Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Breezy west winds will redevelop mid morning, however, with sunny skies and the west downslope winds, allowing temperatures to rise into the lower 70s Saturday afternoon.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed high pressure that stretched from MN eastward across the Great Lakes into southeast Ontario. An area of low pressure was situated over the Ozarks and will be our weather maker for Saturday. While stronger lift from the low pressure and left exit region of the upper jet to focus over southern WI, parts of east-central WI will see pretty strong mid- level Q-G and FGEN forcing by late tonight. Anticipate the morning hours to see the brunt of accumulating snow over east-central WI with the highest amounts over Manitowoc County.
304 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023 (Rest of today through Saturday) Weather conditions across South FL will remain dry and breezy this afternoon as high pressure over the Atlantic and mid-level ridging over the Florida peninsula dominate the weather pattern. Noontime temperatures across South FL have already reached the lower 80s, and could approach the mid 80s as the afternoon continues.
As a strong upper trough continues to spread eastward into the Ozarks this afternoon, the surface front will continue eastward into the Mid-South by this evening. Another cool night is expected Saturday night with lows in the lower 40s under clear skies and light winds.
931 AM PDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures persist through the next several days as onshore flow shifts to become more northerly.
We have also issued a Wind Advisory for gradient winds with the incoming low pressure system. There will be some upper level troughing behind the storms, so intervals of clouds and sun will be seen Saturday.
A low pressure system and associated frontal boundaries are the root cause of severe weather impacts for the Mid-South to begin this afternoon.
Instability is being pushed further to the east, however with the upper trough axis to the west and some clearing noted over NE TX, additional destabilization may lead to additional storm development across SE OK where at least isolated severe potential will be in place.
125 PM PDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures persist through the next several days as onshore flow shifts to become more northerly.
After sunset though, road temperatures drop near freezing allowing for variable road conditions, as narrow sections of roadways may quickly become snow covered and icy.
(This evening through Saturday) We will be in the wake of a departing short wave trough this evening and overnight but cyclonic flow aloft overhead will continue through the day on Saturday. A weaker short wave trough early on Saturday will be hot on the heels of the departing one. This next trough will be moving over northern New Mexico into southeastern Colorado overnight and will emerge onto the central Plains Saturday morning. Because of this early trough passage, maximum winds on Saturday will be during the morning hours and decrease through the afternoon. A surface cyclone will slide to the east across the northern Texas Panhandle early Saturday morning creating a strong pressure gradient.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a closed 500 mb low and trough off the CA coast 12z Tue. The troughing off the CA coast moves onshore 12z Wed with the northern plains trough moving into the Great Lakes region. Troughing moves into the Rockies 12z Thu and remains there through 12z Fri before moving into the northern plains.
18z surface data has low pressure in southeast Oklahoma with a frontal boundary into southern Missouri while high pressure was over the Great Lakes. Dry air from the high over the Great Lakes will keep dry conditions until almost sunset across the area. Bridges and overpasses will have the best chances of becoming slick and snow covered. Cooler than normal through mid-week then above normal temperatures with a significant storm system. high confidence Quiet, dry and chilly conditions will be seen as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
1108 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Current surface map places trough across central Montana into eastern Wyoming. For today trough slides into western South Dakota. Cold front slips through the area tonight. Stronger impulse ejecting from western CONUS trough moves through Wyoming tonight and into the Central Plains Saturday. With the lower snowfall rates and longer duration.
The upper trof across the central/southern Plains this afternoon will move east of the area late tonight.
Showers activity has decreased in coverage this evening as the upper level low pressure system exits the region. Satellite showing the next upper level low approaching northwest Washington state this evening. This system will follow a similar trajectory as today's low pressure system, with showers redeveloping Saturday morning across southeast Oregon moving into southwest Idaho Saturday afternoon.
Several supercell thunderstorms have developed south of this line into central Mississippi as well along a secondary warm front with the loss of daytime heating. Timing for the main period of severe weather still looks to be along and ahead of the pre-frontal trough axis that is currently producing this robust convection over western Mississippi. The strength of the low/mid level wind fields suggest some very strong wind gusts to between 65 and 75 could be possible where we remain surface based. Though, some large hail might occurred overnight if MUCAPE get around 1000 J/KG just ahead of the pre-frontal trough axis.
625 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) Latest radar imagery indicates a thin band of thunderstorms located just to our northeast, while most of the area continues to be impacted by light showers ahead of an advancing weak surface cold front. That being said, things should remain fairly comfortable for outdoor activities given the low dew points in place.
In addition, the surface dew points have risen considerably over the past 24 hours and is now in the lower 70s. Short Term Update - Through the overnight period the previously mentioned ridge will retreat eastward turning winds across the Keys further southeasterly. As a result, overnight lows will likely struggle to stray far from the mid 70s with dew points remaining in the lower 70s. A ridge across Florida will retreat further eastward through the overnight period.
510 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Water vapor shows negatively tilted trof extending from the Pac NW through the Four Corners, with notable waves over UT and WA. At the surface, trof is located over the western Dakotas. Surface flow will increase from the northeast behind a backdoor coldfront with many of the higher res models suggesting dense fog especially across northwest SD and possibly into south central SD.
616 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 A low pressure system and associated frontal boundaries are the root cause of severe weather impacts for the Mid-South to begin this afternoon.
632 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 (This evening through Saturday) We will be in the wake of a departing short wave trough this evening and overnight but cyclonic flow aloft overhead will continue through the day on Saturday. A weaker short wave trough early on Saturday will be hot on the heels of the departing one. This next trough will be moving over northern New Mexico into southeastern Colorado overnight and will emerge onto the central Plains Saturday morning. Because of this early trough passage, maximum winds on Saturday will be during the morning hours and decrease through the afternoon. A surface cyclone will slide to the east across the northern Texas Panhandle early Saturday morning creating a strong pressure gradient.
Temperatures there were able to rise into the low to mid 50s with light northeasterly winds. Further south, mostly cloudy skies have resulted in afternoon temperatures of about 5 to 10 degrees cooler. This system is starting to take form as the upper-level trough pivots and takes on a more negative tilt as it moves out into the Southern Plains. Thunderstorms were quick to develop this afternoon near the triple point and southward along the cold front, and have rapidly become severe this afternoon.
The lower visibility reports have been somewhat scattered in both observations and on DOT webcams. The warmer temperatures from today will again cool for tomorrow with highs Saturday mainly in the 20s and lower 30s.
(Rest of today through Saturday) Weather conditions across South FL will remain dry and breezy this afternoon as high pressure over the Atlantic and mid-level ridging over the Florida peninsula dominate the weather pattern. Noontime temperatures across South FL have already reached the lower 80s, and could approach the mid 80s as the afternoon continues.
Snowfall and refreezing of melted snow can cause icy road conditions.
Early evening water vapor satellite and KTBW 00z sounding are showing the effects of strong ridging remaining over the area, with broad subsidence keeping warm and dry conditions in place this afternoon. Periods of MVFR and IFR/LIFR are then likely, with the highest chances from 08-12z over southwest Florida (around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD), and 10-14z over the Tampa Bay area terminals (around KTPA, KPIE, KSRQ, and KLAL). High pressure will continue ridging into the eastern Gulf of Mexico from the Atlantic this weekend as a weak front washes out to the north on Saturday, with a few showers possible. The main forecast concern will be for the potential for some patchy sea fog developing tonight and into Saturday morning over the relatively cooler waters along the Nature Coast.
BUFKIT soundings suggest this area has the best chance to mix down some of the higher gusts close to 40 mph. High pressure temporarily moves overhead late this afternoon and evening. This will allow a cold front to move across our area Sunday evening.
1233 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 (This evening through Saturday) We will be in the wake of a departing short wave trough this evening and overnight but cyclonic flow aloft overhead will continue through the day on Saturday. A weaker short wave trough early on Saturday will be hot on the heels of the departing one. This next trough will be moving over northern New Mexico into southeastern Colorado overnight and will emerge onto the central Plains Saturday morning. Because of this early trough passage, maximum winds on Saturday will be during the morning hours and decrease through the afternoon. A surface cyclone will slide to the east across the northern Texas Panhandle early Saturday morning creating a strong pressure gradient.
Overview: Water vapor satellite imagery and heights had the leading trough over the western Plains with a trailing 500mb trough from Washington State through Idaho and Utah. Convection was noted ahead of the trough across the Lower Mississippi River Valley northeast toward Kentucky and the Mid-Atlantic Region. Sunday/Sunday night, the next piece of energy with the large trough still over the Rockies moves across Iowa. The trough across the central U.
Skies are clearing across much of Arizona, and any lingering snow showers over the high terrain will dissipate tonight. This is where the highest chances for rain and snow will continue this afternoon and evening somewhere between 30-60%.
Given the expectation of cloud cover over much of the area today along with a developing onshore northerly flow went on the lower end of temp guidance leaning more toward the ConsAll which has max temps in the lower to mid 30s east and north central with maybe some upper 30s readings possible south central. By tonight, the low pressure that passed through the Lower Peninsula will have made it to the Georgian Bay. No meaningful accumulation is expected, and CAMs are even a bit inconsistent on the placement of northwesterly bands, but whatever bands form will wrap up by Sunday night as ridging (and associated subsidence/dry air) builds in.
* SEASONABLE-COOL START TO NEW WEEK: periodic pcpn chances, highlighting the Thu-Fri period Cooler, Canadian air flows across the region post the departing storm system today, and hangs around through at least the middle part of the new work week. Winds back to the NE overnight ahead of an approaching low pressure system that will pass to the SE early this morning through Illinois.
1141 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Recently showers and isolated storms have initiated ahead of a cold front that is currently stretching from the west of the ArkLaTx region down through central and south TX. Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today, getting into the low to mid 80s. The prior front will retrograde back north as a warm front.
A cold front will push southeastward into the region as the morning progresses, clearing the fog and supporting partly to mostly cloudy skies through the remainder of the day. High temperatures today will range from the lower 20s in the Devils Lake basin, to the upper 30s near Park Rapids and Bemidji. Pressure gradients following the cold front will be sufficient to allow gusty north winds, with 25 to 30 mph gusts possible through the afternoon. Heading into Sunday, morning temperatures in the single digits below zero are expected west of the Red River, with slightly warmer lows to the east. High temperatures will be slightly cooler than today, with 20s and 30s across the region.
210 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Once again we're getting some patchy Dense Freezing Fog forming in areas of northeast Montana. An upper level Low to our south will bring precipitation to central and southeast Montana the next couple days. A weak backdoor cold front will help hold precipitation chances to the south as well as drop our temperatures a few degrees, especially in the southern half of the CWA where bare ground helped warm things up the last couple days.
Slightly warmer with highs in the 70s north of I-20 and into the low 80s across the Presidio Valley and Big Bend.
1135 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) Latest radar imagery indicates a thin band of thunderstorms located just to our northeast, while most of the area continues to be impacted by light showers ahead of an advancing weak surface cold front. That being said, things should remain fairly comfortable for outdoor activities given the low dew points in place.
Weak high pressure should keep us dry across the Midsouth through most of the weekend although a few showers may return to north Mississippi late Sunday.
There is a very slim chance of a shower along the cold front this afternoon, but our PoP will remain below 15%, so no mention at this time.
(Today and tonight) West winds will ramp up again today as a surface cyclone moves southeast across the Texas Panhandle and upper level wind speeds increase. However, tonight will be much cooler than average with lows around 10 degrees colder due to efficient radiational cooling from clear skies, much calmer winds, and very dry air.
Warm front extends from the low into northern KY with a cold front draped over the southern half of the Mississippi River. Large area of rain ahead of the low and cold front with convection mainly confined to areas from KLEX to KCHA and south. Meanwhile, cold front from the current system also tracks east across KY. Cooler descending air behind the front will mix down the strong winds aloft bringing gusts to around 40 mph to much of the region.
209 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Current surface map places weak cold front across southeast Montana into western South Dakota. With the higher resolution model input, HREF is a bit more bullish for the Black Hills.
Wide variation in wind directions today, with most locations expected to see west to northwest into the afternoon followed by weak trough progression shifting winds to more north and northeast late in the day. With progression of a low amplitude s/wv trough near and north of the Kansas border today, a few light showers will be possible.
The second area will be slightly further west and northwest, generally across the Highway 26 corridor from Janesville/Beloit to Watertown to Waupun. In addition to mid level frontogenesis, this area will likely be the pivot point for the area of moderate to occasional heavy snow as the parent low pressure center lifts from northeastern Indiana to Lake Huron. If winds fall off enough, we will need to watch for some fog/freezing fog, especially over the new snowpack.
High pressure in the lower levels on Sunday will pull this colder air down towards the surface.
High pressure and warming temperatures will continue through the weekend. A cold front will pass to our north today with the only effects being a small chance of rain over Levy County.
Given the expectation of cloud cover over much of the area today along with a developing onshore northerly flow went on the lower end of temp guidance leaning more toward the ConsAll which has max temps in the lower to mid 30s east and north central with maybe some upper 30s readings possible south central. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a closed 500 mb low and trough off the CA coast 12z Tue. The troughing off the CA coast moves onshore 12z Wed with the northern plains trough moving into the Great Lakes region. Troughing moves into the Rockies 12z Thu and remains there through 12z Fri before moving into the northern plains.
930 PM PDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures persist through the next several days as onshore flow shifts to become more northerly.
(Saturday through Sunday) In the wake of the passing cold front, calming winds in a thoroughly saturated environment are favoring the development of areas of patchy dense fog through the predawn hours.
High pressure continues to be locked in across South Florida. A low pressure system moving across the Southeast with a cold front producing severe weather will remain well to the north as the consistent high blocks the front from making it any further than north Florida.
1032 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Water vapor shows negatively tilted trof extending from the Pac NW through the Four Corners, with notable waves over UT and WA. At the surface, trof is located over the western Dakotas. Surface flow will increase from the northeast behind a backdoor coldfront with many of the higher res models suggesting dense fog especially across northwest SD and possibly into south central SD.
1229 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 A low pressure system and associated frontal boundaries are the root cause of severe weather impacts for the Mid-South to begin this afternoon. Above normal temperatures this week and a high pressure system will allot for dry weather until a late week system approaches.
Some wrap around moisture on the back side of the upper low could rotate SE into NRN sections of the state this morning. A cold front will approach from the NW late Sun afternoon. and the NWRN/NRN sections ahead of the cold front. This cold front will push SE into the state Sun night.
Expect the activity to end 12-15 utc as short wave anchoring trough moves into upper Midwest. Temperatures will be near normal, ranging from the lower 40s along the NE-SD border to the middle 50s KS-NE and IA-MO borders. Trended slightly cooler than NBM on Sunday, as deterministic temperature fields were less than 25% NBM values.
A broad trough will remain over western states with the storm track north of our area.
Current surface map places weak cold front across southeast Montana into western South Dakota. With the higher resolution model input, HREF is a bit more bullish for the Black Hills.
* SEASONABLE-COOL START TO NEW WEEK: periodic pcpn chances, highlighting the Thu-Fri period Cooler, Canadian air flows across the region post the departing storm system today, and hangs around through at least the middle part of the new work week. Low pressure to the south of the area will continue to spread some high clouds over the region during the day today.
/44/ (Saturday through Sunday) In the wake of the passing cold front, calming winds in a thoroughly saturated environment are favoring the development of areas of patchy dense fog through the predawn hours.
With the cold core of a trough just to the north today, an area of convectively induced snow showers are expected to develop this afternoon into the overnight. Accumulations look to mainly be light, with around 1 to 3 inches possible in the heaviest snow over the high terrain. Across the lower elevations, temperatures will be cold enough for snow, but accumulations should generally be a an inch or less.
Model guidance and surface observations indicate that the surface warm front near the Gulf Coast could retreat rapidly near and after dusk on strengthening low level southerly flow.
(Today through Sunday) Clear skies and dry air are in place across South Central Texas in the wake of yesterday's Pacific cold front. A warm front is forecast to lift back well into the central and eastern areas Sunday morning.
625 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 (Saturday through Sunday) In the wake of the passing cold front, calming winds in a thoroughly saturated environment are favoring the development of areas of patchy dense fog through the predawn hours.
A broad trough of low pressure will remain in place right across the forecast area throughout this weekend, bringing multiple additional rounds of snow showers. Expect a relative break in the wx late Sun night into Mon as the overall trough ejects east into the Plains.
Therefore, showers were highly limited to a narrow band that passed over the Lower Keys between Boca Chica and Sugarloaf Keys. Current temperatures are already in the lower 80s. Winds will remain from the southeast helping to keep dew points in the lower 70s along with muggy conditions. From synopsis: Gentle to moderate breezes will continue this afternoon as high pressure is nudged eastward by an incoming frontal system.
637 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 (Today through Sunday) Clear skies and dry air are in place across South Central Texas in the wake of yesterday's Pacific cold front. A warm front is forecast to lift back well into the central and eastern areas Sunday morning.
Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 60s for most areas.
626 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Weak high pressure should keep us dry across the Midsouth through most of the weekend although a few showers may return to north Mississippi late Sunday.
455 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Once again we're getting some patchy Dense Freezing Fog forming in areas of northeast Montana. An upper level Low to our south will bring precipitation to central and southeast Montana the next couple days. A weak backdoor cold front will help hold precipitation chances to the south as well as drop our temperatures a few degrees, especially in the southern half of the CWA where bare ground helped warm things up the last couple days.
(Rest of Today) Drier air will filter in across the area today as a cold front shifts southeast of the Tennessee River. High pressure will build across the central US while the sfc front is held up to our south, and skies will continue clearing through the morning.
534 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Current surface map places weak cold front across southeast Montana into western South Dakota. With the higher resolution model input, HREF is a bit more bullish for the Black Hills.
Widespread snow has been observed across south-central Montana and northern Wyoming on the north-northwest periphery of this low pressure system. Snow showers will develop on the north- northwest quadrant of the low. The 10th and 50th percentile snow amounts (low end and most likely amounts) have small discrepancies, while the high end snow amounts (75-90th percentile) are notably higher. The higher end scenario would bring snow accumulations of 5-10 inches along the divide, with higher amounts in the mountains.