Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
713 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 (This afternoon through Monday) A cold frontal boundary is passing through the area behind a departing mid-level low pressure system. Global models show good agreement in depicting broad and deep high pressure taking control of much of the middle states region, This will result in cooler and much drier air following the FROPA, as moderate WNW flow establishes across SoFlo during the short term. Afternoon highs won't begin to drop right away, as the cooler air advection in the wake of the front will take a little longer to fully reach the area.
643 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 Low pressure moving along the southeastern coastline this evening will continue tracking northward overnight.
The latest mid-level analysis indicates a ridge axis extending from the Pacific NW southeastward to Arizona. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure extends from Pac NW southeastward across the Rockies. The aforementioned ridge axis will slide eastward, centered over the Utah-Colorado border by Monday morning and across the Front Range by Monday evening. High pressure will slide southeast of the area through this period. Cooler air aloft will advect into the area by tomorrow and be countered by abundant sunshine once again with highs ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s across the Plains and Front Range to the mid to upper 30s in valleys to the lower to mid 30s across higher terrain. Key Messages: - Aside from passing snow showers in the higher elevations mid- week, a slow week of weather is ahead.
(Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening as drier air is working its way into the region, helping to erode some of the low stratus that hung over the region for most day. Locations that remain mostly clear will likely be a few degrees cooler than areas where clouds build back in.
Will keep an eye on temp trends but feeling comfortable with many areas reaching generally the lower 40's to upper 30's, with colder spots touching the mid 30's.
530 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - Cooler temperatures expected Monday, then warmer and much above normal temperatures through the remainder of the forecast.
529 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (This evening through Monday) A cold front will move across the area tonight with winds becoming more northerly behind the front.
There is also a low chance for light freezing rain in portions of western Humboldt county for Monday morning. Current synoptic situation is depicting an upper level ridge axis overhead and this will be moving east tonight. Concerns exist about the colder valley locations across western Humboldt county and warmer air aloft overriding the cold dome near the surface. Confidence is not high (about 10 percent) but pockets of light freezing rain is possible in portions of Humboldt county during the early morning hours. Have introduced intermittent light freezing rain as a result. For Monday and Monday night, model solutions show the upper level low pressure system coming ashore and moving north of Nevada.
624 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Tonight) The cold front has officially moved east of the local area. The northwest flow will begin to usher in drier and cooler air to the Tennessee Valley, leading to cooler overnight temperatures. Forecast lows are expected to dip into the lower to mid 30s tonight into early Monday morning.
The upper ridge axis will slide eastward Sunday night night into Monday with an approaching upper low along the west coast.
Otherwise, high clouds are on the increase tonight with showers pushing into western Oregon in advance of an upper low. Typically colder valleys that are slower to mix out could see some freezing rain through early afternoon with low probabilities across northern Harney and Malheur counties and southern Baker county. IFR and low MVFR in stratus across the lower Snake Plain and valleys of e-central Oregon tonight. Freezing rain is possible in valleys of e-central Oregon as snow levels rise to between 4500-6500 feet MSL.
915 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - Windy conditions will continue this afternoon due to the passage of an upper level wave and a surface cold front. An advancing cold front in South Dakota with strong pressure rises behind the front has brought gusty winds to North Dakota. Temperatures have cooled to at or below freezing across the northern half of the state while the southern half has remained warmer in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Breezy winds continue with the area between the departing Low over the Carolinas and high pressure building across the Plains. Aloft, an upper trough will swing across the eastern US with deep- layer northwesterly winds ushering in cold, dry air across the region. A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight for areas north of Waycross, GA where freezing and sub- freezing temperatures will be possible.
Mean northwesterly flow in the low- levels & aloft is keeping strong isentropic subsidence & PWs near the 10th-25th percentile (i. High clouds and deep flow will tend to limit radiational cooling potential, and should keep temperatures above freezing for much of the area, but should get cold enough for some patchy frost, with lows around the mid 30s.
1012 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 A strong nor'easter will exit the region tonight, followed by high pressure through the rest of the week. As the low departs, the last band of light rain showers should lift north over the South Santee River late this evening. A secondary cold front will push offshore Monday night as high pressure over the Central Plains builds east.
1057 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (This evening through Monday night) As a H500 ridge builds across the Four Corners Region this afternoon, sfc to H850 flow from the NW is actually advecting warmer temperatures into the region with many locations into the 60s this afternoon. A weak cold front is moving south through the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. The cooler temperatures will follow as we go into tomorrow. After overnight lows tonight ranging from the lower 20s to lower 30sw, high temperatures tomorrow return to near average for mid December with high in the lower to mid 50s. A lee trough will develop by tomorrow afternoon as the main H500 ridge axis slides east of the region.
(Today and tonight) Surface ridging was expanding over the region early this morning under dry northwest flow. This ridge will be quick to depart by late afternoon ahead of a semi-dirty upper ridge expected to bring a wealth of high clouds this evening and overnight. Although much cooler than yesterday, temps today are still set to top out above normal in the mid and upper 50s.
1053 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) Ridging aloft and the surface will maintain a very dry and stable airmass in place through the forecast period. A stable dry airmass above a shallow inversion, wet soils, calm winds and radiational cooling may allow for short-lived patchy dense fog Monday morning, but will hold off on any dense fog advisories due to the low probability. Mild conditions start the week before Christmas as highs recover in the low to mid 70s.
scattered high clouds move across the area from the west during the day, increasing a bit in thickness and coverage during the night as an upper level ridge axis moves over the area.
1029 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (This evening through Monday) A cold front will move south through the forecast area tonight resulting in morning lows tomorrow in the 20s and 30s and high temperatures about 10 degrees cooler in the 50s. Chances of precipitation are zero tonight and tomorrow with upper level ridging moving over West Texas and very dry air throughout most of the column - except for some high clouds moving in from New Mexico tomorrow.
While conditions would normally suggest colder temperatures than what was observed this morning given the clear sky and calm winds and thus good radiational cooling, the mid-evening sfc analysis indicates a weak cold front that is making its way SE into extreme SE OK/N TX attm, with this bndry expected to gradually slip S into much of the region through daybreak Monday.
A significant shift in the pattern will bring widespread moisture and cooler temperatures by the end of the week. This low will eject northeast and be replaced by another, stronger cut off low later this week. For now, overnight low temperatures have already been raised due to high cloud cover the the strength of the ridge overhead, this looks good.
This will bring about some breezy conditions during the afternoon hours as the surface pressure gradient tightens on the back end of this high pressure center. As this high moves out of the area, a ridge over the southwestern CONUS will begin to build east into the Dakotas, raising temperatures in the southwest to the lower 40s. Temperatures will remain below freezing across much of the rest of the state, before beginning to warm up some more heading into Tuesday. The aforementioned ridge will build further east late Monday night, before beginning to deamplify heading into Tuesday, resulting in mostly zonal flow across North Dakota.
1048 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 As a strong area of low pressure departs the region tonight, a stout pressure gradient will develop in it's wake through Monday before giving way to high pressure later on Tuesday. Dry high pressure will then linger atop the region for the rest of the work week.
) Upper level analysis shows northwesterly flow over the Northern Plains with upper trough axis shifting through the Great Lakes. Further upstream, an upper ridge continues to migrate across the western US and is now centered from British Columbia southward through the Four Corners. West of the ridge axis, water vapor imagery shows active southwesterly flow with ample upper level moisture/high clouds. The surface cold front has surged into the Central Plains; the front arcs northwestward into central WY/MT as a quasi-stationary front. This quasi-stationary front will surge eastward as a warm front later today into Tuesday as warm air advection returns to the forecast area. The upper ridge will flatten and slide eastward early this week and upper level flow will turn west-southwest by Tuesday and continue through the week.
A light NNW breeze was observed over portions of NE OK this evening, expect this to gradually increase in coverage and intensity later tonight into tomorrow as a dry cold front passes through the region. A dry cold front is currently dropping south through the Central Plains and will pass through the area tonight.
150 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 - Freezing fog is occurring over areas near the Mississippi and Ohio River confluence. Impacts are possible on bridges crossing the river and reductions to visibility are also expected. ezing fog advisory this morning for areas mainly along the low-lying Ohio/Mississippi River beds based on observational trends. Temperatures are 28-32, this likely won't be a more traditional widespread dense fog event but obs seem to show sudden drops in visibility and with the fog thickest along the river am concerned about impacts on bridges. With lapse rates steepening up this morning under a mid/upper level trough a few snow showers are possible in SWIN today but obs and model trends don't support a more traditional "snow-squall" type situation this far southwest and QPF amounts should be light enough to prevent any accumulation.
1130 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Northwest flow is over Arkansas with an upper low over the Carolinas and an upper ridge over the desert Southwest. The upper ridge moves through the Rockies Monday and into the Plains Tuesday. A weak and dry cold front will move through Arkansas tonight. High pressure will move in Monday and continue over Arkansas Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the lower 30s to lower 40s, then cooler Monday night in the 20s. Highs Monday will be in the mid 40s to around 60 degrees and Tuesday will be in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
A weak cold front moved through the area last evening, with cooler air moving into the area early today. Expect seasonal temperatures for today, as a Canadian ridge of high pressure settles over the area. A gradual warming trend is expected for Tue thru Thu as the upper ridge shifts east of the area, with better downslope flow expected for Tue and certainly for Wed as the mid level flow returns to the SW. Both models agree that the precipitation will be all rain, as the warm advection will keep temperatures above freezing throughout the quick hitting event.
Will keep an eye on temp trends but feeling comfortable with many areas reaching generally the lower 40's to upper 30's, with colder spots touching the mid 30's. Our cold front is now well past the area, which has shifted our surface flow to the NW. Another cold front of sorts will push through the area tomorrow, clearing the coast by the late evening. This boundary is mainly just reinforcing cooler and drier air into the area. This reinforcing air will help drop low temperatures into the low 30s for northern areas Tuesday morning. NBM was running a bit on the high side, so dropped temperatures a couple degrees and depending how things trend, may need to drop them even a little more.
1033 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - A brief period of below normal (5-10 degrees) temperatures is forecast Monday and Monday night behind a cold front.
1231 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 As a strong area of low pressure departs the region tonight, a stout pressure gradient will develop in it's wake through Monday before giving way to high pressure later on Tuesday. Dry high pressure will then linger atop the region for the rest of the work week.
An amplified pattern continues across the CONUS as the area of low pressure that impacted the FL peninsula yesterday spins off the Mid- Atlantic region. In the wake of this system, a breezy WNW flow continues as a cooler and drier airmass filters in. The clouds largely advecting over West Central and Southwest Florida can be attributed to cooler air over relatively warmer water. As the low pulls away and an upper-level ridge builds in, winds shift from a NNW to N to ENE, effectively advecting the drier and more stable land-based airmass in.
Current temperatures are in the low 30s to mid 40s with light winds at the surface and mostly clear skies. An upper level trough will dip down and center over the Ohio/Canada border tightening our pressure gradient over the Mid-South resulting in gusts up to 25 kts tomorrow afternoon. AEH Another cold front will pass through the Midsouth early Monday, bringing a reinforcing push of cold air to the region.
1254 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 A strong nor'easter will exit the region tonight, followed by high pressure through the rest of the week. A secondary cold front will push offshore Monday night as high pressure over the Central Plains builds east.
1043 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (This evening through Monday) A cold front will move across the area tonight with winds becoming more northerly behind the front.
To our northwest a strong cold front is racing down to the area, which will bring tomorrow's day-long cold snap.
This should decrease the efficiency of radiational cooling and subsequently result in fewer areas hitting the freezing mark through the early morning hours compared to this morning. The start of the upcoming work week should be seasonably cool with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s through Tuesday and overnight lows on Monday night in the low to mid 30s.
1045 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - Cooler Monday - Warming trend for Tuesday and beyond with increasing chances for rain for the end of the week Weak ridging is building into the CWA which will allow temperatures remain on the mild side for the afternoon. Tonight, the next cold front will be pushing through the CWA.
912 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 High pressure continues to build over the region with clear skies and light winds across the region. (Tonight through Tuesday night) High pressure and a departing cold front have worked together to make for an absolutely beautiful day today. High temps in the low to mid 60s are ongoing with a light to breezy north wind. High pressure slides across the central US tomorrow, sending southward a cold front which arrives overnight into Tuesday.
(Today and tonight) Much quieter weather will prevail today in the wake of the low pressure system that brought rain and wind to the area over the weekend. High pressure and a dry airmass will build into the area. With winds staying somewhat elevated tonight, wind chill values in the lower 20s are expected across the cooler locations of southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.
(This afternoon through Monday) As the storm system moves up the coast, high pressure resumes control come Monday. High pressure will remain in place through the short term forecast with daytime highs around normal for this time of year for the rest of the day and through the overnight. Overnight lows on Monday night and into Tuesday morning will drop pretty significantly with temps falling below freezing and wind chills in the single digits across portions of northern GA.
Overall, temperatures will remain right around normal with most of the region climbing into the lower and middle 60s today. Eyes will focus upstream as a dry cold front begins to march southward later this evening and overnight. Behind the front, stronger CAA will develop across the region with a surge of cooler air moving into the region by Tuesday. Tried to reflect this in the ongoing forecast with the cooler drainage locations most likely protected from the "stronger" surface flow. Also, the northern tier with the lighter winds will likely experience freezing in most locations too, however, again it all depends on timing of the decrease in winds and duration of the lightest winds.
216 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 - Cooler and windy today.
(Now through Monday) A trough over the east coast will continue eastward with an upper level northwest flow pattern over the area resulting in building high pressure at the sfc. Low clouds east of I-65 will continue to clear the area as the trough progresses eastward. A cooler and drier airmass will continue to move into the area through Monday as a deep northwesterly flow prevails.
(Today) A subtle cold front will move south across the forecast area this morning.
Unseasonably strong high pressure over the region will continue to bring well above normal temperatures through Tuesday with dry conditions.
1043 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening as drier air is working its way into the region, helping to erode some of the low stratus that hung over the region for most day. Locations that remain mostly clear will likely be a few degrees cooler than areas where clouds build back in.
(Today through Tuesday) Low pressure will move northeast along the northeastern coast of the United States, as high pressure over the North Central United States moves southeast into the Southeastern United States. however, the wind speeds around 5 mph over the interior areas will make the wind chill readings be in the lower to mid-40s except around 40 tonight will make the wind chill readings be in the upper 40s well west metro areas to the lower 50s near the coast.
1159 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - Windy conditions will continue this afternoon due to the passage of an upper level wave and a surface cold front. An advancing cold front in South Dakota with strong pressure rises behind the front has brought gusty winds to North Dakota. Temperatures have cooled to at or below freezing across the northern half of the state while the southern half has remained warmer in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
(Today through Tuesday Night) High pressure will control the weather pattern through the short term promoting calm and dry conditions.
1143 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - Colder Monday, post cold front, with highs in the upper 30s.
332 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Strong low pressure is currently situated over the Outer Banks of NC. The low will continue to pull off to the NE with high pressure building in back behind the system. High pressure and dry conditions will persist across the CWA through the remainder of the short term period.
Upper ridge axis will be sliding over us from the west today. This will turn flow more downslope in lower levels leading to warmer temps for today with highs in the 50s west of Rosebud county, and mid 40s over SE Montana. Ridge flattens out Tuesday, but temperatures will not necessarily reflect this thanks to the influence of downslope flow.
However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in impacts (if any) 'Twas the week before Christmas and all through the region, not a At this hour, the upper level ridge is situated over the western CONUS with trough digging into the eastern CONUS. Ridge will continue to build and shift eastward through early Monday and Tuesday. Then the deepening trough associated with this most recent clipper system will swing down from the Hudson Bay region into the Great Lakes region, flattening the ridge out and putting us under nearly zonal, west-southwesterly flow for most of the week. Ensemble outputs have been consistent in depicting a split flow pattern with an upper low/troughing developing over the desert southwest.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) A weak cold front has nosed through the Permian Basin this morning and reached the limit of its progression along the Pecos Valley. Despite the weak nature of the front, today's highs are still going to be 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday and much closer to normal for mid-December. With breezy southerly winds setting up and the axis of an upper ridge passing overhead on Tuesday, the region warms up a few degrees, topping out in the low to mid 60s for most. Dry air in place and subsidence supplied by the upper ridging keeps precipitation chances nil through the short term.
1025 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 Low pressure moving along the southeastern coastline this evening will continue tracking northward overnight. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region early week with cold temperatures expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. Lingering precipitation should end shortly after midnight as low pressure off the coast continues to pull away. There is not a lot of cold air associated with this system, so overnight lows are anticipated to fall from the lower to mid 50s gradually into the lower to mid 40s. A deep upper level trough over the eastern Great Lakes on Monday will progress into New England on Tuesday.
1132 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - Cooler temperatures expected Monday, then warmer and much above normal temperatures through the remainder of the forecast.
1036 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - Cooler Monday, then above-normal temperatures return through the remainder of the week.
1200 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) After a warm afternoon today with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s, a cold front will transition temperatures back toward normal Monday. Lows Monday morning will be similar to the past few days, but highs will be cooler and mostly in the 50s. Moisture and clouds will begin to increase Monday night helping keep low temperatures slightly warmer and several degrees above average.
Within the northwest flow there is quite a bit of moisture below 850 mb, which has allowed for some light shallow scattered showers across the CWA west of the Channel 5 Bridge. The Coastal Flood Advisory is limited to the Upper Keys with a Coastal Flood Statement in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. From synopsis: the winter low pressure system centered near the Carolina Coasts will continue to the northeast tonight and Monday.
1054 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Will allow the High Rip Current statement to expire at 6 PM and am not anticipating issuing a Coastal Flood Advisory for tonight. (Tonight through Monday night) High pressure will dominate the forecast through Monday night. A slow moisture return is also expected overnight and Monday, which will help keep low temperatures a bit warmer for Monday night.
After full sun helps to warm and mix the air today bringing gusty northwest wind, cold advection associated with the passing thermal trough should peak this evening. Lows tonight are expected to drop well into the 20s over north central/northeast MS with sub-freezing temperatures expected for the most part elsewhere.