Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
723 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 (Today through Saturday) A slightly complicated and unsettled pattern with Tropical Depression Two in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid-level area of low pressure sitting near TD Two associated with a longwave trough over the eastern United States. TD Two is forecast to move southward in the Gulf before dissipating but that remnant moisture will likely end up being absorbed into the upper and mid level trough as it departs into the Atlantic by crossing the peninsula.
633 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 A warming trend will lead to temperatures inching into the low 90s this weekend.
645 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Weak high pressure will be over the region through Saturday. A backdoor cold front that will drop south through the area Saturday evening and night.
Moisture will continue to gradually decrease into Saturday under persistent easterly low level flow, with high pressure centered to the northeast. It will be a bit cooler east due to persistent onshore winds.
400 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 A cold front will cross the area this evening.
(This evening through Saturday) The southern periphery of a more pronounced trough will continue to move across the area this evening. These storms will expand in coverage as the aforementioned trough and associated large scale ascent become juxtaposed and move through the area.
(This evening through Saturday) Central Alabama remains in an easterly to northeasterly flow at the surface, with a broad ridge of high pressure stretching from the Ohio River Valley eastward to the mid-Atlantic states. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge is centered over the upper Great Lakes states with an inverted trough axis at 500mb moving southwestward through the deep south. As this disturbance and upper trough move southward, we'll see just enough lift in combination with afternoon heating to trigger scattered showers and storms, mainly across the northern and northwest half of Central Alabama.
There are two upper level lows close to our area, one over southwest Wyoming and one over southwest Idaho. Models show these lows staying in place today due to blocking high pressure east of our area. Tomorrow, Saturday, models show the two lows weakening and combining into one upper level low centered over southeast Idaho.
We may start to see a little less coverage on some days as upper level ridging edges westward and settles in over the forecast area, but still plenty of warm, moist air to yield shower and storm chances.
This time, surface convergence appears to be best stretched from north-central to northeast Wisconsin, so put the highest pops there.
Highs Saturday will be a couple degrees warmer than they were today, mostly in the lower 90's.
Low temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 60s under mostly clear skies and light winds. With very low humidity expected (dew points will mix down into the lower 50s in the afternoon), high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s are forecast, which will be approaching record values at our climate sites.
While temperatures during the early afternoon were already in the mid/upper 80s dew points across southern IN, the Bluegrass and around Louisville were in the low/mid 50s with some locations had dew points in the 40s. With the dry air in place lows will in the low 60s with a few locations dipping into the upper 50s. High pressure will continue its influence over the region as we start the weekend. With lots of sunshine, a dry ground and continued dry air in place (dew points in the low/mid 50s) temperatures will once again warm to near or even into the low 90s for the afternoon.
128 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 (Today through Saturday) Decreasing cloud cover and rain-free conditions today as a ridge axis sits directly over South & East Texas. Although the upper ridge axis shifts southeastward, the mid-level ridge axis lags behind and persists through tonight. A mid-level trough will push its way into the Texas Panhandle on Saturday, causing fluctuations in the mid-level flow near its base and developing areas of positive vorticity advection throughout Texas. 5") and predominantly under a ridge axis, kept with previous forecast and NBM PoPs below 10%.
Temperatures range from 85 to 90, with dewpoints in the lower 70s. The unsettled remnants will fester over Cuba Saturday night, then merge with the unsettled trough axis lingering across the area. Aloft, mean-layer ridging will remain displaced to the south over the Caribbean, with positively tilted long wave troughiness persisting over portions of the Gulf of Mexico.
With subsidence aloft, afternoon highs will be a bit warmer and most places likely reach the low 90s F by mid afternoon.
Lacy (Today) A broad area of negative upper level height anomalies is present across the southern United States, with one upper level low across the Desert Southwest and another over Florida. A weak ridge axis is present near the OK/AR border, with an anomalous upper level ridge centered in southeast Canada. In the short term, the best forcing and moisture continues to remain west of the area closer to the upper level low, so the majority of shower and thunderstorm activity will also remain west of the area. However, by afternoon the upper level low will be close enough to kick off a few storms, especially across central OK.
A weak area of circulation along the Oregon/Idaho/Nevada boarder will move southeast throughout the afternoon, as ridging builds in from the west behind it. Drier and more stable air moves in with the ridging behind this area of circulation. Temperatures this afternoon will reach the low 70s for most, with lows tonight dipping into the 40s. Saturday, slightly warmer temperatures are forecasted with 70s for most, and low 80s across western portions of Nevada.
1117 AM MDT Fri Jun 2 2023 The upper level low off the Pacific Northwest coast continues to sit northwest of Washington with a longwave trough extending to the southeast near the Four Corners region with a highly positive tilt. Cooler temperatures at or below average for this time of year and breezy wind gusts up to 20-30 mph expected each day due to passing rain showers and storm outflows.
Upper ridge will keep the region hot, dry, and nearly cloud free for the remainder of the day. Some mid-level moisture advecting southwestward on the fringe of the retrograding ridge will support some clouds, mainly north along I-80 and the terrain. Ridge will continue to migrate west and build as an upper troughs drop south over New England. A weak cold front will drop south-southwestward toward the upper Ohio Valley on Saturday, though the bulk of the forcing will be focused north and east of the forecast area.
1245 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Currently across the Mid-South we have temperatures in the low to mid 80s. SMW A warming trend will lead to temperatures inching into the low 90s this weekend.
1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Tropical Depression Two continues to remain weak and is moving further from our local area over the Gulf of Mexico as an upper low continues to weaken and shift away as well.
Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s for the shoreline and for areas along the St Johns River.
1103 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Currently across the Mid-South we have temperatures in the low to mid 80s. SMW A warming trend will lead to temperatures inching into the low 90s this weekend.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Mid/upper-level ridging will keep weather conditions and temperatures mostly copacetic and near-seasonal across Deep South Texas through Saturday. Otherwise, another warm and muggy night is anticpated, with lows dropping into the low-mid 70s. Daytime Saturday looks dry and warm again for the region, perhaps a degree or two warmer for inland locations in comparison to today.
Then, it looks like the higher dew points to the west will be able to mix out through diurnal heating/mixing today. This increase in rain chances will be boosted by a weak short wave aloft and associated weak cold front that will drop down into the area from the NE.
This afternoon highs will likely peak the lower 90s across many locations in North and Central Texas. While not everyone will see precipitation, areas across North Texas and East Texas will have the highest coverage of precipitation (50-60%). Those locations that stay cloudy all day will stay in the lower 80s.
349 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 High pressure over the local area is expected to shift southwest as a back door cold front moves southwest into the area Saturday.
While dry air does try to move in over the mountains, a persistent southeast flow at the low-levels will keep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico moving into the area.
The upper level pattern will mostly stay the same with the upper level high still moving to the west. As mentioned before the upper level high will continue moving in from the east, and taming down our storm chances some. It will also help build a ridge over us and continue the high temperatures in the 80s and near 90.
The forecast area will remain situated within easterly flow aloft between now Tropical Storm Arlene in the eastern Gulf and the persistent upper ridge over the Upper Midwest and southern Canada.
For the Florida peninsula, moisture remains on the high side for the most part, so we can still expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, but some relatively drier air looks to work its way over our far northern zones, so rain chances there are a little lower. For the rest of the weekend, troughing will remain aloft over the region with northeast flow continuing and the highest rain chances over the interior.
Discussion: High pressure is passing to our north across northern Wisconsin and Minnesota with a stalled frontal boundary draped across southern southeastern Canadda.
Slightly cooler air along with another more synoptically driven rainfall risk may arrive by mid-week. For now, given the low confidence, will not include in current forecast. SATURDAY: An upper ridge over the western Great Lakes will continue to retrograde westward heading into the weekend.
359 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 A cold front will cross the area today.
(This afternoon through Saturday) It's already 90 degrees in Texarkana and 88 in Tyler and Shreveport and running warmer than 24 hr ago.
(Through tonight ) Isolated shower/convection development associated with max heating has begun within the higher terrain of far Northwest Arkansas and along the Oklahoma Kansas border. which was associated with a mid/upper level low lifting into the Plains this afternoon. the ongoing convection out west is expected to weaken some through the night while the base of the mid/upper level low swings northeast into Oklahoma.
Discussion: Unsettled weather expected today and tonight, as we continue to be influenced by an area of low pressure sitting near the Four Corners region. An unsettled pattern is expected for the foreseeable future as an upper-level blocking pattern persists.
Light easterly wind is augmented NE by lake breeze at MBS and slightly SE along the DTW corridor until easterly flow is reinforced by a backdoor cold front/pressure trough late tonight and Saturday morning. Expansive mid- and upper-level ridging centered over the Great Lakes slowly dislodges westward through the day as a gradual pattern shift towards an omega block commences. 850mb thermal ridge remains overhead and model soundings continue to depict dry, stable conditions. A mid-level trough diving southward into New England tomorrow will help nudge our persistent ridge farther west. Height falls associated with this trough will remain well to our east, but a ribbon of PVA will slide through the region tomorrow coincident with a backdoor cold front. Highs tomorrow will again be well above normal in the upper 80s for inland areas and cooler near the lakeshore.
Then dry weather is expected tonight through Saturday night as the HREF shows the upper ridge is moving to the west. With continued light easterly winds, expect similar lows in the low to mid 60s the next two nights as last night. Highs tomorrow will be in the low-mid 90s under a mostly sunny sky with deep mixing and 850mb temperatures in the 15-20C range.
151 PM PDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley will be slightly warmer today with most of the valley in the high 80's.
The region will be on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge this weekend. Upper level temperatures slowly back down by a couple of degrees each day behind a moisture starved surface cold front that moves through on Saturday.
1153 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 (Rest of Today) High pressure will continue to stretch across the northern Atlantic Coast, pushing a drier airmass into the area.
The models are all in fair agreement on the track of this upper level high pressure system, currently anchored along a line from southern Hudson's Bay Canada down into Michigan and then back toward Arkansas. Over the next 36 hours, that upper high is going to continue to back-build west and north and be centered over southern Canada down into Oklahoma/Texas. In fact, by 18Z Saturday, the upper steering flow may be influenced enough by this upper high, that afternoon-heating-induced isolated/widely scattered convective chances may be a tough sell.
140 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Weak high pressure will be over the region through Saturday. A backdoor cold front that will drop south through the area Saturday evening and night.
(This evening through Saturday Night) Right around 90 degrees for our four state area with most sites running warmer than this time yesterday.
1218 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 (Today) A broad area of negative upper level height anomalies is present across the southern United States, with one upper level low across the Desert Southwest and another over Florida. A weak ridge axis is present near the OK/AR border, with an anomalous upper level ridge centered in southeast Canada. In the short term, the best forcing and moisture continues to remain west of the area closer to the upper level low, so the majority of shower and thunderstorm activity will also remain west of the area. However, by afternoon the upper level low will be close enough to kick off a few storms, especially across central OK.
Warm temperatures expected with ridging and subsidence being the primary impacts of our weather in the short term. Upper ridging and subsidence will result in dry air tonight and Saturday with low RH values in the 20s expected during the afternoon.
These conditions are a result of a mid/upper level ridge building inland into the central California coast.
Highs Saturday will be a couple degrees warmer, mostly in the lower 90's.
Overnight lows will fall to the low to mid 60s, and some patchy fog development cannot be ruled out in fog prone/sheltered valley areas.
617 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 (This evening through Saturday) The southern periphery of a more pronounced trough will continue to move across the area this evening. These storms will expand in coverage as the aforementioned trough and associated large scale ascent become juxtaposed and move through the area.
Discussion: High pressure is passing to our north across northern Wisconsin and Minnesota with a stalled frontal boundary draped across southern southeastern Canada.
The orientation of the pivoting trof and low/mid-level confluent flow should focus an area of numerous showers/embedded storms moving slowly across much of the forecast area on Saturday.
Temperatures were still quite warm in most locations this evening, but will still drop off into the low to mid 60s by morning.
This should allow showers and thunderstorms to drift off the higher terrain and into the Treasure Valley.
626 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) Mid/upper-level ridging will keep weather conditions and temperatures mostly copacetic and near-seasonal across Deep South Texas through Saturday. Otherwise, another warm and muggy night is anticpated, with lows dropping into the low-mid 70s. Daytime Saturday looks dry and warm again for the region, perhaps a degree or two warmer for inland locations in comparison to today.
616 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 High pressure will persist through Saturday with near normal temperatures.
Late this evening into the early overnight hours a strengthening low level jet may be able to use this low amount of MUCAPE to make an isolated thunderstorm, especially in the west and some northern portions. DCAPE is generally 500 to less than 1000 J/kg, although the high amounts of cape and quick collapse of storms is likely contributing to these wind gusts. The upper level pattern will mostly stay the same with the upper level high still moving to the west. As mentioned before the upper level high will continue moving in from the east, and taming down our storm chances some. It will also help build a ridge over us and continue the high temperatures in the 80s and near 90.
DCAPE is generally 500 to less than 1000 J/kg, although the high amounts of cape and quick collapse of storms is likely contributing to these wind gusts. The upper level pattern will mostly stay the same with the upper level high still moving to the west. As mentioned before the upper level high will continue moving in from the east, and taming down our storm chances some. It will also help build a ridge over us and continue the high temperatures in the 80s and near 90.
809 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 High pressure will persist through Saturday with near normal temperatures.
Highs will be a little warmer Saturday as 700mb temperatures recover a bit, but in general still cooler than normal.
Ridge will continue to migrate west and build as an upper troughs drop south over New England. A weak cold front will drop south-southwestward toward the upper Ohio Valley on Saturday, though the bulk of the forcing will be focused north and east of the forecast area.
640 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 A cold front will cross the area this evening.
947 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 High pressure will persist through Saturday with near normal temperatures.
624 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 (Through tonight ) Isolated shower/convection development associated with max heating has begun within the higher terrain of far Northwest Arkansas and along the Oklahoma Kansas border. which was associated with a mid/upper level low lifting into the Plains this afternoon. the ongoing convection out west is expected to weaken some through the night while the base of the mid/upper level low swings northeast into Oklahoma.
Overall drying trend is then expected for the remainder of the evening, however, the upper trough will likely stall and remain in place and almost retrograde a little. Once again, don't anticipate much movement with this upper level trough/low by Saturday, with this trough still overhead and low/mid level moist upslope flow in place. This will help support another active day with shower and thunderstorm development expected over much of southern Colorado, especially over and near the higher terrain given the expected setup. Also, with the mid/upper low overhead on Saturday, think there will be a risk of funnel clouds across the plains.
938 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 A cold front will cross the area this evening.
Less storm coverage and slightly warmer temperatures are on tap for tomorrow as northerly boundary layer flow and weak upper ridging keeps rain chances under control.
Min temps for the overnight will be in the low 60s across the region, except for SDF which should only get down into the mid 60s. While temperatures during the early afternoon were already in the mid/upper 80s dew points across southern IN, the Bluegrass and around Louisville were in the low/mid 50s with some locations had dew points in the 40s. With the dry air in place lows will in the low 60s with a few locations dipping into the upper 50s. High pressure will continue its influence over the region as we start the weekend. With lots of sunshine, a dry ground and continued dry air in place (dew points in the low/mid 50s) temperatures will once again warm to near or even into the low 90s for the afternoon.
Meanwhile, broad mid/upper level troughing will remain in place over the region.
705 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) Right around 90 degrees for our four state area with most sites running warmer than this time yesterday.
629 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 High pressure over the local area is expected to shift southwest as a back door cold front moves southwest into the area Saturday.
Otherwise, expect another relatively typically early June night with lows dropping to the low to mid 60s in most locations.
Hot and mostly dry conditions will be the story this weekend with temperatures in the low 90s.
Currently, low pressure is situated over southeast Montana with a southeast surface flow across western and central North Dakota. In addition, with upper level ridging continuing to build over the area and some drier air at the surface, afternoon instability is also weak today with ML Capes mainly at or below 1000 J/KG, especially west.
The mid and upper level shear axis will remain in place across southwest KS while the upper high across the Northern Plains/Great Lakes will begin to shift back south.
Upper ridging will begin to build to our west across the Four Corners which will begin to place the FA under northwesterly upper flow and will play in to tonight's rain chances.
1150 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023 H5 upper level ridge centered directly over Southeast Michigan has resulted in zero moisture returnt. Continued influence from mid-level ridging has led to yet another hot, dry day across SE MI with most areas in the upper 80s to low 90s. Light northeasterly flow off Lake Huron has helped keep the eastern Thumb and Saginaw Valley a bit cooler in the lower to mid 80s. Ridging shifts further west Saturday in response to mid/upper level trough digging into New England. This trough sends a weakening backdoor cold front through the central Great Lakes over the course of the day. With a well-mixed boundary layer generating inverted-V profiles below this higher based activity (>5kft agl), gustier winds up around 40mph will be possible with any storm.
A cold front brings showers/storms this afternoon and evening.
A ridge of high pressure over the Western United States will slowly weaken this weekend.
Zone of convective redevelopment today will most likely extend from portions of north-central Oklahoma, to areas east of OKC, down into southeast Oklahoma along and east of quasi-stationary mid level trough axis. By late in the day, there are still signals from CAMs to develop a smaller complex of storms (compared to last night) over the High Plains that could progress southeastward toward the region tonight into early Sunday. For most of the forecast area, with additional cloud cover, temperatures today are expected to be 3 to 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, from northern down into central/southeast Oklahoma.
Temps wl once again climb into the low 80s to low to mid 90s at most locations on Sun afternoon, w/ rain chances staying more limited to isolated showers over portions of Wrn and S/Wrn AR.
(Today through Sunday) A mid-level anticyclone remains centered near Winnipeg, Manitoba, while downstream an upper low will move southward to New England. A weaker trough extends down the Atlantic coast and becomes positively tilted into the northeast Gulf, connecting to Tropical Storm Arlene.
This morning's sounding, along with current WV imagery, shows a bit of dry air overhead which, along with weak mid level ridging, has been sufficient in keeping convection in check today.
333 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 High pressure remains to our north, but is far enough away at this hour that the pressure gradient across our region is fairly lax, leading to light and variable or even calm winds at observing sites. Expect that high pressure to nudge southward today, inducing more of a northeasterly wind thru the day, event perhaps gusting to 15 kts at times.
A deep-layered upper and mid level trough axis sits over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As Arlene weakens and the mid-level trough advances east and south, the remnant moisture will be directed through the Florida Straits tonight into Sunday. Overnight lows will range from the mid to upper 60s inland to the lower to mid 70s along the coast.