Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Rest of Today) High pressure is centered over much of the southeast CONUS this morning. Most guidance mixes the area up to above 925 mb, where temperatures are forecast to be between 15 and 17 degrees (a few degrees warmer than yesterday at that level). The end result with plenty of sunshine today should be temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 70s, except in the highest elevation (where highs around 70 degrees look more likely).
The low pressure system that brought our precipitation the past few days will keep moving southward into California, but we're not done with the rain.
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington NC 731 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023 High pressure will prevail through Friday.
238 PM MDT Thu May 4 2023 The forecast for rain showers and thunderstorms this weekend is complicated, with two colder low pressure centers converging over NE Montana. Initially as the ridge of warm high pressure today gets scrunched tonight and tomorrow, models are in fairly good agreement with chances for precip moving up into our CWA from the south and southwest.
Down at the surface, a high pressure over the Southeastern US continues to influence the local area, with PWATs generally remaining less than one inch through the afternoon. Moisture and warmer air will continue to surge into the area as a warm front lifts northward, bringing PWATs to nearly 2 inches especially over southeast Mississippi and southwestern Alabama by Friday afternoon.
High temperatures inland are reaching the lower 70s, with temperatures near the lake in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
(Through Friday) Forecast area will be beneath WNW flow aloft between western Atlantic upper trough and upper ridge over western Gulf Coast region.
A warm front will move through the area late tonight/early tomorrow morning increasing instability and deep layer shear across the region. Low temperatures tonight will be significantly warmer than last night as the front passes through with low temperature being 5-10 degrees warmer in the low to mid 60s. An upper ridge centered over Texas will shift eastward this weekend and heights build over the area. Southwesterly midlevel flow will advect moisture from the southeastern Pacific, while at the surface, high pressure to the east will turn surface winds southerly.
/Tonight through Thursday/ Key Messages: -- Active pattern taking over the forecast with ill-defined shower and storm chances -- Strong to severe storm chances possible this weekend -- Near if not above normal temperatures through the period Details: A blocking upper level pattern is shown on the upper air maps with troughs and closed lows over the West and East coasts with a ridge sandwiched in-between just west of Iowa. After days of northwesterly winds and yesterday more light and variable winds, winds today have been from a southerly direction as the upper level pattern turns control more to the West coast over the East coast trough and low.
The main focus through Friday will be a warm front to our south. The 850 mb warm front will move northeast into northeast Arkansas and west Tennessee on Friday afternoon. Thickening clouds and southeast winds will keep temps milder than last night, mainly in the lower to mid 50s. This impulse will support an increase in showers ahead of the warm front.
Issued by National Weather Service Caribou ME 328 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023 The stubborn upper low pressure system starts to relinquish its grip on the region tonight.
Did make a minor adjustment to temperatures for this afternoon, as they were a little on the high end of guidance. Otherwise warm temperatures and sunny skies is the continuing story for today! (Today through Friday) Broad longwave trough encompassing the eastern 1/3 of the country will continue east today and tomorrow. Upper level ridge will be build in across the middle of the country from the Gulf Coast all the way to the Northern Plains. Not a particularly large spread in forecast temps, however, NBM is on the warmer side of guidance and more plausible considering the placement of the ridge in relation to the CWA. Further south, however, GPT soundings stay too warm in the lower levels to support anything surface based, meaning strong winds not making it to the surface.
High pressure at the surface to continue to slowly shift east tonight into Friday. High pressure will continue to offer quiet weather on Friday. Midlevel ridging will build east across the region through the weekend as a warm front lifts north across the Ohio Valley.
- A warmer period of normal to slightly above normal temperatures is likely. We may finally see what's left of the western trough fully eject and work into the region toward the end of the period, bringing the potential for more prolonged and widespread precipitation.
The only hope for warmer overnight temperatures would be if cloud cover was more abundant than expected. The thicker clouds look to remain southwest of the forecast area with temperatures only reaching into the upper 50s vs the low 70s that are expected across central Indiana with the more diffuse cloud cover.
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 307 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Upper level low pressure will gradually push off the New England coast today allowing high pressure to build in from the Tennessee River Valley.
241 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Weak high pressure slowly builds in from the north tonight into Friday.
1251 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023 (Today through Friday) This AM, we have ridging present across E Conus. Satellite only shows some cirrus moving in through the NW flow, but the lower levels are dry and should remain so for another day today with light W-NW surface winds expected. The low level flow will turn around to very light/variable but going to ERLY tonight. A warm front will as a result push into the SW part of AL on Friday.
As the low moves out of the Great Basin in to the Rockies this evening, the convection will start to lift north through the central zones. The majority of the CAMs have weaker activity over the lower elevations late this evening into the early overnight hours.
High pressure then builds over the region for the weekend, bringing dry, mostly sunny and mild weather. Little change to the forecast tonight through Friday night as persistent upper low only slowly moves to the east of our region. Temperatures fall to the mid-upper 30s tonight with high temperatures on Friday slightly warmer than today with readings near the upper 50s.
Morning lows will generally be in the L60s inland, but onshore flow will keep coastal areas slightly warmer.
132 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Dry and warmer weather is expected into the first this weekend with highs into the 70s this weekend through the following workweek.
Clear skies will help temperatures drop down tonight lower than we saw this morning but it won't help keep temps from getting warmer than today with highs reaching up into the low 90s for many areas.
1235 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023 (Rest of Today) High pressure is centered over much of the southeast CONUS this morning. Most guidance mixes the area up to above 925 mb, where temperatures are forecast to be between 15 and 17 degrees (a few degrees warmer than yesterday at that level). The end result with plenty of sunshine today should be temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 70s, except in the highest elevation (where highs around 70 degrees look more likely).
1127 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Occasional showers this afternoon will be followed by clearing and warming into the weekend under high pressure. The upper low which has dictated the weather pattern over the area over the last week is finally offshore, and the area is embedded in a trough in wake of the low and ahead of a building Ohio Valley ridge. Overnight, the approach of an axis of high pressure will calm winds. Elevated dews and residual surface moisture from showers today will likely force fog for most of the lowlands. Because of both localized sub-freezing temperatures and fog concerns in eastern Tucker County, freezing fog remains possible, and even likely for elevations above 3500 feet.
That said, did follow the recent trend and lowered dewpoints from NBM, while also raising highs a few degrees and leaning towards warmer-end guidance. It's not really until Friday night that we see a northward push in the boundary as a wave of low pressure begins moving northeast.
138 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Dry high pressure moves off the East Coast as moisture increases from the south and west.
200 PM PDT Thu May 4 2023 An upper level low will move slowly inland across Central California, keeping a chance of precipitation over the region through the end of the week.
(This evening through Friday night) Beautiful weather conditions across the area this afternoon with most areas sitting in the low to mid 80s under sunny skies! Quiet conditions will linger into the evening and early tomorrow morning as we sit under the ridge. Temperatures in the short term will be quite warm given the ridging pattern, starting to feel a little summer-like with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s for most areas.
A surface warm front will work north tomorrow and push its way into SE OK where locations south of the boundary should see afternoon temps in the upper 80s, where 80-85 can be expected north and northeast of the boundary.
314 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023 Summary: Cooler by Lake Superior through the weekend with temperatures trending warmer overall.
Cloud cover should be less extensive than today, but still expect mostly cloudy skies to prevail for the afternoon, especially over the higher terrain. With a bit of sun and 925 mb temperatures a few degrees warmer than today, highs will top out in the mid 50s to around 60.
A developing warm front straddled from northwest to southeast across the highway 83 corridor will be the impetus for strong to severe storms. Initial development in the higher terrain surface convergence region of southeast CO, the HRRR and RRFS develop somewhat discrete convection along he CO/KS line as early as 21z / 3 pm, before storms fill in the gap to the east along the boundary, propagating east through the evening. Severe weather parameters are not the strongest however with HREF mean capes indicating a narrow corridor of 1000-1500 MLCAPE along and ahead of the warm front, the severe potential may increase with time through the early evening as low level shear parameters increase along the KS/Oklahoma line.
Lows will fall into the low-to-mid 50s on the Caprock and low 60s to the east. Gusty southwest winds up to 30 mph will lead to warmer temperatures on Friday.
Mostly clear skies expected tonight, which should then give way to some increasing high cloudiness Friday as ridge builds over the area and plume of high level moisture associated with the subtropical jet is able to spread north into the area. Guidance in good agreement on 925mb temps 2-3C warmer than today, so as long as there are some breaks in the high cloudiness, high temps tomorrow should be several degrees warmer than today.
Overnight temperatures will run cooler (mid-50s) across northern Oklahoma with warm and humid conditions (mid to upper-60s) expected across the Red River Valley. A pronounced thermal ridge is expected across southern Oklahoma into western-north Texas, yielding hot afternoon temperatures (in the upper-80s to mid-90s).
18z surface analysis showed high pressure stretching from Michigan into the southeast U. , a stationary front stretching across South Dakota into Minnesota, and a warm front draped from eastern Colorado into Oklahoma. The aforementioned high pressure that brought us this beautiful stretch of dry and mild weather is progged to get ushered to our east tonight, opening the door for strengthening southerly flow, increasing moisture/clouds, and chances of precipitation beginning late tonight into Friday morning. The aforementioned stationary front to our north is forecast to slowly drift south into our area behind the high.
Issued by National Weather Service Caribou ME 102 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Showers will continue becoming less frequent today and the stubborn upper low pressure system starts to relinquish its grip on the region.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge will be over the region today keeping the weather dry and warm. On Friday, upper troughs one from the west and one from the east will squeeze out the upper ridge over Montana and close it off to the north. This will bring a back door cold front into the area on Friday.
With this center of high pressure over eastern Kentucky, clouds are mostly nonexistent and temperatures have dropped into the low to mid-30s. High pressure will continue through the day today with slightly warmer temperatures in place but still below average for this time of year. Also, with the warm front, WAA will take place allowing for temperatures to climb back into the 70s for Friday.
The large omega blocking pattern that has sat over the central United States for the past few days has finally started to shift east. This weekend, the high will meander out into the Atlantic as it strengthens resulting in gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters.
A warm front will lift slowly northeast toward the Mid-South on Friday bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region starting late tonight and continuing into Friday.
Clear skies and dry conditions for the rest of Thursday and through the overnight hours as high pressure builds over the SE US. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid 50s for inland locations, while coastal areas will be a bit warmer and see temperatures in the 60s.
Instability is roughly a third of what it was yesterday at this time, as 5h low center is well offshore with a trailing 5h trough axis extending into PA. The lingering influence of upper level troughing over CPA will maintain this final round of scattered- numerous, diurnally-driven, passing rain showers through late afternoon. Model RH profiles support a mix of sun and cumulus with just an outside chance of an afternoon shower over the eastern edge of the forecast area associated with departing upper trough and lingering cool air aloft. Mixing to 850mb yields expected highs in the 55-60F range over the northern tier to the lower 60s in the south central and southeastern valleys.
Relative humidity values will fall into the low to mid 20s this afternoon (with some isolated locations west falling into the teens) with sustained easterly to northeasterly winds between 10 and 15 knots, gusting to 20 at times. With the lower subsidence across the region as the ridge axis arrives overhead, relative humidity values should be relatively higher in comparison to today. For the most part, clusters have solid agreement in strength of downstream ridging and upstream troughing, so the current PoPs pushing past 50% indicates this increasing confidence.
Tonight and Friday Synopsis: An upper level trough is positioned from Lake Superior to southern Manitoba. Meanwhile, a weak warm front is slowly dropping southeast across central and east-central WI early this afternoon. This warm front will stall across slightly further south than it's current position tonight before lifting slowly north on Friday. As the warm front stalls across central WI, a low level jet will develop this evening.
1231 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023 Upper-level ridging over the central CONUS will continue to deamplify as its axis moves east across the Plains. In the lower-levels, a warm front at the surface will develop today in eastern Kansas and extend southeast into Arkansas. The onset of showers and thunderstorms this evening has become later with each forecast, as the most abundant moisture and forcing appear to enter the Mid-Mississippi Valley after 06z Friday along the nose of the low-level jet. Otherwise, temperatures today will be warmer, landing in the 70s areawide despite increasing cloud cover through the day. Jaja Showers and thunderstorms will exit the CWA Friday night as the last upper-level vorticity max exits to the east and is replaced by ridging.
Water vapour depicted upper low spinning over CA with several pieces of energy ahead it it from the four corners into the northern Rockies/northern Plains.
A storm system lingering to the west will result in breezy afternoons and cooler temperatures through this weekend.
A large area of low pressure to our west will deliver gusty winds, cooler daytime temperatures, and a stray shower or thunderstorm through tomorrow. Temperatures and wind speeds will become more seasonable this weekend as the trough breaks down. Gusty southwest winds continue to batter northern Arizona ahead of a low pressure system to our west. These especially windy areas have been limited to the highest terrain so far, but we can expect similarly high winds to affect some downslope regions this afternoon. The California trough that has dictated so much of Arizona's weather lately is beginning to loosen its grip. This weekend marks a return to warmer weather for northern Arizona.
Low pressure circulating across south central Idaho is throwing moisture northward into the Northern Rockies. A mid level low pressure will soon after move into central Idaho Friday and bring a return to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the evening.
629 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Clearing is expected overnight and into the weekend with high pressure.
However, the low level airmass will need considerable modification to support any surface-based severe weather potential, and current guidance forecasts do not indicate this will happen. A warm front will move through the area late tonight/early tomorrow morning increasing instability and deep layer shear across the region. Low temperatures tonight will be significantly warmer than last night as the front passes through with low temperature being 5-10 degrees warmer in the low to mid 60s. An upper ridge centered over Texas will shift eastward this weekend and heights build over the area. Southwesterly midlevel flow will advect moisture from the southeastern Pacific, while at the surface, high pressure to the east will turn surface winds southerly.
The severe weather potential over the next 24 hours is limited at best given the weak instability north of the synoptic warm front.
736 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023 (Through Friday) Forecast area will be beneath WNW flow aloft between western Atlantic upper trough and upper ridge over western Gulf Coast region.
648 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023 A warm front will lift slowly northeast toward the Mid-South on Friday bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region starting late tonight and continuing into Friday.
1017 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Dry high pressure moves off the East Coast as moisture increases from the south and west.
After midnight, additional showers and thunderstorms may develop, focused across parts of east central Oklahoma and into west central Arkansas as the low level jet strengthens across south central into southeast Oklahoma. The main changes to the going forecast overnight have been to retool the POP/Wx grids to focus the highest rain and thunder chances farther south after midnight, as well as decreasing the QPF some north of I-40 by mixing in the short-term blended guidance to the previous forecast. A surface warm front will work north tomorrow and push its way into SE OK where locations south of the boundary should see afternoon temps in the upper 80s, where 80-85 can be expected north and northeast of the boundary.
744 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Dry high pressure moves off the East Coast as moisture increases from the south and west.
TFJ The forecast for rain showers and thunderstorms this weekend is complicated, with two colder low pressure centers converging over NE Montana. Initially as the ridge of warm high pressure today gets scrunched tonight and tomorrow, models are in fairly good agreement with chances for precip moving up into our CWA from the south and southwest.
A weakening upper level low exits to the southeast this afternoon, with wraparound precip tracking up the Central valley. Showers dissipate after midnight tonight as that low drifts over the Great Basin, meanwhile another trough approaches from the west. This next trough should bring widespread light precip by early Friday afternoon, slowly gaining in intensity into the evening.
High pressure will continue to offer quiet weather on Friday. Midlevel ridging will build east across the region through the weekend as a warm front lifts north across the Ohio Valley.
The water vapor satellite imagery this evening shows the main upper low center along the northern NV border. The low will remain nearly stationary overnight with the focus of precipitation development over Harney county and western Malheur county. Winds will remain breezy, with wind direction following the counterclockwise circulation of the low center. Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: E to SE 10-20 kt, becoming variable 15 to 25 kt as an upper low moves directly over the area by 06/00Z.
647 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023 An ongoing developing warm front across central Lake Michigan, an influx of mid level moisture and steep mid level lapse rates will support scattered to perhaps numerous showers through the night across central Michigan.
(Rest of tonight) A cold low pressure system that brought a chilly conditions this past weekend and earlier this week continued heading further to the east off of from the New England coast. This system departing has resulted in somewhat higher height values and lighter winds, and has brought slightly warmer conditions. Highs earlier today rose mostly into the low/mid 70s, still below normal highs that are around 80 this time of year. With colder air to the east, a warmer west/colder east trend should continue.
Although there are towering cumulus across the Northern Edwards Plateau and southwest Concho Valley, no updrafts of significance have been able to develop in those areas, likely because of the lower dewpoints and thus less CAPE.
A rather quiet evening is in store, though another lobe of energy will wrap around the low displaced to our west approach the Four Corners region by mid-morning.
545 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Dry high pressure moves off the East Coast as moisture increases from the south and west.
Dewpoints should remain relatively stagnant throughout the remainder of the evening and temperatures will drop to the mid 50's in our northernmost SE AL/SW GA counties to the low 60's in our FL counties. (Through Friday) Forecast area will be beneath WNW flow aloft between western Atlantic upper trough and upper ridge over western Gulf Coast region.
722 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Clear skies and dry conditions for the rest of Thursday and through the overnight hours as high pressure builds over the SE US. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid 50s for inland locations, while coastal areas will be a bit warmer and see temperatures in the 60s.
626 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023 (This evening through Friday night) Beautiful weather conditions across the area this afternoon with most areas sitting in the low to mid 80s under sunny skies! Quiet conditions will linger into the evening and early tomorrow morning as we sit under the ridge. Temperatures in the short term will be quite warm given the ridging pattern, starting to feel a little summer-like with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s for most areas.
Expect overnight lows to range broadly in the lower 70s with dew points pushing up into the mid to upper 60s. A modest ridge over the eastern United States will build southeastwards into the Atlantic overnight.
656 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023 (This afternoon through Friday Night) Upper ridging will try to build over the Mississippi and Tennessee river valleys tonight into Friday, but despite gradual H5 height rises the flow aloft will be quasi-zonal across TN through the period. Don't believe the ridge is strong enough to keep nocturnal convection completely at bay and some deterministic runs show another chance of an MCS developing somewhere nearby late Friday night. It seems the best chances would once again be closer to the TN/AL/MS border areas where the low level jet and will be stronger. Otherwise, expect tomorrow afternoon to be cooler, with any highs in the 70s being limited to the northeastern areas where rainfall and thicker cloud cover will move in last.