Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
On the synoptic scale, troughing across the eastern US and large broad ridge across the western US continue to promote northwest flow across central US for the next few days. This low level jet will be highly efficient in transporting warm air and moisture northward, leading to rapid destabilization of the atmosphere. Sufficient mass convergence is expected on the leading edge of the low level jet to result in additional thunderstorm development tonight towards 06Z. Have not deviated from the NBM in the extended given the active short term, but thermal ridge across the west attempts to expand north and east but is largely prevented from expanding north by additional ridge riders moving from west to east.
Largely dry and turning warmer to start the work week (after early morning storms exit) 2.
(This afternoon through Monday Night) A long wave trough with some embed short waves remains set up over the eastern half of the US. This trough will slowly lift and push east early this week. We are seeing a very nice afternoon with some scattered clouds and with good mixing dew points have fallen into the low to mid 60s. Overall we will see quiet conditions again tomorrow as the trough starts to lift out of here. Confidence is on the low side for seeing this as forcing remains weak and soundings don't look overly favorable with poor lapse rates and dry mid-levels. Highs today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and we will add another few degrees on Monday.
Looks to be a rain free day and evening across the area as high pressure builds across the north.
The boundary is becoming increasingly difficult to find on the early afternoon observations, but as southerly flow in the low-levels slowly returns, the boundary is expected to continue to loose definition while slowly drifting northward. Some marginally severe hail may also be possible, but will tough to get severe sized hail to the surface given high freezing levels. Another warm night is anticipated with lows in the lower 70s to near 80 degrees.
An area of convection across eastern Nebraska will make its way to the southeastern in the northwesterly upper level flow on the eastern periphery of the ridge over the plains. The upper ridge will continue to shift east today and will bring with it increasing temperatures. Overnight temperatures will only cool into the lower to middle 70s. The upper ridge shifts east.
326 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Upper ridging continues to build east today with temperatures climbing into the 90s over much of the area. Temperatures will climb into the low 100s across south central SD on Tuesday. However, there are some caveats in regards to cloud cover and/or ongoing morning showers that could keep highs a degree or two cooler. Tuesdays ridge rider moves east at the start of the period, though there may still be some moisture lingering in the mid levels after 00Z so cant rule out high based showers with ceilings around 600mb or just below the freezing level, with a deep dry subcloud layer and skinny CAPE/strong shear above.
With the intense heating and slightly higher than normal dewpoints as well as the lift from the low, there is a slight chance we could get a shower or storm pop, and this would be mainly around the Dalhart area. Overall given the high amounts of DCAPE in the west today, if a storm pops a strong to severe wind gust can't be ruled out, the probability of a storm is just very low, and therefore we're not outlooked for anything severe. The ridge will strengthen even further on Tuesday and high temperatures will either match or exceed today's highs in some areas.
A little instability in the presence of a decaying cold front is causing a few thunderstorms out there this morning.
The lower dewpoints in the mid 60s mainly north of U. Temperatures in the lower to mid 90s with maximum heat index values in the 100-105 range across the I-10 corridor and south, and in the 90s further north. Dewpoints will average in the lower 60s across Central Louisiana, mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s across Central and Southern Louisiana, mid to upper 90s across Southeast Texas. However, the lower dewpoints will only allow the heat index to reach the 95-102 range. Afternoon highs Tuesday in the lower to mid 90s across Central and Southern Louisiana, mid to upper 90s across Southeast Texas.
/Issued 1258 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023/ /Monday and Tuesday/ After a couple days of near seasonal temperatures, above normal heat returns to the region as a mid and upper level high builds over the Southcentral CONUS. Increased moisture across East Texas and the Brazos Valley will limit mixing and keep highs in the low to mid 90s while the I-35 corridor falls between these two.
Potential for isolated but potentially strong storms to be the short term forecast challenge into this evening as a weak frontal trough descends southward into central Missouri. The other big story is the rising heights as the upper ridge extending up the Rockies begins to build eastward into the Ozarks. Temperatures this afternoon will top out 3-5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Models continue to depict the amplified upper ridge to be flattened by waves of energy moving across southern Canada. leaving the forecast area on the northeastern periphery of the ridge through at least this coming weekend.
Hot weather continues with slight chances for showers and thundestorms the next couple of days as our forecast area remains on the southeastern perifery of the upper ridge. Given the slight weakness in the ridge aloft and increased moisture, expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along the sea breeze this afternoon, spreading inland across the brush country by late afternoon.
326 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 High pressure looks to be dominant over the region must of this week. A cold front then looks to move southeast through the area later this week. With the initial area of high pressure east of our region warm and moist air will continue to advect in. With the increasing moisture, lows look several degrees warmer tonight in the low to mid 60's.
We're still in northwest flow aloft with the main trof axis still just to our east and upper level ridging over the southwest CONUS which is starting to move over the Plains. Even with cloud cover highs should still make it into the lower 90s with continued southwest flow at the sfc and dew points climbing back up into the 70s. Tomorrow will be similar with highs in the lower 90s and a mid level perturbation sliding through that could spur a few afternoon storms.
The troughing axis to our west will be lifting towards us, and as this occurs, 500 hpa heights will be rising through the day. Given the lack of surface convergence, rising heights, and progressing trough axis, there is little in the way of lift to actually force a lot of convection.
(Today) The TN Valley will remain in between the departing upper level trough extending down from Hudson Bay and the ridge that's been anchored across the Southwest.
The rain showers have ended with only a few sprinkles dotting a few inland locations as the cold front lays just NW of the area and the forecast remains on track. Mostly cloudy skies and light southwest winds will prevail overnight with lows into the low 70s over inland SE GA, mid 70s over NE FL and the mid/upper 70s over the coast.
/15/ Tonight and Monday: Longwave trough axis is progged to remain stalled across the region through Monday. This is in response to amplified upper ridge over the Four Corners & strengthening subtropical Atlantic ridge. With subtle WAA in the low-levels, expect highs to moderate closer to seasonable values in the low-mid 90s & heat indices peak near mid 90s.
Warm temperatures return for Monday with highs topping out in the lower to middle 90's. Likewise have lowered afternoon dewpoints by several degrees to account for afternoon mixing, particularly considering the high bias the NBM has exhibited with dewpoints recently in similar mid to upper level patterns. Perhaps a pleasant change of pace will be heat indices remaining low in the lower to middle 90's thanks to the much drier air working into the area and lower afternoon dewpoints.
616 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper high will continue to push eastward today into New Mexico with increasing heights over the forecast area. A weak lee trough will develop with south southwesterly surface winds across the South Plains and Rolling Plains today. Increasing subsidence aloft paired with downsloping surface winds will allow for mixing of the warmer temperatures aloft and temperatures returning to the triple digits this afternoon. Thus PoPs have been kept below mentionable given this low probability. Tonight, the southerly surface winds will stay breezy as the low level jet increases overnight.
A deep trough aloft will continue to push high pressure east, resulting in gradual cooling today. Near average highs will return today with interior valleys in the low 90s. NBM is even hinting that particularly weak onshore wind today and tomorrow (partially thanks to a very weak center of low pressure zooming up the coast) may even allow for some near coastal temperatures just below 70 assuming that the normal sea breeze can be sufficiently delayed. Alongside cooler air, the trough will bring instability aloft midweek. The front will lift out to the NE and dissipate on Tuesday with high pressure gradually rebuilding offshore through the day on Tuesday.
653 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 High pressure looks to be dominant over the region must of this week. A cold front then looks to move southeast through the area later this week. With the initial area of high pressure east of our region warm and moist air will continue to advect in. With the increasing moisture, lows look several degrees warmer tonight in the low to mid 60's.
After a brief lull this evening, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop later this evening and overnight over the northern CWA and move southeast on the nose of the low level jet. Highs today will be in the low 90s even with the scattered storms around as 850mb temperatures climb to around 20C.
The upper level ridge of high pressure which has brought the recent heat-wave across western Montana and north central Idaho will begin to break down today.
High pressure moves eastward and a trof enters Humboldt county today. Today and Tuesday The Desert Southwest high pressure will migrate eastward today as a trof moves into northwestern Humboldt county. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than previous days today ranging from the lower to middle- 90s. As the trof moves into northwestern Nevada, southwest wind flow will bring sustained winds ranging from 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 45 mph today and relative humidity levels as low as 5 percent to Humboldt county today. Dry conditions elsewhere in Central and Northern Nevada with highs again in the lower to middle 90s.
449 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 07z surface analysis had low near KPIR with warm front into eastern NE and trough into central MT. Modest low level jet supporting severe storms near warm front, east of the CWA. Water vapour loop had upper ridge centered over the four corners area with monsoonal moisture wrapping around it into the northern Plains. Several disturbances rotating around ridge and these will be the main forecast concerns as well as heat headlines. Today/tonight, upper/thermal ridge in place over the northern Plains as a disturbance rotates across northwest WY into the CWA tonight. Rich boundary moisture pools along trough creating strong buoyancy (3KJkg+ MLCAPE) with 30-40kt 0-6km bulk shear in place. Conditional supercell threat along trough, quickly exiting the CWA early in the evening.
An isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible north of Interstate 40 this afternoon, assoicated with a weak upper level disturbance moving from the central plains to the lower Ohio River Valley. Otherwise, the Midsouth will remain free of thunderstorms over the next several days, as high pressure builds aloft.
Dry air in the lower levels could lead to briefly gusty winds underneath any storms that do develop. Going into the evening hours, models that indicate a more northern track for convective activity in Iowa and Missouri also indicate a potential for additional shower and storm development in southwestern Wisconsin along a mesoscale forced low level trough.
Along I-10 and northward, dewpoints have fallen into the 60s this morning leading to slightly cooler morning than what has been observed over the past couple months.
434 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 High pressure is centered over the Colorado/New Mexico state line. Due to the proximity to the high temperatures will again be near record across the area. Gusts of 40-50 mph are possible especially given the high cloud bases and warm temperatures. Tomorrow the high drifts to the southeast over eastern New Mexico. Also, we may introduce a higher potential for a wetting rains in the higher elevations.
729 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Aviation - A Few Showers and Thunderstorms Again Today into Tuesday Upper troughing continues today but we will not have as robust of a 500 mb wave moving through the region. The high res CAMs are not bullish on precipitation coverage and intensity today, and as such the HREF probability matched mean QPF values for 3/6/24 hrs are very low.
438 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Upper level trough will dig along the West Coast into Monday and remain in place through the work week. Expect cooler conditions today and further cooling in the mid to late week.
644 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Strengthening Bermuda high pressure will lead to drier and hotter conditions for the next several days. Mid-level trough axis will remain west of the area through tonight, continuing deep southwest flow. Inland areas will again run a little warmer than the coast, a combination of the sea breeze and less storm coverage. At the surface not really much of a pattern to speak of but high pressure will suffice for now as a description.
Temperatures will remain hot as well, with highs in the 90s across the lower elevations East of the Divide.
High pressure will continue to bring hot conditions to Arizona through much of the week. High pressure is center near the Four Corners this morning. Storm coverage looks to increase again across far eastern Arizona again on Tuesday as the center of the high migrates eastward.
(Today through Tuesday) Main Forecast Points: - Isolated showers and storms possible across Southeast GA and Northeast GA mtns - Drier conditions and clearing skies will contribute to warmer temperatures Currently. The forecast area is currently situated within the base of deep upper level trough with the axis just to our west. Upper troughing is forecast to continue trudging east today as strong upper ridging becomes more amplified across the Desert Southwest. Though another warm day is anticipated with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, we will feel some relief in the way of lower dewpoints with values in the low 60s as a result of the drier air mixing to the surface. High pressure centered more across the TN Valley Region will give way to dry and warm conditions across North and Central GA tomorrow.
607 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night ) H500 ridging to the west will remain the dominant feature through the period and as it begins to expand eastward, hotter temperatures are expected across the area. In the meantime, while it remains anchored over the Four Corners and troughing persists to the east, N/NW flow aloft will remain over the region.
649 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 An isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible north of Interstate 40 this afternoon, assoicated with a weak upper level disturbance moving from the central plains to the lower Ohio River Valley. Otherwise, the Midsouth will remain free of thunderstorms over the next several days, as high pressure builds aloft.
556 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Upper level ridge hanging over the Four Corners begins moving eastward today. Thus, have issued a Heat Advisory for the higher elevations as well as the Big Bend along the Rio Grande as temperatures there will hit or top 110F. With the ridge axis closer, comes more subsidence (large scale sinking air) and generally drier conditions. Lows on Tuesday morning will be a bit above normal in the mid to upper 70s for most with the higher elevations cooling into the 60s. Tuesday sees more of the same as Monday, mainly dry with temperatures maybe another degree or two warmer.
622 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Upper ridging continues to build east today with temperatures climbing into the 90s over much of the area. Temperatures will climb into the low 100s across south central SD on Tuesday. However, there are some caveats in regards to cloud cover and/or ongoing morning showers that could keep highs a degree or two cooler. Tuesdays ridge rider moves east at the start of the period, though there may still be some moisture lingering in the mid levels after 00Z so cant rule out high based showers with ceilings around 600mb or just below the freezing level, with a deep dry subcloud layer and skinny CAPE/strong shear above.
515 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Upper level high centered near the Four Corners will slowly move southeast today and be over New Mexico tonight. Satellite showing a substantial amount of mid and high clouds rotating around the west and north side of the high. Models have a strong upper ridge centered over northern New Mexico Tuesday.
340 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Upper level high centered near the Four Corners will slowly move southeast today and be over New Mexico tonight. Satellite showing a substantial amount of mid and high clouds rotating around the west and north side of the high. Models have a strong upper ridge centered over northern New Mexico Tuesday.
230 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Cooler this week with near to slightly below seasonal normal temperatures. A trough of low pressure will move from the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest today. Temperatures this morning are generally running 5 to 10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. The low will move northeast for Tuesday allowing for some strengthening of the ridge over California and slightly warmer temperatures.
On the surface, high pressure across the SE CONUS will promote south flow locally.
414 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Today and Tonight: An upper level trough will continue to be stalled across the region today keeping some low end rain chances mainly along the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile inland, conditions will be relatively quiet as drier and cooler air thanks to this longwave trough will keep our PWAT values around 1 inch areawide. Temperatures will be around average summer values with highs in the low 90s this afternoon. Low relative humidity (around 15%) and dew points in the low 60s will help suppress our heat indices today. Low temperatures will range from the high 60s to low 70s.
611 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night) SE Texas is expected to remain on the peripheral of a mid to upper level ridge, which should slowly drift eastward through the Four Corners region over the next few days.
633 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Today and Tonight: An upper level trough will continue to be stalled across the region today keeping some low end rain chances mainly along the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile inland, conditions will be relatively quiet as drier and cooler air thanks to this longwave trough will keep our PWAT values around 1 inch areawide. Temperatures will be around average summer values with highs in the low 90s this afternoon. Low relative humidity (around 15%) and dew points in the low 60s will help suppress our heat indices today. Low temperatures will range from the high 60s to low 70s.
625 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (Today and tonight) We should see a hotter day today, as the core of a very strong upper level ridge moves from the Four Corners region into northern New Mexico (with the core strengthening to 600 dm) while the thermal ridge strengthens as well (850 mb temperatures 1-2 deg C higher than yesterday). Strong subsidence from the upper ridge, in combination with dry air in the afternoon, should result in a dry day, with precipitation chances less than 5 percent.
Mean layer ridging remains centered over the Southwest US and the central North Atlantic. Lower heights over the eastern US and an upper low pressing northwest across Cuba bisect the mean layer ridge. Despite the weakness aloft, the regional RAOBs indicate the 700 mb ridge remains robust and extends west across the Bahamas to near the Yucatan. High pressure over the Florida Keys and South Florida will promote light to gentle breezes and nil rain chances through this afternoon.
Near 100 degree temps, here to stay for the next couple days as upper level ridging continues to have a hold on the region. Looking at the low temperatures expected tonight, poor temperature recovery is expected as some places may not even get below 70 degrees overnight.
Temperatures early this morning were in the 50s north and in the lower to middle 60s south. 500mb ridge across the southwest United States has left the western Great Lakes region in a messy northwest flow pattern. Wet bulb zero heights are around 10,000 feet with a well pronounced inverted V structure in the lowest level of the atmosphere. With the higher CAPE and shear values, a few of the storms this afternoon into this evening could become severe. Daytime heating on Tuesday will bring another chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday, with the highest chances across the north. Used CONSALL for max temperatures for Monday and Tuesday while only making minor adjustments to the low temperature tonight.
558 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (Today) The TN Valley will remain in between the departing upper level trough extending down from Hudson Bay and the ridge that's been anchored across the Southwest.
501 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 High pressure is centered over the Colorado/New Mexico state line. Due to the proximity to the high temperatures will again be near record across the area. Gusts of 40-50 mph are possible especially given the high cloud bases and warm temperatures. Tomorrow the high drifts to the southeast over eastern New Mexico. Also, we may introduce a higher potential for a wetting rains in the higher elevations.
(Today through Tuesday) The persistent mid-level ridge of high pressure parked across New Mexico builds into this final full week of July, but not before another round or two of seabreeze convection. Drier air arrives Tuesday as the ridge gradually builds, with less seabreeze showers and thunderstorms and warmer highs.
636 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Current satellite imagery clearly shows a strong monsoonal plume of moisture pushing its way into the intermountain west on the back side of a building high pressure ridge. Orientation of this ridge indicates less of a chance for showers and thunderstorms through much of the short term with most of the better instability and forcing being pushed to the north and east of the CWA. Considering most of the short term models are indicating some decent moisture transport at the SFC- 850mb level over the next few days, Tds could be a little warmer and by extension, so too would the heat indices.
Entrenched monsoon moisture and strong high pressure to our east will favor afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity today and Tuesday.
Looking at SST(water temps) they are a scalding 88 to 90F in and around the tidal lakes and sounds and could be much warmer in shallower marsh waters.
High pressure will then prevail through late week. Near term guidance indicates that the axis of longwave trough will approach from west today, passing over the region tonight.
Upper level trough will dig along the West Coast into Monday and remain in place through the work week. Expect cooler conditions today and further cooling in the mid to late week.