Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This forecast period begins with our next upper level trof axis located overhead the Eastern Washington State/Oregon/Idaho border. Upstream, a strong North Pacific upper level ridge builds along the Unites States and Canadian west coast. An Upper level closed low continues north northeast of the Hudson Bay, and trofs continue to rotate cyclonically around this low.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a ridge is centered over the Southeast U. At the surface, high pressure remains centered over the Mid- Atlantic. A low in Canada is dragging a cold front through the Midwest but any rain showers will remain west of the region.
355 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Key Messages: - Light accumulating snow and ice from freezing drizzle is expected this evening.
(This evening through Friday) High pressure to the east will remain through the short term with southerly to southeasterly flow over the state. This southerly flow will bring plenty of moisture into the low levels for scattered skies through the afternoon and early evening.
153 PM MDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Most recent upper air analysis and water vapor show broad upper trough over the western CONUS, while a closed high sits over the southeast US with the ridge running up the east coast.
Trough axis is pushing into the eastern part of the state this afternoon, and with it, a band of moderate to heavy snow is pushing east of the I-15 corridor. Any additional snow should be limited to the northern half of the region across the higher terrain with any accumulations limited to around an inch or less.
Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer than yesterday this time and we should see highs similar to few degrees warmer than yesterday.
1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 (Today through Friday) A 500mb low over the TX/OK panhandle early this morning will gradually work northeast into the Great Lakes region and degrade into a trough, as 500mb high pressure over the northeast Gulf of Mexico lingers in that location and becomes elongated. Highs today and Friday will range from the 80s near the coast to the low to mid 90s inland. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the low to mid 70s to around 80 at the beaches.
309 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Northern New England will remain between a stationary front across Canada and high pressure near the Mid Atlantic through the end of the week.
147 PM MDT Thu Oct 26 2023 The upper-level trough of low pressure responsible for the past couple days of wintry weather continues to dig to our south and west today.
1128 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Strong high pressure will remain anchored over the forecast area into this weekend generating above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
The tail of this trough is also noted on the water vapor imagery over the TX Hill Country, which is helping to drive the deeper convection over this area, where better SBCapes exist in the higher theta-e air that extends farther E into much of SE TX. Not expecting much in the way of thunder with the convection except over portions of Lower E TX closer to the slightly better instability/better forcing with the tail end of the trough, but even this forcing is expected to gradually weaken during the afternoon resulting in diminished coverage except perhaps over Deep E TX.
Key Messages: - Freezing drizzle possible in the far western CWA through midday. Freezing drizzle has been observed west of the CWA, or west of Stanly and Jones County. Will continue monitoring obs and add freezing drizzle as needed. An area of low pressure and upper level trough will progress across the region later this afternoon and through the overnight hours. A brief period, an hour or two, of freezing rain and sleet still appears possible before changing over to all snow from west to east this afternoon and tonight. Winds will increase from the northwest behind the low pressure system later tonight and into the morning hours on Friday.
1214 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 (Today through Friday Night ) An upper level high is over the southeast U. with an upper low over the Plains. The upper low will move into the Great Lakes tonight. Another upper trough will enter the northern U. Friday night as the upper high remains strong over the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure continues over the area and southwest flow continues to bring moisture into western Arkansas. A cold front in the Plains is poised to move south toward Arkansas.
A strong cold front is forecast to move across the area Friday morning into the early afternoon. There is southwesterly flow aloft across the Plains with high pressure centered over the Gulf Coast States and a trough in the Northern Plains. Closer to home, a 500 MB trough continues to lift northeastward across the region. This will drive a strong cold front across the area Friday morning into the early afternoon.
Aloft, high pressure remains rooted over the region, with surface ridging continuing to nose into the area from northeast allowing for continued southeasterly to easterly surface flow. Outside of this, with ridging overhear, light winds are expected tonight under clear skies. As for temperatures, with ridging remaining dominant over the area and strong subsidence keeping its hold, similar to today, highs on Friday will continue to rise into the low to mid 80s across the area, with some upper 70s to near 80 at immediate coast due to water influence with the southeasterly surface flow helping to moderate temps.
/AJ/ High pressure remains the dominant feature in the short term, which will feature yet another day with much above average temperatures with highs in the upper 80s. As this high moves east, flow will turn SW, resulting in moist return flow, especially areas further north and west. Low temperatures will remain very warm, 70 degrees, across the NW where cloud cover will be greater, while in the east lows should dip into the low 60s and upper 50s with closer proximity to the high. This will create some potential for rain in the ArkLaMiss Delta Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. However, rain will be limited based on the positioning of the ridge cutting off instability from the low pressure system lifting out of the north central plains Thursday.
337 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Key Messages: - Light accumulating snow and ice from freezing drizzle is expected this evening.
332 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Key Messages: * Strong northerly winds and a small chance for showers are expected overnight as another cold front in concert with an upper level disturbance pushes across the region. * Marginal Freezing temperatures are anticipated across a large portion of the area Friday morning, but this is just a precursor to much colder temperatures expected for the subsequent days.
Much of the Northwestern US will remain under an upper- level trough influence, keeping temperatures unseasonably- cold.
The Florida Keys remain engulfed in a broad region of fresh anticyclonic flow, with high pressure and an associated ridge parked over the Southeast and Mid- Atlantic states. The aforementioned ridge will move very little over the next couple of days.
(Tonight) Quiet weather will prevail across the region through tonight, with an increase in low-level winds and sky cover keeping lows several degrees warmer than last night.
1219 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 (Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough moving east across the TX Panhandle. Ample moisture and lift ahead of the trough axis continues to bring bands of showers and isolated storms to the Northwest Hill Country and parts of the Heartland region. As the trough continues to push east, the rainfall should move east of our forecast area by sunrise today, ending the flash flood threat. With the decrease of clouds through the day today, expect a warmer day with highs in the low to mid 80s. Tonight, continued southerly flow in the low levels will result in moisture and low clouds moving back into the region tonight, so expect mild lows in the upper 60s.
232 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Temps have again warmed into the lower 80s this afternoon in most areas. The southeastern US 500 mb ridge continues to erode clouds and precip before it reaches our area. A surface cold front will move southeast across Missouri and Illinois on Friday, reaching the lower Ohio Valley Friday night. The cold front will stall near or just south of the Tennessee border Friday night.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Another warm and quiet day is expected this afternoon as temperatures climb into the lower 80s across much of the region. Elsewhere remains cooler with lower 50s and upper 40s expected. For Friday afternoon a weak, shallow cold front tries to sneak into the Permian Basin. While cooler weather is expected behind this front, compressional warming and the mid-afternoon timing keeps locations warm for daytime highs. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms along the cold front are possible across the eastern Permian Basin through the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will continue to be possible along and behind the now advancing warm front overnight, especially across the eastern Permian Basin. This cold front is just a small taste of what is to come in the not too distant future for our region.
A positively tilted trough will remain over much of western CONUS, as cold continental air continues to filter in from the north through the weekend. Winds will be light, aside from some elevated ridgetop winds across the mountains of central Nevada, where winds could gust 20-25 mph.
Southwest flow was persisting aloft and at the surface, while temperatures were in the low 80s with plentiful sunshine. By tomorrow morning, a cold front will start to move into the Big Country.
1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 (Today through Friday) This persistent pattern looks to stay around through the short- term period as upper-level ridging meanders over the northern Gulf. This has mostly kept our fog development at bay as the high winds help to mix out the boundary layer enough. The profile suggests that these showers will be no more than just showers as we remain too warm aloft from the ridge to promote more robust storm development. The ridge will still be in place over us, so expect much of the same conditions as today, except winds slightly less than Thursday.
Elsewhere, a deep ridge building into the southeast will suppress instability and limit moisture. By the afternoon, ridging will have extended westward across the CWA, allowing for warmer than normal temperatures and partly cloudy skies. Friday highs are expected to range in the lower to upper 80s. Surface ridging will continue to the southeast of our region, allowing for the continuation of the above seasonal normal temperature pattern we've had the last several days.
Moisture wrapping around the exiting low pressure system will keep isolated to scattered showers over the w-central Idaho mountains through this afternoon.
The Brazos Valley and Pineywoods area are progged receive the highest rain totals through this evening. Despite rain chances, partly to mostly cloudy skies and warm/humid southeasterly winds will result in high temperatures from the low to mid 80s.
148 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 High pressure extending from the mid Atlantic to the southeast U. Southwest flow will continue across the Ohio Valley today with strong high pressure centered across the southeastern US. The strong anomalous ridge to our southeast will begin to show signs of flattening as we head into the weekend. It will remain very warm overnight with lows in the lower 60s. On Friday, a large scale mid level trough will be digging southeast into the northern Plains. This will begin the process of suppressing strong ridge to our southeast. A slow moving cold front is likely to be approaching the area from the northwest on Friday night.
Upper level low is centered near Great Falls this afternoon, and is forecast to move quickly to the east/northeast over the next 12 hours. Not a lot of moisture contained with this energy, but enough residual moisture exists in the low levels to squeeze out some light snow over the southwest third of the forecast starting late tonight and lasting into Friday night.
115 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 A few showers along the NY Thruway will dissipate later this morning with high pressure building in.
However, the mid/upper level ridge is expected to begin to build back over the region in the afternoon, thus the better chance for showers should be in the morning along the coast and inland coastal plains and brush country in the afternoon. Rain chances taper off Friday Night as the ridge builds in aloft.
(This evening through Friday night) Cooler temperatures and gusty winds continue to highlight an otherwise quiet couple days weather-wise for the Panhandles as a cold front moves through the area overnight. As the low moves east, a cold front will drop south in its wake, bringing back breezy/gusty north winds overnight. Resulting CAA will make for morning lows noticeably cooler than previous mornings, with highs topping out in the mid 50s to low 60s by tomorrow afternoon.
1239 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 A few showers along the NY Thruway will dissipate later this morning with high pressure building in.
1018 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 (Today through Friday) This persistent pattern looks to stay around through the short- term period as upper-level ridging meanders over the northern Gulf. This has mostly kept our fog development at bay as the high winds help to mix out the boundary layer enough. The profile suggests that these showers will be no more than just showers as we remain too warm aloft from the ridge to promote more robust storm development. The ridge will still be in place over us, so expect much of the same conditions as today, except winds slightly less than Thursday.
230 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 A cold front will slowly move across the region through the day Friday. ************ ************ KEY MESSAGES ************ ************ * A slow moving cold front will bring daily chances for showers through the weekend including potentially (50-70%) heavy rain in excess of 2 inches south of I-72 this weekend.
413 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Low pressure developing in the Midwest has shifted rain showers temporarily into the northern Great Lakes and replaced conditions in SE Mi with the warm sector of the system. This consists of dry weather under generous coverage of high clouds allowing temperatures a path into the lower to mid 70s for afternoon highs. Friday starts out dry as mid level subsidence trails tonight's short wave and before the primary cold front arrives mid afternoon through Friday evening. Hi-res ensemble mean surface based CAPE projects a modest instability axis building into Lower Mi in a narrow band along and ahead of the front with a peak near 750 J/kg, very similar to upstream hourly mesoanalysis numbers this afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 70s with surface Td in the lower 60s.
Currently - A strong surface anticyclone is centered near the mid Atlantic coast and the driver of fresh to strong east northeasterly breezes across the Keys. Deep layered ridging is in control with a sharp upper level ridge centered in the Gulf of Mexico. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate the Keys region through the overnight period. Strong ridging centered over the southeastern United States will maintain fresh to strong east northeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
702 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 (This evening through Friday night) Cooler temperatures and gusty winds continue to highlight an otherwise quiet couple days weather-wise for the Panhandles as a cold front moves through the area overnight. As the low moves east, a cold front will drop south in its wake, bringing back breezy/gusty north winds overnight. Resulting CAA will make for morning lows noticeably cooler than previous mornings, with highs topping out in the mid 50s to low 60s by tomorrow afternoon.
Low pressure digging south will keep snow showers throughout the Northern Rockies airspace. /ISSUED 147 PM MDT Thu Oct 26 2023/ The upper-level trough of low pressure responsible for the past couple days of wintry weather continues to dig to our south and west today.
636 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 A cold front will slowly move across the region through the day Friday. ************ ************ KEY MESSAGES ************ ************ * A slow moving cold front will bring daily chances for showers through the weekend including potentially (50-70%) heavy rain in excess of 2 inches south of I-72 this weekend.
Key Messages: - Light accumulating snow and ice from freezing drizzle is expected this evening.
The lower clouds should dissipate early this evening. Elsewhere, the high and mid level clouds will dissipate with clear skies elsewhere. The main concern over the next few nights will be near or below freezing temperatures for areas that have not experienced overnight lows near or well below freezing yet.
This weekend, a cold front will bring cooler weather and rain showers to the region.
Freezing drizzle may be possible Friday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for portions of the Red River Valley especially on Friday morning for a possible blowing snow threats and freezing drizzle with a loss of ice crystals.
Highs in the mid to upper 80s can be expected on the lower deserts Friday. This will be followed by a cooling trend as a dry cold front approaches and then sweeps through the region.
(Rest of tonight) Local weather conditions across the TN Valley overnight will remain dominated by a strong mid-level anticyclone centered across the southeastern Atlantic Coast. Layers of altostratus/cirrostratus clouds originating within a broad warm conveyor belt (extending from south TX into the Lower Great Lakes) will spread eastward in this regime, and this, along with dewpoints in the m-u 50s and a SE flow of 5-10 MPH, will lead to another mild night featuring lows ranging from the m-u 50s (northeast AL) to l-m 60s elsewhere.
Cold upper trough will be reinforced Friday by a short wave trough from BC. That trough will produce scattered snow showers in northern areas Friday, and partly cloudy skies in the south.
703 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 (Tonight) Quiet weather will prevail across the region through tonight, with an increase in low-level winds and sky cover keeping lows several degrees warmer than last night.
Expect showery activity to continue into much of the daytime hours tomorrow too as the attendant cold front approaches from the west.
Temps have again warmed into the lower 80s this afternoon in most areas. The southeastern US 500 mb ridge continues to erode clouds and precip before it reaches our area. A surface cold front will move southeast across Missouri and Illinois on Friday, reaching the lower Ohio Valley Friday night. The cold front will stall near or just south of the Tennessee border Friday night.
638 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Another warm and quiet day is expected this afternoon as temperatures climb into the lower 80s across much of the region. Elsewhere remains cooler with lower 50s and upper 40s expected. For Friday afternoon a weak, shallow cold front tries to sneak into the Permian Basin. While cooler weather is expected behind this front, compressional warming and the mid-afternoon timing keeps locations warm for daytime highs. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms along the cold front are possible across the eastern Permian Basin through the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will continue to be possible along and behind the now advancing warm front overnight, especially across the eastern Permian Basin. This cold front is just a small taste of what is to come in the not too distant future for our region.
523 PM MDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Most recent upper air analysis and water vapor show broad upper trough over the western CONUS, while a closed high sits over the southeast US with the ridge running up the east coast.
Temperatures should begin to go on an upward swing starting Saturday as ridging builds across the western United States.
Near record high temperatures are possible early this afternoon, then a strong cold front moves through later in the afternoon and evening, bringing chances for scattered showers.
Temperatures dropping throughout the day behind a cold front.
Yesterday we were able to reach the low 80's at both Chattanooga and Knoxville. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer, notably over NE TN and SW VA.
A cold front moves in tomorrow bringing increased chances of rain showers as well as some cooler weather for the weekend. Tonight, a weakening cold front approaches from the west with showers moving in.
With a ridge of high pressure to our southeast and a trough passing to the northwest, southwesterly flow will increase later today, helping to maintain this warm air mass. Thus, despite the clouds, our temperatures will once again climb into the lower 80s by this afternoon.
1219 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Another warm and quiet day is expected this afternoon as temperatures climb into the lower 80s across much of the region. Elsewhere remains cooler with lower 50s and upper 40s expected. For Friday afternoon a weak, shallow cold front tries to sneak into the Permian Basin. While cooler weather is expected behind this front, compressional warming and the mid-afternoon timing keeps locations warm for daytime highs. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms along the cold front are possible across the eastern Permian Basin through the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will continue to be possible along and behind the now advancing warm front overnight, especially across the eastern Permian Basin. This cold front is just a small taste of what is to come in the not too distant future for our region.
This will also help to push a a strong cold front towards the Ohio Valley today into the weekend. This will lead to a NW to SE gradient of overnight lows ranging from the upper 50s in southern IN along the Ohio River to the low 60s across the south and east from the Bluegrass into the Lake Cumberland region.
236 AM MDT Fri Oct 27 2023 - Winter storm is expected to bring heavy snowfall across the mountains starting late tonight, then spreading into the lower elevations this weekend. Low clouds and some wind has kept some areas above freezing this morning, but plenty of time this morning to drop below freezing. The models keep a strong west-southwesterly flow aloft over the region, ahead of the next approaching trough. Southeasterly winds will keep a Denver cyclone in place today. Cooler south of I-70.
Some of the higher resolution models are forecasting snow downstream of the larger inland lakes like Lake Of The Woods and Rainy Lake.
The positive tilt of this trough should mean some westerly wind ahead of the trough and some northerly flow after trough passage Sat.
1230 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023 High pressure will remain in control of the weather into Saturday.
(Today) A strong cold front is moving through northwest Oklahoma and into southeast Kansas early this morning, currently located near a Cherokee OK, Andover, KS.
An incredibly slow-moving cold front will be making its way to our area over the next 48 hours, before stalling out just to our northwest.
Trough axis is quickly exiting area into the Dakotas taking the more intense snowfall with it. This is due to a moist cyclonic flow affecting the area thanks to a Canadian trough dropping south into northern Montana tonight. Upper level low is centered near Great Falls this afternoon, and is forecast to move quickly to the east/northeast over the next 12 hours. Not a lot of moisture contained with this energy, but enough residual moisture exists in the low levels to squeeze out some light snow over the southwest third of the forecast starting late tonight and lasting into Friday night.
This weekend, a cold front will bring cooler weather and rain showers to the region. A cold front will bring a line of rain showers from the north early Saturday morning as it slowly approaches the region. A weak cold front will be moving east across the region Saturday morning with dry air mixing in from the northwest and a loss of upper level forcing causing the early rain chances (30-50%) to slowly dissipate during the middle part of the day.
Aloft, upper ridging remains in place extending up the East Coast.