Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
233 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Increasing mid/high level clouds are forecast through the night as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Not a whole lot has changed with respect to the timing of the cold front, or with respect to rain chances associated with it. There are some hints that showers may weaken a bit and/or lessen in coverage as the low-level moisture convergence wanes.
234 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Despite some cloud cover and limited instability, an upper low will help pop a few showers and thunderstorms across the area today.
Discussion: The mid/upper low pressure system that has lingered over the area for the past few days will finally move east of the mountains tonight. While mid/upper levels will dry as the trough moves east, the low level air mass will remain stagnant and moist. Models some some afternoon isolated convection in the higher terrain, mainly in NC. Highs should be similar to today, reaching the lower to mid 80s in the Valley.
Dry conditions are expected on Monday as weak ridging builds over the area.
A little cooler today, thunderstorms possible by late The main concern for today will be a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, some of which may produce locally damaging wind gusts. The mid/upper ridge will continue to weaken over the area through tonight, as it shifts a bit farther south and west into northern Mexico. Consequently, temperatures will be a little cooler today, with afternoon highs ranging between 97 and 101 degrees. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s.
Height rises were seen across Florida at all significant levels as weak high pressure builds across our region and shoves the mid to upper level trough that has persisted over the Southeast the past few days slowly westward and further into the Gulf. Despite the higher moisture highlighted on CIMSS MIMIC TPW in the eastern Straits of Florida, a lack of lift will likely inhibit much shower development. From synopsis, weak high pressure over the North Atlantic will result in continued light to gentle, mainly east to southeast breezes through tomorrow morning.
Cloud cover will increase tomorrow ahead of an advancing cold front expected to cross the Mid-South late tomorrow night, bringing rain showers along with it. DNM High pressure will bring a continuation of rain free weather to the Mid-South through tomorrow.
611 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 - Seasonably cooler temperatures through the week, highs in the 70s. Rather agitated WV imagery this afternoon, with several short wave disturbances riding along the weak ridge stretching from the southwest and across the central Plains. A weak H500 short wave trough will assist, providing some support aloft overnight as it rides east-southeast toward the lower Missouri Valley.
610 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) The main weather highlight in the short term period is the continued triple digit temperatures and heat indices across Deep South Texas as the region remains under the influence of mid-level ridging.
606 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2023 20Z analysis shows an upper trough crossing the region this afternoon to the east of an upper ridge building over the western CONUS. Low temperatures will be in the 40s over much of the area, with some 30s over the higher Black Hills.
Amplifying, positively tilted upper trough and slow moving sfc frontal zone with PWATs near 1. Coupled jet structure within the east/southeast side of the incoming upper trough contributes to enhanced upper divergence/deep lift and therefore some localized heavier rainfall amounts.
705 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Aviation Amplifying, positively tilted upper trough and slow moving sfc frontal zone with PWATs near 1. Coupled jet structure within the east/southeast side of the incoming upper trough contributes to enhanced upper divergence/deep lift and therefore some localized heavier rainfall amounts.
633 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 (This evening through Monday) Currently, the upper level ridge remains centered over southeastern AZ/northwestern Mexico, leaving west central Texas under north/northwest flow aloft. So, while isolated storms aren't out of the question farther south, have kept the higher precipitation chances in the Big Country later tonight into Monday morning. Late Monday afternoon, some of the CAMs are also now showing additional thunderstorms developing in or near our area as a cold front surges south into the area. Cooler and wetter pattern to prevail through the weekend.
607 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 A cold front crossing central Illinois late Monday will bring a 60 percent chance for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder.
905 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 (Issued 905 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023) Some showers are trying to push east northeast into area from northeast Iowa, on the leading edge of the main push of upward vertical motion from the 850 mb trough and low level frontogenesis response. Sct showers and storms have developed near the trough over ern IA into nw IL.
An upper level trough continues to extend across much of the eastern CONUS this afternoon. The upper level trough will deamplify tonight into Monday, with light westerly to northwesterly flow generally taking shape into Monday afternoon. Highs Monday will once again range in the lower to mid 90s.
614 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Increasing mid/high level clouds are forecast through the night as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Not a whole lot has changed with respect to the timing of the cold front, or with respect to rain chances associated with it. There are some hints that showers may weaken a bit and/or lessen in coverage as the low-level moisture convergence wanes.
This will likely keep rain amounts on the lower end, generally 0. So what was once a forecast with highs in the 60s is now widespread in the low to mid 70s.
631 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Heat Advisory in effect through early this afternoon Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals a trough across the eastern CONUS and ridging to our west.
544 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 (Tonight) A few light showers have formed along Lookout Mountain this afternoon, but otherwise dry weather is prevailing across the Tennessee Valley as a weak upper-trough swings east of the region. Lows will fall into the low to mid 60s in most locations thanks to some good radiational cooling setting up this evening once cloud cover dissipates.
An upper level trough continues to move across the western North Dakota this afternoon bringing forth showers. Clouds are forecast to increase across the region as the upper level trough progresses eastward today. Showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow as an upper level low passes across northern Minnesota bringing in cyclonic flow aloft to eastern North Dakota. An upper level low will continue to progresses into the Great Lakes region.
816 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 A weakening stalled front will dissolve and be nudged east of the area on Monday with drier conditions expected to start the week, and cooler air on the way for mid-late week. The upper trough overhead does allow for some instability to remain through the next few hours. Lingering cloud cover should hold temps above seasonal averages, especially over the Lower Susq Valley, where GEFS 2m temps are 7-8 degrees above average.
711 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 (Through Monday) Weak upper level troughing and a moderately unstable airmass will allow for isolated to scattered convection for the remainder of this afternoon before diminishing this evening with the loss of instability. Overnight lows tonight are expected to mostly range from the upper 60s to lower 70s with afternoon highs on Monday mostly in the lower 90s.
620 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 High pressure will bring a continuation of rain free weather to the Mid-South through tomorrow.
High pressure is bringing record heat today. All time record September heat today with unseasonably strong high pressure overhead. The ridge is breaking down over the next 48 hours with high pressure reconsolidating well south of the border over the next 48 hours.
Weak ridging will be in place across the waters through the period, with flow becoming E/NE for Monday through the rest of the period.
1059 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 A weakening stalled front will dissolve and be nudged east of the area on Monday with drier conditions expected to start the week, and cooler air on the way for mid-late week. Earlier randomness has congealed nto two clusters of heavier rain with only spase lightning: one in the central ridge-valley region, and another along rte 6 in the nrn tier counties. As the trough aloft slips eastward, we are seeing the rain slide eastward as well. The upper trough overhead does allow for some instability to remain through the next few hours. Lingering cloud cover should hold temps above seasonal averages, especially over the Lower Susq Valley, where GEFS 2m temps are 7-8 degrees above average.
Low temperatures in the lower to middle 60s look on track.
Variation doesn't enter the forecast until the ridge breaks down over the weekend. Weak north flow will prevail tonight as a weak cold front moves inland.
Variation doesn't enter the forecast until the ridge breaks down over the weekend. South winds will eventaully give way to weak north flow tonight as a weak cold front moves through the waters.
Approaching weak cold front from the Pacific will keep the coast cooler and cloudier with periods of drizzle as the front stalls and weakens over the forecast area tonight. Onshore flow keeps temperatures near or slightly below normal Monday through midweek, then high pressure will bring warmer and drier conditions for the latter half of the week.
70-90kt northwesterly upper level jet max on the base of and advancing longer wave trough over the far northern CONUS is nudging the long lasting upper level low off towards east Tennessee. Highs should stretch into the low 80s. Monday night a trough and associated cold front moves in from the northwest. The actual front looks to move through Monday evening, with the precip occurring between the upper trough axis and the surface front.
The main cold front is not expected to arrive until late afternoon with an increase in northeasterly winds and pressures. A surface pressure trough will form near the Texas/New Mexico state line likely enhanced by old outflow boundaries. Westerly winds aloft over the more southeasterly winds in the low levels will favor relatively long hodographs supporting an organized severe weather threat. At mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, a weak short wave trough observed on water vapor imagery will dive to the east-southeast out of southern Colorado/northern New Mexico. Winds aloft will notably increase with the approach of this trough resulting in increasing lift this afternoon. A strong gradient in temperatures may exist today with cooler temperatures north under cloud cover and northerly winds and warmer temperatures to the south under more southerly winds.
229 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Today will be the lone day of the entire forecast that doesn't feature temperatures below normal, with highs topping out in the low to mid 80s. A cold front will swing through the region this evening, turning winds around to the northwest.
205 AM MDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Synoptic Overview: WNW (today) to NW (Monday) flow aloft will prevail over the region -- on the southwestern periphery of an amplifying upper level trough digging southward (from central/interior Canada) into the Upper Midwest, Upper MS River Valley and Upper Great Lakes. Mon-Mon Night: Height-rises/ridging aloft will envelope the region (from west to east) late Monday into Monday night. as the upper trough digging southward into the Upper Midwest/Upper MS River Valley pivots east toward the Great Lakes.
A cold front pushing onshore may create enough lift along the coast the produce drizzle in addition to stratus layer.
The cold front was pushing into south central Kansas behind the initial disturbance. From Dodge City southwest, south and southeast, expect the low clouds to hang in all day. However, the low to mid level baroclinic zone will be south of Kansas so that any rainfall should be confined to areas south of Liberal and Elkhart.
1043 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Increasing mid/high level clouds are forecast through the night as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Not a whole lot has changed with respect to the timing of the cold front, or with respect to rain chances associated with it. There are some hints that showers may weaken a bit and/or lessen in coverage as the low-level moisture convergence wanes.
1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 - Seasonably cooler temperatures through the week, highs in the 70s. Rather agitated WV imagery this afternoon, with several short wave disturbances riding along the weak ridge stretching from the southwest and across the central Plains. A weak H500 short wave trough will assist, providing some support aloft overnight as it rides east-southeast toward the lower Missouri Valley.
(Today and tonight) Our much advertised pattern change has finally arrived as upper ridging finally breaks down, ushering in fall-like temperatures and widespread rain chances across the region. With widespread rain/clouds and a northeasterly breeze behind the cold front, temperatures may struggle to rise out of the 60s today across the northern half of the area, with 70s and a few 80s expected further south near the Red River.
Weak troughing will persist early this week keeping temperatures close to average. Ridging from the eastern Pacific is forecast to build into the region by mid-week resulting in a modest warmup.
353 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Today and Tonight: It will be dry through the period with warmer temperatures. Early morning surface analysis still had a >1018mb ridge oriented northeast to southwest just to our northwest.
(Today) A ridging west/troughing east setup which was in place over the greater North American domain this weekend, should break down into a more zonal pattern for the first portion of this week.
Heights will rise across our area today as brief ridging ahead of the next upper trough builds in.
Water vapour loop had upper ridge building into the northern Plains behind departing upper trough from the upper Midwest into the central Plains.
07Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough swinging mainly north of the forecast area through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a prefrontal trough was almost through east central KS with high pressure over the northern plains. Weak disturbances moving through the base of the upper trough along with some mid level frontogenesis has allowed for some scattered rain this morning.
356 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 An upper level trough will bring showers and a few thunderstorms today. An upper level trough will start pushing in mainly showers across the north central early this morning. Meanwhile, western areas of the state will be close enough to an amplified ridge to the west to keep dry conditions and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies through the day. High temperatures will be cooler than normal and generally in the 60s to areas with showers, and lower 70s across the west.
Cooler fall-like conditions continue into the midweek, then more seasonal conditions return towards the weekend. However, with the lack of forcing, not expecting anything except a few isolated showers along the Buffalo Ridge. Otherwise, expect the fall-like conditions to continue with most areas reaching the low to mid 70s across the area.
A long wave trough will dip southeast to the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early this week.
1254 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (This evening through Monday) Currently, the upper level ridge remains centered over southeastern AZ/northwestern Mexico, leaving west central Texas under north/northwest flow aloft. So, while isolated storms aren't out of the question farther south, have kept the higher precipitation chances in the Big Country later tonight into Monday morning. Late Monday afternoon, some of the CAMs are also now showing additional thunderstorms developing in or near our area as a cold front surges south into the area. Cooler and wetter pattern to prevail through the weekend.
1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Heat Advisory in effect through early this afternoon Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals a trough across the eastern CONUS and ridging to our west.
Temperatures at all available land-based platforms are reporting in the lower to mid 80s. The Florida Keys remain a saddle point between a number of weak synoptic features, including a dissipating stationary front across the Southeast, an anticyclone over the desert Southwest, and a weakening North Atlantic ridge. The ridge will nudge northward today, with low-level flow backing from the southeast to the northeast by late this afternoon.
Cooler than normal temperatures are expected through the first half of the work week, with temperatures rising back to normal by the end of the week.
1205 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) The main weather highlight in the short term period is the continued triple digit temperatures and heat indices across Deep South Texas as the region remains under the influence of mid-level ridging.
825 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 High clouds from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Jova will continue moving over the region through Monday night. The combination of cloud cover and the weakening high pressure to our south will allow for more cooling on Monday. A weak upper level trough hangs out along the West Coast with a few impulses moving through the mean flow through midweek.
410 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 A stalled front will dissolve and be nudged east of the area today, followed by the arrival of a ridge of high pressure tonight. Canadian high pressure will then build southeast into the region for the second half of the week. Cloud cover and only weak low level cold advection over Western PA should result in nearly stationary temps the rest of the night, with readings at daybreak ranging from around 60F over the NW Mtns, to the upper 60s across the Lower Susq Valley. Have included areas of fog early this morning on the ridgetops of Alleghenies based on upslope flow and low cigs at surrounding ASOS locations.
141 AM MDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Weak ridging will shift east across western WY today, bringing increased subsidence, leading to a reduction in thunderstorm chances during the day. Models have been resolving a few showers this afternoon, focused on the highest elevations of the Wind River Range and the far southern Absarokas, but are still expected to be brief and have trouble exiting the higher elevations.
122 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (Through Monday) Weak upper level troughing and a moderately unstable airmass will allow for isolated to scattered convection for the remainder of this afternoon before diminishing this evening with the loss of instability. Overnight lows tonight are expected to mostly range from the upper 60s to lower 70s with afternoon highs on Monday mostly in the lower 90s.
-Light showers move across the area today in response to a cold front.
318 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Stationary front will slowly drift east today with high pressure building in this afternoon.
328 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 The anticipated cold front has entered the CWA. The forecast concerning the cold front (and most of the forecast thereafter) is generally the same as it has been. Unfortunately, the areas with the highest chance at seeing more rain aren't the places that need it the most - southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois top out at D0 drought.
1136 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2023 20Z analysis shows an upper trough crossing the region this afternoon to the east of an upper ridge building over the western CONUS. Low temperatures will be in the 40s over much of the area, with some 30s over the higher Black Hills.
A ridge of high pressure will move over the forecast area today, and slide E tonight.
Once sun rises, any fog that develops will mix out and we will see mostly sunny skies and temperatures are expected to be warmer than the past couple of days. Upper trough will drops out of Canada and into the Great Lakes today into tonight. Warm advection ahead of the front will help push temperatures into the low/mid 80s this afternoon. Clouds will be generally scattered during the day but increase as we go into the late afternoon and evening from the northwest to the southeast as the cold front approaches. With increasing cloud cover and moisture lows will be warmer falling only into the mid/upper 60s.
A high pressure system will continue to bring pleasant and dry weather with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s through today. A cold front is expected move in late tonight bringing back rain chances tomorrow morning through the evening.
Cooler today with a nice week ahead. Nice cool season-looking upper wave will continue to dig down acrs the western GRT LKS and form a cut-off upper low acrs the northwestern GRT LKS on Tue. After the "conveyoring" showers start to shift east and decrease by early to mid afternoon, just some spotty lingering shower activity being kicked up post-frontally into the evening by ongoing upper trof digging process aloft. Overall additional rainfall amounts today after 7 am of a tenth of an inch up to a half inch expected by late afternoon, with the higher amounts centering around and 40 miles south of I80. Much cooler today with precip/cloud/post-frontal effects keeping highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. not much warmer than current temps.
929 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 A stalled front will dissolve and be nudged east of the area today, followed by the arrival of a ridge of high pressure tonight. A cold front will push through the region Tuesday night, then Canadian high pressure will build into the region for the second half of the week. The focus for Tuesday turns to an approaching cold front over the Grt Lks.
239 AM PDT Mon Sep 11 2023 High clouds from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Jova will be with us through tonight. The slightly cooler start to the day, and the expected return of high clouds, should cap max temps a little lower most areas, than those logged yesterday. We continue with low POPs as well, mainly over the mountains, where the higher elevations have a better chance of light, measurable rainfall.
456 AM PDT Mon Sep 11 2023 A dry, weak cold front will move across the Bay Area this evening into Tuesday morning, which will bring breezier westerly winds and will mix out the marine layer. Slightly cooler temperatures expected Tuesday. It will be breezy, however, as a dry, weak cold front moves through the Bay Area overnight into Tuesday.
Today will be the lone day of the entire forecast that doesn't feature temperatures below normal, with highs topping out in the low to mid 80s. A cold front will swing through the region this evening, turning winds around to the northwest. Lingering shower activity will depart as the upper level trough axis moves through by later in the day. The highest probability of receiving more than a tenth of an inch seems to be across southeast MO or southern IL. This combined with a few showers around will limit highs to the low to mid 70s.
and Tuesday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front draped from Nebraska to northeast Wisconsin early this morning. Think max temps will be slightly cooler than the NationalBlend today and Tuesday.
A deep trough diving over the Northern Plains will influence our region by advecting midlevel dry air over northern portions of the forecast area today. Daytime heating should spark convection off the higher terrain around mid day. Showers will track southeastward off the higher terrain affecting some of the surrounding valleys.