Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Sunday Night) Warm/humid air lingering across the southern half of the CWA (ahead of a very weak cold front) has helped to keep areas of fog in place at/near the coast this morning. Clearing skies with mod- erate west winds at the lower/mid levels will produce decent insol- ating conditions this afternoon. Lows will range from the lower to mid 50s north. and the lower 60s at the immediate coast. We'll likely see the the warm/humid air mass return on Sun with the weak front lifting back north/inland as a warm front. Lows Sun night should range from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s to the south.
Aside from a few light snow showers in the Sierra and possibly the higher terrain of southcentral Nevada this weekend, expect dry conditions, generally light winds and unseasonably cool temperatures.
614 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 (Today and tonight) West winds will ramp up again today as a surface cyclone moves southeast across the Texas Panhandle and upper level wind speeds increase. However, tonight will be much cooler than average with lows around 10 degrees colder due to efficient radiational cooling from clear skies, much calmer winds, and very dry air.
706 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 (Today through Sunday Night) Warm/humid air lingering across the southern half of the CWA (ahead of a very weak cold front) has helped to keep areas of fog in place at/near the coast this morning. Clearing skies with mod- erate west winds at the lower/mid levels will produce decent insol- ating conditions this afternoon. Lows will range from the lower to mid 50s north. and the lower 60s at the immediate coast. We'll likely see the the warm/humid air mass return on Sun with the weak front lifting back north/inland as a warm front. Lows Sun night should range from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s to the south.
747 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 High pressure and warming temperatures will continue through the weekend. A cold front will pass to our north today with the only effects being a small chance of rain over Levy County.
However, daytime heating is quickly breaking this low-level inversion, allowing the drir air above 950mb (~1400 ft) to mix down to the surface. While perhaps slightly lighter winds are possible the next few days, a similar setup occurs each day through mid-week when a weak cold front approaches the area, bringing gustier northerly winds to the region.
Dry weather and much less windy conditions return Sunday under high pressure. A cold front is making its way through the region. Very dry low level air has wrapped in ahead of the cold front.
257 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 A cold front will cross the local area this evening.
310 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Cold front will cross the region this evening with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Dew points have precipitously dropped (30+ degF) behind the passage of an overnight surface cold front, and while temperatures have risen into the mid 80s across much of the area it has proven to be a generally benign and pleasant day. Winds will shift to the S/SE overnight with the arrival of a surface warm front, though the pressure gradient will remain relatively loose given the lack of surface cyclogenesis to our W/NW.
This outflow boundary outraced the actual cold front currently positioned from the central Great Lakes back through central MS. The cold front currently to the north will be the main concern late tonight through Sunday. The pop forecast is obviously very very dependent upon where the cold front stalls. Drier and cooler conditions are anticipated across the far north.
The low pressure system that helped bring stormy wx last evening was located near Detroit with a cold front arcing down to the NC mountains and back across the deep south. For this afternoon, we will see sunny skies become partly cloudy at times as a weak trough axis swings across the area.
Temperatures in this area have risen above freezing but there is concern that increasing winds combined with remaining glaze may lead to additional impacts into early evening.
Cool and dry conditions will prevail over the weekend aside from just a few light showers over the higher terrain.
317 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Strong low pressure to track through the Great Lakes into southern Canada tonight with strong winds diminishing this evening and lingering rain showers ending. Weak high pressure to offer a dry period overnight into Sunday.
1258 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 (Rest of Today) Drier air will filter in across the area today as a cold front shifts southeast of the Tennessee River. High pressure will build across the central US while the sfc front is held up to our south, and skies will continue clearing through the morning.
Overall, our temperatures will stay cooler than climatically average in the short term with much of western and northern Oklahoma dropping to or just below freezing tonight, although increasing mid-level clouds should inhibit any stronger nocturnal cooling. With the surface boundary nearly stalled across our southeast tonight, light southeasterly winds ahead of it should keep southeast Oklahoma warmer in the lower 40s tonight and perhaps the warmest on Sunday afternoon in the 70s. The upper levels transition into more of a split-flow pattern by Sunday with the longwave trough in the southerly flow affecting our area. All models in good agreement with mid-level vorticity ascent coming through the trough across northern Oklahoma on Sunday, although forecast soundings suggest mid-level moisture not very deep with both the ECMWF and Canadian NH guidance agreeing with the NBM for any QPF.
Winds will become more southeasterly across the Panhandles on Sunday as the high spreads eastward across Kansas and northern Oklahoma. A few sprinkles will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the far northern Texas Panhandle as clouds thicken up and an upper level disturbance moves across this area on the southwest edge of a much larger trough over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies.
(Highs are expected to climb into the low/mid 50s with 500mb temps below -25C. Greater confidence in rain by Thu night into Fri as next longwave trough ejects out of the southwest CONUS. Conditions are favored to return to VFR tonight, followed by the lowering ceilings later Sunday; just outside this TAF period.
High pressure builds in with a clear sky and lighter winds.
Strong 991 mb low pressure over southern Lake Huron at mid afternoon was pulling ne away from the area, while weak 1012 mb high pressure was over northern AR. Latest CAMs lift low pressure ne into sw Quebec overnight while a short wave over WY tracks eastward across the central plains, reaching near the IA/NE border by sunrise Sunday. Lows tonight in the low to mid 30s, except upper 30s from Springfield sw and in southeast IL. Models are now showing some instability Sunday afternoon ahead of this low in eastern IL where CAPES 400-500 j/kg and also have stronger wind shear/helicity values and the higher values are further north. Models have trended warmer on Sunday with highs in the mid 50s northern CWA and mid 60s south of I-70.
This precipitation will continue to move eastward throughout the morning, eventually exiting to the east of our area early this afternoon as the main mid/upper trough axis shifts eastward.
237 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Weak high pressure will move across the area early tonight followed by developing weak low pressure that will be over the region Sunday.
Diminishing winds and dry/seasonable conditions will emerge tonight into tomorrow morning in wake of the low as a diffuse pressure field briefly develops.
Calm weather conditions are taking place this morning across northern Arizona as a broad area of low pressure sits over much of the northwest portion of the country. With the cold core of a trough just to the north today, an area of convectively induced snow showers are expected to develop this afternoon into the overnight. Accumulations look to mainly be light, with around 1 to 3 inches possible in the heaviest snow over the high terrain. Across the lower elevations, temperatures will be cold enough for snow, but accumulations should generally be a an inch or less.
210 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Water vapor shows large western CONUS trof with series of waves extending from the Pac NW into the Central Plains. Main upper low will gradually take shape over WY on Sunday.
1238 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 (Today through Sunday) Clear skies and dry air are in place across South Central Texas in the wake of yesterday's Pacific cold front. A warm front is forecast to lift back well into the central and eastern areas Sunday morning.
Clouds will increase across the north this evening ahead a of weak upper level trough that will sweep across the area tonight, along with a weak surface boundary that will push in from the north overnight. A stronger trough diving out of Canada will reinforce high pressure over the area, with cooler temps in store to start the week.
Soundings in the area continue to show that any snow will be limited to an hour or two because we lose ice seeding from aloft and the boundary layer warms above freezing.
159 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 A cold front will slowly push through our area early this evening bringing gusty winds. High pressure settling in tonight and Sunday will bring dry conditions and lighter winds.
This afternoon through Sunday night Longwave trof is in place over most of the U.
Relatively steep lapse rates resulting in weak instability will support showers/isolated thunder with best coverage expected north of the highway 54 corridor.
The low level steering flow is rather light out of the north, but persists for much of the forecast period.
233 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2023 A pair of closed low pressure circulations between north central Idaho and southwest Montana will maintain snow showers and snow covered roadways for the southern half of the Northern Rockies through at least Sunday evening. The main message for the coming week is below normal temperatures with occasional precipitation chances as a general trough resides over the western states.
314 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 (Rest of today through Sunday) High pressure will struggle to hold over the area as a cold front approaches from the northwest to close out the weekend. The deep layered nature of the high pressure will preserve the generally dry atmospheric profile but increasing low level moisture will permit overnight and early morning fog (mainly over inland portions of the peninsula) along with diurnally driven convection this afternoon and evening. Drier air will remain along with the high pressure which will discourage convection. Warm temperatures will continue with maximum temperatures reaching into the lower 90s and minimum temperatures ranging from the mid 60s inland to the lower to mid 70s along the coasts.
Deep low pressure continues to rotate northeast over the Great Lakes, with weak high pressure over the Ozarks. Light southerly flow develops ahead of weak low pressure moving over the Midwest.
1244 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Surface analysis late this morning places yesterday's strong cold front over the Carolinas and into Southern Alabama and Mississippi. GOES-16 visible satellite trends show some post- frontal clouds over the northern third of the forecast area associated with an upper level low near Chicago. CJC Weak high pressure should keep us dry across the Midsouth through most of the weekend although a few showers may return to north Mississippi late Sunday.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed the area of low pressure responsible for the snow over western Lake Superior. A tight pressure gradient between this low pressure and high pressure over the Canadian Prairie had created wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph across eastern WI. The last of the snow should exit the lakeshore counties by early evening, however a northwest wind with cooler air moving over Lake Superior may allow for very light lake effect snow showers or flurries to move into north-central WI tonight.
* SEASONABLE-COOL START TO NEW WEEK: periodic pcpn chances, highlighting the Thu-Fri period Cooler, Canadian air flows across the region post the departing storm system today, and hangs around through at least the middle part of the new work week. KLSE will gradually see the high clouds scatter out this afternoon.
(Rest of today through Sunday) High pressure will struggle to hold over the area as a cold front approaches from the northwest to close out the weekend. The deep layered nature of the high pressure will preserve the generally dry atmospheric profile but increasing low level moisture will permit overnight and early morning fog (mainly over inland portions of the peninsula) along with diurnally driven convection this afternoon and evening. Drier air will remain along with the high pressure which will discourage convection. Warm temperatures will continue with maximum temperatures reaching into the lower 90s and minimum temperatures ranging from the mid 60s inland to the lower to mid 70s along the coasts.
A cold frontal boundary will move slowly south into our northern counties overnight, potentially drifting as far south as I-20 tomorrow before stalling. This will allow for cooler temperatures to the north of the boundary with highs in the low to mid 70s.
1249 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 (Today through Sunday Night) Warm/humid air lingering across the southern half of the CWA (ahead of a very weak cold front) has helped to keep areas of fog in place at/near the coast this morning. Clearing skies with mod- erate west winds at the lower/mid levels will produce decent insol- ating conditions this afternoon. Lows will range from the lower to mid 50s north. and the lower 60s at the immediate coast. We'll likely see the the warm/humid air mass return on Sun with the weak front lifting back north/inland as a warm front. Lows Sun night should range from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s to the south.
1224 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 (Today and tonight) West winds will ramp up again today as a surface cyclone moves southeast across the Texas Panhandle and upper level wind speeds increase. However, tonight will be much cooler than average with lows around 10 degrees colder due to efficient radiational cooling from clear skies, much calmer winds, and very dry air.
300 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Taking a look at current conditions (from the top, down): A slow-moving planetary wave has encompassed nearly the entire CONUS under a broad trough, with a series of low pressure systems embedded within. For today, one of those lobes of low pressure at 500mb remains negatively tilted along the lee of the Rockies with a secondary vort max draped across the region. However, tighten pressure gradients along the southern periphery of the low will return an uptick in winds for tomorrow, especially across southern valleys and mountain ranges. Aside from Cu, cloud cover will increase from west to east as the trough's axis approaches.
Snow was melting thanks to this and warmer temperatures moving into the area. This with a cold front is expected to fire showers and storms across eastern portions of the CWA. After this, expect zonal to SW flow to bring warmer temps to the area with highs in the 50s to near 70 by the end of the week.
138 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Strong low pressure to track through the Great Lakes today bringing strong winds and a few lingering rain showers. Weak high pressure to offer a dry period overnight into Sunday.
For the rest of today, expect stratus and fog to continue to erode from north to south as high pressure slowly slides southeast. High pressure moves across the state tonight, and into Sunday morning which will mean light winds. With abundant snowpack, fog (and stratus) will once again be possible overnight but there won't be as much moisture in the lower atmosphere as in previous nights. For Sunday, expect a mostly cloudy sky, light winds, and below normal temperatures with highs mainly in the lower 20s to lower 30s.
Temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 80s across the island chain with dew points holding in the lower 70s.
Weak high pressure will bring dry weather to the Mid-South tonight into Sunday morning.
Despite the northerly flow, temperatures have warmed into the middle to upper 70s and highs later today should reach the lower to middle 80s for most locations outside of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau.
Scattered MVFR to IFR snow showers, generally over the higher terrain.
ConsShort guidance has been doing well in capturing this morning's freezing fog and is indicating a return of freezing fog, mainly for locations north of the Missouri River, especially over Phillips and Valley Counties. Meanwhile, a trough over the Alaskan Interior will eject some of that energy into the Gulf of Alaska as a ridge located of the Aleutians amplifies, pushing this new low pressure southward towards the US West Coast.
227 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 This mornings upper low has lifted into the Great Lakes leaving behind just a CU field across the area this afternoon. Temperatures will warm up into the lower-mid 60s from St. Louis and point south and east ahead of the cold front tomorrow.
1041 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Surface analysis late this morning places yesterday's strong cold front over the Carolinas and into Southern Alabama and Mississippi. GOES-16 visible satellite trends show some post- frontal clouds over the northern third of the forecast area associated with an upper level low near Chicago. CJC Weak high pressure should keep us dry across the Midsouth through most of the weekend although a few showers may return to north Mississippi late Sunday.
257 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Cold front will cross the region this evening with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Outside of any lingering flurries across NW Iowa, should see quiet conditions prevail across the region, as Canadian high pressure builds overhead.
This apparent too in Wibaux County as MT DOT road cameras show that the highway going to the North Dakota border is still socked in. Models are having a tough time resolving the high temperatures at locations with snowcover. -Enriquez PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Once again we're getting some patchy Dense Freezing Fog forming in areas of northeast Montana. An upper level Low to our south will bring precipitation to central and southeast Montana the next couple days. A weak backdoor cold front will help hold precipitation chances to the south as well as drop our temperatures a few degrees, especially in the southern half of the CWA where bare ground helped warm things up the last couple days.
(This evening through Sunday) For this evening and overnight, another short wave trough will be approaching the area moving across northern Arizona and New Mexico. Therefore, temperatures will actually be slightly warmer on Sunday afternoon.
A stronger trough diving out of Canada will reinforce high pressure over the area, with cooler temps in store to start the week.
1047 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 A cold front will slowly push through our area early this evening bringing gusty winds. High pressure settling in tonight and Sunday will bring dry conditions and lighter winds.
831 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 A cold front will cross the local area this evening.
618 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) Dew points have precipitously dropped (30+ degF) behind the passage of an overnight surface cold front, and while temperatures have risen into the mid 80s across much of the area it has proven to be a generally benign and pleasant day. Winds will shift to the S/SE overnight with the arrival of a surface warm front, though the pressure gradient will remain relatively loose given the lack of surface cyclogenesis to our W/NW.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 758 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Strong low pressure to track through the Great Lakes into southern Canada tonight with strong winds diminishing this evening and lingering rain showers ending. Weak high pressure to offer a dry period overnight into Sunday.
This will likely be snow due to the good radiational cooling tonight which in addition to strong albedo should prevent temperatures from reaching too much above freezing.
Temperatures will be cooler than average with highs mainly in the 40s and low 50s.
Weak high pressure will move across the area early tonight followed by developing weak low pressure that will be over the region Sunday.
On Sunday afternoon, will increase pops for all the CWA, with 70%-100% pops in the high mountains by 00Z late afternoon. It looks only a smidgen warmer on Sunday.
The end result with high pressure in control is a clear sky and good setup for radiational cooling. Otherwise, expect a cooler and dry night.
Currently - The Florida Keys are ensconced within the western flank of an Atlantic ridge that stretches across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. This will ensure overnight lows stay up in the mid 70s with dew points in the lower 70s. A ridge across Florida will maintain gentle to moderate southeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
The clearing line of the low-level clouds has reached the lakeshore and continues to move eastward. Temperatures in this area have risen above freezing but there is concern that increasing winds combined with remaining glaze may lead to additional impacts into early evening.
If this happens early after the change over to snow, amounts will be on the higher side, but if not, snow amounts will be lower. Drier air from a cold high pressure system over the Dakotas will create a fairly tight precipitation gradient with a sharp cut off of the northern extent of the snowfall.
637 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Weak high pressure will bring dry weather to the Mid-South tonight into Sunday morning.
605 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 (This evening through Sunday) For this evening and overnight, another short wave trough will be approaching the area moving across northern Arizona and New Mexico. Therefore, temperatures will actually be slightly warmer on Sunday afternoon.
Dry weather and much less windy conditions return Sunday under high pressure.
434 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Taking a look at current conditions (from the top, down): A slow-moving planetary wave has encompassed nearly the entire CONUS under a broad trough, with a series of low pressure systems embedded within. For today, one of those lobes of low pressure at 500mb remains negatively tilted along the lee of the Rockies with a secondary vort max draped across the region. However, tighten pressure gradients along the southern periphery of the low will return an uptick in winds for tomorrow, especially across southern valleys and mountain ranges. Aside from Cu, cloud cover will increase from west to east as the trough's axis approaches.
628 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 This mornings upper low has lifted into the Great Lakes leaving behind just a CU field across the area this afternoon. Temperatures will warm up into the lower-mid 60s from St. Louis and point south and east ahead of the cold front tomorrow.
1059 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 A cold front will pull east of the area overnight, ushering in a blustery west wind. The low clouds over the eastern half of the commonwealth will continue to gradually scour out overnight as a drier airmass returns in the wake of the departing front. Low temps by daybreak on Sunday will range from the low 30s across the western highlands to around 40 degrees across the southeastern piedmont. Highs will range from around 50 degrees across the Allegheny Plateau to the low 60s southeast of the mountains. Clouds will begin to return Sunday night, ahead of a weak area of low pressure approaching from the Ohio Valley.
751 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Cold front will cross the region this evening with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.