Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (Today through Sunday) The mid level ridge strengthens through the weekend with slightly increasing low level moisture. As the ridge builds into Sunday, expect less seabreeze activity, less cloud cover, and highs notching a degree or two more than today.
Otherwise, the rest of the overnight period should be quiet as lows drop into the low 70s. Daytime Sunday, short range guidance agrees the upper level subtropical ridge will inch eastward, reaching almost directly overhead by the end of the short term period.
Ridging is currently sitting over the area with the morning skew-t showing PWs around 2.
Today will be the coolest day of the upcoming week, which if you like cooler weather, isn't very comforting since most locations will still see temperatures right around 100 degrees. Some showers and thunderstorms have developed just east of our area early this afternoon, and have opted to keep the low end PoPs in Karnes, DeWitt, and Lavaca Counties for later this afternoon as some could move into the area. The upper level ridge further expands east tomorrow, allowing a slight uptick in high temperatures Sunday afternoon. With the ridge further east, have kept PoPs tomorrow out of the area.
Temperatures have already risen into the lower 90s for most areas and will continue climbing into the middle 90s as we head into peak heating. A large upper level ridge over the southwestern and south central US begins to build further east into the Lower Mississippi Valley while an upper trough over the eastern seaboard broadens out and slides out into the western Atlantic. Temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer with highs topping out in the upper 90s for most inland areas and the middle 90s closer to the coast. These hot temperatures combined with dew points in the lower to middle 70s will likely result in another Heat Advisory being needed across much of the area for Sunday.
352 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 In the wake of a cold front crossing the Ohio River, high pressure will build into the region Sunday, provide more seasonable temperatures and lower relative humidity.
Later into the early evening hours, on the periphery of the NW quadrant of the H500 high pressure system, a perturbation should cause some showers and storms to form over the CO/NM high terrain.
Lows tonight will fall into the mid 70s keeping the region on the warmer side of things. Models have indicated a surface cold front will stretch across the Mid-South Sunday however there is still uncertainty as to how far south the front will sag. Heat index values are expected to reach up to 110 degrees however a few naturally warmer spots may over achieve and rise above 110 degrees.
(Tonight) Underneath partly cloudy skies this afternoon, most places have seen temperatures reach the low to mid 90s as dew points remain in the mid 70s.
Deep mean layer ridging remains over the western North Atlantic which is providing east to southeasterly flow through the Florida Keys and up the Florida Peninsula. Looking ahead, model guidance continues to remain locked in on an upper level trough digging southward across the eastern United States which will then slide eastward into the western North Atlantic as ridging builds across the South-central United States. The upper level trough will help to flatten out the ridge over the North Atlantic resulting in the Florida Keys being caught in between these features. However, a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough or (TUTT) cell currently over the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeast Bahamas when looking at satellite imagery will continue moving westward towards the Florida Keys.
The highest coverage of storms is expected along and north of I-40, with more isolated to scattered activity the further south you go into the southern TN Valley.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) With the upper ridge centered across Colorado and the TX/OK panhandles, an inverted trough is swinging across northern mexico along the southern edge of the ridge. By eating away at some of the thickness, this trough helps keep temperatures much closer to average than we've seen lately, but will still top out in the mid to upper 90s for most today and tomorrow afternoon. The trough also brings some increased low-mid level moisture, when paired with some decreased subsidence, may lead to a few diurnally driven storms across the Davis Mountains and Big Bend Sunday afternoon.
In fact, the center of the upper ridge responsible for these conditions will start to shift eastward to around the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region. This will put our region more under the influence of the ridge, resulting in a slight warming trend in temperatures, as afternoon highs are expected to climb into the lower triple digits in some locations. Dewpoints are still expected to mix out in the range of the mid 60s to around 70 degrees by the afternoon, but the slightly warmer temps will push heat indices to near and just over the 105 Heat Advisory threshold. Although a stray afternoon shower can't be ruled out, confidence for this occurring is rather low, due to the more eastward position of the ridge.
1221 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (Today through Sunday) Above normal warmth continues today with highs forecast to range from the mid 90s in the highest elevations of the Hill Country to near 103 degrees along the Rio Grande and favored hot spots along the I-35 corridor.
Cooler temps for today with a slight warmup for Sunday. Most of the higher instability will stay over southwest SD this afternoon with a marginal risk clipping parts of south central SD today-Sunday morning (12z Sat-12Z Sunday). On the other side of the CWA, a high pressure system will be over ND/MN area this afternoon into Sunday. 850mb temps range from 13 to 18C this afternoon which should equate to highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s across the CWA. Little bit warmer air moves in at 850mb from the ridge, which will increase temperatures a few degrees for Sunday. Models overall agree on the upper level pattern through mid week, which will generally feature a building ridge/rising heights.
One or two rumbles of thunder are possible, although the instability looks to remain below the freezing layer in much of the region, which will cap the potential.
605 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Widespread showers and drenching thunderstorms in association with an area of low pressure tracking along a cold front will continue through this evening before exiting later tonight. High pressure will bring a return to more tranquil weather on Sunday along with a significantly drier and cooler airmass.
(This evening through Sunday night) High pressure will build over the area this weekend, keeping rain chances fairly isolated/limited. Thanks to the higher humidities and light winds, feels like temperatures are between 108-112 generally tonight and tomorrow. Locally heavy rainfall could be possible inside of a strong storm, especially due to the lower shear.
High temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with readings mainly in the middle to upper 70s.
841 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Showers should end this evening as a cold front push south of the area and brings a cooler and drier airmass.
Stabilization of the lower atmosphere has increased with the loss of daytime heating.
1038 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 High pressure will build into the region Sunday, provide more seasonable temperatures and lower relative humidity.
809 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (This evening through Sunday) A weak area of high pressure will linger over MS through the short term with northwesterly flow across the central and eastern part of the state.
As the MCS is moving through the forecast area, a cold front is stretched across the I-70 corridor and weakening as it slowly moves south. Temperatures are expected to be cooler on Sunday than most days this previous week thanks to northerly post frontal winds, CAA, and additional cloud cover and precipitation from Sunday's potential MCS.
715 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 High pressure will build in from the west across the region Sunday through the first half of the week. Partial clearing will occur this evening and overnight tonight as the high builds, but lingering low-level moisture from previous rainfall and surface winds becoming light and variable should allow patchy radiation fog and river valley steam fog to develop toward daybreak Sunday morning. Overnight lows on Sunday night will be a bit cooler as they drop into the upper 50's to low 60's. A large upper level ridge will be centered near ther Colorado Rockies and an upper level trough will be positioned near the Canadian Maritimes with the Great Lakes region in a deep northwest flow aloft.
623 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Upper ridge continues to build over the western two-thirds of the country with another day of dangerous heating. Both NAM & NBM seem to have the better solution handing the surface moisture with the highest dewpoints and muggiest of air to be felt across our far southeast and northeastern CWA.
608 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Mid-level ridge will continue to build into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley over the course of the weekend. While areas in the Lower Rio Grande Valley and along the coast will see high temperatures in the upper 90s.
759 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 In the wake of a cold front crossing the Ohio River, high pressure will build into the region Sunday, provide more seasonable temperatures and lower relative humidity.
647 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon as the ridge continues to dominate weather patterns. Possible showers and thunderstorms will impact the NW portion of TN this evening due to a cold front moving over TN. Cooler temps and increased chances for storm development are expected for the following days.
958 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 A cold front has passed through the region with cooler and drier air building south in central NY and northeast PA overnight. Temperatures will be cooler starting Sunday with high pressure. A line of showers with heavy rain is ahead of a cold front moving into south central NY.
533 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (This evening through Sunday) The upper ridge spinning near the New Mexico and Colorado border is expected to slide eastward tonight into tomorrow towards the Oklahoma Panhandle. Conditions will remain dry as the upper high is to the north and northeast to easterly winds prevail aloft.
648 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (Tonight) Underneath partly cloudy skies this afternoon, most places have seen temperatures reach the low to mid 90s as dew points remain in the mid 70s.
Temperatures, while a touch cooler today - impacted by this morning's convection - and a bit cooler tomorrow, are expected to warm back up for the first half of the work week.
The models have the Pacific NW deep low pushing the heat ridge axis eastward, and the core underneath along with the flow into the new week.
Some showers and maybe an embedded thunderstorm or two will be possible as this system pushes north of our area riding the ridge.
613 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) With the upper ridge centered across Colorado and the TX/OK panhandles, an inverted trough is swinging across northern mexico along the southern edge of the ridge. By eating away at some of the thickness, this trough helps keep temperatures much closer to average than we've seen lately, but will still top out in the mid to upper 90s for most today and tomorrow afternoon. The trough also brings some increased low-mid level moisture, when paired with some decreased subsidence, may lead to a few diurnally driven storms across the Davis Mountains and Big Bend Sunday afternoon.
523 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 A cold front will drop in from the north, bringing showers and thunderstorms into this evening. While still warm today, temperatures will be cooler and dry starting Sunday with high pressure. A line of showers with heavy rain is ahead of a cold front moving into south central NY.
1005 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Widespread showers and drenching thunderstorms in association with an area of low pressure tracking along a cold front will continue through this evening before exiting later tonight. High pressure will bring a return to more tranquil weather on Sunday along with a significantly drier and cooler airmass.
30/Sirmon Temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon as the ridge continues to dominate weather patterns. Possible showers and thunderstorms will impact the NW portion of TN this evening due to a cold front moving over TN. Cooler temps and increased chances for storm development are expected for the following days.
Low/mid 90s expected for afternoon highs, with feels-like temps in the low/mid 100s and some Nature Coast locations potentially approaching Heat Advisory criteria. Ridging is currently sitting over the area with the morning skew-t showing PWs around 2.
806 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Showers should end this evening as a cold front push south of the area and brings a cooler and drier airmass.
751 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 A cold front has passed through the region with cooler and drier air building south in central NY and northeast PA overnight. Temperatures will be cooler starting Sunday with high pressure. A line of showers with heavy rain is ahead of a cold front moving into south central NY.
1158 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Widespread showers and drenching thunderstorms in association with an area of low pressure tracking along a cold front will continue through this evening before exiting later tonight. High pressure will bring a return to more tranquil weather on Sunday along with a significantly drier and cooler airmass.
Ridging continues across the region with stagnant light westerly flow expected through the beginning of the week.
126 AM MDT Sun Jul 30 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: To the northeast a large area of relatively cool high pressure lies over the Hudson Bay with a weak trough extending back west across the central Canadian Prairie Provinces. To the south hot, high pressure lies anchored over the Four Corners with a ridge jutting north through western Montana. West of this a closed low has formed over the coast of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia which is dragging pacific moisture up and around the jet flow along the International Boarder.
407 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Surface/RAP analysis early this morning indicates further strengthening of the western ridge and the correlating subsidence downstream. By daybreak, those interior west areas could dip into the low 40s.
Cooler temperatures expected today. But confidence isn't very high as most CAMs have done very poorly with convective initiation during the northwest flow on the periphery of the ridge. Temperatures today are expected to be about 5+ degrees cooler than the last few days.
326 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through the first half of the week.
1214 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 (This evening through Sunday) The upper ridge spinning near the New Mexico and Colorado border is expected to slide eastward tonight into tomorrow towards the Oklahoma Panhandle. Conditions will remain dry as the upper high is to the north and northeast to easterly winds prevail aloft.
(Today and tonight) The upper ridge will continue to slowly shift eastward today, with a slight increase in afternoon highs today.
Highs will range from the low to upper 90s across western Montana valleys, with the warmest valleys of north-central Idaho approaching the century mark. For the early part of this coming week, the Northern Rockies will still be under the influence of an upper-level ridge.
401 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Drier, cooler air builds in the wake of a departing cold front today. High pressure builds into the region through the middle half of the week, leading to drier and slightly below average temperatures. This is thanks in part to a departing cold front that is across AKQ's area. If and how far south the aforementioned cold front will sag south/stay north will somewhat control the overall precipitation chances. Highs today will top out in the low to mid 80s for the lower elevations and 70s for the higher terrain. Overnight lows will be in the 60s for most areas with some places along the Allegheny Font dropping into the low to mid 50s.
337 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Isolated mountain showers today with a cold front to our south. Dry, cooler, and less humid with high pressure through mid week. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80's with cooler dewpoints means that we will not be near advisory criteria for heat today, therefore more comfortable weather will be promoted. Key Points: * Cooler and drier for the first half of the week.
Towards the surface, lee troughing in eastern Colorado will induce southerly winds, transporting warm air into western Kansas. Overnight lows will settle into the low to mid 70s, providing little relief from the heat during nighttime hours.
Via water vapor this morning, it's noticeable the H500 ridge has become a bit more pronounced on the heels of Saturday's short wave trough digging southeast across the region. The 00z HRRR was very aggressive with a developing complex sliding south along the Missouri River, and later runs have backed off some, but continue to hint at convection working its way along the instability axis along the leeward side of the ridge into the region. Of note, the FV3 continues to take a different path, with a line of convection firing along the lee of the ridge, generally along the Missouri River From South Dakota down into MO/KS.
The advancing upper level subsidence should modestly strengthen high pressure to our northeast.
Otherwise, temperatures will be similar or perhaps 1-2F warmer than yesterday for all areas.
1139 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 A cold front will continue to slide further south tonight. Afterwards, high pressure builds in and influences drier conditions through midweek. NW flow will give a relief of the heat compared to the last few days, with highs only topping out in the low to mid 80s for the lower elevations with 70s for the higher terrain.
Our area remains parked under the 850mb thermal ridge axis, with high PWs near 1. 8-2 inches & increased sfc dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Lows tonight will fall into the mid 70s keeping the region on the warmer side of things. Models have indicated a surface cold front will stretch across the Mid-South Sunday however there is still uncertainty as to how far south the front will sag. Heat index values are expected to reach up to 110 degrees however a few naturally warmer spots may over achieve and rise above 110 degrees.
202 AM MDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Satellite imagery indicated a ridge of high pressure over our region with the axis through west central Montana. Mid level moisture and weak disturbances were evident in the flow around and through the ridge.
1219 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) With the upper ridge centered across Colorado and the TX/OK panhandles, an inverted trough is swinging across northern mexico along the southern edge of the ridge. By eating away at some of the thickness, this trough helps keep temperatures much closer to average than we've seen lately, but will still top out in the mid to upper 90s for most today and tomorrow afternoon. The trough also brings some increased low-mid level moisture, when paired with some decreased subsidence, may lead to a few diurnally driven storms across the Davis Mountains and Big Bend Sunday afternoon.
305 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Expect slightly warmer temperatures today with chances of thunderstorms this morning and again tonight. Thus the strongest storms should generally remain along and west of the Highway 83 corridor. After this activity moves out this morning, we should see mainly dry weather through the afternoon as a ridge axis to our west approaches. With the ridge axis nudging closer, expect slightly warmer temperatures today with highs in the upper 70s across the eastern Turtle Mountains, to the mid to upper 80s over the southwest. Tonight's lows will generally be in the mid 50s to the lower 60s.
Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are then expected through mid week under high pressure.
A weak sfc cold front is slowly pushing south through central KY. Northerly flow will advect slightly cooler, less humid air into the region today in the wake of the weak front.
111 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Isolated mountain showers today with a cold front to our south. Dry, cooler, and less humid with high pressure early in the work week. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80's with cooler dewpoints means that we will not be near advisory criteria for heat today, therefore more comfortable weather will be promoted.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude troughing in place across the northeastern third of the CONUS today with impressive heat dome anchored over the southern Plains and Four Corners region. Perhaps a few upper 40s in the typically cooler/interior locales. Upper-level ridging will be in place over western North America, with troffing in the east. The upper-level flow across the western Great Lakes region will be neutral or slightly cyclonic as disturbances rotate around a cutoff low over eastern Canada or ride over the western ridge.
High pressure slides through the north and into the Great Lakes region today.
347 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Morning clouds will give way to plentiful sunshine this afternoon with low humidity and highs in the low to mid 70s.
Saturday's storms over the higher terrain battled a capping inversion east of the Laramie Range that limited eastward propagation of stronger storms into a more favorable environment. In addition to the higher terrain, will need to watch these areas for CI as large hail could be possible with these storms.
241 AM MDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge centered over the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains will persist. Given that the Tri-State area is situated beneath the ridge.
1040 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Upper ridge continues to build over the western two-thirds of the country with another day of dangerous heating. Both NAM & NBM seem to have the better solution handing the surface moisture with the highest dewpoints and muggiest of air to be felt across our far southeast and northeastern CWA.
Low/mid 90s expected for afternoon highs, with feels-like temps in the low/mid 100s and some Nature Coast locations potentially approaching Heat Advisory criteria.
239 AM MDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Upper-level ridging continues through next several days, resulting in warmer temperatures across lower elevations. Broad upper-level ridging continues across much of western CONUS, resulting in yet another day of warmer temperatures, especially across the plains of Central Montana. In fact, the next several days will exemplify afternoon temperatures well above seasonal average, with temperatures in the low- to mid-90s for many lower elevation locations. 0 C/Km, and bulk shear above 40 kts - favorable conditions that would support supercells if it wasn't for the higher CIN values, resulting in more isolated to discrete storms instead.
(Today and tonight) High pressure aloft will continue to gradually strengthen across much of the region, keeping Hot and dry conditions over West Central Texas over the next 24 hours. With this gradually strengthening high pressure will come gradually increasing afternoon high temperatures.
Morning cold front and associated shower activity is now well south of the state line with cooler, drier northerly flow firmly in place across lower MI. With delta T's exceeding 10C (850mb temps in the low/mid teens C and Lake Huron temps ranging 22-26C), expect these clouds to persist into the evening, albeit more scattered in coverage, until winds weaken and turn more northwesterly overnight limiting low level moisture feed of the waters.
1127 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Showers should end this evening as a cold front push south of the area and brings a cooler and drier airmass.
140 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 High pressure will build into the region Sunday, provide more seasonable temperatures and lower relative humidity.