Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level low is centered overhead of the forecast area which should keep showers going through late tonight. The upper level low shifts east into eastern Idaho Sunday morning continuing the threat for showers across mainly southwest Idaho Sunday afternoon and evening. Northwesterly winds will also increase behind the low pressure system especially from Mountain Home through the Western Magic Valley Sunday afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday will reach the mid 40s in the lower valleys which is about 15 degrees below normal.
539 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Water vapor shows large western CONUS trof with series of waves extending from the Pac NW into the Central Plains. Main upper low will gradually take shape over WY on Sunday.
945 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Visibilities continue to decrease under the low stratus deck over the southwest. For the rest of today, expect stratus and fog to continue to erode from north to south as high pressure slowly slides southeast. High pressure moves across the state tonight, and into Sunday morning which will mean light winds. With abundant snowpack, fog (and stratus) will once again be possible overnight but there won't be as much moisture in the lower atmosphere as in previous nights. For Sunday, expect a mostly cloudy sky, light winds, and below normal temperatures with highs mainly in the lower 20s to lower 30s.
928 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 The main change for the evening update will be temperatures, as obs are running several degrees warmer than forecast. This is likely due to winds, which should drop off quickly over the next few hours as high pressure builds in. High pressure builds in with a clear sky and lighter winds.
Look for a noticeably warmer temperatures along with another widespread rainfall event by the end of the upcoming workweek. Diminishing winds and dry/seasonable conditions will emerge tonight into tomorrow morning in wake of the low as a diffuse pressure field briefly develops.
305 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 A deep low pressure system lifting northeast into Quebec today will keep a northwest flow of dry air over the region into at least this evening.
Shallow high pressure to maintain dry conditions across the region on Monday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s across southeast Oklahoma to near 80 degrees across deep east Texas and north Louisiana.
(Today through Monday Night ) Mainly quiet conditions ongoing across the state early this Sun morning with high pressure remaining over the region. A weak cold front was slowing over SWRN MO into NERN OK. one along/behind the cold front across NRN AR. Cooler air will settle across the area behind the front tonight into Mon.
316 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Low pressure enters southern Canada while a secondary low exits through the Gulf of Maine today.
216 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 High pressure will settle into the area today, bringing light winds and plenty of sunshine.
210 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Wind should gradually diminish tonight as high pressure gradually builds in. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Sunday under the high. The diminishing wind trend should continue overnight as the surface pressure gradient relaxes as high pressure builds in. Weak cold advection and ridging overnight will return some clearing. Current guidance indicates that a low amplitude trough could pass mid-week and return temperatures to near or slightly below average.
Fog will dissipate after sunrise later this morning High pressure continues to be locked in across South Florida in the short term. A cold front moving across the northeast will stall well north of the region with all precip remaining to the north. Warm temperatures will continue with maximum temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and reaching into the lower 90s over the interior. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s inland to the lower to mid 70s along the coasts.
Otherwise, high pressure over the OH Valley will drift to the ENE later today, providing more of an easterly flow into the area.
The weather pattern across the island chain will remain static as a ridge of high pressure fluctuates across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean waters. The ridging will promote mainly gentle to moderate southerly breezes today through mid-week, with breezes occasionally falling to light. The southerly wind flow and ridging at the surface and aloft will likely cause above normal temperatures throughout the island chain, with daytime high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 80s and dew point temperatures in the lower 70s.
304 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 High pressure will settle into the area today, bringing light winds and plenty of sunshine.
High temperatures will be similar to slightly cooler than yesterday, ranging from the upper 50s (north) to the low 70s (south).
159 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Current surface map places high pressure across the Northern Plains with stationary front along the northern Rockies into the central plains. This low tracks across Wyoming today.
and Monday Synopsis: The strong cyclone that impacted the region yesterday is moving across northeast Ontario into Quebec early this morning. Behind this cyclone, high pressure is centered across the northern Plains with weak cold advection occurring over northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
The low level jet increases as a weak short moves through the upper flow, aiding in overall lift. This in turn also increases the low level warm advection.
Ridging aloft and at the surface over the SW Atlantic extending over the peninsula will allow for continued mostly sunny and warm afternoons along with overnight and early morning fog potential with generally southerly flow across the area over the next couple days.
(Today through Monday) Latest surface analysis indicates a warm front pushing northward across Deep South Texas early this morning. Highs today will range from the 70s at the beaches, the 80s near the coast and the low to mid 90s inland. Tonight will be mild with clouds increase and lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
Despite a cold front this morning, temps have warmed up nicely today due to a dry northerly flow. After a mild night with temps in the 60s, we look to be even warmer tomorrow as highs settle into the mid 80s to mid 90s.
335 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Broad mid level troughing featured from the west coast to the great lakes and anchored by a 140 knot central pacific upper jet will continue to govern conditions over the next several days. Expansive north-central canadian high pressure takes control for the early week period.
As it does so, a cold front will sweep through our cwa. After highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s today, it will be much cooler on Monday. Guidance has trended down, and most areas probably will be stuck in the lower half of the 50s.
425 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 A front will stall to our south today, allowing high pressure to move into the southern Appalachians. Low pressure will bring a chance of showers to the area Monday.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 1204 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Strong low pressure to track through the Great Lakes into southern Canada tonight with strong winds diminishing this evening and lingering rain showers ending. Weak high pressure to offer a dry period overnight into Sunday.
Water vapor shows large western CONUS trof with series of waves extending from the Pac NW into the Central Plains. Main upper low will gradually take shape over WY on Sunday. Light snow will slowly taper on Monday as main upper low gets picked up by a northern stream trof and shifts east of the Northern Plains by late in the day.
However, if the low clouds linger through sunrise we may struggle to drop into the mid to low 40s as currently expected.
1032 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 This mornings upper low has lifted into the Great Lakes leaving behind just a CU field across the area this afternoon. Temperatures will warm up into the lower-mid 60s from St. Louis and point south and east ahead of the cold front tomorrow.
Snow was melting thanks to this and warmer temperatures moving into the area. This with a cold front is expected to fire showers and storms across eastern portions of the CWA. After this, expect zonal to SW flow to bring warmer temps to the area with highs in the 50s to near 70 by the end of the week. Farther south, the better chance for rain will be in the afternoon, as the low pressure center moves by.
Outside of any lingering flurries across NW Iowa, should see quiet conditions prevail across the region, as Canadian high pressure builds overhead. In regard to temperatures, do expect to see a bit more warming occur along and MO River Valley and south of Highway 20 - with values rising into the low 40s.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 159 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Strong low pressure to track through the Great Lakes into southern Canada tonight with strong winds diminishing this evening and lingering rain showers ending. Weak high pressure to offer a dry period overnight into Sunday.
1222 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 (This evening through Sunday) For this evening and overnight, another short wave trough will be approaching the area moving across northern Arizona and New Mexico. Therefore, temperatures will actually be slightly warmer on Sunday afternoon.
The first chance comes tonight with a warm front draped to our south. Zonal flow continues on Monday, allowing for a nice start to the work week with high temperatures trending a few degrees cooler.
(Today and tonight) With weak troughing to near zonal flow in the upper levels, the short-term forecast looks to remain rather benign. A weak cold frontal boundary is beginning to push into the Red River region as of 130 AM. Winds behind the front will shift to a more northerly direction, helping to keep temperatures north of the boundary a little cooler in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The boundary is expected to lift north through the afternoon as increased insolation from mostly clear skies overhead and daytime heating begin to push the cooler airmass back. As the sun sets and diurnal heating is lost, the cooler airmass will be able to continue its trek south through the rest of the CWA, shifting winds to a more north/northeasterly direction.
120 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 The main change for the evening update will be temperatures, as obs are running several degrees warmer than forecast. This is likely due to winds, which should drop off quickly over the next few hours as high pressure builds in. High pressure builds in with a clear sky and lighter winds.
Due to combination of precipitation and clouds, temperatures will trend a slightly cooler. Due to persistent cold air advection, trended a little cooler with max and min temperatures.
Warmer temperatures in the teens above have remained in the forested areas of MN closer to low pressure and slightly stronger surface pressure gradients. This may allow us to run a few degrees warmer than base NBM, though this still would result in highs in the 20s for most this afternoon (above freezing in the forested areas of MN). Weak PVA and a cold front move over the region, and there is a signal for light QPF between various models.
SE flow ahead of this boundary pushes warmer air into central MO south of I-70 pushing midday highs into the 50s.
1106 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Wind should gradually diminish tonight as high pressure gradually builds in. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Sunday under the high. The diminishing wind trend should continue overnight as the surface pressure gradient relaxes as high pressure builds in. Weak cold advection and ridging overnight will return some clearing. Current guidance indicates that a low amplitude trough could pass mid-week and return temperatures to near or slightly below average.
Rain chances decrease through the day on Monday as low level flow becomes northerly behind a cold front.
Temperatures are expected to only reach into the low to mid 20s east of the Missouri and into the 30s west river.
To the south, have started seeing some radar returns approach the Highway 20 corridor associated with a low off to the south, spinning across the southeastern portion of NE.
A patch of lower clouds is expanding from western Lake Superior and nw WI into western Upper Mi as well in response to increasing low-level convergence and weak CAA from a subtle trough moving over the area. Should be a much quieter day across the fcst area, but there will most likely be an increase in cloud cover as a weak trough and slightly colder air (-7 to -9C 850 mb temps) moves across the area to support some lake/diurnal instability clouds.
Temperatures across central KY and southern IN are exhibiting a classic ridge/valley pattern with readings ranging from the mid-30s in sheltered valleys where PBL decoupling has taken place to the low- to-mid 40s at more exposed sites. With the help of ample sunshine, temperatures should warm into the 60s and 70s this afternoon with cooler temperatures north and warmer temperatures south. In addition to these showers, winds will shift to northwesterly after FROPA, ushering in cooler temperatures for the day on Monday.
Weak high pressure will move across the area early tonight followed by developing weak low pressure that will be over the region Sunday. High pressure will strengthen across the area Monday through Monday night, resulting in dry and slightly cooler conditions.
1136 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Weak high pressure will bring dry weather to the Mid-South tonight into Sunday morning.
1140 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 (This evening through Monday) A much needed break is in store for the short term as high pressure has settled over the area.
Look for noticeably warmer temperatures along with another widespread rainfall event by the end of the upcoming workweek. Diminishing winds and dry/seasonable conditions will emerge tonight into tomorrow morning in wake of the low as a diffuse pressure field briefly develops.
(Today and tonight) A cold front located to our northeast will move southwest through the forecast area this morning with model guidance indicating this front will push through the entire forecast area by mid-morning. Overall, the NBM looks to have a good handle on how far east the front pulls back and is in line with the high-res guidance.
354 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain returns Monday with crossing low pressure.
(Today and tonight) As small but intense upper trough will exit Kansas and move toward the mid-Mississippi Valley today, reinforcing lower level ridge of high pressure and northerly winds over the region. Temperatures only slightly cooler most locations.
421 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued along the Highway 2 corridor as well as Sheridan county through noon today. Light snow is expected later this afternoon and evening across our southern and eastern zones with minimal accumulation as the highest amounts will stay well to the south of us.
Southerly winds persist over the next few days as high pressure ridges across the waters before a cold front pushes through the area toward mid week, followed by high pressure building over the waters from the north resulting in northeast to east winds during the latter half of the week. No considerable fire concerns through the period as current high pressure remains for another couple days followed by a cold front toward mid week and high pressure returning later in the week.
Expect the highest synoptically driven accumulations to be across southwest Nebraska with amounts tapering off further to the north. With EFI/SoT guidance hinting that some of the higher accumulations will be further to the south more toward Kansas and only modest ensemble mean QPF values, confidence is not high enough to issue a headline.
Broad low level warm advective pcpn sweeps across the region Thu in both models as a sfc warm front lifts north. Instability on the increase ahead of the storm's attendant cold front, and could have some rumbles of thunder - especially in the south. Weak low pressure moving across Iowa will increase cloud cover over the area this morning.
A low pressure system tracks eastward through the Ohio Valley sending a plume of moisture through southern Lower Michigan this evening and overnight. Broad mid level troughing featured from the west coast to the great lakes and anchored by a 140 knot central pacific upper jet will continue to govern conditions over the next several days. Expansive north-central Canadian high pressure takes control for the early week period.
The low level cyclonic flow continues as well, so the weak snow showers depicted by the high resolution models seem reasonable, vs the nearly dry lower resolution global model suite.
616 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 A front will stall to our south today, allowing high pressure to move into the southern Appalachians. Low pressure will bring a chance of showers to the area Monday.
315 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2023 GOES Satellite and surface observations reveal a broad low pressure system across southwest Montana into southeast Idaho this morning. Widespread light to moderate snow continues develop on the north-northwest quadrant of this low, with area observations and webcams showing snow covered roadways across southwest Montana. The main message for the coming week continues to be below normal temperatures and occasional precipitation chances as a general trough resides over the western states.
551 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain returns Monday with crossing low pressure.
528 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Current surface map places high pressure across the Northern Plains with stationary front along the northern Rockies into the central plains. This low tracks across Wyoming today.
South of this boundary dew points were running from the lower 60s to the lower 70s while north of the boundary dew points were in the 50s. This boundary will remain the focus for convective development today as it tries to drift farther north ahead of a cold front that will move into our CWA later tonight. The potential for severe storms will shift east of Mississippi by midnight and the cold front will be moving into our northwest most zones at that time. This cold front will still be pushing through our southern zones at sunrise resulting in a decent temperature gradient for morning lows ranging from the lower 50s northwest to the mid 60s southeast.
553 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) Mainly quiet conditions ongoing across the state early this Sun morning with high pressure remaining over the region. A weak cold front was slowing over SWRN MO into NERN OK. one along/behind the cold front across NRN AR. Cooler air will settle across the area behind the front tonight into Mon.
1003 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain returns Monday with crossing low pressure.
949 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 High pressure will be in place across much of the region for today.
733 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 (Today through Monday Night) After a cool/dry start to the day, will be expecting changes as the day progresses with the development/passage of a warm front at/near the coast. With the rains and abundant clouds, high temperatures on Mon should remain in the lower and mid 70s.
536 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies and weak ridging across Colorado. The exception is scattered clouds in the mountains where moisture is trapped in the higher terrain. Steep lapse rates in the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere, should produce locally heavier snow. The snow may end around midday as downslope winds and subsidence on the backside of the trough moves off the mountains. Some of the CAMs are showing the higher amounts over the far northeastern corner of Colorado, with some favoring Northeastern Weld and Northern Logan County, while others focus on Washington County.
601 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 (Today and tonight) As small but intense upper trough will exit Kansas and move toward the mid-Mississippi Valley today, reinforcing lower level ridge of high pressure and northerly winds over the region. Temperatures only slightly cooler most locations.
(Today through Monday Night) After a cool/dry start to the day, will be expecting changes as the day progresses with the development/passage of a warm front at/near the coast. With the rains and abundant clouds, high temperatures on Mon should remain in the lower and mid 70s.
-Enriquez PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued along the Highway 2 corridor as well as Sheridan county through noon today. Light snow is expected later this afternoon and evening across our southern and eastern zones with minimal accumulation as the highest amounts will stay well to the south of us.
930 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 High pressure returns to the region briefly today with warm temperatures and clear skies.
728 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Low pressure enters southern Canada while a secondary low exits through the Gulf of Maine today.
733 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Ridging aloft and at the surface over the SW Atlantic extending over the peninsula will allow for continued mostly sunny and warm afternoons along with overnight and early morning fog potential with generally southerly flow across the area over the next couple days.
Mean layer ridging centered in the western North Atlantic continues to control our sensible weather. The aforementioned ridging will slowly eek south today, which will keep our environment relatively unchanged through the evening.
615 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front located to our northeast will move southwest through the forecast area this morning with model guidance indicating this front will push through the entire forecast area by mid-morning. Overall, the NBM looks to have a good handle on how far east the front pulls back and is in line with the high-res guidance.
527 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 High pressure will settle into the area today, bringing light winds and plenty of sunshine.
1031 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Weak high pressure to offer a dry weather today.
Broad low level warm advective pcpn sweeps across the region Thu in both models as a sfc warm front lifts north. Instability on the increase ahead of the storm's attendant cold front, and could have some rumbles of thunder - especially in the south. Latest models show lower ceilings developing over RST Sunday morning as a low pressure system shifts east to our south. As the low pressure shifts east to our south this afternoon, a mid- level VFR ceiling is expected to move over LSE.
613 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 (Today and tonight) With weak troughing to near zonal flow in the upper levels, the short-term forecast looks to remain rather benign. A weak cold frontal boundary is beginning to push into the Red River region as of 130 AM. Winds behind the front will shift to a more northerly direction, helping to keep temperatures north of the boundary a little cooler in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The boundary is expected to lift north through the afternoon as increased insolation from mostly clear skies overhead and daytime heating begin to push the cooler airmass back. As the sun sets and diurnal heating is lost, the cooler airmass will be able to continue its trek south through the rest of the CWA, shifting winds to a more north/northeasterly direction.
A low pressure center spinning right over our CWA will bring one more day of snow showers before moving east and granting most areas a relative break on Mon. Otherwise, some patchy freezing fog is expected tonight into Mon AM.
312 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies and weak ridging across Colorado. The exception is scattered clouds in the mountains where moisture is trapped in the higher terrain. Steep lapse rates in the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere, should produce locally heavier snow. The snow may end around midday as downslope winds and subsidence on the backside of the trough moves off the mountains. Some of the CAMs are showing the higher amounts over the far northeastern corner of Colorado, with some favoring Northeastern Weld and Northern Logan County, while others focus on Washington County.
Shear values are on the lower end but are still high enough to give rise to the possibility of tornoadoes.