Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Spiral bands of light to moderate rain showers continue to spin from east to west around an upper low currently centered over southeastern South Dakota. As this low slowly drifts east and a little bit south, it will continue to fill and weaken through the afternoon, almost washing out in the mid to upper levels by tonight. NAEFS percentiles for surface pressure are completely maxed out at times (max of all models for this time of year) as this high crosses the state from northwest to southeast through the day on Sunday. This will mean plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to the mid 70s Sunday afternoon.
245 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023 A warm front is draped from central Indiana into central Iowa and into a weakening low pressure system now crossing the border from Nebraska to Iowa. Thinning clouds are allowing for temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s, and humidity levels are for the most part comfortable except near the warm front in central Illinois. Borchardt Quiet first half of the upcoming week, as High pressure over the southern CONUS dominates the upper level pattern.
843 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023 A cold front will drop to our south tonight. High pressure will build toward the area on Sunday.
Slowly but surely moisture is very gradually increasing across Arizona with an upper low extending down into the western part of the state. The other issue with this setup is DCAPE should be on the high side with strong outflow winds a good bet.
Low pressure will continue to weaken while the upper low pivots to the west, with shower coverage/intensity diminishing slowly through the rest of the today/tonight period. Otherwise, a fetch from high pressure to the northeast will help dry us out for Sunday, with little support in BUFKIT profiles for even shallow daytime cumulus.
625 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level low is centered across the Permian Basin and is forecast to slowly drift north overnight. In addition, a weak cold front remain draped across the region. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
938 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023 High pressure centered far off the North Carolina coast remains offshore tonight. A cold front will then drop through the area Sunday followed by some upper disturbances keeping it unsettled at times through at least mid week. Latest surface analysis continues to show broad high pressure well offshore, the backside of which extends into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, upper ridging over the Deep South puts the area in northwesterly flow, generally keeping a dry atmosphere aloft. Forecast should stay dry through this evening, with the upper ridge moving slowly eastward. Later tonight, a cold front drops down the eastern seaboard, nearing the northern periphery of the area by sunrise Sunday morning. Highs in the low-to-mid 80s.
Central Florida is now situated between two upper level features: high pressure across the Deep South and a weak low near Cuba. Therefore, temps will be slightly cooler tonight with less mixing taking place (mid 60s inland to low 70s coast). Other than the high cirrus, patchy ground fog may form where rain fell earlier today.
Scattered virga showers and thunderstorms continue across south-central Idaho this evening on the northern flank of of a westward moving low pressure system. The low will continue west across Nevada on Sunday reaching northwest Nevada early Sunday afternoon. Further north, thunderstorms will initiate off the higher terrain given the increased moisture but will likely be short- lived lacking instability and dynamic support. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tomorrow. An upper low over northern Nevada will continue to bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening mainly over southern Idaho.
The area of high pressure that keep most of the precipitation all around us today is still in place right over the area.
945 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023 A cold front pushes south of the local area overnight.
951 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023 High pressure will start to build into the area tonight and persist through the early part of the week.
Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures and continued rain showers/rumbles of thunder expected through the rest of the weekend.
746 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023 High pressure will start to build into the area tonight and persist through the early part of the week.
715 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions and seasonable temperatures for the remainder of the weekend and into the upcoming week. Rain associated with a trough passage has now shifted south of the forecast area and the sun has managed to break through much of the forecast area. High pressure and nwly flow aloft should be dominant on Mon in the wake of the Sun trough. A deep upper-level trough over ern Canada and wrn ridging will maintain general nwly flow aloft in the Mid-Atlantic region to start the week. A pattern shift is expected mid-late week as a low digs into the nrn Rockies and shifts the midwestern ridge ewd.
1058 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions and seasonable temperatures for the remainder of the weekend and into the upcoming week. Rain associated with a trough passage has now shifted south of the forecast area and the sun has managed to break through much of the forecast area. High pressure and nwly flow aloft should be dominant on Mon in the wake of the Sun trough. A deep upper-level trough over ern Canada and wrn ridging will maintain general nwly flow aloft in the Mid-Atlantic region to start the week. A pattern shift is expected mid-late week as a low digs into the nrn Rockies and shifts the midwestern ridge ewd. Some clearing and moisture pooling up against the ridges has introduced instances of locally dense fog for MGW and LBE.
703 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023 High pressure strengthening in northern Ontario sets up dry and cooler NE surface flow across the central Great Lakes tonight through Sunday. Cooler profile entrenched throughout Sunday, conditions still defined by a modestly gusty northeast wind as high pressure to the north holds beneath existing mid level northwest flow.
Lows are forecast to be in the low to upper 40s and upper 30s in the Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains, however, it is possible to get some locally lower temperatures especially in higher terrain areas with an environment conducive to decent radiational cooling. Cooler temperatures are expected for Mother's Day tomorrow, though mostly clear skies will make it a beautiful Spring day. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 60s with pockets of upper 60s in the lower Hudson Valley and upper 50s at higher elevations.
650 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023 A warm front is draped from central Indiana into central Iowa and into a weakening low pressure system now crossing the border from Nebraska to Iowa. Thinning clouds are allowing for temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s, and humidity levels are for the most part comfortable except near the warm front in central Illinois. Borchardt Quiet first half of the upcoming week, as High pressure over the southern CONUS dominates the upper level pattern.
739 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023 High pressure centered far off the North Carolina coast remains offshore tonight. A cold front will then drop through the area Sunday followed by some upper disturbances keeping it unsettled at times through at least mid week. Latest surface analysis continues to show broad high pressure well offshore, the backside of which extends into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, upper ridging over the Deep South puts the area in northwesterly flow, generally keeping a dry atmosphere aloft. Forecast should stay dry through this evening, with the upper ridge moving slowly eastward. Later tonight, a cold front drops down the eastern seaboard, nearing the northern periphery of the area by sunrise Sunday morning. Highs in the low-to-mid 80s.
Upper low which brought the widespread heavy rain has shifted to far eastern SD/western MN and is filling in. Upper level high pressure is over Pacific NW while another low over the Great Basin is bringing more moisture northward along the eastern edge of the Rockies. The forecast area will dry out briefly before showers and thunderstorms return Tue aftn-Thur mrng as the next system approaches with a lee trof over eastern MT-WY serves as an additional lifting mechanism. Localized LIFR conditions are likely over the higher terrain and adjacent plains.
Low pressure area currently located over eastern Nevada/western Utah will retrograde westward towards northern California. The low will help to bring a cooling trend although temperatures will remain above normal. For now have less than 10 percent chances for that area but as the low moves towards us that could change. Models do seem to favor the northern mountains for activity Sunday evening as the center of the low drifts northward.
It also probably had a hand in developing weak troughing showing up at 700 and 850 mb. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridge will weaken through the overnight period. With that said, a few showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as there is decent CAPE and the lower level inhibition should dull through the night. A weakening ridge to our north will result in mostly easterly breezes continuing to relax through the overnight period.
611 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023 Low pressure will continue to weaken while the upper low pivots to the west, with shower coverage/intensity diminishing slowly through the rest of the today/tonight period. Otherwise, a fetch from high pressure to the northeast will help dry us out for Sunday, with little support in BUFKIT profiles for even shallow daytime cumulus.
645 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023 Summary: A band of rain showers extending from the Brainerd Lake Region into southern Pine Barrens will persist into the early evening hours before a strong high pressure forces the rain to retreat south.
400 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes today offering drier conditions.
431 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will support dry weather through at least Monday with cooler temperatures than recent days.
126 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions and seasonable temperatures through the first half of the week. High pressure building in from the north and northwesterly flow aloft will result in dry conditions and seasonable temperatures through Monday. A deep upper-level trough over ern Canada and wrn ridging will maintain general nwly flow aloft in the Mid-Atlantic region to start the week. A pattern shift is expected mid-late week as a low digs into the nrn Rockies and shifts the midwestern ridge ewd. The general pattern over the rest of the TAF period will be defined by VFR under high pressure with just a few passing high clouds.
Moisture convergence along a frontal boundary/trough in northeast Kansas into central Missouri later this afternoon shifts westward with time tonight. Cooler temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s are expected Monday behind the cold front.
- A few chances for frost through midweek Clearing skies move into the northern zones this evening and usher in a cooler and drier airmass.
300 AM MDT Sun May 14 2023 Area of light rain showers continues to move north out of southwest Kansas, associated with a weak upper level trough.
1212 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions and seasonable temperatures through the first half of the week. High pressure building in from the north and northwesterly flow aloft will result in dry conditions and seasonable temperatures through Monday. A deep upper-level trough over ern Canada and wrn ridging will maintain general nwly flow aloft in the Mid-Atlantic region to start the week. A pattern shift is expected mid-late week as a low digs into the nrn Rockies and shifts the midwestern ridge ewd. Some clearing and moisture pooling up against the ridges has introduced instances of locally dense fog for MGW and LBE.
-Cooler weather moves in Monday. Forecast Discussion: This afternoon, mid-level analysis showed two areas of low pressure in the central US - one over northeastern Nebraska and one over western Texas. The probability of precipitation will begin to increase from south to north tonight and tomorrow morning as the low over Texas moves northward. Weak PVA and associated ascent is noted in models as the low fills over the High Plains.
By daybreak, we expect lows to range from the mid 40s over the northern tier, to the low-mid 50s for areas near and south of US-22/I-78. Location of clouds/rain resulting in an upside down day for temps with warmer/above normal readings in the norther and cooler/below normal temps across the southern tier. Noticeably cooler across the northern tier with max -10F colder vs.
Convection continues to dwindle this evening across the High Country, though 20-30% chances for showers will remain in the forecast across the western Coconino and Kaibab Plateaus. A broad upper low across the Great Basin will continue to encourage southerly flow. Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop across the high terrain early this afternoon and is expected to continue into the early evening hours, then activity should begin to diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Training showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the higher elevations near the AZ/NM border even with the storm motion. Latest hi-res CAM guidance show storms initially forming over the higher terrain (Mogollon Rim, Kaibab Plateau, Chuska Mountains) and then gradually progressing northward through the day.
Upper ridging will continue to prevail across the area today through tonight. Highs today will climb into the low 90s for most of the area. This will result in hot and humid conditions yet again on Monday with temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s. High pressure will lead to rather subsident conditions and may tend to suppress cloud cover and inhibit convection, however given sufficient moisture (1.
405 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 Scattered showers are likely today with cooler conditions.
327 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023 Main forecast highlight in the short term period will be warmer temperatures and dry conditions. Currently, weak flow aloft with an upper level high over southern Alberta, low over the Intermountain West, and a weakening low over the Upper Midwest.
The main upper level trough that has aided in shower development will move just north of the region today with a weak short wave to reluctantly replace it. Slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s for most with portions of Big Bend reaching the upper 80s to low 90s.
High pressure stays situated in place to our south, keeping us on the northern edge of the high. Isolated to scattered convection is still possible, with the highest chances in the afternoon hours. The area of high pressure keeps us in this pattern through the short term period, before it looks to break down early next work week due to influence from a trough over the northeast.
106 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level low is centered across the Permian Basin and is forecast to slowly drift north overnight. In addition, a weak cold front remain draped across the region. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
75 inches will advect northward across a larger area of southern and portions of central Kansas today/tonight in concert with an upper trof moving across the high Plains. Relatively weak flow/deep layer shear and modest instability along with the higher PWAT values will lend to greater rainfall efficiency for pockets of heavy rainfall and only marginal wind/hail risk. The higher PWAT airmass will be shunted eastward on Monday, mainly east of the turnpike.
Key Messages: - Chance of rain through Monday with cooler than normal temperatures.
144 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through Monday, which will bring dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.
Warmer than normal temperatures are expected away from the coast Sunday through much of the coming week. Along the coast, cooler temperatures are likely to persist with night through morning low clouds and fog. The layer may deepen some late tonight as a weak upper low drifts from the UT/NV border toward northern California. Both of these factors could push the low clouds inland to some of the coastal valleys. Sunday looks to provide a cooldown of about 10 to 12 degrees away from the coast, and especially over the interior valleys where highs will be in the low 80s.
1253 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023 A warm front is draped from central Indiana into central Iowa and into a weakening low pressure system now crossing the border from Nebraska to Iowa.
1231 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023 Summary: A band of rain showers extending from the Brainerd Lake Region into southern Pine Barrens will persist into the early evening hours before a strong high pressure forces the rain to retreat south. Strong thermal ridging will enter Monday allowing surface temps to climb the upper 70s and 80s. The blocking pattern out west begins to breaks down Monday night as the pattern moves off the NW coast. In it's place upper level ridging will hold over the desert southwest as an upper level low moves south of the Hudson Bay.
952 PM MDT Sat May 13 2023 The upper level low to the southeast will continue its slow northeastward progression the remainder of today as light rain showers, mainly on eastern slopes continue through the afternoon and evening hours.
343 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 (Today through Monday) Synoptic ridging remains in place across the Southeastern CONUS, with the ridge axis just west of the forecast area. The likely cause of the decreasing trend for the second day in a row is possibly due to an abundant amount of moisture trapped underneath the ridge (~ 1. Low-res models are tending to produce convection and underestimating the ridge's influence to suppress it, whereas high-res, convective allowing models are handling the forecast more accurately within the near- term forecast window. By Monday, A piece of a continental high pressure system around the Great Lakes region will break off and set up over the North Carolina coastline.
Will remain under an upper level high today which will keep warm conditions in place.
1216 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through Monday, which will bring dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.
A warm front brings a chance of showers on Sunday, especially in the afternoon hours. At least low convective chances for Sunday, mainly late afternoon/evening as east-west trough axis emanating from Canadian Maritime vortex drops south through Great Lakes. Vertical motion, at least in mid levels, enhanced by right rear quadrant of upper level jet pressing south through the Lower Great Lakes. Final scour of mid level moisture Sunday night with passage of aforementioned trough.
(Today through Monday) After a uneventful day across the area, look for better coverage during the afternoon across the area as a weak cold front tries to work into the northeast.
A Rex block is currently set up over the region, with a ridge parked over Mississippi and the northern Gulf of Mexico, and a weak upper level low positioned just to the north of the western tip of Cuba. At the surface, high pressure centered in the central North Atlantic has been receding eastward overnight, allowing for a quick decrease in winds. The aforementioned blocking pattern will remain in place through Monday. Forecast soundings suggest near normal moisture will remain in place through Monday night as the upper low traverses eastward across the Florida Keys. Have retained slight chance thunder in the forecast as the upper low remains in the vicinity. Thereafter, the ridge across the Gulf will weaken and the upper-low will shift to the east, leaving the Florida Keys with a very benign, albeit hot, week of weather.
Cooler temperatures will move back into the area Monday.
On the large scale, an elongated mid-level trough lies to to the west over Northwest Mexico.
The rain will be going nowhere for a while yet as the upper low stalls near FSD for much of the morning before shearing out.
- Cooler temperatures forecast for today and tomorrow. Cloudy skies and cold air advection from the north will lead to much cooler temperatures today. Due to the speed of the low, rain chances will continue into Monday. Highs on Monday are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s for the entire forecast area.
Areas of low clouds also scattered out by midday over most of the FA, allowing mid aftn temps to warm into the lower and mid 80s. Widely scattered convection was noted acrs the N half of the area this aftn, along the periphery of a weak upper lvl ridge axis aligned NW to SE acrs the Mid-South. Kept a dry fcst going thru the overnight hrs, with lows ranging fm the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Highs Sun aftn wl range fm the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
913 PM PDT Sat May 13 2023 High pressure will bring sunny and warm weather to the Inland Northwest this weekend, with gusty east winds both days.
Warm again on Sunday, with cooler temperatures back into the area Monday.
309 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023 If you use your imagination there is still the remnants of the upper low hanging around the area providing some forcing. Highs will range from the upper 50s along Hwy 20 to the lower 70s in our far southern counties. May need the furnace on tonight as lows bottom out in the mid 40s north to the lower 50s south. 2) Strong cold front arrives late in the week. Monday: Low confidence in rain chances as an upper level trough sweeps through the area, shoving the frontal boundary even further to our south.
(Today thru Monday) Our area will remain in a moist, deep layer southerly flow on the western side of a southeast CONUS ridge thru Monday.
111 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 Dry weather will continue today for Mother's Day, with a mostly sunny sky and temperatures a little cooler than the last few days.
(Today through Monday Night ) An upper ridge continues to build over the central and southeast U. An upper low continues over the western U. The upper ridge is expected to remain in place through Monday. This low is expected to sink south today and Monday and bring a cold front toward Arkanas. High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s and in the lower 80s to lower 90s Monday. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows Monday night will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
153 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will start to build into the area tonight and persist through the early part of the week.
Moisture convergence along a frontal boundary/trough in northeast Kansas into central Missouri later this afternoon shifts westward with time tonight. Monday a mid level trough will move across the central Plains keeping a chance for showers and a few storms before exiting Monday night with precipitation ending from west to east. Cooler temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s are expected Monday behind the cold front.
Upper ridge over Alabama and Mississippi with northwest flow aloft. This ridge will shift west today but only slightly, keeping northwesterly upper flow across the forecast area. Subsidence will weaken as we move into the late morning, at the same time a cold front to our north shifts south. Highs in the northern Midlands in the lower to mid 80s thanks to the front, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees further south.
Cooler and drier conditions are expected going into the new week. The aforementioned low will approach southwest IL this afternoon as it becomes even more washed out under upper ridging.