Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Additionally, temperatures are running a few warmer than yesterday afternoon, which are also getting assistance from offshore flow. Speaking of offshore flow, a passing upper level low to the east is helping to set the stage for offshore flow. The biggest increase in wind has been over the higher peaks and aligned gaps/passes. Rest of the upcoming work week looks quiet as high pressure builds over the region. Winds aloft will decrease by late morning and winds at the surface will shift easterly tomorrow afternoon and evening the upper level low treks south and eastward. SFO Bridge Approach. King Tides, which result in the highest high tides and the lowest low tides of the year, will continue through weekend.
Tranquil conditions will continue today into tonight as weak ridging aloft shifts east through the Central Plains while a much drier/colder air mass dominates the Western High Plains. Look for afternoon highs only up into the 30s(F) across west central and central Kansas with temperatures possibly pushing the lower 40s(F) closer to the Oklahoma border where less snowpack exists.
Temperatures were also adjusted warmer because temps have remained in the low to mid 30s. Stoinskers MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with northwest flow and meso ridge trough couplet embedded in it with the chinook ridge over northeast Montana and the closed low over southern Idaho. Behind this a large ridge is developing over the northeast Pacific while cold air is beginning to pool up over the Alaskan north slope. At which point a disturbance and weak cold front will bring snow showers and low clouds to the region through the afternoon and evening hours.
1259 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023 (06Z TAFS) VFR/MVFR conditions expected over the next few hours as a cold front moves over the region tonight with showers and isolated storms.
100 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023 Snow, mixed with some rain, will change to all snow later tonight as low pressure moves up the east coast.
1105 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 (This evening through Monday Night) Dry, seasonable wx will prevail tonight and Monday with surface-mid level ridging in control.
A mid latitude trough is swinging through the eastern United States this evening. The Atlantic high, to the low's east, extends a ridge southwestward then west southwestward across the Bahamas and Cuba. Relatively warm conditions are in place with temperatures in the mid 70s and dew points in the lower 70s. The cold front will sag further southeastward into Central Florida through the overnight period. While there is some confluence through the lower levels, the weakness of the surface flow and the considerable dry air, with no expectations of sufficient moistening, will keep rain chances slim to none. Due to the rather high dew points in the lower 70s, expect overnight lows to struggle to push into the lower 70s. A cold front continues to weaken as it traverses southward down the Florida Peninsula.
As the low pressure center begins its southward dig into western Arizona this evening, impacts are being felt throughout the region. Snow showers begin to increase over the higher terrain of far northern Arizona this evening, then increase in coverage spreading southward through the overnight. Showers begin to taper off through the evening as the low begins to propagate eastward into New Mexico. With the cold low directly overhead, snow levels fall down to around 3000-3500 feet, thus much of the area (outside of the lowest elevations) will see some snow with this storm. The greatest accumulations are mainly expected to be focused over the higher terrain, above 5500 feet and in the northward-facing upslope regions.
131 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2023 The warm front continues to push east across the state, with scattered light snow showers. After a fairly quiet evening with increasing clouds, a cold front associated with a clipper system will move across the state from west to east tonight. There could be pockets of freezing drizzle or freezing rain as well along and behind the front as the mid layers dry out, although confidence is not high in that happening or being impactful. High temperatures behind the front will be slightly cooler than today on Monday. Perhaps later in the week are better chances for accumulating light snow, although clusters analysis showing models are having a bit of disagreement on how far southwest to extend a trough off of the Hudson low.
1048 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2023 Current water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper low dipping into the Desert Southwest this evening. With clouds coming in, there's a good chance that was the low there. With the clouds coming in a bit earlier, lows may end up being a degree or two warmer than previously forecast. Models show an upper low circulation, now over the desert southwest, to move southeastward into southern Arizona to be just west of El Paso by 00Z Monday late day.
Cold front/wind shift entering northwest GA at this time with a few showers moving across the I-20/I-85 areas.
However, a stray storm or two can not be ruled out across northwestern and west central Kansas overnight as thunderstorms move out of the higher terrain of eastern Colorado. Towards the surface, an area of low pressure will be found across eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas.
The upper-level pattern has once again become more amplified across the E CONUS as a strong ridge axis remains to the west. A southwesterly surface flow has returned with the FL peninsula at the base of a broad trough axis. However, there is more moisture to work with today given that the FL peninsula is at the base of the trough axis. The trough axis and higher moisture start to lift out tomorrow, but a southwesterly flow remains. As the trough axis continues to lift northward, the flow will shift more ENE, then E, and it looks like ESE towards the weekend.
316 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 After patchy morning fog, mainly dry weather is expected through mid week under high pressure. Rain chances return by the end of the work week with a crossing cold front. The region will be on the western side of the upper trough, with NW flow aloft.
639 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night) With the strong mid/upper level ridge building back into the area, look for widespread inland high temperatures in the triple digits with some well inland locations (generally north of I-10 and west of the Highway 59/69 corridor) possibly approaching 105 degrees today and again tomorrow. Locations along the immediate coast will continue to see highs in the low to mid 90s.
308 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 The Northern Rockies will remain under a southwest flow aloft today and Tuesday, with the upper-level ridge axis to the east, and a trough to the west.
Dewpoints in the mid to low 60s and highs in the low 90s will mean heat indices stay below heat advisory criteria.
538 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level ridge continues it's gradual shift eastward, leading to another dry day with a slight upward tick of warmer temperatures.
317 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Another hot day is in store today as the core of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere sits over the Central and Southern Plains today. During the afternoon hours, an area of low pressure is expected to develop on the lee side of the Rockies. Tomorrow, the area of high pressure is expected to be nudged south over Oklahoma and Texas. as the pronounced upper level ridge over the central CONUS flattens/ deamplifies (late this week). as deamplification of the central CONUS ridge commences.
Otherwise a continuation of pleasant summer weather continues today into Tuesday with comfortable humidity levels thanks to dew pts in the 50s and surface ridging.
Afternoon highs will be a few degrees cooler today, low 90s, thus allowing the heat advisory to expire yesterday. Heat indices have potential to reach low 100s, but the cloud coverage and shower activity may play a role in keeping the temperatures cooler to prevent heat advisory criteria. Same situation will continue on Tuesday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s, but sea breeze and shower advancement will play a large role in the peak heat indices.
The Heat Advisory may be expanded beyond Tuesday as the upper level ridge builds in and pushes the oppressive heat farther east. Lows in the high 60s to mid 70s are expected elsewhere.
Afternoon highs still look to climb into the lower 90s/near 90F for most spots, with max heat indices only a couple of degrees higher given the drier air in place with the passage of a weak cold front last night.
938 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 A cold front will cross the region today.
Looking at GOES 16 Day Cloud Phase Distinction, the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell that was supposed to move over the Keys today has stalled over the Bahamas. The ridge over the Central United States is helping to nudge the western side of the Eastern United States trough southward leading to an extension of this trough through the Florida Peninsula down to the Keys. This is helping to create a squeeze play with the ridge over the Atlantic basically leaving the TUTT cell with no where to go but to remain in place over the Bahamas. From synopsis, weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward across the Bahamas and into South Florida and the Keys will maintain light mainly easterly breezes across the Keys coastal waters through the week.
530 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 After patchy morning fog, mainly dry weather is expected through mid week under high pressure. Rain chances return by the end of the work week with a crossing cold front. The region will be on the western side of the upper trough, with NW flow aloft. Generally dry weather and near seasonable temperatures are expected, through there could be an isolated shower east of a FKL-IDI line Tuesday as weak vorticity advection rotates through the main trough.
Dew points should mix out to the low to mid 60s this afternoon.
634 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Today and tonight: The current pattern is characterized by perturbed northerly flow aloft around an upper trough along the East Coast with a weak and somewhat diffuse stationary surface front extending from the Mid South to the Central Gulf Coast. 5" even as surface dewpoints remain in the low 70s.
1044 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 After patchy morning fog, mainly dry weather is expected through mid week under high pressure. Rain chances return by the end of the work week with a crossing cold front. The region will be on the western side of the upper trough, with NW flow aloft. Generally dry weather and near seasonable temperatures are expected, through there could be an isolated shower east of a FKL-IDI line Tuesday as weak vorticity advection rotates through the main trough.
615 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Today and tonight) Another round of hot and dry conditions are expected today with strong high pressure aloft across much of the area.
631 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Much of the same for the last day of July and first day of August as the Summer 598dm ridge has centered itself once again over the northern portions of the Texas. Expect near or slightly above normal heat which ranges from 96 at BRO to 100 at MFE and the lower 100s farther west. Our atmosphere is shown to dry out through Tuesday as the ridge becomes anchored in place the first half of this week.
A rather nice day is in store with maxTs in the upper 80s and minTs in the low to mid 60s. If the higher dewpoints are slower to mix out, a few isolated showers or thunderstorms may be able to survive and clip our far western counties. As a 594 dm ridge struggles to build into the FA, each additional wave will shift a bit more east.
643 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through the first half of the week.
Hot and humid conditions will persist across the area through the short-term period as upper level ridging continues to build aloft.
647 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 An upper level disturbance and a weak cold front will bring some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday. High pressure builds back by mid-week with persistent below average temperatures, comfortable humidity levels, and sunny and fair weather.
Today and Tue will serve as "transition days" as SSW flow between a high pressure center to our SE over TX and low pressure to our NW over British Columbia begin transporting increasing monsoonal moisture into SE Idaho.
918 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Pleasant morning ongoing as high pressure remains firmly in control across the region. 13Z temperatures generally ranged from the mid 60s to the low 70s. The high will remain draped across the region today with light N/NE flow.
Meanwhile, the persistent upper high center to our west, conts to provide a NWly steering flow acrs the region. NE AR wl rmn in the relatively 'cooler' airmass today. Heading into Tue, the upper high wl begin to bld sloly back into western AR, allowing the hot and humid airmass to expand into the region.
954 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through the first half of the week.
Slightly cooler conditions are anticipated Tuesday with additional showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly early in the day.
An upper level trough remains centered along the British Columbia coast with high pressure centered inland, east of the area.
Quiet morning continues as weak westerly flow south of a trough over the southeastern U.
630 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 An upper level disturbance and a weak cold front will bring some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday. High pressure builds back by mid-week with persistent below average temperatures, comfortable humidity levels, and sunny and fair weather.
526 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Another hot day is in store today as the core of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere sits over the Central and Southern Plains today. During the afternoon hours, an area of low pressure is expected to develop on the lee side of the Rockies. Tomorrow, the area of high pressure is expected to be nudged south over Oklahoma and Texas. as the pronounced upper level ridge over the central CONUS flattens/ deamplifies (late this week). as deamplification of the central CONUS ridge commences.
-------------------------- [Discussion] -------------------------- Mid-level water vapor satellite imagery shows thunderstorm clusters rippling through west to northwest flow along the periphery of an upper ridge centered over the western/central Great Plains region. After a refreshingly cool morning featuring lows in the low to mid 60s, we'll bounce back into the mid 80s for a seasonable and rather pleasant afternoon.
739 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 After patchy morning fog, mainly dry weather is expected through mid week under high pressure. Rain chances return by the end of the work week with a crossing cold front. The region will be on the western side of the upper trough, with NW flow aloft. Generally dry weather and near seasonable temperatures are expected, through there could be an isolated shower east of a FKL-IDI line Tuesday as weak vorticity advection rotates through the main trough.
627 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 A cold front will cross the region today.
The upper level high will continue to slowly shift eastward bringing more south/southwest moist flow increase PW values over 1" which is around the climatological 90th percentile for late July into early August.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows mid and upper-level moisture streaming northward on the western periphery of a ridge of high pressure centered over the U. 10" or greater) are highest southeast of Ely in the Great Basin National park area reaching around 20% in the higher elevations.
An outflow boundary from the earlier MCS has moved all the way into southeast OK at this point, with cooler and somewhat more humid air behind it. Low temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s for most areas. The lower atmosphere will warm compared to yesterday, with 1-2C of warming at 850 hPa in model guidance. Forecast highs are generally 1-3F warmer than yesterday, which translates to the upper 90s to low 100s.
623 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Today and tonight) The heat creeps up today with the arrival of a broad upper high from northern New Mexico. Water vapor imagery captured a NW-SE axis of deeper drying/subsidence from ABQ-LBB which should undergo little change as the high drifts over swrn OK by tonight.
649 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 The cooler conditions will continue through much of the work week.
738 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Refreshed grids to account for current temperatures being several degrees cooler than forecast, especially north of the Mountain Parkway where fog was not as widespread and where there was optimal radiational cooling. A quiet and pleasant period is on tap through Tuesday afternoon as high pressure exerts control over the region. Temperatures and humidity will remain on the lower side of normal for this time of year as drier air advects into the region from the north under fast northwesterly flow aloft ushering weak disturbances across the area.
but temps mostly within a few degrees of the early August normals - Rain chances on the low end for the work week. higher chances come the weekend OVERVIEW: The amplified upper level ridge over the rockies will push back eastward this week. The ridge axis continues to show some weakening as it shifts east over the weekend with the GEFS and EPS trending toward more northwest to quasi-zonal flow taking over by the end of the weekend/start of the following week. Also, the ensembles are showing quite a bit of variability by this time with operational runs on the low end of the guidance. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with an upper- level ridge parked out west providing northwesterly flow to our region.
The well advertised monsoonal surge is well and truly underway, with the high pressure centered over the Plains and that deep subtropical moisture moving north along its western periphery. Waves rotating around the high will aid in keeping storm coverage up and for showers and storms to fire early and linger late. With all of this, expect cooler day time temperatures and very mild overnights. On Tuesday night, the high over the southern Plains and western Gulf states has already expanded southwest over northern Mexico, then expands farther out over the eastern Pacific through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Forecast thoughts: A deep trough remains over eastern Canada into the northeastern CONUS with a semipermanent anticyclone anchored over the deep south with another Pacific Low pressure system along the western Canadian coastal areas. This has allowed for moisture returning around the western periphery of the deep south anticyclone to stream across the local area. This will continue through early to mid morning with a gradual push to the northeast out of the area as the ridge builds back north into the morning and afternoon today. As a result of the ridge building back into the area today and Tuesday, heights rise slightly once again. This will allow for temperatures to increase into the afternoon helping to push the heat index values back to the low to mid 100s across portions of the area.
Mid-level troughing remains over the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
301 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Issued 254 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023) Tonight through Tuesday night: Diurnal cumulus, light winds, and smoke will be the story for the rest of the afternoon as high pressure is the main influence on our weather today. Winds will shift overnight to a more southerly direction as the high moves east towards New England, but should remain rather light. Tuesday will be another quiet weather day as mid-level ridging looks to remain in place throughout the day. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 80s.
252 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Key Points: - Heat continues through late week along/south of a stationary frontal boundary; stronger cold front arrives by the weekend. As has been the case for much of the past couple weeks, our forecast area remains in the battle zone between strong ridging over the southwest CONUS and troughing over the northeastern CONUS. Tomorrow, the boundary should shift northeast a bit as ridging aloft strengthens some.
1154 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level ridge continues it's gradual shift eastward, leading to another dry day with a slight upward tick of warmer temperatures.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues As an upper-level ridge continues to have a strangle hold over South Texas, hot and humid conditions are expected to continue. Heat index values are expected to be a degree or two warmer than today resulting in more of an area requiring a heat advisory, but due to low confidence in the dew point forecast for tomorrow, opted not to issue an advisory at this time and have the next forecast shift overnight reevaluate after the latest model run.
(This evening through Tuesday) Not too much of a change in the weather pattern as the 597 dam upper level ridge currently positioned over the Texas Panhandle. With modest height increases noted across the CWA due to the eastward shift in the center of the high, allowing for slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon. The upper level ridge will continue to track to the east, positioning itself near the Red River Valley by Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday looks to be one of the hotter days of the week with increased thickness values and the center of the high dominating over north Texas. Monsoonal moisture rotating around the center of the ridge will promote thunderstorm development in southeastern New Mexico tomorrow afternoon.
145 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Cooler and drier through mid week. Key Points: * Drier and slightly cooler temperatures to start the week. Dry conditions through the Lower Ohio Valley into the Middle Ohio Valley will make for tough sledding for any ridge riding convection originating over the Northern Plains to make it anywhere near us.
With the ridge sitting just to our north, temperatures stay a few to five degrees above average across the board. Tonight's lows will be in the low to mid 70s as southerly flow keeps conditions mild. The higher elevations will dip into the 60s. Highs on Tuesday end up a couple degrees warmer than today with low 100s across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin.
332 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will taper off this evening as a cold front drops southward.
1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night) With the strong mid/upper level ridge building back into the area, look for widespread inland high temperatures in the triple digits with some well inland locations (generally north of I-10 and west of the Highway 59/69 corridor) possibly approaching 105 degrees today and again tomorrow. Locations along the immediate coast will continue to see highs in the low to mid 90s.
High pressure is centered over Wisconsin and Lake Michigan this afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 50s again tonight which will be close enough to the dewpoint to create some patchy fog.
Pleasant morning ongoing as high pressure remains firmly in control across the region. 13Z temperatures generally ranged from the mid 60s to the low 70s. The high will remain draped across the region today with light N/NE flow.
A weak surface cold front now over Lake Huron will work inland across the thumb region early this evening before essentially washing out as it pushes further inland this evening. Waning instability with the loss in diurnal heating later this evening and the weakening of the cold front will support a dry forecast overnight. Se Mi will lie along the western side of a low level thermal trough while weak mid level subsidence allows some mid level warming on Tuesday.
111 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through the first half of the week.