Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
110 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 Snow and rain this afternoon will change to all snow tonight and continuing into Monday as a low pressure system passes to the southeast. Jet ascent within SW flow ahead of an approaching midwest trough will maintain widespread precipitation this afternoon and evening across the region. This should keep any elevated warm layer near the 0 degree isotherm and sfc temperatures dipping to around freezing at onset, before rising slightly above freezing as time progresses this afternoon. Impacts should be minimal with road temperatures largely above freezing. The Winter Weather Advisory is still out for Eastern Tucker there still may be some spots of freezing rain with a couple of sites still reporting 32F, and still some room for additional sfc wet bulbing.
However, pressure falls ahead of the storm system will result in an increase to southeast winds after midnight that will help lows tonight warmer than this morning's. Warm advection from the southeast winds will be offset by increasing high clouds with highs in line with today's, except for several degrees warmer across the southern Rolling Plains where insolation will be most prolonged Monday afternoon.
The upper level ridge will move eastward Monday across the southern plains as a 500mb low/trough across the western United States drops southward across the southwest United States tonight into Monday. high pressure across west-central Texas will move eastward tonight allowing winds to veer to the east. Low pressure will develop and deepen across northern Mexico into southwest New Mexico Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Temperatures tonight will fall to near or just below freezing by early Mon morning.
This could be accompanied by spotty freezing drizzle, then some blowing and drifting snow through Monday afternoon As of 2 pm, southwest winds were beginning to increase across the Devils Lake region, but were still pretty light elsewhere. There is a warm layer ahead of this system that could bring spotty freezing drizzle to the area mainly late tonight.
What snow remains is very light and is not accumulating given the low intensity and marginal surface temperatures. -- Light lake effect/enhanced snow possible Mon night/Tues -- A cold front will sag into the northern Great Lakes on Monday and this will increase moisture and lift during this time frame over the lake.
(Monday through Sunday) Monday is expected to be a transition day with high pressure in control at the surface and aloft with temperatures near normal for this time of year.
106 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 A low pressure system will move northeast across the Tennessee and upper Ohio Valleys today, bringing mainly rain and snow to the region. A chance of rain and snow will linger into tonight and Monday as an upper level trough crosses the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
An upper level low will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight producing rain showers or sprinkles then depart overnight as high pressure returns to the region.
Though not in the forecast due to low confidence, BUFKIT forecast soundings still hint at a brief window of low-level saturation which could result in freezing drizzle. By Monday night, high pressure noses in from the south and winds should decrease.
151 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 Low pressure will track along the coast into this evening.
As the warm front lifts north of the area, warmer than average temperatures are expected, ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s for all locations. An isolated shower can't be ruled out this afternoon and evening along west- central Florida through the Nature Coast, but the better chances for rainfall will be during the overnight hours as a cold front moves south across the region. The front will also bring in slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow to start the work week.
Tonight the clouds looks to persist as the current cloud deck expands back up through MN and into southern Ontario, but the 12z HREF hints at this deck thinning tonight as high pressure ridge works its way across the region into Monday, which could lead to some peaks of sun for the start of the work week. Highs should be right around, to slightly below freezing. Highs will be right around freezing.
low level inversion will continue to trap moisture near the surface, keeping cloudy skies across the area, despite brief ridging building over the western Great Lakes. Could have some very light snow fall out of the low cloud deck at times, aided by moisture from ski hills/factories/plants across the area. Lack of mid-level moisture at times could lead to a little drizzle and freezing drizzle but threat appears to low to include in the forecast. West/southwest winds will become a little gusty through the day ahead of the trough, gusting to 25 mph. trough will be exiting the area in the evening, with lingering snow showers and flurries ending.
Gusts 20-30 kt over the higher terrain this afternoon.
950 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2023 Today, the upper trough will move further east across the Midwest as a weak upper ridge moves over the Rockies and the High Plains. Cloud cover is expected to increase tonight to become mostly cloudy as the upper trough swings over the area while the closed low moves across Arizona. Overnight lows looks to be slightly warmer with temperatures in the low to mid teens.
1244 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the central plains and another over the upper Great Lakes this morning with a closed low in the Pacific NW. The trough moves to the east and the closed low drops south into the central Rockies by 00z Mon. Clouds will continue to be stubborn in leaving and made some adjustments to put more cloud cover in as there is really nothing to scour out the low level moisture. The ridge shifts east during the day Monday as a clipper pushes through Ontario and its trailing cold front moves from Minnesota into the western UP by the early evening.
1131 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 12Z upper air analysis/GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends depict a longwave upper level trough extending from Ontario back through the Upper Midwest and into the Central and Southern Plains. CJC Showers remain in the region today as an upper level low moves across the region.
With upper level ridging back in place through the Rockies and high plains, northwest flow regime is taking a hold of the CWA for the short term forecast.
1049 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2023 09z surface analysis had weak high over the eastern Dakotas into northeast CO and trough from central MT into northeastern WY. Nighttime microphysics RGB/observations depicted fog over Tripp County and near Pine Ridge. Water vapour had upper low spinning into ID, which will be the main weather maker in the near term.
When that deck finally pushed east of DIA earlier this morning, the temperatures dropped several degrees with the low temperature this morning (12 F) occurring well over an hour past sunrise. Upstream high pressure ridge aloft will shift over Eastern Colorado by this evening. Expect only a few degrees of warming with most locations on the plains rising close to freezing. However the weaker northern branch and weak cold front associated with this low will move into northern Colorado later tonight with shallow upslope developing and slow saturation in the low levels. As the upper level trough continues to deepen south, light snowfall will impact the mountains and foothills Monday morning.
Temperature trend for some central and eastern portions continue to be cooler than previous forecast. A quick moving cold front and clipper system still looks to push through tonight into Monday. Current surface analysis places modest ridge passing over the Northern Plains. Upper level analysis places low/trough over the Midwest into the Southern Plains, with ridge over the Central Rockies stretching into the Canadian Plains. As we head into the end of the week and the start of the upcoming week, models continue to depict a large area of low pressure developing south into the Hudson Bay region, which look to bring an Arctic cold front or two into the region and much colder temperatures.
A cold front, currently draped from northern Lincoln County into central Inyo County, will continue to push south throughout the day.
high clouds will increase in coverage and thickness ahead of an upper level trough well to the northwest of the area and an upper level low pressure area moving south into southwest Arizona.
(Through Tonight) Surface warm front will lift just to the north this afternoon. Prefrontal trough will move into interior counties around sunset, then move southeast across the area through around midnight. The cold front itself will follow by a few hours. The main line of convection is expected to develop on the prefrontal trough. The potential exists for a few strong to severe storms in the prefrontal trough line of convection, in addition to storms that form ahead of it this afternoon in the warm sector.
Strong winds will occur in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada tonight through Monday afternoon. Fog is possible the next few mornings in the San Joaquin Valley with overnight lows around freezing. It was another chilly morning across the San Joaquin Valley with freezing temperatures observed across many rural areas, generally from 30 to 32 degrees. An upper low dropping south over the Great Basin today will bring a period of strong northeasterly winds to the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada later today through Monday afternoon.
As an upper- level trough moves across the region tonight, the low-levels will remain saturated, possibly over a deep enough layer to get some light drizzle or some recurrence of fog.
Temperatures at both Key West and Marathon remained at or above 75 degrees last night, which is impressive (or unimpressive for those that want cooler temperatures. Decreasing geopotential heights were sampled at all significant levels, which indicates that the mean layer ridging has continued its trek eastward. The island chain will likely remain dry this afternoon due to the even drier air moving through the coastal waters south and west of the Lower Keys. From synopsis, high pressure just off the Eastern Seaboard will continue to slide eastward into the west-central Atlantic through tonight.
At LSE, we could see some improvement to MVFR ceilings this afternoon but the low stratus deck persists.
Strong north winds today and tomorrow in the wake of a passing cold front. Looking at visible satellite, there's not much to suggest the presence of a cold front other than a few clouds in eastern Lincoln County.
Winds are fairly light still, generally 5 to 8 knots, which is just not enough yet, apparently, to mix down any warmer air just off the surface. Though not in the forecast due to low confidence, BUFKIT forecast soundings still hint at a brief window of low-level saturation which could result in freezing drizzle. By Monday night, high pressure noses in from the south and winds should decrease.
605 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 An upper level low will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight producing rain showers or sprinkles then depart overnight as high pressure returns to the region.
A Pacific weather system with an associated Canadian cold front will bring areas of light snow to the Treasure State today, with breezy to windy westerly winds through the evening.
A strong ridge is centered offshore near 132W longitude. A drying and stabilizing air mass will result in another night and morning of mainly west side valley low clouds and fog and freezing fog, but with a more typical, faster/earlier dissipation on Monday morning. The ridge will gradually build into the area beginning Monday night. This will produce areas of night and morning low clouds and fog/freezing fog.
645 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 Scattered snow showers will be observed overnight as an upper level trough moves through the area. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region on Monday. A low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley during the middle part of the week, bringing the next chance for precipitation. Temperatures have risen to near or just above freezing. Mid level trough axis and any lingering pcpn will shift east of the area through Monday morning. Will lower temps a bit in areas with snow cover with highs on Monday in the low to mid 30s.
This trend should continue as cold front makes its way over the Peninsula through early Monday. Overnight lows drop into the low 50s along the Nature Coast but only down to the 60s south of the I-4 corridor. Afternoon highs will be much cooler with temperatures staying in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the state. Then, a cold front will push south overnight turning winds to the north and bringing rain further south.
532 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 A cold front is currently moving into far western North Dakota. After a fairly quiet evening with increasing clouds, a cold front associated with a clipper system will move across the state from west to east tonight. There could be pockets of freezing drizzle or freezing rain as well along and behind the front as the mid layers dry out, although confidence is not high in that happening or being impactful. High temperatures behind the front will be slightly cooler than today on Monday. Perhaps later in the week are better chances for accumulating light snow, although clusters analysis showing models are having a bit of disagreement on how far southwest to extend a trough off of the Hudson low.
Low temperatures will drop down to the mid 30s and high temperatures tomorrow will be in the high 40s to high 50s. Dry and cool conditions will be the general rule as high pressure builds across the area.
410 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 A trough is positioned from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes and the southern Mississippi River Valley.
As we get into this evening, the high pressure moving in will keep winds light and variable again with forecast soundings holding on to the low-level moisture in the lowest 0. Thus, would expect fog to remain an issue into tomorrow morning over much of the area, with the lowest visibilities likely north and west into central Iowa with visibilities less than a mile at times. The first of these is a trough dipping out of Canada tonight and swinging through the Upper Plains through the day tomorrow. As this trough/wave drops south during the day Monday, a closed-low moves into the southwest US.
Models show an upper low circulation, now over the desert southwest, to move southeastward into southern Arizona to be just west of El Paso by 00Z Monday late day.
However as temps dip below freezing overnight some icy/slick spots could develop and be present for the Monday morning commute. There is a slight concern for a bit freezing drizzle north/northwest of GRR overnight as the DGZ dries out with departure of mid level moisture/deformation zone. What snow remains is very light and is not accumulating given the low intensity and marginal surface temperatures. -- Light lake effect/enhanced snow possible Mon night/Tues -- A cold front will sag into the northern Great Lakes on Monday and this will increase moisture and lift during this time frame over the lake.
Dry and cool conditions will be the general rule as high pressure builds across the area.
540 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 A trough is positioned from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes and the southern Mississippi River Valley.
Low pressure area has moved over Nevada. On the backside of the low downslope winds have increased in the valley with gusts 30 to 45 mph. This is where temperatures are expected to cool off into the lower 30s and should be the coldest of the week.
(This evening through Monday) An upper ridge starts building in tonight along with weak high pressure down at the surface. Although some high cloudiness expected to dirty up the ridge across western Oklahoma by mid- morning, clear night skies early on combined with light to calm surface winds will favor strong radiational cooling with temperatures dropping well below freezing (20s) areawide tonight. Our flow aloft shifts out of the southwest Monday afternoon with a deepening trough digging across the U.
956 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 Scattered snow showers will be observed overnight as an upper level trough moves through the area. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region on Monday. A low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley during the middle part of the week, bringing the next chance for precipitation. The best coverage of snow showers will occur across our northern counties closer to the track of the low. Mid level trough axis and any lingering pcpn will shift east of the area through Monday morning. Will lower temps a bit in areas with snow cover with highs on Monday in the low to mid 30s.
915 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 Snow, mixed with some rain, will change to all snow later tonight and Monday as low pressure crosses the region.
504 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 (This evening through Monday Night) Dry, seasonable wx will prevail tonight and Monday with surface-mid level ridging in control.
With the cold front will come a band of light snow across the Dakotas early Monday. It should break up some as it heads east toward central MN, but forecast soundings do show a brief period of saturation accompanying the cold front. This should be enough for a bit of light snow or flurries, so maintained the low PoPs.
Temperatures are in the low 40s and should fall into the low to mid 30s overnight. SMW An upper level low will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight producing rain showers or sprinkles then depart overnight as high pressure returns to the region.
610 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 Snow, mixed with some rain south of Interstate 70, will change to all snow later tonight and Monday as low pressure crosses the region.
Possible slick spots may also develop on untreated surfaces with the below freezing temperatures. A brief window (several hours) of clearing of the lower stratus/fog could occur for a time on Monday as winds increase from the SW ahead of an approaching trough. However, even if this occurs, stratus will likely return later in the day as a trough moves through, shifting winds NW with perhaps a few flurries. Given the lower confidence of any shorter windows of clearing, have not included in this update.
After a fairly quiet evening with increasing clouds, a cold front associated with a clipper system will move across the state from west to east tonight. There could be pockets of freezing drizzle or freezing rain as well along and behind the front as the mid layers dry out, although confidence is not high in that happening or being impactful. High temperatures behind the front will be slightly cooler than today on Monday. Perhaps later in the week are better chances for accumulating light snow, although clusters analysis showing models are having a bit of disagreement on how far southwest to extend a trough off of the Hudson low.
Northerly winds will remain gusty over the next couple of days, particularly along the near coast and coastal ridges.
701 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 Snow, mixed with some rain south of Interstate 70, will change to all snow later tonight and Monday as low pressure crosses the region.
710 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 (Through Tonight) Surface warm front will lift just to the north this afternoon. Prefrontal trough will move into interior counties around sunset, then move southeast across the area through around midnight. The cold front itself will follow by a few hours. The main line of convection is expected to develop on the prefrontal trough. The potential exists for a few strong to severe storms in the prefrontal trough line of convection, in addition to storms that form ahead of it this afternoon in the warm sector.
(This evening through Monday Night) Dry, seasonable wx will prevail tonight and Monday with surface-mid level ridging in control.
532 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 (This evening through Monday) An upper ridge starts building in tonight along with weak high pressure down at the surface. Although some high cloudiness expected to dirty up the ridge across western Oklahoma by mid- morning, clear night skies early on combined with light to calm surface winds will favor strong radiational cooling with temperatures dropping well below freezing (20s) areawide tonight. Our flow aloft shifts out of the southwest Monday afternoon with a deepening trough digging across the U.
406 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2023 A robust cutoff upper-level low pressure deepens and drops southward across Utah this afternoon. Forcing with this system will mostly miss Wyoming to the west and south, but the open trough to the north will still provide an area of broad lift across the state as a weak cold front pushes southward. Expect some gusty north winds to accompany the snow for northern Johnson County and Sweetwater County as the cold front moves through this evening and overnight. Despite the cold front, basins east of the Divide are expected to be warmer than last night, as mixing and cloud cover will keep cold pools from forming. Monday will only be a few degrees cooler than today, given the incoming air mass has maritime origins.
A brief window (several hours) of clearing of the lower stratus/fog could occur for a time on Monday as winds increase from the SW ahead of an approaching trough. However, even if this occurs, stratus will likely return later in the day as a trough moves through, shifting winds NW with perhaps a few flurries. Given the lower confidence of any shorter windows of clearing, have not included in this update.
717 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Cold front is currently pushing through northwest ND. A cold front is currently moving into far western North Dakota. After a fairly quiet evening with increasing clouds, a cold front associated with a clipper system will move across the state from west to east tonight. There could be pockets of freezing drizzle or freezing rain as well along and behind the front as the mid layers dry out, although confidence is not high in that happening or being impactful. High temperatures behind the front will be slightly cooler than today on Monday. Perhaps later in the week are better chances for accumulating light snow, although clusters analysis showing models are having a bit of disagreement on how far southwest to extend a trough off of the Hudson low.
Late tonight, fog, light snow, and possibly freezing drizzle will enter the area as well. This could be accompanied by spotty freezing drizzle, then some blowing and drifting snow through Monday afternoon As of 2 pm, southwest winds were beginning to increase across the Devils Lake region, but were still pretty light elsewhere. There is a warm layer ahead of this system that could bring spotty freezing drizzle to the area mainly late tonight.
Additionally, temperatures are running a few warmer than yesterday afternoon, which are also getting assistance from offshore flow. Speaking of offshore flow, a passing upper level low to the east is helping to set the stage for offshore flow. The biggest increase in wind has been over the higher peaks and aligned gaps/passes. Rest of the upcoming work week looks quiet as high pressure builds over the region. Upper level low has moved into the Desert Southwest, which is responsible for the gusty northerly winds over much of the area. SFO Bridge Approach. King Tides, which result in the highest high tides and the lowest low tides of the year, will continue through weekend. Winds diminish through the day Monday as the responsible upper low moves out of the Desert Southwest.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft shifting eastward through the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a closed upper low is dropping southward into the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, an area of high pressure is drifting eastward across western/central Kansas. With upper level ridging back in place through the Rockies and high plains, northwest flow regime is taking a hold of the CWA for the short term forecast.