Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
418 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2023 Increasing southwest winds will usher in warmer air and increasing chances for rain by tonight. As the warm front takes shape and pushes north today, rain will quickly develop from MO to NE by this morning and then expand quickly NE towards the region. As the low draws closer, increasing pressure gradient will result in winds picking up with rather breezy conditions late tonight into Thursday. A few of the models suggest better mixing overnight as the warm front passes overhead, but thinking inversion may keep worst gusts just above the ground. Temperatures will remain steady or slowly climb overnight as the warmer air arrives.
This will allow for a quick burst of 35 mph and some 40 mph wind gusts along some coastal areas and ridges as well as very brief, isolated rainfall rates up to a half inch an hour. Precipitation and cloud cover is forecast to dissipate Wednesday night through Thursday morning as post-trough midlevel heights begin to rise. A prominent midlevel ridge is also forecast to become established over the NERN PAC from Thursday through the weekend. The ridge will favor dry weather for the foreseeable future. Low level wind shear will occur over the coastal terminals this morning as a southerly speed max develops in advance of a cold front.
530 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 A warm front is draped over the Mid South and will surge northward as a cold front approaches the forecast area this afternoon and evening.
A cold front passes across the region tomorrow, allowing for light mountain snow.
A warm front is draped over the Mid South and will surge northward as a cold front approaches the forecast area this afternoon and evening.
Both of these boundaries will tend to focus shower activity through tonight before they lift northward ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front should move through during the day on Thursday.
649 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Still getting reports of patchy light freezing drizzle this morning in eastern ND and NW portions of MN. We will continue to monitor the light freezing drizzle this morning. Under the stratus we have seen reports of freezing drizzle to a freezing mist at times in the valley towards the west. Guidance struggles to pick up this freezing drizzle to mist and setting an end time. Areas that have freezing drizzle/mist could see minor impacts to travel due to slick conditions affecting the morning commute. On top of the flurries/freezing mist/freezing drizzle we have continued to see patchy fog in the Devils Lake Basin on and off this morning.
331 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 In the upper levels early this morning, ridging was over the Northern Plains, a weak closed low was circulating over eastern Montana, and a potent trough was ejecting out of the Four Corners region into the Central Plains. Precipitation from this trough is expected to remain south of North Dakota today. Ample low level moisture remains in place with the persistently diffuse surface pressure field, responsible for widespread stratus and nightly development of fog and freezing mist or drizzle in areas. Where visibilities are reduced, some slippery surfaces may develop from the freezing fog.
Upper level ridging is filling in over the Northland in the wake of an exiting Colorado Low. The 00Z suite of deterministic model guidance is coming into pretty good agreement with the polar high south of the Hudson Bay deflecting the brunt of this low to our southeast. As the low sets its sights on Lake Michigan winds across Western Lake Superior will increase and turn to out of the northeast. The main band of the precipitation associated with the low will enter from the south tonight.
627 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2023 (Today through Thursday) A ridge of higher geopotential heights with a closed center situated just south of Cuba continues to maintain a strong footprint over the state of Florida. As winds becomes more southeast in nature, a mild maritime tropical airmass will encompass the region, allowing for warmer minimum temperatures this morning around 50 degrees for the interior and upper 50s to lower 60s along the coasts. Winds become more south to southwest in nature, which will allow for an uptick in temperatures and dewpoints, although rainfall is still unlikely due to suppressive nature of upper high and lack of deep moisture. High temperatures will crawl into the lower 80s Thursday afternoon.
Otherwise, a cold front will move into the region later today. Highs this afternoon will range from the 70s at the beaches to the low to mid 80s inland under a mix of sun and clouds. Cooler and much drier air will filter into the region behind the front.
So confidence with the exact details with this system are still on the lower side. Preciptiation is spreading across the area ahead of a low pressure system This trend will continue today before precip ends this evening from west to east.
Brief high pressure today will transition to southwesterly flow aloft. The trough associated with this moisture is forecast to arrive this evening. Model guidance shows the trough splitting with most of the energy quickly moving southward and out of the region. During the trough split tonight through Thursday morning, an enhanced area of snow is expected to develop in north- central Idaho resulting in 1-4 inches of new snow.
In the wake of the pacific front this morning, afternoon high temperatures will be knocked back 5-10 degrees compared to yesterday with most locations peaking in the lower 50s to lower 60s. As a weak cold front drops south through the forecast area this evening winds will quickly drop off behind it.
550 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2023 Increasing southwest winds will usher in warmer air and increasing chances for rain by tonight. As the warm front takes shape and pushes north today, rain will quickly develop from MO to NE by this morning and then expand quickly NE towards the region. As the low draws closer, increasing pressure gradient will result in winds picking up with rather breezy conditions late tonight into Thursday. A few of the models suggest better mixing overnight as the warm front passes overhead, but thinking inversion may keep worst gusts just above the ground. Temperatures will remain steady or slowly climb overnight as the warmer air arrives.
Hard freeze in colder valleys with a widespread freeze from Tucson into the lower deserts.
Drier conditions will build into southwest Wyoming and Utah Wednesday as high pressure slides in from the west.
Under the stratus we have seen reports of freezing drizzle to a freezing mist at times in the valley towards the west. Guidance struggles to pick up this freezing drizzle to mist and setting an end time. Areas that have freezing drizzle/mist could see minor impacts to travel due to slick conditions affecting the morning commute. On top of the flurries/freezing mist/freezing drizzle we have continued to see patchy fog in the Devils Lake Basin on and off this morning.
437 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Visibilities have worsened a touch across western and central North Dakota, outside of the northwest, and in Bismarck slippery surfaces have been reported within the light freezing mist. In the upper levels early this morning, ridging was over the Northern Plains, a weak closed low was circulating over eastern Montana, and a potent trough was ejecting out of the Four Corners region into the Central Plains. Precipitation from this trough is expected to remain south of North Dakota today. Ample low level moisture remains in place with the persistently diffuse surface pressure field, responsible for widespread stratus and nightly development of fog and freezing mist or drizzle in areas. Where visibilities are reduced, some slippery surfaces may develop from the freezing fog.
Lingering snow showers will continue through the morning with a few more inches of snow possible for the High Country.
259 AM PST Wed Jan 18 2023 Today will be dry and a little warmer with increasing high clouds. A low pressure system from the northwest will bring a slight chance of showers for Thursday afternoon and evening.
Included with this is the chance for light snow showers and light freezing mist/drizzle with some minor reductions in visibility possible at times. A weak cold front will move through Thursday afternoon bringing a slight decrease in temperatures in the near term before rebounding this weekend. Over the weekend, an upper low will push downstream of the region and an upper ridge pattern will set up over the Northern Rockies. This will lead to stronger northwest winds and a chinook pattern for NE Montana which should allow the low level moisture to mix out and temperatures to recover temporarily. -thor Updated: 1100Z FLIGHT CAT: MVFR to LIFR, improving to VFR this afternoon SYNOPSIS: Look for mainly MVFR to IFR stratus and occasional patchy freezing fog or freezing mist through this morning across NE MT area terminals.
High pressure has shifted off into the Atlantic and will continue to drift away over through Thursday. As it does a cold front will start to push through the southeast.
201 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 The primary concern through the remainder of the afternoon and evening will be freezing drizzle, mist, and patchy fog. Impacts to travel remain possible into the evening before the freezing drizzle tapers off. This is facilitating the development of the freezing drizzle we have seen through the day. Thursdays high temperatures will be slightly cooler, with highs generally in the teens, with low 20s in portions of west-central and northwestern Minnesota.
High pressure centered over the west Atlantic remains in control as ridge axis extends westward across the Florida peninsula. It will be even warmer today, as highs reach the mid to upper 70s.
Extended the mention of freezing drizzle through the day for eastern areas based on support from soundings. Don't think the freezing drizzle is having too much of an impact at this point, but will likely see a few slick spots on area roadways. At the surface, a low pressure system will be centered over southwest Kansas this morning, then will track northeastward to eastern Kansas/western Missouri by this evening, then to Illinois/Indiana by Thursday morning and to the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday evening. The precipitation will come to an end by late tonight as the system pulls away from the region and high pressure drops in from the north.
The higher end of that looks to occur at the highest elevations of the Wind River Mountains.
(Through Tonight) The region is between high pressure to the southeast, and a stalled frontal boundary to the north this afternoon. As the ridge from the high builds back toward the area Tonight, the frontal boundary will push further away to the north. Lows Tonight in the lower to middle 50s are expected.
(The rest of today ) The surface cold front is now east of Tulsa, quickly moving towards Arkansas. A band of precipitation trails the surface cold front over northeast OK, but should gradually weaken as it moves east the next couple of hours.
1033 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Extended the mention of freezing drizzle through the day for eastern areas based on support from soundings. Don't think the freezing drizzle is having too much of an impact at this point, but will likely see a few slick spots on area roadways. At the surface, a low pressure system will be centered over southwest Kansas this morning, then will track northeastward to eastern Kansas/western Missouri by this evening, then to Illinois/Indiana by Thursday morning and to the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday evening. The precipitation will come to an end by late tonight as the system pulls away from the region and high pressure drops in from the north.
sleet then freezing rain/drizzle for interior Lower MI including Big Rapids. This is the region that is most likely to see surface temperatures falling to near or just under freezing tonight. The approaching warm front and associated overrunning precipitation will be the main source for the precipitation. If surface temperatures stay below freezing during the afternoon and we still have drizzle persisting its possible that the headline may need to be extended in those region.
Temperatures are a fair bit cooler this afternoon compared to yesterday with many locations expected to only reaching the upper 50s and low 60s. Winds eventually become light after midnight for most locations as high pressure fills in. Tomorrow morning could be a bit chilly as morning temperatures hover near the freezing mark for many. Southerly winds keep tomorrow nights low temperatures a bit warmer with most locations remaining above the freezing mark.
200 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2023 A deep cyclone over the central plains will lift out through the western Great Lakes Thursday. Another round of showers will follow ahead of a cold front Thursday afternoon with a few thunderstorms possible over northwest Ohio. Substantial warm conveyor belt present in GOES vapor ewd of deepening plains cyclone will be curtailed some by increasing lower to mid MS valley convection but a decent rainfall for most sans far northeast tonight. Cigs around 2 kft due to moisture trapped under an inversion expected through about 03z when an approaching warm frontal band associated with a northeasterly moving midwest low pressure system transports additional moisture northward into the forecast area bringing rainfall and lowering cigs and vsbys in RA to IFR cat for both terminals.
1259 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2023 Wind will remain gusty over the higher elevations through this afternoon before diminishing as a narrow area of high pressure moves overhead this evening. Some freezing rain is likely at the onset north of I-80.
Temperatures across the Keys ranged from the lower to mid 70s with northeast to east winds between 5 to 10 mph. A ridge of high pressure centered over the western North Atlantic east of the Bahamas remains the dominant feature across the area. The Florida Keys will remain on the western periphery of this ridge resulting in east to southeast flow. From synopsis, breezes are expected to continue freshening through tonight as high pressure over the western North Atlantic strengthens over the region.
120 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2023 Increasing southwest winds will usher in warmer air and increasing chances for rain tonight. As the warm front takes shape and pushes north today, rain will quickly develop from MO to NE by this morning and then expand quickly NE towards the region. As the low draws closer, increasing pressure gradient will result in winds picking up with rather breezy conditions late tonight into Thursday. A few of the models suggest better mixing overnight as the warm front passes overhead, but thinking inversion may keep worst gusts just above the ground. Temperatures will remain steady or slowly climb overnight as the warmer air arrives.
(This evening through Thursday) This afternoon, a negatively-tilted upper trough was located over the central Plains and pushing quickly eastward. At the surface, a low pressure system, which started to occlude this morning was also pushing eastward and dragging a cold front through east Texas into the southeast US. By sunrise Thursday, a secondary cold front will push southward into Texas from the central Plains, allowing low temperatures to fall into the the mid 30s. During the day on Thursday, high pressure will fill in across west Texas. High temperatures will therefore only reach the upper 50s across the Big Country and the low 60s further south.
A line of showers accompanying a cold front will push through the state on Thursday.
1259 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2023 Quiet weather pattern for the next 36 hours as ridging builds in aloft and downslope winds increase. As the upper trof that has been over the area the past few days slowly shifts eastward will see the stratus move east as well. By late afternoon should see increasing snow shower activity over area mountains, but downslope winds and weak energy over the area should prevent precipitation from making it to the ground in the lower elevations as the disturbances passes through Thursday night.
Dry slot and more sleet or freezing rain (that occurred earlier) than snow will cut into the snow amounts along and south of Interstate 80.
(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Noticeably cooler temps tomorrow with breezy winds continuing through much of the day before diminishing by sunset.
Tonight, a potent low pressure system moves into the area and with it, warm and moist advection and plenty of forcing.
A cold front will slide south and east on the backside of the deepening upper closed low currently moving northeast across Kansas, while H50 heights begin to gradually increase across our area. Direct impacts from the cold front will be minimal, especially on the Caprock, providing a glancing blow across our northern zones and the Rolling Plains. High temperatures on the Caprock tomorrow will be similar to today, with 5-10 degree cooler highs tomorrow over the Rolling Plains. A sharp increase in mid to high level clouds tomorrow afternoon will add to the cooler temperatures along with the post frontal airmass.
However, from Cullman county, AL into northeastern Alabama, expect highs to only reach the lower to mid 60s.
Late tonight into Thursday, sustained southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph are expected across the highest peaks of the east TN mountains with wind gusts from 40 to 55 mph, isolated gusts up to 65 mph. Ahead of the front the low level jet will increase to 50+ knots. A line of showers associated with the aforementioned cold front will exit the Plateau around 12z tomorrow morning and move swiftly across the Tennessee valley.
Low-level jet will increase to around 40 to 50 knots across the ArkLaTex today in response to the deepening cyclone to the north. Conditions to improve overnight as high pressure rebuilds behind the front. Much cooler temperatures to filter into the ArkLaTex with overnight lows ranging from the mid 30s across southeast Oklahoma to the upper 40s across north Louisiana. Highs on Thursday will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s. This is due to southwesterly flow aloft that allows a series of disturbances to shift across the lower Great Plains. Temperatures will remain near normal for the rest of the week into the weekend with maximums in the lower 60s/upper 50s and minimums in the mid-40/lower 30s.
(This evening through Thursday night) Cold front will continue to sweep across the southern Texas Panhandle late this afternoon. Upper low over Kansas will continue to pull away from the region and then a short wave ridge will move across the Panhandles Thursday.
(This afternoon through Thursday Night) A warm front had lifted through Middle Tennessee and afternoon temps had warmed into the 60s across the area. This wx is associated with a strong low pressure system that will move across the Mid Ms Valley to the Great Lakes through the next 24 hours. Colder air will come in Thursday night with lows mostly in the lower 30s.
Hard freeze in colder valleys with a widespread freeze from Tucson into the lower deserts tonight and Thursday night.
1005 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Freezing drizzle still being reported at several sites across the area this morning. Still getting reports of patchy light freezing drizzle this morning in eastern ND and NW portions of MN. We will continue to monitor the light freezing drizzle this morning. Under the stratus we have seen reports of freezing drizzle to a freezing mist at times in the valley towards the west. Guidance struggles to pick up this freezing drizzle to mist and setting an end time. Areas that have freezing drizzle/mist could see minor impacts to travel due to slick conditions affecting the morning commute. On top of the flurries/freezing mist/freezing drizzle we have continued to see patchy fog in the Devils Lake Basin on and off this morning.
(Tonight through Thursday night) A weak cold front is pushing through the CWA this afternoon. Low temperatures will cool into the 50s, 10 degrees cooler than last night but still above average for this time of year. High pressure will spread over the area and shift east on Thursday under mild ridging and southwest flow aloft. A weak coastal trough will start to develop Thursday night, reflecting the returning warm front, and will bring moisture back to coastal areas, but rain chances will nonetheless remain puny through the short term. Thursday's high temps will be in the 70s and Thursday night low temps will include some lower 60s for the Lower Valley in addition to the 50s for the rest of the CWA.
1130 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Freezing drizzle still being reported at several sites across the area this morning. Still getting reports of patchy light freezing drizzle this morning in eastern ND and NW portions of MN. We will continue to monitor the light freezing drizzle this morning. Under the stratus we have seen reports of freezing drizzle to a freezing mist at times in the valley towards the west. Guidance struggles to pick up this freezing drizzle to mist and setting an end time. Areas that have freezing drizzle/mist could see minor impacts to travel due to slick conditions affecting the morning commute. On top of the flurries/freezing mist/freezing drizzle we have continued to see patchy fog in the Devils Lake Basin on and off this morning.
(This evening through Thursday) A deepening mid-level trough will continue to move towards the Midwest this evening. At the surface, a center of low pressure will follow in the wake of the aforementioned trough. Cooler air behind the front will bring temperatures to near average this evening and again tomorrow.
940 AM MST Wed Jan 18 2023 An upper Low is currently moving into the Pacific Northwest this morning, and will spread snow across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho this evening through Thursday morning.
1135 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 (The rest of today ) The surface cold front is now east of Tulsa, quickly moving towards Arkansas. A band of precipitation trails the surface cold front over northeast OK, but should gradually weaken as it moves east the next couple of hours.
245 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Forecast highlights/challenges will continue to be lingering fog and the potential for freezing drizzle/mist through the period. For tonight, mid level low will move east-northeast across far southern Saskatchewan, with a larger upper low over the upper Midwest centered over Iowa by 12Z Thursday. Will also need to monitor for the potential for light freezing drizzle developing again, thinking more across the east underneath upper level stretching, though any sort of lift could squeeze out the abundant moisture.
842 AM PST Wed Jan 18 2023 Increasing high clouds today with high temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
1157 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 A warm front is draped over the Mid South and will surge northward as a cold front approaches the forecast area this afternoon and evening.
As the low pressure system continues to move eastward across the region and into the Central Plains, expect snowfall to taper off from west to east. A weak and short lived ridge of high pressure will move over the region tonight and tomorrow, leading to clearing skies. Flow will turn southwesterly once again on Thursday afternoon, signaling the approach of yet another trough.
This clearing will not last long, however, as upper level clouds associated with a Pacific cold front are beginning to make an appearance for areas close to the Divide this afternoon. Tomorrow will be a slightly more active weather day as a piece of the Pacific cold front attempts to cross the Continental Divide tomorrow, brining cloudy skies, along with a few mountain snow showers to the region. Behind this system, upper level ridging will try to make its way into the region, which will bring a return to dry but cloudy conditions, along with some gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front.
*Highs mainly in the lower 30s the next several days. Moist cold conveyor is starting to wrap back to the west and southwest to the north of the low center. but highs in the lower 30s are expected most every day.