Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mid-level ridge axis will briefly move over the state today which will limit rain chances and provide mostly dry conditions through tonight. As the trough makes additional progress eastward, additional rain and thunderstorms are expected to develop and become widespread across the state from Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Otherwise, the backdoor cold front will drop south across the area later this morning. These cloudy conditions is expected to result in a cooler today compared to yesterday, coolest near Lake Michigan. Winds should relax tonight, especially across south-central Wisconsin, as high pressure begins to build into the region.
205 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Today will be considerably warmer than yesterday. An attendant cold front and more modest ascent on its western flanks will pass through central Indiana late afternoon through evening. The front will clear all of central Indiana by late evening bringing a cooler and drier continental air mass overnight. We should be about 5-8 degrees cooler Friday in the post frontal environment, with some risk of smoke/haze given the northwesterly flow. The synoptic-scale pattern going into the weekend will continue to feature split flow and somewhat chaotic movement of various troughs and ridges, leading to a relatively low predictability scenario.
A backdoor cold front will sag southwest Thursday and bring somewhat cooler air into central MN and WI. ridge for a couple days and should support diurnal convection.
(Today through Friday) A persistent and slowly amplifying upper level ridge is centered across Mexico and will build northward through tomorrow. Highs in the short-term will range from the lower 90s along the coast to 108 degrees out west.
Early this morning, an upper level trough was located over the Northern Rockies and high plains, with several embedded impulses evident on water vapor imagery rounding the base of the rotation. As the low does gradually make its way east through the day, precipitation chances will follow, as showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage after 18Z with the development of modest instability. Skies should be partly to mostly cloudy under this southwest flow with cooler temperatures at the surface. A few chances for light showers persist this weekend as the previous circulation exits through the Northern Plains, while to the west a much deeper Pacific trough begins to develop.
Cold front looks to be situated across eastern Montana. 700mb ridge axis has shifted east into the Dakotas and central Nebraska. an upper vort trough moves across the front that will aid in convective development. Not much movement of the upper trough through much of the day Friday.
Quasi- zonal U/L flow will persist today along the northern Gulf coast and Florida peninsula, however an U/L trough will gradually develop tonight and Friday over the southeast U.
(Through Tonight) At the surface the region remains in a persistent pattern with high pressure to the south southeast, and a frontal zone over the southeastern US. Aloft, the region is in the base of a 500mb trough.
1135 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Weak high pressure will maintain dry weather through most of Thursday. A crossing cold front will return shower and possible thunderstorm chances to the region Thursday night and Friday. Dry weather is expected for the weekend under high pressure. Patchy mid level clouds were observed for areas near FKL and DUJ, which are on the western periphery of a NE CONUS upper low. The quick-hitting ridge will persist for the daytime hours on Thursday, keeping skies mostly clear through the afternoon with perhaps a bit of upper level smoke streaming in from the northwest.
Expecting a very similar forecast today and Friday to yesterday, perhaps a degree warmer across the board as the ridge builds on top of Deep South Texas. Southeasterly winds this afternoon may gust at times to 30 mph, especially across the lower to mid RGV. Rip and longshore currents along the lower Texas coast will continue to be life-threatening.
Ahead of feature, a warm front will lift north with a very unstable air- mass developing across western/central Oklahoma extending into far southeast Oklahoma along and south of boundary.
The showers and storms should be moving east and out of the forecast area by this evening with cooler and drier air on north flow as advancing high pressure builds in behind the departing low.
A weak surface cold front will pass through the area tonight, but temperatures are expected to remain mild in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Friday will be slightly cooler as the clouds from the previous night will delay solar warming.
The associated surface cold front is well ahead of the mid level feature, entering central WI at this hour. At this point, there is no evidence that current conditions will change all that much until the cold front enters from the north. North winds will increase Thursday behind the cold front and air quality should improve through the morning and certainly by afternoon. A backdoor cold front will sweep across the area Thursday.
While winds will primarily stay out of the east and southeast, winds will shift out of the north with the passage of the cold front over north central SD during the afternoon hours. The area of low pressure is expected to slowly slide across eastern South Dakota Friday, expanding the chance of showers and thunderstorms east of the James River Friday afternoon. Cooler air shifting in behind the cold front and plenty of clouds should keep high temperatures Friday a few degrees lower than what we've experiences as of late.
130 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 An upper level low and associated cold front pivots through the region overnight, before weak high pressure briefly builds in on Thursday.
437 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 High pressure moves off to the east with a cold front approaching from the north, which will increase chances for showers and storms through tonight.
A closed low pressure system spinning over the southern Alberta-Saskatchewan border is quite prominent on water vapor satellite imagery early this morning.
An upper level ridge will begin making its way over the region Thursday, with afternoon highs climbing into the middle 80s.
1223 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) A weak cold front brought fog and cooler temperatures temporarily to the northern Permian Basin. The ridge continues to strengthen on Thursday.
334 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Weak high pressure will maintain dry weather through most of today. A crossing cold front will return shower and thunderstorm chances to the region by this evening, and continuing Friday. Dry weather is expected for the weekend under high pressure. Otherwise, dry weather is expected for much of the day as weak high pressure moves across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday, though coverage across much of the area should be more scattered as the trough axis shifts eastward. The upper trough is progged to become a closed low across the NE CONUS over the weekend.
Meanwhile, another cold front will move southeast from the Great Lakes and pass across the Mid-Atlantic Region Friday, resulting in more scattered precipitation.
Clouds associated with an upper level low to the east are passing through this morning from roughly north to south.
Satellite imagery also shows clouds are approaching from the west associated with a trough that will pass through the area today. The trough, combined with the attendant cold front, will bring precipitation chances to eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota today and Friday. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the cold front will do too much in terms of our temperatures as of now.
This will allow a closed area of low pressure to move southeast from the central and northern Plains southeast into the Tennessee River Valley. High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep much of the precipitation west and southwest of the area.
A warming trend is in store for the end of this week and into the weekend as ridging starts to slowly build over the region. Highs today and Thursday across the lower deserts will range from the upper 90s to the low 100s. By the end of this week, global ensembles show this persistent troughing pattern beginning to break down as ridging starts to build over the region. This will allow temperatures to climb to near normal levels by Friday, with highs currently forecasted in the lower to mid 100s for the lower deserts. The main impacts with this system will be breezy to windy conditions for portions of south-central Arizona, especially the higher terrain areas east of Phoenix. By this weekend, H5 heights will continue to increase as the previously mentioned ridging pattern continues to set in over the Desert Southwest.
As a result, temperatures are trending a few degrees cooler especially in the CSRA and south/central Midlands. Friday and Friday night: An upper air trough is forecast to move southward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, then begin to close off into an upper low. As the trough digs south, it is expected to shift the lingering surface front further south and bring in some drier air to the region.
428 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 After patchy morning fog, showers and a few storms with gusty winds are possible this afternoon and early tonight as an upper level system and associated cold front move south across the Upper Great Lakes into the forecast area.
131 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 An upper level low and associated cold front pivots through the region overnight, before weak high pressure briefly builds in on Thursday.
328 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 A series of upper level low pressure systems will meander over New England through this weekend, bringing continued cloudy and showery conditions at times. A weak and slow moving low pressure center gradually moves through New England today, bringing another day of showers and a few thunderstorms. This will be short lived however, as another weak area of low pressure moves in from the southwest during the afternoon and evening hours. A more spring-like blocked up pattern continues through this weekend with blocking continuing in the North Atlantic while upper level low pressure meanders above northern New England through at least this weekend.
A trough across Idaho will slowly move eastward toward Wyoming today. Drier air should begin to punch into the area from southwest to northeast starting Friday morning following the trough passage, shutting off the heavier rain through the day.
149 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023 A cold front has pushed through all but the far southeast part of the forecast area this morning.
212 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023 High pressure system moves into the area today within a dry slot that will be to the south of an upper low moving through the Canadian Prairies. A lingering shower is possible this morning in Wibaux County as the cold front moves to the east. WNW winds will be strong enough behind the cold front today that a Lake Wind Advisory will be in effect for Fort Peck Lake.
1118 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 (Tonight) Current temperatures across the local area are mainly in the lower 70s; however, a few spots especially near Fort Payne have dropped into the upper 60s this evening according to surface observations. Lastly, low temperatures will likely dip into the lower to mid 60s late tonight into early Thursday morning.
1239 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Upper air analysis this afternoon depicts a sub-tropical ridge over northern Mexico and into the State of Texas, with the CWA positioned along the northern periphery of this ridge.
The one exception is over northeast Utah where moisture advection has been the strongest and influence of the upper trough is providing more storm organization. Moderate to heavy rainfall rates are expected in this area and CAMs have been consistent in targeting this area for some of the highest QPF amounts across the CWA through this evening. then the arrival of the northern stream trough axis into northern Utah provides additional ascent during the pre-dawn hours. This northern trough will be the main focus going into Thursday as the main energy swings through the base.
Issued by National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1208 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) A persistent and slowly amplifying upper level ridge centered across Mexico to the south and the very anomalous 700 to 850 mb temperatures will continue to promote very hot and rain free conditions across the region through the short term period. For the Rio Grande Plains, the dew points are currently in the low to mid 70s but looks to mix out into the mid to upper 60s late in the day. The dew points out west will rebound overnight into the low to mid 70s before they mix out into the low to mid 60s on Thursday.
(Today through Friday) While a rather complex synoptic pattern continues over much of the E CONUS, SoFlo remains under the influence of an expanding mid level ridge across the eastern half of the GOMEX and a deep ridge over the western Atlantic. But the headline for the next couple of days will be the ongoing period of hot conditions due to less cloud coverage and the SW flow keeping warm air at the low levels. Afternoon highs are expected to rise into the low-mid 90s across much of the Atlantic metro areas, and good chances of experiencing upper 90s in some interior locations.
Temperatures were in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints right around 76-77. High pressure over the western North Atlantic had a discernable ridge thorugh the northwest Bahamas and south peninsular Florida, while aloft two mid level highs with greater than 591 Dm heights were centered north of the Leeward Islands and over northeast Mexico/western Gulf. Broad sagging of the mid/upper heights appears to be confined to 500 mb and above with ridging noted below over the Keys/South Florida area. trough with the southern axis very near or over the Florida Peninsula. This pushes the narrow ridge south and east with the upper ridging near 25 North latitude remaining fractured with anticyclonic cells well west and east of the Keys.
936 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 High pressure moves off to the east with a cold front approaching from the north, which will increase chances for showers and storms through tonight.
Otherwise, the fairly persistent cloud cover will keep high temperatures cooler with temps peaking in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Aloft the main upper level low has moved off the northeast coast and a secondary trof behind it is descending over the Great Lakes region with ridging to the west over the Plains and upper Midwest. Friday a backdoor cold front will move through the area but won't really have any impacts as it will be another hot day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
619 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 (Today and tonight) Very hot and dry conditions are expected today across parts of the Concho Valley, Northern Edwards Plateau, and Northwest Hill Country today as high pressure and zonal flow aloft remain in place across West Central TX, there will be much less cloud cover to start the day today in comparison to previous days.
Isolated to scattered convection should develop along an incoming cold front near and just northwest of the US 24 btw 18-21z, shifting south toward Portland IN-Lima OH btw 21-00z. Patchy morning radiation fog will lift shortly after daybreak as the lower atmosphere mixes out.
An additional area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to progress from west to east late this afternoon into the overnight with the approach of a northern stream trough. Kinematics, especially across Ohio northwest of our forecast area will be sufficiently strong for updraft organization with deep layer shear increasing from 35 to 40KT with approach of the aforementioned trough. A cold front exits south of the area early Friday morning, while an upper level trough/low digs south bringing ripples of vorticity through Friday night. Available low level moisture, diurnal heating and forcing from the aforementioned trough/low will result in chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Another cold front pushes all moisture east with showers and storms decreasing in intensity and coverage from west to east Friday afternoon and evening.
702 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 A series of upper level low pressure systems will meander over New England through this weekend, bringing continued cloudy and showery conditions at times. Mostly focused on increasing POPs with this update through the morning as showers continue to develop with the upper level low center. A weak and slow moving low pressure center gradually moves through New England today, bringing another day of showers and a few thunderstorms. This will be short lived however, as another weak area of low pressure moves in from the southwest during the afternoon and evening hours. A more spring-like blocked up pattern continues through this weekend with blocking continuing in the North Atlantic while upper level low pressure meanders above northern New England through at least this weekend.
A weak trough will keep moisture in place over far northern Arizona again today.
623 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 A series of upper level low pressure systems will meander over New England through this weekend, bringing continued cloudy and showery conditions at times. A weak and slow moving low pressure center gradually moves through New England today, bringing another day of showers and a few thunderstorms. This will be short lived however, as another weak area of low pressure moves in from the southwest during the afternoon and evening hours. A more spring-like blocked up pattern continues through this weekend with blocking continuing in the North Atlantic while upper level low pressure meanders above northern New England through at least this weekend.
543 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 After patchy morning fog, showers and a few storms with gusty winds are possible this afternoon and early tonight as an upper level system and associated cold front move south across the Upper Great Lakes into the forecast area.
The short wave will arrive over the southeast CWA during peak heating and when combined with the cooler temps aloft, will create SBCAPE values around 1500 j/kg. The showers and storms should be moving east and out of the forecast area by this evening with cooler and drier air on north flow as advancing high pressure builds in behind the departing low.
"Troughiness" aloft continues across the southeast U.
731 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 (Today through Friday) While a rather complex synoptic pattern continues over much of the E CONUS, SoFlo remains under the influence of an expanding mid level ridge across the eastern half of the GOMEX and a deep ridge over the western Atlantic. But the headline for the next couple of days will be the ongoing period of hot conditions due to less cloud coverage and the SW flow keeping warm air at the low levels. Afternoon highs are expected to rise into the low-mid 90s across much of the Atlantic metro areas, and good chances of experiencing upper 90s in some interior locations.
Temperatures and sky cover today are a bit of a wildcard owing to both the cold front's progression and the potential for a significant increase in smoke (primarily mid-level), with possible reductions in insolation today.
927 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Weak high pressure will maintain dry weather through most of today. A crossing cold front will return shower and thunderstorm chances to the region by this evening, and continuing Friday. Dry weather is expected for the weekend under high pressure. Dry weather is expected for much of the day as weak high pressure moves across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday, though coverage across much of the area should be more scattered as the trough axis shifts eastward. The upper trough is progged to become a closed low across the NE CONUS over the weekend.
634 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 (Today through Friday) A persistent and slowly amplifying upper level ridge is centered across Mexico and will build northward through tomorrow. Highs in the short-term will range from the lower 90s along the coast to 108 degrees out west.
Light anticyclonic flow persists aloft with ridging building in along with drier air oozing off of Cuba in from the south keeping rain chances near nil today. A heat advisory is in effect for all of the Florida Keys as the heat index values are forecast to reach somewhere between 108 and 112 due to highs in the lower 90s combined with dewpoints approaching near 80. From synopsis, ridging over the northwest Bahamas and south Florida will result in light to gentle southerly breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters today.
540 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Weak high pressure will maintain dry weather through most of today. A crossing cold front will return shower and thunderstorm chances to the region by this evening, and continuing Friday. Dry weather is expected for the weekend under high pressure. Otherwise, dry weather is expected for much of the day as weak high pressure moves across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday, though coverage across much of the area should be more scattered as the trough axis shifts eastward. The upper trough is progged to become a closed low across the NE CONUS over the weekend.
(Today and tonight) Very hot and dry conditions are expected today across parts of the Concho Valley, Northern Edwards Plateau, and Northwest Hill Country today as high pressure and zonal flow aloft remain in place across West Central TX, there will be much less cloud cover to start the day today in comparison to previous days.
Skies are clear under upper level cyclonic flow as a low pressure trough continues moving eastward. Temperatures across the east side are expected to drop to or below freezing in parts of the east side, and Frost Advisories are in place for parts of Klamath, Lake, and Modoc counties early this morning.
723 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Weak high pressure will maintain dry weather through most of today. A crossing cold front will return shower and thunderstorm chances to the region by this evening, and continuing Friday. Dry weather is expected for the weekend under high pressure. Otherwise, dry weather is expected for much of the day as weak high pressure moves across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday, though coverage across much of the area should be more scattered as the trough axis shifts eastward. The upper trough is progged to become a closed low across the NE CONUS over the weekend.
640 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 High pressure moves off to the east with a cold front approaching from the north, which will increase chances for showers and storms through tonight.
Into the first half of the weekend, the dig of the long wave trof from the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley will result in a wedged pattern for us, between it and upper ridging to our west. The low level flow ultimately shifts back to the north and northeast, and this drives lower dew points back down/into the FA, esp in our northeast.
A weak back door cold front will move across the forecast area this evening bringing northeast winds from the Great Lakes. The front will bring cooler temperatures with lows tonight ranging from the upper 40s in far nw IL to the lower 60s in northeast MO.
155 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 High pressure moves off to the east with a cold front approaching from the north, which will increase chances for showers and storms through tonight.
An area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary remains over western South Dakota with little advancement eastward today. The highest potential based on the HREF is over north-central South Dakota where locally heavy rainfall will be possible due to slow moving storms and training.