Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The broad midlevel trough continues to dive southeast into the Great Basin, pumping ample moisture into the state. The trough will gradually shift east during the night tonight, right along the WY/CO border. The good news is that models are still optimistic in building a ridge across the Rockies behind this system, both deflecting the active pattern into Canada, and allowing temperatures to moderate quickly late week into the weekend. Gusty north wind 15-30kts increases mid-late morning Tuesday at KCOD and KWRL, which will begin to dry the lower atmosphere and conditions begin a climb to VFR by early afternoon.
Looking at the big picture, an upper level ridge will build over the Florida Peninsula today and persist through the week while a mid-level low over the Western U.
An upper level low over northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming will continue to move east and will move out onto the Plains of northwest Nebraska and southwest South Dakota by late this afternoon. As this low moves onto the Plains a strong upper level jet will move across the Panhandles.
After midweek, cooler conditions are expected for several days along with scattered showers, most numerous in north Mississippi.
1235 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023 Warm front is lifting to the N this evening, currently situated into N MS & to the SE. Water vapor/RAP analysis indicates subtle mid-level ridging over the region while strong cold core & longwave trough digging into the Intermountain W & Pacific states. /DC/ Tonight and Tuesday: A warm front will move northward this evening into tonight and our area will be well within a large warm sector associated with a low pressure system centered over the Rockies. Additionally, an upper ridge builds in overnight. Moisture advection along with the ridge axis and mid to upper level jet to the west should keep some clouds around on Tuesday.
High pressure will build into the area Tuesday through Wednesday.
Temps are slowly rising this morning as a warm front bisecting the area continues to push northward, with dewpoints rising into the 60s south of the front. Warm front will zoom north of the area later this morning, with a windy near-record warm day on tap as highs reach the upper 70s on the Plateau and low to mid 80s elsewhere. Very powerful upper level system is expected to force a cold front through the midstate Wednesday afternoon and evening, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms breaking out along the boundary.
Another hot day with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Cooler tonight, with lows in the 40s to mid 50s.
For the mountains, the highest amounts will remain near Rabbit Ears Pass where ongoing snowfall will range from 8-16 inches and with wind gusts up to 55 mph, travel will likely remain difficult. Wednesday will start off on a cold note with the upper level trough and cold core aloft across the forecast area. Enough orographics will be around to have light snow showers ongoing at the start of this period in the high country.
Models continue to struggle deciding if we will see scattered showers from roughly 10-15z or if that will not amount to much and the threat for freezing precipitation will be a little later, roughly from about 13z to 18z and mainly in the form of freezing drizzle.
703 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 Showers are likely today along a warm front lifting toward Lake Erie. Potent low pressure and a cold front will provide the focus for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.
Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast while the sea breeze keeps coastal areas in the lower to middle 80s. Looking at the big picture, an upper level ridge will build over the Florida Peninsula today and persist through the week while a mid-level low over the Western U.
There is a chance for strong storms Wednesday evening and night with an approaching cold front. The ridge will shift east tonight allowing for progression of the warm front lifting north late tonight. Steep mid- level lapse rates and increasing forcing for ascent favor a squall line along an advancing cold front from the Midwest during the afternoon to wrn PA overnight. An overnight threat with the advancing squall line/cold front may persist long enough to affect at least ern OH if not wrn PA, but unfavorable timing may limit the storms' impacts/intensity.
Western Nevada valleys will settle into the lower 20s to start our Tuesday, while those in Sierra communities will really feel the chill in single digits and teens. Speaking of chills, wind chill values across the area will have lower valleys feeling temperatures in the low teens. I'm not sure what we did to upset winter, but let's not try it again, shall we? Gusty ridges will see 50 mph this afternoon before the winds begin to relax this evening.
502 AM MDT Tue Apr 4 2023 Deep upper trough and associated compact upper low and sfc reflection continues to move ENE into the region this morning, with a potent FGEN band in place across southwest to central SD. After continued below normal conds Thurs, much warmer temps will finally arrive this weekend as Pac westerly flow develops via large scale western CONUS ridging.
This is mainly near and northeast of a warm front advancing northward through the area. Temperatures will zoom into the lower to middle 80s this afternoon, with dew points in the middle to upper 60s.
Moist northwest flow will persist today on the backside of an upper trough. However, a warm front will approach the area later tonight and could bring a chance of precipitation over the marine waters and coastal counties. The warm front will inch closer towards the area Wednesday with the best chance for measurable precipitation over the marine waters, coastal mountains, north of the Umpqua Divide and Cascades. However there's good agreement the bulk of the precipitation should remain offshore with weak ridging remaining over the area.
And NOHRSC 1km sfc snow depth still shows 1-3 inches snow in northeastern Santa Clara county mtns/hills and 6-10 inches snow across the high mountains of interior Monterey county and southern San Benito county. Coldest spots north to south this morning vary from 28 to 32 including on the high peaks of the North Bay, the East Bay, the Santa Cruz Mountains and in interior valley locations.
542 AM MDT Tue Apr 4 2023 At 09Z/Tues, the anomalously deep and cold low pressure system was centered over the UT/CO/WY triple point. Meanwhile, the cold front associated with the system had reached the Continental Divide as earlier runs had predicted. Ahead of the mid-level trough, a broad swath of showers encompassed the region along and east of a KBDG to KGJT to 30W KDWX line. In contrast however, held on the warning for the eastern Uinta Mountains as a shift in flow to the north at ridge level should yield persistent orographic forcing today.
606 AM MDT Tue Apr 4 2023 Forecast focus through midweek will be on the strong upper low lifting from the central Rockies, through the northern plains and into western Ontario. Temperatures will remain below normal for a few days then warm to above normal by the weekend as an upper ridge build over the region.
413 AM MDT Tue Apr 4 2023 At 09Z/Tues, the anomalously deep and cold low pressure system was centered over the UT/CO/WY triple point. Meanwhile, the cold front associated with the system had reached the Continental Divide as earlier runs had predicted. Ahead of the mid-level trough, a broad swath of showers encompassed the region along and east of a KBDG to KGJT to 30W KDWX line. In contrast however, held on the warning for the eastern Uinta Mountains as a shift in flow to the north at ridge level should yield persistent orographic forcing today.
627 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 An anomalous upper level ridge will remain over the east coast today into early Wednesday.
732 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Another hot afternoon across South Florida for today as high pressure begins to build across the region once again.
Warm front extended from central MO to central IL with temps well in the 60s and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s south of the front. Be Weather Aware! Today and tonight: Volatile and dangerous day ahead with an intense cyclone tracking from CO to se MN. The warm front will lift northward across the cwa which will be key to the location of the strongest tornadoes. Afternoon temps will range from the lower 60s along Hwy 20 to the lower to mid 80s in our southern counties.
- Rain and thunderstorms tonight - A northward moving warm front will combine with a vigorous llj to bring rain and convection tonight. Once the warm front moves north it is questionable whether additional convection will develop during the early morning hours Wednesday. The 00Z HREF suggests the vast majority of convection will occur near to north of the warm front and this seems reasonable. - Severe wx Wednesday - The best chance for svr wx comes from late morning Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon along and ahead of the approaching cold front. Model trends have slowed down the eastward progression of the cold front somewhat the past 24-48 hrs. A significantly cooler airmass will move in behind that front late this week before temps undergo a gradual moderating trend again for the weekend.
An approaching potent low pressure system currently maturing in the Central Plains will northeast through the day.
655 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night ) Noticeably warmer and more humid airmass returned to the Natural State over the past 24 hours.
A significant EML leaves only the lowest layers saturated. A cold front will work through the CWA today leaving northern areas peaking in the forties while southern cities will manage temps 40-50 degrees *warmer*. Have leaned on guidance with the faster passage of the cold front (RAP/HRRR). Wednesday will be breezy and perceptibly cooler.
735 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 An anomalous upper level ridge will remain over the east coast today into early Wednesday.
The main closed low is moving southeastward into Wyoming with a general trough remaining over the Northern Rockies through Wednesday morning.
Aloft, mid-level high pressure over the southern GoMex will continue to amplify with ridging building northward across the FL peninsula. At the surface, high pressure across the western Atlc will extend a ridge southwestward to across the central FL peninsula.
Cooler air has moved across the area overnight which will lead to a chilly early April day today and a rather cold Wednesday morning. The 11pm/06z surface analysis by WPC placed the cold front from about Clifton to Nogales. Drier air moving in behind the cold front and that is seen in the surface dewpoints this morning with values in the upper single digit to teens post frontal.
942 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 Showers are likely today along a warm front lifting toward Lake Erie. Potent low pressure and a cold front will provide the focus for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.
This will keep mostly dry, northerly flow overhead through today, which will continue to filter in cooler air. The combination of cool air funneling in and less wind overnight, will allow for temperatures to drop this morning, with Valley temperatures near or slightly below freezing, resulting in areas of frost.
The low-level ridge axis extends west across Central Florida, which supports gentle east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys. Once again, temperatures are back in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Beginning this evening, breezes will become moderate to fresh across the Keys as high pressure builds along the eastern Seaboard and Western Atlantic.
946 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 An upper-level ridge will build over the region through Wednesday and support an increasingly warm and humid air mass.
The short term forecast revolves around the low level high pressure currently extending across the western North Atlantic into central Florida. Tonight, this high is expected to continue building across the eastern Seaboard resulting in a freshening of our east to southeast winds.
Upper level ridging will continue to build over Florida with fair and mainly dry conditions expected across the region.
Storms will develop ahead of a cold front and a deep upper level trough and may result in damaging wind, large hail and possibly tornadoes. Cooler conditions will return to the Midsouth after midweek.
1258 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 An anomalous upper level ridge will remain over the east coast today into early Wednesday.
352 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 A warm front will move north of the region tonight. On Wednesday, low pressure lifting from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest along with an associated cold frontal boundary will bring a focus for thunderstorms.
400 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 High pressure will extend across the region into mid week.
17Z observations are showing a stationary front located roughly from Syracuse to Great Bend with strong southwest winds on the south side of the front and has led to widespread blowing dust along and south of roughly the highway 56 corridor. Winds will continue to be breezy during the night and strong cold air advection in the lower levels should allow temperatures to fall into the 20s by daybreak. Wednesday will be seasonably cooler as the main upper trough moves into the central and northern plains.
Northwest flow aloft along the backside of the upper trough will keep bringing moist air, supporting chances of scattered showers into the afternoon and evening.
334 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023 An upper ridge has built in over the area with heights ranging from 578 to 582 and a low pressure system to the northwest has helped to usher in warm, moist air northward. This should help to set us up for some severe weather late Wednesday as a cold front pushes through from the west, therefore have highlighted a marginal risk area to account for this.
Warm Tuesday and Wednesday, then rain and thunderstorms enter from the west Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. The upper level ridge axis shifts east as a strong upper low moves from the plains to the Great Lakes region. Cloud cover will build back in, and S-SW winds become gusty Wed afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front.
1057 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023 Dry and warm conditions continue today as a ridge slowly shifts from over the Mississippi River into middle Tennessee and Alabama.
150 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 Showers are likely today along a warm front lifting toward Lake Erie. Potent low pressure and a cold front will provide the focus for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.
/29 (Now through Wednesday) An upper ridge over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic on Wednesday as a large western states upper trof advances into the Plains.
The high res suite of models continue to slow the progress of the front with timing of storms backing up until at least mid afternoon in the northwest tomorrow.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) The large Rocky Mountain trough that is resulting in widespread strong winds and historical fire weather this afternoon ejects into the Midwest tonight. Behind this trough, a weak cold front spills into the region. Much cooler temperatures are expected across a majority of the region, 30s and low 40s out west with temperatures remaining milder in the mid 40s further east.
----BMickelson Previous discussion: Forecast focus through midweek will be on the strong upper low lifting from the central Rockies, through the northern plains and into western Ontario. Temperatures will remain below normal for a few days then warm to above normal by the weekend as an upper ridge build over the region.
1147 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 An anomalous upper level ridge will remain over the east coast today into early Wednesday.
High pressure aloft will be responsible for the warm temperatures and fairly low wind speeds for April, which is normally our windiest month.
Cloud cover will erode through the day, becoming mostly sunny by this afternoon with highs reaching the low 80s. Highs through the Valley are expected to reach the lower 80s. High clouds increase this evening as the upper ridge axis shifts east of our area and a 500 mb vort max moves overhead.
A weak Canadian short wave aloft will keep the chance for snow showers going Wednesday with very light amounts expected and maybe an inch or so in a heavier convective shower then an upper ridge begins to slide east with drying Wednesday night. Main impact in the short term will be the winding down of the massive snow event in Pocatello and problems with back road travel and re-freezing after sunset of roadways which could cause some travel problems.
Look for very cold temperatures and gusty westerly winds area wide behind a cold front with light snow showers lingering through the day from the Mogollon Rim northward. Warmer temperatures and dry conditions are on the way for the remainder of the week as the storm track shifts northward.
(Tonight) A warm front was about to push north out of northeast AL and southern middle TN, with warm sector temperatures in the middle 70s to around 80 at this hour. Overnight, southerly flow will keep temperatures very mild with most lows in the middle to upper 60s, although a few eastern valleys may dip into the lower 60s.
1136 AM MDT Tue Apr 4 2023 At 09Z/Tues, the anomalously deep and cold low pressure system was centered over the UT/CO/WY triple point. Meanwhile, the cold front associated with the system had reached the Continental Divide as earlier runs had predicted. Ahead of the mid-level trough, a broad swath of showers encompassed the region along and east of a KBDG to KGJT to 30W KDWX line. In contrast however, held on the warning for the eastern Uinta Mountains as a shift in flow to the north at ridge level should yield persistent orographic forcing today.
The broad upper trough associated with this low continues a slow northeast trek north of the cwa.
255 PM MDT Tue Apr 4 2023 Light snow showers continue to fall this afternoon across much of the high country in the wake of yesterday's potent frontal boundary. Weak troughing will continue to swing through the region tonight, with winter highlights expected to come to an end by midnight. As this week's winter storm lifts out of the Great Plains towards the Great Lakes Wednesday morning a passing vort max will initiate another round of precipitation across the high country.
light snow will gradually end through the evening hours tonight across Southwest and into portions of North Central Montana as a potent upper level trough and attendant closed low lifts northeast from over the Central Rockies to over the Northern High Plains. H500 ridging over the Eastern Pacific Wednesday morning will begin to shift eastward to over the Northern Rockies through Wednesday night. This will lead to continued moist and unstable northwesterly flow over the Northern Rockies during the day on Wednesday, which combined with daytime heating is expected to lead to snow showers originating off of the higher terrain.
314 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023 18z surface data has the warm front running from the highway 34 corridor in Iowa east through central Illinois. Storm initiation south of the warm front will occur rapidly between 4 and 6 PM. The tornado risk will be the highest with storms along and near the warm front. There may or may not be a brief lull in storm activity late this evening before storms along the cold front arrive after midnight. The storms along the cold front will be capable of damaging winds and brief spin up tornadoes.
Especially as a cold front moves into the area and switches winds around to the northwest. Front will bring much cooler conditions to the area on Wednesday with highs in the 60s and 70s.
1253 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 An anomalous upper level ridge will remain over the east coast today into early Wednesday.
17Z observations are showing a stationary front located roughly from Syracuse to Great Bend with strong southwest winds on the south side of the front and has led to widespread blowing dust along and south of roughly the highway 56 corridor. Winds will continue to be breezy during the night and strong cold air advection in the lower levels should allow temperatures to fall into the 20s by daybreak. Wednesday will be seasonably cooler as the main upper trough moves into the central and northern plains. More tranquil conditions return to western Kansas early in the period as medium range ensembles indicate the strong upper level trough lifting northeast into the Upper Midwest Wednesday, giving way to more of a zonal flow across the Western High Plains by the end of the week.
758 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 A warm front will move north of the region tonight. On Wednesday, low pressure lifting from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest along with an associated cold frontal boundary will bring a focus for thunderstorms.
In addition, temperatures will remain cool, with frost and freezing temperatures expected Wednesday morning. Elsewhere across the remainder of Mendocino north into interior Humboldt County, freezing temperatures from 29 to 32F are forecast to occur, with slightly warmer conditions expected around Humboldt Bay promoting frost.
The short term forecast continues to revolve around the low level high continuing to further strengthen through the overnight period. From synopsis, moderate east to southeasterly breezes will continue to further freshen overnight as high pressure continues to build along the eastern Seaboard and Western Atlantic.
654 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023 (Tonight) A warm front was about to push north out of northeast AL and southern middle TN, with warm sector temperatures in the middle 70s to around 80 at this hour. Overnight, southerly flow will keep temperatures very mild with most lows in the middle to upper 60s, although a few eastern valleys may dip into the lower 60s.
With strong northwesterly winds, cooler temperatures, and rapidly increasing relative humidity, I was able to cancel the Red Flag Warning early this evening.
Most of the low level clouds will have lifted by this evening with some mid level stratus sticking around for the rest of the night. /LCP/ An upper ridge has built in over the area with heights ranging from 578 to 582 and a low pressure system to the northwest has helped to usher in warm, moist air northward. This should help to set us up for some severe weather late Wednesday as a cold front pushes through from the west, therefore have highlighted a marginal risk area to account for this.
1003 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 A warm front will move north of the region tonight. On Wednesday, low pressure lifting from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest along with an associated cold frontal boundary will bring a focus for thunderstorms.
739 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 (Through Wednesday) Upper level ridging is building in from the Gulf of Mexico with good southerly flow bringing in moisture, keeping our dew points in the mid to upper 60s.
The elongated area of low pressure is still back in central Kansas and is still expected to pivot northward as suggested by all the mainstream guidance; however, the spread in the ensemble member track is still quite varied especially between the Euro and GFS camps with some of the Euro members tracking the central low of this system as far east as the Keeweenaw Peninsula. In fact, expanded them a little to cover the potential for significant ice accumulations south of Duluth along I-35 and across portions of NW WI that straddle the above freezing air.
18z surface data has the warm front running from the highway 34 corridor in Iowa east through central Illinois. Storm initiation south of the warm front will occur rapidly between 4 and 6 PM. The tornado risk will be the highest with storms along and near the warm front. There may or may not be a brief lull in storm activity late this evening before storms along the cold front arrive after midnight. The storms along the cold front will be capable of damaging winds and brief spin up tornadoes.
Wind speeds have been very reluctant to increase much above blizzard criteria today due to the weakened gradients in the mid levels today in response to the elongated closed low.