Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A broad ridge aloft will continue to be over the Desert Southwest on Wednesday. This ridge will keep subsident and dry flow over our forecast area. The only difference from today will be a weak surface boundary/cold front that moves through in the morning hours. This boundary will not do much other than make the high temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than today.
This shift in the flow will usher drier air back in and by for Wednesday leaving the only focus for isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain of the eastern San Juans. Before the moisture is flushed out some of it will settle into the PBL tonight and the higher dewpoints and some cloud cover will lead to milder temperatures.
Much drier air with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s north thanks a dry airmass nosing south around a Canadian high pressure.
322 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure in the Tennessee Valley this morning will move east and settle over the Appalachians tonight.
141 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure and dry weather are expected tonight and Wednesday.
355 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 (Issued 354 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023) Tonight through Wednesday night: Conditions should remain quiet through midnight as a cold front sinks south of the state into central IL.
As for severe potential, the SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) clipping the Emerald Coast to account for the potential of a decaying, ridge-riding MCS (currently over OK) or its outflow boundary sagging through the Lower MS Valley late this afternoon. Forecast high temperatures are mainly in the low 90s with heat indices around 100 degrees. Overnight lows merely dip into the low 70s away from the immediate coast.
While there may be a stray shower and a few sprinkles tonight, given the dry air remaining in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, not much else is expected rainfall wise.
The fcst will be kept dry per the guidance blend and the CAM output, but will not be surprised if we pop a few showers in the afternoon, over the higher terrain or where dewpts remain pooled. These storms will move toward the area so we will have the chance of storms each period with the highest chance in the North Carolina mountains and the lowest chance in the lower Piedmont of the Carolinas.
A few spotty showers or storms will be possible across northern Illinois in the vicinity of this boundary, but the main concern will be late in the evening and overnight as the low level jet strengthens to our west resulting in more widespread strong storms developing over portions of the mid Missouri River Valley. These storms will cross the lower Illinois River Valley Wednesday morning, though likely in a decaying state as the low level jet veers and weakens and storms outrun the stronger instability to the west. Wednesday evening, the low level jet will once again strengthen resulting in yet another round of thunderstorms in the region.
158 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure moves to the Mid Atlantic coast through tonight allowing a cold front to slowly approach from Michigan and Ontario. Warm through the afternoon as a cold front slowly sags southward across the central Great Lakes into tonight. Cloud cover and increased low level moisture should keep the region warmer tonight with lows in the 60's.
Baggy mid level trough over the Southeast US will gradually lift out Wed and allow upper ridging to gradually build over FL into the weekend. In the lower levels, the Atlc ridge axis will lift northward and reposition across central FL. But the airmass will be more suppressed with the building upper ridge overhead creating mid level subsidence/warming with 500 mb temps around -5C. Daily max values will reach the mid 90s interior, holding in the lower 90s immediate coast due to the sea breeze. Atlc ridge axis is forecast to be draped across central FL and the adjacent Atlc waters this period.
Although, given the development of upper-level ridging, most of the region will be fairly capped tomorrow. Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Temperatures were in the upper 70s to the lower 80s across the region. This nice weather is thanks to a large area of high pressure currently over the Appalachians and Tennessee Valley. An upper-level trough will move into the region on Wednesday, bringing increased chances for showers and storms. A surface cold front will likely stall over the southern Great Lakes region.
300 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure will maintain dry weather through most of the area tonight as it moves east of the region. High pressure, centered across the Ohio Valley region, is expected to move east of the region tonight. A cold front is progged to drop slowly southward, approaching northern Ohio and NW PA late tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly north of PIT, as diurnal instability builds through the day and the trough approaches toward evening.
(This evening through Wednesday) Hot and dry conditions will persist across the area through Wednesday as upper level high pressure dominates.
146 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023 A modest low pressure system is moving along the US/Canadian border in northern Montana today. The low pressure circulation has been readily visible on satellite imagery through the day today. This low has led to cloud cover and showers in northwest Montana.
While mid level heights will be building on Wednesday as the upper trough moves out to the northeast, 12z guidance is now indicating a remnant MCV over far eastern Oklahoma moving southeast toward the region on Wednesday.
301 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure centered over the southern Appalachians will extend across our region through Wednesday and then shift offshore Wednesday night. A Bermuda high pressure system will then develop and extend into the area, setting up a hot and humid regime for late in the week. Low-level thicknesses will max out in the 1420 to 1430 range supportive of daytime highs in the lower to mid 90s. Overnight lows will be warmer in the lower 70s as well.
1226 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 KEY MESSAGES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS: * Much warmer today.
An inland trough will develop later in the week as high pressure begins to build over the Atlantic. Broad mid/upper-level troughing will remain in place across the Southeast U. Highs will be seasonable, generally peaking around 90 or in the lower 90s inland of the beaches. Lows will range from the lower 70 inland to around 80 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. In the upper levels a low pressure center and its associated trough will be well to the north of the CONUS and high pressure and its associated ridging will be located over the southwestern states. This pattern will result in nearly zonal flow over the local forecast area, with slight wobbles between broad troughing and broad ridging. At the surface a weak cold front will linger Wednesday before dissipating.
1150 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 As of around midnight, a southward sagging cold front is currently draped from the North Dakota Badlands southeastward to near Sioux Falls and back northeastward toward Green Bay, Wisconsin.
236 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure will continue to influence the region through tonight and early Wednesday.
High pressure centered across the Ohio Valley region will maintain dry weather and mostly sunny skies across the area today. The sounding has convective temperatures in the lower-mid 80s, with sct cu expected to develop this afternoon.
(Tomorrow through Tuesday) It looks like one more relatively reasonable night tonight in terms of temperature, with clear skies allowing for temperatures to fall into the lower 70s, but then the heat will be on. Model guidance shows a quickly warming atmosphere as upper level ridging noses to the northeast, with surface temperatures climbing to 95-100F.
Wave heights based off of those winds keeps conditions mostly in the 3 to 5 foot range but there could be a lull in the higher waves. Thunderstorms are currently moving across Lake Michigan along an axis of elevated instability, low level convergence, higher surface dew points ahead of the cold front, and along a low level jet pointing at central Lower Michigan.
1253 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023 For the first half of the week a ridge will keep WY hot and dry. By the end of the week into this weekend the ridge will flatten, which should drop temperatures back to near normal and bring in slight chances for thunderstorms.
Our area will remain on the northern periphery of the ridge, aka the "four corners high", which normally resides over the southwest U.
1104 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure will build over the area today bringing mostly sunny and pleasantly warm conditions with more comfortable humidity levels.
Wednesday features a cold frontal passage with more widespread rain and storm chances. A cold front will slowly sink south this evening, with the potential for the front to stall near the Indiana Toll Road tonight. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s as shower/storm chances increase around daybreak Wednesday. Rain and storms should be scattered to widespread Wednesday as the cold front continues to move through the CWA. Additional rain/storm chances are possible as an upper level low centered over the Hudson Bay pivots through Manitoba and Ontario late week into the weekend. A cold front will sink slowly south tonight, allowing for increasing but low confidence chances for showers and thunderstorms. Winds at KSBN may bounce around after 00Z Wed depending exactly where the cold front settles.
High pressure stretched from the Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest early this afternoon. A warm front stretched across northern Nebraska into central Iowa and northern Illinois.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) A strong mid-level ridge is centered over the Four Corners region this afternoon.
221 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure brings dry weather into mid week amid overnight and early morning valley fog. The rest of today will be dry, with fair weather cumulus present across the area as high pressure remains in control overhead. Clouds erode by late evening, then high pressure maintains calm and clear conditions overnight with the potential for patchy valley fog early Wednesday morning. Temperatures should range from upper 50s to low 60s in the lowlands and 50s along the mountains tonight. Wednesday is expected to be the warmest day of the work week, with highs rising into the upper 80s to low 90s in the lowlands and 70s to 80s along the mountains.
416 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 A typical summertime pattern with high pressure offshore and troughing inland will redevelop through late this week bringing hot and muggy weather. Ridging passing south of the area and strong subsidence aloft keeps a dry and mainly clear, calm forecast in place tonight. High pressure slides offshore with increasing S to SW flow through the day. High pressure remains over the eastern seaboard through midweek keeping things warm dry and muggy across ENC. The next chance at some unsettled weather will be this weekend as several weak impulses round the base of a broad upper level low in Canada.
Tonight and Wednesday Canadian high pressure brought much cooler temperatures, low humidity and partly sunny skies to the region this afternoon. A low pressure system developing over the Central Plains will track south of the forecast area on Wednesday. This low will combine with a coupled upper level jet to bring showers to at least the southern half of the forecast area Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Abundant cloud cover and showers will result in cool temperatures in the highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Synopsis: The upper air pattern will generally consist of a stable trough stretching from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes over the period.
353 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure moves to the Mid Atlantic coast through tonight allowing a cold front to slowly approach from Michigan and Ontario. A cold front slowly sags southward across the central Great Lakes into tonight. Cloud cover and increased low level moisture should keep the region warmer tonight with lows in the 60's.
Very warm weather is ahead today as return flow continues on the back (west) side of the high pressure area that was south of the Ohio River. Temperatures should be a little warmer today with somewhat of a superadiabatic lapse rate near the ground. After Wednesday, chances for showers and storms will be more limited as an upper low drifts south and amplifies into the Upper Great Lakes region. A cold front will sink slowly south tonight, allowing for increasing but low confidence chances for showers and thunderstorms. Winds at KSBN may bounce around after 00Z Wed depending exactly where the cold front settles.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) Another round of wet weather is expected to continue tonight into tomorrow before the influence of upper ridging begins. This activity will keep temperature minimums in the lower 70s with mid-to-upper 70s elsewhere.
Weak short wave ridge passes through Idaho tonight and Wednesday morning in strong west southwest flow aloft.
Temperatures were in the lower 80s in most spots, though a few locations had warmed to 84- 85. Overnight lows will be in the lower 60s, though a few of the cooler valley locations could fall back into the upper 50s. Upper low over Hudson Bay will slowly sink southward towards the Great Lakes by the end of the weekend. Upper ridging over the Desert Southwest of AZ/NM will shift westward and amplify pushing northward into the Pacific NW over the same time period. These two features will establish a northwest flow aloft as a series of disturbances move within the flow as well as a couple of cold front for the end of the week and weekend.
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure will build over the area today bringing mostly sunny and pleasantly warm conditions with more comfortable humidity levels.
Tonight through Wednesday Night The ridge of high pressure continues to build over the southwestern United States. However, warm temperatures aloft and subsidence under high pressure should hinder any convection.
An upper-level composite analysis this afternoon reveals a deep but weak ridge persisting over the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters.
Weak ridging remains over the region, extending from the western North Atlantic through the northern Bahamas across the Florida Keys. Temperatures will continue to climb into the lower to mid 90s this afternoon, and outdoor conditions will continue to deteriorate in terms of the oppressive heat. From synopsis, a weak Atlantic ridge will continue to lift slowly northward across South Florida through midweek, then remain statioany nary into the weekend. At Key West, July 11, 2015 marked the end of 28 consecutive days with low temperatures of 80 degrees or warmer, the longest stretch on record.
A cold front will move southward during the day on Wednesday and will approach our region sometime Wednesday afternoon and evening.
132 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 A typical summertime pattern with high pressure offshore and troughing inland will redevelop through late this week bringing hot and muggy weather. High pressure remains over the eastern seaboard through midweek keeping things warm dry and muggy across ENC. The next chance at some unsettled weather will be this weekend as several weak impulses round the base of a broad upper level low in Canada.
1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure remains centered near El Paso early this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are finally waning as a short wave trough rotating southeastward on the east side of the ridge begins to exit the area. Models remain consistent with a slight expansion of the ridge to the east with an uptick in heights and thicknesses across the forecast area. If something does form, the high- based nature points to a limited high wind threat, an idea progged DCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg also support.
A mid to upper level ridge remains situated over Western TX/Southern New Mexico.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching cold front will increase WAA across the forecast area and combined with insolation will boost temperatures several degrees when compared to yesterday. The cold front will slowly sag southward overnight and into the morning before stalling somewhere near the I-70 corridor during the early evening.
1206 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure located across the Ohio River Valley this afternoon will build to the east. The center of the high is forecast to pass off the Middle Atlantic coast Wednesday.
While a broad upper ridge will build on Wednesday as the upper trough moves out to the northeast, a remnant MCV currently over far eastern Oklahoma will move southeast toward the region by Wednesday afternoon.
High pressure will continue to build into the area bringing very hot, near-record temperatures to central and southern Utah by this weekend.
Strong high pressure will be developing over Nevada later this week, bringing very hot and dry weather to the region. West southwest flow aloft persists across the northern half of Nevada through Wednesday night, courtesy of a Pacific Northwest trough moving from Washington to Montana.
A cold front will slowly sink south this evening, with the potential for the front to stall near the Indiana Toll Road tonight. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s as shower/storm chances increase around daybreak Wednesday. Rain and storms should be scattered to widespread Wednesday as the cold front continues to move through the CWA. Additional rain/storm chances are possible as an upper level low centered over the Hudson Bay pivots through Manitoba and Ontario late week into the weekend.
Tomorrow, another similar day to today is forecasted as the upper ridge moves over more of the area. Temperatures are forecasted to warm into the 90's with the higher temperatures over Eastern Colorado and nearby counties where drier air is forecasted to move in.
725 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure will maintain dry weather through most of the area tonight as it moves east of the region. High pressure, centered across the Ohio Valley region, is expected to move east of the region tonight. A cold front is progged to drop slowly southward, approaching northern Ohio and NW PA late tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly north of PIT, as diurnal instability builds through the day and the trough approaches toward evening.
A weak sfc trof engulfs the area and pockets of higher instability are allowing a few weak showers to briefly develop and dissipate across the ern Piedmont. The fcst will be kept dry per the guidance blend and the CAM output, but will not be surprised if we pop a few showers in the afternoon, over the higher terrain or where dewpts remain pooled. These storms will move toward the area so we will have the chance of storms each period with the highest chance in the North Carolina mountains and the lowest chance in the lower Piedmont of the Carolinas.
710 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Another round of wet weather is expected to continue tonight into tomorrow before the influence of upper ridging begins. This activity will keep temperature minimums in the lower 70s with mid-to-upper 70s elsewhere.
727 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure in the Tennessee Valley this morning will move east and settle over the Appalachians tonight.
Temperatures skyrocketed to the low to mid 90s again this afternoon, with Marathon International Airport breaking a record high of 96 degrees in 1991, as today's high temperature peaked at 98 degrees. For the rest of tonight, the high moisture content currently east of the Bahamas will slowly advect into the area; therefore, expect partly cloudy skies with overnight temperatures near the lower to mid 80s. A weak Atlantic ridge will continue to lift over South Florida through Wednesday.
The high dewpoints will continue tonight into Wednesday as the lower troposphere continues to slowly warm ahead of the next front. A pre-frontal trough axis will provide a wind shift to the north early in the day for most of the forecast area north of the Arkansas River, but the strongest cold air advection will be delayed as the stronger north- northeast winds are expected to arrive later in the afternoon up north. Along the advancing cold front tomorrow evening, there will likely be isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of central Kansas, mainly east of our forecast area, so we will maintain silent POPs of 14 percent or less, however it can't be ruled out that Stafford down to Barber County sees a brief thunderstorm in vicinity.
611 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Hot and dry conditions will persist across the area through Wednesday as upper level high pressure dominates.
Baggy mid level trough over the Southeast US gradually lifts out Wed and allow upper ridging to gradually build over FL into the weekend. In the lower levels, the Atlc ridge axis will lift northward and reposition across central FL. But the airmass will be more suppressed with the building upper ridge overhead creating mid level subsidence/warming with 500 mb temps around -5C. Daily max values will reach the mid 90s interior, holding in the lower 90s immediate coast due to the sea breeze. Atlc ridge axis is forecast to be draped across central FL and the adjacent Atlc waters this period.
* Record Breaking Heat Ahead: Strong high pressure sets up across the west allowing for temperatures to soar to near record and record breaking values in the Sierra and western Nevada. Confidence is increasing for overnight lows to remain well above normal with many warmer valleys sitting at or around mid to upper 60s and some in the low 70s.
631 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 Warmer and more humid conditions will arrive to the Midsouth on Wednesday, and persist for several days.
A weak inland trough will develop tomorrow as high pressure builds over the Atlantic through the week. Aloft, nearly zonal flow will persist as the area remains situated between a large trough well to the north and weak ridging to the south.
With the ridge axis over S FL, greatest rain chances will likely reside along/north of I-4 within the deeper onshore/westerly flow and associated moisture axis/highest PW values, while SWFL could see some afternoon through early evening showers/storms develop with the sea breeze as temps further south likely warm a slight bit more in the absence of convection and cloud cover earlier in the day closer to the ridge axis. Temps tonight remain mild in the mid to upper 70s, with Wednesday afternoon highs reaching the lower 90s north and central, and the mid 90s south. Later afternoon and lower confidence potential for southern terminals given proximity to ridge axis likely delaying convective development.
515 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023 For the first half of the week a ridge will keep WY hot and dry. By the end of the week into this weekend the ridge will flatten, which should drop temperatures back to near normal and bring in slight chances for thunderstorms.
745 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure and dry weather are expected tonight and Wednesday.
Temps lowered to normal today behind yesterday's weak Pacific short wave trough that came inland along the US/ Canadian border.
The models have been fairly consistent over the last several days with a ridge of high pressure expected to shift slightly west over the next few days, moving 850 mb temperatures in excess of 30C over the interior areas of Northwestern California this weekend.
642 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure will maintain dry weather through most of the area tonight as it moves east of the region. High pressure, centered across the Ohio Valley region, is expected to move east of the region tonight. A cold front is progged to drop slowly southward, approaching northern Ohio and NW PA late tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly north of PIT, as diurnal instability builds through the day and the trough approaches toward evening.
948 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure in the Tennessee Valley this morning will move east and settle over the Appalachians tonight.