Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level low pressure system which has brought cooler temperatures and some precipitation to our area, continues to spin along the California coast. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday, mainly over the Sierra, as the upper low moves overhead.
Moisture in the low levels, coupled with light wind has led to fog development over the Coastal Plains. An upper-level ridge is currently in place over south Texas. There's a low chance of showers and thunderstorms (around 20-30%) on Thursday as the upper level ridge shifts east and PWAT values increase to around 1.
430 AM CDT Wed May 3 2023 Current surface analysis places broad high pressure over the plains into the Midwest, with rather modest low pressure to the west. Resultant ridge between the two systems stretches up along and a bit to the lee of the Rockies. Blocking pattern starts to break down on Thursday, though the day should remain rather quiet with a developing east to northeasterly wind.
309 AM PDT Wed May 3 2023 Plenty of showers remain on the radar scope this morning as an upper level low remains situated to our south. It's worth nothing temperatures are anticipated to trend slightly cooler on Thursday.
Highly amplified upper level pattern over North America, with two large upper level troughs/lows occupying the West coast and the eastern third of the CONUS. The center of the trough/500 MB circulation impacting Southeast Michigan was situated in between the Central/Eastern Great Lakes. As much as we would like to dissipate the clouds, probably better enough moisture remains trapped in the low levels tonight as heights rebound, otherwise fog and/or frost will become an issue as winds drop off significantly and become nearly calm by Thursday morning.
529 AM MDT Wed May 3 2023 The strong ridge of high pressure over the region earlier in the week shifted just east of the Continental Divide during the night and has taken on a slight negative tilt. Meanwhile, the deep mid- level closed low pressure system which forced the ridge to the east continued to spin just off the coast of the Bay Area of California early this morning.
(Now through Thursday) Dry northwesterly flow aloft continues through Thursday, as upper ridging lingers over the Central Plains and an upper low pushes out over the western Atlantic. Down at the surface, high pressure centered over the Mississippi Valley remains in control. Highs on Thursday will be a few degrees warmer with highs topping out in the lower to middle 80s as the upper ridging starts to build east.
High pressure will build across the region by the end of the workweek. The primary thing to watch today will be low pressure moving off the mid-Atlantic states. Water vapor satellite showed a deep upper low across the Great Lakes region, and a narrow ridge stretching north from TX to the northern Rockies. At the surface, a 996 mb low was across upstate NY with a trough sagging south across the Appalachians, and a 1018 mb high across the central Plains. The surface and upper low will begin to move southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast through tonight.
Zonal flow will persist today with a ridge beginning to build over the state of Texas tomorrow. Highs will be a bit warmer tomorrow in the upper 80s.
1055 AM EDT Wed May 3 2023 The surface cold front has cleared eastern Kentucky, with light shower activity winding down across our far eastern counties. With the mostly dry cold front, a few showers are occurring and will continue for the next few hours before dissipating later this morning. High pressure continues into Thursday with mostly clear skies and temperatures climbing into the mid to upper-60s. The period will start with surface ridging over the region beneath west northwest flow aloft, ahead of upper level ridging over the central CONUS. This will allow warm/moist advection off the gulf to progress eastward on the back side of the departing ridge. As the upper level ridge approaches, a couple of smaller scale waves will propagate eastward through it.
Forecast Discussion: Current conditions very early this morning consist of an expansive area of high pressure over the central US, allowing for clear skies and light winds in northeast KS. Aloft, the pattern resembles an omega blocking pattern with two cutoff lows, one near each coastline, and an amplified ridge in between. Under a dominant high pressure regime, pleasant weather is expected for the CWA today. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday, reaching the low to mid 70s area-wide. A disturbance rounding the southeastern flank of the upper low off the California coast will bring increasing chances for precipitation later this week. Initially, widely scattered showers and isolated storms could develop as isentropic ascent increases on the nose of the low level jet late tonight and early tomorrow morning.
While snowmelt has slowed due to the cooler temps, waterways continue to run high. Our nearly stationary area of low pressure continues to sit and spin along the CA coast, currently centered near the Bay Area. This is due to the low pressure center pivoting and elongating in response to an upstream jet segment wrapping into the western periphery of the upper low.
With the mostly dry cold front, a few showers are occurring and will continue for the next few hours before dissipating later this morning. High pressure continues into Thursday with mostly clear skies and temperatures climbing into the mid to upper-60s. The period will start with surface ridging over the region beneath west northwest flow aloft, ahead of upper level ridging over the central CONUS. This will allow warm/moist advection off the gulf to progress eastward on the back side of the departing ridge. As the upper level ridge approaches, a couple of smaller scale waves will propagate eastward through it.
A dissipating frontal boundary stretching across Florida is producing partly cloudy skies this morning with temps in the low to mid 70's. Weak high pressure builds into the area later this evening into Thursday with pleasant weather expected. Daytime highs will top out in the low 80's north and along the coast with upper 80's expected over the interior. Overnight lows will drop to the low 50's north to low 60's for central and southwest Florida. High pressure builds into the southeast U.
The upper level low continues downstream to Central and Southern California as it weakens, although its influence on our CWA persists. Moisture is plentiful as the 700mb heights show dense plumes rotating around the low. Otherwise, the low pressure system over California will continue to bring wet unsettled weather, though at a lesser extent as it diminishes and gets absorbed back into the greater wave pattern as a diffuse disturbance. A large upper low near KSFO will continue to meander over N central CA while gradually filling. Isolated to scattered showers continue to move E to W across the area on the periphery of the low.
611 AM CDT Wed May 3 2023 (Today) The low pressure system that has remained centered over the Great Lakes the past few days is expected to finally move off toward the East Coast today.
The trough and associated LLJ is pulling out to the northeast which will also take the gustiest winds with it. These isolated/scattered showers will continue through the first half of the day as the last spoke of vorticity is currently moving through the trough base that still resides over our area. The gradient begins to become a little more relaxed by this evening as high pressure begins to nudge in from the southwest, pushing the trough to our east. Because of the lighter winds and clear skies, tonight will be the coldest night we have seen since the trough has been in place.
The Omega Block taking shape over the CONUS supports a broad band of westerlies across Florida, although the mean-layer ridge centered over the Caribbean is holding strong. Bands of cirrus along the northwestern flank of the ridge are streaming northeastward across the Keys this morning.
(Today) The low pressure system that has remained centered over the Great Lakes the past few days is expected to finally move off toward the East Coast today.
530 AM CDT Wed May 3 2023 (Today) High pressure at the sfc continues to gradually build eastward into the Midwest/lower MS Valley regions this early Wed morning, as a benign NW flow pattern remains in place over much of the SE states.
(Rest of Today) High pressure will continue to build east towards the area today.
709 AM EDT Wed May 3 2023 (Today through Thursday) Low/Mid level dry air funneled around the western side of deep- layer low pressure will preclude any shower or thunderstorm development today. Not much of a change going into Thursday besides slightly higher heights as the deep upper low begins to depart to the northeast and ridging begins moving into the eastern CONUS.
Current surface analysis places broad high pressure over the plains into the Midwest, with rather modest low pressure to the west. Resultant ridge between the two systems stretches up along and a bit to the lee of the Rockies. Blocking pattern starts to break down on Thursday, though the day should remain rather quiet with a developing east to northeasterly wind.
712 AM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Aviation - Rain Finally Ends Early Today - There are still just a few lingering rain showers early this morning as the last vorticity max rotates around the upper low. The main low pressure system will finally slide off to our east this morning and high pressure will take its place leading to dry weather for much of today. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than the last two days with highs peaking in the low to mid 50s.
610 AM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Strong troughing remains anchored over the eastern CONUS today leading to another breezy day.
611 AM CDT Wed May 3 2023 (Today through Thursday) Dry conditions will continue to prevail through Thursday afternoon due to surface ridging influences and dry northwesterly flow aloft.
The higher elevations will see late-season accumulating snow. Satellite imagery shows the closed low remains off the coast near the Bay Area.
Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the low to upper 80s. Lows are projected to drop into the low to upper 50s with the exception of coastal Martin county where the low 60s are forecast.
617 AM EDT Wed May 3 2023 (Today and tonight) The tri-state area remains underneath northwest flow aloft, essentially in between an east coast trough and ridging through the high Plains. A weak frontal boundary passed by overnight and now high pressure will build in from the southern Plains. Highs today will be in the low 80s throughout the Florida panhandle to the upper 70s through the wiregrass.
A storm system lingering to the west will result in breezy afternoons and cooler temperatures through the coming weekend. Ultimately it will shear into the front side of mean trough position through the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest under a large scale omega pattern over much of North America. A second impulse rotating into the bottom of the trough will again pass to our northwest over the weekend.
347 AM MDT Wed May 3 2023 The strong ridge of high pressure over the region earlier in the week shifted just east of the Continental Divide during the night and has taken on a slight negative tilt. Meanwhile, the deep mid- level closed low pressure system which forced the ridge to the east continued to spin just off the coast of the Bay Area of California early this morning.
621 AM CDT Wed May 3 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) Increasing southeasterly flow at the surface and ridging aloft will lead to warmer conditions across SE Texas today and Thursday with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the low 60s north of Harris County, mid 60s along the I-10 corridor, and to near 70 along the coast. Overnight low become unseasonably warm Thursday night due to the southeasterly flow and overcast skies causing low temperatures to only dip into the low to mid 70s for most of the region.
138 PM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Cool and damp weather continues today as slow moving low pressure tracks east. Dry weather and milder temperatures are forecast to accompany high pressure on Thursday. A warming trend and a low threat for showers are expected this weekend as high pressure lingers along the Atlantic Coast. Widespread cloud cover and a few isolated showers will generally be on the decrease today as low pressure over the Great Lakes inches slowly east.
1134 AM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Update Low pressure has moved well off to the east both at the surface and aloft into central/eastern portions of the state of New York at 1100 AM. Highs in the low to mid 50s should be realized if we see some sunshine this afternoon. - Rain Finally Ends Early Today - There are still just a few lingering rain showers early this morning as the last vorticity max rotates around the upper low. The main low pressure system will finally slide off to our east this morning and high pressure will take its place leading to dry weather for much of today. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than the last two days with highs peaking in the low to mid 50s.
Winds will still be a bit breezy today as an upper level low sits over the northeast but winds won't be as strong as the last few days. (Today through Thursday) Dry conditions will continue to prevail through Thursday afternoon due to surface ridging influences and dry northwesterly flow aloft.
Dewpoints will reach the lower 60s east of the dryline, with MLCAPE values between 2000 and 3000 J/kg expected during peak heating.
Some of the high-res CAMs also indicate that some leftover convection that is expected to develop across the Texas Panhandle tonight may move into Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Southwest Arkansas after sunrise Thursday.
Behind the front though, not much in the way of "colder" air as highs are only expected to be a few degrees cooler than today. Western CONUS through to interact with a decaying east to west trough axis in Canada at the start of the period, with South Dakota located in proximity to the upper level col.
125 PM MDT Wed May 3 2023 An upper ridge sits over the Rockies, while a low pressure system spins over the CA coast. Highs Thursday will be slightly cooler, but still in the 70s. The upper trough will swing northeastward and settle over the western states for the next several days. The northern plains will stay beneath a cooler airmass during this time, with highs in and around the 60s.
104 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 (Rest of Today) High pressure will continue to build east towards the area today.
Most Florida zones; however, should remain in the low to mid 50s for lows tonight, but should quickly climb into the low to mid 80s by the afternoon hours.
1131 AM MDT Wed May 3 2023 The strong ridge of high pressure over the region earlier in the week shifted just east of the Continental Divide during the night and has taken on a slight negative tilt. Meanwhile, the deep mid- level closed low pressure system which forced the ridge to the east continued to spin just off the coast of the Bay Area of California early this morning.
Upper level low pressure system over central California this morning with dry slot over much of the forecast area.
306 PM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Strong troughing remains anchored over the eastern CONUS today leading to another breezy day.
Low level shear Thursday morning is decent, combine this with the low level moisture and mid level forcing and the thunderstorm activity could on the locally strong side. This thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish during the night as a mid level trough comes through the region.
Overnight, slight chances for scattered rainshowers will also develop across southern portions of the area as the trough sinks southward.
1137 AM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Strong troughing remains anchored over the eastern CONUS today leading to another breezy day.
212 PM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Aviation Low pressure has moved well off to the east both at the surface and aloft into central/eastern portions of the state of New York at 1100 AM. Highs in the low to mid 50s should be realized if we see some sunshine this afternoon. - Rain Finally Ends Early Today - There are still just a few lingering rain showers early this morning as the last vorticity max rotates around the upper low. The main low pressure system will finally slide off to our east this morning and high pressure will take its place leading to dry weather for much of today. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than the last two days with highs peaking in the low to mid 50s.
Florida is situated between a closed upper low spinning over the New England states and upper level ridging extending northward through Texas. On the surface, a weakening frontal boundary stretching across southern Florida will dissipate as weak high pressure builds into the area later this evening into Thursday with pleasant weather expected.
A storm system lingering to the west will result in breezy afternoons and cooler temperatures through the coming weekend. This is all due to an upper low currently sitting off the California coast inducing southerly flow aloft and gusty southerly winds this afternoon at the surface.
Northwest flow continues across a majority of the atmospheric profile, as the longwave trough remains centered over the eastern CONUS. We're finally beginning to see the pattern slowly but surely changing as the trough weakens and pulls off to the northeast.
204 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 High pressure dominates the region, which has brought along quite a beautiful day. Temperatures are currently ranging between the low to mid 60s. High pressure slowly works it way through the region, leaving us quiet and mild. Tonight, we will see clear skies and temperatures dropping into the low 40s. Light and variable winds will result, thanks to high pressure directly overhead.
That said, there is still a window for elevated and quasi-surface based severe storms early Thursday evening with ramping up of the low level jet and given the moderate shear/instability combo, mainly across southern Kansas.
The higher elevations will see late-season snow showers with some minor accumulations.
A dying cold front is analyzed across Central Florida, with very little wind shift along the front, but a healthy dewpoint gradient. The forecast calls for dewpoints to fall into the lower to mid 60s over the next 12 to 18 hours, not a cold front per se, but seasonally drier.
The surface cold front has cleared eastern Kentucky, with light shower activity winding down across our far eastern counties. With the mostly dry cold front, a few showers are occurring and will continue for the next few hours before dissipating later this morning. High pressure continues into Thursday with mostly clear skies and temperatures climbing into the mid to upper-60s. The period will start with surface ridging over the region beneath west northwest flow aloft, ahead of upper level ridging over the central CONUS. This will allow warm/moist advection off the gulf to progress eastward on the back side of the departing ridge. As the upper level ridge approaches, a couple of smaller scale waves will propagate eastward through it.
340 PM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Our cool and unsettled weather will continue for a couple more days as we are under the influence of a slow moving low pressure system. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures for this weekend as high pressure builds in. The stacked low pressure system continues to impact the region. The upper low and its associated cold pool are passing just to our southwest; can see the circulation about the low with echoes moving toward the northwest across our forecast area.
(This evening through Thursday Night) Another quiet and warm day across SETX with afternoon highs and heat indices in the low to mid 80s. While the upper ridge axis should come closer to our area tonight, it will also be weakening as it does so.
The upper low over the Great Lakes will shift east today, though. Modest northerly winds will exist this morning, but will trend lighter as that high pressure moves in. By Thurs, however, the high will shift east of the area, introducing southerly flow and pushing temps back to seasonable values, with highs in the 70s.
----BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper level ridge will remain in place eastern Montana today and Thursday with dry weather and warm temperatures. Late in the week, the ridge pattern will begin to pinch off, allowing a return of Pacific moisture into the region and an increase of showers and thunderstorms into the upcoming weekend.
921 AM PDT Wed May 3 2023 Cool temperatures, onshore winds and cloud cover will continue over the next several days as a low pressure system churns over the central California coast.
Showers will see a return on Thursday, but warmer and drier conditions are expected to return for the weekend. Upper level low is centered over the Twin Tiers this afternoon, with widespread showers over the hilly terrain of the Allegheny Plateau, and patchy light rain and drizzle across the lake plain and Mohawk Valley. Temperatures look to dip into the upper-30s in many areas, but cloud cover should keep temperatures above freezing and too warm for frost.
Snow shower chances remain in the West Virginia ridges through late tonight, an additional 1-3 inches could occur within isolated snow bands.
1112 AM CDT Wed May 3 2023 Surface ridging remains in control, which should keep the forecast area dry today. No changes were made to the high temperature forecast today, but I did try to tweak the hourly trends to better match the latest observations. Air temperatures are in the low to mid 50s where clear from SE OK, across S AR and into N LA with warmer low 60s in E TX. So, overall another high pressure day with still fairly low humidity by mid afternoon and our highs in the lower 80s. So our surface winds will vary from N to E today and begin to shift weak return flow from the E and SE overnight with warmer lows ranging all through the 50s. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the low to mid 80s.
/10 (Now through Thursday) Large upper level trof axis aligned over the Appalachians is beginning an eastward movement. Spilling southeastward on back side of departing upper trof is a thin veil of high level cirrus. No rain expected through Thursday considering high pressure in place and low deep layer moisture values (precipitable water values <1.
1144 AM CDT Wed May 3 2023 Winds will be much lighter today as high pressure takes control across the region.
(This afternoon through Thursday Night) High pressure is now influencing our weather and we are seeing beautiful conditions across the area. High pressure remains in place for tomorrow keeping conditions quiet.
319 PM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Low pressure will pull away from the Ohio Valley tonight and Thursday, allowing dry and warmer weather to return to the region.
247 PM MDT Wed May 3 2023 Today through Thursday, the warm ridge of high pressure continues to hold sway over our region, but the two distant low pressure systems from east and west slowly migrate toward each other.
Issued by National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 222 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 An unsettled period is upcoming across the region as the large scale pattern changes very little and the upper Midwest remains in mainly southwest/west upper flow with troughing to the east and west. Overall, the cutoff low over the west coast looks to de-amplify and eject some energy northeast toward our area this weekend, but after that troughing looks to re-amplify a bit out west, working to keep split flow in place across the central CONUS and keep somewhat weak west/southwest flow over the upper Midwest.