Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
706 AM EDT Tue May 9 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Latest model solutions depict broad high pressure sprawling across the Western Atlantic gradually weakening during the next couple of days, but remaining mainly stationary. Pressure gradients will then decrease as the ridge weakens, with sfc winds decreasing to below 10 mph in general. The combination of persisting subsidence and lighter winds will allow for afternoon temperatures to climb into the low-mid 90s by this afternoon, warmest over the west coast. High temperatures will be a degree or two warmer on Wednesday.
Today should be a great day with a mix of sun and clouds amid light winds as high pressure takes hold at the surface and ridging builds aloft. Highs will be in the low 70s away from the lakeshore and in the upper 50s to to low 60s in lakeshore adjacent areas. Wednesday will feature more sunshine and warmer temperatures in 70s as high pressure continues to exert its influence over the region and the peak of the ridge aloft moves closer to the state.
1038 AM EDT Tue May 9 2023 A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic later today to bring showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler than normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday.
A cold front will exit southern Kentucky early this morning, pushing any lingering showers and storms out of the state. Tonight high pressure will build southward from the Great Lakes and supply us with mostly clear skies and a light northeast breeze. Temperatures will tumble into the lower 50s and upper 40s. Wednesday and Wednesday night high pressure over the Great Lakes will slide southeastward to the East Coast, keeping our weather dry. This weekend a cold front will approach from the west, further supporting the idea of scattered shower/storm chances.
646 AM EDT Tue May 9 2023 High pressure will move into the area today, bringing drier and eventually clearer conditions.
The axis of greatest moisture will remain over the eastern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads, where the highest rainfall totals are expected.
323 AM PDT Tue May 9 2023 A trough of low pressure will bring a low to moderate chance for showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms across the mountains late this afternoon through tonight. A broad upper trough remains over the region with one short wave lifting over the Pacific Northwest as another upstream short wave approaches off the northern California coast. Snow amounts up to 6 inches are possible over some of the higher peaks above 7000 feet. The trough will increase winds as well with strong gusts in the Mojave Slopes and desert zones. Conditions will be a little cooler today with high temperatures around 7 to 10 degrees below climatological averages for this time of the year. Dry weather returns on Wednesday as East Pacific ridging begins to build inland.
If clearing occurs during the afternoon highs could be a few degrees warmer. Between today and tomorrow, the gustiest winds (up to 25 mph) are expected to occur today west river with the showers as the trough moves through.
Breezy conditions can be expected through Wednesday along with cooling temperatures as a low pressure system moves over the region. A few light showers may occur over the higher terrain of Lincoln County on Wednesday.
Temperatures across the island chain have risen into the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. Relatively deep dry layer of air between 925 and 600 mb in conjunction with mean layer ridging will suppress much in the way of any vertical development today. Temperatures are on their way into the mid to upper 80s and with dew points in the lower 70s will keep conditions muggy.
Once these cloud patches move in it does aid in getting rid of the lower vsby fog.
Skies are mostly clear with just a few scattered altocumulus drifting along the southern edge of the jet streak that has been pushed northwestward ahead of the deepening West Coast trough coming ashore. Meanwhile height rises are expected to continue today with high pressure and drier air taking the wheel this afternoon. Temperatures should warm well into the 70's across the low valleys with a few 80's in southwest CO/southeast UT this afternoon. Clouds and moisture begin their return Wednesday morning on the wings of a jet streak rounding the base of the, now negatively tilted, trough pushing its way across the Great Basin. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph and a few higher gusts on the high terrain and from shower outflows can be expected.
755 AM EDT Tue May 9 2023 Dry weather will continue through most of this week as high pressure settles over the region.
524 AM PDT Tue May 9 2023 A compact low pressure system approaching from the northwest will bring stronger onshore flow spreading cooling inland through Wednesday, bringing stronger and gusty west winds to the mountains and deserts for tonight into Wednesday morning, with a chance for light precipitation from the coast to the mountains for tonight.
On Wednesday, a quick-moving trough will deliver cooler and windier conditions, along with a chance for a few rain or high elevation snow showers. A compact upper low will enter SOCAL near KLAX later tonight and move through Arizona on Wednesday. This low will drop our daytime temperatures at least 10 degrees, with the axis of stronger southwest shifting to the eastern CWA. Enough mid-level moisture and instability exists with this low to include chances of showers for most areas, but especially along and north of the I-40 corridor.
At first glance, this should be a dry forecast today with ridging overtaking the region. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge over the central U. with troughing on both coasts 00z Wed. This ridge builds into the upper Great Lakes 00z Thu while a trough moves into the Rockies. The trough then moves into the northern plains 00z Fri to 12z Fri. A couple backdoor cold fronts move through the area.
Easterly winds will keep the east coast a few degrees cooler in the mid 80s. (Today through Wednesday) Latest model solutions depict broad high pressure sprawling across the Western Atlantic gradually weakening during the next couple of days, but remaining mainly stationary. Pressure gradients will then decrease as the ridge weakens, with sfc winds decreasing to below 10 mph in general. The combination of persisting subsidence and lighter winds will allow for afternoon temperatures to climb into the low-mid 90s by this afternoon, warmest over the west coast. High temperatures will be a degree or two warmer on Wednesday.
Cool and unsettled weather remains in the forecast today, before drier and warmer weather returns later this week. A dusting up to 3 inches will be possible at the higher mountain peaks south of Interstate 80 today, and snow levels will generally be above 7000 feet. Temperatures will be trending a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with low to mid 70s forecast for the Valley, 60s to near 70 for the foothills and 40s to mid 60s for the mountains. After today, we shift our attention to dry and warming weather for the rest of the week, as upper level ridging builds back into the region. Wednesday will still be cool, but will trend a degree or two warmer than today with some onshore wind.
(Today through Wednesday) This morning rain showers and thunderstorms continue to move southeastward toward the FA through TN along a surface boundary ahead of a cold front. After the morning convection across our northern counties our next chance for convection will be after 18Z as a weak H500 disturbance and the aforementioned cold front works its way through the CWA.
1031 AM EDT Tue May 9 2023 High pressure will promote mostly dry weather through much of the week. Dry weather prevails through Wednesday as high pressure builds from northern Ontario province and Hudson Bay across the Great Lakes. Center of the high eventually makes its way to Appalachians to Carolinas late Wednesday night.
1023 AM EDT Tue May 9 2023 High pressure will move into the area today, bringing drier and eventually clearer conditions.
436 AM MDT Tue May 9 2023 A low pressure circulation is anticipated to move across the Northern Rockies from the southwest throughout today, producing rain showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure builds over the region in its place maintaining clear or mostly clear skies through the TAF period as well as setting up lighter (10kts or less) northeasterly wind. Combination of favorable jet support for subsidence and differential anticyclonic vorticity advection will allow for background forcing for a surface anticyclone regionally. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 60s inland with cooler readings near the Lakes.
High pressure was centered north of Lake Superior early this morning and extended south into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Low pressure was near the Twin Cities Metro area with a trough analyzed into northwestern Wisconsin. Models were having difficulty with this activity, but an overall weakening trend is expected into the daylight hours as the high pressure tries to become more established over the region.
645 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023 (Today through Wednesday) The expected MCS is materialized this afternoon, but was much slower than models had expected as the ridge to our south slowed it down. For Wednesday, we see the ridge build back into the region from the northeast as drier air filters in.
Early this morning, broad troughing extended over the western CONUS, with continued southwest flow aloft over the forecast area. A closed low was placed over southern Saskatchewan, while surface features were weak and undefined.
At the surface, the cold front responsible for our storms yesterday has cleared the CWA, with area surface obs all showing weak, northerly winds as high pressure settles into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This will help keep our weather calm and relatively cooler today, with temperatures this afternoon expected to top out about 5 degrees less than yesterday afternoon, but still slightly above climatological normals. Tonight, blowoff from convection over the Central Plains will likely prevent radiational cooling and keep temperatures slightly warmer than what we're experiencing this morning. As for temperatures, the shifting of the high will allow for low-level flow to become more southerly, advecting warmer air into the CWA.
Temperatures have already warmed into the 80s across southern portions of the area and are running 3-5 degrees warmer than yesterday. A cold front sagging in from the north should help to keep temperatures in check north of the Interstate 40 corridor. With such intense heat and abundant moisture, there is a chance of an isolated thunderstorm of two, but storms will be battling a weak ridge aloft to develop. Another warm front will stall mid-week, enhancing rain conditions for another warm, wet weekend.
253 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023 Quiet weather continues this afternoon with high pressure over the area. More persistent cloud cover in the western UP should keep temperatures generally in the lower to mid 40s overnight. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge over the central U. with troughing on both coasts 00z Wed. This ridge builds into the upper Great Lakes 00z Thu while a trough moves into the Rockies. The trough then moves into the northern plains 00z Fri to 12z Fri. A couple backdoor cold fronts move through the area.
137 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023 High pressure will move into the area today, bringing drier and eventually clearer conditions.
In the meantime, a weak upper level trough over Texas will continue to lift northeastward making it's way into the forecast area late Wednesday night.
Tonight and Wednesday, high pressure located over the Great Lakes along with upper level ridging will keep quiet weather across the area.
That said, the actual synoptic cold front remains to our north as of this writing, and could still initiate a few showers/thunderstorms as it progresses south-southwestward through our CWFA late this afternoon and this evening. Otherwise, low-level flow will gradually veer to NE for the majority of the region by late this evening in the wake of the backdoor cold front, and with clearing skies and lows predicted to range from the u50s (NE) to l60s (SW), some patchy fog may develop during the early morning hours near large bodies of water.
High pressure builds into the area later today, with dry weather and seasonable temperatures returning through the end of the week. High pressure/ridging is building into the region and expecting a sunny afternoon for most of the area. High pressure will dominate tonight and skies should remain mostly clear. Quiet weather on Wednesday will continue as high pressure continues to track through the region. A strong ridge of high pressure centered over the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys will slowly slide eastward through the period.
(Rest of Today) Regional surface observations this morning indicate that the synoptic cold front (which has been discussed for the past couple of days) is currently located in the vicinity of the TN-KY border, and should continue to advance southward through the TN Valley this afternoon.
A deep upper level trough will approach the high plains Wednesday night.
1214 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023 Dry and stable conditions held within expansive high pressure maintains mostly clear skies through the taf period. Combination of favorable jet support for subsidence and differential anticyclonic vorticity advection will allow for background forcing for a surface anticyclone regionally. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 60s inland with cooler readings near the Lakes.
239 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Weakly forced environment with a weak warm front draped over southern MN/WI will keep isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms in the forecast through Wednesday.
Tomorrow will be slightly cooler with high temperatures in the mid to upper-80s.
Lows tonight range from the lower 60s well inland to the upper 60s at the immediate coast, and patchy fog will likely form during the late night hours.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the middle 50s across the I-64 corridor to the lower 60s over the MO Bootheel. This will initiate some isolated to scattered showers or thundershowers here during the heat of the day with dew points creeping back into the lower 60s here. High temperatures will reach into the lower to middle 80s.
Showers associated with an upper disturbance were shifting north into the higher elevations of central Idaho and Baker County this morning. Forecast was updated earlier to account for the lower snow levels and light accumulations.
315 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023 Dry high pressure will build into the Great Lakes tonight and Wednesday bringing clear skies and comfortable humidity with light winds.
Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 60s over inland areas and in the mid to upper 60s for areas closer to the shore.
318 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather and seasonable temperatures through the end of the week and into this weekend. High pressure and dry conditions with seasonable temperatures is expected through the period. Our current active growing season counties will be a little warmer, and although some isolated/patchy frost will be possible, it will not be widespread enough to warrant a frost advisory. Tomorrow night will remain mostly clear, but temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than tonight, so no frost headlines are expected at this time.
Continued WAA as the thermal ridge pushes eastward will help allow for shower and thunderstorm development late Wednesday afternoon through the evening primarily in far northeastern ND and northern MN. This is especially true with the relatively low freezing levels early in the warm season.
The aforementioned low pressure will move off to our northeast overnight.
1230 PM PDT Tue May 9 2023 A trough of low pressure will bring a low to moderate chance for showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms across the mountains late this afternoon through tonight. Mild conditions prevail again today as the area remains under the influence of an upper level trough. By mid-week an area of high pressure will set-up over the west coast bringing much warmer than average temperatures and dry conditions for the region.
Some cirrus will continue to spill across the upper ridge at times tonight. The main driver of the weather over the next 3-7 days will be an amplifying trough over the eastern Pacific. Currently, an elongated upper level ridge is situated over a majority of the CONUS. However, as this low deepens west of CA, broad WAA will induce height rises over the Plains, leading to amplified ridging over the Missouri to Ohio Vallies.
A cloudline did develop this afternoon and has anchored itself almost right on top of the island chain, especially the Lower Keys. Our mainly dry and quiet weather continues to be from mean layer ridging parked nearly overhead of us.
Upper ridging continues to be the dominant feature in the overall pattern for the forecast period. A meso convective complex over the Gulf coast of Texas will help fuel a mid level vorticity maximum that gets trapped under the ridge to the west which could fuel more storm activity tonight and tomorrow. As the mid level disturbance progresses along the upper ridge, and moisture transport increases, activity should spread northward.
(This evening through Wednesday) High pressure off the southeast coast will continue to influence the state with south to southwesterly low level flow through the short term. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 80s, but with humidities present, the heat index will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s today.
330 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023 Quiet weather is in store through the short term period as high pressure remains overhead.
338 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023 Behind a cold front tonight, temperatures will be near to slightly below normal Wednesday.
327 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023 Cold front near the Kentucky/Tennessee border continues to press south, with a slowly dissipating stratus deck behind it. Expect skies to continue clearing through this evening as high pressure over the Great Lakes builds in. Mild spring weather continues on Wednesday with plenty of sunshine and temps just a few degrees warmer than today.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) High pressure continues to be the primary influence on the weather over the next couple of days, leading to generally quiet weather. In addition to the high pressure, substantially dry air is depicted aloft off of the 12Z sounding especially above 850mb. Therefore, the overall lack of moisture and the high pressure influence will keep conditions dry and hot over the next couple days.
1217 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023 (Rest of Today) Regional surface observations this morning indicate that the synoptic cold front (which has been discussed for the past couple of days) is currently located in the vicinity of the TN-KY border, and should continue to advance southward through the TN Valley this afternoon.
Held pops back on Wednesday closer to the low with no real trough or front forming ahead of the low in the latest models.
A large area of high pressure building from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes, drifting toward the southern lakes tonight. Mid afternoon dewpoints in the lower/middle 30s give a proxy to the low temperature potential tonight. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Main story for the rest of this work week is expanding mid/upper level ridging into the western Great Lakes, with this ridge axis centered between western Conus and northeast Canada centered trough axes. Airmass will continue to modify under that deep layer high pressure, allowing highs on Wednesday to punch well into the 70s across interior sections of northern lower Michigan.
Bulk shear values are as high as 35 kts so that the shear profile is favorable for supercells, with very large hail, with best chances from Rush County southward to Pratt County where the highest dewpoints and best convergence reside. Isolated storms may form on the dry line west of Dodge City; but convergence is rather weak given that western Kansas is near an upper level ridge. A deep upper level trough will approach the high plains Wednesday night.
The upper trough shifts east and moves through the region Wednesday accompanied by a strong vorticity axis.
325 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023 As of 15Z frontal analysis, a weak cold front is slowly tracking across the CWA. Also with the latest frontal analysis, high pressure is building in from the northwest into the Ohio Valley. This building dome of high pressure will aid in the dissipation of the clouds as drier air works into the region. With upper-level ridging building into the region, the short-term forecast is rather quiet.
Minor localized flooding will be possible over urbanized locations in Baton Rouge with the highest probability of street flooding remaining over New Orleans through the afternoon commute. If clouds decrease across the region, fog may again develop, but but confidence is a bit on the lower side. Speaking of Wednesday, an upper level wave of energy/vort around the weak upper low over the lower Red River Valley will move over western portions of the state. This will likely cause additional shower and thunderstorm development across the region with the highest QPF values along and west of the I55 corridor. This upper level impulse looks to merge or becomes absorbed in the larger scale upper level trough over the high plains and Rockies.
A well-formed low pressure circulation spinning over southwest Montana is sending moisture into central Idaho and western Montana this afternoon. As moisture wraps around north of the center of the low, some deep instability will fuel a 30-50 percent chance for thunderstorms this afternoon over northwest Montana. As the low pressure responsible for todayâs rain moves east on Wednesday, a deeper trough of low pressure moves across the Great Basin towards the Four Corners.
Large scale ridging and strengthening high pressure will likely keep the area dry through Wednesday night.
Expect drier air today behind an exiting trough. Look for partly to mostly cloudy conditions today with temperatures 4 to 8 degrees cooler than normal.
Storms are anticipated to move slowly southeastward over the next few hours as a cold front pushes towards north Georgia. The weakening cold front will advance through the forecast area during the overnight hours before stalling across the southern portion of the forecast area tomorrow. After starting the morning in the low 60s in north Georgia and mid 60s in central Georgia, afternoon highs are expected to be in the low 80s in northeast Georgia and mid to upper 80s elsewhere across the forecast area.
328 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023 Temperatures now reside in the upper 60s under clear skies with light northerly flow under the influence of high pressure. Longwave ridging over the central CONUS will amplify tonight and will extend into the Great Lakes through the remainder of the midweek period. This will result in some general persistence with the forecast for the next several days given the continued stability under a reinforced high pressure system.
The upper level ridge will remain over the region the rest of the week into the start of the weekend.
Otherwise, should see largely dry conditions return overnight as weak upper level ridging builds overhead. That being said, may see a few showers creep into NE Nebraska prior to daybreak Wednesday ahead of an advancing sfc warm front. Look for upper level ridging to amplify throughout the day Wednesday as a trough deepens over the Four Corners region. Highs during this time will be a touch warmer than today, as temperatures rise in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Otherwise, expect chances for showers and storms to gradually increase late Wednesday afternoon/evening as the upper level trough ejects northeastward into the central Plains.
308 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023 As of 15Z frontal analysis, a weak cold front is slowly tracking across the CWA. Also with the latest frontal analysis, high pressure is building in from the northwest into the Ohio Valley. This building dome of high pressure will aid in the dissipation of the clouds as drier air works into the region. With upper-level ridging building into the region, the short-term forecast is rather quiet.