Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1140 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 Quiet and mild weather continues over the Ohio Valley today as high pressure builds over Missouri under an expanding upper ridge. High pressure advancing from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley will keep winds light and temperatures seasonable today and tonight. Surface RH will likely bottom out in the 25-35% range this afternoon with high temperatures in the lower and middle 60s.
1243 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2023 An upper level ridge over the region today is moving east and will give way to zonal flow by Tuesday. The exit of the ridge is resulting in backing mid level flow, causing wind gusts of 35-45 mph in the Livingston area today.
932 AM PST Mon Nov 13 2023 Dry and warm for the next few days before a cloudier, wetter, and slightly cooler pattern prevails for the end of the week.
Highs today reach the low to mid 50s, with breezy conditions this afternoon as winds gust to around 25 mph. A mostly dry and mild week is underway as a split upper level jet over the central CONUS with ridging over the Midwest today keeps seasonably warm air in place. Temperatures may dip below freezing tonight in the typically cooler spots away from Lake Michigan.
(The rest of today ) As high pressure prevails across the region, another sunny/mostly sunny day is on tap across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
150 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2023 A deepening area of cutoff low pressure continues to drop south along the West Coast this afternoon, while high pressure continues to dominate over the center of the country. Sandwiches between these two features, the Great Basin and Four Corners region remains under southwest flow aloft with the associated warm air advection helping temperatures climb into the upper 50s and low 60s for the lower valleys, and into the upper 40s to low 50s for the mountain towns. As the Pacific cutoff low continues to spin off the West Coast, the more mobile trough in the northern stream storm track will be moving across the Canadian Prairie Provinces through the day tomorrow.
Upper ridging translates east tonight leaving southwest flow aloft for Tuesday.
Winds will turn around to south-southwesterly on Tuesday, so after the cool start to the day, looking at another sunny and unseasonably pleasant afternoon with highs in the lower 60s to locally mid 60s. This is a bit above guidance considering the low temp bias of late.
Tuesday night these showers will diminish, although periods of light rain will continue through the week as this low slowly moves east through California. The upper level low off the coast is continuing to slowly drop south and is now pulling the front off the coast. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected on many of the ridges around the area and along the Mendocino coast.
534 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Upper level trough is continuing to slide from west to east with light to moderate rain pushing east and northeast across the region.
213 PM PST Mon Nov 13 2023 Dry and warm for the next few days before a cloudier, wetter, and slightly cooler pattern prevails for the end of the week.
Clouds are beginning to expand across portions of western Oklahoma with the approach of the upper level trough into the region. With the increased cloud cover across portions of north Texas and southern/central Oklahoma, low temperatures will be tempered in those areas, with lows in the low to mid 40s. As the upper level trough begins to exit to the east, skies will clear through Tuesday, with high temperatures across the region in the upper 60s/low 70s.
629 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure remains in control across the region through the week maintaining dry weather and gradually moderating temperatures. Drier air works in through the day under the ridge, though there will likely be a deck of stratocumulus across our northern zones trapped under a building subsidence inversion in the typical cold advection northwesterly flow regime. 850 mb flow of 25-35 knots should support gusts of 25-30 mph especially in the morning hours in the higher terrain and near the coast. The high will move closer overhead Tuesday evening and result in efficient radiational cooling conditions with mostly clear skies and less wind.
625 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure and dry weather will remain in control through mid week. A weak dry cold front will move across the region tonight bringing in another wave a cool dry air for tonight and tomorrow. Expect light and variable winds tonight as the front moves across the region and high pressure builds in behind. Upper-level ridging will build from west to east across the Mid- Atlantic throughout the day on Tuesday, while a weak upper low traverses east across the Deep South. At the surface, high pressure will build east across the Mid-Atlantic, which will generate northerly flow across central NC throughout the day. High temperatures will rise to near seasonal normals, with highs in the low to mid-60s, then temps drop to the 30s overnight.
A low pressure system will bring periods of mountain snow and valley rain this week and into the weekend. Another mild and seasonably warm day in store today for the Sierra and western Nevada, courtesy of weak ridging aloft. We're still closely monitoring the potential for unsettled weather later in the week, which all hinges on the progression of a Pacific low pressure system. Consensus among ensembles is for a Pacific trough to detach from the mean synoptic flow and evolve into a compact upper low that churns in the eastern Pacific for several days. A caveat is that it appears that the center of the upper low is a bit further south in the eastern Pacific then what is shown in the 12Z suite of global models, possibly suggesting the storm is progressing quicker than expected.
High pressure builds in tomorrow, with the middle of the week expected to be mild and dry. As surface temperatures fall into the mid and upper 30s, a subsidence inversion drops with upper level ridging building in tonight. Ridging builds in tomorrow though low level flow stays out of the NW. The 850 mb ridge axis lags behind the upper level ridge and does not swing through till closer to the late afternoon, so that is likely when most of the low clouds will finally clear. Quiet conditions are expected during this period as high pressure remains in control.
549 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure will build into the area during this forecast period and provide VFR conditions.
940 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 Upslope and lake effect rain or snow showers associated with an upper level disturbance will continue through tonight before gradually ending on Tuesday as a high pressure system builds into the region.
626 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week, leading to dry and seasonably mild conditions. Cooler conditions arrive for the weekend. Temperatures are in the low to mid 60s area wide this afternoon despite a weak cold front moving through the area. The air mass is very dry likely limiting the ability for fog to develop, but can't rule out patchy fog across west-central Ohio beneath the high pressure and in the Ohio River and lower Scioto River basins. The center of the high pressure shifts to the east on Tuesday, allowing light and variable flow to eventually become easterly or southeasterly during the afternoon.
No real big changes to the expected temps on Tuesday, with the highest temps in the 60s and 70s expected over the plains.
539 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 (Tonight) High cirrus will continue to increase over the area this evening and overnight streaming from low pressure along the Gulf Coast.
536 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Broad upper level ridge with upper level clouds streaming easterly across the Northern Plains region, thanks to embedded mid level energy within the flow aloft. A large ridge across the CONUS has a thermal ridge building in the Northern Plains today. At the surface there is a low pressure nudging into the state, squeezing winds between the low and the high leaving the eastern part of the state. This is also enhancing the mixing, pulling the warmer 850mb temperatures down. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 30s with the thermal ridge still overhead.
938 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 Upslope and lake effect rain or snow showers associated with an upper level disturbance will continue through tonight before gradually ending on Tuesday as a high pressure system builds into the region.
Warmer than normal, dry conditions will last through later in the week.
919 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week, leading to dry and seasonably mild conditions. Cooler conditions arrive for the weekend. The air mass is very dry likely limiting the ability for fog to develop, but can't rule out patchy fog across west-central Ohio beneath the high pressure and in the Ohio River and lower Scioto River basins. The center of the high pressure shifts to the east on Tuesday, allowing light and variable flow to eventually become easterly or southeasterly during the afternoon.
Latest GOES-18 imagery depicts increasing cloud cover ahead of the low pressure system making its slow trek to the CA coastline.
High pressure builds in tomorrow, with the middle of the week exoected to be mild and dry. As surface temperatures fall into the mid and upper 30s, a subsidence inversion drops with upper level ridging building in tonight. Ridging builds in tomorrow though low level flow stays out of the NW. The 850 mb ridge axis lags behind the upper level ridge and does not swing through till closer to the late afternoon, so that is likely when most of the low clouds will finally clear. Quiet conditions are expected during this period as high pressure remains in control.
604 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Dreary conditions continue across SE Texas this afternoon as an upper level trough axis sweeps across the western half of the state, providing broad lift for light showers. Most of this rainfall will be focused along and south of the I-10 corridor, on the peripheral of a coastal trough where PWs range from 1. The tight pressure gradient from this coastal trough has also brought moderate to strong northeasterly winds along the coastline, ranging from 20- 30 MPH with occasional higher gusts. Rain chances and winds speeds decrease overnight as the aforementioned coastal trough drifts eastward into the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Rain chances taper off of Tuesday as the upper level trough axis pushes east of the state while PWs drop to under an inch.
A Pacific weather system will bring a chance of rain late in the week and into the weekend along with cooler temperatures. A broad southwesterly flow over southeast Arizona today, with a ridge downstream and a strong low digging off the west coast. A weak low dirtying up the ridge over Texas continues to wrap a weak cu field into eastern border areas. This will likely end up being a near cut- off position as the low loses much of it's higher latitude support by mid week.
Drier weather and above average temperatures will persist as the ridging that has affected the region remains in place through Tuesday. As the ridge shifts east, it will give way to a gale force low that will move southward from the Gulf of Alaska to usher in cooler temperatures and an unsettled weather pattern through the week. A deep low-pressure system located just south of the Gulf of Alaska is interacting with an upper- level ridge that is centered over the four corners region, causing a strong belt of southwest wind aloft, allowing for increased moisture to funnel over the state.
533 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 (The rest of this afternoon ) Weak upper trough will continue to drift east across the SC CONUS tonight.
401 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2023 A deepening area of cutoff low pressure continues to drop south along the West Coast this afternoon, while high pressure continues to dominate over the center of the country. Sandwiches between these two features, the Great Basin and Four Corners region remains under southwest flow aloft with the associated warm air advection helping temperatures climb into the upper 50s and low 60s for the lower valleys, and into the upper 40s to low 50s for the mountain towns. As the Pacific cutoff low continues to spin off the West Coast, the more mobile trough in the northern stream storm track will be moving across the Canadian Prairie Provinces through the day tomorrow.
After fairly similar overnight temps to last night, expect Tue afternoon highs several degrees cooler than today in the more stable regime.
405 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 Upslope and lake effect rain or snow showers associated with an upper level disturbance and warm front will continue through this tonight before gradually coming to an end on Tuesday as a high pressure system builds into the region.
Temperatures peaked in the lower 80s earlier, and current temperature readings are generally near 80 degrees. Two areas of low pressure are forecast to develop; one in the northwestern Gulf and the other in the southwestern Caribbean. As this low transits eastward along the northern Gulf Coast, it will pull deep tropical moisture northward across our area, beginning Tuesday night.
Southern jet stream upper trough continues to push dynamics and moisture into the developing surface system in the W Gulf connected with the stalled frontal boundary over S FL and S Gulf of Mexico. The front is across south FL with high pressure in place across the area.
943 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2023 A deepening area of cutoff low pressure continues to drop south along the West Coast this afternoon, while high pressure continues to dominate over the center of the country. Sandwiches between these two features, the Great Basin and Four Corners region remains under southwest flow aloft with the associated warm air advection helping temperatures climb into the upper 50s and low 60s for the lower valleys, and into the upper 40s to low 50s for the mountain towns. As the Pacific cutoff low continues to spin off the West Coast, the more mobile trough in the northern stream storm track will be moving across the Canadian Prairie Provinces through the day tomorrow.
1045 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Upper level trough is continuing to slide from west to east with light to moderate rain pushing east and northeast across the region.
A low pressure system in the western Gulf continues to produce convection offshore near TX. Otherwise no weather impacts are expected through the overnight hours with lows tonight dropping down into the low to mid 40s.
Low temperatures tonight are forecast to be 3 to 5 degrees warmer compared to last night's thanks to this cloud cover and increasing surface moisture. Forecast confidence is high in regards to an upper-level low developing off the California coast during this time, however, as it breaks off from the main jet stream towards the north, the timing, moisture availability, and overall strength of the low remains in question.
The trend has been cooler than the NBM the last few nights and I think that will be the case again tonight. Cloud cover will likely be thickest over our southern counties, so they may remain a tad warmer than the rest of the area.
1139 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Dreary conditions continue across SE Texas this afternoon as an upper level trough axis sweeps across the western half of the state, providing broad lift for light showers. Most of this rainfall will be focused along and south of the I-10 corridor, on the peripheral of a coastal trough where PWs range from 1. The tight pressure gradient from this coastal trough has also brought moderate to strong northeasterly winds along the coastline, ranging from 20- 30 MPH with occasional higher gusts. Rain chances and winds speeds decrease overnight as the aforementioned coastal trough drifts eastward into the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Rain chances taper off of Tuesday as the upper level trough axis pushes east of the state while PWs drop to under an inch.
100 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2023 Aviation/Marine Very quiet weather is expected tonight as high pressure builds into the region from the west. Tonight, temperatures could dip below freezing inland of the lake, especially our normal cool spots, as clear skies allow for radiational cooling. Ridging keeps temperatures seasonably warm Tuesday (normal highs are in the upper forties) with highs in the fifties continuing. Winds decrease into Tuesday with high pressure moving into the area, although gustier conditions to around 20 knots will be present near the lakeshore due to the influence of the marine boundary layer.
(Today) Upper low currently sitting over North Texas will shift eastward during the day today, resulting in clearing skies over the region and near persistent conditions continuing from the previous few days. after a cool start, mild afternoon highs in the lower 70s can be expected for most locations.
CMiller (Issued 235 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023) Tonight through Tuesday night: Mostly clear skies will continue this evening under high pressure, with high level clouds moving in later tonight into Tuesday, especially across the northern half of the forecast area.
1245 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2023 Upslope and lake effect rain or snow showers associated with an upper level disturbance will continue this morning before gradually ending by the afternoon, as a high pressure system builds into the region.
Broad upper level ridge with upper level clouds streaming easterly across the Northern Plains region, thanks to embedded mid level energy within the flow aloft. A large ridge across the CONUS has a thermal ridge building in the Northern Plains today. At the surface there is a low pressure nudging into the state, squeezing winds between the low and the high leaving the eastern part of the state. This is also enhancing the mixing, pulling the warmer 850mb temperatures down. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 30s with the thermal ridge still overhead.
1026 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2023 A deepening area of cutoff low pressure continues to drop south along the West Coast this afternoon, while high pressure continues to dominate over the center of the country. Sandwiches between these two features, the Great Basin and Four Corners region remains under southwest flow aloft with the associated warm air advection helping temperatures climb into the upper 50s and low 60s for the lower valleys, and into the upper 40s to low 50s for the mountain towns. As the Pacific cutoff low continues to spin off the West Coast, the more mobile trough in the northern stream storm track will be moving across the Canadian Prairie Provinces through the day tomorrow.
For this reason, there is a fairly high probability of staying above freezing overnight tonight. This has helped to keep temperatures cooler this afternoon. Within the southern Red River Valley, temperatures reach into the lower 60s with a few locations reaching the mid 60s closer to the SD border. A weak frontal boundary moves through by the evening hours tomorrow ushering in NW winds and cooler temperatures for tomorrow night.
Mid evening surface analysis had a ridge to our northwest and a low over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery showed the circulation around a sharp upper level trough over the southern Plains. Regional radars suggest the measurable precipitation will take until after midnight to spread north back along the Highway 84 corridor. Widespread clouds & rain, with some sfc winds, will keep lows some 5-10 degrees above normal in the low-mid 50s. Leaned towards raw consensus of lows some 5-10 degrees above normal in the low to mid 50s. Sfc pressure gradient will begin to tighten between deepening coastal low & high pressure to the north, so northeasterly winds will persist but be gustier into the aftn hours.
A low pressure system near the west coast could send enough moisture into Harney County for a slight chance (less than 20 percent) of showers late in the afternoon.
1142 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure will maintain VFR conditions this forecast with only some increased cirrus streaming into the area.
242 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2023 High pressure and dry weather will remain in control through mid week.
1230 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week, leading to dry and seasonably mild conditions. Cooler conditions arrive for the weekend. The air mass is very dry likely limiting the ability for fog to develop, but can't rule out patchy fog across west-central Ohio beneath the high pressure and in the Ohio River and lower Scioto River basins. The center of the high pressure shifts to the east on Tuesday, allowing light and variable flow to eventually become easterly or southeasterly during the afternoon.
A broad and expansive area of high pressure is situated across the Great Lakes and is nosing down the Florida Peninsula. Temperatures are in the upper 70s with dew points in the lower 70s. From synopsis: A high pressure system will continue to build over the Eastern Seaboard. This along with low pressures in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico will result in fresh northeasterly to easterly breezes for early this week.
1038 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 Update Very quiet weather is expected tonight as high pressure builds into the region from the west. Tonight, temperatures could dip below freezing inland of the lake, especially our normal cool spots, as clear skies allow for radiational cooling. Ridging keeps temperatures seasonably warm Tuesday (normal highs are in the upper forties) with highs in the fifties continuing. Winds decrease into Tuesday with high pressure moving into the area, although gustier conditions to around 20 knots will be present near the lakeshore due to the influence of the marine boundary layer.
Discussion: For today, ridging surface and aloft will remain across the area with very dry air.
thin spots in the high clouds at times will lead to some areas getting more sun than others.
356 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week, leading to dry and seasonably mild conditions. Cooler conditions arrive for the weekend.
448 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Current water vapor satellite imagery positions 500 mb low pressure centered over the Lone Star State, with drier air steadily moving into the BRO CWFA from the west. As the aforementioned low steadily moves east into the Florida Panhandle, a mid-level ridge of high pressure will build over Mexico in its wake.
GOES-East Mid-level Water Vapor imagery indicates the axis of the trough responsible for the wet weather over the past few days is currently centered over South Texas. The trough will progress eastward along the Gulf Coast today and midlevel subsidence in the wake of the trough will contribute to drier conditions and temperates gradually warming to near normal on Wednesday. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the high chance of minor coastal flooding occurring along Gulf facing beaches beginning this afternoon and continuing through late this evening.
This disturbance is responsible for the high clouds moving overhead currently but by midmorning these clouds will have dissipated giving way to mostly sunny skies for all of eastern UT and western CO. Synoptically speaking, a closed low has setup off the central California coast while a large amplitude ridge has set up over the Great Lakes into Canada. Wednesday, the cutoff low will keep spinning off the West Coast as circulation around the low will tap into some moisture and stream into the area.