Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs on Saturday will top out in the lower to middle 80s. to the lower 60s west. Thanks to ample sunshine, afternoon highs will climb into the lower to middle 80s.
Additionally, the Lower Keys cloud line activated in the past couple of hours just south of the island chain, even popping out two brief waterspouts. The deep-layer cyclone associated with Tropical Storm Ophelia will bifurcate over the next 48-hours. Thereafter, lower heights will once again invade the eastern US, complemented by a building ridge centered near Hispaniola. Both of these synoptic features, the southern blob and the building ridge, will pump rich theta-e northward into the Keys.
The dry slot and cold front right on its heels is looking faster than earlier forecasts and therefore less likely to impact eastern Nebraska.
In addition, there is a notable lack of moisture both in the low and mid levels shown across model soundings which further inhibits shower potential. Therefore will run with a dry forecast with POPs aob 10 percent with the highest chance near Ludington where coastline shape supports the best chance of a lake breeze penetration. Otherwise, 500 mbar ridging dominates the short term period with mostly sunny skies expected Saturday. Easterly flow continues to advect dry air into lower Michigan associated with a high pressure system in the Hudson Bay region. A positively tilted ridge over Michigan should be sandwiched between two upper level lows.
311 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will exit the region tonight, as low pressure approaches from the south. The low will return rain chances to the area over the weekend as it tracks across the Mid Atlantic region. High pressure centered across New England will maintain dry weather through the evening. Moist advection should continue, with ascent from the low level jet and vorticity advection maintaining the rain band especially east and southeast of Pittsburgh. A downsloping easterly flow should result in some drying in the lower levels west of the ridges, which could initially limit the rain chances.
As Tropical Storm Ophelia to the east northeast, continues to track northward toward the Carolinas, high pressure will build from the northwest. Between these two features the wind will come from the north then northwest, helping to drive a cooler and drier airmass across the area.
(This evening through Saturday night) A building ridge across the panhandles will continue to cause dry and fair weather for the rest of today and again on Saturday. Temperatures will be hot again under the ridge with highs in the 90s with the hottest spots having a small chance of even hitting 100.
This kind of gets washed out by an upper low drifting across the Plains, but we remain ridged locally as the pattern is stalled by the next tropical system lifting up the east coast. So the ridge gets pinched between these systems, keeping the current airmass largely locked into place and holding the upper low over the Midwest and Northern Plains through the weekend.
144 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Key Points: * Outside of a few lingering showers west of I-39 this afternoon, no impactful weather is expected through Saturday night Discussion: Combined GOES-16 and 17 water vapor satellite imagery depicts a fairly busy scene across the contiguous United States with a tropical storm (Ophelia) nearing the Carolina coasts, a decaying MCV lifting northeastward from Iowa into southern Minnesota, an active sub-tropical jet stream arcing into the Southern Plains, and a sprawling cut-off low pressure system centered over the Pacific Northwest.
632 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 A pleasant but warm end to the week is in store as height rises begin to occur with an upper level ridge. Meanwhile, the aformentioned ridging over the FA will mean dry and unseasonably warm conditions for Saturday as even a good portion of Saturday night now looks to remain pcpn free.
DISCUSSIONâ¦ Fallâs colder touch nipped parts of the western Carson Valley and the northern valleys as morning lows fell close to and hovered around the freezing mark.
Highs on Saturday will top out in the lower to middle 80s.
Current temperatures seem to be trending cooler, so took tonight's lows down a couple of degrees.
Ophelia (which will continue to track north- northwestward into southeastern NC) and an amplifying mid-level ridge across the southern Plains.
633 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Overall conditions will be quiet tonight and tomorrow across the region as upper ridging will still dominate. Though still present tomorrow, the upper ridge will be flatten slightly by the upper low that is expected to push across the Northern Plains. A cold front will follow behind the upper low and push southward into the Texas Panhandle by late tomorrow afternoon and approach the FA by the early evening. These winds along with upper ridging will allow temps to warm a few degrees tomorrow afternoon (low/upper 90s to low 100s).
556 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will exit the region tonight, as low pressure approaches from the south. The low will return rain chances to the area over the weekend as it tracks across the Mid Atlantic region. High pressure centered across New England will maintain dry weather through the evening. Moist advection should continue, with ascent from the low level jet and vorticity advection maintaining the rain band especially east and southeast of Pittsburgh. A downsloping easterly flow should result in some drying in the lower levels west of the ridges, which could initially limit the rain chances.
As upper low moves into northern WY tonight a trowal will develop over central MT, and this should allow showers to become widespread across much of our western/central cwa into early Saturday. so places like Broadus & Ekalaka should see a lull in precip until the low moves further east on Saturday. If you are planning to travel the highway please check road conditions first. Hunters & recreationists should be prepared for wintry conditions in the high country. Precip will taper off from west to east tomorrow as the low moves into the Dakotas and ridging builds from the west.
Expect this activity to diminish within the next hour or so, allowing for the remainder of the night to be dry with lows in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures on Saturday will be a bit warmer than the last few days with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Light northerly flow overnight will help lows fall into the mid to upper 60s for many areas, though the Space and Treasure Coasts could remain in the lower 70s and rural areas north of Orlando could dip into the lower 60s.
Mostly sunny on Saturday in the Northwest flow with Max temps rebounding close to normal values with highs in the mid/upper 80s while the lower humidity values remain in place. As Tropical Storm Ophelia to the east northeast, continues to track northward toward the Carolinas, high pressure will build from the northwest. Between these two features the wind will come from the north then northwest, helping to drive a cooler and drier airmass across the area.
746 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Dry high pressure will continue to ridge down across the area from the north through this evening.
646 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) Midday RAP analysis depicts a 594 dm subtropical ridge centered over northern Mexico, providing a NW flow aloft over south-central TX.
Main concern will be the continued threat of some stronger winds across the region as the strong westerlies will be impinging across the mountains and this will lead to some strong gusty winds at ridgetops through mid day tomorrow.
659 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Key Points: * Outside of a few lingering showers west of I-39 this afternoon, no impactful weather is expected through Saturday night Discussion: Combined GOES-16 and 17 water vapor satellite imagery depicts a fairly busy scene across the contiguous United States with a tropical storm (Ophelia) nearing the Carolina coasts, a decaying MCV lifting northeastward from Iowa into southern Minnesota, an active sub-tropical jet stream arcing into the Southern Plains, and a sprawling cut-off low pressure system centered over the Pacific Northwest.
However, the next wave wrapping around the upper low over western WY is moving across southern and central WY and will arrive later this evening and overnight. Water vapor shows upper low redeveloping near SLC, with one ejecting wave over western SD and the next over southeast WY. At surface, elongated trof extends from southeast WY through eastern CO. Convective activity over western SD is quite tame well north of the surface trof, but activity over eastern WY is becoming intense. Another round of showers/storms (mainly non-severe) is then expected later tonight and early Saturday morning as the main upper low crosses WY and pushes into far western SD by Saturday morning. Upper low will shift into central SD by Saturday afternoon, with on and off showers and breezy northwest winds.
Meanwhile, aloft we continue to be situated at the base of a trough that has been a constant feature for the last several days.
1017 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Dry high pressure will continue to ridge down across the area from the north through this evening.
907 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will exit the region tonight, as low pressure approaches from the south. The low will return rain chances to the area over the weekend as it tracks across the Mid Atlantic region. High pressure centered across New England will maintain dry weather through the evening. Moist advection should continue, with ascent from the low level jet and vorticity advection maintaining the rain band especially east and southeast of Pittsburgh. A downsloping easterly flow should result in some drying in the lower levels west of the ridges, which could initially limit the rain chances.
723 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 As Tropical Storm Ophelia to the east northeast, continues to track northward toward the Carolinas, high pressure will build from the northwest. Between these two features the wind will come from the north then northwest, helping to drive a cooler and drier airmass across the area.
While low temps will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s away from the gulf coast, sheltered spots that decouple could dip down into the lower and middle 50s.
553 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Water vapor shows upper low redeveloping near SLC, with one ejecting wave over western SD and the next over southeast WY. At surface, elongated trof extends from southeast WY through eastern CO. Convective activity over western SD is quite tame well north of the surface trof, but activity over eastern WY is becoming intense. Another round of showers/storms (mainly non-severe) is then expected later tonight and early Saturday morning as the main upper low crosses WY and pushes into far western SD by Saturday morning. Upper low will shift into central SD by Saturday afternoon, with on and off showers and breezy northwest winds.
825 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 (Issued 825 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023) Sely sfc-850 mb flow will bring drier air into the low levels late this evening into tomorrow. High temps will range from the lower 70s near the lake to upper 70s over south central WI. Dry and clear conditions are then expected the remainder of Saturday into late Saturday night before an additional weak trough begins to move into southwestern Wisconsin and produce scattered showers.
613 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 (This evening through Saturday) A hot and humid afternoon across much of the area with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and mostly sunny skies.
920 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will exit the region tonight.
624 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Dry high pressure will continue to ridge down across the area from the north through this evening.
(The rest of tonight) Overall, a quiet night is expected for the region as upper level ridge axis moves overhead. A plume of elevated convection may develop through NE OK by early afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front, otherwise the focus for storm initiation will be the cold front approaching NE OK by mid afternoon. The effective cold front will largely be the eventual storm outflow boundary while the synoptic cold front will be slow to advance southward.
621 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) The dominance of the mid-level ridge continues through the short term forecast period. The good news is that dry air due to the subsidence from the mid-level ridge will help reduce the heat indices and keep the region out of heat advisory conditions. Low temperatures are expected to be in the 70s with a few places in the lower 80s for tonight and tomorrow night. A weak disturbance sits off the Lower Texas Coast and could bring a stray shower or two to some of the coastal Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties, but most of the rain is expected to stay off shore, due to the mid-level ridge.
215 PM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Currently, temperatures are cooler than what is normally seen at this time of year. Central California is now in a post-frontal environment as a cooler and drier air-mass on exist over the region.
618 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) A building ridge across the panhandles will continue to cause dry and fair weather for the rest of today and again on Saturday. Temperatures will be hot again under the ridge with highs in the 90s with the hottest spots having a small chance of even hitting 100.
Upper level low pressure system has exited eastern Idaho this evening ending much of the breezy conditions. Upper level ridge developing over central Oregon this evening will move eastward over the forecast area on Saturday. The Treasure Valley will see minimum temperatures in the low 40s.
The low pressure system responsible for the recent rainfall and high elevation snow will continue to slowly move eastward today, allowing for a brief break in the action today through Sunday. Water vapor imagery shows the next trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast, which will prompt the upper flow pattern over our region to transition into a southwesterly flow.
As the parent system Ophelia is steered to the north in conjunction with the mid-level trough, the associated boundary will be lifted northwards into South Florida. High temperatures will trend a tad warmer on Sunday with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s across the region.
Chances for showers and storms are forecast to continue through the weekend ahead of an advancing upper level low. Saturday: Heading into daybreak Saturday, most guidance continues to suggest that both coverage and intensity will increase ahead of an advancing cold front. In the meantime, we encourage you to remain weather aware, especially if you have any outdoor plans! Saturday Night - Sunday: Look for thunderstorm chances to gradually diminish Saturday evening as the aforementioned cold front departs the region. That being said, still expect to see the upper level low remain fairly stagnant for much of the overnight period through Sunday, which will likely result in some lingering showers east of I- 29 and north of I-90.
Although it is classified as tropical, its roots were not, and it is uncharacteristically associated with a sizable mid/upper level low. Well to the northwest there is another mid/upper level low over the northern plains, and in between there's a weak ridge or col over the Midwest and lower Great lakes. At the surface, a blocking high pressure system is situated to the north of Ophelia.
1229 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 (This evening through Sunday) A flattened upper level ridge over Texas and northern Mexico will allow systems moving across the southern Plains to zip across Arkansas thru the short term period. An associated weak surface cold front / trof will be moving in from the southern Plains as well, and a destabilized airmass will allow for fairly widespread thunderstorm development.
115 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 As western US closed low accelerates eastward into the northern Plains today, surface cyclogenesis will lead to isallobaric backed/easterly low level flow across Indiana. Temperatures should peak in the low 80s most areas, or about 5-7 degrees above mid-late September climo. The northern Plains closed low decelerates and dampens into the weekend.
An upper level low will move into and across the Dakotas on Saturday and into and across Minnesota on Sunday. There area questions on just how far east the supercells can make it, especially with the slow movement and the cold front movement overtake them likely forming the storms into a line.
Today will be the first dry day that we have seen in a bit as the upper low that brought multiple days of cloudy and wet weather continues to depart to the east and high pressure builds over the region. While temps will predominately remain just above freezing in these aforementioned zones, the National Blend 25th Percentile indicates portions of the Arco Desert and Lower Snake Plain will just barely drop into sub- freezing territory.
Otherwise expecting dry conditions during the day with highs getting into the low to mid 80s.
(Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions are in store once again today as the CWA remains beneath the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge that is currently centered over north-central Mexico.
Both today and tomorrow, highs will be in the mid-60s in southern zones where clouds persist to the lower 70s in the wider valleys, especially north.
Initially, the highest risk for rain will be over the ridges today. Showers may reach the southeastern ridges around dawn, but will have a difficult time spreading westward. Additionally, breezy conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern half of the forecast area, with the strongest gusts on the ridge tops. Continued ascent, and deep layer moisture on the northern/western side of the low, will maintain rain chances Saturday night and Sunday, again with the highest POPS east and south of Pittsburgh. In addition to the rain, wind gusts could approach 35 mph on the ridge tops across WV and the Laurel Highlands tonight with a tightening pressure gradient in advance of the low.
The pattern will shift on Sunday as a weak cold front moves into the region.
Synopsis: Water vapor imagery at this hour shows an upper low progressing eastward from the central/northern Rockies eastward into the northern Plains. Forecast: Upper low and associated area of midlevel frontogenesis and deformation will lift and pivot northeastward this morning through the afternoon. Sufficient low-level moisture along the backside of the low and midlevel lapse rates of 6-7 C/km may allow modest CAPE to develop tomorrow morning/afternoon, especially across our far east, which could support isolated showers there.
Overnight lows will be in the mid-50s to lower 60s across much of the CWA, although temperatures could drop to the upper 40s in the higher terrain of northeast GA. Dry conditions will persist tomorrow (Sunday) as high pressure remains in place across the Southeast while Ophelia travels northward up the Mid-Atlantic coast. Highs will be in the lower 80s to right around 90 -- just a few degrees warmer than today at most.
Saturday will be mostly dry ahead of a cold front that will move across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley late Saturday night into Sunday. Overnight, an upper level low will move across northern Rockies just as another upper low pushes west into the southeast CONUS. By early Saturday morning low pressure to our northwest will help surge moisture into the central Plains and Ozark Valley while the tropical low pressure to our southeast will push drier air into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures will be slightly cooler if there is an increase in cloud cover.
Initially, the highest risk for rain will be over the ridges today. Main change for the overnight period was to lower PoPs and keep them confined to the southeastern ridges. Showers may reach the southeastern ridges around dawn, but will have a difficult time spreading westward. Additionally, breezy conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern half of the forecast area, with the strongest gusts on the ridge tops. Continued ascent, and deep layer moisture on the northern/western side of the low, will maintain rain chances Saturday night and Sunday, again with the highest POPS east and south of Pittsburgh. In addition to the rain, wind gusts could approach 35 mph on the ridge tops across WV and the Laurel Highlands tonight with a tightening pressure gradient in advance of the low.
While low temps will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s away from the gulf coast, sheltered spots that decouple could dip down into the lower and middle 50s. (Saturday night through Sunday night) High pressure and reinforced northerly flow move in behind TS Ophelia. Expect overnight lows generally in the low to mid 60s with daytime highs generally in the low 90s.
Expect temperatures in some parts of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia to be 5 or more degrees cooler today compared to yesterday. Outside of this area, a persistence forecast looks to remain valid with temperatures a smidge cooler in the central and northern valley from the uptick in cloud coverage.
and Sunday Showers will continue this morning as an upper trough, PV anomaly, and isentropic lift continue across western Wisconsin and slowly lift north. Tonight should mainly be dry with the area in between the departing first trough and the next trough approaching on Sunday. Some clearing is expected across east-central and northeast Wisconsin tonight, with increasing clouds late tonight as the next trough approaches. Another mid level trough, PV anomaly, and area of strong isentropic ascent will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms from west to east early Sunday morning throughout the day on Sunday.
Most models continue to indicate drying in the lower to mid levels today into tonight.
Even though temps may fall several more degrees through sunset, they are still much warmer than previously expected for right now, in the mid 60s and even lower 70s in Chicago. A cold front will move across IA tonight into Sunday morning and begin to slow as it moves into northwest and western IL Sunday.
1210 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Overall conditions will be quiet tonight and tomorrow across the region as upper ridging will still dominate. Though still present tomorrow, the upper ridge will be flatten slightly by the upper low that is expected to push across the Northern Plains. A cold front will follow behind the upper low and push southward into the Texas Panhandle by late tomorrow afternoon and approach the FA by the early evening. These winds along with upper ridging will allow temps to warm a few degrees tomorrow afternoon (low/upper 90s to low 100s).
1240 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) The dominance of the mid-level ridge continues through the short term forecast period. The good news is that dry air due to the subsidence from the mid-level ridge will help reduce the heat indices and keep the region out of heat advisory conditions. Low temperatures are expected to be in the 70s with a few places in the lower 80s for tonight and tomorrow night. A weak disturbance sits off the Lower Texas Coast and could bring a stray shower or two to some of the coastal Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties, but most of the rain is expected to stay off shore, due to the mid-level ridge.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low pressure system over Wyoming early this morning with jet streak just south of the low extending into Colorado. Temperatures across the area were in the mid to upper 60s with dew points in the low to mid 60s. The cold front will extend southwest of the low just west of the CWA by 00z. The upper low will push east into the upper MS valley on Sunday while upper ridging begins to develop over the Rockies. The eastern and southern CWA will have the highest pops on Sunday (35 to 50%) while lower pops are expected in the northwest as the drier air begins to move in (25-35%).