Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure continues to dominate across the region keeping fairly dry and warm conditions across the region through the period. Otherwise, above normal temperatures stay in place with highs in the low to upper 80s and lows around 60 degrees.
(The rest of today) Weak isentropic ascent continues across far southeast Oklahoma this morning atop the elevated frontal boundary within the low level moist axis.
Winds will also be present and during the afternoon broad valleys could gust 20 to 25 mph, while ridgetops could see gusts 30 to 40 mph, especially along the Divide. The timing of the cold front and light snow in this area after sunset may cause wet surfaces to freeze creating slick driving conditions.
The 12Z HREF suggests the low clouds will shift northward and dissipate during the late morning, early afternoon hours on Sunday as southerly winds develop. The increasing southerly winds will bring LLM and the potential for patchy blowing snow over the higher terrain areas of the Sisseton Hills.
827 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2023 Dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures will likely prevail through Sunday night with crossing high pressure.
Although large hail and a few tornadoes are possible, we are very concerned with the high potential for wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph (and potentially higher in isolated areas) and the threat for widespread wind damage along this line of storms.
Low-level moisture is trapped beneath weak ridging aloft which will keep us saturated and nearly stationary with temperatures overnight into Sunday morning.
635 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2023 Dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures will likely prevail through Sunday night with crossing high pressure.
The warmup will carry over into the overnight period as well with most of the plains above 20 degrees tonight save for a few spots along the low-lying South Platte River Valley. Meanwhile, the impressive closed low over Southern California will propel itself northeastward, accelerating across northern New Mexico tomorrow and bringing a surge of cold air advection and increased moisture to the high country.
433 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2023 Dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures will likely prevail through Sunday night with crossing high pressure.
555 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2023 Looking ahead into tonight, quiet conditions should continue across our forecast area as hi-res models highlight an mid-level ridge amplifying across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This should allow for overnight temperatures to drop into the low to mid 50s along and north of I-20. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow as the amplified ridge continues to spread across our CWA.
Today's high temps were lowered slightly for most of the region, except in deep east TX and West Central LA south of warm front with clearing skies allowing the warmer temperatures near 80. North of the boundary, thick cloud cover is still keeping temperatures in the low to mid 50s, and that may persist through the rest of this afternoon. Either way, the cloud cover remain and we may see more fog early with the warmer air arriving. On Sunday the strong upper level low at 540 dam will eject out of the Southwest, bringing severe weather to the Plains. The upper level forcing of a prefrontal trough will provide the chance of a few showers early tomorrow in SW AR.
Otherwise, low level high pressure over the northern Gulf will move southeastward over south Florida. Weak high pressure influence across the area.
Thus we lowered the low temperatures a few degrees.
We'll see temperatures rapidly climb from the low to mid 60s into the mid and upper 70s where low clouds mix out, generally along a line from Tuscaloosa to Clanton to Alex City. North of the I-20 corridor, low clouds will linger into the afternoon where cooler temperatures in the 60s will continue. Low stratus clouds will then develop after midnight once again areawide, keeping overnight lows mild, ranging from the lower 50s north to the lower 60s south. Southerly flow and warm air advection will increase on Sunday, with minimal rain chances as ridging builds into the Southeast.
554 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2023 Mostly clear skies across western and central ND late this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the single digits above zero around the Turtle Mountains, to the lower 30s far southwest. High pressure over eastern portions of the Northern Plains will continue to move east tonight as low pressure deepens in the lee of the Northern and Canadian Rockies. This would place the higher confidence areas in the southeast. Overall a general trough pattern will be found through the week bringing fluctuating temperatures and brief chances for precipitation.
642 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2023 Clearing skies and warmer temperatures are anticipated for Sunday.
Otherwise, fairly pleasant boating conditions are anticipated across the gulf waters as high pressure dominates through most of the period. High pressure continues to dominate across the region keeping fairly dry and warm conditions across the region through the period. Otherwise, above normal temperatures stay in place with highs in the low to upper 80s and lows around 60 degrees.
945 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2023 Breezy and warmer to close out the last weekend in February.
/EC/ Looking ahead into tonight, quiet conditions should continue across our forecast area as hi-res models highlight an mid-level ridge amplifying across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This should allow for overnight temperatures to drop into the low to mid 50s along and north of I-20. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow as the amplified ridge continues to spread across our CWA.
Otherwise, won't make many changes to overnight lows for the time being, as they are tricky as one has to balance the effects of a deep snow pack and relatively cold near-surface air mass with the warmer air just off the surface. The 12Z HREF suggests the low clouds will shift northward and dissipate during the late morning, early afternoon hours on Sunday as southerly winds develop. The increasing southerly winds will bring LLM and the potential for patchy blowing snow over the higher terrain areas of the Sisseton Hills.
Surface ridging and clear skies across most of the region has helped temps fall to just above or below zero.
Currently - Deep layered ridging entrenched across the area has weakened some, but is still delivering stable conditions. Stable rain free conditions will remain in place despite the deep layered ridging weakening a few more decameters. A pressure ridge shifting southwards into South Florida will keep winds light and broadly out of the east.
1153 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2023 Clearing skies and warmer temperatures are anticipated for Sunday.
930 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2023 Surface ridging and clear skies across most of the region has helped temps fall to just above or below zero.
944 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2023 (Issued 909 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2023) Low pressure will continue ewd tnt from northern Lake Superior to Quebec. Its cold front will stall over srn WI Sun AM followed by high pressure for Sun afternoon. A pleasant and sunny day is expected with high temps ranging from the lower to middle 30s toward central WI to the lower 40s over far srn WI. Gehring (Issued 150 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2023) Tonight through Sunday: High pressure settles to the south of the area as low pressure tracks north of Lake Superior. The pressure gradient will tighten up a bit with a weak trough swinging through.
However, looks like most of the low clouds will thinning as they move closer to TAF sites.
Latest models remain in good agreement that a cold front will cross our area late afternoon and early evening Sunday. This will keep precipitation as rain or a rain/snow mix in the lowest valleys with little to no snow accumulation expected. Gusty winds will also develop on Sunday, particularly in the higher terrain and along/behind the front.
Potent upper low, currently over CA, will shift east into the central Plains this afternoon into tonight.
1256 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2023 Mean western NOAM upper trough will support semi-active flow through the period. SW CONUS upper low will move east today with associated WAA and breezy SW winds supporting another mild day, esp for parts of northeast WY and far western SD.
Have a wonderful Sunday! (Today through Monday) Dry and warm conditions will continue across South Florida today and Monday as upper level high pressure centered over western Cuba remains in place. At the surface, high pressure will be over the northeastern Gulf today and then slide down over the area and eventually east of South Florida on Monday. With high pressure east of the area on Monday, expect a S/SW breeze to develop during the day.
WV imagery this morning shows upper trough just off the WA/OR coast and a cutoff low over California. The low is starting to eject eastward with the approach of the trough with mid and upper clouds spreading into southeast Idaho. The surface gradient will tighten as the trough approaches, and winds are expected to be strong in the Upper Snake Plain and Teton Valley. The higher ridgetops of the Sawtooth Range can get up to 10 inches.
252 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Current Conditions: A 500 mb trough is once again sitting off the California Coast, which is allowing an upper-level ridge to build into Montana. There is low confidence (10 to 20 percent) of freezing rain accumulating on road surfaces along the Yellowstone River Valley. Slick roads may be possible by the morning hours as temperatures will be near or slightly below freezing. The cold front will also allow strong northwest winds (gusts 40 to 50 mph) to reach the surface, which will allow patchy blowing snow to occur in north-central Montana. With temps expected to get above freezing on Sunday, most other locations may form a snow crust to prevent blowing snow.
NBM is fairly confident on temperatures with a very narrow 75/25 percent range of just 2 degrees, just a touch above freezing. NBM has a bit more range for lows tonight given hit/miss nature of fog/stratus, but for highs again Monday there is only a 2 degree range just a touch above freezing thanks to an early morning shift to northwest winds behind the system. Winds should be strong enough for blowing/drifting, however 36-48 hours of near/above freezing temperatures and possibly some very light drizzle will help modify the snowpack to make it less blowable. When the period opens Monday night, an area of low pressure is approaching the region from the inter-mountain west.
High temperatures today will be mild ahead of a Pacific cold front that moves through tonight and tomorrow.
The Storm Prediction Center has a threat for severe weather southwest of our region, in correlation to the advancing trough. Looking at the entire thermal structure Monday afternoon in these areas, a brief period of freezing rain is possible, but a later start to the rain would provide more time for surface temperatures to warm.
/NF/ Monday Morning through Afternoon: This approaching low pressure system will swing out from the High Plains late tonight into the Midwest tomorrow, while an anomalously strong upper-level ridge will remain anchored over the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern United States. This will tighten surface pressure and mid-level height gradients as the low runs overtop the ridge tomorrow. There is also a chance for light rain showers or sprinkles as the low pressure system's cold front moves east through the region, but rain amounts should be minimal.
414 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2023 Mean western NOAM upper trough will support semi-active flow through the period. SW CONUS upper low will move east today with associated WAA and breezy SW winds supporting another mild day, esp for parts of northeast WY and far western SD. Upper trough will cross the region late tonight, with some light snow possible over northeast WY and the BHs Monday morning. Gusty SW winds over SW areas will diminish and transition to gusty NW winds most places behind the trough, with near adv levels possible on the plains east of the BHs Monday morning. Cooler conds expected for Monday, but still near seasonal norms. Mean western CONUS trough will persist through this week allowing for seasonably cool temps and semi-unsettled conds.
518 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 (Today through Monday) Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be positioned on the western periphery of 500 mb high pressure centered over Cuba during a portion of the period, with the remainder of the period seeing a zonal flow setting up shop overhead as closed 500 mb low pressure moves rapidly through the Central Plains and tamps down the mid-level high. This will result in dry weather for the BRO CWFA, even with a weak cold front sagging closer from the north on Monday.
This will likely be the warmest day for a while, as a cold front pushes through tonight and brings in colder temperatures.
An upper level trough approaches this morning with light upslope snow developing along the Idaho/Montana border. The more widespread snowfall arrives with the cold front mid morning into the afternoon with brief snowfall rates up to 1â per hour for the passes.
601 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 Issued at 339 AM CST Sun Feb 26 202 High pressure is near Bemidji at 09z. Signifcantly warmer 850/925 mb airmass will quickly spread north today but wind direction not favorable for rapid warming, exception being in the thicker forests part of our fcst area in Minnesota where did go higher than NBM by a few degrees to indicate temps around 32F vs upper 20s. BUFKIT soundings indicate warm layer sufficient for freezing precipitation if enough vertical motion is present to generate measurable precipitation. Window for potential freezing drizzle/freezing rain is 09z to 15z again mainly east of the Red River. 01 inch freezing rain in our east. Any freezing precip becomes light snow as system moves out Monday midday/early aftn as 850 mb layer cools.
351 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2023 High temperatures today will be mild ahead of a Pacific cold front that moves through tonight and tomorrow.
A fairly vigorous Pacific cold front will move through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight and this should maintain a shallow mixed layer in the atmosphere.
328 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2023 A low pressure system will approach from the Great Basin today, coinciding with the arrival of a broader trough from the northwest. While the low will remain too far south to have much of an impact, the moist, westerly flow from the trough will return snow to the west beginning this morning.
A low pressure system will move across the Midwest into the Great Lakes.
545 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2023 Aviation - Wintry mix of precipitation Monday - A strong low pressure system moving east from the central Plains states will bring a mix of pcpn beginning early to mid Monday morning as strong isentropic lift develops ahead of the low. Pcpn will likely struggle to develop initially due the dry easterly winds with the high pressure ridge to the ne of our region. Precipitation type will be predominantly rain south of I-96 but a brief period of fzra and sleet is possible at the onset of pcpn with sfc temps near freezing and due to dynamical cooling effects. Near to mainly just north of the I-96 corridor we expect a swath of freezing rain with potential for fzra accumulations on the order of a quarter to third of an inch.
445 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2023 A warm front will move north through the region on Monday, followed by a cold frontal passage from the west Monday night.
Downstream ridging is also noted across the Southern and Central High Plains before becoming more zonal over the central conus and points east. The low will quickly lift northeast across the Four Corners region later today, ejecting out into the Plains by this evening. The compact trough will then take a more negative tilt as it rapidly lifts into northeast Kansas towards southern Iowa. The exception will be the arrival of precipitation and we will see the gradient wind threat transition to more of a convective wind threat as those strong winds in the lower levels should be realized at the surface. The sub-tropical jet will help to transport mid-level moisture into the region while a broad area of high pressure over the GoM and SE states will allow Gulf moisture to start surging northward into the Plains.
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 546 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 A low pressure system will move across the Midwest into the Great Lakes.
452 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2023 A low pressure system will approach from the Great Basin today, coinciding with the arrival of a broader trough from the northwest. While the low will remain too far south to have much of an impact, the moist, westerly flow from the trough will return snow to the west beginning this morning.
409 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 Issued at 339 AM CST Sun Feb 26 202 High pressure is near Bemidji at 09z. Signifcantly warmer 850/925 mb airmass will quickly spread north today but wind direction not favorable for rapid warming, exception being in the thicker forests part of our fcst area in Minnesota where did go higher than NBM by a few degrees to indicate temps around 32F vs upper 20s. BUFKIT soundings indicate warm layer sufficient for freezing precipitation if enough vertical motion is present to generate measurable precipitation. Window for potential freezing drizzle/freezing rain is 09z to 15z again mainly east of the Red River. 01 inch freezing rain in our east. Any freezing precip becomes light snow as system moves out Monday midday/early aftn as 850 mb layer cools.
(Today through Monday) Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be positioned on the western periphery of 500 mb high pressure centered over Cuba during a portion of the period, with the remainder of the period seeing a zonal flow setting up shop overhead as closed 500 mb low pressure moves rapidly through the Central Plains and tamps down the mid-level high. This will result in dry weather for the BRO CWFA, even with a weak cold front sagging closer from the north on Monday.
323 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2023 A small area of low pressure will cross the Gulf of Maine this evening. High pressure will cross the region Monday.
850mb temperatures will likely be above freezing as the precipitation arrives in Central and East Central Wisconsin, so freezing rain is likely until temperatures cool enough aloft to get snow, or boundary layer warms enough to get rain. Surface temperatures will probably warm a little above freezing south of highway 54 during the midday hours.
- Wintry mix of precipitation Monday - A strong low pressure system moving east from the central Plains states will bring a mix of pcpn beginning early to mid Monday morning as strong isentropic lift develops ahead of the low. Pcpn will likely struggle to develop initially due the dry easterly winds with the high pressure ridge to the ne of our region. Precipitation type will be predominantly rain south of I-96 but a brief period of fzra and sleet is possible at the onset of pcpn with sfc temps near freezing and due to dynamical cooling effects. Near to mainly just north of the I-96 corridor we expect a swath of freezing rain with potential for fzra accumulations on the order of a quarter to third of an inch.
246 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2023 A weak cold front will pass through the area this evening. High pressure will briefly build overhead late tonight before low pressure and its associated warm front impact the area Monday through Monday night.
Surface observations place a 1023 mb high pressure system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Water vapor imagery continues to highlight the broad mean-layer ridge over the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Bahamas, although falling heights registered this morning by the FL SGLs indicate this system is losing some gusto. Weak high pressure over South Florida and the Florida Keys will maintain light and variable breezes across the Keys waters today and tonight.
Ahead of a Pacific trough and front set to impact the region late tonight and Monday, surface pressure falls were responsible for southeasterly winds this afternoon. A brief period of freezing drizzle may be possible in the southeast before sunrise, but better potential should remain south and east of Dickey/LaMoure counties. A period of light snow will be possible Monday morning in western North Dakota as the upper trough arrives, but just light accumulations look likely.
BB/03 (Now through Monday) Latest water vapor imagery shows a strong closed low spinning over the southwest coast, with weak ridging encompassing much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored over the northeast Gulf, with a weak frontal boundary stalling along the US 80 corridor. The aforementioned closed low will eject eastward through the day and reaching the eastern Plains by this evening. The progression of this low will shift the high pressure further south, with flow aloft becoming more zonal. The closed low will move into the Great Lakes region by Monday and swing eastward through the day. Highs on Monday will be similar to today, though a degree or two warmer given stronger southerly flow.
1025 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2023 A warm front will move north through the region on Monday, followed by a cold frontal passage from the west Monday night.
Tonight and Monday Active weather period across eastern Idaho is now underway as an upper level trough begins to exert its influence over the region. Occasional precipitation has been observed this afternoon in the lower valleys although the lower levels of the atmosphere remain a bit dry so it will take some time for the precip to become more widespread, but it will. As expected, temperatures in the lower Snake Plain and into the Magic Valley have warmed above freezing and into the lower 40s courtesy of some downsloping so a period of rain or rain/snow mix is probable this afternoon and evening before eventually changing over to snow.
High pressure over the GOMEX shifts back eastward, with the center over the local Atlantic waters again late tonight. The pressure gradient tightens a little as a low pressure system develops north of the waters and tracks eastward, increasing developing a swell from the north in the afternoon and increasing offshore winds late tonight.
At the surface, ridging will have shifted well east of our region, allowing for a return to southerly low level flow to return.
1149 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 (Today through Monday) Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be positioned on the western periphery of 500 mb high pressure centered over Cuba during a portion of the period, with the remainder of the period seeing a zonal flow setting up shop overhead as closed 500 mb low pressure moves rapidly through the Central Plains and tamps down the mid-level high. This will result in dry weather for the BRO CWFA, even with a weak cold front sagging closer from the north on Monday.
100 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2023 A warm front will move north through the region on Monday, followed by a cold frontal passage from the west Monday night.
243 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 The weather looks to remain quiet heading into tonight as an upper ridge remains stationary across the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern United States. In addition to this, the aforementioned ridge should remain stationary across our forecast area before slowly shifting east out of our CWA by Monday afternoon as the low runs overtop the ridge. Afternoon temperatures should peak in the low 80s across most of the area.
A cold front moving across the region is causing some snow showers today. The only area that might see some impacts from accumulating snow or potentially melting and refreezing is down at Lost Trail pass.
A low pressure system will approach from the Great Basin today, coinciding with the arrival of a broader trough from the northwest. While the low will remain too far south to have much of an impact, the moist, westerly flow from the trough will return snow to the west beginning this morning.
A weak cold front will pass through the area during the midday time frame with scattered showers.