Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
301 PM MDT Wed Sep 13 2023 An upper level trough over the Northern Rockies and Great Basin will track southeast over the next 24 hours. This trough is helping to trigger showers and thunderstorms across Utah and western two-thirds of Colorado. Trimmed back PoPs for this with only 10-20 PoPs for the lower elevations. With some support from the upper level trough, the showers and storm may continue through the evening hours before ending. A cold front will push south through the area after midnight bringing north winds and cooler air for Thursday. Lift ahead of the upper level trough and weak upslope flow behind the cold front will help produce numerous showers and thunderstorms Thursday.
Apart from this, a weak sfc cold front that passed over the MidSouth yesterday is resulting in slightly cooler and drier conditions for majority of the forecast area tonight. Subsequently, dewpoint values have slightly decreased ranging from the low 50s to low 60s.
816 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 The slow moving upper trough will continue slide eastward today and with deep moisture in place, another afternoon of scattered shower and thunderstorms is in store.
Key Messages: - A cold front will move southeast on Thursday and provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms.
Weak upper level troughing continuing to move through the area today. A ridge of high pressure at the surface in Oregon is helping increase a N-S pressure gradient, which is currently producing northerly wind speeds near 10 mph near Redding AP. The weak upper level troughing will bring a slight (5-15%) chance of elevated showers today and 5-10% chance tomorrow over the Sierra in the Southeastern most section of our CWA.
Flow trajectories will becoming sharply anticyclonic through the mid morning hours on Thursday with high pressure centering overhead. Latest water vapor imagery shows amplified upper level trough encompassing the Great Lakes region and the Ohio River Valley.
245 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 The trough is continuing to drop slowly southward across the state this morning, and continues to bring showers mainly east of the divide. The trough has also brought a weak cold front southward through the state, with modest north winds in its wake for most areas. This afternoon, the ample moisture in place will also trigger some thunderstorms activity along the higher elevations of the Wind River range and the Bighorns. All this activity will be decreasing after sunset with loss of daytime heating, and should be completely done by midnight as the trough exits the region.
252 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 * Another cool morning with patchy fog * Dry, sunny, and highs in the 70s Another spectacular September day is in the forecast for all of Central Indiana as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature through the week. May see a few diurnal cu develop during peak heating of the day; however a drying boundary layer and subsidence under the high should keep cloud cover to a minimum. A tranquil weather pattern will dominate throughout the extended as high pressure persists across much of the eastern part of the country.
315 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 A slow moving cold front will move offshore this morning.
- Pleasant cool night ahead Surface analysis this evening shows a large area of high pressure over the western Great Lakes. Water Vapor showed ridging in place over the northern plains and upper midwest, extending northeast into western Ontario.
Still expecting the highest PoPs in our northern and eastern counties where additional showers and storms should occur this morning, per trends from the CAMs. The models show indications of an old frontal boundary to the south lifting into the southern part of our area as a warm front today. Expect highs to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s over the Big Country, to the lower 90s across the far southern part of our area. The higher PoPs will be generally across the northern half of our area.
With some light shower activity and limited insolation, afternoon temperatures may struggle to reach the upper 70s in some locations while those further north and east that see sun may rise into the low 80s.
216 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Cold front continues to slowly push through the area today.
The HRRR is performing well so far with this activity and given its acceptable run-to-run continuity, have raised PoPs to 80% overnight centered generally along the Highway 84 corridor coincident with a NW-SE oriented moisture gradient from 850-700 mb. (This evening through Thursday) Westerly flow aloft will persist over the region with the upper level trough over the Great Lakes region transiting to the northeast and an area of high pressure over central Mexico. Southeast surface flow in combination with the persistent robust cloud cover have kept the area cooler than anticipated, therefore have lowered todays high temperatures by a few degrees with CONSshort. Therefore, we have sided with the cooler guidance for highs tomorrow with temperatures in the 70s areawide.
An upper trough system stretching from the Great Lakes to New England is supplying remnant moisture to the Lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of a frontal boundary placed along the MS coastline. At the surface, a high pressure over the mid-west will assist in westerly flow across the ArkLaMiss region. Cloud cover is expected to limit surface heating, allowing for highs in the lower 80s in the north to low 90s in the far southeast.
136 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 A cold front will move slowly south of the region tonight, with dry high pressure building over to the north through Thursday.
Otherwise, continued cool conditions are expected for the FA with highs primarily in the lower to mid 70s.
(Today) The cooler and drier airmass has finally arrived as indicated by dewpoints now in the low to mid 50s. Afternoon highs top out in the lower 80s, combined with a light breeze out of the north will make for a wonderful late summer day.
139 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2023 High pressure will continue to bring dry weather with temperatures warming to above normal values for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
1221 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 High pressure builds over the area through the weekend. Cold front continues to move offshore and dry air advection is underway. High pressure builds in on Thursday, with cooler Canadian air dominating under mostly sunny skies and a relatively light northwesterly wind.
As Lee lifts northward, more broad ridging settles across the FL peninsula, additional moisture advects into the area, and subsidence looks to wane.
The most significant short wave trough in this zonal flow is moving eastward across New Mexico this morning with convection blossoming ahead of it across the western Panhandle and South Plains regions. However, a lull in precipitation is expected behind the upper trough in a region of modest subsidence. This clearing and increased insolation should result in some destabilization of the air mass mid to late afternoon with a low level theta-e ridge developing eastern New Mexico to the western South Plains that could serve as the focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Better chances should be back on the high terrain of New Mexico again where moist upslope flow should work its magic again.
339 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Deep layer subsidence is ongoing this morning as the amplified upper trough departs to the east, leading to clear skies for almost the entire Lower Peninsula. 850mb temps initially around 5C will trend a few degrees higher by day's end, primarily via diabatic heating as temperature advection will be weak with high pressure building in.
1128 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 (Rest of tonight) Overall, an uneventful night will unfold as we remain in the wake of a cold front stretched to our south, and northerly flow keeps cooler air in place over the area.
RMS Upper trough axis was moving through Idaho at midday with satellite imagery showing moisture and convective activity within the SW flow ahead of the system. Scattered showers and thunderstorms (more like thundershowers) will continue to develop over the high country and push east through the evening. Much of the precipitation will push to the SE corner of Montana by 6 am Thursday as the trough axis shift southeast.
233 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a series of troughs and ridges oriented along the International Border. The first trough is exiting eastern Montana today while the first ridge moves into western Montana. Another trough coupled to this ridge sits off the coast of the Pacific Northwest eager to join the march with yet another ridge just behind it.
154 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Cool high pressure settles in for the remainder of the work week.
1130 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance High pressure is place throughout the region today with temperatures in the 70s.
211 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Cold front continues to slowly push through the area today.
Low temperatures will be a bit warmer this morning than yesterday due to the increased cloud cover, ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
At the surface, low pressure was located over central ND with a cold front dropping south into the northweThe probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. There are also indications that a brief period of surface smoke will accompany the cold front today. This looks to be a short term event with only a narrow band of surface smoke behind the cold front. an upper level trough currently spinning over central Alberta, rotates down into southern Manitoba. This will push a secondary cold front into the forecast area late tonight. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the lower 40s to lower 50s under partly cloudy skies.
138 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Upper trof exits the area this morning with dry northwest flow building in behind it for this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will range from the low to mid 70s.
1245 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 High pressure builds over the area through the weekend. Cold front continues to move offshore and dry air advection is underway. High pressure builds in on Thursday, with cooler Canadian air dominating under mostly sunny skies and a relatively light northwesterly wind.
946 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather with temperatures warming back up to above normal values for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
205 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 A trof aloft evident in water vapor imagery is moving through eastern MT early this morning. Meanwhile, a pre-frontal trof over western SD will continue to move east today, with a cold front eventually catching up to the sfc trof. QPF amount probs suggest mainly light amounts of rain today, with the highest probs for a quarter inch or so of rain existing over the far eastern CWA this afternoon and evening, likely due to the juxtaposition of lift from the frontal zone and afternoon instability resulting from diabatic heating.
A moderate ridge-valley temperature split is evident, particularly northwest of Pine Mountain with values ranging from the upper 40s in the cooler valleys to the middle and upper 50s over the the thermal belt ridges. The latest 500H analysis shows an upper level trough extending from the Ottawa Valley down across the Appalachians. Behind the trough, ridging is found over the Central Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cool Canadian high pressure, centered across the Western Great Lakes, is in firm control of the Ohio Valley. That area of high pressure will slowly shift eastward toward the St.
301 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Cool high pressure settles in for the remainder of the work week.
The upper level trough over the eastern US will slide east and upper ridging will begin to build over our area during the period. As the high drifts east, the low level flow will become more easterly/southeasterly although it will remain weak. There is still indication for low-end rain chances towards southwest North Carolina due to the terrain and weak low level upslope flow, and models show some limited convective energy so will keep the low PoPs for showers/thunderstorms there for this afternoon.
1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Synoptic & water vapor analysis this evening indicate westerly zonal flow, while longwave trough/cold core continues to propagate east-northeast across southern Canada & into the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface centered over the Great Lakes region, will continue to settle south into the area. Mostly cloudy skies will exist tonight, with lows ranging from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. Clouds will continue to linger across the region Thursday, as highs range from the lower 80s to around 90. Daytime temperatures in the low 80s to low 90s along with overnight temperatures in the mid 60s are expected.
324 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Clear and dry under high pressure for the remainder of the work week.
604 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 (Today) The cooler and drier airmass has finally arrived as indicated by dewpoints now in the low to mid 50s. Afternoon highs top out in the lower 80s, combined with a light breeze out of the north will make for a wonderful late summer day.
630 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Cold front continues to slowly push through the area today.
At the surface, low pressure was located over central ND with a cold front dropping south into the northwest portion of the state. There are also indications that a brief period of surface smoke will accompany the cold front today. This looks to be a short term event with only a narrow band of surface smoke behind the cold front. an upper level trough currently spinning over central Alberta, rotates down into southern Manitoba. This will push a secondary cold front into the forecast area late tonight. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the lower 40s to lower 50s under partly cloudy skies. Friday morning begins with the upper level trough across southern Manitoba moving east, as the large ridge over the western CONUS begins building east behind it.
Accompanying surface cold front looks to be entering far northeast Colorado by around 00z today and then reach a Norton to Tribune line by 12z before continuing south on Friday. Precipitation expected to gradually end Friday night as the upper trough axis finally moves out.
Highs for both today and tomorrow will range from the mid to upper 80s inland to the low 90s over coastal counties.
Still anticipating highs to merely reach the lower to mid 80s, with mid 70s to around 80 degrees for portions of the Cumberland Plateau.
635 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 (Today through Friday) The persistent mid-level ridge remains anchored across northern Mexico through the short term, keeping well above normal temperatures in place today and Friday.
High pressure will be overhead today and begin drifting east tonight and Friday. Highs in the mid to upper 60s are expected today and a few degrees warmer Friday.
High pressure will bring fair weather conditions through Friday with lows in the mid to upper 40s and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
With enough moisture hanging on for another day, continued instability, and a series of weak troughs passing through northern Arizona, showers and thunderstorms are forecast for this afternoon.
A moderate ridge-valley temperature split is evident, particularly northwest of Pine Mountain with values ranging from the upper 40s in the cooler valleys to the middle and upper 50s over the the thermal belt ridges. The latest 500H analysis shows an upper level trough extending from the Ottawa Valley down across the Appalachians. Behind the trough, ridging is found over the Central Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cool Canadian high pressure, centered across the Western Great Lakes, is in firm control of the Ohio Valley. That area of high pressure will slowly shift eastward toward the St. Tonight's lows are forecast to range from the mid 40s in the cooler valleys to the mid 50s over the thermal belt ridges.
635 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Key Messages: - A pre-frontal trough will move southeast through the area on Friday.
731 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 (Today through Friday) Weak mid-level ridging over the region will gradually flatten today as troughing spreads over much of the eastern US. High temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 90s, with heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees. By Friday, mid-level zonal (westerly) flow will persist across the region, in between troughing over the eastern US and weak ridging over the Carribean. The cooler atmosphere and better chances for cloud cover will keep high temperatures a little cooler than recent days, but still in the low 90s, with peak heat index values around 100-105F.
High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Friday night. With the high centered over the Great Lakes region, surface winds will continue from the north to northeast, keeping our temperatures below normal. By Friday night, models show an upper level trof approaching from the northwest.
Expect some degree of a diurnal cumulus field today given moisture in place in the low levels. Deep layer subsidence is ongoing this morning as the amplified upper trough departs to the east, leading to clear skies for almost the entire Lower Peninsula. 850mb temps initially around 5C will trend a few degrees higher by day's end, primarily via diabatic heating as temperature advection will be weak with high pressure building in. Southwest return flow brings increasing 1000-500mb thicknesses and allows for high temps to rebound a few degrees into the lower 70s under mainly sunny skies. Meanwhile, a closed upper low will be tracking from Manitoba in western Ontario, forcing an elongated cold front across the upper Midwest.
This activity appeared to correspond to an area of upward forcing ahead of the positive tilt mid-level short wave trough extending from northwest Wyoming to southern California. The ridge building over the West will bring some drying and subsidence to northeast Utah and extreme northwest Colorado on Friday, but elsewhere moisture levels are expected to go relatively unchanged. In response to increased clouds and showers, afternoon highs will be cooler than normal today and even a few degrees cooler Friday.
Rain/thunderstorm chances will increase as we head into Friday due to a weak mid level trough pushing through in addition to further moisture increase (PWATs rising above 2. With the rainfall potential increasing on Friday, temperatures are forecast to be slightly cooler, which may hinder the heat threat. Overnight lows tonight will range from the mid 70s to the low 80s areawide.
* Another cool morning with patchy fog * Dry, sunny, and highs in the 70s Another spectacular September day is in the forecast for all of Central Indiana as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature through the week. May see a few diurnal cu develop during peak heating of the day; however a drying boundary layer and subsidence under the high should keep cloud cover to a minimum. A tranquil weather pattern will dominate throughout the extended as high pressure persists across much of the eastern part of the country.
932 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 A slow moving cold front will move offshore this morning.
Expect cool temperatures to continue through the end of the week with daily highs in the low to mid 80s.
304 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Overview: Fire weather concerns remain the highlight of this forecast as we head into a warm stretch of weather through the weekend.
Skies are clear early this morning as the weak trough continues to shift to the south and east away from the region. High pressure is building across NorCal and profiler data indicate the marine layer depth is decreasing. Upper ridge moves overhead today and Friday. This will likely result in a little warmer temperatures with warmest readings over the northern Sacramento Valley once again around the century mark. The next closed low is forecast to develop off the coast over the weekend bringing a modest cool down along with a return of late day thunderstorm chances over the mountains as moisture and instability increase from the south.
(Today through Friday) The persistent mid-level ridge remains anchored across northern Mexico through the short term, keeping well above normal temperatures in place today and Friday.
Highest chances of heavy rain will be across the southeastern Great Basin and eastern Mojave Desert, particularly over the higher terrain where PWATs remain in excess of 1 inch.
621 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 The trough is continuing to drop slowly southward across the state this morning, and continues to bring showers mainly east of the divide. The trough has also brought a weak cold front southward through the state, with modest north winds in its wake for most areas. This afternoon, the ample moisture in place will also trigger some thunderstorms activity along the higher elevations of the Wind River range and the Bighorns. All this activity will be decreasing after sunset with loss of daytime heating, and should be completely done by midnight as the trough exits the region. Ridging starts to build back into the region Friday and into the upcoming weekend.
645 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 A slow moving cold front will move offshore this morning.
Over the next several days through the weekend, high pressure will continue to bring us sunshine, and warmer than average high temperatures. and up to 80 percent chance in the Polebridge region.
611 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 A trof aloft evident in water vapor imagery is moving through eastern MT early this morning. Meanwhile, a pre-frontal trof over western SD will continue to move east today, with a cold front eventually catching up to the sfc trof. QPF amount probs suggest mainly light amounts of rain today, with the highest probs for a quarter inch or so of rain existing over the far eastern CWA this afternoon and evening, likely due to the juxtaposition of lift from the frontal zone and afternoon instability resulting from diabatic heating. A bit cooler airmass comes in for Friday, but deeper mixing (upwards of sfc-H7) may offset the slight decrease in airmass temperatures.
700 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Clear and dry under high pressure for the remainder of the work week.
639 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Relatively warm today with a cold front passage bringing the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms.
Forecast soundings indicate a favorable thermodynamic profile east of Phoenix across the higher terrain where HREF MUCAPE values are around 1,000 J/kg. Meanwhile, heights will gradually rise as an upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific shifts east over the western CONUS.
The cloud cover will moderate coastal high temperatures, which will remain in the 60s, while the Bayshore should expect highs in the mid to upper 70s, and interior valleys reaching into the mid to upper 80s with the most interior locations rising to the low 90s.
Surface dewpoints have fallen into the upper 50s across northwest Alabama, while readings were in the lower 70s south of the front. Highs both days will be in the lower to middle 80s, except for some upper 70s in the far eastern areas.
1018 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Clear and dry under high pressure for the remainder of the work week.
The large-scale upper flow regime this morning was dominated by an upper ridge shifting east across the West Coast. The ridge will support a very dry airmass and strong deep layer warming, and when combined with abundant afternoon sunshine, will yield widespread upper 80s to mid 90s across interior valleys, with a few locations possibly reaching the low 100s. Thereafter, the previously mentioned ridge will exit east and a weak upper low will approach from the west.
The highest rain chances hinge on the location of the front and currently that location is expected to be the central and eastern Permian Basin. There may be some scattered convection holding temps down in a few locations this afternoon, everywhere else should see highs around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Friday will be similar to today with perhaps the eastern Permian Basin a few degrees cooler thanks to increased rain coverage.