Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1049 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Our wave is crashing into the crest of the ridge as we speak and losing steam quickly. This wave and a stronger wave moving along the northwest border of the CONUS will be damping the northern amplification of ridge which will push the jet stream to slightly lower latitudes. There is a little moisture able to slide north around the high into northern Arizona, southern Utah and southwestern Colorado to feed isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms powered by diurnal heating and orographic lift. A 90 kt jet streak is just to the north across Wyoming, mowing down any ridging trying to build north over the Rockies resulting in a general longwave trough across the northern States and a dry zonal flow aloft over eastern Utah and Western Colorado.
421 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 A stalled frontal boundary is in place along the Florida state line with ridging across south Florida. Weak ridging will then remain across the area at the surface as upper energy lingers through the weekend. This will allow for diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day, with light to westerly flow in place keeping the highest chances inland. Will need to monitor HIs through the rest of the week, as highs continue in the lower to mid 90s. The ridge axis builds a little more north to across the area for the end of the period, with diurnal circulations dominating the wind flow.
highs across the area are expected to still reach into the lower 90s, except across parts of southeast Oklahoma where clouds linger for a little longer.
815 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Strong high pressure building over the Southwest this week will bring progressively hotter days.
311 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 (Today through Wednesday) The cold front continues to move southward towards the Florida Panhandle, with relatively cooler and drier air filtering into the area in the wake of the front. As the drier airmass builds in behind the front, dewpoints have begun to drop into the low 60s across the far northern tier. Low temperatures as the morning begins will range from the low 60s across the far northern tier to the low 70s in south-central Georgia. Patchy fog will be possible during the early morning hours, most likely across east Georgia where dewpoints remain the highest. High pressure will settle in over the Southeast today, which will largely inhibit convection across the forecast area. High temperatures will be slightly warmer than today, in the low to mid 90s.
Tuesday: Last evening showers and thunderstorms developed across Nebraska as a cold front sank south into the area. As we head into the late evening, the low level jet will strengthen and aid in increasing storm coverage. The most likely scenario is that morning activity could keep the northern half of the forecast area much cooler than the southern half as it sends an outflow boundary through the area.
Maintained the highest POPs north of PIT, with a broad gradient to the south given the uncertainty in the location of the front.
A few strong to severe The subtropical ridge will remain the dominant weather feature through tomorrow, with hot temperatures continuing.
An upper low continues to migrate across NE WA at this hour and will be tracking into western Montana toward middle to late morning Tuesday. /Solveig 06Z TAFS: An upper low migrating over the region will keep limited shower and thunderstorm chances over the northern mountain and north ID tonight through Tuesday, but generally away from TAF sites.
316 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 Water vapor imagery shows very dry air in the mid and upper levels spreading into the local area as troughing settles in.
300 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 KEY MESSAGES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS: * Much warmer today.
temps are expected to be warmer than last night with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s for most locations.
With the frontal boundary likely being positioned near the Missouri/Iowa border, expect continued southerly flow to support sufficient warm-air and moisture advection across the forecast area with forecast high temperatures in the low/mid 90s with dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to low 70s.
While it's possible that a few of these may approach the western border of our CWA, there is low confidence in these storms making significant progress into our area as the ridge continues to build overhead, so will keep the forecast dry for now.
1214 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 A weak cold front will stall over the area tonight and meander nearby into mid week before dissipating. An inland trough will develop later in the week as high pressure begins to build over the Atlantic. Mid and upper level ridging will stretch from the southwest United States into the Gulf of Mexico and then into the ocean east of the Bahamas through the period, while a deep cyclone persists over or near Hudson Bay in Canada.
920 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023 The aforementioned ridge will keep hot (upper 80s to middle 90s) temperatures and mostly dry conditions around through at least Wednesday. Much of the area should be breezy each afternoon this week as WY will be in the transition zone between high pressure and low pressure. The ridge flattens on Wednesday as dirty zonal flow takes its place.
118 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 Low pressure over New England tracks slowly northeast tonight. Weak high pressure builds to the south and west late tonight into Tuesday, and into the area Tuesday night. Low pressure continues to slowly move northeast away from the area. The upper low will also be tracking to the north and northeast of the area as heights begin to slowly rise, and a weak ridge builds to the west. Just some scattered clouds on the backside of the low tonight, mainly across the interior.
Expecting cloudiness to move out by this afternoon as ridging across western Texas starts to build into our south as well as the start of excessive heating.
154 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure and dry weather are expected tonight through Wednesday.
(Today through Wednesday) Hot and rain free conditions persist through the short term as the region remains on the eastern periphery of a 595-596 dam ridge. The flow aloft then becomes more east-northeasterly later tonight into Wednesday as the ridge expands and builds in slightly more eastward. Expect this low stratus to erode by mid to late morning as daytime heating establishes and dew points start to mix out. The Overnight lows remain very warm as well with most locations in the mid to upper 70s but some locales could remain stuck in the low 80s.
This nice weather is thanks to a large area of high pressure currently over the Appalachians and Tennessee Valley. An upper-level trough will move into the region on Wednesday, bringing increased chances for showers and storms. A surface cold front will likely stall over the southern Great Lakes region.
1221 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Pleasant conditions in place across much of the state today will slowly deteriorate through the period as sfc ridging begins to shift eastward. As mid-level ridging to the SW expands, temperatures will end up in the mid/upper 90s F across parts of the state by Wednesday.
At the surface, high pressure currently over much of the CWA will get pushed east today as a frontal boundary works its way in from the west. Shear will be plentiful again, with the highest amounts of shear across the southern and southeastern part of the CWA, so this looks to be the most likely area to see some stronger storms Wednesday afternoon. A stubborn upper level low continues to currently spin across portions of northern Ontario and northern Manitoba, Canada. Meanwhile, an upper high remains draped across parts of the southwest U.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler today with 80s farther inland and 70s closer to the lake. As you could expect, with the rain and cloud cover high temperatures will be even cooler with highs in the 70s across much of the area.
(Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure remains centered near El Paso early this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are finally waning as a short wave trough rotating southeastward on the east side of the ridge begins to exit the area. Models remain consistent with a slight expansion of the ridge to the east with an uptick in heights and thicknesses across the forecast area. If something does form, the high- based nature points to a limited high wind threat, an idea progged DCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg also support.
A cold front is situated upstream from the Eastern U. - Risk for showers/storms late tonight into Tuesday Weak elevated instability shows up along the cold frontal zone later tonight and into Tuesday.
408 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure will build over the area today bringing mostly sunny and pleasantly warm conditions with more comfortable humidity levels.
Issued by National Weather Service Wakefield VA 420 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 A typical summertime pattern with high pressure offshore and troughing inland will redevelop through late this week bringing hot and muggy weather. High pressure remains over the eastern seaboard through midweek keeping things warm dry and muggy across ENC. The next chance at some unsettled weather will be this weekend as several weak impulses round the base of a broad upper level low in Canada.
242 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure and dry weather are expected tonight through Wednesday.
Low pressure stationed along the east coast of the CONUS has pushed offshore overnight which will be the first piece to a bit of a pattern change across South Florida. High pressure over the western Atlantic will build westward which should lead to a prevailing southeast flow across the area by late today. Highs in the low to mid 90s are expected with heat indices likely reaching the 105-110 degree mark.
While severe weather chances are expected to remain on the low side, heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible with showers and storms. Expect high temperatures today to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Rain and storms are likely Wednesday along with cooler weather with highs near 80. Very warm weather is ahead today as return flow continues on the back (west) side of the high pressure area that was south of the Ohio River. Temperatures should be a little warmer today with somewhat of a superadiabatic lapse rate near the ground. After Wednesday, chances for showers and storms will be more limited as an upper low drifts south and amplifies into the Upper Great Lakes region.
Rua (Tonight through Wednesday night) Overhead we have an upper trough stretching from the northern East Coast to the Gulf Coast and ridge over the Four Corners States / Texas. At the surface we have a ridge over the Gulf. We will see more of a pattern change from Wednesday, with the ridge out west starting to build into the area.
and Wednesday A ridge of high pressure will build in across the western Great Lakes region today as drier and cooler weather filters in across the region behind a departing cold front. Temperatures today will be noticeably cooler under sunny skies; ranging from the lower to middle 70s across the north with highs around 80 across central and east- central Wisconsin away from Lake Michigan. A low pressure system developing over the central Plains will track east towards Iowa tonight, then track east towards lower Michigan on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday are expected to mainly be in the lower to middle 70s away from Lake Michigan.
948 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Most recent Water Vapor and upper air analysis shows upper ridge sitting over the rockies/northern plains, and closed upper low over northern Ontario, with troughing in the New England region. Today will be the warmest day of the week, as the ridge slides over the region. Might see a warmer, dry weekend as the upper low shifts eastward and upper ridging builds over the western CONUS, however much will depend on the track of the upper low as it shifts. If upper ridge builds strongly over the western US in the long range as some models are showing, we may finally see a prolonged period of warm and dry weather nearing the end of the month.
133 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure will build across the region tonight. Temperatures will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Milder temperatures with Tuesday night lows from the lower 60s to the upper 60s. Even so, a trough digging across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday evening along with the aforementioned moisture gives the first rainfall chances of the period.
350 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 As of around midnight, a southward sagging cold front is currently draped from the North Dakota Badlands southeastward to near Sioux Falls and back northeastward toward Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Sunny skies, near to slightly below normal temps, and afternoon relative humidity values in the low to mid 40s are on tap. We are still cashing in on the dry air behind the departed cold front.
Current temperatures in the lower 60s with winds approx. The upper high expands over the southern CONUS on Wednesday with the ridge axis shifting slightly eastward.
357 AM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023 A weak upper level trough is exiting our eastern areas currently with light showers over our northeast areas, including the Teton Valley area. Look for high pressure ridging to build into the area from the west today.
921 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 Cold front on the Florida and Georgia border continues to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity along the Nature Coast. A stalled frontal boundary is in place along the Florida state line with ridging across south Florida. Weak ridging will then remain across the area at the surface as upper energy lingers through the weekend. This will allow for diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day, with light to westerly flow in place keeping the highest chances inland. Will need to monitor HIs through the rest of the week, as highs continue in the lower to mid 90s. The ridge axis builds a little more north to across the area for the end of the period, with diurnal circulations dominating the wind flow.
This pattern, courtesy of the strong broad mid/ upper ridge situated around Far West TX, is not progged to move a lot from this general location these next several days.
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trof spinning in the northern Rockies.
626 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure remains centered near El Paso early this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are finally waning as a short wave trough rotating southeastward on the east side of the ridge begins to exit the area. Models remain consistent with a slight expansion of the ridge to the east with an uptick in heights and thicknesses across the forecast area. If something does form, the high- based nature points to a limited high wind threat, an idea progged DCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg also support.
635 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 As of around midnight, a southward sagging cold front is currently draped from the North Dakota Badlands southeastward to near Sioux Falls and back northeastward toward Green Bay, Wisconsin.
624 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure and dry weather are expected through Wednesday.
A dryline should develop to the south near Highway 61 in southwest Nebraska as a warm front sets up east near Highway 91.
KEY MESSAGES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS: * Much warmer today.
942 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure will move over the Mid-Atlantic through tonight.
Current surface analysis shows a cold front draped through lower Wisconsin, with temperatures behind the front in the 50s to low/mid 60s. Cooler and drier air look to follow for the day on Tuesday, with highs reaching into the mid to upper 70s and low to mid 80s (mainly to the south).
704 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 Water vapor imagery shows very dry air in the mid and upper levels spreading into the local area as troughing settles in.
1041 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure and dry weather are expected through Wednesday.
Parts of mountains and valleys are expected to reach the low 70s to low 80s. The urban corridor and plains will reach the low to mid 90s.
657 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 Aviation/Marine Thunderstorms are currently moving across Lake Michigan along an axis of elevated instability, low level convergence, higher surface dew points ahead of the cold front, and along a low level jet pointing at central Lower Michigan.
High pressure centered across the Ohio Valley region will maintain dry weather and mostly sunny skies across the area today.
807 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 A stalled frontal boundary is in place along the Florida state line with ridging across south Florida. Weak ridging will then remain across the area at the surface as upper energy lingers through the weekend. This will allow for diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day, with light to westerly flow in place keeping the highest chances inland. Will need to monitor HIs through the rest of the week, as highs continue in the lower to mid 90s. The ridge axis builds a little more north to across the area for the end of the period, with diurnal circulations dominating the wind flow.
625 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Hot and rain free conditions persist through the short term as the region remains on the eastern periphery of a 595-596 dam ridge. The flow aloft then becomes more east-northeasterly later tonight into Wednesday as the ridge expands and builds in slightly more eastward. Expect this low stratus to erode by mid to late morning as daytime heating establishes and dew points start to mix out. The Overnight lows remain very warm as well with most locations in the mid to upper 70s but some locales could remain stuck in the low 80s.
The higher rainfall chances and cloud cover will hold Max temps in the mid/upper 80s across NE FL, expect more insolation and late in the day convection to allow for Max temps to push into the lower 90s across SE GA. A cold frontal system will become quasi-stationary just north of the Florida-Georgia State-line today. A thin band of convection currently moving across the area is a pre-frontal trough which will become the focusing mechanism for convection later this morning and into the late evening, mainly across north Florida south of State Road 16.
Multi-model guidance then shows an upper ridge building over the West Coast late this week. Deep layer warming and drying will occur with the building ridge, and interior valley high temperatures will increase significantly.
729 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 A cold frontal system will become quasi-stationary just north of the Florida-Georgia State-line today. A thin band of convection currently moving across the area is a pre-frontal trough which will become the focusing mechanism for convection later this morning and into the late evening, mainly across north Florida south of State Road 16.
Lows tonight will fall into the low 70s across the area.
623 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure will build over the area today bringing mostly sunny and pleasantly warm conditions with more comfortable humidity levels.
Surface pattern is dominated by high pressure, with larger scale subsidence/deeper dry air aloft this morning. We will be monitoring a mid level wave traversing W-NW flow later this afternoon into Wednesday, but the position of the main baroclinic zone to our west and south and influence of high pressure locally lower confidence in rain totals/impacts.
(Today through Wednesday) The cold front continues to move southward towards the Florida Panhandle, with relatively cooler and drier air filtering into the area in the wake of the front. As the drier airmass builds in behind the front, dewpoints have begun to drop into the low 60s across the far northern tier. Low temperatures as the morning begins will range from the low 60s across the far northern tier to the low 70s in south-central Georgia. Patchy fog will be possible during the early morning hours, most likely across east Georgia where dewpoints remain the highest. High pressure will settle in over the Southeast today, which will largely inhibit convection across the forecast area. High temperatures will be slightly warmer than today, in the low to mid 90s.
Hotter temperatures with drier weather is likely for this weekend as high pressure strengthens. High pressure over eastern Arizona and New Mexico will continue to pump moisture northward into Arizona for today. HREF and U of A WRF guidance show that much of the activity is expected to be along and north of the Mogollon Rim, with potentially some isolated storms developing over the higher terrain of Yavapai County as well.
High pressure will weaken and push off to the east and our weather will be more influenced by a strong upper level low over the Hudson Bay. Rain chances for tomorrow look to remain low, just an isolated chance for a shower or storm as the higher moisture builds in during the late afternoon into the evening.
As the ridge builds slightly eastward tomorrow, expect high temperatures to increase to near or above 100 degrees for much of the area, with humidity making it feel more like 105 to 115 degrees. Could see a few storms sneak into northeastern Oklahoma tomorrow night along a weak cold front, but the majority of this activity is expected to remain north and east of our area as the front stalls.
A weak inland trough will develop tomorrow as high pressure builds over the Atlantic through the week. Broad troughing will persist aloft tonight. Low temperatures will mainly be in the lower 70s, except mid/upper 70s closer to the coast and at the beaches. Aloft, nearly zonal flow will persist as the area remains situated between a large trough well to the north and weak ridging to the south.
Warmer and more humid conditions will arrive to the Midsouth on Wednesday, and persist for several days.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Message: -Dangerous Heat continues Wednesday As a ridge of high pressure in the upper levels remains parked over Western Texas/Southern New Mexico, hot temperatures and high humidity will work in concert Wednesday, resulting in another day with maximum heat index values above 110F across the area during the afternoon hours.
Weak and nearly stationary cold front is currently located just northwest of the forecast area outlined by weak ongoing convection near Lewistown. Can't rule out isolated weak instability showers over the plains, but any thunderstorms will be very isolated and confined to the higher terrain.
The latest guidance has trended cooler but forecast maximum temperatures Wednesday could be significantly cooler than currently forecast.
Elongated trough along the lee-side of the Rockies is expected to deepen and move into western and central Nebraska overnight. Once the storms develop into a complex, the storms are expected to move south and east along the thermal ridge into Iowa and possibly northern Missouri. Complex is expected to push cold front/outflow boundary south leading to thermal contrast from north-south across the forecast area. With temperatures in the upper 90s and dew points in the lower 70s ahead of the boundary, heat indicies will warm to 105-110 F tomorrow afternoon. As a starting point, issued a small heat advisory for Wednesday across west central Missouri covering the area with the highest confidence of reaching heat advisory criteria, including the KC metro.
1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Hot and rain free conditions persist through the short term as the region remains on the eastern periphery of a 595-596 dam ridge. The flow aloft then becomes more east-northeasterly later tonight into Wednesday as the ridge expands and builds in slightly more eastward. Expect this low stratus to erode by mid to late morning as daytime heating establishes and dew points start to mix out. The Overnight lows remain very warm as well with most locations in the mid to upper 70s but some locales could remain stuck in the low 80s.
With high pressure over eastern and northern North Dakota, southerly flow at the surface is maintaining moist air in the southwest with boundary layer dewpoints in excess of 55 degrees.
211 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 High pressure and dry weather are expected tonight and Wednesday.