Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1030 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide mostly dry weather and warmer temperatures through the end of the week. A mid-level ridge will extend from the Ohio Valley to the Upper Great Lakes tonight. The ridge moves east and flattens across the eastern Great Lakes region Friday. To the north, an approaching cold front moving south from Quebec will increase the chance for a few showers and storms mainly north of Lake Ontario and across the Saint Lawrence Valley. Warm Friday with highs reaching the upper 70s at the higher terrain to the low to mid 80s at lower elevations. Lows will reach the low to mid 50s.
(Tomorrow through Thursday) The upper level low currently located over southeast CO this afternoon will lift slowly northeast into the Central Plains Friday afternoon, with weakening wind fields trending less favorable for organized severe weather.
703 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023 Severe storms are expected to continue tonight as the upper low moves northeastward.
945 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure remains over the region, bringing warm, spring- like temperatures and dry weather through the weekend. No big changes with high pressure keeping us mostly sunny and dry. Beautiful weather will continue through the period, with temperatures warming into the low- to mid-80s tomorrow.
Otherwise, high pressure will build over the region allowing for increasing temperatures, breezy afternoon winds from the north and northeast and mostly clear skies through the remainder of the week.
This ridge is supporting moderate easterly breezes across the Keys. Meanwhile, lower to mid level ridging prevails across the area. A ridge extending across the southeast will maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes through the overnight period.
1257 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure will result in dry weather today. Low pressure moves through tonight into Saturday spreading showers across mainly southern parts of the region.
At the heart of it all is a very deep upper trough that is expected to develop over the intermountain west, with blocking ridges to the west and east. This trough moves very little allowing several smaller lows to rotate around each other within the flow of the trough. Increasing cloud cover and cooler surface temperatures inhibit the severe threat after today with heavy rainfall and flooding becoming a bigger threat tomorrow and beyond.
This front will only have minimal impacts on temperatures, with the northwest portions of the CWA remaining slightly cooler in the 70s tonight and tomorrow. The aforementioned cold front will gradually stall somewhere south of I-40 as influence of the upper-level low will depart into the central and high plains Friday. Going into the evening and overnight hours, a new upper low will develop over the Big Bend region and deepen as it lifts north towards the Panhandles this weekend. Right now current thinking is for most development (especially any potentially severe convection) to occur south of our area and to hold off until late Friday night into Saturday when better dynamics from the low will be closer to our area.
348 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 Discussion/Marine -- Chance of Showers Mainly In Southern Michigan Today -- Increasing mid-level clouds associated with the trough/vorticity that originated over Texas a few days ago will result in a cloudier day, though still warm and fairly dry, more so in central Michigan and north of I-96. In the low probability case of robust convection, there has been the signal in various models of bullseyes of 1+ inch of rain. -- Mostly Dry Weekend Though Some Chance For Rain -- Though weak upper-level ridging and dry northeasterly low-level flow will be present on Saturday, remnant mid-level moisture may threaten to produce a few light rain showers on Saturday.
128 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
Saturday, the upper level ridge becomes centered over the area, with weak impulses rotating to our north and east.
A cold front will drop across the region tonight into early Saturday morning, which will keep temperatures much closer to seasonable normals than the last day or so. Any lingering showers will come to an end Friday night into early Saturday as cooler, drier air moves in. Dry and sunny weather continues for Saturday as high pressure continues to work its way in. Model soundings are still suggesting deep mixing behind the passing cold front, which would bring dry air aloft to the surface. Highs will seasonably warm on Saturday, with mid 60s to low 70s across valley locations and slightly cooler across the higher terrain.
A warm front associated with that low will move into eastern Nebraska into an environment very favorable for severe weather. This risk is associated with the slow moving upper low that will still be in the area. A severe weather threat for the forecast area will be dependent on the position of the warm front and the upper level low.
(Today through Saturday) High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to support prevailing easterly flow over SFL today, while at the mid-levels ridging will largely prevail over the eastern US although various low-amplitude upper disturbances (likely influenced by convection) will be present over the GOM/western Atlantic. In general expect mostly dry conditions given the presence of the ridge, although isolated-scattered activity will be possible over the west coast near the pinned Gulf Breeze. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s over the east coast to the low 90s over the Interior.
408 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure will result in dry weather today. Low pressure moves through tonight into Saturday spreading showers across mainly southern parts of the region.
446 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Ohio Valley to the Carolina Coast will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather today. A warm frontal boundary will drift north toward the Commonwealth tonight and Saturday, bringing a few showers to southwestern and south central portions of the state later this evening into Saturday.
232 AM MDT Fri May 12 2023 Upper low will slowly lift north today, ending up in central Nebraska by this afternoon. While the risk of severe storms is much lower compared to yesterday, a little hesitant to completely rule them out given proximity to the upper low. For Saturday, upper low will be weakening to the north and no longer impact the area. However, another weak upper low will be meandering into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.
In either case, deep layer shear is progged to be weaker (25 kts or so) to the southeast of the upper low which lifts into central Nebraska.
A broad inverted trough extends across the western High Plains, from western Kansas to western North Dakota. Water vapor imagery showed the main upper low also over western KS. Models lift the 700/500mb low northeast into central NE by 00z tonight, with ridging extending across northeast ND into northwest MN. Highs therefore, will be warmer in the north as well.
An upper level ridge will quickly strengthen and amplify over the Pacific Northwest through Saturday and move northward into BC.
A couple areas of strong to severe convection were occurring out ahead of this low in an area over upper divergence and low level jet energy. The upper low will lift northeast into Nebraska today and a warm front will also push through the area. The main severe weather focus will be to our north and west where the better instability/shear combination will exist, closer to the warm front and low pressure system.
Highs today are forecast to top out in the lower to mid 70s across the CWA.
Meanwhile, high pressure remains in control over the the next few days. Afternoon highs climb into the low to mid 90s during this time.
343 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 Under broad surface ridging, current radar features include pop up showers in Luce County and lake breezes from Lakes Superior and Michigan, with a scattered to broken cu field visible on GOES-16 satellite imagery. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the northern plains and a ridge in the sern U. This trough and a low embedded into it gets absorbed into a trough that is in the northeastern U.
In general, stratiform rain will develop over the southern Rolling Plains and track northwestward along the north side of the low.
157 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 A warm front will lift north into the southern Great Lakes today Friday before becoming stationary.
Partly cloudy skies and easterly winds are expected this afternoon with high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s area wide. In the coming days and week ahead, the upper level ridging and high pressure remain in place over the region. Afternoon high temperatures will remain slightly above average, ranging from the upper 80s along the coast to the lower to middle 90s elsewhere. High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern through the rest of this week and into the weekend.
113 AM PDT Fri May 12 2023 Plan on warmer temperatures, light winds, and dry conditions through Saturday.
Going forward, as the low to the south continues to slow shift into the the Central Plains tonight and Friday, the area will continue to see an influx of moist air from the southeast. There could be an additional surge of better precipitation as some low-level jet energy starts to develop as some ridging starts to develop to the north and the low over the plains starts to retrograde back to the west. The the low-level jet streak, Saturday could be a bit of a breezy along with the rain chances. With the lower amounts expected across much of the area, have only kept Sheridan County in the Aerial Flood Watch.
Lower to mid level ridging continues to prevail early this morning across the area. This will continue to promote breezy conditions with a period of windy conditions expected tonight when the gradient due to the high is at its strongest.
859 PM PDT Thu May 11 2023 Strengthening high pressure aloft along the West Coast will bring a warming trend through the upcoming weekend.
(Today) Upper low over central Plains lifts north away from the region today, and the mid-level flow will gradually decrease with time as a result.
315 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 Surface warm front marked by dewpoints in the 60s creeps northward late this morning resulting in a weak instability gradient near the Michigan/Ohio border. Dynamically unremarkable upper level pattern suggests limited potential for deep-layer ascent locally as a closed low over the west-central Plains churns upstream of resilient ridging extending through the Great Lakes.
422 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 A cold front will approach the region today.
High pressure ridge aloft will remain centered over the SE CONUS, while a weak mid-upper level low starts to develop along its SW flank over the eastern GOMEX by tonight. At the surface, the W-E axis of an elongated western Atlantic ridge will remain well north of Florida, maintaining moderate onshore flow through tonight as it veers ever-so-slightly to E-ESE.
Synoptically, upper- and mid-level ridging will be in place across the southeastern CONUS through the short term forecast.
1209 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023 (This evening through Friday) Upper level low centered over SE Colorado at 18z will continue to drift northward through tonight with dry WSW flow aloft remaining in place over West Texas through midday on Friday. Otherwise dry conditions are expected Friday over the South Plains and the southern TX Panhandle, with one more day of hot temperatures before more widespread rain chances and a period of cooler conditions arrive beginning on Friday night.
102 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure remains over the region, bringing warm, spring- like temperatures and dry weather through the weekend. No big changes with high pressure keeping us mostly sunny and dry. Beautiful weather will continue through the period, with temperatures warming into the low- to mid-80s tomorrow. Otherwise, high pressure and dry conditions are in store for the rest of the weekend. After this weak system passes by, flow becomes northerly, which will advect cooler air into the region.
Highs will range from the lower 70s to low/mid 80s. We will be on the northeastern side of a ridge that is growing in strength centered over the southern MS river basin. A few weak disturbances are expected to track around this ridge from the plains and keep our weather unsettled through the weekend. With some suppression due to the ridging to our southwest, convective activity will be limited in strength, so not expecting an increased severe weather threat.
1141 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023 Severe storms are expected to continue tonight as the upper low moves northeastward.
TRI will likely have the highest temp tomorrow as cloud cover and rain will inhibit as much daytime heating at CHA and TYS before reaching northeast TN.
The powerful upper level trough that brought severe thunderstorms to northwest KS/northeast CO/southwest NE and central OK has moved little over the past several hours, likely owing to the closed nature of the cyclone limiting vorticity advection, with latest water vapor satellite imagery indicating it is centered over east-central CO at 0530Z.
The mid/upper level ridge is forecast to continue building across the mid-Mississippi Valley on Saturday. More cloud cover will help keep readings in the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon, but less in the way of clouds on Saturday combined with veering surface winds more out of the southwest should lead to highs 5-10 degrees warmer.
As the upper trough lifts towards western and central Nebraska tonight, a broken line of storms will progress eastwards across Kansas this evening and look to be approaching eastern Kansas and far western Missouri after midnight. The cold front is noted across across southeast Colorado and extending back to the west across northern New Mexico. Models has shifted the track of the low a bit further to the east which will increase severe chances across portions of northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri Friday afternoon and evening. Storms look to fire near the triple point then initiate southwards along the cold front. Temperatures will be much warmer today with the warm front pushing north across Missouri. This afternoon, deeper mixing may erode the lower cloud bases but it still looks like the area will be seeing cloud bases in the MVFR range.
On Saturday, the amplified Western-US ridge strengthens and expands over the PacNW and southwestern Canada. As this happens, a closed low over the Northern Plains begins to retrograde into the Intermountain West and Great Basin region, resulting in a Rex Block pattern. Ensemble guidance depiction of the low-portion of the Rex Block is pretty interesting, with several vort maxes spinning around the southwestern US and northwest Mexico.
156 AM MDT Fri May 12 2023 07z surface analysis had low over western KS and inverted trough into western SD. Water vapour loop had upper low over east- central CO spinning chunks of energy into the central/northern Plains. Effect of this upper low main concern into the weekend.
Cloud cover will serve to keep temperatures cooler, with the coolest temperatures at the lakeshore. Onshore flow will keep temperatures cooler near the lake.
(Friday through Saturday night) With high pressure to the northeast, easterly flow prevails causing the Atlantic sea breeze to be dominant. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s inland, with the Atlantic sea breeze keeping east coast temps in the lower 80s.
339 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023 Water vapor movie loops show an impressive upper low centered in nw KS and moving slowly to the northeast. Meanwhile, a warm front extended from northern OK to southern MO, with a cold front across the western high plains. Today and tonight: Forecast soundings indicate warm/moist air advection across the dvn cwa ahead of the upper low that tracks slowly to northern Nebraska later in the day. There will be more clouds compared to yesterday so temps should be cooler, in the 70s to around 80. The bulk of the severe storms look to be well to our west closer to the upper low so if any severe storms forms in our cwa it should be isolated.
By Saturday, high pressure builds over the southeast US, however, moisture undercutting this high will likely still lead to isolated to scattered storms this weekend. Decent instability with CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg will be present Saturday afternoon, however, with the presence of the high, upper-level flow and shear is very weak.
144 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure will result in dry weather today. Low pressure moves through tonight into Saturday spreading showers across mainly southern parts of the region.
427 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 A warm front will move north bringing increasing chances for showers and even a few thunderstorms today into early tonight.
This activity will move NNE into the forecast area tonight as a warm front continues to lift northward through the region. High temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 80s with dew points in the middle to upper 60s. For the end of the weekend, upper ridging is expected over the Deep South, allowing for Gulf moisture to stream northward through Texas, eventually steered towards the Midwest. The low pressure system that had been stalled out near Iowa will begin to shift southeastward as the upper ridge begins to weaken.
Upper low will slowly lift north today, ending up in central Nebraska by this afternoon. While the risk of severe storms is much lower compared to yesterday, a little hesitant to completely rule them out given proximity to the upper low. For Saturday, upper low will be weakening to the north and no longer impact the area. However, another weak upper low will be meandering into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.
111 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure centered far off the NC coast will linger offshore through the end of the week. A cold front and low pressure could lead to more unsettled weather through the first half of the upcoming week. High pressure has become situated far off the NC coast, and the overall pattern will not change much through Friday. Onshore flow will keep high temperatures cooler along the coastal areas while highs along/west of I-95 are expected to reach the mid 80s. Mid level ridge holding on paired with diurnal instability minimum keeps the area rain-free Friday night. Cold front surges into the Carolinas more quickly now, possibly moving through late Saturday night.
343 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 Discussion/Marine -- Chance of Showers Mainly In Southern Michigan Today -- Increasing mid-level clouds associated with the trough/vorticity that originated over Texas a few days ago will result in a cloudier day, though still warm and fairly dry, more so in central Michigan and north of I-96. In the low probability case of robust convection, there has been the signal in various models of bullseyes of 1+ inch of rain. -- Mostly Dry Weekend Though Some Chance For Rain -- Though weak upper-level ridging and dry northeasterly low-level flow will be present on Saturday, remnant mid-level moisture may threaten to produce a few light rain showers on Saturday.
As the morning progresses, and the low-level flow veers, warm, moist advection may lead to an expansion north/ new development of convection from the center portions of the forecast area eastward. Given the low-level moisture profile and the steep lapse rates aloft, the CAPE profile suggest very large hail will be possible with these storms as they move into far northwestern MO.
431 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 As a warm front lifts north and moisture increases across the region expect to see an increasing potential for shower and thunderstorm development today into tonight.
This is in association with a closed low, currently sitting over eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Friday, the low continues to lift to the northeast during the day, with the center coming over the Hastings CWA. Saturday, the low lifts northeast, out of the region.
(Today through Saturday Night ) An upper low over the High Plains will move northeast today into the northern Plains. An upper ridge will expand over the southeast U. Saturday and Saturday night the ridge will expand into the Midwest and an upper low will expand over the western U. This warm front will lift north today. A cold front will move into the state Saturday and bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms.
(Today and tonight) Upper closed low will continue to lift to the north through the central and northern Plains during the day today. As this occurs a surface cold front will slide south into the area, reaching north central into west-central Oklahoma by afternoon, with a dryline stretching south from the front across southwest Oklahoma into southwest Texas.
1244 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 A large and complex low pressure system in the Plains begins to displace weak high pressure from Lower Mi late tonight and Friday. Surface wind develops a steadier SE component earlier in the afternoon compared to recent days with less reliance on lake breeze and as a warm front organizes from the central Plains through IL/IN/OH. Another dry and clear evening is in store following seasonably warm daytime highs in the low 80s. Of particular importance to local weather over the next 24-36 hours is the nearly vertically stacked circulation over southwest Colorado and clouds/precipitation along its eastward extending warm frontal slope. Once the rain clears out Saturday morning, dry conditions prevail as remnants of upper ridging hold over southeast Michigan.
616 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023 (Today) Upper low over central Plains lifts north away from the region today, and the mid-level flow will gradually decrease with time as a result.
553 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper closed low will continue to lift to the north through the central and northern Plains during the day today. As this occurs a surface cold front will slide south into the area, reaching north central into west-central Oklahoma by afternoon, with a dryline stretching south from the front across southwest Oklahoma into southwest Texas.
949 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure will result in dry weather for most of the region today, though shower and thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon across Ohio and West Virginia as low pressure approaches. The low will move through tonight into Saturday spreading showers across mainly southern parts of the region.
541 AM MDT Fri May 12 2023 GOES-18 satellite imagery displays an upper level low feeding additional moisture into our region. The center of this low sits along the Colorado/Kansas border and is expected to shift northeast gradually this morning. If you're traveling to the higher elevations, prepare for low visibility and slick roads.
625 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 A warm front will move north bringing increasing chances for showers and even a few thunderstorms today into early tonight.
647 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023 (Today through Saturday Night ) An upper low over the High Plains will move northeast today into the northern Plains. An upper ridge will expand over the southeast U. Saturday and Saturday night the ridge will expand into the Midwest and an upper low will expand over the western U. This warm front will lift north today. A cold front will move into the state Saturday and bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Additional convection across West/Central Tennessee and North Mississippi are being deflected around the weak mid-level ridging over Central Mississippi currently and this will persist through late morning. Saturday, the upper level ridge becomes centered over the area, with weak impulses rotating to our north and east.
528 AM MDT Fri May 12 2023 07z surface analysis had low over western KS and inverted trough into western SD. Water vapour loop had upper low over east- central CO spinning chunks of energy into the central/northern Plains. Effect of this upper low main concern into the weekend.
410 AM PDT Fri May 12 2023 Strengthening high pressure aloft along the West Coast will continue the warming trend through Saturday with Saturday high temperatures as much as 5 to 10 degrees above average.