Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
723 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather of eastern Kentucky this weekend and beyond. The ridge will allow for light and variable winds and steadily warming temperatures across the area. The period will start with ridging at all levels from the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians through the southeast CONUS. A weak mid/upper level low will be riding northward through the southern plains around the western side of the ridge early in the week. It will get picked up by a trough lifting northeast out of the western CONUS.
A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather of eastern Kentucky this weekend and beyond. The ridge will allow for light and variable winds and steadily warming temperatures across the area. The period will start with ridging at all levels from the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians through the southeast CONUS. A weak mid/upper level low will be riding northward through the southern plains around the western side of the ridge early in the week. It will get picked up by a trough lifting northeast out of the western CONUS.
525 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (Today through Sunday Night ) A large ridge of high pressure will be anchored over the middle of the country during the near term. At the same time, a weakness in the ridge in the form of a storm system aloft will wobble from Louisiana to Texas today/Sunday.
With the high pressure moving past far southeast Colorado, and a potent upper low moving down the west coast, we will see a continuation of the weather we've seen the last several days, with some minor changes. However, no critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon due to winds being relatively light under the high. Over the mountains, the low out west will start to funnel more monsoon moisture into our CWA today, allowing for a bit better coverage of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Coverage will be isolated to scattered, with most of the high-res guidance placing the best coverage over our Central Mountains.
Some showers are still ongoing over the forecast area this morning as an area low pressure is covering the region. Eventually, the low will start to kick out to the east around Sunday afternoon and evening. Even with the low departing, the chance of rain still exists as a cold front descends on the region around Sunday evening.
649 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure is going to keep the area dry over the next several days, while temperatures start to warm once again. Getting some cirrus across southern VA into NC from upper low over Louisiana.
607 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry weather will continue today across the forecast area as upper level high pressure remains overhead. An upper level low currently located over Louisiana will move west-northwest into North Texas today but will have little influence on our local weather as 500 mb heights remain near 595 dam and very dry air stays overhead. High temperatures will range from the mid-90s on the Caprock to over 100 degrees in the Rolling Plains, about 10 degrees warmer than average.
738 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (Today through Sunday) South Florida remains in the warmer, moist airmass ahead of a backdoor cold front associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia. The drier airmass will also help cool things a few degrees though portions of Southwest Florida will still reach the lower to mid 90s.
428 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis extending from the Central Plains through the Northern Plains, with upper low along the coast. At the surface, lee trof had advanced into eastern MT/WY/CO. Upper ridge axis will dominate our wx over the weekend with hot and dry conditions expected. Surface trof advancing across the western Dakotas today will also help downslope flow add to the heat.
906 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Updated the forecast to raise max T grids, based on current obs that are running warmer than forecast in some locations, as well as the fact that the NBM has been too low on forecast max T the last couple days. High pressure in control providing dry weather for the forecast area.
1025 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Currently, scattered Cu is developing along the low-level moisture plume located near I-64 and south. Latest obs show temperatures generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with temperatures in the urban heat centers in the low-to-mid 70s as of 06Z.
956 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will continue to influence the local area through mid-week.
(Rest of Today) Low to medium chances (20-50%) for rain showers will persist through the early to mid afternoon as a weak area of low pressure meanders along the LA/MS coast. As high pressure begins to nose into the region, we can expect partly to mostly sunny conditions to develop by the mid to late afternoon. Temperatures will respond by climbing back into the low to mid 80s.
634 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (Today through Sunday) A low pressure system is to our west. The spin of the low continues to bring in southerly flow to area, so we will continue to see the banding features through the day. The low will slide to the west a little more during the day, so rain chances will dwindle east to west through the afternoon and then really not much left after sunset. With plenty of clouds and pockets of rain, temperatures will only be in the low to mid 80s. Highs will be a little warmer, especially in the east, where less cloud cover is expected.
502 AM PDT Sat Sep 2 2023 An upper low will bring cooler temperatures, more cloud cover, and a few light showers to the region this weekend. (Today and tonight) Moisture channel imagery early this morning reveals a low pressure area centered over northwest California with upper ridging downstream over the Great Plains. The upper low will remain our primary weather driver through the short-term with a continuation of increased cloud cover aloft and onshore breezes. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with highs ranging from around 65 of the coast to around 75 for the warmer inland valleys.
351 AM PDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Some showers are still ongoing over the forecast area this morning as an area low pressure is covering the region. Eventually, the low will start to kick out to the east around Sunday afternoon and evening. Even with the low departing, the chance of rain still exists as a cold front descends on the region around Sunday evening.
A broad upper level ridge will be over the Southern/Central Great Plains, with a weak southwesterly flow aloft over CO. The highest precipitable water values will remain on the west side of the Continental Divide, similar to yesterday.
708 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure drifts closer to the Atlantic coast and weak low pressure slides through northern Ontario today which draws mid level moisture eastward from the upper Midwest. SW surface wind originates from the the high pressure air mass to keep conditions fully VFR this afternoon and tonight. Daytime highs today will be limited by both cloud cover aloft and the fact that the thermal ridge axis is still well upstream, but highs will still reach into the low to mid 80s. Warm advection reinvigorates overnight as the nocturnal low level jet kicks in across the Upper Midwest, which helps fold the low level thermal ridge into lower Michigan by Sunday.
630 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Temperatures will continue to heat up with hot conditions developing by Labor Day when highs reach the low to mid 90s.
744 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure has wedged down the southeastern coast and tighten the local gradients, resulting in breezy conditions which have persisted overnight along the immediate coast. Breezy conditions with gusts around 15-20 mph inland and 20-25 mph at the coast this afternoon before the high begins to weaken and gradients gradually relax tonight. Cooler than normal temps continue amid the breezy onshore flow with high temps in the mid and upper 80s this afternoon.
(Today and tonight) An upper closed low will slide west over the Arklatex region and into eastern TX by this afternoon.
1249 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper-level ridge that has been centered over the central Plains will start to erode as an upper low moves into east Texas today. Despite the strong ridge starting to weaken, conditions today will be about the same as yesterday. Otherwise, low temperatures tonight should be in the low 70s, which is similar to this morning.
Drying east-northeast flow will deepen through Sunday, as the upper low swirling near the Arklatex region retrogrades west and exits out of our weather picture.
138 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 19z surface analysis had trough/dry-line from central MT to Faith to KANW. Upper low off the northern CA coast. Few mid/high clouds over the CWA allowing for robust insolation and temperatures rocketing into the 90s to around 100F - some 80s over the higher elevations. Main concern this forecast is disposition of upper ridge/upper low.
An upper level low is spinning over north Texas. Could see a few isolated showers or storms across our far eastern counties on Sunday afternoon due to the proximity of the low. An upper level low will be moving slowly northward over northeastern TX/southeastern OK Sunday evening. This low, along with some increased low level moisture in our southeastern counties, may result in some lingering evening thunderstorms in Brown and San Saba counties.
(Today and tonight) An upper-level ridge that has been centered over the central Plains will start to erode as an upper low moves into east Texas today. Despite the strong ridge starting to weaken, conditions today will be about the same as yesterday. Otherwise, low temperatures tonight should be in the low 70s, which is similar to this morning. An upper level low will be moving slowly northward over northeastern TX/southeastern OK Sunday evening. This low, along with some increased low level moisture in our southeastern counties, may result in some lingering evening thunderstorms in Brown and San Saba counties.
An upper low will bring cooler temperatures, more cloud cover, and a few light showers to the region this weekend.
1221 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 The warming trend continues today as Upper Michigan remains under the influence of west-southwesterly flow with high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic and a low approaching the Hudson Bay. So far this morning, temperatures are much warmer than the last few nights with current ground based obs reporting widespread 60s and even some 70s along the Keweenaw. And, they are not expected to drop much below the low 60s, either, over the next few hours.
Broad upper-level ridging extends from the Rockies to the Ohio River Valley region driving the warm and dry conditions. High pressure remains over the region, where we will see southwesterly winds keeping dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s.
(This evening through Sunday night) Through Sunday, dry upper ridge, very apparent on satellite over W TX/KS/MO, will tend to wane as an upper low, currently over the ArkLaTex region, churns northwestward and western CONUS trough advances eastward. With southwesterly flow aloft slowly returning, surface lee troughing looks to be maintained to our west, driving a bit of a southerly breeze.
Upper ridge overhead, with high pressure to our east. Tonight, mostly clear skies and a southerly breeze will allow us to cool off into the low 60s.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: A broad ridge of high pressure extended across much of the country with an upper low along the west coast. The low will be slow to move inland, keeping hot and dry air over the region through the weekend. Sunday a wave in the northern stream begins to phase with the Pacific coast low, pushing the ridge eastward and helping to pull monsoonal moisture northward.
255 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure over the Carolinas will weaken and move off the SE US coast on Sunday as a low pressure trough develops over the North Carolina Piedmont. Otherwise, upper level ridging will extend into the area from the west through mid week. Upstairs, aside from some very thin cirrus, dry N- NWLY between an expansive ridge to the west and a deep upper trough over the western Atlantic will result in mostly clear/sunny conditions. Lows in the lower to middle 60s.
308 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Expansive/broad upper ridge is expected to persist through the rest of the weekend across the Northern Plains.
240 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure is going to keep the area dry over the next several days, while temperatures start to warm once again. Continued benign ridge dominated regime for the weekend with NW flow aloft. Upper ridging looks to amplify some for Sunday along with a possible weak reinforcing dry front pushing southward. Temps look to moderate warmer for Sunday with most of the Piedmont having highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and the mountains mainly low to mid 80s. High pressure will remain in control across the Mid Atlantic to start the week. Temperatures will continue to soar above normal due to an upper level ridge building eastward towards the Appalachian Mountains.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon Through Sunday/ Another hot, rain-free day is unfolding across North and Central Texas as the region remains on the western periphery of an upper low. The upper low is progged to move directly overhead late tonight into Sunday morning. The low-level wind field will respond by shifting out of the south/southwest, establishing a fairly decent fetch of Gulf moisture for the first time in a while.
An upper low will bring cooler temperatures, more cloud cover, and a few light showers to the region this weekend. Forecast is near persistence in near term since the upper low over northern California remains nearly stationary today and tonight. (Today and tonight) Moisture channel imagery early this morning reveals a low pressure area centered over northwest California with upper ridging downstream over the Great Plains. The upper low will remain our primary weather driver through the short-term with a continuation of increased cloud cover aloft and onshore breezes. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with highs ranging from around 65 of the coast to around 75 for the warmer inland valleys.
With dewpoint values climbing into the low to mid 70s across Deep East Texas and portions of north Louisiana, heat index values could approach advisory criteria of 105 across isolated locations on Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could linger through mid to late evening both tonight and again on Sunday night with overnight low temperatures in the lower 70s across most locations both nights.
130 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure will extend across the mid Atlantic and Carolinas through Sunday, then weaken as a low pressure trough develops over the North Carolina Piedmont. A great start to the weekend as high pressure moves to western NC today and tonight. Expect mostly sunny to sunny skies as the mid/upper low near the Gulf Coast slowly retrogrades.
234 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure will extend across the mid Atlantic and Carolinas through Sunday, then weaken as a low pressure trough develops over the North Carolina Piedmont. A great start to the weekend as high pressure moves to western NC today and tonight. Expect mostly sunny to sunny skies as the mid/upper low near the Gulf Coast slowly retrogrades.
1210 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (The rest of today ) Upper low trapped under ridge spreading some cloud cover across parts of far SE OK/WC AR this morning. Temperatures will warm into the mid 90s where more sun will occur, but heat index values will remain in check with with dewpoints in the lower 60s.
Discussion: Above normal temperatures continue thanks to a stout upper level ridge in place over the central CONUS. Ridging remains in place through the weekend as a cut off low currently over ARKLATEX meanders a bit further west towards the DFW Metroplex. High temperatures tomorrow are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s, however dewpoints should remain in the low to mid 60s, keeping heat indices in check.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Tonight the upper ridge will extend from NM to VA with a low over NE TX and a strong low along the CA coast.
Temps on Sunday afternoon will be just slightly warmer than Saturday as warm advection continues to draw in warmer air with all but far west and coastal zones reaching 80 degrees. The upper level trof to the east will move off over the waters Sunday night. Some moisture with the trof could develop some late evening showers, but decided to not put it into the forecast due to low confidence.
2) Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday afternoon mainly over/near the higher terrain. While still on the weak side, this could help with higher coverage of showers and storms Sunday afternoon as well as the potential for a few to move off of the higher terrain.
Elevated fire weather will be driven by low RH (15-20%) across our western counties, with the lowest RH values in western north Texas. Winds, on the other hand, are forecast to be rather light (5 to 15 mph) especially where RHs are the lowest.
102 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Temperatures will continue to heat up with hot conditions developing by Labor Day when highs reach the low to mid 90s.
1131 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis extending from the Central Plains through the Northern Plains, with upper low along the coast. At the surface, lee trof had advanced into eastern MT/WY/CO. Upper ridge axis will dominate our wx over the weekend with hot and dry conditions expected. Surface trof advancing across the western Dakotas today will also help downslope flow add to the heat.
Discussion: High pressure will remain stationary over the southern Appalachians through tonight.
(The rest of today ) Upper low trapped under ridge spreading some cloud cover across parts of far SE OK/WC AR this morning. Temperatures will warm into the mid 90s where more sun will occur, but heat index values will remain in check with with dewpoints in the lower 60s.
Temps should drop to near to below normal overall tonight, with the lowest values expected over interior southeast GA where some values in the mid 60s are forecast. (Sunday and Sunday night) A pleasant day is expected on Sunday with subsidence from high pressure ridging combining with unseasonably dry air aloft.
Tonight, lows will drop into the low-mid 70s inland to around 80 along the coast.
223 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 There's certainly no lack of moisture in the lower levels across eastern Utah and western Colorado today. The cutoff low pressure that has been off the West Coast the last few days will begin to move inland tonight. What this newly mobile trough will also do is increase the pressure gradient aloft. Showers will begin to taper after sunset, but as the trough approaches Utah, an uptick in nocturnal convection is in the cards.
110 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Updated the forecast to raise max T grids, based on current obs that are running warmer than forecast in some locations, as well as the fact that the NBM has been too low on forecast max T the last couple days. High pressure in control providing dry weather for the forecast area.
With a slow moving developing low pressure over the plains, a more mature low in Canada, and a high over the SE CONUS, the southwesterly flow regime will persist through the holiday weekend. Sunday is expected to be sunnier, warmer, and breezier thanks to an increase in PGF. Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the mid 50s will allow our RH reach around 21 to 27 percent for the daily minimum, with the lowest humidity in the western half of our CWA.
1040 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Clear skies and well above normal temperatures will persist through the weekend -- courtesy of a stagnant upper level ridge over the central United States.
By tonight into Sunday, the upper low that has given us the rain chances the past few days will slowly begin to slide west into Texas. With the increased rain coverage temperatures will be running a little below normal with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Currently, scattered Cu is developing along the low-level moisture plume located near I-64 and south. Latest obs show temperatures generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with temperatures in the urban heat centers in the low-to-mid 70s as of 06Z.
1245 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Clear skies and well above normal temperatures will persist through the weekend -- courtesy of a stagnant upper level ridge over the central United States.
327 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Short Term/Marine -- Very small chance for a shower or storm this evening -- High pressure that brought dry air and cool temperatures to the area the last few days has slipped away to the south today. What has occurred though is a narrow ribbon of moisture is in place along a warm front essentially moving from north to south into Central Lower Michigan.
112 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will continue to influence the local area through mid-week.
A large upper-level low pressure system is currently centered near the borders of California, Nevada, and Oregon. This low is helping push clouds and additional moisture up and into the Northern Rockies. Cloud cover and precipitation will lead to cooler daytime high temperatures.
301 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Compact upper level wave tracking through the northern Great Lakes has been able to generate isolated-scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms north of M-59 with the steep mid level lapse rates and moisture plume (850-700 MB Theta-E ridge) strung across northern Wisconsin/northern Michigan. With activity still noted across Wisconsin, will keep isolated mention going into the evening hours, although at least the 700 MB jet/wind speeds are diminishing after 00z which should lead to activity ending tonight as 700 MB ridge builds in for Sunday.
Upper ridging this weekend shifts to southwesterly flow ahead of an upper trough. This should re- introduce sufficient moisture near and ahead of the trough.
208 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Through Sunday: The region remains in a weather regime driven by a mid/upper low over north TX and a rather moist airmass across the Deep South. Convective coverage will decrease overnight with the loss of diurnal instability, though with continued forcing from the mid/upper low, we could again see some showers persist through the early morning hours.
/Issued 1124 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023/ /This Afternoon Through Sunday/ Another hot, rain-free day is unfolding across North and Central Texas as the region remains on the western periphery of an upper low. The upper low is progged to move directly overhead late tonight into Sunday morning. The low-level wind field will respond by shifting out of the south/southwest, establishing a fairly decent fetch of Gulf moisture for the first time in a while.
(Tonight) Cloud cover has hung around a little bit longer than expected, but temperatures have still climbed into the low to mid 80s.
On Sunday, expect another great summer- like day with highs a few degrees warmer than today, topping out around 90 for the Clarksville area, possibly Columbia, Nashville and surrounding areas along with points and east toward Carthage.
322 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Currently have strong upper ridging encompassing most of the Central and Southern Plains with water vapor showing a lingering upper circulation over the Arklatex region. Meanwhile, further west, an upper low is approaching northern CA. At the surface, lee troughing is in place across western Nebraska into Eastern CO with high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. Not much is expected to change through Sunday as the upper circulation tracks slowly west into northeast TX with upper ridging over the remainder of the Plains.