Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A mature low pressure system in the East Pacific is supporting a cold front currently located about 100 mi off the coast of the Bay Area.
Weak upper ridging then builds over the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico and southeast states late tonight and Monday, bringing a return of mostly sunny skies. This will eventually set up a ridge across the southeast states on Monday and bring a light southeasterly wind flow to much of the forecast area. High temperatures on Monday should be a couple of degrees cooler. /22 An upper level ridge builds north over the eastern Conus through mid week, with upper level high pressure becoming centered over the northeastern Gulf coast in the same time frame. Subsidence from the strong upper ridge will keep temperatures well above seasonal norms into the weekend.
636 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 (Today through Monday) High pressure is starting to build in from the northwest following our very recent dry fropa.
The low clouds should begin to lift as the sun rises.
544 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 After cool early morning low temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s, ample sunshine will warm afternoon highs to near seasonal normals in the lower to middle 60s today. With high pressure drifting overhead, winds will be considerably lighter than they were yesterday. Thanks to ample sunshine efficiently heating the dry airmass, temperatures will rebound from chilly morning lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s to reach afternoon highs in the lower to middle 60s. As the high shifts east of the region, a light SE return flow will develop tonight. high temperatures will climb into the lower 70s.
These conditions will be short- lived however as a closed area of low pressure will start dropping into the Great Basin later this evening and overnight. As the ridge that brought the nice weather today moves to our east, upper level flow will become southwesterly and also strengthen in response to a tightening gradient and some stronger winds aloft for Monday. By Monday night, the low over the extreme southwestern CONUS will be centered roughly over southern California.
A low pressure system slowly digging over California and Nevada will bring breezy to windy conditions and a significant drop in temperatures by Monday. A change is on the way to end our prolonged period of warm and tranquil weather as a closed low pressure system near northern California this morning digs down the CA/NV border and ends up over southern California Monday then drops over northern Baja Monday night. The rest of the region will generally see gusts of 20 to 30 mph this afternoon and overnight, though gusts around 40 mph along ridgetops in the Spring Mountains will be possible tonight.
720 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2023 (Today through Monday) Calm and pleasant weather conditions are expected to continue on Sunday and into Monday as well as a currently weak ridge over the area begins to amplify not just over Florida but over the entire eastern CONUS. PWATs will continue to hang around 1 inch or even less in many areas across South Florida with much of that moisture being elevated closer to the jet stream level and ample dry air in the low to mid levels. Winds will start to increase in the latter half of Monday as the overall pressure gradient strengthens due to Hurricane Tammy stalling northeast of Puerto Rico in the Atlantic and the ridge over us.
Low pressure will move into the waters early this morning with some rain, and light to moderate winds and seas.
249 AM PDT Sun Oct 22 2023 A return of fall weather this week as a series of cooler storms move through the region. Today we're going to have a cold front sweep through, dampening high temperatures this afternoon. The rest of this week will be much cooler with increasing chances for more precip.
High pressure centered to our north early today will slide east of our region on Monday. Temperatures today will be much cooler than yesterday, with highs only in the middle 60s in our north and east, to around 70 degrees in southeast Missouri. Lows tonight will be seasonable in the lower to middle 40s, then there will be a significant warm up Monday with highs in the middle 70s to around 80s degrees.
617 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 (Today through Monday) The mid-level ridge continues to nudge southeast across the Gulf of Mexico as low pressure builds into Baja California, strengthening southwesterly flow aloft across Texas. Temperatures remain well above normal, with lows in the low to mid 70s and highs in the low to mid 90s.
946 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Expect cooler temperatures today as afternoon highs range from the low 70s to low 80s. Unfortunately, this trend will not last long as winds tomorrow advect a warmer airmass into the Mid- South. For the next several days, dry weather with temperatures in the low to mid 80s is expected. ANS Enjoy slightly cooler temperatures today, but above normal readings are expected through the upcoming work week.
238 AM PDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Cooler conditions with shower and thunderstorm chances today.
Forecast Highlights: - Warm through Monday before beginning to trend cooler. Forecast Discussion: Northwest flow component in place behind a departing broad scale trough over the Great Lakes and New England regions. A broad but flattening ridge is in place over the northern Rockies and Inner Mountain West regions. The pattern becomes more progressive as the ridge over the the west continues to flatten. A lee trough becomes more pronounced through the day today into Monday resulting in steady WAA and a LLJ into Monday morning.
Anticyclonic flow at 500 to 850 MB will create favorable conditions for mostly sunny skies and result in daytime high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 80s.
Enjoy slightly cooler temperatures today, but above normal readings are expected through the upcoming work week.
(Today through Monday) The mid-level ridge continues to nudge southeast across the Gulf of Mexico as low pressure builds into Baja California, strengthening southwesterly flow aloft across Texas. Temperatures remain well above normal, with lows in the low to mid 70s and highs in the low to mid 90s.
Weak upper ridging then builds over the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico and southeast states late tonight and Monday, bringing a return of mostly sunny skies. This will eventually set up a ridge across the southeast states on Monday and bring a light southeasterly wind flow to much of the forecast area. High temperatures on Monday should be a couple of degrees cooler.
612 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper air analysis this early morning depicts a wavy pattern to the west of the region as the mid/upper-level ridge has dampened almost entirely, with the two distinct features being Tropical Storm Norma moving over northwestern Mexico and a vorticity lobe rotating over the north-central Rocky Mountains. The net result from the decaying tropical system in addition to the amplification of the mean troughing to the west will not only maintain the cirrus shield but result in lee cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado and into northeastern New Mexico/Raton Mesa vicinity. The boundary-layer will once again become well-mixed this afternoon across the Caprock while the arrival of the 700 mb trough (resulting in southwesterly flow at that pressure level) will advect a warm nose of theta-e advection which will shunt PBL depths.
Highs will generally range from the low 80s along the coast to the low 90s out west both days.
On the heels of this morning activity, aggressive clearing and continued WAA will provide a very warm afternoon, with Monday temperatures soaring into the lower to middle 80s.
Clear sky is then expected to hold tonight as high pressure settles overhead and to the east by Monday morning. Weak cold frontal boundary evident early this morning draped across the metro Detroit corridor effectively clears the area to the south by daybreak. This will work to offset a cooler than average resident thermal profile. High pressure then builds across the area tonight. Weak low to mid level ridging featured initially heading into the start of the work week. Trajectory of this moist plume reliant on positioning of associated 40 knot 850 mb southwest flow, a key to whether a brief elevated convective response along the advancing warm frontal zone can focus locally or remain just to the west/north during this time.
234 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023 A low pressure system is currently tracking southward along the West Coast. The ridge that was over our region has broken down, but persistent southwest has finally brought in some moisture thanks to the low. Winds increase tomorrow as the low pressure continues southward.
Warmer temperatures will return on Monday and last through midweek with highs in the low to mid 80s.
(This afternoon through Monday Night) Northeasterly winds have brought cooler temperatures today, but over the next couple of hours we'll probably see some places in our southwest flirting with the mid 70s. An upper ridge axis will move east on Monday, which will allow for another warm day with widespread temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
(This evening through Monday) A strong upper low currently located over northern California will make its way southeastward into southern California during the overnight hours. The upper low will continue diving southeastward into Baja California during the day on Monday.
325 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2023 High pressure building across the area overnight will result in dry weather and chilly temperatures. This will allow temperatures to drop to lows in the lower/mid 30s for most spots by sunrise Monday. Have continued a freeze warning across the north and northeast counties where the probability of sub-freezing temperatures is greatest. Have a frost advisory across the remainder of the area - where sheltered and low-lying locations may dip to freezing but the probability of widespread freezing temperatures is lower.
351 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2023 High pressure builds into the area tonight through midweek, remaining in the vicinity through the end of the week with quiet weather continuing. This will continue to build into the area as high pressure builds in from the north. Lows in the lower to mid 40s with colder spots possibly dropping into the upper 30s. Winds will be lighter Mon due to the building high pressure.
Temperatures from the low to upper 30s are expected across our northern areas, allowing for a Frost Advisory to be in place from 2 AM EDT tonight through 10 AM EDT Monday morning. With high pressure to our northeast tomorrow, southerly flow will return in the low levels and temperatures will climb across the area.
The disturbance passing through Northern California continues to bring cooler conditions to the San Joaquin Valley today.
Wx map shows weak high pressure over the Northern Gulf of Mexico, keeping a weak pressure gradient over the area.
(This evening through Monday) The pattern aloft has become a bit less amplified with an upper low over New England while ridging has built over much of the Mississippi River Valley Region. Longwave ridging will remain just to our west through the rest of the afternoon while a weak surface front continues to move south across the area. The longwave ridge aloft will move to our east later in the day Monday as a more southwest flow pattern develops aloft. The forecast will call for gradually increasing clouds through the day from the west and southwest with high temperatures from the mid 70s in the higher elevations east to the mid 80s west, central and south.
1212 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 (Rest of Today) A dry reinforcing cold front has now moved south of the central TN Valley this Sun morning, with a light N/NW flow in place following the passage of the front. High pressure over the OH Valley is also starting to nudge southward in the wake of the front, as lingering cloud cover begins to diminish/taper off to the SE. With the light N/NW winds in place, temps this afternoon will struggle to surpass the lower/mid 70s for most spots.
(Rest of today through Monday) Pleasant weather conditions continue through the short term as ridging slowly builds over the southeastern US. Overnight temperatures could drop to the lower 60s over the interior and Lake Okechobee areas, but will most probably remain near the low-to-mid 70s along the coastlines.
The region will be in cool and dry northwesterly flow through late this evening before high pressure migrates overhead. Couldn't rule out a few lingering sprinkles or perhaps even a flurry along the highest ridgetops in force ascent upslope late this afternoon, but measurable precipitation is not expected. Dew points dipping in the lower to mid 30s, clearing skies and winds going light heading into dawn should promote highly effective radiational cooling yielding frost and freeze conditions, especially across SE OH where dew point dip first, and in any cold air drainage. Despite a cool start with lows generally in the lower to mid 30s, ample sunshine will allow for afternoon temperatures to rise into the lower to mid 60s. A high pressure system will dominate the weather for Monday through mid week providing dry weather.
Opted to use a blend of Sunday's low and the NBM to account for the possibility of cooler temperatures peppered throughout the region. Generally tonight's temps will sit in the low to mid 50s for southeast AL and southwest GA, while the FL counties are in the mid to upper 50s to near 60 along the coast. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s in southeast AL and southwest GA counties and in the low to mid 80s for the Fl counties.
1037 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 In the wake of yesterday's dry cold front, we can expect temperatures to remain several degrees cooler. Made a small adjustment to the high temperatures today to account for a bit more dry air mixing down over our southwest, which will allow temperatures to flirt with the mid 70s in that area. (Today through Monday) High pressure is starting to build in from the northwest following our very recent dry fropa.
1234 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper air analysis this early morning depicts a wavy pattern to the west of the region as the mid/upper-level ridge has dampened almost entirely, with the two distinct features being Tropical Storm Norma moving over northwestern Mexico and a vorticity lobe rotating over the north-central Rocky Mountains. The net result from the decaying tropical system in addition to the amplification of the mean troughing to the west will not only maintain the cirrus shield but result in lee cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado and into northeastern New Mexico/Raton Mesa vicinity. The boundary-layer will once again become well-mixed this afternoon across the Caprock while the arrival of the 700 mb trough (resulting in southwesterly flow at that pressure level) will advect a warm nose of theta-e advection which will shunt PBL depths.
Meanwhile, an initial cold front tonight brings the first wave of cooler air and rain showers.
High pressure will settle over the region tonight resulting in dry conditions for much of the new work week. There is a high confidence that winds decouple in the valleys where the freeze warning has been drawn which will allow temperatures to drop to or just below freezing. There remain some uncertainty in wind speeds south and east of the ridge axis falls. Shaped the low temperatures for tonight close to the cool NBM values. After a cold start Monday morning, high pressure will provide a pleasant Monday afternoon. High temperatures Monday after will range from the upper 50s in the mountains to the lower 60s in the Piedmont.
High pressure will settle over the region tonight resulting in dry conditions for much of the new work week. There is a high confidence that winds decouple in the valleys where the freeze warning has been drawn which will allow temperatures to drop to or just below freezing. There remain some uncertainty in wind speeds south and east of the ridge axis falls. Shaped the low temperatures for tonight close to the cool NBM values. After a cold start Monday morning, high pressure will provide a pleasant Monday afternoon. High temperatures Monday after will range from the upper 50s in the mountains to the lower 60s in the Piedmont. Dry High pressure will reside over the region through the period.
Highs generally reach into the lower 70s (east) to upper 70s (west). Expect afternoon highs to reach into the lower 80s for most of the area as 850 mb temperatures reach around 16 C.
Water vapor imagery showing weak upper level trof moving across northern Colorado this afternoon with weak ridging building in tonight. There is a few light showers moving over higher terrain bordering Wyoming and Nebraska this afternoon with the trof which will diminish by early this evening. The flow aloft will shift southwesterly on Monday as next west coast trof dives off the southern California coast late Monday. Temperatures will be warmer again given the warming southwest flow pattern.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will gradually translate north and east of the region tonight. This will bring a wind shift to E-SE winds, and slightly warmer low temperatures, falling into lower to middle 40s. Southerly flow will continue across the region on Monday, advecting warmer air.
NW flow aloft will transition to Wly flow by Mon night as ridge axis associated with upper ridge building over north over the eastern CONUS, inches closer to the state but remains just to our west.
Upper ridging gradually begins to build across the north-central gulf coast keeping the area embedded within zonal flow aloft. With the high level clouds, might be a bit more difficult to radiationally cool quickly tonight, but still expecting us to dip into the middle to upper 50's for most spots, with area beaches seeing lower 60's.
1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Expect cooler temperatures today as afternoon highs range from the low 70s to low 80s. Unfortunately, this trend will not last long as winds tomorrow advect a warmer airmass into the Mid- South. For the next several days, dry weather with temperatures in the low to mid 80s is expected. ANS Enjoy slightly cooler temperatures today, but above normal readings are expected through the upcoming work week.
Drying out Monday with rain ending across the area, though moist onshore flow persists behind the exiting trough.
This will keep lows quite above normal for this time of year with many in the low to mid 60s. Eastern half of the region stays in the low to mid 70s with temperatures a few degrees higher to the west where less rain and cloud cover are expected. There is still some uncertainty on just how far west some of the higher coverage and heavier rain will setup, but areas under the highest PoPs on Monday and into Monday night could see 1-1.
An upper level ridge over the Bay of Campeche is helping to stream these clouds in a clockwise fashion through the Southeastern United States/North Gulf Coast, south to the Keys. Temperature across the Florida Keys are in the lower 80s with a few pockets of mid-80s with the Big Pine Key RAWS reaching 84 degrees. At the surface, high pressure is moving into the Eastern United States while strengthening resulting in marine platforms observing north to northeast breezes at 5 to 10 knots with the Island Chain observing 5 to 10 mph. Then, for the rest of the week, the weather can be summed up real quick as a rather large, expansive, and strengthening high pressure moves slowly across the Eastern United States this week.
Most temps at 2 pm are in the lower 80s. The west winds are ahead of a weak, dry cold front moving southward across southeast GA this afternoon and evening, with the front moving into northeast FL by late evening, and then will be near our southwest portion by sunrise Monday. Lows again tonight in the lower to mid 50s, with near 60 at the coast.
1213 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 (Today through Monday) The mid-level ridge continues to nudge southeast across the Gulf of Mexico as low pressure builds into Baja California, strengthening southwesterly flow aloft across Texas. Temperatures remain well above normal, with lows in the low to mid 70s and highs in the low to mid 90s.
The region will be in cool and dry northwesterly flow through late this evening before high pressure migrates overhead. Couldn't rule out a few lingering sprinkles or perhaps even a flurry along the highest ridgetops in force ascent upslope late this afternoon, but measurable precipitation is not expected. Dew points dipping in the lower to mid 30s, clearing skies and winds going light heading into dawn should promote highly effective radiational cooling yielding frost and freeze conditions, especially across SE OH where dew point dip first, and in any cold air drainage. Despite a cool start with lows generally in the lower to mid 30s, ample sunshine will allow for afternoon temperatures to rise into the lower to mid 60s.
At the surface, ridging was centered over WI/IL. Lacy (Monday through Sunday) Guidance indicates potential for some warm advection showers on Monday as we transition to a warmer more humid airmass over the region.
Additional showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, are possible this afternoon into this evening as a strong upper level trough moves through.
350 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Dry high pressure is expected to prevail across the region through this week. At the surface, High pressure centered over the OH Valley in the evening will wedge down the lee side of the southern Appalachians overnight. A deep layer ridge is expected to build over the southeast U.
Low level moisture around the periphery of this high and along the remnants of the weak front will trend upward and may result in another bout of low clouds and fog across central LA and southwest MS late tonight into Monday morning. /DL/ By Monday night, broad ridging will continue across the southeast, with a high pressure forming near the mid-Atlantic coast.
217 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2023 High pressure will remain in place for the coming week, with dry conditions prevailing.
Locally and brief freezing temperatures of 30 to 32 degrees east of Highway 31.
This set up leads to our coldest morning of the season so far with temperatures likely to fall to the lower 30s for most areas with some upper 20s more likely for the interior Thumb and Saginaw Valley. Slowly rebounding thickness field and retreating thermal trough should still nudge highs up to the mid 50s despite the clouds. Nose of 850mb LLJ moves in Monday night with an attendant chance (25-35%) of showers as the forcing attempts to activate the elevated warm front across the north.
1201 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 In the wake of yesterday's dry cold front, we can expect temperatures to remain several degrees cooler. Made a small adjustment to the high temperatures today to account for a bit more dry air mixing down over our southwest, which will allow temperatures to flirt with the mid 70s in that area. (Today through Monday) High pressure is starting to build in from the northwest following our very recent dry fropa.
(Tonight) High pressure out of the OH Valley continues to build into much of the region in the wake of a departing frontal boundary to the south. This is translating into a weak influx of slightly cooler air, as sfc flow becomes entrenched out of the NNE. A broad upper trough axis also continues to exit the NE/mid Atlantic states to the east, as weak upper ridging builds over the western/central Gulf states.
Temperatures will be cooler with cloud cover and potential rainfall in the area, with highs mainly in the mid and upper 70s.
402 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Calm, cool and and partly cloudy conditions tonight will be followed by a sharp warm-up tomorrow as temperatures surge into the lower 70s on the nose of a breezy southerly wind.