Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
721 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023 (Through Tonight) Temperatures will be cold tonight, with areas in southeast Georgia falling to just above freezing.
Precipitation will creep northwards this morning into the Mission Valley and northwest Montana east of about Highway 93 and south of about Highway 2 to include the Highway 83 corridor and Seeley Lake. Decreasing temperatures this morning will contribute to freezing road surfaces for this morningâs commute. Snowfall rates will taper off today after about midday as moisture shifts east with the passing upper level trough. Gusty westerly winds will continue through the afternoon, especially in the higher terrain across the entire Northern Rockies. On Thursday, the trough will have vacated western Montana and an upper level ridge will build in its place. The ridge looks to remain in place into the weekend.
139 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Strong low pressure curling into the New England coast will continue to produce snow across the region overnight.
Surface temperatures getting above freezing today will produce mixed perception during the day before switching over to snow during the evening and overnight hours.
(This evening through Wednesday) A cold high pressure ridge centered over the upper MS river valley will push southeast over the next 24 to 36 hours. This ridge will become centered over TN/GA/AL Wed afternoon with dry conditions and clear skies continuing through the short term. This ridge will also bring in some cooler temps with lows Tonight and Wed night expected in the 20s ands 30s. The ridge will continue to move SE pushing off the GA/SC coast Thu morning, which will allow the next frontal system to move into the area going into the extended periods.
High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest overnight providing good radiational cooling conditions to the point where most of the TN Valley will see a hard freeze (temps below 28 degrees). Temperatures are in the upper 30s at this hour which is 1-3 degrees cooler than the hourly grids. Expecting lows to fall into the lower 20s but with this trend, wouldn't rule out them being a tad cooler.
A few sprinkles or light showers have already developed over the Gulf and could shift onshore through the rest of the morning, although drier air in the low levels should prevent any heavier convection from forming.
Warmer Today and Thursday with breezy southerly winds.
Cool and dry conditions remain in place for the rest of the day until a cold front approaches tomorrow morning.
110 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 High pressure will prevail through Thursday, then move offshore.
Through the day the ridge axis will shift eastward and by later in the afternoon a south to southwest wind will pick up.
A cold front will move across the region Thursday bringing widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms into the forecast. Temperatures cool due to the cold frontal passage and we will dry out for the weekend.
1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 (This evening through Thursday) To begin the period, high pressure will continue to promote calm and drier conditions tonight into Wednesday. As we approach Thursday morning, a trough from the Rockies dives down into the area bringing the chance of showers and thunderstorms. For the most part, severe weather chances are expected to remain highest for portions of southwestern AR where instability will be the highest. Additionally, dewpoints could creep into the lower 60s across portions of southern AR. Freezing temperatures will once again be a concern tonight with a freeze warning in effect for much of central and northern AR through tomorrow morning.
This will help to keep minimums up warmer than what we saw this morning. Most, if not all the area should remain above freezing tonight as the stiff southerly winds prevail through the overnight period. Have retained the lower dewpoint solution in anticipation of eventual mixing expected across the far W/SW zones. Beyond Thursday, cool high pressure will prevail across the FA for the rest of the business week and into the weekend. The lee trof will deepen further, resulting in a downslope SW wind for a large portion of the FA. Consequently, the weather pattern will be windier and warmer.
345 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 A ridge of high pressure will move southeast away from the region and allow mild air to spread back over the area. The center of a ridge of high pressure was over the Ohio River Valley early this morning. Return flow will continue tonight and will help keep temperatures above freezing. A strong upper level trof of Pacific origin in the southern stream will move east Thursday as energy from the northern stream drops south and joins this system, developing a deep upper low in the vicinity of the Upper Great Lakes.
1204 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Clouds and snow chances will continue to diminish as high pressure advances into the region from the west.
These winds along with warmer temperatures will raise grassland fire spread rates especially northwest of Interstate 44 where recent rainfall has been less.
Ridging will build subtly throughout the day, and the aforementioned lee cyclone will deepen across the central Plains. The deepening of the surface cyclone will foster a tightened pressure gradient and associated gusty southerly winds throughout the day and overnight. Clouds will generally move in from the west this evening, helping keep the overnight lows a little warmer than what guidance suggests. A cold front could start to creep into northwestern Oklahoma by sunrise.
Rain chances return on Thursday night with the arrival of another low pressure system and cold front. High pressure builds in from the northwest this evening into the overnight. High pressure remains overhead on Wednesday allowing for light southwesterly winds and mostly clear skies. Southwesterly flow strengthens as the high moves east. Forecast lows are near freezing. It will continue to warm up on Thursday as high pressure pushes off to the east and a low pressure system and cold front organize over the Plains. Under southerly flow, highs will range from the lower 50s northwest to near 60 southeast.
* Much cooler conditions Thursday night into the weekend. Have sided toward warmer side of guidance, roughly ~70th percentile. 00Z models have slowed moisture return ahead of a strong cold front moving through the region Thursday afternoon. This could allow temperatures to warm into the 50s if not the lower 60s in a few locations for a short tie ahead of the approaching front. Precipitation behind the cold front appears to be fairly limited as atmospheric column quickly dries out from top down; however, ECMWF keeps small window of a few hours for the potential for snow.
Low amplitude ridging will slide off to the east today with upper level winds beginning to back to the southwest in advance of the next short wave trough. This next short wave trough moving across the Intermountain West later day will induce strong lee surface cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado.
Models in good agreement shifting a trough across the region today and tonight. HREF MUCAPE of 500-750 J/KG progged within the lower CRV and Mohave County late this afternoon and evening. As the trough shifts further east into Arizona, thunderstorms will exit Mohave County late this evening with a few showers potentially lingering into early Thursday morning.
1249 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Highs today are expected to be similar to yesterday as easterly surface flow ushers in some of the cooler air from the previous system. An approaching weak upper ridge currently over New Mexico will shift winds more southeasterly this evening and cloud cover will increase, resulting in warmer overnight temperatures in the 40s and 50s. As the ridge axis moves into Central Texas Wednesday afternoon, southerly surface flow increases and temperatures look to warm to the 70s and 80s by the afternoon. Ample cloud cover and elevated winds overnight will keep temperatures 15 degrees above normal in the low to mid 50s.
208 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 The storm off the coast will move farther away and allow high pressure to drifts by to our south tonight and early Thursday.
Today will be a transitional day for the region as high pressure remain in control and upper level ridging starts to nose eastward over the Central Gulf Coast. Temperatures will be on the way up (or at least warmer than the last couple of days) with most locations reaching the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. the warmer temps should be over the western tier. Tonight, high pressure will continue to move east allowing for a surface return flow to develop across the region. This will allow low level moisture to gradually increase and should also help keep the overnight temps a bit warmer as well.
1158 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023 Stretch of benign weather will exist through Wednesday as high pressure tracking across the Ohio valley maintains influence. Another quiet day is then on tap for Wednesday as the ridge axis shifts into the Great Lakes. At the surface this is reflected by more seasonable daytime highs in the low 40s.
1144 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 After another cool night with temperatures below freezing, the rest of the week will be windy.
1217 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Modest upper level ridging and associated subsidence will transit quickly overhead tonight, with flow aloft gradually backing on Wednesday ahead of broad upper troughing over the Pacific coast. Cloud cover should diminish by about midday as drier WSW flow erodes the top of the low level moist layer, with breezy conditions expected during the afternoon hours as mixing heights ascend above 700mb, especially on the Caprock.
To the west a Pacific Trough is pulling into the flow and is expected to amplify once it taps into Arctic air on the plains of Canada. Behind this trough a ridge is rapidly developing over the Gulf of Alaska.
High pressure settles in across the region today and tonight for continued cool conditions. High pressure will build into the region today, shifting east of the Appalachians tonight.
Surface and aloft high pressure influences will shift eastward as today through Thursday progresses, but most locations will stay dry through Thursday afternoon. Shower chances however will return to far northwestern mid state locations Thursday afternoon ahead of approaching surface frontal system and associated upper level troughing. As for tonight, some locations especially east of I-65 Corridor, could experience temperatures around freezing.
226 AM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis shifting east of the Plains with advancing western CONUS trof. Some light precip will develop in the west later this afternoon as northern stream trof moves into the Northern Rockies. Cold front will finally sweep through the region tonight as northern stream pushes into the Northern Plains. Rain will change to snow this evening, with some low probabilities for a bit of freezing rain in south central SD.
* Cold front with gusty north winds Wednesday night and Thursday. These winds are also contributing to temperatures warming up across the area with highs expected to range from the lower 50s to lower 60s. An upper trough will be over the mountains across the western part of the country on Wednesday. A cold front associated with the upper trough approaching from the west will come racing into Nebraska and Kansas Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Precipitation is expected to develop on Thursday as the upper trough begins to move over the region.
240 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 06Z surface data has high pressure from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley while a storm system organizes in Colorado. Quiet, dry, breezy and much warmer conditions will be seen today as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. Breezy conditions will be seen across the area Thursday morning but winds will decrease in the afternoon during the passage of the low center. Temperatures will be above normal on Thursday in spite of the clouds and precipitation but somewhat cooler than Wednesday. Thursday night the strong cold front from the storm system sweeps through the area. Winds will increase significantly behind the cold front as much colder air moves into the area.
401 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 High pressure will be overhead today then shift to the East Coast on Thursday.
On the immediate back side of the low, strong north winds will develop, possibly reaching high wind warning criteria for a few hours from Garden City to Scott City over to Hays and Dighton between 3 and 6 am. In fact, some of the higher resolution model guidance indicates the potential for 55-60 mph winds for an hour or two.
Key Points: - Windy today and tomorrow - Light precipitation tonight into tomorrow morning - Cold this weekend A surface pressure gradient will steepen today as a trough deepens in the lee of the Rockies. A cold front swings through Thursday morning. The latest model runs also indicate much less precipitation than previously forecast with the center of the low pressure pushing further north and a good portion of central Kansas seeing a dry slot, minimizing pre-frontal precipitation. Behind this front, much cooler air will move in.
* Cold front with strong north winds tonight and Thursday.
523 AM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis shifting east of the Plains with advancing western CONUS trof. Some light precip will develop in the west later this afternoon as northern stream trof moves into the Northern Rockies. Cold front will finally sweep through the region tonight as northern stream pushes into the Northern Plains. Rain will change to snow this evening, with some low probabilities for a bit of freezing rain in south central SD.
507 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Building high pressure will return dry, quiet conditions today and tomorrow.
06Z surface data has high pressure from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley while a storm system organizes in Colorado. Quiet, dry, breezy and much warmer conditions will be seen today as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. Breezy conditions will be seen across the area Thursday morning but winds will decrease in the afternoon during the passage of the low center. Temperatures will be above normal on Thursday in spite of the clouds and precipitation but somewhat cooler than Wednesday. Thursday night the strong cold front from the storm system sweeps through the area. Winds will increase significantly behind the cold front as much colder air moves into the area.
In general, conditions should dry out somewhat as an area of high pressure builds in place. This could create a foggy morning, with freezing fog possible in some of the west side valleys this morning.
As such, temperatures at this hour are running at least 5 to 15 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago. Light winds and drier conditions will result in cooler mornings as well with the interior dropping into the 30s the next few mornings, yet widespread sub-freezing temperatures are not anticipated.
933 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Most locations across Middle TN have warmed above the freezing mark, and for the few that haven't, they will shortly. Surface and aloft high pressure influences will shift eastward as today through Thursday progresses, but most locations will stay dry through Thursday afternoon. Shower chances however will return to far northwestern mid state locations Thursday afternoon ahead of approaching surface frontal system and associated upper level troughing. As for tonight, some locations especially east of I-65 Corridor, could experience temperatures around freezing.
636 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 The storm off the coast will move farther away and allow high pressure to drift by to our south tonight and early Thursday.
The storm that battered parts of California will bring a chance of showers, gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and even a chance for a couple of thunderstorms to the area.
Water vapor shows upper ridge axis shifting east of the Plains with advancing western CONUS trof. Some light precip will develop in the west later this afternoon as northern stream trof moves into the Northern Rockies. Cold front will finally sweep through the region tonight as northern stream pushes into the Northern Plains. Rain will change to snow this evening, with some low probabilities for a bit of freezing rain in south central SD.
729 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Building high pressure will return dry, quiet conditions today and tomorrow.
704 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 A ridge of high pressure will move southeast away from the region and allow mild air to spread back over the area. The center of a ridge of high pressure was over the Ohio River Valley early this morning. Return flow will continue tonight and will help keep temperatures above freezing. A strong upper level trof of Pacific origin in the southern stream will move east Thursday as energy from the northern stream drops south and joins this system, developing a deep upper low in the vicinity of the Upper Great Lakes.
631 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Cool and dry conditions remain in place for the rest of the day until a cold front approaches tomorrow morning.
917 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 High pressure provides dry conditions today through much of Thursday. Rain chances return on Thursday night with the arrival of another low pressure system and cold front. Low level flow is light and variable through the morning as the high pressure slowly drifts south of the region. Low pressure advances eastward into the Midwest Wednesday evening, resulting in southerly flow through the overnight hours. Overnight temperatures are near normals for area climate sites, but can expect mid to upper 20s in the climatologically cooler locations despite the upper level clouds. Temperatures quickly warm up Thursday morning as low level flow accelerates ahead of the approaching low pressure. Southerly flow and moisture convergence ahead of an approaching cold front will lead to widespread rain across our area Thursday night.
702 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 High pressure will be overhead today then shift to the East Coast on Thursday.
528 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 The storm off the coast will move farther away and allow high pressure to drift by to our south tonight and early Thursday.
954 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 A cold and dry air mass will remain across the region through mid-week with freezing temperatures expected Thursday morning.
411 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Key Points: - Windy today and tomorrow - Light precipitation tonight into tomorrow morning - Cold this weekend A surface pressure gradient will steepen today as a trough deepens in the lee of the Rockies. A cold front swings through Thursday morning. The latest model runs also indicate much less precipitation than previously forecast with the center of the low pressure pushing further north and a good portion of central Kansas seeing a dry slot, minimizing pre-frontal precipitation. Behind this front, much cooler air will move in.
Some locations across southeast TN are starting to come back up above freezing, after dropping into the 20s overnight. High pressure settles in across the region today and tonight for continued cool conditions. High pressure will build into the region today, shifting east of the Appalachians tonight.
Upper level trough swinging through the area today, but with very little moisture to work with. In fact, the low- levels remain quite dry and we will have more in the way of mid to high level cloudiness, which should begin to thin from north to south during the afternoon. Slightly warmer along the coast and across the southern counties with low temps in the L-M50s, except U50s to around 60F immediate St. Upper trough swinging through but very little moisture in low-levels.
320 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 (Issued 320 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023) Tonight through Thursday night: As high pressure moves southeast from the Great Lakes Region into the eastern Ohio River Valley this afternoon, low pressure will be advancing from the Northern Plains. Temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 40s across southern Wisconsin as warm and moist air is being pulled into the state. Widespread rain is still expected Thursday as the low pressure system advances into the State.
Surface pressure continues to lower this afternoon across the high plains of Colorado. The lee trough is continuing to deepen as a result. A strong cold front will begin to traverse across the northern zones through early the overnight hours. Otherwise, tomorrow will be a much cooler day with highs running a 30 degrees or so compared to today. Overall amounts are expected to remain light, given the unfavorable moisture trajectory with the main synoptic fast moving trof. Cool high pressure will prevail for the end of the business week and for the weekend.
Models are beginning to move the low pressure system on Thursday back to the west. A light glaze of ice due to light freezing rain is possible in far western counties (Corson, Campbell, maybe McPherson). This possibility of freezing rain and sleet moves southeast towards the Watertown area through the evening and overnight hours. The snow moves in behind this line of freezing rain and sleet.
This is easily detected by looking at the satellite- derived total precipitable water product, which shows the boundary between the warm, moist air to the south and the relatively cooler, drier air to the north now located in the very distant Straits of Florida.
310 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 The storm off the coast will move farther away and allow high pressure to drift by to our south tonight and early Thursday.
1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Most locations across Middle TN have warmed above the freezing mark, and for the few that haven't, they will shortly. Surface and aloft high pressure influences will shift eastward as today through Thursday progresses, but most locations will stay dry through Thursday afternoon. Shower chances however will return to far northwestern mid state locations Thursday afternoon ahead of approaching surface frontal system and associated upper level troughing. As for tonight, some locations especially east of I-65 Corridor, could experience temperatures around freezing.
1116 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 The storm off the coast will move farther away and allow high pressure to drift by to our south tonight and early Thursday.
Light snow showers or flurries associated with an upper trough will continue mainly over the higher elevations today. MVFR/IFR conditions in snow showers and areas of mountain obscuration this morning, mainly in the KJER/KTWF area, over the higher terrain south of the Snake River Valley, and in the West Central Idaho and Boise Mountains.
With cloud coverage increasing this afternoon, expect overcast skies by tonight as a low pressure system approaches from the Plains. This carves out a deep trough over the ern U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the eastern U. with a ridge over the western U. Ridging moves into the Rockies 12z Mon. Troughing moves onto the west coast 12z Tue and into the Rockies 12z Wed.
FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SUWANNEE Tonight will be a few degrees colder than last, with clear skies and calm winds, radiational cooling will promote temperatures dropping just at or below freezing in inland southeast Georgia.
123 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 High pressure will provide dry and quiet conditions through tomorrow, with warmer temperature on Thursday.
After a few light showers this morning, expect warmer and drier conditions for the remainder of the week as high pressure builds across the region.
351 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 The storm off the coast will move farther away and allow high pressure to drift by to our south tonight and early Thursday.
1254 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 A ridge of high pressure will move southeast away from the region and allow mild air to spread back over the area. The center of a ridge of high pressure was over the Ohio River Valley early this morning. Return flow will continue tonight and will help keep temperatures above freezing. A strong upper level trof of Pacific origin in the southern stream will move east Thursday as energy from the northern stream drops south and joins this system, developing a deep upper low in the vicinity of the Upper Great Lakes.