Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
602 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) The subtropical ridge has centered itself across far west TX, northern Mexico, and southern NM and will remain parked there through the short term period with very little change in strength/heights. Forecast high temperatures today will approach Heat Advisory criteria in the southwestern Mountains and foothills, as well in our far eastern Permian Basin counties, but the overall coverage of these temperatures does not appear high enough to warrant a Heat Advisory, especially with Friday appearing to be the slightly warmer day of the period.
The atmosphere will destabilize again as temps push into the lower and mid 80s this afternoon. Highs on Friday will still reach the lower to mid 80s to promote destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain and move east into richer moisture by evening. However, the E/NE low flow behind a weak backdoor cold front early Friday may bring some smoke back into our eastern zones.
443 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Cooler weather sticks around through the foreseeable future. * Cooler, fall-like weather is expected through the foreseeable future. An expansive area of low stratus tied to an upper trough/low is present over a good portion of the Midwest states early this morning.
Weak high pressure over the western Atlantic offshore from South Florida will gradually shift further offshore through Friday, resulting in light to gentle easterly breezes across the Keys coastal waters.
557 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (Thursday through Friday) The short-term forecast looks to remain disturbed, with most of our weather being driven by the stalled cold front to our north. Today, upper-level ridging will build in to our west, tilting the front and putting the region into NW flow.
Quiet and dry morning with 10 AM temperatures in the low to mid 80s. The temperature forecast remains on track with highs near and into the low 90s along the coast and in the mid 90s across the interior.
624 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (Today through Friday) 500 mb high pressure centered roughly over southern New Mexico will remain the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA during the period. While convection is not forecast to occur over Deep South Texas nor the Rio Grande Valley, some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the lower Texas coastal waters, especially the Gulf of Mexico between 0 and 60 nautical miles offshore.
604 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (Today and tonight) A sprawling subtropical ridge will remain stout over the area today with a weak short wave moving out of the Rockies into the Central Plains. This surface cyclone will move across the Texas Panhandle this afternoon dragging a surface pressure trough behind it to the southwest. Low level convergence within the trough and strong surface heating will allow a cumulus field to develop. Whether this is enough lift to see any thunderstorms remains unclear given the strength of the ridge overhead.
(Today through Friday) 500 mb high pressure centered roughly over southern New Mexico will remain the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA during the period. While convection is not forecast to occur over Deep South Texas nor the Rio Grande Valley, some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the lower Texas coastal waters, especially the Gulf of Mexico between 0 and 60 nautical miles offshore.
high pressure over New Mexico with upper ridging stretching north across southern Colorado. Temperatures will continue to warm across the region with the upper ridging in place, with the Plains reaching into the 90s, and 80s across the San Luis Valley. Breezy conditions will once again develop by mid to late morning across the higher terrain and San Luis Valley. Did add areas of smoke to the afternoon and evening for the eastern San Juan Range and southern portions of the San Luis Valley with expected active burning of the Bear Creek and Quartz Ridge fires. A weak cold front will drop south across the Plains this evening.
738 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Mid-level WV imagery early this morning clearly shows yesterday's low pressure system now over the eastern Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs today are only expected to top off in the low 50s, except for the south and east, which will climb into the upper 50s/low 60s. Key Messages: -Skies become mostly clear tonight through Friday night with some fog or frost potential for cooler interior locations.
As the upper level trough continues southeast overnight and into the early hours Friday instability will still linger and additional development of storms after midnight, especially by daybreak across our marine zones, is possible.
(Today through Friday) 500mb troughing will remain overhead through the short term period of the forecast. An upper low currently across western IL will deepen and drop SE in the flow through today and remain in place across the state through tomorrow. At the surface, a cold front currently stretches from the central Great Lakes back through the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
519 AM MDT Thu Sep 7 2023 More zonal upper level flow across the CWA as a high pressure builds in from the south with increasing convergence aloft.
The core of the ridge remains over southern New Mexico, which allows temperatures to warm again similar values again today. There is a bit of elevated fire danger with the low humidity in the western Brush Country and the Rio Grande Plains, but and the dry to critically dry fuels, but the winds should continue to remain below critical values (20 mph at 20feet).
-Mainly quiet forecast with highs mainly in the 80s through the weekend -Low end chance for some showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight but most will stay dry Details: Today our weather will continue to be dominated a ridging across the western United States. At the surface, a high pressure across Manitoba has pushed south into the region, allowing for light northeasterly winds and a dry airmass today. With high pressure in places, expect this smoke to make it to the surface today. Outside of smoke concerns, expect a quiet weather day with highs in the low to mid 80s and light winds through the afternoon.
Today will be the hottest day of the week as the warm front and weak downslope This afternoon aids the full insolation, and winds weaken the next couple of days.
153 PM MDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A rinse and repeat weather pattern continues across the area through the end of the week, with highs in the 70s and low 80s, with a few afternoon showers each day across the higher terrain.
The mountain valleys may have some spots that reach below freezing. A large ridge aloft will continue to be positioned over New Mexico on Friday. This is a rather strong ridge for this time of year with a brief period of 500 mb heights around 3 standard deviations above normal.
240 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Temperatures trend cooler through the weekend. A slow moving upper-level trough will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region throughout this period. Temperatures also begin to trend cooler to finish out the work week. The aforementioned trough will remain over the region, kicking off additional showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. A very broad and misshapened trough pattern over the Mid- Atlantic states supplies deep southerly flow to advect moisture into our area this weekend.
1026 AM PDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Strengthening high pressure will continue the warming trend into the weekend.
1123 AM MDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A few clouds were lingering across the eastern Uintas early this morning are dissipating under stable conditions with clear skies area wide as we continue to sit under the influence of high pressure. Given the low relative humidity expected to be in the single digits and low teens as well as the marginal winds, elected not to issue any Fire Weather highlights at this time since critical fire weather conditions still appear to be more localized and marginal. However, models have been back and forth with the magnitude of the winds and currently gusts look to be in the 25 to 30 kt range, but closer to the lower end of that. Due to a bit better mixing, temperatures look a few degrees warmer on Friday with highs approaching 4 to 8 degrees above normal.
A trough of low pressure will pass north of the region, but close enough to trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight and on Friday. Upper level ridging strengthens but still can't seem to shake some light precipitation threats with isolated level of thunderstorms, mainly for the ID-MT border, and mostly Sun and Sat afternoons/evenings. If it occurs anywhere, it will be in the highlands and mountains near the WY and MT borders.
There is a little upper level lift with NW flow around a spoke on the big upper low over KY/TN. The front will usher in slightly milder temperatures in its wake for the weekend with the cooler high temperatures noted across portions of SC AR with temperatures remaining in the 80s.
Fast moving upper trough will reinforce onshore flow across SW Washington and NW Oregon today, keeping temperatures a few degrees below early September normals.
1252 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (Today through Friday) 500 mb high pressure centered roughly over southern New Mexico will remain the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA during the period. While convection is not forecast to occur over Deep South Texas nor the Rio Grande Valley, some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the lower Texas coastal waters, especially the Gulf of Mexico between 0 and 60 nautical miles offshore.
233 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 The region is on the dry and subsident side of a swirling upper low centered over middle Tennessee this afternoon. Much cooler and less humid conditions have overspread the area. Northerly flow at the surface and aloft continues through tomorrow and another pleasant and less humid day with max temps in the low 80s is forecast. A few middle and high clouds are likely in the vicinity of the slowly advancing trough to the east.
334 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Short Term/Marine Mid level troughing as well as low level moist cyclonic flow and H8 thermal troughing will act to keep extensive cloud cover and isolated showers in place through Friday. As we begin the weekend, high pressure over Ontario will feed cooler and drier into the region. Comfortable conditions will prevail with highs in the lower to mid 70s and dewpoints in the 40s and 50s.
242 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A cold front will cross the region today. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes, slowly spreading into the Ohio Valley. Cool air aloft associated with a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes will provide enough lift for a few showers today, especially from west- central Ohio south into the Tri-State Region. Most areas will see considerable low clouds associated with the trough. As high pressure builds into the Great Lakes, the departing cold front will be slow to move east. On Friday evening, a general pattern of mid-level troughing will be in place across the eastern CONUS.
(This afternoon through Friday) A cold front is extending from a low over Quebec southwest along the East Coast and across the far southeastern portions of the CWA.
Adjusted low temperatures up by a couple of degrees along and east of the Mississippi River tonight Discussion: AN upper level trough continues to sit across the Upper Midwest with widespread low clouds underneath it. At the surface, high pressure sits across the northern Great Lakes. Despite the high pressure building, the NAM and SREF are showing low clouds lingering along and east of the Mississippi River into Friday morning. Synoptic models and the SREF show cloud cover finally decreasing on Friday as high pressure moves back into the area at the surface and aloft.
1034 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Cooler weather will continue for the foreseeable future. Low level cyclonic flow around low pressure over the Great Lakes is promoting a persistent low level cloud shield with just a few breaks embedded, and perhaps a few sprinkles as well. * Cooler, fall-like weather is expected through the foreseeable future. An expansive area of low stratus tied to an upper trough/low is present over a good portion of the Midwest states early this morning.
130 PM PDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Strengthening high pressure will continue the warming trend into the weekend.
Isolated thunderstorms will initiate off the higher terrain along the Nevada/Idaho border around 21z and move northeast into parts of the lower valleys then into the Boise Mountains early this evening. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today from yesterday.
221 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A slow moving cold front will eventually move through the region this evening. Behind this front, cooler temperatures and unsettled weather are expected to linger into the weekend. The initial cold front shows up well on radar, as a broken line of showers continues to progress across eastern Ohio, having just passed through the New Philadelphia area recently. A secondary front will approach from the west this evening, and then likely stall near or in the ridges towards morning. The secondary boundary will remain stalled or move eastward only very slightly eastward into Friday night, as ridging just off of the Eastern Seaboards slows progress.
1235 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) The subtropical ridge has centered itself across far west TX, northern Mexico, and southern NM and will remain parked there through the short term period with very little change in strength/heights. Forecast high temperatures today will approach Heat Advisory criteria in the southwestern Mountains and foothills, as well in our far eastern Permian Basin counties, but the overall coverage of these temperatures does not appear high enough to warrant a Heat Advisory, especially with Friday appearing to be the slightly warmer day of the period.
224 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW, a ridge across the southern Rockies into the southern plains, a deep trough across the eastern U. and a ridge on the east coast. Ridging builds back into the northern plains 12z Fri with troughing remaining across the eastern half of the U. Key Messages: -Skies become mostly clear tonight through Friday night with some fog or frost potential for cooler interior locations.
A few lines of showers have developed near the low and the cold front extending southwest from Port Huron down to Adrian and will exit to the east in the next hour or two. The rest of tonight will be cloudy with patches of light rain or drizzle as we remain under cyclonic flow under the western side of the upper level short wave trough with plenty of boundary layer moisture remaining under the low level inversion. A thermal trough will slide over the region Friday with 850mb temps dropping to around 8C.
Meanwhile, a weak cold front will progress through the forecast area this evening before pushing offshore through the overnight hours. Highs on Friday range from around 90 well inland to the lower to mid 90s elsewhere.
-Slightly cooler overnight temperatures both tonight and Friday night. A 500mb trough continues to drop southward towards the southeast this afternoon and continue to be the main driver of the convective activity through the evening. Upper troughing remains parked over the area tomorrow. Temperatures (at least overnight temperatures) should be slightly cooler given the upper level pattern. Forecast low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s.
A weak upper level trough will move through the state this afternoon.
Northwesterly to northerly flow at 5 to 10 knots over interior areas as a cold front moves into the area, while closer to the coast a southwesterly flow develops. The upper trof becomes oriented over the extreme southeast states tonight where it lingers into Friday. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s with upper 90s possible over southeast Mississippi. Highs on Friday range from around 90 well inland to the lower to mid 90s elsewhere.
1101 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A slow moving cold front will eventually move through the region late today. This will mean clouds, cooler temperatures and the risk for showers and storms. Showers and thunderstorms continue to be most numerous in the eastern CWA in an area of low-level convergence ahead of the approaching cold front, and upper divergence associated with a 250mb jet.
310 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Tonight and Tomorrow: An upper-level low pressure system has been moving southeastward from KY/TN toward GA/SC today. Thunderstorms have been developing on the northern edge of the low-level ThetaE axis in southern AR, as well as in the better instability axis around southern MS/LA. Flow aloft is northwesterly, or parallel to the surface cold front boundary through AR/LA/central MS.
320 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Currently have an upper ridge centered over southern NM/SW TX and spans across the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest. At the surface, lee troughing is in place with a stationary front across Northern TX. We are expecting an overall lull in activity for the Fri-Sat time frame as the upper ridge remains in place and the forecast area is under northwest flow aloft. There is good model agreement that by Sat night the southwest CONUS upper ridge will start to break down, allowing mean upper flow and preferred track for upper energy to sink south. This will finally pull down some Fall-like temperatures! Cold front looks to move through Sun night into Mon morning with some showers and storms also tied to the front.
1226 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (Today through Friday) A short wave trough is sitting off to our northwest with a cold front pushing into the northwest part of our area.
Temperatures will remain mild under these conditions, and keep the low-levels relatively dry. With shear also on the low end (generally under 25 kts), storms will remain sub-severe, with the main threats being erratic gusts up to 45 mph and small (less than 0.
This has resulted in gloomy conditions today and helped keep central Indiana around 10 degrees cooler than normal. This should leave the Ohio Valley in a cooler region beneath low heights.
As the high stays over our area and the thermal ridge strengthens, the anomalously hot temperatures will continue. We could see some isolated precipitation in our southeastern counties where we do have that higher instability, but chances still are not great due to suppression from the ridge.
Yeah, with the cooler temperatures, still fairly wet ground from yesterday's rains (those who saw it, anyway) and dew point depressions near zero, dense fog is going to be possible tonight.
This in combination with a much cooler airmass is making for our first true taste of autumn weather. Mostly cloudy skies will continue for most on Friday as we remain in this cooler weather pattern. Some inland areas may see some sun Friday afternoon though, so temperatures could be slightly warmer than those of today, but we are generally looking at highs in the low 70s.
451 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 An upper level trough and associated surface cold front were moving east over the forecast area this afternoon, with the front in the process of transitioning across the Appalachians. Despite the surface cold front being passed through, drier low level air will be slow to advect into the area. Forecast soundings suggest that with the aid of the disturbances aloft, convective precip may again generate with daytime heating and potentially go into Friday night, with the highest POP over our eastern counties. The upper level pattern will start out with a high pressure dome centered over the Southwest and will extend northward across the Rockies and portions of the Plains. General troughiness will cover the eastern CONUS with several upper level lows scattered across the Southeast.
138 PM MST Thu Sep 7 2023 Strengthening high pressure across Arizona into the weekend will result in a continued warming trend and dry conditions.
Dewpoints are in the lower 70s with temperatures near 90.
At the surface, surface observations show an elongated area of high pressure extending from the Upper Midwest southward along the Missouri River Valley. This pattern has allowed for a seasonable air mass to move into the Middle Mississippi Valley, with most locations this afternoon seeing temperatures top out in the low 70s to low 80s. The cooler temperatures in that range are expected over portion of Illinois where denser cloud cover has inhibited surface heating.
As the trough approaches and interacts with better moisture (near 60 dew pts, PWATs >1. Winds will turn around the dial as the trough moves out, bringing in a weak front to provide some heat relief on Friday (highs generally staying in the 90s). Northwest flow aloft starts to set in as the area of high pressure retreats to the west.
During this period, the northern stream briefly amplifies leading to a digging trough over the western Great Lakes. This trough will bring periods of precip to the region.
1229 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge, centered over southern New Mexico, will continue to dominate the region today. The 850 mb thermal ridge will strengthen today by around 2 deg C, which should result in highs a few degrees higher than yesterday.
(Tonight through Friday night) Key Messages: - Hot and humid conditions continue Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals a ridge building in from the west as a trough shifts off towards the east coast. Ridging will continue to expand into the region on Friday which will add a couple of degrees onto our highs.
As the trough traverses along the Canadian border tonight, shower activity will also increase over northwest Montana north of about I-90 and last through early Friday morning.
Issued by National Weather Service Columbia SC 243 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A cold front continues to move into the area from the west today bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe.
909 AM PDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Strengthening high pressure will continue the warming trend into the weekend.
1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 18Z Aviation Update Much quieter and cooler weather is expected through the short-term portion of the forecast.
The post frontal air mass while cooler, is also moist with low clouds draped over the region. As we begin the weekend, high pressure over Ontario will feed cooler and drier into the region. Comfortable conditions will prevail with highs in the lower to mid 70s and dewpoints in the 40s and 50s.
Upper high pressure builds northward on Friday while temperatures cool subtly over today's highs as a reinforcing surge of cooler air works its way through eastern CO. This won't be a significant cool down, but high temperatures will be 1 to 3 degrees cooler across the plains. Some high based showers could occur as a minor disturbance rounds the upper ridge through northern CO Friday afternoon, but with inverted V soundings, doubt any measurable precipitation will occur and have limited pops to the silent category for now. Otherwise, with the building upper ridge, winds across the mountain areas will be lighter on Friday.
255 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Low pressure aloft becomes established over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight.
This should prevent as much smoke or fog issues as we had last night and temps will be warmer in the mid 40s to low 50s. Temps will be getting to the low 80s ahead of the front in our south on Friday, but low 70s in the north.
1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (Rest of Today) The cold front (which was responsible for shower and thunderstorm activity across the TN Valley yesterday evening) has now spread southeastward and out of the local CWFA.