Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ASOS sites across southeast Michigan depict temperatures ranging 30-34 F as of 20z, only a few degrees warmer than morning lows. Ridging comes to an end Sunday morning as a cutoff low meanders into the Ohio Valley on the northern periphery of the upper level jet. Temperatures will be similar to today, low to mid 30s, as passage of the high pressure center shields lower Michigan from influence of the surrounding thickness gradient. Broad ridging and height rises return for Monday, with westerly flow ushering in a slightly warmer airmass (850 MB temperatures to 0 C by Monday evening).
(Today through Monday) The most recent surface analysis positioned a cold front from Lufkin to Pleasanton to Del Rio. This front is expected to ooze through the BRO CWFA before easing back to the north as a warm front during the period. After rain-free conditions tonight, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible for all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Monday due to the proximity of the new warm front.
High pressure over the eastern United States reaches southward through florida and maintaining mostly moderate northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Conditions remain somewhat cool with temperatures in the lower 70s and dew points in the mid 60s. However, slightly cooler gulf and bay side waters may be able to hold winds back east northeasterly for much of the night. Clear skies, dew points expected to remain in the mid 60s and somewhat cooler waters to our north should allow temperatures to slip slowly into the upper 60s. A high pressure system moving eastward over the eastern United States will drive mostly moderate breezes further easterly overnight.
1205 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2023 Drier and cooler conditions are expected for the start of the week with a chilly start Sunday morning.
Clouds within the cold advection regime will exit stage right with the departing upper trof tonight. Ridging aloft will move over the Plains during Sunday with milder southerly flow developing across central and eastern Kansas. This will be followed by a relatively weak upper trof moving across mid-America on Monday with temperatures remaining above climo as it pushes a weak surface trof across the area.
1011 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 High pressure will linger over the region through this weekend. A weak cold front is forecast to move through Sunday night, followed by another area of high pressure. Flat ridging will prevail aloft, while a meso-high off the coast gives way to a larger and stronger area of high pressure that builds south from New York, Pennsylvania and Virginia. High pressure north of the area will shift to the east and off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.
This band of storms was ahead of an approaching cold front that will continue to drift slowly to the southeast the remainder of the night. The trough will push a weak cold front with Pacific origins slowly southeastward through the area mostly tonight, but only finally clearing the Pine Belt by early tomorrow afternoon. Lows tonight will be mild with rain falling, mostly in the low to mid 50s F. Highs on Sunday will continue to be mild, but a bit drier, highs mostly in the low to mid 60s F with dewpoints sinking into the 40s F by early evening.
(Today) High pressure centered over the southern plains will slowly slide east today, with a light wind regime expected through the afternoon.
(Today through Monday night) The latest upper level analysis reveals a notable trough moving onshore along the Pacific Northwest coast as a downstream ridge moves over the Rocky Mountains.
After that, a cold front associated with low pressure advancing from the TN valley over to the Mid Atlantic will approach Lake Okeechobee by the evening.
321 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2023 Today a broad, weak area of low pressure will advance from Mississippi to eastern Kentucky while a 5H vort max proceeds from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley. A light northwest breeze will bring in cooler air, with Monday morning lows ranging from the mid 20s in southern Indiana to lower 30s in southern Kentucky, which is close to where they should be at this time of year.
159 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2023 Weak low pressure will cross the area Sunday afternoon and Sunday night along with low chances of rain showers.
(Today through Monday) A slow moving low pressure system will continue to impact Middle Tennessee this morning with scattered showers, areas of fog and patchy drizzle. High temps today will be mostly in the lower 50s. High pressure will move into the area late tonight. Skies will start to clear from the west, but the low clouds are likely to hang on for the Plateau. Lows will dip into the lower 30s for most areas.
354 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2023 Dry weather is expected through most of the day under high pressure. A wintry mix returns late today and tonight with crossing low pressure. High pressure then returns dry weather and above average temperatures through the middle of the upcoming week. An upper level low over the Central Plains will weaken as it slowly crosses from the Ohio River Valley to the Atlantic Coast tonight into Monday morning. Dry weather will quickly resume through the day Monday as the trough is replaced by sfc ridging and dry NW flow aloft, though snow showers may linger longest in higher terrain with upslope flow/cold advection/vort advection combo.
646 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2023 Low pressure will move from Tennessee across central and eastern Kentucky and then into West Virginia today into tonight.
This may allow low stratus to begin climbing back northward into Central Texas during the day Monday, but modest warm advection and filtered insolation will still allow highs to climb several degrees warmer than today, with readings in the upper 60s and lower 70s. /Issued 235 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023/ /Monday Night Onward/ A warming trend will transpire during the early to middle part of the work week as a mid level ridge strengthens overhead.
The cold front appears to be on the move this morning, so thinking the showers and thunderstorms will come to an end later this morning, shortly after sunrise with maybe a few lingering showers across our far southeast zones till around noon. Temperatures today will be around 10 degrees above normal as highs reach the lower to mid 60s across the region. Not much change for Monday in regards to temperatures, with highs expected to reach the lower to mid 60s once again.
Thus, a dense fog advisory has been issued in response to the lowering visibility.
(Today through Monday Night ) After low clouds/patchy fog this morning, high pressure will begin building over Arkansas from the Plains today.
Conditions overnight will promote the growth of widespread freezing fog.
559 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023 (Today through Monday) The most recent surface analysis positioned a cold front from Lufkin to Pleasanton to Del Rio. This front is expected to ooze through the BRO CWFA before easing back to the north as a warm front during the period. After rain-free conditions tonight, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible for all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Monday due to the proximity of the new warm front.
A ridge remains over the region again tonight causing stable conditions and widespread fog and stratus.
Cooler thermo profiles will only support highs in the low 60s N to mid 60s to the S. With cooler air & moist soils, some patchy fog is possible again late tonight across central portions of the region. Model guidance highlights an upper ridge building over the central CONUS before tracking east towards our CWA. In response to this, a high pressure system should begin to build over our forecast region limiting the inflow of moisture from the Gulf Coast. With cooler temperatures aloft, afternoon temperatures should peak in the upper 50s to low 60 across most of our area.
540 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2023 A sharp low-level inversion continues to trap a shallow layer of moisture through 2-3 kft which has maintained widespread mvfr stratus across the entirety of the lower peninsula. Extensive low level cloudiness remains the most noteworthy feature as moisture remains trapped below a low level inversion associated with surface ridging over the area. This ridge will weaken today into tonight as a cutoff low over the mid Mississippi valley opens into a wave and skirts south of the area as it tracks through the Ohio Valley.
Today a broad, weak area of low pressure will advance from Mississippi to eastern Kentucky while a 5H vort max proceeds from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley. A light northwest breeze will bring in cooler air, with Monday morning lows ranging from the mid 20s in southern Indiana to lower 30s in southern Kentucky, which is close to where they should be at this time of year.
MSAS analysis depicts a cold front draped from the Victoria Crossroads to the Brush Country. A coastal trough will begin to take shape through the day Monday. By the middle of the week, another upper trough will move east across the Rockies and towards the Plains.
A cold front trailing south of this low is forecast to move across the area today.
While some winds could gust upwards of 40 mph, this may be only confined to the highest peaks and would be short lived.
542 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023 (Today through Monday night) The latest upper level analysis reveals a notable trough moving onshore along the Pacific Northwest coast as a downstream ridge moves over the Rocky Mountains.
516 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023 (Today through Monday) A slow moving low pressure system will continue to impact Middle Tennessee this morning with scattered showers, areas of fog and patchy drizzle. High temps today will be mostly in the lower 50s. High pressure will move into the area late tonight. Skies will start to clear from the west, but the low clouds are likely to hang on for the Plateau. Lows will dip into the lower 30s for most areas.
525 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) After low clouds/patchy fog this morning, high pressure will begin building over Arkansas from the Plains today.
Another quiet day across the area with minimal weather impacts as upper ridging builds. Nonetheless for much of the area we'll see warmer day time highs, with temps climbing into the low 20s in many places and upper teens in the cool spots.
412 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2023 Low pressure will move from Tennessee across central and eastern Kentucky and then into West Virginia today into tonight.
407 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023 Low pressure and an associated cold front will exit the region this morning.
This in turn will allow surface lee troughing to continue across eastern Colorado today bringing light southwest winds to western Kansas. This trough of low pressure will slide eastward tonight shifting winds to the northwest by sunrise tomorrow. One of these storms is showing signs of closing off as a small upper level low as it moves east across the Rockies and into the Central Plains by mid week.
523 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023 Low pressure and an associated cold front will exit the region this morning.
(Today through Monday Night) This morning is a transition from dry to wet in the form of a cold front moving into the area.
A stronger cold front will then approach the waters at the end of the period, with winds increasing some and turning to the south ahead of it.
524 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023 (Today) High pressure centered over the southern plains will slowly slide east today, with a light wind regime expected through the afternoon.
516 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023 (Today through Monday) At the time of this writing (around 07Z), the cold front has already cleared all of south-central Texas, and the risk for locally heavy rain and marginally severe weather has ended for our region. Given the weak nature of the cold front in terms of temperature change, we'll remain above average with lows in the 40s to mid 50s this morning and highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.
330 AM MST Sun Jan 8 2023 Mean central CONUS ridging will prevail in most of the period, supporting a mean gradual warming trend. The only exception is an expected upper trough which will cross the region Wed, supporting some rain and snow in portions of the area. Snow pack will continue to affect temps in the east, with cooler conds there. Much warmer temps on track for the end of the week, as a long wave ridge slowly shifts east supporting much warmer temps along with continued dry weather.
313 AM MST Sun Jan 8 2023 Today looks to be close to a repeat of yesterday with a shallow and stubborn inversion present, but with patchy freezing fog more prevalent this morning. A warm frontal passage tonight should come through dry and be associated with slightly elevated southwest winds that will aid in mixing out some of the inversion. This will likely result in the first temperatures at/above freezing in a while across the north, with mostly snow-free areas to the south/west of Fort Peck Lake still quite mild in the 40s to lower 50s. The rest of the week looks mostly dry and slightly warmer than normal, as generally zonal flow will be in place.
Temperatures are trying to get into the low 50s everywhere and while most have gotten there, we might have a couple of holdouts on the Plateau.
1226 PM MST Sun Jan 8 2023 Water vapor shows ridge over the Plains and large trof over the far western CONUS. At the surface, lee trof is deepening over the Rocky Mountain front range. Flow aloft will be generally be zonal or ridging, with mild temps and not much chance for precip. The only trof to watch is mid week, but guidance has continued to show low probabilities for precip across our area with better chances to our south. The ridge looks to be at its strongest across the region for the end of the week and weekend, with GEFS climate percentiles near the max of climatology for both 850 and 700mb temps.
The cold front responsible for the dreariness this morning is edging into NW AL, draped NW to SE from Nashville SWWrd through Central MS/Golden Triangle region, and will continue to meander Ewrd through the day.
1131 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023 (Today through Monday night) The latest upper level analysis reveals a notable trough moving onshore along the Pacific Northwest coast as a downstream ridge moves over the Rocky Mountains.
This is based on elevation (lower elevations are colder, higher elevations are warmer) and also whether or not there is any wind to mix down some of the warmer air aloft. Temperatures remain similar to the past few days, albeit slightly warmer. The kicker compared to yesterday is the westerly component should help funnel in slightly warmer air. This should help produce slightly warmer highs reaching the low 20s in the James River Valley and ranging into the mid to possibly upper 30s in far southwestern ND.
Ridging aloft plus clear skies and dry southwest winds at the surface are spelling out warmer temps today as we reach into the 60s for highs in some areas. As the downsloping occurs in the afternoon, lee side troughing will help to turn winds back to southerly, particularly in the west.
High pressure has returned to the Northland with clear sunny skies and a stout inversion. That will come into play tonight as surface temperatures cool quickly as the sun sets and the lowest levels of the atmosphere saturate quickly. Confidence is high for widespread fog/freezing fog development across the Northland, lingering into mid tomorrow morning. Freezing fog will also likely lead to ice accumulations on surfaces, including roads which may make for some slippery sections for the Monday morning commute.
The gradual increase in both low level moisture and clouds will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer tonight than they were this morning with mainly upper 30s and lower 40s. A warming trend will begin Monday with a building ridge aloft and increasing low level warm air advection. Highs will range from the mid 60s in the east, where clouds will be most abundant, to the lower 70s in the west.
(The rest of this afternoon ) Low clouds have finally dissipated over far northeast OK and expect sfc ridging over the area much of tonight. Far NE corner of OK has remained considerably cooler today as a result of persistent clouds and as such, seeing much smaller dew point depressions st this time.
Extensive low level cloudiness remains the most noteworthy feature as moisture remains trapped below a low level inversion associated with surface ridging over the area. This ridge will weaken today into tonight as a cutoff low over the mid Mississippi valley opens into a wave and skirts south of the area as it tracks through the Ohio Valley.
To the south of I-64 temps were in the lower-mid 40s with upper 40s mainly south of the Cumberland Parkway. Today a broad, weak area of low pressure will advance from Mississippi to eastern Kentucky while a 5H vort max proceeds from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley. A light northwest breeze will bring in cooler air, with Monday morning lows ranging from the mid 20s in southern Indiana to lower 30s in southern Kentucky, which is close to where they should be at this time of year.
1140 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023 (Today through Monday) The most recent surface analysis positioned a cold front from Lufkin to Pleasanton to Del Rio. This front is expected to ooze through the BRO CWFA before easing back to the north as a warm front during the period. After rain-free conditions tonight, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible for all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Monday due to the proximity of the new warm front.
142 PM MST Sun Jan 8 2023 Weak ridging is present over the High Plains leading to above normal temperatures, especially for locales out of the snow pack as eastern portions of the area has warmed into the mid 50s. Monday, will see another day of above normal temperatures for the area with highs in the low 40s to upper 50s. A weak wave traversing over the area will switch winds northerly mainly north of I-70 which may limit overall warming for the northern counties as cooler air does reside over the northern Plains.
As a weakening cold front moves across the area this afternoon, southerly winds around 5 knots will shift to northwesterly 5 to 10 knots.
Rain tapers off this evening as the cold front moves east and drier air arrives from the west. While some winds could gust upwards of 40 mph, this may be only confined to the highest peaks and would be short lived.
(Through Monday) A cold front will push through the area overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. High temperatures tomorrow are forecast in the low to mid 60s across SE Alabama, SW Georgia, and the FL Panhandle, while the Florida Big Bend are forecast in the upper 60s to near 70.
349 PM EST Sun Jan 8 2023 A weak area of low pressure will move northeast through the Ohio Valley this evening.
A progressive and relatively weak upper trof will move eastward across the Plains on Monday with afternoon temperatures climbing well above climo as it pushes a weak surface trof across the area.
1253 PM EST Sun Jan 8 2023 High pressure continues to provide pleasant conditions across the area today, but moisture will continue to increase and a dry and weak boundary will move through the area Monday.
(This evening through Monday) An upper level ridge will lead to benign conditions the rest of today with mostly clear skies.
The gradual increase in both low level moisture and clouds will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer tonight than they were this morning with mainly upper 30s and lower 40s. A warming trend will begin Monday with a building ridge aloft and increasing low level warm air advection. Highs will range from the mid 60s in the east, where clouds will be most abundant, to the lower 70s in the west. /Issued 235 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023/ /Monday Night Onward/ A warming trend will transpire during the early to middle part of the work week as a mid level ridge strengthens overhead.
Return flow overnight will lead to warmer temperatures than what we saw this morning.
1110 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023 (Today through Monday) At the time of this writing (around 07Z), the cold front has already cleared all of south-central Texas, and the risk for locally heavy rain and marginally severe weather has ended for our region. Given the weak nature of the cold front in terms of temperature change, we'll remain above average with lows in the 40s to mid 50s this morning and highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.
956 AM MST Sun Jan 8 2023 Mean central CONUS ridging will prevail in most of the period, supporting a mean gradual warming trend. The only exception is an expected upper trough which will cross the region Wed, supporting some rain and snow in portions of the area. Snow pack will continue to affect temps in the east, with cooler conds there. Much warmer temps on track for the end of the week, as a long wave ridge slowly shifts east supporting much warmer temps along with continued dry weather.
Drier and cooler air arrives with clearing sky conditions with near normal temperatures on Monday. Behind the front, westerly and northwesterly flow will advect cooler and drier air across the area tonight. With some shallow moisture, upslope orographic lift is expected across the higher elevations of the mountains with some lingering snow showers possible above 4000 feet elevation. Drier air moving into the area will result in some clearing conditions on Monday with sunshine expected by the afternoon as upper ridging and subsidence begin increasing from the west. Temperatures will remain cool behind the cold front, but with upper heights and boundary layer temperatures near climate normals, forecast max temperatures will be near normal.
Lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Monday will be warmer, 70 to 75.
257 PM EST Sun Jan 8 2023 A weak cold front will move through tonight, followed by high pressure through midweek.
1204 PM CST Sun Jan 8 2023 Low pressure and an associated cold front will exit the region this morning.
With that being said, temperatures have ranged between the lower to middle 20s to the north, with lower to middle 30s to the south. An area of high pressure will settle just south of our region, keeping dry conditions in place tonight. Warmer temperatures will filter into the area Monday, thanks to southerly return flow on the western side of the high pressure ridge axis as it shifts eastward, resulting in highs warming to the upper 30s north to the middle 40s south.
A frontal trough will pass over the region late tonight into early Monday largely unrecognized.
(Tonight through Monday night) Dry and sunny conditions are in place this afternoon in the wake of last night's cold front passage.
Majority of the region will top out above freezing in the afternoon for the next several days. The low stratus/fog is expected to slowly erode late Monday morning and allow skies to clear.
In addition to the low-level clouds tonight, patchy fog may also develop, mainly in central and north-central WI. Some clearing is anticipated on Monday, but an approaching weak low pressure system will cause clouds to increase again by late Monday afternoon.
(This evening through Monday Night) The last of the low clouds are moving slowly across I-20 in NE LA with mid 50s and nothing but sunshine everywhere else. 2 pm temps in the sun are in the low to mid 60s with northerly winds 5 to 15 mph as high pressure settles in for the night. A weak upper low will translate eastward along the Gulf coastal states keeping rain chances down along I-10. We will see a warmer range of 40s overnight Monday as the southerly winds persist.
(Tonight through Monday night) A cold front cleared the region, barely, this morning with clouds and slightly cooler temperatures back behind it.
The cold front responsible for the drizzly weather today currently bisects the local CWFA NE to SW across the middle of the area, with just a few echoes still meandering out of NE AL at this hour. Cooler air will filter into the region overnight, with morning lows falling into the middle 30s.