Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper high currently over the Desert Southwest will push westward today with the resulting upper ridge amplifying across the West Coast. This, along with a slow moving cold front, will help cool highs across the region with upper 80s across the far southern Texas Panhandle to upper 90s across our southern counties. The cold front, as of 2 AM CDT, is beginning to make its way into the northern Texas Panhandle. Convection is still expected to develop across the Rotan Mesa this afternoon and will be aided by upsloping flow due to the cold front. With the upper high being located to our west resulting in a northwesterly steering flow, storms should be able to make it at least into our northwestern zones by this evening before gusting out.
Temperatures fall back into the normal range this weekend as a cold front sags into the Southeast providing support for increased cloud cover and rain chances. The main threat of severe weather will be damaging winds from lines of thunderstorms in the southern Midlands and CSRA but the higher confidence is south of the FA.
1058 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Latest observations show the cold front located across southeastern to southern Oklahoma and south of our western north Texas counties. Otherwise, a cold front will continue to push south through southern Oklahoma into north Texas this morning with a nice cool down in its wake across much of the area today.
100 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 High pressure will offer cooler and drier weather today.
137 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Dry weather and generally seasonable temperatures are expected this weekend under high pressure, with only isolated afternoon showers expected.
Arthur Energy moving through the upper level ridge will bring a 10-15% chance of isolated showers to the Absaroka/Beartooths, northeastern Bighorns, and far southeastern Montana this afternoon and evening. Saturday looks to be a quiet weather day as the ridge axis continues to inch east and become more centered over the forecast area. The low for tonight and tomorrow are expected in the low to mid 60s. Archer Ridge builds over the area this weekend bringing the hottest air of the year so far.
This high will continue to move south-southeast to settle over Oklahoma/Arkansas tonight into Saturday. This high will produce some pretty spectacular July weather with low humidity and highs only topping out in the mid 80s on Saturday.
326 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 A weak cold front will clear the region tonight, with drier and more comfortable conditions expected over the weekend for a change.
957 AM MDT Fri Jul 21 2023 An upper level ridge of high pressure will strengthen through the upcoming weekend for increasingly hot and mainly dry conditions.
1144 AM MDT Fri Jul 21 2023 High pressure remains locked in across the region this morning. The flat, elongated high pressure area continues to push the strongest moisture plume westward over Baja Mexico. Some weaker moisture remains trapped under the high from the Four Corners southward to the Mexican Border. Dry air has begun to infiltrate the Great Basin to the south of the approaching Pacific Northwest trough. Ample sunshine will push temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal values, as the ridge builds over the Intermountain West. The amplitude of the ridge will strengthen Saturday, thus high temperatures on Saturday are expected to add a few degrees to Friday afternoon's highs.
418 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 A weak cold front will clear the region tonight, with drier and more comfortable conditions expected over the weekend for a change.
1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 (Today through Saturday Night) The mid to upper level ridge will continue to shift westward and build over the the Desert SW today into the weekend.
129 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Drier and warmer conditions with typical westerly afternoon breezes persisting through the weekend.
146 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 A cold front continues to progress across the Mid Atlantic this afternoon. Behind it, high pressure will bring mostly dry weather through the weekend.
304 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 (Issued 301 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023) Tonight through Saturday night: High pressure building in allows for quiet conditions to continue through tonight. Areas further south are likely to remain dry with high pressure dominating the area and dry air in the lower 5000ft.
Ever so slightly cooler air is noted behind this feature with a light northwest wind, but an actual cold front is located just north of the Red River. This feature will slip southward through the afternoon and will actually bring some slightly cooler weather to start the weekend. Areas along and north of I-20 will be slightly cooler through the afternoon, although moisture pooling along and ahead of the cold front will lead to some elevated heat indices. Overnight lows may dip into the lower 70s north of I-20 tonight. Cooler air will be in place on Saturday for most of the area, but the boundary will become hung up across Central TX and a few of our counties to the south will likely still see highs near 100. Elsewhere to the north, highs will top out in the low to mid 90s.
On Saturday the ridge over the Rockies and Northern High Plains will continue to build, with an eastward nudge. With the eastward ridge axis nudge comes 850mb temperatures a few degrees warmer as well, along with forecast highs.
223 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Northerly flow on the backside of a departing trough has ushered in a drier air mass, which should result in less coverage of storms today compared to previous few days. This push of drier air from the north is also due in part to the high pressure ridge sliding back to the west. Cumulus is popping over the rest of the high terrain but most hi res CAMs seem to indicate the San Juans being the next likely candidate for isolated activity later in the day. The high pressure ridge will remain west of the Four Corners and build over the Great Basin by Saturday, effectively cutting off that moisture return from the south and west at least for the next few days.
Low level east to southeast winds will keep the low level moisture feeding into the storms as they head for the western Texas Panhandle. An upper level short wave trough may help to spread the storms more to the east once they reach interstate 40 and they may spread across the southern Texas Panhandle into far southwest Oklahoma after midnight.
High pressure over Arizona will continue to bring hot conditions into the weekend. The center of the high pressure has moved far enough northward this morning to allow moisture to increase over north-central and northern Arizona. The high pressure will continue to bring hot to record breaking temperatures across northern Arizona today.
Aloft, the upper-level ridge will shift west allowing for northwest flow to increase areawide. Some relief from the heat is expected across much of south Arkansas, northeast Texas, and southeast Oklahoma as a cooler and drier airmass builds behind the front.
The upper ridge that has dominated our weather this month will shift briefly west allowing for northwest flow to develop aloft Saturday.
151 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 A trough of relatively cool air aloft will combine with a cold front, that was located along the South Shore of Lake Erie early this morning, to bring the chance of a few showers or perhaps an afternoon thunderstorm today, especially over the eastern part of the state. The weekend should be drier, as high pressure builds overhead.
Cooler temperatures expected tomorrow behind the cold front. A cold front is moving through the Concho Valley, as of this afternoon. The ridge over our area is expected to shift westward as an upper level trough builds over the eastern United States. The movement of the high along with the cold front, will lower highs for Saturday. The current (not including today) 11 day streak of 100+ days in Abilene and possibly the 12 day streak of 100+ days in San Angelo could be broken tomorrow, with highs forecast in the lower 90s to right around 100 degrees. Finally, our southern most counties could see some precipitation Saturday evening as convection initiates along the cold front.
As a result, ideal radiational cooling conditions will allow overnight low temperatures to be a hair cooler than last night and in the upper 50s to lower 60s, warmest near the urban core of Chicago. At least a modest increase in mid-level clouds should hold overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
346 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 High pressure will offer cooler and drier weather tonight.
126 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2023 With continued high pressure, the overall trend of hot and dry conditions will continue through the weekend.
1241 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 (Today and tonight) Weak cold front will make an appearance this afternoon across the Big Country, and slide a little farther south tonight.
1254 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 (Today through Saturday Night ) H500 ridging will persist to the S/W of the state today which will continue to provide NW flow over the region. A cold front will be making progress into the state from the north and is expected to be near the AR/LA border by tonight.
Active weather will gradually clear out of Middle Tennessee after tonight, and the heat and humidity will also give way to cooler and much drier air.
132 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 A weak cold front was moving slowly across the forecast area this morning with mostly cloudy skies across the northern area and southern area with some clearing skies in between.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will strengthen through the upcoming weekend for increasingly hot and mainly dry conditions.
(This evening through Saturday) North winds behind this mornings cold front passage will continue to bring unseasonably cooler air as well as slightly drier down from the Central Plains through Saturday.
143 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2023 An upper level ridge of high pressure will strengthen through the upcoming weekend for increasingly hot and mainly dry conditions.
Temperatures will warm another 2-3 degrees above yesterdays highs as the upper level ridge expands northward. Temperatures will remain hot through the weekend with the ridge centered over south-central Idaho.
Unidirectional shear profiles & mean bulk shear around 25kts in the low-mid levels combined with some favorable lapse rates/vertical totals & destabilization will aid in isolated severe convection, mainly into the aftn hours. Highs will be cooler north but compressional warming & continued warm thermo south of I-20 will these areas warm into the mid 90s.
We can thank high pressure that will move from the Mississippi valley to the Ohio valley while extending up across our region. The base of a progressive longwave trough will make its way across Lake Ontario this afternoon and evening. Mins will range fro the mid 50s across the western Southern Tier and on the Tug Hill to the lower 60s across the lake plains. high pressure over the lower Mississippi valley will drift east across the Ohio valley while extending up across our forecast area.
346 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to persist through this afternoon and evening as low pressure and an associated cold front continues to move across the region.
There is still enough moisture and marginal instability for isolated thunderstorms over mountains and higher terrain, especially over the CYS ridge. High pressure ridge aloft remains west of Colorado and continues to build across the Great Basin. Thermal ridge building from the west with 700mb temperatures rising another 2-4 degrees C. A ridge of high pressure will dominate the region for the next several days to come. The upper level high will shift slowly eastward over the Southern Rockies through the weekend, while a rather high amplitude ridge will extend northward from that across Colorado and into the Northern Rockies/High Plains.
Mean-layer ridging stretches from the Southwest US to the Bahamas, although it is losing strength. The low-level anticyclone is centered to the southeast of the Bahamas. Cumulus fields over the Lower Keys were getting healthier earlier this afternoon, but are now weak and shallow. The low-level gradient will remain weak for the next several days as a ridge axis camps out over the Keys.
The 12Z FL RAOBs sampled falling heights at all SGLs, with the core of the mean layer ridge dropping 500 mb heights across the Southwest US. It is hard to believe that the current lack of showers and storms anywhere near the Keys will change by this afternoon, but we feel the light west-southwest steering flow will be ripe for cloud lines in the lee of the Lower Keys.
256 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 A weak cold front will clear the region tonight, with drier and more comfortable conditions expected over the weekend for a change.
With upper ridging over the western US and a trough over the eastern US, northwest flow upstream of the Lower Ohio Valley will continue to push higher surface pressure into the area. The dew point depression will start off fairly large with dew points in the low to mid 60s, but areas along the western side of the CWA could see some light fogging if skies clear. High temperatures will be near today's, in the low to mid 80s.
Forecast thoughts: The upper air pattern has been slow to change over the past week and still features a deeply stacked low over the Hudson Bay region with an elongated trough axis working through the New England states. A semi-permanent anticyclone is set up over the southwestern CONUS with a ridge building into the Intermountain West region. Near the local area, an MCV is tracking into the lower Mid MS Valley with a surface area of high pressure working into the central Plains. As the upper air pattern begins to change and transition to a more amplified ridge over the western CONUS, the northwest flow over the region will be slow to push east.
Otherwise, skies will gradually clear tonight allowing for minTs to fall into the lower 60s. An upper level trough across the Ohio Valley will allow for northwest flow to start the weekend with ample sunshine. Low humidity can be expected with maxTs progged in the low to mid 80s and minTs well in the 60s.
The outflow boundary from the MCS lies across extreme SE OK with a weak cold front across southern KS making steady progress southward. Otherwise drier and cooler conditions will prevail.
Mainly quiet conditions continue through the near term period in the wake of a weak cold front that has dropped dew point values down into the lower to mid 60s. Another quiet day is expected Saturday once any morning fog/stratus burns off with high pressure sitting overhead. May actually see dew point values falling below the 60 degree mark Saturday afternoon for the first time since July 12th at West Virginia International Yeager Airport as highs rise into the lower 80s.
Saturday will be warmer and mostly dry with highs in the mid to upper 80s. An amplified ridge will be in place over the Rockies Saturday night with northwest flow aloft across our area.
251 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 A trough will linger over the region Friday followed by weak high pressure through the weekend.
Mainly quiet conditions continue through the near term period in the wake of a weak cold front that has dropped dew point values down into the lower to mid 60s. Another quiet day is expected Saturday once any morning fog/stratus burns off with high pressure sitting overhead. May actually see dew point values falling below the 60 degree mark Saturday afternoon for the first time since July 12th at West Virginia International Yeager Airport as highs rise into the lower 80s. On the whole, high pressure brings the promise of dry weather this weekend, both in terms of lower humidity and lack or rain. However, with long wave ridging in the west and long wave troughing in the east, the rogue afternoon pop-up shower or thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out, given short wave troughs rotating through the long wave trough position.
1123 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 A weak cold front was moving slowly across the forecast area this morning with mostly cloudy skies across the northern area and southern area with some clearing skies in between.
(This evening through Saturday) The upper level high is now centered over the western CONUS which has allowed for northwest flow aloft to dominate over the forecast area. This is leading to the slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon. This cloud cover, along with decreased layer thickness and northwest flow aloft will support cooler conditions across our area, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
We continue to expect partly sunny skies for Saturday with cooler temps and a more tolerable humidity level than we have had in several days. Active weather will gradually clear out of Middle Tennessee after tonight, and the heat and humidity will also give way to cooler and much drier air.
(The rest of tonight) Cooler and drier air will continue to filter into the region tonight as deep layer ridging settles behind the passage of a cold front earlier today. Otherwise, and unseasonably cool night is in store, with lows dipping down into the low to mid 60s. Some of the typically cooler locations could briefly dip into the upper 50s for a time.
708 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 (This evening through Saturday) The upper level high is now centered over the western CONUS which has allowed for northwest flow aloft to dominate over the forecast area. This is leading to the slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon. This cloud cover, along with decreased layer thickness and northwest flow aloft will support cooler conditions across our area, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
804 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 A weak cold front will clear the region tonight, with drier and more comfortable conditions expected over the weekend for a change.
607 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 A weak cold front will clear the region tonight, with drier and more comfortable conditions expected over the weekend for a change.
A current look at the 500mb heights and GOES 16 water vapor imagery shows the high has moved over the Arizona/New Mexico border and this should open the door for a weak cold front to slide southward into South Central Texas Saturday morning, making it as far south as the I-10 corridor over the Coastal Plains.
837 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 High pressure builds into the region for the weekend.
At the large scale, the region is currently between the high pressure ridge that often builds over the Four Corners region and a very broad low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska off the coast of British Columbia. The ridge has retrograded slightly, and under its influence we're seeing above average temperatures in the 90s and low triple digits through the region. Further east, today will likely see the warmest temperatures of the week, as ridging will start to break down and move eastwards over the weekend into the early week as the Gulf of Alaska low slowly spins its way onshore.
With an exception of the passing showers, temperatures have cooled into the lower 70s with light winds. A cold front was moving southward across the area.
809 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 A weak cold front will clear the region tonight, with drier and more comfortable conditions expected over the weekend for a change.
1010 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to persist through this afternoon and evening as low pressure and an associated cold front continues to move across the region.
816 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Temperatures fall back into the normal range this weekend as a cold front sags into the Southeast providing support for increased cloud cover and rain chances. Saturday and Saturday Night: The region will remain positioned along the southern periphery of a deep upper level trough. Highs during the afternoon should be somewhat cooler, with most areas in the upper 80s to around 90.
716 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 High pressure builds into the region for the weekend.
Triple digit heat with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s are expected over the weekend in many valley locations as high pressure strengthens over the region. Upper level high pressure continues to dominate the Great Basin region including the silver state. By Saturday, model solutions are showing a weak impulse moving northward from the western edge of the ridge.
A ridge builds across from the west tonight keeping light winds across the region. Mainly quiet conditions continue through the near term period in the wake of a weak cold front that has dropped dew point values down into the lower to mid 60s. Another quiet day is expected Saturday once any morning fog/stratus burns off with high pressure sitting overhead. May actually see dew point values falling below the 60 degree mark Saturday afternoon for the first time since July 12th at West Virginia International Yeager Airport as highs rise into the lower 80s.
630 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2023 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION An upper level ridge of high pressure will strengthen through the upcoming weekend for increasingly hot and mainly dry conditions.
519 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Northerly flow on the backside of a departing trough has ushered in a drier air mass, which should result in less coverage of storms today compared to previous few days. This push of drier air from the north is also due in part to the high pressure ridge sliding back to the west. Cumulus is popping over the rest of the high terrain but most hi res CAMs seem to indicate the San Juans being the next likely candidate for isolated activity later in the day. The high pressure ridge will remain west of the Four Corners and build over the Great Basin by Saturday, effectively cutting off that moisture return from the south and west at least for the next few days.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and into the early evening in the higher terrain of Southern Nevada and Northwestern Arizona.
High pressure over Arizona will continue to bring hot conditions into the weekend.
645 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 (This evening through Saturday) North winds behind this mornings cold front passage will continue to bring unseasonably cooler air as well as slightly drier down from the Central Plains through Saturday.
745 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Dry weather and generally seasonable temperatures are expected this weekend under high pressure, with only isolated afternoon showers expected.
831 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 A cold front continues to progress across the Mid Atlantic this afternoon. Behind it, high pressure will bring mostly dry weather through the weekend.
Easterly low level flow has maintained 50 to lower 60 dew points into the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains. Tomorrow will be warmer and drier, though some isolated thunderstorms across the mountains will still be possible in the afternoon.
540 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 High pressure will offer cooler and drier weather tonight.
The potential for severe weather has ended tonight and heat index values has dropped below critical thresholds and will only become cooler then remainder of the night. Surface analysis had a weak cold front just north of our CWa that will drift south through the night. Unidirectional shear profiles & mean bulk shear around 25kts in the low-mid levels combined with some favorable lapse rates/vertical totals & destabilization will aid in isolated severe convection, mainly into the aftn hours. Highs will be cooler north but compressional warming & continued warm thermo south of I-20 will these areas warm into the mid 90s.
742 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 High pressure will offer cooler and drier weather tonight.
Besides the high temperatures, a robust Saharan air Layer moving into the region from the east can occasionally result in hazy weather conditions.
High temps will once again reach the lower 80s. Only slight chances for pcpn while temps will warm into the lower to middle 80s.
354 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Weak cyclonic 500mb flow pivots over the region today within the base of a persistent upper trough encompassing eastern North America. High temps in the lower 80s will be right around normal for late July.