Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently - A midlatitude cyclone is pushing its way eastward through the eastern United States this evening. This has in effect pushed what feels like a weak cold front across the Keys. Dry air will continue to flood in aloft under the influence of the descending branch of the midlatitude trough. Expect overnight lows to settle broadly in the lower 70s with dew points possibly falling a degree or two further into mid 60s. A weak high pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will sustain light northwest to northerly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
(Tonight) With the cold front well to our east, skies have cleared steadily through the afternoon and evening yielding a warm, albeit windy evening. Temperatures were able to make it into the high 70s however post frontal winds remained elevated keeping today in the warm category as opposed to hot.
627 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Tonight) Westerly flow will allow surface based ridging from the central Plains to build eastward into the mid TN Valley tonight behind the departing frontal boundary.
704 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Episodic rain showers will continue with the passage of upper- level low pressure and a cold front.
Basically lows will range from the low 50s to near 60.
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 630 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (This evening through Saturday) A dominant mid level ridge will continue to build in from the west in the short/near term, providing unseasonably warm weather to the region through Saturday.
The cold front was south of the area with a cool dry airmass settling in. /22/ As the trough axis swings to the east through the weekend, low level ridge axis will slowly build to the east.
The 0Z surface analysis shows the cold front draped from the Wiregrass Region into Southern GA and is serving as a boundary between moist air to the SE and drier air to the NW. A cold front will cross the region this evening, followed by a drier air mass this weekend.
Key Messages: * After a HOT day today, the weekend will be a noticably cooler (but not cold).
(Now through Saturday) Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through the period as an upper-level longwave trough pushes eastward into the western Atlantic. In its wake, high pressure builds in, allowing for a much drier airmass to advect into the region (dew points dropping into the 40s). With clear skies, drier air, and lighter winds tonight, efficient radiational cooling will allow for lows to drop into the low to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to low 60s closer to the coast. Highs tomorrow will rise into the low to mid 80s.
(Today through Sunday) Pleasant and seasonable weather is expected this weekend across South FL as surface and upper level high pressure builds in and strengthens across the Gulf. High temps will be a touch cooler around the lake with mid 80s expected, however it'll again be in the upper 80s across the east coast metro and far southern peninsula.
Surface analysis depicts complex low pressure over the Northeastern United States, with a cold front extending southward to the northern Gulf Coast, and weak high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, a deep trough extends southward from the Northeast into the western Atlantic, with a dry airmass across our region in the wake of this departing trough. Temps will be near to slightly below normal, with lows in the lower-mid 70s and highs in the lower-mid 80s.
A cold front associated with the Canadian low is draped across SD, with cool high pressure following behind. The upper ridge axis will slide over the Rockies this weekend, keeping our weather dry. Today will be noticeably cooler, but still mild, with highs in the 60s. Warmer air will advect into the region Sunday and bump highs back near 70.
1229 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected to persist across the state through Saturday as H500 ridging builds over the region from the SW. By tomorrow night, a sfc cold front will progress south across the state. Highs on Sunday will be a bit cooler, but still above seasonal average.
336 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 A developing coastal low pressure system as well as a cold front moving in from the west has brought wet conditions to the region today and tonight.
1253 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 (Tonight) With the cold front well to our east, skies have cleared steadily through the afternoon and evening yielding a warm, albeit windy evening. Temperatures were able to make it into the high 70s however post frontal winds remained elevated keeping today in the warm category as opposed to hot.
1226 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 As of 915 PM CDT, temperatures are approaching the lower 60s under clear skies and calm winds. This, in combination with dew points in the lower 50s, will allow radiational cooling for temperature minimums in the low-to-mid 50s. It is just slightly warmer in the parishes all around 90 degrees. High pressure will keep to our NE this weekend and a warmer trend will follow mainly for lows going forward as southerly winds bring the dew points back up with some daybreak light fog or mist possible. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s for many and then lows overnight will be warmer behind the wind shift back to southerly.
These will serve to dampen potential heating somewhat, but this should be offset by warming in the lower atmosphere leading to another day with high temperatures in the 80s across the area.
The expanding cirrostratus canopy on Sunday will help to knock highs down to between 85 and 90 degrees with a few readings in the lower 90s across the Big Country areas.
Temperatures will continue to drop into the lower 50s over the next few hours. Highs will once again be unseasonably warm this afternoon with highs in the lower 90s. Overall, quiet weather will continue given the ridge just off to the west.
As mentioned above, clouds will increase some during the predawn hours, mainly north as a low pressure system approaches. An upper level short wave will rotate through the larger upper trough across the eastern USA today. Cold advection will keep some gusty winds around this evening, then winds will diminish as the low pressure system continues to move east.
With dry air mixing down today, I ran on the lower side of guidance for dewpoints. High pressure will set up over the eastern CONUS by the end of the period as the low retreats quickly to the northeast.
Sunday will be much cooler owing to the effects of the dry fropa.
149 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Conditions will turn windy and cooler over the weekend with frequent showers downwind of Lake Erie.
Key Messages -Winds will be gusty at times into the evening, mainly west of the Red River Valley -More cloud cover is anticipated north of a line from Langdon to Hillsboro to Fergus Falls on Saturday, with a few showers also possible As of mid afternoon, the wind shift line (trough/warm front) had reached a Devils Lake to Valley City line, where winds were turning to the west, followed by the northwest. After the brief 500mb ridging Saturday, the flow turns more zonal on Sunday.
136 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Conditions will turn windy and cooler over the weekend with frequent showers downwind of Lake Erie.
Expect much of the same tomorrow with the added fun of high pressure ridging overtop the area from the southwest. These above-average October days have been brought on by the same mechanism which caused the record-heat summer: high pressure building overtop an area already entrenched in a dry, continental airmass. By Sunday, high pressure skirts off to the east, turning low level winds to the south and thus resuming a lower level moisture transfer into southeast TX and southwest LA.
1126 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) Synoptically, upper level troughing continues to exit to the east today while upper level ridging moves towards the area. While we did have some fog issues this morning, with the drier and slightly cooler air for tomorrow morning we don't look to have as much of an issue.
143 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Low pressure and associated cold front pulls away from the area tonight. Another cold front will sweep southeastward across our area later Saturday through Saturday night, followed by a residual trough on Sunday morning.
The flow will be from the NNE taking any showers out over the lake, and ridging will be building in fairly quickly which will really bring inversion heights down, even with lake modified air.
106 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Rain shower chances will be generally be focus along the ridges and downstream of Lake Erie through late Saturday morning.
123 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Today looks pleasant with above average temperatures as the flattened ridge holds on a little bit longer.
Persistent cloud cover over the southern two thirds of the forecast area will keep tonight's lows up in the upper 50s and 60s, while northern Oklahoma drops into the low to mid 50s under clearing skies.
Overview: The latest water vapor satellite imagery/heights/lightning show a 500mb trough moving into the East Coast and a ridge over the Four Corners region. In-between, northwest flow extends from the High Plains through the Mississippi River Valley to the southeast U.
Winds dropped sharply after sunset just as the high resolution models suggested. These will become southerly early to mid morning ahead of the southeastward-moving cold front, which will bring northwest gusts to around 35-40 (locally higher) mph during the late morning through early evening time frame -- and this is not surprising given the howling winds aloft (over 130kt at 250mb per the 00z Saturday ILX raob!).
Heading into Sunday, high pressure will begin to build back in, providing drier weather the next few days. Cannot rule out some patchy frost, however the lowest temperatures are expected to stay in the upper 30s. Central Ohio and into the Scioto Valley region will likely stay a little warmer in the 40s with more cloud cover. High pressure builds in from the northwest on Sunday. Northerly flow east of the high brings below average temperatures under fair weather skies. The high moves directly overhead on Sunday night leading to calm winds and clear skies.
(Saturday through Sunday) Upper-air analysis this morning features a large trough across the eastern CONUS with ridging across portions of the southwest CONUS that will somewhat move further into our area this afternoon. This storm has been hard to track after it makes landfall as a trough begins to dig into the Pacific Northwest and influences what happens with Norma.
Warmer conditions expected tonight with the front moving through the area.
High pressure builds in for tonight and Sunday, bringing lighter winds and cooler air. Clipper low pressure was located over northern MN early this morning, and will dive southeast into northern IN this afternoon. Showers will remain northeast of the low track into the southern Great Lakes, so the main impact on our weather will be gusty northwest winds in a tight MSLP gradient on the back side of the low. Highs to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with a north/south gradient behind the front from the upper 60s to mid 70s. High pressure settles in from the northwest Saturday night and Sunday, bringing lighter winds and cooler air.
An upper trough will move quickly from northeast Minnesota to southern Wisconsin today, and produce frontogenetic forcing from northwest to southeast Wisconsin.
310 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 A weak dry cold front will move through the PAH forecast area this morning into early this afternoon.
1146 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023 High pressure will control the weather this weekend. A weak wave begins to break down the ridge this weekend, but there will be very limited moisture for any precipitation. A deep, negatively tilted Pacific trough is progged to dig southward along the Western U.
1246 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) The cold front is difficult to pick out this afternoon, but based on surface theta e contours, it is likely still on our northern border this afternoon, though drier air has moved across much of our forecast area with westerly winds in the lowest levels. This evening expect moisture to quickly return keeping us from having cooler temperatures, and also likely bringing another night of fog.
An area of low pressure to our north will be the main impacting feature in the near term. The low itself will sink across Minnesota tonight and into Ohio by the end of the day Saturday. The area of high pressure looks to shift over far eastern SD 03-12Z Sunday, with dry weather remaining in place. The potential for any clouds over 40 percent this period will be Saturday afternoon over our far northeastern counties, closer to a trough moving through the northwesterly flow. Ensembles and deterministic models agree on a flattened ridge pattern over much of the central/western CONUS as zonal flow continues over Canada Sunday morning.
(Today and tonight) Weak high pressure will build into the area in the wake of the cold front today. Highs will generally range from the mid 70s across the far northeast to the low to mid 80s elsewhere.
The first will be a weak cold front that is starting to push through right now. This front will not do much except bring some slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday morning with most of us from the mid 50's up north to the mid 60's down south.
1150 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance Northwest flow will prevail over the weekend with the region sandwiched between an upper level trough over the eastern U. and ridging over the central and western U. The passage of a cold front will shift gusty winds around from the southwest to the northwest midday Saturday, but any advection of colder air should lag behind until Saturday night. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build southeast from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Sunday night. That will be followed by much cooler readings in the upper 60s to near 70 on Sunday.
As the high builds farther south and east, the gradient relaxes and winds will diminish the remainder of the afternoon. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in upper 50s to low 60s east to the low to mid 60s from the James Valley and points west.
(Today and tonight) Cirrus bands associated with the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Norma will continue to advect northeastward over northern Mexico and into the region throughout the next 24 hours as the mid/upper-level ridge currently centered over northern Mexico continues to dampen in amplitude. Therefore, geopotential heights will steadily fall as the mean troughing to the west attenuates the mid/upper-level ridge entirely. Cross-barrier flow associated with flattening ridge is expected to spawn a lee cyclone near the Raton Mesa this afternoon, resulting in a slight uptick in southerly winds until the cessation of vertical mixing occurs at dusk. Another mild night is in store as the high-altitude cirrus shield lingers overhead.
244 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 A developing coastal low pressure system as well as a cold front moving in from the west has brought wet and breezy conditions to the region today.
1027 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (This evening through Saturday) A dominant mid level ridge will continue to build in from the west in the short/near term, providing unseasonably warm weather to the region through Saturday.
443 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Conditions will turn windy and cooler over the weekend with frequent showers downwind of Lake Erie.
/ISSUED 516 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023/ Currently, an upper-level ridge dominates the Western U. S as high pressure slowly builds in throughout the day. A cold front will continue to move southward across the state today, gradually building in cooler air for the weekend.
(Today through Sunday) Upper trough currently over the Appalachians with upper ridging over the Rockies. The upper trough will continue to move offshore, while the ridge over the Rockies moves into the Mississippi River Valley by Sunday evening.
This weekend features quiet weather with a gradual cooling trend as the upper ridge weakens and slides southeastward. Plentiful high clouds streaming in from Hurricane Norma's outflow takes today's highs a degree or cooler than yesterday. As thickness falls on Sunday with the departing ridge, high temps fall a few degrees more into the mid 80s.
Breezy conditions are expected by later this afternoon and will become confined to the highest peaks overnight. Today Currently early this morning, the region is in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft and at the surface with troughing and a frontal boundary having progressed to the east. During the day, the flow will become more zonal aloft with an area of low pressure over Minnesota expected to move just to our north by the evening. Tonight By the evening hours, the aforementioned low pressure system is expected to progress into West Virginia. The highest peaks of the mountains, i.
Rain moves out Saturday evening as a cold front scours out any remaining low-level moisture. 25 inches with the highest amounts near and southwest of a Grand Rapids to Lansing line where a bit of FGEN is expected to provide a bit of a boost to rainfall. Dry conditions then expected for the rest of Sunday night with some clearing as high pressure approaches the region, though clouds will get a lake effect boost, mainly near the lakeshore, as 850 mb temps fall just below zero in NNW flow.
(Today through Sunday) Another unseasonably warm day is forecast today, although not as warm as Saturday given increasing high clouds and decreasing heights with the ridge flattening.
Low pressure will move through the waters Saturday night into Sunday with some rain, but overall, calmer winds and seas.
609 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 (Today and tonight) Cirrus bands associated with the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Norma will continue to advect northeastward over northern Mexico and into the region throughout the next 24 hours as the mid/upper-level ridge currently centered over northern Mexico continues to dampen in amplitude. Therefore, geopotential heights will steadily fall as the mean troughing to the west attenuates the mid/upper-level ridge entirely. Cross-barrier flow associated with flattening ridge is expected to spawn a lee cyclone near the Raton Mesa this afternoon, resulting in a slight uptick in southerly winds until the cessation of vertical mixing occurs at dusk. Another mild night is in store as the high-altitude cirrus shield lingers overhead.
Sunday, high pressure will promote clearer skies, lighter winds, and drier conditions.
403 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Key Message: 1) Slightly cooler today, though temperatures will still be well above seasonal averages. Upper ridge over Colorado will flatten somewhat today, as weak s/w energy moves through the central Rockies. Combination of lower heights and cooler mid-levels, plus a weak easterly surface gradient, will lead to max temps some 5-10 degf cooler than yesterday on the plains.
(Now through Sunday) Northwesterly flow aloft this morning will become mostly zonal through the remainder of the weekend as the upper trough continues to lift northeast away from the region. Northeasterly surface winds this morning in the wake of a cold front will become light and variable through the remainder of the weekend as weak high pressure settles across the area. A much drier airmass will advect into the region today with dew points dropping into the low/mid 40s away from the coast, resulting in minimum afternoon relative humidity values ranging from 20-25 percent. High temperatures over the weekend will reach the low to mid 80s, with the exception of the upper 70s at the beaches.
Dewpoints are currently in the mid 40s to mid 50s, but as a dry cold front moves across the area today and daytime heating/mixing kicks in, dewpoints will mix out into the low/mid 40s. Sunday will be much cooler owing to the effects of the dry fropa.
626 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 (Today through Sunday) Upper trough currently over the Appalachians with upper ridging over the Rockies. The upper trough will continue to move offshore, while the ridge over the Rockies moves into the Mississippi River Valley by Sunday evening.
The ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies today. A cold front is expected to make its way across the region on Sunday as a broad trough of low pressure moves into the western United States. This front will bring cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation.
Above normal (near record) temperatures continue today and tomorrow as the resident ridge begins to move east.
The surface pressure gradient will be strongest later this afternoon which should produce a few hours of wind gusts up to 25 mph in the lower elevations and up to 35 mph in the higher elevations. Breezy conditions are expected by later this afternoon and will become confined to the highest peaks overnight. Today Currently early this morning, the region is in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft and at the surface with troughing and a frontal boundary having progressed to the east. During the day, the flow will become more zonal aloft with an area of low pressure over Minnesota expected to move just to our north by the evening. Tonight By the evening hours, the aforementioned low pressure system is expected to progress into West Virginia. The highest peaks of the mountains, i.
Only minor adjustments to this morning lows (much cooler non-metro areas) and to adjust high cloud cover upward just a notch per latest GOES satellite imagery. The expanding cirrostratus canopy on Sunday will help to knock highs down to between 85 and 90 degrees with a few readings in the lower 90s across the Big Country areas.
Some of the higher elevation areas could see snowfall, but impacts will be limited given the light amounts. This H5 area of low pressure is anticipated to bring increased southwesterly flow over the region today. Ahead of the low, we will have an area large scale ascent and increased cloud cover.
418 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Key Messages: * Cooler this weekend, but still above normal with highs mainly in the 70s today and then mid 60s to lower 70s on Sunday.
A weak dry cold front will move through the PAH forecast area this morning into early this afternoon.
229 AM PDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Cooler temperatures this weekend with light rain and isolated thunderstorm chances late Saturday into Sunday.
Low level ridging trends further eastward by Sunday allowing for a more prevalent s/se flow off the Gulf to set up.
Key Messages: * Cooler this weekend, but still above normal with highs mainly in the 70s today and then mid 60s to lower 70s on Sunday.
659 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 (Today through Sunday) Pleasant and seasonable weather is expected this weekend across South FL as surface and upper level high pressure builds in and strengthens across the Gulf. High temps will be a touch cooler around the lake with mid 80s expected, however it'll again be in the upper 80s across the east coast metro and far southern peninsula.
Saturday will be cool with increasing cloud cover before an approaching cold front brings rain Sunday.
621 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 (Saturday through Sunday) Upper-air analysis this morning features a large trough across the eastern CONUS with ridging across portions of the southwest CONUS that will somewhat move further into our area this afternoon. This storm has been hard to track after it makes landfall as a trough begins to dig into the Pacific Northwest and influences what happens with Norma.
555 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 (Today and tonight) Weak high pressure will build into the area in the wake of the cold front today. Highs will generally range from the mid 70s across the far northeast to the low to mid 80s elsewhere.
Scattered showers associated with positive vorticity advection are expected to continue across the area, with the highest concentration near to just south of I96 this afternoon where mid- level frontogenetical banding provides a boost to overall forcing and low-level moisture will be greater. The flow will be from the NNE taking any showers out over the lake, and ridging will be building in fairly quickly which will really bring inversion heights down, even with lake modified air.