Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This afternoon through Monday Night) Not much has changed since this morning's update in regard to the position of the cold front. On the back side of this cold front, much cooler temperatures have been noted today with highs so far only in the 50's to low 60's under overcast, rainy skies. Ahead of the front, temperatures are much warmer in the 70's and even approaching 80 with more southerly winds.
Some low clouds and light snow showers are hanging on across favored higher terrain, with the Highway 550 corridor between Ridgway and Ouray seeing the most consistent activity. Freeze Warnings remain in effect from 10PM this evening through 10AM tomorrow morning for the I-70 corridor and the lower desert valleys of eastern Utah. Temperatures should begin to rebound by mid-morning, with tomorrow's highs expected to be around 5 degrees warmer than today.
Temperatures have begun to warm above freezing across Colorado Zone 007, including the cities of DeBeque, Silt, and Rifle. The cold front is currently located just south of I-70 and it will continue to drift southward today. The trough axis driving the front will track over the area this morning and cross the Divide this afternoon. The potential for moderate to heavy snowfall will persist along the cold front. Highs will be cooler today thanks to the new airmass. Temps begin to moderate tomorrow as the trough moves over the central US and ridging takes places along the West Coast. Tomorrow night is expected to be chilly once again, but slightly warmer than tonight. Over the next few days the expansive ridge out west gradually pushes eastward.
Low level WAA will develop overnight into the first part of Monday as the next strong area of low pressure moves down into the northern plains out of Canada. This system's cold frontal passage is currently progged to sweep southward through the CWA Monday afternoon and evening. Sitting in the favorable southwestern (subsidence) quadrant of this low pressure system in a developing moderately strong low level CAA event behind the cold fropa, sustained winds are expected to run up close to 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph at times for several hours Monday afternoon through Monday night. Other considerations for strong winds include a notable pressure rise behind the cold front, steep low level lapse rates and 0.
For the Monday and Monday evening snow event, the light snow should spread toward areas along the Canadian border by sunrise, the highway 2 corridor by mid to late morning, and the I-94 corridor by mid to late afternoon.
The cold front is currently located just south of I-70 and it will continue to drift southward today. The trough axis driving the front will track over the area this morning and cross the Divide this afternoon. The potential for moderate to heavy snowfall will persist along the cold front. Highs will be cooler today thanks to the new airmass. Temps begin to moderate tomorrow as the trough moves over the central US and ridging takes places along the West Coast. Tomorrow night is expected to be chilly once again, but slightly warmer than tonight. Over the next few days the expansive ridge out west gradually pushes eastward.
1044 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 The strongest cold front so far of this fall season continues to slowly but steadily march eastward across East Texas, extending from near Texarkana to Longview to Palestine. With the shallow surface frontal boundary now over most of northeast Texas as of this Sunday morning, parallel mid- to-upper level southwesterly flow will continue to focus overrunning precipitation over this area until enough surface ridging spills across the Great Plains to push the boundary across the rest of the area by tonight. /16/ (Monday Night through Sunday) Elevated precipitation lingering behind a cold front will be mainly confined to areas along and south of I-20 at the start of the long- term period on Monday night.
-Brief warm up in store Monday, with cooler temperatures and light snow returning to the forecast Monday evening.
Temperatures still remain on the chilly side, with highs across the state in the low 20s to low 30s. The warming trend continues throughout the upcoming week as high pressure builds in over the region.
1113 AM MDT Sun Oct 29 2023 Key Messages: - Isolated light snow showers today - Breezy northwesterly winds today and Monday - Trending seasonable through the week Upper trough axis extends from Hudson Bay southward into the southwestern US; further upstream a highly amplified ridge is building immediately off the west coast. Snow will taper off this afternoon as large- scale subsidence overspreads the region behind the upper trough axis.
(This evening through Monday Night) Today's cold front is near Conroe, and should move through the Houston Metro area over the next few hours, then push off the coastline from 7-10 PM (00z-03z). Overcast skies, light rain, gusty northerly winds and cooler conditions should settle in behind the front.
Temperatures will not escape the 30s this afternoon and lows in the low to mid 20s tonight.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper single digits to the mid teens, with the coldest temperatures occurring mainly over East-Central Colorado where the higher snow amounts fell.
A widespread freeze is expected tonight with nearly all locations expected to fall to freezing or lower.
Once this goes by to our east high pressure then settles into the forecast area overnight and on Monday. A hard freeze expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 20s at most locations.
108 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 The strongest cold front so far of this fall season continues to slowly but steadily march eastward across East Texas, extending from near Texarkana to Longview to Palestine. With the shallow surface frontal boundary now over most of northeast Texas as of this Sunday morning, parallel mid- to-upper level southwesterly flow will continue to focus overrunning precipitation over this area until enough surface ridging spills across the Great Plains to push the boundary across the rest of the area by tonight. /16/ (Monday Night through Sunday) Elevated precipitation lingering behind a cold front will be mainly confined to areas along and south of I-20 at the start of the long- term period on Monday night.
Skies will clear overnight, allowing temperatures to dip into the low to mid 20s over most inland areas of southern WI tonight.
A few instances of sleet mixed in continue in heavier convective elements across far northeast OK with a layer of sub-freezing air just above the sfc and beneath warm nose. Surface temps remain above freezing and will likely do so until precip finally moves out later this evening, so no issues expected at this time. Still a brief window later tonight in the higher elevations of northwest AR for sfc temps to reach freezing just before precip ends, and with stronger warm nose present farther east this could result in light freezing rain.
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 The chance for additional winter weather impacts has dropped to minimal as freezing drizzle has ended where temperatures remain in the upper 20s with not much more than a fine mist and daytime temperatures near 32 degrees not resulting in any icing problems. Showers and thunderstorms are currently (as of 4am) on a line from Brownfield to Dickens to Childress moving northeastward along a strong cold front. Temperatures will continue to fall through the morning and rain will gradually changeover to freezing rain as surface temperatures drop below freezing with temperatures aloft remaining above freezing. Freezing rain will gradually taper to freezing drizzle and end from northwest to southeast this afternoon/evening as high pressure developing over eastern Colorado will allow for more cold, dry air to push out the moisture.
An area of low pressure southeast of the Bahamas has a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 2 to 7 days as it tracks northwestward toward the Bahamas. By Monday evening, the upper ridging and high pressure pushes south and east of Florida as troughing and the next cold front approaches the area from the northwest.
Newest short term model runs are also trending toward the higher maximums so went ahead and raised max temps a few degrees as some breaks in the clouds are expected later this afternoon. The lingering flakes should taper off with more breaks in the clouds today as a cold front and high pressure system approaches out of Canada.
(This evening through Monday) Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain anchored across the Permian Basin to Rolling Plains downstream from a positively tilted upper level trough axis in an area of a mid level isentropic lift and upper level difluence, the lift unlocking elevated instability. However, as the main trough continues to move slowly eastward, this area of persistent lift will move to the east of the forecast area. Will have to watch one last area of lift associated directly with upper trough axis, but the air mass that it brings and acts on looks to be pretty well starved of moisture.
We have had the occasional shower passing through the Florida Keys today as moisture rounds between a retreating low leve ridge to our north and an approaching easterly undulation. Where the rain has not yet fallen, temperatures have risen into the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. The moisture associated with the incoming undulation will get pulled and stretched as it rounds the base of the retreating ridge.
South to southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots become light and variable this evening, then switch to the northwest at 5 to 10 knots Monday morning as a cold front moves into the area. Lows tonight range from the upper 50s/around 60 well inland to the lower 60s closer to the coast.
Temperatures have fallen into the mid to upper 30s across the Big Country and northwestern Concho Valley, and into the lower 40s in the Coleman, Brownwood, San Angelo and Brady areas. An upper trough extended from the upper Midwest southwest across the Four Corners area. With an upper trough still to our west, have a continuing chance for elevated convection into tonight. Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 30s for overnight lows across our area. Gusty north winds tonight will lower wind chill values into the lower to mid 20s across our area late tonight and early Monday morning. Highs are expected to range from the lower 40s across the southern half of the area, to the mid 40s north.
A Arctic cold front will move through the Midsouth this evening and overnight. No freezing or frozen precipitation is expected.
129 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 (Today and tonight) As of 4 AM, the cold front was moving south through the Concho Valley and Heartland.
Tonight: As the longwave trough moves east tonight, clouds will gradually clear.
Another clipper system then moves through Monday along with an associated cold front. This will bring more flurries and light snow to the area, with the higher probabilities in the central and east. Under this high will be cold overnight lows, possibly below zero in the west and some central areas.
137 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2023 Cold front sweeps across the area late tonight and early Monday, with showers and cooler weather in its wake. Showery weather will persist much of Monday behind the front, tapering off to light showers or drizzle across much of the lowlands as the day progresses, but persisting a little longer across the higher terrain in the northwesterly flow. Showers are expected to be ongoing as a cold front shifts out of the area on Monday.
146 PM MDT Sun Oct 29 2023 Key Messages: - Isolated light snow showers ending late aftn/early evening - Breezy to windy northwesterly winds Monday - Trending toward more seasonable temperatures Upper trough axis extends from Hudson Bay across the forecast area and then southward into the southwestern CONUS. A highly amplified upper ridge is building just off of the west coast. The upper trough and diurnal instability due to cold advection aloft have created steep lapse rates this afternoon, producing scattered to numerous light snow showers and flurries. The snow will taper off during the late aftn/early evening as synoptic scale subsidence overspreads the area behind the departing upper trough.
- Rain early today with a break during daytime Cold front continues to move eastward today. Light showers continue to stream from the southwest to the northeast across the lower peninsula. So while there is copious amounts of mid level moisture, which is a good indication of clouds, there will be enough dry air in the low levels to not allow for rain this afternoon and through the early evening. A deepening trough extending from across southern Canada through the intermountain west will swing through the midwest and the Great Lakes tonight into tomorrow.
549 PM MDT Sun Oct 29 2023 Key Messages: - Isolated light snow showers ending late aftn/early evening - Breezy to windy northwesterly winds Monday - Trending toward more seasonable temperatures Upper trough axis extends from Hudson Bay across the forecast area and then southward into the southwestern CONUS. A highly amplified upper ridge is building just off of the west coast. The upper trough and diurnal instability due to cold advection aloft have created steep lapse rates this afternoon, producing scattered to numerous light snow showers and flurries. The snow will taper off during the late aftn/early evening as synoptic scale subsidence overspreads the area behind the departing upper trough.
726 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 This evening, a cold front remained in place across northwest Middle Tennessee with showers located northwest of the boundary. Later tonight through Monday morning, the cold front will gain some momentum, spreading showers and the leading edge of much cooler air across all of Middle Tennessee.
Nwly winds and cold advection will slightly increase tnt into Mon AM, as the pressure gradient tightens a bit due to deepening low pressure over the Mid Atlantic States and the strong polar high over the high plains. Skies will clear overnight, allowing temperatures to dip into the low to mid 20s over most inland areas of southern WI tonight.
A dry northerly flow aloft will maintain the clear skies through Monday as a high-amplitude upper ridge off the coast moves inland.
Upper longwave trough of low pressure will continue swinging to the southeast this evening, with all models indicating that precipitation will end for all areas between 10 PM and midnight tonight, with the last activity found along the southern CO border. This will lead to some of the coldest temperatures of the season overnight tonight, with minimums forecast 5 to 15F above for most areas, and 5 above to 10 below for the higher terrain. Do not feel that the latest guidance took into consideration snow amounts, and decided to go on the cooler side for highs, with readings in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Northwest flow behind the departing system will give way to flat ridging for mid to late week.
631 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 (This afternoon through Monday Night) Not much has changed since this morning's update in regard to the position of the cold front. On the back side of this cold front, much cooler temperatures have been noted today with highs so far only in the 50's to low 60's under overcast, rainy skies. Ahead of the front, temperatures are much warmer in the 70's and even approaching 80 with more southerly winds.
Surface temps above freezing until after precip ends will limit any sleet that falls to be non impactful. The clearing line of cloud cover is beginning to nudge into north central Oklahoma and will continue to work eastward overnight tonight as the longwave trough axis pushes through the region. As skies clear from the west, temperatures will fall as well, with most places across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas falling below freezing by early Monday morning. Will leave the Freeze Warning as is for tonight, with the uncertainty of areas of far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas clearing in time to fall below freezing before sunrise tomorrow morning.
Could be a few snowflakes mixing in over the higher elevations near and north of U. Meanwhile at least partial clearing will take place over interior sections overnight with temps dipping to near below freezing. Dry weather is anticipated on Monday with brief period of sfc ridging and only shallow moisture in place. Could see some light southwest-flow lake effect snow showers developing late Monday night as moisture begins to increase ahead of incoming upper low.
927 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2023 Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will track south of Pennsylvania tonight into early Monday.
(Tonight) The well advertised cold front is on the doorstep of NW AL this Sun evening, as it crosses into mid TN/north MS. The front will gradually continue to move SE into the area overnight, with cooler air filtering into locations along/west of I-65.
A gradual warming trend will take hold over the region this week as high pressure builds back into the western US. The backside of the dry cold front has left some cold temperatures in it's wake, and as a result this forecaster has fully deployed their winter sweatshirt and sweater collection. Tomorrow's highs will be only a slight improvement on today's highs, up to 5 degrees warmer. Hang in there, we see some improvement with this ridge pattern moving in from the Pacific coast, and that will allow our temperatures to climb into midweek.
814 PM MDT Sun Oct 29 2023 An upper level ridge slowly building into the area will promote dry conditions early this week, along with gradually moderating temperatures.
634 PM MDT Sun Oct 29 2023 Evening Update: A back door cold front will move through eastern Montana and western North Dakota Monday afternoon.
612 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 (This evening through Monday) Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain anchored across the Permian Basin to Rolling Plains downstream from a positively tilted upper level trough axis in an area of a mid level isentropic lift and upper level difluence, the lift unlocking elevated instability. However, as the main trough continues to move slowly eastward, this area of persistent lift will move to the east of the forecast area. Will have to watch one last area of lift associated directly with upper trough axis, but the air mass that it brings and acts on looks to be pretty well starved of moisture.
While it is much slower than earlier forecast, this should still allow for below freezing temperatures, but may keep us above our lower to mid 20s levels currently forecast. Once this goes by to our east high pressure then settles into the forecast area overnight and on Monday. A hard freeze expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 20s at most locations.
An upper level ridge slowly building into the area will promote dry conditions early this week, along with gradually moderating temperatures.
High pressure remains in control over the Pacific Northwest.
High pressure will build into the region, bringing a gradual warming trend through most of the week.
(Today) Observed temperatures at midnight this evening will likely be todays high temperature as a strong cold front is approaching the area from the northwest.
238 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 * Dry weather expected over the next 7 days across the region * Colder below temperatures to start the week followed by a nice warming trend into the weekend Colder than normal temperatures and dry weather conditions will prevail this period as strong high pressure dominates over the region.
A weak cold front will move through the Panhandles Tuesday morning, but it will not have much of a colling affect as highs on Tuesday are expected to be the same to 8 degree warmer on Tuesday over today.
-Brief warm up in store Monday, with cooler temperatures and light snow returning to the forecast Monday evening. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Quiet conditions continue to prevail across the region, with latest observations showing west/northwest winds and temperatures in the low to mid 30s. As alluded to in the previous discussion, will then see an upper level trough over central Canada pivot southeastward across the Northern Great Plains by Monday evening, resulting in light snow showers across southwest Minnesota overnight. In addition to all this, expect winds to become quiet breezy during this time, with direction becoming more northwesterly in the wake of the advancing sfc cold front.
(Today through Tuesday) Big changes in store for Alabama today as a strong cold front pushes through the area. Behind the front, northwest winds at 10-15 mph will usher in much cooler air, with temperatures falling into the 50s for areas north of I-59 by mid afternoon. Temperatures will warm quickly south of the cold front, with readings climbing into 70s and lower 80s along and southeast of the I-85 corridor.
1112 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2023 Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will track south of Pennsylvania tonight into early Monday.
The deep trough is scouring moisture in W and central TX and will begin to amp up our coverage for us in the coming hours.
High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the area with rain-free and warm conditions continuing today. On Tuesday, winds across the local area will become northerly as and area of low pressure system moves across the Bahamas.
1140 PM MDT Sun Oct 29 2023 Aviation Section Updated An upper level ridge slowly building into the area will promote dry conditions early this week, along with gradually moderating temperatures.
(Today through Tuesday) A cold front is currently completing its transition through the BRO CWFA, and a few changes and additions have been made to the inherited hazards associated with the frontal passage. Next, churned and elevated seas created by the cold front passage will create a High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches until at least sunset Tuesday.
Behind the trough, cool daytime temperatures with highs around 10 degrees below normal are expected for today.
258 AM MDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Today and Tonight: Isolated snow showers are likely to continue today, mainly near the North Dakota border as a back door cold front swings in from eastern Saskatchewan. Also of note is patchy freezing fog early this morning evident on satellite microphysics that is focused over Valley county and extending into the Missouri River Valley to the east. One more frigid night for this time of year with some below zero readings will result tonight from the cold front, though limited by cloud cover especially toward the west.
A cold front moves through after midnight, shifting winds to the north/northwest with speeds generally 10 to 15 mph. impacts of Mondays night frontal passage impact high temperatures with readings in the upper 30s to middle 40s, coolest across the eastern 1/3 of the area where proximity to the cooler air resides.
Some low clouds and light snow showers are hanging on across favored higher terrain, with the Highway 550 corridor between Ridgway and Ouray seeing the most consistent activity. Freeze Warnings remain in effect from 10PM this evening through 10AM tomorrow morning for the I-70 corridor and the lower desert valleys of eastern Utah. Temperatures should begin to rebound by mid-morning, with tomorrow's highs expected to be around 5 degrees warmer than today. Models are in good agreement on the synoptic pattern Tuesday with long wave troughs over the Aleutian Island and the Hudson Bay areas, and a ridge in between moving inland off the Pacific Coast into the Great Basin.
Clear skies and light winds tonight will allow temperatures to fall into the teens across the northwestern South Plains into the low to mid 20s elsewhere.
1238 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) A cold front remains stalled over Srn/central AR this afternoon with another impressive 40 degree temp spread observed across the state -- from 40s in the NW to 80s in the SE. Meanwhile, upper troughing over the Wrn CONUS will gradually push E over the next couple days as an upper ridge centered over FL breaks down. This will finally give our cold front the boot with rain quickly ending NW to SE Mon morning into afternoon.