Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strong winds this afternoon will be easing from west to east as a dry cold front moves through. Slightly cooler high temps in the mid 40s to mid 50s are expected tomorrow.
High pressure will shift east with the next system set to arrive Wednesday night with an initial rain/snow mix changing to snow. At this time, there appears to be a 50 to 80 percent chance for measurable snow of a tenth of an inch over the Little Rockies and north of the Missouri River to the Canadian border, especially the higher elevations near Opheim. A cold front moves through Wed Night that will introduce increasing NW winds.
AC3 An upper level low pressure system will lift east off the gulf coast through Wednesday.
(Rest of tonight) Dense high cloud cover continues moving across the area as a low pressure system slowly shifts east along the Gulf Coast. Upper troughing over the Midwest will become better amplified as it shifts into the Southeast, and a more tropical airmass will be ushered into the area thanks to increasing southeasterly flow.
1007 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2023 High pressure centered from Pennsylvania to New York will drift off the East Coast into Wednesday.
A weak warm front associated with a nearly stationary upper low is expected to lift northward overnight. POPS for tmrw still might be on the high side considering High Res models limit the precip to mainly the Salmon River region.
1104 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 (This evening through Wednesday Night) For this period, weak high pressure at the surface will be ridging into the state from the northeast while north winds remain in place across Southeast Texas. Looking for lots of sun on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s.
The low in the gulf continues slowly eastward on Wednesday and really saw no indications that we needed to veer from the current forecast. Highs will range from the lower 70s north to mid 60s south. The wedge of high pressure will enhance the pressure gradient in combination with the approaching low and this will also cause breezy conditions to develop tonight and tomorrow.
As the trough continues to move eastward through the end of the week, conditions across West Central and SWFL will gradually improve as well.
1050 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2023 A large area of high pressure centered over the mid and upper Ohio River Valley will drift east east over the Commonwealth tonight into Wednesday.
This will make for an ideal day to be outdoors! Tonight: Clear with a light south wind and lows in the lower 40s.
1048 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) During the period, the upper level disturbance will continue to move east of the region, while an upper level high pressure system enters the region from the west. Owing to a drier vertical column, expected slightly cooler temperatures tonight and slightly warmer Wednesday.
Beginning Wednesday evening, a more active weather pattern will bring cooler and more unsettled weather that is forecast to last through the weekend. These clouds should limit the radiational cooling overnight, keeping temperatures a degrees or two warmer than last night for most.
Deterministic and ensemble consensus favors the southwest CONUS upper ridge to continue building/moving east into central and south- central portions of the country this week, favoring warmer than average temperatures.
Forecast remains dry on Monday as upper level ridging nudges eastward, with increasing heights and warming aloft strengthening over the CWA.
The biggest uncertainty still hinges on storms, first developing off the Black Hills, sustaining through the western Sandhills, then eventually tapping into the moist environment east of HWY 61, thus giving the high amount of uncertainty in the development of storm activity across SD kept PoPs limited to isolated. Did trend the forecast slightly cooler than previous, removing the 100 degree potential as a few models have started to trend slightly cooler and would agree and trended towards the slightly cooler models as the majority of the models seem to have a warmer bias. Due to the lower confidence in temperatures breaking the 100 degree mark for Monday,thus not reaching headline criteria, have decided to hold off on issuing any heat headlines for Monday.
This activity is forecast to linger through Monday evening ahead of an approaching cold front, with peak outflow wind gusts of 40-50 mph possible in the afternoon.
801 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Weak low pressure will lift across the area tonight, with a front remaining stalled near the area through early week. High pressure establishes itself over the region by mid to late week. Should be near or a few deg cooler than climo with widespread cloud cover early, becoming more broken during the afternoon.
This convection, in addition to more isolated activity to the southwest in Georgia, is associated with a frontal boundary and a weak area of low pressure to our west. Lows tonight will mostly be in the lower 70s. The axis of an upper level trough will remain just west of the forecast area Monday. Overnight lows in the low 70s. The upper trough axis lifts out of the region heading into midweek with drier air pushing in from the west, limiting atmospheric moisture and rain chances.
Thunderstorms have been farther and fewer in between this afternoon as the upper ridge translates eastward. Activity diminishes quickly with sundown though NAMNest does keep some isolated showers wrapping southward around eastern side of the upper high across the far southeast plains. Upper high translates eastward across central CO on Monday and this will allow temperatures to soar to over 100 degrees across the southeast plains with 90s across the interior valleys, and 70s and 80s for the mountain communities.
637 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Tonight and Monday: Longwave trough axis is progged to remain stalled across the region through Monday. This is in response to amplified upper ridge over the Four Corners & strengthening subtropical Atlantic ridge. With subtle WAA in the low-levels, expect highs to moderate closer to seasonable values in the low-mid 90s & heat indices peak near mid 90s.
As high pressure aloft builds in from the west, temperatures will warm through late week.
A few lingering showers and thunderstorms east of Troy have exited the area, and we should see sunny to mostly sunny skies this afternoon and tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and rising heights as a mid to upper level trough axis centers near the eastern part of the state.
This is all due to active northwest (becoming west) flow on the periphery of a strong ridge centered over the southwest US.
618 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 (This afternoon through Monday Night) A long wave trough with some embed short waves remains set up over the eastern half of the US. This trough will slowly lift and push east early this week. We are seeing a very nice afternoon with some scattered clouds and with good mixing dew points have fallen into the low to mid 60s. Overall we will see quiet conditions again tomorrow as the trough starts to lift out of here. Confidence is on the low side for seeing this as forcing remains weak and soundings don't look overly favorable with poor lapse rates and dry mid-levels. Highs today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and we will add another few degrees on Monday.
The region sits just west of the axis of broad troughing that covers most of the midwest this afternoon. Temps should climb into the lower 90s.
Given the low shear / modest CAPE environment we are not expecting severe weather. This activity looks to be associated with a weak elevated warm front best seen in 850mb dew point fields.
An area of Low pressure will move northeast through eastern North Carolina Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring areas east of the mountains. After Monday, High pressure will build across the central Appalachians providing for mainly dry weather mid week, and much warmer temperatures. Monday should be seasonably warm with 80s for most except some 70s in the higher elevations. An upper level trough will pivot over the region Monday night.
The axis of a stronger trough will be working through Georgia over the next day or two, ushering in a comparatively much drier airmass (PWATS of 2" before vs 1. For areas north of I-20 that have already experienced the airmass change, that translates to dry, mostly sunny, relatively pleasant conditions for the remainder of the day -- with dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60s and highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Decreased convective activity/clearer skies will contribute to a warming trend of a degree or two each day, and highs tomorrow look to be in the lower-90s.
851 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Weak high pressure will give way to a weak southerly flow of slightly more humid air for Monday. Significant height rises aloft and a low amplitude upper level ridge will likely develop over the region later in the upcoming week.
Lows tonight will mostly be in the lower 70s. The axis of an upper level trough will remain just west of the forecast area Monday. Overnight lows in the low 70s. The upper trough axis lifts out of the region heading into midweek with drier air pushing in from the west, limiting atmospheric moisture and rain chances.
500 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Above-normal temperatures will continue through the week as high pressure persists across the southwestern US. This will keep strong ridging across the area for the most part, though with enough moisture and divergence aloft for daily convection chances. That said, clouds across central portions of the area have kept temperatures cooler than earlier forecast, so will likely adjust highs down for some locations for this afternoon. Similar conditions are expected on Monday, though compression of the ridge will bring slightly more widespread rain chances. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through the week as ridging keeps warm temperatures and daily convection chances across the area. Humidity will bottom out in the low 20s to mid teens for most locations, with temperatures generally peaking in the 90s.
Monday night should prove to be mainly quiet as weak mid level ridging builds into the area.
Early afternoon temperatures are running some 3 to 8 degrees above 24 hours ago, except at Rawlins where they are 5 degrees cooler than yesterday due to extensive mid and high cloud shield. With a warmer airmass, expect overnight lows to be slightly warmer as well. Even warmer temperatures are expected as the ridge aloft moves slowly east from the Four Corners to south central Colorado, with 500 mb heights rising again 30 meters, and 700 mb temperatures peaking near 19 Celsius. This will translate to maximum temperatures in the lower 90s west of I-25, with mid 90s to near 103 degrees to the east. Mild overnight low temperatures will continue with the warmer than normal airmass.
819 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Weak high pressure will give way to a weak southerly flow of slightly more humid air for Monday. Significant height rises aloft and a low amplitude upper level ridge will likely develop over the region later in the upcoming week.
This will continue until the ridge axis can restrengthen overnight allowing for a return to the east and southeast. From synopsis, high pressure over the Florida Keys and South Florida will promote light to gentle breezes and nil rain chances through Monday.
933 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 The rain showers have ended with only a few sprinkles dotting a few inland locations as the cold front lays just NW of the area and the forecast remains on track. Mostly cloudy skies and light southwest winds will prevail overnight with lows into the low 70s over inland SE GA, mid 70s over NE FL and the mid/upper 70s over the coast.
The upper level ridge situated to our west will be moving towards our region and increasing our temperatures. Our nice northerly winds behind the cold front yesterday have shifted to a more easterly wind before shifting south tomorrow. This will allow warmer and more moist air to come into the area, increasing our high and low temperatures by a few degrees tomorrow.
634 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 (This evening through Monday Night) High pressure will make for another mid summer night's dream as the promised break from the excessive heat of late lingers into the new work week. Air temperatures are currently rising into the lower 90s for much of the area and will top out in the next couple of hours. This fresh Canadian high pressure will slide to the south and east over the next day or so and the warming trend will continue into midweek, getting us right back to hot with well above average readings.
No significant changes were made in this evening update, and look for overnight lows to refreshingly drop to the low to mid 60s.
946 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Weak low pressure will lift across the area tonight, with a front remaining stalled near the area through early week. High pressure establishes itself over the region by mid to late week. Should be near or a few deg cooler than climo with widespread cloud cover early, becoming more broken during the afternoon.
330 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Key Messages: 1) Low confidence PoP forecast but trending drier for today with a chance of storms tonight, mainly across southern sections of the service area 2) Continued warming trend with temperatures a few degrees warmer It's a tranquil early morning with weak surface ridging over the area providing clear skies and near calm winds. Highs today should be a few degrees warmer with 1-2C of warming at 925 hPa to around 24C.
Wildfire smoke from Canada has been drifting into the CWA as a weak cold front has been sagging southward. Latest 18z surface analysis from WPC placed this cold front around the Iron Range in MN, which is consistent with recent visible satellite imagery. Despite the weak forcing from the cold front, small hail and gusty winds will be possible around the Iron Range into the Arrowhead late this afternoon and evening. In addition to the storms, wildfire smoke will continue to be a concern today into Monday as mixing occurs following the cold front. Other than the severe storm potential tomorrow, the main focus over the next few days will be the increasing temperatures as a ridge builds over the Upper Midwest.
The other common denominator between both soundings was the prevalent dry airmass in the lower levels. Elsewhere across the forecast area has seen dry and hot conditions with several lower desert valleys having reached the low triple digits. Monday will see the center of the ridge of high pressure shift east, with its axis weakening by Monday night as the next upper level trough begins to nudge inland across the Pacific Northwest. As a result, subtropical moisture will wrap around the high, trickling into the Western Slope throughout the day. 6 inches across the lower desert valleys.
1218 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (This evening through Monday) A 597 dam upper level high, positioned over the Four Corners, will continue to support northerly flow aloft for West Texas. With height increases expected across the CWA given the eastward shift in the center of the high, warmer temperatures are expected this afternoon into overnight. Lows are projected to be slightly warmer than previous nights in the low to mid 70s.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Upper level ridge hanging over the Four Corners begins moving eastward today. Thus, have issued a Heat Advisory for the higher elevations as well as the Big Bend along the Rio Grande as temperatures there will hit or top 110F. With the ridge axis closer, comes more subsidence (large scale sinking air) and generally drier conditions. Lows on Tuesday morning will be a bit above normal in the mid to upper 70s for most with the higher elevations cooling into the 60s. Tuesday sees more of the same as Monday, mainly dry with temperatures maybe another degree or two warmer.
331 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Short Term/Marine - A Few Showers and Thunderstorms Again Today into Tuesday Upper troughing continues today but we will not have as robust of a 500 mb wave moving through the region. The high res CAMs are not bullish on precipitation coverage and intensity today, and as such the HREF probability matched mean QPF values for 3/6/24 hrs are very low.
Forecast thoughts: A pair of mature upper level low pressure systems remain in place over eastern Canada and just off the western shore of Canada. An elongated trough slowly tracking over the Appalachians and eastern Great Lakes region. A heat dome continues to build over the Desert Southwest with ridge axis now into central Canada. The main hazard for Tuesday and the rest of the week looks to be heat related with the western ridge building and broadening into the region.
Mid level heights rise across the region beginning today and will continue doing so into Tuesday, as the ridge aloft expands east over the region. The hi-res EC and some runs of the HRRR suggest there is low potential for storms that are expected to develop later this morning over the mid-Missouri river valley to track south down the eastern periphery of the expanding ridge aloft.
A very strong upper-level ridge was centered near the Four-Corners area this afternoon with upper-level troughing noted over eastern North America. Over the next couple of days, the upper pattern will change little as the upper ridge slowly moves east. This will also lead to temperatures, especially over north central to northeastern MO, being relatively cooler. If precipitation is bit further west, temperatures will be cooler. By midweek and into the later portion of the week, the upper ridge will have expanded across much of the southwestern two-thirds of the US. The center of the ridge will remain to our southwest, sparing us the absolutely brutal heat, but this will very likely lead to highs near 100 or several degrees above 100 by late week. We'll also see greater thickness values as the thermal ridge expands across KS and into MO.
(Today and tonight) We should see a hotter day today, as the core of a very strong upper level ridge moves from the Four Corners region into northern New Mexico (with the core strengthening to 600 dm) while the thermal ridge strengthens as well (850 mb temperatures 1-2 deg C higher than yesterday). Strong subsidence from the upper ridge, in combination with dry air in the afternoon, should result in a dry day, with precipitation chances less than 5 percent.
Otherwise, a hotter day is on tap today as heights rise aloft thanks to the large H5 ridge over the southwest CONUS building eastward. Tuesday looks even hotter as the upper ridge continues to build eastward and height aloft rise further, and the influence of the H5 ridge should also shut off any precip chances. Despite the heat, dewpoints will remain on the lower side for July with mid 60s to around 70 expected, so heat index values should stay near or below the 100 degree mark.
200 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 07z surface analysis had low near KPIR with warm front into eastern NE and trough into central MT. Modest low level jet supporting severe storms near warm front, east of the CWA. Water vapour loop had upper ridge centered over the four corners area with monsoonal moisture wrapping around it into the northern Plains. Several disturbances rotating around ridge and these will be the main forecast concerns as well as heat headlines. Today/tonight, upper/thermal ridge in place over the northern Plains as a disturbance rotates across northwest WY into the CWA tonight. Rich boundary moisture pools along trough creating strong buoyancy (3KJkg+ MLCAPE) with 30-40kt 0-6km bulk shear in place. Conditional supercell threat along trough, quickly exiting the CWA early in the evening.
247 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Weak low pressure will lift across the area tonight, with a front remaining stalled near the area through early week. High pressure establishes itself over the region by mid to late week. Should be near or a few deg cooler than climo with widespread cloud cover early, becoming more broken during the afternoon.
(Today and tonight) The upper high will continue to push eastward today into New Mexico with increasing heights over the forecast area. A weak lee trough will develop with south southwesterly surface winds across the South Plains and Rolling Plains today. Increasing subsidence aloft paired with downsloping surface winds will allow for mixing of the warmer temperatures aloft and temperatures returning to the triple digits this afternoon. Thus PoPs have been kept below mentionable given this low probability. Tonight, the southerly surface winds will stay breezy as the low level jet increases overnight.
(Today through Tuesday Night ) H500 ridging to the west will remain the dominant feature through the period and as it begins to expand eastward, hotter temperatures are expected across the area. In the meantime, while it remains anchored over the Four Corners and troughing persists to the east, N/NW flow aloft will remain over the region.
The region sits just west of the axis of broad troughing that covers most of the midwest this afternoon. Temps should climb into the lower 90s. A strong upper level ridge begins to establish over the four corners region on Tuesday and increased return flow at the surface should wash out the residual boundary. Dewpoints will work back into the low 70s which MAY spark a shower or two in the afternoon again but think the large scale subsidence will be too much to overcome and left the forecast dry. Through the longer term period the upper ridge to our west strengthens and begins expanding in size.
Residual moisture will still have some impact in the highs, especially across central into eastern parts of the state. However as we go forward with no additional rainfall, expect these warmer readings to make their way into central OKlahoma.
Forecast lows seem like they're in good shape, but it's worth noting that the latest run or two of the HRRR show temperatures a few degrees warmer tonight than currently forecast. After a comfortable morning in the 60s, it will be a warmer day tomorrow as 500 MB high pressure begins to build in from the western U. , pushing our trough to the east.
1206 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) With mean upper ridging over the SWrn states and mean upper troughing over the Ern CONUS, steep NWrly flow will persist over AR thru much of the period. Otherwise, expecting settled weather with gradually increasing temps as the upper ridge builds towards the area thru midweek.
302 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Current satellite imagery clearly shows a strong monsoonal plume of moisture pushing its way into the intermountain west on the back side of a building high pressure ridge. Orientation of this ridge indicates less of a chance for showers and thunderstorms through much of the short term with most of the better instability and forcing being pushed to the north and east of the CWA. Considering most of the short term models are indicating some decent moisture transport at the SFC- 850mb level over the next few days, Tds could be a little warmer and by extension, so too would the heat indices.
1213 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing this afternoon in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River. High pressure over New Mexico starts sagging southeast and exerting a greater influence beginning tomorrow causing highs in many locations to increase back above 100 degrees.
(Today through Tuesday Night) SE Texas is expected to remain on the peripheral of a mid to upper level ridge, which should slowly drift eastward through the Four Corners region over the next few days.
305 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Strengthening Bermuda high pressure will lead to drier and hotter conditions for the next several days. Mid-level trough axis will remain west of the area through tonight, continuing deep southwest flow. Inland areas will again run a little warmer than the coast, a combination of the sea breeze and less storm coverage. At the surface not really much of a pattern to speak of but high pressure will suffice for now as a description.
Weak ridging remains across the area, with a ridge axis still extending across the Northern Bahamas. Beginning tonight, the subtropical ridge will start to build northward.