Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough digging into the Ohio Valley, with northwesterly flow over the CWA. At the surface, observations show a low spinning over the Great Lakes with an elongated area of high pressure extending southward along the Missouri Valley. This pattern has supported continued advection of cooler air into the CWA, with temperatures currently running 5-10 degrees cooler than at this point yesterday morning. Tomorrow, the upper-level trough will gradually shift eastward as a ridge begins to build into the region.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) As the mid-level ridge shifts over us tomorrow, expect dewpoints to be marginally lower tomorrow, mainly west.
525 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Current upper air analysis shows upper low situated over the Great Lakes region, with upper ridging over the northern and central plains, another upper trough over the PAC NW. At the surface, high pressure sits over the eastern SD/NE border. Upper ridge slides east of the region today, with southwest flow aloft developing. 0-6km bulk shear ranges 30-55kts, with the higher shear values in far southern SD and the Black Hills. Towards mid-week, ridge over the northern and central plains flattens out as upper trough deepens over the far western CONUS and eventually slides over the Rockies toward the weekend.
635 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) The upper ridge has shifted a bit east today and it is currently centered across south-central TX. At 1:30 pm, temperatures across the forecast area are actually running a bit cooler than yesterday at this time, mainly due to the higher moisture. Water vapor imagery shows some modest mid-level moisture and lift rotating around the ridge across southern NM. This wave should be able to gin up some t-storm activity across the higher terrain of NM this afternoon, spreading into NE NM. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will be gradually strengthening as a deep trough moves into the Great Basin and the ridge is nudged into east Texas.
547 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 As the stacked system over the Great Lakes region slowly moves off to the east over the next 24 to 36 hours, the upper level ridge over the Central Plains will slide east into the region. For tonight, the diurnal cu will diminish by sunset with dry and slightly cooler weather as temperatures drop into the upper 50s to upper 60s. On Tuesday, as the upper level ridge builds into the region, 850mb temperatures will begin to rise from the southwest, so expect a 2 to 4 degree rise in highs.
Temperatures throughout the Florida Keys are in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Deep mean layer ridging remains across northern Mexico and the southern Plains with mid to upper level troughing continuing over the Florida Peninsula.
600 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Current satellite imagery shows cumulus slowly building across the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau while surface observations depict a weak lingering boundary draped across the I-20 corridor. If you're looking for some good news about the heat, you'll actually find some here! It's not really a heat wave busting cooldown but we'll see a gradual cooling trend through tomorrow as the center of the upper ridge jogs eastward towards east-central Texas. " Though it may "feel" cooler than it really is, sweat can evaporate away the second it wicks onto the skin, leading to rapid dehydration and heat exhaustion.
A strong and hot upper ridge over the Southern Plains will pretty much remain in place for the next few days. That ridge extends north into the forecast area. Energy riding through the ridge will provide for rain chances both tnt and Tuesday night over the Dakotas. Increasing deep layer shear could lead to a few severe storms for southwest SD, but moisture/instability will be somewhat lacking, and suspect most severe storms will struggle to get east of the High Plains region. Tuesday night may bring more widespread activity as a healthier looking wave tops the ridge.
Otherwise, temperatures along the coast will remain slightly below normal, while across the interior, much warmer weather is expected during mid to late week. Steep lapse rates and a moist boundary layer airmass present in the wake of the trough were supporting isolated thunderstorm development across the interior mountains of NWRN CA. Thereafter, upper heights are forecast to build over the NERN PAC and adjacent WRN CONUS during mid to late week, which will give rise to the development of an upper-level ridge.
Weather continues to remain active and cooler through midweek, but we trend warmer and drier toward the end of the week.
Expect a ridge to the southwest to build into the region.
931 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm are expected to continue through Tuesday night as low pressure remains across the Great Lakes region.
Another round is forecast for Tuesday as a weak upper low remains over our forecast area. Then, showers and thunderstorms will expand across E Oregon and the higher terrain of SW Idaho Tuesday afternoon.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Dry conditions on the horizon for the majority of north and central Georgia as a low pressure system over the Great Lakes region pushes a dry surface front across the area through tonight. Dry conditions expected throughout the CWA by Tuesday afternoon as the surface cold front pushes out of the area , leaving behind mostly sunny conditions and dry conditions. Temperatures will increase tomorrow, with majority of the CWA reaching into the low to mid 90s.
A broad upper level trough will remain the weather influencer through then, bringing daily chances of afternoon/evening thunderstorms with seasonal temperatures and breezy afternoons.
620 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 A strong and hot upper ridge over the Southern Plains will pretty much remain in place for the next few days. That ridge extends north into the forecast area. Energy riding through the ridge will provide for rain chances both tnt and Tuesday night over the Dakotas. Increasing deep layer shear could lead to a few severe storms for southwest SD, but moisture/instability will be somewhat lacking, and suspect most severe storms will struggle to get east of the High Plains region. Tuesday night may bring more widespread activity as a healthier looking wave tops the ridge.
(Tonight) Stuck between the upper low over the Great Lakes and the ridge across centered in the Southern Plains, we had breezy northwesterly winds today with gusts that will slack with sunset. Combined with the lower dewpoints, seeing a high once again in the lower 90s didn't feel nearly as bad as yesterday. Winds will become light after midnight, otherwise skies will be mostly clear with lows reaching the low/mid 60s.
607 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Much more tolerable weather is expected through Tuesday as dewpoints remain low with temperatures in the low 90s.
751 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 A slow moving low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes will lead to numerous showers and a chance for thunderstorms today through Tuesday before dry conditions return by midweek.
1032 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 A slow moving low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes will lead to numerous showers and a chance for thunderstorms today through Tuesday before dry conditions return by midweek.
623 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) A cold front that is providing temporary relief from heat and high humidity (most areas), has become nearly stationary across far southeast Oklahoma and northern Texas.
639 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Summary: The low pressure system that brought widespread rain throughout the weekend has moved off to MI with wrap around moisture dissipating across NW WI this afternoon.
349 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Persistent southwest flow continues this afternoon ahead of a Pacific Northwest trough of low pressure. Pressure gradients will tighten on Tuesday between the stubborn ridge of high pressure over the Great Plains and the developing low over the Pacific Northwest. Winds will gust to around 40 mph in the valleys with stronger winds across the higher terrain. Tuesday morning low temperatures will remain cool, thanks to the low dew points across the region. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will once again reach the 80-90's in the low valleys.
Expect this trend of dry weather to continue overnight as the high pressure regime continues. Forecast sndgs tomorrow afternoon reflect a stout mixed layer over the CWA which could assist in transporting down Td's in the low to mid 70s.
1242 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Summary: The low pressure system that brought widespread rain throughout the weekend has moved off to MI with wrap around moisture dissipating across NW WI this afternoon.
348 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Weak mid-level disturbance rounding the upper ridge early this morning is bringing an area of showers and thunderstorms across western and southern portions of the CWA.
1020 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Current upper air analysis shows upper low situated over the Great Lakes region, with upper ridging over the northern and central plains, another upper trough over the PAC NW. At the surface, high pressure sits over the eastern SD/NE border. Upper ridge slides east of the region today, with southwest flow aloft developing. 0-6km bulk shear ranges 30-55kts, with the higher shear values in far southern SD and the Black Hills. Towards mid-week, ridge over the northern and central plains flattens out as upper trough deepens over the far western CONUS and eventually slides over the Rockies toward the weekend.
This starts to change on Wed as the closed low opens into a wave and digs to the south, elongating the low and pushing the unstable air with moisture farther to the east. By Thu, thunderstorms and showers are mainly limited to the ID-WY border area as high pressure moves in from the west, clearing skies and stabilizing the atmosphere.
330 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 A cold front will move through the area by tonight. High pressure then builds in behind it through mid to late week. A cold front will move into eastern NC by evening and will combine with plenty of instability (MLCAPES above 2000 j/kg) to produce scattered thunderstorms especially over NE North Carolina.
1233 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 The positively tilted trough west of the CWA will continue to slowly move east and fill with weakened divergence aloft over the state. This will be the only chance for any stronger to marginally severe weather Tuesday with southeast surface flow bringing in the higher dewpoints. Isolated damaging winds and some hail will be the main threats, but the bulk of the good energy will be further east for the higher terrains of eastern Wyoming before spreading east into western portions of South Dakota and Nebraska.
A mid- level ridge centered over southern Texas has slowly crept eastward overnight and continues to build into the region. Temperatures have dropped into the lower 80s in most island communities, with a few inland, protected areas on the larger islands dropping into the mid to upper 70s due to radiational cooling. This drier air will continue to round the southeastern periphery of the expansive ridge over the next few days, and rain chances will fall to near or even slightly below the climatological normal for this time of year. The Keys will remain in an area of weak flow as a ridge axis extends over the area, so light and occasionally variable breezes will prevail. Temperatures will climb into the lower 90s each day, then will drop into the lower 80s each night.
349 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 500 mb ridge is anchored over texas with 500 mb jet on top of the ridge thru South Dakota and Nebraska.
105 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 A cold front with a few strong to severe thunderstorms will move east of our area tonight and to the Carolina coast by Tuesday morning.
Upper level troughing extends southward from the Great Lakes along the eastern seaboard to the east coast of Florida. This high pressure will remain over the gulf through the week keeping an onshore wind flow and will also keep the effects of the frontal boundary well to our north as the front moves eastward by the middle of the week. Above average temperatures will continue through the week with daytime highs topping out in the low to mid 90's and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70's.
305 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the area today and an upper level low pressure system moves off to the east.
Current satellite imagery shows clouds extending into northeastern counties as an upper level low continues to spin across the eastern Great Lakes. Upper ridging will build in through the day as the upper low moves east. Increasing large scale subsidence will keep weather conditions quiet during the period, but wrap-around flow from the upper low will bring Canadian wildfire smoke and hazy conditions back into the region today. Northwest flow around a dome of Arklatex high pressure will send some cirrus our way and there may be some lingering smoke from Quebec wildfires. Dew points will start creeping back to the mid 60s over southwestern parts of central Indiana as a warm front approaches from the southwest.
234 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure has set up over the Desert Southwest and spilled over east into the southern and central Plains.
(Today and tonight) Today remains the hottest day of the week courtesy of a dome of high pressure at 500 mb shifting from the Permian Basin into north-central TX by this evening. It's not often we see breezy winds during the summer with such hot temperatures, but such is the case today as a healthy SW gradient flow emerges along the NW periphery of this ridge. In addition to occasionally strong winds in places such as Caprock Canyons State Park, low temps in these areas may need to be bumped up further as these rotors often keep temps much warmer.
1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 (Tonight) Stuck between the upper low over the Great Lakes and the ridge across centered in the Southern Plains, we had breezy northwesterly winds today with gusts that will slack with sunset. Combined with the lower dewpoints, seeing a high once again in the lower 90s didn't feel nearly as bad as yesterday. Winds will become light after midnight, otherwise skies will be mostly clear with lows reaching the low/mid 60s.
134 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 The area will remain under the influence of the low pressure stem to our north.
137 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 A slow moving low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes will lead to numerous showers and a chance for thunderstorms today through Tuesday before dry conditions return by midweek.
1202 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) The upper ridge has shifted a bit east today and it is currently centered across south-central TX. At 1:30 pm, temperatures across the forecast area are actually running a bit cooler than yesterday at this time, mainly due to the higher moisture. Water vapor imagery shows some modest mid-level moisture and lift rotating around the ridge across southern NM. This wave should be able to gin up some t-storm activity across the higher terrain of NM this afternoon, spreading into NE NM. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will be gradually strengthening as a deep trough moves into the Great Basin and the ridge is nudged into east Texas.
Between the trof to the east and building ridge to the west, we'll see the ridge take over predominant influence increasingly thereafter.
With those scenarios and probs on the higher end will hedge toward needing the warning.
Upper level ridge drifts almost directly overhead today, with another day of readings climbing well above the 100 degree mark.
356 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm are expected to continue through tonight as low pressure slowly moves across the Great Lakes region.
Discussion: An upper low over the eastern Great Lakes region will transition to an open trough today, with the trough extending southward to the Carolina coastal region. Meanwhile an upper ridge will be centered over Texas, leaving continued northwest flow aloft over the forecast area. Highs should range between near 80 in the lower elevations in the north (a few degrees below normal), and to the upper 80s in the south.
1016 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 As the stacked system over the Great Lakes region slowly moves off to the east over the next 24 to 36 hours, the upper level ridge over the Central Plains will slide east into the region. For tonight, the diurnal cu will diminish by sunset with dry and slightly cooler weather as temperatures drop into the upper 50s to upper 60s. On Tuesday, as the upper level ridge builds into the region, 850mb temperatures will begin to rise from the southwest, so expect a 2 to 4 degree rise in highs.
Today, our region's resident low pressure system will move over central Idaho, leading to additional atmospheric instability and lift through the afternoon and evening. ) The areas most prone to experiencing the highest rainfall totals will be along and south of I-90, spanning central Idaho and west- central to southwest Montana.
It will be noticeably warmer today with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Discussion: At 2 AM, high pressure was centered across eastern South Dakota and low pressure was over northern lower Michigan. High pressure is forecast to move eastward across Iowa Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
1235 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm are expected to continue through tonight as low pressure slowly moves across the Great Lakes region.
300 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Current surface analysis shows high pressure to the east of the region, with frontal boundary near the lee of the central Rockies. Upper level analysis shows broad ridging over the Plains, with low pressure over the Great Lakes and a trough across the west coast region. Disturbances passing over and through northern portions of the ridge are bringing showers and storms to much of the northern/central Plains. Unsettled weather will continue at times through much of the week as ridge gradually moves east of the area and active west to southwest flow aloft brings additional disturbances across the region.
Sharply higher dewpoints will spread northward through the day as the warm front lifts northward with resultant afternoon heat index values warranting an expansion of the heat advisory.
148 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm are expected to continue through tonight as low pressure slowly moves across the Great Lakes region.
1057 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) A cold front that is providing temporary relief from heat and high humidity (most areas), has become nearly stationary across far southeast Oklahoma and northern Texas.
Otherwise, another hot day is expected today as upper ridging builds further into the area, with air temperatures likely 5-7 degrees warmer than yesterday for most. Lingering very moist airmass will lift northward during the afternoon, with dewpoints likely in the low to mid 70s across central and north-central Oklahoma by the afternoon, while values drop into the 50s/low 60s across southwest Oklahoma and north Texas. Later this evening, attention will turn to thunderstorms moving eastward off the high plains into the panhandles, with the expectation that these storms will eventually make it into northwest Oklahoma after 7 pm. Most of the CAM guidance has this activity skirting the northern part of our area overnight on the northern periphery of the ridge.
216 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 (Today) Satellite imagery this morning shows a low pressure system spinning across the eastern Great Lakes with a cold front draped along much of the East Coast and arcing back across the southern Gulf States. To our west, upper level ridging over the Plains is producing several clusters of thunderstorms riding along the ridge. The Tennessee Valley sits on the eastern extent of the upper ridge and as a result somewhat drier air is filtering in from the north and west as evident with surface dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s this morning. With the local forecast area north of the aforementioned front, expect another sunny and mild day with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 80s in the higher terrain across NE AL and southern middle Tennessee and lower 90s elsewhere.
1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Current satellite imagery shows cumulus slowly building across the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau while surface observations depict a weak lingering boundary draped across the I-20 corridor. If you're looking for some good news about the heat, you'll actually find some here! It's not really a heat wave busting cooldown but we'll see a gradual cooling trend through tomorrow as the center of the upper ridge jogs eastward towards east-central Texas. " Though it may "feel" cooler than it really is, sweat can evaporate away the second it wicks onto the skin, leading to rapid dehydration and heat exhaustion.
1002 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 (Issued 1002 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023) Low pressure over eastern MI and southeastern Ontario late this evening will continue to move into the New England states overnight. High pressure is building in across the state behind this exiting low pressure. Gradual height rises, subsidence and drying is expected tnt-Tue with a ridge of high pressure to finally arrive late on Tue.
659 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the area today and an upper level low pressure system moves off to the east. High pressure and a drier, more seasonable airmass will settle into the region for Wednesday. Upper level trough axis will shift east across the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley through this afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the 50s with highs on Wednesday in the low to mid 80s.
436 AM PDT Tue Jun 27 2023 A trough of low pressure over the western states will maintain below average high temperatures through Wednesday with night and morning coastal low clouds spreading farther into the valleys. Developing high pressure over California and Nevada will bring warming for late in the week through the weekend with weekend high temperatures around 10 degrees above average for the deserts and a few to around 5 degree above average elsewhere. That would put high temperatures in the lower deserts around 115 over the weekend and around 105 in the Apple and Lucerne Valleys.
We'll see mostly clear skies with increasing temperatures both today and tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s. This would likely be along and just south of the frontal boundary where the dewpoints will remain in the low 70s.
512 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 The positively tilted trough west of the CWA will continue to slowly move east and fill with weakened divergence aloft over the state. This will be the only chance for any stronger to marginally severe weather Tuesday with southeast surface flow bringing in the higher dewpoints.
944 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 A cold front will move through the area by tonight. High pressure then builds in behind it through mid to late week. Currently more stable air is trying to filter in from the west, however, eastern NC was still on the moist side of a weak cold front analyzed at 12Z on the door step of the coastal plain. This front will be slow to move east today as the base of the mid level trough indicated over NC this morning, slowly pivots east this afternoon into early evening.
The high pressure ridge overhead will likely suppress any additional convective attempts. 30 Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday/ A mid level ridge currently centered over the Texas Hill Country will shift slowly east/northeast over the region over the next few days. Unfortunately, the position of the ridge will preclude any significant rain chances through Wednesday.