Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The excessive heat associated with the pronounced upper level high over the the SWRN states will stay suppressed to the south of the region for the next several days with near normal temperatures expected.
1226 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) The feeble cold front that passed through most of our area this morning had no real impact on temperatures but did drop dewpoints into the 40s on the Caprock. Dewpoints over the southern Rolling Plains early this afternoon are in the low to mid 60s, with a meager CU field expected to develop later this afternoon as boundary layer moisture increases marginally into the evening hours. The only other tangible evidence of todays cold front will be the cooler H85 temps lagging behind for tomorrow, from around 30C today to about 25C tomorrow. As a result, above normal temperatures are still expected tomorrow, but cooler than todays triple digit heat for many, in the mid/upper 90s area wide.
Cooler temperatures are expected north of the boundary with highs ranging from around 90 to upper 90s across most of the area.
The risk for showers and storms will also increase as a cold front approaches and then crosses the region late Thursday. Scattered showers/storms are still expected to impact mainly eastern Ohio during the mid to late afternoon hours, associated with height falls behind the slowly departing ridge. Shower storm chances continue tonight and through Thursday in response to a series of crossing upper level waves and eventually a cold front late on Thursday. Model progs point to the best instability generally to the east of Pittsburgh during that period, and this is where the higher chances of any severe storms lie. Rain coverage will decrease Thursday night as the front departs, but a few showers may linger as a cooler air mass starts to trickle in.
Persistent trough off the West Coast bringing ample onshore flow keeping afternoon temps at or slightly below seasonal normals.
607 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) The subtropical ridge has centered itself across far west TX, northern Mexico, and southern NM and will remain parked there through the short term period with very little change in strength/heights. High temperatures today look to be a couple degrees "cooler" on average compared to yesterday, but it will still be hot enough across the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and Big Bend to warrant another Heat Advisory for this area. Temperatures on Thursday appear to trend slightly warmer, and another Heat Advisory seems plausible for portions of the CWA.
608 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (Today through Thursday night) Model agreement continues to project the rebuilding of the 500mb high pressure center early this morning. Despite the return of the high, temperatures are still recovering from the weak cold frontal boundary that move through yesterday. Expect afternoon high temperatures to still sit in the high 80s to low 90s for the day. Heading into the tomorrow, the high pressure center will continue to build which will keep hot and dry conditions over the Panhandles for yet another day.
High pressure will push temperatures back to several degrees above average, with near record heat expected this weekend. High pressure is centered over northern Chihuahua and southern New Mexico.
The next chance for precipitation comes at the beginning of the work week as a strong autumn-like trough slides down from central Canada and sends a cold front through the mid-Mississippi Valley. 01" of rainfall will occur across the forecast area with the passage of the cold front. What is of greater certainty is that below normal temperatures are expected to continue through the end of the forecast period and even beyond thanks to the reinforcing shot of cold air behind the early week cold front.
714 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 The main focus in the short-term portion of the forecast will be shower and storm chances today with cooler/drier weather expected through the end of the week. As that happens, an associated cold front stretching south through southern Missouri this morning, will shift eastward and out of the CWA by 00Z/07th. After the frontal boundary passes through the area, expect conditions to feel much more comfortable as the dew points drop from 70s to the low 60s! High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s for most locations.
(Rest of Today) A mid/upper trough will swing into the Ohio Valley today, with its associated cold front progressing from the Mid South into the Tennessee Valley by this afternoon. High pressure builds into the area during the day on Thursday and remain over the Tennessee Valley into the upcoming weekend. There highs may only climb into the lower to mid 80s.
The HRRR smoke model clearly shows a large plume of smoke being transported S/E within the low-level ridge. Cooler temperatures are expected north of the boundary with highs ranging from around 90 to upper 90s across most of the area.
624 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (Today through Thursday) No end in sight to the relentless 500 mb ridge of high pressure parked over the BRO CWFA. Precipitation-wise, despite the presence of the aforementioned mid-level ridge, enough moisture may exist to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow, and generally along and east of the Interstate 69C corridor.
609 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Much cooler temperatures today compared to earlier this week as well as more cloud cover and breezy winds. The cold front currently overhead will progress eastward through the morning hours, leaving cool temperatures, breezy winds, and cloudy skies in its wake.
623 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (Wednesday through Thursday) A rather disturbed short-term remains in store for the region, as we come under the influence from the cold front to our north. we will continue to monitor the progress of upper ridging centered across New Mexico, into the Tx Hill Country with the ridge axis continuing to encompass the western third of our region.
(Today through Thursday) Ridging aloft currently over the eastern portion of the CWA will continue to shift offshore this morning. High pressure at the surface will move offshore today while a weak frontal boundary moves into the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
Key Messages: - A bit warmer today and not as windy. Expect quiet and cool weather today with ridging aloft and a cool airmass in place. Short wave energy will be cresting the upper ridge later Thursday afternoon and drive a surface wave eastward near the NE/SD border. The wave will push a warm front into northeast Nebraska late in the day with isentropic lift and some mid level FGEN helping to trigger some showers and thunderstorms.
Key Message: Windy, much cooler and less humid Today, low stratus clouds currently moving SSE across western IA behind the cold front which is near the MS River will overspread the area this morning. Lowered highs a bit into the lower 70s along Highway 20 to the mid and upper 70s elsewhere. Some isolated showers will be possible mainly in east central Iowa and NW IL during the afternoon in the cyclonic flow around the departing low pressure. Lows will slip into the lower and middle 50s west of the MS River with upper 50s to near 60 east.
This will include light overnight easterly winds for the higher terrain west of the Cascades, gusty westerly winds of around 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph this afternoon and Thursday afternoon. The inland push of marine stratus will also be in advance of the trough, which will follow on a track across Washington and northern Oregon on Thursday. A thermal trough will weaken this morning, with the gusty northerly winds and steep seas lowering early this morning.
623 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Key Messages: - Much cooler through the end of the week turning seasonable for the weekend. COOLER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY: At 2 AM this morning, surface observations showed a cold front dissecting the forecast area along the Mississippi River. Temperatures fall below normal behind the cold front today thanks to an influx of northwesterly flow aloft.
1051 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 High pressure will remain over the region for one more day. The next chance of rain comes late this week as a cold front moves into the Southeast and stalls.
Otherwise dry and near normal conditions are expected into the weekend, with temperatures trending a bit warmer during the weekend. A stronger wave and cold front may approach late this coming weekend but at this time looks to wash out before reaching the coast.
Area of weak high pressure is in control across the region with light winds and dry conditions expected. Weak high pressure across the area will lead to light and variable winds across the waters this morning, gradually becoming easterly into the afternoon around 5-10 knots with the developing east coast sea breeze. (12Z TAFS) VFR expected today into tonight, with weak high pressure leading to lighter winds and dry conditions across the area.
Dry quasi-zonal flow aloft will persist along the edge of broad and flat upper-level ridging anchored across the southern CONUS.
435 AM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Water vapor shows rather flat upper ridge over the western CONUS with distinct short wave moving east across western WY. At the surface, ridge covers the western Dakotas with chilly early morning temps down into the 40s, with some 30s in the Black Hills. For Thursday, upper ridge will amplify through the Rockies, with a weak trof crossing the Northern Plains. A narrow corridor of MLCAPE to around 1000J/kg expected to develop near and east of the Black Hills along/ahead of a surface trof. Guidance is trending "wetter" with this trof, although moisture should be mostly lacking and most areas will remain dry. Smoke will likely linger through the morning, but the passage of the surface trof should help to improve air quality somewhat during the afternoon.
733 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (Today through Thursday) Generally dry and quiet weather will prevail for the foreseeable future as high pressure remains in place and dry air overspreads the area. High temperatures will peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon through the short term, but with the lower dew points, heat indices will struggle to break into the triple digits.
high pressure over the Desert Southwest will build northward through tonight. This will allow for temperatures to warm through the 80s and into the 90s across the lower elevations. This will help keep lows across the region warmer, with upper 50s to mid 60s across the Plains, while the San Luis Valley sees lows in the 40s.
Other locations will see mainly sunny skies through the week, while temperatures will warm in all areas into the 70s and 80s by the end of the week due to building high pressure. Today through Thursday night A weak trough of low pressure is forecast along the west coast today with southwesterly flow aloft across most of Nevada. High pressure to the southeast over portions of Arizona and New Mexico with bring drier and more stable condtions across areas mainly south of Interstate 80 for today.
551 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) Today an upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest should drift into the western half of the state. Influence from the aforementioned upper level ridge grows heading into Thursday, with shower/storm activity looking to become more isolated.
Again, the high resolution ensemble gives up to 60 percent probability for thunderstorms over the southern Bitterroot and Sapphire ranges, Anaconda Range, and the Flint Creek Range after 2 pm MDT.
309 AM PDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Dry and warmer weather this week with temperatures near to slightly below normal by mid-week. Upper level high pressure over New Mexico will gradually shift west over Arizona into the weekend, as ridging expands over NorCal with rising heights. Normally this would result in a significant warming trend, however west to southwest flow between the high and eastern Pacific trough will result in periods of onshore flow helping to moderate temperatures.
951 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 An upper level low pressure system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms today into tonight. A cold front will move through the region overnight, ushering in a cooler airmass for the end of the week. Another embedded mid level short wave will dive quickly southeast across the lower Ohio Valley and into the Tennessee Valley through the day on Thursday. A cooler airmass will also settle into the region through the day on Thursday with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 70s in the northwest to the lower 80s in the southeast.
155 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023 A rinse and repeat weather pattern continues across the area through the end of the week, with highs in the 70s and low 80s, with a few afternoon showers each day across the higher terrain. While most of the rain should fall across the higher terrain, a few of the more organized showers may be able to drift onto the plains, where they may have just enough dry air to generate some wind gusts to 35-40 mph.
we will continue to monitor the progress of upper ridging centered across New Mexico, into the Tx Hill Country with the ridge axis continuing to encompass the western third of our region.
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 216 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 After a sustained stretch of hot and rain free weather, conditions will trend cooler over time, with an increased likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. A slow moving cold front will provide the impetus for an initial, fairly widespread round of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon.
Thiem (Today through Thursday)not expected to impact ATL at this time Ridging aloft currently over the eastern portion of the CWA will continue to shift offshore this morning. High pressure at the surface will move offshore today while a weak frontal boundary moves into the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
We will see low to mid 90s tomorrow in the wake of some rain today and cooler soils in S AR. And some morning lows will be near record territory as well with a wide range of 70s tomorrow, but then a little cooler overnight Thursday.
155 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 High pressure slides east of the area this evening. A cold front crosses Thursday with the chance for showers/storms ahead of it. Cooler for the weekend with the chance for diurnal showers/storms. 8 inches, expect showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours along the cold front. Another warm/muggy night is anticipated tonight ahead of the cold front. Fresher airmass filters in behind the cold front providing comfortable temperatures ranging from the lower 80s lowlands, into the upper 60s highest elevations for Thursday afternoon. An open wave of low pressure associated with upper level troughing will position itself south of the area as a cold front exits to the east. As this low moves off toward the south, weak high pressure builds in from the north.
The final trough leaves a slight chance threat of some morning precipitation on Fri morning, but then an upper level ridge starts building in from the south. Only the lowest elevations have a chance to get below 20 percent during the afternoons.
257 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Noticeably cooler air to remain in place starting today. Surface analysis this afternoon shows a north-south oriented area of high pressure arriving from the northwest, which when combined with a more pronounced northerly flow aloft is bringing much cooler air to the Upper Midwest which will remain in place until further notice.
Weak ridging remains centered over the FL peninsula with a light and variable low-level flow and a northerly upper-level flow. As the ridge that has seemingly been parked over the Southwest CONUS all summer builds once again, the pattern in the E CONUS will amplify further in response. While weak low-level riding looks to largely remain for the next several days, an upper-level trough axis looks to dig into Central FL by the end of the week.
There could be some light showers/sprinkles over eastern areas overnight into early Thursday, along surface trof and axis of modest elevated instability (showalter indices near zero), but stronger forcing from the approaching wave will pass to our north.
Today's forecasted high for Downtown Sacramento is 86 degrees which is a whopping 30 degrees cooler than it was at this time last year (116 deg F)! We give our current weather a 10/10. An upper-level trough located just off the Northern California coast will move onshore later today bringing with it continued southwesterly onshore flow and dry weather. To our southeast, a desert southwest high will gradually move westward, sandwiching us between it and a Pacific Northwest trough.
1217 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Updated for 18z TAFs The main focus in the short-term portion of the forecast will be shower and storm chances today with cooler/drier weather expected through the end of the week. As that happens, an associated cold front stretching south through southern Missouri this morning, will shift eastward and out of the CWA by 00Z/07th. After the frontal boundary passes through the area, expect conditions to feel much more comfortable as the dew points drop from 70s to the low 60s! High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s for most locations.
214 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Dry weather and above normal temperatures will continue across the area this forecast period as an upper ridge remains in place.
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 139 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 After a sustained stretch of hot and rain free weather, conditions will trend cooler over time, with an increased likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. A slow moving cold front will provide the impetus for an initial, fairly widespread round of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon.
1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Key Messages: - Much cooler through the end of the week turning seasonable for the weekend. COOLER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY: At 2 AM this morning, surface observations showed a cold front dissecting the forecast area along the Mississippi River. Temperatures fall below normal behind the cold front today thanks to an influx of northwesterly flow aloft.
This is occurring ahead of an approaching cold front associated with the low and suggest some destabilization has occurred this afternoon. A cooler-drier airmass filtering in behind the front will result in quiet weather conditions overnight. Highs will likely only reach the low-mid 70s across most locations. This should leave the Ohio Valley in a cooler region beneath low heights. The centroid of lower heights will shift slightly eastward with time, but high pressure over the lower Canadian Provinces should induce easterly flow keeping the subseasonal temperatures over Indiana.
255 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023 GOES-16 satellite imagery reveals hardly a cloud in the sky across eastern Utah and western Colorado this afternoon with high pressure in control. with the high here in Grand Junction reaching 91F so far (5 degrees above normal).
The upper level pattern will start out with a high pressure dome centered over western Texas and eastern New Mexico and will cover a portion of the CONUS from the southern Plains, into the upper Mississippi Valley, and into the southern PNW.
1246 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (Rest of Today) A mid/upper trough will swing into the Ohio Valley today, with its associated cold front progressing from the Mid South into the Tennessee Valley by this afternoon. High pressure builds into the area during the day on Thursday and remain over the Tennessee Valley into the upcoming weekend. There highs may only climb into the lower to mid 80s.
228 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through tonight and Thursday as a cold front and a low pressure trough approach and cross the region. Even after the severe threat subsides this evening, scattered showers/storms should overspread the region from west to east tonight with vorticity advection ahead of an approaching trough. Cold frontal passage is still slated for the afternoon/evening hours on Thursday, as a mid-level trough settles into the Middle Ohio Valley. Following frontal passage, PoPs will decrease from west to east Thursday evening, and a quiet overnight period is pictured as a cooler/drier air mass starts to sag into the area.
[Key Messages] 1) Overcast skies giving way to increasing sunshine tonight and Thursday 2) Isolated to scattered rain showers this afternoon [Discussion] Plentiful cloud cover was seen across all of eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri early this afternoon, which was associated with a passing mid-level closed low. High pressure will follow with increasing subsidence, allowing for gradual clearing skies from west to east. Portions of eastern Iowa will likely see some of this clearing tonight, which will help temperatures drop into the low 50s. For Thursday, look for increasing sunshine as high pressure builds over the Midwest. Temperatures will be more seasonable with highs in the low to mid 70s.
1241 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (Today through Thursday) No end in sight to the relentless 500 mb ridge of high pressure parked over the BRO CWFA. Precipitation-wise, despite the presence of the aforementioned mid-level ridge, enough moisture may exist to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow, and generally along and east of the Interstate 69C corridor.
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 High pressure will remain over the region for one more day. The next chance of rain comes late this week as a cold front moves into the Southeast and stalls.
234 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 The latest surface analysis is showing that the cold front extended from low pressure over the western Great Lakes southward to just east and southeast of the CWA into central Arkansas with high pressure centered over Nebraska. An extensive area of stratus and stratocumulus that is rotating around the south side of an upper trough currently over Great Lakes is expected to decrease over the area as the trough moves off to the east this evening. Latest runs of the HREF/GFS/NAM does show northwesterly upper flow setting up over the area the next 36 hours as the upper trough moves off to the east, but with the atmosphere remains dry through a deep layer will keep the forecast dry.
1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 A BKN line of clouds have started to develop in the area as the main trough moves east of the area. Cooler air transfers down from Canada helping to build the clouds. Lows will fall into the lower to middle 40s.
Weak high pressure across the area shifts slowly southward, with light winds and dry conditions expected. Skies will be mostly clear and temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s overnight. High pressure across the area continues to weaken and shift gradually southward as a mid-level cut off low dips southward into the southeast United States. Highs will range from the low 90s along the coast to mid 90s over the interior. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
233 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Cooler and dry weather is expected the next several days behind today's cold front.
The larger trough remains to our north and will swing across the OH Valley today. This may provide some weak to moderate large scale ascent this afternoon, enhancing thunderstorm potential this afternoon south of an approaching cold front. This afternoon, warmer temperatures and moisture will result in heat index values reaching or exceeding 105F in counties south and west of Memphis ahead of a cold front. This cold front will bring increased chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly south of I-40.
Upper ridge building in from the east will deliver a few quiet days before moisture returns shower and storm chances for the start of the work week.
344 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 High pressure will persist across the region through tomorrow.