Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
325 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Isolated showers will end this morning as a trough of low pressure exits the region. High pressure will then return dry weather to the area through Thursday, before a cold front brings more showers Thursday night. Building high pressure should then return dry weather and a warming trend through the weekend. These should end as the trough axis shifts east of the area. Dry weather is expected tonight through Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds across the region. A deepening trough, and its associated cold front, are expected to track southeastward from the northern Plains Wednesday, reaching the Upper Ohio Valley region late Thursday.
At the surface, warm southerly flow will be in place this morning before a cold front slides across the area during the late morning and afternoon hours. High pressure moves in behind the front and will be the dominant feature over the area tonight and Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s. Thursday afternoon a strong ridge starts to build into the region. This ridge stays around for the whole period.
Overnight lows will be below seasonal normals, ranging from the lower 60s near the Red River to the lower 70s around the Metroplex. Although afternoon temperatures will be warmer than today, it will remain relatively dry and still tolerable compared to the rest of the week. Low level warm air advection will gradually increase Wednesday night while upper level high pressure builds in from the Central and Southern Rockies. Temperatures Wednesday night will be closer to seasonal normals with lows in the lower and middle 70s. Overnight lows will also increase to the low to mid 80s across the Metroplex. This is all thanks to the upper-level ridge that will redevelop across our area in full force after taking a short vacation.
925 mb temperatures between 19 and 23 degrees in most guidance hints at highs getting closer to the lower to mid 80s.
330 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 High pressure through Thursday.
Highs will be in the low 80s, with mostly sunny skies. Clouds increase tonight, with showers and thunderstorms moving into the area late this evening with a cold front. Winds will shift to the northwest early Thursday, with a cooler airmass building into the region. Rain will push east Thursday morning, but some additional showers will be possible Thursday afternoon as the core of the upper level trough swings through the area. Expect highs on Thursday to be in the low to mid 70s.
Where skies have cleared out, temperatures were in the lower 60s while under the clouds, temperatures were in the mid 60s. In the short term, we should continue to see this low stratus mix out through sunrise. Overnight lows will likely bottom out in the upper 50s to the lower 60s in most locations. For tonight, high pressure will remain in control of our weather with mostly clear skies.
Did also tweak the low PoPs and sprinkle chances. This is in association with a passing upper disturbance and surface cold front which are producing a few sprinkles from time to time this evening mainly along and north of Interstate 64. Drying at all levels moved over the region today behind the cold front which moved through last night. However, the system's mid/upper level supporting trough axis was still to our north and northwest this afternoon, with a deeper moisture pool beneath it. As the trough approaches and moves over our area tonight, our low-mid level lapse rates will steepen. With the mid/upper level trough passed by on Wednesday, less in the way of diurnal cu is forecast for the afternoon, followed by mostly clear skies Wednesday night.
(Today through Thursday) With high pressure building, look a cooler start to the day. With a cooler/drier airmass over the area, look for sunshine with temperatures in the 80s north to low 90s south. A few locally cooler spots may even see the upper 50s. Another dry day on Thursday, with highs a few degrees warmer.
356 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 A cold front will stall over the area through mid week bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures. A cold front should progress into SE NC and NE SC early this AM before stalling out as heating commences after daybreak. Low temperatures should fall back mainly into the lower to mid 70s.
241 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Upper level high to remain over the region through tonight. There will be a slight increase in moisture, which should help produce some showers and storms over and near the higher terrain.
1231 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 A quiet, dry & cooler evening is on tap across the region. 00Z synoptic analysis indicate center of the cold core is moving into the Great Lakes, while troughing/northwest flow is bringing dry & subsident airmass into the region. Due to that, a quiet evening is anticipated with dewpoints falling into the low 60s & cooler lows, generally around 5-8 degrees below normal in the low 60s north to upper 60s south. /DC/ Tonight and Tomorrow: Rain chances decrease through the evening into tonight as the cold front moves out of the area. Generally light northerly winds will allow cooler and drier air to filter in overnight. On Wednesday, high pressure builds into the area with post frontal dry air in place.
916 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Upper ridging continues to keep the CWA mostly cloud free this evening. The upper level ridge is expected isn't expected to move much over the next 24 hours. Key messages: 1) Heat is here to stay for several days 2) Monsoon plume stays shifted mostly to our west 3) Storm chances mostly confined to the mountains A dominating ridge of high pressure will be the driving force in the weather for the next several days to come.
1145 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 High pressure will bring quiet and mild weather to central IL through Wednesday.
259 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023 An upper air ridge over the western US will continue to dominate our weather through Thursday with dry and hot conditions. The low-level winds combined with warmer air aloft moving over the area from the ridge will cause an increase in high temperatures on Thursday.
255 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 A wave of low pressure will cross through Virginia tonight, otherwise high pressure and dry weather is expected for the region today through Thursday.
1111 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A deep storm system for mid August was over the lower Great Lakes early this evening.
132 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 High pressure through Thursday.
1221 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) Model agreement continues to see the 500mb high pressure center strengthen and expand over the course of the day.
1019 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A NW-to-SE oriented ridge. will gradually expand eastward over adjacent portions of the High Plains. characterized by pronounced ridging over the central CONUS and troughing along the Pacific and Atlantic coasts.
From the synopsis, a weak low pressure trough will continue to move west of the Keys waters t!**NAME/INITIALS**!his afternoon, bringing increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms at times. High pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and a ridge extending westward to the Florida peninsula will persist through the remainder of the work week, with gentle mainly east to southeast breezes prevailing across the Florida Keys coastal waters. High pressure will strengthen over the eastern United States this weekend, bringing freshening easterly breezes into the Keys waters.
851 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Isolated showers will end this morning as a trough of low pressure exits the region. High pressure will then return dry weather to the area through Thursday, before a cold front brings more showers Thursday night. Building high pressure should then return dry weather and a warming trend through the weekend. These should end as the trough axis shifts east of the area. Dry weather is expected tonight through Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds across the region. A deepening trough, and its associated cold front, are expected to track southeastward from the northern Plains Wednesday, reaching the Upper Ohio Valley region late Thursday.
610 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Following the slightly cooler airmass we saw the last couple days temperatures will be on the way back up. Upper ridging centered to our northwest will remain in control of our weather. Highs will return to the 100s for most this afternoon with low to mid 90s into the higher terrain. Isolated storms are once again possible for the higher terrain and portions of southeast New Mexico.
Similar hot temperatures repeat today across the Valley before slowly trending cooler into the weekend. The upper level low continues to circulate off the West Coast, moving slightly northwestward this morning before moving back southward towards the Southern California coast and deepening. The upper level ridge in the Pacific Northwest will weaken today and finally allow for some cooling across the Valley after today. The Heat Advisory continues to be in effect for the Valley and portions of the lower foothills (mainly for elevations below 2000 feet) and will be in effect through 11 pm Thursday.
610 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 (Today through Thursday) With high pressure building, look a cooler start to the day. With a cooler/drier airmass over the area, look for sunshine with temperatures in the 80s north to low 90s south. A few locally cooler spots may even see the upper 50s. Another dry day on Thursday, with highs a few degrees warmer.
A weak northeast to southwest oriented cold front is stalled across the area this morning.
642 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 A wave of low pressure will cross through Virginia tonight, otherwise high pressure and dry weather is expected for the region today through Thursday.
641 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Today through tonight: An upper level trough is helping to maintain a more comfortable, less humid airmass over the forecast area in the near term. /EC/ Thursday through this weekend: Temperatures will start to rise once again as the more comfortable airmass (which gave us some well needed relief from the heat) will start to get replaced by a strengthening ridge located across the southern Great Plains. The ridge will gradually make its way eastward throughout the weekend, keeping us mainly dry and hot.
404 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: A cold front is currently making its way across the region which will bring highs this afternoon back down to normal.
939 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 An airmass consisting of much cooler and drier air moved into the region overnight resulting in a breath of fresh air for all of us.
602 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 (Today and tonight) The return to hotter temperatures begins today, as southerly surface winds resume and the 850mb thermal ridge strengthens. Temperatures tonight will be warmer than the previous night, with clear skies and southeast to south winds.
1031 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 High pressure through Thursday.
This morning the cold front will be moving through from the northwest.
1040 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 A wave of low pressure will cross through Virginia Wednesday night, otherwise high pressure and mainly dry weather is expected for the region through Thursday.
420 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Today through tonight: An upper level trough is helping to maintain a more comfortable, less humid airmass over the forecast area in the near term. /EC/ Thursday through this weekend: Temperatures will start to rise once again as the more comfortable airmass (which gave us some well needed relief from the heat) will start to get replaced by a strengthening ridge located across the southern Great Plains. The ridge will gradually make its way eastward throughout the weekend, keeping us mainly dry and hot.
(Now through Thursday) A much drier airmass will continue to filter into the region today as an upper level trough moves across the area. Dewpoints will fall into the low to mid 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. High temps will also be cooler today with upper 80s and low 90s. A large upper ridge begins to build eastward from the southern plains into the southeast on Thursday with temps warming back into the mid 90s.
1015 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 High pressure will build overhead today before moving offshore tonight into Thursday.
526 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Upper level high to remain over the region through tonight. There will be a slight increase in moisture, which should help produce some showers and storms over and near the higher terrain.
531 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Isolated showers will end this morning as a trough of low pressure exits the region. High pressure will then return dry weather to the area through Thursday, before a cold front brings more showers Thursday night. Building high pressure should then return dry weather and a warming trend through the weekend. These should end as the trough axis shifts east of the area. Dry weather is expected tonight through Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds across the region. A deepening trough, and its associated cold front, are expected to track southeastward from the northern Plains Wednesday, reaching the Upper Ohio Valley region late Thursday.
541 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 High pressure through Thursday.
1029 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 A cold front will linger across the area through Thursday, then move offshore as high pressure builds in from the west.
High pressure over much of the intermountain west will see temperatures climbing to around 5 to 8 degrees above average today and Thursday. One caveat with this; the ridge is going to start to shift back east of the area. If the high center shifts back eastward quickly enough, we could see a classic rim- shot with the convective environment supporting strong and organized outflow from the Mogollon Rim and southern White Mountains pushing southeast and east through lower elevations early Thursday evening.
644 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 (Today and tonight) The cooler weather has made its grand exit after a brief appearance over the weekend. The upper level ridge we have all grown to dislike will begin to rebuild over the western CONUS today with increased thickness values noted over the region. 850 mb temperatures ranging from 28C to 34C indicate highs today in the low triple digits for most of the CWA, a model blend of CONSMOS and the previous forecast was used to increase temperatures over the NBM. No precipitation is expected over the short term as monsoonal moisture remains to our west with the rebuilding ridge.
452 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 This morning the cold front will be moving through from the northwest.
1244 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Isolated showers will diminish as a trough of low pressure exits the region. High pressure will then return dry weather to the area through Thursday, before a cold front brings more showers Thursday night. Building high pressure should then return dry weather and a warming trend through the weekend. Dry weather is expected tonight through Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds across the region. A deepening trough, and its associated cold front, are expected to track southeastward from the northern Plains Wednesday, reaching the Upper Ohio Valley region late Thursday.
141 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 A cold front will stall over the area through mid week bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures. A cold front should progress into SE NC and NE SC early this AM before stalling out as heating commences after daybreak. Low temperatures should fall back mainly into the lower to mid 70s.
335 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 There is a trough over the East Coast into the southeast CONUS. A short wave trough is situated from Manitoba/Ontario into the Central Plains with a ridge just behind it. Clear skies prevailed across Kansas with temperatures from the lower 80s in the southeast corner to the mid 90s in the northwest corner.
1027 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Will continue to watch the progression of the cold front as it tracks southeast across the region through the day, with winds gradually switching to the north/northwest. At the surface, warm southerly flow will be in place this morning before a cold front slides across the area during the late morning and afternoon hours. High pressure moves in behind the front and will be the dominant feature over the area tonight and Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s. Thursday afternoon a strong ridge starts to build into the region. This ridge stays around for the whole period.
Turning cooler tonight into Thursday, then temperatures rebound for the end of the week with much above normal temperatures expected. Current surface analysis is indicating a cold front sweeping through central SD this afternoon. With the cold air advection, it will be a cooler night with dew points falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Thursday night looks to be another coolish night with lows in the lower 50s to near 60. Winds will increase west of Interstate 29 later in the night in response to an increasing SPF as the high pressure slides to the east.
106 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023 A weak northeast to southwest oriented cold front is stalled across the area this morning.
However, that instability will be on the relatively modest side with progged MLCAPE values generally in a range of 750- 1250 J/kg and with the cape profile beginning to look pretty narrow, in part due to some expected warming in the 700-500 mb layer as the mid/upper pattern begins to shift eastward and the trough that has been overhead begins to replaced by ridging.
114 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 High pressure will build in Sunday into Monday.
(Today and tonight) The axis of an upper level trough will be centered over the region by this afternoon coupled with broad cyclonic flow and associated differential cyclonic vorticity advection across the area will provide some forcing for ascent during the afternoon and evening hours once daytime heating has reached its peak.
Monday, guidance is showing some weak ridging trying to form aloft near/over the area which would keep the flow weak and slightly lower chances for storms. Storm chances look to be more limited to Eastern Colorado where there could be development off the higher terrain and more saturation. The upper level pattern starts off somewhat disorganized over the Great Plains, but as the week goes on, a low pressure system from the Four Corners begins to push in and create southeasterly flow. The LLJ seems to remain fairly weak through the period, but the lower level flow generally remains southerly, helping keep temperatures near normal; upper 70s and mid 80s for highs and lows in the 50s.
By midweek, a backdoor cold front will result in slightly cooler temperatures.
351 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 High pressure will persist into Monday.
331 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 While winds at the surface are calm during the overnight hours, daytime winds will remain northeasterly as a strong upper ridge is located over the middle of the country, stretching well into Canada. High pressure is located well to the northwest while an upper low is located just offshore of New England. The highest chances are in Southeast Missouri, but only peak at 30%.
Forecast models continue to prog a large upper-level high pressure anchored over the northern Great Plains, which will continue to keep east to northeasterly winds today and tonight.
There is a high chance of readings in the mid 90's today in the warmest locations, courtesy of a ridge of high pressure. There is a low chance that another slow moving storm with heavy rain could develop somewhere in the higher elevations of the Sierra and cause a threat of flash flooding. A cooling trend begins Monday as a closed upper-level low pressure system approaches Southern California from the Eastern Pacific. Chances for afternoon/evening showers and isolated t'storms spread to the lower elevation locations and the Kern County mountains on Monday and for the next day or two.
1138 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 The forecast area is currently sitting in between two weak low pressure systems. Terrain driven storms have already developed over the higher elevations and are drifting to the southeast. Conditions tonight will be similar to last night but a little warmer. The remainder of the CWA will see scattered convection over the higher terrain much like today. A stubborn ridge of high pressure forming an omega block over the Central U. This should produce a pattern like we've seen the past week or so with daily showers and thunderstorms possible along the high terrain, with some spilling into adjacent valleys.
1236 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 (Tonight) High pressure at the surface promoting clear, calm, and dry conditions late this evening. This will be a good setup for radiational cooling in this drier air mass as low temperatures will bottom out in the lower 60s in most locations.
Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s to lower 90s as of 19z, and expect high temperatures later this afternoon to top out in the lower to middle 90s across the forecast area. Dew point temperatures remain in the lower to middle 50s, and as a result apparent temperature values are actually a few degrees cooler than the air temperatures. Shower activity will diminish after sunset Sunday evening, with low temperatures dipping into the lower to middle 60s. The PAH forecast area will be sandwiched between strong ridging across the Intermountain West and Great Plains and a deep trough across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.
234 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Center of an upper level high pressure area will continue to drift towards the CWA. While we would expect an upper high to suppress convection, there is a weak inverted trough pinwheeling around the underbelly of the high.
Hot afternoon temps are fcst w/ readings topping out in the low to mid 90s at most locations Sun and Mon.
1145 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures ranging from around 70 degrees to the lower 80s. Hot and mostly dry conditions will be the story this weekend with temperatures in the low 90s. The work week will start out warm with highs in the lower 90s and a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A couple of back door cold fronts will drop temperatures back to normal later in the week.
319 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 With cooler northerly flow, temperatures will be cooler this week compared to last week.
Some of this smoke will be evident at ground-level at times today with the expectation that diurnal mixing should bring some of the higher quantities of smoke aloft down to the surface this afternoon in areas not influenced by the stabilizing effects of the inland- advecting marine layer. Have today's highs in the low to mid 80s across most of the CWA with the lone exception being areas near the lakeshore, where the persistent onshore flow should keep highs capped in the 70s.
Warming temperatures are expected through Monday with isolated afternoon showers mainly in the higher terrain of the Southern Great Basin. For today, the low itself will remain west of the region but increasing PWATs and upper level diffluence should be enough for scattered precipitation to develop in northern Inyo County through the Southern Great Basin and northern Mohave (though precipitation develop should favor the terrain much like we saw last week). On Monday, the low is expected to shift into southern Nevada. Drier air is expected to wrap itself around the low and advect into the region as the low moves inland, so precipitation chances are expected to be lower and less widespread than today. Today's high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
1100 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 A weak cold front will arrive from the northeast tonight to bring both a 20 percent chance of a light shower, along with cooler temperatures for Sunday.