Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
600 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms along a weak cold front, will gradually dissipate as it approaches the I-70 corridor by mid-evening. 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from southern Lake Michigan southwestward to northern Missouri. High pressure will bring sunny skies and comfortable highs in the middle to upper 70s on Wednesday.
Rainfall rates have rapidly diminished late this evening along the ridges of the Laurel Highlands. There is a slight chance for a few light showers or sprinkles over our northwestern counties due to the combination of lift along the cold front and modest boundary layer modification by Lake Erie.
Fortunately northerly winds will remain relatively light, generally below 10 mph, and keep the threat for significant wildfire growth and spread on the lower end.
1012 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 There will be spotty showers regionwide with a cold front moving through tonight. Meanwhile, a cold front across the central Great Lakes will push through the region late tonight. the aforementioned cold front will be exiting to our east. while its driving longwave trough will plow across our region to the St Lawrence valley. Forcing from the sharp longwave trough and diurnal instability will lend itself to producing more scattered showers. As low level moisture thins and high pressure approaches from the Upper Great Lakes late Wednesday and Wednesday evening. It will be a notably cooler night. as min temps will range from the lower 50s along the lake shores and southeast of Lake Ontario to the mid 40s most elsewhere.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) The deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF predict an upper pattern characterized by an ridge over the southwestern CONUS and a developing trough near the TX coast, resulting in subsidence over the CWA.
Cumulus and a few congestus were note over the mountains, with the best vertical extent over the higher peaks south of US50. An isolated shower or thundershower will be possible over the higher peaks, generally south of US50, with the overall best chance over the southern Sangres the rest of this afternoon and early evening. It will be about 5 to 10F warmer all regions as compared to today. There will also be a bit better chance of showers and storms over the higher terrain, especially across the San Juan mtn region. 2) Daily chances of showers and storms across the higher terrain through the Labor Day Holiday weekend.
558 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Isolated to widely scattered showers are popping up along a cold front over far southeast Iowa into central Illinois. This cold front will continue to move slowly to the south tonight into early Wednesday morning, driven by a short wave over the Great Lakes and high pressure dropping into the Upper Midwest.
Skies are mostly clear, it's fairly dry in the low-levels, and winds should be light in most areas resulting in good radiational cooling. The heat will produce steep low level lapse rates which could end up creating a couple light showers over the higher terrain.
558 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 A cold front drops through the region this evening bringing isolated showers. Then, temperatures trend warmer the remainder of the week. Mixing 900 mb thermal profiles to sfc would support previously forecasted highs around 70 or in the lower 70s.
Northeast to north winds continue to bring cooler and drier air southward into our region. The pressure gradient between Idalia to our distant southeast and high pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley will produce breezy conditions on Wednesday. The models remain very warm and dry for the Labor Day weekend as a 500 mb ridge builds over our region.
CAMS suggest areas along the high terrain of the Appalachians will continue to see this activity over the next few hours. In the upper levels a trough was over the eastern third of the country with a weak frontal boundary over the eastern and southern part of the forecast area.
526 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 (This evening through Wednesday Night) More quiet weather is expected through the short term, as northeast winds continue to advect a relatively cooler and less humid airmass into the region. Although, a few areas in SW Arkansas may only top out in the lower 90s. Slightly warmer overnight temperatures can be expected Wednesday night, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Continued NNE winds around 10 mph, with occasional higher gusts, could yield a rapid spread of wildfires once again given the low RH's expected.
629 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF predict an upper pattern characterized by an ridge over the southwestern CONUS and a developing trough near the TX coast, resulting in subsidence over the CWA.
High pressure overhead will push temperatures to record levels through mid week. Fewer storms around this afternoon, but as high pressure shifts back east of the area we'll see increasing storms again as early as late Wednesday.
713 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Showers and embedded thunder along a cold front will weaken and then dissipate as the front shifts into KPTK and points south during the evening.
This evening through Tuesday Dry and sunny conditions are expected through the afternoon, as a brief ridge axis passes through. Temperatures will peak warmer than yesterday, around five degrees above normal for most locations. By 00z, the ridge will begin to be pushed out as a negatively tilted trough across the northwest extends toward Wyoming. The bigger impact from this trough will be fire weather conditions tomorrow. This will create elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the area, as a dry cold front pushes east and winds respond to a tightened pressure gradient.
This drying extends to the low levels where dewpoints will fall into the 40s this afternoon within surface ridging.
We remain under a ridge, with an upper-level front approaching from the west.
The primary cold front is currently approaching the WI state line, with a lake enhanced segment of the front seen on the MKE terminal surging down the lakeshore areas of Racine and Kenosha counties in southeastern WI. Much cooler weather is expected for Wednesday, with temperatures only topping out in the low to mid 70s. The high swim risk will quickly develop behind the frontal passage late this afternoon and will persist into Wednesday night before things gradually improve for Thursday.
(Today and tonight) West Central Texas will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge today that is centered across the Desert Southwest.
00z surface map indicated a cold front stretched from northern IN southwest through central IL and into northern MO. Ahead of the front, a zone of convergence where dewpoints pooled in the lower 70s, was producing a broken band of showers. Winds veer north behind the front, then northeast later tonight, and begin transporting cooler and less humid air into the region. 25 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from southern Lake Michigan southwestward to northern Missouri. High pressure will bring sunny skies and comfortable highs in the middle to upper 70s on Wednesday. Barnes Another pleasant day in the 70s will be noted on Thursday before the upper trough retreats and ridging builds eastward into the Midwest/Ohio River Valley.
As Idalia departs the region on Thursday much drier and cooler air will move into the area and remain over the region through the weekend. There is some concerns as Idalia interacts with an upper trough that we could get some stronger gusts to mix down to the surface, mainly late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Temperatures for Wednesday still expected to only reach the lower 80s due to plenty of cloud cover and increase in rainfall coverage through the day. Thursday may be cooler behind the exiting Idalia as cooler air moves southward creating weak cold air damming. An upper ridge begins to build over the region, resulting in a gradual warmup through the late week and weekend.
Latest water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis depict a ~595-dm ridge spread out from southern CA into the central/southern plains, along with a pair of troughs over the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region. Short range ensembles agree the ridge and western trough pair will progress east during the day Wednesday, combining to support another warm late summer day across southwest KS as lee cyclogenesis commences ahead of the trough over the northern plains, fostering increasing southerly winds today, and subsidence ahead of the ridge promotes compressional warming. As a result, afternoon highs will again be in the low/mid 90s. Overnight, the surface pressure field will be maintained over the central plains allowing winds to stay elevated, however clear skies will engender at least some radiational cooling with lows dropping into the low 60s.
1046 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Isolated to widely scattered showers are popping up along a cold front over far southeast Iowa into central Illinois. This cold front will continue to move slowly to the south tonight into early Wednesday morning, driven by a short wave over the Great Lakes and high pressure dropping into the Upper Midwest. East-northeast flow will continue to pump cooler air into the region, which will bring temperatures down as much as 10 degrees for Wednesday and Thursday as compared to today and tonight. This translates to highs in the mid 70s to around 80 and lows in the low to mid 50s, which is 5-10 degrees below normal for late August.
206 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 High pressure and cooler air is expected to filter into the region. There is a slight chance for a few sprinkles over our northwestern counties due to the combination of lift along the cold front and modest boundary layer modification by Lake Erie. High pressure, northwest flow and eastern troughing will keep conditions near average and dry through the rest of the work week. This ridge is expected to shunt any impacts from Idalia to the south, keeping our region quiet. By the weekend, ensembles are honing in on the development of a western trough which may serve to amplify an eastern ridge.
Thursday's temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, which won't be bad, but winds will be quite breezy out of the south during the afternoon and evening. This will be due to the low-level flow field responding to an upper-level trough passing to our north.
(Today) In contrast to our neighbors to the south and east, uneventful weather is expected today across the Tennessee Valley as high pressure nudges south below upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side, with afternoon highs limited to the low to mid 80s in the east and upper 80s in the west where cloud cover is less of a factor. One noticeable change today will be the increase in breezy conditions as the Tennessee Valley remains wedged between high pressure to the north and a major hurricane to the south, resulting in increasing gradient winds today.
The lowest visibilities (1/4 mile) currently extend from Hallock to Roseau, but they range from 2 to 5 miles in other spots throughout the RRV. Beyond Thursday minimal chances for precipitation are expected with high confidence in short wave ridging building back in as we begin a warming trend for the Labor Day weekend.
Expect high temperatures to top out in the lower to mid 70s inland and upper 60s along the lakeshore! Winds remain breezy over the lake and along the shore, with generally light winds expected for inland areas. High temperatures Thursday accordingly remain below normal for this time of year, albeit a bit warmer than today, in the mid-upper 70s for inland areas, and lower 70s near the lakeshore.
Skies are mostly clear, it's fairly dry in the low-levels, and winds should be light in most areas resulting in good radiational cooling. The heat will produce steep low level lapse rates which could end up creating a couple light showers over the higher terrain. Another day of warm and mainly dry conditions expected Thursday under weak ridging aloft. Can't rule out a low chance for an isolated shower/weak storm over the high country. Highs climb into the low 90s for the lower elevations, with even a few mid 90 readings possible across portions of the plains.
1150 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Updated Aviation Discussion Dry, breezy, and very warm conditons are expected through late this afternoon and evening when a Pacific cold front brings a period of gusty showers and thunderstorms that will persist into the overnight hours. Much cooler, showery, and windy conditions are then expected Wednesday into Thursday.
1254 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 A cold front drops through the region this evening bringing isolated showers. Then, temperatures trend warmer the remainder of the week. Mixing 900 mb thermal profiles to sfc would support previously forecasted highs around 70 or in the lower 70s.
1217 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Forecast area will remain on the eastern edge of a flattened ridge aloft, with a dry northeasterly flow at the surface. If the winds were stronger with the low RH values, a Red Flag Warning would have to be considered for portions of the area.
(Today) NE-SW oriented s/wv trof axis is making its way across the south- central CONUS this morning. The HRRR suggests an isolated shower is possible near the terrain of W AR closer to the trof axis this afternoon. Highs should be a touch cooler than yesterday, but probably not as cool as NBM suggests.
Chances for any precipitation coming with this front will be limited to northwestern SD where moisture associated with the low will be slightly better. Ridge shifts to the east late in the week as a deepening trough develops in the western CONUS. There's a very broad consensus of western US troughing beginning to shift east and bring chances for cooler weather and precip in the early week.
Despite some drier air slowly moving in with a passing cold front, still expect the fog to hold on through the mid morning hours. At the surface, high pressure will center over the Great Lakes, extending influence southward into our region. With lower dew points tonight, lows are expected to be cooler in the low to mid 50s.
231 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Continued dry and cooler conditions today with breezy north and northeast winds. Those north and northeast winds are also brining in drier and cooler air that will allow for highs today to be right around 80 and overnight lows in the 50s. Tomorrow will be a touch cooler with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 with overnight lows again in the 50s.
412 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 A cold front crosses northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania through sunrise.
Rain chances today and tomorrow are nearly zero area wide thanks to the upper level ridge to the west that will broaden and slide to the east slightly.
Should see a response in the low level temperatures. Given the NBM has been running a couple of degrees to cool and the proximity of the upper ridge will likely raise highs across much of the area a few degrees.
(Today through Thursday night) The influence of the main H500 high pressure system centered over the Grand Canyon as of the latest 07Z obs, will slowly shift east into the central New Mexico through tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will range from the lower to upper 90s.
425 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 A surge of cooler air will be observed today in the wake of cold front. A dry surface cold front to push south of the area early this morning. In the low level CAA pattern in the wake of the cold front stratocumulus clouds to develop into the region from the north early this morning. As the trof shifts to the east. Temperatures look to be 6 to 10 degrees below normal with highs from the lower/mid 70s north to the upper 70s south. As it does, the cooler air mass will shift east away from the Ohio Valley, allowing warming temperatures. In addition, the longwave ridge anchored over the southern Plains will shift east into the region.
1101 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 A trough maintains it position over eastern Canada into the Ohio Valley; high pressure can be found to the west with another wave making its way onshore over the Pacific Northwest. There is a subtle upper level wave associated with the main trough moving south from Kansas into Oklahoma.
Upper level analysis shows positively tilted ridge from the Four Corners region to the northern and central Plains. Low pressure is located over eastern WA, moving east- northeast. Very warm and mainly dry weather will continue through the rest of the week and a good portion of the holiday weekend as ridging and upper level high settle over the central US for much of the period. For today, highs will mostly be in the 90s, with 80s over the higher Black Hills. Upper trough/low to the west will move across the northern Rockies and into south central Canada through Thursday morning. Thursday will be a bit cooler, but still at least slightly above average across the area.
RMS The main thing to note in the short term is the upper low and associated cold front moving though the region bringing strong winds. This evening, winds increase to more south/southeasterly as the low passes to our north along the Montana/Canada border. We are currently under upper ridging which is bringing temperatures around 10 degrees above average in the 90s for most of the region. The passage of the cold front and the trough coming through will drop temperatures 5-10 degrees in many locations Wednesday.
217 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 A cold front will swing through the Ohio Valley tonight with another surge of cooler air on tap for Wednesday in the wake of the front. A cold front will move through the area from north to south tonight. With the cool northerly breezes, and low clouds, temperatures will be slow to respond especially central Ohio where it may take much of the day to get into the lower 70s in some spots. A little warmer further south, but again how long the clouds hold in will determine full warming potential. Best chances for fuller sun/warmer temps will be across northern KY and southeast IN. Northeasterly flow continues in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere, keeping temperatures below seasonal normals in the 70s on Thursday.
This will put the area at the lower end of coastal flood advisory conditions.
Recent GOES-16 WV and RAP 500-mb analysis showed high pressure centered across southern California with high amplitude ridging extending north-northwest into the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. Northwest of this feature, a negatively-tilted upper-level trough was apparent off the coast of British Columbia extending southeast across the Pacific Northwest. A broad upper-level trough was situated near the Hudson Bay extending southwest across the Ohio River Basin and the Upper Mississippi River Basin. At the surface, high pressure encompassed the region resulting in a quiet day across the local area. Heading into Wednesday and Thursday we will start to see temperatures trending back into the above normal range as the upper-level ridge begins to shift further east. The aforementioned upper-level ridge builds further east across the southern Plains, encompassing the central CONUS.
Today through Thursday: Water vapor imagery this afternoon features northwesterly flow across the central CONUS east of a building ridge, with a trough intruding over the Pacific Northwest.
high pressure will set up shop over the Great Lakes today, bringing quiet conditions. Clouds over eastern WI will be tougher to get rid of as the cooler air flowing over the relatively warmer water of the Great Lakes will continue to produce some lake clouds. Highs look to be a little cooler than normal, climbing into the upper 60s to mid 70s, with slightly cooler readings near Lake Michigan due to a weak onshore flow. a dry night is on tap for the area as the high slowly shifts into Lower Michigan. another quiet day in store with plenty of sunshine as the high drifts across Lower Michigan. Look for highs in the mid and upper 70s, with slightly cooler readings near Lake Michigan.
Impacts from Idalia will gradually diminish during the evening with low temperatures expected to be in the lower-mid 70s.
241 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Currently, the low over Washington is bringing a cold front tracking NE through MT. Hi-Res models show convection associated with the low generally developing in the afternoon NNW of Billings, tracking east into the evening (20-40% chance). TS Deepening low along the Pacific coast will allow southerly flow aloft to redevelop, bringing warmer air and increasing monsoon moisture thru the end of the week.
Areas of cirrus cigs, with some lower AC, will continue to spread E overnight across the region, ahead of an upper trough that will slide SE into N TX and the region after daybreak. These cigs may eventually thin during the day, especially as this trough drops farther SE into SE TX/Cntrl and Srn LA later this afternoon.
1144 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 MVFR stratus will work into the area overnight within northwest to north flow in the wake of a cold front. Expect ceilings in/around 1500-2000 feet with these conditions most likely persisting into Wednesday morning before high pressure settles into the area and brings clearing from Wednesday afternoon into evening. Northerly winds of 10+ knots on Wednesday will subside quickly by evening as the pressure gradient slackens with the encroachment of this high. A good radiative cooling pattern with lows areawide expected to be in the lower 40s.
912 PM PDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Cooler weather is shaping up across Southern California, after one more hot day on Wednesday.
A weak trough was noted over parts of south central Minnesota. A ridge of high pressure extends from Saskatchewan through the western High Plains through the Four Corners region toward southern California into the Pacific Ocean. A large trough was located over the Pacific Northwest Coast.
Cooler than normal temperatures will continue on Wednesday and Thursday.
1211 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) A 500mb ridge will remain nearly stationary across the Desert Southwest portion of the U. , though the axis of the ridge will pivot from the Rockies into the Central Plains through the period which will shift flow from N/NNW to NE across west TX and eastern NM.
The trough and upper level low that brought the showers and storms to the west last night will be across Montana and ridge across the desert southwest. We will still have the low humidity and warm temperatures. The pattern will then shift later Thursday night as an upper level low positions itself over northern California and the ridge moves eastward and builds once again across the central and southern Plains.
Subsidence on the backside of Idalia, dry air aloft that will likely get mixed down this afternoon and it's still August all add up to us likely getting at least a few degrees warmer than it's suggesting. We have zero rain in the forecast for the next 7 days and while temperatures will warm back into the low 90s this weekend as high pressure settles back into the center of the country, our weather is going to be very benign. (06Z TAFS) High pressure has built back into Middle Tennessee, so look for mostly clear skies with the 06Z TAFs.
228 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Upper ridge will gradually build over Kansas and the central Plains the next couple of days. Meanwhile, subtle low-level cooling will try and advect into far eastern Kansas on the periphery of a cooler surface anticyclone settling south across the western Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi Valley. The maintenance of a dry low-level airmass which has proven quite resilient with respect to strong diurnal warming, should allow temperatures to still climb into the lower 90s today and Thursday.