Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
527 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 An approaching system over the Canadian Rockies will plow into and temporarily deform the northern apex of the strong ridge of high pressure aloft. The mid level thermal ridge ahead of this feature should allow for both a good amount of heating and mixing today. Temperatures today should not be inhibited too much by the high cloudiness and reach or exceed those of yesterday by a degree or two in most areas. Slightly cooler air aloft in the wake of the system should drop high temperatures several degrees in all but the far Southwest part of the CWA on Wednesday. However cooler this may be.
Observed minimum temperatures just before sunrise range from the lower 50s in interior regions to the upper 50s and lower 60s in metro and coastal areas.
High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 60s, with the highest values occurring where sunshine will be most prevalent. Skies will be mostly clear tonight, with low temperatures dipping into the lower 40s. The daytime hours Wednesday will see warmer temperatures still. Low temperatures will dip into the lower 50s.
This week, temperatures will remain about 10 degrees above seasonal averages thanks to a Pacific ridge of high pressure. This weekend, a short wave trough will drop temperatures and bring gusty winds to the Desert Southwest. This will be the start of a cooler, windier pattern change for the region.
(Now through Wednesday) A large trough along the east coast will continue to move east tonight. The flow aloft becomes increasingly zonal by Wednesday afternoon, which along with a developing light southerly flow, will allow temps to climb into the low to mid 70s in many areas. Clear skies will continue through the period which will allow strong radiational cooling again tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s inland to mid 50s along the coast.
(This evening through Wednesday) High pressure will be over the area through the short term with dry weather expected. This will begin to advect moisture and warmer air back into the area. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, a few degrees below normal for this time of year, but a few degrees warmer than the high expected today.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) High pressure ridge axis is roughly from KMFE to KRKP, out over the Gulf to KHUM. As the High continues to move to the east tonight, the winds will gradually shift east and continue to veer to the south by Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be a bit warmer tonight, Wednesday, and Wednesday night as the south to southeast flow continues, to bring in a warmer air mass.
Current readings are all in the low to mid 60s at 11 amCDT. The winds will begin to stir by lunch with high temps more likely in the low to mid 70s this afternoon.
123 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 A trough will remain over the region through tonight.
Ahead of the front, south and east of the KC area, temperatures should climb into the low to mid 70s. Also, limited cold advection behind the front and clouds moving south, may allow far northeastern KS and northwestern MO to rebound into the lower 70s. A more amplified upper-level pattern evolves late this week into the weekend with both the GEFS and ECMWF Ens showing anomalously strong ridging over the west and anomalously strong troughing over the east. Our area remains in the middle with increasing influence from the western ridge.
1220 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 A broad ridge will continue to build into the Mid-South today and filter in cool and dry air from the north. Highs are expected to be slightly warmer than yesterday with values ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon areawide. High pressure will remain over the region for the next couple of days.
1230 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 A trough will remain over the region through tonight.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Fairly benign weather expected across the local area through mid week as upper level through already east of the CWA continues moving east and weak ridge/zonal flow passes across the northern Gulf Coast.
Ahead of the front, a pre-frontal trough will turn our winds out of the southwest.
A pattern shift is expected late weekend into next work week with cooler temperatures, precipitation chances, and windier days. Temperatures are near or setting daily records and will continue to do so with a new ridge setting up over the area through the remainder of the work week. The cooler weather with returning widespread moisture will result in the need to monitor for more than one precipitation type, if you catch my drift.
Tomorrow, broad high pressure starts building in from the west. Winds will be a bit more northerly and will bring some cooler temps to northern portions of the forecast area, but these values will still be above climatological normals for mid- October. Dry and warmer conditions will continue through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure amplifies across the west.
Low temperatures are forecast on the low side of guidance and incorporate some MOS as those tend to handle radiational cooling events a bit better. A gradual warming and moistening trend is expected to kick off tomorrow with highs warming into the low to mid 70s across much of the area.
A slow pattern change has set into motion with an upper low exiting east and a ridge building across from the plains. Low/mid level clouds are trapped under the stability of the approaching ridge. Fog improvement should occur around sunrise, with clouds persisting through Wednesday morning before breaking up during the afternoon when the upper level ridge axis approaches OH, KY and WV. Temperatures tonight will be touch cooler then warm into the mid 60s across the lowlands, with slightly cooler temperatures in the 50s along the mountains.
The stage is set for this High Wind and Red Flag Event. ---BMickelson Previous discussion: Cold front will move through eastern Montana this morning with an upper trough/low following it this afternoon and evening. The remainder of the High Wind Warning area has a 50-90 percent chance of reaching warning criteria today. Models have increased the probability of rain showers today and this evening as they have deepened the upper trough/low compared to earlier forecasts. Convective showers may also produce downbursts where wind gusts reach 60+ mph especially in the High Wind Warning area. The trough/low moves to the east late tonight which will diminish the winds and end the chance of rain showers.
Discussion: Visible satellite imagery this morning showed some persistent river valley fog along the Mississippi River from Dubuque, IA to Fulton, IL along with high clouds over northern IL keeping temperatures slightly warmer and frost free prior to 15z. Elsewhere, morning lows dropped into the lower to middle 30s. After a rather chilly start this AM, temperatures have rebounded nicely into the lower 60s thanks in part to our dry ground and sunny skies. Forecast soundings show slightly higher mixing depths compared to yesterday for this afternoon yielding highs a few degrees warmer with readings in middle to upper 60s area-wide. Increasing clouds and WAA tonight will keep temperatures warmer, with readings in the 40s.
(The rest of today) Strong radiational cooling this morning allowed temperatures to drop into the lower 30s across many location in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with areas of frost common in these areas as well. A few observation sites dropped below freezing for a brief period as well this morning. This will aid in pushing temperatures into the low to mid 70s across much of eastern Oklahoma, with highs holding slightly cooler, into the mid to upper 60s, across northwest Arkansas this afternoon.
1243 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (Today through Wednesday) With a high amplitude upper level ridge to our west and deep trough to the east the flow over Texas is from the north-northwest.
The day started on the cool side with some patchy frost and even a reading near the freezing mark in the eastern Ozarks. The high pressure that brought this quiet weather was moving to the south and east today. As an upper trough/low, begins to move into the northern plains, the surface pressure gradient will begin to tighten allowing surface winds to become gusty by Wednesday morning. The upper low will then continue moving to the southeast towards the southern Great Lakes region through the day Wednesday. The southerly surface winds and more sun will allow afternoon highs to climb into the lower to middle 70s. The upper level will drag a cold front through the Ozarks region Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. High pressure over the region will shift south and east through this evening.
Tonight skies will be mostly clear with low temperatures dropping down to the lower to mid 40s throughout the CWA.
1140 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 An approaching system over the Canadian Rockies will plow into and temporarily deform the northern apex of the strong ridge of high pressure aloft. The mid level thermal ridge ahead of this feature should allow for both a good amount of heating and mixing today. Temperatures today should not be inhibited too much by the high cloudiness and reach or exceed those of yesterday by a degree or two in most areas. Slightly cooler air aloft in the wake of the system should drop high temperatures several degrees in all but the far Southwest part of the CWA on Wednesday. However cooler this may be.
Tonight temperatures will be slightly warmer in the 50s area-wide as southwest surface flow continues to bring warm air into the region.
Clear western locations have warmed to the upper 60s while cloudy eastern locations remain in the lower 60s. Winds will be light, with lows in the lower half of the 40s. Low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest, strengthening the pressure gradient which will result in breezy winds for the afternoon as 10-15 mph winds gust to 15-20 mph. Warm advection lifts highs to the lower half of the 70s. Models agree on a weakening boundary moving into the area Wednesday night with shower potential trending weaker, largely thanks to dry air in the lowest few km.
Then push east across the rest of the lower elevations in the afternoon. Precip chances will be low (below 20%) for the western half of the region, with the highest likelihood of precip out east (20-40%). With ridging building back in Wednesday, a warm, breezy day is expected with temps only slightly cooling. TS Upper level ridging will persist through the work week, with dry conditions and temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
128 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 A large upper level low pressure system will remain over the northeastern United States tonight. High pressure builds in midweek with moderating temperatures afterwards.
1254 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (Today through Wednesday night) It has been a bit warmer this morning than 24 hours ago as temperatures have remained about 10 degrees warmer, with no concern for frost or freeze. Today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday as highs look to top out in the lower 80s.
As ridging continues to build on Wednesday and for a few days beyond, expect daytime highs to gradually creep up a few degrees each day.
1140 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (Today through Wednesday) The short term forecast is going to be a cooler forecast as it will feature temperatures that are a bit cooler than what we have experienced in a long time. Then moving into tonight, low temperatures are expected to be in mostly in the 50s, however, the lows in the Lower Rio Grande Valley are expected to be in the low 60s instead. While a mid-level ridge aloft will have some influence on the region, this mid-level ridge is expected to be weakened as a trough moves over the mid-west.
258 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Warmer temperatures along with breezy south winds are forecast for Wednesday.
The region for the higher rainfall totals will be heavily tied to the location of the pivot point with this system once we see the shift occur. The upper flow pattern will be dominated by large scale ridging.
141 PM PDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Warmer and dry conditions through the rest of the work week.
This southerly flow and a ridge axis across the Southwest allows temperatures to surge into the 80s today. These warmer highs and continued south winds hold low temperatures in the 50s for most.
1220 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (The rest of today) Strong radiational cooling this morning allowed temperatures to drop into the lower 30s across many location in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with areas of frost common in these areas as well. A few observation sites dropped below freezing for a brief period as well this morning. This will aid in pushing temperatures into the low to mid 70s across much of eastern Oklahoma, with highs holding slightly cooler, into the mid to upper 60s, across northwest Arkansas this afternoon.
1224 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 High pressure will build down from the northwest today.
1212 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge axis will move more squarely overhead today resulting in a rise in thickness values and thus temperatures. At the same time, an upper level short wave trough will be dropping to the east-southeast from British Columbia into the northern Plains. This will result in surface cyclogenesis and pressure troughing in lee of the Rockies. As a result, the surface pressure gradient will tighten up leading to an increase in surface winds into the low-end of the breezy category. The combination of the increasing heights and stronger southwesterly downsloping winds will lead to a much warmer afternoon.
(This evening through Wednesday) An weak upper-level ridging will remain in place across the area through Wednesday, with light southerly flow persisting at the surface through Wednesday morning. Given the sunny conditions today and continued southerly flow into tonight, we should see slightly warmer overnight lows ranging from the lower 40 to lower 50s. There is a chance for some breezier conditions to mix down overnight and into Wednesday morning as a very weak upper-level disturbance tracks through the area ahead of a weak cold front that passes through West Central Texas later on Wednesday.
Southerly flow will offer warmer temperatures and dry daytime conditions Wednesday.
A deep upper level system will enter the upper midwest and bring a trough across the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure over the region will shift south and east through this evening.
Tomorrow, broad high pressure starts building in from the west. Winds will be a bit more northerly and will bring some cooler temps to northern portions of the forecast area, but these values will still be above climatological normals for mid- October. Meanwhile, in the wake of the trough, a large and anomalously strong ridge will amplify and build into the Great Basin. This ridge will then slowly translate eastward through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
113 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Current water vapor and upper air analysis shows upper low over north central MT. Westerly flow sits aloft our region, with mild ridging east of the forecast area. Temperatures sit at the low to mid 70s for most of the region this afternoon. Later tonight into Wednesday the upper trough and associated surface frontal boundary slides southeastward through our region.
1216 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (Rest of Today) Surface analysis this morning shows high pressure encompassing much of the eastern US, with a main focus centered over eastern TX stretching over the SE US. To our east, a broad area of low pressure associated with a weak trough is lingering off the Atlantic coast.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) Super nice day going with a warmer twist now as the high pressure is starting to drift off to our east. This large area of high pressure will move farther to our east tomorrow and we will see southwest winds for the most part. And then a few higher up ridges will keep a little wind and only drop to around 50 degrees. So climate-wise, we are kinda in between "normal" with another cooler than average night, but our highs will recover to average for the afternoon.
1232 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 - Minimal chances for rain for this week - Seasonable temperatures for mid week with above normal temperatures for end of the week and the weekend Ridging is expected to build into the region today which will allow WAA to dominate for much of Tuesday. Areas of Central Kansas are likely to push the 80 degree mark depending on the speed in which the ridge builds into the region. This will keep temperatures up Tuesday night with most areas likely to remain in the low 50s or upper 40s. The remainder of the CWA may not see much of a difference or just a few degrees cooler Wednesday after the front comes through.
1039 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 A broad ridge will continue to build into the Mid-South today and filter in cool and dry air from the north. Highs are expected to be slightly warmer than yesterday with values ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon areawide. High pressure will remain over the region for the next couple of days.
However, higher clouds begin to arrive late tonight well in advance of low pressure due in later in the week. High Impact Weather Potential: Low Pattern Synopsis: Mid/upper-level ridging will slide over the Great Lakes on Wednesday as a potent trough punches over the northern Great Plains and Midwest.
1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Morning fog will give way to a warmer day across the region with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Western Minnesota, particularly along the Buffalo Ridge, could make a run at 70 today with low to mid 60s elsewhere.
Cirrus should increase in waves in advance of a developing Northern Plains system, that will drive a cold front into Kansas early Wednesday. A cold front will be driven southeast into the region overnight, abruptly turning winds out of the north then northeast with time from about 6 through 10 am (Scott City - to Medicine Lodge, respectively) and bringing the greatest potential for strongest gusts as high as around 45 mph briefly in the post sunrise hours.
The passage of a cold front has brought breezy westerly winds to the Northern Rockies today, especially across western Montana. The strongest winds have been in the higher terrain along the Continental Divide, where a few automated weather stations reports gusts to 50 to 60 mph as of 1pm. As the disturbance associated with the these strong winds move off to the east tonight into Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure will quickly build back over the Northern Rockies.
331 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Key Messages: 1) A cold front will bring a a chance of showers (40-60%) across the area mainly on Wednesday evening.
with the front coming down, there will be quite a bit of mixing over the lower elevations, so min temps tonight should be in the 45- 50F range over the plains. Tomorrow will be noticeably cooler than today over the lower elevations, and expect to be 10 to 15F cooler than todays max temps.
Precip chances will be low with the highest likelihood of precip out east (20-40%).
Breezy west to northwest winds will pick up today as a weak upper trough exits the region. A sharp upper level ridge will build in behind, allowing temperatures to rise once again with lower valley locations peaking near 80 degrees towards the end of the week.
248 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 A large upper level low pressure system will remain over the northeastern United States through tonight. High pressure will build into the area Wednesday bringing clearing skies and moderating temperatures.
1243 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Upper trough extended from off the New England coast to the Carolinas. At the surface, high pressure centered over Texas was controlling the weather across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Early morning temperatures ranged from the mid 40s to lower 50s, except for the New Orleans Metro Area where the warmer waters of Lake Pontchartrain were holding temperatures near 60. High pressure will slide eastward to the Atlantic Coast by Wednesday afternoon, eventually turning low level flow onshore by Wednesday afternoon.
I went 3 degrees over yesterday for this morning, and should have gone even 3 degrees warmer than that. Will try to coordinate with surrounding offices and go 3 to 4 degrees over again tonight, but if we hold clouds until the daylight hours tomorrow, we'll likely be even warmer than that. In the grand scheme of things, this doesn't mean much as these aren't freezing temperatures, but models aren't handling the clouds/warmer overnight temperatures at all. Even if they hang out tonight, I do like them clearing out tomorrow morning at the latest and with this, as weak ridging moves in and southerly boundary layer flow begins, temperatures should warm nicely tomorrow.
The ridge axis moves overhead Wednesday morning, highs during the day in the low 60s looks likely with some along Lake Michigan potentially getting into the mid 60s thanks to southerly winds and warm air advection. As we head into Wednesday night a trough approaches from the west bringing with it positive vorticity advection, 850-700mb warm air advection, and precipitable water values around and inch.
Much of the CWA will see lows falling into the low to mid 40s. Given the particularly clear conditions and low winds, low lying areas may be more likely to see mid 30s for the low.
Issued by National Weather Service Pueblo CO 242 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Key messages: 1) Modestly cooler Wednesday. Upper trough passes mostly to the northeast of the region with a dry cold front moving across the eastern plains and I25 corridor tonight. Cooler air mass will be over the eastern plains and I25 corridor.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Sunny skies will prevail across Deep South Texas for the rest of the afternoon with high temperatures reaching the lower 80s across most places. Overnight low temps are expected to stay in the mid 50s across most of Deep South with lower 60s across the Lower Valley and Lower Texas beaches. Overnight low temps are forecast to range from the lower to mid 60s across most of the local area with lows in the 70s across the Lower Valley and local beaches.
There are some downsloping winds, mostly in the high mountains and foothills, with gusts up to 45 mph in a few spots. At the surface, models show a surge of slightly cooler air behind northerly winds by Sunday mid-day/early afternoon over the plains.
338 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 - Dry and warmer Sunday with many locations around or warmer than 50F.
Broad ridging across Western CONUS continues to regulate weather across the Northern Plains. A positively tilted ridge continues to pass overhead with a warm front moving across the southern half of the state. Temperatures have warmed in the southwest, behind the warm front, as high temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 40s. Tonight, low temperatures are forecast to drop down into the upper teens north to the lower 20s south. A short wave trough is forecast to move through the region Sunday with a weak cold front. Temperatures are forecast to remain cool near freezing across the northern half of the state while the southern half will remain warmer in the upper 30s.
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 20s. the forecast area will be under under northwest flow aloft, in between low pressure along the Mississippi River and off the west coast of the country.
This front will bring temperatures down toward normal, but these cooler temps won't last long.
Closer to home, RAP13 does show isentropic lift around 925K increasing as earlier mentioned cold front slowly moves east from eastern Arkansas tonight and into the Tennessee Valley region during the overnight hours.
A more potent upper low skirts northeast SD and west central MN after 21z Sunday.
513 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 (This evening through Sunday) 500mb ridge across the western United States and a 500mb trough across the east-central U. with temperatures falling into the lower to mid 30s across southern portions of the CWA late tonight into early Sunday morning. The upper level trough of low pressure across the east-central U.