Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
154 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 A strengthening ridge of high pressure will remain centered over the Desert Southwest through the short term period. Normally this would be the perfect setup for widespread clear skies but high- based moisture embedded in the flow will lead to a "dirty ridge" with cirrus clouds streaming overhead into Monday morning. Regardless, dry weather will dominate the region through Monday with light, terrain-driven winds apart from localized gusts to 20 mph or so over the higher valleys and mountains down south. Temperatures will be on the rise through the period as the ridge builds overhead. Monday will be even warmer with highs trending 4 to 8 degrees above the seasonal norm for mid October.
1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) A cold front continues to move south across the gulf waters this afternoon with a cool and dry airmass advecting into the local region. High pressure extends from the gulf coast into Canada with a weak reinforcing front stretched from North TX, across the Ozarks, and into the Great Lakes region. Breezy northwest winds, clear skies, and slightly below normal temperatures are dominating the area today with Canadian high pressure building in.
Through Sunday: Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows closed upper level low slowly moving over northern Indiana. while clouds continue to wrap around the closed upper level low into much of the area per the latest visible satellite imagery. The forecast area will remain under the influence of the closed upper level low tonight into Sunday. cooler airmass filters into the region and temperatures are expected to remain slightly below normal Sunday.
(Today and tonight) Cold front has cleared the area this morning with winds from the northwest and dewpoints dropping into the upper 40s in southeast Alabama.
348 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler temperatures again today, with a bit more sunshine.
257 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 A positive Pacific North American pattern was well established across the lower 48. Deep troughing was analyzed over the eastern United States while an upper ridge was strengthening across the Mountain West.
The next cold front will bring a chance of showers to the Mid-South by the end of the week.
A mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify across the Southwest with the ridge axis extending northeastward into the Rockies. With rising heights and increasing thickness, temperatures are expected to moderate through the period with highs on Tue climbing into the low to mid 70s. As we move through the latter portion of the week, we expect to see rising temperatures as the mid/upper level ridge gradually translates eastward towards the Great Plains.
A cold front will push across the forecast area today with increasing northwest winds and much cooler drier air advecting across the region under mostly clear skies.
Short term models show 1031 mb surface ridging building south into SW KS through Sunday morning.
The first in a series of upper lows will drift off to the east of the Quad State this afternoon; however, a smaller (more compact) upper low is forecast to slide across Nebraska this afternoon and directly over the entire Quad State area Sunday morning. The overall upper troughing pattern will drift slowly eastward Monday with cyclonic flow across the area at the surface. Temperatures are expected to remain cooler than average through this forecast issuance with high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. For comparison, average high temperatures for this time of year are in the low 70s and average lows are in the upper 40s.
Monday will see slightly cooler highs, but still generally in the upper 60s/mid 70s.
156 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Ridge of high pressure and downslope southwesterly winds will provide warmer and dry conditions over the next few days. For Monday expect temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal, in the low to mid 70s.
High pressure builds in midweek with moderating temperatures afterwards. Wind advisory for the southern Blue Ridge expires at 8am. 2)Rain showers scattered in the mountains, some snow possible at the highest elevations tonight. Could see some wet snowflakes above 4000 ft leading to a dusting on grassy surfaces in places like Mount Rogers, Burkes Garden, Beech Mountain and the higher ridges of western Greenbrier. 2: Rain showers west of the Blue Ridge 3. An upper trough will maintain its control over the weather pattern through the middle of the week. Closer to the surface, upslope flow will encourage cloudy and rainy conditions west of the Blue Ridge. Freezing temperatures could reach into the very highest reaches of our mountain areas, namely Mt Rogers, Greenbrier, WV and far NW North Carolina for a few hours early Monday morning.
Persistent troughing remains in the east with upper- level ridging in the west.
332 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 A compact upper low will open up as it treks southeast into southeast Missouri by daybreak and to the Purchase Area by midday.
High pressure builds in midweek with moderating temperatures afterwards. A Wind Advisory continues for the southern Blue Ridge into Sunday morning. At 8 PM EDT a cold front was analyzed from west of LYH to near MTV and this should exit our forecast area around 10 PM (02Z). The 00Z/15 RNK sounding revealed winds above 900 mb to be 30-35 knots and with good mixing, wind gusts approaching or just exceeding advisory criteria are still expected for the higher elevations of the southern Blue Ridge, especially through 09Z (5 AM EDT). 2: Rain showers west of the Blue Ridge 3. Strong upper trough of of low pressure will remain over the region through the first half of the week promoting considerable cloudiness, colder than normal temperatures, and scattered rain showers.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated low pressure over southwest PA and high pressure that stretched from the Canadian Prairie into the northern Plains.
Some residual moisture/saturation lingers within the lower levels keeping low clouds around early this morning. Underneath low clouds, temperatures will likely remain above freezing. This should help temps to the freezing mark, and allow the opportunity for fog. Upper ridging continues to build into the area out of the west on Monday.
334 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 A trough will remain over the region with below normal temperatures for the first half of the week.
As the low works it's way up the coast some wrap around moisture is keeping a cloud deck in place and could create some precipitation cross areas of northern GA this afternoon. The cloud coverage will limit today's highs to the low 60s along and north of I-85. A few of the models have a chance for showers in eastern GA this afternoon, and while confidence is not high there is enough lift in that area along the remains of the cold front to spark a few showers. Gusty NW winds as the low continues to push up the coast are expected to continue into the early part of the week. Some locally higher gusts are possible across the higher elevations of northern GA.
251 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Cooler air will filter in today. Additional cooler and drier air will filter into the region for Monday into mid week.
Surface ridging will continue to dominate across the region with the ridge axis continuing to bisect the FA.
Through today and into Monday high pressure to the west will gradually weaken and slide south, though higher pressure will largely dominate the region keeping the area dry. The high pressure and declining moisture in the midlevels will allow for clearing skies during the day Monday, at least across the western 2/3 of the CWA as there may continue to be lake effect clouds in the eastern parts of the CWA.
1229 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 WV imagery depicts a strong upper level ridge set in place across mush of the Rocky Mountains extending north through the CWA and into Montana. A disturbance is over the Pacific northwest with a finger of PFJ extending over the aforementioned ridge.
Northerly flow will allow for cooler high temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees both today and tomorrow. Those along the immediate coast will drop into the low 60s.
103 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 An area of low pressure will move off the East Coast tonight with rain showers ending across southern areas.
- Rain chances return for the end of the work week but amounts on the low end (only a 20% shot for 1/4" or more). Bits of upper level energy could rotate into the trough with periods of cold air advection, favorable lapse rates promoting additional lift. Countering will be weak high pressure that meanders west-east across the region.
(Today through Monday Night ) An upper level low in the Midwest will move to the east coast by tonight. An upper ridge will expand over the southwest U. This ridge moves into the Plains Monday night. High pressure continues to build over the area this morning.
1148 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 (This evening through Sunday night) A cold front is passing through the area this afternoon and on into the coastal waters. Sunday into Monday an upper level low moves across the upper midwest and off the east coast trailing a trough axis across or just to the north of our area. The upstream arm of the trough is oriented roughly N-S and will bring cooler air on north winds to the area. High Temperatures Sunday will be in the low 70s, dropping to the upper 60s on Monday.
1028mb elongated high pressure will slowly slide down the plains states through the course of the short term.
The remnants of Super Typhoon Bolaven are wrapped up in a deep trough off the Pacific Northwest Coast, which is pumping that moisture outward and towards us. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge centered over the U. Southwest is ridging north into the northern Rockies. The end result is a warm, moist air mass over the region causing a lot of cloud cover, but subsidence due to the ridge suppressing any significant precipitation. Towards the fringes of the ridge, some rain is likely this morning, mainnly affecting northwest Montana with minor rain amounts. Monday morning, southwest winds start to increase ahead of a cold front that will arrive that evening or overnight. Ahead of the front, near record high temperatures in the low to mid 70s are forecast for western Montana.
1228 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (This evening through Monday) Large scale upper troughing currently located over the Upper Midwest will translate SEwrd thru the period with an associated sfc cyclone moving off the E Coast by Sun afternoon. In response -- and as upper ridging builds over the Wrn CONUS -- flow aloft over AR will quickly become NWrly and amplify with a decent vort max progged to brush Nrn/NErn AR tonight into Sun.
The moisture layer becomes increasingly shallow tomorrow and with the majority of the low-level lift occurring below this shallow layer, the chance for additional light drizzle/sprinkles is lower than today but not zero. Temperatures will peak Sunday about 15 degrees below normal and a few degrees cooler than today. MRM Sky conditions will finally begin to clear overnight Sunday into Monday as dry air is advected into the region along northerly low to mid-level flow along the eastern side of a ridge across the western CONUS.
1223 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler, Cloudy, Drizzle/Rain Tonight - Gradual Warm Up Through The Week Discussion: Deep H5 trough has moved over the Great Lakes Region as well as the attendant surface cyclone. The cold front is well into the southeast CONUS. The lower Missouri River Valley is still on the backside of the cyclonic flow. By tomorrow afternoon, NAM and RAP soundings are relatively dry in the lowest 2500ft which should bring an end to most drizzle if it is ongoing. Monday, H5 ridge just west of the Rockies begins to amplify and will push the deep trough pattern into the Atlantic Coast.
1211 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Cool surface ridging draped over the region this afternoon will remain largely unchanged tonight under northwest flow. NBM's lows tonight remain a bit too mild for what should be another strong radiational cooling event, so opted for a blend of the cooler bias- corrected guidance. However, this coverage of freezing temps currently looks too sparse for a freeze warning.
(Today through Monday) Today, a cold front, in association with a low pressure system situated over the Great Lakes and an accompanying upper-level trough, will descend through the Florida peninsula. By Monday, significant temperature drops can be expected across the region in association with the aforementioned cold front.
A prefrontal trough axis is across the Keys this morning, with scattered showers and storms moving east-northeast along the boundary. Portions of the Lower Keys picked up more than an inch of rainfall since midnight, although the showers and storms have shifted south towards the Reef over the past couple of hours. The eastern node will spill south today and tonight, shoving the mean layer ridge centered over the Caribbean to the east into the western North Atlantic. By this evening, the first of several spokes of CAA will be nearing the Keys, and a narrow line of showers will accompany the leading edge of cooler and drier air.
High temperatures will largely moderate and be well above normal each day, although a cold front may shave off a few degrees near the Four Corners by mid-week. Temperatures are forecast to remain well above normal through the upcoming week due to strong ridging over the West.
An UL ridge/high will build over the Desert SW this afternoon, which will send our highs back above normal.
306 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Today through Monday Night: A warming trend will bring widespread highs in the 70s by Monday as a broad ridge builds northeast into the area, along with relatively light winds and dry conditions.
High pressure will build across the area through Monday, bringing dry and stable conditions with a gradual warming trend.
A trough will remain over the region with below normal temperatures for the first half of the week.
545 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Scattered showers are expected through early in the week under a trough of low pressure, and a cool northerly wind.
349 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Key Messages: 1) After a very cold morning, warmer today with near seasonal temperatures. An upper ridge of high pressure over the Desert SW will strengthen through the short term, providing for dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures. Freezing temperatures for portions of the plains this morning are expected to start warming back up by 9 AM, with highs in the 60s for most locations by this afternoon. A cold and dry night tonight under clear skies should mean another round of freezing temps for portions of the plains, especially farther east along the KS border.
556 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (Today through Monday) Upper level troughing deepens over the eastern states while upper level ridging builds over the western states resulting in a dry northwesterly flow aloft.
618 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler temperatures again today, with a bit more sunshine.
755 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Aviation - Cloudy With Light Rain or Drizzle Possible Later Today Upper troughing continues today with N/NE upper flow over the Great Lakes and similar low level flow helping generate lake effect rain showers mainly over the open waters of Lake Michigan. As PVA occurs with the trough axis moving through from 18z-00z and saturation develops in the 925mb-600mb layer along with omegas throughout that layer, some light rain or drizzle may develop just about anywhere during the afternoon into late evening hours.
Much colder today in the wake of the cold front. Rain may turn to light snow late tonight in the highest elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains. Discussion: A deep trough remains over the Eastern U. Today will be much colder due to cloud cover and northerly winds behind the cold front. Rain may transition to light snow in the highest elevations (5000 ft and above) of the East Tennessee Mountains late tonight after midnight. Temps even in these highest elevations will likely stay above freezing until 4 to 5 am. HREF ensemble has one to two inches during this time but snowfall accumulation probabilities are low with probabilities of one inch only on the highest peaks.
High amplitude ridging is now in place across the Desert Southwest. Ridging will continue to build through Monday, with tomorrow forecasted high in Phoenix set to break the daily record (still around a 40-60% chance of this occurring; 70-80% chance of tying the daily record). Heading through the middle of the week, a weak trough traversing across the Intermountain West is considerably weaker compared to previous ensemble runs.
621 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (Today and tonight) Cold front has cleared the area this morning with winds from the northwest and dewpoints dropping into the upper 40s in southeast Alabama.
High pressure will build in towards midweek which will allow temperatures to warm closer to normal. Narrow band of light rain in the lower Scioto Valley will continue south through northeast Kentucky early this morning. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 40s with highs in the lower to mid 50s.
439 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 WV imagery depicts a strong upper level ridge set in place across mush of the Rocky Mountains extending north through the CWA and into Montana. A disturbance is over the Pacific northwest with a finger of PFJ extending over the aforementioned ridge.
* As skies clear and winds drop this evening, near to below freezing temperatures are expected across the majority of the local area by early Monday morning, and a Freeze Warning is now in effect for areas generally along and west of the highway 281 corridor.
Temperatures will also be much below average, with highs only in the low to mid 60s as a result. With decreased insolation from lingering stratus/northerly cool advection, highs will be some 10-15 degrees F below normal in the low 60s northeast to mid 60s elsewhere. Below normal lows are expected in the low-mid 40s, some 10 degrees below normal.
719 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (Today through Monday) Today, a cold front, in association with a low pressure system situated over the Great Lakes and an accompanying upper-level trough, will descend through the Florida peninsula. By Monday, significant temperature drops can be expected across the region in association with the aforementioned cold front.
With decreased insolation from lingering stratus/northerly cool advection, highs will be some 10-15 degrees F below normal in the low 60s northeast to mid 60s elsewhere. Below normal lows are expected in the low-mid 40s, some 10 degrees below normal.
500 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 A strengthening ridge of high pressure will remain centered over the Desert Southwest through the short term period. Normally this would be the perfect setup for widespread clear skies but high- based moisture embedded in the flow will lead to a "dirty ridge" with cirrus clouds streaming overhead into Monday morning. Regardless, dry weather will dominate the region through Monday with light, terrain-driven winds apart from localized gusts to 20 mph or so over the higher valleys and mountains down south. Temperatures will be on the rise through the period as the ridge builds overhead. Monday will be even warmer with highs trending 4 to 8 degrees above the seasonal norm for mid October.
630 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) An upper level low in the Midwest will move to the east coast by tonight. An upper ridge will expand over the southwest U. This ridge moves into the Plains Monday night. High pressure continues to build over the area this morning.
The cold front continues to push through the area this morning, with drier air already filtering into the northern zones.
254 AM PDT Sun Oct 15 2023 High pressure over the West Coast for the coming week with generally fair skies, warm days, and cool nights.
954 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 A trough will remain over the region with below normal temperatures for the first half of the week.
A compact upper low will open up as it treks southeast into southeast Missouri by daybreak and to the Purchase Area by midday.
A weak system will bring light showers and sprinkles Monday, mainly north of Sacramento, then warmer and drier weather returns. Ridging over the area today will lead to warmer temperatures with highs in the lower to mid 80s for the valley.
738 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Scattered showers are expected through early in the week under a trough of low pressure, and a cool northerly wind.
959 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 An upper level low situated just off to our northwest is providing just enough lift and moisture for some very light rain and drizzle at update time. Cloud cover this morning is keeping temperatures a few degrees warmer than previously forecasted. This wave will continue to pump cooler temperatures into the area from the north. but we'll see another shot at light precip on Monday afternoon as another spoke of energy rotates around the upper trough.
617 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (Today and tonight) Our area will have northwest flow aloft today and tonight, with an upper ridge extending from the Desert Southwest north to the Intermountain West, and a deep upper trough over the eastern part of the country. With indications of a reinforcement of cooler air today, temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday. Overnight lows will be mostly in the lower 40s, and may even have a few upper 30s in the most favored low-lying areas.
The remnants of Super Typhoon Bolaven are wrapped up in a deep trough off the Pacific Northwest Coast, which is pumping that moisture outward and towards us. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge centered over the U. Southwest is ridging north into the northern Rockies. The end result is a warm, moist air mass over the region causing a lot of cloud cover, but subsidence due to the ridge suppressing any significant precipitation. Towards the fringes of the ridge, some rain is likely this morning, mainly affecting northwest Montana with minor rain amounts. Monday morning, southwest winds start to increase ahead of a cold front that will arrive that evening or overnight. Ahead of the front, near record high temperatures in the low to mid 70s are forecast for western Montana.
612 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Cooler air will filter in today. Additional cooler and drier air will filter into the region for Monday into mid week.
305 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (This afternoon through Monday) On the backside of a strong cold front that pushed across the area late yesterday, temperatures are 7-12F degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago with widespread 60s (pockets of 50s from west-central to the higher elevations of far north GA). Heading into tonight/Monday, a compact upper level low currently entering western TN will continue moving SE, crossing north GA later this evening. Strong cold-air advection will drop temperatures into the lower-mid 40s for many locations overnight (even colder in the higher elevations). Sunshine starts the day tomorrow, but another spoke of energy embedded within broader long-wave trough over the eastern CONUS will generate more clouds and few light showers over far north GA.
A recently developed low pressure system across the eastern US will be in place aside a ridge across the western US.
1211 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler temperatures again today, with a bit more sunshine.
Another cool and cloudy afternoon across the region, as broad troughing continues over the eastern CONUS. The two main surface features are high pressure dropping south over the High Plains and a strong cyclone off the East Coast. Skies will finally begin to clear tonight as the high pressure to our northwest begins to approach, allowing temperatures to drop lower than previous nights.