Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
439 PM MST Sat Feb 11 2023 Quiet conditions across the West Slope will hang on for another day as a transitory ridge slowly collapses this evening. Sunday temperatures should be warmer than today for places not stuck in inverted cold pool conditions. Unfortunately, light winds will do little to mix down some of that warmer air for residents of these locales.
520 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Today's perfect weather returns for an encore on Sunday, even with the passage of a sharp upper ridge this evening ahead of increasing high clouds. Modest lee troughing to our NW should again make for pleasant southwesterly zephyrs and even milder highs as thicknesses creep higher, although changes loom just beyond this period as a cold front will be found edging south from the northern TX Panhandle Sunday afternoon.
830 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 Recent regional radar imagery shows a weakening area of showers pushing ENE across the area as a strong cold front continues to approach from offshore. Once the upper low lifts out later Sunday morning, the good push of cooler and drier air will move in and clear out the area as high pressure builds from the WNW and winds will then gradually weaken.
618 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 Clear skies persist into Sunday as dry air holds north of high pressure anchored over the Ohio valley. This ample sunshine has helped to start to moderate the lingering thermal trough allowing highs across the region to creep back into the lower 40s. With no snowpack and persistent albeit lighter southwest winds, will continue to err towards the 'warmer' outcomes with lows in the upper 20s. Elongating high pressure governs local conditions through daytime Sunday leading to another day of sunny skies and spring-like temperatures as highs reach the mid to upper 40s.
511 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 (The rest of this afternoon through tonight) Low clouds have mostly cleared out this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma as upper low continues to move away from the region. Still some lingering snow on the ridgetops in southeast Le Flore County per latest satellite imagery. Otherwise, weak high pressure ridge at the surface will begin to slowly push south overnight with light and variable winds.
347 PM MST Sat Feb 11 2023 Quiet conditions across the West Slope will hang on for another day as a transitory ridge slowly collapses this evening. Sunday temperatures should be warmer than today for places not stuck in inverted cold pool conditions. Unfortunately, light winds will do little to mix down some of that warmer air for residents of these locales.
643 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 Expect clearing skies this evening and overnight, as high pressure settles south of the area.
Northeast winds will remain elevated across much of western Nevada through this evening as a low pressure system moves southward across southern California.
527 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 (This evening through Sunday) With clear skies tonight, temperatures should drop to just below freezing due to radiational cooling. Southerly to southwesterly surface flow will continue to bring warmer air in on Sunday, bringing high temperatures into the 60s under some thin, scattered cirrus.
A strong cold front is expected to push through east central Florida later tonight, ushered through the area by a deepening low moving through northern Florida and southern Georgia. It will be cooler with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for most locations. Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions developing tonight behind a strong cold front.
556 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) The closed upper level low just to our east will continue moving east tonight. Ridging aloft will build over South Central Texas tonight then flatten Sunday and Sunday night as an upper level low digs into northern Baja California. Low temperatures generally in the low to mid 30s are forecast tonight, with a few locations in the Hill Country dipping into the upper 20s. Warmer tomorrow, despite some mid and high clouds, with high temperatures for most areas forecast in the 60s.
* Quiet weather continues, with a warming trend High pressure and a dry atmosphere continued across central Indiana this afternoon, with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Subsidence from some brief upper ridging will also move in.
Warmer than average and dry weather continues through the weekend. ECMWF Ens/GEFS and deterministic models are in good agreement in the continuing omega block/split flow pattern with the Northern Plains on the crest of the ridge, providing zonal flow aloft with winds speeds 45-50kts.
A cold front is advancing through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. this front is associated with a low pressure system migrating northeastward through the southeastern United States. Through the overnight period, the cold front will continue to drive southeastwards and be in the vicinity of the Keys by morning. Ahead of this front, the low level inhibition is expected to dissipate. Overnight lows will hinge on exactly how far the cold front advances by the end of the night. A cold front will continue advancing southeastward towards the Keys, arriving in Keys late tonight and early Sunday. (00Z TAFS) A cold front is expected to sweep into the Keys late in the overnight period.
Quiet weather expected over the next 24 hours as northerly flow followed by a weak transient ridge slides across the forecast area. Not much to speak of weather-wise until Sunday night's trough impacts the area, but did issue a few changes to the last forecast package.
Current IR Satellite loop shows mid to high level cloudiness pushing northeast across the region as a weak elongated upper level trough settled in to Wyoming behind the weakening ridge axis moving across the Great Plains early this morning. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected today as a result, but high temperatures should still be a few degrees above normal with highs in the 40s across most areas with maybe some mid to upper 30s in areas that still have a decent snowpack. The only minor concern is some very windy conditions around Bordeaux as surface pressure lowers across the high plains, resulting in an increasing pressure gradient along the Laramie Range.
Skies were mostly clear this evening as ridging builds in aloft. An upper level ridge of high pressure will build into the Pacific Northwest tonight and Sunday. A cold and deep upper trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on Monday and push a cold front through our area Monday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be near normal Monday, but will fall behind the cold front. Snow levels will be near valley floors as the front arrives, and precipitation may initially be a rain/snow mix at the lowest elevations before changing to snow. Little to no snow accumulation is expected in the lower valleys due to very light precipitation totals behind the front.
A deep, closed upper low continues to slowly churn through eastern TX into the southeastern US. Another closed upper low has pushed onshore across north-central CA with broad SW flow over the Four Corners. Warm and dry southwesterly flow coupled with ample sunshine on Monday will result in a very warm day as temperatures surge into the 50s for much of the area (cooler in the Black Hills and areas with residual snow cover) and low 60s along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills and foothills.
A few spots along the higher elevation of the Irish Hills into northwest and north metro Detroit may see a few 50 degree readings as lack of mixing will have a bit less impact. With weak cold air advection and at least some degree of cloudiness, this system will perhaps knock a few degrees of off high temperatures, but given the limited/transient nature of this pocket of cooler air, still expect temperatures to climb into the mid 40s in many locations with the coolest readings closer to 40 degrees limited to areas north of I-69.
1028 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 (Tonight) A potent and deepening upper level low over southern MS was displaying an impressive imprint on regional radar and satellite this evening. As the low lifts pivots northeast through southeast AL into central GA, deformation banding will persist over the TN valley. Surface air temperatures are all expected to remain above freezing. I won't rule out a few wet snow flakes in the highest elevations, but at this point, we will remove impacts from our messaging.
A cold front moves through the state late Monday afternoon through Monday night, bringing light snow, gusty winds creating some blowing snow, and another dose of cold air.
251 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 Early morning analysis reveals the deep closed low to our south, and low level ridging extending into the Ohio Valley from Texas. Quiet weather continues into tonight as the low level ridge passes by. Temps will drop into the low 30s as clouds increase by the diurnal min time frame.
The influx of a warmer airmass from the southwest combined with full sunshine this afternoon are allowing temperatures to warm well into the 40s across the area. More mid and high level cloudiness should move across the area into Sunday night in advance of the next approaching weak frontal trough, and an accompanying mid- level impulse. This frontal trough is likely to shift into the area very late Sunday night. It appears very unlikely the area will see any precipitation from this feature as the lower level airmass looks to remain rather parched across the area. Rapid ridging briefly returns Monday evening, ushering additional southerly air back through the Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes.
1052 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 (This evening through Sunday) With clear skies tonight, temperatures should drop to just below freezing due to radiational cooling. Southerly to southwesterly surface flow will continue to bring warmer air in on Sunday, bringing high temperatures into the 60s under some thin, scattered cirrus.
Probabilistic guidance suggests that highs tomorrow won't be as warm as MOS guidance recommends owing to the aforementioned cirrus cloud cover and attendant (albeit slight) loss of insolation; then again, if the clouds thin out more than forecast, highs could be a category warmer than forecast. With the warmer-than-normal day tomorrow, about a 30 degree diurnal seems prudent, putting lows in the mid 30s to the mid 40s to start off the day Monday.
The closed CA low heads into the desert sw 00z Tue with a trough in the Pacific NW. The trough in the Pacific NW moves into the northern Rockies and a trough moves into the central plains 12z Tue which then heads northeast and becomes negatively tilted in the upper Mississippi Valley 00z Wed. The closed low over the desert sw heads east into the central plains 12z Thu which quickly moves northeast into the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri and becomes negatively tilted. This trough then moves off the east coast 12z Sat. Model guidance seems to be backing off on the timing of a weak cold front sagging south through the Upper Great Lakes so have backed off on MVFR cigs getting into CMX and will now go VFR for all sites through the period.
The high will gradually drift to the east this evening and tomorrow, resulting in low level warm air advection as winds shift to the southwest. The quick switch back to southwesterly winds will be in response to deepening low pressure over the Central Plains.
1112 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 Mostly sunny and mild February weather will prevail for the next couple of days, as high temperatures climb into the lower 50s both Sunday and Monday.
Turning breezy Monday afternoon into Monday night as moisture-starved cold front sweeps west to east through the CWA. POPs ramp up again by Thu PM and have mentioned a schc TS in the NW ahead of the cold front.
1147 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 The main story Sunday into Monday will be warmer than normal high temperatures ahead of the next storm system digging into the desert Southwest. Highs Sunday will be from the lower 50s in central Kansas, to the lower 60s near the Oklahoma border.
A strong upper level cutoff low centered north of Florida this morning will lift northeast through the Carolinas today, helping to push the recent cold front out of the Florida Peninsula. With this upper level support and some residual moisture lifting over the cold front, a few showers will linger over the area this morning, but any rain totals should be minimal. Otherwise, strong westerly flow will hold behind the front, resulting in cooler and very breezy conditions today. The breezy northwest winds will continue tonight, with cold air advection dropping temperatures into the low to mid 40s over the interior and Nature Coast counties, and 50s along the coast.
1043 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) The closed upper level low just to our east will continue moving east tonight. Ridging aloft will build over South Central Texas tonight then flatten Sunday and Sunday night as an upper level low digs into northern Baja California. Low temperatures generally in the low to mid 30s are forecast tonight, with a few locations in the Hill Country dipping into the upper 20s. Warmer tomorrow, despite some mid and high clouds, with high temperatures for most areas forecast in the 60s.
159 AM MST Sun Feb 12 2023 Brief northwesterly flow today between a departing Canadian trough and a building ridge in Alberta will keep things pleasant with high temperatures about 10 degrees above average. Then on Monday this ridge will pass over our area producing high temperatures a good 20 degrees above normal area wide. For both today and tomorrow have blended in warmer high temperatures as actual highs have been running higher than what the NBM has been producing.
High pressure will shift eastward through the day, with winds increasing late morning and into the afternoon especially across parts of northeast Oklahoma in response to the approach of a fast moving disturbance.
1047 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Today's perfect weather returns for an encore on Sunday, even with the passage of a sharp upper ridge this evening ahead of increasing high clouds. Modest lee troughing to our NW should again make for pleasant southwesterly zephyrs and even milder highs as thicknesses creep higher, although changes loom just beyond this period as a cold front will be found edging south from the northern TX Panhandle Sunday afternoon.
H5 analysis from earlier tonight had a closed low over far southern portions of Mississippi. A trough extended south of this feature into central portions of the Gulf of Mexico. West of this feature, ridging extended from western Texas, north into northwestern Kansas. West of the ridge, low pressure was located just off the coast of central California. At the surface, a weak cold front was present across northwestern Nebraska into the panhandle.
536 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 (Today through Monday) Upper low pulling away quickly, near the Alabama-Georgia border at 09z. Elsewhere at the surface, high pressure extended from Illinois to Texas.
A low amplitude ridge of high pressure will continue to be over the Northern Rockies today with some high level clouds streaming into the region. A Pacific cold front is still anticipated to move through the region Monday into Monday night. The precipitation type will be snow in the higher terrain, while the valleys will experience a rain/snow mix before changing to all snow by Monday evening. The higher terrain across north central Idaho up into northwest Montana should anticipate accumulations for 6 to 12 inches, including Lookout, Lolo, Lost Trail and Marias passes.
Water vapor imagery this early morning reveals an active southern stream via a closed cyclone over the southeast CONUS and a second cyclone digging into California. Sandwiched between the two cyclones is a modest upper ridge over the Central and Southern Plains. Nonetheless, a small wave ejecting out ahead of the western upper low is pushing across the Rockies this morning. the cold front will also push through western Kansas in the mid morning to early afternoon hours. However, other than winds turning to the northwest and brining slightly cooler air. Ahead of this upper low the lee trough will deepen again by Monday afternoon with resultant gusty south winds bringing some elevated fire weather potential.
305 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 Another clear night across the dvn cwa due to high pressure over the area. Tonight: There is a weak upper level trough arriving along with a weak cold front (more of a wind shift to the northwest). Higher clouds will also accompany the trough.
507 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 Key Messages: * Cooler and mostly cloudy today, with breezy north winds expected by midday.
424 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 (Today through Monday) Double barreled low pressure system currently impacting the CWA this morning. A dry slot is making is making progress over the southern CWA, but additional light precip is possible in that area until the low pressure center moves out. Clearing should occur after 00Z Monday with high pressure building in from the west.
Another clear night across the dvn cwa due to high pressure over the area. Tonight: There is a weak upper level trough arriving along with a weak cold front (more of a wind shift to the northwest). Higher clouds will also accompany the trough.
315 AM PST Sun Feb 12 2023 Breezy northeast to east winds will continue along the Sierra ridgetops today into Monday morning.
531 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 A mid/upper ridge extends from south Texas northward across the Central and Northern Plains.
Upper ridging will remain overhead today through tomorrow morning and will help warm temps into the upper 60s/low 70s this afternoon. The front, driven by an upper trough on the northern edge of the upper ridge, will drop southward and approach our northern zones by sunrise. Overall temps will be a few degrees warmer tonight, upper 20s to near 40.
333 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 H5 analysis from earlier tonight had a closed low over far southern portions of Mississippi. A trough extended south of this feature into central portions of the Gulf of Mexico. West of this feature, ridging extended from western Texas, north into northwestern Kansas. West of the ridge, low pressure was located just off the coast of central California. At the surface, a weak cold front was present across northwestern Nebraska into the panhandle.
Some morning fog will slow the warmup today along with a slightly cooler airmass when comparing temps to yesterday. Will see highs in the low 30s along and west of the valley and low 40s in the forests of MN. On Monday temps will again climb into the mid and upper 30s along the valley and west with the trees again warming into the low to mid 40s.
Surface temperatures have fallen into the mid to upper 30s in the higher elevations on the Cumberland Plateau and they may drop another couple of degrees before sunrise, but based on models soundings, precip should remain in liquid form this morning. After precip exits, most of the area will be able to warm into the low 50s, with the exception of the Plateau, where temperatures will remain cool and in the 40s. Much drier air and mostly clear skies will move overhead tonight, allowing temperatures to fall to around freezing for most of the area, but the daytime hours on Monday look very nice as southerly surface winds and weak ridging aloft bring a warmup into the low to mid 60s.
337 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 A mid/upper ridge extends from south Texas northward across the Central and Northern Plains.
447 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 (Today through Monday) Key Message: - Southeast winds increase to gusts near 30 mph Monday afternoon Ridging aloft and warming will dominate through the short term with an upper-level jet producing high clouds. An approaching low pressure system from the SW CONUS will tighten the surface pressure gradient across South Texas, causing southeast winds to increase Monday with sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph, mainly west and south of I-37.
The last remaining rain showers should be out of the area by 6 AM this morning as upper low swings northeast out of our forecast area. Morning lows are forecasted to drop to or just below freezing this morning across most of our CWA. In response to this, cooler air should begin to settle across the area as the last bit of lingering cloud cover should help limit radiational cooling from occuring. For tonight, ridging should continue to build across the southeast region.
A storm system will move in tonight and Monday bringing scattered showers, a slight chance of thunderstorms and cooler temperatures.
(Today through Monday) Upper low pulling away quickly, near the Alabama-Georgia border at 09z. Elsewhere at the surface, high pressure extended from Illinois to Texas.
(Today through Monday) Double barreled low pressure system currently impacting the CWA this morning. A dry slot is making is making progress over the southern CWA, but additional light precip is possible in that area until the low pressure center moves out. Clearing should occur after 00Z Monday with high pressure building in from the west.
119 AM PST Sun Feb 12 2023 Low pressure continues to drop southward with drier conditions expected for the next few days.
Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a complex pattern, with quazi-zonal flow siting over the forecast area, a deep closed low sitting over over southeastern CONUS, and another closed low in southern California. Mild ridging builds into the region for today and Monday, resulting in dry and mild conditions.
Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a complex pattern, with quasi-zonal flow siting over the forecast area, a deep closed low sitting over over southeastern CONUS, and another closed low in southern California. Mild ridging builds into the region for today and Monday, resulting in dry and mild conditions.
Key Messages: * Cooler and mostly cloudy today, with breezy north winds expected by midday.
Early morning analysis reveals the deep closed low to our south, and low level ridging extending into the Ohio Valley from Texas. Quiet weather continues into tonight as the low level ridge passes by. Temps will drop into the low 30s as clouds increase by the diurnal min time frame.
A strong cold front is barreling towards the Florida Keys this morning. Said front is on the doorsteps of the Lower Keys currently and will sweep through the Keys and surrounding waters this morning. As the front pushes through the region this morning, temperatures will likely hold steady in the lower to mid 70s. Behind this front a pretty stout high pressure will quickly slide in and dominate the sensible weather pattern through midweek and beyond.
The clouds will be slow to clear with the upper low lingering over the SE US today. Will get some cooler temps in for this afternoon though, with lower to mid 60s north to lower 70s south.
It is associated with weak upper troughing. Dry conditions are expected today and tonight with weak upper ridging in place.
600 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 VFR conditions will prevail today as a nearby high pressure brings clear skies and light winds around 5 knot from the southwest. A few spots along the higher elevation of the Irish Hills into northwest and north metro Detroit may see a few 50 degree readings as lack of mixing will have a bit less impact. With weak cold air advection and at least some degree of cloudiness, this system will perhaps knock a few degrees of off high temperatures, but given the limited/transient nature of this pocket of cooler air, still expect temperatures to climb into the mid 40s in many locations with the coolest readings closer to 40 degrees limited to areas north of I-69.
Expect this activity to continue throughout much of the day as the low pressure system just off the California coast begins to slide eastward along the international border later today. On Monday, the low over Arizona and New Mexico will lift off to the north and east.
We will see a break from the rain through mid-week with high pressure in control.