Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Monday Night) Quiet, dry, and cooler than normal weather conditions will continue across the Ark-La-Tex region in the next 36 hours. This is due to surface ridging that will transit the Great Plains and very gradually approach the Mississippi River by Monday, passing across the area to deliver the coldest conditions of the season. This will allow clear skies and slackened winds for maximized radiational cooling by tomorrow night with minimums in the low to mid 40s, much colder than normal for this time of the year.
A building upper ridge will continue to promote additional warming today with highs well into the 70s this afternoon.
1121 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Key Messages: 1) After a very cold morning, warmer today with near seasonal temperatures. An upper ridge of high pressure over the Desert SW will strengthen through the short term, providing for dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures. Freezing temperatures for portions of the plains this morning are expected to start warming back up by 9 AM, with highs in the 60s for most locations by this afternoon. A cold and dry night tonight under clear skies should mean another round of freezing temps for portions of the plains, especially farther east along the KS border.
A cool night is in store as overnight lows bottom out in the lower 40s.
A cold front continues to push south through our southern zones this afternoon, with the cooler and drier air in place back behind the front.
Temperatures will remain much below normal through the short term with troughing across the region. NAEFS analyzed heights are in the lowest percentile of climatology which will result in max temperatures on Monday around 15 to 20 degrees below normal.
As the eastern Pacific trough deepens and approaches the west coast, we anticipate a mild southwesterly flow aloft in north-central Idaho and western Montana on Monday. Models are in strong consensus regarding the trough's progression into the Pacific Northwest on Monday, coinciding with an advancing cold front.
Will keep them in the low chance category as well given their history. A smaller upper trough rotating through the large trough across the eastern USA will move through later this evening and overnight. The smaller upper trough will be south of central Indiana before 12Z Monday.
150 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Current water vapor and upper air analysis shows upper ridging over the western CONUS, while trough sits over the great lakes and New England region.
The forecast remains cool and dry as a rather large longwave upper trough slowly moves into the eastern US.
The breaks in the cloud cover may be a little more widespread tonight, which could allow temperatures to be cooler than is currently forecast. The upper troughing pattern will drift eastward Monday with cyclonic flow across the area at the surface.
Details: As of early this afternoon a cold front is beginning to push through northern portions of the area, with the low-lvl front progged to push through southern portions of the area by early this evening. The upper-lvl support for the front is lagging well north of the low-lvl boundary so expect a mostly dry frontal passage. The advection of cooler drier air (i. Drier air continues to filter in during the day on Monday with dewpoints mixing out into the upper 50s and lower 60s, and PWATs likely decreasing to under an inch by the end of the day (the lowest values since March).
All of this is brought to you by an upper level low situated over the mid-Mississippi Valley, digging into the mid-south. In fact, some better rain showers might dampen things even more west of I-65 through sunset due to direct impact of this upper low passing over the area.
102 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 A compact upper low will open up as it treks southeast into southeast Missouri by daybreak and to the Purchase Area by midday.
1257 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 GOES-16 satellite trends show a weak upper level low over Kentucky and embedded within a larger upper level trough that encompasses the Eastern Untied States. The next cold front will bring a chance of showers to the Mid-South by the end of the week.
1205 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (Today through Monday) Upper level troughing deepens over the eastern states while upper level ridging builds over the western states resulting in a dry northwesterly flow aloft.
High pressure will build in towards midweek which will allow temperatures to warm closer to normal. The region remains trapped between a broad low pressure off the New England coast and high pressure descending into the Great Plains. A weak low-level trough will aid in convergence across this particular region, which is conveniently downwind from Lake Erie (higher theta- e). Monday night, high pressure gradually moves in from the west, however, low-level moisture remains trapped over the area.
Otherwise, we'll just be watching an upper level ridge build eastward into the region and likewise, warm air advecting into our CWA. The airmass is also quite dry leading up to the next low pressure system mid week. KEY MESSAGES: - Confidence increasing on a quick system midweek that could produce isolated to scattered (15-45%) rain showers along with gusty winds behind the cold front.
This is the last day of colder than normal air over the panhandles which will cause a final round of near or at freezing lows for Monday morning. A ridge is building across the region starting today which will kick off a warming trend. These warmer temperatures will also nix the chances for freeze and frost going into Monday night.
1120 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 A strengthening ridge of high pressure will remain centered over the Desert Southwest through the short term period. Normally this would be the perfect setup for widespread clear skies but high- based moisture embedded in the flow will lead to a "dirty ridge" with cirrus clouds streaming overhead into Monday morning. Regardless, dry weather will dominate the region through Monday with light, terrain-driven winds apart from localized gusts to 20 mph or so over the higher valleys and mountains down south. Temperatures will be on the rise through the period as the ridge builds overhead. Monday will be even warmer with highs trending 4 to 8 degrees above the seasonal norm for mid October.
334 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 A pool of deep layer moisture now moving south-southwestward across Lake Huron and NE Lower Mi is of Atlantic origin and has pivoted around the ern Canadian upper low. As the low level flow shifts a little more toward the NNE this evening, widespread lake enhanced rain will advance inland and affect the thumb and Port Huron regions. Mid level ridging and associated high pressure building across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes on Monday will sustain persistent northerly flow across Se Mi. While the northerly flow may offer some breaks in the clouds, the increasing depth of the low level inversion with residual moisture below the inversion will maintain an abundance of clouds through the day and will hold afternoon highs in the 50s.
112 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 A ridge of high pressure will build over the western U. Ridge will slide E of the forecast area Mon. night and a trough will approach from the W.
1200 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (Today and tonight) Our area will have northwest flow aloft today and tonight, with an upper ridge extending from the Desert Southwest north to the Intermountain West, and a deep upper trough over the eastern part of the country. With indications of a reinforcement of cooler air today, temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday. Overnight lows will be mostly in the lower 40s, and may even have a few upper 30s in the most favored low-lying areas.
High pressure remains firmly in control across the desert southwest up to the Canadian border with the only cloud cover found over WA State and far northern ID and MT. A trough will come ashore across the West Coast tomorrow afternoon but all support stays well to our north so, outside of some clouds, look for more sunny skies and warm temps tomorrow.
1048 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 GOES-16 satellite trends show a weak upper level low over Kentucky and embedded within a larger upper level trough that encompasses the Eastern Untied States. The next cold front will bring a chance of showers to the Mid-South by the end of the week.
Temperatures through the short term will be on the cooler side with afternoon high temperatures today staying in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows Monday night will be in the low to mid 40s for most of the area while the Houston Metro and the immediate coast staying in the low to mid 50s.
Additional cooler and drier air will filter into the region for Monday into mid week.
Radar estimates show a good swath of 1-2 inches fell across the Lower and Middle Keys with locally higher amounts, especially in Marathon. This combined with the mid and higher cloud decks have hampered temperatures a little bit with current readings in the lower to mid 80s. A second stronger cold front can be seen on visible satelitte steadily marching southward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. From synopsis, an early season cold front will push through the Florida Keys this evening. Cooler and drier northwest to north breezes will persist tonight through Monday night, with fresh breezes likely at times.
109 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 High pressure exists across the region, as the ridge continues to build.
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal Pattern Synopsis: Elongated troughing stretching from New England back over the Ohio Valley will pivot over the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Further upstream, northern stream ridging will gradually fold over south-central Canada as southern stream ridging builds over the Rockies. A cyclone will continue to trek across the northern Atlantic tonight as expansive high pressure sags across the Great Plains and Rockies. Current temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s look to cool into the low to mid 40s for most areas early Monday morning. Ridging at the surface and aloft are in control for the most part through the short term portion of the forecast.
1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 An upper level low situated just off to our northwest is providing just enough lift and moisture for some very light rain and drizzle at update time. Cloud cover this morning is keeping temperatures a few degrees warmer than previously forecasted. This wave will continue to pump cooler temperatures into the area from the north. but we'll see another shot at light precip on Monday afternoon as another spoke of energy rotates around the upper trough.
1114 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Scattered showers are expected through early in the week under a trough of low pressure, and a cool northerly wind.
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region this week providing warm weather with high temperatures around 10 degrees above normal.
Today should be a fairly quiet day with some warmer temperatures in the 70s across the region. Also, winds gusting at 20-35 kt are likely in the Shasta Valley, as well as along ridgetops resulting in occasional turbulence today.
106 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Scattered showers are expected through early in the week under a trough of low pressure, and a cool northerly wind.
(Tonight through Monday night) The deterministic runs predict the development of a highly meridional upper pattern over the CONUS during the period, with an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, along with a corresponding ridge axis across the Rockies. A secondary surge of high pressure will maintain below normal temperatures during the period.
High pressure continues to build in from the west with highs today through the start of the work week expected in the mid 50s.
Our attention then turns to a warm-frontal boundary clipping the Cascades this afternoon and evening preceding an upper-level trough and cold- front slated to arrive Monday bringing widespread rain chances to the inland Pacific Northwest. Fortunately, confidence is still high in the return of drier and warmer weather for the middle of the week.
1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 A positive Pacific North American pattern was well established across the lower 48. Deep troughing was analyzed over the eastern United States while an upper ridge was strengthening across the Mountain West.
(This afternoon through Monday night) For those with insomnia, the short-term forecast may be a cure, as an upper ridge continues to dominate the western CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under pedestrian northwest flow aloft.
Cool and dry conditions will continue tonight and tomorrow amid dry northerly flow and large scale descent in the wake of a short wave trough. Winds should begin to diminish tomorrow night as this pressure gradient eases and high pressure builds in.
(Tonight through Monday night) Cooler than average temperatures, comfortable humidity levels and mainly clear skies will prevail through the short term period. The synoptic pattern leads into a northwest flow aloft as troughing deepens in the eastern CONUS while ridging amplifies across the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will continue to slide southward and will eventually center over the region by late Monday night.
(Tonight through Monday night) An upper level trough situated over the eastern US will deepen as it slowly moves eastward. Meanwhile a strengthening ridge over the western US will slowly work eastward. The northerly winds will continue to bring cooler and drier air to Deep South Texas. Monday night temperatures are expected to fall to the low to mid 50s.
High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 50s in northwest AR to the low to mid 60s across the rest of the forecast area. A few light showers are possible this afternoon in the higher terrain of northwest AR but should diminish by this evening. Most areas will fall into the lower 40s, though some pockets of upper 30s may develop along KS border.
146 PM PDT Sun Oct 15 2023 High pressure over the West Coast for the coming week with generally fair skies, warm days, and cool nights.
1233 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) An upper level low in the Midwest will move to the east coast by tonight. An upper ridge will expand over the southwest U. This ridge moves into the Plains Monday night. High pressure continues to build over the area this morning.
Drier, cooler air is expected for the rest of the day, with an increase of cloud cover coming in from the northwest later this afternoon. Chilly temperatures forecast for tonight, with lows dropping into the 50s area-wide, with slightly warmer temps on the coast.
(Today Evening through Monday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Main forecast highlight in the short term period will be temperatures trending warmer early this week. Upper level ridge builds across the Rockies for Monday, nudging east into the High Plains region.
- Rain chances return for the end of the work week but amounts on the low end (only a 20% shot for 1/4" or more). Bits of upper level energy could rotate into the trough with periods of cold air advection, favorable lapse rates promoting additional lift. Countering will be weak high pressure that meanders west-east across the region. Northerly flow aloft on backside of upper level closed low over the northeast United States continues to spread low level moisture/stratus clouds into the region through much of the taf period.
455 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Low pressure will track southeast of the region and east of Nova Scotia tonight through Monday.
High pressure dominates the second half of the week, with mild temperatures and dry conditions. The next threat for widespread rainfall will come by the late work week or over the weekend as low pressure develops and moves along the East Coast, but confidence on how organized or impactful this system will be remains low at this point. An elongated upper level low will track southwest across Maine today bringing a strong vorticity maximum with it. With this prolonged upslope, the higher summits have remained in nearly continuous freezing fog above 5000ft with rime ice building on the slopes.
149 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Warm, dry, and breezy conditions are expected through Monday as an upper level ridge remains overhead.
Tonight and Monday High pressure continues to build over the region this afternoon. Most of the region is in the 60s already this afternoon with some highs maxing out in the lower 70s possible in the lower Snake Plain and into the Magic Valley before the day is through. Monday will be even warmer with most valley locations climbing into the 70s with mid/upper 60s likely across the higher terrain.
High pressure moves in from the west by mid-week which will be accompanied by a slow warming trend along with dry weather. A deep upper level trough over the Northeast will pivot southward tonight and Monday bringing chilly temperatures and rain showers to the mountains. Low temperatures will be in the low 40s for most except upper 30s at the higher elevations. Trough axis passing overhead Monday and additional cyclonic vorticity advection will aid in the formation of bkn-ovc stratocu deck and isold-sct showers Mon-Mon evening. A few streamers may also develop over the Chesapeake Bay south of the US-50 bridge due to long fetch northerly flow moving over the relatively warm waters (mid 60s water temperatures) of the Chesapeake Bay. Cooler than normal temperatures will persist through the first half of the week under longwave trough pattern.
(This evening through Monday) Cool surface ridging remained in control over much of the region this afternoon making for pleasant fall weather.
A tight gradient remains at the surface through tomorrow with strong high pressure centered over the southern Plains. Despite this, high temperatures are currently forecast in the mid to upper 60s across most of the area with breezy winds keeping the apparent temperature about the same if not a touch cooler.
212 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 AFTERNOON Discussion: Today through Monday Night: There is quiet weather underneath the upper level ridge today, and above average temperatures will continue.
927 AM PDT Sun Oct 15 2023 High pressure over the West Coast for the coming week with generally fair skies, warm days, and cool nights.
1220 PM PDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, and are around five degrees above normal for this time of year.
Mid level ridge to our west will move only slowly east and region will generally be under anticyclonic NW mid level flow. As for temps tonight, over the plains, the only freezing temps will occur over generally th eastern Kiowa county/Prowers county region, and this area received a killing freeze already, so no NPW highlights are warranted. All other areas of the plains should see temps above freezing, especially areas just east of the mtns. As for temps for tomorrow, expect max temps to be a few degrees warmer than todays max temps. Key Messages: 1) Upper level ridging brings quiet weather and above seasonal temperatures into the early work week.
This will help keep daily highs on the cooler side once again, with most locations struggling to climb out of the lower 60s.
(Now through Monday) The forecast remains cool and dry as a rather large longwave upper trough slowly moves into the eastern US.
Lows will be mainly in the lower to mid-40s with some upper 30s across the higher elevations (slightly above normal for mid- October).
600 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Scattered showers are expected through early in the week under a trough of low pressure, and a cool northerly wind.
This evening through Sunday High pressure exists across the region, as the ridge continues to build.
605 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (This evening through Monday) Cool surface ridging remained in control over much of the region this afternoon making for pleasant fall weather.
Currently aloft a ridge of high pressure was slowly building into the area. This usually means warmer high temperatures, but on Monday, cool air will sneak into the region from the east to shave a few degrees off of Monday's high temperatures.
Today has been relatively quiet across the Florida Keys as we wait for the next cold front round overnight. The big story for tonight continues to be the next wave of the cold front. Low temperatures tonight will shift into the lower to mid 70s, with the promise of lower temperatures right around the corner. High temperatures are expected to tank down to the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
542 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) For those with insomnia, the short-term forecast may be a cure, as an upper ridge continues to dominate the western CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under pedestrian northwest flow aloft.
334 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Current water vapor and upper air analysis shows upper ridging over the western CONUS, while trough sits over the great lakes and New England region.
607 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Low pressure will track southeast of the region and east of Nova Scotia tonight through Monday.
750 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Drier, cooler air is expected for the rest of the day, with an increase of cloud cover coming in from the northwest later this afternoon. Chilly temperatures forecast for tonight, with lows dropping into the 50s area-wide, with slightly warmer temps on the coast.
611 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Dry, cool weather expected as high pressure continues to settle over the area, lingering through the middle of the week as temperatures run well below normal. Still think we could see a few sprinkles overnight as some low/mid-level troughing moves through but should be pretty dry in the sub-cloud layer. Lowered temps for our colder spots for Mon night as cool, dry air continues to pool in behind the cold front.
(This afternoon through Monday) On the backside of a strong cold front that pushed across the area late yesterday, temperatures are 7-12F degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago with widespread 60s (pockets of 50s from west-central to the higher elevations of far north GA). Heading into tonight/Monday, a compact upper level low currently entering western TN will continue moving SE, crossing north GA later this evening. Strong cold-air advection will drop temperatures into the lower-mid 40s for many locations overnight (even colder in the higher elevations). Sunshine starts the day tomorrow, but another spoke of energy embedded within broader long-wave trough over the eastern CONUS will generate more clouds and few light showers over far north GA.
655 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Warm, dry, and breezy conditions are expected through Monday as an upper level ridge remains overhead.
Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy conditions are expected tonight with lows mainly in the lower to mid-40s with some upper 30s across the higher elevations (slightly above normal for mid-October).
922 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Showers due to proximity to an upper level low and associated trough came to an end as the sunset.
Next reinforcing high pressure airmass moving through the Deep South this evening to build into the area overnight into Monday with gustier NW-N winds and an even cooler/drier airmass. A cold front continues to push south through our southern zones this afternoon, with the cooler and drier air in place back behind the front.
A weak system will bring light showers and sprinkles Monday afternoon, mainly over the Coastal Range, then warmer and drier weather returns. Upper level ridging is bringing dry weather and warmer temperatures across interior NorCal today. Afternoon temperatures will reach into the low to mid 80s across the Valley, with mid 70s to low 80s in the foothills, and 60s to 70s over the mountains. Ensembles indicate that a weak system will pass over the ridge into the Pacific Northwest Monday, brushing far northern California. Cluster analysis shows that an upper ridge will rebuild behind the system with dry and warm fall weather mid to late week.