Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will lead to a mostly sunny and seasonable day today after a chilly start, with the exception of low clouds along the coast. A weak Pacific frontal system will bring some showers Monday, especially for the higher terrain, along with breezy westerly winds in the Columbia Gorge.
Warm front has pushed north of the area, leaving the CWA within the warm sector. Precip chances look minimal at best over the western CWA, even with the low-level jet in place.
Upper-level ridging will remain steadfast today, before beginning to break down into tomorrow. This breakdown will be associated with the troughing to our west, and eventual cold front ejection into the middle of the week. However, we won't really notice any changes in our weather, at least for tomorrow, as this ridge begins to break down.
127 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 High pressure will build across the region tonight.
1246 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to develop along a warm front that is pushing into our northern counties, so adjusted POPs for some more coverage. Probabilities of greater than 90 degrees in these areas is less than 10%, so not expecting anything higher than the high 80s. Temperatures on Monday will get into the mid 80s in some locations, but a frontal passage will turn our winds northerly to stop the ongoing WAA from the ridging and usher in colder temperatures. Key Messages: 1) Rain possible mid-week with a trough, low chance for severe weather.
150 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 Outside of localized morning river valley fog, dry weather and seasonably warm temperature is expected through mid week under the influence of high pressure.
This is possibly aided by the low-level jet as well. For the rest of today, southerly winds will continue to increase south of the warm front. The winds will help mix down the very warm air under the upper ridge.
1230 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 High pressure maintains dry and sunny weather through midweek, with valley fog developing each night.
226 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023 Water vapor imagery shows amplified upper level ridging dominating the eastern half of the CONUS while a deep upper level trough sits over the Central Great Basin.
Tonight, very patchy fog is again possible, with a clear or mostly clear sky expected with lows mostly in the lower 60s, with upper 50s in a few of the eastern valleys.
259 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 High pressure centered off to the north will continue to build into the region through the middle portion of the week.
1235 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 Offshore low pressure will continue to track out into the western Atlantic, while high pressure builds in through mid week. The high will then give way to a frontal system at the end of the week. High pressure will continue to provide dry conditions.
(This evening through Monday) The bowling ball upper low continues to spin over Nevada this afternoon and will remain stationary tonight. Southwesterly flow ahead of the wave continues to feed midlevel moisture into eastern New Mexico and West Texas, which is represented with the high clouds. Southeast surface winds paired with the cloud cover has limited warming temperatures across the High Plains. However, breaking clouds will give way to temperatures warming close to the lower 80s along the Caprock, while the temperatures off the Caprock are quickly approaching the upper 80s. In addition, low clouds will build into the High Plains. Heading into the afternoon hours, the upper trough will begin to shift eastward with the upper jet approaching West Texas.
An overview of this afternoon's conditions based on satellite data shows mostly clear skies across the region, with some spotty cumulus popping up over higher terrain, except for southeast Lake and Modoc counties, where a closed low centered over northeast Nevada is wrapping moisture around it into the area. Behind the low, a broad ridge over the Pacific has tilted east into the area, bringing more stable, dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon.
741 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 High pressure maintains dry and sunny weather through midweek, with river valley fog developing each night.
Sunday night through Monday: The Inland Northwest is currently sitting between ridging to our west and a deep upper level low to our southeast. The ridging is bringing pleasant conditions to central Washington and a majority of far eastern Washington. Moist, northeast flow on the north side of the upper low into the Idaho Panhandle and southeastern Washington has kept these areas under a deck of overcast clouds for today. The northwest oriented flow will enhance lift for southeast Washington, the central Panhandle, and the Blues where the highest rain totals are forecasted. Winds on Monday will increase from the west and southwest with gusts 20-25 mph expected through our Cascade gaps and across the lower Columbia Basin.
942 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 High pressure will build across the region tonight.
Evening RAOB analysis shows upper level ridge axis stretching from east Texas into the western Great Lakes region, while at the surface the center of high pressure was just off to our east over IN/MI/OH. Did note that surface dew points mixed out into the low-mid 50s across much of the southern/western parts of the forecast area this afternoon, which combined with the clear skies and nearly calm winds will likely support overnight mins in those areas a couple of degrees or so cooler than previous forecast.
According to MRMS data, the Lower Keys experienced the highest accumulation, just over four tenths of an inch in the evening. The weak front will slide southward through Florida tomorrow as high pressure builds over the southeastern United States.
935 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 High pressure and dry conditions continue across the CWA. A high amplitude upper level ridge will remain in place from Louisiana to the Great Lakes. Meanwhile at the surface a broad high pressure system will continue to camp over the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will rise into the lower 80s Monday afternoon with a few fair weather cumulus drifting overhead.
951 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 High pressure prevails through most of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal. Moisture limited cold front will move across late week, bringing the biggest dose of fall seen so far this season. High pressure in the Ohio Valley through the period, moving east at a snail's pace. Locally this means a continued NE wind while a mid level ridge axis means downsloping flow and no cloudiness. High pressure aloft and at the surface maintains control, keeping the forecast dry.
626 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 High pressure prevails through most of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal. Moisture limited cold front will move across late week, bringing the biggest dose of fall seen so far this season. High pressure in the Ohio Valley through the period, moving east at a snail's pace. Locally this means a continued NE wind while a mid level ridge axis means downsloping flow and no cloudiness. High pressure aloft and at the surface maintains control, keeping the forecast dry.
830 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 High pressure centered off to the north will continue to build into the region through the middle portion of the week.
& A low pressure system will bring cooler conditions and occasional breeziness to the Desert Southwest through Monday. A return to above normal temperatures is anticipated late in the week as high pressure builds across the intermountain West.
The departing trough feature has allowed stronger NE winds to wrap southward along the coast since late aftn. Cloud cover will slowly decrease from north to south into late tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
736 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 Dry high pressure will dominate the region through the week. A cold front approaches late week with much cooler weather for the weekend. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s.
655 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023 (This afternoon through Monday) High pressure and east to northeasterly winds will remain through the short term. Dry air and a rain free forecast are expected, with temperatures several degrees above normal with highs today and Monday in the mid to upper 80s and lows tonight in the low to mid 60s.
622 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 High pressure will remain over the region into mid week.
631 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023 Water vapor imagery shows amplified upper level ridging dominating the eastern half of the CONUS while a deep upper level trough sits over the Central Great Basin.
726 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 High pressure will keep warm and dry conditions across the region into midweek.
724 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 Aviation Limited concerns in the short term period with high pressure slowly slipping away to the east between tonight and Monday night.
Temperatures are running 4-7 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, right about as expected thanks to cool advection that occurred overnight. The trough is progressing slow and therefore expecting gusty winds once again Tucson eastward with the strongest winds closer to the New Mexico border during the afternoon. By that time cooler and drier air will be moving in from the west resulting in lower humidity levels Monday most areas. Generally cooler than average temperatures ranging from near normal far southeast Cochise county to as much as 14 degrees cooler than normal far western Pima county.
727 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 Outside of localized morning river valley fog, dry weather and seasonably warm temperature is expected through mid week under the influence of high pressure.
542 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023 (This afternoon through Monday Night) Upper ridging influences continue to bring fantastic weather to the mid state. The 30 year normal high temperature for BNA today is 79, so we're several degrees warmer than what we might typically see.
929 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 High pressure will keep warm and dry conditions across the region into midweek.
High pressure has led to a sunny and seasonable day today after a chilly morning. On Monday, a weak Pacific frontal system will bring some showers, especially for the higher terrain, along with breezy westerly winds in the Columbia Gorge.
Nudged the lows down a degree or two for the northeast part of our CWA where the best radiational cooling conditions overlap. A midlevel ridge parked over the eastern CONUS will allow a stationary front to remain draped across the eastern Gulf waters.
635 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023 (This evening through Monday) The bowling ball upper low continues to spin over Nevada this afternoon and will remain stationary tonight. Southwesterly flow ahead of the wave continues to feed midlevel moisture into eastern New Mexico and West Texas, which is represented with the high clouds. Southeast surface winds paired with the cloud cover has limited warming temperatures across the High Plains. However, breaking clouds will give way to temperatures warming close to the lower 80s along the Caprock, while the temperatures off the Caprock are quickly approaching the upper 80s. In addition, low clouds will build into the High Plains. Heading into the afternoon hours, the upper trough will begin to shift eastward with the upper jet approaching West Texas.
A cold front will move through the area by the middle of the week, bringing rain chances and cooler temperatures. A low level ridge axis remains oriented southwest across the area, resulting in light easterly flow. Lows should be similar to a couple degrees warmer than last night, in the mid 50s to low 60s. * A cold front works through the area by midweek, bringing the return of precipitation. * Cooler temperatures filter in behind the front, sticking around through the weekend. Omega blocking remains in place aloft with upper ridging anchored over the Midwest states. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the eastern Great Lakes Region, keeping things unseasonably warm, quiet, and dry here locally. Temperatures early this afternoon are sitting in the low to middle 80s and should peak in the middle to upper 80s.
A cold low pressure system will linger over the area today with isolated showers possible through this evening, especially in LA County. A secondary upper low that dropped into the base of the trough this morning has maintained light to moderate shower activity in the San Pedro Channel but so far no thunderstorms and very little indication of rotation that might result in waterspouts. The trough is expected to exit to the east Monday and quickly replaced by a high pressure ridge that will build over California through the week. So aside from some morning low clouds up north expecting plenty of sunshine Monday with warmer temps.
727 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023 This evening through Tomorrow: We will see a continuation of hot and dry conditions as high pressure remains the predominant influence over the area. Lack of evapotranspiration thanks to dry soils, has recently allowed temperatures to rise to the low to mid 90s across the area.
Upper low was near Challis, ID this evening and weakening. The low is headed into Montana so we will update lower PoPs for tonight. After brief ridging and clearing Monday the next Pacific trough will come in from the northwest Monday evening with more pcpn.
347 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2023 A trough extending virtually the entire length of the West Coast is beginning to impact Wyoming, reminding us that the calendar has now flipped to October. This will make for a cooler day behind its associated cold front, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving generally northward across the area. Given the cooler temperatures, some of this will fall as snow at higher elevations today, generally around or above 9,000 feet. A second low will pass through on Monday as the main trough axis approaches. Otherwise, temperatures will be a little cooler, with mountain snow again expected around 9,000 feet. Showers will continue Monday evening as the low pulls directly northeast across the state.
549 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2023 A trough extending virtually the entire length of the West Coast is beginning to impact Wyoming, reminding us that the calendar has now flipped to October. This will make for a cooler day behind its associated cold front, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving generally northward across the area. Given the cooler temperatures, some of this will fall as snow at higher elevations today, generally around or above 9,000 feet. A second low will pass through on Monday as the main trough axis approaches. Otherwise, temperatures will be a little cooler, with mountain snow again expected around 9,000 feet. Showers will continue Monday evening as the low pulls directly northeast across the state.
109 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Dry high pressure will remain in place through the majority of the workweek.
1058 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023 Water vapor imagery shows amplified upper level ridging dominating the eastern half of the CONUS while a deep upper level trough sits over the Central Great Basin. These features will slowly migrate east through the week, but the influence of the ridging and of high pressure at the surface will persist through Tuesday. Locations with lower dewpoints, namely central and northeast Missouri, will be able to heat more quickly and mix more efficiently, causing them to be slightly warmer than locations to the east and south.
1053 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2023 A trough extending virtually the entire length of the West Coast is beginning to impact Wyoming, reminding us that the calendar has now flipped to October. This will make for a cooler day behind its associated cold front, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving generally northward across the area. Given the cooler temperatures, some of this will fall as snow at higher elevations today, generally around or above 9,000 feet. A second low will pass through on Monday as the main trough axis approaches. Otherwise, temperatures will be a little cooler, with mountain snow again expected around 9,000 feet. Showers will continue Monday evening as the low pulls directly northeast across the state.
208 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure will build across the region tonight.
Discussion: We remain in an Omega Block pattern across the Eastern CONUS today with an anomalous upper ridge axis across the Mississippi River Valley. Low- level ridging remains centered across the Ohio Valley with low- level northeasterly flow across the region. High pressure will continue the trend of a clear sky and calm winds tonight which will be a good setup for fog development near rivers and lakes, especially those that are within sheltered valley areas. Ridging will continue to control the forecast through late week as an omega block pattern remains in place across the CONUS.
The short term forecast period features an upper ridge over the Eastern U.
Cooler weather will continue with light rain showers expected over northern and eastern Nevada through Tuesday.
1245 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) A high amplitude pattern has developed, with a deep upper low across the western region and an expansive ridge stretched across the eastern half of the CONUS. These features will shift eastward over the next few days, with a surface storm system developing and moving across the northern states and a cold front sweeping eastward across the CONUS, moving into the central/southern Plains by the end of the period. In the meantime, high pressure with calm and mostly clear conditions continues through the period.
Dry weather will persist today as high pressure remains dominant over the region.
345 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure prevails through most of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal. Moisture limited cold front will move across late week, bringing the biggest dose of fall seen so far this season. Deep high pressure will maintain a dry, cloud-free forecast for the start of the work week.
122 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure will keep warm and dry conditions across the region into midweek.
SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE TOPS THE RIDGE DIPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES LOCALLY HOWEVER, AND EXPECT ANOTHER DAY IN THE LOW 80S (NORTH) TO UPPER 80S (SOUTH) TOMORROW.
Lows will be mainly in the low to mid 60s overnight. /15/ This evening through Tomorrow: We will see a continuation of hot and dry conditions as high pressure remains the predominant influence over the area. Lack of evapotranspiration thanks to dry soils, has recently allowed temperatures to rise to the low to mid 90s across the area.
105 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected through mid week, as high pressure holds over the eastern United States.
425 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 An expansive area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build east over the region through the midweek period, bringing mainly clear skies, light wind and above to much above normal daytime temperatures.
113 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Outside of localized morning river valley fog, dry weather and seasonably warm temperature is expected through mid week under the influence of high pressure.
The initial front will almost wash out this afternoon as a stronger warm front extends northeast from a Colorado low.
229 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Dry high pressure will remain in place through the majority of the workweek.
253 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure maintains dry and sunny weather through midweek, with river valley fog developing each night.
1223 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 (This evening through Monday) The bowling ball upper low continues to spin over Nevada this afternoon and will remain stationary tonight. Southwesterly flow ahead of the wave continues to feed midlevel moisture into eastern New Mexico and West Texas, which is represented with the high clouds. Southeast surface winds paired with the cloud cover has limited warming temperatures across the High Plains. However, breaking clouds will give way to temperatures warming close to the lower 80s along the Caprock, while the temperatures off the Caprock are quickly approaching the upper 80s. In addition, low clouds will build into the High Plains. Heading into the afternoon hours, the upper trough will begin to shift eastward with the upper jet approaching West Texas.
337 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure will keep warm and dry conditions across the region into midweek.
1011 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023 (Issued 1003 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023) No major changes to the going forecast this evening as high pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern.
Upper level ridging will be anchored with its largely north/south oriented axis just to our west, from roughly the Great Lakes to lower Mississippi Valley. High pressure will keep the weather warm and dry to begin the extended the middle of the week. After many days of warmer than normal weather across eastern Kentucky, a major pattern shift is in store for the end of the week and the upcoming weekend.
112 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure prevails through most of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal. Moisture limited cold front will move across late week, bringing the biggest dose of fall seen so far this season. High pressure in the Ohio Valley through the period, moving east at a snail's pace. Locally this means a continued NE wind while a mid level ridge axis means downsloping flow and no cloudiness. High pressure aloft and at the surface maintains control, keeping the forecast dry. The high to the north near the Ohio River Valley slowly pushes eastward towards the eastern seaboard by late Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday in the low 80s.
302 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 - Sunny and Warm today - Clear and mild tonight Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes. A very strong ridge was in place, stretching from the Lower Mississippi valley, across Illinois to the Great Lakes.
With the low level high centered east of the forecast area on Tuesday, light southerly return flow will drive slightly warmer air across the area and will support highs well into the 80s.
145 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected through mid week, as high pressure holds over the eastern United States.
With no tight gradient on the back side of the low, winds will stay mostly calm today. The chance of storms looks much higher than yesterday as the thermal ridge has moved off to our eastern counties allowing the south and central to be less capped.
(Today through Tuesday) High pressure remains over the Eastern CONUS.
14 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Monday) High pressure and east to northeasterly winds will remain through the short term. Dry air and a rain free forecast are expected, with temperatures several degrees above normal with highs today and Monday in the mid to upper 80s and lows tonight in the low to mid 60s.
Upper-level ridging will remain steadfast today, before beginning to break down into tomorrow. This breakdown will be associated with the troughing to our west, and eventual cold front ejection into the middle of the week. However, we won't really notice any changes in our weather, at least for tomorrow, as this ridge begins to break down. One more quiet short-term forecast is likely with the overnight shift, before that cold front enters our scope come Tuesday.
- A cooling trend sets in Tuesday and bottoms out at the end of the week with highs only in the low to mid 50s and lows in the 30s. - A mid week cold frontal passage will be our best chance for rain this week. After today a cooling trend is expected as the cooler airmass over Canada starts to slowly move in.
(Today through Tuesday) Easterlies are still quite agressive but as the inverted trough over the western gulf moves west the gradient will weaken and winds will ease a bit. High pressure remains dominate over the area and this will remain the case into mid week.