Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1125 AM CST Sat Feb 4 2023 A chilly start this morning is seeing a quick warm up with temperatures near to below freezing bumping up to near 40 F as we approach 10 am. Under this axis of high pressure, lighter winds have allowed for temperatures to fall into the upper 20s so far. A few degrees of further cooling are possible before sunrise, and temps should be near at or below freezing across the board for daybreak. /NF/ A nice day is on tap for Sunday, with highs climbing into the mid 60s over most of the area as, high pressure continues to prevail over the area.
233 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 Arctic high pressure overhead moves offshore this afternoon. An area of low pressure will track across the Great Lakes on Sunday bringing with it breezy conditions.
(Now through Sunday) An evolving upper trof over the central states amplifies while moving into the eastern states during the period.
(This afternoon through Sunday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA through the remainder of the short term period.
300 PM MST Sat Feb 4 2023 Winds will gradually weaken overnight tonight as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
639 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 High pressure drifting off the Delmarva Coast will create a southerly flow of milder air beginning today and peaking on Sunday ahead of a weak cold front. Temperatures sunday will rebound about 40 degrees from the lows this Saturday morning.
554 PM CST Sat Feb 4 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) The center of dry and cold high pressure has moved off to our east allowing south winds to kick in. A weak trough passage will bring some fairly thick cirrus clouds overnight into Sunday morning, but no precipitation.
Winds will gradually weaken overnight tonight as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
Moisture is forecast to surge northward (slowly) overnight into Sun as troughing develops along the ECFL coast. Weak low pressure will develop off of the Cape on Sun with rapid frontogenesis induced by an approaching mid-level trough. Much of this will hinge on exactly where and how far off the coast low pressure development takes place. Varying winds on Sun with low pressure development over the waters, as speeds gradually diminish thru the day, and we keep the SCA going for 5 of the 6 marine legs thru 4PM/21Z, but this will likely need to be extended.
This will be in response to a passing mid/upper level trough over north TX. A weak upper-lvl ridge will build over the Central/Southern Plains on Sunday, bringing another dry but warmer day. 850mb temperatures will climb into the 10-12 degC; therefore, sfc temperatures could potentially climb into the low to mid 70s.
940 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 High pressure drifting off the Delmarva Coast is bringing a milder southerly flow of milder air beginning today and peaking on Sunday ahead of a weak cold front. Temperatures sunday will rebound about 40 degrees from the lows this Saturday morning.
550 PM CST Sat Feb 4 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday) With deep ridging in place over the East CONUS, a broad area of stable, dry air is situated across the region. Temperatures will trend warmer as surface winds become southeasterly with highs in the 50s today then 60s tomorrow.
Colorado will be under a moderate northwest flow aloft with upstream ridging across the Great Basin. The ridge axis will transition across Colorado later tonight and Sunday morning as the flow backs more westerly. As the ridge approaches, expect an increase again in high level moisture and mountain wave cloudiness after midnight tonight from from west to east. Mountain top winds will also be on the decrease with approaching ridge and decreasing flow aloft. By Sunday afternoon, the ridge axis shifts eastward into the central plains with an increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of next Pacific system. Thermal ridge will be over eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon as 700mb temperatures rise to around +2c. There is a bit stronger inversions but temperatures should be similar to slightly warmer temperatures.
201 PM PST Sat Feb 4 2023 Pacific storm moves through over the weekend with rain in the lower elevations, gusty wind, and mountain snow impacting travel. Moderate to Heavy snow is forecast tonight for the west slopes of the Sierra with 1 to 3 feet on new snow over the higher elevations. As the cold front moves into the region instability will increase with the models favoring the southern half of the CWA for best potential for any thunderstorms. Cold core upper low will move over the area on Sunday. As the low moves southeast of the area Sunday evening activity will die off.
242 PM MST Sat Feb 4 2023 Overview: An upper level ridge over the western CONUS. will progress eastward across the Intermountain West (tonight) and Rockies/High Plains (Sunday) -- as a robust upper level trough. Tonight: With NW flow aloft over the region (on the eastern periphery of the approaching ridge). as the aforementioned ridge progresses eastward across the Rockies and High Plains.
These light winds and continued clear skies overnight will result in low temperatures to drop back into the low to mid 30s. Highs will climb into the low to mid 60s across the region.
811 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 Clouds will increase this evening into the overnight hours as an upper trough nears the east coast.
854 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 Update We're watching a cold front move this way. - Risk for drizzle/patchy freezing drizzle later tonight into Sunday morning A cold front was dropping southeast out of the Northern Plains. Meanwhile low level moisture was streaming up through the Middle MS Valley this afternoon ahead of this approaching cold front. Enough warming is expected to occur to send temperatures above freezing for most locations as the risk for any precipitation increases.
543 PM CST Sat Feb 4 2023 (Tonight) High cirrus clouds associated with an area of low pressure developing over the Midnight are streaming across the region this afternoon.
537 PM CST Sat Feb 4 2023 A back door cold front continues to push in from the east as system moves through Manitoba. Current surface analysis places low near southern Saskatchewan, with warm front stretched through north central into northeast North Dakota. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Northern Rockies into the Great Basin, with trough over the Midwest. For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, warm front stalls out with colder air backing into the area this evening and overnight. On Sunday, cooler but still above average temperatures are expected as clouds will be a bit reluctant to dissipate.
However, just in case I mixed in some slightly cooler MOS guidance to offset NBM a bit. On Sunday a s/w ridge ahead of the next system will build over the region. However, soundings are cooler and show less mixing as compared to today, so cooler NBM numbers actually seem okay. Pattern will be persistent with warmer temps through the period.
653 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 Aviation - Risk for drizzle/patchy freezing drizzle later tonight into Sunday morning A cold front was dropping southeast out of the Northern Plains. Meanwhile low level moisture was streaming up through the Middle MS Valley this afternoon ahead of this approaching cold front. Enough warming is expected to occur to send temperatures above freezing for most locations as the risk for any precipitation increases.
Otherwise, forecast in good shape but there are signs that some fog could develop late tonight in parts of the Milk and Missouri River valleys as atmosphere stabilizes with an upper ridge building in. TFJ Regarding the High Wind Warning, some locations have already had their peak winds while others are only just now getting their peak winds.
708 PM MST Sat Feb 4 2023 Winds will gradually weaken overnight tonight as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
237 PM MST Sat Feb 4 2023 Regarding the High Wind Warning, some locations have already had their peak winds while others are only just now getting their peak winds.
A transitory ridge of high pressure will be over the Northern Rockies tonight allowing for some weak valley inversions to develop.
201 PM MST Sat Feb 4 2023 High pressure will prevail across the intermountain west bringing above normal temperatures and clear conditions this weekend.
High pressure will prevail across the intermountain west bringing above normal temperatures and clear conditions this weekend.
Also producing fairly significant temperature differences between the ridge tops and sheltered valleys. In the upper levels, a trough will be crossing the region. The main impact of this trough will be to bring broken cirrus tonight and tomorrow morning, as seen upstream on visible satellite imagery. High clouds will have a decreasing trend tomorrow afternoon behind the trough axis.
An inverted coastal trough will linger tonight with the onshore pressure gradient weakening as the trough axis lifts northward with the approach of a mid level trough moving eastward across the Plains. Low clouds will increase in coverage through the night with increasing high cirrus aloft with the approach of the upper trough, with only brief shallow ground fog possible across inland areas toward sunrise since boundary layer winds will remain too strong for fog formation. Minimum temperatures will range form the low/mid 40s across inland SE GA to the Suwannee River Valley to the low/mid 50s toward the Atlantic coast and St.
907 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 An area of low pressure will track across the Great Lakes on Sunday bringing with it breezy conditions.
High pressure will push temperatures above normal for the weekend, with afternoon highs peaking around 12 degrees above average Sunday. Another weather system will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures early in the week, followed by a gradual warming trend. A ridge of high pressure is bringing dry conditions and guiding temperatures to well above average this weekend.
649 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 High pressure drifting off the Delmarva Coast will create a southerly flow of milder air beginning today and peaking on Sunday ahead of a weak cold front. Temperatures sunday will rebound about 40 degrees from the lows this Saturday morning.
331 PM CST Sat Feb 4 2023 Current surface analysis places low near southern Saskatchewan, with warm front stretched through north central into northeast North Dakota. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Northern Rockies into the Great Basin, with trough over the Midwest. For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, warm front stalls out with colder air backing into the area this evening and overnight. On Sunday, cooler but still above average temperatures are expected as clouds will be a bit reluctant to dissipate.
613 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 High pressure brings dry weather through the weekend.
Currently - A cold front recently pushed southward through the Keys region earlier today. However, high pressure moving rather swiftly eastward off the Mid Atlantic coast has already shifted fresh to strong breezes east northeasterly. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned high pressure system will drag the tightest pressure gradient out with it as it drives further into the Atlantic through the overnight period. Again, for now, will maintain high to likely PoPs for the island chain, with the highest chances to the east. The post cold front cooling and falling dew points are likely completely finished for this cycle due to winds having veered so quickly. High pressure driving off the Mid Atlantic coast will result in fresh and gusty east northeasterly breezes to relax out of the east through the overnight period.
1242 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 High pressure drifting off the Delmarva Coast is bringing a milder southerly flow of milder air beginning today and peaking on Sunday ahead of a weak cold front.
At the surface, high pressure will continue to move away from AR and winds will gradually become SWrly.
(Today and tonight) A progressive upper ridge currently moving east across the Rockies will help increase surface west-southwesterly winds this afternoon as the ridge axis shifts east out of eastern NM later this morning. Mostly sunny skies and warmer southwest breezes will provide another jump in temperatures, into the low to mid 70s area wide.
A back door cold front continues to move in from the northeast with low stratus on the leading edge of the front. Temperatures on the back side of the front remain colder while temperatures on the western half remain above freezing. A back door cold front continues to push in from the east as system moves through Manitoba. Current surface analysis places low near southern Saskatchewan, with warm front stretched through north central into northeast North Dakota. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Northern Rockies into the Great Basin, with trough over the Midwest. For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, warm front stalls out with colder air backing into the area this evening and overnight. On Sunday, cooler but still above average temperatures are expected as clouds will be a bit reluctant to dissipate.
In addition, the low level jet will move into Ohio and become weaker. Had to blend in a little bit of CONSRaw due to the high NBM bias. Colder temperatures will return in the wake of the cold front as winds shift to the northwest and north. Even so, with the low clouds around, temperatures should only fall to the middle and upper 20s for overnight lows. Much of the rest of the period will have chances for rain as multiple waves move through an upper troughing pattern.
The upper trough swings through Sunday afternoon and the clouds will be jettisoned eastward. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Sunday) With deep ridging in place over the East CONUS, a broad area of stable, dry air is situated across the region. Temperatures will trend warmer as surface winds become southeasterly with highs in the 50s today then 60s tomorrow.
Â Over the next 36 hours the ensembles, including run to run consistency, along with the latest deterministic models appear to be in good agreement with an upper level ridge building across the western United States as into the Rockies. Â West to northwesterly downslope flow will be present during this entire time frame as an upper level trough moves across the Northern Plains late today/early tonight. As this northern branch upper level trough crosses the northernÂ plains this afternoon a weak cold front/surface boundary will cross western Kansas.
Winds will gradually weaken overnight tonight as a low pressure system approaches from the west. As this system passes through the area tomorrow afternoon through Monday morning, periods of snow will be possible, especially over the higher terrain south of Bozeman. Additionally, I've allowed the High Wind Warning to expire.
Mild and dry weather will continue Sunday, as the upper ridge slides over the central states. The upper trough will quickly push the ridge eastward. Ahead of the approaching trough, southwest winds will become gusty late Sunday across portions of the area, particularly northeastern WY, the northern Hills/foothills, and south central SD. Winds behind the cold front will become gusty Monday morning, and Froude number rises above 1, indicating the potential for some upslope-enhanced snow over the northern Black Hills. Another couple days of mild and dry conditions are expected, as this trough splits from its low pressure system over the SW US, and zonal flow develops over the northern plains ahead of a clipper.
Gusty southwest winds will also develop Sunday ahead of a cold front expected to move through northern Arizona Sunday night and into Monday. Warmer temperatures redeveloping for the latter half of the week. Weak high pressure moving over Arizona will be pushed east on Sunday as a trough of low pressure pushes across the western States. The approaching trough will bring increasing southwest winds Sunday and Sunday night. The higher terrain of the Kiabab Plateau, Western Mogollon Rim, Eastern Mogollon Rim, the White Mountains and areas just down wind will see widespread wind of 20 to 30 MPH with gusts to around 40 MPH. The front will also bring low chances of light snow to the higher elevations Sunday night and Monday.
High clouds will continue to stream northeast through the overnight hours, as a weak trough moves across the region. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than last night, as they range from the middle 30s to around 40. The center of the high will be located off to our east and winds will be mostly out of the south and east under 5 kts. Commonly cooler locations could touch freezing briefly before dawn and frost is likely for many north of Highway 84. Southerly winds will become more established heading into Sunday ahead of an upper trough that will be moving across the area. With dry air in place, only some increase in cloudiness is expected and the attendant cold front will likely stall north of our area.
NBM PoPs and QPF with the incoming Pacific trough have decreased slightly since this afternoon but not enough to update. Cold front and main pcpn band will move eastward across the OR/ID border around 12Z. More sporadic showers of rain and snow will continue the rest of Sunday and Sunday evening throughout the CWA as the upper trough moves through. Clearing and a few degrees cooler Monday. An upper ridge over the area today will shift eastward as a storm system approaches the coast. Areas near the ID/OR border in the lower Treasure Valley could see a brief period of freezing rain at the start. Otherwise temperatures overnight should remain at or above freezing in the lower Snake Plain which limit any accumulation.
1110 PM CST Sat Feb 4 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) High pressure is centered along the mid Atlantic coast this afternoon which has allowed the flow to become onshore today.
1014 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2023 A weak cold front will cross east through the northern Ohio Valley on Sunday.
A low pressure system will move through southern Idaho today. We will see a break in the snow before a second wave of snow arrives on the back side of the low overnight tonight into Monday morning. The eastern highlands still has the more impressive amounts with 3 to 8 inches above 6000 feet, closer to a foot at ridge top levels.
Highlights: 1) Well above normal temperatures Sunday & Monday 2) Slight chances for rain late Mon/early Tues in SE KS A ridge will move east into the Plains for Sunday as another trough comes onshore in addition to a mid level wave along the Rockies.
The next chance of precipitation, which should fall mainly as snow, arrives tonight with a weak cold frontal passage. A weak clipper type low pressure system will pass north of our forecast area later this evening into the overnight. Temperatures have been rising all night and will continue through the daytime hours, reaching the lower to upper 30s by early this evening. Best chance for showers will then become more focused on the higher terrain of the Northern Adirondacks and across northern Vermont in the Greens. Overnight minimum temperatures will be mild tonight, only dipping into the 20s with some lower 30s in the lower Champlain valley.
Southerly surface winds will stay gusty ahead of the trough but will weaken and veer to the west-northwest behind the boundary this evening and tonight. Surface and upper level ridging will dominate the pattern in the central US tomorrow, making for a very nice February day with sunny skies, light winds and temperatures near 60 degrees for much of the area. A progressive pattern will bring a mid-level longwave trough toward the Plains on Monday. Another warm, albeit very windy, day can be expected Monday before a cold front moves through later in the day.
1246 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 A weak cold front will cross east through the northern Ohio Valley on Sunday.
As the trough exits expect clearing overnight with cooling temperatures. Not looking for widespread sub- freezing conditions but some of the more protected inland valleys could drop below 32 for a time towards morning.
It will remain breezy tonight into Sunday morning, and with the approach of the trof, skies will vary between partly and mostly cloudy. Lows tonight will be 15 to 20 degrees warmer than last night, with readings in the middle to upper 30s. Highs Sunday will be 5 to 10 degree warmer than today in the 50 to 55 degree range. Weak high pressure will move over our region Sunday night, allowing winds to become light and variable, and clouds will decrease. Lows will be a few degrees colder than tonight, dropping back to around the freezing mark. The high will move off to our east on Monday, and winds will become southerly and fairly breezy by Monday afternoon.
1213 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 Aviation We're watching a cold front move this way. - Risk for drizzle/patchy freezing drizzle later tonight into Sunday morning A cold front was dropping southeast out of the Northern Plains. Meanwhile low level moisture was streaming up through the Middle MS Valley this afternoon ahead of this approaching cold front. Enough warming is expected to occur to send temperatures above freezing for most locations as the risk for any precipitation increases.
332 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 Discussion/Marine - Low Risk for Patchy Drizzle This Morning A cold front continues to approach the area from the Northern Plains while prolonged warm advection across the lowest 850mb has supported slightly increasing moisture. Given the lower profile of the moisture below the DGZ, drizzle is the main expected mode of precipitation. No major impacts are expected given the lack of moisture as well as the near to above freezing temperatures. As the cold front sweeps through this afternoon temps will fall leading to any lingering precip to transition to flurries.
133 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 Clouds will increase this evening into the overnight hours as an upper trough nears the east coast.
100 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 An inverted coastal trough will linger tonight with the onshore pressure gradient weakening as the trough axis lifts northward with the approach of a mid level trough moving eastward across the Plains. Low clouds will increase in coverage through the night with increasing high cirrus aloft with the approach of the upper trough, with only brief shallow ground fog possible across inland areas toward sunrise since boundary layer winds will remain too strong for fog formation. Minimum temperatures will range form the low/mid 40s across inland SE GA to the Suwannee River Valley to the low/mid 50s toward the Atlantic coast and St. Flagler and St Johns counties have the highest chances of showers Sunday afternoon.
A low pressure system looks to track across southern Canada sweeping a cold front through the central US. The higher precipitation chances (>30%) still look to hold mainly east of the Mississippi River. Expecting rain as the main precipitation type with above freezing temperatures, but cannot rule out some light snow to mix in at times for areas across north central Wisconsin.
High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 50s, about 8 to 12 degrees above normal values. Tonight, a quick-moving H5 trough will move through the Great Lakes region. High pressure will then settle over the region during the overnight hours, bringing calm winds and allowing temperatures to fall into the lower 30s. On Monday, ridging will quickly build back over the region from the west, and southerly flow will again increase.
Discussion: Upper level trough will move across the area, bringing increased cloud cover to East TN.
The weak cold front continues to slowly sag southward, giving us some nice northerly winds.
High pressure will prevail across the intermountain west bringing above normal temperatures and clear conditions this weekend. A weak low pressure system will approach the area Sunday night, resulting in breezy to windy conditions for Sunday and Monday.
Southwesterly flow across the area today, out ahead of an approaching weak front and upper trough. Tonight/this evening, the cold front and upper trough will swing through the area. Areas of light rain, or more likely, drizzle can be expected across parts of the lowlands, with areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle and light rain and snow showers across the northern mountains.