Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Getting into the morning on Tuesday, the upper Midwest trough will move eastward, bringing a cold front through the area as well as some showers and thunderstorms.
Today's batch of rain will progress south this afternoon and evening while a drier and cooler air mass currently to our north advects into the area. Patchy radiational fog development still seems likely tonight due to the combination of wet grounds, clear skies, light winds and crossover temperatures in the low 60s. Surface ridging keeps conditions pleasant the next few days with sunshine and highs in the 70s.
It will be a cooler night Tuesday night as temperatures fall into the low 50s and even upper 40s under high pressure. The next trough is expected to move through this weekend, accompanied by another surface cold front. There's still a lot of variability in the guidance on the timing and strength of this trough, but the general idea of a trough and cold front moving through is strongly agreed upon.
Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower to middle 40s across north- central Wisconsin to around 50 across east-central Wisconsin.
343 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 A mid level trough will dig southeast into the Great Lakes through Tuesday night. This will push a cold front southeast across the region, bringing the threat for showers and a few thunderstorms.
The added cloud cover will also keep temperatures a little bit warmer tonight, with most locations remaining in the mid to upper 60s.
1216 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (Today and tonight) Our much advertised pattern change has finally arrived as upper ridging finally breaks down, ushering in fall-like temperatures and widespread rain chances across the region. With widespread rain/clouds and a northeasterly breeze behind the cold front, temperatures may struggle to rise out of the 60s today across the northern half of the area, with 70s and a few 80s expected further south near the Red River.
High temperatures will top out around the low-mid 80s. The upper-level trough will continue to deepen and move southeast into the Ohio River Valley. Due to cloud coverage and warm air advection, low temperatures will be warmer than the previous night, with temperatures in the low-mid 60s. High PoP and low QPF stable, stratiform precip will continue to sweep through the region with the cold front. Behind the front and precipitation, a high pressure regime will build into the region. Tomorrow, high temperatures are expected to be in the low-mid 70s.
117 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Clouds in the northern TN Valley and SW VA have been slow to lift with the lowering sun angle and light/calm winds through the bounary layer. Heights will rise across our area today as brief ridging ahead of the next upper trough builds in.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) A relative low-level weakness is still in place along the Gulf Coast despite the reduction of troughing aloft. Broad troughing will advance eastward across the Midwest and Ohio Valley tomorrow which will be accompanied by a surface cold front.
A cold front will approach and pass through SE NM and the Permian Basin tonight and help to keep up shower and storm activity into Tuesday morning. Temperatures take a dip near or below normal with many in the low to mid 60s by Tuesday morning.
1244 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 High pressure still remains in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning. Temperatures as of 11 AM CDT are in the lower 80s and increasing clouds should keep temperatures from reaching 90 degrees. GNC A high pressure system will continue to bring pleasant and dry weather with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s through today. A cold front is expected move in late tonight bringing back rain chances tomorrow morning through the evening.
146 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2023 19Z analysis shows an upper ridge building over the region from the west.
119 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2023 An upper level ridge is set up over the region today keeping conditions dry and setting up a warming trend through tomorrow.
1210 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (Rest of Today) Current temps over the central TN Valley have rebounded into the upper 70s/near 80F for most spots from their earlier lows mainly in the lower/mid 60s.
1206 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 A stalled front will dissolve and be nudged east of the area today, followed by the arrival of a ridge of high pressure tonight. A cold front will push through the region Tuesday night, then Canadian high pressure will build into the region for the second half of the week. The focus for Tuesday turns to an approaching cold front over the Grt Lks.
241 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Scattered showers and storms will continue into this evening along a cold front, pushing out of the area by later Tuesday morning. Thereafter, cooler and drier weather will be in place through the end of the week and most of the weekend. Water vapor imagery depicts a large, positively tilted upper trough over the Midwest states early this afternoon. At the surface, a cold front is positioned from near Chicago southwestward toward Macomb. Cooler and drier weather will be seen through the end of the week with high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to 50s.
338 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected mainly in the afternoon and evening today and tomorrow (Tuesday) - General Thunderstorm risk both days, suggesting that while a few storms could be strong, the threat for severe storms is relatively low Forecast: Upper-level troughing has relented over the Southeast with quasi- zonal flow now in place.
1230 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 A stalled front will dissolve and be nudged east of the area today, followed by the arrival of a ridge of high pressure tonight. A cold front will push through the region Tuesday night, then Canadian high pressure will build into the region for the second half of the week. The focus for Tuesday turns to an approaching cold front over the Grt Lks.
136 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 A stalled front will dissolve and be nudged east of the area today, followed by the arrival of a ridge of high pressure tonight. A cold front will push through the region Tuesday night, then Canadian high pressure will build into the region for the second half of the week. The focus for Tuesday turns to an approaching cold front over the Grt Lks.
310 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Showers with a possible embedded thunderstorm or two this evening/tonight as 850 MB Theta-E ridge axis and modest instability (MUcapes <500 J/kg) works through Southeast Michigan, supported by upper level divergence/low-mid level fgen. Modest low level cold advection behind the cold front tomorrow, with just enough residual low level moisture and surface based capes to touch off a few lingering showers. 12z raobs indicated a mid level cold pool (negative lower 20s at 500 MB/negative single numbers at 700 MB)/positive tilted upper level trough over the Upper Mississippi River valley extending northeast through James Bay.
There's even been a few weak storms over the higher terrain. Mostly clear skies, moist boundary layer, and weak winds are expected to lead to areas of fog, mostly in the low lying areas to the north of Denver. For Tuesday, weak ridging in the westerly flow aloft will track across the region.
Cooler today with more substantial cooling through much of this week. Radar echoes are moving eastward, but the low-levels of the atmosphere remain very dry, so precipitation is struggling to reach the surface.
The mid-upper level ridge will continue to flatten out through the short- term period, providing a generally NW flow aloft. Expect coverage to be isolated as chances for precipitation remain on the lower side (20%).
PoPs lower significantly overnight into Tuesday as the frontal zone pulls away but a few isolated showers should linger as the upper trough and cold pool aloft arrive. Slightly negative LI/s over the lake could support a few tstms along the lakeshore or just offshore as the upper trough continues to amplify overhead.
There will probably be some on the north side of a developing Denver cyclone. There's even been a few weak storms over the higher terrain. Mostly clear skies, moist boundary layer, and weak winds are expected to lead to areas of fog, mostly in the low lying areas to the north of Denver. For Tuesday, weak ridging in the westerly flow aloft will track across the region.
08 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Tuesday) A relative low-level weakness is still in place along the Gulf Coast despite the reduction of troughing aloft. Broad troughing will advance eastward across the Midwest and Ohio Valley tomorrow which will be accompanied by a surface cold front.
743 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (Through Tuesday) A mid-level level ridge at the 500mb level centered over the Bahamas today, will retrograde westward towards Miami on Tuesday. An upper level trough and associated jet streak across the ARKLATEX region will provide some upper level forcing for ascent as divergence aloft will be prevalent across the region with the aforementioned trough axis forecast to be in place across the northern central Gulf Coast. Overall, expect more widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday, with high temperatures climbing into the low 90s, and morning lows forecast in the low 70s.
639 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Broad upper-level ridging will be the dominant feature for the short term. Temperatures across Deep South Texas are expected to reach the low 100s again Tuesday afternoon, and drop to the mid 70s overnight tonight and Tuesday night.
Expecting light northerly winds to assist in mixing and prevention of widespread fog; however, cannot rule out low lying and other favored areas seeing patchy fog due to low temperatures in the lower 50s and high relative humidity values after rainfall earlier today. As northerly winds pick up behind the departing low pressure, waves will build and create a swim risk for Lake Michigan beaches.
Low temps in the lower 70s anticipated tonight. Low temperatures will fall into the lower 70s inland and mid 70s on the coast, with high moisture and light winds, patchy inland fog is possible just before sunrise.
752 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 High pressure will gradually build in tonight, bringing a brief break to the unsettled weather into Tuesday.
931 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 A mid level trough will dig southeast into the Great Lakes through Tuesday night. This will push a cold front southeast across the region, bringing the threat for showers and a few thunderstorms.
614 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 High pressure will weaken across the Mid-South tonight as a cold front moves into the area late tonight into Tuesday. Rain showers are expected to linger into the afternoon with high pressure returning by Tuesday night.
Bands of high cirrus clouds will continue to fan the area ahead of the trough and cold front presently shifting southeast through the lower MO valley into the southern Plains.
656 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Upper level ridging will warm afternoon high temperatures back above normal for the next couple of days, with dry conditions expected through Tuesday morning.
642 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Message: - Hot and Dry Conditions Continue Early This Week A mid-level high pressure over northern Mexico will result in continued hot and dry conditions today and tonight.
The higher terrain along the Continental Divide has been most favored today, as orographics act on the "juicier" +40 degree dewpoints. Tuesday will be an active day as the trough begins to nudge in from the west, seeing PWATs increase to above normal area-wide by the end of the evening.
Geelhart Water vapor imagery depicts a large, positively tilted upper trough over the Midwest states early this afternoon. At the surface, a cold front is positioned from near Chicago southwestward toward Macomb. Cooler and drier weather will be seen through the end of the week with high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to 50s.
Aloft, a large trough over the Midwest will continue to gradually dig and pivot into the Ohio River Valley through Tuesday bringing a modest increase in moisture as southwest flow aloft returns. At the surface, a weak cold front associated with the trough will begin approaching the region from the northwest close to the end of the period, whilest a weak boundary continues to meander generally along and southeast of the I-65 corridor. As for temps, lows tonight are still forecast to range from generally the upper 60s inland, to the low 70s down to the coast, except at the immediate coast where mid 70s are forecast.
924 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Midevening GOES water vapor imagery shows an upper level longwave trough digging south through the upper Midwest. PWB High pressure will weaken across the Mid-South tonight as a cold front moves into the area late tonight into Tuesday. Rain showers are expected to linger into the afternoon with high pressure returning by Tuesday night.
806 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 A mid level trough will dig southeast into the Great Lakes through Tuesday night. This will push a cold front southeast across the region, bringing the threat for showers and a few thunderstorms.
Upstream, increased cloudiness and shower activity associated with an advancing mid/upper trough is pushing across the Ozarks and Red River Valley. /DL/ Tonight and Tuesday: An upper ridge axis will continue to bring mild temperatures and light winds for the evening. On Tuesday, an upper level trough located over the Great Lakes with an associated frontal boundary continues to move into the ArkLaMiss region throughout the day Tuesday.
515 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2023 19Z analysis shows an upper ridge building over the region from the west.
911 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 We'll have a brief visit from a ridge of high pressure overnight and for the first half of Tuesday. A cold front will push through the region Tuesday night and early Wed. Dry, pleasant weather will follow as Canadian high pressure builds into the region for the second half of the week and much of the weekend. The focus for Tuesday turns to an approaching cold front over the Grt Lks.
556 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2023 19Z analysis shows an upper ridge building over the region from the west.
622 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Scattered showers and storms will continue into this evening along a cold front, pushing out of the area by later Tuesday morning. Thereafter, cooler and drier weather will be in place through the end of the week and most of the weekend. Water vapor imagery depicts a large, positively tilted upper trough over the Midwest states early this afternoon. At the surface, a cold front is positioned from near Chicago southwestward toward Macomb. Cooler and drier weather will be seen through the end of the week with high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to 50s.
624 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Tonight and Tuesday: An upper ridge axis will continue to bring mild temperatures and light winds for the evening. On Tuesday, an upper level trough located over the Great Lakes with an associated frontal boundary continues to move into the ArkLaMiss region throughout the day Tuesday.
806 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 High pressure will gradually build in tonight, bringing a brief break to the unsettled weather into Tuesday.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms today along with continued cooler temperatures through the short term period. Currently, upper level ridge extends from the Great Basin north/northeast through central Saskatchewan, with an upper level trough over the Great Lakes region. For Tuesday, ridge axis moves overhead, with increasing return flow across the Dakotas.
(This evening through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected mainly in the afternoon and evening today and tomorrow (Tuesday) - General Thunderstorm risk both days, suggesting that while a few storms could be strong, the threat for severe storms is relatively low Forecast: Upper-level troughing has relented over the Southeast with quasi- zonal flow now in place.
545 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Aviation Section Updated Upper level ridging will warm afternoon high temperatures back above normal for the next couple of days, with dry conditions expected through Tuesday morning.
A deep mean layer ridge has gradually moved westward over the past 12 hours and is now centered over the Florida Keys and western Cuba.
645 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Upper level trough to the northeast and high pressure system to the southwest will give strong upper level westerly winds. High pressure system seems to remain stagnant while the upper level trough propagates to the east through tomorrow evening. A mid to upper level trough will develop over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico this afternoon. Cold front has moved into the northwest portions of the CWA bringing breezy northeasterly winds ranging from 10 to 20 mph. Following the cold front, temperatures tomorrow will be cooler with high temperatures in the lower 70s across the rolling plains and upper 60s across the South Plains with wide spread stratus. In addition, winds will veer to the east from the high pressure system sitting over Kansas.
Otherwise, overnight lows will drop into the low/mid 70s across the region with no updates needed at this time.
96 (This evening through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected mainly in the afternoon and evening today and tomorrow (Tuesday) - General Thunderstorm risk both days, suggesting that while a few storms could be strong, the threat for severe storms is relatively low Forecast: Upper-level troughing has relented over the Southeast with quasi- zonal flow now in place.
658 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday) A relative low-level weakness is still in place along the Gulf Coast despite the reduction of troughing aloft. Broad troughing will advance eastward across the Midwest and Ohio Valley tomorrow which will be accompanied by a surface cold front.
731 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 A stalled front will dissolve and be nudged east of the area today, followed by the arrival of a ridge of high pressure tonight. A cold front will push through the region Tuesday night, then Canadian high pressure will build into the region for the second half of the week. The focus for Tuesday turns to an approaching cold front over the Grt Lks.
1135 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Midevening GOES water vapor imagery shows an upper level longwave trough digging south through the upper Midwest. PWB High pressure will weaken across the Mid-South tonight as a cold front moves into the area late tonight into Tuesday. Rain showers are expected to linger into the afternoon with high pressure returning by Tuesday night.
1216 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Upper level trough to the northeast and high pressure system to the southwest will give strong upper level westerly winds. High pressure system seems to remain stagnant while the upper level trough propagates to the east through tomorrow evening. A mid to upper level trough will develop over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico this afternoon. Cold front has moved into the northwest portions of the CWA bringing breezy northeasterly winds ranging from 10 to 20 mph. Following the cold front, temperatures tomorrow will be cooler with high temperatures in the lower 70s across the rolling plains and upper 60s across the South Plains with wide spread stratus. In addition, winds will veer to the east from the high pressure system sitting over Kansas.
231 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2023 08z surface analysis had weak trough from central MT into south- central SD. Water vapour loop had upper level ridge building into the northern Plains.
Some dynamic forcing in the base of the broad trough over the west coast is helping to produce the elevated convection which hasn't been vigorous enough to produce any lightning so far.
1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Message: - Hot and Dry Conditions Continue Early This Week A mid-level high pressure over northern Mexico will result in continued hot and dry conditions today and tonight.
Precipitation chances increase Wednesday as a sharp cold front moves through the Northeast.
Highs will probably range from the upper 60s in places that received a lot of rain over the past few days, to the lower to mid 70s at Hays.
1255 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) A deepening H500 cyclone will progress southeastward across the Great Lakes through the period. Its corresponding trough, extending southwest toward the state will make similar progress southeast over the next day or two. At the sfc, a cold front to the west of the area will make its way across the state tonight into Tuesday morning. Behind the front, sfc ridging will expand south toward the state and cooler temperatures will be in place.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms today along with continued cooler temperatures through the short term period. Currently, upper level ridge extends from the Great Basin north/northeast through central Saskatchewan, with an upper level trough over the Great Lakes region. For Tuesday, ridge axis moves overhead, with increasing return flow across the Dakotas. Ridge is flattened on Wednesday as a mid level S/WV moving into the Pacific NW Tue night approaches the Northern Rockies during the day Wednesday. Increasing southerly return flow ahead of this feature on Wed will advect a warmer airmass into the local area, with highs Wednesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
An upper level ridge will be in place over the Rockies through tomorrow, shifting into the Plains by Wednesday. Winds then shift to a southerly direction tomorrow as lee troughing redevelops across eastern Colorado.
By Wednesday, the upper flow is forecasted to become more laminar with a trough beginning to move into the Rockies. The trough is then forecasted to move east and through the area from Thu-Sat. This will help keep temperatures cooler with highs generally forecasted to be in the 60's and 70's.
Ridging aloft will bring relatively tranquil conditions and mild temperatures to the forecast area today through Wednesday.
225 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2023 An upper ridge over Saskatchewan and eastern Montana will move to the east today. A somewhat unstable atmosphere and mid level moister with this trough may be enough to produce a few isolated showers tonight in the western zones. It will be a warm day ahead of the front with highs in the lower 80s in most areas.
A cold front associated with an upper trough deepening over the Great Lakes will approach the region this afternoon returning showers and a few storms to the region ahead of the front. Convection will continue tonight as the upper trough and the mentioned front crosses the forecast area. By Wednesday morning, precipitation will be largely over with the front progged to be east of the ridges. Cold advection behind the front will bring daytime highs down into the upper 60s, and this along with dewpoints in the lower 50s will yield a relatively comfortable day weather wise. Lake enhanced showers diminish by sunset as the main trough axis swings through, leading to clearing skies and diminishing winds overnight.
(Today and tonight) Yesterday's cold front continues to push further south into Texas, with a few showers lingering to its north across our area early this morning.
The ridge over the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys will gradually move towards the southwest, causing northeasterly winds in the island chain and surrounding waters. Towards the end of this week, rain and thunder chances are forecasted to increase as a weak cold front moves into northern Florida and possibly sinks over central Florida. Additionally, high pressure building into the area will cause winds to become east to southeast, which should drag high moisture content from the Caribbean and Atlantic waters into the region. The forecast for the next seven days shows that the high temperatures will hover around the low 90s, while the low temperatures will be in the lower 80s.