Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
340 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 High pressure will remain over the region through the middle of the week. Breezy northeast winds are expected this morning and afternoon as high pressure to the north builds south, with wind gusts up to 25 mph possible. Winds will begin to diminish this evening, and remain light overnight as the high to our north builds more into the Mid- Atlantic. The upper ridge to our west will flatten as it moves east towards our area.
Ridging aloft will subtly increase across the region through the course of the forecast period. As this happens, high pressure at the surface will steadily build back into the forecast area from the east. Temperatures will be a little warmer this afternoon as highs top out around 70, while slightly drier air filters into the area under east northeasterly flow.
316 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 A high pressure ridge affects our region through at least the middle of this week. Simultaneously, the core of the ridge should wobble and drift from near Lake Huron and the Lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic states and then toward the southern Appalachians. High pressure aloft builds E'ward from the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes through tonight.
(Today) Evidence of drier air filtering into the area can be seen in early morning satellite imagery, as high pressure builds over the Appalachians and northeasterly flow brings in drier mountain air. Afternoon highs will be a bit warmer today, rising to the mid to upper 60s.
1131 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2023 Continued dry and progressively warmer weather is anticipated for the remainder of the weekend.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will result in dry conditions, light NNE winds, and seasonable temperature today. A Rex block pattern sets up though the period with pseudo- stationary low pressure slowly deepening over the western Gulf of Mexico.
This eastward shift of the surface cyclone will begin strengthening the winds out of the south, bringing increased moisture into the region and increased cloudiness, which will help keep low temperatures higher Saturday night into Sunday. As the upper level trough enters the region, precipitation chances will begin to increase across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. With the upper level trough's movement eastward into the central and southern Plains, increased upper level ridging will promote a more north to south movement of the upper level trough, slowing the movement of the trough through western Oklahoma/western north Texas, as well as the OK/TX panhandles.
142 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 High pressure will continue to allow for dry weather through the remainder of the weekend, with a mainly clear sky. As of 130 am, midlevel trough passing through with little fanfare other than a patch of midlevel clouds from the Capital District south. Height rises build in behind the trough for the upcoming day with abundant sunshine. High pressure overhead means temperature advection will be nil amid light winds, but slight airmass modification will lead to highs coming up a few degrees milder than Saturday, with highs in the mid-40s to mid-50s, right near climo. Ridge remains overhead both at the surface and aloft tonight, leading to good radiational cooling again.
Should see increase in clouds by this afternoon as weak upper low drops south into the Great Plains on eastern side of amplifying ridge.
then mostly sunny and warmer today. Large area of strong high pressure is centered just east of Michigan early this morning. a weak moisture-starved low level trough axis will lean into Northern Michigan tonight. expect mainly sunny skies today with warm afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s and lower 50s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the low to mid 60s across Northern Lower Michigan.
324 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023 A warm front has nosed as far north as Watertown this morning and stretches back to the southwest.
1234 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Satellite shows the low clouds that developed along the Trans Pecos this morning quickly dissipating, and temperatures warm this afternoon to the low to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies. On Sunday, the thermal ridge is positioned just to the west of the region and temperatures respond, giving highs in the 70s and 80s for Easter Sunday. Outdoor activities may be impacted, however, as a positively tilted trough moves across the Panhandle of Texas, likely bringing some storms to the area Sunday afternoon and evening. Models are pushing timing of the development of storms later on in the newest runs, likely in response to the slower track of the trough and the need for afternoon heating.
High pressure will remain in place and with cirrus in place slowly exiting to the southeast, a bit more sun made it to some of the forecast areas providing a couple degree boost in temps before the sun set. A Rex block pattern across central North America will maintain the status quo as low pressure advances slowly inland/nwd from the Gulf of Mexico. A broad warm sector sandwiched between the ern-CONUS ridge axis and wrn-CONUS trough will supply unseasonably warm air into the Upper Ohio Valley. High pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes region will maintain VFR and light NE wind through the TAF period. High pressure will maintain VFR through the upcoming week.
Winds will remain light the next 24 hours, with lows tonight in the lower 50s, and highs tomorrow in the 70s.
High pressure will begin to dominate providing a sunny, dry, and warm Easter Sunday. Ridging aloft will dominate beginning today and last into the next few days. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure strengthens as well. This will provide the typical weather you'd expect with high pressure - rain-free, mostly sunny skies, gradual warming, dry air (low RH's), and light winds.
302 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 Low level anticyclonic flow will dominate the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today as mid level ridging expands and amplifies across Lower Mi. Given this and upstream max temps from yesterday, afternoon highs in the lower 60s will be warranted. The gradient will be relatively week, so there will be a lake component to the sfc winds this afternoon, keeping lakeshore communities several degrees cooler.
Mostly clear skies are expected tomorrow as high pressure builds into the area. An upper level ridge will slide into the Plains by mid week with high pressure being the dominate feature east of the area at the surface.
Enough sunshine, through the high cloudiness, however, should allow highs in the mid to upper 70s. Zonal flow aloft will otherwise become northwest this evening, as an upper trough moves through. Temperatures tonight will be mild, in the lower to mid 50s, as stratus redevelops toward midnight.
(Today and tonight) Cloudy and cool conditions are expected through tonight in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Northeasterly flow will remain in place and may even be quite breezy at times, which will keep apparent temperatures a few degrees cooler than the ambient temperatures.
Winds have remained light and out of the southeast, as high pressure in the east slowly continues moving out. Hoppy Easter Folks! High pressure in the east continues to guide southerly flow into the area, which will help increase temperatures even more. With these overnight temperatures, we are getting close (or at) window-open nights! 1) Quiet stretch of weather ahead of us, thanks to a blocking pattern that sets up.
1133 PM MDT Sat Apr 8 2023 Water vapor imagery showing upper trof back axis moving into northwest Colorado this evening with a band of mid level moisture over central and eastern Colorado. The upper trough responsible for the cloudiness and light shower activity is expected to push eastward across the CWA overnight. Sunday looks to have northwestly, then northerly flow aloft as an upper ridge is expected to be pushing eastward into western Colorado by the end of the day.
It will be slightly cooler for most of the high plains with highs in the low to mid 60s, with 40s and 50s west. A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will become the dominant weather feature early this week, promoting dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
This will be ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Have the highest chance pops east of Highway 283 to account for this.
Warm air advection will continue early this week as strong upper ridging develops over the western/central states.
(Today and tonight) Upper trough will make its way out of the Rockies and into the Plains today and tonight. Expected increase in cloud cover through the day and precip will hinder warmer temps, but still anticipate afternoon highs similar to Saturday, except in northwest Oklahoma where precip/cloud cover will occur earlier keeping temps a bit cooler than yesterday. Overnight, the southern end of the trough will slow and then translate more southeast as upper ridging pokes northeast across southwest CONUS into the northern Plains.
628 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023 (Today through Monday) Mid/upper level flow today and tonight becomes northwest Monday as an upper trough drops south over the Central Plains and into Texas. At the surface, broad high pressure roughly centered from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States to extend over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and East Texas through the short-term. As the energy and moderate jet streak associated with the upper trough drops into Texas later Monday the lift provided may be sufficient to produce a few showers. Winds to veer northeast to east and remain light due to the surface ridging north of the region, but this northeast wind will bring in a more mild and modified airmass. Lows tonight remain mild falling into the low to mid 60s.
1048 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 High pressure over the region today will slowly settle to our south for the upcoming week.
904 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 Abundant sunshine under clear skies as high pressure centered over Lake Ontario dominates our weather today. Further south, the back end of a stalled front have started to finally pushed into the Tennessee Valley and away from the lower Ohio Valley. A light east-northeast breeze will start by mid to late morning with some gusts reaching between 17-23 mph amid steepening llvl lapse rates and a ribbon of slightly-enhanced 850-mb winds moving away from the high pressure center. Quiet and cool weather will continue to finish the weekend as high pressure keeps its influence over the Ohio Valley.
951 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 High pressure continues to be the primary weather influencer for the area. High pressure remains southeast of the Ohio Valley for the midweek while an upper level ridge centers over the Great Lakes.
Following that a ridge will build in. Warmer temperatures yesterday contributed to a decent amount of snowmelt today. We continue the trend of warmer temperatures each night as well. Right now, temperatures are running about 5 to 8 degrees warmer than last night. And with the warmer start, another day of a good amount of sunshine, and the continuing lessening snowpack reducing albedo, should bring warmer temperatures again. But, given the long, cold winter, if it gets warmer, no one will care expect for the bean counters. With the ridge axis moving over the area, wind should remain light to moderate as well.
640 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 High pressure continues to be the primary weather influencer for the area. light wind, patchy frost is possible this morning where temperatures will be close to freezing this morning. After a chilly start abundant sunshine will aid temperatures in warming to highs in the lower to middle 60s. High pressure remains southeast of the Ohio Valley for the midweek while an upper level ridge centers over the Great Lakes.
413 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance A rapid transition to much warmer and quieter weather is underway. A deepening trough over the eastern Pacific will gradually shift into western NOAM the next several days, resulting in increased ridging downstream over the central and eastern CONUS. The ridge axis will cross the area mid-week, then shift off to the east as the western trough weakens and slowly progresses across the continent and into the area. The initial zonal flow followed by the development of the upper ridge across the area will result in temperatures warming to much above normal.
This morning's sounding highlighted some moistening in the lower levels, which has helped to support this meager shower development. Temperatures along the island chain have already reached the lower 80s, with dewpoints in the upper 60s. To our north, a cold front is progressing southward along the Florida Peninsula. A nebulous pressure field today will give way to a freshening trend beginning this evening due to an approaching cold front and day time heating over Florida. The cold front is expected to descend through Keys waters, stalling across Cuba.
Meanwhile, a cold front is slowly marching southwards through North Florida. The previously mentioned weak trough along with day time heating, as well as the cold front advancing into Central Florida, will result in modestly freshening breezes this evening. The leading edge of the cold front will sneak into the Keys region late tonight. However, highs on Monday should be a nice step back from recent highs and end up in the lower 80s with dew points pushing towards the mid 60s. This increased flow, and much increased lower level moisture dragged in by the cold front will be enough to increase shower potential.
What's left of the trough should move east of the area Monday, with decreasing mid-high cloudiness expected in its wake during the day Monday. Rex Block is forecast to develop with strong upper ridge setting up over the mid-Mississippi Valley, resulting in day after day of unseasonably warm temperatures and no rain.
This will allow for a slight chance of showers beginning tonight as well as lows near normal in the low to mid 60s.
234 AM PDT Sun Apr 9 2023 A high pressure ridge has moved into the CWA and is strengthening, which will bring warmer than seasonal temperatures today and Monday. After Monday, when the trough begins moving out of the area, it will be replaced by a low pressure system which will bring much cooler temperatures to the area for a few days. As the high pressure ridge that moved into the area begins building, temperatures today and tomorrow are expected to be the warmest of the year so far. On Monday, the ridge will be at its strongest and the CWA will see the highest temperatures of 2023 so far. Minimum temperatures will also be warmer, with the lows for Monday anticipated to be in the mid-50s.
612 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023 (Today) Evidence of drier air filtering into the area can be seen in early morning satellite imagery, as high pressure builds over the Appalachians and northeasterly flow brings in drier mountain air. Afternoon highs will be a bit warmer today, rising to the mid to upper 60s.
The low level moisture is expected to decrease as the morning goes on allowing the stratus to continue to dissipate and bringing back the sun for this Easter Sunday. The afternoon should be quite nice with highs in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees but E/NE winds around 10 mph will make it feel a touch cooler. Back door high pressure will build in from the east overnight with winds slacking which will allow for temperatures to drop into the upper 30s along the plateau to the mid 40s in the southwest. Winds will turn to the south on Monday with temperatures a couple degrees warmer than today.
A sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec southwestward to Texas will continue to dominate the weather today. The sun will efficiently heat the dry airmass, resulting in high temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. characterized by upper ridging over the Midwest/Ohio River Valley and troughing across the Gulf Coast.
High pressure remains at the surface. However, at the same time, a much stronger ridge moves into the southwestern CONUS, and by Monday night extends all the way northeast into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley will continue to drift east today and allow for a relatively weak trough to move into the Central Plains by this afternoon. Afternoon highs will reach the lower 60s northwest to the lower 70s in the south and central. Lows will dip to the lower 40s northwest to the upper 40s in the central to southwest.
443 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023 (Issued 428 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023) Today through Monday: High pressure will retreat east a bit today, allowing for a slightly tighter pressure gradient to move over western Wisconsin. Highs there will stop in the low 60s to upper 50s. Overnight, a weak trough will approach central WI and ultimately dissolve into the background pressure field. Similar quiet, but slightly warmer, conditions will continue Monday with highs stopping at or just short of 70.
Weak ridging will continue to build east of the area today, promoting warm temperatures. Cloud cover will keep areas further north cooler, though a 40 to 60% chance remains for for highs around 70 for much of the Trinity River Valley.
639 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 High pressure over the region today will slowly settle to our south for the upcoming week.
Starting this morning off around 50 degrees which is a tad cooler than this time yesterday but it will warm up into the mid to upper 60s by this afternoon.
649 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 (Today and tonight) Cloudy and cool conditions are expected through tonight in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Northeasterly flow will remain in place and may even be quite breezy at times, which will keep apparent temperatures a few degrees cooler than the ambient temperatures.
then mostly sunny and warmer today. Large area of strong high pressure is centered just east of Michigan early this morning. a weak moisture-starved low level trough axis will lean into Northern Michigan tonight. expect mainly sunny skies today with warm afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s and lower 50s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the low to mid 60s across Northern Lower Michigan. A dampening (weakening) short wave temporarily knocks down the upper level ridge Monday. There is a weak moisture starved surface cold front as well that moves through.
Much more pleasant temperatures are expected area wide today with highs ranging from the lower 70s along the Nature Coast into the middle 80s further south.
A cooler airmass pushes south over the Southeast with the shifting high pressure, maintaining mostly cloudy skies and temperatures below seasonal norms.
651 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 Dry high pressure will set up over the region and then persist through the early to middle part of the week, with slowly warming daytime temperatures.
* Warmer and windier conditions expected mid-late week creating elevated fire weather conditions.
617 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper trough will make its way out of the Rockies and into the Plains today and tonight.
A building ridge of high pressure will continue to support dry conditions and a warming trend, with highs breaking into the 60s today and upper 60s/lower 70s Mon across the ern Magic Valley and Raft River region east to Pocatello. Deterministic NBM temps continue to run at or below the 25th percentile, so have been using the previous day's actual highs and the 50th percentile to nudge the forecast warmer each day in some areas.
608 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023 (Today through Monday night) Thanks to ridging over the SErn CONUS, settled conditions will prevail thru Monday with Erly winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Temperatures out west remain above freezing. An upper level ridge over Western CONUS will move over the Northern Rockies bringing very warm temperatures. This will cause temperatures this afternoon to warm up into the lower 40s out east to 60s out west. These warmer temperatures will continue to eat away the snow pack. Tonight temperatures are forecast to sit in the upper 20s in areas with snow pack while the southwest will remain above freezing.
We do have a southeast flow in the lower levels, but not much of a Gulf moisture fetch at this point. QPF amounts look pretty light, under a quarter inch with, lower moisture content and limited lifting mechanisms keeping pops on the lower end (20-30%).
618 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023 A warm front has nosed as far north as Watertown this morning and stretches back to the southwest. Ensembles still build in upper ridging more quickly than the deterministics west river. So, forecast highs are much warmer along and west of the Missouri, topping out in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Areas with bare ground will easily climb into the lower 70s on Monday across central SD with highs approaching 60 degrees in snow free areas in the east as ridging builds farther east.
947 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 Dry high pressure will set up over the region and then persist through the early to middle part of the week, with slowly warming daytime temperatures.
1016 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 High pressure will build overhead through tonight, before shifting to our south Monday night. High pressure will remain in place to our south through the majority of the week. No major changes to the forecast with high pressure leading to abundant sunshine on this Easter Sunday. Previous discussion High pressure will continue to build southward toward the area today. High pressure will settle overhead tonight.
This will take place as drier air filters into the area around an E Conus ridge from the ENE into the state. This ridge center is expected to slide SE toward the Carolinas through the short term.
This is somewhat concerning as dewpoints are expected to be in the lower 30s over most of the region. Sheltered areas could see some frost development tonight, but even going on the low side of the guidance envelope for low temperatures tonight does not get them near the middle 30s to support putting any frost in the forecast at this time. For highs Monday we ran with the slightly warmer ConsMOS guidance. A blocking pattern will still set up over the region by midweek with upper level high pressure firmly in control of our weather. The area of low pressure that will plague the Gulf Coast states this week will eventually open up and start to move northeast by the weekend and break down our upper level high.
Clearing skies have allowed temps to drop into the 20s to around 30F for the high valleys, and lower 30s to mid 40s for the plains. Beautiful Spring day on tap for the region as a ridge of high pressure starts to build into the southwestern US. Plan on plenty of sun through the morning, then some cloud development initiating over the higher terrain by midday with generally light winds out of the northwest anticipated. Dry and warm conditions will continue, with highs in the 60s for the high valleys, and mid 60s to mid 70s for the plains. Clear skies tonight will make for overnight minimums near seasonal normals, with 20s to around 30F for the high valleys, and 30s across the plains.
With a warmer start today, we should see the warmer temperatures spreading farther into central ND. Temperatures out west remain above freezing. An upper level ridge over Western CONUS will move over the Northern Rockies bringing very warm temperatures. This will cause temperatures this afternoon to warm up into the lower 40s out east to 60s out west. These warmer temperatures will continue to eat away the snow pack. Tonight temperatures are forecast to sit in the upper 20s in areas with snow pack while the southwest will remain above freezing.
(The rest of this afternoon and Tonight) A beautiful afternoon will continue across the area underneath broad surface ridging. Upper low will continue to drop south and become cut off from the main flow over the northern Gulf through mid week as a mid level ridge amplifies and builds northeast along the northern edge of the upper low. The upper ridge will expand across Central Plains and Midwest through the middle part of the week as the upper low remains blocked over the northern Gulf. Southerly winds will increase throughout the week, which along with the warmer temps will likely increase fire weather concerns, especially across the drought stricken locations in northeast Oklahoma.