Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect heavy rain to end this morning with only scattered showers this afternoon and early evening as the low slowly moves to the east. Latest sfc analysis shows low pressure near Sturgis as it very slowly moves east. High pressure will nose in from the southwest tonight leading to clear skies.
Tonight and Wednesday A ridge of high pressure was situated across WI this afternoon, with FEW-SCT fair weather cumulus and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s observed across the forecast area. A weak cold front over northern MN is expected to drift south tonight, but will likely stall out before reaching northern WI. On Wednesday, the pressure gradient will tighten as high pressure shifts southeast and a potent cold front approaches far northwest WI late in the afternoon. Gusty southwest to south winds will pull warmer air into the region ahead of the front, with high temperatures rising into the lower to middle 80s.
Thunderstorm activity should be limited over Navajo Nation and the Hopi tribe due to the proximity of the center of the high being over the Four Corners.
1236 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 (Rest of Today) High pressure will continue to push into the area from the Central Plains today, promoting much needed relief from the humid and active pattern. As a cold front continues to slowly push south, showers and thunderstorms currently stretching from Cullman into DeKalb will clear the area to the south and east, and a dry forecast will follow for the foreseeable future. Temperatures will almost feel like an early taste of fall today, only reaching the low to mid 80s this afternoon.
1235 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Shower activity will persist through tonight as an upper trough departs.
Hot today and Wednesday as the region remains under a negatively-tilted ridge. Temperatures will reach the triple digits in the lower valleys with lows in the low to mid 70s through Wednesday.
1214 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 (Today through Wednesday night) Today will be warmer than yesterday as the upper-level trough over the Midwest moves east and the upper-level ridge over the Southwest builds east into the Panhandles. Expect highs in the 85-90 degree range through the Panhandles with some locations getting into the low-90s. the upper-level ridge becomes more established over the area and much warmer 850mb temperature (33-34C in the west, 28-30C in the east) get advected in from the Mexican Plateau.
The gusty wind, above normal temperatures, and low relative humidity leads to elevated fire weather conditions for most of the lower elevations.
Breezy southwest winds will develop Wednesday afternoon with gusts up to 35 MPH, especially along the Highway 20 corridor. Discussion: High pressure is forecast to move across Missouri and southern Iowa through 12 UTC Wednesday. Winds will be light and variable overnight with high pressure building into the area.
(Today and tonight) Temperatures will be a little "cooler" and close to normal today, and some radiational cooling is expected tonight. With light east to southeast winds overnight, clear skies and drier air in place, this should allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 60s in our northern and central counties, to the lower 70s along the I-10 corridor. By Wednesday night southerly return flow will be established and a 500mb ridge will rebuild over the southern Plains through the end of the week.
1240 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Observations this morning show that the cold front is currently approaching the Cumberland Plateau, and it will continue to push eastward through the early morning hours. A beautiful day is on tap with high temperatures in the upper-70's and low-80's several degrees cooler than yesterday in the wake of the cold front. A strong upper-level high pressure system will build over TX/OK by the end of the week, resulting in dry northwest flow over our area. With this high meandering over the southern U.
1252 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region today with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Large scale pattern is depicting a weak upper trough in the eastern Pacific, just west of California. To the east is an upper ridge over the front range of the Rockies.
The cooler daytime temperatures, followed by cool nighttime temps should aid in the region decoupling. -Fair weather Wednesday with gusty winds Wednesday evening High pressure will dominate the weather pattern tomorrow with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will begin to increase late in the day out ahead of an approaching upper level low. The deepening trough with a strong pressure gradient associated with it should bring southerly winds that could gust upwards of 20 to 30 mph, especially along the lakeshore.
303 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Anonymously cool temperatures for mid-August continue this afternoon in the wake of a cold front.
209 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 As drier high pressure builds across our region beginning on Wednesday, we will have milder temperatures and lower humidity lasting into late week.
1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 (Issued 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023) Some showers continue to linger along a trough axis over Lake Michigan, east of Milwaukee south to Kenosha. Otherwise, high pressure to the southwest of the region will bring a pleasant period to the area this afternoon. Winds will be breezy today as high pressure pushes southeastward through the Missouri Valley. Winds turn southwesterly tonight, as the aforementioned high pushes eastward and low pressure begins to form across Manitoba and the Dakotas. Winds will gradually increase through the day on Wednesday and into Wednesday night, as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Mostly clear to clear skies will continue until the cold front starts to approach on Wednesday afternoon and evening. So as cold front moves across Minnesota and Wisconsin Wednesday into Wednesday night along with an associated wave aloft there will be a favorable environment for convective initiation where inhibition allows.
With the drier and cooler air, overnight lows are expected to be some 8-14 decrees cooler than they were this morning, which will be a welcome change. As dewpoints drop across the north, most of the higher moisture content will be found across the southeast this afternoon with storms still expected to develop along the front. Finally, we will feel some cooler air by tomorrow morning as skies clear and morning lows register in the lower 60s northwest to near 70 southeast. Highs will range from the lower 80s northwest to lower 90s southeast tomorrow, but it won't feel nearly as oppressive as it has lately with afternoon dewpoints remaining in the 60s.
This low level moisture has allowed for cumulus to develop across the area this afternoon. Surface temperatures have warmed only into the middle to the lower to middle 70s with the clouds and dry northwest winds. Low temps in the lower to middle 50s are likely and we have dropped temps a little tonight from previous forecast. Late Week into the Weekend: Ensembles are in good agreement that the mid level ridge out west will continue to build into the area late this weekend and continue into the weekend. The NBM has a small spread in high temp forecasts through the weekend which leads to high confidence that temps will reach the lower to middle 90s by the weekend.
Afternoon storms started in the Upper Keys and quickly spread west this afternoon, although the Lower Keys had a matinee before the main activity moved through. The increased coverage this afternoon was due to an inverted trough in the easterlies over the Bahama Bank, which will be moving west to northwest overnight. High pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and a ridge extending westward to the Florida peninsula will persist through the remainder of the work week, and promote gentle mainly east to southeast breezes prevailing across the Florida Keys coastal waters. A weak low pressure trough will continue to move westward through the Keys waters tonight through Wednesday, bringing increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms at times. High pressure will strengthen over the eastern United States this weekend, bringing freshening easterly breezes into the Keys waters.
707 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 EVENING UPDATE: Simply made some adjustments to the expected cold front winds for overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning. The associated clouds and cooler air are already noted over central Alberta and are headed this way. ----BMickelson AFTERNOON UPDATE: Clouds remained limited across northeast Montana once again today as weakening upper ridging lingered over the region. Models were consistent with a cold front dropping over the region early Wednesday morning, quickly shifting southwest winds to northwest and becoming gusty.
The upper level low off the coast of CA is continuing to bring thunderstorms to the area this afternoon.
1033 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 As drier high pressure builds across our region beginning on Wednesday, we will have milder temperatures and lower humidity lasting into late week.
The upper ridge will remain centered over our area through Wednesday for another round of hot and mostly dry conditions.
Southerly breezes will persist overnight as a pressure gradient begins to tighten with the approach of a cold front. Cold front will move from west to east across the CWA late morning Wed through the afternoon.
1044 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A weak cold front will push through the area late this afternoon and this evening, bringing showers and storms across the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area.
925 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Spokes of sprinkles emanating from an upper low over Cleveland have been swinging through the region this evening. High pressure over Missouri will keep our winds light. Anonymously cool temperatures for mid-August continue this afternoon in the wake of a cold front.
759 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 As drier high pressure builds across our region beginning on Wednesday, we will have milder temperatures and lower humidity lasting into late week.
The Northern Plains sit under weak northwest flow aloft this afternoon, with broad surface ridging from Manitoba through the lower Missouri River Valley. A cold front attendant to the responding surface cyclogenesis will be driven through the state from northwest to southeast earlier in the day. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Wednesday, but with the frontal passage occurring earlier in the day and given the time of year, it will not be unseasonably cool and may actually remain quite warm in the far south. High temperatures in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints falling into the mid to upper 40s in far western North Dakota Wednesday afternoon will yield minimum humidity around 25 to 30 percent. Lastly, there is a slight chance of showers with the cold front Wednesday morning, mainly from far north central into northeast North Dakota.
The winds have been adjusted to account for decreased values due to lower observations than were in the forecast, otherwise, the forecast remains mostly on track overnight with lows forecast to dip a few more degrees into the lower 60s.
704 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Shower activity will persist through this evening as an upper trough swings through the region.
Most of the island chain has received some form of rain today, but the higher amounts were decidedly over the Upper Keys and eastern Middle Keys. As a result, temperatures have fallen in to the lower to mid 80s putting an early stop to today's Heat Advisory. Rain chances stay likely as stratiform rain with some embedded thunderstorms reforming in the Straits roll through with the moisture pushed along with the inverted trough nosing along from the south. After this round of enhanced moisture passes through, deep layer ridging from the North Atlantic will continue to drive sensible weather through this week with rain chances returning to near normal values. This weekend, another wave of tropical moisture will slide around a strengthening ridge.
1047 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A weak cold front will push through the area late this afternoon and this evening, bringing showers and storms across the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area.
641 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Cooler than normal weather will continue for the next couple of days with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. By the end of the week into the weekend the heat will start to rebuild as upper ridging strengthens over the region.
921 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 High pressure will bring quiet and mild weather to central IL through Wednesday.
A quiet, dry & cooler evening is on tap across the region. 00Z synoptic analysis indicate center of the cold core is moving into the Great Lakes, while troughing/northwest flow is bringing dry & subsident airmass into the region. Due to that, a quiet evening is anticipated with dewpoints falling into the low 60s & cooler lows, generally around 5-8 degrees below normal in the low 60s north to upper 60s south. /DC/ Tonight and Tomorrow: Rain chances decrease through the evening into tonight as the cold front moves out of the area. Generally light northerly winds will allow cooler and drier air to filter in overnight. On Wednesday, high pressure builds into the area with post frontal dry air in place.
Weak high pressure continues to hold over the region with very warm humid conditions persisting due to onshore west to southwest flow.
637 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 High pressure will bring quiet and mild weather to central IL through Wednesday.
714 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Several locations in our central cwa reached triple digits today, with RHs bottoming in the low-mid teens. Tonight will be mild with persistent low humidity in advance of a cold front dropping out of Canada. Tomorrow will be cooler but still warmer than normal with highs ranging from the upper 80s east to mid 90s west. An upper level ridge will keep conditions hot and fairly dry through the short term. Wednesday morning, a cold front will pass through, causing winds to shift to the north and bringing wind gusts around 20-25 mph, particularly in the eastern portion of the forecast area, through the day. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the mid 50s to low 60s overnight.
647 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Slowly weakening mid level circulation and associated low pressure exiting the Eastern Great Lakes this evening, taking the rain showers with it. Will lower vsby's to 3sm for MBS/FNT/PTK tonight, and there is probably about 20 percent chance to dip into LIFR, but prefer to monitor trends this evening before going any lower with the low confidence. Low pressure over far northwest Ohio will continue to track slowly east late today into tonight. Rain showers within a deformation zone north and northwest of this low will gradually diminish into the evening hours as forcing associated with this system shifts to the east. Skies will then clear quickly into the overnight within subsidence region as high pressure builds into the region.
Anonymously cool temperatures for mid-August continue this afternoon in the wake of a cold front.
644 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) Model agreement continues to see the 500mb high pressure center strengthen and expand over the course of the day.
The next couple of days are expected to stay slightly cooler with temps averaging in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. Later this week, a ridge is still projected to move into the region and increase temperatures and dewpoints throughout. GNC Cooler than normal weather will continue for the next couple of days with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. By the end of the week into the weekend the heat will start to rebuild as upper ridging strengthens over the region.
504 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region today with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms east of the Blue Ridge.
453 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A NW-to-SE oriented ridge. will gradually expand eastward over adjacent portions of the High Plains. characterized by pronounced ridging over the central CONUS and troughing along the Pacific and Atlantic coasts.
654 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A weak cold front will push through the area late this afternoon and this evening, bringing showers and storms across the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area.
643 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Tonight and Tomorrow: Rain chances decrease through the evening into tonight as the cold front moves out of the area. Generally light northerly winds will allow cooler and drier air to filter in overnight. On Wednesday, high pressure builds into the area with post frontal dry air in place.
Key Messages: * Breezy and much warmer Wednesday afternoon with a dry cold front expected to cross the area late Wednesday night.
924 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A cold front will push south of the area late tonight. High pressure and dry conditions return for Wednesday.
611 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Southerly breezes will persist overnight as a pressure gradient begins to tighten with the approach of a cold front. Cold front will move from west to east across the CWA late morning Wed through the afternoon.
218 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Dry high pressure building in today will maintain milder temperatures and lower humidity to end the week.
Spokes of sprinkles emanating from an upper low over Cleveland have been swinging through the region this evening. High pressure over Missouri will keep our winds light. Anonymously cool temperatures for mid-August continue this afternoon in the wake of a cold front.
(Today and tonight) The cooler weather has made its grand exit after a brief appearance over the weekend. The upper level ridge we have all grown to dislike will begin to rebuild over the western CONUS today with increased thickness values noted over the region. 850 mb temperatures ranging from 28C to 34C indicate highs today in the low triple digits for most of the CWA, a model blend of CONSMOS and the previous forecast was used to increase temperatures over the NBM. No precipitation is expected over the short term as monsoonal moisture remains to our west with the rebuilding ridge.
Discussion: Current upper level water vapor satellite shows low pressure system over the Great Lakes with a ridge anchored over the western CONUS moving eastward. At the surface, high pressure will remain through the rest of the afternoon and overnight before sliding eastward tomorrow. Winds will turn to a more southerly component as high pressure and associated ridge moves eastward.
1132 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Upper ridging continues to keep the CWA mostly cloud free this evening. The upper level ridge is expected isn't expected to move much over the next 24 hours. Key messages: 1) Heat is here to stay for several days 2) Monsoon plume stays shifted mostly to our west 3) Storm chances mostly confined to the mountains A dominating ridge of high pressure will be the driving force in the weather for the next several days to come.
(This evening through Wednesday) The cold front continues to slowly drift through the CWA, firing a couple lines of thunderstorms along the I20 corridor and Northward. PoPs will continue overnight along the boundary, however drier and cooler conditions to the north will prevail (yeah!). Overall though the rest of the area should be cooler and dry.
127 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 A cold front will move into the area tonight, then linger across the region through Thursday. High pressure will rebuild late week through the weekend. Given that the surface front is just to our west, we have troughing aloft, and precipitable water values are around 2 inches, we could see showers and thunderstorms develop just about anywhere at any time through the night. Nonetheless, ample instability will remain draped across the Low Country with MLCAPE values of 2-3K J/Kg forecast Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, with slightly cooler temperatures anticipated Wednesday, heat index values are expected to remain under our Heat Advisory criteria of 110F.
(Today and tonight) The return to hotter temperatures begins today, as southerly surface winds resume and the 850mb thermal ridge strengthens. Temperatures tonight will be warmer than the previous night, with clear skies and southeast to south winds.
Water vapor imagery shows a well defined closed low moving over Lake Erie with dry air around the base of the aformentioned trough over the lower Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, maxTs on Wednesday will rise into the lower 80s as light NE winds will still help to keep temps a bit below normal with minTs near 60. MaxTs in the mid to upper 80s will not last long as a dry (or dewpoint!) sfc cold moves across the FA Thursday night with a deep 500 mb longwave trough over Ontario Canada.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Following the slightly cooler airmass we saw the last couple days temperatures will be on the way back up. Upper ridging centered to our northwest will remain in control of our weather. Highs will return to the 100s for most this afternoon with low to mid 90s into the higher terrain. Isolated storms are once again possible for the higher terrain and portions of southeast New Mexico.
150 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 An upper level low will continue to provide clouds, scattered showers and patchy drizzle this morning into the afternoon. More clearing and warmer temperatures are expected for Thursday, although a stray shower or thunderstorm still can't be ruled out.
202 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023 An upper air ridge over the western US will continue to dominate our weather through Thursday with dry and hot conditions. The low-level winds combined with warmer air aloft moving over the area from the ridge will cause an increase in high temperatures on Thursday.
335 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 High pressure will build overhead today before moving offshore tonight into Thursday.
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 A weak cold front will become stationary across the eastern Midlands this afternoon.
As it propagates eastward, drier and cooler weather continues for central Illinois today. Tomorrow, a low pressure system is expected to track far north of central Illinois up across Canada. A cold front will extend southward and traverse across the central Illinois area through the day.
Wed area temps wl remain somewhat seasonably cooler, with readings in the mid 80s at most sites. However by Thurs, most locations wl be back into normal mid-August temps with readings in the low to mid 90s, and humidity beginning to increase again.
(This evening through Wednesday) Key Message: Mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures behind the front. With the cooler air filtering in behind the front temperatures are remaining fairly cool today and several degrees cooler than yesterday even with the sunnier skies.
1244 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 A cold front will stall over the area through mid week bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures. Think isolated to widely scattered showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder will occur overnight as a slowly cold front approaches but severe storms or flooding are not expected. Low temps tonight will be in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday: With front stalled over the area and decent upper level dynamics with trough just to our west and strong jet running from SW to NE across the Carolinas, expect decent coverage of storms on Wednesday. Temps will remain in the 80s on Wed, just near normal and dewpoint temps drop into the lower 60s inland.
An excessive heat warning remains in effect for the Lower Hells Canyon and Salmon River Region of Idaho.
The lee trough will continue today. Lows tonight will be warmer as the southerly winds continue through the overnight. Really, it will still be quite warm to hot with a gradient of highs from the "cooler" readings in the north to still hot temperatures near the Oklahoma border. A 595-600 dm ridge will sit itself firmly across the greater region. The EC still shows the dominating ridging across the greater region. In fact, this ridge might sit directly on top of us for much of the business week.