Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Sub- freezing temperatures will continue to feel even colder as southeast winds continue, most notably southeast of Boise across Mountain Home and Twin Falls. The current forecast remains on track, with a warming trend kicking off on Wednesday as an upper level ridge will push into the Pacific Northwest.
For the most part, impactful wintry precipitation has come to an end, but may hang to a lingering freezing drizzle threat for another couple hours. Do plan to issue a Special Weather Statement for areas that did see the freezing rain, sleet, and snow earlier this evening as the morning commute will likely have some lingering slick spots.
129 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 High pressure will slowly build over Central Pennsylvania through tonight.
116 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 A ridge of high pressure will keep any active weather over the next few days to the south and deeper into Kentucky.
High pressure moves through just north of the Quad State this morning, keeping conditions dry through the day with light winds. Despite partial clearing, temperatures will again struggle to reach freezing as many surfaces remain ice covered. High temperatures are likely to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, towards the low end of the model range, which would be a similar result to yesterday. Moisture streams northeastward from the base of the trough that progresses eastward into Texas.
1116 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 Intermittent snow across northern West Virginia will come to an end Wednesday, as high pressure brings about dry weather and rising temperature.
Temps are warm enough through the remainder of the lowlands for light rain.
Cronce (Issued 245 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023) Tonight through Wednesday night: Our cold air mass will persist overnight as high pressure very slowly slides south and east into the Ohio River Valley. Lows should be in the low single digits, to a few degrees below zero in low- lying inland spots. Wednesday, we'll see temperatures rebound to highs in the low 20s as a lobe of warmer 925mb air around -7C builds in aloft on the eastern periphery of downslope driven warming over the Central Plains.
- A backdoor cold front will move through on Thursday, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air to north central and central Nebraska and a chance for flurries to those areas.
This high will move off to the east today allowing winds to turn out of the southwest. While highs will be below normal, they should still be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, forecast soundings are showing only some mid level moisture late this evening and overnight with the low levels remaining dry. Surface winds will turn out of the west ahead of the attendant cold front that will move into the area during the afternoon.
Other than a few high clouds spilling through the ridge into NorCal skies are clear early this morning. After another cold start to the day with widespread frost through the Central Valley, the upper ridge will move through today bringing occasional high clouds along with a little warmer temperatures for most areas.
At the surface a 1030 mb high extends from eastern Oklahoma through Missouri with a developing lee side trough in the front range of the Rockies. Tonight shouldn't be as cold compared to the last few nights as the lower level airmass continues to slowly warm. With an upper level trough approaching and a closed low moves into west Texas the upper level winds should start to switch more northwesterly and usher out the clouds during the night. Thursday as the low moves into central Texas expect a quick moving frontal boundary to move into western Kansas and this will turn the winds more northwest and increase them in the afternoon. Overall temperatures should get closer to climo normals as highs range from the low 40s in the north to near 50 in the south.
Highs across the north will top out in the low to mid 30s while areas farther south reach into the upper 30s and low 40s.
(Today through Thursday) This morning, the stalled boundary that was along the coast has fizzled as the cold front that was to the NW has moved through most of the area. In the upper levels, C AL remains in SW flow with an upper trough and a low based in NW Mexico. As the trough nears, we will see rain showers return again from the W, spreading across the NW half of the area tonight and becoming widespread areawide on Thursday.
(Now through Thursday) Cloudy, chilly, and drizzly conditions are expected once again today as temperatures are only able to climb a handful of degrees into the lower to middle 40s this afternoon.
The lower levels will remain dry, so will not mention any snow in the mtns. Although 850-700 mb temps are fcst to be warmer today, inversions may still be hard to break where deeper snow pack exists. Thus have lowered highs from guidance and kept readings in the lower to mid 20s along the South Platte River valley areas over the plains. Meanwhile, where inversions break highs will reach the lower to mid 30s. Over the Denver metro area readings could reach the lower 40s in the wrn suburbs while ern areas may stay in the 30's. Have also lowered highs across the higher mtn valleys in the typical cold spots.
620 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 (Today through Thursday) A benign pattern persists as surface Atlantic high pressure and a mid-level high centered just south of the area combine to provide excellent convective inhibition. Lows will be in the 70s along the east coast and 60s elsewhere, while afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 80s though some isolated inland pockets could reach into the upper 80s.
A building ridge of high pressure will allow for temperatures to rise to near seasonal normals by Thursday.
412 AM MST Wed Feb 1 2023 Temperatures this morning are a good 15 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday! The range is still -15 to +5 across the western portions of the state though. The northwesterly flow will also begin to bring more gusty winds down the lee of most mountain ranges today, bringing some of the warmer air aloft down into the lower elevations.
High temperatures today will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday, topping out in the upper teens to upper 20s. A weak high pressure system arrives during the evening hours which will begin our decreasing temperatures as a cold front will be following closely behind. The aforementioned cold front pushes through during the morning hours, bringing a strong push of cold air advection (CAA) and pressure rises behind it leading to cool and breezy conditions. Most will see temperatures falling throughout the day, resulting in max temperatures mostly occurring during the morning hours and ranging from lower teens to lower 20s, depending on the timing of the cold front.
308 AM PST Wed Feb 1 2023 Temperatures will rebound this week to near season averages as high pressure briefly returns to the region.
Slick spots should melt and dry up as temperatures rise above freezing later in the morning and into the afternoon. Highs across the north will top out in the low to mid 30s while areas farther south reach into the upper 30s and low 40s.
430 AM MST Wed Feb 1 2023 Key Messages: 1) Warmer today and dry conditions are expected. Meteorological Discussion: A closed low and weak trough will pass over the region through the evening, but at most, there will be some added cloud cover over the mountains and the far southeast plains. Warmer temperatures are expected today with temperatures reaching the 40s over the plains.
The axis of the mid level ridge had lifted slightly north of Cuba, with last evening's 500 mb heights having risen slightly to 592 Dm. With no further strong southward jet maxima west of the trough axis, an accelerating progression is expected to catch up/phase with a northern stream trough diving southeast out of south central Canada. The ridge responsible for the warm and quiet weather will flatten and shift eastward allowing the subtropical jet to flow freely across the northern Gulf coast.
520 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 (Now through Thursday) Cloudy, chilly, and drizzly conditions are expected once again today as temperatures are only able to climb a handful of degrees into the lower to middle 40s this afternoon.
An upper-level ridge was in the process of moving east across the West Coast early this morning.
234 AM MST Wed Feb 1 2023 Temperatures this morning are a good 15 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday! The range is still -15 to +5 across the western portions of the state though. The northwesterly flow will also begin to bring more gusty winds down the lee of most mountain ranges today, bringing some of the warmer air aloft down into the lower elevations.
509 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 High pressure will slowly build over Central Pennsylvania through tonight.
518 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 Center of the high pressure system responsible for our bout of very cold air is centered across downstate Illinois early this morning. As this high pressure moves east into the Ohio Valley today, southwest winds and warm air advection will commence across our area. Given the deep/dense snowpack, undercut guidance temps a bit through Thursday across these areas as the high albedo snow pack should make it hard to fully realize the effects of the WAA, despite considerable sunshine. Cold front will move across the area during the afternoon Thursday, likely resulting in highs being reach earlier in the day northern CWA with nearly steady or slowly falling temps during the afternoon.
(Today through Thursday Night) To begin the period, icy roads will continue thanks to cloudy conditions and at or below freezing temperatures. This will bring another round of freezing rain and sleet to the state. Initially, most areas can expect freezing rain and/or sleet. But as the moisture pushes off to the northeast, the freezing temperature line will also move north. Right now, high-res models keep much of the moisture out of northern locations, although, a period of freezing rain and/or sleet is still expected. Once this system pushes out early Thursday afternoon we FINALLY see relief from the winter weather with warmer temperatures and sunny skies. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 20s to lower 30s. As overnight lows drop back below freezing Thursday night, use caution on roadways as black ice will become possible.
956 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 Forecast remains on track this morning as deep-layered high pressure remains in place over the Florida peninsula. (Today through Thursday) A benign pattern persists as surface Atlantic high pressure and a mid-level high centered just south of the area combine to provide excellent convective inhibition. Lows will be in the 70s along the east coast and 60s elsewhere, while afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 80s though some isolated inland pockets could reach into the upper 80s.
(Rest of Today) Temperatures at this hour (14Z) are above freezing and only a few very light returns are seen on the radar. Have not received any reports of freezing rain or hazardous travel conditions, however expecting any FZRA that did occur to start melting and still use caution on wet overpasses/bridges. Combined with bkn/ovc skies and temps ranging from the lower 40s in NW AL to lower 50s in eastern AL, it will make for a gloomy day.
413 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 High pressure will slowly build over Central Pennsylvania through tonight.
Places in the far southwest could warm back up into the lower teens.
657 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 (Today through Thursday) This morning, the stalled boundary that was along the coast has fizzled as the cold front that was to the NW has moved through most of the area. In the upper levels, C AL remains in SW flow with an upper trough and a low based in NW Mexico. As the trough nears, we will see rain showers return again from the W, spreading across the NW half of the area tonight and becoming widespread areawide on Thursday.
and Thursday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure centered from the southern Plains to the eastern Great Lakes early this morning. But southwest winds should draw in warmer air which will offer a brief reprieve from the bitter cold.
High pressure overhead has allowed for this peaceful night, but don't let it deceive you. A quiet and calm forecast is ahead of us today and tonight, as high pressure slowly slides east. Thursday will be a day of change, as a cold front is set to come through that day, bringing very cold temperatures behind it. Clouds will clear as high pressure slowly moves into the area, and we will cool into the single digits to negatives.
325 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 Center of the high pressure system responsible for our bout of very cold air is centered across downstate Illinois early this morning. As this high pressure moves east into the Ohio Valley today, southwest winds and warm air advection will commence across our area. Given the deep/dense snowpack, undercut guidance temps a bit through Thursday across these areas as the high albedo snow pack should make it hard to fully realize the effects of the WAA, despite considerable sunshine. Cold front will move across the area during the afternoon Thursday, likely resulting in highs being reach earlier in the day northern CWA with nearly steady or slowly falling temps during the afternoon.
-- Arctic front with snow squalls possible Thursday -- The fair weather is short lived as a large upper level low drops down from Hudson bay and settles over northern Canada. Front this low will be a cold front that will drape across the gradient with a strong gradient attached to it.
Partly cloudy skies and rain free conditions are expected today and tomorrow as a high pressure remains over the region. Meanwhile, upper level ridge of high pressure is in control and should keep series of disturbances from moving south today and Thursday. At the surface, area of high pressure builds and front stalls over Georgia.
618 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 High pressure will slowly build over Central Pennsylvania through tonight.
Meanwhile, upper level ridge of high pressure is in control and should keep series of disturbances from moving south today and Thursday. At the surface, area of high pressure builds and front stalls over Georgia.
Cooler temperatures will also spread over the area today. Cooler temperatures can also be anticipated today as the system passes to our south. Otherwise, a quick warmup will occur Thursday into the weekend as a brief ridge of high pressure aloft builds over the region in the wake of this system.
1023 AM MST Wed Feb 1 2023 Temperatures this morning are a good 15 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday! The range is still -15 to +5 across the western portions of the state though. The northwesterly flow will also begin to bring more gusty winds down the lee of most mountain ranges today, bringing some of the warmer air aloft down into the lower elevations.
Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, 35-40 degrees, so no wintry weather is anticipated.
316 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 Warming trend over the next couple of days will lead to high temperatures in the low to mid 30s by Thursday afternoon.
For the first time in about 3 days, all locations are expected to surpass freezing this afternoon, ranging from mid 30s on the deepest snowpack north, to near 40 under the cirrus canopy south. Closed cyclone over Sonora, Mexico 6 pm this evening is expected to reach Far West Texas 6 am Thursday, and this southern track ensures all precipitation will remain well to our south. This, despite a weak dry cold front and associated north wind shift Thursday.
333 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 High pressure centered to our south will keep fair weather here for Thursday.
Closer to the hills temperatures are slightly warmer - in the mid- to- upper 30s. Backdoor cold front pushes south-southwest into region tonight into Thursday. The western portions of SD into northeastern WY will be relatively warmer with highs in the 20s to low 30s. Forecast soundings hint at the potential for freezing drizzle or fog on Thursday night.
(Rest of today through Thursday) Conditions for the short term period will remain dry and sunny thanks to deep ridge of high pressure extending across the Florida peninsula.
Partly cloudy skies and rain free conditions are expected today and tomorrow as a high pressure remains over the region.
1124 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 Center of the high pressure system responsible for our bout of very cold air is centered across downstate Illinois early this morning. As this high pressure moves east into the Ohio Valley today, southwest winds and warm air advection will commence across our area. Given the deep/dense snowpack, undercut guidance temps a bit through Thursday across these areas as the high albedo snow pack should make it hard to fully realize the effects of the WAA, despite considerable sunshine. Cold front will move across the area during the afternoon Thursday, likely resulting in highs being reach earlier in the day northern CWA with nearly steady or slowly falling temps during the afternoon.
1059 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 (Now through Thursday) Cloudy, chilly, and drizzly conditions are expected once again today as temperatures are only able to climb a handful of degrees into the lower to middle 40s this afternoon.
As the H5 low passes north of the region, a ridge will build upstream over the Desert Southwest and a drier, northwest flow aloft will ensue.
This will generally remain the case during the short term, with high pressure keeping active weather to our south, and quiet but cool conditions expected across the area. Winds should be light and occasionally variable overnight due to the high, but broadly becoming more southwesterly with time. This will keep temperatures a bit above the colder readings from last night, but should still allow for lows down into the mid to upper teens, if not slightly cooler.
(This evening through Thursday) Weak 500 mb closed low over NW Mexico continues to stream moisture across our region, while frontal boundary has dipped cold air into the area, especially the NW third.
Tonight and Thursday An arctic cold front will move into north central WI late tonight, and through the rest of the forecast area Thursday morning.
137 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 A sharp cold front will pass through our region later on Thursday.
Temperatures are near or above 80, with dewpoints in the lower 70s. 1" of PW, a stout inversion near 850 mb, and gentle veering winds in the lower troposphere. Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail today through Thursday as high pressure slowly recedes to the east into the western North Atlantic.
252 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 Key Messages: - A backdoor cold front will track across the area through Thursday bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air with the potential for snow showers/flurries across portions of central and north central Nebraska.
Water vapor imagery continues to indicate a plume of moisture advecting into the region from the southwest ahead of an upper low centered over Baja California. As cloud cover remains prevalent over nearly the entire forecast area, temperatures have remained below freezing and any precipitation should remain frozen for the rest of the day. As such, there remains a bit of uncertainty as to how long any freezing rain will linger. The entire longwave trough looks to move out by Thursday afternoon and much quieter weather is expected beyond the near-term.
1148 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 (Rest of Today) Temperatures at this hour (14Z) are above freezing and only a few very light returns are seen on the radar. Have not received any reports of freezing rain or hazardous travel conditions, however expecting any FZRA that did occur to start melting and still use caution on wet overpasses/bridges. Combined with bkn/ovc skies and temps ranging from the lower 40s in NW AL to lower 50s in eastern AL, it will make for a gloomy day.
This is in response to an upper level ridge that will pass through our area tonight into Thursday.
1028 AM MST Wed Feb 1 2023 Key Messages: 1) Warmer today and dry conditions are expected. Meteorological Discussion: A closed low and weak trough will pass over the region through the evening, but at most, there will be some added cloud cover over the mountains and the far southeast plains. Warmer temperatures are expected today with temperatures reaching the 40s over the plains.
Today and Thu will be governed by a building ridge of high pressure providing quiet, dry, low-impact wx. Temps will continue to moderate/trend warmer, with highs today in the teens/20s warming another 5 degrees or so tomorrow, and lows 10 degrees either side of zero tonight. Patchy (but not widespread) AM freezing fog still cannot be ruled out anywhere, and we added this to the forecast over the Arco Desert/adjacent Central Mntn valleys as this is where the HRRR and NBM advertise the best potential.
Satellite imagery showing some mid and upper clouds over the area as an upper ridge builds in from the coast. The temperature profile from the morning wx balloon shows about 10 degrees of warming aloft over the last 24 hours and the warming will continue today as the ridge builds overhead. A building upper ridge will warm temperatures aloft, strengthening an inversion over the region through Thursday.
Breezy winds will return tonight into Thursday morning across the forecast area (northerly, gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range), as a cold front with good CAA/mixing moves through.
/29 (Now through Thursday) An upper low centered near the Baja area evolves into an open wave while progressing into the south central states through Thursday, and in the process starts to phase with a longwave trof evolving over the interior eastern states.
228 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 High pressure has shifted into the Ohio Valley which has brought the dvn cwa wall-to-wall sunshine, southwest winds and warmer temperatures.
Long duration water vapor loops suggest the mean-layer ridge centered over the Western Caribbean is sliding east. Also, the cyclone pivoting across the Baja registered a 60 m fall at 500 mb this morning over northwestern Mexico.
Warmer air aloft will moderate temperatures overnight with lows in the single digits to teens above zero. While winds will shift north with the sfc front in the morning, temperatures are expected to fall through the afternoon as the strongest CAA push spreads southward and north winds gust 20-30 mph (slightly stronger along higher elevations of the MN Buffalo Ridge).
1217 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 Forecast remains on track this morning as deep-layered high pressure remains in place over the Florida peninsula. (Today through Thursday) A benign pattern persists as surface Atlantic high pressure and a mid-level high centered just south of the area combine to provide excellent convective inhibition. Lows will be in the 70s along the east coast and 60s elsewhere, while afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 80s though some isolated inland pockets could reach into the upper 80s.
250 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday) Old cold front has moved just south of the CWA and will become stationary.
Due to a strong dry layer within the low and mid-levels (with a 20+ degree dewpoint depression at 600mb on the 12Z sounding), most of the precipitation is not reaching the ground except in areas where precipitation rates are heavier in western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Surface dewpoints also continue to be low, hovering around the low 10s across most of central and southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, with any significant rainfall likely causing a response with a decrease in temperatures. The rainfall will continue to exit to the east with the slow moving upper level trough, with precipitation chances expected to end by late Thursday afternoon in southeastern Oklahoma.
(This afternoon through Thursday) Old cold front has moved just south of the CWA and will become stationary.
Temperatures continue increase across the region as ridging builds over the Northern Rockies. Current temperatures range spans from the low 30s in the southwest to single digits in the northeast. Early tomorrow morning an Arctic cold front will push through the state. Gusty winds are expected along the frontal passage, but poor timing and weak subsidence will keep most of the higher winds aloft.