Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1058 AM MST Sun Feb 12 2023 Slightly cooler airmass around today with a weak trough traversing the region today. Just east of I-25 will see highs in the 40s while the further east you go (better snow pack), highs will be slightly cooler in the low 40s,upper 30s. Denver Metro, west of I-25 benefits a bit more from the downslope component flow still which has kept temperatures on the warmer side comparatively. It is associated with weak upper troughing. Dry conditions are expected today and tonight with weak upper ridging in place.
919 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 The upper low that brought rain to northeast MS overnight is currently moving ENE across GA/SC, pulling away from the Mid- South.
As a result, cloud cover will increase tonight through tomorrow, which should help low temperatures only get down to the low 40s.
1240 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 (Today through Monday) Upper low pulling away quickly, near the Alabama-Georgia border at 09z. Elsewhere at the surface, high pressure extended from Illinois to Texas.
1121 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 A mid/upper ridge extends from south Texas northward across the Central and Northern Plains.
1131 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 The upper low that brought rain to northeast MS overnight is currently moving ENE across GA/SC, pulling away from the Mid- South.
(Rest of Today) Precipitation is winding down this morning across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee as an area of low pressure shifts from western Georgia into the Carolinas. Some light accumulations were noted, mainly on ridgetops along the Cumberland Plateau and Lookout and Sand Mountains above 1,000 ft. No impacts are occurring from this light snow as surface temperatures are remaining above freezing. With the sun in our favor, it will actually feel warmer than yesterday even with highs only reaching the low to mid 50s.
Temps have warmed once again will above freezing for forested areas of MN, with near 32 degree temps further west (and still warming). Some morning fog will slow the warmup today along with a slightly cooler airmass when comparing temps to yesterday. Will see highs in the low 30s along and west of the valley and low 40s in the forests of MN. On Monday temps will again climb into the mid and upper 30s along the valley and west with the trees again warming into the low to mid 40s.
(This afternoon through Monday) A low pressure system will continue to move east this afternoon while a high pressure system in the Gulf strengthens and move northwest towards the panhandle of Florida. Winds will be northwesterly this afternoon around the low pressure. advecting cooler and drier air into the state. A tight pressure gradient on the back side of this low will continue through the evening. dry weather and mostly clear skies will allow for ample cooling with low temperatures in the low to mid 30s. flow will shift to a more westerly direction around the high pressure in the Gulf and warmer air will advect into the state.
Otherwise, seasonable temperatures are expected tonight with lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s as a cold front moves through much of area by Monday morning.
Quiet, dry, and above normal temperatures will be seen as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
Current observations show temperatures in the lower 70s throughout the Keys and winds ranging from 15 to 20 mph. These clouds will continue to advect through the region and keep temperatures from rising above the lower 70s.
1108 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 (Rest of Today) Precipitation is winding down this morning across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee as an area of low pressure shifts from western Georgia into the Carolinas. Some light accumulations were noted, mainly on ridgetops along the Cumberland Plateau and Lookout and Sand Mountains above 1,000 ft. No impacts are occurring from this light snow as surface temperatures are remaining above freezing. With the sun in our favor, it will actually feel warmer than yesterday even with highs only reaching the low to mid 50s.
Saw a few pics of snow in Grundy County and even some freezing rain on Short Mountain. However, if there is some lingering wetness, overnight lows are expected to drop below freezing with the clear skies and relaxing winds, so some patchy ice is possible across our southeast counties.
Overnight into this morning a cold front passed through the Florida Keys bringing in cooler temperatures of near 70 and pleasant dew points in the lower 60s. Dry air has returned post cold front resulting in nil PoPs going into tonight. Temperatures are expected to decreasing gradually through the day becoming in the lower 60s in the Lower and Middles Keys, and mid to upper 50s in the Upper Keys. Breezes will slacken tonight through Monday as high pressure builds into the southeastern United States and low pressure system races eastward into the Atlantic waters.
(The rest of today ) Warmer temperatures in store for the forecast area today with stronger W-SW in place.
(Tonight) In wake of the cold front, dry air has quickly filtered into the area as seen by the sky clearing off and dewpoints dropping into the mid to upper 20s in north Alabama and the Teens across portions of western Tennessee. The clear/calm conditions and dry air mass will allow for good radiational cooling as temperatures will drop into the lower 30s late tonight into early Monday morning.
(This afternoon through Monday) Prevailing upper-level ridge will maintain dry conditions through Monday.
(Rest of today through Monday) Cold front crossed South Florida this morning, bringing an end to the rain and ushering in drier air that will be in place for much of the upcoming week. Partly to mostly cloudy skies remain today as low/mid level moisture continues to wrap around the upper level low over the southeast states. High pressure building in from the northern Gulf will switch the flow from W to NW which will further enhance the cooler air into the area. Plenty of sunshine and continued cooler on Monday. High temps will be roughly 5 degrees below normal for mid February, ranging from the low to mid 70s across all of South Florida.
An upper level ridge will remain overhead today and bring mostly sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures near normal. A cold front will move through our area on Monday, bringing snow and gusty winds.
323 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 A low pressure system will depart to the northeast tonight.
Clear and cool tonight, but warmer tomorrow with low 60s in most places across the mid-state. Surface temperatures have fallen into the mid to upper 30s in the higher elevations on the Cumberland Plateau and they may drop another couple of degrees before sunrise, but based on models soundings, precip should remain in liquid form this morning. After precip exits, most of the area will be able to warm into the low 50s, with the exception of the Plateau, where temperatures will remain cool and in the 40s. Much drier air and mostly clear skies will move overhead tonight, allowing temperatures to fall to around freezing for most of the area, but the daytime hours on Monday look very nice as southerly surface winds and weak ridging aloft bring a warmup into the low to mid 60s.
Little has changed with the upcoming trough and cold fronts. The wind profile ahead of the cold front continues to show downslope warming and drying in most of the valleys on Monday, so mountain snow remains the main focus for snow until Monday afternoon and evening. As the cold front reaches Granite, Powell, Deer Lodge, Silver Bow and Lemhi counties, snow levels are expected to quickly lower along with periods of moderate to heavy snow, causing low visibility and quickly changing travel conditions.
Precipitation to end this evening as upper low continues moving away. Monday a trough will be swinging by to our north while a ridge west of us will begin building and then bring height rises into eastern Tennessee.
922 AM MST Sun Feb 12 2023 MORNING UPDATE: Not much update to today's temperature except for the Yellowstone River Valley, where I bumped up the high temperatures basis the latest observations already being in the mid 30s. -Enriquez PREVIOUS Update: Brief northwesterly flow today between a departing Canadian trough and a building ridge in Alberta will keep things pleasant with high temperatures about 10 degrees above average. Then on Monday this ridge will pass over our area producing high temperatures a good 20 degrees above normal area wide. For both today and tomorrow have blended in warmer high temperatures as actual highs have been running higher than what the NBM has been producing.
245 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 Another pleasant mid February afternoon is underway across the area as abundant sunshine is helping temperatures top out into the lower 50s. Higher level cloudiness will increase across the area this evening in advance of an approaching mid-level disturbance and a weak surface frontal trough. Winds will turn westerly and skies will clear early Monday morning following the passage of this weak surface frontal trough. This will set up another sunny and unseasonably mild day across the area for Monday as the airmass cools little in the wake of this frontal trough.
1120 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 (The rest of today ) Warmer temperatures in store for the forecast area today with stronger W-SW in place.
354 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 Dry weather continues into Monday before an upper level disturbance tracks overhead resulting in some snow showers overnight, especially for the high terrain.
A deep, closed upper low continues to slowly push through the southeast US as another closed low slowly digs along the CA coast, currently centered just offshore near southern CA and the northern Baja Peninsula.
Skies will also gradually clear out overnight as the area of low pressure lifts off to the NE and high pressure builds in from the west. The cooler and drier air will settle into the area, with lows tonight and Monday night around 40 north to the lower 50s along the coast and south, with mid to upper 40s inland. Highs Monday in the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south.
513 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 Another pleasant mid February afternoon is underway across the area as abundant sunshine is helping temperatures top out into the lower 50s. Higher level cloudiness will increase across the area this evening in advance of an approaching mid-level disturbance and a weak surface frontal trough. Winds will turn westerly and skies will clear early Monday morning following the passage of this weak surface frontal trough. This will set up another sunny and unseasonably mild day across the area for Monday as the airmass cools little in the wake of this frontal trough.
A low pressure system will move across northwestern Mexico tonight and produce damaging wind gusts in the Sierra Nevada above 7000 feet through this evening.
743 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm weather is expected across central Illinois on Monday with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 50s.
(Tonight) Quiet/near seasonal wx conditions prevail across the mid TN Valley this Sun evening, as high pressure continues to build eastward into the central Gulf region. A weak upper ridge axis is also moving into the central Gulf Coast states, which is aiding with the quiet wx pattern. There's quite a range in dew point temps as well, with predom mid/upper 30s readings east down into the lower/mid 20s west. This influx of drier air out of the west should offset the prob for much in the way of fog early Mon morning, as lows fall mainly into the lower 30s/near 30F for most spots.
dry weather and mostly clear skies will allow for ample cooling with low temperatures in the low to mid 30s. flow will shift to a more westerly direction around the high pressure in the Gulf and warmer air will advect into the state.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed a weak area of low pressure over central Upper MI, high pressure that stretched from the mid- MS Valley to the eastern Great Lakes and a cold front that extended from eastern Manitoba southwest through eastern ND. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to move across the region on Monday, bringing more sunshine and mild conditions to the forecast area. Max temperatures are expected to be similar to Sunday's, perhaps a degree or two cooler. This would still have readings range from the lower to middle 40s for most locations, middle to upper 40s over east-central WI with the higher values west of the Fox Valley.
510 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm weather is expected across central Illinois on Monday with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 50s.
Winds will continue to gradually diminish through the remainder of the evening and overnight as the pressure gradient weakens with high pressure building in from the west. Skies will also gradually clear out overnight as the area of low pressure lifts off to the NE and high pressure builds in from the west. The cooler and drier air will settle into the area, with lows tonight and Monday night around 40 north to the lower 50s along the coast and south, with mid to upper 40s inland. Highs Monday in the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south.
Meanwhile, a closed upper low will slide over the Carolinas tonight as a second wave pivots over Baja California. A weak, moisture-starved cold front associated with the aforementioned cyclone will swing across northern Michigan late tonight and will bring increasing cloud cover, especially across eastern upper.
537 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 (This afternoon through Monday) Prevailing upper-level ridge will maintain dry conditions through Monday.
Mild weather occurring today will transition to cool and windy during Monday as a strong cold front moves south across the region.
329 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm weather is expected across central Illinois on Monday with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 50s.
510 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 (Tonight) In wake of the cold front, dry air has quickly filtered into the area as seen by the sky clearing off and dewpoints dropping into the mid to upper 20s in north Alabama and the Teens across portions of western Tennessee. The clear/calm conditions and dry air mass will allow for good radiational cooling as temperatures will drop into the lower 30s late tonight into early Monday morning.
210 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2023 The 500mb low in the Gulf of Alaska that will bring eastern Montana its next chance for snowfall is beginning to make its way through British Columbia toward the western US, filling into more of a trough in the process. Most of that energy associated with the trough axis will traverse the Pacific Northwest on Monday. Models are in good agreement that this trough will eventually cutoff from the main upper level flow and deepen into a closed 500mb low on its journey into the Four Corners region. For our CWA, locations closer to the Missouri River have slight chances of a wintry mix of rain and snow, a brief period of freezing rain.
However, will see winds remain elevated at around 10mph overnight, despite the relaxing pressure gradient as the low pressure over the Carolinas pushes into the Atlantic. Far northern portions of Lake County and northwestern portions of Volusia County will see temperatures fall into the lower 40s.
A flat ridge aloft will keep rain chances out of the forecast tonight through Monday.
A deep, closed upper low continues to slowly push through the southeast US as another closed low slowly digs along the CA coast, currently centered just offshore near southern CA and the northern Baja Peninsula. The aforementioned upper low near southern CA will eject into the central Plains Tuesday with another potent upper wave (currently west of the British Columbia coast) digging immediately in its wake.
300 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2023 Dry conditions will continue before widespread rain chances return with passing low pressure late in the week.
With the clearing and cooler conditions, some fog has developed mainly near water bodies and cooler valley locations due to this saturation near ground. Surface dew points should fall later tonight and are expected to be a few degrees below the lows in most places. Due to the cooler temperature trend, also lowered the overnight lows a few degrees mainly in the north. flow will shift to a more westerly direction around the high pressure in the Gulf and warmer air will advect into the state.
Despite the lower winds, onshore breaking waves will keep the risk of rip currents high today.
1010 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 (Tonight) Quiet/near seasonal wx conditions prevail across the mid TN Valley this Sun evening, as high pressure continues to build eastward into the central Gulf region. A weak upper ridge axis is also moving into the central Gulf Coast states, which is aiding with the quiet wx pattern. There's quite a range in dew point temps as well, with predom mid/upper 30s readings east down into the lower/mid 20s west. This influx of drier air out of the west should offset the prob for much in the way of fog early Mon morning, as lows fall mainly into the lower 30s/near 30F for most spots.
328 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2023 The deep upper low that tracked across the Gulf States the last few days is now over the Atlantic Ocean and riding up the East Coast.
Key Messages: -Chance to likely POPS are in place along and east of highway 83 Tuesday for rain, potentially mixing with or changing to wet snow with passage of a cold front.
245 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2023 A weak cold front passes through the area this evening followed by high pressure and warmer temperatures for Tuesday.
Temperatures remain on the cooler side of normal for this time of year by a few degrees. As we get into tomorrow afternoon, attention turns to the next weather system as a trough digs out of British Columbia and moves over the region by daybreak Tuesday. Wind will be a concern, especially in the Magic Valley and into the lower Snake Plain as well as the more wind prone locations across the Albion Mountains.
Models forecast that the western low will move onshore going into the evening hours with the CWA gaining a westerly flow aloft as a ridge moves over the northwestern CONUS. Tonight's overnight lows expect to be in the lower to middle 20s. On Monday, forecast guidance projects the southwestern low moving eastward over the AZ/NM border by the evening hours, the upper air ridge moving over the Northern Plains, and the CWA gaining a southwesterly upper air flow by the evening that turns more southerly overnight.
Additionally, lift provided by the low will quickly saturate the atmosphere over Oklahoma.
/26/ (This afternoon through Monday) Prevailing upper-level ridge will maintain dry conditions through Monday.
1103 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm weather is expected across central Illinois on Monday with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 50s. Temperatures should stay near or just above freezing for lows over most of the forecast area, except northwest of the Illinois River due to the earlier boundary passage. Once the trough passes, a return to mostly sunny and warm conditions is anticipated for Monday as highs once again climb into the lower to middle 50s. The parent upper low is evident on 21z/3pm water vapor imagery spinning off the coast of Baja California. In addition, high pressure initially along the Gulf Coast will allow minimal northward moisture return.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: The 500mb low in the Gulf of Alaska that will bring eastern Montana its next chance for snowfall is beginning to make its way through British Columbia toward the western US, filling into more of a trough in the process. Most of that energy associated with the trough axis will traverse the Pacific Northwest on Monday. Models are in good agreement that this trough will eventually cutoff from the main upper level flow and deepen into a closed 500mb low on its journey into the Four Corners region. For our CWA, locations closer to the Missouri River have slight chances of a wintry mix of rain and snow, a brief period of freezing rain.
356 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2023 Dry weather is expected today and tonight as a weak trough pushes into high pressure.
A flat ridge aloft will keep rain chances out of the forecast tonight through Monday. This is in response to an approaching upper level low swinging across northern Mexico Monday and lifting northeast across TX Monday night. This will lead to a tightening of the pressure gradient across S TX, which will increase the low level jet to 40-45 knots. The strengthening southerly low level flow will usher deeper moisture and warmer temperatures into the area through Monday night.
A low pressure system near the Carolina coast continues to drive northeastward. Much of the cold air associated with the low has largely remained wrapped up further north of our area. This will also open up a small window for some earnestly cooler air flowing down through the Keys. Through the overnight, the low will race northeastward further away from our area and correspondingly, winds will trend sharply downwards.
While the airmass aloft is cooler then previous days, it still seems likely that temps will exceed most or all guidance in some locations. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the desert sw, a trough in the Pacific NW and a trough in the lower Great Lakes 12z Mon. The troughs in the west head east with the closed low moving into the central plains 12z Tue with a trough in the western U. By 00z Wed, the closed low opens up and becomes negatively tilted over the upper Mississippi river Valley while the trough moves into the Rockies. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the plains and southern Rockies 12z Thu. This trough heads northeast into the lower Great Lakes 12z Fri.
349 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Yesterday's low pressure system has moved up the coast and is now offshore just east of the DELMARVA peninsula. A high pressure center is over the central GOMEX. This high pressure will be the main weather-maker for the CWA through the remainder of the short term period.
Cool, dry northwest flow will continue with mid-upper level ridging situated over the Gulf. Tonight, high pressure overhead will yield clear skies and light/calm winds which will allow for good radiational cooling.
Tomorrow morning will be a few degrees cooler in the morning, but will warm up quickly with highs right around 80.
rain chances steadily decrease from west to east during the day as the upper low lifts northeast into Iowa. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 40s to lower 50s. For the overnight hours, we should be dry through early evening initially in a lull precipitation wise until moisture associated with a closed upper low over the four corners area gets into far eastern Colorado and adjacent counties in northwest Kansas/extreme southwest Nebraska.
On the forecast track, high pressure currently over the central Gulf of Mexico will slowly slide east today. This high pressure will continue eastward over the coming days, eventually settling across the western North Atlantic.
Temperatures will remain mild but may be a tad cooler than yesterday due to the influence of northwesterly flow.
(Today through Tuesday) High clouds have begun to push into S TX this morning as a low pressure system approaches the state from the SW CONUS. Expect cloud cover to increase through the afternoon and evening hours as the low gets closer to the area. In addition to increasing cloud cover, the approaching low pressure will cause the pressure gradient to tighten, resulting in gusty winds. There is a slight (~20%) chance of showers over the Victoria Crossroads Monday night ahead of an incoming Pacific front associated with the exiting low pressure. Highs for Tuesday will be warmer as temperatures reach into the upper 70s to low 80s further west.
Then a band of rain is expected to form across extreme western Kansas Tuesday morning on the back side of the upper level trough, and then progress toward the I-70 corridor by mid-day.