Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A well defined low pressure circulation currently over southeast Washington will continue to dig to the southeast into northern Utah overnight tonight. Snow levels in these areas will lower to around 4500 feet, supporting accumulating snowfall into the higher valleys and mountain passes. Current model guidance shows a 60 to 80 percent chance of at least 1 to 2 inches of snow over the higher mountain passes such as MacDonald Pass, Homestake Pass, Lost Trail Pass and Gilmore Summit in Lemhi County. Once the low pressure system exits the region on Tuesday, the overall trend will be towards warming and drying conditions across all of western Montana and north central Idaho into the weekend.
301 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 High pressure will move across the region tonight. A weak cold front will move southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night.
123 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 A broad upper level trough of low pressure centered over the Great Lakes will be the dominant weather feature across the Northeast through much of the week.
255 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 Short lived break in the clouds early this morning allowed temperatures to drop below freezing across much of southeast Michigan. With the 500 MB elongated trough/low encompassing the entire great Lakes region early this week, the cold air will be slow to modify as the center of the 500 MB hovers along the Ontario/Quebec border during the mid week period.
Clouds will decrease throughout the day with sunshine becoming more prominent area-wide by the afternoon, but temperatures will be seasonably cool due to a large area of high pressure moving east over the Ohio Valley which is providing northeasterly surface winds across Central Alabama. There will be a mix of sun with some high clouds tomorrow, but we'll have one more day stabilized by the region of high pressure over the Ohio Valley with westerly flow aloft. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer, but still pleasant with highs ranging from the upper 60s north to near 80 southeast.
(Through Tonight) Showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms will move across the area this afternoon and evening, with the highest chance for a storms being south of I-10.
High pressure at the surface, currently centered over the Ohio River Valley, will continue to slowly slide to the east. Quiet weather will overall remain the norm through the forecast period, but conditions will be a touch warmer.
For the rest of us, it will be a rather quiet night with light winds and warmer temperatures compared to last night. A bit better winds, higher dewpoints, and increasing high cloud cover will prevent us from dropping below freezing again. Kimble To our west, another trough over Colorado will slowly move out into the Plains over the next few days.
932 AM PDT Mon Apr 24 2023 Cooler today and Tuesday west of the mountains with a deep marine layer.
1142 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 An upper low will maintain relatively cool conditions and periodic light rain chances through the first half of the week. but also wouldn't completely rule out some snowflakes towards Forest County or in the higher elevations of the Allegheny Mtns. Transient high pressure will build over the region, with the center near the Mid-Ohio Valley, shifting to central WV by dawn. Excellent radiational cooling conditions will lead to temps falling to below freezing tonight. Lows will generally range from 28 to 31, but wouldn't rule out some isolated cooler spots (looking at you Canaan Valley).
1147 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 A trof will approach from the west through tonight, then slowly cross the region through mid week.
Temperatures for both days will be mostly in the mid to upper 80s but locations along the immediate east coast will see temps in the low 80s.
Moisture advection ramps up on Tuesday in response to pressure falls to our west associated with an upper low digging SE across the Great Basin. Convective initiation would likely focus farther NW closer to the deeper forcing, increasing UL divergence, and greatest moisture convergence downstream of the upper low. NBM's cooler highs tomorrow look good, especially well east of the dryline where stratus could prove quite stubborn once again.
155 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 High pressure and colder air over the central United States will move slowly east through Tuesday.
1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023 (Rest of Today) A large area of high pressure continues to be centered to the north of the area this morning. Most guidance doesn't move the center of the high much today. Southern Middle Tennessee will likely be a bit cooler this afternoon, only reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s.
151 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 A nearly stationary upper level low pressure system will remain over the region through midweek, bringing chilly conditions and scattered showers. After brief high pressure and drier conditions towards the end of the week, another upper level disturbance will bring showers back into the region this weekend. Upper level low pressure system will remain over the region through the period. A weak perturbations circles the upper low enters our area this afternoon and evening with more scattered showers. Can't rule out a few snow flakes across the higher elevations of the Catskills, but little to no accumulations are expected. Another weak wave wraps around the upper low on Tuesday, bringing increased shower chances once again during the afternoon. A deep upper level trough centered over southeast Ontario will slowly weaken and lift northeast.
1213 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night ) Main H500 cyclone continues to rotate across the Great Lakes through the short term period providing persistent W-NW flow across the region. Sfc ridging nearly overhead will begin to shift northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. For today, mainly dry conditions are expected with highs topping out several degrees warmer than yesterday.
143 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2023 Upper air models show a closed Low over the WA/OR region with upper troughing over the Great Lakes region, and a mild ridge in between on the lee side of the rockies.
1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023 We had a frosty start to the day across Middle Tennessee and many areas had brief freezing temperatures around daybreak.
1037 AM MDT Mon Apr 24 2023 Weak upper ridging sits across the northern Great Plains, as the region is between the Great Lakes low and the approaching Pacific NW low.
- High pressure builds in mid-week bringing warmer (near-normal) temperatures and a couple of dry days. The highest concentration of showers will be across WI, with decreasing coverage to the south and west. DRY MID-WEEK: High pressure persists through mid-week with temperatures warming to near-normal.
128 PM PDT Mon Apr 24 2023 Cooler today and Tuesday west of the mountains with a deep marine layer.
An upper level trof passes southeastward through the region. Current model runs are allowing the track of the upper level trof to move a bit further south than earlier forecast.
Quite weather along with below-normal temperatures will prevail during the next 36 hours for the lower Ohio Valley. The thickening upper cloud deck will limit radiational cooling tonight with the lowest temperatures (low 30s) expected in the easternmost third of the forecast area. Mostly cloudy conditions will be present during the first half of the day while dry air persist in the low levels, so quiet weather is still advertise.
They expect most of the shower activity to be in the Upper and Middle Keys, with a few showers forming later today and this evening in the Lower Keys. Excess energy from convection tonight and the low level jet could produce showers and maybe thunderstorms on Tuesday morning.
1249 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 High pressure slowly returns to the mid-Atlantic region from late today into Tuesday. Secondary cold front now off the coast. High pressure moves over the area on Tuesday with zonal flow aloft. Low pressure begins to take shape over the southern plains Tuesday night. Dry locally, however, with lows generally in the low 40s inland and upper 40s to low 50s near the coast.
/Tonight through Monday/ Key messaging highlights: * Band of showers and isolated thunderstorms through central Iowa tonight * Dry midweek with a brief taste of warmer temperatures * Increasing precip chances late in the week followed by cooler temps into the weekend The CONUS weather pattern will be fairly active through the week, but with varied direct impacts on Iowa sensible weather.
Today's highs will only reach the low to mid 70s with CAA still oozing through the CWA. Tuesday will be a bit warmer with light southeasterly flow returning.
1244 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023 (Today and tonight) Expect another cloudy and cool day across West Central Texas today, although a bit warmer than what we saw yesterday. Extensive cloud cover will help to keep temperatures from getting much higher than the low to mid 60 at most locations. Cloudy conditions will continue overnight, with low temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
TFJ A ridge axis will be over eastern Montana today. Meanwhile, an upper trough/low will move from the Pacific NW today to Utah and Colorado on Tuesday. NE Montana will have increasing clouds and warmer temperatures today. Precipitation with this low will be over central Montana today and move to southern Montana tonight and Tuesday.
As was the case this morning, patchy frost will again be possible in the higher elevations of the northeast Georgia mountains.
155 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 A persistent upper level trough will keep unseasonably cool conditions across the region for the beginning of the week. There are some timing differences in this happening, so will hold off on issuing frost/freeze headlines further west until a better back- edge of potential below freezing temperatures can be finalized. Overall, low temperatures will again reach a few degrees on either side of the freezing mark, with the coldest readings across central Ohio where clear skies are likely all night. Northern stream will trough over the Great Lakes will retreat a bit allowing a southern stream system moving across the Plains to lift up the Ohio Valley.
148 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 High pressure slowly returns to the mid-Atlantic region from this evening into Tuesday.
Currently, northwest flow aloft with a closed low over the Great Lakes region and a S/WV ridge over the Northern High Plains. S/WV ridge develops east into the region for Tuesday, bringing milder air into the west.
High pressure will follow for the latter half of the week through at least the weekend, bringing much warmer temperatures.
233 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 An upper level low will remain over the Great Lakes and New England through midweek.
Tonight temperatures will fall into the 30s to near 40 with freezing temperatures possible in the northeast and higher eastern mountains. Highs should be about 5 degrees warmer than today in the lower 60s to near 70.
448 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 A trof will slowly cross the region through mid week.
Rainfall amounts look to remain on the lighter side, with even the highest amounts expected to remain below a quarter of an inch. After early morning lows in the mid to upper 20s across SW MN and adjacent area, with the rest of the region in the lower to mid 30s thanks to cloud coverage, the rest of the day will see improving conditions. We'll be left with decreasing easterly winds for the rest of the day, and afternoon highs in the lower to upper 50s.
The record low maximum temperature for Chicago of 40F should stay safe, but more pessimistic temps with guidance due to persistent cloud cover and lingering showers may keep temps trapped in the low 40s. Low-level clouds should clear out early enough Tuesday night to combine with an approaching ridge and light NE flow to lead to several hours of sub-freezing temps. Elsewhere outside the metro, temps may touch below freezing briefly toward sunrise, with frost likely.
353 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 High pressure slowly returns to the mid-Atlantic region from this evening into Tuesday.
Will need to monitor the progress of a warm front Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Isolated thunderstorms developed in the Boise and West Central Mountains earlier this morning as a cold front pushed into the area. This cold front will continue tracking east, with a slight chance (10-20%) of thunderstorms today mainly in the mountains and easternmost zones as the front interacts with weak instability. Snow levels will drop to 4500-5000 feet as cold air associated with a closed low moves southeast through our area. Much quieter weather will return on Tuesday and continue through the week as high pressure brings dry conditions and warmer temperatures.
312 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 High pressure will gradually build over the region through mid-week bringing cooler and drier conditions. Several waves of low pressure look to impact the area with cool temperatures and wet weather later this week. High pressure will build into the region tonight with the center of high settling over eastern WV by Tue morning. Widespread sub-freezing temperatures are expected west of the Blue Ridge temperatures. East of the Blue Ridge to US-29, temperatures won't be as cold, but skies will be mostly clear and winds likely light enough to support frost formation. Temperatures should be warmer and I'm becoming doubtful about the need for additional frost or freeze headlines. Overall, a large upper low remains cut off over the northeast CONUS and into Canada with a blocking ridge to the east offshore.
337 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 An upper level low will remain over the Great Lakes and New England through midweek.
1024 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 A trof will slowly cross the region through mid week.
731 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 High pressure slowly returns to the mid-Atlantic region from this evening into Tuesday.
737 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 High pressure and colder air over the central United States will move slowly east through Tuesday.
The lower levels of the atmosphere in this area appear too dry to support precipitation reaching the ground for most of the night. Areas closer to the foothills have a better chance of receiving light precipitation tonight due to frequent shower activity causing more moistening of the lower levels there. RMS The low over eastern Washington and Oregon continues to track more southeasterly, and the latest runs of the models have continued with a solution that drops through Boise and down towards the Great Salt Lake. Going through Tuesday there will still be some instability, so ther still could be some shower activity, but with less of the energy from the low tracking south and west of the area, there will not be as much of a chance.
Currently - The remnants of an old sloppy low in the central Gulf of Mexico has smeared out eastward and directly or indirectly placed the Keys in a broad zone of light cyclonic flow through the lower levels. An associated trough at 700 mb and is located in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and is sliding eastwards towards the Keys. The lower level moisture is expected to increase a bit further as the 700 mb trough begins impinging on the forecast area. Outside rain, expect overnight lows to reside broadly in the lower to mid 70s with dew points hanging out near 70. Broad troughing centered in the Gulf of Mexico will keep winds light out of the southeast through the overnight period.
Short lived break in the clouds early this morning allowed temperatures to drop below freezing across much of southeast Michigan. With the 500 MB elongated trough/low encompassing the entire great Lakes region early this week, the cold air will be slow to modify as the center of the 500 MB hovers along the Ontario/Quebec border during the mid week period.
1010 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 High pressure and colder air over the central United States will move slowly east through Tuesday.
A high pressure at the surface will continue to build in across the ArkLaMiss region tonight resulting in quiet weather. High pressure at the surface, currently centered over the Ohio River Valley, will continue to slowly slide to the east. Quiet weather will overall remain the norm through the forecast period, but conditions will be a touch warmer.
1051 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 An upper level low will remain over the Great Lakes and New England through midweek.
Will therefore continue to trend of undercutting the higher NBM pops, going with a general consensus of lower HREF/GFS/NAM pops which are all considerably lower than the operational NBM. Without a southerly component to our surface winds on Tuesday, this cloud cover will likely help to hold temperatures down during the afternoon so have gone with more of a NAM/MAV MOS blend vs the warmer NBM MOS values for highs on Tuesday. Likewise, higher pops will be noted near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor for Tuesday with greater pops not warranted until Tuesday Night across our west and northwest half in advance of an upper level trough exiting the Intermountain West and into the OK/TX Pnhdl region. A warm front will remain well south of our region through Tuesday Night, thus limiting severe weather chances through the overnight hours.
(Rest of Tonight) Except for some mid/high clouds developing, only minor changes were made to the forecast for the rest of tonight with surface ridging across E Conus. Clouds will decrease throughout the day with sunshine becoming more prominent area-wide by the afternoon, but temperatures will be seasonably cool due to a large area of high pressure moving east over the Ohio Valley which is providing northeasterly surface winds across Central Alabama. There will be a mix of sun with some high clouds tomorrow, but we'll have one more day stabilized by the region of high pressure over the Ohio Valley with westerly flow aloft. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer, but still pleasant with highs ranging from the upper 60s north to near 80 southeast.
910 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 An upper level low will remain over the Great Lakes and New England through midweek.
759 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 (Through Tonight) Showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms will move across the area this afternoon and evening, with the highest chance for a storms being south of I-10.
738 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 An upper level low will remain over the Great Lakes and New England through midweek.
Scattered showers will dissipate later tonight as a upper level ridge builds offshore. The upper level ridge will continue to build into midweek and into the weekend for a period of drier and warmer weather.
507 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2023 Upper air models show a closed Low over the WA/OR region with upper troughing over the Great Lakes region, and a mild ridge in between on the lee side of the rockies.
755 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 A trof will slowly cross the region through mid week.
1016 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 An upper level low will remain over the Great Lakes and New England through midweek.
304 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2023 The low over eastern Washington and Oregon continues to track more southeasterly, and the latest runs of the models have continued with a solution that drops through Boise and down towards the Great Salt Lake. Going through Tuesday there will still be some instability, so ther still could be some shower activity, but with less of the energy from the low tracking south and west of the area, there will not be as much of a chance.
A low pressure system will move out of far northeastern Nevada this evening allowing isolated showers and thunderstorms to diminish. DRy conditions and warming temperatures are expected through the rest of the week as high pressure builds over the Western U. Gusty northwest winds associated with the low will also wane tonight across the state. This will be it for rain and snow for quite some time as troughing moves east and ridging begins late Tuesday into midweek. Low temperatures Tuesday night will begin to warm but a few valleys across Elko county and higher terrain of central Nevada will drop below freezing. However, this may be the last night where freezing temperatures are likely with continued warming through the week.
Many Valley locations will reach the low 90s beginning mid-week. Upper-level ridge over the eastern Pacific will then amplify and dominate the West Coast's weather for the second half of the week.
Showers have already ended in our CWA except in Owyhee County as the upper low moves out of southern Idaho toward Utah.
Strong sea breezes along with cold air mixing down aloft has kept interior areas from warming much above the low 70s despite clear skies. In any case strong ridging and high pressure will build Tuesday through late in the week.
925 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 High pressure slowly returns to the mid-Atlantic region from this evening into Tuesday. Have started to see mid level cloud cover thicken across the NW corner of the area (and some virga on radar) as a result of a weak trough moving through the area. Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s across the SE to the mid to upper 30s across the NW.
Some locations along the Upper Cumberland will once again be close to the freezing mark. Looking farther west though, an abundant amount of mid to high clouds are approaching, and as these move into the area after midnight, these will keep overnight temperatures a few degrees warmer compared to last night.
Showers tapering off from west to east this evening as low pressure shifts east of the region. Building high pressure will usher in a much warmer and drier pattern from Tuesday through the end of the week. Light shower activity is diminishing across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington this afternoon as an upper level trough shifts east of the region. A few showers will linger into this evening across the Cascades, but expect dry conditions to prevail area wide by Tuesday morning as building high pressure commences a steady warming trend for the remainder of the week. Tuesday will still be somewhat mild as another trough traversing western Canada initially keeps the ridge relatively flat and allows some mid and high clouds spill over into the Pacific Northwest.
The mid-level low pressure system responsible for snow shower activity will depart into southern ID and northern Utah by mid-morning, bringing an end to snowfall. A blocking ridge of high pressure, known as an omega block, will become established off the West Coast, with the ridge axis extending into northern British Columbia.
The warm front will try to lift northward this afternoon into southern Oklahoma but its progress will likely be impeded somewhat by continued rainfall to its north.
305 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Area of strato-cu primarily centered on the I-69 to M-59 corridors has held temperatures up a bit early this morning, but clearing elsewhere has led to temperatures to freezing or below. This will lead to the area flirting with freezing temperatures once again tonight.
With limited insolation and afternoon showers, temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 50s for much of central and south central KS while those in southeast KS see highs in the lower 60s. Multiple rounds of showers are still anticipated as a mid/upper trough trough emerges from the Rockies and moves across the Southern High Plains on Wed before eventually tracking across northern Oklahoma Wednesday night into early Thu. This track continues to favor southern Kansas for the beneficial rainfall while we expect a sharp cutoff from north to south as drier air is steered into the area with flow around the area of high pressure situated over the Upper Mississippi Valley area.
320 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 A trof will slowly cross the region through mid week.
Ensemble models are still consistent on having an upper level low move through the Rockies today, into the Central High Plains tonight, then through the TX/OK panhandles and northern Oklahoma tomorrow.
Convection should wane after sunset, however minor upper level impulse may spawn new convection as the low-level mass fields intercept remnant outflows. Afternoon high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s will likely be observed over the coasts/interior respectively; temperatures along the immediate coasts may only reach the lower 80s.