Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WV imagery shows weak upper ridging over the western CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under northwest flow aloft. Sunday, a trough digging into the MS Valley will drop a weak cold front into the region, just enough to decrease thicknesses and shave a few degrees off of today's highs.
(Tonight) Dry conditions are expected to persist through the evening as clear skies are ongoing in the wake of a cold front tied to low pressure located to our north. Despite northerly flow, the increase in clouds will limit radiational cooling and overnight lows will bottom out in the low 50s to upper 40s especially in higher terrain. Gradient winds will continue in wake of the cold front, with breezy conditions persisting into the morning hours.
Temps tonight will range from the upper 20s in KBHK to the lower 40s in the foothills. Upper ridging builds in for Sunday and Sun.
905 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Temperatures will rise, or have risen, above freezing very shortly so the Freeze Warning has been allowed to expire. Despite passing high level clouds across the region tonight, temperatures are running 5-10 degrees cooler now than they were 24 hours ago. High pressure remains in control across eastern Utah and western Colorado today. Some moisture from the Pacific will work through the flow around the ridge, which means the potential for some passing clouds through the day today. Despite clear skies expected once again tonight, the warm air advection associated with the ridge will help overnight lows moderate a bit. This will limit the threat of widespread freezing temperatures.
A subtle upper-level trough is moving across the Northern Rockies this afternoon and evening, but little more than broken high clouds and a few isolated showers are expected in the high elevations of Yellowstone National Park and the Absaroka Range.
A decaying cold front is slowly marching southward across the extreme southern end of mainland Florida and the Florida Keys. This initial front will not bring much in the way of an air mass change as overnight lows tonight will be in the lower 80s with dew points holding in the upper 70s. Thereafter, a stronger cold front currently situated near the mouth of the Mississippi River will surge southeast thanks to an Arctic High sweeping down from Saskatchewan and western Ontario. This high will successfully push not only this secondary front but also a considerable air mass change, albeit temporary, starting Sunday night.
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight) A broad upper level low over the Ohio Valley continues to move eastwards. Meanwhile, a weak secondary upper level low is merging with the main upper low, acting to amplify the trough on the backside as it does so. The longwave trough will continue to spin across the eastern US on Sunday. Breezy northerly winds will begin to weaken overnight, but may not totally cease, which will have implications for the low temperature forecast.
The first in a series of upper lows will drift off to the east of the Quad State this afternoon; however, a smaller (more compact) upper low is forecast to slide across Nebraska this afternoon and directly over the entire Quad State area Sunday morning.
Further upstream, amplified ridging will gradually fold over the Rockies and central Canada. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build over the western half of the CONUS underneath aforementioned ridging while a cyclone treks off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Forecast Details: Breezy northeast winds will gradually turn to north-northwest with time tonight as the Great Lakes lies between previously mentioned low pressure to our southeast and high pressure to our west. Classic trough, ridge, trough configuration across North America to start the period. An expanding upper level ridge to our west is expected to buckle the trough a bit on Sunday with a short wave rotating southward toward northern Michigan Sunday afternoon.
While early afternoon satellite imagery shows a quasi-zonal flow pattern over the SW Conus between deep negative PV anomalies situated across the northeast Pacific and eastern Conus, pronounced ridging over south-central Canada will begin linking to subtropical high pressure in the Southwest over the next 24 hours. As a result, high amplitude and anomalously strong ridging with H5 heights in excess of 590dm (or nearing the 99th percentile of climatology) will quickly become established over the forecast area. This ridging pattern will cause temperatures to warm at least 6F-12F above the daily normal beginning tomorrow, equating to many lower desert communities once again flirting with the 100F mark.
Cloudy skies will continue to develop through the day with a fairly moist layer above 15000 feet and warmer air moving in from the south west. Winds gusting at 20-35 kt are expected in the Shasta Valley and Klamath Basin, as well as along ridgetops tomorrow afternoon.
1003 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 An upper-level low near is located near Chicago this morning while latest surface analysis places an occluding cold front from Central Indiana back through Middle Tennessee and Southern Mississippi. CJC Much cooler temperatures will filter into the region on gusty northwest winds today.
However, a developing low pressure system across the eastern US will bring about a northwesterly flow aloft. We are confident that little will change with the forecast as we will largely remain cool and dry following yesterday's cold front.
(This evening through Sunday night) A cold front is passing through the area this afternoon and on into the coastal waters.
1150 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 (Today through Sunday) A cold front has moved south of South-Central Texas early this morning with drier and cooler air streaming into the area. Highs this afternoon will be around 8-12 degrees cooler than yesterday, ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. For Sunday, expect mainly clear skies and even cooler temperatures from the low 70s to low 80s depending on location.
The moisture layer becomes increasingly shallow tomorrow and with the majority of the low-level lift occurring below this shallow layer, the chance for additional light drizzle/sprinkles is lower than today but not zero. Temperatures will peak Sunday about 15 degrees below normal and a few degrees cooler than today.
Temps have risen nicely since sunrise, with affected areas now at or well above freezing. Latest satellite imagery shows lingering stratus over the eastern portion of the CWA as the low pressure system finally moves out of the area. High temperatures for the day will be a little warmer than yesterday in the 50s but with overall lighter winds randing from 10-20 mph with the strongest over the east.
Upper ridge builds over the western CONUS tonight and continues to build through the short term forecast period. Meanwhile, the upper low/trough that brought the rainfall to the area the last couple of days amplifies over the lower Great Lakes and into the mid Atlantic states through the weekend.
1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 (Today through Sunday night) As the main upper low transitions east, northwesterly flow will begin for the short term period. Surface temperature will drop to the 30's across most of the High Plains, and sub-freezing temperatures are likely for areas in the northwest Panhandles. Sunday morning, there is the potential for low temperatures to meet the freezing level once again, but there are enough disparities between short term guidance that may lean against another freeze.
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through the coming week providing warm weather and generally light winds except for some north breezes at times along the lower Colorado River Valley.
On Sunday, a cold front associated with a low over the Great Lakes and an attendant upper level trough will drop through the Florida peninsula.
1133 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Upper level ridging continues to build in across the CWA with increasing convergence aloft through the upper Rockies.
High pressure will move in to start the week and temperatures will return to more seasonal norms with highs in the 60s.
With the strong northwesterly flow setting up we will also see a cooler airmass move in across the region.
Through Sunday: Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows closed upper level low slowly moving over northern Indiana. while clouds continue to wrap around the closed upper level low into much of the area per the latest visible satellite imagery. The forecast area will remain under the influence of the closed upper level low tonight into Sunday. cooler airmass filters into the region and temperatures are expected to remain slightly below normal Sunday. There appears to be a break in the low level moisture with surface winds decoupling.
An upper level disturbance is predicted to move across the Plains/Mississippi Valley tonight/early Sunday, which will contribute to a secondary surge of high pressure over the CWA late tonight/Sunday. This upper disturbance will contribute to the development of a highly meridional upper pattern by the end of the period, with an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, with a corresponding ridge axis across the Rockies.
Today will be quite breezy and much cooler thanks to unidirectional, 25-40 knot northerly flow occurring beneath a strong subsidence inversion. A secondary reinforcing surface front and strong surface ridging to the northwest will help to keep low level cold advection going.
338 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 (Issued 338 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023) Tonight through Sunday night: Light scattered showers and patchy drizzle are continuing across much of southern Wisconsin, with coverage expected to continue to diminish into tonight as the low pressure systems slowly exits. Winds slowly shift to become north-northwest overnight as high pressure builds to the west, which looks to "push" the lake effect band offshore late tonight into Sunday morning. Low temperatures tonight will dip into the lower 40s, with highs Sunday in the low to mid-50s and lows Sunday night in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees.
Issued by National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 (Today through Sunday) Currently we have lots of clouds and drizzle out there this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Tonight we will see cold air stratus clouds build in from the north and keep temperatures in the low 50s, but we should remain dry. On Sunday, the cold air will be abundant and with decreasing clouds temperatures will only reach the low to mid 60s, with some upper 60s in the southeast.
Gusty winds particularly across the higher terrain of the Appalachians. Much colder Sunday in the wake of the cold front. Discussion: Closed low over the Ohio Valley this afternoon will help bring much cooler air to the surface behind a cold front. Strong westerly winds will continue into the afternoon and evening, especially across the higher terrain of the Appalachians. It will be noticeably cooler with daytime highs only warming into the 40s and 50s.
100 PM PDT Sat Oct 14 2023 High pressure will control the weather over the West Coast for the coming week with generally fair skies, warm days, and cool nights.
343 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2023 A quiet forecast period ahead w/ no major impacts as strong upper- level ridging gains control.
729 PM PDT Sat Oct 14 2023 High pressure will control the weather over the West Coast for the coming week with generally fair skies, warm days, and cool nights.
629 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler, Cloudy, Drizzle/Rain Tonight - Gradual Warm Up Through The Week Discussion: Deep H5 trough has moved over the Great Lakes Region as well as the attendant surface cyclone. The cold front is well into the southeast CONUS. The lower Missouri River Valley is still on the backside of the cyclonic flow. By tomorrow afternoon, NAM and RAP soundings are relatively dry in the lowest 2500ft which should bring an end to most drizzle if it is ongoing.
515 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 (Tonight) Dry conditions are expected to persist through the evening as clear skies are ongoing in the wake of a cold front tied to low pressure located to our north. Despite northerly flow, the increase in clouds will limit radiational cooling and overnight lows will bottom out in the low 50s to upper 40s especially in higher terrain. Gradient winds will continue in wake of the cold front, with breezy conditions persisting into the morning hours.
710 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023 A cold front crossing the region will bring much cooler and drier air to the area tonight.
603 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Cool surface ridging draped over the region this afternoon will remain largely unchanged tonight under northwest flow. NBM's lows tonight remain a bit too mild for what should be another strong radiational cooling event, so opted for a blend of the cooler bias- corrected guidance. However, this coverage of freezing temps currently looks too sparse for a freeze warning.
Additionally, low cloud cover is also anticipated to move from east to the west overnight as the periphery of the upper level low slides southeast the Central Plains. A quiet forecast period ahead w/ no major impacts as strong upper- level ridging gains control.
We remain in a solid low level CAA regime this evening in the wake of a cold front that passed across the area earlier today, though surface winds aren't quite as gusty as they were during the daytime hours. Strong high pressure will continue to build southeast into the region through Sunday. A cooler drier airmass will also continue to advect into the region during this time.
Lows tonight mostly in the lower 40s. Further upstream, amplified ridging will gradually fold over the Rockies and central Canada. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build over the western half of the CONUS underneath aforementioned ridging while a cyclone treks off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Forecast Details: Breezy northeast winds will gradually turn to north-northwest with time tonight as the Great Lakes lies between previously mentioned low pressure to our southeast and high pressure to our west. Classic trough, ridge, trough configuration across North America to start the period. An expanding upper level ridge to our west is expected to buckle the trough a bit on Sunday with a short wave rotating southward toward northern Michigan Sunday afternoon.
1017 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023 An area of low pressure will move off the East Coast tonight with rain showers ending across southern areas.
The longwave trough will continue to spin across the eastern US on Sunday. Breezy northerly winds will begin to weaken overnight, but may not totally cease, which will have implications for the low temperature forecast.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track with the cold front moving into the western Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama right now. Breezy northwest winds are expected on Sunday with highs ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s across Southeast AL and Southwest GA to the low/mid 70s across Florida.
Tonight will bring cold temperatures potentially reaching the freezing mark or colder over a significant portion of the area west of the highway 23 corridor (Dighton to Meade).
635 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 (This evening through Sunday night) A cold front is passing through the area this afternoon and on into the coastal waters.
As the incoming cold front passes tomorrow, rain chances will be near zero except for the far southern peninsula near the Keys. On Sunday, a cold front associated with a low over the Great Lakes and an attendant upper level trough will drop through the Florida peninsula.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s with dew points in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Currently, a pre-frontal trough is moving through the Florida Keys which is responsible for the ongoing showers. The actual cold front is draped from northeast to southwest from off the Southeastern United States coastline through north-central Florida into the east-central Gulf of Mexico to the Bay of Campeche. From synopsis, an early season cold front will approach the Keys on Sunday accompanied by fresh southwest to west breezes.
652 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Low pressure moving east across Ohio should quickly move to the Mid Atlantic coast this evening before pulling out to sea in the Atlantic.
632 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 (The rest of this afternoon and tonight) A broad upper level low over the Ohio Valley continues to move eastwards. Meanwhile, a weak secondary upper level low is merging with the main upper low, acting to amplify the trough on the backside as it does so. The longwave trough will continue to spin across the eastern US on Sunday. Breezy northerly winds will begin to weaken overnight, but may not totally cease, which will have implications for the low temperature forecast.
811 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Low pressure moving east across Ohio should quickly move to the Mid Atlantic coast this evening before pulling out to sea in the Atlantic.
818 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2023 A quiet forecast period ahead w/ no major impacts as strong upper- level ridging gains control.
526 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2023 A quiet forecast period ahead w/ no major impacts as strong upper- level ridging gains control.
The Northern Plains sit under an upper level deformation pattern early this afternoon, with longwave troughing to the east and west and longwave ridging to the north and southwest. At the surface, a meridional ridge axis extends from the Canadian prairie provinces to the Central High Plains. The placement of the cloud cover through the night will likely be the discriminating factor between low temperatures remaining above or falling below freezing.
901 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Low pressure will move east across the Maritimes through Sunday while another low tracks south of the region.
The weak upper level trough which crossed our area on Saturday left only traces of rain in the Treasure Valley and West Central Idaho Mountains. The upper level ridge remains anchored over the western U.
1049 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Low pressure moving east across Ohio should quickly move to the Mid Atlantic coast this evening before pulling out to sea in the Atlantic.
Short term models show 1031 mb surface ridging building south into SW KS through Sunday morning. Tonight will bring cold temperatures potentially reaching the freezing mark or colder over a significant portion of the area west of the highway 23 corridor (Dighton to Meade).
610 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Low pressure will move east across the Maritimes tonight through Sunday while another low tracks south of the region.
DDV (Issued 338 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023) Tonight through Sunday night: Light scattered showers and patchy drizzle are continuing across much of southern Wisconsin, with coverage expected to continue to diminish into tonight as the low pressure systems slowly exits. Winds slowly shift to become north-northwest overnight as high pressure builds to the west, which looks to "push" the lake effect band offshore late tonight into Sunday morning. Low temperatures tonight will dip into the lower 40s, with highs Sunday in the low to mid-50s and lows Sunday night in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees.
That said, deeper synoptic scale moisture will pivot back southwest into the region this afternoon into this evening as a significant lobe of vorticity drops through the central/eastern Great Lakes around the western periphery of an upper low pressure system over the northeast CONUS which actually retrogrades slightly to the west over the next 12-18 hours. Once this wave passes south of the region, the low level flow from Lake Huron will veer back to the north-northeast with continued lake effect rain shower activity funneling into the Thumb tonight into Monday morning. With the continuation of moisture flux into the area, skies will remain largely cloudy on Monday with high temperatures only reaching the lower 50s (much like Sunday).
(Tonight through Sunday) The upper level pattern becomes more amplified tonight, as ridging arches northward over the western CONUS and troughing digs southward east of the Plains. Pacific cold front has pushed through the forecast area with only scattered stratocu over the eastern counties this afternoon which will clear by sunset.
Cloud cover this morning is keeping temperatures a few degrees warmer than previously forecasted. This wave will continue to pump cooler temperatures into the area from the north. but we'll see another shot at light precip on Monday afternoon as another spoke of energy rotates around the upper trough.
Upper level high pressure will build into the area through Monday, bringing increasingly warm temperatures and tranquil, if cloudy, weather.
1213 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Low pressure will move east across the Maritimes through Sunday while another low tracks south of the region.
This is the southwestern limit of a large stratus shield around the upper low over the lower Missouri valley this morning.
This low stratus will mix and scatter into daytime cumulus across our eastern zones by this afternoon.
157 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 A cold front crossing the region will bring much cooler and drier air to the area tonight.
1253 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (Tonight through Sunday) The upper level pattern becomes more amplified tonight, as ridging arches northward over the western CONUS and troughing digs southward east of the Plains.
As we get into tomorrow, a larger, stronger trough will push southward out of the Great Lakes/eastern Canada region and bring with it additional cloud cover, VERY fall-like temperatures and even a shot at some light rain/drizzle over the next couple of days. At best, we're only talking a hundredth or two for a few spots, but coupled with the cooler temperatures and breezy conditions, you're gonna need a jacket.
A weak trough of low pressure will bring a slight chance of rain showers to the area on Sunday.
Banking on clouds and sfc winds, will go with low temps in the low to mid 40s for most areas. If it weren't for the clouds and winds, the air mass filtering into the area would support lows in the low to mid 30s tonight. H85 mb cool pool day and only a deep mix and maybe a few breaks in the cloud cover at times will help temps reach the fcst highs in the low to mid 50s. Other areas in the southeast may stay up in the lower 40s. But northerly flow in the low to mid levels aloft with some backing may actually warm air advect (WAA) overnight.
High pressure will build in towards midweek which will allow temperatures to warm closer to normal. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 40s with highs in the lower to mid 50s.
136 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 We remain in a solid low level CAA regime this evening in the wake of a cold front that passed across the area earlier today, though surface winds aren't quite as gusty as they were during the daytime hours. Strong high pressure will continue to build southeast into the region through Sunday. A cooler drier airmass will also continue to advect into the region during this time.
(Today through Monday) Upper level troughing deepens over the eastern states while upper level ridging builds over the western states resulting in a dry northwesterly flow aloft.
321 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Scattered showers are expected through early in the week under a trough of low pressure, and a cool northerly wind.
115 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 An area of low pressure will move off the East Coast tonight with rain showers ending across southern areas.
Low clouds will prevail tonight with secondary upper trof sliding southeast over the lower Missouri Valley. Expect better scouring/clearing of the low clouds as we head into Sunday afternoon though temperatures still well below climo.
(Today and tonight) Our area will have northwest flow aloft today and tonight, with an upper ridge extending from the Desert Southwest north to the Intermountain West, and a deep upper trough over the eastern part of the country. With indications of a reinforcement of cooler air today, temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday. Overnight lows will be mostly in the lower 40s, and may even have a few upper 30s in the most favored low-lying areas.