Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Areal coverage is expected to be considerably less and temperatures will be a little warmer.
Some convection is expected over western Michigan and portions of northern Indiana in association with a weak backdoor/westward moving cold front, but it should remain to our east. Temperatures will be a little cooler behind the front, especially over east central and southeastern Wisconsin, where highs will be in the upper 70s to low to mid 80s, with lower dewpoints.
Then dry weather is expected tonight through Saturday night as the HREF shows the upper ridge is moving to the west. With continued light easterly winds, expect similar lows in the low to mid 60s the next two nights as last night. Highs tomorrow will be in the low-mid 90s under a mostly sunny sky with deep mixing and 850mb temperatures in the 15-20C range. This vort max will be rotating around the south side of an upper high which will be centered over south central Canada which ensemble guidance has moving down into the Plains by midweek.
Drier and cooler air is expected Sunday behind the front and then a steady warming pattern is expected into the middle of the week before moisture and precip chances return. With the scattered clouds and light northeasterly winds expect overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. The pseudo-blocking pattern across the eastern CONUS will continue through the short term, with a tropical system - broad troughing extending into the GoM and a persistent ridge aloft centered over the Great Lakes. By late Saturday a sharp southward diving trough will move into New England which will in turn further drive the Atlantic high southward, pushing a weak front through our area. For Sunday, the Atlantic high will sag further south and weak wedge- like pressure ridge will develop lee of the Appalachians.
437 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Weak high pressure will build south from northern Quebec today and push into the Great Lakes by Sunday supporting bountiful amounts of sunshine. In the wake of the cold front, it will be notable cooler this weekend with highs in the 70s.
359 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Today and tonight: Slightly warmer and more humid conditions are in store for the region today, with the potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms in the south.
This greatly reduces the chances for flash flooding, though the higher precipitation amounts today have created some minor flooding issues over susceptible low lying areas/locations of poor drainage in Central/North-central MT.
(Today) A diffuse upper level low will continue to move into the area today bringing above normal PWAT and a good chance of showers and thunderstorms.
1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) Mid/upper-level ridging will keep weather conditions and temperatures mostly copacetic and near-seasonal across Deep South Texas through Saturday. Otherwise, another warm and muggy night is anticpated, with lows dropping into the low-mid 70s. Daytime Saturday looks dry and warm again for the region, perhaps a degree or two warmer for inland locations in comparison to today.
The highest chances Saturday afternoon and evening with heavy rain being the primary concern.
Convective temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s (which also happen to be around what our highs for the day will be). Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and lows in the low to mid 60s.
Blocking high centered over N. By Saturday night an upper low will drop south into the Mid Atlantic states and with it a backdoor/wedge front working south across the eastern US and into GA overnight Saturday into early Sunday. Temps on Sunday will be running 5-8 degrees cooler as a result.
Upper High that has been bring warm and dry weather has backed west into northern Minnesota and will continue to retrograde today and tonight into North Dakota.
A strong ridge is present over the Plains and Midwest this morning, stretching far into Canada. These winds bring elevated drier air into the region which will mix to the surface, lowering daytime dew points to the 50s while high temperatures reach near records in the low to mid 90s. A backdoor cold front near a New England low will push southwestward across the northeast today, resulting in a sharp decrease in temperatures for that region.
352 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Low level easterly flow driven by high pressure to the northeast will continue through Sunday. This low level easterly flow has ushered dry air into the region, leaving dry conditions and limited cloud cover today through early Sunday morning. Temperatures today will be the warmest compared to the past couple days with highs forecast in the low to mid 90s. Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. MMG/Glass The upper high centered near Lake Winnipeg will be the dominant feature at the start of the week helping promote deep east-northeast flow across the region. The flow regime will largely be responsible for the gradual advection of cooler and drier air into the region from the OH Valley.
323 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Summertime heat continues to build today with afternoon highs warming into the low-to-mid 90s.
The models are all in fair agreement on the track of this upper level high pressure system, currently anchored along a line from southern Hudson's Bay Canada down into Michigan and then back toward Arkansas. Over the next 36 hours, that upper high is going to continue to back-build west and north and be centered over southern Canada down into Oklahoma/Texas. In fact, by 18Z Saturday, the upper steering flow may be influenced enough by this upper high, that afternoon-heating-induced isolated/widely scattered convective chances may be a tough sell. By 12Z Sunday the western moving 500mb area of high pressure currently over the Upper Great Lakes will be over southern Manitoba and eastern ND. A ridge of high pressure will be set up at the surface as well, extending from a 1035-1037mb high over Hudson Bay.
Discussion: High pressure is passing to our north across northern Wisconsin and Minnesota with a stalled frontal boundary draped across southern southeastern Canada. High pressure at the surface and aloft will drift westward into the Red River Valley of the north through 00 UTC Sunday.
Less storm coverage and slightly warmer temperatures are on tap for tomorrow as northerly boundary layer flow and weak upper ridging keeps rain chances under control. Drier air with some ul ridging will set up by afternoon. On Sunday, a mid and upper level trough axis will slide southward.
This is likely due to such a weak flow present through the lowest levels. This will be only momentary as a trough will settle into the western and central Gulf of Mexico with ridging establishing itself across the western Caribbean.
but highs today should run in the lower 90s over much of the FA (mid 80s along the coast).
1156 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 (This evening through Saturday) The southern periphery of a more pronounced trough will continue to move across the area this evening. These storms will expand in coverage as the aforementioned trough and associated large scale ascent become juxtaposed and move through the area.
Just a couple showers have popped up south of the rim over the higher terrain. Saturday and Sunday - weak ridging across the state with similar moisture profiles as today.
Current sfc analysis depicts low pressure centered over southeastern MT. The upper ridge that currently sits off to our east will shift westward and settle over the region as the omega block continues to do what it does best.
933 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Temperatures have warmed a good bit this morning into the lower and middle 80s.
Early in the period, an intense (587 dam) 500-hpa ridge will limit the progression of deep troughing just off the coast of western British Columbia. Although general upper-level ridging will be present across a large portion of the area today, numerous weak short wave disturbances are under cutting the ridge over the central & northern Rockies, and are not expected to move much over the next 12-24 hours with weak steering flow in place aloft. Potential will exist for robust convection given persistent theta-e advection present in the lower levels through much of the forecast period. Current model guidance has this blocking pattern setting up over the central CONUS with an upper level closed low digging southward across the western seaboard and an additional low stalling out just north of the Great Lakes.
637 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Low level easterly flow driven by high pressure to the northeast will continue through Sunday. This low level easterly flow has ushered dry air into the region, leaving dry conditions and limited cloud cover today through early Sunday morning. Temperatures today will be the warmest compared to the past couple days with highs forecast in the low to mid 90s. Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. MMG/Glass The upper high centered near Lake Winnipeg will be the dominant feature at the start of the week helping promote deep east-northeast flow across the region. The flow regime will largely be responsible for the gradual advection of cooler and drier air into the region from the OH Valley.
At the surface, a weak inverted trough will develop over our region today and slowly drift westward through Sunday.
High pressure remains to our north, but is far enough away at this hour that the pressure gradient across our region is fairly lax, leading to light and variable or even calm winds at observing sites. Expect that high pressure to nudge southward today, inducing more of a northeasterly wind thru the day, event perhaps gusting to 15 kts at times.
08Z sfc analysis continues to show a weak pressure pattern through Kentucky with general low pressure well off to the southeast and higher pressure to the north. This has left the area with mostly clear skies and light winds - good conditions for radiational cooling and a moderate ridge to valley temperatures split. They all depict a retrograding pattern locally on the southeast side of a high latitude ridge and southwest of a deepening Downeast Maine trough also sliding toward Kentucky. The showers and any storms then fade out this evening followed by clearing skies and another small to moderate ridge to valley temperature split along with the development of some river valley fog. The period begins with a trough over the Commonwealth which will favor a few isolated showers and thunderstorms along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway.
532 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Summertime heat continues to build today with afternoon highs warming into the low-to-mid 90s.
We continue to see strong high pressure over southern Canada and much of the northern CONUS. A generally modest flow across southern tier states with embedded weaknesses dirtying up the base of the ridge as low pressure develops upstream and downstream over the next 72 hours.
Until the high moves further west on Sunday, another round of afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms is anticipated for today.
653 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Weak high pressure will build south from northern Quebec today and push into the Great Lakes by Sunday supporting bountiful amounts of sunshine. In the wake of the cold front, it will be notable cooler this weekend with highs in the 70s.
1038 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Weak high pressure will build south from northern Quebec today and push into the Great Lakes by Sunday supporting bountiful amounts of sunshine. It will be notable cooler this weekend with highs in the 70s.
Highs will reach the low 90s-- roughly 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year.
/86/ Today and tonight: Slightly warmer and more humid conditions are in store for the region today, with the potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms in the south.
528 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 (Today through Sunday) A mid-level anticyclone remains centered near Winnipeg, Manitoba, while downstream an upper low will move southward to New England. A weaker trough extends down the Atlantic coast and becomes positively tilted into the northeast Gulf, connecting to Tropical Storm Arlene.
Two weak low pressure system will be impacting the weather over the Northern Rockies this weekend.
633 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 (Today) A diffuse upper level low will continue to move into the area today bringing above normal PWAT and a good chance of showers and thunderstorms.
532 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Today and tonight: Slightly warmer and more humid conditions are in store for the region today, with the potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms in the south.
The Florida Keys remain in broad cyclonic flow owed to a combination of a pesky upper-level trough as well as being on the periphery of newly-downgraded Tropical Depression Arlene, located about 145 miles west southwest of the Dry Tortugas. KBYX radar continues to detect scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the offshore Gulf waters north and west of the Lower Keys, where the largest source of large- scale lift continues. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to wax and wane across the Florida Keys coastal waters, mainly in the coastal waters north and west of the Lower Keys, including the Dry Tortugas.
Previous-Upper High that has been bring warm and dry weather has backed west into northern Minnesota and will continue to retrograde today and tonight into North Dakota.
There is a signal in the CAMs for redevelopment across the High Plains that could eventually move into western Oklahoma and western north Texas late overnight.
Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s to lower 90s as of 19z, and expect high temperatures later this afternoon to top out in the lower to middle 90s across the forecast area. Dew point temperatures remain in the lower to middle 50s, and as a result apparent temperature values are actually a few degrees cooler than the air temperatures. Shower activity will diminish after sunset Sunday evening, with low temperatures dipping into the lower to middle 60s.
Dewpoints will drop into the 50s while temps climb into the lower 90s. Hot and mostly dry conditions will be the story this weekend with temperatures in the low 90s.
Hot and mostly dry conditions will be the story this weekend with temperatures in the low 90s. The work week will start out warm with highs in the lower 90s and a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A couple of back door cold fronts will drop temperatures back to normal later in the week.
With the high amounts of instability and some minor lift from nearby boundaries, we expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon.
In the mid to upper levels, a trough remains in place over the Florida Peninsula extending southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico with Tropical Depression Arlene embedded in this trough.
246 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 A rather weak cold front will arrive from the northeast tonight to bring both a 20 percent chance of a light shower, along with cooler temperatures for Sunday.
1013 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Summertime heat continues to build today with afternoon highs warming into the low-to-mid 90s.
This is thanks to an upper level low sitting west/southwest of Wyoming and a high pressure system centered over the Minnesota/Canada border. 63", so we are sitting at some of the highest PWAT values climatologically. Temperatures will remain on the cool side today and Sunday as the low pressure system continues to bring cooler temperatures and cloud cover keeps temperatures down. This low will begin to fill through the weekend, however, as upper level convergence occurs thanks to a piece of the jet stream. That aforementioned high pressure system over the midwest will be the dominate synoptic feature through the work week. The high pressure will also bring warmer temperatures.
Warm and dry conditions will persist into Sunday as high pressure remains aloft. Unsettled conditions return for the first half of the upcoming week as a low pressure system approaches the region.
204 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 High pressure will build south from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes this weekend supporting fair weather. It will be notable cooler this weekend with highs in the 70s.
(This evening through Sunday) An upper level trough and low pressure system will be moving to the south and southeast today through Sunday. While the low is in the northern part of the state today, winds will be primarily from the north with plenty of drier air advected. With the low/trough south of the state, upper level dynamics will support scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and lasting into the evening hours.
Tonight and Sunday The weather in the short term will look fairly similar to the past couple of days, as the retrograding ridge aloft inhibits any major airmass exchanges. Temperatures this morning rose quickly under sunny skies from the lower 60s to the lower and mid 80s by this afternoon. That said, the higher bases and dry air below will help melt any hail as it falls, potentially reducing the impact of any larger stones in the region. This should inhibit additional storms developing tomorrow, despite temperatures getting back into the lower to upper 80s.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Highs are topping out this mid afternoon in the low to mid 90s, but we also have lots of rain cooled sites in the 70s. We have maintained the high afternoon pops with this issuance to keep the wording right for the still coming wet forecast where conditions remain unstable. Temperatures will be slightly cooler and there may be some low clouds as well along with areas of showers or isolated thunder during the overnight or predawn hours.
Temperatures are notably warmer today compared to this time yesterday, especially across inland areas, where temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. High pressure aloft will continue to build in this weekend, bringing a slight warming trend for inland areas. This will increase onshore flow, deepen the marine layer, and bring cooler temperatures to SoCal.
On the other hand, while the probability of thunder increased today (from Fridayâs values), an upper low near Eklo, NV will provide an upper level flow pattern that may inhibit better thunderstorm development across the Sierra Nevada.
It also marks the beginning of a bizarre weather set-up with a Low pressure in Alberta, and another coming into southern California.
High pressure aloft will continue to build in this weekend, bringing a slight warming trend for inland areas. This will increase onshore flow, deepen the marine layer, and bring cooler temperatures to SoCal.
156 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Area continues to be under the influence of deep easterly flow this afternoon thanks to high pressure centered over Canada. This mornings upper air analysis showed the axis of the upper ridge over Missouri and Illinois with the HREF shifting to the west by tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be 1-3 degrees cooler as winds will be a bit stronger out of the northeast and GFS/NAM 850mb temperatures will be slightly cooler. Britt Latest ensemble guidance continues to show that the upper high centered near Lake Winnipeg early in the period will slowly move southwest into the northern High Plains by mid-late week. In the meantime, a series of upper lows will move southeast across eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS.
221 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 As dry Canadian air overspreads the region, it will be cooler for the rest of the weekend.
The main upper level low is now over northeast Nevada with remnants of an upper level low over southwestern Wyoming. Tomorrow the upper level low from northeast Nevada moves over our area.
Warming temperatures are expected through the weekend with isolated afternoon showers mainly in the higher terrain of the Southern Great Basin.
The lowest areas for relative humidity can be expected over our MN counties, where the lightest wind of around 10kts or less should remain. Early on in the forecast period, the ongoing upper level high pressure system centered over the nation's mid-section will be slowly transitioning west over the Rockies, eventually permitting a north/northwesterly (albeit weak) upper level steering flow pattern to develop.
(Now through Sunday) Mid to upper level troughing remains semi-permanent across the eastern CONUS. Temperatures will be hot, having topped out in the lower to middle 90's for most locations this afternoon. Looking aloft, a large upper trough remains draped across the eastern portion of the CONUS through late week as upper ridging builds into the central portion of the CONUS.
1220 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Temperatures have warmed a good bit this morning into the lower and middle 80s.
Have also bumped max temps on Sunday with the lower coverage expected.
A 500 hPa high pressure over Manitoba will start shifting closer to the Manitoba/Saskatchewan border per the latest GEFS run.
They all depict a retrograding pattern locally on the southeast side of a high latitude ridge and southwest of a deepening upper level low over the Northeast US. However, with the mid-level ridging remaining just south and west of us over central Kentucky into eastern Tennessee, would not be surprised if low-end PoPs trend downward for Sunday afternoon and early evening with future forecast updates/packages.
(Tonight) Gusty winds and mostly sunny skies have been the highlight of the TN Valley this afternoon as wind gusts up to 20-25 mph have been reported intermittently. Winds will decrease with sunset and temperatures are expected to drop into the low to mid 60s overnight, returning to near- normal values.
Additionally, the cooler afternoon temperatures as of recent will be replaced with more typical June temperatures, with afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s. On Sunday, expect warmer air to move back into Central MT, resulting in afternoon temperatures quite a bit warmer than they have been over the past few days.
1232 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Low level easterly flow driven by high pressure to the northeast will continue through Sunday. This low level easterly flow has ushered dry air into the region, leaving dry conditions and limited cloud cover today through early Sunday morning. Temperatures today will be the warmest compared to the past couple days with highs forecast in the low to mid 90s. Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. MMG/Glass The upper high centered near Lake Winnipeg will be the dominant feature at the start of the week helping promote deep east-northeast flow across the region. The flow regime will largely be responsible for the gradual advection of cooler and drier air into the region from the OH Valley.
300 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 A few showers and thunderstorms will continue across portions of the area through this evening with a crossing cold front. Dry air in place has limited shower and thunderstorm development across the region outside of the higher terrain areas. The showers/thunderstorms should gradually end this evening as instability diminishes, and the cold front completes its passage. High pressure will build across the region later tonight, maintaining the dry weather. An upper low is progged to persist across the northeastern CONUS through the period.
An upper dome of high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern for much of the north central US. The dome of high pressure retrogrades slightly to the west so the best chances of isolated to scattered showers and storms will also shift west a bit.
The low responsible for todayâs precipitation will move away on Sunday, but a new low approaching from the south will take its place.
Low pressure aloft is east of the area as high pressure aloft builds across the central CONUS. Flow around these systems will help to build in high pressure at the surface through the short term.
As for the temperatures in the short term, expect widespread low-90s this afternoon to give way to overnight lows generally around 70 (cooler northern counties, warmer in the city and at the coast). Tomorrow may be a few degrees cooler.