Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Northwest winds will be breezy at times as the high pressure settles in. with cooler and much drier air advecting into the state through the short term. Tonight will be mostly clear as a high pressure begins to form over the AL/MS coast. with a few areas reaching the low 20s.
1231 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023 (This evening through Monday) High pressure is building at the surface, leaving calmer winds this evening and overnight. Ridging at mid levels will persist this afternoon through Monday morning, allowing for clear skies. As the high pressure and ridge begins to move eastward, winds will shift at the surface and aloft.
232 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 A cold front will move offshore this morning. High pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley region will build into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states through mid-week. Breezy and cooler today with plenty of sunshine. The cold front was moving east across central NC early this morning. Cool and dry air advection can be expected today as the main storm system lifts from the Great Lakes into SE Canada, and high pressure builds from Texas across the south. Sunny, breezy and warmer conditions Tuesday. The high pressure will move overhead on Tuesday night.
Relatively cooler conditions are expected today with daytime highs in the low to mid 70s. Winds settle down this evening as high pressure begins to build.
Tuesday's highs will be even warmer as warm air and moisture continue to stream into the area.
(Today through Tuesday) A cold front will continue through the Florida Peninsula on Monday and slow down as it approaches South Florida, which will keep hefty moisture lingering for the day. This will result in another muggy day as temperatures reach the low to mid 80s and dew points stay in the 70s. Ensembles are pointing toward coastal Miami-Dade county at highest risk for the strongest storms and heavier rain where the highest POPs are located. Temperatures will be in the low 80s on the east coast with mid 80s on the west coast as South Florida will be under a NE flow regime.
In addition, gusty southerly winds will occur over the highest elevation in the northern portion of the region this afternoon through tonight along of the frontal system. Latest IR satellite imagery shows a deepening area of low pressure digging southward from NEPAC into the PACNW.
Ridging moving to the east of the area will turn flow southwest and bring above normal temperatures to the area. Many areas will rise in to the 60s with 70s in the warmer locations. The wind will become gusty as well with pressure gradient tightening ahead of an advancing Pacific trough and cold front.
925 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 The cold front is in place across the Nature Coast this morning, with showers and a few thunderstorms continuing from around I-4 south. This will continue to push south and weaken through the morning, as drier and slightly cooler air moves into the north behind the front. The cold front will continue to push through the waters today, with winds and seas increasing behind it to SCEC levels. SCEC will continue into early Tuesday morning and then subside, with high pressure ridging over the region through the rest of the period.
The trend has been decisively colder and wetter, introducing potentially impactful snow accumulations, particularly for the highest elevations once again.
Gusty winds up to 25-30 mph are in the forecast today due to an increasing pressure gradient as high pressure feeds into the TN Valley from the southwest.
(Today through Tuesday) An elongated cold front, stemming from an occluded low pressure system over the Great Lakes, has pushed through the forecast area with prezzie and dry weather conditions behind the FROPA (frontal passage).
603 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023 (Today and tonight) Expect winds to quickly increase from the southwest late this morning through early this afternoon as a lee trough deepens.
851 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 Very dry weather is expected through Tuesday as high pressure builds in.
617 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023 (Today) Noticeably warmer temperatures today as sfc ridging slides east and southerly winds return.
Water vapor imagery highlights a short wave trough approaching Florida. A cold front stretches across Florida and is near Lake Okeechobee. A cold front will push through the Florida Keys coastal waters this afternoon. As high pressure builds off the coast of the Carolinas, moderate northeast to east breezes will continue through the end of the work week.
A cold front is on track to move through our region today, bringing windy conditions ahead and precipitation.
645 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023 (Today) Latest near term model consensus suggests that a deepening mid/upper-level cyclone located in the vicinity of Lake Michigan this morning, will shift northeastward through the central Great Lakes over the course of the day. In the absence of notable thermal advection, afternoon highs will be similar to those observed yesterday, ranging from the lower 60s in elevated terrain to 65-70 degrees in the valley.
Snow and a wintry mix are likely to be observed Monday night into early Tuesday; accumulation will be light and be confided to the ridges and north of I-80. As the low continues drifts into western Michigan, the Ohio River Valley will tap into residual moisture and isolated shallow light rain showers will advance into the region from the west. Scattered rain showers will increase in coverage into Monday evening as the center of the low repositions north of Lake Erie. With robust upsloping from a flux in vertical wind shear from the west, snow shower activity along the West Virginia ridges late tonight into early Tuesday could prompt 1-2 inches of snow. Improvements to the wind field will likely improve late Tuesday as the center of the low becomes an open wave and shifts north into Canada.
734 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 (Today through Tuesday) A cold front will continue through the Florida Peninsula on Monday and slow down as it approaches South Florida, which will keep hefty moisture lingering for the day. This will result in another muggy day as temperatures reach the low to mid 80s and dew points stay in the 70s. Ensembles are pointing toward coastal Miami-Dade county at highest risk for the strongest storms and heavier rain where the highest POPs are located. Temperatures will be in the low 80s on the east coast with mid 80s on the west coast as South Florida will be under a NE flow regime.
633 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 Cool temperatures, light precipitation and gusty winds are expected on Monday as an upper low moves through.
640 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 A cold front will move offshore this morning. High pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley region will build into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states through mid-week. Breezy and cooler today with plenty of sunshine. The cold front was moving east across central NC early this morning. Cool and dry air advection can be expected today as the main storm system lifts from the Great Lakes into SE Canada, and high pressure builds from Texas across the south. Sunny, breezy and warmer conditions Tuesday. The high pressure will move overhead on Tuesday night.
A fairly narrow ridge axis across the region early this morning, with light winds and clear skies in place. As the day progresses, this ridge axis will move eastward, with light winds for eastern areas. Upper level ridging moves into and through the area tonight and Tuesday, with warming temps aloft and at the surface. Low pressure to the south and southeasterly low level flow to start things off means a poor mixing environment, and while 1/2km winds increase to between 25 and 40kts, uncertain to what degree these will impact surface winds.
634 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 Very dry weather is expected through Tuesday as high pressure builds in.
Snow levels will remain above 5,000 feet today, dropping rapidly to valley floors behind the cold front Tuesday afternoon. A large portion of the region will remain above freezing tonight, helping to exacerbate the ponding and flooding potential as snow continues to melt. High temperatures Tuesday will run 10-15 degrees cooler than today.
1047 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 Cool temperatures, light precipitation and gusty winds are expected today as an upper low moves through.
Temperatures will bottom Tuesday night before trending significantly warmer into late week.
434 AM MDT Mon Apr 17 2023 We'll be even warmer and drier today under the ridge axis. We did tweak tonight's low a bit, a couple degrees cooler in the mountain valleys and warmer over the east slopes where downslope winds will start to increase later tonight. The main axis of the upper ridge pushes off to the east by Tuesday morning as an upper level trough pushes into the Great Basin. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70s for most of the lower elevations. Critical fire weather conditions will be a concern for the afternoon across the lower elevations, southern foothills, and Palmer Divide. A cold front drops southward across the plains late Tuesday night.
A quick-hitting weather system will approach the area today, bringing along the return of cooler and unsettled weather through mid-week.
509 AM MDT Mon Apr 17 2023 The warmest part of the forecast is arriving for the next few days as a transitory ridge moves across the Rockies. As the ridge slides farther East on Tuesday heights will be lowering and the gradient tightening as another Pacific storm barrels farther inland. A band of higher clouds will be drifting through earlier in the day which may limit some of the wind getting to the surface but by mid afternoon with the approach of a cold front.
255 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 Increased ridging over the area along with weak cold air advection. Temperatures will have a warming trend through the week and high pressure will persist through the majority of the workweek.
While at the higher elevations, mid to upper 40s prevail. High pressure is centered over east Texas this morning and is forecast to slide along the gulf coast today.
Much drier and cool air will continue to filter down the peninsula behind the recent cold frontal passage. Min temps will fall into the low and mid 50s by sunrise over the interior and low to mid 60s along the coast.
253 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue through the short term portion of the forecast.
Morning lows on Tuesday will range from the low to mid 50s along the immediate coast to the upper 40s inland.
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night) High pressure centered along the Louisiana coast continues to direct a dry northwest flow into Middle Tennessee, with pleasantly cool temperatures today and very low RH values.
148 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 Cool temperatures, light precipitation and gusty winds are expected today as an upper low moves through.
210 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 Discussion/Aviation/Marine - Snow into this evening, Quiet Weather for Monday - Upper low moving through with occasional heavier snow showers but skin temps in the 40s are not allowing any accums even in the heavier snow showers.
(This evening through Tuesday) High pressure will develop over the lower MS River Valley and move east through the short term. RH values will be in the lower 20s and upper teens across much of the area this afternoon. A mid level jet will also cause gusty winds and combined with the low RH. the high pressure moves across the state and with winds transitioning to out of the east or west around the high pressure. the high should be across the center of the state. Winds will be light within this high and warmer air will begin to advect into the state. High temperatures today will be near normal in the low to mid 70s.
Sunny to mostly sunny remains the rule in most places as the tranistory ridge continues to move eastward over the plains today. With a large trough approaching the western CONUS coast, that leaves us under strengthening southwest flow as the jet moves overhead. A tightened surface pressure gradient associated with a cold front will push into the area Tuesday evening. As this trough approaches on Tuesday, there will be slight chances for precipitation mainly along the Wyoming border.
309 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers develop tonight through Tuesday as an upper level low pushes into the region.
Vorticity advection coincident with mature low pressure in the Great lakes will allow for scattered rain showers today, increasing in coverage throughout the afternoon as the center of low pressure nears. In Tucker County, in the high elevations up to a couple of inches of snow are possible by Tuesday morning, and could create a dicey morning commute.
For Tuesday, winds will become more northerly and eventually northeasterly with drier air filtering down the peninsula as high pressure begins to take over the weather pattern. Temperatures will be in the low 80s on the east coast with mid 80s on the west coast under the northeasterly flow.
Even with thermo in the single digit to low teens at 850mb & 925mb, respectively, should warm nicely near normals in the low-mid 70s.
Although a strong thunderstorms is possible, especially across Crockett County, the higher potential for a strong to severe thunderstorm will be to the west of our forecast area.
352 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023 Current surface analysis places low over the Great Lakes into eastern Ontario, with ridge stretching through the eastern plains. Upper level analysis places low off the northwest Pacific coast, with ridge over the northern plains. For tonight, a weak initial short wave slides mainly over western portions of the area as upper ridge does a gradual progression east. On Tuesday, upper ridge continues to scoot over to the east as a stout short wave swinging around the base of the Pacific ridge works its way towards the Rockies. Elongated surface lee trough deepens, resulting in breezy southeasterly winds over the area.
327 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 High pressure will be the dominant feature through the week. A cold front could move through early this weekend.
(Thru Tonight) South winds and rising dewpoints will yield overnight lows considerably warmer than last night's cold (sub-freezing in some spots) readings.
300 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 The cold front continues to push through the area, with a few showers continuing across the south and southern interior this afternoon. These will continue to move out of the area through the rest of the afternoon, and skies will continue to gradually clear as high pressure builds in behind the front. Drier and slightly cooler air will be moving in under the high pressure on northerly winds overnight, and conditions will be much drier for the next few afternoons. High pressure remains across the area then through the week keeping conditions dry as temperatures and moisture gradually moderate.
Another day of efficient mixing is possible, with low level humidity again near or below critical levels in the low-mid 20% range.
Lightning from any thunderstorms could result in fire starts, which would be less than favorable considering the low relative humidities and breezy conditions.
259 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023 The lows tonight will be in the mid-to-low 30s.
154 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 A deep upper level low will bring dramatically colder and unsettled weather through Tuesday night, with occasional showers and lake effect rain.
/Tonight through Monday/ Key Messages: -Warmer and quiet on Tuesday.
Flow will back more to the southwest by mid-afternoon as a trough and weak cold front approach. Rain and high elevation snow will also spread east of the Divide by sunrise Tuesday as the trough continues to move east. A reinforcing cold front will begin pushing into western Wyoming by early afternoon. The trough axis will pass through Tuesday evening, and the bulk of the precipitation will pull northward into Montana. Unsettled and cool conditions will continue, however, as general troughiness persists through the end of the week.
Lows tonight are forecast to drop into the low to mid 40s-- roughly 5-10 degrees below-normal for this time of year.
154 PM MDT Mon Apr 17 2023 Current water vapor and upper air models show upper ridge over the lee side of the Rockies and Northern Plains this afternoon, with a closed Upper Low over the Great Lakes region. Upper ridge centered over the region should keep the area mostly dry, at least through Tuesday morning. Precipitation chances increase the latter half of Tuesday as the ridge slides eastward and troughing digs into the western CONUS. Cold front is progged to move through the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
1205 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023 (Today and tonight) Expect winds to quickly increase from the southwest late this morning through early this afternoon as a lee trough deepens.
Surface observations from the marine platforms indicate west winds average 16 to 20 knots, with gusts in the low 20s. The cold front over Florida continues to make steady progress, with dewpoints now falling into the upper 60s at Buoy 42023.
403 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 High pressure will build overhead by midweek, keeping the area dry and sunny.
Warmer temperatures will return over the weekend as a ridge rebuilds across the area. This afternoons satellite imagery depicts a large and cold trough creeping offshore of the PacNW coastline that will continue to gradually shift eastward over the next couple of days. While precipitation impacts will remain focused across the Great Basin and points northward, we will see increasingly gusty winds spreading across our forecast area along with a trend towards cooler temperatures.
250 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 High pressure will build in from the southwest through Tuesday.
1126 AM MDT Mon Apr 17 2023 The warmest part of the forecast is arriving for the next few days as a transitory ridge moves across the Rockies. As the ridge slides farther East on Tuesday heights will be lowering and the gradient tightening as another Pacific storm barrels farther inland. A band of higher clouds will be drifting through earlier in the day which may limit some of the wind getting to the surface but by mid afternoon with the approach of a cold front.
320 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 An upper low will keep unsettled conditions over the area through this evening. Dry conditions return on Tuesday as high pressure builds in.
309 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023 Ongoing gusty winds will relax high as high pressure builds towards the region from the south. Elsewhere, low temperatures will mainly drop into the lower to middle 40s. Low temperatures Tuesday night will only dip into the lower to middle 50s.
355 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 An upper low will bring cooler temperatures with isolated to scattered showers tonight into Tuesday. A few breaks in the clouds this evening, then the upper low tracks into our region through the night.
Another cold night on Tuesday night with lows in the lower to mid 30s with a few locations slightly colder.
235 PM MDT Mon Apr 17 2023 Satellite imagery shows SW flow over the region ahead of a deep trof off the Pacific coast.
244 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023 A strong area of low pressure was located over the Great Lakes, which has set up a tight pressure gradient across Iowa and Illinois. Temperatures have rebounded where the sun has come out, reaching the lower to mid 50s in central and southern sections. It's much colder across the Highway 20 corridor due to remaining low clouds in this area. horticulture specialists suggest that sensitive vegetation across most of the outlook area is susceptible to freezing conditions.
Temperatures will begin the significant climb tomorrow with highs around 10 degrees warmer than today. Winds will keep some areas "warmer" overnight, but isolated areas sheltered from winds may see good decoupling overnight. Forecast soundings indicate mixing up to just under 700mb, so approximately 7,500 ft as the highest mixing height value. High pressure edging across the Gulf Coast, following the departing low to our north is what is causing these winds because of the pressure gradient between them.
137 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 Very dry weather is expected through Tuesday as high pressure builds in.
224 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 Increased ridging over the area along with weak cold air advection. Temperatures will have a warming trend through the week and high pressure will persist through the majority of the workweek.
Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler today.
This high will provide clear skies. Temperatures will be cooler than normal with lows dipping into the mid 40s inland, lower to mid 50s closer to the coast. The sea breeze will push inland Tuesday afternoon, limiting highs at the coast to the lower 70s, whereas inland highs will reach around 80.
1143 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 Cooler behind the front to start the week. As ridging builds over the region during the week, expect warming temperatures and dry weather.
A cold front continues to slowly move through the Northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. Idaho county into southwest Montana will experience the bulk of the precipitation with the higher terrain receiving a significant amount of snow.
This will be in response to an approaching upper low that is expected to impact the area by mid- week. Highs for Tuesday will range from the low 40s in the Devils Lake Basin, to the low 50s in west-central Minnesota.
Generally cooler today, with areas of morning low cloud coverage and high cloudiness spreading in.
200 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023 Upper ridging will remain in place across the forecast area tonight and most of Tuesday, with even milder temperatures expected for Tuesday afternoon.
A weak but narrow negatively tilted trough has continued to dip over the area today, helping to force a well defined front on shore. The heaviest rain will fall along upper elevation ridges. HREF shows the highest confidence around Collier Tunnel where there is at least a 50% chance of 2 to 4 inches over the next few hours.
Meanwhile, northeasterly winds gradually increase into the afternoon on Tuesday The cold front continues to push through the area, with a few showers continuing across the south and southern interior this afternoon. These will continue to move out of the area through the rest of the afternoon, and skies will continue to gradually clear as high pressure builds in behind the front. Drier and slightly cooler air will be moving in under the high pressure on northerly winds overnight, and conditions will be much drier for the next few afternoons. High pressure remains across the area then through the week keeping conditions dry as temperatures and moisture gradually moderate.
The combination of these features were keeping temps warmer this evening with upper 50s to low 70s still common. temps tonight should remain warmer compared to last night.
A much quieter evening today, with drier air filtering down into the peninsula behind an earlier cold front. High pressure building in overnight, with lingering clouds along and offshore of the Treasure Coast clearing. Noticeably cooler, as lows fall into the lower to mid-50s. Locations along the immediate coast south of the Cape look to remain in the lower 60s. Clouds clearing overnight behind the earlier cold front.
830 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 High pressure begins to build over the next few days behind fropa. This will bring drier and much cooler temperatures each morning through mid week. High pressure builds over through the week improving conditions through the week.
(Tonight) High pressure at the sfc continues to move eastward across the western/central Gulf Coast states this Mon evening. Overnight temps will be a few degrees cooler compared to this morning, with lows mainly in the lower/mid 40s for most spots.
A vertically stacked low pressure system will continue to gradually lift northeast of the region during this time. Additionally, temperatures will fall below freezing overnight, which will cause any wet and untreated roads and surfaces to freeze. Upper-level ridging will gradually build over the Upper Mississippi Valley, causing the lingering moisture from the the vertically stacked low to push out of the area. Temperatures will rebound on Tuesday, but remain below normal, with highs ranging from the low 40s to low 50s.