Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The northeast plains likely to remain mostly sunny to partly cloudy this afternoon and slightly warmer temperatures. The low level winds will be fairly weak for the western half of the CWA tonight and tonight. For moisture, models have limited amounts over the southwestern CWA up into the high mountains of the divide this afternoon into early evening. Generally dry NW flow aloft will be over the area on Sat as another surge of cooler air affects the plains.
Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at midday depict a powerful upper level cut-off low centered over the far northern Midwest, resulting in longwave troughing over the majority of the CONUS. At the surface, gusty north-northwest winds will continue across the area through the afternoon today as high pressure builds into the central plains in the wake of yesterday's cold front. However, the strong mid-March sun combined with the weakly downsloping winds will help to offset the effects of the cold front as temperatures peak in the upper 40s to low 50s this afternoon. Overnight tonight, vorticity maxima rotating around the upper level cut-off low will send another, albeit weaker cold front through southwest KS, giving our area another shot of cold air and supporting lows dropping into the teens to low 20s by sunrise.
A front progressing southeastward pushing against this ridge is helping to keep a tight pressure gradient in place across the Florida Keys. High pressure continues moving eastward further into the western North Atlantic tonight through Saturday. However, the western periphery of the ridge will try to hold on through this period keeping the Keys dry through at least Saturday afternoon. Expect overnight lows in the lower 70s with daytime highs Saturday in the lower to mid 80s with southeast to south winds. A cold front currently over the southeastern United States and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues moving southeastward through Saturday.
as a robust upper level low (presently centered invof Lake Superior) progresses eastward across the Upper Great Lakes (tonight) into Quebec (Sat-Sat night). Sat night: 1035-1040 mb high pressure over the Northern Plains will shift southward over the Central Plains in this period.
The previously mentioned cloud cover will result from a layer of moisture advecting in at the low to mid levels. There will still be dry air in the low levels for these crystals to overcome, but did put some targeted flurry chances in areas with the best lift and low level moisture.
A cold front progresses across the area into tonight, ushering in a strong cold air advection regime. Saturday will be much colder, with highs only making it into the lower to middle 50's.
Otherwise, ridge building from the west will bring us quiet weather over the next 36 hours. Saturday night will be milder, w/ a modest increase in downslope winds along our western foothills as a lee side trof develops.
Strong low pressure over the Great Lakes and high pressure over eastern Montana is creating strong northwest winds across North Dakota this afternoon. and Canada ridge and an eastern Pacific trough.
337 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Showers will end across the region this evening, as a cold front moves east of the Keystone state.
Of note, a little unusual to have wind chill concerns in mid-March as temps are normally about 20 degrees warmer than mid-January. A cold front is currently moving south across the forecast area and bringing some light snow showers to the eastern half of the forecast area.
Temperatures have fallen quickly early this afternoon as high pressure continues to push a much colder airmass through the area, with much of the area currently ranging from the mid to upper 40s. Have upgraded to a Freeze Warning for tonight as temperatures fall to the low 30s/upper 20s. Be sure to grab a heavy jacket if headed outdoors tonight, as wind chill values will fall to the low to mid 20s.
316 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday) Cold front approaching attm with sharp NW wind just behind the rain shield now entering the state.
118 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Based on latest sfc analysis and regional 88D imagery, our cold front has now exited lower Acadiana and will soon depart the ern coastal waters.
(This evening through Saturday Night) The latest cold front continues to push offshore, ushering in moderate to fresh northerly winds with occasional gusts around 25 mph. Continuous cold air advection will bring temperatures down to the low to mid 40s tonight with the exception of the Piney Woods area cooling down to the upper 30s. These showers will start in our southwestern counties and push east throughout the day, with the highest chances (~30%) south of I-10.
117 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over the Upper Midwest with short wave diving south across western SD, and upper ridge over the Pac NW. Snow showers and gusty northwest winds continue across much of western SD with short wave trof rotating around the main upper low. Rather flat upper ridge will build in over the weekend, with mainly dry weather expected.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Cloud cover remains in place across much of the area this afternoon with much cooler temperatures than this time yesterday.
The air mass behind this cold front will remind us it's still winter as high temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s deg F--around 15 to 20 deg F below average for mid-March.
(Rest of today through Saturday) Weather conditions across South FL will remain dry and breezy this afternoon as an area of high pressure remains in place over the western Atlantic Ocean. However, the weather pattern begins to change tomorrow as an area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary make their way across the southeastern US towards the Florida peninsula. The interactions between the area of high pressure and approaching boundary will result in enhanced southerly flow, with wind speeds up to 12 kts and wind gusts up to 20 kts possible. The warming trend continues through the short term as highs today reach the low 80s along the East Coast and mid 80s in the interior.
353 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (Issued 353 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023) Tonight and Saturday: Low pressure over Quebec this evening will continue to move northeast out of the Great Lakes Region tonight. Gusty northwest to west winds will continue on the back side of the low through the overnight hours and into Saturday. An upper level low is expected to pivot through the state Saturday, which will bring a chance for some flurries.
As such, this will keep PoPs in the forecast in the form of snow for the higher elevations due to orographic lift. Very light accumulations less than an inch are possible in the highest peaks, limited largely because of the weak flow and shallow moisture. The main story for the area will be another night of widespread freezing temperatures. Due to the high confidence, the previous Freeze Watch was already upgraded to a warning for tonight. Saturday On Saturday, high pressure will expand from the northwest with another frontal boundary approaching in the afternoon hours.
Sfc cold front has pushed well east of central KY and southern IN and is now draped southward along the Appalachians. Cloudy, drier, and much cooler conditions are noted this afternoon along with breezy northwesterly winds. The upper low will rotate over the Great Lakes on Saturday, maintaining cyclonic flow aloft. A second cold front actually pushes southeast through the forecast area Saturday morning, accompanied by a narrow ribbon of low-level moisture and stronger CAA in its wake Saturday afternoon and evening. Highs should range from the low/mid 30s in southern Indiana to the low/mid 40s in southern KY.
Tonight and Saturday Synopsis: Upper level low pressure will rotate across the western Great Lakes tonight before tracking to north of Lake Huron by Saturday afternoon. As the upper low moves overhead, deeper saturation will spread from northwest to southeast across the region this evening. With widespread clouds and snow showers, temps in the low to mid 20s can be expected. for 18Z TAF Issuance - Upper level low pressure will slowly move across the western Great Lakes and create periods of snow showers and flurries.
237 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Anomalously cold airmass will slide southward tonight behind a secondary cold front resulting in temperatures some 20 degrees below climo on Saturday and Saturday night.
1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (Today and tonight) The cool air mass in place across Oklahoma and northern Texas will be augmented by another cooler air mass Friday night. This cool and dry air mass will range from central Saskatchewan to the lower half of the Arkansas Valley by Saturday morning.
An upper level trough continues to dig in across the Great Lakes as of this afternoon. As the upper trough digs in, some light snow showers will be possible this afternoon into the evening hours generally from the Red River Valley eastward, with best chances for accumulating snowfall across northwestern and west central Minnesota. After the cold start and with high pressure building in from the west, high temperatures are only expected to rebound into the teens to low 20s on Saturday, amidst mostly quiet weather.
As the upper low meanders eastward along the International border, the sfc pressure gradient remains tight enough to induce 15-25 mph sustained northwest winds with gusts in the 20s and 30s, continuing overnight.
1225 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (Today) A mid-level trof axis was exiting off to the east of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early this morning. the mid-level trof is expected to continue to move off to the east with cloud cover becoming more scattered over the CWA.
Mostly clear skies tonight will allow for efficient radiative cooling, with low temperatures ranging from the low 20s near the KS and MO borders to the low 30s near the TX border.
1236 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (Rest of Today) An upper low will begin to sink south through southern Manitoba and into the northern Plains today, pushing a dry but unseasonably cold airmass across a large portion of the CONUS. Temperatures will quickly fall this afternoon as high pressure pushes the cold air through the area, with much of the area dropping to the low to mid 40s by 4pm.
809 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Chilly and breezy conditions tonight following the passage of a cold front. A cold front will exit east of the mountains by this evening with a few lingering rain showers tapering off shortly after. Strong gusty winds aloft could be produce gusty winds at the surface along the cold front, continuing along the higher elevations through tonight. Another but dry cold front sinks from the north early Saturday, reinforcing the cold air in place. Lows tonight will sink into the upper 20s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper teens northeast mountains for a widespread freeze. Therefore, keep the area dry despite the dry cold front. This front will bring in a reinforcing shot of colder air, -16C at 850mb, along with gusty winds taking hold, particularly across the higher terrain.
631 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) The latest cold front continues to push offshore, ushering in moderate to fresh northerly winds with occasional gusts around 25 mph. Continuous cold air advection will bring temperatures down to the low to mid 40s tonight with the exception of the Piney Woods area cooling down to the upper 30s. These showers will start in our southwestern counties and push east throughout the day, with the highest chances (~30%) south of I-10.
Water vapor shows upper low over the Upper Midwest with short wave diving south across western SD, and upper ridge over the Pac NW. Snow showers and gusty northwest winds continue across much of western SD with short wave trof rotating around the main upper low. Rather flat upper ridge will build in over the weekend, with mainly dry weather expected.
No changes made to forecast timing or overall intensity regarding Saturday's expected showers and storms gradually working south across the peninsula ahead of an approaching cold front.
(Tonight) A relatively uneventful night weather-wise is underway this evening, with the recently departed cold front now well SE of our local CWFA, pushing into Ern GA and into the Carolinas. With the coldest air still NW over portions of the Ern Plains and into portions of Wrn MO/AR, morning lows will only fall to a degree or three south of the freezing mark.
(Now through Saturday) A large upper trough over the eastern half of the U. will remain through Saturday afternoon, while an embedded center of low pressure over the western Great Lakes lifts northeastward over southeast Canada. The backside of a line of showers with embedded thunderstorms will quickly clear the area from west to east through mid evening as a strong cold front progresses across the area. Saturday will be much colder, with highs only making it into the lower to middle 50's.
(This afternoon through Saturday) Cold front approaching attm with sharp NW wind just behind the rain shield now entering the state.
753 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Cold front and shower activity will push through the forecast area tonight.
444 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over the Upper Midwest with short wave diving south across western SD, and upper ridge over the Pac NW. Snow showers and gusty northwest winds continue across much of western SD with short wave trof rotating around the main upper low. Rather flat upper ridge will build in over the weekend, with mainly dry weather expected.
744 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Showers will end across the region this evening, as a cold front moves east of the Keystone state.
826 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Satellite imagery this evening shows just some thin high clouds spilling over the upper level ridge that extends north through the Northern Rockies. Hoenisch Quiet weather will continue through this weekend as high pressure maintains control over the area. 530 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (18/00Z TAF Period) VFR conditions prevail as an upper level ridge of high pressure shifts east across the northern Rockies with just some scattered high clouds moving across the region through Saturday. All of this pleasant weather is brought to us by means of upper level ridging, which has settled over our area and will remain with us through the upcoming weekend.
929 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 00Z upper air plots place an upper level low over Lake Superior and embedded within a broad upper level trough that encompasses much of the Continental United States. Meanwhile, surface analysis depicts a cold front from the Appalachian Mountains into the Central Gulf of Mexico and a secondary cold front stretching from the Great Lakes Region back through Northwest Missouri and into the Central Plains late this evening. This should allow for temperatures to approach freezing a bit further south and the existing Freeze Warning for tonight now includes areas from Panola County over to Itawamba County.
639 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) Cloud cover remains in place across much of the area this afternoon with much cooler temperatures than this time yesterday.
High pressure over the region to bring dry and mild weather through Saturday.
Currently - A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge extends west southwestward across the Bahamas and the Keys. This evenings sounding indicated a beefy subsidence inversion based around 850 mb with ample dry air through the lower and mid levels. Short Term Update - Surface through lower level ridging will continue to dominate through the overnight period. A ridge across South Florida and the Keys will maintain moderate southeasterly breezes.
617 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Cooler than normal weather sticks around through the weekend, with wind chills overnight expected to be near or below zero north of I-72 with values in the single digits south of there. Clearing has just about made its way to the IL/IN state line just after 2 pm as surface ridging continues to nose further eastward. A 500 mb upper trough will swing through the Great Lakes Region later today, pushing a lobe of vorticity through central IL tonight.
530 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Updated Aviation Discussion Quiet weather will continue through this weekend as high pressure maintains control over the area. All of this pleasant weather is brought to us by means of upper level ridging, which has settled over our area and will remain with us through the upcoming weekend.
Have also introduced a small mention of patchy frost in parts of Northwest Texas, and would not be surprised to see a few isolated readings in this area dip to (or below) freezing overnight. Therefore, most locations should stay above freezing overnight, ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
534 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Big closed low up over the Great lakes region with a moderate northwest flow pattern wrapping all the way back into northeast Colorado. Further west towards the Front Range less winds with a weak Longmont anticyclone in place and less clouds. For Saturday, high pressure ridge builds into the region with a drier and more subsident airmass. Temperatures only slightly warmer with coldest temperatures over the far northeast plains under a stronger temperature gradient from the Great Lakes low. Upper level ridging remains persistent over the Great Plains through the weekend.
924 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Mainly dry weather is expected tonight behind an exiting cold front.
907 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Cooler than normal weather sticks around through the weekend, with wind chills overnight expected to be near or below zero north of I-72 with values in the single digits south of there. Clearing has just about made its way to the IL/IN state line just after 2 pm as surface ridging continues to nose further eastward. A 500 mb upper trough will swing through the Great Lakes Region later today, pushing a lobe of vorticity through central IL tonight.
Another cold frontal passage will shift the winds to the nw after sunrise Sat. Gehring (Issued 353 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023) Tonight and Saturday: Low pressure over Quebec this evening will continue to move northeast out of the Great Lakes Region tonight. Gusty northwest to west winds will continue on the back side of the low through the overnight hours and into Saturday. An upper level low is expected to pivot through the state Saturday, which will bring a chance for some flurries.
This will be the first of 4 consecutive nights of freezing temperatures.
Tonight and Saturday Synopsis: Upper level low pressure will rotate across the western Great Lakes tonight before tracking to north of Lake Huron by Saturday afternoon. As the upper low moves overhead, deeper saturation will spread from northwest to southeast across the region this evening. With widespread clouds and snow showers, temps in the low to mid 20s can be expected.
809 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Showers will end across the region this evening, as a cold front moves east of the Keystone state.
715 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Tonight and Saturday: Cooler and dry through the period. Mid afternoon surface analysis showed a cold front just southeast of our CWA. Local radars still showed anafrontal rainfall over our east and southeast Mississippi zones but this activity will continue to taper off from the northwest as the cold front shifts farther to the southeast. This will result in cooler than normal morning lows in the 30s down to the Highway 84 corridor with lower 40s expected for our southern most zones. Surface ridging from the north will remain over our CWA Saturday keeping the Gulf closed. High temperatures will be well below normal topping out mainly in the lower 50s. Current model guidance highlight a high pressure system located along southern North Dakota slowly shifting south across the Central Plains by late Saturday night.
747 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Chilly and breezy conditions tonight following the passage of a cold front. A cold front will exit east of the mountains by this evening with a few lingering rain showers tapering off shortly after. Strong gusty winds aloft could be produce gusty winds at the surface along the cold front, continuing along the higher elevations through tonight. Another but dry cold front sinks from the north early Saturday, reinforcing the cold air in place. Lows tonight will sink into the upper 20s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper teens northeast mountains for a widespread freeze. Therefore, keep the area dry despite the dry cold front. This front will bring in a reinforcing shot of colder air, -16C at 850mb, along with gusty winds taking hold, particularly across the higher terrain.
703 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (Rest of today through Saturday) Weather conditions across South FL will remain dry and breezy this afternoon as an area of high pressure remains in place over the western Atlantic Ocean. However, the weather pattern begins to change tomorrow as an area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary make their way across the southeastern US towards the Florida peninsula. The interactions between the area of high pressure and approaching boundary will result in enhanced southerly flow, with wind speeds up to 12 kts and wind gusts up to 20 kts possible. The warming trend continues through the short term as highs today reach the low 80s along the East Coast and mid 80s in the interior.
A narrow upper ridge over the West Coast is presently shifting E of the area. Minimum temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer than last night, and a Freeze Warning doesn't appear to be warranted at this time.
621 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 The passage of a cold front will result in much cooler conditions over the weekend as an upper level low treks across the Great Lakes.
506 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Showers will end across the region this evening, as a cold front moves east of the Keystone state.
740 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Cooler than normal weather sticks around through the weekend, with wind chills overnight expected to be near or below zero north of I-72 with values in the single digits south of there. Clearing has just about made its way to the IL/IN state line just after 2 pm as surface ridging continues to nose further eastward. A 500 mb upper trough will swing through the Great Lakes Region later today, pushing a lobe of vorticity through central IL tonight.
641 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Anomalously cold airmass will slide southward tonight behind a secondary cold front resulting in temperatures some 20 degrees below climo on Saturday and Saturday night.
Light rain behind a cold front persists in southeast Kentucky late this afternoon, but will be exiting to the east and southeast as the cold front continues to pull away. Under an unusually strong late season upper trough, another cold front will move through from the northwest on Saturday.
- Cooler temperatures arrive tonight lasting into Saturday night resulting in wind chills as low as 15 below zero across north central Nebraska tonight. Skies become clear overnight as upper level ridging begins to build into the region. This will in turn result in wind chills to range from the low positive single digits into negative single digits. Despite mostly clear skies on Saturday, cold air advection into the region tomorrow will keep highs on the lower side of guidance. Overall, temperatures will range from the low 30s in southwest Nebraska to the low 20s in extreme north central Nebraska.
As high pressure settles over the area tonight, light winds and clearing conditions will lead to excellent radiational cooling driving temperatures into the single digits in low-lying areas.