Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Also based on radar return and a few reports, added a mention of patchy freezing drizzle to the northeast this morning. May see a little light snow linger over east central South Dakota through mid morning or so, then high pressure will settle in over the central part of the country, and will remain the dominant feature over the area through the day Friday. High temperatures today will range from the lower 20s across west central Minnesota and northeastern South Dakota, to the upper 20s to lower 30s west of the Missouri River. Highs on Friday will be mainly in the 20s, with a few locations across south central South Dakota possibly reaching the lower 30s.
508 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper low and jet max partly responsible for yesterday's wind event has continued to move off to the north and east.
Rain will continue to taper to showers tonight in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Drier conditions are expected Thursday and Friday as upper level ridging builds into the region.
628 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 Aviation - Ongoing Mixed Precipitation Through This Morning Current surface obs (as of 2:30AM) show temperatures still above freezing for most of the area, but areas up near Clare, Osceola, Mecosta and Isabella Counties are beginning to drop a little closer to freezing. A mixture of p-types is still expected across the advisory area with sleet expected to be more prevalent than freezing rain. - Lingering Snow into Friday Morning The main area of low pressure will move eastwards this afternoon and evening with colder air wrapping into the state from the northwest. 850mb temps will fall into the -5 to -10C range while a mid-level vort max slides down the backside of the departing closed low.
330 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Freezing fog across NE Montana including the Milk, Missouri, and Yellowstone River valleys will persist through the morning before burning off by the afternoon.
431 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2023 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low from yesterday moving across the Central Plains. Behind the closed low light snow and blowing snow was occurring. A short wave ridge was moving through the Great Basin behind the closed low. Today clouds will clear as the short wave ridge moves over the Plains. Westerly winds should be light as the short wave ridge moves through. The closed low associated with this storm system will track further south than the last one did, causing the higher snow amounts to be south of Highway 40. Model probability is on the high side for snow amounts to exceed five inches in the watch area.
351 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2023 08z surface analysis had low over northwest MO and another over north central MT with a trough connecting the two. Water vapour loop depicted upper low over southeast NE with leftover deformation zone snows tapering off for south-central SD. A weaker upper low noted over southeast SK. Today/tonight, both upper lows shift east.
114 AM PST Thu Jan 19 2023 A small trough will bring minor precipitation and wind into the San Joaquin Valley. Afterwards, a ridge pattern off the coast will bring freezing temperatures, windy conditions, and possible fog into the valley through the weekend. GEFS and EPS guidance show a minor trough moving into our county warning area, bringing precipitation and wind into the area through late tonight. After this trough moves out of the area, a ridge will settle off the coast of California and bring cooler than seasonal temperatures as well as some gusty winds through the weekend. Model guidance favors cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s during the day.
The upper trough that brought the cold front through the region yesterday is rapidly shifting east. Showers taper off quickly today as a cold air mass moves in northerly flow as an upper ridge builds in behind the exiting upper low. 850 mb temperatures of -4 to -6 C moves over the region bringing very high low level lapse rates, but with the upper ridge building in from the west a strong subsidence inversion above 850 mb, and the resulting dry layer, vertical development will be severely inhibited. The upper ridge continues to build in, with a thermal trough deepening along the coast. This will bring weak offshore flow that will scour off further moisture at the ridge levels brining clearing and allowing valley temperatures to drop rapidly tonight.
512 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Showers will trickle out in southeast Mississippi this morning as a longwave trough ejects out of the Lower Mississippi River Valley to the northeast. Behind it, a cold frontal boundary will move in, bringing drier and cooler air into the region today. Highs will range from the upper 50s in the northwest, to the low 70s in the far southeast.
259 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2023 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low from yesterday moving across the Central Plains. Behind the closed low light snow and blowing snow was occurring. A short wave ridge was moving through the Great Basin behind the closed low. Today clouds will clear as the short wave ridge moves over the Plains. Westerly winds should be light as the short wave ridge moves through. The closed low associated with this storm system will track further south than the last one did, causing the higher snow amounts to be south of Highway 40. Model probability is on the high side for snow amounts to exceed five inches in the watch area.
Warmer temperatures are slowly working their way north and will mitigate icing as the afternoon wears on. - Ongoing Mixed Precipitation Through This Morning Current surface obs (as of 2:30AM) show temperatures still above freezing for most of the area, but areas up near Clare, Osceola, Mecosta and Isabella Counties are beginning to drop a little closer to freezing. A mixture of p-types is still expected across the advisory area with sleet expected to be more prevalent than freezing rain. - Lingering Snow into Friday Morning The main area of low pressure will move eastwards this afternoon and evening with colder air wrapping into the state from the northwest. 850mb temps will fall into the -5 to -10C range while a mid-level vort max slides down the backside of the departing closed low.
Considering the cold temperatures in the South Platte Valley and the lack of winds, the high temperature will be lower than originally expected today. The highs were lowered 3 to 4 degrees around Greeley.
(Rest of today through Friday) High pressure persists over South Florida through the short term period continuing the streak of fair weather. Winds are gradually turning more south-southwest this afternoon and evening as high pressure shifts eastward and a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north. Tonight, expect low temperatures to be slightly warmer with low to mid 60s expected area-wide. Highs on Friday are expected to reach the mid-80s, with slightly cooler temps near the coasts.
Caution while traveling is advised today through tonight; especially with the expected refreezing conditions during the overnight hours.
Thankfully, an area of high pressure has settled in across much of central Texas today. This area of high pressure will move eastward this evening and overnight, allowing light winds to shift out of the southeast tonight. Meanwhile, a developing trough will dig southward through the Four Corners region overnight into tomorrow morning. Clouds will begin to clear out from west to east by midday and with a slightly warmer airmass moving in, high temperatures should reach the mid 60s.
(This evening through Friday) We'll see quiet weather for the remainder of today and tonight as a progressive upper-ridge, currently overhead, shifts northeast into the Central Plains. A little cooler into the upper teens/low 20s in our northwest zones where less cloud cover and lighter winds will allow for more radiational cooling. Surface pressure falls across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle out ahead of the upper low tomorrow will result in increasing southeasterly surface winds across our entire CWA tomorrow afternoon out ahead of a cold front that will move across the NM/TX state line around sunset. Breezy winds will approach 20kts sustained at times otherwise, little to no impacts are expected out ahead of the advancing cold front.
12Z guidance shows good continuity with recent runs, showing a cold front crossing the region between 23Z and 04Z. Cold advection behind the front will maintain strong winds behind the front, with occasional gusts to 40mph possible in the lowlands, and 50mph gusts possible for the ridges. Post frontal rain will gradually transition to snow as temperatures fall near freezing overnight. Gusts of up to 40mph for the lowlands, and up to 50mph in the ridges are possible in the morning in a strong pressure gradient and borderline unstable conditions between the surface and 850mb. The wind advisory will continue until noon for the ridges accordingly. The surface pressure gradient will relax as the low fades and the coastal low pulls northeast into the Atlantic. One inch or grater is possible in the ridges, where surface temperature will be lower.
217 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 Low pressure will drag a cold front across central Pennsylvania tonight accompanied by gusty winds and colder conditions.
1110 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 (Today and tonight) Winds have diminished across the area this morning in the wake of a cold front that has shifted southeast through the region. Cloud cover will stick with us overnight which will help keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer than this morning.
1103 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper low and jet max partly responsible for yesterday's wind event has continued to move off to the north and east.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to be cooler with highs in the 50s and 60s as high clouds keep temperatures a bit depressed. Tonight is not expected to be quite as cold as this morning with the majority of locations remaining above the freezing mark. Friday sees even warmer tempertures during the afternoon with weak ridging and clearing skies across the region. Temperatures should top out in the mid 60s to perhaps the low 70s for many. This ushers in cooler air across western portions of the area who see low temperatures near to below freezing. Low clouds keep eastern portions of the area milder with temperatures remaining above freezing and even into the low 40s for some.
-Enriquez PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Freezing fog across NE Montana including the Milk, Missouri, and Yellowstone River valleys will persist through the morning before burning off by the afternoon.
205 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 A strong cold front has finished clearing the region. Drier and cooler air is moving in on these winds and temperatures will likely fall at or below freezing across the entire region tonight.
(This afternoon through Friday) An upper level trough will continue swinging through the southeast US with a weak mid level jet moving through the trough north of our area. Winds will be westerly through the afternoon and transition to a northwesterly direction this evening as the trough shifts east. High temperatures today will be in the lower 60s in the northwest to the mid 70s in the southeast. Friday high temperatures will be in the low 50s to the low 60s.
Nonetheless, with a decent snowpack still in place, only have highs rising into the low to mid 20s again.
220 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 (This afternoon through Friday) Drier air has started to filter into the area this afternoon as the surface cold front continues to trek across NW GA. A weak reinforcing cold front will push through the region overnight which will keep winds elevated during that time.
Expect the lake enhanced/upslope snow to quickly diminish over the higher terrain of Marquette County late tonight into early Fri morning with impressive mid-level drying/subsidence ahead of advancing mid- level ridge from northern Ontario and the Northern Plains as noted on model fcst soundings.
243 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 The latest sfc analysis was indicating large occluded low pressure center acrs central LK MI, with tightening west flank cyclonic pressure gradient driving increasing west to northwest sfc winds and gusts over 30 MPH. The closed upper low was seen on WV imagery over the WI/IL border, but still close enough to keep producing sctrd snow showers or R/S mix going in the east thru late afternoon to early evening. Also may have to keep some patchy freezing drizzle in mind with any loss of ice nuclei aloft while lift persists. A chance for a few flurries in the east, but over all a mainly dry day with short wave ridging sliding acrs the region. Chilly highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, and Friday night lows in the low 20s to teens.
222 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Gusty west to northwest winds behind a cold front will dominate the region tonight.
The sunny skies should allow temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 60s.
1137 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Gusts have overachieved along a band behind the passing cold front, so have issued a wind advisory for much of the area through late this afternoon. Nearly vertically stacked low pressure over northern Missouri this morning will track northeast into the Great Lakes region later today. A few showers also cannot be ruled out across our Wabash Valley communities in southeast Illinois and southwest Indiana as a lobe of energy pivots south of the upper low, but better chances should remain just north of the forecast area.
1051 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 (Today and tonight) A pleasant (seasonable) weather day, with nil impact, is expected across the region as high pressure establishes. Northwest winds may remain somewhat breezy through about 1-3 PM, especially across north/northeast Oklahoma, owing to a deepening surface cyclone (isallobaric response) across the western Great Lakes. Temperatures in the low-20s across northern Oklahoma to upper-30s across the Red River Valley are forecast.
1252 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 Low pressure will track across the Upper Great Lakes and bring rain to the entire state today. Some high elevation freezing rain is likely, mainly north of I-80. Gusty winds are expected behind the cold front slated to pass through during the first half of the night.
234 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 A mid/upper-level trough over the central Plains will continue to shift northeast through Friday, helping to flatten the ridge over the southeast. At the surface, a weak cold front will slowly move over the peninsula tonight into Friday, bringing a chance for a few showers.
1246 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2023 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low from yesterday moving across the Central Plains. Behind the closed low light snow and blowing snow was occurring. A short wave ridge was moving through the Great Basin behind the closed low. Today clouds will clear as the short wave ridge moves over the Plains. Westerly winds should be light as the short wave ridge moves through. The closed low associated with this storm system will track further south than the last one did, causing the higher snow amounts to be south of Highway 40. Model probability is on the high side for snow amounts to exceed five inches in the watch area.
Temperatures across the Keys ranged from the mid to upper 70s with 80 degrees here already in the office backyard at 1030 am which is much warmer than previous days already at this time. When looking at precipitable water using the MIMIC TPW website, we notice a tongue of moisture moving from east to west and the northwest towards the Yucatan on the southern side of the mean layer ridge this morning. Therefore, mean layer ridging will remain dominant through the afternoon hours leaving the Florida Keys with a mostly sunny sky, high temperatures near 80 degrees, east to southeast winds 10 to 15 mph, and nil rain chances.
1020 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 (Issued 1020 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023) Areas of drizzle and light snow will remain possible throughout the day as the low slowly moves over the area. Some freezing rain is mixing in within a narrow corridor between these two areas, though it seems to be fairly transient, limiting ice accretions. By 4 AM, the steadier precipitation should be limited to Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, and northern Washington and Ozaukee Counties, with just light drizzle/freezing drizzle and snow flurries elsewhere. Temperatures in most locations will be just above freezing, so freezing drizzle will be very limited. Could see a bit more freezing drizzle tonight mixing in with occasional snow showers, before drier air builds into the area from the northwest, ending the precip threat.
1257 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the central plains embedded in a deep trough. This low and trough head east into the upper Great Lakes by 00z Fri. Expect the lake enhanced/upslope snow to quickly diminish over the higher terrain of Marquette County late tonight into early Fri morning with impressive mid-level drying/subsidence ahead of advancing mid- level ridge from northern Ontario and the Northern Plains as noted on model fcst soundings.
312 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 Low pressure tracking to the Great Lakes will provide an enhanced threat for severe thunderstorms into this evening. Colder and windy conditions along with a chance for snow showers will follow the low tonight into Friday.
(18Z TAFS) As a cold front continues to slide east of the area this afternoon, showers and cloud cover are diminishing. Anticipating highs to top out in the lower to mid 70s later this afternoon. This is also due in part to weak ridging building over the Mississippi Valley during this time. Lastly, the HIGH RISK of rip currents will persist through at least this weekend.
The latest in a series of upper level trofs is pushing through Idaho tonight.
233 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 (Issued 233 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023) Tonight through Friday night: Rain and snow showers are moving in from the south as a slug of 700mb moisture and 500mb positive vorticiy advection move in with the low. Northwest winds are expected to pick up overnight as the low departs which may help dry some surfaces but any wet untreated surfaces could freeze with temperatures dropping into the 20s overnight. High pressure will gradually move in Friday into Friday night with northwest winds becoming lighter as the pressure gradient weakens. Unfortunately mostly cloudy skies remain thanks to the slow moving low pressure system.
A beautiful afternoon is ongoing across the Florida Keys with temperatures mostly in the lower 80s. The cooler spot was across the Upper Keys where the warmest temperature observed so far was 78 degrees. GOES 16 Day Cloud Distinction shows a mostly sunny sky this afternoon with the rope cloud from earlier associated with the Cuban land breeze dissipating south of the Lower Keys. Mean layer ridging remains dominant across the area providing for the nice afternoon and warmest temperatures the Keys have seen since last week.
1010 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2023 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low from yesterday moving across the Central Plains. Behind the closed low light snow and blowing snow was occurring. A short wave ridge was moving through the Great Basin behind the closed low. Today clouds will clear as the short wave ridge moves over the Plains. Westerly winds should be light as the short wave ridge moves through. The closed low associated with this storm system will track further south than the last one did, causing the higher snow amounts to be south of Highway 40. Model probability is on the high side for snow amounts to exceed five inches in the watch area.
(This evening through Friday Night) In the brief respite between active weather patterns, ridging aloft over the southern Plains will extend into the ArkLaTex, and sustained 500 mb winds will be southwesterly, becoming zonal, while northerly surface winds reinforce cool air advection, dropping temperatures across the Four State Region to lows slightly cooler than this morning's by daybreak Friday, settling in the lower 40s south to just above the freezing mark across southwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the next weathermaker will be organizing over the Great Basin, a pronounced trough plunging south over the Rockies while forming a closed low. This low looks to remain intact as the trough shifts eastward, pushing into west Texas by Friday night.
Upper level ridge is over the area early today bringing clear skies for central and eastern zones.
Latest MSAS analysis and WPC sfc analysis places the sfc cold front across our far NW counties. (Today through Friday) A cold front will move through the CWA today. Gusty winds will be possible ahead of and behind the cold front today. The highest gusts will be likely at elevations above 2000 feet, with values approaching 35 mph. High pressure and dry conditions are expected tonight and tomorrow.
Expect winds to continue to weaken in these areas through the day as upper disturbance moves south of the area and warmer temperatures mix out the low level inversion that is sandwiching these stronger winds. Will see some increased cloud cover for central and eventually eastern zones through the day, but precipitation potential looks to be mainly in the higher terrain late afternoon into this evening. Similar conditions can be expected for Friday, with temperatures a touch cooler over the east.
A fairly expansive freezing fog and low cloud layer has formed along and south of the I-40 corridor from the Flagstaff area westward this morning. By this evening, a deep upper low in northwestern Nevada enters western Arizona, then moves across the I-40 corridor through the day Friday and into New Mexico Friday evening. Truthfully, the most dynamic portions of the low, as well the cold pool, will favor the Kaibab Plateau down the western Mogollon Rim. S/SW winds 5-10 kts, with occasional gusts 20-25 kts over the high terrain.
1130 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 17Z Surface analysis places a secondary cold front from Western Indiana back through portions of the Mid-South just east of the Mississippi River.
Water vapor imagery shows a well defined upper low over northwest IN. We are on the north side of the low track and will stay stuck in the stratus or a while. However, synoptic pcpn will be waning after this time and so if freezing drizzle occurs, impacts will be limited.
1137 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 (Thursday through Friday) A frontal boundary from near Texarkana to Lufkin to gradually shift east as dry high pressure builds in its wake. Dewpoint values currently ranging from the lower 20s west of the boundary to the mid 40s to the east. This is due to multiple troughs exiting the Intermountain West in southwesterly flow across the lower Great Plains.
Freezing drizzle seems to be persisting across eastern portions of the CWA, especially across the MN counties where plow/web cams show decent icing. Earlier this morning issued an SPS for the freezing drizzle and possible travel issues across the eastern CWA. May see a little light snow linger over east central South Dakota through mid morning or so, then high pressure will settle in over the central part of the country, and will remain the dominant feature over the area through the day Friday. High temperatures today will range from the lower 20s across west central Minnesota and northeastern South Dakota, to the upper 20s to lower 30s west of the Missouri River. Highs on Friday will be mainly in the 20s, with a few locations across south central South Dakota possibly reaching the lower 30s.
1017 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2023 08z surface analysis had low over northwest MO and another over north central MT with a trough connecting the two. Water vapour loop depicted upper low over southeast NE with leftover deformation zone snows tapering off for south-central SD. A weaker upper low noted over southeast SK. Today/tonight, both upper lows shift east.
A cold frontal boundary is tracking east across our forecast area which should allow for cooler temperatures to settle across most of the area. With this in mind, both the GFS and the ECWMF show a high pressure system over the ArkLaMiss region.