Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
454 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Low pressure to track northeast into the Great Lakes with a front dropping across the area today. Mild temperatures with highs from the lower 40s northwest to the upper 40s southeast -- begin to drop into the 30s nw late in the day behind the front. Have limited pops to chance category with the highest pops across the south. While the cold frontal boundary will have shifted to our southeast by Monday night, models still show some low level convergence occurring in our CWA. Put snow in the grids for now, but some drizzle/freezing drizzle may mix in as well.
610 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) A cold front was in northwest Arkansas early this morning. As precipitation ends early Monday, there may be a brief period of freezing rain/freezing drizzle toward the Missouri border. Pockets of light freezing rain/sleet are in the forecast north of Little Rock, with very light snow possible in the far north.
A cold front current in far north Texas will continue to move southward through the state today. The mid-level pattern with ridging persisting over the Gulf of Mexico and vorticity stretched from Texas to the northeast US, the front will not have a good push to continue southward. Have slightly cooler temperatures northeast with the expected convection. Much cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow with highs in the 50s and 60s for most of the area with overcast skies and isentropic lift.
High pressure is settling in across the Northern Plains as the system that brushed far southern Minnesota and brought a narrow band of heavy snow to northern Iowa yesterday continues to track across southern Wisconsin. With the center of the high expected to drift closer to Minnesota/Iowa by Monday, we could end up with lighter winds, which lowers the confidence in our wind chill forecast.
Light precipitation mainly in the form of drizzle or freezing drizzle is expected to develop as the cold air deepens.
302 AM MST Sun Jan 29 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large trough who's axis runs from the Hudson Bay through southern Saskatchewan and down through Montana into central Idaho. Behind the trough in ALberta flow turns northly. With a large ridge developing over the Gulf of Alaska and threatening to move onshore over British Columbia. Today through tonight: As the trough axis transits across the area the coldest temperatures will follow.
(Today through Monday Night ) A cold front was in northwest Arkansas early this morning. As precipitation ends early Monday, there may be a brief period of freezing rain/freezing drizzle toward the Missouri border. Pockets of light freezing rain/sleet are in the forecast north of Little Rock, with very light snow possible in the far north.
Temperatures will continue to be above normal in the low to mid 80s.
Precipitation will return to the Midsouth Monday night in the form of freezing rain along and north of Interstate 40.
Currently, quasi-zonal flow aloft at the moment over the Northern Plains, ahead of a S/WV mid/upper level trough over south central Canada, rotating south/southeast around the large area of low pressure centered near Hudson Bay. The above mentioned upper level wave will continue into the local region this morning and afternoon, also driving another cold front southward along with a reinforced shot of Arctic air. Hudson Bay upper level low remains quasi-stationery through this coming work week, maintaining a persistent northwest flow over the Northern Plains. Increasing confidence for a warm-up late in the week as upper level ridging pushes out of the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies.
525 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Other than some flurries early this morning that will skirt the southern west river counties, the short term will be dry with arctic high pressure dominating at the sfc. The upper trough will help to pull in even colder air at H85, dropping those temps from -20C to -24C by this evening. On Monday, the flow aloft flattens a bit, though a broad trough remains persistent over northern Plains. At the sfc, the high begins to exit to the southeast and southwest flow on the back side of the high will draw up some waa.
946 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Low pressure to track northeast into the Great Lakes with a front dropping across the area today. Meanwhile, cold front is moving into the far northwest part of the area. Have limited pops to chance category with the highest pops across the south. While the cold frontal boundary will have shifted to our southeast by Monday night, models still show some low level convergence occurring in our CWA. Put snow in the grids for now, but some drizzle/freezing drizzle may mix in as well.
(Today through Monday) This AM at the surface, surface continues to weaken as the main ridge now extends from the Carolinas EWD into the W Atlantic. S-SE winds are present around the ridge across C AL. Models are trying to push the front through, but it won't get much help from the upper levels with SW flow present and a digging upper low across the W US. The front is likely to stall across AL with only shallow cooler air behind it.
Based on overnight winds picking up and becoming northerly, it looks like the cold front went through Eugene around 11 pm, Klamath Falls around 12 am, and Roseburg around 1 am. The strongest winds will occur this afternoon into early evening but the coldest wind chills of -10 to -20F will occur overnight into Monday morning across the Highway 97 corridor from around Chiloquin to La Pine and across the Fremont-Winema National Forest and Warner Mountains. At the coast Monday morning, lows will drop into the 20s and even fall to near or a little below freezing in Brookings.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida bringing mainly dry conditions along with moderating temperatures this afternoon. High temperatures will generally rise to around 80 across the east coast metro areas, and into the lower to mid 80s over the interior and west coast. Temperatures will continue to be above normal in the low to mid 80s.
843 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Pockets of light snow continue to be observed along the leading edge of an upper level trough, currently focused over northwest North Dakota. Currently, quasi-zonal flow aloft at the moment over the Northern Plains, ahead of a S/WV mid/upper level trough over south central Canada, rotating south/southeast around the large area of low pressure centered near Hudson Bay. The above mentioned upper level wave will continue into the local region this morning and afternoon, also driving another cold front southward along with a reinforced shot of Arctic air. Hudson Bay upper level low remains quasi-stationery through this coming work week, maintaining a persistent northwest flow over the Northern Plains. Increasing confidence for a warm-up late in the week as upper level ridging pushes out of the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies.
537 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 (Today and tonight) Strong cold front will continue to push quickly south this morning, bringing much colder airmass into the area. Gusty north winds today will create low wind chills ranging from the lower 20s in the south to near zero in the north this morning with only modest recovery through the day today.
613 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 (Today through Monday) This AM at the surface, surface continues to weaken as the main ridge now extends from the Carolinas EWD into the W Atlantic. S-SE winds are present around the ridge across C AL. Models are trying to push the front through, but it won't get much help from the upper levels with SW flow present and a digging upper low across the W US. The front is likely to stall across AL with only shallow cooler air behind it.
542 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Rain is expected today as low pressure tracks across the region. The rain could change to snow tonight through Monday from north to south behind a cold front.
330 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Other than some flurries early this morning that will skirt the southern west river counties, the short term will be dry with arctic high pressure dominating at the sfc. The upper trough will help to pull in even colder air at H85, dropping those temps from -20C to -24C by this evening. On Monday, the flow aloft flattens a bit, though a broad trough remains persistent over northern Plains. At the sfc, the high begins to exit to the southeast and southwest flow on the back side of the high will draw up some waa.
639 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Low pressure to track northeast into the Great Lakes with a front dropping across the area today. Mild temperatures with highs from the lower 40s northwest to the upper 40s southeast -- begin to drop into the 30s nw late in the day behind the front. Have limited pops to chance category with the highest pops across the south. While the cold frontal boundary will have shifted to our southeast by Monday night, models still show some low level convergence occurring in our CWA. Put snow in the grids for now, but some drizzle/freezing drizzle may mix in as well.
511 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 (Today) Rain continues to overspread the local forecast area from west to east this morning as a cold front gradually moves east.
1033 AM MST Sun Jan 29 2023 Current surface analysis shows arctic boundary along the lee of the Rockies to the southern Plains, with high pressure from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Upper level analysis shows near zonal flow across the area, with trough across the Pacific NW. Winds are relatively light with high pressure in the vicinity, but are producing wind chills of 10 below to around 20 below in many areas. Weather conditions will continue to improve over the next 12 to 24 hours, but lingering light snow and flurries can be expected at times, mainly near and south of I-90, as a couple more weak disturbances pass across southern portions of the region ahead of the trough to the west. That trough will eventually pass southwest of the region tonight, ending the snowfall.
105 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Low pressure to track northeast into the Great Lakes with a front dropping across the area today. Cold front from northwest Ohio into central Indiana will progress into the Miami and Whitewater Valleys by late in the day. Have limited pops to chance category with the highest pops across the south. While the cold frontal boundary will have shifted to our southeast by Monday night, models still show some low level convergence occurring in our CWA. Put snow in the grids for now, but some drizzle/freezing drizzle may mix in as well.
(Rest of Today) A widespread area of light to moderate rain showers (80-100%) continues to overspread the region ahead of a cold front that is moving into the Tennessee Valley this morning. However, a secondary impulse rounding the broad upper-trough will create enough forcing along the slow-moving front to regenerate rain showers again by late this afternoon into this evening.
Other than some flurries early this morning that will skirt the southern west river counties, the short term will be dry with arctic high pressure dominating at the sfc. The upper trough will help to pull in even colder air at H85, dropping those temps from -20C to -24C by this evening. On Monday, the flow aloft flattens a bit, though a broad trough remains persistent over northern Plains. At the sfc, the high begins to exit to the southeast and southwest flow on the back side of the high will draw up some waa.
A cold front will move through southern Oregon and Northern California from north to south early this morning. An arctic cold front will move through today with strong north winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas. While winds won't be quite as strong nor seas as steep over the inner waters, the air will be colder, and this brings the possibility of freezing spray, especially tonight into Monday morning.
1218 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 (Today and tonight) 07Z upper air analysis reveals a small vorticity lobe embedded within the base of the full-latitude trough over the U. As such, warmer temperatures were present across the southern South and Rolling Plains compared to the northern zones, where a slow-moving cold front is currently located. Dense, low-level stratus is accompanying this cold front in addition to freezing fog as per recent METAR data. Therefore, patchy freezing fog has been added into the official forecast for portions of the Caprock through 15Z this morning. Stratus should begin to mix out by this early afternoon from west-to-east across the CWA as winds shift to the southeast across the Caprock before returning once again tonight as the low-level airmass nears its saturation point from the weak upslope flow.
Adjusted pops based on current radar trends and imported some of the high resolution model data. The cold front will be knocking on the door of the northwestern part of the CWA this evening.
(This afternoon through Monday) A corridor of light to moderate rainfall has setup over a large portion of the area this afternoon mainly oriented northeast to southwest along a cold front extending southwest from the Ohio Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The wedge of high pressure has been slow to weaken across our east with surface obs still showing winds out of the east-southeast. Once the low is east of the area tomorrow morning, rain will become more isolated to scattered, but will end up being a gloomy day with cloudy skies, patchy fog, and periods of light rain/drizzle as the front lingers across the Gulf Coast.
East to west oriented trough axis will drop across area by evening bringing any chance of precip to an end. While winds will not be that strong, under a strong high pressure, there will be enough for wind chills to drop into the -20s to -30s. The upper air flow pattern will be semi-zonal for much of this period, with westerly mid-level winds crossing the Rocky Mountains, producing lee troughing and downsloping flow to the east of the mountains. The westerly flow will also produce scattered snow showers in the mountains, but the downsloping should cause the lower elevations to be dry.
(This evening through Monday) Temperatures this evening will be below freezing for the entire area as northerly winds persist. There is a low end chance for freezing rain across portions of far southern Oklahoma this evening, with trace amounts possible. Thermodynamic profiles suggest that freezing rain/sleet will be the primary precipitation types, however, snow is also possible. Elevated instability will help foster the low end chance of thunder sleet Monday morning across western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma.
127 PM MST Sun Jan 29 2023 Satellite imagery indicates the NE/SW oriented upper trough axis dropping south across eastern Montana this afternoon.
1138 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Lingering rain may mix with snow before ending early Monday with a crossing cold front.
1150 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 (Today and tonight) Strong cold front will continue to push quickly south this morning, bringing much colder airmass into the area. Gusty north winds today will create low wind chills ranging from the lower 20s in the south to near zero in the north this morning with only modest recovery through the day today.
My current forecast does have slightly warmer temperatures than locales to the east and wind chills around -10; however due to the potential for clouds breaking will opt to leave the eastern areas in the Wind Chill Advisory for tonight. Monday, will be another cold day (albeit warmer than today) as highs are currently forecast to range from 6 to 10 above; clouds are expected to persist but may not be as thick as today as the high pressure starts to slowly move out of the area (perhaps some random peaks of sun?).
moisture remains below 700mb through the day before decreasing rapidly during the night as an elongated upper trough starts moving in from the north.
After the low pushes offshore, the pattern will remain unsettled throughout the week with another frontal system just behind it. The axis of the upper ridge has shifted east and the low along the western Gulf Coast has begun to move into the Deep South. Trough of low pressure will be over the SE US with much of the moisture and lift moving offshore during the morning.
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery is highlighting mostly sunny skies for the island communities, with ample solar insolation allowing temperatures to climb to the lower 80s at most locations.
Upper level ridge builds across the Pacific Northwest early this week.
118 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Lingering rain may mix with snow before ending Monday with a crossing cold front.
147 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Cold high pressure will slowly move across the area tonight which will allow for another cold night. High pressure only slowly shifts east and southeast on Monday which means another cold day with highs in the single digits, maybe a little closer to 10 above in central SD.
Surface obs showed high pressure centered over the middle MO river valley with a cold front stretching from the Ozarks into southern TX.
358 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 A cold front will move across the area tonight. A weak low pressure system will track along this front on Monday followed by another weak disturbance on Monday night. High pressure will then build into the area through midweek. Cold front that has moved through the northwest part of the forecast area will continue southeast tonight although its progress will slow over time. Road temperatures for the most part are expected to stay above freezing, but cannot rule out some slick spots, especially on bridges and overpasses. There will be a wide temperature gradient across the area with lows ranging from the upper 20s to the lower 40s. But a wintry mix of rain, light snow, and possibly light freezing rain through the middle of the forecast area.
Limited insolation (still mostly cloudy with the upper jet) may help bump temperatures a little bit on Monday afternoon, but with neutral temperature advection and and entrenched cold airmass, 5 degrees warmer might be as much as can be expected. NBM is averaging in the 2 to 4 degree warmer range for Mondayâs high, still placing most of our area firmly in the upper teens.
Currently the center of the Polar Vortex resides over northern Hudson Bay with an extension the positive tilted trough axis extending southwest into the northern Plains.
113 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 (Rest of Today) A widespread area of light to moderate rain showers (80-100%) continues to overspread the region ahead of a cold front that is moving into the Tennessee Valley this morning. However, a secondary impulse rounding the broad upper-trough will create enough forcing along the slow-moving front to regenerate rain showers again by late this afternoon into this evening.
1154 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) A cold front was in northwest Arkansas early this morning. As precipitation ends early Monday, there may be a brief period of freezing rain/freezing drizzle toward the Missouri border. Pockets of light freezing rain/sleet are in the forecast north of Little Rock, with very light snow possible in the far north.
553 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 (This afternoon through Monday) A corridor of light to moderate rainfall has setup over a large portion of the area this afternoon mainly oriented northeast to southwest along a cold front extending southwest from the Ohio Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The wedge of high pressure has been slow to weaken across our east with surface obs still showing winds out of the east-southeast. Once the low is east of the area tomorrow morning, rain will become more isolated to scattered, but will end up being a gloomy day with cloudy skies, patchy fog, and periods of light rain/drizzle as the front lingers across the Gulf Coast.
Rain should increase overnight ahead of a slow moving cold front. Precipitation will return to the Midsouth Monday night in the form of freezing rain along and north of Interstate 40.
before upper level ridging to our west slides across the local area as an upper level low moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest late in the week. This low will eventually erode the ridge aloft late in the period as it crosses the Rockies.
Precipitation has remained anchored to the high country north of I-70 today, but will intensify later this evening with frontal bands of snow setting up across the Roan Plateau, Tavaputs, Flat Tops, Elkheads and Park Range, where winter headlines remain in place.
As a result some visibility reductions seem plausible along higher elevations and ridgetops, especially along the Cumberland Plateau.
924 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Weak waves of low pressure will continue passing through the area tonight and Monday.
An upper trough axis is progged to work across the region tonight with the core of the coldest arctic air shifting southward across our northeast zones in its wake. Closer to daybreak and just beyond, we should see temperature readings bottom out in the low to mid teens below zero across central SD to the mid teens below to perhaps near mid 20s below zero from the James Valley and points each. Temperatures will continue to remain cold during the day but the overall trend going toward the end of the period will indicate some improvements as some warmer air tries to work into the region.
708 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Light north wind is in place over Lower MI, in between exiting New England low pressure and northern Plains high pressure. There is increasing influence of broad Midwest high pressure during the afternoon which helps lift ceiling and break up coverage into Monday night. Currently the center of the Polar Vortex resides over northern Hudson Bay with an extension the positive tilted trough axis extending southwest into the northern Plains.
There is the potential for near to slightly below freezing overnight low temperatures through mid-week. An upper low moving southward through the area is bringing light Valley showers and moderate mountain snow this afternoon. Even higher gusts will be possible for portions of the foothills, with gusts to 60 mph possible over exposed ridgetops, peaks, and gaps. A cold airmass filters in behind the system, with overnight temperatures at or below freezing early to mid-week.
Luckily, the lower levels have remained too warm for any precipitation type other than rain.
216 PM MST Sun Jan 29 2023 A low pressure system moving through the Southwest early this week will result in scattered showers and isolated breezy conditions. Further upstream, a positively-tilted trough is evident on water vapor imagery across northern California. Ahead of this trough, southwesterly flow is helping to boost temperatures across the region. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 60s this afternoon across the lower deserts, which will likely be the warmest readings in over two weeks, though this will still be a few degrees below normal. The warmer conditions will result in somewhat stronger winds mixing down to the surface later this afternoon and evening, resulting in areas of breezy conditions.
620 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 A cold front will move across the area tonight. A weak low pressure system will track along this front on Monday followed by another weak disturbance on Monday night. High pressure will then build into the area through midweek. Cold front that has moved through the northwest part of the forecast area will continue southeast tonight although its progress will slow over time. Road temperatures for the most part are expected to stay above freezing, but cannot rule out some slick spots, especially on bridges and overpasses. There will be a wide temperature gradient across the area with lows ranging from the upper 20s to the lower 40s. But a wintry mix of rain, light snow, and possibly light freezing rain through the middle of the forecast area.