Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
620 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023 (Today and tonight) Key Messages: 1) More sunny skies expected today with above average temperatures 2) Low afternoon relative humidities in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia Discussion: Currently some light radar returns are present across southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina as the low continues to slowly spin across the northern Gulf of Mexico. These weak showers are likely resulting in virga, as the lower levels of the atmosphere remain fairly dry even overnight.
While the rains may have ended for the Lower and Middle Keys, winds continue to gust in the 25 to 35 knot range. The shift to northerlies will result in mild conditions with temperatures topping out in the lower 80s with dew points playing in the upper 60s. The mild conditions are expected to persist into this weekend as high pressure spreading south southeastward out of the Plains maintains gentle northwest to northerly breezes. Through the weekend, a low pressure system is expected to track northeastward across the eastern United States. This will displace the high out into the Atlantic. All this is setting the stage for a cold front passage around mid week. The low is expected to meander northeastward out of our waters early today taking with it the associated annulus of showers and stronger winds.
Visibilities in the southwestern South Plains are the lowest with several AWOS sites reporting less than one quarter mile visibility. Several weak short wave troughs will move across the central and northern CONUS today along with an approaching upper level jet streak in the southwestern US. A repeat of nighttime fog and low stratus will not make a return tonight with westerly winds in advance of a cold front.
A cold front that brought wind, rain, and snow will be moving east this morning. Motorists should be aware that precipitation overnight combined with freezing temperatures this morning will result in some icy spots on roadways, especially across northwest Montana. Travelers over the Continental Divide will experience gusty west winds throughout the day today as the cold front continues east. An upper level ridge will build over the Northern Rockies on Friday.
233 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2023 Key Messages: - Sharp cold front with gusty winds today - Elevated fire weather conditions today - Much colder for Thanksgiving 09z surface analysis had low over western ND with cold front into south-central MT. Guidance in excellent agreement with dry cold front plowing through CWA between 11z-16z today. 3-5mb/3hr pressure rises behind cold front will bring widespread wind gusts to 45-55mph for a few hours this morning/early afternoon as it taps into 35-45kt boundary layer winds.
558 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 (Today through Friday Night) Widespread low clouds prevail over the region in response to the low pressure system spinning over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Clouds will gradually clear by late mid-morning Friday, leading to more sunshine and warmer temperatures. A weak cold front will move through the region late Friday afternoon/night.
(Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Patchy to Areas of fog across Coastal Plains Friday morning Ridging from a mid-level high centered near the southern tip of the Baja peninsula will keep much of TX under a northwesterly flow aloft. Resulting in a drier vertical profile except at the surface which will see a light variable flow due to a higher latitude low pressure system and attendant cold front that will approach our CWA late in the week.
It will be dry tonight and Friday as an upper level ridge moves overhead with southerly flow aloft returning late Friday and Friday night. Temperatures will remain very warm and well above normal high temperatures both today and Friday although slightly cooler than the last several days.
541 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 (Today through Friday) A 500 mb ridge of high pressure will continue to build north out of neighboring Mexico during the period. This will place the entire BRO CWFA in a northwest-to- southeast mid-level flow, resulting in dry weather for Deep South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and the lower Texas coastal waters. Finally, the inundation map of the NOAA Tides and Currents website, in addition to subsiding seas along the Lower Texas Coast, suggest that wave action will not require a Coastal Flood Statement at the local beaches today.
626 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 (Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Patchy to Areas of fog across Coastal Plains Friday morning Ridging from a mid-level high centered near the southern tip of the Baja peninsula will keep much of TX under a northwesterly flow aloft. Resulting in a drier vertical profile except at the surface which will see a light variable flow due to a higher latitude low pressure system and attendant cold front that will approach our CWA late in the week.
with an upper low over Florida. The upper low will move east of Florida tonight as another upper trough moves into the upper Midwest. This upper trough moves through the Great Lakes and eastern U. Abundant low clouds are expected today with plenty of moisture at the low levels. A cold front in the northern Plains will move south today and tonight and enter northwest Arkansas Friday morning. Lows tonight will be in the lower 50s to around 60 degrees and cooler Friday night with lows in the mid 30s to upper 40s.
- Dry and cooler this weekend. Surface cold front will push through during the day Friday, with precip winding down from west to east in the afternoon and evening. Dry and cooler weather returns this weekend as high pressure builds over the area, in the wake of the cold frontal passage.
High temperatures will be variable today as areas of lighter cloud cover will warm to the low 70s and areas that have higher cloud cover will struggle to warm only getting to the mid 60s. The low pressure system responsible for the recent wet weather will shift east of the forecast area today and tonight as weak high pressure builds over us.
Temperatures currently range from the mid 60s on the plateau to the low 70s west of the plateau. High pressure to our east is providing southerly flow into the area. Cloud cover will start to increase this evening as a broad trough approaches the area. A cold front will approach during the day on Friday with some shower activity ahead of the front.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are currently near 80 degrees with some places in the lower 80s such as the Big Pine Key RAWS at 82 degrees. The Florida Keys are currently between two areas of low pressure with one off the Space Coast and the other one over the South- central Gulf of Mexico. The low over the Gulf is expected to continue moving southward while weakening and eventually dissipating Friday night.
The original low pressure area that was in the northeast Gulf yesterday is moving southwest toward the central Gulf. The upper-level trough will move to our east on Friday and should allow for a bit more sunshine and lower rain chances.
The strong cold front will then shift east across the area later this evening and overnight. Cold air advection behind the front Friday will bring cooler temperatures in the middle to upper 40s, which is still around or just a little below seasonal normals. High pressure to the south of the region into Friday night with lighter winds will keep things quiet.
Used a blend of the warmest guidance sets, including the NBM 95th percentile, for highs, which should range from the lower 60s north to the middle to upper 60s south. Strong CAA will occur in the wake of a cold frontal passage tonight into early Friday. Temperatures on Friday are expected to be about 25 degrees colder than today, with highs ranging from the middle 30s north to the lower 40s south. Winds: The pressure gradient will increase dramatically today as high pressure shifts east and a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. Dry weather will prevail through today, but scattered showers will accompany the cold front tonight. A ridge of high pressure will return on Friday, and bring partly cloudy skies.
(Tonight through Friday night) Low pressure centered over the central Gulf of Mexico has brought a low cloud deck over the eastern part of South Central Texas. These clouds are slowing dissipating and the low is moving slowly away from the region. Mid-level flow is from the southwest around the top of an upper ridge. As the Gulf low moves off the east, the low level flow will become southerly to southwesterly tonight and bring warmer air to the region. Friday a weak cold front will move through the area.
Upper trough currently pushing through the Northern Plains will quickly move off to the east into the Great Lakes tonight. Warm air advection will continue into Friday night as upper ridging builds into the Western Plains.
Mostly cloudy skies and moisture have kept morning temperatures a bit warmer than usual today. Temperatures will be cooler today with thicker cloud cover to help resist heating.
The broad deep-layered trough with multiple surface centers will continue to impact our weather through tonight. Most of the rain should end as the upper-level trough pushes east of our region and the frontal low east of Florida moves away to the northeast.
(Tonight through Friday night) A modest 500 mb ridge will continue to build north out of neighboring Mexico. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s to a few lower 60s Friday night, slightly warmer than normal. Friday high temperatures will be in the lower 80s, well above normal.
1146 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 (Today through Friday) A 500 mb ridge of high pressure will continue to build north out of neighboring Mexico during the period. This will place the entire BRO CWFA in a northwest-to- southeast mid-level flow, resulting in dry weather for Deep South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and the lower Texas coastal waters. Finally, the inundation map of the NOAA Tides and Currents website, in addition to subsiding seas along the Lower Texas Coast, suggest that wave action will not require a Coastal Flood Statement at the local beaches today.
The passage of a cold front tonight will end the warm stretch of weather we've been enjoying this week. Temperatures return to seasonable on Friday with highs in the low to mid 40s. An amplifying upper-level trough drops into the Norther Plains around the same time as a low-pressure system ejects out of the Intermountain West. Strong south southwest winds this afternoon will turn to northwest this evening as a cold front moves through, then gradually diminish late tonight and Friday morning.
226 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Key Messages: - A cold front moves through overnight bringing in cooler air for Friday with highs in the 50s.
1251 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today. A cold front is forecast to bring showers on Friday. Clouds will thicken and lower early tonight ahead of the cold front, with the threat for showers beginning around midnight in western locations.
Everybody picked up rainfall over the past 24-hours, but the highest totals are east of the Torches, with totals ranging from 4 to 12" or more. From synopsis, an area of low pressure centered east of South Florida will continue to move north to northeastward this afternoon, resulting in improving marine conditions for the Florida Keys coastal waters. Another weak low pressure system in the central Gulf of Mexico will migrate southward and weaken, as high pressure builds in from the north.
Rain chances will begin increasing overnight as a cold front approaches the Mid-South. The highest totals will likely occur in portions of northwest TN, where up to a quarter of an inch of rainfall is possible.
(This evening through Friday) The West Central TX area remains under zonal to near weak ridging aloft. High clouds continue to stream into the area as an upper low off the CA coast filters moisture from the Baja region into the Southern Plains. As such, overnight lows will be on the mild side tonight in the low to mid 50s. Cooler air will begin to slowly work its way in behind the boundary, keeping areas in the Big Country in the mid to upper 60s tomorrow. Further south in the Heartland and along the I-10 corridor, temperatures look to be comparable to today with the cooler air losing most of its punch by the time it reaches the area tomorrow afternoon.
Tonight and Friday After a cloudier start to the day, mainly across the southernmost parts of the region, skies are beginning to quickly clear as high pressure takes over. Expecting clear skies tonight with temperatures dropping to around freezing across much of the interstate corridors with teens and 20s across the high country overnight.
KS (Today and tonight) Key Messages: 1) More sunny skies expected today with above average temperatures 2) Low afternoon relative humidities in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia Discussion: Currently some light radar returns are present across southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina as the low continues to slowly spin across the northern Gulf of Mexico. These weak showers are likely resulting in virga, as the lower levels of the atmosphere remain fairly dry even overnight.
1135 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 (Today through Friday Night) Widespread low clouds prevail over the region in response to the low pressure system spinning over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Clouds will gradually clear by late mid-morning Friday, leading to more sunshine and warmer temperatures. A weak cold front will move through the region late Friday afternoon/night.
226 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Much cooler conditions settle in this evening behind a cold front.
153 PM MST Thu Nov 16 2023 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a ridge of high pressure amplifying across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
(This afternoon through Friday night) The upper pattern today has a ridge extending from Mexico up across TX and NM with a low spinning off the CA Coast.
Temperatures in the lower to mid 60s across the area, and expected to rise to the upper 60s, possibly reaching 70 in a few locations.
Friday will bring warmer temperatures and less wind.
1029 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2023 Key Messages: - Sharp cold front with gusty winds today - Elevated fire weather conditions today - Much colder for Thanksgiving 09z surface analysis had low over western ND with cold front into south-central MT. Guidance in excellent agreement with dry cold front plowing through CWA between 11z-16z today. 3-5mb/3hr pressure rises behind cold front will bring widespread wind gusts to 45-55mph for a few hours this morning/early afternoon as it taps into 35-45kt boundary layer winds.
- Cold front approaches and scattered showers develop tonight. High pressure and broad ridging has been anchored over the Eastern seaboard for the last several forecast periods. A small nose of moisture has crept through central Kentucky riding along the trough extending from the Gulf of Mexico and is sustaining a small patch of low clouds over the northern half of the CWA. As the cold front approaches the region, scattered showers will develop out ahead of the front around 6Z in the northwest and 9Z to the southeast. As the front moves through the region, precip and skies will quickly clear as high pressure moves in behind. =============================================================== Key Messages - Cooler and dry conditions for the weekend - Widespread rain (>80% chance) expected Mon/Tue with strong storm system.
1100 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today. A cold front is forecast to bring showers on Friday. Clouds will thicken and lower early tonight ahead of the cold front, with the threat for showers beginning around midnight in western locations.
A cold front will move into northwest Oklahoma around midnight as a mid/upper-level trough amplifies in the Midwest. The cold front will advance southeast across all of Oklahoma and north Texas on Friday.
Unsettled conditions remain over the area overnight into Friday as a complex low pressure system stretches across the state from the Gulf to W Atlantic with high pressure situated to the north. Low pressure deepens off the Atlantic coast and pulls away NE by late Friday allowing winds to gradually shift to the N/NW locally by late afternoon with cloudy conditions beginning to improve. The broad deep-layered trough with multiple surface centers will continue to impact our weather through tonight. Most of the rain should end as the upper-level trough pushes east of our region and the frontal low east of Florida moves away to the northeast.
Forecast soundings keep the low-levels moist overnight. This should help mix out the low-level stratus that has plagued our skies since last night. A weak cold front is progged to push through the CWA Friday night.
453 PM MST Thu Nov 16 2023 Key Messages: - Mild this weekend - Much colder for Thanksgiving Northwest winds will continue to decrease through the rest of the afternoon and evening as an area of cold high pressure slips in to the region behind a cold front that passed through earlier today.
A mild weather system will exit northern Utah by early this evening, with high pressure bringing dry and mild conditions Friday.
234 PM MST Thu Nov 16 2023 Key Messages: - Mild this weekend - Much colder for Thanksgiving Northwest winds will continue to decrease through the rest of the afternoon and evening as an area of cold high pressure slips in to the region behind a cold front that passed through earlier today.
521 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) The upper pattern today has a ridge extending from Mexico up across TX and NM with a low spinning off the CA Coast.
411 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023 High pressure will move off to our east tonight and a strong cold front will approach from the west Friday and move across the region Friday night.
306 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Tonight through tomorrow: The upper level low of in the Gulf Coast will continue to move east as high pressure builds into our area with ridging over the eastern half. A combination of lingering clouds and redeveloping cloud cover this evening will result in generally mostly cloudy skies ahead of an approaching cold front.
Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 521 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 (This evening through Friday) The West Central TX area remains under zonal to near weak ridging aloft. High clouds continue to stream into the area as an upper low off the CA coast filters moisture from the Baja region into the Southern Plains. As such, overnight lows will be on the mild side tonight in the low to mid 50s. Cooler air will begin to slowly work its way in behind the boundary, keeping areas in the Big Country in the mid to upper 60s tomorrow. Further south in the Heartland and along the I-10 corridor, temperatures look to be comparable to today with the cooler air losing most of its punch by the time it reaches the area tomorrow afternoon.
(This evening through Friday night) A cold front currently across northwest Kansas and east-central Colorado will move across the Panhandles tonight. This cold front will keep highs down around average on Friday with readings in the 60's.
542 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Much cooler conditions settle in this evening behind a cold front.
619 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023 High pressure will move off to our east tonight and a strong cold front will approach from the west Friday and move across the region Friday night.
Going into tomorrow, the trough digging over the Great Lakes will start impending on the area and bring a cold front along with it. Out ahead of the front, compressional warming will allow temps to be even warmer than today (about 5 degrees warmer) while keeping rain chances minimal.
541 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) A modest 500 mb ridge will continue to build north out of neighboring Mexico. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s to a few lower 60s Friday night, slightly warmer than normal. Friday high temperatures will be in the lower 80s, well above normal.
Some mid clouds, some high clouds, and we remain dry, however, it's going to feel much different tonight than it did last night with overnight lows 10-15 degree warmer. Temperatures currently range from the mid 60s on the plateau to the low 70s west of the plateau. High pressure to our east is providing southerly flow into the area. Cloud cover will start to increase this evening as a broad trough approaches the area. A cold front will approach during the day on Friday with some shower activity ahead of the front.
A cold front meanwhile advances from the Plains and looks to extend from eastern Texas to far western Tennessee by late Friday afternoon. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge across the region will keep rain-free conditions through Friday. Lows tonight range from the lower 50s well inland to near 60 at the coast.
Temperatures are expected to gradually fall into the low-mid 50s after midnight tonight. A cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma late tonight (early Friday morning).
Upper ridging is expected to lead to mild and dry conditions this weekend with high temperatures each day around 50 degrees and overnight lows in the 20s and 30s. 17th PATTERN: Recent snowfall has ended and skies are beginning to clear, aside from some lingering stratus north and west of Malta which has descended to become freezing fog. Warming high pressure will continue to build into the region through the coming weekend.
544 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 (This evening through Friday night) A cold front currently across northwest Kansas and east-central Colorado will move across the Panhandles tonight. This cold front will keep highs down around average on Friday with readings in the 60's.
The transition to upper level ridging will bring dry weather with a warming trend over the next 36 hours.
718 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023 The broad deep-layered trough with multiple surface centers will continue to impact our weather through tonight. Most of the rain should end as the upper-level trough pushes east of our region and the frontal low east of Florida moves away to the northeast.
Upper ridging is expected to lead to mild and dry conditions this weekend with high temperatures each day around 50 degrees and overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.
Key Messages: - A cold front moves through overnight bringing in cooler air for Friday with highs in the 50s.
(Today and tonight) A cold front will move through the area today, resulting in gusty north winds of 10 to 20 mph along with cooler temperatures.
1046 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 (This evening through Friday night) A cold front currently across northwest Kansas and east-central Colorado will move across the Panhandles tonight. This cold front will keep highs down around average on Friday with readings in the 60's.
159 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2023 Broad ridge will occupy the area over most of the weekend.
923 PM MST Thu Nov 16 2023 Key Messages: - Mild this weekend - Much colder for Thanksgiving Northwest winds will continue to decrease through the rest of the afternoon and evening as an area of cold high pressure slips in to the region behind a cold front that passed through earlier today.
1157 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Evening surface analyses depict a large longwave trough extending from Lake Superior all the way down through Kansas City. The associated cold front will begin making its approach into the region overnight.
126 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler today behind a passing cold front, with highs in the 50s.
(Today through Saturday) An upper level trough positioned over the Florida peninsula today will push towards the northeast through the day, inducing a rapid drying trend with upper level moisture vanishing through the day. For Saturday, a very weak cold front is expected to sweep through the peninsula, reinforcing the drier air mass over the CWA. Expect highs in the lower 80s across the area for Friday and Saturday with lows in the 60s area-wide.
239 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 (Issued 239 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023) Today through Saturday: The cold front is working its way through the area early this morning, with winds shifting to the northwest as the front passes. Saturday is looking quite pleasant, with highs in the low 50s and mostly sunny skies.