Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile, a surface centered north of Hispaniola and east of the Bahamas is associated with a deep trough through the mid and upper levels. Short Term Update - Surface winds will remain light out of the northeast to east through the overnight period as the weak ridge will remain straddled across the Florida Peninsula. Aloft, the Keys will remain on the dry western flank of the trough/low pressure system to our east. The somewhat more steady breeze should keep overnight lows in the upper 70s with dew points staying in the lower 70s. A weak ridge across Florida will maintain light northeast to easterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Quigley (Tonight through Sunday night) The cold front that brought showers and storms to the area overnight is just south of our area this afternoon with cooler temperatures from the mid 70s to mid 80s seen today. Development is expected to begin over the higher terrain in Mexico this evening before moving across the Rio Grande and over the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. Temperatures tonight will generally be in the 60s, with an even cooler day expected for tomorrow. Highs across much of the area will be in the 70s, possibly remaining in the 60s in the higher terrain of the Hill Country on Sunday.
954 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 Skies were clear across the region this evening with temperatures in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. The highest risk of dense fog will be in our eastern/southeastern counties in the valley locations. The upper trough axis, evident on water vapor imagery, is finally pushing through, which is ending the light rain across our SE CWA. High pressure prevails on Sunday, which looks to be a beautiful day with highs in the 70s, low humidity and sunny skies. Quiet weather is expected through the period as the upper pattern is generally characterized by ridging over the Plains region that will slowly progress eastward while troughing gradually deepens over both the East and West Coasts. At the surface, high pressure will maintain its influence over the region through much of the week.
455 PM MDT Sat May 20 2023 At the start of the short term period, the latest upper air RAP analysis shows that the CWA has a mostly westerly flow aloft being underneath a subtropical ridge with an upper air low over northwestern CO. On Sunday, forecast guidance shows the CWA having a mostly westerly flow aloft with an upper air ridge in the northwest, an upper air trough to the southwest, and an upper air low over western CO. Daytime highs look to range between the middle 70s and the lower 80s on Sunday with overnight lows being in the upper 40s to middle 50s range.
651 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 Showers will taper from west to east by early evening as a cold front crosses the Commonwealth. Regional radar loop at 2230Z shows a dwindling band of showers accompanying a cold front, which runs from KELM to just east of KAOO. Breaking clouds are already noted across the NW Mtns early this evening and this clearing trend should overspread the rest of the forecast area later this evening, as surface ridging and much drier air work in from the west. Min temps Sunday morning should range from the mid 40s over the Allegheny Plateau, to the low 50s in the Lower Susq Valley. Surface ridging and a dry northwest flow will yield mostly sunny and seasonable weather Sunday.
824 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 A cold front will move into the region tonight with another round of showers expected.
655 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Rain is ending from west to east across Middle Tennessee this afternoon as a nice little cold front pushes across the area. Lows tonight will dip into the lower 50s! Highs on Sunday will be close to seasonal normals in the mid to upper 70s with sunny skies and lower humidity. Another cool and dry night is expected Sunday Night with Lows once again in the low to mid 50s.
318 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 A cold front will settle southeast of the forecast area later today.
(Sunday through Monday) Weak ridging aloft will quickly get replaced by the arrival of a weak upper trough that will open up as it moves across the Tx Hill Country today, into the heart of our region tonight, ejecting east of our region by Monday. While there will be weak upper forcing provided by the upper trough tonight and increasing mid to high level moisture, the lack of any return low level flow and moisture should preclude the need for any pop through the short term. Therefore, have stayed on the higher side of MOS temperature guidance today and on the warmer side of guidance for overnight low temperatures tonight. By Monday, we should lose the mid to high level cloud cover to our east during the day with the ejection of the week upper trough.
A cooler night will otherwise also be in store with locations across the Hill Country starting off in the mid to upper 50s early Monday morning. Monday trends fair and warmer with mid 80s again becoming common under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. The light flow across the low-levels and at the surface will also shift to out of the east-southeast into/through Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs in the mid 70s. Overnight lows look to drop into the low 50s to upper 40s in the eastern Ozarks. Overview: An upper-level ridge is progged to build across the Plains this week, bringing warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions with low-end shower/thunderstorm chances.
Skies were clear across the region this evening with temperatures in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. The highest risk of dense fog will be in our eastern/southeastern counties in the valley locations. The upper trough axis, evident on water vapor imagery, is finally pushing through, which is ending the light rain across our SE CWA. High pressure prevails on Sunday, which looks to be a beautiful day with highs in the 70s, low humidity and sunny skies. Quiet weather is expected through the period as the upper pattern is generally characterized by ridging over the Plains region that will slowly progress eastward while troughing gradually deepens over both the East and West Coasts. At the surface, high pressure will maintain its influence over the region through much of the week.
1055 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) The weak cold front is already over the coastal waters, leaving the region under a relatively dry northerly flow and post frontal mid-to high clouds. Ridging axis aloft will continue to move overhead tonight, shifting the flow to a more southwesterly component. slightly cooler temperatures can be expected Sunday night into Monday. Sunday's temperatures will range a few degrees cooler than today with highs mainly from the upper 70s to low 80s.
132 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 Cooler and drier air has returned to the region, although temperatures will quickly trend back above normal early to middle of this week, with dry conditions expected for the foreseeable future.
A similar thickness of smoke aloft continues into Monday, as the upper-level flow remain out of the northwest with an upper-ridge continuing to build into the Northern Plains. So while the trend will be warmer, the question remains about how much of an impact smoke will have on high temperatures. Mean upper ridging across the Northern Plains through the period, with the ridge axis eventually sliding east of the area late in the extended, allowing for southwest flow at the mid and upper levels to gradually take over. A back door cold front may slide southward into the eastern CWA Tues night into Wed and could potentially bring 70s into the area.
Other than some high lvl clouds, skies were mostly clear with predawn temps ranging from the lower 50s to the lower 60s.
238 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure building into the area today will be the dominate weather feature through mid-week bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
1231 AM CDT Sun May 21 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Upper level flow remains quite light with subtle ridging centered across the western Gulf of Mexico. The cold front that has brought today's cooler weather remains stalled right around the Rio Grande. Another disturbance set to move out of northern Mexico this morning brings another round of precipitation chances to the lower Trans Pecos through the south-central Permian Basin tomorrow morning until early tomorrow afternoon. By tomorrow afternoon, only the far western zones of the higher terrain will see enough instability for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. The Permian Basin and the lower Trans Pecos top out in the mid to upper 70s thanks to the morning/early afternoon precipitation with those along and west of the Pecos reach the 80s.
Increased cloud cover will keep daytime temperatures near to slightly below seasonable (Today will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, and then low to mid 80s on Monday) while keeping overnight temperatures near normal in the low 70s tonight and tomorrow night.
Slightly higher Sunday night, low temps will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s across the state.
/Issued 1109 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023/ /Overnight through Monday/ Satellite imagery shows a thick blanket of high clouds that have spread across much of the state tonight thanks to persistent troughing over the southwest U. Mostly sunny skies are expected on Monday with temperatures back in the low/mid 80s.
/NEW/ /Overnight through Monday/ Satellite imagery shows a thick blanket of high clouds that have spread across much of the state tonight thanks to persistent troughing over the southwest U. Mostly sunny skies are expected on Monday with temperatures back in the low/mid 80s. As the system mentioned in the short-term discussion exits to the east, the rest of Monday will likely remain precipitation-free with afternoon highs approaching the low to mid 80s across most of the region.
The front should push south of the CWA by tonight as high pressure builds in from the north.
211 AM MDT Sun May 21 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge across the western CONUS with ridge topping disturbance tracking southeast across the Dakotas. Upper ridge axis shifts into the Northern Plains on Monday as upper low/trof moves into the Pac NW. Large scale subsidence beneath the upper ridge will result in little cloud cover and no precip.
257 AM CDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure is centered in west central Illinois early today, and that's providing another clear, quiet, cool night to the region. Tonight, with mostly clear skies, we'll drop again to the lower to mid 50s, as we see light wind from the west/southwest.
1145 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 VFR conditions with mainly clear skies are expected this forecast as northwest flow around high pressure to the southwest funnels dry air through the region. The center of mid to upper level low pressure is in vicinity of Georgian Bay and the Bruce Peninsula Ontario this afternoon. A rolling and tumbling action to the upper level PV feature and low pressure center will cause the deeper moisture to quickly exit the region by 23Z this evening. Loss of daytime heating with this low thetae will support very aggressive clearing tonight.
Temperatures will be several degrees below normal today, in the lower to mid 80s. Expect lows tonight from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s along the coast.
402 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure to start the work week is reinforced by another high building in from the north midweek. The remainder of the day will be sunny and comfortable with temperatures reaching the lower 70s in the mountains and the mid-to-upper 70s in the lowlands by the afternoon. High pressure will remain in control into tonight with mainly clear skies, but some patchy dense fog may be possible again in a few sheltered river valleys.
201 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 Quiet weather and above average temperatures are expected through the week under high pressure. Confidence is high that foggy conditions will continue in the ridges of Preston/Tucker County through the early morning hours given a high concentration of moisture in the boundary layer, light winds, and radiational cooling in the wake of the cold front. After sunrise expect dry, quiet conditions under high pressure. Dry weather will continue through the short term as broad high pressure builds over the eastern CONUS, centered over lower ON/QC. This will help area temperatures recover on Sunday as highs push back into the low/mid 70s, and mid/upper 70s on Monday.
The flow aloft will become very weak Monday, as a weak trough pushes eastward across Arkansas.
1150 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 A transient pattern is expected during the short term with weak ridging present across the Plains. The 576 dam ridge is all the way up into the Northern Plains, but the 582 dam ridge is suppressed down into Texas. A weak upper level impulse will trek across the High Plains on Monday, current thinking is that better rain chances will remain along US Highway 281 with some lower chances as far east as the Kansas Turnpike.
356 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 Current water vapor imagery/RAP analysis highlights a swath of dry air across the lower Midwest and portions of the Southeast and Mid- Atlantic states with high pressure centered over the Missouri Valley. Closer to home, a cold front is draped across northern Lake Superior and is progged to drop southward today. Meanwhile, temperatures will be much cooler than yesterday near the lakeshore with a northeasterly component to the wind.
336 AM CDT Sun May 21 2023 A warmer day in store across the area with warm air advection continuing over the region in a southerly low level flow. In a continuing warm air advection regime, it will be a milder night with lows in the lower to mid 50s. An upper level trough over the Rockies begins to shift to the east on Monday.
305 AM CDT Sun May 21 2023 Getting a sense of the upper level pattern, weak ridging exists over the Gulf of Mexico with subtle mid/upper troughing extending from the northern plains to the Four Corners region.
217 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure building into the area today will be the dominate weather feature through mid-week bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
Still , out there, surface dew point depressions were averaging about 10 degrees and the low ceiling noted was around 9kft at Johnson. Another cool day is expected as temperatures climb into the low 70s by mid afternoon. An overall increase in cloud cover into Monday is shown in the HREF fields, and with potential earlier day wet grounds, and residual cloud cover the low 70s may be the limit for afternoon highs.
Warmer temperatures will persist inland into Monday, with a slight cooldown expected in the mid-week. Coastal regions stay cooler with a deep marine layer.
1150 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 (The rest of tonight) Latest surface analysis indicates high pressure over the Southern Plains centered over MO. High pressure will continue to build slightly southward overnight, with light wind expected across the area.
1231 AM CDT Sun May 21 2023 Tonight and Tomorrow: As the cold front makes its way southeast of our CWA tonight, rain chances should start to diminish. Cooler and drier air will be in the wake of the front as lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s. Highs will be cooler than the past days as temperatures will range from low to mid 80s statewide.
1128 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 00Z upper air analysis this evening places an upper-level low over Lower Michigan with an upper-level ridge axis located across the western United States. Meanwhile, surface analysis this evening places a cold front from the Appalachians back through central Alabama and into southern Mississippi and Louisiana.
Skies will generally be mostly cloudy through the day, with highs mostly in the low to mid 80s. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will continue tonight with lows in the low to mid 60s.
1250 AM CDT Sun May 21 2023 (Rest of tonight) A cold front that helped to bring showers and thunderstorms across the area earlier today has moved south and east of the region, extending from the western Carolinas, northern Georgia to south of Birmingham and Meridian. Temperatures by daybreak Sunday should cool into the low 50s north to mid 50s south.
114 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 A cold front will cross the region from the northwest tonight then settle southeast of the area on Sunday. Mainly dry high pressure returns by Monday.
Through the day, expanding of high pressure from the northeast will promote subsidence and dry conditions.
(The rest of tonight) Latest surface analysis indicates high pressure over the Southern Plains centered over MO. High pressure will continue to build slightly southward overnight, with light wind expected across the area.
232 AM MDT Sun May 21 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with hot high pressure over the Desert Southwest. This formed up a ridge and stretched it north through Utah, western Montana. Northeast Montana lies on the downslope of the ridge under northwestern flow. To the west a large trough runs down the coastline of British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Today into Monday: Ridge axis will firm up and march across the Montana. Ridge should begin exiting to the east Monday afternoon allowing the upper atmosphere to begin to destabilize. However, the ridge should drag most of the smoke along with it out of the area.
Warming of the air mass will result in highs away from the lake cooling footprint in the upper 70s to around 80F today and probably 1-2F degrees warmer on Monday. For our sensible weather, there's been little change in the low impact forecast, but a few items of note into the Memorial Day holiday weekend.
A western hemisphere blocking pattern will realign during the first half of the week with high amplitude western Conus ridging comprising a stubborn Rex block shifting into the central part of the country. The pesky, stalled low pressure portion of the Rex block was evident on early morning WV imagery finally lifting into western New Mexico, and increasing southwest flow over the forecast area will steadily introduce drier air into the region through the first half of the week bringing an end to afternoon deep, moist convection.
133 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 Two areas of low pressure, one from the south and one from the west, will bring periods of rain into tonight.
Two synoptic features were depicted this morning adjacent to our CWA: the 1st one is a weak ridge located over the Florida Peninsula and the 2nd one is a short wave east of the Bahamas.
Afternoon highs today will top out in the lower 90s for most locations. A weak trough across the northern Gulf will slowly drift eastward through the week. Though the pattern does appear wetter, the highest QPF values will be located over interior and eastern Florida where a general 1- 3 inches is expected. The approaching trough and wetter pattern will also lead to a break in the heat across the area.
Monday morning may still be rather stormy and rainy as the cold front finally crosses the region.
417 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 Mostly quiet conditions are expected under high pressure for the next few days.
301 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 Current Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery shows valley fog across the higher terrain of eastern KY but some valley fog has been seen developing across parts of southern IN into SW Ohio. Upper ridge axis that is influencing the western two-thirds of the CONUS will slowly shift eastward during the day and gradually increase heights over southern IN and central KY. This will lead to warmer temperatures in the mid 70s for the afternoon. Benign weather is expected for the work week as an upper level ridge of high pressure maintains control over the region, which will allow for dry and warm weather.
(Today through Monday) The surface cold front has pushed as far south as Troy. The humidity levels will be slightly less today than yesterday, but afternoon temperatures will still top out in the lower to middle 80s for most areas. At the same time, a weak upper low will develop to the west of Alabama. The front and cloud cover will produce cooler temperatures on Monday, especially over east Alabama.
1245 AM CDT Sun May 21 2023 An upper low continues to spin across southwestern North Dakota and will move out into South Dakota over the next few hours. Showers associated with this low continue to diminish over the southwest with the loss of appreciable instability. Current surface analysis places high stretching from the upper Midwest into the southern plains, while a trough stretches through the southern Canadian prairies dipping into the northern plains. Monday looks to be the warmest day as ridge passes over, with 80s expected for highs over most locations. Ridge then starts to move off to the east with flow becoming southwesterly.
Currently, an upper low continues to approach the western South Dakota/North Dakota border. At the surface, a weak and dry cold front is located across northern North Dakota. This front should wash out/stall out through the day in the wake of the upper low as ridging starts to build back in from the west. The weather remains quiet tonight with smoke sticking around and lows in the low to mid 50s.
341 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the upcoming week.
An area of low pressure along a cold front will move southeast into The region Today. The boundary will move just to the south Tonight, as high pressure builds from the north.
By the end of the week, dry and slightly cooler conditions prevail.
Lingering smoke trapped by the stagnant upper ridge over the western US continues to circulate around high pressure over the midwest and reduced visibilities are noted in surface observations and webcams across the panhandle and far western Nebraska. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees, a good bit warmer than last night. For Sunday, a compact short wave will spill over the top of the western ridge and weaken a bit as it pushes southward through the High Plains. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement in gradually moving the large upper ridge over the western US to the east and tilting the axis clockwise a bit.
242 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure building into the area today will be the dominate weather feature through mid-week bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather and lessening winds. Given the lack of moisture the efficiency to bring the higher gusts to the surface will linger through sunset, but then expected to quickly decouple. Full sunshine returns again Sun with ridging overhead and temps rebounding into the mid/upr 70s. The large diurnal swing and dry parcels could accommodate temps rising 1-2 degrees warmer and a few locations could tap out around 80. Expect northwest flow aloft early in the period with upper ridging across the western half of the CONUS gradually shifting eastward. Look for highs in the low 80s Monday to slightly warm by midweek before a cold front approaches the region.
1244 AM CDT Sun May 21 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) The cold front that brought showers and storms to the area overnight is just south of our area this afternoon with cooler temperatures from the mid 70s to mid 80s seen today. Development is expected to begin over the higher terrain in Mexico this evening before moving across the Rio Grande and over the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. Temperatures tonight will generally be in the 60s, with an even cooler day expected for tomorrow. Highs across much of the area will be in the 70s, possibly remaining in the 60s in the higher terrain of the Hill Country on Sunday.
611 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the upcoming week.
Also, when looking at GOES 16 Mid level water vapor imagery we see a fair amount of dry air over the Florida Keys as upper level ridging is overhead. The first one is an area of high pressure over the Ohio RIver Valley, and the second is a low pressure system northeast of the Bahamas.