Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Sunday) After a chilly start to this morning, where freezing temperatures are possible in some locations, abundant sunshine should lead to a warm day. While skies will remain mostly clear once again tonight, the return of southerly flow will lead to warm air advection resulting in a warmer night tonight.
An attendant surface cold front will move through the region as well, resulting in cooling temperatures tonight. With the possibility of snow falling during the daylight hours Sunday and temperatures warming to near or slightly above freezing, it seems very likely that we will see minimal accumulations and impacts with this snow.
At the onset of this forecast period, an overhead upper level ridge is located over Central America and extends northward through the U. This upper level ridge continues to dominate into Sunday, when an upstream upper level trof and the attendant surface front, quickly, slip across the region. Most moisture that falls across the plains of north central and central Montana, falls during the day, and with highs, generally, ranging from the upper 30s to the mid 40s, the precipitation across the lower elevations is forecast to fall, mostly, as rain.
(Today through Sunday night) Currently a ridge is passing over the region yielding dry and fair weather for the morning and early afternoon. This ridge will be replaced by a trough later today which will drag a dry cold front across the panhandles. This cold front will serve to only shift the wind direction to the north and push somewhat colder air across the panhandles.
315 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 - A cold front brings breezy northwest winds and periods of scattered flurries or light snow this afternoon through tonight. Surface observations show the approaching backdoor cold front with a wind shift from WNW to NW near the Interstate 94 corridor in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.
Not expecting any freezing conditions in the CWA, but lower to mid 30s temps and light winds in the N Nature Coast may see some patchy frost tonight. It will be cool with lows in the 40's in the morning but will warm up into the 60's and low 70's each day as high pressure sits overheads.
(Today through Sunday) The upper trof that brought a mixture of light rain and snow to north Alabama overnight has pushed eastward into Georgia. Despite the return of sunshine today, a very cold air mass on the back side of the upper trof will keep temperatures much below normal for late December. A nice warm-up on Sunday as low level warm air advection increase ahead of an approaching cold front, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
529 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 (Today through Sunday) The upper trof that brought a mixture of light rain and snow to north Alabama overnight has pushed eastward into Georgia. Despite the return of sunshine today, a very cold air mass on the back side of the upper trof will keep temperatures much below normal for late December. A nice warm-up on Sunday as low level warm air advection increase ahead of an approaching cold front, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Mostly cloudy today as mid and high clouds associated with an approaching trough continue to spread in from the west. Warm southwesterly flow aloft out ahead of the approaching trough will keep temperatures well above normal, with afternoon highs today ranging from mid 40s to low 50s. The approaching trough axis reaches western portions of the CWA by this afternoon, with energy then splitting this evening and overnight, which will diminish additional QPF over western portions of the CWA, and also reduce chances of rain and snow from reaching most of the eastern half of the CWA including much of Elko and White Pine counties. Cooler Sunday afternoon, though still above normal temperatures, with what's left of the light morning precipitation ending by noon across the CWA.
642 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2023 Aviation -- Window of Clear Skies Closing Up Today -- The early morning features clear skies for a large part of the area, which is helping create patchy (freezing) fog or a heavy frost as temperatures dip into the upper 20s. -- Snow Showers on Sunday -- Low pressure at the surface associated with a fairly robust upper level trough will pass through Lower Michigan on Sunday. Can't rule out light freezing drizzle at the onset around daybreak mainly in Central Michigan.
446 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 (Today and tonight) Weak upper level ridging will begin to work its way east into the area today ahead of the next trough moving onto the California coast.
(Saturday through Sunday) Dry NW flow aloft will prevail today in wake of the recent trough passage. Behind the trough, clear skies prevail early this morning and that will continue throughout the day today with plentiful sunshine. On Sunday, warm air advection will take temperatures even higher as low-level southerly flow becomes a bit more enhanced ahead of an approaching cold front. Despite that, high temperatures will still top out in the 60s across much of the region except for perhaps our far northern zones along the Ouachitas where the cold front will begin to encroach by Sunday afternoon.
On New Year's Eve, pleasant conditions will continue as surface ridging remains in place. Clear skies will stick around and southwesterly flow will help high temperatures reach the lower 60s.
Morning satellite imagery is showing area under southerly flow with an elongated trough positioned along the West Coast. Upper level ridge over the Intermountain west will continue low mixing heights through at least Sunday.
Discussion: WV imagery shows the trough axis shifting east of the Appalachian chain this afternoon with upper-level ridging beginning to build in from the west. As the troughing continues to move east and ridging builds in from the west, a gradual clearing is expected late tonight and early Sunday morning from southwest to northeast across the forecast area. Light precipitation possible across northeast TN and southwest VA early in the week, with possibly light snowfall accumulations in the highest terrain.
1037 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 The upper low that brought some light precipitation and cold temps to the region yesterday has moved to the eastern seaboard.
The low clouds will fill back in this evening. -- Window of Clear Skies Closing Up Today -- The early morning features clear skies for a large part of the area, which is helping create patchy (freezing) fog or a heavy frost as temperatures dip into the upper 20s. -- Snow Showers on Sunday -- Low pressure at the surface associated with a fairly robust upper level trough will pass through Lower Michigan on Sunday. Can't rule out light freezing drizzle at the onset around daybreak mainly in Central Michigan.
233 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 - A cold front this evening will bring a shot of cold air to the region tomorrow and tomorrow night. A cold front will sweep through the region from north to south this evening bringing colder temperatures and cloud cover tonight into tomorrow.
209 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday) The important parts: -Another night of temperatures hovering around freezing for much of the CWA. As the trough moves off to the northeast with little to no impact to the CWA, warmer air is expected to filter in behind it for new years day. Overnight lows again will hover around freezing, but tomorrow we're expecting to see temps in the low to mid 60s for much of the area.
The ridge of high pressure over eastern Idaho is finally getting pushed farther east as a trough to our west comes onshore today. This trough will move eastward and it is bringing some moisture with it, but as the trough splits most of the energy with it will track to our north and take the bulk of the moisture that way, too.
300 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2023 Weak high pressure builds in behind a dry cold front tonight.
After this wave passes to the east, a high pressure system settles in and takes over the weather pattern for the new year.
Current forecast is already on the warmer end of the guidance envelope, and confidence in raising temps more is tempered by the increasing cloud we'll see from the NW later today from a subtle wave.
A long wave, positively tilted trough stretches from the Great Lakes to near Mexico. A short wave rounding the base of this trough has sparked another broad sheath of cirrus over the southeastern Gulf.
Surface ridging will continue to build over the region, leading to quiet conditions for today. /SW/ Weather conditions will remain quiet today as global guidance highlights surface ridging building over the southeast region. Expect overnight lows to dip into the low 30s.
With increasing high cloud cover, temperatures should be warmer (but still in the single digits/near zero) across the typical mountain valley cold spots. The mild, sunny weather will come to an end on Sunday, as a very weak trough attempts to push into the region late tonight into tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon the trough is so poorly organized that I feel generous even calling it a trough. Nonetheless, there will be cooler temperatures and a modest increase in moisture aloft, leading to gloomy but mostly dry forecast. Some light snow showers are still possible in the high country, generally along and south of I-70.
(Tonight) A cold front currently slicing across Kansas will move to near the I-40 corridor across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by Sunrise on Sunday with northerly winds increasing behind the boundary. (Sunday through Saturday) Sunday will prove to be a bit colder across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with temperatures just a few degrees colder than today south of I-40 as the cold front exits the area to the south.
After today's system exits the area Sunday morning, an extended stretch of quiet weather is looking likely through the first several days of 2024, as ridging over the central CONUS eventually transitions to zonal flow aloft. A brief period of freezing drizzle will be possible at all of the TAF sites through mid to late afternoon. Brief period of freezing drizzle this afternoon, before a transition to light snow, which is most likely between 02z-09z.
1152 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 - A cold front brings breezy northwest winds and periods of scattered flurries or light snow this afternoon through tonight. Surface observations show the approaching backdoor cold front with a wind shift from WNW to NW near the Interstate 94 corridor in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) With upper level ridging building in from the west coincident with southwesterly surface flow, high temperatures are warming nicely this afternoon into the low 60s for most and 50s in the higher terrain. Some cirrus clouds are accompanying this ridge and will serve to hold low temperatures about 5 degrees warmer than this morning.
Overnight lows will be a little warmer tonight, in the 30s to lower 40s. A cold front will into the northern Big Country by the late afternoon.
High pressure building in from the GOMEX will help to decrease cloud cover through the day. Cool high temperatures around 8-10 degrees below normal this afternoon will plummet overnight, thanks to the low cloud cover.
348 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2023 Low pressure over the western Great Lakes will track southeast across the remainder of the southern Great Lakes through Sunday night. As this occurs, a cold front will push east through the region.
1128 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 (Today through Sunday) After a chilly start to this morning, where freezing temperatures are possible in some locations, abundant sunshine should lead to a warm day. While skies will remain mostly clear once again tonight, the return of southerly flow will lead to warm air advection resulting in a warmer night tonight.
1119 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 (Today through Sunday night) Currently a ridge is passing over the region yielding dry and fair weather for the morning and early afternoon. This ridge will be replaced by a trough later today which will drag a dry cold front across the panhandles. This cold front will serve to only shift the wind direction to the north and push somewhat colder air across the panhandles.
1036 AM MST Sat Dec 30 2023 - No forecast concerns over the next several days w/ upper-level ridging and/or split flow aloft limiting potential influence from any major weather systems. A very quiet 24-48 hours ahead as upper-level ridging remains in control across the Rockies. Upper-level ridging may become undercut by a weak short wave disturbance on Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday will be 10-15 degrees cooler as a result, but no impactful weather is expected.
1134 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 The upper low that brought some light precipitation and cold temps to the region yesterday has moved to the eastern seaboard.
Temperatures will be right around season averages on New Year's Eve with temperatures in the low 30s for western Nevada valleys (low/mid 20s Sierra Valleys) as the clock approaches midnight to ring in the new year. The initial system around Jan 3-4 features a closed low that will dig south along the CA coast and may lead to a glancing blow of precipitation.
133 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 - Flurries/freezing drizzle (10-30%) possible this evening Prairie Coteau.
The last in a series of individual vorticity maxima to travel through the trough is predicted to dig southeastward across the southern Appalachians and into the Carolinas by late this afternoon, and with increasing subsidence aloft in the wake of this feature, we expect no additional flurries or drizzle for the remainder of the day.
(This afternoon through Sunday) A blanket of low-level clouds lies over a large portion of Central Alabama in the wake of the departing deep-layer trough. Deep ridging over the Central CONUS will becoming increasingly low amplitude as it moves eastward and interacts with a trough advancing southeast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions. This will cause dry, zonal flow to develop over the Southeast tomorrow while surface ridging over the Gulf of Mexico produces a light south- southwesterly sfc wind and warm air advection.
This sets the stage for light freezing rain/wintry mix this evening into early Sunday as a weak upper level wave works south to north along the ID/MT border. The highest probabilities (60-75%) for freezing rain will be Highway 2 west of Marion and Highway 200 from Thompson Falls to Heron, thus winter weather advisories have been issued. Other areas to watch early Sunday include the lower valleys of North-Central Idaho and the Flathead Valley but probabilities are lower (20-40%) for light freezing rain. Donât be fooled by air temperatures near or above freezing as cold sub-surface ground temperatures will allow for water to refreeze on untreated roadways.
The next upper low is already diving into northern Minnesota, and its sfc reflection will cross Lake Michigan tonight. Look for Sun morning mins just either side of freezing.
Highs today are on track to reach the low to mid 50s and will moderate into the low 60s for Sunday.
146 PM MST Sat Dec 30 2023 - High clouds will be on the increase today keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
107 PM MST Sat Dec 30 2023 An amplified upper ridge stretched from New Mexico northward into southern Canada and was providing abundant sunshine across Montana this afternoon.
1146 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 (Today through Sunday) A northwest-to-southeast mid-level flow initially over the BRO CWFA will gradually transition to a more zonal flow during the period as a flattening 500 mb ridge of high pressure rapidly shifts from the Desert Southwest to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Dpt values currently in the lower 30s along the coast are expected to be around 50 by morning. As a result, min temperatures tonight will be 10 degrees or more warmer than last night. Expect lows mainly in the 40s, but in the lower 50s along the coast.
1222 PM MST Sat Dec 30 2023 Cooler temperatures and periodic rain chances return to the forecast for the week ahead as a series of weather systems move across the region. Temperatures will be below normal with highs mainly into the 60s across the lower deserts.
Eastern Wisconsin will see clouds begin to increase later this afternoon ahead of the approaching next quick moving low pressure system. Freezing fog is also a risk over this area given temperatures in the teens and 20s. Clouds will increase this afternoon and evening ahead of an upper level low, which will push into the region tonight. 5 inches of snow, with the higher totals along and north of I-94. However with surface temperatures around freezing and warm advection off the lake (water temps in the low 40s), additional moisture may be offset by less efficient accumulation.
1136 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) One last morning of widespread freezing temperatures before a large upper level trough sweeps up into the Northeast, and ridging sets in with warmer temperatures for Texas and New Mexico. Thicknesses will tick up this afternoon as the ridge axis positions over the area, and highs reach the 60s today with partly sunny skies and light winds. This front should arrive after peak heating and strong downsloping west winds will develop ahead of the trough, so temperatures will be able to warm sufficiently to the 60s and low 70s for most Sunday afternoon. This looks to be the last day of above-normal temperatures for at least a week with a significantly cooler pattern setting in post-front.
(This evening through Sunday) A cold front is expected to move across the area later tonight into Sunday morning. The colder air will also cause temperatures to drop back down to around or just below average Sunday with highs in the low 40s (N OK) to mid 50s (along the Red River). No measurable precipitation is expected with the cold front.
(This evening through Sunday night) Model agreement continues to see the propagation of a weak cold frontal boundary south into the Panhandles this evening. This cooler air will help in keeping temperatures down for the overnight and New Years Eve with tonight's lows still holding in 20s despite the 50s and 60s expected today. Heading into the overnight and the new year, this expected increase in moisture ahead of the trough may come back again in the form of overnight fog. Otherwise, temperatures will look to be cooler for the day with afternoon highs in the 40s to low 50s, while lows will be closer to the 20s to ring in the new year.
147 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 - Patchy freezing drizzle this evening north of highway 30 turning to light snow with accumulations up to half an inch. This should not be too impactful, especially tomorrow as temperatures rise to near or above freezing. The most impactful weather may be this evening with patchy freezing drizzle, especially across the northern CWA. Locally though, we look to be either to dry for any precip or in some area of ridging that will keep us quiet.
Much of the same story is expected tonight, with lows near freezing.
241 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 - A cold frontal passage late tonight into Sunday morning will bring a return of clouds and below normal temperatures.
1144 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 - Drier weather with warmer temperatures return today.
1116 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 (Today and tonight) Weak upper level ridging will begin to work its way east into the area today ahead of the next trough moving onto the California coast.
Water vapor imagery highlights a short wave ridge sliding east through northern Mexico. The southern extent of the long wave trough axis has responded by sliding east through the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures across the island chain are near or below 70 with dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s.
554 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Temperatures will climb into the 50s ahead of a cold front that will move across the Mid-South Sunday afternoon and evening.
551 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 (Tonight) A cold front currently slicing across Kansas will move to near the I-40 corridor across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by Sunrise on Sunday with northerly winds increasing behind the boundary. (Sunday through Saturday) Sunday will prove to be a bit colder across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with temperatures just a few degrees colder than today south of I-40 as the cold front exits the area to the south.
The upper low has moved into southern California this afternoon and will continue pushing eastward this evening and overnight. The more impactful change will be much cooler daytime temperatures Sunday.
At the surface, a reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive with the passage of a cold front, resulting in max temperatures roughly ten degrees cooler on Sunday compared to today.
536 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) With upper level ridging building in from the west coincident with southwesterly surface flow, high temperatures are warming nicely this afternoon into the low 60s for most and 50s in the higher terrain. Some cirrus clouds are accompanying this ridge and will serve to hold low temperatures about 5 degrees warmer than this morning.
A cooler air mass has moved in behind the front with 500mb temperatures near -25C. With the ridge level flow becoming more westerly the moisture flow into the region has diminished, and showers are expected to slowly diminish through the remainder of the evening as a weak upper ridge builds in from the west and surface cooling decreased the lower level lapse rates.
Cooler temperatures and periodic rain chances return to the forecast for the week ahead as a series of weather systems move across the region. Temperatures will be below normal with highs mainly into the 60s across the lower deserts.
835 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Expect temperatures on New Year's Eve to be slightly cooler for areas along and north of I-40 as a dry cold front crosses the Mid-South on Sunday. As a result, highs will range from the upper 40s to the low 60s. ANS Temperatures will climb into the 50s ahead of a cold front that will move across the Mid-South Sunday afternoon and evening.
507 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 - A cold frontal passage late tonight into Sunday morning will bring a return of clouds and below normal temperatures.
448 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 - Periods of light freezing drizzle/mixed wintry precipitation to light snow through tonight. Freezing drizzle accumulation of a couple hundredths, and new snow accumulation of less than half an inch. GOES 16 water vapor imagery shows the low pressure spinning over the western half of Lake Superior. Low stratus clouds have filled in behind the cold front this afternoon. Many places north of I-90 saw their high temperature for the day early this morning, and most did not warm above freezing after sunrise. As a result, think most of the precipitation will fall as freezing drizzle/mixed wintry precipitation. Totals will remain low, up to a couple hundredths of freezing drizzle, and a dusting to a half an inch of snow. High pressure begins to build in and winds decrease through the day.
One thing to watch late tonight is patchy freezing fog, particularly near Plentywood and Wolf Point. -Zanker MORNING DISCUSSION: High Pressure remains in control over the weekend keeping things dry. Only feature of note in the short term is a weak backdoor cold front moved into the area overnight and this will cause a temperature drop of 10 degrees from yesterday's highs in northeast zones and 5 degrees in southwest zones.
454 PM MST Sat Dec 30 2023 - Patchy freezing fog possible in portions of the Nebraska panhandle late tonight through tomorrow morning. Primary forecast concerns in the short term forecast are patchy freezing fog possible in the Nebraska panhandle and much cooler temperatures Sunday. Due to the upslope flow, colder temperatures, and increased moisture due to continued snow coverage and snow melt, areas of freezing fog are possible in mainly northern and eastern portions of the Nebraska panhandle. Temperatures Sunday are forecast to be much colder due to the backdoor cold front and increased cloud cover/upper level disturbance moving in from the south.
Sunday will be cooler, with high temperatures slightly warmer than average in the upper teens to low 20s under partly cloudy skies.