Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
318 PM MST Wed Nov 8 2023 The start of a docile weather pattern begins today, with high pressure starting to move eastward, closer to the region. Temperatures across the state today remain near seasonable with central basins seeing highs in the low to mid 40s. West of the Divide and southern parts of the state will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. The remainder of the work week will see high pressure slowly build in over the region.
0-3km shear is around 40 to 50 knots and with some MUCAPE around 250 J/kg, freezing levels around 9,000 feet and an overall cool sounding profile small hail is not out of the question with any thunderstorm.
High pressure to our southeast is allowing moisture influx from southwesterly winds to the Tennessee Valley ahead of a cold front moving into the area tomorrow (more on that in the short term discussion below). As this front approaches and high pressure is forced eastward, pre-frontal cloud cover is forecast to increase overnight.
Highs will easily reach the low to mid 80s under scattered fair weather cumulus clouds. The cold front will enter into northwest Alabama Thursday afternoon, with post-frontal rains attempting to push into the area. However, more sunshine will exist across the southeast counties, and have gone on the higher end of NBM guidance in the lower 80s along and south of the U.
1141 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 Current mesoanalysis shows the cold front oriented SW-NE through southern Oklahoma, Missouri, and Illinois.
200 AM MST Thu Nov 9 2023 High temperatures the next couple days will be cooler and several degrees below normal. Cooler temperatures associated with an incoming trough are expected the next several days across southeast Arizona. This mostly dry system passage will drop highs several degrees below normal today into the weekend, and bring near or potentially below freezing low temperatures to normally colder spots of the eastern valleys. Most ensemble members have the low becoming closed or nearly closed Wednesday/Thursday while still off the west coast, which adds uncertainty to its eastern progression and impacts to southern Arizona weather.
947 PM MST Wed Nov 8 2023 The start of a docile weather pattern begins today, with high pressure starting to move eastward, closer to the region. Temperatures across the state today remain near seasonable with central basins seeing highs in the low to mid 40s. West of the Divide and southern parts of the state will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. The remainder of the work week will see high pressure slowly build in over the region.
Seasonably cool and dry low-level air will prevail the next couple days as high pressure settles over the area.
Would expect temperatures to hover in the teens to low 20s for most locations, and slightly colder for the highest terrain elevations.
126 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 Near normal temperatures and a lack of precipitation are expected to characterize the weekend as an upper trough across the Great Lakes shifts gradually east. -------------------------- [Discussion] -------------------------- After a (near) record setting day of warmth, cooler air from the north is pouring across the Prairie State behind a cold front.
1138 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023 Northwesterly flow will become established overnight in wake of cold frontal passage. Richest low to midlevel thetae punches northward directly in advance of the low within maximized low level convergence. Lapse rates will be moist adiabatic at and just above the level of greatest forced ascent but environmental temperatures profiles in the midlevels are actually on the relative warmer side. So, small hail will be possible but model soundings show very strong stability holding in the lowest 4.
315 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 High pressure will dominate the region today before moving offshore.
334 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 Departing upper ridging and high pressure will keep conditions dry with above normal temperatures today.
A cold frontal passage aided by an 850 mb wind speed maximum is expected to progress eastward through southern Wisconsin late tonight into Thursday morning, which will allow for brisk westerly winds to increase. The low stratus clouds begin to break down from west to east starting midnight tonight, allowing inland temperatures to fall to the mid 30s for an overnight low. Lakeshore areas remain slightly warmer (40 degree low on the Lake Michigan shoreline). Sheppard (Issued 300 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023) Thursday night through Wednesday: Low pressure will continue to exit east into Ontario Thursday night, with a sprawling area of high pressure sinking south through the Plains and Midwest.
Cold front makes passage today, with temperatures cooling closer to seasonal norms and staying there for the remainder of the forecast. At 0730Z, the cold front is moving across the Ohio River and making passage at KPAH.
(Today and tonight) High temperatures will be as much as 20-30 degrees cooler than yesterday for areas generally south of I-40, and 10-20 degrees cooler across the north. The broad upper trough, which is draped across the western CONUS, progresses eastward while the southern stream trough decelerates and becomes out of phase with the northern stream.
(Today) Synoptic scale lift will begin to increase this morning as the upper ridge over the western Atlantic is suppressed by broad troughing over the northern Plains, and a cold front pushes south closer to the area. For that reason, the highest PoPs (70-90%) will be over northwest AL and southern middle TN through the afternoon hours. The increase in cloud cover ahead of the front will keep temperatures largely limited to the low to mid 70s today, with increasing north/northeasterly winds behind the front.
337 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 Low pressure now just to our east quickly tracks across the eastern Great Lakes this morning with a rapid rebound in the MSLP field behind it leading to some breezy conditions across Metro Detroit. Relatively weak cold advection in the wake of the low will mute moisture flux off the lakes, so should be plenty of sun by late in the day. Max temps will come in right around normal in the lower 50s with a breezy west wind gusting to around 30 mph this afternoon.
304 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Key Messages: - Cold front moving through today bringing cooler temperatures. The cold front has taken a slower path through the Ohio Valley this morning and is just now touching our northern border. The cold front will continue to move southeast likely bisecting the region by daybreak. The cold front will continue to move southeast through the region. Behind the front, cooler air and clear skies will quickly move into the northern portion of the CWA. The high temperatures for today will likely occur this morning in these areas. This will help induce isentropic lift over the aforementioned cold front, providing the region with light, stratiform rain through the night. Low temperatures in the morning will be in the low-mid 40s.
High pressure centered over northern Florida will slide slowly eastward into the western North Atlantic and broaden over the next several days. A second area of high pressure will merge with and reinforce this Atlantic high over the weekend.
An upper level trough is centered over northern Minnesota and southern Canada and extends southwest towards Arizona and California. Another push of cooler air will move into the area later today as the upper trough moves slightly eastward.
1043 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) West-southwest flow is in place throughout the column across the region this afternoon with an upper trough digging into the Southwest US. A disturbance rounding the subtropical high will get picked up by the upper trough as it swings trough the Southwest over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, a cold front has been pushing into the TX Panhandle on the heels of a trough moving through the Great Lakes. While this front won't be strong enough to bring freezing temperatures into the region, a whopping 35-40 degree temperature decrease will occur between today and tomorrow's highs.
1147 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 * Very small chance of light showers with the cold frontal passage tonight.
221 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 Key Message: * Gusty westerly winds today up to 35 mph north of I-80 with sporadic gusts up to 40 mph A temporarily tight pressure gradient between high pressure nosing east from the Plains and low pressure near Lake Superior will be the primary mechanism for today's brisk westerly winds.
1129 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 * Slightly cooler temps next few days but still close to seasonal normals. At the surface, cold front extends from north-central MO through far southeast KS and into western OK. Fog burned off later this morning with low clouds still making their way south across the forecast area as cooler air continues to filter south. Northwest flow aloft will then setup by Sun with upper ridging moving-in for the start of the work week.
340 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 A cold front will move southeast across the region today, ushering in a more seasonable airmass for the rest of the week. The cold front has moved into the northwest portions of our area early this morning with an axis of showers along and just ahead of the front. The pcpn will continue to shift off to the east this morning as the cold front moves through the rest of our area.
Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday, but only back to seasonal normals.
835 PM MST Wed Nov 8 2023 Upper level ridging will begin to build into the Northern Rockies tonight and tomorrow, bringing quiet weather to the area for Thursday.
1045 PM MST Wed Nov 8 2023 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Upper level ridging will begin to build into the Northern Rockies tonight and tomorrow, bringing quiet weather to the area for Thursday.
Low pressure center continues to push out of SE Lower Michigan and into the Eastern Great Lakes early this morning. Another low pressure system is currently centered over Western Ontario. with an occluded/cold front extending thru Western Lake Superior and Central Wisconsin into Eastern Iowa and Northern Missouri. Low pressure will steadily track eastward thru Ontario today and then continue thru Quebec tonight. Low temps tonight will cool mainly into the low to mid 30s.
With the light winds and clearing cloud cover, areas generally north of I-70 may cool close to the dewpoints allowing for low temperatures in the low to mid 20's. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecasted to be fairly similar to today with highs in the 50's and 60's with high surface pressure over the area and the southerly portion of the upper trough forecasted to remain over the Desert Southwest. Large scale upper ridge continues to dominate across much of the CONUS this period, with a trough developing along the Pacific coast late in the period.
1040 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 (This evening through Thursday) The main feature in the short term is a cold front moving southeast across the forecast area. Ahead of the front, southwest winds are bringing in dry air resulting in RH values in the lower teens across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas; the main impact being elevated RFTIs. This will clear as the front moves through bringing cooler air behind it. Area- wide, afternoon highs tomorrow will be in the 50s (about 15-30 degrees cooler than today).
101 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 (Through Thursday) High pressure over the region will continue for today through tomorrow. Afternoon temperatures will be in the low 80s with overnight lows in the low to mid-50s.
1051 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Make sure to enjoy the warmer temperatures late this afternoon and tonight, as they will come to an end with the onset of an approaching cold front from the north tonight. Overnight tonight, winds will become breezy again and shift to the north as the cold front tracks through the area into Thursday morning. In the wake of this cold front, rain showers will begin to track into the area Thursday morning and become widespread going into Thursday afternoon. Temperatures overnight tonight are expected to range in the lower 50s to lower 60s, which will also coincide with Thursday's high temperatures for the day.
Low pressure passes to the north tonight with light snow showers possible across the Borderlands.
(Today and Tonight) Much cooler air has pushed into the region behind a cold front which is currently analyzed just to the southeast of the forecast area over the ArkLaTex and continuing south. Looking aloft, there is an upper trough in the southern stream of the westerlies over the Southwest that is shifting east.
/EC/ Deep high pressure will continue to be the story in the near term, keeping warm and dry conditions in place for now. This same high pressure is helping to promote subtle moist return flow and should continue to gradually moisten the column through Thursday. The combination of high pressure and increased moisture has led to dense fog events in recent mornings, and this trend should continue Thursday morning in southeastern areas, as HREF probabilities of visibilities half mile or less are around 40%. Warm temperatures will continue Thursday, especially across central and southern areas ahead of a surface cold front. Rain chances will increase from NW to SE as the surface cold front pushes southeastward across the area.
1018 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) A northwest to southeast oriented cold front is moving through the area this afternoon. Overnight lows will cool off into the 30's, and some lower 40's in the southeast, but none are expected to get below freezing tonight. This trough will bring a surge of cloud cover across the entire CWA.
531 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) A strong cold front is moving through this morning, currently situated just north of the Trans Pecos, and post-frontal winds out of the NE will remain gusty for the next several hours. At the same time, a disturbance is moving up through West Texas, becoming absorbed by a positively tilted upper trough stretching down across the Plains. This trough is responsible for our morning cold front, and as the disturbance moves across, and influx of moisture to the lower and mid levels will combine with decent lift to give stratiform rain/drizzle for much of the region today.
We continue to reside beneath surface and upper level high pressure, keeping conditions quiet over much of the peninsula. Under a mix of sun and clouds, highs will reach into the low/mid 80s once again today, which is a bit above normal for the time of year.
A ridge of high pressure will be over the region today. This ridge will allow for the development of patchy fog this morning especially across Clearwater and Idaho counties and up into northwest Montana. A cold front will push across the region on Friday bringing widespread light precipitation.
514 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 (Today and tonight) High temperatures will be as much as 20-30 degrees cooler than yesterday for areas generally south of I-40, and 10-20 degrees cooler across the north. The broad upper trough, which is draped across the western CONUS, progresses eastward while the southern stream trough decelerates and becomes out of phase with the northern stream.
Satellite imagery shows the wrap around snow on the backside of this low entering our area from the north this morning. Thoughts for the higher snow totals on the Minnesota side include longer residence time of the snow bands as they move out of the area. Key Messages: 1) Ridging aloft leaves little opportunity for impactful weather.
Highs today will range from the low 70s across the Delta to the low 80s across the south. Much cooler air will move in behind the boundary overnight, with lows in the upper 40s to near 50 across the Delta, to the low 60s in the Pine Belt.
525 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 Near normal temperatures and a lack of precipitation are expected to characterize the weekend as an upper trough across the Great Lakes shifts gradually east. -------------------------- [Discussion] -------------------------- After a (near) record setting day of warmth, cooler air from the north is pouring across the Prairie State behind a cold front.
524 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 (Today through Friday night) Model agreement continues to see the Panhandles cool down behind the cold frontal passage yesterday afternoon. Look for temperatures temperatures to drop into the mid 30s to low 40s by the early morning hours with a couple of our northern locations near freezing. As we get further into the morning, models are still expecting a lee-side trough to pass across the Panhandles and bring in some moisture into the area. Heading into Friday, conditions look to stay cool as models expected the trough that developed over the inter-mountain west to finally pass through the Panhandles. While initial looks expect this trough to mainly be a dry passage for the area, there are a few models that are showing enough moisture to potentially create some showers off the western mountain of New Mexico.
Cold front moves across the region this evening with overrunning bringing light rain to the area tonight into Friday. With dry air and low to mid-level ridging in place ahead of the front, very little showery precipitation is expected to develop. As this cold front moves across the region, we'll see surface winds shift to the north later this evening with mid-level winds remaining out of the southwest.
A cold front was moving south across west central Texas this morning and currently located near a Mertzon to San Angelo to Brownwood line. The cold front will be south of our area by 12Z this morning.
The general pattern, a low pressure system moving south from the Gulf of Alaska and over the Pacific Ocean, is generally accepted by various guidance.
830 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 Scattered showers this morning will be followed by dry conditions and cooler temperatures through the weekend. Latest surface analysis shows the cold front crossing the region this morning currently draped along a line running roughly from Dubois to Zanesville. Dry conditions will be in place across the forecast area by this afternoon with the front east of the ridges. Early this morning there were observations showing temperatures in the lower 70s across SE Ohio. This evening through a majority of early Friday morning will stay dry and quiet in the wake of the cold front. With weak cold advection aloft temperatures overnight will likely stay above average, in the low 40s to upper 30s. Increase subsidence in the mid-lvls will diminish any remaining precipitation in the ridges of West Virginia by 3pm.
316 AM PST Thu Nov 9 2023 Near normal conditions will extend into the weekend over the forecast area as an upper level ridge remains present aloft. A relatively weak ridge aloft will keep temperatures over the region near normal continuing into the weekend.
The highest chances will be for east coast areas where the strongest coastal convergence occurs, but that region will still not see PoPs over 10-20% either.
Mostly clear skies are in place this morning following the passage of a cold front yesterday. Elevated fire weather conditions may develop in response to the low RH and gusty winds, despite temperatures near 50. Cooler air will arrive Friday with clouds fairly widespread.
Cold air will continue to filter into the region for the next day or so, fueled by troughing over the Upper Midwest and a weak trough backbuilding over Arizona. The weak trough over eastern Arizona may lead to a few, high-based rain or snow showers in the next 36 hours or so, impacts should be minimal.
455 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 (Today and Tonight) Much cooler air has pushed into the region behind a cold front which is currently analyzed just to the southeast of the forecast area over the ArkLaTex and continuing south. Looking aloft, there is an upper trough in the southern stream of the westerlies over the Southwest that is shifting east. The forecast will lean toward some of the cooler guidance.
Rain chances are expected to gradually return to the Mid-South today as a cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Much cooler air will return behind this front with temperatures falling back into the 40s tonight and highs on Friday struggling to reach 60 degrees.
Daytime high temperatures will climb to the low to 80s, and winds will be from the east at 10 to 15 mph. An area of high pressure centered near northern Florida will gradually slide eastward into the western North Atlantic waters. A second high pressure will merge with the high in the North Atlantic waters this weekend.
Winds are light/variable with high pressure building into the area, and temperatures are currently ranging mainly in the lower to mid 30s.
A cold front will pass through the northern half of the area by the afternoon and then progress southward through the area by mid day on Friday. Increasing clouds will keep temperatures on the cooler side in the north, but the southeast may still warm up into the upper 70s to low 80s, once the fog clears later this morning. Will need to monitor trends as the excess cloud cover may keep temperatures several degrees warmer here.
These wrap around showers are from an upper level low over Ontario. The upper level low that brought windy conditions to the region continues to move slowly across Ontario. High temperatures will cool off into the lower 30s north to lower 40s south as a cooler air mass sags into the Northern Plains. Friday high temperatures will struggle to warm into the 30s for the northeast while the southwest will warm into the lower 40s. Broad troughing over the Great Lakes will push into the Northeast opening the door for a weak upper level ridge to traverse across the Canadian Plains.
There are still low clouds and probably some flurries clinging to the mountain ridges and over the rest of Park county. The jet forcing will continue to drop south this morning while the ridgetop clouds should dissipate by midday as much drier air moves in from the west. With light winds tending towards the northeast on the plains, there won't be much moderation in temperatures today, just a few degrees warmer. Colorado will be under the influence of a weak upper level trough of low pressure Friday and Friday night.
Northwest flow continues over the CWA with a ridge off to our west. By this afternoon, winds at 850mb will still range from 25- 35kts at 18Z with the highest speeds over the eastern CWA. EC indicates weak CAA of -3 to -6C/12 hours across our eastern CWA this afternoon along with steep pressure gradients bend a few degrees warmer in temps for Friday. tween the high and low. Winds will diminish west to east as the high pressure moves into the area and gustier winds aloft move east/northeast. Overnight lows look to range in the 20s and a few degrees cooler for Friday.
639 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023 A cold front will move southeast across the region today, ushering in a more seasonable airmass for the rest of the week. The cold front has moved into the northwest portions of our area early this morning with an axis of showers along and just ahead of the front. The pcpn will continue to shift off to the east this morning as the cold front moves through the rest of our area. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 40s with highs on Friday mostly in the mid 50s. This high will provide mostly sunny skies and cool temperatures. Mid-level ridging over the Rocky Mountains will shift east into the High Plains to start the week.
608 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023 (Today) Synoptic scale lift will begin to increase this morning as the upper ridge over the western Atlantic is suppressed by broad troughing over the northern Plains, and a cold front pushes south closer to the area. For that reason, the highest PoPs (70-90%) will be over northwest AL and southern middle TN through the afternoon hours. The increase in cloud cover ahead of the front will keep temperatures largely limited to the low to mid 70s today, with increasing north/northeasterly winds behind the front.