Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry wx is forecast tonight through Thursday and it will be even warmer tomorrow with high temps reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s. However this is still far below record high temperatures for this time of year (which are generally in the lower to middle 90s).
1246 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week providing dry weather and a slow warming trend, with river valley fog developing at night. A high pressure system will provide dry weather today and tonight.
On Wednesday, mid level flow bends back to the southwest in response to upper level trough moving into the Great Basin. Overall, expect fairly minimal convection in the afternoon, though one or two weak storms will be possible over the higher peaks of the Continental Divide/Pikes Peak where some residual moisture may linger. The main difference is in the track of an upper low across Wyoming, with the GFS the furthest north solution.
The upper level ridge will build over the area this afternoon, while 850mb temperatures warm 3 to 4 degrees Celsius across the entire area. The record high at San Angelo is 102, which was last set in 2021, and we're predicting a high of 101, so this high will at least be in jeopardy of being tied.
945 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023 A strengthening low pressure system will move into Southern California tonight. A stronger trough will deepen along the West Coast Thursday. This pattern will bring cooler weather, gusty mountain and desert winds, and a marine layer deep enough for patchy drizzle in the coastal and valley zones Wednesday and Thursday mornings. High pressure aloft will bring warmer weather this weekend. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO A compact closed low near Pt Conception this evening will move ESE across SoCal tonight. The trough will bring a cooler day Wednesday along with gusty west winds in the mountains and the deserts. Thursday will be another day of below average temperatures as a much large trough deepens over the West Coast.
A cold front has pushed into the eastern ND early this morning and is forecast to stall, lingering over southeast ND and west central MN this afternoon.
Meanwhile, unremarkable zonal flow aloft today transitions to weak ridging aloft for tomorrow. Looking for temps a tick warmer on Wednesday, mostly ranging between 79 and 84 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the 50s under pretty favorable radiational cooling conditions, although some of the cooler valleys will likely dip into the 40s once again.
245 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Building high pressure will provide dry conditions through the week, with potential for foggy river valleys each morning. Temperatures will rise above normal by Thursday before cooling this weekend as low pressure approaches from the southeast. Morning lows will be a degree or so warmer than todays lows. The high pressure center nearly overhead will make for very light winds through the day as subsidence in place will also make for mainly sunny skies once the mentioned trough moves out. Clear skies min place tonight will make for river valley fog development again and slightly cooler temperatures. Heights will be building in the mid levels as the low in the central US lifts toward the northern Great Lakes.
Current radar shows scattered showers and weak storms moving off the higher terrain onto the plains. Wednesday, heights rise slightly as a ridge builds in from the south.
(Today through Thursday) South Central Texas will remain under the influence of the northern periphery of the upper level ridge axis through the short term forecast leading to continued warm and dry conditions. Heights actually increase today and Thursday across the region as the ridge axis drifts east into the region.
An upper-level area of low pressure will move eastward across Southern California today. A cold front will move southward across Central California Thursday. A few strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of this cold front along the Sierra Nevada crest north of Tulare County Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Robust, southwest wind gusts are anticipated in the Kern County desert Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening ahead of this cold front.
1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) An upper-level ridge continues to build over western Texas limiting any rain chances to the lower Texas coast and coastal waters.
Regional VAD wind profilers indicate southerly low-level return flow is beginning to take shape on the western side of the 850mb ridge centered over the Appalachians-Atlantic seaboard. Persistence for highs should be generally on track, in the low 90s across southern half of area while in the northeast into the upper 80s. 25 inch PW air, while better to the west, will support another aftn of favorable mixing of dewpoints into the low 50s & low aftn humidity. 5 inches & dewpoints climbing into the low 60s) will support seasonable lows in the low 60s northeast to mid 60s elsewhere under partly cloudy skies.
Highs will range from the low to mid 80s for most. Ern flank of low level theta-e ridge into nw IN/sw MI will gradually retreat north into cntrl MI today as low level flow/forcing decays with swd extent. Otherwise thermal ridge builds a bit further and with at least partial insolation yield 80 or better for most this aftn. Narrow yet impressive high level blocking ridge assured into this weekend between impressive subtropical sys tracking up the east coast and equally impressive cutoff developing through the nrn plains. A dry forecast with VFR conditions is expected through the period at both sites as warm front continues to push slowly north overnight.
The low end, disorganized PoPs will continue into tonight, with lows expected to fall in the upper 50s.
219 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High pressure gradually shifts offshore tonight and Thursday with dry conditions and pleasant temperatures. Latest analysis shows high pressure anchored over the eastern US. Strong ridging pattern continues with dry conditions with only scattered afternoon cu. Ridging will be the dominate feature through midweek leading to a calm, clear, and dry couple of days.
The cold front that passed through this past weekend will slowly lift back north increasing our moisture return for Wednesday. The moisture return will place our dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, compared to the upper 50s today. Morning lows in the low to mid 60s, with the warmer temps south of I-10.
1004 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Dry and seasonable high pressure will continue through Thursday.
Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN 624 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 (Today) A large area of high pressure will keep the bulk of the upper level forcing and deeper moisture associated with an upper low currently over southern Missouri and NW Arkansas to our NW through the afternoon and into the early evening hours. It looks slightly warmer than the past few days near/west of the I-65 corridor, as 925 mb temperatures climb back into the 20 to 23 degree range there and we see abundant sunshine for a good portion of the day.
A short wave trough continues to progress across eastern Montana and will move into western North Dakota early this morning. A broad trough is forecast to dig across Western CONUS by the middle of the week placing North Dakota in southwesterly flow aloft. Models have the upper low cutting off over the Great Basin resulting in multiple disturbance moving through the Northern Plains this week. Then by the end of the week the upper low is forecast to progress through the Northern Plains.
A trough will bring gusty winds and a few degrees of cooling the second half of the week. High pressure to our south with a trough digging from British Columbia into the intermountain west over the next 72 hours. With the ridge trying to hang strong over central to northern Mexico, it's starting to look like we won't have much cooling overall. Generally dry weather will prevail through the period with Min RH values mainly 10-15 percent from Tucson west, 15-20 percent in eastern valleys and 20-30 percent over the higher elevations.
537 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week providing dry weather and a slow warming trend, with river valley fog developing at night. A high pressure system will provide dry weather today and tonight.
(Now through Thursday) A light zonal flow aloft strengthens and becomes more northwesterly on Thursday as an upper- level ridge builds across the Southern Plains and an upper-level low develops off the GA/SC coast. At the surface, high pressure remains in place to our north. Interior locations should remain rain free thanks to subsident effects from the high to the north. As it develops, the counter-clockwise flow around the low will bring northeasterly flow across the area, helping to shunt the aforementioned surface boundary back offshore and bring drier air back into the region by the late afternoon. Lows will range from the mid 60s inland to the low 70s along the coast.
459 AM MDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Current surface map places cold front across the eastern Dakotas with trough across Montana into eastern Wyoming. Upper low drops through the Pacific Northwest today, with southwest flow aloft increasing.
939 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 A weak warm front will lift across northwest Ohio this morning reaching southern Ontario by late afternoon.
625 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 (Today through Thursday) Triple digit heat and rain-free conditions will prevail through the short term period as the region remains under the influence of mid level ridging.
638 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Fair dry weather will grace the region throughout the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds over the region.
726 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High pressure is moving into the North Country, with several days of pleasant weather expected.
Key Messages: * Temperatures will be a little cooler today with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across western portions of the forecast area later this afternoon into this evening.
635 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 (Today through Thursday) South Central Texas will remain under the influence of the northern periphery of the upper level ridge axis through the short term forecast leading to continued warm and dry conditions. Heights actually increase today and Thursday across the region as the ridge axis drifts east into the region.
A warm day with well above normal temperatures is expected today, with high temperatures in the 70s to around 80, though the North Shore will be cooler as is typical with easterly flow. Tonight an inverted trough sagging into the area from the northwest will serve as the focus for some more showers and even thunderstorms. This trough pushes back north as a warm front, continuing to serve as the focus for showers and storms.
1027 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Fair dry weather will continue through the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds over the region.
1016 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High pressure is moving into the North Country, with several days of pleasant weather expected.
The next upstream closed low is currently over western Washington and is forecast to move southward into southeast Oregon and far northern Nevada by late Thursday before moving east late in the week.
A warm front will lift north this morning, allowing warmer temperatures to advect into the region by this afternoon. Although previous model runs generated precipitation as the warm front lifts north today, recent model runs are fairly dry. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower to middle 50s across the north, with middle to upper 50s across central and east-central Wisconsin.
Temperatures range from the 40s in the lower elevations to the 60s across some of the ridges of Lake and Mendocino counties. The W Coast upper trough will be reinforced with a low dropping S into SE OR by Thursday.
1052 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Building high pressure will provide dry conditions through the week, with potential for foggy river valleys each morning. Temperatures will rise above normal by Thursday before cooling this weekend as low pressure approaches from the southeast. The high pressure center nearly overhead will make for very light winds through the day as subsidence in place will also make for mainly sunny skies once the mentioned trough moves out. Clear skies in place tonight will make for river valley fog development again and slightly cooler temperatures. Lows are forecast to remain a couple degrees warmer than the night prior, but still near average. Heights will be building in the mid levels as the low in the central US lifts toward the northern Great Lakes.
(Today through Thursday) Triple digit heat and rain-free conditions will prevail through the short term period as the region remains under the influence of mid level ridging.
629 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 (Today and tonight) A mid-level wave/trough currently over eastern Oklahoma is expected to move eastward into the Mississippi Valley Region by this afternoon so could still see scattered thunderstorms moving across our area through the morning, although it should stay east of I-35 during the afternoon hours. By late afternoon heating, moderate elevated instability and deep-layer shear associated with the trough may be sufficient for low-end severe thunderstorms to initiate.
953 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Building high pressure will provide dry conditions through the week, with potential for foggy river valleys each morning. Temperatures will rise above normal by Thursday before cooling this weekend as low pressure approaches from the southeast. The high pressure center nearly overhead will make for very light winds through the day as subsidence in place will also make for mainly sunny skies once the mentioned trough moves out. Clear skies in place tonight will make for river valley fog development again and slightly cooler temperatures. Lows are forecast to remain a couple degrees warmer than the night prior, but still below average. Heights will be building in the mid levels as the low in the central US lifts toward the northern Great Lakes.
637 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High pressure to dominate with dry weather and near average temps through Thursday.
High pressure will remain dominant over the region, and dry conditions will persist through the short term period.
857 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week providing dry weather and a slow warming trend, with river valley fog developing at night. A high pressure system will provide dry weather today and tonight.
Showers will linger today with cooler temperatures in the 60s.
Highs will range from the low to mid 80s for most. Ern flank of low level theta-e ridge into nw IN/sw MI will gradually retreat north into cntrl MI today as low level flow/forcing decays with swd extent. Otherwise thermal ridge builds a bit further and with at least partial insolation yield 80 or better for most this aftn. Narrow yet impressive high level blocking ridge assured into this weekend between impressive subtropical sys tracking up the east coast and equally impressive cutoff developing through the nrn plains.
639 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Dry and seasonable high pressure will continue through Thursday.
438 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Key Messages: * Temperatures will be a little cooler today with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across western portions of the forecast area later this afternoon into this evening.
957 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Building high pressure will provide dry conditions through the week, with potential for foggy river valleys each morning. Temperatures will rise above normal by Thursday before cooling this weekend as low pressure approaches from the southeast. The high pressure center nearly overhead will make for very light winds through the day as subsidence in place will also make for mainly sunny skies once the mentioned trough moves out. Clear skies in place tonight will make for river valley fog development again and slightly cooler temperatures. Lows are forecast to remain a couple degrees warmer than the night prior, but still near average. Heights will be building in the mid levels as the low in the central US lifts toward the northern Great Lakes.
606 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 (Today through Thursday) A mid to upper level ridge over west-central Mexico will slowly shift eastward through Thursday, keeping mainly rain-free conditions across most of South Texas.
Severe storms are not out of the realm of possibility today, with modeled MUCAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range and cooler 500 mb temperatures (- 9C to -8C). Overnight lows in the low 70s.
645 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Patchy ground fog with very localized reductions in vis to 1/4 mile have been reported in lakes country in the warm sector ahead of the cold front/behind a warm frontal zone. A cold front has pushed into the eastern ND early this morning and is forecast to stall, lingering over southeast ND and west central MN this afternoon.
Marginal CAPE will limit the thunder potential through mid/late afternoon, about the the time the MO upper trough axis rotates into the Midsouth.
(This evening through Thursday) Mid level ridge axis will shift east of the area tonight, with west to southwest flow aloft developing in advance of an upper level trough over western portions of the CONUS. A weaker thermal ridge, coupled with the increase in cloud cover will result in slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow, with highs ranging from the lower 90s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 90s elsewhere. Lows tonight will be mainly in the low to mid 70s.
Broad subsidence under the ridge aloft and weak lift from the MCV should limit the spacial coverage of showers and storms to a more isolated to scattered basis.
Storms developing in the High Plains tomorrow afternoon could then move into western portions of the fa Thursday evening. Currently, the highest severe potential is in SE portions of the fa but this could change tonight and throughout the day tomorrow.
Temperatures don't appear to be very affected by the clouds, and highs in the low to upper 80s are expected. The upper-level trough axis will be just east of the forecast area tomorrow as surface cyclogenesis begins to occur east of Florida and off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
(Tonight through Thursday night) An upper-level ridge centered over western Texas continues to provide broad subsidence and dry mid-level flow, hampering convection over Deep South Texas. Heat index values are anticipated to reach 105-110, with the highest values expected in Cameron County.
347 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Afternoon observational trends indicate the warm front better defined by the surface Td gradient that is mainly aligned with the mid level cloud pattern over the central Great Lakes. The mid level ridge then sharpens over Lower Mi after midnight as the twin MS valley circulations drift due north while supplying patchy/thin high clouds into the ridge axis. Mid to upper 70s will be most common, with 80 at the top of the range, especially given a light SE gradient wind from high pressure centered over the St Lawrence valley.
1130 AM MDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Current surface map places cold front across the eastern Dakotas with trough across Montana into eastern Wyoming. Upper low drops through the Pacific Northwest today, with southwest flow aloft increasing.
There is low-level veering, indicating that the atmosphere is indeed continuing to trend more summer-like as the low-level boundary lifts northward.
Low pressure will move across the Desert Southwest through Thursday.
The invasion of the high cloudiness today is an indication of this moisture and this will eventually lead to an increase in convection this evening which linger well into the early morning hours. There are a few opportunities for large scale ascent during this time due to favorable jet dynamics across our southern zones and the piece of energy moving through with the shearing upper low. Subsidence and drying behind this system will bring a slightly cooler and breezy day for Thursday with localized critical fire weather developing in the afternoon over the lower desert valleys.
1149 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week providing dry weather and a slow warming trend, with river valley fog developing at night. High pressure will remain in control today with wall-to-wall sunshine areawide. 500-mb heights will slightly rise this afternoon, which will bump temperatures into the upper 70s across the lowlands. Thursday afternoon will be slightly warmer than today with rising 500-mb heights and the center of high pressure sliding farther east. High temperatures Thursday should reach the lower 80s in the lowlands. Key Points: * High pressure keeps conditions dry.
In addition, though a dry layer was observed in the mid levels on this mornings sounding, moisture is still plentiful in the low levels with quite a bit of instability. Given that an upper level trough remains across the area with weak ridging in the low levels there is not a whole lot of large scale subsidence to prevent thermodynamic processes from flourishing.
Temperatures will likely be in the low 80s in the east with upper 70s across areas that experience more cloud cover and rain.
349 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High pressure is moving into the North Country, with several days of pleasant weather expected. A low pressure system will move up the Atlantic coast, but some uncertainty remains on how far north precipitation lifts into the region.
Discussion: High pressure over the Mississippi Valley late week will do its best to keep impacts from a southeastern coastal/tropical low from troubling us this weekend.
114 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week providing dry weather and a slow warming trend, with river valley fog developing at night. High pressure will remain in control today with wall-to-wall sunshine areawide. 500-mb heights will slightly rise this afternoon, which will bump temperatures into the upper 70s across the lowlands. Thursday afternoon will be slightly warmer than today with rising 500-mb heights and the center of high pressure sliding farther east. High temperatures Thursday should reach the lower 80s in the lowlands. Key Points: * High pressure keeps conditions dry.
131 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High pressure is moving into the North Country, with several days of pleasant weather expected.
The warm front, associated with a system to the south of the forecast, will continue to lift north and bring warmer air to the region overnight. Patchy dense fog is possible in north-central WI where models indicate the lowest visibilities occurring. Another warm front is expected to lift into southern WI and near the forecast area, but a lack in low and mid-level moisture will lower the chances for shower and thunderstorm development. However, with MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and steep mid-level lapse rates in place, cannot rule out the small chance for an isolated shower or storm to develop along the warm front somewhere in central or east- central WI.
1213 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 A deep trough over the Pacific NW will dig south along the west coast today and merge with a more subtle trough over southern California. Weak upper ridging will briefly move over the area today which will help keep storms at bay. The deep western trough will eject out a lead wave over the Rockies. Lee troughing will ramp up across the state bringing rich moisture into the area.
The upper low off the coast of south Central California will be moving eastward later today, continuing a pattern of onshore flow and lower than normal temperatures, along with a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the Sierra tonight into Thursday. Thursday, the upper low currently over Canada will drop southwestward over Northern California, bringing northerly winds to the northern Sacramento Valley, with sustained speeds between 15-25 mph, and a 60-90% chance of gusts exceeding 30 mph. The smoke currently causing haze and impacting air quality in the Sacramento Valley will also likely continue to influence the area through at least Thursday, thanks to the northerly winds brought on by the low.