Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As of this morning, an area of high pressure was beginning to build into the region from the northwest. At the same time, a weak region of troughing aloft was swinging down from SK as well. WPC cluster analysis shows the idea of a building 500 mb ridge which by late week will be centered over the north Pacific into southern Alaska.
209 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2023 An upper ridge will move through Montana today. Meanwhile, two troughs over the Gulf of Alaska and the Aleutians will move toward the Alaskan Peninsula. The eastern most trough will move onshore in British Columbia today, and accelerated to the southeast as the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska builds. This trough begins to split over Idaho, with the southern portion forming into a closed- low and moving toward the Four Corners. The northern portion stays more as a trough, and combined, this will aid in broad lift to support snow for central Montana on Sunday. A strong pressure gradient behind Sunday's cold front will bring northwest winds gusting up to 30-40 mph, especially near the Little Rockies.
410 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2023 The low pressure is currently lifting out over the Plains leaving us under northerly flow. High temps today will run 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday in the wake of a cold front. The next low pressure system will arrive over the northern Great Basin early tomorrow and continue progressing southward during the day.
Broad ridging will continue to impede progression of a series of frontal boundaries approaching South Florida through the middle of the week.
434 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2023 Closed low over southeast Colorado early this morning and this feature will track into Kansas this afternoon. Despite large scale subsidence moving in this afternoon, the flow aloft will be straight northerly as high pressure builds in from the Northern Rockies through tonight.
This inversion is expected to remain in place today as a ridge of high pressure tracks through the central Great Lakes region. A low pressure system tracking through the Ohio Valley could bring some snow south of the area tonight. In addition, model soundings are very dry throughout the column during this period save for the lowest levels of the atmosphere. High pressure will then build in across the Plains on Sunday, with continued dry weather across much of the region.
315 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 Southern stream energy and an associated 500mb low over the southern Rockies will phase with the northern stream resulting in the development of a strengthening mid level trof that by Sunday will end up moving east from over the Plains to the Mississippi Valley region. Any impacts to road may be limited to bridges and overpasses. Sunday, with the mid level trof hanging over the area, and moisture seen within it (at times), we may see a mix back and forth of very light rain or light snow (that won't stick).
529 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 (Today through Sunday) A northern and southern stream short wave trough will phase together over the Plains States today and amplify as it tracks eastward tonight. The rainfall may be heavy at times tonight as an elevated warm front sets up near the I-20 corridor. A cold front will push rapidly eastward across Alabama on Sunday bringing an end to the heavier rain. Lows tonight will be warmer than normal due to cloud cover and rain, with values in the middle to upper 40s.
(Today through Sunday) A northern and southern stream short wave trough will phase together over the Plains States today and amplify as it tracks eastward tonight. The rainfall may be heavy at times tonight as an elevated warm front sets up near the I-20 corridor. A cold front will push rapidly eastward across Alabama on Sunday bringing an end to the heavier rain. Lows tonight will be warmer than normal due to cloud cover and rain, with values in the middle to upper 40s.
430 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 (This evening through Saturday) A mid-level trough will move eastward across the KS/OK border Saturday. At the surface, a cyclone is expected to deepen and move eastward across central Oklahoma. Precipitation is possible along the back side of this surface cyclone, where northerly winds and upper-level support will reside. Surface temperatures will stay above freezing, so chance of winter precipitation for the rest of the area is near zero with this system.
Cooler temperatures are expected today for areas along and north of the frontal boundary. So high temperatures across the forecast area this afternoon will range from the middle 60s along the Nature Coast into the lower 80s in SWFL. Then, overnight lows will remain relatively mild with lows early Sunday morning ranging from the lower 50s north to the lower 60s further south.
The boundary will lift north tonight into Sunday in response to strengthening low pressure over the SE US.
Since there is still a small chance of near warning criteria wind speeds, I did leave the high wind warning as is.
550 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 Aviation - Light snow very late tonight into Sunday - A sfc/upr trof will combine to bring light snow very late tonight through early to mid afternoon Sunday. Impacts will be minimal given sfc temps near or just below the freezing mark.
Midday mesoanalysis placed the strong midlevel cyclone just south of Dodge City. Sunshine is expected Sunday, courtesy of a transitory midlevel ridge that will build over the high plains by late afternoon in between systems. Where the deepest snowpack is melting, these locations will stay below freezing Sunday. Otherwise, the mildest temperatures in the lower 40s will be found adjacent to Oklahoma. Ridge axis over the high plains will move over SW KS Sunday night, while high pressure builds at the surface to near 1029 mb.
1249 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the northern plains which heads east into upper Great Lakes by this evening.
119 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 Aviation - Light snow very late tonight into Sunday - A sfc/upr trof will combine to bring light snow very late tonight through early to mid afternoon Sunday. Impacts will be minimal given sfc temps near or just below the freezing mark.
Otherwise, skies will gradually clear from the west to east as the storm system departs and high pressure builds into the region.
The warmest locations will likely be our southeast counties, which could see a few highs in the lower 50s.
1137 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 (Today through Sunday) A northern and southern stream short wave trough will phase together over the Plains States today and amplify as it tracks eastward tonight. The rainfall may be heavy at times tonight as an elevated warm front sets up near the I-20 corridor. A cold front will push rapidly eastward across Alabama on Sunday bringing an end to the heavier rain. Lows tonight will be warmer than normal due to cloud cover and rain, with values in the middle to upper 40s.
(This evening through Sunday) An upper level low ejecting toward south-central Kansas this afternoon will continue to move away from the forecast area tonight with short wave ridging moving over the forecast area Sunday. A fairly tight surface pressure gradient south of the upper low will continue to produce gusty west-northwest surface flow into early evening before weakening. A pleasant day is in store under the ridge Sunday with plenty of sunshine, light west to northwest surface winds, and high temperatures near seasonal normals.
Will let the highlights end at 19Z. Models have the upper closed low now kansas to continue to move eastward this afternoon. Closed low over southeast Colorado early this morning and this feature will track into Kansas this afternoon. Despite large scale subsidence moving in this afternoon, the flow aloft will be straight northerly as high pressure builds in from the Northern Rockies through tonight.
Its a broad trough aloft with weak surface features which is why we are seeing spread in the models.
The latest operational models favor the south-central mountains overall with a quick shot of SSE upslope flow into the CNTRL mountains Sunday morning as the low shifts quickly south through the SRN Idaho border. Conditions improve fairly quickly late Sunday night as the low drifts further south of the region and colder/drier air spills over the divide into the Snake River Plain.
A few clouds will pass overhead today as an upper level trough passes to the north. Clear sky conditions and generally light winds prevail over the region this morning as high pressure builds in from the eastern Pacific.
A fairly weak longwave trough making its way across the Upper Great Lakes region today is accompanied by just enough moisture to support some low-end PoPs within the WSW/SW wind belts this afternoon. As for temperatures, went cooler than previous thinking for some locations, particularly in the W where they've largely stagnated.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows general troughing extending from the Hudson Bay southwestward thru the central CONUS. A compact vort max is evident across the central Plains near the base of this trough. Pockets of enhanced midlevel to upper-level moisture are racing southward thru the northern High Plains on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned ridge, supporting some snow shower activity across southern MT/far northern WY. Closer to the trof axis across western SD, enhanced midlevel moisture is materializing as snow showers and flurries. As the midlevel trof over the region gradually shifts eastward this evening into tonight, a low-level baroclinic zone approaching in its wake will support a period of warm-air advection and isentropic ascent from eastern MT into northeastern WY/far western SD.
Southern stream energy and an associated 500mb low over the southern Rockies will phase with the northern stream resulting in the development of a strengthening mid level trof that by Sunday will end up moving east from over the Plains to the Mississippi Valley region. Any impacts to road may be limited to bridges and overpasses. Sunday, with the mid level trof hanging over the area, and moisture seen within it (at times), we may see a mix back and forth of very light rain or light snow (that won't stick).
TFJ An upper ridge will move through Montana today. Meanwhile, two troughs over the Gulf of Alaska and the Aleutians will move toward the Alaskan Peninsula. The eastern most trough will move onshore in British Columbia today, and accelerated to the southeast as the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska builds. This trough begins to split over Idaho, with the southern portion forming into a closed- low and moving toward the Four Corners. The northern portion stays more as a trough, and combined, this will aid in broad lift to support snow for central Montana on Sunday. A strong pressure gradient behind Sunday's cold front will bring northwest winds gusting up to 30-40 mph, especially near the Little Rockies.
The island chain has been rain-free, although the dry streak may be broken in the next couple of hours as light showers approach the Lower Keys.
1057 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2023 The low pressure is currently lifting out over the Plains leaving us under northerly flow. High temps today will run 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday in the wake of a cold front. The next low pressure system will arrive over the northern Great Basin early tomorrow and continue progressing southward during the day.
Latest models support current forecast of light snow tonight as an upper trough comes in from the north.
(Through Tonight) Light to moderate rain will continue to overspread the region from the southwest through Tonight, as a warm front lifts northward across area. Temperatures Tonight will be above normal due to the warm front, with lows in the lower to mid 50s.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Today an upper low moves across the nrn edge of Panhandle with a trough dragging behind it. After the trough passes over the region will get brief ridging aloft Sunday but the next upper low will be on its way from ID down to nrn AZ.
Temperatures will be mild today, with afternoon highs mainly in the low to mid 60s.
An upper ridge was building to our west over the Northern Rockies this afternoon, with a tilted trough moving off to our east. Afternoon temperatures ranged from the upper teens in the Turtle Mountains to the lower 30s in the southwest. On Sunday, the ridge moves overhead but also flattens, leading to another seasonably mild day with highs from the mid 20s east to mid 30s southwest.
Have also started to see a bit of stratus lift into portions of NE Nebraska and NW Iowa in response to the upper level low just south of our area. With limited mixing, recent moisture, and a stout inversion in place, look for yet another round of fog and freezing fog to be possible through the overnight period. Should see weak, albeit brief, upper level ridging begin to build overhead Sunday, as the aforementioned upper level low continues it journey northeastward.
Mean layer ridging has shifted east over the past 24-hours, corroborated by the 12Z FL RAOBs. An area of high pressure will continue to build over the Eastern Seaboard today, then move offshore into the western North Atlantic tonight.
Highs Sunday will be below normal across the area with portions of central Kansas struggling to go above freezing.
Satellite water vapor imagery continues to show an upper low moving across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, with a trough extending south across far west Texas. Winds have been gusty in the 20 to 25 mph range this afternoon in the wake of a Pacific cold front that moves across the area earlier today. With clear skies and lighter winds overnight, we will see temperatures fall into the lower 30s by morning. Afternoon highs on Sunday will be slightly cooler, with highs in the upper 50s.
1147 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Make sure to grab your coat as you head out the door this morning! A Pacific front moved through overnight and temperatures took a tumble due to light winds and clear skies, falling below freezing for those west of a line from Midland to Fort Stockton. An upper trough will move over the Texas Panhandle today with drier air moving into our region.
Eventually this saturates overnight, but at least initially there would be questions of ice in the cloud and/or if the near sfc saturation would be deep enough to support drizzle production (freezing drizzle in this case). Added some freezing drizzle potential in the evening, then snow overnight with accums generally under 1/2 inch.
But the ridge will move overhead tonight with warm air at mid levels moving in before a cold front drops into the area from the NW Sunday. Sunday, NW winds kick in during the afternoon - with gusts into the 30s and 40s! This shouldn't drift too much snow in Phillips and Valley counties as freezing rain on the 15th made the snowpack quite crusty.
600 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 A series of progressive occluding cold fronts will move across the Lower Mississippi valley over the next seven days.
514 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level low ejecting toward south-central Kansas this afternoon will continue to move away from the forecast area tonight with short wave ridging moving over the forecast area Sunday. A fairly tight surface pressure gradient south of the upper low will continue to produce gusty west-northwest surface flow into early evening before weakening. A pleasant day is in store under the ridge Sunday with plenty of sunshine, light west to northwest surface winds, and high temperatures near seasonal normals.
558 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) Coastal low/trof should track east of the region early this evening and bring an end to the precip across southeast and coastal parts of the area. A cold front will make its way into the area late tonight.
A series of progressive occluding cold fronts will move across the Lower Mississippi valley over the next seven days.
SMW A series of progressive occluding cold fronts will move across the Lower Mississippi valley over the next seven days.
The high resolution models keep this going into early evening. Models have upper ridging move eastward across the the CWA late tonight and Sunday. Upper level trough over the Great Basin dives south and closes off near Las Vegas.
707 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 (00Z TAFS) Mid to high level clouds should continue to stream over the Peninsula as warm front lifts north tonight. Gusty southerly winds prevailing after the late morning hours, as cold front approaches the state. Cooler temperatures are expected today for areas along and north of the frontal boundary. So high temperatures across the forecast area this afternoon will range from the middle 60s along the Nature Coast into the lower 80s in SWFL. Then, overnight lows will remain relatively mild with lows early Sunday morning ranging from the lower 50s north to the lower 60s further south.
535 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Today an upper low moves across the nrn edge of Panhandle with a trough dragging behind it. After the trough passes over the region will get brief ridging aloft Sunday but the next upper low will be on its way from ID down to nrn AZ.
826 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 Warm front should continue to lift north tonight keeping the highest rain chances north of the I-4 corridor. Slightly warmer lows and afternoon highs are anticipated behind the fropa. Then, showers and isolated chances for storms increase through the afternoon as cold front associated with the parent low pressure approaches the area. (00Z TAFS) Mid to high level clouds should continue to stream over the Peninsula as warm front lifts north tonight. Gusty southerly winds prevailing after the late morning hours, as cold front approaches the state.
303 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2023 A relatively quiet weather day today as ridging increases across the region. The transitory ridge axis will pass through overnight, with a low pressure system dropping south into northern NV/UT by sunrise Sunday.
Winds will become gusty on Sunday in the higher elevations. Northerly ridgetop winds will become gusty during the day Sunday, particularly over the S portion of the area.
1039 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level low ejecting toward south-central Kansas this afternoon will continue to move away from the forecast area tonight with short wave ridging moving over the forecast area Sunday. A fairly tight surface pressure gradient south of the upper low will continue to produce gusty west-northwest surface flow into early evening before weakening. A pleasant day is in store under the ridge Sunday with plenty of sunshine, light west to northwest surface winds, and high temperatures near seasonal normals.
1028 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2023 A relatively quiet weather day today as ridging increases across the region. The transitory ridge axis will pass through overnight, with a low pressure system dropping south into northern NV/UT by sunrise Sunday.
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT: Light snow this afternoon/evening remains on track as the upper level low/trough continues to lift east/northeast into tomorrow morning, phasing with the northern wave stream. Road temperatures just above freezing should help mitigate impacts this afternoon, though some partially covered roads could cause some minor travel impacts tonight in the south as well as if any snow melts this afternoon and then refreezes after dark. Temperatures remain fairly similar to today with lows in the teens to 20s and highs in the low 20s to low 30s.
Scattered to widespread showers have formed over northern Malheur and eastern Baker and Harney counties, in the Lower Treasure Valley (and just now moving into the Upper Treasure Valley), and over the West Central and Boise Mountain zones.
This system will have minimal impacts given the light snow amounts and sfc temps which will moderate through the lower to middle 30s today.
Tranquil conditions are likely throughout the period as weak ridging aloft shifts eastward through the Colorado Rockies today, and farther east into the Western High Plains tonight while a much drier air mass dominates the region.
349 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the central plains and another over the upper Great Lakes this morning with a closed low in the Pacific NW. The trough moves to the east and the closed low drops south into the central Rockies by 00z Mon. Clouds will continue to be stubborn in leaving and made some adjustments to put more cloud cover in as there is really nothing to scour out the low level moisture.
931 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2023 Current analysis shows an upper level ridge moving into the region under northerly flow aloft. A jet streak aloft has accompanied this ridge and has likely been the culprit of keeping just enough lift around to support light showers earlier this evening. It will be chilly tonight with lows in the teens for the lower elevations and even cooler in those lower valley spots. The high resolution models keep this going into early evening. Models have upper ridging move eastward across the the CWA late tonight and Sunday. Upper level trough over the Great Basin dives south and closes off near Las Vegas.
1049 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Today an upper low moves across the nrn edge of Panhandle with a trough dragging behind it. After the trough passes over the region will get brief ridging aloft Sunday but the next upper low will be on its way from ID down to nrn AZ.
1029 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 (Tonight) Showers associated with a low pressure system over Lousiana continue to overspread the forecast area from south to north this evening.
This along with a large high pressure system stretching along the east coast and adjacent Atlantic is slowly firmed up east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters this evening. Expect overnight temperatures to struggle to fall out of the lower 70s with dew points lingering near 70.
228 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Upper level trough and weak low pressure has brought light snow to much of the dvn cwa beginning last evening through the overnight hours. As low pressure tracks from the Deep South to the mid Atlantic states, north winds will increase to around 10 mph by this afternoon with any lingering fog dissipating by noon. Tonight: Becoming partly cloudy as high pressure ridge builds into the area. A colder night is expected considering some snow cover with lows bottoming out in the teens nw to the lower 20s se.
1125 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) Coastal low/trof should track east of the region early this evening and bring an end to the precip across southeast and coastal parts of the area. A cold front will make its way into the area late tonight.
The upper level trough and its attendant cloud shield as evident on water vapor satellite imagery overnight is expected to progressively pass the forecast area today. Trough antecedent subsiding mid level dry air erodes sky cover in select models.
A weak trough will shift across central ND and western SD this afternoon. With little movement to push the fog out today, expect fog to linger across the higher terrain of eastern SD through this evening.
Soundings in the area once again show good low level saturation until the 900mb inversion, and while there is some suggestion at improvement through the day it is likely that the low stratus and patchy fog will persist much of the day.
WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure transitioning eastward through the Central Plains. Near the surface, high pressure is building in across the Colorado Rockies. Midday mesoanalysis placed the strong midlevel cyclone just south of Dodge City. Sunshine is expected Sunday, courtesy of a transitory midlevel ridge that will build over the high plains by late afternoon in between systems. Where the deepest snowpack is melting, these locations will stay below freezing Sunday. Otherwise, the mildest temperatures in the lower 40s will be found adjacent to Oklahoma. Ridge axis over the high plains will move over SW KS Sunday night, while high pressure builds at the surface to near 1029 mb.