Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1230 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 Low pressure will shift east as high pressure builds back into the region overnight into Thursday. This high will bring drier air and near seasonable temperatures. A dry cold front will push south through the area later Thursday with below normal temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend. Also, based on clouds have used a CONSSHORT for temperatures which was a little cooler in the east, where clouds are expected to hold longer. Low temperatures to range from the upper 20s north to the lower 30s south. High pressure builds in from the northwest on Friday. Upper and middle level clouds are likely to stick around and could filter any sunshine that would normally make it feel warmer.
Latest radar and sfc obs shows pockets of light precipitation falling ahead of the next approaching cold front currently bisecting the Pac NW this afternoon. All the models indicate a closed low developing Thursday morning over generally SC Idaho and slowly sagging to the SE through Friday evening.
936 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling and updated forecast will adjust lows slightly cooler for a few areas. As such, and despite mostly clear skies overnight, temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer than last night with temperatures expected to drop into the low- mid 30s.
Given how fast the trough opens up and moves out of our region tonight, did not carry over pops across our eastern half beyond midnight tonight. May see brief clearing late tonight in the wake of the upper trough but it will be brief with more cloud cover returning for the first half of Friday. Nearly zonal flow will prevail across the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley in the wake of tonight's upper trough passage but winds will swing around to the northeast at the surface. This plus in and out cloud cover will help to again taper temperatures somewhat with forecast highs on Friday ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower and middle 60s south.
Quiet weather expected today with near normals highs in the low 40s north to mid/upper 40s central and south. A cold front will pass through this morning leading to breezy north winds, which will add a bit of a chill to the air with afternoon wind chills hovering in the 30s and 20s. Then even colder conditions are anticipated on Friday with highs in the low to mid 30s.
At the surface, low pressure over southeastern Colorado and high pressure nosing in from the north will have winds increasing out of the northeast this morning with gusts to ~20-30 mph. Throughout the day today, the upper level trough slides southeast, with a cut off low eventually developing over the Intermountain West. On Friday, the upper low over Utah will progress eastward during the evening-overnight hours.
907 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 If you are a Floridian, this day started on the cooler side, especially from Tampa Bay northward. This northerly flow is advecting a cooler and drier continental airmass into the area as well, with this most noticeable across the Nature Coast. As a trough digs in Pacific NW, the low over Texas gets pushed eastward. While slightly cooler and drier today, moisture remains sufficient to preclude any fire weather concerns.
901 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 High pressure across the area this morning will give way to a developing lee side troughiness by the afternoon.
624 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 Cold front passes this afternoon into early tonight.
Greatest accumulating snowfall risk is across the MO River Valley into the Highway 20 corridor. High pressure overhead on Friday keeps highs much colder than average, only into the 20s to near 30 (about 10-15 degrees below average). High pressure slides to the southeast Friday night.
508 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 (Today through Friday) An upper-level closed low currently sits just off the western coast of Mexico and is expected to move northeast across South-Central Texas through the daytime hours today. However, cloud cover may not fill in completely over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country and some locations may see brief freezing temperatures this morning, particularly low lying areas of the Hill Country. With abundant dry air at the low levels, any precipitation that does fall will be very light.
638 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 Dry and seasonable conditions are expected for the bulk of Thanksgiving Day before a precipitation free cold front leads to a potentially prolonged period of below average temperature.
953 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 A cold front moves southeast across the area this evening into tonight.
During the course of the morning and into the early afternoon, the skies are expected to clear out and with a southerly wind could help the high temperatures for today reach into the low 60s. Looking into tonight, with the clear skies with light and variable winds, radiation cooling looks to be the main factor for the cold temperatures tonight as we can see lows in the in the upper 40s for most of the Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Vally, while lower 50s for the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Depending on the cloud formation both timing and thickness, high temperatures may actually favor the upper 60s instead of the low 70s.
(Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Light, spotty rain then clearing skies by afternoon (Thanksgiving) - Fog Thursday night/Friday morning High pressure is over South Texas, with the ridge axis over the Coastal Bend this morning. It has taken a while, but the rain, on radar, is looking like it might be hitting the ground, however, there is still a lot of dry air in the lower levels. While the low is a cut off, it is beginning to get back into the sub-tropical and is expected later today to move quickly through South Texas, taking the rain and clouds with it. Models suggest that the rain should be out of the forecast area by 21z/Thu with the low moving into Louisiana.
Rain and snow throughout the day today from the upper level low system that is starting in northern Nevada and making its way southeast today and into Friday morning. A high pressure ridge will quickly soon follow over the weekend, clearing out the weather and bringing in warmer temperatures. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 30s to 40s and lows in the teens to 20s. Southbound breezes of 15-20 mph, gusts 25 mph, expected during the day with the higher winds speeds near the mountain tops. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday with highs in the upper 20s to 30s with parts of N.
Areas of light snow will continue through Thanksgiving, with the highest snowfall amounts occurring in the mountains and north and east upslope favored areas across Central and Southwest Montana. Upper-level trough and associated closed low continues to propagate south and east, further reducing the QPF and total snowfall accumulation expected across North- central, Central, and Southwest Montana.
945 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 Dry and seasonable conditions are expected for the bulk of Thanksgiving Day before a precipitation free cold front leads to a potentially prolonged period of below average temperature.
A dry cold front will drop through the area through mid-afternoon, and will bring back some additional cloud cover. As innocuous as the passage of the cold front is with respect to precipitation, it will bring temperatures down quite a bit by Friday morning. However, the upper jet and deep cold air stays north of the area, and ridging builds in fairly strong in the lower levels. Highs on Friday will only be in the lower 30s.
238 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Northwest flow is set up over the Montana and Alberta with a strong trough and underlying arctic air passing through Montana. Further upstream in the northwest flow another ridge has developed over the Gulf of Alaska and runs onshore over the Alaska Panhandle and northern British Columbia. A weak trough sets behind that which curls back into the coldest air of the northern Hemisphere which currently sets over the center of the Arctic Ocean. Today through Friday night: The trough aloft is currently strung out from west to east across Montana as cold high pressure moves through at the surface. This stratified atmosphere will shut off any remaining snow by mid morning and prevent daytimes highs from reaching above freezing for these periods.
Meanwhile upper level flow will be nearly zonal in the wake of yesterdays trough passage. The low will pull moisture northward as it speeds through Georgia, and this could generate a few light rain showers between 7 PM tonight and 7 AM Friday.
512 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 (Today and tonight) Another clear night will bring in temperatures right around the freezing mark for this morning's low temperatures. The disturbance will end up developing cloud cover overnight, which will keep tonight's low temperatures in the upper 40s (a bit warmer than this morning).
This cloud cover is tied to an upper level trough that is currently moving across the region. As this trough progresses toward the Great Basin region, it is expected to deepen, which will result in increasing north to east winds for interior NorCal beginning this afternoon and lasting into Friday morning. Prior to the onset of cooler temperatures brought about by the aforementioned north to east winds, a mild Thanksgiving is in store as Valley high temperatures rebound into the mid to upper 60s, with a few low 70s not out of the question across portions of the Delta. As alluded to though, cooler temperatures are then anticipated from Friday into the weekend. High temperatures look to remain in the low 60s for Valley locations and upper 40s to low 50s across the mountains.
357 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 - Dry weather forecast today with progressively cooler temperatures into the weekend.
(Now through Friday) Latest water vapor imagery shows a southern stream trough over northern Mexico, with west-southwest flow over the local area. This trough is expect to become a closed low over the next couple of hours as it moves northeastward and into southern Texas. The closed low will open to a wave late tonight and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley. We'll maintain some cloud cover on Friday, given the westerly mid level flow, and highs will warm into the lower to mid 60s.
532 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 (Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Light, spotty rain then clearing skies by afternoon (Thanksgiving) - Fog Thursday night/Friday morning High pressure is over South Texas, with the ridge axis over the Coastal Bend this morning. It has taken a while, but the rain, on radar, is looking like it might be hitting the ground, however, there is still a lot of dry air in the lower levels. While the low is a cut off, it is beginning to get back into the sub-tropical and is expected later today to move quickly through South Texas, taking the rain and clouds with it. Models suggest that the rain should be out of the forecast area by 21z/Thu with the low moving into Louisiana.
513 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 Dry and seasonable conditions are expected for the bulk of Thanksgiving Day before a precipitation free cold front leads to a potentially prolonged period of below average temperature.
640 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 High pressure across the area this morning will give way to a developing lee side troughiness by the afternoon.
524 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 - Dry weather forecast today with progressively cooler temperatures into the weekend.
This northerly flow is advecting a cooler and drier continental airmass into the area as well, with this most noticeable across the Nature Coast. As a trough digs in Pacific NW, the low over Texas gets pushed eastward. While slightly cooler and drier today, moisture remains sufficient to preclude any fire weather concerns.
(Today and tonight) Another clear night will bring in temperatures right around the freezing mark for this morning's low temperatures. The disturbance will end up developing cloud cover overnight, which will keep tonight's low temperatures in the upper 40s (a bit warmer than this morning).
This will result in lows in the low 30s and upper 20s west of the Cascades and teens east. There is a 40-60% probability that locations below 1,000" near the coast will see freezing temperatures through most of the night, and this would be focused in Coos County. High pressure will return this weekend and this will keep dry conditions ahead.
The air may have some bite to it as we'll be in the wake of a cold front that is currently moving southeast of the area, and cold advection will be occuring. Tomorrow, winds will persist before easing in the afternoon as an area of strong high pressure moves into the upper midwest. Highs will be in the low 30s with continued dry and sunny conditions.
304 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 (This afternoon through Friday) 500mb analysis shows a mid level low pressure center across far southern TX this afternoon. The low center will begin to move northeast overnight and fill. At the surface, high pressure will continue through the period.
1124 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 - Dry weather forecast today with progressively cooler temperatures into the weekend.
/96 (Now through Friday) Latest water vapor imagery shows a southern stream trough over northern Mexico, with west-southwest flow over the local area. This trough is expect to become a closed low over the next couple of hours as it moves northeastward and into southern Texas. The closed low will open to a wave late tonight and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley. We'll maintain some cloud cover on Friday, given the westerly mid level flow, and highs will warm into the lower to mid 60s.
Cloud cover will keep things a bit warmer tonight but still looking at lows in the 30s, fog will also be possible once again but should not be as dense given the expected cloud cover. Satellite imagery along with observations show areas of fog and freezing fog, and visibilities are down to less than one mile in many locations. Conditions should rapidly improve after sunrise, and the current Freezing Fog Advisory is expected to expire at 8 AM. Fortunately, tonight's temperatures should stay above freezing, minimizing the risk for slick roads, bridges, and overpasses. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough will be crossing the Rockies and Great Plains this weekend.
120 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 High pressure will build northeast into the region today and bring partial clearing of the extensive low cloud deck that blanketed much of the state early this morning. A moisture starved cold front will drift southeast across the Commonwealth tonight.
1251 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 A cold front moves southeast across the area this evening into tonight.
351 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 A weak cold front tonight will usher in slightly colder air for Friday into the upcoming weekend.
(Tonight through Friday night) This evening will be pleasantly cool and drying off with the moisture from a weak upper low pulling away into East TX. A longer period of sunshine for Friday will lead to a warmer afternoon for most of the area.
1141 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 (Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Light, spotty rain then clearing skies by afternoon (Thanksgiving) - Fog Thursday night/Friday morning High pressure is over South Texas, with the ridge axis over the Coastal Bend this morning. It has taken a while, but the rain, on radar, is looking like it might be hitting the ground, however, there is still a lot of dry air in the lower levels. While the low is a cut off, it is beginning to get back into the sub-tropical and is expected later today to move quickly through South Texas, taking the rain and clouds with it. Models suggest that the rain should be out of the forecast area by 21z/Thu with the low moving into Louisiana.
1201 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 High pressure across the area this morning will give way to a developing lee side troughiness by the afternoon.
148 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Key Message: 1) Quiet and dry to close out the Thanksgiving holiday into Friday High pressure currently centered just north of North Dakota, with ridging extending into the northern Plains and Midwest, will continue to build southeast into the area to close out the week. This will leave us with quiet weather, dry conditions and cooler Canadian air. Look for lows tonight to fall into the teens/20s, with highs Friday ranging from the low to mid 30s.
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 A warm front will stall out across Central Pennsylvania this weekend.
Portions of the Florida Keys did see some rain at times in addition to the ongoing reverse cloud line across the Lower Keys earlier in the afternoon. Low level ridging across the north Gulf states is slowly sliding eastward and as a result, surface winds are clocking around to the east and southeast.
Upper level trough is lifting northeastward along the periphery of the H5 ridge that has been meandering over the south-central Plains the past week. At the surface there are a couple weak lows over eastern Colorado, providing the low level focus for storm initiation, with decent instability per SPC Mesoscale analysis.
Upper ridging continues to build in through Saturday, resulting in warmer and mostly dry conditions through much of the weekend.
Warm and humid nights will continue with overnight lows in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
A strong high pressure system building over the state will lead to warming temperatures and dry conditions persisting through the weekend.
Course of least regret is to add the low PoP and remove later if this misses us or falls apart.
Some increased low- level moisture is hanging on with dewpoints in the lower 60s across eastern portions where low clouds and fog were slow to scour out this morning. A quiet night is expected tonight (aside from possibly a few showers over Isle Royale during the evening), as weak high pressure builds in.
A strong ridge is building over the region but is amplified into Idaho and western Montana and shifting east. The ridge flattens with more of a westerly flow forecast over the PacNW through the weekend.
High temperatures in the lower 80s are expected away from the immediate lakeshore.
609 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 A warm front will stall out across Central Pennsylvania this weekend.
825 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Upper ridging continues to build in through Saturday, resulting in warmer and mostly dry conditions through much of the weekend.
Main story continues to be the heat, as high pressure aloft remains parked to our northwest over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Tampa (KTPA) tied a record high today of 96 degrees, previously reached back in 2014, with most of the area topping out in the mid 90s and a few pockets even warmer. Not a lot of changes on the general weather pattern, an upper- level ridge remains centered to our west keeping fairly light ENE flow in place across the peninsula, and a weak surface boundary remains stalled over across southern FL. Still though, temperatures will remain around the mid 90s until we approach the evening hours, with heat indices reaching the lower 100s.
1041 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 A warm front will stall out across Central Pennsylvania this weekend.
Also, with the expected cloud cover/precip chances, temperatures will likely be cooler over most areas providing some relief from the excessive heat seen over the last several days.
Tomorrow will be cooler than recent days and there is a marginal risk of severe storms near/along this boundary with a threat of damaging winds.
Another mesoscale convective system has developed this evening in southern KY and will rotate around the upper ridge to our west. Otherwise expect passing high clouds overnight with low temperatures generally in the low 70s. Relatively little overall change in the pattern Saturday with the upper high center remaining to our west, though it will nose slightly east into our region as an upper trough shifts east across the Central Plains. Latest guidance suggests generally mid to upper 90s highs, with dewpoints in the lower 70s. The upper trough will shift east into the Midwest Sun/Sun nt, suppressing the upper ridge but with little overall change to H5 heights/temps for our region.
629 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Upper ridge centered over LA/MS this morning with a trough extending from WY southward across AZ. This trough will move over the Rockies today and onto the plains tonight flattening out the ridge as it moves east Saturday. Temperatures tonight should fall into the low to mid 70s with a few 60s before warming into the 90s Saturday. A couple degrees cooler Saturday night.
Tonight and Saturday Cumulus clouds should dissipate during the early evening hours, though middle and high clouds associated with the low pressure system over Illinois may remain across the southern third of the forecast area tonight. Lighter winds will permit a more significant lake breeze to form near Lake Michigan and keep the lakeshore cooler.
High pressure will strengthen across the region bringing a warming and drying trend through the upcoming weekend.
With only a few low-level clouds moving overhead due to the meso-high pressure over Lake Superior (but with some high- level clouds moving through the area this morning), thinking low temps will stay in the 50s across the UP.
By this afternoon and evening, the ridge that has been situated over the Lower MS Valley will begin to flatten as a trough makes its way east. High temps for today are forecast to range from the mid 80s in northeast TN to the low/mid 90s in the southern valley near Chattanooga.
252 AM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023 With the longwave trough finally out of the way moving across the Central Plains, Wyoming can finally get a small taste of summer this holiday weekend. H5 ridge centered across California will try to extend across the Great Basin into western Wyoming starting today. Sunday the ridge will get a better hold on the state, holding off convection for the day, and nudging temps up another few degrees. Beyond this, the next large-scale trough drifts east across the Canadian Prairies starting Sunday, which will drag a weak cold front to the MT/WY border Sunday night.
An expansive ridge of high pressure begins to build over the Desert Southwest and as a result temperatures will begin to warm. Weak northwest flow continues tomorrow with little movement of the high pressure. The ridge to our west will continue to influence temperatures so highs come up another few degrees. The southeast Utah canyon country may break 100 in a few spots, while some of the mountain towns reach the lower 80s. Any lingering showers and storms in the higher terrain and along the Continental Divide will quickly diminish after sunset Sunday evening.
(Today and tonight) A couple of mid-level short wave troughs will move through the bast of the synoptic trough ranging from western Texas to western Quebec. At the surface, a weak cold front will move slowly into central Oklahoma then pass into southern Oklahoma this evening.
Temperatures will be cooler for Saturday. * Warmer and drier conditions are expected beginning Sunday.
409 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 Upper-level ridging remains centered over the deep south early this morning with the surface pattern featuring a near-diffuse boundary over the southern Florida peninsula with weak high pressure over the rest of the area. Otherwise, not much change as rain chances remain on the high side. Rain chances remain on the low side again today, but will gradually increase over the next few days.
1223 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Upper ridge centered over LA/MS this morning with a trough extending from WY southward across AZ. This trough will move over the Rockies today and onto the plains tonight flattening out the ridge as it moves east Saturday. Temperatures tonight should fall into the low to mid 70s with a few 60s before warming into the 90s Saturday. A couple degrees cooler Saturday night.
low pressure will consolidate by Sunday morning over Illinois with a weak warm front extending to the east across Southern Lower Michigan. likely pops are now in the forecast for a sizable portion of the forecast area as low pressure moves east across Northern Indiana and Ohio. Low pressure will be pulling away from the cwa Sunday night.