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Shower and high elevation snow chances will taper off through this evening as the upper low moves east of the region.
A shift in the upper pattern is expected to take place today as the ridge axis slides from Srn Plains across the Mid-MS Valley region. Overnight lows Friday night will be about 10 degrees warmer, namely due to ongoing precipitation.
This low will lead to increasing southwesterly winds as we go through the morning which will shift a dryline through the forecast area.
the steady troughing that has been in place over the past several days. A warm front will lift northward into the area Thursday afternoon through Friday, helping to focus shower and thunderstorm activity. The big question is where exactly the warm front ends up setting up or at least how quickly it lifts through the area. Lows will warm from the low 40s tonight to the mid and upper 50s Thursday night and Friday night.
1019 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 Key Messages: - Quiet through tonight with high pressure in control. Afternoon surface obs and satellite imagery painted a beautiful picture of mostly sunny skies and near seasonable temperatures for southeast MN, northeast IA and west central WI; all thanks to high pressure stretching across the east central Great Plains. Temperatures as of 200 PM were in the low 50s to low 60s, just a little below normal for the area for the beginning of May. This dry and quiet stretch of weather will continue through tonight as the high passes across the mid-Mississippi River Valley and Midwest. This in turn will phase with a western CONUS trough later this week, which will help to shift ridging in place across the eastern Great Plains into the eastern Midwest and Ohio River Valley.
Slightly more cloud cover is expected across the Arrowhead and we will see cooler temperatures by the Lake. As the low departs we will see enhanced northeast winds come streaming down the Lake bringing this warm and moist air over the cool lake of which has SST of 35F.
905 PM MDT Wed May 3 2023 An upper ridge sits over the Rockies, while a low pressure system spins over the CA coast. Highs Thursday will be slightly cooler, but still in the 70s. The upper trough will swing northeastward and settle over the western states for the next several days. The northern plains will stay beneath a cooler airmass during this time, with highs in and around the 60s.
(This afternoon through Thursday Night) High pressure is now influencing our weather and we are seeing beautiful conditions across the area. High pressure remains in place for tomorrow keeping conditions quiet. A short wave trough will kick out of the Four Corners region later Thursday pushing a warm front into our area late Thursday into Friday.
Behind the front though, not much in the way of "colder" air as highs are only expected to be a few degrees cooler than today. Western CONUS through to interact with a decaying east to west trough axis in Canada at the start of the period, with South Dakota located in proximity to the upper level col. This wave will continue northeast across the CWA though the course of the day Friday, though with a weak near surface pressure pattern and an airmass coming off of broad high pressure to the northeast.
157 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023 The frontal boundary continues to dissipate as shifts out of the region and weak high pressure builds into the area.
(Rest of tonight) A cold upper low located over the Great Lakes was slowly weakening as it ever so slowly moved eastward. A blocking setup with this setup (Rex-style) considering the upper high positioned north of it, or Omega if the low over the western CONUS was a consideration. Lows temps should have a valley/ridge split, with somewhat warmer readings in the higher elevations, colder lower spots. Will make some adjustments, mostly downward for the lower spots.
Drier into the weekend with slightly warmer temperatures. As the low shifts away the focus for shower chances will shift towards the Central Coast early this morning with wraparound showers possible across the entire region into this afternoon. Additional low-end shower chances are possible primarily for the North Bay late Friday night as troughing passes by to the north. Highs each day will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s, with lows dipping into the 40s.
112 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Shower and high elevation snow chances will taper off through this evening as the upper low moves east of the region.
The weak cold front has moved into our southern CWA this morning, with drier northerly flow aloft persisting into Friday. The main period of cooler 850MB temps doesn't arrive until later tonight or Friday as the upper low retrogrades into southern Canada, so highs will tend to remain in the 60s to near 70 this afternoon (Possibly warmer in our south). Cooler temps aloft cap off potential highs and NBM generally favors upper 50s to mid 60s on Friday. -Guidance struggles on the advection of instability into the high plains, which would help full thunderstorm development.
Highs on Friday are expected to range from the lower to middle 60s across central Wisconsin and the Fox Valley to the middle to upper 40s across the Door peninsula.
1153 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 (This evening through Thursday Night) Another quiet and warm day across SETX with afternoon highs and heat indices in the low to mid 80s. While the upper ridge axis should come closer to our area tonight, it will also be weakening as it does so.
308 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Dry and warmer weather is expected through this weekend with highs in the 60s this afternoon warming well into 70s this weekend and beyond.
One preferential area for convective initation might be northwest Oklahoma, in close proximity to a diffuse warm front.
1121 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 Northerly wind shift has occurred this evening for locations north of the I-94 corridor as a weak cold front continues southward. Forecast remains on track this evening, albeit with slightly warmer temperatures. Dry air continues to drift through the area as we sit underneath a ridge of high pressure building into north central Canada. Another warm day tomorrow, but temperatures will be slightly cooler than they are today. Easterly winds will continue to bring dry but somewhat cooler conditions to the Northern Plains. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages with highs in the low 60s and lows in the 40s.
At the surface, high pressure extends from the Red River into the ArkLaMiss with a weak pressure gradient in place. Mid/upper level clouds are spilling over the ridge and heading east towards our area.
406 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Showers will continue becoming less frequent today and the stubborn upper low pressure system starts to relinquish its grip on the region.
This high will gradually move east of the area tonight and Friday.
1244 AM CDT Thu May 4 2023 (This evening through Friday) In the mid/upper levels, two pronounced cyclones were noted on afternoon mesoanalysis -- one anchored over New England and the other off the coast of CA. A highly amplified upper ridge stretches along the Rockies between these systems, and as the western cyclone begins to push into the Wrn CONUS Thurs, ridging will shift east and quickly flatten. Despite weak height falls aloft and modest energy translating thru the mean flow, enough forcing for ascent -- particularly along the lifting warm front and within an expanding area of WAA -- will be present for convection beginning as early as Thurs morning over NWrn AR. Upper ridging will then build in as the slow-moving Wrn trough shifts into the Intermountain West.
The highest coverage of storms will remain in the Brazos Valley area towards Lake Livingston as the cap looks to remain in place along and south of I-10, though cannot out rule an isolated storm breaking through the cap. High temperatures today will get into the low to mid 80s for most of the region, but Friday will begin to feel more like Summer with high temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s. Persistent onshore flow will bring dew points into the low to mid 70s for most of the area causing heat indices to rise into the mid 90s. Low temperatures tonight and Friday night will be in the low 70s.
150 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Expansive upper level low finally drifts eastward today. A weak ridge of high pressure builds into the area Thursday, remaining in control across the region through the weekend. Still another piece of jet energy to flow across the region through the evening as the overall upper level low drifts eastward. One last piece of energy rotates across the upper low on Thursday with a few showers possible across NW PA during the afternoon. High pressure takes control of the region by Thursday night with skies becoming clear to partly cloudy. Quiet and dry weather is expected through the short term period underneath upper ridging and influenced by an area of high pressure situated across New England.
251 AM MDT Thu May 4 2023 Mostly dry conditions can be expected through the first half of the day today, with ridging in place over the region.
A slow moving area low pressure off the coast of southern California will bring gusty southerly winds to the region today.
322 AM CDT Thu May 4 2023 06z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Low pressure was over southwest South Dakota with a warm front running southeast into the Tennessee Valley.
Drier into the weekend with slightly warmer temperatures. As the low shifts away the focus for shower chances will lift towards the Central Coast early this morning with wraparound showers possible across the entire region into this afternoon. Additional low-end shower chances are possible primarily for the North Bay late Friday night as troughing passes by to the north. Highs each day will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s, with lows dipping into the 40s.
Strengthening southeast winds will keep things cooler by the lake, with a lake breeze likely pushing southeastward through the area late this afternoon and this evening.
(Today through Friday) Broad longwave trough encompassing the eastern 1/3 of the country will continue east today and tomorrow. Upper level ridge will be build in across the middle of the country from the Gulf Coast all the way to the Northern Plains. Not a particularly large spread in forecast temps, however, NBM is on the warmer side of guidance and more plausible considering the placement of the ridge in relation to the CWA. Further south, however, GPT soundings stay too warm in the lower levels to support anything surface based, meaning strong winds not making it to the surface.
That said, there is still a window for elevated and quasi-surface based severe storms early Thursday evening with ramping up of the low level jet and given the moderate shear/instability combo, mainly across southern Kansas. Ridging aloft and general subsidence on Friday should squelch convection outside of the early morning activity or isolated late day storms.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft transitioning east through the South Plains of west Texas. Meanwhile, a closed upper low is pushing ashore into southern California. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. Expect afternoon highs generally up into the 70s(F) in south central Kansas to possibly the lower 80s(F) farther west in extreme southwest Kansas. Southerly winds around 10 to 20kt are expected to persist overnight as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 30kt generally after 15Z as the lee side trough strengthens.
Broad mid/upper level troughing remains across the northern Great Lakes into the western Atlantic Ocean, downstream of sharp ridge axis extending south to north from the southern Plains into the Canadian Rockies. Weak wave within overhead troughing and attendant disorganized surface reflection kicking off increasing clouds from west to east into our region, with even a few light showers dropping southeast into the far northwest Lakes. Details: Expect temperatures to continue their slow rebound today, with afternoon temperatures expected to punch up into the 50s for most areas (a bit cooler near the big waters with expected afternoon lake breeze development). Warmer with showers on Friday. Synopsis/Forecast: Through Friday a retrograding piece of energy will elongate the antecedent troughing stretching from the Atlantic back into southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba.
1226 AM CDT Thu May 4 2023 An unsettled period is upcoming across the region as the large scale pattern changes very little and the upper Midwest remains in mainly southwest/west upper flow with troughing to the east and west. Overall, the cutoff low over the west coast looks to de-amplify and eject some energy northeast toward our area this weekend, but after that troughing looks to re-amplify a bit out west, working to keep split flow in place across the central CONUS and keep somewhat weak west/southwest flow over the upper Midwest.
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington NC 726 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023 High pressure will prevail through Friday.
An upper level low will move slowly inland across central California, keeping a chance of precipitation over the region through the end of the week.
Most of the day again appears warm and dry and then we will probably see thunderstorms develop over southwestern Nebraska during the evening hours in association with the next short wave trough entering the plains. Good confidence in the warm temperatures, but fairly low confidence in precipitation chances given significant model differences in upper trough strength, timing, and track during this period.
Temperatures will be some 5 to 15 degrees cooler today which will be welcomed to help slow down the runoff.
Coastal locations will be a few degrees cooler than inland, due to the Atlantic sea breeze.
High pressure will build off the Mid Atlantic coast from Friday through the weekend, with gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes developing across the Keys waters.
650 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Dry and warmer weather is expected through this weekend with highs in the 60s this afternoon warming well into 70s this weekend and beyond.
Upper level analysis places low over southern California, ridge to the lee of the Rockies, and notable trough stretching from low off the Jersey shore through the Great Lakes Region into Ontario. For today, quiet weather with pleasant temperatures again expected with blocking ridge over the area. For tonight, blocking ridge starts its break down, but pleasant weather will still remain. In the meantime, upper ridge continues its breakdown, with flow eventually shifting southwesterly and becoming active.
Some locations this morning dropped much cooler than originally forecast; however, daytime heating has already caught many sites up to the current forecast temperatures. At the surface, high pressure extends from the Red River into the ArkLaMiss with a weak pressure gradient in place. Mid/upper level clouds are spilling over the ridge and heading east towards our area.
Mid-level ridging over the Gulf will keep conditions dry across the Florida peninsula, with onshore flow around 10 to 15 mph. Skies will be mostly sunny, allowing for sufficient daytime heating that will help temperatures climb into the low to mid 80s along the coast and the upper 80s across the interior of east central Florida.
Issued by National Weather Service Caribou ME 1041 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Showers will continue becoming less frequent today and the stubborn upper low pressure system starts to relinquish its grip on the region.
Forecasted highs are expected to rise into the low to mid 80s for most locations. The exception will be across the Pine Ridge where a quicker development of clouds will limit highs in the upper 70s.
High pressure has settled in over the southeast U.
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington NC 509 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023 High pressure will prevail through Friday.
514 AM CDT Thu May 4 2023 (Today) West-northwest mid to upper flow remains in place over the TN valley region as a ridge has shifted east into the Plains. High clouds will spill east into the forecast area today as a result, but sunshine should be plentiful enough to push temperatures into the lower to middle 70s this afternoon (upper 60s atop the higher plateau).
06z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Low pressure was over southwest South Dakota with a warm front running southeast into the Tennessee Valley.
618 AM CDT Thu May 4 2023 Upper-level ridging over the central CONUS will continue to deamplify as its axis moves east across the Plains. In the lower-levels, a warm front at the surface will develop today in eastern Kansas and extend southeast into Arkansas. The onset of showers and thunderstorms this evening has become later with each forecast, as the most abundant moisture and forcing appear to enter the Mid-Mississippi Valley after 06z Friday along the nose of the low-level jet. Otherwise, temperatures today will be warmer, landing in the 70s areawide despite increasing cloud cover through the day. Jaja Showers and thunderstorms will exit the CWA Friday night as the last upper-level vorticity max exits to the east and is replaced by ridging.
has our locally situated low pressure system becoming more diffuse as the weekend approaches. The diminished low over California will morph back into the greater wave pattern as the next ccw rotating trough keeps intermittent and seasonably cool wet weather in play. This could be a substantial ridge and a welcomed departure from the extended winter, due to arrive by next Thursday or Friday. An upper low over S central CA will continue to slowly fill.
Ridging is still in place over the state of Texas and will slowly push east over the Lower Texas Coast for the weekend.
Isolated lake enhanced showers under northwesterly flow aloft expected today,mainly east of PGH, as the upper low that has been over the region is now offshore based off latest WV imagery.
The higher elevations will see late-season snow showers with some minor accumulations. The low is nearing the central California coast early this morning as it begins to slowly move east.
509 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Shower and high elevation snow chances will taper off through this evening as the upper low moves east of the region.
A storm system lingering to the west will result in breezy afternoons and cooler temperatures through the coming weekend.
As a California low pressure system slowly makes its way through the area through the weekend, unsettled conditions will prevail with temperatures closer to normal for this time of year.
711 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Showers will continue becoming less frequent today and the stubborn upper low pressure system starts to relinquish its grip on the region.
Currently we have southwest flow aloft as an upper level low centered near the southern California coast makes slow progress to the northeast. The southwest flow ahead of the low continues to advect mid and upper level moisture into the area while in the low levels, southeasterly flow maintains plentiful Gulf of Mexico moisture. Although we will have quite a few clouds in the region today, we will still warm well into the 80s, with a few highs in the low 90s possible.
The frontal boundary continues to dissipate as shifts out of the region and weak high pressure builds into the area.
559 AM CDT Thu May 4 2023 (Today through Friday) This AM, we have ridging present across E Conus. Satellite only shows some cirrus moving in through the NW flow, but the lower levels are dry and should remain so for another day today with light W-NW surface winds expected. The low level flow will turn around to very light/variable but going to ERLY tonight. A warm front will as a result push into the SW part of AL on Friday.
Instability is roughly a third of what it was yesterday at this time, as 5h low center is well ofshore with a trailing 5h trough axis extending into PA. The lingering influence of upper level troughing over CPA will maintain this final round of scattered- numerous, diurnally-driven, passing rain showers through late afternoon. Model RH profiles support a mix of sun and cumulus with just an outside chance of an afternoon shower over the eastern edge of the forecast area associated with departing upper trough and lingering cool air aloft. Mixing to 850mb yields expected highs in the 55-60F range over the northern tier to the lower 60s in the south central and southeastern valleys.
738 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023 High pressure will prevail through Friday.