Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
250 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 Key Points: - Warm temperatures continue the rest of this week - On and off chances (10-40%) of showers and thunderstorms this week Water vapor imagery continues to show upper troughing over the western CONUS, and weak flow aloft continues to dominate the overall pattern. Sfc obs show high pressure still slowly moving east and a weak lee trough in southeast CO. The moisture axis remains in central KS where dew points in the low 60s are observed.
130 PM PDT Sun May 28 2023 A persistent trough over the West will keep a deep marine layer in place this week with areas of drizzle west of the mountains each night and morning.
Water vapor imagery shows some troughiness along the coast of California. There is a closed low associated with it and there is minor ridge building across Arizona from the south- southeast.
333 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 High pressure will generally be over the region throughout the week. A weak backdoor front moves through late tomorrow then a cold frontal passage late in the week. High pressure will remain over the region through Monday night. Going to keep persistence trends, with the lowest end of ensemble guidance for lows and the highest end for the daytime temperatures. Clear skies and light winds as well thanks to the high pressure continue. Once again, not much has changed in the short term forecast as strong high pressure will filter in dry air from Canada over much of the Northeast. A cut-off low over the mid Atlantic region will battle the high as they both drift to the east through the middle of the week.
This supports inland temps pushing into the mid 80s with afternoon RH values in the low 20s to upper teens Monday. Kluber The quiet weather pattern continues into mid-week, as the Low pressure system off the mid-Atlantic coast struggles to move northward due to the dominate stacked High pressure over the northeast CONUS.
Currently, S/WV mid level trough slowly lifting north across the western Dakotas, with multiple embedded impulses also moving through or projected to do so through tonight. Upper level ridge/area of high pressure lingers off to our east, while persistent troughiness remains to the west. Models do indicate the upper level high retrograding back west over the Great Plains late in the period, though flow aloft looks week so would not expect any trend towards drier weather at this time. Other terminals may see showers and possibly a thunderstorm this evening, with the lower chances at KXWA and KJMS, with a bit better chance at KMOT.
This supports inland temps pushing into the mid 80s with afternoon RH values in the low 20s to upper teens Monday. Rex block currently across the Great Lakes region is forecast to slowly drift east and weaken through mid-week, though weak upper ridging is progged to redevelop across the Mississippi Valley and into the eastern Canadian prairies by the weekend.
159 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 The persistent upper-level low embedded within a longwave ridge responsible for our anomalous stretch of dry weather (see the "Climate" section for more information) remains firmly fixed across eastern North America. Upstream, a longwave trough with two distinct impulses evident on GOES-East water vapor channels is digging across the western CONUS and slowly acting to propagate the cutoff low responsible for the Rex block further east.
Only a layer of cirrus clouds could be found today across the state as high pressure continues to drive the weather pattern. A few remnant showers and thunderstorms may try and hang on Monday morning in the southwest, but will be limited by the amount of dry air in the low levels at that time. Broad upper-air ridging keeps steering flow weak through the period, giving storms a chance to produce localized areas of heavy rainfall. The newest HREF LPMM illustrates just how localized the higher rain totals could be with scattered areas only about the size of a county receiving over 1" of rain. Looking ahead to the weekend, there is good ensemble consensus in a large ridging pattern setting up in the western CONUS, shifting Iowa out from under center and into northwest flow aloft.
Hudson Bay high pressure will shift south into the eastern Great Lakes, bringing dry weather through the rest of the Memorial Day weekend.
128 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 The area of low pressure continues to lift north into the NC/SC border region, with drier air lingering across the local area.
Temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s with dew points mostly in the lower 70s. A Rex block pattern remains across the eastern United States with high pressure over the Great Lakes and low pressure over the southeastern United States. The Keys remain on the southern side of the low pressure resulting in zonal flow across the Gulf of Mexico.
332 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 A large upper level low will pass to the southeast of the area through Monday. High pressure will then become prevalent through the rest of the week. Mid level closed low rotating over the eastern Tennessee Valley this afternoon will slowly move east toward the Carolinas tonight. On Monday, the low will continue to the east toward the North Carolina coast. Highs will range from the mid 70s far southeast to the lower 80s elsewhere. For Monday night, as the low continues to drift east off the mid Atlantic coast, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
626 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 High pressure will bring dry, warm, and mostly sunny weather through most of the week. A moisture-starved cold front will move through by the end of the week, which may bring a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm to the area. Previous Discussion: High pressure will remain over the region through Monday night. Going to keep persistence trends, with the lowest end of ensemble guidance for lows and the highest end for the daytime temperatures. Once again, not much has changed in the short term forecast as strong high pressure will filter in dry air from Canada over much of the Northeast. A cut-off low over the mid Atlantic region will battle the high as they both drift to the east through the middle of the week.
607 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 The stretch of dry and seasonably warm weather will extend through Memorial Day weekend, becoming progressively hotter by midweek with daily highs in the low 90s.
Key Points: - Warm temperatures continue the rest of this week - On and off chances (10-40%) of showers and thunderstorms this week Water vapor imagery continues to show upper troughing over the western CONUS, and weak flow aloft continues to dominate the overall pattern. Sfc obs show high pressure still slowly moving east and a weak lee trough in southeast CO. The moisture axis remains in central KS where dew points in the low 60s are observed.
Elsewhere, the convection will be isolated and generally limited to the higher elevations. Temperatures will be warmer with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
722 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 A large upper level low will pass to the southeast of the area through Monday. High pressure will then become prevalent through the rest of the week. Mid level closed low rotating over the eastern Tennessee Valley this afternoon will slowly move east toward the Carolinas tonight. On Monday, the low will continue to the east toward the North Carolina coast. Highs will range from the mid 70s far southeast to the lower 80s elsewhere. For Monday night, as the low continues to drift east off the mid Atlantic coast, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
640 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 (This evening through Monday) Starting to see a few cumulus fields developing across the area with breaks in the high clouds. As such, have put the higher chances for PoPs generally along and north of the I-20 corridor this afternoon. Overnight lows will remain comparable to the last few nights in the low to mid 60s. As this trough pushes east through the day, we'll begin to see clearing skies to the west. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon look to climb into the low to mid 80s, though areas to the west could make a run towards the upper 80s should the clouds clear early enough in the day to take advantage of the peak heating.
951 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 An area of low pressure will drift slowly northward across eastern North Carolina through Memorial Day. Late Sunday evening analysis shows low pressure at 1008 mb in the region of North Carolina between Fayetteville (KFAY) and Goldsboro (KGSB, moving slowly northwest. This occurs as the cyclonic circulation around the low in North Carolina relaxes considerably. Meanwhile, scattered mid and high level clouds will move back in across western sections late as stronger winds arrive aloft around the cyclone aloft. Memorial Day: A weakening area of low pressure will linger across eastern North Carolina through the day. High temperatures are forecast to range from the low 80s across SC to the low to mid 80s across SE GA.
The most favorable area for a few strong storms will generally be along and just east of the Highway 83 corridor. Currently, S/WV mid level trough slowly lifting north across the western Dakotas, with multiple embedded impulses also moving through or projected to do so through tonight. Upper level ridge/area of high pressure lingers off to our east, while persistent troughiness remains to the west. Models do indicate the upper level high retrograding back west over the Great Plains late in the period, though flow aloft looks week so would not expect any trend towards drier weather at this time.
Meanwhile, further upstream, latest water vapor imagery reveals a compact low pressure system off the central California coast. The region will be situated between the aforementioned low to our west and ridge to our east Monday, resulting in a dry southwesterly flow. With the increased meridional component to the flow, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler to the west across southern California, while across central and eastern Arizona, conditions will be somewhat warmer.
931 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 Deep layer high pressure will remain in control of our weather tonight, resulting in more dry conditions under just a few passing high level clouds. Pattern Synopsis: Upper-level ridging will stay parked over the Great Lakes through tonight as a closed low pinwheels over the southeast CONUS. Forecast/Details: High pressure gripping the region will keep dry weather and clear skies in place through the near term period. Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon will cool nearly 40 degrees overnight with lows ranging from the low to upper 40s early Monday morning.
743 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 High pressure will continue to provide the North Country with warm and dry weather through most of the upcoming week. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Monday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s before much above normal values return for mid to late week.
1022 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 High pressure will continue to provide the North Country with warm and dry weather through most of the upcoming week. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Monday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s before much above normal values return for mid to late week.
1021 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 High pressure will remain firmly in place across the Great Lakes through the rest of the long holiday weekend. with daytime highs reaching the lower to mid 80s both today and Monday. This is courtesy of a ridge of high pressure, aloft and at the surface that will remain anchored over the Great Lakes region. With the dry ground and light winds went on the lower end of the model spectrum of temperatures tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s. The mid/upper level ridge will remain parked over the Great Lakes and New England as a weakening mid level low meanders slowly northward from the Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic.
Mid-level ridging advecting over the region, allowing for warming aloft and commensurate subsidence. With the addition of moderate relative humidity, heat indices have the potential to reach the low to mid 90s across all of south FL both days. Tonight's lows will remain in the the low 70s across the metro and drop into the upper 60s in the interior.
738 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 High pressure will remain firmly in place across the Great Lakes through the rest of the long holiday weekend. with daytime highs reaching the lower to mid 80s both today and Monday. This is courtesy of a ridge of high pressure, aloft and at the surface that will remain anchored over the Great Lakes region. With the dry ground and light winds went on the lower end of the model spectrum of temperatures tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s. The mid/upper level ridge will remain parked over the Great Lakes and New England as a weakening mid level low meanders slowly northward from the Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic.
742 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 The stretch of dry and seasonably warm weather will extend through Memorial Day weekend, becoming progressively hotter by midweek with daily highs in the low 90s.
734 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 High pressure will bring dry, warm, and mostly sunny weather through most of the week. A moisture-starved cold front will move through by the end of the week, which may bring a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm to the area. Previous Discussion: High pressure will remain over the region through Monday night. Going to keep persistence trends, with the lowest end of ensemble guidance for lows and the highest end for the daytime temperatures. Once again, not much has changed in the short term forecast as strong high pressure will filter in dry air from Canada over much of the Northeast. A cut-off low over the mid Atlantic region will battle the high as they both drift to the east through the middle of the week.
945 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 A large upper level low will pass to the southeast of the area through Monday. High pressure will then become prevalent through the rest of the week. Any pcpn chances will be fairly slim outside the far SE, with the best coverage focused primarily across NE KY and the lower Scioto Valley. On Monday, the low will continue to the east toward the North Carolina coast. Highs will range from the mid 70s far southeast to the lower 80s elsewhere. For Monday night, as the low continues to drift east off the mid Atlantic coast, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
A cutoff low continues to drift off the coast of California, helping to bring cooler than normal temps to the region that will persist through the upcoming week. Continued troughing will keep temperatures on the cool side the next few days, with highs in the mid 60s for Bays, and closer to mid 70s for more interior locations.
Increasing cloud cover spreading back over the region overnight and also increasing moisture will help to keep low temps warmer compared to previous nights.
The PVA associated with this area of low pressure has helped to generate the ongoing predominantly sub-severe broken line of showers and thunderstorms over central and north central South Dakota. At the surface, the region remains between high pressure over the Great Lakes region and low pressure over the western High Plains. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 50s to the lower 60s. Interesting pattern looks to continue with the weak western CONUS trough remaining mostly in place with southwest flow aloft supporting low chances for generally weak convection. That is until another bubble upper high drifts down out of Canada.
Deep mixing dropped dew points temporarily into the upper 40s in a few spots this afternoon, but have since climbed back into the lower 50s for most areas. An upper level low was now situated over the GA/NC border, which is wrapping multi-layer clouds into middle and eastern TN and northeast AL and northwest GA.
Look for light northerly winds overnight with low temperatures falling only into the lower 60s further north and upper 60s across central and SW Florida. As the low pressure system continues to exit the region to the northeast and high pressure builds into the area, look for dry conditions to persist into Monday. The area of low pressure continues to lift north into the NC/SC border region, with drier air lingering across the local area.
640 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) WV imagery shows southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast new Mexico this afternoon, as an upper trough moves through Sonora/Chihuahua. However, CAMs show enough marginal shear developing late this afternoon over the lower Trans Pecos and northern Permian Basin that a supercell or two will be possible. Monday, things start to dry out as upper-level ridging starts to build in from the west.
Thunderstorms continue to rotate around the upper level low to our west. /ISSUED 159 PM MDT Sun May 28 2023/ The final piece of a broad upper level trough that has been stuck over the NW CONUS for the last week or so will finally move through the area over the next two days.
1006 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 High pressure will bring dry, warm, and mostly sunny weather through most of the week. A moisture-starved cold front will move through by the end of the week, which may bring a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm to the area. Previous Discussion: High pressure will remain over the region through Monday night. Going to keep persistence trends, with the lowest end of ensemble guidance for lows and the highest end for the daytime temperatures. Once again, not much has changed in the short term forecast as strong high pressure will filter in dry air from Canada over much of the Northeast. A cut-off low over the mid Atlantic region will battle the high as they both drift to the east through the middle of the week.
940 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 Low pressure will continue to track north into central North Carolina. Weak high pressure and near normal temperatures are then expected through the work week with a small chance of rain each day. For Monday a mid level closed low will meander across the area and may bring a few showers late. The upper low responsible for our miserable holiday weekend will continue to spin overhead through Monday night.
An upper level low to the southeast will continue to be the main player for weather in central Indiana through Monday. High and mid clouds will continue to move west across the forecast area, around the upper low. Although the upper low will not be racing away from the area, it will begin to trek to the east tonight, taking the weak forcing with it. Even though the upper low will be farther southeast, mid and high level moisture will continue to flow into the forecast area. This will push highs into the lower and middle 80s.
Northward progression of the low and affiliated precipitation have been halted with a northeast blocking pattern. As the low continues to spin overnight, precipitation chances were only maintained for the higher elevations of West Virginia with upslope easterly flow in a more saturated profile accompanied by an axis of more pronounced PVA. The low should begin an eastward drift on Memorial day, though additional moisture and vorticity advection rotating around it mean that a shower could not be ruled out south of I 70, although it is generally unlikely. Limiting factors in any precip development include the more southern track of the low, dry air in place, and downsloping easterly wind. Elsewhere, the high to the north and the dry easterly flow should maintain dry weather across the area.
/EC/ Tonight into Memorial Day: As the upper low pulls further east of the area, surface ridging will build southward over the area tonight and tomorrow, with northerly flow bringing a drier airmass into the region.
831 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 Conditions will gradually improve overnight as low pressure continues to track into central North Carolina. Weak high pressure and near normal temperatures are then expected through the work week with a small chance of rain each day. For Monday a mid level closed low will meander across the area and may bring a few showers late. The upper low responsible for our miserable holiday weekend will continue to spin overhead through Monday night.
528 PM MDT Sun May 28 2023 Water vapor shows western CONUS trof with eastern CONUS rex block, with distinct short wave tracking north across the NE panhandle. At the surface, trof covers the western Dakotas. Effective bulk shear is quite weak today at 20kts or less, so severe threat will be quite limited and should mainly be confined to western SD along and east of the surface trof. A northern stream short wave moves through Monday as western CONUS trof splits. Additional storms expected, with better chance for strong/severe storms along and east of persistent trof over western SD. Southwest flow aloft will strengthen mid to late week, with better chances for more widespread storms late in the week as robust upper low/trof ejects northeast from the Desert SW.
637 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 The persistent upper-level low embedded within a longwave ridge responsible for our anomalous stretch of dry weather (see the "Climate" section for more information) remains firmly fixed across eastern North America. Upstream, a longwave trough with two distinct impulses evident on GOES-East water vapor channels is digging across the western CONUS and slowly acting to propagate the cutoff low responsible for the Rex block further east.
342 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 A high pressure ridge will persist over the local area through much of this week.
1021 PM PDT Sun May 28 2023 A cutoff low continues to drift off the coast of California, helping to bring cooler than normal temps to the region that will persist through the upcoming week. (Tonight through Monday) Upper low causing a few patches of drizzle and to the north showers, with thunderstorms farther north earlier on across Mendocino and Lake counties. Cloud cover kept temperatures cool across the area for the most part today, daytime highs on Memorial Day will be similar to a few degrees warmer compared to today's high temperatures, upper 50s, 60s coastside, mid to upper 60s bayside to the 70s farthest inland.
105 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Mid-level ridging advecting over the region, allowing for warming aloft and commensurate subsidence. With the addition of moderate relative humidity, heat indices have the potential to reach the low to mid 90s across all of south FL both days. Tonight's lows will remain in the the low 70s across the metro and drop into the upper 60s in the interior.
224 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 High pressure will bring dry, warm, and mostly sunny weather through most of the week. Any clouds this evening look to dissipate, with clear skies overnight under high pressure.
Better chances will be confined to near the Highway 75 corridor and points to the west, with more isolated storms possible further east where moisture is still more limited and shallow.
(Today and tonight) The upper level trough continues to advance towards the eastern seaboard today, leading to additional dry weather.
1037 PM MDT Sun May 28 2023 Water vapor shows western CONUS trof with eastern CONUS rex block, with distinct short wave tracking north across the NE panhandle. At the surface, trof covers the western Dakotas. Effective bulk shear is quite weak today at 20kts or less, so severe threat will be quite limited and should mainly be confined to western SD along and east of the surface trof. A northern stream short wave moves through Monday as western CONUS trof splits. Additional storms expected, with better chance for strong/severe storms along and east of persistent trof over western SD. Southwest flow aloft will strengthen mid to late week, with better chances for more widespread storms late in the week as robust upper low/trof ejects northeast from the Desert SW.