Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
309 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Latest surface analysis shows widespread high pressure across the OH Valley with a low pressure center over the Mitten State. A weak trough along the MS River is also evident, which provided enough lift for showers and thunderstorms to develop across TN. Loose pressure gradient has resulted in light and variable winds across the Commonwealth while KY Mesonet observations report highs so far today in the low to mid 80s. The cold front, associated with the aforementioned low pressure system over MI, will continue to encroach southward overnight with FROPA across our area occurring around sunrise. Afternoon highs will be several degrees cooler Friday within the modified cP airmass, with mercury rising into the upper 70s to low 80s north of of the I-64 corridor and into the mid 80s south of there.
There are some discrepancies between the models for the location and strength of the trough. The GFS has the trough further west than the Euro, NAM, and SREF. However, the NAM also has the trough further North then the rest of the models as well.
Taking a wider view, a strong lobe of vorticity will pivot through the upper trough over the Great Lakes and northeastern US. At the surface, a weak cold front will be progressing out of Kentucky right at the time of peak heating, which should help fire isolated to scattered thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Heading towards Friday evening, the cold front pushes through portions of the area bringing an end to storm chances as it clears past.
232 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 A stray shower or storm will be possible this evening, then a cold front will move south across central Illinois late this evening and overnight with temps falling into the 50s. Expect highs in the lower to mid 80s Friday under hazy skies.
256 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler, drier conditions with better air quality filtering in tonight. A cold front has been pushing southwest today dropping dew points, keeping temperatures cooler than expected, and improving air quality. An approaching trough now appears will make better eastward progress this weekend than progged for the last few days.
Western and central North Dakota is situated under southwest flow aloft as ridging has moved off to our east and a trough approaches from the west. At the surface, a slow moving cold front is currently located near the central part of the state, moving east. Showers and storms will transition to more of a stratiform rain regime with some embedded thunder after 06z tonight, eventually moving east of the Highway 83 corridor and towards the James River Valley by mid to late Friday morning. Highs on Friday will be much cooler behind the front, ranging from the mid 60s to the mid 70s.
114 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Current upper air models and Water Vapor depict an upper trough over the northern Rockies, an upper low over the New England region, and the upper ridge sitting over the northern and central plains. At the surface, low pressure sits over South Dakota, with a frontal boundary currently situated from northwestern SD, running southwest into Wyoming. Frontal boundary and associated mid-level trough will slide across the region today, keeping temperatures in northeast WY and far western SD cooler, with highs only reaching into the 60s to low 70s.
Temperatures are running slightly cooler, with wildfire smoke remaining elevated thus far through the first half of the day. Satellite imagery also shows clouds are approaching from the west associated with a trough that will pass through the area today. The trough, combined with the attendant cold front, will bring precipitation chances to eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota today and Friday. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the cold front will do too much in terms of our temperatures as of now.
428 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 With the low pressure responsible for much of this week's precipitation now well into New England, one might have expected clearing skies over the region as a Hudson High builds over the UP. With temperatures failing to warm greatly during the day and expected clearing under the influence of building high pressure by the afternoon/evening, lows across the interior west could reach into the mid 30s, leading to some frost potential, and maybe some patches of fog where winds are low enough.
(The rest of today ) Short wave upper ridging currently in place will result in a settled afternoon across the forecast area.
A cold front moved across the region yesterday and last night and brought some fresh snow to the mountain peaks. Tomorrow will be a nice day as the upper level low moves out of the region tonight and is briefly replaced by a weak ridge.
1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 (Today and tonight) Very hot and dry conditions are expected today across parts of the Concho Valley, Northern Edwards Plateau, and Northwest Hill Country today as high pressure and zonal flow aloft remain in place across West Central TX, there will be much less cloud cover to start the day today in comparison to previous days.
A northern stream low pressure system will mix things up as it pushes into our area by the early evening. This system will drag through a cold front that will promote shower activity tonight and through Friday morning. A cold front exits south of the area early Friday morning, while an upper level trough/low digs south bringing ripples of vorticity through Friday night. Available low level moisture, diurnal heating and forcing from the aforementioned trough/low will result in chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Another cold front pushes all moisture east with showers and storms decreasing in intensity and coverage from west to east Friday afternoon and evening.
1026 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 (Issued 1026 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023) Lower clouds behind a backdoor cold front across roughly the northeast 2/3 of the forecast area will linger through late this morning. Otherwise, the backdoor cold front will drop south across the area later this morning. These cloudy conditions is expected to result in a cooler today compared to yesterday, coolest near Lake Michigan. Winds should relax tonight, especially across south-central Wisconsin, as high pressure begins to build into the region.
Northwesterly flow behind the departing upper trough will bring Canadian wildfire smoke to the plains tonight. No changes otherwise, with a cooler than average day and afternoon and early evening isolated showers and thunderstorms expected.
Once the high clouds move away, we'll have clear skies over most of the area the rest of today. However, looking at several obs, most locations were below freezing for an hour or two, then increased pretty quickly shortly after sunrise.
Northwesterly flow aloft, around the base of mean trough situated over the Great Lakes/Northeast US, has once again ushered smoky air in from ongoing wildfires in Canada. The best chances (~20 PoP) for any rainfall are over/near the high terrain adjacent to the Virginia border. The best forcing and PWATs with the upper level trough will remain just northeast of the Jackson CWA. On Friday, the threat for spotty showers and storms will transition to our far southeastern Kentucky counties as the cold front sinks through the area during the morning and then exits early in the afternoon.
The highest probabilities for deep moist convection are expected to remain further south of the area but locations near the OK state line may be impacted this evening before the sfc-based storms diminish. The mid/upper ridge will amplify over the area on Fri likely suppressing deep moist convection during the day across the area. Afternoon and evening storms developing across the High Plains may drift southeastward into portions of central KS before diminishing and pops were trended slightly lower as the nocturnal signal appears rather weak at this time.
A cold front will move through area on Friday, with dry conditions expected behind it for this weekend. A stationary will linger across the local area through tonight, eventually lifting north of the area as a weak warm front early Friday morning. Highs Friday will be dependent upon convective initiation timing, but thickness tools and NBM generally agree with the mid to upper 80s west of the Bay to the lower 80s Delmarva. Pops should end rather quickly after sunset, then dry for much of this coming weekend, as high pressure settles in from the west. Sat/Sat night looks dry and pleasant, with highs in the low to mid 80s under a partly to mostly sunny sky.
Low pressure will develop across the region and prevail through the early and middle part of the week. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Some semblance of a split-flow pattern will be in place across the CONUS with highly amplified ridging through the northern Plains/ western Great Lakes overtop strong low amplitude westerlies extending from Texas to off the Atlantic coast.
130 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 With the low pressure responsible for much of this week's precipitation now well into New England, one might have expected clearing skies over the region as a Hudson High builds over the UP. With temperatures failing to warm greatly during the day and expected clearing under the influence of building high pressure by the afternoon/evening, lows across the interior west could reach into the mid 30s, leading to some frost potential, and maybe some patches of fog where winds are low enough.
Dry and warmer conditions then return heading into the new week. High pressure was again located over Hudson Bay with the ridge axis stretching southward into the Upper Midwest. Skies were mainly clear across the Northland outside of lingering cloud cover over eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin from an area of low pressure over lower Michigan. With easterly to southeasterly synoptic winds, the lake breeze is expected to push inland once again bringing cooler air inland by early afternoon.
On Friday, the next upper-level trough in a series will start to approach our area.
A trough of low pressure centered over the northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies this morning is resulting in enhanced cloud cover across the AZ/UT border with even some light rain showers being reported near Page. This area continues to be favored for additional shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon, and especially this evening as another disturbance rotates through the base of the trough. A weak trough will keep moisture in place over far northern Arizona again today.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: High pressure system moves into the area today within a dry slot that will be to the south of an upper low moving through the Canadian Prairies. A lingering shower is possible this morning in Wibaux County as the cold front moves to the east. WNW winds will be strong enough behind the cold front today that a Lake Wind Advisory will be in effect for Fort Peck Lake.
Given the latest trends of mixing dew points lower during the afternoon and the potential for smoke to limit heating a touch, will lean on the lower side of CAPE values.
Another upper level low and a low pressure system will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the early evening, with additional periods of showers through the weekend. Weak low level ridging and some subsidence will promote some decrease in clouds this evening before some high clouds approach from the west ahead of the next developing upper closed low. Clouds advance into our region through the morning and by afternoon, showers and scattered thunderstorms ahead of the developing upper low will spread across our region. Moisture advection will be considerable and with low level convergence with the wind shift proximate to the upper closed low, locally heavy rain possible in any thunderstorms. Then, the center of the upper closed low drifts through or just south of our region.
220 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Short Term/Aviation/Marine A cold front is currently moving across the cwa but has not yet triggered any storms. Cooler temperatures aloft advecting south toward the southeast cwa would favor hail as a threat and wind the secondary threat. Once the front moves through, high pressure will nose in from Lake Superior and dry weather will prevail through Friday night.
The ridge and high pressure aloft will continue to build. However, we do have a cold front approaching our area tomorrow. Exactly where these two boundaries set up will affect the high temperature pretty significantly.
1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 (The rest of today ) Short wave upper ridging currently in place will result in a settled afternoon across the forecast area.
Models shows the mid level ridge building over the region on Friday. NBM has been mixing the low level moisture too much, especially over the Brush Country.
The dry upper level trough over our area today will exit tonight, to be replaced by a flattish positive tilt weak upper level ridge on Friday.
The set up remains the same we have seen all week with southwesterly flow at the surface with moisture but drier air aloft associated with an upper level ridge. This trend will start to change tomorrow as the ridge axises retreats allowing the troughing over the southeast to push into Florida.
342 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Upper level low pressure will move into the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
636 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 A cold front dropping southward from the Great Lakes will cause winds to swing around to the northeast and a much cooler airmass to settle into central Illinois tonight. with a few readings dipping into the lower 50s northeast of the I-74 corridor. a cold front is noted pushing south across northern Illinois and should clear the central Illinois forecast area shortly after midnight tonight. In fact, mid/upper level height rises are in play ahead of a strong upper ridge translating slowly east across the Great Plains which should help to keep precip coverage low as we head through the evening. A modest northeasterly breeze will continue behind the front Friday keeping temps near to slightly below normal, but still warm with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
An upper level trough is situated over the Northern Rockies extending south through the Great Basin this afternoon. A disturbance is forecast to rotate through the base of the trough this evening as is passes through southern Utah. Similar conditions are anticipated for Friday as the parent trough makes little movement by tomorrow. Daytime temperatures in this area will actually see a decrease Friday as well due to the trough, while the remainder of the forecast area sees little change in temperatures.
02z surface analysis showed main cold front has exited the CWA courtesy of low over northeast SD. Current upper air models and Water Vapor depict an upper trough over the northern Rockies, an upper low over the New England region, and the upper ridge sitting over the northern and central plains. At the surface, low pressure sits over South Dakota, with a frontal boundary currently situated from northwestern SD, running southwest into Wyoming. Frontal boundary and associated mid-level trough will slide across the region today, keeping temperatures in northeast WY and far western SD cooler, with highs only reaching into the 60s to low 70s.
Temperatures trend cooler with overnight lows tonight in the 30s across most of the forecast area, and mainly dry, quiet conditions settle in through the rest of the week.
740 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Upper level low pressure will move into the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
619 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Upper level low pressure will move into the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
Cool upper trough currently over our area will weaken and shift east Friday as a short wave ridge comes in from the west.
958 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Cold front from the north provides scattered showers and storms through Thursday night.
718 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Another cold front will move southeast from the Great Lakes and pass across the Mid-Atlantic Friday, resulting in more scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Latest surface analysis shows widespread high pressure across the OH Valley with a low pressure center over the Mitten State. A weak trough along the MS River is also evident, which provided enough lift for showers and thunderstorms to develop across TN. Loose pressure gradient has resulted in light and variable winds across the Commonwealth while KY Mesonet observations report highs so far today in the low to mid 80s. The cold front, associated with the aforementioned low pressure system over MI, will continue to encroach southward overnight with FROPA across our area occurring around sunrise. Afternoon highs will be several degrees cooler Friday within the modified cP airmass, with mercury rising into the upper 70s to low 80s north of of the I-64 corridor and into the mid 80s south of there.
524 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Current upper air models and Water Vapor depict an upper trough over the northern Rockies, an upper low over the New England region, and the upper ridge sitting over the northern and central plains. At the surface, low pressure sits over South Dakota, with a frontal boundary currently situated from northwestern SD, running southwest into Wyoming. Frontal boundary and associated mid-level trough will slide across the region today, keeping temperatures in northeast WY and far western SD cooler, with highs only reaching into the 60s to low 70s.
620 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler, drier conditions with better air quality filtering in tonight. A cold front has been pushing southwest today dropping dew points, keeping temperatures cooler than expected, and improving air quality. An approaching trough now appears will make better eastward progress this weekend than progged for the last few days.
Throughout the short term, we observe an upper-level ridge dominating the Plains region, while an upper-level trough maintains its presence over the Intermountain West. At the surface, a low-pressure system will track along the Colorado/New Mexico border in the afternoon, followed by its progression along the Kansas/Oklahoma border in the evening. Accompanying this system, a warm front will extend eastward, and a dryline will stretch southward into the Texas Panhandle, gradually advancing into Oklahoma later in the evening. Overnight temperatures will range from the mid-50s along the Kansas/Colorado border to the low 60s across south-central Kansas. Overnight low temperatures will range from the mid-50s along the Kansas/Colorado border to the low 60s across central Kansas.
915 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Upper level low pressure will move into the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
749 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Aviation A cold front is currently moving across the cwa but has not yet triggered any storms. Cooler temperatures aloft advecting south toward the southeast cwa would favor hail as a threat and wind the secondary threat. Once the front moves through, high pressure will nose in from Lake Superior and dry weather will prevail through Friday night.
Still anticipating low temperatures to merely drop into the lower to mid 60s for most areas; although, some spots along the TN River may hover in the mid to upper 60s late tonight.
A significant cooling trend and a chance for light rain with develop thereafter with the arrival of a cold upper trough and eventual cold front. The extended pattern favors more troughing, below average temperatures and possibly more light precipitation at times. Northerly winds are breezy again today, with the typical standout spots around the coast and ridges of Cape Mendocino and Coastal Del Norte around Point Saint George to see the strongest gusts into the evening. High pressure continues to nose in from the west, creating a brief warmup. An unseasonably strong, anomalous cold upper low will begin moving in from the north over the weekend.
739 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Upper level low pressure will move into the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
Currently - A robust surface Atlantic ridge stretches westward across the Keys and the Gulf of Mexico. The proximity to the ridge axis has resulted in light southeast to southerly breezes across the Keys. Looking aloft, the Keys reside within the descending western flank of a mid and upper level trough aligned across eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. Short Term Update - Surface ridging will remain in control of Keys weather through the overnight period. Surface winds will remain largely light out of the southeast to south with some slight strengthening as day time effects wear off and the ridge axis nudges southward. An Atlantic ridge stretching westward across Keys waters will maintain mostly light southeast to southerly breezes.
751 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 With the low pressure responsible for much of this week's precipitation now well into New England, one might have expected clearing skies over the region as a Hudson High builds over the UP. With temperatures failing to warm greatly during the day and expected clearing under the influence of building high pressure by the afternoon/evening, lows across the interior west could reach into the mid 30s, leading to some frost potential, and maybe some patches of fog where winds are low enough.
1054 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler, drier conditions with better air quality filtering in tonight. A cold front has been pushing southwest today dropping dew points, keeping temperatures cooler than expected, and improving air quality. An approaching trough now appears will make better eastward progress this weekend than progged for the last few days.
121 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 With the low pressure responsible for much of this week's precipitation now well into New England, one might have expected clearing skies over the region as a Hudson High builds over the UP. With temperatures failing to warm greatly during the day and expected clearing under the influence of building high pressure by the afternoon/evening, lows across the interior west could reach into the mid 30s, leading to some frost potential, and maybe some patches of fog where winds are low enough.
1121 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Upper level low pressure will move into the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
With the low level winds remaining north-northeast off of Lake Huron, some concern the low clouds will be slow to dissipate this afternoon (see 5z RAP 850 MB RH), but will lean toward drier Euro/Regional GEM solutions which suggests 850 MB temps reaching between 10-11 C supporting highs predominately in the mid 70s.
205 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Storms move out of the area today with drier and cooler conditions to start out the weekend. Current sfc analysis depicts cold front draped across central SD. Upper level trough axis sits over central WY. Unsettled weather continues today as the upper trough moves through the region.
254 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Upper level low pressure will move away through the Maritimes today. A new upper low will approach tonight and cross the area this weekend.
1118 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 A deepening upper trough will push across Pennsylvania Friday, then become a cut-off low over New England by Saturday.
A cold front is currently moving across the cwa but has not yet triggered any storms. Cooler temperatures aloft advecting south toward the southeast cwa would favor hail as a threat and wind the secondary threat. Once the front moves through, high pressure will nose in from Lake Superior and dry weather will prevail through Friday night.
A fairly persistent pattern will remain over the area through the short term with mid-level ridging to the SW and a persistent cyclone across New England.
Still anticipating low temperatures to merely drop into the lower to mid 60s for most areas; although, some spots along the TN River may hover in the mid to upper 60s late tonight. At this time, it looks as though the MCS will move largely to the south of our area during Friday morning/afternoon given steering and the placement/orientation of the expected low-lvl theta-e ridge axis. Otherwise, expectations for better insolation tomorrow may allow for warmer temperatures reaching near 90F.
Upper level troughing will continue to nudge northeastward through the remainder of the day. The aforementioned upper trough departs northeastward tonight, but a lingering, weak/decaying, closed low will remain across primarily eastern Idaho and Wyoming.