Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level ridging along the east coast continues to influence the eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians weather today with sunny skies early today eastern areas. An upper level trough over the Mississippi Valley was moving into middle Tennessee late this morning. Have not changed highs for today which will be above normal but a few degrees cooler than yesterday across much of the area.
1105 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Narrow but high-amplitude upper ridge is in place along the eastern seaboard this morning. No changes needed with the morning update as temperatures are on track to reach the lower to mid 90s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. (Today and tonight) Quiet conditions will prevail through the near term as an upper level ridge overhead slowly breaks down. High temperatures will be in the low 90s.
The Midsouth's recent period of high humidity will end, following the passage of a cold front through the Midsouth on Wednesday.
207 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) 500mb heights will be increasing through the short term period as troughing across the Northern Plains and the lower/mid Mississippi River Valley pushes off to the north/east. Otherwise, the main story of the short term will be the heat as ridging rebuilds aloft. Despite ridging continuing to strengthen on Wednesday, current guidance drops temperatures a couple degrees on average across the CWA.
Northwesterly gusts continue to peak in the 25-35 mph range, as temps currently range into the 70s west through the lower and mid 80s along/east of Highway 25. Current guidance is showing upper level ridge meandering over the southern Plains/Rockies during the next 3 days. Guidance does suggest the heaviest smoke particle concentration will occur over E/NE zones, as the ridge axis/lightest winds are expected in that area.
Despite some decently thick upper level clouds penetrating through the dry air and ridging, temperatures have still be able to climb into the upper 80s and near 90 in some spots. These clouds should clear out of the region through this evening, and allow temps to drop below normal once again in the subsident ridging.
239 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Key Messages: - Very cool tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s.
(This evening through Wednesday) The feeble cold front that passed through most of our area this morning had no real impact on temperatures but did drop dewpoints into the 40s on the Caprock. Dewpoints over the southern Rolling Plains early this afternoon are in the low to mid 60s, with a meager CU field expected to develop later this afternoon as boundary layer moisture increases marginally into the evening hours. The only other tangible evidence of todays cold front will be the cooler H85 temps lagging behind for tomorrow, from around 30C today to about 25C tomorrow. As a result, above normal temperatures are still expected tomorrow, but cooler than todays triple digit heat for many, in the mid/upper 90s area wide.
(This evening through Wednesday) The current longwave pattern can be described as a broad upper level trough over the Epac/West Coast and high pressure over W Texas/S New Mexico.
We still have a high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft over the state but it is loosing its grip on the Southeastern U. This ridge is expected to move slowly south and east over the next 24 hours allowing a weak wave/frontal boundary move into NW GA Wed evening.
There have been a few showers noted across southwestern WI this morning, but the majority of southern WI is still expected to remain dry until the low and cold front move into WI this evening and overnight. The cloud cover will help temperatures be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Tonight the main upper level trough will move into the area with positive vorticity advection, 850 to 700 mb warm air advection, and the low level jet. The upper level trough will linger over the area with the surface front moving through later on Wednesday.
1125 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Upper level ridging along the east coast continues to influence the eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians weather today with sunny skies early today eastern areas. An upper level trough over the Mississippi Valley was moving into middle Tennessee late this morning. Have not changed highs for today which will be above normal but a few degrees cooler than yesterday across much of the area.
1215 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Aviation Section Updated Weak ridging builds over the Treasure State as the Pacific low exits eastward. Warmer and drier conditions develop today, lasting through the rest of the week. Weak ridging propagates over the Treasure State in its wake, resulting in things settling down quite significantly for the remainder of the week.
Showers and thunderstorms continue across central MN ahead of the cold front, with weaker showers further west over the Devils Lake Basin with the main trough. Clouds and showers have kept instability even ahead of the cold front in Wadena and Hubbard counties on the lower side. As stronger convection moves into central and northeastern MN, showers will linger across far eastern ND and western MN as the main trough moves through. Could see some temps dip into the low to mid 40s, quite a change from the 90s a few days ago.
214 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Another hot and humid day is expected Wednesday as high pressure departs.
Winds this afternoon and evening could gust to around 40 mph as the cold front moves through. As the cold front moves through tonight into tomorrow areas of surface smoke will be likely, possibly reducing visibilities to 3 miles or so at times.
Overnight, further decreasing winds and fully clear skies will support strong radiational cooling, and a chilly early-fall morning is on tap for our area with lows in the low 50s northwest to upper 50s southeast.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Hot and humid conditions persist - Isolated to scattered showers/storms possible Wednesday across portions of the Coastal Plains Mid to upper level high pressure system will continue to build aloft through the short-term period. A weak passing disturbance on the eastern periphery of the high will combine with slightly deeper moisture coming in from the Gulf to spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday across portions of the Coastal Plains. Highs tomorrow will range from the low 90s along the coast to near 105 across the west.
1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 (Today and tonight) Low level jet bringing better low level moisture back to West Central Texas early this morning with dewpoint at Junction climbing into the lower 70s. Speaking of temperatures, with the upper ridge building a little more into place, temperatures look to climb another degree or two.
A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will develop through the day on Wednesday as an upper level low pressure system moves through the region. Meanwhile, a broader mid level trough will move across the Great Lakes later tonight and into the day on Wednesday.
200 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Key Points: - Frontal boundary moving through the area this afternoon is ushering in cooler and drier air for the week.
Although the magnitude of the SSW flow isn't particularly noteworthy (with speeds ranging from 15-20 knots in the low-levels to 15-25 knots aloft), lift within the resultant warm advection regime has been sufficient (given PWAT values in the 1.
Dry conditions with below-average temperatures and breezy south winds expected today, as an area of high pressure builds overhead. Breezy conditions will return tomorrow afternoon, with temperatures a few degrees warmer. The general outlook for the next couple of days is for dry conditions across the region with slightly warmer temperatures and afternoon breezes. Synoptically, the weather pattern has broad troughing off the west coast and high pressure centered over Chihuahua, Mexico. Today, we are expecting generally quiet weather conditions with temperatures around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, but still below normal.
While severe hail cannot be ruled out, high freezing levels (~15,000 ft) and the deep layer of very warm temperatures should cause significant melting before hail reaches the surface. On the synoptic scale, the H500 upper trough centered over South Dakota continues to push a cold front into the area with the front expected to move slowly and exit our FA tomorrow morning. As the upper trough progresses towards the Great Lakes region, a mid- level jet streak from the north strengthens over east-central KS late tonight.
Morning upper air/RAP analysis indicates trough axis moving into the area. This is evident in GOES-East water vapor imagery, where the trough axis extends down through the Mid South to Mississippi River corridor to the Gulf Coast. Somewhat seasonable highs in the low-mid 90s are expected, with some heat possible across the western half of the area.
Beyond that, cooler and much less humid air gives us an early taste of Fall! A mid level disturbance is slowly spinning across the area, leading to isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
As the trough axis swings to the east, expect more subsidence to drive in the wake & rain & storms should wind down by early evening. Lows will fall near normal in the low 70s, while patchy fog is again possible in the Pine Belt.
130 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Morning upper air/RAP analysis indicates trough axis moving into the area. This is evident in GOES-East water vapor imagery, where the trough axis extends down through the Mid South to Mississippi River corridor to the Gulf Coast. Somewhat seasonable highs in the low-mid 90s are expected, with some heat possible across the western half of the area.
249 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 High pressure will remain over the region through the middle of the week. The next chance of rain comes late this week as a cold front moves into the Southeast and stalls.
124 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Narrow but high-amplitude upper ridge is in place along the eastern seaboard this morning. No changes needed with the morning update as temperatures are on track to reach the lower to mid 90s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. (Today and tonight) Quiet conditions will prevail through the near term as an upper level ridge overhead slowly breaks down. High temperatures will be in the low 90s.
More locally, we're seeing mostly zonal (west to east) flow, which is resulting in temperatures just a touch cooler than average and dry weather through the entire region. A thermal trough will persist along the coast through Today, bringing gusty northerly winds and steep, hazardous seas to areas south of Port Orford.
245 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Water vapor imagery shows very dry air behind a departing trough over Nebraska. This trough is moisture-starved and will not bring any precipitation to our area. The axis of a ridge will move over Colorado during the day on Wednesday. The warmer air aloft along with plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to warm above normal. Relative humidity will drop to the low teens with gusts around 25 mph.
234 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 High pressure aloft over the region today will shift east through the remainder of the week as low pressure aloft becomes established over the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region.
935 AM MDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Weak ridging builds over the Treasure State as the Pacific low exits eastward. Warmer and drier conditions develop today, lasting through the rest of the week. Weak ridging propagates over the Treasure State in its wake, resulting in things settling down quite significantly for the remainder of the week.
While one or two gusts of around 45 mph cannot be ruled out across Tripp County over the next hour or so as the surface trof departs to our east, winds should generally continue to decrease.
(Today and tonight) Low level jet bringing better low level moisture back to West Central Texas early this morning with dewpoint at Junction climbing into the lower 70s. Speaking of temperatures, with the upper ridge building a little more into place, temperatures look to climb another degree or two. Potential record breaking heat into the weekend before a cold front Tuesday. Rain chances start to increase this weekend, The high pressure aloft will continue to build over our area, with the center just to our northwest.
The marine layer is expected to continue to get shallower into the end of the week as a mid-level high pressure system extends west over Southern California. This will result in patchier cloud coverage that is more confined to the coast and warmer conditions.
1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 (Today through Wednesday night) The expected weak cold front is still on track to move in through the early morning hours of today as models project the upper-level trough to continue progressing east into the Great Plains. Current guidance expect temperatures to stick to the high 80s to mid 90s. Heading into the overnight and Wednesday, model agreement is still expecting high pressure to begin building back in with the 500mb center over Western Texas and Southeastern New Mexico. With the high pressure building back in, hot and dry conditions are expected to continue with afternoon temperatures returning low to mid 90s for tomorrow.
The low level thermal ridge supplying 31-33C temperatures today slides westward a bit for tomorrow. High temperatures on Wednesday should still reach the triple digits for most but will be a degree or so cooler than today. As this trough/dryline continues to push eastward into this afternoon, isolated high based storms look to develop across the far eastern Permian Basin as well as the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains. On the heels of the upper trough lifting through the Midwest and Great Lakes, a weak cold front is pushing through the Texas Panhandle this afternoon.
The next weak cold front arrives Wednesday with only a few hundredths of an inch of precipitation expected. Onshore flow will continue for cooler than average conditions. High pressure then begins to build back over the region later in the week, bringing a gradual warming and drying trend that will continue until the next front approaches by the end of the weekend.
This is due to an upper level low pressure system that is moving through western Nevada at this time.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Models continue to depict broad high pressure over the western Atlantic and most of the SE CONUS persisting through the next several days.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Clear skies and north winds behind a cold front that passed through this morning has provided a slight cool down for the Panhandles today. High pressure aloft has been suppressed to our south, centered near the Rio Grande Valley, with a series of troughs traversing across central and northern CONUS. These troughs will deamplify as they move east, allowing the high to gradually build back towards the plains through Wednesday.
Weak area of high pressure will remain in place across the area through tomorrow, with low level easterly winds continuing to weaken and becoming light and variable. Otherwise, dry conditions expected to continue with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s and highs Wednesday warming to the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and into the low to mid 90s across the interior.
Potential record breaking heat into the weekend before a cold front Tuesday. Rain chances start to increase this weekend, The high pressure aloft will continue to build over our area, with the center just to our northwest.
223 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Regional high pressure has taken control of the weather pattern, affording little in the way of progressive, smoke clearing opportunities. On the larger scale of things, the cool westerly flow today will give way to warmer southwesterly flow by tomorrow (Wednesday).
Meanwhile, high pressure will push temperatures back to several degrees above average by mid week, with near record heat expected this weekend. We'll see a modest and gradual moisture return over the next several days, but the main story will be high pressure pushing temperatures back to well above average, with record heat expected over the weekend. Dry conditions will prevail through the weekend with min RH values from today onward of 10-18 percent in the lower elevations and 16-26 percent in the higher elevations. Ridging currently centered over Chihuahua will begin to move northward after today setting up over New Mexico and later this weekend over Arizona.
Satellite imagery shows upper ridge building over the region bringing us dry conditions. Tomorrow will be warmer as ridge axis shift east and SW flow develops. Look for highs into the low-mid 80s most places, with much clearer skies and modest SW-W winds.
(Now through Wednesday) Upper level ridging over the area will begin to weaken through the near term as a short wave moves across the Ohio Valley. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 90s inland to upper 80s and low 90s near the coast.
118 PM PDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Warmer and drier weather this week with temperatures near to slightly below normal by mid-week. Current temperatures are trending approximately 3 to 6 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, valid at 1 PM PDT. Even with the warmer temperatures, HeatRisk is expected to remain mainly in the minor category as temperatures will still be running near to slightly below normal for early September climatology.
------BMickelson MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure is bottled up over the Desert Southwest with a ridge rising north into the Intermountain West. Along the International Border a series of sub synoptic trough ridge couplets lie with the first trough over the Great Plains, the first ridge over western Montana, and the second trough entering the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The second ridge is hanging back over the Gulf of Alaska. Today through Wednesday: area will remain under zonal flow with weak ridging.
616 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) The feeble cold front that passed through most of our area this morning had no real impact on temperatures but did drop dewpoints into the 40s on the Caprock. Dewpoints over the southern Rolling Plains early this afternoon are in the low to mid 60s, with a meager CU field expected to develop later this afternoon as boundary layer moisture increases marginally into the evening hours. The only other tangible evidence of todays cold front will be the cooler H85 temps lagging behind for tomorrow, from around 30C today to about 25C tomorrow. As a result, above normal temperatures are still expected tomorrow, but cooler than todays triple digit heat for many, in the mid/upper 90s area wide.
Weak area of high pressure will remain in place across the area through tomorrow, with low level easterly winds continuing to weaken and becoming light and variable. Dry conditions expected to continue with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s and highs Wednesday warming to the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and into the low to mid 90s across the interior.
Lows will range from the upper 60s in the higher terrain east to readings in the low 70s far west.
Fair weather cumulus has popped up over much of the higher terrain of northern CA and eastwards of the Cascades. An approaching trough will lead to breezy afternoon winds tomorrow, especially over higher terrain, as the trough causes the pressure gradient to tighten; generally out of the northwest in areas west of the Cascades and more westerly to slightly southwesterly eastwards. This approaching trough will also push marine stratus inland into its characteristic areas - through much of Coos County, into western Douglas County and the Umpqua Basin, and in the Brookings area and southwards.
620 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 The Midsouth's recent period of high humidity will end, following the passage of a cold front through the Midsouth on Wednesday.
Currently - A weakening pressure ridge arcs from the far southeastern United States east southeastward out into the Atlantic. Short Term Update - The marginal ridge will remain draped from the far southeastern United States and the adjacent Atlantic. Expect overnight lows to settle in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. A weakening ridge not far to our north will maintain light to gentle mostly easterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
440 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 2023 High pressure has become well established over northern Mexico and southern New Mexico, which leaves us in southwest flow. The cooler air mass brought in by the last system has given us a taste of fall. Due to the high pressure temperatures will climb a few degrees tomorrow. Deep southwest flow will persist across eastern Utah and western Colorado through the end of the work week as high pressure remains parked over southern New Mexico and western Texas. Combined with troughing over the Pacific Northwest, the mid-level height gradient will remain tightened overhead.
Key Points: - Frontal boundary moving through the area this afternoon is ushering in cooler and drier air for the week.
449 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 1) Cold front moving through the area today and tonight, with accompanying showers and thunderstorms. 2) Cooler weather expected for the rest of the work week.
518 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Water vapor imagery shows very dry air behind a departing trough over Nebraska. This trough is moisture-starved and will not bring any precipitation to our area. The axis of a ridge will move over Colorado during the day on Wednesday. The warmer air aloft along with plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to warm above normal. Relative humidity will drop to the low teens with gusts around 25 mph.
856 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 High pressure brings dry weather with hot afternoons into Wednesday.
621 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) Clear skies and north winds behind a cold front that passed through this morning has provided a slight cool down for the Panhandles today. High pressure aloft has been suppressed to our south, centered near the Rio Grande Valley, with a series of troughs traversing across central and northern CONUS. These troughs will deamplify as they move east, allowing the high to gradually build back towards the plains through Wednesday.
749 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 High pressure will remain over the region for one more day. The next chance of rain comes late this week as a cold front moves into the Southeast and stalls.
A mid-level trough will continue shifting east over the area tonight, and additional showers and storms may develop as low level shear begins to increase during the morning hours ahead of a potential decaying MCS through the Ozarks/mid MS River Valley.
923 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Another hot and humid day is expected Wednesday as high pressure departs.
The main trough axis is currently located over Middle Tennessee. The latest water vapor imagery shows robust convection forming just ahead of a surface cold front moving through the Central Plains. AC3 The Midsouth's recent period of high humidity will end, following the passage of a cold front through the Midsouth on Wednesday.
High pressure will push temperatures back to several degrees above average by mid week, with near record heat expected this weekend. Limited moisture will begin to creep back northward as the high center shifts from northern Mexico into the desert southwest over the next 48 hours.
At 2 PM CDT, skies are cloudy or on their way to becoming cloudy, due to a low pressure system churning over the Dakotas. Scattered to numerous showers w/ some embedded occasional thunder have been hanging out over portions of central and north central South Dakota for several hours within the deformation zone/TROWAl-forcing region of this low pressure system. Thee strong northerly winds happening now are bringing much cooler air into the area.
706 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 (Rest of today through Wednesday) Models continue to depict broad high pressure over the western Atlantic and most of the SE CONUS persisting through the next several days.