Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Skies are clearing and temperatures warming right on schedule, reaching the middle 70s as of the 16Z hour, on pace to climb into the low to middle 80s this afternoon, as gusty southwest winds continue areawide. These temperatures should peak on Wednesday, with afternoon highs tailored towards some compressional heating ahead of the cold front. Over the past few days, the low that was supposed to be the catalyst for this severe weather has tracked farther north. Here, a marginal risk is in place, since they aren't entirely removed from the best forcing with the low. /44/ (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) A frontal boundary lagging behind an exiting storm system will move across the ArkLaTex on Wednesday night with high pressure building in its wake.
1244 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 A cold front will move across the region today and prevent temperatures from rising much above 40 today. A strong system will bring mostly rain Wednesday into Wednesday night; however, there is a good chance for freezing rain near the Michigan border bringing ice accumulations.
(Tonight) We remain under the influence of an upper ridge that will continue to build over the western Atlantic/eastern Gulf, keeping mostly zonal flow in place aloft.
/12 (Now through Wednesday) Forecast generally on track for today, but did have to warm daytime highs by several degrees at most locations as we quickly jumped up into the mid and upper 70s at most locations this morning, but expect slightly cooler low to mid 70s at the coast. At the sfc, high pressure will remain off the southeast coast resulting in continued southerly flow and increasing moisture across the area with precipitable water values climbing to around 1 inch Wednesday afternoon. The pressure gradient will tighten across the area on Wednesday as an area of low pressure develops and moves into the midwestern states.
From synopsis, High pressure in the western North Atlantic has extended western over the southeastern United States, Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Breezes will freshen slightly and veer towards the southeast tonight as the ridge links across Florida and the Bahamas.
Also, the stalled front will start lifting north as a warm front late in the day. A cold front will move through the region on Wednesday bringing a shot for an isolated strong storm.
Ridging continues to sit over the area producing quiet and warm weather.
326 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 Freezing rain and rain arrive from south to north early Wednesday morning. The greatest risk for freezing rain and slippery travel conditions are in southern Michigan.
These systems will bring periods of strong winds, along with valley rain and mountain snow and cooler temperatures. The high winds will be followed by and/or coincide with increasing precipitation chances as the storm passes through the region.
Moderate to fresh breezes will then persist into this weekend as a large mid to upper level high squats between the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas. Sometime this weekend, an incoming trough will attempt to shove the ridge south breaking the pattern by pulling our winds back down but timing continues to be up in the air. From synopsis, high pressure in the western North Atlantic extends west over the southeastern United States, Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Breezes will freshen slightly and veer towards the southeast overnight as the ridge links across Florida and the Bahamas.
A warm front currently draped over the northern portions of the ArkLaTex is expected to move further northward Wednesday, allowing for additional temperature and moisture advection. Beyond Wednesday, a cold front looks to slide south and stall along the ArkLaTex borders.
Winter Storm and High Wind Warnings are in effect as blizzard like conditions are possible over the high country. The heaviest snow will be associated with a cold front due to sweep across the areas late tonight through Wednesday morning; however, post- frontal snow showers will persist throughout the day on Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, most of northern Arizona is forecast to see sub-freezing conditions, with temperatures along the Mogollon Rim and in the mountains of northeast Arizona dropping into the teens.
Water vapor imagery showing the upper ridge slowly nudging Nward into the region from the N Carib while very dry air remains aloft. Ridging continues to sit over the area producing quiet and warm weather.
649 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 Tonight and Wednesday: Much warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the period with greater chances for rain across the CWA by Wednesday afternoon. Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning just south of Arizona. This closed low will open up tonight as it tracks northeast across the Texas Big Bend and continue northeast Wednesday to the southern Great Lakes region by evening. The warm southerly wind combined with cloud cover tonight will help hold temperatures in the low to mid 60s. In addition, temperatures will top out in the lower 80s at most locations Wednesday resulting in a couple record highs for the date.
645 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 Freezing rain and rain arrive from south to north early Wednesday morning. The greatest risk for freezing rain and slippery travel conditions are in southern Michigan.
524 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 (Tonight) We remain under the influence of an upper ridge that will continue to build over the western Atlantic/eastern Gulf, keeping mostly zonal flow in place aloft.
302 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the Black Hills, with arctic boundary starting to slowly slide south across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and west central SD. Upper level analysis shows trough digging south across the Pacific NW, with strong jet extending eastward into the Northern Plains. KUDX radar shows some upslope snow across the higher elevations of the northern/western Black Hills and some light snow across parts of northwest SD, with rain/snow/wintry mix elsewhere near and south of the boundary. Snow will continue to develop and expand late today/tonight as the next wave moves across and a prolonged overrunning setup takes place as energy/warmer air aloft pass over the arctic airmass at the surface.
631 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 (Rest of today through Wednesday) A deep layer ridge of high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will slowly shift into the western Atlantic through tonight and Wednesday. As this ridge shifts into the western Atlantic, winds will become southeasterly as Wednesday progresses. The warm temperatures will continue as highs rise into the lower to mid 80s across the east coast metro areas, and up to around 90 over interior portions of Southwest Florida.
The risk of flash freezing is much greater if roadways are already wet or snow covered prior to the arrival of arctic air.
410 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the Black Hills, with arctic boundary starting to slowly slide south across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and west central SD. Upper level analysis shows trough digging south across the Pacific NW, with strong jet extending eastward into the Northern Plains. KUDX radar shows some upslope snow across the higher elevations of the northern/western Black Hills and some light snow across parts of northwest SD, with rain/snow/wintry mix elsewhere near and south of the boundary. Snow will continue to develop and expand late today/tonight as the next wave moves across and a prolonged overrunning setup takes place as energy/warmer air aloft pass over the arctic airmass at the surface.
trough will be amplified by a short wave diving southeastward across California this morning. Therefore the downstream ridge of the Southeast will build. It will be another unseasonably warm day with afternoon temps peaking in the lower 80s inland and lower to mid 70s near the coast.
The winds will be breezy out of the south overnight, with low temperatures falling into the low to mid 60s. /15/ Tonight and Wednesday: Much warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the period with greater chances for rain across the CWA by Wednesday afternoon. Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning just south of Arizona. This closed low will open up tonight as it tracks northeast across the Texas Big Bend and continue northeast Wednesday to the southern Great Lakes region by evening. The warm southerly wind combined with cloud cover tonight will help hold temperatures in the low to mid 60s. In addition, temperatures will top out in the lower 80s at most locations Wednesday resulting in a couple record highs for the date.
The lowest reading seen so far is Big Pine Key, which dropped to the mid 60s. A robust high pressure anchored over the Keys and the southeastern United States will promote warm and dry weather conditions now through the end of the week. The abnormally strong high pressure will shield the areas above from significant wetting rains due to the subsidence in the atmospheric column, which will suppress the cloud's vertical development and yield nil rain changes over the next six days. The ridging will cause daytime high temperatures to soar to the mid to upper 80s. High pressure in the western North Atlantic stretches west over the Bahamas and South Florida. Breezes will freshen slightly and veer towards the southeast this morning as the ridge gradually lifts north across Florida and the Bahamas.
1050 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 (Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening as a mid/upper ridge of high pressure will continue to build into the area overnight. These clouds and the warmer, moist air mass will result in an extremely mild night once more as temperatures will likely remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most of the night.
This boundary will make some additional southward progress through the afternoon before turning back to the north as a warm front tonight. Dynamics associated with the warm front wont really take shape until the boundary is well north of middle TN. On Wednesday a weakening cold front will be on approach. Turning cooler Thu nt.
(Today) A strong low pressure in western KS was developing this morning, owing to a vast area of moist and unseasonably warm southerly flow across the Gulf states northward into the TN valley.
Went ahead and raised temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday with many areas in the low and mid 80s. Toward the surface, well- defined low pressure will develop across the Plains and move northeast into Missouri toward midday. Winds will be on the increase due to a tightening pressure gradient between high pressure to our southeast and low pressure closer to our northwest. Highs will be very unseasonably warm with readings from the upper 70s north and northeast to the low 80s far south and southwest.
Winter Storm and High Wind Warnings are in effect, with periods of blizzard conditions possible over the high country. A deepening trough over the central Sierras this evening will continuing deepening as it heads into northern Arizona tonight. The trough will actually experience falling hghts all the way through 15Z, before shearing out over western Colorado by early Wednesday afternoon. This trough, simply put, will bring the most impactful weather event to our area so far this winter. Wind chill readings falling below zero will be common in the high country through Wednesday night.
1212 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 Freezing rain and rain arrive from south to north early Wednesday morning. The greatest risk for freezing rain and slippery travel conditions are in southern Michigan. A brief period of freezing rain is possible as far south as LaGrange, Steuben, Williams and Fulton (OH) counties Wednesday morning, but a transition to rain is expected to be quick. Freezing rain will linger longest in Branch and Hillsdale counties where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. Dynamically, my gut favors this lower ice forecast because of the stout warm nose (10C) that is forecast to develop. Precipitation would fall through this stout warm layer, only to return to a surface airmass that is right at freezing.
127 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2023 As the upper trough digs into the western CONUS, light snow is expanding over the northern plains. The cold front has pushed into NE, and temperatures have plummeted into the single digits as very cold air filters in.
330 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 (Today through Thursday) High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue its eastward progression into the Atlantic waters through the short term period. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will rise to the mid 80s along the East Coast, but could reach the lower 90s in areas of interior and southwest Florida.
(Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening as a mid/upper ridge of high pressure will continue to build into the area overnight. These clouds and the warmer, moist air mass will result in an extremely mild night once more as temperatures will likely remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most of the night.
955 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the Black Hills, with arctic boundary starting to slowly slide south across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and west central SD. Upper level analysis shows trough digging south across the Pacific NW, with strong jet extending eastward into the Northern Plains. KUDX radar shows some upslope snow across the higher elevations of the northern/western Black Hills and some light snow across parts of northwest SD, with rain/snow/wintry mix elsewhere near and south of the boundary. Snow will continue to develop and expand late today/tonight as the next wave moves across and a prolonged overrunning setup takes place as energy/warmer air aloft pass over the arctic airmass at the surface.
A major complicating factor and forecast challenge will be how far south does the cold front currently across Kansas progress, as latest models suggest it may make it well into northern Oklahoma by early afternoon today, greatly reducing fire potential there. The cold front will make slow progress southward overnight before accelerating a bit more towards daybreak Thursday.
Isentropic ascent ahead of a rising warm front will be the initial trigger for rain and a few thunderstorms as early as an hour or two before sunrise. MLCAPE values will reside under 1000 J/kg, mostly hanging around 500- 750 J/k at the highest with strong low-level and mid-level wind fields contributing 55-65 knots of bulk shear. Dry conditions will settle into Wednesday evening for most of the area as a cold front drops into the forecast area.
(Today through Thursday) A warm front has pushed across the state this evening, resulting in the start of an unseasonably warm next 48 hours. A weakening cold front is on approach and latest model soundings hint at a narrow window for some strong storms to develop west of I-65 late Wednesday afternoon/early evening once they cross the Tennessee River. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Once the cold front pushes through, temps will take a big dive as lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s Thursday night.
A low pressure system currently over southwest Kansas will begin to track northeastward today, and this will push the precipitation shield back to the north, with the entire CWA likely seeing snow again by mid afternoon at the latest. The low will track to Illinois tonight, with a strong pressure gradient developing over eastern South Dakota this afternoon through Thursday morning. The precipitation should exit the area by midday Thursday, with high pressure then nosing in during the afternoon hours. Core of a 1045mb high pressure system is moving overhead Thursday night, and with fresh snow cover, anticipate temperatures will crash.
626 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 (Today through Thursday) High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue its eastward progression into the Atlantic waters through the short term period. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will rise to the mid 80s along the East Coast, but could reach the lower 90s in areas of interior and southwest Florida.
ranging from the lower 40s far north around Galesburg. to the lower 60s along the I-72 corridor. to the lower 70s far southeast near Lawrenceville. 09z/3am surface analysis shows low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies across western Kansas. with a warm front extending eastward into the lower Ohio River Valley. particularly cells tracking near the warm front draped just north of I-72. with a very low risk of a tornado near the warm front where low-level shear will be enhanced. Cold front will sweep across central Illinois on Thursday: however, with deep-layer moisture shunted well to the east, am not expecting any additional precip.
451 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 (Today through Thursday) A warm front has pushed across the state this evening, resulting in the start of an unseasonably warm next 48 hours. A weakening cold front is on approach and latest model soundings hint at a narrow window for some strong storms to develop west of I-65 late Wednesday afternoon/early evening once they cross the Tennessee River. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Once the cold front pushes through, temps will take a big dive as lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s Thursday night.
442 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 (Today) A strong low pressure in western KS was developing this morning, owing to a vast area of moist and unseasonably warm southerly flow across the Gulf states northward into the TN valley.
The pressure gradient ahead of the cold front today is already very tight, and winds are already gusting over 20 knots in some locations. It also still looks like this trough will eject NE like a rocket into the early afternoon, so expect rain chances to be very progressive. There still remains the chance for an isolated strong to severe storm in our NW zones, tied to the better forcing with the low pressure.
Freezing rain and snow will be widespread north of the Michigan line where significant travel impacts are expected. Windy conditions are likely Thursday as the low moves northeast. At the onset early this morning, temperatures were around 30 degrees near the Michigan border to a few degrees above freezing farther south. Some concern that very low wet bulb temperatures in the lower levels at the onset of this event will hold temperatures back a few hours, thus increasing ice potential.
An upper level low over the Great Basin is going to bring additional snow accumulations to the Northern Plains this afternoon.
Freezing rain and snow will be widespread near the Indiana Michigan line where significant travel impacts are expected. Windy conditions are likely Thursday as the low moves northeast. At the onset early this morning, temperatures were around 30 degrees near the Michigan border to a few degrees above freezing farther south. Some concern that very low wet bulb temperatures in the lower levels at the onset of this event will hold temperatures back a few hours, thus increasing ice potential.
High pressure will be in place across the waters through the period, with winds and seas remaining generally at or below 15kts with seas 3 feet or less through the period. Dry high pressure will be in place across the area through the week, with humidities expected to remain above critical levels.
Winter Storm and High Wind Warnings are in effect, with periods of near blizzard conditions possible over the high country.
437 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 An upper level low over the Great Basin is going to bring additional snow accumulations to the Northern Plains this afternoon.
These systems will bring periods of strong winds, along with valley rain, mountain snow and cooler temperatures. Widespread sustained winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph early this morning will increase as a cold front sweeps in from the west/northwest through mid day. We should be slow to clear out as the mean trough position is maintained through additional energy splitting down the coast, and we keep some flavor of westerly to southwesterly flow rather than the typical scenario (where the trough pushes east of the area and we are left with a dry and cooler northwesterly to northerly flow).
High temperatures on Thursday will be in the morning in many locations with falling temperatures as cold high pressure builds in.
435 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2023 As the upper trough digs into the western CONUS, light snow is expanding over the northern plains. The cold front has pushed into NE, and temperatures have plummeted into the single digits as very cold air filters in.
After convection leaves the CWA by late this afternoon, cooler air will gradually infiltrate the region from the west. The synoptic cold front is forecast to move through the area late tonight into early Thursday morning.
Clearing skies will also spread eastward and temps will warm with southwesterly winds and falling humidity values ahead of the cold front. The cold front is making steady progress southward and latest short term guidance has temps slightly cooler just south of the OK/KS line and the update will lower temps slightly accordingly.
(This evening through Thursday) The cold front has already begun nudging into northwest Oklahoma, bringing north winds and much colder air behind it.
Temperatures will warm with southwesterly winds and falling humidity values ahead of the cold front this afternoon. The cold front will push into the far northwest corner of the CWA the next couple of hours, reaching Tulsa during the evening. Much cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front. (Tonight through Wednesday) The surface cold front will continue to push through the area tonight with much cooler air spilling into the area. Expect mostly sunny skies during the day Thursday, but temperatures will still be much cooler than today, with highs ranging from the mid 40s in the north to the mid 60s in the south.
It will remain breezy overnight with additional snowfall anywhere from a Trace to near 3 inches, the highest across the Bear River Range and the South Hills and central mountains.
126 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 After a brief break in showers later this afternoon, rain and gusty winds can be expected with an overnight cold front. Latest sfc obs show the advancing warm front currently in the vicinity of the Mason-Dixon line early this afternoon. As the low remains to the northwest, the Upper Ohio River Valley will experience a tightening sfc gradient and deep mixing fostered by strong sfc warm advection.
Current temperatures throughout the Florida Keys were already in the lower 80s. Deep mean layer ridging will remain dominant across the Florida Keys today with the center of the ridge east of the area over the Northwest Bahamas. From synopsis, high pressure in the western North Atlantic stretches west over the Bahamas and South Florida. Southeast breezes will freshen slightly this afternoon as the ridge gradually lifts north across Florida and the Bahamas.
The core of the upper trough is situated over our area this morning and will gradually move to our northeast this afternoon. Isolated to scattered snow showers will continue through the day, with coverage and intensity increasing during the afternoon owing to the instability associated with the trough. Forecast was updated to add isolated snow showers to the lower valleys today.
Mid Afternoon surface analysis had a weak cold front across the ArkLaTex and over east Arkansas. With dwindling upper level support, the cold front will have a hard time entering our CWA. Regional radars showed a few showers along and east of the cold front that will slowly spread across our CWA through tonight before tapering off. Many sites have climbed into the lower 80s. More sites will top out in the lower 80s Thursday.
Lighter winds (5 to 10 kts) Thursday morning will allow the lower CIGs/VISBYs to last well into the morning hours. At the surface, high pressure will remain off the southeast coast resulting in a continued general south flow across the area which will continue to bring increased low level moisture into the area with precipitable water values climbing to 1.