Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In light of a building short wave mid level ridge axis overhead this afternoon, larger scale subsidence will greatly limit the coverage of afternoon showers. This will maintain unsettled conditions with widely scattered to scattered light rain showers over the next several days as several vorticity lobes rotate around the upper low through the region.
202 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 High pressure will settle over the area this afternoon and evening today bringing cooler and drier conditions to the region.
Would not be shocked if a few low-lying areas mainly on the Cumberland Plateau reach freezing, otherwise temps should remain just above freezing for most. Despite the non- freezing temps, temps will be cold enough for frost development pretty much across the entire area.
Otherwise, dry, cooler conditions continue through the mid week before a brief warm up.
143 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Cooler temperatures and unsettled weather will occur today and last into midweek. Skies clear out for a few hours tonight across Luzerne and Lackawanna counties, combined with temps in the low to mid 30s, moist ground and light winds could lead to patchy frost, especially in the higher elevations. A large upper level trough is over the Midwest and upper Great Lakes. Closed off upper low will continue to influence our weather through the period as it spins nearly stationary over the Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations pivot around the the upper low and will bring increased chances for showers as they push through.
Quite cool today with mid afternoon temps only in the 40s and dewpoints in the lower 20s. With high pressure building into the area skies should become clear to partly cloudy. With a dry airmass in place and winds becoming light and variable the stage is set for a chilly night with frost/freezing temperatures.
207 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Key Messages: - Shower Chances Continue Into New Work Week - Slightly Below Seasonable Temperatures - Active Pattern Continues Through Midweek, Latter Half of the Week and Into the Weekend Showery Start To New Work Week: Upper level pattern stagnates for the first half of the new work week as the upper level low, near the Minnesota arrowhead on water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon, is expected to linger. A zonal quasi-inverted low level lee trough will enhance precipitation associated with this low through the night Monday, resulting in a narrow rain band situated southwest of the forecast area in central Iowa.
A dry cold front is currently making its way through north Georgia with little sensible impact other than a band of midlevel cloud cover in its wake. RW (Today through Monday) A dry cold front will drop south across the CWA today and tonight. High pressure will build in from the north overnight and Monday.
601 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Key Messages: - Shower Chances Continue Into New Work Week - Slightly Below Seasonable Temperatures - Active Pattern Continues Through Midweek, Latter Half of the Week and Into the Weekend Showery Start To New Work Week: Upper level pattern stagnates for the first half of the new work week as the upper level low, near the Minnesota arrowhead on water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon, is expected to linger. A zonal quasi-inverted low level lee trough will enhance precipitation associated with this low through the night Monday, resulting in a narrow rain band situated southwest of the forecast area in central Iowa.
624 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) Well-below normal temperatures in wake of yesterday's cold front will likely yield some record low maxes today as temps are still locked into the 40s anywhere east of the Davis Foothills. Temperatures are in the low-mid 40s over the Permian Basin with Midland locked into 43F at this hour. Actually had to adjust highs down 2-3 degrees areawide with this forecast package, despite the last forecast already forecasting a new record cold high in the low-50s. The low hanging fruit from '31 will fall gracefully under the guide of blanket overcast and downright cold air settled in place.
942 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 A trof will approach tonight into Monday, then slowly cross the region through mid week.
635 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front has pushed south of West Central Texas early this morning, with the severe threat shifting south of the area. Expect highs this afternoon in the low to mid 50s for most locations.
Fast, zonal flow will predominate at the mid-levels with decreased influence from passing vorticity maxima rounding the base of the Great Lakes upper low. The aforementioned part of the forecast is key to having a near excellent radiational cooling scenario tonight and ultimately achieve below freezing temperatures since winds are anticipated to go light and variable shortly after sunset. That being said, the official forecast reflects below freezing lows (30-32) for a good part of the area with the usual cold spots probably falling to the upper 20s.
1018 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Weak cold front will push across the area and just offshore late tonight or early Mon before stalling. High pressure will follow Mon and persist thru Tue. Low pressure systems will periodically affect the area Wed thru Fri with unsettled weather conditions at times. Another cold front will drop through the area overnight into Monday, bringing an increase in clouds overnight into Monday with cooler temperatures for Monday. Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 50s with highs Monday near 70, give or take a degree or two.
738 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Weak cold front will push across the area and just offshore late tonight or early Mon before stalling. High pressure will follow Mon and persist thru Tue. Low pressure systems will periodically affect the area Wed thru Fri with unsettled weather conditions at times. Another cold front will drop through the area overnight into Monday, bringing an increase in clouds overnight into Monday with cooler temperatures for Monday. Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 50s with highs Monday near 70, give or take a degree or two.
The upper level pattern will continue to be slow moving/blocky with a cold upper low sitting over the Great Lakes region and a second low lingering over the intermountain west. Northwest flow/slight ridging is expected over the Northern Plains.
High pressure will follow for the latter half of the week, bringing a warming and drying trend.
Chances will continue to be highest north of Pittsburgh and across the ridges. However, portions of NW PA and across the Laurel Highlands and Ridges will see temperatures cold enough to produce frost, and freezing temperatures in a few zones. Some light snow should mix in Monday morning across portions of the area, continuing through the day across the highest elevations.
634 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Satellite imagery shows a diurnal cumulus field across the region with an upper level low parked over the Minnesota/Canada border, leading to northwesterly flow across the region. For the overnight hours, in response to a broad area of low pressure developing off to our west, winds will become calm as they switch directions to become east- southeasterly. This will be occurring as the low pressure of to our west strengthens, which acts to increase our surface pressure gradient across the region. Wind gusts into the upper teens to mid 20s are expected, strongest across south-central SD, but on the plus side this will bring warmer temperatures leading to highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. SW Minnesota unfortunately will be left on the cooler side with highs in the lower to mid 50s.
Sharper low-level troffing will drop s across eastern Lake Superior overnight, and this may aid the development of a few -shsn late tonight to the e of Munising. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over western Ontario which will slowly meander around and then finally end up over the lower Great Lakes by 00z Thu. Diurnal nature to showers will continue into Mon night and then it finally dries out as the upper low moves to the east. Some drying in the low levels under weak high pressure should result in VFR conditions at all terminals. As high pressure begins to build over Lake Superior this week, the wind will stay below 20 knots through Fri.
614 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 (The rest of this afternoon through tonight) Mostly sunny skies this afternoon has lead to a decent warmup across NE OK with temperatures climbing into the lower 60s.
An upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest tonight into Monday morning for continued rain showers.
With sfc flow becoming light/var, temps in the upper 40s/lower 50s will fall closer to dew pt trends currently in the lower/mid 30s.
A closed low pressure system is forecast to quickly move into the region tonight and model guidance agree that precipitation will focus in north-central Idaho during Monday morning. As the low pressure system moves southeast, impacts from snow are also expected in Lemhi County and southwest Montana. There is enough instability being forecast ahead of the cold front on Monday for the Butte/Blackfoot Region to have thunderstorms before rain changes to snow.
938 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Upper-level trough extending from the Gulf of Mexico northward into the ArkLaTex that brought light rain to parts of the region earlier this evening continues to move east. High pressure across Arkansas and Missouri to maintain light northeast winds supportive of continued cool conditions overnight. Looking ahead to Monday, expect mostly cloudy to overcast skies once again but dry conditions as high pressure to our NE will be the dominant feature.
519 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Weak ridging today has brought a fine Spring afternoon, with nearly clear skies and near normal temperatures, except where snow cover remains persistent. The next trough is approaching from the PacNW, and will spread high clouds into the region overnight.
Deep layered moisture is expected to increase a bit through the overnight period and the low level inhibition is expected to weaken. Expect overnight lows to fall broadly in the lower to mid 70s due to some locations seeing some radiational cooling potential.
952 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Key Messages: - Shower Chances Continue Into New Work Week - Slightly Below Seasonable Temperatures - Active Pattern Continues Through Midweek, Latter Half of the Week and Into the Weekend Showery Start To New Work Week: Upper level pattern stagnates for the first half of the new work week as the upper level low, near the Minnesota arrowhead on water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon, is expected to linger. A zonal quasi-inverted low level lee trough will enhance precipitation associated with this low through the night Monday, resulting in a narrow rain band situated southwest of the forecast area in central Iowa.
Conditions today and this week governed by cool, cyclonic flow around a broad upper low system stalled out over the Great Lakes. The center of the low resides over northern Minnesota and only gradually eases southeastward over the next few days as multiple lobes of PV rotate around the low and reinforce the longwave troughing pattern.
507 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 A trof will approach tonight into Monday, then slowly cross the region through mid week.
We're currently tracking rain showers and isolated thunderstorms in Malheur and Owyhee Counties, associated with a weak short wave trough there. The trough, showers, and thunderstorms were weakening as the sun sets so we expect no impacts. Upper low just west of vancouver Island this evening is forecast to track through WA overnight, then into our CWA Monday, bringing more showers into our Idaho zones and Baker County in Oregon.
456 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2023 20Z upper level analysis has large closed low just north of Minnesota, and weak ridge over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure resides across the central CONUS with winds generally light. Upper ridge over the Rockies will slowly slide east tonight into Monday with quiet weather anticipated.
931 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 A rain shield of light precipitation continues over the coastal waters this evening in response to an area of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico.
625 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 A trof will approach tonight into Monday, then slowly cross the region through mid week.
638 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) A cold front has moved through our CWA bringing northeasterly winds. Cooler, drier air is moving in. Temperatures are 15 to 20 degrees cooler and dewpoints are five to ten degrees lower than 24 hours ago. In the low levels high pressure will move slowly across from west to east north of Texas.
At the surface, high pressure will build in from the west today but quickly move offshore by early Tuesday.
In these same spots, temps fell into the low-mid 20s. Tonight, the trough drops through the eastern UP, allowing northeasterly flow to spread showers westward into Marquette County. The south and east may be able to break out into the low 40s. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over western Ontario which will slowly meander around and then finally end up over the lower Great Lakes by 00z Thu. Diurnal nature to showers will continue into Mon night and then it finally dries out as the upper low moves to the east. Drying in the low levels under weak high pressure should result in VFR conditions at all terminals through 00Z Tue. As high pressure begins to build over Lake Superior this week, the wind will stay below 20 knots through Fri.
Winds throughout the short term will start out from a southerly direction today, shifting to the southeast tonight as an area of low pressure intensifies southwest of the area. Winds then shift to more of an easterly direction tomorrow as this area of low pressure slides eastward. Lows tonight are anticipated to dip into the low 40s with low 50s for highs tomorrow.
1139 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 A rain shield of light precipitation continues over the coastal waters this evening in response to an area of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico. The result will be somewhat cooler temperatures, as well as somewhat dry conditions in the low levels. Guidance still shows the high pressure moving off to the east on Tuesday. This will allow a warm front to gradually move north through the forecast area as winds become more southerly by late in the day into the night. Another southern stream short wave disturbance will meet up with the warm front by Tuesday night. Lift provided by upper level divergence from the short wave and low level convergence along the warm front, should be enough to produce showers and a few thunderstorms.
The dry weather will continue Monday with slightly warmer conditions, but rain chances will return to the area Tuesday, continuing intermittently through the remainder of the week.
337 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 A nearly stationary upper level low pressure system will remain over the region through midweek, bringing chilly conditions and scattered showers. After brief high pressure and drier conditions towards the end of the week, another upper level disturbance will bring showers back into the region this weekend. Upper level low pressure system will remain over the region through the period. A weak perturbations circles the upper low enters our area this afternoon and evening with more scattered showers. Can't rule out a few snow flakes across the higher elevations of the Catskills, but little to no accumulations are expected. Another weak wave wraps around the upper low on Tuesday, bringing increased shower chances once again during the afternoon. A deep upper level trough centered over southeast Ontario will slowly weaken and lift northeast.
Quite cool today with mid afternoon temps only in the 40s and dewpoints in the lower 20s. With high pressure building into the area skies should become clear to partly cloudy. With a dry airmass in place and winds becoming light and variable the stage is set for a chilly night with frost/freezing temperatures. Key messages: 1) Continued below normal temperatures 2) Possible freezing temperatures north on Tuesday night 3) Potential for widespread rain late in the week Details: Monday night and Tuesday: A reinforcing cold front arrives along with an upper level disturbance, rotating around a large upper low centered in the Great Lakes region. Tuesday night: High pressure again settles into the area with another potential for freezing temps mainly in our northern counties (along and north of Hwy 30).
354 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 A trough of low pressure will approach today from the west, then slowly cross the region through mid week.
406 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 A broad upper level trough of low pressure centered over the Great Lakes will be the dominant weather feature across the Northeast through much of the week.
1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023 Upper-level trough extending from the Gulf of Mexico northward into the ArkLaTex that brought light rain to parts of the region earlier this evening continues to move east. High pressure across Arkansas and Missouri to maintain light northeast winds supportive of continued cool conditions overnight. Looking ahead to Monday, expect mostly cloudy to overcast skies once again but dry conditions as high pressure to our NE will be the dominant feature.
(Today through Tuesday) Upper low remains over the Great Lakes this morning, with a northern stream trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
957 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Weak ridging today has brought a fine Spring afternoon, with nearly clear skies and near normal temperatures, except where snow cover remains persistent. The next trough is approaching from the PacNW, and will spread high clouds into the region overnight. The main trough moves southeast from Idaho into northern Utah on Monday, bringing increasing chances for rain and snow showers tonight and Tuesday. Overall snow accumulations for the higher elevations Tuesday would be roughly around 6 inches.
The CWA will be sandwiched between an upper low/trof over the Great Lakes, and system moving southeast through the intermountain region.
300 AM MDT Mon Apr 24 2023 A compact low pressure is seen across central Washington in GOES Water Vapor imagery early this morning and is forecast to quickly move southeastward into southern ID by tonight. Ensemble model guidance is locked into a high amplitude blocking pattern developing across the western US.
A cold front passage this afternoon and evening will bring gusty northwest winds to northern and central Nevada and some showers to northeastern Elko County.
1144 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 A trough maintains its position over the Great Lakes with a ridge over western parts of the CONUS. After a record setting cold start to the day, temperatures rebounded into the lower 60s. Light winds helped make the sunshine feel even warmer.
1202 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front has pushed south of West Central Texas early this morning, with the severe threat shifting south of the area. Expect highs this afternoon in the low to mid 50s for most locations.
Looking aloft, a weak mid-level ridge continues to push through the area bringing the return of warmer air aloft along with light and variable winds at the surface. Mid-level cloud cover will begin to set in from the south as a warm front stalls over the central portions of Nebraska and southeastern Iowa.
Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing an upper level trough over the upper midwest that is forecast to slowly rotate through the Great Lakes region through the rest of the week. Despite the higher rain chances, QPFs through the next three days will are generally less than an inch, with the lowest totals near the west coast where the sea breeze will mostly clear out the rain a bit earlier each afternoon.
119 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 An expansive upper level trough of low pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the Northeast through much of this week.
110 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 (06Z TAFS) High pressure will build from the northwest to the north this period.
Breezy conditions are expected behind the reinforcing cold front (currently draped over the I-65 corridor).
Fast, zonal flow will predominate at the mid-levels with decreased influence from passing vorticity maxima rounding the base of the Great Lakes upper low. The aforementioned part of the forecast is key to having a near excellent radiational cooling scenario tonight and ultimately achieve below freezing temperatures since winds are anticipated to go light and variable shortly after sunset. That being said, the official forecast reflects below freezing lows (30-32) for a good part of the area with the usual cold spots probably falling to the upper 20s. The upper level pattern around midweek starts out with a split-flow regime across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys but transitions into a western CONUS ridge / eastern CONUS trough setup by the weekend.
(Today and tonight) Expect another cloudy and cool day across West Central Texas today, although a bit warmer than what we saw yesterday. Extensive cloud cover will help to keep temperatures from getting much higher than the low to mid 60 at most locations. Cloudy conditions will continue overnight, with low temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
Snow amounts will be minor and confined to the higher elevations. It will leave enough moisture in place for scattered convection to develop over the higher terrain this afternoon. The next low pressure will approach from the northwest later today. In response to this low large-scale lift should increase across the northern CWA. As the low tracks to the southeast lift spreads across the rest of the forecast area so expect showers and storms to follow suit. The low pressure center will pass overhead tomorrow so precipitation becomes more widespread.
1222 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) Well-below normal temperatures in wake of yesterday's cold front will likely yield some record low maxes today as temps are still locked into the 40s anywhere east of the Davis Foothills. Temperatures are in the low-mid 40s over the Permian Basin with Midland locked into 43F at this hour. Actually had to adjust highs down 2-3 degrees areawide with this forecast package, despite the last forecast already forecasting a new record cold high in the low-50s. The low hanging fruit from '31 will fall gracefully under the guide of blanket overcast and downright cold air settled in place. Lows will be closer to normal heading into Tuesday AM with 40s and 50s areawide with a much warmer day anticipated on Tuesday afternoon.
(Today through Tuesday Night ) Main H500 cyclone continues to rotate across the Great Lakes through the short term period providing persistent W-NW flow across the region. Sfc ridging nearly overhead will begin to shift northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. For today, mainly dry conditions are expected with highs topping out several degrees warmer than yesterday.
A thin and emaciated land breeze is noted across the distant Straits of Florida on the lowest tilts of the KBYX radar.
The upper level pattern will continue to be slow moving/blocky with a cold upper low sitting over the Great Lakes region and a second low lingering over the intermountain west. Northwest flow/slight ridging is expected over the Northern Plains. Generally northwest flow aloft transitioning to a trough mid week and continuing through the weekend.
1041 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2023 20Z upper level analysis has large closed low just north of Minnesota, and weak ridge over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure resides across the central CONUS with winds generally light. Upper ridge over the Rockies will slowly slide east tonight into Monday with quiet weather anticipated. Monday night into Tuesday, a strong upper low will slide under the ridge across the Northern Plains, and bring some light precip chances to mainly western portions of the forecast area late Monday night into Tuesday. Temps will be cool enough in the higher elevations of the Black Hills for an inch or two of snow.
Temperatures will remain below normal, mainly in the lower to middle 40s. Highs on Tuesday should remain mostly in the lower to middle 40s.