Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A brief period of freezing rain is possible in sheltered valleys today as snow transitions to rain below around 4500 ft elevation. The area we believe has the best chance for light freezing rain is the Upper Weiser River Basin zone, but webcams presently show snow falling there. Pockets of freezing rain in the area between KBKE-KMYL-KONO this morning.
200 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 A cold front will move east across the Carolinas and offshore today.
Developing low pressure east of the Rockies will accelerate the change in winds to southeasterly Friday afternoon, returning moist, Gulf air to the region.
1125 AM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 (Today through Friday) This AM at the surface, a cold front is present to the SE of AL extending from a low pressure system over NY. High pressure will continue to build over the C U. The ridge center is then expected to shift to over the Deep South as the main low over NY pushes to the EWD into the Atlantic taking the front with it and the SRN edge extending to the base of FL. The sky should remain clear through the short term with W winds 5-10kts today but lighter tomorrow as the ridge center settles in over AL and gradients relax. Cooler readings are expected today as opposed to our transitional day on Wed and still cooler for Friday.
1019 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 High pressure builds from the west over the next few days bringing rain-free and near seasonable weather.
Temperatures are expected to soar into the mid to upper 70s across much of West TX and southeast NM and the lower elevations in the Pecos River valley could see highs touching 80 degrees.
603 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 (Through Friday) High pressure will nestle into the region allowing dry weather to prevail. Temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the upper 30s and low 40s fore SE AL and SW GA and in the low to mid 40s for our FL counties.
H5 analysis this morning has a closed low in the vicinity of Dubuque Iowa with a trough extending down the Mississippi River into eastern Louisiana. West of this feature, a high amplitude ridge extended from the Four Corners, north-northwest into northeastern British Columbia. West of this feature, a closed low was located approximately 400 miles off the coast of central Oregon. A trough extended south-southeast of this feature to off the coast of central and southern California. At the surface, high pressure was anchored over eastern Colorado, western Kansas and the Nebraska Panhandle.
The upper level low will continue to move east across the southern Great Lakes region tonight and should pull any light snow or flurries out of the CWA early this evening. Overnight lows will once again be below freezing with daytime highs recovering to the middle 30s to lower 40s.
839 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 As of 830 the cold front is located just south of a KAPF-K2IS- KSUA with any shower activity along the front weak and isolated as expected. Taking a look at the bigger picture, A mid-level trough continues to advect eastward across the Great Lakes region today with an associated frontal boundary gradually propagating southward across the Florida peninsula. High temperatures will reach the low to middle 80s along the immediate coast with a few suburbs potentially reaching the upper 80s during peak heating this afternoon. Temperatures along the immediate Gulf coast will be the "cool" spot today as southerly winds blow onshore after passing over cooler shelf waters. High temperatures will remain in the low 80s along these areas. Temperatures will be near seasonal norms tomorrow with high temperatures in the low to upper 70s area-wide.
The main concern is for patchy freezing fog around Sheridan County, portions of the Milk River Valley, and the Missouri River Valley.
520 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 The weather remains clear and quiet this evening under high pressure.
637 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 The passage of a trough brings mostly light rain and snow to the region tonight into Friday night, with snow accumulation of up to a couple of inches on the ridges.
841 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 A cold front will move east and well offshore tonight.
423 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 The passage of a trough brings mostly light rain and snow to the region tonight into Friday night, with snow accumulation of up to a couple of inches on the ridges.
The long wave trough remains just off the coast of CA with a convergence boundary just to our west. The boundary will push east over the next few hours as the trough axis tracks through NorCal and rain will be much lighter behind it. Short wave ridging builds in overnight into early tomorrow. A cold front will stall out over northwest CA as long wave troughing tracks out of the Gulf of Alaska and a short wave pushes into BC with another one digs over the Pacific.
There is some apparent cross channeling PVA rounding the base of the mean upper trof this afternoon. An area of clouds will continue to move across the area through the evening hours, persisting overnight across the lower Wabash River Valley region.
Cold front over SWFL this evening expected to continue moving south of the area into Friday with cooler, drier air filtering into the state. Clear skies during the weekend with high pressure in place.
Lows tonight will be in the low 40s for most locations with some upper 30s in south-central Georgia and Southeast Alabama. (Through Friday) High pressure will nestle into the region allowing dry weather to prevail. Temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the upper 30s and low 40s fore SE AL and SW GA and in the low to mid 40s for our FL counties.
634 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 An upper level low will track through the southern portion of the Great Lakes and bring scattered rain and snow showers to the region. The upper low centered over the Great Lakes will track east and then northeast on Friday. Given the warmer temperatures of late, surfaces are above freezing and roads are only wet.
203 PM MST Thu Jan 5 2023 The west coast trough will move inland tonight, and cross Colorado on Friday. There's plenty of mid and high level moisture ahead of the trough to keep our skies mostly cloudy. While this system has the moisture, neither the lift nor the lower level winds are that strong, which will limit the snow accumulations in our mountains. A disjointed combination of the trough axis and a backdoor cold front could provide a few showers on the plains Friday afternoon or evening, but for now we'll only have some isolated PoPs near the northern foothills and Wyoming border.
544 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 Tonight and Friday: Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis still had our CWA at the base of an upper level trough emanating from a closed low centered over the Great Lakes region. The closed low will open up as it shifts east and moves over the New England states by Friday evening. Friday our flow aloft will become near zonal as the upper level trough shifts east off the east coast.
645 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 Deepening moisture plume attendant to the low pressure system tracking across the area maintaining an extensive low stratus canopy, while offering a high coverage of light precipitation. Precipitation wanes during the early morning hours as moisture depth decreases in the wake of the low.
852 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 00Z upper air analysis and GOES-16 Water Vapor Satellite trends depict an upper level trough over the Eastern United States, an upper level ridge axis over the Rockies, and and elongated trough axis along the West coast of the United States. Meanwhile, a 1025 mb ridge of high pressure centered over the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma is bringing clear skies to the Mid-South this evening.
Hoenisch Scattered snow showers or light freezing rain will be possible tonight through Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, drier and slightly warmer air will move into Central MT. Some light freezing rain is possible at KGTF and KCTB late tonight before precipitation ends Friday morning. Most of the precipitation should fall as snow, but as warmer air moves in aloft, some of the precipitation could fall as freezing rain. No winter highlights will be issued either at this time, but should the higher QPF amounts look more likely, a winter highlight/increased POPS might be needed. As warmer air moves back into the area on Friday, afternoon highs will average about 4 to 8 degrees above normal.
I did warm highs a few degrees W of I-35 tomorrow with the 925mb-850mb thermal ridge gradient and area of strongest low level WAA.
443 PM MST Thu Jan 5 2023 The west coast trough will move inland tonight, and cross Colorado on Friday. There's plenty of mid and high level moisture ahead of the trough to keep our skies mostly cloudy. While this system has the moisture, neither the lift nor the lower level winds are that strong, which will limit the snow accumulations in our mountains. A disjointed combination of the trough axis and a backdoor cold front could provide a few showers on the plains Friday afternoon or evening, but for now we'll only have some isolated PoPs near the northern foothills and Wyoming border.
930 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 The passage of a trough brings mostly light rain and snow to the region tonight into Friday night, with snow accumulation of up to a couple of inches on the ridges.
323 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 H5 analysis this morning has a closed low in the vicinity of Dubuque Iowa with a trough extending down the Mississippi River into eastern Louisiana. West of this feature, a high amplitude ridge extended from the Four Corners, north-northwest into northeastern British Columbia. West of this feature, a closed low was located approximately 400 miles off the coast of central Oregon. A trough extended south-southeast of this feature to off the coast of central and southern California. At the surface, high pressure was anchored over eastern Colorado, western Kansas and the Nebraska Panhandle.
Hoenisch Scattered snow showers or light freezing rain will be possible tonight through Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, drier and slightly warmer air will move into Central MT. Most of the precipitation should fall as snow, but as warmer air moves in aloft, some of the precipitation could fall as freezing rain. No winter highlights will be issued either at this time, but should the higher QPF amounts look more likely, a winter highlight/increased POPS might be needed. As warmer air moves back into the area on Friday, afternoon highs will average about 4 to 8 degrees above normal.
Aloft, our remains remains in a generally zonal flow through the evening as a trough lifts off to the northeast. Tonight, northwest flow aloft gradually returns as weak ridging builds into the area from the west and then settles over the area on Friday. At the surface, high pressure continues to move into the region from the west through tonight, and then settles over our area by early Friday and through the rest of the period. Based on the aforementioned pattern, much drier air and cooler weather is expected through Friday.
727 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 High pressure keeps the forecast dry through the weekend with temperatures lingering near seasonal norms for early January.
747 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 Light precipitation possible through tonight with the passage of a cold front. Some light snow flurries or sprinkles possible on Friday before high pressure briefly builds in Friday night and dries us out.
650 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 A cold front will move east and well offshore tonight.
A semi-stationary area of low pressure will be present between coastal Pacific Northwest and the Gulf of Alaska during the next 10 days (and perhaps longer). This low pressure circulation will periodically produce breaking atmospheric waves west of the Northern Rockies, with intermittent snow showers and bouts of light wintry mix materializing over portions of the region. Surface winds will be mostly under 10 knots, however some south wind gusts to 30 knots will be present over the ridges.
935 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 The passage of a trough brings mostly light rain and snow to the region tonight into Friday night, with snow accumulation of up to a couple of inches on the ridges.
Snow above 6500 ft from the Southern Sawtooth/South Hills region east and then north to the Big Hole Range could see as high as 5-8" at ridge tops. The Bear River Range now supports 8-12" at pass level, while the rest of the high elevation roadways remain in the 3-5" totals over the next 36 hrs. This would fall within borderline Advisory criteria, but believe the longer duration of the event and best accumulations above pass level to be mitigating factors, also taking into account that these moisture levels are falling at the high end of the percentile range. Return of high pressure will allow for the development of low clouds and fog, as we have seen between several of the recent prior systems.
Thereafter, weak low pressure over the Plains will slowly traverse the region over the weekend.
1242 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 Light precipitation possible through tonight with the passage of a cold front. Some light snow flurries or sprinkles possible on Friday before high pressure briefly builds in Friday night and dries us out.
Early morning water vapor and IR satellite imagery are showing a band of moisture and clouds moving through southern Florida along the recent cold front boundary, with drier air filling into the Florida Peninsula from the north. This cooler and drier airmass will lead to temperatures maxing out in the upper 60s to mid 70s this afternoon. High pressure will then remain in control through the weekend, with temperatures gradually trending warmer again.
Cloud cover will start to return Friday, ahead of an approaching warm front. High temperatures Friday will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s, with the higher temps seen across SW AR.
1124 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 The weather remains clear and quiet this evening under high pressure. At the surface, high pressure will keep conditons quiet with light winds through early Saturday before pushing off to the east. With the snow covered ground, "warmer" air, and light winds, we continue the trend of patchy/areas of fog possible again overnight into early Friday. RAP/NAM Bufkit soundings across the CWA indicate the low level moisture(Sfc-900mb) with short term hi-res models indicating a lowering of visibility during this time. It has been noted that the low level moisture has resided in the dendritic growth zone near the surface. Also, just above the saturated lower levels, is much drier air (due to the high).
There is some apparent cross channeling PVA rounding the base of the mean upper trof this afternoon.
A clearing trend, and dry weather seems likely for Saturday night as mid-level ridging briefly visits.
Enjoyment from the sunny high pressure will be limited. Low temperatures will mostly range from the low to mid 30s, but a few areas in southern Indiana and the bluegrass region could see the upper 20s.
Lows tonight will be in the low 40s for most locations with some upper 30s in south-central Georgia and Southeast Alabama. (Through Friday) High pressure will nestle into the region allowing dry weather to prevail. Temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the upper 30s and low 40s fore SE AL and SW GA and in the low to mid 40s for our FL counties. (Friday night through Saturday night) The upper level trough that brought much of the severe weather yesterday is expected to exit the conus by Friday night. As this occurs, brief upper level ridging is expected to push into the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure is expected to settle into the southeast, and is expected to remain over the southeast through Saturday night. Overall, with high pressure settling into the region, expect rather fair weather through Saturday night.
357 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 High pressure will build into the area this afternoon and remain into Saturday.
1044 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 (Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley late this evening, with high pressure building in behind the mid/upper trough that pushed across the area earlier today. A cooler, drier air mass has settled into the area as seen in dewpoints which have dropped into the mid to upper 20s. However, thanks to a steeper pressure gradient in place from the departing trough, winds have remained in the 5-10 kt range, keeping the boundary layer mixed. Expect these winds will begin to weaken after Midnight as high pressure really begins to nose in and as a result lows will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s by early Friday morning.
(Today) Expect a warm and windy day today in advance of a cold front set to move through the area tonight and into tomorrow as an upper low pushes into the Central Plains.
Models are struggling with the low level RH forecast, and rapid-refresh guidance is simulating unrealistic disparities between forecast hours zero and one. The lowest visibilities as of now are 3 and 4 miles. This will continue into tonight, with high pressure building back in from the west, allowing fog to once again form overnight across all the west and central.
Would like to see better moisture depths & cooler h850 temperatures for increasing PoP chances, so will cap the chances at 20%. Morning lows in the lower 30s rise slightly into the mid 30s for an afternoon high today.
340 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over lower MI with a ridge over the Rockies and a trough on the west coast.
Upper cirrus will slowly spread eastward through the morning, and could stabilize the spread of this lower stratus/fog. NAM/RAP 925:900 CPD plots would suggest this area of fog/stratus will continue to drop southward through the day, likely reaching the Highway 14 corridor by mid-day. Have bumped up temperatures a bit higher, with even the CMC (which tends to handle radiational cooling over fresh snow better than other models) now favoring warmer lows. SATURDAY: Mid-lvl flow remains rather weak and chaotic as a series of upper level troughs moves through the mid/lower Missouri river valley.
107 AM MST Fri Jan 6 2023 Through Tonight: NW flow will prevail over the region -- on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge (situated over the Intermountain West/Rockies) and far western periphery of an upper level low (lingering over the Great Lakes). Fri-Fri night: A complex upper level trough moving ashore the Pacific Coast today will progress eastward into the Intermountain West tonight. supplanting the aforementioned ridge aloft.
with low pressure developing to the west over the TX/OK Panhandles. A cold front will push east across the state Sat afternoon and night. Cooler and more stable air will arrive behind the front late Sat night.
210 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over lower MI with a ridge over the Rockies and a trough on the west coast. Negative 500mb vorticity advection from an approaching short ridge will provide the subsidence to dry out any remaining snow showers.
Expect a small chance for this light snow to persist through the morning before tapering off of this weak waves moves on and the broad upper ridge dominates once again. Winds will be slightly breezy along the foothills west of Billings, but overall remarkably low for being under ridging and having a pressure gradient (albeit, a weak one) set up over south-central MT.
(Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley late this evening, with high pressure building in behind the mid/upper trough that pushed across the area earlier today. A cooler, drier air mass has settled into the area as seen in dewpoints which have dropped into the mid to upper 20s. However, thanks to a steeper pressure gradient in place from the departing trough, winds have remained in the 5-10 kt range, keeping the boundary layer mixed. Expect these winds will begin to weaken after Midnight as high pressure really begins to nose in and as a result lows will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s by early Friday morning.
(Today through Saturday) This AM at the surface, a cold front is present to the SE of AL from a low pressure system over the W Atlantic extending SW into S FL and the SE Gulf of Mexico. The ridge center will slowly nudge EWD through the short term toward the GA/SC coast by late Saturday.
A ridge of high pressure will rebuild over the NR through much of Saturday.
1048 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) Key Messages: -Patchy fog possible early Friday and Saturday morning -Small Craft Advisory Conditions possible Friday night into Saturday morning High pressure will continue to shift eastward this afternoon.
A large upper level trof exists early this morning across the Great Basin. This flow and downstream across our area, will result in the development of a weak low pressure center across SW Kansas today. As the low develops, a weak warm front will also develop with a bit of downsloping south of this front. Otherwise, the UL trof will start to swing out east this afternoon and tonight, with a resultant passage of a weak cold front is expected by then. Cooler highs are expected Saturday in the wake of the front.
1133 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 00Z upper air analysis and GOES-16 Water Vapor Satellite trends depict an upper level trough over the Eastern United States, an upper level ridge axis over the Rockies, and and elongated trough axis along the West coast of the United States. Meanwhile, a 1025 mb ridge of high pressure centered over the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma is bringing clear skies to the Mid-South this evening. A cold front will move through Friday night into Saturday bringing showers to the area.
A few of the cooler spots could hit freezing, but the rest of the area should still be cold enough at the surface for some frost or frozen dew to develop. Dew points are closer to 40 in the Highway 84 corridor to the south, so dew or frozen dew might be the most likely there. /NF/ Tonight and Friday: Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis still had our CWA at the base of an upper level trough emanating from a closed low centered over the Great Lakes region. The closed low will open up as it shifts east and moves over the New England states by Friday evening. Friday our flow aloft will become near zonal as the upper level trough shifts east off the east coast.
With colder air filtering in from the north, highs later today should rise mainly in the lower 50s, with light winds.
Relatively tight pressure gradient over the area begins to loosen by the afternoon hours as the high pressure center builds closer. Ridging building from the Gulf will begin to advect warmer air into the region tonight.
Clouds will increase through the day and keep temperatures in the 30s to the north, but warmer south where snow pack will not be a factor.
Temperatures also look to moderate even more with freezing precipitation less likely to occur as well. Below are the percent chances for receiving at least two inches of snow for key locations: *Stevens Pass = 84% *Wenatchee = 15% *Winthrop = 77% *Omak = 57% *Republic = 81% *Colville = 32% *Sandpoint = 23% The Highway 2 corridor across the northern basin and into the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene corridor will most likely experience non- accumulating snow or just a dusting.
1008 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 Light precipitation possible through tonight with the passage of a cold front. Some light snow flurries or sprinkles possible on Friday before high pressure briefly builds in Friday night and dries us out.
1205 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 High pressure keeps the forecast dry through the weekend with temperatures lingering near seasonal norms for early January.
109 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 An upper level low will track through the southern portion of the Great Lakes and bring scattered rain and snow showers to the region through early Friday. The upper low centered over the Great Lakes will track east and then northeast on Friday. Given the warmer temperatures of late, surfaces are above freezing and roads are only wet. Drier weather returns for Saturday with high pressure over the northern Plains.
120 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will reside over the area through Saturday.