Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
927 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 As a cold front pushes offshore this morning, high pressure will rebuild over the area through much of the upcoming week. Coastal low pressure could affect the region late week into the weekend. Today: Aloft, the region will remain under the influence of a trough extending southward from a low centered across the eastern Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front will shift offshore this morning and dry high pressure will prevail through the rest of the day. Forecast highs are in the low to mid 80s, with a few upper 80s possible along and south of I- 16. Tonight: High pressure will prevail with only a few thin cirrus passing through overnight.
545 AM MDT Mon Sep 18 2023 An approaching jet streak and collapsing ridge will come into play for the early week forecast. The jet streak hangs around Tuesday keeping the West Slope in the broad shallow ridge for another day. Meanwhile, the closed low off the California coast moves ashore near Point Conception by 12Z/Wed.
648 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 As a cold front pushes offshore this morning, high pressure will rebuild over the area through much of the upcoming week. Coastal low pressure could affect the region late week into the weekend. Today: Aloft, the region will remain under the influence of a trough extending southward from a low centered across the eastern Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front will shift offshore this morning and dry high pressure will prevail through the rest of the day. Forecast highs are in the low to mid 80s, with a few upper 80s possible along and south of I- 16. Tonight: High pressure will prevail with only a few thin cirrus passing through overnight.
Meanwhile, cooler temperatures (in the lower to mid 70s) are anticipated for northeast Alabama and portions of southern middle Tennessee, especially in the elevated terrain locations.
The upper level trough will drift east of the region today, causing upper flow and residual vort advection to occur out of the northwest. Any precipitation likely will be light as column moisture will be on the lower side. The trough moving through will finally exit into the New England region by Tuesday.
Weak MLCAPE values between 200-400 J/kg and insufficient shear will likely lead to scattered thunderstorms and showers developing in the higher terrain.
In the meantime, the latest deterministic models as well as CAMs indicate that a warm front will develop near the MO/IA border by this evening. Otherwise, expecting increasing mid and high clouds with slightly warmer temperatures, in the low 50s to around 60 degrees for lows. However, low level moisture return will remain limited, thus precipitation chances will be on the low end, between 20-40%.
545 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Upper level trough moves through early today. High pressure Monday night through the end of the work week. An upper level trough will move through the area early today, producing a few showers. Even as the trough lifts out later today, some lingering moisture and low level instability could produce some showers. A high pressure system will then build over the area Monday night providing dry weather. Key Points: * High pressure over the area, keeping conditions dry. High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in place for the short term period keeping conditions dry.
Low amplitude trough currently moving over southern California into Nevada is forecast to progress over the central Rockies today and tonight, then amplifying over Kansas and Oklahoma tomorrow.
1026 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Upper level trough moves through early today. High pressure Monday night through the end of the work week. An upper level trough will move through the area early today, producing a few showers. Even as the trough lifts out later today, some lingering moisture and low level instability could produce some showers. A high pressure system will then build over the area Monday night providing dry weather. Key Points: * High pressure over the area, keeping conditions dry. High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in place for the short term period keeping conditions dry.
628 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Mid-level ridging builds in the short term period and will result in rather quiet conditions. H85 temps still in the upper teens to around 20 resulting in high temperatures still above normal, in the lower to mid 90s. Tomorrow looks a touch warmer on temps, and near the coast dewpoints will begin to inch up as onshore flow redevelops.
Through the next couple of days, the low off of the Pacific Northwest will continue to gradually move southward. What this means for the region is a gradual cooling trend with highs through Tuesday ranging in the upper 90s across the western deserts to around 100 degrees across the lower deserts of south-central AZ. This will continue to signify even more cooling such that most of the lower desert communities will likely observe temperatures below normal with highs mostly in the lower to middle 90s. In addition, with the trough amplifying across the Great Basin region, the regional pressure gradient will be tightening such that enhanced breeziness is expected.
504 AM MDT Mon Sep 18 2023 An approaching jet streak and collapsing ridge will come into play for the early week forecast. The jet streak hangs around Tuesday keeping the West Slope in the broad shallow ridge for another day. Meanwhile, the closed low off the California coast moves ashore near Point Conception by 12Z/Wed.
(Today through Tuesday) The frontal system that moved through the region yesterday has ushered in a much drier and cooler airmass into the area. Can expect to see similar conditions Tuesday with morning lows just a few degrees cooler than today.
628 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 (Today through Tuesday) This AM, a secondary cold front is at our door step about to enter the NW portions of C AL. It is expected to push SSEWD across the state today to help reinforce the cooler and drier airmass in the area. With surface ridging in control for the short term, look for minimal cloud cover and generally sunny/clear skies. Lower humidities and cooler readings will call for pleasant weather in the short term. Light NW winds 5-10kts will be present today behind the front and light winds tonight into Tuesday as ridging builds.
651 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Dry high pressure will dominate our weather through the work week.
646 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Today and Tonight: In the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage, northerly flow has continued to advect drier air into the region. Given the high pressure, dry air, and mostly clear skies, also nudged overnight lows slightly cooler toward MOS values tonight. Hi-res guidance continues to show the trough axis retreating east towards the Carolinas as the low pressure system tracks northeastward towards the upper east coast. Behind this retreating trough is a well-defined ridge axis that is expected to shift east across the Lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday morning. With the ridge axis upstream, winds will be somewhat westerly across the entire forecast area.
Mid-level ridging over Baja California this morning will gradually build into the region through the short term. Temperatures tonight are expected to be a degree or two cooler with dry air in place.
By Tuesday, expect a dry and warmer day with 90s across most areas.
Broad troughing aloft remains over the region through the week before ridging builds upstream from the Central Plains into SE Canada, cutting off the trough from the main flow with a closed low aloft forming over the SE U.
(Now through Tuesday) Very pleasant weather conditions are expected for the near term period as upper troughing lifts away from our area to the northeast and high pressure builds in from the north.
Today will be the start of a warming trend as high pressure builds in from the west and south-southwest low level flow sets ups. Thus, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday- highs climbing into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
As a trough moves over the Pacific Northwest, will see the flow over the Northern Plains shift to a more southwesterly direction on Tuesday. At the surface, a trough currently to the west of the area will gradually slide over the central part of the country by tonight, then remains nearly stationary through the day Tuesday. The southerly flow over the area will usher warmer air in both today and Tuesday, and will see afternoon temperatures around 10 degrees above normal. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s.
455 AM MDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Current surface map places trough across far eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota.
A progressive longwave trough axis is located over far eastern Kentucky and Tennessee, and will rapidly move east through the remainder of the period.
608 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Upper level trough is departing to the east and should leave behind dry and pleasant conditions. Tuesday lee troughing over the plains looks to shift our low level flow more southerly.
620 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 A trough will linger over the region today, but high pressure will build into the area tonight and persist through the end of the week. Widely scattered lake-enhanced showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the snowbelt region of NE OH/NW PA through today thanks to an upper trough meandering across the lower Great Lakes and cold air advection over Lake Erie.
1) Areas of fog to continue early this morning, mainly along and east of the MS River 2) Chances of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two increase after sunset tonight A quiet start to the work week is expected today, thanks to high pressure dominating over the Corn Belt region. Quiet conditions should prevail into the early evening hours, with the high pressure ridge axis translating eastward with time. Southerly low-level return flow around the ridge will enhance warm air advection into our region tonight, which will set the stage for increasing chances of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two late tonight.
649 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night) Not much in the way of active weather is expected in the immediate term as a midlevel ridge continues to build into the area to our SW. The intrusion of drier air will become fairly noticeable this afternoon as advection and diurnal mixing work to push surface dew points down into the lower 50s across most inland areas and the upper 50s to 60s closer to the coast. However, with ow wind speeds dampening the rate of advection and relatively efficient diurnal mixing, we should still see most locations carrying dew points in the low to mid 60s during the afternoon.
706 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Aviation A high pressure ridge will gradually build in today and bring pleasant wx with partly cloudy skies and seasonable temps. Min temps tonight will range from the upper 30s up north to the lower to middle 40s across most of our area with mostly clear skies and calm winds resulting in excellent radiational cooling conditions. However the vast majority of our area will stay dry with no measurable rainfall Tuesday given sfc ridging and a dry airmass still in place until better moisture advection begins Tuesday night. Tuesday night 850mb to 700mb warm air advection kicks in along with the low level jet.
A quiet day ahead as upper ridging moves over the region. Breezy south winds can be expected by this afternoon as lee side troughing tightens the pressure gradient over much of central and eastern KS.
Cooler and better rain chances will last through the first half of the week.
Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above average to start the week, before a trough brings some breeziness and knocks temperatures down a few degrees later in the week.
527 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Southeast Michigan will be situated between weak high pressure building into the western Great Lakes and departing low pressure to the east. Southeast Michigan now within the immediate wake of a high amplitude mid level trough axis, leaving deeper layer north-northwest flow to govern conditions to start the work week. Deep layer stability held within confluent mid level northwest flow atop surface ridging ensures benign conditions with a high degree of early day insolation potential Tuesday.
High temperatures are forecast to rise into the middle 80s to middle 90s with low temperatures falling into the lower to upper 50s. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s.
Overnight lows in the U60s to L70s, with some normally cooler inland locations possibly realizing M60s for mins.
1014 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Isolated lake enhanced showers will linger today as a low pressure system advances east. Seasonable to above average temperatures will return mid-week with building high pressure.
523 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Not quite as cool west of the mountains for today and Tuesday as low pressure aloft weakens slightly and with the marine layer not quite as deep.
431 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Today and Tonight: In the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage, northerly flow has continued to advect drier air into the region. Given the high pressure, dry air, and mostly clear skies, also nudged overnight lows slightly cooler toward MOS values tonight. Hi-res guidance continues to show the trough axis retreating east towards the Carolinas as the low pressure system tracks northeastward towards the upper east coast. Behind this retreating trough is a well-defined ridge axis that is expected to shift east across the Lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday morning. With the ridge axis upstream, winds will be somewhat westerly across the entire forecast area.
Until then, temperature maximums will reach the lower 90s today under a fairly dry atmospheric column with PWATs below an inch and minimum RH percentage values in the 20s and 30s. That said, temperatures will fall toward minimums in the low-to- mid 60s tonight (some lower 50s likely in SW Arkansas) before warming back up toward maximums in the lower 90s once again tomorrow.
717 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Warmer today with a few rain showers giving way to improving conditions this evening into tonight.
The light smoke/haze should gradually clear the region today as the upper level ridge shifts east and collapses, leaving clear skies and slightly warmer conditions. These dry conditions will allow the slightly warmer than normal temperatures to continue, with highs in the mid 80s. Currently, the highest rain chances (50-70%) are west of the Highway 65 corridor. Normal to slightly cooler than normal temperatures are likely through the remainder of the work week along with occasional scattered rain chances, though temperatures will ultimately be impacted by the extent of convection and cloud cover.
922 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 A trough will linger over the region today, but high pressure will build into the area tonight and persist through the end of the week. Widely scattered lake-enhanced showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the snowbelt region of NE OH/NW PA through today thanks to an upper trough meandering across the lower Great Lakes and cold air advection over Lake Erie.
130 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Better clearing of the low clouds will occur this afternoon and Tuesday under a deep but weakening marine layer. This will result in slightly warmer weather as well.
1138 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 It will be warmer today with a few rain showers over the northern tier this afternoon.
Deterministic models maintain a persistent dry pattern for Tuesday as the sub-tropical mid-level ridge west of the area begins to nudge eastward.
315 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 High pressure continues to build in the wake of the frontal passage this past weekend.
This ridge will push southeast of the area overnight tonight, with increasing southerly return flow across the bi-state area. The stronger southerly flow along with at least some uptick in clouds tonight will lead to much warmer conditions for most of the area. Dry weather is also forecast tonight, with any rain chances staying to our north (eastern Iowa, far northern Illinois) where low-level moisture advection is stronger along/poleward of a retreating warm front. Temperatures will be quite a bit warmer on Tuesday compared to today as the combination of a milder start to the day, at least partial sunshine, and persistent low-level warm air advection leading to highs in the low to mid 80s. These readings would be several degrees warmer than normal for the date.
This afternoon, a ridge of high pressure stretches from the lower and mid Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong mid level warm air advection will develop this evening and overnight upstream of the ridge axis on the nose of a strengthening low level jet.
901 AM MDT Mon Sep 18 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with hot high pressure over the Four Corners and a ridge rising north through Wyoming and eastern Montana. To the northwest a large cool core trough has setup over British Columbia. Today through Tuesday: Cold front from southern Alberta will come barreling through the region. Cooler air will continue to cycle into the region dragging Highs further down into the 60s and 70s Tuesday.
Dew points will once more be in the 40s to low 50s; however, with warmer daytime highs, the RH is expected to be in the middle 20 percent range from the Red River Valley westward. The highest wind potential will be in and around the Devils Lake Basin, with slightly lower winds for the northern Red River Valley and points south.
After some morning fog, high pressure will bring light winds and clear skies to the area. Southerly flow will continue to overspread the region tonight, as the high retreats to the east. Precip will slide eastward across southern Wisconsin Tuesday morning, mainly south of I-94, dissipating with time as the low level jet weakens.
Temperatures will be a little warmer tomorrow, with highs in the low to mid 90s, with lows tonight in the 60s.
1242 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 A quiet day ahead as upper ridging moves over the region. Breezy south winds can be expected by this afternoon as lee side troughing tightens the pressure gradient over much of central and eastern KS.
Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above average today and Tuesday, before a trough brings some breeziness and knocks temperatures down a few degrees later in the week.
Isolated light showers developed ahead of an approaching weak cold front. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but still around 5 degrees above normal.
1241 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Mid-level ridging builds in the short term period and will result in rather quiet conditions. H85 temps still in the upper teens to around 20 resulting in high temperatures still above normal, in the lower to mid 90s. Tomorrow looks a touch warmer on temps, and near the coast dewpoints will begin to inch up as onshore flow redevelops.
1030 AM MDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Current surface map places trough across far eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota.
215 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 High pressure building over the area this afternoon will persist through at least mid week with dry conditions and pleasant temperatures. A coastal low or coastal trough is forecast impact the area late in the week. Clear skies and light winds expected tonight as high pressure continues to build over the area. The immediate coast will be milder with lows in the low to mid 60s. Ridging will be the dominate feature early this week leading to a calm, clear, and dry couple of days.
We have temperatures around the 25th percentile among model guidance tonight since the model blend starting point may still have a slight warm bias to shorter nights and a warmer pattern in recent weeks. Good mixing today to help vertically redistribute some of the low level moisture should help keep fog coverage and magnitude more limited than early this morning.
415 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 High pressure is centered over the lower Ohio, mid Mississippi valleys this afternoon and will drift eastward tonight, settling more directly overhead, or the mid Ohio Valley region by early Tuesday morning. Ridge lines (thermal belt) are expected to drop into the lower 50s tonight, and only mid 50s tomorrow night. Ridge valley splits should be larger tomorrow night with southerly return flow beginning to kick back in across the region as high pressure continues to move to the east. Upper level ridging will extend from the Mid Atlantic and into the Ohio Valley and upper Great Lakes and another stronger area centered over Mexico will extend into the southern Plains.
Upper ridging is expected to flatten later tonight and Tuesday. The low level winds should adhere to normal diurnal wind patterns tonight and Tuesday. However, the high based convection will produce some locally strong outflow wind gusts. For moisture, the lower levels over the plains will stay fairly dry tonight and Tuesday, with dew points in the mid 30s to mid 40s F through Tuesday.
1246 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night) Not much in the way of active weather is expected in the immediate term as a midlevel ridge continues to build into the area to our SW. The intrusion of drier air will become fairly noticeable this afternoon as advection and diurnal mixing work to push surface dew points down into the lower 50s across most inland areas and the upper 50s to 60s closer to the coast. However, with ow wind speeds dampening the rate of advection and relatively efficient diurnal mixing, we should still see most locations carrying dew points in the low to mid 60s during the afternoon.
203 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Upper level trough moves through early today. High pressure Monday night through the end of the work week. A weak surface boundary accompanying a departing upper level trough swings through the area into late this evening. Outside of faint radar returns currently on radar, should only see the passing afternoon cu field and isolated light rain showers as the main features of note before high pressure arrives late tonight. Key Points: * High pressure over the area, keeping conditions dry. High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in place for the short term period keeping conditions dry.
222 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Dry high pressure will dominate our weather through the work week.
The synoptic pattern consists of an upper level ridge over Mexico with an upper level short wave moving through western Canada and the Intermountain West. Towards the surface, lee troughing currently across eastern Colorado will slowly shift eastward tonight and bisect the CWA tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees with lows tomorrow night ranging from the low 50s across west central Kansas to low 60s across central Kansas.
1250 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Dry high pressure will dominate our weather through the work week.
110 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 A trough will linger over the region today, but high pressure will build into the area tonight and persist through the end of the week. Widely scattered lake-enhanced showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the snowbelt region of NE OH/NW PA through today thanks to an upper trough meandering across the lower Great Lakes and cold air advection over Lake Erie.
Upper level trough is departing to the east and should leave behind dry and pleasant conditions. Tuesday lee troughing over the plains looks to shift our low level flow more southerly.
131 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Aviation A high pressure ridge will gradually build in today and bring pleasant wx with partly cloudy skies and seasonable temps. Min temps tonight will range from the upper 30s up north to the lower to middle 40s across most of our area with mostly clear skies and calm winds resulting in excellent radiational cooling conditions. However the vast majority of our area will stay dry with no measurable rainfall Tuesday given sfc ridging and a dry airmass still in place until better moisture advection begins Tuesday night. Tuesday night 850mb to 700mb warm air advection kicks in along with the low level jet.