Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
627 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 (This evening through Wednesday Night) This short term forecast period will be defined primarily by the presence of the cold front along a pseudo-stationary boundary draped across the ArkLaTex, generally remaining just north of the I-20 corridor.
Soundings do support a window of freezing drizzle potential this evening before we saturate the column aloft, mainly along the I- 29 corridor.
949 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions tonight.
Key Messages: -A Winter Weather Advisory has been hoisted tonight across parts of nrn Nebraska for the freezing drizzle. -Another area to watch for freezing drizzle is southwest Nebraska and the Sandhills where ceilings are low and NDOR indicates wet roads.
646 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) - Well above normal temperatures continue with no significant chances for precipitation An upper level ridge will persist over South Texas through the short term forecast. A series of s/w troughs will pass well to our north maintaining a warm moist onshore flow.
Weather remains quiet, warm and dry for the next several days with the prevailing flow remaining west southwesterly to nearly zonal as passing troughs remain well to our north.
843 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 Water vapor imagery this evening shows an upper-level low taking shape of the coast of the PacNW while ridging is in place over the Midwest. But also given the dry air and northerly winds in the wake of last night's cold front, lows will be colder than last night while remaining above the freezing mark. Rain is still expected tomorrow although showers will be delayed until the afternoon as the atmosphere takes time to moisten up in the lower levels. (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) It's a cooler day out there today as temperatures across the mid- state are sitting around 60-65 degrees. Winds turned out of the north overnight so that's helping keep the temperatures cooler.
Any freezing drizzle should be limited, with a few slick spots possible mainly along and east of highway 281.
Quiet and seasonably chilly weather is expected for Wednesday as cold Canadian high pressure remains to our north. High temperatures will stay below normals over much of central PA, with the lower Susquehanna Valley being closer to normal. Warren/McKean counties will be about 10F cooler than typical for this time of year.
923 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2023 Strong high pressure reaching from central Canada to the Carolinas is providing us with quiet weather tonight with dry air in the low levels.
650 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2023 Dry but cooler on Wednesday behind a cold front.
Aloft, our area is positioned under the backside of an upper ridge with WSW flow at H500.
(Tonight) High pressure at the surface centered well to our north, will remain in place across the Tennessee Valley tonight.
630 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 Tonight through Wednesday Night: With an upper-level ridge axis squarely overhead today, temperatures have remained warm despite a weak cold front dropping south into the area. Dew points have dropped only modestly (around 58 degrees through the Highway 82 corridor as of 2 PM) so far, but drier air has been gradually mixing into the boundary layer as is evident by the slowly thinning cumulus field across the region.
910 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2023 Blustery conditions will persist into tonight behind a cold front.
Key Messages: - Light drizzle, freezing drizzle, or snow possible beginning tonight and continuing into tomorrow.
236 PM MST Tue Mar 7 2023 Afternoon analysis shows a weak upper low over southern Saskatchewan with a trough extending southeastward across the central Dakotas. Cold high pressure has slid southward into western South Dakota where some locations in northwestern SD are seeing highs only in the single digits above zero this afternoon. A persistent SW-NE oriented band of light snow continues from southwestern SD and east of the Black Hills toward north central South Dakota as isentropic lift continues along the low level baroclinic zone.
357 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 Key Messages: -A Winter Weather Advisory has been hoisted tonight across parts of nrn Nebraska for the freezing drizzle. -Another area to watch for freezing drizzle is southwest Nebraska and the Sandhills where ceilings are low and NDOR indicates wet roads.
949 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2023 A dry cold front pushes southeast into the Carolinas this afternoon.
528 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) It's a cooler day out there today as temperatures across the mid- state are sitting around 60-65 degrees. Winds turned out of the north overnight so that's helping keep the temperatures cooler.
653 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2023 A dry cold front pushes southeast into the Carolinas this afternoon.
1236 AM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 Dry but cooler on Wednesday behind a cold front.
Mild outside this evening too with currents warmer than average highs this time of year even where cooler 60s reside north of the front.
Another round of snow showers with gusty winds is on track for Wednesday as the main trough axis swings through the region.
1008 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 (Issued 1000 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023) Weather will remain quiet tonight as a ridge extends southward from Canada into the Upper Great Lakes. CMiller (Issued 343 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023) Tonight through Wednesday night: High clouds will gradually spread east into the area tonight and linger Wednesday and Wednesday night, as a large area of high pressure in south central Canada lingers. Temperatures should remain near or a little above seasonal normals during this period, with onshore winds keeping lakeshore areas a little cooler than inland.
Between the winds and cloud cover think current forecast may be a bit too cool, especially given how far away the lower to mid 40s temperatures are upstream of the area to our northeast. Still think cold air advection may lower temperatures into the lower to mid 40s in portions of southern middle Tennessee and near the AL/GA line though around daybreak.
Observations suggest the warm front may be up to the highway 84 corridor, where dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Tonight through Wednesday Night: With an upper-level ridge axis squarely overhead today, temperatures have remained warm despite a weak cold front dropping south into the area. Dew points have dropped only modestly (around 58 degrees through the Highway 82 corridor as of 2 PM) so far, but drier air has been gradually mixing into the boundary layer as is evident by the slowly thinning cumulus field across the region.
1044 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) - Well above normal temperatures continue with no significant chances for precipitation An upper level ridge will persist over South Texas through the short term forecast. A series of s/w troughs will pass well to our north maintaining a warm moist onshore flow.
1019 PM MST Tue Mar 7 2023 Afternoon analysis shows a weak upper low over southern Saskatchewan with a trough extending southeastward across the central Dakotas. Cold high pressure has slid southward into western South Dakota where some locations in northwestern SD are seeing highs only in the single digits above zero this afternoon. A persistent SW-NE oriented band of light snow continues from southwestern SD and east of the Black Hills toward north central South Dakota as isentropic lift continues along the low level baroclinic zone.
1026 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 Water vapor imagery this evening shows an upper-level low taking shape of the coast of the PacNW while ridging is in place over the Midwest. But also given the dry air and northerly winds in the wake of last night's cold front, lows will be colder than last night while remaining above the freezing mark. Rain is still expected tomorrow although showers will be delayed until the afternoon as the atmosphere takes time to moisten up in the lower levels. (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) It's a cooler day out there today as temperatures across the mid- state are sitting around 60-65 degrees. Winds turned out of the north overnight so that's helping keep the temperatures cooler.
1046 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) A warm and humid airmass maintains through Wednesday night as modest upper level ridging remains oriented along the northern Gulf coast while light to moderate south-southeasterly winds continue at the surface and low-levels of the atmosphere. A cold front will advance south across portions of the San Angelo and Fort Worth CWAs tonight but is expected to stall out prior to reaching our northern CWA border.
200 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 Weak mid level support west of a mid level ridge (to our east) will result in a chance of light rain or sprinkles today, with the best chance along and west of the MS River where slightly deeper moisture will exist.
This along with upper level ridging will keep the Lower Ohio Valley quiet through the short term, but with that being said, the region will remain under mostly cloudy skies as upper and mid layer clouds continue to work east from precipitation over Missouri. Model soundings show very dry air in the low levels, so believe precipitation will have a hard time reaching the ground. The coolest temperatures will be across southeast Indiana into the Bluegrass region of Kentucky with warmer temperatures to the south and west.
Breezes will freshen and turn to the northeast to east Wednesday night as a backdoor cold front moves from east to west through the coastal waters.
Issued by National Weather Service Nashville TN 1144 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 Cooler air has arrived behind a cold front. temperatures will trend warmer after midweek with periods of rain and possibly a few thunderstorms.
330 AM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 High pressure ridging south into the Ohio Valley will provide dry conditions today.
At the surface, a back-door cold front will push down the Florida peninsula today with increasing cloudiness and a slight chance of a shower mainly near the coast south of Tampa this afternoon.
1223 AM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions tonight.
an area of high pressure remains over the NW Gulf of Mexico, leading to southerly to southeasterly flow from the surface through the 700mb layer.
412 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 Today tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a large center of high pressure to our north with a stalled frontal boundary draped across our southern zones. Morning lows Thursday will be warmer than normal again with the warmest temperatures in the mid 60s across our southern zones. This should help steer the building low-pressure system across the Ohio River Valley by Thursday morning.
417 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 Key Messages: * Light drizzle/freezing drizzle remains a possibility this morning which could leave a light glaze on surfaces.
535 AM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 Dry weather is expected through Thursday under high pressure.
242 AM MST Wed Mar 8 2023 Flow aloft today will turn to the SW as a Pacific Coast upper trough deepens.
550 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper levels today have a weak ridge extending up from the Gulf of Mexico across E TX/LA to the Great Lakes as a trough moves ashore the OR/CA coast. This trough will rotate inland moving into NV this afternoon and into CO tonight.
650 AM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 Dry high pressure will be over the eastern United States today through Thursday.
A much stronger, warmer, and wetter storm will then impact almost the entire CWA, with large amounts of rainfall below 8000ft, which will cause rapid snowmelt from 2000ft to 5000ft due to the increasing snow levels.
In the upper levels, a broad trough was rotating over much of the western CONUS, with southwest flow over the Northern Plains. With the track of the low add the weak mid-level height falls into North Dakota, the trend away from moderate to heavy snow continues and is reflected in the WPC PWPF probabilities depicting medium chances for exceeding 4 inches of accumulation across the south but very low chances for 6 inches.
523 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 Weak mid level support west of a mid level ridge (to our east) will result in a chance of light rain or sprinkles today, with the best chance along and west of the MS River where slightly deeper moisture will exist. There will be better support during this time frame as low pressure develops and tracks across Missouri and Illinois, in response to an upper level low over the Upper Midwest that will move east.
Key Messages: - Light drizzle, freezing drizzle, or very light snow expected at times today and into early tonight. At 850 mb, cold air was in place from the Dakotas and MN down into western KS but warmer air was surging north into parts of our area from OK, MO and eastern KS. Some light snow or patchy freezing drizzle was noted in parts of SD and central NE, probably also into the northwest parts of northeast NE to the west and north of KOFK. The area in between is the most problematic and where the highest population resides.
As a trough slides well to our north through tomorrow afternoon, the stalled frontal boundary to our southwest begins to lift northward slightly. This effective warm front will be the forcing for scattered to numerous showers with a few elevated thunderstorms through the morning and afternoon.
Early this morning a broad trough was located over the Eastern Pacific into the West Coast with ridging over the eastern Conus. A cool northeast flow at the surface will continue to moisten the low levels this morning. This will inducing negative omega (rising motion) in the low levels resulting in periods of drizzle through the day and into this evening. Precipitation chances increase tonight as a mid level trough moves across the central Plains increasing forcing for ascent across the region. Highs on Thursday will range from the lower 40s in far northeast Kansas to the lower 50s in central and east central Kansas.
541 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 (Today through Thursday) Mid level ridging will dominate through the rest of the work week, helping to keep Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley warm and generally rain-free for the next couple of days. The pressure gradient will remain moderate to strong between high pressure to our east and lower pressure across the Southern Plains, along with the diurnally fluctuating thermal trough over the Mexican Plateau. Even with some models picking up on some marine fog in the nearshore waters in the short term, satellite products are showing that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are increasing to the lower 70s, which will help hinder fog formation that could potentially impact the immediate coast.
Above this lies a lower to mid level ridge, within which, the primary substantial subsidence inversion is based quite high at 700 mb. Meanwhile, a significant shift in our weather pattern is not far off as a sprawling low pressure system off the Atlantic coast and a high blanketing eastern North America continue to drive southeastward. The sprawling Atlantic low and North American high will continue to drive southeastward and thrust a backdoor cold front westward through the Keys.
Water vapour loop depicted southwest flow aloft with upper low spinning west of OR.
Looking at model soundings from I-40 and north, the low levels will struggle to moisten today with better moisture being confined to the southwest part of the CWA. That low will lift northeastward into the Midwest dragging a cold front through Middle Tennessee Thursday night with more showers and potential an isolated rumble of thunder.
529 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 Today tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a large center of high pressure to our north with a stalled frontal boundary draped across our southern zones. Morning lows Thursday will be warmer than normal again with the warmest temperatures in the mid 60s across our southern zones. This should help steer the building low-pressure system across the Ohio River Valley by Thursday morning.
556 AM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 Surface analysis depicts a high pressure center near northwestern Ontario which continues to support an inverted ridge that extends southward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The period will remain mostly quiet under upper level and surface ridging, though a pattern shift is expected toward toward the end of the period. The period will start out with an upper level ridge centered over the southern Gulf with an axis extending northward into southern Ontario. A trough located over the PNW and northern California will dig into the western CONUS while another trough follows right behind. The first trough will make its way eastward across the Rockies and into the Plains by Thursday morning. Temps will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday as northwest flow continues to advect cooler, drier air into the area.
911 AM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 Cold front currently just north of the Nature Coast. As the front comes through drier and slightly cooler air. Biggest difference will be tomorrow morning with lows in the low 60's for most of us. At the surface, a back-door cold front will push down the Florida peninsula today with increasing cloudiness and a slight chance of a shower mainly near the coast south of Tampa this afternoon. High pressure and drier air will build across the region in the wake of the front tonight and Thursday.
At the surface, a back-door cold front will push down the Florida peninsula today with increasing cloudiness and a slight chance of a shower mainly near the coast south of Tampa this afternoon. High pressure and drier air will build across the region in the wake of the front tonight and Thursday.
Can't rule out some patchy freezing drizzle under the lowest clouds through this evening. Went with NBM 10th percentile to try to capture the lower expected highs. There is the potential for locally higher amounts along the ridge line of the Coteau.
Surface analysis depicts a high pressure center near northwestern Ontario which continues to support an inverted ridge that extends southward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The period will remain mostly quiet under upper level and surface ridging, though a pattern shift is expected toward toward the end of the period. The period will start out with an upper level ridge centered over the southern Gulf with an axis extending northward into southern Ontario. A trough located over the PNW and northern California will dig into the western CONUS while another trough follows right behind. The first trough will make its way eastward across the Rockies and into the Plains by Thursday morning. Temps will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday as northwest flow continues to advect cooler, drier air into the area.
922 AM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 Dry weather is expected through Thursday under high pressure.
This should be mostly rain, but if it advances north of I-80 it could mix with snow with surface wet bulbs near the freezing mark. Warm ground, above freezing temps for much of the event creates greater uncertainty on exact amounts. The uncertainties and challenges for accums will revolve around predominantly above freezing air/ground temps with surface/near surface dry and wet bulb temps mostly in the 30s until later Thursday night/Fri AM, with the coldest temps and most favorable zone for accums being north of I-80. In addition, the strengthening March solar insolation working in concert with the above freezing surface could chew away at much of the accumulation during the day on Thursday, outside of any heavy rates which could overwhelm the warm ground for a time.
609 AM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 High pressure ridging south into the Ohio Valley will provide dry conditions today.
(Today) While we still remain in a ridging pattern, a weak upper air disturbance brings low to medium chances of showers (20-60%) late this afternoon into the evening. These chances of showers remain mostly contained to NW AL due to low confidence in them spreading eastward due to high pressure extending from the Great Lakes region southward, keeping drier air in place over the eastern portions of the TN Valley. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 60s with gusts up to 20mph in the early afternoon.
Temperatures will again hover in the mid-70s across the lower deserts today, with scattered clouds filling in from the north. The trough across the Pacific Northwest will dig across northern CA this morning, before moving east across the Great Basin this afternoon. This trough will keep scattered to broken mid to high clouds across the region through this afternoon, as seen in the HREF.
High pressure has built in from the north across the state. High pressure will continue to build down from the north for the remainder of the short term period. However, the front down south will remain active, with several low pressure waves moving east along the boundary increasing the potential for isentropic lift over much of the CWA.
The 3 AM surface analysis showed chilly surface ridging continuing to ooze south throughout the entire Great Plains and this unfortunately will not budge anytime today.
Cannot rule out very patchy drizzle during the early morning hours or a few streamer showers due to the low level jet forcing the moist airmass. Well above normal temperatures continue with the Subtropical Ridge just to our south. This would bring much cooler temperatures into those areas. For now, will go with the blended guidances for the far northern parts of our area with a possibility for cooler temperatures in later forecasts for those areas.
This should be mostly rain, but if it advances north of I-80 it could mix with snow with surface wet bulbs near the freezing mark. The uncertainties and challenges for accums will revolve around predominantly above freezing air/ground temps with surface/near surface dry and wet bulb temps mostly in the 30s until later Thursday night/Fri AM, with the coldest temps and most favorable zone for accums being north of I-80. In addition, the strengthening March solar insolation working in concert with the above freezing surface could chew away at much of the accumulation during the day on Thursday, outside of any heavy rates which could overwhelm the warm ground for a time.
A cooler forecast will trend for locations north of the front with highs that trend in the 70s while a few upper 60s couldn't be completed ruled out. Cannot rule out very patchy drizzle during the early morning hours or a few streamer showers due to the low level jet forcing the moist airmass. Well above normal temperatures continue with the Subtropical Ridge just to our south. This would bring much cooler temperatures into those areas. For now, will go with the blended guidances for the far northern parts of our area with a possibility for cooler temperatures in later forecasts for those areas.
558 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 Key Messages: * Light drizzle/freezing drizzle remains a possibility this morning which could leave a light glaze on surfaces.
350 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 Key Messages: - Light drizzle, freezing drizzle, or very light snow expected at times today and into early tonight. At 850 mb, cold air was in place from the Dakotas and MN down into western KS but warmer air was surging north into parts of our area from OK, MO and eastern KS. Some light snow or patchy freezing drizzle was noted in parts of SD and central NE, probably also into the northwest parts of northeast NE to the west and north of KOFK. The area in between is the most problematic and where the highest population resides.
529 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 (Today) While we still remain in a ridging pattern, a weak upper air disturbance brings low to medium chances of showers (20-60%) late this afternoon into the evening. These chances of showers remain mostly contained to NW AL due to low confidence in them spreading eastward due to high pressure extending from the Great Lakes region southward, keeping drier air in place over the eastern portions of the TN Valley. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 60s with gusts up to 20mph in the early afternoon.
449 AM PST Wed Mar 8 2023 It will remain cooler today with Thursday much warmer but still a few degrees below average.