Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Water vapor movie loops show an impressive upper low centered in nw KS and moving slowly to the northeast. Meanwhile, a warm front extended from northern OK to southern MO, with a cold front across the western high plains. Today and tonight: Forecast soundings indicate warm/moist air advection across the dvn cwa ahead of the upper low that tracks slowly to northern Nebraska later in the day. There will be more clouds compared to yesterday so temps should be cooler, in the 70s to around 80. The bulk of the severe storms look to be well to our west closer to the upper low so if any severe storms forms in our cwa it should be isolated.
Freeze Warning allowed to expire at 8 am as temperatures warm above freezing with abundant sunshine. A few thin high clouds in the region with low level ridging centered over the area building east through the day.
There is still high confidence for the high pressure ridge to build into the region on Friday that will cutoff the wildfire smoke. Weak disturbances passing through the ridge on Friday along with much warmer temperatures and sufficient moisture in place points to isolated thunderstorms development Friday afternoon. The ridge of high pressure builds over the region this weekend. Westerly winds associated with this ridge should help to push out the smoke from the region.
258 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023 A low pressure system developing along the Carolina coast will move northeast over the Outer Banks on Friday and Friday night, but with weak high pressure persisting in our area.
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible today and chances will persist into the weekend, mainly in the higher terrain of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona.
1219 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (Today through Friday Night) Warm and humid but otherwise generally uneventful conditions will persist throughout the remainder of the week prior to the approach of a weak cold front this weekend. Clear skies, along with gradual midlevel ridging and a resumption of WAA/onshore moisture transport, will allow for highs to rise into the upper 80s across the majority of the area.
Discussion: Upper low across middle Tennessee at mid afternoon today with temperatures in the upper 70s. An upper low was located over middle Tennessee this afternoon and will move slowly east northeast tonight. The weak low or upper trough lifts north Friday. High pressure will build southwest from east of the Appalachians tonight into Friday.
138 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023 Aviation - Showers Along a Cold Front for Friday Good model consensus exists for showers on Friday ahead of and along a cold front that will push through the region.
(Today through Friday) Mid-level dry air is moving into the area from the west this morning on the backside of the exiting upper trough and associated weak surface front. Pressure gradient remains weak so advection of drier air in the low levels is minimal. Despite the frontal passage, temperatures will actually be slightly warmer today given the drier mid-levels holding down afternoon convective development. Thermal profiles will remain favorable for downbursts capable of gusty winds in excess of 30-40 mph, but warmer mid-level temperatures (weaker lapse rates) will reduce the potential for hail growth. 925mb temps will be on the increase to 23-25C by Friday which will be sufficient for areas to warm into the low 90s. Strong capping will suppress convective development and this will allow highs to overachieve guidance as upper-ridging begins to expand across the western Gulf of Mexico.
With another bout of low stratus and patchy fog developing across the area due to the very moist airmass, lows tonight will fall into the low and middle 60s. Ridging aloft will increase across the region on Friday. Humid conditions will persist with highs ranging from the lower 80s to lower 90s. However, coverage is forecast to be a little less due to the aforementioned increased ridging aloft across the CWA.
145 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023 High pressure will provide for mostly sunny skies to much of the area today. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will develop later Friday afternoon and into Friday night as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. Still seeing a signal that inverted trough/low level convergence axis will further develop across Kentucky and extend up into the lower Scioto Valley and northeast Kentucky by the end of the afternoon, and may be the impetus for a shower or two. The inverted trough will shift slowly northwest through tonight along with a continued increase in lower level moisture. A better chance for showers and embedded thunderstorms will then spread into our northwest later Friday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
1152 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) A closed upper low will continue to meander around Baja today as a ridge extends up from Mexico across TX and NM. The ridge is expected to strengthen Friday keeping the low at bay. Friday will be a little warmer for most locations but a cold front will blow into the area during the afternoon so nrn locations behind the front will not reach the same highs as today.
Upper level low and secondary cold front will continue to push through the region this evening. Look for cloudy skies and breezy winds as a result, along with cooler temperatures. Mainly blended NBM with NBM 25th to get the lows for tonight. If clouds clear out sooner than expected, some sites in the west could get below freezing. High pressure then takes over for the rest of Friday.
Additionally, a weak midlevel trough overhead has helped spur the development of showers through the day thus far. The best chances for any thunderstorm development this afternoon will be largely across the western and southern periphery of the CWA where SBCAPE values will continue to build into the 1000-1500 J/kg outside of the cooler and stable wedge airmass.
1221 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (Today and tonight) Weak ridging will reside over the area today in advance of a closed mid/upper low over the Baja Peninsula, with an upper trough situated over the Upper Midwest states. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today than yesterday, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
A second cold front extends from near International Falls southwestward into South Dakota then westward to southeast Montana. There is a chance for wildfire smoke to make it to the surface behind a cold front Friday morning. Discussion: The main forecast concerns were timing of precipitation and smoke reaching the surface behind a cold front on Friday morning.
A weak upper low was located over west Tennessee and will move east across the state during the day and evening. Low level southeast flow was increasing ahead of the upper low with clouds increasing to the south and southeast over the Carolinas and North Georgia. A diurnal trend in convection is anticipated with drier conditions tonight into Friday morning as the trough axis begins to shift eastward.
215 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023 After our dry period into tonight, a line of showers is ahead Friday and Friday night as a cold front approaches.
(This afternoon through Friday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough just of the Baja coast, promoting weak ridging over Texas and southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. While mesoanalysis shows the area capped at 16Z, this should erode in the next couple of hours, w/convection developing over the higher terrain, then developing east w/the dryline. Friday gets a little more interesting as a cold front approaches the area.
On Friday, southerly winds and an upper ridge will start a warming trend.
There is a growing chance that general subsidence behind the cold frontal passage will result in smokey conditions near the ground into Friday. MH (Issued 400 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023) Today through Friday: Low pressure will track across Ontario and the nrn Great Lakes through tnt with the trailing compact upper low reaching wrn Lake Superior at 12Z Fri. The cold frontal passage will occur tnt over srn WI, possibly lingering into Fri AM over far se WI. Nwly winds, cold advection, and stratocumulus clouds will then prevail the remainder of the day as the upper low moves across nrn WI.
322 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023 An area of high pressure will slide eastward through Friday, but still have enough influence to keep our weather rain free.
A cold front moves through the area late tonight into Friday, bringing our next chance for showers and storms. Widespread smoke layer continues across the region this morning, with latest RAP smoke products showing only a narrow period without it overnight as the cold front begins to move into the area. Otherwise, warmer temperatures will be most notable west of I-55 where a southwest wind flow becomes more prevalent. The aforementioned cold front will approach from the west late tonight into Friday, spreading light rain across the area.
The end result will be an overcast and muggy night as clouds will prevent temperatures from dropping off too much, with lows remaining in the low to mid 60s in most locations. Lower visibilities due to cloud cover may be an issue on ridgetops late tonight into early Friday morning which is something we will have to watch.
Temperatures will drop into the 30s and 40s tonight, with some locations getting close to freezing across the far east. Normally this time of year brings some big wrapped up upper lows that produce mountain snow and severe storms in the plains, but we don't see any of this type of activity advertised for the next 7 days.
Upper level ridge remains over NorCal proving warm and dry conditions with Valley high temperatures around 10 degrees above normal in the low to mid 90's.
In the upper levels, low pressure centered in the Upper Mississippi Valley will progress southeast into the Great Lakes tonight through tomorrow night. In response, low pressure at the surface will drag a northeast to southwest oriented cold front from southern Canada through the Central Plains.
Normally this time of year brings some big wrapped up upper lows that produce mountain snow and severe storms in the plains, but we don't see any of this type of activity advertised for the next 7 days.
* A cold front pushing through the area will result in cooler temperatures for Friday and low temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s Friday night.
Models show a cold front moving across the area Friday which will continue to aid in the development of showers/storms. Severe storms will be possible again Friday mainly along and ahead of the cold front where moist airmass will be and better instability is expected. The timing of this front will have an impact on this area but right now it looks like the highest severe potential in the fa will be south central/southeast OK.
Convective vigor within this band should be limited since steeper lapse rates are confined to closer to the low track to our north, and deep subtropical moisture plume will result in moist adiabatic profiles in the mid-upper levels.
905 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (Issued 905 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023) As the cold front moves west to east across the area tonight, still expect a line of showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder to move through. AirNow shows the air quality levels dropping into the Unhealthy category across MN/IA behind the cold front.
Additional shower and storm development may occur along the cold front that will sweep across the area Friday afternoon and evening, but limited instability and surface convergence will likely inhibit severe weather along the actual front itself.
A line of showers in association with a surface cold front will continue to push east across the remainder of the forecast area this afternoon, with a few thunderstorms possible over the far eastern portion of the area after 4 PM. However, smoke aloft looks to stick around into Friday evening as it rotates around the upper low as it moves across northern Minnesota late tonight and into the eastern Great Lakes Friday night.
Further inland, above average temperatures will persist as high pressure persists over the area. Expecting similar conditions tomorrow as ridge of high pressure continues to reside over the the western CONUS and upper low currently located over Baja weakens. Persistent high pressure helps reinforce the low level inversion (marine layer), so expecting another round of stratus and patchy fog overnight into Friday morning.
526 PM MDT Thu May 18 2023 Latest analysis shows the upper low tracking southeastward out of Manitoba into northwestern Minnesota. At the surface, cool high pressure is sliding southward out of Saskatchewan across eastern MT/western ND. The low level cold advection and a tightening of the surface pressure gradient have produced breezy/windy conditions this afternoon. Although the areas with thicker smoke may see temperatures remain a little warmer, some areas, especially over parts of northwestern South Dakota (where the smoke is expected to decrease the most tonight) may be cool enough for patchy frost late tonight/early Friday. Friday will be dry with slightly cooler than average temperatures.
This is likely due to the southwestern flank of an Atlantic ridge bulging slightly westward into Florida. A mid and upper level trough aligned over the southeastern United States and Florida along with essentially no inhibition and ample CApe would suggest greater convective coverage. Temperatures are settling downwards through the mid 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. Short Term Update - Winds will remain quite light through the overnight with most places eventually turning easterly due to the ridge off to our east and an exhaling mainland.
CAPE values are generally between 500-1000 J/Kg with the higher values across the southern portion of the cwa. Look for overnight lows in the low to mid 60s with a southerly wind kicking in ahead of the next front. Friday will start out dry, but a trough currently set up over the Great Lakes will push a cold front across Middle Tennesse late Friday night. While a few pop-up storms will be possible during the afternoon, a more organized line will push through along the cold front Friday night.
In the upper levels, a compact low was evident on water vapor imagery dropping south through the Northern Plains, while an attendant cold front was exiting far southern North Dakota this afternoon. Breezy northwest winds were observed behind the front, as well as widespread cloud cover and an area of showers closer to the center of the upper low. Through tonight, the upper low will move southeast through northern Minnesota. Rain chances will translate southeast overnight with the track of the upper low, exiting northwest Minnesota by early Friday morning. While the coldest temperatures should remain in western North Dakota near the center of the high, lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s are still expected.
615 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough just of the Baja coast, promoting weak ridging over Texas and southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. While mesoanalysis shows the area capped at 16Z, this should erode in the next couple of hours, w/convection developing over the higher terrain, then developing east w/the dryline. Friday gets a little more interesting as a cold front approaches the area.
Progressive flow aloft will allow the current features to continue moving to the east while an upper low and attendant frontal surface swing from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes. Winds will keep rotating to the southwest with a gradual increase in moisture as the cold front approaches from the northwest. Temperature wise, lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s while afternoon highs will probably reach the low 80s.
639 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Shower and storm chances return Friday as a strong cold front sags southeast across the Mid-South. Behind the front, expect afternoon temperatures to be in the low to mid 70s through the weekend. However, temperatures will likely be in the low to mid 80s with rain chances by the middle of the week.
Blended in NMB90th for hourly temps over the next few hours as the clouds have kept the area a tad warmer but no change to overnight lows with thinning of clouds expected. Discussion: Upper low across middle Tennessee at mid afternoon today with temperatures in the upper 70s. An upper low was located over middle Tennessee this afternoon and will move slowly east northeast tonight. The weak low or upper trough lifts north Friday. High pressure will build southwest from east of the Appalachians tonight into Friday.
and into the Gulf of Mexico while weak high pressure remains over southern Florida.
825 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Smoke aloft will remain widespread through Friday, but will be less visible as clouds increase ahead of a cold front.
The upslope flow combined with lift from an upper level trough near the Four Corners will continue to produce rain showers and weak storms through at least this evening. Therefore, will maintain the high PoPs through this evening. Highs over the northeast Colorado will be in the mid to upper 60s, though areas near the foothills may be a little cooler due to cloud cover.
Key Messages: - Shower and non-severe thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through.
Temperatures this evening are in the lower 70s to lower 80s. Expect dry weather for the remainder of the evening and overnight hours with lows Friday morning in the low to mid 60s. ARS Shower and storm chances return Friday as a strong cold front sags southeast across the Mid-South. Behind the front, expect afternoon temperatures to be in the low to mid 70s through the weekend. However, temperatures will likely be in the low to mid 80s with rain chances by the middle of the week.
725 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023 A low pressure system developing along the Carolina coast will move northeast over the Outer Banks on Friday and Friday night, but with weak high pressure persisting in our area.
This should keep overnight lows on the mild side in the lower 60s for most spots, and possibly upper 50s in a few.
1033 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023 A low pressure system developing along the Carolina coast will move northeast over the Outer Banks on Friday and Friday night, but with weak high pressure persisting in our area.
A weak high pressure system in the Northeast Pacific continues to affect Northwest California.
622 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Smoke aloft will remain widespread through Friday, but will be less visible as clouds increase ahead of a cold front.
950 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023 An area of high pressure east of Cape Cod will extend its ridge west into the Mid Atlantic Region, providing fair, dry weather across the Commonwealth through the day Friday.
711 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 A mid/upper trough over Manitoba was digging southeast into the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley area this afternoon. A cold front extended from this system south and southwestward from the arrowhead of Minnesota to the Central High Plains.
Upper-level ridging will remain in place across our region as we move into the overnight hours. This will help keep temperatures fairly mild across the area tonight with lows ranging from the lower to mid 60s. As we move into Friday, a large upper-level trough will move through the Great Lakes. An associated cold front at the surface will then extend from the Upper Midwest into the central Plains. This cold front will begin to bring shower and thunderstorm chances to our northwest zones by Friday morning, eventually evolving into the MCV before continuing to push to the east.
A small area of low pressure in the Mid-South is moving eastward. A return to dry conditions is expected for the remainder of the night as high pressure moves into the region and return flow lifts dew points to around 60 shortly after sunrise. The one likely chance of decent rainfall in the 7 day forecast is late tomorrow afternoon through the night as a cold front sweeps through the Quad State.
A sfc cold front is currently sweeping southward across our CWA. Also, a couple of afternoon showers may develop across our northeast in association with this passing sfc front and and upper trough swinging down across the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota. The low levels remain pretty dry however, but if any activity materializes it should be fairly short lived. Cold air advection in the lower levels this afternoon and evening will help usher in a much cooler air mass tonight. Some of our eastern zones will see increasing cloud cover toward daybreak which would help keep temperatures warmer as well.
724 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023 Mainly dry weather will continue through Friday as high pressure slides east of the area.
An upper low was over southern Manitoba, tracking east-southeast. A cold front was located from southwest Kansas to north-central Iowa with little convergence along it. Showers and a few isolated storms gradually pass over the terminals as a weak cold front slides through overnight into early Friday morning.
1058 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023 An area of high pressure east of Cape Cod will extend its ridge west into the Mid Atlantic Region, providing fair, dry weather across the Commonwealth through the day Friday.
A weak cold front will move south through our area tomorrow morning into the early afternoon. The quicker the cold front moves south through your location tomorrow, the nicer your day will be with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, a little warmer in our southern zones where FROPA isn't expected until mid/late afternoon.
608 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023 Mainly dry weather will continue through Friday as high pressure slides east of the area.
Moisture in place across the region will continue to fuel showers and thunderstorms each day, especially over the high terrain and adjacent valley areas.
An upper level trough will swing across the Northern Plains/Great Lakes region today, sending a cold front south into the Big Country this afternoon and through the rest of the area during the overnight hours. Ahead of the front, hot conditions are expected with highs this afternoon generally in the low to mid 90s. Cooler temperatures will filter in behind the front with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Farther inland, above average temperatures will persist as high pressure persists over the area.
402 AM EDT Fri May 19 2023 A cold front will approach and bring widespread showers to the region today, perhaps a brief thunderstorm as well.
- Cool temperatures today/tonight, with a warming trend beginning Saturday Early this morning, a cold front was slowly working south across Kansas and an upper-level low was riding along the KS/OK border. Cooler air will filter in behind the front.
Additionally a cold front is draped south across the area bringing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms today. Highs this afternoon will be near normal, topping out in the low to mid 70s. On Saturday, temperatures will remain a bit cooler with northwest flow and continued cold air advection. Temperatures will be quite similar to Friday with highs topping out in the low to mid 70s with ample sunshine.
1157 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) Upper level ridging along with a weak pressure pattern at the surface will hold through Friday night. With the upper level ridging, no significant shower activity is expected. A northern stream short wave is expected to dig to the southeast and cut into the upper level ridge and help push a surface frontal boundary into the forecast area Saturday afternoon.
A rather diffuse and slow-moving cold front will approach the region this afternoon into today, bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the region. The morning and early afternoon hours will be mainly dry, though a weak prefrontal trough may kick off some isolated showers in the early afternoon. Dew point temperatures will creep back into the lower to middle 60s as well. As the cold front moves into the region overnight, low temperatures will fall into the 50s.