Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently - A high cell that earlier slid down the Rockies is now centered over the western Gulf of Mexico and Mexico and extends a ridge eastward into the Bahamas. Ridging will remain to our west and the low will remain over the northeast. Dew points will slip a few more points into the lower to mid 50s. A broad ridge axis stretching across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain gentle northwest to northerly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
1057 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 -Highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s Saturday, followed by a before a dry cold front passage Saturday night.
1145 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Clear skies and light winds will push overnight lows into the low to mid 30s again tonight with a light freeze expected across interior portions of Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana. Aloft, there is an upper level low centered near the Mid Atlantic coast leaving us with WNW to NW flow overhead. Down at the surface lays a high pressure over south Texas. Over the weekend, an upper level ridge will build in east of the Rockies as a trough slips down into the Northern Plains. On NYE (Sunday) night, a cold front will work its way into the Southern Plains with a few isolated showers ahead of it.
157 AM MST Sat Dec 30 2023 High Pressure remains in control over the weekend keeping things dry. Only feature of note in the short term is a weak backdoor cold front moved into the area overnight and this will cause a temperature drop of 10 degrees from yesterday's highs in northeast zones and 5 degrees in southwest zones.
High pressure has shifted east, with split flow developing over the state. We did include patchy dense freezing fog both nights.
100 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2023 A cold front will move through by daybreak. There could be some lingering rain or snow showers overnight into Saturday morning, with light snow accumulations possible across the highest terrain. Upper-level troughing is tracking eastward across the forecast area resulting in areas of scattered to numerous rain/snow showers, particularly from Albany north and west. The best chances for light accumulations of wet snow will be in the high terrain of southern VT and the southern Adirondacks aided by upslope enhancement. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region under a cold advective regime with potentially gusty west-northwest winds along the Mohawk Valley and from the eastern Catskills across the Capital District into the Berkshires. With brief upper level ridging over the area, clearing and colder weather will finally return for Saturday night into Sunday.
This will pull the northern stream trough out of the Southeast and result in a locally zonal flow regime aloft by Sunday. The effect of this at the surface will be for high pressure to nose its way across Florida from the Gulf. Some mid and high level cloud cover ahead of the longwave trough axis should be expected across south Florida through today, with clearing skies by Sunday. It's more likely that the observed maximum temperatures today will fall on the lower side of the guidance envelope, where some of the raw model guidance clusters.
Upper ridging over the Four Corners will push eastward through the day before bisecting the region later tonight. This should push a cold front southward from Canada through the Great Plains during the evening and overnight hours. The cold front should be pushing into our northern zones by sunrise tomorrow morning. Overnight lows ahead of the cold front will be in the low to mid 30s thanks to light southwesterly surface winds.
It will be cool with lows in the 40's in the morning but will warm up into the 60's and low 70's each day as high pressure sits overheads.
This will allow temperatures to fall below freezing areawide by sunrise. On Saturday, surface ridging starts to build over the region, creating a pleasant start to the New Year's weekend. Westerly/southwesterly flow will bring clear skies and high temperatures in the lower to middle 50s.
143 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 - Drier weather with warmer temperatures return today.
(Today through Sunday) A northwest-to-southeast mid-level flow initially over the BRO CWFA will gradually transition to a more zonal flow during the period as a flattening 500 mb ridge of high pressure rapidly shifts from the Desert Southwest to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
1057 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) An upper level low pressure center has continued to move east into the southeastern U. The main focus in the short term will again be the potential for freezing temperatures over the low lying areas of the Hill Country.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Saturday night/ Dry northwest flow aloft and a weak surface pressure gradient will result in a clear, calm and cold night with lows at or below freezing. Saturday is shaping up to be a beautiful day for late December with a building upper ridge, plenty of sun, and a southwest wind helping to push highs into the 60s for all but the northeast zones. Weak warm air advection ahead of a cold front Saturday night will keep temperatures above freezing, but a clear sky and light southerly winds will still allow lows to fall into the middle 30s to the lower 40s.
Overall, temperatures continue to trend cooler compared to what we have been observing so far this season but not cooling enough to reach seasonal normals. Another round of low stratus/freezing fog is possible during the overnight hours, especially for western WI. Scattered snow showers are possible for much of western MN as temperatures look to remain at or below freezing. However east of the I-35 corridor, forecast guidance hinting at a slight chance of scattered freezing drizzle before phasing into all snow and becoming more widespread by Saturday evening. By New Years Day, high pressure is dominant keeping skies mostly clear.
The upper level trough is on its way and ridging is on its way in. A weak cold front will push in Saturday night, bringing back 10-20 mph north winds by Sunday morning.
(Today and tonight) Weak upper level ridging will begin to work its way east into the area today ahead of the next trough moving onto the California coast.
This feature sandwiched between troughing over the eastern seaboard and upstream over the northern Plains/upper MS Valley. Some low chances for precip spread into western areas between 06-12z, and while primarily snow is expected in any showers later tonight, slow top-down saturation may yield low chances for patchy freezing drizzle. High temps today largely in the low-mid 30s before falling into the 20s area-wide tonight.
Skies have become mostly sunny after early morning fog mixed out this afternoon underneath high pressure aloft. Quite nice given that it's late December! Patchy fog is expected to redevelop over night tonight and similar to this morning, it's possible that freezing fog may develop in areas with temperatures that dip below freezing. Added freezing drizzle to portions of NW WI due to saturation not reaching the DGZ. Currently have snow moving into NW WI later in the afternoon, but models don't quite agree on timing for when the freezing drizzle should transition to all snow so it could be a little later than what is currently forecast. The clipper system should also swing a cold front through which will cool temperatures off for Saturday and Sunday, but still remain above normal for this time of year.
1038 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - 20-40% chance for freezing temperatures tonight With clear skies tonight and tomorrow, chilly temperatures are expected tonight with plenty of sunshine tomorrow. An SPS for temperatures below freezing was issued for McMullen, Jim Wells and Bee counties for tonight as the NBM is showing a 20-40% chance of overnight lows dropping below 32 degrees. With southerly flow returning tomorrow, daytime highs and overnight lows tomorrow will be a touch warmer than today and tonight with daytime highs tomorrow in the upper 60s to lower 70 and overnight lows tomorrow night in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
Areas of rain, heaviest in current mid level deformation from southeast into northwest Indiana will slide southeast through CWA tonight, as upper low over eastern Kentucky shifts eastward, then northeast as it phases into strong Quebec to Lower Great Lakes trough.
If these dewpoints were to lower, than freezing temperatures and more effects from this mix of precipitation and accumulating wintry precipitation would be a bigger concern. This could allow temperatures to drop briefly around freezing in those locationsm, even if coverage of any additional precipitation becomes very isolated to widely scattered (which is expected). Overall, still expect mainly dusting to up to one half an inch of snowfall at best in the higher elevations above 1300 feet. (Saturday through Sunday night) After the aforementioned low pressure system continues northeastward, high pressure filters into the TN Valley and dry conditions are forecast throughout the weekend.
Temperatures for the remainder of the daylight hours will be several degrees warmer over eastern Kansas and Western Missouri, with a few highs sneaking into the middle 40s. Even with an increase in mid-level cloud cover, highs on Saturday will be warmer with temps topping the lower 40s in NE MO to the upper 40s over east central Kansas. At the surface, a reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive with the passage of a cold front projected to move through the CWA Saturday night into early Sunday morning, resulting in max temperatures roughly ten degrees cooler on Sunday compared to Saturday.
- Cooler temperatures are expected Sunday with light snow showers possible in the Sierra Madre Mountains.
- Pierce 423 PM MST Fri Dec 29 2023 (30/00Z TAF Period) VFR conditions continue to prevail across all terminals under mid- to high-level clouds as upper-level ridging persists over the Treasure State. /ISSUED 423 PM MST Fri Dec 29 2023/ A mix of sun and clouds is found across North Central and Southwestern Montana as upper level ridging sits over the Northern Rockies. With this ridge in place, There will not be a whole lot to discuss weather wise today and the next few days, as each of the next few days will see mild temperatures, generally light winds, patchy valley fog, and just a few mountain flurries.
Our next cold front will arrive in northern Oklahoma late this evening and progress southward over Oklahoma and northern Texas through Sunday morning. Outside of far northern Oklahoma, low temperatures will likely be a little warmer than those seen the past several mornings.
Freezing fog is also a risk over this area given temperatures in the teens and 20s. Clouds will increase this afternoon and evening ahead of an upper level low, which will push into the region tonight. 5 inches of snow, with the higher totals along and north of I-94. However with surface temperatures around freezing and warm advection off the lake (water temps in the low 40s), additional moisture may be offset by less efficient accumulation.
1002 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) A gradual warming trend is underway today as the large slow- moving low continues inching its way into the Appalachians while high-amplitude ridging extending from Baja north-northeastward across the Great Basin to the northern Rockies moves slowly eastward. The warming trend continues Saturday as highs climb above normal, aided by southwesterly downslope flow coincident with the eastward progression of the aforementioned ridge.
Weak ridge of high pressure builds into the area tonight bringing clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and cold temperatures. Lows should bottom out in the lower to mid 20s. Saturday night and Sunday: Closed upper low/vigorous trough dives out of Manitoba and across the Great Lakes region. The trough will provide forcing but moisture is limited.
945 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 - A cold front will sweep through the region north to south Saturday night. Longwave ridging continues to build into the western CONUS supporting northwest flow aloft and synoptic scale subsidence across the northern Plains. This will bring mild and dry weather to the region today and tomorrow with afternoon highs in the 30s and low 40s, and lows in the low and mid 20s. In association with this upper level disturbance, a surface cold front will sweep across the region from north to south Saturday night.
1023 PM MST Fri Dec 29 2023 Ridge of high pressure aloft over the Great Basin will continue the pleasant, seasonable weather on Saturday. The ridge will then push east as a series of Pacific lows track across the southern U.
234 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2023 A trough will remain over the region today bringing some light precipitation to the region. A stubborn upper level trough will cross the region today. Favorable upslope gradient will squeeze out a few more snow showers as cooler air advects into the region. On Sunday, we will remain under a weak ridge as low pressure tracks to our south and weakens. Overview: Mean mid-level ridging will allow for tranquil weather conditions through mid-week with temperatures near to a little above normal. Forecast Details: The forecast begins on a benign note on Sunday night as mid-level short wave ridging moves overhead.
High pressure will keep above normal temperatures across the region into Saturday along with dry conditions.
An upper level trof will be exiting the area, bringing a NWLY flow aloft to the region. The only notable feature during the short term will be a cold front that will push into the area starting on Sunday. At the moment it looks like this will be a dry system, bringing in a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air.
Discussion: An upper trough extends from Quebec, through the Great Lakes, central Appalachians, and into Alabama. This trough has been responsible for isolated rain and snow shower activity overnight. Regional radar imagery shows additional returns now moving through central Kentucky associated with a vort lob within the main trough axis. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 40's across most locations with upper 30's to near 40 across southwest Virginia, and extreme northeast Tennessee. Precipitation will begin to exit the area by the afternoon hours as the trough moves out of the region. A strong inversion will develop on the upshear side of the trough axis so thinking that cloud cover will be slow to clear out.
941 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Clear skies and light winds will push overnight lows into the low to mid 30s again tonight with a light freeze expected across interior portions of Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana. Aloft, there is an upper level low centered near the Mid Atlantic coast leaving us with WNW to NW flow overhead. Down at the surface lays a high pressure over south Texas. Over the weekend, an upper level ridge will build in east of the Rockies as a trough slips down into the Northern Plains. On NYE (Sunday) night, a cold front will work its way into the Southern Plains with a few isolated showers ahead of it.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) One last morning of widespread freezing temperatures before a large upper level trough sweeps up into the Northeast, and ridging sets in with warmer temperatures for Texas and New Mexico. Thicknesses will tick up this afternoon as the ridge axis positions over the area, and highs reach the 60s today with partly sunny skies and light winds. This front should arrive after peak heating and strong downsloping west winds will develop ahead of the trough, so temperatures will be able to warm sufficiently to the 60s and low 70s for most Sunday afternoon. This looks to be the last day of above-normal temperatures for at least a week with a significantly cooler pattern setting in post-front.
107 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2023 A cold front will move through by daybreak. There could be some lingering rain or snow showers overnight into Saturday morning, with light snow accumulations possible across the highest terrain. Upper-level troughing is tracking eastward across the forecast area resulting in areas of scattered to numerous rain/snow showers, particularly from Albany north and west. The best chances for light accumulations of wet snow will be in the high terrain of southern VT and the southern Adirondacks aided by upslope enhancement. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region under a cold advective regime with potentially gusty west-northwest winds along the Mohawk Valley and from the eastern Catskills across the Capital District into the Berkshires. With brief upper level ridging over the area, clearing and colder weather will finally return for Saturday night into Sunday.
1130 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) Tonight through Sunday, upper level ridging will build into the area. Generally, low temperatures above freezing are expected tomorrow morning and Sunday morning for all of our areas except S MS areas. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid 50s with higher temperatures in the low 60s expected Sunday. NBM is in good alignment with the other models, so minor to no changes were made in the low or high temperatures for the next few days.
Before the winds kicked in Big Pine managed to radiate out and temperatures reach into the upper 50s while other locations have held in the lower to mid 60s. As this high slides eastward we will see winds drop off while remaining generally from the north.
934 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2023 The cool, cloudy morning will give way to another quiet afternoon throughout the region with cooler than normal temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. This will pull the northern stream trough out of the Southeast and result in a locally zonal flow regime aloft by Sunday. The effect of this at the surface will be for high pressure to nose its way across Florida from the Gulf. Some mid and high level cloud cover ahead of the longwave trough axis should be expected across south Florida through today, with clearing skies by Sunday. It's more likely that the observed maximum temperatures today will fall on the lower side of the guidance envelope, where some of the raw model guidance clusters.
501 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 (Today through Sunday) After a chilly start to this morning, where freezing temperatures are possible in some locations, abundant sunshine should lead to a warm day. While skies will remain mostly clear once again tonight, the return of southerly flow will lead to warm air advection resulting in a warmer night tonight.
Clearing line behind the cold front can be seen on satellite pushing southward early this morning with areas of clear skies across central/lower Michigan. The inbound ridge and subsidence inversion will keep shallow low level lake moisture trapped and support this expansion of low stratus clouds. The combination of clouds and the thermal trough will prevent much of a diurnal swing in temperatures and bring high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Another limiting factor for accumulations will be daytime highs that should remain above freezing for the bulk of this event. The greater lift will be on the back side of the low as it progresses through, which could result in some better organized mesoscale bands towards the evening hours.
505 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 (Today through Sunday night) Currently a ridge is passing over the region yielding dry and fair weather for the morning and early afternoon. This ridge will be replaced by a trough later today which will drag a dry cold front across the panhandles. This cold front will serve to only shift the wind direction to the north and push somewhat colder air across the panhandles.
Radar shows the frontal band, accompanied by light to moderate precipitation, slowly moving east from the valley into the northern Sierra early this morning where light snow is beginning to fall across the higher passes. Around 1 to 4 inches is expected at the pass levels with up to a foot or more across the highest elevations above 8k ft. In the valley, occasional showers are expected this morning as the upper trough rotates in. Enough instability lingers later this morning into the afternoon for some isolated pop-up showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms as the trough shifts east.
426 AM MST Sat Dec 30 2023 - No forecast concerns over the next several days w/ upper-level ridging and/or split flow aloft limiting potential influence from any major weather systems. A very quiet 24-48 hours ahead as upper-level ridging remains in control across the Rockies. Upper-level ridging may become undercut by a weak short wave disturbance on Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday will be 10-15 degrees cooler as a result, but no impactful weather is expected.
- Clearing skies expected by midday, with one more seasonably mild afternoon (upper 30 to lower 40s) before cooler air arrives Sunday (mainly 20s).
The high pressure that brought the sunny skies and warm temperatures (except up north) to the region will be shifting eastward today ahead of a splitting trough off the West Coast. As the ridge axis also shifts east, the resultant southwesterly flow will be responsible for ushering in moisture aloft and an increase in cloud cover. Overnight, the clouds should keep overnight lows considerably warmer than seen recently with teens and low 20s being common across the area. Just enough moisture and lift will allow some light QPF for the higher elevations of the Flat Tops and central mountains (mainly above 10K feet).
After today's system exits the area Sunday morning, an extended stretch of quiet weather is looking likely through the first several days of 2024, as ridging over the central CONUS eventually transitions to zonal flow aloft.
512 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) One last morning of widespread freezing temperatures before a large upper level trough sweeps up into the Northeast, and ridging sets in with warmer temperatures for Texas and New Mexico. Thicknesses will tick up this afternoon as the ridge axis positions over the area, and highs reach the 60s today with partly sunny skies and light winds. This front should arrive after peak heating and strong downsloping west winds will develop ahead of the trough, so temperatures will be able to warm sufficiently to the 60s and low 70s for most Sunday afternoon. This looks to be the last day of above-normal temperatures for at least a week with a significantly cooler pattern setting in post-front.
419 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2023 Clearing line behind the cold front can be seen on satellite pushing southward early this morning with areas of clear skies across central/lower Michigan. The inbound ridge and subsidence inversion will keep shallow low level lake moisture trapped and support this expansion of low stratus clouds. The combination of clouds and the thermal trough will prevent much of a diurnal swing in temperatures and bring high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Another limiting factor for accumulations will be daytime highs that should remain above freezing for the bulk of this event. The greater lift will be on the back side of the low as it progresses through, which could result in some better organized mesoscale bands towards the evening hours.
355 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Weather conditions will remain quiet today as global guidance highlights surface ridging building over the southeast region. Expect overnight lows to dip into the low 30s.
While it is a deepening upper trough, it is initially starved for moisture, so much of the upper lift this afternoon will go into moistening the air before snow can make it to the ground. Snowfall amounts are dependent on the track of the 925mb and 850mb lows, as they will determine the low level winds that will cause lake enhancement from the bay and lake.
515 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 - Drier weather with warmer temperatures return today.
524 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 (Today through Sunday) A northwest-to-southeast mid-level flow initially over the BRO CWFA will gradually transition to a more zonal flow during the period as a flattening 500 mb ridge of high pressure rapidly shifts from the Desert Southwest to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
532 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Weather conditions will remain quiet today as global guidance highlights surface ridging building over the southeast region. Expect overnight lows to dip into the low 30s.