Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
436 AM MDT Sun Mar 12 2023 A clipper system across the northern Plains will traverse east allowing a cold front to move across the area. Monday, ridging sets up across the western CONUS with a tight pressure gradient setting up across the area as winds turn to the south. Temperatures look to rebound across the west to the low 50s, while locales to the east will continue to be impacted by SE winds bringing slightly cooler air from the above mentioned colder airmass as high temperatures will struggle to make it to the mid 40s.
(Today through Monday) A cold front is dropping through Central Texas this morning. The cold front will pass through our CWA by mid- morning. Frontal passage will bring a northerly wind shift and eventually cooler, drier air. The cooler air will make better progress over our eastern counties where highs in the 70s will extend down to Lavaca County. Tonight cooler advection will continue as the winds shift to the northeast to east. Low temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler Monday morning everywhere except along the Rio Grande. Cooler air will continue to flow in Monday and highs will only reach the middle 60s to middle 70s.
This inverted trough combined with plenty of low level moisture and lift, indicated in the latest forecast soundings, will continue to generate widespread drizzle with fog lingering as well. Highs today will be in the upper 30s to low 50s with lows tonight below freezing most locations, in the 20s.
614 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 (Today and tonight) Easterly winds are presently seen across the area as a cold front has moved trough and is now located well to the south. Easterlies will persist though today, keeping highs much cooler than yesterday in the upper 50s to low 60s. While skies will clear on Monday, highs will be even cooler, remaining in the 50s over much of the area.
A warm front is making its way across the region this morning, with overrunning moisture producing light precipitation across most of southern Oregon and far northern California. This developing low will slow the progression of the cold front, stalling it over the area until the upper level trough axis catches up and reinvigorates the front's progression Monday night.
302 AM MDT Sun Mar 12 2023 A clipper system across the northern Plains will traverse east allowing a cold front to move across the area. Monday, ridging sets up across the western CONUS with a tight pressure gradient setting up across the area as winds turn to the south. Temperatures look to rebound across the west to the low 50s, while locales to the east will continue to be impacted by SE winds bringing slightly cooler air from the above mentioned colder airmass as high temperatures will struggle to make it to the mid 40s.
Key points: - Cooler and somewhat breezy conditions exist for today and tomorrow, then a big warmup is in store for midweek.
Much quieter wx conds are on tap for the Natural State heading into the new work week as high pressure settles in fm the north, providing much cooler and drier conds. A weak mid lvl trof wl pass acrs the region today, which could bring some patchy light rain/ sprinkles to parts of N AR, followed by a reinforcing shot of colder air. Main concern aft today wl be the potential for freezing temps acrs N AR later tngt and early Mon mrng.
704 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 A weak wave of low pressure approaching from the Ohio Valley will spread patchy light precipitation across the commonwealth from west to east today.
Very warm surface temperatures are occurring ahead of the line with readings in the lower to middle 60s across much of Central Alabama. Surface based CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will proceed the line of convection for areas south of I-20 and west of I-65, thus the higher wind threat will be across the southwest counties. The lagging cold front will move through during the afternoon and evening hours. Mostly sunny and much cooler on Monday with highs in the 50s north and lower 60s south.
715 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 (Today through Monday) Today will be a warm and dry end to the weekend as high pressure briefly builds over the state in the wake of yesterdays front. A low pressure system moving across the Southeast U. will push an associated cold front across the Florida Peninsula throughout Monday, reaching South Florida by late in the evening.
Temperatures will be even cooler on Monday as the colder air remains entrenched across the region.
Afternoon high temps will range from the low to middle 80s near the coasts, to upper 80s inland. (Today through Monday) Today will be a warm and dry end to the weekend as high pressure briefly builds over the state in the wake of yesterdays front. A low pressure system moving across the Southeast U. will push an associated cold front across the Florida Peninsula throughout Monday, reaching South Florida by late in the evening.
This high will center over the Dakotas tonight. With said high pressure, winds will become light and variable tonight before increasing from west to east Monday through Monday night as high pressure slides off to the east and the pressure gradient tightens. Low Monday night should range from the single digits above zero east to the low 20s west.
This will keep light cold advection going across the area into Monday, keeping temperatures on Monday a little cooler as winds shift to the northeast and then east.
and cooler conditions were common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon.
1034 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Another warm and fairly blustery day is in store as a cold front nears the region.
1202 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Below normal temperatures and periodic rain and snow can be expected through midweek as an upper low transitions over the northeast. Patchy light snow/flurries across the region today associated with a weak wave of low pressure. The only concern with this setup is for freezing rain/drizzle over eastern Preston and Tucker counties where surface temperatures should remain below freezing until winds begin to veer southwest after midnight on the backside of an inverted trough.
Mid to upper level low pressure will be over southern Wisconsin by 06Z Monday. Still believe Marquette and Green Lake counties will remain on the low end of advisory criteria by the time this event is over. With a secondary front or push of cooler air, the winds will become more northerly across the forecast area tonight. After tonight, the question will be how fast weather conditions will improve throughout southern Wisconsin, as the mid/upper trough moves east.
(This evening through Monday) The cold front from yesterday continues to linger across eastern New Mexico and south into the Permian Basin with east to northeast winds across much of the forecast area. Thus temperatures today are cooler with highs in the 50s to lower 60s, which is nearly 20 to 30 degrees colder than yesterday. Several models show a scant amount of moisture, therefore the precipitation chances were limited to 15 percent given the low probability of any measurable precipitation. However, low temperatures are expected to generally be in the 30s and a few areas may approach freezing. Tomorrow, temperatures will remain cooler in the 50s with a few high clouds and southeast surface winds at 5 to 15 mph.
(This evening through Monday night) An upper level low is currently moving across Minnesota with the base of the trough extending southward across the lower Mississippi River Valley just west of the river. The cold front is currently draped west to east through Louisiana, Mississippi and into Alabama. Latest guidance suggests the cold front should reach the local coastal waters around sunset and continue southward.
309 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Through Monday: A cold front now extends from near Alexandria to Jackson to Tuscaloosa. The severe threat will end late this afternoon as the cold front pushes through. Monday will be cooler but rain-free as surface ridging builds into the Deep South.
(Tonight through Monday night) The cold front has moved across the area this morning with northerly wind noted at all sites behind it.
Coastal Flood Statement in effect for the Upper Keys, although tides will run much higher than normal this afternoon across all the Keys, so boaters should prepare for less clearance under fixed bridges. From synopsis, southwest breezes will freshen on Monday as another low pressure system deepens east of the Eastern Seaboard.
(Tonight) Low clouds remain in place across the TN Valley this Sun afternoon following the passage of a cold front earlier this morning. Unseasonably cooler air will also begin to filter into the area out of the NNW, with overnight lows falling mainly into the mid/upper 30s for most spots.
1042 AM MDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Webcams across the high country are still showing scattered snow showers, mainly along the I-70 corridor. In regards to the weather, an upper level ridge will be over the West with a northwesterly flow over Colorado. Ridgetop winds will be northwesterly around 15 kts, with the soundings showing some minimal (< 100 j/kg) surface based CAPES. It will be cooler across the plains with temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s. For tonight, partial clearing will be possible, with some lingering mountain snow showers confined to the higher west facing slopes.
1218 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 (Today through Monday) A cold front is dropping through Central Texas this morning. The cold front will pass through our CWA by mid- morning. Frontal passage will bring a northerly wind shift and eventually cooler, drier air. The cooler air will make better progress over our eastern counties where highs in the 70s will extend down to Lavaca County. Tonight cooler advection will continue as the winds shift to the northeast to east. Low temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler Monday morning everywhere except along the Rio Grande. Cooler air will continue to flow in Monday and highs will only reach the middle 60s to middle 70s.
103 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Below normal temperatures and periodic rain and snow can be expected through midweek as an upper low transitions over the northeast. Patchy light snow/flurries across the region today associated with a weak wave of low pressure. The only concern with this setup is for freezing rain/drizzle over eastern Preston and Tucker counties where surface temperatures should remain below freezing until winds begin to veer southwest after midnight on the backside of an inverted trough.
Approaching large upper level low pressure system from the northwest has returned the moisture southwesterly flow over the region. Overall instability appears to be lacking in most of the High-Res models this morning but will address areal extent of lightning and graupel in the afternoon package.
1247 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will exit the area early this morning as a cold front brings cooler and drier air into the Mid-South.
An upper level low over the Ohio Valley and upper level ridging over the Intermountain west will place northwest flow over the the Central High Plains during the short term period. Winds then shift to the south tomorrow into tomorrow night as lee troughing develops across eastern Colorado.
However, as ridging continues to build in from the west, the are area will quickly start to warm up tomorrow.
207 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Periods of snow can be expected this morning as a low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley. In cyclonic low level CAA, expect scattered snow showers to develop through late morning and into the afternoon, with the highest pops across our northeast.
It could be a touch colder in the northwest where it will be freezing or just below. Highs will be in the lower to mid 40s with northwest winds 10-15 mph and higher gusts.
140 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Below normal temperatures and periodic rain and snow can be expected through midweek as an upper low transitions over the northeast. Patchy light snow/flurries across the region today associated with a weak wave of low pressure. The only concern with this setup is for freezing rain/drizzle over eastern Preston and Tucker counties where surface temperatures should remain below freezing until winds begin to veer southwest after midnight on the backside of an inverted trough. Elsewhere, temps are largely forecast to remain above freezing while forecast road temperatures are forecast to remain above with warmer sub-surface temperatures.
Vertical temperature profiles show that the atmosphere is much more stable today compared to yesterday, and a ridge is building over the region. Tomorrow morning should be much nicer under the influence of the ridge in western Montana.
(Rest of Today) Any lingering showers, along with a few embedded tstms, have moved south the central TN Valley, following the passage of a cold front earlier this morning. While the influx of cooler/drier air out of the NNW will begin later today, cloud cover looks to remain in place thru the afternoon hrs, before drier air above H85 out of the NW begins to filter into the area this evening. Temps later today may still reach the upper 50s/lower 60s, before this influx of cooler air strengthens this evening.
233 PM MDT Sun Mar 12 2023 AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: An upper level trough over Minnesota continues moving to the east, building a ridge over much of the Intermountain West in its wake through Monday.
With the increase in the lower/mid clouds after 06z Monday, have decided to put in a mention of flurries into the early morning hours Monday. RH's around the BL area are low and any moisture would have to overcome this low level dryness, so some of this potential flurries may end up as virga. Upper ridge still expected to build over the region Tue-Wed ahead of an upper low.
A cold front currently nearing the MS River will cross our area Monday morning, pulled along by an upper low situated over the Great Lakes. Wrap around moisture from the low to our north, and northwesterly flow will keep light rain/mixed precip chances in the East TN mountains and portions of SW VA. Overnight a cold conveyor belt of air coming out of Canada will move down across much of the southeast US bringing widespread sub-freezing temperatures. This cold air is being forced southward on the backside of the slow moving trough pushing through the Great Lakes region and into New England.
During the overnight hours into tomorrow, an upper level trough is forecast to continue dig into the Eastern U. , and its associated cold front will push across the Florida Peninsula.
-Enriquez PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: A series of synoptic troughs and ridges reside in the flow looking back west. The previous trough has moved into the Upper Mississippi Valley with the cold surface Arctic air from it still parked over the Dakotas and eastern Montana. The next ridge is located over the Pacific Northwest and is pressing into western Montana where it will begin shallowing the arctic air out shortly. Farther west the next trough sets just off the coasts of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia and is quickly amplifying. Meanwhile, the ridge over southern BC and the Pacific Northwest will amplify and begin pressing harder on the cold pool over the High Plains of Montana.
In the boundary's wake, temperatures and dewpoints drop considerably into the lower 60's and upper 50's, effectively ending any severe threat over the next few hours in the boundary's wake. Presently, weak storm relative winds around 20kts in the lowest kilometer suggest mini spinny supercells with small updrafts will continue over the next couple hours.
1058 AM MDT Sun Mar 12 2023 A clipper system across the northern Plains will traverse east allowing a cold front to move across the area. Monday, ridging sets up across the western CONUS with a tight pressure gradient setting up across the area as winds turn to the south. Temperatures look to rebound across the west to the low 50s, while locales to the east will continue to be impacted by SE winds bringing slightly cooler air from the above mentioned colder airmass as high temperatures will struggle to make it to the mid 40s.
1125 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 (Rest of Today) Any lingering showers, along with a few embedded tstms, have moved south the central TN Valley, following the passage of a cold front earlier this morning. While the influx of cooler/drier air out of the NNW will begin later today, cloud cover looks to remain in place thru the afternoon hrs, before drier air above H85 out of the NW begins to filter into the area this evening. Temps later today may still reach the upper 50s/lower 60s, before this influx of cooler air strengthens this evening.
Current snow levels of 5500 feet will keep any snowfall in the highest terrain, and precipitation amounts today are not expected to be hazardous. A warm front is making its way across the region this morning, with overrunning moisture producing light precipitation across most of southern Oregon and far northern California. This developing low will slow the progression of the cold front, stalling it over the area until the upper level trough axis catches up and reinvigorates the front's progression Monday night.
1240 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 (Today and tonight) Easterly winds are presently seen across the area as a cold front has moved trough and is now located well to the south. Easterlies will persist though today, keeping highs much cooler than yesterday in the upper 50s to low 60s. While skies will clear on Monday, highs will be even cooler, remaining in the 50s over much of the area.
(This afternoon through Monday night) Today will be cooler than yesterday thanks to a cold front that has slipped into the region, becoming defuse along the Pecos River.
335 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Key Messages: * Cooler temperatures remain across the region through Monday with highs ranging from the mid-30s to low 40s.
(This evening through Monday Night) Surface and upper-level ridge to build across the region tonight allowing for gradual sky improvement areawide. At the surface, high pressure to continue to build across the region with north winds up to 10 mph prevailing tonight into Monday. Cooler temperatures expected with highs on Monday in the upper 50s to lower 60s while lows both tonight and Monday night range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.
1229 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Below normal temperatures and periodic rain and snow can be expected through midweek as an upper low transitions over the northeast. Patchy light snow/flurries across the region today associated with a weak wave of low pressure. The only concern with this setup is for freezing rain/drizzle over eastern Preston and Tucker counties where surface temperatures should remain below freezing until winds begin to veer southwest after midnight on the backside of an inverted trough.
The cold front will sweep across much of the area by then, with a cooler and drier air mass on tap for Monday.
Water vapor imagery highlights a mature cyclone over the western North Atlantic, east of a negatively tilted trough axis pivoting through the Ohio River Valley and the southern Appalachians. A zonal jet max racing through the southern tier will round the base of the trough axis overnight. Locally, south to southwesterly winds average 4 to 11 knots at the marine observation platforms, with mass fields responding to the burgeoning low pressure system over the Southeast US. Southwesterly breezes will freshen in response to the deepening low pressure system.
(This evening through Monday) Cool conditions will continue tonight into Monday as surface ridging continues to build southward, maintaining northerly winds across the region.
Snow will persist the longest in Sheboygan county with a steady east to northeast feed off the lake as the low moves southeast through southern WI and the frontogenesis pivots over that area. We should have scattered snow showers or flurries tomorrow afternoon as the upper low sits over the area. Mid to upper level low pressure will be over southern Wisconsin by 06Z Monday. Still believe Marquette and Green Lake counties will remain on the low end of advisory criteria by the time this event is over. With a secondary front or push of cooler air, the winds will become more northerly across the forecast area tonight. After tonight, the question will be how fast weather conditions will improve throughout southern Wisconsin, as the mid/upper trough moves east.
657 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Through Monday: A cold front now extends from near Alexandria to Jackson to Tuscaloosa. The severe threat will end late this afternoon as the cold front pushes through. Monday will be cooler but rain-free as surface ridging builds into the Deep South.
634 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) Today will be cooler than yesterday thanks to a cold front that has slipped into the region, becoming defuse along the Pecos River.
653 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 (This evening through Monday Night) Surface and upper-level ridge to build across the region tonight allowing for gradual sky improvement areawide. At the surface, high pressure to continue to build across the region with north winds up to 10 mph prevailing tonight into Monday. Cooler temperatures expected with highs on Monday in the upper 50s to lower 60s while lows both tonight and Monday night range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.
810 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Below normal temperatures and periodic rain and snow can be expected through midweek as an upper low transitions over the northeast.
Likewise, Monday's highs will be bit cooler in the 20s.
737 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) The cold front has moved across the area this morning with northerly wind noted at all sites behind it.
Key Messages: * Cooler temperatures remain across the region through Monday with highs ranging from the mid-30s to low 40s.
Snow showers have increased in coverage across most of the high country this afternoon, and should continue through the evening and early overnight hours tonight. An additional inch or two of snow is possible on favored terrain through midnight tonight, and a couple of slick spots will be possible for travelers across the higher elevations. Low temperatures should fall into the 20s across the plains with cooler temperatures for the high country. We should see the start of a warming trend on Monday as ridging begins to build into the area.
613 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 (This evening through Monday) The cold front from yesterday continues to linger across eastern New Mexico and south into the Permian Basin with east to northeast winds across much of the forecast area. Thus temperatures today are cooler with highs in the 50s to lower 60s, which is nearly 20 to 30 degrees colder than yesterday. Several models show a scant amount of moisture, therefore the precipitation chances were limited to 15 percent given the low probability of any measurable precipitation. However, low temperatures are expected to generally be in the 30s and a few areas may approach freezing. Tomorrow, temperatures will remain cooler in the 50s with a few high clouds and southeast surface winds at 5 to 15 mph.
634 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 (Tonight) Low clouds remain in place across the TN Valley this Sun afternoon following the passage of a cold front earlier this morning. Unseasonably cooler air will also begin to filter into the area out of the NNW, with overnight lows falling mainly into the mid/upper 30s for most spots.
Otherwise, sunny skies and average temperatures across the region today and Monday under a weak ridge.
(Tonight) Cold air advection is ongoing across the region in the wake of a cold frontal passage earlier today.
Expect it to be limited to a few thin high clouds and the very slight (<10%) chance that isolated freezing fog develops. -Zanker AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: An upper level trough over Minnesota continues moving to the east, building a ridge over much of the Intermountain West in its wake through Monday.