Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
640 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Expansive 500mb ridge will be at its strongest today and combine with sufficient humidity to warrant a heat advisory for Brooks and the eastern 3 coastal counties. Rain chances are close to zero as subsidence increases and pwats lower ahead of an weak mid-level disturbance rotating around the eastern periphery of the ridge. Wednesday may be our best chance for rain as deterministic models continue to show an inverted trough moving across NE Mexico from the Gulf tomorrow afternoon. Added moisture, pwats increasing near 2 inches, the proximity of the trough and the sea breeze may be enough to ignite isolated showers and thunderstorms.
311 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Slightly cooler temperatures are in store today as the upper area of high pressure moves into the Ark-La-Tex region by this evening.
1005 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 High pressure builds into the area and will remain in control of the weather pattern through Wednesday.
At the surface, a cold front will also be moving southward across ND, so expect most of the thunderstorm activity to be north. The bigger story will be the hot temperatures as we see 850mb temps climb a little more into the low 20s C by afternoon. Most areas are forecast to rise into the low to mid 90s, and with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s, some areas may get close to 100 degree heat indices.
618 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night ) Hot and humid conditions look to continue for the short term period as an upper ridge centered to the west of AR slowly wobbles closer to the state through Wed. This will keep slightly cooler/drier condtions across the NERN portion of AR through this afternoon. to the low 90s to around 100 further W/SW. Cannot forget about some potential convection across NERN sections through mid afternoon on the periphery of the upper ridge. As the upper ridge wobbles closer to AR on Wed.
The highest pops during this time frame are along the IA/MO border.
402 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through midweek, leading to dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. A warmer and more humid airmass will return toward the end of the workweek into the weekend, bringing with it renewed chances for showers and storms. National blend of models begins to introduce PoPs Wednesday evening with a weak disturbance (and potential MCS- generator) descending the downwind side of a central Plains mid- level ridge.
An upper level ridge sits nearby and continues to exert enough influence over the area to keep temperatures a few to several degrees above normal area wide. Temperatures overnight will be mild and sit in the low to mid 70s for most with the higher elevations dipping into the 60s.
Pattern change this weekend with slightly cooler temperatures and more widespread rain chances to follow. The cloud cover/rain has kept temperatuares in the 70s out east, but in the west we are in the low to mid 90s. Due to the high rain totals of 4 to 6 inches in parts of central MO last night and being on the possible western edge of the rainfall axis tonight, we decided to go with a flood watch for many of the same counties that were in one last night. The low level jet should start to weaken by mid to late morning, similar to this morning and the convection should begin to die out. The low level jet ramps back up on Wednesday evening, but the best thunderstorm chances will likely be north and east of the area.
Afternoon high temps look good, with forecast max temps a little warmer than yesterday given the slight expansion of the upper ridge.
237 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Tonight and Tomorrow: A 594dam H5 ridge will continue to expand eastward to cover the region tomorrow.
1234 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 A 600 dam ridge centered over the OK/TX border will continue to move east towards the Arklatex.
As of 1 PM this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms had developed in the mountains and in portions of the High Deserts.
(This evening through Wednesday night) A notable perturbation along the edge of the main H500 low pressure system as observed on the latest 19Z satellite analysis is assisting in developing convection over the NM/CO high terrain. Still favoring the western and portions of the central Panhandles, CAPE values with an nice inverted-v vertical profiles may result in higher probs of strong to maybe severe downburst wind potential from storms, especially the far NW Panhandles closest to the high terrain.
Hourly observations will be blended in to match the cooler than forecast temperatures.
Some semblance of a warm front attempting to lift through the Central Great Lakes, and 850 MB temps rising above 14 C should support highs in the low-mid 80s. Modest instability and higher k indices reside north of I-69, worthy of slight chance pops with the warm front.
Lee troughing will keep surface winds around 10 mph out of the south to southwest and will help keep overnight lows mostly in the 70s. The center of the upper high is expected to move over the Arklatex region tomorrow. This, along with lower thicknesses, will allow for tomorrow to be a few degrees cooler than today.
238 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Cooler and drier through Wednesday. Key Points: * Drier and slightly cooler temperatures through Wednesday.
, we'll see ridge topping energy set off convection upstream, and the warm tongue w/developing overnight LLJ will develop some elevated instability leading into this area of synergy.
252 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday) As the ridge of high pressure slides eastward and becomes more amplified, the trough axis over the east coast begins to progress offshore this afternoon, resulting in increased northwest flow aloft.
Northwest flow aloft coupled with high pressure just to the east Wednesday will result in mostly sunny skies.
1200 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (Today and tonight) More heat awaits today as an upper high lingers over the western Red River Valley before shoving farther east in the days ahead. Water vapor imagery shows this area is already seeing a steady uptick in mid/upper level moistening from monsoonal moisture along the western periphery of the upper ridge.
Discussion: Longwave troughing over New England and ridging over the south central U. This paired with max heating of day will introduce cloudiness and a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon.
1050 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 A 600 dam ridge centered over the OK/TX border will continue to move east towards the Arklatex.
217 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 High pressure centered to our north will control our weather into mid week.
MM/25 (Now through Wednesday) An upper ridge centered over the south central states with ridging extending into the forecast area strengthens over the region through Wednesday as an upper trof oriented near/along the East Coast slowly moves off into the western Atlantic. Subsidence associated with the upper ridge will tend to suppress convective development, but with the weak convergent zone have gone with slight chance pops each afternoon mostly for the coastal counties and part of extreme southeast Mississippi.
(This evening through Wednesday) High pressure will continue to strengthen across the region leaving even hotter conditions across our area.
However, it is not due to the Bermuda High but ridging developing around the ArkLaTex region. This ridging will be shifting our winds to an easterly direction for the rest of the week. This should favor most coastal showers late in the afternoon and evening and slightly cooler temperatures.
A stout 594 dam H5 ridge centered over the southcentral US states will continue to amplify eastward to cover our region. Pop up showers will be possible today south of I-20 behind a stalled cold front closer to the gulf coast. The mid/upper ridge centered over the Southern Plains will begin to build eastward over our region today. With the building ridge and less forcing of note, convective coverage should be very isolated today, but we can't rule out a few afternoon showers or a storm mainly in south MS/central LA.
South Texas will remain under the influence of the mid level ridge, centered over east Texas into the Arklatex region, tonight through Wednesday night.
On Wednesday will see more of a zonal flow over the top of the ridge with embedded weak impulses.
Temperatures this afternoon should peak in the low to mid 80s which is just below the climatic average. Localized flash flooding will be a concern if storms train along an elevated warm front. Warm cloud depths combined with the high PWATs will allow for efficient rainfall rates. The mid-level ridge over the central CONUS will be at its maximum amplitude Wednesday meaning it should be the warmest day in the forecast period. If cloud cover persists for most of the afternoon, then temperatures will like be a few degrees cooler than currently forecast (82 to 91 degrees).
Hot once again with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s, with peak afternoon head indices 105-110 degrees in Okeechobee, St. Not expecting as stormy an afternoon and evening as yesterday due to increasing heights from the mid-upper level trough shifting eastward, as indicated by T500 increasing to around -5. The Atlantic high tenuously extends to Florida, with the ridge axis to the south across the northern Caribbean.
1010 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Hot and dry conditions are expected today ahead of the arrival of monsoonal moisture Wednesday through the weekend, gradually introducing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast, while also promoting cooler temperatures through the remainder of the week. /ISSUED 552 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023/ Persistent upper-level ridging begins to stretch out over much of CONUS, as recognized by cluster analysis through the next several days and continues to supply westerly to southwesterly flow aloft across the region. This, with the onset of several disturbances, will aid in trending cooler temperatures across much of the state; some much needed relief to the well above seasonal temperatures experienced the last few days.
201 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Mid-level ridging building into the region with northwest flow aloft has supported another quiet and hazy day across Upper Michigan.
More than likely this instability will not be enough to allow for severe storms but some stronger storms will be possible with patchy heavy rain the main concern, especially given the 13500 foot freezing level. While heat advisory criteria is not expected to be met, dew point temperatures in the lower 70s and highs around 90 will yield some mid 90 heat indices.
High pressure to our west will begin to breakdown tomorrow, allowing a somewhat more active weather pattern to slowly return to the area.
211 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Warm weather persists the next few days as upper level high pressure remains over the area.
The lower valleys of north-central Idaho from Lowell to Orofino, as well as the Riggins area have around a 60-80% chance of reaching the century mark. As the ridge axis continues to migrate eastward into the Central Plains region of the US, a southwesterly flow will continue to transport modest amounts of monsoonal moisture north into central Idaho and southwestern Montana.
(Tonight) Tonight, we will remain in between the ridge that still lingers out across the Southern Plains and portions of the Southwest and the trough that extends down the East Coast. This pattern has streamed in high level clouds today keeping temps in the 80s for most of the day and a few spots in the lower 90s.
A setup similar to that of early this morning is expected again late tonight into Wednesday morning as the low level jet ramps up and a moisture convergence axis sets up somewhere in the vicinity of Unionville, MO to Salisbury, MO.
Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast through the week. Upper pattern continues to show trough axis just off the east coast, with strong upper ridge remaining well west through the end of the week.
In the meantime, high pressure northeast of the region this afternoon will shift eastward, and allow more of a southerly wind flow Wednesday. For highs Wednesday our counties west of I-65 should see cloud cover from upstream convection keeping readings down into the lower 80s, whereas other locations should see mid to upper 80s, more seasonable for early August.
1140 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Hot and dry conditions are expected today ahead of the arrival of monsoonal moisture Wednesday through the weekend, gradually introducing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast, while also promoting cooler temperatures through the remainder of the week. /ISSUED 552 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023/ Persistent upper-level ridging begins to stretch out over much of CONUS, as recognized by cluster analysis through the next several days and continues to supply westerly to southwesterly flow aloft across the region. This, with the onset of several disturbances, will aid in trending cooler temperatures across much of the state; some much needed relief to the well above seasonal temperatures experienced the last few days.
A 597 dam ridge located over the OK/TX border will start making its way over the Arklatex bringing in above normal temperatures and increased humidity levels.
(Tonight) Temperatures may be a degree or two warmer tonight than last night with a southerly breeze expected to persist through the night.
106 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Broad high pressure will keep the area dry through much of the week.
230 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Broad high pressure will keep the area dry through Wednesday night.
The strong mid to upper level ridge will continue to dominate the local weather pattern through the next few days and result in slim rain chances as well as very dangerous heat conditions. For the rest of today, the high temperatures will peak between 100 and 104 degrees F for areas south of I-10 and between 103 and 107 degrees F for areas north of I-10. However, with very little change in the synoptic pattern, kept the highs similar to what we would experience today instead (maybe a degree less in some locations).
1128 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Cooler and drier through mid week. High pressure remains in control with dry weather and near calm flow. Key Points: * Drier and slightly cooler temperatures today. A building ridge aloft and at the surface will keep the region dry through tonight. This will be one more day with lower dewpoints although temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80's in the lowlands, though this is still average and should feel somewhat comfortable.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) A 597 dm H5 ridge is currently centered just to our north near the OK/TX border, providing us with clear skies and above normal temperatures.
215 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 High pressure builds into the area and will remain in control of the weather pattern through Wednesday.
Slightly cooler temperatures are in store today as the upper area of high pressure moves into the Ark-La-Tex region by this evening.
Tomorrow will be a touch cooler as shower chances linger into the morning hours with drier conditions into the afternoon and evening.
Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Fairly active northwest flow over the northern CONUS will transition to a more zonal flow as the large ridge over the central and western U.
254 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 A weak cold front crosses the area this morning.
(This evening through Wednesday) Mid-level ridging will continue to move slowly towards the east this evening into Wednesday.
Scattered thunderstorms will move into ND by evening leaving us under an upper ridge. This upper ridge will remain in place over the Rockies and High Plains into later this week but monsoonal moisture has been introduced into this southerly upper flow and will move north toward Montana this week.
1236 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Expansive 500mb ridge will be at its strongest today and combine with sufficient humidity to warrant a heat advisory for Brooks and the eastern 3 coastal counties. Rain chances are close to zero as subsidence increases and pwats lower ahead of an weak mid-level disturbance rotating around the eastern periphery of the ridge. Wednesday may be our best chance for rain as deterministic models continue to show an inverted trough moving across NE Mexico from the Gulf tomorrow afternoon. Added moisture, pwats increasing near 2 inches, the proximity of the trough and the sea breeze may be enough to ignite isolated showers and thunderstorms.
157 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through midweek, leading to dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. A warmer and more humid airmass will return toward the end of the workweek into the weekend, bringing with it renewed chances for showers and storms. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s.
(Through Wednesday) Upper level ridging builds in from the west, while a frontal stalled frontal boundary holds over the region. Highs for Wednesday will be in the low to mid 90s.
1205 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level ridge continues it's gradual shift eastward, leading to another dry day with another slight increase in temperatures.
330 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Cooler high pressure builds in behind a cold front through mid week. The next cold front and trough approaches at the end of the week. Aforementioned drier air will be entrenched across ENC behind cold frontal passage, with pleasant and below climo temps and dewpoints.
1025 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 High pressure centered to our north will control our weather into mid week.
1023 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Cool temps are expected again tonight under high pressure.
The highest chances for showers and storms is expected to be later in the afternoon with storms moving east to west as both sea breezes collide.
The flow in the low layers is very weak, so despite the ample CAPE and shear, the storms have not been able to sustain themselves for very long. Tomorrow will be a touch cooler as shower chances linger into the morning hours with drier conditions into the afternoon and evening.
Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
645 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 High pressure builds into the area and will remain in control of the weather pattern through Wednesday.
743 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Cool temps are expected again tonight under high pressure.
617 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (Tonight) Tonight, we will remain in between the ridge that still lingers out across the Southern Plains and portions of the Southwest and the trough that extends down the East Coast. This pattern has streamed in high level clouds today keeping temps in the 80s for most of the day and a few spots in the lower 90s.
(Now through Wednesday) Upper level ridging continues building into the area providing for hot and dry conditions.
729 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 The western periphery of a high pressure system will continue to maintain dry conditions overnight along with light winds. Some semblance of a warm front attempting to lift through the Central Great Lakes, and 850 MB temps rising above 14 C should support highs in the low-mid 80s. Modest instability and higher k indices reside north of I-69, worthy of slight chance pops with the warm front.
741 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Broad high pressure will keep the area dry through Wednesday night.
Pattern change this weekend with slightly cooler temperatures and more widespread rain chances to follow. The cloud cover/rain has kept temperatures in the 70s out east, but in the west we are in the low to mid 90s. Due to the high rain totals of 4 to 6 inches in parts of central MO last night and being on the possible western edge of the rainfall axis tonight, we decided to go with a flood watch for many of the same counties that were in one last night. The low level jet should start to weaken by mid to late morning, similar to this morning and the convection should begin to die out. The low level jet ramps back up on Wednesday evening, but the best thunderstorm chances will likely be north and east of the area.
High pressure remains solidly in place over the great basin this afternoon. A trough well off the west coast is persisting as well. This will bring some slightly cooler temperatures to the interior and a weaker marine inversion at the coast.
Troughing along the East Coast has shoved the weak ridge in the western Atlantic southward and the ridge axis extends over South Florida and The Florida Keys. From synopsis, weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward across the Bahamas and into the Keys will maintain light breezes across the Keys coastal waters through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend.
921 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through midweek, leading to dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. A warmer and more humid airmass will return toward the end of the workweek into the weekend, bringing with it renewed chances for showers and storms. National blend of models begins to introduce PoPs Wednesday evening with a weak disturbance (and potential MCS- generator) descending the downwind side of a central Plains mid- level ridge.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) As the ridge of high pressure slides eastward and becomes more amplified, the trough axis over the east coast begins to progress offshore this afternoon, resulting in increased northwest flow aloft.
(Through Wednesday) Upper level ridging builds in from the west, while a stalled frontal boundary holds over the region. Highs for Wednesday will be in the low to mid 90s.
Dewpoints are in the lower 60s behind the lake breeze and mid to upper 60s inland. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s, much warmer than the past two nights.
847 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Broad high pressure will keep the area dry through Wednesday night.
High pressure nudges closer to our region late week with above average temperatures expected by the weekend. (This evening through Wednesday) The interplay between an upper level trough off the West Coast and expansive upper level ridge over the Desert SW continues to evolve.
727 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Cool temps are expected again tonight under high pressure.
617 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (Tonight) Temperatures may be a degree or two warmer tonight than last night with a southerly breeze expected to persist through the night.
Farther west near the I-65 corridor to the AL/MS border, expect warmer low temperatures overnight dropping into the 65 to 70 degree range.
726 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Tonight and Tomorrow: A 594dam H5 ridge will continue to expand eastward to cover the region tomorrow. As a cold front currently near the coast lifts back into our area isolated diurnal storms and showers will be possible south of I-20 today and tomorrow.
639 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Mid-level ridging will continue to move slowly towards the east this evening into Wednesday.
554 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Updated Aviation Discussion Warm weather persists the next few days as upper level high pressure remains over the area.
615 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) A 597 dm H5 ridge is currently centered just to our north near the OK/TX border, providing us with clear skies and above normal temperatures.
957 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 An upper level disturbance combined with the sea breeze and a weak inland trof will produce widely scattered thunderstorms into early evening. Dry and seasonable high pressure will then build in for the mid to late week period. The high will shift offshore by the weekend with warmer temperatures expected. Tonight into Wednesday high pressure slides east across the Northeastern U.
1059 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Update High pressure will begin to slide off to the east tonight allowing south flow to develop. As the south flow develops a very weak warm front will lift northward through the area. This activity is again associated with a weak warm front which is best seen in the theta-e gradient at 850mb. Not out of the realm of possibilities to even see a lightning strike or two of the lake given a boost in low level moisture from the warmer lake. Northwest flow aloft coupled with high pressure just to the east Wednesday will result in mostly sunny skies.