Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1256 PM MST Wed Jan 4 2023 Water vapor shows nearly stationary upper low over the Upper Midwest, ridge building into the Northern Rockies, and strong upper low offshore the west coast. At the surface, low is over southeast MN with weak/broad high pressure over the western Dakotas. Upper ridge currently building into the Northern Rockies will slow translate east the next couple of days as upper trof affects the west coast.
Discussion: Cold front has moved east of the region early this afternoon with drier air moving in from the west. High pressure is building eastward across the Arklatex and Lower Mississippi Valley region. We may have a some clouds tonight and tomorrow as the upper trough axis shifts southeastward toward the Southern Appalachians, but otherwise, surface ridging will keep us dry and mostly clear.
At surface cold front approaching Interstate 69 corridor and will push east through northwest Ohio near daybreak. Occluded front beneath mature/stacked mid level system becomes west to east oriented well north of CWA later today as cooler/drier airmass gradually establishes. Temporary split flow regime as upper low continues to lift out/dampen into southeast Canada.
1245 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Widespread showers are likely today with a crossing cold front. Recent 500mb HREF guidance suggests the forecast area situated within the left exit region of a strengthening jet streak ahead of approaching low pressure. On Thursday, the aforementioned low should become vertically stacked as it is shunted eastward toward the Great Lakes in response to a digging western CONUS trough. Associated lowering heights should support temperature about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day's high temperature.
1118 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (Today and tonight) We will continue to be under cyclonic flow aloft today as a strong upper low slowly meanders across the Midwest. Cyclonic flow aloft will begin to be replaced by short wave ridging overnight tonight.
TFJ MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a pacific trough leaving the Great Plains for the Mississippi Valley and a ridge developing just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Today through Thursday: Dense fog is the order of the day as MaxTs reach above freezing in the southwest melting snow and then light winds migrate that new moisture over the shallowing inversion in the northeast River Valleys where it slowly moistens the surface airmass. Meanwhile, the Pacific ridge to the west will mopve onshore over British Columbia and spill out over the Front Range of Alberta generating a chinook.
Several weak thermal inversions were evident in the sounding through 700 mb, with geopotential height level rises over the past twelve hours consistent with a strengthening mid-level ridge in the west-central Atlantic. Temperatures have already climbed into the lower 80s at most island communities. Combined with dew points well into the lower 70s, it feels more like late October than January this morning. From synopsis, high pressure centered just east of Bermuda will sag southward and continue to recede into the central North Atlantic through this afternoon. A weakening cold front will approach the Florida Keys coastal waters on Thursday, resulting in a brief window of slackened breezes Thursday afternoon and evening.
Main feature to monitor this afternoon is the cold front that is slowly pushing southward into the Florida Peninsula. Band of instability and convection associated and ahead of the cold front will increase the chance of showers and t-storms across, mainly across the Nature Coast this afternoon and evening.
JEH/88 (Now through Thursday) Through the period, dry conditions are expected as drier deep layer area gradually filters into the region in the wake of a cold front. Aloft, southwest flow gradually becomes zonal over the region as a trough lifts off to our northeast through Thursday. By the end of the period, weak ridging aloft begins to build into the region from the west. Highs on Thursday will also be a bit cooler with mainly mid 60s expected northwest of I-65 with mid 60s to near 70 southeast.
Current upper level ridging building from the west will amplify through Thursday and continue to move eastward as the CONUS is dominated by relative vorticity advection. In addition, this high pressure system will bring near to slightly above normal temperatures across our CWA. The deepening trough and strong atmospheric river off the coast of California will not reach our area, however the trailing cold front has the potential to bring moisture to southern California early Thursday morning.
1051 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (Today through Thursday night) Several vort maxes will move across the Panhandles through tonight on the southwest edge of the upper level low moving through Iowa. Highs today are expected to be around normal with readings on Thursday about 5 to 10 degrees warmer.
(Tonight) Gusty west winds persist this afternoon across far northeast Oklahoma on backside of slow moving upper low located over the Upper Midwest region. Temperatures are forecast to fall to near or slightly below freezing overnight across NE OK/NW AR with light winds and dry air-mass in place.
The upper low will continue to remain to our north with impulses moving east over the area. The surface cold front will push further east of the area as high pressure builds further into the area from the northwest. Highs will range from the mid 60s northwest to the low 70s far southeast. A zonal flow aloft will prevail as the forecast area remains within a broad trough with the large upper low over the Southern Great Lakes.
(This evening through Thursday) A weak cold front this evening will bring in drier air, especially northwest of I-44. Because of that, lows will drop into the mid-20s across much of the area and around freezing in the Red River Valley. Tomorrow will be the last in our string of warmer-than-normal, calm days.
530 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 A general persistent pattern is likely to continue over the next 24- 36 hours with the mid/upper level low currently over the Upper Midwest slowly moving eastward. Further west/south, some sunshine is likely by the afternoon which should allow temperatures to warm up into the low to mid 40s. These cooler readings will be aided by at least some decrease in cloudiness overnight along with lighter westerly winds as the surface pressure gradient relaxes.
254 PM MST Wed Jan 4 2023 Tonight, there will be a dry northwesterly flow aloft ahead of a moderate ridge over the Rocky Mountains. It should be mostly confined to the lower river valley and southern slope (north exposure) again, and moderate drainage flow may keep fog out of much of the urban corridor again as well. The ridge axis should be moving over northeast Colorado by afternoon. High temperatures are forecast in the 30s and 40s across the plains mostly 20s and 30s in the mountains, just a few degrees cooler than normal.
434 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Cold front along with showers and thunderstorms moving through the Southeast today.
Sunny skies dominated the region and temperatures had climbed into the 70s but the slightly cooler air is still on the way. L/W trough will not move much and remain in control over eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS through at least tomorrow afternoon.
527 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Showers will end this evening after the passage of a cold front.
(Now through Thursday) Through the period, dry conditions are expected as drier deep layer area gradually filters into the region in the wake of a cold front. Aloft, southwest flow gradually becomes zonal over the region as a trough lifts off to our northeast through Thursday. By the end of the period, weak ridging aloft begins to build into the region from the west. Highs on Thursday will also be a bit cooler with mainly mid 60s expected northwest of I-65 with mid 60s to near 70 southeast.
243 PM PST Wed Jan 4 2023 The arrival of a frontal system tonight into Thursday will produce a swath of mixed precipitation in the form of snow, rain, and freezing rain across central and northeast Washington.
559 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (Tonight) Current satellite imagery shows a well defined cold front near southern GA/northern FL lined with showers and storms that stretch southwest over the Gulf of Mexico. This front is associated with a large upper low spinning in the Upper Midwest. In the wake of the cold front, a dry and cool airmass continues to filter into the Tennessee Valley.
339 PM PST Wed Jan 4 2023 The arrival of a frontal system tonight into Thursday will produce a swath of mixed precipitation in the form of snow, rain, and freezing rain across central and northeast Washington.
The latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows an upper low spinning over the upper midwest, with a broad trough across the central and southern US producing west to southwest winds over the region.
903 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 The cold front is about halfway through our CWA this evening and the rain has concluded through the entire CWA. Behind it, winds are gradually shifting from the south southwest to the northwest as the cold front moves through. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region bringing us closer to feeling like winter in the South. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, warmer around the SE Big Bend.
845 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Showers will end this evening after the passage of a cold front.
700 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (This evening through Thursday) A weak cold front this evening will bring in drier air, especially northwest of I-44. Because of that, lows will drop into the mid-20s across much of the area and around freezing in the Red River Valley. Tomorrow will be the last in our string of warmer-than-normal, calm days.
412 PM MST Wed Jan 4 2023 A transient ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin will push east across the forecast area through tomorrow morning. This ridge will provide a brief lull with dry conditions and increasing high clouds expected through Thursday morning. Some snow showers are possible Thursday afternoon across the higher terrain of eastern Utah.
The highest expected impacts will be due to heavy snowfall in the Sierra, the White Mountains, and Spring Mountains where Winter Storm Warnings are in place.
925 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 A cold front will slowly pass across the region overnight. Temperatures will remain well above average through Thursday with slightly cooler air following behind the cold front. A weak low pressure system may impact the region later in the weekend bringing renewed precipitation chances. A cold front, currently extending from central Maryland and southwest along the Shenandoah Valley, will continue to press east and southward overnight. An occasional shower, patchy drizzle and/or fog, could evolve overnight associated with the cold front and residual moisture behind the front. The cold front should be east of the area Thursday morning with a downsloping flow expected through the day. Expect a mixture of clouds/sun given the incoming trough from the west. An upper level low will develop over the Great Lakes Thursday night.
556 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Showers will end this evening after the passage of a cold front.
Dry and mild conditions are expected with temperatures near normal over the northern zones, and warmer over the SW zones.
525 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (Tonight) Gusty west winds persist this afternoon across far northeast Oklahoma on backside of slow moving upper low located over the Upper Midwest region. Temperatures are forecast to fall to near or slightly below freezing overnight across NE OK/NW AR with light winds and dry air-mass in place.
258 PM MST Wed Jan 4 2023 Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies under NW flow aloft as a ridge builds eastward thru the PacNW. This will be followed by a modest increase in gap winds tonight as the aforementioned ridge axis shifts to central MT. w/ poor mixing holding temps back some across lower elevations despite the ridging. Next Pacific trof will introduce a chance of snow showers to our west by late Thursday night.
721 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Rain exits the forecast area this afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Much cooler temperatures expected behind the front through the end of the week, with some light rain or snow expected Thursday night. A dry forecast continues into the overnight hours, with several breaks in the clouds at the beginning of the night before low level clouds build back in with an upper low moving into the Midwest region. Upper low continues to slowly carve its way through the upper Midwest region on Thursday. Some breaks in the clouds expected earlier in the day, but we will cloud up pretty well as the low approaches. There has been a consistent signal in models pushing this low across our northern CWA and forcing some pcpn out of it.
Cutoff upper low over se MN this aftn will wobble ewd across the lakes through Thu. Within a slowly eastward shifting upper level low pressure system, a strong vort max moves east across the forecast area during the first few hours of the TAF period.
Latest surface analysis shows the occluded low pressure system centered over the Mitten State with the cold front traveling south along I-75 through central KY. Satellite shows mostly clear skies in the wake of the cold front with a few cloud streets of stratocumulus streaming SW-NE. Mostly clear skies with periods of cloud cover will allow for temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s by tomorrow morning. Model soundings do show enough moisture depth tomorrow late afternoon/evening to allow for possible sprinkles/drizzle as the upper low traverses the OH Valley into the Great Lakes, so have included a slight chance mention of sprinkles to end the short term period.
Low temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s overnight and high temperatures to climb into the high 50s to low 60s tomorrow. /KP/ Through the rest of today: Tonight and Thursday: As the cold front continues to push out of our region to the east, cooler and more seasonal overnight low temperatures will return for tonight.
537 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 Through the rest of today: Tonight and Thursday: As the cold front continues to push out of our region to the east, cooler and more seasonal overnight low temperatures will return for tonight.
Thus, a chilly night is on tap with overnight low temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 30s north toward the upper 30s to near 40 degrees farther south with a decent frost in our northern zones by daybreak on Thursday while patchy frost will be possible along and south of I-20. /19/ (This evening through Thursday Night) A super nice winter day going with the cold front still working through the parishes, but a range of 30 degree dew points feels like a frosty night on tap as skies clear.
This activity was being supported by the upper level energy from the parent trough is of this system. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s from north to south, but afternoon highs on Thursday should slightly cooler (mid 70s to near 80 degrees N to S). Main feature to monitor this afternoon is the cold front that is slowly pushing southward into the Florida Peninsula. Band of instability and convection associated and ahead of the cold front will increase the chance of showers and t-storms across, mainly across the Nature Coast this afternoon and evening.
231 PM MST Wed Jan 4 2023 A ridge of high pressure moved over the region today, allowing the stratus deck to break up for most of the Northern Rockies. Some valleys in Clearwater, Mineral, Sanders and Lincoln counties could even experience a period of light freezing rain.
558 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (This evening through Thursday Night) A super nice winter day going with the cold front still working through the parishes, but a range of 30 degree dew points feels like a frosty night on tap as skies clear.
609 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 Key Points: * Seasonable Temperatures Ahead * Predominately Dry Conditions Over the Next 7 Days A large upper trough remains across the eastern half of the US with a upper low approaching the Great Lakes. As the upper low continues to moves off to the east the regions temperatures will chill into the 20s with clearing skies. In addition, surface ridging will build in the region.
448 PM MST Wed Jan 4 2023 Tonight, there will be a dry northwesterly flow aloft ahead of a moderate ridge over the Rocky Mountains. It should be mostly confined to the lower river valley and southern slope (north exposure) again, and moderate drainage flow may keep fog out of much of the urban corridor again as well. The ridge axis should be moving over northeast Colorado by afternoon. High temperatures are forecast in the 30s and 40s across the plains mostly 20s and 30s in the mountains, just a few degrees cooler than normal.
upper troughing over the central conus will continue to shift east, while upper riding over the Intermountain West will shift east across Colorado tomorrow.
321 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 Through the rest of today: Tonight and Thursday: As the cold front continues to push out of our region to the east, cooler and more seasonal overnight low temperatures will return for tonight.
425 PM MST Wed Jan 4 2023 Water vapor shows nearly stationary upper low over the Upper Midwest, ridge building into the Northern Rockies, and strong upper low offshore the west coast. At the surface, low is over southeast MN with weak/broad high pressure over the western Dakotas. Upper ridge currently building into the Northern Rockies will slow translate east the next couple of days as upper trof affects the west coast.
Across eastern upper, cooler air continues with precipitation likely more snow than rain. The precipitation is associated with moisture from low pressure centered across southeast Minnesota. Cooler air will progressively get drawn into northern Michigan tonight as the low edges closer. Remaining unseasonably mild tonight with lows ranging from the mid 20s far north to the low 30s south.
253 PM MST Wed Jan 4 2023 A transient ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin will push east across the forecast area through tomorrow morning. This ridge will provide a brief lull with dry conditions and increasing high clouds expected through Thursday morning. Some snow showers are possible Thursday afternoon across the higher terrain of eastern Utah.
929 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 Much cooler temperatures expected behind the front through the end of the week, with some light rain and snow expected Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Temperatures will continue to drop overnight into the low to middle 30s. Upper low continues to slowly carve its way through the upper Midwest region on Thursday. Some breaks in the clouds expected earlier in the day, but we will cloud up pretty well as the low approaches. There has been a consistent signal in models pushing this low across our northern CWA and forcing some pcpn out of it.
855 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 00Z upper air analysis places an upper level trough over the Plains and Mississippi Valley with amplified upper level ridging over the Rockies. Meanwhile, surface analysis places a ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains and yesterday's cold front located over the Appalachians.
513 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) An upper level ridge over the Rockies tonight will move into the plains by Thursday night.
a mid and upper level trof axis was making its way eastward through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. the trof axis will clear the CWA to the east allowing for mostly clear skies and west-northwesterly winds to be common.
The winds should take on a more variable direction as high pressure builds southward across the FA this afternoon.
Cutoff upper low over se MN this aftn will wobble ewd across the lakes through Thu. An upper level low was over east IA at the start of the TAF period. Surface obs upstream to IKK has indicated very light rain or drizzle with temperatures barely above freezing. Otherwise, some improvement is expected late in the TAF period as the low moves east.
As the sun rises, any low clouds and fog should start to mix up, but added instability ahead of the approaching cold front may yield additional showers and MVFR CIGs until later today when the front moves through.
340 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 An upper level low will track through the southern portion of the Great Lakes and bring scattered rain and snow showers to the region. M30C 5H temperatures suggest and HRRR suggest convective elements/brief snow bursts associated with transitory bands, though overall impact offset by above freezing surface temperatures.
In addition the low level winds will generate convergence along the lakeshore. Surface temperatures have been slow to fall and they will likely end up close to freezing by daybreak. Local slick spots will be possible for the morning commute especially on bridges and overpasses. Some light precipitation is possible tonight as this cold advection pattern takes hold within broad/deep cyclonic flow around the Iowa upper level low. Fortunately sfc temps remain above freezing most of the night and freezing drizzle is not much of a concern. The upper low will move overhead on Thursday and the moisture depth is shown to increase substantially toward 12Z. Some light accumulations are possible Thursday but generally under one inch and mainly just on the grass since sfc temps remain the lower to mid 30s.
1147 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 Key Points: * Seasonable Temperatures Ahead * Predominately Dry Conditions Over the Next 7 Days A large upper trough remains across the eastern half of the US with a upper low approaching the Great Lakes. As the upper low continues to moves off to the east the regions temperatures will chill into the 20s with clearing skies. In addition, surface ridging will build in the region.
1241 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 A cold front will move east across the Carolinas overnight and offshore early Thursday.
355 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 A cold front will move across the region late today through this evening.
1009 PM PST Wed Jan 4 2023 The arrival of a frontal system tonight into Thursday will produce a swath of mixed precipitation in the form of snow, rain, and freezing rain across central and northeast Washington.
Otherwise temperatures should be mild today, with highs in the low to mid 50s in most places. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30s generally.
1243 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 Much cooler temperatures expected behind the front through the end of the week, with some light rain and snow expected Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Temperatures will continue to drop overnight into the low to middle 30s. Upper low continues to slowly carve its way through the upper Midwest region on Thursday. Some breaks in the clouds expected earlier in the day, but we will cloud up pretty well as the low approaches. There has been a consistent signal in models pushing this low across our northern CWA and forcing some pcpn out of it.
A mid latitude trough migrating eastward into the eastern United States has dislodged a deep layered ridge east of our area. The Keys currently reside on the far west southwestern end of a lower level ridge, resulting in light breezes ranging from east to south. Short Term Update - The mid latitude trough will continue to push further into the eastern United States through the overnight period. However, We will just barely ensconced within the west southwestern tail of the lower tropospheric ridge. The west southwestern tail of an Atlantic ridge will remain across Keys waters through the overnight period.
1046 PM MST Wed Jan 4 2023 A transient ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin will push east across the forecast area through tomorrow morning. This ridge will provide a brief lull with dry conditions and increasing high clouds expected through Thursday morning. Some snow showers are possible Thursday afternoon across the higher terrain of eastern Utah.
As an anomalously strong low pressure system slowly continues to move into the Pacific Northwest, a tight pressure gradient will continue to generate breezy conditions tonight through Thursday evening.