Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Near zonal flow continues through the day on Monday as most of the area warms into the low to mid 80s. The lowest humidity will be across the southwest where winds are forecast to be a bit lighter, so maybe not the most favorable overlap. Lows will generally be in the low to mid 50s.
131 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Light showers will continue to advance across the region this evening along the leading edge of a trough.
The showers have formed right along an upper trough that is swinging through Middle Tennessee today. High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature influencing our weather over the next several days.
133 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Low pressure parked off the California Coast will maintain the deep marine layer and extensive night and morning low clouds for the next few days. A stronger system from the north will draw the low inland later in the week, but cooler than normal conditions will continue.
Mid morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed an upper level trough axis over our CWA. This feature will continue to shift east through this afternoon and help usher in slightly cooler and drier air. /22/ Today through tonight: An upper level trough crossing the MS Valley region will promote dry northwest flow across the forecast area during the near term. Hi-res guidance continue to highlight a well-defined trough axis slowly moving eastward across the southeastern US region.
136 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Central CONUS ridge will shift east in the period as a Pac NW trough digs into the west. Warmest day in the period will be Monday as the thermal ridge passes over the region, with 80s and a few 90s expected toward central SD. Western CONUS trough will begin to shift east Tues, shifting a lee-side trough through the region as a cool front.
The band of light-moderate rain (associated with the same feature) will continue to progress eastward along the KY-TN border and should dissipate entirely later this morning as the initiating trough begins to accelerate northeastward into the central Appalachians. Other elements of the near term forecast appear to be on track at the present time, with the combination of deep boundary layer mixing and dry air advection around a developing area of low pressure across the southeastern U.
With a flat ridge aloft, warmer air will continue to push into the region the next few days. The flat ridge aloft will slowly transition to a southwest flow through the week as a very strong trough drops into the western USA. Models are not in great agreement with the details, but the general solution of the trough swinging into the northern plains looks consistent. Some things that bring some uncertainty include the position of the dry slot and where the low goes. I suspect the low will slow down as a semi-blocking pattern develops with the high in Canada straight north.
With light winds and dry air mass in place, the lows will fall to near 70 over the inland coastal plains.
At the surface, cooler and drier high pressure was moving southward through the Missouri Valley. The upper ridge will flatten out Monday/Monday night but southerly to southwesterly surface to mid-level flow will help advect warmer temperatures into the area, leading to increasing 1000-850mb thicknesses. So there is some potential for warmer temperatures with the pattern tomorrow. NBM shows this well with the highest probabilities of exceeding 0.
1110 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Current surface map places high pressure across the eastern Dakotas with trough across eastern Montana into Wyoming. Upper level ridge across the Northern Plains this morning breaks down as trough slides through the Canadian Rockies. Slightly warmer on Monday as thermal profiles peak. Series of impulses carve out a closed low across the western CONUS through the remainder of the week.
(This evening through Monday Night) The short-term continues to look dry, as the region remains sandwiched between troughing to the east, and ridging to the west.
350 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 A frontal boundary with an associated low pressure system will move through the region tonight and Monday bringing a round of showers. High pressure then builds in for the middle and latter half of the week. Enough lift and moisture advection is occurring ahead of a cold frontal boundary to result in the development of showers across NE PA into portions of the Southern Tier in NY. While the frontal boundary pushes east of the region Monday a broad upper level low will roll eastward into CNY.
(This afternoon through Monday) The diminishing cloud cover, decreasing dewpoints, and rain-free radar picture all point to the passage of the cold front which is located just southeast of Alabama. Humidity will continue to drop this afternoon, and it will begin to feel much more Fall-like as we enter a dry period dominated by high pressure. Temperatures will fall into the mid 50s to near 60F, but there may be some locally cooler spots across the northeast in the valley locations. Highs will range from the lower 80s north to mid 80s south.
335 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer temperatures expected this week with multiple chances for rain by mid week through the end of the forecast period. Southerly flow sets up on Monday and will be with us for the majority of the forecast period, sending warmer temperatures and increased moisture our way.
- High pressure in control for Tonight into Monday night An area of high pressure in Ontario will build southeast and into Michigan by Monday.
Mostly sunny and warm again today, although an upper trough from the Gulf of Alaska will be passing across northern Idaho. There will be a slight (15-20) percent chance of thunderstorms this evening in southern Harney County due to moisture from a weak upper low off California. A second, stronger upper trough from the Gulf of Alaska will send a cold front through our CWA late Monday afternoon and evening.
106 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2023 A high amplitude ridge over the Central Rockies will slowly flatten today and tonight. We'll stay in the warm advection regime, and a light downslope component just off the deck will support warmer and above normal temperatures today. The exception will be in/near the foothills where an increasing downslope component and lee troughing will support lows a few degrees warmer. An upper level ridge progresses over the Central Plains Monday.
249 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2023 percent chance of thunderstorms this evening in southern Harney County due to moisture from a weak upper low off California. An upper trough from the Gulf of Alaska will push a cold front through our CWA late Monday afternoon and evening.
325 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Low pressure over SE PA this evening will continue to move off to the east. An upper trough and associated cold front will then push across the region on Monday.
234 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Light showers will continue to advance across the region this evening along the leading edge of a trough.
1216 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Mid morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed an upper level trough axis over our CWA. This feature will continue to shift east through this afternoon and help usher in slightly cooler and drier air. /22/ Today through tonight: An upper level trough crossing the MS Valley region will promote dry northwest flow across the forecast area during the near term. Hi-res guidance continue to highlight a well-defined trough axis slowly moving eastward across the southeastern US region.
311 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 A mid level trough will pivot southeast across the region tonight, bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening before drier conditions evolve tonight. Positively tilted mid level trof over Indiana to pivot slowly east-southeast into western Ohio by 00Z and then across the area overnight. As the mid level trof axis pivots closer to the ILN FA, diurnally driven showers expected to develop late this aftn. As trof axis shifts east clouds to decrease overnight. Lows tonight mainly in the lower 50s. Highs on Monday to top out in the lower and middle 70s.
151 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Cooler today with below normal high temperatures this week.
Tonight and Monday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure centered over the northern Mississippi Valley. North winds ahead of the high augmented by moisture fluxes off Lake Superior have contributed to widespread convective clouds developing today. As the high settles over the area, dense ground fog and frost potential are the main forecast concerns. Synopsis: High pressure will become centered across the region tonight and shift to the central Great Lakes on Monday. Sky & Weather: High pressure will promote good radiational conditions tonight. But as the low level ridge axis shifts to eastern Wisconsin by 7 am Monday, wind trajectories become light southerly and think there will be sufficient time for clearing skies and rapidly falling temps. On Monday, warmer highs in the middle 60s to low 70s are forecast.
A nice sultry evening expected with rain cooled airmass in place, lows bottom out in the low to mid 70s by sunrise Monday. 500mb trough axis has moved east of the Texas coast with the surface boundary weakening off the Lower Texas coast. The mid-level ridge is lurking west of the area and will begin to slowly edge eastward Monday. Low level moisture continues to resides over the area, especially the across the RGV, however mid-upper level drier air in associated with the 500mb ridge overspreads the County Warning Area Monday lowering the chance of rain considerably. Monday night looks to be a degree or two cooler as the dry air moves into the region.
404 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 A trough of low pressure will approach tonight and develop low pressure near the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday.
Upper troughing over the Great Lakes will continue to slowly push eastward through Monday keeping dry northwesterly flow in place. Highs will likely climb into the low 90s near the coast and upper 80s inland on Monday. The big talking point will be the low temperatures Will lows beginning to fall into the low to mid 60s.
(This evening through Monday Night) Drier air filtering in from the north combined with ridging building aloft means that the weather today is being much quieter compared the past few days. The dry air and mid-level ridging will remain in place through tomorrow, so expect a very similar conditions for the start of the work week. High temperatures on Monday will be a couple of degrees warmer than today with afternoon temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s.
By the end of the week, temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler than normal for late September. Midday satellite loop showed flat cumulus developing over the higher terrain as well as scattered cirrus along and northwest of I-15. Tonight, our area will be in weak southwest flow between high pressure over Mexico and low pressure off the California coast. Low pressure which was approaching the British Columbia coast this afternoon will be rolling east along the US/Canada border Monday, turning our flow a little more westerly and knocking heights down a few dam. This will keep high temperatures a couple of degrees cooler Monday, with sensible weather otherwise similar to today.
(Through Monday) A cold front will continue to work its way through the region this afternoon and evening. A taste of fall is expected for some areas tonight, with low temperatures dipping into the low to mid 60s for interior FL Panhandle, SE AL, and SW GA counties. Tomorrow, high pressure builds into the region and be accompanied with northerly winds.
229 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 A longwave trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will quickly move eastward this evening. By 1200 UTC Monday, the ridge is expected to be located from east-central Missouri northeastward into northern Illinois. Temperatures will be quite a bit warmer, ranging from the low 50s to near 60 degrees from southeast to northwest.
Busy weather pattern towards the end of the week with a few chances of precipitation A dirty high pressure is dominating the weather pattern today with the axis currently located over the western portion of the CWA. Given the current cloud cover and how long it has lingered into the afternoon and the possibility of elevated winds over night with respect to return flow with the high pressure, it could hinder any fog development tonight. It appears the best location for fog would be over NW WI as the higher winds are expected over NE MN.
Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer than today, but still fairly pleasant weather conditions are expected considering the summer heat we've endured.
Warmer than average conditions and the return of wildfire smoke aloft for the early part of the work week.
835 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Low pressure parked off the California Coast will maintain the deep marine layer and extensive night and morning low clouds for the next few days. A stronger system from the north will draw the low inland later in the week, but cooler than normal conditions will continue.
Early afternoon WV imagery and objective analysis depicts low amplitude ridging over northern Mexico and the SW Conus becoming depressed as pronounced East Pacific jet energy punches towards the southern California coast. This evolution will enhance westerly flow over the region and aid to further dampen subtropical high pressure with H5 heights retreating from a 588-591dm range closer to a 582-585dm range by the middle of the week. The greatest forecast uncertainty hinges on the extent of phasing and depth of the consolidated trough over the Great Basin during the latter half of the week. While a few CMC members still exhibit incomplete phasing and limited height falls across the forecast area, the trend among the vast majority of ensemble members is towards a deeper, progressive trough materializing through the Great Basin.
259 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2023 High pressure will allow for another mostly clear night across the forecast area. On Monday the ridge will flatten a bit as a weak disturbance starts to brush across northern CO in the afternoon.
1204 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Secondary cold front is sliding south across the region early this morning. So this combined with cooler temperatures could generate some radiational as well as steam fog late tonight, mainly in the river valleys. On Monday, upper level ridging will build into the region while an upper level trough will deepen over the western CONUS. So expect sunny, dry and warmer weather on Monday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Cooler tonight with some fog possible. Discussion: Low pressure over Lake Michigan was leading to showers across Illinois. Low level clouds associated with this low moved into the area this morning. Tonight, a good setup for radiative cooling with clear skies and the high pressure directly overhead.
As for storms, currently there are building cumulus over the higher elevations with a few thunderstorms forming along the Mogollon Rim and along the Arizona and New Mexico border.
The upper trough over the eastern 1/3 of the U. The showers have formed right along an upper trough that is swinging through Middle Tennessee today. High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature influencing our weather over the next several days.
That said, given some forcing from the deep trough over the eastern CONUS, a few storms could become strong with frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain. Temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 70s (woohoo!) and dewpoints will drop into the 50s tonight! Conditions clear out through tomorrow across the CWA as the cooler temperatures continue.
111 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Ridging across the the Rockies is present on latest RAP analysis under clear skies. The pressure gradient with the trough does tighten some overnight bringing the potential for some 15-20 knot sustained winds over the northeastern portion of the CWA.
A fairly flat ridge of high pressure in the middle/upper troposphere will transition more to a westerly flow pattern across the Rockies as a rather strong southern branch of the polar jet enters the Desert Southwest region. The increased mid level flow across the Rockies will result in a strengthening leeside trough across Colorado, so we will see a bump up in wind speeds on Monday as the MSLP gradient increases. There will also be increased boundary layer convergence along the leeside trough axis, however a stout cap will prevent widespread convective development.
Winds have now shifted to the southwest in response to a cold front that is currently making its way through the panhandle. The cold front will start to push through Florida on Monday but will end up stalling right around I4.
Tonight should be dry once again with cool temperatures in the lower to middle 60s in the Hill Country. For tomorrow, could see a bit better possibility of an isolated shower or storm in the western counties as south winds return there and leads to a pseudo warm front. Otherwise, highs tomorrow will be a bit warmer with temperatures maxing out in the lower to middle 90s. Tomorrow night should be similar to that of tonight with perhaps lows a degree or two warmer.
203 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Expect increasing clouds, as the last very warm day for awhile gives way to slightly cooler temperatures on Monday.
103 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Key Messages: - Seasonable Temperatures are Expected for Sunday and Monday with Highs in the Lower to Middle 70s for Most.
157 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Weak low pressure will move northeast across the upper Ohio Valley today, with a mid level trough digging southeast across the region into tonight. Positively tilted mid level trof near Chicago to pivot slowly east-southeast into western Ohio by 00Z and then across the area overnight. As the mid level trof axis pivots closer to the ILN FA, diurnally driven showers expected to develop this aftn. A window of sunshine through early afternoon will allow temperatures to top out in the lower and mid 70s. Lows tonight bottom out in the lower/mid 50s before rebounding to the lower/mid 70s on Monday afternoon.
(This evening through Monday) For the rest of today into this evening, short wave ridging overhead will likely keep convective chances low with rising heights and large scale subsidence. This will change a bit for tomorrow with increasing low level moisture and warmer temperatures. The upper ridge will be temporarily suppressed again on Monday leading to falling heights aloft. The only forcing present will be from an extensive surface pressure trough extending from southeastern New Mexico northward into the Central Plains. A narrow corridor of higher theta-e air will increase along the surface pressure trough through the day on Monday. With the narrow region of higher theta-e values, the corresponding instabilities will also be located within vicinity of the surface pressure trough. Warmer temperatures on Monday will lead to deeper atmospheric mixing along the order of 2-2.
Lawrence today as high pressure builds to our south. A trough of low pressure will approach tonight and develop low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday.
207 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Showers and a few thunderstorms will move east of the area this evening as a cold front moves through the area. Moisture returns late week with low pressure potentially developing near the coastline leading to a slight chance of rain. Upper level trough over the Ohio Valley south to the Gulf coast is moving east. Showers and a few thunderstorms moving through the east Midlands this afternoon associated with strong moisture flux and isentropic lift along with synoptic forcing with approaching trough. Cold front will be moving through the area by 06z. Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
High pressure then builds in for rest of the week leading to an extended stretch of gorgeous early fall weather. Models also depict the upper level trough going negatively tilted. Then east of the Green Mountains, the closer proximity to the developing coastal low pressure system should allow for more widespread showers to even at times moderate rainfall. Heading into Monday night, cold front pushes through the region with winds switching to the W or NW.
(Thru Tonight) Mostly clear skies and nearby surface ridging will yield below average overnight lows again tonight. In fact, most areas drop even cooler than last night into the 50s by sunrise Monday.
(This afternoon through Monday night) An upper trough extends from Ontario down through the Mississippi River Valley, with a ridge over Mexico that extends up across SE NM/W TX and along the Rockies. Trough moves off Monday as ridge builds east. Temps warming after recent front, especially with ridge moving over the region. Lows tonight mainly in the 60s, lows Monday night a few degree warmer in the 60s with some 70s. After the rain yesterday have dense CU field across most of the region, could see a few afternoon storms in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains with a better chance of storms Monday over the higher elevations.
Discussion: A cold front pushed through the forecast area today, pushing rain off to the east and making for a very pleasant day thus far. For tonight, the upper trough axis doesn't shift east of the area until about daybreak tomorrow morning. Was strongly considering keeping some slight chance PoPs going in the mountains after midnight tonight as H85 flow turns orthogonal to the terrain and the trough axis shifts overhead.
421 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Central CONUS ridge will shift east in the period as a Pac NW trough digs into the west. Warmest day in the period will be Monday as the thermal ridge passes over the region, with 80s and a few 90s expected toward central SD. Western CONUS trough will begin to shift east Tues, shifting a lee-side trough through the region as a cool front.
/NEW/ /Tonight and Tomorrow/ A high pressure ridge will move across the region overnight. Some rural low-lying locations may even fall into the upper 50s! The high will shift east tomorrow and bring a return to south flow. Temperatures will modify first, resulting in afternoon highs a couple degrees warmer than they were today.
817 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Expect increasing clouds, as the last very warm day for awhile gives way to slightly cooler temperatures on Monday.
744 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Low pressure over SE PA this evening will continue to move off to the east. An upper trough and associated cold front will then push across the region on Monday.
828 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 A frontal boundary with an associated low pressure system will move through the region tonight and Monday bringing a round of showers.
526 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 A progressive longwave trough is making its way across the eastern CONUS currently, with the mean axis just to our west.
A progressive longwave trough is making its way across the eastern CONUS currently, with the mean axis just to our west.
753 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 A mid level trough will pivot southeast across the region tonight, bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening before drier conditions evolve. Positively tilted mid level trof over Indiana to pivot slowly east-southeast into western Ohio by 00Z and then across the area overnight. As the mid level trof axis pivots closer to the ILN FA, diurnally driven showers expected to develop late this aftn. As trof axis shifts east clouds to decrease overnight. Lows tonight mainly in the lower 50s. Northwest flow aloft develops as mid level trof shifts off to the east. Highs on Monday to top out in the lower and middle 70s.
551 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) An upper trough extends from Ontario down through the Mississippi River Valley, with a ridge over Mexico that extends up across SE NM/W TX and along the Rockies. Trough moves off Monday as ridge builds east. Temps warming after recent front, especially with ridge moving over the region. Lows tonight mainly in the 60s, lows Monday night a few degree warmer in the 60s with some 70s. After the rain yesterday have dense CU field across most of the region, could see a few afternoon storms in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains with a better chance of storms Monday over the higher elevations.