Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and evening with slightly cooler temperatures.
900 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (Issued 900 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023) Winds will continue to weaken overnight with mostly clear skies, with high pressure to the south. Nwly winds will also diminish as high pressure over the Great Plains moves to the Upper MS River Valley by 12Z Fri, then slowly across WI on Fri. Lgt sly winds will then develop Fri nt as high pressure move east.
Overnight, the boundary will rapidly be pushed northward and widespread southerly winds return across the region as the upper level ridge settles in across the region.
Temperatures are expected to range between the mid 90s and low 100s once more this afternoon before we begin the transition to a cooler and wetter period. There is a near 100% chance of gusts greater than 25 mph across both western Montana and north-central Idaho, except for the low north-central Idaho valleys which have a 50-70% chance. Luckily, cooler and wetter conditions are on the way. Due to an approaching cold front from the northwest, temperatures will decrease tomorrow. High pressure continues to dominate the weather this evening, but the ridge over the area is starting to break down.
504 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 High pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight.
Lows will be a few degrees warmer compared to the past couple of nights due in part to an increase in boundary layer dewpoints as well as the anticipated arrival of clouds prior to sunrise.
852 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 High pressure will bring quiet and seasonably cool weather to central IL tonight and Friday. A drier air mass behind today's cold front has spread into the area, with dewpoints already into the 50s and expected to keep decreasing overnight. Light NW breezes continue, but will diminish overnight as high pressure currently centered over southern IA drifts eastward into IL.
856 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 The surface cold front will move through the area tonight clearing the skies and allowing a rather pleasant airmass to settle in. The main cold front was located over Chicago stretching into central IL and north central MO. Main cold front will push through between 03-06z. Winds this afternoon and evening ahead of the front will remain gusty between 15-25 mph out of the southwest then shift to more north-northeast overnight allowing for cooler and drier air to advect into the region by tomorrow morning. Lows will range from the mid/upper 50s to near 60 north of the parkways to the low/mid 60s to the south.
636 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 High pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight.
418 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Key Messages: - Very hot temperatures Friday afternoon, especially east of the Black Hills - Dry and hot weather through the end of the week may result in elevated fire weather conditions - Potential for isolated storms Friday evening and over the weekend Current upper air analysis and water vapor imagery shows upper level ridge building over the western US. Ridge shifts east and amplifies as strengthening trough digs into the eastern CONUS.
712 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (Tonight) Overall, a pleasant evening is forecast as high pressure overhead results in mostly clear skies and light winds through the evening into the overnight hours.
605 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 High pressure will bring quiet and seasonably cool weather to central IL tonight and Friday.
Record to near record high temperatures return for Friday Scattered thunderstorms will continue over the mountains this evening with a more northerly storm track around the western periphery of the upper ridge axis. Most storms this evening will stay tied to the higher terrain. Across the plains, temperatures will soar once again as the upper high shifts back eastward and a surface lee trough gets re- established allowing westerly downslope flow to help temperatures rebound quickly.
737 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (This afternoon through Friday) Stable conditions and mostly sunny skies remain in place across the Southeast due to high pressure over the region. A deep-layer ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will begin to build eastward through tomorrow. Highs today will reach the mid 80s north to lower 90s south, but most areas will reach the lower 90s tomorrow after one more cool morning start in the 60s. Tropospheric moisture content will remain low, so thankfully that should keep heat indices in check as afternoon dewpoints will remain in the low to mid 60s with no rain on the horizon.
High pressure continued to dominate the southern Plains while a quasi-stationary closed low was spinning over the eastern Pacific off the southern California coast. Unlike yesterday at this time, today's storms were moving northward as the axis of high pressure ridge over the area shifted east over the past 24 hours. Models indicated a weak short wave trough will push across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this evening which is likely to keep shower/thunderstorm activity going well into the evening. Increased clouds and showers are expected to bring slightly cooler temperatures tonight through Friday morning, though readings will continue to run just a little above normal.
341 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 As of 2AM, we have clear skies across the region with temperatures in the high 50s to low 60s and dewpoints around 50. Today a ridge builds into the region bringing in much warmer air and temperatures. This high pressure will keep us dry as well. The forecast period opens with a large hot upper level ridge in play over the CWA. A precipitation-free cold front has pushed south and east of the CWA while an EML holds firm at 7 PM CDT Saturday.
As a plume of hot boundary layer air overspreads the entire area over the next 24 hours, much warmer overnight lows in the low to mid 70s range, and setting up much hotter days in the coming weekend and beyond.
(Today) Tranquil conditions across the Tennessee Valley early this morning with high pressure in control over the Deep South.
Lows will generally cool into the middle 50s to the lower 60s this morning. Southerly winds will return to the area and warmer air mass will being to advect into the area from the west. As a result temperatures will range from the lower 80s across central MO to the lower 90s across southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon. Lows tonight into Saturday morning will range from the lower 60s across south central Missouri to the lower 70s across southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. An upper level ridge of high pressure will build east into the area on Saturday.
313 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 So far this morning, isolated light to moderate rain showers along a cold front have been gradually dissipating across the Bluegrass, with some lingering stratus pushing through in the vicinity of the front. Today should be an excellent day weather-wise across central Kentucky and southern Indiana as high pressure at the surface and subsidence aloft will lead to mostly sunny skies across the region. Tonight, a few high level clouds will stream across the region from NW to SE; however, this shouldn't affect temperatures cooling off quickly after sunset thanks to high pressure remaining fairly close by and keeping winds light. Will go with mid-to-upper 50s for low temps Saturday morning for most (SDF warm bubble excepted), with some valleys across east central KY potentially falling into the low 50s.
As the 500mb ridge moves directly overhead, temperatures will continue to increase. With the increasing temperatures, RH values will fall into the low to mid teens across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, resulting in elevated RFTIs.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Upper ridging strengthens overhead today into the weekend and should squash precipitation chances, even for the mountains.
(Today through Saturday) The short term period will continue to feature hot and mostly rain- free conditions as Deep South Texas remains under the influence of mid level ridging. One subtle difference compared to previous days is the gradual increase in precipitable water values across the region as the ridge begins to shift.
An area of high pressure to begin to exit the region with a developing area of low pressure in lee of the northern Rockies will provide a tightening pressure gradient across the area today. Brief ridging aloft today into Saturday will allow the thermal ridge to build into the area with h85 temps climbing into the mid to upper 20s C through Saturday.
With winds remaining light tonight, and this low level moisture advection continuing, did not make many changes to min temps tonight as they look obtainable, with the warmest readings over E TX as they only fall into the lower to mid 70s. Unfortunately, the upper ridging extending from the Rockies E into the OK/TX Panhandles is expected to expand farther E into the region Friday, with the triple digit heat also expanding across much of the CWA by afternoon. 15 (06Z TAFS) For the 18/06 TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure at the sfc and aloft.
Lows will be a few degrees warmer compared to the past couple of nights due in part to an increase in boundary layer dewpoints as well as the anticipated arrival of clouds prior to sunrise. (Friday through Saturday) Satellite imagery depicts a weak cold front stretching from the Great Lakes region southwest into MO/OK that is associated with a low over Canada. By Friday, the upper level trough over the Eastern Seaboard begins to lift to the north and east allowing for the large amplitude ridge over the western US to shift eastward. This will slide the cold front through the Tennessee Valley on Friday providing some reinforcing dry air. Unfortunately, the cooler conditions will be short lived as the 600 dam 500mb high that is sitting under the ridge shifts eastward.
with slightly cooler and drier air starting to move south into AR. The center of the upper ridge will remain just west of AR. but the influence of this upper ridge will expand further east into AR also by this afternoon. to the low to mid 90s across central sections near the SFC frontal boundary. The upper ridge will rotate just NW of AR for Sat.
Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a large 594dam high centered over the southern Plains and a rather sharp upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. This was resulting in northwest flow aloft across our region that will help a weak dry reinforcing cold front drift through our CWA later today and tonight. There was currently no precipitation and very little cloud cover associated with this cold front that was noted on latest surface analysis, oriented northeast to southwest across central Arkansas. Despite the presence of the weak cold front, near full insolation of our warm airmass will lead to afternoon highs back in the upper 90s to lower 100s across the southwest half of our CWA.
Cooler and drier air will overspread the region today. Line of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the surface cold front will exit the region well before dawn. Still expect some stratocu late tonight and patchy fog as it will take time for the lowest levels to dry out. High pressure will build into the region today under northwest flow aloft. Cold air advection, on the backside of the 850mb trough, may provide just enough instability to promote an afternoon shower over the northwest counties, but the rest of the area should remain dry. High pressure and a strengthening ridge over the central U.
135 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 The ridge that has been over the western US continues sliding south and east today into this weekend.
343 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (Today through Saturday) Short term forecast continues to be seasonally benign as dominate southern CONUS high pressure ridge shifts enough to better position Georgia under its dry influence.
Temperatures were a few degrees cooler in the wake of the front. Upper level ridging will persist through 23 August and then gradually weaken thereafter. There is agreement between the models and their ensembles today with regards to a slow weakening of the upper level ridge after 23 p August. The operational ECMWF continues to indicate a tropical disturbance moving westward along the southern periphery of the upper ridge; but the ECMWF ensemble mean (EPS) still shows general ridging for a few more days before the ridge finally flattens out by 26 August.
Cooler air filtering will support slightly cooler lows compared to yesterday, generally in the low-mid 50s. Optimal radiational cooling will support another night of seasonably cool lows with temperatures in the low-mid 50s tonight.
1258 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front overnight into early Friday morning. Breezy conditions behind the front Friday afternoon will direct a noticeably cooler and drier airmass into the Commonwealth and lead to a refreshingly comfortable start to the weekend.
1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (This evening through Friday) The upper level ridge will be shifting eastward, centering over Oklahoma Friday afternoon. A cold front will be moving through the Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening, most likely stalling prior to reaching our area.
(Today and tonight) The upper level high will be centered over Oklahoma through tonight and will result in another very hot day across the area.
(Today through Saturday night) More heat expected for more of the area today, and with it more exasperated sighs of Panhandle residents ready for cooler weather. Strengthening high pressure aloft and warming 850mb temps should allow several areas to be even hotter than yesterday. High pressure meanders slightly eastward on Saturday, but will still be the dominant influence on our weather.
Lower dew points sitting just to the north of the Kansas and Missouri borders will continue to filter southward into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas overnight, also allowing temperatures to fall nicely into the lower to mid 60s.
254 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Cold front exits east of the Appalachians around noon. Thereafter, high pressure dominates into the new week. A weak passing cold front is still evident in surface analysis crossing WV this morning. Temperatures tonight will be about 6 degrees cooler than normal, generally in the mid 50s lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s highest elevations.
(Tonight through Saturday night) An upper level ridge centered over the southwest US will strengthen and expand eastward into the Southern Plains over the next few days. Also, with the low relative humidity values during the afternoon and the drought conditions, there will be an increased risk for fire danger of grass/woods/marsh fires.
Under mostly sunny skies temperatures are primarily in the lower to mid 80s. This is in conjunction with a nearly dry cold front which will be on approach this evening and tonight. Meanwhile, an upper high over the central Plains will begin to strengthen, a forerunner of what is to come.
Strong warm air advection, a building upper ridge, and a strong low-level jet will all begin to take shape tonight into Friday. An upper ridge will remain dominant across the central CONUS including our forecast area through the majority of this period. A sfc cold front is progged to push through our area on Saturday.
353 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Cooler and drier air will overspread the region today. High pressure will build into the region today under northwest flow aloft. Cold air advection, on the backside of the 850mb trough, may provide just enough instability to promote an afternoon shower over the northwest counties, but the rest of the area should remain dry. High pressure and a strengthening ridge over the central U.
1222 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (This afternoon through Friday) Stable conditions and mostly sunny skies remain in place across the Southeast due to high pressure over the region. A deep-layer ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will begin to build eastward through tomorrow. Highs today will reach the mid 80s north to lower 90s south, but most areas will reach the lower 90s tomorrow after one more cool morning start in the 60s. Tropospheric moisture content will remain low, so thankfully that should keep heat indices in check as afternoon dewpoints will remain in the low to mid 60s with no rain on the horizon.
It will be cool with lows in the lower to middle 40s north to the lower 50s across the Fox Valley and along the Lake Michigan shoreline.
Discussion: The trough over the East Coast will move out today as a ridge builds into the Central U. At the surface, a cold front is currently nearing East KY and Middle Tennessee. The cold front will move through the region this morning and drier air will move in by this afternoon.
212 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 One more day of hot temperatures is in store as we still sit under a prominent ridge and receive downslope warming across the area. A cold front will move through tonight and bring about significantly cooler temperatures for Saturday (highs mid 70s to low 80s). After today, we are done with dry conditions and are fully in for a moist few days, but luckily with cooler temperatures.
1121 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (This evening through Saturday) High pressure will continue to control the weather pattern through all of the short term promoting calm and dry conditions. Hotter conditions are expected Saturday as a large, expansive high pressure becomes centered over the area.
As such, the warming trend will continue as mid level heights rise with the building upper ridge over drifting eastward out of the Southwest CONUS and into the Southern Plains.
251 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front overnight into early Friday morning. Breezy conditions behind the front Friday afternoon will direct a noticeably cooler and drier airmass into the Commonwealth and lead to a refreshingly comfortable start to the weekend.
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 60s. Low pressure is forecast to be off the southwest coast of California with Hurricane Hilary well south of the southern tip of California. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s to around 70.
/Issued 1150 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023/ /Through Saturday/ A strong mid level ridge parked over the Southern Plains will maintain the excessively hot weather currently in place through the weekend. But as an intense upper ridge shifts north, daytime temperatures will lose a couple of degrees each day through midweek. An easterly wave will slide along the underbelly of the ridge, primarily impacting South and West Texas during the middle of the week. The wildfire concerns will return late in the week as the upper ridge and its accompanying heat returns. 25 Summer precipitation totals are among the lowest on record. /Issued 1150 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023/ /06Z TAFs/ Strong ridging aloft will create tranquil aviation weather across the board, with VFR expected and winds predominantly out of the south around 10kt.
228 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Current surface map shows high pressure across the Upper Midwest with trough across the Northern Plains. Speedy low level jet is boosting thermal profiles; with current temperatures in the lower 80s for downslope areas around the Black Hills. For Saturday, cold front slips into far northwest South Dakota/northeast Wyoming early and shifts south of the forecast area Saturday afternoon.
With winds remaining light tonight, and this low level moisture advection continuing, did not make many changes to min temps tonight as they look obtainable, with the warmest readings over E TX as they only fall into the lower to mid 70s. Unfortunately, the upper ridging extending from the Rockies E into the OK/TX Panhandles is expected to expand farther E into the region Friday, with the triple digit heat also expanding across much of the CWA by afternoon.
Discussion: High pressure continues to build into the area this morning as temperatures across the area were in the low 50s and upper 40s. While elevated smoke make keep us from seeing much deep blue sky, the high pressure moving into the area continues to bring in cooler and drier air to the area. Still uncertain on how hot we get as a backdoor cold front, model biases and question on moisture return could bust this forecast. Discussion: Northwest flow quickly turns to upper level high on top of us. Guidance has a 600 dm ridge centered over the area for most of the period.
1144 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 High pressure will bring quiet and seasonably cool weather to central IL tonight and Friday. A drier air mass behind today's cold front has spread into the area, with dewpoints already into the 50s and expected to keep decreasing overnight. Light NW breezes continue, but will diminish overnight as high pressure currently centered over southern IA drifts eastward into IL.
252 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Currently have upper ridging centered over the TX/OK Panhandles with a sharp upper trough stretching from the Eastern Great Lakes region into the Southern Appalachians. At the surface, high pressure is situated of the Mid Mississippi Valley with a cold front stretching across Northern TX. Upper ridge will slowly track east and strengthen starting Sat and will continue to expand through Sun. Upper pattern is expected to remain very stable through these periods, with strong upper ridge generally centered over MO/eastern KS. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low 90s.
1146 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) The upper ridge centered over NM/CO/TX Panhandle extends northward to almost Canada and southward into the Gulf. This ridge will move over OK Friday as A low spins along the CA coast. Widespread 100s have returned to the region with only the higher elevations escaping it. Friday looking just a bit cooler, may end up needing a Heat Advisory in the afternoon again for the Northeast Permian Basin.
1231 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) Key Message: - Dangerously Hot with elevated Fire Danger continuing on Friday Broad mid-upper level ridge centered over Oklahoma will maintain very hot and dry conditions over south Texas through the short term period.
Deep upper trough centered over the northeast States extending south along the eastern seaboard. Mid level short wave trough will be moving through early this evening with a few clouds. Some weak downslope component, along with subsidence suggest temps a degree or two warmer than yesterday. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Deep ridging over the central CONUS is still expected to dominate the weekend.
Post cold front wind and clouds have actually kept our evening temperatures warmer than they were a 9 p.
622 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (Today through Saturday) Key Messages: - Dangerously Hot with elevated Fire Danger continuing today, and somewhat on Saturday We will continue our Heat over S Texas as the upper level ridge repositions itself a little more east of where it has been for most of this season. As the ridge moves, the expectation is for the temperatures to stay about the same, but we start to notice the RH beginning to rise in areas, to the west like near LRD.
After a rather brief relief from the brutal heat the upper level ridge returns just straight up bullying any chances of relief out of the way. Like Thanos in the avengers, the heat is inevitable and it will not take long for the upper level ridge to announce its presence.
440 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 The ridge that has been over the western US continues sliding south and east today into this weekend.
1058 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 A cold frontal moves through the region today.