Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
552 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Temperatures remain well above normal this weekend, despite a weak cold front currently entering out region. The remnant cold front may also help initiate thunderstorms across this same area as it likely stalls and retreats north during the afternoon. Sunday sees a better chance of precipitation across portions of the region as subsidence from the upper-level ridge continues to loosen its grip on the region.
504 AM MDT Sat Sep 9 2023 An upper level high continues to sit to the south with ridging extending up into the CWA. A weak mid level trough extends into the northern parts of the state with a frontal boundary at the surface that will slowly push south and southeast Saturday becoming stationary from northwest to southeast across the CWA. Any precipiation looks to be for points east of the Divide once again with any marginal severe weather for eastern portions of the state in the better dynamics into the high plains of Nebraska and South Dakota.
700 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 A cold front will become nearly stationary over Northern and Western PA today into Sunday.
616 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 The Mid-Mississippi Valley remains sandwiched between upper level ridging over the western two-thirds of the CONUS and troughing over the remaining eastern third. At the surface, high pressure centered in the Upper Midwest continues to dominate our sensible weather, providing radiational cooling conditions at night and ensuring dry, temperate conditions during the day. Sunday will be slightly warmer, being another day with abundant insolation and deep mixing. While we're experiencing another day of tranquil weather on Sunday, upper level ridging will begin to give way to an upper level troughing situated in Canada and the Upper Midwest.
740 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 Aviation --Patchy Fog possible next two mornings-- High pressure will dominate the weather pattern this weekend. The lowest should be in the lowest 2KFT and another that concise with the dry air between 3 to 5 KFT. Expect sunny skies with high temperatures rebounding into the low to mid 70s today and tomorrow.
653 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 The region will remain between high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes and a stalled front along the Appalachians through the weekend.
Mean layer ridging persists over the western North Atlantic and the southwestern US, with a mid to upper level trough axis wedged between and extending south into Florida. The low level gradient is nearly nonexistent across the Keys.
A weak disturbance moving across the northern plains will push a cold front into northwestern Kansas by this evening. The location of this front could be influenced by morning storm activity; so it is not possible to pinpoint the most favored area for strong to severe t-storms and locally heavy rain; but I suspect areas south and west of Dodge City would have the highest chance, including Ulysses, Meade, Liberal and Elkhart. If overnight and morning storms are more abundant, then temperatures could be cooler than this across much of the area.
This scenario give much of the area ample time to warm back up, and with high temperatures into the lower 100s and high dew points across our western counties, will continue with the Heat Advisory (maybe/hopefully the last one of 2023?!?). Will continue to forecast high temperatures on Sunday under 100 degrees! Look for a quiet Sunday night with lows mostly in the low to mid 70s (except around 80 at the coast and maybe some mid to upper 60s in/around our far northern counties from around the Crockett area to around the Livingston area).
Closed areas of upper level lower heights are located over The Hudson Bay, as well as, the southwest Alaska mainland. From the latter, a deep trof extends southward across The Pacific Ocean to 10 degrees north latitude. An upper level ridge extends northward from the Arizona/New Mexico higher heights through Idaho and into the Canadian British Columbia Province. As we find ourselves on the leading edge of this ridge, a northerly flow dominates through the early part of this weekend.
/SAS/ The wake of the frontal passage will leave us with relatively cooler and drier conditions today. Tonight will be much of the same as mostly clear skies prevailing with low temperatures in the lower 60s.
522 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 (Today through Sunday Night ) A closed upper low centered over the lower OH River Valley region early this Sat morning will continue to rotate south by this afternoon.
Thank a 500 mb ridge parked over Arizona, New Mexico, and Northwest Central Mexico for the heat. A few showers may make it into the Lower Texas Coastal Waters this morning.
* An approaching cold front is expected to be the focus of shower and thunderstorm development late this afternoon, resulting in a line of thunderstorms crossing the local area this evening, some of which will likely be severe.
Otherwise, a cold front moving through the area will bring low chances for showers within Minnesota this afternoon.
723 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 A slow moving cold front moves through the area today.
624 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 (Today through Sunday) A short wave trough is digging into KY early this morning and we will see this short wave close off over eastern TN today. By the afternoon instability will build under the closed low and that will bring afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances for eastern areas. The upper level low will begin to open up on Sunday and will start to lift. Highs over the weekend will be a bit blow average in the lower 80s, upper 70s over the Plateau.
646 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 (Today) A ridging west and troughing east upper level pattern continued over the greater North American domain. An upper low over the Ohio Valley, a portion of the eastern CONUS trough should move southward over the next couple of days. Lower heights associated with the low as it nears the Tennessee Valley should help lower high temperatures, more into the mid 80s today.
527 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 Decreasing clouds today with afternoon peeks of the sun beginning west of I-69 and slightly warmer temperatures today.
Subtropical moisture will creep into southern portions of our region today, traveling along the western periphery of a longwave ridge centered over the US/Mexico border. The ridge axis will begin to shift westward on Sunday, introducing more zonal flow over the region.
The lower ceilings are impacting areas from Brookings to Gold Beach and also from near Cape Blanco north to Bandon, Coos Bay and Reedsport.
High pressure over the area will result in high temperatures running around 10 degrees hotter than average this weekend. Anonymously strong high pressure will remain over the area through the weekend resulting in much warmer than normal temperatures. Highs today and Sunday will be running 7-11 degrees warmer than average depending on location and we are forecasting record highs both days for many locations including the Tucson area. The high is a bit dirty meaning there is a fair amount of mid level moisture trapped under it and that has resulted in some clouds and very light showers/sprinkles at times. Sunday the high remains the primary influence over the area although it weakens some potentially allowing for a bit more convection across a wider area.
High pressure centered over northern Michigan will dictate conditions over the local area through the weekend, maintaining dry and quiet weather. Dry air associated with this high helped scour out much of the stratus across northern and mid Michigan last evening, but early morning satellite imagery shows that the clearing line has stalled over SE Michigan where abundant moisture remains trapped beneath the inversion around 850mb. Temperatures will take a step upward for most locales today with highs in the lower 70s. Heading into Sunday, a mid-level trough will begin to drop into the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes. This will activate a stalled frontal boundary to our west and begin to move it forward as a cold front. Locally, the high pressure maintains control with light northeast flow again bringing at least partly cloudy skies to the area.
620 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 (Today through Sunday) Upper ridging centered near the Arizona-New Mexico border this morning, with an upper trough extending from western Kentucky to Florida. At the surface, high pressure extended from the Canadian Prairie Provinces into the Great Lakes. With the cooler conditions and longer nights, there are a few patches of reduced visibilities due to light radiation fog. The portion of the upper trough over western Kentucky this morning will shift southeastward to eastern Tennessee by Sunday evening.
613 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 (Today and tonight) In the wake of the weak front that moved through Oklahoma yesterday, northeast to east winds will bring a bit cooler air today though afternoon temperatures will still be 5 to 10 degrees above average. These would be associated with a weak mid- level trough moving around the northeast quadrant of the upper high along with northward-moving lower level moisture in the Texas panhandle.
High temperatures are forecast in the low 90s across much of east central Florida with upper 80s along the immediate coast. The western edge of a high pressure axis over the Atlantic waters will bring light SE flow across the Treasure Coast waters and SW winds across the Volusia waters.
Upper low over Illinois and Indiana will drift southward across Kentucky today, settling into the Tennessee Valley by late tonight.
625 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 The wake of the frontal passage will leave us with relatively cooler and drier conditions today. Tonight will be much of the same as mostly clear skies prevailing with low temperatures in the lower 60s.
High pressure associated with a cooler air mass will settle over the region today.
Forecast highs at this point are on the cooler side of guidance so have not tweaked them much up to this point, though if the stratus holds strong they may be a few degrees optimistic. Upper low over Illinois and Indiana will drift southward across Kentucky today, settling into the Tennessee Valley by late tonight.
555 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 --Patchy Fog possible next two mornings-- High pressure will dominate the weather pattern this weekend. The lowest should be in the lowest 2KFT and another that concise with the dry air between 3 to 5 KFT. Expect sunny skies with high temperatures rebounding into the low to mid 70s today and tomorrow.
With an upper low also draped over the OH/TN Valley regions, weak synoptic lift along these features should allow for iso/sct showers/tstms later this afternoon, mainly along/east of I-65.
1050 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 A cold front will become nearly stationary over Northern and Western PA today into Sunday.
Greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms will extend from the White Mountains up the Mogollon Rim and into the high terrain of Yavapai County. On Sunday, our upper-level flow becomes more zonal as the monsoonal high pressure area weakens and shifts south into Mexico.
The frontal boundary will settle into north Florida and dissipate as weak ridging remains across the peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms developing across the area through the afternoon, with highs reaching into the lower 90s, with a few pockets of mid 90s possible.
539 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 (Today and tonight) Quiet weather is expected for a majority of today under the influence of an upper ridge centered over southern AZ/NM.
Upper level ridge over Western Washington today will shift east tonight. Front arriving late Sunday will weaken considerably as it runs into the backside of the ridge.
215 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 1) Dry conditions will largely remain in place, with the exception for some isolated showers along the Highway 20 corridor late tonight 2) Seasonal temperatures remain in place An area of high pressure will remain anchored to the western Great Lakes region for the remainder of the day through tonight. The most likely areas to see any precipitation will be along the Highway 20 corridor, where there will be more favorable moisture. Seasonal temperatures will continue, with lows tonight in the lower to middle 50s and highs Sunday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
An upper low/trough axis also remains layered over the OH/TN Valley regions. Mild conditions are then expected into the overnight period, with lows mainly in the lower/mid 60s.
155 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 A slow moving cold front moves through the area today.
119 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 Decreasing clouds today with afternoon peeks of the sun beginning west of I-69 and slightly warmer temperatures today.
Central Alabama will primarily stay on the upstream side of the trough axis within northwesterly flow, and this will ensure that some measure of dry mid-level air will be in place over the area. Most of the rain associated with the trough is still expected to remain east of the area today, but some isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms may develop across our northeast counties this afternoon closer to the low center.
1212 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 (Rest of today through Sunday) An inverted trough has set up along the Appalachians and extends all the way into the Gulf of Mexico.
335 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 Key Messages: * Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, focused along a slow moving cold front crossing the region.
Any lingering fair weather cumulus in the area will give way to mid and high clouds through the evening, ahead of an approaching slow moving cold front. The best fog potential will be across far north- central WI where on and off showers will arrive first, helping saturate the lower levels. The cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer than last night, with lows in the middle 50s. Sunday, the weak cold front will continue to cross the region in the morning to early afternoon, followed by the arrival of the next 500mb vort max Sunday evening. High temperatures will also be a few degrees cooler than today, ranging from the lower 60s in the far north to the lower 70s near the Fox Valley and lakeshore.
Temperatures have hit the lower 80s in southern MN into western Wi where warm advection will continue this afternoon, but ongoing showers will limit high temperatures to the 60s/low 70s across western and central MN. A cooler, drier airmass filters into the upper Midwest behind the front tonight through Sunday, but the lingering cyclonic flow will mean that cloud cover and possibly a few showers will persists through Sunday, especially across western WI. Cooler temperatures persist into midweek as troughing digs in over the Great Lakes and a broad region of Canadian high pressure influences the sfc pattern across the upper Midwest.
The main area of energy associated with this trough will track from southeastern Montana to south central South Dakota late tonight into Sunday morning. At the surface, scattered rain showers associated with a low pressure system continue across parts of the area this afternoon, with the main area now over the southeastern CWA. High pressure has begun to drop in from the north, and expect it to aid in moving the precipitation out of the area late this afternoon. The high will then drop further to the south, bringing dry conditions to the entire area Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
1241 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 The wake of the frontal passage will leave us with relatively cooler and drier conditions today. Tonight will be much of the same as mostly clear skies prevailing with low temperatures in the lower 60s.
We also observed a cloudline establishing itself along the Lower Keys several hours earlier than yesterday. Offshore marine platforms are observing light to gentle breezes out of the east to southeast becoming a bit more variable towards the Lower Keys. The persistent cloudline over the Lower Keys also looks to have lost its structure and is trying to meekly reform with no real depth seen yet. In the short term, the same sensible weather pattern will continue to hold as the Keys are locked between two cells of the subtropical ridge with a mid to upper level trough acting as the divide.
1151 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Temperatures remain well above normal this weekend, despite a weak cold front currently entering out region. The remnant cold front may also help initiate thunderstorms across this same area as it likely stalls and retreats north during the afternoon. Sunday sees a better chance of precipitation across portions of the region as subsidence from the upper-level ridge continues to loosen its grip on the region.
All active weather removed well to our east and west, the former tied to stalled surface boundary and broad mid level troughing, with the latter tied to deepening trough axis punching into the northern Plains. High pressure will slowly move off to the east tonight as upstream troughing and weak surface reflection reach the northwest Great Lakes by sunrise Sunday. Details: Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies to start tonight does give way to some increasing high and mid level clouds overnight with approach of that upstream troughing.
Showers and storms associated with the upper energy in western NY/PA will track east through the evening and clusters of showers and storms will track through eastern NY and western New England this evening and night as the upper energy drifts east, catching up with the diffuse low level forcing along the low level boundary. Any Sunday morning showers and storms should exit shortly after daybreak but clouds will linger as upper energy continues to drift east and weaken, once again, enhancing low level forcing along the diffuse and weak cold front.
(Rest of today through Sunday) An inverted trough has set up along the Appalachians and extends all the way into the Gulf of Mexico.
1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 (Today and tonight) In the wake of the weak front that moved through Oklahoma yesterday, northeast to east winds will bring a bit cooler air today though afternoon temperatures will still be 5 to 10 degrees above average. These would be associated with a weak mid- level trough moving around the northeast quadrant of the upper high along with northward-moving lower level moisture in the Texas panhandle.
207 PM MDT Sat Sep 9 2023 AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: A positively-tilted 500 hPa trough is providing the synoptic-scale lift for light showers present generally north of the Hi-Line. The trough axis shifts slightly on Sunday, with a progged vort max to move from southwest to northeast, mainly in southeastern Montana, keeping the chances for precipitation south of the CWA, with a brief chance for afternoon showers, all while temperatures remain near-normal.
Tonight and Sunday Afternoon satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across eastern Idaho as a weak ridge of high pressure remains in control across the region. Lows overnight will run on the warmer side of average for much of the area but especially into the Snake Plain and Magic Valley despite mostly clear skies overnight.
This should change this evening as a plume of moisture works its way across Utah and into the CWA along a jet streak pushing over the top of an elongated high pressure center parked along Baja Mexico. With the lower levels still pretty dry, a few of these showers will be capable of some gusty outflows this evening.
The influence of the upper trough to the northeast closer to Hudson Bay, and west- northwest flow locally will keep moisture return cutoff and drier/stable conditions through the day Sunday. Late Sunday night another trough rotates through NW flow and additional showers may begin to develop into the region.
(Through Sunday) The presence of a weak upper level trough and a moderately unstable airmass is expected to lead to scattered convection this afternoon into early this evening.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Super Saturday going around here with air temps right around 90 degrees along and south of I-20 and cooler mid 80s for many locales northward. Dew points are wonderful in the low to mid 60s everywhere except still upper 60s in deep east TX.
In addition, there are bands of positive vorticity advection from 850- 500mb that drape across the eastern half of the CWA as the mid-level ridge ever so slowly shifts westward into northwestern Mexico through the weekend.
1107 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 The region will remain between high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes and a stalled front along the Appalachians through the weekend.
1158 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 The Mid-Mississippi Valley remains sandwiched between upper level ridging over the western two-thirds of the CONUS and troughing over the remaining eastern third. At the surface, high pressure centered in the Upper Midwest continues to dominate our sensible weather, providing radiational cooling conditions at night and ensuring dry, temperate conditions during the day. Sunday will be slightly warmer, being another day with abundant insolation and deep mixing. While we're experiencing another day of tranquil weather on Sunday, upper level ridging will begin to give way to an upper level troughing situated in Canada and the Upper Midwest.
Latest WPC analysis has a warm front depicted across North GA into the Carolinas, this feature interacting with another low that is forecast to dip down from TN may act to enhance precip thus localized flooding will be a growing concern through the evening particularly across northeast GA. The weather setup will largely be unchanged --- upper troughing over the southeast and frontal boundary draped across the forecast area.
329 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 A cold front will become nearly stationary over Northern and Western PA today into Sunday.
An upper level ridge centered over the Arizona-New Mexico border has keep temperatures in our area slightly above normal, and as the ridge moves west, those highs will remain consistent through the weekend. Ensemble models show the ridge will then move south and a more zonal flow will take over and cause highs to dip to around normal for this time of year, which would be in the low 90's for the San Joaquin Valley.
And all it took was a cold front. Plus we will continue with the light NE breeze from high pressure anchored in the midWest U. /24/ (Sunday Night through Saturday) As alluded in my discussion above, cooler temperatures are here for the time being. The large death ridge that has been parked over our region for what seems like years will finally have no influence on our area.
Instability will weaken and an upper level ridge moving in will reduce moisture over the region, so strong storms are not expected.
Tonight and Sunday, a moist environment will remain in place as a mid/upper level trough lingers over the area.
Generally for the land areas, the next couple days will be fairly dry overall thanks to the lower humidities and drier environment. Highs will be in the low 90s and thanks to the low dewpoints and humidities, heat index values are forecast to be hovering right around the mid 90s.
3" along the Sierra crest and only a few hundredths in the lower valleys. For the upcoming week, high pressure aloft will flatten and allow zonal flow to overspread the Sierra and western Nevada.
This seems reasonable given the inverted trough and covergent surface winds in that area. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, with highest chances across the higher terrain and Cumberland Plateau. Discussion: Mid/upper level troughing remains in place early this morning and will be slow to move through the day today. At the surface, high pressure sits across the Great Lakes with an area of low pressure across the northern GoM. Upper level troughing will continue to place the area within broad ascent. Showers and storms will develop this afternoon with the better chances being across the higher terrain, and across the Cumberland Plateau.
/21 (Now through Sunday) With upper level troughing rooted over the eastern CONUS and dry air remaining firmly in place across the forecast area we should have a fairly quiet weekend in terms of weather. I have kept dewpoints lowered across the area given the dry airmass in place hovering in the lower to middle 60's for the weekend, but not quite as low as they were yesterday.