Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TFJ Regional high pressure has taken control of the weather pattern, affording little in the way of progressive, smoke clearing opportunities. On the larger scale of things, the cool westerly flow today will give way to warmer southwesterly flow by tomorrow (Wednesday).
318 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Upper ridging will return to the region through the period, with the dry weather continuing. In this setup, above normal temperatures will also return to southern Colorado on Wednesday, with the highest temps in the low to mid 90s expected across the plains.
By sunrise Wednesday skies should be mostly clear as the wave moves away and brief ridging pushes in. By the end of the weekend there is a hint of a trough dropping down from Canada.
(The rest of tonight) Scattered showers and storms continue to develop in advance of a cold front that currently stretches from extreme southeast Kansas to just north of the Tulsa metro and back into central OKlahoma.
Water vapor imagery shows very dry air behind a departing trough over Nebraska. This trough is moisture-starved and will not bring any precipitation to our area. The axis of a ridge will move over Colorado during the day on Wednesday. The warmer air aloft along with plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to warm above normal. Relative humidity will drop to the low teens with gusts around 25 mph.
729 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Another hot and humid day is expected Wednesday as high pressure departs.
531 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Hot and generally quiet conditions will persist tonight through the weekend as high pressure dominates the Borderland.
Dry and near normal conditions are expected into the weekend, with temperatures trending a bit warmer during the weekend. Wednesday the upper flow becomes more zonal and this will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler in some areas.
808 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 High pressure brings dry weather with hot afternoons into Wednesday.
728 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Despite some decently thick upper level clouds penetrating through the dry air and ridging, temperatures have still be able to climb into the upper 80s and near 90 in some spots. These clouds should clear out of the region through this evening, and allow temps to drop below normal once again in the subsident ridging.
707 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 (Rest of today through Wednesday) Models continue to depict broad high pressure over the western Atlantic and most of the SE CONUS persisting through the next several days.
703 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Key Messages: - Very cool tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s.
748 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 High pressure aloft over the region today will shift east through the remainder of the week as low pressure aloft becomes established over the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region.
635 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Hot and humid conditions persist - Isolated to scattered showers/storms possible Wednesday across portions of the Coastal Plains Mid to upper level high pressure system will continue to build aloft through the short-term period. A weak passing disturbance on the eastern periphery of the high will combine with slightly deeper moisture coming in from the Gulf to spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday across portions of the Coastal Plains. Highs tomorrow will range from the low 90s along the coast to near 105 across the west.
1247 AM PDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Gradual warming trend to continue through the work week and into the weekend as high pressure builds in the desert southwest. Afternoon highs continue to tick upwards across Central California as high pressure aloft builds over the desert southwest and into the west coast.
211 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 High pressure will remain over the region for one more day. The next chance of rain comes late this week as a cold front moves into the Southeast and stalls.
The next chance for precipitation comes at the beginning of the work week as a strong autumn-like trough slides down from central Canada and sends a cold front through the mid-Mississippi Valley. 01" of rainfall will occur across the forecast area with the passage of the cold front. What is of greater certainty is that below normal temperatures are expected to continue through the end of the forecast period and even beyond thanks to the reinforcing shot of cold air behind the early week cold front. Overnight, a cold front will push through the area, causing winds to shift to westerly, and eventually northwesterly by morning.
1108 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 2023 High pressure has become well established over northern Mexico and southern New Mexico, which leaves us in southwest flow. The cooler air mass brought in by the last system has given us a taste of fall. Due to the high pressure temperatures will climb a few degrees tomorrow. Deep southwest flow will persist across eastern Utah and western Colorado through the end of the work week as high pressure remains parked over southern New Mexico and western Texas. Combined with troughing over the Pacific Northwest, the mid-level height gradient will remain tightened overhead.
912 PM PDT Tue Sep 5 2023 The cool trough along the California Coast today will ride inland on Wednesday, atop a building ridge over the Desert Southwest. The ridge will expand westward later this week, setting up a warming trend through the weekend. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO A weak trough over the coastal waters, today managed to hold large areas of marine stratus over the coastal waters and well inland along the coast today. The 00Z Miramar sounding showed the effects of the trough as winds in the column have backed and strengthened considerably over the past 24 hours. The warming will continue into the weekend as high pressure strengthens over the Desert Southwest.
256 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 The main focus in the short-term portion of the forecast will be shower and storm chances today with cooler/drier weather expected through the end of the week. As that happens, an associated cold front stretching south through southern Missouri this morning, will shift eastward and out of the CWA by 00Z/07th. After the frontal boundary passes through the area, expect conditions to feel much more comfortable as the dew points drop from 70s to the low 60s! High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s for most locations.
The activity was assocd with a mid-lvl trof moving thru the region. Predawn temps ranged fm the lower 70s in the rain-cooled areas, with mid 70s to lower 80s noted elsewhere. as upper ridging blds into the Rockies and NWly flow bcms established ovr the Mid-South. A shortwv trof wl drop SEwd thru the lower Ohio Valley region Thu, helping to push the CDFNT to the SW of the FA and allow temps wl return closer to seasonal norms.
305 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (Today through Thursday) Ridging aloft currently over the eastern portion of the CWA will continue to shift offshore this morning. High pressure at the surface will move offshore today while a weak frontal boundary moves into the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
127 AM PDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Gradual warming trend to continue through the work week and into the weekend as high pressure builds in the desert southwest.
147 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (Rest of today through Wednesday) Models continue to depict broad high pressure over the western Atlantic and most of the SE CONUS persisting through the next several days.
Key Messages: - Very cool tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s.
* Temperatures will be a little cooler than normal today behind the recent cold frontal passage and the presence of some fairly thick haze and wildfire smoke.
Low level moisture convergence ahead of an approaching cold front currently stretching from Wisconsin into central Missouri and eastern Oklahoma should help to raise dewpoints and PWATS values during the day as it moves closer to the area. High pressure builds into the area during the day on Thursday and remain over the Tennessee Valley into the upcoming weekend. There highs may only climb into the lower to mid 80s.
Drier and slightly cooler today into Thursday due to a passing cold front.
This afternoon, warmer temperatures and moisture will result in heat index values reaching or exceeding 105F in counties south and west of Memphis ahead of a cold front. This cold front will bring increased chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly south of I-40.
1123 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Hot and generally quiet conditions will persist tonight through the weekend as high pressure dominates the Borderland.
1143 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Upper ridging will return to the region through the period, with the dry weather continuing. In this setup, above normal temperatures will also return to southern Colorado on Wednesday, with the highest temps in the low to mid 90s expected across the plains.
324 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Much cooler temperatures today compared to earlier this week as well as more cloud cover and breezy winds. The cold front currently overhead will progress eastward through the morning hours, leaving cool temperatures, breezy winds, and cloudy skies in its wake.
(Wednesday through Thursday) A rather disturbed short-term remains in store for the region, as we come under the influence from the cold front to our north. we will continue to monitor the progress of upper ridging centered across New Mexico, into the Tx Hill Country with the ridge axis continuing to encompass the western third of our region.
* Temperatures will be cooler today and Wednesday behind the cold front.
Drier and slightly cooler on Wednesday into Thursday behind a front.
The risk for showers and storms will also increase as a cold front approaches and then crosses the region late Thursday. Shower storm chances continue tonight and through Thursday in response to a series of crossing upper level waves and eventually a cold front late on Thursday. Model progs point to the best instability generally to the east of Pittsburgh during that period, and this is where the higher chances of any severe storms lie. Rain coverage will decrease Thursday night as the front departs, but a few showers may linger as a cooler air mass starts to trickle in.
a weak cold front will drop southward out of MO into northern AR bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms to the area mainly after sunset this evening. Thereafter, northwest flow will develop and prevail over AR through the remainder of the forecast period in response to very strong high pressure building over west TX/southeast NM.
The region will be between high pressure to the south southeast, and this frontal boundary Tonight. Patchy inland fog will be possible again this morning, due to cooler air over moist low level.
(Today through Thursday night) Model agreement continues to project the rebuilding of the 500mb high pressure center early this morning. Despite the return of the high, temperatures are still recovering from the weak cold frontal boundary that move through yesterday. Expect afternoon high temperatures to still sit in the high 80s to low 90s for the day. Heading into the tomorrow, the high pressure center will continue to build which will keep hot and dry conditions over the Panhandles for yet another day.
Pleasant weather around northern Arizona this afternoon with mainly 70s in the high country and 80s to low 90s elsewhere.
At least patchy fog development is likely late tonight into Wednesday morning, with a handful of the high res models developing locally dense fog across portions of the area. (This evening through Wednesday) The current longwave pattern can be described as a broad upper level trough over the Epac/West Coast and high pressure over W Texas/S New Mexico.
300 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Key Message: Windy, much cooler and less humid Today, low stratus clouds currently moving SSE across western IA behind the cold front which is near the MS River will overspread the area this morning. Lowered highs a bit into the lower 70s along Highway 20 to the mid and upper 70s elsewhere. Some isolated showers will be possible mainly in east central Iowa and NW IL during the afternoon in the cyclonic flow around the departing low pressure. Lows will slip into the lower and middle 50s west of the MS River with upper 50s to near 60 east.
Our forecast area will reside between an area of high pressure over New Mexico/Texas and a trough over the Pacific Northwest the next couple of days resulting in a continued dry southwest flow aloft with temperatures climbing 2-3 degrees each day. Afternoon south winds 15-25 mph will be stirred up over Inyo County/Esmeralda/Nye counties in response to the trough while the rest of the region will see winds of 5-15 mph.
(Today through Thursday) No end in sight to the relentless 500 mb ridge of high pressure parked over the BRO CWFA. Precipitation-wise, despite the presence of the aforementioned mid-level ridge, enough moisture may exist to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow, and generally along and east of the Interstate 69C corridor.
With that in mind, and with somewhat less convection expected tomorrow in the absence of the northeastward departing upper level trof, felt it prudent to issue a heat advisory across the southeast Texas counties tomorrow afternoon. Without the upper level support of the trof that had been in place the last three days, convection isn't expected to be as scattered tomorrow as has been seen early this week. By Thursday morning, our region becomes the battle line between upper level ridging centered over west Texas attempting to build east and an upper trof wrapping around its eastern periphery. This trof will push a weak frontal boundary through the region Thursday morning. The proximity of the ridge will prevent any significant precipitation from developing as the boundary moves through, but it will advect some drier air into the region.
(Today through Thursday Night) Today an upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest should drift into the western half of the state. Influence from the aforementioned upper level ridge grows heading into Thursday, with shower/storm activity looking to become more isolated.
At any rate, it looks like the cold front will push through Wednesday night. Thursday and Thursday night are looking mostly clear and a little cooler. For the near term temps, still quite warm but perhaps a degree or two cooler on Thursday.
These are associated with an elongated, weak upper trough overhead which is forecast to slowly shift east through the day today and finally push east of the area tonight. The consensus is that this likely will not cause much of an uptick in convective coverage today, with better coverage favored tonight as the trough axis pushes through, and forecast PoPs reflect this.
Lows will dip down into the upper 60s to lower 70s and highs will rise into the low to mid 90s Wednesday. This will allow a weak cold front and supporting mid level trough to enter the southern US.
Otherwise, today will be warm with highs in the low to mid 80s as the ridge axis shifts east and southwesterly flow develops. Thursday will be warm once again with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Developing low pressure has reached far Northern Wisconsin early this morning. with a trailing cold front extending southward thru Eastern Iowa. Several areas of strong convection continue to fire around the low center and along the cold front. Pattern change begins today and tonight as upstream low pressure and the associated cold front slowly slide thru Michigan over the next 24 hours. High temps will range from the mid to upper 70s across our western CWA to the low to mid 80s across our eastern CWA. Noticeably Cooler with Lingering Shower Chances. Model guidance is in good agreement that the cutoff upper level low and associated moisture take it's time moving across the region through Thursday.
259 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Key Messages: - Much cooler through the end of the week turning seasonable for the weekend. COOLER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY: At 2 AM this morning, surface observations showed a cold front dissecting the forecast area along the Mississippi River. Temperatures fall below normal behind the cold front today thanks to an influx of northwesterly flow aloft.
As the trough axis swings to the east, expect more subsidence to drive in the wake & rain & storms should wind down by early evening. Lows will fall near normal in the low 70s, while patchy fog is again possible in the Pine Belt. /DC/ Current global guidance show a hot thermal ridge peaking over our CWA late Wednesday evening/Thursday morning ahead of a approaching cold front. To the west, a 595 dm high pressure system building across the SW CONUS. Additional showers and storms will be possible heading into the weekend as a cold front from the Ohio Valley digs further south towards the southeast U.
1237 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Hot and humid conditions persist - Isolated to scattered showers/storms possible Wednesday across portions of the Coastal Plains Mid to upper level high pressure system will continue to build aloft through the short-term period. A weak passing disturbance on the eastern periphery of the high will combine with slightly deeper moisture coming in from the Gulf to spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday across portions of the Coastal Plains. Highs tomorrow will range from the low 90s along the coast to near 105 across the west.
(Today through Thursday) Generally dry and quiet weather will prevail for the foreseeable future as high pressure remains in place and dry air overspreads the area. High temperatures will peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon through the short term, but with the lower dew points, heat indices will struggle to break into the triple digits.
Gradual warming trend to continue through the work week and into the weekend as high pressure builds in the desert southwest.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) The subtropical ridge has centered itself across far west TX, northern Mexico, and southern NM and will remain parked there through the short term period with very little change in strength/heights. High temperatures today look to be a couple degrees "cooler" on average compared to yesterday, but it will still be hot enough across the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and Big Bend to warrant another Heat Advisory for this area. Temperatures on Thursday appear to trend slightly warmer, and another Heat Advisory seems plausible for portions of the CWA.
353 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 High pressure will remain over the region for one more day. The next chance of rain comes late this week as a cold front moves into the Southeast and stalls.
1239 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (The rest of tonight) Scattered showers and storms continue to develop in advance of a cold front that currently stretches from extreme southeast Kansas to just north of the Tulsa metro and back into central OKlahoma.
Northwesterly gusts continue to peak in the 25-35 mph range, as temps currently range into the 70s west through the lower and mid 80s along/east of Highway 25. Current guidance is showing upper level ridge meandering over the southern Plains/Rockies during the next 3 days. Guidance does suggest the heaviest smoke particle concentration will occur over E/NE zones, as the ridge axis/lightest winds are expected in that area. Somewhat of a pattern change in store for this period as the upper ridge which has brought hot and dry conditions to the plains moves to the desert southwest.
High pressure expands from the southwest across the west resulting in increased dry, southwest flow and warmer temperatures.
06Z observations show a departing trough heading into Missouri with a subsequent ridge moving into the central plains and at the surface a 1020 mb high building into western Nebraska. HRRR and RAP smoke models have the bulk of the highest vertically integrated smoke values coming into central and eastern Kansas after sunrise and continuing through the afternoon. By early morning moisture profiles and warm air advection in the 700-850 mb levels suggest the outside chance of some elevated convection developing roughly east of the highway 183 corridor. Models suggest the highest temperatures would be from around Elkhart to Ashland with 105 potential in the cards. Decided to go with NBM 90th percentile highs on Thursday which would put much of the area around 100 with the highest temperatures along the Oklahoma border.
Not as hot Wednesday, and turning notably cooler Thursday into the weekend. Water vapor this afternoon shows a stout upper- level low swirling over the Dakotas, with a cold front downstream sparking convection toward the Mississippi River. Instead, coverage improves late tonight and again Wednesday afternoon as the leading cold front and trailing trough axis move through. This occurs as an upper-level ridge becomes established over the Four Corners and an active norther stream jet resides primarily to our north.
1211 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) Clear skies and north winds behind a cold front that passed through this morning has provided a slight cool down for the Panhandles today. High pressure aloft has been suppressed to our south, centered near the Rio Grande Valley, with a series of troughs traversing across central and northern CONUS. These troughs will deamplify as they move east, allowing the high to gradually build back towards the plains through Wednesday.
127 AM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Water vapor shows rather flat upper ridge over the western CONUS with distinct short wave moving east across western WY. At the surface, ridge covers the western Dakotas with chilly early morning temps down into the 40s, with some 30s in the Black Hills. For Thursday, upper ridge will amplify through the Rockies, with a weak trof crossing the Northern Plains. A narrow corridor of MLCAPE to around 1000J/kg expected to develop near and east of the Black Hills along/ahead of a surface trof. Guidance is trending "wetter" with this trof, although moisture should be mostly lacking and most areas will remain dry. Smoke will likely linger through the morning, but the passage of the surface trof should help to improve air quality somewhat during the afternoon.
Northwest winds will bring cooler, more stale air across the region overnight. KEY MESSAGES: - Heat wave ends today with the passage of a potent cold front. Surface analysis this afternoon shows a northeast-southeast oriented cold front draped over northwest MN across SD and into western NE, with the parent low pressure center a little north of KAXN. Some scattered showers may then linger into the daytime hours on Wednesday, mainly in western WI, but these would be rather benign and only be associated with wrap- around moisture on the backside of the departing cold front and its accompanying low pressure center. Skies will then gradually clear out Wednesday night onward as a Canadian high pressure airmass slides southeast into the Upper Midwest, taking control of the region's weather and bringing much cooler air to the region.
The center of a subtropical ridge, currently over Far West Texas will slowly migrate to the northeast today resulting in rising heights overhead.
A mid-level trough will continue shifting east over the area tonight, and additional showers and storms may develop as low level shear begins to increase during the morning hours ahead of a potential decaying MCS through the Ozarks/mid MS River Valley. Although a secondary/trailing band of convection may evolve along the actual synoptic cold front as it begins to shift southeastward into the Lower OH Valley late tomorrow afternoon, forecast soundings depict pronounced drying in the mid/upper- levels across our region in the wake of the late afternoon convective event, and aside from a few lingering showers prior to frontal passage, we do not foresee the development of additional precipitation during the morning hours Thursday.
Weak ridging will follow as a broad low sits over the north Pacific. This low will remain nearly stationary thus minimal change in the overall pattern through the weekend. With clearer skies inland, overnight temperatures will be cooler than normal in the 40s-50s.