Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Back door cold front could lead to some showers and storms Tuesday. Discussion: Omega block still in place as low pressure aloft is centered northeast of the area and a large amplitude ridge was found over the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure was east of the area. The better BL moisture is not far away, to the west and northwest, but with the flow pattern it should stay drier until convergence ahead of the backdoor cold front pools moisture ahead of it.
320 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Seasonably warm conditions will persist early this week before cooler air builds in for midweek and beyond.
1101 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Seasonably cooler and drier air will be here for much of the upcoming week. Highs today will range from the low to mid 70s across the Central and NW two thirds of the CWA, while communities throughout the Susq Valley will likely experience highs in the upper 70s.
In the upper levels, an amplified ridge persists over the region while low pressure circulations rotate over the Pacific Northwest, southern Californian coast, and Great Lakes through New England region. At the surface, modest pressure falls have turned winds to the south over western North Dakota, while eastern portions of the state are seeing variable light winds under the center of the high. The pattern repeats itself again on Tuesday with the high parked overhead.
Highs this afternoon will range from the lower to mid 80s in East Texas with ongoing showers and cloud coverage limiting temps to the lower 90s with more sunshine in the ArkLaMiss. High temperatures to range from the upper 80s across east and northeast Texas to the lower 90s across south Arkansas and north Louisiana both today and Tuesday.
For Tuesday, upper ridge over southern Canada will weaken as it moves south into the Dakotas.
Without very much cloud cover and lighter winds overnight lows should mostly be in the lower to mid 60s. Tuesday will see little change in the overall pattern as high pressure aloft remains in control and diurnally driven showers and storms are again expected.
Low temperatures Tuesday night will moderate back to seasonable readings in the lower 60s.
131 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Unseasonably cooler and drier air continues to affect the area today.
Weak ridging aloft holds for tomorrow with a short wave trough being pushed in from the west. This will bring the best chances for showers and storms to the higher terrain. Highs on Tuesday are a few degrees warmer than today, but stay below average in the mid 80s for many.
402 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Longwave trough amplification underway over the Northeast helps retain a milder airmass for the Great Lakes through much of the week. Meager mid-level moisture works southward through the evening hours ahead of a dry backdoor cold front which veers winds more northerly.
Tonight and Tuesday A fast moving, but relatively weak cold front crossed the region this morning, brining a few weak showers to the region.
Lows tonight will be near normal, with mid 50s in the east and mid 60s in the west as a cooler and drier airmass begins to push in from the east.
206 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will diminish overnight, while a Canadian cold front moves southward into North Central MT on Tuesday morning.
Locally, the upper low flow today is fairly zonal and there is dry air in place over the mid levels today, which was shown nicely by the 12Z MFL sounding. Afternoon/early evening convection is expected again, with the highest PoPs generally over the interior and SW FL.
222 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Cooler and dry conditions continue with northerly flow. A crossing cold front on Tuesday could develop isolated showers in the afternoon, primarily east and south of Pittsburgh. Upper low pressure currently east of Cape Cod will shift towards Newfoundland on Tuesday. A small exception can be made for the eastern forecast area where the ridges may provide some lift for a few showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.
A passing cold front tomorrow could develop showers south of Pittsburgh tomorrow. Dry, cool conditions will continue today under northerly flow under high pressure. The upper low will continue to wobble and deepen through the short term as the core of the system goes from MA coast to Nova Scotia. Moisture starved short wave troughs will rotate around the west side of this low toward the region, but little more than some cu coverage is anticipated for much of the area. A small exception can be made for the eastern forecast area where the ridges may provide some lift for a few showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.
231 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Near-zonal flow remains aloft over the region through the next several days while at the surface, a weak frontal boundary over the area dissipates with high pressure building in behind it. A similar setup will be in place for Tuesday as far as rain chances, but high pressure will bring in slightly lower dew points compared with today.
Concerning this evening convection, the high resolution models all show it to be over by 04Z/05Z. Ho The blocking upper ridge is expected to continue to our northeast with very weak flow aloft for the CWA. For temperatures, it looks a bit warmer on Tuesday for highs, but still a bit below seasonal normals.
Quiet conditions are expected overnight, with lows dropping back into the lower 60s.
1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Aviation Section Updated Showers and thunderstorms will diminish overnight, while a Canadian cold front moves southward into North Central MT on Tuesday morning.
1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 A mid to upper level ridge will continue to persist over the Plains, causing a high pressure to stay over the Northern Plains over the next couple of days. After looking at a couple of models, they show a weak low pressure system moving southwest into southern Kansas, which could help the forcing for hit or miss storm development. Tuesday shower and storm chances look to be not as high as today due to the weak low pressure system moving south into Oklahoma but after looking at a sounding we still have an uncapped atmosphere across central and eastern Kansas.
935 AM PDT Mon Jun 5 2023 The weather will be be cooler than average this week with a stalled trough over the Southwest and a deep marine layer in place.
124 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Seasonably cooler and drier air will be here for much of the upcoming week. Highs today will range from the low to mid 70s across the Central and NW two thirds of the CWA, while communities throughout the Susq Valley will likely experience highs in the upper 70s. Min temps tonight will generally be in the low to mid 50s.
More widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible with highs in upper 80s to low 90s with lows in the low 60s.
Expect nearly a repeat for Tuesday as the stalling/weakening cold front sets up over our eastern counties. Temperatures falling into the low 60s still look solid, with high confidence as model solution are still very constant on both high and low temperatures through at least Tuesday night.
Regardless, thunderstorms should diminish after sunset this evening, giving way to another mild night in the low 60s.
418 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Low pressure to the east will keep conditions overall cool and rainy this week with slight improvements each day. Overview: The center of the upper level low will remain blocked over New Brunswick through at least the end of the week. Another trough will swing down into the area right behind our current system, with some uncertainty in the timing and magnitude.
1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Synoptically we have a stationary boundary to our north, with a trough stretching from northwestern MS to the front across northern section of middle TN. Meanwhile high pressure is across the Atlantic basin and stretches into east-central Alabama. Activity today will be across the the western and central sections of the area, basically south of the trough and west of the area of high pressure.
303 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Given upper trough and upper vorticity disturbances rotating around it modulating things, unsettled pattern to continue through tomorrow with typical diurnal cycle of thunderstorm development over land during the day. Tomorrow night will start to transition to a drier but hotter pattern with height rises and an upper ridge building to the west. with the trough shifting east.
139 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Cold front will move south across the Great Lakes late Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure Tuesday night through the end of the week. North to south moving 500mb trough axis/PVA brings brief cloud cover this morning, but dry due to continued lack of low/mid level moisture. Longwave pattern aloft persists with the upper low off the New England coast characteristic of slightly below normal temperatures for the eastern CWA and the aforementioned lack of column humidity. Weak cold front late Monday night into Tuesday with a strengthening deformation zone might be able to trigger isolated convection just south of the CWA Tuesday upon exit. Generally quiet weather is expected through the short term period with weak high pressure influencing much of the weather pattern across the Lower Great Lakes region.
Drier air continues to advect southward around a fairly strong area of high pressure (1032 mb) presently centered across north central Canada. This high pressure area will dominate the weather picture over the next few days keeping the region rain free. Omega blocking over the central US and s central Canada will dominate.
300 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 High pressure builds in tonight through Tuesday with mainly dry conditions, then a more unsettled pattern for mid week. High pressure edging off the SE coast this afternoon allowing for weak onshore flow to commence. Therefore, hedged on the cooler side of guidance, with lows generally in the mid/upr 50s interior to low 60s coast, quite a bit warmer than last night.
(The rest of this afternoon and Tonight) Ongoing, widely scattered storms will last through the afternoon hours, mainly across southeast Oklahoma near a weak mid level trough axis sliding across north Texas. Isolated to scattered storms will also be likely within the higher terrain regions of northwest Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma as daytime heating reaches its peak.
Any smoke that mixes down could remain trapped in the low levels as forecast soundings show a strong near surface inversion developing overnight. Look for highs in the low to mid 80s. The synoptic scale pattern remains characterized by a broad amplifying trough over the northeastern United States, with ridging centered over the northern plains.
The ridge continues to be centered over the Northern Plains while the trough continues to linger over the Great Basin. The ridge axis should be where the fog should be the thickness. Later today a weak upper level short wave trough will deepen over the forecast area. Tuesday the forecast area is in somewhat of a cull between the ridge to the north and the trough to the west and one to the east centered over New England. During the late afternoon a weak upper level short wave trough may approach the forecast area from the west. However, there could be a couple of instances of disturbances and cooler/wetter conditions depending on how close to the area certain features move.
With an upper ridge of high pressure to our northwest and an upper low to our east, winds between aloft and the surface will continue to be drying winds between out of the north and east. We continue to be on the outer fringes of an upper low level low pressure system over the northeast CONUS and eastern Canada.
311 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 An upper level low will keep temperatures seasonably cool over much of the week with some isolated showers developing each afternoon. The near term is looking mostly quiet with an upper level low off to the east. Plenty of smoke was sent into the lower atmosphere with the fires in Quebec and that will be moving in behind the front. It is uncertain what depth the smoke is at but at least since there was not any deep plumes of smoke in the visible satellite late yesterday afternoon it was assumed much of the smoke is in the lower atmosphere. Forecast soundings have long skinny CAPE so any reduction in surface instability from the lower solar energy and the smoke warming the mid level lapse rates, widespread shower and thunderstorm activity looks less likely.
Low temperatures will range from the low to mid 60s with light winds.
102 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 An upper level low will move east of New England today with partly to mostly sunny conditions and seasonable temperatures. Another low pressure system and cold front will increase clouds and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday. Clouds forming over the region along the western edge of the circulation around the upper low off New England. Cooler lapse rates will move in during the day.
/12 (Now through Tuesday) A large upper closed low pressure system off the New England coast will lift northward and deepen over Nova Scotia while an upper high pressure system remains stationary over the northern Great Plains and south central Canada. A weak upper trough extending southwest from the large upper low will remain over our region through the near term. High temperatures today and Tuesday will be a little cooler as a result of the increased convective coverage with highs ranging from the mid 80s along the coast to the lower 90s inland.
356 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 An upper level low will keep temperatures seasonably cool over much of the week with some isolated showers developing each afternoon. An Upper level low sits to our East with a cold front dropping in from the North this evening. Despite this, the smoke is expected to be thick enough to block solar radiation keeping temperatures a bit cooler than expected today.
220 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 High pressure builds into the region as low pressure meanders off the New England coast. A cold front will drop southward Tuesday, crossing the area Tuesday night. High pressure gradually builds in through the end of the week as another low spirals off the New England Coast. Temperatures tonight settle in the 50s, with upper 40s in some areas west of the Blue Ridge.
216 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 An upper level low will persist over the New England states through the end of the week keeping our temperatures below normal. Mesoanalysis early this afternoon showed low pressure over far southwest VA with frontal boundary extending west along the TN/KY border.
125 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 An upper level low will persist over the New England states through the end of the week keeping our temperatures below normal. Mesoanalysis early this afternoon showed low pressure over far southwest VA with frontal boundary extending west along the TN/KY border. The broad upper level pattern across the United States is marked by troughing in the southwest, ridging in the central US up through Canada, and troughing in the east as a deep upper low sits over the Northeast.
As the clouds have shifted south early this afternoon, temps have rebounded into the lower 80s away from the lake and a few mid 80s will be possible in the next few hours. Lows tonight should be warmer than last night especially with increasing cloud cover later tonight, generally upper 50s/lower 60s. cms An expansive Omega-type blocking pattern will be present in the mid and upper levels across the CONUS during the period.
Storms pop up and down fairly quickly due to the low shear, although a couple of storms have likely had some hail.
321 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Seasonably cooler and drier air will be here for much of the upcoming week. Highs today will range from the low to mid 70s across the Central and NW two thirds of the CWA, while communities throughout the Susq Valley will likely experience highs in the upper 70s. Min temps tonight will generally be in the low to mid 50s. Behind the departing surface cold front on Tuesday, steepening low-level lapse rates, plenty of dry air aloft to tap, and sinking motion should all lead to rapid surface RH reductions and wind gusts of 15-25 mph in the afternoon. Otherwise, central PA will be on the western periphery of the sphere of influence of an upper low across New England.
(Through Tuesday) As we head into Tuesday, the low to mid-level flow will begin to veer around to the south as high pressure moves to the east. This is where the highest coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected.
1204 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Dry air is being ushered in from the east as high pressure builds over the northern Plains. High temperatures today are forecast to be 2-5 degrees cooler as northeasterly winds drive cooler air into the area. MMG/Glass An Omega Block will set in over the CONUS by mid-week with an expanding upper low over the NE CONUS supporting short wave troughs traversing through the Mid-Mississippi River Valley.
The weather pattern changes little in the short-term with upper ridging encompassing the central CONUS and a trough on either side, one off the New England coast and the other off the coast of CA.
346 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Summary: Cooler temperatures but still mainly dry pattern will continue for the rest of the week. Storms are starting to form over north central Minnesota where instability is greatest behind a slow moving cold front and are expected to move south through this afternoon and evening.
(This evening through Tuesday) A blocking ridge will continue over much of North America today and tomorrow with West Texas placed underneath the riding portion of the block. A short wave ridge will begin building over the area today and shifting more overhead on Tuesday. A very weak trough axis around 700mb is still overhead but remains unclear on what effect this will have on convective chances. There is possibly a hint at a weak MCV on satellite imagery over the Big Country within this trough axis. There may be less coverage on Tuesday with the upper short wave ridge shifting more overhead.
626 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Given upper trough and upper vorticity disturbances rotating around it modulating things, unsettled pattern to continue through tomorrow with typical diurnal cycle of thunderstorm development over land during the day. Tomorrow night will start to transition to a drier but hotter pattern with height rises and an upper ridge building to the west. with the trough shifting east.
(Now through Tuesday) An upper level trough will continue over the eastern third of the CONUS through Tuesday, with mid-upper level northwesterly flow continuing. Weak ridging will continue at the surface.
1007 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 An upper level low will keep temperatures cool over much of the week with some isolated showers developing each afternoon. An Upper level low sits to our East with a cold front dropping in from the North this evening. Despite this, the smoke is expected to be thick enough to block solar radiation keeping temperatures a bit cooler than expected today.
Temperatures have been adjusted a little given that the air is cooler in some locations from the showers that occurred earlier this afternoon/evening. (Through Tuesday) As we head into Tuesday, the low to mid-level flow will begin to veer around to the south as high pressure moves to the east. This is where the highest coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected.
622 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Seasonably cooler and drier air will be here for much of the upcoming week. Min temps tonight will generally be in the low to mid 50s. Behind the departing surface cold front on Tuesday, steepening low-level lapse rates, plenty of dry air aloft to tap, and sinking motion should all lead to rapid surface RH reductions and wind gusts of 15-25 mph in the afternoon. Otherwise, central PA will be on the western periphery of the sphere of influence of an upper low across New England.
This is due to a mid/upper level ridge of high pressure, currently located along the Rockies southward across Mexico, is progged to slowly shift east through Tuesday, bringing drier mid and upper levels across S TX. As the ridge moves east, thunderstorm chances will end from west to east through Tuesday afternoon, leaving Tuesday night quiet weather wise.
A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the island chain, and boaters should expect less clearance under lower fixed bridges, particularly during times of high time. An upper-level trough will remain over the region.
631 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) A blocking ridge will continue over much of North America today and tomorrow with West Texas placed underneath the riding portion of the block. A short wave ridge will begin building over the area today and shifting more overhead on Tuesday. A very weak trough axis around 700mb is still overhead but remains unclear on what effect this will have on convective chances. There is possibly a hint at a weak MCV on satellite imagery over the Big Country within this trough axis. There may be less coverage on Tuesday with the upper short wave ridge shifting more overhead.
751 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Seasonably warm conditions will persist early this week before cooler air builds in for midweek and beyond.
728 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 An upper level low will persist over the New England states through the end of the week keeping our temperatures below normal. Previous Discussion: Mesoanalysis early this afternoon showed low pressure over far southwest VA with frontal boundary extending west along the TN/KY border.
645 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Summary: Cooler temperatures but still mainly dry pattern will continue for the rest of the week. Storms are starting to form over north central Minnesota where instability is greatest behind a slow moving cold front and are expected to move south through this afternoon and evening.
630 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Highlights: 1) Near to just above seasonal temperatures 2) Afternoon chances for showers and storms each day Challenges: Precipitation chances and respective coverage Changes: Tweaked precipitation chances High pressure is anticipated to stay over the Plains with troughs over both east and west coastal areas of the CONUS. The trough over the east coast deepens and tracks west to the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Valley by mid to late week. Highlights: 1) Near seasonal normal temperatures 2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms Changes: Precipitation chances The eastern system continues to move west while the high pressure system tries to hold on but pushes west.
Lows tonight will be near normal, with mid 50s in the east and mid 60s in the west as a cooler and drier airmass begins to push in from the east. The upper air Omega blocking pattern will begin to break down midweek as the low on the east coast deepens and works with the high pressure over the central continent to push cooler air south into the midwest.
The highest chances are expected to stay near southern TAF sites, but there is still a non-zero chance for TPA/PIE. Near-zonal flow remains aloft over the region through the next several days while at the surface, a weak frontal boundary over the area dissipates with high pressure building in behind it. A similar setup will be in place for Tuesday as far as rain chances, but high pressure will bring in slightly lower dew points compared with today.
747 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 (Through Tuesday) As we head into Tuesday, the low to mid-level flow will begin to veer around to the south as high pressure moves to the east. This is where the highest coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected.
508 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 An upper level low will persist over the New England states through the end of the week keeping our temperatures below normal. Previous Discussion: Mesoanalysis early this afternoon showed low pressure over far southwest VA with frontal boundary extending west along the TN/KY border.
815 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will diminish overnight, while a Canadian cold front moves southward into North Central MT on Tuesday morning.
The highest chances are expected to stay near southern TAF sites, but there is still a non-zero chance for TPA/PIE.