Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A ridge of high pressure with its axis over eastern Montana, in conjunction with a closed low spinning along the coast of British Columbia, is keeping the Northern Rockies under southwest flow aloft.
/Issued 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023/ /This Afternoon Through Monday/ Another hot late July day is unfolding as a mid-level ridge churns over the southern CONUS. A warming trend will continue both today and tomorrow as the center of the ridge gradually shifts overhead. The center of the high pressure system, currently across the Texas Panhandle, will be shifting southeastward through the next couple of days.
Upper-level ridging continues through next several days, resulting in warmer temperatures across lower elevations. /ISSUED 515 AM MDT Sun Jul 30 2023/ Broad upper-level ridging continues across much of western CONUS, resulting in yet another day of warmer temperatures, especially across the plains of Central Montana. In fact, the next several days will exemplify afternoon temperatures well above seasonal average, with temperatures in the low- to mid-90s for many lower elevation locations. 0 C/Km, and bulk shear above 40 kts - favorable conditions that would support supercells if it wasn't for the higher CIN values, resulting in more isolated to discrete storms instead. The aforementioned upper- level ridge remains intact through at least mid-week, as suggested by cluster analysis.
This Evening and Tonight High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and light winds, allowing temperatures to drop into the upper 50s to low 60s for overnight lows. Monday Another nice day is expected with highs in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the 60s.
Meanwhile, the ridge in the western US continues to hold strong, along with the high pressure in the western Atlantic. There is also an upper level low over eastern Cuba today that will move north across the Bahamas over the next couple of days. With a general S/SE LL flow, the highest PoPs today and tomorrow will be over the interior and over towards the Gulf coast. Afternoon high temps today will be in the low to mid 90s, and combined with high humidity, heat index values will peak between 100- 110 degrees.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon Through Monday/ Another hot late July day is unfolding as a mid-level ridge churns over the southern CONUS. A warming trend will continue both today and tomorrow as the center of the ridge gradually shifts overhead.
(Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Dangerous Heat Continues Mid-Upper level high pressure will continue to build over the state during the short term period coincident with increasing boundary layer moisture resulting in dangerously hot and humid conditions.
Current temperatures along the island chain are floating around the lower 90s with dew points near 80 degrees resulting in heat index values near 110. Speaking of showers, KBYX radar currently detects only a few shallow showers in the vicinity of the Lower Keys, much less activity than the widely scattered coverage seen this morning. A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell centered between the west end of Cuba and the Bahamas is progged to drift in behind this dry air sometime tomorrow bringing another dose of moist air while providing a favorable upper level environment for shower development.
Went a bit below the NBM for lows in the northeast tonight, and tried to shade a bit warmer than it for highs Monday both due to the drier air over the region.
With the persistent 597 upper level ridge over the Southwest CONUS expected to track to the east over the next 24 hours. By Monday, the upper ridge will be positioned over the TX Panhandle with an associated dome of high pressure. This, along with slight thickness increases will allow for high temperatures tomorrow to be slightly warmer by a few degrees.
338 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 The cooler conditions will continue through much of the work week.
1223 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 (The rest of today ) H5 ridge center is over SW KS/NW OK, with some decent northerly flow over AR to the east.
Our heating trend continues into Monday as the Southern Plains will remain under a strong ridge of high pressure. Both HREF ensemble means and NAM dirty up the ridge with cirrus across our CWA during the afternoon.
Temperatures were ranging from the low to mid 80s in the east to the low to mid 90s in the west. Still have a bit of a cap in place over the area with the highest instability in the southwest where surface based CAPES were around 3000-3500 j/kg. With the upper ridge centered over the central and southern plains, northwest flow will continue along the edge of the ridge which will bring several waves of energy over our eastern CWA and across the OH/TN valley regions.
Tonight, all activity should move to the south and east with northwest flow bringing in cooler and drier air to the state. Monday, northwest flow will keep cooler and drier air over the state with only a slight chance for rain in the afternoon across the far southeastern areas where the instabilities will be higher and closer to that weak boundary. Heat indices tomorrow could reach the lower 100s in the southern counties, but a Heat Advisory is not expected at this time.
Temperatures may be a smidge higher in the lower 80s along with less daytime cumulus cloud coverage.
A cold front has made its way through TN and into northern MS resulting in slightly drier air and lower temps into the first half of the week. Later this week, expect the ridge to return and increase temps briefly before another cold front enters the region.
(This afternoon through Monday Night) Frontal boundary has cleared the area, aiding in keeping things a bit cooler.
359 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Another cool night is expected with high pressure in control. An upper level disturbance and a weak cold front will bring some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow.
Afternoon water vapor imagery nicely shows the ridging from the southwest U. Morning model suite continues to edge this ridge eastward early this week, favoring a path for the MCS train into our region.
1110 AM MDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge centered over the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains will persist. Given that the Tri-State area is situated beneath the ridge.
926 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 The cooler conditions will continue through much of the work week.
A quiet night is expected across central Illinois under the influence of high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest this evening. Temperatures are on track to fall into the lower to mid 60s by early Monday morning. Afternoon water vapor imagery nicely shows the ridging from the southwest U. Morning model suite continues to edge this ridge eastward early this week, favoring a path for the MCS train into our region.
603 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 A cold front has made its way through TN and into northern MS resulting in slightly drier air and lower temps into the first half of the week. Later this week, expect the ridge to return and increase temps briefly before another cold front enters the region.
Quiet weather conditions persist across Northwest California as remains between an upper level low over NE Pacific moving slowly toward Vancouver Island and a massive-dominating ridge centered over the southern CONUS.
649 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 (This afternoon through Monday Night) Frontal boundary has cleared the area, aiding in keeping things a bit cooler.
Dry southwest flow continues over the next several days as a high pressure remains anchored over western US. Smoke appears to be rotating around the upper level high and may increase from the southwest, from fires in the Four Corners region.
Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are then expected through mid week under high pressure. High pressure and loss of heating should return dry weather later tonight, with dry advection supporting clearing clouds.
12 Previous Discussion: /This Afternoon Through Monday/ Another hot late July day is unfolding as a mid-level ridge churns over the southern CONUS. A warming trend will continue both today and tomorrow as the center of the ridge gradually shifts overhead. The center of the high pressure system, currently across the Texas Panhandle, will be shifting southeastward through the next couple of days.
Dewpoints range from the 50s over northeast WY and the higher Black Hills to 60s to around 70 degrees elsewhere. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis over WY and central MT, with weak disturbances passing through the ridge. Temps are in the 80s to lower 90s, cooler where rain has fallen, with muggy conditions across the SD plains.
725 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Another cool night is expected with high pressure in control. An upper level disturbance and a weak cold front will bring some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow.
952 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 (Issued 952 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023) It's a pleasant summer evening with temperatures in the lower 70s. Partly cloudy skies in the afternoon hours, high temperatures in the lower 80s.
Very quiet conditions are expected tonight under northwest flow thanks to strong high pressure building to our west. (This afternoon through Monday Night) Frontal boundary has cleared the area, aiding in keeping things a bit cooler.
1038 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through the first half of the week.
(Rest of tonight) A frontal boundary has finally moved south of the Tennessee Valley, helping to usher somewhat cooler and drier air into the region.
Winds over the waters will be out of the west to southwest up to 10-15 knots this evening and diminishing to 5-10 knots late tonight, as the subtropical ridge axis remains south of the region.
742 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through the first half of the week.
917 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 A weak cold front will sag into the region and likely stall through mid week. High pressure will then return by the middle and latter part of the week. Convection is on track to converge along the lower South Carolina coast over the next few hours. Pops were increased to 70% along the lower South Carolina Coast, including the Charleston Metro Area. Low pressure aloft will be positioned well to the north of New England, while ridging builds in across TX. With the northwestern flow moisture will not be abundant, however a weak cold front will droop into the region on Monday and linger in the vicinity through the middle of the week.
Nevertheless, expect highs mainly in the lower 90s and heat indices in the lower 100s. Ridging will be pushing to our south tonight switching to our southwest. At the same time we are looking at an upper level trough pushing through Georgia that should make it into our area by morning. Ridging over the area continues to bring lighter winds to the Gulf waters today. The ridge, however, will shift south tonight bringing our west to southwest flow back in place with slightly higher winds. We are also looking at an upper level trough moving into the area early in the morning hours.
No precip is expected given the drier airmass in place over SE MI (dewpoints in the 50s F) however this wave maintains, if not subtly deepens, the upper trough centered over the eastern Great Lakes. This leads to a strengthening of the NW-oriented jet streak over the western Great Lakes as well as a reinforcement of the thermal troughing already in place. Said trough begins to shift east daytime Monday resulting in a weakening backdoor cold front dropping across Lake Huron into lower MI.
1003 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 A cold front will push south of the region tonight. Weak high pressure builds in behind the cold front the first half of the workweek, bringing cooler temperatures. CAMs show the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon so have chance PoPs in place along the Blue Ridge Escarpment and along the far eastern tier of the CWA. As of 155 PM EDT Sunday: A long wave trough axis will remain centered near the East Coast through the short term, while dry and cooler high pressure builds into the area.
High pressure over the Intermountain West will gradually build northwestward towards the Pacific Northwest, which will result in temperatures warming back up to above average levels for the date later this week.
653 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 The cooler conditions will continue through much of the work week.
Factoring in dew points ranging from the low 60s across central KS to the low 70s across southeast KS was resulting in heat index values in the 103- 110 range. This zone across the Flint Hills stands the highest potential for a storm or 2 through the evening.
At the surface winds are generally from the east to southeast as weak surface ridging extends across the Bahamas. All other island communities will experience lows in the lower 80s.
This seems reasonable given the strong ridging and aloft across the ArkLaTex. CN (This evening through Monday Night) Upper-level ridge across the desert southwest and extending into Texas and across the ArkLaTex to maintain hot conditions through the short-term period ending Monday night. A few high-res models have suggested that isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may be possible on the eastern periphery of the ridge across south Arkansas and north Louisiana on Monday.
617 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 (This evening through Monday night) A 594-597dm ridge will be set up over the Southern Plains through at least this short-term period.
Overnight lows will be in the low 70s. High temperatures will be from the upper 80s to the lower 90s, with the lower readings possibly in the easter counties where more clouds and rain could keep temperatures slightly cooler that the western cwa.
701 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Aviation Models continue to have good consensus in the timing and passage of a large upper level low situated over northeast Canada. The sole caveat will be as the low shifts eastward. The downsloping, convergent flow coming off the high could have just enough moisture to couple with through the mid level to perhaps cause showers through the eastern half of Lower Michigan tomorrow afternoon. There is some mid to upper level support for this as the positively tilted trough will have a weak short wave emanating through the mid levels. There is some mid level moisture so the only question will be if the lower levels will be to dry.
602 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Dangerous Heat Continues Mid-Upper level high pressure will continue to build over the state during the short term period coincident with increasing boundary layer moisture resulting in dangerously hot and humid conditions.
729 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 High pressure builds into the area tonight, and will remain in control of the weather pattern for the early half of the work week.
720 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Another cool night is expected with high pressure in control. An upper level disturbance and a weak cold front will bring some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow.
1018 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Another cool night is expected with high pressure in control. An upper level disturbance and a weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday.
632 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) The upper level high is centered over southeastern CO this afternoon. In the short term the upper high will shift toward the east moving over Texas. Overnight tonight will be mostly clear and slightly warmer. Lows will be a degree or two warmer than this morning. The shift of the upper high will make Monday a little hotter than today. The western counties will not have any advisory or warning due to the higher criteria there.
652 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 (This evening through Monday Night) Upper-level ridge across the desert southwest and extending into Texas and across the ArkLaTex to maintain hot conditions through the short-term period ending Monday night. A few high-res models have suggested that isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may be possible on the eastern periphery of the ridge across south Arkansas and north Louisiana on Monday.
High pressure over the Intermountain West will gradually build northwestward towards the Pacific Northwest, which will result in temperatures warming back up to above average levels for the date later this week. A slowly building upper level ridge originating over the Great Basin looks to be the dominant synoptic feature across the CWA through the majority of the week.
117 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 High pressure builds into the area tonight, and will remain in control of the weather pattern for the early half of the work week.
1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Dangerous Heat Continues Mid-Upper level high pressure will continue to build over the state during the short term period coincident with increasing boundary layer moisture resulting in dangerously hot and humid conditions.
Water vapor imagery as of 3AM, continues to show the ridge's axis extending well into Canada and southward over the Northern Rockies/Black Hills. This is due to monsoonal flow being pushed northward and northeastward due to anticyclonic flow under the ridge. This moisture is riding along the axis of ridge and continues to ride downstream.
106 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (This evening through Monday night) A 594-597dm ridge will be set up over the Southern Plains through at least this short-term period.
Slightly cooler and drier weather today. This weak boundary will help turn winds more northerly and funnel in drier air slowly dropping dew points into the lower 60s by the afternoon. Temperatures overnight will be several degrees cooler with the drier air as well.
1243 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Rest of tonight) A frontal boundary has finally moved south of the Tennessee Valley, helping to usher somewhat cooler and drier air into the region.
334 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Another cool night is expected with high pressure in control. An upper level disturbance and a weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday.
125 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Another cool night is expected with high pressure in control. An upper level disturbance and a weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday.
(Today and tonight) The heat creeps up today with the arrival of a broad upper high from northern New Mexico. Water vapor imagery captured a NW-SE axis of deeper drying/subsidence from ABQ-LBB which should undergo little change as the high drifts over swrn OK by tonight.
but temps mostly within a few degrees of the early August normals - Rain chances on the low end for the work week. higher chances come the weekend OVERVIEW: The amplified upper level ridge over the rockies will push back eastward this week. The ridge axis continues to show some weakening as it shifts east over the weekend with the GEFS and EPS trending toward more northwest to quasi-zonal flow taking over by the end of the weekend/start of the following week. Also, the ensembles are showing quite a bit of variability by this time with operational runs on the low end of the guidance.
The upper-level ridge over the southern Rocky Mountains/Southern Plains is progged to begin shifting eastward tonight, allowing a front to begin slowly lifting northeastward to near western/southwestern MO.
201 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Another cool night is expected with high pressure in control. An upper level disturbance and a weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday.
That said, model skill remains low in this northwesterly to zonal flow ridge riding pattern. Upper level analysis places high over Colorado, with ridge northward through Montana into western Saskatchewan.
139 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Aviation Models continue to have good consensus in the timing and passage of a large upper level low situated over northeast Canada. The sole caveat will be as the low shifts eastward. The downsloping, convergent flow coming off the high could have just enough moisture to couple with through the mid level to perhaps cause showers through the eastern half of Lower Michigan tomorrow afternoon. There is some mid to upper level support for this as the positively tilted trough will have a weak short wave emanating through the mid levels. There is some mid level moisture so the only question will be if the lower levels will be to dry.
(Today and tonight) Another round of hot and dry conditions are expected today with strong high pressure aloft across much of the area.
High pressure continues to build across the region and will continue into the start of the work week.
Water vapor imagery tonight continues to show dirty ridging across much of the Plains and Intermountain West.
346 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Today and tonight: The current pattern is characterized by perturbed northerly flow aloft around an upper trough along the East Coast with a weak and somewhat diffuse stationary surface front extending from the Mid South to the Central Gulf Coast. 5" even as surface dewpoints remain in the low 70s.
Afternoon temperatures will climb into the mid 80s in many areas, though the coolest rural areas will likely top out in the lower 80s and the warmest urban centers should reach the upper 80s.
128 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 A weak cold front will sag into the region and likely stall through mid week. High pressure will then return by the middle and latter part of the week. Min temps will be in the lower and middle 70s. Low pressure aloft will be positioned well to the north of New England, while ridging builds in across TX. With the northwestern flow moisture will not be abundant, however a weak cold front will droop into the region on Monday and linger in the vicinity through the middle of the week.
1236 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 We are seeing thunderstorms redevelop across southeastern NE as the low level jet begins to strengthen.
(Today and tonight) The upper level ridge continues it's gradual shift eastward, leading to another dry day with a slight upward tick of warmer temperatures.
324 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through the first half of the week.
Forecast thoughts: A deep trough remains over eastern Canada into the northeastern CONUS with a semipermanent anticyclone anchored over the deep south with another Pacific Low pressure system along the western Canadian coastal areas. This has allowed for moisture returning around the western periphery of the deep south anticyclone to stream across the local area. This will continue through early to mid morning with a gradual push to the northeast out of the area as the ridge builds back north into the morning and afternoon today.
201 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Satellite imagery showed an upper ridge axis over eastern Montana while monsoonal flow pushed mid level moisture up from the southwest into the Rockies.
Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights overlaid show the upper ridge has made some eastward progress, compared to Sunday morning, with the axis of the ridge just east of the Rockies from eastern Colorado into Saskatchewan.
155 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 A cold front will push south of the region tonight. Weak high pressure builds in behind the cold front the first half of the workweek, bringing cooler temperatures. CAMs show the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon so have chance PoPs in place along the Blue Ridge Escarpment and along the far eastern tier of the CWA. As of 155 PM EDT Sunday: A long wave trough axis will remain centered near the East Coast through the short term, while dry and cooler high pressure builds into the area.
317 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 The cooler conditions will continue through much of the work week.
420 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 An upper level disturbance and a weak cold front will bring some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday. High pressure builds back by mid-week with persistent below average temperatures, comfortable humidity levels, and sunny and fair weather.