Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Through tonight ) Ridge of high pressure. (Tomorrow through Wednesday) The western half of the ridge remains over the region Thursday with the 850-mb thermal axis oriented from Southwest Oklahoma to Northeast Oklahoma.
135 PM PDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Slightly cooler today, with noticeable warming developing tomorrow, and very hot conditions likely across inland areas by this weekend. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO A trough of low pressure, centered over the West Coast today, will move through the Intermountain West through Thursday. Night and morning low clouds will continue across the coast and valleys the next several days, becoming more confined to the immediate coast this weekend as high pressure strengthens. A substantial pattern change is in store for the western United States over the coming days and the upcoming Fourth of July holiday as strong and persistent ridging takes hold. Noticeable warming sets in tomorrow across inland areas, with the coast a few degrees warmer than today.
A filling upper low over the Northern Rockies and another over the Canadian Prairie Provinces will influence our weather in the short term. Latest surface analysis shows weak high pressure over much of the forecast area. With the steep lapse rates and approaching trough from Canada, non-supercell tornados may be possible. Upper level ridging building over the area from the west this afternoon, continues this evening. Otherwise an isolated storm can't be ruled out along/ahead of the cold front that pushes south through the forecast area later tonight, but the threat for severe weather should be diminishing by then.
Rinse and repeat regarding the seemingly concreted upper lvl ridge in place across the Southern Plains/far western Mid-South region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a warm front will be lifting from southwest to northeast across the CWA. A more moist airmass will be present behind the warm front with higher dewpoint temperature values that will lead to it feeling absolutely oppressive outside. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: The warm front will complete its progression through the Natural State by Wednesday night. Thursday at the upper lvls will feel the brunt of the ridge as it slides eastward centered over the Mid-South region of the CONUS.
A mid-level trough is over the region with the axis across north central NY this afternoon. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s this afternoon.
As the ridge axis slides eastward, we are finally looking at the conclusion of WSW flow for at least a few days. Until a deeper southerly flow returns, rain chances stay on the lower side.
(Through Thursday) Deep layer ridge will continue to build eastward on Thursday, becoming centered over the Arklatex by the afternoon. This will place the forecast area under deep, dry northerly flow on the eastern side of the ridge.
The showers are ahead of a warm front which extends across northeast Arkansas and into north Mississippi. An isolated shower will be possible this afternoon ahead of the warm front but mainly dry weather is expected. With moisture increasing behind the warm front Heat Index values are expected to exceed 105 over western and southwest sections of the Mid-South. ARS A warm front will bring a return of humid air along with very hot temperatures for the remainder of this week into the upcoming weekend.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) The gradual relief from the oppressive heat we've been seeing continues as the center of the upper ridge shifts from east Texas into the Mississippi Valley. The only storm chances in the short term are Thursday afternoon across the higher terrain of the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent high plains of southeastern New Mexico.
1108 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the central Plains, with a trough just east of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows flattening ridge shifting east of the region, with large scale trough over the west coast and Great Basin region. Southwesterly flow extends eastward into the high plains now. An active weather pattern will continue through the latter part of the week as the trough to the west slowly moves east through the Plains.
As a low pressure center slowly moves to the east over central Idaho, winds will increase today along the I-84 corridor between the Treasure and Magic Valleys with northwest gusts up to 25 mph.
249 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 High pressure will pass across the region tonight and Thursday bringing dry weather. For the end of the week and into the weekend, rain chances return with low pressure deepening to our west. High pressure over the region will keep us dry through Thursday. An upper level ridge of high pressure over Louisiana will move east along the Gulf Coast. The outer rings of this ridge will be draped over the region through the weekend.
540 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 High pressure will pass across the region tonight and Thursday bringing dry weather. For the end of the week and into the weekend, rain chances return with low pressure deepening to our west. High pressure will control our weather tonight into Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 50 degrees in the mountains to the lower 60s in the piedmont. Previous discussion: High pressure over the region will keep us dry through Thursday. An upper level ridge of high pressure over Louisiana will move east along the Gulf Coast. The outer rings of this ridge will be draped over the region through the weekend.
721 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 (Through Thursday) Deep layer ridge will continue to build eastward on Thursday, becoming centered over the Arklatex by the afternoon. This will place the forecast area under deep, dry northerly flow on the eastern side of the ridge.
621 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 A warm front will continue to move east across the region tonight. Behind the warm front, hot and very humid air will remain over the Mid-South for the next few days. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across eastern sections of the region on Thursday as the warm front finally moves east of the Mid-South.
Warmer and drier weather is expected for the remainder of the week, with temperatures likely reaching 90 for most low elevation areas. A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening for locations extending from the Big Belt/Bridger Mountains east and northeastward into Fergus County. - RCG /ISSUED 557 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023/ Widespread showers and thunderstorms have developed across North Central and Southwestern Montana as broad upper level troughing lingers across the area. Heading into tomorrow and through the end of the week, upper level ridging will begin to build into the Northwestern US, which will bring an end to the daily showers and thunderstorms that we've seen the past few days, along with a notable increase in temperatures.
941 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 The descent from afternoon maxT's is well underway across the Four State following another warm, and ridge influenced Wednesday. Quiet conditions will prevail overnight as the influence of the ridge sits overhead.
651 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Dry weather with moderating temperature is expected through Thursday under the influence of high pressure. Increasing subsidence as high pressure builds in from the east will continue to erode area stratocu and ridge line stratus today as pressure heights begin to rise aloft.
High pressure continues to shift eastward into the Gulf States as a weak trough digs into much of the intermountain west. As high pressure builds through the region across Nevada, California and Arizona this weekend, most of the moisture will be shunted back out of the area. Hurricane Adrian earned the first name of the season even as another area south of Mexico shows favorable progress toward becoming the second tropical cyclone of '23. Min RH values will be in the 5-10 percent range in the lower elevations and between 10-18 percent in the mountains through the weekend.
Ahead of the cold front, surface-based instability will increase while the steep mid-level lapse rates remain in place. Smoke models indicate the near-surface smoke will push out of the area from west to east in association with the weak cold front on Thursday.
Pressure gradient across the area expected to be maintained overnight with low pressure centered over Kansas, so surface wind will not settle, keeping overnight temps well above seasonal averages most places. (Tomorrow through Wednesday) The western half of the ridge remains over the region Thursday with the 850-mb thermal axis oriented from Southwest Oklahoma to Northeast Oklahoma.
600 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 (Through tonight ) Ridge of high pressure. (Tomorrow through Wednesday) The western half of the ridge remains over the region Thursday with the 850-mb thermal axis oriented from Southwest Oklahoma to Northeast Oklahoma.
628 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Continued strong ridging/subsidence aloft will make convection quite difficult to come by and mainly confined to the east where it can occur through Thursday. With the ridging, the main story will continue to be the heat. /GG/ A strong upper level high pressure system will continue to gradually make its way eastward along the Gulf Coast.
As strong ridging continues to hold sway, no showers are expected during the overnight, but the soupy low level airmass will keep heat index readings in the 90s at some locations well into the overnight. /DL/ Continued strong ridging/subsidence aloft will make convection quite difficult to come by and mainly confined to the east where it can occur through Thursday. With the ridging, the main story will continue to be the heat. /GG/ A strong upper level high pressure system will continue to gradually make its way eastward along the Gulf Coast.
An upper-level trough will continue moving through the region through Thursday. Drier conditions along with warming temperatures under a building high pressure dome are expected starting tomorrow. The upper level trough axis will be east of the forecast area tomorrow. Warm and dry conditions are in store heading into the holiday weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure moves overhead.
Otherwise, current conditions along the island chain reveal temperatures near the mid 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Winds across the Middle and Lower Keys and surrounding waters are light from the northwest with southwest winds east of the Channel 5 Bridge.
954 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 High pressure continues to build in through the weekend, with increasingly hot conditions.
655 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Dry weather with moderating temperature is expected through Thursday under the influence of high pressure. Increasing subsidence as high pressure builds in from the east will continue to erode area stratocu and ridge line stratus today as pressure heights begin to rise aloft.
729 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 High pressure will pass across the region tonight and Thursday bringing dry weather. For the end of the week and into the weekend, rain chances return with low pressure deepening to our west. High pressure will control our weather tonight into Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 50 degrees in the mountains to the lower 60s in the piedmont. Previous discussion: High pressure over the region will keep us dry through Thursday. An upper level ridge of high pressure over Louisiana will move east along the Gulf Coast. The outer rings of this ridge will be draped over the region through the weekend.
A warm front will usher in more humid air across the region. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across eastern sections of the region on Thursday as the warm front finally moves east of the Mid-South.
The upper low/weakening trough associated with the continued mountain thunderstorm chances over the last several days, will meander southeast through tonight as ridging from the eastern Pacific begins to build into NorCal.
503 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 The latest water vapor images and 500-mb height analysis show an upper low over southwestern MT/northeastern ID with a trough in the West and flat ridge across the central CONUS.
709 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 (Rest of today through Thursday) Rinse and repeat conditions today as a deep-layered area of high pressure continues to build over the Gulf of Mexico, slowly encroaching into the Florida peninsula. Convective initiation will most likely occur along the sea breeze convergence front once the breeze comes in, then shifting inland and towards the Lake Okeechobee area, where there will be the highest chances for storms to develop. Another couple of days of hot heat await South Florida through the short term, with high temperatures reaching the low-mid 90s and heat indices in the lower 100s. Warm temperatures are also likely overnight, with the lows in the upper 70s along coastal areas and low 70s over the interior.
613 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) The gradual relief from the oppressive heat we've been seeing continues as the center of the upper ridge shifts from east Texas into the Mississippi Valley. The only storm chances in the short term are Thursday afternoon across the higher terrain of the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent high plains of southeastern New Mexico.
Temperatures should be a bit cooler along the Nature Coast with lower 70s, but middle to upper 70s are expected south of I-4 tonight. As the ridge axis slides eastward, we are finally looking at the conclusion of WSW flow for at least a few days. Until a deeper southerly flow returns, rain chances stay on the lower side.
SPC DY2 outlook is essentially unchanged with the greatest chance for severe existing near the theta-e axis/warm front.
1054 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 High pressure will pass across the region tonight and Thursday bringing dry weather. For the end of the week and into the weekend, rain chances return with low pressure deepening to our west. High pressure will control our weather tonight into Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 50 degrees in the mountains to the lower 60s in the piedmont. Previous discussion: High pressure over the region will keep us dry through Thursday. An upper level ridge of high pressure over Louisiana will move east along the Gulf Coast. The outer rings of this ridge will be draped over the region through the weekend.
A mid-level trough is over the region with the axis across northeastern NY early this evening.
817 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Weak high pressure will extend into the Carolinas from the north through the remainder of the work week. Downstream of an anomalous ridge anchored over the southern Plains, wnwly flow continues over central NC. As upper level ridge moves over the region, high pressure at the surface will dominate Thursday. Thursday afternoon and evening the edge of the ridge will be moving across the Ohio valley and into the NW Piedmont by late Thursday night.
742 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 High pressure continues to build in through the weekend, with increasingly hot conditions.
/Issued 159 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023/ /Thursday night through Wednesday/ The sprawling upper level ridge which has sorely afflicted the Southern Plains for the past several days will finally shift eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley by Thursday, providing some modest temperature relief to our region.
937 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Dry weather with moderating temperature is expected through Thursday under the influence of high pressure.
Discussion: At 2 AM, a warm front was draped across northern Missouri then it turns southeastward across far eastern Missouri and into the lower Mississippi Valley. Low confidence placement of QPF continues into the weekend, in an otherwise active pattern, where the zonal flow transitions to a temporarily cut off mid level low pressure.
- Periodic unsettled weather expected this weekend There is high confidence that anti-cyclonic flow overtop a dome of high pressure, across the Gulf states, combined with a warm, very humid and unstable airmass will result periodic thunderstorms with potential for severe weather along with heavy rain and at least localized flooding this weekend.
At 1 PM CDT, skies are mostly sunny and temperatures have warmed into the 70s and at some locations up into the low 80s. The light northwesterly boundary layer winds during the short term forecast period should serve as a neutral air advection wind, holding the warmer air to the west at bay, while keeping the much cooler Canada- sourced air to the northeast from back-dooring into the CWA. The northern ridge will extend from North Dakota well into Canada and a southern trough will extend across the central plains, generally leaving our area in between. Overall, models agree on this pattern, although the cluster analysis does suggest the GFS is bit deeper with the trough as compared to the European counterparts.
Warmer and drier weather is expected for the remainder of the week, with temperatures likely reaching 90 for most low elevation areas. /ISSUED 152 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023/ Widespread showers and thunderstorms have developed across North Central and Southwestern Montana as broad upper level troughing lingers across the area. Heading into tomorrow and through the end of the week, upper level ridging will begin to build into the Northwestern US, which will bring an end to the daily showers and thunderstorms that we've seen the past few days, along with a notable increase in temperatures.
While dew points will mix out somewhat, they should remain in the lower 60s which will be high enough to produce surface-based instability by mid afternoon.
The higher moisture values may take a few degrees off the high temp potential however the resultant heat index values will continue to be dangerously hot and heat headlines have been adjusted accordingly.
211 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure has set up over the Desert Southwest and the southern and central Plains. A ridge is developing to the north running through the the Intermountain west and into western Montana. Today into tonight: Developing ridge will block off Pacific Moisture and reduce thunderstorms chances for our area today and should leave partly cloudy to clear skies and warming conditions.
Upper low well defined over the Manitoba Interlake region with a cluster of t-storms with it northwest of Winnipeg. But otherwise as upper low moves to near Kenora by late today, do expect a scattering of thunderstorms to occur over northwestern MN and far northeastern ND. Friday is looking dry and highs in the low 80s.
930 PM PDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Slightly cooler today, with noticeable warming developing tomorrow, and very hot conditions likely across inland areas by this weekend. A trough of low pressure, centered over the West Coast today, will move through the Intermountain West through Thursday. Night and morning low clouds will continue across the coast and valleys the next several days, becoming more confined to the immediate coast this weekend as high pressure strengthens. A substantial pattern change is in store for the western United States over the coming days and the upcoming Fourth of July holiday as strong and persistent ridging takes hold. Noticeable warming sets in tomorrow across inland areas, with the coast a few degrees warmer than today.
As upper ridging centered over the Arklatex builds farther eastward, temperatures will respond accordingly. The position of the upper ridge centered to our west continues to keep the forecast area within northwest to northerly flow aloft today and Friday, setting the stage for ongoing MCS possibilities.
(Today and tonight) Upper level high shifts east a little farther east today and continues the slow downward trend in afternoon temperatures. May continue to flirt with Heat Advisory criteria, but given that its marginal and almost 10 degrees cooler than what we were looking at last week, will not issue any additional heat products for today.
Rain chances increase along with slightly cooler temperatures this weekend. Even warmer temps aloft will continue to advect in over the next 24 hours as the area remains on the northern periphery of the high. A warm front was in the process of moving through the area with gusty southwest winds behind it along with an increase in low level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s. These dewpoints along with temps already in the lower 90s have cause heat index values to reach 100 degrees in some locations. On Thursday, the upper high will move slightly east. Warmer air aloft along with mostly sunny skies will create a hot day with models consistently showing highs reaching 100 with some low 100s likely in the severe drought areas.
(Today through Friday night) Today looks cooler than the previous two days as 850mb temps will be 3-7 degrees Celsius cooler and the sunshine will likely have to filter through some mid to upper-level clouds. Although there will be some southerly winds trying to advect some better low- level moisture content, the low-levels will remain very dry leading to a weakly unstable environment. Dew points should at least be in the 50s with some models suggesting the low-60s.
308 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Weak high pressure will extend into the Carolinas from the north through the remainder of the work week. Downstream of an anomalous ridge anchored over the southern Plains, wnwly flow continues over central NC. As upper level ridge moves over the region, high pressure at the surface will dominate Thursday. Thursday afternoon and evening the edge of the ridge will be moving across the Ohio valley and into the NW Piedmont by late Thursday night.
25 (Tonight through Friday night) Hot weather will continue through the short term as the strong mid/ upper ridge remains the focus through the short term. Closer to the surface, broad persistent high pressure centered over the north and central Gulf will help keep a light to moderate S/SW flow in place.
A broad trough, stretching from Montana southwest through southern California, will continue to edge eastward tonight into weekend as riding works in from the west. Shear is on the weaker side today (0-6km Bulk Shear of 15-25 kts) but precipitable water values remain on the high side (115-120 percent of normal), so any thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. JW Ridging will build in Friday, before giving way to westerly flow over the weekend, and bringing drier air to the region.
(Today through Friday) The center of the Subtropical Ridge lingers over Louisiana today and Friday while the western edge over Texas erodes somewhat especially on Friday as an upper level trough moves over the Central Rockies into the High Plains. There remains strong subsidence underneath our portion of Ridge along with a drier than normal airmass to keep POPs out of the forecast.
321 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Interesting set up today with a high pressure dome aloft just to our southwest. Friday will be rather similar in set up with the ridge still in place aloft and another "ridge runner" rolling through bringing possible convection to eastern portions of the CWA.
157 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Satellite imagery shows upper level ridge building slowly from the west, and an elongated trof extending from southeast MT to southern NV. Drier air associated with aforementioned ridge will confine today's convection to our mountains/foothills and far southeast MT. leading to a warmer and drier day across the region. JKL Zonal flow looks to persist through the weekend as an upper low dominates over the far SW CONUS and helps to sandwich the flow over the state.
To the north of this front, increased low-level moisture and cooler mid-level temperatures have led to a west/east axis of instability. North of the boundary towards the Nebraska border will be a bit cooler, only seeing highs in the lower 90s. Given the similar synoptic setup, will again have to watch the High Plains for developing thunderstorms late afternoon and evening. By Friday night, the upper trough to our west will push east, finally shoving the boundary fully through our area.
Have therefore gone with the higher end of guidance for dewpoints today, with the expectation that the muggier airmass will hold on once again near and east of I-35, though likely not quite as oppressive as today.