Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1143 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure will expand across the area from the north through the weekend while weak low pressure remains off the coast. At 1130 AM, visible satellite, obs, and radar data indicated that the backdoor cold front was pushing south across extreme SE GA. In the wake of the front, ridging high pressure was increasing across the forecast area, supporting steady NE winds. In the upper levels high pressure will prevail over New England while low pressure persists over the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface weak high pressure will build into the region. Drier air associated with the building high pressure will yield minimal POPs Thursday afternoon.
1251 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Summary: The blocking pattern continues giving hot weather for this time of year though widespread rain does not appear likely within this forecast aside from afternoon convection.
145 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure continues to produce VFR conditions across the area through the taf period. Period of dry and seasonably warm weather continues as upper level ridging and its surface pressure reflection hold firmly in place. 00z upper air analysis confirms the ridge is strengthening with max 500mb heights of 583 dam observed via Buffalo RAOB. Full effects of this blocking pattern will be felt locally over the next several days as the center of the ridge strengthens further and retrogrades overhead, with 500mb heights pushing into the 99th percentile for early June standards per NAEFS.
Onshore flow will also keep cooler temperatures and breezier winds through Wednesday. An upper level low that has been parked over SoCal will slowly shift eastward today. Coastal areas will still hold onto some residual cloud cover so temperatures will remain cooler, but inland areas will see a more noticeable warming trend. For tonight - do expect another push of marine layer clouds, but building high pressure will compress the depth of marine layer.
1244 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Today and tonight) The current synoptic pattern will continue for one more day before the ridge breaks down and we transition to a more widespread rain pattern. With the ridge starting to weaken and a low level jet slightly farther to the east (edging into western Oklahoma) than last night, storms will have a slightly better chance at maintaining into our forecast area--at least for a bit.
/Issued 1251 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023/ /Through Thursday/ An upper level ridge remains in control of our area today keeping this afternoon's rain and storm chances mainly across our eastern/southeastern counties. A similar pattern is expected tomorrow before the ridge breaks down and we transition more into an active period.
Satellite imagery already shows an agitated cumulus field over the region with some mixed-phase clouds trying to break through the freezing level. Rest of the night will feature quite weather, clearing skies, and lowering temperatures as lows drop to the low 60s. Typical early summer weather is expected for most of the forecast period as modest sfc and upper ridging remain largely in control.
(The rest of today ) Current forecast looks on track heading into the afternoon with the persistent weak upper level trough over the area.
1225 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (The rest of today ) Current forecast looks on track heading into the afternoon with the persistent weak upper level trough over the area.
148 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure will remain over the region with dry and warm conditions through the end of the week.
Large area of stagnant high pressure continues to hold over much of the eastern US this afternoon. Building diurnal instability and some increase in low level moisture on the back side of the ridge axis has lead to the development of widely scattered showers/isold thunderstorms across much of Northern Lower Michigan as expected.
228 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 A wave of low pressure could bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.
Just like last several days, more widespread storms will be coming off of the High Plains tonight, especially across the TX Panhandle into Western OK. Both ECMWF and GFS agree that upper ridging will be in place from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Sun morning. Meanwhile, a weak upper trough will extend from the central Rockies down into the Southern Plains.
Dew points will continue to rise as a low pressure system located near the Gulf Coast will bring moisture into the region. An Omega block occurs when two low pressure systems are cut of from the main flow of the jet with a high pressure system wedged in between them. So what does this mean for the ArkLaMiss? Generally quiet and dry weather is associated for areas near or under the High pressure while areas closer to the trough on either side of the omega block, however we also have influence from the Gulf. This means that though there is influence from the high pressure across our region, a low pressure system developing in the Gulf of Mexico will surge warm southerly flow into the region increasing moisture in the lower and mid-levels.
138 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 A ridge of high pressure is expected to build from the New England Coast back west over the local area through Thursday.
Then as the upper level low moves closer to the forecast area overnight, an additional round of thunderstorms will be possible as large scale ascent increases areawide. The second round of rain and thunderstorms is forecast to develop early tomorrow morning as the 500 mb upper level low moves northeast and diffluence aloft increases over the forecast area along with a 250 mb jet streak becoming situated to our southwest.
These showers and storms are expected to continue into the evening until the environment has begun to work itself over and we loose some of the low level convergence. Lakeshore areas will be cooler than inland areas.
1221 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Now through Thursday) Outside of a few streamer showers along the coast, drier weather is anticipated the next couple of days with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 90s for highs and low to mid 70s for lows. The axis of an H5 ridge is forecast to nudge overhead the next couple of days, essentially shutting off rain chances.
An area of low pressure will move east and into Mohave County this afternoon and will bring isolated to scattered rain showers, and a slight chance of thunderstorms, particularly over the higher elevations today.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ An upper level ridge remains in control of our area today keeping this afternoon's rain and storm chances mainly across our eastern/southeastern counties. A similar pattern is expected tomorrow before the ridge breaks down and we transition more into an active period.
(This Afternoon thru Thursday) Our area remains in weak ridging/nebulous flow aloft downstream from increasing SW flow over the southern High Plains ahead of upper low over the Southwest in the subtropical flow.
So, "Play it again Sam" seems to be on course for another 24 hrs, just slightly warmer along a south of I-20 and in the nights to come.
Discussion: High pressure at the surface and aloft continues to sit over the Mid Atlantic today.
(This evening through Thursday) Thunderstorms are developing across the higher terrain of New Mexico to the west. The remnants of the High Plains convection will move to the east-northeast this evening with the remnants likely moving into western Oklahoma late evening into the overnight.
High temperatures for this afternoon will peak in the lower to mid 80s. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s along the coast and for areas near the St Johns River.
951 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure over the northeastern states will extend into the Ohio Valley, with hot and mostly sunny conditions persisting through the rest of the week.
The upper level height pattern will slowly transition into a more organized Omega block ridge Thursday. No significant changes in forecast trends through the rest of the workweek as a 584 dam H5 blocked ridge begins to unlock, gradually retrograding toward the Great Lakes over the next 24 hours. 12Z KDTX RAOB sampled the highest morning PWAT in over a week given weak low-level confluence/ThetaE advection.
The NHC keeps an area of low pressure over the ERN Gulf with a 20pct chance of tropical formation into the foreseeable future. Expect at least SCT to possibly NMRS showers and ISOLD-SCT lightning storms into the afternoon driven by interactions between the sea breeze and an area of low pressure over the Gulf, as well as a weak quasi- stationary frontal boundary draped across southern Florida.
(Now through Thursday) Current conditions across the local area are characterized by temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.
Night and morning low cloudiness will continue, though with gradually diminishing areal coverage as upper level high pressure builds over the area and leads to diminishing depth of the marine layer.
A trough of low pressure crossing the area has effectively scattered out the marine layer early this afternoon, bringing blue skies all along the coast for the first time in many days. High pressure building the second half of the week will finally bring hotter weather to the interior.
RAP mesoanalysis depicts a plume of drier air at 850 mb encroaching on Lower MI from the east, along the southern edge of the high over eastern Ontario. The entrainment of this drier air into the boundary layer is likely contributing to lower surface dewpoints over parts of southeast Lower MI, with a corresponding NW-SE gradient of surface-based instability across the Lower Peninsula.
644 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) The mid to upper-level ridge will continue to moves eastward with the ridge axis expected to be over the region late tonight into tomorrow morning. However, due to areas of vorticity in the lower levels moving over the area tomorrow, a stray shower or two can't be ruled out over the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads during the afternoon hours.
747 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 A wave of low pressure could bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.
1018 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 Persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.
With latest model guidance suggesting that the local area will remain within a regime of weak flow aloft and no synoptic scale forcing for ascent between an upper low (located south of the AL Gulf Coast) and a ridge (centered across the eastern Great Lakes), conditions will remain dry overnight. The combination of light ESE-calm flow, a humid boundary layer (featuring dewpoints in the lower 60s) and clearing skies will promote the development of patchy fog in valleys and other locations that received measurable rainfall earlier today.
Dry conditions will continue for most of the area into this weekend with generally cooler than average late May to early June temperatures. Water vapor shows a closed low centered over far southern Nevada and slowly moving into Arizona. The upper level low has also brought slightly cooler temperatures with current temperatures 1 to 5 degrees cooler than this time yesterday.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Evening/ The northern nose of a mid level ridge centered over Mexico is generating enough subsidence to mitigate convective development this afternoon. A few storms may reach our northwest counties Thursday evening, which may warrant POPs for areas from Bowie to Breckenridge after 6 PM Thursday.
633 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Thunderstorms are developing across the higher terrain of New Mexico to the west. The remnants of the High Plains convection will move to the east-northeast this evening with the remnants likely moving into western Oklahoma late evening into the overnight.
Our unsettled weather pattern and warmer than average temperatures continue through the short term. Deterministic and ensembles agree on a ridging pattern across the central and eastern CONUS with a trough in the western CONUS and mid level low centered over CA/AZ this evening.
The opportunity for precipitation persists on Thursday, driven by the progression of the next upper-level trough within the southwesterly flow, originating from New Mexico and advancing into the West Central High Plains.
Favorable environmental conditions and the proximity of the upper-level trough to the island chain are anticipated to result in the continued generation of showers and thunderstorms in the local waters and near the island chain.
639 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) An upper level ridge has moved over Texas and will move slowly to the east through the short term period. The low level flow is from the southeast keeping a warm, moist airmass in place. The southeasterly flow in the low levels will lead to partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer with lows near normal Thursday morning from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. Temperatures will be near normal with highs from the middle 80s to the lower 90s.
809 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure will remain over the region with dry and warm conditions through the end of the week.
610 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) The overall synoptic weather pattern will feature a mid/upper ridge axis in firm control of the CWA through the short-range forecast period. Slightly more southeasterly flow will keep overnight lows slightly warmer than the past few nights.
846 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 (Tonight) High pressure will remain to the north through the night, continuing the moist onshore flow. High temperatures for this afternoon will peak in the lower to mid 80s. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s along the coast and for areas near the St Johns River.
517 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023 19z surface analysis had weak trough from central ND to southeast WY with lee trough from central MT to southeast WY. Main upper low over western AZ. Surface boundary intersecting the Black Hills/lee trough focusing weak convection per regional radar loop.
Just like last several days, more widespread storms will be coming off of the High Plains tonight, especially across the TX Panhandle into Western OK. Both ECMWF and GFS agree that upper ridging will be in place from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Sun morning. Meanwhile, a weak upper trough will extend from the central Rockies down into the Southern Plains. Convection across the high plains is expected to propagate to the east some towards central KS late tonight, by think most of this will wane before making to the central KS locations.
806 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure over the New England Coast is expected to extend a ridge back west over the local area through Thursday.
616 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (This Afternoon thru Thursday) Our area remains in weak ridging/nebulous flow aloft downstream from increasing SW flow over the southern High Plains ahead of upper low over the Southwest in the subtropical flow.
Deep moisture associated with the area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico led to bands of showers and thunderstorms moving onshore throughout the afternoon today, with large areas of 4-6 inches of storm total rainfall being observed across an area from southern Pinellas County through Manatee County and into western DeSoto County. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track with at least a couple more days of deep moisture and widespread showers and thunderstorms as the area of low pressure meanders around the Gulf.
A broad area of low pressure over the West Coast will maintain strong onshore flow, along with a persistent and deep marine layer through Thursday.
1008 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure over the New England Coast is expected to extend a ridge back west over the local area through Thursday.
Early this morning, scattered activity had developed across southeast NE and southwest IA, likely on the nose of the low level jet. Low temperatures again in the lower to mid 60s.
For Friday, the system in the Gulf should slide southward and put our area in a warmer window along with the typical summertime hit and miss showers and storms.
There is also a weak upper trough off the coast that will move into Oregon on Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain Thursday afternoon. A short wave trough in the base of the main Pacific trough is forecast to come inland across Oregon Thursday and southwest Idaho Thursday night, then shift east of us Friday. This short wave trough will help develop thunderstorms in southern-most zones again Thursday, while others again form in the central Idaho Mountains and Boise Mountains along the moist axis which has shifted eastward.
Currently, a broad upper ridge sits over the eastern CONUS with a broad upper trough just off the west coast. Southerly flow at the mid to upper levels is advecting moisture into the Northern Plains ahead of a developing, weak upper level low. The low will continue to move northward from the Four Corners region through Colorado this afternoon. What this means for us: There will be weak upper level flow as we sit underneath a broad ridge.
Coverage will stay on the low side, so not everyone will see appreciable rainfall *Temperatures will remain well above normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s Today Another warm day is on tap with slightly higher humidity. Early morning dewpoints across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois were already in the lower 60s and latest hi-res models maintain this higher corridor of moisture (upper 50s to low 60s) through the day.
433 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 A large area of high pressure at the surface and aloft to the north of Pennsylvania will continue our dry, low humidity pattern through Friday with temperatures rising to near-record levels in some areas Friday afternoon.
134 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Weak wave of low pressure may bring isolated showers this afternoon across NC, but most will stay dry.
1159 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) An upper level ridge has moved over Texas and will move slowly to the east through the short term period. The low level flow is from the southeast keeping a warm, moist airmass in place. The southeasterly flow in the low levels will lead to partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer with lows near normal Thursday morning from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. Temperatures will be near normal with highs from the middle 80s to the lower 90s.
132 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure over the New England Coast is expected to extend a ridge back west over the local area through Thursday. Another ridge will build south through the Great Lakes Thursday night through Friday night.
The low down to our south will begin to work its way northward today into Utah and Colorado. At the same time, the troughing off the coast of the PNW eventually ejects a low that makes it to western Idaho on Friday. There will still be showers and storms in the Central Mountains today, though this appears to be more influenced by the incoming trough.
1206 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) The overall synoptic weather pattern will feature a mid/upper ridge axis in firm control of the CWA through the short-range forecast period. Slightly more southeasterly flow will keep overnight lows slightly warmer than the past few nights.
-Warmer than average temperatures continue, with highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s. Latest cluster analysis is nearly in lockstep depicting a potent ridge aloft retrograding westward into the Plains moving into the weekend.
By Friday, drier air should already be advecting westward into central IL as high pressure and an associated dry air mass currently over the northeast US migrates westward, limiting shower chances in east-central IL.
133 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 We begin the short term in the lower 580s DM on the H5 chart, and we end the short term around the same. The high over the Upper Ohio Valley retrogrades over the Great Lakes with time, and offers the predominant influence upon our FA. We ultimately, with time, see a return to the northerly component as this retrogression occurs, with low level winds backing to northeast, and this will keep dew points effectively tamed in the lower half of the 60s to finish out the work week, before a nice dive back into the 50s to begin the weekend (as the northeasterlies commence).
243 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Today and Tonight: A low pressure system is expected to spin over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today, with an axis of better moisture pivoting around it and across our forecast area through the afternoon.
The upper level height pattern will slowly transition into a more organized Omega block ridge Thursday. No significant changes in forecast trends through the rest of the workweek as a 584 dam H5 blocked ridge begins to unlock, gradually retrograding toward the Great Lakes over the next 24 hours. 12Z KDTX RAOB sampled the highest morning PWAT in over a week given weak low-level confluence/ThetaE advection. Thickness contraction commences over the weekend as an eastern Canadian longwave trough dives southward and closes off over the Northeast.
Much of the period should feature mostly clear or clear skies, with at best a stray shower or weak storm or two along the higher terrain of our border with RNK this afternoon or early evening. Highs today look to reach into the mid- and upper 80s in the lower elevations, with mainly 70s in the mountains.
Yack Key Forecast Messages: * Very warm/hot inland Friday through the weekend but with lower humidity levels * Continuation of the primarily dry pattern On Friday, drier easterly low level flow up to 850 mb and inland footprint of drying influence of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will shunt the instability axis well inland and likely preclude the threat for any showers outside of the CWA. The main story will be the hot temperatures inland, reaching the lower to locally mid 90s. Lakeside locales will reach the lower to mid 70s thanks to onshore flow through the day.
The best dynamics associated with the trough will skirt along the NV/OR/CA border with the potential for any shower and storms that develop to persist later into this evening.
Otherwise, rain-free conditions return tonight through Friday with ridging aloft, keeping seasonable temperatures in place.
With recent data pointing toward more of this remaining west of the forecast area, will keep POPs in the low chance category.
Upper high max values exist across NY state and also south of Baja Cal. For the near term temps, the upper high over NY will be moving westward.
344 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure remains over the region through Friday.
This Evening/Tonight Currently, a closed low is situated off the eastern NC coast and will continue to remain merely stationary as the synoptic pattern evolves with troughing to the west. Model guidance suggests that instability (MLCAPE near 500 j/kg) will remain limited across the region with lower PWAT and PoP values focused along the higher terrain.
(Today and tonight) Precipitation chances ramp up today as the upper level ridge breaks down. After the MCS dissipates late tonight (with the low level jet going, confidence is low in far east / how late into the night this system will keep going), CAMs suggest a lull in activity into Friday morning.
(Today through Friday Night ) Given a blocking pattern, the weather has not changed much from day to day.
(Today through Friday Night) Mid/upper level ridging over the Southern Plains will help to keep things mostly quiet across SE TX through the end of the work week.
Aloft, already starting to see local effects of the retrograding ridge with 01.
Temperatures across the area have been able to warm into the low to mid 80s, and with diminishing cloud cover, expect temperatures warm a few degrees further by late this afternoon. The eastward shift in rain chances will coincide with the main upper low lifting into the southern Plains, providing better southwest flow over our area Thursday afternoon and Friday.