Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
730 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 High pressure will build into the area for the beginning of the week.
In addition to the high moisture content and instability, the MCV will help increase moisture convergence and easily help promote rainfall rates 1-2 inches/hour with locally higher amounts. MMG/BRC The upper level trough situated over the southwest CONUS and the upper level low over eastern Canada will help keep the region in dry northwesterly flow.
The persistence of this northeast flow over the last 24 hours has advected a cooler and drier airmass into Se Mi. There will still be ample intervals of clear skies which combined with the weak gradient and dry air in the low levels will lead to a relatively cold night with lows down into the 40s outside of the Detroit metro area.
Latest RAP upper air analysis and water vapor satellite imagery indicate a ~595-dm ridge is centered over the Desert Southwest with longwave troughing over the northeast CONUS, all leading to northwesterly 500-mb flow atop the central plains. Short range ensembles agree the only change during the day Sunday will be the ridge slowly retrograding, resulting in quiescent weather through Sunday night as subsidence on the eastern periphery of the ridge suppresses noteworthy activity across southwest KS. As expected within this synoptic regime, 850-mb temperatures are progged by guidance to increase by 3-5C, propelling afternoon highs back into the low/mid 80s Sunday, but this will still feel cool relative to what southwest KS has seen over the past couple weeks.
Otherwise, a cooler airmass will settle in across much of the forecast area today.
100 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 A weak cold front will drift southeast and cross the region through tonight. High pressure will then slide from the Lower Great Lakes into New England in the wake of this front.
1228 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) An upper level ridge centered over west Texas will propagate west tonight towards the Arizona/New Mexico border by Sunday. In the mid-levels a combination of subsidence from the ridge and advection will provide a layer of dry air aloft that will inhibit convection Sunday. The lower dewpoints should keep heat index values below Heat Advisory Criteria. A combination of 20ft winds being forecast to stay below 10mph tomorrow afternoon and above normal to normal fuel moisture offset the low Relative Humidity values tomorrow and keeps us below Fire Danger Statement criteria.
114 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) An upper level ridge centered over west Texas will propagate west tonight towards the Arizona/New Mexico border by Sunday. In the mid-levels a combination of subsidence from the ridge and advection will provide a layer of dry air aloft that will inhibit convection Sunday. The lower dewpoints should keep heat index values below Heat Advisory Criteria. A combination of 20ft winds being forecast to stay below 10mph tomorrow afternoon and above normal to normal fuel moisture offset the low Relative Humidity values tomorrow and keeps us below Fire Danger Statement criteria.
Discussion: At the surface, high pressure stretches from Minnesota eastward into western Ontario. Clockwise flow around the high places northeast to easterly winds at 5 to 10 MPH across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri. Temperatures are an impressive 20 to 30 degrees cooler than 48 hours ago. A quiet day is on tap for the region with high pressure sitting to our north and cool northeasterly winds off of Lake Michigan.
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered across the Northern Plains. with seasonal daytime temps and cooler than normal overnight lows.
1117 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 A trough is situated over Quebec to the East Coast with a ridge back to the west. The low can be seen spinning on visible satellite over Missouri and northeast Kansas. After the cold front passed through last evening/night, this brought a much needed cool down for the Sunflower State.
1039 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures continue Sunday.
Updated to end the Excessive Heat Warning behind an outflow boundary acting as the effective cold front. A cold front will begin to move into the Mid-South from the north tonight. As the cold front pushes further south on Sunday, additional thunderstorms are possible. Behind the cold front, cooler and drier air will move into the region bringing an end to the very hot and humid conditions.
235 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 High pressure will build into the area for the beginning of the week.
1052 PM MDT Sat Aug 26 2023 The low level moisture.
Temepratures were generally in the 50s, with a few 40s in the cooler spots of the forecast area. However, the jet stream will remain to the north, which means there won't be much synoptic forcing for precipitation other than a couple weak trailing cold fronts pushing through the region.
A long wave trough will be positioned over the Great Lakes through the short term helping to keep temperatures much closer to normal for this time of year. The high pressure to the north and east will also keep the winds fairly light through the period.
147 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Aviation High pressure is firmly in control of the area weather this evening with a sprawling high centered over Lake Superior and adjacent Ontario. - High pressure in Control for Sunday High pressure will be centered up over Lake Superior to start Sunday. The NAM solutions suggest we may see normally cooler locations making a run at the dipping below 40 degrees, most models are showing lows in the 40's.
Still looking on track for warming into midweek and further compression of the marine layer as high pressure aloft builds into CA. (This evening through Sunday) The upper level low that sits off the coast continues to slowly move northward, allowing the transition to a ridging pattern influenced weather. Therefore, expect tomorrow's max temperatures to see warmer temperatures by 2-6 degrees higher compared to today. As the high pressure continues to slowly move over our region tomorrow, expect the marine layer to continue to compress bringing a higher chance for low clouds as well as lower visibilities from fog late tonight into tomorrow morning, especially for Monterey Bay and North Bay.
This will result in temperatures below climatological normals for this time of August, with thermometers expected to top out in the low 80s, and potentially the upper 70s for some parts of south-central Kentucky.
1056 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 After a cold front passes south of the region tonight, much cooler and less humid weather will be on tap for Sunday with high temperatures only reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s. 25 18z/1pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from northern Indiana to northern Missouri. Widely scattered showers/storms will linger along/south of the cold front for the next several hours. After some lingering morning cloud cover, skies will become mostly sunny by Sunday afternoon as northeasterly winds bring cooler/drier air into the region. High temperatures will be considerably cooler than they have recently been.
(Today and tonight) The cold front has pushed south of the FA, though the front is not expected to have any significant impact on low temps this morning. The upper high will continue pushing off to the west and will eventually place the FA under northwesterly upper flow. Overall convection should remain fairly tame as CAPE will be around 1000 j/kg on the high side and will limit the severe threat. The combination of CAA and rain cooled air will help overnight lows reach into the low/upper 60s on the Caprock and upper 60s/low 70s off the Caprock.
Temperatures will be considerably less hot than in recent days, thanks to a cold front that passed through the Midsouth last evening.
The high pressure is expected to keep the area dry for the remainder of the day. Tomorrow the area will be under northwest flow aloft as the upper ridge amplifies over the Four Corners region. The main feature for this part of the forecast will be the upper level ridge re-asserting itself over the Plains by the end of the week.
With more cloud cover and the back door cold front, temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
1240 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Convection for the most part has dissipated late this evening but a cold front located across our northern most zones attm will continue to move very slowly southward overnight, and by 12z, should be residing just north of the I-20 Corridor of NE TX and far Northern Louisiana.
Trailing this MCV is a sagging frontal boundary, which should ultimately usher in some cooler and drier air into the area. Robust, deep convection is not anticipated with this activity as available CAPE is pretty marginal, mainly due to shallow lapse rates in the mid levels and relatively cool temperatures in the lower levels. Once the low level boundary sags all the way through the area expect a drop off in rain chances.
Warmer but pleasant conditions today. Could see some localized visibility below 2 miles near the Buffalo Ridge (as indicated by the HREF guidance) if winds are able to stay calm in this area. South to southwesterly flow through most of the day in the lower levels keeps temperatures a bit warmer than yesterday, especially across central SD where WAA is prominent.
434 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 A weak cold front will drift southeast and cross the region through tonight. High pressure will then slide from the Lower Great Lakes into New England in the wake of this front.
Given northeast wind flow, highs today will be a few degrees warmer along the lake shore where mid 70s are expected; lower 70s inland.
(Tonight through Saturday) Noticeably cooler temperatures are on tap for tonight with lows in the 60s to lower 70s across the region.
227 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Upper high currently sits over the 4 corners region, with the ridge stretching over the rockies, and northwest flow over our region. Precipitation should be out of the region by midnight, and as the upper ridge builds into the region, mostly dry and warmer conditions are expected through the work week.
A mid/upper high centered over the southwest U. ridged eastward through Gulf coast states just about to the position under the northern Gulf upper low, with weak ridging continuing off the east coast of Florida. Precipitable water estimates from GOES16 indicated quite a dry zone at 700-500 mb west-northwest to east- southeast over the Lower Keys and western Straits, with the BYX 88D and 3. For now opted to continuing the low chances today.
The high end may be a bit high given the lack of instability, but 1-2" will be a good bet over much of that region.
Several upstream surface observations indicate Td well down into the 40s which, along with the inbound high pressure, is proving to support clear sky across the region despite flow over Lake Huron. Dry weather has generally held across SE MI with the exception being a few brief spotty showers south of I-696 tied to the passage of a weak cold front. This high brings with it a significantly drier airmass with surface dewpoints falling into the 50s to perhaps 40s in the north.
The upper level trough over the great lakes continues to carve out as various impulses drop southeast out of Canada.
435 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes for the beginning of the week, offering cooler and drier conditions.
143 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 A cold front continues to sag south across the area this evening.
A quiet morning will give way to scattered showers and thunderstorms firing off the higher terrain. Ample moisture is expected to remain in the lower levels across western Colorado, so the threat of heavy rain and flash flooding continues. Storm motions are expected to be slow thanks to high pressure nearly directly overhead, with storms remaining tied to the terrain at least to start with.
A large center of high pressure is currently in the process of dropping into the Great Lakes region early this morning. Once we can burn off this scattered low stratus overhead later this morning, this high will bring lots of sunshine to the area today and tomorrow.
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered across the Northern Plains. with seasonal daytime temps and cooler than normal overnight lows. Weak high pressure will hold across the region through much of the day Monday likely leading to mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures.
Winds and waves are slowly decreasing as high pressure over the upper peninsula of Michigan moves east-southeast toward Lake Michigan. Otherwise, favorable delta-Ts, shoreline convergence, and a weak trough have given rise to some spotty small showers over MKE, Racine, and Kenosha Counties this morning. This trough should push inland and wash out through the morning hours, bringing scattered sprinkle/light shower chances inland. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s and northeast winds will continue to keep dew points comfortable. High pressure will slide southeast with time, keeping subsidence around tonight. Temperatures will likely tank into the low 50s as a result. Monday, high pressure will continue to linger and less cloud cover is expected for all.
Cloud cover and passing storms and showers will keep highs in the low 80s across most of the area.
(Today and tonight) As of 4 AM, a cold front had made it south of a line from Sterling City to Brownwood, and was continuing south through the area. Highs today will be cooler overall, but the greatest cooling will be experienced across the northern half of the area with the more significantly cooler air lagging well behind the front. In addition, with the front in the area, and upper ridge continuing to weaken/retreat westward, scattered thunderstorms will be possible, generally for areas west of a Haskell to Abilene to Brownwood line. Lows are expected to be in the low to mid 70s tonight.
Otherwise, temperatures will finally be much cooler today than they have been as of late thanks to the cold front that moved through yesterday and the added benefit of a nice, cloudy, rainy day. Cloud cover and passing storms and showers will keep highs in the low 80s across most of the area.
627 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 The high based (10,000 feet) shower and isolated thunder activity continues across most of the FA, but seems to be ending now across the Devils Lake region.
A quiet morning will give way to scattered showers and thunderstorms firing off the higher terrain. Ample moisture is expected to remain in the lower levels across western Colorado, so the threat of heavy rain and flash flooding continues. Storm motions are expected to be slow thanks to high pressure nearly directly overhead, with storms remaining tied to the terrain at least to start with. By Monday, drier northwest flow will continue to erode the moist surface layer as the center of the high continues to drift to the west. Temperatures begin to creep up starting tomorrow as conditions dry out and high pressure stays in charge.
Within a broad nern-CONUS mid-level trough and developing speed maximum, a weak cold front will advance sewd across wrn PA through this evening, eventually stalling in vicinity of the ridges. Fog development is possible tonight as cooler air spreads across the warm rivers, but the potential could be offset by faster onset of dry air within the modest post-frontal cold-advection regime. Quiet weather on the whole, and temperature near climatological normal, are likely (high confidence) to continue through Sun as high pressure begins to build across the Great Lakes. High pressure building over the Great Lakes under waning NW flow will maintain dry conditions Monday. The exception to this will be across the higher terrain of the Laurel Highlands and WV Ridges where orographic lift and meager moisture may allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day.
Highs today will be from the mid 70s to the lower 80s with the cooler air advecting into the area with the coolest readings where the clouds and scatter showers are.
604 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front has pushed south of the FA, though the front is not expected to have any significant impact on low temps this morning. The upper high will continue pushing off to the west and will eventually place the FA under northwesterly upper flow. Overall convection should remain fairly tame as CAPE will be around 1000 j/kg on the high side and will limit the severe threat. The combination of CAA and rain cooled air will help overnight lows reach into the low/upper 60s on the Caprock and upper 60s/low 70s off the Caprock.
Cooler temperatures return this week, along with better and more widespread chances for rain.
Southerly flow ahead of the low and waa with and behind it will help to push dewpoints into the 60s. 0-3km CAPE climbs to around 1000 J/kg after 21z in the low axis. Winds shift back to the north for Monday with caa trailing in behind the low.
647 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes for the beginning of the week, offering cooler and drier conditions.
The combination of ample moisture, nearby cold front, and a short wave to provide upper level support will give much of the region a chance at a soaking rain. The northern half of the forecast area will see below normal temperatures in the 80s to low 90s as cooler air and rain take hold for the day.
This will result in temperatures below climatological normals for this time of August, with thermometers expected to top out in the low 80s, and potentially the upper 70s for some parts of south-central Kentucky. The clearing skycover will allow for temps to be a bit cooler across the north, with upper 50s forecast for southern Indiana. Where clouds linger the longest through the night, expect warmer lows across the south-central Kentucky region with forecast temps in the upper 60s.
515 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes and northwest flow aloft will bring a us dry day today with comfortable humidity. An upper level disturbance will team up with a slow moving frontal boundary and weak area of low pressure near the Delmarva Peninsula will lead to an increase in clouds and possibly a few showers late tonight and during the day Monday.
With more cloud cover and the back door cold front, temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. These should end fairly early as ridging builds in and moisture gets shunted to the east.
High pressure will bring a drying trend heading into the upcoming week. A dry cold front will cross northern Utah midweek.
530 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Upper high currently sits over the 4 corners region, with the ridge stretching over the rockies, and northwest flow over our region. Precipitation should be out of the region by midnight, and as the upper ridge builds into the region, mostly dry and warmer conditions are expected through the work week.
A large center of high pressure is currently in the process of dropping into the Great Lakes region early this morning. Once we can burn off this scattered low stratus overhead later this morning, this high will bring lots of sunshine to the area today and tomorrow. Clear skies tonight will help to pull Monday morning lows down into the lower 50s for many, especially those outside of the Chicago metro. The high will center itself right over the region on Monday bringing light winds and putting an end to the low level cold advection allowing highs on Monday to return to the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
Northeast flow holds as high pressure drifts slowly over lower Michigan today and tonight. The persistence of this northeast flow over the last 24 hours has advected a cooler and drier airmass into Se Mi. There will still be ample intervals of clear skies which combined with the weak gradient and dry air in the low levels will lead to a relatively cold night with lows down into the 40s outside of the Detroit metro area. Ample sun on Monday and some recovery in the low level thermal fields will support afternoon highs more solidly into the 70s.
Gradual warm up through the week High pressure both at the surface and aloft has caused winds to drop off to near zero in many locations across the region. However, a cold front along with the stronger/more pronounced disturbance appears to be Monday afternoon.
* Slightly warmer temperatures are expected today across the region. This afternoon, northwest flow will be in place over the High Plains, with high pressure to the west and an upper ridge over the Rockies. High temperatures will be slightly warmer this afternoon, ranging from the low to mid-80s.
Monsoon moisture will dwindle over the coming days, as high pressure strengthens along the west coast. High pressure is in the process of elongating and shifting from New Mexico to Arizona, and then the west coast over the next few days.
1002 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes for the beginning of the week, offering cooler and drier conditions.
710 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes and northwest flow aloft will bring a us dry day today with comfortable humidity. An upper level disturbance will team up with a slow moving frontal boundary and weak area of low pressure near the Delmarva Peninsula to cause an increase in clouds and possibly a few showers late tonight and during the day Monday.
High pressure will build overhead the next several days, which will push temperatures back to near record levels by Monday.
519 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes and northwest flow aloft will bring a us dry day today with comfortable humidity. An upper level disturbance will team up with a slow moving frontal boundary and weak area of low pressure near the Delmarva Peninsula to cause an increase in clouds and possibly a few showers late tonight and during the day Monday.
Warm on Sunday with highs in the low 90s along the coast, mid 90s inland.
623 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 (Today and tonight) As of 4 AM, a cold front had made it south of a line from Sterling City to Brownwood, and was continuing south through the area. Highs today will be cooler overall, but the greatest cooling will be experienced across the northern half of the area with the more significantly cooler air lagging well behind the front. In addition, with the front in the area, and upper ridge continuing to weaken/retreat westward, scattered thunderstorms will be possible, generally for areas west of a Haskell to Abilene to Brownwood line. Lows are expected to be in the low to mid 70s tonight.
Latest visible satellite shows low clouds slowly breaking across the western and northern Alleghenies with temps stuck in the low-mid 60s. Meanwhile, full sun across the lower Susq Valley has allowed mid morning temps to reach 80F. GEFS 2m temps anomalies are slightly negative today, suggesting highs a couple of degrees below average, which translates to near 70F over the highest terrain near the Route 6 corridor, and the low 80s in the Southern Valleys.
Temperatures will be considerably less hot than in recent days, thanks to a cold front that passed through the Midsouth last evening. A second cold front will pass through on Monday, bringing lower humidity and significantly limiting the chances of additional rainfall through midweek.
533 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Upper high currently sits over the 4 corners region, with the ridge stretching over the rockies, and northwest flow over our region. Precipitation should be out of the region by midnight, and as the upper ridge builds into the region, mostly dry and warmer conditions are expected through the work week.
For Monday the low level flow becomes more southeast to south and with plenty of moisture in place we'll see scattered convection along the southwest Florida coast move/develop northward and become more numerous through the day.