Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Above average temperatures will likely prevail through the end of February under a strong upper-level ridge across the East Coast. Wind gusts will likely subside throughout the evening as the pressure gradient relaxes and subsidence increases in the boundary layer with a building ridge. Rain chances will likely stay focused west of the ridges with winds shift from the southwest. However, Hi-Res model soundings for the eastern ridges of West Virginia display a wintry mix/snow situation as the boundary layer saturates and cools aloft. Due to the lack of confidence in wind direction prevailing from the east to lock in upsloping/precip type, will hold off on issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain.
(This evening through Saturday) The main concern tonight and into early tomorrow morning is the chance for light, patchy freezing drizzle - mainly for areas along/east of the I-44 corridor. Winds will shift to the south with the passage of the ridge axis throughout the day. By tomorrow afternoon, wind speeds begin to increase over northwest Oklahoma as the lee- side trough begins to develop. Forecast temperatures are still a bit uncertain for tomorrow with NBM still warmer than most short-term guidance, and therefore went with CONSSHORT.
539 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) A weak spoke of energy rounding the subtropical ridge and abundant low level moisture has helped maintain some cloud cover across the lower Texas coast, limiting high temperatures across eastern Cameron County. The frontal boundary across the CRP CWA has yet to sneak into the northern ranchlands, but may dip south tonight into early Saturday before nudging north through the weekend as a warm front. Went with a mix of NAM and cooler blends up north with NBM and slightly warmer blends for the RGV through the short term. Patchy fog is being observed along the lower Texas coast, and with cooler water temps and persistent moist southerly winds, this may not budge much over the weekend.
518 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 (This evening through Saturday) The main concern tonight and into early tomorrow morning is the chance for light, patchy freezing drizzle - mainly for areas along/east of the I-44 corridor. Winds will shift to the south with the passage of the ridge axis throughout the day. By tomorrow afternoon, wind speeds begin to increase over northwest Oklahoma as the lee- side trough begins to develop. Forecast temperatures are still a bit uncertain for tomorrow with NBM still warmer than most short-term guidance, and therefore went with CONSSHORT.
553 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 Moisture continues to stream north over the cold front to the south. A warm front will lift north on Sun as flow aloft transitions to the SW over the region.
657 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2023 A cold front will push in from the north late Friday, bringing showers and cool northerly winds that linger into Saturday.
1045 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 (Tonight through Saturday) The cold front has pushed south to the I-85 corridor.
Yet another day where the strong ridge overhead is the dominate weather feature. With the ridge firmly entrenched, there are no significant sensible weather changes expected. Because of the atypical ridge overhead, temperatures will continue to run 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.
A light glaze could occur on areas that fall to freezing or just below, and we will have to watch for minor travel impacts, but this potential is low given the marginality of both modeled road surface temperatures and observed ambient temperatures. Later today, partial clearing is expected and as ridging amplifies to our west a warm-up will commence. A tighter than typical gradient will remain over the area and maximum temperatures will range from the low-mid 40s north to the low 50s south, falling to a few degrees either side of freezing tonight for minimums.
1036 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 (This evening through Saturday) The main concern tonight and into early tomorrow morning is the chance for light, patchy freezing drizzle - mainly for areas along/east of the I-44 corridor. Winds will shift to the south with the passage of the ridge axis throughout the day. By tomorrow afternoon, wind speeds begin to increase over northwest Oklahoma as the lee- side trough begins to develop. Forecast temperatures are still a bit uncertain for tomorrow with NBM still warmer than most short-term guidance, and therefore went with CONSSHORT.
117 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2023 Mean western NOAM upper trough will support semi-active flow through the period. SW CONUS upper low will move east through this weekend, with this system supporting WAA over the FA. Arctic air is beginning to push east as gusty warm SW winds, aided by terrain, is allowing temps to rise above freezing in the BH foothills. Arctic air will scour out today as much of the FA will see high temps at least in the 30s, with some 40s/low 50s expected along the ENE slopes of the BHs as the lee side trough deepens in response to the approaching upper trough. Even warmer temps are expected Sun as the thermal ridge passes over the region with breezy SW winds.
1150 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 Moisture continues to stream north over the cold front to the south. A warm front will lift north on Sun as flow aloft transitions to the SW over the region.
1202 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2023 High pressure remains in firm control of the weather pattern tonight bringing a mainly clear sky with winds becoming light and variable as the evening progresses. The latest hi res ensemble guidance shows the highest probabilities of dense fog development spreading west of Lake Okeechobee and over to the Gulf Coast. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region to around 70 across the east coast metro areas. With the center of the 594mb ridge still directly overhead, the persistent pattern continues today. Along the immediate east coast, the light onshore flow will act to moderate temperatures a tad keeping locations along the immediate coastline in the lower to mid 80s.
833 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2023 Zonal flow with a flat short wave ridge over CO tonight. There is still some light snow shower activity mainly along the higher west facing slopes, otherwise dry. Most of the foothills and Palmer Divide have crawled their way into the 30s, with a few sites lucky enough to see the low 40s. Meanwhile, snow showers are still continuing across the high country this afternoon, though this has diminished over the past couple hours. While temperatures should definitely be warmer than today. Across the high country, breezy conditions will continue Saturday, though it shouldn't be as windy as today.
An upper level low currently located off the coast of central California will move south into southern California on Saturday as an upper level ridge builds over our area.
The highest PoPs (60%) will likely be across southern middle Tennessee and far northern Alabama (closest to the boundary), with slight lower (30-50%) PoPs south of the Tennessee River.
1149 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 Overview: Freezing drizzle possible this afternoon, ending by the late evening.
Currently - A strong deep layered ridge straddles Florida. The dominating ridge has squashed shower potential despite a fairly warm and relatively well mixed boundary layer. Short Term Update - A mid latitude trough diving southeastwards off the northeast Atlantic coast will just slide around the entrenched ridge in our area. A ridge across Florida will maintain moderate breezes on waters nearer the island chain.
Latest surface analysis shows a warm front draped across western SD, then near/along the FSD/ABR CWA border and on into southern MN. Will also be watching a weak wave of low pressure along the frontal boundary with potential for a few light showers across the southeast CWA by Sunday morning. Although, it appears some warmer readings near 60 are possible across the west-river counties where snowpack has dwindled. Models are in great agreement with building the seasons first strong ridge and plenty of warm air with it.
winds will shift to out of the northeast with cooler and drier air advecting into the state. Temperatures today will be in the upper 40s in the far east to the lower 60s in the south and west. Clouds are not expected to begin clearing until the afternoon when drier air begins to impact the low levels. Sunday will see high pressure starting to move into the state and highs will reach the mid 60s to lower 70s.
803 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2023 Continued dry and progressively warmer weather is anticipated for the remainder of the weekend.
The upper trough responsible for the cloudiness and light shower activity is expected to push eastward across the CWA overnight. Sunday looks to have northwestly, then northerly flow aloft as an upper ridge is expected to be pushing eastward into western Colorado by the end of the day.
High temperatures for Easter Sunday were adjusted down a few degrees based on how models were trending cooler. As we go into mid/late week, an upper level trough digging southward into the Gulf of Mexico is expected to induce cyclogenesis along an unusually southward displaced frontal boundary.
Overnight lows will be in the low/mid 40s, which will feel cool but is only a few degrees below normal.
Amid high pressure and light nely sfc wind, general sun and only passing high clouds today will prevail with a notable decrease in humidity as deep mixing ensues and taps into abundant dry air above 900mb. A Rex block pattern across central North America will maintain the status quo as low pressure advances slowly inland/nwd from the Gulf of Mexico. A broad warm sector sandwiched between the ern-CONUS ridge axis and wrn-CONUS trough will supply unseasonably warm air into the Upper Ohio Valley. High pressure and plentiful dry air in the atmospheric profile will allow VFR and only occasional thin cirrus through the period.
High pressure will remain in place and with cirrus in place slowly exiting to the southeast, a bit more sun made it to some of the forecast areas providing a couple degree boost in temps before the sun set. A Rex block pattern across central North America will maintain the status quo as low pressure advances slowly inland/nwd from the Gulf of Mexico. A broad warm sector sandwiched between the ern-CONUS ridge axis and wrn-CONUS trough will supply unseasonably warm air into the Upper Ohio Valley. High pressure and plentiful dry air in the atmospheric profile will allow VFR and only occasional thin cirrus through the period.
- Very warm and dry much of the upcoming week! A warm front has lifted north of the state and into Minnesota with an abundance of sunshine and breezy south winds helping to push highs well into the 60s to near 70. Upper ridge of high pressure and the thermal ridge will follow the Sunday night system and that will lead to much warmer temperatures for a large portion of the upcoming week along with mostly dry conditions.
(The rest of tonight) A quiet night is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure prevails at the surface and aloft.
High pressure will build into the area for the early part of the coming week.
Max temps over the mountains and valleys will rise a few degf from Saturday's readings as mid level temps begin to warm, while readings on the plains drift downward slightly as cooler air filters in from the north.
High pressure sprawled across the Great Lakes and Northeast will keep us dry with a northeast breeze through the short term.
Otherwise expect light winds and mostly clear skies overnight as high pressure meanders over the eastern Great Lakes.
Dry air and sunshine, combined with southerly winds around the high pressure in the Great Lakes, have brought a beautiful Saturday to our area.
The high temperatures for tomorrow may be variable depending on where/when these showers/thunderstorms impact a location however where rain holds off, temperatures will warm into the mid 70s.
With building upper level ridging influences commencing also, dry conditions will prevail with some passing clouds at times through Sunday night.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 40s across our northern zones where cloud cover is not as prevalent, and then will be in the lower to mid 50s elsewhere. Temperature minimums will range from the lower 40s into the 50s tonight under mostly clear skies (nearly clear north of I-30) as a result of surface ridging. By tomorrow, cloud cover redevelops, continuing to moderate temperatures into the lower 70s.
Today and Sunday A ridge has entrenched across the region causing increasingly warm temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and fair weather for the weekend.
At the lower levels, a light NE/E flow will prevail. The air mass should remain fairly dry/cool but high temperatures are going to be a bit warmer tomorrow, in the mid 70s for much of SE TX.
35 um satellite imagery clearly shows the higher density of clouds/pcpn zone making steady progress to the east.
607 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2023 Continued dry and progressively warmer weather is anticipated for the remainder of the weekend.
Weak low level warm air advection will lead to a slight chance of light showers along the Rio Grande Sunday night ahead of the approaching mid level short wave trough.
Had to raise highs a touch though as we were already trending warmer by 10 am. The better chance for showers and even a few non-severe thunderstorms comes tomorrow during the day as the cold front sets up across the area, though most are still likely to stay dry unfortunately. Tomorrow has trended slightly warmer in a few places, mainly the west, and while RH values will be on the lower side around 25% winds should remain light enough to not be an issue for fire weather.
Low chances for showers exist late Sunday afternoon/night with modest low-level moisture transport and synoptic ascent ahead of a trough.
823 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2023 High pressure continues to be the primary weather influencer for the area. With dry air there is some question on how much frost will develop, however decided to issue a frost advisory for areas where temperatures will be close to freezing and in the growing season. Sunday arrives sunny and a bit chilly, with temperatures in the 30s but ample daytime heating will help bring temperatures up to the low to mid 60s by afternoon. High pressure begins to retrograde back toward the area Sunday night, keeping clear skies and weak winds in place. A longwave H5 ridge becomes the predominant upper level feature by mid week, with higher heights leading to an additional surge in warmer air across the Ohio Valley.
A ridge of high pressure remained over the region this afternoon with a warm front stretching from central South Dakota into southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin. This warm front will push north tonight and turn winds southerly allowing for warm air advection.
Otherwise, added isolated to scattered drizzle to the forecast through 05Z near the AL/TN border, with mesoscale models hinting at that occurring as the main weak trough axis aloft moves southeast. Low temperatures were tweaked slightly warmer and only drop into the 45 to 50 degree range primarily due to expected cloud cover tonight.
922 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2023 High pressure will remain overhead through early in the work week. Then, high pressure shifts south during the middle portion of the week keeping a warm and dry air mass. Cloud cover will slide south and east overnight as an area of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes builds overhead. After a chilly start, Sunday will be pleasant with temperatures into the 50s west of the Blue Ridge and near 60 to the east with full sunshine. High pressure will provide plenty of sunshine with some high clouds later Sunday.
A cold front will move through the region tonight into Sunday.
617 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2023 Latest surface analysis shows a warm front draped across western SD, then near/along the FSD/ABR CWA border and on into southern MN. Will also be watching a weak wave of low pressure along the frontal boundary with potential for a few light showers across the southeast CWA by Sunday morning. Although, it appears some warmer readings near 60 are possible across the west-river counties where snowpack has dwindled. Models are in great agreement with building the seasons first strong ridge and plenty of warm air with it.
Discussion: The models and ensembles display a strong signal for large scale ridging with anomalous heights/temperatures over the Central CONUS early to mid week. The models/ensembles may not be handling this pattern very well as we have been consistently warmer than the forecasted high temperatures.
620 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Satellite shows the low clouds that developed along the Trans Pecos this morning quickly dissipating, and temperatures warm this afternoon to the low to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies. On Sunday, the thermal ridge is positioned just to the west of the region and temperatures respond, giving highs in the 70s and 80s for Easter Sunday. Outdoor activities may be impacted, however, as a positively tilted trough moves across the Panhandle of Texas, likely bringing some storms to the area Sunday afternoon and evening. Models are pushing timing of the development of storms later on in the newest runs, likely in response to the slower track of the trough and the need for afternoon heating.
917 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2023 High pressure continues to be the primary weather influencer for the area. With dry air there is some question on how much frost will develop, however decided to issue a frost advisory for areas where temperatures will be close to freezing and in the growing season. Sunday arrives sunny and a bit chilly, with temperatures in the 30s but ample daytime heating will help bring temperatures up to the low to mid 60s by afternoon. High pressure begins to retrograde back toward the area Sunday night, keeping clear skies and weak winds in place. A longwave H5 ridge becomes the predominant upper level feature by mid week, with higher heights leading to an additional surge in warmer air across the Ohio Valley.
This will help mix the low levels and result in some clearing, warmer temps, and a somewhat gusty afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the low to middle 30s.
A breezy but otherwise pleasant day across the area with temperatures in the 50s and 60s except for the northwestern portions of the CWA where snow cover keeps things a bit cooler in the 40s.
Modestly high dew points this evening should allow for some fog to develop as winds become light overnight, especially to the central and east ahead of the pressure trough. Latest surface analysis shows a warm front from northeast Montana into northwest Montana. The far southwest should warm into the lower 60s this afternoon, but most of the area, especially north and east of the Missouri River will remain in the 30s. Sunday looks like another warm day in the far southwest and west central, with cooler temperatures as you go north and east (but warmer than today). Like today, expect that there will be a sharp transition zone between the warmer temperatures with bare ground and colder temperatures under the deep snowpack.
Discussion: Currently rain is very slowly decreasing in coverage from the north and west as the weak trough continues to slide to the east. This clearing of the skies will help drop temperatures into the 30s overnight in northeast TN and southwest VA, and possibly flirt with freezing in some of the higher elevations of these counties. Moving into tomorrow expect much sunnier skies across the area as the ridge begins to build in.
The Red Flag Warning is performing well, the slower than expected movement of the trough looks to be putting the next row of counties west (Red Willow through Gove) at better risk of multiple hours of critical fire weather conditions. Sunday, moisture return will be more relevant in front of the trough which will be the focus for shower and storms to develop. Temperatures are forecast to be cooler in the 60s to low 70s along with variable winds. The pattern then goes relatively benign into the start of the new work week as ridging develops over the western CONUS.
155 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 High pressure continues to be the primary weather influencer for the area. With dry air there is some question on how much frost will develop, however decided to issue a frost advisory for areas where temperatures will be close to freezing and in the growing season. Sunday arrives sunny and a bit chilly, with temperatures in the 30s but ample daytime heating will help bring temperatures up to the low to mid 60s by afternoon. High pressure begins to retrograde back toward the area Sunday night, keeping clear skies and weak winds in place. A longwave H5 ridge becomes the predominant upper level feature by mid week, with higher heights leading to an additional surge in warmer air across the Ohio Valley.
Dry and warmer weather is expected to continue through the first-half of the upcoming week, with occasional breezy winds and high clouds.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 40s across our northern zones where cloud cover is not as prevalent, and then will be in the lower to mid 50s elsewhere.
420 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 Upper impulses moving over the Gulf continue to produce light rain in E Gulf and low clouds along a slow moving cold front stretched across northern areas of the FL Peninsula early this morning.
1202 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023 (The rest of tonight) A quiet night is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure prevails at the surface and aloft.
An upper level ridge over Western CONUS will move over the Northern Rockies bringing very warm temperatures. This will cause temperatures this afternoon to warm up into the lower 40s out east to 60s out west. These warmer temperatures will continue to eat away the snow pack. Tonight temperatures are forecast to sit in the upper 20s in areas with snow pack while the southwest will remain above freezing.
Further south, the back end of a stalled front have started to finally pushed into the Tennessee Valley and away from the lower Ohio Valley. A light east-northeast breeze will start by mid to late morning with some gusts reaching between 17-23 mph amid steepening llvl lapse rates and a ribbon of slightly-enhanced 850-mb winds moving away from the high pressure center. Quiet and cool weather will continue to finish the weekend as high pressure keeps its influence over the Ohio Valley.
Clouds are increasing this morning from southwest to northeast as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Short-range models continue to support this, though the hidden Easter egg with the forecast is dry air in the lower levels, which is apparent on the 00Z INL/MPX soundings and model soundings through the morning. Aside from today's rain chances, winds will become southwesterly this afternoon and continue to bring warmer air into the region. High temperatures in the 50s and low 60s are expected for most areas with some locally cooler temperatures around Lake Superior. A secondary trough will pass through this evening and overnight. With high pressure right behind it keeping the air dry, rain isn't expected.
357 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 High pressure over the region today will slowly settle to our south for the upcoming week.
Lapse rates are less than impressive with possible weak capping at 700MB by mid-afternoon as H70 temps will remain above freezing. The H50 trough axis that is expected to linger over our area is not as sharp in deterministic guidance as earlier progged.
A sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec southwestward to Texas will continue to dominate the weather today. The sun will efficiently heat the dry airmass, resulting in high temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
330 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 High pressure continues to be the primary weather influencer for the area. light wind, patchy frost is possible this morning where temperatures will be close to freezing this morning. After a chilly start abundant sunshine will aid temperatures in warming to highs in the lower to middle 60s.