Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL 1222 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2023 Surface analysis highlights a ridge of high pressure that has been parked over the Southeast United States continuing to slide in the Western Atlantic, with this feature now centered just west of Bermuda. This will be monitored, but in the meantime, near-nil rain chances and highs in the lower 80s look to be all but a slam dunk for today for the Florida Keys. As high pressure moves east into the western North Atlantic, winds will veer to the east to southeast on Thursday.
High pressure under an upper level ridge will keep conditions calm for the day. Temperatures will be a little warmer than yesterday. Coastal areas should be in the mid 50s, while inland western valleys will be in the low to mid 50s. The east side will be cooler, with temperatures ranging from the high 30s to mid 40s.
1131 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 (Today and tonight) Showers and a few storms expanded in coverage across West Central Texas since midnight, as lift from the upper low over New Mexico approaches.
1220 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2023 (18Z TAFS) VFR conditions prevail through the period with high pressure remaining in control and ESE winds.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, nearing 50 degrees in the Treasure Valley and Snake River Plain.
1011 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2023 High pressure moving offshore will bring warm temperatures through Thursday.
A stout upper ridge of high pressure centered over the Bahamas continues to be the primary synoptic feature of interest in the short term forecast period. This feature is nearly vertically stacked, with broad and expansive ridging expanding westward over the Florida keys. The aforementioned upper ridge transitions slightly eastward, allowing for a slight relaxation in surface pressure gradient. Temperatures remain seasonably warm in nature, as maximum temperatures in the lower 80s will be observed this afternoon and across the Florida Keys through today and Thursday. Overnight low temperatures will remain in the low 70s. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes will prevail across the Florida Keys coastal waters through tonight, as a ridge of high pressure moves east into the western (North) Atlantic waters.
138 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2023 The radar is quiet this morning with Upper Michigan under ridging. Meanwhile, a low pressure over the Southern Plains this evening lifts to near Chicago by Thursday morning before continuing through northern Lower MI Thursday. As this low moves through northern Lower MI Thursday, expect a secondary Clipper low to phase with it.
The low will drag a cold front through the CWA during tomorrow and tomorrow night. However, isolated wind gusts to 40mph to 45mph will be possible at the highest elevations across northern GA (above 2000 feet). Even though severe weather is not anticipated, some of the stronger showers could also mix down some of the higher winds.
Our H500 trough continues to dig through West Texas this afternoon. Through the lower levels, the further south, a decent warm nose remains in place, with surface temps just above freezing.
By the late evening hours, shower and thunderstorm activity will approach the Tennessee River as an upper low kicks out of north Texas into the mid-Mississippi River valley. As this low deepens and the surface pressure gradient tightens during the overnight hours, winds will pick up and become very gusty with a sustained period of 20-30 mph winds and gusts to 45 mph.
An upper level trough / 400 mb PV anomaly moving through north Texas this afternoon will swing into Missouri overnight. Best case scenarios only produce a couple of hundredths of an inch with any showers over the southeast counties line Pratt and Comanche â and very much likely in the rain phase as temps will not drop fast enough (50 degrees now at DDC) and were much warmer than the cold NAM was showing this morning. Given the latest model runs and especially the momentum transfer model soundings from the IEM/ BUFKT meteogram generator and collaboration with neighboring offices, weâve canceled the High Wind Watch.
(Rest of today through Thursday) Current surface analysis places a strong area of high pressure situated in the vicinity of Bermuda. High pressure will continue to slowly slide eastward into the central Atlantic through Thursday.
(This evening through Thursday) Water vapor imagery shows the upper level low responsible for the rain showers this morning continuing to push to the east along with drier air overtaking the region. Surface temperatures above freezing will also cause any surviving snowflakes to melt immediately. Cold air advection driven by breezy northerly winds will keep temperatures cold with highs ranging from the low 40s in the SW TX Panhandle to the mid 50s in the southern Rolling Plains.
1252 PM MST Wed Feb 8 2023 A ridge of high pressure will amplify across the western US tonight into Thursday.
Aloft, the upper level low that brought our showers and thunderstorms over the last 24 hours or so will quickly move off to the northeast, making it into the Great Lakes region by Thursday afternoon. The next upper level trough will quickly follow, moving southeast out of the Rockies and into the central plains by Thursday afternoon. A dry cold front will move The timing of the front will result in cooler highs for the Big Country as opposed to the Concho Valley and I-10 corridor. Highs will likely be in the low/mid 50s along and north of I-10, and mainly in the mid 60s south of a Sterling City to Brownwood line.
235 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 Water vapor imagery currently shows a compact upper low lifting across northern TX with a dry slot nosing into south central/se KS. However, as the lowest couple thousand feet cool due to wet bulb processes, should start to see some flakes start to mix-in. By Fri afternoon, sharp upper trough will be pushing east of the area with upper ridging building-in over the Rockies. Both the ECMWF and GFS agree fairly well in tracking a closed upper low into Southern CA by Sun morning and into the Desert Southwest by Mon morning. The ECMWF is much more progressive compared to the GFS which results in the GFS generating some precip during the day Mon, with the ECMWF keeping things dry until Mon evening, when the main southern stream upper low starts to impact southern KS.
Light freezing rain is not entirely out of the question in the James River Valley, although it looks to be on the lower end of probability.
Winds tick up again this weekend as another system moves by, possibly bringing some light precipitation to the high terrain. With a fairly amplified ridge building in behind it, a stout N-S pressure gradient develops over the eastern Great Basin, inducing gusty north winds across the eastern CWA.
Surface analysis highlights a ridge of high pressure that has been parked over the Southeast United States continuing to slide in the Western Atlantic, with this feature now centered just west of Bermuda. This will be monitored, but in the meantime, near-nil rain chances and highs in the lower 80s look to be all but a slam dunk for today for the Florida Keys. As high pressure moves east into the western North Atlantic, winds will veer to the east to southeast on Thursday.
1251 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2023 High pressure will build from north of the region to the northeast Today.
Today's weather is once again dominated by high pressure.
The computer models all forecast a negatively tilted 500mb trough to lift rapidly northeast from Tulsa at midnight to Milwaukee around midday Thursday and Lake Huron by Thursday evening. 850mb temperatures are initially above freezing, but should drop due to evaporative cooling once precipitation begins, and cool even more due to strong vertical motion during the midday hours.
(Tonight) Active weather this evening and overnight as a deepening area of low pressure is shifting from the Red River Valley of OK/TX into the mid-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. This will drag a cold front into the Tennessee Valley overnight and into the early morning hours on Thursday. To our southwest a secondary warm front was noted, with most of the surface-based instability located across central/south Mississippi and Louisiana. The aforementioned LLJ will help to force numerous to widespread showers (50-80%) by late this evening, and after Midnight much more widespread (100%) along and ahead of the approaching cold front.
Have a fantastic evening! (Rest of today through Thursday) Current surface analysis places a strong area of high pressure situated in the vicinity of Bermuda. High pressure will continue to slowly slide eastward into the central Atlantic through Thursday.
214 PM MST Wed Feb 8 2023 The short wave trough over northwestern WY early this afternoon, will continue to drop southward into CO by this evening. There will be a period of weak-moderate QG ascent will will pass across the region at that time A cold front, coupled with low level instability will produce a favorable environment for snow squalls mainly in the mountain areas this evening. The models still show some potential for snow showers across the plains, likely around or shortly after the passage of the cold front. Light snow ongoing in the mountains at least through the morning, but confined to the higher northwest facing slopes.
542 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 Water vapor imagery currently shows a compact upper low lifting across northern TX with a dry slot nosing into south central/se KS. However, as the lowest couple thousand feet cool due to wet bulb processes, should start to see some flakes start to mix-in. By Fri afternoon, sharp upper trough will be pushing east of the area with upper ridging building-in over the Rockies. Both the ECMWF and GFS agree fairly well in tracking a closed upper low into Southern CA by Sun morning and into the Desert Southwest by Mon morning. The ECMWF is much more progressive compared to the GFS which results in the GFS generating some precip during the day Mon, with the ECMWF keeping things dry until Mon evening, when the main southern stream upper low starts to impact southern KS.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Evening/ The upper low responsible for our recent rain can be seen on satellite spiraling between Bowie and Wichita Falls. It will be accompanied by a strong cold front, which will push south through the area Thursday afternoon and evening.
Although snow amounts will be on the low end for an adv there, winds gusting to 50 mph will support areas of blowing and drifting snow, creating hazardous travel. Upper level trough and attendant front moves through late tonight into early Thursday. In terms of precip - after this afternoon's round moves out there will be a brief break in precip until the upper trough moves through. Total accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts in the higher elevations is likely in the northern Black Hills.
542 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Water vapor imagery shows the upper level low responsible for the rain showers this morning continuing to push to the east along with drier air overtaking the region. Surface temperatures above freezing will also cause any surviving snowflakes to melt immediately. Cold air advection driven by breezy northerly winds will keep temperatures cold with highs ranging from the low 40s in the SW TX Panhandle to the mid 50s in the southern Rolling Plains.
307 PM MST Wed Feb 8 2023 Cold front continues to race southward across the state today. High pressure dominates the rest of the week and into the weekend, with slowly moderating temperatures and lighter winds.
Gusty winds depart northeastern Nevada this evening as high pressure continues to build into the region bringing fair weather for the CWA in the short term. This weekend will see slight chances for snow to return with an approaching trof from the northwest.
Cooler temps will filter into the area with overnight lows 10 to 20 degrees cooler than this morning depending on ones location. High pressure builds over the area Thu and Fri allowing for dry and mainly seasonal temperatures.
Upper level trough and attendant front moves through late tonight into early Thursday. In terms of precip - after this afternoon's round moves out there will be a brief break in precip until the upper trough moves through. Total accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts in the higher elevations is likely in the northern Black Hills.
611 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 (Tonight) Active weather this evening and overnight as a deepening area of low pressure is shifting from the Red River Valley of OK/TX into the mid-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. This will drag a cold front into the Tennessee Valley overnight and into the early morning hours on Thursday. To our southwest a secondary warm front was noted, with most of the surface-based instability located across central/south Mississippi and Louisiana. The aforementioned LLJ will help to force numerous to widespread showers (50-80%) by late this evening, and after Midnight much more widespread (100%) along and ahead of the approaching cold front.
There is a Winter Weather Advisory for the northern mountains and the Flat Tops in Colorado until 5AM tomorrow with four to eight inches snow possible in the higher elevations overnight. There is even a chance to see a few flurries in the lower valleys through the evening hours.
A weak upper level ridge will bring mostly dry conditions for much of Western Washington into Thursday. A warm front will bring some light precipitation to the Olympic Peninsula tonight into early Thursday.
400 PM MST Wed Feb 8 2023 Cold front continues to race southward across the state today. High pressure dominates the rest of the week and into the weekend, with slowly moderating temperatures and lighter winds.
Tornado Watch 31 has been trimmed back to remove Sabine County and Sabine Parish as the cold front continues to march eastward early this evening, now east of the I-49 corridor into north central LA and south central AR. Cooler 50s are spreading over all of E TX with Center and Carthage hanging on to warm temps for another hour. The cold front will be another day behind with Northwesterly winds. We will back from W this evening to SW for another nice day tomorrow ahead of the cold front.
Afternoon water vapor imagery depicts a closed upper low pivoting across the northern Texas Hill Country, with a mid-level dry slot nosing into central Oklahoma. As the upper low shifts overhead this evening, the column may cool sufficiently for snow to mix with rain across south-central into northern Oklahoma. The combination of warm (above-freezing) antecedent surface temperatures, along with wet-bulb temperatures staying at or above 32 degrees during periods of precipitation, continues to point towards overall low sensible impact. A robust cold front is expected to slide southeastward across all zones from morning through the early afternoon. While surface temperatures are expected to remain above the freeze point, the passage of a cold upper low overhead may once again allow wintry precipitation types to mix with rain.
Went ahead and moved the higher pops up an hour or so. Of additional note, there is some appreciable helicity in the lowest 1KM that will need to be watched. By the late evening hours, shower and thunderstorm activity will approach the Tennessee River as an upper low kicks out of north Texas into the mid-Mississippi River valley. As this low deepens and the surface pressure gradient tightens during the overnight hours, winds will pick up and become very gusty with a sustained period of 20-30 mph winds and gusts to 45 mph.
719 PM MST Wed Feb 8 2023 Winds have begun to diminish, therefore the High Wind Warning has been cancelled. TFJ Gusty winds continue across the CWA as a cold front approaches the area this afternoon. Upper ridging will build over the western U.
435 PM MST Wed Feb 8 2023 The short wave trough over northwestern WY early this afternoon, will continue to drop southward into CO by this evening. There will be a period of weak-moderate QG ascent will will pass across the region at that time A cold front, coupled with low level instability will produce a favorable environment for snow squalls mainly in the mountain areas this evening. The models still show some potential for snow showers across the plains, likely around or shortly after the passage of the cold front. Light snow ongoing in the mountains at least through the morning, but confined to the higher northwest facing slopes.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region giving way to more dry weather and warmer temperatures.
244 PM MST Wed Feb 8 2023 Gusty winds continue across the CWA as a cold front approaches the area this afternoon. Upper ridging will build over the western U.
A weak upper level ridge will bring mostly dry conditions for much of Western Washington into Thursday. A warm front will bring some light precipitation to the Olympic tonight into early Thursday.
Cooler 50s are spreading over all of E TX with Center and Carthage hanging on to warm temps for another hour. The cold front will be another day behind with Northwesterly winds. We will back from W this evening to SW for another nice day tomorrow ahead of the cold front.
212 PM MST Wed Feb 8 2023 Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low over the Southern Plains with another trough over the Northern Rockies. A large area of cloud cover from the resulting water vapor was seen ahead of the closed low. At the surface a cold front was moving east-southeast out of Wyoming. Tonight the cold front will move through the forecast area this evening. Snow showers should move into the forecast area from the west ahead of the 500mb trough axis. During the afternoon lift moves over the forecast area from the north ahead of the 500mb trough axis. There may be some lingering snowfall over the eastern part of the forecast area before the 500mb trough axis moves.
Like last night, a mid-level high pressure centered just east of Key West continues to dominate the local weather. Current observations have temperatures in the mid 70s; temperatures will fall a few degrees tonight, with overnight temperatures in the lower 70s.
A dry cold front will push through the Four Corners on Thursday resulting in a return of colder temperatures and gusty northeast winds.
439 PM MST Wed Feb 8 2023 Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low over the Southern Plains with another trough over the Northern Rockies. A large area of cloud cover from the resulting water vapor was seen ahead of the closed low. At the surface a cold front was moving east-southeast out of Wyoming. Tonight the cold front will move through the forecast area this evening. Snow showers should move into the forecast area from the west ahead of the 500mb trough axis. During the afternoon lift moves over the forecast area from the north ahead of the 500mb trough axis. There may be some lingering snowfall over the eastern part of the forecast area before the 500mb trough axis moves.
951 PM MST Wed Feb 8 2023 Cold front continues to race southward across the state today. High pressure dominates the rest of the week and into the weekend, with slowly moderating temperatures and lighter winds.
An upper ridge will build into the region through Thursday for dry conditions and mostly clear skies.
1145 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 Previously discussed cold front has exited the forecast area, with breezy northwest winds and low stratus already across the northwest, quickly expanding southeast through the rest of western and central North Dakota. Light freezing rain is not entirely out of the question in the James River Valley, although it looks to be on the lower end of probability.
1049 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Water vapor imagery shows the upper level low responsible for the rain showers this morning continuing to push to the east along with drier air overtaking the region. Surface temperatures above freezing will also cause any surviving snowflakes to melt immediately. Cold air advection driven by breezy northerly winds will keep temperatures cold with highs ranging from the low 40s in the SW TX Panhandle to the mid 50s in the southern Rolling Plains.
- Period of freezing rain Interior Lower MI late tonight to Thursday morning With a warm front tracking into southern and central parts of the CWA late tonight into Thursday. Much of the region will be above freezing Thursday as the precipitation arrives. however our northeast zones will likely start out below freezing at the onset. Forecast soundings show a warm layer up around 850 mb with a shallow sub freezing layer near the ground. This should result in freezing rain. By 15z enough warming is forecast to occur the send surface temperatures above freezing. We expect it will be all liquid at all of the fcst terminals with temps just above freezing, and only expected to go up.
1110 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 Water vapor imagery currently shows a compact upper low lifting across northern TX with a dry slot nosing into south central/se KS. However, as the lowest couple thousand feet cool due to wet bulb processes, should start to see some flakes start to mix-in. By Fri afternoon, sharp upper trough will be pushing east of the area with upper ridging building-in over the Rockies. Both the ECMWF and GFS agree fairly well in tracking a closed upper low into Southern CA by Sun morning and into the Desert Southwest by Mon morning. The ECMWF is much more progressive compared to the GFS which results in the GFS generating some precip during the day Mon, with the ECMWF keeping things dry until Mon evening, when the main southern stream upper low starts to impact southern KS.
Low-level winds continue to be more southerly today ahead of a trough and associated cold front, with rather warm and humid conditions persisting.
High pressure will move in overhead, and with a good radiational cooling setup, widespread mid to upper 30s can be expected across the CWA. Winds will remain more westerly to start the day on Thursday as our next cold front approaches from the northwest late in the day.
155 AM MST Thu Feb 9 2023 Most recent upper air models show upper ridge over the west coast with toughing on the lee side of the Rockies. Current surface analysis depicts low pressure over northern Minnesota, and a cold front stretching east to west through southern North Dakota. The higher snowfall amounts are expected in the northern Black Hills, where upslope enhancement will aid in higher snowfall rates.
Cooler air to start the weekend with another low to the east. The highest wind speeds will occur during the afternoon as convection and diurnal mixing bring the strongest winds down to the surface. Rain showers will develop today through this evening as a trough moves from west to east. Gusty conditions continue overnight with a cold front bringing a change of direction from the west.
(Rest of tonight) Have seen an increase in cloud cover this evening, and winds are starting to pick up thanks to an increasing low level pressure gradient ahead of a cold front. The cold front can be seen tracking east through central AR and LA, soon to approach the western MS state line. As the cold front continues to track through MS, expect a drop off of low level moisture and in turn instability with the loss of diurnal heating.
1100 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 (Rest of tonight) Have seen an increase in cloud cover this evening, and winds are starting to pick up thanks to an increasing low level pressure gradient ahead of a cold front. The cold front can be seen tracking east through central AR and LA, soon to approach the western MS state line. As the cold front continues to track through MS, expect a drop off of low level moisture and in turn instability with the loss of diurnal heating.
954 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 Previously discussed cold front has exited the forecast area, with breezy northwest winds and low stratus already across the northwest, quickly expanding southeast through the rest of western and central North Dakota. Light freezing rain is not entirely out of the question in the James River Valley, although it looks to be on the lower end of probability.