Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
325 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 High pressure provides dry weather while low dew points make for a comfortable afternoon. High pressure today offers pleasant summer weather; low dew points and highs in the low 80s. A broad trough over the Central Plains this morning arrives overhead, locally, Saturday morning. The 00z HREF brings a surface warm front well north into the forecast area, which aligns well with the marginal risk outlined by the SPC. The cold front looks to move through near sunset, after which the severe weather risk would conclude.
1121 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Long wave western NOAM ridge will slowly shift east in the period with semi-active NW flow over the region through much of the period.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Mid-level ridge will continue to build eastward over the southern high plains with heights increasing slowly through the next few days. The other story for mainly this afternoon will be a round of storms developing over the NM high terrain to the west and pivoting eastward around the northern periphery of the ridge.
106 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 Persistent low pressure over the eastern United States will maintain periodic chances for scattered showers and storms through much of the next seven days. Showers and storms along/ahead of the front should be largely east of PGH by this afternoon and continue to diminish from west to east as warmer air moves in aloft capping further convection. Broad eastern CONUS trough will remain in place for the bulk of the period.
Otherwise, expect mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms along the sea breeze, piedmont trough, and any resultant outflows with convection mostly ending during the evening. Highs today will reach the low to mid 90s with apparent temps just short of advisory criteria. Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 70s.
Otherwise, broad upper troughing and daytime instability will be the main forcing mechanisms for activity across the region today.
(Today and tonight) The upper-level ridge will slightly weaken, but remain steadfast over the area today causing continued hot and dry conditions across West Central Texas. Slightly above-normal afternoon highs are expected to reach into the 90s today, with overnight lows only falling into the lower to mid 70s.
A broad ridge remains across the Pacific northwest and western Canada with an odd smaller scale low trapped under the ridge over the northern Rockies.
High pressure will extend across the southern half of the Florida peninsula through the week as a front gradually moves southward across the southeastern US.
Given the lack of development yesterday and a similar set up showing on short term models, have gone a little below guidance and on the lower end of precipitation chances. but with the expected cloud cover, should remain generally in the lower 90s. The ridge is still centered in the central Gulf with additional ridging to the west over Texas and New Mexico.
Get out and enjoy it because this is obviously cooler than normal for the beginning of July.
1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 (This evening through Friday) Late this afternoon, a weak cold front has moved to near I-20, with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along the boundary. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. The first is across our southeast counties, where moisture will be a bit higher and upper level ridging a bit weaker. A weak disturbance is forecast to track across the South Plains, on the northeast periphery of the ridge.
High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 70s except 5 to 10 degrees cooler along the Lake Michigan shore.
(Today through Saturday) Alabama will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over Texas. Most areas will see highs in the lower 90s today and Friday with heat indices 95-100.
Models are also showing a chance for showers with the warm air advection and eventual trough passage. The GFS and ECMWF have consistently shown lower end precip chances, though the latest ECMWF run has shifted a bit north with the higher precipitable water values, now just clipping the southern forecast area.
Otherwise, high pressure will be the main influence in today's weather, providing quiet conditions. Winds will be light from the high's influence. Sunshine will boost temperatures to seasonable levels in the lower and middle 80s. An upper trough will approach the area from the west during the night. Warm advection ahead of the trough will generate lift and some showers and thunderstorms. However, the forcing doesn't look that impressive, with better forcing arriving after 12Z with the upper trough itself and a surface front. Broad troughing centered over central Canada is expected to persist through the long range. In tandem with a ridge over the Rocky Mountains, the position of this trough favors generally west to northwesterly flow aloft across Indiana.
(Today through Saturday) As we wrap up the week, we are in for a change as the mid-level ridge will be pinched southward by an amplifying trough moving into southeast US. The deepening trough will remain over the southeastern US as we move into the weekend. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s.
More of the same today and Friday, the ridge is slightly suppressed to our southeast and s/wv activity continues to our north. Red Flag Warnings for today and Friday as a result and the Excessive Heat Warning for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon will continue. This largely due to a positional adjustment of the ridge. Speaking of moisture, just enough moisture from convection around the periphery of the high and Gulf of California seeps due to the thermal low, will import limited PW for mentionable, yet isolated high-based threats in the coming days.
Early this morning a a broad upper ridge extended across northern Mexico eastward across TX. A minor H5 trough was rounding the upper ridge and will move east across the central Plains this morning. At the surface, a warm front extended from central OK, northwest into southeast CO. A strong to severe complex of storms across southeast CO and western KS will shift southeast along the theta-e/instability axis which was located along and north of the surface warm front. The combination of weak DCVA ahead of the H5 trough and isentropic lift on the northeast side of the theta-e axis may provide enough ascent for scattered showers and few thunderstorms to develop around sunrise.
Temperatures have already cooled into the upper 70s to lower 80s as of midnight and by sunrise most locations should bottom out in the lower and middle 70s. The overall weather pattern will not change much to end out the week with the upper level ridge axis remaining near the Four Corners region.
Rain chances every day through the weekend with cooler high temperatures near 80 degrees. Potential for severe storms Saturday with the highest risk south of I-44. Another MCS is expected to make the southeastern trek through KS and OK again Friday associated with a mid-level trough.
With the upslope flow at the lower levels, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible near the mountains and foothills this afternoon and evening, with some isolated convection over SE MT as well.
118 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 A weak cold front crosses today. A weak cold front will move across the region today. Dry weather can then be expected for Friday night with slightly cooler overnight lows. This system brings another cold front towards the area, with precipitation spreading into the CWA ahead of the front by Saturday evening. Temperatures will be quite warm ahead of the cold front, likely reaching mid to upper 80s in the lowlands and 70s to mid 80s along the mountains on Saturday.
Highs will be back in the 80s for most and pushing towards the 90 degree mark for parts of the lower Snake Plain and Magic Valley. While the best chances for storms look to be confined to the higher elevations in the Southern Hills, Eastern Highlands, and Central Mountains, a few could make their way into part of the Snake Plain this evening.
The Natural State wl rmn along the NErn periphery of an upper ridge, centered over the SWrn U.
Shower and thunderstorm potential will continue Saturday morning through Saturday night as the cold front shifts to the southeast. As the cold front shifts southeast, it will interact with an area with MUCAPE values greater than 2500 J/kg and 25-35 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, providing support for isolated strong to severe storms. The greatest potential for the highest shower and thunderstorm coverage will be across southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois. MMG/Glass Increasingly cyclonic flow associated with a deepening/broadening upper level trof from central Canada south-southeastward into the TN/OH Valleys will help push the advancing cold front through the remainder of southeast MO and southern IL on Saturday night.
Rain chances are forecast to decrease tonight as high pressure begins to build aloft from the west, then isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms return to the forecast on Saturday due to enough leftover moisture. Lows tonight will be in the 70s areawide, but warmer temperatures return on Saturday with highs ranging from the upper 80s along the coast to near 103 over portions of the Brush Country.
Along and south of the Highway 50 corridor the air mass will be drier and more stable. Saturday, as high pressure begins to build up from the desert southwest drier and more stable conditions will expand from central NV up across most of northern NV.
612 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper-level ridge will slightly weaken, but remain steadfast over the area today causing continued hot and dry conditions across West Central Texas. Slightly above-normal afternoon highs are expected to reach into the 90s today, with overnight lows only falling into the lower to mid 70s.
TONIGHT: Lingering showers or storms should move out with the departing inverted trough to our south by mid evening.
Either way, with high humidity and highs in the lowers 90s is gonna continue feel warm outside so take pertinent precautions.
Key Messages: * Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the High Plains today. * Cooler temperatures are expected to continue today and through the weekend.
631 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 (Today and tonight) Thunderstorms are expected to move off the High Plains, making their way into northwestern Oklahoma by early this morning.
The highest chances are from Winter Ridge east in central & northeast Lake County.
The low-level ridge axis remains shunted south/east of ECFL. The low-level ridge axis remains south/east of the local waters.
1) Dry conditions will continue through the morning hours 2) Increasing chances of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms this afternoon through the overnight hours tonight The first portion of the day today will be dry and sunny, under an area of high pressure. Instability should increase this evening into the overnight hours, with most-unstable CAPE values on the order of 500 J/kg, and perhaps closer to the 1000 J/kg per the higher end model guidance - still pretty meager instability. With the higher Pwats, a wetting rainfall should occur for a good portion of the region, with forecast rainfall amounts between one-tenth and a half inch for most locations. Passing weak ridge with northwesterly boundary layer flow Sat night will allow for over night lows in the 50s.
Sunnier conditions should help support warmer temperatures today, though a southward moving front will likely help keep temps north of the Highway 50 corridor slightly cooler. The front/trough will likely push in this morning, with a steadier easterly component into the southeast mountains already in place prior to the afternoon hours. Dewpoints will remain in the mid to upper 50s, quite possibly around 60 in spots, especially as the front will likely help to reinforce this low level moisture.
High pressure remains offshore, with increasing onshore flow.
523 AM MDT Fri Jul 7 2023 Showers finally ended over the Elkhead mountains early this morning as the mid-level short wave trough moving over the central Rockies shifted to the High Plains. Models were consistent in building a shallow ridge over the Great Basin today in the wake of the previously mentioned disturbance. Highs will continue to run just a bit warmer than normal and pretty close to what has been observed over the past few days.
635 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging remains centered near El Paso early this morning with a broad zone of modest WNW flow aloft set to persist over the High Plains through tonight.
643 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today, some with locally heavy rainfall, as a cold front from the west crosses the region in the afternoon and evening. A cold front, currently extending from the upper Saint Lawrence valley into Ohio and Kentucky will move east today, reaching the I-81 corridor (roughly) by midday. Shortly after, a negative tilted trough over the Great Lakes moves in setting off another round of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms.
Temperatures east of the Divide will also average 5 to 10 degrees cooler. Some models show a weak upper level low moving in from the west, which may help enhance shear somewhat.
620 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Mid-level ridge will continue to build eastward over the southern high plains with heights increasing slowly through the next few days. The other story for mainly this afternoon will be a round of storms developing over the NM high terrain to the west and pivoting eastward around the northern periphery of the ridge.
605 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 Corrected Previous Discussion Section to 4 AM Version Prevailing northerly flow in the wake of a cold frontal passage affords a drier environment today. Thermal trough, characterized by 850 mb temperatures of around 12C, settles into the region today.
433 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 Key Messages: * Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the High Plains today.
Upper level high pressure centered over Texas/Mexico begins to build east over the Gulf of Mexico, shifting the upper trough east a bit. With the moist airmass combined with upper level instability from the trough, scattered to numerous daytime/evening showers and thunderstorms are expected for the forecast area. Wind shear remains meh for today, though as the TexMex upper ridge builds east this weekend, northwesterly upper flow strengthens, with wind shear beginning to increase.
630 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 High pressure provides dry weather while low dew points make for a comfortable afternoon. High pressure today offers pleasant summer weather; low dew points and highs in the low 80s. A broad trough over the Central Plains this morning arrives overhead, locally, Saturday morning. The 00z HREF brings a surface warm front well north into the forecast area, which aligns well with the marginal risk outlined by the SPC. The cold front looks to move through near sunset, after which the severe weather risk would conclude.
Temperatures East of the Divide will also average 5 to 10 degrees cooler. Some models show a weak upper level low moving in from the west, which may help enhance shear somewhat.
For this evening into early Saturday: Storms have already begun to develop in the High Plains in eastern NM this afternoon.
Surface and boundary layer winds will be out of the east to northeast which will also help with keeping temperatures slightly cooler. Model guidance is forecasting highs in the mid to upper 70s and I went with the higher numbers given we may have some breaks of sun during the day to help warm us up slightly. The low level jet should increase during the night with easterly upslope flow allowing storms to increase in coverage.
This results in a longer wavelength trough over western Mi Sat afternoon which would produce better moisture and instability transport into Se Mi.
There is a also a drastic temperature difference with areas in the clearing about 10 degrees warmer.
A broad and weak upper ridge continues to linger well to our south (stretching across the Gulf of Mexico and out into the western Atlantic) this afternoon as an broad upper trough remains situated over the Deep South. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the south central US begins to amplify, causing northwesterly flow aloft to strengthen over the local area.
342 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 A warm front will move northeast across the FA through this evening with more humid conditions. The main concern then becomes Saturday as an influx in theta-e occurs behind the aformentioned warm front causing dewpoints to surge into the low to mid 70s.
Today is expected to be more active than yesterday, with the highest probability for Lake and Modoc counties, though a slight chance also extends into much of Klamath and Siskiyou counties.
(Through Saturday) Subtropical ridging continues to influence our weather to begin the weekend via diurnally driven convection and hot/muggy conditions. Looking at temperatures, morning lows in the 70s give way to peak readings in the low/mid 90s by the afternoon.
1242 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Mid-level ridge will continue to build eastward over the southern high plains with heights increasing slowly through the next few days. The other story for mainly this afternoon will be a round of storms developing over the NM high terrain to the west and pivoting eastward around the northern periphery of the ridge.
(Rest of today through Saturday) A trough of low pressure over the eastern United States has evicted deep-layered high pressure back over the Atlantic.
The better moisture west of the MO River that fueled the Plains MCS overnight continues to work its way into IA ahead of the H85/H7 trough with strong theta-e advection noted in that layer into the evening. The weekend looks mainly dry with both temps and dewpoints at the low end of seasonal values, and little in the way of moisture or forcing.
Elsewhere, clouds and rain will help to keep highs in the lower to mid 90s for today and tomorrow.
Following the rain, weak high pressure should move in, allowing for some breaks in the clouds.
1214 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging remains centered near El Paso early this morning with a broad zone of modest WNW flow aloft set to persist over the High Plains through tonight.
Farther west, CU has begun to build across the higher terrain of southeastern New Mexico on par with model projections as a result of a weakness in the upper high situated over northern Mexico. The upper high will build northwestward tomorrow placing the FA under northwesterly upper flow.
1242 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2023 Long wave western NOAM ridge will slowly shift east and breakdown as the central Canadian upper trough remains in place.
1214 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 (Today and tonight) Thunderstorms are expected to move off the High Plains, making their way into northwestern Oklahoma by early this morning.
Temperatures should be a little warmer than today with highs pushing to near 100 across the Concho Valley.
351 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 Warmer and more humid air returns along with rain and storm chances this weekend.
Further northwest convection has formed along a narrow corridor of 1500 J/KG MLCAPE ahead of a slow moving cold front from southeastern North Dakota into south central South Dakota. TONIGHT: Convection to our north and west may persist through the late evening hours, and could potentially reach the Highway 14 corridor and areas in the far southwestern CWA. A light southerly wind could prevent fog formation, as well as keep temperatures a few degrees warmer.
332 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 A weak cold front will stall out across the area tonight and into the weekend.
1120 AM MDT Fri Jul 7 2023 Showers finally ended over the Elkhead mountains early this morning as the mid-level short wave trough moving over the central Rockies shifted to the High Plains. Models were consistent in building a shallow ridge over the Great Basin today in the wake of the previously mentioned disturbance. Highs will continue to run just a bit warmer than normal and pretty close to what has been observed over the past few days.
Isolated activity near the coast along the seabreeze with more scattered showers and storms just to our NW along the Piedmont trough. Lows tonight in the low-mid 70s.
Water vapor satellite imagery, heights and lightning showed the broad trough over central Canada into the Central Plains with another open wave over the Pacific Northwest. Deeper mid and upper level moisture were noted ahead of the trough from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Plains with clusters of storms over parts of northern MN, southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, Kansas, and Oklahoma into northern Texas late this morning. A cold front will move into the area Saturday with steepening lapse rate and increasing instability.
Heights do increase slightly over the Gulf through Saturday night as the ridge builds slowly east. Models suggest morning coastal showers which may run through the Lower Valley during the day, similar to what we are seeing this afternoon.
High temperatures tomorrow will generally be in the 70s for most, but a few of the warm spots in central WI could see the lower 80s again by the afternoon.
The ridge to the west is forecast to begin to expand eastward into the area tonight and Saturday. This will lead to warmer temperatures and much less coverage of showers tomorrow, with activity mainly confined to the Coastal Plains.
One of the forecast challenges will be due to the increased moisture through the low levels and the determination of which CAM is handling that correctly.
A weak low circulation will linger off the NW coast heading into Saturday as the downstream ridge gradually builds across SRN Idaho. Numerical models suggest that the ridge will be shallow enough to allow thunderstorm activity to bubble up across the mountains in the afternoon and evening. Downvalley winds were noted across the Snake River Plain once again this morning and we were knocking at the lower threshold for a Lake Wind Advisory across American Falls Reservoir.
304 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 Widespread showers and thunderstorms with a cold front will exit to the east late this afternoon and evening. The cold front will stall out and bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday, mainly east of I-81.
252 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 Key Points: - Cold front moves through this evening and overnight, with a few strong to severe storms still possible along the front this evening. Farther to the northwest, a cold front is located across central Nebraska. As this front moves southeast this afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop, with the highest coverage near the intersection of the front and the outflow boundary. The widespread clouds and cooler temperatures will tend to limit instability to 1500-2000 J/kg, but with around 35-40 kts of generally unidirectional shear a few storms could be on the stronger side.
Latest surface analysis is showing a warm front extending from central Kansas into southeast Missouri. Latest visible imagery is showing a well developed CU field to the south of the warm front and the HRRR develops convection along and south of the front late this afternoon into this evening. There will be some lull in the showers and thunderstorms overnight, but should see a pickup in the activity again tomorrow morning and early afternoon as the cold front over the northern Plains and upper Midwest moves southeast across the area.
1225 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 High pressure provides dry weather while low dew points make for a comfortable afternoon. High pressure today offers pleasant summer weather; low dew points and highs in the low 80s. A broad trough over the Central Plains this morning arrives overhead, locally, Saturday morning. The 00z HREF brings a surface warm front well north into the forecast area, which aligns well with the marginal risk outlined by the SPC. The cold front looks to move through near sunset, after which the severe weather risk would conclude.
Thermal trough, characterized by 850 mb temperatures of around 12C, settles into the region today.