Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As seen on water vapor satellite imagery, a very broad and weak mid/upper low is evident over portions of south-central Kansas/north-central Oklahoma early this afternoon. With the area of slightly enhanced moisture overlapped with cooler mid-level temperatures, the atmosphere is uncapped with 1200 to 1700 J/kg MLCAPE across south central Kansas into northern Oklahoma supporting the development of ongoing thunderstorm activity.
Storms will again initiate in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River, but an upper ridge axis currently over West Texas will shift east allowing the storms to propagate further east into the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. In addition to a broader storm threat tomorrow, westerly flow increases from the eastward shift of the upper ridge advecting in warmer temperatures from southern New Mexico and northern Mexico.
Aloft, a similar northwesterly flow pattern is in place with troughing over the Atlantic.
345 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Morning cold front is now well south of the state-line establishing cooler, drier northerly flow over SE MI. Skies clear from north to south over the course of the evening as said front pushes deeper into the Ohio Valley and Canadian high pressure slowly sinks into the Great Lakes. Given dewpoints in the upper 30s/40F, mostly clear skies (aside of elevated Canadian wildfire smoke), and persistent northerly CAA expect a much cooler night ahead as lows drop into the low to mid 40s for most of the region outside of Detroit.
1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 TODAY: Little change is expected for today's forecast as omega blocking persists across the CONUS with anomalously stout upper ridging tilts into the Northern Plains. Despite low coverage due to weak forcing aloft, a higher chance of rain (and a bit greater coverage) resides in southwest Minnesota where a slightly less stable (500-1000 J/kg CAPE) airmass sets up (vs more stable with greater subsidence under the upper ridge axis further west). Perhaps slightly warmer than yesterday, especially in central SD under stronger influence of upper ridging subsidence. Further west, dry conditions prevail under strong ridging aloft. WEDNESDAY: The atmospheric pattern (and suppressive ridging aloft) regresses westward a bit as a jet max digs another wave in to our east and the aforementioned boundary shifts a bit further west.
Tonight and Wednesday A cold front had shifted well south of the forecast early this afternoon, and Hudson Bay high pressure was building into northern WI. Partly sunny skies were observed, along with cooler temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s.
Currently, cumulus development continues across the area, with temperatures quickly warming into the lower 80s. Heights aloft remain well above climo into tomorrow, with the area still under the influence of a large upper ridge. This leads to a persistence forecast with respect to temperatures, with highs a few degrees warmer than this afternoon. As we head into late week, the upper ridge will begin to retrograde westward towards the Intermountain West.
(This evening through Wednesday night) A broad upper level trough will continue over the eastern CONUS through Wednesday with a blocking ridge residing over the central CONUS. Lows Wednesday night a couple degrees warmer with a little more low level moisture, particularly south of I-10.
Will see mid/upper level ridging build in from the southwest tomorrow and this will lead to more subsidence over the area, leading to less precip coverage and warmer temperatures.
1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 (Today through Wednesday night) Upper level trough over the CA coast will continue to linger for the early to mid part of the week. In general this pattern doesn't favor precipitation over the Panhandles, but given the high moisture content at the surface, we can heat up and get popcorn thunderstorms that will not last long, but will also have very little storm motion, so brief periods of moderate to heavy rain. As we move into Wednesday the upper trough over the west will start to take a negative tilt and as a much deeper trough over the northeast CONUS takes a very strong positive tilt.
A few locations may see highs in the low 90s, mainly over the urban areas. While the low-level flow is fairly week, some of the stronger storms may produce locally heavy downpours and gusty winds. A similar pattern is expected tomorrow as the upper ridge to our west slowly transitions eastward.
930 AM PDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A trough along the West Coast will keep a deep marine layer in place this week. Skies over the higher mountains and deserts will be mostly clear.
Meanwhile, amplified upper-level ridging will continue to fold over much of central Canada into Wednesday. Forecast Details: High clouds that have resulted in cooler-than-expected temperatures thus far continue to slide southwest out of the forecast area, allowing for many locations to experience better warming and mixing despite Ontario/Quebec wildfire smoke in place. Overnight temperatures look to drop into the low to mid 40s for most areas with those along the immediate lakeshores staying a few degrees warmer. Persistent upper level pattern continues with troughing to our east and ridging to our west through the end of the work week.
* A cold front will move into the area late Wednesday, bringing a chance for a few thunderstorms along it.
121 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A low pressure system and a cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to eastern New York and western New England today into tonight.
1237 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 (Today and tonight) In general, the low level flow will remain very weak east to southeast today.
On the synoptic scale, we are positioned between troughing in the eastern U. and ridging across the Plains. At the same time, a cold front drops south through the region on Wednesday.
1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 GOES-16 satellite trends indicate an omega blocking pattern centered over the Plains with upper level troughs located along the East and West Coast of the United States. A weak trough axis extends along the northern Gulf Coast.
Despite the smoke/haze and occasional high level clouds streaming in from the north limiting solar insolation, temperatures have rebounded quite a bit from morning lows (50s) with many locations now in the low to mid 80s at this hour (~1830z). A cold front will approach the region late tonight into early tomorrow morning, and ahead of the front we'll see mid/upper level moisture increase. The lower levels will begin to saturate toward dawn as precipitation develops in response to modest isentropic lift, resulting in a broad area of light to moderate showers with perhaps an occasional embedded thunderstorm.
131 PM PDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A couple of low pressure systems will impact Central California today through the weekend, resulting in a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoons and early evenings. Satellite loops show an upper low pressure system spinning over Point Conception today. All the activity is rotating counterclockwise around the upper low center.
Otherwise, expect fair conditions overnight with lows in the lower 60s.
A cold front will help to clear the smoke tomorrow but will also bring some showers and maybe a few afternoon thunderstorms. This is due to a strong and stacked upper low near Nova Scotia. On Wednesday and Wednesday night, conditions will be changing as a cold front slowly approaches and moves through the area.
1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 GOES-16 satellite trends indicate an omega blocking pattern centered over the Plains with upper level troughs located along the East and West Coast of the United States. A weak trough axis extends along the northern Gulf Coast.
Lower- and mid-level geopotential height tendencies are positive, as a ridge in the Mid-Atlantic continues to build westward towards the Florida Peninsula. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the island chain, and boaters should expect less clearance under lower fixed bridges, particularly during times of high tide. From synopsis, a upper-level trough will continue to sit in the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, a mid- to lower- level ridge will nose westward towards the Florida Peninsula.
The high pressure will begin to drift further into the Atlantic as a frontal boundary begins to droop into the SE U. However, with the drier air this weekend, temperatures will increase to the low to mid 90s with heat indices possibly reaching 100 in some areas. The lower RH values of today will increase tomorrow and remain above critical values through the remainder of the week.
1250 PM PDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A trough along the West Coast will keep a deep marine layer in place this week. Skies over the higher mountains and deserts will be mostly clear.
221 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Dry cold front moves southward this morning through northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania today. High pressure returns Tuesday night and will persist through the first half of the weekend. Yet another dry cold front trudges southward this early morning, and will be a slow tracking feature that will take until around 18-20Z to completely clear the CWA. High pressure builds in tonight in a resumption of northerly surface flow across the CWA. Trailing upper trough axis comes through tonight, again, dry, as the cyclonic northerly flow aloft continues. This is mostly a mid/upper level phenomenon, however they daytime mixing of the boundary and the natural decent of the air from the lower levels to the surface with the weak cold front could mix this smoke downward towards the surface.
Low pressure over the southern half of California will keep the unsettled weather rolling through the short term. Expect isolated to scattered coverage today with a bit more coverage on Wednesday as a band of moisture pinwheeling around the low moves overhead on Wednesday.
This area has surface dewpoints still in the low to mid 60s. Overall pattern remains the same with strong upper level low parked over northern New England with another upper level low over southern California. This has kept the Plains in a ridge over the past several days. Building ridge in the Atlantic will retrograde the New England upper level low westward.
Weak northerly flow will linger as high pressure remains anchored north of the region. The perpetuation of a blocked, high amplitude pattern featuring large scale ridging extending from the southern plains to central Manitoba and bookended by lower heights permeating across each coastline will solidify continued dry conditions locally this week. Steady southward expansion of the sprawling central Canadian high pressure system into the region will commence throughout the latter half of the work week, as deep layer stability increases within the broad western expanse of the eastern conus lower height anomaly.
A cold front stretches from near KLSE to KRFD into central Indiana. The cold front is forecast to move southwestward late this afternoon through tonight and to be near the lower to middle Missouri RIver by 12 UTC on Wednesday.
(This evening through Wednesday) A broad area of weak upper troughing remains in place over the central plains states early this afternoon with weak northwest flow aloft analyzed over West Texas downstream of a fairly sharp upper ridge axis centered over New Mexico. Just how far southwest this activity makes it remains uncertain, but continuing elevated instability overnight and a modest enhancement of the low level jet will likely support a decaying cluster of storms over portions of the South Plains and far southern TX Panhandle during the early morning hours on Wednesday. The overall synoptic pattern will not change much on Wednesday aside from a slight eastward shift in the upper ridge axis.
Visible satellite and observations around the region indicate clear skies, light and variable winds, and warm temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Lows will be in the high 50s in the east and low 60s in the west. Wednesday will be warm with highs in the high 80s to around 90. A cloud deck will begin to move in from the northeast midday through the afternoon ahead of a backdoor cold front that will swing through the region during the evening hours. Lows Wednesday night will be in the high 50s to mid 60s.
An upper level low over Nova Scotia is bringing northerly flow aloft and pushing the smoke all way down here. The upper level low over Nova Scotia will retrograde tomorrow pushing a cold front south into TN. Temperatures will be warm once again today with them reaching the upper 80s to around 90 except over the Plateau where they will be a bit cooler.
Skies will clear overnight and lows will fall into the low to mid 60s.
140 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A low pressure system and a cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to eastern New York and western New England today into tonight.
A strong omega block continues to dominate the upper air pattern, with the high pressure in the middle of the block centered over the Dakotas. Various surface features are present across the region, with a cold front extending across central Montana, and a warm front analyzed north-south over Minnesota. Similar conditions are forecast on Wednesday as the upper ridge stays in place, while the frontal boundary in Minnesota is progged to drift west into eastern North Dakota. The general consensus across ensemble members is for the upper ridge portion of the stationary omega block to become stretched and slightly tilted over the western and central Canadian Prairies towards the end of the work week.
Patchy cirrostratus clouds have reduced the depth of dry air mixing today and relative humidity has been on the higher side of forecast.
1120 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Cool, mostly dry, and gusty conditions will persist through this evening as a dry cold front passes through, elevating fire concerns.
High pressure to the east this afternoon is allowing light south to SW winds inland and southeasterly winds behind the Atlantic seabreeze as it moves towards highway 301 and creates a few pop up showers combining with the Gulf coast seabreeze. Highs will be near normal around 90 degrees inland and near to slightly below normal in the mid/upper 80s at the coast, then cooling to near normal overnight in the mid/upper 60s inland and the low 70s at the coast.
1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A mid to upper level ridge will continue to persist over the Plains, causing a high pressure to stay over the Northern Plains over the next couple of days. There is also a trough over both the east and west coasts. The trough over the east coast will deepen and track west over the Great Lakes mid to late week. With a weak low pressure system persisting over northern Oklahoma, the chances for showers and storms look to stick around this afternoon through the evening, especially across south central and southeast Kansas but cannot rule out a storm across central Kansas.
403 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Persistent upper low will linger over New England through the rest of the week.
Rain chances will increase Wednesday evening and overnight as a backdoor cold front advances across the CWA.
(This evening through Wednesday) Water vapor imagery shows the upper level low rotating around the San Joaquin Vally near Fresno. Highs for today and tomorrow will top out around the mid 70s for the interior valleys, the upper 60s to low 70s for the San Francisco Bayshore, and the low to mid 60s along the coast.
Temps are currently in the 70s, but overnight lows will end up in the lower 60s.
956 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A cold front moving through the area will bring a chance for showers tonight. A drier and cooler airmass will settle into the region through mid week. Still expecting additional showers to track across southwestern parts of the forecast area during the overnight becoming a bit more concentrated along and ahead of a cold front dropping across the region. Otherwise, a drier and cooler airmass will advect down into our area behind the front through the day, with mainly clear conditions expected into Wednesday night. In the low level CAA pattern, below normal temperatures are expected. Highs on Wednesday will only be in the low to mid 70s with lows Wednesday night mostly in the 40s.
pper level closed low center along the Southern California coast will move inland tonight and Wednesday. Cloud cover from rotating around the low that had covered much of the area this morning has shifted westward. Onshore flow and cloud cover with the upper low is bringing much cooler temperatures this afternoon. The low is forecast to wobble a little to the north into central California today before edging east a bit on Wednesday.
Models are focusing initiation today over the higher terrain and mountain foothills, as well as southwest WY. Weak steering flow will again be from the SSE to NNW as storms move off the higher terrain and impact the lower elevations.
613 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) A broad area of weak upper troughing remains in place over the central plains states early this afternoon with weak northwest flow aloft analyzed over West Texas downstream of a fairly sharp upper ridge axis centered over New Mexico. Just how far southwest this activity makes it remains uncertain, but continuing elevated instability overnight and a modest enhancement of the low level jet will likely support a decaying cluster of storms over portions of the South Plains and far southern TX Panhandle during the early morning hours on Wednesday. The overall synoptic pattern will not change much on Wednesday aside from a slight eastward shift in the upper ridge axis.
1028 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A low pressure system and a cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to eastern New York and western New England through this evening.
During the short term, the upper low will retrograde slightly into the interior northeast.
Gusty winds along with cooler temperatures are anticipated through the end of the week. the trough centered over southern California will continue to move toward Arizona and slowly fall apart over the weekend. With the progression of this low, we can expect cooler than normal temperatures (5-10 degrees below normal), drier air, and afternoon breezes (15-25 mph) out of the south-southwest with gusts up to 30 mph.
721 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A cold front moving through the area will bring a chance for showers tonight. A drier and cooler airmass will settle into the region through mid week. Still looks like better chance of rainfall will occur later into the night along and ahead of a cold front as it moves into southern Ohio, southeast Indiana, and northern Kentucky. Otherwise, a drier and cooler airmass will advect down into our area behind the front through the day, with mainly clear conditions expected into Wednesday night. In the low level CAA pattern, below normal temperatures are expected. Highs on Wednesday will only be in the low to mid 70s with lows Wednesday night mostly in the 40s.
Dewpoints are expected to drop into the 30s during the afternoon and despite cooler temps generally in the 70s, relative humidity levels are likely to still drop into the 20 to 25 percent range.
A surface Atlantic ridge off to our east is producing light broadly southerly breezes across the Keys this evening. Meanwhile, a broad deep layered trough is aligned over the Gulf of Mexico. This is placing the Keys in a confluent and moistening zone through the lower levels. This evenings sounding indicated there is still substantial dry air above the surface and surface dew points are still in the lower 70s. The trough to our west will continue to increase deep layered moisture and may help to better organize the flow. For this reason, pops will likely fall in the low chance range. A ridge off to our east will maintain light southerly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
- Warmer and drier Wednesday. A weak upper level short wave trough embedded in the northwest flow aloft is currently resulting in an increase in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The higher PoP is located across the Victoria Crossroads area due to deeper moisture and proximity to an upper low centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Mid/upper level ridging is progged for Wednesday bringing drier and warmer conditions to S TX.
1051 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 High pressure continues to sag into northern Michigan from the north this evening through tonight. Meanwhile, amplified upper-level ridging will continue to fold over much of central Canada into Wednesday. Forecast Details: High clouds that have resulted in cooler-than-expected temperatures thus far continue to slide southwest out of the forecast area, allowing for many locations to experience better warming and mixing despite Ontario/Quebec wildfire smoke in place. Overnight temperatures look to drop into the low to mid 40s for most areas with those along the immediate lakeshores staying a few degrees warmer. Persistent upper level pattern continues with troughing to our east and ridging to our west through the end of the work week.
The high pressure will begin to drift further into the Atlantic as a frontal boundary begins to droop into the SE U. However, with the drier air this weekend, temperatures will increase to the low to mid 90s with heat indices possibly reaching 100 in some areas.
854 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 High pressure continues to sag into northern Michigan from the north this evening through tonight. Meanwhile, amplified upper-level ridging will continue to fold over much of central Canada into Wednesday. Forecast Details: High clouds that have resulted in cooler-than-expected temperatures thus far continue to slide southwest out of the forecast area, allowing for many locations to experience better warming and mixing despite Ontario/Quebec wildfire smoke in place. Overnight temperatures look to drop into the low to mid 40s for most areas with those along the immediate lakeshores staying a few degrees warmer. Persistent upper level pattern continues with troughing to our east and ridging to our west through the end of the work week.
749 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A low pressure system and a cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to eastern New York and western New England through this evening.
The large scale upper level pattern has a highly amplified ridge of high pressure across the central United States extending well northward into central Canada, with an upper low over south central California. This upper low will remain nearly stationary into Wednesday and will be the main driver of our weather in the short term. Moisture on the eastern edge of the upper low circulation along the Arizona/New Mexico border and in New Mexico will result in a slight chance/chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. In addition, due to the proximity of the upper low pressure gradients have tightened across southeast Arizona, with breezy to locally windy conditions into the early evening hours tonight.
335 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A persistent upper level low pressure system will keep cooler and showery conditions in place through the end of the work week. An unseasonably cool and rather dreary day is in store for our region as we remain under the influence of a vertically stacked closed low pressure system. The consensus of the CAM guidance shows the upper low retrograding slightly further west and becoming centered over northern VT today. Given the axis of the upper low, have likely PoPs across northern NY/VT and 35-50 percent PoPs elsewhere. Heading into Thursday, we remain under the influence of the upper level low pressure system but 925mb and 850mb temperatures are slightly warmer. So expect daytime highs to be 2-3F warmer than on Wednesday with winds out of the north rather than northwest.
1246 AM PDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A pair of low pressure systems will bring unseasonably cool temperatures alongside afternoon and night rain showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.