Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
420 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 The cold front that started across central Kentucky this morning has now passed through the area and sits just east of our area. Cold air is also moving in aloft and has dropped the freezing level to around 4 kft. Models show good agreement through the short term as a pesky upper level low remains in place across the upper Great Lakes. Precipitation will taper off tonight as daytime heating is lost and temps cool into the low 40s. Tomorrow will be on the cooler side as temps fail to make it out of the 50s. Showers will again be possible as the upper low wobbles toward the northern Ohio Valley and lowers heights across the area. Monday lows will fall into the low to mid 40s.
Enjoy the warm temperatures this afternoon as cooler weather is forecast to return this week.
PoPs remain on track to increase this afternoon behind the cold front. An anomalously large, strong upper low will spin and wobble over the Great Lakes through the short term period. A lobe rotating around it is supporting a cold front which is over central KY early this morning. Unusually cold air aloft moving over the region in association with the upper low will result in instability developing this afternoon, especially as some limited heating tries to occur. As cold as the atmosphere will be (freezing level generally 3. With continued cold air advection in the lower levels and a loss of heating, the convection will become more shallow and weaken tonight.
102 PM PDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Dry, cooler, and breezy today.
1246 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 An upper level disturbance will track across the lower Ohio Valley today which could produce a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two over portions of northwest Tennessee this afternoon.
(Thru Tonight) Broad surface ridging down the Plains, on the west side of a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS, will keep things quiet for tonight, and for days to come. Mostly clear skies and light winds will favor radiational cooling tonight, especially in the cooler valleys.
(Tonight through Monday night) Southerly low level flow will increase to 30 knots over the Brush Country and to 20 knots for the coastal plains tonight due to a low pressure area over southwest Texas. The surface winds will remain slightly elevated tonight and keep minimum temperatures around 10 degrees warmer than this morning. With the low pressure area over southwest Texas, the winds will increase Monday with breezy conditions over the Coastal Bend in the afternoon. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s inland to around 70 coast and along the Rio Grande Monday night.
338 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 An upper level low migrating through the Great Lakes will result in a prolonged period of unseasonably chilly, breezy, and cloudy conditions, with rain chances through the first part of the workweek.
1207 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 (Today through Monday) Upper air analysis this morning shows northwesterly flow over Texas between a trough over the eastern half of the country and a ridge over the west. A cooler and drier airmass has moved over the region. Tonight southeasterly winds will continue in the low levels and moist air will begin to move back into the region. Lows Monday will be around five degrees warmer than today.
The upper closed low located across the Great Lakes region has only shifted slightly eastward over the last 24 hours allowing for northwest flow to persist across the Plains. The cooler airmass behind last night's cold front along with the brisk northwest winds have limited warming today even with good insolation; temperatures top out in the low to mid 60s. However, temperatures will fall to near or just below freezing Monday morning in far north central Kansas, creating freeze conditions for any susceptible vegetation.
Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower to middle 60s as winds turn more southeasterly. Rain chances remain out of the forecast thanks to high pressure overhead. The combination of high pressure overhead leading to mainly clear skies most of the night and increasing surface moisture means we cannot completely rule fog out. The SREF and HREF are indicating a 10 to 20 percent chance of fog forming along in the Lower Rio Grande Valley.
- Warmer and drier to start the work week. These have been most likely across western Minnesota where clear skies have allow the sun the heat the surface more, allowing for more efficient mixing of the high winds aloft down to the surface. Farther east into eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin have remained cloudy with lighter winds due to a less favorable setup for mixing of the higher winds aloft. Winds should calm some tonight as the surface cools and we no longer mix the higher winds to the surface.
(This afternoon through Monday) All rain has now exited Central Alabama well to the east, as the low pressure area ejects northeastward into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, a deep longwave trough is currently diving southward over the eastern CONUS as a stacked low pressure center spins over the Great Lakes. This front will usher in an additional shot of cooler and drier air, along with increasing gradient winds through the day today. Winds will gradually decrease overnight tonight with chilly overnight lows expected, ranging from the lower 40s in the far north to near 50 across the southeast. We'll remain under the influence of the deep upper trough through Monday as the omega block remains in place over the Rocky Mountain states.
(Rest of today through Monday) As of 1 PM the last of the storms are pushing offshore as the cold front is beginning to reach the east coast. Weak high pressure over the Gulf will maintain the generally dry airmass for Monday, with mostly sunny skies and nil precipitation chances expected for the first day of May.
1144 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 (Today and tonight) Weak cold front will move over the region early this morning, with the main impacts being a gusty northerly wind through the morning hours and also slightly cooler temperatures across northern Oklahoma (compared to yesterday).
1209 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Much cooler and windy weather will be the prevailing theme through Monday. The large upper low will continue to deepen as it moves through the Great Lakes today. A series of channeled vort maxes rotating through the cyclonic flow will send another more subtle cold surge/trof through the region this morning that will bring a more northwest wind component and good low level CAA. Owing to the afternoon cloudiness and cooler air mass, highs today will be markedly cooler than yesterday and around 10-15 degrees below normal. An omega block will become established across the CONUS, and we remain dominated by the eastern lobe/upper low. Temperatures should be a tad warmer due to less diurnal cloudiness, although IL should see its fair share.
However, winds should be less as high pressure nudges further east.
With this wind, temperatures today are much warmer than yesterday with most locations already in the 80s with 90s expected out west.
1151 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 (Today through Monday Night) Sunday looks to feature quiet weather as ridging begins to build in overhead. An 850mb ridge should bring westerly flow aloft during the afternoon hours. On Monday, an upper level ridge over the Rockies/Great Basin will get caught between two troughs (centered over the West coast and Northeast CONUS respectively).
1122 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Update With an upper low overhead and late April sunshine we will see heating of the day/instability showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms develop today. In the strongest of activity cannot rule out some small hail given freezing levels around 2,000ft and the -20C around 13,000ft.
After the front moves well out of the region, the subtropical ridge will struggle to gain much ground into our area. A large developing gyre sets up over the Great Lakes region and parks itself there for a majority of the week, keeping the ridge contained to our south.
It will be another very warm afternoon (record breaking for some) across the Northern Rockies today, as the ridge axis passes overhead.
Cooler temperatures Monday as a passing weather system brings another round of gusty winds.
Strengthening low pressure system over Virginia will trek northward into New England and into Canada overnight.
Wind gusts will be tempered some as well, however brisk and occasionally gusty winds will continue through the night as we remain in a tight surface pressure gradient behind low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and as winds aloft in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere increase slightly. Temperatures will drop into the lower 40s by sunrise, and when combined with the winds, will produce apparent temperatures in the lower and middle 30s.
The net result will be a cooler than normal night for the end of April into the first of May with many areas dipping into the upper 40s F to near 50 F. Monday features a similar day as Sunday with high pressure remaining in control. Highs will max out near 70 F around the highway 82 corridor, mid 70s F for most, and upper 70s F for those down in the Pinebelt of Mississippi.
Showers will move across West Tennessee today as a low pressure system pushes eastward across the Great Lakes region.
1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 (Today and tonight) Quiet conditions will continue through the morning into early afternoon before a backdoor cold front pushes through the region. Despite a FROPA, tonight will not be much different from this morning with lows only dropping into the low/upper 40s.
146 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2023 An upper ridge will slide slowly east over the Northern Rockies through the period. The ridge axis will find itself bisecting the forecast area from north to south Monday night, which will leave southern Montana and northern Wyoming precipitation free. Models were trying to initiate some weak showers Monday afternoon and evening over the mountains, but this seems overdone considering the lack of available moisture and the position of the ridge axis. Temperatures will be a little warmer Monday, as highs reach the the lower to mid 70s over western and central zones. The east will be a little cooler with highs in the 60s. Monday night will be a touch warmer, with lows ranging from the lower 40s west to mid 30s east.
By mid week a dry cold front will push through the area.
A cold front will progress across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico tonight, entering the northern Permian Basin around 7 pm CST, reaching the I-20 corridor between 9 pm and 11 pm, then to the I-10 corridor between 11 pm and 1 am, and eventually to the Rio Grande around daybreak Monday. Winds will veer gradually to an easterly to southeasterly direction as high pressure slips east away from the area and lee troughing begins. The cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures and higher relative humidities; however, overnight recovery will be poor from the Big Bend north across the northern Trans Pecos to the Guadalupes.
This upper level low will continue to drive our weather in the short term. Strong winds again during the day Monday with slightly warmer temps. Discussion: The upper level low will wobble all so slowly east in this period. Temperatures will be a little warmer across the area tomorrow.
146 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2023 High pressure aloft will keep Southwest, Central, and North Central Montana mostly dry with mild temperatures into Monday with breezy easterly winds.
1130 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Per previous discussions, the forecast area will be under an amplified high pressure ridge sandwiched between a closed low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and another over the Great Lakes region. On Monday the low off the Northwest Coast will sink southward to a position along the northwest California coast by late afternoon. The repositioning of this system will cause the ridge axis to shift eastward while taking on a negative tilt allowing low-level moisture to move northward over the Continental Divide.
This upper level low will continue to drive our weather in the short term. Strong winds again during the day Monday with slightly warmer temps. Discussion: The upper level low will wobble all so slowly east in this period. Temperatures will be a little warmer across the area tomorrow. As the cold upper low slowly moves east, clouds and isolated to scattered showers will persist during the day over a good chunk of the area. Regardless of the area, the windy conditions will make it feel much cooler.
109 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Omega block pattern setting up over our area right now, ridge over Montana bookended by two troughs, one at each coast.
205 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 With the freezing level at 4K FT AGL, and 60 units of H5 positive vorticity advection pinwheeling thru the base of the mean trof, we received numerous reports of small hail, mainly in our northeast (EVV Tri-State are) today.
(This evening through Monday) An omega block was taking shape across the CONUS late this weekend with West Texas on the east side of the ridge.
From synopsis, very strong southwest winds this morning will shift to the west to northwest and gradually slacken during this afternoon, as a cold front moves through the Keys coastal waters.
Persistent easterly flow over the plains will begin to increase low level moisture along and east of the mountains by late afternoon, with some pockets of modest instability (CAPE of 400-800 J/KG) developing near the high terrain. Max temps Mon should climb several degf from Sunday's readings at most locations as upper ridge is overhead and mid level temps/heights rise.
Weak high pressure at the surface along with a mostly northwest flow aloft eventually transitioning to weak ridging aloft will help to keep the area dry as moisture levels remain on the low side. Expect to see gradually increasing clouds through the period along with warmer temperatures heading on into Monday and Monday night (inland lows tonight mainly in the 50s, inland highs on Monday mostly in the low to mid 80s, and Monday night's inland lows mainly in an upper 50s to low 60s range).
However, with the upper level low beginning to shift eastward precipitation looks to gradually end west to east through the day on Monday. Although still below normal, temperatures will be a tad warmer with highs reaching into the 40s and even low 50s for some.
110 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Blocking pattern will support dry weather the next couple days along with seasonal temps, as the western NOAM ridge inches eastward. LL moisture will be shunted west against the front range of the Rockies by mid this week as the ridge begins to breakdown. This will support semi- active flow locally as a western CONUS trough ejects in pieces the second half of the week. Thus, showers and isold thunderstorms will return to the region along with cooler temps.
Highs will likely top out in the 70s for most areas on Monday, but perhaps be a bit warmer along the I-10 corridor (around 80 degrees).
1246 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Active weather persists through this week as periodic showers and cool temperatures continue under upper level low pressure. Showers and a thunderstorm or two are expected as a cold front continues to cross the region during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
(This afternoon through Monday) Dry air is quickly filtering in from behind a cold front that will push through over the rest of the afternoon. Winds today could pick up to 30mph with higher values across the higher elevations of NE Georgia. Beside fire weather concerns, temps and dewpoints will be pleasant the rest of the short term with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s and overnight lows falling to the mid 40s; upper 30s are possible across the higher elevations.
638 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) Southerly low level flow will increase to 30 knots over the Brush Country and to 20 knots for the coastal plains tonight due to a low pressure area over southwest Texas. The surface winds will remain slightly elevated tonight and keep minimum temperatures around 10 degrees warmer than this morning. With the low pressure area over southwest Texas, the winds will increase Monday with breezy conditions over the Coastal Bend in the afternoon. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s inland to around 70 coast and along the Rio Grande Monday night.
The deep low near the Great Lakes Region has a few subtle boundary layer troughs extending from it. A band of mid level cloudiness was associated with one of these troughs and the clouds move east southeast and will cover any one location up to 5 hours or so. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Monday) Winds will gradually decrease overnight tonight with chilly overnight lows expected, ranging from the lower 40s in the far north to near 50 across the southeast. We'll remain under the influence of the deep upper trough through Monday as the omega block remains in place over the Rocky Mountain states.
(Tonight) Satellite imagery shows a low pressure system spinning over the Great Lakes this evening. As a result, dry conditions under clear skies will make for a relatively cool night with temperatures dropping into the lower 40s with a few spots in the higher terrain potentially dipping into the upper 30s.
935 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 High pressure will bring drier, gusty, and much cooler conditions through mid-week. The cold front extended from near Sanford to Raleigh, Louisburg, and Warrenton moving quickly SE at 930 PM. Multiple low pressure centers will be around the Great Lakes Monday morning, and these low pressure centers will move little over the next 48 hours.
738 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Gusty winds will continue behind the exiting low pressure system. A drier and cooler air mass will build over the area tonight through mid to late week. Deep low pressure will remain over the Great Lakes region with the main issue for the forecast area being strong and gusty winds.
A high amplitude trough continues to progress eastward towards the New England states this evening. (This afternoon through Monday) Dry air is quickly filtering in from behind a cold front that will push through over the rest of the afternoon. Winds today could pick up to 30mph with higher values across the higher elevations of NE Georgia. Beside fire weather concerns, temps and dewpoints will be pleasant the rest of the short term with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s and overnight lows falling to the mid 40s; upper 30s are possible across the higher elevations.
954 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 An upper level low migrating through the Great Lakes will result in a prolonged period of unseasonably chilly, breezy, and cloudy conditions, with rain chances through the first part of the workweek.
Temps will be borderline and the susceptibility of plants that far north are mixed at best, but expect some low lying areas to slip below freezing nonetheless.
Perhaps most notable in the sounding was a 5-6 degree subsidence inversion based at around 850 mb, as a mid-level ridge builds across the Florida Keys.
Otherwise, the remainder of the night will be cool and dry with temperatures dropping to the low and mid 40s.
High pressure aloft will keep Southwest, Central, and North Central Montana mostly dry with mild temperatures into Monday with breezy easterly winds.
1036 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 A deepening low pressure system and cold front will impact the region this evening.
Another weak cold front moves in mid week, however rain chances look to be minimal.
543 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2023 A few cumulus clouds have developed over the higher terrain this afternoon but there is very little vertical development. The axis of a upper level ridge over the western US will slide eastward closer to Colorado on Monday. Highs will reach the low 70s across the plains with gusts up to 20 mph.
731 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Upstream high pressure ridge still in control of Colorado weather under a relatively dry northwest flow aloft. There is just enough moisture and marginal instability for a few evening light rain showers or sprinkles across the higher terrain of Northern Larimer county early this evening. A few cumulus clouds have developed over the higher terrain this afternoon but there is very little vertical development. The axis of a upper level ridge over the western US will slide eastward closer to Colorado on Monday. Highs will reach the low 70s across the plains with gusts up to 20 mph.
The cold front has dropped well south of the peninsula, with dry air continuing to filter in from the northwest across the area. Overnight lows in the upper 50s across rural portions of east central Florida and in the low 60s elsewhere.
610 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 (Thru Tonight) Broad surface ridging down the Plains, on the west side of a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS, will keep things quiet for tonight, and for days to come. Mostly clear skies and light winds will favor radiational cooling tonight, especially in the cooler valleys.
611 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 (This evening through Monday) An omega block was taking shape across the CONUS late this weekend with West Texas on the east side of the ridge.
High pressure will bring warming temperatures more reminiscent of early summer through early in the week.
548 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 With the freezing level at 4K FT AGL, and 60 units of H5 positive vorticity advection pinwheeling thru the base of the mean trof, we received numerous reports of small hail, mainly in our northeast (EVV Tri-State are) today.
454 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Blocking pattern will support dry weather the next couple days along with seasonal temps, as the western NOAM ridge inches eastward. LL moisture will be shunted west against the front range of the Rockies by mid this week as the ridge begins to breakdown. This will support semi- active flow locally as a western CONUS trough ejects in pieces the second half of the week. Thus, showers and isold thunderstorms will return to the region along with cooler temps.
There is a slight chance of patchy frost for parts of Grant, Kay, Garfield, and Noble Counties near sunrise as a few models suggest near-freezing temperatures.
835 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2023 High pressure aloft will keep Southwest, Central, and North Central Montana mostly dry with mild temperatures into Monday with breezy easterly winds.
Overnight lows expected in the lower to mid 50s north of I-10, upper 50s to mid 60s south of I-10.
A much quieter and drier evening across South Florida, as the tail end of a (modified) cold front continues to progress across the region. Cooler/drier air will overspread the CWFA, and thus PoPs are extremely low through the next 24 hours and much of the upcoming week. (Rest of today through Monday) As of 1 PM the last of the storms are pushing offshore as the cold front is beginning to reach the east coast. Weak high pressure over the Gulf will maintain the generally dry airmass for Monday, with mostly sunny skies and nil precipitation chances expected for the first day of May.
244 AM MDT Mon May 1 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a highly amplified cool trough dropping into the eastern two thirds of Canada and the CONUS with a warm ridge building in response over the western third of both. Farther west another trough has closed itself off over the Pacific Northwest coast and is dropping south in further response. Northeast Montana lies in northern to northwestern flow aloft nestled up against the ridge to the west with some cooler air dropping in and still affecting the far east.
(Today and tonight) The forecast area is under northwest mid to upper level flow this morning between an omega block ridge over the Rocky Mountain states and a deep low over the Great Lakes. The ridge will move slowly eastward through tonight with some upstream cirrus spilling over the ridge overnight with some increasing cloud cover over the forecast area. Cooler air behind the front will see temperatures peak in the 70s to near 80 this afternoon.
1132 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 With the freezing level at 4K FT AGL, and 60 units of H5 positive vorticity advection pinwheeling thru the base of the mean trof, we received numerous reports of small hail, mainly in our northeast (EVV Tri-State are) today.