Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A highly amplified ridge over the West Coast leaves the Great Plains with northerly flow sending another cold front through early Friday morning in the northern Permian Basin and clearing the CWA by late afternoon.
Precipitation will continue to remain possible across areas south of I-70 this morning and into the afternoon as the upper low slowly moves east of the area. By late tonight into Friday morning, a better chance for rain will move in from the northwest as a digging upper low will move southwest of the area. Guidance still bisects northeast Kansas between two energy maximums; one over the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, and the other associated with the current upper low that will have moved towards the Great Lakes region. Areas of patchy fog could also develop Friday morning ahead of the trough axis in east-central Kansas as moisture pooled air and light winds near the surface develop. By the afternoon, the trough axis will begin to bisect the CWA, shifting winds to the northwest.
642 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Key Messages: * A line of thunderstorms is expected to accompany a cold front this afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours.
Meanwhile, an upper low was centered over OK, where sctd convection was noted in the vcnty of the center of circulation. The aforementioned upper low wl cont to work to the east today, eventually tracking acrs N AR/Srn MO this aftn and early tngt.
Onshore winds resume during the day as high pressure moves to the east and pressures fall across West Texas in advance of the next storm system.
(Today) Showers and a few thunderstorms will decrease from west to east today as an upper low currently over central Oklahoma moves east across the area.
and Friday An upper trough moving across Northern Wisconsin will produce scattered showers this morning. Additional showers are possible during the afternoon across Northern Wisconsin ahead of a warm front. Showers are likely across Northern Wisconsin tonight as the warm front moves slowly north into the Upper Peninsula by Friday morning. There is a slight chance of showers across far Northcentral Wisconsin in the afternoon ahead of a cold front approaching from Minnesota.
(Today through Friday) A weakening upper low currently moving through the Central Plains will continue east across the lower/mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening.
Current WV imagery and 500 mb analysis depicts southern flow upper level trough over OK/TX with the northern plains under quasi-zonal flow. Not expecting much in terms of accumulation, 1-2 inches for the most part with some higher accumulations of potentially 4-5 inches in the higher elevations. Upper level ridge builds over the region through this weekend, keeping us on the warm and dry side. Ridge will be sluggish to move as an upper low loiters over the Great Lakes region to the east and another upper low stalls out just off the west coast. Some snow is possible for the higher elevations of the Black Hills by late afternoon with IFR/LIFR conditions.
The highest chances for showers and storms remain over the interior and along the Nature Coast late afternoon through the evening hours.
453 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Key Messages: * A line of thunderstorms is expected to accompany a cold front this afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours.
858 AM PDT Thu Apr 27 2023 High pressure over the West Coast favors warmer weather over most inland areas through the weekend.
224 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 As the upper level trough over the region weakens and lifts out into the Ohio Valley, scattered showers and isolated storms will continue to slide east and taper off late tonight. The next trough currently over the Northern Plains will continue to deepen and drop south into the Southern Plains over the next 24 to 36 hours. In the meantime, expect dry and slightly warmer conditions on Friday with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Temperatures continue to climb into the low 80s late this morning and forecast highs in the mid to upper 80s is on track.
The highest chances for showers and storms remain over the interior and along the Nature Coast late afternoon through the evening hours. By Friday morning, an area of low pressure moves through the SE U. with a cold front extending through northern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
341 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Rain chances increase tonight as a warm front lifts across the area in tandem with an upper level disturbance passing overhead.
1217 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 (Today and tonight) Shower activity is expected to gradually diminish through the morning as the upper low finally departs to our east.
1243 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 (The rest of today ) Upper low moving overhead currently, with rain and storms located mainly in the deformation zone on the north side of the center across far NE OK into NW AR. Some redevelopment of storms is possible later today from far SE OK into west-central AR near the base of the advancing larger scale upper trough, but any afternoon severe potential is more than likely going to be east of the forecast area.
Temperatures through the short-term period will remain seasonably cool, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 30s and highs on Friday ranging from the upper 40s east to near 60 west.
Northerly surface winds tonight into tomorrow will help to bring cooler and more stable air into the environment.
MH (Issued 418 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023) Today and Tonight: Just high clouds are expected today as low pressure tracks well to our north. Steady southerly winds will usher warmer, more seasonable, temperatures into southern WI. Expect highs in the lower to mid 60s and even warmer well inland.
130 PM PDT Thu Apr 27 2023 High pressure over the West Coast favors warmer weather over most inland areas through the weekend.
After this system, a warming and drying trend will begin Friday as ridging begins pushing into Wyoming.
Warming trend underway across the region as high pressure builds over the region.
a trough will dig down from the north and brush across the Four Corners region. Conditions are expected to remain dry as the trough moves through as there will be very limited moisture available. The main impact from the trough will be from the tightening pressure gradient resulting in gusty north to northeast winds. A cooler air mass will push into the region in the northerly flow and expect Friday's highs to be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today's highs.
In the lower levels, a convectively reinforced surface boundary currently located along the I-10 corridor will be the focus for severe weather during the aforementioned timeframe.
Low pressure will build in late Friday night, leading to increased cloud cover and chances for rain showers in western portions of the area.
Discussion: Troughing at 500 MB will prevail through the short term across the Upper Midwest, A 500 MB trough will lift from Arkansas across Missouri and into Illinois tonight with mainly high clouds spilling into the area. Low temperatures on Friday morning will be noticeably warmer with lows between 43 to 48 degrees from north to south across the area.
In addition, a cold front will accompany this system and move across Kansas with well below normal temperatures expected.
Farther south in Middle Georgia, much warmer temperatures are noted in the far southern/southeast counties of the CWA south of the warm front. While the highest severe risk will remain south of our area, there remains an isolated severe storm risk for our far southern/southeast counties through the next few hours where additional convection will continue developing in the warm sector. On Friday, the entire area will be within the warm sector with SBCAPE values forecast to reach 1000-2000 J/kg ahead of the approaching surface cold front, which will be pushing eastward through our area during the afternoon. While the upper trough will be weakening, at least isolated convection is expected to develop ahead of the surface front.
A cold front moving across the divide has widespread northerly winds with gusts 20-30 mph.
This will bring rapid moisture return back to the area tonight, with surface dewpoints reaching up into the low/mid 60s along the I-10 corridor by sunrise Friday morning. This will lead to plenty of instability ahead of another cold front moving across the area on Friday afternoon.
Going into the overnight, we'll see quiet weather conditions in the wake of the trough, but high boundary layer RH and light wind could support some fog.
The next upper trough axis will be pushing into the Southern Plains overnight into tomorrow morning. A cold front associated with the low will move through the area beginning in the late afternoon hours before exiting the region by midnight.
This will keep the Florida Keys under the peripheral influence of a weak area of high pressure in the west-central Atlantic. There are some indications that the low-levels may moisten up somewhat briefly on Friday, as steering flow slackens and veers to the southwest.
The hottest temperatures of the season will occur this weekend as a strong ridge builds over the west coast. At 1200, temperatures were about 5-9 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago with Las Vegas currently running 8 degrees warmer than yesterday. Persistent ridging over the Western US will allow for afternoon temperatures around 15+ degrees above normal over the weekend.
(The rest of today ) Upper low moving overhead currently, with rain and storms located mainly in the deformation zone on the north side of the center across far NE OK into NW AR. Some redevelopment of storms is possible later today from far SE OK into west-central AR near the base of the advancing larger scale upper trough, but any afternoon severe potential is more than likely going to be east of the forecast area.
Key Messages: * A line of thunderstorms is expected to accompany a cold front this afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours.
1234 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Aside from some isolated showers early this morning across parts of Northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskills, dry weather is expected today with high pressure briefly moving into the area.
148 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023 The weather system that brought gusty north winds, cooler temperatures and precipitation to the region will move south of the area tonight with rain and snow ending and skies clearing from north to south early this evening. An upper level ridge amplifying west of the area will shift inland Friday with its axis eventually reaching the Northern Rockies and MT by late this weekend.
It continues to look like the SE portion of the area/state will see the highest likelihood of rain and amounts, with chances and amounts tapering off as you head to the NW.
- Showers and scattered storms along a cold front usher in this wet period Friday evening.
Upper level trough passing to our east will bring gusty northerly winds to Southwest Idaho this afternoon. Despite the northerly flow and partial cloud cover, temperatures are still expected to reach the mid 70s today in the lower valleys. Warm and dry condition expected into the weekend as a high amplitude ridge moves over the forecast area tomorrow.
Temperatures are already in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints are in the lower 70s, so it has been quite the muggy start to this late April morning. This is likely due to the lower to mid level ridge centered over our area and the drier air acting as a barricade to the approaching convection.
A few localized areas along the central Mogollon Rim and Black Mesa could see stronger wind gusts Friday morning as the high resolution ensemble forecast shows a 40% to 80% chance of wind gusts reaching 45 mph.
635 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Rain chances increase tonight as a warm front lifts across the area in tandem with an upper level disturbance passing overhead.
Main area of concern in the mid-state continues to be south of I-40 and west of I-65 as instability has increased to 500-700 J/Kg over the last several hours due to the cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper low over the mid-Mississippi valley.
The upper level low will continue to dig as it traverses the state, which is typically not a conducive path for significant precipitation or severe weather.
The weather system that brought gusty north winds, cooler temperatures and precipitation to the region will move south of the area tonight with rain and snow ending and skies clearing from north to south early this evening. An upper level ridge amplifying west of the area will shift inland Friday with its axis eventually reaching the Northern Rockies and MT by late this weekend.
945 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 A wave of low pressure will bring rain for tonight into Friday.
843 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023 The weather system that brought gusty north winds, cooler temperatures and precipitation to the region will move south of the area tonight with rain and snow ending and skies clearing from north to south early this evening. An upper level ridge amplifying west of the area will shift inland Friday with its axis eventually reaching the Northern Rockies and MT by late this weekend.
620 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 (This evening through Friday) Fog is possible tonight into tomorrow morning, and a few marginally severe to severe storms are possible tomorrow Cloud cover, which is associated with the departing upper-low, exits our CWA late evening as additional clouds move into northwest Oklahoma in advance of the next upper trough. A cold front then arrives from the high plains and will move through the area tomorrow. Ahead of the front, temperatures may rise into the low 70's (parts of western north TX and southern OK). A trough, currently observed over Montana, continues to dive southeast tonight and reaches New Mexico by morning. As the low progresses, a warm front lifts northward, and potentially, reaches the Red River by afternoon. Severe storm chances will largely depend on how far north the warm front can advance.
749 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Rain chances increase tonight as a warm front lifts across the area in tandem with an upper level disturbance passing overhead.
859 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 (Issued 900 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023) Expecting another warm spring day with some clouds to end the week with highs inland into the 60s with a few spots nearing or evening cracking 70F, but easterly flow combined with a lake breeze is expected to keep temps cooler by the lake. Low pressure will build in late Friday night, leading to increased cloud cover and chances for rain showers in western portions of the area.
Looking into the extended we must be ruffles because there's going to be ridges for days out here with the strong omega blocking pattern setting up. To the south a warm ridge rises out of the Baja along the California coast into southern Oregon. Farther West a large trough is developing just south of the Aleutian Islands. Today: A low pressure system has spun up over southern Alberta beneath the disturbance is rushing along the international border through northern Montana. A cold front has formed up behind the low along with showers on it.
Rain will continue to overspread the region overnight as a low pressure system moves northward. The best low level moisture and instability axis looks to affect the Lower Scioto Valley into portions of Central Ohio. Highs on Friday are going to vary from near 60 northwest to the lower 70s southeast.
Upstream ridging has kept the local area dry through most of the day with an increase in high and mid level clouds being observed from the southwest. Mild temperatures with overnight lows from the mid 40s northeast to the lower 50s south. The best low level moisture and instability axis looks to affect the Lower Scioto Valley into portions of Central Ohio. Highs on Friday are going to vary from near 60 northwest to the lower 70s southeast.
706 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 As the upper level trough over the region weakens and lifts out into the Ohio Valley, scattered showers and isolated storms will continue to slide east and taper off late tonight. The next trough currently over the Northern Plains will continue to deepen and drop south into the Southern Plains over the next 24 to 36 hours. In the meantime, expect dry and slightly warmer conditions on Friday with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.
As weak mid level ridging pulls east, mid level energy will provide support for more showers and storms to develop over the east-central Gulf.
(This evening through Friday) Fog is possible tonight into tomorrow morning, and a few marginally severe to severe storms are possible tomorrow Cloud cover, which is associated with the departing upper-low, exits our CWA late evening as additional clouds move into northwest Oklahoma in advance of the next upper trough. A cold front then arrives from the high plains and will move through the area tomorrow. Ahead of the front, temperatures may rise into the low 70's (parts of western north TX and southern OK). A trough, currently observed over Montana, continues to dive southeast tonight and reaches New Mexico by morning. As the low progresses, a warm front lifts northward, and potentially, reaches the Red River by afternoon. Severe storm chances will largely depend on how far north the warm front can advance.
A short wave trough moved southward from MT through WY today and increased surface winds to advisory speeds in south- central Idaho. The trough will be in CO by midnight and surface winds will decrease. With the trough now out of the way the larger scale upper ridge along the coast will expand inland Friday and bring even warmer air to our area through the weekend.
1034 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Rain chances increase tonight as a warm front lifts across the area in tandem with an upper level disturbance passing overhead.
816 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 A wave of low pressure will bring rain for tonight into Friday.
602 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Current: Cloud cover continues to increase across the region ahead of an advancing cold front, with latest observations showing breezy southwesterly winds and light showers along and west of the James River. This Evening: Will see showers continue to blossom along and west of I-29 as the aforementioned cold front edges closer to the region. Friday: Expect light showers to continue along and east of I-29 Friday as the sfc cold front advances eastward into SW Minnesota and NW Iowa. Thus, only have highs rising into the low to mid 50s. Much like afternoon highs, expect overnight lows to take a notable dip, as temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s.
Cooler conditions are anticipated again for the early work week with periodic chances for additional rain. Southern stream upper low, currently over NE Oklahoma, will begin to make its way towards the forecast area, arriving overhead near/after 12Z Fri.
634 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 (The rest of this afternoon ) The upper level low that has aided in the widespread rainfall today is overhead now, and will move east of the area by later today. The upper level low will continue to dig as it traverses the state, which is typically not a conducive path for significant precipitation or severe weather.
251 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 We're starting out between the exiting low over southern MN and IA at 12Z, and strong high pressure across ID and western WY. At 500mb we'll still have the main trough set up across the eastern Dakotas. The ridge will sink south tonight.
Cooler, more seasonable temperatures along with breezy to gusty northeast winds are expected overnight into Friday. Much warmer temperatures and continued dry conditions are then expected over the weekend. Overnight gusts look to be the highest near and downwind of any southeastward-facing terrain features, where gusts of up to 45 mph are forecast. However, areas of virga or maybe a light sprinkle or two will be possible mainly over the higher terrain of the Kaibab Plateau and San Francisco Peaks. A few localized areas along the central Mogollon Rim and Black Mesa could see stronger wind gusts Friday morning as the high resolution ensemble forecast shows a 40% to 80% chance of wind gusts reaching 45 mph.
A relatively shallow upper level trough will drive a mid and sfc level low northward into the Ohio River valley. QPF with this system is fairly light with the highest rainfall expected in the southeast portion of the state.
Showers will move slowly into Central and North Central Wisconsin tonight as an upper trough moves south into northwest Wisconsin from Canada. Cold advection will make for a much cooler day, especially across the Northwoods where highs will be in the upper 30s and the rain could mix with snow late in the day.
1042 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 (This evening through Friday) Fog is possible tonight into tomorrow morning, and a few marginally severe to severe storms are possible tomorrow Cloud cover, which is associated with the departing upper-low, exits our CWA late evening as additional clouds move into northwest Oklahoma in advance of the next upper trough. A cold front then arrives from the high plains and will move through the area tomorrow. Ahead of the front, temperatures may rise into the low 70's (parts of western north TX and southern OK). A trough, currently observed over Montana, continues to dive southeast tonight and reaches New Mexico by morning. As the low progresses, a warm front lifts northward, and potentially, reaches the Red River by afternoon. Severe storm chances will largely depend on how far north the warm front can advance.
Northerly surface winds tonight into tomorrow will help to bring cooler and more stable air into the environment. Winds will start to shift southerly in direction late Friday night through Saturday morning, which will help begin to reintroduce moisture and warmer air back into the environment.
After a brief break from the rain tomorrow, another cold front moves through Saturday and rain chances increase again.
205 AM MDT Fri Apr 28 2023 After a few isolated showers over far southeast MT early this morning, an upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies will dominate our weather into Saturday night and beyond with dry conditions. Skies will be mostly clear most of the time but will be mostly cloudy this afternoon into tonight as a weak upper air disturbance moves southeastward along the eastern edge of the ridge over MT and WY. The disturbance looks weak enough and the lower levels of the atmosphere dry enough that we are only expecting an increase in cloud cover and not any precipitation. Saturday night will be cooler over southeast MT as low- level north-northeasterly winds bring in modestly cooler air there.
Upper level ridging will build in strong from the west directly situating over the Rock Mountain Divide as increasing convergence aloft dominates the regime for the upcoming days ahead. Temperatures will push into the 80s for the Bighorn Basin by 80 with points west of the Divide seeing 50s and widespread 60s for much of the lower elevations of Lincoln and Teton Counties to include the Hoback Junction. The foothills in the 6-9kft range will also see the warmer temperatures and also be affected in terms of snow melt in the coming days ahead. Otherwise, the omega blocked ridge will continue to sit in place through mid week keeping the stronger upper level lows off the west coast of California that push south from the Gulf of Alaska.
These conditions will quickly change from northwest to southeast this afternoon as a strong upper-level trough and associated cold front sweeps across West Central Texas this afternoon and evening. With ample surface moisture in place ahead of the cold front, we are expecting there to be plenty of instability to kick-off potentially severe thunderstorms along and southeast of a Brownwood to Menard line this afternoon and evening. Since the cold front is expected to track across the Big Country and northwestern Concho Valley prior to peak- heating today, cooler high temperatures across these areas are expected to range in the lower 70s to mid 80s. Whereas areas southeast of a Coleman to San Angelo line are expected be warmer and range in the mid 80s to mid 90s.
A ridge of high pressure is building over the region today through the weekend. A ridge building over the region will keep area terminals in VFR conditions with light winds.