Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
536 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 A ridge of higher pressure will strengthen through the day which will promote VFR conditions through the TAF period. A surplus of moisture will filter in ahead of a cold front, which will bring the expansion of clouds across SE MI through the afternoon hours. Winds remain light, but a shift from southwest to more northerly will take place after the passage of a surface cold front.
405 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Impacts today will be much cooler temps and possible light rain amounts. WRT to temps, cloudy skies and weak CAA will cause temps to be much cooler today, 15 to 20 degrees below yesterdays highs. This cooler airmass and the lack of instability lend towards a rather weak system today. 00Z HREF probability matched mean paints a tenth of an inch or less along the highway 200 to I94 corridor through the afternoon.
641 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure, dry weather, and a warming temperature trend are expected through Monday.
307 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2023 The forecast area remains on the western periphery on an expansive high pressure centered over the central US. This high is currently advecting dry air into the region. This along with strong midlevel capping will limit afternoon convection, although a stray shower is possible on the higher terrain. The drier air mass, warmer temperatures and wind may cause localized critical fire weather in the lower elevations. This moisture appears sufficient enough for isolated showers in the higher terrain. The higher chances for showers will be in the San Juans and portions of eastern Utah.
30 Previous Discussion: /Through Monday/ The 500 mb ridge centered over the Southern Plains will continue to provide extreme heat across the region as its heights rise to an impressive 600 decameters on Sunday.
429 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Current surface analysis places trough/frontal boundary stretching though the upper midwest into the central plains, while high remains over southern Manitoba/Alberta. Upper level analysis places broad high over the southern/central plains into the lower midwest. Our area remains to the north of the high with west/southwest flow and a variety of modest short waves pushing through.
701 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 A weak cold front will move southeast across the area on Monday, with high pressure returning behind it through midweek.
755 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure slides offshore today. A cold front approaches early Monday and moves through early Monday night.
545 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (Today) The heat continues today under an expansive upper ridge settled over much of the center of the country. Went mostly with a persistence forecast for today, with highs possibly a degree or two warmer than yesterday, and dewpoints hanging in the mid to upper 70s across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas within the heaviest rain footprint from the last couple of weeks.
635 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (Today through Monday night) High pressure will gradually shift east for the short term and we will start to see a bit of a cool down on temperatures, and by cool down we mean a few degrees, as we will still be under the influence of the large scale high.
956 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure slides offshore today. A cold front approaches early Monday and moves through early Monday night.
From synopsis, strengthening high pressure over the eastern United States and Atlantic, along with a tropical wave moving west through the Keys coastal waters, will bring freshening easterly breezes and continued rounds of unsettled weather today.
646 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Aviation Early this morning, a cold front extends from a low over Lake Superior southwest across Wisconsin. Ahead of the front, we're going to see moisture pool and sfc dewpoints will climb into the lower to mid 70s. Partly cloudy skies are expected Monday with highs several degrees cooler than today.
(Rest of Today) A strong upper level ridge was situated over the KS/MO region, with 12Z or 7 AM CDT heights of 600 decameters at 500mb per the Topeka sounding. Given somewhat higher heights and a SE flow, high temperatures later this afternoon should warm mainly into the lower 90s.
615 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (Today through Monday) A large dome of high pressure over the southern CONUS will keep deeper moisture suppressed southward over the Gulf of Mexico.
Issued by National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1007 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure will build over the area today into tomorrow, bringing mostly dry weather and warming temps.
808 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 The week ahead is looking generally dry and warm as high pressure will dominate much of the country. Monday will remain dry, and temperatures continue to warm as the high pressure centered over the central CONUS builds east into the local area and our winds shift to more southerly.
928 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure persists this weekend. Blocking high pressure increases the heat and humidity through much of the work week. Dry weather conditions continue as an upper level ridge remains in control. The heat cranks back up this week in response to a stout upper level ridge parked over the heart of the country. Slight adjustments of the ridge to the north and east during the start of the work week will promote height rises and a stronger influence for dry weather and hotter temperatures.
613 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (Today and tonight) A persistence forecast is in store for a persistent synoptic pattern of high pressure continuing to drive our regional ambient weather conditions. The biggest difference for today from recent days is a steadier and more pronounced southeast surface wind regime advecting a modest amount of boundary layer moisture, noted by more widespread surface dewpoints in the low to mid 50s, helping to lower max temperatures slightly. The higher dewpoints will in turn, result in a slightly more mild overnight, but barely noticeable from what we've been already experiencing.
548 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (Today) Clear, calm, and dry conditions continue early this morning as a broad, dominant area of high pressure to our northwest remains in control of the weather across the Tennessee Valley and the Deep South. This ridge will amplify today and the combination of ample sunshine/heating, virtually no cloud cover, and light SE/SSE flow will help to push highs about 3-5 degrees higher than yesterday. This will place our high temperatures in the low to mid 90s in most locations.
1037 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure, dry weather, and a warming temperature trend are expected through Monday.
548 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure slides offshore today. A cold front approaches early Monday and moves through early Monday night.
648 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Upper level high pressure will build into the region through mid week, leading to mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. Strong mid level ridge centered over the central Plains will continue to build east into the Ohio Valley today, marked by rising geopotential heights in the mid troposphere. Flow rotating around the high will allow for a few mid clouds along with perhaps some diurnal cumulus clouds. After lows in the 65 to 70 degree range, highs will be a little warmer on Monday but still generally upper 80s north to the lower 90s south.
955 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 A disturbance and push of moisture riding over an amplified upper level high continues to bring widespread showers this morning. Current surface analysis places trough/frontal boundary stretching though the upper midwest into the central plains, while high remains over southern Manitoba/Alberta. Upper level analysis places broad high over the southern/central plains into the lower midwest. Our area remains to the north of the high with west/southwest flow and a variety of modest short waves pushing through.
The heat and humidity have ramped up significantly today with temperatures in the low to mid 90s.
Weak northerly flow on its east side will bring a weak cold front south toward us near the end of the period. However, the strength of the high will crush any chance at convection, with mostly clear skies continuing. The dominating high will result in hot high temperatures mostly in the lower 90s on Monday.
Upper level high pressure will build into the region through mid week, leading to mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will drop slowly southeast into northern portions of our area overnight. With some weak low level CAA developing behind the boundary we will range highs on Monday from the mid 80s north to the lower 90s across the south. Have trended the forecast toward a model blend and this generally yields dewpoints in the lower 70s through the afternoon.
-thor MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: A large area of hot high pressure currently extends from the Four Corners to the southern and central Plains. Zonal flow exists along the International Border with a series of small synoptic troughs and ridges north of this set up over the western half of Canada. Today through Monday morning: Pattern is bring monsoonal moisture across the region this morning which is combining with the cooler air from yesterday to form a more slow stratiform rain band across the southern half of the CWA.
1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (Today through Monday afternoon) Today should be a near carbon-copy of yesterday's weather with the only change in the synoptic pattern being a very slight eastward nudge of the ridge. 5-1 C cooler and high temperatures will be a degree or so cooler than yesterday. Continued dry low/mid levels keeps the region dry today, but persistent easterly flow supplied by the ridge gradually moistens the column by Monday. High-resolution guidance develops afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily across the higher terrain but a few storms across the basin cannot be ruled out.
424 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 The week ahead is looking generally dry and warm as high pressure will dominate much of the country. No major changes needed for now, as temperatures in the lower and mid 80s and mostly comfortable dewpoints create a nice late August afternoon.
126 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Broad upper ridging continues to cover the central and eastern CONUS, while moisture emanating from Hurricane Hilary is pushing north over the western states. At the surface, high pressure sits over ND, resulting in some breezy easterly winds across our CWA. Over the next few days, the upper high/ridge will strengthen and broaden, resulting in another period of hot and dry weather.
A drier and hotter pattern returns this week as high pressure builds in from the north.
133 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 A weak cold front will move southeast across the area on Monday, with high pressure returning behind it through midweek.
103 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 FEW-SCT lower VFR cu/strato-cu will accompany a cold front this afternoon with a period of BKN cigs possible mainly KPTK north.
A disturbance and push of moisture riding over an amplified upper level high continues to bring widespread showers this morning. Current surface analysis places trough/frontal boundary stretching though the upper midwest into the central plains, while high remains over southern Manitoba/Alberta. Upper level analysis places broad high over the southern/central plains into the lower midwest. Our area remains to the north of the high with west/southwest flow and a variety of modest short waves pushing through.
136 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure slides offshore today. A cold front approaches early Monday and moves through early Monday night.
(This afternoon through Monday) The pattern is now locked in across much of the CONUS, with the 500mb ridge continuing to amplify over the Great Plains. High temperatures should be able to rise about a degree or so warmer than yesterday and top out in the mid to upper 90s. Dewpoints in the lower 70s coupled with high temps in the upper 90s to near 100 will send heat index values over 105 degrees across much of the area. A tropical wave in the Central Gulf of Mexico will remain well to our south as it traverses west on the southern periphery of the upper ridge.
133 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure persists this weekend. Blocking high pressure increases the heat and humidity through much of the work week.
1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 12Z upper air analysis places the center of an upper-level ridge over east Kansas and west central Missouri. METAR observations across the Lower Mississippi Valley show surface dewpoints rising somewhat across areas mostly west of the Mississippi River.
Temperatures have quickly shot up to the low to mid 80s this morning, which is pretty close to yesterday's highs.
1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (Rest of Today) A strong upper level ridge was situated over the KS/MO region, with 12Z or 7 AM CDT heights of 600 decameters at 500mb per the Topeka sounding. Given somewhat higher heights and a SE flow, high temperatures later this afternoon should warm mainly into the lower 90s.
Amplified high over the central US, combined with a trough in the west, and now Tropical Storm Hilary will continue to stream Pacific moisture across the region. The weakening Tropical Storm Hilary allows the ridge to build more over the region and cut off the stream of moisture. Temperatures also look to rebound somewhat and back into the 70s into the lower 80s. Some weak instability could bring an isolated thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon, although the amplified ridge will limit these chances. The continued strengthening of the ridge over the forecast area will promote a warming trend through the middle of the coming week while also pushing precipitation chances to the far north and into Canada. This northward push of the ridge will also move the bulk of wildfire smoke aloft out of our area for the short term.
The ridge will amplify somewhat as the remnants of Hurricane Hillary are absorbed into the mid-latitude jet across the Northwest.
(Tonight) A very strong upper level ridge with maximum 500mb heights at or greater than 600 decameters was ensconced over KS/MO region. This ridge was creating more of a troughing west (also partially associated with Tropical Storm Hillary now moving northward over the northern Baja), and ridging central and east to start the week.
The ridge that has been responsible for our persistent heat will continue drifting slowly northeastward, partially in response to Hurricane Hilary's northward trajectory over the western CONUS. The ridge's northeastward displacement will enhance easterly mid-level flow over the region, yielding an increase in mid-level moisture over the region ahead of a potential tropical disturbance midweek.
211 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 The week ahead is looking generally dry and warm as high pressure will dominate much of the country. Dry air in the lower levels is resulting in much of the rain from these showers evaporating before reaching the surface, but a few folks could see a light sprinkle or brief period of light rain before sundown.
215 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Increasing clouds tonight will lead to a few passing showers and sprinkles on Monday as a cold front crosses the area. Then, cooler and drier weather under high pressure builds in for much of the week.
(Monday through Sunday) Dangerous heat will persist through the work week across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as a large upper level ridge aloft reigns supreme across the central United States.
151 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Aviation Early this morning, a cold front extends from a low over Lake Superior southwest across Wisconsin. Ahead of the front, we're going to see moisture pool and sfc dewpoints will climb into the lower to mid 70s. Partly cloudy skies are expected Monday with highs several degrees cooler than today.
150 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (This afternoon through Monday) The pattern is now locked in across much of the CONUS, with the 500mb ridge continuing to amplify over the Great Plains. High temperatures should be able to rise about a degree or so warmer than yesterday and top out in the mid to upper 90s. Dewpoints in the lower 70s coupled with high temps in the upper 90s to near 100 will send heat index values over 105 degrees across much of the area. A tropical wave in the Central Gulf of Mexico will remain well to our south as it traverses west on the southern periphery of the upper ridge.
140 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2023 The general 500mb forecast features a 601dam high pressure center over western Missouri with an upper level trough over the western quarter of the country.
On Monday, an upper level ridge will remain centered across western portions of the Midwest, while a tropical low approached the South Texas Coast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across our southern counties, with the highest coverage expected across the northern Edwards Plateau. (Monday night through next Sunday) Upper level ridge shifts slightly northeast on Monday and allows the tropical system to make a run and then west northwest into south Texas early in the week. Will see some small drop in temperatures with highs of 95 to 100 across the southern half of the area, with hotter temperatures farther north across the northern Big Country nearest the ridge. Once the system shifts west, upper ridge builds back into the area and temperatures will begin to climb for late week.
258 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Increasing clouds tonight will lead to a few passing showers and sprinkles on Monday as a cold front crosses the area. Then, cooler and drier weather under high pressure builds in for much of the week.
(This evening through Monday) The forecast area will remain on the southwestern flank of an expansive and strong upper level high centered over the lower Missouri Valley. This in turn will have the chance of producing some upslope-induced convection Monday afternoon, although this is most likely to occur closer to the Pecos River valley farther away from the subsident effects of the upper high. However, there is a narrow band of mid level moisture rotating westward on the south side of the mid/upper ridge along and north of the Red River.
Relatively quiet early this morning, with the upper ridge still in place and with the stronger and more energetic flow along with higher moisture content air situated over the western CONUS.
While this will bring heavy precipitation to many areas in the northwest, the large ridge over the central CONUS will build heights back into our area keeping much of this precipitation to the west. Strong mid-level winds will also push up into our region Monday from Hilary bringing 30-40 mph wind gusts to the higher elevations and over the Beartooth Pass. A large ridge center over the central CONUS will back into the forecast area this week.
Ridging then builds in rapidly during the afternoon and evening hours from west to east.
407 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 A weak cold front will move southeast across the area late tonight into early Monday, with high pressure returning behind it through midweek.
233 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure will gradually push offshore late tonight into Monday.
1110 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 The week ahead is looking generally dry and warm as high pressure will dominate much of the country. Monday will remain dry, and temperatures continue to warm as the high pressure centered over the central CONUS builds east into the local area and our winds shift to more southerly.
133 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Upper level high pressure will build into the region through mid week, leading to mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. Mid level ridge over the central Plains will continue to build into our region form the west today. After lows in the 65 to 70 degree range, highs will be a little warmer on Monday but still generally upper 80s north to the lower 90s south.
329 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure remains off the mid Atlantic coast through tonight. A cold front approaches early Monday and moves through the region Monday afternoon into early Monday night.
103 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure persists this weekend. Blocking high pressure increases the heat and humidity through much of the work week. Dry weather conditions continue as an upper level ridge remains in control. The heat cranks back up this week in response to a stout upper level ridge parked over the heart of the country. Slight adjustments of the ridge to the north and east during the start of the work week will promote height rises and a stronger influence for dry weather and hotter temperatures.
Powerful 602 dm midlevel anticyclone was centered over eastern Kansas at midday.
An area of high pressure has settled into the central United States with the trough over the eastern United States shifting northward. As the high settles in, drier air will try to enter the region heading into Monday.
A strong high pressure across the central part of the US will be the off switch for afternoon convection in the short term; but this dome will also begin to ramp the temperatures up. Today's highs will be in the low 90s and any potential rain will be triggered by the sea breeze at the very far south eastern portion of the CWA. As the area heats up, our relative humidity stays on the low side of normal as do our PW values at least in the short term.
Issued by National Weather Service Wakefield VA 143 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure will build over the area today into tomorrow, bringing mostly dry weather and warming temps.
(This evening through Monday night) A strong upper-level ridge. Now, brace yourselves for this because it's pretty shocking: there's a very low chance for rain Monday! The upper-level ridge may nudge just enough to the northeast such that a portion of our area may be removed from the large-scale subsidence aloft just enough that a shower or thunderstorm may be able to develop. NBM's idea of limiting any chance for rain to the southwestern counties makes more sense because that is farther away from the center of the upper-level ridge, but will limit the maximum to 14% for now.
1209 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (Today through Monday night) High pressure will gradually shift east for the short term and we will start to see a bit of a cool down on temperatures, and by cool down we mean a few degrees, as we will still be under the influence of the large scale high.
On Monday, an upper level ridge will remain centered across western portions of the Midwest, while a tropical low approached the South Texas Coast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across our southern counties, with the highest coverage expected across the northern Edwards Plateau.
Forecast Discussion: This afternoon, the center of a very strong and very large H5 ridge resides directly overhead. The higher dew points are expected in far eastern KS tomorrow afternoon but actual temps will be hotter further west.
As a backdoor cold front pushes eastward through the area, some counties affected may drop below 100 degree heat index values before 8 PM. Overnight, a backdoor cold front will also serve to help lower temperatures. Wildfire smoke from Canada is working its way into portions of the CWA, with gentle subsidence from the high pressure regime helping bring patchy smoke to the surface. A wave of more widespread surface smoke is expected tonight as the backdoor cold front moves in from the east, but will also largely dissipate into Monday morning. Monday continues to look like the coolest day of the work week, with easterly winds off Lake Michigan keeping temperatures on the lower side.
1130 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2023 The forecast area remains on the western periphery on an expansive high pressure centered over the central US. This high is currently advecting dry air into the region. This along with strong midlevel capping will limit afternoon convection, although a stray shower is possible on the higher terrain. The drier air mass, warmer temperatures and wind may cause localized critical fire weather in the lower elevations. This moisture appears sufficient enough for isolated showers in the higher terrain. The higher chances for showers will be in the San Juans and portions of eastern Utah.