Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
459 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 (This evening through Tuesday night) Upper level trough exiting to the east with northwest flow dominating from early to mid week. There will be a little disturbance embedded in the northwest flow will kick a weak cold front through tonight.
The tail-end of the antecedent cold front arrives tonight and exits the FA by mid-day tomorrow with high pressure advancing into the area behind the front. The deepest cold air following the frontal system will graze far north-central and northeastern Oklahoma, and that is where the cooler max temperatures are expected.
657 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 - A cold front will move through the region this afternoon bringing the chance (~30%) for sprinkles/drizzle.
603 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 (Tonight) A narrow ridge of high pressure over the OH into the lower MS valley will shift southeast tonight, lowering wind speeds quickly early this evening. Lows should dip into the lower to middle 30s.
734 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023 High pressure will build into the area tonight.
518 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Yet another upper level short wave trough is moving southeastward across the northern and central Plains this afternoon and will approach the western Great Lakes by sunrise Tuesday. There will be enough impetus from this trough to push a weak cold front through the forecast area tonight. As the upper trough moves further into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday and weak upper level ridging builds overhead, modest north winds will circle around to east and southeast by the end of the day.
454 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 (This evening through Tuesday Night) High pressure reigns over the eastern half of Texas, and the the satellite certainly shows it with a lack of well. This specific center of high pressure looks to drift off to the east tonight - so winds may become a bit more easterly tonight, though we'll likely just see winds go slack as the boundary layer decouples. The coast, moderated by Gulf waters in the lower 60s, should stay hung up in the 50s overnight. Don't fret too much about this departed high pressure, though. A clipper moving from the Dakotas today through the Great Lakes tomorrow will clip us with the tail end of its cold front, then another high drops into the Great Plains behind it.
Southerly winds will remain fairly light this evening, but will veer out of the west after midnight ahead of the next cold front as it approaches from the northwest and moves through the area Tuesday morning. Other than a few high clouds, skies will stay mostly clear and will allow temperatures to fall into the low-mid 30s across much of E.
Not too much to write about as a big mid level ridge is going to build over the region during this time period. With this pattern in place, expect primarily clear skies over the region for the next 24 hours with min temps tonight over the plains ranging from around freezing in the banana belt sections to around 20F over the far eastern plains. - Next storm system arrives during the end of the work week, bringing cooler weather and increased precipitation chances.
331 PM MST Mon Dec 4 2023 Key Messages: 1) Showers across the west end this afternoon, while a cold front drops across Johnson County and the Bighorn Basin, bringing gusty winds and snow showers this afternoon.
After midnight, we are already expecting the warm front to push in from the west, so any precipitation which begins to fall as snow around midnight could easily change over to rain as the early morning progresses toward noon.
Only minor (if any) impacts are expected given how light the snow will be and that temps will be near to mainly above the freezing mark.
1106 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 - A cold front will move through the region this afternoon bringing the chance (~30%) for sprinkles/drizzle.
917 PM PST Mon Dec 4 2023 High pressure aloft, and weak to locally moderate offshore winds, will bring fair and warm weather again on Tuesday.
1017 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 (This evening through Tuesday night) Upper level trough exiting to the east with northwest flow dominating from early to mid week. There will be a little disturbance embedded in the northwest flow will kick a weak cold front through tonight.
Today, sunny skies will continue as an upper level ridge pushes into the region. We're expecting similar highs to yesterday (mid 60s to low 70s), as the 850 mb thermal ridge remains about the same strength.
944 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 High clouds are streaming across the region with cooler temps under the clear skies. Temps are a few degrees warmer under the clouds and closer to the coast.
Expect overnight low temperatures to fall into the lower 30s across Oklahoma and Arkansas with slightly warmer temps in the mid 30s elsewhere. /05/ (This evening through Tuesday Night) Pretty quiet short term forecast resulting from upper troughing across the Great Lakes into the Mid Miss Valley and broad upper ridging aross the Four Corners Region of the Country. Should see very similar conditions on Tuesday that we have seen today, but perhaps just a little warmer with continued west to northwest winds at the surface. While we stayed on the higher side of guidance concerning daytime high temperatures on Tuesday, did not go quite as warm as MAVMOS guidance, instead between MAV and NBM output.
1017 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Yet another upper level short wave trough is moving southeastward across the northern and central Plains this afternoon and will approach the western Great Lakes by sunrise Tuesday. There will be enough impetus from this trough to push a weak cold front through the forecast area tonight. As the upper trough moves further into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday and weak upper level ridging builds overhead, modest north winds will circle around to east and southeast by the end of the day.
1146 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) A dry cold front is currently moving through the area associated with a clipper system crossing the Southern Appalachians. High pressure briefly builds in tonight, resulting in calm winds and good radiational cooling conditions. Another clipper system moves through the Ohio and Lower Tennessee Valleys tomorrow within the eastern CONUS trough. Increased westerly winds ahead of the associated cold front will cause temperatures to warm above guidance tomorrow, similar to today.
140 AM MST Tue Dec 5 2023 This afternoon a cold front is moving over the Central High Plains, bringing in breezy northwest winds with gusts up to 30-35 mph. Tomorrow the area will be under northwest flow aloft as a ridge of high pressure moves over the Western CONUS.
137 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023 - Patchy fog with near or sub freezing temperatures in some locations is possible early this morning. A low pressure system spinning out of IA will track across central IL/IN and the Mid Ohio Valley today. South of there, cleared skies and temperatures near/just below freezing have led to some patchy fog development. This could last a few more hours, continuing a freezing fog hazard until the cloud cover moves in and temperatures recover.
A drying trend follows today with cooler and mostly dry conditions through the balance of the week. This short wave along with an inverted trough has allowed for light snow to persist across the mountains through western and central Maine. High pressure noses in from the north this evening into tonight while trough digs across the Mid Atlantic. This trough will spread some clouds into southern NH and far SW Maine tonight along with low chances for some snow showers.
Dry and warmer conditions follow for the second half of the week. Meanwhile sharpening low level thermal trough in post sys nwrly flow will yield lake effect showers by mid evening and overnight.
As a short wave trough moves off the Mid Atlantic Coast early this morning, a stronger trough will dig into the southeastern CONUS today and tonight. At this surface, this upper level pattern has resulted in a series of cold fronts.
The precip chances will decrease and shift northward on Tuesday as an upper ridge shifts eastward and is replaced with southwest flow aloft. The most likely area to see fog will be in the Lower Treasure Valley (Ontario) based on latest hi-res model trends. MVFR/IFR with local LIFR conditions and areas of mountain obscuration in fog and stratus in the lower valleys after midnight, including KMYL, KBKE, KONO, KEUL, and KJER.
801 PM MST Mon Dec 4 2023 Additional Evening Update: As low clouds continue to clear away across far NE Montana and far NW North Dakota, areas of dense freezing fog are forming, as indicated by satellite imagery and observations. After midnight, we are already expecting the warm front to push in from the west, so any precipitation which begins to fall as snow around midnight could easily change over to rain as the early morning progresses toward noon.
The western extent of the subtropical ridge axis stretches west across the Bahamas. Meanwhile, a small high pressure cell centered near the Red River Valley is building southeast across the Gulf of Mexico. In between the two relative highs is a weak cold front, which is now nearing South Florida. Dewpoints are in the mid 50s across Charlotte County and in the lower 70s in Collier County.
1140 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023 A dry cold front will move through tonight.
924 PM MST Mon Dec 4 2023 This afternoon a cold front is moving over the Central High Plains, bringing in breezy northwest winds with gusts up to 30-35 mph. Tomorrow the area will be under northwest flow aloft as a ridge of high pressure moves over the Western CONUS.
326 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023 Rain and snow is expected today and tonight as an area of low pressure crosses the region.
1122 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 High clouds are streaming across the region with cooler temps under the clear skies. Temps are a few degrees warmer under the clouds and closer to the coast.
(Today) A dry surface cold front will move through the area this morning with a breezy northwest wind developing behind it, continuing through the rest of today.
1058 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023 High pressure will build into the area tonight.
1049 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 (This evening through Tuesday Night) High pressure reigns over the eastern half of Texas, and the the satellite certainly shows it with a lack of well. This specific center of high pressure looks to drift off to the east tonight - so winds may become a bit more easterly tonight, though we'll likely just see winds go slack as the boundary layer decouples. The coast, moderated by Gulf waters in the lower 60s, should stay hung up in the 50s overnight. Don't fret too much about this departed high pressure, though. A clipper moving from the Dakotas today through the Great Lakes tomorrow will clip us with the tail end of its cold front, then another high drops into the Great Plains behind it.
1246 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023 High pressure will build into the area tonight.
1111 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 (Rest of tonight) High pressure will continue to sink southeast over the region tonight, keeping dry conditions in place. Radiational cooling will allow temps to fall into the low to mid 30s overnight.
(Rest of tonight) High pressure will continue to sink southeast over the region tonight, keeping dry conditions in place. Radiational cooling will allow temps to fall into the low to mid 30s overnight.
Only minor (if any) impacts are expected given how light the snow will be and that temps will be near to mainly above the freezing mark. The late week period will feature well above normal temperatures with highs in the 40s and 50s as an anomalously warm air mass east of the Rockies continues spreading eastward with the help of a low pressure system tracking across srn Canada.
To our west, a cold front is draped from New Orleans to northeast AL.
(Rest of Today) Temps have gradually started to rebound this Tue morning into the mid 30s/lower 40s from their earlier lows in the lower 30s/near 30F. High pressure remains layered over the western/central Gulf Coast areas, as a dry, reinforcing cold front approaches from the NW.
Just like yesterday, our synoptic configuration consists of a ridge in the western CONUS, and a broad trough encompassing the central and eastern CONUS. High pressure is currently situated across the Lower Mississippi River Valley (MRV). By Wednesday morning, Central Alabama will be on the back side of a fairly amplified mid- to upper-level trough. High pressure will spread across much of the MRV, gradually moving toward the Southeast tomorrow evening. Lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s are forecast, with some colder valley microclimates possibly in the lower 20s.
(Through tonight) A cold front pushed through early this morning and will help keep temperatures slightly below normal this afternoon. Highs are forecast to be in the lower to middle 60s. An H5 trough digging into the eastern half of the country later tonight pushes another dry cold front through the region. This will push temperatures down into the lower to middle 40s along with much drier air filter in behind the front.
13 Breezy conditions will prevail across the Midsouth this afternoon, following the passage of a cold front. Colder air will lag a little behind the cold front. Under sunny skies, Wednesday's high temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.
351 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023 - A cold front will move through the area today.
Models have been suggesting the presence of some wintry precip over the higher elevations of North Georgia. As mentioned previously, temperatures will be near or below freezing in far north GA this morning and tonight.
236 AM PST Tue Dec 5 2023 High pressure aloft and weak offshore flow will bring additional warming today with high temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees above average for the valleys and inland coastal areas.
This first frontal boundary moving through will bring lower dew points and slightly cooler temperatures for today. Hi-res guidance shows dew points, especially in the Lower Keys tanking into the lower 50s. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today compared to yesterday but daytime highs will still be in the lower 80s. This front will usher in a more appreciable air mass change with much cooler temperatures and much drier air. Daytime highs will fall comfortably into the lower to mid 70s with dew points ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s across the island chain. The reason for a gradual slackening of winds is due to a relatively strong high pressure that will move in across the southeast U.
Dry conditions will prevail on Wednesday as ridging influences surface and aloft build in from our west.
It's been a good night for radiational cooling in this cool, dry air mass as temperatures have fallen into the lower 30s in most locations already as of 09z -- and expect a light freeze to occur in most locations early this morning.
05/Marty Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday/ Strong cyclonic flow aloft today will help to drive another cold front down through North and Central Texas in the afternoon. Still, low level advection will remain mostly neutral with highs in the 60s once again, though a reading around 70 degrees can be expected across the higher terrain of the Big Country Wednesday afternoon.
355 AM MST Tue Dec 5 2023 Key message: - Warmer than average temperatures again today Upper level ridge builds into the Rockies today and tonight, bringing above average temps to most of southern Colorado. Despite warming mid-levels and rising heights, maxes today will actually be a few degf cooler than Mon, mainly due to lighter winds and less mixing under the building ridge. Clear and cool again tonight, with sheltered interior valleys coldest, while usual eastern mountain slopes will benefit from a weak downslope wind, keeping mins here near/above freezing.
515 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Southwesterly flow aloft turns more zonal into mid-week as a weak 500mb ridge begins to take shape across Texas, maintaining some high clouds across Deep South Texas through the short term period. Overnight lows warm a degree or two each morning, but still remain cool across the ranchlands in the low to mid 50s and low 60s for the RGV.
/Issued 1108 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023/ /Through Wednesday/ Strong cyclonic flow aloft today will help to drive another cold front down through North and Central Texas in the afternoon. Still, low level advection will remain mostly neutral with highs in the 60s once again, though a reading around 70 degrees can be expected across the higher terrain of the Big Country Wednesday afternoon.
244 AM MST Tue Dec 5 2023 A warm front will move east across eastern Montana today. Will mention a slight chance of light rain and/or freezing rain this morning mainly in the western zones. Some areas currently have temperatures below freezing and with warmer temperatures aloft would allow for the possibility of freezing rain. Upper ridge moves into the forecast area today which will bring record warm temperatures to the western half of the forecast area. Record highs are likely in many areas on Wednesday with the upper ridge and very warm air mass still over the area.
322 AM MST Tue Dec 5 2023 - Look for warm, dry weather for the next couple days under mostly clear skies as a ridge moves across the region.
Patchy freezing fog will continue to be possible in the valley locations in northern Nevada this morning. All models are showing an upper ridge over Nevada today. By tonight, the ridge axis will have shifted eastward. Patchy freezing fog is also possible in the valley locations mainly in Elko county and have included this in the forecast.
As this system continues to track further to the east, upper level ridging will begin to build back over the region influencing a gradual warm up for the forecast area through the week. The very weak and dry cold front as of 2 AM CST is tracking through the Texas Panhandle and is expected to makes its way through the forecast area by sunrise Tuesday. This will allow surface winds to shift out of the north briefly before upper level ridging begins to build in shifting winds to a more east to southeast flow.
408 AM MST Tue Dec 5 2023 - Look for warm, dry weather for the next couple days under mostly clear skies as a ridge moves across the region.
312 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows an upper ridge over the western CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northwest flow aloft. At the surface, a weak cold front is moving through the Texas Panhandle, and will ease into the northern zones this morning, and dissipate invof the Pecos this afternoon. Wednesday, return flow resumes as upper ridging moves through the region.
545 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023 Rain and snow is expected today and tonight as an area of low pressure crosses the region. A few snow showers will continue into Wednesday, mainly across the higher terrain areas of West Virginia and Pennsylvania.
(Today and tonight) High surface pressure builds in for today across the Central & Southern Plains with light north winds behind this mornings weak cold front. However, deterministic models are in agreement with decreasing thicknesses in the boundary layer (1000-850 mb) across the northeast quadrant of Oklahoma for today, so can't rule out that northcentral through central Oklahoma may get slightly cooler this afternoon than yesterday but not significant enough to deviate from NBM temperatures. High pressure settles off to the east tonight across the Missouri/Arkansas Ozarks as south winds return to our area by late Wednesday morning. Light to calm winds early Wednesday morning under clear skies will result in another night of strong radiational cooling with temperatures dropping to freezing across most of our area to just above freezing across southern Oklahoma into northern texas.
Breezy conditions will prevail across the Midsouth this afternoon, following the passage of a cold front. Colder air will lag a little behind the cold front. Under sunny skies, Wednesday's high temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.
552 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023 - A cold front will move through the area today.
And the lowest elevations should only get a rain event.
404 AM MST Tue Dec 5 2023 A mild afternoon is expected today, along with gusty westerly winds as a ridge of high pressure builds over Montana.
Discussion: A trough over the northern Plains this morning will be pushing SW and amplifying through the day. A channeled vort max around the base of the trough will be pushing into our area this afternoon, generating some weak lift and steepening lapse rates. Initially, moisture will be confined below 850 mb, as we are seeing with the low clouds this morning. By 00Z, the midlevels begin to saturate as the trough brings colder temps aloft, and precip should increase quickly around that time in northern sections. A NW flow of around 25 kts will enhance precip rates in the higher elevations through Wednesday morning.
521 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023 (Today) A dry surface cold front will move through the area this morning with a breezy northwest wind developing behind it, continuing through the rest of today.
631 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023 Conditions will trend cooler through Wednesday, with intermittent periods of showers as we head into mid week.
529 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023 Breezy conditions will prevail across the Midsouth this afternoon, following the passage of a cold front. Colder air will lag a little behind the cold front. Under sunny skies, Wednesday's high temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.
(Today through Wednesday) Relatively benign conditions continue today before a weak cold front moves through the area. This frontal passage is expected to be dry due to the low moisture in the area. Only real impacts on the weather would be to bring a shot of some cooler air and slightly stronger winds. Other than that, high pressure roughly over the ArkLaTex region will continue to build.
738 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023 Rain and snow is expected today and tonight as an area of low pressure crosses the region. A few snow showers will continue into Wednesday, mainly across the higher terrain areas of West Virginia and Pennsylvania.
(Today through Wednesday) Southwesterly flow aloft turns more zonal into mid-week as a weak 500mb ridge begins to take shape across Texas, maintaining some high clouds across Deep South Texas through the short term period. Overnight lows warm a degree or two each morning, but still remain cool across the ranchlands in the low to mid 50s and low 60s for the RGV.
501 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Weak east to northeasterly winds will continue today through Wednesday as a weak reinforcing surge of high pressure and drier air pushes through tonight into Wednesday morning. Late tonight through Wednesday, the jet moves off to the east as low-level high pressure (925-700mb) centers over South Texas; this will cause subsidence and mostly sunny skies on Wednesday. Highs today and Wednesday will range in the low to mid 70s with lows tonight dropping down into the mid 40s inland to the mid 50s along the Rio Grande and coast.
215 AM MST Tue Dec 5 2023 A strong high pressure system will bring well above normal temperatures through the middle of the week with widespread lower desert afternoon highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees in the Phoenix area.
Models continue to show a possibility of a few snowflakes mixing in with the showers after 2-3am for the higher elevations along the plateau. Dry conditions will prevail on Wednesday as ridging influences surface and aloft build in from our west.
Given the above freezing surface temperatures, any impacts will be very minimal. Only minor (if any) impacts are expected given how light the snow will be and that temps will be near to mainly above the freezing mark. The late week period will feature well above normal temperatures with highs in the 40s and 50s as an anomalously warm air mass east of the Rockies continues spreading eastward with the help of a low pressure system tracking across srn Canada.