Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The main focus today continues to be the heat as we remain on the eastern edge of a strong upper high/ridge centered over the southern Plains. This ridge will slowly begin to break down today as an upper trough digs across the northern Atlantic Coastal region, and nudges the aforementioned high farther west. As the upper trough shifts southeast, a weak front will push south through the Ohio Valley.
A day of cooler temperatures is expected with highs in the 80s.
Heating and orographic flow up the higher terrain will allow for isolated afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorms over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. The Subtropical Ridge shifts to the southwestern states on Sunday allowing for northerly flow aloft to bring a cold front south into Central Texas by late afternoon.
Those storms will bring some relief from the heat and will likely keep us slightly cooler than what we saw today. Of course, that's all relative because at most, we'll only be a degree warmer than yesterday.
The cold front will push through most of the region this afternoon, but disturbances in the northwest flow will keep a chance of convection over the region tonight and Sunday.
Key Messages: - A pleasant weekend is expected as high temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s. The cooler, drier air mass will yield high temperatures in the low 80s and dewpoint temperatures near 60 degrees.
It's possible some areas of the south central into southeast reach the lower 80s, but most will remain in the 70s, a couple readings in the upper 60s can't be ruled out either near the International Border. high pressure will continue to settle over the area and will be situated over central and eastern ND.
Sturdy high pressure overhead should keep light upper level winds and the pool of tropical moisture locked in place through tomorrow. Afternoon temperatures will warm a touch Saturday thanks to more sunshine, especially eastern Utah and the low valleys along the state line where temperatures will climb back into the 90's. The SubTropical High axis will be swinging West of the Southern Rockies Divide by mid day Sunday as low pressure continues to dig into the eastern half of the country.
A deep upper level trough will remain stationed along the Pacific Northwest coast through the short-term, generating ripples in the southwest flow aloft to form thunderstorms through the weekend.
(Today and tonight) As of 130 AM, the cold front is located near the southern Texas Panhandle and should be through at least our northern zones before sunrise. The upper high will be overhead through much of the day and will help suppress convection along the front. The upper high is progged to push to our west by the late afternoon/early evening.
1217 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Mid-level high pressure system sitting over the northern portion of the Southern Plains. Within the next 24 hours the high will retrograde to the west over New Mexico by tomorrow evening. A weak cold front will move through the forecast area early tomorrow morning. No mentionable PoPs are in the forecast but an area of 10 to 15 PoPs were added to the forecast tomorrow afternoon for the low probability of an isolated shower or storm.
137 AM MDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Strong ridge w/ heights near 590dam continues its hold over the northern high plains. A little warmer than normal for the last week of August.
1209 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 (Rest of tonight) Another rather steamy night is upon us here in the TN Valley, with temperatures at 9 PM generally in the low/mid 80s and dew points in the mid/upr 70s.
Winds from the northeast will keep high temperatures in the low 70s and humidities noticeably lower.
Otherwise, conditions will be dry and sunny as the region warms up underneath an area of high pressure.
Cooler weather finally arrives. Heating up into the weekend Confidence Short Term: High Boundary with associated low south into Missouri and cooler air slowly working south into the region now. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s north to the lower to mid 80s over the remainder of the region. Tonight high pressure and partly cloudy conditions will spread over the region. With light winds tonight, temperatures will drop into the mid 50s north to the lower 60s in the south.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible into Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. short wave energy rounding the top of the ridge over southern Ontario will assist in carving an upper trough across the eastern US. This trough will cause height falls that will suppress the upper high responsible for the extended excessive heat southward. The upper ridge will continue to be suppressed westward throughout this period.
Current temperatures along the island chain range in the lower to mid 80s with some inland areas (like our office) making it below 80 with winds just calm enough for some radiative cooling to occur. Ridging over the southeast CONUS continues to promote north to northeasterly winds and will continue to push the swath of drier air over our area. Tonight a trough noses in over the Bahamas while the ridging weakens, slackening winds overnight thus allowing for another chance at radiational cooling.
152 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Aviation - Risk for a few showers this evening A cold front will be tracking south through the zones tonight.
A diffuse frontal zone extends across southern NE into southwest IA, but as the low intensifies the frontal zone has seen a tightening thermal gradient and strengthening northerly flow on the cool side. This will continue through the evening and will finally usher in that much cooler airmass as the low tracks across KS tonight.
It will remain cooler to the east today while becoming warmer to the west, with forecast highs ranging from the lower 70s to mid 80s.
High pressure will strengthen over the Northern Rockies today. Temperatures will begin to climb today as a result of strengthening high pressure.
Given that most model ensemble families are indicating the chances for showers and thunderstorms are radically diminished from Saturday, leaned toward the warmer end of the PDF curve and kept temps in the mid and upper 80s across the CWA.
Dewpoints will finally return to the low 60s / upper 50s by this evening behind the mentioned front, and result in comfortable Sunday weather to wrap up the weekend.
Sunday will be warmer but still unseasonably cool. Given these uncertainties will therefore trend towards to cooler 10-25th percentile temperatures guidance for highs today where SREF probabilities have a greater than 60% for ceilings through 21z, especially ahead and just north of the slow moving upper wave as it crosses southwest Kansas given the mid level moisture and 700mb forcing. Not only will these locations have the best chance for cloudy skies and cooler temperatures but these areas will also have the better chances for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The higher probabilities for rainfall to exceed 0. Clouds will be on the decrease on Sunday as an area of high pressure builds into western Kansas.
323 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance Key Messages: -Cooler air to return this weekend, no hazardous weather expected at this time.
Otherwise storms will mainly be over the higher terrain Saturday afternoon and evening and remain south of the other TAF sites.
Meanwhile, a weak cold front stretches from central Wisconsin down across eastern Iowa this morning. The northerly breeze will also aid keeping conditions a bit cooler today with highs in the middle 70s near the IL/WI state line to the lower 80s south of I-80. Sunday will be another quiet day for us with a large center of high pressure dropping into Great Lakes from Ontario keeping conditions sunny and dry. This high will relax the near-surface pressure gradient and bring light winds to the area for Sunday. But persistent northerly flow will knock temperatures back a few degrees from Saturday with highs forecast in the lower and middle 70s.
1039 PM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 High pressure aloft continues across the south central Plains. Upper ridging extends into the northern Rockies as it slides eastward toward the northern Plains. Ridge-riding waves are slowly crossing the central High Plains into Nebraska/southern SD. Northerly surface winds have brought cooler temps to the CWA. Return flow will bring warmer temperatures back in, with highs generally in the 80s.
On Sunday, warmer air will move back in ahead of the next front.
Additional showers and some strong to potentially severe storms may develop this afternoon ahead of a cold front. This activity, along with cloud coverage may keep temperatures more subdued than what we've been forecasting, but no need to celebrate, because even if temperatures are a couple of degrees cooler, dewpoints will remain high. With a cold front having pushed through our area by early Sunday morning, temperatures are expected to be several degrees cooler. (Sunday Night through next Saturday) An upper trough positioned over the northeast U.
Monsoon moisture will dwindle over the coming days as high pressure moves over Arizona. Moisture remains in place over Arizona as high pressure builds westward into New Mexico today. The greatest coverage will mainly be over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Heights maximize over Arizona on Sunday with the ridge directly overhead. However, activity will be mainly isolated and limited to the higher terrain.
On Sunday, a trough dropping south from Canada will clip the state, bringing a cold front to areas mainly east of the Divide.
A feeder band is approaching and moving into the Lower Texas Coastal Waters. Aside from the aforementioned feature, mid-level ridging centered over North Texas remains strong, and will shift slowly west in the short term, but will have a lesser impact on the region than the transiting upper feature. Saturday will see slightly warmer than normal temperatures, in the upper 90s to slightly above the century mark.
Winds swing around to more southerly through the day on Sunday, bringing warmer air into at least western portions of the forecast area.
1121 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 A cold front will move across Pennsylvania this afternoon and evening, bringing isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to primarily the Susquehanna Valley and points east. High pressure, over South Central Canada, will build southeast and bring a mainly dry weekend with noticeably more comfortable humidity.
406 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 A secondary cold front extending from Southern Lower Michigan to the North shore of Lake Ontario early this morning will drift southeast and cross the region late today and tonight with little more than some clouds and perhaps a few isolated showers across the Northern Mountains of Pennsylvania and Susquehanna Valley. High pressure will build southeast from the Lower Great Lake to New England in the wake of this front, bringing us dry conditions with much lower daytime humidity on Sunday.
205 AM MDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Upper high continues to dominate over the central and southern plains for today, with northwest flow aloft our region. At the surface, high pressure sits over the Dakotas and will begin moving east of the forecast area this morning, bringing return flow into the region and slightly warmer temperatures.
347 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Key Messages: * Cooler air has arrived, bringing a welcome break from the triple digit heat we experienced this past week.
Much warmer temperatures are expected over the weekend along with areas of haze.
Latest observations indicate that the highest winds may be just off the surface at 2K feet and not mixing down to the surface. Another potentially dangerous hot day in place for Saturday as high pressure aloft remains in control. Despite the high pressure, a stationary front positioned over central Kentucky will provide some chances for more rounds of thunderstorms for Saturday afternoon and evening. Model soundings show plenty of instability aloft and moisture, but shear values are lacking due to low wind aloft with the high pressure area. By later this afternoon/evening, northerly winds associated with the cooler air mass will make temperatures a bit cooler headed towards the rest of Saturday and into Sunday.
1211 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 (This evening through Saturday) The center of the upper level high will continue to weaken as it shifts west towards New Mexico. Some of the High res models are a bit more enthusiastic with the coverage this afternoon and evening than others.
1231 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 (The rest of tonight) At mid evening the mid/upper level high pressure center was located just west of Eastern Oklahoma. riding over the top of the mid/upper level ridge. the surface to low level frontal boundary is progged to sag southeast reaching into Northeast Oklahoma late tonight/early morning Saturday as the upper level high pressure center stays off to the west.
Tonight and Saturday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show cold front dropping southeast across western Lake Superior an about to move into northwest Wisconsin early this afternoon.
The persistent mid/upper ridge that has been sprawling across the central CONUS is progged to break down over the weekend as a mid/upper trough deepens over the Great Lakes area. Afternoon highs are expected to top out in the upper 80s/around 90 Seasonable temperatures early in the week are expected to rise as we move into the latter portion of the week as the mid/upper ridge returns to the central CONUS. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue moving east through central and eastern Kansas overnight into early Saturday, as a cold front and upper level disturbance move through the region. Strong or severe storms are no longer expected, although stout and gusty northwest winds will accompany the cold frontal passage from NW-SE overnight.
1035 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 A weak cold front will drift southeast and cross the region late today and tonight with little more than some clouds and perhaps a few isolated showers across the northern mountains of Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna Valley. High pressure will slide from the Lower Great Lakes into New England in the wake of this front, bringing us dry conditions with much lower daytime humidity on Sunday.
539 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 A secondary cold front extending from Southern Lower Michigan to the North shore of Lake Ontario early this morning will drift southeast and cross the region late today and tonight with little more than some clouds and perhaps a few isolated showers across the Northern Mountains of Pennsylvania and Susquehanna Valley. High pressure will build southeast from the Lower Great Lake to New England in the wake of this front, bringing us dry conditions with much lower daytime humidity on Sunday.
642 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance Key Messages: -Cooler air to return this weekend, no hazardous weather expected at this time.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible today into Sunday as a cold front moves through the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were developing across the Ozarks early this morning, likely in response to upper level short wave energy moving along the eastern periphery of the retreating ridge. Temperatures will not be as hot as the past few days thanks to cloud cover, the cold front and rain potential but is still expected to climb into the upper 80s to lower/middle 90s. Showers and isolated storms will continue into the tonight but will lose severe potential with the loss of diurnal heating and as the cold front continues to progress to the south.
Fully entrenched in a moist, unstable air mass underneath a still present (but weakening!) upper level ridge, heat index values peak at 105-110 this afternoon. For the most part, these showers will be moreso the result of an approaching remnant outflow boundary than the weakening subsidence from the persistent ridging. While any storm development from this system should stay north of our area, steering flow around the receding ridge may cause it to take a more southerly track.
Surface analysis depicts a weak ridge extending from the western Atlantic across north Florida and along the northern Gulf coast, with a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean and Tropical Storm Franklin a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Have updated the forecast to remove PoPs through the rest of the day for the Lower and Middle Keys. From the synopsis, ridging over the Southeast will continue to slowly weaken over the next couple days, as a trough develops over the Eastern Seaboard and the Western Atlantic waters, resulting in breezes slackening through the weekend.
605 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 (Today and tonight) As of 130 AM, the cold front is located near the southern Texas Panhandle and should be through at least our northern zones before sunrise. The upper high will be overhead through much of the day and will help suppress convection along the front. The upper high is progged to push to our west by the late afternoon/early evening.
516 AM MDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Upper high continues to dominate over the central and southern plains for today, with northwest flow aloft our region. At the surface, high pressure sits over the Dakotas and will begin moving east of the forecast area this morning, bringing return flow into the region and slightly warmer temperatures.
The large upper level ridge that brought record heat will retreat to the western U. through Sunday morning, which will allow a cold front to move through the Midsouth tonight.
This will be thanks to some perturbations around the the E side of the upper ridge over the W US into AL.
422 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Today through tonight: Although the upper level ridge continues to weaken, the low level thermal ridge will peak in intensity over the forecast area today ahead of an approaching cold front, and this will bring the potential for additional record highs.
404 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 (Issued 404 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023) Today through Sunday night: The cold front is currently moving swd across srn WI and nly winds and cold advection will continue to increase through the morning. A large high pressure area over srn Canada will reach the Lake Superior region this evening then slowly shift south into srn WI by later Sunday. Drier air will follow the weak trough for Sunday with a pleasant summer day forecast.
3) Temperatures will remain on the cooler side today but will gradually warm toward seasonal normals by Sunday. Discussion: In the wake of the widespread showers with embedded heavy rain cores that impacted SE Wyoming and the southern Nebraska Panhandle, a slow moving ridge axis will begin to shift to the east toward the Intermountain West.
Drizzly/Rainy start to the weekend with cooler temperatures Saturday 2. The anticyclonic circulation around the high pressure is providing east/northeasterly winds off the lake. This will give a short break from the end of summer warm temperatures with highs in the low to mid 60s for much of the area with upper 60s near the Brainerd Lakes region. If this scenario happens then it may not reach the high temperatures currently forecasted. With high pressure at the surface, winds will drop to less than 5 mph, therefore, Sunday morning could be quite chilly with lows in the low to mid 40s to near 50 in some locations further from the lake.
Have temperatures area wide 2-3 degrees warmer than Saturday.
606 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Today through tonight: Although the upper level ridge continues to weaken, the low level thermal ridge will peak in intensity over the forecast area today ahead of an approaching cold front, and this will bring the potential for additional record highs.
324 AM MDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Morning Discussion: Today through tonight: A cold front will be passing through the area today, with little agreement amongst CAMs on the presence of showers. Clearing is likely to occur after 00Z tonight, as the upper level ridge builds in.
Kuroski (Issued 404 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023) Today through Sunday night: The cold front is currently moving swd across srn WI and nly winds and cold advection will continue to increase through the morning. A large high pressure area over srn Canada will reach the Lake Superior region this evening then slowly shift south into srn WI by later Sunday. Drier air will follow the weak trough for Sunday with a pleasant summer day forecast.
259 AM PDT Sat Aug 26 2023 A trough along the West Coast will continue slightly below normal temperatures today.
Clouds/fog will mix out by midday Sunday as Great Lakes high pressure builds in, with comfortable weather to wrap up the weekend.
349 AM MDT Sat Aug 26 2023 At the beginning of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows an upper air high over west-central TX allowing for an upper air ridge to reside over the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains regions. Cooler daytime highs are expected ranging between 70 and 80 degrees followed by Saturday night's lows in the middle to upper 50s. On Sunday, model guidance shows the northwesterly upper air flow continuing through the day being underneath the front portion of the upper air ridge with the upper air high moving towards the southern AZ border by the evening. Sunday's highs are forecasted to be in the lower to middle 80s while the overnight lows range between the middle 50s and lower 60s.
Key Messages: * Cooler air has arrived, bringing a welcome break from the triple digit heat we experienced this past week.
The upper level low west of 130W and north of 40N is in nearly the same place it was 24 hours ago. This will also allow inland temperatures to warm a couple degrees, but they remain in the low 90s even in the warmer locations. West to northwest winds will be breezy this afternoon, but fairly typical with speeds of 5 to 10 mph in most areas with local gusts to 15 mph in the northwest to southeast river valleys and on the coastal ridges. Sunday the pattern is expected to remain very similar with the upper level low off the coast remaining nearly stationary.
A strong upper trough will approach the area toward morning. For sunday, frontal boundary will sag into Tennessee valley with the strong upper trough moving toward the region. Otherwise, fairly widespread convection tomorrow with cooler conditions spreading into the northern half of Tennessee and southwest Virginia.
1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 (Today and tonight) As of 130 AM, the cold front is located near the southern Texas Panhandle and should be through at least our northern zones before sunrise. The upper high will be overhead through much of the day and will help suppress convection along the front. The upper high is progged to push to our west by the late afternoon/early evening.
A cold front will begin to move into the Mid-South from the north tonight. As the cold front pushes further south on Sunday, additional thunderstorms are possible. Behind the cold front, cooler and drier air will move into the region bringing an end to the very hot and humid conditions.
- High pressure in Control for Sunday High pressure will be centered up over Lake Superior to start Sunday. The NAM solutions suggest we may see normally cooler locations making a run at the dipping below 40 degrees, most models are showing lows in the 40's.
(Tonight through Sunday night) An upper level ridge centered over west Texas will propagate west tonight towards the Arizona/New Mexico border by Sunday. In the mid-levels a combination of subsidence from the ridge and advection will provide a layer of dry air aloft that will inhibit convection Sunday. The lower dewpoints should keep heat index values below Heat Advisory Criteria. A combination of 20ft winds being forecast to stay below 10mph tomorrow afternoon and above normal to normal fuel moisture offset the low Relative Humidity values tomorrow and keeps us below Fire Danger Statement criteria.
The remainder of the region will experience continued summer-like temperatures as highs warm close to 100 in the lower valleys of Idaho and upper 80s to lower 90s in the valleys of western Montana.
Southward progression is likely being impeded at the moment by the higher terrain in southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.