Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
504 AM MDT Sat Nov 4 2023 Induced upper level ridging has built in across the CWA ahead of another wave of Pacific moisture coming down from the GOA. The long wave trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen throughout the day with increasing divergence aloft. The PFJ looks to dip south to enhance the vort max of the trough that will push some mid level moisture into the western CWA west of the Divide. Otherwise, a cold front will drop quickly through the CWA into Sunday that will drop temperatures a couple of degrees and still above average, but the main impact being that of increased winds due to a tightened gradient.
628 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 Temperatures will gradually warm this weekend as high pressure overspreads the area. Only fly in the ointment so to speak will be the onshore movement of altocu and possibly stratocu clouds this morning as a coastal trof, aka inverted sfc trof, makes it's closest approach, still remaining offshore, to the Carolina Coasts. Skies should improve tonight as an approaching positively tilted mid-level trof, helps drive the coastal trof, and developing low pressure, back well offshore by sunrise Sun. Otherwise, light N winds continue with temps a bit warmer than Saturday. highs Sunday in the low/mid 70s, with lows Sunday night ranging through the 40s.
though warmer day. Temperatures still should top out in the lower to mid 80s.
Behind this trough, skies will remain clear due to increased subsidence aloft. Due to the low RHs, updates were made to the fire graphic to show central Mississippi placed under a "Limited" threat for fire danger.
913 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 Temperatures will gradually warm this weekend as high pressure overspreads the area. Only fly in the ointment so to speak will be the onshore movement of altocu and possibly stratocu clouds this morning as a coastal trof, aka inverted sfc trof, makes it's closest approach, still remaining offshore, to the Carolina Coasts. Skies should improve tonight as an approaching positively tilted mid-level trof, helps drive the coastal trof, and developing low pressure, back well offshore by sunrise Sun. Otherwise, light N winds continue with temps a bit warmer than Saturday. highs Sunday in the low/mid 70s, with lows Sunday night ranging through the 40s.
Water vapor imagery highlights a short wave trough sliding east across the Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Hawk Channel west of the Seven Mile Bridge, and the Straits of Florida. A strong high pressure system centered just off the Mid- Atlantic states will support moderate to fresh northeast breezes today.
The increase in cloudiness may have some impact temperatures late in the afternoon, mainly in far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, but the latest short-term guidance does not have hourly temperatures - and thus, the high temperatures - more than a degree or two difference from what is currently forecast.
818 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 High pressure to the north and a stalled boundary across the Florida Straits is keeping a tighter pressure gradient across the local area, bringing some gusty NE winds in the afternoon and evening.
At the surface, high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic States is expected to retrograde across the Gulf South today into tonight. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the 60s, except for the lower 70s at the beaches.
A lull in the precipitation is expected Sunday afternoon and evening, except in the Glacier Region, thanks to a brief upper level ridge.
600 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 (Today through Sunday) A warm, dry zonal flow aloft and a moist southerly flow in the lower levels prevail this weekend.
621 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 (Today) High pressure remains layered from the mid Atlantic states SW into the SE region this early Sat morning, while a near zonal flow pattern is in place aloft. This is translating into slightly warmer temps across the area compared to the last few mornings, with current temps mainly in the upper 30s/mid 40s. With sfc winds turning more to the S/SW later today, afternoon temps will also rebound some versus the last few days, with highs climbing more into the lower 70s/near 70F, under mostly sunny skies.
Conditions are expected to dry out later this afternoon with the quick exit of the low and more northwesterly flow taking over. Look for afternoon highs to return to the low to mid 80s after lows in the 30s to 40s that morning.
640 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 Key Messages: 1) Temperatures will continue to increase through mid-week until a cold front takes us back to normal. 2) The next best chance (30-50%) for measurable rainfall will arrive with the mid-week cold front. A weak cold front associated with passing mid-level vorticity maxima currently extends from west central Illinois southwest through central Missouri. Otherwise, today will be another warm day with widespread 60s forecast despite this morning's cold frontal passage and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Skies will clear overnight tonight and winds will lighten tonight as high pressure moves into the area.
321 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 A weak cold front will move through the region tonight. High pressure will then build in Sunday and Sunday night before moving off to the east.
Weak, low-amplitude mid and upper level troughing extends from the Northern Rockies into the Lower MS Valley this morning, with a weak vort max passing within across OK and AR. Otherwise, high temperatures will peak in the upper 70s to near 80 across much of the area (cooler over SE OK and SW AR, esp given more cloud cover). On the cooler side, it was 41 in Monroe, surrounded by many lower 40s from Magnolia and Camden to Ruston. Lows overnight will continue trending warmer as well with far fewer 40s and lots of 50s to start the day.
1255 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 (Today through Sunday) A warm, dry zonal flow aloft and a moist southerly flow in the lower levels prevail this weekend.
Southerly flow in the low-levels will continue to warm and moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere.
(This evening through Sunday) One more round of cooler overnight temperatures are in store for West Central Texas, ranging in the mid 40s to mid 50s overnight tonight into Sunday morning. With this cloud cover sticking around for much of the day Sunday, slightly cooler high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are expected for Sunday.
309 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 (Issued 309 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023) Tonight through Sunday: High pressure will drift south tonight. Low pressure approaching from the Plains will bring increasing southerly winds to southern WI on Sunday afternoon.
Warming trend will continue for Sunday as an upper level ridge stays over the region. The low level flow will be slightly stronger Sunday night due to low pressure over the southern high plains.
A cold front currently extends from just north of St.
Modest northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through Sunday with a slow moving upper low off of Baja California.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure that stretched from western IA into central WI. Very weak low pressure was situated over northern Upper MI and the eastern Dakotas. A warm front extended from the Dakotas low through southwest MN. As this ridge of high pressure shifts to our east tonight, a return flow will develop over northeast WI and the resulting push of WAA will bring a quick increase in clouds in the process. Forecast soundings indicate some loss of ice at times, thus there could be a wintry mix of light snow, flurries, drizzle and freezing drizzle across the northwoods. In addition, models lift the aforementioned warm front into northern WI which should provide enough lift to bring a chance of light rain generally along and north of Hwy 29 Sunday afternoon.
Upper ridge axis has or is on the verge of shifting into Wyoming early this afternoon. Despite the cooler air infiltrating the region, snow levels take their time decreasing.
Expect highs Sunday to be a few degrees higher than today, in the low to mid 60s, as a result.
Quiet weather will continue to dominate the short term period as high pressure builds overhead today. The ridge will flatten by late this evening, leading to a transition to zonal flow across the Western Slope. While the probability for us to see any precipitation with this first wave is low, the jet associated with the parent Pacific trough will nudge into the region, seeing winds increase once more. Temperatures through the period will be on the rise under the ridge of high pressure and mild westerly flow.
High pressure will be overhead tonight through Sunday morning. This high has brought a beautiful day to our region today, with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s and mostly sunny skies. Tonight, we should cool off quickly to the lower 40s then settle into the mid to upper 30s for lows as dew forms and gradually drops the surface dewpoint. Thankfully, the wind forecast would only reduce apparent temperatures to the lower 60s, so this really should be an ideal day for enjoying outside.
The northerly wind shift will usher in ever so slightly cooler weather Sunday afternoon for those locations.
1242 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 (Rest of Today) Temperatures dropped to around freezing in some locations again earlier this morning. This is being helped by some stronger warm air advection ahead of a fairly amplified trough axis that will be moving into north central Missouri aloft. Forecast 925 mb temperatures continue to trend slightly warmer with the latest forecast.
1241 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 Key Messages: 1) Temperatures will continue to increase through mid-week until a cold front takes us back to normal. 2) The next best chance (30-50%) for measurable rainfall will arrive with the mid-week cold front. A weak cold front associated with passing mid-level vorticity maxima currently extends from west central Illinois southwest through central Missouri. Otherwise, today will be another warm day with widespread 60s forecast despite this morning's cold frontal passage and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Skies will clear overnight tonight and winds will lighten tonight as high pressure moves into the area.
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC 1254 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 Temperatures will gradually warm this weekend as high pressure remains centered across the Carolinas. Only fly in the ointment so to speak will be the onshore movement of alto-cu and possibly stratocu clouds this morning as a coastal trof, aka inverted sfc trof, makes it's closest approach, still remaining offshore, to the Carolina Coasts. Skies should improve tonight as an approaching positively tilted mid-level trof, helps drive the coastal trof, and developing low pressure, back well offshore by sunrise Sun. Otherwise, light N winds continue with temps a bit warmer than Saturday. highs Sunday in the low/mid 70s, with lows Sunday night ranging through the 40s.
The afternoon surface analysis shows a high just off to the south across the Tennessee Valley and a weak low pressure system and attendant cold front moving into the Ohio Valley. This will stifle the larger temperature splits between the ridges and valleys. Overall lows are in the mid to upper 30s for the valleys and the upper 30s to lower 40s for the ridges. On Sunday, the previously mentioned cold front pushes east, leaving a weak northwest flow at the surface. This leaves some questions on the highs, but opted to bump up a degree given the warmer day seen today. This, along with nearby high pressure, supports decent ridge/valley splits, with overnight lows in the mid- and upper 30s for the valleys and upper 30s to lower 40s on the ridges under clear skies.
Overall precipitation amounts are expected to be light with areas along the Highway 36 corridor seeing the most rainfall, up to one-tenth of an inch.
A few isolated light showers could sneak into far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas tonight as the trough axis passes by, but better forcing will stay northeast of the local region and thus better rain chances will stay confined mainly to southern Missouri with the passing wave.
1031 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 (Issued 1031 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023) Light winds and decreasing mid and high clouds are expected today with high pressure overhead. Winds will be light under high pressure, with high temps within a couple degrees of normal this afternoon.
245 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 High pressure will build in tonight into Sunday with quiet weather conditions.
(This afternoon through Sunday) Mild daytime conditions are back in the forecast with high pressure building back towards the Lower MS River Valley region. Temperatures quickly rose this morning, and the highs were adjusted upwards with some areas likely to reach the upper 70s in the south today, then more area-wide tomorrow. There will be some mid-level clouds associated with the trough, but that's about it.
An upper trough will slip through the mid state later tonight and Sunday morning, so look for a few hours of increased cloudiness, although tomorrow's highs will still be about the same as today's.
Weak pooling of moisture will encourage the development of at least patchy fog on what will otherwise be a clear night, especially north of the low where weak easterly winds will encourage a slight upslope component. A deepening lee trough across the central High Plains will swing winds around to the south tomorrow afternoon.
Discussion: An upper level short wave and a dying cold front will approach tonight. Dew points look to continue their gradual uptrend for the short term period, so relative humidity values, while still on the low side Sunday afternoon, are expected to be higher than today and thus less of a fire weather concern.
Rain will continue through early Sunday morning with the highest precipitation amounts in the mountains of north central Idaho and northwest Montana.
The weak cold front is currently moving through the far southern Texas Panhandle, basically on track with the forecast. A weak surface cyclone was positioned over the northern Rolling Plains at 07z, with SSW surface flow over much of the Caprock and a moist upslope easterly component observed over the far SE TX Panhandle. A modest deepening of the aforementioned surface cyclone is expected this afternoon ahead of a weak southward-drifting frontal boundary across the central TX Panhandle into NW OK. The surface cyclone will drift eastward tonight as the frontal boundary washes out with seasonable low temperatures expected area-wide, but another bout of patchy overnight fog will be possible tonight over the SE TX Panhandle into the Rolling Plains with fairly rich surface moisture remaining in place through Sunday morning.
(Tonight) Temperatures have climbed into the upper 60s to around the lower 70s across northern Alabama and southern Tennessee as of 2 PM this afternoon. Warm air advection ahead of an amplified upper level trough axis over northeastern Arkansas and western Tennessee continues to be the primary mechanism producing this warm air advection over the area. Cloud cover associated with the weak surface front (associated with the upper level trough axis pushing southeast from Arkansas/western Tennessee) is expected to move into these same areas just after midnight. All of these factors should keep temperatures from falling much below the lower to mid 40s in those areas primarily.
The low track is well to the north, across Lake Superior into southern Canada, so the best f-gen forcing and bulk of the precip will miss southern Lower Michigan. The low will track well off to our north however, sliding east across Lake Superior into Ontario.
With afternoon mixing less hindered under clear skies, have opted to trend on the lower end of guidance for dewpoints today, and blended in a healthy dose of HRRR and NBM10. Our gradual warming trend under a moderating (and moistening) airmass will continue through the weekend, with highs today topping out in the lower-70s, and just a degree or two warmer tomorrow.
A mid-upper level ridge building over the state will lead to warming temperatures at the surface. Fog will also be possible as dewpoint depressions become reduced, light winds prevail, and moisture lingers in the lower levels.
So, much warmer air aloft moving into the area, along with decent mixing.
315 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 -Lingering impacts from freezing drizzle across portions of northwestern MN. Both the HREF and NBM show non-zero freezing precipitation chances, and the NBM has probabilities of FZRA as high as 70 percent in the northern Red River Valley. Impacts from any freezing rain should be fairly short lived as warmer temperatures quickly move into even the northern counties by late morning.
238 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 High pressure will be in control through tonight.
This will allow fairly efficient cooling tonight with a warmer afternoon Sunday.
There is little moisture in the lower levels, but still plenty of cloudiness.
727 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 A weak cold front will move through the region tonight. High pressure will then build in Sunday and Sunday night before moving off to the east.
The low track is well to the north, across Lake Superior into southern Canada, so the best f-gen forcing and bulk of the precip will miss southern Lower Michigan.
In the wake of the trough, northerly to northwesterly flow aloft will briefly return for the remainder of the period. At the surface, a large, sprawling ridge of high pressure centered over the Appalachians continues to stretch across the southeast US, helping to maintain a light northerly to northeasterly flow pattern across our area. Subsidence from this high, as well as a continued lack of deep-layer moisture (PWATs generally around 0. Lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 40s inland, and the low to mid 50s along the coast. /22 (Sunday night through Saturday) The early to mid part of the week will feature predominately zonal flow aloft as upper ridging slowly builds across the Gulf of Mexico. Eventually, upper troughing takes shape across the western U.
657 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 (This evening through Sunday) One more round of cooler overnight temperatures are in store for West Central Texas, ranging in the mid 40s to mid 50s overnight tonight into Sunday morning. With this cloud cover sticking around for much of the day Sunday, slightly cooler high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are expected for Sunday.
A short wave trough will move generally west to east on Sunday. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Sunday) Mild daytime conditions are back in the forecast with high pressure building back towards the Lower MS River Valley region. Temperatures quickly rose this morning, and the highs were adjusted upwards with some areas likely to reach the upper 70s in the south today, then more area-wide tomorrow. There will be some mid-level clouds associated with the trough, but that's about it.
Still looking at temps to bottom out in the lower 30s, but could see temps hold once these high clouds from the northwest work their way into the area overnight and early Sunday morning. Wagner (Issued 309 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023) Tonight through Sunday: High pressure will drift south tonight. Low pressure approaching from the Plains will bring increasing southerly winds to southern WI on Sunday afternoon.
Slightly warmer and drier than normal conditions are still favored under mostly zonal flow for the remainder of the week.
718 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 Areas of mist and freezing drizzle continue across portions of the area, primarily southern Beltrami and northern Hubbard Counties. Temperatures are generally in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees for areas north of Highway 200, with warmer temps in the 30s to low 40s to the south. Made slight adjustments to weather grids to extend the temporal footprint of drizzle/freezing drizzle into the late evening. -Lingering impacts from freezing drizzle across portions of northwestern MN. Both the HREF and NBM show non-zero freezing precipitation chances, and the NBM has probabilities of FZRA as high as 70 percent in the northern Red River Valley. Impacts from any freezing rain should be fairly short lived as warmer temperatures quickly move into even the northern counties by late morning.
Another clear day is in-store for tomorrow, though our temperatures will be slightly cooler (low to mid 70s) due to a weak cold front that will stall along the northern portion of the Mid-South. This cold front will then transition into a warm front tomorrow evening resulting in temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s trough at least mid-week.
644 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 High pressure will build in tonight into Sunday with quiet weather conditions.
638 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 -Lingering impacts from freezing drizzle across portions of northwestern MN. Both the HREF and NBM show non-zero freezing precipitation chances, and the NBM has probabilities of FZRA as high as 70 percent in the northern Red River Valley. Impacts from any freezing rain should be fairly short lived as warmer temperatures quickly move into even the northern counties by late morning.
932 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 High pressure will continue overnight. With afternoon mixing less hindered under clear skies, have opted to trend on the lower end of guidance for dewpoints today, and blended in a healthy dose of HRRR and NBM10. Our gradual warming trend under a moderating (and moistening) airmass will continue through the weekend, with highs today topping out in the lower-70s, and just a degree or two warmer tomorrow.
658 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 (Tonight) Temperatures have climbed into the upper 60s to around the lower 70s across northern Alabama and southern Tennessee as of 2 PM this afternoon. Warm air advection ahead of an amplified upper level trough axis over northeastern Arkansas and western Tennessee continues to be the primary mechanism producing this warm air advection over the area. Cloud cover associated with the weak surface front (associated with the upper level trough axis pushing southeast from Arkansas/western Tennessee) is expected to move into these same areas just after midnight. All of these factors should keep temperatures from falling much below the lower to mid 40s in those areas primarily.
These clouds have kept temperatures on the slightly cooler side with current values reporting in the upper 70s.
943 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 A weak cold front will move through the region tonight. High pressure will then build in Sunday and Sunday night before moving off to the east.
308 PM MDT Sat Nov 4 2023 Key Messages: 1) Drier/warmer/windier on Sunday, with critical fire weather conditons over the southern I-25 corridor. Flat westerly flow aloft continues Sunday, with lee trough deepening over eastern Colorado.
Currently - A broad modest high pressure system over the eastern United States is driving moderate to fresh north northeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters this evening. While local soundings indicated some lower level lift, there was a blocking inversion based around 850 mb. Forecast soundings suggest that the lower levels will finally dry out some as the old boundary is flushed southward. A broad ridge over the eastern United States will maintain moderate to fresh north northeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
1137 PM MDT Sat Nov 4 2023 Key Messages: 1) Drier/warmer/windier on Sunday, with critical fire weather conditons over the southern I-25 corridor. Flat westerly flow aloft continues Sunday, with lee trough deepening over eastern Colorado.
Based on this and ongoing drought, issued Fire Danger Statement for SE 1/2 of CWA where RH will be the lowest.
202 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 Dry high pressure will continue over the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia through most of the week.
Clouds should begin to clear the area later this morning and a lovely early November day will follow, as afternoon highs climb into the low to mid 70s.
132 AM EDT Sun Nov 5 2023 High pressure will build in tonight into Sunday with quiet weather conditions.
330 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 Weak high pressure will build into the area today and then move off to the east Monday. This high will offer dry weather with a warming trend as a southerly flow develops on the back side of the departing high.