Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This is as the stubborn troughiness in the Gulf of Mexico appears to finally be losing the battle with the ridging to the east over the North Atlantic. Although low-level ridging will continue to slowly build across the Florida Keys this weekend, forecast soundings continue to highlight a relatively deep moisture profile, with geopotential heights remaining at or below climatology.
A lee cyclone over eastern CO has locations generally along/east of Hwy 385 gusting 25+ mph out of the south. Temperatures as of 2 AM MDT were ranging from lower 50s over far northwestern portions (Yuma, CO) to middle 70s across eastern portions of the area, where breezy southerly flow and cloud cover aided in keeping temperatures warmer. Going into Saturday, the upper trough continues to dig southward over the western CONUS with its upper low finding itself centered over the Intermountain West.
158 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 High pressure across the region will remain in control through the weekend. An upper level trough will shift off the New England coast while an upper level ridge strengthens over the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys to our west.
As the region continues to be under the influence of the mid-level ridge, abnormally warm afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s will persist both today and tomorrow. /NEW/ /Saturday night through Friday/ The week will start out with more of the same seasonably hot and tranquil weather, but changes are on the way by midweek as a large upper level trough moves across the Plains and pushes a decently strong cold front through.
High temperatures will be near normal based on climatology ranging from the upper 80s to the low 90s.
Precipitation will then likely expand to portions of central Wisconsin in the afternoon, but would expect the Fox Valley and lakeshore to still remain dry as high pressure and dry air persist across the region. For temperatures, maintained the trend towards CONSALL for highs, allowing for temperatures in the lower to middle 80s for Saturday.
Those under heavy cloud cover this morning have struggled to heat up with most of central north AL and our TN counties currently only reporting temps in the low to mid 70s. Elsewhere, temps have climbed into the low 80s with high for this afternoon remaining in the mid 80s. Lows tonight will be mild in the lower 60s and upper 50s.
(Rest of tonight) High pressure remains in place over northern central TN southwest into north central/northeastern Alabama. Given the expected moisture transport over the area overnight, despite clear skies, have raised low temperatures a tad into the lower 60s and around 66 degrees near the AL/MS border.
(Tonight through Saturday) High pressure will result in continued fair weather across central Alabama through Saturday. Early-morning low temperatures should run in the lower 60s, maxing in the upper 80s to 90 during the afternoon.
Water vapor imagery this evening continues to show a weak area of low pressure near the LA Coast, with a pronounced ridge then extending northeastward from the Southern Great Plains into the Great Lakes and E Canada. With high pressure the primary influence at the sfc and aloft, a quiet night is in store for the CWA, with clear skies and drier air making for overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. Kovacik (This evening through Saturday Night) Dry and warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the weekend across the Ark-La-Tex. This is due to surface ridging in place across the area that will be reinforced by a quasi-omega blocking pattern across the Eastern U. The magnitude of this ridging will allow for even drier air to filter in on easterly winds with dew points slowly falling into the lower 60s.
High pressure will lead to a drying trend over the weekend with seasonable temperatures.
740 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (Through Saturday) Upper ridging will strengthen through the Great Lakes with an extension of the upper high in the Midwest. South of this feature, troughing will stretch through the northern Gulf which will support the stationary boundary to the south which has resided in that area for the last several days. Surface ridging will continue building into the southern US from southern Canada with drier air pushing in. However, until that trough pushes out of the area taking the boundary with it, the Gulf and southeast Big Bend will remain with an influx in moisture.
1031 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Dry high pressure will gradually build into the Southeast from the north through the weekend, remaining over the region much of the workweek. A cold front will gradually approach out of the west late in the week, bringing the potential for rain back into the forecast Friday and beyond. As of 1030 PM EDT Friday: The latest water vapor imagery indicates upper trough axis positioned east of the forecast area, with considerable mid/upper level drying occurring over the CWA in its wake. Heights will otherwise rise through the period, as prominent upstream upper ridge attempts to build into the East. with a 591+ dm ridge in place over the eastern Great Plains and extending well northward into the Great Lakes.
Aloft an upper level ridge axis is setting up over the area today, this will keep us dry and warm for several days thanks to a weak blocking pattern.
Guidance continues to indicate banding of showers over the Atlantic waters north of the Cape moving onshore later tonight, which is backed by current radar imagery, so continue to keep the highest rain chances along these coasts and inland a bit.
Light to moderate rainfall amounts are expected, with the highest amounts approaching 1 to 2 inches in the Monadnock Region before things come to an end later tonight. Starting Saturday high pressure will begin to assert dominance over the area and the forecast will remain sunny, dry, and mild through the end of the week.
534 PM PDT Fri Sep 29 2023 A robust upper-level low will drag a surface cold front across the Bay area tonight. (This evening through Saturday) Scattered showers are being observed on radar just north of our area in Mendocino County ahead of a fast moving cold front. The highest accumulation will be in the coastal mountains of Monterey and Santa Cruz counties.
611 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (This evening through Saturday) As of 18z today, an elongated ridge is located over Mexico, portions of Texas, and into the Southeast CONUS. This ridge will move eastward ahead of the large, yet slightly positively tilted digging trough located over the West Coast. This afternoon, movement of the ridge eastward will allow for southwesterly flow bringing somewhat moist air in the mid-levels to eastern New Mexico. Otherwise, most areas will be dry with highs in the lower 90s and winds 15 to 20 mph. Tomorrow, as the upper trough gets closer, southwesterly flow will continue.
A cold front will move across the MidSouth midweek and produce showers and storms area-wide.
High pressure will remain centered to the north Tonight, with ridge extending south across the area. Weak inverted trough will remain along the coastal waters.
647 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday) Upper level height rises are ongoing across the region this afternoon as a ridge builds across the ArkLaMiss to our west. As a result, the overall airmass will begin to moderate and warm as the upper ridge builds in from the west. Following some light jacket-worthy temperatures this morning in the upper 50s and lower 60s, we should be a little warmer overnight due to the airmass modification. A 591 decameter ridge at 500mb should be centered just to the north of Central Alabama during the day on Saturday, along with plentiful amounts of dry air across the atmospheric profile.
The nearby upper ridge axis will quell any percolating daytime cumulus farther to the north. /Issued 209 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023/ /Saturday night through Friday/ The week will start out with more of the same seasonably hot and tranquil weather, but changes are on the way by midweek as a large upper level trough moves across the Plains and pushes a decently strong cold front through.
734 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Dry high pressure will gradually build into the Southeast from the north through the weekend, remaining over the region much of the workweek. A cold front will gradually approach out of the west late in the week, bringing the potential for rain back into the forecast Friday and beyond. As of 730 PM EDT Friday: The latest water vapor imagery indicates upper trough axis positioned east of the forecast area, with considerable mid/upper level drying occurring over the CWA in its wake. Heights will otherwise rise through the period, as prominent upstream upper ridge attempts to build into the East. with a 591+ dm ridge in place over the eastern Great Plains and extending well northward into the Great Lakes.
533 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Dry high pressure will gradually build into the Southeast from the north through the weekend, remaining over the region much of the workweek. A cold front will gradually approach out of the west late in the week, bringing the potential for rain back into the forecast Friday and beyond. As of 530 PM EDT Friday: The latest water vapor imagery indicates upper trough axis positioned east of the forecast area, with considerable mid/upper level drying occurring over the CWA in its wake. SPC Mesoanalysis depicts weak surface-based instability along the southern escarpment of the Blue Ridge. Heights will otherwise rise through the period, as prominent upstream upper ridge attempts to build into the East. with a 591+ dm ridge in place over the eastern Great Plains and extending well northward into the Great Lakes.
1029 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 High pressure across the region will remain in control through the weekend. An upper level trough will shift off the New England coast while an upper level ridge strengthens over the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys to our west.
624 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) An upper level ridge extends from northern Mexico into the central Mississippi River valley with weak flow over Texas.
753 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 High pressure will gradually build across the region through the weekend. High pressure is centered over the eastern Great Lakes and New England, with low pressure along the New England and Mid- Atlantic Coasts. Still dealing with areas of cloud cover over parts of the Mid-Atlantic, so until the area of high pressure builds firmly into the area, expecting occasional cloud cover and isolated showers. but still being teased by the Low pressure along the coast with shallow layer of moisture under 700 mb. Key Messages: - High pressure, surface and aloft, brings much improved weather conditions to the area for the weekend, A strong and high amplitude 590 dm ridge will build from the Ohio and Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region.
719 PM MDT Fri Sep 29 2023 No major updates to the forecast this evening, but will be watching for low clouds and fog developing over south-central SD as moist easterly flow in the wake of a departing high pressure advects toward the higher terrain of western SD. Water vapor shows short wave responsible for our overnight convection now pushing through the far eastern Dakotas into the Upper Midwest, with next trof axis along the Pac NW coast and southwest flow in-between. At the surface, ridge covers the western Dakotas with early afternoon temps mainly in the 60s. Warmer air will advect back into the region over the weekend as upper trof digs across the far western CONUS and splits for a period of time.
445 PM MDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Water vapor shows short wave responsible for our overnight convection now pushing through the far eastern Dakotas into the Upper Midwest, with next trof axis along the Pac NW coast and southwest flow in-between. At the surface, ridge covers the western Dakotas with early afternoon temps mainly in the 60s. Warmer air will advect back into the region over the weekend as upper trof digs across the far western CONUS and splits for a period of time.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: An upper trough across the western U.
929 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 High pressure and dry conditions continue across the CWA this evening. Upper low is expected to continue to develop off the NE coastline over next 24 hours. Ridge also sets up centered over the Great Lakes/Midwest over the next 36 hours ahead of sharp digging trough over the western US, keeping the pattern a bit stagnant thanks to Omega Block look.
652 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) Dry and warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the weekend across the Ark-La-Tex. This is due to surface ridging in place across the area that will be reinforced by a quasi-omega blocking pattern across the Eastern U. The magnitude of this ridging will allow for even drier air to filter in on easterly winds with dew points slowly falling into the lower 60s.
A robust upper-level low will drag a surface cold front across the Bay area tonight. (This evening through Saturday) Scattered showers are being observed on radar just north of our area in Mendocino County ahead of a fast moving cold front. The highest accumulation will be in the coastal mountains of Monterey and Santa Cruz counties.
Further south, it is very apparent when looking at surface obs where the warm front lies and where clouds have been thinnest today. Temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 80s along I-90 and are still in the low 70s around the metro and mid 60s further north and east into Wisconsin.
Showery weather continues through tomorrow afternoon, with the bulk of the precipitation remaining moving south and east this evening into tonight before showers start to die out with the exit of the upper trough from our area.
736 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 High pressure across the region will remain in control through the weekend. An upper level trough will shift off the New England coast while an upper level ridge strengthens over the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys to our west.
105 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 High pressure will gradually build across the region through the weekend.
Pattern defined by upper ridge centered near 90W just to our west with unseasonably high 500mb height values around 588-591 dm. Daytime temps 3-8 degs above normal and nighttime temps 5-10 degs above, with the higher anomalies over north GA. Max temps tomorrow should be a deg or two cooler. With ridge axis to our west, subsidence and dry advection aloft will preclude any precip and even most clouds, other than some daytime cumulus, even with easterly sfc flow.
Otherwise, not much in the way of clouds with the upper level ridge building over the area. An upper level ridge will build over the region and bring mild weather for the next several days.
(Today and tonight) Upper level flow will become more southwest today, the upper ridging shifts east.
The latest water vapor imagery continues to show a pronounced upper ridge extending from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes. The latest HREF shows that this ridge will remain over Missouri and Illinois through Sunday keeping our weather dry and the sky mainly clear. deeper over western CWA this afternoon favors highs similar to yesterday with mid 80s over south central Illinois to around 90 near the Mississippi River to the lower 90s over central Missouri.
Also, helping to enhance llvl lift is east/southeast flow btwn sfc and 850mb, while light it helps to squeeze out additional moisture along the higher trrn of eastern VT, as light rain has just started at MPV. mid/upper lvl ridge builds into northern NY/VT from southern Canada, along with 1025mb high pres.
In the mid to upper levels, ridging over the Caribbean and weak troughing over the northern Gulf continue to pump deep tropical moisture into the area via southwest flow, with PW values generally in excess of 2.
205 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023 07z surface analysis had weak high over the upper Midwest with a lee trough from central WY into northeast CO. Pressure falls ahead of trough in response to low level warm advection resulting in increasing return flow over the CWA. Widening the view per water vapour loop depicts upper trough from BC to CA with southwest flow over the northern Plains. Disposition of upper trough the main forecast concern.
The combination of a lack of precipitation and stronger than expected winds have allowed for temperatures to remain in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s to near 80.
1250 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Tonight through Saturday) High pressure will result in continued fair weather across central Alabama through Saturday. Early-morning low temperatures should run in the lower 60s, maxing in the upper 80s to 90 during the afternoon.
Increased cloud cover on Sunday and a shift of the hotter airmass into the eastern Plains will contribute to temperature as much as 5 degrees cooler than Saturday. There might be a significant decrease in the gustiness as well as the core of the low level jet at 850 mb lifts into Nebraska weakening along the way.
(Today through Sunday) High pressure overhead will remain through the weekend.
210 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 The current forecast is on track with ample fog in the valleys - locally dense - otherwise, mostly clear skies with a small ridge to valley temperature difference are in place. Northwest flow on the back side of an upper low over the Mid- Atlantic states gradually becomes more northerly and northeasterly over the next 24 hours and then gradually diminishes or becomes easterly Saturday night into Sunday morning as the region becomes increasingly under the influence of building upper level high pressure ridging.
243 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Today through tonight: Overall, the forecast remains warm and dry for the near term given continued ridging over the forecast area. Temperatures this afternoon will be on the hot side (~5 to 10 F above climatological normal) in the low to mid 90s, but low humidity will keep heat indices from being highly stressful. The low RH and high temperatures combined with continued dry weather will enhance the fire weather danger and we will keep the HWO graphic going.
The weather heading into the weekend wl rmn controlled by high pressure, both at the sfc and aloft. The upper ridge wl keep conds dry over the Mid-South.
Leftover high clouds and an upper level ridge continuing to breakdown and shift to the east will make for a slightly cooler day area wide. Highs look to reach into the upper 80s to low 90s with even "cooler" temperatures possible depending on rainfall. Lows tonight settle into the 60s to near 70F for most with the 50s sneaking in over the higher terrain. Sunday will be cooler still with most making it into the mid to upper 80s. Continued cloud cover and higher rain chances during the afternoon help keep things cooler to end the weekend.
1234 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) An upper level ridge extends from northern Mexico into the central Mississippi River valley with weak flow over Texas.
247 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Key Messages -There are patches of dense fog around the area this morning, so far mainly from Baudette to Bemidji -High temperatures were warmer than anticipated yesterday within the central and northern Red River Valley, expect the same today and Sunday It is a pretty weak surface pattern across the FA early this morning, with light winds everywhere.
In the upper levels, an upper high will be in control with pronounced ridging through our area.
1214 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Rest of tonight) High pressure remains in place over northern central TN southwest into north central/northeastern Alabama. Given the expected moisture transport over the area overnight, despite clear skies, have raised low temperatures a tad into the lower 60s and around 66 degrees near the AL/MS border.
/NEW/ /This Weekend/ It will be another hot weekend as ridging continues to prevail for the next day or two. The ridge will slide east this evening, opening the door for drier air to filter into the region from the east tonight/tomorrow. The drier air will allow for Sunday morning's temperature to be a few degrees cooler than today. Normally, drier air would result in warmer afternoon temperatures, but the eastward translation of the ridge will open the door for cirrus to move into the region Sunday and offset the impact of the drier air.
High pressure and a drying column will result in sunny skies Saturday, and afternoon highs should have no problem rebounding into the upper 70s and mid 80s. Currently, we find ourselves on the back side of a departing trough with ridge-building ongoing to our west. This ridge, induced by a digging trough over the western US, will continue to build through Sunday. At the surface, high pressure located maritime Canada will gradually slide southwestward.
108 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Dry high pressure will gradually build into the Southeast from the north through the weekend, remaining over the region much of the workweek.
Dry conditions are expected today into Sunday, as the 500 mb ridge axis amplifies over the region. Went with highs in the lower to middle 80s inland, with southeast winds keeping lakeshore areas in the 70s each day.
Water vapor imagery this evening continues to show a weak area of low pressure near the LA Coast, with a pronounced ridge then extending northeastward from the Southern Great Plains into the Great Lakes and E Canada. With high pressure the primary influence at the sfc and aloft, a quiet night is in store for the CWA, with clear skies and drier air making for overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
High pressure will build into Western Washington today and through the weekend.
Coverage and density of the fog is a bit more notable over portions of northwest Indiana where temperatures are a few degrees cooler than over most of northern Illinois, middle and upper 50s as opposed to lower 60s. We couldn't ask for a much nicer weekend to ring the month of October thanks to this upper high that's slowly meandering across the Midwest. We should see lots of sun today as temperatures warm into the lower 80s area-wide. Doom High amplitude ridging, part of an Omega blocking pattern across North American, will result in an unseasonably warm start to October.
1012 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (Issued 1009 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023) Quiet conditions are expected to linger overnight with high pressure overhead. CMiller (Issued 158 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023) Tonight through Saturday night: High pressure situated to the east of the forecast region will bring calm, southerly winds into the overnight hours. Saturday will bring warmer than average temperatures, with central-western WI rising into the lower 80s by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will continue to remain southerly and calm as the high pressure remains off to the east, with gustier winds during the afternoon. The temperature overnight on Saturday will also be warmer than the previous day, lowering into the 60s.
(Today and tonight) Surface ridging will continue building into the southern US from southern Canada with a drier airmass. However, weak upper troughing along the Gulf coast and some deep moisture just offshore will continue to provide a chance of showers for the southeast big bend. The highest chance is expected to be along the Dixie county coast and offshore.
1239 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (This evening through Saturday) As of 18z today, an elongated ridge is located over Mexico, portions of Texas, and into the Southeast CONUS. This ridge will move eastward ahead of the large, yet slightly positively tilted digging trough located over the West Coast. This afternoon, movement of the ridge eastward will allow for southwesterly flow bringing somewhat moist air in the mid-levels to eastern New Mexico. Otherwise, most areas will be dry with highs in the lower 90s and winds 15 to 20 mph. Tomorrow, as the upper trough gets closer, southwesterly flow will continue.
Early this morning, an amplified troughing pattern is seen over the western CONUS with a ridge in place over the southeastern quadrant of the country.