Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
212 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023 High pressure will broadly ridge into the region from offshore through this weekend. High pressure will broadly ridge in from offshore today, with light southerly flow continuing. Temperatures will be slow to cool, but will eventually get into the low to mid 70s by morning, with coastal areas remaining in the upper 70s to around 80.
254 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 The main challenge for the short term for this forecast cycle will be the location/progression of an incoming trough over Northern Kansas. An upper level ridge is still in place over Western Kansas and into the Colorado which will keep temperatures about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. The main issues with the continuation of this higher heat will be the orientation of the incoming weak front from the west and the where the convective debris will be located during the day. That said, areas just to the south of trough/front could see come atmospheric compression which would increase the temperatures a decent amount as well this afternoon.
332 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023 The Florida peninsula remains along the eastern periphery of high pressure sitting aloft over the Atlantic with troughing well to our north.
The upper level ridge continues to slowly drift west and will prominently sit over New Mexico today. With slightly decreased subsidence, we could see some more high clouds today and tonight as some more upper level moisture works its way around the periphery of the ridge and into our area. Temperatures will be just slightly cooler than they were yesterday with most places staying between 100- 104 thanks in part to lower 850 mb temps over the area. With the 850 mb thermal ridge well off to our west, 850 mb temps will be markedly lower than they've been the past few days in the 23-27 deg C range.
North winds will then increase along the coast Wednesday afternoon/evening as a surface thermal trough resides over the area.
An intensifying upper level ridge continues to amplify and dominate a hot and generally dry forecast for the Mid-South.
Upper ridging continues to be the dominant feature across the western and central CONUS. H5 heights over New Mexico are in the 595 to 600 dm range, with a 570 to 580 dm ridge axis extending northward, well into Manitoba and Saskatchewan. At the lower levels, a weak trough in the 850 to 700 mb layer is progressing eastward across northwestern Minnesota.
352 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 Today and Tonight: Continued dry with warmer than normal afternoon highs today and near normal morning lows tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a 1020mb high ridging to the southwest across our CWA from the southern Appalachians. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a large 598dam high centered just southeast of the Four Corners region and ridging east across our CWA. This ridging surface and aloft will continue to limit rain chances and allow for a gradual warming trend. Under mostly clear skies and a near calm wind again tonight, temperatures will bottom back into the lower 70s by morning.
However, influence of an upper level ridge to the west will keep shower activity from becoming too widespread.
1049 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Upper ridge remains over the region this afternoon with temperatures mainly in the 90s. Dewpoints to the east of the trough are around 71F, and generally from 50-60F to the west of the trough. Upper support is tentatively weak, however a weak disturbance in the flow around the upper ridge may be enough to overcome the inversion, allowing thunderstorms to develop. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the lower to mid 90s over northeastern Wyoming to around 100 degrees over parts of western South Dakota.
South Texas remains on eastern periphery of the summer heat Ridge and with an approaching inverted trough from the Eastern Gulf a dry north-northeast flow is drying out the atmosphere.
Subsidence underneath the Ridge keeps POPs out of the forecast for most areas.
205 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2023 Cold front moves to the east this morning taking the showers with it. Upper trough tracks across the Canada Prairies today and flattens the ridge.
Kept PoPs in the 20-20% range for this area as Saharan Dust and subsidence from the upper level ridge may limit rain chances.
Despite modest weakening of this high today from 600dm to 598dm, the overall pattern remains unchanged through tonight with thicknesses showing no improvement over yesterday.
The upper level ridge that nudged into the Southeastern states looks to retreat back west a bit through the day today, leaving the Tennessee Valley in an area of weakness or col (with a ridge to the west and a ridge over the Atlantic). High temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 90s today.
However, the highest PoPs (30-40%) will remain across the SE Big Bend.
Low temperatures will fall into the low 70s. Only small changes can occur and that's to warm things a bit each day as strong radiation works to warm the lower levels. Highs tomorrow will be a tad warmer, 95-98 expected. Overall, moisture is on the lower side which is keeping humidity in check some. In addition a low level 1020mb high placed over the Blue Ridge mountain region will extend back over our CWA.
with the higher cloud bases. hot and humid conditions will persist again today with the dome of high pressure holding over the Southern Plains. Breezy to gusty southerly winds combined with the low level thermal axis will again create high temperatures in the mid 90s to around 102 degrees for the CWA.
Weak upper level troughing/zonal flow will persist through the forecast period. Minimal change in the overall pattern through the next 48 hours, with upper level zonal flow/ very weak troughing, with persistent onshore flow during the daytime and weak northerly flow overnight.
Heights gradually start increasing today as the 5h trough that was lingering west of the area has filled in/departed. Mid-level ridging over the Southwest and the western Atlantic will start to expand, leading to the height increase over the Southeast. Ridging aloft will keep the mid-levels dry and work to limit diurnal convection. Daytime highs will be similar to or slightly warmer than Tue, anywhere from 2 to 6 degrees above climo. Persistence forecast really as the Bermuda Ridge builds in from the east for the late week period. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the middle 70s.
Broad closed H500 upper high pressure is set to remain centered over the Four Corners/Upper Rio Grande Valley region thru the remainder of the week. The influence of upper high pressure, and strong low-lvl Srly flow/WAA wl keep increasingly hot high temps in place.
1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Upper level high pressure centered over northern New Mexico this afternoon and will make a slight shift westward and possibly a slight weakening.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper ridge still centered over NM today and Thursday so expecting little change in the overall wx. Upper trough hits the NW coast tonight and will just roll over the top of the ridge Thursday.
1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday) Trough begins to pull away to the NE, while the ridge out west begins to build slightly east. Increasing isoheights means a slightly warmer trend in the short term. Highs should reach the low to mid-90s today under mostly clear skies. Temperatures overnight a tad higher as warm air advection pulls in slightly warmer and moist air from the east. Tomorrow, should be a a bit warmer as indicated by increasing low-level thicknesses.
1109 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 As expected, showers and thunderstorms have fired off the higher terrain across eastern Utah and western Colorado. Tomorrow will be very similar to today, with very little change in the placement of the center of the high to our south. Temperatures will continue to run 5-10 degrees above normal for late July, meaning low 100s for the lower desert valleys, and upper 60s to low 70s for the mountain towns. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the end of the week as high pressure remains anchored just to the south of the forecast area.
Discussion: Anomalous upper ridging remains centered across the Southern Great Plains with northwest upper level flow across our region. Boundary layer thickness and temperature values will be a few degrees warmer today than yesterday which will allow heat index values to be near or in excess of 100F across the southern Tennessee Valley near Chattanooga. With warmer mid-level temperatures today, lapse rates and surface based instability will be lower.
Persistent troughing that has been with us for over a week or so across the eastern US is gradually lifting northward, with upper level ridging building in across the eastern and southeastern CONUS in its wake. We'll mix drier air from the low levels to the surface this afternoon, helping to limit instability and keep temps quite warm. Tonight, rinse and repeat of last night, with mostly clear skies and lows in the lower 70s.
Otherwise a quiet weather evening with just some thin cirrus floating by overhead on the western edge of the Atlantic ridge. Upper trough across the region will slowly weaken as both the upper ridge over the western Atlantic and across the southwestern U. Models generally redevelop eastern CONUS trough by the weekend along the east side of main ridge over the south-central CONUS. Upper level ridging is slowly building into the region, and this is combining with seasonally low moisture to keep the weather quiet.
1141 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 At 500mb and 700mb, a trough is situated over Quebec/Hudson Bay to the eastern Great Lakes and mid eastern seaboard while a ridge covers the Desert Southwest to Saskatchewan/Manitoba (central Canada). There is a trough from British Columbia to the Pacific Northwest. A subtle wave has scooted off of the western trough decreasing the ridge and tracking through the Northern Plains. | Highlights: 1) Hot - Temps around 100 degrees 2) Slight chance for storms in NC KS tonight Challenges: Dewpoints and associated heat indices Change: Slight reduction in time and coverage for slight chances tonight The wave that has helped undercut the ridge will track southeast to the Upper Mississippi River Valley this evening into early Wednesday.
After yesterday evening's severe thunderstorm moved over the Lower Keys, scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to percolate across our area bringing bouts of frequent lightning strikes and wind gusts up to near 30 knots. Temperatures across the island change range in the lower to mid 80s with the low end dependent upon whether precipitation fell at the observation site. Rain chances still peak on Thursday coinciding with the closest approaches of the TUTT and an inverted low level trough nosing in from the east.
Mid- to high-level clouds rounding about the northeastern periphery of the mid-level ridge may nudge into portions of North Texas during the day keeping temperatures just a tad "cooler". Langfeld Previous Discussion: /Through Thursday/ Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist through the short- term period as the region remains under the influence of a mid- level ridge centered over New Mexico. By the latter half of Thursday, an inverted mid-level trough will begin to push overhead Northern Mexico and South Texas from the Gulf of Mexico. The mid-level ridge will remain the predominate feature locally and keep the stagnant weather pattern in-place through the weekend.
625 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper ridge still centered over NM today and Thursday so expecting little change in the overall wx. Upper trough hits the NW coast tonight and will just roll over the top of the ridge Thursday.
954 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023 High pressure will broadly ridge into the region from offshore through this weekend. High pressure will broadly ridge in from offshore today, with light southerly flow continuing. Temperatures will be slow to cool, but will eventually get into the low to mid 70s by morning, with coastal areas remaining in the upper 70s to around 80. Upper ridging over the western Atlantic builds westward into the region for the mid to late week period.
An upper level trough continues to move northward across our border with Canada, with southerly winds this morning becoming westerly this afternoon and increasing from light and variable to between 15 mph and 25 mph with gusts between 25 mph and 40 mph. As the upper level trough moves westward today, winds diminish overnight becoming light and variable.
Overall, consider the SVR risk marginal for today given the elevated nature of the storms this morning and subsidence suppressing deep convection over the cold front later today. Clearing skies for tnt and continuing into Thu as weak high pressure moves across the region. High temps in the lower to middle 90s inland from Lake MI still looks good for Thu, with Heat Index Values in the middle to upper 90s.
The Florida peninsula remains along the eastern periphery of high pressure sitting aloft over the Atlantic with troughing well to our north.
The NAM90 is close to the NBM deterministic but the NBM has a few locations a bit warmer where the NAM90 is a bit closer. The lower dew pts will remain with us as we mix them down during the day and moisten them back up during the evening and overnight. Good thing is the lower dew pt numbers will help keep the HI numbers down for now.
Weak high pressure over the area will produce light winds over the eastern gulf waters today. By Thursday, high pressure near Bermuda will ridge westward over Florida producing a predominant easterly wind flow. This will produce scattered to numerous showers and storms moving from east to west with the highest chances during the evening hours.
Temperatures will quickly rise into the low and mid 90s, except near 90 or even upper 80s at the beach. Very light easterly synoptic winds are expected to develop through the day as a ridge axis orients itself well north of the area. A weak H3 low north of the Cayman Islands is providing diffluence atop a low-level trough axis located just east of Florida. The environment near this trough is moisture-rich: broad 2"+ PW's are noted on UWISC MIMIC composite imagery.
453 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2023 07z surface analyst had a trough from central ND into central NE. Thursday through Wednesday, southern CONUS upper ridge will dominate with CWA on the northern edge.
614 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 Today and Tonight: Continued dry with warmer than normal afternoon highs today and near normal morning lows tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a 1020mb high ridging to the southwest across our CWA from the southern Appalachians. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a large 598dam high centered just southeast of the Four Corners region and ridging east across our CWA. This ridging surface and aloft will continue to limit rain chances and allow for a gradual warming trend. Under mostly clear skies and a near calm wind again tonight, temperatures will bottom back into the lower 70s by morning.
556 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 The main challenge for the short term for this forecast cycle will be the location/progression of an incoming trough over Northern Kansas. An upper level ridge is still in place over Western Kansas and into the Colorado which will keep temperatures about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. The main issues with the continuation of this higher heat will be the orientation of the incoming weak front from the west and the where the convective debris will be located during the day. That said, areas just to the south of trough/front could see come atmospheric compression which would increase the temperatures a decent amount as well this afternoon.
Much of western North Dakota will remain cooler then the central and eastern half. The aforementioned cold front will move through the region today bringing in a slight chance for precipitation across the state. Temperatures are forecast to drop 10 degrees Thursday across the state as a cooler airmass moves into the region.
(Rest of Today) Temps are quickly rebounding from their earlier lows in the upper 60s/near 70F, with current reading climbing into the lower 80s for many spots. Another seasonably warm day is expected across the TN Valley this afternoon, with highs reaching the lower/mid 90s and max heat indices approaching the 100-104F range. The region itself remains sandwiched between an upper ridge pattern over the SW states and a weak upper ridge axis across the srn Atlantic Basin.
628 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023 High pressure will broadly ridge into the region from offshore through this weekend. High pressure will broadly ridge in from offshore today, with light southerly flow continuing. Temperatures will be slow to cool, but will eventually get into the low to mid 70s by morning, with coastal areas remaining in the upper 70s to around 80. Upper ridging over the western Atlantic builds westward into the region for the mid to late week period.
617 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 An intensifying upper level ridge continues to amplify and dominate a hot and generally dry forecast for the Mid-South.
It's almost like the trough to our north and the ridge to our south are playing tug of war with the marine layer on which one will have the more dominant influence. Now (3 am) there is a growing stratus deck from Bodega Bay southward along the SF Peninsula wrapping into the Monterey Peninsula which includes stratus pushing through the Golden Gate Bridge and filling the East Bay from Richmond to Oakland. Warmer temperatures inland away from the marine influence will range in the upper 70s into the 90s. So when will the marine layer deepen??? Well, this afternoon looks more promising as the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF all indicate a weak vorticity max moving into the Bay Area associated with the trough over NorCal.
Temperatures for interior valleys will be near normal the next couple of days as NW California remains sandwiched between an upper trough over the northeast Pacific and a massive ridge aloft centered over the Desert Southwest. Deeper troughing extending southward from the Gulf of Alaska toward the end of the week and over the weekend should yield slightly below normal temperatures for the interior valleys. Greatest uncertainty is with another reinforcing trough from the Gulf of Alaska.
Ahead of this low, hot and humid air will remain in place with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s. Today will see the most widespread hot temperatures as the upper ridge builds again and H85 temps climb to +30C. At the surface this will mean temps in the low 100s from the James Valley west with upper 90s east. However, heat indices will be tricky with the incoming drier air behind the low. A trailing, backdoor cold front will push cooler air in from the north on Thursday.
An upper trough will be offshore through the weekend with a series of disturbances moving across Western Washington.
A low pressure system off the coast of Vancouver Island and a Four Corners high are the major synoptic features impacting southern Oregon and Northern California this week. Upper level southwest flow has transitioned into zonal flow aloft as the trough weakened today. North winds will then increase along the coast Wednesday afternoon/evening as a surface thermal trough resides over the area.
Discussion: Anomalous upper ridging to our west is pushing 500 mb heights higher with time over the area as well as 850 temps that will be about 2 deg C warmer tomorrow compared to today. Temperatures tomorrow will be around a couple of degrees warmer across the area with very similar heat index values as today across the Southern Valley.
(This evening through Thursday) A large upper ridge continues to bring hot and dry conditions across the region. High temperatures similar to yesterday in the low 100s are expected.
Still, with 40-45 kt 500 mb flow, 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE sitting just south of the region, and warm front near I-94 corridor, any new storms that form could become severe. - Heat and humidity continues Thursday A weak ridge of high pressure will sit overhead on Thursday, with light winds and patchy fog early giving way to mostly sunny skies (just scattered CU).
Other than a few passing high clouds and some afternoon scattered CU, subsidence associated with the aforementioned upper ridge, centered just east of the Four Corners Region, has kept the weather quiet across the area. But, those storms will have a difficult time overcoming the ridge, as it is expected to generally remain in place.
Early afternoon satellite imagery was showing a low pressure system migrating slowly east into CNTRL Canada as upper level moisture lifted into SE Idaho on the periphery of the monsoon high centered over NRN New Mexico triggering afternoon convection across the Bear Lake region. Looking upstream to the NW, several weak disturbances were noted rotating around the SW periphery of the Canadian trough toward the NW coast.
Scattered storms are expected to develop over the high plains region later this afternoon and spread eastward towards central Kansas by late evening.
Weak ridging will be in place at 500mb. Due to the onshore flow, afternoon temperatures will range from east to west, with highs each afternoon in the upper 80s at the coast, to the lower to mid 90s inland.
133 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 High pressure and upper-level ridging will prevail over the region today - resulting in mostly dry conditions through the evening. /NF/ Today and Tonight: Continued dry with warmer than normal afternoon highs today and near normal morning lows tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a 1020mb high ridging to the southwest across our CWA from the southern Appalachians. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a large 598dam high centered just southeast of the Four Corners region and ridging east across our CWA. This ridging surface and aloft will continue to limit rain chances and allow for a gradual warming trend. Under mostly clear skies and a near calm wind again tonight, temperatures will bottom back into the lower 70s by morning.
1044 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper ridge still centered over NM today and Thursday so expecting little change in the overall wx. Upper trough hits the NW coast tonight and will just roll over the top of the ridge Thursday.
/Issued 114 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023/ /Afternoon Through Through Thursday/ A broad, yet stout and strong (near 600 decameter) upper high will remain centered west of the area near the Four Corners/Desert SW regions, but it's grip will maintain well east over our area. These areas may see a 1-2 hour drop during the pre-dawn hours into the lower-mid 70s. /NEW/ Update: No major changes were made to the forecast as the upper level high dominates over the region. The mid-level ridge will remain the predominate feature locally and keep the stagnant weather pattern in-place through the weekend.
7 inches across the aforementioned area late this afternoon in association with a weak, inverted upper level trough drifting west across the northern Gulf Coast late today into tomorrow.
Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the lower to perhaps approaching the middle 90s this afternoon with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. CJC An intensifying upper level ridge continues to amplify and dominate a hot and generally dry forecast for the Mid-South.
An upper level ridge and associated warm air aloft has made for another very warm day across the region. This will keep the warmest temperatures along that region, though temps to the north will be just slightly cooler. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the lower to mid 90s across northern South Dakota and west central Minnesota, to the upper 90s to around 100 across the across south central South Dakota. This period looks to feature cooler and more comfortable conditions setting up for the end of the week through the upcoming weekend as the highest heat and humidity gets shunted south of our area. Most of the deterministic and ensemble guidance is in fair agreement on showing a broad upper ridge splayed out across the southern half of the CONUS.