Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
132 AM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Upper level analysis depicts the Northern Plains sitting under an upper level high. To the east - an upper low sits just off the New England coast and to the west - another upper lows sits just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. For today: As we sit under the high, chances for precipitation are fairly low - though can't completely rule out an afternoon shower or storm bubbling up over the western SD plains where CAPE values will reach 500-1000 J/kg. Ensemble members are in fairly good agreement on the high sitting over the region through mid week, before the strengthening New England upper low starts shoving the ridge further westward. The upper low to the west will stay stubbornly in place and the ridge will be squeezed between the two.
103 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Slow moving low pressure will meander around the New England area and adjacent Atlantic coastal waters through much of the week. Expect and increase in smoke coverage in the higher levels of the atmosphere this evening, as smoke from the fires in Quebec is making its way southward. Upper low will continue to wobble and deepen through the short term as the core of the system goes from MA coast to Nova Scotia. Moisture starved short wave troughs will rotate around the west side of this low toward the region, but little more than some cu coverage is anticipated.
1002 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Upper level analysis shows a mid/upper level high centered over southwestern Manitoba with largely southeasterly flow aloft. At the surface, southeasterly flow dominates with a corridor of dew points in the low 60s to upper 50s stretching through western SD into northeastern WY. The upper high will slowly retrograde southwestward over the coming days, resulting in warm and drier conditions.
143 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Cooler and drier air will move in behind a cold front through Monday.
(Now through Tuesday) A large upper closed low pressure system off the New England coast will lift northward and deepen over Nova Scotia while an upper high pressure system remains stationary over the northern Great Plains and south central Canada. A weak upper trough extending southwest from the large upper low will remain over our region through the near term. High temperatures today and Tuesday will be a little cooler as a result of the increased convective coverage with highs ranging from the mid 80s along the coast to the lower 90s inland.
721 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 (Today through Tuesday) A drier day is in store for Monday as some drier air filters in from the departing mid-level trough and the flow aloft becomes closer to a zonal pattern. Temperatures will reach the upper 80s for most areas again on Monday with locations closer to the lake being a few degrees cooler. Skies clear out quickly in the evening hours with dry conditions for Monday night and temperatures fall into the mid to upper 60s for most areas except the east coast metro where temperatures only fall into the low 70s.
* Very dry air will remain across central Indiana * Potential for smoke to mix down to the surface Central Indiana will remain in between an upper high over central Canada and an upper low across the northeastern USA. At the surface, high pressure will remain in control. Will trend toward the cooler guidance, but there may be some error in areas where smoke is thinnest.
Warmer than normal temperatures and unsettled weather continue through the end of the week. While upper level trofing impacts the region on Tuesday, favoring a cooler day, generally, high temperatures range in the 70s during this forecast period.
The lower levels will dry out a little on Tuesday; but an isolated, afternoon shower or sub-severe t-storm can't be ruled out given the continued lack of a capping inversion and expected weak instability. Upper level ridging is forecast to persist across the northern plains and into western Canada, with an upper trough near the West Coast, and the southern branch of the westerlies undercutting the ridge across the southern plains.
619 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 A mid to upper level ridge will continue to persist over the Plains, causing a high pressure to stay over the Northern Plains over the next couple of days. After looking at a couple of models, they show a weak low pressure system moving southwest into southern Kansas, which could help the forcing for hit or miss storm development. Tuesday shower and storm chances look to be not as high as today due to the weak low pressure system moving south into Oklahoma but after looking at a sounding we still have an uncapped atmosphere across central and eastern Kansas.
Zonal westerly flow aloft remains over the most of the peninsula this morning atop N/NE boundary and low-level flow south of high pressure extending down the E Seaboard to a weak frontal boundary analyzed across the N/Central peninsula. Expect high pressure to ridge down into the state through Tuesday as the frontal boundary weakens and exits into the Atlantic with another front dropping into the SE U. A round of drier air moving into the peninsula with the area of high pressure will lower dewpoints a few degrees through Tuesday mainly for areas along and north of I-4, before deep layer W/SW flow sets up across the peninsula south of the mid week front with deeper moisture returning over the latter half of the week.
Satellite imagery shows clouds continuing to stream into NorCal from the southeast as low pressure approaches the California coast to the southwest of Vandenberg, and radar shows some virga and perhaps a few light showers over the northern Sierra/southern Cascades.
Main pattern from the last few days to remain in place today into Tuesday, with a large blocking upper level ridge centered over the north central US. Moisture remains trapped beneath the upper ridging through the lower levels and has been aiding in the daily afternoon/early evening thunderstorm development. Thermal profiles again keep the freezing level higher around 13k ft or so. Similar pattern with the blocking ridge and diurnally driven thunderstorms to remain in place through mid week. A stronger trough to break down the upper ridge and slide through the area by late in the week.
622 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Unseasonably cooler and drier air continues to affect the area today.
High temperatures to range from the upper 80s across east and northeast Texas to the lower 90s across south Arkansas and north Louisiana both today and Tuesday.
1044 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Seasonably cooler and drier air will be here for much of the upcoming week. Highs today will range from the low to mid 70s across the Central and NW 2/3rds of the CWA, while communities throughout the Susq Valley will likely experience highs in the upper 70s. The lack of appreciable deep layer moisture will keep shower chances quite limited (20-30 percent) during this period and confined to mainly Northern and Eastern PA, where 850-700 mb temps are around 2 deg F cooler and the located beneath the favorable quad of the upper level jet max for enhanced deep layer UVVEL.
Namely, hot afternoon condns in the low to mid 90s at most locations, w/ chances for isolated showers and storms during the later afternoon/evening hours.
Mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms will occur each day, as multiple pieces of mid-level energy pivot around a weak upper-level low under-cutting the ridge and drifting across the central Rockies & Intermountain West. Temperature-wise, finally trending warmer by Tue as ridging aloft tries to expand into the central Rockies and 700- mb temperatures rise to 8-12 deg C across southeast Wyoming. By midweek, this blocking pattern is expected to set up over the central CONUS with an upper level closed low digging southward across the western seaboard and an additional low stalling out more towards the Atlantic Northeast. Luckily, long range models have seems to lock onto a solution with the placement of the Omega Block and each of the upper level lows to our east and west.
642 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Synoptically we have a stationary boundary to our north, with a trough stretching from northwestern MS to the front across northern section of middle TN. Meanwhile high pressure is across the Atlantic basin and stretches into east-central Alabama. Activity today will be across the the western and central sections of the area, basically south of the trough and west of the area of high pressure.
Weak mid level ridging will build over the area while northerly flow at the surface will continue. Showers and storms will favor the higher terrain and northern portions of the Permian Basin this afternoon.
950 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Unseasonably cooler and drier air continues to affect the area today.
942 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Cold front will move south across the Great Lakes late Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure Tuesday night through the end of the week. North to south moving 500mb trough axis/PVA brings brief cloud cover this morning, but dry due to continued lack of low/mid level moisture. Longwave pattern aloft persists with the upper low off the New England coast characteristic of slightly below normal temperatures for the eastern CWA and the aforementioned lack of column humidity. Weak cold front late Monday night into Tuesday with a strengthening deformation zone might be able to trigger isolated convection just south of the CWA Tuesday upon exit. Generally quiet weather is expected through the short term period with weak high pressure influencing much of the weather pattern across the Lower Great Lakes region.
Quiet weather for today and tonight, with high pressure aloft and at the surface. Highs will range from the mid to upper 70s near Lake Michigan to the low 80s inland. Winds should remain light today, thus there are limited if any weather concerns despite warmer temperatures and minimum afternoon RH values around 20 percent. At the surface, we have a backdoor cold front arriving tonight and lingering in the vicinity through Tuesday night. Additionally, our upper level ridge begins its westward shift, with the far fringes of the broad upper low (centered over the NE CONUS) encompassing our CWA. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s near Lake Michigan, and the low to mid 80s inland (warmest along and south of of US 24).
421 AM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Upper level analysis depicts the Northern Plains sitting under an upper level high. To the east - an upper low sits just off the New England coast and to the west - another upper lows sits just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. For today: As we sit under the high, chances for precipitation are fairly low - though can't completely rule out an afternoon shower or storm bubbling up over the western SD plains where CAPE values will reach 500-1000 J/kg. Ensemble members are in fairly good agreement on the high sitting over the region through mid week, before the strengthening New England upper low starts shoving the ridge further westward. The upper low to the west will stay stubbornly in place and the ridge will be squeezed between the two.
RAP and HRRR are generally in agreement that smoke concentrations aloft will be much lower going into the afternoon hours before finally clearing out behind the cold frontal passage tonight. Shower chances will spread southward during the overnight hours along a weak cold front, with the best potential across southwestern and south-central Wisconsin. As the cold front moves southeastward out of the area on Tuesday, some isolated showers and thunderstorms may linger across far southwestern Wisconsin.
Otherwise, a trough axis will develop over the Middle and Upper Texas Coasts today and tonight.
08Z sfc analysis shows weak low pressure over Kentucky south of a large area of high pressure through the northern Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, temperatures are fairly uniform through the area - generally in the low and mid 60s, though some of the valleys are reporting upper 50s. They all depict the expanding 5h closed low trough to the northeast sending height falls into Kentucky today and tonight. The expanding trough, centered east of Maine, will then send another impulse south toward the JKL CWA late Tuesday. Hazy conditions continue tonight with more in the way of a ridge to valley temperature split and river valley fog.
Highs today might be a couple of degrees cooler on average than yesterday across most locations, ranging from upper 80s to lower 90s, lower 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. A weak surface cold front should move through our area north to south tonight also, maybe providing a little drier airmass to our region with lows now expected to be around seasonal normal values. Looking to our north, a strong surface cold front is expected to move into Ohio Valley Region late Tuesday afternoon with a substantially drier and less humid airmass behind it.
341 AM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Blocking pattern remains in place with lows over New England and southern California with a high over the northern plains.
654 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Unseasonably cooler and drier air continues to affect the area today.
We continue to see broad high pressure across most of North America, with a strong high center consolidated over southern Canada and the northern plains. Another day where heights and thicknesses will support seasonable temperatures a degree or two above average across SE AZ, including 100+ from Tucson into the lower deserts. A little cyclogenesis as the low pushes into the western flank of the ridge, with the gradient increasing to breezy levels at times later today and Tuesday. The low will eventually start to fill as it loses higher latitude support later in the week.
As we head into late tonight into Tuesday, a well-advertised backdoor cold front will dive southward over the region, increasing chances of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm with it during the early morning hours. The high-res CAM guidance is showing some disagreement on the spatial coverage of the precipitation as it enters the forecast area, so mainly went with slight chance to low- end chance PoPs for now.
The rollers on the conveyer belts are an upper level low to the southwest of the area, and the persistent high pressure over the northern plains states and south central Canada. The least coverage should be in Johnson County, which will be closer to the ridge and drier air. We could see more sunshine today as well, and this should push temperatures into the 80s in the warmer spots.
631 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows a somewhat messy trough over the region, with several circulations/vort maxes embedded within a general cyclonic pattern. At the surface, weak ridging along the Gulf coast was yielding a light and variable wind pattern.
Despite limited moisture advection, chances for showers and storms will increase during peak heating hours this afternoon as a prefrontal trough axis shifts into the area and aids in destabilization.
Elevated shower and thunderstorm chances return each day this week along with cooler temperatures.
Really, not a whole lot of overall change to the forecast though there will be some nuance details that will change as the upper high drifts closer to the area, with a subtle ridge axis overhead today which means a slightly less supportive overall environment for weak convection. The upper high weakens as it drifts overhead Tuesday.
An upper level low currently centered just off the southern CA coast will bring mid-level moisture up into central Nevada today, where skies will be mostly cloudy. Wettest storms are expected near and north of the Highway 50 corridor where PWs will range from 0.
639 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Cold front will move south across the Great Lakes late Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure Tuesday night through the end of the week. North to south moving 500mb trough axis/PVA brings brief cloud cover this morning, but dry due to continued lack of low/mid level moisture. Longwave pattern aloft persists with the upper low off the New England coast characteristic of slightly below normal temperatures for the eastern CWA and the aforementioned lack of column humidity. Weak cold front late Monday night into Tuesday with a strengthening deformation zone might be able to trigger isolated convection just south of the CWA Tuesday upon exit. Generally quiet weather is expected through the short term period with weak high pressure influencing much of the weather pattern across the Lower Great Lakes region.
620 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Dry air is being ushered in from the east as high pressure builds over the northern Plains. High temperatures today are forecast to be 2-5 degrees cooler as northeasterly winds drive cooler air into the area. MMG/Glass An Omega Block will set in over the CONUS by mid-week with an expanding upper low over the NE CONUS supporting short wave troughs traversing through the Mid-Mississippi River Valley.
A passing cold front tomorrow could develop showers south of Pittsburgh tomorrow. GOES-16 water vapor and mosaic radar imagery depicts a band of high cirrus clouds advancing along a cold front this morning. Previous Discussion: High pressure continues to ensure dry conditions once again through the period. The upper low will continue to wobble and deepen through the short term as the core of the system goes from MA coast to Nova Scotia. Moisture starved short wave troughs will rotate around the west side of this low toward the region, but little more than some cu coverage is anticipated for much of the area. A small exception can be made for the eastern forecast area where the ridges may provide some lift for a few showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.
Skies will range from partly to mostly cloudy, with highs in the low 80s at the coast and mid 80s inland.
450 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Dry air is being ushered in from the east as high pressure builds over the northern Plains. High temperatures today are forecast to be 2-5 degrees cooler as northeasterly winds drive cooler air into the area. MMG/Glass An Omega Block will set in over the CONUS by mid-week with an expanding upper low over the NE CONUS supporting short wave troughs traversing through the Mid-Mississippi River Valley.
The stagnant middle tropospheric pattern will continue through Tuesday with essentially a repeat of what we are seeing today: Light winds at 10 mph or less, afternoon temperatures topping out in the lower 80s (mid 80s farther east into central/south central Kansas), and afternoon isolated to widely scattered showers and storms. Thus, more highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
216 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Main weather story over the next several days will be the gradually increasing thunderstorm coverage late this week into early next as dominant upper ridge meanders across the central CONUS.
356 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 A low pressure system and cold front will increase clouds and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday. Other than the thin smoke and haze potential, some expanding cloud cover and a few showers could drop south into our region well ahead of upper energy and an associated cold front. Upper low off New England backs west gradually while strong upper energy rotates south out of Canada around the western periphery of the upper low into the northeastern U. Scattered showers in the morning in northern areas will become showers and thunderstorms as they track south into the warmer temperatures and more instability.
As the clouds have shifted south early this afternoon, temps have rebounded into the lower 80s away from the lake and a few mid 80s will be possible in the next few hours. Lows tonight should be warmer than last night especially with increasing cloud cover later tonight, generally upper 50s/lower 60s.
There are also some thunderstorms in far northern Minnesota associated with an incoming backdoor cold front. Even though we are under a ridge, steep lapse rates and plenty of instability and moisture create the chances for showers and thunderstorms through mid-week.
Temperatures are on track to top out in the low to mid 90s this afternoon under hazy skies. Coverage will be a bit higher than the past several days as a backdoor cold front sags into the region from the northeast.
Showers and thunderstorms (20-50%) this afternoon and evening with the highest chance of showers and storms extending across portions of Lander, Eureka, and Elko counties this evening. Another low pressure system is set to move onto the California coast that will bring more unsettled weather to central and northern Nevada through the remainder of the week. A weak ridge of high pressure over the area today will result in less intense and slightly fewer storms across the area this afternoon and evening (20-50%) chances. Tuesday, a fairly active subtropical jet between 20 to 30 degrees north is forecast to bring another low pressure system up along the southern CA coast.
232 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 (Issued 232 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023) Tonight through Tuesday night: A cold front will drop southward through the forecast area tonight, stalling just southwest of Wisconsin on Tuesday. Low temps will return to near normal values Tue night behind the cold front.
This is as the remnants of the tropical cyclone Arlene continues to move eastward and well away from the Florida Keys. The Florida Peninsula remains entrenched in a stubborn, broad area of troughiness. However, given overall aforementioned troughiness, it is hard to take rain chances out completely. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the island chain, and boaters should expect less clearance under lower fixed bridges, particularly during times of high time. From synopsis, a remnant low associated with post tropical cyclone Arlene will continue to push eastward and away from the Florida Keys coastal waters.
A stagnant pattern continues for the Florida Keys, with a stubborn, broad upper level trough remarkably still planted in the Gulf of Mexico. For tonight, despite the aforementioned troughiness, light steering flow combined with a below normal moisture profile should continue to limit any convective development. A low- and mid-level ridge over the Mid-Atlantic will continue to build slowly build westwards towards the Florida Peninsula throughout the work week. The Florida Keys will be left squeezed between this feature and the largely-unchanged upper-level trough in the Gulf.
247 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023 High pressure over the Northern Plains sandwiched between two upper low systems will keep temperatures above normal for the next couple of days.
This is thanks to the high pressure system dominating the central United States, and a weakening low west of Wyoming. Best chances look to be over the higher terrain, where more scattered convection is forecasted. Mainly 70s will be seen across the area, with the warmer locations of the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County seeing up to the mid-80s. The high pressure system will slowly retrograde towards Wyoming, continuing the diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms, as well as the near to slightly above seasonal temperatures.
1115 AM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Upper level analysis depicts the Northern Plains sitting under an upper level high. To the east - an upper low sits just off the New England coast and to the west - another upper lows sits just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. For today: As we sit under the high, chances for precipitation are fairly low - though can't completely rule out an afternoon shower or storm bubbling up over the western SD plains where CAPE values will reach 500-1000 J/kg. Ensemble members are in fairly good agreement on the high sitting over the region through mid week, before the strengthening New England upper low starts shoving the ridge further westward. The upper low to the west will stay stubbornly in place and the ridge will be squeezed between the two.