Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The high pressure building in should continue decreasing the low clouds. , 15-30 percent sky cover) and warmer conditions during the midday and afternoon hours Thursday with highs rebounding to late June climo with max temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
- Additional rounds of strong storms possible Friday evening/night north of Interstate 70 Discussion: Early this morning, the area resides under the influence of a upper level ridge over the southern Plains. Morning lows will only bottom out in the low 70s to near 80 providing little relief for the daytime heat. That should still allow temperatures to rebound into the low to mid 90s. This will again allow temperatures to warn into the low to mid 90s across northern Missouri to the upper 90s to near 105 further south. By Friday night the cold front will bisect the CWA as a southwesterly LLJ develops and overrides the boundary.
East of this stalled front dew points were running in the lower 70s while along and west of the stalled front dew points continued in the upper 70s. It is also in proximity to this stalled boundary that models prog a 352K thetae ridge that a few hi-res models try to develop convection along mid afternoon into early evening. Instead, temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s are expected to combine with the high humidity to result in heat index values of 110-115 at most locations across the CWA. /22/ An intense high pressure system over the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast region will continue the pattern of dangerous and excessive heat across the south on Friday.
A rapid warming trend will take place through Satruday as high pressure strengthens over the area.
Early this morning, scattered storms ahead of a weak surface boundary quickly weakened across western WI as they outran the higher CAPE/moisture, leaving mostly dry conditions region-wide. A mainly dry day is expected, although there is a low (20-30%) chance for a shower/storm late in the day or this evening ahead of an upper level trough approaching from the northern plains, especially for western/northern areas. Although the higher chances for organized strong/severe storms are south of the local area, some small hail/gusty winds could accompany any storms given lingering stronger westerly mid-level flow/deep layer shear and pockets of moderate instability. Although there are still some minor differences in the track of the system, general ensemble consensus keeps the higher moisture/instability south of the region and only some lower end (20-30%) rain chances into the weekend mainly across southwest WI/northeast IA.
Weak troughing aloft will gradually move toward the east today with isolated thunderstorms confined to eastern Lincoln County this afternoon. A ridge will then build over the region which will bring continued dry weather and rapidly warming temperatures.
Ridging will remain in place through Thursday and will allow temperatures to stay near the century mark for most areas of the CWA. Td's are also rather high ranging in the low to mid 70s across much of the CWA. Areas east of the Flint Hills are the most likely area to reach the higher heat indices Thursday. Friday, a cold front will begin to encroach on the region and will start to break the ridge down some.
213 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Warmer and drier conditions are expected through the next few days, though the slight chance for showers and thunderstorms remains possible. Upper-level ridging begins to builds over western CONUS, dissolving the daily showers and thunderstorms. The upper-level ridging will amplify quite significantly over the course of the weekend, and with it, warmer and drier conditions, but weak disturbances combined with diurnal heating will maintain at least a slight chance for predominately afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, especially over higher terrain.
140 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 (Rest of tonight) Dry weather will continue overnight as an upper level ridge continues to track east.
Over the next couple of days, the center of the aforementioned 500mb upper ridge will settle over North Louisiana and adjacent Southern Arkansas.
Pressure gradient across the area expected to be maintained overnight with low pressure centered over Kansas, so surface wind will not settle, keeping overnight temps well above seasonal averages most places.
1236 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) The gradual relief from the oppressive heat we've been seeing continues as the center of the upper ridge shifts from east Texas into the Mississippi Valley. The only storm chances in the short term are Thursday afternoon across the higher terrain of the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent high plains of southeastern New Mexico.
As we head into the evening and overnight hours, warm moist advection will kick off as a compact wave ejects out of the Great Basin trough, increasing chances of seeing showers and storms. As the western trough axis shifts east over the Rockies tomorrow, storms over the High Plains are expected to develop and work east across kansas by the later afternoon and early evening hours. Temperature wise, central KS should be cooler in the upper 80s to low 90s while potions of south central and southeast remain at or near the century mark one last day.
953 PM PDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Drier weather and hotter temperatures will arrive Thursday as high pressure builds over the Western United States. Temperatures this evening are running 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this time last night, thanks to much lesser shower coverage today along with upper level ridging beginning to nudge into the Inland Northwest. The ridge will continue to move inland tomorrow and Friday which will bring high temperatures and low relative humidities. Thursday will have another, albeit smaller, chance for thunderstorms in the higher terrain as they are still outside of the ridgeâs strongest influences.
210 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023 High pressure continues to build in through the weekend, with increasingly hot conditions. There will be potential for some patchy fog early tomorrow morning as the low levels become saturated, and guidance continues to highlight the southern NC coast as having the best chances for fog.
The trough will be shifting eastward today, reaching the western portions of the state. With the trough moving closer, this will shift the focus for severe weather away from western and central Wyoming, as wind shear will be decreased and daytime heating will be slightly less due to increased cloud cover. As the trough moves east tonight, some continued wraparound shower activity will continue for central WY through sunrise Friday. With the trough finally moving into eastern WY during the day Friday, shower chances will be on a downward trend. It is still likely that thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon, mainly starting on the higher elevations of the Winds and Bighorns before moving east.
Height rises will ensue this morning as an upper level ridge builds into the Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Starting tonight through Friday night, the upper Ohio River Valley will be positioned approximately at the eastern edge of convergence between a Quebec trough and southern MS River Valley ridge.
MSAS analysis showed weak low pressure over western Lake Superior, with a cold front extending south through NW and WC WI. mainly dry conditions should prevail this morning and early afternoon, but CAMs and SPC SREF >40 dBZ Paintballs show scattered convective development occurring in the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas as the cold front arrives in the mid to late afternoon. Warmer temperatures will be noted along the lakeshore on Friday, as west winds hold back the marine layer.
Rain chances increase along with slightly cooler temperatures this weekend. With dew point temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, heat indices will reach up to 105-110 degrees, with areas in the severe drought likely experiencing the higher end of that range.
The thunderstorm threat has diminished considerably today, thanks to the upper level low continuing its eastward creep. The upper level ridge dominates for Fri and Sat, allowing temperatures to spike up, with thunderstorm risk continued low and limited to the northeast corner on Sat afternoon and evening, from Rexburg northward and eastward. As per usual with dominating high pressure aloft, very little wind expected with little upper level support.
A trough of low pressure will approach the region Friday, bringing unsettled weather which will last through the weekend.
(Today through Friday Night ) A pesky upper lvl ridge remains cemented in place over the ARK-LA- TEX region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a warm front has pushed well east of the CWA, leaving in its wake an airmass that has slightly more moisture leading to the increase of dewpoint temperatures across the region. The CW flow around the area of high pressure will continue to usher in moisture via southerly flow into the Natural State to maintain this airmass.
High pressure will maintain quiet weather throughout the day on Thursday. A robust ridge over the GOMEX expands and slowly moves eastward this period, which kicks off a warming trend (if anything, more of a "hotting" trend, if you will). Friday, as the ridge expands, 500mb heights will try to hit 590dam, allowing for a strong dome of heat to take shape. Lows in the low 70s.
Daytime temperatures will be near average for Thursday and Friday before high pressure builds over the Southwest, increasing temperatures to 5-10 degrees above average for this time of year.
/NEW/ /Through Friday/ The 500mb ridge mostly responsible for the recent hot streak currently sits over East Texas, and will shift slowly east across Louisiana through the end of the work week. South winds may become breezy at times, which could elevate wildfire danger across the far western counties where afternoon dewpoints will fall into the lower 50s.
(Through Thursday) Deep layer ridge will continue to build eastward on Thursday, becoming centered over the Arklatex by the afternoon. This will place the forecast area under deep, dry northerly flow on the eastern side of the ridge. (Thursday night through Friday night) A large upper level ridge over the deep south will continue to remain in control of the weather as it translates east and moves over the southeast US. While the strength of the ridge slowly weakens as it moves east later this week, the absence of any significant deep-layer moisture, and large scale subsidence, will keep rain chances low into Friday night.
128 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023 (Rest of today through Thursday) Rinse and repeat conditions today as a deep-layered area of high pressure continues to build over the Gulf of Mexico, slowly encroaching into the Florida peninsula. Convective initiation will most likely occur along the sea breeze convergence front once the breeze comes in, then shifting inland and towards the Lake Okeechobee area, where there will be the highest chances for storms to develop. Another couple of days of hot heat await South Florida through the short term, with high temperatures reaching the low-mid 90s and heat indices in the lower 100s. Warm temperatures are also likely overnight, with the lows in the upper 70s along coastal areas and low 70s over the interior.
A strong 500 mb high over the lower Mississippi Valley region will expand northward over the next 48 hours. The mid-level flow will remain quite strong for such a hot ridge, with 500 mb winds of 30 to 50 knots. Most of the cams and lower res guidance indicate any such complex would struggle as it moves into strong convective inhibition / mid-level thermal ridging over our area. A convective system could round the top of the ridge, affecting primarily areas north and east of Paducah.
/Issued 1247 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023/ /Through Friday/ The 500mb ridge mostly responsible for the recent hot streak currently sits over East Texas, and will shift slowly east across Louisiana through the end of the work week. South winds may become breezy at times, which could elevate wildfire danger across the far western counties where afternoon dewpoints will fall into the lower 50s.
1044 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 The latest water vapor images and 500-mb height analysis show an upper low over southwestern MT/northeastern ID with a trough in the West and flat ridge across the central CONUS.
Meanwhile, a 'warm front' was aligned fm NW-SE acrs the northeast part of the FA. This feature delineates dewpoints in the lower 70s to the NE, and mid and upper 70s to the SW. High pressure aloft was centered acrs SErn TX this aftn. The ridge is fcst to sloly migrate to the east thru Fri into the Mid-South.
423 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Dry conditions with lower daytime humidity will occur again today with temperatures trending several degrees warmer than yesterday. Fcst max temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s trend +5-10 degrees F warmer vs. Models continue to signal dry weather overnight with min temps trending a bit warmer on the margin.
A warm front will usher in more humid air across the region. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across eastern sections of the region on Thursday as the warm front finally moves east of the Mid-South. A warm front will continue to move east across the region tonight. Behind the warm front, hot and very humid air will remain over the Mid-South for the next few days. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across eastern sections of the region on Thursday as the warm front finally moves east of the Mid-South.
616 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 (Today through Friday) The center of the Subtropical Ridge lingers over Louisiana today and Friday while the western edge over Texas erodes somewhat especially on Friday as an upper level trough moves over the Central Rockies into the High Plains. There remains strong subsidence underneath our portion of Ridge along with a drier than normal airmass to keep POPs out of the forecast.
Thunderstorm coverage could be quite a bit higher today w/ much stronger forcing associated w/ a sharp upper-level trough poised to eject northeast across the 4- Corners region by late morning and early afternoon. Early-day surface heating coupled w/ ample low-level moisture characterized by surface dew points in the low & middle 50s should help support MLCAPEs of 1500+ J/kg in the presence of fairly steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 deg C/km. This is where backed near-surface flow (courtesy of the Chugwater Cyclone) will contribute to enhanced convergence, as well as locally maximized effective bulk shear w/ effective SRH near 150 m2/s2.
932 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023 High pressure over the region today will offer the nicest weather of this forecast package.
30 Previous Discussion: /Through Friday/ The 500mb ridge mostly responsible for the recent hot streak currently sits over East Texas, and will shift slowly east across Louisiana through the end of the work week. South winds may become breezy at times, which could elevate wildfire danger across the far western counties where afternoon dewpoints will fall into the lower 50s.
North of the boundary towards the Nebraska border will be a bit cooler, only seeing highs in the lower 90s. Given the similar synoptic setup, will again have to watch the High Plains for developing thunderstorms late afternoon and evening. By Friday night, the upper trough to our west will push east, finally shoving the boundary fully through our area.
Upstream over the western CONUS, split flow was beginning to develop, with the northern stream building into an upper ridge in the western Canadian Prairies. The cold front is not expected to have much influence on today's weather, besides a slight increase in cloud cover this morning and high temperatures today a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday, in the upper 70s to lower 80s. As the upper trough to our north moves southeast towards Minnesota, additional precipitation is possible in northeast North Dakota, although this is currently expected to not impact our forecast area. Behind the front, winds will shift northwesterly, and will be a bit breezy in the James River Valley closer to the low.
The passage of the trough will "cool" things down a bit with highs 3 degrees above normal today and 0-2 degrees above normal Friday.
Only small changes were made to today's forecast, mainly timing of the PoPs, more clouds this morning, and slightly cooler temperatures. Upper level trough to slowly move across Colorado Friday. Airmass will be cooler with highs in the lower to mid 70s. With the trough overhead, shear will be weaker as well leading to a low/very low severe threat.
324 AM PDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Drier weather and hotter temperatures will arrive Thursday as high pressure builds over the Western United States.
258 AM PDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Drier weather and hotter temperatures will arrive Thursday as high pressure builds over the Western United States.
So overall idea of sct storms moving in or developing on southwest side of upper low looks good today. Upper low well defined over the Manitoba Interlake region with a cluster of t-storms with it northwest of Winnipeg. But otherwise as upper low moves to near Kenora by late today, do expect a scattering of thunderstorms to occur over northwestern MN and far northeastern ND. Friday is looking dry and highs in the low 80s.
A weak upper ridge will build over the region today and Friday. Even despite the summer-like warm ridge over the region Friday, we have introduced a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the mountains from north-central Idaho east into southwest Montana.
523 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Dry conditions with lower daytime humidity will occur again today with temperatures trending several degrees warmer than yesterday. Fcst max temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s trend +5-10 degrees F warmer vs. Models continue to signal dry weather overnight with min temps trending a bit warmer on the margin.
631 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Dry conditions with lower daytime humidity will occur again today with temperatures trending several degrees warmer than yesterday. Fcst max temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s trend +5-10 degrees F warmer vs. Models continue to signal dry weather overnight with min temps trending a bit warmer on the margin.
With the ridge slightly more east today than yesterday, temperatures will still be hot, but it is looking like not as hot as yesterday or the day before. Used a blend of the NBM and Persistence, due to the NBM being a bit on the high side yesterday.
A weak surface cold front is analyzed west-east from McKenzie County through Sheridan and Wells Counties this morning, slowly moving south through the forecast area. Upstream over the western CONUS, split flow was beginning to develop, with the northern stream building into an upper ridge in the western Canadian Prairies. The cold front is not expected to have much influence on today's weather, besides a slight increase in cloud cover this morning and high temperatures today a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday, in the upper 70s to lower 80s. As the upper trough to our north moves southeast towards Minnesota, additional precipitation is possible in northeast North Dakota, although this is currently expected to not impact our forecast area. Behind the front, winds will shift northwesterly, and will be a bit breezy in the James River Valley closer to the low.
The mid level ridge that has dominated the South and Southeast over the past few days has shifted slightly northeast overnight, and is now centered over Louisiana. The Big Pine RAWS recorded a temperature of 75 degrees and the backyard at the office on White Street dropped to 79 degrees, while other unprotected island communities remain in the lower 80s. The Florida Keys will remain on the southeastern periphery of the mid-level ridge during the day, which will keep the steering flow from the north.
829 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Warmer and drier conditions are expected through the next few days, though the slight chance for showers and thunderstorms remains possible. Afternoon temperatures will generally be a bit warmer today, as warm air advection continues to move in from the southwest. /ISSUED 515 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023/ Upper-level ridging begins to builds over western CONUS, dissolving the daily showers and thunderstorms. The upper-level ridging will amplify quite significantly over the course of the weekend, and with it, warmer and drier conditions, but weak disturbances combined with diurnal heating will maintain at least a slight chance for predominately afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, especially over higher terrain.
627 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 (Today through Friday night) Today looks cooler than the previous two days as 850mb temps will be 3-7 degrees Celsius cooler and the sunshine will likely have to filter through some mid to upper-level clouds. Although there will be some southerly winds trying to advect some better low- level moisture content, the low-levels will remain very dry leading to a weakly unstable environment. Dew points should at least be in the 50s with some models suggesting the low-60s.
The trough that has been positioned to our west over the Great Basin the last few days is expected to push eastward today and tomorrow. With the movement of this low, lighter winds will be in store for much of northern Arizona. A ridge looks to quickly build across Nevada, California, and Arizona, bringing temperatures to the hottest they have been all year. The lower elevation areas, such as the Verde Valley, the lower elevations of Yavapai County, Page/Lake Powell, and the Grand Canyon, are likely to see temperatures between 100-110 degrees.
609 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level high shifts east a little farther east today and continues the slow downward trend in afternoon temperatures. May continue to flirt with Heat Advisory criteria, but given that its marginal and almost 10 degrees cooler than what we were looking at last week, will not issue any additional heat products for today.
909 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023 High pressure over the region will offer the nicest weather of this forecast package.
Weather wise, the main impact will be seen in visibilities and potentially high temperature falling a degree or two cooler than would be expected. Starting tonight through Friday night, the upper Ohio River Valley will be positioned approximately at the eastern edge of convergence between a Quebec trough and southern MS River Valley ridge.
Warmer and drier conditions are expected through the next few days, though the slight chance for showers and thunderstorms remains possible. Upper-level ridging begins to builds over western CONUS, dissolving the daily showers and thunderstorms. The upper-level ridging will amplify quite significantly over the course of the weekend, and with it, warmer and drier conditions, but weak disturbances combined with diurnal heating will maintain at least a slight chance for predominately afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, especially over higher terrain.
All hazards will be possible, with tornado threat tied to storm proximity to warm front across southeast IA, northeast MO, and west central IL. Discussion: At 2 AM, a warm front was draped across northern Missouri then it turns southeastward across far eastern Missouri and into the lower Mississippi Valley. Low confidence placement of QPF continues into the weekend, in an otherwise active pattern, where the zonal flow transitions to a temporarily cut off mid level low pressure.
628 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 (Today through Friday) The broad 500mb ridge parked over Louisiana will continue to provide subsidence with hot and humid conditions today and Friday. Warm and humid tonight with overnight lows in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
(Today through Friday) The broad 500mb ridge parked over Louisiana will continue to provide subsidence with hot and humid conditions today and Friday. Warm and humid tonight with overnight lows in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.