Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
332 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 (Issued 328 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023) Tonight and Tuesday: Late tonight into early Tuesday morning, westerly winds will develop along the southern side of an upper level trough digging into the area from the Hudson Bay. As the upper level trough propagates eastward into New England Tuesday afternoon and evening, a surface cold frontal feature will produce rapid temperature drops and gusty winds from southeastern to southwestern Wisconsin. Stiff northeasterly winds will continue through the remainder of the overnight hours on Tuesday, bringing low temperatures in the lower 40s.
High pressure and drier air will continue for the next couple of days with highs pressure to our northeast. As a cold front starts to push towards the state in the middle part of the week high pressure will be shifting to the Atlantic.
333 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023 Discussion/Marine/FireWeather - Cold front drops down from the north Tuesday This feature is shown to be lacking deeper moisture.
Between the stratus and north winds of 10-20 mph, afternoon temperatures will remain well below mid May normals, struggling into the low to mid 60s (normal is 78 at DDC).
though temperatures are running a little warmer than the forecast so adjusted highs up a few degrees. The high will remain over the region through Tuesday.
153 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023 High pressure will keep the region dry through tonight. Low pressure passing south over WV could bring a brief period of light rain Tuesday, with greatest chances south of I-70. Some slight warming in the low-mid levels and an increase high clouds should keep temperatures a degree or two warmer than last night, which should limit any concerns for frost. The cold front dropping southward out of NY loses its moisture as it moves into PA Tuesday night, with the better lift remaining over New England.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Low level easterly flow continues across South Florida due to high pressure extending from the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf, and weak low pressure sitting over the Carribean. On Tuesday, the low over the Carribean moves off to the east, and the low level easterly flow weakens across the area.
Ridging remains the main influence on the weather pattern, resulting in very warm and humid conditions. Updated hourly temp/dewpoint/wind grids to reflect recent obs, but otherwise high temps are on track to climb as high as the lower 90s across our LA Parishes, and around 90 across SE TX.
Warmer than normal temperatures are expected away from the coast through much of the coming week. Closer to the coast, cooler temperatures are likely to persist, with night through morning low clouds and fog. High pressure to the north and a weak upper low to south have opened the door for moisture to move in from the east, but models definitely have backed off the amount of moisture since late last week, at least at the lower levels.
Upper ridging across the eastern half of our CWA into the Lower Mississippi Valley will break down, as an upper trough swings across the Midwest, slowly nudging the frontal boundary to near the I-30 corridor.
106 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023 High pressure continues to take hold over the area through tonight.
Kept about 20 percent chance of rain for tonight but have 40 to 50 percent POPs for Tuesday morning as a broad mid-level trough lingers over the state of Texas.
Rain chances will increase on Tuesday, ahead of an upper level disturbance and surface cold front.
1136 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023 High pressure will keep the region dry through tonight. Low pressure passing south over WV could bring a brief period of light rain Tuesday, with greatest chances south of I-70. Some slight warming in the low-mid levels and an increase high clouds should keep temperatures a degree or two warmer than last night, which should limit any concerns for frost.
311 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 This Afternoon through Tomorrow: A ridge of high pressure aloft is centered directly overhead, which means weak flow and minimal wind shear today. The ridge is expected to translate farther south and east by tomorrow, which should allow for a little better flow aloft and a little less subsidence through the mid levels. Today, this has been a limiting factor for most storms that have developed, as the 12Z KJAN sounding showed poor mid- level lapse rates especially above the freezing level. A cold front will also slip into the region by the afternoon, and this could serve as a focus for convection by the afternoon.
(This evening through Tuesday) Expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to continue to diminish through the rest of the afternoon into this evening as mid-level system finally exits to the east and a cold front pushes deeper moisture south and east of the area. With drier air in place lows tonight will be a bit cooler than recent nights, with temperatures falling into the low 50s (potentially upper 40s) in northern and western Oklahoma, with mid to upper 50s for the rest of the area.
1241 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023 Clouds decrease from the north this afternoon with highs in the lower 70s.
956 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to continue to diminish through the rest of the afternoon into this evening as mid-level system finally exits to the east and a cold front pushes deeper moisture south and east of the area. With drier air in place lows tonight will be a bit cooler than recent nights, with temperatures falling into the low 50s (potentially upper 40s) in northern and western Oklahoma, with mid to upper 50s for the rest of the area.
Upper level low over north-central Oregon this evening will continue the threat for showers and thunderstorms through midnight. The upper low moves over western Washington Tuesday afternoon and will once again produce thunderstorms however, these will be limited across our northern zones and along the the Idaho/Nevada border.
640 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 Periodic chances for showers and isolated storms will be possible through tomorrow as a low pressure area slowly drifts across southern Illinois. A low pressure area will slowly drift from southern MO into southern IL by later tonight, and then into the lower OH valley tomorrow through tomorrow night. Higher pops will be closer to the low with northern areas of the CWA likely not seeing any precip through the period. The highest QPF will be during the 12hrs from midnight through noon tomorrow. However, slightly cooler air will move into the area behind the low, and overnight lows Tue night are expected to be around 50. Auten Dry weather and seasonable temps are expected Wed through Thur as high pressure dominates the area.
922 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 (Issued 907 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023) Still expecting another quiet and cool night as the high slides south of the area. Still expecting the strong back door cold front to push south-southwest through Tuesday afternoon bring not only an abrupt wind shift but also an abrupt temp swing. Looking at highs to top off in the mid to upper 70s with a few spots possible cracking 80F, but with the strong backdoor cold front temps look to quickly drop into the 60s and 50s later in the afternoon through the early evening thus making it a pneumonia front.
While temperatures are rather uniform over the CWA, in the lower to mid 60s at 1 PM, we're definitely seeing a far more pleasant day in the northeast 1/2 of the area, with sunshine and light winds, as opposed to the cloud cover, and east winds found in the southwest 1/2. Another round of stronger F-gen forcing is forecasted for late evening, and early overnight, which the NBM is showing 60-70 percent pops south of Highway 34 again, and like last night, that seems like a good stratiform rain threat, but given the low level dry air flow, will push this a bit south to our far southern areas, that saw rain this past morning.
Many outflow boundaries remain in place and will likely act as the focus for redevelopment tomorrow before a cold front sweeps across the region.
641 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 This Afternoon through Tomorrow: A ridge of high pressure aloft is centered directly overhead, which means weak flow and minimal wind shear today. The ridge is expected to translate farther south and east by tomorrow, which should allow for a little better flow aloft and a little less subsidence through the mid levels. Today, this has been a limiting factor for most storms that have developed, as the 12Z KJAN sounding showed poor mid- level lapse rates especially above the freezing level. A cold front will also slip into the region by the afternoon, and this could serve as a focus for convection by the afternoon.
At the surface, high is located over SD and stretches through western Nebraska, with a cold front from southern MO into central TX. So Flint Hills and especially southeast KS will have the higher rain chances this evening. For Wed night into Thu morning there is good model agreement in a deep upper low sinking south across Manitoba and into the northern Plains by Thu afternoon. For Thu into Thu night, the deep upper low will be tracking into northern MN and finally into the Northern Great Lakes region. This will allow a fairly strong cold front to sink south across the Plains and will provide high rain chances for Thu night into Fri.
657 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023 High pressure will keep the region dry through tonight. Low pressure passing south over WV could bring a brief period of light rain Tuesday, with greatest chances south of I-70. Some slight warming in the low-mid levels and an increase high clouds should keep temperatures a degree or two warmer than last night, which should limit any concerns for frost. The cold front dropping southward out of NY loses its moisture as it moves into PA Tuesday night, with the better lift remaining over New England.
723 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023 Aviation - Cold front drops down from the north Tuesday This feature is shown to be lacking deeper moisture.
623 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Current surface analysis has our cold front analyzed across the Edwards Plateau, extending back west through the Big Bend over into the Davis Mtns/Marfa Plateau corridor. A slow clearing of cloud cover through tomorrow morning, outside the Lower Trans Pecos where clouds will likely linger.
For tomorrow (Tuesday), a change in the surface wind flow is anticipated as winds should gradually turn westerly as the surface ridging is expected to weakens and moves south while a cold front approaches the N Gulf. High pressure currently to our northwest is giving us easterly flow today. This high pressure will shift east and will cross the state overnight.
507 PM MDT Mon May 15 2023 Current surface analysis shows high pressure over the northern and central plains with a trough developing to the east of the Rockies in Alberta/Montana/Wyoming.
726 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023 Low pressure will track across Kentucky on Tuesday. High pressure will then build in for mid week. A cold front will move through the region at the end of the week. Slight cooler and drier airmass will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s Tuesday night.
626 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 No significant changes were needed with this update, with ridging both at the surface and aloft leading to quiet weather tonight. The eastern edge of a much warmer 850mb air mass moves into the forecast area on Tuesday, while upper flow becomes more northerly. Highs will be slightly warmer today, in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with mostly sunny skies except for any smoke that moves in. A cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms starting midweek, with cooler temperatures to end the work week before warming up again this weekend. Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement on a closed low dropping south from the Canadian Prairies through the middle and end of the work week, bringing multiple cold front passages and chances for showers and thunderstorms.
627 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 (Through tonight ) Area of low pressure in the mid levels continues to move across eastern OK this afternoon, and will gradually lift to the northeast through tonight. A cooler and drier airmass will spread across part of northeast OK resulting in cooler temps tonight. (Tomorrow through Monday) Aside from some lingering shower chances across northwest AR, Tuesday will feature dry weather, albeit with limited sunshine and cooler daytime highs.
A cloud formed in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys today, resulting in intermittent episodes of frequent light and moderate rains. Similar to the previous evening, the high-resolution models indicate the formation of showers through weak boundaries and convection from the Florida Peninsula across the island chain tonight.
The clouds will limit cooling tonight, especially in the CSRA, with overnight lows mostly in the lower to mid 60s. At the surface, the day will start off with the previous front that has been stalled out south of the cwa beginning to move back towards the north as a warm front though the day. In addition, a stronger cold front will be pushing towards the east out of the lower Mississippi River Valley during the daytime hours. Temperatures still will be slightly warmer than normal with the warm advection and potential sunshine through the day.
(Tomorrow through Monday) Aside from some lingering shower chances across northwest AR, Tuesday will feature dry weather, albeit with limited sunshine and cooler daytime highs.
An upper low was migrating northward across Oregon this afternoon. Elsewhere, a cumulus field was deepening over the interior ridges of Trinity County. NWRN CA will generally reside between a trough over the NERN PAC and a weak ridge located across the Intermountain West.
Upper level high pressure continues to drift into the western Atlantic, while diminishing, through Tuesday. The pressure gradient continues to relax in the vicinity of the high. The highest coverage is expected across the interior, along the sea breeze collision. It will be another hot day, with temperatures reaching the lower 90s west of I-95.
The upper low over the Pacific Northwest shows little movement and mid- level moisture will linger over the region. Warmer temperatures lead to increased instability Tuesday resulting in another round of afternoon convection. Gusty outflow wind of 35 to 45 mph is the most likely hazard over the population centers of the lower elevations given temperature-dew point spreads. More sunshine coupled with warmer 700mb temperatures boost daytime highs to 5-10F above normal Tuesday afternoon, as most lower elevation locales reach the 70s and even the lower 80s below 4500 feet MSL.
706 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to continue to diminish through the rest of the afternoon into this evening as mid-level system finally exits to the east and a cold front pushes deeper moisture south and east of the area. With drier air in place lows tonight will be a bit cooler than recent nights, with temperatures falling into the low 50s (potentially upper 40s) in northern and western Oklahoma, with mid to upper 50s for the rest of the area.
Upper level ridge will remain in control of the Northern California weather this week with dry and warm weather.
on Tuesday will be rather disorganized with a ridge trying to build in from the west, though the argument could be made that the pattern may better resemble a split flow regime or blocking pattern. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be focused across the eastern half of the forecast area and of course over the higher terrain. Daytime high temps will be in the low 70s to low 80s with overnight lows mostly in he low 40s to low 50s.
854 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 Periodic chances for showers and isolated storms will be possible through tomorrow as a low pressure area slowly drifts across southern Illinois. Barnes A low pressure area will slowly drift from southern MO into southern IL by later tonight, and then into the lower OH valley tomorrow through tomorrow night. Higher pops will be closer to the low with northern areas of the CWA likely not seeing any precip through the period. The highest QPF will be during the 12hrs from midnight through noon tomorrow. However, slightly cooler air will move into the area behind the low, and overnight lows Tue night are expected to be around 50. Auten Dry weather and seasonable temps are expected Wed through Thur as high pressure dominates the area.
745 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023 High pressure will keep the region dry through tonight. Low pressure passing south over WV could bring a brief period of light rain Tuesday, with greatest chances south of I-70. Some slight warming in the low-mid levels and an increase high clouds should keep temperatures a degree or two warmer than last night, which should limit any concerns for frost. The cold front dropping southward out of NY loses its moisture as it moves into PA Tuesday night, with the better lift remaining over New England.
Moisture continues to move into Arizona from the east and southeast, as high pressure strengthens and assumes a favorable position near the Four Corners. The stronger high pressure will only be a temporary thing, weakening this afternoon and Tuesday.
800 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023 Low pressure will track across Kentucky on Tuesday. High pressure will then build in for mid week. A cold front will move through the region at the end of the week. Clouds will likely thicken up late across our southwest ahead of a low pressure system moving toward the Tennessee Valley. Slight cooler and drier airmass will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s Tuesday night.
/DL/ This Afternoon through Tomorrow: A ridge of high pressure aloft is centered directly overhead, which means weak flow and minimal wind shear today. The ridge is expected to translate farther south and east by tomorrow, which should allow for a little better flow aloft and a little less subsidence through the mid levels. Today, this has been a limiting factor for most storms that have developed, as the 12Z KJAN sounding showed poor mid- level lapse rates especially above the freezing level. A cold front will also slip into the region by the afternoon, and this could serve as a focus for convection by the afternoon.
Across the south, particularly the far southern service area highs could be a bit cooler and in the lower to mid 70s where clouds linger the longest. First will be a backdoor cold front, which is depicted in the models to drop down across the area late this evening and overnight from NE to SW.
A weak upper flow pattern with deep layer ridging resides over the Northern Plains early this morning. A cold front tied to a low pressure system moving from northern Saskatchewan into central Manitoba will approach northwest North Dakota later tonight, introducing breezy conditions and a chance of showers. Until then, another quiet night is expected with a light southerly breeze and warmer lows in the lower to mid 50s.
An upper-level low pressure system will continue to spin over central Washington today, pulling in a very moist and unstable air-mass over the Northern Rockies.
358 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 An area of low pressure will move just south of the region today bringing showers and some thunderstorms to the region. High pressure and dry conditions will be present for the middle of the week.
319 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Dry air remains over the much of the peninsula early this morning as high pressure remains aloft over the region. At the surface, high pressure to our northeast shifts out into the Atlantic as a frontal boundary approaches the region tonight into Wednesday.
In terms of temperatures, most areas likely already hit their peak for the day which ended up being the low to even mid 90s for most places.
115 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 High pressure will keep the region dry through tonight. Low pressure passing south over WV could bring a brief period of light rain Tuesday, with greatest chances south of I-70. Some slight warming in the low-mid levels and an increase high clouds should keep temperatures a degree or two warmer than last night, which should limit any concerns for frost. The cold front dropping southward out of NY loses its moisture as it moves into PA Tuesday night, with the better lift remaining over New England. That being said, cold advection behind this boundary should keep temperatures on the cooler side of normal by a few degrees on Wednesday.
Wly winds and warm advection will support a 925 MB thermal ridge of 18-20C ahead of the front so temps are expected to reach 75-80F before the frontal passage. The large high pressure area will then gradually shift ewd through the day with height rises aloft. A cooler day is expected with 50s near the lake and 60s well inland.
There were other showers to the north and northwest of the low over central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois. The RAP is showing the 850 mb low moving east of the CWA by 18Z, with the the low level flow turning out of the north.
A somewhat rare pneumonia front (a lake modified cold front) will rush southward from Lake Michigan later tonight, dropping temperatures rather quickly across parts of northern IL. Temperatures overnight look to bottom out at near seasonable values in the low 50s.
The low clouds look to be stubborn over the area today, especially across southeast Kansas which would hamper daytime heating. Fog development would be favored for locations along the back edge of this evening low cloud deck and adjacent areas just to the west of the low clouds.
Key Messages: - Tuesday and Wednesday will be warmer and drier.
The timing for these showers looks to be later in the afternoon with some of the highest chances for PoPs occurring in the Upper Valley and Northern Ranchlands.
325 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Low pressure passing south over WV could bring a brief period of light rain this afternoon and early evening, mainly south of I-70. A moisture-starved cold front will drop south across the region overnight. While no precipitation is expected with frontal passage, cold advection behind the boundary should keep temperatures on the cooler side of normal by a few degrees on Wednesday. Radiational cooling with clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures overnight to drop into the 30s, possibly freezing north of I80. Dewpoints in the lower 20s should preclude any frost formation.
Current temperatures are mostly running pretty similar to 24 hours ago (the exception is the far north end of the Sacramento Valley where readings are 5-10 degrees cooler early this morning) and are mainly in the 40s and 50s in the mountains, and mid 50s to mid 60s across the Central Valley. Upper level ridging will reestablish control this week resulting in dry and warm weather as deeper convection is suppressed. 5k ft), and valley temperatures will return to the lower to mid 90s.
Warm conditions will continue through the weekend with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the higher terrain.
338 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 High pressure will keep conditions dry today. Messy upper ridging with heights in the 570s will hold warmer air in the region, so highs will climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s today and Wednesday. An upper trough and a weak sfc front will move through late Wednesday afternoon from west to east.
Cooler and drier air will begin to filter into the region during the day and into tonight.
217 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Low pressure will track across Kentucky on Tuesday. High pressure will then build in for mid week. A cold front will move through the region at the end of the week. Clouds will likely thicken up late across our southwest ahead of a low pressure system moving toward the Tennessee Valley. Slight cooler and drier airmass will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s Tuesday night.
Southerly flow around that high pressure will continue to aid in bringing moisture to the state. Severe weather is expected to remain on the low side, although, a severe storm or two cannot be ruled out.
201 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Aviation - Cold front drops down from the north Tuesday This feature is shown to be lacking deeper moisture.