Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
710 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Patchy fog is possible late tonight, otherwise turning sharply warmer and dry for the Fourth of July.
The ridge will remain anchored to our south as a weak trough settles along the west coast. This will disrupt the normal zephyr pattern as some "cooler" air settles into the northern Great Basin. The highest snowmelt flows typically occur during the overnight or early morning hours.
645 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2023 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Cooler than normal temperatures are forecast through tomorrow. Upper level troughing rotating around an upper level area of lower heights located overhead the Canadian Saskatchewan Province cycles through our area today and tomorrow. Northerly winds behind a surface front offer cooler than normal temperatures to The Treasure State from the north.
757 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Weak high pressure will build across the the region tonight into Tuesday. Another cold front will arrive later in the week. The cold front appears to be located roughly along the US 30 corridor at this time. The boundary will stall and wash out over the Ohio Valley tonight as surface ridging builds in from the northern Great Lakes, so expect the leftover activity to quickly fade with sunset as drier air works in. Lingering low level moisture, small dew point depressions, and light and variable winds as high pressure builds in will give way to fog development areawide overnight tonight. Mainly clear and quiet for Tuesday as high pressure builds over the area from the south.
Cooler late this week into the weekend, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Primary focus for development will be east of the Highway 65 corridor early this afternoon, before dissipating with the loss of afternoon heating/instability this evening. Afternoon highs climb into the lower to middle 90s, with maximum heat indicies around 95 to near 100. Wednesday: The upper level trough and associated frontal boundary push south into the area on Wednesday. Forecast highs are in the lower 90s, with a substantial increase in humidity as heat indicies approach 100 on Wednesday afternoon.
333 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 Today and Tonight: Overall, cooler and wetter weather is expected through the period. Wl maintain a moist airmass with PWATs near two inches and surface dew points in the low to mid 70s. While high temperatures won't climb into the upper 90s as previous days, temperatures will still range from the low to mid 90s and combined with dewpoints in the 70s, heat index values around 105 degrees will be possible across these areas.
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 60s. an upper level trough and its associated cold front are forecast to move through the area during the afternoon and overnight hours. as the base of the upper trough axis moves through, we'll be waiting for the next weather system to move through from Colorado during the overnight hours, mainly impacting those west of a line from Wray to Oakley. High temperatures will be cooler with upper 60s to middle 70s forecast.
This shift in the location of the high pressure center will result in a noticable cooling today with highs topping out several degrees cooler than the past few days, and dropping our heat risk out of the high category just about everywhere.
Pattern Synopsis: Subtle ridging and associated weak upper-level flow will reside over the Great Lakes through tonight, resulting in a nebulous surface pattern across the region. Upstream, broad troughing will continue to slide across the northern Great Plains and much of Canada, providing favorable divergence aloft to support a cyclone that will trek across Hudson Bay into tonight. An attendant cold front draped far to its southwest will swing across much of the Great Plains and upper Midwest through the period. While these temperatures will be 10-15 degrees warmer than average, we should stay away from record high values at most obs sites.
207 AM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023 A reinforcing shot of cooler air will largely keep high temperatures in the 60's today, while maintaining chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two through the day. To start the forecast, a large closed upper low across northern portions of SK and MB is filling in. Otherwise the most impactful point worth mentioning is a final reinforcing shot of cooler air is arriving this morning. Aforementioned upper closed low turns into an open trough and continues pushing northeastward for the last half of the week. Combine this with a developing ridge in the eastern Pacific and the Northern Rockies will reside under northwesterly flow aloft.
courtesy of high pressure that will reach into our region from the Ohio valley. Weak mid level ridging will build across the Lower Great Lakes for the Fourth of July. The return to prtly to mstly sunny skies and subtle warming aloft will support a warmer day with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. High pressure moving across the region Tuesday night will guarantee fair dry weather.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge currently located over eastern Arizona will slide eastward into New Mexico today.
1246 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) High pressure will remain in control through much of the short term. A weak front dropped south of the CWA earlier today but is expected to push north by tomorrow as a warm front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected remain scattered and organized severe weather will remain on the low side. Overall, QPF amounts will be on the low side across much of the state. Overnight low temperatures are not expected to cool a whole lot with temps in the low to mid 70s.
337 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023 High pressure will build across the area today, providing mostly dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures.
226 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023 Low pressure will depart the Ohio Valley to the northeast tonight. A weak ridge of high pressure will bring mainly dry conditions to the region outside of very isolated late day showers on the 4th and 5th.
High pressure at the sfc and aloft is building in this afternoon helping this cause. The trigger still looks to be a weak thermal trough over the land area between U. -127, between the two mesoscale ridges over the cooler lakes. The fog threat for tonight looks lower than last night with drying in the lower levels expected with good mixing. We should stay dry then Tuesday night as the low level jet, upper level dynamics, and sfc front stay far enough west to likely not have an impact here yet by then. A cold front will focus some storms moving into western Lower Michigan Wednesday afternoon. Precipitable water values are progged to be around 2 inches ahead of the cold front so locally heavy rain is possible in any thunderstorms.
However, the unsettled conditions will come to an end as ridging builds into the region Tuesday night, bringing hot, and dry conditions through the middle of the week. Ridging will finally start building into the region this evening and tonight with clearing expected. Tomorrow will be mostly dry with ridging moving overhead, but temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees in some of the more urban areas.
Northcentral and central Wisconsin will see an increasing chance of thunderstorms this evening as a cold front approaches from Minnesota. High temperatures will depend on cloud cover and how quickly the cold front moves across the region. Highs will likely range from the lower 70s in far northcentral WIsconsin to the low to mid 80s in the east.
Overnight, expect increasing vort energy as an upper trof nears, which may keep spotty showers and perhaps a few general tstms ongoing toward daybreak. Otherwise, typical early July heat and humidity is expected with max temperatures right around climo yielding middle or upper 90s for maximum apparent temperatures in the warmer Piedmont locales.
As the low level jet (LLJ) continue to strengthen, expect more scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the second area as it continues its eastward push this morning. Otherwise, southerly flow at the surface will transition to northerly flow this afternoon behind the cold front with highs expected to peak in the upper 70s to low 90s across the region. This Evening/Tonight: Looking into the rest of the day, another round of showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along the cold front this afternoon as deeper synoptic lift enters the area. Otherwise, overnight temperatures will be a bit cooler due to the increased rain chances. This will result in lows in the low to upper 50s across the area.
There will be a general weakness in the mid-levels associated with an area of vorticity/trough axis across southeast Oklahoma. Otherwise, afternoon highs will range from the low 90s to near 100 deg F with heat indicies as high as 105 deg F (across southeast Oklahoma and parts of north Texas).
1124 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A surface frontal boundary will remain along the coast through Tuesday while upper level low pressure crosses the region.
- Cooler and drier air will follow through the rest of the week with the next chance for rain this weekend. It is unclear how the morning activity will augment the character of the cold front for later today, but most of the energy from this morning will be well to the north. Breaks in the clouds could send temperatures back into the lower 90s ahead of the front and dew point pooling in the mid 60s to lower 70s is likely. There could be a few showers and storms lingering along the cold front for much of the day, but the second round should begin to develop in earnest after 4 PM from southwest MN to northwest WI. Cooler and drier air will work in Wednesday, marking the beginning of a period of near or below normal temperatures.
1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: -Increasing chances for precipitation -Heat Advisory possible again tomorrow Not much change to the forecast as a mid-level high across the Desert Southwest and another one over the eastern Gulf will keep a trough in place stretched from the Great Lakes to central Texas.
(Today through Wednesday) Changes continue this Independence Day with a weak trough of low pressure settling across Texas in between ridges of high pressure into mid week.
1212 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Barring a few showers and storms later today, a much quieter evening is in the works as upper ridging draws closer from the Desert Southwest. Heights and thicknesses build for July Fourth as the upper ridge expands ENE from its parent high in western New Mexico.
- Cooler and active weather pattern into the weekend. Mid-level water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a subtle vorticity max draped across Kansas and Oklahoma, ridging over the desert southwest, and a large upper low spinning over southern Canada. Along the mid-level vort max in southern Kansas, low-level moisture has crept northward helping to reinforce a theta-e ridge that could lead to isolated pockets of convection this afternoon. Rain chances will quickly exit the area late Wednesday afternoon and evening as surface ridging moves in from the northwest.
A ridge parked over the Desert Southwest will continue to bring very warm temperatures through the week and weekend, with nearly no chances for precipitation. A diffuse backdoor cold front is pushing into the region early this morning, generating light northeast winds and slight cooling by a few degrees today. -Dustin Very warm temperatures and insolation will continue the high elevation snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada.
* Hot temperatures tomorrow in the 90s and triple digits in advance of a cold front bringing highs into the 70s for Wednesday.
Above the lower levels, a disturbance laden mid and upper flow continued from the subtropics and northern Mexico, then ENE across the southern states.
A better coverage of storms is expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night when a cold front moves in from the northwest. 2) SPC slight risk (level 2/5) for severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening ahead of the next cold front. Early afternoon surface map indicated high pressure stretched from the lower Mississippi River Valley north into the Great Lakes. It will be another warm and humid day with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s and heat indices peaking in the low/mid 90s. Wednesday, a longwave trough traversing the upper Midwest pushes a cold front into the region during the afternoon and evening.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) High pressure to our west begins exerting its influence today as it nudges east towards eastern New Mexico and West Texas. The warming trend continues tomorrow as highs edge up another degree or two with the upper ridge continuing to gradually build east.
A dry cold frontal passage overnight will keep locally gusty winds along the I-84 corridor through the night. An upper trough approaching from the north will send a weak dry cold front through the region tonight as it moves across the northern Rockies. Moisture accompanying the trough will remain to our east. Northwest flow behind the trough will send diffuse layers of high-level smoke/haze into our area on Tuesday. A weak upper trough near the coast will slowly move inland through midweek. Limited moisture and instability associated with the trough will lead to a slight chance (less than 20 percent) of late-day showers and thunderstorms in Harney County, otherwise dry conditions prevail. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer and winds will be light.
This frontal boundary is associated with the main upper level trough in Ontario. There could be a few spotty strong to severe thunderstorms, but chances are on the low end (20% chance). Conditions clear out for Wednesday, with much cooler temperatures.
Water vapor imagery shows a positively tilted upper trough extending from southeast Canada through the Ohio Valley into the Central Plains with somewhat confluent 500mb flow over the Carolinas. Elevated dewpoints in the lower 70s will yield heat indices in the 100-105 range for a few hours this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will be mild due to convective debris clouds with lows in the lower to mid 70s expected. Weak upper troughiness will shift across the region through the period, with atmospheric moisture progged to remain high. Latest guidance suggests generally mid 90s for highs Tuesday, with afternoon dewpoints in the lower 70s, possibly mid 70s. Weak upper troughiness and high atmospheric moisture remains in place through the period, with another weak surface boundary entering the region.
349 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 A cold front will push southward into Kansas in response to a northern stream upper level disturbance. Given the high dewpoint depressions, these storms will rapidly form into a line. Given that the upper level ridge will be flattened and located to the south over New Mexico and west Texas, there will be numerous opportunities for evening and nighttime thunderstorm clusters to initiate on the favored topographic regions to the west (Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa). Given the high dewpoints, afternoons will be on the warm and "muggy" side. A cold front will approach toward the end of the period, with a wind shift to the north at 20 kts.
1231 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) High pressure continues to hold court over the Southwest US, including West Texas. Tomorrow will be fairly similar to today with the biggest difference that highs end up a couple to a few degrees warmer in the mid to upper 90s for most.
Weak high pressure remains across the region and a gradual increase in moisture across the area will continue through the week. The persistent ridge will also lead to above average temperatures in the middle to upper 90s this afternoon. Westerly flow will continue with the weak ridging overhead, so daily showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along sea breeze boundaries each afternoon before moving inland. By late week, a weak trough across the eastern US could dip far enough south to interact with our elevated moisture leading to increased rain chances. High pressure remains across the eastern Gulf of Mexico the next several days.
This will coincide with an upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest along the US/Mexico border. This will result in seasonably warm and muggy weather and increased instability each afternoon thanks to dew points into the low 70s Wed & Thu and the upper 60s Fri & Sat.
Any showers that do form this afternoon dissipate quickly this evening as high pressure settles in overhead. High pressure briefly takes hold for Wednesday.
Meanwhile weak high pressure persists over the southwest. So have dewpoint temps holding in the lower and middle 60s through the afternoon. Cooler temperatures are forecast for Wednesday with clouds and north winds limiting heating.
An approaching cold front will become a focus for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Deeply mixed inverted-v profiles across our central KS counties will support a damaging wind threat with the developing line of storms along the advancing cold front. Much cooler air will overspread the area in the wake of the front with portions of central KS seeing highs in the 70s. Cooler air will overspread the area in the wake of the frontal boundary with highs in the lower 80s for most areas. Clouds and precipitation should result in another seasonably cool day with highs in the low 80s on Fri.
The system is bringing a cold front through the forecast area early this morning. It will bring cooler than normal temperatures and the coolest Fourth of July since 2004. Trough moves to the east on Wednesday and temperatures will be around 10 degrees warmer with dry weather and mostly sunny skies.
Alabama is located under a deep southwest flow pattern with a weak upper trof just to the north of Alabama. Temperatures will be near normal for early July with highs in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the 70s.
130 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023 (Rest of today through Tuesday) A mid-level ridge of high pressure associated with the greater Bermuda high over the northern Atlantic continues to hold over the region. While this ridge is not enough to completely shut off convective activity, it will help keep a warm airmass over the region which will make conditions ripe for heat index values in the triple digits each day before the rain from showers and thunderstorms have a chance to provide some relief.
However, the unsettled conditions will come to an end as ridging builds into the region Tuesday night, bringing hot, and dry conditions through the middle of the week. Ridging will finally start building into the region this evening and tonight with clearing expected. Tomorrow will be mostly dry with ridging moving overhead, but temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees in some of the more urban areas. Guidance hints at isolated pop up showers Wednesday night given the high levels of instability present from long periods of sunshine earlier in the day.
1120 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A deep positively tilted upper level trough extends from a low near the Hudson Bay down through western WY to Idaho.
627 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 Today and Tonight: Overall, cooler and wetter weather is expected through the period. Wl maintain a moist airmass with PWATs near two inches and surface dew points in the low to mid 70s. While high temperatures won't climb into the upper 90s as previous days, temperatures will still range from the low to mid 90s and combined with dewpoints in the 70s, heat index values around 105 degrees will be possible across these areas.
Regardless, we should see convection throughout the afternoon hours in some capacity, whether or not the POP values are a touch on the high side.
248 AM PDT Tue Jul 4 2023 Hot afternoon highs continue, but a gradual cooling trend will occur through the week as high pressure aloft weakens.
Also, a majority of the deterministic as well as ensembles are indicating that a weak warm front will develop across the region, mainly along the I-70 corridor. In the meantime, the trough over the Northern Rockies will continue to slide east into the Great Lakes region. Decent agreement among the deterministic and ensembles with the location and timing of the associated cold front which will slide through the region on Wednesday. Given such uncertainty, kept the low chance POPs (20-40%) over western portions of forecast area through Wednesday morning. As for afternoon activity, the low level flow ahead of the front will usher in dewpoints in the low to mid 70s with increasing instability. At this time, highs range from the mid 80s far north to the low to mid 90s along and south of I-70.
Across the north and in all areas East of the Divide, a cold front has slid southward into the area and brought much cooler temperatures and these will continue today.
Overnight, a cold front will approach from the west featuring a line of decaying showers and storms that will move into the area from MN and IA.
524 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023 High pressure continues to bring clear skies across SE MI which has brought about patchy mvfr fog during the overnight hours.
307 AM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023 Broad positively-tilted upper trof extends from upper low in northern MB across MT. On the surface, low pressure is located near VTN with cold front behind it draped across northwestern NE and southern WY while high pressure pushes southward across high plains. Then convection will shift to the south as trof axis swings eastward and storms develop along frontal boundary across NE-KS- CO. Under cyclonic northwest upper flow, high pressure settles over the area for unseasonably cool temperatures, about 15 degrees below normal and lows Wed morning in the low-mid 30s in the higher elevations of the Black Hills.
621 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Concur with deterministic solutions that the upper pattern will remain quasi-stationary during the period, with a weak trough or weakness in the height field over the region.
603 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) High pressure to our west begins exerting its influence today as it nudges east towards eastern New Mexico and West Texas. The warming trend continues tomorrow as highs edge up another degree or two with the upper ridge continuing to gradually build east.
612 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge currently located over eastern Arizona will slide eastward into New Mexico today.
CIMMS mean-layer analyses place a large ridge complex over the Yucatan and western Cuba, corroborated by a 594 dm height measured by the KKEY RAOB at 500 mb. Highs should have no problem reaching the lower 90s, and SFC winds will average 5 to 8 knots from the northeast to east. However, mariners should be mindful of the clearance below the lowest fixed bridges along the island chain during this morning's high tides, which are running a foot above mean higher high water (normal high tide). A fractured Atlantic ridge axis will reach west across Florida today and tonight, maintaining light to gentle breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters.
* Cooler temperatures will arrive on Wednesday with highs only in the low 60s to low 70s which is nearly 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
A cold front will push southward into Kansas in response to a northern stream upper level disturbance. Given the high dewpoint depressions, these storms will rapidly form into a line. Given that the upper level ridge will be flattened and located to the south over New Mexico and west Texas, there will be numerous opportunities for evening and nighttime thunderstorm clusters to initiate on the favored topographic regions to the west (Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa). Given the high dewpoints, afternoons will be on the warm and "muggy" side. A cold front will pass across the TAF sites between 02 and 05z, with winds shifting to the north.
652 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023 High pressure will build across the area today, providing mostly dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures.
Very hot, above normal daytime temperatures for early July will continue this week under high pressure aloft. The main story this week is the warmer than normal temperatures across the area that doesn't look to abate anytime soon.