Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1226 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Much of the same for the last day of July and first day of August as the Summer 598dm ridge has centered itself once again over the northern portions of the Texas. Expect near or slightly above normal heat which ranges from 96 at BRO to 100 at MFE and the lower 100s farther west. Our atmosphere is shown to dry out through Tuesday as the ridge becomes anchored in place the first half of this week.
NW flow continues to dominate weather patterns as the ridge continues to be centered just west of the region.
High pressure nudges closer to our region late week with above average temperatures expected by the weekend. Marine layer depth of about 1,200 feet this morning and will likely see some deepening through the week as a weak trough remains nearly stationary upstream.
A large upper high is centered over the Red River Valley, and will remain in place through Tuesday.
158 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Upper-level analysis shows broad ridging over the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with afternoon convection popping up over the Rockies.
300 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Cooler high pressure builds in behind a cold front through mid week. The next cold front and trough approaches at the end of the week.
This has kept temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler with readings currently in the mid 80s for areas north of I-70. Coupling in dew point values in the 60s to low 70s is resulting in heat index values from the upper 90s to the low 100s.
Pattern change starts this weekend which will start to bring in some slightly cooler temperatures and more widespread rain chances.
955 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Satellite imagery shows upper level ridge over the area with monsoonal flow spreading moisture in the southwest flow extending into south central MT. JKL Satellite imagery showed an upper ridge axis over eastern Montana while monsoonal flow pushed mid level moisture up from the southwest into the Rockies.
This stable low level air coupled with a bit of an upper level ridge in place should keep conditions mainly dry tonight.
Mid-level ridge is currently placed over North Central Texas leading to very little rain chances over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Right now there is an SPS in effect for the high heat indices that are expected through this afternoon and early evening.
High pressure slowly passes through the north and into the Great Lakes Region, as a weak wave passes through and pushes it out. Upper ridge starts to build over the Central Plains, with a stationary boundary draped from southern Nebraska and through central Missouri. Current forecast brings temperatures into the low-mid 80s, with comfortable humidity.
Mid-level troughing remains over the northeast Gulf of Mexico keeping a predominant WSW onshore flow over the region for today and tomorrow.
209 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 After patchy morning fog, mainly dry weather is expected through mid week under high pressure. Rain chances return by the end of the work week with a crossing cold front. Low temps tonight dip into the low to mid 50s.
Southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee have cooler temperatures late this morning. in the lower 70s compared to the more sunny areas in central east and southeast Tennessee counties where lower 80s are common. A drier airmass will filter south with dew points dropping from near 70 this morning to the lower to mid 60s later today with winds becoming north to northwest. Chattanooga should be the warmest location, in the lower 90s but most locations will only be in the 80s. Heat index values should only be in the lower to mid 90s central and southern Tennessee Valley. Slightly cooler and drier weather today. This weak boundary will help turn winds more northerly and funnel in drier air slowly dropping dew points into the lower 60s by the afternoon. Temperatures overnight will be several degrees cooler with the drier air as well.
Strong mid to upper level ridge will prevail through the next few days, resulting in little to no rain chances along with very dangerous heat conditions. The high temperatures later today will peak at 100 to 105 degrees over much of the inland portions and in the mid 90s along the southernmost areas and Barrier Islands.
148 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 A cold front will cross the region today.
/ISSUED 308 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023/ The Northern Rockies will remain under a southwest flow aloft today and Tuesday, with the upper-level ridge axis to the east, and a trough to the west.
136 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Cooler and drier through mid week. Key Points: * Drier and slightly cooler temperatures to start the week. Starting off this period for Tuesday, an upper level trough pushes off to the east allowing northerly flow to dominate subsequently promoting settled weather for the day with no precipitation expected.
1125 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Another hot day is in store today as the core of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere sits over the Central and Southern Plains today. During the afternoon hours, an area of low pressure is expected to develop on the lee side of the Rockies. Tomorrow, the area of high pressure is expected to be nudged south over Oklahoma and Texas. as the pronounced upper level ridge over the central CONUS flattens/ deamplifies (late this week). as deamplification of the central CONUS ridge commences.
1215 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Today and tonight) The heat creeps up today with the arrival of a broad upper high from northern New Mexico. Water vapor imagery captured a NW-SE axis of deeper drying/subsidence from ABQ-LBB which should undergo little change as the high drifts over swrn OK by tonight.
201 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 The cooler conditions will continue through much of the work week.
The strong ridge of high pressure remains in place, with small, almost imperceptible disturbances riding up and around the ridge axis.
Even though high temperatures today will still be very hot, due to the lower moisture content of the airmass, heat indices are now expected to range from about 98 to 104 degrees this afternoon.
This looks very marginal at best with no real focus for any forcing and the synoptic ridge building back in slowly.
Cooler again Tuesday. A much drier airmass lies over the region today with dew points already in the lower to mid 60s. Lows tonight will be cooler than this morning in the lower to mid 60s and a few places in the upper 50s.
204 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 An upper level disturbance and a weak cold front will bring some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. High pressure builds back by mid-week with persistent below average temperatures, comfortable humidity levels, and sunny and fair weather. We retooled the PoPs and weather based on trends and kept the higher PoPs from the Capital Region and the Mass Pike northward.
Better chances will exist late tonight-early tmrw, as the LLJ strengthens across the warm sector upon warm frontogenesis to our west. This will peak pops across the Ozarks/SEMO, with smaller chances the farther east you go away from the warm front. A similar scenario then unfolds in the ensuing 24 hour period, with a brief late day lull followed by another ridge topping ripple of energy that rides southeastward/across the PAH FA overtop the aforementioned warm frontal boundary.
At the mid-lvls the eastern US trough has created a weakness over our area between the Central US ridge and the western Atlantic ridge.
1116 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Currently,NW flow dominates the Mid-South as the upper ridge remains located on the OK/TX border.
226 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Cooler and drier through mid week. Key Points: * Drier and slightly cooler temperatures to start the week. Dry conditions through the Lower Ohio Valley into the Middle Ohio Valley will make for tough sledding for any ridge riding convection originating over the Northern Plains to make it anywhere near us.
351 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 A cold front crossing the area today exits later tonight.
The highest values will be west of where the cloud cover and thunderstorms develop overnight. Discussion: Pronounced ridging remains in place this week across the western half of the CONUS. Today the ridge axis runs from the Southern Plains to the northern Rockies. The ridge axis shifts eastward by at least a few counties by tomorrow. West of the stationary front, a warmer boundary layer should set up across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with 850mb temperatures between 24-28 C.
These clouds should gradually dissipate as we head through the afternoon and evening hours, though a few mid-to-high level clouds from a disturbance moving through the lower Missouri Valley may stream across areas west of Interstate 65. Tonight, dry NW flow aloft will continue across our region as we remain sandwiched in between upper-level ridging over the southern Plains and troughing along the east coast of the US. At the surface, high pressure will remain just north of the Ohio Valley, sliding gradually eastward overnight into tomorrow morning. Pattern change will come midweek, as high pressure bringing us the dry conditions today and Tuesday will shift eastward and start bringing us some more moisture on the backside.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower 80s, and a little cooler near Lake Michigan.
1002 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Issued 1001 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023) Quiet conditions are still expected today as high pressure dominates southern WI.
* Severe weather potential low overall, but a few periods of isolated heavy rains are possible * No extremes, but seasonally high temps and/or humidity through the work week Our pattern will undergo some changes through the period with a gradual transition from central CONUS ridging to more zonal flow and northern stream influences. Beyond this there may be a relative lull later Wed into the end of the work week, but models are suggesting some northern stream short wave maturation around Fri or Sat with a leading surge of theta-e advection aloft followed by the passage of a surface system and either a front or inverted trough providing additional low level focus.
106 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Today and tonight) Another round of hot and dry conditions are expected today with strong high pressure aloft across much of the area.
(Tonight) Tonight will be uneventful, weather-wise, with mostly clear skies and morning lows falling into the lower/middle 60s E and upper 60s/near 70 W. Thanks to some drier air filtering into the area in the wake of the recently departed cold front from yesterday, patchy fog is expected to be less of an occurrence Tuesday morning than it was this morning.
(Through Tuesday) The region remains sandwiched between a strong, persistent ridge nosing in from the west and a broad trough with its axis centered along the Eastern Seaboard. The spotty nature of the higher-end values precludes issuing a Heat Advisory at this time. Strong daytime instability coupled with some forced ascent seabreezes, the aforementioned trough, and slightly ehnahced mid-level winds (25-30 kts) will be supportive of an isolated severe weather threat.
(Thru Tonight) H5 ridge center to slide overhead tonight into Tuesday.
315 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through midweek, leading to dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. A warmer and more humid airmass will return toward the end of the workweek into the weekend, bringing with it renewed chances for showers and storms. Certainly would not be surprised at all to see a few sheltered locales, especially in nrn/ern stretches of the ILN FA to dip into the lower 50s by daybreak Tuesday. Tuesday/Tuesday night may end up being a carbon copy of today/tonight, with daytime temps perhaps a degree or two warmer on Tuesday and slightly more cloud cover Tuesday night. This period will be characterized - as it has been most of the recent weeks - by near to below normal temperatures as episodes of eastern Canada/eastern US troughing keep any significant heat at bay.
105 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 After patchy morning fog, mainly dry weather is expected through mid week under high pressure. Rain chances return by the end of the work week with a crossing cold front. The region will be on the western side of the upper trough, with NW flow aloft. Generally dry weather and near seasonable temperatures are expected, through there could be an isolated shower east of a FKL-IDI line Tuesday as weak vorticity advection rotates through the main trough.
Today and tonight: The current pattern is characterized by perturbed northerly flow aloft around an upper trough along the East Coast with a weak and somewhat diffuse stationary surface front extending from the Mid South to the Central Gulf Coast. 5" even as surface dewpoints remain in the low 70s.
Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower to middle 60s, while highs on Tuesday top out in the middle to upper 80s. while high pressure remains anchored over the Great Lakes. Barnes Prominent upper ridge centered over the southern Plains will edge eastward over the next couple of days: however, its progress will be suppressed by a deep low over Quebec.
459 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Upper-level analysis shows broad ridging over the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with afternoon convection popping up over the Rockies.
816 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will taper off this evening as a cold front drops southward.
Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower to middle 60s, while highs on Tuesday top out in the middle to upper 80s. High pressure is centered over Michigan this evening and will continue to result in fair weather across central Illinois overnight. Temperatures are on track to fall into the lower to mid 60s overnight. while high pressure remains anchored over the Great Lakes. Barnes Prominent upper ridge centered over the southern Plains will edge eastward over the next couple of days: however, its progress will be suppressed by a deep low over Quebec.
Throughout the island chain, temperatures ranged from the low to mid 90s. A weak Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) continues to meander near the Bahamas. Over the next several hours and late tonight, anticipate partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the lower 80s and southeast winds around 5 mph. From synopsis, weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward across the Bahamas and into South Florida and the Keys will maintain light mainly easterly breezes across the Keys coastal waters through the week.
The weather pattern is expected to remain fairly persistent over the next several days with the trough over the eastern Pacific and the ridge over the Great Basin and Rockies.
742 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Through Tuesday) The region remains sandwiched between a strong, persistent ridge nosing in from the west and a broad trough with its axis centered along the Eastern Seaboard. The spotty nature of the higher-end values precludes issuing a Heat Advisory at this time. Strong daytime instability coupled with some forced ascent seabreezes, the aforementioned trough, and slightly enhanced mid-level winds (25-30 kts) will be supportive of an isolated severe weather threat.
There is a a decaying MCS to our northwest that may bring additional cloud cover, which could inhibit more dense fog development and keep low temperatures warmer overnight.
625 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues As an upper-level ridge continues to have a strangle hold over South Texas, hot and humid conditions are expected to continue. Heat index values are expected to be a degree or two warmer than today resulting in more of an area requiring a heat advisory, but due to low confidence in the dew point forecast for tomorrow, opted not to issue an advisory at this time and have the next forecast shift overnight reevaluate after the latest model run.
At this time, potential seems slim and will assess removing the low end slight chance PoPs later this evening. This looks very marginal at best with no real focus for any forcing and the synoptic ridge building back in slowly.
High Impact Weather Potential: Low Pattern Synopsis: Longwave troughing will continue to churn over eastern Canada and portions of the Great Lakes/New England through tonight as upstream ridging amplifies across much of the CONUS west of the Mississippi River. Some mid cloud overnight may work to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than previously anticipated with forecast lows remaining in the low to mid 50s across the area.
Strong upper ridge will maintain our heatwave into Tuesday. Although expecting hotter temperatures for Tuesday, could see a return of cirrus dirtying up the ridge in the afternoon from overnight convection across the Midwest Region resulting in uneven heating.
620 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Tonight) Tonight will be uneventful, weather-wise, with mostly clear skies and morning lows falling into the lower/middle 60s E and upper 60s/near 70 W. Thanks to some drier air filtering into the area in the wake of the recently departed cold front from yesterday, patchy fog is expected to be less of an occurrence Tuesday morning than it was this morning.
626 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 NW flow continues to dominate weather patterns as the ridge continues to be centered just west of the region.
718 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through midweek, leading to dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. A warmer and more humid airmass will return toward the end of the workweek into the weekend, bringing with it renewed chances for showers and storms. Certainly would not be surprised at all to see a few sheltered locales, especially in nrn/ern stretches of the ILN FA to dip into the lower 50s by daybreak Tuesday. Tuesday/Tuesday night may end up being a carbon copy of today/tonight, with daytime temps perhaps a degree or two warmer on Tuesday and slightly more cloud cover Tuesday night. This period will be characterized - as it has been most of the recent weeks - by near to below normal temperatures as episodes of eastern Canada/eastern US troughing keep any significant heat at bay.
837 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 A weak cold front will remain just south of the area through Tuesday. High pressure will then return by the middle and latter part of the week. Lows could be a touch cooler as a weak boundary sags south across the area, with temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s. High pressure will build from the northwest on Tuesday while a weak front remains stalled just south of the area.
High pressure will migrate directly overhead overnight, bringing calm to light winds.
712 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (This evening through Tuesday Night) So the cloud debris from the decaying early morning MCS has kept the northern to northeast half of zones a little cooler than yesterday. Despite the "slightly cooler" temperatures referenced above, we still expect most areas in the ongoing Excessive Heat Warning to meet or get close to criteria (110+ heat index values) before the day is out.
909 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Latest CAMS are indicating a few isolated showers ahead of a larger cluster of storms riding along a 597 dam ridge. High temperatures will range from the low 80s across the northern portion of the CWA to the mid 90s in the southern portion of the CWA. DNM NW flow continues to dominate weather patterns as the ridge continues to be centered just west of the region.
With the upper ridge firmly in place, tomorrow is likely to be a dry day for much, if not all, of North and Central Texas. A weak inverted trough will be making its way inland along the Gulf Coast region tomorrow afternoon. A persistent upper-level ridge parked across the Southwest is expected to shift east, settling across North and Central Texas by mid-week.
621 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Thru Tonight) H5 ridge center to slide overhead tonight into Tuesday.
An upper level ridge centered over the southern United States is deepening, keeping lower pressure systems in the Gulf of Alaska away from the area. This will support slightly warmer temperatures today, with highs reaching the high 80s to mid 90s. Coastal areas will stay in the low to mid 70s. With the stability of the southern ridge, conditions are expected to be steady through the week.
746 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will taper off this evening as a cold front drops southward.
Key Points: - Heat continues through late week along/south of a stationary frontal boundary; stronger cold front arrives by the weekend. As has been the case for much of the past couple weeks, our forecast area remains in the battle zone between strong ridging over the southwest CONUS and troughing over the northeastern CONUS. Tomorrow, the boundary should shift northeast a bit as ridging aloft strengthens some.
1031 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Cooler high pressure builds in behind a cold front through mid week. The next cold front and trough approaches at the end of the week.
809 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Cooler high pressure builds in behind a cold front through mid week. The next cold front and trough approaches at the end of the week.
Higher coverage of convection has already dropped temperatures into the low to mid 70s and these values should remain rather steady into the rest of the night. Subtropical ridge axis south of the region will keep winds out of the W/SW into tonight, with speeds around 5-10 knots.
629 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Not too much of a change in the weather pattern as the 597 dam upper level ridge currently positioned over the Texas Panhandle. With modest height increases noted across the CWA due to the eastward shift in the center of the high, allowing for slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon. The upper level ridge will continue to track to the east, positioning itself near the Red River Valley by Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday looks to be one of the hotter days of the week with increased thickness values and the center of the high dominating over north Texas. Monsoonal moisture rotating around the center of the ridge will promote thunderstorm development in southeastern New Mexico tomorrow afternoon.
08/DML (Tonight through Wednesday night) A large ridge aloft is across the northwestern gulf, central plains, and into the Rockies. The local area is under the eastern flank of the ridge, and a disturbance is dropping south through northern and central LA.
The center of the upper level high remains parked over North Texas today and will continue to dominate our weather. It is worth noting, that some of the high res models are showing isolated showers to our southeast, with a few possibly moving into our far southeastern counties.
An outflow boundary from a decaying storm complex over the Lower Deserts is pushing northward into southern Yavapai and Gila counties tonight. A weak thermal low remains over the lower Colorado River valley, with a strong ridge in place over the Southern Plains.
00z regional soundings sampled the warming profiles with the upper ridge become more centered nearer the local region.
The mid/upper ridge centered over the Southern Plains will begin to build eastward over our region today. With the building ridge and less forcing of note, convective coverage should be very isolated today, but we can't rule out a few afternoon showers or a storm mainly in south MS/central LA.
This should help keep highs slightly below average (in the low to mid 80s) with the exception of location just along the Kansas border where high temperatures may reach the low 90s. Convergence from the low-level jet's exit region in conjunction with forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned mid- level disturbance will provide a supportive environment for widespread elevated thunderstorms across the region, especially after midnight tonight. This low end severe weather and flooding risk contains Lincoln and the Omaha metro at this time. These storms will bring the risk of heavy rain and lightning, with the highest chances across portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.