Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Less cloud cover and gusty winds should prevail across the area due to subsidence on the west side of a weak low pressure.
805 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 High pressure extending into the area will move off to the east. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday night. Weak low pressure will track northeast along a nearly stationary front southeast of the area. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the northwest and push across the forecast area Tuesday night. Lows will be a bit warmer due to the clouds with readings only falling into the mid to upper 50s.
620 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (Today and tonight) With the upper ridge continuing, at least in the short term to retrograde westward, northerly mid-level flow and north surface winds will aid in keeping temperatures cooler today as well as helping to bring in some drier air. The impact of the lower dewpoints, along with clear skies, will really be felt tonight as it will allow temperatures to fall, in some cases, down into the upper 50s for overnight lows.
930 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (Today and tonight) With the upper ridge continuing, at least in the short term to retrograde westward, northerly mid-level flow and north surface winds will aid in keeping temperatures cooler today as well as helping to bring in some drier air. The impact of the lower dewpoints, along with clear skies, will really be felt tonight as it will allow temperatures to fall, in some cases, down into the upper 50s for overnight lows.
These northerly winds will help support the "cooler" airmass in place, keeping high temperatures seasonably comfortable in the 80s and 90s across the region.
During the day Tuesday, short range ensemble guidance agrees an upper level ridge currently centered over southern CA will begin its much anticipated eastward progression.
(Today and tonight) We get another day with northerly flow in the mid-levels as upper ridge remains well to the west. The lower dewpoints that continue to filter south will again allow cooler overnight temperatures as well with most of the area dropping into the 60s, with a few 50s across the far west and northwest.
1219 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) North to northeasterly 500mb flow will continue across the region as west TX remains on the eastern periphery of a ridge centered across the Desert Southwest. The subsidence attributed to this ridging will limit precipitation chances/coverage to some degree this afternoon and evening, though widely scattered showers and storms are expected to redevelop by around 21z due to a combination of relatively high moisture, lingering boundaries from yesterday's convection, and weak upslope flow in some locations. CAMs depict much of this activity developing to the south of I-20, though the higher terrain of SE NM should see some activity as well. Tuesday will see clearer skies and slightly warmer temperatures with highs generally ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s.
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT: Shower chances will increase later this afternoon as a cold front ahead of an associated upper-level trough will progress through our region late this evening and overnight. However, with some forcing along the boundary and marginal instability to work with, some transient showers could pop up with the highest chances (30-50%) along and north of I-94 with the instability axis dropping off into southeast MN. TOMORROW: With the passage of the weak frontal boundary overnight into the morning, temperatures will trend cooler for the day tomorrow with highs in the 70s for much of the region. LOOKING AHEAD: An upper-level ridge builds in mid-week and beyond bringing another round of hot weather to the Upper-Midwest. An early look at ensemble guidance shows a consistent signal for high temperatures in the low to mid-90s for much of the area this weekend.
207 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 * Potential for scattered showers and storms Tuesday along a cold front, a strong to severe storm can't be ruled out.
450 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 High pressure over the area will move off to the east offering continued dry weather and below normal temperatures today. A cold front will cross the area tonight bringing clouds and reinforcing the cooler air. A mid level trof over south central Canada to drop southeast into the Great Lakes and sharpen up today. A southerly flow will allow a moisture return to our southeast along with an axis of instability as weak low pressure tracks northeast along a nearly stationary front. A surface cold front will push southeast across the forecast area tonight.
115 AM MDT Tue Aug 29 2023 There are very few concerns today as ridging will be in place across the Cowboy State and bring a nice late summer day for the most part with warm temperatures and mainly dry conditions. The only exception, may, and this is a big may, would be a stray shower or thunderstorm across the far northwest as a trough brushes by to the northwest.
Discussion: High pressure stretches from western Ontario southwestward into eastern Illinois. At 2 AM, temperatures were in the lower to mid 60s. A 500 mb trough is forecast to dig southeastward from Minnesota into southern Great Lakes through the day.
However with nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates up to near the freezing level and a well mixed boundary layer a few stronger wind gusts aren't out of the question with the strongest storms. Depending on how early this activity develops (some guidance has it developing as soon as 2-4 pm) which may affect the high temperatures.
232 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Quiet, dry, and cooler weather this week then warming up over the weekend. This is bringing us cooler and drier air over the next few days. We'll be cooler the next couple of days as this trof descends further over the Great Lakes then moves east. Expect breezy conditions tomorrow as we end up wedged between high pressure off to the northwest, and Idalia to the southeast.
Otherwise, daytime temperatures are expected to average a tad above seasonal climo thru the mid-week periods as ridging aloft gradually builds over the central Plains. Subtle low-level cooling will try and advect into far eastern Kansas on the periphery of a cooler surface anticyclone settling south across the western Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi Valley. Darmofal A more intense ridge aloft still looks to grip Kansas and the central Plains by the start of the holiday weekend. While 500mb geopotential heights do not appear as impressive as with the recent heat wave, the low level temperatures/thermal profiles do support high temperatures at or just above 100F again for parts of the area.
215 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 The only chance, albeit small, for measurable precipitation in the next 7 days will be this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Focus remains on approaching northern stream trough and associated currently weak cold front he western UP to central IA which will push SE through the day and strengthen some as nose of 120 kt upper level jet streak edges into NW parts of the area by 00Z Wed. Period will start on the cool side as quickly departing upper level trough axis will already be into western NY/PA at 12Z Wed.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 69 83 65 / 80 50 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 68 83 63 / 80 40 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 79 67 82 63 / 80 40 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 66 79 60 / 80 60 10 10.
255 AM MDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Current surface analysis shows high pressure over much of the high plains, with light winds and mainly clear skies. Upper level analysis shows high amplitude ridge over the intermountain west and the Rockies, with weak northerly flow across the Plains. However, there is a weak circulation within the ridge over western MT, bringing a few showers there overnight.
249 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Key Messages -A few showers may clip the Lake of the Woods region over the next few hours, but they would be done by sunrise -Smoke, both high level and surface based, looks to affect the area for most of the day -A weak cold front will sweep southward this morning, bringing steady north winds by afternoon - which should reduce the smoke A pretty weak surface pattern was entrenched over the Northern Plains early this morning. Otherwise, the main feature today will be a weak cold front, which will sweep southward across the area this morning.
213 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 High pressure extending into the area will move off to the east. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday night. A few high clouds will be possible at times tonight, but still expect mostly clear skies with weak high pressure and a dry airmass in place. Weak low pressure will track northeast along a nearly stationary front southeast of the area. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the northwest and push across the forecast area Tuesday night. Lows will be a bit warmer due to the clouds with readings only falling into the mid to upper 50s.
Tonight, high pressure builds into northeast Kansas with a light northeasterly flow, temperatures will col into the lower 60s.
Driven by the influences of an upper trough over the eastern third of the U. By early this evening, the upper trough pushes far enough east to turn the rain off.
Should see the low to mid 80s across the area today. - Dry weather with gradually warming temperatures through Labor Day Models suggest a period of upper level ridging dominating and re- organizing periodically through Labor Day over the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will remain centered across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday, with West Central Texas on the periphery of the ridge. (Tuesday night through next Monday) An upper-level ridge will begin to slowly shift eastward across the southwestern US this early this week, and settling into West Central Texas by the later part of the week and into part of the weekend.
After that, drier air begins to win out through the afternoon hours as 925-850mb flow takes on a dry advection component in the wake of a passing wave of low pressure. Any shower or brief storm that does impact our southwest CWA could drop some brief heavy rainfall given the high PWAT airmass and slow movement. Highs should range mostly in the low 80s, with a light NE to NW wind helping keep temps down a degree or two. The milder urban areas or mixed ridge tops will likely stay in the mid 60s, while the cooler decoupled valleys (especially east) could fall into the mid 50s.
Highs will be limited to the low to mid 80s thanks to northerly winds and cloud cover today.
1122 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 There is a trough over eastern Canada into the Great Lakes with high pressure over the Mountain West into the southwestern portions of the Plains. An approaching wave associated with the main upper trough is bringing cloud cover to north central Kansas and isolated showers/sprinkles to southern Nebraska. High pressure will shift further east.
342 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 High pressure over northern Ohio this morning weakens as it moves to the east. A cold front moves across the central Great Lakes this afternoon reaching northwest Ohio by evening. The cold front then sweeps eastward into western Pennsylvania during the overnight hours.
High pressure continues to push SE out of Michigan toward the Ohio Valley early this morning. Upstream cold front currently extending from the southern tip of James Bay to the northern tip of Lake Superior and the Arrowhead of Minnesota is making slow SE progress into the Upper Peninsula. Temps are generally holding in the 50s early this morning due to increasing cloud cover and weak WAA ahead of this approaching cold front. Cold front will drop SE thru Upper Michigan thru mid morning and then continue thru Lower Michigan this afternoon and evening.
1231 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 * Potential for scattered showers and storms Tuesday along a cold front, a strong to severe storm can't be ruled out.
1243 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Current 500 mb water vapor and RAP analysis shows a high pressure system sitting over Southern California. The high will remain stagnant through tomorrow as it becomes elongated over the eastern Pacific and Southern California. Another lull in precip tomorrow morning before a potential round of isolated showers and storms returns to portions of the High Plains tomorrow afternoon. If storms develop tomorrow, the high temperature forecast may be tricky.
(Thru Tonight) A northerly flow aloft persists over the Plains east of a ridge over the Southwest.
137 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Aviation Nice night tonight with increasing clouds toward Tuesday morning as a cold front approaches lower Michigan. This cold front will bring with it some shower and isolated thunder chances Tuesday though QPF remains on the low side and severe storm chances remain very low.
Brief cool down today as drier and cooler air moves in from the east. Northeast flow aloft today with an elongated upper high centered over southern California. This will also allow for cooler and drier air to briefly move in place, with lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s today.
This low will move northeast as slight riding builds in for the day bringing warm and dry conditions with breezy southwest winds. The current Pacific trough will then make its way northeast across Montana bringing a cold front through the area tonight.
With little activity on radar at present, and short-range CAM guidance showing little development during the rest of the night, have bumped PoPs down a bit for the Lower Keys into the chance range.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will remain centered across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday, with West Central Texas on the periphery of the ridge.
Morning analysis indicates longwave trough deepening over Canada into the northeast CONUS, while ridging is parked over the Desert Southwest. Highs will be near normal in the low 90s, with any heat indices peaking in the 100-103 range in the Pine Belt.
507 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Key Messages: * Upper level high pressure will build in with above normal temperatures returning to the forecast.
529 AM MDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Brief cool down today as drier and cooler air moves in from the east. Northeast flow aloft today with an elongated upper high centered over southern California. This will also allow for cooler and drier air to briefly move in place, with lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s today. Rain chances diminish further Wednesday into the latter half of the week as the upper high progresses back over the southern Rockies.
745 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Aviation A cold front approaching from the nw will bring increasing cloud cover today with showers and scattered convection.
458 AM MDT Tue Aug 29 2023 A trend towards warmer and drier conditions begins today as a strengthening upper-level ridge builds over the Four Corners region. Increasing 500 mb heights will help advect warmer air into the CWA and subsidence under the ridge will keep precipitation chances minimal. Temperatures today will be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs making it into the upper 70s to upper 80s. As the ridge shifts further eastward, warmer and drier air will be ushered into the CWA. On top of this, a potent upper-level trough passing through Montana will steepen pressure gradients across the area, creating breezy to windy conditions.
626 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 (Thru Tonight) A northerly flow aloft persists over the Plains east of a ridge over the Southwest.
542 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will remain centered across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday, with West Central Texas on the periphery of the ridge.
Look for another day where showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage as the day progresses with the highest chances in the SE half. Rain chances remain for Wed and will be geared SE to NW with the highest pops SE closer to the tropical system.
335 AM MDT Tue Aug 29 2023 A trend towards warmer and drier conditions begins today as a strengthening upper-level ridge builds over the Four Corners region. Increasing 500 mb heights will help advect warmer air into the CWA and subsidence under the ridge will keep precipitation chances minimal. Temperatures today will be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs making it into the upper 70s to upper 80s. As the ridge shifts further eastward, warmer and drier air will be ushered into the CWA. On top of this, a potent upper-level trough passing through Montana will steepen pressure gradients across the area, creating breezy to windy conditions.
Utah and southwest Wyoming will see breezy and unseasonably hot conditions ahead of a dry cold front that will cross northern Utah tonight into Wednesday morning.
On this track, the storm is expected to pass well west of the Lower Keys on its way towards the Big Bend region of Florida. Additionally, it is possible that the Lower Keys may be impacted by a passing rainband as the storm moves northward, resulting in a period of squally weather and tropical storm force winds, mainly over the Lower or Middle Keys if this does indeed occur. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the westernmost Gulf waters (west of the Halfmoon Shoal Light), and the deep Gulf waters northwest of the Lower Keys outside of 5 fathoms. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Straits waters south of the Lower Keys, and the Gulf waters north of the Lower Keys out to 5 fathoms.
the last of the showers and isolated storms associated with the cold front will exit east of the area by around 12z, as the cold front pushes into Lower Michigan. dry conditions are expected as high pressure builds across the western Great Lakes. Some clouds could linger over far northern and eastern WI as the cooler air flows over the warmer waters of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. A chilly night is expected, with the typical low spots of north central WI possibly making a run at the freezing mark (with clear skies and light winds), with patchy frost possible. 925mb temps support highs mainly in the 70s, with slightly cooler readings near Lake Michigan.
317 AM MDT Tue Aug 29 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with hot high pressure situated over the Desert Southwest and a ridge jutting north through western Montana and cresting over northern Alberta. To the northeast an equally large opposing trough lies over the Hudson Bay and Ontario. Northeast Montana lies between these two features with the ridge rapidly gaining full dominance. Today through Tonight: Dry ridge will have the main influence during this time and allow a lee side mountain trough to begin to form to the west. As the ridge axis migrates east the lee trough strength will steadily increase the pressure gradient and wind out ahead of across the western zones late this afternoon into this evening.
Should see the low to mid 80s across the area today. - Dry weather with gradually warming temperatures through Labor Day Models suggest a period of upper level ridging dominating and re- organizing periodically through Labor Day over the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. As we start Wednesday, the upper pattern is expected to show an exiting trough axis east of Indiana, approaching the Appalachians. Meanwhile, strong ridging will be in place aloft stretching from the American southwest across the Central Plains to Central Canada. The result of this at the surface is the development of a very large area of high pressure, stretching from Ontario, across the Great Lakes and Indiana to the southern plains.
* A cold front will swing through the area tonight and will usher in dry conditions for Wednesday along with temps around 80. Weak areas of low pressure riding along the boundary will also provide weak forcing to aid precipitation development. Showers and storms will linger into the evening and early overnight hours before the cold front swings through the area.
434 AM MDT Tue Aug 29 2023 There are very few concerns today as ridging will be in place across the Cowboy State and bring a nice late summer day for the most part with warm temperatures and mainly dry conditions. The only exception, may, and this is a big may, would be a stray shower or thunderstorm across the far northwest as a trough brushes by to the northwest. We will between an upper level low over Montana and a building ridge across the desert southwest. Temperatures will be quite warm, with 90s possible in the warmer locations.
525 AM MDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Current surface analysis shows high pressure over much of the high plains, with light winds and mainly clear skies. Upper level analysis shows high amplitude ridge over the intermountain west and the Rockies, with weak northerly flow across the Plains. However, there is a weak circulation within the ridge over western MT, bringing a few showers there overnight. The front will stall out over the Black Hills area tonight and start to lift northeastward as a warm front by early Wednesday. Weakening ridge aloft will push over the Plains on Wednesday, bringing the warmest temps of the work week, with highs in the 90s across much of the Plains, 80s over the Black Hills.
417 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 A cold front will track southward across central and southeast IL from mid afternoon into mid evening, producing a narrow band of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs today generally in the low to mid 80s, with lows overnight in the upper 50s to around 60 in central IL and lower 60s in southeast IL. High pressure building into Wisconsin on Wednesday will bring northeast breezes into central IL and cooler air.
626 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Quiet, dry, and cooler weather this week then warming up over the weekend. This is bringing us cooler and drier air over the next few days. We'll be cooler the next couple of days as this trof descends further over the Great Lakes then moves east. Expect breezy conditions tomorrow as we end up wedged between high pressure off to the northwest, and Idalia to the southeast.
621 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night ) Predawn sky conditions across AR were mostly clear with temperatures in the lower 60s to mid 70s on light N/NErly winds. Aloft, an upper ridge will be located invof Desert SW with a trough over the OH Valley/New England regions. At the surface, high pressure will slide W to E across the Cntrl Plains into the Mid MS Valley. Highs today and Wednesday will top out in the lower/mid 80s to lower 90s.
High temperatures today should range from the lower 80s in the NW to lower 90s in the SE TX Panhandle.
615 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 The only chance, albeit small, for measurable precipitation in the next 7 days will be this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Focus remains on approaching northern stream trough and associated currently weak cold front he western UP to central IA which will push SE through the day and strengthen some as nose of 120 kt upper level jet streak edges into NW parts of the area by 00Z Wed.
618 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 (Today and tonight) We get another day with northerly flow in the mid-levels as upper ridge remains well to the west. The lower dewpoints that continue to filter south will again allow cooler overnight temperatures as well with most of the area dropping into the 60s, with a few 50s across the far west and northwest.
The upper ridge will be centered over the desert southwest today and there will be northwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area.
Morning analysis indicates longwave trough deepening over Canada into the northeast CONUS, while ridging is parked over the Desert Southwest. Highs will be near normal in the low 90s, with any heat indices peaking in the 100-103 range in the Pine Belt. Lows northwest of the Natchez Trace will be 3-5 degrees below normal in the mid-upper 60s, while near normal to the southeast in the low 70s.
Key Messages: * Upper level high pressure will build in with above normal temperatures returning to the forecast.
652 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 High pressure over northern Ohio this morning weakens as it moves to the east. A cold front moves across the central Great Lakes this afternoon reaching northwest Ohio by evening. The cold front then sweeps eastward into western Pennsylvania during the overnight hours.