Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
331 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 A mid/upper trough over the Rockies today is progged to translate eastward over the Northern and Central Plains through tomorrow night. NAEFS height standardized anomalies are running around -1 standard deviations but this mid/upper trough is progged to become less vigorous as we move through the short term periods.
A persistence type forecast remains with hot and dry conditions to continue for Wednesday as an upper level ridge continues to be stationed over the CWA.
By Wednesday afternoon, showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are expected in eastern Arkansas ahead of a cold front. The following day, the cold front will push through the area and bring widespread showers and storms. High temperatures will be as much as 25 degrees cooler behind the front through the weekend.
223 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 A strong cold front is still on track to knock temperatures back from summer to fall. A broad 500 mb trough will move east from the Plains, spreading some mid and high clouds across our region tonight and Wednesday. Late Wednesday night, a cold front will move into central Missouri from the northwest.
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The axis of the long wave trough over the forecast area this morning had shifted east of the Continental Divide by midday. However, though the trough axis had moved east, a secondary short wave moving down the backside of the main trough continued to provide lift which, when combined with lingering moisture, resulted in scattered showers over the central and northern mountains.
1146 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The trough axis of the midlevel low pressure system is currently tracking over the forecast area. The trough passage has resulted in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms that stretch from the Four Corners into central Colorado. Snow levels have dropped to 9-10 kft so the higher passes in the southern and central mountains may end up with more slushy snow accumulation. Places that had clouds and precip yesterday will be slightly warmer today given more sunshine. This is due to the deep, high amplitude trough over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. and a large, sprawling ridge over the Western U.
At the upper levels, a deep trough was making it's way into the northern Plains. Meanwhile a surface frontal boundary was located over the the High Plains and approaching the Panhandle. By tomorrow, the cold front should move southeastward into northwest Texas and become more east-west oriented. (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Severe weather potential continues Wednesday evening, with strong instability ahead of a cold front.
134 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure prevails through much of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal.
1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Key Points: * Showers and a few thunderstorms possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as cold front moves through the region.
219 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure remains in control for much of the week.
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Another warmer than normal afternoon is unfolding. We'll see calm and cool conditions overnight with a little patchy fog, but probably less than what occurred last night due to slightly warmer temperatures. We may feel this overnight Wednesday night when low temperatures will remain a few degrees warmer than they've been lately.
330 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure prevails through much of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal.
241 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure maintains control for the next 2 days with above normal daytime temperatures.
1248 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 (Today and tonight) One last warm day across the area today as higher mid-level heights shift eastward with the approach of a large scale mid- level trough. This aforementioned trough will be responsible for active weather this afternoon and evening.
115 PM MST Tue Oct 3 2023 Dry and tranquil conditions will prevail the next several days as high pressure builds into the region.
1218 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night ) An upper level ridge will be over the eastern half of the U. today with an upper trough over the Rockies, moving into the Plains tonight. This upper trough moves into the Mississippi River Valley Wednesday night. Strong high pressure at the surface will continue over Arkansas through tonight. A cold front will move into the Plains Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will be cooler behind the front in the lower 70s to near 90 degrees.
Fair weather conditions will continue as we head into Wednesday as high pressure remains in place at the surface and strong upper ridging aloft.
144 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure maintains dry and sunny weather through midweek, with river valley fog developing each night.
Across the rest of the area, it's fairly quiet with temperatures along the urban corridor running 10-15F cooler than yesterday.
Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s central and south.
- Expect cooler weather for the end of the work week into the weekend.
348 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure gradually exits east on Wednesday as a low pressure system enters from the west.
1057 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Temperatures for this afternoon are still expected to be 10-15 degrees above normal with highs in the low 90s. Rain chances return by Wednesday night as a strong cold front approaches the region.
1205 PM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Low pressure slowly exits today with high pressure returning for the rest of the week. Cloud cover will decrease tonight and Wednesday with sunny and warmer afternoons lasting through the weekend. High pressure has begun to take hold across the West, with areas of drier air also migrating into the region, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Clearing skies will promote colder temperatures tonight into Wednesday morning with some patchy freezing fog for Sierra valleys. We're still keeping an eye on the strengthening easterly gradient for tonight into Wednesday, with gusty winds slated for the northern Sierra ridges (gusts 30-40 mph).
(This afternoon through Wednesday) A persistent ridge remains in place over the eastern CONUS where there's a notable lack of rainfall. Flow transitions from easterly in the lower levels to northerly aloft and tropospheric moisture remains far too low for any kind of diurnal convection. The ridge will hardly shift eastward through tomorrow, but will maintain its grasp over the Southeast as soil conditions continue to deteriorate. All along the East Coast, smoke from the Canadian wildfires is rotating southwest around the periphery of the ridge and producing a slight haze over Central Alabama, but otherwise, skies are sunny. High clouds will begin to move in from the west tomorrow afternoon ahead of a trough over the central CONUS.
At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure centered over the Appalachians has maintained a tightened gradient across our forecast area and marine observation platforms along the Reef are recording northeast to east winds generally near 20 knots. The main driver of our sensible weather for the next few forecast periods will be the aforementioned high pressure over the eastern United States.
147 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 A mid/upper trough over the Rockies today is progged to translate eastward over the Northern and Central Plains through tomorrow night. NAEFS height standardized anomalies are running around -1 standard deviations but this mid/upper trough is progged to become less vigorous as we move through the short term periods.
1251 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure maintains dry and sunny weather through midweek, with river valley fog developing each night.
Multi-spectral satellite imagery has shown the rapid dissipation of fog in the eastern valleys this morning, and elevated smoke moving westward across parts of the SE around the southern flank of the broad sub-tropical ridge.
222 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure will hold over the East Coast through mid week.
314 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Short term forecast is beginning to sound a bit like a broken record given persistent upper level ridging resulting in dry, warm conditions for the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. The high level clouds will continue to stream in from the west during the day tomorrow, though it won't stop temperatures from rising to well above climo normals. With slightly stronger SW flow through the low/mid levels, expect afternoon highs to rise into the mid/upper 80s. Wednesday night, an upper trough, centered over the CONUS, will continue pushing a couple of cold fronts, near Missouri, towards the Lower Ohio Valley. This will increase cloud cover during the overnight hours, and with some light WAA on south-southwest winds, temperatures are expected to remain mild in the low to mid 60s.
419 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 A front stalls across Maine tonight, then moves back north in the form of a warm front Wednesday.
123 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure maintains dry and sunny weather through midweek, with river valley fog developing each night.
205 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure will remain over the region through mid-week.
1155 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The main trough axis that has been impacting the local the weather the past couple days will be sweeping across the state today. This favorable NW upslope flow, along with instability from the trough will bring another round of accumulation across the western mountain this morning, shifting across central WY this afternoon. The snow chances will also spread into the Bighorn Range today as the trough moves east, which will also see some snow accumulation. For Wednesday, the trough will be well to the east, with strong northwesterly flow setting up across the state in its wake. For the most part, this brings mostly clear skies and slightly warmer temperatures.
As the high pressure ridge builds inland, skies to the west and along the Cascades will also decrease and showers over the northeast mountains will end this evening.
1208 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Temperatures for this afternoon are still expected to be 10-15 degrees above normal with highs in the low 90s. Rain chances return by Wednesday night as a strong cold front approaches the region.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) The weakening of an upper ridge in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico is resulting increasing deep onshore flow. A deep, long-wave trough currently moving through the Rockies will emerge into Southern Canada and the Northern U. Strong large scale forcing should tap into a rich plume of subtropical moisture resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms along a strong cold front from West Texas northeast into Oklahoma and Kansas.
126 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Most recent upper air analysis shows the upper trough axis right over the WY/SD border this afternoon, with upper ridge over the New England region. Unsettled weather generally continues for this afternoon into tonight as the main trough swings through the region, with showers increasing as the day goes on. Northwest flow aloft develops over the region Wednesday, and we can expect a cooler but sunny day with mostly dry conditions.
This shifts an upper level ridge stretching north over the Lower Mississippi River south and eases upper level subsidence over the region and nearby a bit.
158 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023 *** Radar is Under Mandatory Maintenance *** Trowal/Deformation area of upper low over the eastern zones is showing some weakening this afternoon as cloud top are warming slightly.
Upper ridge will be squeezed between an approaching system from the west, and a developing upper low off the southeastern coast. We luck out and stay dry as the ridge axes both aloft and near surface remain centered overhead. The lower levels of the atmosphere are still dry though, as a relatively dry air mass circulates around underneath the suppressive ridge. Thanks to that air mass, tomorrow afternoon will be another dry session, with afternoon RH values dipping into the low 40s in many locations.
320 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Showers and thunderstorms look to continue through tonight, with cooler temperatures and perhaps another round of showers on Wednesday. Large upper level trough and an associated cold front will continue to push westward through tonight. Ahead of this cold front in the partly cloudy skies could see enough shear and instability for a few thunderstorms until around sunset. Behind the mentioned front will be cooler temperatures with lows in the upper 30s west to upper 40s east. High temperatures will be cooler for Wednesday and generally in the 60s.
358 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 (Issued 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023) Tonight through Wednesday night: Developing low pressure over Srn Canada coupled with high pressure over the eastern CONUS will allow Sly flow to continue tonight, then accelerate and veer SWly Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. HREF currently has an ensemble mean of 1000 j/kg and max of 2000 j/kg SBCAPE over our CWA Wednesday (just ahead of the cold front). Shower and thunderstorm chances continue over the southeastern CWA Wednesday night, as the surface component of the cold front (as seen on dewpoint and wind fields) sweeps across the CWA Wednesday night.
130 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Two more very warm days are ahead before rain and a strong cold front follow later this week.
1232 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Current forecast remains on track as surface ridging continues and hot/dry conditions persist across the region. 12Z sounding supports afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 90s. Deeper mixing will work to lower dewpoint to the low to mid 50s will allow RH values to fall between 25-35%, keeping fire weather danger across the region. Ridging aloft remains in control of the weather across the region yet again today. This, as high pressure at the surface remains wedged into the forecast area from the northeast.
1206 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 A cold front will stall across northern Maine later today into tonight then lift back north in the form of a warm front Wednesday.
922 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure remains in control for much of the week.
1045 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure prevails through much of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal.
A prominent upper-level ridge was positioned over the NERN PAC this afternoon, with northerly midlevel flow present across the West Coast. A cold/dense low-level airmass will spread south beneath the eastern periphery of the ridge tonight and aid in the initiation of offshore-directed winds. Peak gusts to 30 mph are expected across many ridges during Wednesday morning, with locally higher gusts possible in the lee of north-south oriented ridges due to possible mountain wave development.
Regional METAR observations and sky cameras have been showing an improvement in visibilities across the area during the last few hours, and HRRR Near-Surface Smoke model runs are showing that the smoke should continue to improve through Wednesday morning as the ridge to the north shifts to the east. High pressure north of the waters is favoring breezy northeast winds, continuing to run to exercise caution levels through late tonight.
731 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure continues to slide off to our east with return southerly flow becoming more settled over Middle Tennessee. A cold front stretched across the Upper Midwest and Great Plains is edging its way toward the mid state and will begin impacting our weather the day after tomorrow. (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Another warmer than normal afternoon is unfolding. We'll see calm and cool conditions overnight with a little patchy fog, but probably less than what occurred last night due to slightly warmer temperatures. We may feel this overnight Wednesday night when low temperatures will remain a few degrees warmer than they've been lately.
An upper ridge located offshore will build over Western Washington into Wednesday.
Dry and cooler than average temperatures are expected today through Wednesday with light winds.
659 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 A mid/upper trough over the Rockies today is progged to translate eastward over the Northern and Central Plains through tomorrow night. NAEFS height standardized anomalies are running around -1 standard deviations but this mid/upper trough is progged to become less vigorous as we move through the short term periods.
935 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Persistent high pressure will allow dry weather through Wednesday.
942 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure and dry conditions continue tonight. Fair weather conditions will continue as we head into Wednesday as high pressure remains in place at the surface and strong upper ridging aloft.
Otherwise, high pressure maintains dry and mostly clear skies through Wednesday.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s in the east to the low/mid 70s across Northeast Louisiana. A persistence type forecast remains with hot and dry conditions to continue for Wednesday as an upper level ridge continues to be stationed over the CWA.
Updated Aviation Dry and tranquil conditions will prevail the next several days as high pressure builds into the region.
730 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Persistent high pressure will allow dry weather through Wednesday.
The rainfall earlier today moistened up the lower levels, and combined with clearing skies, light winds, and cooling temps, patchy fog is expected in the valleys late tonight through Wednesday morning. A northwest flow aloft will bring dry conditions and mostly clear skies on Wednesday as a high-amplitude ridge resides off the coast. Temperatures will be warmer, but still a few degrees below normal.
616 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Another warmer than normal afternoon is unfolding. We'll see calm and cool conditions overnight with a little patchy fog, but probably less than what occurred last night due to slightly warmer temperatures. We may feel this overnight Wednesday night when low temperatures will remain a few degrees warmer than they've been lately.
Cloud cover will continue to increase tomorrow ahead of a nice Fall cold front, although it will still be a bit warm for one more day.
427 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Most recent upper air analysis shows the upper trough axis right over the WY/SD border this afternoon, with upper ridge over the New England region. Unsettled weather generally continues for this afternoon into tonight as the main trough swings through the region, with showers increasing as the day goes on. Northwest flow aloft develops over the region Wednesday, and we can expect a cooler but sunny day with mostly dry conditions.
(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Strong 100 kt upper level jet streak will shift into the region during the day Wednesday ahead of main upper trough axis to the west.
644 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure will hold over the East Coast through mid week.
633 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday) A persistent ridge remains in place over the eastern CONUS where there's a notable lack of rainfall. Flow transitions from easterly in the lower levels to northerly aloft and tropospheric moisture remains far too low for any kind of diurnal convection. The ridge will hardly shift eastward through tomorrow, but will maintain its grasp over the Southeast as soil conditions continue to deteriorate. All along the East Coast, smoke from the Canadian wildfires is rotating southwest around the periphery of the ridge and producing a slight haze over Central Alabama, but otherwise, skies are sunny. High clouds will begin to move in from the west tomorrow afternoon ahead of a trough over the central CONUS.
938 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure gradually exits east on Wednesday as a low pressure system enters from the west.
Quiet weather is expected this week as high pressure builds over the Southwest.
733 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure gradually exits east on Wednesday as a low pressure system enters from the west.
Short term forecast is beginning to sound a bit like a broken record given persistent upper level ridging resulting in dry, warm conditions for the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. The high level clouds will continue to stream in from the west during the day tomorrow, though it won't stop temperatures from rising to well above climo normals. With slightly stronger SW flow through the low/mid levels, expect afternoon highs to rise into the mid/upper 80s. Wednesday night, an upper trough, centered over the CONUS, will continue pushing a couple of cold fronts, near Missouri, towards the Lower Ohio Valley. This will increase cloud cover during the overnight hours, and with some light WAA on south-southwest winds, temperatures are expected to remain mild in the low to mid 60s.
For this reason, morning lows were kept a few degrees warmer than yesterday, in the mid 50s in rural and elevated areas, and lower 60s in valleys and urban areas.
624 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure prevails through much of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal.
----BMickelson Previous discussion: Trowal/Deformation area of upper low over the eastern zones is showing some weakening this afternoon as cloud top are warming slightly.
840 5M EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure will hold over the East Coast through mid week.
748 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure maintains control for the next 2 days with above normal daytime temperatures.
An exiting trough will allow for mostly dry conditions for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah Wednesday. A ridge will build in from the west into the weekend, with warmer, dry conditions throughout.
Did you notice the hazy skies today? Various observational platforms across the state including those across the Florida Keys have recorded smoke/haze, which originated from wildfires in Canada due to the passage of a cold front. Clear skies will enhance radiational cooling, particularly in the low-lying regions of the Florida Keys. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges, especially during the times of high tide. An area of high pressure over the eastern United States will promote fresh to strong breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the overnight. Breezes will shift to the northwest later in the week as low pressure slides north through the western North Atlantic.
548 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The axis of the long wave trough over the forecast area this morning had shifted east of the Continental Divide by midday. However, though the trough axis had moved east, a secondary short wave moving down the backside of the main trough continued to provide lift which, when combined with lingering moisture, resulted in scattered showers over the central and northern mountains.
645 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure gradually exits east on Wednesday as a low pressure system enters from the west.
803 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure prevails through much of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal.
A strong cold front is still on track to knock temperatures back from summer to fall. A broad 500 mb trough will move east from the Plains, spreading some mid and high clouds across our region tonight and Wednesday. Late Wednesday night, a cold front will move into central Missouri from the northwest.
For today, Much of west central Texas will be in the warm sector ahead of a cold front to the north and a dryline to the west over the Trans Pecos.
Key Message in the near term will be the chance for non severe thunderstorms east and south of the Dodge City area and cooler temperatures. As of 07z Wednesday a cold front was located from south central Kansas into northwest Oklahoma. Today the cold front will briefly stall out across northwest Kansas as some 850mb to 700mb moisture and warm air advection develops north of this boundary across south central Kansas. This will be occurring ahead of another upper level trough which will be approaching western Kansas during the day. The higher probabilities will be along the Oklahoma border today.