Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front, that will cross the region this morning, will usher in cooler temperature for the first half of the week. A cold front will cross the eastern half of the forecast area this morning, clearing the eastern edge by early afternoon. The rain shield will shift east of the region early this afternoon, with mainly dry and cooler conditions expected for the rest of the day. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today, some 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
1237 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 (This evening through Monday) An outflow-enhanced cold front has pushed southward through the forecast area, although it will likely stall not much farther south than its location as of 1 PM.
242 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Weak cold front exits east of the mountains this afternoon.
304 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Through the first half of the work week, the region will be sandwiched between a deep cut-off trough that will be positioned across the Great Lakes region and zonal flow across the Mid-South.
357 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Low pressure over the Ohio River Valley will approach the area this afternoon bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Aloft, a broad closed low spins over the Great Lakes region, promoting dry northerly flow into the region. The stratus deck that suppressed temperatures yesterday was slow to erode overnight, and as such lows this morning a bit warmer than forecast over the eastern CWA. The lower overcast clouds will slowly erode and move east through the morning with dry air continuing to filter into the region.
Synoptically, there is an area on low pressure over the Great Lakes region with a cold front stalling north of the Deep South. Locally, high pressure continues to ridge south of the area and surface wind flow will persist from the SW-W through the forecast period with light overnight conditions. Daytime highs are forecast to peak in the lower 90s with higher heat indices and overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Upper level ridging centered over Saskatchewan will result in drier conditions the next few days save for a few showers and thunderstorms over the Southwestern Mountains. Tuesday will feature more of the same across the region as the upper level ridge pivots to over Eastern Montana.
Upper low is now settling into western Great Lakes and will drive the weather for at least next couple days. This includes cooler than normal temperatures, more cloud cover compared to past few weeks, and intermittent shower chances. Besides some diurnal influence, will be watching short wave rotating around upper low to drop across Wisconsin later today, sparking some mainly afternoon and evening showers. This will also keep temperatures cooler in central Wisconsin compared to milder conditions across parts of Minnesota and Iowa. Rest of the Week into the Weekend: Still seeing agreement that upper low will exit east for latter half of week allowing for ridging and warmup again.
A cold front will move through the Carolinas today, reaching offshore early Tuesday. Breezy today ahead of an afternoon or evening cold front. The best chance of any precip associated with the cold front will be in southeastern NC, but most of the area will have at least a chance as a broken line of discrete convection approaches the area. Profiles show the bulk of instability above the freezing level today, but freezing levels are likely to be between 13-14k ft AGL with surface temperatures near 90. Generally unsettled weather will persist through the period with a couple of slow moving upper lows over the Great Lakes and NE U. sending occasional short wave troughs this way.
The sky was clear over southeast Arizona this morning with upper level trofiness to our west/northwest and upper level high pressure to our southeast.
1000 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Drier and cooler weather will build into the area from the west today as weak high pressure wedges in from the mid Mississippi Valley.
Cooler conditions today into Tuesday, then a warming trend will occur the rest of the week. Highs will warm into the lower to middle 70s this afternoon.
634 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Deterministic runs maintain a quasi-stationary upper level high pressure system over the region during the period. An upper level disturbance is expected to move around the western/northern periphery of this upper high during the period, which will increase the MSLP gradient over the region and thus increase onshore flow. Again, no significant precipitation expected over the CWA during the period due to the position of the upper high pressure/corresponding thermodynamic profile characterized by high CIN, near surface moisture, and dry conditions aloft.
Additionally, the mid/upper level low centered over southern Nevada will continue to advect moisture counter-clockwise over the region.
1011 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Rain will clear from west to east through early afternoon with the crossing cold front. Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half of the week behind the cold front. The cold front continues to work its way across the area from west to east, with showers clearing behind. However, clouds will be slow to clear, leaving dry, but cloudy and cooler conditions for the remainder of the day. The closed upper low over the Great Lakes will make little eastward progress into Tuesday. By Tuesday morning, rainfall will rotate around the backside of this low and into the Ohio Valley, eventually reaching the Pittsburgh area by Tuesday afternoon/evening, and continuing into the overnight.
Key Messages: - 500 mb ridge axis to our west providing northerly flow aloft, which will start to bring higher level smoke into the region from the Canadian wildfires, most noticeable tonight into Tuesday. This supports warmer temps for highs today and Tuesday.
Synoptically, there is an area on low pressure over the Great Lakes region with a cold front stalling north of the Deep South. Locally, high pressure continues to ridge south of the area and surface wind flow will persist from the SW-W through the forecast period with light overnight conditions. Daytime highs are forecast to peak in the lower 90s with higher heat indices and overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. Highs start in the lower to mid 90s inland by Tuesday and continuing through the end of the work week. Rain chances from mid week trough the weekend will be ranging from the 30% to 60% as the mid-upper level trough will persist over the eastern CONUS this week, and some disturbances will move across northern FL.
The 12z sounding at KEY revealed rising geopotential heights in the low- and mid-levels consistent with a ridge building westward in the Atlantic towards the Keys, with quasi- steady sampled heights above 500 mb owed to a stubborn upper-level trough in the Gulf of Mexico. Earlier this morning, training thunderstorm cells in portions of the Lower Keys prompted flood advisories from Cudjoe Key to Big Pine Key, where between 2-5" of rain fell over a period of a few hours. From synopsis, high pressure in the west- central Atlantic will continue to build a ridge westward through the Bahamas and the Florida Keys for the work week.
Warmer than yesterday with some wind. Chances for showers return this evening and overnight as upper level waves rotate around the closed low. Aloft, a closed low was centered over Lake Michigan, this low had a series of waves rotating around it that will drive the weather in the short term. CAMs are more aggressive than the spectral models, this is probably due to the mediocre lapse rates under the upper low. Tuesday temps could be cooler than forecast. Temperatures warm up as ridging builds in.
Cooler than average weather and persistent onshore flow will remain in place through late this week as a broad area of low pressure remains anchored over the area.
616 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Cooler weather will continue into Tuesday as an upper low lingers over the region. High temperatures will return to the low to mid 80s during the second half of this week. A discombobulated blocking pattern across North America will allow an upper low and associated very chilly air to linger over the Upper Great Lakes region into Tuesday.
Showers were slow to dissipate overnight, and by that I mean, some showers still persist over Modoc and Lake county early this morning as moisture continues to wrap around a large closed low to our south. More showers and a few thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon, although activity should be diminished and the focus farther to the southeast due to the eastward movement of that closed low. Meanwhile, the thermal trough has weakened slightly, and fog and low clouds have developed or spread into all of the coastal waters and pushed inland into the coast and the coastal valleys. The southern low will push farther to the east today and tomorrow, while a southwest to northeast oriented ridge nudges into the Pacific Northwest.
High pressure will remain across the area Tuesday, bringing one more day of dry weather. Highs will generally be about 5 degrees warmer than today.
736 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 (Today through Tuesday) The start of the week will be warm and unsettled as a longwave trough makes it's way across the eastern US. Temperatures will be slightly cooler and near normal in the upper 80s due to the cloud coverage. On the backside of the frontal boundary, and before the western Atlantic ridge axis expands, there will be a another round of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday before the dry air enters. Temperatures will be on a warming trend with highs rising into the low 90s across the entire region.
There will also be a low end threat for flooding due to training of convective cells, with the highest threat between I-20 and I-85.
Unseasonably cool temperatures more in line with early May will prevail for the next 24 hours as a deep closed low aloft spins over Lake Michigan. Even with fairly deep mixing, afternoon highs will be limited to the lower/mid 70s as 800mb temps drop to +4C. Record lows are in the 40s for our climate sites, which should all bottom out in the lower 50s even though some more rural locations could dip into the upper 40s.
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL Through Tuesday, a broad area of low pressure over the Great Basin will continue to transport subtropical atmospheric moisture from the Gulf of California to the Northern Rockies.
638 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night ) Showers and thunderstorms had come to an end across AR thanks to the passage of an backdoor cold front. Early Monday morning readings were in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
Temperatures remain cooler than what we would expect for this point in June. Some flooding concerns still exist in northern Nevada, especially along the lower Humboldt River. A positively tilted trough remains dominant through the short term with a low pressure system moving through southern portions of the state. This trough will be slowly drifting eastward and gradually departing the region. While this trough is still moving through the region it will keep moisture and instability across the silver state.
622 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 (Today through Tuesday) The story remains the same: 500 mb high pressure building north and east out of Mexico will remain the dominant weather feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the period.
Aloft, a broad closed low spins over the Great Lakes region, promoting dry northerly flow into the region. The stratus deck that suppressed temperatures yesterday was slow to erode overnight, and as such lows this morning a bit warmer than forecast over the eastern CWA. The lower overcast clouds will slowly erode and move east through the morning with dry air continuing to filter into the region. The closed upper-level low currently stalled across the Great Lakes region will ever-so-slowly progress east and allow for ridging to build aloft over the central CONUS.
The upper level closed low setting up over the Great Lakes region and the upper level closed high over southern Saskatchewan will work together to direct Canada wildfire smoke southwestward into the region later this evening through Tuesday, per the latest available HRRR vertically integrated smoke progs.
(Today through Tuesday) Early this morning the overnight cold front continues to move southeastward through the state. In the wake of the front we will see a cooler airmass with lower RHs work into the region. This will create slightly cooler than normal temperatures for June and make for a nice day overall. High temperatures will max in the low 80s to upper 70s north of I20 while highs will peak in the mid 80s to low 90s south.
955 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Low pressure over the Ohio River Valley will approach the area this afternoon bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. High pressure briefly returns Tuesday with a series of weak fronts set to cross the region mid to late week. Fair weather is expected Tue as weak high pressure builds in. Upper low across the Great Lks will drop southward during the middle portion of the week bringing a new chance of showers Wed mainly across the northern half of the CWA.
It's been another chilly morning today with temps being observed in the low to mid 30s in portions of northwest WI.
612 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 High pressure will remain over the area today and tonight.
(Now through Tuesday) An upper low will continue to meander across the Great Lakes region, while an upper ridge persists across the southern plains.
The remainder of the week will feature several rounds of rain and thunderstorms as temperatures trend warmer.
Through the first half of the work week, the region will be sandwiched between a deep cut-off trough that will be positioned across the Great Lakes region and zonal flow across the Mid-South.
146 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Key Message An upper low will rotate several bands of shower through our northeastern CWA. Lows in the lower to mid 50s are forecast. Tuesday, another shower chance is found in the east, as another vort wraps around the upper low, with saturation and lift mainly over Chicago. The deep mixing with dry air should again bring a breezy day over our western 2/3rds CWA, with highs mainly in the lower 80s, while to the east, under more cloud, we top our in the lower to mid 70s.
(Rest of Today) After a stormy period and passage of a cold front last night, dry weather is in the forecast today, as high pressure builds in from the north.
1245 PM PDT Mon Jun 12 2023 A low pressure system will slowly make its way out of the area today with lingering showers and thunderstorms across our mountain zones for several more days. Observed upper-air analysis now has the Closed Low centered near Las Vegas and expected to push further east today. Therefore, as the upper low shifts further east, will confine the showers and thunderstorms to the mountains and deserts today as good source of moisture still resides over the region. The slow movement of the upper low will keep the Sierra Nevada unsettled until the weekend when a ridge pattern begins influencing Central California weather. That percentage does drop-off toward the end of the week with a ridge pattern attempts to influence the West Coastâs weather.
409 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Warm and unsettled weather to start the week as a longwave trough makes it's way across the eastern US. Temperatures will be slightly cooler and near normal in the upper 80s due to the cloud coverage. On the backside of the frontal boundary, and before the western Atlantic ridge axis expands, there will be a another round of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday before the dry air enters. Temperatures will be on a warming trend with highs rising into the low 90s across the entire region.
The lower atmosphere will maintain relatively cool temperatures, with highs only reaching into the 70s in the afternoon. Overnight lows will vary, ranging from the low 50s across far western Kansas to the upper 50s across central Kansas.
124 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Blocked pattern will transition to semi-progressive flow as the Great Lakes upper low moves east. This will allow the weak upper ridge over the northern Rockies to shift east the next 2 days. Dry conds expected most places Tues as the ridge's effects dominate. Pac NW upper trough will move east, forcing a lee-side trough east Wed. Cooler conds expected Thur as the upper trough traverses the region.
1016 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Satellite shows some of the higher level smoke in Canada moving into the forecast region this morning. Otherwise a quiet day, with temperatures expected to get into the lower 80s this afternoon. Key Messages: - 500 mb ridge axis to our west providing northerly flow aloft, which will start to bring higher level smoke into the region from the Canadian wildfires, most noticeable tonight into Tuesday. This supports warmer temps for highs today and Tuesday.
A trough remains centered over southern NV and UT this morning, bringing east-northeast flow aloft. The storms will generally form over the higher terrain and weaken as they move into the lower elevations, like the Snake Basin (Treasure Valley).
124 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Cooler, but overall drier behind a departing cold front. More beneficial rain is expected Tuesday night as a stubborn upper low lingers near the lower Great Lakes. Cold front at 17Z is just to the east of the mountainous terrain. Tuesday starts out dry, but showers and isolated storms return to the forecast by the afternoon and evening as an upper low/trough deepens across the area.
124 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Already have showers and thunderstorms forming over the higher terrain and the slowly moving west. Temperatures will be a little warmer tomorrow than today, with most area will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
115 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023 19Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated large upper level low near the UT/NV border with apparent short wave trough lifting out of southern Colorado. With short wave trough providing forcing for large scale ascent and an airmass that will be relatively unstable with minimal heating, expect to see an increase in thunderstorms through the next few hours along western and southern borders which will gradually fill in overnight as trough lifts to the north. Trough will advance north overnight, but may actually get blocked by ridge axis to the north of the area.
A wedge of dry mid-level air and diminishing low-level stratocumulus overnight may allow temperatures to fall into the 30s in the high interior of Central Michigan, while winds go light. Showers are then favored to move into areas south of I-96 prior to daybreak Tue, associated with mid-level moisture curling around the low. As the surface warms and destabilizes under the core of the low in the afternoon, scattered showers/storms with briefly heavier downpours may develop.
Clear skies across southeast Arizona as the area is under dry southwest flow aloft as broad troughiness continues over the southwestern CONUS. Embedded in the troughiness are a couple of weak upper lows, one near the UT/AZ border and another weak circulation off the southern California coast. These features will move off to the northeast over the next couple of days but the broad trough to our west will persist with dry southwesterly flow for us the rest of this week. As some ridging aloft builds on the northwest periphery of the subtropical high across north central Mexico, heights and thicknesses will increase for the second half of the week into the weekend.
(This evening through Tuesday) Cold front has sagged all the way into the Concho Valley and Heartland this afternoon. As for temperatures, front will still have an affect on temperatures on Tuesday, with readings in the lower 90s across I-20 to near 100 again across the Concho Valley south into the Edwards Plateau.
A cold front continues to push through the area late this morning with northwest flow leading to a few areas of showers. Discussion: Most of the showers have exited our area to the east, as the primary shortave trough has moved east of the Appalachians. However, the surface cold front has yet to pass through, and is currently located across the Cumberland Plateau, identified mainly by a wind shift. Mostly clear skies tonight and building high pressure will allow for temperatures to drop well below normal tonight, with lows expected to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s in most spots.
Tonight and Tuesday An upper-level closed low over central Lake Michigan will track across Lower Michigan to the eastern Great Lakes throughout this forecast period. Meanwhile, moisture will continue to wrap around the low from the north and keep chances for showers in the forecast through Tuesday. Shower chances will decrease late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as the low moves further away. High temperatures for Tuesday will range from the upper 50s along the lakeshore to the low to middle 60s elsewhere.
However, upper level high pressure over southern Canada combined with the upper level low pressure to our east will bring northerly winds into the upper levels.
Cooler temperatures are forecast through the first half of the week behind the cold front. Cold frontal passage is complete across the forecast area and showers have exited east. However, clouds will be slow to clear, leaving dry, but cloudy and cooler conditions for the remainder of the day. The closed upper low over the Great Lakes will make little eastward progress into Tuesday. By Tuesday morning, rainfall will rotate around the backside of this low and into the Ohio Valley, eventually reaching the Pittsburgh area by Tuesday afternoon/evening, and continuing through the overnight.
A weak frontal boundary, mostly a surface trof, currently extends roughly east-west across the central portion of the forecast area and is expected to slowly drift towards central Mississippi/Alabama through Tuesday afternoon. Have continued with slight chance/chance pops for overnight then chance to likely pops follow for Tuesday with the higher pops generally across interior areas. Lows tonight range from the mid/upper 60s well inland to the lower/mid 70s elsewhere.
259 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Deep upper low (by June standards) remains quasistationary over the western Great Lakes with multiple spokes of higher vorticity pivoting around it. Each small vort max rotating around the main upper low will result in an uptick in precip coverage/chances over the next 24 hours. One last wave is just east of Lake Huron, with guidance bring that one around the upper low and into our area Tuesday. 38" on DVN's 1200 UTC sounding this morning (based on SPC's newly upgraded SPC sounding climo page)! Water vapor imagery shows moisture being advected north and west around the periphery of this upper low, on a general track toward our area as it pivots around the upper low.
1242 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Deterministic runs maintain a quasi-stationary upper level high pressure system over the region during the period. An upper level disturbance is expected to move around the western/northern periphery of this upper high during the period, which will increase the MSLP gradient over the region and thus increase onshore flow. Again, no significant precipitation expected over the CWA during the period due to the position of the upper high pressure/corresponding thermodynamic profile characterized by high CIN, near surface moisture, and dry conditions aloft.
1240 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 (Today through Tuesday) The story remains the same: 500 mb high pressure building north and east out of Mexico will remain the dominant weather feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the period.
341 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Broad low pressure aloft through mid week.
Dry and much cooler tonight. Discussion: Large closed low aloft encompasses the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon with a secondary disturbance moving out of the southern plains. Skies remain partly to mostly cloudy this afternoon behind a cold front that is now moving off the Appalachians. Winds have veered toward the west and northwest behind this front and this will advect a much cooler airmass into the area tonight. Overnight lows will be unseasonably cool with most locations in the lower to mid 50's.