Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Smoke could sneak a little closer to the surface tonight and into early Friday as a backdoor cold front moves it across parts of western Iowa and into far eastern Nebraska. Precipitation chances continue through Saturday as even more moisture pools over the Central Plains, and a low pressure system churns through central Nebraska.
301 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The last of the low lying clouds is slowing moving out and eroding away across the north central and east early this morning as ridging from a parent high over Hudson Bay brings dry and clear conditions over us today. With a localized high pressure developing over Lake Superior today, clockwise flow over the eastern half of the lake is expected to push northerly winds around 10 kts over the eastern half of the U. Given the dry air and WAA associated with the ridging, RHs over the east are expected to dip down into the mid to upper 20 percents.
A cold front will move through area on Friday, with dry conditions expected behind it for this weekend. A stationary will linger across the local area tonight, eventually lifting north of the area as a weak warm front early Friday morning. Highs Friday will be dependent upon convective initiation timing, but thickness tools and NBM generally agree with the mid to upper 80s west of the Bay to the lower 80s Delmarva. Pops should end rather quickly after sunset, then dry for much of this coming weekend, as high pressure settles in from the west. Sat/Sat night looks dry and pleasant, with highs in the low to mid 80s under a partly to mostly sunny sky.
819 PM PDT Thu Jun 15 2023 After a mild Friday, a cold front moves through the region Friday night, with breezy westerly winds picking up again Saturday.
Temperatures trend cooler with overnight lows tonight in the 30s across most of the forecast area, and mainly dry, quiet conditions settle in through the rest of the week. Tonight through early Saturday morning Our forecast area sits under northwesterly changing to northerly flow, reinforcing cooler temps after the passage of a cold front yesterday.
A mid-upper level ridge will move over the region through Friday afternoon before a trailing trough begins to have more influence by the evening hours. This will lead to slightly increased cloud cover and warmer overnight lows, however no associated precipitation is expected through Saturday morning.
Upper ridging is briefly in place over eastern Kansas, making for a warm but quiet afternoon. Farther southwest, a vigorous upper trough for mid June is moving into portions of the Southern Plains. There, from far southwest Kansas down towards northwest Texas, the high shear and high instability environment is creating a potent severe thunderstorm environment. However with upper ridging nearby to our north, expecting any coverage of these storms to remain isolated. Should be another warm day given the presence of this ridge and lack of widespread clouds. Friday night into Saturday, shear will strengthen as ridging moves off to the east allowing the Southwest CONUS trough to approach.
Into the first half of the weekend, the dig of the long wave trof from the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley will result in a wedged pattern for us, between it and upper ridging to our west. The low level flow ultimately shifts back to the north and northeast, and this drives lower dew points back down/into the FA, esp in our northeast. It will be getting warm, too, as the ridge slowly nudges in, helping temperatures warm to nearer 90 thru Saturday. As the ridge and aforementioned low moves further east Saturday night, return flow southerlies reappear.
As has been mentioned for the past several nights, an U/L trough over the southeast U. Deep layer moisture will be increasing as the trough digs south.
Severe weather risk Saturday seems even lower than the low/isolated risk this afternoon, with pockets of heavy rain the primary concern.
357 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Another upper level low will move through the area on Friday, with widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms.
The clouds and cooler air will keep temperatures a little below normal today.
238 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 A weak warm front will linger across the region into this morning.
1111 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 A deepening upper trough will push across Pennsylvania Friday, then become a cut-off low over New England by Saturday.
Initial energy ejecting out of the Rockies trough may help to maintain convection into the morning hours on Saturday.
The longwave, mid- to upper-level trough axis has now shifted just east of the forecast area with subsidence helping to suppress widespread convection across the forecast area on Friday. On Saturday, the longwave trough begins to push off further to the east with less subsidence and storm suppression expected resulting in a northward push of increased PoPs.
cyclonic flow behind the departing upper trough and colder air aloft will likely keep clouds around for much of the area this evening. any early morning clouds look to give way to mostly sunny skies in the morning as the trough continues to push east of the region and ridging builds in from the west. It will be warmer than today (that shouldn't be hard to do!) with highs mainly in the 70s, except a little cooler near Lake Michigan.
Isolated to scattered showers are anticipated to develop with a focus being in the northeastern areas and along the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains.
A deep upper level trough will dig into the Ohio River Valley this morning and flow aloft will become more northwesterly. The better upper dynamics of the deep trough and the stalled front will remain well to our north and south respectively. Majority of the area will have typical mid June lows in the lower to mid 60s, closer to 70 in Augusta area. Saturday and Saturday night: An upper trough over New England is expected to continue to close off as it translates to the northeast. Meanwhile, an upper trough is forecast to eject from the Rockies and begin its trek across the US. While most of the activity should stay south and west, a few showers or storms could make their way into the lower CSRA.
204 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 An upper low pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes will translate eastward, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the North Country this afternoon. The upper low will strengthen over New England tonight into Saturday, bringing seasonably cool temperatures, and a widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall to the North Country for the first half of the weekend.
331 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times today as a cold front slowly crosses the region. Dry weather is expected for the weekend under building high pressure. The low is progged to pull the cold front across the region during the afternoon as it begins to exit the region, with additional shower and thunderstorm development expected. While severe weather is not currently expected, some of the stronger storms could contain small hail with relatively low freezing levels, and a MU CAPE from 500-1000 j/kg. The upper trough is expected to deepen into a closed low across the NE CONUS, and persist through the weekend.
Currently, southwest flow aloft with a S/WV ridge off to our east and a S/WV trough off to our west. Much cooler today behind the cold front with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
This along with abundant low clouds through the morning hours will keep temps a few degrees cooler today. By late Friday another complex of storms is expected to develop across the High plains and then move east, mainly across Kansas.
(Saturday Night through next Friday) Saturday night will be in the low-to-mid 60s with increasing clouds.
For Friday and Saturday, the ridge further strengthens while the gulf pumps abundant moisture into the area.
350 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Radar imagery early this morning shows most, if not all, of the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance and surface cold front staying just north and east of the Jackson CWA this morning. The cold front is on track for passage across the CWA during the mid- to late morning near and north of Interstate 64 and then quickly moving southeast across the remainder of the CWA through the afternoon. Dry and stable conditions with weak northerly winds are expected Saturday under weak high pressure.
Current upper air analysis shows vort energy associated with a deepening trough sinking south across the Great Lakes. At the surface, a backdoor cold front is sinking southwest and is located just north of our cwa border early this morning. High temperatures will only be a few degrees cooler on Saturday though, as the dry airmass will have an easier time heating up. It will actually be warmer in the EVV- Tri state by several degrees.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible again over most of the area, but the highest chances for severe storms and locally heavy rainfall will be inland, south of I-10, where MLCAPE will be maximized between 1500-2000 J/kg and bulk shear near 30 knots.
Upper troughing over the Great Lakes with ridging over Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico, with the local area in northwest flow.
There's a significant wind shift and temperature difference on either side of the boundary, with the highest chances (40 to 60 percent) of showers and thunderstorms focused near the boundary. 850mb temperatures will be near 10C west of the trough, and closer to 15C east. Most of the smoke near the surface will stay east of the trough, with some smoke from the southwestern Canadian wildfires sliding in behind the trough.
1142 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 A cold front dropping southward from the Great Lakes will cause winds to swing around to the northeast and a much cooler airmass to settle into central Illinois tonight. with a few readings dipping into the lower 50s northeast of the I-74 corridor. a cold front is noted pushing south across northern Illinois and should clear the central Illinois forecast area shortly after midnight tonight. In fact, mid/upper level height rises are in play ahead of a strong upper ridge translating slowly east across the Great Plains which should help to keep precip coverage low as we head through the evening. A modest northeasterly breeze will continue behind the front Friday keeping temps near to slightly below normal, but still warm with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
415 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 A weak warm front will linger across the region into this morning.
Mostly fair weather across the Northern Rockies featuring slightly higher-than-normal temperatures today will give way to cooler, rainier, and, depending on your elevation, snowier weather in the coming week. While the Northern Rockies looks relatively dry on satellite imagery this morning, a strong low pressure circulation is spinning over the Gulf of Alaska.
435 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Upper level low pressure will move away through the Maritimes today. A new upper low will approach tonight and cross the area this weekend.
551 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 It will be cooler today, with high temperatures around 80 degrees and light northeast winds.
Low pressure will develop across the region and prevail through the early and middle part of the week. Today: Aloft, the forecast area will remain within cyclonic flow around a sharp trough shifting east of the Great Lakes. At the surface, westerly flow will prevail through most of the day with an upstream trough ahead of a cold front pushing into the Appalachians. Tonight: The upstream cold front will approach the area and begin to drop in from the north late tonight.
Another hot and muggy day is on tap with afternoon highs topping out in the lower 90s with heat index values reaching into the 100-105 range.
934 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times today as a cold front slowly crosses the region. Dry weather is expected for the weekend under building high pressure. The low is progged to pull the cold front across the region during the afternoon as it begins to exit the region, with additional shower and thunderstorm development expected. While severe weather is not currently expected, some of the stronger storms could contain small hail with relatively low freezing levels, and a MU CAPE from 500-1000 j/kg. The upper trough is expected to deepen into a closed low across the NE CONUS, and persist through the weekend.
Not surprising, there's been little change to the expected forecast, and it's getting a little tough to find new ways of describing it! Ridging holds strong over the area, with the center of the ridge shifting from just south of the area to more overhead today into Saturday.
930 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Another upper level low will move through the area on Friday, with widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms.
However, coverage will gradually decrease, with activity ending north to south, as weak mid level ridging works into the area.
632 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Upper level low pressure will move away through the Maritimes today. A new upper low will approach tonight and cross the area this weekend.
A trough remains across a good portion of the western US this morning. The best forcing will remain across the northernmost part of the state and this is where the highest PoPs will reside (40-70%) with decreasing chances as you head south to Seligman-Grand Canyon-Chinle (20-40%) with less than 15% chances as you push further south and towards Flagstaff and the I-40 corridor. As the trough lifts to the north and east this evening, any showers and storms will dissipate and we will start to see a slight shift to our dominant weather pattern of late. Temperatures will moderate and warm closer to normal but this will not last long as the next trough starts to build down later in the weekend.
1025 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times today as a cold front slowly crosses the region. Dry weather is expected for the weekend under building high pressure. Additional development is expected this afternoon into the early evening as upper level low pressure drifts across the region with a surface boundary. The overall lack of shear and tall, skinny CAPE profiles point to a very low risk of severe weather, although sufficient CAPE levels and low freezing levels could lead to some instances of small hail. The upper trough is expected to deepen into a closed low across the NE CONUS, and persist through the weekend.
(Today and tonight) High pressure will remain aloft allowing temperatures to continue soaring well into the triple digits this afternoon. Now for the good news regarding the heat, the Big Country will be cooler today as a result of a cold frontal passage. Expect highs to only be in the low to middle 90s north of I-20.
519 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Storms move out of the area today with drier and cooler conditions to start out the weekend. Current sfc analysis depicts cold front draped across central SD. Upper level trough axis sits over central WY. Unsettled weather continues today as the upper trough moves through the region.
Hazard Discussion: Widespread heavy rainfall is forecast to redevelop across southeast Wyoming and Nebraska panhandle this afternoon as a low pressure system approaches from the west. This slow moving low pressure system expected to create widespread rainfall with slow moving thunderstorms. The next round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to fire this afternoon, as closed low begins to move toward the region and an embedded vorticity lobe moves aloft. The much advertised, "dry" shift begins to occur on Saturday as increasing heights being to move into the region ahead of a weak ridge. There will still be plenty of moisture in the low to mid- levels to initiate some high terrain isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.
545 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times today as a cold front slowly crosses the region. Dry weather is expected for the weekend under building high pressure. The low is progged to pull the cold front across the region during the afternoon as it begins to exit the region, with additional shower and thunderstorm development expected. While severe weather is not currently expected, some of the stronger storms could contain small hail with relatively low freezing levels, and a MU CAPE from 500-1000 j/kg. The upper trough is expected to deepen into a closed low across the NE CONUS, and persist through the weekend.
Tonight, the trough axis will have moved into the forecast area from the west. This activity will mainly be focused over the the high terrain of the central and southwestern Colorado mountains.
The aforementioned smoke will clear out as this trough moves eastward into North Dakota.
(The rest of today ) The upper level low responsible for yesterdays storms is approaching the KS/MO border this morning. A few additional storms may develop across northwest AR this afternoon or along the OK/KS border, closer to the upper level low.
It does appear the greatest threat this afternoon-sunset will be south of Orlando, however bigger questions exist for late evening- overnight from future convective complexes northward as additional energy spills southeastward in the current "troughy" pattern aloft.
In the mid to upper levels, there are two ridges. In between these two ridges was subtle troughing over much of Florida extending southward into Cuba. At the surface, a ridge exists over the western North Atlantic with an extension of this ridge westward over Cuba and the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, ridging over the northwest Bahamas and Straits of Florida will result in light to gentle southwesterly breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters this afternoon through the weekend.
Freshened up PoPs with the latest blended guidance, and otherwise main focus of today is much cooler highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Currently, southwest flow aloft with a S/WV ridge off to our east and a S/WV trough off to our west. Much cooler today behind the cold front with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
630 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 (Today and tonight) High pressure will remain aloft allowing temperatures to continue soaring well into the triple digits this afternoon. Now for the good news regarding the heat, the Big Country will be cooler today as a result of a cold frontal passage. Expect highs to only be in the low to middle 90s north of I-20.
Portions of central Nebraska southward into Kansas stand the highest chances to see rainfall.
638 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Another upper level low will move through the area on Friday, with widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Continued dry conditions and mostly clear skies will help lift high temperatures into the low to mid 80s.
1248 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The remaining portions of the broad trough continue to sweep to the northeast this afternoon, and have taken most of the precipitation along with it. One trailing piece of the trough remains along the WY/ID border currently, and has been able to tap lingering moisture and daytime heating to spark showers along the higher elevations this afternoon.
324 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 High pressure builds over the area tonight from north and will remain in place through the weekend. We'll have broad northerly flow under high pressure and will possibly have another opportunity for smoke from Canadian wildfires to advect southward into the forecast area this weekend.
359 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Quiet weather continues over the Great Lakes this afternoon as a ridge continues to build in. Temperatures seem unbothered by this haze aloft, as most of the area is climbing comfortably into the lower to mid 70s. Capping may also be responsible for the failure of dewpoints to mix out quite as dramatically as expected in the far eastern UP, but RH is still dropping into the lower 30s and even upper 20s in some pockets. Expect mainly clear skies, with some patchy fog not out of the question in the interior-western UP while temperatures fall to lows generally in the lower to mid 40s.
GOES 16 Day Cloud Phase Distinction continues to show high level cirrus clouds streaming through from north to south with some spotty fair weather cumulus clouds in the lower levels. Temperatures throughout the Island Chain have managed to climb into the lower 90s. In the mid to upper levels, two anticyclones are present. In between these two ridges was subtle troughing over much of Florida extending southward into Cuba. At the surface, a ridge exists over the western North Atlantic with an extension of this ridge westward over Cuba and the Straits of Florida. Through the weekend, increasing rain chances are expected as the ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico retreats westward further into Mexico. This will allow for the trough currently over the Southeastern U.
By this evening, thunderstorms are expected to form across portions of the High Plains and push eastward into the overnight period. Across northern Oklahoma (generally along and north of I-40), potential exists for multiple rounds of strong to severe convection, first with convection off the dryline (5-9 PM) followed by organized convection along the advancing cold front (7 PM - 1 AM).
After that, it's primarily a high pressure influence heading into the weekend, with dry warmth resulting in another mid 80s to near 90 degrees day. 50s dew points will be reinforced by northeast winds/flow around the high.
Low pressure will develop across the region and prevail through the early and middle part of the week. This Afternoon: A mid-level trough is positioned along the Eastern Seaboard, putting the local forecast area within the southern periphery of the cyclonic flow. A cold front will slowly approach the region from the north this afternoon. Tonight: The upstream cold front will approach the area and begin to drop in from the north late tonight.
There is a 50 percent probability for lightning in the higher elevations of Glacier National Park, 40 percent in Grangeville, Anaconda to Deer Lodge and a 30 percent probability for Butte Saturday afternoon. As a cold upper level low begins to move onshore Saturday night, it will be accompanied by a 120 knot upper level jet which will provide strong lift for widespread showers and isolated thunder.
Dry weather and seasonable temperature is expected for the weekend under building high pressure. Most of these are currently near and northwest of Pittsburgh, along a weak surface boundary/trough. The overall lack of shear and tall, skinny CAPE profiles point to a very low risk of severe weather, although sufficient CAPE levels and low freezing levels could lead to some instances of hail of up to a half-inch or so. Some lingering stratocumulus and patches of fog are possible in the cooler flow behind the front.
Otherwise, a dry day is expected Saturday as 500 MB ridging to the west nudges into the region.
332 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 (Issued 332 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023) Tonight through Saturday night: The low stratus clouds have scattered out for the most part across the area, with the remaining cumulus to mix out this evening. High pressure will linger into Saturday, before slowly moving east Saturday night, with a 500 mb ridge axis over the region. Highs should be in the lower 80s inland, with 70s near the lake.
Temperatures will remain lower in the low stratus, and given how long they may linger, lowered high temperatures a bit for this afternoon. High pressure will linger over the region tonight into Saturday, bringing more quiet weather with light winds.
1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 It will be cooler today, with high temperatures around 80 degrees and light northeast winds.
347 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The exiting trough continues the slow drift to the east this afternoon with heights expected to rise through today and tonight downstream of ridge axis. This places southeast Michigan under deep northerly flow, which is also ushering in some drier and cooler air to the region. Cloudy morning conditions will continue to erode into the evening as the high pressure builds south and drier air takes hold. Amplified ridge over the plains gradually builds across the western Great Lakes and then Central Great Lakes throughout the weekend bringing a slight warming trend.