Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will approach northwestern portions of the forecast area by the end of the forecast, with CIGS dropping to IFR levels along and just ahead of the front. /16 (Now through Sunday) Today: no rain, but it'll be warmer. Expecting highs this afternoon to warm into the lower to mid 70s west of the Alabama River and into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees east of the river. Meanwhile, at the immediate coast, lows in the lower to mid 50s are generally expected. Highs Sunday afternoon are then forecast to top out in the lower to mid 60s north of Highway 84 and in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees south.
(This evening through Sunday) Winds will continue to decrease through the evening as high pressure settles over the area tonight.
However, tonight through Sunday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur as a weak cold front oozes through the BRO CWFA.
The region should see warmer temperatures on Sunday as 925 mb temps warm above 0C across much of the CWA.
1129 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 Low pressure and an associated cold front will track through the region today into early Sunday with numerous showers.
Tonight and Sunday Quiet conditions are expected through this forecast period as high pressure remains overhead. As the high pressure gradually moves overhead later this afternoon, additional thinning of the clouds is possible in central and north-central WI. The combination of this low-level moisture and light winds overnight will result in fog development, especially in central and north- central WI, with the potential for freezing fog to develop as well. Any locations where freezing fog develops may result in some slick spots on roadways and surfaces. With the high pressure remaining overhead on Sunday, clouds should dissipate by Sunday afternoon with high temperatures slightly above normal in the middle 20s to low 30s.
Despite this high, lingering low level moisture beneath a H9 centered subsidence inversion continues to support plenty of clouds, this despite plenty of dry mid and upper level air. Sunday, The high pressure continues over the Upper Great Lakes and continues over the region through Sunday night.
348 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 Drier and cooler conditions are expected for the start of the week with a chilly start Sunday morning.
The storm system will drag a cold front through Arkansas today and tonight. Clouds will break up as high pressure builds over the region from the Plains. While it will be slightly cooler on Sunday behind the front, temperatures will remain a little warmer than seasonal.
A warm front spans east from Little Rock and is currently lifting north through the Tennessee Valley, providing lift needed to keep showers going north of the AL/TN line. High temps will range from the lower 50s across southern TN to the lower 60s south of the TN River.
251 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 High pressure will linger over the region through this weekend. A weak cold front is forecast to move through Sunday night, followed by another area of high pressure. Weak high pressure will remain across the forecast area through tonight. Given several hours of good radiational cooling conditions, I will side with the cooler members of MOS for low temperatures tonight. High pressure north of the area will shift to the east and off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. This will somewhat offset the expected afternoon warm advection, resulting in high temps 2-3 degrees warmer than Saturday.
904 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 Dry weather is expected through part of Sunday under high pressure. A wintry mix returns later Sunday and Sunday night with crossing low pressure. High pressure then returns dry weather and above average temperatures through the middle of the upcoming week. Stratocu has eroded on the south side of the cloud shield under surface ridging and dry low level air.
Fog/freezing fog remains the primary concern through the weekend.
706 PM MST Sat Jan 7 2023 Evening Update: Areas of freezing fog will likely develop overnight, and have expanded the coverage to include more of the valleys and lower elevation locations.
424 PM MST Sat Jan 7 2023 A transitory ridge will pull across the area tonight with dry conditions with mainly light winds. Gusts along Outer Drive on the south side of Casper could see gusts around 50 mph as well as on ridge tops in southeast Fremont and western Natrona County. Based on the above surface pattern, and the High-Resolution Window Finite-Volume Cubed (HiResW-FV3) model boundary layer winds around 45 knots correlates to 50 to 65 mph on Outer Drive on the south side of Casper.
Rain likely on Sunday as a low pressure system moves across the area.
746 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 An area of low pressure tracking from eastern Oklahoma into the Ohio River Valley will bring a period of light wintry precipitation to central Illinois tonight into Sunday morning. HRRR forecast soundings for Springfield show the lower atmosphere showing some more steady moistening after 9 pm, and the higher precip chances will begin late evening between I-72 and I-70. 20z/2pm surface analysis shows high pressure across Minnesota while a 1018mb low spins over western Arkansas. Despite temps well above freezing, think enough evaporational cooling will occur within the atmospheric column to support light snow. with a mix of rain/freezing rain/snow further south. Secondary and untreated roadways will likely be snow-covered and slick during the morning, but any snow/ice will rapidly melt on the roads toward midday as temps climb above freezing.
However, the low level WAA that has begun may be enough to steady temperatures out for the rest of the night. The region should see warmer temperatures on Sunday as 925 mb temps warm above 0C across much of the CWA.
Low to mid- level clouds quickly begin to overspread the area from SW to NE this evening as weak low pressure approaches. Road sfc temps are also likely to remain above freezing, so no travel impacts are expected. Lows tonight will range from around 30 degrees in southern IN and the northern Bluegrass to the lower 40s in southern KY.
High temperatures for the day look to range from the low 50s south to the mid 30s to north. Areas of fog cover and low stratus may keep temperatures slightly warmer than currently forecast. Westerly ridging from today breaks down to more zonal flow with winds having a more westerly component.
an upper ridge will slide eastward from the Northern Rockies this evening to the Great Plains by Sunday afternoon. This change in the flow pattern will bring southwesterly mid-level winds that cross the Rocky Mountains, resulting in lee-side troughing or lower sea-level pressure east of the mountains.
551 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 Have lowered overnight lows in the east, as the warm front across the west as not moved. Through Sunday, the ridge axis will move over the state with 850mb temperatures of 3 to 5 degrees C. A mild change in temperatures accompany each front, with the warmer days seeing highs in the 20s and 30s and the cooler in the teens and 20s.
520 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Cool surface ridging continued to build south this afternoon on light north winds. As clouds clear, the axis of surface ridging will shift across our domain and set the stage for healthy radiational cooling. Nudged NBM's minT a bit lower across the board given the favorable pattern and cooler MOS numbers.
By morning, clouds will clear with light winds allowing temperatures to fall close to freezing along and north of I-20 with 30s to the south. Ridging builds in Sunday afternoon as winds veer back to the south.
The trough will push a weak cold front with Pacific origins slowly southeastward through the area mostly tonight, but only finally clearing the Pine Belt by early tomorrow afternoon. Lows tonight will be mild with rain falling, mostly in the low to mid 50s F. Highs on Sunday will continue to be mild, but a bit drier, highs mostly in the low to mid 60s F with dewpoints sinking into the 40s F by early evening.
Very dry airmass continues over the region with minor ridging aloft beginning to nudge Nward from the N Carib.
525 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 An area of low pressure tracking from eastern Oklahoma into the Ohio River Valley will bring a period of light wintry precipitation to central Illinois tonight into Sunday morning. A mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow is anticipated further south, with little or no snow and ice accumulation. 20z/2pm surface analysis shows high pressure across Minnesota while a 1018mb low spins over western Arkansas. Despite temps well above freezing, think enough evaporational cooling will occur within the atmospheric column to support light snow. with a mix of rain/freezing rain/snow further south. Secondary and untreated roadways will likely be snow-covered and slick during the morning, but any snow/ice will rapidly melt on the roads toward midday as temps climb above freezing.
Early afternoon satellite imagery with surface obs snowed high pressure and mostly sunny skies across the region.
734 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 Drier and cooler conditions are expected for the start of the week with a chilly start Sunday morning.
537 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) A weak cold front slowly works into the CWA tonight, potentially through Zapata, Jim Hogg, and western Starr counties by midnight before inching east. POPs may be running a little high, especially post fropa, with guidance building back the chance of showers along the coast in the wake of the front Sunday night with a weak coastal trough of low pressure. Sunday highs reach the low to mid 70s just ahead of the front in the mid to lower valley, with upper 60s behind.
The increasing low-level flow will aid in advisory level gusts across many exposed ridges and coastal areas, and also yield enhanced rainfall rates along south facing terrain due to orographic ascent.
ASOS sites across southeast Michigan depict temperatures ranging 30-34 F as of 20z, only a few degrees warmer than morning lows. Ridging comes to an end Sunday morning as a cutoff low meanders into the Ohio Valley on the northern periphery of the upper level jet. Temperatures will be similar to today, low to mid 30s, as passage of the high pressure center shields lower Michigan from influence of the surrounding thickness gradient.
522 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 (Through tonight ) Despite passage of cold front, temperatures are rather mild this afternoon with most cloud cover confined to far northeast OK and northwest AR.
(This afternoon through Sunday) A few showers have briefly skirted far north Georgia near the Tennessee border in the vicinity of a warm front which has lifted into southern Tennessee. The highest QPF will be across far north Georgia where localized totals a bit over an inch will be possible.
(The rest of tonight) Cooler, drier air will continue to filter in tonight which will allow lows to drop into the 20s and 30s.
509 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 (This evening through Sunday) The cold front is now south of the area. Temperatures are cooler this afternoon with 50s and 60s across much of the area. Overnight lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s and highs Sunday will be in the lower to mid 60s.
707 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) A cold front from near Lufkin to Texarkana to continue to shift southeast through the afternoon into this evening. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower 60s.
730 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Winds will continue to decrease through the evening as high pressure settles over the area tonight.
629 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 (Rest of today through Sunday) Drier, cooler air continues to advect into the region behind a cold front that has cleared into the Florida Straits. Abundant sunshine today will allow for temperatures to reach the 70s in most places with some pockets hitting the lower 80s. The pockets in the lower 80s, mainly the Everglades, will grow a bit on Sunday with most areas being a few degrees warmer overall. Tonight's temperatures will be dichotomy between the moderating influence of the Atlantic (60s) and the remnant drier, cooler air elsewhere (50s).
309 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 An area of low pressure tracking from eastern Oklahoma into the Ohio River Valley will bring a period of light wintry precipitation to central Illinois tonight into Sunday morning. A mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow is anticipated further south. 20z/2pm surface analysis shows high pressure across Minnesota while a 1018mb low spins over western Arkansas. Despite temps well above freezing, think enough evaporational cooling will occur within the atmospheric column to support light snow. with a mix of rain/freezing rain/snow further south. Secondary and untreated roadways will likely be snow-covered and slick during the morning, but any snow/ice will rapidly melt on the roads toward midday as temps climb above freezing.
538 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Most of the earlier rain has diminished and what is left is confined to areas near the TN/AL line near a warm front which has developed across the Tennessee Valley.
Mins in the U40s-L50S, perhaps a few degrees warmer along the immediate coast of Martin/SLCO. Benign/favorable boating conditions continue as high pressure building north of Fl produces NE-E winds near/below 10kt. Zonal flow aloft with flat ridging continues.
552 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 High pressure will linger over the region through this weekend. A weak cold front is forecast to move through Sunday night, followed by another area of high pressure. Weak high pressure will remain across the forecast area through tonight. Given several hours of good radiational cooling conditions, I will side with the cooler members of MOS for low temperatures tonight. High pressure north of the area will shift to the east and off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. This will somewhat offset the expected afternoon warm advection, resulting in high temps 2-3 degrees warmer than Saturday.
Thus, we will likely see slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
(Tonight) A surface warm front was draped west to east from a surface wave in central AR east through north, MS, AL into GA. The boundary sagged a bit south early this evening, with temperatures remaining in the 40s in southern TN and dipping back into the lower to middle 50s in north AL. Clusters of showers and a couple of thunderstorms have developed at the nose of the theta-E ridge at 850 mb across northwest AL spreading eastward. Showers and thunderstorm development will persist into the overnight hours in this axis, slowly migrating east by early Sunday morning as the surface wave moves east northeast into middle TN, and it's attendant cold front also pushes east.
These areas will be warmer and may also have very dry air descending.
Stratus field covering much of the area and seeing some reports of freezing fog especially with the lower vsbys.
1048 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Winds will continue to decrease through the evening as high pressure settles over the area tonight.
Ridge of high pressure overhead this morning. Ridge axis shifts east to the Panhandle by 12Z this morning.
826 PM MST Sat Jan 7 2023 Quiet evening today under mostly clear skies, except in the high country where the bank of high clouds is beginning to make its way overhead. These areas will be warmer and may also have very dry air descending.
122 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2023 High pressure will linger over the region through this weekend. A weak cold front is forecast to move through Sunday night, followed by another area of high pressure. Flat ridging will prevail aloft, while a meso-high off the coast gives way to a larger and stronger area of high pressure that builds south from New York, Pennsylvania and Virginia. High pressure north of the area will shift to the east and off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.
Otherwise, expect the forecast to stay on target with a cold front Sunday and widespread showers and isolated thunder. A positively-tilted trough will move further east over the Western Ohio and Tennessee River Valley Regions on Sunday. This will continue to support the advancement of a cold front further east into the state through the daytime hours.
1239 AM MST Sun Jan 8 2023 Mean central CONUS ridging will prevail in most of the period, supporting a mean gradual warming trend. The only exception is an expected upper trough which will cross the region Wed, supporting some rain and snow in portions of the area. Snow pack will continue to affect temps in the east, with cooler conds there. Much warmer temps on track for the end of the week, as a long wave ridge slowly shifts east supporting much warmer temps along with continued dry weather.
1255 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2023 Dry weather is expected through most of the day under high pressure. A wintry mix returns late today and tonight with crossing low pressure. High pressure then returns dry weather and above average temperatures through the middle of the upcoming week. An upper level low over the Central Plains will weaken as it slowly crosses from the Ohio River Valley to the Atlantic Coast tonight into Monday morning. Dry weather will quickly resume through the day Monday as the trough is replaced by sfc ridging and dry NW flow aloft, though snow showers may linger longest in higher terrain with upslope flow/cold advection/vort advection combo.
Have nudged highs above NBM a degree or two due to this and the low level thermal ridge being more centered overhead. Expecting much of the region to reach the lower 70s Monday.
302 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2023 Extensive low level cloudiness remains the most noteworthy feature as moisture remains trapped below a low level inversion associated with surface ridging over the area. This ridge will weaken today into tonight as a cutoff low over the mid Mississippi valley opens into a wave and skirts south of the area as it tracks through the Ohio Valley.
1122 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 An area of low pressure tracking from eastern Oklahoma into the Ohio River Valley will bring a period of light wintry precipitation to central Illinois tonight into Sunday morning. HRRR forecast soundings for Springfield show the lower atmosphere showing some more steady moistening after 9 pm, and the higher precip chances will begin late evening between I-72 and I-70. 20z/2pm surface analysis shows high pressure across Minnesota while a 1018mb low spins over western Arkansas. Despite temps well above freezing, think enough evaporational cooling will occur within the atmospheric column to support light snow. with a mix of rain/freezing rain/snow further south. Secondary and untreated roadways will likely be snow-covered and slick during the morning, but any snow/ice will rapidly melt on the roads toward midday as temps climb above freezing.
Have lowered overnight lows in the east, as the warm front across the west as not moved. Through Sunday, the ridge axis will move over the state with 850mb temperatures of 3 to 5 degrees C. A mild change in temperatures accompany each front, with the warmer days seeing highs in the 20s and 30s and the cooler in the teens and 20s.
1032 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 (The rest of tonight) Cooler, drier air will continue to filter in tonight which will allow lows to drop into the 20s and 30s.
1032 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Cool surface ridging continued to build south this afternoon on light north winds. As clouds clear, the axis of surface ridging will shift across our domain and set the stage for healthy radiational cooling. Nudged NBM's minT a bit lower across the board given the favorable pattern and cooler MOS numbers.
Expect warmer and drier weather through Monday across northern Arizona with high pressure in place.
(Today through Monday) At the time of this writing (around 07Z), the cold front has already cleared all of south-central Texas, and the risk for locally heavy rain and marginally severe weather has ended for our region. Given the weak nature of the cold front in terms of temperature change, we'll remain above average with lows in the 40s to mid 50s this morning and highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.
1032 PM MST Sat Jan 7 2023 A transitory ridge will pull across the area tonight with dry conditions with mainly light winds. Gusts along Outer Drive on the south side of Casper could see gusts around 50 mph as well as on ridge tops in southeast Fremont and western Natrona County. Based on the above surface pattern, and the High-Resolution Window Finite-Volume Cubed (HiResW-FV3) model boundary layer winds around 45 knots correlates to 50 to 65 mph on Outer Drive on the south side of Casper. Another transitory ridge develops Monday with dry conditions. The high resolution Convection Allowing Models (CAM) show the snow overspreading the far west between 22Z Sunday and 01Z Monday.
(This evening through Sunday) The cold front is now south of the area. Temperatures are cooler this afternoon with 50s and 60s across much of the area. Overnight lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s and highs Sunday will be in the lower to mid 60s.
The mild air mass and approaching upper ridge and full sun will allow temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above normal both today and tonight.
This will turn surface flow to southwesterly and help boost daytime temps a bit higher than seen yesterday, but a relatively cool start to the day will prevent temperatures from surging too high this afternoon with highs capped in the low/mid 60s.
Temperatures remain similar to the past few days, albeit slightly warmer. The kicker compared to yesterday is the westerly component should help funnel in slightly warmer air. This should help produce slightly warmer highs reaching the low 20s in the James River Valley and ranging into the mid to possibly upper 30s in far southwestern ND.
High pressure centered just north of the area becomes absorbed by another ridge that moves toward the Mid- Atlantic coast and offshore through today. Dry conditions will prevail across land areas, while over the coastal waters a few showers will be possible as they push eastward into tonight as base of mid/upper level trough approaches and pushes offshore overnight. Overnight lows will not be as chilly as they have been, with values in the low to mid 50s for much of east central FL.
1043 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 (This evening through Sunday) The cold front is now south of the area. Temperatures are cooler this afternoon with 50s and 60s across much of the area. Overnight lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s and highs Sunday will be in the lower to mid 60s.
1100 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) A weak cold front slowly works into the CWA tonight, potentially through Zapata, Jim Hogg, and western Starr counties by midnight before inching east. POPs may be running a little high, especially post fropa, with guidance building back the chance of showers along the coast in the wake of the front Sunday night with a weak coastal trough of low pressure. Sunday highs reach the low to mid 70s just ahead of the front in the mid to lower valley, with upper 60s behind.
326 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2023 Another beautiful day is underway across west central Florida as high pressure dominates the area.
1204 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2023 (Rest of today through Sunday) Drier, cooler air continues to advect into the region behind a cold front that has cleared into the Florida Straits. Abundant sunshine today will allow for temperatures to reach the 70s in most places with some pockets hitting the lower 80s. The pockets in the lower 80s, mainly the Everglades, will grow a bit on Sunday with most areas being a few degrees warmer overall. Tonight's temperatures will be dichotomy between the moderating influence of the Atlantic (60s) and the remnant drier, cooler air elsewhere (50s).
257 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023 Another quiet day across the area with minimal weather impacts as upper ridging builds. Nonetheless for much of the area we'll see warmer day time highs, with temps climbing into the low 20s in many places and upper teens in the cool spots.