Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
For This afternoon, the toughest area will be in the Cedar Bluff Lake to Hays area where the dew will probably remain in the low 60s through the entire day, and force the heat index up well above 105 degrees - possibly close to 110 degrees.
123 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 A potent upper trough moving just north of Lake Ontario tonight will help to direct a noticeably cooler and less humid airmass into the Commonwealth with chilly temperatures in the upper 40s to upper 50s in store for tonight.
410 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Showery and cool conditions expected across the region today as a low pressure system gradually moves away from our area.
1116 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 There is a trough from the eastern Great Lakes to the Carolinas and another wave over the western coastal seaboard. In the middle of the CONUS through the Plains, there is a ridge at 500mb and 700mb with a wave tracking east into the Plains at 850mb.
(Today through Sunday) Upper ridge currently centered near Oklahoma City, with an upper low off the southern California coast. At the surface, the old frontal boundary appears to now be to our north, with high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The upper high drifts a bit northeast over the next 36 hours, to be centered near the Missouri-Kansas border by Sunday evening.
This high has strengthened since last night and shifted east. Under near full insolation today of our warm airmass afternoon highs are expected to top out a little warmer than yesterday.
1246 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Evening RAP & synoptic/00Z upper air analysis indicates mean ridge, up to 596DM, centered over the Plains to ArkLaTex. As the Great Lakes/CONUS longwave trough/frontal system swings east, the ridge is progged to build east. 6 PWs in evening regional soundings/GOES East total PWs, moisture return aloft or into the low-levels will remain at a minimum. /DC/ Tonight into Tomorrow: Mostly clear skies and warming temperatures continue today into tomorrow as the upper-level ridge builds east over the Mississippi River Valley.
(Today and tonight) Key Message: Dry weather continues with warmer temps starting today. Discussion: Dry weather continues as a strong ridge remains anchored over the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure dominates the Eastern U. With ridging overhead and sunny skies, highs this afternoon will return to near normal in the mid to upper 80s in the Valley.
A ridge to valley split of a few degrees has also developed and will persist through the overnight. A large and strong ridge of high pressure will bring light winds, dry conditions, mostly clear skies, and below normal temperatures to the area through Sunday morning.
This will allow temperatures to peak in the upper-70s, challenging 80 degrees in many places, under mostly sunny skies (filtering through wildfire smoke aloft) with the upper-level ridging settling in.
1228 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) The upper ridge is centered over OK today and covers the middle of the country as a low spins along the CA coast. The upper ridge will slowly wobble NE moving into MO by Sunday morning as a Pacific Hurricane moves up the west coast of Baja.
Much cooler conditions expected into Sunday with highs into the 70s.
Temperatures are in the high 60s to low 70s. An upper level ridge remains dominant through the period bringing in above average temperatures. A cold front will dip down into the region Sunday morning bringing winds back around to the north. This will draw some cooler air down into the region and give us a little relief from the heat. Highs on Sunday are expected to be in the low 70s to low 80s.
Filtered sunshine from the smoke coupled with slightly cooler air within the post-frontal environment will yield highs in the upper 80s to mid/upper 90s with heat indices of 105-110 confined to locations along and south of I-80.
140 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure continues over the region into Sunday.
A seasonable start to the weekend is on tap with highs in the lower 80s today.
On Saturday, increasing south winds will bring in much warmer temperatures. A Beach Hazards Statement is effect from noon Saturday to 4 am Sunday due to the high risk of rip currents.
15 With the presence of the upper ridge moving overhead the region over the upcoming weekend, high temps will be near or possibly breaking the all-time hottest temps on record.
312 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 A dome of high pressure centered over the central US will help keep dry conditions present through the weekend.
124 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure builds over the weekend. Blocking high pressure pattern surface and aloft into the new week. Forecast on track with high pressure taking charge. Dry conditions ensue as a ridge of high pressure builds from the west. A pleasant day is in store on Saturday as the ridge continues to slide east. By Sunday, upper level ridging spills in from the west. High pressure and dry weather starts this period off with a nice blocking high pressure pattern centered over the Midwest.
15 (06Z TAFS) For the 19/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail as a strong high pressure ridge aloft continues to dominate our airspace with SKC expected. /19/ With the presence of the upper ridge moving overhead the region over the upcoming weekend, high temps will be near or possibly breaking the all-time hottest temps on record.
A ridge to valley split of a few degrees has also developed and will persist through the overnight. A large and strong ridge of high pressure will bring light winds, dry conditions, mostly clear skies, and below normal temperatures to the area through Sunday morning. The period will start with a large and very strong upper level high over the middle of the CONUS, and a closed low near New Brunswick with troughing extending down the East Coast. The low will open and depart to the northeast as it gets absorbed back into the larger flow. This will allow the still strengthening high to ridge further to the east toward the Mid Atlantic states. The dominating ridge will bring us mostly clear skies with climbing temperatures early in the week.
An upper level high is currently moving east over the region early this morning. Highs across the eastern portions of the area will generally be in the lower 90s but will have to watch how fast the air mass advects east as it is possible they get a few degrees warmer late this afternoon/early this evening. The upper level high will become centered over the region on Sunday and will remain over the area through much of the week.
138 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Showery and cool conditions will continue through Saturday night as a low pressure system gradually moves away from our area.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Impressive ridging/heat dome exists across the nation's midsection at this early hour with closed upper- level low pressure across New England/Quebec and Hurricane Hillary making its way towards Baja California in the Pacific. At the surface, high pressure over the Ohio Valley will make very slow eastward progress through the near- term forecast period. High temps largely in the 80s, save for marine influenced areas of western Mackinac County where the beaches along US-2 may struggle to get much past the low 70s. Pattern Forecast: Generally higher surface pressure remains in place through the first half of Sunday; however, some changes are in the offing as an elongated cold front draped from near Hudson Bay southwestward into the mid-MS Valley at the start of the period will trek northwest to southeast across northern Michigan during the day.
253 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Currently have an upper high spanning across the Southern Plains with an upper low over the Northeast CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Ohio Valley with lee troughing continuing to strengthen. Large upper high is expected to very slowly lift north through Sun and also strengthen with it centered over Eastern KS/Western MO by Sun afternoon and will remain there through Mon.
(Through Saturday) As upper-level ridging begins moving in from the west, we should expect mostly clear skies as synoptic-scale subsidence dominates. Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s. 12Z models have this wave trending further south and have followed suit by trending the highest pops further south and into the Gulf waters.
338 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure currently over the Ohio Valley will remain in control through the weekend while slowly shifting towards the Mid Atlantic coast.
1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues this afternoon and tomorrow As the mid to upper-level high pressure remains anchored over the Southern Plains, a warm and moist air mass will continue to be advected into South Texas. This will promote warmer than normal temperatures, which when combined with the available moisture will lead to dangerous heat index values.
214 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Key points: - Temperatures will moderate this weekend behind a cold front, while smoke/haze will return.
For our area, rainfall amounts have decreased slightly with a very slight trend further west with the highest amounts.
High pressure in the central North Atlantic has begun to strengthen, and winds have increased in response. From synopsis, strengthening high pressure over the eastern United States and a tropical wave will bring freshening easterly breezes and another round of unsettled weather today through Sunday.
407 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 While a cold front continues to work through Southwestern Montana today, high pressure will build in across the plains.
(Today and tonight) The upper high will be centered over Kansas and Oklahoma through tonight and will shift a bit farther northeast by Sunday. The exception will be over far southwest counties where a Heat Advisory will be in effect, as temperatures will be a little cooler over this area.
634 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Expecting a fairly quiet weekend with the upper ridge parked over Oklahoma/Missouri. Heights/850 temperatures only decrease a bit, so expect high temperatures a degree or two cooler than yesterday. It will still be quite hot though, especially closer to the ridge out east, so we've opted to issue a Heat Advisory for Scurry and Mitchell Counties this afternoon. Not much change in the upper pattern keeps Sunday's weather nearly identical, although may be a smidge cooler with the ridge nudging a little more eastward. The low/mid levels are quite dry, keeping precipitation chances nill this weekend.
444 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Key points: - Temperatures will moderate this weekend behind a cold front, while smoke/haze will return.
701 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley today will move east tonight into Sunday.
Otherwise prefrontal trough working it's way through the forecast area and should be through KGFK and KFAR within the next few hours, with the cold front still situated further back to the west. Much cooler conditions expected into Sunday with highs into the 70s.
542 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure builds across the region today and pushes offshore tonight.
853 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 While a cold front continues to work through Southwestern Montana today, high pressure will build in across the plains.
Quiet but much warmer conditions will be seen across the area today and tonight as humidity levels slowly increase.
631 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Today through Sunday) Upper ridge currently centered near Oklahoma City, with an upper low off the southern California coast. At the surface, the old frontal boundary appears to now be to our north, with high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The upper high drifts a bit northeast over the next 36 hours, to be centered near the Missouri-Kansas border by Sunday evening.
718 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 A mid to upper level ridge axis will deepen over the central Great Lakes during the taf period. This will allow temperatures to peak in the upper-70s, challenging 80 degrees in many places, under mostly sunny skies (filtering through wildfire smoke aloft) with the upper-level ridging settling in.
1020 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Showery and cool conditions expected across the region today as a low pressure system gradually moves away from our area.
310 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Large dome of high pressure dominates much of the weather across the southern high plains and centered across Oklahoma. Shower activity across the lower elevations will be less than yesterday, with mainly isolated showers over the adjacent plains and a bit more numerous further north towards the Wyoming border.
932 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley today will move east tonight into Sunday.
Dry and hot conditions will prevail today as highs climb into the upper 90s to the lower 100s. This high has strengthened since last night and shifted east. Under near full insolation today of our warm airmass afternoon highs are expected to top out a little warmer than yesterday.
936 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure currently over the Ohio Valley will remain in control through the weekend while slowly shifting towards the Mid Atlantic coast.
726 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Today and tonight) Key Message: Dry weather continues with warmer temps starting today. Discussion: Dry weather continues as a strong ridge remains anchored over the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure dominates the Eastern U. With ridging overhead and sunny skies, highs this afternoon will return to near normal in the mid to upper 80s in the Valley.
30 Previous Discussion: /Through Sunday/ An Excessive Heat Warning will remain in place all weekend, thanks to the intense heat provided by a dominant ridge centered over the Southern Plains.
637 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Today and tonight) The persistent dome of high pressure continues its dominance over our pattern.
728 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure currently over the Ohio Valley will remain in control through the weekend while slowly shifting towards the Mid Atlantic coast.
949 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 A dome of high pressure centered over the central US will help keep dry conditions present through the weekend.
559 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Today and tonight) The large upper high will continue to bring excessive heat over the southern plains Saturday. A weak lee trough will turn modest winds to southwest over western and central Oklahoma this afternoon.
619 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Currently have an upper high spanning across the Southern Plains with an upper low over the Northeast CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Ohio Valley with lee troughing continuing to strengthen. Large upper high is expected to very slowly lift north through Sun and also strengthen with it centered over Eastern KS/Western MO by Sun afternoon and will remain there through Mon.
Winds have mostly transitioned to the E/SE already this morning, as the ridge axis is pushed north with the approaching tropical wave from the east.
(Today through Sunday) An upper level high pressure system will continue to build over the region during the period. Thus, the combination of the upper ridge and limited moisture will preclude significant precipiation.
720 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Showery and cool conditions expected across the region today as a low pressure system gradually moves away from our area.
(Now through Sunday) Just like that the ridge is back and temperatures are soaring once again. The upper level ridge has built back into the area. The forecast today will be fairly similar to yesterday and with the strength of the ridge rain chances are zero. It is not common for us to issue heat advisories for the high temperatures (usually we issue them for high heat indices) but here we are with a heat advisory for high temperatures up to 104 degrees across southeastern Mississippi. Sunday will be similar, but could be a few degrees cooler as stronger easterly winds begin to develop as an easterly wave enters the southern Gulf. This will result in a little less vertical mixing leading to temperatures to stay a few degrees cooler and dewpoints a few degrees warmer.
/Issued 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023/ /Through Sunday/ An Excessive Heat Warning will remain in place all weekend, thanks to the intense heat provided by a dominant ridge centered over the Southern Plains.
546 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Large dome of high pressure dominates much of the weather across the southern high plains and centered across Oklahoma. Shower activity across the lower elevations will be less than yesterday, with mainly isolated showers over the adjacent plains and a bit more numerous further north towards the Wyoming border.
542 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Today) The heat will continue to build across the region today as the upper ridge strengthens and becomes centered overhead, with high temperatures in the upper 90s and 100s for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Have kept the Heat Advisory for northwest Arkansas, though some of the higher dewpoint air could advect into those areas as well with the westerly component to the wind expected this afternoon, increasing heat indices there as well.
627 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper high will be centered over Kansas and Oklahoma through tonight and will shift a bit farther northeast by Sunday. The exception will be over far southwest counties where a Heat Advisory will be in effect, as temperatures will be a little cooler over this area.
517 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Higher heights continue to be centered over the Missouri River Basin with ridging extending aloft across Wyoming. This will block any impacts with the remnants of Hurricane Hilary to the west coast along with another upper level low nearing the Pacific northwest. An upper level low looks to push across north of the CWA flattening the pattern becoming more zonal. This in return will decrease the convergence aloft weakening the high to the southeast. The PFJ will be the biggest influencer on how far south the upper level low will dip and thus, what impacts to the CWA it will have.
1019 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure builds across the region today and pushes offshore tonight.
540 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 While a cold front continues to work through Southwestern Montana today, high pressure will build in across the plains.
1001 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 A mild and quiet start to this beautiful Saturday morning with temperatures in the low 80s areawide.
636 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Today through Sunday) An upper level high pressure system will continue to build over the region during the period. Thus, the combination of the upper ridge and limited moisture will preclude significant precipiation.
The sprawling upper level ridge of high pressure centered over OK/AR will continue to provide strong subsidence over the region, maintaining daytime and nighttime temperatures that are anywhere from 10-15 degrees above normal. Grass fires remain a concern, obviously, given the low afternoon relative humidities and bone dry fuels.
1202 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Expecting a fairly quiet weekend with the upper ridge parked over Oklahoma/Missouri. Heights/850 temperatures only decrease a bit, so expect high temperatures a degree or two cooler than yesterday. It will still be quite hot though, especially closer to the ridge out east, so we've opted to issue a Heat Advisory for Scurry and Mitchell Counties this afternoon. Not much change in the upper pattern keeps Sunday's weather nearly identical, although may be a smidge cooler with the ridge nudging a little more eastward. The low/mid levels are quite dry, keeping precipitation chances nill this weekend.
249 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 A warmer and sunnier day is expected for Sunday as upper level low pressure system finally moves away from our area.
Advertised heat wave has arrived as the center of the upper ridge advects out of central Oklahoma and strengthens into the vicinity of Kansas City Sunday afternoon. Winds to veer overnight as high pressure slides across the area while to the north a weakening front sinks southward.
1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper high will be centered over Kansas and Oklahoma through tonight and will shift a bit farther northeast by Sunday. The exception will be over far southwest counties where a Heat Advisory will be in effect, as temperatures will be a little cooler over this area.
An outside chance for a shower over the lower Atchafalaya Basin with the interaction of the land/sea breeze.
1238 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Currently have an upper high spanning across the Southern Plains with an upper low over the Northeast CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Ohio Valley with lee troughing continuing to strengthen. Large upper high is expected to very slowly lift north through Sun and also strengthen with it centered over Eastern KS/Western MO by Sun afternoon and will remain there through Mon.
(Tonight) A dangerously hot and steamy day is well underway across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with temperatures running up to 11 degrees warmer than they were this time 24 hours ago. (Sunday through Saturday) Dangerous heat will continue to be the main story across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through the work week as an expansive upper level ridge wobbles over the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
256 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday) Another dry forecast in store as a broad ridge of high pressure centered over the Southern Plains will continue to be the main player for our weather. Daytime highs on Sunday will range from mid/upr 80s in the higher elevations of north GA to the lwr/mid 90s across much of central GA. The humidity will also begin to increase a bit as the low lvl winds turn more southeast.
Discussion: The large upper ridge over the central states will continue to build east over the region, keeping things dry for the short term period.
336 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues, with slightly cooler temperatures Sunday for portions of northeast Nebraska.
241 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Upper level high centered over the Central Plains will slowly drift north over the next 24 hours. An upper level high will remain centered over the central US thru Tue. By Wed, latest data shows an increase in monsoon moisture affecting the higher terrain which will lead to a chc of aftn tstms. Thus, should see an increasing tstm coverage over the higher terrain with some activity over portions of nern CO as well. Meanwhile, a cold front is fcst to move across nern CO Thu night into Fri. This front will finally bring cooler temps and may enhance tstm development on Fri.
Attention later tonight shifts to the south and west as a H5 wave moves through the upper ridge.
(This evening through Sunday) The large, dominant dome of high pressure aloft has taken control of the weather pattern across a majority of the Plains States and Southeast. The ridge will only strengthen with time, with rising upper heights and zero chances of rain through the short-term period. As of midday, temperatures were already in the lower 90s across the southern counties on the way to upper 90s by this afternoon. Following a clear and calm night tonight, upper heights will continue to increase during the day on Sunday as the ridge strengthens to 600 decameters over the Great Plains.
TFJ A cold front moved through NE Montana overnight and brought gusty NW winds to the forecast area. Temperatures will be much cooler today with highs mainly in the 70s. Montana will be in SW flow aloft for several days with an upper level high over the central US and an upper trough over the Pacific Coast.