Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1144 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Moisture has been pooling over the region ahead of an incoming upper level trough and it's leading to a few spots across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin to have reduced visibility. It won't be until early Saturday morning that precipitation chances start to increase as the upper low skirts just north of our area.
This will amplify upper ridging across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians with warmer temperatures and dry weather on Saturday afternoon.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) A cut off low along the Srn CA/Mexico border today will roll east into AZ tonight and open up into a trough Saturday as it moves into NM. The front edge of the trough will lift NE Saturday night as a secondary part of the trough moves down across NM to the TX border. The track of the upper low is favorable for rain in this area with rain moving from west to east.
Radar imagery this morning is showing the heaviest rain and isolated thunderstorms staying over the coastal waters, closer to the center of the low. Shower activity should begin to move further east, impacting more land area as the low begins to move further east through the morning. This lowering in snow levels will coincide with the decrease in moisture as the system exits.
1216 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 High pressure builds in through tonight, then slides offshore through Saturday.
(Saturday night through next Friday) The upper level low over the southwestern U.
Lows are forecast to dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s west of I-65 and into the mid to upper 30s east of I-65 (particularly in the higher elevations).
Due to the increase in cloud cover around this timeframe, went ahead and made a few adjustments to the low temperatures by leaning toward slightly cooler guidance. Areas west of I-55 will see overnight lows in the low 50s.
101 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 Dry high pressure lingers throughout the weekend and maintains above normal temperatures.
112 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 High pressure continues into tonight amid a gradual warming trend. High pressure persists over the area today while mid to high level clouds pass overhead and a frontal boundary lingers to the north of the CWA. Amid a gradual warming trend, high temperatures for today will rise to 50s for the lowlands and 40s to low 50s along the mountains. Overnight temperatures then remain a few degrees warmer than the previous night, with lows projected to be in the upper 20s to 30s.
Most of the area continues to look dry with temperatures a degree or two warmer than today.
(Tonight) High pressure has shifted eastward but remains dominate over the Appalachians. This is not too far from seasonable values of lows in the mid 30s, however it's over 30 degrees warmer than this time last year! Last year, the low hit 3 degrees at the HSV and MSL Airports when an arctic blast reached the TN Valley.
An active weather pattern continues over northern Arizona through Saturday with breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and widespread rain and mountain snow.
The trough axis will move through around midnight, followed by mid level ridging and a push of drier air aloft. Moisture remains at the low levels and the surface flow continues to be light. Low pressure is expected to develop in the Central Plains overnight, so winds will remain less than 10 knots as they become southeast.
High-resolution composite reflectivity guidance doesn't show any precipitation accompanying the front, as this will be a mainly dry cold front. Saturday morning's temperatures will be quite chilly, with lows in the low-mid 20s for western Nevada and teens for Sierra communities. Freezing fog is possible again on Saturday morning, forecast soundings depicting a saturated layer near the surface as well as temperature inversions. A ridge quickly builds in over the western US on Saturday afternoon.
426 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 High pressure will continue to move east through Saturday.
618 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 High pressure will continue to move east through Saturday.
624 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 Warm frontal boundary on pace to lift across southeast Michigan tonight, accompanied by a plume of deeper moisture. Two warm fronts have taken shape over the central Great Lakes within the broad height fall region ahead of broad troughing over central Canada and the Northern Plains states. The first of the warm fronts lifted northward through the cwa and is now in place across the northern Thumb. The second warm front is stronger and more organized. This warm front is on schedule to lift northeastward into Southeast Michigan between 22-03Z this evening. As this warm front passes, models project quick saturation from the sfc-6. A high amplitude ridge will progressively build across Lower Michigan for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
Surface ridging into the southern Appalachians but return southerly flow has developed across much of the Plateau keeping the higher elevations warmer and sheltered valleys colder. This will amplify upper ridging across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians with warmer temperatures and dry weather on Saturday afternoon.
342 PM MST Fri Dec 22 2023 Warm and dry conditions were found over the area today, in advance of an approaching Pacific wave and associated cold front. Cooler and more wintry conditions will move through the area on Saturday, along with gusty winds, as the aforementioned cold front pushes through. Expect the precipitation to start off as snow, or a rain/snow mix, quickly transitioning to all snow as the cold front dives south and east. The warmer temperatures, along with the majority of the snowfall falling during the day will limit accumulation to mainly grassy surfaces over the lower elevations.
With very dry airmass at the low level, first precipitation will struggle to reach the ground as the system approaches, while few sprinkles will be possible tonight. Lows tonight will be not as cold as last night, but still at or above the freezing mark in the mid to lower 30s. Deep southwest flow will bring WAA allowing temperatures to rise into the mid 50s for the lowlands and 40s to low 50s along the mountains.
625 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 (Rest of today through Saturday) Models depict broad high pressure over the region slowly migrating eastward during the next couple of days.
The lowering of the snow level will coincide with diminishing precipitation as the storm system exits the area.
Things eventually dry out overnight with the departure of the short- wave trough, along with drier air expected to spread into the region from the west. Upper ridging will build into the region tonight before transitioning to SW Flow aloft ahead of a closed trough ejecting across the SW CONUS into the Rockies.
(Now through Saturday) Broad upper ridging over the southern Great Plains will shift eastward over the southeast states by late Saturday afternoon ahead of a potent western states upper trough.
905 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 A weak trough of low pressure will bring some rain to the area beginning early Saturday morning.
634 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 A weak trough of low pressure will bring some rain to the area beginning early Saturday morning.
A weak cold front pushed across northern California this morning, and brought light rain to mostly Humboldt and Del Norte counties. Winds has been increasing this afternoon in the wake of the front, where gusty NNW from 20-30 mph are observed over the coastal headland and exposed ridges in Humboldt and Del Norte counties. Cold airmass will continue to spread across the region behind of the front tonight into Saturday as high pressure builds in and support dry offshore winds across NRN California.
552 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 High pressure tonight. With very dry airmass at the low level, first precipitation will struggle to reach the ground as the system approaches, while few sprinkles will be possible tonight. Lows tonight will be not as cold as last night, but still at or above the freezing mark in the mid to lower 30s. Deep southwest flow will bring WAA allowing temperatures to rise into the mid 50s for the lowlands and 40s to low 50s along the mountains.
530 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) A cut off low along the Srn CA/Mexico border today will roll east into AZ tonight and open up into a trough Saturday as it moves into NM. The front edge of the trough will lift NE Saturday night as a secondary part of the trough moves down across NM to the TX border. The track of the upper low is favorable for rain in this area with rain moving from west to east.
Saturday will begin with widespread freezing temperatures, then will warm around mid day to above freezing, but will only remain above freezing for 3-4 hours due to the approaching cold front. The gusty NW winds will easily drop the temperatures back down below freezing and allow the expected initial rain/snow mix to change over to only snow during the later afternoon and evening hours.
815 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 No change to existing forecast as high pressure over the E Seaboard ridging down into the state remains in control with continued rain-free conditions over the area under E/NE flow with gradually warming temps. Like we have been mentioning the last few days our next cold front and showers chances will unfortunately be on Christmas day. Either way this will be a weakening cold front and I wouldn't expect a washout for Christmas day. As we start our shortened work week the weakening cold front will stall across the area keeping cloud cover and chances of rain in the forecast.
913 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 High pressure will continue to move east through Saturday.
1157 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023 Warm frontal boundary on pace to lift across southeast Michigan overnight, accompanied by a plume of deeper moisture. Two warm fronts have taken shape over the central Great Lakes within the broad height fall region ahead of broad troughing over central Canada and the Northern Plains states. The first of the warm fronts lifted northward through the cwa and is now in place across the northern Thumb. The second warm front is stronger and more organized. This warm front is on schedule to lift northeastward into Southeast Michigan between 22-03Z this evening. As this warm front passes, models project quick saturation from the sfc-6. A high amplitude ridge will progressively build across Lower Michigan for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will be dry and warmer with near to slightly above normal temperatures. The lows departure will allow an upper ridge to nose in from the west. ***From Previous Discussion*** Otherwise, dry and warmer weather with minimal clouds through Christmas with temperatures warming to near normal. A ridge of high pressure will build over the area Tue/Wed pushing high temperatures to slightly above normal levels.
An upper level low over southern California is edging eastward today, with strong southerly flow ahead of the system bringing increasing moisture to west central Texas. As the upper low makes its way toward west Texas tomorrow, rain and thunderstorms will develop out west and head eastward toward the area by the afternoon.
1254 AM EST Sat Dec 23 2023 A weak trough of low pressure will bring some rain to the area beginning early Saturday morning.
(Today through Sunday Night) South/southeast flow continues this morning around high pressure along the East Coast. A large scale trough in the Rockies will intensify into a closed low over the central Plains as the period progresses. At the surface, a storm system will begin ramping up in western or central Missouri by end of the period, and will pull a cold front through the region. Cooler/more seasonal air will be on the heels of the front.
A large upper level ridge will be firmly in place overhead Sunday into Christmas.
1224 AM EST Sat Dec 23 2023 (Rest of today through Saturday) Models depict broad high pressure over the region slowly migrating eastward during the next couple of days.
Most sites have some light fog, but thicker fog is seen over the highest sites in northern lower MI (GLR/CAD/APX) and eastern upper MI (CIU). Pattern Synopsis: Wave passing through the southern Great Lakes will have passed to our east by Sunday morning, resulting in a ridging regime ahead of a developing Plains low pressure building directly overhead.
Turning cooler mid-week and beyond. The ongoing warming trend will continue today, allowing daytime highs to rise into the 50s in the lowlands and 40s to low 50s along the mountains. Overnight lows also remain above normal, with 40s expected in the lowlands and 30s for the mountains. Dry and mild weather is expected Christmas Eve into the first half of Christmas Day as ridging/warm advection ahead of a system emerging out of the Rockies takes hold.
1039 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) A cut off low along the Srn CA/Mexico border today will roll east into AZ tonight and open up into a trough Saturday as it moves into NM. The front edge of the trough will lift NE Saturday night as a secondary part of the trough moves down across NM to the TX border. The track of the upper low is favorable for rain in this area with rain moving from west to east. The upper trough will push a Pacific front through late Saturday/early Sunday with rain shifting into the eastern counties Saturday night.
Surface ridging from the east was noted on surface analysis. Due to the increase in cloud cover around this timeframe, went ahead and made a few adjustments to the low temperatures by leaning toward slightly cooler guidance. Areas west of I-55 will see overnight lows in the low 50s.
1213 AM EST Sat Dec 23 2023 High pressure will continue to move east through Saturday.
Snowfall amounts will be 4 to 8 inches for the higher elevations, mainly focused on the Tetons and Casper Mountain. Beyond this system for Christmas Day through midweek, general ridging return to the Rockies. RKS will remain VFR throughout with some gusty north winds behind the cold front after 02Z with less chances for snow on station, only carrying VCSH between 23-02Z. Winds will turn northerly gusting up to 25kts behind the cold front after those initial snow start times easing towards the end of the period and into early Sunday morning.
We will be warm sector until a cold front moves through Christmas Day.
The upper low over southern Arizona will move eastward today and pivot northeastward to southern Colorado by early evening.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Water vapor satellite imagery shows the center of the upper level low now over southwest Arizona. Lingering low level moisture with another weak impulse dropping through the mean trough may be enough to continue isolated light showers overnight into Saturday morning.
210 AM EST Sat Dec 23 2023 High pressure will remain over the eastern United States through Sunday.
321 AM EST Sat Dec 23 2023 Dry high pressure lingers through the weekend and keeps temperatures above normal. Colder temperatures and dry weather return behind a cold front mid week. The low clouds should become less common through the afternoon with patchy mid and high clouds remaining. Light S to SW winds develop for the afternoon as the center of high pressure remains to our northeast. While the high pressure breaks down, an upper trough and associated upper low digs across the central plains and begins to lift northward. Guidance from the GFS and EURO cuts the low off as a swath of enhanced vorticity wraps around from the SW.
Freezing rain and accumulating snow are the main concerns. The most widespread train of thought with this wave is rain will be the predominant precipitation type in the south and east (southern Red River Valley and west central Minnesota) with freezing rain and wintry mix in eastern North Dakota.
Currently - Deep layered ridging remains in control of our weather. This has kept dew points in the lower 60s. Temperatures are expected to move little and overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to near 70 with dew points remaining in the lower 60s. A ridge stretching along the Atlantic and Gulf coast will maintain moderate northeast to east northeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
1212 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 (Tonight) High pressure has shifted eastward but remains dominate over the Appalachians. This is not too far from seasonable values of lows in the mid 30s, however it's over 30 degrees warmer than this time last year! Last year, the low hit 3 degrees at the HSV and MSL Airports when an arctic blast reached the TN Valley. What a difference a year makes, eh? (Saturday through Sunday Night) Upper level ridging will give way to a deepening trough over the central CONUS through the weekend.
pdf Upper level ridge will move over the forecast area this afternoon through Tonight, yielding just partly cloudy skies and somewhat milder temperatures, with high temperatures Today 67-70 coast, 70-75 inland, and low temperatures Tonight 50-55 se GA, mid 50s inland ne Fl, with upper 50s coast.
A cold front is moving through the area this evening and has already passed through eastern Oregon with precipitation ending and winds shifting to the northwest in Baker City, Burns, and Ontario. temperatures are just above freezing and the snow is not very heavy, so other than a bit of a slushy coating on grassy areas, little if any accumulation is expected before the snow ends. Areas of MVFR/IFR and local LIFR conditions and mountain obscuration in low clouds and precipitation accompanying a cold front crossing central and southwest Idaho. A cold front, currently working eastward across WA/OR will work through eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho overnight. Weak high pressure is expected to begin sliding overhead behind the front, with a cool day anticipated for Sunday.
Brief H500 ridging will set up aloft, with ample WAA into the region through the day. Latest guidance has a slower progression of the inbound western trough, currently churning off the coast of southern California and the Baja. Still expecting decent rainfall as boundary layer moisture increases ahead of the initial ejecting short wave trough off the southern High Plains.
1127 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Surface ridging from the east was noted on surface analysis. Due to the increase in cloud cover around this timeframe, went ahead and made a few adjustments to the low temperatures by leaning toward slightly cooler guidance. Areas west of I-55 will see overnight lows in the low 50s.
An active weather pattern continues over northern Arizona today with cooler temperatures and areas of rain and mountain snow. Conditions improve Sunday into the Christmas holiday, as high pressure develops. The main area of low pressure was moving into south central Arizona early this morning, though there are other embedded disturbances around the state showing up on satellite loops. Another area of precipitation was on the north and west side of the low stretching from around Seligman to Grand Canyon toward Kayenta. The low is forecast to progress eastward through AZ into NM by this afternoon, as another trough dives south into the northern/central Rockies.
In its wake an upper ridge will build over the Quad State today, as a larger and more potent storm system takes shape over the Rockies. At the surface, south winds will be the rule today with the region sandwiched between departing high pressure and low pressure in the High Plains.
Freezing rain and accumulating snow are the main concerns. Questions remain about the positioning of the low and snow amounts as a result. The most widespread train of thought with this wave is rain will be the predominant precipitation type in the south and east (southern Red River Valley and west central Minnesota) with freezing rain and wintry mix in eastern North Dakota.
For Tonight & Sunday: Our weather will be increasingly dictated by an upper level trough inching its way eastward from the Plains during this period. While this trough won't bring rain to our region tonight or Sunday, it will allow surface winds to gradually build and keep low level WAA in place.
An amplifying ridge aloft will build into the region today, and will shift east through the region overnight into early Sunday. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will remain wedged into the forecast area from the east, resulting in continued southeast winds across the area today. This will really be the case late tonight into early Sunday as southwest flow aloft increases across the region in the wake of the departing ridge and an approaching low pressure system from the west.
2) Temperatures will trend much colder through Christmas Day, with daytime highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s and overnight lows in the low teens to single digits. Latest GOES WV imagery shows an upper level low over AZ with moisture spreading across much of the central Rockies. Farther north, a surface cold front is pretty evident diving south towards northern MT. Despite mostly cloudy skies Saturday, mild temperatures will continue with highs in the mid-to-upper 40s east of I-25 ahead of the cold frontal passage late this afternoon. Latest forecast snowfall totals continue to be light with north facing slopes seeing the highest totals, especially along the North Laramie Range as well as the Cheyenne and Pine Ridges.
Rain could mix with snow in northeast Nebraska Sunday night with the possibility of a narrow band of freezing rain.
Height rises arrive between 18Z and 21Z throughout most of the column, but a growing consensus is emerging in maintaining saturation through the lowest 5 kft this evening and overnight as a swath of near-surface convergence emerges over southern Lower. Longwave ridge axis extending into the Gulf amplifies Sunday as it moves across the Great Lakes while unfaltering stratus field butts up against a sharpening inversion.
Ridging builds south to north from the eastern Gulf to the Upper Midwest.
For today: a large scale mid/upper trough to move across the Desert Southwest and into Texas today through Sunday. Rain chances will be on the decrease early as the warm front passes to the north and limited drier air works its way over the region in wake of the front.
Temperatures moderate slightly compared to yesterday with clouds and rain keeping most areas in the low 60s. A cold front approaches on Sunday and northwesterly flow brings high temperatures closer to normal in the upper 50s to 60s.
But, look for rain chances to increase by late afternoon as the main mid/upper low begins moving into the Southern Plains. These elevated rain chances will continue into Sun as the main upper low drags a strong cold front across the state. We should see an end to all this activity (with clearing skies) by late Sun afternoon through the evening (from west to east) with the pass- age of the cold front.
550 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 (Today through Sunday Night) South/southeast flow continues this morning around high pressure along the East Coast. A large scale trough in the Rockies will intensify into a closed low over the central Plains as the period progresses. At the surface, a storm system will begin ramping up in western or central Missouri by end of the period, and will pull a cold front through the region. Cooler/more seasonal air will be on the heels of the front.
A strong cold front is making it's way through eastern Idaho this morning.
958 AM EST Sat Dec 23 2023 High pressure will remain over the eastern United States through Sunday.
615 AM EST Sat Dec 23 2023 High pressure will remain over the eastern United States through Sunday.
624 AM EST Sat Dec 23 2023 High pressure will lead to dry conditions through Sunday.
227 AM MST Sat Dec 23 2023 Cold front will move through eastern Montana this morning. An upper trough will move through the area this afternoon and evening with some light snow which may be mixed with light rain when it starts as good mixing behind the cold front will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 40s in many areas for highs despite the colder air aloft. The system moves to the east late tonight and skies will clear and winds diminish as high pressure moves into the area for Sunday and Christmas Day.