Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, forecast is on track with this mornings mid level clouds decreasing this afternoon as upper level ridging builds in from the west. /ISSUED 202 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023/ Upper-level troughing exits the Treasure State eastward into the Dakotas. These cooler temperatures will only be short- lived, and act as a poorly timed tease for those wanting fall-like temperatures. As the aforementioned upper-level trough exits, another upper-level ridge moves in from the Pacific in its wake, leading to afternoon temperatures increasing yet again. In many locations, 10 degrees warmer than seasonal averages through Friday, warming up even more through the weekend. Relative humidity values, coincidentally, fall into the lower teens at the same time.
Water vapor imagery is depicting broad anticylonic motion across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula associated with a weak area of high pressure. Introduced a split in the zone forecasts earlier this morning, with higher rain chances expected in the vicinity of the Upper Keys than the Lower and Middle Keys. From synopsis, light to gentle northerly breezes will prevail through the end of this week due to Hurricane Lee passing east of the Bahamas and a building area of high pressure across the Southeast.
Otherwise, continued cool conditions are expected for the FA with highs primarily in the lower to mid 70s. For Friday, the main synoptic low/trof moves across the northern/central plains during the day.
There are hints that coverage may increase through the overnight period with some models suggesting a weak cold front will impact a portion of the area.
This was evident this mrng, with sfc dewpoint readings in the low to mid 50s acrs northern and central AR, with 60s common in the south. High temps today wl range fm the mid 70s to mid 80s, with readings Fri a few degrees warmer.
530 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Relatively warm today with a cold front passage bringing the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms.
Surface obs continued to show high pressure ridging into eastern and central KS. With clouds likely to be increasing from west to east on Friday, have a bit more of a gradient to the highs with upper 70s west to the lower 80s east.
However, the higher resolution short-res guidance is generally favoring East Texas south of Interstate 20, so this is where our highest PoPs will be located.
1058 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Drier air will move in today behind a cold front with isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly south of I-20.
The early morning temps were very comfortable in the low to mid 70's with sunny skies being reported in the latest surface observations and visible satellite imagery. This drier air will likely limit shower and storm coverage once again this afternoon with the highest chances over the interior and SW Florida. High pressure located in the central Gulf of Mexico ridges eastward producing light NNW winds around 5-10 knots through early Friday. Interaction between this front and high pressure to the north will produce increasing winds around 10-15 knots over the weekend.
Nonetheless, this favorable warming direction combined with the abundant sunshine should foster warmer highs closer to normal.
1102 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2023 High pressure will continue to bring dry weather with temperatures warming to above normal values for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
206 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Much of the central portion of the CONUS remains beneath a weak upper ridge, bracketed by upper lows over southern Saskatchewan and Quebec. The Mid-Mississippi Valley will remain under the influence of the high through much of tomorrow, keeping light north/east winds in place. Ample sun tomorrow should allow for the airmass to further moderate, likely pushing temperatures slightly warmer that what we're seeing today.
354 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Summary: A cold front will bring showers and a few rumbles of thunder tonight into Friday morning with seasonal temperatures for the weekend. Low pressure was centered to the north of Winnipeg this afternoon with a cold front trailing into eastern North Dakota and central South Dakota. A warm front extended from a triple point near Grand Forks into western and southern Minnesota. A line of showers was observed ahead of the cold front stretching from the International Falls area into the Big Stone Lake area of western Minnesota. An upper low will linger across northwestern Ontario into the weekend with cyclonic flow over the Northland.
South-southwest winds and modest thermal ridge ahead of the front will allow for a warmer day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Highs in the lower 70s more likely where clouds/showers persist into the afternoon, with mid-upper 70s more widespread to the northwest where clearing is expected. Broad upper trough lingers over MN/IA into the first half of the weekend, perhaps partially slowed by Hurricane Lee sliding north off the New England coast.
RW (Today through Friday) The apex of the upper level trough that brought the current frontal boundary stalled across the CWA is currently east of the Ohio River Valley and quickly racing eastward. Combo of increased cloudiness, convection and slightly cooler air to the north should keep daytime highs closer to climo norm. As Friday rolls around, that stalled boundary will be less discernible and could actually be a little upper level ridging taking place overhead.
This will support mainly clear skies overnight which will drop nighttime lows into the low 50s in urban Detroit and 40s elsewhere.
1255 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Overall, minimal aviation weather concerns today as high pressure drifts directly over SE MI. With the high center overhead, winds hold light and generally variable through the TAF period. Deep layer subsidence is ongoing this morning as the amplified upper trough departs to the east, leading to clear skies for almost the entire Lower Peninsula. 850mb temps initially around 5C will trend a few degrees higher by day's end, primarily via diabatic heating as temperature advection will be weak with high pressure building in. Southwest return flow brings increasing 1000-500mb thicknesses and allows for high temps to rebound a few degrees into the lower 70s under mainly sunny skies. Meanwhile, a closed upper low will be tracking from Manitoba in western Ontario, forcing an elongated cold front across the upper Midwest.
Overnight lows are forecast in the low to middle 50s. While do not think airmass will be dry enough to pose a frost/freeze risk, am leaning towards the cooler side of the guidance as conditions seem pretty optimal for the coolest night of the fall so far. Otherwise the rest of the period will be dominated by building H5 ridge axis leading to dry and warming conditions, with highs in the upper 80s returning by the start of the week.
Additionally, cloud cover is much thinner across northern portions of the CWA, which may allow temps to rise a degree or two warmer than previously forecast.
101 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Relatively warm today with a cold front passage bringing the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms.
1259 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2023 High pressure will continue to bring warm and dry conditions through Friday.
A trof aloft evident in water vapor imagery is moving through eastern MT early this morning. Meanwhile, a pre-frontal trof over western SD will continue to move east today, with a cold front eventually catching up to the sfc trof. QPF amount probs suggest mainly light amounts of rain today, with the highest probs for a quarter inch or so of rain existing over the far eastern CWA this afternoon and evening, likely due to the juxtaposition of lift from the frontal zone and afternoon instability resulting from diabatic heating. A bit cooler airmass comes in for Friday, but deeper mixing (upwards of sfc-H7) may offset the slight decrease in airmass temperatures.
However, a weak cold front is moving through the Big Country with more clouds and temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s. This differential heating aiding in destabilization this afternoon and starting to see a few storms develop in the warmer more unstable sector ahead of the front. Will carry the highest POPs mainly north of I-20. Highs on Friday may be a few degrees cooler than today, lower 80s across the Big Country to near 90 along I-10.
Current satellite shows the band of showers associated with the frontogenetical forcing from the cold front, and then clearing behind it. For the rest of today, Showers will continue to trek east associated with the cold front.
1230 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Clear and dry under high pressure for the remainder of the work week.
154 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Satellite imagery showed a weak trough moving into the Dakotas while high pressure and mostly clear skies dominated to our west over the Inter-mountain Rockies and NW Pacific coast.
Lows will range from the lower 60s across the northwest with fewer clouds to near 70 in the far southeast. Warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 80s can be expected across the west Friday afternoon as more sunshine returns, while lingering clouds and scattered showers and storms will keep highs in the east relatively mild.
(This afternoon through Friday Night) It's another fantastic day of low humidity (RH values are around ~30%), temperatures are in the high 70s, there's a nice northerly breeze, and a field of altocumulus and cirrus clouds paint the sky. Surface analysis shows a high pressure center over Missouri and we are certainly feeling the effects of that today. Friday looks more of the same as today with perhaps a bit less cloud cover as high pressure shifts closer to Middle Tennessee.
(Tonight through Friday night) A persistent mid-level ridge will remain anchored across northern Mexico through the short term, sustaining near record to record high temperatures (above the century mark away from the coast) today and Friday.
High pressure will be north of the area through Tonight, as northward moving Hurricane Lee tracks well to the northeast of the region. A trough will lay west to east across NE FL through Tonight. This convection will be slow to dissipate Tonight with trough in place, but a decrease in coverage is anticipated due to loss of diurnal heating. Lows Tonight range from the lower 70s inland, to the mid 70s coast.
1248 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 The upper level trough will push through the remainder of the CWA to the east and southeast this afternoon with the surface boundary extending out of the area. An isolated stronger storm is possible east of southeast of Rock Springs late in the afternoon, as depicted by some of the higher resolution short term models. Otherwise, expect a bit cooler than average temperatures this afternoon and overnight into Friday. An upper level ridge will build strongly in from the south with increasing convergence aloft. A pattern change is expected by mid week as a deep trough pushes in from western Canada that will likely bring much colder temperatures and some higher elevation snow.
240 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Canadian high pressure will build into the region from the Great Lakes region through the weekend. The afternoon surface analysis continues to show high pressure over the Great Lakes. These wind gusts should weaken as we get into the evening hours as the surface somewhat decouples from the low-level winds. Temperatures are currently in the upper 70s to near 80 in the N and W to the low to mid 80s in the SE. Other than some stirring of the wind from the NE, radiational cooling should favor lows in the low to middle 50s in outlying areas and upper 50s to near 60 in urban centers. Northerly flow over the region between Lee moving into the northern Atlantic and high pressure over the Great Lakes will gradually weaken as the high slips south.
Clouds are expected to thin out, with lows dipping into the upper 50s over southern middle Tennessee and into the lower to mid 60s for northern Alabama.
149 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Clear and dry under high pressure for the remainder of the work week.
Our forecast currently calls for slightly cooler max temps today for lakeshore counties (mid to upper 60s) compared to inland areas (low to mid 70s). The quiet wx should persist through Friday underneath the high pressure system. Highs will be right around normal for mid September, with cooler temps near Lake Michigan due to an onshore breeze and closer to the high. Southerly winds and subtle warm air advection will begin over western WI Thursday afternoon and persist through Friday as a low pressure trough approaches from the Northern Plains.
Cool Pacific trough axis passed through our CWA last night and was already east of us this morning.
Weak upper ridging remains east of Florida allowing for a quasi- zonal upper level pattern to continue over the Florida peninsula. Farther to the north, a closed upper low and associated troughing will move northeast through Quebec through the end of the week. This front will linger over northern Florida through the week with minor fluctuations north and south as areas of weak low pressure move eastward along this front.
239 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Key Messages: -A slow moving cold front will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms tonight.
1130 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Key Messages: - A pre-frontal trough will move southeast through the area on Friday.
209 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Dry high pressure bringing fall-like weather continues into the start of the weekend.
The upper level trough associated with this frontal system is be rather slow to push out of the region.
151 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 High pressure building across the Northern Rockies and Montana will bring dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures through the upcoming weekend.
330 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 High pressure will bring mostly clear, dry and pleasant weather tonight through the upcoming weekend.
139 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Drier air will move in today behind a cold front with isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly south of I-20.
125 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 High pressure will bring fair weather conditions through Friday with lows in the mid to upper 40s and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Highs Friday range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
The latest water vapor imagery shows dry westerly flow across the immediate area, while the axis of a longwave trough centered over the Great Basin is the source for more robust convection currently observed over the Mogollon Rim. The biggest trend of note going through today and tomorrow, is the lowering moisture levels across the region. Relative humidities have fallen into the 15-20% range for a large portion of the lower deserts as drier air mixes to the surface this afternoon. Limited shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across the higher terrain areas due to the decreasing moisture profiles, as the latest HREF depicts low chances (~10%) of any robust convection across higher terrain areas mainly in southern Gila County going through this afternoon and into this evening.
1033 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 The trough is continuing to drop slowly southward across the state this morning, and continues to bring showers mainly east of the divide. The trough has also brought a weak cold front southward through the state, with modest north winds in its wake for most areas. This afternoon, the ample moisture in place will also trigger some thunderstorms activity along the higher elevations of the Wind River range and the Bighorns. All this activity will be decreasing after sunset with loss of daytime heating, and should be completely done by midnight as the trough exits the region. Ridging starts to build back into the region Friday and into the upcoming weekend.
(This evening through Friday night) Upper ridging centered over the Pacific Coast this afternoon, with troughing over the northern Rockies and New England. Away from convection, temperatures generally warmed into the upper 80s to lower 90s with dew points in the lower and middle 70s. High temperatures on Friday will be driven by when/where convection develops, with areas not seeing convection reaching the lower 90s.
This heating along with a low-level theta-e ridge axis extending from eastern New Mexico to the South Plains has already resulted in a deepening CU field and may allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop this evening. Tonight, the entrance region of the upper level jet will move across the FA and will work in conjunction with the warmer surface temperatures and moist upslope surface flow to initiate thunderstorms over eastern New Mexico which are expected to move across most of the FA through early Friday morning.
Ample moisture and lift will also be found in the lower levels of the atmosphere leading to mostly cloudy skies through tomorrow night.
357 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 (Issued 358 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023) Tonight and Friday: The quiet wx should persist through Friday underneath the high pressure system. Clouds begin to approach from the NW Friday afternoon, associated with a frontal boundary extending SW from a low pressure in Ontario. Sheppard (Issued 358 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023) Friday night through Thursday: A frontal boundary extending SW from a low pressure crossing Ontario will provide a 35% chance of rain Friday night.
This will pull somewhat warmer temperatures into the DVN forecast area. Lows tonight in the upper 40s east to the lower 50s west.
- Dry and comfortable this weekend as high pressure builds over the region. On Friday, forecast guidance shows a small chance for storms to develop again along the weak cold front, so did expand the rain chances to the west during the afternoon before the system moves out entirely Friday night.
Tonight, we can expect another night of cool, calm conditions with lows dropping into the lower 50s in and around the city and into the upper 40s across outlying areas. Tomorrow will be another pleasant day for us and should even be a few degrees warmer. Mild southerly flow in anticipation of an impending cold front will pull highs up into the middle to upper 70s.
125 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 High pressure will be the dominant weather feature through Friday night with dry, mild weather the rule.
In addition to any precipitation chances, a trailing cold frontal boundary continues bringing a narrow corridor of visibility reducing near-surface smoke from the northwest to the southeast. Should winds go calm and skies fully clear out, the possibility of even cooler temperatures and frost development is greater than zero in some locations.
115 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 A slow moving cold front will move offshore this morning.
236 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 A cold front is draped northeast to southwest from Roberts to Lyman counties this afternoon. Dry conditions are forecast for Friday with high pressure settling in Friday night.
Expect temps will be a touch warmer than last night, mostly in the upper 50s to even the low 60s.
Weak troughing is vacating the area this afternoon and continues to shift to the south and east. High pressure is replacing the troughing and raising heights in the CWA, which is accounting for warmer temperatures today. The upper level ridge will continue to move overhead tomorrow and translate eastward. A closed low is forecasted to develop off the CA coastline tomorrow and move eastward. Movement of the closed low will bring the return of afternoon/evening showers/t-storms over the mountains, with elevated instability and better moisture profiles. The NBM is showing PoP chances (5-20%) on Sat and Sun in the Sierra as the the low moves eastward. Onshore flow associated with the closed low will help bring cool temperatures to near normal for the Central Sac Valley and Delta areas.
1243 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 (Today through Friday) The persistent mid-level ridge remains anchored across northern Mexico through the short term, keeping well above normal temperatures in place today and Friday.
208 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 While it's been mostly cloudy over the higher terrain, the cloudiness hasn't progressed onto the Urban Corridor or eastern plains. This has allowed temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 70s. Water vapor satellite imagery showing a broad trough over Wyoming and Utah with a good circulation over southwest Wyoming. For Friday, the upper level trough will be over Colorado, but will be slowly weakening. The upper trough will move east the state Friday night with mostly dry conditions expected across the forecast area.
118 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Upper low spins over Saskatchewan, dragging its trough across the northern plains. Under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures this afternoon are only in the 60s most places; south central SD (ahead of the cold front) has reached the lower 80s. Dry weather and a warming trend begin Friday, as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS.
Tonight and Friday Mostly clear skies and light winds are expected tonight as southerly winds and warm air advection keep temperatures several degrees warmer than this morning. Increasing clouds along with an increased chance for showers will occur on Friday as a cold front approaches the area from the west. Highs on Friday are expected to range from the middle to upper 60s across north- central Wisconsin, with upper 70s across the Fox Valley and portions of central Wisconsin given the later arrival of the cold front, clouds, and precipitation.
224 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 A slow moving cold front will move offshore this morning.
Key Messages: - Rain chances begin tonight as a slow moving cold front approaches the area. On the synoptic scale, an upper level low is spinning over southern Canada and the attendant cold front is slowly moving to the east. Outside of the rain potential, tomorrow will be a cooler day with the frontal passage and cloud cover. High temperatures will range from the low 70s to the low 80s.
742 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Satellite imagery shows dry NW flow over the region, far-removed from troffing over the central and southern Rockies, and downstream from a strong ridge over the PacNW. JKL Satellite imagery showed a weak trough moving into the Dakotas while high pressure and mostly clear skies dominated to our west over the Inter-mountain Rockies and NW Pacific coast.
706 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 (This evening through Friday night) Upper ridging centered over the Pacific Coast this afternoon, with troughing over the northern Rockies and New England. Away from convection, temperatures generally warmed into the upper 80s to lower 90s with dew points in the lower and middle 70s. High temperatures on Friday will be driven by when/where convection develops, with areas not seeing convection reaching the lower 90s.
1012 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 High pressure will bring mostly clear, dry and pleasant weather overnight through the upcoming weekend.
626 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Summary: A cold front will bring showers and a few rumbles of thunder tonight into Friday morning with seasonal temperatures for the weekend. Low pressure was centered to the north of Winnipeg this afternoon with a cold front trailing into eastern North Dakota and central South Dakota. A warm front extended from a triple point near Grand Forks into western and southern Minnesota. A line of showers was observed ahead of the cold front stretching from the International Falls area into the Big Stone Lake area of western Minnesota. An upper low will linger across northwestern Ontario into the weekend with cyclonic flow over the Northland.
501 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Aviation Section Updated High pressure building across the Northern Rockies and Montana will bring dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures through the upcoming weekend.
The low humidities and gusty northeast winds last night has brought increased fire activity which doubled the size of the Anvil fire. Lighter winds farther south in western Siskiyou county have brought increased fire behavior on the ridges, but not as much as the Anvil fire. The upper ridge moves directly over the region Friday, with a slight increase in the well above normal temperatures of today. The path of the upper low is indicating farther south and farther offshore, but moisture is still indicated to start being advected into our area starting Friday.