Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Moisture associated with the trough is not abundant so rainfall is not expected to be heavy. Additional clearing is expected behind the trough with mostly mid to high level clouds possible by Sunday evening.
South winds will increase across the area and veered flow just off the surface will bring a warmer airmass from the west, which will allow even warmer temperatures across the area from what was seen yesterday.
Ridging centered over the Desert Southwest will build into the region in the wake. Low- level ridge will build eastward, leading to a gradual return flow to the west into the late aftn to evening hours. Leaned towards cooler MOS consensus east of I-55 in the mid-upper 40s to low 50s to the west.
Upper level ridging with scattered to overcast upper level clouds will affect the region. At the surface, lee troughing from eastern Colorado into northeastern New Mexico will keep our winds out of the south at 5 to 15 mph, with a few gusts to near 20 mph during the afternoon hours. With this upper ridging and continued southerly winds, highs should be 2 to 3 degrees warmer than yesterday. Tonight, continued light southerly winds at the surface, and increasing mid/upper level clouds will result in warmer overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s.
1247 AM CDT Sun Nov 5 2023 (This evening through Sunday) One more round of cooler overnight temperatures are in store for West Central Texas, ranging in the mid 40s to mid 50s overnight tonight into Sunday morning. With this cloud cover sticking around for much of the day Sunday, slightly cooler high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are expected for Sunday.
NWP guidance has (for the last several days) been forecasting a rather impressive upward vertical motion field in conjunction with this feature (which is apparent in recent lightning activity across the southwestern portion of MO), and we may very well see an increase in virga and perhaps even a few sprinkles of rain across the TN Valley between 6-12Z as the axis of the amplifying trough approaches from the northwest.
329 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 High pressure will cover the region today through Monday. High temperatures this afternoon will range from around 50 degrees in the northwest mountains to the lower 70s in the piedmont. Under mostly clear conditions tonight, low temperatures will vary from the lower 30s in the mountains to around 40 degrees in the Piedmont.
Should see a mostly sunny day as skies quickly clear with the trough axis pushing through around sunrise.
1150 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 Areas of mist and freezing drizzle continue across portions of the area, primarily southern Beltrami and northern Hubbard Counties. Temperatures are generally in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees for areas north of Highway 200, with warmer temps in the 30s to low 40s to the south. Made slight adjustments to weather grids to extend the temporal footprint of drizzle/freezing drizzle into the late evening. -Lingering impacts from freezing drizzle across portions of northwestern MN. Both the HREF and NBM show non-zero freezing precipitation chances, and the NBM has probabilities of FZRA as high as 70 percent in the northern Red River Valley. Impacts from any freezing rain should be fairly short lived as warmer temperatures quickly move into even the northern counties by late morning.
149 AM EDT Sun Nov 5 2023 A weak cold front will move through the region tonight. High pressure will then build in Sunday and Sunday night before moving off to the east.
(Today through Monday) The dry northwesterly flow aloft will eventually be replaced with a more relaxed upper flow pattern as an upper ridge begins to migrate into the region and should center to our south over the western Gulf of Mexico and/or Bay of Campeche.
This development will initially start off the caprock and gradually spread onto the higher terrain towards the central Panhandles through early morning.
Given this, most precipitation that does fall should remain liquid overnight, but an occasional freezing rain/drizzle can't be ruled out. Regardless, impacts of freezing/rain will remain minimal. Slightly warmer and drier than normal conditions are still favored under mostly zonal flow for the remainder of the week. Scattered showers are forming over northeast Montana with the freezing level from the 00Z sounding at KGGW was near 7000 ft.
The low track is well to the north, across Lake Superior into southern Canada, so the best f-gen forcing and bulk of the precip will miss southern Lower Michigan. Ahead of the cold front, rain showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder are a risk mainly north of a Holland to Lansing line. Throughout Monday morning and into early afternoon, wind gusts region wide of 35 to 45 mph are expected, with the highest gusts along the lakeshore most likely.
Lows overnight will drop to the mid 60s near Lake Okechobee, and the low 70s along the coastal areas.
1240 AM EDT Sun Nov 5 2023 High pressure will largely remain in place over central NC with a secondary reinforcing area of high pressure building over the area Monday through mid week. Overnight low temperatures will generally be in the mid 40s with cooler spots in the mid/upper 30s.
Overall precipitation amounts are expected to be light with areas along the Highway 36 corridor seeing the most rainfall, up to one-tenth of an inch. A perturbation ejecting across the northern Plains will push a weak cold front through the area on Monday although FROPA is expected to be dry with the only sensible impact being a switch of the winds to the northeast.
The next Pacific storm will bring more rain Sunday night and especially Monday, with showers continuing Monday night as the snow level lowers to near 5000 feet MSL north to 7000 feet south with arrival of the upper trough.
The highest rain chances (40-70%) will be north of Interstate 94.
The induced ridging for today is pushing to the east of the CWA as increasing clouds spill in from the west.
(Today through Monday afternoon) Upper pattern Monday night starts with zonal flow across the country and an upper trough moving ashore the West Coast.
In the wake of the trough, northerly to northwesterly flow aloft will briefly return for the remainder of the period. At the surface, a large, sprawling ridge of high pressure centered over the Appalachians continues to stretch across the southeast US, helping to maintain a light northerly to northeasterly flow pattern across our area. Subsidence from this high, as well as a continued lack of deep-layer moisture (PWATs generally around 0. Lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 40s inland, and the low to mid 50s along the coast.
149 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 High pressure will rebuild over the area as offshore low pressure moves out to sea. The high will will prevail over the Carolinas through much of the upcoming week. A mainly dry cold front is forecast to move through late in the week. Low pressure offshore will move well away from the area today allowing high pressure to rebuild over the region from the west resulting in dry/pleasant conditions. High temps will warm into the low to mid 70s inland with upper 60s expected along the beaches.
Deeper mixing and some cloud breaks should lead to one more day of above normal warmth with highs again in the 60s, and possibly around 70 or the lower 70s should more solar insolation be found.
today then a more zonal flow becomes established with some weak ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula through midweek. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will settle over the area for the first half of the week with northerly winds becoming lighter and more northeast and eventually east by midweek.
A pattern change is expected for the middle of this week as an upper level trough traverses the western CONUS, likely dropping temperatures to near and slightly below normal levels. Early morning upper-air analysis reveals upper ridging encompassing much of the Intermountain West, along with a notable upper-low centered just off the coast of central Baja. This ridging pattern will continue through the start of this upcoming week, helping to keep regional temperatures unseasonably warm for this time of year. Daytime highs across the lower deserts for today and Monday will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.
644 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 Weak high pressure will build into the area today and then move off to the east Monday. This high will offer dry weather with a warming trend as a southerly flow develops on the back side of the departing high.
High temperatures will mostly range the low 80s this afternoon, however, northern Lake and Volusia counties will remain slightly cooler in the upper 70s. Dry air accompanied by high pressure shifting over Florida will result in low relative humidity values today and Monday, mainly along and north of the I-4 corridor, leading to an elevated risk of fire weather conditions.
531 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2023 (Today through Monday) The dry northwesterly flow aloft will eventually be replaced with a more relaxed upper flow pattern as an upper ridge begins to migrate into the region and should center to our south over the western Gulf of Mexico and/or Bay of Campeche.
There is a 15 percent probability for freezing rain towards daybreak along US-2 south of Libby towards Kila, in the outskirts of Kalispell, and also portions of Highway 200 east of Missoula. It's a tough forecast as there will be plenty of cloud cover moving over the region later tonight which could help keep lows from getting to freezing.
452 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2023 (Today through Monday afternoon) Upper pattern Monday night starts with zonal flow across the country and an upper trough moving ashore the West Coast.
High pressure aloft will lead to slightly warmer temperatures today with highs 2-4 degrees warmer than yesterday. Monday is expected to be similar with highs a few degrees warmer than today.
331 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2023 (Issued 331 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2023) Today through Monday: Warm advection aloft will increase today into tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Plenty of mid and high level clouds are expected, though the low levels will remain fairly dry today. The low levels may moisten up enough ahead of the front for a few showers in the area later tonight into early Monday. The warm surge ahead of the front will likely push high temps into at least the low 60s tomorrow.
A pair of cold fronts will bring periods of light rain to the Bay Area through Monday night. (Today and tonight) A cold front is analyzed about 200 mi west of San Francisco with a second front farther in the Pacific. This high relative humidity will also bring periods of dense fog to the North Bay Valleys and Monterey Bay area this morning.
745 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 Aviation A high pressure ridge still in control of our wx pattern will bring partly sunny skies today and seasonably mild temps in the lower to middle 50s this afternoon as winds back to the southwest and waa commences. Warm air advection showers will develop across our area late Sunday night and Monday as southerly winds strengthen to around 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts on the back side of the departing ridge and ahead of the low pressure system moving east across the northern Great Lakes region.
917 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 Weak high pressure will build into the area today and then move off to the east Monday. This high will offer dry weather with a warming trend as a southerly flow develops on the back side of the departing high.
The main form will be rain with temperatures warming to well above freezing.
The main center of the ridge should move off the Atlantic Coast during the day Monday, with our low level flow shifting from NRLY to a light S- SW flow into AL.
with just occasional weak troughs rippling through it will bring seasonably mild and generally dry conditions through Election Day.
As we get into the evening to early overnight hours, low level winds will be on the increase as a low level jet develops ahead of the approaching low pressure system. Finally, precipitation will expand over much of central and east- central Wisconsin overnight as the low crosses the region and the trailing cold front sweeps across the region. As warm air advection ramps up through the day today and overnight, temperatures on Monday will have a brief chance to be warmer if precipitation moves out early and cold air advection aloft doesn't yet reach the surface. If this occurs, portions of east-central WI will hit the lower 60s, but if not they will likely remain in the 50s through Monday morning.
230 AM PST Sun Nov 5 2023 A weak ridge will maintain its presence over our region today with similar weather to yesterday. A lingering trough offshore will begin to have greater influence first west of the mountains by Monday with cooler temperatures and greater extent of low clouds and fog each morning.
With this in mind, leaned towards some of the warmer solutions in the guidance, though still remaining cooler than NBM 75th values. Expecting highs generally in the lower to mid 70s for much of the area, with some warmer values possible in locations unaffected by cloud cover.
High temps will be in the low to mid 80s. Lows overnight will drop to the mid 60s near Lake Okechobee, and the low 70s along the coastal areas.
By contrast, expect a light southerly wind to persist on through tonight and result in slightly warmer temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s with less ideal conditions for any fog development. As weak upper-level ridging flattens out into a more zonal flow pattern on Monday, the trend of warmer temperatures and tranquil weather will continue as sunny skies dominate. Consequently, we should manage to pad high temperatures by a few more degrees as compared to this afternoon with the vast majority of the region topping out in the lower 80s.
However, we could start to see some changes as the mid and upper ridge begins shifting slowly east. So, will keep POPs low/nil through the short-term Otherwise, the high clouds moving in from the W/SW appear to be hav- ing an impact on potential fog development this morning. Highs today will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. with lows a degree or two warmer (than tonight) in the mid to upper 60s.
949 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 High pressure will rebuild over the area as offshore low pressure moves out to sea. The high will will prevail over the Carolinas through much of the upcoming week. A mainly dry cold front is forecast to move through late in the week. High temps will warm into the low to mid 70s inland with upper 60s expected along the beaches.
1008 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2023 (Issued 1008 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2023) Mid level and high level clouds are spreading into southern WI as low pressure approaches from the Northern Plains. Cronce (Issued 331 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2023) Today through Monday: Warm advection aloft will increase today into tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Plenty of mid and high level clouds are expected, though the low levels will remain fairly dry today. The low levels may moisten up enough ahead of the front for a few showers in the area later tonight into early Monday. The warm surge ahead of the front will likely push high temps into at least the low 60s tomorrow.
Forecast remains on track for today, with highs expected to reach the lower 80s this afternoon.
(This evening through Monday) Low stratus finally exited all of the Eastern Rolling Plains early Sunday afternoon leaving only bands of cirrus streaming over the region, caught up in the subtropical jet ahead of a weak, elongated trough extending from the Central Plains to nrn Mexico. The upper trough axis will pass through tonight leaving zonal flow aloft for Monday with forecast x-sections showing high-level moisture waning, which should bring us mostly sunny skies.
1247 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 Forecast appears to be on track this morning with clearing skies, light winds, and slightly warmer temperatures on tap.
In addition, winds will remain gusty, which should keep lows fairly mild in the low to mid 50s. A quiet stretch of weather is favored for the start of the work week with zonal flow aloft and weak high pressure passing across the upper Mississippi River Valley.
Scattered showers continue to develop over the Atlantic waters today, and that is where the highest chance PoPs will remain through tonight. Plenty of sunshine on Monday as high pressure to our north takes hold. Dewpoints will slowly be on the increase during the day as the flow becomes more northeasterly, but it will still be a very pleasant day with afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 80s.
Low pressure working into the Southern Plains may increase winds along the lower Texas coast into Monday afternoon. The only potential fly in the ointment would be some increasing moisture and lift working west to east around the ridge across central Texas. This will result in a few more clouds across the ranchlands and hold overnight lows Monday night a few degrees warmer.
113 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 High pressure will extend across the region this week.
300 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 High pressure over the region will move off to the east tonight.
Best chance for showers through the remainder of the day will be across the central mountains, the Divide, and the northern portions of the highlands along the Wyoming border.
Weak upper ridging currently in place but that will break down quickly tonight into Monday as our flow goes from nearly zonal on Monday to west southwest by Monday Night. A weak cold front will move out of the OK/TX Pnhdl tonight and will stall across the Upper Red River Valley of NW TX into Northern Ok. Highs on Monday should be near to a few degrees warmer than today, or mostly in the lower to middle 80s which is some 10 to 15 degrees above normal for the first week of November.
Strengthening high pressure ridge over the southeastern U. Currently the elongated ridge is centered just our north and west extending from OH/IN down to MS/LA. This ridge axis will move slowly east becoming centered over the Carolinas and GA by Mon afternoon. With the ridge settling in over the area over the next few days we will see the over all flow turn from NW to S/SW.
The associated cold front will swing across southern WI midday Monday with a wind shift to the west and drier air. Temperatures will remain mild through much of the day, with highs reaching the lower to mid 60s.
The ridge, which previously shifted west, will begin to build back towards the east today and tomorrow as a low-level trough moves across the Northern Plains. As the ridge moves east, it will flatten and mid-level flow will become zonal across much of the Southern US while low-level flow becomes more southwesterly by tomorrow.
Tomorrow we will be a bit warmer compared to today.
1238 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 Weak high pressure will build into the area today and then move off to the east Monday. This high will offer dry weather with a warming trend as a southerly flow develops on the back side of the departing high.
1019 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 Forecast appears to be on track this morning with clearing skies, light winds, and slightly warmer temperatures on tap.
While guidance was a few degrees warmer tonight, we only warmed temperatures up a degree or two compared to observations this morning. Lows will range from the low 40s to mid 40s with urban areas likely a few degrees warmer.
A short wave ridge will limit showers most of tonight but as the Pacific low moves toward the coast they will increase again. On Monday southern areas will have a much better chance of rain, especially Monday afternoon, as the incoming surface cold front and upper trough extend farther south than they do today.
1135 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2023 (Rest of Today) A weak cold front draped from west/central Pennsylvania to middle Tennessee and northern Arkansas should continue weakening as it nears the forecast area this afternoon. A water vapor view aloft showed a similar trend as drier air in the lower and middle troposphere advects over the area. Clear skies should continue, with high temperatures later today warming into the low/mid 70s. With the front nearing, somewhat higher moisture values has resulted in minimum afternoon relative humidity levels higher than the past few days - expected to range from the lower 30s to around 40 percent later today.
Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 80s, although a few locations could reach the upper 80s, especially across the Concho Valley and Big Country.
Mid-cloud currently seen on satellite over northern MI expands south through the evening ahead of the next approaching low pressure system which tracks across the upper Great Lakes Monday. A relatively cool low level airmass is in place which combined with limited mixing depths this afternoon will support highs generally in the lower 50s. Given the plume of higher theta e air in the low to mid levels capped by steep mid level lapse rates (700-500mb lapse rates near 7 C/km) daytime cloud cover and scattered to numerous showers should limit the degree of mixing, likely under 2k feet.
1051 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 High pressure will extend across the region this week.
1239 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 Aviation A high pressure ridge still in control of our wx pattern will bring partly sunny skies today and seasonably mild temps in the lower to middle 50s this afternoon as winds back to the southwest and waa commences. Warm air advection showers will develop across our area late Sunday night and Monday as southerly winds strengthen to around 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts on the back side of the departing ridge and ahead of the low pressure system moving east across the northern Great Lakes region.
1132 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2023 (Today through Monday) The dry northwesterly flow aloft will eventually be replaced with a more relaxed upper flow pattern as an upper ridge begins to migrate into the region and should center to our south over the western Gulf of Mexico and/or Bay of Campeche.
Looking through the overnight hours, it is unlikely fog will redevelop this evening as the highest probabilities remain further east into North Dakota.
337 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 High pressure will extend across the region this week.
1132 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2023 (Today through Monday afternoon) Upper pattern Monday night starts with zonal flow across the country and an upper trough moving ashore the West Coast.
The duration is brief so an SPS may be a better option than a Wind Advisory and we will use social media this evening to message the high winds. The winds decrease by Monday afternoon with the passage of the low center and weakening pressure gradient along with the lack of strong CAA on the back side of the low.
Closer to the surface, high pressure looming over the area will result in a generally rain- free environment, temperatures on the warm side, and increasing humidity as winds remain out of the SE. Could see a few sprinkles make it to the surface; however, given the dryness in the lower levels, may end up as nothing more than virga. The ridge will continue moving off to the east during the short-term period, resulting in SW flow aloft and some embedded disturbances within the synoptic pattern. Kept PoPs on the low/nil end since PWAT values have been slow to rise and the environment remains on the drier side. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer with temperatures in the low to mid 60s, and a few locations dropping into the upper 50s. Areas along the coast could touch the low 70s.
300 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 Temperatures will gradually warm this week as high pressure remains centered across the Carolinas, with no chance of rain over the next several days. Not much in the way of cold advection post front, but the boundary will help shunt the coastal trough lingering just offshore farther east. High pressure builds in from the west tonight into Mon. Weak southerly flow develops once the high shifts offshore beginning a gradual warming trend that will continue into the upcoming week. A flat upper level pattern develops on Monday evening as a trough over the eastern US moves offshore.
High pressure continues to build into the region with a comfortable, dry airmass filtering in. Will see a notable wind shift by tomorrow, allowing warmer temperatures to funnel back into the area.