Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
CIMSS MIMIC precipitable water product clearly highlights the location of a cold front slowly drifting southward across the Florida Peninsula. Recent hourly dew point observations also reflect this feature, with readings coming in at Tampa to the north of the front in the upper 40s, meanwhile just to the south in Fort Myers, readings are in the lower 70s.
Below average temperatures will continue today into tomorrow before a gradually warm up by the end of the week as ridge advances from the west. Based on surface observations and satellite depiction, the center of the low is currently situated 250 miles north of Ottawa, Canada. With strong northwest flow over Lake Erie (buoys measuring 30-40mph) and weak ridging over eastern Ohio promoting west/south-west flow, narrow bands of rain showers (only 25-30 miles in width) have been passing through counties north of Pittsburgh due to strong convergence. Isolated rain showers may develop south of Pittsburgh this afternoon as a surge of cooler air descends south off Lake Michigan and mixes with established moisture over central Ohio. Below normal temperatures will continue into the upcoming work week as the mentioned upper low remains nearly stationary over Quebec/Ontario.
1023 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Cold high pressure will build into the area through Monday. Temperatures are on the rise after a chilly morning with low in the low to mid-40s, and isolated pockets of mid to upper 30s. Nwly flow will continue through the lower levels supporting dry conditions and cool daytime highs in the mid to upper 60s (~10 degrees below normal). Expect similar overnight lows in the lower 40s (with upper 30s likely at our cooler spots). An upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the northern Great Lakes through late week.
604 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Through tonight: Another dry and seasonably cool day is on tap as strong surface ridging remains anchored across the Deep South.
The center of the high was situated to the SW of the FA and was providing clear skies and light winds acrs AR. The aforementioned sfc rds wl cont to settle southward today, allowing W/SW winds to return, along with warmer temps.
While the overall upper pattern will generally remain unchanged, southwest flow above the surface should help promote warming and we should see highs about 5-10 degrees warmer this afternoon as compared to yesterday.
If a stronger shower or even a storm were to occur this afternoon, think it would be over the far southern Sangres where the highest probability for CAPE values in the 200-400 range will be located.
Upper low spins over the Great Lakes with associated upper trough over the eastern 1/2 of the U. Cooler and drier but shallow airmass will hold over the region into early week while abundant upper moisture continues to stream over the Gulf for cool dry low levels and thick cirrus shield overhead. Mid to late week, the upper remnants of E Pac tropical systems to move into the W Gulf as next upper low swings from the Plains States thru the Great Lakes region with series of upper impulses moving thru the N Gulf Coast. At the surface, the old frontal boundary over the FL Straits is expected to move back Nward over the FL Peninsula as a warm front with temps, moisture and rain chances increasing quickly.
A weather pattern change will bring cooler conditions and periodic breezes to the area after Monday.
Upper trough will continue to rotate to our north but temps should warm up slightly on Monday into the 70s with a tighter surface pressure gradient, allowing for winds to be 10 to 15 mph during the day Monday.
Cold front well offshore early this morning. This has brought morning temperatures down into the lower 40s across the western Midlands, and into the middle 40s elsewhere. Today and Tonight: High pressure dominates the weather.
Weak cold front sliding into south-central FL this morning with both cooler/drier air in its wake. Advertising cooler than normal temps this afternoon for most, with U70s to around 80 north/west of I-4 and L80s southward, except possibly some M80s for Martin and southern St. NW/N winds up to around 15 kts behind southward progressing cold front, diminishing to 6-12 kts tonight. The cooler northerly wind component opposing the warmer northward moving Gulf Stream may produce choppier seas into tonight. Considerable cloudiness will continue in the wake of a passing cold front, but generally VFR.
825 AM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023 *** Glasgow radar remains down due to hardware upgrade and replacement until roughly October 16th *** MORNING UPDATE: With high pressure dominating eastern Montana, no major changes were made with this morning's updates. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large ridge over the western half of Canada and the CONUS with the axis running north through the Intermountain West and into Alberta. Father west another trough is moving into the Gulf of Alaska and just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Today into Monday night: As the ridge moves into and across the region conditions should remain dry and clear and gradually warm as the ridge gains more influence. Meanwhile, the cool core NE Pacific trough should move over the Pacific Northwest by Monday.
541 AM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023 The short term forecast period is dominated by high pressure and a dry air mass. Monday, the ridge is forecast to begin to flatten as a trough moves into the PACNW, but conditions should remain very similar to Sunday with temperatures maybe varying a few degrees. Be sure to get out and enjoy these beautiful autumn days! A change in the weather is coming as a strong cold front is set to move into the area.
609 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023 (Today through Monday night) The Panhandles will be on the eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge through this short-term period. This, combined with southwesterly 850mb winds which will advect in a layer of warm air aloft from the Desert Southwest, will bring warmer than average temperatures to the Panhandles.
Key Message: Today will be a pleasant day with partly to mostly cloud skies, and somewhat warmer temperatures. Highs today could be a good bit warmer than yesterday, but with cloud cover, prefer a more conservative approach of the NBM with upper 50s northeast to upper 60s southwest. Key Messages: Areas of frost/freezing are possible Monday night. Lows in the lower to mid 30s are generally forecast in most parts of the CWA.
Mid level short wave energy will drop down the back side of a broad upper level trough that is in place across the eastern US. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side again today with afternoon highs mostly in the mid to upper 50s. Upper low continues to meander around the Ontario/Quebec border, with a broad H5 trough stretched across the eastern CONUS.
As the slow moving ridge finally moves over the Great Basin, onshore wind are able to return today.
A weak cold front will pass today, resulting in high temperatures falling from near 80 today to the 70s Monday.
613 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023 As of 3 AM Sunday morning, a deep midlevel trough was positioned across the Great Lakes region with northerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Surface ridging was sliding to the southeast of the area, allowing southerly low-level flow to return to the forecast area. This will result in warmer temperatures this afternoon with highs returning to the 70s/near 80. Surface ridging will build into the forecast area Monday night, yielding light winds and clear skies.
613 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Broad troughing sits over most of the eastern third of the country with a little reinforcing pinwheel low moving across the northeastern part of the CWA early this morning with a few transient high clouds.
Highs will top out in the lower 50s in WC and central OH and around 60 degrees in the Tri-State/N KY. Upper low continues to meander around the Ontario/Quebec border, with a broad H5 trough stretched across the eastern CONUS.
912 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Pleasant Sunday morning across the Sunshine State as the cold front is currently over Central FL and high pressure continues to build with drier air and cooler temps in place. Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations are showing temperatures in the lower 60s to near 70 at this time and persistent upper level clouds. Cold front continues to slowly move S through the SE Gulf waters as high pressure builds into the region early this morning with tightening pressure gradient to produce N winds 15-20kts and seas 2-4 ft early this morning with Small craft exercise caution conditions. Winds and seas slowly subside this afternoon through Monday as high pressure weakens and holds in the region.
625 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023 An upper level low pressure system centered over Quebec will bring some lake effect showers today into tonight, especially over southwest Lower Michigan and far northern Indiana.
409 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023 1) Temperatures will be warmer in the upper 60s to mid 70s today as the wind turns to the west-southwest ahead of another cold front. 2) The cold front will move through Missouri and Illinois tonight, and temperatures will be colder again in the low to mid 60s on Monday behind the front.
Ridging aloft will continue the trend of dry conditions and above normal temperatures through Monday. Pacific troughing then moves in and brings unsettled conditions and slightly below average temperatures for the remainder of the workweek.
Cold front has moved well south of the CWA early this morning with a much cooler and drier airmass in place.
A very dry airmass will accompany the high pressure ridging, and with little to no forcing mechanisms, no precipitation is expected through the period. Afternoon relative humidity values will again plummet this afternoon, into the low to mid 20s for most areas, but into the upper teens in some locations. High temperatures this afternoon will be several degrees below normal, topping out in the low to mid 70s for most locations. A little warmer on Monday, with highs rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
As of 3 AM Sunday morning, a deep midlevel trough was positioned across the Great Lakes region with northerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Surface ridging was sliding to the southeast of the area, allowing southerly low-level flow to return to the forecast area. This will result in warmer temperatures this afternoon with highs returning to the 70s/near 80. Surface ridging will build into the forecast area Monday night, yielding light winds and clear skies.
146 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Upper level ridging persists across the region for another 24 hours before an upper level disturbance begins its approach Monday evening.
Early afternoon satellite imagery was showing an amplified ridge of high pressure over SE Idaho with the ridge axis positioned near the Wyoming border. Looking upstream, an amplifying low pressure trough was advancing toward the NW coastal waters. The operational models show the trough evolving into a negatively tilted wave as it reaches the coast Monday morning and then advancing slowly inland Monday afternoon. The NAM and to a lesser extent the GFS are highlighting the potential for late afternoon and evening convection advancing into SE Idaho on the leading edge of the incoming trough segment. The development of precipitation becomes a bit more organized as the trough segment pivots through the area overnight with both models highlighting different areas for the best accumulation potential.
300 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Cold high pressure will build into the area through Monday. Temperatures are on the rise after a chilly morning with low in the low to mid-40s, and isolated pockets of mid to upper 30s. Nwly flow will continue through the lower levels supporting dry conditions and cool daytime highs in the mid to upper 60s (~10 degrees below normal). Expect similar overnight lows in the lower 40s (with upper 30s likely at our cooler spots). Settled within blocked flow over the northern latitudes, a deep upper low (1-2 STD below normal) north of the Great Lakes will relax a bit midweek, with dry westerly flow its southern periphery remaining across our region.
However, with 850mb temps below freezing and favorable north to northeast winds streaming across the warm Lake Superior we are seeing some lake effect showers along the South Shore. There is still some question as to how much cloud cover will linger and insulate the region tonight but the latest high res guidance is pointing to high probability (greater than 90%) of below freezing temps for the Arrowhead. Weather pattern through the week: The retrograding low will stall out along the border of Quebec and Ontario as it runs into the ridging built across Manitoba. With the proximity of the Low we are still maintaining some low chances (15- 30%) of precipitation across the Arrowhead and into the NW WI. As the week continues the Low will weakens as a slightly anomalous High pressure builds across central Manitoba.
Weak high pressure ridge axis settles south into the region and expect much below normal temps in the dry air mass (PWATs less than 0. Min temps expected in the lower/middle 40s across inland SE GA, mid/upper 40s across inland NE FL, lower 50s along the St.
The ridge of high pressure continues through tonight and tomorrow morning. Tomorrow southerly winds start to increase ahead of the next cold front. Recent model forecasts have trended weaker for the winds at lower elevations, so the stronger southwesterly to southerly winds will mainly affect the higher elevations.
(This afternoon through Monday night) The quiescent weather continues with upper-level ridging slowly building back into the region. Aided by southeasterly return flow and increasing heights, temperatures this afternoon will be nearly 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Most locations can expect temperatures in the lower 50s. Temperatures warm a few degrees as the ridge continues to slide east and thicknesses increase.
(This evening through Monday) Temperatures have climbed into the lower 80s across much of West Central Texas this afternoon. Fairly weak mainly zonal flow aloft across the Plains for Monday, helping a weak lee trough at the surface develop. Highs will be a little warmer for the afternoon with temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 80s.
Upper-level ridge remains overhead Today and Tomorrow, leading to above average temperatures and dry conditions across our area. Temperatures overnight tonight will be cool, and with both light winds and clear skies, the valleys are expected to dip below freezing again at around 30 degrees. However, given the slightly warmer temps today and the observations from the previous few nights, we are still expecting to avoid that major freeze in the San Luis valley for now. The plains will climb into the low-80s while most of the rest of the area will sit in the 70s.
An upper level high pressure ridge will maintain warm dry and sunny weather today, with highs reaching the 80s at many lower valley locations. Clouds will increase across southeast Oregon Monday morning and southwest Idaho Monday afternoon as a Pacific cold front approaches.
With light winds overnight and a 37F dew point right now at DDC , weâll side with the middle ground NBM which is much closer to the 25th or even 5th percentile NBM overnight low, than the higher end of the curve which suggests low 50s for Tonight's lows.
(This evening through Monday) Temperatures have climbed into the lower 80s across much of West Central Texas this afternoon. Fairly weak mainly zonal flow aloft across the Plains for Monday, helping a weak lee trough at the surface develop. Highs will be a little warmer for the afternoon with temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 80s. Temperatures will be above normal midweek, and appreciably cooler by the end of the week.
Should see mostly clear skies by later evening and early tonight, which will allow for lows into the low to mid-30s given light winds. Mid and high level clouds are likely to increase from the northeast on Monday given a slow moving low pressure system just south of James Bay in Canada. High temps will remain below normal given the broad troughing pattern over the region.
Welcome cool down today continues with cooler temps and a chance of rain Monday.
221 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023 *** Glasgow radar remains down due to hardware upgrade and replacement until roughly October 16th *** AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: High pressure is influencing much of the western US as noted by the lack of cloud coverage from visible imagery in this area. This is thanks to an upper-level ridge that that has been dominating much of the West's dry and above- average weather. Though most locations are expected to have highs in the 60 and 70s throughout northeast Montana, the lower elevations along near the Musselshell River and Petroleum County have a 30-60% chance of high temperatures surpassing 80F. This will begin to change from Monday night as the upper-level trough off the Pacific Northwest digs toward the central Rockies.
Below average temperatures will continue today into tomorrow before a gradually warm up by the end of the week as ridge advances from the west. Based on surface observations and satellite depiction, the center of the low is currently situated 250 miles north of Ottawa, Canada. With strong northwest flow over Lake Erie (buoys measuring 30-40mph) and weak ridging over eastern Ohio promoting west/south-west flow, bands of rain showers passing through counties north of Pittsburgh due to strong convergence. Isolated rain showers may develop south of Pittsburgh this afternoon as a surge of cooler air descends south off Lake Michigan and mixes with established moisture over central Ohio. Below normal temperatures will continue into the upcoming work week as the mentioned upper low remains nearly stationary over Quebec/Ontario.
Tomorrow will be a tad bit warmer than the previous few days as the trough keeping us cool slowly makes it way northeastward. Temperatures will be in the low 80s for the majority of the region.
128 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023 An upper level low pressure system centered over Quebec will bring some lake effect showers into tonight, especially over southwest Lower Michigan and far northern Indiana.
Satellite looks clear over much of the high plains this afternoon, with clouds meandering west through Minnesota. As a quasi-ridge sets up over the central US, our days will be quiet and dry but temperatures will remain cool. Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s today as we advect a little bit warmer air into the area, and back into the 50s tomorrow.
A blocked Conus flow pattern continues this afternoon with high amplitude ridging centered over the Rockies and a deep, cold core cyclone wobbling across the Great Lakes. While this configuration would typically portend warm, quiet weather over the Southwest, an active subtropical jet and embedded disturbances undercutting the western ridge were supporting forced ascent acting on modest midlevel moisture profiles. Thereafter, strong Pacific jet energy will break into the NW Conus as the western hemisphere blocking pattern starts to realign. Remaining on the anti-cyclonic side of the jet will ensure dry weather, though H5 heights eroding to around 576dm and Great Basin surface pressure rises aiding cooler air filtering south will result in temperatures retreating close to the seasonal normal.
High pressure settling into the Midwest will lead to clearing skies and light winds tonight, causing temps to quickly fall into the 30s. For Monday night, lows in the lower to mid 30s are generally forecast in most parts of the CWA and frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed.
Broad troughing sits over most of the eastern third of the country with a little reinforcing pinwheel low moving across the northeastern part of the CWA early this morning with a few transient high clouds.
(This evening through Monday) After a chilly start this morning, warmer temperatures have returned to the area this afternoon, with readings in the upper 70s and low 80s. Mid-level temps warm a bit further tomorrow which should allow for highs to push into the low to mid 80s (upper 80s across our Texas counties) by tomorrow afternoon.
346 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Low pressure will remain to our north through Monday with mainly dry conditions persisting and near seasonable temperatures.
The period starts off with an upper low/block developing over southeast Canada.
Northwest winds behind the boundary will bring in another shot of cooler air which will postpone the warm up by another day.
High pressure will settle over the area for the next few days.
Afternoon high temperatures will range from the low to mid 70s in AR to the upper 70s to the low 80s in OK. (Tonight through Sunday) A weak cold front will slide through the area tonight, stalling near the Red River for much of the daytime hours Monday. As this cold front is very weak, it's only impacts will be some very minimal cooling and a shift in the wind direction to northerly.
1146 AM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023 The short term forecast period is dominated by high pressure and a dry air mass. Monday, the ridge is forecast to begin to flatten as a trough moves into the PACNW, but conditions should remain very similar to Sunday with temperatures maybe varying a few degrees. Be sure to get out and enjoy these beautiful autumn days! A change in the weather is coming as a strong cold front is set to move into the area.
Synoptically, an upper low over the Great Lakes Region continues to spin and upper trough remains in place over Eastern US. The associated cold front is slowly moving southward across our region, currently located over the southern part of the state.
1229 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023 1) Temperatures will be warmer in the upper 60s to mid 70s today as the wind turns to the west-southwest ahead of another cold front. 2) The cold front will move through Missouri and Illinois tonight, and temperatures will be colder again in the low to mid 60s on Monday behind the front.
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Cold high pressure will build into the area through Monday. Temperatures are on the rise after a chilly morning with low in the low to mid-40s, and isolated pockets of mid to upper 30s. Nwly flow will continue through the lower levels supporting dry conditions and cool daytime highs in the mid to upper 60s (~10 degrees below normal). Expect similar overnight lows in the lower 40s (with upper 30s likely at our cooler spots). Settled within blocked flow over the northern latitudes, a deep upper low (1-2 STD below normal) north of the Great Lakes will relax a bit midweek, with dry westerly flow its southern periphery remaining across our region.
1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023 (Today and tonight) Clear skies and southwest surface winds will lead to temperatures over 10 degrees warmer today compared to yesterday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to the mid-80s.
908 AM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Ridging aloft will continue the trend of dry conditions and above normal temperatures through Monday. Pacific troughing then moves in and brings unsettled conditions and slightly below average temperatures for the remainder of the workweek.
1126 AM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Concerns remain slim to none over the next 36 hours as high pressure will continue to bring some delightful fall weather with mild days, cool nights and little cloud cover.
A relatively 'cold' morning will become exceptionally comfortable this afternoon with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. /LCP/ Through tonight: Another dry and seasonably cool day is on tap as strong surface ridging remains anchored across the Deep South.
Temperatures are forecast to sink back down into the low to mid 40s tonight-- which will be warmer than last night, however, it is still around 5-10 degrees cooler than normal low temperatures for this time of year (53-54 degrees). As high pressure continues to influence the TN Valley, clear skies continue in addition to light winds overnight.
233 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Upper level ridging persists across the region for another 24 hours before an upper level disturbance begins its approach Monday evening.
1252 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023 Key Points: - Temperatures warm today before another punch of cooler air late this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds (~15-25 MPH) are anticipated ahead of the cooler air's arrival.