Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Sunny and dry today with high pressure. Discussion: High pressure remains in control of our weather today with upper ridging extending through the Ohio Valley. This will place us on the eastern periphery of this ridge with N/NE flow and subsidence with clear sky conditions and dry air. Increasing heights will continue to lead to warming 850mb temperatures with max temperatures today being 3 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Low RH values are likely again this afternoon when the boundary layer mixes out, but winds are expected to remain light and variable with high pressure becoming centered across the Southern Appalachians. High pressure will continue the pattern of clear sky conditions and and calm winds tonight.
Cold front well north over northern Montana and northern North Dakota. Dry and breezy today as upper level ridge axis shifts east into central Nebraska.
Areas of cirrus will persist though across E TX/N LA along/S of I-20 through the remainder of the TAF period, as a closed low settles along the SE TX/S LA coast.
1157 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 High pressure will be the main influencer of the weather over the next few days.
1036 PM MDT Mon Apr 10 2023 High pressure remains overhead bringing another day of sunshine, minus a few high wispy clouds, and plenty of warm temperatures across the CWA. The high pressure is also bringing plenty of stable conditions to the region and generally light winds. Heading into the overnight, the next trough will be approaching the PacNW which will cause the ridge axis to shift eastward. with most of these gusts occurring over the higher elevations north of I-70.
1150 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 High pressure over the Appalachians will slowly drift southward this week, keeping our region dry, with a warming trend forecast.
1130 PM MDT Mon Apr 10 2023 Clear skies and mild temperatures expected tonight as the high pressure ridge continues to build into Colorado. Even warmer with elevated fire danger expected on the plains with low humidities and breezy conditions. Upper ridging will dominate the weather tonight and Tuesday. Highs should in the lower 80s F in Denver on Tuesday.
The south to southwest winds will gust to 25 to 35 mph by this afternoon, helping temperatures to soar under the upper ridge as H85 temps push toward +20C in western SD.
152 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023 High pressure is expected to bring dry weather through the rest of the week. A weak cold front will move into the region tonight before shifting northeast as a warm front. Previous Discussion: High pressure will remain across the region through the near term. Enough moisture and lift with a weak cold front will move into the region Tuesday night and looks to be sufficient for some mid and high level clouds. Some air advection as well Tuesday afternoon ahead of that front and some of the higher clouds should result in a warmer night with most spots in the upper 40's. 300 PM Update A slow moving high pressure centered south of our CWA heavily influences our region for most of the week.
435 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023 08Z sfc analysis shows a strong area of high pressure still in control of the weather for Kentucky. Combined with dry air in place these conditions brought about another night of excellent radiational cooling conditions resulting in a large ridge to valley temperature split with readings currently ranging from the mid 30s in the most sheltered spots to the lower 50s on the hills. Meanwhile, dewpoints vary from the mid 20s on the ridges to the low and mid 30s in the valleys. They all depict ridging building over the region as a rex block forms with heights further climbing over eastern Kentucky while troughing deepens to the southwest along the central Gulf Coast.
247 AM MDT Tue Apr 11 2023 Today will be the warmest day of the week with the warm upper ridge moving east of the region and an upper trof pushing into the Pacific Northwest. As the low moves east, a cold front will sweep across eastern Montana late in the day.
This afternoon's weather in the Lower Keys and adjacent southwest waters was mostly cloudy and gusty, with winds decreasing to light early this evening. 60 inches for portions of the Middle Keys, but the highest rainfall amounts were in the Florida Bay, where 1. This evening the weather became active across the outer Gulf of Mexico and the nearshore waters of the Lower Keys. Winds will begin to freshen from the northeast to east late tonight and through the morning hours as the cold front shifts south of the lower Keys and high pressure in the Mid-Atlantic builds into the region. From synopsis, high pressure centered near off the eastern seaboard extends through northern Florida and the frontal boundary is just south of Key West.
In addition, there is at least a slight chance of showers at all terminals but the highest confidence is for southern TAF sites, therefore VCSH conditions were added for the afternoon.
318 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 Dry and warmer weather is in store for the region through mid week. Across our area, an upper level ridge will build in creating a Rex Block which will keep precipitation well to our south.
This will occur in the developing Rex block pattern aloft with an upper low evolving across the lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast region with ridging aloft from New Mexico across the central Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes.
133 AM MDT Tue Apr 11 2023 Broad upper level ridge covers the western and central states.
250 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 A quiet night was seen throughout the region, as high pressure sits overhead. Temperatures are also very mild out there, with most in the low to mid 50s still! With that, we have a light southwesterly breeze. Beautiful weather is in store for us, as a large upper ridge sets up over the region. With high pressure situated to our east, southwesterly flow increases today, which will help increase temperatures even more! How warm are we talking? Well, if all goes as forecast, most of the area should see 80 today, or at least be near there.
404 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023 An anomalous upper level ridge with sprawling high pressure at the surface will keep our conditions dry with temperatures warming to well above normal for the second half of the week.
327 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023 High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to keep our region in this pleasant pattern with dry conditions and high temperatures continuing to creep higher above normal for this time of year. Will continue the idea of cooler than expected valleys in the low 40s thanks to decoupling, and they typical warm spots up around 50 for lows.
Previous discussion follows with minor modifications: The Northland will be heating up thanks to a building ridge and warm air advection as part of a Rex block pattern.
Meanwhile, tight pressure gradient between frontal boundary south of Florida and high pressure building across the region will continue to support gusty east to northeasterly winds in place over the next few days. Model soundings keep the highest amount of instability and moisture south of the I-4 corridor during the afternoon/evening hours.
321 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023 An anomalous upper level ridge will build eastward from the Northern Plains into the Mid Atlantic region this week, keeping our weather clear to partly cloudy and dry with temperatures warming to well above normal.
1113 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 An anomalous upper level ridge will build eastward from the Northern Plains into the Mid Atlantic region this week, keeping our weather clear to partly cloudy and dry with temperatures warming to well above normal.
611 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 (Today and tonight) Besides the possibility of patchy fog this morning, today should An area of subsidence shifting overhead and ahead of a broad ridge will promote the development of patchy fog this morning as light surface winds decouple and dewpoint depressions approach zero. This jet maxima rounds the base of the trough this afternoon resulting in the closing of the trough while shifting towards the Louisiana coastline tonight. Today, mid-level heights rise (mainly over western counties) as the ridge leans over the western plains. Low-level southeasterly flow, which is associated with the high pressure system over the eastern CONUS, may advect enough moisture for a few low- to mid- level clouds over SE parts of the CWA.
519 AM MDT Tue Apr 11 2023 Broad upper level ridge covers the western and central states. Highs will range from the lower 60s across NW SD to the 70s across south central SD, with temperatures in between depending on the timing/location of the front.
A strong cold front will move through western Montana and north central Idaho today. A plume of moisture will accompany the front, particularly along the Idaho panhandle/northwest Montana border southward into the higher terrain of north central Idaho.
High pressure will continue to bring near or record high temperatures today.
622 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 (Today) Another pleasant day ahead for the Tennessee Valley as early morning satellite shows clear skies are persisting and current temperatures range from the low to upper 40s. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 70s today, right near our climatological norm for mid April.
Meanwhile, most locations in the Lower Keys only observed anywhere from a trace to 0. Given this analysis, expecting a general lull in shower activity through the early afternoon hours, with convection filling back in later in the afternoon and evening, then another round overnight as the front pushes back northward as a warm front. From synposis, high pressure centered near the Carolinas and a stalled frontal boundary over the distant Straits of Florida will support strong to potentially near gale northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening.
A cold front associated with the next Pacific trough will move through the state Wednesday bringing a few rain and snow showers to eastern and northern Nevada.
Mid- level ridge axis is situated over the Four Corners. Low-level ridge will remain over the TN Valley, keeping easterly flow & most of the areas under dry thermal profiles. /DC/ By Wednesday, a developing upper low will dive into the TX/LA/MS coastline, generating moisture into the lower levels across the Lower Mississippi/Southeast region.
A weak cold front will bring cooler temperatures starting today with breezy winds this afternoon into Wednesday following the frontal passage. An incoming surface cold front is draped over far NorCal and extends southwestward over the Easter Pacific ocean.
630 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night) Upper troughing will continue sinking Swrd with a closed cyclone developing within the broader trough by this afternoon. At the sfc, elongated ridging will remain fixed across the Ern states with resultant Erly to SErly sfc flow locally. Overnight, temps will fall into the upper 40s F to low 50s F -- slightly cooler than what was observed this morning owing to mostly clear skies, a drier air mass, and more effective radiational cooling. By Wed, a sfc cyclone will develop over the Nrn Gulf with enhanced moisture transport on its Ern/Nrn periphery. The upper cyclone will begin to eject NEwrd late Wed night, drawing the sfc cyclone NEwrd as a result.
A quiet night was seen throughout the region, as high pressure sits overhead. Temperatures are also very mild out there, with most in the low to mid 50s still! With that, we have a light southwesterly breeze. Beautiful weather is in store for us, as a large upper ridge sets up over the region. With high pressure situated to our east, southwesterly flow increases today, which will help increase temperatures even more! How warm are we talking? Well, if all goes as forecast, most of the area should see 80 today, or at least be near there.
This should be the day we see our first 80 degree highs in the warmer spots like Greybull, Basin, Cowley and possibly even Worland. We agree with the previous shift that with warmer temperatures, any impacts in the lower elevations would be limited. More clouds keep keep temperatures warmer than they would be otherwise though. There is a bit more model agreement this morning in taking the upper level low further north into Montana as it splits.
642 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 (Today and tonight) West Central Texas will be northerly flow aloft, as an upper low along Upper Texas/Louisiana coast. No shower or thunderstorms expected West Central Texas will be on subsident side of the upper trough.
Areas with snow pack will see temperatures on the cooler side, but still above normal. A strong upper level ridge centered over the Northern Plains has brought in unseasonably warm 850 mb temperatures to the region. 850 mb temperatures around 70 degrees will result in surface temperatures in the southwest climbing into the upper 80s to maybe even the lower 90s. Warm temperatures will extend into tonight keeping the area above freezing prolonging the current melt across the state. The upper level ridge that brought warm weather in the short term will move off to the east. This will open the door for a cold front Wednesday morning resulting in near normal temperatures. Precipitation chances begin to increase Wednesday night as an upper level trough digs across the Northern Rockies.
Cold front well north over northern Montana and northern North Dakota. Dry and breezy today as upper level ridge axis shifts east into central Nebraska. a dry cold front begins to settle into the area from the north.
626 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 (Today and tonight) A pleasant day is in store for today as weak upper level ridging builds in across the forecast area. With the strengthening lee troughing will be an increase in the low level jet axis over West Texas tonight.
535 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023 An anomalous upper level ridge with sprawling high pressure at the surface will keep our conditions dry with temperatures warming to well above normal for the second half of the week.
Cooler air continues to filter into the area with low temps this morning dipping into the 50's and 60's once again. A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the north and a frontal boundary over the Florida Straits continues to produce gusty northeast winds and choppy seas over the eastern gulf waters.
943 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023 High pressure extending into the area will persist through most of the week. No precip today as high pressure persists at the surface and aloft. Have trended forecast warmer than NBM with highs in the lower and middle 70s. Have adjusted NBM temperatures a little warmer and surface dewpoints drier based on trends with this dry airmass. Red flag conditions are marginal with the area of lowest RH aligned with the lowest winds of around 10 mph or less and the highest winds around 15 mph over the northwest aligned with min RH values close to 30 percent. Mid level ridging to build into the area Wednesday which allow for a continued warming trend.
An oddly shaped mid to upper trough axis stretches ENE to WSW from the western North Atlantic to the short wave over Texas. Aside from the convective squall which moved south through the Lower Keys (narrowly missing much of drought stricken Key West) last evening, the Lower Keys are rain- free for the early morning hours. Over the next 24 hours, the ridge axis out west will break to the east, while the Texas short wave cuts-off near the TX/LA border. Meanwhile, the low-level kinematic fields will become more confluent and turn to the east-southeast.
500mb ridging from the 4 Corners area is extending ridging toward the northern plains and upper MS Valley. The low levels remain much too dry for any precip. Don't believe we will see that to the same degree today, but on the other hand we've got a warmer starting point today compared to yesterday (readings in the 40s to mid 50s presently). Max temps should reach the mid 50s to lower 60s in eastern upper MI; near 70f to the lower 70s in the bulk of northern lower MI, but in the 60s near Lake MI. we will have no problem becoming breezy today, as the pressure gradient remains tight between low pressure near Hudson Bay, and high pressure in the OH Valley.
A departing ridge of high pressure will support one final day of well above normal temps, as an approaching trough of low pressure also increases SSW winds regionwide but especially across the Central Mntns (where a WIND ADVISORY remains in effect 9 AM to 9 PM today) and MT border. High temps fall almost 10 degrees Wed as the trough works in with an increasing trend in rain/snow showers, but the steadiest precip looks to hold off until Wed night and beyond.
Upper-level high pressure will build eastward across the Quad State today, as an upper-level low pressure system settles over the northwest Gulf Coast. At the surface, high pressure will be centered to the south and southeast of the region through Wednesday.
621 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 Dry and warmer weather is in store for the region through mid week. Across our area, an upper level ridge will build in creating a Rex Block which will keep precipitation well to our south. Byrd Even though well above normal temperatures are expected through the rest of the work week, the latest deterministic and ensemble model runs continue to indicate that the Rex Block will begin to break down perhaps as early as Wednesday night as an upper level trough begins to dig over the western CONUS. As this trough deepens, it will eventually lift out towards the northeast, kicking the cutoff low towards the Ohio Valley.
High pressure remains overhead resulting in clear skies and dry conditions. Temperatures this morning are already in the upper 50s to lower 60s and will continue to rise into the low to mid 70s by this afternoon. A few degrees warmer than yesterday. Low pressure is starting to develop over the western Gulf, but clouds associated with that should remain to our south for today.
Calm surface winds due to the nearby high pressure to our northeast has allowed for dewpoint depressions to inch closer to zero so far early this morning. Any precipitation through the period is expected to be confined near/over the Gulf where an area of 500mb low pressure will remain stationary.
613 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023 High pressure extending into the area will persist through most of the week. Have adjusted NBM temperatures a little warmer and surface dewpoints drier based on trends with this dry airmass. Red flag conditions are marginal with the area of lowest RH aligned with the lowest winds of around 10 mph or less and the highest winds around 15 mph over the northwest aligned with min RH values close to 30 percent. Have trended forecast warmer than NBM with highs in the lower and middle 70s. Mid level ridging to build into the area Wednesday which allow for a continued warming trend.
346 AM MDT Tue Apr 11 2023 An upper level ridge will remain over the area today with dry conditions and well above normal temperatures. 850-700 mb temps would support highs in the lower to mid 80s across nern CO. Another record warm day expected on Wednesday as an increasing southwesterly flow aloft develops over the region ahead of an approaching trough over the Pacific Northwest. The record high temperature of 79 in Denver on the 12th, will be easily broken for Wednesday with the high around 84. There will be a chance of some weak showers in the high country by Wednesday afternoon.
The south to southwest winds will gust to 25 to 35 mph by this afternoon, helping temperatures to soar under the upper ridge as H85 temps push toward +20C in western SD. A dry cold front will move through on Wednesday bringing the start of a cooling trend to the region as the upper ridge begins its eastward transition. Starting off we will see a weak wave entering the Rockies which will help deepen a western CONUS trough, while the ridge amplifies to the east placing us under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, we're already seeing the development of an inverted trough extending northwards out of Colorado.
A strong upper level ridge centered over the Northern Plains has brought in unseasonably warm 850 mb temperatures to the region. 850 mb temperatures around 70 degrees will result in surface temperatures in the southwest climbing into the upper 80s to maybe even the lower 90s. Warm temperatures will extend into tonight keeping the area above freezing prolonging the current melt across the state. The upper level ridge that brought warm weather in the short term will move off to the east. This will open the door for a cold front Wednesday morning resulting in near normal temperatures. Precipitation chances begin to increase Wednesday night as an upper level trough digs across the Northern Rockies.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to keep our region in this pleasant pattern with dry conditions and high temperatures continuing to creep higher above normal for this time of year. Will continue the idea of cooler than expected valleys in the low 40s thanks to decoupling, and they typical warm spots up around 50 for lows. A dome of high pressure will be in place on Wednesday, which will yield continued fair weather and warmer temperatures. The center of the upper level ridge is forecast to expand eastward over the Ohio Valley, while stacked low pressure spins near the LA coast.
(Today and tonight) A pleasant day is in store for today as weak upper level ridging builds in across the forecast area. With the strengthening lee troughing will be an increase in the low level jet axis over West Texas tonight.
Meanwhile, tight pressure gradient between frontal boundary south of Florida and high pressure building across the region will continue to support gusty east to northeasterly winds in place over the next few days. Model soundings keep the highest amount of instability and moisture south of the I-4 corridor during the afternoon/evening hours. Going into Wednesday, an area of low pressure develops over the northern Gulf waters.
(Today and tonight) Besides the possibility of patchy fog this morning, today should An area of subsidence shifting overhead and ahead of a broad ridge will promote the development of patchy fog this morning as light surface winds decouple and dewpoint depressions approach zero. This jet maxima rounds the base of the trough this afternoon resulting in the closing of the trough while shifting towards the Louisiana coastline tonight. Today, mid-level heights rise (mainly over western counties) as the ridge leans over the western plains. Low-level southeasterly flow, which is associated with the high pressure system over the eastern CONUS, may advect enough moisture for a few low- to mid- level clouds over SE parts of the CWA.
628 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) This morning in the upper levels have a ridge extending up from Mexico across NM into CO with a trough over E TX that develops into a closed low today. Out west the next upper trough will start to come ashore today. On Wednesday the low to our east will remain along the SE TX/LA coast while the West Coast trough moves inland squeezing out the ridge. Temperatures will climb into the 80s nearly areawide today with very similar to slightly warmer conditions Wednesday.
634 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Mid-level low pressure will develop over the Texas/Louisiana border and persist over that area during the period. Although a steady influx of drier air associated with the low will result in limited cloud cover, northerly to northeasterly surface winds will keep daytime high and overnight low temperatures at the slightly below normal range.
Weak troughs will develop in this flow pattern which will lead to convergent bands of clouds and showers. The high will build more toward the northeast Wednesday, as a warm front extending from a low over the north central Gulf lifts northeast into area. Onshore showers will largely end in the morning, while showers will increase from south to north ahead of approaching warm front.