Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This will result in sunny skies across the area today, except for the potential for some shallow stratocu across far northern IL where mid-level temps remain a little cooler. Temps should not be quite as cold overnight, though still in the low- mid 30s in many spots which will likely support areas of frost again despite slightly more wind and weak warm advection developing aloft.
1223 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 (The rest of today ) Band of rain and embedded storms ahead of an advancing upper low will move into eastern Oklahoma over the next couple hours and into western Arkansas by around mid-afternoon.
113 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley today, providing dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
The weather in the short-term will be driven by local and mesoscale processes along the island chain, with near-normal Pops of 10% tonight and Thursday due to substantial drier air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere and minimal lift in the low levels of the atmosphere to bring about ascent.
Indications are that we may be 2-4 degrees warmer tonight with some modification of the cold air mass, and some high clouds moving in late. Southerly winds and continued modification of the air mass will support high temps a bit warmer for Thursday.
Current forecast is on track calling for gusty west/ northwest winds in southern Idaho Thursday as a Canadian short wave trough moves through MT and WY. Winds will decrease Thursday night as the trough exits.
Upstream, GOES water imagery shows a closed upper low over the TX panhandle.
Weak ridging moves across the state tonight and Thursday in the northwest flow aloft. Temperatures rebound nicely for Thursday due to the ridging and increased sunshine. West to northwest winds increase Thursday afternoon ahead of an upper level trough and cold front approaching Colorado from the north. May see a few weak showers during the afternoon in advance of the cold front. The bulk of precipitation will occur behind the cold front which races south across the area Thursday evening.
Model guidance highlight an upper low slowly pushing east across eastern Texas as a warm front continues to push northward along the Gulf Coast.
Temperatures trend cooler over the weekend. An upper-level low pressure system over the Canadian Prairies this afternoon will drive a warm front eastward out of the Dakotas and into Minnesota and Wisconsin tonight. By Thursday afternoon the initial upper low will open over far northern Ontario. The second round of rain will be driven by an upper-level trough sliding southeastward around the western periphery of the remnant trough over Ontario.
(The rest of tonight) Closed upper low currently centered over the eastern Texas Panhandle will slowly track east overnight across western and central Oklahoma. As the upper low tracks closer to eastern Oklahoma overnight, cooler air aloft will act to modestly increase elevated instability and more thunderstorm activity is possible toward sunrise tomorrow morning. Bowlan (Tonight through Wednesday) The aforementioned upper low will continue moving east with precip chances ending by late afternoon across NW AR.
High pressure is centered over Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan early this afternoon with a stalled frontal boundary along the Kansas/Oklahoma border to along the Tennessee/Kentucky border. This will allow for one more cold night across the area with high pressure overhead. High pressure to the east and southerly winds of 5 to 10 MPH will draw warmer air and moisture into the area on Thursday.
Behind the surface cold front, a well-mixed boundary layer with clearing skies is allowing afternoon temperatures to climb into the mid 50s to mid 60s, with gusty northwest winds. The extensive cloud cover and widespread showers will likely keep temperatures a bit cooler on Thursday, especially across northern parts of the state where highs may stay in the 40s.
722 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level low pressure moving eastward across the northern Texas panhandle region this afternoon. 10" to around 1" inch) will be possible for tonight-Thursday afternoon with the highest amounts affecting far southern Kansas counties.
811 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Below average temperatures will create freezing conditions for portions of our region tonight into early Thursday. Temperatures will be 10 degrees warmer tomorrow afternoon under ridging.
807 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes tonight, providing dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
656 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 (This evening through Thursday) A strong, dynamic, positively tilted upper low currently moving SE through northern NM will become neutrally tilted and track east through the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma later this afternoon into the evening hours. As showers and storm activity winds down later this evening, another push of cooler air behind the exiting low to the east will result in cooler than normal overnight lows in the 30s and 40s with steady north winds around 10-20 MPH. As the upper low releases its grip on our area, we'll sees skies clear quickly west to east after sunrise tomorrow morning, with temperatures rebounding nicely back up into the 70s area wide.
822 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 High pressure centered over the Lower Great Lakes will support fair dry weather through Thursday night.
822 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 (This evening through Thursday) The closed upper low heads slowly eastward across the Texas panhandle this evening and over Oklahoma tonight into tomorrow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening and overnight as the closed upper low moves slowly into western Oklahoma. However, dynamic cooling near the core of the upper low may allow for isolated strong to marginally severe storms to develop this evening and into the overnight hours over western Oklahoma.
647 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 The upper level trough over Quebec will continue to weaken while an upper level ridge builds over the western CONUS. Also, the latest forecast soundings continue to show considerable dry air in the low and mid levels with low level moisture return rather slow with better chances of precipitation after 12z Thursday, especially along and south of I-70. Then as the low moves into the Ohio Valley Thursday night, the chance for rain will wind down. Highs on Thursday will depend on cloud cover and precipitation, but do expect warmer temperatures across portions of northeast Missouri and west central Illinois while areas to the south will be cooler due to clouds and rain.
High pressure continues to build over the west coast.
653 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes tonight, providing dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Given the dry dew points in the upper 20s across the area, slightly cooler lows, which will be favorable for frost formation appears reasonable. The next system to impact the area will be a low pressure system moving in from the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex regions. Highs tomorrow will be a little bit warmer, reaching up to the mid 60s. Synoptically speaking, broad upper level troughing over the central and eastern CONUS will steadily consolidate and intensify into an anomalously deep closed upper level low centered over the Great Lakes and slowly pushing into the northeastern states through the period. Another closed low will slowly move onshore on the West Coast, with initially high-amplitude but steadily weakening upper level ridging over the Intermountain West into the Rockies during the period.
638 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 (The rest of this afternoon ) Main area of rain associated with an upper low currently over the TX panhandle will continue pushing through the forecast area this afternoon. Mid level dry slot will limit precip chances this evening, but additional activity is expected to develop overnight as the upper low moves east through western and central OK overnight. Given the track of the upper low, will keep highest pops across NE OK and NW AR overnight. (Tonight through Wednesday) The aforementioned upper low will continue moving east with precip chances ending by late afternoon across NW AR.
1057 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes tonight, providing dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
351 PM MDT Wed Apr 26 2023 A warmer and drier day is ongoing across the forecast area as a ridge nudges into Wyoming. This evening, mid level flow will tighten up and become northwesterly ahead of a quick- hitting Canadian trough. The main event arrives after sunrise Thursday as a cold front begins pushing south from Montana. As for precipitation type, snow will be limited to the mountains during the daylight hours for the most part, but with the loss of diurnal heating and cold front, snow levels will drop to the basins in the evening.
1211 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 (The rest of tonight) Closed upper low currently centered over the eastern Texas Panhandle will slowly track east overnight across western and central Oklahoma. As the upper low tracks closer to eastern Oklahoma overnight, cooler air aloft will act to modestly increase elevated instability and more thunderstorm activity is possible toward sunrise tomorrow morning. Bowlan (Tonight through Wednesday) The aforementioned upper low will continue moving east with precip chances ending by late afternoon across NW AR.
1211 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level low pressure moving eastward across the northern Texas panhandle region this afternoon. 10" to around 1" inch) will be possible for tonight-Thursday afternoon with the highest amounts affecting far southern Kansas counties.
228 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 This Thursday morning an area of high pressure over our region will drift eastward tonight.
Another quiet start of the day is expected across the forecast area with partly cloudy conditions and low temperatures in the lower 60s to 70 degrees. Synoptically, a brief upper level ridge is expected to build over the Peninsula in advance of an area of low pressure that continues to develop over the Mississippi Valley area.
1053 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 The upper level trough over Quebec will continue to weaken while an upper level ridge builds over the western CONUS. Also, the latest forecast soundings continue to show considerable dry air in the low and mid levels with low level moisture return rather slow with better chances of precipitation after 12z Thursday, especially along and south of I-70. Then as the low moves into the Ohio Valley Thursday night, the chance for rain will wind down. Highs on Thursday will depend on cloud cover and precipitation, but do expect warmer temperatures across portions of northeast Missouri and west central Illinois while areas to the south will be cooler due to clouds and rain.
Upper ridging transitioning across the region today will result in dry conditions. Upper level cloud coverage will increase this afternoon as the ridge axis shifts to the east, and temperatures will eventually recover near normal values after the cold start this morning. Rain chances will increase over the course of the night as a low pressure system moves northeast up the Ohio River Valley.
Upper ridging transitioning across the region today will result in dry conditions. Upper level cloud coverage will increase this afternoon as the ridge axis shifts to the east, and temperatures will eventually recover to near normal values after the cold start this morning. Rain chances will increase over the course of the night as a low pressure system moves northeast up the Ohio River Valley.
/Today through Wednesday/ FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS: --Warmer today, still dry, but a bit breezy, especially northwest.
Over land, temperatures are in the upper 70s, with dewpoint in the lower 70s. Surface analysis reveals a trough over the Gulf of Mexico, west of Tampa Florida, and another trough in eastern Texas.
Following this system a deepening trough will dig into the Southern Plains with low pressure tracking across the Mid to Deep South early this weekend. Meanwhile, an upper low moves towards Michigan where it is expected to stall.
The region will also be a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
338 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Dense fog as developed across Hamilton county early this morning as skies clear on the higher terrain and given the recent rain.
306 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 A mid/upper trough was drifting slowly eastward across the Southern Plains early this morning with widely scattered showers lingering across much of the area. Precipitation will gradually diminish from west to east as we move through the day as the previously mentioned trough moves into the Ozarks.
(Today and tonight) Low level moisture wrapping around a mid/upper low located over western Oklahoma early this morning is expected to shift to the east of the forecast area mid- to late morning as the upper low opens up and begins racing eastward. Surface pressure ridge from across southeastern New Mexico will move quickly extending from Far West Texas to the Central Plains will shift quickly eastward across the southern High Plains as well to be quickly replaced by cyclogenesis from northeastern New Mexico to eastern Colorado as the next upper level trough digs southward from Alberta toward Wyoming. The next cold front will race quickly southward down the High Plains in tandem with upper trough, the latter feature progged to move quickly southward down the Front Range and the cold front out ahead of it.
305 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Dry and warmer conditions are expected today.
1052 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 (This evening through Thursday) The closed upper low heads slowly eastward across the Texas panhandle this evening and over Oklahoma tonight into tomorrow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening and overnight as the closed upper low moves slowly into western Oklahoma. However, dynamic cooling near the core of the upper low may allow for isolated strong to marginally severe storms to develop this evening and into the overnight hours over western Oklahoma.
1219 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 (This evening through Thursday) A strong, dynamic, positively tilted upper low currently moving SE through northern NM will become neutrally tilted and track east through the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma later this afternoon into the evening hours. As showers and storm activity winds down later this evening, another push of cooler air behind the exiting low to the east will result in cooler than normal overnight lows in the 30s and 40s with steady north winds around 10-20 MPH. As the upper low releases its grip on our area, we'll sees skies clear quickly west to east after sunrise tomorrow morning, with temperatures rebounding nicely back up into the 70s area wide.
Current WV imagery and 500 mb analysis depicts southern flow upper level trough over OK/TX with the northern plains under quasi-zonal flow. Not expecting much in terms of accumulation, 1-2 inches for the most part with some higher accumulations of potentially 4-5 inches in the higher elevations. Upper level ridge builds over the region through this weekend, keeping us on the warm and dry side. Ridge will be sluggish to move as an upper low loiters over the Great Lakes region to the east and another upper low stalls out just off the west coast. Some snow is possible for the higher elevations of the Black Hills with IFR/LIFR conditions.
124 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Below average temperatures will create freezing conditions for portions of our region tonight into early Thursday. Temperatures will be 10 degrees warmer tomorrow afternoon under ridging.
We are seeing some residual low clouds across the eastern half of the area associated with the upper low responsible for our recent unsettled pattern. This will help temperatures warm into the 70s to low 80s, even with the continued northerly surface flow behind yesterdays cold front. Extensive upper ridging is already beginning to build over the west coast.
Windy conditions can be expected in some of the higher elevations and foothills tonight. The low level jet will increase from the south and then southeast today into tonight before weakening a bit and shifting southwest. As the low level jet becomes more southeasterly and increases, conditions become more favorable for some mountain wave enhancement of the winds in some of the normally favored higher elevation and foothill locations of the E TN mountains.
435 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Aside from some isolated showers early this morning across parts of Northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskills, dry weather is expected today with high pressure briefly moving into the area.
(Today and tonight) Shower activity is expected to gradually diminish through the morning as the upper low finally departs to our east.
This should generally be the pattern over the next several hours as the prevailing cold front remains well to our north.
This may continue for the next hour or two until all activity pushes south with the outflow/effective cold front. Farther to the north, the upper trough responsible for today's thunderstorms is still positioned northwest of the area with attendant mid-level ascent occurring atop a cool surface airmass.
Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected for Thursday.
359 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Discussion/Marine -- Cold weather this morning but fair weather today -- Clear skies and calm winds this morning have once again allowed temperatures to drop below freezing across southwest Michigan. Temperatures will rise above freezing shortly after sunrise with mild weather as high pressure will dominate the weather pattern today. Warm air ahead of an approaching system will advect into the region as a positively tilted trough through the mid and lower levels brings warm air into the Great Lakes. Expect highs in the low 60s which finally brings temperatures back to normal. That warm air advection coupled with the incoming cloudiness from the approaching low will temporarily end the threat of freezing temperatures.
For Thursday, mid-level ridging will build across the region, with southeasterly winds across the region.
137 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes tonight, providing dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Outflow boundary has become the effective cold front this afternoon and has sagged south of I-20 from Sweetwater to Abilene. Temperatures behind the front will be cooler with lows in the 50s and maybe even upper 40s tonight.
To the south a warm ridge rises out of the Baja along the California coast into southern Oregon. Farther West a large trough is developing just south of the Aleutian Islands. Today: A low pressure system has spun up over southern Alberta beneath the disturbance is rushing along the international border through northern Montana. A cold front has formed up behind the low along with showers on it.
Temperatures will continue to trend warmer through the weekend.
701 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Aside from some isolated showers early this morning across parts of Northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskills, dry weather is expected today with high pressure briefly moving into the area.
At the surface, an associated area of low pressure will lift northeast through the lower MS Valley and towards the OH Valley, bringing chances for showers and storms to the region today. Expect mostly dry weather through the first half of the day before PoPs increase from south to north this afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts through the area.
/NEW/ /Through Tonight/ Our potent upper trough responsible for yesterday's severe thunderstorms remains upstream, presently moving eastward through Oklahoma.
632 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 (Today and tonight) Shower activity is expected to gradually diminish through the morning as the upper low finally departs to our east.
Rain chances mainly north of Interstate 90 through this The CAMS are in general agreement that a cold front will move south into the Interstate 90 corridor by mid morning and then lift northward as a warm front during the late morning and afternoon. As the next low pressure area moves into west-central Minnesota later this afternoon, the 850 mb moisture transport will focus on and north of the warm front. 00z models are in fairly good agreement that the cold front will move slowly through the area from late Friday afternoon into Friday night.
547 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 (Today) Showers and a few thunderstorms will decrease from west to east today as an upper low currently over central Oklahoma moves east across the area.
Dense fog as developed across Hamilton county early this morning as skies clear on the higher terrain and given the recent rain. Given the cold advection with strong north winds and the lack of a closed upper low to the south, think that rain is overdone in the models, especially on the northern extent of the rain shield. Given light winds and clearing skies Friday night, freezing temperatures are expected from Dodge City north and west, and frost/freeze headlines may be needed.
Additionally, the timing of the highest PoPs in the near term forecast has been adjusted to account for a slower progression of the line through our area. MSW (Today through Friday) A weakening upper low currently moving through the Central Plains will continue east across the lower/mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening.
418 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 (Issued 418 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023) Today and Tonight: Just high clouds are expected today as low pressure tracks well to our north. Steady southerly winds will usher warmer, more seasonable, temperatures into southern WI. Expect highs in the lower to mid 60s and even warmer well inland.
Temperatures will inch higher again today as southwesterly low level flow draws in warmer air ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance and associated surface cold front. Northerly winds gusting up to 30-40 mph behind the front will keep Friday's temperatures noticeably cooler across eastern Nebraska, where highs will struggle to reach the upper 50s.
954 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Aside from some isolated showers early this morning across parts of Northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskills, dry weather is expected today with high pressure briefly moving into the area.
A pressure bubble is likely behind the low/front this afternoon and evening, likely bringing pretty gusty winds to the western CWA. Friday will be cooler as colder airmass settles into the region.
Many Valley locations will reach the low to mid 90s the next several days. Strong upper level ridge will continue to build over northern California into the weekend.
Gusty northerly winds on Friday will bring cooler temperatures. a trough will dig down from the north and brush across the Four Corners region. Conditions are expected to remain dry as the trough moves through as there will be very limited moisture available. The main impact from the trough will be from the tightening pressure gradient resulting in gusty north to northeast winds. A cooler air mass will push into the region in the northerly flow and expect Fridays highs to be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than todays highs.
An upper low will traverse the southern portions of Manitoba late this evening, with weak troughing extending southward into the Northern Plains. Slightly cooler air filters in behind this system, with high temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s Friday.
The atmosphere should recover enough today for at least a few showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon as the center of the upper trough moves across Arkansas and it's trailing axis passing over the forecast area. More strong to severe convection is expected to develop west of the area over Southern Oklahoma southward into Central Texas Friday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Aloft, the last in a series of troughs will proceed on the periphery of a longwave trough (over the midwest) into the area, producing showers and thunderstorms in the process.