Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Saturday) Mid-level high pressure system sitting over the northern portion of the Southern Plains. Within the next 24 hours the high will retrograde to the west over New Mexico by tomorrow evening. A weak cold front will move through the forecast area early tomorrow morning. No mentionable PoPs are in the forecast but an area of 10 to 15 PoPs were added to the forecast tomorrow afternoon for the low probability of an isolated shower or storm.
Although the heat will be the main weather hazard today, a few storms cannot be ruled out this afternoon across the region given a weakness in the ridge overhead.
ARS The upper level high pressure ridge that has brought record heat to central U.
Saturday marks the beginning of a transition as the 500mb ridge shifts westward and a front approaches northwest Oklahoma. As far a sensible weather, far northwest will likely see some cooler temperatures Saturday, other areas north of I-40 have a low chance of seeing cooler temperatures, south of I-40 will (high confidence) retain the heat.
(This evening through Saturday) The center of the upper level high will continue to weaken as it shifts west towards New Mexico. Some of the High res models are a bit more enthusiastic with the coverage this afternoon and evening than others.
After another warm and muggy day today, cooler conditions return by Saturday.
(This evening through Saturday) The upper level low pressure system sitting off the coast has allowed for widespread stratus and a well pronounced marine layer that is sitting approximately 2000-2300 feet. With the deep marine layer, onshore wind, and less mid-level moisture content, expect a continuation of cooler temperatures tonight with interiors reaching high 50s to low 60s with the coastline reaching mid to high 50s. As we approach tomorrow afternoon, the ridge sitting over the Southern Plains starts to move over towards the west, bringing some drier air and warmer temperatures to our region.
230 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - - Now if you've been walking around outside today and noticed it was still in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints around 70 and wondering where this supposed relief from the heat is, well its the cold front visible on satellite with a line of deeper cu that at 2pm was from roughly Granite Falls, to between St.
156 PM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 The Northern Rockies will be under the periphery of an upper ridge through this weekend. The showers and thunderstorms look to have greater potential to move farther eastward to the lower elevations of south central MT, including Billings, Saturday because of more moisture aloft than today.
Tonight, a cold front merging in from the north, should focus new thunderstorms along the front, and most likely near the old outflow boundary in the south. Dry advection will continue behind the cold front Saturday.
351 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 A cold front will pass across Kansas tonight as a weak disturbance traverses the northern plains. Cloud cover and possible areas of precipitation will keep temperatures cooler Saturday, with highs in the 70s and 80s from northwest to southeast.
The upper level ridge begins to move east with the RAP13 showing the ridge axis positioned over central Wyoming. This pattern will bring in drier and warmer air Saturday, but not before we. High temperatures tomorrow are forecast to be in the 70s to low 80s with the cooler temperatures further south, but those may even be a few degrees too warm if we never break out of the cloud cover.
with additional storms developing later tonight into Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front.
138 PM PDT Fri Aug 25 2023 A trough along the West Coast will continue slightly below normal temperatures through Saturday.
Kuroski (Issued 422 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023) Today through Saturday: Weak high pressure over nrn WI will across the lake this afternoon and evening, while a wave of low pressure tracks across srn IA today into central IL for this evening.
A drier air mass will continue filtering into the area today in the wake of a passing cold front. The high will bring drier conditions with near climo normal temperatures. Caa will intensify tonight as the high moves east across North Dakota and winds shift to the northeast. For now, highs are forecast to be a few degrees below average in the lower 70s to around 80. Lack of good mixing during peak heating lends itself to the lower forecast.
A surface cold front is currently draped from eastern Nebraska into northwest Kansas and will move through the forecast area this evening and overnight. Winds remains light through the period, switching to the north behind a cold front this evening.
219 PM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 High pressure aloft continues across the south central Plains. Upper ridging extends into the northern Rockies as it slides eastward toward the northern Plains. Ridge-riding waves are slowly crossing the central High Plains into Nebraska/southern SD. Northerly surface winds have brought cooler temps to the CWA. Return flow will bring warmer temperatures back in, with highs generally in the 80s.
A cold front will push through Saturday with spotty showers and perhaps a thunderstorm for the afternoon.
A cold front is also setting southward across the Ohio Valley. In addition to the downright torrid apparent temperatures, the high dew points and moderately steep lapse rates in the mid-levels are yielding 4500 to 6500 J/kg of SBCAPE across the forecast area (from south to north). Look for muggy lows primarily in the lower 70s. Additional showers and storms are expected to fire off on Saturday as the cold front slowly sags across the CWA. Heat index values should largely range from the lower 90s north to lower 100s south. That front finally sags south of the Tennessee/Kentucky border by Saturday evening, temporarily ending rain chances and ushering in cooler temperatures -- lows are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s. At the start of the forecast period, the forecast area will be on the backside a surface cold front.
(Tonight) Strong upper ridging now retrogressing SW-ward over the south/central Great Plains (southern KS, OK, TX), with maximum 500mb heights around 595 decameters was resulting in a lowering of upper heights. The higher end of this above 110 degrees has justified an Excessive Heat Warning in place for portions of northern Alabama near and west of I-65. Many locations more to the east though a bit cooler have managed to reach advisory range with apparent temperatures above 105 degrees. Very warm conditions will continue into the overnight with lows only in the low/mid 70s (which will add to the heat issues).
For Saturday afternoon, the highest chances lie from the central mountains south across the Snake Plain/Magic Valley and into the South Hills/Albion Mountains.
200 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Key Points: - Scattered afternoon thunderstorms ahead of a cold front could pose an isolated strong/severe thunderstorm threat.
207 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Hot and humid conditions along with a chance for thunderstorms will continue today ahead of a cold front moving south through the area.
209 PM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Ridge of high pressure will build into the area over the weekend bringing dry conditions and temperatures rising into the 80s and 90s, about 5 to 10 degrees above late August averages. The next time these may become issues will be midweek when the next trough and cold front come through, bringing the next drop in temperatures as well as the next rain chances.
The front stalled as expected earlier this morning near the state line, with the cooler air and stronger north/northeasterly winds near Highway 6/34. Tomorrow will be MUCH cooler than we've seen in days. The strong upper ridge will break down and retrograde back to the west as an upper trough digs into the Great Lakes. We sit in upper level northwesterly flow allowing the area to moderate cooler. However, the cool down will not last long as temperatures steadily warm up as upper level high pressure builds back into the area. Winds remain northern throughout the TAF period as the cold front has made its way through the area this morning.
33 which is in the lower 10 percentile for the day.
Of course, that's all relative because at most, we'll only be a degree warmer than yesterday.
1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 (Today through Saturday) Light and variable winds this morning will shift southeasterly this afternoon in wake of the sea breeze, as South Texas is positioned between a mid-level ridging over the South-Central Great Plains and a TUTT low over the Bay of Campeche. The center of the ridge will shift westward but the eastern periphery will still extend eastward into South Texas.
153 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 A cold front will move across Pennsylvania this afternoon and evening, bringing isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to primarily the Susquehanna Valley and points east. High pressure, over South Central Canada, will build southeast and bring a mainly dry weekend with noticeably more comfortable humidity.
1214 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level ridge has drifted south back into the Southern Plains. Through the day today, the ridge is expected to center over the Northwest Texas/Oklahoma region. Temperatures will remain on the hot side today with highs in the low to mid 100s areawide.
248 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 A cold front will move across Pennsylvania this afternoon and evening, bringing isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to primarily the Susquehanna Valley and points east. High pressure, over South Central Canada, will build southeast and bring a mainly dry weekend with noticeably more comfortable humidity.
This is due to an upper level trough off the coast, with an associated short wave having pushed through overnight bringing increased onshore flow.
304 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Winds will be on the decrease this evening as a ridge of high pressure at the surface pokes southward into the CWA through the overnight. Cooler and drier air associated with this high will allow for temps to drop down into the 50s for overnight lows. The high moves east Saturday night with return flow southerly winds developing over central SD. The large dome of high pressure over the Southern Plains at 500mb will be over the 4-corners region with northwest flow across the Northern Plains in advance of a large low off the Pacific Northwest. At the surface we'll be starting off with a large ridge of high pressure stretching from Upper MI/northern WI through southeastern SD and NE.
The expansive ridge aloft continues to slowly retrograde westward through the period as a trough pivots across the Upper Midwest on its way toward the East Coast.
Highs today will peak in the low 80s in the southern areas near the SD border, to the upper 60s along the international border where they've been under cloud cover longer. Tonight and tomorrow's temperatures will really feel the effects of this morning's cold front. Key Messages: 1) A trough will bring a chance for precipitation this weekend, with more in the forecast during the work week.
Isolated to scattered storms are beginning to develop along and behind a warm front stretching from Norton County to Logan County and across Wichita County as of 2 PM MDT. 8" over the area with the higher amounts over our Nebraska counties and the eastern half of our Kansas counties. With the low pressure center's placement south of US-40, most of the storms for now are going to be located north of I-70. As high pressure moves in over the North-Central High Plains, the low will be pushed more to the east and the storms/showers will be able to move further south. Tomorrow looks to be much cooler with highs mainly in the 70s.
1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) With the ever-present ridge remaining broad and just to the east of the area, temperatures stay above normal for most with mid to upper 90s for most. Tonight and into Saturday morning will see lows in the 60s in the higher elevation to the west and low to mid 70s to the east. The higher elevations getting away with "cooler" temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Most of the storms focused over the higher terrain. (Tonight through Friday) The oppressive ridge that has been sitting overhead for days will finally begin to migrate back to the southwest on Saturday. A surface boundary will push through during the day Saturday with an associated wind shift to the north, but any cooler air will be well behind this feature so temperatures will not change much.
Expect a slight uptick into the lower 80s before they fall with dusk. Based on the latest mesoanalysis, most of the showers and storms will be south of our county warning area save for a narrow line of building cu moving south of the PA turnpike that is likely associated with the cold front. This may produce a brief shower southeast of Pittsburgh and over the higher terrain of WV as it moves through.
The upper level ridge that has produced extremely hot conditions across the Mid-South will start to shift to the west over the weekend.
Widely scattered thunderstorms developing later tonight into Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front.
A surface cold front is currently draped from eastern Nebraska into northwest Kansas and will move through the forecast area this evening and overnight.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue this evening, but coverage tapers off over the next few days as high pressure moves into the region.
Precipitation was associated with weak energy moving through the ridge,. Arthur The Northern Rockies will be under the periphery of an upper ridge through this weekend. The showers and thunderstorms look to have greater potential to move farther eastward to the lower elevations of south central MT, including Billings, Saturday because of more moisture aloft than today.
An upper trough is forecast to be nearly stationary offshore from Oregon through the weekend.
753 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Aviation - Risk for a few showers this evening A cold front will be tracking south through the zones tonight.
627 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 The upper level ridge that has produced extremely hot conditions across the Mid-South will start to shift to the west over the weekend.
614 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Key Points: - Scattered afternoon thunderstorms ahead of a cold front could pose an isolated strong/severe thunderstorm threat.
(Rest of tonight) Another rather steamy night is upon us here in the TN Valley, with temperatures at 9 PM generally in the low/mid 80s and dew points in the mid/upr 70s.
Seasonable cool weather may briefly develop mid week with cold frontal passage. Weak convergence along slowly moving cold front is promoting mostly isolated showers this evening southwest of Pittsburgh, and will continue to offer low chance lighter precipitation tonight as it slowly exits southeast. Subsidence aloft within cooler NW flow will offer more seasonable temperature Saturday with surface ridging maintaining dry conditions.
636 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 (Tonight) Strong upper ridging now retrogressing SW-ward over the south/central Great Plains (southern KS, OK, TX), with maximum 500mb heights around 595 decameters was resulting in a lowering of upper heights. The higher end of this above 110 degrees has justified an Excessive Heat Warning in place for portions of northern Alabama near and west of I-65. Many locations more to the east though a bit cooler have managed to reach advisory range with apparent temperatures above 105 degrees. Very warm conditions will continue into the overnight with lows only in the low/mid 70s (which will add to the heat issues).
Outflow from this complex had combined with the synoptic cold front across NW KS, where gradient winds post frontal were continuing to gust to near 50 mph, even away from convection. Cold front currently passing Scott City at 7 pm will accelerate this evening, reaching GCK/DDC no later than 9 pm, and clearing Medicine Lodge by midnight. Most thunderstorms so far this evening have lived short lives given very low bulk shear, but linear forcing on the surging cold front after sunset, and some modest shear increases/moisture convergence should lead to a modest increase in storm organization with time this evening. A cold front will pass across Kansas tonight as a weak disturbance traverses the northern plains. Cloud cover and possible areas of precipitation will keep temperatures cooler Saturday, with highs in the 70s and 80s from northwest to southeast.
652 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 (This evening through Saturday) The center of the upper level high will continue to weaken as it shifts west towards New Mexico. Some of the High res models are a bit more enthusiastic with the coverage this afternoon and evening than others.
1024 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 A weak cold front will drop south of the area this evening. A small disturbance will drop southeast across the region late tonight into Saturday morning followed by a secondary cold front Saturday afternoon and evening.
However, the Lower Keys did receive precipitation as a result of the shower activity. The overnight temperatures in the Upper Keys are expected to decrease to the lower 80s, with a possibility of reaching the upper 70s, as a result of radiational cooling. While the Middle and Lower Keys should remain near the lower 80s. Ridging over the Southeast will slowly weaken over the next several days, as a trough develops over the Eastern Seaboard and the Western Atlantic waters, resulting in breezes slackening through the weekend.
844 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 A cold front will move across Pennsylvania this afternoon and evening, bringing isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to primarily the Susquehanna Valley and points east. High pressure, over South Central Canada, will build southeast and bring a mainly dry weekend with noticeably more comfortable humidity.
518 PM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 High pressure aloft continues across the south central Plains. Upper ridging extends into the northern Rockies as it slides eastward toward the northern Plains. Ridge-riding waves are slowly crossing the central High Plains into Nebraska/southern SD. Northerly surface winds have brought cooler temps to the CWA. Return flow will bring warmer temperatures back in, with highs generally in the 80s.
(The rest of tonight) At mid evening the mid/upper level high pressure center was located just west of Eastern Oklahoma. riding over the top of the mid/upper level ridge. the surface to low level frontal boundary is progged to sag southeast reaching into Northeast Oklahoma late tonight/early morning Saturday as the upper level high pressure center stays off to the west. (Tonight through Friday) The oppressive ridge that has been sitting overhead for days will finally begin to migrate back to the southwest on Saturday. A surface boundary will push through during the day Saturday with an associated wind shift to the north, but any cooler air will be well behind this feature so temperatures will not change much.
Tomorrow afternoon, a cold front, located in southern MO, will push through and bring in a chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sturdy high pressure overhead should keep light upper level winds and the pool of tropical moisture locked in place through tomorrow.
Skies are mostly sunny across the island chain, which allowed temperatures to climb into the lower 90s at all island communities this afternoon. The climatological North Atlantic ridge will continue to be disrupted by an upper-level trough digging across the East Coast and the western Atlantic.
-Enriquez PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Ridge of high pressure will build into the area over the weekend bringing dry conditions and temperatures rising into the 80s and 90s, about 5 to 10 degrees above late August averages. The next time these may become issues will be midweek when the next trough and cold front come through, bringing the next drop in temperatures as well as the next rain chances. By the afternoon, winds shift to more northwesterly with a cold front passage at 5-10kts.
Also, cooler afternoon temperatures and extensive cloud cover significantly inhibited the heavy rain potential. However, surface temperatures in the low to mid 60s have kept instability in check.
A cold front will pass across Kansas tonight as a weak disturbance traverses the northern plains. Cloud cover and possible areas of precipitation will keep temperatures cooler Saturday, with highs in the 70s and 80s from northwest to southeast.
603 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Winds will be on the decrease this evening as a ridge of high pressure at the surface pokes southward into the CWA through the overnight. Cooler and drier air associated with this high will allow for temps to drop down into the 50s for overnight lows. The high moves east Saturday night with return flow southerly winds developing over central SD. The large dome of high pressure over the Southern Plains at 500mb will be over the 4-corners region with northwest flow across the Northern Plains in advance of a large low off the Pacific Northwest. At the surface we'll be starting off with a large ridge of high pressure stretching from Upper MI/northern WI through southeastern SD and NE.
Winds will be on the decrease this evening as a ridge of high pressure at the surface pokes southward into the CWA through the overnight. Cooler and drier air associated with this high will allow for temps to drop down into the 50s for overnight lows. The high moves east Saturday night with return flow southerly winds developing over central SD. The large dome of high pressure over the Southern Plains at 500mb will be over the 4-corners region with northwest flow across the Northern Plains in advance of a large low off the Pacific Northwest. At the surface we'll be starting off with a large ridge of high pressure stretching from Upper MI/northern WI through southeastern SD and NE.
826 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 A cold front will move across Pennsylvania this afternoon and evening, bringing isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to primarily the Susquehanna Valley and points east. High pressure, over South Central Canada, will build southeast and bring a mainly dry weekend with noticeably more comfortable humidity.
732 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 A weak cold front will drop south of the area this evening. A small disturbance will drop southeast across the region late tonight into Saturday morning followed by a secondary cold front Saturday afternoon and evening.
617 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Mid-level high pressure system sitting over the northern portion of the Southern Plains. Within the next 24 hours the high will retrograde to the west over New Mexico by tomorrow evening. A weak cold front will move through the forecast area early tomorrow morning. No mentionable PoPs are in the forecast but an area of 10 to 15 PoPs were added to the forecast tomorrow afternoon for the low probability of an isolated shower or storm.
The front stalled as expected earlier this morning near the state line, with the cooler air and stronger north/northeasterly winds near Highway 6/34. Tomorrow will be MUCH cooler than we've seen in days. The strong upper ridge will break down and retrograde back to the west as an upper trough digs into the Great Lakes. We sit in upper level northwesterly flow allowing the area to moderate cooler. However, the cool down will not last long as temperatures steadily warm up as upper level high pressure builds back into the area.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Northern Michigan remains squarely centered between slowly retrograding southern Plains thermal/upper level ridge and broad northeast NOAM centered troughing. That clearing/dry air infiltration and building high pressure sets the stage for a good nocturnal temperature response tonight.
Additional shower and thunderstorm chances will be observed this afternoon and evening as a secondary cold front drops south into the region.