Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Looking at the 850 mb level, temperatures are slightly cooler from yesterdays heat wave by a few degrees. Mid-level moisture stuck beneath the ridge and mid level PVA will help contribute to todays potential thunderstorm development this afternoon. Looking into Friday, the upper level ridge will position itself over the southwest corner of the US, allowing for the CWA to be centered over relatively northwest flow at 250 mb.
Better focus for deep convection in the upslope flow across the high Plains this evening will track southeastward and could affect portions of central and southern Kansas late tonight into early Friday morning. While differing somewhat on timing and placement, the NAM/GFS/RAP/HRRR are in general agreement in developing convection along the cold front in north central Kansas late Friday afternoon.
Anomalously high dewpoints were observed across much of the High Plains today. Temperatures will continue to be on the lower end of guidance for afternoon highs given all this moisture around and convective debris from MCSs likely hanging around.
However, moisture aloft appears weaker on Friday, so scattered showers and thunderstorms can develop mainly over the higher terrain Friday afternoon-evening but it appears that it will be difficult for showers/storms to sustain themselves once they move off the higher terrain to most of the lower elevations. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over the lower elevations, but areal coverage should be limited.
The wly LLJ will increase to 25 kt with warm, moist advection bringing the 850 MB thermal ridge into the area.
Isolated storms will be possible near the boundary, especially toward the Ozarks where slighly cooler mid level temps and elevation can assist.
Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 70s.
Forecast Discussion: Looking at the synoptic pattern across the CONUS this afternoon, an upper level ridge of high pressure remained over the Desert Southwest with westerly to northwesterly flow from the Pacific Northwest through the Midwest and toward the east coast. An expansive upper level low remains displaced well north of the US, over central Canada. The pattern becomes move amplified during the upcoming weekend as the southwestern ridge builds.
1128 AM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Synoptic Overview: A flattened upper level ridge -- presently situated over the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains -- will gradually amplify and migrate westward to the Pacific Coast this weekend. on the northern periphery of the aforementioned ridge. as the aforementioned ridge retrogrades west toward the Pacific Coast and amplifies /extends northward/ through the Intermountain West and PAC NW. Expect relatively cooler temperatures and [overall] decreased potential for convection.
Friday will be the warmest with highs in the low 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s. Friday will have highs in the low 90s with some heat indices in the upper 90s.
259 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 A cold front will continue to push south through the area tonight. A cold front is continuing to sag slowly south across the area this afternoon. Lows will range from the lower 60s northwest to the mid/upper 60s southeast.
Looking at the 850 mb level, temperatures are slightly cooler from yesterdays heat wave by a few degrees. Mid-level moisture stuck beneath the ridge and mid level PVA will help contribute to todays potential thunderstorm development this afternoon. Looking into Friday, the upper level ridge will position itself over the southwest corner of the US.
Positive H5 height anomalies continue across south-central TX on the eastern portion of the broader ridge, which is expected to gradually begin to amplify over the western CONUS Friday into Friday night. Tomorrow, more of the same, although temperatures may be 1-2 degrees cooler in some locations and dew points also may be a touch lower, which should help limit Heat Index values from reaching Excessive Heat Warning criteria on a widespread basis.
A ridge of high pressure will begin to weaken over the next 36 hours, leading to lowered thicknesses, and this will result in an ever-so-slight cooling.
In general expect that storms will fire within upslope regime across the high plains this afternoon, with steering flow then taking them east or southeastward into this evening.
High pressure aloft and on the surface will dominate the weather pattern through the forecast period. This will allow for warm and muggy conditions to persist with daytime highs in the low to mid 90's expected with heat indices reaching 102-106 degrees, which is just below heat advisory criteria. With high pressure being the dominant feature, we will likely see continued scattered showers and storms each day with the highest chances away from the west coast of Florida over the interior of the state as the showers and storms move from west to east during the day. High pressure ridging will be in place across the waters for the next several days with light winds 10 knots or less and seas less than 2 feet.
Tomorrow, conditions are expected to remain dry despite a warm front lifting across the forecast area.
(This evening through Friday Night) The periphery of surface ridging and upper-level ridging will continue a similar influence on our weather pattern through the next 36 hours as southerly winds continue to maintain a moist atmosphere.
(Tonight through Friday night) Currently we have an upper level ridge sitting over the desert SW to W Texas with a high pressure at the surface that is sitting over the Gulf of Mexico. Thanks to that upper ridge, we will not have to worry about PoPs, however heat will remain a problem.
The wly LLJ will increase to 25 kt with warm, moist advection bringing the 850 MB thermal ridge into the area. Coverage will then expand during the day tomorrow, especially mid to late afternoon into the evening hours as a weak trough approaches the area.
CAMs lack some consensus on coverage though mostly agree on some initial triggering along the Blue Ridge earlier this afternoon, which are starting to see signs of in recent radar analysis, then a bit more organized cluster of storms by this evening into the overnight.
The setup is upper level ridges centered well west and east of the region with a trough extending out of Canada across the upper MS and OH River valleys. That puts the CWA on the eastern periphery of the ridge west of here. Closer to the Gulf Coast, convection has been developing with the region of less subsidence between the 2 aforementioned ridges. With increased subsidence in the western portions of the CWA from the upper ridge, CAMs solutions seem to be fairly well supported which indicate more scattered in coverage and weaker convection west of I-55 and more numerous thunderstorms east of I-55.
(This evening through Friday) An upper level ridge will remain centered across the Desert Southwest through the next 24 hours, resulting in a continuation of very hot temperatures across the region. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop this evening across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains, with this convection tracking southeast on the northeast periphery of the ridge.
Some instability is possible out ahead of the cold front, but may be tempered by increasing smoke aloft and deep layer bulk shear is a bit lower. The cold front will push the rest of the way through Friday night, with precip chances tapering off after sunset but at least some smoke lingering a bit longer.
100 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 (Today through Friday Night) The eastern fringes of the strong mid to upper level high pressure situated over Southwestern CONUS will continue to expand into the South Central CONUS region today and allow for temperatures to heat up a degree or two more than yesterday. The highs will peak in the low 100s this afternoon for inland portions, upper 90s for the southernmost counties, and the low to mid 90s along the Barrier Islands. The high temperatures will be similar to today's, although some locations may be a degree or two lower. The lows during the overnight into early morning hours will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s, keeping us warm and muggy.
Weak upper level trough will keep zonal flow over the region today bringing mostly clear skies and temperatures a few degrees above normal. A few cu may develop over the higher terrain this afternoon.
Ridging remains in place over the desert southwest with overall weak zonal flow over the area. At the surface, high pressure continues over Florida continuing to pump in rich gulf moisture fueling yet another day of early storms. The High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) had 12 hour ensemble mean rainfall of widespread 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 7 inches which is usually a good indicator that there could be some concerns for heavy rainfall. Temperatures will continue to remain in the summertime vibe with highs in the low 90s and lows in the 70s.
1) Advect cooler, drier air into the Northern Plains. However, contrary to what is most commonly the case, with aforementioned cooler and drier air being advected in through the lower levels, instability will actually be on the decline this afternoon.
Storms would strengthen along a theta-e ridge where MLCAPE could top 2000 J/kg.
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 620 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) Currently we have an upper level ridge sitting over the desert SW to W Texas with a high pressure at the surface that is sitting over the Gulf of Mexico. Thanks to that upper ridge, we will not have to worry about PoPs, however heat will remain a problem.
631 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 (This evening through Friday) An upper level ridge will remain centered across the Desert Southwest through the next 24 hours, resulting in a continuation of very hot temperatures across the region. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop this evening across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains, with this convection tracking southeast on the northeast periphery of the ridge.
A second round of storms will impact the Mid-South by midnight as a cold front drops southeast across the region.
736 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 As showers and storms wrap up we can start see temperatures rebound and range from the high 80s in the east and mid 90s in the west. High temperatures will also range from the low 90s in the east to the high 90s in the west. A high pressure centered in the Southwest will help to provide ample heating for instability and moisture with an excess of 4500 j/kg of CAPE in the NE part of the CWA and PWAT values near 2.
749 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 A cold front will continue to push south through the area tonight. A cold front is continuing to sag slowly south across the area this afternoon. Lows will range from the lower 60s northwest to the mid/upper 60s southeast.
937 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 (This evening through Friday Night) The periphery of surface ridging and upper-level ridging will continue a similar influence on our weather pattern through the next 36 hours as southerly winds continue to maintain a moist atmosphere.
It has been a very active evening for the Lower Keys. The 00z KKEY RAOB sampled the atmosphere as storm were propogating down the Lower Keys towards Key West. The Lower Keys have been thoroughly worked over this evening, but the Middle and Upper Keys are still primed for convection. Due to this and the high moisture content, combined with a slight increase in winds that may help to ignite some convection, have decided to keep 50% PoPs for the overnight period. From synopsis, weak high pressure will remain near or just to the north of the Florida Keys coastal waters for the next several days.
High pressure results in the continued dry and hot weather.
410 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023 A few showers have developed across portions of the higher terrain this afternoon, mainly in the eastern Uintas and the northern Colorado mountains. A ridge will begin to amplify over the southwest CONUS which will shift our mid-level flow overhead to the northwest. Behind the wave, slightly cooler air will be ushered into the region which will help to take temperatures down a couple degrees heading into the weekend.
The favorable monsoonal flow that finally brought deeper moisture and a daily chance of thunderstorms to the area will waver as high pressure shifts overhead and northwest of the area. Storms are once again firing over the higher elevations in areas south and east of Tucson. The upper high has continued to drift around the AZ/NM border, so the question remains if the high will shift eastward for more storm activity into the evening hours or stay in place with the same storm activity before shifting westward in the next coming days. As the upper high shifts towards California/Nevada, we begin to dry out and decrease the chances for storm activity.
534 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023 A few showers have developed across portions of the higher terrain this afternoon, mainly in the eastern Uintas and the northern Colorado mountains. A ridge will begin to amplify over the southwest CONUS which will shift our mid-level flow overhead to the northwest. Behind the wave, slightly cooler air will be ushered into the region which will help to take temperatures down a couple degrees heading into the weekend.
Today into this weekend: westward shift of the high is on-going, resulting in decreasing POPs. Highs even for the higher elevations are still forecast to swelter into the 90s to triple digits.
A few thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of southwest PA this evening, with activity focused along the intersection between an outflow boundary from convection over SE OH and northern WV earlier in the day, and a cold front sagging into the area from the northwest. High temps reach the mid-80s for most, with upper 70s to around 80 expected across the higher elevations farther east.
1056 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 A weak cold front will move south of the region Friday afternoon.
Temperatures are slightly warmer this afternoon as high pressure ridging over the Desert Southwest extends westward.
945 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 A cold front will continue to push south through the area tonight. Residual cold front is still draped across the CWA from southwest to northeast at the time of this writing, taking on more stationary front characteristics. However, this will continue to slowly be pushed east during the overnight hours as high pressure works into the area. Overnight lows will range from the lower 60s northwest to the mid/upper 60s southeast.
Given the rain chances and cloud cover, our north zones should remain cooler compared to elsewhere, with highs only getting up into the low-90s. However, given the location of the upper-level ridge, expect upper-90s and low triple digits elsewhere.
Meanwhile, our rain chances will start to increase Friday night and especially on Saturday as an upper trough and surface boundary approach the mid state and finally provide some focusing for all of this moisture and instability.
This is the result of broad upper troughing over much of the northern CONUS.
150 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Weak high pressure builds across the southern Great Lakes tonight and gradually moves east Friday allowing another cold front to approach by Saturday.
The better instability and convergence from the low level jet should remain in NE so not expecting any severe weather with this. Tonight: Northwest flow aloft and weak troughiness continues to support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight, although instability tonight is marginal at best. More than likely we will still see smoke around the area and slightly cooler high temperatures.
A cold front was analyzed over southern Manitoba this morning, and is expected to move through North Dakota late today. Embedded impulses moving over the cold front could produce isolated thunderstorms across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Highs ahead of the approaching cold front are forecast to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The one caveat will be if near-surface smoke ends up much thicker than expected, then we could see highs staying a few degrees cooler than forecast. Breezy, dry, and cooler weather is expected through the weekend, with precipitation chances returning for the work week.
355 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 A weak cold front will move south of the region this afternoon. The next chance for storms arrives Saturday afternoon as low pressure moves northwest of the region. Dry weather is expected tonight with weak ridging aloft as another trough digs into the Midwest. This trough should move east on Saturday, tracking across the Upper Ohio Valley region late in the day through the evening.
However, more importantly is a deepening upper trough anchored over the Great Lakes that will send a series of disturbances through the area over the next several days.
Current dew points are lower compared to this time last night with much of the region currently in the low to mid 40s range. With the infiltration of drier air taking place overnight, expect low temperatures to be a few degrees cooler compared to last night's. Daytime temperatures are anticipated to be 10-15 degrees above average for mid-July across Arizona with record breakers likely as high pressure strengthens above. Highs even for the higher elevations are still forecast to swelter into the 90s to triple digits.
Friday night into Saturday, a cold front is expected to pass through the area Saturday morning from west to east, helping to focus yet another round of showers and thunderstorms.
There is a spread on the timing of this front moving into northern Oklahoma with the high-resolution ARW model bringing the front to Stillwater-Taloga by 00Z, but most models having a later entry into between 01Z-03Z.
1244 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 A weak cold front will move south of the region this afternoon. The next chance for storms arrives Saturday afternoon as low pressure moves northwest of the region. Generally dry weather is expected Friday night with weak ridging aloft as another trough digs into the Midwest. This trough should move east on Saturday, tracking across the Upper Ohio Valley region late in the day through the evening.
/EC/ As showers and storms wrap up we can start see temperatures rebound and range from the high 80s in the east and mid 90s in the west. High temperatures will also range from the low 90s in the east to the high 90s in the west. A high pressure centered in the Southwest will help to provide ample heating for instability and moisture with an excess of 4500 j/kg of CAPE in the NE part of the CWA and PWAT values near 2.
312 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Warm and muggy conditions across the region early this morning, with surface observations showing temps in the lower to mid 70s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Another hot and muggy day is on tap with temperatures once again pushing into the lower 90s along with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s, potentially around 100 degrees in south-central KY.
Highs today will be warmer as they range from the lower 80s across the north to the upper 80s across east- central Wisconsin.
Temperatures tonight will remain in the low 60s north to upper 60s south, with highs for Friday similar to today. Friday nights lows will be cooler in the low 60s north, and may even approach the upper 50s due to the frontal passage.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) New day, same story: the upper level ridge supporting our ongoing heat wave remains generally elongated across the southwestern US as we head into the weekend. While the ridging provides the baseline potential for the very hot weather, it is also the warm lows providing a higher launching point while also limiting any relief for the body to cool off at night. The upper ridge stays roughly the same through Saturday with maybe just a subtle decrease in thickness, but less cloud cover this morning and tonight allow for a bit more overnight cooling than we've seen the past few days. Once again looking at diurnally driven convection both this afternoon and Saturday afternoon, initially forming off the higher terrain, then meandering to the adjacent plains.
Otherwise, it's been mostly clear, warm, and humid morning so far with temperatures holding in the low to mid 70s across the region. The latest guidance indicates the cold pool/outflow will continue to propagate ESE into the Ozarks and eventually the lower Mississippi Valley by early afternoon.
Discussion: The southward sinking trough and westward moving ridge aloft has turned the flow out of the west.
1112 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023 A few showers have developed across portions of the higher terrain this afternoon, mainly in the eastern Uintas and the northern Colorado mountains. A ridge will begin to amplify over the southwest CONUS which will shift our mid-level flow overhead to the northwest. Behind the wave, slightly cooler air will be ushered into the region which will help to take temperatures down a couple degrees heading into the weekend.
Tomorrow, conditions are expected to remain dry despite a warm front lifting across the forecast area. As we move into the second half of the weekend the upper level pattern begins to transition from quasi-zonal to a move amplified pattern with upper level ridging over the western CONUS and troughing through the Great Lakes/Midwest/Ohio River Valley.
An upper level ridge continues to be centered over New Mexico into far west Texas. Elsewhere across the forecast area, a heat advisory remains in effect with highs a few degrees cooler, but still very hot.
This evening, the showers and storms will be likely across the southeast half or so of the CWA where the higher rainfall amounts are projected to be. Ridging to our west, will bring northwest flow to the area.
1227 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 (This evening through Friday) An upper level ridge will remain centered across the Desert Southwest through the next 24 hours, resulting in a continuation of very hot temperatures across the region. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop this evening across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains, with this convection tracking southeast on the northeast periphery of the ridge.
424 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 (Today through Saturday) West/northwest zonal upper flow continues across the FA today with ridging to our west and troughing across central and eastern CONUS.
A broad upper trough is centered over Canada and extends southward over the Central Plains to the East Coast. Upper disturbances are moving over the Central Plains at the base of the trough and providing lift. The upper trough will deepen on Saturday extending to near the Gulf Coast.
WV imagery indicates ridging aloft slowly building across the Intermountain West. CAMs suggest the highest probability for potential thunderstorm development more toward central Kansas as the front pushes through, likely due to more favorable dynamic support aloft with an intensifying jet streaming through northern Kansas. Expect afternoon highs up into the upper 80s/lower 90s(F) with widespread lows tonight down into the 60s(F) with cooler air filtering into western Kansas behind a weak frontal passage.
/20/ (This evening through Friday Night) The periphery of surface ridging and upper-level ridging will continue a similar influence on our weather pattern through the next 36 hours as southerly winds continue to maintain a moist atmosphere.
124 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 A cold front will continue to push south through the area tonight. Residual cold front is still draped across the CWA from southwest to northeast at the time of this writing, taking on more stationary front characteristics. However, this will continue to slowly be pushed east during the overnight hours as high pressure works into the area. Overnight lows will range from the lower 60s northwest to the mid/upper 60s southeast. A weak cold front is expected to move through the Ohio Valley on Saturday bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area.