Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A slow moving upper low off the coast of Baja will help spread a canopy of high clouds across the region through this evening. Tonight, a deepening upper low across the Northern Plains will result in increased low level flow throughout much of the Central U. While there will likely be another round of low clouds, these should be a little higher, and will likely be pushed farther east with time as the low level jet veers. The high cloud cover will thin some through the day with any morning low clouds/fog scattering out by mid morning. /Issued 315 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2023/ /Monday Night Onward/ Zonal to slightly anticyclonic flow will be in place to start the period as North and Central Texas lie on the northern periphery of a mid level ridge centered over the western Gulf.
Given the recent cold bias that almost all models have shown since the pattern flip, it seems to be a fair bet that tomorrow will be warmer than guidance shows: up to the upper 70s in northern Oklahoma and in the 80s across much of the rest of the region.
Highs will top out in the mid to upper 70s for most locations with some areas possibly creeping into the low 80s across eastern Oklahoma. A mild night is in store across the region as southerly winds stay up overnight in response to Lee cyclogenesis occurring over the High Plains acting to tighten the surface pressure gradient over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Broad high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard is promoting north to northeasterly breezes. These breezes streaming over Mainland Florida and slightly cooler Gulf/Bay waters have generated a blanket of low level stratus clouds across the island chain. Some of the lower level clouds should slowly erode over the next few hours and perhaps allow enough sunlight to warm to our forecast highs in the lower 80s. From synopsis, an inverted trough off the Carolina coast will continue to slide east as a broad high pressure system slides east from the Great Lakes Region. This high pressure will eventually settle across the southeast U.
(Rest of Today) A weak cold front draped from west/central Pennsylvania to middle Tennessee and northern Arkansas should continue weakening as it nears the forecast area this afternoon. A water vapor view aloft showed a similar trend as drier air in the lower and middle troposphere advects over the area. Clear skies should continue, with high temperatures later today warming into the low/mid 70s. With the front nearing, somewhat higher moisture values has resulted in minimum afternoon relative humidity levels higher than the past few days - expected to range from the lower 30s to around 40 percent later today.
647 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 High pressure over the region will move off to the east tonight.
505 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) Cirrus clouds will continue to move through the upper ridge across the region tonight into Monday. But the low level flow is a little stronger with southerly flow around 20 knots at 925 mb.
(Tonight through Monday night) Cirrus clouds will continue to move through the upper ridge across the region tonight into Monday. But the low level flow is a little stronger with southerly flow around 20 knots at 925 mb.
952 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 High pressure over the region will move off to the east tonight.
We currently have a weak upper trough swinging off into the Atlantic. Monday should be another bright, mostly sunny day with temperatures near to just a couple degrees above normal, generally in the lower 80s. Dry conditions will continue Monday as high pressure becomes the dominant feature.
705 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 Temperatures will gradually warm this week as high pressure remains centered across the Carolinas, with no chance of rain over the next several days. Not much in the way of cold advection post front, but the boundary will help shunt the coastal trough lingering just offshore farther east. High pressure builds in from the west tonight into Mon. Weak southerly flow develops once the high shifts offshore beginning a gradual warming trend that will continue into the upcoming week. A flat upper level pattern develops on Monday evening as a trough over the eastern US moves offshore.
940 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 Temperatures will gradually warm this week as high pressure remains centered across the Carolinas, with no chance of rain over the next several days. Not much in the way of cold advection post front, but the boundary will help shunt the coastal trough lingering just offshore farther east. High pressure builds in from the west tonight into Mon. Weak southerly flow develops once the high shifts offshore beginning a gradual warming trend that will continue into the upcoming week. A flat upper level pattern develops on Monday evening as a trough over the eastern US moves offshore.
407 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 Dry high pressure will continue over the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia through most of the week.
No threat for freezing rain. - Cooler on Monday, but still near to above normal temperatures. Most of this has been virga/sprinkles as soundings are still rather dry in the low levels. Cooler air follows the passing front tonight, but there is a reinforcing shot of cooler air that drops south with another cold front on Monday. Even with the cooler temps on Monday, readings look to still be near to above normal for this time of year.
926 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 High pressure will extend across the region this week.
This along with the lateness of the day may hinder temperatures from reaching their forecasted high in the lower 80s. Northerly breezes are surprisingly gentle across marine observation platforms due Mainland Florida shielding us from flow generated by a broad high pressure establishing itself along the Eastern Seaboard. However, a trough along its east has started to promote freshening breezes along Mainland Florida's east coast. Tonight, the trough will pivot southeast into the western North Atlantic. Starting tomorrow, ridging will build and consolidate itself over North Florida after being trapped by a strong low pressure system barreling into the Great Lakes region.
Monday afternoon, temperatures should be in the same ballpark as long as the high clouds don't interfere.
621 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 Dry high pressure will continue over the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia through most of the week.
320 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2023 Tonight and Tomorrow: Only minor, slow changes day over day have been observed as we close out this weekend and each day has been a little less dry and a little warmer since our freeze early this week. High clouds increase heading into Monday as moisture aloft streams around the upper ridge overhead. With our somewhat warmer start in the morning and increasing heights aloft allow us to warm effectively into the afternoon and highs top out in the lower to middle 80s F.
529 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2023 (This evening through Monday) Low stratus finally exited all of the Eastern Rolling Plains early Sunday afternoon leaving only bands of cirrus streaming over the region, caught up in the subtropical jet ahead of a weak, elongated trough extending from the Central Plains to nrn Mexico. The upper trough axis will pass through tonight leaving zonal flow aloft for Monday with forecast x-sections showing high-level moisture waning, which should bring us mostly sunny skies.
138 PM PST Sun Nov 5 2023 Today is the last of the very warm days west of the mountains, as the ridge aloft weakens ahead of an incoming trough.
627 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 High pressure will extend across the region this week.
However, moist westerly flow in the mid levels may continue to produce some snow over the higher elevations of the Absaroka/Beartooths overnight and into Monday. Monday starts out with a low amplitude ridge and generally seasonal temps with some persistent orographic snow possible over the higher elevations. This will increase snow in the high country and bring scattered showers over the lower elevations again. Orographic snow will then persist at times in the high country Monday night while the showers exit to the east/northeast. The persistent moist flow in the high country may result in 4-7 inches of accumulation through Monday night, with a few locations on the west facing peaks up to 10 inches.
556 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2023 Tonight and Tomorrow: Only minor, slow changes day over day have been observed as we close out this weekend and each day has been a little less dry and a little warmer since our freeze early this week. High clouds increase heading into Monday as moisture aloft streams around the upper ridge overhead. With our somewhat warmer start in the morning and increasing heights aloft allow us to warm effectively into the afternoon and highs top out in the lower to middle 80s F.
1154 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2023 Tonight and Tomorrow: Only minor, slow changes day over day have been observed as we close out this weekend and each day has been a little less dry and a little warmer since our freeze early this week. High clouds increase heading into Monday as moisture aloft streams around the upper ridge overhead. With our somewhat warmer start in the morning and increasing heights aloft allow us to warm effectively into the afternoon and highs top out in the lower to middle 80s F.
324 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure will extend across the region this week.
1116 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) Cirrus clouds will continue to move through the upper ridge across the region tonight into Monday. But the low level flow is a little stronger with southerly flow around 20 knots at 925 mb.
A bit cooler to the north of the trough as drier air will allow overnight temps to drop down into the 40s.
Meanwhile, sfc ridging remains anchored over the Gulf States into the Lower MS Valley, with enough of a pressure gradient to maintain light SSE winds over E TX and SW AR. These in tandem will result in milder temps tonight that just 24 hrs ago, and is already evident as the 03Z temps are running some 3-8 degrees warmer than this time last night. The lower cigs that should develop late tonight should linger through much of the morning Monday, before eventually scattering out by midday/during the afternoon.
Today through Tuesday: Split flow continues to be set up across the area, with the southerly jet across the Texas keeping moisture to the south while the jet just north of the area keeps the cooler air to the north. Expect temperatures to cool to the mid-to- upper 40s with a weak cold front pushing through.
Discussion: Zonal flow aloft continues with ridging across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some low RH values will be possible again today with most locations in the low to mid 30s and localized areas with min RH values in the mid 20s. High pressure will keep us mostly clear and dry again tonight.
Meanwhile, sfc ridging remains anchored over the Gulf States into the Lower MS Valley, with enough of a pressure gradient to maintain light SSE winds over E TX and SW AR. These in tandem will result in milder temps tonight that just 24 hrs ago, and is already evident as the 03Z temps are running some 3-8 degrees warmer than this time last night. Aside from the diminishing cirrus over Deep E TX/NCntrl LA by late afternoon, SKC is expected over much of the area during the evening before the lower cigs develop just beyond the end of the 06Z TAF period.
244 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 Dry high pressure will continue over the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia through most of the week.
No threat for freezing rain. - Cooler on Monday, but still near to above normal temperatures. Most of this has been virga/sprinkles as soundings are still rather dry in the low levels. Cooler air follows the passing front tonight, but there is a reinforcing shot of cooler air that drops south with another cold front on Monday. Even with the cooler temps on Monday, readings look to still be near to above normal for this time of year. Tuesday morning starts out with an upper level ridge which is slowly pushed east by a trough and low pressure system from the north.
Currently - A surface pressure ridge squeezed into the Atlantic states and stretches into the Gulf of Mexico is producing a moderate to fresh north to northeasterly synoptic flow across the Keys. A bit of this gradient and backed flow can be explained by broad troughing over and east of the Bahamas. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate the far eastern and southeastern United States through the overnight period. Issued at 1030 EST Sun Nov 5 2023 A ridge across the southeastern United States and troughing over and east of the Bahamas will maintain moderate to fresh north to northeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Otherwise, expect warming temperatures as upper ridging remains over the Gulf and warm southwesterly flow increases closer to the sfc.
1243 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure will cover much of the eastern United States today, while a low pressure system crosses the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, leaving a cold front draped across the Ohio Valley by Tuesday.
205 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure over the area will shift offshore Tuesday, resulting in a return southwesterly flow taking over for the middle to latter part of the week.
A mid-level ridge will remain over Deep South Texas with a trough beginning to dig into the Pacific northwest.
1048 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 Dry high pressure will continue over the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia through most of the week.
115 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 Temperatures will gradually warm this week as high pressure remains centered across the Carolinas, with no chance of rain over the next several days. Not much in the way of cold advection post front, but the boundary will help shunt the coastal trough lingering just offshore farther east. High pressure builds in from the west tonight into Mon. Weak southerly flow develops once the high shifts offshore beginning a gradual warming trend that will continue into the upcoming week. A flat upper level pattern develops on Monday evening as a trough over the eastern US moves offshore.
101 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure over the region will move off to the east tonight.
357 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure over the area will shift offshore Tuesday, resulting in a return southwesterly flow taking over for the middle to latter part of the week.
1152 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 High pressure will extend across the region this week.
An U/L ridge over the Gulf of Mexico extends across the Florida peninsula. during the next several days with a positively tilted trough developing over the intermountain west by mid week. This will pump up the ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida with temperatures across the forecast area increasing above climatic normals due to the strengthening large scale subsidence over the region.
1205 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure over the area through Monday will shift offshore Tuesday, resulting in a return southwesterly flow taking over for the middle to latter part of the week.
-Seasonally warm temperatures will prevail through Tuesday, with cooler (more seasonal) temperatures returning mid-week. As always, we encourage you to be mindful with any activity that could cause a spark! As alluded to in the previous discussion, will see a quick moving sfc cold front dive southeastward across our area overnight, causing winds to become more west/northwesterly. Expect largely dry conditions to prevail throughout the upcoming week, with the exception being Tuesday night as a broad upper level trough swings across the Northern Plains. In regard to temperatures, look for afternoon highs to be cooler, yet still above seasonal norms Monday and Tuesday as temperatures rise into the mid 50s to lower 60s. A cold front is moving through the region, swinging winds to become out of the west-northwest.
Sfc cyclone and attendent cold front will remain well north of CWA leaving us in a bit of a stagnant pattern at the surface with the exception of some southerly turn to the winds that will allow for some moisture to slowly return. Highs will be in the mid 70s to close to 80 down in SE central GA today and close to 80 or in the lower 80s across the CWA tomorrow, which will be approaching record highs within 2 to 3 degrees at numerous climate sites.
1227 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 Dry high pressure will continue over the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia through most of the week.
The large upper level low is still approaching from the west, and intermittent rain will be common over most of the area through Tuesday. Very mild wx today under passing short wave upper ridge but scattered showers were still forming in eastern OR and in the Boise Mountains this afternoon. Upper low in the Pacific 45/135 now moving east and showers will increase in eastern Oregon later tonight and western Idaho overnight. Valley rain and mountain snow showers will decrease Monday night through Tuesday as the upper trough comes in, but a 30 to 50 percent chance of showers will continue Tuesday night, best chances in northern zones.
(Today) Very warm temperatures continue today under zonal flow aloft and downsloping SW flow in the lower levels.
(Today through Tuesday) To begin the week, upper level ridging continues to build in over Southeastern US as a body of high pressure shifts into and strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico. With a northeasterly flow, today will be a very pleasant and mostly sunny day with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 60s near Lake O and across the interior while staying in the upper 60s/low 70s along the far east coast.
120 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure will cover much of the eastern United States today, while a low pressure system crosses the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, leaving a cold front draped across the Ohio Valley by Tuesday.
These clouds will be pushed east today as an upper ridge slides across the state. Behind the ridge, a frontal system will lift northeast bringing the potential for light rain overnight and into Tuesday morning. Overall the highest probability is for liquid precipitation, but temperatures could support freezing rain briefly mainly near the Canadian border on Tuesday morning. Forecast for the remainder of the week will features a ridge building to the west, with northwest flow keeping temperatures near normal with mostly dry conditions.
255 AM MST Mon Nov 6 2023 Satellite imagery this morning shows a low amplitude ridge building in over the area. This will increase snow chances (high 60-80% chance) in the western mountains above 8000 ft and bring isolated to scattered rain showers (low 15-40% chance) over the lower elevations, with the best chance for rain remaining west and north of Billings. The lower elevations outside of the foothills look to remain dry Tuesday, with temperatures warming back into the 50s.
A general trough of low pressure across the Pacific northwest will bring a series of disturbances through the region to start the week. As the trough traverses the region tonight into Tuesday, lowering snow levels are anticipated to around 4500 feet. This will bring accumulating snow to the higher terrain and mountain passes, including Lolo, Lookout, Marias and Lost Trail.
311 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 Key Message: * Breezy with temperatures about 15 to 20 degrees above normal Partly to mostly cloudy skies were common across the area early this morning as a warm front was lifting through the area and a cold front was approaching from the west. Today, the cold front will slowly traverse the area. Normal highs are in the low to mid 50s.
614 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure will extend across the region this week.
- A cold front is anticipated to bring temps back to normal values late week. Sfc winds shift to the northeast at 10 mph or less this afternoon, and despite the insulating high clouds, lack of CAA in vicinity of the front results in another warm afternoon in the low to middle 70s. Decent moisture transport in the low levels overnight may develop an area of fog/stratus around sunrise Tuesday.
556 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure will cover much of the eastern United States today, while a low pressure system crosses the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, leaving a cold front draped across the Ohio Valley by Tuesday.
631 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 (Today through Tuesday) To begin the week, upper level ridging continues to build in over Southeastern US as a body of high pressure shifts into and strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico. With a northeasterly flow, today will be a very pleasant and mostly sunny day with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 60s near Lake O and across the interior while staying in the upper 60s/low 70s along the far east coast.
605 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure over the area will shift offshore Tuesday, resulting in a return southwesterly flow taking over for the middle to latter part of the week.
At the surface, a trough will slowly move into the eastern Texas Panhandle back into the South Plains.
543 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 Dry high pressure will continue over the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia through most of the week.
635 AM PST Mon Nov 6 2023 Areas of dense fog over coastal areas this morning will dissipate by mid morning, leaving fair and cooler weather across the region.
409 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through midweek with plenty of sunshine as high pressure dominates over the Southeast.
Sfc cyclone and attendant cold front will remain well north of CWA leaving us in a bit of a stagnant pattern at the surface with the exception of some southerly turn to the winds that will allow for some moisture to slowly return. Highs will be in the mid 70s to close to 80 down in SE central GA today and close to 80 or in the lower 80s across the CWA tomorrow, which will be approaching record highs within 2 to 3 degrees at numerous climate sites.
640 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through midweek with plenty of sunshine as high pressure dominates over the Southeast.
340 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 (Issued 340 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2023) Today through Tuesday: Showers are likely early this morning as low pressure slides by across northern Wisconsin, eventually dragging a cold front through the area later today. Skies are still expected to largely clear out later this morning into the afternoon before the cooler airmass begins to move in. Thus still expecting mild high temps today into the low to mid 60s.
518 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) We'll remain under zonal flow aloft today with an upper trough moving into the Great Lakes region, and clouds should clear to give us a sunny afternoon. This will continue into the overnight hours where despite clear skies and light winds, low temperatures will remain above normal in the low to mid 50s.
Abundant high clouds moving in from the W/SW (via the west/southwesterly flow aloft) will prevail across the region with light onshore winds persisting at the lower-levels. Otherwise, above normal temperatures will continue as highs range from the lower to mid 80s today and tomorrow (upper 70s along the beaches).
535 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 Today: Mid-level ridge axis is centered over the northern Gulf Coast near the TX/LA border & will build E-SE & flatten into the aftn. Warm thermal profiles will support continued moderating highs some 5-10 degrees above normal in the low 80s. This will keep southerly return flow & lows some 5-10 degrees above normal in the low 50s east to mid-upper 50s northwest of the Natchez Trace.
At the surface, C AL is still under the overall influence of a ridge center over ERN Conus. The NRN part of the ridge will push EWD into the Atlantic as a frontal system moves across the Great Lakes leaving the SRN part of the ridge lingering a little longer across the SE US.
521 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 (Today) Very warm temperatures continue today under zonal flow aloft and downsloping SW flow in the lower levels.
Winds are forecasted to shift to be more northwesterly as a broad area of low pressure moves further east and southeast with speeds around 5 to 10 mph.