Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
149 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 A large surface anticyclone will remain centered over Southeast Michigan through 18Z Friday. Northeastern CONUS trough will become a closed low over northern Maine with an associated ridge extending across the Great Lakes today. This will translate to a day with below normal temperatures in the low to mid 60s for inland areas and 50s across the Lake Huron shoreline areas.
Cooler than normal lows with near normal highs the next couple of days.
318 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 High pressure will remain in control today through the upcoming Holiday weekend with fair weather.
Core surface anticyclone anchored near James Bay coupled with departing upper troughing over the Northeast has allowed for light to occasionally breezy northeast flow across the region today, and with flow off the cool waters of Lake Huron coupled with low single digits 925/850 hPa temps, high temps have been capped in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Abundant sunshine has helped to make it feel a few degrees warmer however. Building upper thicknesses will aid in gradually warming temps Friday and continuing through Memorial Day - rising through the 70s and eventually into the lower 80s by Memorial Day.
314 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 High pressure will remain in control today through the upcoming Holiday weekend with fair weather.
A trough of low pressure moving across California into the Great Basin is triggering isolated showers and thunderstorms over northern Esmeralda County and isolated showers over northern Mohave County this afternoon. The trough of low pressure will only shift slightly east on Friday with similar weather conditions as we saw today.
A back door cold front will push through the region this evening. Slightly cooler and less humid weather is expected for Friday. An upper low will push toward the area this weekend resulting in near normal temperatures and small chances for rain mainly across the Tennessee River Valley and northeast Mississippi.
The short term weather pattern will consist of an upper level long wave trough over the western United States and an upper level ridge over the Plains. VFR conditions are then forecast trough late evening.
139 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Strong high pressure builds in through the first part of the weekend in continued dry conditions. High pressure is building down from southern Ontario this morning and will be over the Great Lakes region into the weekend. High temperatures will be cooler today in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the lower 40s. Overall, a quiet holiday weekend is in store as high pressure anchors over the Great Lakes.
At the surface an inverted trough sets up over the Plateau tomorrow which will be the focus of showers and storms during the afternoon.
1232 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Currently a weak, dry cold front is laid out from northeast Miser, through the Metro East, and into southern Illinois. Most of the forecast area will end up on the cool side of the front with highs in the mid to upper 70s, while central and southeast Missouri will be south of the front and temperatures will peak in the low 80s. While the passage of the cold front through the remainder of the forecast area today will drop temperatures and dewpoints, the main thrust of dry air won't arrive until overnight Thursday into Friday. At the surface the high over the Great Lakes will persist through the weekend, and combined with the lack of moisture return, will keep the holiday weekend dry.
1256 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023 The stubborn trough set up across the western US remains in place, keeping an active weather pattern across Wyoming. Otherwise, warmer than normal high temperatures will continue this afternoon. While the scattered convection will end after sunset this evening, less widespread showers will linger overnight as the trough nudges closer and the nose of a slight jet maxima pushes into southern Wyoming. The general troughiness continues through the weekend as low pressure remains to our west and a blocking high to the east. Looking ahead, not much change is expected through the weekend, with continued convection chances and warmer than normal temperatures.
KBYX radar is detecting isolated showers across the Florida Keys coastal waters, along with a reverse cumulus cloud line that developed along the Lower Keys that produced a few thunderstorms. The mid to upper level trough axis remains over the area this afternoon, which is not quite as conducive to widespread shower development across the forecast area as yesterday when it was located to our west. The more active pattern will slowly come to an end as the mid to upper level trough shifts eastward. Drier air will filter in on the heels of the trough, which will act to gradually limit rain chances as we head into the weekend. The ECMWF has dew points dropping into the upper 60s, however, most other guidance leaves them in the lower 70s range.
This will make for a challenging PoP forecast the next several days, given the low predictability in these type of patterns. a weak upper trough approaching from the west, amidst broad low-level confluence and a weakly/uncapped airmass, will continue to support isolated to widely scattered showers/storms across the region into the evening. upper ridging moving in from the west combined with drier air attempting to advect in from the east should tend to confine hit-or-miss shower/storm chances to mainly the western half of Kansas and the adjacent High Plains.
239 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 High pressure over the Great Lakes region is pumping cooler and drier air into the Mid Mississippi Valley Region this afternoon. With dew point temperatures forecast to drop into the upper 30s and 40s, the lows tonight will only be limited by how much radiation the earth can dump before sunrise.
1227 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Dry and quiet conditions are expected to prevail today as dry air moves in and high pressure takes over.
121 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 High pressure will remain in control today through the upcoming Holiday weekend with fair weather.
Synoptic pattern is depicting an elongated area of low pressure over the Rockies, extending into Nevada tpday. Model solutions are showing the closed upper low moving slightly to the south.
Drier air will continue to push into to the region as a trough remains in place over the west coast. With this trough over the west coast we will see gusty afternoon southwest winds (gusts between 30- 35 mph). A trough located just west of the state is forecast by the majority of ensemble members to persist over the next 7 days.
Upper ridging will continue to slowly move into the western Great Lakes tonight and into tomorrow. Little will change in the surface pattern over the next few days, with high pressure to our east and a trough over the western Plains. Some winds could get close to advisory criteria in the Devils Lake Basin, but seems to be on the higher side of the ensemble members so will keep headlines off for now. With the upper ridging moving slightly eastward tomorrow, there are some ensemble members that have some convection approaching the Devils Lake Basin late Friday into Friday night. The period starts with an upper level ridge over the forecast area.
After the MCS eventually dissipates, drier weather will settle into the region as an upper- level ridge crawls into the region (was expected to move in last night). With less cloud cover than today expected tomorrow, and increased subsidence associated with the approaching ridge, bumped up tomorrow's highs by a degree or two reflecting upper 80s to lower 90s across the coastal areas and mid 90s across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.
244 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 High pressure will prevail across the North Country into the upcoming holiday weekend.
302 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 The latest surface analysis is pretty quiet as high pressure over Ontario is in place.
Morning satellite also looks similar to the last few mornings with widespread cloud cover blanketing the forecast area with the exception of the highest peaks. All in all, a cooler more damp day in store for the Bay Area and Central Coast. (Today and tonight) An upper level low remains over eastern Oregon and northern Idaho this morning with a trailing trough axis extending into central California. As such, stratus has once again filled into much of the region with temperatures generally holding in the low/mid 50s at this hour.
The forecast area remains situated on the lee side of a mid/upper level trough that encompasses much of the Southeast United States. This, as high pressure centered well north of the region maintains northerly flow across the CWA. /19/ Dry air is in place as an upper trough is keeping flow northerly. This is likely to continue today and tonight as a cold front sags south. Skies should be fairly clear and nighttime lows should cool into the lower 60s.
117 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 High pressure will continue to build into the North Country today and prevail into the upcoming holiday weekend.
114 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes region through the entire Memorial Day weekend.
Not seeing a lot of opportunity for rain as the mid/upper level ridge builds in from the west to end the week.
1117 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 A cool airmass will be over the area through tonight as Canadian high pressure builds into the region. High pressure centered near James Bay will expand over the Great Lakes providing fair weather through tonight.
1149 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 A cool airmass will be over the area through tonight as Canadian high pressure builds into the region. High pressure centered near James Bay will expand over the Great Lakes providing fair weather through tonight. A ridge of high pressure, aloft and at the surface will remain anchored over the Great Lakes region this period, holding an upper level low and its associated precipitation at bay across the mid- Eastern seaboard.
Skies have largely cleared as high pressure settles into the region. However easterly/onshore winds off the lake should keep it cooler by the lake. Will see another chilly night tonight under mostly clear skies, subsidence, and light winds, which will aid in ample radiative cooling and overnight lows bottoming out in the lower 40s with a few of the cooler locations dipping into the upper 30s. Friday is looking pretty similar to today with the exception of more of a southeasterly component to the winds, thus expecting slightly warmer temps in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows in the mid 40s.
303 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Dry conditions today, and for the next few days, as high pressure begins to build back into the region. Chances for frost early tomorrow morning are possible as overnight temperatures drop into the low- to mid-30s for the majority of areas. As high pressure begins to build over the region, dry conditions are expected for the next few days. A rex block will keep our area under high pressure as a slow moving upper level low develops over the southeast, and fores an upper level ridge to rotated over/through our area.
Dewpoints at the surface will mix out in the 50s this afternoon helping warm temperatures in the low to mid 80s feel more comfortable than usual. PoPs will remain relegated across the north during the peak heating hours Friday afternoon as temperatures rise into the low to mid 80s.
Convection has already begun to develop across the Rotan Ridge in New Mexico. Much of the issue is centered on the upper ridge and where the models initiate the upper ridge. Current observations have the upper ridge slightly more westward than what was initialized in most models. Storms will continue to be limited in forward speed due to the overhead ridge.
Upper level trough will remain just west of the forecast area through at least Friday. A trough will remain quasi-stationary over the Intermountain West through the short- term, maintaining steady above-normal temperatures and active weather. Strong upper level flow, steep mid- level lapse rates, and monsoon moisture fetch will allow for destabilization and the development of thunderstorms again on Friday, especially over higher terrain as the upper low remains stationary.
Tonight's complex of storms will stay well to our west as the upper level blocking pattern amplifies across the region. Otherwise, expect slightly warmer temperatures Friday afternoon with dry weather over most locations.
The longwave trough encompassing much of the Southeast United States will continue to strengthen through the end of the work week, with a mid/upper level low finally developing. This, as high pressure at the surface remains in place across the region. Highs will be a touch warmer as they top out in the mid and upper 80s.
Pattern Synopsis: A closed upper-level low will continue to pivot across Quebec/New England as amplified ridging encompasses most of the Great Plains/Great Lakes through tonight. Forecast Details: Quiet weather is expected across northern Michigan with aforementioned high pressure building in. Current confidence is that this mostly clear skies will be in place by late tonight/early Friday morning, aiding efficient radiational cooling and leading to temperatures dropping into the low 30s and even 20s across localized cold locations of northern Michigan -- bringing about another night of frost/freeze concerns away from the lakeshores. Aforementioned high pressure will lead to calm winds and mostly clear skies overnight.
1233 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 (Today through Friday) If you enjoyed the last couple of days, you can expect a fantastic run into the holiday weekend with high pressure in control across Deep South Texas. The seabreeze each afternoon will cut high temperatures a degree or two short of seasonal, with overnight lows a degree or two cooler than normal as well.
Previous Disc - Anomalous +1-2SD MSLP Canadian high pressure will sink south from Ontario into the Great Lakes today. Very dry air will accompany the seasonably strong anticyclone with pWAT values -2 to -3SD below the mean. The lows temps will be 5-10F below late May climo.
(Now through Friday) Currently on water vapor imagery a well defined upper low continues to rotate southward across central Alabama. The lower dewpoints are making it feel much more comfortable than usual for this time of year. The base of the upper trough begins to cutoff into an upper low over the Tennessee Valley on Friday. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s.
1231 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) As of this writing, a weak ridge centered over West Texas is allowing a short wave trough to move across the South Plains causing scattered severe storms just north of our county warning area. Unfortunately we can expect more of the same later this afternoon since the ridge will not be enough to suppress convection, and directional shear from southeast low level winds becoming west to northwesterly in the mid and upper levels will be tilting some updrafts once again bringing a threat for at least isolated severe storms.
Dry conditions and a mix of sunshine and mid/high level clouds will persist through the remainder of the day thanks to a backdoor front and upper low that continue to translate south across the region. The main concern through the remainder of the afternoon will be monitoring the lowering of minimum RH values as northeasterly winds will remain elevated through much of the period. Similarly, a second piece of energy will slide south around the eastern periphery of the upper high parked over the Great Lakes Region. For Friday, temperatures will be slightly cooler than today with highs generally in the 70s and lows in the mid 50s.
158 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Short Term/Marine Latest visible loop shows clear skies over the state courtesy of high pressure that is moving little. The high will move a little southeast Friday and Friday night which will allow temperatures to moderate a bit. Highs Friday around 70 and lows Friday night in the lower 40s. Light northeast winds will continue through the weekend due to high pressure camped out over the Great Lakes.
Dewpoints at the surface will mix out in the 50s this afternoon helping warm temperatures in the low to mid 80s feel more comfortable than usual. PoPs will remain relegated across the north during the peak heating hours Friday afternoon as temperatures rise into the low to mid 80s. Surface ridging is in place for the start of the short term today and tonight. While temperatures are expected to be warmer today than yesterday, the humidity will be much lower with the lower dew points.
(This evening through Friday) Very little pattern change expected the next 24 hours, with an upper level ridge remaining in place across West Texas and an upper trough out west. This pattern will support additional thunderstorm development over the higher terrain to our west and northwest this evening, with activity tracking southeast towards the Big Country and far western counties towards or just after daybreak Friday. Temperatures will be mild again tonight, with lows in the 60s, with highs on Friday in the low to mid 80s.
Above normal atmospheric moisture continues to move into the region, associated with a low pressure system centered in northeast Washington.
1119 AM MDT Thu May 25 2023 Latest analysis shows the upper trough remains in place over the western states with the upper ridge over the great plains, shifted slightly eastward compared to yesterday.
255 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 (Issued 254 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023) Tonight through Friday night: High pressure has settled into the Great Lakes region this afternoon, resulting in clear skies and light easterly to northeasterly winds across southern Wisconsin. Very low winds and clear skies will lend to rapid cooling overnight tonight, with low temperatures in the lower 40s to upper 30s expected. Friday into Friday night, light easterly to southeasterly winds will affect the area as the high continues to dominate. High temperatures will in the low to mid-70s away from the lakeshore, with lows in the mid-40s.
(This evening through Friday Night) A very typical late May kind of day continues this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 80s under a field of fair weather cumulus dotting the sky. Beyond that, expect skies to become mostly clear overnight with light E/NE winds as low temperatures settle back into the lower to mid 60s by tomorrow morning. On Friday, a weak cold front will back door its way into the area with little fanfare due to the lack of moisture in place ahead of it.
Good agreement in Ensembles that persistent low anomalous upper trough will linger in the area through tomrrow. This will result in mild temperatures near normal in the lower 80s in the valley. Forcing from the trough isn't too strong so instability present over the northern Sacramento Valley won't really be tapped into but may be a stray shower or thunderstorm there this afternoon and evening.
None of the hi-res models have captured this, so the forecast in the near term will be based off mesoanalysis and radar trends, placing the highest rain chances along a Leakey to Uvalde to Dilley line this afternoon. High temperatures on Friday will range from the lower 80s to lower 90s.
1209 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 (Rest of Today) Water vapor imagery this morning shows a trough digging south across the Southeast with an interesting circulation across northeast Alabama. Overall, a dry and warm day is expected for the Tennessee Valley with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 80s.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Upper ridge centered over Mexico extending northward across NM and TX to CO with a separate center over MN while out west a low over WA with a trough extending down across NV and CA. High temperatures expected to be a couple degrees cooler Friday in the low to mid 80s with a few 90s in Reeves and Culberson and along the Rio Grande.
This afternoon, an upper high was centered over northern Minnesota, with ridging extending up into the Canadian Prairies. Upstream troughing was centered over the western CONUS, with a closed low over eastern Oregon, and sharp south-southwest flow aloft over the forecast area. At the surface, a cold front was analyzed north- south over far western North Dakota, with a trough extending north into eastern Saskatchewan.
820 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes region through the entire Memorial Day weekend.
617 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Upper ridge centered over Mexico extending northward across NM and TX to CO with a separate center over MN while out west a low over WA with a trough extending down across NV and CA. High temperatures expected to be a couple degrees cooler Friday in the low to mid 80s with a few 90s in Reeves and Culberson and along the Rio Grande.
MMG/Glass High pressure over the Great Lakes region is pumping cooler and drier air into the Mid Mississippi Valley Region this afternoon. With dew point temperatures forecast to drop into the upper 30s and 40s, the lows tonight will only be limited by how much radiation the earth can dump before sunrise.
1022 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Large area of strong/cold high pressure continues to settle into the Great Lakes region late this evening. Pattern Synopsis: A closed upper-level low will continue to pivot across Quebec/New England as amplified ridging encompasses most of the Great Plains/Great Lakes through tonight. Forecast Details: Quiet weather is expected across northern Michigan with aforementioned high pressure building in. Current confidence is that this mostly clear skies will be in place by late tonight/early Friday morning, aiding efficient radiational cooling and leading to temperatures dropping into the low 30s and even 20s across localized cold locations of northern Michigan -- bringing about another night of frost/freeze concerns away from the lakeshores. Aforementioned high pressure will lead to calm winds and mostly clear skies overnight.
Most CAMs move storms eastward from the higher terrain across the plains this evening, though perhaps in a less organized fashion as last night, as dynamic lift today is less pronounced.
627 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 High pressure over the Great Lakes region is pumping cooler and drier air into the Mid Mississippi Valley Region this afternoon. With dew point temperatures forecast to drop into the upper 30s and 40s, the lows tonight will only be limited by how much radiation the earth can dump before sunrise.
The western periphery of an upper-level trough was situated over NWRN CA this afternoon. Cool air aloft with that trough combined with daytime surface heating was aiding in strong boundary layer destabilization and a steep lapse rate environment favorable for robust cumulus development across the interior mountains of Trinity, NERN Mendocino, and NRN Lake Counties.
1032 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes region through the entire Memorial Day weekend.
604 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 A back door cold front will push through the region this evening. Slightly cooler and less humid weather is expected for Friday. An upper low will push toward the area this weekend resulting in near normal temperatures and small chances for rain mainly across the Tennessee River Valley and northeast Mississippi.
Another cool night tonight with lows in the lower to mid 50s. A few showers are likely mainly in the higher elevations and SW Virginia this afternoon due to surface heating. With a weak cold front positioned just south of the region, dew points will remain low again tomorrow in the 50s. A strong ridge is over the Upper Midwest with high pressure anchored over the Great Lakes.