Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Latest HRRR continues to show a very brief period of light rain Wednesday morning but freezing rain remaining west of the cwa. Surface temperatures will end up near freezing so if fog does form. Good saturation in the low levels is noted with some lift. At this time surface temperatures look like they will be just above freezing when the potential for precipitation will be on the increase. - Low Risk for impactful snow Thursday into Thursday evening The models are in decent agreement with the low track for Thursday into Thursday evening. This is expected to be IFR for all inland locations, with guidance showing KMKG has a better chance to stay on the low MVFR end.
High pressure will continue to dominate into Thursday continuing the fair dry weather with a gradual moderating trend.
(Today through Thursday) Models and sfc analyses depict broad high pressure expanding across the SE CONUS and across the Fl peninsula in the wake of a weak FROPA. Maybe a tad warmer temps on Thursday as winds continue veer to SE in the afternoon.
A cooler air mass will overspread the region Wednesday, which when coupled with mostly cloudy skies will result in highs ranging from the upper 20s along the SD border to lower/mid 40s near the KS/MO borders. Wednesday night: The powerful midlevel trough currently over CA is forecast to form a mid/upper-level low over KS Wednesday with that feature tracking into MO Wednesday night. Some deterministic model soundings depict only a brief period of saturation within the dendritic-growth zone, and a longer duration of low-level saturation in a temperatures profile supportive of super-cooler water droplets.
This will in turn continue to strengthen low level southwesterly flow over North & Central Texas, resulting in even warmer temperatures for tomorrow. Otherwise, a cold front will move through the region Wednesday evening and overnight with breezy northwest winds continuing into the overnight hours and as the drier/cooler air advects south.
Timing for the highlights still look on track. The initial look at the 00Z NAM12/HRRR and RAP20 models still show much of the urban corridor getting shadowed from the snowfall west of I-25, except along the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide. There is a little snow over the higher mountains yet, that should dissipate by sunset. An upper level ridge begins to build in from the west inducing NW dry subsident flow. Expect mainly minor winter travel impacts with slick roads and some blowing snow in the higher mountain passes.
Because of the cloud cover and southerly winds, expect much warmer temps tonight, with lows ranging from the low to mid 50s north of Interstate 30 to upper 50s across the remainder of the region. By Wednesday afternoon, a closed trough will move out of the Rockies into the Central Plains, dragging an associated cold front into our region Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
This trough will shift east for Thu. with a cold front moving ESE through the state by Thu morning.
It should continue to spread into the lower Yellowstone River valley and east to the North Dakota border then drift southwest a bit before lifting Wednesday morning. Perhaps of greater concern and impact will be another round of freezing fog and/or very low clouds spreading through portions of NE Montana tonight through Wednesday morning, and again over the following few nights. That low cloud deck from the north will signal a dry cold front.
The short term forecast is highlighted by a chance of snow and patchy fog, with cooler temperatures on Wednesday behind a cold front. Can't rule out some freezing rain or drizzle on the back side of precipitation, with soundings advertising a warm nose, but with moisture looking so limited and precipitation chances low anyways, not too concerned with this potential at this point. In the wake of the front, cooler air will filter in, but nothing close to the Arctic air intrusions we've seen so far this season. Cool Arctic high pressure will keep temperatures on the chilly side on Thursday, although the first sign of the expected warmup emerges in the southwest where forecast highs are in the upper 20s.
(Today and tonight) A deepening mid-level trough is expected to move across the southern Rockies later this morning. A strong mid-level jet on the southern periphery of the aforementioned trough will move across much of the Southern Plains by the afternoon.
Forecast soundings would still suggest perhaps a brief period of light freezing rain before we should wetbulb into the snow p-type.
Light drizzle and patchy fog will occur overnight with a warm front. A cold front will traverse the area tomorrow night into Thursday morning.
A band of showers will continue to push to the northeast tonight as an upper trough along the CA coast pushes inland. Showers will transition northeastward this evening as an upper trough along the CA coast advances inland. The northern portion of the trough will stall across SE Oregon and w-central Idaho keeping a chance of snow showers from Baker County into the west-central ID and Boise mountains overnight. Clearing towards morning could allow for another round of fog formation, otherwise Wednesday will bring a drying trend as an upper ridge begins to build over the Intermountain NW. A chance of light precipitation returns Wednesday night as a warm front lifts through the region. The upper ridge remains in place through Thursday night, keeping the heavier precipitation along the Pac NW coast.
121 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Near-record temperatures today in the 70s and 80s thanks to upper ridging and strong, downsloping westerly winds. Wednesday will be cooler than today, but still well above normal for this time of year in the 60s across the west and 70s in the east. A cold front on the heels of this upper low will arrive overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, with overnight lows falling below freezing for parts of Southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain.
a negatively tilted upper level trough currently approaching the Continental Divide in Colorado early this morning is forecast to intensify late this morning with a closed 500mb low embedded within the trough axis located in southeast Colorado around 18z. Rain will quickly transition to snow as colder air moves in behind the low. The highest amounts are likely to be along and west of Kansas Highway 27 and along and north of Interstate 70. a high amplitude upper ridge develops west of the Continental Divide, in between low pressure well off the west coast and over the Great Lakes area.
628 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 High pressure over the Southeast States will move offshore Wednesday into Thu. A strong cold front accompanied with scattered showers and possibly a rumble of thunder will push across the area Thu night into Fri. Cold high pressure will follow and build in for the upcoming weekend. Highs near 70 into the lower 70s Thursday as WAA increases ahead of a cold front.
Early this morning, high clouds have streamed in from the southwest out ahead of a negatively-tilted upper trough over the Four Corners. The highest winds will be across the Big Country and western Concho Valley where the strongest pressure gradient will be. The resulting downslope flow will combine with a warm airmass (850mb temps of 17-18 C) to push high temperatures into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. A cooler airmass will be advected into west Texas late tonight, which will help low temperatures fall into the low to mid 40s.
It will shift east and become centered over the lower Ohio Valley by midday Thursday. The low will deepen as it departs our region to the northeast through Thursday night. Soundings indicate healthy mid level lapse rates around 7 to 8C and freezing levels that may dip to around 9kft.
Temps are generally within a couple of degrees of freezing as of 3:30am this morning with fog developing across southeastern South Dakota and northern Iowa. Primary forecast concern is the cooler air and precipitation expected to arrive over the next 24 hours. CAA in NE Nebraska will limit highs there to only a few degrees warmer than current readings. Precipitation appears with the arrival of an upper-level trof passing to our south tonight. The low-levels will be saturated and will likely produce drizzle. Most of the drizzle would be of the freezing variety, but temps in far southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa will remain above freezing through part of the evening before slipping below 32F. As the trof continues east, it deepens over the eastern CONUS and a ridge develops over the Rockies.
237 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2023 Dense freezing fog has overspread a large portion of NE Montana overnight as low level moisture has become trapped under a low level inversion. Upper ridge builds into the area starting on Thursday.
259 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2023 The cold front under the leading edge of this passing trough went through late last evening with wind gusts 45 to 55 mph in eastern Utah along with some isolated lightning. Then we should start a more prolonged break from the precipitation on Thursday as a stronger ridge builds in to end out the week.
Patchy freezing fog is also expected in some valley locations this morning, which may result in reduced visibilities through 8am. A few lingering snow flurries early this morning will taper off by around sunrise as weak high pressure begins to build in from the west. Fresh snowpack across most of northern and central NV today, in combination with weak northwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching ridge axis will result in slightly cooler afternoon high temperatures today.
314 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Freezing rain along and south of I-94 this morning making for a tricky morning commute. A wintry mix trending light snow north of the freezing rain. The main topic this morning is the ongoing precipitation event with freezing rain, a wintry mix, and light snow all ongoing across the MPX CWA. This altogether means we are still likely seeing freezing drizzle or light freezing rain for much of the area, with snow more likely as you head north of I-94 in western WI and north of the metro.
Dry, breezy, and cooler conditions are expected Thursday with high temperatures ranging from around the mid to upper 60s in the northern half of the area to the low to mid 70s in the southern half.
A cloudy and warm day is expected after a warm front moves through the region by sunrise. A cold front will move across Arkansas tonight and across the remainder of the Mid-South Thursday morning.
Hi-res guidance highlight a weak upper ridge moving over the region with continuing S/SW return flow. Best chances for isolated thunderstorms should be after midnight as the cold front continues to push east towards the lower MS Valley. Overnight lows should remain pretty warm before the cold front moves through.
Temperatures today will remain well above normal and have once again gone above blended guidance especially across eastern half of the area where notable thermal ridge will remain in place. Areas to the west of US 75 will see the lowest humidity values this afternoon but winds will be more marginal there with cooler air aloft moving in sooner thus limiting mixing.
As this system approaches, an area of low pressure will strengthen across eastern Colorado this morning then slide across southern Kansas this afternoon into this evening. Southerly winds will be felt ahead of this low, curling to the west across far western Kansas late this morning into this afternoon.
Per the warmer drier flow, rain chances should remain limited through the afternoon. More than a couple of records could be reached or broken if this forecast does verify - GLS 75 (2005,2017) IAH 81 (1995) HOU 80 (2005, 2017, 2018) CLL 81 (1911, 1971) The passage of a progressive/rather well-defined mid to upper low across the Central Plains will help to drag a cold front into and through the CWA tonight. Cooler and drier air filtering into the region on Thur will keep temper- atures in the 60s during the day.
632 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 (Today through Thursday) Models and sfc analyses depict broad high pressure expanding across the SE CONUS and across the Fl peninsula in the wake of a weak FROPA. Maybe a tad warmer temps on Thursday as winds continue veer to SE in the afternoon.
Snow levels will also begin to gradually rise through the day, and will likely be at or above the higher pass levels later tonight. 4-8 inches of additional snowfall accumulation is expected at the higher pass levels with up to a foot over the peaks. The next incoming trough will take its time arriving as it digs offshore. Precipitation will retreat north and westward tonight and Thursday as the warm front lifts up into far northern California.
847 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 High pressure ridge will be overhead this morning, then shift more to the east southeast this afternoon. As the ridge moves more to the southeast, clouds will begin to move into area from the northwest ahead of approaching system. Otherwise, it will be a dry day with highs away from the coast climbing into the lower 70s.
322 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2023 An upper level trough will move across the area today with an upper level low intensifying over east central CO. This low will then gradually move eastward into western KS by early this evening. Meanwhile, as the upper level low intensifies, there is some potential for heavier snow to develop on the backside of this low, later this morning thru the aftn hours, across portions of the plains. By tonight, the upper level low will move eastward into centrl KS with snow gradual ending over the plains by early evening.
Freezing fog and low stratus continues across portions of the Hi- Line primarily in Hill and Northern Blaine through the morning. The movement of the upper-level trough associated with the Pacific storms from the west will continue eastward across the Utah-Colorado border this morning. This trough will be responsible for the development of light snow across the Montana-Idaho border. Further north, dry conditions continue to prevail across Central and North-central Montana where calm to light winds persist, opening up the doorway for the development of freezing fog and low stratus along the Hi-Line. Thereafter, upper-level ridging quickly builds and amplifies over much of western CONUS and remains quasi-stationary over the Rockies, with a gradual warming through the remainder of the week.
Cooler temperatures are expected this afternoon in the wake of a weak weather system.
With temperatures just below freezing for inland areas, a light glaze is still a concern for the morning commute. However, weak vorticity advection swinging through WI on the back side of this upper low could still help to squeeze out some flurries.
1000 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 High pressure over the Southeast States will move offshore Wednesday into Thu. A strong cold front accompanied with scattered showers and possibly a rumble of thunder will push across the area Thu night into Fri. Cold high pressure will follow and build in for the upcoming weekend. Highs near 70 into the lower 70s Thursday as WAA increases ahead of a cold front.
425 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 (Today and tonight) A deepening mid-level trough is expected to move across the southern Rockies later this morning. A strong mid-level jet on the southern periphery of the aforementioned trough will move across much of the Southern Plains by the afternoon.
641 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 Deepening low pressure will bring the likelihood for showers today, followed by widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday.
Per this warmer drier flow, rain chances should remain limited through the afternoon. More than a couple of records could be reached or broken if this forecast does verify - GLS 75 (2005,2017) IAH 81 (1995) HOU 80 (2005, 2017, 2018) CLL 81 (1911, 1971) The passage of a progressive and rather well-defined mid/upper low across the Central Plains will help to drag a cold front into and through the CWA tonight. Cooler and drier air filtering into the region on Thurs will keep temper- atures in the 60s during the day.
It is warmer than the RAP and HRRR models but cooler than the guidance blend for highs today. A large upper level low swirling across the north Pacific, well west and south of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest, will migrate east and open up as it approaches the West Coast later this week.
and a cold front moves ESE into AR. Much cooler and drier air will move into the state on Thu behind this cold front. with some gusts over 30 mph on Thu ushering in this cooler/drier air. Lows Thu night will drop down into the low 20s to low 30s.
518 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 (Issued 518 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023) There is freezing rain falling this morning. With temperatures just below freezing for inland areas, a light glaze is still a concern for the morning commute. However, weak vorticity advection swinging through WI on the back side of this upper low could still help to squeeze out some flurries.
222 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2023 Freezing fog and low stratus continues across portions of the Hi- Line primarily in Hill and Northern Blaine through the morning. The movement of the upper-level trough associated with the Pacific storms from the west will continue eastward across the Utah-Colorado border this morning. This trough will be responsible for the development of light snow across the Montana-Idaho border. Further north, dry conditions continue to prevail across Central and North-central Montana where calm to light winds persist, opening up the doorway for the development of freezing fog and low stratus along the Hi-Line. Thereafter, upper-level ridging quickly builds and amplifies over much of western CONUS and remains quasi-stationary over the Rockies, with a gradual warming through the remainder of the week.
Low pressure system is moving northeastward into the Upper Snake Highlands this morning. The center of the low is probably about 100 miles further north than thought yesterday. Precip type is finally not a problem as cold air move into the upper Snake Plain as the low passes through. Ridge begins to amplify over the region on Thursday meaning dry weather for most of us. There is still some moisture working up the western side of the ridge and the models are indicating that some light snow is possible across the Stanley region.
3) Trending cooler and windier for Thursday. A rigorous negatively-tilted mid/upper trough continues to translate eastward over the Rockies this morning and will be the primary driver of precipitation chances for tonight into early Thursday. While much of the area will continue to experience mild temperatures today, cooler air will begin to filter into portions of central Kansas today keeping afternoon temperatures in the 40s for that part of the state. Air temps and dewpoints should quickly wet-bulb down to near the freezing mark which will allow for rain to transition to snow. While a warm nose exists as a result of mid-level WAA, the column should remain below freezing limiting the precip types to rain and/or snow.
Today the persistent ridge over the northern Rockies builds back up stronger again while another trough deepens off the west coast. The building ridge over the area is maintaining very stable conditions on top of a moist surface boundary layer. Meanwhile, the trough digging off the West Coast is pumping moisture and warmer air into the region. Even though we have a strong ridge over the region, some of the moisture will fall as rain or snow in areas west of the ridge axis.
Mean layer ridge will gradually shift eastward and across the western Atlantic over the next 24 to 48 hours. Meanwhile, a strong upper level low is currently moving across the Intermountain West region and over the Rockies. This low will trek northeast into the Great Lakes region with a trailing cold front that will extend southward into the northwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday morning.
446 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2023 The cold front under the leading edge of this passing trough went through late last evening with wind gusts 45 to 55 mph in eastern Utah along with some isolated lightning. Then we should start a more prolonged break from the precipitation on Thursday as a stronger ridge builds in to end out the week.
534 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 (Today through Thursday) Key Messages: - Fog again this morning - Near record temperatures today - Cold front on Thursday Patchy to areas of fog are expected to develop for this morning, especially along and east of 281. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s for most of South Texas and sites across the western portions of the area could even see 90 degrees. Low temperatures will remain in the 50s and 60s tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will reach our northern borders early Thursday morning and move offshore around 18Z. Temperatures behind the front will be cooler with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
630 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Freezing rain along and south of I-94 this morning making for a tricky morning commute. A wintry mix trending light snow north of the freezing rain. The main topic this morning is the ongoing precipitation event with freezing rain, a wintry mix, and light snow all ongoing across the MPX CWA. This altogether means we are still likely seeing freezing drizzle or light freezing rain for much of the area, with snow more likely as you head north of I-94 in western WI and north of the metro.
An upper level trough will move across the area today with an upper level low intensifying over east central CO. This low will then gradually move eastward into western KS by early this evening. Meanwhile, as the upper level low intensifies, there is some potential for heavier snow to develop on the backside of this low, later this morning thru the aftn hours, across portions of the plains. By tonight, the upper level low will move eastward into centrl KS with snow gradual ending over the plains by early evening.
550 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 A cloudy and warm day is expected after a warm front moves through the region by sunrise. A cold front will move across Arkansas tonight and across the remainder of the Mid-South Thursday morning.
717 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 High pressure will continue to dominate into Thursday continuing the fair dry weather with a gradual moderating trend.
Dew points have dropped to the lower 40s in the backyard here on White Street as incredibly dry air aloft sampled by the 12z sounding at KEY has mixed down with daytime heating to the surface. Due to cold advection and continued back north to northeast flow, temperatures only managed to make it to the lower 70s at most island communites. A surface reflection of this will be a strong cold front barreling through the eastern third of the United States late this week and for the weekend. The only sensible change this forecast iteration was a slight delay in the arrival of the aforementioned cold front into the Florida Keys. As often happens, the relatively warm coastal waters and ample solar insolation acts to hinder afternoon cold frontal passes.
KEY MESSAGES: - Freezing rain along and south of I-94 this morning making for a tricky morning commute. A wintry mix trending light snow north of the freezing rain. The main topic this morning is the ongoing precipitation event with freezing rain, a wintry mix, and light snow all ongoing across the MPX CWA. This altogether means we are still likely seeing freezing drizzle or light freezing rain for much of the area, with snow more likely as you head north of I-94 in western WI and north of the metro.
219 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 Key Messages: - Seasonal temperatures for the rest of the week with highs in the 20s and 30s--warmer weather for the weekend.
1118 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 A cloudy and warm day is expected after a warm front moves through the region by sunrise. A cold front will move across Arkansas tonight and across the remainder of the Mid-South Thursday morning.
242 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 Light rain is probable overnight into early Thursday morning with light snow or freezing rain potentially resulting in a few slick spots at higher elevations.