Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently most of the lower clouds and areas of fog are in central and eastern portions of the CWA. With high pressure and very light winds the ample moisture in the low levels continues to form into fog and produce light snow at times. Hi-res models have the high relative humidity values moving off to the east Saturday afternoon, so we should see a break from the fog.
Otherwise high pressure will weaken over the area Saturday with a weak system pushing northeast through the lower MS Valley into the Ohio Valley. Highs will be in the low 30s, but with light and variable winds, it should still feel pretty nice out.
829 PM MST Fri Jan 6 2023 Weak and disorganized trof will be moving east into the central plains tonight. Showers should be ending by later tonight as the trof moves further away while weak subsidence moves in after 09z. SNOTELs and webcams suggest an inch or two so far over the high mountains.
245 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 High pressure will build over the area through the weekend.
1200 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 (Rest of today through Saturday) A cold front has pushed through South Florida today and drier and slightly cooler air has been filtering across the region this morning and afternoon.
Cooler and drier air will move into the region behind the passage of the associated cold front, along with an increase in the north to northwesterly winds.
1212 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 The upper trough continues to move east of the Great Lakes into tonight, while a ridge builds in from the Northern Plains.
(Today) High pressure that brought dry weather to the Tennessee Valley over the past few days was now located over the SE Coast, bringing a light southerly flow to the region. High temps today should warm into the lower 50s north to around 60 south of the Tennessee River.
529 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 Low pressure and an associated cold front will track through the region today into early Sunday with numerous showers.
552 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 (Today) High pressure that brought dry weather to the Tennessee Valley over the past few days was now located over the SE Coast, bringing a light southerly flow to the region. High temps today should warm into the lower 50s north to around 60 south of the Tennessee River.
510 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 (Today through Sunday) A slow moving low pressure system from the Plains will bring showers today through Sunday. As the low pressure moves closer tonight and crosses the area on Sunday, deeper moisture will be drawn into the system. Otherwise, highs today and Sunday will be mainly in the lower 50s with lows mostly lower 40s. (Sunday Night through next Saturday) by Sunday night, the low pressure system will have moved east, and cooler, drier air will be moving in with northwest winds.
537 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Infrared satellite imagery shows the weak cold front pushing towards the I-10 corridor this morning and will continue southward to the Big Bend by sunrise. This afternoon will be about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday thanks to the front though highs in the upper 50s to low 60s is still above average for early January.
High pressure will move across Utah and southwest Wyoming today.
A bank of dense freezing fog has formed from south central MN northwest along the Buffalo Ridge to SD.
Warm frontal precip is falling in the northern half of the CWA this morning and snow will develop in the Western Plumas mountains above 4500 feet. Precip and wind ramp up tonight as associated cold front moves inland. Wind advisory in effect for the lower elevations with gusts 40 to 50 mph possible in the Central Valley and neighboring foothills. Associated upper trough moves through Sunday with precip turning showery.
531 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 The thick blanket of cloud cover has helped to keep morning temps elevated across the region, and updated morning low to reflect these warmer readings. Key Messages: * Cloudy and cooler today, with a few flurries possible through the late morning hours.
A high pressure ridge will build from the north- central United States late today through Sunday morning. Later on Sunday, the ridge should exit eastward. Simultaneously, a trough overspreads our region from the south and west in association with a weak low moving generally east- northeastward in vicinity of the Ohio Valley. Weak high pressure will build in tonight but the cloud cover will start increasing again in response to a weak area of low pressure tracking through the Lower Ohio Valley on Sunday. We'll see dry and quiet weather through the rest of the short term period as high pressure builds to the south. Temperatures will be slightly above normal for early January, reaching the lower 40s for highs and overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s.
An upper level ridge passes eastward across The Treasure State, favoring dry weather through most of the day, tomorrow, when the ridge quickly exits the region to the east, and the next upper level trof rotates toward the area from the west. Expect periods of breezy to gusty southwesterly winds trailing the ridge, and on the leading edge of the approaching upper level trof.
A cooler, near average day for early January is expected today. Northerly winds and the surface and in the lower levels will usher in a cooler airmass today.
641 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 (Today through Sunday) Early morning analysis shows a frontal boundary to our south stretching from central Cuba over to the Bahamas, and high pressure over the deep south US. This is resulting in continued northerly flow across South Florida, bringing with it cooler air with upper 40s around the lake, 50s over the interior, and lower 60s near the east coast.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) Infrared satellite imagery shows the weak cold front pushing towards the I-10 corridor this morning and will continue southward to the Big Bend by sunrise. This afternoon will be about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday thanks to the front though highs in the upper 50s to low 60s is still above average for early January.
This morning has patchy freezing fog in the valleys of eastern NV.
At the surface, high pressure is moving away from the area to the east, with weak ridging aloft. Moisture increases to our west, as a warm front lifts northward, becoming established across the Tennessee Valley. Lows will be in the lower 40s to lower 50s. A cold front will push into Central Alabama early Sunday, with shower coverage expanding southeastward through the morning.
421 AM MST Sat Jan 7 2023 Scattered flurries will continue through the overnight in northern areas, but radar trends already show weakening as the upper trough axis begins to pull away.
A ridge remains firmly in place over the northern Rockies this weekend. Tonight some thicker clouds are making it over the ridge and interfering with the valley fog, mainly in northwest Montana.
436 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 Low pressure and an associated cold front will track through the region today into early Sunday with numerous showers.
Moisture depths are comfortably below the DGZ now, with temperatures sitting just above or at the freezing mark. Pockets of drizzle to freezing drizzle will be possible under this setup leading into the late morning hours. Road impacts with any observed precipitation are on the lower side. Road temperatures will likely hold just above freezing given the gradual come down from highs in the mid to upper 30s yesterday afternoon. Any freezing drizzle that may manifest would be isolated and confined to mainly bridges and overpasses given the influence of air temperatures around freezing. Otherwise, quasi-zonal mid-level flow fills in through the midweek period that will maintain the stretch of above normal temperatures as slightly warmer temperatures from the Plains fills in over the Great Lakes.
There is more steady light snow over the high mountains currently. The cloud cover in place is keeping the temperatures warmer tonight compared to the last few nights. Models have northeasterly flow aloft increasing a bit as an upper ridge axis moves into the CWA from the west through the day today. The ridge axis is over eastern Colorado through the night tonight with zonal flow aloft. The low level winds should be a mix of normal diurnal patterns and downsloping both today and tonight. Will keep some lingering pops for snow in the high mountains this morning only.
Have a wonderful Saturday! (Today through Sunday) Early morning analysis shows a frontal boundary to our south stretching from central Cuba over to the Bahamas, and high pressure over the deep south US. This is resulting in continued northerly flow across South Florida, bringing with it cooler air with upper 40s around the lake, 50s over the interior, and lower 60s near the east coast.
520 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 High pressure will build over the area through the weekend.
940 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 High pressure will keep the region seasonable and dry through Sunday.
An upper level ridge passes eastward across The Treasure State, favoring dry weather through most of the weekend. Tomorrow, the ridge quickly exits the region to the east, and the next upper level trof rotates toward the area from the west. Winds are forecast southwesterly on the trailing the ridge/the leading edge of the approaching upper level trof.
338 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 Key Messages: * Cloudy and cooler today, with a few flurries possible through the late morning hours.
Upper ridge axis moves over the CWA around 00Z this afternoon.
- Moldan 1030 AM MST Sat Jan 7 2023 (07/18Z TAF Period) VFR conditions are expected for the duration of this forecast period at all airfields except KHLN where LIFR conditions continue through the rest of today into tomorrow morning with freezing fog and low ceiling/vertical visibility. An upper level ridge passes eastward across The Treasure State, favoring dry weather through most of the weekend. Tomorrow, the ridge quickly exits the region to the east, and the next upper level trof rotates toward the area from the west. Winds are forecast southwesterly on the trailing the ridge/the leading edge of the approaching upper level trof.
Overall mid level ridging prevails with the southern stream system staying well to our south. As high pressure at the surface works into the area and then slides to our south into Sunday we should start to see a waa regime pick up from the west though the better push comes beyond this period.
Through Sunday, the ridge axis will move over the state with 850mb temperatures of 3 to 5 degrees C. A mild change in temperatures accompany each front, with the warmer days seeing highs in the 20s and 30s and the cooler in the teens and 20s.
(Tonight through Sunday night) A weak cold front slowly works into the CWA tonight, potentially through Zapata, Jim Hogg, and western Starr counties by midnight before inching east. POPs may be running a little high, especially post fropa, with guidance building back the chance of showers along the coast in the wake of the front Sunday night with a weak coastal trough of low pressure. Sunday highs reach the low to mid 70s just ahead of the front in the mid to lower valley, with upper 60s behind.
1008 AM MST Sat Jan 7 2023 Scattered flurries will continue through the overnight in northern areas, but radar trends already show weakening as the upper trough axis begins to pull away.
1053 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 Low-level 850mb SW flow ahead of a trough across AR will continue to result in weak isentropic lift across the area today with cloud cover and light rain. Even as weak upper ridging is present across the Southern Appalachians, temperatures will be near normal today with abundant cloud cover across the area lowering expected max temperatures.
(This evening through Sunday) Cool surface ridging continued to build south this afternoon on light north winds. As clouds clear, the axis of surface ridging will shift across our domain and set the stage for healthy radiational cooling. Nudged NBM's minT a bit lower across the board given the favorable pattern and cooler MOS numbers.
1223 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 High pressure will keep the region seasonable and dry through Sunday.
1124 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 (Today through Sunday) A slow moving low pressure system from the Plains will bring showers today through Sunday. As the low pressure moves closer tonight and crosses the area on Sunday, deeper moisture will be drawn into the system. Otherwise, highs today and Sunday will be mainly in the lower 50s with lows mostly lower 40s. (Sunday Night through next Saturday) by Sunday night, the low pressure system will have moved east, and cooler, drier air will be moving in with northwest winds.
(Through tonight ) Despite passage of cold front, temperatures are rather mild this afternoon with most cloud cover confined to far northeast OK and northwest AR.
Skies are sunny, with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s and low humidity. High pressure initially near the Atlantic Bight will slide east as a low pressure system ejects northeast across the southern Appalachians and the Carolinas. Behind the departing low pressure system, high pressure will retake the Southeast US with a return to north to northeast breezes, not quite as strong as the last 24 hours.
Dense fog continues in the Lower Treasure Valley of Oregon and areas nearby, but has mostly ended across the Lower Treasure Valley of Idaho and over parts of Malheur County outside the valley. Otherwise, skies were cloudy or mostly cloudy as moisture streams in ahead of an approaching upper level trough.
Current surface analysis reveals high pressure centered just to our east, over eastern TN/western NC. Overall, dry weather is expected for today with temperatures warming a bit more than yesterday, topping out in the lower to mid 80s for most. Similarly, overnight lows into Sunday morning will run around 10 degrees warmer than this morning, in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Cut off ridging continues over western Canada while a cut off low is redeveloping across SOCAL. KUDX radar shows a small scale low pressure just north of the radar moving westward, which will bring rain to the Black Hills area early this morning. Forcing along the front should also bring showers and thunderstorms southeastward toward the Pine Ridge Reservation into south central SD.
The main story, however, will be the advection of Gulf moisture back into the area later today as seen by dewpoints which will creep back into the lower 60s by this afternoon.
The combination of a southward moving cold front and the energy coming eastward out of Colorado should lead to a few clusters of southeastward moving thunderstorms. Breezy northerly winds can be expected behind the cold front on Sunday.
Upper level closed low moves into the area later with a cold front approaching the area. This low and boundary will drive the weather in the short term. The diving wave and upper level low will bring some better BL moisture into the western CWA. However, as the low closes off, the better moisture advection should shut off. Cooler air and clouds will keep temps from rising much above the low 70s. Cool start to the week as upper level low stays in place. Guidance diverges with momentum field forecast as blocking pattern still affects main flow. Discussion: Upper level low will keep the area cooler to start the week.
As such, storms on Sunday should be mostly isolated and confined to the higher terrain.
Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. In the mid to upper levels, a weak negatively tilted trough is in place across the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys with the axis of this trough located over the west coast of Florida southeastward through the Florida Keys. Therefore, most of the forcing with this trough is to the east of the Florida Keys with most of any activity that develops today remaining over the Bahamas and eastern Cuba. At the surface, high pressure over the distant western North Atlantic extends a ridge westward into Cuba. From synopsis, High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic for the next several days, with a ridge extending westward through the Bahamas and the Florida Keys.
Mid-level ridging is parked over the area, with strong high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico.
Attention then turns to an upper low diving out of Canada into the upper Great Lakes region. This feature in conjunction with an impulse rotating around the low will push a cold front towards NE OK late tonight. Cooler temperatures behind the front will ensue tomorrow and continue for the next several days.
Additionally, short range guidance is develops an MCV out of that convective complex over Kansas, and this MCV locally amplifies the mid and upper pattern to produce weak short wave ridging over central and eastern Missouri late this morning into early afternoon. This short wave ridging attenuates as the MCV drifts east, but initially it should serve to produce localized subsidence which will further suppress convection until the ridging weakens. However, the long wave trough over the U. Moisture will deepen ahead of the trough and its associated surface front overnight, and P-wats jump to around 1. The trough axis shifts southeast on Sunday, pushing a cold front through Missouri and Illinois during the day.
A secondary, backdoor cold front/upper trough will entrain much drier air in aloft overnight, cutting off rain by midnight north of I-90 and within a few hours after for areas further south. SUNDAY: Expect a cooler, dry day with much lower humidity levels and highs only reaching the 70s. Warmer in central South Dakota (upper 70s) for locations closer to the upper ridge building east, vs cooler (low to mid 70s) near and east of the I-29 corridor.
This band of clouds delineates the cold front that will move through the cwa during the next 24 hours. Low pressure in Missouri will move northeast and cause more showers to develop Sunday as it moves toward Cleveland.
We are in a stagnant pattern where an upper low pressure system in California and southwest U.
and Sunday A cold front will slowly sink south today, bringing cooler temperatures along with showers and thunderstorms to the region. Highs today will range from around 80 across central and east-central Wisconsin given the later arrival of the cold front with highs in the 60s and 70s across north-central Wisconsin given the front will track through that area this morning. Sunday will be a much cooler day behind the departing front, as daytime highs only rise into the 60s despite some sunshine.
Discussion: A deepening trough over the Mississippi River Valley will trek eastward overnight. Ahead of the trough, benign weather will occur tonight. This wave will occur before the main trough farther northwest.
310 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 (Rest of today through Sunday) A mid-level longwave trough remains over the eastern United States while a surface boundary lingers across north central Florida. Some additional cloud cover could help keep temperatures a degree or two cooler but heat index values will hit the triple digits across most of the area thanks to the increased dewpoints.
Key Messages - Isolated convection this afternoon increases in coverage this evening and overnight as a cold front approaches from the north.
However, given the possibility of outflow boundaries from last nights thunderstorms and maybe some differential heating around the higher rainfall amounts in parts of Wallace, Greeley and Wichita counties, we could see a few thunderstorms.
Low pressure over the Nebraska-Iowa state line will move east through tonight, arriving over southern IL Sunday morning.
317 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Upper level low pressure near James Bay will build/expand quickly south and southwest within overall upper trough axis with the mean low position shifting into the northern Great Lakes by Sunday.
A mid level disturbance, currently over the Panhandle region is expected to weaken the ridge a bit and track southeast into central Texas by this evening. The thermal ridge will remain strong again today, with above normal temperatures expected.
208 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 High pressure provides continued dry weather today, but with slightly warmer temperatures.
A cold front has slowed its movement south, briefly stalling over central and east-central WI this afternoon. Low temperatures will range from the low 40s to low 50s. Cooler and drier conditions are expected behind the departing front, with highs in the 60s. If may feel even cooler due to the continued breezy northeast winds, gusting to 20 mph.
The upper level low to our south will continue to slowly move east, bringing pushes of showers and thunderstorms to the region.
A Beach Hazards statement is in effect to cover the strong winds and higher waves and thus the higher rip current potential with the front this afternoon. With skies clearing tonight and a fair amount of dry air aloft with decreasing winds, I would not be surprised to see some frost in the typical cold spots with the caveat that mainly the rural areas east of Duluth will be affected as the upper level low just brushes the eastern side of our forecast area.
This helps to sweep much of the low level moisture well off to our east this afternoon with the dryline surging towards San Angelo. The southern extent of the dryline stays hung up across the lower Trans Pecos, where a stray shower or storm is possible this afternoon. Outside of this, the short term is dry as upper ridging builds in on Sunday. Midland Int'l saw its first 100 degree day of the year yesterday and unfortunately, more look to be on the way as upper level ridging continues to favor above average temperatures.
An associated warm front will lift northward through the region late this afternoon into tonight. A prefrontal trough will pass through the region early Sunday morning, kicking off more scattered showers and thunderstorms. A better chance of organized convection will arrive with the trailing surface cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The additional convection will develop as the cold front approaches from the northwest.
For the remainder of the day today, a mix of mid-high clouds associated with ample mid-level moisture and low clouds under a deep stable marine layer look to persist largely into Sunday morning, all thanks to an upper low situated about 240 miles off the central coast. Pockets of cold air wrapping around the low contributing to a relatively unstable airmass above the marine layer may contribute to another round of showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning, though the chance for thunder remains low (~20%). Elsewhere Sunday morning, the low will gradually deepen the marine layer overnight, contributing to pockets of drizzle along coastal locations Sunday morning.
The combination of the high temperatures and dewpoints generally ranging in the 70s will result in areawide heat indices reaching 105 to 109 degrees this afternoon, and an SPS has been issued. After another warm and humid overnight period tonight with lows in the 70s to near 80, Sunday is shaping to be even warmer as ridging rebuilds aloft over the area with a northwesterly flow increasing subsidence. If you are planning any outdoor activities this weekend, make sure to drink plenty of water, wear light-colored and loose clothing, sunscreen, and try to conduct outdoor activities early in the morning or late in the day when temperatures are cooler.
Surface flow remains light and relatively dry as we start out the weekend, but will be watching short wave trough drop out of central Canada into western Great Lakes.
We are still in the same pattern with high pressure ridging blocking systems moving east. As a result we remain under the upper level trough with upper level lows moving directly over us periodically. The next upper level low is located just off the central coast of California. We continue to get moisture in southerly flow ahead of this upper level low.
A cold front will move through the region Sunday morning and afternoon, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area.