Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper low which has brought forth increased moisture across our area will lift northwest into eastern TX today increasing moisture within the deeper levels of the atmosphere. Instability is on the more non-impressive side so concern for scattered strong storms are minimal but can't rule out a few amongst naturally warmer areas this afternoon. Expect highs to be in the low to upper 80s for areas east of I-55 and the low 90s elsewhere. /JNE/ A weak upper low remains trapped underneath an expansive ridge into midweek as it retrogrades westward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This feature will result in an increase in mostly diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day, bringing primarily beneficial rainfall with a bit cooler weather due to clouds and rain to the area.
(Today and tonight) An upper-level ridge that has been centered over the central Plains will start to erode as an upper low moves into east Texas today. Despite the strong ridge starting to weaken, conditions today will be about the same as yesterday. Otherwise, low temperatures tonight should be in the low 70s, which is similar to this morning.
131 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Dry high pressure will continue to build across the region through the weekend and into the next work week. Expecting a cold front at the end of the week to bring some showers to our area. Otherwise, broad upper ridging will remain over much of the central and eastern CONUS thru the period. At the surface, high pressure will gradually slide SW tonight and tomorrow and will be centered over the Carolinas by the end of the near-term period early Sunday.
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF THROUGH THE HOLIDAY High pressure has wedged down the southeastern coast and tighten the local gradients, resulting in breezy conditions which have persisted overnight along the immediate coast. Breezy conditions with gusts around 15-20 mph inland and 20-25 mph at the coast this afternoon before the high begins to weaken and gradients gradually relax tonight. Cooler than normal temps continue amid the breezy onshore flow with high temps in the mid and upper 80s this afternoon.
1214 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (This evening through Sunday night) 18z WV satellite reveals an upper ridge over the southern Plains, an upper trough over the N CA coast with a broad area of strong south- southwesterlies aloft over the intermountain west, and an upper high over LA. At the surface, weak lee trough has developed in E CO, driving a light south-southwesterly breeze in the Panhandles. Through Sunday night, while the upper ridge will tend to weaken, 700mb temperatures remain warm enough to support highs in the upper 90s and lower triple digits. While some guidance suggests the aforementioned LA upper low will move over N TX late Sunday, available moisture through the column appears too low to support precipitation in our southeast.
Cooler than normal temperatures and dry weather continue through Sunday. Water vapor imagery shows upper level ridging across the center of the country and southeastern states while a cutoff upper low remains anchored over the western Gulf Coast states. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic ridging into the Carolinas. Little overall change in expected sensible weather conditions today with high pressure in place.
325 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure will extend across the mid Atlantic and Carolinas through Sunday, then weaken as a low pressure trough develops over the North Carolina Piedmont. A great start to the weekend as high pressure moves to western NC today and tonight. Expect mostly sunny to sunny skies as the mid/upper low near the Gulf Coast slowly retrogrades.
(Today) Upper low currently centered over LA will continue slowly westward today.
Today will see highs reaching the upper 80s south to the lower 90s northwest today. That coupled wind profile should keep temperatures from falling as far as the past few nights, and we expect lows in the lower to mid 60s.
An upper low will bring cooler temperatures, more cloud cover, and a few light showers to the region this weekend. (Today and tonight) Moisture channel imagery early this morning reveals a low pressure area centered over northwest California with upper ridging downstream over the Great Plains. The upper low will remain our primary weather driver through the short-term with a continuation of increased cloud cover aloft and onshore breezes. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with highs ranging from around 65 of the coast to around 75 for the warmer inland valleys.
Smoke in the upper levels of the atmosphere over our region this morning will persist through early afternoon, then it will move east of our region as the aforementioned upper level trough approaches. Sunday will feature quiet weather as upper level ridge builds over our area. Ridge continues to build into our area this period with some resistance from the upper low associated with Idalia. The Big weather maker for this period is the amplifying upper level heat ridge as it interacts with the closed low Idalia system well offshore but approaching eastern Nova Scotia. All of the CWA will likely be influenced by this building ridge whereas eastern New England may have some influence (not impacts) from Idalia as a sharp temperature gradient is possible.
High pressure over the Appalachians will pump moisture northward into the lower Ohio Valley. A narrow axis of high dew points in the lower to mid 70s will encompass much of our forecast area.
(Today and tonight) Hot and dry weather will continue today across the forecast area as upper level high pressure remains overhead. An upper level low currently located over Louisiana will move west-northwest into North Texas today but will have little influence on our local weather as 500 mb heights remain near 595 dam and very dry air stays overhead. High temperatures will range from the mid-90s on the Caprock to over 100 degrees in the Rolling Plains, about 10 degrees warmer than average.
A cutoff low over Louisiana will begin to shift toward North Texas today, with a trough axis extending toward the Lower Texas coast. There is a low chance (10% or less) for isolated showers/thunderstorms along the sea breeze further inland this afternoon, but overall expect strong subsidence associated with the mid level ridge to dominate. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday as the mid level low drifts over North Texas and ridging aloft prevails.
Otherwise we're looking at dry conditions with the ridge strengthening resulting in hot temperatures for the holiday weekend.
An inverted v sounding has the lower 500 mb of the atmosphere in the dry with enough moisture above to squeak out 0. High temperatures Saturday will trend above average, but cooler thanks to cloud cover and showers. Latest model projections are bringing the base of this trough further north than previous runs indicated. We will still see some scattered convection, but this appears more focused over the high terrain and the fringes of eastern Utah and the northern divide due to the drier air encompassing the region. This trough lifts northeast into the Intermountain West across Idaho and Wyoming, where the best moisture will reside.
950 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2023 19z surface analysis had weak low over central MT with warm front into western NE. Disposition of upper ridge main forecast concern. Saturday/Sunday, high confidence that upper/thermal ridge builds into the CWA bringing 15-25F above normal high temperatures.
Daytime highs today will be limited by both cloud cover aloft and the fact that the thermal ridge axis is still well upstream, but highs will still reach into the low to mid 80s. Warm advection reinvigorates overnight as the nocturnal low level jet kicks in across the Upper Midwest, which helps fold the low level thermal ridge into lower Michigan by Sunday.
Upper ridging continues over the Plains States. There are signs on water vapor of a weak vort coming across the top of the ridge into our southern counties, but not much produced other than some mid level clouds and any radar returns do not seem to be reaching the ground. Southerly areas will see dew points staying in the 60s and even low 70s, but even with the higher humidity we should stay mostly below the 100 heat index criteria. Southwest flow will quickly replace upper ridging with an upper trough sitting in the great basin by the late weekend.
A closed low-pressure system, positioned along the west coast, embarks on an eastward journey, setting up a trough over western Montana and north-central Idaho. This shift not only brings cooler temperatures but also drives the anomalous moisture farther northward, potentially extending showers and thunderstorms all the way into northwest Montana. In the coming work week, we anticipate a cooler weather pattern dominating the region, characterized by a broad trough. Specifically, the Flathead and Mission valleys are at a higher risk of experiencing frost or freezing conditions in the middle to late part of the upcoming week. However, the emergence of high-pressure over the Northern Rockies today is initially hindering the northward penetration of this moisture.
1150 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) An upper level trough/low currently looming overhead is expected to push N/NW this weekend.
339 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure will extend across the mid Atlantic and Carolinas through Sunday, then weaken as a low pressure trough develops over the North Carolina Piedmont. A great start to the weekend as high pressure moves to western NC today and tonight. Expect mostly sunny to sunny skies as the mid/upper low near the Gulf Coast slowly retrogrades.
336 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (Today through Sunday) 500mb analysis shows an upper low across central LA this morning. A sprawling high pressure ridge is centered across northern KS with a ridge extending into the SE Gulf states. The low pressure center is expected to retrograde tonight into Sunday with the ridge building overhead through the remainder of the weekend. Until the upper low retrogrades, it will continue to bring moisture into the mid and upper levels from the GOMEX. As the high retrogrades, the upper/middle moisture will cut off and clouds will lessen. At the surface, high pressure will build down from the NE.
117 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis extending from the Central Plains through the Northern Plains, with upper low along the coast. At the surface, lee trof had advanced into eastern MT/WY/CO. Upper ridge axis will dominate our wx over the weekend with hot and dry conditions expected. Surface trof advancing across the western Dakotas today will also help downslope flow add to the heat.
259 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Upper low will reside off the Northern California coast through tonight leaving a strong SW flow over the inter-mountain region and high pressure over the high plains. Westerly downslope flow today and ridging aloft will tend to suppress convection and low level moisture is limited.
(Today through Sunday) A low pressure system is right now to our west. The spin of the low continues to bring in southerly flow to area, so we will continue to see the banding features through the day. The low will slide to the west a little more during the day, so rain chances will dwindle east to west through the afternoon and then really not much left after sunset. With plenty of clouds and pockets of rain, temperatures will only be in the low to mid 80s. Highs will be a little warmer, especially in the east, where less cloud cover is expected.
The highest coverage of rainfall was in the upper Keys, and peak measured wind gusts were 30-35 knots. Current air temperatures in most Keys island communities are holding in the lower to mid 80s, with dewpoint temperatures ranging from the mid 70s in the upper Keys to the upper 70s or near 80F in the lower Keys. The large-scale pattern features a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the Florida Peninsula, having shifted northwestward during the last 24 hours. This system supports a high pressure cell currently centered over Virginia. The gradient flow between this high pressure cell and a robust post-tropical cyclone (Idalia) centered just southeast of Bermuda is powering fresh to strong northeasterly winds across the South Atlantic Bight and northern Bahamas.
(Today through Sunday) South Florida remains in the warmer, moist airmass ahead of a backdoor cold front associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia. The drier airmass will also help cool things a few degrees though portions of Southwest Florida will still reach the lower to mid 90s.
408 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will continue to influence the local area through mid-week.
(Today through Sunday Night ) A large ridge of high pressure will be anchored over the middle of the country during the near term. At the same time, a weakness in the ridge in the form of a storm system aloft will wobble from Louisiana to Texas today/Sunday.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) The short term forecast is still fairly mundane as upper ridging, increasing thickness, and southerly surface flow in response to lee troughing dominate this weekend, preserving above-normal temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. While we officially entered climatological fall September 1st, the cooler weather we can usually count on this time of year is nowhere to be seen. In regards to precipitation chances, subsidence due to the ridge placement to our NE will continue to keep us dry with any moisture too far east for us to benefit from.
400 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 With high pressure remaining in control, largely dry conditions and a warming trend will persist through the holiday weekend.
The upper level ridge will remain in place over the Central Plains during the short term forecast suppressing any storm activity from forming. Towards the surface, a dome of high pressure will remain in place east of the area with a weak trough across eastern Colorado.
1221 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Dry high pressure will continue to build across the region through the weekend and into the next work week. Expecting a cold front at the end of the week to bring some showers to our area. Otherwise, broad upper ridging will remain over much of the central and eastern CONUS thru the period. At the surface, high pressure will gradually slide SW tonight and tomorrow and will be centered over the Carolinas by the end of the near-term period early Sunday.
330 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Temperatures will continue to heat up with hot conditions developing by Labor Day when highs reach the low to mid 90s.
146 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure at the surface continues over the Southern Appalachians tonight. High clouds that are dense in the south will continue to spread over the area as low pressure lies over Louisiana along a nearly stationary frontal boundary along the Gulf coast. (This evening through Saturday) Discussion: High pressure will be centered over the Appalachians through the period, keeping a dry pattern across the region. Scattered to broken high clouds on the fringes of a low pressure system over LA will be over the southern half of the area overnight, but with little impact to the forecast. Tomorrow will be similar to today, with mostly sunny skies and higher in the lower to mid 80s in most spots.
1224 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Upper-level ridging has settled into West Central Texas and will continue to provide hot, dry, and calm conditions across our area into Saturday.
910 PM PDT Fri Sep 1 2023 An upper-level low will linger near northern California through the weekend with drier and warmer conditions expected for the Inland Northwest the next couple of days.
432 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure is going to keep the area dry over the next several days, while temperatures start to warm once again. Getting some cirrus across southern VA into NC from upper low over Louisiana.
Mid-upper level high centered over FL gradually retrogrades westward into the eastern GOMEX by tonight.
Fall is officially here and not to get everyone to excited but we do have our first cold front to kick off the season. This will be a backdoor cold front that will push through the area from east to west today.
115 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (Tonight) An upper low was now over northern Lousiana, with a vort lobe/convergence zone associated with it lifting north through central AL.
1212 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) A weak upper low pressure system moving north out of the Gulf is spreading showers and thunderstorms as far north as our southern counties. Hourly temperatures are running a bit warmer than the previous forecast suggested, so I increased our highs this afternoon for areas where sunny skies have prevailed this morning. Southerly flow and residual cloud cover will likely keep our temperatures several degrees warmer tonight.
1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 A couple of bands of mid- and high-level clouds will continue to stream southwest into the area on the northern periphery of a weak upper low over Northwest Louisiana. Additionally, relative humidity values will gradually increase with the return southerly flow as dewpoint values are forecast to climb into the low to mid 70s areawide by Saturday night. Overnight low temperatures from the lower 60s across McCurtain county to the lower 70s across north Louisiana and Deep East Texas tonight are forecast to climb in to the mid 70s across much of the region by Saturday night. Otherwise, afternoon highs on Saturday will range from the lower 90s north of I-30 to near 100 degrees across the Lakes Region of Deep East Texas.
Moisture will still be limited but this low could help to weaken the cap, leading to isolated showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze this afternoon. A 700 mb trough axis looks to develop over South Texas this afternoon and overnight.
140 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 A ridge affects our region through the middle of the upcoming week. Simultaneously, the core of this ridge should shift from the northeastern United States to the southern Appalachians. At the surface, the ridge continues influencing our region as the parent high pressure center migrates from the northeastern U. Saturday night will be noticeably warmer and muggier. 850mb temperatures into the lower 20s brings low to mid 90s west, upper 80s to low 90s east.
High pressure in control providing dry weather for the forecast area.
120 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure is going to keep the area dry over the next several days, while temperatures start to warm once again. Getting some cirrus across southern VA into NC from upper low over Louisiana.
125 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (This evening through Sunday) An upper low is located over Louisiana with an upper ridge just to the north in the Plains. The upper low will slowly drift north and west through Sunday. Dew points are in the lower 50s north to the lower 60s south. However, the upper low will bring in additional moisture through Sunday.
603 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper closed low will slide west over the Arklatex region and into eastern TX by this afternoon.
605 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper-level ridge that has been centered over the central Plains will start to erode as an upper low moves into east Texas today. Despite the strong ridge starting to weaken, conditions today will be about the same as yesterday. Otherwise, low temperatures tonight should be in the low 70s, which is similar to this morning.
(Today through Sunday) 500mb analysis shows an upper low across central LA this morning. A sprawling high pressure ridge is centered across northern KS with a ridge extending into the SE Gulf states. The low pressure center is expected to retrograde tonight into Sunday with the ridge building overhead through the remainder of the weekend. Until the upper low retrogrades, it will continue to bring moisture into the mid and upper levels from the GOMEX. As the high retrogrades, the upper/middle moisture will cut off and clouds will lessen. At the surface, high pressure will build down from the NE.
930 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure will extend across the mid Atlantic and Carolinas through Sunday, then weaken as a low pressure trough develops over the North Carolina Piedmont. A great start to the weekend as high pressure moves to western NC today and tonight. Expect mostly sunny to sunny skies as the mid/upper low near the Gulf Coast slowly retrogrades.
Satellite imagery showed convective activity over northern Mexico shut down early yesterday evening and the clouds rapidly evaporating under subsidence as high pressure builds over the region. The southeasterly pressure gradient setup between the cutoff low over Northern California and this high is funneling dry mid-level air in off the pacific into the Desert Southwest sooner than prog'ed my the models, significantly reducing available moisture advecting into the region.
620 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (Today) Upper low currently centered over LA will continue slowly westward today.
645 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure will extend across the mid Atlantic and Carolinas through Sunday, then weaken as a low pressure trough develops over the North Carolina Piedmont. A great start to the weekend as high pressure moves to western NC today and tonight. Expect mostly sunny to sunny skies as the mid/upper low near the Gulf Coast slowly retrogrades.
523 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 The primary focus for today will be the potential for scattered to numerous showers & thunderstorms across much of southeast Wyoming/ western Nebraska as a plume of mid and high level moisture spreads northward along the western and northern periphery of broad upper- level ridging over the central and southern CONUS.
744 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 The warming trend continues today as Upper Michigan remains under the influence of west-southwesterly flow with high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic and a low approaching the Hudson Bay. So far this morning, temperatures are much warmer than the last few nights with current ground based obs reporting widespread 60s and even some 70s along the Keweenaw. And, they are not expected to drop much below the low 60s, either, over the next few hours.
High pressure will then settle across the southeastern United States, resulting in freshened northeast to east breezes.
319 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Clear skies and well above normal temperatures will persist through the weekend -- courtesy of a stagnant upper level ridge over the central United States.
412 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 The primary focus for today will be the potential for scattered to numerous showers & thunderstorms across much of southeast Wyoming/ western Nebraska as a plume of mid and high level moisture spreads northward along the western and northern periphery of broad upper- level ridging over the central and southern CONUS.
429 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 A broad ridge of high pressure extended across much of the country with an upper low along the west coast. The low will be slow to move inland, keeping hot and dry air over the region through the weekend. Sunday a wave in the northern stream begins to phase with the Pacific coast low, pushing the ridge eastward and helping to pull monsoonal moisture northward.
Latest obs show temperatures generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with temperatures in the urban heat centers in the low-to-mid 70s as of 06Z.
708 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will continue to influence the local area through mid-week.
604 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) The short term forecast is still fairly mundane as upper ridging, increasing thickness, and southerly surface flow in response to lee troughing dominate this weekend, preserving above-normal temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. While we officially entered climatological fall September 1st, the cooler weather we can usually count on this time of year is nowhere to be seen. In regards to precipitation chances, subsidence due to the ridge placement to our NE will continue to keep us dry with any moisture too far east for us to benefit from.