Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Another very warm day (record breaking for some) is expected today with model guidance showing the high pressure ridge axis to pass through the Northern Rockies today. Satellite loops overnight show a broad low pressure system rotating off the Pacific Northwest coast. Model guidance remains in agreement for the low pressure center to track south along the west coast early this week. The high pressure ridge will be displaced eastward and northward, leaving the Northern Rockies between the low pressure system and ridge axis this week. Model clusters show the low pressure system moving northward during the end of the week.
(Today and tonight) Quiet conditions will continue through the morning into early afternoon before a backdoor cold front pushes through the region. Despite a FROPA, tonight will not be much different from this morning with lows only dropping into the low/upper 40s.
Lows tonight will be cool ranging from the middle 40s to the lower 50s. A reinforcement of dry air will arrive on Sunday behind a weak cold front. It will also be slightly warmer than tonight with lows generally in the lower and middle 50s.
Lows tonight will be cool ranging from the middle 40s to the lower 50s. A reinforcement of dry air will arrive on Sunday behind a weak cold front. It will also be slightly warmer than tonight with lows generally in the lower and middle 50s. /Issued 315 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023/ /Monday Onward/ North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of upper level ridging over the next few days, which should result in rain-free conditions through at least the first half of the work week.
1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Sunday will see an omega block begin to form over the CONUS with West Texas on the east side of the ridge. However, the main forecast concern in the short term will be the intrusion of a back door cold front Sunday afternoon. A surface cyclone will develop in east-central New Mexico and move over the South Plains during the afternoon. The surface cyclone will allow for very dry air and breezy west winds to invade the southwestern South Plains.
300 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 An upper level low was across Wisconsin this morning. Some upper energy rotating around the low was producing an area of rain that was moving across central Indiana. The upper low will be the main influence throughout the short term. A couple of rounds of upper energy will rotate around the upper low as it shifts slowly east today. Yet more upper energy will rotate across the area tonight as the upper low moves across Lower Michigan.
158 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2023 An upper ridge will slowly move eastward over the Northern Rockies through Monday night. This ridge will bring dry conditions, warm days and cool nights to the region. These breezy conditions will result from the pressure gradient strengthening between high pressure over the Dakotas and low pressure over western MT/western WY. High temperatures will range from the 50s in Fallon and Carter Counties to the lower 70s over south central MT today, and from the 60s over southeast MT to the 70s, even upper 70s, in south central MT on Monday. The coolest air will be over Fallon and Carter Counties as the easterly flow advects cooler air westward into the area.
Temperatures will be a little cooler behind this cold front, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
A closed upper low is settling into the Upper Midwest this afternoon and will meander over the Great Lakes region for the next several days. A reinforcing cold front is moving south through the forecast area, currently located along a Falls City to Concordia line. With little movement in the aforementioned closed upper low, the breezy and dry airmass will remain in place Sunday and Monday, keeping fire weather at the forefront of forecast concerns. As a result, highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 60s with a stout northwest wind gusting at 30-40mph making it feeler cooler.
An upper level trough continues to dig in over the Great Lakes early this morning. As a result, a wind advisory has been issued for these areas where wind gusts will have the highest potential to reach 45 mph. Across the forested areas of Minnesota, minimum RH values are also expected to drop into the low to mid 30s, with some upper 20s not out of the question. Otherwise, another day of high temperatures in the low to mid 50s is expected.
1049 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2023 The amplified ridge has built into the interior of western NOAM and pushing heights some 20dam over 24 hours ago. The clear skies under this ridge and WAA aloft is pushing temperatures back to normal this afternoon and we will add another 3 to 6 degrees to that tomorrow. The forecast as a whole is mostly uneventful under this ridge. However the dynamic trop surface does show a very weak wave cresting the ridge tonight and dropping through the Colorado Rockies during the peak heating timeframe. Overnight lows will be warming slightly as well but remain below freezing in the bulk of the high country where the beefiest snowpack remains locked for a bit longer. The pattern starts out on Monday with an elongated ridge of high pressure positioned directly over our longitude.
150 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 (06Z TAFS) Low-level wind shear is a concern for the next couple hours with the lowest 1kft now more stable.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday):Large scale ridging over Texas extending north into the Rocky Mtns will provide very fine weather for Deep South Texas today and fair conditions Monday. Sunday night temperatures will be 5 to 8 degrees warmer with lows in the low to mid 60s with highs on Monday a few degrees warmer in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
(Today and tonight) Weak cold front will move over the region early this morning, with the main impacts being a gusty northerly wind through the morning hours and also slightly cooler temperatures across northern Oklahoma (compared to yesterday).
- Cooler Sunday, but near to above average temperatures the remainder of the week.
1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 A mid level closed low is currently tracking east across central MS and will move east of the area later tonight bringing an end to considerable convective rainfall before daybreak Sunday. Lows tonight will be a little cooler than last night, into the lower and middle 50s F. Humidity will be noticeably lower which will mean that despite temperatures today and Sunday being similar in the afternoon, with a breezy northwest wind it will likely feel a few degrees cooler in the shade. Overall, a pleasant end to the weekend is expected with temperatures most of the day in the 60s F to near 70 F and highs topping out in the lower 70s F across the area.
Ridging will continue to control the weather and bring a nice end to the weekend with comfortably warm temperatures and a good deal of sunshine. Temperatures will continue to warm as well, with high temperatures into the 70s and possibly a few 80s in the warmer spots.
1048 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Latest surface analysis is showing a cold front extending from Michigan southward into the Mid South with a weak post frontal trough over southeastern Missouri. These areas will be in low level cyclonic flow in relatively close proximity to the upper low. Temperatures will cool down behind the front with lows falling back into the lower-mid 40s tonight and highs ranging from the mid- upper 50s over the northeast half of the CWA on Sunday where clouds are more likely closer to the upper low to the lower 60s over central and southeast Missouri where they are more likely to be some sunshine.
234 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Cold front is cutting through the area this morning. Maxes will be limited by cold advection but should still be in the low to mid 60s.
This low will bring a chance of showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder across the northern and eastern portions of the area Sunday afternoon. Winds will stay on the breezy side with sustained speeds of 15-20 mph and out of the NW, so temperatures will be on the cooler side with highs in the 60s. High pressure will build in behind these showers, leading to a clear and cool night.
1246 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Windy, drier, and cooler weather prevailed today. Strong northwest winds should settle down this evening as high pressure washes over the CWA. Quiet weather will prevail the remainder of the short term with a strong, mid-level blocking ridge over the Desert Southwest. Surface conditions will be dominated by broad high pressure.
08/DML (Tonight through Monday night) Cold front is well east of the area, but the closed mid/upper level low is moving across central LA currently. By Sunday and Monday, heights rise with daytime highs jumping into the lower 80s.
The southern low will drift east across the MS Valley and Gulf Coast tonight, dragging its inverted trof across the remainder of the eastern FA shortly. The parent/primary upper low that pinwheels across the Great Lakes will drag another boundary/cold front across the FA, cycling instability showers/potentially a clap of thunder (mainly heat of day) thru tmrw. The clouds/cool air will hold stubbornly into the start of the new week, though with the center of the low moving a little further east, we'll get out of the core of it and thus be a little drier in the forecast Monday.
We can look forward to our highs today fairing closer to average area wide, as high pressure keeps the NW winds mixing the air around 10 mph.
(Today through Monday) Upper air analysis this morning shows northwesterly flow over Texas between a trough over the eastern half of the country and a ridge over the west. A cooler and drier airmass has moved over the region. Tonight southeasterly winds will continue in the low levels and moist air will begin to move back into the region. Lows Monday will be around five degrees warmer than today.
A few other light showers in southern middle TN and north central AL along a trough axis will also shift east. A secondary front will approach this afternoon as a vorticity spoke spirals southeast around the upper low in the Great Lakes.
1208 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Pleasant day outside with temperatures running some 5-10 degrees below normal under short wave ridging aloft. These near-record temperatures are due in part to southwesterly downslope winds and also in part to compressional warming ahead of a cold front. This cold front will enter the northern Permian Basin in the late afternoon hours, bringing winds around to a northeasterly direction, then progressing southward to the Rio Grande by the early morning hours Monday.
Satellite imagery this evening shows some patchy high clouds streaming across the area in NW flow aloft on the downstream side of the upper level ridge axis progressing east toward the Northern Rockies. At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure extends south from central Canada across north-central and eastern MT with the pressure gradient on the western side of the high bringing steadier east to southeast winds to the north- central MT plains.
516 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 An anomalously large, strong upper low will spin and wobble over the Great Lakes through the short term period. A lobe rotating around it is supporting a cold front which is over central KY early this morning. Unusually cold air aloft moving over the region in association with the upper low will result in instability developing this afternoon, especially as some limited heating tries to occur. As cold as the atmosphere will be (freezing level generally 3. With continued cold air advection in the lower levels and a loss of heating, the convection will become more shallow and weaken tonight.
Temperatures trend cooler Monday onward, though remain well above normal. Southerly flow aloft will increase over Nevada today and Monday ahead of an upper level low currently moving in along the west coast. The recent ridge that brought well above normal temperatures to Nevada is beginning to exit east into Utah. The remnants of high pressure along with increasing southerly flow will help push highs this afternoon a little warmer, with most valley locations in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
A weak cold front is pushing through southeast CO early this morning evident by the weak northerly wind shift and pressure rises through the plains. This will bring a couple degrees of cooling across the southeast plains today as winds shift out of the east and bank this slightly cooler airmass up against the southeast mountains. The mountains and valleys will stay warm and mostly dry beneath the upper ridge, however a weak disturbance will bring some increasing mid/high level moisture.
Expect the warmest temperatures of the week today with dry conditions continuing as high pressure remains in place across Arizona. Tranquil weather conditions are taking place early this morning across northern Arizona as a high pressure ridge sits over the Intermountain West. This translates to mid 70s in the High Country and 80s-90s in lower valley locations. Southwest breezes do return this afternoon, 10-20 mph, with increasing high-level clouds throughout the day as the ridge begins to shift eastward. As we begin the workweek, a classic "Omega Block" synoptic scale weather pattern develops across the country with low pressure systems forming along the east and west coasts and a high pressure ridge in between. This type of blocking pattern tends to last at least a few days with similar conditions expected each day.
Gloomy, brumous weather is expected today and Monday, with some lingering for NW WI into Tuesdsay as a cut off upper low pressure system slowly spins over the area.
516 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Per previous discussions, the forecast area will be under an amplified high pressure ridge sandwiched between a closed low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and another over the Great Lakes region. On Monday the low off the Northwest Coast will sink southward to a position along the northwest California coast by late afternoon. The repositioning of this system will cause the ridge axis to shift eastward while taking on a negative tilt allowing low-level moisture to move northward over the Continental Divide.
631 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 (Today through Monday) Upper air analysis this morning shows northwesterly flow over Texas between a trough over the eastern half of the country and a ridge over the west. A cooler and drier airmass has moved over the region. Tonight southeasterly winds will continue in the low levels and moist air will begin to move back into the region. Lows Monday will be around five degrees warmer than today.
610 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Much cooler and windy weather will be the prevailing theme through Monday. The large upper low will continue to deepen as it moves through the Great Lakes today. A series of channeled vort maxes rotating through the cyclonic flow will send another more subtle cold surge/trof through the region this morning that will bring a more northwest wind component and good low level CAA. Owing to the afternoon cloudiness and cooler air mass, highs today will be markedly cooler than yesterday and around 10-15 degrees below normal. An omega block will become established across the CONUS, and we remain dominated by the eastern lobe/upper low. Temperatures should be a tad warmer due to less diurnal cloudiness, although IL should see its fair share.
Morning lows across the region dipped into the low to mid 30s under mostly clear skies. An upper level trough continues to dig in over the Great Lakes early this morning. As a result, a wind advisory has been issued for these areas where wind gusts will have the highest potential to reach 45 mph. Across the forested areas of Minnesota, minimum RH values are also expected to drop into the low to mid 30s, with some upper 20s not out of the question. Otherwise, another day of high temperatures in the low to mid 50s is expected.
615 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 (Today through Monday Night) Sunday looks to feature quiet weather as ridging begins to build in overhead. An 850mb ridge should bring westerly flow aloft during the afternoon hours. On Monday, an upper level ridge over the Rockies/Great Basin will get caught between two troughs (centered over the West coast and Northeast CONUS respectively).
The short term forecast is largely unchanged aside from the tweaks to sky cover and we should rise through the 60s F and pop into the low to middle 70s F for highs by afternoon. /86/ Today and tonight: Winds will be northwesterly across the area today in the wake of a low pressure system. High pressure at the surface will continue to build southeast into the region on Monday.
High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s over most of the plains - a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Through about mid week, Colorado will be under an upper ridge over the western states, between an upper low centered over the Great Lakes and another approaching from the northwest. Together these features form an omega blocking pattern over North America.
600 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 (Today through tonight) The upper level trough that passed right across the CWA yesterday is continuing eastward and gradually becoming absorbed by a much broader long wave trough that extends across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.
406 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Per previous discussions, the forecast area will be under an amplified high pressure ridge sandwiched between a closed low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and another over the Great Lakes region. On Monday the low off the Northwest Coast will sink southward to a position along the northwest California coast by late afternoon. The repositioning of this system will cause the ridge axis to shift eastward while taking on a negative tilt allowing low-level moisture to move northward over the Continental Divide.
This is a very challenging forecast as temperatures in the lowest 5000 feet hold the key as to what kind of precipitation will make it to the surface. Most of the forecast models have temperatures at 925 and 850mb close to 0C and boundary layer temperatures will likely be a degree or so above freezing.
Otherwise, a few showers may skirt across parts of the northern zones by midday underneath the strong mid/upper level low pressure moving over the southeast. Temperatures will be a little cooler behind this cold front, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
953 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Active weather persists through this week as periodic showers and cool temperatures continue under upper level low pressure. Showers and a thunderstorm or two are expected as a cold front continues to cross the region during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
(Today through tonight) The upper level trough that passed right across the CWA yesterday is continuing eastward and gradually becoming absorbed by a much broader long wave trough that extends across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.
Almost all of the county warning area remains at or below freezing this morning. An upper level low continues to move off to the east over the Great Lakes. A north south surface pressure gradient associated with the upper low will bring gusty winds across the James River Valley this afternoon. Clear skies will also aid radiational cooling tonight dropping low temperatures below freezing. An upper level ridge over the Northern Rockies is going to progress eastward over the Northern Plains.
625 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 (Today and tonight) Quiet conditions will continue through the morning into early afternoon before a backdoor cold front pushes through the region. Despite a FROPA, tonight will not be much different from this morning with lows only dropping into the low/upper 40s.
320 AM PDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Dry, cooler and breezy today. A cool weather system will impact the region this week bringing much cooler temperatures and shower chances.
628 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 An upper level disturbance will track across the lower Ohio Valley today which could produce a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two over portions of northwest Tennessee this afternoon.
Cold front is cutting through the area this morning. Maxes will be limited by cold advection but should still be in the low to mid 60s.
622 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 (Today and tonight) Weak cold front will move over the region early this morning, with the main impacts being a gusty northerly wind through the morning hours and also slightly cooler temperatures across northern Oklahoma (compared to yesterday).
626 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Today and tonight: Winds will be northwesterly across the area today in the wake of a low pressure system. High pressure at the surface will continue to build southeast into the region on Monday.
An anomalously large, strong upper low will spin and wobble over the Great Lakes through the short term period. A lobe rotating around it is supporting a cold front which is over central KY early this morning. Unusually cold air aloft moving over the region in association with the upper low will result in instability developing this afternoon, especially as some limited heating tries to occur. As cold as the atmosphere will be (freezing level generally 3. With continued cold air advection in the lower levels and a loss of heating, the convection will become more shallow and weaken tonight.
245 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 (This afternoon through Monday) Dry air is quickly filtering in from behind a cold front that will push through over the rest of the afternoon. Winds today could pick up to 30mph with higher values across the higher elevations of NE Georgia. Beside fire weather concerns, temps and dewpoints will be pleasant the rest of the short term with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s and overnight lows falling to the mid 40s; upper 30s are possible across the higher elevations.
Tonight and Monday Synopsis: A strong and broad low pressure system will slowly move from the central to the eastern Great Lakes through Monday afternoon. Then ascent should increase again overnight tonight into Monday morning as a jet streak and warm advection wrap around the parent cyclone from the northeast.
Temperatures have warmed into the lower to mid 90s across much of area with southwest downsloping winds. Temperatures are a little cooler in Haskell and Throckmorton counties where a cold front has shifted winds out of the east- northeast. Highs tomorrow will be cooler behind the front-especially in the Big Country-where low level flow will be out of the east. Warmer conditions will prevail across the southern half of the area.
Overnight, a cold core upper low situated to our north will gradually deepen as it shifts eastward across Lower MI, maintaining intense WNW flow on the order of 90-100 knots across the TN Valley.
256 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2023 A few cumulus clouds have developed over the higher terrain this afternoon but there is very little vertical development. The axis of a upper level ridge over the western US will slide eastward closer to Colorado on Monday. Highs will reach the low 70s across the plains with gusts up to 20 mph.
High pressure near the surface remains over the area tonight keeping us dry. On Monday the upper ridge is expected to continue moving east over the Rockies as the Omega Block synoptic pattern sets up.
Upper level ridge will breakdown today as large upper level low pressure system moves southward along the Oregon coast. Mostly clear skies today and increasing easterly winds is favorable (20 percent chance) for temperatures reaching the low 90s in parts of the valley. With upper level low just west of Medford, dynamics forcing along with Surface-Based CAPES of 1000 J/KG and effective shear around 50-60 kts could support a few rotating storms for hail and gusty winds.