Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1044 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2023 Current analysis shows an upper level ridge moving into the region under northerly flow aloft. A jet streak aloft has accompanied this ridge and has likely been the culprit of keeping just enough lift around to support light showers earlier this evening. It will be chilly tonight with lows in the teens for the lower elevations and even cooler in those lower valley spots. The high resolution models keep this going into early evening. Models have upper ridging move eastward across the the CWA late tonight and Sunday. Upper level trough over the Great Basin dives south and closes off near Las Vegas.
Upstream high pressure ridge aloft will shift over Eastern Colorado by this evening. Expect only a few degrees of warming with most locations on the plains rising close to freezing. However the weaker northern branch and weak cold front associated with this low will move into northern Colorado later tonight with shallow upslope developing and slow saturation in the low levels. As the upper level trough continues to deepen south, light snowfall will impact the mountains and foothills Monday morning.
Warmer than average temperatures are expected today with very breezy southerly winds. An isolated shower can't be ruled out this afternoon and evening, but the better chances for rainfall will be during the overnight hours as a cold front moves south across the region. This will bring in slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow to start the work week.
Latest radar and satellite imagery continues to see the progression of snow showers in association with the trough brushing the eastern portion of the region. However, latest trends have seen more significant accumulation in the higher elevations.
Strong winds are likely in the higher elevations of the Sierra tonight into Monday morning. Fog is possible the next few mornings in the San Joaquin Valley with overnight lows around freezing. Latest blended and high resolution model guidance continues to provide around 55 to 65 percent probabilities for low temperatures at or below freezing in the San Joaquin Valley this morning as well as areas of visibilities 1/4 mile or less. These model predictions warrant upgrading to a High Wind Warning for the higher elevation zones and extending through Monday afternoon. The dry northerly flow will continue to provide cooler than normal temperatures for the next couple of days, with overnight lows around the freezing mark in the San Joaquin Valley.
Cooler temperatures will filter into the area tonight with lows dropping into the low to mid 30s.
Highs should be right around, to slightly below freezing. Highs will be right around freezing.
Overcast skies should remain in place through the morning hours before starting to clear from the southwest to northeast during the afternoon hours as the upper- level trough responsible for the wet weather today continues to push to the northeast. The clearing skies along with northwesterly flow will help overnight temperatures drop into the mid to upper 20s for areas along and north of I-30 while the remainder of the area will be in the lower 30s. Mostly clear skies will prevail as we move into Monday, with afternoon highs reaching the lower to upper 50s across the region, which is around normal for this time of the year. /33/ (Monday Night through Sunday) By Monday night, upper-level ridging will begin to shift east of the region as we await the next significant weather disturbance shifting our direction from the Desert SW.
Cooler temperatures arrive to end the week with readings trending near to below normal. Weak high pressure was over the region early this morning, but a stout low level inversion was leading to widespread low stratus and areas of fog. Despite the weak riding in place today, this low stratus is expected to persist through the day along with areas of fog. The weak ridging will move east tonight with zonal flow taking its place. This system looks to be rather moisture starved with any accumulations being around an inch or less with the highest amounts along the International Border and across northern Iron County where some lake-enhanced snowfall will add to the total.
Temperatures below freezing may lead to slick spots in places with this fog.
A upper level low pressure system was centered over WA/OR/ID. The pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure over west-central CO was sufficient to generate gusty west winds across the I-80 corridor in Carbon and Albany counties. The High Wind Watch was cancelled earlier for the North Snowy Range Foothills and Arlington.
546 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 (Today) A dreary start to the day as an area of low pressure swinging across the Deep South has brought dense cloud cover and widespread (100%) light rain showers to the region early this morning.
KBYX Doppler radar is only detecting a few isolated light showers in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys owed to a veering wind profile (warm advection, large-scale forcing for ascent). Ahead of this trough, the Florida Keys will be in col region, with light southerly flow. This is a classic setup for a potential sea fog event for the cooler waters north of the island chain late Sunday night into early Monday. This includes whether the sea surface temperatures are quite cool enough as well as if the winds can collapse at the same time as the dew points rebound into the lower 70s.
Winds will become gusty today, with some scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible mainly across the northern zones as the warm front that is currently draped across the Tampa area continues to lift north. The cold front with this system will then move through the area overnight, with greater rain chances gradually shifting south over the area ahead of and with the front.
(Today through Monday) Low pressure has developed along the central Gulf Coast. This low will move northeast today and then emerge off of the Delmarva tonight and move up into New England on Monday. The low center should move across southern GA today and eroding a weak wedge currently in place across northeast portions of the state. High pressure will build back in from the west on Monday. There are also some small chances for rain/snow showers in the northeast mountains on the backside of the exiting low pressure system. with up to a quarter of an inch expected at the highest elevations.
Highs today will be a few degrees cooler with mainly 50s.
245 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2023 09z surface analysis had weak high over the eastern Dakotas into northeast CO and trough from central MT into northeastern WY. Nighttime microphysics RGB/observations depicted fog over Tripp County and near Pine Ridge. Water vapour had upper low spinning into ID, which will be the main weather maker in the near term.
This will allow an upper level ridge to build over the central CONUS for Sunday and Monday. In the meantime, a potent mid/upper level low is forecast to move along the Mexico/U.
Showers remain in the region today as an upper level low moves across the region.
Current surface analysis places modest ridge passing over the Northern Plains. Upper level analysis places low/trough over the Midwest into the Southern Plains, with ridge over the Central Rockies stretching into the Canadian Plains. As we head into the end of the week and the start of the upcoming week, models continue to depict a large area of low pressure developing south into the Hudson Bay region, which look to bring an Arctic cold front or two into the region and much colder temperatures.
421 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 Winds will become gusty today, with some scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible mainly across the northern zones as the warm front that is currently draped across the Tampa area continues to lift north. The cold front with this system will then move through the area overnight, with greater rain chances gradually shifting south over the area ahead of and with the front.
The chance for light rain is expected to shift east along the Highway 82 corridor through the afternoon and into this evening before tapering off from the west.
The main upper trough axis is still well west of Alabama over the Southern Plains states, so it will take time for all of the showers to move out of Central Alabama. Low clouds extend back to east Texas, but some clearing possible across west Alabama this afternoon as westerly low level flow advects drier air behind a weak cold front. Decreasing clouds on Monday as the main upper trough axis moves east of Alabama.
604 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 A low pressure system will move northeast across the Tennessee and upper Ohio Valleys today, bringing mainly rain and snow to the region. A chance of rain and snow will linger into tonight and Monday as an upper level trough crosses the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
356 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Current surface analysis places modest ridge passing over the Northern Plains. Upper level analysis places low/trough over the Midwest into the Southern Plains, with ridge over the Central Rockies stretching into the Canadian Plains. As we head into the end of the week and the start of the upcoming week, models continue to depict a large area of low pressure developing south into the Hudson Bay region, which look to bring an Arctic cold front or two into the region and much colder temperatures. A cold front moving into western North Dakota early Sunday evening will bring MVFR ceilings and gusty west-northwest winds across the state through Sunday night.
The cold won't last very long once the sun comes up and we'll warm quickly to the 50s this afternoon under weak upper ridging. Clear skies continuing into tonight should once again bring near to below freezing temperatures, although Monday morning will be slightly warmer than Sunday morning. The next system to impact our region is a large upper low currently over Idaho that will move into New Mexico on Monday, potentially bringing us some precipitation.
Expect increasing cloud cover as the day progresses in response to an approaching low pressure system making its way into the Great Basin. In addition, snow levels will drop to between 2500 to 3500 feet, meaning much of the high country will see snowfall. We'll also see gusty northeast winds of 30 to 40 mph behind the cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning, leading to areas of blowing snow. The low makes its way to the southeastern corner of AZ Monday evening and exits the state around midnight.
Northerly winds will increase today, becoming particularly gusty on the ridges.
227 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with northwest flow and meso ridge trough couplet embedded in it with the chinook ridge over northeast Montana and the closed low over southern Idaho. Behind this a large ridge is developing over the northeast Pacific while cold air is beginning to pool up over the Alaskan north slope. At which point a disturbance and weak cold front will bring snow showers and low clouds to the region through the afternoon and evening hours.
These will provide enough insulation that low temperatures this morning will be a little warmer than they have been. At a larger scale, an upper ridge is building just offshore, resulting in a decrease in cloud cover over the day and into tonight. Increased radiational cooling overnight and northerly flow will mean a return to chillier low temperatures and areas of fog and freezing fog in sheltered valleys. High pressure/ridging remains the dominant pattern for most of the week, with clear, dry weather. Nocturnal inversions could persist through the days with the poor mixing due to a combination of the ridge and low sun inclination, so valley fog will continue to be likely and air stagnation could pose an issue.
414 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2023 Today, the upper trough will move further east across the Midwest as a weak upper ridge moves over the Rockies and the High Plains. Cloud cover is expected to increase tonight to become mostly cloudy as the upper trough swings over the area while the closed low moves across Arizona. Overnight lows looks to be slightly warmer with temperatures in the low to mid teens.
The inversion and low level moisture may also cause some patchy fog or freezing fog at times, mainly across central and north-central Wisconsin. Some fog or freezing fog will also once again be possible later tonight across central and north-central Wisconsin. The trough will be mostly moisture starved; therefore, snowfall amounts are expected to be at most a few tenths across north-central Wisconsin.
554 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Showers remain in the region today as an upper level low moves across the region.
Across the Central CONUS, a trough of low pressure extended from western Ontario, south southwest to the Texas Panhandle. East of this feature, a low amplitude ridge extended from the western Carolinas north into eastern Ohio. West of the trough, a high amplitude ridge extended from southern Idaho, north into eastern portions of the NW Territories of Canada.
We cannot rule out slick spots on bridges and overpasses as temperatures in this area are 32-34F. This will be driven by an upper trof across the area. Given the clouds and the presence of the upper trof, we think the NBM is too "warm" for highs today. Monday through Monday night will be dry with high pressure taking control of our weather.
(Today) A dreary start to the day as an area of low pressure swinging across the Deep South has brought dense cloud cover and widespread (100%) light rain showers to the region early this morning.
The driver of this boundary is the mid/upper level low pressure system dropping into the Great Basin. Peak gusts of 40 to 60 mph will occur in these areas with isolated stronger gusts in the highest peaks of the North Bay and East Bay. These winds will also keep overnight temperatures up a bit as we are currently seeing values a few to as much as 10 deg F warmer compared to 24 hours ago. Winds will ease by late Monday as the mid/upper level trough settles over Arizona before shifting eastward later in the week. As this occurs, mid/upper level ridging over the eastern Pacific will build inland into California resulting in a gradual warming trend.
439 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2023 A high pressure ridge offshore of coastal western US appears to remain on track for intensification over the next 1 to 2 weeks, allowing a more active and eventually colder pattern for the Northern Rockies.
This low will progress southward over the Great Basin today and Arizona tomorrow. The valleys around the Four Corners region and along the highway 160 could get a few inches, but impacts should be minor. Confidence in this becoming a widespread impact is low at this point so held off on any products in the lower elevations.
After a cold start to the day high temperatures this afternoon will be warmer, by around 4 to 10 degrees, than yesterday.
Clouds this morning have increased across the Rio Grande Plains, while clouds across the Coastal Bend continue to move off the coast in the wake of a weak cold front. Despite the cold front moving through the area earlier this morning, highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday in response to the more abundant sunshine and dry environment. This is in response to a deepening upper level low that will be digging southeastward across the Desert Southwest. The increasing winds will usher moisture and warmer temperatures back across S TX.
At the surface, low pressure is situated over western AR with light northwesterly flow over the Plains. Some flurries may accompany the low clouds this morning but no additional accumulation is anticipated. By this evening, the departing trough will extend from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Western Great Lakes region while the western CONUS upper low moves into the Desert Southwest. By Tue morning, upper low will be moving into far West TX and will track across central TX Tue. Right now have the highest confidence in areas southeast of the KS Turnpike seeing accumulating snow Tue night into Wed morning but any small change to the track of the upper low could still change this. Just like this last system, precip type looks to be snow, rain or a mix of both with freezing rain or sleet not expected.
313 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2023 Today, the upper trough will move further east across the Midwest as a weak upper ridge moves over the Rockies and the High Plains. Cloud cover is expected to increase tonight to become mostly cloudy as the upper trough swings over the area while the closed low moves across Arizona. Overnight lows looks to be slightly warmer with temperatures in the low to mid teens.
Upper level trough and weak low pressure has brought light snow to much of the dvn cwa beginning last evening through the overnight hours. As low pressure tracks from the Deep South to the mid Atlantic states, north winds will increase to around 10 mph by this afternoon with any lingering fog dissipating by noon. Tonight: Becoming partly cloudy as high pressure ridge builds into the area. A colder night is expected considering some snow cover with lows bottoming out in the teens nw to the lower 20s se.
651 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 Snow and rain is expected this afternoon, changing to all snow tonight and continuing into Monday as a low pressure system passes to the southeast. The upper trough will remain fairly progressive while deepening today, passing over the Upper Midwest. With sfc forcing weak, as the low placement remains well southeast, the Upper Ohio River Valley will rely on jet ascent within SW flow ahead of the trough axis to promote widespread precipitation this afternoon and evening. This should keep any elevated warm layer near the 0 degree isotherm, while enough diurnal heating should keep area sfc temperature above freezing.
350 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2023 09z surface analysis had weak high over the eastern Dakotas into northeast CO and trough from central MT into northeastern WY. Nighttime microphysics RGB/observations depicted fog over Tripp County and near Pine Ridge. Water vapour had upper low spinning into ID, which will be the main weather maker in the near term.
Expect temperatures to remain slightly warmer than last night thanks to warming aloft, but it will still be another chilling night with lows in the single digits to teens.
1028 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 12Z upper air analysis/GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends depict a longwave upper level trough extending from Ontario back through the Upper Midwest and into the Central and Southern Plains. CJC Showers remain in the region today as an upper level low moves across the region.
Early afternoon satellite imagery was showing an upper low digging sharply south along the Utah-Nevada border with diminishing radar returns across SE Idaho. A colder and drier airmass will filter into the region overnight behind the exiting upper low with modest gap winds developing near Arco, Howe, and Spencer. A secondary disturbance tops the ERN Pacific ridge and digs SE through British Columbia tonight and WRN Montana Monday providing a glancing chance of light snow in the Island Park region and likely a few flurries with the Snake River Plain as we see seeder-feeder mechanisms at work.
1025 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 A low pressure system will move northeast across the Tennessee and upper Ohio Valleys today, bringing mainly rain and snow to the region. A chance of rain and snow will linger into tonight and Monday as an upper level trough crosses the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Extensive low clouds covered nearly all of the lower-48 east of the Mississippi River except for parts of Florida. Thus fog, some of it dense was occurring in the higher elevations around the Tennessee Valley. More chances of light rain do come back in the afternoon, as a trough or frontal boundary feature to our NW sweeps SE-ward across the area.
Snow showers begin to increase over the higher terrain of far northern Arizona this evening, then increase in coverage spreading southward through the overnight. Showers begin to taper off through the evening as the low begins to propagate eastward into New Mexico. With the cold low directly overhead, snow levels fall down to around 3000-3500 feet, thus much of the area (outside of the lowest elevations) will see some snow with this storm. The greatest accumulations are mainly expected to be focused over the higher terrain, above 5500 feet and in the northward-facing upslope regions.
305 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 Snow and rain this afternoon will change to all snow tonight and continuing into Monday as a low pressure system passes to the southeast. Jet ascent within SW flow ahead of an approaching midwest trough will maintain widespread precipitation this afternoon and evening across the region. This should keep any elevated warm layer near the 0 degree isotherm and sfc temperatures dipping to around freezing at onset, before rising slightly above freezing as time progresses this afternoon. Impacts should be minimal with road temperatures largely above freezing. The Winter Weather Advisory is still out for Eastern Tucker there still may be some spots of freezing rain with a couple of sites still reporting 32F, and still some room for additional sfc wet bulbing.
948 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Over-running light rain will continue for lower Acadiana for another few hours, ending by early afternoon as the main upper level trough axis moves through and deeper northwest flow will bring in drier air and clearing skies.
JEH/88 (Now through Monday) Showers are expected to continue for areas along and southeast of the I-65 corridor through the rest of the afternoon and into the early evening as a cold front continues pushing east of the area and a trough gradually lifts off to the northeast. By tonight, dry conditions expected across the area, as the trough lifts out of the region and the front moves well east of the area.
255 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region on Monday. A low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley during the middle part of the week, bringing the next chance for precipitation. Temperatures have risen to near or just above freezing. Mid level trough axis and any lingering pcpn will shift east of the area through Monday morning. Will lower temps a bit in areas with snow cover with highs on Monday in the low to mid 30s.
(This afternoon through Monday night) A strong upper low moving down through the Great Basin today will move south across AZ tonight as brief ridging extends across the region. This low will slowly wobble SE Monday moving across Srn NM into W TX Monday night. The result will be a windy day especially across the Lower Trans Pecos with gusty SE inflow. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal tonight and tomorrow with lows mainly in the 30s with a few 20s north and across the higher elevations.
1242 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2023 Today, the upper trough will move further east across the Midwest as a weak upper ridge moves over the Rockies and the High Plains. Cloud cover is expected to increase tonight to become mostly cloudy as the upper trough swings over the area while the closed low moves across Arizona. Overnight lows looks to be slightly warmer with temperatures in the low to mid teens.
115 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2023 A robust cutoff upper-level low pressure deepens and drops southward across Utah this afternoon. Forcing with this system will mostly miss Wyoming to the west and south, but the open trough to the north will still provide an area of broad lift across the state as a weak cold front pushes southward. Expect some gusty north winds to accompany the snow for northern Johnson County and Sweetwater County as the cold front moves through this evening and overnight. Despite the cold front, basins east of the Divide are expected to be warmer than last night, as mixing and cloud cover will keep cold pools from forming. Monday will only be a few degrees cooler than today, given the incoming air mass has maritime origins.