Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This trend is expected to continue and become more widespread as a warm front moves through the region this afternoon. Current model trends are showing the warm fronts arrival to the MS river between 3-4pm. Adjusted PoPs to account for current radar trends as well as lowered the high temperature for today due to increasing cloud cover for pre-frontal showers.
A large and well developed area of low pressure will be moving our direction out of the central Plains tonight into early Sunday. A surface cold front will approach and then move through the region Sunday and Sunday, and will bring rounds of showers and storms to eastern Kentucky as it does so.
Otherwise, hotter and drier conditions will be included in the forecast for tomorrow (Sunday) as a high pressure builds across the area.
In the upper levels the 500 to 700 mb winds are coming out of the northwest as a result of a dampened ridge in the Rockies. Sunday once the storms pass we should see the ridge in the Rockies move eastward and with northwest flow aloft clouds will be thicker for much of the day. Along with the clouds the winds at the surface and boundary layer will be out of the northeast leading to cooler 850 mb temperatures. Sunday night with the ridge in the central plains the upper level winds in the Rockies will be more southwesterly and we should see another 500-700 vort max develop a complex of storms in the Rockies by around 00Z.
Lows last night in close proximity to the high over Canada were in the 40s F, and multi-model blended guidance offers high confidence in lows over western and central ND in the 40s tonight. Light winds and a clear sky will promote radiational cooling, and depending on the amount of dry air advection, some spots could be a bit cooler than forecast. On Sunday, highs are forecast to be in the 70s F with light winds and plentiful sunshine owing to the increasing influence of ridging aloft.
A frontal boundary draped west to east north of the Gulf Coast will head northward as a warm front today and tonight, as a storm system forming over the western High Plains heads to the NE.
(Rest of today through Sunday) A mid-level longwave trough remains over the eastern United States while a surface boundary lingers across north central Florida. Some additional cloud cover could help keep temperatures a degree or two cooler but heat index values will hit the triple digits across most of the area thanks to the increased dewpoints.
ALl this convection should have mostly ended across our region after midnight, except possibly across our far northeast zones so held onto some small pops across this area SPC has our region outlooked for a Marginal/Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms near and north of the I-20 Corridor in NE TX, SW AR, N LA and SE OK and while the bulk of severe weather does appear to be north and east of our region Sunday through Sunday Night, will need to watch this closely for the possibility of atmospheric recovery, a southward moving cold front and any residual outflow boundary that may serve as focus mechanisms for strong to isolated severe convection.
(This afternoon through Sunday Night) Another quiet day today ahead of the upper trough that will bring in showers and thunderstorms starting as early as late this evening in the west. Some showers and storms may develop ahead of the cold front during the early to mid afternoon, and may pose a strong to severe threat with damaging wind gusts and even some large hail with drier air aloft and decent lapse rates through the afternoon.
Otherwise, developing showers and thunderstorms will continue to push southwards ahead of the previously mentioned cold front. Given the cool air aloft and dreary conditions at the surface, daytime highs will likely only peak in the mid to upper 70s for the day with cooler conditions in the low to mid 50s overnight.
A developing parent low over the Central Plains will head eastward, with a warm front extending from it. A moisture return was noted south and west of the warm front (especially across MS) with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s near/west of the MS River, with lower 50s to lower 60s over our area. Mid afternoon temperatures ranged in the low/mid 80s with S-SW winds of 5-15 mph. This first episode of isolated to scattered showers/t-storms (~20-30% rain chances) should continue on/off tonight, as a warm front moves northward across the area.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Key Messages: - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and lasting overnight into Sunday morning - Cooler and dry to start the week, then warming Discussion: Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage across northern and southern Iowa through the day. Hydrologic concerns are also on the low side, but would be the main hazard (aside from spurious lightning) with overnight activity. Behind the front, low dewpoints and northwest flow will keep things cooler than average for this time of year into the first part of the week. By midweek the western ridge rebuilds, pushing temperatures back into the low to mid 80s.
Still on the low side, but a bit better for more organized storms. High temperatures around seasonal norms are expected this afternoon and Sunday, with a mean upper trough in place along the East Coast limiting upper subsidence somewhat from an upper ridge over the Plains.
Storms will develop in the High Plains/eastern Colorado Saturday evening along the frontal boundary and move through Kansas and northern Oklahoma throughout the overnight hours and early Sunday morning.
Ensembles project that the upper level low will slowly work it's way down the California coastline today before moving inland over southern California on Sunday.
As this moves to the east, the ridge that is in place will rebuild. A warm, humid night tonight will lead into an even warmer day Sunday.
Aside from the aforementioned brief window for storm chances Sunday evening, Sunday night looks to be quiescent, with lows a bit warmer than tonight, in the middle 60s to lower 70s for most.
The nearly stalled front will begin to lift northward tonight as a warm front, which will shift our winds to a more southwesterly direction and impact the weather over the next few days.
(Through Sunday) Nearby sfc ridging across the southeastern CONUS has promoted sfc winds to turn south-southeast the CWA, thus lifting the warm front northward. This evening into tonight, as the warm front continues to lift northward to across the northern portions of the CWA, any lingering precip will be confined to the aforementioned area, though should see coverage diminish due to loss of daytime heating. Sfc ridging centered across the eastern Gulf will maintain srly sfc flow thus maintaining dewpoints in the 60s CWA-wide. Short-term solutions such as the HRRR hint at convection nearing/moving across southern GA tomorrow afternoon, nearest to the warm front and perhaps an embedded UA impulse within the southwest flow aloft. Computer models hint a cold front moving across AL and GA, resulting in slightly breezy west/southwest breezes across the waters and a light chop.
Cooler temperatures, mostly clear skies, and lighter winds will prevail tonight. Cloud cover and wind will diminish this evening as high pressure drifts down from Canada. Lows last night in close proximity to the high over Canada were in the 40s F, and multi-model blended guidance offers high confidence in lows over western and central ND in the 40s tonight. Light winds and a clear sky will promote radiational cooling, and depending on the amount of dry air advection, some spots could be a bit cooler than forecast. On Sunday, highs are forecast to be in the 70s F with light winds and plentiful sunshine owing to the increasing influence of ridging aloft.
Expect a break in the thunderstorms activity Sunday morning into the afternoon hours, but another short wave and associated cold front will move into the northern portions of the area by mid/late afternoon. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 60s, with highs on Sunday mostly in the low 90s.
939 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 High pressure centered over Canada will sink further down into ND tonight.
Weak troughing persists to our west through the lower and mid levels. Short Term Update - The Keys will remain within a zone of rather weak pressure gradients between high pressure to our east and lower to our west. A fairly weak pressure gradient between high pressure out over the Atlantic and lower pressure over the Plains and Gulf of Mexico is generating light broadly southerly breezes across Keys waters.
A weak upper low will continue to fizzle out tonight along with any lingering showers. Ridging aloft then looks to build to start the new week, bringing a brief warm spell. Afterwards, a trough will move by towards midweek bringing a cool down in temperatures followed by an additional trough towards the weekend.
This Afternoon trough Sunday night Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon before tapering off heading into the evening. Sunday, a robust positively tilted trough featuring an embedded low pressure, will pull in more moisture to Nevada.
A weak disturbance and cooler temperatures aloft will brush the Northeast quadrant of Pennsylvania with some late afternoon clouds today along with a few showers.
728 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 (Through Sunday) Nearby sfc ridging across the southeastern CONUS has promoted sfc winds to turn south-southeast the CWA, thus lifting the warm front northward. This evening into tonight, as the warm front continues to lift northward to across the northern portions of the CWA, any lingering precip will be confined to the aforementioned area, though should see coverage diminish due to loss of daytime heating. Sfc ridging centered across the eastern Gulf will maintain srly sfc flow thus maintaining dewpoints in the 60s CWA-wide. Short-term solutions such as the HRRR hint at convection nearing/moving across southern GA tomorrow afternoon, nearest to the warm front and perhaps an embedded UA impulse within the southwest flow aloft.
Then, another afternoon of showers and storms on Sunday with the highest chances over interior locations.
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 23Z sfc analysis shows a weak area of high pressure retreating to the east of Kentucky. Look for high clouds to move in later tonight from the west before lowering towards dawn as a low pressure system rides into the region. A large and well developed area of low pressure will be moving our direction out of the central Plains tonight into early Sunday. A surface cold front will approach and then move through the region Sunday and Sunday, and will bring rounds of showers and storms to eastern Kentucky as it does so.
Despite the stabilizing air mass, not comfortable yet completely removing pops, although drier air aloft should continue to entrain E into the region with this trough passage and thus ending any kind of residual rain threat for the night after midnight.
632 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Another quiet day today ahead of the upper trough that will bring in showers and thunderstorms starting as early as late this evening in the west. Some showers and storms may develop ahead of the cold front during the early to mid afternoon, and may pose a strong to severe threat with damaging wind gusts and even some large hail with drier air aloft and decent lapse rates through the afternoon.
More organized storms maybe possible late Sunday night as shear and dynamic support increase ahead of a low pressure system over southern Nevada.
648 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 A cold front now over central Michigan will slowly drop southward during the course of the night. The region of showers just north of MBS this afternoon were enhanced by the diurnal component of the higher terrain. Ample low level dry air south of the cold front will hider evening convective development across the Se Mi terminals. Large scale ascent will then increase gradually across Se Mi overnight into Saturday afternoon with the approach of an upper level low. The cold front is forecast to pass through metro around 09Z, which is when the wind shift to the northeast will occur. Upper level low pressure near James Bay will build/expand quickly south and southwest within overall upper trough axis with the mean low position shifting into the northern Great Lakes by Sunday.
Cloud cover and wind will diminish this evening as high pressure drifts down from Canada. Lows last night in close proximity to the high over Canada were in the 40s F, and multi-model blended guidance offers high confidence in lows over western and central ND in the 40s tonight. Light winds and a clear sky will promote radiational cooling, and depending on the amount of dry air advection, some spots could be a bit cooler than forecast. On Sunday, highs are forecast to be in the 70s F with light winds and plentiful sunshine owing to the increasing influence of ridging aloft.
445 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 A cool front will move south today and bring cooler air across the region. A wave will eventually develop into a low pressure area and move northeast along the front.
There is limited instability with this storm system due to the lower dewpoints thus isolated thunderstorms are expected mainly south of Interstate 80. High temperatures on Sunday will be cooler and range from 70 to 75 degrees.
Upper level ridging will strengthen through the day today, likely keeping any showers and thunderstorms that develop this afternoon to the north of our CWA (though an isolated pop-up shower or storm cannot be ruled out near our border with FWD) and also warming temperatures a bit more compared to yesterday. A heat advisory seems probable for a very similar area as today before the warmer temperatures and heat indices expand in coverage through mid-week. The ridging aloft pushing slightly further north on Monday adds more confidence that we'll remain dry here in south-central Texas.
The nearly stalled front will begin to lift northward tonight as a warm front, which will shift our winds to a more southwesterly direction and impact the weather over the next few days. Temps will be slightly warmer Sunday with a mainly offshore flow, except along the immediate coast. Monday: The warm front shifts north and eastward Monday, with a cold front from the same parent low over the northeast then approaching southeast GA counties during the day on Monday. Monday will be an even warmer day for most as southwest offshore flow continues, into the 90s for almost all.
Southwest winds will increase on Sunday, then rain chances increase on Monday, as another low pressure system moves out of southern California. Before Sunday's trough, we our continuing to see pristine weather across the area. Temperatures are running slightly closer to normal than of recent with some clouds that are forming ahead of the next trough. Tonight, look for some passing mid to high level clouds and slightly warmer lows (only a couple degrees). Sunday another trough moves into the area. Following the trough Sunday and Monday, we finally see a more quiet pattern trying to develop which means temperatures will start to moderate with no signs of any influences to bring them back down.
A cold front on Monday will usher in cooler temperatures for the first half of the week. Deepening low pressure will glide into the upper Midwest this morning and then begin to slowly move eastward this afternoon. Lingering showers should clear the area west to east Monday morning through early afternoon, lingering longest in the ridges/higher elevations. Cold frontal passage on Monday will drop daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal to start the work week.
A cold front will move through the region today, bringing showers and thunderstorms to portions of the area at times from early this morning into this afternoon.
Primary feature early this morning is a low pressure centered over the CWA, clearly defined by the cyclonic spin in the radar presentation. This coverage of light to occasionally moderate rain tied to the low has been slow to progress eastward. Moving forward today, little change in precipitation coverage and intensity is expected along the low pressure track as it shifts eastward during the day.
Monday morning, a low pressure system will still be off to our east, centered over MI.
111 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 (Rest of today through Sunday) A mid-level longwave trough remains over the eastern United States while a surface boundary lingers across north central Florida. Some additional cloud cover could help keep temperatures a degree or two cooler but heat index values will hit the triple digits across most of the area thanks to the increased dewpoints.
(Today) An active day of weather is forecasted for the Tennessee Valley region today, especially during the afternoon and evening as multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible along/ahead of a cold front. Ahead of the cold front, southerly flow will continue to advect in a warm, moist air mass as seen by dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s and PWATs climbing into the 1.
this morning the surface warm front to our south has been slowly lifting into the CWA with light showers accompanying the front. As the morning progresses the warm front will continue to makes its way northward with increase cloud cover and low end rain shower and thunderstorm chances within the warm sector. As the aforementioned front is moving northward a dynamic upper level storm system, currently moving into the Great Lakes region from southern Canada will encourage the development of a surface cyclone near the Ohio River Valley. This cyclone and attendant cold front will move through the through the Mid West and towards the Deep South. Convection will become enhanced within the warm sector and organize along the cold front as it moves through GA late tonight into early tomorrow morning.
Additional precipitation is expected to develop later today in advance of an approaching cold front. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s/lower 80s over Nrn AR, to the lower 90s over Srn AR. Surface winds will switch from the W/SW to N/NW with the passage of the cold front this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will gradually warm each day as the cold front lifts back to the N on Monday.
We will dry out this afternoon with skies clearing out for tonight as flow shifts to the north behind the departing cold front.
On Sunday, a cold front will approach from the north, and will focus additional convection.
Low pressure centered near Kansas City will continue to track eastward near the I-70 corridor overnight. The system looks to deepen and strengthen as a cold front dropping down from the north catches up to and interacts with this low and additional moisture from the south wraps into the system. Cooler temperatures are expected for Sunday and Monday, with highs only in the 70s, then temperatures return to the 80s for the rest of the work week.
Further south, low pressure was located off the coast of southern California with weak ridging noted from New Mexico, north into southern Colorado. Highs will be much cooler today with readings in the lower 70s. For Broken Bow, the forecast low of 45 degrees is only 2 degrees warmer than the record of 43 degrees. On Monday, clouds will persist over SW Nebraska, leading to cooler readings in these areas.
- Cooler temperatures in store for Sunday and Monday Tonight into Monday A complex and messy weather pattern continues into this afternoon with scattered light showers having become more widespread throughout the day before diminishing again early this afternoon. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front stretches roughly from south central Nebraska northeastward through northeast Nebraska and eventually into southeastern SD. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon near the MCVs as well as along the synoptic cold front. Highs on Sunday will remain in the low 70s with dewpoints falling into the 40s on Sunday night.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will continue to move east over the forecast area today which will lead to hot temperatures again. A weak cold front will slide south and stall in the forecast area and should keep high temperatures in the southern Texas Panhandle slightly cooler in the upper 80s compared to the rest of the area where highs are expected to be in the 90s. Precipitation chances will be low today and tonight as the ridging moves overhead but model guidance indicates an outside chance of a thunderstorm or two.
147 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler with limited rain chances until late this coming week. - Possible elevated fire weather risk with a building ridge and drier air mass this coming week. Short wave will evolve into more of a closed upper low across western Great Lakes next 24 hours or so, which is supported by stronger rotation noted in water vapor imagery across Ontario. This will keep us cooler next couple days with possibility /15-25%/ of showers west of upper low, mainly as close as central Wisconsin.
1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Very quiet with high pressure and mostly clear skies. High pressure centered over Canada will sink further down into ND tonight. Key Messages: -Cooler temperatures are expected for tonight through Monday morning. Winds have been gusting up to 25kts across the region this afternoon, but as we loose daytime heating lapse rates will diminish below 7 C/km and mixing will become little to none in the lower levels. The cooler temperatures are thanks to the northerly flow from an amplified ridge out in the western United States. Sharp northerly flow, with the ridge extending into far northern Canada helps keep us dry and cool. Dew points will be on the low end Sunday afternoon (40s), with RH values dropping into the upper 20s to 30s.
By mid week, a stronger weather disturbance will begin to move into Central MT, resulting in cooler temperatures and some windy conditions. /ISSUED 511 PM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023/ Area remains beneath a band of deep upper level moisture in SE flow aloft sandwiched between an upper level ridge/anticyclone centered over SK and a disjointed upper level trough along the Pacific coast with embedded lows near WA and CA.
However, the development of additional showers and thunderstorms may occur across our eastern zones prior to sunrise as the outflow boundary/effective warm front lift northeastward and interact with the strengthening low-level jet.
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 High pressure will continue to ridge south of the area as a stalled boundary meanders to the north of the area through the period.
(Today and tonight) For today, our area will be under a ridge aloft, extending from Mexico north across Texas. This looks to be a dirty ridge, with our area having some low thunderstorm chances later this afternoon and evening. Trailing portion of a cold front should sag south into the far northern Big Country late this afternoon and evening. While confidence in development and placement of convection is low across the central and southwestern parts of our area, potential hazards would include localized, strong downburst winds (inverted V type soundings) and hail (likely sub-severe with partial melting in the low-level hot airmass), along with lightning.
332 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Warm and increasingly humid conditions will return to the area today as southerly winds develop around high pressure moving farther offshore.
and Monday Showers will continue to diminish from north to south across central and east-central Wisconsin this morning as a cold front continues sinking south and high pressure builds across the northern Plains. Monday will be a bit warmer, with highs ranging from the lower 70s across central Wisconsin and middle to upper 60s across northeast Wisconsin.