Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper ridge remains over the southeast extending into the central U. An upper low continues over the western U. The upper ridge is expected to weaken somewhat Tuesday. High temperatures today will be around 80 degrees to the lower 90s and cooler Tuesday in the upper 60s to mid 80s. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows Monday night will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
Cooler and less humid conditions are expected today, with temperatures turning more seasonable by midweek.
High pressure still remains across the Southeast, but it will begin to breakdown today as a front to our north and west approaches the area.
A ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada through the week this week. At the same time, a low pressure system will continue to migrate north and west out of the Great Basin into central Washington. While the ridge has brought well above normal temperatures to areas of Oregon, Washington and Canada, the influence of this low pressure system has kept the warmer temperatures at bay in the Northern Rockies. For the next 3 days, the aforementioned low pressure system will begin to aid in the development of afternoon and evening thunderstorms each of the 3 days. Ensemble members agree that the ridge of high pressure will strengthen by the end of this week and this weekend.
A ridge of high pressure across the west will continue to bring above normal temperatures to the area this week. Beneath the ridge, moisture gets directed into the area, providing at least a low probability of thunderstorms forming over the higher terrain each afternoon this week.
On Tuesday the low over the Carribean moves off to the east, and the low level easterly flow weakens across the area.
The high will remain over the region through Tuesday.
Any fog that does develop, along with the low clouds, will lift by late morning as drier air and daytime heating take over. By the afternoon hours, mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures (highs in the 70s for most) will be back across the region thanks to the strong ridge to our north.
443 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023 (Today through Tuesday) A slowly weakening ridge at 500 mb will persist across Alabama today, and the associated anticyclonic flow should contribute to some subsidence near the center of the ridge. However, with the slight weakening of the ridge, scattered showers and storms appear possible this afternoon into the early evening. Significant height falls will take place on Tuesday as a trough moves in from the northwest.
85" with the highest values across Pinal, most of Pima and Santa Cruz counties.
639 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023 High pressure continues to take hold over the area through tonight.
The high clouds will then push back over the region tonight, as another wave moves across the Lower Ohio Valley. In general, low temperatures will be near or a few degrees warmer than those this morning, with little threat of frost across the far north.
Cooler temperatures are expected today across the area, although inland areas will remain slightly above seasonal normals. Coastal stratus will keep the coast cooler as well. Today a few showers are possible over the mountains and ridges of Trinity county. The upper level low has moved by to the north of the region. Over the interior the Hires Cams are showing some isolated showers over the higher terrain of Trinity county around peak heating.
Key Messages: - Cool and damp today, then becoming warmer with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through midweek.
Upper level high pressure encompassed much of the west with ridging extending from the Canadian Prairies through the Four Corners region. A weakness in the ridge was evident along the West Coast with an upper low over Oregon and troughing extending SSW to the Pacific waters west of SoCal and northern Baja. The surface reflection of these features included weak low pressure off the Oregon coastline and seasonally strong high pressure centered over the High Plains. For later today into Tuesday look for the upper low to our north to devolve to an open-wave trough before being picked up by the westerlies. The upper ridge will then flex into our area as a cutoff low evolves west of SoCal.
334 AM MDT Mon May 15 2023 Upper level ridge builds over the Four Corners the next 24 hours bringing a northwest flow aloft to northeast Colorado today and tonight. So if enough sun pokes through the clouds and temperatures climb into the lower to mid 60s, scattered showers and storms should prevail, west of I-25. The region remains under an upper level ridge with NW flow aloft Tuesday. Warming temperatures aloft will support an overall warmer day with highs back in the 70s across the plains/urban corridor. A backdoor cold front pushes easterly flow across the far eastern plains late afternoon/early evening, potentially advecting in a slightly more moist airmass across the plains.
Some light rain is possible across the southern third of Central PA Tuesday afternoon and early Tuesday night as a weak wave of low pressure passes by to our south.
Modest instability and shear look to be available for a few stronger storms this afternoon, especially along and south of the I-86 corridor from the Magic Valley into the Lower Snake Plain.
Carrying 40-60 percent PoPs for this afternoon, with the highest rain chances over our southern counties.
628 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023 (Today and Tonight) An area of low pressure aloft, currently evident on mosaic radar spinning over the Red River and lifting north, was likely produced from convection down near the Gulf Coast last night. The system is expected to continue north this morning before turning to the northeast this afternoon and tonight, as the broader upper trough over the central CONUS shifts east. The highest PoPs should initially be over NE OK, shifting toward NW AR this afternoon in tandem with the wave.
Mid/upper level high pressure over the Deep South drifts towards the peninsula through the day today, while a weak low over the Straits of Florida drifts eastward into the western Atlantic.
Another warm and humid day will prevail across the Midsouth today, as the region remains under an upper level ridge of high pressure. Rain chances will increase on Tuesday, ahead of an upper level disturbance and surface cold front.
614 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023 Another warm and humid day will prevail across the Midsouth today, as the region remains under an upper level ridge of high pressure. Rain chances will increase on Tuesday, ahead of an upper level disturbance and surface cold front.
627 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Key Message: - There is a low chance (10-15%) for isolated to scattered flash flooding across South Texas today and Tuesday GOES-East water vapor channels indicate a narrow trough axis extending east of the Continental Divide southward into northern Mexico with several clusters of thunderstorms located near the base of the trough. Model guidance indicates that this trough will slowly progress eastward through Tuesday and provide upper level support for ascent. Chances for precipitation will be slightly lower on Tuesday as upper level support for ascent gradually decreases as the trough axis becomes centered over South Texas.
MH (Issued 344 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023) Today through Tuesday: Cloud cover may be a bit pesky over far srn WI this morning as the upper trough over central WI weakens and slows as it runs into the upper ridge over the central and srn MS River Valley. At the sfc, high pressure will prevail with a lake breeze expected. Lgt wly winds and warm advection will begin tnt and last into Tue until a backdoor cold front arrives during the afternoon. This front is in response to a large, digging upper trough that will swing into New England from Canada from Tue into Wed.
527 AM MDT Mon May 15 2023 08z surface analysis had weak trough from northern MN into southeast WY. Water vapour showed leftover weak upper trough circulation over western SD with main effect being some mid/high clouds.
529 AM MDT Mon May 15 2023 Upper level ridge builds over the Four Corners the next 24 hours bringing a northwest flow aloft to northeast Colorado today and tonight. So if enough sun pokes through the clouds and temperatures climb into the lower to mid 60s, scattered showers and storms should prevail, west of I-25. The region remains under an upper level ridge with NW flow aloft Tuesday. Warming temperatures aloft will support an overall warmer day with highs back in the 70s across the plains/urban corridor. A backdoor cold front pushes easterly flow across the far eastern plains late afternoon/early evening, potentially advecting in a slightly more moist airmass across the plains.
355 AM MDT Mon May 15 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: In the short term, an upper level ridge over Alberta will remain in place bringing warmer temperatures and overall drier conditions save for a scattered, diurnally driven shower or thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon.
744 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023 Aviation --Cold temperatures this morning-- As per the previous forecast the overnight temperatures remain on track to be at and below freezing along the US 10 corridor and in the low 30s through much of central Michigan. -- Mild weather and dry through most of the week -- The early week will be dominated by a large upper level low situated over Eastern Canada. This low will propagate southward sweeping a band of dry air and warmer temperatures today into tomorrow. However, following this warmer and drier air will be a moisture starved cold front.
Otherwise, current temperatures are running around 5-15 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago and range from the mid 40s to mid 50s in the mountains, to the mid 50s to lower 70s in the Central Valley (warmest at the north end of the valley). The closed low will drift northward over the PacNW today allowing high pressure to build over NorCal.
441 AM MDT Mon May 15 2023 A weak flow pattern with several weak upper lows will dominate through the period. Overall, a messy ridge will result in warming temps early this week before a cold front drops temps back to normal late in the week.
Flow was quite weak at all levels, with generally weak northerly flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere. With the plains expected to be quite stable this afternoon, little in the way of any precip is expected over the lower elevations. Showers and tsra over the higher terrain will linger into the early to mid evening time period before dissipating.
Afternoon highs in the low 90s with a light breeze.
916 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023 High pressure continues to take hold over the area through tonight.
The south winds are forecast to gust to around 30 mph at lower elevations and could gust to advisory speeds along exposed areas in the higher terrain of southern Lake County and Eastern Modoc County. The low driving the instability and introducing the moisture is trending a bit further north than models indicated in previous days. With the quicker north track of the low this has reduced the chance for thunderstorms in NorCal but the chance is much lower than in Southern Oregon.
(Today through Tuesday) Key Message: - There is a low chance (10-15%) for isolated to scattered flash flooding across South Texas today and Tuesday GOES-East water vapor channels indicate a narrow trough axis extending east of the Continental Divide southward into northern Mexico with several clusters of thunderstorms located near the base of the trough. Model guidance indicates that this trough will slowly progress eastward through Tuesday and provide upper level support for ascent. Chances for precipitation will be slightly lower on Tuesday as upper level support for ascent gradually decreases as the trough axis becomes centered over South Texas.
In terms of temperatures, most areas likely already hit their peak for the day which ended up being the low to even mid 90s for most places. With the ridge broken down we will see a slight, key word slight, decrease in afternoon high temperatures as they reach the upper 80s for most areas.
Between the stratus and north winds of 10-20 mph, afternoon temperatures will remain well below mid May normals, struggling into the low to mid 60s (normal is 78 at DDC). This morning, the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles mid to late week were in good agreement and showed an upper ridge over the western United States moving slowly east, which was similar to what was observed yesterday morning.
110 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023 High pressure will keep the region dry through tonight. Low pressure passing south over WV could bring a brief period of light rain Tuesday, with greatest chances south of I-70. Some slight warming in the low-mid levels and an increase high clouds should keep temperatures a degree or two warmer than last night, which should limit any concerns for frost.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Upper level high pressure encompassed much of the west with ridging extending from the Canadian Prairies through the Four Corners region. A weakness in the ridge was evident along the West Coast with an upper low over Oregon and troughing extending SSW to the Pacific waters west of SoCal and northern Baja. The surface reflection of these features included weak low pressure off the Oregon coastline and seasonally strong high pressure centered over the High Plains. For later today into Tuesday look for the upper low to our north to devolve to an open-wave trough before being picked up by the westerlies. The upper ridge will then flex into our area as a cutoff low evolves west of SoCal.
348 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023 Low pressure will track across Kentucky on Tuesday. High pressure will then build in for mid week. A cold front will move through the region at the end of the week. Slight cooler and drier airmass will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s Tuesday night.
At the surface, high is located over SD and stretches through western Nebraska, with a cold front from southern MO into central TX. So Flint Hills and especially southeast KS will have the higher rain chances this evening. For Wed night into Thu morning there is good model agreement in a deep upper low sinking south across Manitoba and into the northern Plains by Thu afternoon. For Thu into Thu night, the deep upper low will be tracking into northern MN and finally into the Northern Great Lakes region. This will allow a fairly strong cold front to sink south across the Plains and will provide high rain chances for Thu night into Fri. Widely scattered showers continue to progress east with the highest concentration across eastern KS.
Isolated showers were occurring in southeast Oregon and the Lower Treasure Valley this morning.
200 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 While temperatures are rather uniform over the CWA, in the lower to mid 60s at 1 PM, we're definitely seeing a far more pleasant day in the northeast 1/2 of the area, with sunshine and light winds, as opposed to the cloud cover, and east winds found in the southwest 1/2. Another round of stronger F-gen forcing is forecasted for late evening, and early overnight, which the NBM is showing 60-70 percent pops south of Highway 34 again, and like last night, that seems like a good stratiform rain threat, but given the low level dry air flow, will push this a bit south to our far southern areas, that saw rain this past morning.
1138 AM MDT Mon May 15 2023 A weak flow pattern with several weak upper lows will dominate through the period. Overall, a messy ridge will result in warming temps early this week before a cold front drops temps back to normal late in the week.
(Through Tuesday) Mid level high pressure overhead today is forecast to weaken a bit and push to our southeast overnight into Tuesday.
Highs will range from the mid 80s in the higher elevations far east to readings in the lower 90s west and far south. The mid level flow pattern will continue to flatten as weak troughing approaches form the west on Tuesday.
247 PM MDT Mon May 15 2023 Water vapor imagery showing a weakening upper high over south central Canada, with a broad area of low pressure over the Great Basin. Tuesday will be similar with convection chances, although the activity will likely be able to develop farther off the higher terrain and impact the central zones, including Billings. High temperatures on Tuesday will be warmer, with maxes reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s.
211 PM MDT Mon May 15 2023 Current surface analysis shows high pressure over the northern and central plains with a trough developing to the east of the Rockies in Alberta/Montana/Wyoming.
330 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 Periodic chances for showers and isolated storms will be possible through tomorrow as a low pressure area slowly drifts across southern Illinois. A low pressure area will slowly drift from southern MO into southern IL by later tonight, and then into the lower OH valley tomorrow through tomorrow night. Higher pops will be closer to the low with northern areas of the CWA likely not seeing any precip through the period. The highest QPF will be during the 12hrs from midnight through noon tomorrow. However, slightly cooler air will move into the area behind the low, and overnight lows Tue night are expected to be around 50. Auten Dry weather and seasonable temps are expected Wed through Thur as high pressure dominates the area.
1224 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 (Today through Tuesday) A slowly weakening ridge at 500 mb will persist across Alabama today, and the associated anticyclonic flow should contribute to some subsidence near the center of the ridge. However, with the slight weakening of the ridge, scattered showers and storms appear possible this afternoon into the early evening. Significant height falls will take place on Tuesday as a trough moves in from the northwest.
scattered rain showers continued to lift northward and wrap around the base of the low across Eastern Oklahoma. more scattered cloud cover had allowed for warmer conditions.
Isolated thunderstorms have developed along an associated warm front across portions of southeast Missouri early this afternoon. The highest PoPs will be across our western half of counties this evening, and across the north half late tonight along the warm front. As the low and associated cold front move into the PAH fa by early Tuesday, the focus of highest PoPs will shift to our eastern half of counties late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. The highest rainfall amounts through Tuesday will be just west and north of our region, so any flood concerns should not be widespread enough to issue any headlines for our counties at this time. Drier and cooler air will filter into the PAH forecast area for Tuesday night.
1037 AM MDT Mon May 15 2023 08z surface analysis had weak trough from northern MN into southeast WY. Water vapour showed leftover weak upper trough circulation over western SD with main effect being some mid/high clouds.
A ridge of high pressure centered directly overhead means weak flow and minimal wind shear, but anticipated 90 degree temps over upper 60s/near 70 dew points should yield SBCAPE over 3000 J/kg over most of the area. /JNE/ Tuesday, we will begin to see a pattern change as the upper ridge breaks down, allowing for a less subsident regime and increased flow aloft. 7 inches and dewpoints in the lower 70s.
The eastern edge of a much warmer 850mb air mass moves into the forecast area on Tuesday, while upper flow becomes more northerly. Highs will be slightly warmer today, in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with mostly sunny skies except for any smoke that moves in. A cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms starting midweek, with cooler temperatures to end the work week before warming up again this weekend. Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement on a closed low dropping south from the Canadian Prairies through the middle and end of the work week, bringing multiple cold front passages and chances for showers and thunderstorms.
An upper low across northeastern Oregon is spinning moisture into the northern Rockies this afternoon triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms.
133 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Key Message: - There is a low chance (10-15%) for isolated to scattered flash flooding across South Texas today and Tuesday GOES-East water vapor channels indicate a narrow trough axis extending east of the Continental Divide southward into northern Mexico with several clusters of thunderstorms located near the base of the trough. Model guidance indicates that this trough will slowly progress eastward through Tuesday and provide upper level support for ascent. Chances for precipitation will be slightly lower on Tuesday as upper level support for ascent gradually decreases as the trough axis becomes centered over South Texas.
Very little shear was noted in the low to mid levels, thanks to a ridge parked over the Desert Southwest, and weak mid-level wave pushing through Oklahoma and north Texas. Tomorrow, the axis of the mid-level trough will shift southeast over to east Texas, so coverage of thunderstorms should be far less than today.
226 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023 Seasonably warm temperatures will continue into Tuesday, ahead of an approaching cold front.
Morning lows will fall into the lower to middle 60s.
As the upper level low that is part of the ongoing mini-rex block lifts out, the surface pressure gradient will essentially collapse.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Current surface analysis has our cold front analyzed across the Edwards Plateau, extending back west through the Big Bend over into the Davis Mtns/Marfa Plateau corridor. A slow clearing of cloud cover through tomorrow morning, outside the Lower Trans Pecos where clouds will likely linger.
Moisture continues to move into Arizona from the east and southeast, as high pressure strengthens and assumes a favorable position near the Four Corners. The stronger high pressure will only be a temporary thing, weakening as early as this afternoon and into Tuesday.
(Through tonight ) Area of low pressure in the mid levels continues to move across eastern OK this afternoon, and will gradually lift to the northeast through tonight. A cooler and drier airmass will spread across part of northeast OK resulting in cooler temps tonight. (Tomorrow through Monday) Aside from some lingering shower chances across northwest AR, Tuesday will feature dry weather, albeit with limited sunshine and cooler daytime highs.
For Tuesday, showers and storms will become likely area wide as a cold front moves into the area.
1225 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 Another warm and humid day will prevail across the Midsouth today, as the region remains under an upper level ridge of high pressure. Rain chances will increase on Tuesday, ahead of an upper level disturbance and surface cold front.
125 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023 Aviation --Cold temperatures this morning-- As per the previous forecast the overnight temperatures remain on track to be at and below freezing along the US 10 corridor and in the low 30s through much of central Michigan. -- Mild weather and dry through most of the week -- The early week will be dominated by a large upper level low situated over Eastern Canada. This low will propagate southward sweeping a band of dry air and warmer temperatures today into tomorrow. However, following this warmer and drier air will be a moisture starved cold front.
RH values have dropped down to the 15 to 30 percent range across most of northwestern MN even with the high level smoke. Ridging above us gives us clear to mostly clear skies and sunshine through mid- week.
Diurnal convection over the higher terrain, mainly driven by a slight increase in lapse rates, will generally diminish as it moves eastward into more stable air. Expect a notably warmer day on Tuesday with mostly sunny skies throughout the high plains and northern Front Range. Temperatures will return to average or slightly-above average with highs in the low 70s expected from Cheyenne through Sidney. Any convective activity should generally be tied to the higher terrain and will diminish after sunset.
Visible satellite is showing that cloud lines are developing along the Lower and Middle Keys. Temperatures are once again in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s.