Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This will be key as precipitation arrives ahead a of a warm front later today. Although warmer air will start pushing in aloft, wet bulbing and cold air locked in place at the surface will allow precipitation to likely start off as light snow or a wintry mix early this afternoon. Forecast soundings look favorable for at least a brief period of freezing rain for northern Oneida County this evening into tonight, before transitioning to rain. Elsewhere, parts of the Catskills and Allegheny Plateau in Steuben County may also see some freezing rain. The exceptions could be across northern Oneida county and the highest elevations of the Catskills where 1-2 inches of snow is possible. For Wednesday, new low pressure will develop along the Mid Atlantic Coast along a frontal wave.
514 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front will drop temperatures significantly across the region this afternoon. Lows will be right around the freezing mark for many locations.
Overnight low temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley may drop below freezing over the weekend. A ridge of high pressure aloft is building inland across California, with afternoon highs yesterday topping out right around normal for the latter part of November.
Lows should be near or a couple degrees cooler than normal.
Quiet weather expected for the next couple of days until a Thanksgiving system returns slight rain chances to the southern Great Basin, and cooler temperatures with gusty north winds to the forecast area into the weekend. The windy trough will continue to push eastward out of our forecast area, which will relax surface gradients along the Colorado River Valley.
A sharp ridge has built over the region and will dominate the weather today. If these conditions were to last for more than a day, we would be concerned about stagnant air, but alas another mediocre weather system is on the way as can be seen by the high clouds moving into the region today. Due to a combination of warmer temperatures and later timing of the arrival of the trough, the chances of freezing rain look lower and generally remain below 10 percent across western Montana.
-Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday/ Dry northerly low-level flow prevails behind yesterday's strong cold front, with wrap-around moisture resulting in widespread low stratus working in from the north. /Issued 244 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023/ /Wednesday Night Onward/ An upper low located near Mazatlan at the start of the period will be kicked northeast across Mexico as a second, larger-scale low deepens over the Great Basin.
Cold air advection and lower dewpoints are helping temperatures drop into the 40s across the Permian Basin, and these temperatures are expected areawide by sunrise with some 30s expected in the higher elevations. A few locations in the northwestern Permian Basin, southeastern New Mexico, and the higher elevations west of the Pecos River will drop below freezing so proper precautions should be made for plants and pets.
High pressure will build into the area early this week, with a period of valley inversion through Wednesday.
- Slight warm-up Wednesday before a shift to cooler, but near average conditions. Bands of scattered light rain showers that are part of a passing cold front are continuing to make their way across Minnesota and western Wisconsin before dissipating a few hours after daybreak today. Wednesday's highs are forecasted to be 10-15 degrees warmer than they are today thanks to this southwesterly flow. Flow becomes more zonal for the weekend with little improvement from cooler temperatures.
(Today through Wednesday) Based on dewpoints over the past hours, it appears now that the warm front finally got dragged up by the low and is now located generally along a Jasper to Pell City line. 16 Previous short-term discussion: (Today through Wednesday) So far we remain north of the warm front. As the low moves further northward through the morning and into the afternoon, the front will lift, but we just will not be in the warm sector that long for widespread severe weather. Additional showers may develop overnight across the north and then slide southeast through Wednesday morning in association with the upper low as it swings through.
308 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2023 =================================================================== Key Messages * Dreary Conditions Into Wednesday Afternoon =================================================================== The surface cold front is now east of an FFT to AAS to GLW line, and will continue to slowly progress eastward into the evening.
1121 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 (Today through Wednesday) The prefrontal trough is currently passing and is located from about Picayune to Houma. The actual cold front is lagging but is found from Jackson MS to Lafayette. Temps will fall back several degrees today but CAA will continue through today and tonight causing temps to struggle to reach the lower 60s Wed.
117 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2023 Low pressure will track northeast across the central Great Lakes today, before reforming off the New England coast on Wednesday. Air and road surface temperatures have warmed above freezing over most of Somerset and Cambria Counties as of early afternoon, so have allowed the Winter Weather Advisory to expire there. Still watching temperatures closely over I80 in western Clearfield County where air temps are still slightly below freezing, while roadway temps remain above freezing. Sub advisory gustiness occurring on the higher ridges of the Laurels with gusts over 30 mph there. The rain should taper off from west to east tonight, as the low level jet and plume of deep moisture shifts east of the state.
Winds turn northwesterly 5-10 knots behind the passing cold front. /21 A cold front continues to slowly progress across southeast MS and interior southwest AL, generally approaching the I-65 corridor as of 18Z. A slightly difluent flow pattern will be in place across portions of southwest AL and the western FL panhandle through the early to mid afternoon hours ahead of an upper level trough axis extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley region to northwestern portions of TX.
Key Messages: - Winds decreasing into the early afternoon - Slightly cooler today, warmer Wednesday As of 2AM, its a bit windy out there, gusting up to around 30 mph, a bit higher over the Coteau. We will be on the downwind side of a ridge through the end of the period. This will result in cooler temperatures today. However, with the ridge and some WAA Wednesday, temperatures at 850mb will rebound to around 10 to 12 degrees C.
Gusty NW winds will continue as high pressure gradually builds into the region from the W.
Overnight low temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley have a moderate to high chance of falling below freezing over the weekend. The ridge of high pressure is forecast to remain over the Western U.
343 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2023 Low pressure will track through the Great Lakes tonight, with a cold front pushing east across the area. High pressure will then build back into the region for mid week, bringing drier air and near seasonable temperatures.
1123 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 (Today through Wednesday) At 500mb, a low will be pinched-off from its parent trough which will depart to the east through the short term. However, this will not have an impact on south-central Texas weather as the low will sit over Mexico and very dry air will be present above 700mb locally. At the surface, expect strong north/northwesterly flow to continue through the day today as high pressure continues to build into the region, bringing with it cooler and drier air. Wednesday morning lows are currently forecast to range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s, with the coldest temperatures across the Hill County.
105 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2023 It will be slightly warmer today compared to the past few days, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
A cold front is approaching the middle Ohio Valley at the time of this writing, and rain continues to overspread the region. Steady rain will gradually come to an end by this evening across southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky and the lowlands of West Virginia, but showers are expected to continue into tonight across the mountains as winds become westerly behind the cold front. In addition, winds will remain gusty through this evening with occasional gusts over 40 mph in the higher terrain. In the higher terrain, rain may mix with some snow at times, which can yield some minor accumulations late in the day, mainly on grass. During this time, snow or freezing drizzle will be possible within the higher elevations of the northeast mountains, while rain should continue elsewhere.
Winds will generally remain from the NW, as the deep trough remains overhead, before it continues its trek east into tomorrow night. Here, the pressure gradient overhead will more or less enter into a weak zonal flow, as we're kind of placed in "no mans land" between the trough and the ridge. Given the continued cold air advection, lows tonight will range in the low 30s and 40s, before dropping into the 30s area-wide tomorrow night.
1111 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 (Rest of Today) The cold front that brought some much needed rain to the Tennessee Valley overnight and this morning is slowly pushing east of the I-65 corridor.
220 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Breezy but mainly dry conditions will be seen through the evening as the next cold front moves though the area.
As the low pulls away tonight, shower coverage will continue to decrease but some patchy drizzle may linger in the moist low-level cyclonic flow containing low cloud ceiling heights. A period of lake induced rain showers is also possible along the coast from roughly 09Z-15Z Wed as the H8 thermal trough moves through, but these should be on the lighter side given shallow moisture depth and low inversion heights around 4K ft. Dry weather resumes tomorrow afternoon with arrival of sfc ridging and pronounced H8 thermal ridge leaning in from the west during the afternoon.
(Through tonight ) North-northwest flow continues at the surface tonight as high pressure begins to build into the area from the west. Meanwhile, northerly flow aloft develops this evening as a mid level trough originating over the upper midwest dives southward, deepening over MO/AR tonight. Resulting low temperatures tonight will be quite chilly, with northern portions of the area falling into the mid 20s and the remainder of the CWA landing near or slightly below freezing.
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Showers continue over the plateau with the cold front just west of there. The broad trough is still back to the west over Missouri and Arkansas. The main lobe of energy is digging southward and will become a closed upper low this evening and then move across the area on Wednesday. The clouds will begin to clear west to east during the afternoon as the trough pulls eastward. With clearing skies and calm winds Wednesday night, temperatures will be able to drop to around freezing for Thanksgiving morning.
1108 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 (Today through Wednesday) The most recent Weather Prediction Center surface analysis indicates a cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico and completely through the BRO CWFA. Precipitation-wise, an influx of dry air behind the cold front, combined with an initially-zonal mid-level flow that will become more out of the southwest over time, will result in dry weather across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande today and tonight. As closed 500 mb low pressure develops over western Mexico, some precipitation, isolated in nature, may develop over the lower Texas coastal waters on Wednesday, while the inland areas remain dry owing to precipitable water values there struggling to increase.
1119 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 (Today and tonight) One final short wave trough was currently moving overhead which was able to drop some very light rain showers early this morning. More substantial drying of the atmospheric column will spread over the region today after this trough passes. A tight height gradient will continue to exist overhead this morning before the parent upper level low pulls away farther to the east. Surface ridging will then move into the area lessening winds and leading to a cool night.
Discussion: Northerly upper flow exists across the central CONUS this afternoon in between an eastern trough and a western ridge.
151 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2023 Abundant high clouds spilled into the area today that kept temps across the northern zones at bay and cooler than forecast. Otherwise, a dirty upper ridge is in place over the Rockies with a robust chinook arch from central Montana north into Alberta. A backdoor cold front along with an upper disturbance will push a chance of light snow or flurries across the CWA mainly Wednesday evening.
Otherwise, this could be the last 50 degree day for awhile as a cold front will be dropping through the area tomorrow morning and a prolonger period of near or slightly below temps are expected. The Canadian wave phases with a wave in the eastern Pacific forming an elongated trof across the northern Rockies into northern California on Wednesday night.
A couple of these showers moved across the Lower Keys, especially from Boca Chica west to Key West. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. Low pressure is moving northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes with an attendant cold front draped southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Dixie Alley and into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico southeast of New Orleans. From synopsis, strong high pressure remains in place across New England with an extension of this ridge south to southwestward into Florida. Winds will slacken late as a frontal system associated with a low pressure moving into the Great Lakes pushes southeastward towards the Keys.
1155 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front will drop temperatures significantly across the region this afternoon. Lows will be right around the freezing mark for many locations.
110 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2023 Low pressure will track northeast across the central Great Lakes today, before reforming off the New England coast on Wednesday. Air and road surface temperatures have warmed above freezing over N Centre and feel safe to drop the advisory there, but will keep it going for a few more hours from Clearfield (and 1 more hour for Somerset and Cambria) as high elevation roadside instruments still show air temperatures a smidge below freezing despite road surface temperatures above freezing. Additional glazing expected only on the ridges, with no travel disruptions in the valleys. Sub advisory gustiness occurring on the higher ridges of the Laurels with gusts over 30 mph there.
1128 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night) A sharp drop in temperatures along with the development of gusty north winds has accompanied the departure of yesterday's cold front, with most locations now reporting wind gusts of around 20 mph (25-30mph along the coast).
Scattered rain showers and cooler on Wednesday. Discussion: Winds across the higher terrain are beginning to weaken now that the low level jet is lifting north allowing 850 flow to veer toward the southwest. A few gusts up to 50 mph will still be possible before sunset with the high wind warning likely being allowed to expire at 21z. An upper level low will push through the region overnight and into Wednesday with sufficient lift that scattered showers will be possible at times especially after sunrise Wednesday. Otherwise it looks to be a chilly day with highs only in the lower 50's underneath mostly cloudy skies. Discussion: For Wednesday evening, deterministic and HREF shows some light mix precipitation possible across the higher elevations. This is too warm for ice nucleation so only expect possible freezing drizzle/rain.
The low clouds and fog should burn off towards midday with clear skies the rest of the day. The lower ceilings LIFR are anticipated to clean up later today based on the latest satellite imagery showing some burn off. A cold front will push into the coast Wednesday with a low chance of precipitation along the coast. South winds will increase today ahead of a cold front.
The upper low responsible for yesterday's and last night's rain continues to drive northeast into the Great Lakes. Low temperatures tonight will be much cooler than what we saw last night, especially in central and northeast Missouri where clouds will clear earlier in the night. Jaja By Thanksgiving morning, flow aloft will have become zonal behind our current system, and flow at the surface will have turned southwesterly in response to shifting high pressure. Thanksgiving will be the pick of the week before a dry cold frontal passage drags us back into the realm of below average temperatures for the weekend.
As of 10 AM CST, temperatures range from the middle 40s north to the lower 50s south. Clouds wl begin to dcrs fm the west tngt as the main upper lvl trof axis swings off to the east. NW AR wl see sub-freezing low temps tngt.
1112 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Based on dewpoints over the past hours, it appears now that the warm front finally got dragged up by the low and is now located generally along a Jasper to Pell City line. 16 Previous short-term discussion: (Today through Wednesday) So far we remain north of the warm front. As the low moves further northward through the morning and into the afternoon, the front will lift, but we just will not be in the warm sector that long for widespread severe weather. Additional showers may develop overnight across the north and then slide southeast through Wednesday morning in association with the upper low as it swings through.
349 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2023 Significant rainfall will come tonight into Wednesday ahead of a cold front with a few thunderstorms possible.
206 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2023 Large but positively tilted longwave trough from the Great Lakes to W TX expected to move Eward thru Wed leaving tail end upper low over Mexico. Upper energy to lift mainly N of the local area as associated cold front slowly sags thru E Gulf tonight then the FL Peninsula Wed with chance PoPs but fairly light rainfall totals. Drier and cooler conditions for Thanksgiving.
Cooler and drier weather will persist through Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s.
This trough could produce some light rain and snow showers activity, mainly over northern WI into early this evening. Drier air arrives late tonight into Wednesday as ridging builds into the western Great Lakes, bringing dry conditions into Wednesday. Area of clearing between the departing low and the approaching trough will provide a period of mostly clear skies this afternoon and evening, but clouds will push back into the area from northwest to southeast into the evening. Highs on Wednesday will climb to slightly above normal, with most spots topping out between in the low to mid 40s. - A cold front tracks through dry Wednesday night.
(This evening through Wednesday) The low level stratus deck continues to erode this afternoon, with clear skies now across the western half of the area. This will allow temperatures to drop off into the low to mid 30s area wide.
(Rest of Today) The cold front that brought some much needed rain to the Tennessee Valley overnight and this morning is slowly pushing east of the I-65 corridor.
Cool, dry weather again today with an upper ridge shifting eastward over our area. Weak frontal zone off the northwest coast will come in from the northwest Wednesday and gain strength in south-central Idaho Wednesday night and especially Thanksgiving Day, with an upper trough from the north forming a closed low right over south-central Idaho.
With the upper level trough axis positioned to our west, overcast skies will continue overnight. Despite the cloud cover, a drier airmass begins to advect in from the northwest allowing for temperatures tonight to fall into the low to mid 40s, with the coldest temperatures west of I-65.
Mid-level low pressure strengthens as it drops south across the western coast of Mexico through the day Wednesday before approaching the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday night. Temperatures continue to gradually dip this evening into tonight toward the mid 40s across the ranchlands and low to mid 50s across the RGV, rebounding only into the low 60s on Wednesday, before falling back into the mid to upper 40s Wednesday night.
953 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Clouds and winds are decreasing this morning as surface ridging works its way into the area. With this in mind, today may actually be more pleasant than tomorrow given the chance for increased winds tomorrow and incoming strong but dry cold front. -Slightly warmer Wednesday through midday, then reinforcing cold air surges into the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Areas where cloud cover increases faster will see warmer lows, with the opposite being true for areas where cloud cover is slower to set in.
High temperatures will remain in the 40s on Wednesday, but will climb into the lower 50s by Thanksgiving Day. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower to middle 30s, while highs on Wednesday top out in the middle 40s.
Wagner (Issued 320 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023) Today through Wednesday: The low pressure system will continue to eject northeastward, crossing southern Michigan this afternoon. Precipitation is currently falling as light to moderate rain across most of the CWA, but with N to NE winds advecting cool dry air into the the fringes of the low pressure system's precip shield, wet bulb temperatures are forecast to decrease over the next few hours, allowing some snow to mix in with the rain. Tonight's low temps range from 24 to 30 degrees for inland locations, but lakeshore counties may remain at or slightly above freezing. Dry weather and decreasing cloud cover expected Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid 40s.
1255 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Mostly sunny skies dominate the region as ridging takes hold. Winds are also diminishing as planned, with widespread temps in the low to mid 30s ensuing. Clouds and winds are decreasing this morning as surface ridging works its way into the area. With this in mind, today may actually be more pleasant than tomorrow given the chance for increased winds tomorrow and incoming strong but dry cold front. -Slightly warmer Wednesday through midday, then reinforcing cold air surges into the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Areas where cloud cover increases faster will see warmer lows, with the opposite being true for areas where cloud cover is slower to set in.
245 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) The cold front has finally made it though the area with breezy northwest winds in its wake. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is centered over Texas with a weak upper ridge to our west. To the east, the upper trough from the cold front is lingering over the southeastern states. The next low pressure system is also taking place over W. The low already has a stream of moisture moving over the area with south-southwest flow aloft.
14z/8am surface analysis shows a 1008mb low over northwest Indiana with a cold front trailing southward into the Tennessee River Valley. Temperatures will remain nearly steady or rise only a few degrees from current readings in the lower to middle 40s. * Colder temperatures to move in soon after this low pressure system moves off to our east-northeast. However, sprinkles cannot be ruled out through the daytime today since we remain in cyclonic flow as the low center passes off to our east/northeast.
258 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday) Cold front currently moving into far NW GA. The wedge should hold in the far NE until the cold front moves through and scours it out. The cold front will move through the remainder of the CWA overnight. With the low CAPE/high shear environment in place, there is good potential for a QLCS type line to form this afternoon. 500mb trough and mid level low should move through the state tomorrow.