Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Stratus will gradually clear by mid to late morning, allowing temperatures to top out in the low to mid 80s across the region. A cold front will approach the area overnight, with north winds of 25 to 35 expected for a few hours behind the front. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible as the front moves through, although the higher potential will be south and east of our region.
A sharp mid-level trough axis is situated across far eastern Montana early this morning, with the upper-level PV anomaly centered over central and eastern Montana.
Warm-air advection continues ahead of this low. Across far southern Nebraska, cold air is already wrapping into the low and pushing southward. This will likely change as the cold front moves through, with strong cold- air advection and pressure rises, though wind speeds will likely be on the marginal side of a Wind Advisory. A cold front swings through our area by the noon to 1 pm timeframe. Short-term CAMs all depict a secondary band of precipitation forming behind the cold front.
The strong cold front ran between the two lows while high pressure was on the east coast. Dew points were in the 30s ahead of the strong cold front with teens and 20s behind the front.
307 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 High pressure builds into the region today. With a weak warm front approaching from the west, a few light rain or snow showers will be possible in the White Mountains.
146 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 The storm off the coast will move farther away and allow high pressure to drift by to our south tonight and early Thursday.
With cloud coverage increasing this afternoon, expect overcast skies by tonight as a low pressure system approaches from the Plains. This carves out a deep trough over the ern U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the eastern U. with a ridge over the western U. Ridging moves into the Rockies 12z Mon. Troughing moves onto the west coast 12z Tue and into the Rockies 12z Wed. LLWS is expected at KIWD and KSAW later tonight as the warm sector ahead of the approaching low pressure system moves over us. North-northeast winds will get quite gusty Thursday evening at IWD and CMX in the tighter pres gradient on the backside on the low with gusts of 35-40 kts expected.
123 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 (06Z TAFS) No major aviation impacts expected for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control.
Post frontal showers will continue to dissipate this evening as an upper ridge builds into the area tonight through late week.
1045 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023 With a trough over the western CONUS, upper flow over the northern plains is southwesterly. At the surface, low pressure sits over northeastern WY, and a frontal boundary across the CWA is separating colder air to the north (temps in the 30s/40s) from warmer air to the south (temps in the 50s/60s). As the upper trough crosses the northern plains Thurs, lingering moisture and steep lapse rates will allow for some light snow showers Thursday afternoon and overnight. Temperatures Thursday and into the weekend will be noticeably cooler, with highs in the 20s and 30s.
06Z observations are showing a fast moving cold front which has entered northwest Kansas around Goodland and Colby with a 60 mph wind gust reported at Burlington, Colorado. The second band will develop as a stronger trough and upper level lift in the 700 mb zone will produce a post frontal mesoscale band that looks to extend from Dodge City to the Oklahoma border.
358 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 High pressure to the east of the area will keep the region dry and mild through today.
The Bighorn Mountains may pick up an additional 1 to 4 inches, with a couple inches more at the highest peaks. Cooler temperatures will be in place thanks to the cold front from Wednesday. The Climate Prediction Center continues to show favoring cooler than normal temperatures for Wyoming in the coming weeks. Cooler temps will also help to slow the melt of the above average snow many areas have received.
A few degrees cooler between now and sunrise is expected. Overall, quiet and mostly dry weather should continue through tomorrow as the upper-level ridge continues the eastward shift. The ridge axis is shifting east due to an amplified upper-level pattern. Over the next 36 hours, a low in Central Canada should retrograde and drop south, leading to a digging trough axis through the Central CONUS and a push of cooler air into the SE.
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 223 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Sub-freezing temperatures are expected early Thursday morning with radiational cooling under a clear sky.
Sub-freezing temperatures are expected early Thursday morning with radiational cooling under a clear sky.
114 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Aviation -- Rain Thursday Night -- Deep southwesterly moisture transport and strengthening upper-level jet dynamics ahead of a developing cyclone will practically guarantee rain Thursday night. 75 inch rainfall for many locations, perhaps staying on the low side of that range toward Jackson.
1133 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 The storm off the coast will move farther away and allow high pressure to drift by to our south tonight and early Thursday.
Otherwise, fair weather with a mix of sunshine and clouds is anticipated into the weekend as a ridge of high pressure becomes established over the Northern Rockies.
1130 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 A tightening pressure gradient over the region kept strong south winds across the area today, while ridging continued overhead. A western CONUS trough will continue to push east tonight and amplify the surface pressure gradient across the region. Toward tomorrow morning, with a strong pressure gradient in place, expect south winds to continue to bring gusts of 45+ mph ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12z tomorrow morning, a strong cold front will begin traversing through the CWA beginning in north central KS. Behind the cold front, equally as strong, northerly winds/gusts are expected. A brief lull in wind speeds can be expected ahead of the cold front at times but did not warrant getting too fancy with the headlines.
In response, temperatures have risen in those areas into the lower to mid 40s primarily. Thus, freezing conditions are expected to linger there a few more hours. These winds are courtesy of a strengthening low level jet that is developing ahead of an approaching cold front.
Recent surface analysis suggests high pressure located across the Central Appalachians. The response will be an increase in cloud cover this afternoon and warmer conditions, with temperature around five to seven degrees above average.
933 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 After another cold morning, temperatures will warm up quickly today ahead of an approaching cold front. High pressure currently overhead will continue to dominate the weather today bringing dry conditions and plenty of sunshine. High clouds ahead of the next weather system will increase in coverage today as the ridge shifts east. Moisture will gradually increase as well, especially once surface winds shift to the south to southwest in response to high pressure heading offshore. The increasing cloudiness will have an impact on temperatures with much warmer overnight lows compared to the last few nights. High pressure at the surface will be located in the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile a surface cold front moves east of the Mississippi River early in the morning and will continue to push eastward through the day.
Stratus will gradually clear by mid to late morning, allowing temperatures to top out in the low to mid 80s across the region. A cold front will approach the area overnight, with north winds of 25 to 35 expected for a few hours behind the front. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible as the front moves through, although the higher potential will be south and east of our region. Much cooler temperatures will filter in behind the front, with temperatures quickly dropping into the 40s and most locations reaching the 30s by daybreak.
Aside from patchy valley fog it's clear over land with nocturnal radiative cooling lowering temperatures to the 40s and 30s; ridgetop temperatures are generally running a little milder while it's coldest across the inland valleys.
653 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 (Today through Friday) High pressure is present at the surface over the ERN third of Conus/SE US. The ridge is expected to slowly push SEWD today into Friday as a low pressure system pushes EWD out of the N Central US today and into the Great Lakes tonight. Temperatures and dew points will respond accordingly with the lower 70s returning for highs across a good chunk of C AL as well as increasing dew points through tonight from the SW to NE across the area. During Friday morning, we should see some dew points in the S getting into the lower 60s.
Very light freezing drizzle has been observed across many locations of the CWA this evening/early overnight. However, the forecast starts off with a strong upper low over the Great Lakes.
433 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Key Messages: * Strong cold front with winds gusting up to 40 to 50 mph will move through the area today.
542 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 (Today and Tonight) Active weather day expected ahead of a cold front passing this afternoon and evening. Strong moisture advection is underway with showers and a few storms likely to develop this morning well in advance of the cold front. These storms will quickly spread NE in advance of the cold front and pose a risk of severe weather by early afternoon across portions of E OK and eventually into western AR. Conditions in proximity to the developing triple point are likely to become highly favorable for severe weather and these conditions may spread into portions of far SE OK before the surging cold front displaces the airmass. The passing cold front will end the severe weather threat by early evening across western AR and SE OK.
Key Messages: * Strong cold front with winds gusting up to 40 to 50 mph will move through the area today.
Readings are in the mid 30s to mid 40s, but are falling into the 20s over the eastern Dakotas behind a cold front. This cold front will continue eastward through the day and it's likely highs are being reached now. Behind the front, the thermal profile will plunge below freezing and a quick transition to snow is expected. As the thermal profile nears freezing, there will be a narrow window of sleet (maybe an hour or so) along the front. Conditions should deteriorate quickly by the evening commute given the strong winds, subfreezing temperatures, moderate to heavy snow, and areas of blowing snow.
610 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Very light freezing drizzle has been observed across many locations of the CWA this evening/early overnight. However, the forecast starts off with a strong upper low over the Great Lakes.
A sharp mid-level trough axis is situated across far eastern Montana early this morning, with the upper-level PV anomaly centered over central and eastern Montana. High pressure moves over the region tonight into Friday morning, which may promote another round of fog formation especially for northeastern parts of north-central Montana.
641 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Breezy south winds will pick up today ahead of a cold front.
Expect high pressure both days bringing mostly clear skies, overall light winds, and cooler than normal temperatures. Look for temperatures to be slightly warmer Friday over today.
High pressure is overhead bringing clear skies and a quick warm up this afternoon. A few degrees cooler between now and sunrise is expected. Overall, quiet and mostly dry weather should continue through tomorrow as the upper-level ridge continues the eastward shift. The ridge axis is shifting east due to an amplified upper-level pattern. Over the next 36 hours, a low in Central Canada should retrograde and drop south, leading to a digging trough axis through the Central CONUS and a push of cooler air into the SE.
Warm-air advection continues ahead of this low. Across far southern Nebraska, cold air is already wrapping into the low and pushing southward. This will likely change as the cold front moves through, with strong cold- air advection and pressure rises, though wind speeds will likely be on the marginal side of a Wind Advisory. A cold front swings through our area by the noon to 1 pm timeframe. Short-term CAMs all depict a secondary band of precipitation forming behind the cold front. Behind this front, much cooler air will move in, especially on Friday.
1030 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 High pressure builds into the region today. With a weak warm front approaching from the west, a few light rain or snow showers will be possible in the White Mountains. Weak low pressure passes over the region Friday and Friday night with rain showers and some mountain snow showers.
A weather system will exit the region today with dry and cooler weather expected on Friday.
Light snow from a passing cold front is currently in the process of diminishing, although still lingers for some areas. A stout upper level low will then slide in from Canada today, bringing cold air more breezy winds and scattered light snow. Temperatures today will be cooler than recent days, and generally in the teens and 20s. Tonight, the mentioned upper low will continue to progress across the region. This upper low will reinforce the cold air across the region. Upper level low continues to push through Friday.
(Rest of Today) Area temperatures have risen above freezing, therefore both the frost and freeze headlines were allowed to expire. Clouds will start to increase from west to east this afternoon ahead of a low pressure system that is currently over the southern Plains.
Much cooler temperatures and dry Friday through the weekend. General pattern: An upper trough will move through the region, bringing a cold front into the area this afternoon and completely through the area by midnight tonight. Temperatures look to be near freezing during this time range, but after yesterday and today seeing highs in the low to mid 60s the ground will be too warm to support and accumulations or impacts (perhaps a short lived dusting on grassy surfaces). Colder this weekend: Upper troughing will settle across the region this weekending, resulting in much cooler temperatures.
Breezy south winds will pick up today ahead of a cold front.
This low will continue to evolve as the trough tracks farther east and hooks to the northeast as it completes it trek over the Rockies. Winds ahead of the front will continue to be strong and mix down to the surface, providing warm morning temperatures at sunrise in the lower 50s. Rain showers will begin to develop shortly after sunrise as a weak warm front lifts across the area. Showers will continue to increase through the late morning hours into the afternoon as a strong cold front approaches the CWA. Afternoon highs will range into the upper 40s in northern MO and into the lower 60s south of I- 70 before the aforementioned front barrels through. As far as the chance for snow, strong CAA will fill into the region behind the boundary, rapidly dropping temperatures below freezing.
Models show the upper trough axis east of the CWA by 18Z today. There is weak westerly flow aloft behind the trough this afternoon and tonight. In the lower levels, the northerly flow become northwesterly by about 06Z tonight for all the plains. There is sill some shallow low level moisture over the high mountains into this afternoon. On Sun, mainly dry WNW flow aloft will be over the area, as a sfc lee trough develops near the foothills. Across the plains it will be dry and warmer as temperatures rise back to seasonal levels.
612 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 After another cold morning, temperatures will warm up quickly today ahead of an approaching cold front. High pressure currently overhead will continue to dominate the weather today bringing dry conditions and plenty of sunshine. High clouds ahead of the next weather system will increase in coverage today as the ridge shifts east. Moisture will gradually increase as well, especially once surface winds shift to the south to southwest in response to high pressure heading offshore. The increasing cloudiness will have an impact on temperatures with much warmer overnight lows compared to the last few nights. High pressure at the surface will be located in the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile a surface cold front moves east of the Mississippi River early in the morning and will continue to push eastward through the day.
The Bighorn Mountains may pick up an additional 1 to 4 inches, with a couple inches more at the highest peaks.
The strong cold front ran between the two lows while high pressure was on the east coast. Dew points were in the 30s ahead of the strong cold front with teens and 20s behind the front. Given the high river levels across the area, this rain should cause some rises to occur. By late afternoon the strong cold front will begin moving into eastern Iowa and will move into eastern Illinois by mid-evening. Behind the cold front winds will ramp up considerably with a gradual decrease in winds toward sunrise Friday.
Temperatures remain on track for today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s along the coast and in the mid to upper 70s across the interior west of I-95. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than the previous couple of nights, with lows in the low to mid 50s across east central Florida. An area of high pressure will continue to move southeast off of the coast of the Carolinas today, keeping conditions mostly dry. An area of high pressure will gradually move southeast off of the Carolina coast, keeping conditions dry and skies mostly clear today.
06Z observations are showing a fast moving cold front which has entered northwest Kansas around Goodland and Colby with a 60 mph wind gust reported at Burlington, Colorado. The second band will develop as a stronger trough and upper level lift in the 700 mb zone will produce a post frontal mesoscale band that looks to extend from Dodge City to the Oklahoma border. Friday high pressure at the surface should help to give us some more sunshine during the day and then mid level clouds will overspread the region by late afternoon.
In its wake, surface analysis places a dome of high pressure centered over the Carolinas.
639 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 High pressure builds into the region today. With a weak warm front approaching from the west, a few light rain or snow showers will be possible in the White Mountains. Weak low pressure passes over the region Friday and Friday night with rain showers and some mountain snow showers.
Rain chances will return to mid state region tonight as surface front and upper level troughing approaches.
(This evening through Friday) 2 PM West Texas Mesonet observations show the east-west oriented cold front located just north of Lubbock County and quickly moving south. Strong westerly winds will continue ahead of the front in the lower South Plains and the southern Rolling Plains this afternoon before the arrival of the front. Tonight is expected to be much colder in the wake of the cold front with lows in the 20s and low 30s for most locations.
416 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 High pressure passes overhead through tonight, pushing offshore on Friday as the next cold front approaches.
(This evening through Friday) NEAR-TERM: The primary near-term concern will be severe weather along and ahead of a southward-advancing cold front this afternoon. The cold front is racing south and east per surface observations. NM Behind the cold front, temperatures are falling.
A sharp ridge bringing a strong southerly flow will keep our temperatures in the evening relatively mild. Weather should remain quiet into the evening hours until the high pressure to our east gradually makes its way out of our region later tonight. Behind this high pressure system is a low pressure system stationed in the Central Plains carrying a cold front eastward increasing our rain chances into the overnight hours.
Water vapor satellite loops today show high pressure building into the Pacific Northwest. Model guidance agree on the high pressure ridge to build into north-central Idaho and western Montana on Friday and remain for much of the weekend, causing partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and a warming trend for temperatures.
306 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Key Messages: - A cold front continues to move through the region this afternoon.
along with a surface cold front. Friday night, a vort lobe is expected to be rotating around the main upper low over Lake Superior with a reinforcing shot of cold air moving into IL at the surface.
During a good portion of the out periods, there just really is not much in the way of precipitation potential, while upper level split flow happens, and an upper level ridge within split flow makes its way over the region.
1142 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 (Rest of Today) Area temperatures have risen above freezing, therefore both the frost and freeze headlines were allowed to expire. Clouds will start to increase from west to east this afternoon ahead of a low pressure system that is currently over the southern Plains.
An upper ridge to our west will slowly build into the region today, providing dry conditions and clear skies. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today, although still several degrees below normal.
(Rest of today through Friday) High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida through the end of the week as it gradually pushes into the western Atlantic. A moderate easterly wind flow this afternoon and this evening will gradually veer to the southeast on Friday as high pressure pushes further into the western Atlantic. Highs will rise into the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas and into the mid 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
1234 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Breezy south winds will pick up today ahead of a cold front.
229 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 A strong cold front moved across the region today bringing with it sharp decreases in temperatures and a stout northerly wind shift. Aloft, while a trough axis rotated across the Plains today, a more pronounced low continues to sit over Manitoba.
This threat will continue into Friday night in association with a strong arctic cold front.
1254 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 We extended the mention of flurries/snow showers a bit farther east today to include areas along and west of the Highway 83 corridor. Light snow from a passing cold front is currently in the process of diminishing, although still lingers for some areas. A stout upper level low will then slide in from Canada today, bringing cold air more breezy winds and scattered light snow. Temperatures today will be cooler than recent days, and generally in the teens and 20s. Tonight, the mentioned upper low will continue to progress across the region. This upper low will reinforce the cold air across the region. Upper level low continues to push through Friday.
254 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Motions in the satellite imagery indicate low level high pressure building over the Great Basin with an upper level trough associated with the jet to the south shifting east out of the Great Basin towards the Divide. A bit of mid level vorticity squeezed under the ridge building over the upper Great Basin to combine with the diurnal heating to kick off a few convective cells over the San Juan Mountains this afternoon.
Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will affect the Mid-South tonight with cooler and drier air settling over the region for the weekend.
A cold front associated with this system arrives after midnight tonight, moving NW to SE across the area.
/ISSUED 133 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023/ A sharp mid-level trough axis is situated across far eastern Montana early this morning, with the upper-level PV anomaly centered over central and eastern Montana. High pressure moves over the region tonight into Friday morning, which may promote another round of fog formation especially for northeastern parts of north-central Montana.