Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong shortave trough crossing the MS Valley region will help to temporarily weaken the strong subtropical ridge, and this will allow a cold front to push into northern portions of the area by this evening, and eventually through the area by daybreak Tuesday. Ahead of the front, strong mixing and westerly low level flow will intensify the thermal trough with H850 temperatures reaching ~25C. Values this high at that level are very rare in our region, and if realized, would correlate with surface temperatures that could approach all-time highs.
725 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 High pressure will prevail through today. A cold front will drop into the area late Tuesday, then stall just off the coast before dissipating. High pressure will rebuild late week. Today: Aloft, a west to east oriented ridge will continue to stretch across the Southern Plains to the Southeast while an upper low shifts across the Upper Midwest. At the surface, the pattern will remain rather weakly forced with the main feature being subtropical high pressure. Tuesday, a strong upper trough will swing through the Great Lakes region, pushing a cold front into the Southeast.
628 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory in Effect Today - Increasing Rain Chances A mid-level low and attendant trough will move eastward over the Great Plains today. High pressure over the Southern Plains will get shunted to the west as the aforementioned trough sags southward into the southeastern CONUS.
514 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure moving east across southern MN, with high pressure centered over WY. Upper level analysis shows compact low over far southwest MN, with high pressure over the Pacific NW. Temps are on the chilly side this morning, mostly mid 40s to mid 50s, with some cooler spots across the higher Black Hills. A dry work week is expected as upper high and negatively tilted ridge remain across much of the western US into the southern Plains. A more typical August wx pattern will develop across our area as warmer air builds back into the northern Plains over the next couple of days.
936 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 High pressure will prevail through today. A cold front will drop into the area late Tuesday, then stall just off the coast before dissipating. High pressure will rebuild late week. Today: Aloft, a west to east oriented ridge will continue to stretch across the Southern Plains to the Southeast while an upper low shifts across the Upper Midwest. At the surface, the pattern will remain rather weakly forced with the main feature being subtropical high pressure. Tuesday, a strong upper trough will swing through the Great Lakes region, pushing a cold front into the Southeast.
549 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Shower and thunderstorms return to the forecast today and Tuesday with crossing low pressure. Dry weather will return by mid week under high pressure. Increasing moisture transport ahead of the trough, increasing vorticity advection and jet ascent, should result in showers and embedded thunderstorms overspreading the region today. The low is expected to pull an occluded front through the Upper Ohio Valley region tonight as it tracks eastward, with shower and thunderstorm chances diminishing overnight.
Drier and stable conditions across most of the region today will be short-lived as monsoonal moisture will spill back into the eastern Mojave Desert and eastern Great Basin Tuesday through the remainder of the week with daily thunderstorm chances, especially in the higher terrain. Today will be a fairly tranquil weather day with drier and slightly warmer and more stable air aloft is initially being drawn up from southwest Arizona as a closed low begins to retrograde off the California Coast.
412 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Forecast Highlights: -Cooler and drier air is moving into the area today. Forecast Discussion: Water vapor imagery shows a compact low pressure system spinning over southern Minnesota early this morning. A complex of thunderstorms near the surface cold front is impacting far southeast KS, southern MO, northern AR and points east. Tomorrow should be another very pleasant summer day with temperatures only a few degrees warmer than today.
(Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory in Effect Today - Increasing Rain Chances A mid-level low and attendant trough will move eastward over the Great Plains today. High pressure over the Southern Plains will get shunted to the west as the aforementioned trough sags southward into the southeastern CONUS.
This morning's 14/10Z XMR sounding did show a subtly "cooler" boundary layer, with H85 T's around +18. 2 ft waves reported offshore this morning as tranquil marine conditions continue beneath high pressure.
557 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 - Cooler and breezy today, Temperatures will run about 5 to 10 degrees below normal today and Tuesday. WV imagery shows the compact stout H500 short wave trough churning aggressively east-southeast across southern Minnesota this morning. With ample dry air wrapping in from the northwest across the Plains, it continues to work slowly into the lower Missouri Valley, as evident by clear skies on IR finally inching into far northwestern Missouri. As the cold front has slowed along the Ozark Plateau this morning, it's butting up against the strong WAA from the gulf. 00 inch pwats will result in continued development through the morning across MO/AR into the lower Ohio Valley.
Temperatures will begin recovering from yesterday's cold front, though highs will still peak cooler than normal for most locations. The reprieve from the heat will end Tuesday, however, as stronger ridging arrives and highs peak into the upper 80s and 90s.
707 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 A round of scattered showers and storms are to move through central and southeastern Illinois today, becoming dry by later afternoon after the passage of a warm front then a cold front shortly after.
Forecast Highlights: -Cooler and drier air is moving into the area today. Forecast Discussion: Water vapor imagery shows a compact low pressure system spinning over southern Minnesota early this morning. A complex of thunderstorms near the surface cold front is impacting far southeast KS, southern MO, northern AR and points east. Tomorrow should be another very pleasant summer day with temperatures only a few degrees warmer than today.
An expansive deep mean layer ridge extends from the central North Atlantic, and the Keys sit on the southwestern periphery. From synopsis, a sprawling high pressure system will persist across the North Atlantic with a ridge extending westward to the Florida Peninsula for much of the upcoming week.
Coverage and storm intensity will vary each day as the low wobbles off the coast of California through mid-week, before tracking inland during the latter half of the week. The upper-level closed low currently off the coast of SoCal will begin lifting northward today, allowing moisture and instability to increase across much of our region. On the northern edge of the low, notably areas north of I-80, storms may be drier with the threat of lightning strikes outside of storm cores.
and Tuesday Upper low moving from Southeast Minnesota to Southern Lake Michigan will provide the forcing needed to produce a much needed rainfall for parts of Central and East Central Wisconsin. The left exit region of a 100 knot 300mb jet rotating around the upper low will move across Southern Wisconsin, while warm advection and convergence occur at low levels. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal today. Lows will be around five degrees cooler then normal.
700 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Shower and thunderstorms return to the forecast today and Tuesday with crossing low pressure. Dry weather will return by mid week under high pressure. Increasing moisture transport ahead of the trough, increasing vorticity advection and jet ascent, should result in showers and embedded thunderstorms overspreading the region today. The low is expected to pull an occluded front through the Upper Ohio Valley region tonight as it tracks eastward, with shower and thunderstorm chances diminishing overnight.
The upper low that brought all the rain has fully moved out of the area and you can expect mostly blue skies today and lighter winds. We will stay in northwest flow aloft as a upper high pressure sits over the Southwest until this weekend. Today will be the last cooler day until we warm back into the upper 80s.
(Today through Tuesday) There is actually something of note to talk about in the short term forecast period other than heat, and that revolves around the 500mb ridge sliding northwest today, allowing northwest flow to briefly take over. The primary product of this cold front will be a brief relief from Excessive Heat level temperatures for at least 1 day.
307 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Upper ridge over the west will begin spreading hot air out of the Pacific Northwest today.
619 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (Today and tonight) Cold front making steady progress over the region early this morning, ushering in much cooler temperatures and drier air. Moist, confluent flow aloft, between central/southern Texas ridge and strong upper low moving east out of the Dakotas, is expected to yield highly elevated showers going in a west to east band from west central and southwest Oklahoma through central Oklahoma through the morning ours. Cooler temperatures today, with forecast highs 10 to 15 degrees cooler than those seen the past several days. A refreshingly cooler night expected tonight with some lows in the upper 50s expected across northern Oklahoma.
623 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (Today through Tuesday night) The cold front that produced all the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening has pushed well south of the Panhandles. Highs are expected to be around 75-80 degrees for much of the area, with some of the typical warm spots (southeast Texas Panhandle, Palo Duro Canyon, Canadian River Valley) reaching all the way up into the low-80s. The Midwestern upper-level trough will move eastward which will allow for the upper-level ridge over the Southwest to expand eastward, kicking off a warming trend.
959 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 A round of scattered showers and storms are to move through central and southeastern Illinois today, becoming dry by later afternoon after the passage of a warm front then a cold front shortly after.
612 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 A cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the Midsouth early this week although today will still be quite warm ahead of the front.
203 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2023 An upper ridge will dominate our weather through Tuesday with hot and dry conditions expected.
Discussion: Closed upper level low will continue to move east of the area in the short term as northerly flow aloft brings H85 temps between 8. Some lingering showers seem possible with upper level low overhead. As far as temperatures tonight go, most areas should have cloud cover, but cooler air nonetheless will lead to lows in the 50s. Tomorrow a quiet day, as temps in the 70s are expected as the area remains under the influence of some cooler air aloft.
157 PM PDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Isolated mountain thunderstorms continue through the week into the weekend (15-30% probability) as low pressure slowly moves northward along the coast.
203 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Temperatures will be on the rise this week as upper level ridging builds into the area. Expect highs to soar into the mid to upper 90s on Tuesday across the lower elevation areas.
(This evening through Tuesday) A cold front is currently moving through the Concho Valley and will continue to slowly move south through the afternoon and evening hours. "Cooler" temperatures are occurring behind the front with temperatures across the Big Country in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Expect overnight lows a bit cooler than what we have seen the last several nights, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. This cloud cover could result in temperatures a degree or two cooler than what is currently forecast.
(The rest of today ) Morning surface analysis shows a cold front pushing southeast across the region this morning, attendant to an area of low pressure over IA. Expect below average highs across much of the region, except for the far south, which will be reaching their high for the day soon in the low 90s before the front pushes thru.
The drier airmass will also allow for some much cooler low temperatures tonight than we have seen recently, with lows in the 60s for much of the area, with some 50s expected in northwestern Oklahoma.
Temperatures this afternoon are sitting in the 70s across most of the area, with some 50s/60s across the higher elevations. Ridging will build back across the region, ending our brief spell of cool weather. Though temperatures will be warmer, the airmass across the region should still be stable and little convective activity is expected.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) The front has arrived and is currently set up somewhere along the I- 10 corridor, so if it feels a bit cooler stepping outside today, that's why! With a fairly active night of thunderstorms across the west, light showers continued across SE New Mexico for much of the morning, so many spots there haven't warmed above the 70s yet. Northwesterly flow returns, and drier air will settle over the area, limiting precipitation chance for Tuesday to the higher terrain and Big Bend region. The process of ridge building over the west will take the majority of Tuesday, and surface winds will remain mostly out of the east so afternoon temperatures won't have the chance to warm much and should look fairly similar to Monday.
For tonight, the upper low passing to the south of the area will move away.
322 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Low pressure will bring showers and a few thunderstorms across the region through the evening. Dry weather will return by mid week under high pressure.
100 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 High pressure will prevail through today. A cold front will drop into the area late Tuesday, then stall just off the coast before dissipating. High pressure will rebuild late week. The region will remain under the influence of building ridging aloft and Atlantic high pressure at the surface. Tuesday, a strong upper trough will swing through the Great Lakes region, pushing a cold front into the Southeast.
Over the Panhandles, weak northerly flow is forecast with low level high pressure over the High Plains during the daytime hours. Isolated to scattered showers and storms likely will form across the higher terrain of NM and CO during the afternoon hours.
1216 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 A round of scattered showers and storms are to move through central and southeastern Illinois today, becoming dry by later afternoon after the passage of a warm front then a cold front shortly after.
1241 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (Today through Tuesday) There is actually something of note to talk about in the short term forecast period other than heat, and that revolves around the 500mb ridge sliding northwest today, allowing northwest flow to briefly take over. The primary product of this cold front will be a brief relief from Excessive Heat level temperatures for at least 1 day.
Bust potential near term as vapor shows an impressive yet moisture starved intense upper low over cntrl IA this afternoon. Weak cold front in association with upstream wave wrapping ewd through James Bay still slated for Thu aftn with a chance of showers within narrow/meager plume of moisture return.
The eastern US longwave trough remains in place, which will help keep the pattern slightly more unsettled to the north (Central FL), but local convective coverage will be regulated by passing bursts of Saharan dust or tropical moisture.
213 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 An upper low will bring isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to portions of central Illinois the rest of today, then dry weather will be favored through midweek.
1238 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory in Effect Today - Increasing Rain Chances A mid-level low and attendant trough will move eastward over the Great Plains today. High pressure over the Southern Plains will get shunted to the west as the aforementioned trough sags southward into the southeastern CONUS.
1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (Today through Tuesday night) The cold front that produced all the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening has pushed well south of the Panhandles. Highs are expected to be around 75-80 degrees for much of the area, with some of the typical warm spots (southeast Texas Panhandle, Palo Duro Canyon, Canadian River Valley) reaching all the way up into the low-80s. The Midwestern upper-level trough will move eastward which will allow for the upper-level ridge over the Southwest to expand eastward, kicking off a warming trend.
1250 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (Today through Tuesday) We have one more steamy, stormy day to get through before a shot of drier and cooler air comes our way. Later this afternoon, coverage of thunderstorms is expected to increase area wide as a surface cold front approaches. We expect highs to push to the high side of model guidance with warming southwest winds ahead of the frontal zone. Late tonight through Tuesday, a big air mass change will start as a pronounced mid level trough sets up from the Great Lakes down across the TN Valley. Much cooler and drier air will filter into the region Tuesday with a northwest breeze. (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Dry and relatively cool high pressure will be in place midweek with much welcomed nice wx.
As of 2 PM, a wound-up upper low continues to spin to the north across Iowa, slowly drifting toward the southeast. Meanwhile, a noteworthy cold front continues to push east of our area, ushering in below normal temperatures and lower humidity, along with breezy west-northwest winds.
The strong upper ridge over the Southern Great Plains and Southeast States will persist through noon today. The northern portion of the ridge will then begin to breakdown this afternoon and evening as an upper trough over Midwest and central Great Plains moves eastward. This trough will eventually carve out a large trough over the entire eastern CONUS through Tuesday.
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis showed a upper level low spinning across Iowa. The ECMWF extreme forecast Index is showing a strong signal for abnormally cool the highs could be tomorrow. Areas across central Missouri could stay in the lower 70s.
What a beautiful August day it has been with much cooler and drier air in place behind last evening's cold front. The forecast area resides on the western periphery of the closed upper low over Iowa with a modest pressure gradient leading to breezy northwest winds this afternoon.
(This evening through Tuesday) The cold front that moved through the area early this morning will bring us some of the coolest overnight temperatures we have seen since mid-July. During the overnight hours, winds at the low levels of the atmosphere will veer to the southeast. Temperatures will warm again above or near seasonal averages on Tuesday with an upper ridge beginning to resettle across the southern Rockies.
A cold front will push through tonight bringing a much needed break in the heat to the Mid-South. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected through mid-week with morning lows in the 60s. An upper ridge will build into the region toward the end of the week.
A cold front located from southern IL through SE MO into northern AR will push into the area this afternoon. Convergence and lift along the approaching cold front looks fairly weak this afternoon and CAMs are fairly dry. As the upper trough pushes into the area tonight and the front slows for a bit across north MS expect showers and thunderstorms to develop after sunset and linger through much of the night. A cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the Midsouth early this week although today will still be quite warm ahead of the front.
(Trough Tonight) Cooler, drier air continues to filter into the region behind a cold front that has finally pushed its way to the Red River bringing some much welcome relief to the heat of the last couple of weeks.
206 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Quite the seasonally anomalous (thats weatherperson talk for really weird for this time of year) upper level closed low spinning into northern Illinois this afternoon. A strong surface cold front is set up to the south and making its way through the CWA. This should greatly limit precip chances as well as make for warm but not excessively hot days with much reduced humidity with upper level troughing slowly drifting southeast just to our east.
215 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2023 AFTERNOON UPDATE: Clouds remained limited across NE Montana today as upper ridging built over the region on the backside of an upper trough digging toward the Great Lakes.
122 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2023 As a low pressure system pushes into the Great Lakes region, a broad upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is over western SD, winds are light, and temperatures are rising into the 70s. Upper ridging will keep weather dry and very warm for much of this week.
This low will take plenty of time tracking just south of lower MI tonight. Min temps will be near 50f to the lower 50s in eastern upper, and range thru the 50s in northern lower MI.
1220 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase today and Tuesday with crossing low pressure. Dry weather will return by mid week under high pressure. As it stands, the region of concern has the highest Flash Flood Guidance, so while the threat is there for some isolated issues, it was not high enough to warrant a flood watch at this time and will remain highlighted in the HWO. Precipitation probabilities will be on the decrease with the loss of heating tonight but will remain non-zero given the proximity the the passing upper trough.
- Cooler and breezy today, Temperatures will run about 5 to 10 degrees below normal today and Tuesday. WV imagery shows the compact stout H500 short wave trough churning aggressively east-southeast across southern Minnesota this morning. With ample dry air wrapping in from the northwest across the Plains, it continues to work slowly into the lower Missouri Valley, as evident by clear skies on IR finally inching into far northwestern Missouri. As the cold front has slowed along the Ozark Plateau this morning, it's butting up against the strong WAA from the gulf. 00 inch pwats will result in continued development through the morning across MO/AR into the lower Ohio Valley.
Not much going on except for the northwest flow to continue with a return of warmer air and more seasonable temps.
1219 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (The rest of today ) Morning surface analysis shows a cold front pushing southeast across the region this morning, attendant to an area of low pressure over IA. Expect below average highs across much of the region, except for the far south, which will be reaching their high for the day soon in the low 90s before the front pushes thru.
1157 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (Today and tonight) Cold front making steady progress over the region early this morning, ushering in much cooler temperatures and drier air. Moist, confluent flow aloft, between central/southern Texas ridge and strong upper low moving east out of the Dakotas, is expected to yield highly elevated showers going in a west to east band from west central and southwest Oklahoma through central Oklahoma through the morning ours. Cooler temperatures today, with forecast highs 10 to 15 degrees cooler than those seen the past several days. A refreshingly cooler night expected tonight with some lows in the upper 50s expected across northern Oklahoma.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will expand across the plains later this week and through the weekend.
1205 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 The upper low has pretty much pulled east of the forecast area this morning.