Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Discussion: Heights will rise over the region as the upper level Eastern US trough lifts out and an upper level ridge edges east toward our area.
Dew point temperatures also in the mid 30s will be the saving grace from freezing temperatures in most locations, however there may some isolated pockets of freezing temperatures in areas where the dew point temperatures are hovering around 32 degrees.
225 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Cold front will move through eastern Montana this morning with an upper trough/low following it this afternoon and evening. The remainder of the High Wind Warning area has a 50-90 percent chance of reaching warning criteria today. Models have increased the probability of rain showers today and this evening as they have deepened the upper trough/low compared to earlier forecasts. Convective showers may also produce downbursts where wind gusts reach 60+ mph especially in the High Wind Warning area. The trough/low moves to the east late tonight which will diminish the winds and end the chance of rain showers.
Precip chances will be low (below 20%) for the western half of the region, with the highest likelihood of precip out east (20-40%).
/DL/ Generally quiet near term forecast as our region will see the impacts of a deep layer ridge keep seasonably cool conditions over our area. Such conditions combined with dry ground will allow for cooler temps overnight. Look for lower level flow to back and become out of the W/SW by afternoon and this will support warmer temps.
357 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 A large upper level low pressure system will remain over the northeastern United States today. High pressure builds in midweek with moderating temperatures afterwards.
233 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 High pressure will build slowly into the area from the west through mid week.
(Today and tonight) Another fairly quiet day is on tap as surface ridging from our west begins to build towards the southeast. Highs for today will be a touch warmer and in the upper 60s to low 70s.
235 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Quiet conditions will continue tonight as the upper ridge remains over High Plains and much of the Western CONUS. A upper trough is expected to move ashore over the Pacific Northwest tonight and move east across the Northwest CONUS. Temperatures are expected to be above freezing tonight with overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 80s. With this trough will come another cold front and breezy conditions during the overnight hours.
405 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 A trough will remain over the region through tonight.
At the surface, an area of high pressure over east Texas will move southeastward into the Gulf. Given the slightly warmer airmass that will move in during the day, low temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s, which is about ten degrees warmer than this morning.
315 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Morning fog will give way to a warmer day across the region with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
There is also a band of lake effect clouds over east central Lake Michigan that will begin moving eastward, corresponding with WSW flow developing in the low levels.
1229 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 WV imagery continues to show an upper level ridge of higher heights across the Rocky Mountain region extending from a high centered near the Four Corners. However, winds will strengthen as a weak surface boundary pushes through turning winds more westerly seeing gusts up to 20-30 mph in the lower valleys and up to 40+ mph in the upper elevation areas.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge axis will move more squarely overhead today resulting in a rise in thickness values and thus temperatures. At the same time, an upper level short wave trough will be dropping to the east-southeast from British Columbia into the northern Plains. This will result in surface cyclogenesis and pressure troughing in lee of the Rockies. As a result, the surface pressure gradient will tighten up leading to an increase in surface winds into the low-end of the breezy category. The combination of the increasing heights and stronger southwesterly downsloping winds will lead to a much warmer afternoon.
310 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 High pressure will build down from the northwest today.
1040 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure across eastern MT, with warm front stretching across most of the western Dakotas. Upper level analysis shows trough along the east coast, with ridging over the intermountain west and Rockies. In general, a warm and mostly dry week is expected across the region as ridging mostly remains across the western US/Rockies.
Evening satellite and radar imagery revealing clouds and showers along the leading edge of an upper trough pushing into eastern Oregon. A sprinkle is possible across the lower Treasure Valley as the line passes, but the chance for measurable amounts remains less than 10%.
1213 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) An upper-level ridge will remain steadfast across the area, keeping cooler north to northwesterly flow over our area through Tuesday morning.
1237 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (This evening through Tuesday night) Today and Tuesday will see mainly a transitory ridge passing over the region brining fair weather and warming temperatures. However, embedded within the upper level flow is a short wave trough that will eject into the plains on Tuesday.
1109 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Key messages: 1) Warmer tomorrow A very nice day across the region. a weak lee trough will develop out east. Mtns, and event mtn tops may be warmer than the center of the valleys as warm air advects in from aloft, keeping the mtns in the 30s.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will move across the area today and tonight.
1229 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) A large upper level low over the eastern half of the CONUS has been the culprit in abundant cloud cover and light rain/drizzle today. A mix of clouds and sun is expected tomorrow which should allow for afternoon highs 6 to 8 degrees warmer than today.
316 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 - Minimal chances for rain for this week - Seasonable temperatures for mid week with above normal temperatures for end of the week and the weekend Ridging is expected to build into the region today which will allow WAA to dominate for much of Tuesday. Areas of Central Kansas are likely to push the 80 degree mark depending on the speed in which the ridge builds into the region. This will keep temperatures up Tuesday night with most areas likely to remain in the low 50s or upper 40s.
225 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 A large upper level low pressure system will remain over the northeastern United States today. High pressure builds in midweek with moderating temperatures afterwards.
07Z water vapor imagery showed and amplified upper ridge centered over the four corners region and extending north into Saskatchewan. A closed upper low was moving through southern British Columbia with an upper trough axis extending into northern CA. Surface obs show high pressure over the southern and central plains with the central of the high over south TX.
High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 60s, with the highest values occurring where sunshine will be most prevalent. Skies will be mostly clear tonight, with low temperatures dipping into the lower 40s.
149 AM PDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Warmer and dry conditions through the rest of the work week.
High pressure centered over Texas combined with lower pressure over the western North Atlantic continue to drive cool and dry northerly breezes through the Florida Keys. Dewpoints are in the mid 50s near Ocean Reef, and in the lower 60s across the Lower Keys. Water vapor imagery highlights progression in the upper level pattern across the CONUS, specifically the long wave ridge brushing through the Rockies. The mid to upper level trough over the East will kick to the northeast as the ridge slides east.
300 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Despite the expansion of an expansive ridge into the area, stratus has held tough over much of the forecast area with clearing limited to the Saginaw Valley. As such, temperatures will remain tempered with highs once again ranging in the lower to mid 50s.
1053 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) High surface pressure settles across our area with our last day of below average temperatures as our upper flow transitions from an outgoing trough to an approaching ridge. South winds may start to pick up a few hours prior to sunrise, which may mix the air enough to maintain low temperatures well above freezing in the upper 30s to lower 40s. As our high pressure moves off to the southeast with a tightening pressure gradient across our area, south winds will increase becoming a bit breezy by Tuesday afternoon.
As 925-850mb flow shifts from north to west to southwest, the low clouds should become more scattered this evening into tonight.
This has allowed some patchy fog development due to radiational cooling, and there may be patchy frost as well where dewpoints are approaching or reaching the freezing mark but this doesn't seem widespread.
(Today) In a large scale ridging west/troughing east mid/upper level pattern, chilly conditions continued over much of the eastern lower-48. Temperatures across the Tennessee Valley ranged in the low/mid 50s with light winds. The slightly warmer than previously expected conditions are being helped by a persistent area of low/mid altitude clouds nearly unbroken in coverage from the Great Lakes to the FL Panhandle. This more of a winter like setup, the low clouds have helped inhibit the development of fog over our forecast area. Although the moisture feed should continue into the afternoon, slightly warmer temperatures are forecast as more sun breaks through, which should help break up the stratus deck as the day progresses.
the warmest temperatures of the week are expected today as a blend of NAM/GFS/UKMET 850mb temperatures supports high temperatures in the lower to upper 80s. With some modest pressure falls forecast ahead of an approaching cold front, we could see winds and gusts a little higher than currently forecast. Tonight, the cold front remains on track to move through the area after midnight with northwest winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
1213 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest and the upper level ridge over the southwestern U. Regardless, the upper level ridge will continue to result in higher thickness values over the FA leading to temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than previous days.
740 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 A trough will remain over the region through tonight.
643 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (Today and tonight) Another fairly quiet day is on tap as surface ridging from our west begins to build towards the southeast. Highs for today will be a touch warmer and in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Building high pressure and increasing subsidence will result in gradually improving sky conditions as we head into the afternoon. Discussion: Heights will rise over the region as the upper level Eastern US trough lifts out and an upper level ridge edges east toward our area.
954 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 High pressure will build slowly into the area from the west through mid week.
An upper level low moves into the Great Lakes tomorrow that will send a weak cold front into the area. There may be some daytime cooling in a few areas of southeastern New Mexico immediately behind the front during the day on Wednesday, but most locations will have to wait until tomorrow night to really experience any cooler temperatures so highs Wednesday will continue to be well above normal.
High pressure will remain the dominating influence overnight, and good radiational cooling with light winds and clear skies should allow for temps to fall into the lower 40s in a lot of locations.
628 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 A large upper level low pressure system will remain over the northeastern United States today. High pressure builds in midweek with moderating temperatures afterwards.
High pressure over our region has allowed some lingering Monsoonal moisture to seep back north over the last few days. This moisture intrusion will be short-lived, as the ridge is reinforced from the west and northwest heading into the remainder of the week. This is even stronger high pressure compared to what we are currently seeing and the trajectory will drive any remaining moisture back southward.
612 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (Today through Wednesday) The short term forecast is going to be a cooler forecast as it will feature temperatures that are a bit cooler than what we have experienced in a long time. Then moving into tonight, low temperatures are expected to be in mostly in the 50s, however, the lows in the Lower Rio Grande Valley are expected to be in the low 60s instead. While a mid-level ridge aloft will have some influence on the region, this mid-level ridge is expected to be weakened as a trough moves over the mid-west.
An upper ridge moves quickly across the region tonight, which will make for a dry and mild night with a steady wind at the surface and increasing middle and high clouds. An approaching upper trough will produce diffluent upper flow while a low level jet produce warm advection and convergence.
837 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 A large upper level low pressure system will remain over the northeastern United States today. High pressure builds in midweek with moderating temperatures afterwards.
A deep upper level system will enter the upper midwest and bring a trough across the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
(Today through Wednesday) The short term forecast is going to be a cooler forecast as it will feature temperatures that are a bit cooler than what we have experienced in a long time. Then moving into tonight, low temperatures are expected to be in mostly in the 50s, however, the lows in the Lower Rio Grande Valley are expected to be in the low 60s instead. While a mid-level ridge aloft will have some influence on the region, this mid-level ridge is expected to be weakened as a trough moves over the mid-west.
628 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (Tuesday through Wednesday) A gradual shift in the short-term will begin today, as the pressure gradient overhead begins to widen, and slight ridging moves into the region. However, as high pressure begins to gather its footing, these temperatures will begin to slightly climb.
High pressure begins to build in across the region this evening through Wednesday as the trough shifts to our east. This will lead to rain-free conditions and gradual warming trend through tomorrow with highs on Wednesday expected to be in the low to mid 70s.
629 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (Today) In a large scale ridging west/troughing east mid/upper level pattern, chilly conditions continued over much of the eastern lower-48. Temperatures across the Tennessee Valley ranged in the low/mid 50s with light winds. The slightly warmer than previously expected conditions are being helped by a persistent area of low/mid altitude clouds nearly unbroken in coverage from the Great Lakes to the FL Panhandle. This more of a winter like setup, the low clouds have helped inhibit the development of fog over our forecast area. Although the moisture feed should continue into the afternoon, slightly warmer temperatures are forecast as more sun breaks through, which should help break up the stratus deck as the day progresses.
* A weak cold front will move across the region late Tuesday night/Wednesday.
557 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Morning fog will give way to a warmer day across the region with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Western Minnesota, particularly along the Buffalo Ridge, could make a run at 70 today with low to mid 60s elsewhere.
940 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 A trough will remain over the region through tonight.
Expect mostly sunny skies and light winds today with high pressure overhead.
605 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge axis will move more squarely overhead today resulting in a rise in thickness values and thus temperatures. At the same time, an upper level short wave trough will be dropping to the east-southeast from British Columbia into the northern Plains. This will result in surface cyclogenesis and pressure troughing in lee of the Rockies. As a result, the surface pressure gradient will tighten up leading to an increase in surface winds into the low-end of the breezy category. The combination of the increasing heights and stronger southwesterly downsloping winds will lead to a much warmer afternoon.
604 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Upper trough extended from off the New England coast to the Carolinas. At the surface, high pressure centered over Texas was controlling the weather across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Early morning temperatures ranged from the mid 40s to lower 50s, except for the New Orleans Metro Area where the warmer waters of Lake Pontchartrain were holding temperatures near 60. High pressure will slide eastward to the Atlantic Coast by Wednesday afternoon, eventually turning low level flow onshore by Wednesday afternoon.
552 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 A trough will remain over the region through tonight.
Aforementioned high pressure will move to the east during the day with winds turning around to the west/southwest. Upper level flow this morning is rather amplified with ridging centered over the desert southwest and subsequent downstream troughing over the eastern CONUS.
614 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 High pressure will build down from the northwest today.
632 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (Today through Wednesday night) It has been a bit warmer this morning than 24 hours ago as temperatures have remained about 10 degrees warmer, with no concern for frost or freeze. Today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday as highs look to top out in the lower 80s.
Water vapor shows a ridge aloft over the Four Corners area with dry air over Colorado. It also shows a trough moving through Glacier National Park with a stream of upper level moisture ahead of it. The aforementioned ridge will dominate today's weather as the subsident flow will keep conditions dry with mostly sunny skies. Meanwhile, the trough will move east-southeastward throughout the day today and will begin to increase westerly flow aloft. Tonight, a cold front will move through the I-25 corridor and eastern plains bringing gusty northerly winds.
However, despite the full insolation expected today, continued northerly will allow highs to only reach the low/mid 70s, which is around 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of the year. Highs will hang around the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday will be blustery and cooler behind a cold front. As an upper trof moves across the area, am expecting sct showers. Behind the front, temps will be cooler on Wednesday. NBM as usual was a bit too robust so mixed in some NBMEXP and ConsShort to bring the higher end winds down a bit. KEY MESSAGES: - Mainly dry conditions expected with temperatures remaining above normal Our region will see predominantly northwesterly flow aloft with upper ridging in place across the western CONUS while upper troughing sets up across the eastern CONUS and Great Lakes through the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. As the period starts Wednesday night, some leftover showers will be possible in some of our eastern zones as the upper trough departs into the Great Lakes.
Despite the expansion of an expansive ridge into the area, stratus has held tough over much of the forecast area with clearing limited to the Saginaw Valley. As such, temperatures will remain tempered with highs once again ranging in the lower to mid 50s.
546 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 High pressure will remain over the region for the next couple of days.
Light west to southwesterly flow has helped keep morning temperatures above freezing, but chilly temperatures have fallen into the mid to upper 30s for many. As far as temperatures on Wednesday, increased WAA ahead of the cold front will allow temperatures to warm a few degrees compared to Tuesday.
/NEW/ Update: Optimal radiational cooling conditions allowed several sites to dip into the mid/upper 30s this morning, although most locations will begin the day in the low/mid 40s. However, this low humidity may culminate in the return of elevated fire weather conditions as wind speeds increase heading into Wednesday.
406 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 WV imagery continues to show an upper level ridge of higher heights across the Rocky Mountain region extending from a high centered near the Four Corners. However, winds will strengthen as a weak surface boundary pushes through turning winds more westerly seeing gusts up to 20-30 mph in the lower valleys and up to 40+ mph in the upper elevation areas. Otherwise, once the disturbance pushes further into the upper Great Plains, expect increasing convergence aloft to build the ridge back in from the south for the CWA for Wednesday onward into the weekend.
There is also a band of lake effect clouds over east central Lake Michigan that will begin moving eastward, corresponding with WSW flow developing in the low levels. Low level warm air advection ahead of this feature (850 mb temps reaching 6-7C) will help boost temperatures to around 60 or the low 60s, making for one of the warmer days of the last couple weeks.
330 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 An approaching system over the Canadian Rockies will plow into and temporarily deform the northern apex of the strong ridge of high pressure aloft. The mid level thermal ridge ahead of this feature should allow for both a good amount of heating and mixing today. Temperatures today should not be inhibited too much by the high cloudiness and reach or exceed those of yesterday by a degree or two in most areas. Slightly cooler air aloft in the wake of the system should drop high temperatures several degrees in all but the far Southwest part of the CWA on Wednesday. However cooler this may be.
(Rest of Today) Surface analysis this morning shows high pressure encompassing much of the eastern US, with a main focus centered over eastern TX stretching over the SE US. To our east, a broad area of low pressure associated with a weak trough is lingering off the Atlantic coast.
628 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (Today through Wednesday) With a high amplitude upper level ridge to our west and deep trough to the east the flow over Texas is from the north-northwest.
A small ridge over the Northern Plains will bring us high temperatures above normal today, especially over central/western Minnesota and the Dakotas.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will move across the area today and tonight. Models disagree on the placement of the ridge with the ECWMF being faster than the other models with the ridging along central Lake Michigan into eastern Illinois while the slower GFS has the ridge axis to the Mississippi River at this time.
849 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 High pressure will build down from the northwest today.
Temperatures will warm up tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 80s under sunny skies.
628 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 - Minimal chances for rain for this week - Seasonable temperatures for mid week with above normal temperatures for end of the week and the weekend Ridging is expected to build into the region today which will allow WAA to dominate for much of Tuesday. Areas of Central Kansas are likely to push the 80 degree mark depending on the speed in which the ridge builds into the region. This will keep temperatures up Tuesday night with most areas likely to remain in the low 50s or upper 40s. The remainder of the CWA may not see much of a difference or just a few degrees cooler Wednesday after the front comes through.