Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Sunday Night ) Not much to talk about weatherwise in the short term as high pressure will dominate the weather pattern both at the surface, and aloft in the form of subtle upper level ridging. At the surface, winds will become S/SWrly today into Sunday on the Wrn periphery of an expansive area of high pressure. Highs today should climb into the 50s with highs on Sunday about 10 degrees warmer than Saturday.
Dry weather and cooler temperatures will persist through today and tonight with breezy winds from out of the northeast becoming more mild overnight. High temperatures today will reach up into the lower 60s for much of the forecast area.
An upper low is nearly cut-off and spinning off the SoCal coastline. A neutral flow, or col, sets up over the central Rockies which may limit what could otherwise be a deeper lee trough over the region. With split flow generally in place, the colder air mass remains well north of the region and mainly southerly flow persists into the region allowing for overall warmer temperature bias for much of the period.
539 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 (Today through Sunday Night ) Not much to talk about weatherwise in the short term as high pressure will dominate the weather pattern both at the surface, and aloft in the form of subtle upper level ridging. At the surface, winds will become S/SWrly today into Sunday on the Wrn periphery of an expansive area of high pressure. Highs today should climb into the 50s with highs on Sunday about 10 degrees warmer than Saturday.
Temperatures have been slow to rise this morning under overcast skies with a short wave trough approaching the area.
Upper-level ridging will begin to rule starting late this morning keeping moisture at bay. Clouds will help limit radiational cooling resulting in warmer low temperatures than last night. /JNE/ With the upper trough moving east and upper ridging beginning to markedly amplify, a noticeable warm up gets underway Sunday.
531 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 (Today and tonight) As a low amplitude s/wv trough approaches from northern Mexico today, and a northern stream trough progresses eastward through the northern and central Rockies, lee surface cyclogenesis will continue through today. With the mid-high level cloud cover today, expect plenty of virga ahead of the s/wv trough, especially this afternoon across central into north central Oklahoma. With the westerly winds overnight, and another wave of high clouds progressing out of western trough, lows tonight are expected to stay above freezing with mostly upper 30s and lower 40s.
* A weak cold front will bring just a couple degrees of cooling Sunday with a wind switch to the northwest. Upper level ridging will translate eastward across the area today.
Discussion: Under weak ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface, a very pleasant day on tap for the entire forecast area, albeit temperatures will still be running cooler.
Currently, weak high pressure is situated over the forecast area, with low pressure over the lee of the Canadian and Northern Rockies. Seasonable (northeast) to mild (southwest) temperatures are expected today ranging from the upper 20s Turtle Mountains to the lower and possibly mid 40s far southwest. Lows tonight will range from the lower single digits Turtle Mountains, to the lower 20s southwest.
547 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 (Saturday through Sunday) Weak upper-level ridge across the region to shift east today allowing for flow to become southwest this afternoon through tonight into Sunday. At the surface, an area of cold high pressure that has been dominating the region over the past couple of days will remain in place through today. Light and variable winds this morning will take on a southerly component late this afternoon as the high begins to gradually nudge east. Overnight low temperatures to be considerably warmer in the upper 30s to lower 40s. An enhanced pressure gradient resulting from high pressure to the east and a deepening low across the Texas panhandle to bring increased south winds up to 15 mph on Sunday.
(Today through Sunday) A longwave trough is positioned roughly along the Atlantic Coast, and has just cleared north Georgia as it continues moving east. As the high pressure moves into Georgia, winds have diminished below Wind Advisory criteria. Winds are expected to continue to decrease as the center of the high moves over the forecast area. With strong diurnal mixing anticipated underneath the high, I ran on the lower side of guidance on dewpoints, leaning heavily towards CONSShort and hi-res solutions.
1253 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 (Issued 1253 PM ST Sat Feb 18 2023) Low pressure moving into srn Saskatchewan will gradually deepen to 995 MB as it reaches James Bay, Canada by late Sun afternoon. Sct-bkn high clouds will continue to stream over srn WI, although stratus may form Sun ahead of the cold front, if enough low level moisture is present. Temps will not fall too much tnt, then warm into the lower to middle 40s on Sun. Highs are currently expected to reach the low 40s.
Gusty sfc winds out of the west should back slowly/slightly to the SW by late afternoon as high pressure slides off well to the south of the region. Fair and dry conditions will prevail Sunday with the high-mid clouds rather thick in the morning, but sliding to the NE late in the day. This could keep maxes on the low end of guidance range. Even those numbers will still be well above normal as the high moves offshore and the S wind increases. Mainly clear sky Sun evening will cloud up by Mon morning as WAA increases the moisture overhead in advance of a trough/weak front which will pass through mid-late day on Mon. Large broad ridge over off the U.
Temperatues will be warmer this afternoon but will not necessarily feel that way given the clouds and wind.
322 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 Southerly flow on the back side of retreating high pressure will provide dry weather with a warming trend this weekend.
IR currently shows ample cloud cover across southwest Kansas extending off an upper level ridge to the west. As a result, leeside troughing has deepened over eastern Colorado with a strong pressure gradient across the high plains.
1125 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 (Today through Sunday Night ) Not much to talk about weatherwise in the short term as high pressure will dominate the weather pattern both at the surface, and aloft in the form of subtle upper level ridging. At the surface, winds will become S/SWrly today into Sunday on the Wrn periphery of an expansive area of high pressure. Highs today should climb into the 50s with highs on Sunday about 10 degrees warmer than Saturday.
The cold front that moved through early this morning has now stalled across the distant Straits of Florida.
1218 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 High pressure will build southeast of the region this afternoon into Sunday. A warm front will lift north of the area Sunday night.
1042 AM MST Sat Feb 18 2023 Upper-level flow is nearly zonal over the northern tier of states, while a low pressure system spins off the CA coast. At the surface, winds are light and westerly as a trough approaches from the NW. As its cold front slides through the Dakotas, some very light snow will be possible over portions of the area, with minimal accumulations expected.
Much warmer with clearing skies and highs in the 70s.
1155 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) This morning's surface analysis indicates a 1028 hPa high pressure extending across the Southeast and Southern Plains. Mostly clear skies and light winds associated with this anticyclone have allowed for temperatures to fall into the 30s-40s across South Texas. This area of high pressure is forecast to shift east-northeast over the next 36 hours. This will result in warmer temperatures tonight and Sunday.
High pressure both aloft and at the surface will dominate the weather resulting in sunny conditions for the remainder of the afternoon. These cloud will help keep low temperatures warmer than last night, but still on the cooler side and in the upper 30s area wide. This will aid in temperatures topping out 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today.
1132 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 (Today and tonight) As a low amplitude s/wv trough approaches from northern Mexico today, and a northern stream trough progresses eastward through the northern and central Rockies, lee surface cyclogenesis will continue through today. With the mid-high level cloud cover today, expect plenty of virga ahead of the s/wv trough, especially this afternoon across central into north central Oklahoma. With the westerly winds overnight, and another wave of high clouds progressing out of western trough, lows tonight are expected to stay above freezing with mostly upper 30s and lower 40s.
Sfc winds out of the west should back slowly/slightly to the SW by late afternoon as high pressure slides off well to the south of the region. Fair and dry conditions will prevail Sunday with the high-mid clouds sliding to the NE, but keeping the morning and early aftn hours rather cloudy. Highs will be warming to well above normal as the high moves offshore, reaching 45-55F. Large broad ridge over off the U.
Persistent warm advection and cloud cover will yield lows in the 40s, about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Saturday morning's lows.
Weak cold front has pushed through the Florida Keys this morning and is beginning to stall across the Straits of Florida. In addition, changes made to the going forecast was to go ahead and issue a Small Craft Advisory for our waters east of the Seven Mile Bridge and south of the island chain. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Hawk Channel and Straits of Florida east of the Seven Mile Bridge. A high pressure cell moving into the eastern U.
235 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 High pressure will settle to our south tonight, before progressing offshore tomorrow. Several areas of low pressure will track to our north over the upcoming week, leading to above normal temperatures. Flow aloft is zonal this afternoon, as high pressure settles to our south at the surface. Skies will start out mostly clear tonight, and with high pressure settling to our south, many locations may decouple this evening. With high pressure at the surface progressing offshore, winds will turn southerly, leading to a warming trend.
A weak cold front pushes through the area this evening, with winds increasing from the northwest overnight. The elevated winds and scattered high clouds will keep lows a touch more mild than last night, but still in the lower 20s. By tomorrow afternoon, a mid- level trough axis will swing across the northern Plains, with falling temperatures and quickly steepening lapse rates aloft.
1122 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 Temperatures this morning were below freezing for much of the area and with an abundance of mid and high level clouds currently over the area, think highs today may struggle to reach the upper 50s for northern portions of the CWA. High temperatures today are forecast in the low to mid 50s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, where the thicker cloud cover is in place, and upper 50s to low 60s elsewhere.
1239 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 Northern Michigan is between low pressure across north central Canada and high pressure centered across the Ohio Valley. It will be just a bit breezy with southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph and highs in the low to mid 30s. This drags a cold front that stalls out across Lake Superior and southern Ontario. temperatures will already be slowly rising before sunrise, and topping out in the low 30's in the afternoon.
High pressure will slide off to the east this afternoon with weak southerly low level flow returning to the area. Tonight will be about 15 degrees warmer than last night thanks to the southerly flow and thick high level cloud cover as a weak upper level disturbance races through the area.
Temperatures are near/above freezing in some areas of SW MT, so impacts from snowfall during the day should be on the lower side. This weekend, an upper level trof slides southeastward across the region. After this event, the area receives only a brief break, before the next upper level trof enters the region. As the week progresses, a deep upper level trof digs into the area.
1131 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 High pressure prevails across the region with sunshine and light winds. After a cold start this morning temps around warming through the 40s on their way to highs in the lower to mid 50s this afternoon.
1038 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 Temperatures this morning were below freezing for much of the area and with an abundance of mid and high level clouds currently over the area, think highs today may struggle to reach the upper 50s for northern portions of the CWA. High temperatures today are forecast in the low to mid 50s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, where the thicker cloud cover is in place, and upper 50s to low 60s elsewhere.
The low-ish clouds are gone from a morning peak. Sfc winds out of the west should back slowly/slightly to the SW by late afternoon as high pressure slides off well to the south of the region. Fair and dry conditions will prevail Sunday with the high-mid clouds sliding to the NE, but keeping the morning and early aftn hours rather cloudy. Highs will be warming to well above normal as the high moves offshore, reaching 45-55F.
Upper trough approaching from the northwest looks weaker than forecast yesterday, but still timed to pass through our CWA this afternoon and evening. Partial clearing from the northwest later tonight and not as cold due to more cloudiness than last night, and also due to mixing by the trough.
Another batch of arctic air will surge toward the region by mid week as a stronger upper trough traverses the central Rockies and supports widespread snow over the region, with appreciable accums increasingly likely.
102 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 Cool, dry high pressure will settle into the region today. Short wave ridge aloft across the area this afternoon. There will be mid and high level clouds advecting into the area ahead of short wave trough moving east of the Tennessee Valley late tonight. Models are also suggesting some strato-cumulus will advect northwest from the Low Country SC into the area toward daybreak. Expect the low temps to be in the mid 30s. As the airmass moderates some through the day, temperatures should be several degrees warmer than previous day. Highs in the low to mid 60s, with overnight lows Sunday night in the mid 40s. Mid-week temperatures will feel much more Springlike across the region as upper ridge south of the area extends further north.
Southerly winds have increased today as the ridge axis has moved eastward out of the forecast area. The pressure gradient tightens Sunday as low pressure moves into Western Ontario, strengthening southerly winds to 15-20 mph midday through the afternoon tomorrow with gusts up to 25-30 mph.
329 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 High pressure will give way to a coastal trough tonight into Sunday.
Ridging has settled into the area today and has no plans of going anywhere over the next 7 days. Winds will be slowly coming down through the afternoon and evening as the cold front that pushed through yesterday moves farther away from the area.
Sfc winds out of the west should back slowly/slightly to the SW by late afternoon as high pressure slides off well to the south of the region. Fair and dry conditions will prevail Sunday with the high-mid clouds sliding to the NE, but keeping the morning and early aftn hours rather cloudy. Highs will be warming to well above normal as the high moves offshore, reaching 45-55F.
Otherwise the high clouds will move out by tonight with Sunday starting off mostly sunny. Much lighter winds also expected on Sunday along with warmer temperatures aided by favorable westerly downslope, however more high clouds(mainly southern/eastern Kansas) look to spread back into Kansas Sunday afternoon as upper level jet intensifies aloft.
120 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 Dry weather can be expected through the weekend as high pressure passes overhead.
This will occur as a mid-level vort max (initially across southern AZ/NM and adjacent portions of northwest Mexico) lifts northeastward into southern KS/northern OK in the flow around a subtropical ridge retrograding across the southern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, light east-northeasterly winds will gradually transition to light south-southeasterly as the center of a high pressure cell shifts eastward to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast. Although a gradual increase in high- level cloud cover is anticipated later this afternoon ahead of the disturbance to our west, highs are still expected to range from the lower 50s in elevated terrain to the mid 50s in valley locations.
Otherwise, forecast is on track, with a nice day expected as an elongated ridge of high pressure remains over the region.
However, there will be no cold front associated with this wave, so no rain is expected. About the only impact it will have is to cause an increase in high clouds tonight into Sunday, and also to increase the low level wind field such that some occasionally breezy conditions could be seen in the plateau and the TN valley tomorrow during the day. Uncertainty still remains as to where the highest totals will occur, but localized flooding will be of concern in areas that see repeated, locally heavy rainfall due to saturated soils.
South to southwesterly flow will continue into the overnight hours tonight which will keep low temperatures warmer than last night. Lows tonight will range from the middle to upper 20s for most of the area, almost ten degrees warmer than last night. A weak clipper low pressure system will pass through Canada; well north of the forecast area, but an associated cold front will move through during the afternoon and evening. However, a secondary are of light precipitation may develop along the cold front as it moves through our southeast counties in the evening.
937 AM PST Sat Feb 18 2023 Fair and warmer weather will prevail today, with periods of mid to high level clouds ahead of a meandering closed low pressure off the coast of Baja.
255 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 Temperatures have warmed up above normal this afternoon into the lower to mid 50s with gusty south to southwest winds under a mostly sunny sky. 01 tonight, forecast soundings remain very dry in the low levels so I will keep just a chance of sprinkles in the forecast. There is good model agreement that a northern stream trough will move down through the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes bringing a cold front through the CWA on Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will be warmer yet with a warm start, southwesterly winds, and 850mb temps around 5C.
1110 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 Northern Michigan is between low pressure across north central Canada and high pressure centered across the Ohio Valley. It will be just a bit breezy with southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph and highs in the low to mid 30s. This drags a cold front that stalls out across Lake Superior and southern Ontario. temperatures will already be slowly rising before sunrise, and topping out in the low 30's in the afternoon.
118 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 High pressure will briefly bring conditions this afternoon. Cold front that ushered in the return to Winter has pushed well E and S of the FA as of this morning. Lows tonight will be in the low-mid 30s. Warmer temps make their return on Sunday with high around 60.
The general expected trend is for this area of snow to slowly translate toward the south and southeast, occasionally changing over to rain with warmer temperatures this afternoon. ---BMickelson Previous discussion: Today through Sunday morning, another extended lobe of low pressure spills down over the Rocky Mountains with another round of sprinkles or flurries across the region.
A southwest to almost westerly low-level flow ahead of a cold front, will result in much warmer temperatures on Sunday. Despite deeper mixing and warmer temperatures Sunday afternoon, mixing winds will be much lighter than the winds this afternoon.
The HRRR and ARW continue to promote isolated showers along the coast, at best, as the trough gets pushed eastward before it can deliver much rainfall, while the NAM Nest and FV3 are much more aggressive with scattered to even numerous light showers moving onshore and inland as far as the Orlando metro before getting kicked off to the east. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies, a gentle breeze, and overnight lows ranging from the low 50s up north to the low 60s down south. High pressure over the SE U. (00Z TAFS) VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period as high pressure builds over ECFL.
910 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 High pressure will settle to our south tonight, before progressing further offshore on Sunday. Several areas of low pressure will track to our north over the upcoming week, leading to above normal temperatures. High pressure has pushed just off of the southeast coast tonight and winds have generally turned out of the S/SSW as a result. With high pressure at the surface progressing offshore, winds will turn southerly, leading to a warming trend.
Latest near term model guidance suggests that the mid-level disturbance responsible for the aforementioned cloudiness will travel northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes by 12Z Sunday, with overcast skies and some virga (or perhaps a few sprinkles of rain) expected this evening.
However, we should still be able to radiate effectively for most of the night, leading to ridge/valley temperatures differences. The next cold front will advance southeast through the Midwest on Sunday, with the pressure gradient ahead of it maintaining our warm air advection. On Sunday night, the aforementioned cold front draws closer, and its broad supporting upper level trough amplifies over the CONUS.
Additional moisture and high clouds should keep overnight temperatures much warmer than last night, with lows progged to be in the 40s/50s across the region. Sunday will be another quiet day weather-wise as we find ourself with zonal flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere while a 591 dam midlevel ridge settles in over the Gulf of Mexico. This should bring warmer weather throughout the day as highs rise into the mid to lower 70s.
824 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 High pressure will continue across the CWA tonight. Thickening high clouds will help keep overnight mins several degrees warmer than last night. High pressure both aloft and at the surface will dominate the weather resulting in sunny conditions for the remainder of the afternoon. These cloud will help keep low temperatures warmer than last night, but still on the cooler side and in the upper 30s area wide. This will aid in temperatures topping out 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today.
344 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 Dry weather and warmer temperatures are on tap for Sunday.
949 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 High pressure drifting off the Delmarva Coast tonight will create a southwest flow of milder air and fair weather for the remainder of this weekend. Min temps in the 25-30F range will be 5-10F above climo, except for some of the rural valleys over the Susq Region and points east that will see lows in the lower 20s as a result of thinner cloud cover. This could keep maxes on the low end of guidance range. Even those numbers will still be well above normal as the high moves offshore and the S wind increases. Mainly clear sky Sun evening will cloud up by Mon morning as WAA increases the moisture overhead in advance of a trough/weak front which will pass through mid-late day on Mon. Large broad ridge over off the U.
A pair of storm systems will impact the region this coming week, with cooler air, gusty winds and periods of valley rain and mountain snow.
Latest UA and WV imagery shows an active subtropical jet on the forward flank of an upper low west of the Baja transporting moisture across the southern plains.
700 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 Southerly flow on the back side of retreating high pressure will provide dry weather with a warming trend this weekend.
553 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 Dry weather and warmer temperatures are on tap for Sunday.
531 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 Latest UA and WV imagery shows an active subtropical jet on the forward flank of an upper low west of the Baja transporting moisture across the southern plains.