Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Through Tuesday) Cold high pressure will continue to build into the area through the morning. As the high pressure slides across we will mix out nicely this afternoon with winds of 8 to 12 mph from the north and extremely dry airmass. As we move into the evening, the high pressure will slide to the east. Before it exits though, temperatures will once again drop to or just below freezing.
433 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Delmarva Coast to the Lower Mississippi Valley will provide dry and moderately breezy weather with a gradual warming trend for the first half of this week.
Modest westerly flow aloft will develop across Kansas well downstream of a closed upper low which will approach the California coast on Tuesday. A deepening lee side surface trof will result in stronger southerly low level flow and warming thru the early week.
Early this morning, water vapor shows a storm system off the Pacific Northwest coastline with a trough extending southeastward across the Rockies where a plume of moisture is observed. That said, minimum relative humidity is still expected to drop to between 20 and 30 percent as temperatures warm into the low 60s this afternoon.
Given the nature of FGEN banding, expect a variation in snowfall amounts there with 1 to 3 inches possible, potentially more where persistent banding develops, although the higher amounts will be very localized. Main upper low will cross the FA Tues, with cold cloudy conds expected to the north of the sfc front, which is expected to extend from NE WY into SW SD. Upper trough will support band of snow showers across the northern 2/3 of the FA, with some light accums possible.
The 12 UTC models continue the trend of keeping us on the cooler side of these passing storm systems, and even far enough north of the main storm track that northern Kansas might miss out on several of the rounds of rain.
This will lead to another night of near freezing temperatures for portions of the forecast area.
Winds will be out of the north tomorrow with cooler temperatures than what was observed today. Surface ridging is across the region this afternoon providing some weak warm advection as southwesterly winds stream across Northland. Far northern MN will likely stay below freezing with NW WI flirting with temps around or slightly above freezing.
Cold-air advection (CAA) under clearing skies is still on track to bring freezing temperatures over the next several hours to the warned counties excluding the Big Bend, lower I-75 corridor, and coastal locations (sans South Walton). As the strong high pressure pivots eastward from the lower MS Valley this evening, low-level winds veer out of the northeast while slackening to around 5 mph or less under mostly cloud-free skies. However, tonight's lows are slated to remain just above freezing outside of isolated normally cold spots or where winds go calm.
Gusty, northerly breeze will make it feel that much cooler outside. High pressure regains control decreasing rain chances and allowing a drier airmass to move in.
1204 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023 (This evening through Monday) Shallow ridging from 700-500 mb is set to depart the region tonight ahead of a gradual influx of high clouds.
A weak cold front will sag into central and stall over portions of southern WI overnight. There is a small chance for some freezing drizzle early Tue morning, and a few wet snowflakes through this period as well. Forcing will be weak and moisture will be fairly shallow with a temperature profile warmer than the dendritic growth zone. Surface temps will determine drizzle vs freezing drizzle, but temperatures will be warming through midday Tue.
A cold front has sagged south overnight and is now located from New Ulm to just north of Eau Claire. This could bump temps up a couple more degrees, but a cooler airmass in place will keep us from reaching yesterday's levels in most cases. The low will track from eastern SD to near Alexandria and then Duluth. Southerly flow will bring mild air northward and most of what falls in the main round will be rain, except along the low track. Areas north of a line from Morris to Mora have the best shot at a couple inches of snow Tuesday evening, but precip could then turn to rain for a time as the low passes by.
A much more mild morning is being observed across the local area this morning as temperatures have managed to remain mainly above freezing with southerly winds of 15 to 30 mph helping keep the atmosphere mixed across the region.
This ridge should build across the area today, resulting a northerly flow of the past few days becoming NE, then light and variable towards this evening.
Temperatures currently in the 40s and lower 50s are probably at the lowest they are going to get. Lows are expected to be at least 10-12 degrees warmer with upper 50s to mid 60s Tuesday morning. The pressure gradient begins to strengthen Tuesday as cyclogenesis is initiated over the Plains and frontogenesis (warm front) takes place over Texas. Most notable element tomorrow will be the warmer temperatures as 80s return to the region with a few peaks of sunshine as clouds partially clear west to east.
402 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions and seasonable temperatures to start the work week.
Have issued a Fire Danger Statement (SPS) to highlight the lower RH values this afternoon and early evening.
358 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Arctic high pressure will modify while building from the lower MS Valley to the middle Atlantic through Tuesday. Freezing and sub-freezing temperatures are developing over the western and northern Piedmont with the clearing skies there. Otherwise, expect a mostly sunny day as the mid/upper trough pull out to our east late today and the high pressure moves overhead.
A weak ridge aloft that had built over the Rockies was flattening as a closed low moving into the Pacific NW keeps moving east, with northwest flow over the forecast area expected to become more zonal through the day. The expectation is for this low to tighten and deepen as it moves east later in the day Tuesday and into Tuesday night, with a deformation zone developing on the north side of the low. There is some potential for this enhancement to produce higher snowfall totals in the southeast James River Valley Tuesday afternoon/evening, with the highest forecast snow amounts in this area. Overall, expecting a general 2 to 5 inches from the Highway 200 corridor south to the South Dakota border, with the exception of far western North Dakota (Beach to Watford City area).
552 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Warmer temperatures are here for week starting today! Highs for today will be seasonable with temperatures in the 50s. With the warmer temperatures comes a wetter pattern.
914 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Satellite and surface analysis imagery are showing the cold front associated cloudiness finally moving out of the region while drier air-mass is filling in over the region. As a result, low temperatures this morning were on the cooler side, upper 30s north to lower/mid 50s south. Gusty, northerly breeze will make it feel that much cooler outside. High pressure regains control decreasing rain chances and allowing a drier airmass to move in.
729 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Delmarva Coast to the Lower Mississippi Valley will provide dry and moderately breezy weather with a gradual warming trend for the first half of this week.
920 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure overhead today shifts east Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a west- east-oriented cold front will slowly progress southward into the forecast area this evening, then likely stall across Lower MI tonight. A west-east-oriented cold front will slowly progress southward this evening, then stall tonight, approximately bisecting the lake.
But despite the weak WAA/increasing dewpoints, high temperatures today will remain from 10 to 15 degrees below normal: ranging from the upper 50s across the northern half of the CWA to the lower and mid 60s south. Per the return of warm/moist Gulf air, high temp temperatures on Tues will climb into the lower and mid 70s with lows Tues night in the lower to mid 60 (which are forecasted to be the highs for today!! *yikes*).
Key Messages: - A warm front stalled out across central Nebraska will be the focus for mixed precipitation, including light snow, and light freezing rain Tuesday morning.
UPDATE No change to the current forecast with high pressure and clear skies this morning. Another sunny yet below normal March day across the area with minimal weather impacts as high pressure ridge axis slides across the area with light north winds becoming easterly this afternoon and evening. Temps will over the past couple days have been slightly warmer than most of the blended guidance, showing a cool bias that perhaps the increasing sun angle and aging snowpack are finally overcoming.
1055 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions and seasonable temperature to start the work week.
945 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Arctic high pressure will modify while building from the lower Mississippi Valley to the middle Atlantic through Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure will largely remain in place today/tonight. While the airmass modifies tonight, MOS and NBM guidance still shows a high probability for central NC to be below freezing. A moderating trend will begin Tuesday as high pressure modifies over the region and slips east. Expect mainly sunny skies with a few cirrus with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
628 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure overhead today shifts east Tuesday.
An upper trough is approaching the coast early this morning and it's resulting in isolated to scattered showers over most of the area. The upper trough will move through the forecast area late this morning followed by weak ridging in the afternoon. An upper low will move south into northern California Monday night into Tuesday.
711 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023 No change to the current forecast with high pressure and clear skies this morning. Another sunny yet below normal March day across the area with minimal weather impacts as high pressure ridge axis slides across the area with light north winds becoming easterly this afternoon and evening. Temps will over the past couple days have been slightly warmer than most of the blended guidance, showing a cool bias that perhaps the increasing sun angle and aging snowpack are finally overcoming.
Cold-air advection (CAA) under clearing skies is still on track to bring freezing temperatures over the next several hours to the warned counties excluding the Big Bend, lower I-75 corridor, and coastal locations (sans South Walton). As the strong high pressure pivots eastward from the lower MS Valley this evening, low-level winds veer out of the northeast while slackening to around 5 mph or less under mostly cloud-free skies. However, tonight's lows are slated to remain just above freezing outside of isolated normally cold spots or where winds go calm. Seas will improve as well due to high pressure building over the waters through the middle of the week.
Quiet conditions continue today as we remain under a high pressure system in Canada.
An upper disturbance will then dig southeastward across the NERN PAC this afternoon and tonight before evolving into a closed low offshore from the Bay Area during Tuesday. However, bands of showers will likely spread north from the low, impacting Mendocino and Lake Counties by midday Tuesday, and then portions of Trinity, Humboldt, and perhaps Del Norte Counties Tuesday afternoon and evening. In addition, moderate easterlies will promote downslope warming across coastal Humboldt and Del Norte Counties, which will aid in boosting high temperatures into the mid to upper 50s, with a few locations possibly reaching the low 60s.
1001 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure will keep dry conditions over the area today and into Tuesday, with a warming trend expected.
655 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions and seasonable temperatures to start the work week.
This will lead to one more night of near freezing temperatures for portions of the forecast area tonight.
628 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure will keep dry conditions over the area today and into Tuesday, with a warming trend expected.
405 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Key Messages: - A warm front stalled out across central Nebraska will be the focus for mixed precipitation, including light snow, and light freezing rain Tuesday morning.
550 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Arctic high pressure will modify while building from the lower MS Valley to the middle Atlantic through Tuesday. Freezing and sub-freezing temperatures are developing over the western and northern Piedmont with the clearing skies there. Otherwise, expect a mostly sunny day as the mid/upper trough pull out to our east late today and the high pressure moves overhead.
Surface analysis places the cold front that resulted in the unsettled weather yesterday and overnight last night now extending from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward through the Bahamas. As high pressure continues to build over the Southeast today, drier, continental air will continue filter across the island chain. Current thinking is there will be enough solar insolation to get temperatures to still rebound to the lower 70s by late afternoon, although this is a bit uncertain given the cool northerlies counteracting the diurnal warming. From synopsis, a frontal boundary continuing to push eastward out of the Straits of Florida along with high pressure building in its wake across the Southeast will result in freshened north to northeast breezes this afternoon.
335 AM MDT Mon Mar 20 2023 The main forecast concern is the areas of freezing fog this morning, related to its severity and evolution. A deck of low clouds has slowly progressed westward from North Dakota early this morning, as a weak backdoor cold front pushes through with light easterly surface winds. This is reducing visibility along with areas of freezing fog. Thus, decided to go with areas of freezing fog slowly diminishing this morning, but closely monitoring if it gets more dense and persistent.
624 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents today and tomorrow - Slowly warming up this week Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level trough across the eastern CONUS and ridging along the West Coast which leaves us in a quasi-zonal flow regime. At the surface, a coastal trough is beginning to take shape along the coast near the TX/MX border. Onshore flow will increase through the day as the weak coastal trough works north along the coast. This will lead to slightly warmer temps today.
16 Previous short-term discussion: (Through Tuesday) Cold high pressure will continue to build into the area through the morning. As the high pressure slides across we will mix out nicely this afternoon with winds of 8 to 12 mph from the north and extremely dry airmass. As we move into the evening, the high pressure will slide to the east. Before it exits though, temperatures will once again drop to or just below freezing.
A trough will move across southern Idaho and northern Nevada and Utah today. Precipitation on the north end of the low will extend as far north as west central Montana today. Most of the moisture and energy with this system will be farther south, but the higher Sun angle due to it being Spring will help warm up and destabilize the atmosphere this afternoon and evening. The trough pattern remains over the northwestern U.
After the rain exits tomorrow morning, it'll be another breezy day with a lee cyclone in the Rockies/tight surface pressure gradient. Temperatures will be appreciably warmer as a downslope- warmed air mass advects into the Southern Plains.
217 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure overhead today shifts east Tuesday.
1041 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Warmer temperatures are here for week starting today! Highs for today will be seasonable with temperatures in the 50s. With the warmer temperatures comes a wetter pattern.
While the low level jet has weakened, continues increase in pressure gradient will likely result in continued gusts 40 to 45 mph mainly across north central portions of Oklahoma.
as strong zonal flow aloft induces a strong lee trough. Otherwise, with continued south winds and cloud cover, will it be warmer in the 45 to 50 degree range tonight.
316 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) A gradual warming trend is underway, but overnight temperatures are still expected to be below freezing for the majority of North Georgia and portions of Central Georgia warranting another Freeze Warning overnight north of the Columbus and Macon areas. A Frost Advisory has been issued for counties elsewhere in the warning area with some potential for freezing conditions but not enough confidence to include in the Warning at this time.
We'll still fall below freezing, so I'll keep the Freeze Warning headline going, but upper 20s and low 30s will be prevalent.
Another night of temperatures falling to well below seasonal norms is expected tonight, with areas along and north of Highway 84 falling to below freezing.
1255 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents today and tomorrow - Slowly warming up this week Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level trough across the eastern CONUS and ridging along the West Coast which leaves us in a quasi-zonal flow regime. At the surface, a coastal trough is beginning to take shape along the coast near the TX/MX border. Onshore flow will increase through the day as the weak coastal trough works north along the coast. This will lead to slightly warmer temps today.
318 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Delmarva Coast to the Lower Mississippi Valley will provide dry, sunny weather and warmer temperatures for the first half of this week.
1249 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Warmer temperatures are here for week starting today! Highs for today will be seasonable with temperatures in the 50s. With the warmer temperatures comes a wetter pattern.
High pressure centered over the Central Apalachians this evening will move offshore of the Carolinas by days end Tuesday.
125 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Delmarva Coast to the Lower Mississippi Valley will provide dry, sunny weather and warmer temperatures for the first half of this week.
308 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Chilly high pressure builds tonight, moving offshore Tuesday allowing for slightly milder temperatures. Cloud cover is eroding from the west and will continue to do so as dry and chilly high pressure builds in from the north-northwest even as warm air starts to advect over the boundary layer. Highs Tuesday much warmer but still a little shy of climo, and with the overnight warm advection temperatures should rise rather quickly in the morning as soon as mixing ensues.
But despite the cloudy skies expected through the day, warmer daytime highs are forecast to reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most locations, with some upper 70s to near 80 along the Rio Grande and down in Dimmit County. Warmer lows in the low to mid 60s are expected.
SNOW RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO COUNTY, WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY, AND SOUTHWEST A low pressure circulation moving from north central Idaho to southwest Montana through Tuesday morning will produce impressive snowfall rates for portions of the Northern Rockies.
Overnight lows are expected to remain above freezing for most of the region, excluding the north/central eastern portions of MS, where cold air advection will be promoted due to a eastward migrating high pressure and clear to mostly clear skies. Elsewhere, temperatures may reach freezing for an hour or two, but no significant impacts are expected. Highs tomorrow will climb into the lower 60s to lower 70s.
The combination of the sunshine and weak warm air advection west of the I-65 corridor should allow for slightly warmer temperatures there. Further east, late afternoon cloud cover and more neutral advection in the afternoon should keep temperatures cooler, only climbing into the 45 to 50 degree range primarily.
An upper trough will continue to support valley rain/snow and mountain snow showers today. Breezy west winds will accompany a cold front as it moves through the region. A stray thunderstorm is possible in the Lower Snake River Plain on Monday afternoon.
351 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Key Messages: * Cooler with rain chances on Tuesday.
/Issued 1129 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023/ /This afternoon through Tuesday/ Zonal flow aloft and a deepening lee trough across the Central High Plains will result in plenty of mid and upper level cloudiness and increasing southerly winds through the day. Breezy south winds will make it feel even cooler. Even though cloud cover will be extensive on Tuesday, strong low level warm/moist advection will yield warmer and more humid weather with highs ranging from the mid 60s in the northeast to the mid 70s in the west.
Sensible weather features another cold night as temperatures drop into the upper teens to mid 20s in our typically colder valley locations and to around 30 on the ridges. A broad area of isentropic lift will develop over the Lower Ohio, mid Mississippi valley by Tuesday which then spreads eastward into eastern Kentucky Tuesday night.
Surface ridging will continue to keep conditions fairly quiet and cold overnight. Winds will be relatively tame as low pressure only starts to close off once it moves off to the northeast.
313 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions and seasonable temperature to start the work week.
211 PM MDT Mon Mar 20 2023 A weak backdoor cold front was moving through the area today, with winds shifting to the northeast behind it, but continuing to be gusty from the south to southwest across the southern periphery of the forecast area. The front will retreat as a warm front with areas of fog possible along/on the cool side of the front Tuesday morning.
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 140 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Satellite and surface analysis imagery are showing the cold front associated cloudiness finally moving out of the region while drier air-mass is filling in over the region. As a result, low temperatures this morning were on the cooler side, upper 30s north to lower/mid 50s south. Gusty, northerly breeze will make it feel that much cooler outside. High pressure regains control decreasing rain chances and allowing a drier airmass to move in.
Stayed on the higher side of guidance as a result concerning low temperatures tonight. Skies will be mostly cloudy areawide for your Tuesday but low level warm air advection will result in a steady warmup despite the cloud cover with highs on Tuesday ranging from the middle 60s north to the lower 70s south. Even warmer overnight low temperatures are forecast for Tuesday Night as cloud cover and winds will again help to hold temps up.
Fog doesn't look that likely tonight as the airmass remains rather unstable with dewpoints on the lower side. An upper trough is approaching the coast early this morning and it's resulting in isolated to scattered showers over most of the area. The upper trough will move through the forecast area late this morning followed by weak ridging in the afternoon. An upper low will move south into northern California Monday night into Tuesday.
1201 PM MDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Snow is moving into the west this morning as a trough moves into Wyoming. Near and above freezing daytime temperatures will keep valley location accumulations down. However, overnight rates could again become moderate to heavy as an upper low develops over Wyoming. Amounts of half an inch to three inches possible for the lower elevations of the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County through mid-Tuesday. A bit of a lull is expected to follow as the trough exits the area.
High temperatures will range from the lower 70s for locations experiencing more sunshine, to around 70 in the more overcast locations.
Continued westerly flow over the Rockies will help induce an area of low pressure this evening.