Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
611 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Added patchy freezing drizzle for parts of our southeastern counties for tonight. Have received a report of freezing drizzle near Holdenville within the past hour or so. Roads will continue to be slick this evening for areas that received precipitation earlier in the day, as temperatures will get down into the lower 20s to upper teens overnight. As cloud cover remains overhead, in addition to northerly winds, have adjusted Tuesday high temperatures cooler than guidance would suggest. Freezing rain/sleet is expected for most areas south of I-40. There is some hint in model guidance in elevated instability across southern Oklahoma Tuesday morning into the afternoon which could induce some thunder sleet/freezing rain. Across southern Oklahoma, freezing rain accumulations can be expected of up to.
A cold low pressure system will swing inland tonight and move across southern Arizona Tuesday leading to gradually clearing skies and gusty north winds. especially along the lower Colorado River Valley.
For the first time in awhile, ample sunshine is in place across all of eastern Idaho as Arctic high pressure remains over the region. Further south into the lower Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley, wind chills come daybreak will likely fall somewhere in the 15 to 25 below range. Actual air temperatures will be 10 degrees warmer or so compared to this morning but that still leaves just about everyone well below zero overnight.
High pressure will remain over the waters for the next few days with winds and seas below headlines.
High pressure will then build in and persist through the rest of the week. Seeing some very light drizzle/freezing drizzle in the shallow moisture between the departing wave and the incoming wave. Much of this is forecast to be snow, but forecast soundings suggest that there could be some sleet and/or freezing rain at onset. This could end as a period of freezing drizzle as there is the potential to lose ice within the cloud. Thereafter, high pressure will start to build in. The high will bring a colder airmass. Highs will range from the lower 20s to lower 30s while lows will be from around 10 to the lower 20s.
212 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023 Current surface map places trof across the western Dakotas with 1035+ high centered over Iowa. Low level warm advection and clouds will keep warmer temperatures across northwest South Dakota tonight. Upper level ridge builds across the Pacific Northwest early this week with arctic air shunted eastward.
A cold low pressure system will push southeast across southern Arizona today bringing drier conditions along with gusty north winds. especially along the lower Colorado River Valley.
Current surface map places trof across the western Dakotas with 1035+ high centered over Iowa. Low level warm advection and clouds will keep warmer temperatures across northwest South Dakota tonight. Upper level ridge builds across the Pacific Northwest early this week with arctic air shunted eastward.
Will leave the highlights going for the snow advisory in Zones 34 and 36. The main trough over the Desert Southwest/southern CA will continue to shift southward overnight.
At the surface a large high pressure center stretches from eastern Nebraska through north central Kansas and the upper level winds continue to show a longwave trough from the northern plains to the desert southwest with a closed low over LA. With winds staying on the light side wind chill values will fall to around -5 to -10 so just slightly warmer than advisory criteria.
This will lead to a repeat of this morning with light freezing drizzle and some ice pellets developing and moving from southwest to northeast through the early morning hours.
High pressure will then build in and persist through the rest of the week. Based on some roads getting a dusting of snow (road surface temperatures dropping to near freezing at this time), have covered the region with a Special Weather Statement to advise of some potential for slick spots. This could end as a period of freezing drizzle as there is the potential to lose ice within the cloud. Thereafter, high pressure will start to build in. The high will bring a colder airmass. Highs will range from the lower 20s to lower 30s while lows will be from around 10 to the lower 20s.
The freezing line is also holding in place over NE TX for now, but another degree or two colder after midnight is not good news.
1038 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The deterministic model runs predict an upper pattern characterized by quasi-zonal flow, except for a nearly cut-off upper low moving slowly eastward or meandering over Baja CA. If surface freezing temperatures were to occur over the CWA, the thermodynamic structure (NAM deterministic SkewT-logP at select locations in the CWA) is suggestive of freezing rain. Although the NBM (via the WSUP viewer) outputs 20-25 percent probability of freezing rain over portions of the CWA Tuesday night, the deterministic NAM-12/RAP-13 and the SREF ensemble mean maintain surface temperatures above freezing tonight and Tuesday night. Thus, not highly confident in freezing precipitation at this time (Caveat, only a 5F cooler trend in model guidance would significantly increase the likelihood of freezing rain, especially over the northern CWA.
Mean layer ridging is centered very near the Florida Keys, keeping down a good layer of subsidence and considerable dry air above 850 mb. Meanwhile, the lower level ridge is centered just east of the Space Coast. Temperatures overnight will fall into the lower 70s with dew points remaining comfortably in the upper 60s.
332 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 Snow will taper off this morning as a cold front exits the region.
Temperatures across the area are either in the teens below zero or only slightly warmer. A few high clouds to continue across the area with an exiting area of high pressure situated off to the south and east. A large upper level ridge remains in place across the Pacific NW and Canadian Rockies with a large trough across Hudson Bay. After mid-week, the wind chills will be warmer in the daytime and become dangerous at night.
Thermal profiles continue to favor the refreeze sleet scenario over much of the region, with very little change to the low level cold air.
Upper level ridge moves eastward tomorrow which will strengthen the surface inversion over the next 3 to 4 days bringing stagnant conditions.
The cloud coverage will keep SE GA a little cooler Today, with highs generally in the 75 to 80 degree range. Another weak cold front will move southeast into SE GA Tonight. Lows Tonight in the lower 60s are expected.
1205 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 Warm, dry, and quiet conditions continue across South Florida this evening as pronounced 500mb ridging remains established across our area. Have a great evening! (Rest of today through Tuesday) Deep-layered high pressure will remain as the dominant synoptic scale feature over the area through the early portion of the week. Afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 80s though some isolated inland pockets could reach into the upper 80s.
116 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 A large center of high pressure encroaching from the northwest will keep the short term forecast quiet, but awfully cold. With the high centering itself over northern Illinois tomorrow morning, winds tonight into the morning should be very light, if not calm for several hours over the northwest CWA. Opted out of a wind chill advisory for tonight given the overall lack of wind and widespread wind chills expected to be slightly warmer than advisory criteria. Modest warm air advection in the return flow of the departing high will bring slightly warmer conditions for tomorrow night.
Mean-layer ridging with axis across the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba remains in place with the strong upper westerlies of the jet well removed to the north.
945 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023 Have issued a wind chill warning for southeast Fremont into the lower elevations of Natrona County. Warmer 700mb air moves in by mid-day Tuesday, and with it some increased westerly flow.
With a 1030mb to 1050mb MSLP area of high pressure situated overhead, frigid conditions continue across Eastern Idaho with coldest areas tonight bottoming out again at around 40 below zero. Isolated pockets of freezing fog will also be possible during the overnight hours with a focus on the Cache and Bear Lake Valleys this morning. The main ridge axis of high pressure will shift overhead Wednesday night bringing continued dry conditions as temperatures follow a warming trend.
As of 3 AM - the main center of low pressure has moved southward to southern Baja California and the secondary low is shearing out over northwest Arizona. The low will move slowly eastward through the day. Southern Yavapai, northern Gila, and possibly the eastern Mogollon Rim will be on the far northern fringe of the precipitation with the low. Tonight through Wednesday, the low shifts eastward through northern Sonora, and should be too far south for any additional precipitation in our forecast area.
High pressure will then build in and persist through the rest of the week offering dry weather. Most of the pcpn in Ohio will fall in the form of snow with some sleet and freezing rain possible mainly south of the Ohio River. Colder temperatures with highs ranging from the lower 20s northwest to lower 30s southeast. Large area of high pressure to build in from the west becoming centered over the area early Wednesday.
The flow becomes important for valley locations, as no defined low pressure system is evident westerly flow will lead to downsloping and slight warming in broad valleys, while northwest flow may allow for more widespread light precipitation in valleys.
319 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 The axis of an upper trough exits late today.
(Today through Wednesday) The most recent surface analysis indicated that the recently- much-discussed cold front has now cleared nearly the entire BRO CWFA, with only the southeast corner of the Gulf of Mexico marine zone still pre-frontal. NAM guidance was once again heavily favored, and forecast reasoning remains the same: well below normal daytime highs and overnight lows will prevail as cold air continues to pour into the region in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. Luckily, the combination of rain and temperatures will not support the chance of frozen precipitation, or even freezing temperatures tonight.
658 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 Snow will taper off this morning as a cold front exits the region.
227 AM PST Tue Jan 31 2023 Frigid lows will be in place this morning before temperatures rebound as high pressure briefly rebuilds over the region.
328 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 Current surface analysis shows high pressure southeast of the region, with low pressure over southwest Canada. A developing warm front extends southeast from the low into eastern MT. Upper level analysis shows positively tilted trough over the northern Plains, extending southwest to a cutoff low across southern CA/western AZ. Ridging is still located just off the west coast. Warm air advection continues today as developing warm front moves further east across the northern Plains and west to southwest winds increase.
422 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 Current surface analysis shows high pressure southeast of the region, with low pressure over southwest Canada. A developing warm front extends southeast from the low into eastern MT. Upper level analysis shows positively tilted trough over the northern Plains, extending southwest to a cutoff low across southern CA/western AZ. Ridging is still located just off the west coast. Warm air advection continues today as developing warm front moves further east across the northern Plains and west to southwest winds increase.
510 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 Northwest flow aloft will be building into the region today as the broad H5 ridge slowly moves inland along the Pacific Coast. Westerly flow along the lee of mountain ranges will bring some of this warmer air down into the western portions of basins, slowly starting to mix the edges of these cold pools, with moderation continuing through the remainder of the week. The overall moderating ridge will gradually shift east across the Intermountain West through the rest of the week, with a continuation of the moderation of temperatures closer to normal.
Cold temperatures and dry conditions will prevail across the region through Wednesday with sub-freezing morning lows across the San Joaquin Valley, before moderating later this week.
228 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 Northwest flow aloft will be building into the region today as the broad H5 ridge slowly moves inland along the Pacific Coast. Westerly flow along the lee of mountain ranges will bring some of this warmer air down into the western portions of basins, slowly starting to mix the edges of these cold pools, with moderation continuing through the remainder of the week. The overall moderating ridge will gradually shift east across the Intermountain West through the rest of the week, with a continuation of the moderation of temperatures closer to normal.
After that, warm temperatures will continue as high pressure is in control with a fairly moist airmass in place in the lower levels of the atmosphere, drier air aloft. Daytime highs are expected to peak into the lower to mid 80s again, resulting in above normal temps for this time of the year. High pressure should keep pleasant boating conditions over the Gulf waters through most of the week. Area of high pressure continues to dominate over fire districts.
540 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 Snow will taper off this morning as a cold front exits the region.