Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A moisture starved cold front will come through Tuesday night trimming the warmth closer to seasonable norms for midweek. Another cold front could impact the area over the weekend. Aloft, an anomolously strong ridge, 600 to 603 dam, over the central CONUS will continue to dominate as it extends eastward over the Carolinas. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s tonight. Confidence: Moderate to high Main Concern: Dangerous heat possible Tuesday An inland trough will give way to a passing cold front Tuesday night. No significant rain chances are expected through the period, mainly due to limited forcing and mid-level ridging/warming. The main issue this period will be the building heat and humidity on Tuesday with highs likely in the mid 90s most locales with some upper 90s possible inland before the cold front moves through.
1113 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 A warm night is expected across the Mid-South as temperatures only fall into the low to mid 70s overnight.
952 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Broad upper ridging continues to cover the central and eastern CONUS, while moisture emanating from Hurricane Hilary is pushing north over the western states. At the surface, high pressure sits over ND, resulting in some breezy easterly winds across our CWA. Over the next few days, the upper high/ridge will strengthen and broaden, resulting in another period of hot and dry weather.
1216 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (This evening through Monday) The forecast area will remain on the southwestern flank of an expansive and strong upper level high centered over the lower Missouri Valley. This in turn will have the chance of producing some upslope-induced convection Monday afternoon, although this is most likely to occur closer to the Pecos River valley farther away from the subsident effects of the upper high. However, there is a narrow band of mid level moisture rotating westward on the south side of the mid/upper ridge along and north of the Red River.
With the upper ridge still anchored over Kansas/Missouri, easterly flow has overtaken the column and Gulf moisture is beginning to permeate our airmass. As for temperatures on Tuesday, it will be noticeably cooler in areas that see precipitation, topping out in just the 80s! Elsewhere, despite no rainfall, dense cirrus cloud cover will keep temperatures near to just below normal, largely in the low to mid 90s.
Midday temps were running around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, and dew points had climbed about 10 degrees during the past 24 hours.
This may be partly due to increasing drier air through the lower levels. As drier air takes hold through the lower levels, convective coverage will continue to trend downwards. Winds will take awhile longer to come down as the gradient will remain pinched between the trough and an Atlantic ridge. Heading into mid week, a large high pressure system will briefly take hold over the eastern United States. By late in the week, the high over the eastern conus will largely migrate out into the Atlantic. This is due to a lingering tightness between an Atlantic ridge and the departing wave.
139 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 High pressure will build over the region through the first half of the week, before a weak boundary slips down through the region midweek. High pressure rebuilds for the latter half of the week. Temperatures and dewpoints a few degrees warmer than this time last night. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large expanse of upper level high pressure will be centered across the central Plains to start the week with ridging nosing through the southeast CONUS and off the coast.
(Today through Tuesday) A large high pressure system centered over the Midwest States will dominate the weather pattern over Alabama early this week. The high will suppress convective development and result in above normal high temperatures.
Anomalous ~600-dm 500-mb ridge continues across the region, centered to our west. Some high-level Pacific moisture should be more extensive tomorrow on the northern and eastern periphery of the ridge and could result in more cirrus than we've seen in recent days.
Expect high temperatures today to generally be similar to yesterday, although highs could be a degree or two lower in some areas with the ridge center shifting northeast and 500 mb heights potentially falling 1 dm or so. With the moisture mainly being in the mid-levels and hot and dry conditions in the low levels, expect most of any precipitation development to be virga, and with that, we are maintaining POPs around 10 percent, but keep them low enough to not be included in the zone or online point-and-click forecasts.
The expansive area of high pressure responsible for this heat wave will shift a little north of the local area today. In response, high temperatures should be a couple degrees cooler ranging from the upper 90s to around 103 for most places.
Anomalously strong (602 dam) 500mb ridge centered over NW Missouri will remain parked there, with the ridge axis extending ESE across Kentucky.
250 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 A sprawling upper level ridge will support unseasonably hot temperatures through Tuesday.
1038 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2023 The general 500mb forecast features a 601dam high pressure center over western Missouri with an upper level trough over the western quarter of the country.
WV imagery indicates a broad upper level area of high pressure stretched across the Central Plains. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure is anchored in eastern Colorado. Hot and dry conditions will continue through the middle part of the week with little change to the positioning of the broad upper level high situated across the Central Plains into the Western High Plains. Prevailing southerlies ahead of a weak lee side trough will reinforce a much warmer air mass across the high plains of western Kansas, supporting H85 temperatures in the upper 20s(C) in central Kansas to near 30C near the Colorado border.
413 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 An approaching cold front will bring clouds and a few showers today.
Persistent troughing along the West Coast combined with a large and sprawling dome of high pressure over the central U. Latest models point to portions of eastern Utah and the Colorado mountains along the Continental Divide for the highest odds of isolated to scattered showers and storms.
356 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 The rainfall across the northern half of the FA will gradually end as forcing lifts north with expanding ridging through the daytime.
231 AM MDT Mon Aug 21 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: A large area of hot high pressure currently exists over the southern and central Plains. Zonal flow exists along the International Border with a closed low forming off the coast of southern British Columbia.
237 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 A sprawling upper level ridge will support unseasonably hot temperatures through Tuesday.
Broad ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the central plains states with water vapor imagery showing very dry conditions over the central plains and extending westward to cover much of Colorado. With the high heat today and windy conditions, heat risk is higher today and will be issuing a heat advisory for portions of the plains, including the Denver area. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with an anomalous ridge of high pressure remaining centered over IA/MO Tuesday, while a trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. With above normal moisture beginning to move into western Colorado, this will bring some improvements in moisture over the high country.
I've elected to keep the High Wind Warning as I inherited it from earlier shifts, as I see no reason to edit the product at this point in time. As we head into the middle of this week, our upper level flow will remain out of the southwest as a massive upper level ridge remains parked over the Central CONUS, which will allow mild and somewhat moist air to continue to work through the area.
(Rest of Today) The 12Z sounding at BMX with mixing suggests temperatures in the lower to middle 90s this afternoon for highs.
The steady stream of moisture coming out of Hilary and around the ridge over the central U. The upper level low pressure center (around 10,000 ft above sea level) will remain distinguishable from surrounding atmospheric features as it moves north today and crosses over Idaho, eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and northwest Montana and all the way into Canada. That is because models are showing a deep trough off the west coast moving in behind Hilary causing stronger ridge top winds out of the southwest, which will in turn cause downsloping winds for much of western Montana causing a reduction in rain amounts. This approaching trough in combination with the remnants of Hilary are also causing winds to increase in southwest Montana where some wind advisories and warning have been issued for today.
648 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Upper ridging centered near Kansas City this morning, with an easterly wave over the central Gulf of Mexico. The upper ridge really isn't going much of anywhere in that time.
An unusual couple of days of cooler, wetter weather has begun.
647 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 An approaching cold front will bring clouds and a few showers today.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilary continues it's advance northward through Nevada bringing strong and gusty winds widespread showers, and isolated heavy rain through today. Concerning Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilary. Occasionally these winds will reach the surface and the High Wind Warning continues through the day.
638 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 A sprawling upper level ridge will support unseasonably hot temperatures through Tuesday.
636 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 An approaching cold front will bring clouds and a few showers today.
Drier Tuesday, then warmer temperatures by mid-week.
725 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (Today and tonight) A strong high pressure ridge over MO/KS will remain nearly stationary and continue to provide dry and clear conditions across the TN Valley today and tonight. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer, with highs today a few degrees above yesterday's highs, in the 90 to 95 degree range in most spots outisde the mountains.
1037 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Hot high pressure will continue to dominate the Southeast through Tuesday, resulting in a continued warming trend and dry conditions. A weak, dry cold front will push in from the northeast Tuesday night, bringing only temporary slightly cooler temperatures.
(Today and tonight) A sprawling and massive upper high centered over KS/MO will expand its influence a little more today over the service area. Strong high pressure aloft will keep the terminals free of any thunder for the next 24 hours.
The pressure gradient due to Hilary and the expansive high pressure in the central US will support the continuation of strong winds aloft. Soundings show that the instability later today could be inhibited by these weak lapse rates, and some of the high- res models are not developing convection until late afternoon. The showers should initially develop over the higher terrain then move northward. The high pressure remains locked over the central US and so the southerly flow over our area will persist. Persistent troughing along the West Coast combined with a large and sprawling dome of high pressure over the central U.
644 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 A few passing showers and sprinkles this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold front passage this afternoon brings cooler and drier weather as high pressure sits overhead into the end of the week.
604 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (Today through Tuesday) A large high pressure system centered over the Midwest States will dominate the weather pattern over Alabama early this week. The high will suppress convective development and result in above normal high temperatures.
647 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Hot high pressure will continue to dominate the Southeast through Tuesday, resulting in a continued warming trend and dry conditions. A weak, dry cold front will push in from the northeast Tuesday night, bringing only temporary slightly cooler temperatures.
Large upper high still expected to remain centered over the central CONUS extending well east and southeast over all of the forecast area. With much warmer temps today compared to yesterday, again favored MOS and non-NAM and non-Bias correcting inputs which have been significantly cooler than other inputs.
Also, with less cloud cover expected and the sea breeze unable to develop we'll see temperatures climb into the 90s everywhere, but it won't feel as bad as last week as dew points should fall into the lower 70s, possibly some upper 60s across parts of the Nature Coast this afternoon. As the tropical wave continues to move away from our area; into the Gulf of Mexico, high pressure will build in from the north today keeping easterly to northeasterly winds through the week. In terms of temperatures, daytime high temperatures are forecast to reach the lower to mid 90s with heat index values generally in the 100-105 range. As we approach the weekend, latest model guidance continues to suggest an upper level-trough dipping through the Great Lakes region helping to push the high pressure to Western U.
609 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (Today through Tuesday night) WV satellite shows a massive upper ridge centered roughly over MCI, placing the Panhandles under southeasterly flow aloft. Today and tomorrow, expect hot conditions given the warm temperatures aloft associated with the upper ridge to the northeast.
As of 2AM CDT, we've got some clouds over the majority of the region with temperatures in the high 50s to mid 60s. A ridge continues to dominate the upper level pattern through the short term period. Deterministic models show the high strengthening through the day today before starting to weaken Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures at the surface during the period will also be quite warm reaching into the low 90s in northern SD and into the low 100s in central SD. Humidity is going to make it feel even warmer, with dew points reaching into the 70s.
The upper ridge will slowly push to the east today, with southerly flow on the backside trying to increase moisture across southern Colorado today. While that is the case, it should only result in isolated shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon over the higher terrain.
1029 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 A historically-strong mid-latitude high will ridge east and across the Carolinas through Tuesday. The high will weaken and allow a moisture starved back-door cold front to settle south across the Carolinas Tuesday night.
628 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (Today and tonight) The 00Z SPC upper air map shows a 603 dam upper level ridge over Missouri and is expected to remain there through the day. In the eastern Gulf of Mexico an inverted trough with an associated area of low pressure is expected to continue tracking to the west towards the south Texas coast where it may develop into a tropical depression or storm Tuesday morning. Another day of hot temperatures is expected as a strong area of high pressure to our northeast continues to influence highs in the upper 90s to triple digits.
643 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 High pressure will maintain dry conditions across the region today, temperatures warming with above normal readings expected this afternoon.
The rainfall across the northern half of the FA will gradually end as forcing lifts north with expanding ridging through the daytime.
Excessive Heat Warnings rmn in effect today for all but some of the higher elevations in the Ozarks and far SE AR, where a Heat Advisory is posted.
(The rest of today ) Strong upper level high pressure remains firmly in place across the plains, which means another very hot day across E OK and NW AR.
Tonight and Tuesday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a warm front stretching from southwest Minnesota to northern Illinois early this afternoon. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Lake Superior region is funneling a relatively drier/cooler airmass into the region via northeast or east winds. As the warm front surges north into the region, thunderstorm and severe weather potential are the main forecast concerns through Tuesday. The warm front will gradually lift north across the northern Mississippi Valley and western Wisconsin. The warm front will continue to slowly bow north into Wisconsin with showers and storms dropping southeast across northeast Wisconsin during the morning. Temps are challenging due uncertainties revolving around warm front movement and track/timing of showers and storms.
For today, the hot conditions remains as the persistent ridge remains across the Plains.
359 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 A historically-strong mid-latitude high will ridge east and across the Carolinas through Tuesday. The high will weaken and allow a moisture starved back-door cold front to settle south across the Carolinas Tuesday night.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) High pressure has fixated over the central United States to start this work week. The tropical disturbance that passed south of our area has now become Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. A slot of drier air accompanied by Saharan dust will enter South Florida and reinforce the lower convective coverage.
The first concern is for gusty winds across Southwest Montana, especially at ridgetops and in north south oriented valleys. Hence, the High Wind Warnings will remain in effect through 3 AM tonight. 1 and 3 hour flash flood guidance is largely greater than 2 inches, which is on the high side considering expected precipitation. As we head into the middle of this week, our upper level flow will remain out of the southwest as a massive upper level ridge remains parked over the Central CONUS, which will allow mild and somewhat moist air to continue to work through the area.
250 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Overall look for limited shower chances tonight, with much warmer temperatures returning on Tuesday. Forecast soundings show this moisture getting trapped in the lower levels through tonight, indicating clouds may persist. Amplified ridge then nudges northward for the remainder of the day. Look for a much warmer and more humid airmass as a result. Apparent temperatures still look to be below advisory criteria, although caution will still be needed as this will be the first warmer day since late last week. Instability will be modest to high with this warmer airmass. With the high building in, limited sources of lift look to be present.
1232 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (Today and tonight) The 00Z SPC upper air map shows a 603 dam upper level ridge over Missouri and is expected to remain there through the day. In the eastern Gulf of Mexico an inverted trough with an associated area of low pressure is expected to continue tracking to the west towards the south Texas coast where it may develop into a tropical depression or storm Tuesday morning. Another day of hot temperatures is expected as a strong area of high pressure to our northeast continues to influence highs in the upper 90s to triple digits.
1247 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Upper ridging centered near Kansas City this morning, with an easterly wave over the central Gulf of Mexico. The upper ridge really isn't going much of anywhere in that time.
1200 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (Rest of Today) The 12Z sounding at BMX with mixing suggests temperatures in the lower to middle 90s this afternoon for highs.
Intense subtropical upper high remained centered near Kansas City at midday, with 600-602 dm heights. Dewpoints in the lower 70s will support heat indices as high as 109 in Barber county at peak heating. Clear and quiet again tonight under the western flank of the ridge.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) Dry and very hot weather to continue, as upper ridging will keep a tight grip on our weather.
1203 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (The rest of today ) Strong upper level high pressure remains firmly in place across the plains, which means another very hot day across E OK and NW AR.
214 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 A historically-strong mid-latitude high will ridge east and across the Carolinas through Tuesday. The high will weaken and allow a moisture starved back-door cold front to settle south across the Carolinas Tuesday night.
-thor MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: A large area of hot high pressure currently exists over the southern and central Plains. Zonal flow exists along the International Border with a closed low forming off the coast of southern British Columbia.
High pressure is advancing across Lk Superior. Yesterday's cold front is well south of MI. Disconnected from this, and well ahead of lee-side cyclogenesis in the northern high plains, a warm front is devleoping eastward across eastern SD and far southern MN. As the low level jet ramps up in the northern plains/upper MS Valley tonight, hot/moist air will drawn northward off of the heat dome in the central US.
1011 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 The showers are all now pretty well confined to areas north of the highway 2 corridor. The rainfall across the northern half of the FA will gradually end as forcing lifts north with expanding ridging through the daytime.
Have generally limited any low 70 dewpoints to the far southern FA, where temperatures look to reach the low 90s.
200 PM MDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Above normal temperatures continue through the short term period with the upper ridge parked over the central plains.
204 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 A historically-strong mid-latitude high will ridge east and across the Carolinas through Tuesday. The high will weaken and allow a moisture starved back-door cold front to settle south across the Carolinas Tuesday night.
Dew points are ranging from mid 70s along and west of I-65 to the low 70s east.
(This evening through Tuesday) Very strong upper level high pressure remains centered over the Missouri Valley with ridging extending over the southern High Plains and into New Mexico. Subsidence remains robust and with little movement to the ridge itself not much change is expected in our weather the next 24 hours. Of note is the tropical wave in the western Gulf of Mexico that is progged to move around the southwestern flank of the upper ridge. Models have consistently looked too far east with this feature given the strength of the ridge, and indeed models have been correcting westward with precip associated with this feature as it moves up the Rio Grande.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) A 602 decameter ridge at 500mb continues to dominate the weather pattern over the CONUS. Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 located in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to track westward toward south Texas along the southern periphery of the ridge.
1225 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Some of the low clouds are slowly scouring out this morning, but may take well into the afternoon for norht central SD to see any clearing. As of 2AM CDT, we've got some clouds over the majority of the region with temperatures in the high 50s to mid 60s. A ridge continues to dominate the upper level pattern through the short term period. Deterministic models show the high strengthening through the day today before starting to weaken Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures at the surface during the period will also be quite warm reaching into the low 90s in northern SD and into the low 100s in central SD. Humidity is going to make it feel even warmer, with dew points reaching into the 70s.
For the next few days, an upper level ridge will remain anchored over Missouri leading to warmer temperatures with heat index values reaching 105F or greater.
A more typical monsoon weather pattern will set up for the remainder of the week with daily shower and storm chances with the highest chances will remaining across southern Nevada and Northwest Arizona.
327 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 A cold front will bring a few light showers or sprinkles this afternoon, but otherwise mainly dry weather continues.
The upper level high pressure remains over the region, and will continue over the next several days.
1206 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (Today through Tuesday night) WV satellite shows a massive upper ridge centered roughly over MCI, placing the Panhandles under southeasterly flow aloft. Today and tomorrow, expect hot conditions given the warm temperatures aloft associated with the upper ridge to the northeast.