Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
334 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Zonal flow aloft will turn slightly NW on Tuesday as a broad trough digs over the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure will shift offshore from the Mid Atlantic region into the western Atlantic.
246 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 Dry high pressure will cover the region through this evening. Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley late tonight, bringing a cold front through the area early Tuesday morning followed by gusty winds.
1018 PM MST Sun Mar 5 2023 Water vapor shows large upper low/trof over the Pac NW, with next ejecting short wave moving through WY. At the surface, broad low covers the Central Rockies front range with inverted trof extending into the far western Dakotas. Brief lull in the precip expected Monday with transient short wave ridge moving overhead, but a stronger negatively tilted short wave will slowly lift through from late in the afternoon through Tuesday. With broad isentropic lift in place, especially over western SD in closer proximity to the inverted surface trof.
Models remain highly inconsistent on whether the upper trough/low will stay along the coast late this week or come inland. A passing trough will keep a chance for showers over the region through this evening. The area will remain under a broad trough Monday and Tuesday with the main circulation anchored off the Pac NW coast. With the low pressure remaining positioned offshore, winds will remain easterly through the period.
117 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 A cold front will approach from the west on today and cross the area this evening brining clouds and a chance of a shower. High pressure will then build in through midweek offering a period of dry weather. Will range lows from the lower 30s east to the lower 40s west.
339 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 Relatively warm weather is expected today before rain returns with a crossing trough tonight. Dry, cooler, and more seasonable weather is then expected through the remainder of the week. Rain is again expected with approaching low pressure this weekend. A dusting to around half an inch of snow is possible north of I-80 and in the higher elevations of the Laurels. Building high pressure and dry advection behind the cold front should aid in clearing skies through the early afternoon. With a cooler, drier air mass in place, more seasonable high temperatures are expected.
Another system may near the area later in the week with gusty winds and cooler temperatures. This is in response to weakening pressure gradients as a trough begins to lift northward and away from the region. Used a blend of the previous forecast with the most recent MOS guidance to nudge those temperatures a few degrees warmer to take into account the breezy winds and mid to high-level cloud cover.
1242 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 Dry high pressure will cover the region through Monday. Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley on Monday, bringing a cold front through the area Tuesday morning followed by gusty winds.
1250 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 Dry high pressure to provide fair weather through today. Expect overnight lows to range from the lower 40s north to upper 40s in the CSRA. High pressure center drifts offshore Monday morning and a weak coastal low forms just off the Georgia shoreline. Upper ridge to our west will amplify and downslope flow will keep temperatures well above average for this time of year despite the cooler airmass.
303 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 Dry high pressure will continue across the area today.
Model soundings indicate moisture should be limited to the lowest 2000 ft, so drizzle is unlikely and it has not been mentioned in the forecast, but patchy light drizzle is not entirely out of the question later this morning. The subtropical ridge will strengthen today over the southern GoMex. Low temps will range from 58-66, with highs Tuesday similar to those for today if not a degree or two warmer in some locations.
1044 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2023 (This evening through Monday night) A cold front is expected to slip south into the Panhandles late tonight.
320 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 A cold front will approach from the west today and cross the area late in the day into this evening bringing clouds and a chance of a shower. High pressure will then build in through midweek offering a period of dry weather. Temperatures will warm to highs around 20 degrees above normal, ranging from the lower 60s far north to the lower 70s south. Clouds look to hold on overnight with lows from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south. Temperatures look to be closer to normal, ranging from the mid 40s north to the lower/mid 50s south.
Diffuse frontal boundary remains draped across the peninsula this morning with residual moisture while high pressure over the E U. ridges south into the panhandle.
318 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 A cold front will approach from the west on today and cross the area this evening bringing clouds and a chance of a shower. High pressure will then build in through midweek offering a period of dry weather. Temperatures will warm to highs around 20 degrees above normal, ranging from the lower 60s far north to the lower 70s south. Clouds look to hold on overnight with lows from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south. Temperatures look to be closer to normal, ranging from the mid 40s north to the lower/mid 50s south.
Cooler than normal temperatures are anticipated generally from the Red River Valley westward, with near normal temperatures east of the valley. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement on the presence of a midlevel trough traversing the northern Plains beginning late Tuesday. Snowfall rates will be fighting dry air entrainment from the departing 1040+mb high pressure.
This system will drag a weak cold front through the area tonight. Highs on Tuesday will be cooler thanks to the fropa with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today.
(Today and tonight) For today and tonight, an upper trough will be over the northwestern CONUS into the northern Rockies, while a subtle, broad upper ridge develops over the Gulf Coast. With breakup of the low cloud cover toward midday, skies will be mostly sunny over our area this afternoon with patchy high cloud coverage. Temperatures will be warm and well-above normal again this afternoon, with highs expected to be in the lower to mid 80s.
High pressure will be northeast of the region, with an inverted trough over area waters Tonight.
RH values are currently in the low to upper 20s for most areas. Tomorrow, high pressure shifts east and we see a return flow out of the southwest.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is strengthening in eastern Colorado. Despite a strong zonal flow aloft prevailing across the region, tranquil conditions will persist during the period as an already drier air mass in the lower/mid levels is reinforced by cold/dry air spreading into western Kansas in wake of a cold front pushing through western Kansas late tonight. The lower 40s(F) are still possible in south central Kansas. Look for highs only up into the 50s(F) Monday afternoon across west central and central Kansas with the lower 60s(F) possible farther south along the Oklahoma border. Relatively drier conditions are expected early in the period Tuesday as weak ridging aloft drifts east through the Central Plains.
259 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 A cold front will move through the region this morning with cooler air setting in across central Kansas while well above normal highs in the 70s will continue across southeast Kansas today.
318 AM MST Mon Mar 6 2023 Northerly winds are now present across the area, following cold front passage yesterday evening. Low temperatures this morning are expected to fall into the low 20s to low 30s. As mentioned in previous discussion, forecast soundings continue to indicate the potential for freezing drizzle with dry mid-levels, saturated low-levels, and a warm nose present Monday night-Tuesday morning over eastern Colorado.
Overnight, mild temperatures ranging from the lower 60s to about 70 degrees can be expected.
High pressure over the southeast U. A cold front will move through the region tonight and early Tuesday. Cooler air will star to move into northern sections of the Mid-South on Tuesday bringing temperatures back to near normal.
A longwave positive tilt trough was located over the western states this morning, shifted further north than we have seen in recent weeks.
Temperatures tonight will once again be above normal in the lower 40s across the Caprock and far southeast Texas Panhandle with even more mild temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the Rolling Plains.
Temperatures will remain below average through midweek, but with an upward trend as the cold trough over the Pacific Northwest slowly retreats, and some milder, Pacific air works across the State.
(Today through Tuesday) High pressure slides over to the east today and will result in easterly flow. This easterly flow will in turn develop an inverted trough over the area. This inverted trough will increase the southerly flow and bring in gulf moisture across the southwest. Effectively this flow will result in a "warm front" boundary lifting north overnight and into the day Tuesday. At the same time a cold front will be sliding southward and will begin to force the moisture back to the south by late Tuesday afternoon.
541 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 (Now through Tuesday) Quasi-zonal flow aloft will persist in the short-term period as mid-level ridging -- centered over the southwest Gulf of Mexico -- noses over Southern Texas. At the surface, high pressure will remain anchored across the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico, helping to provide persistent southeasterly winds. High temperatures today will warm up into the upper 80s and lower 90s, a few degrees cooler along the coast. Similar high temperatures can be expected Tuesday afternoon, perhaps a degree or two warmer.
528 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure slides over to the east today and will result in easterly flow. This easterly flow will in turn develop an inverted trough over the area. This inverted trough will increase the southerly flow and bring in gulf moisture across the southwest. Effectively this flow will result in a "warm front" boundary lifting north overnight and into the day Tuesday. At the same time a cold front will be sliding southward and will begin to force the moisture back to the south by late Tuesday afternoon.
Surface observational analysis would place this system's center over south central Iowa with the associated surface warm front pushing northwards towards the Illinois/Wisconsin border. Tuesday through the weekend: Behind the departing system things look to be a bit more quiet on Tuesday as upper level ridging builds across the region. As the ridge continues to slide east Tuesday night, models show broad warm advection across the region with potential for rain/snow chances again entering the forecast midweek. Towards the end of the week, there has been better agreement in models showing a progressive upper level trough getting pushed eastward into the region.
539 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 Dry high pressure will cover the region through this evening. Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley late tonight, bringing a cold front through the area early Tuesday morning followed by gusty winds.
Temperatures warming above freezing will turn uncleared roads to slush. Temperatures remain in the low 30s this morning and will rise above freezing within the first few hours of daylight, turning whatever is left on roadways and parking lots to slush resulting in continued impacts to travel and the morning commute. The current Advisory will be maintained due to the continued travel impacts as any light drizzle this morning would potentially freeze before our temperatures warm up enough to prevent any kind of freezing. As this system departs the area, broad high pressure centered to our north will slide over the area for a couple days, resulting in marginally quiet weather for Tuesday ahead of what looks to be an active second half of the week.
416 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Latest surface analysis showed low pressure over eastern Kansas with a warm front extending northeast across northwestern Missouri into southeastern Iowa and northern Illinois. As it does, it will cause a cold front to move southeast across the CWA later this morning and this afternoon. Dry weather is expected to continue tonight into Tuesday morning as the NAM/GFS have a upper ridge building across Missouri and ILlinois.
A cold front dropped south across eastern Colorado last evening. East to southeast winds will prevail here along with cooler readings. The low level east/southeast flow will increase tonight and push cooler and more moist air into the area. Cross sections show the cloud layer could be thick enough for freezing drizzle and will keep this mentioned in the forecast. This will provide for a magnificently gorgeous day across the lower elevations (/s), with low clouds/fog, reduced visibility, and a chance for freezing drizzle/fog, particularly in the morning. It's unlikely we'll see any impactful accumulations given just how shallow that sub-freezing moist layer will be (up to 800-750 mb at most), although a very light glaze can't be completely ruled out in a spot or two.
This low will meander around off the coast for the next few days, pumping moisture into the forecast area and making for intermittent chances for precip through the midweek. The upslope enhancement that had previously been expected yesterday looks to have materialized along the east slopes thanks to the low ushering in easterly winds toward the WA Cascades, which have been not quite strong enough to eclipse the mountaintops. Confidence is on the lower end as to the exact QPF amounts within subsequent rounds of precip as a result of the synoptic setup, which will lead to very localized amounts of heavier precip at times, but the overall expectation is that this system will not produce widespread precipitation impacts through the midweek.
551 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 (Today and tonight) For today and tonight, an upper trough will be over the northwestern CONUS into the northern Rockies, while a subtle, broad upper ridge develops over the Gulf Coast. With breakup of the low cloud cover toward midday, skies will be mostly sunny over our area this afternoon with patchy high cloud coverage. Temperatures will be warm and well-above normal again this afternoon, with highs expected to be in the lower to mid 80s.
404 AM MST Mon Mar 6 2023 Northerly winds are now present across the area, following cold front passage yesterday evening. Low temperatures this morning are expected to fall into the low 20s to low 30s. As mentioned in previous discussion, forecast soundings continue to indicate the potential for freezing drizzle with dry mid-levels, saturated low-levels, and a warm nose present Monday night-Tuesday morning over eastern Colorado.
Key Messages: - Cooler, but right around normal for Monday and Tuesday.
644 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 Diffuse frontal boundary remains draped across the peninsula this morning with residual moisture while high pressure over the E U. ridges south into the panhandle.
551 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Today through tonight: a warmer and more humid weather pattern is in store for the forecast area as we go through early week. A subtropical ridge is rebuilding over the Gulf of Mexico, and this is supporting the increase in warm southerly low level flow over our region. The initial push of richer boundary layer moisture is leading to some dense fog formation in the lower Pine Belt region early this morning, and will need a dense fog advisory there based on obs trends until mid morning. Otherwise, for later today, there could be a few showers as we heat up mainly over southern portions of the area, but overall, the weather should be dry with readings topping out in the low/mid 80s along/south of the I-20 corridor.
Low level thermal trough persists into Tuesday but per Bufkit column dries out fairly quick later tonight into Tuesday morning which should make for a good deal of sunshine with northeast winds. The influence of the surface ridging should continue to exert a dry influence through Tuesday night.
Highs will be well above normal today and Tuesday, with highs a little warmer on Tuesday. Southerly low level flow will be slightly stronger tonight into Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases with a low pressure area over northwest Texas.
Expecting all of the lower elevations to be well into the lower digits, with the high mountain valleys all well below zero. The upper trough axis should be east of the CWA by 12Z Thursday morning. The low level winds become northwesterly after 06Z tonight, then even some normal drainage patterns by 12Z in many areas. With models continuing to show light snow over the CWA well into the evening hours, am reluctant to drop any of the highlights at this time. Thursday night, an upper level trough of low pressure will be over the Central Plains States with a large upper level ridge over the Intermountain West.
Radar observations across southwest KS indicate the winter storm that has been impacting our area is winding down, as the primary upper level trough continues to shift eastward. Additionally, the building high pressure, along with DNVA in the wake of the upper level trough, will begin to erode the overcast skies from west to east through the morning and early afternoon, and most areas will see some sunshine before sunset Thursday evening.
(Today and tonight) The mid/upper low that brought yesterday's wind has lifted northeastward to central Kansas, still embedded within a broader trough that extends from the desert Southwest to the northern Plains.
The temperature at the Kingman airport remained below freezing for 16 hours last night into this morning with another 14 hours expected for tonight. The cumulative effect of consecutive nights of sub-freezing temperatures raises the risk of impacts from prolonged freezing conditions. Through next Wednesday Our brisk north winds will continue to gradually diminish through the afternoon as trough slowly shifts east through the southern Rockies. Widespread freezing temperatures forecast, except for the lower Colorado River Valley and Death Valley where lows will bottom out in the mid 30s. Next trough approaching the PacNW coast tomorrow progged to split with southern stream energy pinching off into a cutoff low off the northwest CA coast.
The low over north Texas will be moving off to the northeast during the time period, dragging a cold front through our region later this afternoon and evening. Winds should gradually weaken on Thursday as the upper low and strong mid and upper level winds move out of our area. The wind shift and change in air masses will allow temperatures on Thursday to be significantly cooler than what we're seeing today, with more than a 30 degree drop in highs expected between today and tomorrow. Fire weather concerns will decrease behind the front as cooler air is ushered in and winds decrease slightly, but elevated conditions could still exist, primarily in our southwestern counties, due to continued dry air and breezy winds Thursday.
Upper level low swirls over the Four Corners region.
921 PM PST Wed Feb 15 2023 Cold nights and mornings continue, though slightly warmer each afternoon into the weekend.
Temperatures will moderate somewhat Thursday afternoon as stronger ridging moves in.
An upper low centered over southern Colorado will make its way northeast across Kansas and into Iowa will bring accumulating snowfall and gusty winds to the area.
626 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023 (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions prevail as high pressure remains in control. Those features will continue to shift eastward as a deepening trough located over the Central Plains continues to move across the U. In term of temperatures, daytime highs for today are forecast to be in the lower to mid 80s again across the region, and mid 70s in areas near the coast. Guidance continues to be in agreement that a cold front will approach the Florida Peninsula on Friday, but by that time, it will be well removed from much of the energy. In general, stable conditions will continue areawide along with another round of cooler and drier air to the Florida Peninsula.
103 AM PST Thu Feb 16 2023 Freezing temperatures will persist for the San Joaquin Valley until this morning, with some locations experiencing lows at or less than 27 degrees.
Cold air has quickly been pushing in overnight leading to most of the area already seeing below freezing surface temperatures. A majority of models indicate that there will be temperatures above freezing aloft through the overnight through central parts of the area, prior to the arrival of the cold air aloft. The issue is that surface temperatures have quickly fallen, leading to prolonged potential for mixed precipitation including freezing rain through the central part of the CWA. A temperature difference of just a degree could make the difference between seeing a change to snow or remaining rain, mixed perception, or freezing rain overnight. Despite the chilly start, temperatures will recover nicely on Friday as ridging settles in for the weekend. The rest of the TAF sites may see freezing rain transitioning to sleet, then snow by the morning.
Elsewhere, little if any pcpn has occurred as the low levels were quite dry and forcing was weak. Numerous thunderstorms were occuring from the MO Ozarks to KY and southward to the lower MS Vly and Deep South. This will create a mixed bag of freezing rain and sleet for several hours this morning then dynamic cooling quickly cools the column below freezing changing the mixed pcpn to all snow. Northwest winds will also gradaully be diminishing overnight, as the cyclone tracks to Ohio. Friday: Very cold but sunny as high pressure ridge settles over our area. Then high pressure slips to our southeast while a strong clipper system moves across Ontario. Some wintry mix or even freezing rain possible this morning for a period at BRL.
In response, a cold front, currently depicted via MSAS, will continue to move across the CWA early this morning. Cooler and much drier conditions are expected to develop after frontal passage.
Showers will spread from south to north this morning as a warm front crosses the region. Strong cold air advection will engage just after 06Z with frontal passage as temps drop into the lower 30s by 12Z with strong northwest flow through the rest of the night. The core of the colder airmass will move over the area by late Friday with lows dipping into the lower 20s.
Patchy light drizzle and freezing drizzle this morning.
Breezy north winds will continue through most of the day, with highs ranging from the mid 40s in the Big Country to the lower 50s along the I-10 corridor. As such, have lows dipping into the lower to mid 20s across all of west central Texas.
540 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will lift through the Midsouth today, along and ahead of a slow-moving cold front. Following the passage of the cold front today, cooler and less humid weather will prevail over the Midsouth Friday and the weekend.
543 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Quiet conditions continue across the region with latest observations showing increasing cloud cover ahead of an advancing upper level trough and low pressure near the Nebraska/Kansas border. Meanwhile at the sfc, will see a ridge axis slowly drift eastward throughout the day. Currently have gusts ranging from 15 to 25 mph, with those along the Buffalo Ridge approaching 30 to 35 mph at times.
An upper trough axis is set to shift across the area today. High pressure will continue settling over MN and the eastern Dakotas tonight will a warm front starts to set up across the western Dakotas. Our eastern areas will once again plummet into the single digits below zero tonight while zones farther west stay relatively warmer. On Friday, the warm front will start to march east across our CWA. Snow free areas across our west should have no trouble reaching the low to mid 50s. Zones farther east will be cooler with highs in the 30s for the most part, perhaps a few upper 20s across the Glacial Lakes.