Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Models then show good agreement with convective development Saturday night into Sunday as a wave digs across the Northern Plains and suppresses the upper ridge southward. There will be periodic TSRA chances that will further impact temperatures before the ridge begins to recover northward toward the end of the week. Models then show good agreement with convective development Saturday night into Sunday as a wave digs across the Northern Plains and suppresses the upper ridge southward. There will be periodic TSRA chances that will further impact temperatures before the ridge begins to recover northward toward the end of the week.
224 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure will be over the area through tonight before moving off the coast Sunday.
153 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes tonight and Saturday. A warm front will bring some showers in from the west later Sunday.
143 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 Tranquil weather will continue tonight into Saturday morning under weak high pressure.
If showers and storms hold off, temps could rise in the far west, and combined with the high surface moisture could lead to heat index values over 100 degrees in spots. The higher temps in the west will allow for increased instability, so a few strong storms may be possible in the afternoon.
This morning, the placement of the low and dry air in the north has mainly kept showers limited to along and south of Interstate 94. This trend may continue through the morning as the overall track of the low is slow today. As the low moves and broadens a bit later today, shower activity could then expand slightly northward and across eastern portions of the CWA. The higher QPF this morning will generally be in the southwest, then shift more to the south central and southeast later today. Low pressure system will continue to push eastward tonight. Winds could also be breezy in a few southern areas through tonight as this low moves out. Low temperatures where rain has ended will be cooler than recent nights and generally in the 50s.
Closed upper low with ample deep layer moisture will continue to slowly shift east out of the region today with lingering showers and isolated TS expected, esp from the BH northeast.
(Today and tonight) Today has a similar feel to yesterday, unfortunately perhaps even a degree or two hotter as the broad subtropical ridge over TX and NM strengthens even further. The big question is how far south can any t-storm activity advance and survive into the more hostile environment of the upper ridge.
another quiet early August day is on tap as weak high pressure works over the region. models have continued to trend slower/south with the eastward progression of the low pressure system and trough, with the weak high pressure hanging on in our area as it slowly drifts into MI, so will back off PoPs and go dry. The slower/south trend will keep a dry easterly flow in our area, keeping most/all spots dry through the day, but as the low gets closer, low chances for mainly showers (and possibly a rumble of thunder) will increase in the afternoon. Temps look to be similar to Saturday or just a tad cooler with highs mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s, with some mid 80s if the clouds can hold off a little.
At the surface, a low pressure system will remain over the western and central part of the state tonight, keeping that region as the main focus area for showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s. When the period opens Saturday night, rain chances are ongoing across the CWA as an occluded low pressure system should be spinning eastward over the region. On Sunday, the low is forecast to shift away from the area such that rain chances will be diminishing throughout the day.
426 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure will build across the area today which will provide dry pleasant summertime weather.
1203 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 (This evening through Sunday) High pressure, will continue to control the weather pattern through the rest of today and into the weekend. However, a slight pattern change is expected this weekend as the upper level ridge slides back to the west. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 90s to near 100 degrees Saturday with heat index values up to 105 degrees in the north and up to 115 degrees for central and southern locations.
315 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 Key Points: - Near-average temperatures today before cooler air sets in by Sunday morning. - Severe weather possible along a cold front this evening; damaging winds and large hail will be the main concerns. By this afternoon and evening, a strong upper low will eject into the northern Plains with a trough axis extending south into western Kansas. Instability will increase across the area to around 1500-2000 J/kg with bulk shear increasing to 30-40 knots ahead of the upper low. Given the deep shear in this area due to the proximity to the upper low, storms congealing into a MCS could become a possibility. The cold front will push through the area by Sunday morning, bringing in cooler and much drier into northeastern Kansas.
Temperatures also near climo for Saturday, then slightly above climo by Sunday as the low level boundary washes out and the flow becomes more south-southwest in the afternoon.
Conditions are favorable for some convection to take place later this weekend as an upper level trough is lifted from the northern plains and starts to build over Minnesota as a boundary lifts over the state bringing in sufficient instability and additional forcing for ascent. Further west, a short wave from Canada will produce troughing which will help build and strengthen the Low Level Jet (LLJ) responsible for unsettled weather over the Dakotas. Once this system departs, northwest upper flow will prevail through the rest of the forecast period with cooler than normal temperatures. The farther east and north the lower the chance for rain.
As the weekend progresses, showers will move northwards as a semi-stationary area of low pressure will strengthen over the Pacific Northwest. This feature will create instability to interact with the available moisture and help provide for a prolonged period of cooler, cloudy, and wet weather.
343 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 Key Message: Flash Flooding expected over portions of the southern outlook area early this morning! Early This Morning: Clearly defined MCV on radar continues to slowly track to the ENE along/south of the highway 34 corridor. Thus most of the forecast uncertainty lies with the degree of destabilization that can occur near and south of a surface warm front.
The upper- level ridge continues to make its presence known this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to reach the low to middle 100s for almost the entire region. Everyone can expect temperatures a degree or two warmer than this afternoon.
The upper level ridge that has brought intense heat to the region this summer will remain generally in place today, and also intensify. The ridge will remain centered over southern NM today, and is expected to strengthen to a height near 598dam.
923 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure will be over the area through tonight before moving off the coast Sunday.
630 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure will be over the area through tonight before moving off the coast Sunday.
The first will be the warm advective phase with heavy rain associated with the low level jet. Phase two will be a synoptically forced deformation region to the north/northwest of the low that will bring a widespread steady rain, with embedded thunderstorms, to much of our MN CWA for Sunday. This will allow for a nice stretch of windows open weather, with lows getting into the 50s and highs getting into the low 80s at best.
Warmer and drier conditions expected over the first half of the new week. Today through Sunday night A slow-moving upper trough is expected to linger over the Pacific Northwest through the weekend, while an upper ridge remains over the southern U. Mid-level moisture and lift ahead of the trough will lead to a 30-50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in Humboldt and Elko Counties.
Mid cloud thickens late tonight as low pressure tracks into the northern Ohio Valley with ceilings eventually lowering over the course of Sunday as low level moisture begins to increase. Mid/high clouds will only thicken up further today, despite seasonably strong high pressure (~1021 MB) established across the northern Great Lakes.
Key Message: Flash Flooding expected over portions of the southern outlook area early this morning! Early This Morning: Clearly defined MCV on radar continues to slowly track to the ENE along/south of the highway 34 corridor. Thus most of the forecast uncertainty lies with the degree of destabilization that can occur near and south of a surface warm front.
623 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 (Today through Sunday) Mid-level ridging will remain parked over the state of Texas through the weekend. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Current temperatures reflect this change and many locales are running around 5-10 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. In the Central Valley, readings range from the lower 60s near the Delta to the mid 70s to lower 80s across the northern Sacramento Valley. High pressure strengthens across the area through the weekend resulting in a return of hot weather and moderate heat risk. Enough moisture/instability remains coupled with a lingering weak short- wave trough for an isolated late afternoon thunderstorm to pop again near Mt Lassen.
511 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 Key Messages: * Much of the local area remains in a slight risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening as a strong cold front crosses the local area. * Noticably cooler temperatures and breezy northwesterly winds are expected Sunday.
Given the dry air and high freezing levels, thunder chances will be limited again for today. Weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward across the Bahamas will maintain light mainly southeast breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters, becoming variable at times in the afternoon and evening hours, through Sunday evening.
Weak high pressure will follow and extend across the middle Atlantic through Sunday. At the sfc, yesterday's weak low and associated cold front have shifted east of our area. The upper ridge across the southern Plains will start to deamplify on Sunday allowing flow to turn a bit more wswly over central NC.
Highs will generally be in the lower to mid 80s over nern CO. This front combined with the upper level jet may allow for redevelopment of sct showers and storms thru the late evening hours across portions of the higher terrain and plains.
Key Messages: * Much of the local area remains in a slight risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening as a strong cold front crosses the local area. * Noticably cooler temperatures and breezy northwesterly winds are expected Sunday.
517 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes tonight and Saturday. A warm front will bring some showers in from the west later Sunday.
922 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes tonight and Saturday. A warm front will bring some showers in from the west later Sunday.
625 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 Very slow moving upper trof/low over the Dakotas this morning, will continue to move/dig slowly to the southeast over the next couple of days, providing for fairly widespread rains to the region through tonight. There is a bit of a lull in the activity currently, but with daytime heating and another wave rounding the trof, expect an expansion of convection again this afternoon over the northeast part of SD.
Warmer and drier conditions expected over the first half of the new week. Warmer and drier conditions expected over the first half of the new week. Today through Sunday night A slow-moving upper trough is expected to linger over the Pacific Northwest through the weekend, while an upper ridge remains over the southern U. Mid-level moisture and lift ahead of the trough will lead to a 30-50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in Humboldt and Elko Counties.
Locally hot conditions will occur across interior valleys this weekend, followed by slightly cooler conditions during much of the upcoming work week.
A cold front moving through will bring cooler and windier weather to the area tonight through Sunday.
610 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 (Today and tonight) Today has a similar feel to yesterday, unfortunately perhaps even a degree or two hotter as the broad subtropical ridge over TX and NM strengthens even further. The big question is how far south can any t-storm activity advance and survive into the more hostile environment of the upper ridge.
(Today through Sunday) Mid-level ridging will remain parked over the state of Texas through the weekend. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
734 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes tonight and Saturday. A warm front will bring some showers in from the west later Sunday.
The only element for inhibition is presence of slightly warmer temps @H5 of -5.
Key Points: - Near-average temperatures today before cooler air sets in by Sunday morning. - Severe weather possible along a cold front this evening; damaging winds and large hail will be the main concerns. By this afternoon and evening, a strong upper low will eject into the northern Plains with a trough axis extending south into western Kansas. Instability will increase across the area to around 1500-2000 J/kg with bulk shear increasing to 30-40 knots ahead of the upper low. Given the deep shear in this area due to the proximity to the upper low, storms congealing into a MCS could become a possibility. The cold front will push through the area by Sunday morning, bringing in cooler and much drier into northeastern Kansas.
The high resolution models keep the best convective coverage over the southern CWA with a less batch to run across the CWA northern border. So will go with the highest pops in those areas. The northeast looks pretty stable with the cooler airmass in place. The eastern plains will be more stable into Sunday evening as cooler air continue to push in from the northeast.
Winds are expected to go calm tonight as a result of said high pressure, leading to efficient radiational cooling with mostly clear skies overnight. Temperatures look to dip into the low 50s for many interior areas of northern Michigan with warmer lows in the mid to upper 50s for those close to the lakeshores.
229 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 With the low pressure in South Dakota continuing to move off to the east, rain rates in the southwest has decreased drastically. The highest rainfall rates currently are in the southeast where clusters of thunderstorms have been going on all day. We have reduced the high temperatures today since the north stayed in the clouds longer, and the NBM temps from this morning were too high. The southeast could be a little breezy with the pressure gradient force still existing from the low.
There is also some Cumulus developing over the Palmer Ridge and eastern plains. Highs will generally be in the lower to mid 80s over nern CO. This front combined with the upper level jet may allow for redevelopment of sct showers and storms thru the late evening hours across portions of the higher terrain and plains.
(This evening through Sunday) Upper ridging and hot conditions continue.
Temperatures will begin to trend warm with Sunday's afternoon hours reaching the low to mid 90s.
3) Finally, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of Colorado this afternoon as upslope flow beneath strong westerlies aloft will provide an environment favorable for organized convection. One item that may temper the magnitude of the severe weather potential is the ongoing convection across northern Oklahoma, which could limit the air mass recovery; however, the low-level jet may help offset this effect. Similar to today, the convective outflow from tonight's complex will be an effective cold front for Sunday with lower temperatures to its north and dangerous heat to its south.
We are advertising a 'Marginal' risk for severe mainly along the Highway 82 corridor.
At the surface a lingering trough will slowly shift off the GA coast. Temperatures tonight will dip into the low 70s inland with mid 70s closer to the coastline. Highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s with lows mostly in the mid 70s.
At the surface a lingering trough will slowly shift off the GA coast. Temperatures will dip down into the lower to middle 70s to near 80F at the beaches. Temperatures will top out in the low 90s away from the beaches and overnight mins will sit in the mid to upper 70s.
Very slow moving upper trof/low over the Dakotas this morning, will continue to move/dig slowly to the southeast over the next couple of days, providing for fairly widespread rains to the region through tonight. There is a bit of a lull in the activity currently, but with daytime heating and another wave rounding the trof, expect an expansion of convection again this afternoon over the northeast part of SD.
137 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 Weather is quiet again early this morning with high level clouds streaming southeast across the area and temperatures mainly in the low 50s.
A cold front will move through the area on Sunday.
More rain chances are possible mid- to late-week with temperatures trending a little cooler. Plenty of clouds continue to move in across the region this afternoon as a broad area of low pressure over South Dakota gradually moves east. This low continues to trend south with the latest models, and as such, rain chances remain less as compared to forecasts a day or two ago. This general area of fgen is expected to gradually drift southeast as a cold front on Sunday, and it may coincide with diurnal heating to produce additional thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. The front and low pressure will start to retreat southeast Sunday night, bringing an end to rain chances.
Changes happen a bit more quickly late tonight and Sunday morning with the low very near southeast MI with ceilings falling below 5000 feet and the first chance of rain showers in the late morning. Mid/high clouds will only thicken up further today, despite seasonably strong high pressure (~1021 MB) established across the northern Great Lakes.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Concur with deterministic output that the upper level high pressure system will remain over the region during the period, and that PWAT values will remain slightly below normal, thus precipitation not anticipated.
A cold front will move into the region late in the day and more likely in the evening, but the flow ahead of it will be quite veered, so convergence is likely to be limited.
A nearly stationary low pressure system over Oregon and Washington State will continue to bring waves of showers and thunderstorms to our region this afternoon.
205 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 A weak high pressure ridge will build over the region from the west through Sunday morning, before pushing eastward off the Mid Atlantic coast.
As the low moves over central Indiana, the region will see southwesterly flow, which will increase moisture and cloud cover over the region. As the low continues to track northeast, it will likely bring another round of showers and storms into the region after 0Z and lasting through most of the overnight period.
The synoptic pattern remains dominated by the presence of a robust midlevel trough over the S.
For today and Sunday, have gone with mostly chance to likely pops each day, with the higher pops generally over the eastern portion of the area where the best deep layer moisture and convective environment is anticipated. This environment will favor strong storms with strong wind gusts as the primary threat, and cannot rule out a severe storm or two each day should the higher end MLCAPE and DCAPE values be realized.
The low becomes a bit less defined as we move into Sunday but the moisture remains and we should once again have some fairly decent coverage of precip, perhaps a bit better than today, especially across the northern half of the area.
(Through tonight) Issued at 249 PM EDT SAT AUG 5 2023 High pressure centered along the north shore of Lake Superior will allow tranquil/seasonable weather to persist through tonight.
(Through tonight) Issued at 249 PM EDT SAT AUG 5 2023 High pressure centered along the north shore of Lake Superior will allow tranquil/seasonable weather to persist through tonight. Additional troughing will be located over northern portions of MB/ON. At the start of the period, rainfall may be ongoing over northern MN as enhanced deep-layer moisture interacts with a lower level convergence axis that extends northward from the Plains low and links up with a weak cold front extending southward from the northern Canada low.
An active pattern is expected for the upcoming week, with temperatures a bit cooler than average. Still, the latest mesoanalysis has 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with 20-30kts of effective shear, with the highest shear near the IL/IN border. The next system to affect the area is an upper level low that will move southeast from SD on Sunday.
High pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions over the next few days.
337 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 (Issued 336 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023) Tonight through Sunday night: Diurnal cumulus and a few showers in far southern portions of the area are expected through the remainder of the afternoon hours today, with temperatures approaching highs in the lower 80s.
209 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023 A weak trough/boundary extends east/west across Montana today with instability showers and thunderstorms popping up along and to the south of it.
Given the high moisture levels in the atmosphere, heavy rain cannot be ruled out either.
354 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 Mostly drier conditions continue through Sunday, thanks to weak high pressure from the northeast. Mostly clear skies and calm winds tonight with patchy fog in the morning and min temps in the low 70s. Highs in the low 90s Sunday with some humidity in the low level onshore flow. Weak upper low over the Midwest transitions into an open wave and moves through the southern Great Lakes region. This applies a broad trough into the Mid South and mid-Atlantic states, but doesn't really touch the local forecast area.
1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 (Today and tonight) Today has a similar feel to yesterday, unfortunately perhaps even a degree or two hotter as the broad subtropical ridge over TX and NM strengthens even further. The big question is how far south can any t-storm activity advance and survive into the more hostile environment of the upper ridge.
We had some isolated SHRA/TSRA on the gradient of the better instability this morning and early afternoon, but most of that has dissipated, with precipitation now mainly to our west in association with the warm core upper low and associated surface feature. Some localized higher/lower amounts will occur given the convective nature of things, but the primary forcing from the surface and upper lows (and the coincident instability and moisture transport) looks to focus west/south of where it was indicated a couple of days ago. This feature is somewhat analogous to the predecessor rain events that are sometimes seen poleward of tropical systems, where persistent and widespread latent heat release to the south results in a displaced area of frontogenesis and upper divergence as the low-mid level thermal gradient and upper level winds increase.
A northward trend was noted in some guidance late tonight suggesting the deformation zone on the north side of the low may eventually win out and provide the IN-MI line with a period of steady rain.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Upper ridge centered over SE NM and Far W TX today with a 597 high with a broad ridge extending from SE CA to MS. The high strengthens a bit Sunday. Sunday will be a degree or so warmer so will issue another one for the tomorrow afternoon with widespread 105 degrees or more for the plains and 100 or so for the mountains.