Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
155 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 High pressure across the region will remain in control through the weekend. An upper level trough will shift off the New England coast while an upper level ridge strengthens over the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys to our west. Temperatures should be slightly above normal with highs on Saturday in the lower to mid 80s and lows Saturday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A reinforcing high pressure will build down Saturday night and high temperatures on Sunday may be slightly cooler in the lower 80s with lows Sunday night in the mid to upper 50s. Persistent upper flow pattern featuring a ridge over the eastern half of the country with upper troughing over the intermountain west and off the east coast.
On Saturday a trough will deepen across the western Great Basin. By Saturday evening, we will start to see chances increase as the trough and now closed low approach. Otherwise, Sunday will be cooler, with humidity elevated to over 25 percent.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridge axis stretching from the western Gulf of Mexico into the southern Great Lakes is progged to continue amplifying today in advance of deepening upper troughing over the western CONUS. Despite the midlevel moisture in place, the majority of the region is expected to remain dry today through tonight as subsidence associated with the aforementioned upper ridge expands slightly westward in addition to a lack of any coherent low level forcing mechanisms locally.
Moisture plume looks to remain west of the area tonight along with much of the upper support, which should keep any convection confined to the higher terrain to our west overnight.
Temperatures ranged in the low to mid 60s with dew points also in the 60s, allowing for fog to develop. After fog dissipates, high pressure over the region will lead to a mostly clear day with temperatures in the low to mid 80s, which is on the order of 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late September. Warm and dry weather is expected Sunday through at least midweek with an amplified upper ridge extending from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Daytime temps will run well above climo with most areas solidly in the lower/mid 80s.
121 AM PDT Sat Sep 30 2023 A cold low pressure system will hang out over the region this weekend and bring showers and isolated thunderstorms, brisk northwest winds at times and temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below average. Light snowfall may even blanket the highest peaks along the Sierra.
Ridging and high pressure will continue to become more dominant as significant subsidence inversions can be found in model derived soundings.
(Today) Well above average temperatures and dry conditions will continue this weekend as ridging dominates the central CONUS. Leaned towards persistence for the forecast today, with max temps a couple degrees warmer than NBM.
Discussion: Upper level trough is currently exiting our area. Trough is to our east tomorrow and high pressure is firmly in place, leading to clear skies and above normal temps, around 5 degrees above normal.
A ridge at the surface and aloft will result in mostly clear skies through Sunday. Given the ridge overhead, we'll see a gradual warming trend this weekend with highs in the upper 70s today and lower 80s Sunday.
(Today) High pressure aloft will remain centered over the Tennessee Valley today, keeping dry but warm conditions in place.
1237 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Key Forecast Message: * Chance for patchy fog outside of Chicago tonight-early Saturday and again Saturday night-early Sunday, but otherwise quiet A quiet, amplified, blocky pattern with strong mid-level ridging across the central CONUS and Midwest will prevail.
109 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 High pressure will gradually build across the region through the weekend.
Further south, it is very apparent when looking at surface obs where the warm front lies and where clouds have been thinnest today. Temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 80s along I-90 and are still in the low 70s around the metro and mid 60s further north and east into Wisconsin. Sunday will likely be a few degrees warmer with portions of southern and western Minnesota making a run at 90 with strong southerly flow.
1216 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (This evening through Saturday) An upper level ridge across Texas will continue through Saturday while a strong upper level trough digs into the SW CONUS. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure to the east and low pressure across Colorado and New Mexico will continue to bring southerly winds to the region, with gustiest winds (around 20 mph) this afternoon and Saturday afternoon when the surface pressure gradient tightens. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s, which is about 5-10 degrees warmer than normal, while some weakening of the 850 mb thermal ridge will lead to slightly cooler highs on Saturday (upper 80s to low 90s).
250 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 With the expansion of the central CONUS ridge over southern lower MI late last evening, warming low/mid levels allowed for effective clearing of persistent stratus overnight. Aforementioned ridging governs local conditions through first half of next work week maintaining dry, warmer weather. Upper ridge amplifies this weekend in response in to a potent upper trough digging into the Desert Southwest resulting in strengthening WAA into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes.
(Today through Sunday) Lower to mid level ridging drifts off to the east today allowing for a surge of deeper moisture with well above seasonal normal moisture levels (PWs) through Sunday. Models, even the Hi-res, are inconsistent and lack consensus on locations of this activity as there is a lack of forcing mechanisms, except for heating and possibly the low level jet and seabreeze. The highest POPs will be over southern and western parts of our area. Cannot rule out gusty winds due to instability or heavy downpours due to the high PWs.
/Issued 1218 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023/ /This Weekend/ It will be another hot weekend as ridging continues to prevail for the next day or two. The ridge will slide east this evening, opening the door for drier air to filter into the region from the east tonight/tomorrow. The drier air will allow for Sunday morning's temperature to be a few degrees cooler than today. Normally, drier air would result in warmer afternoon temperatures, but the eastward translation of the ridge will open the door for cirrus to move into the region Sunday and offset the impact of the drier air. This will bring beneficial rainfall to much of the region throughout the week, along with the arrival of our first significant fall cold front.
600 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Today) High pressure aloft will remain centered over the Tennessee Valley today, keeping dry but warm conditions in place.
(Today through Sunday Night) Ridging aloft with the approach/passage of an easterly wave at the lower levels will help to maintain the hot/humid weather over much of the region. with highs here ranging from the lower to mid 90s. Overnight temper- atures will remain on the warm/humid side; in the lower to mid 70s for most areas. The approach/passage of the inverted upper trough/easterly wave in- to the Middle TX coast will maintain scattered rain chances across the Gulf with Matagorda Bay on the northern periphery of the surge of deeper moisture.
627 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Today) Well above average temperatures and dry conditions will continue this weekend as ridging dominates the central CONUS. Leaned towards persistence for the forecast today, with max temps a couple degrees warmer than NBM.
Temperatures are in the upper 20s to lower 40s over the high mountain valleys, with mid 40s to mid 50s over the rest of the forecast area. There is not much moisture in the lower levels, so the higher based convection will create strong outflow wind gusts. The highest pops will be over the mountains, up to 30%s. Above seasonal normal temperatures are expected today with the thickness grids showing highs to be 1-3 c warmer than yesterady's readings. Upper level low will slowly move east across Nevada Sunday.
07z surface analysis had weak high over the upper Midwest with a lee trough from central WY into northeast CO. Pressure falls ahead of trough in response to low level warm advection resulting in increasing return flow over the CWA. Widening the view per water vapour loop depicts upper trough from BC to CA with southwest flow over the northern Plains. Disposition of upper trough the main forecast concern.
1051 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 High pressure will gradually build across the region through the weekend.
(Today through Sunday) Synoptic scale omega block over the entire CONUS at the moment but this will get forced east as some strong jet level winds fall to the back side of the west coast trough. The east coast trough will remain just like it has practically the whole summer with the caveat of a continuous retrogression type scenario.
401 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 The warming trend continues today as a slight ridge builds in, bringing warmer 850mb temps and mostly sunny skies. Meanwhile, a big trough and low moves through the Western United States, aimed at us in a few days. Temperatures overnight will be warm for this time of year with a push of the thermal ridge north into North Dakota. Southwest flow continues as the aforementioned big trough continues to move east. Sunday night the thermal ridge stays and temperatures will struggle to cool down in the southeast.
542 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Today and tonight) Surface ridging will continue building into the southern US from southern Canada with a drier airmass. However, weak upper troughing along the Gulf coast and some deep moisture just offshore will continue to provide a chance of showers for the southeast big bend. The highest chance is expected to be along the Dixie county coast and offshore.
We will begin to transition to a cooler pattern on Sunday. Low pressure will begin to approach western Wyoming Sunday and spread more showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Fire weather concerns should ease though as more clouds will bring cooler temperatures and higher humidity. Most showers should end during the evening as the low lifts northward into Montana. As for snow levels, they could fall to as low as 8500 to 9000 feet but most precipitation will be ending as the cooler air moves in so accumulations should remain light.
625 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge axis stretching from the western Gulf of Mexico into the southern Great Lakes is progged to continue amplifying today in advance of deepening upper troughing over the western CONUS. Despite the midlevel moisture in place, the majority of the region is expected to remain dry today through tonight as subsidence associated with the aforementioned upper ridge expands slightly westward in addition to a lack of any coherent low level forcing mechanisms locally.
Highs today will range from the lower to middle 70s to north to the lower 80s south.
High pressure centered overhead will then maintain light winds and clear skies through the afternoon. With the expansion of the central CONUS ridge over southern lower MI late last evening, warming low/mid levels allowed for effective clearing of persistent stratus overnight. Aforementioned ridging governs local conditions through first half of next work week maintaining dry, warmer weather. Upper ridge amplifies this weekend in response in to a potent upper trough digging into the Desert Southwest resulting in strengthening WAA into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes.
Surface and upper air analysis show high pressure influencing the area this morning, which will promote clear skies and continued dry conditions today. The only concern today will be elevated fire danger as dewpoints this morning are in the low 60s, forecast to mix down to the mid to upper 50s this afternoon. /SAS/ Today through tonight: Overall, the forecast remains warm and dry for the near term given continued ridging over the forecast area. Temperatures this afternoon will be on the hot side (~5 to 10 F above climatological normal) in the low to mid 90s, but low humidity will keep heat indices from being highly stressful. The low RH and high temperatures combined with continued dry weather will enhance the fire weather danger and we will keep the HWO graphic going.
Upper trough continues to deepen over NorCal early this morning.
528 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023 07z surface analysis had weak high over the upper Midwest with a lee trough from central WY into northeast CO. Pressure falls ahead of trough in response to low level warm advection resulting in increasing return flow over the CWA. Widening the view per water vapour loop depicts upper trough from BC to CA with southwest flow over the northern Plains. Disposition of upper trough the main forecast concern.
A closed low pressure system will continue to dig southward into Nevada today. A light dusting of snow is expected in the higher terrain, especially near Glacier National Park where snow levels are the lowest. The main low pressure circulation will eject northeastward into southern Idaho during the day on Sunday. Snow levels will be up close to 8000 feet where the heavier precipitation occurs, so only the highest peaks of southwest Montana will see snowfall.
622 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Today through Sunday) Lower to mid level ridging drifts off to the east today allowing for a surge of deeper moisture with well above seasonal normal moisture levels (PWs) through Sunday. Models, even the Hi-res, are inconsistent and lack consensus on locations of this activity as there is a lack of forcing mechanisms, except for heating and possibly the low level jet and seabreeze. The highest POPs will be over southern and western parts of our area. Cannot rule out gusty winds due to instability or heavy downpours due to the high PWs.
617 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Today through tonight: Overall, the forecast remains warm and dry for the near term given continued ridging over the forecast area. Temperatures this afternoon will be on the hot side (~5 to 10 F above climatological normal) in the low to mid 90s, but low humidity will keep heat indices from being highly stressful. The low RH and high temperatures combined with continued dry weather will enhance the fire weather danger and we will keep the HWO graphic going.
526 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023 An upper trough will be moving across the western U. The trough will transport moisture north with periods of showers expected. As the low moves east, and the upper trof buckles with the formation of a partially closed low, clearing is expected in southeast Montana this afternoon. Given the position of the inverted trof/cold front, the best chance for rain will be across the north until the overnight hours.
628 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level flow will become more southwest today, the upper ridging shifts east.
A strong low pressure system is moving into the region. Increasing south winds are also expected, strongest south and southeast of the Snake Plain as well as near ridgetops along the MT border where gusts may reach 40 MPH. Sunday, the brunt of the storm arrives with widespread areas of rain and showers, some afternoon thunderstorms, and much cooler temperatures only topping out in the 50s to near 60. Galena Summit has a 26% chance of seeing 1 inch or more of snow, but very marginal temperatures will make it hard for any snow to stick to the highway for long.
The warming trend continues today as a slight ridge builds in, bringing warmer 850mb temps and mostly sunny skies. Meanwhile, a big trough and low moves through the Western United States, aimed at us in a few days. Temperatures overnight will be warm for this time of year with a push of the thermal ridge north into North Dakota. Southwest flow continues as the aforementioned big trough continues to move east. Sunday night the thermal ridge stays and temperatures will struggle to cool down in the southeast.
Key Messages -There are patches of dense fog around the area this morning, so far mainly from Baudette to Bemidji -High temperatures were warmer than anticipated yesterday within the central and northern Red River Valley, expect the same today and Sunday It is a pretty weak surface pattern across the FA early this morning, with light winds everywhere.
611 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Today through Sunday) High pressure overhead will remain through the weekend.
Highs will be around 4 to 7 degrees above normal with sunny skies and ridging in place. Ridging and high pressure will continue to become more dominant as significant subsidence inversions can be found in model derived soundings.
657 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 High pressure will gradually build across the region through the weekend.
Increased cloud cover on Sunday and a shift of the hotter airmass into the eastern Plains will contribute to temperature as much as 5 degrees cooler than Saturday. There might be a significant decrease in the gustiness as well as the core of the low level jet at 850 mb lifts into Nebraska weakening along the way. This is largely influenced by the eastward progressing synoptic trough over the great Basin on Saturday which spreads into the northern Rockies by Sunday.
With moisture and instability favored near the coast, the highest rain chances will generally remain over the coastal plains, with chances tapering slightly as you move inland toward the Hill Country and Rio Grande plains. Some isolated showers may develop closer to the Rio Grande toward daybreak given slightly higher moisture content and the low-level jet.
1203 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level flow will become more southwest today, the upper ridging shifts east.
141 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 High pressure will gradually build across the region through the weekend.
(Now through Sunday) An upper level ridge to our west will continue to build slightly eastward into our region through Sunday. While down at the surface, a ridge of high pressure extending across much of the eastern CONUS continues to build down into our area. Additionally, skies should remain mostly clear as the broad mid level troughing slides east and the better deep layer moisture gets pushed further into the Gulf. Clear skies at night will allow for radiational cooling with low temperatures expected to drop into the lower to middle 60s inland and the upper 60s to around 70 degrees at the immediate coast.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a ridge is centered over the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
You can't completely rule out some storms developing north of the warm front as it slowly pushes north, but that is looking increasingly unlikely.
1254 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Today through Sunday) Lower to mid level ridging drifts off to the east today allowing for a surge of deeper moisture with well above seasonal normal moisture levels (PWs) through Sunday. Models, even the Hi-res, are inconsistent and lack consensus on locations of this activity as there is a lack of forcing mechanisms, except for heating and possibly the low level jet and seabreeze. The highest POPs will be over southern and western parts of our area. Cannot rule out gusty winds due to instability or heavy downpours due to the high PWs.
Currently, a cutoff low pressure system over California and the Southwest U.
Sunny skies are expected the rest of the day with ridging in place keeping any cumulus development at bay. A ridge at the surface and aloft will result in mostly clear skies through Sunday. Given the ridge overhead, we'll see a gradual warming trend this weekend with highs in the upper 70s today and lower 80s Sunday.
Moisture will continue to stream into the region as an upper level low cycles over the Great Basin, maintaining widespread rain showers throughout the weekend.
With the expansion of the central CONUS ridge over southern lower MI late last evening, warming low/mid levels allowed for effective clearing of persistent stratus overnight. Aforementioned ridging governs local conditions through first half of next work week maintaining dry, warmer weather. Upper ridge amplifies this weekend in response in to a potent upper trough digging into the Desert Southwest resulting in strengthening WAA into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes.
202 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Satellite imagery shows an elongated trof from WA to CA with strong moist southerly flow on its eastern side extending from Nevada into the northern Rockies. The main dynamic forcing from the western trough will remain west of our CWA overnight, so aside from a few light mountain showers and isolated sprinkles over the plains, we expect to remain dry overnight. Better chance of showers begins Sunday as upper low over the southern great basin begins to lift northward, bringing large scale ascent into our west and mountains. so expect some wet snow over the high elevations. Most of the initial energy ejecting out of the upper western trough tracks north of our area resulting in decreasing showers after midnight.
This will continue to reinforce the ongoing amplification of the upper-level ridging in place across Midwest/Great Lakes region.
(This evening through Sunday) Upper ridging begins to shift eastward today into tomorrow as a large upper trough deepens over the western US. For now, we remain well removed from the trough and expect mainly dry conditions with above normal temperatures to continue tonight into tomorrow, along with breezy south winds. Convection is expected to remain confined to the higher terrain today and tomorrow with stronger upper flow still to our west.
1250 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Rest of today through Sunday) South FL will remain unsettled this weekend as a frontal boundary lingers across the state and a weak upper level trough hangs out over the northern Gulf.
These hot temperatures will be near record values for some! If outside this afternoon and evening, be sure to have plenty of water and sunscreen handy! Tonight, we will see a cooler night, with a comfortable southerly breeze. High pressure in the east will continue to keep us in LLVL southerly flow, resulting in anomalously warm temperatures once again.
1253 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Today through Sunday Night) Ridging aloft with the approach/passage of an easterly wave at the lower levels will help to maintain the hot/humid weather over much of the region. with highs here ranging from the lower to mid 90s. Overnight temper- atures will remain on the warm/humid side; in the lower to mid 70s for most areas. The approach/passage of the inverted upper trough/easterly wave in- to the Middle TX coast will maintain scattered rain chances across the Gulf with Matagorda Bay on the northern periphery of the surge of deeper moisture.
242 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 The upper level pattern will continue to amplify through the weekend as troughing centered over California and the Central Great Basin digs as it works its way east.
(Rest of today through Sunday) South FL will remain unsettled this weekend as a frontal boundary lingers across the state and a weak upper level trough hangs out over the northern Gulf.
A strong cold front will likely bring some rain showers for the end of the week followed by noticeably cooler and breezy conditions over the weekend. A mix of sun and clouds expected for the afternoon especially central and eastern areas as residual llvl moisture in the form of stratocu streets move NE->SW around low pressure circulating southeast of southern New England. High pressure continues to build south over the state tonight and Sunday with clearing skies expected overnight.
1238 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Today through Sunday) Synoptic scale omega block over the entire CONUS at the moment but this will get forced east as some strong jet level winds fall to the back side of the west coast trough. The east coast trough will remain just like it has practically the whole summer with the caveat of a continuous retrogression type scenario.
Patchy fog cannot be ruled out tonight for well inland areas, but any lingering clouds could delay radiational cooling and prevent the lower boundary layer from fully decoupling and saturating. Warm dry weather continues under the 300mb ridge on Sunday, with daytime highs in the Mid-80s for the majority of our CWA.