Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Daytime highs are expected to top out around 8-10 degrees above average in the low to mid 80's. (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions prevail as high pressure remains in control. High pressure near Bermuda ridges westward across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will veer to the south on Friday morning and further veer to the southwest on Friday afternoon as a cold front approaches the eastern gulf waters from the northwest. Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible ahead of and in the vicinity of the cold front, with the highest chances of showers and storms over the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
528 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 (Today and tonight) The mid/upper low that brought yesterday's wind has lifted northeastward to central Kansas, still embedded within a broader trough that extends from the desert Southwest to the northern Plains.
Lows the next two mornings are expected to drop below the freezing mark, with highs in the 40s and 50s.
Temperatures should be warmer than yesterday but will still be fairly cool, with highs in the upper teens (mountains) to low 30s (urban corridor). A COUPLE QUIET DAYS FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN A fairly strong ridge will overspread the Central Rockies through Friday, bringing dry weather and warmer temperatures. Highs should still be able to make it into the lower to mid 50s in some areas west of I-25 in Denver, while most plains will only reach the mid 30s to lower 40s.
As a ridge axis of high pressure shifts overhead from the Pacific, cold conditions and clear skies will continue across ERN Idaho outside of patchy areas of low stratus and freezing fog. Increasing mid to upper level clouds will build in from the west late today through the overnight hours which even with increased cloud cover, will not being doing much to insulate the surface with another round of very cold temperatures albeit slightly warmer in some areas. A split trough moving onshore will send a split low off the coast of CA as broad northerly and zonal upper level flow continue across the region keeping things dry.
Heating up Today, Even Hotter Tomorrow Ahead of a Cold Front. Center of the strong mid level ridge will remain centered over SOFL and the Bahamas today. The ridge will begin to shift SE and flatten ahead of an amplifying short wave trough, which reaches the MS and OH Valleys late tonight. Dry again and warmer, with max temps L80s near the coast and M80s inland.
Mid-level and low-level dry air has diminished widespread snowfall across eastern Kansas this morning as the upper low moves ENE along the KS/NE border. Large-scale divergence aloft ahead of the upper low will persist through the early morning hours this morning along the KS/NE border where dry air entrainment should remain limited. Snow will taper off through the morning from west to east as the upper low moves into northern Missouri and southern Iowa. By Friday, the upper-level trough axis will move east across the area with ridging building in behind. Low-level flow will return from the south/southwest and advect in warmer air for the weekend. Friday afternoon high temperatures will reflect this and return to the mid 40s with slightly cooler temperatures in areas with snowpack.
An area of low pressure will drop south over the coastal waters on Thursday, mainly just bringing mid level clouds and southerly winds to the area.
* Skies should clear late in the day, but high temperatures will likely not climb above freezing. * Dry and "warmer" weather is expected through the weekend, with temperatures across snow covered areas likely remaining several degrees cooler than the areas that received little to now snowfall.
The upper level low continues to slowly spin across the region early this morning, resulting in persistent light snow over portions of the plains. Shorter range ensemble and deterministic model guidance are all in strong agreement about a ridge of high pressure pushing eastward across the Colorado region. Temperatures across the area will also start to warm, as westerly downsloping winds, along with the ridge, help to warm the region.
Conditions may improve Friday though as the air mass moderates and the higher February sun may be able to crust the snow over somewhat.
240 AM PST Thu Feb 16 2023 After a cold start this morning with subfreezing temperatures in portions of the inland valleys and areas of frost in the valleys and some coastal areas, it will be gradually warmer into the weekend with weekend high temperatures near to slightly below average.
Today, expect cold temperatures as northerly surface winds continue in the wake of yesterday's cold front.
2 C/km, so this suggests the potential for strong updrafts especially with the help of the cold frontal boundary this afternoon. Fully expect additional watches later this morning and afternoon with the very strong cold front. It might be easier to say when it will end and that will be with the cold front. Once the cold front passes it will be on the cold side tomorrow with highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s.
High pressure builds into the region today which will help to gradually warm temperatures. Winds have generally been light so far early this morning but locally gusty winds across the higher terrain have allowed for some wind chill values as low as -10. The trough that brought the cold and snowy conditions will finally exit to the east today as high pressure starts to build across the region.
Dry condition persist through the weekend, however clouds will increase and temperatures will trend a little warmer.
335 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 500 mb short wave and weak cold front moving thru the fcst area this early morning. High pressure in eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba will drop southeast into eastern ND this afternoon and move southeast tonight.
Strong ridging is still dominating the region, and an impressive subsidence inversion was sampled once again during last night's sounding. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s and skies are mostly clear to partly cloudy. Today will be the last day (for now) of ridging fully controlling our sensible weather.
356 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2023 Across the Tri State region this morning, skies remain cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries still falling over portions of the cwa on the backside of the exiting upper low. Going into today, the region will continue to be impacted by the slow moving upper low. For temps, highs across the region will be impacted by the current snowpack as well as the timing of clearing of the low clouds from west to east. Going into Friday, southwest, downslope flow will bring a range from the upper 30s into the lower 40s.
500 mb short wave and weak cold front moving thru the fcst area this early morning. High pressure in eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba will drop southeast into eastern ND this afternoon and move southeast tonight.
540 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Through 18Z today: A powerful mid/upper low is located over western Kansas, and the associated deep tropospheric ascent is currently over portions of north-central Kansas and southern Nebraska. This is where the highest snowfall rates are occurring this morning. Rest of today through the weekend: As the upper trough exits the region, upper ridging translates over the central plains through the end of the week and into the weekend.
554 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 500 mb short wave and weak cold front moving thru the fcst area this early morning. High pressure in eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba will drop southeast into eastern ND this afternoon and move southeast tonight.
Stable and cold conditions will remain in place through the remainder of the week and through a portion of the weekend thanks to high pressure.
Fully expect additional watches later this morning and afternoon with the very strong cold front. It might be easier to say when it will end and that will be with the cold front. Once the cold front passes it will be on the cold side tomorrow with highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s.
Across the Tri State region this morning, skies remain cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries still falling over portions of the cwa on the backside of the exiting upper low. Going into today, the region will continue to be impacted by the slow moving upper low. For temps, highs across the region will be impacted by the current snowpack as well as the timing of clearing of the low clouds from west to east. Going into Friday, southwest, downslope flow will bring a range from the upper 30s into the lower 40s.
Heating up Today Ahead of an Approaching Cold Front.
514 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) A Pacific cold front moved through during the day yesterday, but the colder Canadian air is only now arriving as noted with a more northerly wind direction seen on surface observations this morning. Lows tonight will drop into the 20s to upper teens with the only readings above freezing being right along the Rio Grande.
Showers will spread from south to north this morning as a warm front crosses the region. The core of the colder airmass will move over the area by late Friday with lows dipping into the lower 20s.
439 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 (Today) Thunderstorms have cleared the area to the east, with much cooler and drier air pouring into the CWA from the north.
Short range ensembles are in good agreement with upper low tracking southward down the eastern pacific, well off the coast into the weekend. This track continues to trend farther west which will keep the entire area dry and a bit warmer than previous forecasts, as weak ridge builds overhead. Valley highs will still be on the cool side today in the low and upper 50's. Low temperatures will continue on the cold side with readings near or just a few degrees above freezing at many Valley locations through the weekend with patchy frost possible.
So as the precipitation develops towards daybreak in this area it will start off as rain/freezing rain depending on the surface temperatures. A few degrees cooler or warmer could shift to either more snow or a cold rain with more icing possible. By this time, colder air will allow the column to finally drop below freezing with the dendritic growth zone finally becoming saturated. By the time the precipitation ends, up to two inches of snow is expected in the advisory area with up to a tenth of an inch of sleet and up to a tenth of an inch of freezing rain possible. However, with warmer surface conditions, little to no accumulation is expected, thus impacts in this area will be limited. Despite partly to mostly sunny skies, highs will only warm up into the low 30s to low 40s.
Snow is expected north of Holland, Grand Rapids, and Alma, while heading south of that line, there will be more of a tendency for ice pellets or freezing rain, turning to light snow late tonight. This is usually not well resolved in the models especially those with coarser grid resolution, though will tend to lean on the HRRR and ARW which suggest that the highest QPF may be focused in the vicinity of Holland-GR-Alma. Early on in the event, around mid day, rain or freezing rain in the vicinity of Jackson may occur. -- Friday and onward -- Despite the cold day, ridging and dry air will limit lake effect snow on Friday. Milder air sourced from what was a Pac-NW ridge will moderate our temperatures over the weekend.
304 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Quiet conditions continue across the region with latest observations showing increasing cloud cover ahead of an advancing upper level trough and low pressure near the Nebraska/Kansas border. Meanwhile at the sfc, will see a ridge axis slowly drift eastward throughout the day. Currently have gusts ranging from 15 to 25 mph, with those along the Buffalo Ridge approaching 30 to 35 mph at times.
325 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2023 An upper trough stretches from the Hudson Bay to the Desert SW, with its low spinning over eastern CO/western KS. Western CONUS upper ridging will move over the Rockies today, as the upper trough shifts eastward.
A weak trough runs back west into the Canadian territories and is latching onto arctic air. South of this flow is a perturbed pattern of troughs and ridges originating from the north Pacific. The first ridge noses up from southern California through western Montana and spills over onto the high Plains of Alberta as a chinook. Behind it the first trough sets just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with further ridges and troughs behind it. Thursday through Thursday night: Stalled cold air across the north will exit to the east quickly in the morning as the crest of the ridge spills out onto the Montana plains in a warm front with chinook behind it. Friday and Friday night: As the ridge exits another little meso trough with a weakened cold front will move across the area.
213 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2023 Across the Tri State region this morning, skies remain cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries still falling over portions of the cwa on the backside of the exiting upper low. Going into today, the region will continue to be impacted by the slow moving upper low. For temps, highs across the region will be impacted by the current snowpack as well as the timing of clearing of the low clouds from west to east. Going into Friday, southwest, downslope flow will bring a range from the upper 30s into the lower 40s.
The last effects of the early week low pressure system will dwindle throughout the day today as the system continues to shift eastward. Freezing temperatures will be widespread across much of the region this morning, including Las Vegas with a forecast low of 32. A Pacific cutoff low will deepens substantially Friday but latest EC/GEFS means keep this low well off the coast of California and south of the region. Other than mid and high level cloud cover, this low should do little to impact the region in the short term.
Over the Rockies into the Plains, this setup will allow the upper flow to flatten out, increasing lee troughing and providing strong south and southwest winds across the region for Sat. Both ECMWF and GFS have a closed low off of Baja by Mon morning with strong west/northwest flow aloft from the Rockies into the Midwest. As the southern stream upper low progresses east into West TX for Tue night into Wed, a much more robust upper trough will start to dig over the Western CONUS into the Great Basin. The low pressure system continues to track northeast.
1238 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2023 Across the Tri State region this morning, skies remain cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries still falling over portions of the cwa on the backside of the exiting upper low. Going into today, the region will continue to be impacted by the slow moving upper low. For temps, highs across the region will be impacted by the current snowpack as well as the timing of clearing of the low clouds from west to east. Going into Friday, southwest, downslope flow will bring a range from the upper 30s into the lower 40s.
Arthur Ridging aloft will bring generally quiet weather to the region through Friday. With the ridging bringing stronger cross mountain flow will see winds increase over the western foothills again today and continue gusty to locally strong at times through Friday night. Lower lying areas from Carbon county into Yellowstone county (including Billings) will see southerly winds today into early on Friday pulling colder air out of the Bighorn Basin, which will work to hold temperatures a few degrees cooler than surrounding higher hilltop locations will get.
Radar shows a the full gamut of precipitation around the low that's moving through the upper Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms are moving across Indiana with some freezing rain and sleet over the southern cwa along with snow falling over the north half. Temperatures started out this morning in the upper 30s but are now a degree or two away from freezing as colder air works into the system. Thus the light rain that's falling south of I-94 will mix with and turn to some freezing rain later this afternoon. As the low moves northeast and the synoptic snow ends overnight, a brief period of lake effect snow may develop adjacent to the lake shore. High pressure will nose into the region Friday and produce dry weather through the weekend with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Strong west northwest winds will gust 20-30 mph at times tonight and bring much cooler air to the Quad State. Lows will drop below freezing throughout the region and minimum wind chills early Friday morning will be from 15 to 20 degrees. NAM and GFS soundings indicate that temperatures at the top of the mixed layer will be at or below -10C Friday, so if the low-level clouds hang on over there flurries would be possible. Highs will only be in the 35-40 range over most of the region, and wind chills over most of the area may not reach freezing.
Breezy to windy conditions will continue tonight and into Friday morning as high pressure builds in and cool dry air pours into South Texas. Temperatures will be cool tonight but the wind chills will feel downright cold as they touch freezing. Wind chills will still be cold, but should not drop much below freezing as winds will be significantly weaker.
1023 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2023 An upper trough stretches from the Hudson Bay to the Desert SW, with its low spinning over eastern CO/western KS. Western CONUS upper ridging will move over the Rockies today, as the upper trough shifts eastward.
The warm front has shifting north of the forecast area as warmer air begins to advect into the Upper Ohio Valley. Strong cold air advection will engage just after 06Z with frontal passage as temps drop into the lower 30s by 12Z with strong northwest flow through the rest of the night. The core of the colder airmass will move over the area by late Friday with lows dipping into the lower 20s.
Upper ridge overhead today will shift east of us tonight. Upper trough off the coast is currently closing off a low around 40N/134W.
Although there is a small variance in the 25th and 75th percentile, am currently leaning towards the lower 25th percentile tonight due to the clear skies and light winds. The ECMWF and GEFS ensembles were in good agreement and indicated that the upper level ridge would weaken as it moves into the Central Plains this weekend. Still over these areas with snow, if they remain, the highs will average between 5 to 10F warmer compared to the highs on Friday.
(The rest of today ) It will be a mostly cloudy and colder day across the region behind a cold front which is now moving into eastern AR. There may be a few breaks here and there but clouds will be stubborn to clear until Friday when the upper trough axis slides by.
High pressure will deliver dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures over the weekend.
1130 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) A Pacific cold front moved through during the day yesterday, but the colder Canadian air is only now arriving as noted with a more northerly wind direction seen on surface observations this morning. Lows tonight will drop into the 20s to upper teens with the only readings above freezing being right along the Rio Grande.
1004 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2023 Across the Tri State region this morning, skies remain cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries still falling over portions of the cwa on the backside of the exiting upper low. Going into today, the region will continue to be impacted by the slow moving upper low. For temps, highs across the region will be impacted by the current snowpack as well as the timing of clearing of the low clouds from west to east. Going into Friday, southwest, downslope flow will bring a range from the upper 30s into the lower 40s.
Blended a little cooler with the HRRR over areas with fresh snow in the east. By the end of the day, H85 temps rise to +2C in and ahead of the trough, aided by southwest to westerly sfc flow. Patchy to areas of blowing snow may reduce visibility before temperatures rise above freezing. Some cooler air will squeak back into the northeast and west central MN on a back door cold front Friday night.
A few areas along the Missouri River Valley may see 40s! The surface pressure gradient increases as the high pressure center moves to the east. In general, the higher winds will be east of I-29, with the strongest winds along Buffalo Ridge where gusts of 30-35 mph are possible.
316 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023 Rain and thunderstorms develop through tonight as low pressure moves across from the west. Turning much colder Friday behind a cold front. Thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon through early tonight as a cold front/trough axis crosses to the mountains from the west. 5" inches along the highest elevations. High pressure will then build into the region for the weekend, providing for dry conditions.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK SBCAPE MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT UP TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIESâ¦ AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, STORMS FORCED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ARE STILL POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST,, BUT SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER LIMITED. WINDS DECREASE FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF STATES WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
Will keep to the HWO only at this time, but would not surprise me if an SPS would be needed in the moment should the band materialize and have intensity near the high end of guidance.
A warm nose aloft as evident on max wetbulb analysis on the SPC meso page and the 18z ILX sounding has allowed rain, freezing rain, and sleet to fall this AM southeast of a line from Keosauqua, through the Quad Cities, to Sterling/Rock Falls. Our 18z DVN sounding has a below freezing profile, with some steep mid level lapse rates, and a 40-50% RH in the DGZ. Latest water vapor loops show upper level low rotating along the IA/MO border, with a slight northeast track evident. 5"-2"/hr snowfall rates as seen in central IA since the upper low continues to show signs of weakening, the latest 12z HREF progs of 0. Through much of the the weekend, a warm advection regime will dominate, pushing highs above the freezing mark.
The mean layer ridge was located just east of the Bahamas this morning. Therefore, expect continued east to southeast flow, near nil rain chances, highs in the lower 80s, and east to southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. From synopsis, high pressure centered near Bermuda will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes this afternoon, except moderate to fresh breezes in the Straits of Florida, before slackening ahead of an approaching weak frontal boundary tonight through Friday.
1107 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 (Today and tonight) The mid/upper low that brought yesterday's wind has lifted northeastward to central Kansas, still embedded within a broader trough that extends from the desert Southwest to the northern Plains.
1145 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Through 18Z today: A powerful mid/upper low is located over western Kansas, and the associated deep tropospheric ascent is currently over portions of north-central Kansas and southern Nebraska. This is where the highest snowfall rates are occurring this morning. Rest of today through the weekend: As the upper trough exits the region, upper ridging translates over the central plains through the end of the week and into the weekend.
5-2km as the column cooled near the upper low. The cold snap shouldn't last long however with SW winds returning by midday Friday as the high departs.
Conditions will be quiet on Thursday as the Northern Rockies sits under the influence of an upper-level ridge. Some light snow can be expected in the valleys as well, but the temperature forecast for the lower elevations adds some complexity. With above-freezing high temperatures expected in the valleys, snow will have difficulty accumulating during the daytime hours.
Winds will gradually decrease later tonight with clearing skies and given low dew points, min temps should end up a bit cooler than values given by blended guidance. (Tomorrow through Thursday) Most of the forecast period will be marked by a break in the recent active weather pattern, with low amplitude ridging over the Southern Plains into the weekend.