Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
931 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A cold front separating areas of high pressure will push through today. Cooler and breezy conditions will follow for tonight and Thursday, with a warming trend forecast for the weekend. This afternoon, a few isolated showers or thunderstorms may occur as a cold front passes south into a dry airmass that will greatly limit the potential for measurable precipitation. Northeast winds 10-20 mph with higher gusts will usher in cooler and drier air overnight.
These systems will combine to drive a dry FROPA southward across the Ohio River Valley and into north and central GA by Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, reinforced by another developing system off the east FL coast at the base of a longwave trough.
525 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A crossing cold front may spark a few isolated showers or thunderstorm this afternoon and evening.
657 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A strong cold front moves through SE Mi during the morning marked by wind shifting sharply NE and becoming gusty. The inbound air mass is much cooler and also very dry evidenced by the rapid clearing trend that develops quickly during the afternoon. Light NW wind turns sharply NE by 14Z as a strong cold front moves through the DTW terminal area. Main forecast item for this forecast remains the cold front and resulting temperature drop. If gradient winds do ease some degree tonight, it would allow for temperatures to fall closer to freezing. Today's cold front and passing mid level trough will mark the transition to a greater longwave amplification for the late week period that eventually evolves into a blocking pattern through the holiday weekend.
(Now through Thursday) Upper level troughing remains situated across the southeastern U. At the surface, residual CAD'ing across the Carolinas continues to infiltrate the area through this afternoon and evening helping to keep temperatures much cooler. The cold front associated with this has become more diffuse this morning but has largely shifted offshore at this point. By tonight, a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air comes in from the northeast thanks to the aforementioned CAD, allowing for temperatures and dewpoints to fall appreciably into Thursday morning. Thursday will be much drier with skies gradually clearing allowing for temperatures to warm amply into the lower to middle 80's.
An upper level trough settled over the West Coast and will linger through Thursday.
Isolated thunderstorms continue near the low center over the Sacramento Valley, but their trend has been weakening over the past hour or so as they move south of the Sutter Buttes. Onshore flow ahead of the low has brought significant cooling - most areas are currently running about 5-15 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago and are in the 50s to mid 60s across the Central Valley. The trough will remain over the area through the remainder of the week keeping temperatures close to average for the end of May.
708 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A crossing cold front may spark a few isolated showers or thunderstorm this afternoon and evening.
A deep marine layer and strong onshore flow will maintain cooler conditions across the region through late week.
A more typical dry, late May pattern has set up across the Desert Southwest as a slow progressing upper level trough remains situated over the Pacific NW. Temperatures are expected to be stubbornly persistent over the next several days with highs topping out in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees in the lower deserts and lower to middle 80s in the higher terrain.
705 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler Today and Thursday.
442 AM PDT Wed May 24 2023 Night and morning clouds will persist before giving way to mostly sunny afternoons through the remainder of the week in response to an upper level trough over the West Coast. (Today and tonight) A broad mid/upper level trough remains positioned over the West Coast with the core of the low pressure system over eastern Oregon.
A back door cold front pushing through central IL during this afternoon and evening, will bring breezy northeast winds and cooler temperatures for a few days.
Night and morning clouds will persist before giving way to mostly sunny afternoons through the remainder of the week in response to an upper level trough over the West Coast. (Today and tonight) A broad mid/upper level trough remains positioned over the West Coast with the core of the low pressure system over eastern Oregon.
208 AM PDT Wed May 24 2023 Temperatures will trend cooler to near seasonal averages through the week.
(Rest of Today) A weak area of high pressure remains in place from the Mid Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley, which is helping to promote mostly clear and dry weather across our area this morning. A light northeast breeze will help to keep temperatures in check somewhat, but plentiful sunshine will still warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s.
Surface analysis this afternoon still shows a weak cold front draped over the eastern Dakotas, over SW Minnesota and into NE Iowa and northern IL. While rain showers have showed up on KMPX radar in northeastern portions of the WFO MPX coverage area, few to none of them have reached the surface with much drier air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Overall, the front will continue sagging south tonight, bringing cooler and more stable air into the area, including having skies clear out through the evening and overnight hours. With the front south of MN/WI overnight into tomorrow, the center of high pressure behind the front will shift slightly south from the southern tip of Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes.
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Wed May 24 2023/ An unstable south/southwesterly flow aloft resides over the Northern Rockies this morning courtesy of west coast troughing. Ensembles remain in good agreement with persistent troughing over the Pacific Northwest maintaining this weather pattern for at least the remainder of the workweek.
Otherwise the rest of the short term forecast looks to be quiet as rain chances begin a slow downward trend via the slowly building mid/upper ridge from the west. High temperatures for Thurs will be a tiny bit warmer.
Warmer temperatures have started to edge into southeastern ND, but the main instability axis is still to the west of our counties.
449 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 An unseasonably chilly airmass will move into the region tonight with an accompanying Canadian high pressure system ensuring that temperatures will remain below normal through the end of the work week. Showers have exited over eastern NY as expansive high pressure centered near James Bay will circulate progressively cooler and drier air southwards into our region.
Heading further up the Lower Keys, rainfall amounts taper off quickly. Water vapor imagery highlights the broad cyclonic flow provided by a mid to upper level trough moving through the Gulf of Mexico. This trough has provided us with ample instability and good upper divergence, which has allowed for frequent lightning within these storms.
1057 AM MDT Wed May 24 2023 All in all it looks like more of the same across the area as the dominant feature in the weather continues to be an upper level low over Washington State that continues the moist southwest flow over the area, bringing a continuous feed of Pacific moisture into the area.
The pattern continue to be dominated by the upper level trough, that will begin deepening into tomorrow, and a surface boundary extending from a low pressure system located in the Gulf of Mexico. Tomorrow the upper level trough deepens even further over the state allowing for 500mb temperatures to drop even lower, increasing the possibility for large hail. By the weekend, more dry air will be dragged into the area by the low pressure system in the Atlantic as it moves towards the Carolina coast.
848 AM PDT Wed May 24 2023 Night and morning clouds will persist before giving way to mostly sunny afternoons through the remainder of the week in response to an upper level trough over the West Coast.
315 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A dry, backdoor cold front will cross the area Thursday morning.
High pressure will remain in control of area weather today, tonight, and tomorrow(for the most part). In fact, we may even see a few showers and storms fire along the high terrain along the Virgina border late in the day Thursday, as some sort of boundary moves south through the area, and pushes existing moisture up the hills and mountains to our east. High temperatures today are still expected to be slightly above normal, with max values in the lower 80s on tap for this afternoon. Thursday looks to a cooler day, due to the passage of the boundary we keeping mentioning, with lower 70s forecast along and north of I-64 and the mid to upper 70s south of there.
300 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A crossing cold front may spark a few isolated showers or thunderstorm this afternoon and evening.
1258 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 The region remains under a mid-level ridge, sandwiched between two troughs along each coast. Through the day the trough along the East Coast will dig southward. In the lower levels moisture will advect northwestward into the forecast area, but will be squashed to the west by dry air moving south with the push of the mid-level trough. At the surface a cold front will push southwestward through the forecast area, bringing cooler, dry air into the forecast area. Most of the forecast area will be in the mid to upper 70s, near normal, while central and southeast Missouri will remain seasonally warm with temperatures in the low 80s.
12Z sounding observations support mixing in the lower levels (roughly around 930 mb). Dry air wraps around the base of upper trough, which will keep skies fairly clear, allowing temperatures to warm into the middle 80s despite northerly flow. Thursday, a dry cold front sags south, with even drier air filtering in the wake.
217 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A crossing cold front may spark a few isolated showers or thunderstorm this afternoon and evening.
(Tonight through Thursday night) An upper level ridge will slide into the region tonight and build into the weekend.
243 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Broad troughing and drying high pressure will keep temperatures below normal under partly cloudy skies over the next few days.
A trough will be anchored over western CONUS with a broad southwesterly flow ahead of it over the Rockies and plains.
Despite the frontal passage, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer thanks to mostly sunny skies.
A deep marine layer and strong onshore flow will maintain cooler conditions across the region through late week. A persistent trough along the West Coast will maintain a deep marine layer across coast and valleys with variable amounts of afternoon clearing. This is a common scenario this time of year, often referred to as May Gray, as the higher sun angle produces significant warming across the western interior while ocean temperatures remain chilly, generally around 60.
ARS An isolated shower or storm is possible across northern parts of the Mid-South this afternoon otherwise expect dry and seasonable temperatures with highs in the lower 80s.
142 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A cold front separating areas of high pressure will push through today. Cooler and breezy conditions will follow for tonight and Thursday, with a warming trend forecast for the weekend. This afternoon, a few isolated showers or thunderstorms may occur as a cold front passes south into a dry airmass that will greatly limit the potential for measurable precipitation. Northeast winds 10-20 mph with higher gusts will usher in cooler and drier air overnight.
236 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A dry, backdoor cold front will cross the area Thursday morning.
118 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 An unseasonably chilly airmass will move into the region tonight with an accompanying Canadian high pressure system ensuring that temperatures will remain below normal through the end of the work week. as expansive high pressure centered near James Bay will circulate progressively cooler and drier air southwards in to our region.
220 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Tonight, the cold front will continue to move southwestward into the MO River Valley region with a dry high pressure building into the region from the Great Lakes. Thursday, dry easterly winds at 10 to 20 MPH will continue, which will keep temperatures much cooler than those today.
HREF probabilistic data shows that this area (along and northwest of I-44) has the highest probability of getting some scattered convection this afternoon (25-45 percent coverage), but quickly diminishes during the early to mid evening hours. Very little to no shear in the atmosphere with weak wind fields for much of the atmosphere as upper ridging was located over much of the central CONUS.
1215 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler Today and Thursday.
Widespread, tranquil weather conditions have settled across northern Arizona this morning as a longwave trough digs into California and Nevada. A trough digs southward through California but remains to our west, which keep us on the left side of a ridge.
148 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Strong cold front will continue to push further southward across the northern Ohio Valley into this evening, with gusty northeasterly flow in its wake across the region around 25 knots at times. Main forecast item for this forecast remains the cold front and resulting temperature drop. If gradient winds do ease some degree tonight, it would allow for temperatures to fall closer to freezing. Today's cold front and passing mid level trough will mark the transition to a greater longwave amplification for the late week period that eventually evolves into a blocking pattern through the holiday weekend.
406 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 High pressure will build from the north through Thursday. A coastal low pressure system will affect the area late week into the weekend. Weak high pressure will then build in. Broad mid to upper-level troughing will continue to dig into the Southeast U. Large-scale forcing offshore associated with the upper trough will spawn convection across the outer marine waters tonight mainly beyond 20 nm. Cloud coverage will increase overnight as another broad area of low pressure gradually develops from the "top-down" on the eastern flank of the upper trough offshore, which will advect Atlantic deep moisture toward the coast.
1134 AM PDT Wed May 24 2023 Night and morning clouds will persist before giving way to mostly sunny afternoons through the remainder of the week in response to an upper level trough over the West Coast.
115 PM PDT Wed May 24 2023 Temperatures fall to near average for the next few days before warming up Memorial Day weekend into the lower 90s. While the high and fast flow of Central California rivers remain a high concern, cooler conditions are now upon us to slow the amount of snow-melt. Ensemble model analysis is showing minimal error in the short- term with maintaining a trough pattern over the area over the next few days. While Central California remains under the trough pattern, temperatures will struggle to reach the 90 degree mark.
(Now through Thursday) Upper level troughing remains situated across the southeastern U. At the surface, a very weak inverted trough embedded in a southeastern ridge will move from east to west across the area tonight and Thursday. Thursday will be much drier with skies gradually clearing allowing for temperatures to warm amply into the lower to middle 80's.
(This evening through Thursday night) A mid level short wave trough moving through north-central New Mexico will move through the ridge present over the Panhandles tonight. However, there are some indications that another round of thunderstorms may move into the Panhandles from the west in association with another short wave trough moving this way from eastern New Mexico.
The main issue at hand is the expected development of low pressure off the coast which will certainly cause an increase in winds and seas, especially over the coastal waters.
227 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A cold front currently pushing through the area is bringing rain showers across Central NY. Drier conditions will begin tomorrow as high pressure builds into the area, and a warming trend is expected heading into the Memorial Day weekend. A cold front pushing southward into the area is bringing rain showers across Central NY. Cooler temperatures of high-50s/low-60s expected for tomorrow, with accompanying gusty northerly winds. High pressure will begin to build back into the area again, so dry conditions are expected.
22 (Now through Thursday) Upper level troughing remains situated across the southeastern U. At the surface, residual CAD'ing across the Carolinas continues to infiltrate the area through this afternoon and evening helping to keep temperatures much cooler. The cold front associated with this has become more diffuse this morning but has largely shifted offshore at this point. By tonight, a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air comes in from the northeast thanks to the aforementioned CAD, allowing for temperatures and dewpoints to fall appreciably into Thursday morning. Thursday will be much drier with skies gradually clearing allowing for temperatures to warm amply into the lower to middle 80's.
Issued by National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 235 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 High pressure over Canada shifts south into the Great Lakes region today sending a backdoor cold front into the Ohio Valley. Expect some relief from the warm conditions we had today with highs on Thursday in the low to mid 70s. High pressure remains in control as we head into the weekend before starting to shift off to the east with a low over the SE US retrograding into the TN Valley. Winds will stay out of the N/NE keeping cooler temps and lower humidity over the region through the weekend.
243 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 High pressure situated off to the northeast will keep the forecast area warm and dry today with temperatures climbing into the upper- 70s to low-80s. A dry cold front extends across the southern Great Lakes which will gradually track southward during the day.
No significant precipitation is expected through the weekend as weak upper ridge builds into the region.
As clouds clear and winds go calm overnight, a few of the high-res models are indicating a possibility of at least patchy fog developing in the major river basins and valley locations.
243 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Short Term/Aviation/Marine The cold front will passing the region will keep temperatures cooler. The winds will remain gusty for the first half of the overnight period but as the frost moves southward and the high builds and the cold pool build the sfc will decouple. A cooler but dry day is in storm tomorrow. The biggest TAF concern will be when the winds decouple and the Low Level jet that will move over portions of lower Michigan overnight. The cold front passage will keep winds gusty through the daytime before the SFC temps drop enough, between 00Z to 03Z.
The environment will be favorable for numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms as a mid to upper level trough traverses across the region. Have kept well above normal rain chances as the trough pushes through the Florida Keys through the next few periods. Decided to nudge thunder chances up for tonight and tomorrow since we have seen such an excess of lightning today due to the upper level divergence caused by the trough. Moisture will begin to taper off as the mid to upper level trough moves eastward.
In response to this, radiational cooling should help cool the atmosphere with overnight lows forecasted to drop into the low 60s across the region.
1242 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 (Today through Thursday) 500mb ridge strengthens through Thursday with the atmosphere over South Texas continuing to dry-out. Mid-Upper northwest subsidence flow east of the ridge axis persist over our region with pwats to bottom out around 1.
Similar to today, diurnally driven showers/storms are expected develop after 11AM and expand in coverage on Thursday with-in the higher precipitable water axis which will be situated over central/south central Kansas. Meanwhile current satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level trough across the western states with some embedded waves rotating through the upper level trough.
The upper level low advecting moisture from the south is continuing to meander it's way down into Oregon. Dry air around the circulation of the low will keep most of the showers and thunderstorms to the southeast of Boise and the West Central Mountains. An upper level trough will remain stalled over the western US through the short-term, maintaining fairly consistent weather conditions through the short-term.
Otherwise, another pleasant night is in store as temperatures slowly fall back into the lower to mid 60s for overnight lows with clouds largely diminishing in coverage after midnight. This has kept dew points in the lower to mid 60s range and consequently maintained comfortable humidity levels. The temperature pattern is expected to repeat again on Thursday night with lows bottoming out in the lower to mid 60s with cloud cover largely diminishing once again.
Temperatures will be mild tonight, with lows in the 60s, and highs on Thursday in the low to mid 80s.
Omega block pattern responsible for the stretch of warm, dry weather will begin to break down as deep troughing develops over the Northeast and a cut off low develops over the Mid-south and Southeast over the next few days. At the surface, a reinforcing shot of high pressure and relatively cooler air dives southward later today and tonight, with the high becoming centered over the Great Lakes region. Northerly winds will also usher in cooler air with 850mb temperatures falling from around 12-14C Wednesday to 5-7C by Thursday afternoon. Post frontal environment will be cooler with forecast soundings showing much lower mixing heights for Thursday.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows troughing over the West Coast and ridging over the Plains, with a steady stream of deep Pacific moisture in between these two features stretching from the Great Basin northward through central Canada. Mature convection is ongoing over the Bighorns and near the higher terrain of southern WY. At the surface, a trough extends north-to-south in the lee of the Rockies from eastern CO northward into AB/SK. Axis of best instability extends through eastern WY and far western SD in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface trof, which could act as a focus for increased convergence and convective organization later this afternoon into the evening. However, the trof axis shifts eastward slightly, and based on the RAP Smoke model, smoke concentrations could decrease.
101 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Broad troughing and drying high pressure will keep temperatures below normal under partly cloudy skies over the next few days.
203 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023 Satellite imagery shows an amplified trof from WA to CA and southerly flow over the central and northern Rockies. Bulk shear is lowest in our east, but there is some enhanced low level shear east of surface trof extending from Rosebud to Sheridan Counties. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above normal, but highs on Thursday will be a little cooler than today (70s to lower 80s. At the surface, high pressure centered over the eastern US should facilitate southeasterly flow across the central US that transports moist air in the lower levels to our area.
An upper level trough is over the western part of the country with upper ridging over the Central Plains.