Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front is expected to approach from the north. It will be considerably cooler near Lake Michigan. Tuesday Night Through Monday For most of the period, the upper air pattern will be stable and feature a ridge across central North America and troughs on both coasts of the United States. The ridge will generally lead to below normal precipitation while temperatures will be on a roller coaster ride.
1215 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night ) Cloud cover overnight has kept temps a few deg warmer than seen yesterday morning.
At the surface, high pressure was located across the northeastern tier of the US and southeastern Canada.
1246 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure builds in from the north today in the wake of a cold front, setting up another dry period of weather early this week with seasonable high temperatures and cool overnight lows.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper low moving into the Pacific Northwest/southern BC will push the upper ridge eastward today. Today will be the warmest day of the week with the ridge overhead and compressional heating ahead of a front/lee trof. Cooling aloft with the slight eastward push of the upper low will result in instability over central Montana to drive thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Upper trof remains anchored over the Pacific Northwest through the remainder of the week, while digging southward. PATTERN: High pressure ridge today lingers just enough to provide hot temperatures and slightly humid air to set the stage for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, riding a cold front from the west.
(The rest of this afternoon and Tonight) Broad surface ridging remains planted over much of the region this afternoon, giving way to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and generally quiet weather for the rest of the day. The ridge should slowly drift a little eastward tonight as a weak upper level low slides along the OK/KS border during the overnight period. Lows tonight will likely be a couple degrees warmer than last night, but still below normal, with most locations dipping into the mid 50s. Bowlan (Tuesday through Monday) Shower/storm chances will creep into the area on Tuesday as the weak upper low traverses the region.
Temperatures are currently trending around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this time yesterday for portions of the Valley. For the rest of the week upper level troughing will influence the region. Beware area waterways! This trough will also bring the return of shower and thunderstorm chances, mainly to the mountains of the Coastal Range, Southern Cascades, and higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
A mid level ridge will be from Coahuila into the Texas Big Bend tonight through Tuesday night. The highs will be a degree or two warmer on Tuesday. Surface winds are expected to be little higher Tuesday night, so will go with lows a degree or two warmer with no mention of fog.
249 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure remains in control over the Central to Eastern U. Tuesday will be a touch warmer as highs reach the low to mid 80s with continued low humidity.
For tonight, expect lows to range in the low/mid 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. On Tuesday, highs temps should be a little cooler for the northeast half of the forecast region, especially over portions of south central AL east of I-65 as the developing CAD brings in cooler air from the northeast. Currently, highs on Tuesday are forecast to range from the low to mid 70s over northeastern portions of the region to the lower 80s down near the coast and in the mid 80s over interior southeast MS.
1216 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night) After yesterday's cooler than normal temperatures, we will begin to turn up the thermostat as winds shift from the east to southeast through the short term.
Overnight lows in the lower 50s expected, with continued concern for areas more prone to radiational cooling to see lows in the upper 40s. Building ridging on Tuesday will allow temperatures to rise rapidly tomorrow, with highs in the 80s across much of the area.
Decent buoyancy and support of a few mesocyclones, large hail up to ping pong size cannot be ruled out. Thunderstorms will generally move west to east through tonight and the potential for a tornado or two would increase later this evening off the Caprock where the low level jet will pick up. Warmer temperatures are possible off the Caprock where cloud cover will linger a bit longer following the storms tonight. Thus a weak trough axis will develop again tomorrow along the western Caprock and be the focal point for convective initiation during the afternoon hours.
150 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure building into the area will be the dominate weather feature through mid-week bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
Aloft, we see a sharpening, almost Omega-like block look to the pattern, as troffing West and East sandwhiches ridging across the Central U.
At the surface, a low pressure over the FL panhandle gradually tracks further east through tonight and pushes a surface front further off to our south and east. On Tuesday, the trough moves into our area with the best forcing confined to the south to southeastern portion of the area. For tonight, expect lows to range in the low/mid 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. On Tuesday, highs temps should be a little cooler for the northeast half of the forecast region, especially over portions of south central AL east of I-65 as the developing CAD brings in cooler air from the northeast. Currently, highs on Tuesday are forecast to range from the low to mid 70s over northeastern portions of the region to the lower 80s down near the coast and in the mid 80s over interior southeast MS.
Temperatures will be cooler tonight than we have seen in several weeks. There is a 20-30 percent probability of a light frost in the typical cold spots in the Missoula, Bitterroot, Flathead, and Mission valleys, and 50-60 percent probability of near to just below freezing for the Seeley/Swan and Dixie Idaho.
A inverted trough axis continues to become more well defined extending northwest from it this afternoon. However, shift a weak upper low to our west eastward this evening. Models are suggesting that this enhances the lift over our southeastern areas along the inverted trough axis as it moves east ahead of the upper low, where the airmass is not as worked over and instability is higher (due to moisture convergence). So additional showers and isolated thunderstorms could redevelop after midnight and spread northward again ahead of the weak upper low. It will depend on the exact track of the upper low. For now, brought 30 to 60 PoP mainly back into the area from the southeast overnight (with the highest PoP over our far southeastern counties).
Higher dew points are working north and we are seeing 1000-1500 j/kg of MLCAPE with the highest CAPE west of I-24 and south of I-40. If storms overcome that dry air it will enhance the mid-level lapse rates and we will have to watch out for the potential for some gusty winds mainly as thunderstorms collapse in this low shear environment. The short wave trough will be slow to push east tomorrow and that will keep a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but overall it will be a dry day.
156 PM MDT Mon May 22 2023 Western NOAM ridge will slowly push east this week as active SW flow ensues. Upper trough will remain anchored in the western CONUS supporting several weak impulses into the region. Upper ridge will continue to shift east with semi-unsettled SW flow setting up Tues, biasing east some each day.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Upper air analysis this morning showed a low amplitude ridge moving over northeastern Mexico and west Texas with west-northwesterly flow over Texas. Temperatures this afternoon are five to ten degrees warmer than 24 hours ago under mainly clear skies. Boundary layer flow will be from the southeast bringing warmer air to South Central Texas. Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be three to five degrees warmer than today. The mid-level ridge will amplify tonight and tomorrow turning the flow to northwesterly. We don't expect any significant change in the low levels with the warm moist airmass staying in place. This will lead to warm day with highs about five degrees warmer than today.
227 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure provides dry weather through Monday.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) A weak upper level ridge stretches across the southern tier of states with a closed low over the NW. A trough associated with this low will rotate onto the West Coast Tuesday as the ridge strengthens across NM and TX. Trough will begin to move into the Great Basin Tuesday night. Temperatures will be much warmer Tuesday under the ridge with widespread highs in the low to mid 90s. Scattered showers and storms developed before noon over the higher elevations from the Davis Mtns to near GDP.
Otherwise, the main storm concern looks to focus during the mid to late evening time frame across southwestern Oklahoma/western-north Texas as convection slides off the High Plains.
Temps near the immediate coast and in the heart of the urban heat island may struggle to dip below 70 while our northern-most communities are expected to drop into the low 60s. The zonal pattern aloft today will evolve into a more amplified pattern tomorrow resulting in a modest increase in mid/upper ridging. Areas near the immediate coast are expected to be a little cooler in the low/mid 80s.
The most recent RAP solution for vertically integrated smoke suggests the high altitude smoke overhead will remain quite thick through the night, thinning toward daybreak. Model soundings show mixing depths up to 6-7k feet which will support afternoon highs into the low 80s.
This should allow for slightly cooler temperatures than last night, where lows still managed to dropped into the upper 50s and lower 60s despite mostly cloudy skies. So for tonight, decided to go a few degrees cooler on low temps, although temps in our northern zones could fall closer to last night's due to the passing cloud cover. There will be an upper trough trying to backdoor into the region during the afternoon hours from the SE CONUS/Lower Mississippi Valley, but thinking any precip from this system will remain east of the area.
This afternoon, the NAM 4k, WRF FV3 and NSSL WRF have convection popping up across northern WI and the interior of the UP, though the low level and upper levels struggle to saturate per BUFKIT soundings and GOES-16 water vapor imagery. SPC RAP Mesoanalysis shows 500 J/kg of SBCAPE over the central UP, so it isn't out of the realm of possibility if enough moisture is present and convection initiates that some thunder is possible, but left it out of the grids due to the high uncertainty in initiation. Sustained warm advection in the low to mid levels will help temperatures recover into the 70s today despite sustained smoke aloft from wildfires in Canada.
Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s, with highs around 90.
Temperatures will remain warmer than normal for the period as H850 temps continue in the 15-20C range.
Further south, lift from the trough is generating areas of low and mid level cloud cover.
During the latter part of the week, an inverted trough is is expected to move over the region while a frontal boundary propagates through at the surface resulting in additional moisture and instability across the forecast area.
For Tuesday, there's very slight warming and also probably a little less smoke, so slightly warmer temperatures look good.
253 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023 The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure remains posted up in Quebec and weak northerly flow remain at the surface. This will probably lead to a little less of a disparity in the ridges and valleys for overnight lows. However, again a nearby trough and slight uptick in moisture should yield a little more afternoon cumulus. The trough is set up more across central KY and therefore perhaps a few isolated showers develop. Given this will lean toward the fifth percentile of the NBM once again, with lows in the valleys around 50 and perhaps low to mid 50s on the ridges. High pressure will be in place for the vast majority of the forecast period. Under the regime of high pressure, dry weather and sunny skies are expected with generally light northerly winds.
1054 AM PDT Mon May 22 2023 The weather will be quieter through the work week with cooler temperatures. Today through Tuesday night: Compact upper level low center remains within close proximity to the British Columbia Border through Tuesday. The upper level low is shifted a bit more to the north Tuesday thus allowing for less overhang over the northern portions of Eastern Washington and North Idaho so the pops for showers and thunderstorms look to remain north of I-90 both days and shifted slightly more to the north on Tuesday.
128 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure will dominate the weather in the Ohio Valley for the next several days.
Drier air has filtered into the region aloft on the backside of a disturbance crossing the lower MS Valley. Cloud cover has been diminishing through the afternoon, although scattered shallow CU have developed in the lower levels. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures have warmed into the lower to middle 80s, which is a much nicer contrast to the muggy upper 80s to lower 90s a few days ago.
The cumulus towers are most vigorous along the Highway 20 corridor and into the Niobrara valley where a few isolated showers have already brief appearances on KLNX radar. The upper ridge amplifies a bit for tomorrow and expect enough subsidence to inhibit convective potential to go with a dry forecast, though an isolated shower/thunder is not out of the question. Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement showing a gradual eastward shift to upper ridge over the western US through Memorial Day weekend with a slight clockwise tilt to the axis.
300 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023 An upper level ridge over the Northern Rockies continues to bring weak northwest flow into the Northern Plains. The upper level ridge is going to settle over the Northern Plains tomorrow leading to temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s. The low level thermal ridge will span across south central North Dakota where the warmest temperatures are expected. A warm front will lift through the region tomorrow causing thunderstorms out west. A back door cold front will move in tomorrow evening bringing breezy winds and maybe initiating convection in the evening.
This is expected to be the last day of this for awhile as the trough over the Pac NW ushers in drier air from the west and pushes all the unstable air to the east.
With dry air over the region and calm winds, temps will drop into the lower 50s, but not quite as chilly as last night. Overnight lows in the lower 50s expected, with continued concern for areas more prone to radiational cooling to see lows in the upper 40s. Building ridging on Tuesday will allow temperatures to rise rapidly tomorrow, with highs in the 80s across much of the area.
There is a light northerly steering flow primarily due to the broad circulation of the low off to the east. Dew points will linger in the lower to mid 70s.
658 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023 Currently a weak 500 mb trough will continue to move over central and eastern Kansas the rest of the afternoon and evening. This stagnant mid level trough and weak flow aloft will continue to bring showers and isolated storms overnight and into the day Tuesday, mainly along and west of a line from Russell to Arkansas City.
926 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023 Wx map shows weak high pressure across the region, with light and variable winds. Clearing skies, along with the lingering dry air with dewpoints in the 60s, expected to yield lows in the lower to mid 60s by daybreak Tuesday. 08/DML Drier air has filtered into the region aloft on the backside of a disturbance crossing the lower MS Valley. Cloud cover has been diminishing through the afternoon, although scattered shallow CU have developed in the lower levels. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures have warmed into the lower to middle 80s, which is a much nicer contrast to the muggy upper 80s to lower 90s a few days ago.
An upper level ridge over the Northern Rockies continues to bring weak northwest flow into the Northern Plains. The upper level ridge is going to settle over the Northern Plains tomorrow leading to temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s. The low level thermal ridge will span across south central North Dakota where the warmest temperatures are expected. A warm front will lift through the region tomorrow causing thunderstorms out west. A back door cold front will move in tomorrow evening bringing breezy winds and maybe initiating convection in the evening.
501 PM MDT Mon May 22 2023 Western NOAM ridge will slowly push east this week as active SW flow ensues. Upper trough will remain anchored in the western CONUS supporting several weak impulses into the region. Upper ridge will continue to shift east with semi-unsettled SW flow setting up Tues, biasing east some each day.
704 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023 Drier air has filtered into the region aloft on the backside of a disturbance crossing the lower MS Valley. Cloud cover has been diminishing through the afternoon, although scattered shallow CU have developed in the lower levels. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures have warmed into the lower to middle 80s, which is a much nicer contrast to the muggy upper 80s to lower 90s a few days ago.
708 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure to the east and southeast will maintain general control of weather conditions as dry air continues to funnel into the region. The most recent RAP solution for vertically integrated smoke suggests the high altitude smoke overhead will remain quite thick through the night, thinning toward daybreak. Model soundings show mixing depths up to 6-7k feet which will support afternoon highs into the low 80s.
Daily chance of showers and thunderstorms linger through the holiday weekend as persistent troughing develops. A Pacific trough, stretching from British Columbia to the Pacific Northwest states per latest mesoanalysis, has replaced the previously moist airmass aloft with a much drier one across the region. The aforementioned Pacific trough will evolve into a cut-off low in the coming days, handing off a new deepening trough that aligns with the western CONUS.
The weather on Tuesday will be mostly sunny with afternoon temperatures near average, ranging from the upper 60s in north Idaho to the low 70s in central Washington. The weather will become warmer by the end of the work week into the weekend. Tonight and Tuesday: A cool upper level trough will pivot along the Washington/British Columbia border during the remainder of the afternoon and up into Alberta on Tuesday. Rain and cooler temperatures should be good news for slowing the wildfire activity that has been responsible for the wide ranging air quality problems in Canada and portions of the U. Tuesday's high temperatures will range from the upper 60s in north Idaho and northeast Washington to the low 70s in central Washington and the Columbia Basin.
Farther aloft, increasing westerlies were analyzed over the Florida Peninsula and most of the Gulf basin along the northern periphery of a deep layer mean anticyclone. However, a large-scale trough and belt of deep cyclonic flow will develop mid-week, leading to modest geopotential height falls (mainly north of the service area), steepening lapse rates, and increased potential buoyancy.
General high pressure at the surface stretching from the Canadian Maritimes to the Ozarks, with a slight weakness in the ridge from Pennsylvania to Kentucky, will keep winds light tonight under partly cloudy skies. Low temperatures will be just a couple degrees cooler than normal, in the 50s.
Upper ridging still shows some weakness over the Tennessee Valley, and if that trend expands northward we will have some instability but questionable moisture supply for convection. General high pressure at the surface stretching from the Canadian Maritimes to the Ozarks, with a slight weakness in the ridge from Pennsylvania to Kentucky, will keep winds light tonight under partly cloudy skies. Low temperatures will be just a couple degrees cooler than normal, in the 50s.
High pressure remains in control over the Central to Eastern U. Tuesday will be a touch warmer as highs reach the low to mid 80s with continued low humidity.
(Tuesday through Monday) Shower/storm chances will creep into the area on Tuesday as the weak upper low traverses the region.
712 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure building into the area will be the dominate weather feature through mid-week bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
SE AZ will spend most of the week between a trough upstream near the west coast, and a ridge building from central Mexico through the front range of the Rockies and the central plains.
611 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Upper air analysis this morning showed a low amplitude ridge moving over northeastern Mexico and west Texas with west-northwesterly flow over Texas. Temperatures this afternoon are five to ten degrees warmer than 24 hours ago under mainly clear skies. Boundary layer flow will be from the southeast bringing warmer air to South Central Texas. Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be three to five degrees warmer than today. The mid-level ridge will amplify tonight and tomorrow turning the flow to northwesterly. We don't expect any significant change in the low levels with the warm moist airmass staying in place. This will lead to warm day with highs about five degrees warmer than today.
733 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023 (The rest of this afternoon and Tonight) Broad surface ridging remains planted over much of the region this afternoon, giving way to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and generally quiet weather for the rest of the day. The ridge should slowly drift a little eastward tonight as a weak upper level low slides along the OK/KS border during the overnight period. Lows tonight will likely be a couple degrees warmer than last night, but still below normal, with most locations dipping into the mid 50s. Bowlan (Tuesday through Monday) Shower/storm chances will creep into the area on Tuesday as the weak upper low traverses the region.
Low pressure tracking southward along the coast Monday and Tuesday will bring a cooling trend and the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms over the interior mountains. A weak trough is dropping down the west coast. Winds may decouple briefly in the lower elevations, but the higher elevations will likely continue to see breezy conditions. Tuesday an upper level trough drops down over the west coast. This cooler air aloft will bring the potential for some showers or thunderstorms over the interior mountains.
441 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023 Currently a weak 500 mb trough will continue to move over central and eastern Kansas the rest of the afternoon and evening. This stagnant mid level trough and weak flow aloft will continue to bring showers and isolated storms overnight and into the day Tuesday, mainly along and west of a line from Russell to Arkansas City.
738 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure will dominate the weather in the Ohio Valley for the next several days, offering seasonably warm temperatures and abundant sunshine.
Meanwhile some of the low clouds that were around this morning have burned off, with not much more than fair weather cumulus clouds in portions of Douglas and Coos County. Afternoon temperatures Tuesday for inland locations will be a few degrees warmer than today, and at seasonal norms. An upper trough will drop into the area Tuesday, the trough axis will be along the Cascades Tuesday afternoon, and the combination of weak instability and trigger could result in a couple of isolated thunderstorms where mid level moisture is greatest in southeast Modoc and Lake County late this afternoon into early this evening.