Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
428 AM MDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Upper air analysis shows low pressure sitting across the Great Lakes region, with northwest flow persisting across the northern Great Plains. Low amplitude upper ridging is approaching from the west, ahead of the next storm system moving onto the Pacific NW coast. On the surface, a broad area of high pressure stretches across the northern to central Plains. Temperatures have dropped into the 20s across the plains across the forecast area, and teens across the higher Black Hills. Warmer temps are expected today but still slightly below the seasonal average.
336 AM MDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Upper level ridging moving over the Northern Rockies today will bring quiet and overall dry conditions to Southwest through North Central Montana.
1006 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Cooler temperatures and unsettled weather will occur today and last into midweek. Skies clear out for a few hours tonight across Luzerne and Lackawanna counties, combined with temps in the low to mid 30s, moist ground and light winds could lead to patchy frost, especially in the higher elevations. A large upper level trough is over the Midwest and upper Great Lakes. Closed off upper low will continue to influence our weather through the period as it spins nearly stationary over the Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations pivot around the the upper low and will bring increased chances for showers as they push through.
Slightly cooler through Monday night as a weak system moves through.
515 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 An upper level trough will park over the Great Lakes and New England into at least the middle of the new week. Upper level troughing and a fair amount of cloud cover should result in chilly day for late April. GEFS 2m temp anomalies are 8-12 degrees below climo, ranging from the upper 40s over the Alleghenies, to the low 60s across the Lower Susq Valley.
616 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 (Today through Monday afternoon) Our strong cold front has cleared the region early this morning. A thick cloud layer looms across much of the area keeping much of the lower elevations in the 50s! The record cold high temperatures is 55 this afternoon at Midland International.
603 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front has pushed south of West Central Texas early this morning, with the severe threat shifting south of the area. Expect highs this afternoon in the low to mid 50s for most locations.
Brief upper level ridging will give way to a moderately strong trough and associated spring snow storm. The upper level low will travel directly overhead, so much of the northern half of the forecast area will be in the cold sector, while the southern half will have much less snow in the warm sector.
Ridge pushes in from the west for this afternoon, ending the cool northwest flow and bringing warmer mostly sunny conditions as winds turn southerly. Ridge aloft keeps conditions dry and mild tonight.
The present temperature readings at Key West International Airport and Marathon International Airport indicate values in the lower 80s. Winds will veer to the east to southeast late this afternoon or evening as high pressure sinks into the southeastern United States.
811 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Temperatures have warmed above freezing so have let the freeze warning expire. Low clouds across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois have held temperatures in the low to mid 30s for most locations so far tonight. There is still time for temps to drop a few more degrees, but many locations may not reach freezing or below.
334 AM MDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low over the Great Lakes area. Circulating around the closed low was drier, cooler air. Tonight another weak upper level short wave trough will move over the southwest corner of the forecast area. WAA will return with the south winds, causing temperatures to be warmer than today. Sunday night an upper level short wave ridge will move in from the west. The continued WAA will keep lows a few degrees warmer than tonight.
Upper level ridging moving over the Northern Rockies today will bring quiet and overall dry conditions to Southwest through North Central Montana.
(Sunday through Monday) At 08z, a surface cold front was located across our southernmost counties/parishes of Deep East Texas eastward into Central Louisiana. No precip is expected during the day Monday as we'll be in a brief break between upper level troughs.
1020 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 The cold front is currently in place across the southern zones with mostly clear conditions in place behind it. The cold front is pushing through the southern waters this morning, with cautionary level winds occurring behind the front across the northern and the northern half of the central waters.
A cold front is moving across Western Washington this morning. An upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest tonight into Monday morning for continued rain showers.
Clouds expand in coverage tonight so expect warmer overnight lows. A few inches could fall in the higher elevations by mid day. A stronger low pressure slides in from the northwest late tomorrow, but will not impact the area just yet. Highs are expected to be a few degrees warmer than today.
617 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 (Today through Monday) Large upper low spinning over the western Great Lakes with ridging near the west Coast. At 3 AM CDT, temperatures were generally in the 50s, but in the New Orleans area, winds blowing across the warmer (lower 70s) waters of Lake Pontchartrain were holding temperatures in the 60s.
There is a pocket of clearing off to our northwest, but this is expected to fill in as daytime heating and cooler air aloft allow for scattered showers today. Temperatures barely go above freezing just in the lowest 1-2kft, which is why we should see the snow/graupel still even if our surface temperatures are in the low 40s (enough downward momentum to get to the ground before melting in this convective environment).
729 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 (Today and Tonight) Drier airmass filtering into the region behind cold frontal passage on gusty North winds this morning that will shift Northeast through the remainder of the day. Temps slightly cooler and closer to seasonal averages today with lower to middle 80s inland and mid/upper 70s in the breezy onshore flow along the Atlantic Coast. High pressure settles in just north of the region tonight and expect seasonable temps to continue as high clouds slowly increase through the overnight hours and lows will fall in to the mid/upper 50s inland and likely bottom out during the late evening/around midnight time frame due to the increasing clouds overnight with generally steady temps through morning. Onshore flow will keep lows in the lower to middle 60s along the Atlantic Coast.
-Enriquez PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Quick moving upper level ridge will move across the area Sunday and Monday.
648 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Cooler temperatures and unsettled weather will occur today and last into midweek. A large upper level trough is over the Midwest and upper Great Lakes. Closed off upper low will continue to influence our weather through the period as it spins nearly stationary over the Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations pivot around the the upper low and will bring increased chances for showers as they push through.
Dry conditions are expected tonight, but all of the computer models (CAMS) agree on a southerly flow in the lower levels, which will draw more humid air back across the panhandle of Texas into southwest Kansas as an upper level trough crosses the Rockies and moves out into the West Central High Plains.
Temperatures have warmed above freezing so have let the freeze warning expire. Low clouds across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois have held temperatures in the low to mid 30s for most locations so far tonight. There is still time for temps to drop a few more degrees, but many locations may not reach freezing or below.
204 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2023 A ridge axis is oriented from Alberta down into Nevada. This ridge will move into Montana tonight, increasing cloud coverage from the west tonight. Precipitation associated with this low will primarily be concentrated in north central Montana.
Chilly surface ridging will pull away overnight ahead of SSE winds with dewpoints rising into the 40s. The one exception to this is off the Caprock where deeper isentropic ascent and some seeder-feeder structures could garner very light rain, mostly in the morning, before ascent dwindles behind the H7 trough in the afternoon. Even though westerly flow will remain in charge of the mid and upper levels on Monday, the low levels continue to feature an extension of cool surface ridging on breezy SSE winds.
Many Valley locations will reach the low 90s by mid/late week. Already observing this trend in the 24-hour temp change; most locations are running about 2 to 5 deg F cooler at this time.
PoPs were modified to account for this low probability-low impact scenario.
153 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Cold front is through the area, with drier air in place across the northern half of the area.
Key Messages: Key Messages: - Sub-freezing temperatures again tonight for portions of central and northeast Nebraska, as well as western Iowa.
920 AM PDT Sun Apr 23 2023 A low pressure trough moving inland from the Pacific will bring cooling today and Monday, along with a deeper marine layer and gusty westerly winds in the mountains and deserts.
Sharper low-level troffing will drop s across eastern Lake Superior overnight, and this may aid the development of a few -shsn late tonight to the e of Munising. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over western Ontario which will slowly meander around and then finally end up over the lower Great Lakes by 00z Thu. Diurnal nature to showers will continue into Mon night and then it finally dries out as the upper low moves to the east. With some drying in the lower levels, VFR will prevail at IWD thru this fcst period. As high pressure begins to build over Lake Superior this week, the wind will stay below 20 knots through Fri.
316 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 A persistent upper level trough will keep unseasonably cool conditions across the region for the beginning of the week. An upper level trough will persist across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight. With diminishing winds, the potential exists for frost and/or freezing conditions. For the remainder of the CWFA, clouds will likely hold on too long and wind will be up slightly to prevent frost and/or freezing conditions. There should be enough of a window, especially the eastern two thirds, for frost and/or freezing conditions to occur once again. Lows will mostly fall into the lower 30s.
/14 (Now through Monday) The forecast remains on track this afternoon with a weak, secondary cold front currently draped across interior southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Dry conditions will otherwise persist through the period as high pressure builds in from the middle Mississippi Valley. Increasing north to northeasterly winds behind the front will also bring some reinforcing cooler air into the region. Low temperatures tonight are expected to range from the upper 40s well inland to the lower and middle 50s over central and southern portions of the area. Highs on Monday will be a bit cooler with values topping out in the upper 60s in our northwestern zones and the middle 70s over far southeastern zones.
After a slight warming trend this weekend temperatures will drop a few degrees through mid week as a weak area of low pressure moves through the region. This cooling trend will be short lived as high pressure rebuilds over the region toward the end of the week. This disturbance will push east this evening with high pressure becoming most amplified over the eastern Pacific.
Temperatures will remain cooler in wake of the cold front that passed through earlier today.
Frost is also possible in this pattern, especially early Monday morning when temperatures dip below freezing. This is due to broad upper level troughing over the Great Lakes region that will keep cooler temperatures and periods of clouds and light precipitation. However, a few locations in the eastern parts of the CWA, such as the western Ohio counties, will manage to get into the lower 50s. This will bring low temperatures in the lower 30s and upper 20s for the CWA. Of course, as usual the low-lying locations will see the coldest temperatures the cold air drains into these locations. Locations close to Lake Michigan will see slightly warmer temperatures with the light westerly winds in place. On the Climatological side of things, keep in mind that current normal lows for the area are in the lower 40s.
Looking ahead to Monday, expect mostly cloudy to overcast skies once again but dry conditions as high pressure to our NE will be the dominant feature.
With the cold front responsible for this morning/afternoon's convection now through the area, east-northeast surface winds will persist through tomorrow evening, supporting a continued high risk of rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches.
Lows tonight will be chilly as they range from the lower 40s to around 50.
/19/ (Sunday through Monday) At 08z, a surface cold front was located across our southernmost counties/parishes of Deep East Texas eastward into Central Louisiana. No precip is expected during the day Monday as we'll be in a brief break between upper level troughs.
(This afternoon through Monday night) Well-below normal temperatures in wake of yesterday's cold front will likely yield some record low maxes today as temps are still locked into the 40s anywhere east of the Davis Foothills. Temperatures are in the low-mid 40s over the Permian Basin with Midland locked into 43F at this hour. Actually had to adjust highs down 2-3 degrees areawide with this forecast package, despite the last forecast already forecasting a new record cold high in the low-50s. The low hanging fruit from '31 will fall gracefully under the guide of blanket overcast and downright cold air settled in place.
With high pressure influence our winds over southern Wisconsin on Monday, the lake breeze is expected to develop and push onshore. This will help keep cooler conditions near the lakeshore during the afternoon hours.
145 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 High pressure will settle over the area this afternoon and evening today bringing cooler and drier conditions to the region.
202 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Upper level ridging will provide overall quiet and dry conditions for the remainder of today.
(Tonight through Monday night) A cold front has moved through our CWA bringing northeasterly winds. Cooler, drier air is moving in. Temperatures are 15 to 20 degrees cooler and dewpoints are five to ten degrees lower than 24 hours ago. In the low levels high pressure will move slowly across from west to east north of Texas.
Low temperatures tonight will likely fall to near freezing in most locations.
357 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 A trough maintains its position over the Great Lakes with a ridge over western parts of the CONUS. After a record setting cold start to the day, temperatures rebounded into the lower 60s. Light winds helped make the sunshine feel even warmer.
Most temperatures were still in the lower to mid 50s at 2 PM today. Cold upper low over the Minnesota and Canadian border is continuing to bring in low cloudiness south through the Ohio Valley this afternoon while the extreme northern part of the Forecast area was mostly sunny with just a few afternoon cumulus. Right now temperatures across northern areas will be coldest in the lower to mid 30s and below freezing higher elevations. Another cool and slightly warmer in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
129 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Big, slow upper low will keep unsettled weather in our forecast for the time being. Complex area of low pressure remains centered between the Great Lakes region and James Bay early this morning. Upper level low remains centered from Western Ontario thru all of Michigan. while the parent upper low remains parked over Western Ontario thru tonight. Synopsis/Forecast: The cut-off low over southwestern Ontario will become more elongated through early week, making only very slow progress eastward (and finally out of our area by the end of the week) thanks to a blocking area of high pressure over Greenland. This will keep us cooler than normal and more cloudy than not through the first half of the week.
207 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Weak ridging today has brought a fine Spring afternoon, with nearly clear skies and near normal temperatures, except where snow cover remains persistent. The next trough is approaching from the PacNW, and will spread high clouds into the region overnight.
135 PM PDT Sun Apr 23 2023 A low pressure trough moving inland from the Pacific will bring cooling today and Monday, along with a deeper marine layer and gusty westerly winds in the mountains and deserts.
A large upper low was across southern Canada with troughing extending south into the area. With cold air aloft continuing across central Indiana, and some energy rotating around the upper trough into the area, some sprinkles and isolated showers will develop. Clouds will linger longer in the northern forecast area, but as high pressure brings increasing subsidence and drying, expect these to break up some. These conditions will allow temperatures to dip to freezing and below overnight. Monday night will again have a chance of frost, especially across the east, as low are expected to be near freezing and up to the upper 30s. Temperatures will remain pretty steady state through the period with highs in the low to mid 60s and lows in the 30s to 40s.
Surface ridging will maintain over the region tonight, which along with mostly clear skies will lead to another cool to cold night. Efficient radiational cooling conditions will lead to lows once again near freezing across the northern half of the forecast area, with some of the normally colder valley locations possibly experiencing another light freeze.
1246 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 (Today through Monday afternoon) Our strong cold front has cleared the region early this morning. A thick cloud layer looms across much of the area keeping much of the lower elevations in the 50s! The record cold high temperatures is 55 this afternoon at Midland International.
203 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Weak ridging today has brought a fine Spring afternoon, with nearly clear skies and near normal temperatures, except where snow cover remains persistent. The next trough is approaching from the PacNW, and will spread high clouds into the region overnight.
Fast, zonal flow will predominate at the mid-levels with decreased influenced from passing vorticity maxima rounding the base of the Great Lakes upper low. The aforementioned part of the forecast is key to have a near excellent radiational cooling scenario tonight and ultimately achieve below freezing temperatures since winds are anticipated to light and variable shortly after sunset. That being said, the official forecast reflects below freezing lows (30-32) for a good part of the area with the usual cold spots probably falling to the upper 20s.
1213 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front has pushed south of West Central Texas early this morning, with the severe threat shifting south of the area. Expect highs this afternoon in the low to mid 50s for most locations.
With skies becoming clear and winds becoming light and variable to calm, radiational cooling will help temperatures easily drop into the lower to middle 30s, which is around 15 degrees below normal. High temperatures Monday will be warmer than today but still around 10 degrees below normal in the 60-65 degree range.
320 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Satellite imagery shows a diurnal cumulus field across the region with an upper level low parked over the Minnesota/Canada border, leading to northwesterly flow across the region. For the overnight hours, in response to a broad area of low pressure developing off to our west, winds will become calm as they switch directions to become east- southeasterly. This will be occurring as the low pressure of to our west strengthens, which acts to increase our surface pressure gradient across the region. Wind gusts into the upper teens to mid 20s are expected, strongest across south-central SD, but on the plus side this will bring warmer temperatures leading to highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. SW Minnesota unfortunately will be left on the cooler side with highs in the lower to mid 50s.
In addition, the positioning of the high pressure system to the island chain will induce easterly to southeasterly winds, which will facilitate the influx of copious amounts of tropical moisture into the region, thereby instigating the formation of precipitation in the form of showers and thunderstorms.
(The rest of this afternoon through tonight) Mostly sunny skies this afternoon has lead to a decent warmup across NE OK with temperatures climbing into the lower 60s.
245 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 The upper level pattern will continue to be slow moving/blocky with a cold upper low sitting over the Great Lakes region and a second low lingering over the intermountain west. Northwest flow/slight ridging is expected over the Northern Plains.
1120 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 In the wake of the exiting cold front, high pressure will settle over the area today bringing cooler temperatures to the region.
221 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2023 20Z upper level analysis has large closed low just north of Minnesota, and weak ridge over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure resides across the central CONUS with winds generally light. Upper ridge over the Rockies will slowly slide east tonight into Monday with quiet weather anticipated.
Some dinural shower activity looks possible across the south-central late this afternoon, but they should have a hard time overcoming the low level dry air. Tonight, surface ridging and dry air continue, allowing for some clear to partly cloudy skies. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over western Ontario which will slowly meander around and then finally end up over the lower Great Lakes by 00z Thu. Diurnal nature to showers will continue into Mon night and then it finally dries out as the upper low moves to the east. With some drying in the lower levels, VFR will prevail at IWD thru this fcst period. As high pressure begins to build over Lake Superior this week, the wind will stay below 20 knots through Fri.
353 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Cooler and drier overnight and on Monday as high pressure builds into the area.
1035 AM MDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Upper air analysis shows low pressure sitting across the Great Lakes region, with northwest flow persisting across the northern Great Plains. Low amplitude upper ridging is approaching from the west, ahead of the next storm system moving onto the Pacific NW coast. On the surface, a broad area of high pressure stretches across the northern to central Plains. Temperatures have dropped into the 20s across the plains across the forecast area, and teens across the higher Black Hills. Warmer temps are expected today but still slightly below the seasonal average.
Currently a cumulus field has fully developed over central North Dakota, rotating around the upper low, but limited by the high pressure to the west. Later this week, around average low temperatures come back to play, along with slightly warmer highs.
as the aforementioned upper low de-amplifies and shifts east toward the central/northern Appalachians. Low-level southerly flow (on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned SFC-H85 trough) will advect a moist low-level airmass (emanating from the GOMEX) north toward the Tri-State area during the aft/eve. as guidance suggests that one or several weak lee cyclones may develop in climatologically/ geographically favored locations to the south (e. Both the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest that diurnal convection may be confined to southeast CO and adjacent portions of southwest KS (invof a weak lee cyclone) -- where relatively pronounced low-level convergence may aid updraft development amidst a marginally unstable (MLCAPE 250-500 J/kg) airmass.