Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Guidance/CAMs continue to struggle with QPF amounts and placement, but HREF probability-matched mean approach suggests that the highest rainfall amounts will occur over/near the Saginaw Bay area during the afternoon hours where sfc convergence is maximized. Drier air mass will be over the area on Sunday and a mostly sunny and warmer day is forecast.
Sunday, light winds and generally clear to partly cloudy skies will lead to high temperatures in the low to mid 80s away from the immediate lakeshore.
1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 (Today through Sunday Night ) West-northwesterly flow will prevail aloft over AR through the period between strong high pressure centered over the southwest US and broad low pressure over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. For tonight, convective activity over eastern OK/northwest AR will be enhanced by a weak cold front dropping south into the area from KS/MO. Mostly cloudy and noticeably cooler conditions with widespread light to moderate precipitation are on tap for Sunday as the cold front stalls somewhere over central to south central AR. Highs Sunday afternoon will range from the lower 70s over the northern higher terrain to the lower 80s over the far south.
1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Summary: Cooler with a few showers and storms possible along the North Shore and northwest Wisconsin today.
Models soundings show little moisture on Sunday which will limit risk of showers as another weak trough axis moves through.
247 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Two rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected, the first this afternoon and evening and the next on Sunday as a cold front crosses the area.
SUNDAY: Excellent weather for outdoor conditions continues with a warmer day Sunday. Deeper mixing into slightly warmer temperatures aloft will result in highs in the 80s, edging closer back to normal for this time of year.
Steady warm-up expected throughout the work week as ridging begins to build in from the desert southwest. Warmer interior pockets such as the southern Salinas valley and North Bay valleys may see temperatures reach the low 80s.
Otherwise, expect mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms along the sea breeze, piedmont trough, and any resultant outflows with convection mostly ending during the evening. Highs today will generally reach the low 90s with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.
Later tonight additional thunderstorms develop in the high Plains then move off to the southeast and remain to the southwest of the forecast area over western and south central Kansas. Lows tonight dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s as high pressure builds in tonight.
(This afternoon through Sunday Night) Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a trough tracking through our area which is aiding in the increased storm coverage through the remainder of the short-term period. Isolated to scattered activity out there this afternoon should pick up in coverage this evening and then more so Sunday as the trough's associated cold front moves through Middle TN. Storms will come to an end west to east Sunday night with drying and cooling conditions behind the cold front. As such, Sunday's high temperatures will trend down several degrees compared to today with cooler lows expected as well.
1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging remains centered over northern Mexico early this morning with west-northwesterly flow aloft continuing over much of the central CONUS.
The daytime high temperatures today ranged from the lower to mid 90s. The highest recorded temperature was observed at Marathon International Airport, as reported by the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS). Similar to the previous night, the high- resolution guidance does not indicate the development of showersÂ over the local waters and island chain.
Radar showing weak outflow boundaries moving southwest to northeast across the the lower valley producing wind gusts up to 30 MPH.
High temps today remaining about 7-12 degrees below normal as a weak trough passes through keeping the marine layer deep and penetrating well inland. Trough influence begins to lessen late Sunday as it shifts inland and is quickly eroded by the building high pressure.
1022 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Update Weak high pressure is situated just upstream of the area over Wisconsin and Minnesota with a weak low positioned over Southeast Lower Michigan. The gradient tonight is very lax and will likely allow areas of fog to form, especially given dew points holding right now in the upper 50s to lower 60s and forecast lows in the lower to middle 50s. Models soundings show little moisture on Sunday which will limit risk of showers as another weak trough axis moves through.
Current data favors a track more toward SE OK, where the higher PoPs will be placed. Lacy (Sunday afternoon through Saturday) Cooler and drier air will settle south into the region with the front tomorrow, giving us a one day respite from the nightly MCS activity.
833 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 After a few showers south of I-70 early this evening, a cooler and drier airmass will settle into central Illinois tonight. Partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail on Sunday with highs topping out in the lower to middle 80s. Following a cold frontal passage, drier air has been advecting in this evening, with gradually decreasing cloud cover and dewpoints decreasing by 2 to 3 degrees (F) over the last three hours. Erwin 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front settling southward toward the Ohio River. Cooler/drier conditions will filter into the region on light northwesterly winds behind the front. Thanks to ample sunshine heating the dry airmass, highs on Sunday will climb back into the lower to middle 80s.
Temperatures will be a touch warmer, but still a few degrees below normal, with highs in the lower to mid 80s. To the west, a rather unsettled pattern emerges, with a shallow H500 trough extending from the ArkLaTex to the Southern California coast.
437 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Western NOAM ridge will slowly shift east and breakdown as the central Canadian upper trough remains in place.
(Sunday afternoon through Saturday) Cooler and drier air will settle south into the region with the front tomorrow, giving us a one day respite from the nightly MCS activity.
608 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 After a few showers south of I-70 early this evening, a cooler and drier airmass will settle into central Illinois tonight. Partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail on Sunday with highs topping out in the lower to middle 80s. 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front settling southward toward the Ohio River. Cooler/drier conditions will filter into the region on light northwesterly winds behind the front. Thanks to ample sunshine heating the dry airmass, highs on Sunday will climb back into the lower to middle 80s.
608 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Summary: Warm Sunday ahead of a cold front that will bring chances for a few strong to severe storms to northeastern Minnesota. High pressure was building across the region in the wake of a cold front pushing into central Wisconsin. Dry and comfortable conditions are expected for most of tonight as the high sags to the south. A trough will push out of southern Manitoba/southern Saskatchewan during the early morning hours. A cold front will then follow for Sunday out of Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Ahead of the front, southwesterly winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph will bring warmer temperatures in with highs reaching the 80s in most areas.
456 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Summary: Warm Sunday ahead of a cold front that will bring chances for a few strong to severe storms to northeastern Minnesota. High pressure was building across the region in the wake of a cold front pushing into central Wisconsin. Dry and comfortable conditions are expected for most of tonight as the high sags to the south. A trough will push out of southern Manitoba/southern Saskatchewan during the early morning hours. A cold front will then follow for Sunday out of Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Ahead of the front, southwesterly winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph will bring warmer temperatures in with highs reaching the 80s in most areas.
By early afternoon temperatures had warmed into the low to mid 70s. With mostly clear skies and light winds overnight, expect to see temperatures drop off into the low to mid 50s once again tonight, with a few areas in far northern Iowa likely brushing the upper 40s. Sunday afternoon will be similar to today, warming a couple degrees warmer into the low 80s.
An area of low pressure moving southeastward through North Dakota, heading for Minnesota is expected to produce some isolated to scattered coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Discussion: Will continue to see gradual height falls aloft as broad troughing settles across the region from the north. Model soundings show elevated instability overnight, along with increasing PWAT values and freezing levels, so while severe storms are unlikely, localized heavy rain and flash flooding may be a concern. That said, the trend of increasing PWAT and freezing levels will continue during the day Sunday so storms with efficient warm rain processes and resulting heavy rainfall will be possible. Storm motions should keep the threat to the low side, but any areas that get repeated rounds of thunderstorm activity this afternoon and tonight could be candidates for potential flooding issues tomorrow.
The upper level ridge to the west will continue to amplify through the short term, with eastern periphery H5 heights on Sunday increasing 2-3dam compared to today. This will lead to warmer temperatures tomorrow, with highs forecast in the mid 90s across the Hill Country and upper 90s to 102 elsewhere, with the exception of the southwest Winter Garden Region where highs could reach around 105.
Tonight: Overnight lows fall into the lower to middle 60s with clouds lingering across the region. High temperatures climb into the lower to middle 80s on Sunday afternoon, with the cooler temperatures across southern Missouri where cloud cover lingers into the afternoon.
625 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a trough tracking through our area which is aiding in the increased storm coverage through the remainder of the short-term period. Isolated to scattered activity out there this afternoon should pick up in coverage this evening and then more so Sunday as the trough's associated cold front moves through Middle TN. Storms will come to an end west to east Sunday night with drying and cooling conditions behind the cold front. As such, Sunday's high temperatures will trend down several degrees compared to today with cooler lows expected as well.
625 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) 500 mb ridging centered over West Texas and North Central Mexico is slowly spreading east (over deep South Texas and the West Gulf), with broad upper troughing over the Southeast United States. Gulf high pressure will support moderate south southeast winds and another day of a mix of low clouds and sun on Sunday.
719 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Two rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected, the first this afternoon and evening and the next on Sunday as a cold front crosses the area.
804 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023 A 825-600mb cold front is currently pushing eastward across Southeast Michigan. Low level cold advection in the wake of the thetae ridge will support saturation and stratus. Weak low pressure is now located directly over SE Michigan with some gaps in the clouds providing a diurnal heating boost to generate additional convective showers through the afternoon and evening. Instability has remained weak due to surface temperatures only in the lower to mid 70s and weak mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km. The low is slow to depart this evening but coverage and intensity of showers is expected to wane with the loss of daytime heating. This should result in the mainly dry passage of a weak secondary cold front as the corridor of PV advection sweeps through during peak heating.
1029 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023 A cold front crosses the area Sunday with a better coverage of showers and storms.
Most of this activity should exit the area around mid evening as a cold front begins to push into the our area from the north tonight, with isolated showers still possible overnight.
(Today and tonight) The persistent upper level anticyclone over northern Mexico will begin to amplify and expand northward today, with a 500mb ridge axis centered over New Mexico progged to extend northward over the central Rockies by this evening. The aforementioned expansion of the upper ridge and its associated subsidence is expected to prevent thunderstorm development today despite the rich moisture in place.
145 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Aviation Weak high pressure is situated just upstream of the area over Wisconsin and Minnesota with a weak low positioned over Southeast Lower Michigan. The gradient tonight is very lax and will likely allow areas of fog to form, especially given dew points holding right now in the upper 50s to lower 60s and forecast lows in the lower to middle 50s. Models soundings show little moisture on Sunday which will limit risk of showers as another weak trough axis moves through.
Freezing levels will remain very high (14,000+ feet), promoting a continuation of efficient rainfall rates. Freezing levels will also remain near the 14,000 feet level with PWAT values far above normal to near record high values in the 1.
942 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Western NOAM ridge will slowly shift east and breakdown as the central Canadian upper trough remains in place.
A building area of high pressure over New Mexico, will allow for moisture to be advected northward into Arizona beginning today.
The cold front that will be our main focus for shower and thunderstorm development later today currently stretches from extreme northern Kentucky southwest into northern Arkansas and SE Oklahoma. Given high freezing levels though, not expecting much of a hail threat.
An upper trough will keep around some high clouds and some clouds around 4-6 thousand feet. As the upper trough exits this afternoon, cloud cover will decrease some. The available sunshine will allow temperatures to peak from around 80 into the lower 80s. Our current synoptic pattern is characterized by deep troughing across central Canada into the northern Great Lakes region. Weak Ridging can be found near New Mexico. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement on the ridge amplifying considerably, which in turn tightens the height gradient across the Plains.
Today will be warmer as a ridge begins developing over the Western US.
Temperatures are hovering in the lower to mid 80s at most locations, although clear skies and calm winds have allowed temps to radiate down into the mid/upper 70s at a few sheltered interior locations on the larger islands. Surface analysis has changed little during the past 24 hours, depicting the subtropical high over the central Atlantic and a weak ridge extending westward through the northern Bahamas and the Keys. Aloft, the subtropical ridge extends from the western Atlantic across the Keys and into the central Gulf of Mexico. The ridge has been suppressed slightly southward during the past 24 hours by a weak mid level trough swinging through the Southeastern states.
High pressure will build into the area for the beginning of the week bringing mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures today and tomorrow.
134 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 An upper ridge will slide east through the region today bringing a bit warmer temperatures and mainly dry conditions to most of the area.
451 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 A cold front moves across today, with showers and thunderstorms. High pressure crosses during the first half of the work week amid a warming trend. A cold front will push across the area today. The precipitation will end this afternoon and evening as the cold front moves off to the east.
1213 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Low Level cold advection in the wake of the 825-600mb cold front will continue to support saturation and stratus. Weak low pressure is now located directly over SE Michigan with some gaps in the clouds providing a diurnal heating boost to generate additional convective showers through the afternoon and evening. Instability has remained weak due to surface temperatures only in the lower to mid 70s and weak mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km. The low is slow to depart this evening but coverage and intensity of showers is expected to wane with the loss of daytime heating. This should result in the mainly dry passage of a weak secondary cold front as the corridor of PV advection sweeps through during peak heating.
One more round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected today ahead of a cold front that will usher in a drier airmass early in the work week that will be much less conducive for severe thunderstorms.
1235 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) 500 mb ridging centered over West Texas and North Central Mexico is slowly spreading east (over deep South Texas and the West Gulf), with broad upper troughing over the Southeast United States. Gulf high pressure will support moderate south southeast winds and another day of a mix of low clouds and sun on Sunday.
1157 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 After a few showers south of I-70 early this evening, a cooler and drier airmass will settle into central Illinois tonight. Partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail on Sunday with highs topping out in the lower to middle 80s. Following a cold frontal passage, drier air has been advecting in this evening, with gradually decreasing cloud cover and dewpoints decreasing by 2 to 3 degrees (F) over the last three hours. Erwin 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front settling southward toward the Ohio River. Cooler/drier conditions will filter into the region on light northwesterly winds behind the front. Thanks to ample sunshine heating the dry airmass, highs on Sunday will climb back into the lower to middle 80s.
Max temps will remain warmer than average over the mountains and valleys, while southeast plains stay relatively cool, especially near the KS border where pool of rain cooled air may keep readings in the 70s.
349 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Weak height falls emanating south of broad central canadian troughing easing into southeast Michigan early this morning. This process effectively driving an attendant mid level cold frontal zone east of the region, with an accompanying downturn in overall moisture quality across the 850-300 mb layer. Weak signal of lingering low level convergence combined with the passage of the upper trough axis maintains very low potential for a few spotty showers to emerge throughout the day, with a focus across the thumb. Peak late day temperatures edged on the cooler side of average - in the vicinity of 80 degrees most locations.
233 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Key Messages: - Dry Sunday with slightly cooler than normal temperatures.
121 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Low pressure will track east across the region tonight into Sunday, pushing a cold front across the area.
230 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Majority of the forecast will be a battle between hot high pressure anchored over the the Desert Southwest and a cool trough anchored partially over the Hudson Bay. From the Hot air a ridge rides north through the Intermountain West, the Pacific Northwest, and southern British Columbia.
103 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a trough tracking through our area which is aiding in the increased storm coverage through the remainder of the short-term period. Isolated to scattered activity out there this afternoon should pick up in coverage this evening and then more so Sunday as the trough's associated cold front moves through Middle TN. Storms will come to an end west to east Sunday night with drying and cooling conditions behind the cold front. As such, Sunday's high temperatures will trend down several degrees compared to today with cooler lows expected as well.
We will still be close enough to the top of the ridge for an isolated storm to fire, but this would likely be restricted to northern Wyoming and mainly in and near the mountains. Today will be fairly close to seasonal normals, but it will feel warmer since temperatures have been cool lately.
246 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Current surface observations show the cold front draped over central Kentucky with lingering showers ahead of the front. Southern Kentucky will continue to see scattered showers and storms overnight and through most of the day until the cold front exits the region to the south. The rest of the region will see drier air fill in behind the cold front.
230 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure centered just to the south of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows ridge over the Great Basin region into the Pacific NW, with low pressure over the western Hudson Bay region. A drier pattern can be expected over the next couple of days as western US ridge slowly moves east over the Rockies.
(Today through Monday afternoon) Heat will continue to build across all of W TX and SE NM this afternoon thanks to our mid-level ridge strengthening overhead. Outside temperatures, each afternoon will see convective initiation over the high terrain of NM and Davis Mtns in TX with surrounding locations seeing any storms drifting off the above locations.
The ridge of high pressure continues to build in over the area today. Best chance would be up for any moisture to ride the ridge up to the north into parts of the Central Mountains and Island Park area, but can't totally rule out a stray storm working up the Snake Plain either. Since the ridge is building in, storms will be a bit more limited. As the ridge builds, so does the heat. Afternoon highs today will break into the 90s for much of the lower Snake Plain and Magic Valley.
The weak trough that has been sitting just off shore over the Eastern Pacific the past several days will move through NorCal today and weaken as it lifts northwest into Idaho Monday.
556 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Key Messages: - Dry Sunday with slightly cooler than normal temperatures.
1017 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Issued 1017 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 At mid-morning a cold front was draped across central Kentucky roughly from Carlisle to Campbellsville to Scottsville. Though there will be enough instability and deep layer shear for organized convection, weak DCAPE and lapse rates with seasonably high freezing levels will lead to very low chances of anything severe. Current surface observations show the cold front draped over central Kentucky with lingering showers ahead of the front. Southern Kentucky will continue to see scattered showers and storms overnight and through most of the day until the cold front exits the region to the south. The rest of the region will see drier air fill in behind the cold front. The low temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 50s and low 60s.
643 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 (Today through Monday afternoon) Heat will continue to build across all of W TX and SE NM this afternoon thanks to our mid-level ridge strengthening overhead. Outside temperatures, each afternoon will see convective initiation over the high terrain of NM and Davis Mtns in TX with surrounding locations seeing any storms drifting off the above locations.
Meanwhile, an upper- ridge will gradually amplify across the 4 Corners region. Persistent WAA and deep mixing will yield high temperatures a good ~10 F warmer than yesterday across the area. Another seasonable day is in store for Monday, especially across southern zones where highs may reach the 90s, as a cold front with moderate low-level CAA will be tracking from north to south through the day.
641 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 One more round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected today ahead of a cold front that will usher in a drier airmass early in the work week that will be much less conducive for severe thunderstorms.