Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the surface, lee-side troughing will set up across western Kansas and the Panhandle, leading to increasing southwest winds this afternoon. This wind direction favors downsloping, which will combine with an already warm airmass (16-17 deg C at 850mb), to push high temperatures into the low 80s this afternoon. Resulting low temperatures should only fall into the low 50s tonight.
1219 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 Dry conditions will prevail through late Wednesday under high pressure.
1040 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2023 KEY MESSAGES 1) Overnight fog chances continue with expansion again likely tonight into Tuesday morning 2) Minor precipitation chance later Tuesday across Hwy 14 corridor into SW Minnesota 3) Breezy mid week with patchy blowing and drifting snow where loose snowpack exists 4) Warming trend into weekend will push temperatures toward or above the freezing mark.
906 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Yet another unseasonably warm January day is underway, with light southwesterly winds and a building midlevel ridge paving the way for highs to top out in the upper 60s to middle 70s for most. By Tuesday afternoon, the low-level thermal ridge will extend northeastward across the region coincident with increasing westerly downslope flow and continued rising heights.
103 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2023 Overview: An upper level ridge. Meanwhile, a progressive upper level trough. Tuesday: Expect conditions similar to today, albeit several degrees warmer. Tuesday night: Expect increasing upper level cloud cover -- as flow aloft /atop the Rockies/ backs to the southwest in advance of the aforementioned upper wave -- with overnight lows relatively warmer than previous nights (~20-30F).
Due to how dry the low-levels are, most may be virga, but occasional spots may see it reach the surface. For today, the freezing rain potential has decreased. Essentially, there's a very small chance (~15%) for precipitation to occur this morning from Billings through Miles City, and if it does occur, only about a 20% chance of it occurring as freezing rain. That chance of freezing rain increases for lower valleys that would see cooler surface temperatures.
334 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 Dry conditions will prevail through late Wednesday under high pressure.
Still expect freezing/near freezing temperatures across much of the area, with mid 30s elsewhere. Cooler northerly flow at the surface will continue through the day today, but highs will remain right at normal for this time of the year. The high clouds could tamper overnight lows just a bit, but we should still be able to drop into the 30s areawide. Freezing temperatures will be likely across far northern counties and valley locations across east and northeast counties by daybreak on Tuesday.
Otherwise the forecast was generally in good shape, except for a few localized observations where the calm winds and microclimate are causing cooler temperatures. Even with the higher winds forecast, the area of elevated fire weather did not change significantly and continue to extend near and west of a Gage- Elk City- Altus- Frederick- Wichita Falls line where the afternoon relative humidity will be the lowest. Low amplitude ridging will then build into the area on Tuesday, with downslope flow helping warm temperatures 15-20+ degrees above average for highs, ranging from the mid 60s northeast to upper 70s/near 80 southwest.
345 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 High pressure settles overhead before sliding off the Southeast Coast States and offshore Wed thru Thu. A strong cold front accompanied with scattered showers and possibly a rumble of thunder will push across the area Thu night into Fri. Cold high pressure will follow and build in for the weekend. For highs today leaned toward the cooler numbers based on yesterday's performance but still expect 57 to perhaps 62 in places. Continued weak WAA should see us getting into the 60s with high pressure shifting offshore late Wednesday putting us in onshore flow ahead of a cold front.
207 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 High pressure will build across and offshore the Carolinas and mid Atlantic through Wednesday. This moisture starved trough will push across central NC today. Highs are expected to reach the lower 50s north ranging into the mid to upper 50s elsewhere.
Cooler drier air will advect across the region with dew points dropping into the 40s.
An upper level trough currently over the Northern Plains will exit to the east this evening, with ridging building in late tonight through Tuesday morning. At the surface, broad weak low pressure will be over the central part of the country tonight. Tuesday looks to be quiet as weak high pressure tracks across the area, ahead of another approaching area of low pressure. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the lower 20s across west central Minnesota, to the mid 30s across south central South Dakota. The period begins on Wednesday with northwesterly flow aloft and a Canadian high pressure building into the region.
This in the form of a low pressure system moving through northern Utah into southeast Idaho. However, we are also seeing indications of an inverted trough extending northwestward from the low which may have some descent accumulations with it as well. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding this inverted trough. Behind this trough, expect gusty winds with gusts to 25 mph possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Gusty winds will decrease this evening as the cold front pushes through. Areas of fog will develop tonight in the lower valleys as breaks in the clouds develop. Most areas will see a break in precipitation Tuesday morning before the next round associated with a trough moves up from the south Tuesday afternoon and evening. Snow amounts in the mountains at this time do not appear high enough for an advisory, but models differ on precipitation amounts as the trough moves north. An upper ridge will build overhead on Wednesday and bring a brief drying trend before the next weak system brings another chance of rain and snow to the area Wednesday night.
Snow and a little bit of freezing rain last night left the boundary layer saturated this morning. Today the predominant ridge over the region tries to recover but is undercut by another low pressure system moving across southern Idaho. So the low pressure system and the ridge will work opposite of each other with the end result being increasing clouds and light snow showers across central Idaho and Lemhi county today. Wednesday the ridge reasserts itself over the region while another deep trough develops off the Pacific Northwest coast. With the ridge axis to our east, roughly along the Continental Divide, that will set up moist southwest flow out of the trough and into Idaho. Wednesday will be dry across the region, but with valley temperatures near freezing some snow melt may add moisture to the valleys under stable conditions causing more fog.
1027 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2023 20z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into the NE panhandle. Upper trough affecting the west coast will be our main weather maker early in the week. Few gusts around 45kts later tonight over northeastern WY spreads into the higher Black Hills early Tuesday morning. Wednesday, main trough zips into the central plains. Best forcing/moisture south of the CWA, but lift over advancing cold front will promote modest chances for light snow across the southwest third of the CWA. Temperatures will be 5-10F cooler than Tuesday.
The sprawling high pressure has finally shifted off to the southeast of the region, but the light winds remain in place. The combination of light/variable winds and ample surface moisture from the snow pack will result in another night of patchy dense fog/freezing fog development by early Tuesday morning. This melts snow and ice crystals as it falls through the warmer layer just above the surface. Sub-freezing surface temperatures will cause liquid rain to freeze on contact and hence freezing rain. The best chance for freezing rain appears to be across portions of south central Minnesota and western Wisconsin (along and south of I-94). There is still some uncertainty with how far north the freezing rain threat will be, but a light glaze of ice is possible by Wednesday morning.
Low level 925mb-850mb will be quite veered, thus any stratus and/or fog will likely be contained across the Lower Brazos/Trinity River Valleys right before dawn Tuesday. Increasing mid-level west/southwest flow ahead of an approaching strong upper trough will bring a very warm airmass across our region. As this system moves across the central/southern Plains, a surface cold front will swipe North and Central Texas Wednesday night with breezy west-then-northwest winds behind it. Slightly cooler air will follow behind this system.
High pressure builds in across the eastern CONUS today with mid-level ridging across South Florida. Overnight lows will be in the low 50s near the lake, with mid to upper 50s elsewhere, except near 60 closer to the Atlantic coast.
1120 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2023 Midevening GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper level trough and associated high clouds lifting east of the Midsouth. At the surface, a 1022mb pressure ridge was centered over south MS. Further removed from the ridge center, southwesterly winds of 5 to 15 mph had developed over AR. Southwesterly winds will develop east of the MS River overnight, as the surface pressure ridge center moves east to the FL panhandle.
953 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2023 Midevening GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper level trough and associated high clouds lifting east of the Midsouth. At the surface, a 1022mb pressure ridge was centered over south MS. Further removed from the ridge center, southwesterly winds of 5 to 15 mph had developed over AR. Southwesterly winds will develop east of the MS River overnight, as the surface pressure ridge center moves east to the FL panhandle.
Currently - High pressure system stretching from the mid Atlantic states to the western Gulf of Mexico is producing gentle breezes ranging broadly out of the north. This evenings sounding indicated well below normal precipitable water with considerable dry air through the lower levels. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridge will skip slightly southeastward through the overnight period. The continued modest northerly flow will result in continued near normal temps with lows in the mid to upper 60s and dew points remaining broadly in the lower 60s. A ridge across the southeastern United States and western Gulf of Mexico will maintain gentle to moderate north to northeasterly breezes through the overnight period.
919 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2023 Overview: An upper level ridge. Meanwhile, a progressive upper level trough. Tuesday: Expect conditions similar to today, albeit several degrees warmer. Tuesday night: Expect increasing upper level cloud cover -- as flow aloft /atop the Rockies/ backs to the southwest in advance of the aforementioned upper wave -- with overnight lows relatively warmer than previous nights (~20-30F).
1248 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 Dry high pressure will remain over the region through Wednesday.
An approaching trough will graze the northern portion of the state and bring gusty winds, chances for valley rain and mountain snow and cooler temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday.
1049 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) High pressure influences will keep mid state dry through Tuesday night. But these high pressure influences will slowly shift eastward as this short term time period progresses, allowing for temperatures to warm. Lows tonight will be around freezing, upper 20s to lower 30s Cumberland Plateau Region, a few degrees actually above seasonal normal values.
There are also pockets of freezing drizzle across the region. We have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the North Shore primarily concerned with ice accumulations from persistent freezing drizzle. Here at the office we have observed freezing drizzle and web cameras within the Twin Ports highlight the same as well. With the best forcing being in the lower levels of the atmosphere it may be difficult for our radar beam to pick up on these echoes today. With no ice crystal development supercooled water will result in freezing drizzle. The consistent flow could lead to some long duration freezing drizzle and ice accumulations over a tenth of an inch.
An upper trough will move east across the area this morning, and this feature has been producing high cloudiness. Once this trough pushes east this afternoon, the high clouds will move east as well, yielding increasing sunshine from northwest to southeast.
427 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2023 Precipitation lingers along The Rocky Mountain Front and across southwest Montana, today; otherwise, expect a generally dry day, with low elevation highs ranging from the low 30s to the low 40s.
812 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 High pressure over the Florida Peninsula will move eastward into the Atlantic waters today as a weak cold front over North Florida moves southward. With the dew points remaining i the 40s to 50s over South Florida today and the warmer temperatures, the relative humidity over the region will fall into the lower to mid 30s over most areas, except lower to mid 40s over the metro areas. High pressure builds in across the eastern CONUS today with mid-level ridging across South Florida. Overnight lows will be in the low 50s near the lake, with mid to upper 50s elsewhere, except near 60 closer to the Atlantic coast.
635 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 High pressure will build across and offshore the Carolinas and mid Atlantic through Wednesday. This moisture starved trough will push across central NC today. Highs are expected to reach the lower 50s north ranging into the mid to upper 50s elsewhere.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Weak upper ridge extending up from Mexico today with near zonal flow across the southern tier of states. Next upper trough arrives on the West Coast today and quickly progresses east crossing the Great Basin tonight and the Rockies on Wednesday as it develops a closed low. Upper low passing by to the north Wednesday will result in windy conditions across SE NM and W TX.
For tomorrow, slightly warmer than NBM/MOS daytime temperatures are still on order given the forecasts of SW winds at the lower and mid levels. The passage of a well-defined low at the mid/upper levels across the Southern Plains will drag a cold front through the state tomorrow night.
Winds are expected to remain light and often variable through the day today before an associated cold frontal boundary passes through from north to south tonight. This will result in steady, yet light northwest winds that will begin to filter in a little cooler air.
(Now through Wednesday) The next 36 hours at a glance: Dense fog this morning, warm temperatures this afternoon, patchy fog overnight tonight, then breezy to windy southerly winds on Wendesday and even warmer temperatures. Mid level ridging and drier air will move in from the west today, helping to clear skies by the afternoon, bringing lots of sunshine and warmer temperatures than we saw yesterday. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s across most of the area.
A thermal ridge will also develop and expand eastward allowing temperatures to warm a few degrees above yesterday's values reaching nearly 20 degrees above normal.
Brief high pressure builds in over the region on Wednesday bringing much drier conditions to the CWA, although portions of northern NV could see a snow flurry at times, with no expected impacts.
This feature will then strengthen into a closed low tonight over the 4 corners region then over the Central Rockies tomorrow. Towards the surface, a weak trough of low pressure will move through the area today shifting winds from a southerly direction this morning to a westerly direction this afternoon. An area of low pressure will develop across eastern Colorado by tomorrow morning then slide across southwest Kansas as the day progresses. Southerly winds are expected ahead of this area of low pressure with northwest winds behind this feature.
756 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 Dry conditions will prevail through late Wednesday under high pressure.
The system will bring a cold front through the area this morning. There will be enough moisture with this system for a chance of a mix of light rain, freezing rain and light snow depending on the temperatures at the surface and aloft when the precipitation occurs. The front will partially mix out the low level inversion across the northern half of the forecast area that have kept temperatures in places like Glasgow, Whitewater, Scobey and Wolf Point colder than the rest of the region the last few days.
858 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 High pressure will build across and offshore the Carolinas and mid Atlantic through Wednesday. At the surface, weak high pressure will be in place over eastern NC today. The high will shift north into the southern Mid-Atlantic tonight, with a light flow today becoming east- northeast tomorrow morning.
303 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023 A weak area of low presssure was located over western Wisconsin with a trailing cold front down into eastern Iowa.
Precipitation lingers along The Rocky Mountain Front and across southwest Montana, today; otherwise, expect a generally dry day, with low elevation highs ranging from the low 30s to the low 40s.
551 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2023 Precipitation lingers along The Rocky Mountain Front and across southwest Montana, today; otherwise, expect a generally dry day, with low elevation highs ranging from the low 30s to the low 40s.
532 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Weak upper ridge extending up from Mexico today with near zonal flow across the southern tier of states. Next upper trough arrives on the West Coast today and quickly progresses east crossing the Great Basin tonight and the Rockies on Wednesday as it develops a closed low. Upper low passing by to the north Wednesday will result in windy conditions across SE NM and W TX.
snow levels are fairly high with rain falling over the lower snow free valleys and even being reported in Telluride where temperatures have risen into the mid 30s. Dendritic layers look to really dry out this afternoon as a fast transitory ridge moves through with subsidence aloft. orographic flow is likely to keep some light snow going over the higher peaks with moisture arriving in force again after sunset. Cold air will rebuild in these areas overnight as skies clear with inversions returning as WAA and ridging bring in a big change for the remainder of the week.
We will have another much warmer than average day today with variable high clouds. A passing weather system will result in a cooler Wednesday afternoon with a shower or two possible over the White Mountains.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms, along with gusty winds, will spread across the area today as another low pressure system approaches the region. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring closer to the associated mid and upper level low over our coastal waters. 12-18" of snow is expected at Scott Mountain Pass through late tonight with locally higher amounts in the highest elevations. Winds are presently increasing across the area, with the highest speeds over the ridgetops. Expect winds to continue to increase in the lower levels and along the coastal headlands.
628 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 High pressure settles overhead before sliding off the Southeast Coast States and offshore Wed thru Thu. A strong cold front accompanied with scattered showers and possibly a rumble of thunder will push across the area Thu night into Fri. Cold high pressure will follow and build in for the weekend. For highs today leaned toward the cooler numbers based on yesterday's performance but still expect 57 to perhaps 62 in places. Continued weak WAA should see us getting into the 60s with high pressure shifting offshore late Wednesday putting us in onshore flow ahead of a cold front.
535 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023 (Now through Wednesday) The next 36 hours at a glance: Dense fog this morning, warm temperatures this afternoon, patchy fog overnight tonight, then breezy to windy southerly winds on Wendesday and even warmer temperatures. Mid level ridging and drier air will move in from the west today, helping to clear skies by the afternoon, bringing lots of sunshine and warmer temperatures than we saw yesterday. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s across most of the area.
335 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023 Key Messages in short term: -A lead short wave across the Alberta will move east and drop a cold front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight. A lead short wave across the Alberta will move east and drop a cold front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight. These models will drift the cold front through wrn Nebraska and then lift it north Wednesday. This forecast is cooler than the guidance blend but slightly warmer than the RAP and HRRR models. The cold front tonight will lower h850mb temperatures to near OC Wednesday.
A weak area of low presssure was located over western Wisconsin with a trailing cold front down into eastern Iowa.
This combined with deep layer ridging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula will result in near nil rain chances through midweek. This feature will quickly move northeast into the Great Lakes region with a trailing strong cold front.
Key Messages in short term: -A lead short wave across the Alberta will move east and drop a cold front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight. A lead short wave across the Alberta will move east and drop a cold front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight. These models will drift the cold front through wrn Nebraska and then lift it north Wednesday. This forecast is cooler than the guidance blend but slightly warmer than the RAP and HRRR models. The cold front tonight will lower h850mb temperatures to near OC Wednesday.
510 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023 (Today and tonight) Low amplitude ridging embedded within zonal flow will remain over the Southern Plains as the next stronger trough moves into the Desert Southwest. Downslope flow will support warmer temperatures today ranging from 15-20 degrees warmer than average for this time of year. Winds will relax some this evening, and temperatures will get down into the low 40s in most places.
1246 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 Dry conditions will prevail through late Wednesday under high pressure.
135 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2023 Over the next several day, the only chance for any precipitation will be during the day Wednesday, and that will be limited to the higher terrain. Amounts do not look especially high, only around a tenth of an inch in total of liquid equivalent, and an inch or two of snow in the high mountains. Temperatures will continue to be very mild through the remainder of the workweek, as ridging continues to dominate the northern Rockies weather. Expecting highs to be in the upper 30 to near 40 for Wednesday, with the moisture associated with that low cutting under the low bringing more cloud cover to the area.
314 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 Quiescent conditions continue for the rest of today as the area remains under the influence of retreating high pressure. Latest surface analysis shows an occluded low over the Badger State and another nascent area of low pressure over the OK/KS border. Cloud deck will lower by Wednesday morning as southerly low level flow introduces weak theta-e ridging and saturated profiles below 800mb. Isentropic ascent ahead of the aforementioned warm front will likely produce drizzle for much of the day. Thick low clouds will temper diurnal temperature ranges as mild morning mins in the low to mid 50s limp into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
(The rest of this afternoon ) Very warm afternoon with expanding thermal ridge overhead, and temperatures are running a good 15-20 degrees above normal. By late in the day, low level moisture will begin to creep into southeast OK and eventually northwest AR ahead of the approaching strong cold front. Deepest moisture will be pushed well to the east, but scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are still expected to develop after 00z with modest moisture increase and steepening lapse rates with the approaching upper low.