Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Our local weather pattern continues to transition into the usually more typical SE wind flow as upper trough finally weakens and upper ridging builds back over the FL Peninsula. While at the surface the W Atlantic high pressure axis stretches into the Deep South while a weak tropical wave moves through the region for extra lift Thursday for increased afternoon rainfall coverage for parts of coastal drought areas.
Muscha (This evening through Thursday night) A slight weakening of the 500mb high pressure center continues to track across a majority of the models for today and tomorrow. On the side of more active weather, the weakening of the ridge does provide better chances for afternoon showers developing off the Southern Rockies to move into the northwestern portion of the Panhandles.
(Today and tonight) Thicknesses edge lower today as an upper high over New Mexico flattens while becoming more elongated. Much of this process stems from a few impulses rotating clockwise around the high from AZ to CO complete with monsoonal convection; however, with the zonal ridge axis parked over the southern TX Panhandle none of this activity should threaten our area through tonight.
An upper level ridge continues to push east across the United States and produce a hot and generally dry forecast for the Mid- South. (Today through Wednesday) A low pressure system that has tracked through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region produced a few light rounds of isolated showers this overnight across the Mid-South. The main story for this forecast is a 600 dam ridge continuing to move east across the United States. Current 500 mb heights are showing small weakening signals, but the ridge is anticipated to reamplify.
Center of 599DM ridge is parked near the Four Corners to West Texas, with the Gulf Coast to Mid South remaining on the eastern periphery. /DC/ This Afternoon through Tomorrow: High pressure and upper-level ridging will prevail over the region today into tomorrow - resulting in mostly dry conditions through at least tomorrow morning.
1024 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 (This evening through Thursday) An ~600 dam 500 mb ridge centered across New Mexico will continue to be the primary influence on the weather across the Southern Plains.
Though the upper level high continues to remain centered over the southern Rockies and New Mexico, we will continue to stay under its influence. Some high clouds will once again be possible as upper level moisture and high clouds continue to stream southwestward around the periphery of the high. Conditions tonight will be very similar to previous nights with lows in the low to mid 70s and mostly clear skies expected.
Current thinking is for little to none of this to reach the surface as drier air remained between the surface and the high based cloud layer. the vort max within the low level jet is progged to continue to push eastward with possibly the southern periphery of the impulse clipping the northern portion of the CWA into the early afternoon hours. again with the drier air in place up to the high based cloud layer. as the dome of high pressure continues to hold over the Southern Plains.
328 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 Today and Tonight: Continued hot and mostly dry through the period as ridging surface and aloft continues to dominate.
1239 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) The latest RAP 500mb heights depict a nearly 600 dm ridge centered over northern New Mexico this afternoon. The ridge has flattened just a bit and moved a smidge further northwest over the last couple days, hence the "slightly" cooler temperatures and lack of heat headlines so far this week. With weak ENE flow on the eastern periphery of the ridge, we may see some seabreeze showers and isolated thunderstorms work inland over the Coastal Plains and perhaps as far north and west as Wilson and and Gonzales counties.
This will support a slightly higher coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms in those locations compared to the last couple of days with the highest chances across the southeast big bend around Dixie county.
1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (This evening through Thursday) A large upper ridge continues to bring hot and dry conditions across the region. High temperatures similar to yesterday in the low 100s are expected.
Most areas along and south of US 2 should see some rain tonight from this system as a cold front moves through the area.
We are definitely waking up to a more humid morning with cloudy skies and temps already in the low to mid 80's. Some good news is that the cloudy skies and high rain chances will keep the temps a few degrees cooler than we have seen over the past few days topping off close to average in the low 90's. High pressure near Bermuda will ridge westward over Florida producing a predominant easterly wind flow over the gulf waters through the end of the week and into the weekend. This will produce scattered to numerous showers and storms moving from east to west with the highest chances during the evening hours over the eastern gulf waters.
In the immediate term (through 8a this morning), mostly clear skies are expected with temps bottoming out in the low 70s. Ridging is progged to continue building through the day, with the 500 hPa ridge over the south-central US finally starting to connect with the ridge over the Atlantic Ocean. Despite more moister in the lower atmosphere, the resulting rising height should keep any convection that does form isolated or widely scattered similar to the past couple of days. Mostly clear skies and lows in the low 70s with patchy fog developing near sunrise. Friday and Friday night: Upper ridging remains strong over the forecast area with the upper jet stream confined across the northern tier states and southern Canada.
PWAT values will be on the lower side given the dry airmass, and Saharan Dust coupled with that will inhibit cloud development for the most part. Pockets of areas with slightly higher PWAT values (mostly south of I-10 and west of I-45) will have the highest chances of precipitation this afternoon primarily along and ahead of the sea/bay breeze. An inverted trough moving through South TX/Northern Mexico will help keep temperatures slightly cooler as it nudges the dominant ridge westward and 500mb heights lower in response.
I have upgraded the eastern half of the CWA to an Excessive Heat Warning as dewpoints are expected to stay in the lower to mid 70s this afternoon and the lower 70s on Friday afternoon. Then mainly dry weather is expected over the area as the large upper ridge dominates our area.
- Lightly warmer temperatures today with highs climbing into the mid to upper 90s (excluding GA mtns). The CWA remains situated between the persistent, now flattened upper ridge to the west and ridging to our east. At the surface, high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern for North and Central GA. Temperatures will be a tad warmer this afternoon with high temperatures climbing into the 90s (outisde of the GA mtns). The Bermuda High to our east will continue to fill in with the persistent upper ridge to the west resulting in quasi-zonal flow aloft.
A weak upper trough (TUTT) is located over Dry Tortugas NP and is providing some weak upper diffluence over the trough to support lift for shower and storm development. Strongest reflectivity returns have been fairly low centroid, and freezing levels are up around 15KFT. Places near and west of Orlando have the highest chance of reaching 90 or warmer.
634 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across the southern Plains today with hot and dry conditions. Models do show less veering in the low level flow today, which may aid in keeping dewpoints a bit higher. Expect to see more convection develop across the High Plains and then move east across Kansas overnight.
(Today through Friday Night ) Very warm conds were noted acrs the Natural State early this mrng, with predawn temps ranging fm the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
As the shallow high pressure slides eastward off the region today, sunny skies, southerly winds, and extremely warm conditions are expected.
632 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (Today and tonight) Thicknesses edge lower today as an upper high over New Mexico flattens while becoming more elongated. Much of this process stems from a few impulses rotating clockwise around the high from AZ to CO complete with monsoonal convection; however, with the zonal ridge axis parked over the southern TX Panhandle none of this activity should threaten our area through tonight.
While the upper ridge flattens today with more westerly, zonal flow aloft, heights are high and H85 temps are in the +26 to +28C range. This will mean more heat and humidity with another heat advisory issued for this afternoon as heat indices climb into the lower 100s with air temps in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. This trough and cold air advection will bring more showers and thunderstorms.
(Today through Friday) An inverted trough will approach the area today and move across South Texas tonight into Friday. However, there is a slight chance (10- 20% chance) that some of this activity can make it further inland Friday afternoon as the trough axis moves over South Texas and the seabreeze pushes inland. With tomorrow being slightly cooler than today and the increased cloud cover, heat indices across all of South Texas are expected to remain below 110 degrees with only isolated areas reaching the 110 degree threshold.
616 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 Today and Tonight: Continued hot and mostly dry through the period as ridging surface and aloft continues to dominate.
(Today and tonight) Stratus is a bit patchy over land as of 3 to 4 am, but the trend indicates the low clouds will be filling in as we approach sunrise. Afternoon highs closer to the coast will range in the upper 50s to upper 70s while the interior ranges in the 80s to 90s with a few of the "hot spots" (like Parkfield) getting into the low 100s.
620 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (Today through Friday) An inverted trough will approach the area today and move across South Texas tonight into Friday. However, there is a slight chance (10- 20% chance) that some of this activity can make it further inland Friday afternoon as the trough axis moves over South Texas and the seabreeze pushes inland. With tomorrow being slightly cooler than today and the increased cloud cover, heat indices across all of South Texas are expected to remain below 110 degrees with only isolated areas reaching the 110 degree threshold.
616 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (Today through Friday) The upper ridge over the southern United States continues to slowly expand eastward across the Central Gulf Coast region. However, there is a mid level trof axis currently across Tennessee that is associated with a short wave trough over the New England states. The Tennessee trough has produced light showers over northwest Alabama overnight. These showers will likely fizzle out by sunrise and do not expect any additional rain as the trof weakens and becomes stationary.
The axis of the tropical wave/inverted troff is currently sitting over the Florida Keys and coastal waters, residing somewhere between the middle and lower Keys.
618 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (Today through Friday) While an inverted trough moves into southern Texas/northern Mexico by Friday, an expansive Subtropical Ridge remains the dominant feature. A subtle "cooling" due to the inverted trough is expected, however above normal high temperatures continue. Due to subsidence underneath the Ridge, no rain is expected, with the exception of a few showers and thunderstorms near the Coastal Plains each afternoon with passage of the seabreeze.
This will allow temperatures to surge into the mid to upper 90s as the upper level ridge builds further northeastward. Leaned toward the higher NAM for those which has mid to upper 70s. This is where the highest instability will be today, with SBCAPE of at least 3000-4000 J/kg. The ridge strengthens further over the region on Friday. May have a few readings near 115 today given the higher dewpoints.
619 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 An upper level ridge continues to push east across the United States and produce a hot and generally dry forecast for the Mid- South.
In the upper levels a 598 dm high is located over central New Mexico and winds on the north side of the high remain westerly in the central and northern plains. Otherwise these storms should fade through the night with the loss of heating and probably be done by the time they reach the highway 83 corridor. As the high moves into the central plains this will less the chances of storms as there will be little to no upper level winds to steer the storms out of the Rockies.
Spotty showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly across the higher elevations and northeast Tennessee/southwest Virginia. Discussion: We remain between an anomalous upper-level ridge across the Southern Plains and ridging across the western North Atlantic. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible across the higher elevations this afternoon between 21z and 01z, but PoPs are expected to max out at slight chance with limited synoptic forcing and a relatively dry airmass and generally poor lapse rates.
High pressure will remain across the region, shifting slightly which will bring cooler temperatures and off and on chances for precipitation. The high will remain near Four Corners through the weekend.
This will combine with dewpoints into the lower to mid 70s to push heat indices into the 100 to 105 range at times this afternoon. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices again in excess of 100 degrees, possibly pushing up above 105 degrees. Upper level ridging remains in place at the start of the extended with weak disturbances moving through the larger flow, riding along the periphery of the ridge.
540 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 Strong ridging and hot and humid temperatures will remain for the short term.
Gusts across Sierra ridgetops could exceed 50 mph at times.
As the combined Panhandles remain under the influence of the upper ridge(though it does appear to be starting to weaken some), temperatures will once again flirt with, or slightly exceed, the 100 degree mark. Thanks to some weakening of the upper ridge, we have a slightly better shot at some convection today, in the northwest Panhandles. Another warm day is expected for Friday, with the center of the upper ridge across roughly the Four Corners region.
615 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) The upper ridge centered over NM stretches from the Pacific to the Atlantic covering the southern half of the country. The high will spin around in place today with the 597 high expanding into CO Friday. An inverted trough over the Gulf moves into Mexico and S TX Friday.
Another lake breeze may keep temperatures near Lake Superior cooler, around 10 degrees cooler than more inland locations. Friday the surface cold front/trough sags south of the forecast area, and with the northeast surface flow and cloud cover from the convection south of the forecast area temperatures will be cooler, which will linger through the weekend.
Some of the high-res models fire off a few more storms in that region later this afternoon, and will keep a mention of isolated storms east central/southeast Illinois.
635 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (Today through Friday Night ) Very warm conds were noted acrs the Natural State early this mrng, with predawn temps ranging fm the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
Good morning ArkLaMiss! Another hot and mostly dry day is on tap across the region as an upper ridging pattern dominates the Lower Mississippi Valley region. /AJ/ Today and Tonight: Continued hot and mostly dry through the period as ridging surface and aloft continues to dominate.
1149 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) The upper ridge centered over NM stretches from the Pacific to the Atlantic covering the southern half of the country. The high will spin around in place today with the 597 high expanding into CO Friday. An inverted trough over the Gulf moves into Mexico and S TX Friday.
Damaging winds with updrafts tapping into elevated dry air aloft above the freezing lvl will be the main threat; DCAPE values based on the RAP analysis range between 1000J/kg to 1400J/kg south of I-70. Dry, hot conditions through Friday are likely as the ridge to our west rebuilds across the region.
A cool front will back into the region later tonight into Friday morning, leading to a return to near, or slightly cooler than, average temperatures through the weekend.
Currently, an inverted troff/tropical wave is transiting the Florida Keys and coastal waters, moving slowly westward. To the southeast of the lower Keys, skies are still mostly clear, and should remain thus for the next few hours. However, showers and storms should fill in and impact the lower Keys as well by late afternoon and evening. Overnight, the Keys will be on the backside of the trough, and winds will swing out of the southeast and pick up a few knots.
(This evening through Friday) Models are consistently showing high pressure remaining across the region. However, the high pressure will be a bit weaker than we saw a few days ago.
1210 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (Today through Friday) While an inverted trough moves into southern Texas/northern Mexico by Friday, an expansive Subtropical Ridge remains the dominant feature. A subtle "cooling" due to the inverted trough is expected, however above normal high temperatures continue. Due to subsidence underneath the Ridge, no rain is expected, with the exception of a few showers and thunderstorms near the Coastal Plains each afternoon with passage of the seabreeze.
1219 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 Good morning ArkLaMiss! Another hot and mostly dry day is on tap across the region as an upper ridging pattern dominates the Lower Mississippi Valley region. /AJ/ Today and Tonight: Continued hot and mostly dry through the period as ridging surface and aloft continues to dominate.
A break from the heat will arrive Friday, with cooler temps at 850mb and a slight northwest tilt to the flow aloft. Temperatures then warm through the weekend as a ridge build back in along with warmer 850mb temps.
1208 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (The rest of today ) Current forecast in good shape with persistent upper ridging the main forecast feature.
(Tonight) A rather toasty afternoon across the Tennessee Valley as afternoon temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 90s. Will feel little relief overnight as low temperatures only fall into the low to mid 70s.
1202 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across the southern Plains today with hot and dry conditions. Models do show less veering in the low level flow today, which may aid in keeping dewpoints a bit higher. Expect to see more convection develop across the High Plains and then move east across Kansas overnight.
(This evening through Friday) The large-scale pattern remains unchanged from previous days with an upper level ridge dominating over the area.
1240 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (Today through Friday Night ) Very warm conds were noted acrs the Natural State early this mrng, with predawn temps ranging fm the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
(This evening through Friday night) High pressure is building in over the area still, keeping rain chances fairly low. So, if you hear thunder, go indoors! Some locally heavy rainfall is possible Friday inside of stronger storms, thanks to the higher PW and humidity values. For tonight and tomorrow, temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values in the low 100s.
A cold front will bring a bit of relief from the heat this weekend. Typical summer upper level ridge of high pressure is centered across New Mexico today. This feature will aid in scattered high based convection moving eastward off the higher terrain into the Panhandle this evening. A cold front will be progressing southward into the central Sandhills by late afternoon.
(This afternoon through Friday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over New Mexico this afternoon, resulting in continued warm conditions over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. To the southeast, an inverted trough is set to move onshore in south Texas/northern Mexico over the next 24 hours. This will nudge the ridge a bit west, decreasing thicknesses over the region Friday afternoon, shaving a degree or two off today's highs. Lows tonight/Friday night will similarly be cooler than of late, mainly due to a lesser nocturnal LLJ, which will allow for a little less mixing and a little more radiational cooling. Unfortunately, grids will stay dry through Friday night, and at least until the inverted trough pushes a little farther up the Rio Grande Valley.
An upper level trough won't move much parked off the Pacific Northwest coast with upper level ridging to our east.
The Bermuda high ridges westward across northern Florida keeping a predominant easterly wind flow over the region through the forecast period. Hot and muggy conditions will persist with daytime highs in the low to mid 90's with heat indices reaching 102-107 degrees, which is just below heat advisory criteria. High pressure near Bermuda will ridge westward over Florida producing a predominant easterly wind flow over the gulf waters through the end of the week and into the weekend. This will produce scattered to numerous showers and storms moving from east to west with the highest chances during the evening hours over the eastern gulf waters.
Spotty showers or thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon, mainly across the higher elevations and northeast Tennessee/southwest Virginia. Discussion: In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Southwest and Southern Great Plains. Another ridge is to the east in the Atlantic. High pressure remains over the Southeast. Shower and thunderstorm chances are slightly higher tomorrow afternoon than today but still confined to the higher elevations, NE TN and SW VA.
1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 Strong ridging and hot and humid temperatures will remain for the short term.
The northeast quadrant of the anticyclone was quite dirty, with infrared satellite imagery depicting a fair amount of mid and high clouds. The hottest temperature/dewpoint combination and the highest heat indices will focus on the northeast zones, where heat index values of 105-109 are expected by 4 pm. As the high moves into the central plains this will less the chances of storms as there will be little to no upper level winds to steer the storms out of the Rockies.
Upper level ridge centered offshore will build west over the area this afternoon and overnight will be a limiting factor for convection. Thunderstorm probabilities appear lower than yesterday as triggers lacking combined with a stronger mid level cap due to ridge aloft.
1212 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 A 600 dam ridge centered over New Mexico will push further into the Mid-South this afternoon. Temperatures are currently in the upper 80s but expected to increase and reach the mid 90s this afternoon with the expansion of the ridge. An upper level ridge continues to push east across the United States and produce a hot and generally dry forecast for the Mid- South.
(The rest of today ) Current forecast in good shape with persistent upper ridging the main forecast feature.
Upper level ridge centered offshore will build west over the area this afternoon and overnight will be a limiting factor for convection. Thunderstorm probabilities appear lower than yesterday as triggers lacking combined with a stronger mid level cap due to ridge aloft. Friday and Friday night: Upper ridging remains strong over the forecast area with the upper jet stream confined across the northern tier states and southern Canada.