Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This rain will end in far east-central Kansas by mid evening as the low moves away and much drier air is advected in from the north.
20z/3pm surface analysis shows a cold front settling southward toward the I-70 corridor. In addition to the showers, area obs/webcams have shown smoke from Canadian wildfires mixing to the surface behind the cold front. Lows tonight will be considerably cooler than last night. Highs on Saturday will be below normal for this time of year in the lower 70s.
1235 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 A recent hand surface analysis places a baggy trough axis along a weak cold front stretching from central Wisconsin to far northwestern Illinois and into the Southern Plains. Low- to mid- level moisture ahead of the front is fairly scant with surface dew points only in the low to mid 50s and mean 700-300mb relative humidity values of only around 30-40% (re: 00Z DVN RAOB). Behind the cold front, breezy northwest winds will settle into the region with partially clearing skies. Highs will climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s with locally cooler conditions along the Lake Michigan shore.
Most of the low stratus and fog plaguing areas to the east of the Interstate 55 corridor should ease up by noon. Due to the increased rain chances east of Interstate 55, expect cooler highs than the western portion of our area. /LCP/ Today and tonight: Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over the U.
With showers and thunderstorms remaining over the area for much of the day on Saturday, Highs will be a few degrees cooler with mid 60s to lower 70s expected.
With clearing skies in its wake, the boundary layer has had several hours to recharge in advance of an approaching cold front. The cumulus field ahead of a prefrontal trough appears capped, and the lack of clouds deeper into the warm sector suggests there is still considerable inhibition to overcome. North winds will surge cooler and drier air into the region tonight into Saturday.
128 PM MDT Fri May 19 2023 High pressure is currently building over the state today. Some of the warmer spots, like Greybull and Worland, could be well up into the 80s.
An upper level ridge continues to build into the region today. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain this afternoon, mainly over eastern OR and the central ID mountains and the Owyhees.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough over the Gulf of California, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front has pushed to south of the Pecos, but the colder air has hung up diurnally as expected, and compressional warming ahead of the front should add a few degrees onto current temps before the afternoon is out.
Synoptically, an area of low pressure will continue to slowly drift into the Atlantic while its associated front stretches across the Southeastern US. In addition, a weak high pressure remains in control over southern Florida and into the Gulf keeping wind flow with a westerly component and inserting some drier air into the mid levels.
Showers associated with a pre-frontal trough will continue to shift east this afternoon. Have made some modifications to the short term to account for this but still think it is reasonable for us to hit the low to mid 70's, based on upstream trends and model soundings. Latest guidance continues to have the front reaching our eastern OH zones shortly after midnight, and east of the ridges by early afternoon Saturday. Temperatures will fall to slightly below normal on Saturday in the wake of the cold front.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through the weekend, especially in the higher terrain of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona. High pressure centered over western Nevada over the weekend will continue to provide a northeast to southwest steering flow where storms that initiate over the mountains move into a region of higher anomalous mid-level moisture over the deserts.
Frontal boundary across North FL has become fairly diffuse as weak high pressure builds north of the region and will limit convection across SE GA to just a few isolated showers.
An upper level trough will swing across the Northern Plains/Great Lakes region today, sending a cold front south into the Big Country with large hail and wind gusts greater 50 knots. Ahead of the front, hot conditions are expected with highs this afternoon generally in the low to mid 90s. Cooler temperatures will filter in behind the front with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
A weak cold front, currently extending along the Dallas/Fort Worth area, will enter our region overnight tonight. Highs will generally be in the 80s, with a few spots reaching the low 90s.
Currently, as of 3am, the vast majority of the low-level/near- surface smoke appears to have cleared south of the CWA. WAA through the column with the approach of an upper-level ridge will result in more seasonable temperatures across the area Saturday, with highs most likely between 70F and 80F.
(This evening through Saturday) An upper low continues to spin over Baja Cali, while another low moves into the Great Lakes Region today. However, there are a few thunderstorms developing along the higher terrain in New Mexico this afternoon. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds have moved in from the north this morning with temperatures a bit cooler than previously forecasted in the 70s and then lower 80s across the far southern zones. High clouds will filter north across the area with a fetch of southwesterly flow aloft around the low still positioned near northwest Mexico.
250 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 A weak surface cold frontal trough is currently moving across northeastern IL into northwestern IN. Otherwise, dry and seasonable weather is expected for Saturday, with inland highs topping out in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies. However, an onshore wind will make for cooler conditions (around 60) along the northeastern IL and northwestern IN Lake Michigan shores.
Temperatures rise into the lower to middle 80's for most locations today. The previous weak disturbance moves off to the east as upper level ridging prevails.
Latest hi res guidance progs the center of high pressure to be near the tri-state area by early morning Saturday.
332 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 Key Messages: * Cooler temperatures tonight with lows dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
An upper level trough will be exiting the area to the east this evening, with northwest flow setting up for the remainder of the period. At the surface, high pressure has now settled in over the region, and will remain tonight into the morning hours on Saturday. The high gets pushed to the east/southeast Saturday afternoon as an elongated area of low pressure tracks across the Rockies. Winds will shift to a south to southwesterly direction on Saturday, which will begin to usher warmer air back into the region. High temperatures on Saturday will be mainly in the 70s, with a few locations west of the Missouri River possibly reaching the lower 80s. Lows Saturday night will be in the mid 40s to the lower 50s.
KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler and breezier today with some smoke lingering aloft. The cold front passage that occurred overnight has cleared out any near surface smoke in the MPX CWA. Northwesterly winds will prevail in the front's wake, bringing in cooler air to end the work week. RAP forecasts also show smoke aloft hanging overhead into Friday evening before the trough over the Great Lakes moves east, clearing out clouds and smoke by Friday evening. Lows Friday night are forecast in the low to mid 40s. This weekend looks really nice with mostly sunny skies as high pressure moves east over the central CONUS.
High pressure shifts east tomorrow as an upper level trough and advancing cold front moves into the region.
1235 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 Early this morning, a potent upper trough was entering the Great Lakes region with a cold front extending from central Wisconsin to the central plains. Northerly winds behind the aforementioned cold front should push this smoke southward into central Kansas (and perhaps further south) as rain moves out of the area. Temperatures will be in generally be in the 70s, which is near to slightly cooler for this time of year. Surface ridging sliding into the area, radiational cooling each night may lead to the development of shallow fog, especially in areas that receive the most rainfall.
Showers associated with a pre-frontal trough will continue to shift east this afternoon. Have made some modifications to the short term to account for this but still think it is reasonable for us to hit the low to mid 70's, based on upstream trends and model soundings. Latest guidance continues to have the front reaching our eastern OH zones shortly after midnight, and east of the ridges by early afternoon Saturday. High pressure will then build over the Ohio valley and Great Lakes region through the end of the weekend, returning dry conditions. Temperatures will fall to slightly below normal on Saturday in the wake of the cold front.
Smoke remains common across the region, but the ridge of high pressure building into the region is changing the flow pattern and beginning to cut the Northern Rockies off from the Canadian wildfires smoke source.
Otherwise, slightly cooler temperatures are expected Saturday as cloud cover increases ahead of a diffuse cold front.
1222 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 An upper level low presently situated over northern MN will track into northern MI by this evening, driving much cooler air into our area. 850 mb temperatures will be a good 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, and we are looking at highs well below normal - in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
1032 PM EDT Fri May 19 2023 Surface observations depict a cold front located near the KY/IL border with on-going convection painted on radar. High pressure shifts east tomorrow as an upper level trough and advancing cold front moves into the region.
SPC mesoanalysis indicates plenty of instability east of the dry-line (ML CAPE of generally 1500-2000 J/Kg, and likely to increase to 3000 J/Kg within a few hours as good moisture advection brings in surface dewpoints into the low 70s), with no convective inhibition (i. Severe Thunderstorms Likely and Isolated Flash Flooding Early this afternoon, much of west central Texas is in the warm sector, ahead of a cold front. The pre storm environment/warm sector indicates moderate to locally strong buoyancy and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Much cooler Saturday with highs in the 70s.
629 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 This Afternoon/Tonight: The cooler and breezy day continues. Taking a look at satellite imagery, stratus continues to move into the from the northeast in response to an upper level low situated over the Great Lakes Region. With winds expected to generally remain out of the north to northwest this afternoon, have decided to slight decrease our highs into the low to upper 50s since we're trending colder.
657 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Brisk tonight into Saturday morning as lows drop into the low to mid 40s. This allows our temperatures to plummet into the low to mid 40s by Saturday AM.
749 PM EDT Fri May 19 2023 A cold front will bring showers to the region starting late tonight, then lasting through at least early Saturday afternoon.
842 PM EDT Fri May 19 2023 High pressure will build into the region from the west tonight.
728 PM EDT Fri May 19 2023 A cold front will bring showers to the region starting late tonight, then lasting through at least early Saturday afternoon.
With significant clouds holding off until very late tonight in southeast KY, have allowed for a little bit cooler low temps there.
Above a rather shallow boundary layer, weak troughing is present across the area and moisture has crept up over the past 24 hours. Current radar data indicate widely scattered showers surrounding the Lower and Middle Keys.
1045 PM EDT Fri May 19 2023 High pressure will build into the region from the west tonight.
637 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 (This evening through tonight) A strong cold front is advancing to the southeast across central Oklahoma this afternoon. An unstable air mass (MLCAPE ~2000 to 2500 J/kg) combined with moderate shear (effective bulk shear ~30 to 35 knots) will be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms as the cold front moves into south central/southeast Oklahoma. The cold front will continue to move to the southeast and will exit southeast Oklahoma early to mid-evening--ending any convection.
638 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough over the Gulf of California, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front has pushed to south of the Pecos, but the colder air has hung up diurnally as expected, and compressional warming ahead of the front should add a few degrees onto current temps before the afternoon is out.
Cooler air moving in from the ESE and upgliding in the 295-300K region had resulted in persistent lower level clouds for the last 24 hours or so. Dry conditions should continue this evening and into the overnight, as low temperatures cool into the low/mid 60s (cooler east, warmer west). Another cold front, this one heading to the SE now situated from western Lake Erie, to SE Missouri and West Texas will approach the forecast area before daybreak Saturday.
629 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 A weak surface cold frontal trough is currently moving across northeastern IL into northwestern IN. Otherwise, dry and seasonable weather is expected for Saturday, with inland highs topping out in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies. However, an onshore wind will make for cooler conditions (around 60) along the northeastern IL and northwestern IN Lake Michigan shores.
RAP model smoke progs show conditions improving through the night in the northwest flow behind the cold front.
/NEW/ /Through Saturday/ Scattered strong and severe thunderstorms developed along a prefrontal trough's convergent wind shift axis earlier this afternoon, and outflow boundaries have since ignited new convection in its vicinity. The true cold front along with its associated thermodynamic discontinuities is just beginning to enter our northwestern CWA as of 7 PM, and this boundary will continue southward through the rest of the evening and overnight.
Key Messages: * Cooler temperatures tonight with lows dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
(The rest of tonight) Cold front has pushed into far southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas this evening.
Otherwise, high pressure will be in control of our weather regime this weekend.
539 PM MDT Fri May 19 2023 High pressure is currently building over the state today. Some of the warmer spots, like Greybull and Worland, could be well up into the 80s.
SPC mesoanalysis indicates plenty of instability east of the dry-line (ML CAPE of generally 1500-2000 J/K, and likely to increase to 3000 J/KH within a few hours as good moisture advection brings in surface dewpoints into the low 70s), with no convective inhibition (i. Severe Thunderstorms Likely and Isolated Flash Flooding Possible Early this afternoon, much of west central Texas is in the warm sector, ahead of a cold front. The pre storm environment/warm sector indicates moderate to locally strong buoyancy and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Much cooler Saturday with highs in the 70s.
Showers and patchy drizzle will persist in the vicinity of the cold front tonight, ending from north to south as the 500-mb trough axis sweeps across the region. MJA 20z/3pm surface analysis shows a cold front settling southward toward the I-70 corridor. In addition to the showers, area obs/webcams have shown smoke from Canadian wildfires mixing to the surface behind the cold front. Lows tonight will be considerably cooler than last night. Highs on Saturday will be below normal for this time of year in the lower 70s.
615 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 (This evening through Saturday) An upper low continues to spin over Baja Cali, while another low moves into the Great Lakes Region today. However, there are a few thunderstorms developing along the higher terrain in New Mexico this afternoon. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds have moved in from the north this morning with temperatures a bit cooler than previously forecasted in the 70s and then lower 80s across the far southern zones. High clouds will filter north across the area with a fetch of southwesterly flow aloft around the low still positioned near northwest Mexico.
Clouds are draped along the front with a separate area of clouds underneath the upper low in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Discussion: A cold front has pushed just east of the area this morning. Precipitation sits just south of the area with some clouds moving into the far south, High pressure is forecast to build southeastward tonight then across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri during the day on Saturday. Northerly winds will diminish to 5 to 10 MPH tonight with winds become light during the day on Saturday with high pressure overhead.
Today Currently early this morning, a closed low is centered near Michigan with a downstream 80 to 90 kt jet extending from the Ohio River Valley into Canada. Another 100+ kt jet is also advancing from the Southern Mississippi River Valley with a cold front located near the Ohio River. Much of the high-res model guidance shows less of an inversion in southern portions of the area, indicating a better thermodynamic profile.
(Through Tonight) Weak upper ridge will move over the forecast area through Tonight, leading to a drier short term period with only isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers/t-storms mainly over our southern counties in n-ctrl FL.
Will monitor this for the potential to impact overnight lows, which could stay warmer than expected under low cloud cover. Wraparound moisture and deep layer q- vector convergence associated with the low is supporting isolated to scattered showers mainly over Lake Superior and the western counties of the U. this evening before sliding se of the fcst late tonight with the exiting closed low. Look for min temps ranging from the mid 30s interior west to the lower to mid 40s mainly east and south central. By 12Z Saturday, the low that forced showers today will be departed and PoPs will be exiting the region.
1050 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 This Afternoon/Tonight: The cooler and breezy day continues. Taking a look at satellite imagery, stratus continues to move into the from the northeast in response to an upper level low situated over the Great Lakes Region. With winds expected to generally remain out of the north to northwest this afternoon, have decided to slight decrease our highs into the low to upper 50s since we're trending colder. Saturday & Sunday: Heading into the rest of the weekend, the warm and quiet conditions will continue as surface ridging continues to move through the northern plains. As better mixing sets in during the day, temperatures will warm up relatively quickly with highs expected to peak in the low to upper 70s.
Right now a surface cold front is making its way across the area early this morning. Cloud cover should gradually decrease through the day with max temps in the low to mid 70s. Skies clear up overnight with winds slackening as ridging moves in overhead and will probably see a cooler night than we have seen the last couple weeks with lows in the mid 50s.
While surface dewpoints are still in the low to mid 60s across Central Alabama, dewpoints have risen to near 70 across southern Mississippi. The higher dewpoints will advect into areas along and south of I-20 today ahead of an approaching cold front. With temperatures expected to climb into the lower to middle 80s south of I-20, forecast soundings show surface based CAPE values near 2500 j/kg and 0-6km bulk shear 35-40 kts. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower to middle 80s most areas.
1216 AM CDT Sat May 20 2023 (This evening through Saturday) An upper low continues to spin over Baja Cali, while another low moves into the Great Lakes Region today. However, there are a few thunderstorms developing along the higher terrain in New Mexico this afternoon. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds have moved in from the north this morning with temperatures a bit cooler than previously forecasted in the 70s and then lower 80s across the far southern zones. High clouds will filter north across the area with a fetch of southwesterly flow aloft around the low still positioned near northwest Mexico.
Upper level ridging will build in for the weekend, which will result in northwesterly flow aloft but increasingly warm temperatures. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will likely develop across the higher terrain thanks to afternoon instability, though aside from some outflow breezes and some rain these showers and storms should not impact much.
This rain will end in far east-central Kansas by mid evening as the low moves away and much drier air is advected in from the north. High pressure then moves in late tonight and stays in charge through Sunday.
Severe Thunderstorms Likely and Isolated Flash Flooding Early this afternoon, much of west central Texas is in the warm sector, ahead of a cold front. The pre storm environment/warm sector indicates moderate to locally strong buoyancy and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Much cooler Saturday with highs in the 70s.
157 AM MDT Sat May 20 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the western CONUS with ridge topping impulse diving southeast across ALTA. Return flow will usher warmer air back into the region as western CONUS ridge expands eastward.
334 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 Discussion/Marine - Low Clouds Through Midday, Then Clearing A region of stratus across northern Lower Michigan will propagate S/SE into the morning hours as wraparound low level moisture, associated with the departing closed upper low, advects into the area.
Heading into the evening, additional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop over NWrn AR before diving S and E across the state along and ahead of an advancing cold front. Dry and cooler weather will continue through the weekend in the wake of the frontal boundary.
Ridging over the western United States will dominate the pattern as a warmup continues. Highs will be a bit warmer today ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s.
/NEW/ /Overnight through Sunday/ Showers and thunderstorms continue to push southward into Central TX this evening ahead of a cold front. Pesky upper troughing will persist back to the west across northwest Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico today and this will likely keep a steady stream of high clouds in across the state for much of the day. Despite the clouds, it'll be cooler and drier across North and Central TX behind the front with highs in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints falling in to the 50s. It'll be a touch warmer on Sunday with highs near 80.
343 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 Occasional showers can be expected this morning as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through the first part of the upcoming week. The cold front is located across our far southeastern counties early this morning where a broken line of showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm is lifting northeast across portions of northeast Kentucky and south Central Ohio. With cooler air filtering into the region, highs today will range from the mid 60s in the northwest to the lower 70s across the south.
(Today) Cooler airmass continues to settle over the region early this morning with north winds continuing to gust around 20 mph across southeast OK.
203 AM CDT Sat May 20 2023 Issued at 155 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2023 Overview: Quiet and cool weather expected today with sunny skies and highs in the low 70s. Expect afternoon highs to only reach the low 70s. The high will gradually shift east during the day, allowing for light winds to turn back to the south.