Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With clear skies and light winds, thanks to high pressure, temperatures will fall into the teens area wide tonight. Despite the cold nature of the high, light winds and sunny skies will allow afternoon highs to climb into the 40s. This flow, though warmer in nature will also be rather dry as its origin comes from west Texas.
1126 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 (This evening through Monday) An upper ridge is over the Rockies this afternoon with an upper low over the Great Lakes providing westerly flow aloft over Arkansas. The upper low will move off to the east tonight and the upper ridge will move into the Plains Sunday. The high moves east of the state Monday.
Northwest flow continues with cold air advection through today as high pressure builds into the region. Discussion: A cold high pressure system centered over the Plains states will continue to settle southeast over the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. An upper level low was over southern Quebec and moving slowly east. An elongated upper trough that lies to the southeast of the upper low should cross the eastern Tennessee Valley today and bring the coldest air over the region.
310 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Colder air follows a front this morning while high pressure builds across the mid Mississippi Valley.
1218 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 A passing Arctic air mass and clearing conditions will create cooler than average temperatures overnight. Warmer weather returns Monday and continues into the weekend.
Additional precipitation should be fairly light with rain expected across the lowest elevations. Snow is likely for the higher elevations but additional accumulations should primarily remain below one inch. Slightly higher snowfall amounts may occur for the highest elevations. Temperatures this morning will largely be well below freezing with the exception of the river valleys hovering in the mid 30s. This snow keeps temperatures cooler and these locations should struggle to get out of the 30s into the low 40s. Overnight lows largely remain back above freezing outside of the higher elevations and the far northern plains.
Tomorrow will be warmer with highs in the low to mid 60s across the region.
1042 PM MDT Sat Mar 18 2023 Water Vapor shows upper low over southeastern Ontario, with upper ridge over the western CONUS and next trof just offshore the west coast. At the surface, ridge covers the Dakotas. Warm front will lift northeast across our area with some gusty southwest winds developing, especially across northeast WY, the Black Hills and southern SD. Very mild weather expected Sunday, with some locations reaching into the 60s in snow free areas south/east of the Black Hills as thermal ridge peaks overhead.
This will take early Monday morning low temperatures down to around freezing, notably higher than those of this morning.
Temperatures will moderate quickly Sunday as the high pressure slides to the southeast and southwesterly winds increase to around 20 mph by the afternoon. It will be quite dry behind the departing high pressure. Confidence isn't quite high enough yet to issue fire headlines, but if trends continue to appear warmer, drier or more windy, then a headline would likely be needed, at least for a portion of the area.
There is hardly even a cloud in the sky across western and central Wyoming today! Tomorrow will be much of the same, and even a few degrees warmer! Don't get Though the calendar says Monday is the official start to astronomical Spring, Mother Nature has other ideas. A longwave Pacific-originated trough will slide into the region Monday. The far west could see precipitation start by sunrise Monday morning as the lee side of the trough begins to move in. Precipitation will be pretty light and sporadic at first, but will increase in coverage and intensity as the trough axis moves closer Monday afternoon.
Just about everyone has seen winds turn out of the north with cooler temperatures filtering into the area. This will lead to an area of overrunning with warmer air moving over the colder air at the surface. The main impact of this front is the drastically cooler air. Highs today will only reach into the lower to middle 60s for most. Overnight tonight, low temperatures will fall into the lower 40s to the north to the lower 50s in SWFL.
This will lead to several nights of subfreezing temperatures for portions of the forecast area.
Cool advection on northwesterly winds near 10 mph tonight, behind the cold front from today, will allow lows to drop into the 40s. It will be a chilly night following the frontal passage, with lows dropping to the lower to mid 40s. (Sunday through Monday night) Models have lowered precipitation potential for Sunday, during the day Flagler has the highest chance for some showers. And by Monday, it will be dry with mostly sunny skies other than some showers over the NE FL waters with stronger northeasterly flow as high pressure builds to the north.
As such, did up the lows a degree or so. A cold front is passing southeast through the forecast area late this afternoon and will exit into VA this evening. High pressure settling over the region and near neutral advection should allow valleys to fall off more. The period will begin under the influence of high pressure positioned along the spine of the Appalachians. Aloft, flow will generally be zonal as Eastern Kentucky is sandwiched between broad ridging across the Caribbean and troughing across Eastern Canada.
435 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Dry and unseasonably cool conditions are expected early this week as the region is under the influence of high pressure. The center of the high will gradually shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast by mid-week allowing for a slow return to near seasonable weather.
1037 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 TONIGHT: Strong Arctic high pressure builds through the region overnight, weakening winds and backing them to the southwest. Warming really kicks into gear by the afternoon with favorable low level warm air advection, sunshine, weak ridging aloft, and mixing well into the nocturnal inversion. Southwesterly winds will favor locally enhanced downslope winds lee of the MN Buffalo Ridge. MONDAY: Expect cooler, dry conditions to continue.
1225 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 (Tonight) Breezy/gusty NW winds will continue overnight in wake of a cold front that is pushing SE through the area. In fact, low temperatures tonight may drop as much as 8-10 degrees lower than last night, eventually bottoming out in the low to mid 20s in most locations late tonight into early/mid Sunday morning.
Main forecast update was to extend the low PoP's for a couple more hours, to keep the snow shower mention in vs. Weak bits of energy on the backside of the trough will rotate through the area through the remainder of this afternoon. Surface ridging will inch further east into Illinois tonight, acting to dry things out and put an end to snow showers/flurries. Surface ridging will sink south of the area Sunday night into Monday with southerly return flow setting up in its wake. Near to above normal temperatures return for the new week with highs expected to be back in the low 50s by Monday.
With the daytime heating and light winds expected today, afternoon highs will climb into the lower 40s, which is still 15-20 degrees below normal (normal for this time of year ranges from 58-61 degrees).
and Monday A ridge of high pressure over MN was building into the region. A Canadian cold front will move through north central and far northeast WI late tonight, and through the rest of the forecast area on Monday. Highs on Monday should range from the lower 30s far north to the lower 40s south.
SW flow aloft to keep unsettled weather in the area through the weekend as the weak surface cold front continues to slowly move S ward over the C FL Peninsula this evening with limited rain. The front is expected to stall over S FL late tonight with cooler high pressure building into the region for cool and cloudy conditions most areas overnight as light rain chances should remain limited.
135 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Colder air follows a front this morning while high pressure builds across the mid Mississippi Valley.
Temperatures tonight will be much colder in the upper 20s in some of our AL and GA counties and areas in the FL Panhandle will be near freezing. Expect wind chills to be in the mid to upper 20s throughout the Tri-State region, with the exception of the extreme SE Big Bend, where wind chills will be at or around freezing.
Most spots in the lower elevations will find their way into the 10s, with single digit to below zero values expected across the higher elevations. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer as mid-level temperatures warm up a couple of degrees. Afternoon highs should reach the 50s across the plains with 30s to 40s expected for most of the high country. Short wave ridging Sunday night will bring a dry but cool night, especially for the mountain valleys. This ridge slides off to the east Monday with southwest flow replacing it as the next Pacific storm moves onto the Oregon coast.
Anyway, decided to mix in some warmer MOS temps to the NBM forecast.
A high pressure system is over the Central Plains and looks to move over the lower Mississippi Valley by this evening. Monday will have highs in the low 50s.
With rising height/increasing thickness we expect to see quite a diurnal rise today with highs rebounding into the lower 50s across portions of central KS.
An upper level trough will develop across the western United States by mid to late week.
354 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Dry and unseasonably cool conditions are expected early this week as the region is under the influence of high pressure. The center of the high will gradually shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast by mid-week allowing for a slow return to near seasonable weather.
1214 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Cyclonic northwest flow aloft is set to deamplify tonight ahead of weak ridging in westerly flow for Sunday. Sunday promises a return to breezier SW winds as lee troughing sharpens to our northwest.
1154 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 00Z Upper air analysis shows an upper level low centered near Whitefish Bay and embedded within a large upper level trough encompassing the Continental United States east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, 01Z surface analysis places this morning's reinforcing cold front over Central Alabama, Southern Mississippi, and Louisiana with a 1034 mb ridge of high pressure centered over Eastern Nebraska. Relatively clear skies for the remainder of the night, cold air advection, excellent radiational cooling, and surface dewpoints in the teens to lower 20s should will result in temperatures going below freezing areawide tonight.
A trough diving down from the Pacific Northwest will bring precipitation to the far west beginning by about 11pm Monday.
This ridge is expected to slide SEWD to be situated from the Deep South into the Mid Atlantic States through Monday. We will have off and on cirrus in the short term with the weak upper troughing to zonal flow across the Deep South.
941 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Dry and unseasonably cool conditions are expected early this week as the region is under the influence of high pressure. The center of the high will gradually shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast by mid-week allowing for a slow return to near seasonable weather.
The tail end of a weak trough has brought a band of clouds with scattered snow flurries down from KY this morning.
However, the lower levels will be rather dry, so any chc for showers in the mtns should be after 12z Mon. Over nern CO, a sfc lee trough will become better defined by aftn near the foothills with southwest low level downslope flow. Monday, an upper level trough digs into the Pacific NW pushing the weak ridge over CO to the east. This will support snow showers in the high country through early Tues. Into Weds the upper level trough, once positioned over the west coast, pushes east with an accompanying jet nudging into CO from the SW. Thurs, the main trough pushes through CO bringing an additional chance for showers in the high country and a few showers on the plains.
As the high pressure system begins to move east Sunday morning, surface winds will start to shift south. We could experience a few hours of clearing skies in early afternoon due to the high pressure at the surface and dry west/northwest winds aloft, but as the high weakens and moves east our cloud cover will likely return. The eastward movement and weakening of the high pressure system in the afternoon will allow for return flow at the surface, leading to an increase in moisture and cloud cover Sunday night into Monday, keeping highs above freezing tomorrow night.
1035 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Low clouds with the thermal trough of cold air continues to advect across the forecast area. Temperatures are trending slightly cooler than forecast, so have updated hourly temperatures and max temperatures for today. In addition, also extended the freeze warning to cover the additional time periods of widespread below freezing temperatures. Northwest flow continues with cold air advection through today as high pressure builds into the region. Discussion: A cold high pressure system centered over the Plains states will continue to settle southeast over the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. An upper level low was over southern Quebec and moving slowly east. An elongated upper trough that lies to the southeast of the upper low should cross the eastern Tennessee Valley today and bring the coldest air over the region.
Sunny and warmer today ahead of a cool front expected to arrive tonight.
Satellite imagery shows an upper trough approaching our forecast area. Precipitation will spread over most of the area during the day as the upper trough moves inland. Given the stronger solar and longer daylights, road temperatures will warm up quite a bit during the day, therefore road snow should be minor, even for the higher terrain. Another upper trough will move into the area late tonight with a reinforcing shot of precipitation that will likely last into Monday morning.
Models suggest the highest coverage will be across the south (along and inland from the Treasure Coast), which will remain closest to the front. High cloud cover and cooler northerly winds will keep high temperatures well below normal today. In fact, highs only reaching the lower to mid-60s will approach record cool-highs for several sites. Coastal areas, especially along the Treasure Coast, are forecast to remain in the lower 50s. Cold front will push south of central FL by early this morning, with drier air in the lower levels filtering into northern portions of east central FL. The highest coverage again is expected for the Treasure Coast terminals.
845 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Snow showers north of I-80 will gradually subside as high pressure builds, with otherwise cold and dry conditions persisting through tonight.
634 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Dry and unseasonably cool conditions are expected early this week as the region is under the influence of high pressure. The center of the high will gradually shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast by mid-week allowing for a slow return to near seasonable weather.
This will keep things quiet and dry here today, though temperatures will still be cooler than normal. West-northwest winds will be light compared to previous days and will veer to the southwest by later today allowing warmer air to advect northward for the start of the new week. A high pressure system is over the Central Plains and looks to move over the lower Mississippi Valley by this evening. Monday will have highs in the low 50s.
1054 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Snow showers north of I-80 will gradually subside as high pressure builds, with otherwise cold and dry conditions persisting through tonight.
933 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Colder air follows a front this morning while high pressure builds across the mid Mississippi Valley.
710 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Snow showers north of I-80 will gradually subside as high pressure builds, with otherwise cold and dry conditions persisting through tonight.
646 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Colder air follows a front this morning while high pressure builds across the mid Mississippi Valley.
Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today with the CWA reaching the mid 60s. Waves are forecast to reach 5 to 8 feet in the surf zone once again today which will make for dangerous swimming conditions when coupled with the High Risk of rip currents.
Beside the low shower coverage, skies were mostly cloudy and it has been a warm and muggy night. Most island communities recorded temperatures in the mid 70s, with dew points in the lower 70s. Today's forecast is a bit challenging as a cold front currently located near Central Florida continue its track south towards the Florida Keys and stalls. In the wake of the cold frontal passage, a high pressure system will build in the southeast U. The "colder day and night" will occur on Monday with forecast highs in the lower to mid 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
1011 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Satellite and surface analysis imagery are showing the cold front across South Florida. In our area, cooler conditions this morning behind the cold front with mostly cloudy skies persisting today into tonight.
452 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Weak upper-level ridging over the Intermountain West and High Plains over the next few days will keep temperatures across most of the CWA near-average. Luckily, the weak ridge will hang on through the afternoon, leading to high temperatures similar to Sunday's, but with increasing clouds. This is a great set-up for the Sierra Madre Range to receive a quick foot of snowfall along the highest peaks of the range.
353 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Weak upper-level ridging over the Intermountain West and High Plains over the next few days will keep temperatures across most of the CWA near-average. Luckily, the weak ridge will hang on through the afternoon, leading to high temperatures similar to Sunday's, but with increasing clouds. This is a great set-up for the Sierra Madre Range to receive a quick foot of snowfall along the highest peaks of the range.
Clear skies and surface ridging over the area will then persist through the day Monday. Light winds under the ridge will be more favorable for decoupling and cooling tonight (compared to last night), and this will allow for the coldest night of this cold snap (and for the month), with forecast mins of mostly 10-20. Monday night lows will be well below freezing for most places, but weak warm air advection will favor a bit larger ridge/valley difference.
A weak cold front moving across the forecast area, is currently analyzed over the northern valley. There is still some signal for a moistening midlevel layer as a weak upper trough builds into the region.
318 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 (This evening through Monday) A dry, cold airmass continues to settle in across the Southeastern CONUS following a secondary cold front overnight. Winds will shift out of the NE, but with clear skies and dry air aloft, surface RH values will drop again into the low 20 percent range.
250 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be weather associated with cold frontal passages tonight into tomorrow. Currently, northwest flow aloft with an initial cold front pushing south across North Dakota. Fog is also expected over the higher terrain of western North Dakota tonight/Monday AM as winds become easterly and upslope. Daytime highs will also be noticeably cooler for Monday, about 10-15 degrees colder than what we are experiencing today.
This will lead to several nights of near freezing temperatures for portions of the forecast area.
114 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Low clouds with the thermal trough of cold air continues to advect across the forecast area. Temperatures are trending slightly cooler than forecast, so have updated hourly temperatures and max temperatures for today. In addition, also extended the freeze warning to cover the additional time periods of widespread below freezing temperatures. Northwest flow continues with cold air advection through today as high pressure builds into the region. Discussion: A cold high pressure system centered over the Plains states will continue to settle southeast over the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. An upper level low was over southern Quebec and moving slowly east. An elongated upper trough that lies to the southeast of the upper low should cross the eastern Tennessee Valley today and bring the coldest air over the region.
The cold front continues draped across southern Florida with mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions in our region. For Monday, moisture should continue to move to the Atlantic allowing high pressure to control the weather pattern.
Temperatures have struggled to get above freezing and in fact, as of this writing, Crossville (and many spots on the Plateau) is still below. Clouds will clear out this evening, we'll get max radiational cooling and with us starting from a cooler point than originally thought, I think the NBM is way too warm.
211 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 High pressure builds across the mid Mississippi Valley tonight.
Showers associated with an upper trough will spread into portions of southeast Oregon this afternoon. The precip amounts will be light with less than an inch of snow in the higher elevations.
226 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 A high pressure building over the ArkLaMiss region will continue to enable drier and cooler conditions across the area. Lows tonight into Monday morning will plummet into the lower to middle 20s, prompting us to issue a Freeze Warning across the CWA from 8pm - 10 am Monday morning. The potential for fire danger will arise tomorrow as minimum relative humidity values dip into the low 20s in the east and upper 20s in the west.
Monday, leeside troughing on the Front Range will increase return flow, fostering further temp recovery. Monday night, a mountain wave will begin developing late over the Guadalupes in advance of the next upper trough approaching the west coast.
The high will continue moving however and by sunrise will be well south and east of the area. Have held off on any headlines for now as the highest winds will be west of Highway 65 and the lowest RH values will be well east of Highway 65.
Tonight into Monday: Easterly surface winds beneath a near-surface inversion, and a backdoor cold front moving in from western Manitoba may allow for patchy freezing fog to form after 05Z tonight and last through mid-morning.
(This evening through Monday) Shallow ridging from 700-500 mb is set to depart the region tonight ahead of a gradual influx of high clouds.
348 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Any lingering snow showers should end tonight as high pressure builds into the region for the early part of the week.
124 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023 High pressure building in through tonight eases the wind, but keeps it very dry and cold.
235 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Abundant sunshine was observed across the area early this afternoon, with temperatures in the lower to middle 30s as of 2 PM. 1) Dry conditions continue tonight through Monday 2) Stronger winds return tonight, lasting through Monday The area of high pressure over the southern Mississippi River valley, that has helped keep conditions dry today, will gradually translate eastward tonight. With increasing warm air advection, high temperatures Monday will warm into the upper 40s northeast to the lower/middle 50s southwest. Deep trough in the western United States for much of this week with a zonal to southwest flow aloft across our area.
1157 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 (Issued 1157 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023) Modest Wswly winds and warm advection will prevail this afternoon into Mon as polar high pressure over the srn Great Plains shifts to the se USA. High temps could reach the lower 50s in far srn WI including MKE, while highs in the middle 40s toward central WI where some snow cover remains. Gehring (Issued 346 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023) Today through Monday: A sunny and warmer day is in store as subsidence is present with in the northwest 500 mb flow. Southwest winds will pick up this afternoon into this evening as a low pressure axis sinks down into the area tightening the pressure gradient and bringing with it some stronger winds aloft.