Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Breezy winds as a result of the troughing expected to decrease after this evening and through the remainder of the week, becoming light for most areas. Cloud cover increases as another upper level low moves in late Thursday evening, bringing chances of coastal drizzle. Synoptic pattern still features an unseasonably deep upper low just offshore that will pass over the Bay Area on Thursday. No fog concerns at this time given the higher cloud bases. Extensive 500 mb troughing remains along the West Coast. The polar jet stream will dig the upper level trough southward along the West Coast tonight and Thursday. The 500 mb trough will form in to a closed 500 mb low and move eastward across the Bay Area Thursday.
858 PM PDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Breezy winds as a result of the troughing expected to decrease after this evening and through the remainder of the week, becoming light for most areas. Cloud cover increases as another upper level low moves in late Thursday evening, bringing chances of coastal drizzle. Synoptic pattern still features an unseasonably deep upper low just offshore that will pass over the Bay Area on Thursday. No fog concerns at this time given the higher cloud bases. Extensive 500 mb troughing remains along the West Coast. The polar jet stream will dig the upper level trough southward along the West Coast tonight and Thursday. The 500 mb trough will form in to a closed 500 mb low and move eastward across the Bay Area Thursday.
Strong high pressure continues to hold over the Great Lakes and much of the NE US as well as Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec early this morning. closed upper low and an inverted trough axis/surface reflection are holding over the SE US. Surface ridging will hold over the Western Great Lakes region as the upper low lifts NE into the Ohio Valley later today and into tonight.
1233 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Persistent low pressure will maintain clouds and precipitation chances through the weekend. Temperatures will remain near to above average apart from cooler temperatures on Thursday. Evening precipitation will likely be limited to the ridges of WV/PA before stratiform rain spreads farther north overnight. Showers on the northern periphery of our forecast area will struggle overnight as they push northwards into ridging with more pronounced dry air.
255 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over central SD, with a nearly stationary frontal boundary stretching from southeast ND to southwest SD and southeast WY. Unsettled and cooler wx will be the main weather story over the next few days as persistent southwesterly flow remains across the region.
1219 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Widespread showers continue to rotate around an upper low centered over Middle Tennessee. Shower chances will prevail through the day with increasing chances of thunderstorms as day progresses as upper level low continues it's meandering across mid state region. That upper level low finally begins what will be a slow northeasterly track out of our forecast area initially on Thursday night.
949 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2023 A trough continues to sit across the western US, now with its axis over Idaho. Precipitation will be a little more widespread on Thursday as the trough digs farther south along the West Coast.
1135 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Today an upper level low to our southeast is wobbling back to the west slightly as it lifts north. Energy around this low is generating precip to our east and south but we seem to be lagging behind (in accordance with the NAM, HRRR, and RAP) with very little development so far. Given the extensive cu field on satellite, "popcorn convection" is still possible through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours, then should die off overnight except for maybe in the Pennyrile region (closest to the low). Highs today look to top out in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows will be in the 60s.
High temperatures will stay cooler in the 70s again today.
1140 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Showers have nearly all dissipated across the Midsouth as they move away from an upper level low centered over middle Tennessee and north Alabama.
1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over Chihuahua/Coahuila/Durango, for another day over warm temperatures across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Main concerns with this convection will be damaging winds, given the high LCLs/dry subcloud layers. Thursday, thicknesses come down a bit, for a "cooler" day, but with most locations still reaching triple-digit highs.
Some models and CAMs show storms that develop in the High Plains overnight/this morning could eventually move/develop into portions of the fa sometime today.
In the meantime an upper trough was lifting northeast across NW Montana. We expect to see a break in the precipitation for most areas today as weak anti-cyclonic flow prevails in the wake of the exiting upper trough into Canada.
1138 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Diurnal cumulus should develop again by midday Thursday with a general increase in mid level cloudiness Thursday into Thursday night as low pressure to the south finally wobbles north towards the area. Winds will remain east to northeast between this low to the south and high pressure centered to the northeast and north.
239 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 The focus for convection is expected to remain over the high Plains the next couple of days where the most unstable airmass will encounter periodic perturbations moving over the Rockies which will spill into and over the mean ridge aloft across the area.
412 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Overall forecast for today will be very similar to the previous days as the upper low begins to meander a bit further north into the southern Ohio Valley. Best chances for rain come late afternoon and well into the evening hours, mainly for areas east of the I-65 corridor as the center of the low tracks just to our east. Thick cloud cover associated with the upper low will blanket the region today, which in turn will limit temps to the low to mid 70s for most. Light NE sfc flow will keep overnight min temps just a touch below normal for this time of year, with just about everywhere outside the metros in the low 60s.
246 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023 MORNING FORECAST: The 500 hPa trough that has been parked over the Northwestern US will soon begin moving as the strong upper level ridge over the eastern provinces of Canada begins to break down and high pressure over northern Mexico builds.
In the short term, the meteorological setup is characterized by an upper-level trough positioned in the Western US, accompanied by a ridge dominating the Plains, and an upper-level low situated over the Eastern US.
(Today) Despite heat index values remaining in the low 90s, will continue the Heat Advisory today for counties which continue to experience power outages.
417 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Low pressure will lift slowly north across the Ohio Valley over the next couple of days.
1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Ridging continues to persist over the Central U. At this point, I don't anticipate dense fog unless we get quite substantive rainfalls and cooler advect. For tomorrow, we are advertising somewhat cooler temperatures than today (closer to the century mark in areas where we are seeing 105-109 this afternoon) thanks to a 20 or so meters in height falls though the past two days have seen some surprises with highs. Still, trended Max T values toward the high side of guidance based on these trends. With the cooler temperatures, and no substantive cooling aloft, one would expect less precipitation opportunity than today though forecast soundings do hint at an environment close to CI.
With temperatures in the lower 60s and cloud cover forecasted, todays high temperatures are still on track to the 70s. More chances of storms this afternoon only in the southeast as high pressure moves in the northwest. High temperatures will stay cooler in the 70s again today. The southwest flow will continue until a low pressure system with a lot of synoptic lift moves through late Friday.
Expect convective activity for the next few days as troughing continues over Northern California. The elongated upper level trough that has lingered over the West Coast dips towards southern CA, where the tightest pressure gradient accelerates westerlies into Baja and Ventura area.
Cloud cover increases as another upper level low deepens through today bringing chances of coastal drizzle Friday morning. Upper low centered over central coastal CA will deepen through today, further expanding the marine layer into tonight, leading to more widespread stratus coverage and patchy drizzle along coastal locations through late tonight.
610 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 (Today) Temperatures have fallen into the mid 60s to low 70s this morning as light showers move through the TN Valley in response to a mid/upper low pressure system tracking over the area.
517 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Latest water vapor imagery showed the upper low over the Tennessee Valley with a ridge over the Plains. At the surface, a ridge extended from the northeast through the Great lakes resulting in easterly flow over Missouri and Illinois. Latest run of the HREF is showing the upper low moving slowly north through tomorrow which will allow the upper ridge to slowly shift east. Will also go dry tomorrow as the upper ridge moves closer to the region. Warmer air will move into the area on Friday allowing highs to reach around 90. Britt Ensembles are in general agreement that the upper ridge over the Midwest on Friday night will flatten out and move east as the upper low moves from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes over the weekend.
846 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Light rain chances will likely overspread the region again tonight into early Friday morning from the south as a large low pressure system slowly advances north into the Ohio River.
* Multiple potential rounds for thunderstorms through the next 3 days ahead of the next cold front. * Pattern shifts as the cold front passes this weekend, with weak ridging building in for next work week. Currently the lowest visibilities we have are about 1SM, am not currently expecting dense fog, but patchy areas down to 1/2 mile are possible. There are a variety of thunderstorm chances over the next 3 days ahead of the next cold front.
Afternoon temperatures will trend warmer, reaching to just above seasonal normals after a chilly start this morning.
Aloft, ridging remains largely unchanged over the South Plains today and tonight, but this alone won't be enough to ward off another round or two of storms mainly later this afternoon and especially this evening. Some remnants of this complex or its outflow may graze our southeast Panhandle counties by the afternoon as stratus thins out, but a better window for convection should open farther west across nern NM where the aforementioned outflow is likely to aid in stronger upslope forcing underneath the ridge. NBM's cooler temps today and tonight fit this pattern well.
548 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 (Today) Despite heat index values remaining in the low 90s, will continue the Heat Advisory today for counties which continue to experience power outages.
352 AM PDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Cooler than normal temperatures into the weekend. Upper trough over the West Coast with embedded upper low over the Bay area will swing through NorCal today. Upper low will eject eastward into the Great Basin Region Friday, but trough will linger over the West Coast through the weekend.
Some models and CAMs show storms that develop in the High Plains overnight/this morning could eventually move/develop into portions of the fa sometime today. Additional storms could also develop in the High Plains this afternoon and affect parts of the fa overnight/early Friday. As for the heat, with potential cloud cover and rain/outflow along with a reduced influence of the upper ridge, temperatures are expected to be cooler than the last few days with highs in the 80s to mid 90s across the fa.
However normal high temperatures are around 80 degrees and based on the forecast 850 mb temperatures, if we mix to that level, we should still reach the low to mid 80s. This is when the mid to upper level low will be lifting up into Ontario. We'll start off dry Friday night as one upper low will be moving east of the state and another will be moving toward the state from the Plains.
453 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over central SD, with a nearly stationary frontal boundary stretching from southeast ND to southwest SD and southeast WY. Unsettled and cooler wx will be the main weather story over the next few days as persistent southwesterly flow remains across the region.
The models show a h700mb warm front lifting into wrn Nebraska Friday afternoon. At the same time, an upper low off the nrn CA coast will migrate into the nrn high Plains. Winds aloft will become quite strong with the approach of the low.
Below normal temperatures will persist through Friday as a large upper level low pressure system slowly lifts out of the region. Temperatures will warm this weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.
Strong high pressure continues to hold over the Great Lakes and much of the NE US as well as Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec early this morning. closed upper low and an inverted trough axis/surface reflection are holding over the SE US. Surface ridging will hold over the Western Great Lakes region as the upper low lifts NE into the Ohio Valley later today and into tonight. Ohio Valley upper low and surface reflection will slowly lift northward into the Eastern Great Lakes region Friday into Friday night.
The last couple of days (especially yesterday), we've had no problem mixing out, with our wx ending up warmer/drier/breezier than originally progged. Lots of mid 80s for highs, a little cooler near Lk Huron. Strong high pressure continues to hold over the Great Lakes and much of the NE US as well as Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec early this morning. closed upper low and an inverted trough axis/surface reflection are holding over the SE US. Surface ridging will hold over the Western Great Lakes region as the upper low lifts NE into the Ohio Valley later today and into tonight. Ohio Valley upper low and surface reflection will slowly lift northward into the Eastern Great Lakes region Friday into Friday night.
645 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) Upper ridge centered over Nrn Mexico will extend up across TX and NM into the Central Plains today. Out west a trough moving across the Great Basin will swing up the west side of the ridge Friday but not dislodge it as high pressure remains over the area. A large storm skirted Scurry county overnight putting out an outflow boundary that pushed through Midland bringing cooler temps to the NE Permian Basin.
The axis of the front is located a bit east of a theta-e ridge, as well, which will help lend moisture.
Overall forecast for today will be very similar to the previous days as the upper low begins to meander a bit further north into the southern Ohio Valley. Best chances for rain come late afternoon and well into the evening hours, mainly for areas east of the I-65 corridor as the center of the low tracks just to our east. Thick cloud cover associated with the upper low will blanket the region today, which in turn will limit temps to the low to mid 70s for most. Light NE sfc flow will keep overnight min temps just a touch below normal for this time of year, with just about everywhere outside the metros in the low 60s.
(Rest of Today) A slow moving upper low was detected on Water Vapor imagery centered right over the HUN forecast area. With time, most of this activity will shift southeast of the TN River through the afternoon hours as the low starts to pull northeast and northwesterly flow develops in its wake.
626 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Below normal temperatures will persist through Friday as a large upper level low pressure system slowly lifts out of the region. Temperatures will warm this weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.
501 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Updated Aviation Discussion Dry and milder conditions are expected today through tonight as weak high pressure develops across the region.
615 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 The focus for convection is expected to remain over the high Plains the next couple of days where the most unstable airmass will encounter periodic perturbations moving over the Rockies which will spill into and over the mean ridge aloft across the area.
This will also push the higher instability further east. Enhanced winds aloft from the mid-level jet mix down bringing breezy conditions to the high country. This will increase the threat for areas of critical fire weather conditions to portions of the high mountain valleys and Park County. Breezy conditions continue for the high country and adjacent plains. Potential for critical fire weather conditions stays in areas of the high mountain valleys and for much of Park County due to low relative humidity and breezy winds.
An upper level trough will slowly move eastward before exiting Friday while upper level high pressure over the Pacific will allow for warmer temperatures and generally drier conditions.
surface and upper level ridging will prevail across the western Great Lakes as we remains in between a weak cut-off low drifting into the Ohio Valley and a deep trough across the western U. Still tricky to determine if or how much the smoke will cut into highs, but with the thicker smoke expected over eastern WI, will not go any warmer than yesterday, but for locations to the west, will plan similar highs or a degree or two warmer. 850mb climb slightly but increasing moisture and clouds, along with possible smoke, could limit the potential to reach max heating, but still expect highs in the mid 80s to near 90, with easterly flow bringing slightly cooler readings near Lake Michigan.
An upper level trough continues its slow trek east from north- central California today. Highs will be warmer, in the 70s to low 80s for most. The trough progression will lead to isolated shower chances across the I-80 corridor and north. By Friday, the trough will have started to lift north and east. Highs will be cooler with the trough passage, ranging generally in the 60s and 70s.
DDV (Issued 305 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023) Today through Friday night: The upper ridge will remain over Ontario and srn Quebec for another day. At the sfc, the ridge will remain draped across the nrn Great Lakes to New England. The upper ridge will then breakdown while the large upper low currently over TN drifts back north to the Ohio Rvr Valley for Fri and newd afterward.
The upper low that moved southward earlier this week has now started to retrograde back towards the north through the period. The low is expected to pass over the Tennessee Valley and the Commonwealth today which will lower surface heights across the area this afternoon. Weakening upper level low pressure will be centered just to our north at the start of the period. Showers/thunderstorms built up from Friday's daytime heating beneath the low may last into Friday night, but should be on the decline as instability weakens.
Those east of I-65 continue to be the biggest beneficiaries from the upper low that has been driving our recent rains. This trend should continue as the upper low is expected to begin pulling away from Middle TN Thursday night.
The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled steep mid level lapse rates and deep southwesterlies associated with the east side of the trough axis. The low level cloud streamlines noted on VIS/IR sandwich imagery depict weakly converging flow across the island chain, albeit prior pancake batter from the earlier storms is much of the low level flow. Satellite derived moisture products (MIMIC TPW and CIRA LPW 850-700 mb) depict drier air to the south and southwest of the Lower Keys, which could put the kabash on the western extent of convection. High pressure extending from the western North Atlantic across South Florida will maintain light to gentle, mainly southeast breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters today.
634 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 (Today through Friday) The upper low remains across the Southeast, so another high chance PoP day is in store for today. The low begins to exit some on Friday, and rain chances will be highest in the southeast. Will need to monitor the actual location of the low as some wrap around may make it into the for northwest as well, but right now the consensus is for the south and east for the best chances.
/16 (Now through Friday) An upper low centered over eastern Tennessee moves north, leaving a mean upper trough over the eastern Conus.
Dry and milder conditions are expected today through tonight as weak high pressure develops across the region.
However, as the low ejects to the northeast, increasing chances for showers and storms exist again for Friday as the associated occluded front moves through the Commonwealth.
1120 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 (Rest of Today) A slow moving upper low was detected on Water Vapor imagery centered right over the HUN forecast area. With time, most of this activity will shift southeast of the TN River through the afternoon hours as the low starts to pull northeast and northwesterly flow develops in its wake.
151 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Light rain will overspread the region from the south again this evening through early Friday morning as low pressure slowly advances north into the Ohio River Valley.
Tonight and Friday After a chilly summer morning, temperatures have quickly rebounded this afternoon under mostly clear skies and temperatures have climbed into the 70s across the valleys with 60s generally the norm in the high country. We may push 80 degrees in a few sports across the lower Snake and into the Magic Valley by later this afternoon. Things change tomorrow however as a negatively tilted trough swings through the region during the daytime hours.
The upper low that has kept our weather so dreary this week will finally start slowly lifting to the northeast tonight, taking most of the rain and clouds with it. Areas across the Plateau will still be under the influence of the upper low, however rain coverage will be much less as we will be on the backside of it. Temperatures will be a good bit warmer with highs in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid 60s.
247 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Short Term/Aviation/Marine - Warm and windy for the rest of the day The large upper level low will continue to dominate the pattern today and through tomorrow. However it did moisten up the lower atmosphere. More bands of precipitation will cycle around the low tomorrow streaming in another round of clouds with higher PWAT values with it. We'll start off dry Friday night as one upper low will be moving east of the state and another will be moving toward the state from the Plains.
1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 A small pop, audible for some (east) and not for others (west) through the end of the work week, will linger with the near presence of an upper level low, now swirling across the Tennessee Valley. It ultimately lifts northward into the Mid Ohio Valley by this weekend, when we start to see some H5 height rises from ridging between it and the next system in the High Plains.
Widely scattered rain showers will continue to be possible east of I- 65 overnight as the upper low lifts through eastern KY into OH. With overcast skies expected through the night, temperatures will likely remain in the lower to mid 60s. For Friday, scattered afternoon showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible in association with the low slowly moving through Ohio. High temperatures will be a bit warmer than today, topping out in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
104 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Another rinse and repeat forecast is expected today as an upper level low remains centered over Middle Tennessee. Otherwise, the remainder of the day will be warm with temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
111 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 (Issued 111 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023) Tonight through Friday night: High pressure will keep the weather quiet through Friday night.