Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1147 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure slides over to the east today and will result in easterly flow. This easterly flow will in turn develop an inverted trough over the area. This inverted trough will increase the southerly flow and bring in gulf moisture across the southwest. Effectively this flow will result in a "warm front" boundary lifting north overnight and into the day Tuesday. At the same time a cold front will be sliding southward and will begin to force the moisture back to the south by late Tuesday afternoon.
(The rest of today ) Another warm afternoon in store for the forecast area, though temps will be a little bit cooler behind a cold front that makes an initial push into NE OK this morning and into the afternoon.
126 PM MST Mon Mar 6 2023 Northerly winds are now present across the area, following cold front passage yesterday evening. Low temperatures this morning are expected to fall into the low 20s to low 30s. As mentioned in previous discussion, forecast soundings continue to indicate the potential for freezing drizzle with dry mid-levels, saturated low-levels, and a warm nose present Monday night-Tuesday morning over eastern Colorado.
Any lingering precipitation will exit stage east after midnight, though stratus will linger as ridging from high pressure centered over central Canada begins to build into the area.
708 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 Weak system brings a cold front with showers tonight with mountain showers lingering on Tuesday. Ridging midweek.
A mid level high pressure axis tries to meander east, helping to keep the area dry through the day.
Additionally, CAMs indicate the prevailing northeast winds will increase in the low-levels and bring an uptick in QPF to far eastern WI this evening into late this evening. Mid-level ridging will build into the region later tonight into Tuesday and allow clouds to gradually decrease into Tuesday. Tuesday Night Through Monday High pressure will keep the weather dry for the middle part of the week, with temperatures around normal for this time of year. A low pressure system developing over the southern Plains will lift northeast towards the southern Great Lakes region by the end of the week.
As precipitation diminishes over western and central areas this evening, there may be enough clearing, along with recent precipitation moistening up the lower levels to allow for fog to form.
812 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 Weak system brings a cold front with showers tonight with mountain showers lingering on Tuesday. Ridging midweek.
A dry cold front will move through the forecast area tonight, bringing an end to our taste of late spring warmth. Mid-level ridging and cool high pressure centered over the northern Plains will bring seasonable temperatures to the region for Tuesday.
639 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 A cold front will move through the region tonight.
910 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 A cold front will move through the region tonight.
An additional upper-low offshore is entering the area tonight as troughing persists.
Key Points: - Cooler pattern sets up tomorrow and persists through the weekend.
538 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) A surface cold front was currently (as of 1:30 pm) located from near Paducah to Silverton to Amarillo. These clouds should help to keep high temperatures tomorrow much cooler mainly in the upper 50s to 60s. Models have a tendency to poorly handle these cooler airmasses but with this airmass being marginally cool in the first place it remains uncertain if the cooler air will remain in place rather than being shunted east during the day like most operational guidance (including the hi-res guidance) indicates due to strengthening lee troughing near the NM/TX state line.
Latest run of snow totals puts the highest amounts west of the James River, with amounts around 6 inches or higher across north central SD.
644 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 (Through Tuesday) A broad upper level ridge will prevail along the Gulf Coast this period keeping things warm.
418 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) An initial cold front made it a little further south today than anticipated yesterday, with the pre-frontal trough located across south central OK instead of central OK. Here, temperatures have climbed into the low 80s as expected. The cold front will surge a little further south overnight before stalling near the Red River around sunrise.
533 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Latest CAMs as well as deterministic model runs indicate that the weak cold front will exit the forecast area between 22z and 00z this evening. However, there is a lot of dry air to overcome in the low levels due to easterly surface flow.
305 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Key Messages: - Unseasonably warm today, a bt cooler tomorrow.
Lows will be in the low to mid 20s in our south and east but teens and even a single digit or two are expected in central to western MN. As a result, Tuesday night's lows will be warmer in the mid to upper 20s.
557 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Key Messages: - Unseasonably warm today, a bt cooler tomorrow.
A weak cold front will bring cooler, but still mild temperatures back into the Midsouth tonight along with a north breeze. Rain returns midweek along with even cooler temperatures. 30/Sirmon Dry and warm conditions continue today before a weak cold front arrives tomorrow night and marks the return of cooler temperatures and an uptick in rain chances.
A broad, quasi-stationary upper-level trough sits off the the Pacific coast and continues to eject bits of energy northeastward toward the area.
(This evening through Tuesday) An initial cold front made it a little further south today than anticipated yesterday, with the pre-frontal trough located across south central OK instead of central OK. Here, temperatures have climbed into the low 80s as expected. The cold front will surge a little further south overnight before stalling near the Red River around sunrise.
Issued by National Weather Service Nashville TN 551 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Dry and warm conditions continue today before a weak cold front arrives tomorrow night and marks the return of cooler temperatures and an uptick in rain chances.
This pattern could lead to freezing drizzle, fo'shizzle, for areas in the northeastern plains and northern urban corridor after midnight through Tuesday morning. There could be thin patchy spots of ice along the roads such as I-76 so those traveling Tuesday AM commute should use caution; there is higher confidence for the Cheyenne Ridge, Sterling, and Julesburg receiving these conditions. A few cross sections keep low clouds at least through 1 PM thus afternoon highs were significantly lowered; most of the region will experience temperatures near the upper 20s to mid 30s with the exception of the Palmer Divide reaching the lower 40s. Previous model runs had this large trough farther south and gave our plains a decent shot of snowfall.
604 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 (Tonight) Early this afternoon, a cold front was located near the I-44 corridor across northeast Oklahoma. Dry conditions are expected through tonight behind this shallow cold front. Did trend a little cooler than the NBM overnight with most new guidance coming in colder.
554 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 (This evening through Tuesday night) The main forecast challenge in the short term will be the movement, or lack there of, of a cold front which is currently across the southwest Texas Panhandle. We are leaning toward the cooler solution of the NBM 5th percentile for highs on Tuesday. This is based off of upstream observations and what is currently going on across the Panhandles with the initial surge of cooler air.
Daytime highs should remain above normal: in the lower 80s near the coast, mid 80s elsewhere, and near 90 inland and Southwest FL.
532 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Today through Tomorrow: With the returning low-level moisture and warmer temperatures, widespread cumulus have developed in this spring like atmosphere today. The chance for isolated showers will spread north tonight, while a cold front dips south into the region. Warm, humid weather with spotty showers will continue into the day Tuesday, with temperatures still about 15 degrees warmer than normal. High pressure to the south advects warm air northward, while mid level height falls influence areas north, setting up a stationary boundary across central Mississippi.
559 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Warm and humid conditions will persist through Tuesday night with modest ridging aloft and light to moderate south-southeasterly winds at the surface as high pressure remains across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the Western Atlantic. Afternoon highs should top out in the low to upper 80s for most each afternoon as clouds scattered out while a few 90s will be possible across the Rio Grande plains.
1100 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 (Rest of tonight) A front with much drier and cooler air currently stretches from southern Indiana/Illinois southwestward into northwestern Arkansas and eastern Texas. Most guidance does depict some isolated to scattered showers developing briefly as a forcing along/ahead of a prefrontal trough axis combines with increasing moisture advection and some elevated instability after midnight south of the Tennessee River.
So far, southerly winds have remained elevated enough to keep the low cigs from settling to the surface, and visibilities remain in the 4 to 6 SM range.
1046 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Latest CAMs as well as deterministic model runs indicate that the weak cold front will exit the forecast area between 22z and 00z this evening. However, there is a lot of dry air to overcome in the low levels due to easterly surface flow.
/JNE/ Today through Tomorrow: With the returning low-level moisture and warmer temperatures, widespread cumulus have developed in this spring like atmosphere today. The chance for isolated showers will spread north tonight, while a cold front dips south into the region. Warm, humid weather with spotty showers will continue into the day Tuesday, with temperatures still about 15 degrees warmer than normal. High pressure to the south advects warm air northward, while mid level height falls influence areas north, setting up a stationary boundary across central Mississippi.
A mixture of rain and snow is expected based on temperatures near to slightly above freezing. This is as the 850 mb low and 700-500 mb trough, now located over Wisconsin this afternoon, moves through late this evening. Recent runs of the HRRR have focused the heaviest band of precip even a bit farther south/southwest, into the warmer air and precip-type transition zone.
(Rest of tonight) A front with much drier and cooler air currently stretches from southern Indiana/Illinois southwestward into northwestern Arkansas and eastern Texas. Most guidance does depict some isolated to scattered showers developing briefly as a forcing along/ahead of a prefrontal trough axis combines with increasing moisture advection and some elevated instability after midnight south of the Tennessee River.
The cold front has made it's way through the entire area, but with cold advection with the saturated layer for stratus lingering around 50 miles west of the front, we've warmed up nicely in the sunshine and mixing, resulting in highs in the lower 50s to lower 60s in far eastern Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. Farther northwest, where it started with the stratus, highs have struggled to rise past the lower 40s, making for a raw feel to the day when combined with the wind of 15 to 25 mph.
1056 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Warm and humid conditions will persist through Tuesday night with modest ridging aloft and light to moderate south-southeasterly winds at the surface as high pressure remains across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the Western Atlantic. Afternoon highs should top out in the low to upper 80s for most each afternoon as clouds scattered out while a few 90s will be possible across the Rio Grande plains.
When temperature drops to near and below freezing north of I 80, rain will transition to snow and may result in 1-2. Mid-upper level high pressure will develop and begin to clear out skies during the afternoon on Tuesday. Long range model ensembles indicate that open low pressure, capable of bringing in cold air, will propagate through the area this weekend. Expect improvement to to VFR during mid-morning as high pressure returns.
1046 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) An initial cold front made it a little further south today than anticipated yesterday, with the pre-frontal trough located across south central OK instead of central OK. Here, temperatures have climbed into the low 80s as expected. The cold front will surge a little further south overnight before stalling near the Red River around sunrise.
Dewpoints in the low 50s to upper 30s were also observed from the front to the Oklahoma Kansas border. warmer temps of mid 50s and the potential for low cloud development are forecast into Southeast Oklahoma.
339 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2023 A large area of high pressure over Manitoba will result in breezy but generally seasonable conditions through mid week. Some light snow showers are possible in the higher terrain south of lake Ontario during this time, but overall most of the area will remain dry. High pressure centered over Manitoba early this morning will extend southwards across the Great Lakes region though tonight. The position of the high will maintain a general northerly flow across the eastern Great Lakes and send dry continental polar air into the region. As we move into the latter part of the day and into tonight, a closed upper low to our east will retrograde westwards.
Still appears that portions of north central South Dakota will see the highest snow accumulations by event's end. Latest run of snow totals puts the highest amounts west of the James River, with amounts around 6 inches or higher across north central SD.
Another short wave trough will pivot away from the main low pressure center off the coast and swing trough our area on Tuesday. The lower elevations will likely see graupel mixed in with the snow due to the comparatively warmer temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
1037 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 (This evening through Tuesday night) The main forecast challenge in the short term will be the movement, or lack there of, of a cold front which is currently across the southwest Texas Panhandle. We are leaning toward the cooler solution of the NBM 5th percentile for highs on Tuesday. This is based off of upstream observations and what is currently going on across the Panhandles with the initial surge of cooler air.
235 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2023 A dry cold front will cross the area today.
1033 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) A surface cold front was currently (as of 1:30 pm) located from near Paducah to Silverton to Amarillo. These clouds should help to keep high temperatures tomorrow much cooler mainly in the upper 50s to 60s. Models have a tendency to poorly handle these cooler airmasses but with this airmass being marginally cool in the first place it remains uncertain if the cooler air will remain in place rather than being shunted east during the day like most operational guidance (including the hi-res guidance) indicates due to strengthening lee troughing near the NM/TX state line.
/ISSUED 455 PM MST Mon Mar 6 2023/ A broad, quasi-stationary upper-level trough sits off the the Pacific coast and continues to eject bits of energy northeastward toward the area.
1113 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Key Messages: - Unseasonably warm today, a bit cooler tomorrow.
108 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2023 Clouds will persist through the morning in the wake of a cold front. High pressure will begin building into the region this afternoon with clouds giving way to increasing sunshine. This high will build across the region offering a dry weather period for the middle of the week. Otherwise, a cold front has moved into southeast portions of our area this evening and it will continue to move off to the southeast through the night. Lows tonight will range from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south.
Discussion: A cold front will move across the area this morning with northerly winds through the afternoon. As high pressure continues to build in at the surface with upper and mid-level ridging, a mostly clear sky is expected. High pressure will continue to build across the region tonight with the pressure gradient beginning to lessen late tonight.
233 AM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 A H7 ridge will move east of the area through tonight. Today will be dry and cooler with a strong and expansive area of high pressure extending south across the area.
323 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2023 A weakly defined cold front is continuing to work south through the CWA. Cold air advection will help limit high temperatures to the 50s, which is about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
A cold front will be making its way southward through the area after midnight, resulting in a northerly wind shift. No precipitation is expected with this front tonight, but it will result in a sharp cool down Tuesday with forecast highs about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than what they were today.
- Izzi *Storm system looks to bring another chance for accumulating wintry precipitation late week *Below normal temperatures looking to persist through the period The period looks to start off on a quiet note as a upper-level ridge is expected to reside over the Great Lakes region.
458 AM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 A H7 ridge will move east of the area through tonight. Today will be dry and cooler with a strong and expansive area of high pressure extending south across the area.
Drier air will continue to push into the area as surface and mid-level ridging slides into the western Great Lakes. ridging will slowly push east, allowing mid and high clouds to spread west to east back into the region. But any precip will stay west of the area, closer to a slow advancing trough of low pressure. low and mid-level ridging will hold strong across the area, keeping dry conditions.
There will be an amplification in the mid level troughing now over the Dakotas/Minnesota as it expands across the Great Lakes later today into Wednesday.
Persistent troughing over the Pacific Northwest through the week's end will leave us in a mild southwest to westerly flow. This will lead to warmer temperatures and a much moister air mass moving into the region.
Mid-level ridging will be prevalent across the northern Gulf coast which will yield more record warmth through midweek.
(Today and tonight) Potentially tricky temperature forecast for today with the cold front lingering in the forecast area all day. After sunset tonight, temperatures will drop as the cold front dives southwest through the remainder of the forecast area. Temperatures at 850mb will remain slightly warmer with a cap developing late tonight across much of the area. The wind and tornado threats remain very low given the low level capping inversion. With the front finally through the area by Wednesday morning, low temperatures will be a bit cooler than the last few mornings.
The lower dewpoints combined with downsloping NW winds at the surface and aloft, will allow for MinRH values of 25% and below across northern portions of GA.
655 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2023 A large area of high pressure over Manitoba will result in breezy but generally seasonable conditions through mid week. Some light snow showers are possible in the higher terrain south of lake Ontario during this time, but overall most of the area will remain dry. High pressure centered over Manitoba this morning will extend southwards across the Great Lakes region though tonight. The position of the high will maintain a general northerly flow across the eastern Great Lakes and send dry continental polar air into the region. Later in the day and into tonight, a closed upper low to our east will retrograde westwards.
Drier mid levels, though, will result in a mix of freezing drizzle and snow especially as the precip pushes east of the James Valley tonight. While a mention is not in the grids after tonight, the regime remains mostly the same on Wednesday with good llm and the potential for some stratus and freezing drizzle rather than or along with some flurries.
With a transitory ridge of high pressure overhead this morning, mostly clear skies outside of low stratus and fog are leading to very cold temperatures with coldest areas further north and east reaching down into the single and double digits below zero.
Otherwise, a weak cold front will push southward into the region today, and this is expected to provide just enough low level convergence for isolated to scattered showers to develop this afternoon. For tonight, some slightly cooler and drier air will infiltrate into the northern portions of the forecast area behind the weak front with overnight lows ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s across the region.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, a weak cold front is entering far northern portions of the Big Country. Low clouds will gradually scatter out by early afternoon, allowing temperatures to warm into the lower 80s south of the frontal boundary.
410 AM MST Tue Mar 7 2023 Cool and at times unsettled weather persists through the rest of the week as several weather disturbances move out of a deep low pressure system centered off the Pacific Northwest Coast. A deep upper level low remains centered off the WA/OR coast within a broader trough extending S and SW from NW Canada.
945 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2023 A large area of high pressure over Manitoba will result in breezy but generally seasonable conditions through mid week. Some light snow showers are possible in the higher terrain south of lake Ontario during this time, but overall most of the area will remain dry. High pressure centered over Manitoba will extend southwards across the Great Lakes region though tonight. The position of the high will maintain a general northerly flow across the Lower Great Lakes and send dry continental polar air into the region. Late today and into tonight, a closed upper low to our east will retrograde westwards.
535 AM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 (Today) Early morning temperatures range from the lower 50s north of the TN River to upper 50s/lower 60s south of the TN River. As the front shifts south of the area today, clear skies and slightly cooler temperatures will move into the area with highs only reaching the lower 70s today.
A warmer storm system late this week into the weekend will bring higher elevation snow along with moderate to heavy rain with local flooding impacts of small creeks and streams possible. An additional 1-2 ft of snow accumulation is likely across the NorCal mountains through Wednesday with lighter amounts down into the lower foothill elevations.
357 AM MST Tue Mar 7 2023 08z surface analysis had inverted trough from northeast WY into western NE. Patchy FZDZ west of snow over the higher Black Hills as well as patchy fog.
A weakly defined cold front is continuing to work south through the CWA. Cold air advection will help limit high temperatures to the 50s, which is about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
601 AM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a weak cold front is entering far northern portions of the Big Country. Low clouds will gradually scatter out by early afternoon, allowing temperatures to warm into the lower 80s south of the frontal boundary.
535 AM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Texas will be on the western side of an upper level ridge during the short term part of this forecast period. High pressure over the Gulf will keep the low level flow from the southeast Tuesday and Wednesday.
616 AM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 (Today through Wednesday) A cold front has made it to I-40 and will continue to work southward and clear the area by dawn. Temperatures will be cooler today with highs in the 60s and a 10-15 mph north wind.
(Rest of Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this morning with high pressure nudging off to the east still in control of things across the Tennessee Valley. Highs today will peak in the low to mid 70s in most locations.