Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
938 PM PDT Tue Jun 20 2023 A deep and cold upper low will linger over the region through midweek, keeping colder than average temperatures and a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. Tonight through Thursday night: A good portion of the unseasonably cold upper level will continue to lift to the north/northeast however a general trof will remain in place over Eastern Washington and North Idaho. The northerly flow on the far western edge of the trof may allow for some smoke from fires in Northern British Columbia and Northern Alberta to flow southward and possibly make an appearance aloft over Eastern Washington and North Idaho in the form of a faint haze in some spots however confidence is low so it has not been added to the forecast grids.
1132 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Deep layer high pressure will continue to bring clear skies across the region tonight. High pressure just off the New England coast will continue to extend ridging back toward upper MI. No big change in the pattern foreseen through at least Thursday with persistent ridging remaining in control for the most part. Attention will then turn to the eventual movement of the large cutoff upper low currently centered across the Tennessee Valley for late week.
The easterly flow will focus the highest daytime temperatures near and west of US 131.
1050 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 With a blocking upper pattern persisting for a few more days, rain chances will be few and far between through late week. The highest temperatures will be near and west of I-55 the next few days, with highs frequently reaching the lower 90s, but more widespread 90s are expected this weekend. Bumgardner Much of this part of the forecast will continue to be dominated by the rex block pattern, though the upper level high portion should begin sliding off to the east on Thursday.
1215 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The CWA will continue to remain under the influence of the quasi- stationary upper level ridge during the period.
Cooler than normal temperatures and occasional breezy periods will last through the week.
1022 PM PDT Tue Jun 20 2023 A deep and cold upper low will linger over the region through midweek, keeping colder than average temperatures and a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. Tonight through Thursday night: A good portion of the unseasonably cold upper level will continue to lift to the north/northeast however a general trof will remain in place over Eastern Washington and North Idaho. The northerly flow on the far western edge of the trof may allow for some smoke from fires in Northern British Columbia and Northern Alberta to flow southward and possibly make an appearance aloft over Eastern Washington and North Idaho in the form of a faint haze in some spots however confidence is low so it has not been added to the forecast grids.
Rua (Tonight through Thursday night) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the sfc boundary along the nern edge of the forecast area with high pressure ridging wwd across the wrn Gulf Coast. Water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper-level cutoff low spinning over the Blue Ridge Mountains with a disturbance rotating around it crossing the region at this time. Meanwhile, ridging aloft has been shoved wwd to wrn TX and up the Plains to the wrn Great Lakes. Thursday looks like something of a repeat of tomorrow as the cutoff low meanders around and yet another disturbance rotates around it, impacting the region while the ridge retrogrades slightly farther wwd.
(Today) An upper level low continues to meander over the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians, while a surface boundary lingers near the Gulf coast. As for temperatures, high coverage of showers/storms will keep highs at bay - in the lower to mid 80s in the west and mid to upper 70s in the east.
1229 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Summary: The Northland remains under the influence of a blocking pattern with upper level riding overhead suppressing rain chances and allowing for above normal temperatures. A cold front will enter from the west late Thursday providing some rain and thunderstorms. Quiet weather this afternoon and tomorrow as upper level ridging holds over the region. With deep troughing over the Great Basin and a vertically stacked low over the Tennessee Valley the Northland will remain under the oppressive omega block shunting weather off to our west. As the low over the Tennessee Valley shifts northwest the subsidence from the ridging aloft will exit our region late Wednesday.
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis showed the upper level low has drifted south into Alabama and Georgia. A blocking pattern persisted across the US with another upper low across the northwest US and a ridge across the southern Plains. Highs in the middle to upper 80s are likely with southeast Kansas and western Missouri reaching the lower 90s.
It looks like lows will be a few degrees warmer across the region, given the lack of rain and cloud cover that we anticipated earlier in the afternoon. The cu field may persist after 00Z Thursday near the front across the WSW sections of E TX, becoming mostly SKC (aside from some thin cirrus that may spill SE around the Srn Plains upper ridge).
1219 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Visible satellite imagery depicts developing cumulus across parts of Indiana along the northern flanks of an expansive cyclonic upper low pinwheeling across the Tennessee River Valley.
1144 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 A few showers linger across portions of west Tennessee and North Mississippi on the west side of an upper level low centered over northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia. The upper level low will move to the south over the next 24 hours or so then return to the north keeping the Midsouth on the west/drier side of the low. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler tomorrow and Thursday with highs mainly in the low to middle 80s.
Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. The upper level ridge that has been plaguing the area with record breaking heat will be centered across northern Mexico today. This will place West Central Texas on the northeastern periphery of the ridge, with general northwest flow aloft.
The 500 hPa trough that has been parked over the Northwestern US will soon begin moving as the strong upper level ridge over the eastern provinces of Canada begins to break down and high pressure over northern Mexico builds.
Temperatures remain cooler than normal as the cutoff low pressure system controls the Southeast CONUS weather. Subtle vort maxima within the upper low will continue to enhance localized convective bands rotating around the stacked low pressure system. For our region, southern zones near the low pressure center will have the best chances for precipitation this afternoon and evening.
917 PM PDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Troughing continues with below normal max temperatures expected the next few days, despite slight warming on Wednesday. Breezy winds as a result of the troughing expected to decrease after Wednesday evening and through the remainder of the week, becoming light for most areas. Cloud cover increases as another upper level low moves in late Thursday evening, bringing chances of coastal drizzle.
Tonight and Wednesday Quiet and warm weather will continue through Wednesday, with upper and surface ridging occurring across the region. will continue with a dry forecast, even though a few convective-allowing models generate scattered showers during the afternoon, as ridging prevails and there is a lack of a trigger.
1106 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 VFR conditions with periods of few-sct cumulus and some increased mid to upper level clouds on Wednesday around the far northern fringes of low pressure to the south. Despite prevailing easterly flow, dewpoints have been able to rise into the lower 60s for most areas this afternoon, with even a couple mid 60s readings out there making it feel more on the humid side with high temps peaking in the low/mid 80s. Cloud cover rapidly diminishes overnight with stable conditions overhead and high cloud from an upper-level trough over the Tennessee Valley remaining far enough to the south/southeast. A persistent light easterly wind will keep low temps in the low/mid 60s for most outside of the upper 50s for the interior Thumb.
1044 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Southwest flow continues across Wyoming as a broad trough sits over the northwestern CONUS. Not much change is expected on Wednesday as the trough remains to our west, though the axis will shift a little closer. Precipitation will be a little more widespread again on Thursday as the trough digs farther south along the West Coast.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper ridge that brought the heat to the region remains centered over Mexico this morning extending across TX and NM up through the Central Plains to the Great Lakes. A trough extends down the West Coast with a closed low developing over the CA Coast tonight and Thursday but the ridge will remain over the area Thursday.
1218 AM PDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Below normal temperatures are expected across the forecast area for the next few days due to low pressure aloft bringing in marine cooled air to the region.
surface and upper level ridging will prevail across the western Great Lakes as we remains in between a weak cut-off low over the southeastern U. and a deep trough across the western U. surface and upper level ridging will remain over the region bringing another quiet day.
210 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Low pressure will reside across the Tennessee Valley through mid week. The low will then return north late in the week before pushing off to the east over the weekend. Bulk of the shower activity appears to be east of I-75 at the start of the period and moving from the northeast toward the southwest (yes, you read that correctly) thanks to the low pressure system sitting near the Tennessee Valley region. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s north to mid 60s south. Upper low remains to the south Wednesday and Wednesday night. As such, temperatures will be warmer across the north (lower 80s) and cooler in the south (upper 70s). Lows will mainly be in the lower 60s.
1239 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Upper level ridging continues over the Central U. and a prominent low pressure system remains in the Pacific Northwest. The area of high pressure will persist over the next 24 hours. Temperatures tomorrow look to be a few degrees cooler and no heat highlights look to be warranted at this time.
The low level jet will also help keep the storm chances high during the overnight. High temperatures today will be much cooler in the 70s, which might limit the CAPE and storms this afternoon.
Another concern will be the slower movement of cells with the higher PWAT air lending to more efficient rainfall producers.
1155 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Updated AViation Discussion Cooler than average temperatures will continue this week, along with a few daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, as a few weak weather systems push through the area.
No changes on the pattern, a high pressure remains to the south and a stalled frontal boundary to the north of our area leading to an unsettled weather pattern through the forecast period.
201 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 A moist pattern, with above normal rainfall chances and below normal high temperatures, will continue for several more days with an upper level low nearly stationary just to our west. Closed low still expected to hang out across the Deep South through Thursday, with embedded vort maxima rotating around it providing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.
(Today through Thursday) In the lower levels, we have a stalled boundary situated just S of our CWA across the far SRN part of AL. At the same time in the upper levels, there is a large upper low feature situated from KY to the FL Panhandle. Through Thursday, this low may expand further NWD and a tad WWD. However, with this upper low pattern, we are not anticipating severe thunderstorms.
835 PM PDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Slight warming continues through Wednesday in advance of a low pressure system approaching the West Coast.
Persistent cloud cover will keep temperatures a little cooler further west this afternoon. The synoptic pattern across the CONUS for the rest of the workweek looks to consist of a mid-level cutoff low lingering over the eastern US, a series of waves riding through the troughing pattern in the western US and a ridge sandwiched in between.
235 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Key messages: - Active pattern continues with chances for storms (some of which may be strong to severe) and locally heavy rainfall - Drier weather returns by the end of the weekend Current sfc analysis depicts cold front draped over central SD, convection has formed along the frontal boundary and is continuing to move eastward with the front. Western US troughing remains in place through the end of the week, keeping us under the unstable southwesterly flow.
The temperature gradient will be sharp with 70s behind the sfc front and under the leading edge of the upper trough in north central SD to near 90 degrees across west central MN where warmer south to southeast mixing winds are forecast. An upper level trough currently over the west coast will play a significant role throughout the weekend.
Troughing continues with below normal max temperatures expected the next few days, despite slight warming on Wednesday. Breezy winds as a result of the troughing expected to decrease after Wednesday evening and through the remainder of the week, becoming light for most areas. Cloud cover increases as another upper level low moves in late Thursday evening, bringing chances of coastal drizzle. (Today and tonight) Another sunny but breezy day today, though gradients begin to relax today as the upper low starts to broaden out over the western US. Cool temperatures continue into the latter part of the week as we remain in a trough pattern. By Thursday morning, a trough is expected to deepen over coastal CA, which will likely bring back the familiar deep marine layer, featuring coastal drizzle low-to-mid cloud cover penetrating well inland.
The cooler temperatures will provide less CAPE than yesterday. The low level jet will also help keep the storm chances high during the overnight. High temperatures today will be much cooler in the 70s, which might limit the CAPE and storms this afternoon.
648 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 (Today through Thursday) In the lower levels, we have a stalled boundary situated just S of our CWA across the far SRN part of AL. At the same time in the upper levels, there is a large upper low feature situated from KY to the FL Panhandle. Through Thursday, this low may expand further NWD and a tad WWD. However, with this upper low pattern, we are not anticipating severe thunderstorms.
* Cloudy and cooler today and for the next couple days with precipitation potential.
6 inches with the highest values across the southwest. WPC had been going with a marginal ERO across our area for today but has removed it in the last update which seems warranted given the lower PWATs and lower QPF.
625 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper ridge that brought the heat to the region remains centered over Mexico this morning extending across TX and NM up through the Central Plains to the Great Lakes. A trough extends down the West Coast with a closed low developing over the CA Coast tonight and Thursday but the ridge will remain over the area Thursday.
556 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 (Today) An upper level low continues to meander over the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians, while a surface boundary lingers near the Gulf coast. As for temperatures, high coverage of showers/storms will keep highs at bay - in the lower to mid 80s in the west and mid to upper 70s in the east.
GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to highlight a stubborn upper-level low and associated trough firmly planted across the Southeast, in contrast to a ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic. The 12z sounding at KEY revealed modestly falling geopotential heights at most sampled isobaric surfaces, indicative of the ridge slowly retreating northeastward and foreshadowing increasing measurable rain chances as we close out the week. From synopsis, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic across South Florida will maintain light to gentle, mainly southeast breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters through Thursday.
651 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 High pressure over the Northeast will provide fair weather and seasonable temperatures today. High pressure over eastern Canada and the northeast CONUS will provide a fair weather day today.
Skies mostly clear this hour, with another band of clouds from the upper low pushing toward southeast Illinois. Morning high-res model guidance continues to suggest a stray shower/storm in that area toward late afternoon, and will keep the low PoP's going in that area.
Generally seeing east to west movement of showers today as the center of the low pressure system has moved further south. Expect coverage of showers and storms to see an uptick later in the daytime hours with the axis of heaviest precipitation likely shifting south closer to the center of the low over Georgia/Alabama (Today and tonight) Key Messages: 1. Temperatures remain cooler than normal as the cutoff low pressure system controls the Southeast CONUS weather. Subtle vort maxima within the upper low will continue to enhance localized convective bands rotating around the stacked low pressure system. For our region, southern zones near the low pressure center will have the best chances for precipitation this afternoon and evening.
A cut-off low and upper waves will aid in afternoon and evening thunderstorm development near the Trinity horn and Yolla Bolly Mountains through the end of the week. Effects of a further weakening trough are evident by the increasing pressure heights and subsidence from the continuing progression of the axis eastward. Light winds are also associated with negative earth vorticity with a ridging pattern upstream, yet this trough lobe will elongate and morph into a cut- off Low Thursday evening.
450 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Key messages: - Active pattern continues with chances for storms (some of which may be strong to severe) and locally heavy rainfall - Drier weather returns by the end of the weekend Current sfc analysis depicts cold front draped over central SD, convection has formed along the frontal boundary and is continuing to move eastward with the front. Western US troughing remains in place through the end of the week, keeping us under the unstable southwesterly flow.
A lingering SW-NE oriented trough of low pressure will gradually fill/retreat NE through the rest of the week, limiting shower/t- storm chances to areas close to the MT border this afternoon, and along the immediate WY border Thu afternoon/eve. Meanwhile, a fresh, closed low pressure center will load/deepen off the CA coast, eventually ejecting inland toward our forecast area Fri as a negatively-tilted feature bringing our next chance of widespread showers, t-storms, and wind. With lows coming in several degrees warmer than what we're seeing this AM, it's unclear whether or not one more Frost Advisory will be needed for a few of our agricultural zones.
719 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Evening synoptic analysis indicates subtropical ridge over the Mexican Plateau, with omega block type pattern over most of the CONUS (i. ridging well into the Mid West to Great Lakes, troughing both in Pacific Northwest & east of the MS River. Closed low is currently parked over the AL/GA line, with northerly flow aloft persisting over the region. Cooler thermo profiles & some clouds will limit insolation. Highs will be a touch cooler in the northeast half in east MS in the mid-upper 80s while near normal into low 90s to the southwest. /DC/ By Thursday, this upper low will start to lift northeastward and an upper high will begin to build over western Texas. Ridging promoted by this high will bring diurnally driven convection and hot temperatures to the region over the weekend.
The weather pattern remains the same with upper level trough spinning over the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure remains across the Florida Straits keeping southwest flow in the lower levels. High pressure continues to be south of the state, as frontal boundary associated with low pressure system remains stalled to the north. Persistent weather pattern with high pressure to the south of the while front remains stationary near the Georgia/Florida border.
1025 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Low pressure will reside across the Tennessee Valley through mid week. The low will then return north late in the week before pushing off to the east over the weekend. Lows will mainly be in the lower 60s. Temperatures to be muted by clouds and pcpn development with highs from the lower/middle 70s southeast to the upper 70s northwest.
Further Details: Models are suggesting later today an H5 low will break off from the main trough over the PacNW and become a cut-off low. This cut-off low is then progged to meander over central to northern parts of California through Thursday night before pushing east. We have another day to analyze data, and things could shift if the cut-off low develops farther north, but at this time confidence is higher for Thursday to be mostly dry.
640 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Low pressure will reside across the Tennessee Valley through mid week. The low will then return north late in the week before pushing off to the east over the weekend. Lows will mainly be in the lower 60s. Temperatures to be muted by clouds and pcpn development with highs from the lower/middle 70s southeast to the upper 70s northwest.
638 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 The Mid-South will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper level low pressure system through the end of the workweek.
Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms return this evening with the highest coverage along the Tennessee River. ANS The Mid-South will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper level low pressure system through the end of the workweek.
The Mid-South will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper level low pressure system through the end of the workweek.
424 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Evening synoptic analysis indicates subtropical ridge over the Mexican Plateau, with omega block type pattern over most of the CONUS (i. ridging well into the Mid West to Great Lakes, troughing both in Pacific Northwest & east of the MS River. Closed low is currently parked over the AL/GA line, with northerly flow aloft persisting over the region. Cooler thermo profiles & some clouds will limit insolation. Highs will be a touch cooler in the northeast half in east MS in the mid-upper 80s while near normal into low 90s to the southwest. /DC/ By Thursday, this upper low will start to lift northeastward and an upper high will begin to build over western Texas. Ridging promoted by this high will bring diurnally driven convection and hot temperatures to the region over the weekend.
717 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 A slow moving upper low will meander to our west for the next couple of days before finally lifting north and east by the weekend. As the upper low lingers to our west into tonight, may have a relatively dry period between morning and midday as NVA prevails. High temps today will range from upper 70s along and west of I-95, with NE winds associated with inland ridge dominate along with lingering low clouds, to low 80s near the coast.
935 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 High pressure over the Northeast will provide fair weather and seasonable temperatures today. A textbook Rex block featuring a strong mid level ridging over eastern Canada and an equally anomalous mid level low over the Tennessee valley will provide fair dry weather across our forecast area through tonight. this block will break down with the aforementioned mid level high sliding across New England to the coast where it become absorbed in the eastern Atlantic longwave ridge.