Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Discussion: The current synoptic weather pattern across the CONUS is defined by troughing across the eastern US, troughing off the West Coast over the Pacific Ocean, with ridging sandwiched between them over much of the west-central US. North northwesterly flow is in place over our area on the back edge of the eastern trough, with 3 pm temperatures ranging from the mid 30s to the mid 40s. It will be considerably warmer tonight compared to last night, with overnight lows in the mid 20s to near 30 degrees.
(Now through Saturday) High clouds will continue to stream over the area this afternoon as the upper trough moves across the region. Dry and cool conditions continue through Saturday as as high pressure builds over the area.
510 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Low clouds will soon exit the eastern CWA leaving clear skies through early Saturday morning as subsidence sets in behind an upper trough. While the GFS does produce some light QPF with this system, the NAM does not and the low levels are quite dry leading me to keep just a chance of sprinkles with the system.
211 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2023 Updated Aviation High pressure over the Intermountain West will help bring breezy to windy conditions today, especially at higher elevations. As an upper- level ridge builds across our region, a gradual warm up will occur for the weekend.
433 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2023 Low level cold air advection persists late today in the wake of last night's cold front, and the weather system's upper level trough has just about reached us from the northwest.
534 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2023 Seasonably cold conditions will prevail through tonight, with snow showers gradually diminishing as high pressure builds.
By the pre-dawn hours, the gradient will tighten a bit across the north with flow shifting around the southwest on the back side of the ridge.
447 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2023 Updated Aviation High pressure over the Intermountain West will help bring breezy to windy conditions today, especially at higher elevations. As an upper- level ridge builds across our region, a gradual warm up will occur for the weekend.
Look for a few degrees of additional warming throughout the afternoon with interior areas reaching into the low/mid 60s. The aforementioned low pressure system will drop southward over the weekend allowing for a ridge of high pressure to build aloft.
An anomalous plume of moisture (1 of 2) will track around the upper ridge over the northeast Pacific tonight into Saturday, and move southwest of the region.
Early evening surface map indicated high pressure arcing northeast from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. Thus lows in the low/mid 20s will be common with a slow rising trend after midnight. The net effect will be a warmer, breezier day with afternoon highs approaching 50 degrees and occasional gusts between 25-30 mph. Vertical profiles look awfully dry in the lowest few kilometers, and while this will limit coverage, there's some evidence that moisture may fill in just enough to support a stray shower west of Interstate 55.
410 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2023 Low level cold air advection persists late today in the wake of last night's cold front, and the weather system's upper level trough has just about reached us from the northwest.
648 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2023 A passing cold front will bring some showers through this evening and a brief end to the unseasonably warm temperatures. Cooler and drier weather will return late tonight through the weekend with much warmer temperatures again next work week. May see a few sprinkles with cold front which was just reaching the western portion of forecast area around 7pm.
1030 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) A weak upper level ridge is building over Texas this afternoon. Surface winds continue from the northern half of the compass turning around a high pressure center. A cooler, direr airmass is settling over our CWA. Winds have been gradually decreasing and this will continue as the center of the high moves eastward. Lows in the morning will be mainly in the lower to middle 30s. Expect freezing temperatures over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. Southerly to southeasterly flow will develop Saturday as the ridge continues to move east. High temperatures Saturday will be a couple of degrees warmer than today from the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
(Today and tonight) As a low amplitude s/wv trough approaches from northern Mexico today, and a northern stream trough progresses eastward through the northern and central Rockies, lee surface cyclogenesis will continue through today. With the mid-high level cloud cover today, expect plenty of virga ahead of the s/wv trough, especially this afternoon across central into north central Oklahoma. With the westerly winds overnight, and another wave of high clouds progressing out of western trough, lows tonight are expected to stay above freezing with mostly upper 30s and lower 40s.
1128 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Summary: A weak warm front moving across the region this afternoon will lead to some flurries across the Borderlands overnight. A brief warm up for this weekend with temps climbing above freezing.
1114 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2023 A passing cold front will bring some showers through this evening and a brief end to the unseasonably warm temperatures. Cooler and drier weather will return late tonight through the weekend with much warmer temperatures again next work week.
232 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 * Breezy today with warmer temperatures Quiet but cold conditions continue across central Indiana early this morning, with high pressure providing clear skies. Temperatures were in the lower 20s. The high pressure will sink farther southeast today, keeping the area in southwest flow. Warm advection and some sunshine (filtered during the afternoon by the high clouds) will boost temperatures into the 40s. If high clouds are slower to arrive or are thinner than expected, then temperatures may get a little warmer.
1217 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 Seasonably cold conditions will prevail through tonight, with flurries gradually diminishing as high pressure builds in.
The Central Ridge and Valley region will see just flurries, while dry conditions with gradual clearing will be found over the Lower Susq Valley. It should be a nice start to the weekend with sfc winds backing more to the SW by later in the afternoon as high pressure slides off well to the south of the region.
201 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 Cool, dry high pressure will settle into the region today. Cold advection behind yesterday's cold front will lead to a brisk morning with temperatures mainly in the 30s. As the airmass moderates some through the day, temperatures should be several degrees warmer than previous day.
(Through Tonight) Much cooler temperatures today after the cold front passage after several record high temperatures on Friday. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 40s for inland SE GA, mid to upper 40s in inland NE FL and the SE GA coast, and lower to mid 50s near the NE FL coast.
Upper-level ridging will begin to rule starting late this morning keeping moisture at bay. Clouds will help limit radiational cooling resulting in warmer low temperatures than last night.
Short term forecast remains on track compared to this time yesterday, with very strong south-southwest winds expected through much of the day Saturday as the surface pressure gradient tightens directly over southwest KS between high pressure over Dixie Alley and a deepening lee cyclone over the northern plains. These strong downsloping winds will also contribute to the continuation of the warming trend, with afternoon highs reaching into the low to mid-50s.
This drags a cold front that stalls out across Lake Superior and southern Ontario. temperatures will already be slowly rising before sunrise, and topping out in the low 30's in the afternoon.
1014 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2023 Updated Aviation High pressure over the Intermountain West will help bring breezy to windy conditions today, especially at higher elevations. As an upper- level ridge builds across our region, a gradual warm up will occur for the weekend.
MET/MAV guidance are both 5-10 degrees warmer than NBM.
103 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 Cool, dry high pressure will settle into the region today. Cold advection behind yesterday's cold front will lead to a brisk morning with temperatures mainly in the 30s.
Cold high pressure builds in this morning, then gives way to a milder balance of a dry weekend. * High pressure brings dry weather for the weekend. High pressure is nosing its way in and will continue to do so through the morning. Snow showers are tapering off and the low stratus deck is eroding from NW to SE. Overnight lows for the lowlands will be in the lower to mid 20's with the mountains in the teens and 20's. Highs for today will be in the mid to upper 40's for the lowlands with the mountains in the 40's and 30's.
Temps should bottom out in the low 20s overnight. The ridge axis will move east of the area through this morning and a light south wind will get going. There will be a few middle/high clouds but expecting temps 10-12 degrees warmer today than what we saw yesterday.
922 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 (Issued 922 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023) Low pressure will cross James Bay overnight. Temperatures tanked into the teens over most of southern WI this evening, but expect them to recover into the lower 20s by early Saturday morning with warm air advection and steady winds overhead. Cronce (Issued 236 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023) Tonight and Saturday: A ridge of high pressure moving east across the Great Lakes Region will keep conditions dry across southern Wisconsin through Saturday. The increasing winds are due to the increase pressure gradient between the exiting ridge axis and weak trough passing to the north of Lake Superior.
943 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Winds have moderated this evening as high pressure continues to build across the northern gulf coast. Other than scattered high clouds, the favorable radiational cooling environment should allow for temperatures to fall to near freezing tonight across all but the immediate coastline with a light freeze expected across central Louisiana and interior parts of southeast Texas.
These temps may drop a few more degrees given the clear skies and dew pts in the lower 20s/near 20F. A strong area of high pressure building into the region from the Plains states is helping to usher this cooler/drier air into the area. Temps later today should at least be a bit warmer compared to Fri given the mostly sunny skies, as afternoon highs climb into the lower/mid 50s for most spots.
Dewpoint depressions across the east are fairly small, plus we are advecting warmer air aloft over a colder dome of air near the surface, so not out of the question. Upper ridging will be suppressed tonight under a back door cold front and weak upper trough. Cloud cover may increase due to numerous short waves in the upper trough and increasing mid level moisture.
Highs in the lower 50s, southwest and south winds 15 to 20 mph gusting to 35 mph by the afternoon.
1227 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 (06Z TAFS) A weak cold front continues to move south through the area, with a brief period of IFR CIGs accompanying the front.
Winds will become lighter as a high pressure builds eastward. Therefore, have bumped temperatures cooler in the forecast. As high pressure builds over the area tonight, skies will clear and gusty northwest wind will diminish allowing temperatures to fall into the mid/upper 20s. This cold weather episode will be short-lived however as the airmass modifies quickly under a building upper level ridge and increasing sun angle.
1037 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) Upper-level ridging will build over the Panhandles this afternoon which will allow for light winds and clear skies. At least some areas in the southern Texas Panhandle may observe lows in the low-40s.
1043 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Low clouds will soon exit the eastern CWA leaving clear skies through early Saturday morning as subsidence sets in behind an upper trough. While the GFS does produce some light QPF with this system, the NAM does not and the low levels are quite dry leading me to keep just a chance of sprinkles with the system.
1233 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 A trough will push east of the local area tonight before high pressure builds over the forecast area through the weekend.
145 AM MST Sat Feb 18 2023 Upper-level flow is nearly zonal over the northern tier of states, while a low pressure system spins off the CA coast. At the surface, winds are light and westerly as a trough approaches from the NW. As its cold front slides through the Dakotas, some very light snow will be possible over portions of the area, with minimal accumulations expected.
1111 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Winds have moderated this evening as high pressure continues to build across the northern gulf coast. Other than scattered high clouds, the favorable radiational cooling environment should allow for temperatures to fall to near freezing tonight across all but the immediate coastline with a light freeze expected across central Louisiana and interior parts of southeast Texas.
1054 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Winds will become lighter as a high pressure builds eastward. Therefore, have bumped temperatures cooler in the forecast. As high pressure builds over the area tonight, skies will clear and gusty northwest wind will diminish allowing temperatures to fall into the mid/upper 20s. This cold weather episode will be short-lived however as the airmass modifies quickly under a building upper level ridge and increasing sun angle.
/NEW/ /This Weekend/ A gradual warm up is in store, especially late in the weekend as the current cold high pressure center over the area transits to the east. This will ramp up low level southerly flow and warm advection, though today a few mid level impulse will lift northeast from the detached upper low well west of the area. After a chilly start around freezing once again, today will feature increasing mid to high clouds from these impulses which will temper the warm advection to the point of highs remaining in the 50s. The higher cloud canopy remains entrenched across the area tonight with continued gusty south winds 10 to 15 mph.
The dew point depressions should remain a few degrees and with some wind should not allow any freezing fog. the high will begin moving east towards the eastern US. Flow around this high will put Alabama in easterly flow with cool and dry air continuing to advect into the state.
920 PM PST Fri Feb 17 2023 A weak weather system brings light spotty precipitation to the lowlands and accumulating snow to the mountain passes Saturday.
With the mainly clear skies and light (although not completely calm) winds, temps have dropped into the lower/mid 20s just about everywhere. These breezy conditions amidst a well-mixed BL, in tandem with abundant sunshine and LL WAA, will help temps rebound nicely (~25 degrees or so) from the lower/mid 20s near daybreak to the mid/upper 40s by late afternoon. This will help keep the pressure gradient a bit tighter and the winds up a bit more tonight, which will inhibit temps from dropping quite as much -- mainly into the lower/mid 30s.
1035 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance Warm advection is occurring in the low levels this evening as a clipper passes across central Canada. Surface ridging moved in over the morning hours, clearing out skies and bringing in dry conditions for the afternoon hours. A weak cold front will cross the region overnight, briefly swinging winds back to the west for the early morning hours. A decent amount of sunshine should be able to reach the surface during this period, so went with the warmer guidance, especially for the snow free sliver of land visible on satellite, approximately stretching from Wood/Portage counties to Menominee. Saturday Night Through Friday The extended models continue 500mb ridging across the Pacific Ocean with downstream troughing across the central United States.
1003 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2023 A trough will push east of the local area tonight before high pressure builds over the forecast area through the weekend.
1142 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Mostly clear skies are expected tonight, with min temperatures warmer than last night, as warm advection and southerly winds begin to increase. Could see some highs in Sat climb into the lower 50s and possibly reach 60 across southern KS by Sun afternoon.
930 PM PST Fri Feb 17 2023 Saturday should be a little warmer over the region as high clouds decrease, though locally gusty easterly winds will continue near the coastal slopes and below passes at times.
127 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 A passing cold front will bring some showers through this evening and a brief end to the unseasonably warm temperatures. Cooler and drier weather will return late tonight through the weekend with much warmer temperatures again next work week.
Slightly falling dewpoints over mainland southwest Florida were indicative of the cold front moving into the southeast Gulf waters. Locally, temperatures were parked around 72-74F with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Most of the moisture converging in the frontal zone will be 800 mb and below, with subsidence aloft courtesy of strong yet narrow mid-level ridging aloft. High pressure will quickly pass over the eastern United States in the next 24 hours, with briefly an 8 mb pressure gradient from Havana to Jacksonville this evening. Aloft, the mid level ridge remains over either Cuba or the Straits of Florida, with heights oscillating in the 589 to 591 Dm range. Enough moisture could be present for a midday cloud line over the Lower Keys Sunday, however RH at 700 mb remains scant.
After the chilly end to the work week, it will be a nice start to the weekend with sfc winds backing more to the SW by later in the afternoon as high pressure slides off well to the south of the region. Fair and dry conditions will prevail through Sunday with highs warming to well above normal Sunday afternoon as the high moves offshore.
514 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) This morning's surface analysis indicates a 1028 hPa high pressure extending across the Southeast and Southern Plains. Mostly clear skies and light winds associated with this anticyclone have allowed for temperatures to fall into the 30s-40s across South Texas. This area of high pressure is forecast to shift east-northeast over the next 36 hours. This will result in warmer temperatures tonight and Sunday.
702 AM MST Sat Feb 18 2023 Today through Sunday morning, another extended lobe of low pressure spills down over the Rocky Mountains with another round of sprinkles or flurries across the region.
As winds return from the Gulf dew points increase, temperatures tonight are likely to be at least 6 to 10 degrees warmer with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
300 AM MST Sat Feb 18 2023 High pressure over the Intermountain West will help bring breezy to windy conditions today, especially at higher elevations. As an upper- level ridge builds across our region, a gradual warm up will occur for the weekend.
Temperatures trend a little warmer through the weekend with most of the region remaining dry.
744 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 Cool, dry high pressure will settle into the region today. Cold advection behind yesterday's cold front will lead to a brisk morning with temperatures mainly in the 30s. As the airmass moderates some through the day, temperatures should be several degrees warmer than previous day. Highs in the low to mid 60s, with overnight lows Sunday night in the mid 40s. Mid-week temperatures will feel much more Springlike across the region as upper ridge south of the area extends further north.
Tomorrow will be even warmer and the rain-free weekend will give our rivers and creeks a chance to shed some of the runoff from our recent heavy rain.
High temperatures today are forecast in the low to mid 50s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, where the thicker cloud cover is in place, and upper 50s to low 60s elsewhere.
Broad mid level ridge from the lower MS Valley thru the Gulf States with a westerly flow across the Ohio Valley. Southerly low level flow develops on the backside of retreating high pressure. This will help keep the pressure gradient a bit tighter and the winds up a bit more tonight, which will inhibit temps from dropping quite as much -- mainly into the lower/mid 30s.
Despite the cloudiness, temperatures will still warm into the low to mid 50s with gusty southerly winds.
High pressure crosses today giving a warm day. The first low pressure in a series of systems crosses this evening bringing a light coating of snow to the International Borderlands overnight.
The lower dewpoints will allow afternoon relative humidity to lower into the mid 20 to lower 30 percentile for most locations.
* Breezy today with warmer temperatures Quiet but cold conditions continue across central Indiana early this morning, with high pressure providing clear skies. Temperatures were in the lower 20s. The high pressure will sink farther southeast today, keeping the area in southwest flow. Warm advection and some sunshine (filtered during the afternoon by the high clouds) will boost temperatures into the 40s. If high clouds are slower to arrive or are thinner than expected, then temperatures may get a little warmer.
High pressure will begin to build in over South Florida behind the front today, and the interaction between both features will result in gusty northeasterly flow across the region. Increased cloud cover and the NE winds will help keep temperatures somewhat cooler than days past, with high temperatures capping out in the high 70s and low 80s, and lows dropping to the mid-upper 60s. A warming trend will Begin as we close the weekend, with highs back in the low-mid 80s.
418 AM MST Sat Feb 18 2023 Upper-level flow is nearly zonal over the northern tier of states, while a low pressure system spins off the CA coast. At the surface, winds are light and westerly as a trough approaches from the NW. As its cold front slides through the Dakotas, some very light snow will be possible over portions of the area, with minimal accumulations expected.
Weak southerly low level flow has already become established and the low level WAA regime will improve later this morning as southwest low level flow increases. Still this shouldn't prevent highs in the low-mid 50s. A low amplitude migratory short wave trof is still on track to traverse the region tonight. While there is some decent forcing/lift with this wave, there is only brief collocation of the lift and accompanying mid level moisture, and the low levels are quite dry. This combined with the persistent low level WAA regime and southwest low level flow should yield even warmer temperatures on Sunday with highs 10 to 15+ degrees above normal.
This weekend, an upper level trof slides southeastward across the region. After this event, the area receives only a brief break, before the next upper level trof enters the region. As the week progresses, a deep upper level trof digs into the area.
Gusty southwesterly winds will develop on the northern periphery of a sprawling ridge axis extending from Quebec to the Gulf Coast. Even warmer conditions are expected on Sunday as highs soar into the middle 50s. /Canadian border will push a weak cold front through central Illinois Sunday night.
(Tonight through Sunday night) This morning's surface analysis indicates a 1028 hPa high pressure extending across the Southeast and Southern Plains. Mostly clear skies and light winds associated with this anticyclone have allowed for temperatures to fall into the 30s-40s across South Texas. This area of high pressure is forecast to shift east-northeast over the next 36 hours. This will result in warmer temperatures tonight and Sunday.
502 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 High pressure will build towards the area today then slide southeast of the region tonight into Sunday. A warm front will lift north of the area Sunday night.