Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Further upstream, a large low pressure system is evident across the Pacific Northwest. Above normal high temperatures will prevail this afternoon, however ensemble suites remain in agreement negative height anomalies associated with a trough along the west coast will translate into a gradual cooling trend through the week. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient will tighten across the Desert Southwest as the aforementioned trough drops southward along the California coast.
We'll have a lull in activity until after midnight when an upper level low slides in and brings another round of showers and storms.
653 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure provides dry weather through Monday.
1022 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure will dominate the weather in the Ohio Valley for the next several days, offering seasonably warm temperatures and abundant sunshine.
619 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) A weak upper level ridge stretches across the southern tier of states with a closed low over the NW. A trough associated with this low will rotate onto the West Coast Tuesday as the ridge strengthens across NM and TX. Trough will begin to move into the Great Basin Tuesday night. Temperatures will be much warmer Tuesday under the ridge with widespread highs in the low to mid 90s. Scattered showers and storms developed before noon over the higher elevations from the Davis Mtns to near GDP.
TEMPOs included for interior terminals, which have the highest chance for seeing VIS/CIG reductions due to strong storms.
Today will once again been warm and dry under high pressure. An approaching cold front Wednesday will return a period of light precipitation and below average temperatures. Mid-lvl clouds will continue track through the Ohio River Valley early this morning with upper-lvl flow from the west/northwest as a ridge extends in the middle of the CONUS. Hi-Res guidance suggest low-lvl cloud formation to develop along the ridges with southeastly flow and noted boundary moisture. Dry, quiet conditions will continue under high pressure. Precipitation chances return early Wednesday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
Temperatures will remain warmer than normal for the period as H850 temps continue in the 15-20C range. GEFS/ENS ens agree on the amplified ridge with the crest well into Canada and the Northern Plains under the ridge Wednesday morning. At the same time, a high pressure system will be to our northeast. This ridge will become more positive tilted as it pushes east. This is due to a low pressure system over western Canada/Pacific Northwest along with the troughing pattern over the western US. This low will push north and reattach to the main flow well north to us in Canada. By the end of the week, this deep trough remains fairly stationary over the western US into the weekend.
1107 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023 Currently a weak 500 mb trough will continue to move over central and eastern Kansas the rest of the afternoon and evening. This stagnant mid level trough and weak flow aloft will continue to bring showers and isolated storms overnight and into the day Tuesday, mainly along and west of a line from Russell to Arkansas City. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, a trough will continue to sit along the west coast with weak high amplitude ridging set up across Mid-America, while a trough over Ontario sweeps southeast over the northeast CONUS. However, consensus is we remain under weak upper ridging with little flow aloft to keep storms disorganized.
218 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023 High pressure will keep conditions dry across the Mid Atlantic through the middle of this week.
Tomorrow will be warmer than today due the decreased cloud cover.
348 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023 A late spring temperature roller-coaster starts today as readings climb into the lower 80s this afternoon. The warmer air develops within diffuse high pressure allowing nearly full sun through patchy high clouds and the lingering high altitude smoke layer. Mild temperatures then hold tonight before taking a downward slide with the passage of a strong cold front early Wednesday. Rainfall is supported in this phase of the system by mid afternoon peak heating, strong 850-700mb Fgen, and strong DCVA within the mid level trough.
850 PM PDT Mon May 22 2023 A trough of low pressure deepening over the West Coast will keep a deep marine layer in place all week. It will be cooler in all areas, and also bring gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts each afternoon and evening. The high at San Diego was 64. The high at Santa Ana was 68. The high at Ramona was 76. The high at Ontario was 80. The high at Riverside was 81. The high at Palm Springs was 102. The high at Thermal was 100. Temperature trends the rest of the week will be downward as a trough deepens along the West Coast. Today was the last day of thunderstorms over the San Bernardino Mountains and High Deserts as drier air will move in with the trough this week.
Despite the drier air behind the front, temperatures will be warmer thanks to the afternoon sunshine on Wednesday.
155 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023 High pressure will keep conditions dry across the Mid Atlantic through the middle of this week.
An upper level ridge over the Northern Rockies continues to bring weak northwest flow into the Northern Plains. The upper level ridge is going to settle over the Northern Plains tomorrow leading to temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s. The low level thermal ridge will span across south central North Dakota where the warmest temperatures are expected. A warm front will lift through the region tomorrow causing thunderstorms out west. A back door cold front will move in tomorrow evening bringing breezy winds and maybe initiating convection in the evening. Troughing across Western CONUS will continue to bring in southwesterly flow aloft to the Northern Plains. A back door cold front could keep initiating storms Wednesday morning.
The upper-level low situated over the Pacific Northwest corner splits, with the bulk of the energy associated with the low retrograding back north and east into Canada. The remainder of the energy propagates southwestward, leading to the development of a quasi-stationary, positively-tilted trough over western CONUS, which remains in place through the work week.
1046 PM MDT Mon May 22 2023 Western NOAM ridge will slowly push east this week as active SW flow ensues. Upper trough will remain anchored in the western CONUS supporting several weak impulses into the region. Upper ridge will continue to shift east with semi-unsettled SW flow setting up Tues, biasing east some each day.
With mid-level high pressure building and deep moisture decreasing, there's not going on in the short term period.
High temperatures today will reach into the 70s for southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 80s for northeast Florida.
/DL/ A dry pattern will continue for much of the forecast period as persistent troughing aids in northerly flow across the area, wrapping dry air around the base of the trough.
1218 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) A weak upper level ridge stretches across the southern tier of states with a closed low over the NW. A trough associated with this low will rotate onto the West Coast Tuesday as the ridge strengthens across NM and TX. Trough will begin to move into the Great Basin Tuesday night. Temperatures will be much warmer Tuesday under the ridge with widespread highs in the low to mid 90s. Scattered showers and storms developed before noon over the higher elevations from the Davis Mtns to near GDP.
Strong onshore flow will keep a cooler air mass and deep marine layer depth in place across the region. Low clouds and fog are becoming well-entrenched across the area again this evening, spreading into the lower valley areas already. A cooler air mass is likely to linger with the best cooling expected across the interior portions of the area.
312 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023 Not much going on in the short term across eastern Kentucky, as a strong ridge of high pressure is firmly entrenched over the region.
Have similar temperature forecasts for Wednesday and Wednesday night, but Wednesday's highs might end up a couple degrees cooler where rains develop.
Aloft, we see a sharpening, almost Omega-like block look to the pattern, as troffing West and East sandwiches ridging across the Central U. There is little forcing available for the returning humidity, save for the weak pressure ebbs via isallobaric tendency as the aforementioned perturbations occur; maybe a little south and west, closer to a weak opening of a developing low pressure wave aloft. That high pressure mentioned begins to drop dew points again late Wednesday-Wednesday night, ushered in on the near surface northeasterlies that become predominant during this time.
Johns counties over the next couple of hours near a surface frontal zone across NE FL and under a passing mid level short wave trough. Precip resurrects itself near the coast and expands inland through midday with intensification as yet another mid/upper level short wave trough approaches from the west. Mild low temps will range in the mid/upper 60s well inland to the lower 70s. (Tuesday through Wednesday night) With the cold front remaining stalled over the area Tuesday, precipitation chances remain likely widespread, with locally heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms expected. Higher precipitation chances will exist in Northeast Florida as low pressure forms near central Florida.
While there isn't a well defined lifting mechanism in place to generate convection, some of the higher res models have shown some moisture gradients and/or subtle areas of surface convergence across the region, and it may be just enough to squeeze out the isolated precipitation. An Omega-like blocking pattern will evolve across the CONUS by midweek as upper ridging extends from Mexico all the way to the northern Plains with flanking troughs on both coasts. This in conjugation with amplification of the upper ridge over the northern Plains will support a wave-breaking process with the resultant low spinning over the Southeast US and a high across the Midwest and the Great Lakes.
Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s. /NF/ Quiet conditions should begin to settle across most of the CWA starting late Tuesday night as the low pressure system continues to track east towards Georgia and portions of South Carolina.
Cool mid level temps and this low level moisture has allowed for some cumulus to develop across the region. High temps may be a degree or two warmer, with locations in the lower 80s.
A cold front is expected to approach from the north. It will be considerably cooler near Lake Michigan.
226 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023 Today will once again been warm and dry under high pressure. An approaching cold front Wednesday will return a period of light precipitation and below average temperatures. Mid-lvl clouds will continue track through the Ohio River Valley early this morning with upper-lvl flow from the west/northwest as a ridge extends in the middle of the CONUS. Hi-Res guidance suggest low-lvl cloud formation to develop along the ridges with southeastly flow and noted boundary moisture. Dry, quiet conditions will continue under high pressure. Precipitation chances return early Wednesday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
143 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023 High pressure will dominate the weather in the Ohio Valley for the next several days, offering seasonably warm temperatures and abundant sunshine. A backdoor cold front will progress through the area by late Wednesday, providing a reinforcing shot of milder, drier air.
More widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Wednesday as a cold front passes through the region. Elsewhere, high pressure will continue to be in control as dry conditions will continue through at least tonight. Flow will become west to southwesterly by Tuesday, which will advect warmer air into the region. This will help temperatures climb into the mid 70s to even the low 80s in the afternoon. High pressure will slowly begin to fall Wednesday as a cold front pushes southward into the area.
Latest model solutions also keep the higher precipitable water (PWAT) air, and weakness for shower development, just SW of the forecast area as well. Mesoscale processes and features, will continue to be the story for Wed/Thu, with most of the better low level moisture transport staying over the high plains and SW KS. Both the GFS/ECMWF suggest that weak upper ridging will remain across the plains for late in the week, as an "omega block" type pattern sets up, with a weak upper low over the SE US and another over the Rockies, with weak ridging in between.
A moisture starved cold front arrives Wednesday/Wednesday night. Upper level low develops along the east coast late week. Temperatures today will run near normal with highs in the lower 80s across the lowlands and the 70s across the mountains. Lows tonight will range from the 40s in the mountains to the 50s in the lowlands. High pressure and the ongoing dry spell will continue at the beginning of the forecast period, but a slightly more active pattern could be on the horizon. The formation of a mid-level trough along the spine of the Appalachians will allow for a surface cold front to venture into the area by the evening on Wednesday.
Ridging and southerly flow continues into Tuesday, which will be the hottest day in the short-term, and possibly the warmest day of the week. Temperatures in the 80s are expected for most unless you are within walking distance to Lake Superior, where it will be just slightly cooler in the 70s. Midday Tuesday, a stronger cold front is still on track to sweep southward, bringing a region of storms from the north through the afternoon and evening hours. Wednesday will be cool across the area, and especially cooler near the lake. A cold front will advance southward across the region this afternoon and tonight. The next period of stronger winds is expected tomorrow afternoon into Wednesday as a cold front sweeps south with thunderstorms and strong NE winds behind it.
404 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023 High pressure will move into Atlantic Canada today, bringing a mix of sun and clouds.
After Wednesday, broad high pressure dominates the Great Lakes region leaving us on the western side of it, enough to increase winds to become breezy out of the south to east through the rest of the week but likely not doing much else, with the better chances for sensible weather further west in the Dakotas.
Sfc ridging will remain N/NE of the region through the period which will provide fairly persistent easterly flow across the state.
It will be quite warm today with highs in the lower 80s.
1209 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Upper air analysis this morning showed a low amplitude ridge moving over northeastern Mexico and west Texas with west-northwesterly flow over Texas. Temperatures this afternoon are five to ten degrees warmer than 24 hours ago under mainly clear skies. Boundary layer flow will be from the southeast bringing warmer air to South Central Texas. Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be three to five degrees warmer than today. The mid-level ridge will amplify tonight and tomorrow turning the flow to northwesterly. We don't expect any significant change in the low levels with the warm moist airmass staying in place. This will lead to warm day with highs about five degrees warmer than today.
An upper level low will maintain cooler temperatures with varying degrees of cloud cover through Tuesday. Conditions will warm up a bit by the middle of the week as a ridge attempts to build into western WA/OR, but there is still some uncertainty regarding exact high temperatures.
(Today through Wednesday Night) The primary story today will be an amplifying upper trough over the Southeast U. and an approaching weak backdoor cold frontal boundary due into our region later this afternoon and evening. With the cooler upper levels and amplifying trough, expect a continuation of lower end POPs despite being on the drier side with upper level flow becoming more northwesterly/drier. The lower heights should allow for a bit steeper lapse rates (albeit modest in nature) so think this will be where the best potential for convection will reside especially along the surface boundary or any sea breeze that develops along the MS Gulf Coast.
1157 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023 Light southeast to south flow around high pressure will maintain dry conditions. The most recent RAP solution for vertically integrated smoke suggests the high altitude smoke overhead will remain quite thick through the night, thinning toward daybreak. Model soundings show mixing depths up to 6-7k feet which will support afternoon highs into the low 80s. Amplification of a mid level trough axis moving from northern Ontario into upstate New York/Quebec Tues night into Wednesday will drive a cold front south across the Great Lakes region.
425 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023 High pressure will cross the area today and exit the area to the east tonight.
A weak cold front will drop across the state on Wednesday afternoon.
Persistent omega blocking over central CONUS has resulted in persistent troughing along the eastern portion of the country. This has obliterated the western Atlantic ridge, which usually drives our easterly to southeasterly trades this time of year.
Early this morning, the residuals of a western Conus Rex block were shifting into the plains with more pronounced troughing and cyclonic flow enveloping the West Coast. Ensemble agreement is excellent that this pattern of sharp troughing and dampened heights aloft across the western Conus will continue through the weekend resulting in very typical late May weather conditions. Beyond the middle of the week, modest heights falls will gradually spread into the region though there is some uncertainty with respect to the depth of troughing entering the forecast area versus lifting into the Great Basin.
More widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Wednesday as a cold front passes through the region.
Wednesday through the weekend, the blocking pattern will persist, anchored by the strong upper ridge over the Northern Plains and a cutoff low over the southeast CONUS. Meanwhile, weak troughing will be present over the western CONUS but will struggle to push east given the presence of the block.
Tuesdays highs are expected to reach the lower to middle 80s for areas north of Highway 200, with middle to upper 80s to the south. The pattern at the start of the period is an upper level ridge over western ND and eastern MT with northwest flow aloft. The upper ridge gradually shifts east through the period and will see warmer than normal temperatures across the region through the period, with mainly east to southeasterly winds. Then, as a cold front moves across the region Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours, winds will shift to a predominantly easterly direction along with some potential for increasing rain/thunder chances.
-Rain and thunderstorms move in this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front and affect the region through Wednesday mid afternoon. Winds will be on the increase behind the front, with cooler temperatures expected. 20-30% chance areas within the valley could reach the lower 90s, but that will be dependent on how much smoke impacts the temperatures and how much cloud coverage there is before the cold front approaches this afternoon and evening. By the afternoon, a cold front starts to sweep down from Canada.
(Today through Wednesday) An inverted trough is currently situated to our immediate west, and this will provide the focus for isolated showers and perhaps a storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. After tonight, high pressure will expand across Middle Tennessee, keeping the atmosphere relatively dry and rain chances non- existent.
331 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023 (Issued 331 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023) Today through Wednesday: Today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with another lake breeze moving through during the afternoon. Attention then turns to a backdoor cold front that will move through late tonight into Wednesday morning. High temperatures Wednesday are expected to be around 10 to 20 degrees cooler than today in the 50s and 60s. With the backdoor cold front gusty northeast winds will be present throughout the day with gusts approaching 35 mph the closer you are to Lake Michigan. It won't be a nice day anyways with air temperatures and water temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
(Today through Wednesday) 500mb ridge builds over South Texas with subsidence and drying of the atmosphere increasing through Wednesday.
However, an H85 ridge situated over the northeast Atlantic states will get squeezed through the day today as troughing digs south out of Canada and a low pressure area develops northeast of the Bahamas.
348 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023 High pressure over the region will move east on Wednesday as a dry cold front crosses south during the afternoon and early evening.
Another day of solar insulation will help push temperatures a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. A mostly clear sky and calm winds overnight will allow for effective cooling, though with a warmer start temperatures will only cool into the upper 50s. MRM The mid-level pattern will continue with a ridge through the central CONUS and digging troughs along both coasts.
Temperatures-wise, another cool and partly to mostly cloudy day depending where in the forecast one is will be again relegated to only the low 70s across much of the area.
An upper-level ridge to the north is keeping the main storm track to our south.
A cooling trend will begin on Tuesday and persist through the remainder of the week in response to an upper level trough over the West Coast. (Today and tonight) A band of mid/high level clouds dropping southward into the North Bay early this morning are associated with a long-wave trough aloft. The aforementioned trough will sweep through the entire region by this afternoon and will allow for decent mixing of the boundary layer. In response to the cooling air mass aloft, temperatures across the interior will be slightly cooler today compared to previous days. While this troughing pattern supports the potential for convection across the northern and interior portions of the state, the probability of any development over the Bay Area/Central Coast remains low (<10%).
Temperatures throughout the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. The Keys remain in the col region for today with a low pressure system to the northeast of the Bahamas and high pressure centered over Nova Scotia with an extension of this ridge southwestward into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.
724 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023 Not much going on in the short term across eastern Kentucky, as a strong ridge of high pressure is firmly entrenched over the region.
Strong onshore flow will keep a cooler and deep marine layer in place across the region.
An upper level low is currently situated over the Pacific Northwest and will slowly move south during the work week. At the same time ridging will be in place over the northern plains. This weekend the low begins to open up and move inland.
A cold front will be approaching the area from the northeast this afternoon and evening associated with a decaying Cold Air Damming wedge across the Carolinas. This front will serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms into tonight while also ushering in a cooler, drier airmass in its wake. Any chance for stronger storms wanes quickly after sunset, particularly as the cold front progresses to the southwest of the area by mid to late evening. Tonight will be much cooler than prior nights, with lows falling into the upper 50's and lower 60's for all locations. Once again have leaned towards the cooler side of guidance with middle to upper 70's for highs.