Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
952 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Line of rain showers continues to approach the Highway 2 corridor, moving slowly south southeast. Temps still seem on track to get into the low to mid 60s in most areas. -Light showers move across the area today in response to a cold front. Much cooler temperatures Tuesday morning; patchy frost is possible, especially for portions of the Devils Lake Basin and northern Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb into the low 70s in portions of the southern Red River Valley; however, areas further north will only see upper 50s to middle 60s. Much cooler air moves into the region overnight, bringing a chance for frost to portions of the area. Elsewhere, temperatures are currently forecast to fall into the low 40s and upper 30s; however, this will be highly dependent upon cloud cover.
Chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms return to the southern Great Basin this afternoon, favoring the higher terrain.
With quasi-zonal flow aloft and a mid-level high pressure stationed over northern Mexico, drier air is expected to filter in across South Texas with PWAT values between 1. Temperatures are expected to be a couple degrees cooler Tuesday. Overnight lows Monday night are expected to drop into the lower to upper 70s.
The main concern later today into tonight will be the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms as a cold front works its way south across the area overnight.
716 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 A stalled front will dissolve and be nudged east of the area today, followed by the arrival of a ridge of high pressure tonight. A cold front will push through the region Tuesday night, then Canadian high pressure will build into the region for the second half of the week. The focus for Tuesday turns to an approaching cold front over the Grt Lks.
616 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 A high pressure system will continue to bring pleasant and dry weather with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s through today. A cold front is expected move in late tonight bringing back rain chances tomorrow morning through the evening.
Quiet and dry conditions are expected today as upper level ridging moves overhead. Temperatures will climb into the mid-70s to mid-80s beneath this ridge, with additional warming expected into the day on Tuesday. H500 ridge axis was moving over the Northern Rockies early this morning, with GOES WV imagery showing strong subsidence and associated dry mid- to upper level air overspreading Southwest through North Central Montana. Outside of the potential for morning fog, dry and quiet conditions are expected through the day today beneath the ridge, with high temperatures climbing above normal across all lower elevations. As the ridge begins to be flattened and Pacific moisture is advected east, expect increasing mid- to upper level cloudiness to overspread the CWA, which will in turn help to keep temperatures tonight some 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
632 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (Today) A ridging west/troughing east setup which was in place over the greater North American domain this weekend, should break down into a more zonal pattern for the first portion of this week.
611 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (Today) Showers are starting to spread into western portions of Green Country this morning in advance of a cold front that stretches from the Kansas City area into northwest Oklahoma. Abundant cloud cover and the advancing front will help hold temperatures in the 70s across the northwest half of the area but a delayed wind shift will still allow highs to warm into the lower and mid 80s to the southeast of the shower activity.
A developing mid-level trough over the Great Lakes will also move east, with showers moving into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday morning.
Longer range ensemble Cluster Analysis still shows a strong signal toward the building of a ridge pattern over CONUS. Ensemble Cluster Analysis continues to show minimal error in the timing of the ridge development but does show some deviation in the amplitude and position of the ridge. Therefore, some variability exist on the strength of the ridge pattern and how hot temperatures can become during the week after the cool down.
Tuesday currently looks to be slight warmer than Monday as high temperatures warm into the 70s.
Cooler temperatures for the first half of the work week with a gradual warm up towards the weekend. Additionally, the cold pool from the trough will help lapse rates be in the 7-8 C/km range, therefore, an isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out. The upper trough is expected to continue to develop into an upper level low pressure Tuesday over southern Ontario into the Great Lakes region. WIth the upper trough dominating the weather pattern the first part of the work week, temperatures will be rather cool for portions of MN along the Canadian Border.
This low then connects via a cold front to a low in northern Virginia. At the same time a weak mid level trough moves from the low northward is along the Appalachians. This trough will actually be absorbed by the front to the south later today.
500 mb high pressure will remain the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA for the period, even though the center of this feature will be suppressed into western Mexico from its initial northwest Mexico position. The best chance for convection will be over the lower Texas coastal waters, where precipitable water values will be best.
A cooler air mass will then grip The Great Lakes by midweek, offering temperatures that are about 10 degrees below what is considered normal for the season. Key Messages: * There is a 40-60% chance for rain today along a cold front with coverage expanding later this afternoon into the evening; amounts on the lighter side.
1044 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Clouds in the northern TN Valley and SW VA have been slow to lift with the lowering sun angle and light/calm winds through the bounary layer. Heights will rise across our area today as brief ridging ahead of the next upper trough builds in.
Seasonal temperatures are forecasted for much of the week but conditions will likely warm towards the week's end as upper-level ridging rebounds over the region.
614 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 A stalled front will dissolve and be nudged east of the area today, followed by the arrival of a ridge of high pressure tonight. A cold front will push through the region Tuesday night, then Canadian high pressure will build into the region for the second half of the week. The focus for Tuesday turns to an approaching cold front over the Grt Lks.
Temperatures only reach into the low to mid 90s for many with 100s confined to the Rio Grande Valley. A cold front begins to enter the region from the north during the mid-afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and behind the cold front by mid-afternoon. Increasing mid-level flow and steepening lapse rates with the approaching trough aide in the potential for severe weather. Numerous thunderstorms are expected along the cold front from southeast New Mexico through the Permian Basin. Additionally, any thunderstorms that can stay ahead of the cold front may pose an isolated tornado threat. Much cooler weather is expected as a result of cloud cover and additional showers and thunderstorms.
636 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Today and Tonight: It will be dry through the period with warmer temperatures. Early morning surface analysis still had a >1018mb ridge oriented northeast to southwest just to our northwest. This will maintain a light northeast flow across the CWA this morning limiting the return of Gulf moisture but the ridge will weaken through tonight and allow for a slow increase in low level moisture going into Tuesday. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed our CWA on the west side of an upper level trough and on the eastern periphery of and upper level high. The upper level trough will shift east through tonight while the upper level high to the west weakens over our region.
523 AM MDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Weak ridging will shift east across western WY today, bringing increased subsidence, leading to a reduction in thunderstorm chances during the day. Models have been resolving a few showers this afternoon, focused on the highest elevations of the Wind River Range and the far southern Absarokas, but are still expected to be brief and have trouble exiting the higher elevations. As the ridge slowly shifts east on Tuesday, expect similar conditions, with restricted shower chances limited to the highest elevations in the afternoon.
A trailing cold front was bisecting Kansas with some post-frontal showers/embedded thunderstorm activity ongoing across the area. Some lingering cloud cover across southern Kansas may result in higher temperatures but as high pressure noses into central and northern Kansas bringing light winds and clearing conditions we could see some minimum temperatures dipping into the 40s. Tranquil weather conditions and seasonably cool conditions are anticipated through the period as a mid/upper trough remains situated near the Great Lakes area and some mid/upper level ridging returns to the central CONUS. The low level moist axis may remain further west on Thu keeping the better chances for meaningful precipitation west of the area but low pops were maintained across the area through Sat as the mid/upper trough moves across the area.
-Light showers move across the area today in response to a cold front. Much cooler temperatures Tuesday morning; patchy frost is possible, especially for portions of the Devils Lake Basin and northern Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb into the low 70s in portions of the southern Red River Valley; however, areas further north will only see upper 50s to middle 60s. Much cooler air moves into the region overnight, bringing a chance for frost to portions of the area. Elsewhere, temperatures are currently forecast to fall into the low 40s and upper 30s; however, this will be highly dependent upon cloud cover.
Most of the precip assocd with the bndry wl be post-fntl as a mid lvl trof passes acrs the FA.
637 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 The anticipated cold front has entered the CWA. The forecast concerning the cold front (and most of the forecast thereafter) is generally the same as it has been. Unfortunately, the areas with the highest chance at seeing more rain aren't the places that need it the most - southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois top out at D0 drought. As such, expect radiational cooling to pull nighttime lows down into the upper 40s and low 50s with locally cooler values.
Decaying cold front is struggling to bring precipitation to SW Washington and NW Oregon early this morning.
628 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Upper ridging centered over the Gulf of California extending northward through the northern Rockies. Troughing extended from the Appalachians into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with another trough from Hudson Bay into the northern Plains States. Temperatures at 3 AM CDT this morning ranged from the mid 60s to mid 70s, with the exception of the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain, where the nearby warmer lake waters are holding readings in the lower 80s.
Dry conditions are expected to prevail across our area through tonight per surface ridging influences aided by initially dry quasi zonal flow aloft that will develop southwesterly flow characteristics as tonight progresses. Tuesday morning isolated to scattered showers will give way to scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon as a surface cold front pushes through mid state region in association with broad upper level troughing influences across much of eastern contingous U. originating from Great Lakes closed upper level low. Highs on Tuesday will certainly reflect surface cold frontal passage, with highs mainly in mid to upper 70s, around 80 near TN/AL Border Region.
A long wave trough will dip southeast to the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early this week. Some patchy frost is possible over WI Tuesday night as high pressure builds overhead. The trough will kick out midweek and temperatures will rebound back to near 80 for late week.
631 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Stationary front will slowly drift east today with high pressure building in this afternoon.
612 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (Today and tonight) Our much advertised pattern change has finally arrived as upper ridging finally breaks down, ushering in fall-like temperatures and widespread rain chances across the region. With widespread rain/clouds and a northeasterly breeze behind the cold front, temperatures may struggle to rise out of the 60s today across the northern half of the area, with 70s and a few 80s expected further south near the Red River.
(Today) Showers are starting to spread into western portions of Green Country this morning in advance of a cold front that stretches from the Kansas City area into northwest Oklahoma. Abundant cloud cover and the advancing front will help hold temperatures in the 70s across the northwest half of the area but a delayed wind shift will still allow highs to warm into the lower and mid 80s to the southeast of the shower activity.
306 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Tonight and Tuesday: An upper ridge axis will continue to bring mild temperatures and light winds for the evening. On Tuesday, an upper level trough located over the Great Lakes with an associated frontal boundary continues to move into the ArkLaMiss region throughout the day Tuesday.
A cold front is forecast to pass through the region tonight and should be largely southeast of the forecast area by daybreak Tuesday.
Vorticity lobe on the backside of the upper trough continues to dig down out of Canada this afternoon, and will progress southeastwards into MN overnight. Cold front has pushed through most of the CWA, but scattered showers continue across many of the counties except the northwest. Tonight, there will be some subsidence and high pressure coming in behind the frontal boundary. Given upstream dew points are still pretty high in the low 40s to upper 30s, leaned towards the middle of the ensemble pack with low temps around 37 to 38 in our northwest.
Continue to see a transition to a westerly flow as a weak upper level trough gains influence over the Pacific Northwest. This is allowing a little more cloudiness into the region today that will suppress temperatures resulting in cooler temperatures today.
(This evening through Tuesday) Upper level trough to the northeast and high pressure system to the southwest will give strong upper level westerly winds. High pressure system seems to remain stagnant while the upper level trough propagates to the east through tomorrow evening. A mid to upper level trough will develop over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico this afternoon. Cold front has moved into the northwest portions of the CWA bringing breezy northeasterly winds ranging from 10 to 20 mph. Following the cold front, temperatures tomorrow will be cooler with high temperatures in the lower 70s across the rolling plains and upper 60s across the South Plains with wide spread stratus. In addition, winds will veer to the east from the high pressure system sitting over Kansas.
Radar is quiet early this afternoon but visibly satellite imagery is showing a convective nature to the low level cumulus field. Ridging aloft looks to bring quiet weather to central and western Nebraska tonight and tomorrow, though the ridge is a bit noisy with a series of weak short waves cresting the ridge and moving over the region. Highs tomorrow will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal with afternoon temperatures peaking in the low to mid 70s.
240 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms today along with continued cooler temperatures through the short term period. Currently, upper level ridge extends from the Great Basin north/northeast through central Saskatchewan, with an upper level trough over the Great Lakes region. For Tuesday, ridge axis moves overhead, with increasing return flow across the Dakotas.
High pressure currently resides over the region today, with a shield of mid to high level clouds increasing from the west.
A cooler air mass will then grip The Great Lakes by midweek, offering temperatures that are about 10 degrees below what is considered normal for the season. Scattered rain showers are ongoing near and west of the IL River along a cold front as of 10 am. NMA Key Messages: * There is a 40-60% chance for rain today along a cold front with coverage expanding later this afternoon into the evening; amounts on the lighter side.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) The small region of high pressure that South Florida has been under will be pinched by the approaching mid-level Great Lakes trough and Hurricane Lee over the Atlantic. Despite the ridge, the airmass over the region remains sufficiently capable of supporting shower and thunderstorm activity. Easterly wind will become northeasterly on Tuesday as the high is pinched back a tad.
As northerly winds pick up behind the departing low pressure, waves will build and create a swim risk for Lake Michigan beaches.
Flow aloft will shift to a northwesterly direction as an upper level trough moves inland bringing cooler temperatures back to the region Tuesday.
High pressure will weaken across the Mid-South tonight as a cold front moves into the area late tonight into Tuesday. Rain showers are expected to linger into the afternoon with high pressure returning by Tuesday night.
Later tnt and Tuesday will bring ridging aloft, and generally dry conditions.
1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 High pressure still remains in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning. Temperatures as of 11 AM CDT are in the lower 80s and increasing clouds should keep temperatures from reaching 90 degrees. GNC A high pressure system will continue to bring pleasant and dry weather with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s through today. A cold front is expected move in late tonight bringing back rain chances tomorrow morning through the evening.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Broad upper-level ridging will be the dominant feature for the short term. Temperatures across Deep South Texas are expected to reach the low 100s again Tuesday afternoon, and drop to the mid 70s overnight tonight and Tuesday night.
Cooler today with more substantial cooling through much of this week. The slightly cooler start to the day, and the expected return of high clouds, should cap max temps a little lower most areas, than those logged yesterday. We continue with low POPs as well, mainly over the mountains, where the higher elevations have a better chance of light, measurable rainfall.
401 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 A stationary front will slowly drift east today with high pressure gradually building in.
1216 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (The rest of today ) Upper trough axis entering the plains this morning will continue moving E-SE today. Increased coverage for rain and isolated thunder looks to be later today as the upper trough draws closer and begins to push a surface cold front through the area.
(The rest of today ) Upper trough axis entering the plains this morning will continue moving E-SE today. Increased coverage for rain and isolated thunder looks to be later today as the upper trough draws closer and begins to push a surface cold front through the area.
Northerly winds do pick up in speed behind the departing low pressure tonight and tomorrow, but waves are the main concern for the nearshore zones. Temps will struggle into the low to mid 60s today given the precip, clouds, and a cooler airmass aloft.
Low temperatures will fall into the lower 70s inland and mid 70s on the coast, with high moisture and light winds, patchy inland fog is possible just before sunrise.
Clouds/rain holding temps in the 60s this afternoon although the JXN area could poke up into the lower 70s before the steadier rain arrives.
A dry, weak cold front will move across the Bay Area this evening into Tuesday morning, which will bring breezier westerly winds and will mix out the marine layer. Slightly cooler temperatures expected Tuesday. Tonight through Tuesday: A weak dry cold front currently over far NorCal will move south with little fanfare.
CAMs a bit at odds with where the higher pcpn chances will lie, but overall scattered coverage looks to be the way to go. With clearing skies and generally light winds Wed and Thu mornings, diurnal cooling could push temps into the low/mid 30s across drainage areas/cranberry bog region of central WI. Not a big push of warmer air, but should result in highs climbing back into the mid/upper 70s (around 80 for some) - seasonable for early/mid Sep. The GEFS and EPS members take the ridge east by the weekend, driving an upper level trough from western Canada to across the upper mississippi river valley Fri night/Sat. Stronger, deeper forcing could hold well north of the local area, with only a weakly convergent associated cold front/meager moisture transport to fuel pcpn chances.
(Through Tuesday) A mid-level level ridge at the 500mb level centered over the Bahamas today, will retrograde westward towards Miami on Tuesday. An upper level trough and associated jet streak across the ARKLATEX region will provide some upper level forcing for ascent as divergence aloft will be prevalent across the region with the aforementioned trough axis forecast to be in place across the northern central Gulf Coast. Overall, expect more widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday, with high temperatures climbing into the low 90s, and morning lows forecast in the low 70s.
A surface cold front will continue to push southward as well, likely aided by the current precipitation. By early Tuesday, the surface cold front/wind shift should be well south of most of Oklahoma and northern Texas.
- High pressure and light winds Tuesday night will produce the coolest overnight lows since May for most locations, with patchy frost possible in portions of west central Wisconsin. Currently, we're seeing scattered SHRA/TSRA moving into the northern portion of the area in association with the upper trough and mid-level cold pocket dropping southeast into the area. High pressure will assert itself Tuesday night, particularly over the north/east portion of the area.
Cooler weather is expected the rest of the week as a cold front arrives tonight.
151 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Upper level ridging will warm afternoon high temperatures back above normal for the next couple of days, with dry conditions expected through Tuesday morning.
1257 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Upper ridging centered over the Gulf of California extending northward through the northern Rockies. Troughing extended from the Appalachians into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with another trough from Hudson Bay into the northern Plains States. Temperatures at 3 AM CDT this morning ranged from the mid 60s to mid 70s, with the exception of the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain, where the nearby warmer lake waters are holding readings in the lower 80s.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Message: - Hot and Dry Conditions Continue Early This Week A mid-level high pressure over northern Mexico will result in continued hot and dry conditions today and tonight.
A cold front is currently easing into northeast Oklahoma this afternoon and will be near the Red River near sunrise on Tuesday.
(Rest of Today) Current temps over the central TN Valley have rebounded into the upper 70s/near 80F for most spots from their earlier lows mainly in the lower/mid 60s.
Mean-layer ridging centered near Bermuda and the Bahamas appears to have a weakness in its midsection, analyzed by CIMSS mean layer and model initialization analyses. NOAA G4 observations today will improve our understanding of the weakness in the ridge. Water vapor imagery highlights a positively tilted long-wave trough extending down through the central Gulf coast into the Bay of Campeche. The low- level ridge axis stretches west across Florida, with the outer reaches of diffluent, yet cyclonic flow impinging on the southeastern Bahamas. Weak high pressure over the North Atlantic will continue to retreat away from Florida today.