Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
229 AM MST Thu Feb 9 2023 Upper level ridging will provide a dry end to the week. To start the period, upper level ridging is building across the western CONUS, slowly shifting eastward. An approaching upper trough from the northeastern Pacific Ocean will help usher the upper ridge eastward Friday, turning flow in the mid levels more westerly. Strong westerly winds will be present aloft, but without appreciable ridgetop stability, these strong winds are largely expected to remain decoupled from the surface. The aforementioned upper level trough will split, sending most support for precipitation toward the Southwest US.
327 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 Key Messages: * Strong northwest winds are expected today and tonight behind the passage of a cold front. * Mainly during the afternoon and evening hours today, a rain-snow mix (but mainly snow) will move through associated with the cold front.
(Today through Friday) Upper system quickly lifting northeastward through Missouri toward the Great Lakes, with the next trough quickly on it's heels moving through the northern Rockies. Line of prefrontal convection has moved eastward into Alabama and our eastern coastal waters, but the actual cold front was still near Interstate 55 at 3 AM CST. There are some scattered showers right along the cold front, but any significant heavy rain threat across the CWA has ended, and the Flood Watch has been cancelled. Some possibility that the stationary front even gets pulled back to the west a bit as the trough digs.
There have been upstream reports of freezing drizzle, and forecast soundings indicate a sufficiently deep 1km plus low-level saturated layer for this freezing drizzle potential to continue into the mid-morning across parts of central and northeastern SD. Clouds clear quickly from north to south from the late morning into the early afternoon as drier, cooler air follows in behind a cold front. Ongoing warm air advection along with southwest 925mb winds from 35 to 40 knots will be in place and lead to the gustier winds felt in the typical ridge/downslope areas.
Patchy valley fog will start today otherwise a transitory ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather.
949 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2023 Strong winds will occur both ahead of and especially behind a cold front that will move through the area today. Winds will diminish tonight as high pressure starts to build in. This high will also bring dry conditions into the weekend. The first will be along/just behind a line of showers moving in with a cold front, which is currently aligned across central IN and will continue to push eastward. This timeframe will be most concerning for our west- central OH and eastern IN counties where the High Wind Warning is located. Surface ridging will push into the region late tonight into Friday.
This trough will exit the region by morning, and with it, the snow and wind will end. Ridging builds today, and will stick around through the weekend.
There will be a lull in precipitation until about 18-19z when expect redevelopment in western Nebraska to move south through this afternoon associated with vorticity lobes in the complex upper trough.
243 AM MST Thu Feb 9 2023 Upper level trough currently over Colorado will shift southeast of the area this morning yet. Highs are expected to range from the lower 30s along the foothills to the mid 20s over the eastern plains.
Observations over the past several hours have shown fairly buoyant and convective air surging its way northward along the east side of the low. The weekend is looking fairly superb with sunshine returning and temperatures reaching into the lower 50s.
Key Messages: * Strong northwest winds are expected today and tonight behind the passage of a cold front. * Mainly during the afternoon and evening hours today, a rain-snow mix (but mainly snow) will move through associated with the cold front.
----- Cold front dropping dropping south through the forecast area, but with low clouds behihd it temps actually rise behind its passage. Cold advection is not great behind the front (in fact warmer at the sfc) but 925-850 mb cold advection is moderate at best. Been watching for any freezing drizzle and reports via social media just havent confirmed any.
415 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 Today through tonight: A cold front associated with the departing low pressure system will push east of the forecast area early this morning bringing an end to the convective rainfall and clearing skies from west to east. Gusty westerly wind will usher in cooler/drier air today, but overall, there is nothing extraordinary that stands out about the airmass.
High pressure is keeping the area mostly clear and dry this morning, with the exception of fog and low stratus in the Umpqua basin, and in the Illinois and lower Rogue valleys. As the upper level trough moves onshore Friday, a closed low will form on the southern periphery, resulting in split flow aloft.
Another cold front will move through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Thursday night. While overnight temperatures on Thursday night will not be quite as cool as tonight, colder air will surge south into Friday keeping daytime highs a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today with highs in the 60s. Northerly winds will also pick up after midnight in wake of the cold front with 15 to 20 mph winds and gusts of 25 to 30 mph into early Friday afternoon. While this front will primarily remain dry, a few areas along the coast into the Lower RGV could see a brief light shower or two on Friday.
517 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2023 Low pressure will track through the Great Lakes today bringing with some rain and patchy light freezing rain.
418 AM MST Thu Feb 9 2023 Most recent upper air models show upper ridge over the west coast with toughing on the lee side of the Rockies. Current surface analysis depicts low pressure over northern Minnesota, and a cold front stretching east to west through southern North Dakota. The higher snowfall amounts are expected in the northern Black Hills, where upslope enhancement will aid in higher snowfall rates. Later today and into the weekend the upper ridge slides over the Rockies and the trough shifts east of the northern plains, with 850 temps rebounding to around 5C Friday.
As the warm front continues to lift north and midlevel dry slot moves overhead later this morning precip will become lighter and more scattered. Lows dip near freezing but anticipate dry conditions by the time this colder air arrives. Sprawling high pressure builds over the region late Fri and persists through the weekend. Initially cooler (still slightly above average, though) temps on Sat will moderate for Sun with an overall sunny and pleasant weekend anticipated.
(Today and tonight) Patchy fog and areas of freezing fog have been observed this morning along an area from Chickasha to Paul's Valley to Ardmore. Freezing Fog and Dense Fog Advisories will be issued momentarily. This reinforcing cold front pushes into northwest Oklahoma this morning, reaching PNC- OKC-LAW by mid-morning and exiting by late afternoon or evening.
824 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2023 High pressure ridging across the area from the Atlantic will shift east as a cold front settles across the deep south and into north FL. This front stalls across that region for Friday as a deep upper low digs into the northern Gulf region.
349 AM MST Thu Feb 9 2023 The surface cold front has pushed through much of the CWA and did bring some impressive snowfall as it moved through. The remainder of today will see cloud cover slowly decreasing as a high pressure builds in. Northerly flow on the backside of the front and trough will usher in some cooler high temperatures. Central and southern valleys will run about 5 to 10 degrees below normal and 10 to 15 degrees cooler for the northern valleys. Friday, the ridge axis moves overhead which will bring a sunny day.
403 AM PST Thu Feb 9 2023 Warmer today and a little cooler Friday.
We'll see a short break in precip before a thin line of convection pushes east ahead of a cold front. Temperatures will be a bit cooler Thursday night into Friday morning, but still above freezing.
533 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 (Today and tonight) Patchy fog and areas of freezing fog have been observed this morning along an area from Chickasha to Paul's Valley to Ardmore. Freezing Fog and Dense Fog Advisories will be issued momentarily. This reinforcing cold front pushes into northwest Oklahoma this morning, reaching PNC- OKC-LAW by mid-morning and exiting by late afternoon or evening.
240 AM MST Thu Feb 9 2023 High pressure will slide across eastern Montana today behind yesterdays cold front. Temperatures will slightly cooler today but will warm quickly on Friday as the upper ridge along the west coast moves over the Rockies.
543 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 Today through tonight: A cold front associated with the departing low pressure system will push east of the forecast area early this morning bringing an end to the convective rainfall and clearing skies from west to east. Gusty westerly wind will usher in cooler/drier air today, but overall, there is nothing extraordinary that stands out about the airmass.
High pressure will bring dry and stable conditions across the region through the remainder of the week, and into the upcoming weekend.
Coupled with any daytime heating and mixing to the surface, expect winds through after sunset Thursday evening before seeing some subsiding with gusts up to 20-30 mph into Friday morning as the gradient weakens with high pressure building in from the west and the low pushing further east. With northwest flow aloft continuing across the high plains at the end of the workweek, expect dry conditions to continue as ensemble data suggests no precipitation chances through mid next work week.
Low pressure in northeast Missouri was headed toward southern Lake Michigan, and precipitation with this system was edging into southern WI. Highs should be in the lower to middle 30s. North winds will gust to 25 to 35 mph in eastern WI, but the high moisture content of the snow will limit blowing/drifting. Lingering light snow will taper off in eastern WI early this evening, but light lake-effect snow showers or freezing drizzle will occur in far northern WI, especially Vilas County.
426 AM MST Thu Feb 9 2023 Upper level trough currently over Colorado will shift southeast of the area this morning yet. Highs are expected to range from the lower 30s along the foothills to the mid 20s over the eastern plains.
439 AM MST Thu Feb 9 2023 The surface cold front has pushed through much of the CWA and did bring some impressive snowfall as it moved through. Even so, wouldn't be surprised to see a few bursts of snow under the upper level trough through the morning hours. The remainder of today will see cloud cover slowly decreasing as a high pressure builds in. Northerly flow on the backside of the front and trough will usher in some cooler high temperatures. Central and southern valleys will run about 5 to 10 degrees below normal and 10 to 15 degrees cooler for the northern valleys. Friday, the ridge axis moves overhead which will bring a sunny day.
North-northeast winds could be seen on surface observations spreading down from southwest Utah into our region early this morning in response to low pressure system diving over the Four Corners area. especially along the lower Colorado River Valley from Laughlin-Bullhead City to Lake Havasu.
Longer snow duration from Cedar County up thru Dubuque and Jo Daviess with high rates will overcome above freezing sfc layer for 4-7 inches of wet snow, but then compacting and melting as snow lets up this afternoon making true snowfall measurements tough to do. Then revamping southwesterlies look to usher acrs a mainly rain making cyclone for late Tue into early Wed, and will then have to watch for another ejecting low for a potential winter storm next Thursday.
A dry cold front will push through the Four Corners today resulting in a return of colder temperatures and gusty northeast winds.
Upper level ridging will provide a dry end to the week. To start the period, upper level ridging is building across the western CONUS, slowly shifting eastward. An approaching upper trough from the northeastern Pacific Ocean will help usher the upper ridge eastward Friday, turning flow in the mid levels more westerly. Strong westerly winds will be present aloft, but without appreciable ridgetop stability, these strong winds are largely expected to remain decoupled from the surface. The aforementioned upper level trough will split, sending most support for precipitation toward the Southwest US.
554 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 (Today through Friday) Upper system quickly lifting northeastward through Missouri toward the Great Lakes, with the next trough quickly on it's heels moving through the northern Rockies. Line of prefrontal convection has moved eastward into Alabama and our eastern coastal waters, but the actual cold front was still near Interstate 55 at 3 AM CST. There are some scattered showers right along the cold front, but any significant heavy rain threat across the CWA has ended, and the Flood Watch has been cancelled. Some possibility that the stationary front even gets pulled back to the west a bit as the trough digs.
922 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 With the passing of the cold front, gusty winds are ongoing. There have been upstream reports of freezing drizzle, and forecast soundings indicate a sufficiently deep 1km plus low-level saturated layer for this freezing drizzle potential to continue into the mid-morning across parts of central and northeastern SD. Clouds clear quickly from north to south from the late morning into the early afternoon as drier, cooler air follows in behind a cold front. Ongoing warm air advection along with southwest 925mb winds from 35 to 40 knots will be in place and lead to the gustier winds felt in the typical ridge/downslope areas.
Water vapor imagery highlights the eastward progression of the mean-layer ridge, corroborated by the weak height falls sampled on the 12Z FL RAOBs. East to southeast winds average 16 to 19 knots at the marine observation platforms, with frequent gusts in the low 20s. Temperatures are in the lower 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
Dry conditions then become favored on Friday and persist through the weekend under the influence of high pressure.
(Tonight) Cold front currently moving into far northeast Oklahoma this afternoon as positively tilted upper trough approaches from the northwest. (Tonight through Thursday) The main upper low, currently over southern NM, will shift east across Texas during the day Friday. Upper low tracks a little too far south across the ARKLATX region before becoming better organized, thus limiting a more significant winter weather threat. Still expect some light snow accumulations in the higher terrain over SE OK and maybe far NW AR before system moves well southeast of the region Friday evening. Warming trend expected over the weekend as weak upper ridge develops.
Upper-air pattern from this afternoon features a closed low moving across the Upper- Midwest and another digging trough through the Central Plains and into New Mexico. This secondary trough will gradually push eastward through north central Texas and Oklahoma. In response to this advancing upper trough, precipitation will quickly move into the northern portion of our forecast area, mainly for southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and far northeast Texas. A few models continue to show the trough closing off over our area and almost lingering a little longer. This trough should usher in enough cool air to at least get us below our seasonable normals for tonight, Friday and Friday night. Friday night could also see a return of some sub freezing temperatures across portions of the area.
106 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2023 The region will be between high pressure to the east, and frontal system to the west this afternoon. Moisture will move in off the Atlantic due to the flow around the high. Clouds will also increase from the west northwest through the afternoon ahead of the cold front. In addition, a warm front will begin to lift north into the region later this afternoon. The strength of the southwest flow will help to pin the east coast sea breeze to closer to the coast, which will allow the warmer readings to build further to the east. Otherwise, moisture will be increasing tonight ahead of a slow moving cold front approaching from the northwest-west, with a chance of showers overnight.
146 PM MST Thu Feb 9 2023 Latest upper air analysis shows a deepening trough over the Desert Southwest, with a ridge moving onto the West Coast. The cold front continued diving south with the trough, now well into New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. The window for any snow to occur will end as the 500mb trough axis moves through the forecast area this evening. Highs will be warmer, with a clear sky, as the upper level ridge moves overhead. Friday night southwest winds will be a breezy, allowing lows to be a few degrees warmer than tonight. Latest ECMWF/GFS showing amplified upper ridge traversing the central Plains over the 24 hour period to start off the upcoming weekend.
The mid-level ridge continues to shift further southeast across the Bahamas today, due to some mid-level troughing over the Plains shifting further east. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
(Rest of today through Friday) As the west Atlantic body of high pressure moves eastward, the remainder of the week will remain primarily dry.
1044 AM MST Thu Feb 9 2023 The surface cold front has pushed through much of the CWA and did bring some impressive snowfall as it moved through. Even so, wouldn't be surprised to see a few bursts of snow under the upper level trough through the morning hours. The remainder of today will see cloud cover slowly decreasing as a high pressure builds in. Northerly flow on the backside of the front and trough will usher in some cooler high temperatures. Central and southern valleys will run about 5 to 10 degrees below normal and 10 to 15 degrees cooler for the northern valleys. Friday, the ridge axis moves overhead which will bring a sunny day.
1057 AM MST Thu Feb 9 2023 Aviation Section Updated Upper level ridging will provide a dry end to the week. To start the period, upper level ridging is building across the western CONUS, slowly shifting eastward. An approaching upper trough from the northeastern Pacific Ocean will help usher the upper ridge eastward Friday, turning flow in the mid levels more westerly. Strong westerly winds will be present aloft, but without appreciable ridgetop stability, these strong winds are largely expected to remain decoupled from the surface. The aforementioned upper level trough will split, sending most support for precipitation toward the Southwest US.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Upper trough over NM today swinging into W TX this afternoon and tonight. On Friday this trough will slowly push east as ridge becomes centered over the 4 Corners region and builds into the area during the evening. A cold front moving through the CWA today will result in cooler temperatures tonight.
The large upper trof takes on an increasingly positive tilt through Friday while advancing slowly eastward, with an upper low beginning to evolve within the portion of the trof over the south central states. A line of convection currently oriented near the I-65 corridor gradually weakens while continuing east, but additional convective development is expected today in the wake of the line of convection along the advancing cold front. As the large scale upper trof pattern advances slowly eastward on Friday, an overrunning flow over the area will continue to support likely to categorical pops east of I-65 with lesser pops further to the west. Highs today range from the mid 60s to lower 70s, then Friday will be cooler with highs mostly near 60 except for the lower/mid 60s near the coast.
Given the way this winter has been going can't rule it out completely even with some westerly fetch to the wind, so will have a patchy fog mention in spots that the high res models are in agreement on lower visibility. Even with a cold start and some patchy fog possible Friday morning, temps should start to recover quickly as upper ridging builds in and warm air advection comes into the area.
An upper trough moving by to the north could help produce lake enhanced snow showers across the Northwoods tonight.
Throughout the day, we have struggled to maintain a saturated low level layer deep enough to support precipitation aside from occasional light snow or freezing drizzle. Trended slightly warmer than the NBM given the expected sunshine and southwesterly wind, especially downstream of the MN Buffalo Ridge.
1138 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 Surface analysis late this morning places a cold front from Middle Tennessee south through Western Alabama and into Southern Mississippi.
1124 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 Skies have cleared out from the west as an upper trough axis lifts northeast of MS and subtle upper ridging builds in from the northwest. Most of the Lower Miss Valley is expected to remain clear and dry today. Highs will climb to above average temps today, ranging from the lower to upper 60s. /AJ/ Today through tonight: A cold front associated with the departing low pressure system will push east of the forecast area early this morning bringing an end to the convective rainfall and clearing skies from west to east. Gusty westerly wind will usher in cooler/drier air today, but overall, there is nothing extraordinary that stands out about the airmass.
We will be on the backside of the passing low pressure system, which has brought much snow to the area today. Temperatures will be above normal, with much of the area in the low 40s.
Precipitation type expected to switch back to liquid for many as an area of above freezing surface temperatures sags southeast. Expect snow as the main precipitation type with ice nucleation and flirting with the freezing line at the surface could see bouts of liquid. Have continued a rain/snow mix given above freezing surface temperatures with upstream colder temperatures resultant of latent cooling. While the current perturbation lifts over the Great Lakes, the longer upstream positively tilted trough, evident on satellite water vapor imagery, sags east-southeast across the forecast area tonight. Expecting a closed low over the southern Rockies to lift northeast as an incoming wave off the Pacific acts as a kicker. As the low lifts to the northeast, it will become an open wave and looks to gradually diminish in strength.
Skies have cleared out from the west as an upper trough axis lifts northeast of MS and subtle upper ridging builds in from the northwest. Most of the Lower Miss Valley is expected to remain clear and dry today. Highs will climb to above average temps today, ranging from the lower to upper 60s. /AJ/ Today through tonight: A cold front associated with the departing low pressure system will push east of the forecast area early this morning bringing an end to the convective rainfall and clearing skies from west to east. Gusty westerly wind will usher in cooler/drier air today, but overall, there is nothing extraordinary that stands out about the airmass.
The cold front has swept through our area, and behind it, dry and clearing skies prevail. Low temperatures do cool several degrees compared to last night, but are still forecast to remain a few degrees above freezing.
1247 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2023 Strong winds will occur both ahead of and especially behind a cold front that will move through the area today. Winds will diminish tonight as high pressure starts to build in. This high will also bring dry conditions into the weekend. The first will be along/just behind a line of showers moving in with a cold front, which is currently aligned across central IN and will continue to push eastward. This timeframe will be most concerning for our west- central OH and eastern IN counties where the High Wind Warning is located. Surface ridging will push into the region late tonight into Friday.