Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This warm front will lift through the day and reach northern Iowa. With the profile's moisture being shallow and focused in the lower atmosphere, not much coverage of rain expected through the day. The main challenge in rain tonight is the placement of the warm front relative to the LLJ max. As with previous shifts, have blended in guidance to correct the high wind gust guidance in the NBM.
A few lingering rain and higher elevation snow showers across northeast Nevada will dissipate through Thursday morning as a low pressure system exits the region.
905 AM PDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Much cooler inland today with strong and gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts gradually diminishing through this afternoon. Warmer temperatures for the valleys on Thursday with weak Santa Ana winds.
114 PM MDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Cyclonic spin from a low pressure system is visible on satellite across the Pacific Northwest today. This low will push additional rain showers across the Northern Rockies through this evening. As the trough of low pressure continues its push south of the region, shower activity will become more concentrated across southwest Montana and parts of north-central Idaho. As the low continues to move away on Thursday morning, some precipitation will linger in southwest Montana and along the Continental Divide in northwest Montana.
207 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 High pressure provides dry weather conditions through Thursday.
As the trough continues east this afternoon and evening, so will the rainfall. Weak upper level ridge will race across the local area behind the trough moving through today and head of the next one. Decreasing cloudiness and increasing 500mb heights will bring back warmer temps to the CWA on Thursday.
156 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 High pressure will keep the region dry through this evening. An approaching warm front may provide for light rain in spots late tonight and Thursday.
1237 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) A mid/upper level trough axis is currently pushing across the Southern Plains this morning, with widespread, light showers ongoing across SE Texas. This should bring cooler conditions overnight, with lows progged in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Clearing skies and 850mb temperatures rising to 16-18C should bring warmer conditions with highs progged to be in the 80s. A deepening mid/upper level low over the Great Basin/Rockies should promote surface cyclogenesis across the Plains.
Gradual clearing to the west should allow for slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 but should still remain below normal.
Vigorous upper level trough advecting across the central Rockies this afternoon, with pos theta-e adv ongoing across the FA. Rain will begin to change to snow early Thursday morning in the highest elevations of the Black Hills, with snow levels falling through Thursday and Thurs night. Further downhill, precip is expected to remain mostly rain in the foothills, with the highest elevations of the foothills changing to snow as early as Thur afternoon, but more likely Thur night. Otherwise, precip is expected to remain rain on most of the SD and WY plains, with some snow possible on the Pine Ridge and over portions of southern Campbell County where higher elevations are located.
The dynamic upper trough axis associated with the strong upper low moving into the High Plains tomorrow, will shift east into our area during the day. Strong W/SW surface winds will spread south and east out of New Mexico behind the trough axis in the afternoon. Did increase temperatures slightly from NBM to account for downsloping and compressional forcing out ahead of the strong cold front arriving later tomorrow night.
CN (This evening through Thursday Night) Clouds to gradually diminish as a weak mid-level ridge builds from the west across the ArkLaTex overnight. This cooler airmass will allow for overnight lows to fall into the 50s tonight. Otherwise, afternoon highs on Thursday to climb into the mid 70s to lower 80s with the cooler temperatures across south Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma.
The high clouds that were in our skies today will move off to the east this evening as a disturbance over the northern Gulf moves away, leaving us with a mostly clear overnight period. A warm front traveling northward across the region tonight will keep lows from falling below 50 for most locations, so no frost concerns. With the warm front to our north on Thursday, southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be in the warm sector. Thursday night, a large stacked low pressure system will begin moving eastward across the Plains towards northern Indiana. This will result in the Ohio Valley remaining in the warm sector until the arrival of the system's cold front.
1051 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Low pressure will drift over Florida to the Carolina coast tonight and Thursday, bringing much-needed rainfall to parts of our region.
A weak, transient ridge aloft will allow for very briefly warmer and drier weather Thursday.
The most likely reasons is some drier air sneaking in through the lower levels and being a bit too close to the deep layered anticyclone off to our southeast.
(Rest of tonight) Light precipitation will continue to taper off across the Tennessee Valley overnight as an area of low pressure tracks from the AL/MS Gulf Coast into SW GA. Overnight lows will be close to normal values for mid-October, bottoming out in the low to mid 50s.
403 PM MDT Wed Oct 11 2023 A trough set up across the northwestern US will continue to push in to Wyoming today. The now-closed low will track over Wyoming this evening to the southeast, strengthening overnight as it gets lee of the Rockies. This activity will begin to trend down through Thursday afternoon as the low moves into the Plains. However, showers are likely to still be occurring in places like Lander and Casper Thursday evening when cooler air begins to arrive.
648 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 High pressure will keep the region dry through this evening. An approaching warm front may support light rain or spinkles in spots late tonight and Thursday.
645 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 (This evening through Thursday evening) A mid/upper-level trough across the southwest U. A low-level thermal ridge (LLTR) will advance eastward with the veered low-level flow. The potential is not zero as it will be dependent on the cap and magnitude of the low-level moisture. As a cold front overtakes/intersects the dryline, there is a higher probability (compared to just the dryline) of convection Thursday evening/night--primarily across north central into central Oklahoma.
Clouds will continue to clear out as a sfc warm front currently over far western KY continues to lift northward overnight. The high clouds that were in our skies today will move off to the east this evening as a disturbance over the northern Gulf moves away, leaving us with a mostly clear overnight period. A warm front traveling northward across the region tonight will keep lows from falling below 50 for most locations, so no frost concerns. With the warm front to our north on Thursday, southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be in the warm sector. Thursday night, a large stacked low pressure system will begin moving eastward across the Plains towards northern Indiana. This will result in the Ohio Valley remaining in the warm sector until the arrival of the system's cold front.
210 PM PDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Gusty winds will diminish this evening, and the cooler than normal conditions will begin to moderate tomorrow.
Bowlan (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Mid/upper-level low is on track to develop over the High Plains and progress eastward over the Central Plains Thursday into Thursday evening. A surface cold front will push through the western and central part of OK during the daytime and into eastern OK by Thursday evening.
With abundant cloud cover and steady low-level flow around the Gulf low, overnight temps were nudged a little warmer to match a consensus of high-res short-term guidance. Cooler temps will hang on across the area tomorrow, though eroding cloud deck across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi should allow for temps to warm into the mid or even upper 70s. Gradual clearing to the west should allow for slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 but should still remain below normal.
857 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 High pressure will build over the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday.
612 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 A warm front will continue to produce showers mostly south of northeast Mississippi through this evening.
306 PM PDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Air Quality Section Updated Gusty winds will diminish this evening, and the cooler than normal conditions will begin to moderate tomorrow.
418 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 High pressure will cover the central Appalachians will allow for dry conditions into Friday.
257 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Low pressure will slowly track east toward the Maritimes today and tonight.
Moisture surging northward ahead of an incoming cold front, attached to a low over the Midwest and Ohio Valley, will trigger further widespread rain.
147 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 A warm front will lift northward tonight into Thursday morning allowing for warmer temperatures Thursday and Friday.
Another round of mid to upper level low pressure is working its way across Mexico this afternoon, and will lead to an increase in cloud cover during the overnight hours as it continues a NE track through the Gulf of Mexico. Warmer temperatures are in the forecast for tomorrow as cloud cover decreases, allowing more daytime heating to occur; however, warmer temperatures are not expected to last long as a deepening low pressure system makes its way across the Rockies and into the Plains and brings another cold front with it.
This will keep our high temperatures cooler from the mid 60s to the mid 70s.
313 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 It's a mild start to our Thursday due to a warm front lifting northward through the area. For tonight, dry weather will continue as the aforementioned low pressure system spins further east.
(Today through Friday Night ) An upper level ridge is over the central U. this morning with a large upper low over the Rockies. The upper ridge will move to the eastern U. by Thursday night as the upper low moves into the Plains. The upper low moves into the Midwest Friday and the upper ridge moves to the east coast. A cold front in the Plains will move through Arkansas Friday. Highs today and Friday will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s and cooler Friday night in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Another dry day is in store ahead of a cold frontal passage Friday. DNM A warm front will continue to produce showers mostly south of northeast Mississippi through this evening. A cold front will move across the region on Friday and bring in our best chances for rain area wide.
Don't have the highest confidence on how fast the rainfall moves northward today, and have also noticed latest HRRR runs delaying things in KABR until closer to 00Z, whereas model runs about 12 hours ago had a mid to late afternoon arrival. Will stick with the high end advisory at this point and mention gusts up to 55 mph possible.
Precipitation expected tomorrow night into Friday morning with the passage of a cold front.
Southwest compressional winds and sunny skies will allow highs in the lower to mid 90s in the Concho Valley and Big Country, with upper 80s farther south along the I-10 corridor where stratus will hang in longer this morning.
352 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 A warm front across northern Indiana and Ohio will dissipate today allowing high pressure to build in with above normal temperatures. As a low approaches Friday night, another warm front will lift into the area bring showers and some storms.
(Today through Friday Night) A deepening mid/upper level low over the Great Basin/Rockies should result surface cyclogenesis across the Plains, bringing southeasterly flow across SE Texas today. The aforementioned mid- latitude cyclone should trek eastward into the Upper Mississippi River Valley on Friday, pushing a cold front through SE Texas. Northerly flow behind the front should funnel cooler, drier air into the region, allowing for fall-like weather to persist across SE Texas.
Vigorous upper level trough advecting across the central Rockies this afternoon, with pos theta-e adv ongoing across the FA. Rain will begin to change to snow early Thursday morning in the highest elevations of the Black Hills, with snow levels falling through Thursday and Thurs night. Further downhill, precip is expected to remain mostly rain in the foothills, with the highest elevations of the foothills changing to snow as early as Thur afternoon, but more likely Thur night. Otherwise, precip is expected to remain rain on most of the SD and WY plains, with some snow possible on the Pine Ridge and over portions of southern Campbell County where higher elevations are located. Moderate/heavy snowfall will develop over the higher Black Hills overnight, persisting Thursday.
At 08z upper low over Colorado with area of rain into Wyoming and a band of t-storms thru Nebraska into Iowa. As upper low moves into western Nebraska by 00z Fri rain shield to the northeast of system will reach far SE ND/SD/MN border area 23z Thu - 00z Fri period and slowly spread north.
1237 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) Key Message: - Minor coastal flooding possible Thursday The mid level trough axis along the Middle Texas coast this evening will gradually move east into the northwest Gulf of Mexico by early Thursday morning. Southerly low level flow will return to the area Thursday night as an area of low pressure forms over the central high plains ahead of the strong upper low over the Rockies. This high tide is secondary to the primary high tide in the afternoon. P-ETSS shows tides could reach advisory levels for this high tide.
Temps have dropped to the low 30s which will allow for patchy frost in these regions possible. The clouds will continue to move northward as the upper level low moves to the east. However, there remains some moisture associated with the warm air advection out ahead of the approaching upper level low. - Rain chances increase Friday The before mentioned upper level low will move through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes tomorrow.
Discussion: Early this morning a warm front resides along the Missouri/Iowa border. Today a upper level trough will be ejecting out from the Great Basin into central Nebraska. This low will continue ENE through the evening into tonight. As the low moves into eastern Nebraska tonight a dryline will extend south from low across eastern Kansas. Tomorrow the upper level trough will move from central Nebraska to southern Minnesota forcing a cold front through the area.
1244 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 (This evening through Friday) A somewhat quiet short term is expected across much of Arkansas as high pressure continues to control the weather pattern through at least Thursday evening. As a strong low pressure system moves through the Rockies and into the northern Plains, some showers could impact northern locations Friday morning into the afternoon.
Clear skies and weak ridging overhead will make for a sunny afternoon with temperatures ranging from the low 70s to around 80 degrees.
320 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 The large low pressure area to our northwest will finally pass to our north today. This will bring a trough with some rain showers, mainly across the northern Champlain Valley into the Northeast Kingdom. Our weather pattern is in for a slight adjustment as an upper low shifts east today. Forcing for ascent should be fairly good today from a combination of an acceleration of the jet stream to our southwest, an incoming trough axis, and cold temperatures aloft allowing for the generation of 150-250 J/kg of CAPE this afternoon, mainly across Vermont.
Expect highs in the lower 80s Thursday and middle/upper 80s by Friday.
Cold temperatures are expected Friday morning followed by lighter winds and dry and warmer conditions for the weekend. A hard freeze remains in the forecast Friday morning for portions of the high country and the Navajo Nation. Gusty to strong southwest winds of 30-45 mph are taking place across northern Arizona this afternoon as a low pressure trough digs into the Southwest from the north. Widespread freezing temperatures are likely across the High Country and Navajo Nation during this time.
Meanwhile, an upper low eject east from the Rockies into the central/northern plains, with upper heights rising in response downstream along/east of the Mississippi river valley today.
A broad area of low pressure with moisture present along the spine of the Continental Divide will keep high elevation snow (above 7000 feet) and low elevation rain going in those areas this morning, while most of western Montana and north central Idaho experience a cool, cloudy, and breezy day today.
102 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 (Rest of tonight) Light precipitation will continue to taper off across the Tennessee Valley overnight as an area of low pressure tracks from the AL/MS Gulf Coast into SW GA. Overnight lows will be close to normal values for mid-October, bottoming out in the low to mid 50s. (Thursday through Friday night) Weak upper level ridging will build over the area on Thursday, and the bulk of the tropical moisture will be pushed well to our south. Dry conditions are expected through Thursday with the drier airmass reinforced, but eyes will turn to an upper low over the Great Plains and expected cyclogenesis off the Rockies. A cold front will trail behind this activity, bringing much cooler temperatures to the area for the weekend.
A strong closed low at 500mb will move across Colorado and out onto the Central Plains from this morning through the afternoon. A cold front will follow this evening bringing in even drier air and cold air advection.
Widespread stratus mixes out leading to warmer, slightly above normal temperatures under fair skies this afternoon. The best chances for drizzle are mainly over the Escarpment into the Edwards Plateau and parts of the Hill Country due to orographic lift from the low level jet. A prefrontal trough may scour out most moisture.
Warmer, drier conditions remain through Friday as high pressure moves in.
153 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Low pressure will drift over Florida to the Carolina coast tonight and Thursday, bringing much-needed rainfall to parts of our region.
Meanwhile the collision of cold front into the dry line Thursday evening will provide better low level convergence/deeper lift, and this would be the more favored time frame for storms to develop.
Later today, the low pressure system is forecasted to pass over the Big Bend of Florida, resulting in potentially dangerous weather conditions across southern Georgia, as well as northern and central Florida. The ridge of high pressure from the Caribbean is expected to strengthen further as it moves over the Florida Keys and extends westward across the western Gulf of Mexico. The ridge and the proximity of the Gulf low north of the area has tightened the pressure gradient over the region, resulting in breezy conditions. However, as the low pressure system continues to move northeast and eventually into the western Atlantic waters, the pressure gradient will weaken, decreasing winds. The high pressure will promote warm and stable weather conditions late today through Friday. The high pressure system will suppress convection, resulting in rain chances at 10%.
Moving on, an upper ridge axis will reach our area on Thursday afternoon.
(Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Minor Coastal Flood Advisory in Effect - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents - Warmer and Drier Conditions A mid-level high centered over the FL straits and a mid-level low traversing across the Rocky MTNS will result in southwesterly flow aloft across the region. Rainfall over South Texas has diminished and have opted to go with silent PoP's as the remaining moisture from the remnants of a post tropical eastern pacific cyclone streams northeast across Mexico. A stable atmosphere and less cloud cover will lead to more diurnal heating and warmer daytime highs in the mid 80s to near 90 today with tomorrow being about 5 degrees warmer with the western Brush Country topping out near 95 degrees. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s northeast to the low to mid 70s elsewhere.
217 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 High pressure will cover the central Appalachians will allow for dry conditions into Friday.
The threat for severe weather continues through mid-day as an area of low pressure moves into the Florida panhandle. As the low continues the ENE propagation, this favorable axis continues to translate eastward with it, keeping the FL peninsula in a region where additional storms are possible. As the low pulls away later today and tonight, the severe threat will diminish. Another cold front arrives this weekend, finally clearing things out and ushering back in another round of cooler and drier weather for the start of the week.
620 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 (Today through Friday Night) A deepening mid/upper level low over the Great Basin/Rockies should result surface cyclogenesis across the Plains, bringing southeasterly flow across SE Texas today. The aforementioned mid- latitude cyclone should trek eastward into the Upper Mississippi River Valley on Friday, pushing a cold front through SE Texas. Northerly flow behind the front should funnel cooler, drier air into the region, allowing for fall-like weather to persist across SE Texas.
1018 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 High pressure will cover the central Appalachians will allow for dry conditions into Friday.
This will help keep lows above freezing, and generally in the mid to upper 30s. The large low pressure system across the plains could stall somewhat on Friday.
The steady warming trend continues through Friday as high pressure build.
324 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2023 The Pacific low pressure system will continue to move southeastward toward the central plains today, leaving a cool and moist east to northeast flow aloft over North-central and Southwest Montana. A Pacific low pressure system will continue moving southeastward through Wyoming into the central plains today while maintaining a cool and moist east to northeasterly flow aloft over the Northern Rockies. The easterly flow aloft loosens its grip on the Northern Rockies on Friday as the supporting low pressure system moves deeper into the plains. Ensembles are in fairly good agreement with a southwesterly flow aloft developing for the first part of the weekend followed by a period of ridging.
811 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 A warm front across northern Indiana and Ohio will dissipate today allowing high pressure to build in with above normal temperatures. As a low approaches Friday night, another warm front will lift into the area bring showers and some storms.
Key Messages: * Extreme fire danger today * Very strong post-frontal winds Friday * Much colder Friday Early morning satellite water vapor channel shows a strong upper level low moving across the northern Rockies early this morning. This low will eventually eject out across the central/northern plains later this evening. Ahead of this low, pressures are expected to fall as cyclogenesis occurs. Have the highest confidence of the worst Red Flag conditions along and south of Highway 50. An associated cold front will start to approach the FA from the northwest tonight. Have the highest confidence of wind gusts around 60 mph across the northwest counties. Otherwise, tomorrow will be much cooler with highs only in the 50s to a few 60s readings along the Oklahoma border. High pressure will build over the FA during the weekend.
321 AM PDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Gusty northeasterly Santa Ana winds below passes and canyons and near the coastal slopes of the mountains will peak this morning with high temperatures for the valleys, inland Orange County, and the coastal slopes of the mountains around 8 to 12 degrees warmer than Thursday.