Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will continue to dominate the areas weather for the next several days.
1234 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Surface and upper air analysis show high pressure influencing the area this morning, which will promote clear skies and continued dry conditions today. The only concern today will be elevated fire danger as dewpoints this morning are in the low 60s, forecast to mix down to the mid to upper 50s this afternoon. /SAS/ Today through tonight: Overall, the forecast remains warm and dry for the near term given continued ridging over the forecast area. Temperatures this afternoon will be on the hot side (~5 to 10 F above climatological normal) in the low to mid 90s, but low humidity will keep heat indices from being highly stressful. The low RH and high temperatures combined with continued dry weather will enhance the fire weather danger and we will keep the HWO graphic going.
Cooler temperatures also arrive. Detailed Discussion: Upper level ridging across the central CONUS and southerly low level flow keeps skies relatively clear. This flow of warm air has pushed highs across the area into the lower 90s. You could see the northern extent of the warm air advection this morning wit a rouge thunderstorm that formed across north central KS along a subtle warm front before daytime heating washed out the bounday. A large trough is slowly working its way eastward across the CONUS bringing with it much cooler conditions and an opportunity for precipitation.
A broad upper level trough will remain to the west of the forecast area both today and tomorrow. Lingering cloud cover and showers will lead to slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to the mid 80s.
148 PM PDT Sat Sep 30 2023 An upper low will allow cool temperatures as well as valley rain and high elevation snow showers through the end of the weekend.
The Florida Keys will remain on the western periphery of a mean layer ridge in the western North Atlantic through tomorrow. At the surface, an expansive high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will maintain easterly flow over the next 36 hours.
(Tonight) With dew points in the lower to middle 60s, a fairly widespread cumulus field has developed this afternoon.
(This afternoon through Sunday Night) A ridge of high pressure has built over our area, and we'll be stuck with it for several days.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Dry and warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the rest of the weekend across the Ark-La-Tex. This is due to surface ridging in place across the area that will be reinforced by a quasi-omega blocking pattern across the Eastern U. The magnitude of this ridging will maintain dry air through easterly surface winds with dew points slowly falling into the lower 60s.
Dry and warmer weather continues for tomorrow as high pressure remains the main weather player. Highs will climb to the low and mid 80s. The majority of the upcoming week will feature above normal temperatures and dry conditions as amplified upper level ridging remains fixed over the eastern CONUS.
254 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 This evening through tomorrow: High pressure will continue to promote quiet conditions as well as above normal temperatures across the area.
A midlevel ridge parked over the eastern CONUS will allow a stationary front to remain draped across the eastern Gulf waters.
1245 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge axis stretching from the western Gulf of Mexico into the southern Great Lakes is progged to continue amplifying today in advance of deepening upper troughing over the western CONUS. Despite the midlevel moisture in place, the majority of the region is expected to remain dry today through tonight as subsidence associated with the aforementioned upper ridge expands slightly westward in addition to a lack of any coherent low level forcing mechanisms locally.
A high amplitude upper level ridge will remain in place over the eastern U. This could lead to some patchy fog development in the lower lying areas of north Georgia and in the river valleys (due to dewpoints near 60 degrees).
Seasonable early fall weather will prevail this weekend as high pressure dries out the region, leading to a warm and dry weekend.
Obviously no precipitation is expected in the short term given ridging both at the surface and aloft.
Lingering afternoon showers in the North Bay after a cold front passed through the Bay Area this morning. (This evening through Sunday) The cold front passed through the Bay Area and central coast early this morning, bringing scattered light to moderate rain showers, particularly south of San Francisco. While the surface front has passed, the supporting upper level low is still bringing instability to the North Bay. Cloud tops are not deep enough into the freezing layer to generate the conditions necessary for thunderstorms, but some strikes are possible as the afternoon progresses. Sunday is expected to be calmer, drier, and warmer, with no threat of rain.
608 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 This evening through tomorrow: High pressure will continue to promote quiet conditions as well as above normal temperatures across the area.
The majority of the storms have remained over the coastal Gulf waters and some areas along the coasts, where much of the higher low level moisture resides. The low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s for areas north of I-10, the low to mid 70s along and south of I-10, and in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coasts and Barrier Islands. High temperatures will once again be in the mid to upper 90s inland and in the low to mid 90s along the coasts. Another tranquil night is on tap for Sunday night with clear to partly cloudy skies and lows mainly in the low to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to low 80s along the coasts.
Rain showers continue this evening mainly over Owyhee and Malheur Counties as they collect around the northern flank of an upper low in Nevada. The low is slowly taking over as the main pcpn producer. Meanwhile, showers in Baker and Adams Counties have been decreasing as the original upper trough weakens there. As the low weakens in Nevada Sunday afternoon the showers will stall across central Idaho southwestward through Malheur County, then decrease in all areas Sunday night, as depicted well by current forecast.
608 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Upper ridging begins to shift eastward today into tomorrow as a large upper trough deepens over the western US. For now, we remain well removed from the trough and expect mainly dry conditions with above normal temperatures to continue tonight into tomorrow, along with breezy south winds. Convection is expected to remain confined to the higher terrain today and tomorrow with stronger upper flow still to our west.
620 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Tonight) With dew points in the lower to middle 60s, a fairly widespread cumulus field has developed this afternoon.
513 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) Dry and warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the rest of the weekend across the Ark-La-Tex. This is due to surface ridging in place across the area that will be reinforced by a quasi-omega blocking pattern across the Eastern U. The magnitude of this ridging will maintain dry air through easterly surface winds with dew points slowly falling into the lower 60s.
With this high to the north the onshore flow will remain. Weak coastal troughing will result in a pinched gradient, especially along the NE FL shore.
658 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 High pressure will remain centered across the region this taf period. This will continue to reinforce the ongoing amplification of the upper-level ridging in place across Midwest/Great Lakes region.
High pressure and ridging over Canada will make for a dry weekend across the region.
726 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 High pressure will gradually build across the region through the weekend.
A cold low pressure system will linger over the area through Sunday with isolated showers possible, especially in LA County.
(This evening through Sunday) High pressure will remain through the short term with easterly to northeasterly low and mid level winds.
Despite this and potential for more patchy to areas of fog/dense fog, plenty of concerns to continue with headlines, but not expand west as crossover temps in the low 50s less likely to be met. High pressure will continue to dominate the areas weather for the next several days.
Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through Sunday night. Tomorrow will be much warmer as the peak thermal ridge crosses over our area.
616 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) A ridge of high pressure has built over our area, and we'll be stuck with it for several days.
523 PM PDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Lingering afternoon showers in the North Bay after a cold front passed through the Bay Area this morning. (This evening through Sunday) The cold front passed through the Bay Area and central coast early this morning, bringing scattered light to moderate rain showers, particularly south of San Francisco. While the surface front has passed, the supporting upper level low is still bringing instability to the North Bay. Cloud tops are not deep enough into the freezing layer to generate the conditions necessary for thunderstorms, but some strikes are possible as the afternoon progresses. Sunday is expected to be calmer, drier, and warmer, with no threat of rain.
626 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (This evening through Sunday) High pressure will remain through the short term with easterly to northeasterly low and mid level winds.
615 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 The upper level pattern will continue to amplify through the weekend as troughing centered over California and the Central Great Basin digs as it works its way east.
941 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 (Issued 940 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023) Outside of some pesky high clouds that crept into the area keeping temps slightly warmer underneath them, the previous forecast remains on track with quiet, warm weather through the remainder of the weekend. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out tonight for well inland areas, but any lingering clouds could delay radiational cooling and prevent the lower boundary layer from fully decoupling and saturating. Warm dry weather continues under the 300mb ridge on Sunday, with daytime highs in the Mid-80s for the majority of our CWA.
213 PM PDT Sat Sep 30 2023 A cold core low pressure system will remain in place over the weekend allowing for cooler conditions to persist, as well as bring showers and thunderstorms to the region.
Latest satellite imagery depicts a mid/upper level low settling in near the Great Basin. The trough associated with this system has tightened the gradient across southeast Arizona today resulting in gusty south to southwest winds. As the trough progresses eastward it will also dig southward as an embedded disturbance works its way through the area Sunday.
A quiet and mostly clear night is underway as surface ridging continues to maintain influence across the area. /DL/ This evening through tomorrow: High pressure will continue to promote quiet conditions as well as above normal temperatures across the area.
For the rest of the forecast, we'll see a surface warm front pushing northward overnight into Sunday morning. Air mass warms appreciably behind the warm front, with 850mb temps rising into the +20s C overnight into Sunday morning. Fairly unidirectional flow in the lower levels, along with steep lapse rates should set the stage for rather windy conditions. With the abnormally warm air mass in place, could be approaching record highs for a couple locations as readings soar into the mid/upper 80s and potentially the lower 90s.
Today will be similar to yesterday in that highs will be slightly cooler and we will once again see a chance for showers and storms over southeast New Mexico and the Davis Mountains. Conditions for storms will be a bit better with more moisture extending further west and more favorable shear thanks to the approaching upper level low. While the best chances for storms remains over the higher terrain and in southeast New Mexico, the adjacent plains may see some activity. Once again, afternoon thunderstorms focused over the higher terrain and southeast New Mexico will be likely. Shear increases as the upper low to the west moves east over the Rockies.
1226 AM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) Dry and warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the rest of the weekend across the Ark-La-Tex. This is due to surface ridging in place across the area that will be reinforced by a quasi-omega blocking pattern across the Eastern U. The magnitude of this ridging will maintain dry air through easterly surface winds with dew points slowly falling into the lower 60s.
High pressure will remain over Western Washington through Sunday with seasonable temperatures and another dry day. High pressure will then rebuild over the region late in the week, maintaining dry conditions and a warming trend.
A potent weather system will lead to windy and much cooler conditions this weekend. Conditions will be somewhat warmer across south-central Arizona. Model consensus indicates the aforementioned low will revert to an open trough as it migrates eastward Monday. In the wake of the trough axis and after a relatively chilly morning, high temperatures will again struggle to reach the mid 80s in the Phoenix area.
Lows will fall into the low to mid 60s by sunrise. 14 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Sunday) High pressure will remain through the short term with easterly to northeasterly low and mid level winds.
High pressure remains in control of our weather. The upper ridge is sending short waves northeastward across Wisconsin the UP and southern Wisconsin and we can see the showers/storms there. As heights build Monday, temperatures will reach the lower to perhaps mid 80s.
315 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 High pressure building over the area will bring dry conditions for much of the upcoming week.
255 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 Warm and dry weather will persist as sfc and upper ridging continue to dominate.
A deep upper level trough is currently pushing onto the West Coast.
351 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 High pressure centered off to the north will continue to build into the region through the middle portion of the week. Slightly unsettled weather returns late week as a result of an upper trough moving through the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. For today, mostly dry conditions as the cut-off low off the eastern seaboard continues to move further east, taking the lingering low-level moisture with it. High pressure will continue to creep further south and east into the area. Highs for this afternoon will rise into the upper 70s to maybe a few low 80s mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Height rises will be a common theme this week with the area of high pressure continuing to dig closer to overhead of the Mid-Atlantic region in the middle part of the workweek.
Another dry afternoon will occur as high pressure and associated subsidence remains in control of the weather.
(Today through Monday) High pressure will continue to build over the Eastern CONUS through Monday.
For today a closed upper low will evolve over the Great Basin before a portion of the upper trof opens up and lifts northeastward toward the Rockies late Monday. The relatively better low level moisture and instability axis will remain situated across the high Plains which is where the more meaningful precip/convective chances will reside through Monday evening.
For the rest of today, southerly winds will continue to increase south of the warm front. The winds will help mix down the very warm air under the upper ridge.
E/NE low level flow in place across the peninsula this morning beneath upper level troughing extending S/SW down the E Seaboard into the state. since last week will push south beginning later today in response to high pressure building over the NE U. A frontal boundary will move through the Gulf waters today into tonight with increasing northeast winds in its wake as high pressure builds in from the north.
Large scale subsidence in the vicinity of an upper level ridge will allow few if any clouds from developing today. An upper level ridge will build over the region and bring mild weather for the next several days.
A closed mid-level low pressure system will continue to push showers up and into the Northern Rockies. The low pressure system will begin to eject eastward on Monday, bringing most of the widespread precipitation to a close.
217 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 High pressure will gradually build across the region through the weekend.
309 AM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023 High pressure will maintain its stronghold on the weather pattern through early this week.
Large scale pattern still dominated by large/deep upper low over the SW CONUS and another upper low over the north Atlantic off the New England coast with well defined upper ridge in between centered along 90W near the lower and middle MS river valley.
(Today and tonight) Southwest flow aloft will persist across the area in the short term, in advance of a large upper low that will remain quasi- stationary over the Great Basin region through tonight. However, a few showers and isolated storms may develop across southwest sections, mainly this afternoon but will keep POPs on the low side as latest CAM's are rather anemic. Temperatures will be slightly cooler today, but still above normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
It will move east on Monday, setting up much warmer and drier weather for the remainder of the week. An unseasonably cold upper low was centered over Reno this evening. One jet streak circled south around the low and over SoCal earlier today, sparking the heavier showers and thunderstorms north of San Diego County.
1241 AM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023 A quiet and mostly clear night is underway as surface ridging continues to maintain influence across the area. /DL/ This evening through tomorrow: High pressure will continue to promote quiet conditions as well as above normal temperatures across the area.
Otherwise, a large dome of high pressure at the sfc remains in place from the Great Lakes/OH Valley southward into the mid/southern Atlantic states. A large upper ridge pattern also continues to expand across the Midwest/SE regions.
1159 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 High pressure will remain centered across the region this taf period. This will continue to reinforce the ongoing amplification of the upper-level ridging in place across Midwest/Great Lakes region.
Light showers have rounded the top of the upper ridge and are diving southeast but moving into dry atmosphere. Obviously no precipitation is expected in the short term given ridging both at the surface and aloft.
1245 AM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023 (This evening through Monday) High pressure will continue to dominate the region over the next few days across the forecast area, as the upper ridge shifts into eastern portions of the CONUS while an upper trough/low expands across the western region.
Southwest flow continues aloft with a quick little ridge moving through, and a warm thermal ridge aiding in surface temperatures in the 80s. With not a lot of synoptic forcing (mainly ridging) these will not persist and may only last a few hours and be very weak. The low clouds and fog should break by late morning leading to a warm day with sunshine. Tonight the warm thermal ridge spends the night with us and doesn't allow much cooling.
300 AM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023 Today through tonight: Overall, the forecast remains warm and dry for the near term given continued ridging over the forecast area. The low RH and high temperatures combined with continued dry weather will continue to raise fire weather danger, so we will keep the HWO graphic going.
Some patches of fog may try and develop as we inch closer to daybreak, with northwest Indiana seemingly the most susceptible to seeing fog where conditions have been just a bit cooler this morning. Similar to yesterday, highs can be expected to reach the lower and middle 80s today and Monday.
(Today and tonight) As we go through the day today upper ridge to our east will continue to weaken.
If we do get some clearing as the rain continues to depart and sunshine comes out, there are some indications we could see some highs in the lower to middle 70s, but 80s today seem highly unlikely. That said, the warm front still remains well to the north this evening, stretched across far northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula. Sunday, fog will depart after sunrise and any lingering rain will likely diminish as the low level jet diminishes across the north. WAA through the low levels and clear skies will make for a very warm day for early October, with high temperatures pushing to within a couple degrees of record values for October 1st.
The latest surface analysis shows high pressure passing over the Great Lakes. The model guidance is in good agreement that high pressure ridging aloft will continue to strengthen through 12z Sunday with 500mb heights climbing to ~590 dam from the Lower Mississippi to Lower Ohio valleys. The ridge then subsides slightly later on Sunday and Sunday night. At the surface, high pressure will expand southward into the Southern Appalachians. It will again be mild with lows ranging from the mid 50s, cooler valleys, to around 60, thermal belt ridges. This nice weather will be the result of a large ridge of high pressure that will be parked over the region.
(Today through Monday) Current 500mb analysis places an expansive ridge centered across the Midwest/Great Lakes region with a deep trough across the western CONUS. Synoptic forcing for shower and storm development will be absent through the period with the aforementioned trough still far to our west, so any precipitation activity through the period will be driven simply by the presence of deep moisture and diurnal heating.
1249 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 Dry high pressure will remain over the region the rest of the weekend and through much of the upcoming week.
The latest water vapor imagery is showing the upper ridge staying in place from Lower Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes early this morning. The latest HREF shows that this ridge will remain over Missouri and Illinois through Monday keeping our weather dry and the sky mainly clear. Highs today and Monday will range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s as 850mb temperatures will remain in the 15-18C range and mixing up to 800mb.
Probabilities of greater than 90 degrees in these areas is less than 10%, so not expecting anything higher than the high 80s. Temperatures on Monday will get into the mid 80s in some locations, but a frontal passage will turn our winds northerly to stop the ongoing WAA from the ridging and usher in colder temperatures. Key Messages: 1) Rain possible mid-week with a trough, low chance for severe weather.
1005 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Southerly flow has increased over Wyoming as a trough deepens across the West Coast. The trough and now closed low will approach Wyoming on Sunday. Otherwise, Sunday will be cooler, with humidity elevated above 25 percent for most. A secondary low will pull north with the primary trough axis on Monday.
(Today) It will be a warm and dry start to October with ridging aloft remaining in place.
1040 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 The upper level pattern will continue to amplify through the weekend as troughing centered over California and the Central Great Basin digs as it works its way east.
Above normal temperatures and dry until a cold front moves through in the middle of this week.
There is 10-20% chance of thunderstorms along the Sierra south of Lake Tahoe with additional snow accumulation along the higher peaks and possibly at Sonora and Tioga passes. A band of showers (enhanced rain shower bands south of Pyramid Lake and Lake Tahoe) were ongoing early this morning as an upper low moved slowly east across the Great Basin.