Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In the lower levels southwest flow will bring drier air into the southern half of the forecast area today. The high-res models are picking up on activity developing on the Uintas and along an axis from the Tavaputs to Flat Tops. The low levels remain dry across the south so localized red flag conditions are possible. There is little change in the synoptic weather pattern with the longwave trough to the north and high pressure to the south keeping eastern Utah and Western Colorado under a very dry zonal flow.
613 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 The upper pattern is currently going through an evolution, and that evolving pattern looks to soon feature a southwest CONUS hot upper ridge, and mean trof over the eastern CONUS. On Thursday, return flow sets up over the High Plains, bringing LLM and instability back to that area.
501 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will slide east across Central and Eastern PA today.
Discussion: Post frontal air mass continues to advect cooler temps aloft and drier air into the region.
With more sunshine, it will be a warmer day but still well below normal for this time of year. Most guidance is showing the greatest coverage of storms across northern Wyoming, which is where we have places the highest POPs.
Outside of showers, expect a hot and humid day, with highs in the low 90s.
(Today through Thursday) Deterministic runs continue to predict that the CWA will remain under the influence of a quasi-stationary weak upper trough (or weakness in the geopotential height field) during the period. The combination of the upper trough, copious moisture, and instability will contribute to at least scattered convection today through Thursday (noctural convection mainly offshore and an increase in diurnal activity along the sea breeze). Although slightly cooler maximum temperatures are expected today, greater moisture will result in Heat Advisory conditions this afternoon for portions of the southern Coastal Bend, Brush Country, and Rio Grande Plains.
704 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 High pressure over the area will keep winds light and chance for measurable rainfall low.
With this mornings widespread showers, most of the area will have a hard time recovering temp wise, so decided to slash max temps back into the middle 70s across central and the lower 80s in southern KS. Cooler air will overspread much of the area with highs ranging from the upper 70s over central KS to the lower 90s along the OK state line.
Still dealing with broad upper trof over the Northern Rockies with weak synoptic scale forcing through much of today. Temperatures will be much cooler with readings only in the 60s across the plains. In addition, as the low level flow shifts southeasterly, a Denver cyclone develops and allows some additional convergence just east and south of the Denver area which could cause initiation of thunderstorms as well as higher terrain. Forecast will reflect the higher pops for these areas.
1000 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 Upper level ridging builds over the area today and Thursday bringing mostly sunny, hot and humid weather to the area.
Mean-layer ridging is farther west this morning compared to yesterday at this time, and is now centered over the central Gulf of Mexico. The fractured low-level ridge stretches west across Florida, with the col-region farther to the north this morning. Highs will reach the lower 90s. However, mariners should be mindful of the clearance below the lowest fixed bridges along the island chain during this morning's high tides, which are running a foot above mean higher high water (normal high tide). A fractured Atlantic ridge axis will reach west across Florida today, maintaining light to gentle breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters.
High pressure will build over Arizona, bringing warm, dry, and breezy conditions through the rest of the week. A flattened ridge aloft will remain centered over Arizona and New Mexico through early in the weekend.
636 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 Upper level ridging builds over the area today and Thursday bringing mostly sunny, hot and humid weather to the area.
The Canadian low to our northeast that kept general troughing around yesterday continues to move eastward and we break free from its influence today. So, generally in the low to mid 80s at the lower elevations and 70s everywhere else.
549 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) The upper ridge is in place and will gradually expand east over the coming days.
1029 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A weak trough both at the surface and aloft will remain overhead through Thursday while high pressure remains over the Atlantic.
843 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 High pressure will be over the region today. The dry and cooler than normal forecast on a northwest breeze for today should pan out swimmingly. The upper pattern is currently going through an evolution, and that evolving pattern looks to soon feature a southwest CONUS hot upper ridge, and mean trof over the eastern CONUS. On Thursday, return flow sets up over the High Plains, bringing LLM and instability back to that area.
After the current cluster of storms passes this morning, expect a break in the action today, with north to northeast winds in the wake of a cold front. This could keep temperatures from rising much above 70 degrees in places like Ness City and Scott City, with warmer 80s along the Oklahoma state line near Medicine Lodge. Given the high dewpoints, afternoons will be on the "muggy" side. CIGS should remain AOA010 in the low MVFR range, with VFR to the south at KLBL.
641 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) During the short-term period we will be sitting on the western periphery of an area of high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge centered at the NM/TX border will begin to build back towards the eastern part of the state during the day Thursday. Temperatures should remain on the "cooler" side with cloud cover. Any areas that receive rainfall will of course experience some cooler temperatures. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s for Wednesday and Thursday.
641 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 (Today through Thursday) Deterministic runs continue to predict that the CWA will remain under the influence of a quasi-stationary weak upper trough (or weakness in the geopotential height field) during the period. The combination of the upper trough, copious moisture, and instability will contribute to at least scattered convection today through Thursday (noctural convection mainly offshore and an increase in diurnal activity along the sea breeze). Although slightly cooler maximum temperatures are expected today, greater moisture will result in Heat Advisory conditions this afternoon for portions of the southern Coastal Bend, Brush Country, and Rio Grande Plains.
High pressure will remain across the eastern Gulf of Mexico the next several days.
Highs today will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, with upper 80s to mid 90s in most valley locations. High pressure over the desert southwest will slowly build over the next couple days, while near-zonal flow across Nevada gradually lifts northward. Some mid- level clouds will linger overnight, mainly north of the Highway 50 corridor.
305 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 Convection has continued to blossom across sections of the CWA, with focus remaining on three main areas: 1) NE portion of a well-defined MCV entering far west-central IL 2) Cold front across northwest Illinois 3) Lake breeze along the IL shore More robust cells continue to favor the front and MCV with stronger forcing, but the lake breeze and additional local convergence areas in the Chicago metro have been also forced several strong cells an an otherwise uncapped environment.
Thursday through Thursday night: The low to middle atmosphere will likely mix out by noon tomorrow, which will allow cumulus clouds to develop along the higher terrain of central Montana, eventually leading to isolated storm development by mid-afternoon south of Fort Peck lake.
High temperatures will continue to hang around the low 90s with some areas being relatively cooler due to cloud coverage and precipitation. Models suggest our PWATs wl remain greater than 2 inches today along with surface dew points in the low to mid 70s. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis still showed our CWA between a stout mid level ridge to our south and an upper level trough axis to our west. With continued high humidity along with temperatures climbing up into the lower 90s again before becoming rain cooled, peak heat index values will top out around 105F in the west and south.
enjoy the cooler weather! Lake effect sprinkles continue in some locations, so the forecast did increase the spread of drizzle. Discussion: Post frontal air mass continues to advect cooler temps aloft and drier air into the region.
Upper ridge continue to build into the area on Thursday, likely capping off and inhibiting convection for areas across the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley.
241 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 (Issued 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023) Tonight through Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along outflow boundaries, the lake breeze convergence zone, and the true cold front that is lingering to our northwest. Storms will clear from west to east across the area early this evening into the overnight hours, with a few lingering post- frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms possible before exiting the region completely Thursday morning as high pressure moves in. Cooler conditions are expected, with high temperatures in the upper 70s expected. Going into the overnight hours, clear skies are expected, with temperatures dropping into the lower 50s across much of the area.
Toward dawn on Thursday, we'll have to watch as upstream convection (weakened) moves in from the west ahead of an approaching cold front. Drier air begins to filter into the region Thursday night in the wake of the cold front.
A cold front will move through the area through this evening, bringing showers and thunderstorms, including some severe. Cooler weather will filter in behind the front with highs only in the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday through the weekend. Scattered strong storms are developing this afternoon along an outflow boundary in close proximity to a cold front over west central IL.
(Rest of Today) Light (10-20 knot) westerly flow exists across the local CWFA this morning, with the region located along the northern periphery of subtropical ridging centered across southern AZ/NM and adjacent portions of northern Mexico, as well as across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
However, there is a weak upper trough near the Oregon coast that will spread some mid-level moisture into parts of eastern Oregon later today.
201 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 Upper level ridging builds over the area today and Thursday bringing mostly sunny, hot and humid weather to the area.
Tonight and Thursday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a poorly defined cold front roughly stretching from just west of Marinette to Lake Poygan early this afternoon. This area from Calumet to Kewaunee to Manitowoc is the area with the highest concern for strong or severe storms, and isolated flooding for the rest of this afternoon into this evening. The showers or thunderstorms should exit eastern Wisconsin during the late evening hours as the cold front moves into Lower Michigan. Lows should range from the lower 50s in far north-central Wisconsin to the middle 60s near the lake and bay. Temperatures will be cooler and range from the upper 60s over Vilas county to the upper 70s over the Fox Valley.
1238 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 (Rest of Today) Light (10-20 knot) westerly flow exists across the local CWFA this morning, with the region located along the northern periphery of subtropical ridging centered across southern AZ/NM and adjacent portions of northern Mexico, as well as across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure will be over the region today. The dry and cooler than normal forecast on a northwest breeze for today should pan out swimmingly. The upper pattern is currently going through an evolution, and that evolving pattern looks to soon feature a southwest CONUS hot upper ridge, and mean trof over the eastern CONUS. On Thursday, return flow sets up over the High Plains, bringing LLM and instability back to that area.
High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 70s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
358 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A trough is positioned over Hudson Bay into the upper Mississippi River Valley. This activity and associated cloud cover has kept temperatures in the lower 70s to lower 80s other than the northwest corner of the state that was in the mid 60s this afternoon. Below seasonal normal temperatures are anticipated again on Thursday with afternoon values in the lower 80s which is 10 degrees below typical.
Weak mid level kinematic support ahead of the trough will remain in place for the next several hours, and the southeast airmass still has uncapped MLCAPEs of 1000-1500 j/kg as the airmass behind the first boundary hasn't changed much. The precip should end by this evening with cooler, drier air settling in along the secondary cold front which has just entered northwest IA.
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase into this evening mainly west of route 31 ahead of a slow moving cold front.
135 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023 Massive western NOAM ridge will slowly shift east in the period with active NW flow developing over the region.
1159 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 (Today through Thursday) Deterministic runs continue to predict that the CWA will remain under the influence of a quasi-stationary weak upper trough (or weakness in the geopotential height field) during the period. The combination of the upper trough, copious moisture, and instability will contribute to at least scattered convection today through Thursday (noctural convection mainly offshore and an increase in diurnal activity along the sea breeze). Although slightly cooler maximum temperatures are expected today, greater moisture will result in Heat Advisory conditions this afternoon for portions of the southern Coastal Bend, Brush Country, and Rio Grande Plains.
1005 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 (Issued 1005 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023) Minor timing differences with the frontal passage and associated minor changes to the high temperatures today are the main adjustments to the forecast this morning. Dry weather still expected on Thursday as high pressure builds back into the area. MH (Issued 337 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023) Today through Thursday: A cold front will move through southern Wisconsin today, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. and mid-level lapse rates are on the lower end as well. This activity should wind down by overnight, with dry weather then expected on Thursday as high pressure begins to build back into the area. Lingering clouds and cooler conditions behind the front will likely keep high temps from getting out of the 70s on Thursday.
In any case these storms should stay farther south of the state line given the higher confidence of the present storms stabilizing the air and keeping the warm front further south. Thursday we will probably have more clouds than sun once again and cooler than seasonable highs as model guidance is showing upper 70s. CAMs are highlighting our northern counties along the I-70 corridor to have the highest chance of rain.
High pressure will build over Arizona, bringing warm, dry, and breezy conditions through the rest of the week.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 70s. High temperatures Thursday will be in the low 90s for most of the area. The persistently strong subtropical ridge is forecast to remain anchored over AZ/NM/TX while cyclonic flow over the northeast CONUS battles with the ridge.
(Tonight through Thursday night) A weak trough continues across the area leaving us open to the possibility of convection tonight through Thursday.
After the current cluster of storms passes this morning, expect a break in the action today, with north to northeast winds in the wake of a cold front. This could keep temperatures from rising much above 70 degrees in places like Ness City and Scott City, with warmer 80s along the Oklahoma state line near Medicine Lodge. Given the high dewpoints, afternoons will be on the "muggy" side.
333 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 Key Messages: * Cooler temperatures are expected for the remainder of this week with highs mostly in the 70s.
326 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A cold front moves through the region Thursday, bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Looking at temperatures, areas along and just north of the I-10 corridor are expected to see some upper subsidence from the upper high passing south of the forecast area, creating a north to south gradient in high temperatures today and Thursday. The high moisture levels combined with the upper subsidence is expected to limit low temperatures to the low to mid 70s north of I-10, mid to upper 70s south to the coast.
This is due to a cool high pressure building south into the area. Southerly flow returns in the low to mid levels on Thursday night and a chance for showers and thunderstorms will also return.
1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) The upper ridge is in place and will gradually expand east over the coming days.
A few strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. After the cold front moves through Thursday, cooler temperatures and drier air will provide a brief relief before a warming trend begins. The aforementioned cold front will stall out and leave diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms possible each day of the forecast period.
224 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A weak trough both at the surface and aloft will remain overhead through Thursday while high pressure remains over the Atlantic.
Thursday, will again be hot though cloud cover gradually increases as a cold front approaches from the west. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s in the lowlands and upper 50s to mid 60s along the mountains. On Thursday, highs are expected to reach upper 80s to around 90 in the lowlands and 70s to mid 80s along the mountains.
We should be dry overnight into Thursday morning, but with a weak cold front and weak troughing aloft, will leave some small PoPs in the east just to be safe.
The higher potential for severe storms will likely be overnight into Thursday morning. More like average temperatures are expected in SW parts of the fa with highs in the low to mid 90s.
134 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A glance at 500 millibar analysis today will reveal that a broad trough is slowly moving away from the Northern Rockies. Despite continued influence from this trough, conditions are expected to be mainly warm and dry this afternoon.
1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) During the short-term period we will be sitting on the western periphery of an area of high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge centered at the NM/TX border will begin to build back towards the eastern part of the state during the day Thursday. Temperatures should remain on the "cooler" side with cloud cover. Any areas that receive rainfall will of course experience some cooler temperatures. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s for Wednesday and Thursday.
Redevelopment of strong to severe storms over the area ahead of a cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures in the mid 80s for the weekend. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe weather forecast for the entire SGF CWA today as a cold front will move through the area this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to initiate ahead of the cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are initiating in the south and east ahead of an approaching cold front, bringing brief MVFR conditions as they pass over airfields. Winds are currently out of the WNW but will shift to be more northerly as the cold front passes.
all in association with a short wave trough evident in latest water vapor imagery over the TN Valley. The leading line of deep convection has essentially fallen apart, so it's unclear whether the remnant activity is going to hold together to make significant inroads into our CWA, so PoPs in the 1--3 hour time frame taper from likely across the Smokies and vicinity to slight/low chance as far east as the Highway 221 corridor.
Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower to mid 90s, with dewpoints in the upper 70s. FORECAST Summer forecasting gradually trends towards ignoring the mid to upper-level synoptic pattern, and instead our focus trends towards watching the 925-700 mb changes, including undulations in moisture and changes in the ridge configuration.
In the lower levels southwest flow will bring drier air into the southern half of the forecast area today. The high- res models are picking up on activity developing on the Uintas and along an axis from the Tavaputs to Flat Tops. The low levels remain dry across the south so localized red flag conditions are possible. There is little change in the synoptic weather pattern with the longwave trough to the north and high pressure to the south keeping eastern Utah and Western Colorado under a very dry zonal flow.
In any case these storms should stay farther south of the state line given the higher confidence of the present storms stabilizing the air and keeping the warm front further south. Thursday we will probably have more clouds than sun once again and cooler than seasonable highs as model guidance is showing upper 70s. CAMs are highlighting our northern counties along the I-70 corridor to have the highest chance of rain. Given the high dewpoints, afternoons will be on the "muggy" side.
They should mostly hug the higher terrain or nearby locations and dissipate after dark, though an isolated shower may linger over the Beartooths overnight.
Meanwhile, the cold front remains over the central to eastern UP as radar imagery shows light rain showers from the Iron/Dickinson County border to Marquette and eastward. However, storms will have to fight against weak lapse rates in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere, which will greatly hamper severe weather chances. As high pressure builds in, expect skies to clear out progressively from west to east. Behind the front, temps have been warmer than expected. Moving into tonight, there might be some patchy fog over the far east immediately behind the precip of the cold front.
Cooler high temperatures the next several days in the low 80s. The passage of the surface front will knock today's low-90s highs down to the low 80s beginning Thursday through the weekend.
714 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 Convection has continued to blossom across sections of the CWA, with focus remaining on three main areas: 1) NE portion of a well-defined MCV entering far west-central IL 2) Cold front across northwest Illinois 3) Lake breeze along the IL shore More robust cells continue to favor the front and MCV with stronger forcing, but the lake breeze and additional local convergence areas in the Chicago metro have been also forced several strong cells an an otherwise uncapped environment.
High pressure centered over the eastern Dakotas will continue to slide eastward through the evening hours and continuing through daybreak Thursday morning.
Expecting light and variable winds as high pressure moves over the region.
A cold front will move through the area through this evening, bringing showers and thunderstorms, including some severe. Cooler weather will filter in behind the front with highs only in the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday through the weekend. 25 Scattered strong storms are developing this afternoon along an outflow boundary in close proximity to a cold front over west central IL.
700 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A cold front moves through the region Thursday, bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
From synopsis, a fractured Atlantic ridge axis draped across Florida will sag southward overnight and Thursday, turning the light to gentle breezes to the south.
The combination of northwesterly mid-level flow and a passing upper-level ridge will produce drier conditions on Thursday.