Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
817 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 The threat for severe weather continues through mid-day as an area of low pressure moves into the Florida panhandle. As the low continues the ENE propagation, this favorable axis continues to translate eastward with it, keeping the FL peninsula in a region where additional storms are possible. As the low pulls away later today and tonight, the severe threat will diminish. Another cold front arrives this weekend, finally clearing things out and ushering back in another round of cooler and drier weather for the start of the week.
Looking at water vapor imagery there is an upper level low currently centered over northern Utah. This low is bringing wrap around moisture to mainly our eastern areas from the eastern Snake Plain eastward to the Wyoming border. Models show this low moving slowly east today. However, with high pressure building in on Friday expect cooler morning lows with the mountains below freezing and the Snake plain, Arco Desert, and Eastern Magic valley in the low to mid 30s for morning lows on Friday morning. Expect dry conditions Friday with high pressure building in from the west.
Radar is showing a weak reflectivities as a weak trough moves through Tennessee. Remainder of the forecast is unchanged with more sunlight and warmer temperatures expected this afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper low eject east from the Rockies into the central/northern plains, with upper heights rising in response downstream along/east of the Mississippi river valley today.
As the low pressure moves along a frontal boundary over northeast Florida, winds will begin to pick up with the highest winds expected for southern locations in northeast Florida with wind gusts of 30mph possible, potentially 40mph. The low pressure will begin to move off into the Atlantic waters during the early afternoon. Highs on Thursday will range from around the high 60s to low 70s across inland southeast GA, to the low and mid 80s in the warm sector across north central FL.
612 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 (Today through Friday) The low pressure that brought some measurable rainfall across the region yesterday as well as some gusty winds will continue to move downstream today. In the wake of this feature, upper ridging will take shape through most of the short term period. West of I55, more insolation is anticipated so these areas are where the warmer temperatures will be found today with the coolest over the Mississippi Gulf Coast where low stratus may linger.
639 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 (Today through Friday Night ) An upper level ridge is over the central U. this morning with a large upper low over the Rockies. The upper ridge will move to the eastern U. by Thursday night as the upper low moves into the Plains. The upper low moves into the Midwest Friday and the upper ridge moves to the east coast. A cold front in the Plains will move through Arkansas Friday. Highs today and Friday will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s and cooler Friday night in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
1043 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Low pressure will drift over Florida to the Carolina coast this morning, bringing much-needed rainfall to parts of our region.
210 AM PDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Today will stay cooler as a northerly flow continues over the region.
The Pacific low pressure system will continue to move southeastward toward the central plains today, leaving a cool and moist east to northeast flow aloft over North-central and Southwest Montana. A Pacific low pressure system will continue moving southeastward through Wyoming into the central plains today while maintaining a cool and moist east to northeasterly flow aloft over the Northern Rockies. The easterly flow aloft loosens its grip on the Northern Rockies on Friday as the supporting low pressure system moves deeper into the plains. Ensembles are in fairly good agreement with a southwesterly flow aloft developing for the first part of the weekend followed by a period of ridging.
In the wake of a warm front that pushed northward through the Florida Keys island chain yesterday, warm and muggy conditions continue for the FLorida Keys. GOES-16 visibile satellite imagery highlights an extensive cirrostratus deck behind a departing broad area of low pressure now centered over northern Florida. The 12z sounding at KEY sampled marginally rising geopotential heights below 500 mb consistent with the low's departure, with a weak ridge of high pressure centered north of the Leeward Islands building westward. From synopsis, a low pressure system will continue to move northeastward and into the western Atlantic waters through tonight.
It's a mild start to our Thursday due to a warm front lifting northward through the area. For tonight, dry weather will continue as the aforementioned low pressure system spins further east.
After patchy frost across some interior valleys this morning, warmer temperatures are expected today under partly to mostly sunny skies.
The severe risk will be the highest with discrete storms. While more difficult to pin down the area at risk, the highway 30 corridor and points south are favored based on analogs of previous events.
After a brief warm-up today, it will be cooler on Friday, followed by warming again this weekend as offshore flow returns.
As a low approaches Friday night, another warm front will lift into the area bring showers and some storms.
*** Afternoon Discussion: Today into Friday: The lower pressure system centered over Wyoming and Colorado will continue to shift further southward, which will bring an end to rain showers that continue to linger around Petroleum county through about 03Z.
126 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Generally dry weather and near to above normal temperatures will continue today into tomorrow within the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system.
At the surface, northerlies have developed in the wake of the upper low with the surface front well offshore by this point. Expect clouds and potentially some intermixed drizzle/mist through Friday with continued isentropic upglide persisting in advance of the warm front. Temperatures on Friday will be a bit warmer especially over the western half of the area as the warm front is able to surge further inland. Wave heights at the beaches have subsided this morning and the high surf advisory has been allowed to expire; however, rip current risk will continue to be elevated through Friday.
After a brief warm-up today, it will be cooler on Friday, followed by warming again this weekend, as offshore flow returns.
A ridge of high pressure will produce warm and dry conditions through early tomorrow afternoon. A few light rain showers are possible tomorrow afternoon ahead of a cold front. Cooler and drier air will filter in across the weekend with highs ranging from the low 60s to low 70s and lows in the 50s.
1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 (Today through Friday Night ) An upper level ridge is over the central U. this morning with a large upper low over the Rockies. The upper ridge will move to the eastern U. by Thursday night as the upper low moves into the Plains. The upper low moves into the Midwest Friday and the upper ridge moves to the east coast. A cold front in the Plains will move through Arkansas Friday. Highs today and Friday will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s and cooler Friday night in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
909 AM PDT Thu Oct 12 2023 The steady warming trend continues through Friday as high pressure build.
This is due to the lower- level portion of the trough becoming split and pinched off by ridging which is drifting southeastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast. As a result, 850mb troughing will not clear the area today, and it will remain in place over Central Alabama through tomorrow before becoming absorbed within the large-scale trough approaching from the Central CONUS.
(Tonight through Thursday) Cold front is forecast to be near Highway 75 near or shortly after sunrise Friday with boundary sweeping through the remainder of the area by early afternoon.
Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over the central Plains. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1002mb low over the Florida Big Bend area and a weak <1010mb ridge in its wake nosing across our CWA from the northeast. There will be very little moisture return ahead of this cold front which will likely be a dry cold front as it moves into our CWA Friday night. Although temperatures tonight will bottom out in the 50s, they will still be a couple degrees warmer than normal.
An upper level trough over CO and WY will slowly move east today as an ridge builds into the region.
(This evening through Friday) The short term period will focus on a strong cold front that will move south across the area late tonight and early Friday. The front will be dry but will bring much cooler temperatures to the region into the weekend. Temperatures will be mild tonight, with lows in the 60s, with highs Friday ranging from the mid and upper 70s across the Big Country, to the low and mid 80s along the I-10 corridor.
(This afternoon through Friday night) The short term forecast is front loaded with wind and an approaching cold front. Gusts begin to decay after sunset and with the approach of a cold front.
328 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 The Lower Ohio Valley has enjoyed another warm day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The warm front, extending east of a low pressure system over the western Plains, remains north of the CWA, over northern Indiana. Tonight, not a lot will change as high pressure remains over the area and keeps skies clear. Some radiative cooling with some very light CAA should help temperatures drop into the low to mid 50s in most places. Tomorrow, as the low pressure system, that is responsible for the aforementioned warm front, slides towards Iowa, its cold front will move east to near the Mississippi. Later in the day, clouds will begin increasing ahead of the approaching cold front.
Upper low currently rotating near Goodland, KS will eject into the Eastern Plains tonight. Rain should start to taper off Friday night as the upper low pulls into the Great Lakes. Highs on Friday will stay on the cooler side of average in the 40s to low 50s, and Friday night will be pretty similar to tonight.
These lower clouds will continue to lift and scatter out this afternoon leading to warmer temperatures. The main impact with the front will be cooler weather behind it later in the weekend, but for Friday afternoon expect a little bit of a cooldown across North Texas (temps: 70s) but still fairly warm across Central TX with temperatures in the 80s.
Upper low was centered on the NE CO/SE WY border per water vapor imagery and mesoanalysis. Weak upper ridging will be over the area on Friday through Fri.
(This evening through Friday night) A low pressure system is passing across the central plains which will move a cold front across the panhandles later this evening and overnight. From now to the evening gusts into the low 50s mph can be anticipated across the panhandles. The cold front will pass through the panhandles late this evening into Friday morning which will shift the winds to a northerly direction. Temperatures will unsurprisingly decrease with the passage of the cold front with highs in the 70s to 80s today falling to the 60s for Friday.
(This evening through Friday Night) One more day of warmer temperatures is in store before the next cold front arrives! A deepening mid-upper level low will continue an eastward progression across the Rockies and Great Plains through the short-term period. Aforementioned low is still on track to eject a cold front into SE Texas later Friday.
(This evening through Friday) An intense mid-latitude cyclone is currently moving across the Plains with a trailing dryline advancing across western Oklahoma. A cold front associated with the cyclone will advance into northwest Oklahoma near or just after midnight and will sweep across the entire area from early to mid-morning with gusty northwest winds in its wake.
Currently, strong high pressure is situated over southern Canada with a strong low pressure system centered near Franklin Nebraska. We also increased sky cover in the southwest and may introduce some patchy fog/drizzle with an upslope flow into the higher elevations of the state.
Water vapor imagery highlights a mean layer ridge centered to the south of the Keys, with a mid to upper-level low over the Rockies. The upper low over the Rockies will slide southeast and phase with a maelstrom of short wave energy exiting Canada over the next few days.
however this forecaster has to say these are the best type of cold fronts.
115 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 (Today through Friday) The low pressure that brought some measurable rainfall across the region yesterday as well as some gusty winds will continue to move downstream today. In the wake of this feature, upper ridging will take shape through most of the short term period. West of I55, more insolation is anticipated so these areas are where the warmer temperatures will be found today with the coolest over the Mississippi Gulf Coast where low stratus may linger.
1210 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Low pressure will slowly track east toward the Maritimes today and tonight.
319 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions tonight and through the day on Friday.
A low pressure system spinning over central Montana will continue to spread a mid-level cloud deck over the Northern Rockies through the rest of the day, with isolated showers along the Continental Divide in western Montana. A weak ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the Northern Rockies, starting tomorrow. The ridge will not be as pronounced as last weekends event. Due to Pacific moisture overrunning the ridge, a bit more clouds will be present across north-central Idaho and western Montana.
(Through Tonight) A warm front that is stretched across NE FL this afternoon, has been responsible for showers across area, and thunderstorms for NE FL Today. With clouds abounding across the area, and the warm front just to the south, temperatures will not fall very far Tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 60s inland SE GA to the lower 70s coastal NE FL.
148 PM MDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Current water vapor and upper air analysis shows the upper low situated over northeastern CO and western NE this afternoon. As we encounter the back side of the low this evening, a sharp gradient forms and we'll see the strongest winds, with widespread gusts of 45 to 55 mph expected for much of the South Dakota plains, and maybe slightly higher in south central SD.
Currently we are looking at a cold front still back in Levy County however much of the storm activity is well ahead of the front itself.
Clearing should continue pushing south but unfortunately, with SW flow aloft and upper trough pushing east from the central CONUS, another round of warm advection, low clouds and rain is expected to spread north Friday morning.
(This evening through Friday) Key Message: Warmer temperatures today, with light rain possible tomorrow afternoon Discussion: Currently mostly sunny skies with some small cumulus developing with the warmer temperatures. Most of the impacts from this frontal system won't begin until the weekend, but we should see some increased moisture invade the southern Appalachian as the low level winds draw up moisture from the Georgia/Carolina coasts. Much colder this weekend behind a cold front as longwave troughing amplifies across the Central/Southern Appalachians.
High pressure builds over the western U. Current WV imagery reveals dry air over much of Arizona, with a potent trough centered over Colorado that has brought heavy rain to the Northern Plains and snow to the peaks of the Intermountain West. Due to the troughs' proximity to our CWA, heights aloft will be suppressed, allowing temperatures to run near to even below seasonal levels. Daytime highs for today will range between the middle 80s and the lower 90s across the lower deserts. As we head into the weekend, global ensembles depict a strong ridge building over much of the western CONUS in the wake of the previously mentioned system, leading to increasing regional heights aloft and a subsequent warming trend.
While warmer and drier conditions are expected over the weekend, high clouds will hang around. Rain and mountain snow will gradually diminish overnight tonight as a deep upper level low pressure system moves southeast away from the area. Even still, rainfall amounts through this evening will be rather unimpressive, with the only areas with a greater than 25% chance of seeing an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall this evening being limited to the Rocky Mountain Front, Snowies, and the Bridger Mountains.
Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY 319 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 A band of clouds will slowly drop south through Central PA this afternoon with high pressure building in from the north tonight.
However the low levels are shown to feature some dry air as the easterly flow persists.
The now closed low is currently located across far southeastern Wyoming. The low will push well into the Great Plains by Friday morning. Temperatures will remain cool, but will trend up through the weekend as ridging sets in.
319 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 High pressure builds into the region tonight into Friday.
253 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Generally dry weather and near to above normal temperatures will continue into tomorrow within the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system.
324 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 A cold front will cross the area this evening and should bring northwest flow into the region tomorrow. Upslope showers remain possible tomorrow with some flakes of snow possible in the higher elevations. Unsettled conditions linger into the weekend as low pressure passes south of the area. On and off showers are expected to continue as a cold front moves eastward across northern New England. Generally some heavy downpours and graupel are possible with developing showers as the freezing level is pretty low this afternoon. Winds will progressively pick up through the day tomorrow as a Canadian upper-level low works its way down eastern Maine and high pressure situated over upstate New York, putting northern New England in a pressure gradient.
1250 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 (Today through Friday Night) A deepening mid/upper level low over the Great Basin/Rockies should result surface cyclogenesis across the Plains, bringing southeasterly flow across SE Texas today. The aforementioned mid- latitude cyclone should trek eastward into the Upper Mississippi River Valley on Friday, pushing a cold front through SE Texas. Northerly flow behind the front should funnel cooler, drier air into the region, allowing for fall-like weather to persist across SE Texas.
Current water vapor and upper air analysis shows the upper low situated over northeastern CO and western NE this afternoon. As we encounter the back side of the low this evening, a sharp gradient forms and we'll see the strongest winds, with widespread gusts of 45 to 55 mph expected for much of the South Dakota plains, and maybe slightly higher in south central SD.
901 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions tonight and through the day on Friday.
But the southerly low level flow will increase to around 20 knots tonight in response to low pressure over the central plains ahead of the mid level low over the Rockies. Clouds will decrease in the morning with above normal temperatures in store Friday in advance of the next cold front. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s for inland areas on Friday.
With the cold front's passage behind us, colder weather has arrived and drier air is moving in with dewpoints still dropping at the moment. The drier air and calm winds tonight will allow for effective radiational cooling overnight with many areas in northern arizona dropping to or below freezing.
731 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 (This evening through Friday) Key Message: Warmer temperatures today, with light rain possible tomorrow afternoon. Discussion: Currently mostly sunny skies with some small cumulus developing with the warmer temperatures. Most of the impacts from this frontal system won't begin until the weekend, but we should see some increased moisture invade the southern Appalachian as the low level winds draw up moisture from the Georgia/Carolina coasts. Much colder this weekend behind a cold front as longwave troughing amplifies across the Central/Southern Appalachians.
A quick moving cold front will sweep across the region tomorrow afternoon returning showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder tomorrow afternoon into evening. DNM A ridge of high pressure will produce warm and dry conditions through early tomorrow afternoon. A few light rain showers are possible tomorrow afternoon ahead of a cold front. Cooler and drier air will filter in across the weekend with highs ranging from the low 60s to low 70s and lows in the 50s.
Currently - It has been a quiet evening across the Keys this evening with deep layered ridging in control. The surface through lower level ridge is off to the southeast and is producing light to gentle south to southwesterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Deep layered ridging will remain the arbiter of Keys weather with upper level ridging overhead and the lower level ridge across Cuba. Ridging across Cuba will maintain light to gentle south to southwesterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
While warmer and drier conditions are expected over the weekend, high clouds will hang around. -Coulston Rain and mountain snow will gradually diminish overnight tonight as a deep upper level low pressure system moves southeast away from the area. Even still, rainfall amounts through this evening will be rather unimpressive, with the only areas with a greater than 25% chance of seeing an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall this evening being limited to the Rocky Mountain Front, Snowies, and the Bridger Mountains.
By Friday afternoon daytime heating will help to pop some more scattered to numerous convection, but with a southwest to west in place the highest chances will be over the interior, but also across southwest Florida where the deepest moisture will reside. Currently we are looking at a cold front still back in Levy County however much of the storm activity is well ahead of the front itself.
654 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 (This evening through Friday) An intense mid-latitude cyclone is currently moving across the Plains with a trailing dryline advancing across western Oklahoma. A cold front associated with the cyclone will advance into northwest Oklahoma near or just after midnight and will sweep across the entire area from early to mid-morning with gusty northwest winds in its wake.
556 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) The short term forecast is front loaded with wind and an approaching cold front. Gusts begin to decay after sunset and with the approach of a cold front.
The Lower Ohio Valley has enjoyed another warm day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The warm front, extending east of a low pressure system over the western Plains, remains north of the CWA, over northern Indiana. Tonight, not a lot will change as high pressure remains over the area and keeps skies clear. Some radiative cooling with some very light CAA should help temperatures drop into the low to mid 50s in most places. Tomorrow, as the low pressure system, that is responsible for the aforementioned warm front, slides towards Iowa, its cold front will move east to near the Mississippi. Later in the day, clouds will begin increasing ahead of the approaching cold front.
/NEW/ /Through Friday Evening/ The latest satellite loop indicates an upper low currently exiting the Rockies and entering the Plains while generating active convective weather from Kansas to South Dakota. These thunderstorms will remain well north of our forecast area, but the storm system will help drive our next cold front south through the region tomorrow. Cooler and overall pleasant conditions are then expected Friday evening with temperatures falling into the 50s and lower 60s by midnight.