Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1246 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) A broad area of weak upper troughing remains in place over the central plains states early this afternoon with weak northwest flow aloft analyzed over West Texas downstream of a fairly sharp upper ridge axis centered over New Mexico. Just how far southwest this activity makes it remains uncertain, but continuing elevated instability overnight and a modest enhancement of the low level jet will likely support a decaying cluster of storms over portions of the South Plains and far southern TX Panhandle during the early morning hours on Wednesday. The overall synoptic pattern will not change much on Wednesday aside from a slight eastward shift in the upper ridge axis.
342 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 High pressure at the surface through the first half of the weekend, but an upper trough tracks through tonight.
Rain chances will increase Wednesday evening and overnight as a backdoor cold front advances across the CWA. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible again mainly Wednesday evening and again on Thursday as a back door cold front drops into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will bring a temporary break in rain chances along with slightly cooler temperatures.
918 PM PDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A trough along the West Coast will keep a deep marine layer in place this week. Skies over the higher mountains and deserts will be mostly clear.
310 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Light rain will accompany a slow-moving cold front this morning, exiting the region by midday. A cooler and much drier airmass then settles in for the remainder of the work week. High pressure will then slowly build across the region through the remainder of the week. Rain Ending: Despite the cold front already pushing south of our forecast counties, a few bands of moderate rainfall developed overnight behind the front. Daily highs will be noticeably cooler today and Thursday, but clearing skies and a high June sun angle should still support afternoon temperatures in the low 80s. Of greater note will be overnight temps, which are forecast to dip into the low 50s. And we may not be done yet tweaking our forecast lows cooler. Temperatures appear to rebound a little warmer to close the week.
230 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A moisture starved cold front moves overhead tonight, followed by an upper level disturbance Wednesday. High pressure Thursday.
The high resolution models bring the convection into the plains by 00Z. Looking at Wednesday, the upper ridge center is over the Dakotas with weak southeasterly flow aloft for the CWA.
308 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 (Issued 308 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023) Today through Thursday: A slightly cooler and much drier airmass is building into the area this morning, in the wake of the frontal boundary that moved through yesterday. Northeast winds will be breezy at times today, with highs in the mid to upper 70s, cooler near Lake Michigan. High pressure builds southward tonight, with lows expected to fall into the mid 40s in many locations.
Dewpoints are expected to drop into the 30s during the afternoon and despite cooler temps generally in the 70s, relative humidity levels are likely to still drop into the 20 to 25 percent range. The lower dewpoints/drier air should allow for a chilly Wednesday night/Thursday morning with lows in the mid/upper 40s outside the immediate metro area.
The closed low pressure circulation over central California is continuing to send moisture north into the Northern Rockies.
1217 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 High pressure will shift offshore through tonight as a trough of low pressure lingers inland.
The warmest readings will continue to be in central Kansas at the lower elevations. An upper level trough along the west coast will persist through the weekend; but weak impulses will eject eastward across the plains ahead of the main trough.
121 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Low pressure over New Brunswick will gradually retrograde west towards Maine through Thursday.
304 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Satellite imagery shows clouds building into the FA from the north this morning as a backdoor cold front approaches with the chance for pcpn. Dewpoints and temperatures have been running a tad warmer. The 0z CAMs are in good agreement bringing the first round of showers and possibly a storm across portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky this morning as a H5 vort lobe rounds the base of a large upper-level trough over the northeast CONUS. Fropa will also mean a big temperature gradient with highs ranging from the upper 70s to upper 80s as the aformentioned cold front moves southwest. For the remainder of the week, cooler and drier conditions can be expected as a H5 omega pattern prevails.
1204 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) A broad upper level trough will continue over the eastern CONUS through Wednesday with a blocking ridge residing over the central CONUS. Lows Wednesday night a couple degrees warmer with a little more low level moisture, particularly south of I-10.
300 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Key messages: 1) Not as warm along with very dry airmass 2) Smoke aloft from Canada forest fires will linger tonight into Thursday Today: Backdoor cold front extended from the extreme eastern Dakotas to se IA and then to northern KY. The main message is that a northeast wind will bring a cooler and much drier airmass into the forecast area.
An upper low centered in California will continue to feed a stream of moisture into our area as it gradually moves northward into Nevada through Thursday. The closer proximity of the upper low on Thursday will bring a greater chance (>30 percent) for showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon across all areas. Temperatures will trend a few degrees cooler each day due to the increased cloud cover and precip.
The leading edge of the precipitation shield associated with the approaching cold front has moved in across the I-64 corridor. A massive, stacked low pressure system is spinning over the Canadian Maritimes this afternoon. Our mid/upper level flow around the system traces back well into Canada, and is sending another surface cold front southward. At the same time, virga falling from mid levels will also help to moisten the lower atmosphere. Much cooler and drier air then arrives behind the front on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, with clearing skies.
Temperatures will cool down afternoon highs into the lower 80s Wednesday and upper 70s Thursday.
Morning cold front is now well south of the state-line establishing cooler, drier northerly flow over SE MI. Skies clear from north to south over the course of the evening as said front pushes deeper into the Ohio Valley and Canadian high pressure slowly sinks into the Great Lakes. Given dewpoints in the upper 30s/40F, mostly clear skies (aside of elevated Canadian wildfire smoke), and persistent northerly CAA expect a much cooler night ahead as lows drop into the low to mid 40s for most of the region outside of Detroit.
446 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Unsettled weather expected through Wednesday, then a return to high pressure and dry conditions Thursday through the weekend. The surface cold front associated with this low will sag south over the next several hours and cross into the CWA later this morning/early afternoon. The start of this period will host the highest PoPs for the next several days. As the cold front continues to move south, PoPs will increase to Likelys across the entire CWA by around sunset tonight. Tonight's lows will be slightly cooler in the post-frontal air mass (upper 50s inland, low 60s near and along the coast).
25 (Tonight through Thursday night) A large scale trough will remain parked over the East Coast through the next several days, resulting in a weakness aloft persisting overhead through the short term period. At the surface, weak high pressure will continue to meander around the Gulf Coast, resulting in a light and variable flow at the surface. Otherwise, looking like a warm but fairly mild afternoon (when compared to seasonal norms) with temperatures currently ranging from the low 80s at a few spots to the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Temperature wise, tomorrow's highs will be near normal, in the upper 80s to near 90, while Thurs highs will warm a bit further into the low 90s areawide.
402 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A cold front will move south through the area today, bringing showers.
301 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 * Some rain this morning, mainly south * Cooler air for this afternoon and tonight Upper energy rotating around a large upper low across the northeastern USA will interact with a front across the southern forecast area to increase rain coverage some early this morning. Cooler and drier air will move in this afternoon and tonight. Temperatures will be cooler as cold advection occurs. Cooler air and clear to partly cloudy skies will allow temperatures to dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
A cold front will bring showers and storms this afternoon and evening, a few strong to isolated severe storms may occur. Today will begin a pattern change as a backdoor cold front pushes into the region from the northeast late this afternoon into this evening. A cooler airmass will move into the area behind the front. Storm coverage will be on the wane Thursday morning with temperatures in a more seasonably normal range in the low 80s during the afternoon and in the middle 50s to around 60.
132 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A few showers associated with the upper low continue this morning. The unsettled weather continues today into Thursday with scattered showers due to an upper low over northern New England. Temperatures will run cooler than normal to close the week.
Gusty winds along with cooler temperatures are anticipated through the end of the week. Dry conditions along with light winds and mostly clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling and expect that some areas will fall near or below freezing overnight. the trough centered over southern California will continue to move toward Arizona and slowly fall apart over the weekend. With the progression of this low, we can expect cooler than normal temperatures (5-10 degrees below normal), drier air, and afternoon breezes (15-25 mph) out of the south- southwest with gusts up to 30 mph.
The dominant synoptic scale features continued to be a large upper low centered across California, a fairly robust upper high centered across the Dakotas, and another very large gyre centered over New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, Canada. The two large gyres will remain essentially unchanged, although latest models show the two gyres expanding their influence, effectively putting the squeeze-play on the northern Great Plains ridge. The blocking pattern discussed in the Short Term section will continue through Thursday with resulting light winds, afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s, and Slight Chance to Chance POPs across much of the southwest and west central Kansas region.
Highs today will likely be in the low-mid 70s, though some spots may stick in the upper 60s, where clouds and precipitation hold on longest. For tonight, surface cold front will push further south into TN with clearing skies developing from north to south. Much cooler air will filter into the region with lows mainly in the lower 50s. This will help dry out southern Indiana and central Kentucky as high pressure builds over the region.
144 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A few showers associated with the upper low continue this morning. The unsettled weather continues today into Thursday with scattered showers due to an upper low over northern New England. Temperatures will run cooler than normal to close the week.
Visible satellite and observations around the region indicate clear skies, light and variable winds, and warm temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Lows will be in the high 50s in the east and low 60s in the west. Wednesday will be warm with highs in the high 80s to around 90. A cloud deck will begin to move in from the northeast midday through the afternoon ahead of a backdoor cold front that will swing through the region during the evening hours. Lows Wednesday night will be in the high 50s to mid 60s. Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs in the low 80s (high 80s for the extreme southwestern counties where precipitation will be more scarce). The Omega block upper-air pattern really begins to break down with the passage of the cold front.
252 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Cold front exits south. High pressure Thursday.
(Today and tonight) Showers and isolated thunderstorms that developed on the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico yesterday will continue to slowly move into the South Plains and far southwestern Texas Panhandle early this morning. Aloft, ridging will be increasing today which will help to boost thicknesses a bit hence afternoon temperatures will also be a few degrees warmer. Similar to the past week though moisture remains trapped under the ridge with very little CINH expected by peak afternoon heating.
Additionally, subsident northerly flow aloft will drive afternoon high temperatures into the lower 90s today, creeping up to the mid 90s areawide on Thursday.
152 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A cold front moving through the area will bring a chance for showers tonight. A drier and cooler airmass will settle into the region through mid week. Still expecting additional showers to track across southwestern parts of the forecast area during the overnight becoming a bit more concentrated along and ahead of a cold front dropping across the region. Otherwise, a drier and cooler airmass will advect down into our area behind the front through the day, with mainly clear conditions expected into Wednesday night. In the low level CAA pattern, below normal temperatures are expected. Highs on Wednesday will only be in the low to mid 70s with lows Wednesday night mostly in the 40s.
515 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 08Z sfc analysis shows a cold front settling south into eastern Kentucky. Sensible weather will feature a much cooler day through eastern Kentucky on account of the clouds, showers, and a colder air mass inbound from the north. A drier, but cool, night follows with a small ridge to valley temperature split anticipated along with another bout of river valley fog.
739 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Unsettled weather expected through Wednesday, then a return to high pressure and dry conditions Thursday through the weekend. The surface cold front associated with this low will sag south over the next several hours and cross into the CWA later this morning/early afternoon. The start of this period will host the highest PoPs for the next several days. As the cold front continues to move south, PoPs will increase to Likelys across the entire CWA by around sunset tonight. Tonight's lows will be slightly cooler in the post-frontal air mass (upper 50s inland, low 60s near and along the coast).
A stagnant, dry upper level pattern persists today with upper ridging centered over the central Dakotas. Aside from greater coverage of showers and storms by late afternoon, expect another day of above normal temperatures and further increased humidity with highs in the 80s (east of I-29) to the low to mid 90s (near/west of I-29). Enhanced cloudiness overnight should keep temperatures on the warmer side, dropping into the 60s overnight and perhaps even 50s in drier air east of the boundary. THURSDAY: Expect slightly cooler, less humid conditions as Wednesday's warm sector and associated boundary shift further west into the central Dakotas and upper ridging weakens and regresses further into the High Plains. A strengthening wave rounds the upper ridge in northwest flow aloft and pushes a cold front into the eastern half of the U.
631 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 (Today and tonight) Showers and isolated thunderstorms that developed on the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico yesterday will continue to slowly move into the South Plains and far southwestern Texas Panhandle early this morning. Aloft, ridging will be increasing today which will help to boost thicknesses a bit hence afternoon temperatures will also be a few degrees warmer. Similar to the past week though moisture remains trapped under the ridge with very little CINH expected by peak afternoon heating.
(Now through Thursday) Our unconventional summertime pattern looks to continue through the near term as a rather large upper level low slowly digs southward along the Atlantic coast. This will keep us on the western periphery of the low leading to northwesterly winds aloft through Thursday. Highs Thursday will be a tick warmer likely climbing just above 90 as storms may be a little lower in coverage.
* Some rain this morning, mainly south * Cooler air for this afternoon and tonight Upper energy rotating around a large upper low across the northeastern USA will interact with a front across the southern forecast area to increase rain coverage some early this morning. Cooler and drier air will move in this afternoon and tonight. Temperatures will be cooler as cold advection occurs. Cooler air and clear to partly cloudy skies will allow temperatures to dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
450 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A cold front has entered the CWA, stretching located from northeastern MO through south-central IL as of 08z, and will continue to progress slowly southwestward through the remainder of the CWA this morning and into early afternoon. The second period of precip will come in the form of developing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms near the cold front as it passes central and southeastern MO during peak insolation in the afternoon.
632 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Cold front exits south. High pressure Thursday.
08Z sfc analysis shows a cold front settling south into eastern Kentucky. Sensible weather will feature a much cooler day through eastern Kentucky on account of the clouds, showers, and a colder air mass inbound from the north. A drier, but cool, night follows with a small ridge to valley temperature split anticipated along with another bout of river valley fog.
Despite the mostly sunny skies, smoke from the Canadian wildfires will overspread the area from the northeast as high pressure builds in across the area from Hudson Bay.
Seasonable Summer-like temperatures can be expected at most locations w/ readings topping out in the low 90s today and Thursday.
Satellite imagery shows clouds building into the FA from the north this morning as a backdoor cold front approaches with the chance for pcpn. Dewpoints and temperatures have been running a tad warmer. The 0z CAMs are in good agreement bringing the first round of showers and possibly a storm across portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky this morning as a H5 vort lobe rounds the base of a large upper-level trough over the northeast CONUS. Fropa will also mean a big temperature gradient with highs ranging from the upper 70s to upper 80s as the aformentioned cold front moves southwest. For the remainder of the week, cooler and drier conditions can be expected as a H5 omega pattern prevails.
705 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Showers and storms will be possible again this afternoon into this evening as a back door cold front moves through the region through Thursday.
The upper ridge axis over northeast Mexico into southwest Texas will maintain a northwest flow aloft over south Texas through Thursday. But additional convection will form over the higher terrain of northeast Mexico this evening. Highs will be a little warmer on Thursday with heat index values from 100 to 105 degrees Thursday afternoon from the Coastal Bend to the Brush Country.
614 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 (Today through Thursday) As a 500 mb trough over the central Gulf of Mexico moves east and out of the region, a mid-level ridge of high pressure over the Texas Big Bend will build north and become the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA.
In between, a weak trough with embedded disturbances continues to sit over the northern Gulf coast.
511 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Light rain will accompany a slow-moving cold front this morning, exiting the region by midday. A cooler and much drier airmass then settles in for the remainder of the work week. High pressure will then slowly build across the region through the remainder of the week. Rain Ending: Despite the cold front already pushing south of our forecast counties, a few bands of moderate rainfall developed overnight behind the front. Daily highs will be noticeably cooler today and Thursday, but clearing skies and a high June sun angle should still support afternoon temperatures in the low 80s. Of greater note will be overnight temps, which are forecast to dip into the low 50s. And we may not be done yet tweaking our forecast lows cooler. Temperatures appear to rebound a little warmer to close the week.
Satellite imagery shows the closed upper low has moved a bit further east and is now over the southern portion of central California. Current temperatures are mostly running a little cooler compared to 24 hours ago and are in the 40s and 50s in the mountains, and mostly mid 50s to mid 60s in the valley. The low is forecast to drift a little to the north and east and weaken over the next couple of days. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain the next few afternoons and drift westward toward the valley, but will likely weaken before making it to the lower elevations.
These clouds have somewhat provided insolation overnight with current temperatures across the island chain observed to be in the lower 80s with exception to inland areas like Big Pine where radiational cooling has brought readings down into the mid 70s. A stubborn upper-level trough continues to squat in the Gulf of Mexico as a mid to low level ridge noses in the western North Atlantic across Cuba. A pronounced upper level jet just north of the ridge extends from the east coast of the CONUS out into the Atlantic. This weekend, the trough will inch towards Florida keeping the ridge suppressed.
The upper low that brought this shower activity will linger over CA for the rest of the week. (Today and tonight) Have been watching radar all night as the upper level low continues to spin counter-clockwise centered over SoCal. On water vapor satellite imagery, the center of the low appears to be over Kern County and though moisture has been wrapping around the low and moving showers into Central CA and NorCal, they have generally stayed just north or just to the southeast of our CWA.
Scattered thunderstorms cover the northeastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, ahead of and along a mid to upper-level trough axis noted on water vapor imagery. An upper-level trough will remain firmly planted in the Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the work week. Meanwhile, a lower- to mid- level ridge in the central North Atlantic will nose westward towards the Florida Peninsula.
A Few Strong to Marginally Severe Storms Possible this Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will continue to nudge south of the area today, with low level winds veering to the southwest. With the higher coverage of showers and storms expected today, added tempo groups for TSRA from around 18-22Z across the interior and 20-23Z at the coast.
957 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 High pressure at the surface through the first half of the weekend, but an upper trough tracks through tonight.
Key messages: 1) Not as warm along with very dry airmass 2) Smoke aloft from Canada forest fires will linger tonight into Thursday Today: Backdoor cold front extended from the extreme eastern Dakotas to se IA and then to northern KY. The main message is that a northeast wind will bring a cooler and much drier airmass into the forecast area.
We will maintain a pattern with some flavor of high pressure to our east and south, with a series of mid level lows impacting the region to our west and northwest. Meanwhile, a decent H7 theta-e ridge will remain to our east and southeast as any storms steer clear of SE AZ. Significant positive height anomalies across central and southern Mexico in the long range ensembles suggest a blocking position for any significant monsoon progress through mid month.