Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
JEH/88 (Now through Thursday) Aloft zonal flow will gradually become more northwesterly later this evening and into Thursday as ridging builds across the Southern Plains, and a low pressure aloft develops off the GA/SC coast. At the surface, high pressure remains in place to our north through Thursday, with a surface boundary located near the coast to just offshore continuing to linger. What this means for our area is that the counter-clockwise flow around the low will bring northeasterly surface flow across the region. As for temperatures, lows tonight will be mild, ranging from the low to mid 60s north of Highway 84, with mid to upper 60s south, and low 70s along the immediate coast.
Thursday night, the weak stagnant flow becomes increasingly northwesterly as the region lies between building upper ridging to the west and a deepening upper low along the Southeast US coastline. Otherwise, mid- and high- level cloudiness will be on the increase as the upper-level trough splits to the west.
1233 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 (Today and tonight) A mid-level wave/trough currently over eastern Oklahoma is expected to move eastward into the Mississippi Valley Region by this afternoon so could still see scattered thunderstorms moving across our area through the morning, although it should stay east of I-35 during the afternoon hours. By late afternoon heating, moderate elevated instability and deep-layer shear associated with the trough may be sufficient for low-end severe thunderstorms to initiate.
This is expected to be the only weather maker in the short term forecast - otherwise, highs tomorrow will again be in the upper 70s and 80s as the low off the coast helps reinforce our airmass in place.
An upper level trough centered over Washington state this morning will move south over southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho tonight. The main impacts will be much cooler temperatures and breezy northwest winds this afternoon and evening.
Dry wx is forecast tonight through Thursday and it will be even warmer tomorrow with high temps reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s. However this is still far below record high temperatures for this time of year (which are generally in the lower to middle 90s). Models have been fairly consistent of late in showing a weak blocking pattern over the Great Lakes as a result of low pressure developing off the southeast coast of of the US. This block will help to keep high pressure over the state along with above normal temperatures as we head into Autumn this weekend.
Highs will range from the low to mid 80s for most. Ern flank of low level theta-e ridge into nw IN/sw MI will gradually retreat north into cntrl MI today as low level flow/forcing decays with swd extent. Otherwise thermal ridge builds a bit further and with at least partial insolation yield 80 or better for most this aftn. Narrow yet impressive high level blocking ridge assured into this weekend between impressive subtropical sys tracking up the east coast and equally impressive cutoff developing through the nrn plains. High pressure remains in control, keeping things homogeneous, even as a weak low lifts north through IL late in the TAF period.
1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 (Today through Thursday) A mid to upper level ridge over west-central Mexico will slowly shift eastward through Thursday, keeping mainly rain-free conditions across most of South Texas.
Convection is quickly lighting up across the Lower Keys and surrounding nearshore waters this afternoon. Earlier convection that started up in the Upper Keys sent out boundaries southwest towards the Lower and Middle Keys, which have begun interacting with the numerous other leftover boundaries. An upper level trough situated across the southeast U.
218 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High pressure to dominate with dry weather and near average temps through Thursday.
As these showers and the trough drift east through the rest of today and into tonight, the expectation advertised in high-res guidance is for activity to diminish some before increasing in area and potentially intensity late this evening into the overnight hours. A short wave trough continues to progress across eastern Montana and will move into western North Dakota early this morning. A broad trough is forecast to dig across Western CONUS by the middle of the week placing North Dakota in southwesterly flow aloft. Models have the upper low cutting off over the Great Basin resulting in multiple disturbance moving through the Northern Plains this week. Then by the end of the week the upper low is forecast to progress through the Northern Plains.
156 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Tranquil conditions this afternoon through the remainder of the work week as high pressure dominates. High pressure building in from the eastern Great Lakes and Pennsylvania is providing mostly sunny/sunny skies. Temperatures currently reside in the low 40s to low 50s across eastern New York and western New England with pockets of upper 30s mainly observed in the Eastern Catskills. While some high- level clouds will drift into the region this morning mainly south of Albany, they will quickly dissipate with the introduction of subsidence behind the trough, yielding a mainly clear day. With high pressure locked in at the surface and long-wave ridging aloft, the final days of Summer will be beautifully tranquil.
320 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Water vapor imagery shows the digging upper trough across the Pacific NW, while closer to home, there appears to be a weak wave at 700mb moving across the High Plains.
An upper level ridge will be found over the plains today, slowly sliding eastward into the Mississippi Valley by tomorrow night. Meanwhile, an upper level low will spin over the Intermountain west throughout the short term forecast. Towards the surface, lee troughing will develop across eastern Colorado this afternoon and continue through tomorrow leading to southerly winds across western Kansas. This trough will intensify even more tomorrow allowing the pressure gradient to become very tight across western Kansas. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to dip into the low 60s with highs tomorrow reaching into the upper 80s.
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Fair dry weather will continue through the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds over the region.
244 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Water vapor satellite showing ridging across Utah and Colorado with some moisture with it. The showers and storms currently forming over northern Colorado are just north of the ridging. Have the highest PoPs in this area with ridging likely subduing convection under it to the south, though isolated convection is still expected. Water vapor satellite imagery is also showing an upper level trough/low over southern California. Thursday night, a large upper level low pressure system will be centered over Southeastern Oregon with a weak southwesterly flow aloft over Colorado.
A cold front has pushed into western MN this afternoon, and is expected to stall out this evening. There will be a large temp range with highs in the 60s Thursday in the Devils Lake basin behind the boundary, and into the lower 80s ahead of it in the central/southern RRV and west central MN.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) Daytime heating has finally resulted in formation of a few fair weather cumulus over and near the higher country of southwest Texas. Otherwise, very warm to hot conditions were occurring over the greater Permian Basin with 2 PM temperatures rising through 80s and 90s (cooler in the higher elevations). An upper level disturbance moving across the higher terrain of Mexico, south of New Mexico should start the development of showers and thunderstorms over the next few hours. This activity should begin impacting parts of the higher terrain of SE New Mexico in the late evening, with it progressing in a west to east manner during the course of the night. With more clouds and rain chances, high temperatures on Thursday should be slightly cooler than readings today.
131 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 A weak warm front will reach southern Ontario by this evening.
An amplifying mid-level trough will enter the southeastern United States by Thursday which may lead to the development of an upper to mid level low in the region to close out the week. A pocket of cooler air aloft could open the door to some strong to locally severe storms with the strongest convection.
1247 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 (Today through Thursday) Triple digit heat and rain-free conditions will prevail through the short term period as the region remains under the influence of mid level ridging.
103 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Water vapor shows large trof evolving over the western CONUS with main upper low over the Pac NW. Temps are in the low 60s in far northwest SD to near 90 south-central SD. On Thursday, upper low will dig slightly into the Great Basin and become nearly cut-off. Best corridor of MLCAPE near and above 1000J/kg will extend along the developing inverted trof into central SD with a bit more shear for a few strong to severe storms.
Otherwise, VFR conditions through Thursday with weak high pressure holding in place. Approaching elevated warm front marked by expansive mid-level cloud will continue to push northward today supporting isentropically driven ascent and saturation locally. In spite of an anticyclonically defined flow regime featuring closed high pressure at/below 700 mb, scattered showers should manage to percolate eastward across Southeast Michigan through the morning hours. Regarding temperatures for today, made minor upward revisions based on resolved mixing heights near 850 mb as temps now approach 13C, perhaps even 14C west of US-23 while areas toward The Thumb stay meaningfully cooler (9-10C).
339 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 A weak warm front will reach southern Ontario by this evening.
(Tonight) Satellite imagery shows an upper level trough positioned to our west with a weak low pressure system along its eastern flank in Arkansas. Additional high level clouds may stream in later this evening from the low to our west, but no sensible weather impacts are anticipated, but it could result in a colorful sunset. Formation of fog is also not forecast due to the high level clouds.
236 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week, keeping it dry with river valley fog developing at night. High pressure will remain in control today with wall-to-wall sunshine areawide. 500-mb heights will slightly rise this afternoon, which will bump temperatures into the upper 70s across the lowlands. Thursday afternoon will be slightly warmer than today with rising 500-mb heights and the center of high pressure sliding farther east. High temperatures Thursday should reach the lower 80s in the lowlands. The last remnants of high pressure should keep things largely dry through the period.
The area will be in the entrance region of the low level jet though, which may limit the low level lift. - Warming up Gradual warm air advection will continue into Thursday as 925 mb temps climb another degree or two, with much of the CWA in the low 20 deg C range during the afternoon. The slightly warmer temperatures are supported by the most recent ensemble model runs. Models have been fairly consistent of late in showing a weak blocking pattern over the Great Lakes as a result of low pressure developing off the southeast coast of of the US. This block will help to keep high pressure over the state along with above normal temperatures as we head into Autumn this weekend.
As we go into Thursday, synoptic scale subsidence will likely be on the rise as the upper ridge strengthens with its axis moving overhead.
1242 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 First strong cold front of the fall season will roll through tonight, bringing showers and much colder temperatures on Thursday.
Southeasterly winds are near 10 mph, and temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s. Temperatures will be slightly warmer, partly due to the increased cloud cover. Thursday morning lows should range from the mid 50s to lower 60s, although some of our coolest valleys in the Bluegrass could again dip into the lower 50s. Afternoon highs are likely to reach the lower 80s in most areas (mid 80s at the warmest urban locations). The upper level pattern will feature two closed lows, one over the western CONUS and then one over the SE coast. The Ohio Valley will remain in between this low and the closed low over western US and we'll see upper level ridging over the area. This wave will likely amplify into a closed low bringing unsettled weather the region for the remainder of the week.
The low-end severe threat mentioned in previous discussions is no longer expected. Cloudcover will stick around and overnight lows will be in the high 50s to low 60s.
611 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) An upper-level ridge centered over western Texas continues to provide broad subsidence and dry mid-level flow, hampering convection over Deep South Texas. Heat index values are anticipated to reach 105-110, with the highest values expected in Cameron County.
841 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High pressure to dominate with dry weather and near average temps through Thursday.
A weak warm front will reach southern Ontario by this evening.
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over eastern Kentucky - centered to the northeast. The high will also be responsible for light to calm winds through the night while helping to set up a small to moderate ridge and valley temperature split. Have updated the forecast to fine tune the fog development and also the ridge and valley temperatures differences overnight. Thursday night, the weak stagnant flow becomes increasingly northwesterly as the region lies between building upper ridging to the west and a deepening upper low along the Southeast US coastline. Otherwise, mid- and high- level cloudiness will be on the increase as the upper-level trough splits to the west.
624 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Mid level ridge axis will shift east of the area tonight, with west to southwest flow aloft developing in advance of an upper level trough over western portions of the CONUS. A weaker thermal ridge, coupled with the increase in cloud cover will result in slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow, with highs ranging from the lower 90s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 90s elsewhere. Lows tonight will be mainly in the low to mid 70s.
A weakening upper trough is situated to our immediate west and so we do have low rain chances in tonight's forecast for those far western portions of Middle Tennessee.
637 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Large high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes will maintain light south-southeast gradient winds across Se Mi tonight. While some showers look to brush the thumb region this evening in the vicinity of a sfc warm front, the remainder of Se Mi will remain precip free. Afternoon observational trends indicate the warm front better defined by the surface Td gradient that is mainly aligned with the mid level cloud pattern over the central Great Lakes. The mid level ridge then sharpens over Lower Mi after midnight as the twin MS valley circulations drift due north while supplying patchy/thin high clouds into the ridge axis. Mid to upper 70s will be most common, with 80 at the top of the range, especially given a light SE gradient wind from high pressure centered over the St Lawrence valley.
645 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) Daytime heating has finally resulted in formation of a few fair weather cumulus over and near the higher country of southwest Texas. Otherwise, very warm to hot conditions were occurring over the greater Permian Basin with 2 PM temperatures rising through 80s and 90s (cooler in the higher elevations). An upper level disturbance moving across the higher terrain of Mexico, south of New Mexico should start the development of showers and thunderstorms over the next few hours. This activity should begin impacting parts of the higher terrain of SE New Mexico in the late evening, with it progressing in a west to east manner during the course of the night. With more clouds and rain chances, high temperatures on Thursday should be slightly cooler than readings today.
The daytime high temperatures across the island chain varied between the upper 80s and the low 90s. The presence of showers and cloud cover kept the temperatures in the Lower Keys inÂ the upper 80s. Just like yesterday, the presence of weak boundaries led to the development of showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern waters and nearshore waters of the Lower Keys. The low levelÂ Â moisture ranks betweenÂ the 80 to 90 percentile range. The high-resolution models currently indicate that convection is expected to occur between 03Z and 06Z. An area of low pressure is expected to develop east of Florida sometime on Thursday.
Temperatures the next 48hrs will be very similar to current with Highs from the mid 80s to lower 90s and Lows in the lower to upper 60s. In the wake of the wave on Fri, the area will see decent ridging setup with a ridge axis just to our W/NW that will extend from TX NE to IL/IN. Lows Sat morning looks to be cooler than the prev days lows as well. Actually, it's one that is lower predictability due to potential "cut off" energy over the SE CONUS along with compact low moving through the Plains that will, in some way, break the ridge down. There's also general agreement that some phasing of sorts will take place with the Plains low to establish more of a E CONUS trough axis for mid/late week.
A mid/upper level high pressure system over Mexico is expected to shift east across TX tonight. This will maintain dry mid and upper levels while moisture in the lower levels will remain in place. The low level/near surface moisture combined with light winds, may lead to brief patchy fog across the interior Coastal Bend overnight into early Thursday morning from ALI to VCT. The mid level high pressure is progged to shift southeast Thursday as a short wave moves across E TX. In addition, models show a weak 700mb inverted trough moving westward across S TX.
The low level jet/instability axis/700mb moisture was a little more pronounced to our east and weaker locally. GOES water vapor satellite imagery, heights and lightning showed a broad area of low pressure aloft with pockets of energy over parts of IA/srn MN/srn WI/MO/IL.
1017 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Fair dry weather will continue through the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds over the region.
Look for a continuation of light showers and thunderstorms Thursday with temperatures trending much cooler.
This trough should shift to the east throughout the evening and into the overnight hours with dry conditions moving into the area over the next 2-3 hours and persisting throughout much of the overnight period. There is low-level veering, indicating that the atmosphere is indeed continuing to trend more summer-like as the low-level boundary lifts northward.
508 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Water vapor shows large trof evolving over the western CONUS with main upper low over the Pac NW. Temps are in the low 60s in far northwest SD to near 90 south-central SD. On Thursday, upper low will dig slightly into the Great Basin and become nearly cut-off. Best corridor of MLCAPE near and above 1000J/kg will extend along the developing inverted trof into central SD with a bit more shear for a few strong to severe storms.
On Thursday, upper level low pressure pushes into the nrn Great Basin, with increasing swly flow aloft across CO.
810 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over eastern Kentucky - centered to the northeast. The high will also be responsible for light to calm winds through the night while helping to set up a small to moderate ridge and valley temperature split. Have updated the forecast to fine tune the fog development and also the ridge and valley temperatures differences overnight. Thursday night, the weak stagnant flow becomes increasingly northwesterly as the region lies between building upper ridging to the west and a deepening upper low along the Southeast US coastline. Otherwise, mid- and high- level cloudiness will be on the increase as the upper-level trough splits to the west.
An area of low pressure will dig south out of the Pacific Northwest through Thursday ushering in cooler temperatures along with stronger winds with widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph.
Water vapor imagery shows the digging upper trough across the Pacific NW, while closer to home, there appears to be a weak wave at 700mb moving across the High Plains.
659 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 (Tonight) Satellite imagery shows an upper level trough positioned to our west with a weak low pressure system along its eastern flank in Arkansas. Additional high level clouds may stream in later this evening from the low to our west, but no sensible weather impacts are anticipated, but it could result in a colorful sunset. Formation of fog is also not forecast due to the high level clouds.
551 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Water vapor satellite showing ridging across Utah and Colorado with some moisture with it. The showers and storms currently forming over northern Colorado are just north of the ridging. Have the highest PoPs in this area with ridging likely subduing convection under it to the south, though isolated convection is still expected. Water vapor satellite imagery is also showing an upper level trough/low over southern California. Thursday night, a large upper level low pressure system will be centered over Southeastern Oregon with a weak southwesterly flow aloft over Colorado.
613 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Water vapor imagery shows the digging upper trough across the Pacific NW, while closer to home, there appears to be a weak wave at 700mb moving across the High Plains.
549 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Updated precipitation chances for this evening mainly along the Highway 50 corridor from Salida to Canon City through around 7 PM. On Thursday, upper level low pressure pushes into the nrn Great Basin, with increasing swly flow aloft across CO.
730 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Fair dry weather will continue through the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds over the region.
Will keep some low pops in the mountains for overnight showers considering the upper low over southern Nevada will be moving into Colorado. Water vapor satellite showing ridging across Utah and Colorado with some moisture with it. The showers and storms currently forming over northern Colorado are just north of the ridging. Have the highest PoPs in this area with ridging likely subduing convection under it to the south, though isolated convection is still expected. Water vapor satellite imagery is also showing an upper level trough/low over southern California. Thursday night, a large upper level low pressure system will be centered over Southeastern Oregon with a weak southwesterly flow aloft over Colorado.
GOES satellite imagery and upper air observations show an upper level low centered over northeastern Oregon which is forecast to drift south along the Idaho/Oregon border tomorrow. Showers and isolated thunderstorm will rotate cyclonically around the upper low with 60 to 70 percent chance of rain in the central and western Idaho mountains and into portions of southeastern Oregon. A bit of light snow is possible on the highest mountain peaks above 8000 feet elevation tonight and Thursday, but any accumulation is expected to be light and melt by the upcoming weekend. a dry slot will wrap into the low and limit the chance of measurable rain to less than 20 percent across the Treasure and Magic Valleys of southwestern Idaho.
908 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 A weak warm front will reach southern Ontario by this evening.
An unseasonably deep closed low will stay nearly stationary over the northern Great Basin through tonight, before weakening and moving east Friday. Cooler temperatures, widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph, with showers and thunderstorms occurring across northern and central Great Basin through tonight.