Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
151 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Central CONUS upper ridge will break down as it shifts SE, supporting a cooling trend through the remainder of the week. Remains of Harold are advecting north around the west side of the ridge and will help support increasing chances for showers the next few days across parts of the area, coupled with passing impulses and residual monsoon moisture.
(This evening through Thursday) The short term will continue to be dominated by heat as the 500mb ridge shifts back directly over us.
133 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 High pressure builds in through Wednesday night, then slides to the east on Thursday.
The Florida Keys remain in a northeast to easterly flow regime on the southeastern side of a very strong mean layer ridge currently centered over Missouri and Arkansas. The current pattern in place is expected to continue for the next few days as the very strong ridge remains in place across much of the eastern United States.
1223 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Extreme heat and humidity continuing today, warmer temperatures last through Thursday. Strong high pressure over the central CONUS continues to keep a stagnant airmass of warm moist air over much of Minnesota and Wisconsin. The high pressure center over the Central CONUS will begin to weaken and move south which should then open the door enough for "improvement" in the ongoing heatwave conditions. Heat and humidity will still be prevalent today as heat indices will range between 105-110, with the highest values focused in Southern MN.
(The rest of today ) 12Z RAOBS a little cooler than than those of 24 hours ago. Still, upper high still remains quite strong while the center has shifted a little east and south.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) Most of the flooding that occurred this morning across the Lower Trans Pecos has ended with no new rain this afternoon. Most locations are only in the 70s with 80s across the northern Permian Basin! Unfortunately, this won't last as the upper ridge quickly builds back across the area Thursday. Temperatures will rebound back into the 90s for most except across the higher terrain where highs will only make the 80s due to the heavy rain that fell over the last day. Scattered showers and storms are possible once again across mainly the higher terrain Thursday afternoon as remnant tropical moisture slowly exits the area.
1101 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances will return this evening with a crossing warm front.
232 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Mainly sunny skies, seasonal temperatures and drier air are expected this afternoon and again on Thursday as weak high pressure moves through the forecast area.
Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower 70s over inland areas and into the mid to upper 70s for areas along the coast and adjacent to the St Johns River.
The ridge responsible for deflecting all weather systems from our region remains in place across the AR/MO border, and will gradually be migrating toward our region in the coming days. Today, highs will be slightly cooler than previous days, maxing out between 99-104 degrees. Heat index values will be a few degrees warmer, especially across East Texas where humidity will be slightly higher. The ridge moving closer to our region tomorrow means that highs will once again climb above 105 for a large portion of North and Central Texas as heat index values range between 105 to 111.
1229 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances will return this evening with a crossing warm front.
1228 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 (Today and tonight) The 00Z 500mb analysis marks the center of the upper ridge near the Iowa/Missouri border, with 600 dm still observed. Today, the high will begin to slowly break down and shift slowly southward towards Arkansas.
Most near-term models and global ensembles generally agree that a ridge of high pressure will develop over the Northern Rockies throughout the remainder of this week.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Key Messages: -Hot temperatures continue today and tomorrow; Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until tomorrow evening -Cooler temperatures this weekend with sporadic precipitation chances It's a scorcher out there! Temperatures have been climbing rapidly early this afternoon with many sites across the area already nearing or exceeding 100F. Our big upper level ridge begins to break down tomorrow, resulting in some relief from the heat, especially for those in northern Iowa. As has been mentioned in multiple previous discussions, a cool front will begin to sag into the state as the apex of the ridge flattens, resulting in cooler 850 mb temperatures aloft and weak cold air advection near the surface.
Thursday, will be cooler thanks to a weak cold front from the west, but humidity values are expected to drop to around 15 percent for about 2 to 3 hours during the afternoon.
However, we do have a suspected cold front in eastern Montana with the dry air intrusion that could provide the forcing to overcome the cap for convection in the Devils Lake Basin. Temperatures will stay in the low to mid 80s for highs throughout the area and lows in the 60s. The heat across our region associated with the strong central US ridge will start to wane as the ridge itself sinks further south.
203 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Mainly sunny skies, seasonal temperatures and drier air are expected through Thursday as weak high pressure moves through the forecast area.
400 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances return this afternoon and overnight with a crossing warm front.
1238 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances will return this afternoon and overnight with a crossing warm front.
High pressure will begin to track back into the area later today, but luckily due to the lingering cloud cover and shower chances, temperatures across much of the area will be slightly cooler today. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to range from the lower 90s to as high as 103, and overnight lows are expected to remain in the 70s.
It still appears the low level thermal ridge will intensify as we go into late week with H850 temperatures potentially reaching ~25 deg C late Thursday. Will note that the guidance surface temperature envelope has trended down slightly for the next few days, but if the thermal ridge overachieves in the strongly subsident airmass, then there is still a reasonable chance for reaching and possibly exceeding all-time record high temperatures for Thursday. While these values wouldn't normally warrant a red flag warning, the worsening drought conditions continue to have a large influence on the fire danger threat and we've had to expand the RFW a little more to include all of NE LA and portions of the lower MS Delta region.
A lack of moisture aloft should inhibit showers/storms from moving onto the lower elevations. Otherwise, a weak, dry cold front will then cross the area this evening with light northerly winds behind it. Thursday into Thursday night, an upper ridge will move eastward to the Northern Rockies with mainly dry conditions across our area. WPC clusters show high confidence in ridging persisting over the region this weekend.
314 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Cooler temperatures and dry, breezy weather today.
721 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances return this afternoon and overnight with a crossing warm front.
Current dewpoints at mid afternoon ranged from the lower to mid 60s northeast to around 70 over southeast Tennessee. The large upper level ridge is going to weaken and begin to shift back to the west over the next 24 hours. However with the dry ground and mixing each day am not too confident of the higher dew points. Tonight there could be some more clouds in the northeast as a convective complex rotates around the high from the upper Ohio Valley into the mid Atlantic.
As a boundary sinks southward overnight, the highest rain chances will gradually shift south as well.
The anomalously strong mid level ridge over the Plains should start to go through some weakening for the remainder of the week. Despite that weakening, the H7 thermal ridge does remain pretty stout through Thursday, thus likely capping off the region for another couple forecast periods. At the sfc, low pressure over eastern SD will likely skirt to the east, with its attendant front sliding south into NE/IA.
208 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Cooler temperatures and dry, breezy weather today.
733 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances return this afternoon and overnight with a crossing warm front.
KEY MESSAGES: - Extreme heat and humidity begin to shift off to the south after today, but warmer temperatures last through Thursday. The driver of the heat wave is a large ridge of high pressure aloft that has been centered over the central CONUS. This ridge finally begins to shift off to southwest over the next few days and allow for a pattern change over the Upper Midwest.
The dominant feature that is facilitating the northeast to east steering flow is a strong, expansive deep mean layer ridge centered near Arkansas. From synopsis, high pressure over the eastern United States and western Atlantic will result in moderate breezes overnight. As an upper-level trough stretches into the western Atlantic, breezes will gradually slacken over the following day or two.
620 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Extreme heat and humidity begin to shift off to the south after today, but warmer temperatures last through Thursday. The driver of the heat wave is a large ridge of high pressure aloft that has been centered over the central CONUS. This ridge finally begins to shift off to southwest over the next few days and allow for a pattern change over the Upper Midwest.
613 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) TS Harold skirted around the southern periphery of the stout upper level high pressure centered over MO/KS/OK/AR, with remnants now moving into the far southern parts of AZ and NM.
638 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Currently, hot and dry conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the week due to an upper level ridge centered above the Central Plains.
(Rest of tonight) A weak backdoor cold front entered northeast portions of Alabama late this afternoon. While it provided little relief from the heat, dewpoints across northeast Alabama dropped into the lower 70s versus the mid to upper 70s being observed further west. No significant changes were made to the overnight forecast, another mild night is in store with lows bottoming out in the low to mid 70s by morning.
504 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Central CONUS upper ridge will break down as it shifts SE, supporting a cooling trend through the remainder of the week. Remains of Harold are advecting north around the west side of the ridge and will help support increasing chances for showers the next few days across parts of the area, coupled with passing impulses and residual monsoon moisture.
722 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 (This evening through Thursday) The short term will continue to be dominated by heat as the 500mb ridge shifts back directly over us.
Building high pressure and sunny skies have brought temperatures 5 to 8 degrees warmer than yesterday.
High pressure will exist today over the Northern Rockies. As the axis of the ridge shifts to the east on Friday, more unstable conditions will develop and promote the return of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. As we head into the weekend, the ridge of high pressure will reestablish itself and broaden across the western United States.
At the surface not much of a reflection of any trough as winds are once again near calm or light north-northeast. North winds on Friday and cooler. Overview: -500mb flow shifts from Zonal to Northwest flow allowing for more seasonal temperatures before another ridge moves in from the west.
1014 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 A strong upper level ridge remains parked over MO. We are in for a couple more days of high heat before a cold front moves through this weekend and brings more reasonable temps to the Mid-South. Currently, hot and dry conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the week due to an upper level ridge centered above the Central Plains.
Strong upper ridging over the center of the country will continue to bleed into Middle TN through at least Friday.
1224 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) Most of the flooding that occurred this morning across the Lower Trans Pecos has ended with no new rain this afternoon. Most locations are only in the 70s with 80s across the northern Permian Basin! Unfortunately, this won't last as the upper ridge quickly builds back across the area Thursday. Temperatures will rebound back into the 90s for most except across the higher terrain where highs will only make the 80s due to the heavy rain that fell over the last day. Scattered showers and storms are possible once again across mainly the higher terrain Thursday afternoon as remnant tropical moisture slowly exits the area.
With this in mind, the lack of cloud cover combined with sufficient daytime heat should help afternoon temperatures climb into the upper 80s across central Mississippi with a few spots possibly reaching the lower 90s. /CR/ Persistence will continue to be a good forecast through the near term as a strong high pressure system remains centered over the southeastern region. /KVP/ High pressure continues to be the dominant feature this week and will promote much above normal temperatures, as much as 10-15 degrees F. High pressure will keep flow southerly, but moisture return should be meager.
Overnight lows tonight and Wednesday night will be in the low to mid 70s areawide. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge begins to edge eastward allowing for PWATs to increase across SE Texas to 1.
235 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas for much of the week.
A large boundary of precipitation will develop as the moist air mass from this low interacts or moves over the arctic air. Lower elevations across central Idaho and Camas Prairie will receive rain as temps remain above freezing through late Wednesday. Temperatures will lower at this time, just in time for the next low pressure system to move through Wednesday night and bring impactful snow accumulations.
324 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday) High pressure positioned over the area will keep a precip-free forecast in place through the short term.
One thing we'll be watching is the low level jet flaring up around 40 knots at 2000ft early tonight. Otherwise, local conditions today simply marked by the noted warming trend as the advective process gains traction in the lower levels. As noted with activity tonight, cannot rule out a rumble of thunder given the lower static stability held aloft.
BB/03 (Now through Wednesday) Expect dry conditions to continue through the forecast as an expansive upper ridge over the southern Gulf slowly expands northward into the southeast. At the surface, high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will continue to strengthen leading to continued east-southeasterly winds. Subsidence from the ridge will squash any rain chances and probably most of the cloud cover. Temperatures will hover in the low 80s but given the increased winds, some mechanical mixing may keep temperatures from climbing into the mid to upper 80s.
Round 1: An upper low currently spinning over Baja California is progged to dig southeastward into Mexico over the next 24 hours.
Overnight lows should remain fairly mild near 60 degrees, slightly warmer where there is persistent cloud cover west of the Mississippi River. Much warmer than normal temperatures will continue across the Mid-South through the weekend as an upper level high pressure system prevails across the southeast U. A cold front will stall north of the region late this week and bring the return of rain chances mainly for areas north of Interstate 40.
742 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Dry, high pressure will remain anchored over the forecast area, through the middle of the week. The anomalously strong ridge over the Southeast will lead to a warming trend starting mid week and keep the area dry through the weekend. If this occurs, the clouds could impact low temperatures keeping portions of the forecast area warmer than they would otherwise be. Either way it will be at least slightly warmer than the previous night. The northern and western Midlands should be in the lower to mid 40s, while the southeast Midlands and CSRA may have early lows in the mid to upper 40s before holding steady late tonight if the stratocumulus does develop.
621 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing well to our west, as tropical moisture continues to follow the trough axis through the Plains. The well defined upper-level trough to our west will begin its ejection tonight, which will push some rain chances into our NW zones.
755 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 High pressure will modify while extending across the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through the end of the week. High pressure continues to influence the region tonight. Upper level trough axis is to the west of NC, but will continue to build across the region tonight and through the week. Otherwise overnight lows will be in the low 40s north to mid/upper 40s south. A strengthening upper level ridge will continue to shift east with the main axis over Central NC Wednesday. High pressure anchored over the region will influence the region again, but by Wednesday afternoon light winds will be from the south/south east. Whiles skies will be mostly clear on Wednesday there is another chance for the development of low status and fog Wednesday night with increase moisture in the lower levels.
With mostly clear skies expected across our CWA heading into the overnight period, radiational cooling will help cool nighttime temperatures into the low 60s west of I-55.
Although a few lower stratocumulus clouds may arrive close to sunrise given the magnitude/orientation of the low-level jet, skies should remain mostly clear for the majority of the night, with overnight lows dependent on wind and dewpoints (which should range from the u30s-l40s NE to u40s-l50s SW).
East of the Cascades, some ridge locations including Coffee Pot have a 70-80% probability of seeing gusts up to 30 mph between 8 PM to midnight tonight.
Broad high pressure has setup north of Florida, resulting in breezy easterly winds and rather stable conditions today. High pressure will hold north of Florida through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with easterly and northeasterly flow continuing.
/05/ (This evening through Wednesday Night) Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing well to our west, as tropical moisture continues to follow the trough axis through the Plains. The well defined upper-level trough to our west will begin its ejection tonight, which will push some rain chances into our NW zones.
342 PM PDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Rain with a cold front will develop across Del Norte County this evening.
1041 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 High pressure will settle across the Carolinas through midweek, with warm southwesterly flow allowing for above normal temperatures to evolve locally through the remainder of the workweek. The regional-scale surface pressure pattern has not changed much, with broad high pressure still dominant along the East Coast.
610 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Much warmer than normal temperatures will continue across the Mid-South through the weekend as an upper level high pressure system prevails across the southeast U. A cold front will stall north of the region late this week and bring the return of rain chances mainly for areas north of Interstate 40.
320 PM MDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Current surface analysis shows one cold front south and east of the region, with a stronger Canadian front nearly stationary right now from northeast to southwestern MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over the far southwest US, with another low over southern British Columbia.
251 PM PDT Tue Oct 24 2023 A low pressure system will bring a chance of light precipitation to mainly the Yosemite NP area late Wednesday afternoon and overnight.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening along the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. The large upper-level trough we have been tracking continues to translate eastward overnight, bringing with it a cold front. Temperatures can be expected to be a few degrees cooler tomorrow with clearing skies throughout the day from west to east.
Unsettled, breezy and cooler weather will stick around much of this week, with even colder and windier conditions for the coming weekend.
717 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 High pressure will settle across the Carolinas through midweek, with warm southwesterly flow allowing for above normal temperatures to evolve locally through the remainder of the workweek. This region is the typically more windy and it is farther away from the high pressure center. Across northeastern Kentucky and southern Ohio, specifically the lower Scioto Valley, low winds and more sheltered locations will see temperatures drop into the lower 50s. The regional-scale surface pressure pattern has not changed much, with broad high pressure still dominant along the East Coast.
738 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 (Through Wednesday) Ridging continues to build aloft over the southeast, high pressure remains dominant and anchored over the Carolinas. Expect overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s with daytime highs in the low to mid 80s.
355 PM MDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Showers associated with a northeastward propagating mid-level short wave trough have mostly dissipated across the San Juan Mountains and southern Uncompahgre Plateau this afternoon. In fact, the forecast area is expected to remain dry as the trough in the southern stream pushes off to the east on Wednesday while the system in the northern stream approaches, but stays just northwest of the area at 12Z/Thu. There is a slight chance that snow showers could break out over the higher reaches of the eastern Uinta Mountains late Wednesday night ahead of the storm.
219 PM PDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Cooler temperatures and an unsettled weather pattern are anticipated across mid to late week. Ridging aloft remains in place, resulting in generally light winds and temperatures in the 50s and 60s, with a few 40s over the mountains at this time. As we transition into midweek, an upper trough, currently off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, will begin to deepen and progress south-southeastward into the day on Wednesday. The best chances for accumulating precipitation will be across the high terrain of the Coastal Range, Sierra, and southern Cascades, although some light rain showers may sneak into adjacent portions of the Foothills and northern Sacramento Valley.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a ridge is centered over the Southeast U. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Mid-Atlantic. Winds will become more southerly tomorrow as the high drifts eastward.
Forecast details: Showers and thunderstorm continue to form in northern WI, north of a warm front, and in an area of low-level moisture convergence and upper level divergence with a coupled upper jet. The warm front had pushed into our southern counties, with OSH reporting temperatures in the lower 70s. Heavy rainfall will continue to surge across the northwest half of the forecast area this evening, then gradually sag southeast with the cold front overnight. Forcing tapers off and the cold front shifts southeast later tonight into Wednesday morning, allowing showers to diminish, but not totally end. Highs on Wednesday should range from the lower to middle 50s far north to the lower to middle 60s south.
The breezy conditions were caused by the robust high pressure system, which is moving southward and covering the region. The wind forecast for tonight may need to be slightly adjusted due to the higher winds. A potent high pressure shifting southward over Florida will promote moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes over the Florida Keys waters.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) High pressure positioned over the area will keep a precip-free forecast in place through the short term.