Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
353 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 (Issued 345 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023) Today through Thursday night: High pressure over Lake Superior will move to Lake MI by late in the day then remain over the wrn Great Lakes into Thu AM. High temps will range from the upper 60s over ern WI to the lower 70s over south central WI. The high will slowly move to the lower Great Lakes for Thu-Thu nt while upper ridging and lgt sely winds takes hold over the region. Temps will rebound to near normal well away from the lake, with cooler but still nice temps for ern WI.
1214 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF predict an upper pattern characterized by an ridge over the southwestern CONUS and a developing trough near the TX coast, resulting in subsidence over the CWA.
Subsidence on the backside of Idalia, dry air aloft that will likely get mixed down this afternoon and it's still August all add up to us likely getting at least a few degrees warmer than it's suggesting. We have zero rain in the forecast for the next 7 days and while temperatures will warm back into the low 90s this weekend as high pressure settles back into the center of the country, our weather is going to be very benign.
445 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with hot high pressure situated over the Desert Southwest and a ridge jutting northeast through western Wyoming and western Montana and cresting over northern Alberta. A large disturbance has broken off the closed low over the Pacific Northwest and made a bee line along the International Border generating a front that should move through northeast Montana this morning.
754 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Cold advection will create below average temperature today, with high pressure setting up a prolonged period of dry weather. A surface cold front will continue to push southeast this morning as the upper level trough axis completes its passage, fostering notable cold advection across the region. The combination of cooler NW flow and remnant area moisture is expected to create periods of mostly cloudy sky that will aid in below average temperature readings. The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain heavily influenced by high pressure positioned over Michigan Thursday as what remains of Hurricane Idalia is shunted east toward the Atlantic Coast. Being positioned between the high and low will also delay a temperature rebound as highs are likely to remain a couple degrees below normal.
Elsewhere, warmer temperatures and hazy conditions expected. Cooler temperatures return for the latter half of the week into the weekend. Winds in the higher elevations of the North Bay are continuing to increase and should hit their overnight peak in the next few hours. The recent forecast update added fine adjustments to the higher elevation winds (particularly above 2000 ft) and the marine winds. But the main message remains on track for today: Dry and warm for the interior with dangerously dry and hot conditions for the higher peaks. Expect triple-digit heat in the higher peaks in the interior locations with widespread 80s and 90s for inland areas, and 60s-70s for the coastal areas.
DDV (Issued 345 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023) Today through Thursday night: High pressure over Lake Superior will move to Lake MI by late in the day then remain over the wrn Great Lakes into Thu AM. High temps will range from the upper 60s over ern WI to the lower 70s over south central WI. The high will slowly move to the lower Great Lakes for Thu-Thu nt while upper ridging and lgt sely winds takes hold over the region. Temps will rebound to near normal well away from the lake, with cooler but still nice temps for ern WI.
630 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 (Today through Thursday night) The influence of the main H500 high pressure system centered over the Grand Canyon as of the latest 07Z obs, will slowly shift east into the central New Mexico through tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will range from the lower to upper 90s.
Highs this afternoon will be in the mid-80s to low-90s across the CWA, about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday in most places. Meanwhile, a minor disturbance to the flow, caused by the low moving along far north of us, will provide just a bit of lift to the mountains. Key Messages: 1) Daily shot of showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain through the Labor Day weekend.
958 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 A cold front will continue to move southward away from northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania through the morning.
1039 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 A surge of cooler air will be observed today in the wake of cold front. Clouds to decrease in coverage this afternoon from the southwest as the trof shifts to the east. Temperatures look to be 6 to 10 degrees below normal with highs from the lower/mid 70s north to the upper 70s south. As it does, the cooler air mass will shift east away from the Ohio Valley, allowing warming temperatures. In addition, the longwave ridge anchored over the southern Plains will shift east into the region.
655 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 A surge of cooler air will be observed today in the wake of cold front. A dry surface cold front to push south of the area early this morning. In the low level CAA pattern in the wake of the cold front stratocumulus clouds to develop into the region from the north early this morning. As the trof shifts to the east. Temperatures look to be 6 to 10 degrees below normal with highs from the lower/mid 70s north to the upper 70s south. As it does, the cooler air mass will shift east away from the Ohio Valley, allowing warming temperatures. In addition, the longwave ridge anchored over the southern Plains will shift east into the region.
334 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2023 With the upper-level ridge still dominating the region, expect another hot and dry day. On top of this, a potent upper-level trough passing through Montana and northern Wyoming will steepen pressure gradients and increase flow aloft with 45+ kt 500 mb winds. Looking at another warm, dry and breezy day on Thursday as the upper- level ridge stays locked over the Four Corners region. Still a breezy day as the upper-level trough to the north pushes into the Dakotas. The low relative humidities and wind will likely mean that fire weather will be a concern for parts of the CWA.
211 AM PDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Temperatures today and tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than seasonal, with temperatures tomorrow expected to hit triple digits for many areas within the San Joaquin Valley.
629 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 A cold front will continue to move southward away from northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania through the morning.
459 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2023 With the upper-level ridge still dominating the region, expect another hot and dry day. On top of this, a potent upper-level trough passing through Montana and northern Wyoming will steepen pressure gradients and increase flow aloft with 45+ kt 500 mb winds. Looking at another warm, dry and breezy day on Thursday as the upper- level ridge stays locked over the Four Corners region. Still a breezy day as the upper-level trough to the north pushes into the Dakotas. The low relative humidities and wind will likely mean that fire weather will be a concern for parts of the CWA.
538 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Upper ridge will gradually build over Kansas and the central Plains the next couple of days. Meanwhile, subtle low-level cooling will try and advect into far eastern Kansas on the periphery of a cooler surface anticyclone settling south across the western Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi Valley. The maintenance of a dry low-level airmass which has proven quite resilient with respect to strong diurnal warming, should allow temperatures to still climb into the lower 90s today and Thursday.
The highest impacts will be in the far southeastern counties where the heaviest rainfall amounts of 4-8" with locally higher amounts are forecast along with wind gusts near or over 50 mph, which would lead to increased flash and river flooding potential as well as downed trees and scattered power outages. Fortunately, Idalia is a fast-moving storm and will be shunted eastward as a surface cold front pushes southward into north Georgia, and impacts will begin to quickly diminish after 00-03Z. Mostly dry conditions are expected Thursday, though lingering moisture associated with an inverted trough over the Gulf Coast could produce a couple of isolated showers in Middle Georgia.
303 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2023 GOES Water Vapor imagery early this morning shows a mid-level closed low across west-central Montana. Widespread rain has developed on the north-northwest side of this low, where synoptic ascent is being maximized. The upper low will slowly track northeastward across the Glacier Park region this morning, reaching southern Alberta by the afternoon and evening hours.
The return of storms will bring cooler temperatures to the area. Today: high pressure continues to shift eastward today, further putting us in a more favorable pattern to usher moisture into the region.
The strong upper level high that has been dominating the Southwest will linger today before shifting back to the east. As for storm chances today, PWs have been slowly decreasing over the past few soundings combined with the continued warmer mid levels continues the isolated storm trend. Looking ahead, the high shifting to the east and reconsolidating over the plains allows for the trough to dig farther south into Northern California.
741 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Aviation High pressure will continue to build into the northern Great Lakes region today bringing fair wx with seasonably cool temperatures. A fairly large diurnal temp swing is expected Thursday with high temps reaching the lower to middle 70s after a cool start to the day with mostly sunny skies and a dry airmass in place.
1043 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Notably cooler air in the wake of a cold front will support some sprinkles and light scattered showers this afternoon.
534 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 (Today) NE-SW oriented s/wv trof axis is making its way across the south- central CONUS this morning. The HRRR suggests an isolated shower is possible near the terrain of W AR closer to the trof axis this afternoon. Highs should be a touch cooler than yesterday, but probably not as cool as NBM suggests.
421 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 High pressure over Lake Superior will settle southward across the Great Lakes region and into IL through Thursday, bringing fair weather to the area.
536 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 (Today and tonight) West Central Texas will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge today that is centered across the Desert Southwest.
Winds this morning in Barbour and Russell counties could see gusts in the 25-30 MPH range, but for the most part the higher winds should remain just SE of the BMX CWA.
Still anticipating highs to reach the lower to mid 80s for most areas, with some spots in the west likely reaching the mid to upper 80s due to less cloud cover.
543 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 (Today) In contrast to our neighbors to the south and east, uneventful weather is expected today across the Tennessee Valley as high pressure nudges south below upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side, with afternoon highs limited to the low to mid 80s in the east and upper 80s in the west where cloud cover is less of a factor. One noticeable change today will be the increase in breezy conditions as the Tennessee Valley remains wedged between high pressure to the north and a major hurricane to the south, resulting in increasing gradient winds today.
Continued dry and cooler conditions today with breezy north and northeast winds. Those north and northeast winds are also brining in drier and cooler air that will allow for highs today to be right around 80 and overnight lows in the 50s. Tomorrow will be a touch cooler with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 with overnight lows again in the 50s.
Hot and dry conditions will continue today across our region before a deep low pressure system drops down from the Pacific Northwest Thursday bringing gusty south winds.
An upper level trough will remain over northern Idaho today, bringing breezy west to northwest winds through this evening. Temperatures today will be around 20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
(This evening through Thursday night) 12z RAOBs depict a 595 dm upper high over AZ with upper ridging extending northeastward over the central Plains. This afternoon into tomorrow, aforementioned upper high looks to shift northeastward over the Panhandles.
This afternoon's water vapor satellite loops display moisture wrapping into the Northern Rockies due to the low-pressure center moving through the area. Ensemble guidance indicates that the next trough will move south along the coast on Thursday and then stall around northern California.
Current sfc analysis depicts trough/frontal feature draped across far western SD. Strong LLJ develops this evening as trough crosses the region. Still, south central SD could see some advsy level gusts later this evening into the overnight hours as the trough passes through.
Mostly sunny skies across southeast AZ this morning as high pressure resides across north central AZ which will result in another day of excessive heat from Tucson westward.
310 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Short Term/Marine Very quiet weather in the short term with no rain and cooler than typical for late August temperatures. Thursday is the first day of an expected gradual warming with high temperatures in the mid 70s or around 5 degrees or so warmer than today.
The return of storms will bring cooler temperatures to the area. High pressure aloft is centered over Arizona today with continued subsidence expected to limit convective activity. Today: high pressure continues to shift eastward today, further putting us in a more favorable pattern to usher moisture into the region.
(Through tonight ) Weak upper trough axis remains over east TX this afternoon, and there remains a non-zero chance of a stray shower near the terrain of far southeast OK or west central AR. Aside from that another uneventful night with low temps a tad cooler compared to last night, owing to a slightly drier low-level airmass.
-Slightly cooler temperatures and drier conditions expected behind the exiting tropical system.
Drier high pressure works in Thursday through the weekend. 2)Winds pick up as TC Idalia pushes into the Low Country of SC tonight. Forecast track takes the center of it into the Low Country of SC tonight, weakening to a Tropical Storm by 8am Thursday. Surface cold front crossing the area from the north will get drawn into and wrapped around the northwest periphery of Idalia tonight. As for temperatures, thickening clouds as the tropical system gains latitude will temper the highs today with readings in the 70s to lower 80s. Thinking is places like the Greenbrier Valley toward Burkes Garden will have lows in the lower 50s, to mid 50s elsewhere west of the Blue Ridge, with 60s east.
Based on guidance, expect it to stay present either aloft or at the surface through tomorrow morning, when an upper low should help usher it out. The lowest visibilities (1/4 mile) currently extend from Hallock to Roseau, but they range from 2 to 5 miles in other spots throughout the RRV. Beyond Thursday minimal chances for precipitation are expected with high confidence in short wave ridging building back in as we begin a warming trend for the Labor Day weekend.
(This evening through Thursday) Upper level ridging centered over the Desert Southwest continues to gradually expand northeastward with broad subsidence and a much drier airmass now in place over the southern plains states. Weak surface ridging will keep winds light through the remainder of today and tonight with overnight lows near seasonal averages.
1207 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 (Today through Thursday night) The influence of the main H500 high pressure system centered over the Grand Canyon as of the latest 07Z obs, will slowly shift east into the central New Mexico through tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will range from the lower to upper 90s.
Low to mid level ridging will mark conditions for the remainder of the work week.
A broad area of low pressure will begin developing in the western Gulf Thursday morning, with winds shifting to out of the southeast, around this low. This flow will bring moisture and warmer air advection, with a possibility for afternoon convection, mainly in areas south of I85. Thanks to the warm air moving up from the Gulf, temperatures will warm into the mid 80s in the north and the lower 90s in the south Thursday afternoon.
308 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 A ridge affects our region through Labor Day weekend.
205 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Tropical Cyclone Idalia will steadily weaken today as it moves over south Georgia reaching the South Carolina coast tonight. Expect heavy rain at times and gusty winds across the lower Piedmont late today into Thursday morning.
1242 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 (Today and tonight) West Central Texas will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge today that is centered across the Desert Southwest.
A long wave trough stretches southwest to near the Texas Gulf Coast, while mean-layer ridging gains real estate across the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
A reinforcing cold front is moving south through the Ohio Valley. There is no sensible weather expected with this front as it pushes through late this afternoon and this evening but it will usher in a drier and cooler airmass with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s by Thursday.
Continued the High risk of rip currents for the Gulf facing beaches until 7 PM Thursday. Upper ridge will remain over the southern Rockies into the southern high plains Thursday while a weak mid level trough forms over the northwest Gulf of Mexico south of a mid level low over Louisiana.
A more zonal flow develops Thursday night as the wave exits and ridging builds over the Southern Plains. Relief does appear to be coming as southerly winds will begin to push the smoke back to the north ahead of an approaching low pressure system tonight and Thursday. A tight pressure gradient has developed across central South Dakota this afternoon ahead of the approaching low pressure system. Weak high pressure returns Thursday night. The period starts off with a system aloft tracking away from the area, and an upper trof digging south along the west coast. The rebounding heights, of course, will also bring warmer air aloft into the forecast area as the troposphere goes through an expansion.
This, in addition to drier conditions from northwest flow, will allow for cooler temperatures area-wide tonight.
1250 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Drier weather returns to the region through the holiday weekend courtesy of building high pressure.
(Tonight through Thursday night) As Idalia works off the Southeastern US Coast, broad mid-level low pressure persists across the western Gulf through the short term period with dry air aloft becoming drier into Thursday. Northeasterly winds have done very little to cool Deep South Texas today, but have brought slightly more comfortable conditions, with dewpoints into the low to mid 60s across Cameron and Hidalgo counties and mid to upper 50s elsewhere.
1246 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Upper ridge will gradually build over Kansas and the central Plains the next couple of days. Meanwhile, subtle low-level cooling will try and advect into far eastern Kansas on the periphery of a cooler surface anticyclone settling south across the western Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi Valley. The maintenance of a dry low-level airmass which has proven quite resilient with respect to strong diurnal warming, should allow temperatures to still climb into the lower 90s today and Thursday.
229 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2023 An upper level high centered over the Central and Southern Rockies will bring very warm and dry conditions through Thursday. For the rest of today, cumulus clouds will continue over the higher terrain, some of which will drift east off the higher terrain. Can't rule out a few high based showers/storms, over the higher terrain. Mountain valleys will fall into the 40s with 50s for the lower locations across the plains. The airmass will be slightly warmer, so expect highs over northeast Colorado to reach the mid to upper 90s.
252 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Upper trough axis over the Great Lakes will shift eastward tonight into the Northeast while TC Idalia continues to move northeast into the Carolinas. Dry weather is expected for Thursday as high pressure passes just to our north.
112 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Cold advection will create below average temperature today, with high pressure setting up a prolonged period of dry weather. A surface cold front will continue to push southeast this morning as the upper level trough axis completes its passage, fostering notable cold advection across the region. The combination of cooler NW flow and remnant area moisture is expected to create periods of mostly cloudy sky that will aid in below average temperature readings. The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain heavily influenced by high pressure positioned over Michigan Thursday as what remains of Hurricane Idalia is shunted east toward the Atlantic Coast. Being positioned between the high and low will also delay a temperature rebound as highs are likely to remain a couple degrees below normal.
Our next system will be a closed low affecting us on Thursday. 50% show some showers developing, but quite a few soundings in the guidance still show a substantial dry layer extending through the lower levels. High temperatures will stick in the low to mid 80s for both today and tomorrow. Lows look to be in the low to mid 60s. Ridging builds into the area shortly after the passage of the low, and WAA looks to give us a chance at some above average temperatures heading into the first week of September.
(Now through Thursday) Idalia is forecast to move across southeast Georgia and into the western Atlantic through Thursday, while an upper trof over eastern Texas, Louisiana and the northwest Gulf creeps a bit closer to the forecast area. May see a few showers or storms develop near the coast this evening where a weak surface trof looks to exist, but otherwise dry conditions prevail. For Thursday, the weak surface trof appears to become oriented east of I-65, and have opted for chance pops east of I-65 tapering to dry conditions further to the west.
There is a stout low-level gradient between Idalia over northern Florida and the building low-level ridge gaining real estate across the Bahamas and the Florida Keys. Island communities in the Lower Keys continue to gust to 35 to 40 mph with the squalls. The low level streamlines should become more anticyclonic throughout the next several hours. Strong southerly breezes will slacken gradually through Thursday, as high pressure builds over the area. Over the weekend, high pressure over the eastern United States and Idalia off the Southeast United States coastline will cause winds to shift to north to northeast with light to gentle breezes, moderate at times.
/29 (Now through Thursday) Idalia is forecast to move across southeast Georgia and into the western Atlantic through Thursday, while an upper trof over eastern Texas, Louisiana and the northwest Gulf creeps a bit closer to the forecast area. May see a few showers or storms develop near the coast this evening where a weak surface trof looks to exist, but otherwise dry conditions prevail. For Thursday, the weak surface trof appears to become oriented east of I-65, and have opted for chance pops east of I-65 tapering to dry conditions further to the west.
A significant cooling trend will start on Thursday as high pressure pushes east and low pressure forms over California.
132 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 A cold front will continue to move southward away from northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania through the morning.
1233 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Continued dry and cooler conditions today with breezy north and northeast winds. Those north and northeast winds are also brining in drier and cooler air that will allow for highs today to be right around 80 and overnight lows in the 50s. Tomorrow will be a touch cooler with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 with overnight lows again in the 50s.