Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some patchy fog has developed in the wake of a cold front that's currently pushing southeast through the southeast half of the CWA this morning. High pressure at the surface will quickly build into the region today. Under northerly flow, a much drier airmass will filter into the region, resulting in slightly cooler conditions during the period.
859 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 Quiet weather continues this morning, with a shallow ridge aloft moving over eastern Montana and weak surface flow across the forecast area. High pressure ridge aloft to bring mainly clear skies, dry conditions, and mild temperatures today. Ridge to our west will then push through today. This ridge continues to push eastward tonight, continuing clear skies and light winds. As the ridge exits a light southerly wind could develop, this could limit the patchy fog potential. Mild temperatures look to start the week, followed by cooler and breezy conditions. Ridge moves east Sunday leaving a weak split flow pattern in its wake. A more organized upper low to our south could increase cloud cover through the day. Temperatures look to be slightly cooler yet mild in the 40s to lower 50s.
313 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 (Issued 313 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023) Today through Sunday: High pressure will remain in control at the surface through the weekend. Winds will pick up a bit as a trough passes by to our north, with westerly gusts to around 25 MPH at times early this afternoon. Highs will be in the low 50s.
Ridging aloft in place today for warm and dry conditions. Will see a longwave upper trof push into the northern Rockies from the southwest tonight into the day on Sunday. By Sunday morning energy undercutting the ridge over the southern Great Basin will shear the trof apart and pull energy south of the region.
(Today through Sunday) A longwave trough axis over the eastern United States will move across the peninsula of Florida today into early Sunday. While deep layer moisture is not as present to support large amounts of convection, there could be enough moisture coincident with the trough to spur some additional cloud cover and possibly some showers closer to the surface moisture provided by the Atlantic waters. By midday Sunday, the trough axis is to the east over the Bahamas and drier air again becomes well-established in the atmospheric column across South Florida to limit cloud coverage and convection.
This low level moisture extended to the Georgia border so it will take some time for the drier air to move in and clear out the low clouds. High pressure will build into the coastal waters with gusty winds. High pressure is building into the area and will clear out the low clouds overnight.
Breezy conditions can be expected this afternoon and again on Sunday for the eastern counties follow by cooler temperatures for the new week. The upper level pattern shows a Low Pressure Center near the coast of California with a 300mb jet from the Baja California through central Arizona with values of 100 kts to a jet core of 120kts near Baja California.
High pressure over he Missouri Valley is nosing into the state. Concurrently, low pressure is moving across Ontario toward James Bay. Clear skies are expected tonight and Sunday as the ridge axis moves over the state.
There could still be a few inches of snow in the higher elevations but looks to top out at 6 inches for the highest peaks where impacts would be negligible to beneficial. The GFS continues to be the driest and has basically nothing with low pressure remaining weaker.
Stratus will linger into the mid to late morning hours behind the departing cold front as cold air advection continues. Temps will be significantly cooler than the last several days with highs this afternoon in the 50s and lows tonight just either side of freezing, but that's only a handful of degrees below normal for mid-November. Sunday - Sunday Night High pressure over Kentucky will continue with easterly flow across the region, which will keep high/low temps right around normal mid to late November.
320 AM PST Sat Nov 18 2023 A low pressure system pushes inland this morning. The low will result in increasing showers including a some chances of thunderstorms through.
A ridge of high pressure over the Northern Rockies will shift eastward today. While high pressure still reigns supreme for another day, a trough of low pressure will dig southward along the West Coast and enter the Pacific Northwest tonight as southwesterly flow aloft takes over ahead of the approaching system. The trough over the Pacific will enter the Northern Rockies on Sunday morning. A cold front will accompany the trough, and westerly winds will become gusty on Sunday afternoon. Travelers in the higher elevations should expect westerly gusts to about 25 mph.
Yesterdays' upper low has opened into a trough as it accelerates towards the coast tonight. The upper trough will shift inland this morning and then quickly move east over the Great Basin this afternoon as a kicker trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Snow amounts of 6 to 12 inches are conceivable across some of the higher elevations around 10000 feet and above. Forecast rain amounts in the Sierra Nevada range from one quarter to one inch with the higher amounts farther north near Yosemite NP. An upper ridge over the eastern Pacific will quickly build inland behind the departing trough.
512 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer than normal high temperatures continue through Sunday. Upper ridging and weak sfc flow will keep the region dry today with highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal for mid November. The ridge will shift east on Sunday as it is pushed out by an upper low. While caa is expected to come in with the upper trough, H85 temps in most model members remain above +5C, so only rain is forecast at this time.
There could still be a few inches of snow in the higher elevations, but looks to top out at 6 inches for the highest peaks where impacts would be negligible to beneficial. The GFS continues to be the driest and has basically nothing with low pressure remaining weaker.
Dry air in the low and mid levels, sampled by last night's sounding, have kept the vertical growth and strength of these showers limited. A weak front associated with the low off the east coast of Florida pushed through the island chain overnight, and breezes have begun to freshen in the wake of this boundary.
704 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2023 (Today and tonight) Key Message: Light rain is coming to an end this morning leading into cooler weather today.
1206 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 A 1022 mb ridge of high pressure is continuing to build across the Lower Mississippi Valley today while yesterday's cold front is now located from the Appalachians southwest into southern Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.
High temperatures will warm to the high 60s to low 70s. Some patchy fog has developed in the wake of a cold front that's currently pushing southeast through the southeast half of the CWA this morning. High pressure at the surface will quickly build into the region today. Under northerly flow, a much drier airmass will filter into the region, resulting in slightly cooler conditions during the period.
Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 60s throughout the majority of the Tennessee Valley with northerly winds between 5-10 mph and occasional gusts up to 15 mph. Tonight, dry weather and clear skies are forecast to continue under influence of high pressure building into the region, however, gusts should subside after sunset. Low temperatures are forecast to dip into the low to mid 30s.
A more significant round of scattered thunderstorms is expected Sunday night as the main upper low lift shifts into central Kansas.
/Tonight through Saturday/ FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS: --Pleasant fall conditions continue into Sunday though temperatures a few degrees cooler with increasing cloud cover.
Precipitation will increase late today and especially overnight as an upper level trough moves through. Snow level 6-7kft MSL through 19/06Z, lowering to 4-5kft MSL across SE Oregon overnight as colder air arrives behind a cold front. Surface winds: S-SE 5-10kt, shifting to W-NW between 19/06Z and 19/15Z behind an eastward-moving cold front. Conditions improving Sunday morning in the lower elevations, while mountains north of the Snake Basin will continue to see low ceilings and mountain obscuration. Stagnant air remains in the Lower Treasure and Weiser River Valleys. A strong incoming upper trough will clear the air out tonight and the advisory has been extended until 11 PM MST tonight.
1139 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 Sunny skies are prevailing with temperatures on track for eventual highs around or into the lower 50s along and west of the Red River Valley. Lows fall into the 20s tonight, but will be warmer Sunday night as cloud cover works into the area.
This system will move into the High Plains late tonight, with a north-south warm front developing over west Texas. The cold front, this one of Pacific- origin, should follow close behind and push through west Texas Sunday afternoon. (Sunday night through next Saturday) A broad 500mb trough across the western United States Sunday will sharpen somewhat and move eastward into the west-central U.
/21 (Now through Sunday) A large upper trof over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic during the period as a broad upper trof evolves mostly over the central states. A weak cold front moves through the area today and ushers drier air into the region. A light northerly flow continues to prevail over the area through Sunday morning, with a weak easterly to southerly flow developing Sunday afternoon as a low pressure system develops over the south central states. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 70s, then highs on Sunday will be a bit cooler and range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Lows tonight mostly range from the lower 40s inland to the upper 40s at the coast.
126 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2023 High pressure builds from the west through the weekend. Plenty of sunshine is anticipated for Sunday, with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s across the lowlands, into the lower 40s highest peaks of our northeast mountains.
Still anticipating gusts near 25 mph midday into this afternoon, with highs in the low 50s. MH (Issued 313 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023) Today through Sunday: High pressure will remain in control at the surface through the weekend. Winds will pick up a bit as a trough passes by to our north, with westerly gusts to around 25 MPH at times early this afternoon. Highs will be in the low 50s.
1110 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 High pressure will be in place this weekend providing fair weather conditions across central Illinois. Expect highs in the lower to mid 50s today and mid to upper 50s Sunday.
Quiet weather continues this morning, with a shallow ridge aloft moving over eastern Montana and weak surface flow across the forecast area. High pressure ridge aloft to bring mainly clear skies, dry conditions, and mild temperatures today. Ridge to our west will then push through today. This ridge continues to push eastward tonight, continuing clear skies and light winds. As the ridge exits a light southerly wind could develop, this could limit the patchy fog potential. Mild temperatures look to start the week, followed by cooler and breezy conditions. Ridge moves east Sunday leaving a weak split flow pattern in its wake. A more organized upper low to our south could increase cloud cover through the day. Temperatures look to be slightly cooler yet mild in the 40s to lower 50s.
1125 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 (Today through Sunday) A cold front moved through Middle Tennessee last evening. Now, north winds were bringing dry and cooler air. This will feel much cooler than recent days, but it is spot-on average for this time of year. Dry high pressure will be directly over the area tonight and Sunday. Temps will warm into the lower 60s for most of us on Sunday.
This afternoon, shallow ridging aloft was moving over North Dakota, with weak flow both aloft and at the surface. Temperatures will be a bit cooler compared to today, with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. The previously mentioned closed low is expected to wrap up and stay south of the forecast area, but still close enough for a deformation band extending north of the low to spread into south central North Dakota, bringing a chance for rain showers starting Sunday evening.
Winds will turn light/calm overnight as the high slides eastward, and with clear skies and dry air in place, we should see temps bottom out into the 20s and low 30s. Trended the morning minimums toward the lower side of guidance given the optimal radiational cooling setup. A stronger, more broader area of high pressure will move in from Canada into the northern Great Lakes region by late tomorrow, giving surface flow a more easterly component over southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the low to mid 60s. During the day tomorrow, winds will shift towards the south and combine that with the potential sunshine will make for a warmer than seasonal day with high temperatures around the low 80s. Then moving into Sunday night, clouds are expected to build back in during the night for most of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, except for the Lower Rio Grande Valley, where skies are expected to be still mostly clear. Low temperatures for Sunday night are expected to be more in the mid to upper 60s with a few places in the Lower Rio Grande Valley getting to 70.
* None Surface analysis this morning features an elongated high pressure ridge extending from the southern Plains up into Quebec. Throughout the day, the overhead portion of this ridge axis will be pinched off in favor of a clipper system traversing the Canadian provinces within the broader troughing pattern aloft. Meanwhile, southeast Michigan holds firmly underneath the outer edge of the thermal trough. The continued eastward advancement of the clipper then drags a weak cold front through the Great Lakes early Sunday morning, reinforcing the colder airmass especially over the Thumb where a sharp temperature gradient drops 850mb temperatures to -6 to -8 C.
By tomorrow however, cooler temperatures will move into the region at 925mb and 850mb, producing slightly cooler temperatures through the column and at the surface for Sunday. High temperatures tomorrow remain above normal, but will be a few degrees cooler than today.
122 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2023 Ridging over the area today will give way to an upper trough moving into the region from the southwest tonight into Sunday. The majority of the energy associated with the trough will remain to the south, but enough forcing should allow for light rain/snow chances generally south and west of a Harlowton to Billings to Sheridan line mainly Sunday afternoon and evening.
This system will move into the High Plains late tonight, with a north-south warm front developing over west Texas. The cold front, this one of Pacific- origin, should follow close behind and push through west Texas Sunday afternoon.
KEY MESSAGES: * Warmer than normal high temperatures continue through Sunday. Upper ridging and weak sfc flow will keep the region dry today with highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal for mid November. The ridge will shift east on Sunday as it is pushed out by an upper low. While caa is expected to come in with the upper trough, H85 temps in most model members remain above +5C, so only rain is forecast at this time.
The orientation of the disturbance and associated cold front will push precipitation into Fresno, Kings and Tulare Counties where similar rain totals will be seen later today.
1240 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 Temperatures are already in the lower 50s across the southern RRV with mid to upper 40s farther north. Sunny skies are prevailing with temperatures on track for eventual highs around or into the lower 50s along and west of the Red River Valley. Lows fall into the 20s tonight, but will be warmer Sunday night as cloud cover works into the area.
Low pressure east of Florida will continue to shift northeast and away from the area today. North to northwest winds will continue west of this low pressure system, with speeds up to 10 to 15 mph. 5", and passing trough aloft may still generate isolated showers (PoPs ~20 percent) across central Florida this afternoon, with this activity pushing toward the south to southeast. A fresh northwest breeze around 15-20 knots will continue over the waters through this afternoon and evening to the west of low pressure shifting farther northeast of the area.
(This afternoon through Sunday) The longwave trough axis will continue to move across the Florida Peninsula this afternoon and overnight. As the morning sounding confirmed, deep layer moisture is not as present to support much convection, there will be limited moisture with the trough, but enough for today's cloud coverage and isolated showers, further supported by the low-level moisture from the Atlantic. Any showers will be over the waters early Sunday as the trough exits. By mid-day Sunday, the trough axis will over the Atlantic and passing the Bahamas.
255 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 (Issued 255 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2023) Tonight through Sunday night: High pressure continues to dominate through Sunday, with generally clear skies and a few passing high clouds throughout the weekend. A developing low pressure system in the central Great Plains will lead to slowly increasing cloud cover from west to east late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, as well as increasing easterly winds across the CWA Sunday night. Plenty of sunshine and easterly winds will lead to highs in the lower 50s on Sunday.
As we head into tonight and tomorrow showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to increase from west to east as trough deepens over the area. We may see two rounds of activity with the first round tied to isentropic ascent late tonight through early Sunday afternoon, and a second round then possible Sunday evening as the upper low moves overhead. Cooling mid-level temperatures underneath the upper low will allow for elevated instability to increase Sunday evening which is when our best shot at a strong to severe storm or two will be possible. First, the stronger mid-upper level winds will reside to the south of the upper low and therefore displaced from where the best instability is expected to be.
1018 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 Sunny skies are prevailing with temperatures on track for eventual highs around or into the lower 50s along and west of the Red River Valley. Lows fall into the 20s tonight, but will be warmer Sunday night as cloud cover works into the area.
1033 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 A 1022 mb ridge of high pressure is continuing to build across the Lower Mississippi Valley today while yesterday's cold front is now located from the Appalachians southwest into southern Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.
Aloft, the area is underneath broad northwest flow, while surface ridging builds in from the west. High pressure will bring clear skies overnight and relaxing winds as the pressure gradient weakens. High pressure will remain in control across the region supporting clear skies and light winds.
254 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2023 High pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley tonight and Sunday.
1053 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 High pressure will be in place this weekend providing fair weather conditions across central Illinois. Expect highs in the lower to mid 50s today and mid to upper 50s Sunday.
250 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 High pressure will keep things dry and seasonable through the weekend.
Key Messages: * Warmer than normal high temperatures continue through Sunday. Upper ridging and weak sfc flow will keep the region dry today with highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal for mid November. The ridge will shift east on Sunday as it is pushed out by an upper low. While caa is expected to come in with the upper trough, H85 temps in most model members remain above +5C, so only rain is forecast at this time.
-Enriquez MORNING DISCUSSION: Ridge of high pressure keeps things dry and unseasonably mild today through Sunday.
Key Messages: * Warmer than normal high temperatures continue on Sunday. Upper level ridging currently over the area will get pushed east tonight as a fairly deep trough digs over the Rockies and the central part of the country. At the surface, high pressure will slide east tonight, with low pressure working its way into the Central Plains by Sunday afternoon. There is decent agreement in the models that an area of rain will develop on the east/northeast side of the low, but a few differences in how quickly it reaches the CWA.
923 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2023 Dry high pressure will build into the area through early week with rain chances increasing from the next low pressure system Tue thru Wed. Drier and slightly cooler conditions are expected by Thanksgiving as weak high pressure prevails. Some tweaking of sky conditions early on to account for the high stratocu or low altocu clouds traversing north to south across the FA via sat imagery trends. Quiet weather with light north winds and clear skies on tap for tonight as an event-less cold front slides through this evening. Lows in the low 40s will feel chilly after this morning's 60s but such values are within a few degrees of climatology. Lows Sunday night in the low 40s, with potential for upper 30s across northern parts of CWA.
This system will move into the High Plains late tonight, with a north-south warm front developing over west Texas. The cold front, this one of Pacific- origin, should follow close behind and push through west Texas Sunday afternoon. The resulting downsloping flow and clearing skies should help afternoon temperatures reach (Sunday night through next Saturday) A broad 500mb trough across the western United States Sunday will sharpen somewhat and move eastward into the west-central U.
548 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) This morning's cold front is now well south of the area, leaving cooler temps in it's wake. We will add on a handful of degrees to Sunday as this morning's front pushes back as a warm front. By Sunday night, we begin to see our next cold front begin it's journey south across the state as an upper trough digs across the Plains.
749 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2023 Any of the final remaining spotty showers from earlier in interior areas have tapered off as drier air continues to move in and an upper level trough axis continues to shift further easy away from the area.
626 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2023 High pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley tonight and Sunday.
(Tonight through Sunday night) This morning's cold front is now well south of the area, leaving cooler temps in it's wake. We will add on a handful of degrees to Sunday as this morning's front pushes back as a warm front. By Sunday night, we begin to see our next cold front begin it's journey south across the state as an upper trough digs across the Plains.
A strong cold front will move through the state bringing showers and a few thunderstorms, rapidly falling snow levels with appreciable mountain snow accumulation and strong gusty winds to central and northern Nevada tonight into Sunday.
Updated min T tonight to go closer to the 75 percentile (25 pct chance) for cooler temps.
950 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2023 High pressure builds from the west through the weekend. Plenty of sunshine is anticipated for Sunday, with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s across the lowlands, into the lower 40s highest peaks of our northeast mountains.
853 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 High pressure will keep things dry and seasonable through the weekend. Temps have fallen quickly across the region and are in the 30s in most areas with dew points in the low to mid 20s in most areas.
311 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 Key Messages: * Warmer than normal high temperatures continue on Sunday. Upper level ridging currently over the area will get pushed east tonight as a fairly deep trough digs over the Rockies and the central part of the country. At the surface, high pressure will slide east tonight, with low pressure working its way into the Central Plains by Sunday afternoon. There is decent agreement in the models that an area of rain will develop on the east/northeast side of the low, but a few differences in how quickly it reaches the CWA.