Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1101 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 (Tonight) At 01Z, a pre-frontal trough has moved east into southeast TN And GA. This trend may continue until the cold front now just entering northwest AL and middle TN pushes through late tonight.
Then for Wednesday high temps will reach the low to mid 40's with mostly cloudy conditions and weak nw flow caa.
214 AM EST Tue Dec 26 2023 A complex low pressure system will impact eastern NC through Wednesday.
1253 AM EST Tue Dec 26 2023 Rain will move in this evening in the moist southerly flow ahead of low pressure. The threat for rain will persist Tuesday and Wednesday as the low advances slowly east.
The GFS and NAM are the furthest north and east with the low which keeps much of the snow showers north and east of the Kansas Turnpike Tuesday afternoon. Below normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday with highs in the 30s for much of the region outside of southeast Kansas where highs in the low 40s will be possible. Overnight lows will be near normal with temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
1055 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Added some sky across our south and a few areas of freezing fog. Air temps are showing freezing already in Magnolia and DeQueen this hour and both with patchy fog already being near or at saturation. So we added some freezing fog areas along and east of I-49.
As of 240 AM Tuesday: A strong, closed off upper low continues to churn across the Central Plains. Coupled with a dominate SE 850mb LLJ, strong isentropic ascent concentrates across the Blue Ridge Escarpment tonight. Another 1-3 inches of rain is likely now through early Wednesday morning, with higher local amounts along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. With the added moisture in the lower levels, temperatures will feel more like spring than winter.
1045 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 (This evening through Tuesday night) In the short term, all eyes remain on the progression of the upper low to our northeast as it slowly churns northeastward.
540 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 (Today) The cold front has now reached the I-65 corridor this early Tue morning, as sfc flow along/behind the front veers to the NW. Otherwise, high pressure out of the mid/southern Plains will begin to build into much of the region in the wake of the frontal passage later today. This should begin to usher slightly cooler/drier air into the mid TN Valley, as afternoon highs trend more in the mid/upper 50s. With the upper low lagging behind over the mid Plains, cloud cover may be slow to clear for at least part of the day.
359 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 - Freezing Rain / Ice Storm event ongoing across parts of eastern ND today. Area of freezing rain and rain continues to move from east to west across the area.
A weak warm front will cross northern Utah today, bringing increasing clouds.
Deep midwest low pressure bringing a moist and warm southwesterly flow over the area will produce high temps today nearly 15 degrees above normal.
516 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 (Today through Wednesday) An upper level low pressure system to the north will continue to advance into the Midwest through Wednesday. A couple of those cooler drainage valleys could again fall to around the freezing mark.
Stratus will linger for this morning before enough drier air can move into the W in the lower levels and clouds decrease some. A large upper low is currently over the Plains and will slowly nudge its way toward the Mid MS River Valley through the short term. Some lower dew points will work their way into C AL today into Wed, but the colder air will take a little longer to spread across the area with cooler lows but somewhat milder highs through Wed.
211 AM MST Tue Dec 26 2023 Upper low centered near Kansas City today will meander eastward across Missouri the next couple of days.
A ridge pattern will continue to build along the California coast and gradually move inland. There is a potential for cooler and unsettled weather to return around the New Year. A ridge has built up over the California coast, and this pressure system will begin to move more inland during the upcoming days. Around the New Year, model guidance is hinting at a low pressure system sweeping down the West Coast. This system will be fighting the strengthening ridge over portions of the Southwest, so there is potential for this pattern to be broken down before it fully enters Arizona. If this disturbance holds together, it will likely bring cooler temperatures, increased southerly winds and maybe some precipitation.
the upper low will drift southeast as the main lobe of vorticity swings southeast toward the area.
Conditions remain dry today as high pressure hangs around in the area with conditions anticipated to shift early morning Wednesday as an upper level low moves into the Pacific NW. The low continues to have a more northward track, so the majority of the precipitation will be primarily north of I-80.
The upper low will continue to move east on Wednesday with very light snow and snow flurries possible (15 to 30 percent chance). The upper low will be near St.
225 AM MST Tue Dec 26 2023 Eastern Montana will see high clouds today on the back side of a large upper low that is bringing a winter storm of freezing rain and snow to the Dakotas. Upper ridge will be over Montana the next several days as a slow moving upper low in the Central Plains today will drift slowly east across the Midwest this week.
645 AM EST Tue Dec 26 2023 (Today and tonight) Through the near term a massive upper low will keep meandering around the central plains.
(Today through Wednesday Night) Dry conditions are expected across the state today with an increase in srly winds, especially across northern AR closer to an approaching sfc cyclone.
The synoptic part of this system will remain in place well to the north of our area through Wed while more strong winds drop to the back side of the current upper level trough. There is a possibility that this air could be enough to cause some areas to drop to freezing by Wed night but mainly over the northern most tier of counties.
Across ncntl Nebraska, just a Winter Weather advisory is in place today and tonight for light winds, 1 to 2 inches of snow and areas of freezing rain this morning. The low should continue moving south into ncntl KS by around noon today followed by a very slow eastward motion to near Topeka by 00z this evening. Across ncntl Nebraska, just a Winter Weather advisory is in place for light winds, 1 to 2 inches of snow and areas of freezing rain this morning. Upper level ridging across the nrn Rockies will follow in the wake of the Great Plains cyclone.
532 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 - Winter Weather Advisory in effect through Wednesday morning for freezing rain.
At the surface, high pressure will continue to spread across the area today. A modest mid-level trough attached to the Plains low will swing over South Texas and will bring a weak cold front/reinforcing surge of high pressure into the CWA on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday are expected to reach the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
417 AM MST Tue Dec 26 2023 Upper low centered near Kansas City today will meander eastward across Missouri the next couple of days.
- A few record high temperatures are possible this morning before cooler air arrives. and Wednesday An upper low over the Central Plains will remain nearly stationary today, and then drift slowly to the southeast Wednesday. The left exit region of a 100+ knot jet at 300mb will produce upward vertical motion across Wisconsin as it rotates around the upper low, assisting in the formation of an area of rain that will move north across the area this morning. There could be one or two record high temperatures this morning before the cooler air arrives, but nothing like the record highs established Christmas Day. Some clearing is expected Wednesday as some drier air rotates around the upper low.
544 AM EST Tue Dec 26 2023 Cooler air will spread over the area today behind an occluded front.
459 AM EST Tue Dec 26 2023 Cooler air will spread over the area today behind an occluded front.
Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows a very large vertically stacked mid/upper level low that is stationary across the central plains.
Our colleagues to the east are not as fortunate though as a big bowling ball, AKA an upper level low continues to spin over the Central Plains States. Once the low moves eastward later tonight, the weather looks rather benign for the rest of the calendar year. Otherwise, ridging will dominate the weather for the next seven days or so, with little chance of precipitation. A retrograding strong low pressure system across Nebraska will push FL060 cigs into eastern parts of the region.
513 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night) Dry conditions are expected across the state today with an increase in srly winds, especially across northern AR closer to an approaching sfc cyclone.
519 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 (Today) The upper low centered on the Kansas/Nebraska border this morning will continue to influence the weather across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today. Dew point depressions remain relatively high this far south, with satellite derived soundings showing that this extends through much of the low levels. Forecast soundings indicate some modest moistening through the day as the vort max approaches, supporting the low chance of measurable precipitation, especially by the afternoon.
634 AM EST Tue Dec 26 2023 Periods of rain will continue through the next several days with a upper low slowly moving through the region.
927 AM EST Tue Dec 26 2023 While high level cirrus over the area is obstructing a clear view of some of the low clouds and fog on recent satellite imagery, area webcams and a variety of sites continue to indicate limited visibility due to fog over the Gulf waters and over land.
507 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 (Today and tonight) A deep upper level low currently located over Kansas City will only make small movements eastward through Wednesday morning.
Breezy southwesterly winds are expected this afternoon ahead of an incoming cold front. The cold front will push through the region this evening, leaving behind slightly cooler temperatures for tomorrow afternoon. Highs will be in the 50s but with southerly winds between 10-20 mph, it'll likely feel a bit cooler than the actual temperature. A reinforcing shot of cool air will arrive this evening with tonight's temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 30s.
Temperatures are generally in the lower 70s at this early morning hour. This will pivot a series of troughs and associated fronts through the Flroida Peninsula. The first, a weak cold front, will push through the island chain today, with little sensible changes expected in its wake. A longwave trough currently planted across the Midwest will slowly trek eastward over 24-48 hours.
Otherwise, a cool and dry weather pattern is in store for the forecast area as a powerful closed low continues spinning over the upper midwest and helps to send continental polar air into our region.
632 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 - Freezing Rain / Ice Storm event ongoing across parts of eastern ND today. Otherwise rain and freezing rain to continue. Area of freezing rain and rain continues to move from east to west across the area.
Temps are expected to trend cooler through the end of this week and into the weekend, but will remain about 5-10 degrees warmer then normal for late December. and Wednesday An upper low over the Central Plains will remain nearly stationary today, and then drift slowly to the southeast Wednesday. The left exit region of a 100+ knot jet at 300mb will produce upward vertical motion across Wisconsin as it rotates around the upper low, assisting in the formation of an area of rain that will move north across the area this morning. There could be one or two record high temperatures this morning before the cooler air arrives, but nothing like the record highs established Christmas Day. Some clearing is expected Wednesday as some drier air rotates around the upper low.
930 AM EST Tue Dec 26 2023 While high level cirrus over the area is obstructing a clear view of some of the low clouds and fog on recent satellite imagery, area webcams and a variety of sites continue to indicate limited visibility due to fog over the Gulf waters and over land.
435 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 - Winter Weather Advisory in effect through Wednesday morning for freezing rain.
(Today and tonight) Through the near term a massive upper low will keep meandering around the central plains.
A ridge of high pressure building over the area will provide dry and quiet weather for much of the week.
Winds will become breezy out of the south to southwest this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, with wind speeds increasing to 10 to 20 mph. Winds will become westerly this evening but will eventually shift out of the northwest with the arrival of the cold front late tonight into Wednesday morning.
1139 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 - Winter Weather Advisory in effect through Wednesday morning for freezing rain.
1259 PM EST Tue Dec 26 2023 Rain continues to be over the area through tonight, with activity diminishing early Wednesday morning as cold front pushes through the region. Temperatures will remain above normal into mid- week, but cooler conditions are expected late this week and over the upcoming weekend following the passage of a cold front. A low pressure system is slowly moving over the region with high pressure ridging into the Carolinas. Temperatures will remain stagnant through the near term, generally in the low 60s. We may break into the upper 50s early Wednesday morning after a cold front pushes through. A closed upper level low pressure system will slowly meander eastward during the latter half of this week.
(This evening through Wednesday) The broad 500mb low/trough across the central United States this afternoon will move slowly eastward tonight into Wednesday. Temperatures will fall to near or below freezing tonight across most of the CWA by Wednesday morning. A very weak cold front will move through the area by Wednesday afternoon.
(Tonight) Near vertically stacked low pressure over northern KS will move slowly east toward the KC area tonight, as a strong lobe of vorticity wraps around its back and eventually southern side. Lacy (Wednesday through Tuesday) The low pressure system is expected to shift east/southeast into the Ozarks of MO on Wednesday.
The main forecast update this morning was to ensure that freezing drizzle remains in the forecast through much of the afternoon west of the Tri- Cities area. Models indicating much drier air at 700mb and upwards and periods of freezing rain/drizzle in the observations adds to the confidence in this persisting through at least mid-afternoon, beyond which chances should diminish along with precipitation chances. The upper low will continue to move east on Wednesday with very light snow and snow flurries possible (15 to 30 percent chance). The upper low will be near St.
NBM temperatures for Wednesday were trending warmer than expected therefore, highs were lowered a couple degrees.
This will bring a weak cold front/reinforcing surge of cold air through Deep South Texas on Wednesday. Temperatures tonight will fall into the mid 40s across the Ranchlands to upper 50s in the lower Valley, while temperatures will be a bit warmer on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s. Cooler air filters in for Wednesday night thanks to CAA with overnight temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s for much of the region.
1114 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 (The rest of today ) An upper level low centered near Kansas City is slowly drifting southeast. Mid level moisture is wrapping around this low into northeast OK this morning, leading to widespread cloud cover and a few flurries near the OK/KS border in spots.
Patchy slick spots in freezing drizzle are expected in central SD. - Potential for light snow and/or freezing drizzle continues into Wednesday from south central South Dakota to southwest Minnesota. A walk through the soundings over the next 24 hours indicates a general lack of saturation within the dendritic layer but occasionally fairly deep saturation below, which supports mainly light freezing drizzle, especially west of I-29.
The area may still not be done with snow as the column of air remains fairly saturated from the moisture the low pulled in. Temperature should generally be in the low 30's, but could reach the mid 30's be the afternoon hours.
1025 AM MST Tue Dec 26 2023 Upper low centered near Kansas City today will meander eastward across Missouri the next couple of days.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Upper low centered to our northeast continues to dominate our weather pattern in the short term. Wednesday, available mid-level moisture begins to reduce as the upper low departs to the east ever so slowly.
Large upper low is currently situated over far southeast Nebraska/Northeast KS. At the surface, low is positioned under the upper low over northeast KS. Light snow showers continue to pin-wheel around the upper low across most of Kansas and this will continue into the evening hours, especially across eastern KS. By 00z Thu the upper low is expected to be situated over central MO. By Fri morning, the upper low will be approaching the Tennessee Valley with north/northwest flow over the Plains.
A ridge pattern will continue to build along the California coast and gradually move inland. There is a potential for cooler and unsettled weather to return around the New Year. High pressure builds into the southwest from the Pacific, resulting in warming temperatures this afternoon mainly from the Mogollon Rim and southward. Mainly light northwest through northeast winds are expected today, although across the higher terrain (San Francisco Peaks, White Mountains, Bradshaw Mountains and the Chuska Mountains) locally gustier winds around 35-45 mph will be possible.
(The rest of today ) An upper level low centered near Kansas City is slowly drifting southeast. Mid level moisture is wrapping around this low into northeast OK this morning, leading to widespread cloud cover and a few flurries near the OK/KS border in spots.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: Eastern Montana will see high clouds today on the back side of a large upper low that is bringing a winter storm of freezing rain and snow to the Dakotas. Upper ridge will be over Montana the next several days as a slow moving upper low in the Central Plains today will drift slowly east across the Midwest this week.
Lows tonight will drop into the lower 30s with light winds across the area.
This is due to a weak, dry cold front attendant to a slow-moving trough over the Central Great Plains that will gradually proceed towards the Mid- South by the end of the week. As it does so, it will reinforce seasonably cool temperatures (or slightly cooler than normal) by tomorrow night, with temperature minimums back down to the upper 20s/lower 30s. Frontal passage through the day tomorrow will produce a range of temperature maximums (from the upper 40s north of I-30 to the lower 60s in Central Louisiana).
As the surface warms and upper low approaches from the west, steepening low level lapse rates are expected to result in the intensification of snow showers across the region.
1227 PM EST Tue Dec 26 2023 Cooler air will spread over the area today behind an occluded front.
Did adjust highs down a degree or two in these areas with highs topping out in the upper 50s in the locations above, and generally in the low to mid 60s elsewhere. Expect lows in the 30s to around 40 degrees tonight with a few locations expected to see freezing conditions once again.
Our colleagues to the east are not as fortunate though as a big bowling ball, AKA an upper level low continues to spin over the Central Plains States. Once the low moves eastward later tonight, the weather looks rather benign for the rest of the calendar year. Otherwise, ridging will dominate the weather for the next seven days or so, with little chance of precipitation.
The snow will end by then and temperatures are expected to rise above freezing this afternoon.
1118 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 (Today and tonight) A deep upper level low currently located over Kansas City will only make small movements eastward through Wednesday morning.
125 AM MST Tue Dec 26 2023 -A powerful winter storm will continue to bring snow, wind, and some freezing rain to the region through much of today. Dry slot has migrated into central SD, offering a temporary end to snow with a switch to freezing rain/drizzle. WAA aloft combined with periods of dry slotting will support some freezing rain/drizzle across much of western SD as well today, esp across Ziebach and Perkins Counties. Waning winds through the day coupled with potential freezing rain will eventually bring an end to blizzard conds and much of the current blizzard warning could likely be dropped later today. After Wed, things will dry out and warm up for the second half of the week as the western NOAM ridge shifts east and Pac flow spreads into the region.
330 PM EST Tue Dec 26 2023 A complex low pressure system will impact eastern NC through Wednesday.
High pressure shifts quickly east on Wednesday ahead of the next approaching cold front. This provides for a brief warm up in temperatures with highs in the lower to middle 60s. This warm up will be brief as a strong cold front passes across the forecast area late Wednesday night.
Surface analysis shows a cold front just west of the region near Crossville with northwesterly winds in Middle TN. Southeasterly winds will stay elevated this afternoon in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee and SW Virginia mtns. Gusts will stay below advisory criteria (40 mph) and the High Wind Warning was dropped this morning. Deep midwest low pressure bringing a moist and warm southwesterly flow over the area will produce high temps today nearly 15 degrees above normal.
HRRR model trends show the low clouds thinning out from southwest to northeast through parts of the CWA later tonight. - Small risk for freezing drizzle later Wednesday night The Namnest was showing a short period of freezing drizzle later Wednesday night. Forecast soundings show unsaturated conditions above the -2 deg C level 07z in the GRR area with saturated near freezing conditions below. PTYPE algorithm for this model show patches of freezing drizzle around. Even the SPC HREF is not showing any freezing rain. Our low temperatures are forecast to drop into the 33 to 37 degree range so for now we will not feature any freezing rain in the forecast.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Cool and quiet weather will remain for all of the area through Wednesday as some high pressure builds into the area. A cold front will be passing through at the same time bringing another dose of colder air.
Low pressure centered over the central Mississippi River valley will drive our next flare-up of activity from the Gulf of Mexico across Florida late Wednesday.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) A low pressure system across the central part of the country will be departing to the east, with dry northwesterly flow in its wake resulting in clear conditions. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, mostly clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop near or below freezing for most of the forecast area.
pdf Low pressure system will move east off the coast this morning, then track to the east northeast Tonight.
1247 PM EST Tue Dec 26 2023 While high level cirrus over the area is obstructing a clear view of some of the low clouds and fog on recent satellite imagery, area webcams and a variety of sites continue to indicate limited visibility due to fog over the Gulf waters and over land.
As high pressure filters in, dry weather will continue through the remainder of today as temperatures rise into the mid 50s to low 60s.