Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level ridge axis will build in over the area today. Highs of 85 to 95F will be common with the immediate Medford/Grants Pass areas (Medford/Central Point) and the lower Klamath River Valley (Happy Camp) experiencing the warmest readings. Warm and dry conditions will persist through the today under high amplitude ridging aloft. The ridge will gradually slide east, and by Thursday afternoon, the ridge axis will lie over far eastern Lake County, allowing the very broad closed low over the northeast Pacific to nudge just a bit closer to the Pacific northwest, and placing southern Oregon and far northern California under southwest flow.
Current surface analysis indicates dry air advection taking place in the forecast area with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s in southern KY and some upper 40s towards southern Indiana. The morning will be mostly sunny with lows ranging from the low 50s in south-central Kentucky to the mid and upper 40s in southern Indiana under light northeasterly flow.
After a cooler day today, temps Thursday will return to the mid to upper 70s with the exception of colder conditions along the Illinois shoreline. Mild conditions will persist into Thursday evening ahead a cold front approaching from the northwest.
1222 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) This morning an upper ridge stretches from TX to the West Coast with a closed low off of Baja. This low will wobble around today and Thursday but make little eastward progression as high pressure remains over the region. Temperatures will be warmer today in the mid 80s to lower 90s increasing Thursday as 90s become more widespread. Still have decent moisture over the area and ridge not strong enough to suppress all convection especially over the mountains. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher elevations today and tonight as well as some storms may sag into the nrn CWA.
233 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Winds will become light and variable under clear skies this evening, setting the stage for sub-freezing temperatures overnight.
Clear skies and drier conditions are expected this evening in the wake of a passing mid to upper level trough. Ridging builds across the state overnight, allowing for quiet weather to continue into Thursday. Clearer skies and drier conditions should bring warmer temperatures on Thursday with highs progged in mid 80s to lower 90. Increased moisture and rising cloud cover should bring slightly warmer conditions Thursday Night, with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
A cold front will trail south and southwest of this system arriving over the Central Plains Thursday night. The best chance for a strong storm or two may be across our central KS counties late Thu afternoon along the cold front but this should be diurnally driven.
Scattered showers and storms should continue through the overnight hours until a cold front arrives sometime late tonight or early Thursday morning. Increasing moisture behind the front will lead to a stratus-filled morning across the lower elevations, with much cooler temperatures compared to today.
248 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 A cold front is crawling south through the CWA this afternoon, currently extending from central Missouri through south central Illinois. Low to mid-level warm air and moisture advection will increase tomorrow night ahead of the next cold front, keeping low temperatures above average for mid-May. Jaja An upper level trough in south central Canada will deepen as it moves southeast through the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow night.
(The rest of today ) Cloud cover continued to hold across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas at mid morning while a weak upper level trof axis was dropping southeast into the region. the weak upper trof axis will continue to move across the CWA and exit this evening. The combination of weak instability and the passing of the upper trof axis could allow for isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two to develop this afternoon.
134 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Cooler air will continue to spread across the area today keeping high temperatures limited to the 60s. Warmer weather is ahead Thursday with highs around 70 to 75. A cold front was moving across the area early this morning and was spreading cooler air into the region.
18z surface analysis showed a cold front stretching from the Nebraska/Iowa border southeast into the mid- Mississippi River Valley and Ohio River Valley, with a large area of high pressure situated over the Great Lakes. Through tomorrow, the high over the Great Lakes is expected to slowly shift east, allowing a cold front to approach the area from the west later in the day.
310 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 (Issued 310 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023) Tonight through Thursday night: Main concern through this afternoon and into tomorrow is the lingering smoke in the upper levels limiting the high temperature potential. With sunlight still filtering through today and WAA developing in the morning hours Thursday, kept consistency with the high temperatures this afternoon and Thursday. Otherwise, skies remain cloud-free until late Thursday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. Southerly WAA and moisture advection will kick in Thursday morning, raising PW close to an inch immediately ahead of the cold frontal passage Thursday night and leading to widespread showers.
Widespread freezing temperatures are likely tonight. The next chance for measurable rainfall will be with a passing cold front this weekend. Tweaked temperatures downward for tonight, closer to MOS Guidance, which is cooler than NBM, and cooled down interior valleys. Cold front passed through the region early this morning. Behind the front much cooler and breezy conditions are expected with Canadian high pressure building in. High pressure moves overhead tonight and winds will become calm under mostly clear skies. Perfect radiational cooling conditions will allow temperatures to fall below freezing in most areas and some locations could see temperatures into the mid 20s. Highs will generally top out in the low 60s. Previous high pressure center moves east Thursday night advecting south to southeast flow to the region.
Moving forward, during the late overnight into early Thursday, patchy fog development is possible for portions of the area north of I-10, with the higher confidence expected to be for areas along and north of Hwy 84, of course this will be dependent on where storms continue to, or have already developed today thus far (making it slightly higher confidence).
301 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Discussion/Marine/FireWeather - Risk for Frost/Freeze High pressure will dominate the pattern tonight providing cooler than normal temperatures and low surface dewpoints.
Current temperature observations as of 1 PM PDT are generally in the mid 80s to low 90s in the Valley and lower foothills, and in the upper 60s to 80s in the upper foothills and mountains today as upper level ridging allows for warm and dry conditions to prevail.
(Tonight through Thursday night) A few bands of positive vorticity over the southern CWA associated with the passing mid-level trough into the northwest Gulf of Mexico will allow for a slight chance of showers and storms through the rest of this afternoon. Afterwards, ridging aloft will take over and lead to drier air filtering with PWATs dropping to only 1.
207 PM MDT Wed May 17 2023 Smoke from mainly Alberta, Canada moved into northeast Montana this morning with a cold front.
These showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and propagate east- southeastward through this evening with the highest coverage for areas south of the front, generally along and south of I-20. However, the highest risk will likely be relegated farther south toward the Gulf Coast where higher instability is in place. Thursday will be noticeably cooler and largely overcast in the midst of the cool northeasterly flow.
Meanwhile, an upper low will eject along the ridge in the western CONUS and arrive in the region early Thursday. An associated cold front will push through the state, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms for especially Thursday afternoon/evening.
While we certainly aren't dealing with the worst of the smoke (Eastern Montana has seen Air Quality degrade into the Very Unhealthy to even Hazardous at times), the smoke has been thick enough through the atmosphere to keep temperatures quite a bit cooler than originally forecast, with most areas only reaching around 60. Even with this smoke keeping things a bit on the cooler side, we have managed to get a few showers to pop up across far SW'ern Montana and across the North Central Plains.
1232 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 Summary: Today will be the last dry day before a cold front crosses with some rain relief from the recent dry conditions. With greenup still in process, the low RH's will pose a threat for fires to rapidly grow. Attention then turns to the main weather event of the 7 day forecast, a cold front that may bring a few non-severe thunderstorms and widespread rainfall of 0.
A low pressure center developed over northern LA along the cold front which had dipped into our forecast area yesterday, and this low caused the front to stall east of it.
208 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 A cold frontal boundary draped over central North Dakota continues moving to the southeast bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms along with it. In addition to showers and thunderstorms, the cold front is driving areas of smoke to the surface with visibility as low as 1/2 a mile in some locations. Overall, the severe weather threat is expected to remain on the lower end with quarter sized hail and wind gusts of around 60 mph being the primary threats. For Thursday, expect a cooler day with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
1209 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 (Today and tonight) A short wave ridge will develop to our west today ahead of a closed upper low just west of the Baja Peninsula. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy tonight, with light winds and overnight lows mainly in the lower 60s.
With cooler air filtering in, lows should cool into the mid/upper 50s, a bit more chilly than the 60s we've had lately.
A larger scale upper low over the eastern North American domain was in part producing a near zonal west to east flow over the southern lower-48.
High pressure builds in through tonight with northerly winds advecting drier air into the region. Followed model guidance which has cooler temperatures where rain moves in sooner with highs in the lower mid 70s south but up to 80 degrees in the northern sections where rain moves in later in the day.
The light NW flow aloft will continue as the troughing today exits stage right and some mid level ridging builds into TX/OK on Thursday ahead of our next approaching system.
Mostly dry weather and seasonable temperatures will prevail through Thursday with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s.
312 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Dry conditions and warm temperatures continue through Thursday due to high pressure over the Great Lakes region.
722 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Winds diminish later this evening and during the overnight hours, leading to the potential for frost and temperatures to fall to near or below freezing over much of the area. Temperatures moderate through the end of the week before the next chance for rain arrives this weekend with a cold front crossing the region late this weekend. Models have been showing temperatures near and below freezing across the board tonight with some northern valleys touching 20 degrees. Winds take a southerly turn tomorrow afternoon setting up southwesterly flow through the end of the week as high pressure returns. Operational models and ensemble solutions remain in good agreement showing a large anticyclone exiting off the Northeast Coast late this week.
Upper-level ridging is slated to build across the region today.
708 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 High pressure will maintain VFR conditions with mainly clear skies, but a bit hazy with wildfire smoke particles trapped within the high pressure. Northeast to east flow under 10 knots will veer to the southeast and south-southeast with time Thursday as the center of the high pressure shifts gradually to the east-southeast and return flow becomes established around its periphery. Deep layer stability and columnar dryness held within a pervasive 1021 mb high pressure system ensuring another period of benign wx conditions late this afternoon. Cooler resident thermal profile in residence fortified by low level northeast flow, lending to simply modest diurnal temperature recovery despite the high degree of insolation most locations. Underlying environment will support lows broadly distributed in the 30s, with the coldest locations briefly pushing near the freezing mark.
551 PM MDT Wed May 17 2023 Latest analysis shows an upper low over Manitoba swinging an upper trough across the forecast area. A few strong to severe storms are still possible into this evening, with the best chances along and near the cold front over south central South Dakota.
341 PM MDT Wed May 17 2023 Latest analysis shows an upper low over Manitoba swinging an upper trough across the forecast area. A few strong to severe storms are still possible into this evening, with the best chances along and near the cold front over south central South Dakota.
Daytime highs remain warmer across the interior while coastal areas will hold near to slightly below normal highs due to the cooling influence of coastal stratus. Inland, temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 60s to mid 80s under the influence of a ridge of high pressure.
Aside from a dry cold front slowly tracking through the CWA, the forecast period will remain mostly quiet. High pressure continues to remain over the Ohio Valley which has kept skies mostly clear. Clear skies and CAA behind the front will keep temperatures cooler overnight which in turn will favor fog development in the sheltered valleys. In recent model runs, models have moved the trough further north into the Tennessee Valley which would keep lingering PoP in the forecast through Thursday night.
More widespread showers and thunderstorm are possible over the weekend as a low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest.
633 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 Mostly dry weather and seasonable temperatures will prevail through Thursday with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s.
The overnight temperatures are expected to range from the mid to upper 70s, except the lower 70s in the inland regions of the larger islands.
(Now through Thursday) A pair of upper troughs will affect our region through Thursday afternoon. The first trough currently responsible for the ongoing widespread showers and scattered strong/severe thunderstorms is situated over the lower Mississippi River region into the northwest Gulf. This trough will progress slowly eastward tonight into Thursday morning, maintaining the current active weather in play through much of the evening before dissipating from north to south. The axis of the second trough extends westward from Kentucky over southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. This trough will progress faster toward the east compared to the first, and merge with the southern trough moving over our area by late Thursday afternoon. Highs Thursday will be in the low to mid 80s.
As a result, lows will bottom out in the lower 60s in most locations.
423 PM MDT Wed May 17 2023 As I write this around noon, radar is beginning to light up with a scattering of showers and thunderstorms across the area as a cold front sags slowly southward across the state. However, with a slow moving trough continuing to swing through showers and even isolated thunderstorms will likely linger into the evening and even overnight hours. Thursday will be cooler and unsettled day with another scattering of showers and thunderstorms as the trough will still be slowly moving across the Cowboy State. Temperatures should average around 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday.
(This evening through Thursday night) For tonight, showers and thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain of northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado along the vicinity of a surface trof of low pressure will continue tracking east and southeast into the forecast area through tonight. A cold front will move through the region late Thursday night.
620 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) A few bands of positive vorticity over the southern CWA associated with the passing mid-level trough into the northwest Gulf of Mexico will allow for a slight chance of showers and storms through the rest of this afternoon. Afterwards, ridging aloft will take over and lead to drier air filtering with PWATs dropping to only 1.
Anderson (Issued 310 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023) Tonight through Thursday night: Main concern through this afternoon and into tomorrow is the lingering smoke in the upper levels limiting the high temperature potential. With sunlight still filtering through today and WAA developing in the morning hours Thursday, kept consistency with the high temperatures this afternoon and Thursday. Otherwise, skies remain cloud-free until late Thursday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. Southerly WAA and moisture advection will kick in Thursday morning, raising PW close to an inch immediately ahead of the cold frontal passage Thursday night and leading to widespread showers.
Latest analysis shows an upper low over Manitoba swinging an upper trough across the forecast area. A few strong to severe storms are still possible into this evening, with the best chances along and near the cold front over south central South Dakota.
610 PM PDT Wed May 17 2023 Daytime highs remain warmer across the interior while coastal areas will hold near to slightly below normal highs due to the cooling influence of coastal stratus. Inland, temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 60s to mid 80s under the influence of a ridge of high pressure.
1005 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 High pressure will build in from the north tonight, then slowly push off the New England and Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday.
800 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 High pressure will build in from the north tonight after one last front moves south across the region.
635 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 A cold front is crawling south through the CWA this afternoon, currently extending from central Missouri through south central Illinois. Low to mid-level warm air and moisture advection will increase tomorrow night ahead of the next cold front, keeping low temperatures above average for mid-May. Jaja An upper level trough in south central Canada will deepen as it moves southeast through the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow night.
401 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 Weak disturbances are moving through the westerlies across the high plains. A frontal boundary associated with a stronger upper level trough digging southeast out of Canada will interact with increasing low level moisture to initiate areas of showers and embedded thunder Thursday and Thursday night.
933 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Dry conditions and warm temperatures continue through Thursday due to high pressure over the Great Lakes region.
Convection is on the wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating and as a weak cold front brings a somewhat drier low level airmass into the area. A low pressure center developed over northern LA along the cold front which had dipped into our forecast area yesterday, and this low caused the front to stall east of it.
730 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Aviation - Risk for Frost/Freeze High pressure will dominate the pattern tonight providing cooler than normal temperatures and low surface dewpoints.
Interior counties like Polk and Highlands have the highest chances in the late afternoon. and into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico while weak high pressure sits over southern Florida. This flow will favor the highest rain and storm chances over the interior and east coast of Florida each afternoon and evening.
1030 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Winds diminish later this evening and during the overnight hours, leading to the potential for frost and temperatures to fall to near or below freezing over much of the area. Temperatures moderate through the end of the week before the next chance for rain arrives this weekend with a cold front crossing the region late this weekend. Models have been showing temperatures near and below freezing across the board tonight with some northern valleys touching 20 degrees. Winds take a southerly turn tomorrow afternoon setting up southwesterly flow through the end of the week as high pressure returns. Operational models and ensemble solutions remain in good agreement showing a large anticyclone exiting off the Northeast Coast late this week.
718 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Dry conditions and warm temperatures continue through Thursday due to high pressure over the Great Lakes region.
A cold frontal boundary draped over central North Dakota continues moving to the southeast bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms along with it. In addition to showers and thunderstorms, the cold front is driving areas of smoke to the surface with visibility as low as 1/2 a mile in some locations. Overall, the severe weather threat is expected to remain on the lower end with quarter sized hail and wind gusts of around 60 mph being the primary threats. For Thursday, expect a cooler day with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
High pressure ridged across northern Michigan will begin to inch off to our east later tonight resulting in a stronger return southerly flow by Thursday.
Weak disturbances are moving through the westerlies across the high plains. A frontal boundary associated with a stronger upper level trough digging southeast out of Canada will interact with increasing low level moisture to initiate areas of showers and embedded thunder Thursday and Thursday night.
657 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) For tonight, showers and thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain of northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado along the vicinity of a surface trof of low pressure will continue tracking east and southeast into the forecast area through tonight. A cold front will move through the region late Thursday night.
ARS Mostly dry weather and seasonable temperatures will prevail through Thursday with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s.
This system will move southeast across the northern states today with associated cold front pushing southward from Nebraska into Kansas. Storms will develop along this southward moving cold front for this afternoon/evening which looks to only affect central Kansas in our coverage area.
347 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 High pressure moves to off the southern New England coast by late today. Developing coastal low pressure will bring increasing rain chances to portions of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina Friday and Friday night, followed by cold front pushing across the mid-Atlantic region over the weekend. A little better model agreement WRT potential coastal lo pres/trough Fri-Fri night. trough aloft tracks from the Great Lakes to the NE CONUS Sat-Sun. Additional restrictions are then possible ahead of and coincident with a cold frontal passage Sat aftn into Sat night/early Sun.
1228 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) A few bands of positive vorticity over the southern CWA associated with the passing mid-level trough into the northwest Gulf of Mexico will allow for a slight chance of showers and storms through the rest of this afternoon. Afterwards, ridging aloft will take over and lead to drier air filtering with PWATs dropping to only 1.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again today across portions of north Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Most of Friday will be dry, but showers and thunderstorms will move into the area by late afternoon into the overnight hours as a cold front moves across the Mid-South.