Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday/ Slightly warmer temperatures are in store today across North and Central Texas thanks to the expanding ridge currently shifting northward out of Mexico. This ridge will settle across New Mexico and far West Texas throughout the next few days, yielding the return of widespread triple digit heat. This low will effectively keep a stout low-level jet in place, thus, continuing with the breezy conditions similar to what we experienced yesterday. As the low migrates east, a cold front will slide southward into Oklahoma later today, likely stalling just shy of the Red River tonight. This cold front will become the focus for a few showers and storms this afternoon.
Meanwhile, high pressure will push temperatures back to several degrees above average by mid week, with near record heat possible this weekend. Ridging currently centered over Chihuahua will begin to move northward after today setting up over New Mexico and later this weekend over Arizona.
Water vapor pictures are showing the upper trough moving across the CWA at this time. There is decent subsidence behind the trough for the rest of tonight into Tuesday morning. The stronger winds should briefly affect the high foothills; mainly. The upper low continues to move northeast into south central Wyoming this afternoon. The resultant tail end of the trof is moving east and northeast across northwest Colorado with a band of showers and thunderstorms. Large scale QG descent will be spreading over northern Colorado behind the trof this evening and through the night period. This will increase the westerly winds over the higher mountains and exposed east slopes with potential gusts from 40-60 mph. Tuesday is shaping up as the coolest day of the week behind the upper trof with low level cooling and shallow upslope flow.
1121 PM MDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will build over northern Chihuahua through tomorrow, and will meander over the Borderland through the weekend.
Key Points: - Another warm day today before cooler air moves in Wednesday. Ascent and moisture advection due to a strong low-level jet and a surging cold front moving into the area are producing some showers and thunderstorms this morning. Winds ahead of the trough should remain gusty as they slowly veer to the west. Areas further north and west should see slightly lower temperatures as the surface boundary will move through earlier in the morning, advecting in cooler and drier air.
Dry and near normal conditions are expected into the weekend, with temperatures trending a bit warmer during the weekend. Typical late summer weather this weak with A few weak upper level perturbations expected though mid-week, and warming into the weekend as the subtropical high builds north and west, influencing our area this weekend with warmer and lower humid conditions. The warming trend continues and today, the NBM reveals a 95 percent chance of 85 degrees or warmer in Ukiah, for example.
Key Messages: - Much cooler and windy today with gusts to 45mph or higher possible.
Dry and near normal conditions are expected into the weekend, with temperatures trending a bit warmer during the weekend. These perturbations are a bit too weak to get much convective activity and winds are expected to be relatively light, except some gusts to 20 to 25 mph on ridge tops at night. However, low ceilings to MVFR/IFR could still be possible this morning, especially around Humboldt Bay, before heating burns off the low clouds later in the morning. Widespread northerlies of 20-30 knots are forecast to continue to increase to 50% or more in aerial coverage into tonight in the outer waters as high pressure builds offshore.
Benign weather conditions should prevail across SoFlo today, with mainly periods of stratocu decks streaming across east coast areas, but mostly shallow and relatively stable as broad high pressure remains in control of the region. (Today through Wednesday) Generally dry and quiet weather will prevail for the foreseeable future as high pressure remains in place and dry air overspreads the area. High temperatures will peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon through the short term, but with the lower dew points, heat indices will struggle to break into the triple digits.
730 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 (Through Tonight) High pressure will be over the area through Tonight.
A bow-shaped high pressure system extends down the Appalachians, then east into the western North Atlantic. The southern and western flanks of this high are cellular. Rain has fallen in three short episodes in Key West, with a little better coverage (and a couple thunderstorms) noted across the Straits of Florida southwest of the Lower Keys. High pressure centered over the western Atlantic offshore from North Florida will maintain moderate easterly breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters today, with breezes gradually slackening tonight.
In terms of temperatures, daytime highs in the lower 90s areawide. High pressure over the southeast U. High pressure over the southeast U.
418 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Water vapor imagery early this morning shows a nice circulation across the western Dakotas associated with the upper level low. At the surface, initial frontal boundary has pushed east of the area, but secondary cold air push is back off to the northwest with much cooler temperatures and breezy/gusty north to northwest winds. This push of cooler air will work its way across the CWA through the day as 850mb temps drop to around +7C to +9C in the axis of coolest air. Will also see an area of low clouds push east across the area today underneath the upper low.
The valleys have only a 10 percent probability for thunderstorms, but that increases to 20 to 45 percent for the higher elevations and mountains, especially over the Bitterroot and Anaconda ranges.
442 AM MDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over northwest SD, with quasi-zonal flow covering much of the western CONUS. Radar returns show wrap around showers covering much of northeast WY, the northern Black Hills, and northwest SD, with relatively weak linear convection along the cold front across south central SD. Highs mostly in the 60s today, with a few locations in the lower 70s. Dry conditions along with a slow warming trend are expected mid to late week as a weak ridge slowly builds north across the western CONUS.
653 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday with mainly dry and hot conditions. Unsettled weather returns by the end of the week, along with cooler conditions by the weekend. 325 AM Update: A strong ridge overhead will bring very warm conditions to the area today again. With the ridge a bit more amplified compared to yesterday, temperatures and dew points will be a degree or two higher, along with plenty of sunshine. These advisories are mainly for the urban/valley locations, but very warm and humid conditions will be present at the higher elevations as well. Low temperatures will be above normal for this time of the year, but will actually be on the cooler side considering the heat during the day.
Water vapor imagery early this morning shows a nice circulation across the western Dakotas associated with the upper level low. At the surface, initial frontal boundary has pushed east of the area, but secondary cold air push is back off to the northwest with much cooler temperatures and breezy/gusty north to northwest winds. This push of cooler air will work its way across the CWA through the day as 850mb temps drop to around +7C to +9C in the axis of coolest air. Will also see an area of low clouds push east across the area today underneath the upper low.
The 12z map shows weak high pressure around 1019 mb near Valdosta GA which is expected to drift southward through tonight, but the mean layer ridge will remain just north of the area per model progs. Satellite imagery and guidance show plentiful high cirrus clouds through for today, spilling over an upper level ridge, but we still expect highs to push to about 90 deg inland and upper 80s at the coast. (Through Tonight) High pressure will be over the area through Tonight.
707 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 500 mb upper low moving thru western into central SD. Lingering showers/rain on backside of upper trough from Dickinson to near Devils Lake/Langdon. Now the main cooler air is well behind the wind shift and more tied to the 850 mb front and that is moving east as well and near a Hallock to just west of Grand Forks to Jamestown line. Winds behind this 850 mb increase from the north 20-30 mph and noticeably cooler air is present. 500 mb upper trough is moving slowly into western South Dakota and aloft there remains a south to north area of moisture that is maintaining clusters of showers and t-storms from Aberdeen SD area north to Jamestown to Devils Lake and into southern Manitoba.
818 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Hot and humid conditions are expected today and tomorrow under high pressure.
648 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 A dry slot ahead of the upper low has shifted the rain slightly westward this morning, while bringing some drying conditions to some eastern portions. Otherwise look for much cooler and breezy to windy conditions today. The threat for severe weather today is overall low as instability values are greatly diminished, and perhaps not high enough to compete with the high amounts of shear still in place. Breezy to perhaps windy northwest winds may be found today behind the mentioned cold front. Lows tonight will be cooler than normal, with many areas in the 40s. A fairly quiet zonal flow to weak ridging pattern sets up for the remainder of the work week.
Continued hot with small chances of showers and storms this High Impact Weather Potential. Large area of high pressure remains centered across the Eastern US. a complex area of low pressure continues to develop from Western Ontario thru the Northern and Central Plains. A surface cold front will slice across the region later Wednesday into early Wednesday night. However, a majority of guidance develops showers and embedded thunderstorms across the area during the afternoon and evening out ahead of the cold front.
Modest winds of 10 to 20 mph will occur over the higher terrain.
Key Messages: * Cooler weather expected through the rest of the week and into the weekend behind this morning's cold front.
608 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 (Today through Wednesday night) The expected weak cold front is still on track to move in through the early morning hours of today as models project the upper-level trough to continue progressing east into the Great Plains. Current guidance expect temperatures to stick to the high 80s to mid 90s. Heading into the overnight and Wednesday, model agreement is still expecting high pressure to begin building back in with the 500mb center over Western Texas and Southeastern New Mexico. With the high pressure building back in, hot and dry conditions are expected to continue with afternoon temperatures returning low to mid 90s for tomorrow.
High pressure aloft was centered over northern Mexico this morning.
However, the region should remain in a neutral pattern today, before troughing returns overhead by Wednesday. This weak trough will be associated with a weak cold front, that unfortunately won't work it's way into the region. As for rain chances today, there is still plenty of moisture overhead in the wake of the closed low. /44/ (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) By Thu, upper ridging will continue to be anchored across the far West Texas Hill Country into Eastern New Mexico with the ridge axis extending eastward into East Texas.
520 AM MDT Tue Sep 5 2023 West-northwest flow aloft will prevail today behind an upper level trough moving across the northern plains. Subsidence behind last evening's cold front brought drier conditions and gusty downslope winds overnight across parts of the Front Range. It will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 70s across northeast Colorado. With less wind and continued dry airmass, temperatures should be cooler tonight with mid 40s to lower 50s across northeast Colorado. Dry light westerly flow aloft will continue across Colorado into this weekend on the north side of an upper level high.
A few storms could become severe this evening with damaging wind and large hail being the main threats, but the highest risk for severe weather remains northwest of the forecast area. Even though temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today, the increased humidity will cause heat index values to rise into the mid 90s to low 100s for one more day- especially along the Mississippi River Valley and its tributaries. Its cold front will could kick off a line of storms as it passes through the forecast area this evening, but a lot of the uncertainties discussed in previous forecast discussions remain. South winds will increase again with hot temperatures ahead of a cold frontal passage Tuesday night.
626 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 (Today and tonight) Yet another day of record heat for Lubbock is in the cards even as a decaying cold front slices through much of the region later this morning. Dewpoints east of this trough will only tick higher in the hours ahead with some upper 60s likely reaching the southern Rolling Plains shortly after sunrise. The cold front meanwhile should hang up in the Rolling Plains by midday and likely lead to a triple point along a mesolow in the Snyder vicinity later this afternoon. Elsewhere, the cooler air will lag the front as it often does, so Lubbock's record high of 102 may still be tied or broken despite light NE winds. Lows tonight will be cooler across the board on steady E-NE winds.
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over eastern parts of the state as low pressure is approaching from the northwest. This has also resulted in a small to moderate ridge to valley temperature split as readings range from the low 70s in the thermal belts to the mid 60s in the most sheltered spots. They all depict the eastern ridge further weakening today and tonight on account of the troughiness and mid level energy moving into the Ohio Valley from the west. This initial foray is bolstered by the end of the period, at mid week, by a better defined trough inbound from the Upper Midwest for Wednesday afternoon.
629 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 (Today and tonight) Quiet conditions will prevail through the near term as an upper level ridge overhead slowly breaks down. High temperatures will be in the low 90s.
Onshore flow will continue for cooler than average conditions. High pressure then begins to build back over the region later in the week, bringing a gradual warming and drying trend that will continue until the next front approaches by the end of the weekend.
606 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 (Today and tonight) Low level jet bringing better low level moisture back to West Central Texas early this morning with dewpoint at Junction climbing into the lower 70s. Speaking of temperatures, with the upper ridge building a little more into place, temperatures look to climb another degree or two.
Otherwise, a very mild night was ongoing with much of the still in the low to mid 80s at this hour. This trough axis will be a focal point for additional thunderstorm development late this afternoon into the evening.
Weak ridging builds over the Treasure State as the Pacific low exits eastward. Warmer and drier conditions develop today, lasting through the rest of the week. Weak ridging propagates over the Treasure State in its wake, resulting in things settling down quite significantly for the remainder of the week.
1016 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Hot and humid conditions are expected today and tomorrow under high pressure.
A few storms could become severe this evening with damaging wind and large hail being the main threats, but the highest risk for severe weather remains northwest of the forecast area. Even though temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today, the increased humidity will cause heat index values to rise into the mid 90s to low 100s for one more day- especially along the Mississippi River Valley and its tributaries. Its cold front will could kick off a line of storms as it passes through the forecast area this evening, but a lot of the uncertainties discussed in previous forecast discussions remain. A cold front will move across the area this evening. Behind the cold front.
701 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Generally dry and quiet weather will prevail for the foreseeable future as high pressure remains in place and dry air overspreads the area. High temperatures will peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon through the short term, but with the lower dew points, heat indices will struggle to break into the triple digits.
A ridge of high pressure is building over northern Mexico, allowing heights to rise, and temperatures to increase.
Clouds increased from southwest to northeast and a few showers developed across the plateau and southern valley as moisture increases ahead of upper trough moving into middle Tennessee.
Visible satellite and radar imagery is showing a well defined circulation over south central Illinois with an upper low that the RAP shows lifting northeast by early this evening. Latest SPC mesoanalysis is showing MLCAPES of 2000-2500+ J/kg over western Missouri ahead of a cold front that HREF shows moving southeast across the CWA tonight. A upper ridge will move into the area for Wednesday and Wednesday night supplying dry weather. Temperatures will be at or below normal on Wednesday as cooler air moves in behind the front.
The higher mountains will also see breezy conditions. West-northwest flow aloft will prevail today behind an upper level trough moving across the northern plains. Subsidence behind last evening's cold front brought drier conditions and gusty downslope winds overnight across parts of the Front Range. It will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 70s across northeast Colorado. With less wind and continued dry airmass, temperatures should be cooler tonight with mid 40s to lower 50s across northeast Colorado. Dry light westerly flow aloft will continue across Colorado into this weekend on the north side of an upper level high.
158 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 High pressure brings dry weather with hot afternoons into Wednesday.
The giant upper level low starts to move across Canada on Thu, and will possibly create instability with showers and thunderstorms across the central Idaho mountains and the rest of the ID-MT border region, once again mostly evening and late overnight.
Lows will dip down into the upper 60s to lower 70s and highs will rise into the low to mid 90s Wednesday.
219 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Dry high pressure will linger over the region into Wednesday as the warming trend continues. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the latter half of the week as a cold front approaches. An upper ridge axis will continue to cross the region thru the period and maintain deeply dry air with relatively weak winds.
/13 (Now through Wednesday) An upper trof near the lower/mid Mississippi River valley weakens while advancing into the eastern states and becomes partially absorbed into a Plains upper trof which approaches the Great Lakes region. Highs today will be mostly in the lower 90s, then Wednesday will be a bit warmer with some locations reaching the mid 90s.
Hot and generally quiet conditions will persist tonight through the weekend as high pressure dominates the Borderland.
Synoptically, the Florida peninsula remains under a mid/upper level high pressure ridge extending across the Eastern US. After mid-week, some pockets of moisture should start to push to our area but not a lot of rainfall activity is expected to develop as PWAT values should remain on the low side according to climatology data, but some brief isolated showers cannot be ruled out. By the end of this week, additional moisture should return as the upper ridging weakens and a weak cold front is expected to approach north of the region. In terms of temperatures, near normal values expected, afternoon highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s and overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
High pressure is expected to stake claim over the area tomorrow and moisture will become more shallow as winds at the 925mb layer become NE by afternoon hours and usher in drier air. While rain chances will be lower than what has been observed today due to the high pressure, residual moisture and PVA could allow for some isolated development closer to the coast.
On Wednesday and Wednesday night, heights will rise slightly during the early morning hours, but will give way to another weak upper low pressure system.
By sunrise Wednesday skies should be mostly clear as the wave moves away and brief ridging pushes in. By the end of the weekend there is a hint of a trough dropping down from Canada. For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Northwest flow aloft has allowed for wildfire smoke to filter into the lower elevations east of the Continental Divide Tuesday morning. Scattered showers do break out over the higher terrain of northwest Wyoming by mid-afternoon before fading with the setting sun around 02Z/Wednesday.
Water vapor shows upper low over northwest SD, with quasi-zonal flow covering much of the western CONUS. Radar returns show wrap around showers covering much of northeast WY, the northern Black Hills, and northwest SD, with relatively weak linear convection along the cold front across south central SD. Highs mostly in the 60s today, with a few locations in the lower 70s. Dry conditions along with a slow warming trend are expected mid to late week as a weak ridge slowly builds north across the western CONUS.
Decent forcing provided by a cold front associated with these features, CAPE values of around 1500 J/kg, and PWATs of around 1. Given the late timing of the low and the front, the severe weather potential is limited, but some stronger storms are possible with damaging winds and some higher rainfall rates being the main threats.
1142 AM PDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the desert southwest through the week, which will lead to a warming trend over Central California. High pressure, though not remarkably strong for our area, will continue to build along the West Coast over the next several days.
242 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 2023 High pressure has become well established over northern Mexico and southern New Mexico, which leaves us in southwest flow. The cooler air mass brought in by the last system has given us a taste of fall. Due to the high pressure temperatures will climb a few degrees tomorrow. Deep southwest flow will persist across eastern Utah and western Colorado through the end of the work week as high pressure remains parked over southern New Mexico and western Texas. Combined with troughing over the Pacific Northwest, the mid-level height gradient will remain tightened overhead.
1209 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 (Today and tonight) Yet another day of record heat for Lubbock is in the cards even as a decaying cold front slices through much of the region later this morning. Dewpoints east of this trough will only tick higher in the hours ahead with some upper 60s likely reaching the southern Rolling Plains shortly after sunrise. The cold front meanwhile should hang up in the Rolling Plains by midday and likely lead to a triple point along a mesolow in the Snyder vicinity later this afternoon. Elsewhere, the cooler air will lag the front as it often does, so Lubbock's record high of 102 may still be tied or broken despite light NE winds. Lows tonight will be cooler across the board on steady E-NE winds.
CIMSS MIMIC TPW highlights a tight moisture gradient that extends over the Lower Keys, with much drier air in the Middle and Upper Keys. This moisture gradient explains why the majority of the activity has been near and west of the Lower Keys. Breezes have continued to decrease this afternoon as a ridge across the Southeast gradually weakens.
The front will make rather slow progress to the south through the night, but some cooler air will begin to filter in behind the front across the northern half of the forecast area, dropping overnight lows back into the low to mid 60s across northeast Oklahoma.