Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today) A very pronounced upper low can be seen over eastern KT and TN, with slightly drier air moving into northwest AL for the time being. The upper low will begin slowly meandering south today, and positive vorticity advection will support an increase in shower/storm activity from north to south late this morning into the afternoon. With cooler northerly flow continuing over the area, high temperatures will be limited to the upper 70s in the higher terrain and lower 80s elsewhere.
With this system more characteristic of a warm core cyclone, convection displaced from the center of the circulation will continue to diminish in both coverage and intensity with the onset of the nocturnal cooling cycle. However, pockets of light-moderate rain and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms will remain possible throughout the night in the immediate vicinity of the cyclone's center.
258 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Short Term/Marine The persistent dry easterly flow between a Canadian anticyclone and a SE CONUS cyclone continues today, with a slight twist; enough moisture is moving in from the northern periphery of the low to bring a slight chance of afternoon showers across at least the southeast forecast area.
159 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Upper ridge axis will be over the area today then move east tonight, with a southwest flow aloft through the rest of the short term period.
200 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 High pressure will remain in place over New England for much of the week, before exiting to the northeast later this week.
123 AM PDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Seasonably cool temperatures will prevail once again today in the wake of our recent cold front.
1223 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Upper level ridging will remain overhead tonight and Tuesday.
122 AM PDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Well below normal temperatures are expected across the forecast area for the next few days due to low pressure aloft bringing in marine cooled air to the region.
High temperatures on Tuesday should reach the upper 80s to around 90 inland, except a bit cooler north of M-46 and east of US 131 where low to mid 80s are expected.
340 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 A slow moving upper low will meander to our west through midweek before finally lifting north and east by the weekend. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s with lows in the lower to middle 70s. The area will remain unsettled however with the more typical summertime features for the forcing such as the sea breeze and inland Piedmont trough. The higher pops will be in place during the daytime hours as well.
Another day of very hot temperatures is expected across West Central Texas today, as an upper level ridge centered across northern Mexico continues to dominate the weather across the region.
607 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 The mid-week periods will see extension of the Mexican upper ridge northward across the central Plains into the Upper Midwest with a Rex-type block over the eastern conus by Wednesday with upper high across the northern Great Lakes/southern Ontario into southern Quebec and upper low over the Southeast conus. Meanwhile, an elongated upper trof will extend from western Canada across the western conus. For Kansas and the central Plains, the better low level moisture and instability axis will remain situated across a portion of the high Plains and just west of the forecast area. Periodic perturbations in the southwesterly flow on the periphery of the western conus upper trof will spill into the mean ridge over the next couple of days.
Otherwise, it will be another hot day (mid 90s) across the region as upper ridge expands to the northeast.
718 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Aviation The persistent dry easterly flow between a Canadian anticyclone and a SE CONUS cyclone continues today, with a slight twist; enough moisture is moving in from the northern periphery of the low to bring a slight chance of afternoon showers across at least the southeast forecast area.
954 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 This morning continues to remain mostly sunny with temperatures in the mid-80s with afternoon highs forecasted to reach the low to mid 90s. However, it will feel much warmer with heat indices likely to approach, or reach, the triple digits. High temps today and Wednesday will be in the lower 90s, and when combined with dewpoints in the 70s, expect peak heat index values of 100-105 degrees. Overnight low temps will remain mild, ranging from the lower 70s inland to around 80 near the coasts.
* Beyond the forecast - After a brief reprieve with the cool front this coming weekend, temps will heat back up with upper ridging building back in.
Conditions have been quiet this morning as a ridge continues to build over the CWA. Our region will be sandwiched today and tomorrow between a vertically-stacked low pressure system near the Ohio River Valley and a deep trough along the Pacific Coast.
With the low level jet bringing up warmer air this morning and a warm boundary across the east, highs will be in the 90s east of the Missouri River. Models continue to show the higher SRH in the north central, and the machine learning forecasting also has the highest tornado chance in the far north central.
401 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Breezy southerly winds under an upper ridge will see temps rise into the 90s to near 100 degrees again today. A cold front will move into central SD this afternoon then stall through Wednesday. Temperatures will be cooler with more cloud cover and caa behind the front and a collapsing upper ridge. A trough over the west coast will be the dominate weather feature for the first half of the extended.
With temperatures expected to be similar or a degree or two warmer this afternoon an upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning was warranted for these locations. (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Upper ridge centered just south of the Rio Grande extends northward across TX and and NM through the Central Plains to the Great Lakes. Back to the west a trough centered over WA extends down the West Coast. part of this trough will lift NE into Canada while a new low forms Wednesday over CA but the ridge will remain over the area. Expecting highs today to be a degree or so warmer.
552 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 (Today) A very pronounced upper low can be seen over eastern KT and TN, with slightly drier air moving into northwest AL for the time being. The upper low will begin slowly meandering south today, and positive vorticity advection will support an increase in shower/storm activity from north to south late this morning into the afternoon. With cooler northerly flow continuing over the area, high temperatures will be limited to the upper 70s in the higher terrain and lower 80s elsewhere.
Some moisture advection in the low levels will kick in, supporting SCT- BKN cumulus around 5000 ft over SE Mi by afternoon.
Clear to mostly cloudy conditions prevailed early this morning across southeast Arizona under S/SW flow aloft out ahead of upper level trof well to our W/NW.
Key Message: * Dry and comfortably warm The pattern remains blocky/stagnant with a somewhat narrow amplified upper ridge extending from Texas to Ontario, and upper level troughs across the western and eastern CONUS. At the surface, a large expanse of high pressure was noted across the Great Lakes region providing dry easterly low level flow, which has been a rather common occurrence over the past few months.
High temps today and Wednesday will be in the lower 90s, and when combined with dewpoints in the 70s, expect peak heat index values of 100-105 degrees. Overnight low temps will remain mild, ranging from the lower 70s inland to around 80 near the coasts.
619 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Upper ridge centered just south of the Rio Grande extends northward across TX and and NM through the Central Plains to the Great Lakes. Back to the west a trough centered over WA extends down the West Coast. part of this trough will lift NE into Canada while a new low forms Wednesday over CA but the ridge will remain over the area. Expecting highs today to be a degree or so warmer.
655 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 (Today through Wednesday) In the lower levels, we have a stalled boundary situated just SE of a DYA to ANB line. Our welcome break from the rainfall will be short lived thanks to the approaching upper low.
Cooling trends will ease as ridging sets in and warmer temperatures return. The passing of a cold upper level trough has also brought cool temperatures to much of the CWA, with near record setting overnight lows and frost in some areas. The positively tilted axis proceeds eastward with the elongated trough, ushering in an obligatory ridging pattern and negative vorticity as a decrease in wind velocity at observation stations report. The cooler air trend will ease over the next few days as the center of the trough axis exits the area, broadening and increasing the pressure heights. Even over the weekend, after brief ridging, another 500mb cut-off or closed low will approach and bring a renewed chance for thunderstorms and lightning activity.
230 AM PDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Cooler than normal temperatures this week.
Early morning satellite shows general troughing continuing to persist across western CONUS. Breezy to windy conditions will continue to be on the downtrend over the next couple of days, as the more energetic portions of the troughing across western CONUS lifts northward of the region today.
625 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Slightly below normal temperatures will continue across the Mid- South through the end of the workweek as an upper level low pressure system remains in close proximity to the region. Summertime heat should return this weekend as upper level high pressure builds in from the west.
dry conditions will prevail as ridging builds over the western Great Lakes.
A cold front will bring much cooler temperatures today, particularly for northern Utah.
625 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge continues to spin over Mexico with west southwesterly flow aloft. Thus, winds will be fairly light and variable and dewpoints will remain in the mid-60s with temperatures potentially clocking in slightly cooler than anticipated. Thus less than 10 PoPs were maintained given the low potential for showers.
With more substantial cloud cover and rain activity today, temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday with afternoon highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s with a few lower 90s mixed in.
930 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 A slow moving upper low will meander to our west through midweek before finally lifting north and east by the weekend. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s with lows in the lower to middle 70s. The area will remain unsettled however with the more typical summertime features for the forcing such as the sea breeze and inland Piedmont trough. The higher pops will be in place during the daytime hours as well.
Low rain chances and even warmer temps this weekend. Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis showed an upper level low nearly stationary across southern Kentucky. A blocking pattern persisted across the US with upper lows across the northwest US and northeast US. A ridge continued to develop across the southern Plains. This ridge will continue expanding north over the next few days. Today and Tonight: Mid level height rises will occur today as the upper low shifts a little further southeast into Tennessee and the ridge to the west expands north. Highs in the upper 80s are likely with southeast Kansas and western Missouri reaching the lower 90s. Mid to late week: Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the blocking pattern will persist with mid level ridging across the central US.
415 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023 A low pressure tough centered across the Pacific Northwest will maintain cool and unsettled conditions across the area through Wednesday with scattered showers most likely in the afternoon and evening periods.
623 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Breezy southerly winds under an upper ridge will see temps rise into the 90s to near 100 degrees again today. A cold front will move into central SD this afternoon then stall through Wednesday. Temperatures will be cooler with more cloud cover and caa behind the front and a collapsing upper ridge. A trough over the west coast will be the dominate weather feature for the first half of the extended.
On the east side of this boundary is a very warm airmass, with breezy southerly winds and air temperatures already in the lower 80s as of 14 UTC. On the west side exists cooler temperatures and northerly winds, with some scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm across the northwest and north central. With the low level jet bringing up warmer air this morning and a warm boundary across the east, highs will be in the 90s east of the Missouri River. Models continue to show the higher SRH in the north central, and the machine learning forecasting also has the highest tornado chance in the far north central.
846 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 A lingering low pressure system through the end of the week will keep precipitation chances focus east of the Laurel Highlands due to upsloping.
1016 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 High pressure will remain in place over eastern Canada today.
Cooler than normal temperatures and occassional breezy periods will last through the week. Longwave trough positioned over the West will keep the region cool.
Cloud cover and more stable air associated with a southeasterly flow off of the Atlantic will result in cooler temps (70-80F) vs. Some patchy drizzle could occur on the East/Southeast, wind-ward side and crest of the higher ridges. Low temps will range from the mid to upper 50s in most places, to the low and mid 60s in the Southeast. High temps will vary from the mid and upper 60s over Somerset county where some drizzle is possible on the ridges, to the 70s throughout much of the rest of the CWA.
Upper low is farther southeast of the area today vs 24 hours ago, so not expecting much if any cloud cover today through Wednesday. The somewhat higher RH and cooler temps behind the lake breeze will tend to temper the fire wx danger some near the lake. - Izzi Upper-level ridging associated with a Rex Block is expected to still be in place across the Great Lakes at the start of the period, but will be entering a decaying state. Guidance has come into better agreement on how the Rex Block will begin to decay with the general consensus being that the upper low to our south should hold together as it meanders northward towards the end of the week. However, the exact position the low would take remains somewhat in question as some guidance is notably further east with it than others.
515 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Updated Aviation Discussion A low pressure trough centered across the Pacific Northwest will maintain cool and unsettled conditions across the area through Wednesday with scattered showers most likely in the afternoon and evening periods.
The high will bring dry/tranquil conditions to most of us, with isolated thunderstorms possible across the southwest counties near the boundary. Looking aloft, a closed low will be the dominant feature over the southeast United States. The low will fend off a big ridge/heat in the Plains. In fact, the low may actually wobble a bit toward us, and this will lead to slightly cooler temperatures on Wednesday versus today. There is also an outside chance that a couple of thunderstorms might pop up toward the Mississippi River on Wednesday as the low nears.
637 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 A moist pattern, with above normal rainfall chances, and below normal high temperatures, will continue for at least several more days, as an upper level low remains nearly stationary just to our W and NW, with a moist atmosphere remaining in place.
Perhaps most noticeable was a tremendous dry layer in the low- levels between 950-850 mb, in contrast to a more moist profile sampled this morning at nearby MFL. Water vapor imagery reveals cyclonic flow over the Gulf coast states, with ridging and corresponding anticyclonic flow over the western Atlantic.
1141 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 A stationary front will linger over the area this week as low pressure develops to the west. Highs in the lower 80s look on track. Using a blend of MOS, low temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 60s inland to the low 70s along the coast. At the surface, a front extending from low pressure over the Gulf Coast states will linger in the vicinity, although both features will make northward progress during the latter half of the period.
1249 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 The mid-week periods will see extension of the Mexican upper ridge northward across the central Plains into the Upper Midwest with a Rex-type block over the eastern conus by Wednesday with upper high across the northern Great Lakes/southern Ontario into southern Quebec and upper low over the Southeast conus. Meanwhile, an elongated upper trof will extend from western Canada across the western conus. For Kansas and the central Plains, the better low level moisture and instability axis will remain situated across a portion of the high Plains and just west of the forecast area. Periodic perturbations in the southwesterly flow on the periphery of the western conus upper trof will spill into the mean ridge over the next couple of days.
With more substantial cloud cover and rain activity today, temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday with afternoon highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s with a few lower 90s mixed in. A stout trough remains across the Southeastern U. through the work week with repeated disturbances along the base of the trough that will impact our area.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat persists across Deep South Texas - High risk of rip currents today through tomorrow Air temperatures early this afternoon have already climbed into the low-mid 100s most locations west of SPI. Wednesday looks to be almost another carbon copy of today, though model guidance suggests a slighlty more moist (less dry) air mass in place tomorrow afternoon than today as the strong mid-level ridge continues to retrograde westward over northern Mexico. The risk of rip/longshore currents along the Lower Texas Coast will be High tonight through Wednesday night.
146 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Dew points in the lower 60s delineate higher low-level moisture advecting in this afternoon with diurnal cumulus developing quickly as the mixed layer reaches maturity.
0-6 km bulk shear values range from 35-45 knots today, with the higher values over coastal Alabama and extreme southeast Mississippi where the best MLCAPE values and deep layer moisture are present. Shear values drop off tonight to 20-25 knots with a modest increase to 20-30 knots on Wednesday, with the higher values generally over coastal Alabama and extreme southeast Mississippi.
Cooler than normal temperatures and occasional breezy periods will last through the week. A blocking pattern will remain in place through much of the forecast period featuring a building high across Mexico/Texas with a trough residing across the west coast of the US.
211 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023 With a strong low pressure trough over Washington State, Oregon, and Idaho, and the jet stream strengthening around the base of that trough, the weather pattern remains favorable for SSW to NNE bands of precipitation moving through our CWA this afternoon and evening.
141 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Visible satellite imagery depicts developing cumulus across parts of Indiana along the northern flanks of an expansive cyclonic upper low pinwheeling across the Tennessee River Valley.
1032 AM PDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Below normal temperatures are expected across the forecast area for the next few days due to low pressure aloft bringing in marine cooled air to the region.
Model guidance advertises a notable climb in dewpoints along an east to west oriented axis in this region and this is being borne out by dewpoints in the low 60s across part of far southeast Lower and near Saginaw Bay. The persistent dry easterly flow between a Canadian anticyclone and a SE CONUS cyclone continues today, with a slight twist; enough moisture is moving in from the northern periphery of the low to bring a slight chance of afternoon showers across at least the southeast forecast area.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper trough over the Pacific northwest will be the main weather features impacting northeast Montana through the week. The remainder to the week will see the Pacific Northwest upper trough elongate and split although remain over the west. The open trough over the north will slowly move from western to central Canada, while a closed low develops over California and lifts through the Great Basin.
Slightly below normal temperatures will continue across the Mid- South through the end of the workweek as an upper level low pressure system remains in close proximity to the region.
Despite prevailing easterly flow, dewpoints have been able to rise into the lower 60s for most areas this afternoon, with even a couple mid 60s readings out there making it feel more on the humid side with high temps peaking in the low/mid 80s. Cloud cover rapidly diminishes overnight with stable conditions overhead and high cloud from an upper-level trough over the Tennessee Valley remaining far enough to the south/southeast. A persistent light easterly wind will keep low temps in the low/mid 60s for most outside of the upper 50s for the interior Thumb.
Otherwise not looking at exorbitant changes from the morning package as we remain on track for a breezy day with widespread slight chance to chance of showers today, receding overnight as low pressure departs the region.
145 PM PDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Slight warming continues today and Wednesday in advance of a low pressure system approaching the West Coast.
An upper level low remains sandwiched between accompanying highs on either sides of the troughing across the southeastern US. High temps today and Wednesday will be in the low to mid 90s, and with dewpoints in the 70s, expect the potential for heat indices to approach values of 100-105 degrees. Overnight low temps will remain mild, ranging from the lower 70s inland to around 80 near the coasts.
231 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Summary: The Northland remains under the influence of a blocking pattern with upper level riding overhead suppressing rain chances and allowing for above normal temperatures.
850mb temps do seem just a touch cooler than yesterday, but we should have no trouble once again warming well into the 90s to around 100 degrees. Breezy southerly winds under an upper ridge will see temps rise into the 90s to near 100 degrees again today. A cold front will move into central SD this afternoon then stall through Wednesday. Temperatures will be cooler with more cloud cover and caa behind the front and a collapsing upper ridge. A trough over the west coast will be the dominate weather feature for the first half of the extended.
Walker (Today and tonight) The upper ridge continues to spin over Mexico with west southwesterly flow aloft. Thus, winds will be fairly light and variable and dewpoints will remain in the mid-60s with temperatures potentially clocking in slightly cooler than anticipated. Thus less than 10 PoPs were maintained given the low potential for showers.
Persistent blocking pattern remains, with high pressure in the Great Lakes Region, leading to low level easterly flow into the area. Tonight, given clear skies and light winds, a large diurnal change is expected, with most going from near 90 today to the low 60s.
High pressure just off the New England coast will continue to extend ridging back toward upper MI.
Upper closed low continues to remain over the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and will slowly drift southeastward into Georgia by Wednesday. The upper low will be centered over Georgia on Wednesday, with some drier air building over the western portions of the area.
Stratus may build in as easterly winds advect the richest moisture westward into the higher terrain of our western zones late tonight.