Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Sunday will be warmer than Saturday and feel a bit more humid.
1045 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Upper level high pressure will build into the region through mid week, leading to mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. A broad, anomalously strong upper level high over the central US will build eastward through the day on Sunday with heights continuing to rise across our area. This will lead to dry conditions, along with a continued warming trend with highs on Sunday ranging from the upper 80s north to the lower 90s south. Dry conditions will continue Sunday night as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest late.
727 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure builds south of the area tonight, and over the Atlantic on Sunday.
304 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Much cooler temperatures remain in store across the region this weekend in the wake of this morning's cold front.
736 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Quiet conditions will continue across eastern Kentucky this evening and into the overnight as high pressure continues to dominate the area. Temps are beginning to drop and signs of another ridge to valley split are showing up in the observations. Above normal temperatures are on tap for Sunday, as further drying occurs and high pressure strengthens over the region.
541 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure will continue to build across the region this evening, providing dry and comfortable conditions tonight, and a dry and warm finish to the weekend.
1041 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure builds south of the area tonight, and over the Atlantic on Sunday.
Clouds have cleared for the most part, but it is expected to be warm overnight with most of the area in the lower to mid 70s. HOT and DRY! A large strengthening 597dam high pressure centered over the Southern Plains has expanded across the ArkLaTex to the ArkLaMiss region. The high will continue to dominate our area and is expected to get even stronger (600dam) over the next day or so. High temperatures for Sunday will range from the upper 90s to the lower 100s. A strong high pressure system expanding across the Southern Plains, Mid-West, and Lower Mississippi Valley regions will dominate through the foreseeable future.
WV imagery indicates a broad upper level area of high pressure locked in across the Central Plains. Hot and stagnant conditions are likely through the period as a broad upper level ridge of high pressure remains situated across the Central Plains and much of the Western High Plains. Prevailing south-southwesterlies south of a frontal boundary lifting back north into western Nebraska will reinforce a much warmer air mass already settled across the region.
302 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure, dry weather, and a warming temperature trend are expected through Monday.
1245 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 The week ahead is looking generally dry and warm as high pressure will dominate much of the country. Monday will remain dry, and temperatures continue to warm as the high pressure centered over the central CONUS builds east into the local area and our winds shift to more southerly.
(Today through Monday afternoon) Today should be a near carbon-copy of yesterday's weather with the only change in the synoptic pattern being a very slight eastward nudge of the ridge. 5-1 C cooler and high temperatures will be a degree or so cooler than yesterday. Continued dry low/mid levels keeps the region dry today, but persistent easterly flow supplied by the ridge gradually moistens the column by Monday. High-resolution guidance develops afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily across the higher terrain but a few storms across the basin cannot be ruled out.
(Today) Clear, calm, and dry conditions continue early this morning as a broad, dominant area of high pressure to our northwest remains in control of the weather across the Tennessee Valley and the Deep South. This ridge will amplify today and the combination of ample sunshine/heating, virtually no cloud cover, and light SE/SSE flow will help to push highs about 3-5 degrees higher than yesterday. This will place our high temperatures in the low to mid 90s in most locations.
/Issued 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023/ /Through Monday/ The 500 mb ridge centered over the Southern Plains will continue to provide extreme heat across the region as its heights rise to an impressive 600 decameters on Sunday.
As a subtropical mid-level ridge remains centered over the central/southern Plains, excessive heat will continue for much of the area. RH values will be in the low teens, with fuels above the 90th percentile.
Hot conditions persist even at the 02Z hour with much of E TX/N LA still in the lower to mid 90s, with only limited cooling expected overnight despite the weak pressure gradient and mostly clear sky.
The upper level high is centered over the region along. Early morning temperatures are currently in the middle to upper 70s with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. Dewpoints will again generally be in the 70s this afternoon across much off the area but near the Highway 54 corridor right behind the surface boundary slightly low dewpoints with values in the upper 60s are possible few a few hours this afternoon. The upper level high will remain centered over the region for much of this week and will control the weather pattern.
415 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 The week ahead is looking generally dry and warm as high pressure will dominate much of the country. Monday will remain dry, and temperatures continue to warm as the high pressure centered over the central CONUS builds east into the local area and our winds shift to more southerly.
This high has further strengthened since last night and shifted slightly to the northeast. Models remain in good agreement that the high will continue strengthening through tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a 1021mb high centered over the Appalachians that will continue ridging back across the Gulf coast states. This ridging surface and aloft will help maintain near full insolation again today of our warm airmass sending afternoon highs back above 100F over all except out north and northeast zones.
It's also been a much cooler night than we've experienced the past few days, with temperatures hovering in the 50s as of 1 AM. Although the low-level jet shifts through today, areas west and north of Billings will still see surges of moisture from the southwest (monsoonal moisture pushed in from Hurricane Hilary) and the moisture brought in from the plains. While the surge of moisture from the southwest CONUS continues into Monday, the anomalously large ridge over the central CONUS continues to build westward and keeps much of that moisture and additional rain potential west of south-central and southeast MT. Vertz Massive ridge of high pressure over the central U.
Another seasonably warm day is expected Monday, however a cold front moving across the region could spark a few afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Upper level high pressure centered over Kansas and Oklahoma will shift a little farther to the north tonight and Sunday. Meanwhile, subsidence under the ridge combined with continued dry lower to mid levels support PoPs near zero.
WV imagery indicates a broad upper level area of high pressure locked in across the Central Plains. Hot and stagnant conditions are likely through the period as a broad upper level ridge of high pressure remains situated across the Central Plains and much of the Western High Plains. Prevailing south-southwesterlies south of a frontal boundary lifting back north into western Nebraska will reinforce a much warmer air mass already settled across the region. A prevailing hot/dry pattern is likely through the middle part of the week as medium range ensembles show a broad upper level high dominating the Central Plains into the Western High Plains.
324 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure persists this weekend. Blocking high pressure increases the heat and humidity into the new work week. Dry weather conditions continue as an upper level ridge remains in control. * High pressure remains in play with dry weather and a warming trend. Broad H600 MB center of high pressure remains parked over the Central Midwest/Great Plains, where oppressive heat will infiltrate this part of the CONUS.
1215 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (The rest of tonight) Dome of high pressure remained common across the Southern and Central Plains this evening. mostly clear to some passing high clouds underneath the strong ridge of high pressure are expected to continue across the CWA.
While wind observations are contaminated by convective activity, the pressure gradient has tightened up between an Atlantic ridge and the trough. Through the first half of the week, the trough will continue to push further away from the Keys. While the best confluence and moisture will move off with the departing trough, there will continue to be sufficient flux and summer time moisture to maintain near to slightly above normal rain chances. Winds, however, will trend upwards over the next 24 hours and linger over the following couple of days due to the pressure gradient across our area remaining fairly tight between an Atlantic ridge and the departing trough.
Southerly lower-level flow into the Great Lakes is ushering in a much warmer airmass, with temperatures well into the 70s across most of the UP. Temperatures drop back into the lower to mid 60s. Key Messages: -Cooler and dry Sunday -Band of rain expected early in the week -Sporadic rain chances through midweek -Ridge eventually retreats south, NW flow pattern expected to follow With the aforementioned front having fully passed by Sunday, flow turns northwesterly and Sunday should be a cooler day than the previous day. Going into the week, the southern ridge continues to build northward, but we remain on the northern periphery. The first chances would be later Monday with a ribbon of positive vorticity draped atop the ridge among most of the guidance.
Expect high temps this aftn to be a few degrees warmer in most areas, with resultant heat indices ranging fm 105 to 115.
247 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: A large area of hot high pressure currently extends from the Four Corners to the southern and central Plains. Zonal flow exists along the International Border with a series of small synoptic troughs and ridges north of this set up over the western half of Canada. Today through Monday morning: Pattern is bring monsoonal moisture across the region this morning which is combining with the cooler air from yesterday to form a more slow stratiform rain band across the southern half of the CWA.
The highest chance for an isolated strong thunderstorm will be over north central Florida, where the sea breeze boundaries interact. With less cloud coverage and rain, temperatures will rise up to the mid 90s inland, a few degrees above normal, weak onshore flow will keep the east coast in the lower 90s.
413 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 A weak cold front will move southeast across the area on Monday, with high pressure returning behind it through midweek.
323 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Upper level high pressure will build into the region through mid week, leading to mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. Strong mid level ridge centered over the central Plains will continue to build east into the Ohio Valley today, marked by rising geopotential heights in the mid troposphere. Flow rotating around the high will allow for a few mid clouds along with perhaps some diurnal cumulus clouds. After lows in the 65 to 70 degree range, highs will be a little warmer on Monday but still generally upper 80s north to the lower 90s south.
202 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure persists this weekend. Blocking high pressure increases the heat and humidity into the new work week. The forecast is otherwise on track, with high pressure large and in charge. A ridge over the region persists through Sunday afternoon keeping conditions dry. * High pressure remains in play with dry weather and a warming trend. Broad H600 MB center of high pressure remains parked over the Central Midwest/Great Plains, where oppressive heat will infiltrate this part of the CONUS.
434 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure slides offshore today. A cold front approaches early Monday and moves through early Monday night.
1028 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 A sprawling mid/upper level ridge of high pressure will keep relentless heat across the Central Plains through much of the upcoming week. The pattern will look very similar as we move into the middle of the week with a sprawling mid/upper level ridge meandering over the central CONUS. This may help steer some cooler air into the region as we move into the weekend with highs on Sat possibly remaining closer to averages for late Aug.
146 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure builds south of the area tonight, and over the Atlantic on Sunday. A cold front approaches Monday and moves through Monday night.
Moisture associated with out flow from Hilary is running into a ridge centered of the central U.
1018 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Clouds should slowly fill in overnight from the moisture field of the approaching tropical cyclone Hilary, in the Pacific. We could see some precipitation from this shooting over the ridge and into our area, but rain chances remain overall unimpressive. Smoke continues to filter in from Canada this evening along and behind a cold front. Key Messages -Decreasing winds this evening -Some smoke effects will continue -Cooler Sunday with minimal precipitation chances As of 2 pm winds were still pretty light across portions of our far southeast FA, with steady northwest winds elsewhere. This may only last for a few hours, while the high level smoke looks to linger into Sunday and Sunday night. Otherwise the FA will see noticeably cooler temperatures Sunday (around 20 degrees or so).
440 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure slides offshore today. A cold front approaches early Monday and moves through early Monday night.
Upper level high centered over the Central Plains will slowly drift north over the next 24 hours. An upper level high will remain centered over the central US thru Tue. By Wed, latest data shows an increase in monsoon moisture affecting the higher terrain which will lead to a chc of aftn tstms. Thus, should see an increasing tstm coverage over the higher terrain with some activity over portions of nern CO as well. Meanwhile, a cold front is fcst to move across nern CO Thu night into Fri. This front will finally bring cooler temps and may enhance tstm development on Fri.
A 600dm upper level ridge will become established over KS/MO today.
138 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Upper level high pressure will build into the region through mid week, leading to mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. A broad, anomalously strong upper level high over the central US will build eastward through the day on Sunday with heights continuing to rise across our area. This will lead to dry conditions, along with a continued warming trend with highs on Sunday ranging from the upper 80s north to the lower 90s south. Dry conditions will continue Sunday night as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest late. The cold front will push south across our area on Monday as it slowly washes out. Despite some weak low level forcing associated with the front, ridging aloft should help keep us capped, with dry conditions expected.
Temperatures are in the high 50s to low 60s with winds out of the north. Upper level high pressure from the southern plains continues to move north and into the NE/IA area. As for today, expect much cooler temperatures as winds are from the north.
Discussion: Dry weather continues as a strong ridge remains anchored over the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. as high pressure drifts into the Atlantic. With ridging overhead and sunny skies, highs this afternoon will be hot and slightly above normal in the upper 80s and lower 90s in the Valley.
Large upper high with disgusting 600+ dm 500mb heights centered over the central CONUS will remain in place as it builds in size and maintaining subsidence in the SE states including Georgia.
Quiet conditions will continue across eastern Kentucky this evening and into the overnight as high pressure continues to dominate the area. Temps are beginning to drop and signs of another ridge to valley split are showing up in the observations. Above normal temperatures are on tap for Sunday, as further drying occurs and high pressure strengthens over the region.
1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Rest of tonight) High pressure continues to keep dry conditions in place through the overnight hours, with mostly clear skies and light easterly winds expected.
Combined with 1000+ j/kg of SBCAPE, steep lapse rates, and 20 to 40 kts of effective bulk shear, we have isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms firing off the high terrain.
103 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues this afternoon and tomorrow As the upper-level ridge slowly moves eastward tonight into tomorrow, subsidence will gradually decrease as the mid level winds become more easterly.
(Today and tonight) A persistence forecast is in store for a persistent synoptic pattern of high pressure continuing to drive our regional ambient weather conditions. The biggest difference for today from recent days is a steadier and more pronounced southeast surface wind regime advecting a modest amount of boundary layer moisture, noted by more widespread surface dewpoints in the low to mid 50s, helping to lower max temperatures slightly. The higher dewpoints will in turn, result in a slightly more mild overnight, but barely noticeable from what we've been already experiencing.
944 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Broad upper ridging covers much of the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front is sliding through the northern plains, resulting in some breezy NW winds across the western SD plains. Temperatures Sunday will be tricky and will depend on how quickly the cool high pressure moves in behind today's cold front. Cooler temperatures will be more likely farther north. Besides lowering highs for Sunday, the incoming high pressure will also push near-surface smoke southward into the Black Hills region Sunday. Upper ridging will then dominate the weather pattern through midweek, with temperatures warming back into the 90s and 100s.
(Today through Monday night) High pressure will gradually shift east for the short term and we will start to see a bit of a cool down on temperatures, and by cool down we mean a few degrees, as we will still be under the influence of the large scale high.
(Today) The heat continues today under an expansive upper ridge settled over much of the center of the country. Went mostly with a persistence forecast for today, with highs possibly a degree or two warmer than yesterday, and dewpoints hanging in the mid to upper 70s across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas within the heaviest rain footprint from the last couple of weeks.
/NEW/ /Through Monday/ The 500 mb ridge centered over the Southern Plains will continue to provide extreme heat across the region as its heights rise to an impressive 600 decameters on Sunday.
329 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure persists this weekend. Blocking high pressure increases the heat and humidity through much of the work week. Dry weather conditions continue as an upper level ridge remains in control. The heat cranks back up this week in response to a stout upper level ridge parked over the heart of the country. Slight adjustments of the ridge to the north and east during the start of the work week will promote height rises and a stronger influence for dry weather and hotter temperatures.
320 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the central and southern plains with troughing on the west coast and New England. Key Messages: -Cooler and dry Sunday -Band of rain expected early in the week -Sporadic rain chances through midweek -Ridge eventually retreats south, NW flow pattern expected to follow With the aforementioned front having fully passed by Sunday, flow turns northwesterly and Sunday should be a cooler day than the previous day. Going into the week, the southern ridge continues to build northward, but we remain on the northern periphery. The first chances would be later Monday with a ribbon of positive vorticity draped atop the ridge among most of the guidance.
(Today through Monday) A large dome of high pressure over the southern CONUS will keep deeper moisture suppressed southward over the Gulf of Mexico.
Advertised heat wave has arrived as the center of the upper ridge advects out of central Oklahoma and strengthens into the vicinity of Kansas City Sunday afternoon. Winds to veer overnight as high pressure slides across the area while to the north a weakening front sinks southward. The upper ridge will extend impressively from the Gulf Coast to well into central Canada and the Rockies to off the east coast on Monday. and remain in control of the pattern through week before model consensus is for a long wave moving across Canada to dig into the Great Lakes enough to drive a cold front toward the Ozarks late in the week.
Cooler than normal temperatures today and Monday then warming to above normal to close out the week.
Impacts today will be much cooler temps and possible light rain amounts. WRT to temps, cloudy skies and weak CAA will cause temps to be much cooler today, 15 to 20 degrees below yesterdays highs. This cooler airmass and the lack of instability lend towards a rather weak system today. 00Z HREF probability matched mean paints a tenth of an inch or less along the highway 200 to I94 corridor through the afternoon.
638 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure persists this weekend. Blocking high pressure increases the heat and humidity through much of the work week. Dry weather conditions continue as an upper level ridge remains in control. The heat cranks back up this week in response to a stout upper level ridge parked over the heart of the country. Slight adjustments of the ridge to the north and east during the start of the work week will promote height rises and a stronger influence for dry weather and hotter temperatures.
628 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (Today through Monday afternoon) Today should be a near carbon-copy of yesterday's weather with the only change in the synoptic pattern being a very slight eastward nudge of the ridge. 5-1 C cooler and high temperatures will be a degree or so cooler than yesterday. Continued dry low/mid levels keeps the region dry today, but persistent easterly flow supplied by the ridge gradually moistens the column by Monday. High-resolution guidance develops afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily across the higher terrain but a few storms across the basin cannot be ruled out.
934 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Upper level high pressure will build into the region through mid week, leading to mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. Mid level ridge over the central Plains will continue to build into our region form the west today. After lows in the 65 to 70 degree range, highs will be a little warmer on Monday but still generally upper 80s north to the lower 90s south.
527 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2023 The forecast area remains on the western periphery on an expansive high pressure centered over the central US. This high is currently advecting dry air into the region. This along with strong midlevel capping will limit afternoon convection, although a stray shower is possible on the higher terrain. The drier air mass, warmer temperatures and wind may cause localized critical fire weather in the lower elevations. This moisture appears sufficient enough for isolated showers in the higher terrain. The higher chances for showers will be in the San Juans and portions of eastern Utah.
Current surface analysis places trough/frontal boundary stretching though the upper midwest into the central plains, while high remains over southern Manitoba/Alberta. Upper level analysis places broad high over the southern/central plains into the lower midwest. Our area remains to the north of the high with west/southwest flow and a variety of modest short waves pushing through.