Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
212 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Cooler weather sticks around through the foreseeable future. * Cooler, fall-like weather is expected through the foreseeable future. An expansive area of low stratus tied to an upper trough/low is present over a good portion of the Midwest states early this morning.
Mid-level lapse rates are on the lower side, so not expecting storms to become strong or severe in nature. With high pressure moving into the area, expect coverage to remain isolated to scattered.
25 (Tonight through Friday night) High pressure continues to extend from the Atlantic into the southeastern states this afternoon.
Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate smoke from wildfires in Canada has advected all the way southward into the central plains, which has impacted visibilities and temperatures across our area as many locations are multiple degrees cooler than progged. HRRR near-surface smoke fields depict this smoke mixing out through the afternoon and early evening, however likely not in time for southwest KS to reach the current MaxT grid of mid/upper 80s to near 90, so expect a slightly cooler afternoon than previously forecast. Daytime Thursday, 500-mb heights will inch upward as upper level ridging builds over the southern plains/Desert Southwest.
1214 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) The area of 500mb high pressure currently centered over El Paso is gradually working its way back to the northeast, which will incite a noticeable impact on our temperatures tomorrow. For today however, temps are remaining cooler than forecast behind yesterday's front, keeping our highs a few degrees lower than previously forecast. Observed overnight lows this morning were also about 5 degrees cooler than forecast in the SW TX Panhandle. Thursday will be the hottest day of the week by far as the upper high regains influence over the area.
* As high pressure expands slowly westward, you can plan on generally dry conditions with periodic high clouds through the end of the work week. Daytime high temperatures for the lower valley areas will be in the mid to upper 80s, while the Sierra valleys reach toward the 70s. Overnight lows will remain seasonably cool, with values in the mid 40s to mid 50s for the lower valleys and 30s to 40s for the Sierra.
The post frontal air mass while cooler, is also moist with low clouds draped over the region.
(Today through Friday) A short wave trough is sitting off to our northwest with a cold front pushing into the northwest part of our area.
At the surface, a ridge axis extends from the eastern Dakotas through northern OK. Much cooler temperatures are ongoing across the forecast area with most areas in the upper 50s/low 60s. Low-level WAA will ensue with the return of southerly low-level flow, surging high temperatures into the low to mid 90s area-wide; the warmest across south central KS. Weak northeasterly low-level flow should shave a few degrees off from today's highs with Friday afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.
426 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Mid-level WV imagery early this morning clearly shows yesterday's low pressure system now over the eastern Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs today are only expected to top off in the low 50s, except for the south and east, which will climb into the upper 50s/low 60s. Key Messages: -Skies become mostly clear tonight through Friday night with some fog or frost potential for cooler interior locations.
/NF/ Hi-res guidance continue to highlight a cold front digging south towards the region. By early Friday morning, the upper trough will close off into a 581 dam low pressure system and will continue to drag southeastward. There is some discrepancy with both the GFS and the ECMWF as the ECMWF places the trough and associated low- pressure system a little further south in contrast to the GFS.
400 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A cold front will cross the region today. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes, slowly spreading into the Ohio Valley. Pre-frontal trough bisects the area with a few showers still possible out ahead of this. Appears that the cold front has moved into western Indiana. As high pressure builds into the Great Lakes, the departing cold front will be slow to move east. On Friday evening, a general pattern of mid-level troughing will be in place across the eastern CONUS.
1130 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Cooler weather is expected the next several days.
After the open wave exits east a ridge builds into southern Canada. The strength of this ridge will be marginal but expect temperatures to run 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
-Cooler temperatures today and tomorrow, as highs reach the 60s to lower 70s. Otherwise; cooler, and more seasonal temperatures are expected today and tomorrow. Some broken cumulus are possible at times this afternoon as the upper level trough that brought precip to our area shifts eastward. Discussion: Continued NW flow aloft will bring the chance for passing systems that travel along the Ridge aloft.
347 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Upper level ridging will persist across the southern Rockies and southern high plains today. In this synoptically quiescent regime, a weak pressure trough will form along the OK/KS state line. A weak cold front will pass tonight, with temperatures a few degrees cooler by Friday.
1224 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 As of 830 PM CDT, temperatures continue to gradually fall into the lower 80s ahead of the frontal boundary and the upper 70s behind the front and associated convection. We will see low to mid 90s tomorrow in the wake of some rain today and cooler soils in S AR. And some morning lows will be near record territory as well with a wide range of 70s tomorrow, but then a little cooler overnight Thursday.
1043 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (This evening through Thursday) As the low-level ridge (centered far to our north) shifts eastward, will see haze and subsequent visibility reductions through tomorrow afternoon over parts of Oklahoma due to a large swath of smoke being transported from Canada. Light north winds could become variable into tonight as the ridge axis drifts across the area. Cooler temperatures and somewhat lower dewpoint temperatures should make for pleasant conditions this evening into tomorrow morning. Also possible, but even more uncertain, is the possibility of storms developing along the warm front late tomorrow where CIN is less (notably along an arc from northwest Oklahoma to central Oklahoma).
(Today through Friday afternoon) The subtropical ridge has centered itself across far west TX, northern Mexico, and southern NM and will remain parked there through the short term period with very little change in strength/heights. Forecast high temperatures today will approach Heat Advisory criteria in the southwestern Mountains and foothills, as well in our far eastern Permian Basin counties, but the overall coverage of these temperatures does not appear high enough to warrant a Heat Advisory, especially with Friday appearing to be the slightly warmer day of the period.
Low pressure continues to very slowly exit eastward out of Lower Michigan early this morning. with the upper level trough axis following close behind. developing around the low center and enhanced by the arrival of the upper level trough axis. as the upper level trough axis swings thru Lower Michigan this afternoon into early evening. High pressure will begin to settle into Northern Michigan later this evening and overnight.
A surface cold front will continue to progress through the forecast area through late this afternoon into tonight. Post-frontal CAA, will bring a refreshing airmass, with low temperatures dipping into the lower to middle 60s and falling dew point temperatures. Models are in strong agreement that mild Canadian high pressure will shift southward into the Midwest. The eastward progression of the trough will be blocked by a stout, elongated H5 ridge over the Eastern Seaboard.
255 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Issued at 255 A CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Key points: * Smoke and haze continue through at least mid-afternoon today * Small precipitation chances tonight * Warm through the weekend then cooler with greater rain potential Satellite imagery showing clear skies over much of the central CONUS early this morning with water vapor imagery showing a weak wave moving east across Wyoming.
1226 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (The rest of tonight) Latest surface analysis indicates the cold front has pushed into swrn Arkansas and far nern Texas. A short wave trough was evident in water vapor imagery over ern Kansas and nrn Missouri, translating southeastward.
A surface cold front will eventually move through late today, extending the risk for activity into the evening hours. Convection coverage and intensity is expected to increase as the morning progresses, placing the highest probabilities for storms along the eastern border of the forecast area. Behind the eastward moving wave, a surface cold front will cross Ohio early this afternoon, reaching the eastern third of the area around sunset.
2) Smoke originating from the multiple fires located in British Columbia and the Northwest Territories of Canada has worked its way into a large portion of the central CONUS behind an upper trough heading ESE over the eastern US. 4) Lastly, an upper trough and associated cold front is projected to move through early next work week, bringing with it increasing chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures.
(Today and tonight) A sprawling subtropical ridge will remain stout over the area today with a weak short wave moving out of the Rockies into the Central Plains. This surface cyclone will move across the Texas Panhandle this afternoon dragging a surface pressure trough behind it to the southwest. Low level convergence within the trough and strong surface heating will allow a cumulus field to develop. Whether this is enough lift to see any thunderstorms remains unclear given the strength of the ridge overhead.
Cold front and drier air push through the region by this evening for a noticeable break in the heat and humidity. Discussion: A cold front, currently located from roughly Memphis northeast through Clarksville, will push east-southeast today, driven by an upper trough/closed low diving southeast from Illinois into middle Tennesee. An uptick in convective coverage is expected by daybreak and thereafter as the front and upper low approaches. Cold front and upper trough axis push east of the area between roughly 2pm and 5pm this afternoon. May still have some shower lingering in the higher terrain but for most areas any rainfall chances should wind down during that time.
254 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Key Message: 1) Low stratus will gradually give way to clearing 2) Mostly clear and chilly tonight Today, low stratus clouds spilling SSE down across the local area in the cyclonic flow around low pressure in the Great Lakes will gradually break up and exit to the east. Temperatures will be cooler in east central IA and NW IL where clouds will linger the longest. Highs there will be in the lower 70s while mid and upper 70s are seen elsewhere. Tonight, high pressure will build into the area with light northeast winds and mostly clear skies.
(Thursday through Friday) The short-term forecast looks to remain disturbed, with most of our weather being driven by the stalled cold front to our north. Today, upper-level ridging will build in to our west, tilting the front and putting the region into NW flow.
The latest HRRR/RAP NCEP smoke guidance showing the highest concentration of smoke particles there. For the remainder of Thursday into Friday, guidance continues to show a meandering upper ridge over the southern Plains providing zonal flow aloft. RH guidance showing areas along and west of Highway 27 to see numbers around the lower to mid teens. Friday will see an inverted trough build into eastern Colorado with high pressure north and east.
A dry southwest flow will remain across our region as we sit between a large Desert Southwest ridge and a Pacific Northwest trough.
This afternoon/Tonight: A cold front has swept through the region yesterday and the relief from the heat is quite apparent this afternoon. Cooler 850mb temperatures will lead to highs below average for Thursday before warming back to seasonal temperatures by Friday.
204 AM MDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A rinse and repeat weather pattern continues across the area through the end of the week, with highs in the 70s and low 80s, with a few afternoon showers each day across the higher terrain. Weak ridging continues over the Treasure State, as steady west to southwesterly flow aloft prevails through the next several days. While conditions remain warmer, daily chances for development of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continues as well.
928 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023 GOES-16 satellite imagery reveals hardly a cloud in the sky across eastern Utah and western Colorado this afternoon with high pressure in control. with the high here in Grand Junction reaching 91F so far (5 degrees above normal). On Friday, with the high pressure still centered over northern Mexico southwesterly flow will continue.
1114 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Canadian high pressure settling south along with favorable low-level wind trajectories should allow Canadian wildfire smoke to persist across the region through at least Thursday or Thursday night.
214 AM MDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A few clouds were lingering across the eastern Uintas early this morning are dissipating under stable conditions with clear skies area wide as we continue to sit under the influence of high pressure. Given the low relative humidity expected to be in the single digits and low teens as well as the marginal winds, elected not to issue any Fire Weather highlights at this time since critical fire weather conditions still appear to be more localized and marginal. However, models have been back and forth with the magnitude of the winds and currently gusts look to be in the 25 to 30 kt range, but closer to the lower end of that. Due to a bit better mixing, temperatures look a few degrees warmer on Friday with highs approaching 4 to 8 degrees above normal.
1250 AM MDT Thu Sep 7 2023 More zonal upper level flow across the CWA as a high pressure builds in from the south with increasing convergence aloft.
Precipitation had ended elsewhere, and partial clearing was occurring due to subsidence from the departing upper trough. Any lingering light showers or drizzle in the far north and northeast should end today as high pressure builds into the region. Despite the arrival of the high, mostly cloudy skies are expected to prevail due to lingering low-level moisture. A much cooler Canadian air mass, combined with mostly cloudy skies, will result in high temperatures only reaching the mid to upper 50s north, and lower to middle 60s south. Low temperatures should range from the lower 40s far north to the lower 50s southeast.
Despite the smoky sky, and smoke at ground level, temperatures have warmed into the 60s, with some areas expected to top out in the low 70s by the end of daytime heating (~4PM CDT). The low/mid-level WAA progged to happen on Thursday across the western/central portions of South Dakota should help to push the mercury up into the 80s, while northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota probably doesn't warm up much past the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
The upper high to the southwest will gradually break down as an upper trough over northeast North America becomes the more dominant upper feature.
1127 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 The latest surface analysis places a cold front along and nearly parallel to I-40 at this hour. AC3 Showers and thunderstorms will continue across north Mississippi through this evening but slightly cooler and drier air will settle over the region behind a cold front.
- Warmer temperatures and slight chances for storms return Thursday into Friday. Predominantly zonal midlevel flow develops by Friday morning as low- level thermal ridging noses back into the region. Continued southerly/southeasterly flow over central/western SD ahead of an approaching inverted trof will support additional low-level moisture advection, particularly in the wake of any convection that emerges across central SD/NE tomorrow evening and night. West of the trof axis, southwesterly downslope winds across much of northeastern WY should augment warming and drying, leading to elevated fire weather conditions in some areas Friday afternoon.
1022 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Temperatures will return to seasonal normals across the area today as heights rise and warmer air is advected in. The ridge strengthens on Thursday, with temperatures trending up a degree or two. Friday will be warmer as the ridge expands a bit north.
An upper level area of high pressure was located over southwest TX with the ridge axis extending north of the high pressure center into the Rockies. Hazy/smokey sunshine is expected on Thursday with highs from the low 80s in the northeast to around 90 in the west.
Issued at 255 A CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Key points: * Smoke and haze continue through at least mid-afternoon today * Small precipitation chances tonight * Warm through the weekend then cooler with greater rain potential Satellite imagery showing clear skies over much of the central CONUS early this morning with water vapor imagery showing a weak wave moving east across Wyoming.
945 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A slow moving cold front will eventually move through the region late today. This will mean clouds, cooler temperatures and the risk for showers and storms. Convection coverage and intensity is expected to increase as the morning progresses, placing the highest probabilities for storms along the eastern border of the forecast area. Behind the eastward moving wave, a surface cold front will cross Ohio early this afternoon, reaching the eastern third of the area around sunset.
530 AM MDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A few clouds were lingering across the eastern Uintas early this morning are dissipating under stable conditions with clear skies area wide as we continue to sit under the influence of high pressure. Given the low relative humidity expected to be in the single digits and low teens as well as the marginal winds, elected not to issue any Fire Weather highlights at this time since critical fire weather conditions still appear to be more localized and marginal. However, models have been back and forth with the magnitude of the winds and currently gusts look to be in the 25 to 30 kt range, but closer to the lower end of that. Due to a bit better mixing, temperatures look a few degrees warmer on Friday with highs approaching 4 to 8 degrees above normal.
A rinse and repeat weather pattern continues across the area through the end of the week, with highs in the 70s and low 80s, with a few afternoon showers each day across the higher terrain. Weak ridging continues over the Treasure State, as steady west to southwesterly flow aloft prevails through the next several days. While conditions remain warmer, daily chances for development of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continues as well.
High pressure will push temperatures back to several degrees above average, with near record heat expected this weekend. High pressure is currently centered over New Mexico and Chihuahua and will remain there over the next couple of days.
Upper level high pressure over New Mexico will gradually shift west over Arizona and northern Mexico into the weekend, as ridging expands over NorCal with slowly rising heights. Eastern Pacific trough will keep west to southwest flow over NorCal between these two features helping to moderate temperatures.
Skies clear but lingering stratocu clouds on west side of upper trough to our east with partly cloudy conditions Baudette to Bemidji to Staples.
929 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A cold front will cross the region today. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes, slowly spreading into the Ohio Valley. Cool air aloft associated with a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes will provide enough lift for a few showers today, especially from west- central Ohio south into the Tri-State Region. Most areas will see considerable low clouds associated with the trough. As high pressure builds into the Great Lakes, the departing cold front will be slow to move east. On Friday evening, a general pattern of mid-level troughing will be in place across the eastern CONUS.
A cold front associated with the trough is still expected to stall prior to pushing through the entire area, and the hot low level thermal ridge (e. Meanwhile, the low level moisture transport trajectories and better moisture convergence will shift westward and more into the ArkLaTex region, and just about all guidance indicate greater instability supportive of severe weather will be west of the forecast area. /EC/ Through the weekend, the trough will continue to extend southeastward across the forecast area, and the drier conditions will finally allow southern MS to receive a break from the heat stress. Troughing will have our dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s, keeping our heat indices at bay.
618 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (Today through Friday) A short wave trough is sitting off to our northwest with a cold front pushing into the northwest part of our area.
652 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A cold front will cross the region today. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes, slowly spreading into the Ohio Valley. Cold front will move across the region today. As high pressure builds into the Great Lakes, the departing cold front will be slow to move east. On Friday evening, a general pattern of mid-level troughing will be in place across the eastern CONUS.
558 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Much quieter and cooler weather is expected through the short-term portion of the forecast.
723 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (Today through Friday) Conditions will remain mostly dry and sunny today as high pressure remains in place over the Florida peninsula. A return to more seasonable September conditions starts knocking on our door on Friday as an upper level low over the Great Lakes drags a surface frontal boundary across the southeastern US towards the Florida peninsula. High temperatures will continue to peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon through the short term, but with the lower dew points, heat indices will struggle to break into the triple digits.
At the surface, a ridge axis extends from the eastern Dakotas through northern OK. Much cooler temperatures are ongoing across the forecast area with most areas in the upper 50s/low 60s. Low-level WAA will ensue with the return of southerly low-level flow, surging high temperatures into the low to mid 90s area-wide; the warmest across south central KS.
Key Message: 1) Low stratus will gradually give way to clearing 2) Mostly clear and chilly tonight Today, low stratus clouds spilling SSE down across the local area in the cyclonic flow around low pressure in the Great Lakes will gradually break up and exit to the east. Temperatures will be cooler in east central IA and NW IL where clouds will linger the longest. Highs there will be in the lower 70s while mid and upper 70s are seen elsewhere. Tonight, high pressure will build into the area with light northeast winds and mostly clear skies.
Today will be warmer as a thermal ridge moves in under mostly zonal flow. If you want temperatures in the lower 80s, you'll have to go west.
Upper level ridging will persist across the southern Rockies and southern high plains today. In this synoptically quiescent regime, a weak pressure trough will form along the OK/KS state line. A weak cold front will pass tonight, with temperatures a few degrees cooler by Friday.
629 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge, centered over southern New Mexico, will continue to dominate the region today. The 850 mb thermal ridge will strengthen today by around 2 deg C, which should result in highs a few degrees higher than yesterday.