Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The most notable one extends from a low over northeast Kansas southeastward into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois which separates most of the rain cooled air from today from the slightly warmer and more humid air over southern Missouri. The upper trough over the northern Plains is expected to approach the area this evening which will act to increase lift and bring a cold front into the area which should cause an increase in showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front late this afternoon and this evening. Storms will move out of the area by mid morning Monday with clearing during the afternoon as the upper trough will be slower to lift out.
Monday will be wet across the area with temperatures cooler than today 3. Discussion: Strong momentum response to the deepening upper level low will bring ascent to the area later tonight into the early morning hours. At the same time, a cold front moves into the area from the west and could lead to a squeeze play for ascent in the AM tomorrow. The strong ascent with the jet and closed low moving into area will lead to a little cooler temps aloft. CAMs have cells developing in this area along and ahead of the cold front interacting with the warm front area. Upper low to start the period will lead to showers in Monday evening.
Upper level ridge axis remains across the area, although it does shift east just a little. Models are showing some small decrease in 850MB temperatures this afternoon, so the NBM which has generally been trending a degree or two cooler today looks reasonable. Cold front to the north will not have an affect today, but will start tonight as it slides into the Big Country after midnight. (Monday night through next Sunday) On Monday evening, the cold front is forecast to be across our southern counties, eventually becoming diffuse. Gusty northeast winds along with slightly cooler temperatures are forecast behind the front. Overnight lows will be in the mid upper 60s to lower 70s across the northern half of the area, and the low to mid 70s across the southern half of the area.
1129 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 A cold front is currently dropping south across the area, associated with a Canadian trough pushing into the northern Great Plains. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today east of the Divide, with highs peaking in the 60s and 70s.
A change in weather patterns will occur on Monday as a cold front crosses the region.
Convection over the eastern Plains associated with a short wave trough will spread across Missouri into Illinois through the day. The trailing cold front will move into Missouri this evening forcing another round of convection ahead of it. Current indications are that the majority of the convection will be well ahead of the front tonight, driven more by low level moisture convergence on the low level jet ahead of the trough.
113 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Most recent Water Vapor and upper air analysis shows the upper closed low affecting our region centered over North dakota this afternoon, with strong upper ridge over the west coast.
(This evening through Monday) The main feature in the short term will be a cold front arriving from the north this evening, serving as a focus for overnight convection and impacting ongoing fires with a wind shift. Highs will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler across the forecast area, due to cooler air pouring in behind the cold front.
224 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 A cold front will pass across the area this evening. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the high plains. An upper level ridge will begin to expand eastward by mid-week and become entrenched by the weekend. This ridge could be very persistent and even if the center of the ridge moves east of our area later in August, it will probably still be hot. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of a pre-frontal trough this afternoon; and given the deep layer shear, these could be severe with damaging wind, along with small to marginally severe hail.
A closed upper low continues to rotate through the forecast area this afternoon, with water vapor imagery showing it centered in south central North Dakota as of 19 UTC. Widespread stratiform rain continued along the east side of the low across the james River Valley and into eastern North Dakota, while more convective showers were developing in central and parts of western North Dakota. A dry slot was evident on water vapor imagery extending from western South Dakota into southern North Dakota which could be preventing more widespread precipitation, but there are still scattered showers rotating around the upper low. Some patchy fog is possible, mainly across central North Dakota, with some of the high res models advertising this potential and forecast soundings showing saturation at the surface.
1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Another wave of showers and thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front makes its way across central and southeastern Illinois. Today there is a chance for another round of showers and thunderstorms after the noon hour as a second cold front moves through central and southeaster Illinois through the day. Temperatures also turn more seasonably cooler after the frontal passage. Winds will be light/variable much of the TAF duration, but will shift to the west late Monday morning as a cold front passes by.
A push of moisture from the south has kept temperatures at or below normal this morning making the 24 hour change in low temperatures 2-3 degrees F cooler than yesterday morning. High temperatures will be at or slightly above normal as the high temperature for Tucson is forecasted to be 100F while the climatological normal for today is 99F. The high pressure is still pushing towards Arizona with a low off the southern California coast. As the high pressure continues to move westward, it will slowly turn off the moisture and suppressing storm development. The higher terrain and a few locations may see some afternoon storms through the rest of the week.
Convection still looks to be focused in the south for the afternoon/evening based on a lot of the high-res model guidance. With the recent wet ground daytime temperatures warming into the lower 90s south to lower 80s north look reasonable which is near normal for this time of year.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening as a low pressure system sits over southern California.
Any minor changes to the forecast numbers over the next several days were unfortunately to be hotter and drier as there is higher confidence in the upper level ridge extending north into southern Canada.
A 500mb trough across the central plains will move towards Wisconsin. On Monday, clouds and rain will keep temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.
1052 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Current surface analysis shows cold front moving southeast across the area, now located from southern portions of northeast WY and the Black Hills area to north central SD, with gusty north- northwest winds developing behind it. Scattered showers and a bit of thunder accompany the trough from far northeast WY to northwest SD and the Black Hills area. A unsettled, cool, and windy day is in store as the upper trough tracks southeast across the northern Plains. Highs will only be in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the Plains, cooler over the higher Black Hills. The weather beyond today looks to be rather quiet, with a more typical late summer pattern for mid to late week, as ridging builds over the western US and warmer air returns.
Hi-Res guidance is still highlighting Yavapai County to see some of the greater storm coverage today, which does line up with some of the higher dew points we are seeing this morning as well. Likewise, better forcing will be available as the high to our east shifts closer.
- Cooler to begin the work week before warming up into the weekend. A trough currently over the Dakotas continues its southeastward progression this afternoon with an associated surface cold front located across central/eastern Nebraska into western Kansas. To add to the complexity, several outflow boundaries remain parked across the area along with a warm front/differential heating boundary encroaching on the I-35 corridor. Additional convection is expected along the cold front, but lesser CAPE in this area leads to uncertainty in how robust convection will be and how much of the forecast area will be impacted. Any storms clear the area overnight as northwest flow ushers in cooler and drier air to begin the work week. Some guidance indicates stratus building into northeast Kansas during the daytime hours which could keep temperatures cooler depending on how far southwest these clouds reach.
Ridging remains continues to dominate the weather pattern resulting in persistent hot temperatures across the area. By mid-week, models are suggesting a more SW flow while a trough stretches across Eastern U. and its associated cold front moves into the N Gulf coast before stalling. High pressure continues to in control over the Gulf waters with light southerly winds for the overnight period. Showers and storms over the waters will increase in showers and storms over the waters is expected during the week as moisture gradually increases over the region in advance of a cold front approaching the waters mid to late week.
A strong upper ridge over the Southern Great Plains and Southeast States will persist through noon Monday. The northern portion of the ridge will then begin to breakdown in the afternoon as an upper trough over the northern and central Great Plains moves eastward toward the Mississippi River.
A closed 500 mb low will sink south into the upper Missouri Valley tonight, while a cold front moves southeast into the lower Ohio Valley by 12z Monday. The high-res cam models have been indicating a corridor of very heavy rainfall somewhere across southern Missouri and southern Illinois into northwest KY and/or sw Indiana. The combination of increasing shear associated with the upper low, and strengthening forcing ahead of the cold front, could pose a risk of organized storm structures tonight despite relatively low instability for late summer.
1022 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 For the short term period, below average temperatures will be seen by most of the area as a cold front moves through during the day today. The forecast then calls for it to continue to move southeast with most of the Tri-State area in the wake of the cold front by the noon hour. With drier and cooler air advecting in and winds lightening as the pressure gradient weakens, cooler lows are forecasted with a few 40's possible near the Tri-State border. Temperatures will undergo a couple of warming trends before and after a cold front mid-week.
(Rest of today through Monday) The northern Caribbean trough will continue moving through the region today and bringing tropical moisture with it. The trough begins to move out of the area overnight and with it, enters drier air. Therefore, tomorrow will be slightly warmer.
136 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 A pleasant day across the state today as the cold front brings in milder conditions. All winds will be decreasing around sunrise Monday, with light and variable winds through the day under high pressure. As the passing trough and front continue east, stronger ridging builds northward along the Rockies, with a return to deep summertime heat through the upcoming week.
An upper level low pressure over northwestern SD is noted on watervapor this afternoon. This low pressure will slide to the southeast just along southwestern portion of the CWA. As this low pressure pivots precipitation will wrap around the northern and eastern portion of the low bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms south of a line from Brainerd to Cloquet to Ashland. As the upper level low pressure moves to the east, an upper level ridge will build in.
There is some discrepancy as the Euro places the ridge axis higher than the GFS. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow with afternoon highs forecasted to peak in the low 100s across central Mississippi.
A quasi-stationary inverted trough has remained oriented from northeast to southwest from the Ten Thousand Islands to southwest of the Dry Tortugas for pretty much the last 12 hours. Despite the winds, island communities are seeing temperatures in the lower 90s with dew points in the upper 70s to lower 80s, making for heat index values between 106 to 111. Given our location in relation to the center of the high this also means that winds will typically tend to peak overnight and lull during the day.
A few lightning strikes noted in east east of Fargo/GF where temps did reach the low-mid 70s earlier and CAPE values reached the 500-700 j/kg range. Tonight will see rain chances gradually diminish as the upper low moves southeast with last to see rain end being west central MN late tonight.
1257 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) Hot and humid conditions will persist across much of the state today as H500 ridging remains just to the south. At the sfc, a cold front will be making similar progress southeastward across Missouri. Ahead of the cold front another hot and humid day is expected across at least the southern half of the state. The front should clear much of the area by Monday evening with drier air and cooler temperatures building in.
As we head into tomorrow, ensemble guidance shows a broad area of high pressure building over the Four Corners region, and then expanding westward slightly through the week.
These showers were occurring in unstable cyclonic flow from the upper low over the western Dakotas border. Arthur Blocking pattern persists along the west coast through late week, keeping a general northwest flow pattern over the Northern Rockies, and pushing significant systems well east into the plains.
Monday will bring a slight pattern shift as a weak mid-level perturbation moves under the ridge bringing an increase in surface moisture and instability to the region, with PWAT values reaching about 2" in eastern portions of the CWA. Broad subsidence from the ridge that remains centered over eastern TX will work to tamper additional instability brought by this system. Temperatures are expected to be a couple degrees cooler Monday, however the increased humidity will likely necessitate another Heat Advisory with heat index values forecast to reach 111-115 over most of the CWA. Conditions tomorrow night will be similar to what we have been seeing the past few nights, possibly a degree cooler.
A robust/persistent line of strong to severe thunderstorms tracked across east central Wyoming & the northern Nebraska Panhandle over night in association w/ the cold frontal passage. Isolated to widely scattered rain showers can be expected post-fropa with potential for pockets of light drizzle along the Pine Ridge during the AM hours with the initial moist upslope behind the front. Otherwise, much cooler for today as H7 temperatures continue to plunge to between +4 and +8 C over the CWA through 00z this evening. Very little threat for precipitation after today as upper-level ridging and associated subsidence slowly builds into the region.
Will maintain going heat headlines with the high dewpoints still in place over the region.
Some of the high resolution models suggest some weak development at least into the urban corridor until 01z, but it should taper off fairly quickly this evening.
Uncertainty remains in exactly what locations will see the highest amounts, but 2-3 inches still remain within the realm of possibilities for a lucky few.
258 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Low pressure will cross the region today through early tonight drawing an occluded front through. High pressure will cross the region Monday.
At the surface, a low pressure center is analyzed along the borders of Spink and Beadle counties with an occluded front/inverted surface trof extending up toward Sisseton and on up into eastern North Dakota. The primary concern through late this afternoon is if/when afternoon- heating-aided thunderstorms develop along/south of this warm front and cross over it, moving east-northeast, they could pick up on the combination of available low level and deep layer shear in play to produce funnel clouds, or perhaps even a few brief small tornadoes.
Mid-level moisture and instability ahead of a weak cut-off low pressure system anchored along the southern CA coast will lead to a 20-40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in Nye County. The aforementioned low slowly retrogrades to the west-northwest through the day Monday, while a strong upper ridge remains over the southern Plains. Moisture is expected to move through the western periphery of the ridge into northwestern NV.
142 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Overview: Flow aloft (over the Tri-State area) will veer from W to NW in this period as an upper level low (and associated 850 mb low) -- presently centered invof the central SD/ND border -- tracks southeastward to Sioux Falls (tonight) and eastward to Davenport (Monday). and an upper level ridge builds/amplifies over the 4-Corners. Modest /~1022 mb/ high pressure, characterized by 850 mb temps ~12-15C, will build SE-ESE into the Tri-State this evening and overnight. and an increasingly subsident upper level pattern (as the aforementioned upper low progresses eastward to the Great Lakes and a ridge amplifies invof the 4-Corners). Temperatures will undergo a couple of warming trends before and after a cold front mid-week.
* Expect a brief cool down in temperatures on Monday as cooler air moves in behind an exiting cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows an area of low pressure circulating over the Dakotas at this hour. A cold front will continue to move across the region this afternoon and evening, kicking off showers and a few thunderstorms. Expect a fairly nice cool down Monday as the front exits the region and cooler air filters in. High temperatures will range from the mid-70s in the northeastern part of the Hastings forecast area to the low 80s in north central Kansas. We will be coming under northwest flow as a ridge over the western CONUS pushes nudges east, and the exiting closed low moves over the Great Lakes region.
233 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 A cold front was bisecting northwest Kansas early this afternoon where northwest winds were gusting over 30 knots. Although this mid-lvl waa is progged to diminish in areal coverage we may see it continue impacting southern KS and southeast KS through the evening hours before the mid/upper trough axis sweeps across the area. Afternoon values are expected to range from the upper 80s in far southeast KS to the lower 90s in central KS. The subtropical ridge will overspread the region towards the end of the week and into the weekend bringing hot and dry weather back to the Great Plains. Otherwise, a better chance for organized strong to severe convection is expected to develop along a strong cold front late this afternoon through early tonight.
(This evening through Monday night) A cold front was moving into the Oklahoma Panhandle early this afternoon. More showers along with a few thunderstorms are expected to continue overnight as the Panhandles remain in a diffluent pattern aloft in the right entrance region of the jet rounding the upper trough swinging through the upper Midwest. High temperatures will be much cooler on Monday behind the front.
1043 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Another wave of showers and thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front makes its way across central and southeastern Illinois. A stationary front is draped over the southern portions of the state (somewhere near or south of a Flora to Lawrenceville line) and should lift northward as a warm front later this afternoon, which may allow low 70s dewpoints to lift back northward as a result. NMA Today there is a chance for another round of showers and thunderstorms after the noon hour as a second cold front moves through central and southeaster Illinois through the day. Temperatures also turn more seasonably cooler after the frontal passage.
This low will drag a cold front through Missouri at the same time that a warm front begins to push north from central Arkansas. Flooding Risk: There is a flooding risk with these storms tonight as training looks likely along the warm front. Once this Gulf moisture meets the west to east oriented warm front over southern Missouri, backbuilding storms are expected to form over southeastern Kansas and move east into southwestern Missouri along the front.
An upper level low pressure over northwestern SD is noted on water vapor this afternoon. This low pressure will slide to the southeast just along southwestern portion of the CWA. As this low pressure pivots precipitation will wrap around the northern and eastern portion of the low bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms south of a line from Brainerd to Cloquet to Ashland. As the upper level low pressure moves to the east, an upper level ridge will build in.
Currently - The remnants of a lower level trough has finally lifted northwestward out of our forecast area. This is allowing Atlantic ridging to nose a bit further westward across Florida. With trough's departure, the lower levels have dried out some and convective forcing has diminished. Short Term Update - Through the overnight period, the Keys will be embedded within the far southwestern fringe of the Atlantic Ridge. Drier air will persist through the lower levels. Atlantic ridging building westward across Florida will result in gentle mostly southeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
An upper ridge will continue to expand into the region for dry conditions and a warming trend. High temperatures on Monday will be in the 90s throughout the lower valleys.
Otherwise, the forecast is still on track with the timing of the cold front. Currently moving across Kansas, the aforementioned cold front will move into the CWA by the morning producing more thunderstorms and showers. A change in weather patterns will occur on Monday as a cold front crosses the region.
741 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Low pressure will cross the region today through early tonight drawing an occluded front through. High pressure will cross the region Monday.
The highest chances should remain near the coast and increase area-wide into the afternoon hours.
710 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 (This evening through Monday night) A cold front was moving into the Oklahoma Panhandle early this afternoon. More showers along with a few thunderstorms are expected to continue overnight as the Panhandles remain in a diffluent pattern aloft in the right entrance region of the jet rounding the upper trough swinging through the upper Midwest. High temperatures will be much cooler on Monday behind the front.
A cold front will pass across the area this evening. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the high plains. An upper level ridge will begin to expand eastward by mid-week and become entrenched by the weekend. This ridge could be very persistent and even if the center of the ridge moves east of our area later in August, it will probably still be hot. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of a pre-frontal trough this afternoon; and given the deep layer shear, these could be severe with damaging wind, along with small to marginally severe hail.
Otherwise, expect a warm/muggy night as lows will remain in the mid to perhaps upper 70s across portions of north Alabama and in the low/mid 70s in southern middle Tennessee.
504 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 A pleasant day across the state today as the cold front brings in milder conditions. All winds will be decreasing around sunrise Monday, with light and variable winds through the day under high pressure. As the passing trough and front continue east, stronger ridging builds northward along the Rockies, with a return to deep summertime heat through the upcoming week.
Satellite obs show the upper low now pushing south-southeast through western South Dakota, which should continue to pull precipitation southward through the rest of the evening and overnight. A few lightning strikes noted in east east of Fargo/GF where temps did reach the low-mid 70s earlier and CAPE values reached the 500-700 j/kg range. Tonight will see rain chances gradually diminish as the upper low moves southeast with last to see rain end being west central MN late tonight.