Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper levels today have a weak ridge extending up from the Gulf of Mexico across E TX/LA to the Great Lakes as a trough moves ashore the OR/CA coast. This trough will rotate inland moving into NV this afternoon and into CO tonight.
1117 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper levels today have a weak ridge extending up from the Gulf of Mexico across E TX/LA to the Great Lakes as a trough moves ashore the OR/CA coast. This trough will rotate inland moving into NV this afternoon and into CO tonight.
While NE 511 continues to show some partially covered roadways and wet pavement, after talking with the local dispatch, this is very limited and light drizzle/freezing drizzle has ended. Continue to expect potential redevelopment of some light freezing rain or drizzle across this area this evening and overnight, with little to no additional precipitation expected across this area through the afternoon hours. Key Messages: * Light drizzle/freezing drizzle remains a possibility this morning which could leave a light glaze on surfaces.
102 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 Dry high pressure resides over the eastern United States today through Thursday.
High temperatures this afternoon will reach up into the 70s and lower 80s over inland areas with cooler temperatures occurring for areas along the coast, with high temps in the upper 60s. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 40s over southeast Georgia and into the lower to mid 50s over northeast Florida, with min temps along the coastline ranging between the mid 50s and lower 60s.
129 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 Dry weather is expected through Thursday under high pressure.
257 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 Key Messages: * A light glaze of ice is possible with some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle overnight, with a few hundredths of an inch of total ice accumulation possible.
As for the southwest counties, the warm front is moving through and while most of the rain is evaporating in that dry layer, some very light rain is making it to the surface.
The key points from the early AM AFD remain similar and there's still generally speaking two camps, the higher QPF and snow NCEP guidance (including some but not all CAMs) and the lower QPF and snow foreign guidance. Part of that includes daylight hours and temperatures starting a few to several degrees above freezing, so it's uncertain how long heavier snow rates will take after onset to result in pavement accumulations and worsening impacts.
Cooler than normal temperatures through the seven day forecast period. Synoptic Pattern and Current Conditions: Current water vapor imagery continue to show the area remaining in a southwest flow pattern as an upper level trough moves through Nevada. Given the low level moisture and weak lift, there have been pockets of drizzle.
1136 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 (Today through Thursday) Mid level ridging will dominate through the rest of the work week, helping to keep Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley warm and generally rain-free for the next couple of days. The pressure gradient will remain moderate to strong between high pressure to our east and lower pressure across the Southern Plains, along with the diurnally fluctuating thermal trough over the Mexican Plateau. Even with some models picking up on some marine fog in the nearshore waters in the short term, satellite products are showing that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are increasing to the lower 70s, which will help hinder fog formation that could potentially impact the immediate coast.
(Tonight) Light/occasionally moderate showers continue to spread eastward across the western/central portions of the mid TN Valley this Wed afternoon, aided by a weak upper disturbance embedded within a weak upper ridge axis over the central Gulf region. However, high pressure layered from the OH Valley into the mid/southern Atlantic states may allow for some continued weak influx of moisture into the area and coupled with the passing weak upper disturbance may translate into a few additional showers across parts of the area thru the overnight hrs.
As this trough moves into the Rockies tonight, we'll see increasing low level moisture transport build toward the OK state line bringing increasing chances for drizzle and rain showers to Kansas as the column saturates. A cold front will usher in drier air across the area on Thursday afternoon bringing an end to any lingering light precipitation. This will result in seasonably mild temperatures on Fri with highs in the lower 50 for most areas. A dry post-frontal regime is anticipated at the start of the period as high pressure noses into the Central Plains.
941 AM PST Wed Mar 8 2023 It will remain cooler today with Thursday much warmer but still a few degrees below average.
The associated cold front will move through during the evening and should bring a rapid end to the precipitation.
TFJ Flow aloft today will turn to the SW as a Pacific Coast upper trough deepens.
Weak mid level support west of a mid level ridge (to our east) will result in a chance of light rain or sprinkles today, with the best chance along and west of the MS River where slightly deeper moisture will exist. There will be better support during this time frame as low pressure develops and tracks across Missouri and Illinois, in response to an upper level low over the Upper Midwest that will move east.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) A front is stalled across from the Big Bend to the north towards the TX/NM border with a shield of low clouds to demarcate the extent of the cooler, more moist air behind it. Shower and storm chances stay elevated across the eastern Permian Basin and down towards the lower Trans Pecos.
(This afternoon through Thursday) A broad ridge axis is centered from the Great Lakes south into the Gulf of Mexico resulting in a deep layer of westerly flow from 850mb and above. At the surface, high pressure extending southeast into the Mid-Atlantic region is producing easterly surface flow across Central Alabama. The developing low will reinforce a stalled frontal boundary to our south which will become oriented as a psuedo-warm front northwest to southeast across our southwest counties.
Today and tomorrow will feature similar weather with highs in the lower 90s and breezy southeasterly winds. As mentioned in the previous discussion, with sea surface temperatures warming up to the low 70s, fog along the barrier island is possible again starting this evening and continuing through tomorrow morning.
Lows should range in the teens north to the lower to middle 20s south and upper 20s at Manitowoc.
The highest coverage is expected to be in the Rolling Plains and the southeast Texas Panhandle as elevated instability spreads north this afternoon and tonight. Areas of reduced visibility will be possible early tomorrow morning and persisting trough mid-morning.
Deterministic global models and CAM guidance agree that any rain in the morning will likely become virga as the low level atmosphere is dry and will need time to saturate.
500 mb ridge overhead will have a weak disturbance filter through it ahead of the main disturbance that will bring chances from rain tomorrow evening into the overnight.
These showers are associated with a weak upper disturbance embedded within a weak upper ridge axis over the central Gulf region. Clouds will also increase out of the west thru the day, as highs climb mainly into the lower/mid 60s for most spots.
(This evening through Thursday) A cold front has made it south to the I-10 corridor early this afternoon. Temperatures are warmer along the I-10 corridor, currently in the 60s, and mainly in the 50s across the southern Concho Valley and Heartland areas. Otherwise, a warm front currently along a line from just north of Eagle Pass to just north of San Marcos can be seen moving north, and will reach the southern Concho Valley by early Thursday morning. Expect the front to continue moving northward through the rest of the day tomorrow, resulting in warmer temperatures area- wide, and winds turning to the southeast.
The backdoor cold front has now made its way into southwest Florida.
A cold front stretches west-northwest from the northern Bahamas to near Mobile, AL. Light breezes today will freshen tonight as a backdoor cold front moves westward through the coastal waters.
909 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 Showers associated with the warm front are just to the west of the CWA this morning as the line is steadily pushing southeast. Temperatures are sitting around 50 degrees with increasing cloudiness ahead of the warm front. Looking at model soundings from I-40 and north, the low levels will struggle to moisten today with better moisture being confined to the southwest part of the CWA. That low will lift northeastward into the Midwest dragging a cold front through Middle Tennessee Thursday night with more showers and potential an isolated rumble of thunder.
The first weather maker is on our doorstep, with a back door cold front nearing South Florida, where scattered showers are just offshore and northeast winds along the coast are gusting over 20 knots. After tonight's back door cold front, with the arrival delayed until after midnight, northeast to east winds will increase to near 20 knots and dewpoints will drop into the lower to mid 60s.
344 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 Mostly sunny skies continue under the influence of a strong high pressure system with barometric pressure now sitting at 1033 mb here at DTX. SE MI will remain under the influence of high pressure through Thursday which continue to bring dry weather through the end of day tomorrow. Overnight lows drop down into the 20s before making a run again into the lower 40s by tomorrow afternoon. The Tri-Cities and Thumb will remain cooler, under the influence of northeast flow. The upper-level trough will start to take on a negative tilt across the western portions of the Midwest.
Thursday, a bit of relief from the high temperatures for some of us as we get some climate sites back near normal.
1109 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 Showers associated with the warm front are just to the west of the CWA this morning as the line is steadily pushing southeast. Temperatures are sitting around 50 degrees with increasing cloudiness ahead of the warm front. Looking at model soundings from I-40 and north, the low levels will struggle to moisten today with better moisture being confined to the southwest part of the CWA. That low will lift northeastward into the Midwest dragging a cold front through Middle Tennessee Thursday night with more showers and potential an isolated rumble of thunder.
214 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 Dry high pressure resides over the eastern United States today through Thursday.
1242 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 High pressure ridging south into the Ohio Valley will provide mostly dry conditions today.
1046 AM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 High pressure ridging south into the Ohio Valley will provide mostly dry conditions today.
High pressure will push east to the Carolina coast and winds will become more E/NE to E.
High pressure was located over eastern Lake Superior and Upper Michigan early this afternoon with low pressure in the Upper Minnesota River valley. A trough will move out of the Rockies late tonight with surface cyclogenesis occurring over the Panhandle region Thursday morning. This low will then move into the Lower Ohio Valley by Thursday evening. Snow showers are expected along an inverted trough arcing northwestward from the low to an upper low in the Upper Mississippi Valley.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Key Messages: -Accumulating snowfall likely tomorrow along and north of Interstate 80 with the highest amounts east of Interstate 35 and between the Interstate 80 and Highway 20 corridors.
At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will keep conditions dry across the entire area this evening. The ridge will get pushed back northward overnight as a low pressure system slides off the southern Rockies to western Kansas. The low then looks to track eastward to southern Missouri during the day Thursday, with an inverted trough extending from it to southern North Dakota.
A deepening trough with a closed low tracking across the area will provide strong large- scale forcing. A note of caution: The GFS/NAMNST insist on changing the rain in our south rather quickly on Thursday but initially temperatures will be well above freezing.
631 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 Dry high pressure resides over the eastern United States today through Thursday.
5" of accumulations are expected with the highest values being concentrated along the MO/IA border. This flow is enhanced by a deepening upper level trough progressing along the US/CAN border.
East of this boundary, dewpoints are in the mid 20s to lower 30s, whereas west of it dewpoints are in the lower 40s.
This lowers confidence in the totals NBM in particular are giving us.
929 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 Strong high pressure reaching from central Canada almost to the Bahamas is providing us with quiet weather tonight with dry air in the low levels.
Snow showers will be possible as a result, impacting the Highway 93 corridor from Salmon to Lost Trail Pass, as well as higher elevation valleys and passes in Idaho and Clearwater counties.
522 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) A front is stalled across from the Big Bend to the north towards the TX/NM border with a shield of low clouds to demarcate the extent of the cooler, more moist air behind it. Shower and storm chances stay elevated across the eastern Permian Basin and down towards the lower Trans Pecos.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Mid-level ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico will keep conditions very warm and benign through Thursday. A mid-level low moves eastward into the Midwest Thursday night, pushing a weak cold front into Central Texas, weakening and halting before reaching the CWA.
938 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 RAOBs around the region show very dry air in the low levels. Deterministic global models and CAM guidance agree that any rain in the morning will likely become virga as the low level atmosphere is dry and will need time to saturate.
559 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) Mid-level ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico will keep conditions very warm and benign through Thursday. A mid-level low moves eastward into the Midwest Thursday night, pushing a weak cold front into Central Texas, weakening and halting before reaching the CWA.
514 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 (Tonight) Light/occasionally moderate showers continue to spread eastward across the western/central portions of the mid TN Valley this Wed afternoon, aided by a weak upper disturbance embedded within a weak upper ridge axis over the central Gulf region. However, high pressure layered from the OH Valley into the mid/southern Atlantic states may allow for some continued weak influx of moisture into the area and coupled with the passing weak upper disturbance may translate into a few additional showers across parts of the area thru the overnight hrs.
145 PM PST Wed Mar 8 2023 High pressure will build in on Thursday, bringing warmer temperatures on Thursday.
921 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 Dry weather will prevail through Thursday with high pressure generally in control.
706 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 Dry weather is expected through Thursday under high pressure.
1100 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2023 Dry weather is expected through Thursday under high pressure.
-A brief period of freezing drizzle is possible this evening before the stronger lift and moderate snow moves in from around midnight onward. Freezing drizzle is ongoing across all of southwest into central and portions of north central Nebraska.
200 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023 Weak low pressure will develop across the area today, driven by an upper low moving across the Upper Midwest.
We should be a little warmer tomorrow with highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s.
Winds will remain light overnight, but will increase and become breezy by Thursday afternoon ahead of a deep Pacific low pressure system.
Over the past few hours, a back door cold front moved into the forecast area and is currently making its way across the Keys. The front is on the doorstep of the Lower Keys and is crossing Marathon now. Based on the higher moisture content behind the front, the noted of outflow boundaries, and the increased flow, have decided to keep 50% PoPs for the night. Breezes are beginning to freshen and shift to the northeast to east as a backdoor cold front moves westward through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
However still feel amounts may reach the low end of our current range in graphical messaging with sufficient rates to accumulate, so will leave current headlines stand for the time being until a full examination of guidance and neighboring collaboration. /Tonight through Wednesday/ Key Messages: -Accumulating snowfall likely tomorrow along and north of Interstate 80 with the highest amounts east of Interstate 35 and between the Interstate 80 and Highway 20 corridors.
1059 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) A front is stalled across from the Big Bend to the north towards the TX/NM border with a shield of low clouds to demarcate the extent of the cooler, more moist air behind it. Shower and storm chances stay elevated across the eastern Permian Basin and down towards the lower Trans Pecos.
1212 AM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 Dry weather is expected through Thursday under high pressure.
As this trough moves into the Rockies tonight, we'll see increasing low level moisture transport build toward the OK state line bringing increasing chances for drizzle and rain showers to Kansas as the column saturates. A cold front will usher in drier air across the area on Thursday afternoon bringing an end to any lingering light precipitation. This will result in seasonably mild temperatures on Fri with highs in the lower 50 for most areas. A dry post-frontal regime is anticipated at the start of the period as high pressure noses into the Central Plains. Meanwhile, cooler air working south has also brought some fog to most of the TAF sites.
1050 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) Mid-level ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico will keep conditions very warm and benign through Thursday. A mid-level low moves eastward into the Midwest Thursday night, pushing a weak cold front into Central Texas, weakening and halting before reaching the CWA.
343 AM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 High pressure will maintain dry weather today.
933 PM PST Wed Mar 8 2023 High pressure will build in on Thursday, bringing warmer temperatures on Thursday.
Friday afternoon's temperatures will warm into the lower 50s in central Kansas to lower 60s in the extreme southwest.
Otherwise, warmer and localized breezy conditions will continue.
552 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023 (Today through Friday) At 2 AM CST, a cold front extends along a Del Rio to Rocksprings to Fredericksburg to Kyle to Giddings line. Areal coverage gradually wanes as it shifts to the west on Friday as weak upper level ridging builds over our area.
Cooler than normal temperatures through the seven day forecast period. This will limit cooling somewhat despite cold high pressure and a wind shift out of the north.
A better feed of moisture from the Gulf and more robust isentropic lift ahead of the low sets up late this afternoon and evening. Surface temperatures around freezing will result in a wet heavy snow, once again.
West of this boundary, winds are more northerly, and temperatures are much cooler.
This has allowed a bit more cooling and some areas are down in the low 50s.
High pressure across the Atlantic seaboard will retreat over the Atlantic waters Friday as an area of low pressure and its accompanying cold front moves east/ southeastward.
540 AM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 High pressure will maintain dry weather today. Rain and snow return late tonight and Friday with crossing low pressure. All precipitation will change to snow Friday evening as the low begins to exit the region. Some freezing rain is also possible along the ridges in cold SE upslope flow.
High clouds will spread across our region this afternoon heralding a warm front moving up from the southwest.
443 AM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 Today will be mostly cloudy with seasonable temperatures with highs in the lower to middle 40s. Cooler air then filters in for the weekend. Backed easterly flow with slight cold air advection and cloud cover to likely keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Continued low chance PoPs with some indication of greater forcing north and best moisture confined to Tennessee Valley with southern stream cyclone to allow a north/south split in higher precipitation over CWA.
513 AM MST Thu Mar 9 2023 Water vapor imagery showing upper trof axis over north central Colorado now and will rapidly lift out into the northern high plains by later this morning. Radar and web cams showing light snow over the higher northern mountains and east slopes with even a few bands of light snow spilling out over the urban corridor and northeast plains. The snow and low clouds across the plains will quickly come to an end from west to east early this morning, replaced by strong westerly winds behind the trof. Could see gusts up to 60 mph over the high mountain passes.
Probabilities for accumulating snow remain highest along and south of I-94, with even these areas seeing a downtick in the high end probability.
Perhaps our better rainfall chances will be in the overnight hours as a weak cold front pushes precip from west to east across the area. Friday looks to be a few degrees cooler than normal with breezy northwest winds in place. (Friday Night through next Thursday) High pressure and northerly winds will allow temperatures to flirt with freezing Friday night.
621 AM EST Thu Mar 9 2023 Low pressure will continue to move away east of the Maritimes today and Friday as high pressure builds in from the west.
Water vapor imagery this morning clearly reveals a cold trough off the Oregon coast. The trough is interacting with a subtropical moisture stream, and guiding in this atmospheric river moisture. A 115 kt mid level jet streak is moving in south of the trough and is enhancing a southerly coastal barrier jet.
As far as temperatures, not expecting to see any sun, so will again go cooler than NBM for this afternoons MaxT using the CONSShort. By tonight, the cold front should be well through our area with high surface pressure building over the Central Plains and light north winds advecting a colder air mass into our area. Although expecting temperatures tonight to drop to or just below freezing across northern and western Oklahoma, additional radiational cooling will be kept at a minimal due to dense overnight cloudcover.
Ahead of the snow, freezing fog and patchy freezing drizzle has likely left a light glaze of ice accretion. The eastern upslope ridge line of the Coteau will see the most at 4 to 7 inches.
249 AM MST Thu Mar 9 2023 Water vapor imagery showing upper trof axis over north central Colorado now and will rapidly lift out into the northern high plains by later this morning. Radar and web cams showing light snow over the higher northern mountains and east slopes with even a few bands of light snow spilling out over the urban corridor and northeast plains. The snow and low clouds across the plains will quickly come to an end from west to east early this morning, replaced by strong westerly winds behind the trof. Could see gusts up to 60 mph over the high mountain passes.
522 AM PST Thu Mar 9 2023 Much warmer today with high clouds decreasing in the afternoon.
Will have near zonal flow across the region today with high pressure extending up from Mexico. After very chilly temps in the 40s yesterday expecting much warmer conditions with temperatures returning to the 70s for most of the area.