Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
259 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 Strong high pressure will remain in control of the weather through the end of the week.
(Today) An upper level low currently over the four corners region will continue to slowly approach the southern plains.
1057 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 High pressure is centered over the Midwest this evening providing fair weather conditions across central Illinois. Temps are expected radiate efficiently tonight, falling into the lower to mid 20s.
1235 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 A large area of high pressure will remain in control over the region for the rest of the week. The next chance for precipitation will be over the weekend, when a low pressure system moves through the region. Mass subsidence will lead to clear skies and strong radiational cooling; therefore, have tweaked low temperatures slightly below guidance and expect overnight lows to drop into the low 20s, possibly even teens in spots. This, combined with ridging aloft, will begin the transition to a slight warm up for our area.
1133 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 - Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through Thursday. Areas with snowpack will struggle to get above freezing.
319 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 High pressure dominates through the first half of the weekend. Dry and cooler conditions as highs only reach the low to mid 40s, with a light westerly wind.
1231 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2023 Satellite imagery shows ridging over the northern high plains into southern Canada, and a closed low over the four-corners area. The low to our south will not have any impact on our forecast area other than to spread in some high clouds later today.
1230 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 No major changes are needed to the forecast this evening as high pressure dominates the pattern across the region.
No change to current forecast through the weekend under persistent upper ridge, with surface-based inversion, air stagnation, areas of low clouds and fog in the valleys during the nights and mornings, and little day-to-day change in temperatures.
High pressure with clear sky today. Dry air across the region with subsidence along the eastern edge of the ridge axis across the Mississippi Valley. Discussion: Ridging amplifies across the Mississippi Valley with upper level northwest flow across the region. This will continue to place us within a region of subsidence and dry air with low-level ridging centered over the Southern Appalachians.
Rain continues to arrive onto the coast this evening ahead of a slow-moving cold front. With the ridge moving east, a slow moving front will arrive late tonight into early Thursday morning.
1109 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Key Message: * No major forecast concerns through Thursday night High pressure will prevail as the dominant weather feature over the Great Lakes. As temperatures have warmed dew points have been able to mix down with many sites reporting values in the lower teens and single digits. Therefore, as temperatures cool, via radiational cooling, we should see lows in the low to mid-20s tonight with areas near the lake remaining in the upper 20s.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer than normal, with low 50s for most, and upper 50s across south-central KY.
Over the remainder of the region, expect overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. (This evening through Thursday Night) Upper ridge aloft this afternoon will continue to slide east through the period, giving way to the gradual influence of the upper trough present across the SW CONUS.
113 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 Aviation Earlier cloudiness has mostly dissipated but now there is extensive cirrus spilling over the upper ridge and diving south from Upper Michigan. No impact weather concerns in the short term with high pressure in control for the most part at the surface. A sprawling area of high pressure will be situated in the short term from the Ohio Valley northward into the Great Lakes.
- Light freezing rain/drizzle is expected to continue across west central Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas near the Colorado border through this evening. WV imagery indicates a closed upper low drifting slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is edging east out of the Central Plains and through the Ohio River Valley. Based on radar/satellite trends and CAMs, periods of intermittent light to moderate rain are expected to prevail across much of southwest Kansas tonight and Thursday as a closed upper low shifts slowly east through the Desert Southwest, creating an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains.
1051 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Water vapor/RAP & evening synoptic upper air analysis indicate mid-level ridging over the Gulf Coast states while upper cold core low is centered over the Southwest/Four Corners area. Tomorrow may be a degree or two warmer than today, with high clouds continuing to drift over the region.
Despite the drier air filtering in, not as cool temperatures prevailed across the region with readings ranging from a cold 30 in Winchester to the lower 40s elsewhere.
411 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 We will have seasonable temperatures today under mostly sunny skies, as high pressure builds in. Warm advection occurring through the day with flat upper ridging building into our region. Continued warm advection and flat upper ridging building into our region Friday, with some gusty west winds in the afternoon. Northern stream upper energy in Canada tracks north and east of our region but the brief upper confluence will strengthen low level ridging in eastern Canada. So, a weak cold front with little to no moisture associated with it is expected to drop south as low level ridging builds south out of Canada Friday night.
A ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather and above normal temperatures to the Mid-South through Friday with highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
301 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 - Mixture of rain and freezing rain this morning. Upstream observations over western KS are are a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Based on forecast soundings, this precipitation should encounter warmer air aloft as it moves into our area, resulting in mostly rain/freezing rain this morning. Temperatures just ahead of the precipitation are currently within a couple degrees of freezing (either above or below), but may trend upwards a degree or two as precipitation moves in. Friday has trended a bit cooler with lingering cloud cover and even continued light rain over the southeastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of our area.
However, PoPs will increase again to around 20-50% inland on Friday as an associated cold front swings through the region. Highs today will range from the upper 60s to the low 70s, and in the low to mid 70s on Friday.
422 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Today and Tonight: continued dry and slightly warmer through the period. This high will shift slightly to the east through tonight and maintain a low level east wind across our region. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low just southwest of the Four Corners region. This closed low will track east to the southern Plains through tonight and further strengthen the induced mid level ridging over our region.
Drier warmer weather will persist for the next few days.
(Today through Friday) Although somewhat drier lower level air has filtered into much of our area early this morning, isentropic forcing ahead of an upper level low over the Four Corners region is overcoming this drier air and generating showers over much of our area. The upper level low opens into a trough while moving out across the Southern Plains somewhat phasing with an upper level trough moving across the Northern Plains into the upper Midwest on Friday. This drags a cold front across much of our area on Friday.
609 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 We will have seasonable temperatures today under mostly sunny skies, as high pressure builds in. Warm advection occurring through the day with flat upper ridging building into our region. Continued warm advection and flat upper ridging building into our region Friday, with some gusty west winds in the afternoon. Northern stream upper energy in Canada tracks north and east of our region but the brief upper confluence will strengthen low level ridging in eastern Canada. So, a weak cold front with little to no moisture associated with it is expected to drop south as low level ridging builds south out of Canada Friday night.
922 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 We will have seasonable temperatures today under mostly sunny skies, as high pressure builds in. Warm advection occurring through the day with flat upper ridging building into our region. Continued warm advection and flat upper ridging building into our region Friday, with some gusty west winds in the afternoon. Northern stream upper energy in Canada tracks north and east of our region but the brief upper confluence will strengthen low level ridging in eastern Canada. So, a weak cold front with little to no moisture associated with it is expected to drop south as low level ridging builds south out of Canada Friday night.
614 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 We will have seasonable temperatures today under mostly sunny skies, as high pressure builds in. Warm advection occurring through the day with flat upper ridging building into our region. Continued warm advection and flat upper ridging building into our region Friday, with some gusty west winds in the afternoon. Northern stream upper energy in Canada tracks north and east of our region but the brief upper confluence will strengthen low level ridging in eastern Canada. So, a weak cold front with little to no moisture associated with it is expected to drop south as low level ridging builds south out of Canada Friday night.
142 AM PST Thu Dec 14 2023 High pressure will continue to bring valley inversions, light winds and seasonal temperatures through the weekend.
A closed upper low currently over far eastern Arizona, will track east across New Mexico today and into the Texas Panhandle overnight, and then into western Oklahoma by Friday morning. The heaviest rainfall is expected across the Big Country, in closer proximity to the upper low where the best lift will occur. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s north, to the lower 50s south.
532 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Today and Tonight: continued dry and slightly warmer through the period. This high will shift slightly to the east through tonight and maintain a low level east wind across our region. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low just southwest of the Four Corners region. This closed low will track east to the southern Plains through tonight and further strengthen the induced mid level ridging over our region.
Sfc ridging will hold to the northeast of the area, keeping dry air and east winds in place. Temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer today than yesterday.
534 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 A sprawling ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois through Friday. After chilly early morning low temperatures in the middle 20s, abundant sunshine will efficiently warm the dry airmass today, resulting in afternoon highs in the lower 50s. As the ridge begins to shift away from the region, increasing southerly boundary layer flow will keep lows tonight from dropping as much as they have in recent nights. with readings only bottoming out in the lower 30s. Despite skies becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon, high temperatures will once again climb well above normal for this time of year into the lower to middle 50s.
Slow progression eastward of the high, along with the approach of the next system, will shift winds to southeasterly for Friday. A split flow pattern over the Mountain West results in two areas of low pressure.
528 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 (Today) An upper level low currently over the four corners region will continue to slowly approach the southern plains.
530 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 (Today through Friday) Although somewhat drier lower level air has filtered into much of our area early this morning, isentropic forcing ahead of an upper level low over the Four Corners region is overcoming this drier air and generating showers over much of our area. The upper level low opens into a trough while moving out across the Southern Plains somewhat phasing with an upper level trough moving across the Northern Plains into the upper Midwest on Friday. This drags a cold front across much of our area on Friday.
As a result, expect gusty winds out of the northeast today, and temperatures just a few degrees cooler than yesterday, especially for areas along and north of the I-20 corridor and east of the Metro -- in the lower-50s to near 60.
Highs both days will be slightly above normal, with readings in the lower to middle 60s. As the high builds southward towards Alabama today, the pressure gradient will tighten, resulting in surface winds around 10 mph, with gusts of 15-20 mph.
615 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 Strong high pressure will remain in control of the weather through the end of the week.
636 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 Aviation --Mild weather with above normal temperatures High pressure and clear skies will dominate the weather pattern today. A large upper level ridge will build over the midwest and move over the Great Lakes today into tomorrow. High pressure throughout the atmosphere will stifle any clouds.
511 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 - Warmer than normal temperatures and dry through most of Friday.
534 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 A ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather and above normal temperatures to the Mid-South through Friday with highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
Most locations will likely keep the low stratus throughout much of the day, with a few peaks of sunshine this afternoon. Only minor impacts are anticipated, but there is also a slight chance (10-20%) the light snowfall will mix with freezing drizzle, creating isolated slick spots. The ridge of high pressure will return Friday and linger over the Northern Rockies through the weekend.
This will bring a dry/weak cold front across the area this afternoon with somewhat cooler temperatures.
938 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 Very strong (+1040mb) high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley is slowly drifting east this morning. This high will promote subsidence aloft resulting in sunny skies and light winds for the region. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than normal, with low 50s for most, and upper 50s across south-central KY.
538 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 - Mixture of rain and freezing rain this morning. Upstream observations over western KS are are a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Based on forecast soundings, this precipitation should encounter warmer air aloft as it moves into our area, resulting in mostly rain/freezing rain this morning. Temperatures just ahead of the precipitation are currently within a couple degrees of freezing (either above or below), but may trend upwards a degree or two as precipitation moves in. Friday has trended a bit cooler with lingering cloud cover and even continued light rain over the southeastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of our area.
553 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 High pressure builds into the region today with clearing skies. Quiet weather will persist through the weekend, with dry conditions and warmer temperatures. 325 AM Update: High pressure moves into the region today, which will result in mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures. Mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures are expected tonight with high pressure remaining in control. Warm air advection with ridging overhead on Friday. The short term will be mostly quiet with high pressure and upper level ridging in place.
926 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 High pressure builds into the region today with clearing skies. Quiet weather will persist through the weekend, with dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Temperatures were slightly cooler than forecasted, so those were adjusted down at least a couple of degrees through the morning by using a blend of short range model guidance and the previous forecast. 325 AM Update: High pressure moves into the region today, which will result in mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures. Mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures are expected tonight with high pressure remaining in control. Warm air advection with ridging overhead on Friday. The short term will be mostly quiet with high pressure and upper level ridging in place.
This is due to troughing, delayed in progression by a nearly stationary (gradually weakening) area of ridging over the Midwest, that now will proceed across Texas during the day on Friday.
Strong high pressure to the southeast and weak low pressure over far western SD will create a tighter pressure gradient over the region today. Could see locally higher gusts along the higher elevations of the Prairie Coteau with an H85 llj of 35 to 40 kts. The good mixing and ridging aloft will once again push temperatures well above normal today.
Friday the low will track across OK. Should be another chilly day today with highs in the 40s and 50s across SE NM and the Permian Basin as the backdoor front that pushed into the region yesterday remains pushed up against the higher elevations. Friday a little warmer.
Early this morning an upper level low, embedded in the southern stream jet, was located across central AZ. The polar jet was forming an upper ridge across western Canada. An amplified upper level trough was moving offshore along the Atlantic coast. At the surface a broad area of high pressure extended along the OH River Valley, westward across eastern KS.
920 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 Strong high pressure will remain in control of the weather through the end of the week.
302 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 A sprawling ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois through Friday. After chilly early morning low temperatures in the middle 20s, abundant sunshine will efficiently warm the dry airmass today, resulting in afternoon highs in the lower 50s. As the ridge begins to shift away from the region, increasing southerly boundary layer flow will keep lows tonight from dropping as much as they have in recent nights. with readings only bottoming out in the lower 30s. Despite skies becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon, high temperatures will once again climb well above normal for this time of year into the lower to middle 50s.
It honestly may feel more like a nice fall day than almost winter and you have high pressure over the region to thank for that.
Rain and snow showers will be possible over eastern Arizona today, before warmer and dry conditions set in through the weekend. Winds will continue to become more NE-NNW as the low traverses east. Remnant moisture combined with orographic forcing on the backside of the low will keep some lingering rain and snow showers through the morning mainly near the Four Corners. For the remainder of northern Arizona, dry and cool conditions are expected behind the low today.
(The rest of today ) Closed upper low making very slow porkers east this morning and that trend will continue through the day.
Geelhart A sprawling ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois through Friday. After chilly early morning low temperatures in the middle 20s, abundant sunshine will efficiently warm the dry airmass today, resulting in afternoon highs in the lower 50s. As the ridge begins to shift away from the region, increasing southerly boundary layer flow will keep lows tonight from dropping as much as they have in recent nights. with readings only bottoming out in the lower 30s. Despite skies becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon, high temperatures will once again climb well above normal for this time of year into the lower to middle 50s.
High pressure remains over much of the eastern U. ARS A ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather and above normal temperatures to the Mid-South through Friday with highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
246 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 Dry high pressure will remain in place through late week with below normal temperatures expected each day.
124 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 - Warmer than normal temperatures are expected for much of the forecast period.
Closed upper level low has moved east and mostly departed the region this afternoon. Just some lingering low level stratus left over on the back side of the low over the four corners region that will be slow to diminish through the afternoon, into the evening. With the departure of the low, high pressure will start building into the region over the coming days.
(Rest of Today) Temperatures are warming quickly through the 40s into the lower 50s at this hour. East-southeast flow will continue to advect dry air into the region as strong high pressure over the OH valley starts to shift into the central Appalachians.
With stratiform cloud cover socked in across the island chain, temperatures struggled to reach the lower to mid 70s at most official and unofficial observation sites. Rainfall has varied widely today, ranging from only occasional spritzes across the Lower Keys to 1.
Discussion: High pressure continues to dominate and control the weather over the East Tennessee Valley for the short-term period. Favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow temperatures to fall sharply tonight, with lows below freezing for most. Similar to this afternoon, weak flow aloft and light surface winds centered under high pressure will limit fire weather concerns.
At the surface, the western edge of stratus/fog has begun eroding, and this will accelerate over through Friday as a cold front drops in in the wake of the trough, ushering in much drier air. Friday, although thicknesses decline as the cold front moves in, skies will clear west-to-east, and abundant insolation will allow afternoon highs to warm to around normal.
Very strong (+1040mb) high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley is slowly drifting east this morning. This high will promote subsidence aloft resulting in sunny skies and light winds for the region. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than normal, with low 50s for most, and upper 50s across south-central KY.
A ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather and above normal temperatures to the Mid-South through Friday with highs on Friday in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
1152 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 (Today through Friday) Although somewhat drier lower level air has filtered into much of our area early this morning, isentropic forcing ahead of an upper level low over the Four Corners region is overcoming this drier air and generating showers over much of our area. The upper level low opens into a trough while moving out across the Southern Plains somewhat phasing with an upper level trough moving across the Northern Plains into the upper Midwest on Friday. This drags a cold front across much of our area on Friday.
--Mild weather with above normal temperatures High pressure and clear skies will dominate the weather pattern today. A large upper level ridge will build over the midwest and move over the Great Lakes today into tomorrow. High pressure throughout the atmosphere will stifle any clouds.
Current satellite imagery and surface observations are showing mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 60s across the area, highs should reach the lower to mid 70s today.
1246 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 We will have seasonable temperatures today under mostly sunny skies, as high pressure builds in. Warm advection occurring through the day with flat upper ridging building into our region. Continued warm advection and flat upper ridging building into our region Friday, with some gusty west winds in the afternoon. Northern stream upper energy in Canada tracks north and east of our region but the brief upper confluence will strengthen low level ridging in eastern Canada. So, a weak cold front with little to no moisture associated with it is expected to drop south as low level ridging builds south out of Canada Friday night.
250 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 High pressure remains in control for one more day before a pattern change is expected for the weekend.