Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some of the shower activity may further mature into thunderstorms during the remainder of the morning near the coast, while freezing levels near 3500 feet over Trinity County promote several inches of additional snowfall. Midlevel heights are forecast to rise tonight as the previously mentioned disturbance exits east and a ridge amplifies over the NERN PAC.
Westerly sfc flow will provide the majority of the Panhandles another warm day before the cold front moves through.
Dry conditions are forecast to return this week due to high pressure, which may allow for fog to return as well. After this storm system exits the region tonight, ensemble guidance and cluster analysis indicates that a ridge of high pressure will prevail over California this week. Blended model guidance shows a warming trend will commence this week as the ridge builds.
In fact, freezing temperatures during the morning hours will not even be an issue.
Today, an upper level ridge is forecasted to move over the area. Assuming the cloud cover moves through as forecasted, temperatures will be either similar or marginally warmer compared to yesterday as the full potential is suppressed by the cloud cover and remaining snow cover. Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler as colder air advects into the area with highs near the low 40's.
Omega block type pattern over the US with upper level ridge over the center of the country with troughs on both coasts. Trough across the west coast begins to shift east tonight leading to an increasing pressure gradient creating stronger southerly winds. Cold front will move through the region Monday evening leading to the potential for light rain or showers in the vicinity of the front.
An area of low pressure is developing along a stalled N-S boundary along the eastern coast of Florida.
The fog should quickly mix out late this morning and a beautiful day will develop under subsidence beneath an upper trough extending through the central CONUS.
Totals over the next 24 hours still remain in the 2 to 4 inches for most of the mountains, and an inch or two for the foothills and the higher hills into southeast Montana like the Wolf Mountains. Monday will generally be dry, as the trough will be moving out of the area, but there is a chance in some of the CAMs for some light precipitation to linger in southeast Montana into the Dakotas.
352 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2023 (Issued 352 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2023) Today through Monday Skies will start out mostly clear this morning, with increasing clouds likely by the afternoon as a cold front sweeps through the area. High temps will be a little above normal again today, topping out in the low 30s most places. High pressure will quickly move through the area tonight into Monday, bringing continued dry weather to southern Wisconsin. Temps will remain mild enough for some light rain as the low passes by to the north Monday evening into Monday night, dragging a cold front through the area.
Front has pushed through the CWA and associated upper trough will keep showers in the forecast today. Drier weather forecast through the week under upper level ridging. Some locally gusty north to east wind possible Monday into Monday night as high pressure builds inland.
Upper ridge over the area today will move east tonight, with increasing swly flow into Monday morning as upper trough moves into the Great Basin. Lee trough forecast to stay fairly close to I-25 today, suggesting low level winds on the plains will keep an easterly component into this afternoon. Not expecting big accums, but a few inches are likely over at least the higher peaks by sunrise. 1) Snow along and west of the ContDvd Monday morning, spreads east across the high mt valleys and areas over and near the eastern mts Monday afternoon and Monday night.
518 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2023 (Today through Monday) Dry conditions will prevail through Monday due to surface ridging influences and upper level ridging building across mid state region as day on Monday progresses. However, expecting our area to mostly remain above freezing mark as it comes to lows tonight which will range low to mid 30s. A warm front will be draped northwest to southeast across western portions of our area by early evening hours on Monday. This enhancing warm air advection pattern will result in even warmer highs than those expected today expected on Monday.
635 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 Aviation - Low Risk for Patchy Drizzle This Morning A cold front continues to approach the area from the Northern Plains while prolonged warm advection across the lowest 850mb has supported slightly increasing moisture. Given the lower profile of the moisture below the DGZ, drizzle is the main expected mode of precipitation. No major impacts are expected given the lack of moisture as well as the near to above freezing temperatures. As the cold front sweeps through this afternoon temps will fall leading to any lingering precip to transition to flurries.
404 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2023 Benign and continued mild weather is expected through Monday as south winds develop ahead of the next upper level trough, and then shift to the northwest Monday as the front passes. The warmest temperatures Monday afternoon will be in south central Kansas ahead of the front, with mid to upper 60s at Pratt and Medicine Lodge and cooler 50s farther northwest.
204 AM MST Sun Feb 5 2023 Overview: An upper level ridge over the western CONUS. will progress eastward across the Intermountain West (tonight) and Rockies/High Plains (Sunday) -- as a robust upper level trough. Tonight: With NW flow aloft over the region (on the eastern periphery of the approaching ridge). as the aforementioned ridge progresses eastward across the Rockies and High Plains. as flow aloft backs to the SW in advance of the aforementioned trough (progressing eastward across the Intermountain West). albeit slightly warmer than.
Benign and continued mild weather is expected through Monday as south winds develop ahead of the next upper level trough, and then shift to the northwest Monday as the front passes. The warmest temperatures Monday afternoon will be in south central Kansas ahead of the front, with mid to upper 60s at Pratt and Medicine Lodge and cooler 50s farther northwest.
We dropped today's highs a little in most of the warmer areas due to more cloud cover. Monday, the upper level trough continues to progress eastward over the region. Weak QG ascent and a sufficient moist layer will continue in the high country with some orographic enhancement. Monday evening, snow tapers off in the high country as dry air works back in. Can see 3-6" across most of the high country.
508 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2023 (Today and tonight) A progressive upper ridge currently moving east across the Rockies will help increase surface west-southwesterly winds this afternoon as the ridge axis shifts east out of eastern NM later this morning. Mostly sunny skies and warmer southwest breezes will provide another jump in temperatures, into the low to mid 70s area wide.
High pressure will push temperatures above normal for the weekend, with afternoon highs peaking around 12 degrees above average Sunday. Another weather system will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures early in the week, followed by a gradual warming trend. The high pressure ridge that was over the area yesterday has moved east of the area while an upper level trof has moved into the west coast this morning. This upper level trof will bring gusty winds to portions of the area today. Main impact from this trof as it moves into the state on Monday is another round of gusty winds and sharply cooler temperatures along with a slight chance of snow showers to the White mountains. Highs Monday will run 8 to 20 degrees cooler than today.
Snow accumulations of 8 to 15 inches in the Cascades and 4 to 8 inches above 5,000 feet in Siskiyou County are expected, with locally higher amounts in the higher terrain.
/NF/ The dry weather will continue on Monday, as high pressure continues to prevail, with highs climbing into the mid/upper 60s.
925 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 High pressure will continue across the CWA today.
554 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2023 (Today through Monday) All is quiet over the short term forecast as high pressure remains in control at the surface. Some non-zero PoPs over the outer marine zones early this morning as an amplifying trough passes through. This will also bring some additional warmer air in, which shows in afternoon highs reach into the upper 60s to low 70s on Monday and into the mid 70s for everyone by mid-week.
(Today through Monday) Dry conditions will prevail through Monday due to surface ridging influences and upper level ridging building across mid state region as day on Monday progresses. However, expecting our area to mostly remain above freezing mark as it comes to lows tonight which will range low to mid 30s. A warm front will be draped northwest to southeast across western portions of our area by early evening hours on Monday. This enhancing warm air advection pattern will result in even warmer highs than those expected today expected on Monday.
Warm, dry and becoming breezy today, ahead of a cold front due tonight and Monday. Our ridge begins to flatten out today, as a strong trough impacts the west coast. Most areas will still be warm this afternoon and increased southwest winds from the trough will really warm up the LCR. Winds stay mixed tonight as the trough and accompanying cold front approach the area, with some scattered, upslope snow showers pushing from NW to SE overnight and into Monday. The core of the trough will be weakening as it moves through Arizona Monday and the trajectory is dry.
A pleasant afternoon is in store across the region for early February as temperatures warm into the lower 50s to lower 60s.
At the surface, cold front extends from the Central Great Lakes through Southern IA and into western ND. Lee troughing is also starting to take shape from Eastern WY down into Eastern NM. This will result in strong warm advection across southern and southeast KS on Mon and even with plenty of cloud cover, most locations should see highs in the low 60s. Meanwhile over Central KS a cold front will be moving into the area late Mon afternoon. Still not looking like an impactful winter event with mostly rain with a brief period of rain/snow mix Wed morning, with freezing rain or sleet not anticipated. Most sites should stay in the low VFR cloud deck range but may flirt with MVFR conditions.
The patchy clouds and winds were associated with a weak trough. After this trough passes, high pressure will move in for tonight. This will bring clear skies, lighter winds, and cooler temps than last night. Lows tonight will be around freezing area wide. High pressure all the way up will make Monday a really nice February day. We will enjoy sunshine, light winds, and high temps mostly in the lower 60s. South winds will start to kick in again, so lows will be warmer- mostly lower 40s.
However, a light southerly breeze will help to keep our temperatures above the freezing mark in most locations, with lows in the mid 30s being common by early Monday morning.
1120 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2023 (Today and tonight) A progressive upper ridge currently moving east across the Rockies will help increase surface west-southwesterly winds this afternoon as the ridge axis shifts east out of eastern NM later this morning. Mostly sunny skies and warmer southwest breezes will provide another jump in temperatures, into the low to mid 70s area wide.
308 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 Mild and relatively tranquil weather will continue into the work week, with a weak, dry cold front dropping out of the Upper Midwest and pushing through the Ohio Valley tonight. This afternoon has been cloudy and breezy as a pre-frontal trof pusheas eastward through the area. With the passage of that trof axis and gradually rising heights, skies will clear and winds will diminish this evening. Slightly cooler and drier air will filter in from the north later tonight. Bigger sensible wx difference for most, other than temps a few degrees cooler than this morning, may simply be more frost to scrape off the windshield in the morning.
253 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 (This afternoon through Monday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA through the remainder of the short term period.
250 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 Drier air will be moving into the area tonight as low pressure moves away from the region.
228 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 Aviation - Low Risk for Patchy Drizzle This Morning A cold front continues to approach the area from the Northern Plains while prolonged warm advection across the lowest 850mb has supported slightly increasing moisture. Given the lower profile of the moisture below the DGZ, drizzle is the main expected mode of precipitation. No major impacts are expected given the lack of moisture as well as the near to above freezing temperatures. As the cold front sweeps through this afternoon temps will fall leading to any lingering precip to transition to flurries.
(This afternoon through Monday night) Westerly upper flow tonight will gradually back around from a more southwesterly direction Monday into Monday night as a trough digs down into the Four Corners region. Winds aloft will also increase ahead of the trough and strong winds are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning has been issued.
246 PM CST Sun Feb 5 2023 Forecast Highlights: -Warm and windy weather is anticipated tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front. A mid-level trough is also positioned over the central US this afternoon. A large scale mid-level trough over the western US will bring changes to our weather starting tomorrow. Efficient WAA should make for another warm day, but have opted to go slightly cooler than guidance due to possible lingering cloud cover. A line of showers could then develop along the cold front as it works through east- central KS tomorrow evening, so have gone with slight chance POPs near and south of I-35.
A N-S frontal boundary is located across the eastern peninsula with an area of low pressure developing along this front. The low-level convergence and synoptic lift from the upper trough is leading to a few showers/storms out over the Gulf. The upper level trough exits quickly to the east overnight. Upper level heights will continue to climb behind the departing trough early this week.
Winds have turned light southwesterly around the lower Keys. a robust anticyclone was centered over the western North Atlantic, but it's primary gradient flow has retreated eastward during the last 24 hours. The high-resolution Convection Allowing Models (CAMs) indicate that significant deep moist convection will remain well northwest and west of the service area. Thereafter, the period of lighter breezes will be short-lived as a sprawling continental anticyclone expands and intensifies across the eastern United States.
Warm, dry and becoming breezy today, ahead of a cold front due tonight and Monday. The cold front is moving across eastern Nevada this morning with heavy snow being reported in Ely. South to southwest winds have also started to pick up over the higher terrain of northern Arizona. Our ridge begins to flatten out today, as a strong trough impacts the west coast. Most areas will still be warm this afternoon and increased southwest winds from the trough will really warm up the LCR. Winds stay mixed tonight as the trough and accompanying cold front approach the area, with some scattered, upslope snow showers pushing from NW to SE overnight and into Monday. The core of the trough will be weakening as it moves through Arizona Monday and the trajectory is dry.
Southerly winds will pick up this evening and into the overnight as the high pressure moves into the Mississippi Valley and another storm system approaches from the west. Have trended the forecast toward the warmer short term blend numbers.
Dry conditions are forecast to return this week due to high pressure, which may allow for fog to return as well. Snow reports through the night range from 3 to 4 inches in the lower elevations to near 13 inches in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Models indicate an additional 3 to 7 inches for lower elevations and upwards of 15 to 20 inches for the higher elevations of the Sierra for the rest of the evening. After this storm system exits the region tonight, ensemble guidance and cluster analysis indicates that a ridge of high pressure will prevail over California this week. Blended model guidance shows a warming trend will commence this week as the ridge builds.
207 PM CST Sun Feb 5 2023 Key Messages: - Patchy fog possible tonight as the ridge axis moves overhead tonight leading to light surface winds.
Did make some minor adjustments to high temperatures for today as the persistent stratus deck should keep temperatures a touch cooler than initially anticipated.
(This evening through Monday) Some partial cloud cover will cross the area tonight as a weak surface cold front and upper trough move through. Tomorrow will be sunny as the upper trough exits and a large ridge builds in from the west.
Water vapor satellite imagery showing the digging trough along the NW coast this morning. Snow levels are around 3500 feet this morning and will generally remain in a 3500-4500 range through the day, though above freezing temperatures will limit accumulations at sites below 4500 feet. The chance of showers continues through this evening, retreating to the mountains overnight as the upper trough passes.
131 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 Drier air will be moving into the area tonight as low pressure moves away from the region.
As we move into tonight, light winds from this afternoon will begin to increase out of the south as strong high pressure over the southeastern CONUS and a developing low in the less of the rockies greatly tighten the pressure gradient over the area. This good warm air advection will help temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s.
Southwesterly winds will return aloft tonight ahead of an approaching positively tilted trough axis.
temperatures have overachieved again today with many locations into the lower 50s as of 19Z. The quiet weather pattern will continue with the frontal passage this afternoon creating little impact other than a wind shift and slightly cooler temperatures for tonight and Monday. High level clouds will gradually increase during the afternoon as a cold front moves through the central and northern Plains. Low level thermals support highs generally 5 degrees cooler than today for Monday.
259 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 Much warmer weather is expected this week.
Westerly flow aloft with south-southwesterly surface winds will contribute to warmer conditions with highs in the 60s this afternoon. An expansive ridge will build across the eastern half of the CONUS tomorrow while a sharp trough passes over the Four Corners. Ridging will result in height rises across Central Alabama which will foster even warmer temperatures and sunny skies tomorrow afternoon with the potential for some readings in the lower 70s.
335 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2023 A trough just off the coast will push further offshore overnight followed by a weak cold front early Monday.
Obs where clouds are broken to overcast are showing temps lower than forecast, with areas of clear skies a little warmer. High clouds will be increasing over the next few hours as an upper trough axis moves over the area, then decrease in the late afternoon as the trough moves east. Discussion: Upper level trough will move across the area, bringing increased cloud cover to East TN.
The lack of wind will be fairly short lived tonight, however, as lee side cyclogenesis begins to form a surface cyclone east of the Rockies in Colorado in response to the approaching upper-level trough moving through the western CONUS. The low stratus and partly cloudy skies will linger around areas of Oklahoma and western north Texas throughout the day on Monday.
A weather system will move north of the area to start the work week, resulting in gusty winds and cooler temperatures, as well as a slight chance of precipitation in the White Mountains.
The heavies snow will be in the higher terrain of Clearwater and Idaho counties with Pierce and Elk City 2 to 4 inches of snow by mid Monday morning.
629 PM CST Sun Feb 5 2023 Beginning to see more widespread areas of dense fog under the low cloud cover across much of the eastern part of the CWA.
317 PM CST Sun Feb 5 2023 High pressure remains in control into tonight as an upper trough ejects eastward aloft. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer with the increases in moisture and we fall into the 40s F for lows. Monday continues the warming trend and remains dry as upper level energy largely remains to our north and we remain under the influence of broad surface ridging.
515 PM CST Sun Feb 5 2023 Key Messages: - Patchy fog possible tonight as the ridge axis moves overhead tonight leading to light surface winds.
(This afternoon through Monday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA through the remainder of the short term period.
(Now through Monday) Northwest flow is taking hold aloft over the the Deep South as an upper ridge approaches from the west. Current temperatures across the local area this afternoon are in the mid to upper 60s, with a few areas in the lower 70s. Lows are forecast to dip into the lower 40s over inland locations and into the mid to upper 40s south of I-10 late tonight into early Monday morning.
Upper level analysis places ridge over the northern plains, with trough over the Pacific Northwest nudging over the northern Rockies. To the west, some higher clouds are starting to push into the area coming up the back side of the upper ridge. Notable short wave zips through in conjunction with this system which will bring the potential for some light precipitation (possibly a little light snow or a little freezing rain).
A mid-level trough will push across the FL peninsula later this evening and overnight which will help take the low further and quickly northeastward away from the region. The short-term models really aren't picking up on it, and surface/low-level winds are forecast to "back" NWRLY later tonight and with the aforementioned upper trough pushing across the area that this will not affect us, but we will monitor and update the forecast if necessary. High pressure to the north builds over the area with north to northeast wind flow and drier air filtering in. Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 70s except upper 60s along the Volusia coast. Low pressure continues to pull away from the central FL coast and further into the western Atlc taking rain showers with it.
Latest data coming in right now indicates a chance of freezing rain Monday night along the US-10 corridor. If we do see some freezing precipitation over the northern cwa Monday night, models indicate it would be only a 4-5 hr window after midnight.
526 PM CST Sun Feb 5 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) Westerly upper flow tonight will gradually back around from a more southwesterly direction Monday into Monday night as a trough digs down into the Four Corners region. Winds aloft will also increase ahead of the trough and strong winds are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning has been issued.
Cold core upper low is moving over the area this afternoon. As the low moves southeast of the area this evening activity will die off.
As a weak warm front simultaneously lifts northward, this has yielded increasing cloudiness; along with an increasingly saturated atmosphere due to moisture pooling, as observed with early 0Z sounding data. Water vapor satellite imagery shows much drier air back to the west behind the upper-level trough. A N-S frontal boundary is located across the eastern peninsula with an area of low pressure developing along this front. The low-level convergence and synoptic lift from the upper trough is leading to a few showers/storms out over the Gulf. The upper level trough exits quickly to the east overnight. Upper level heights will continue to climb behind the departing trough early this week.