Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1143 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 (Today through Thursday) High pressure will continue to settle into South Texas today with northwesterly winds funneling in cooler air. Clear skies tonight will allow for radiational cooling to take place, resulting in much cooler low temperatures. Lows for tonight will be in the 30s for much of South Texas, with the exception of the coast where lows will be in the low 40s. Some locations in the northern Coastal Plains could experience freezing temperatures for a few hours Thursday morning. Thursday's highs will be a few degrees cooler with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s along the coast and Victoria Crossroads to the low 60s further west.
Tonight and Thursday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low pressure moving northeast over the Ohio River Valley. Area webcams show little to no accumulations on the roads so far today, but will keep a mention of slippery spots on bridges and overpasses. The strong cyclone will move across the eastern Great Lakes.
106 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 Water vapor imagery and RAP analyses reveal a weak clipper dropping through MN this morning, and a much stronger low currently over the lower Mississippi valley. Better chances for lake effect/lake enhanced snow showers develop after sunrise as the clipper drops in and phases with the southern system that will by then be moving into the lower Great Lakes. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the central part of the U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad and deep 500 mb trough over most of the U. Expect winds to weaken Thursday back to 20 knots or less as weak ridging moves back over the area.
Southeast flow will veer southwest this afternoon as a cold front approaches east central Florida. Poor and choppy boating conditions with increasing south to southeasterly winds at around 12-20kts ahead of an approaching cold front (up to 25kts in the offshore waters). Chance for isolated showers into the overnight hours over the local waters as moisture continues to increase ahead of a strong cold front that will sag across the area into Thursday. Cloud cover and rain chances will build as a cold front approaches and moves across east central Florida after sunset. TEMPOs for SHRA and MVFR CIGS from MLB/ISM northward with the cold front passage.
1037 AM MST Wed Jan 25 2023 A mid-level short wave trough moving over the northern portion of the forecast area was responsible for snow showers across much of the northwest Colorado plateau as well as the eastern Uinta Mountains and the northern, and portions of the central Colorado mountains. Consequently, boosted PoPs to the 75th percentile of the NBM and raised PoPs further in the higher terrain. Snow chances decrease from west to east during the afternoon in the wake of the short wave trough, though instability and orographics will keep snow going over the northern and central Colorado mountains.
1138 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 Precipitation has tapered off across the Mid-South as the low pressure system continues to move out of the region. In addition, the Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire due to current observations and model trends showing the highest winds west of the Tennessee River. The remainder of today will be cloudy and cool with high temperatures in the low 40s. ANS The low pressure system that brought us wind, rain, sleet, and a little snow will exit the Mid-South by late morning.
150 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday) High winds were primarily contained to areas of higher elevation today; never really reaching their forecasted highs near the ground or the lower parts of our CWA. Winds will gradually continue to shift to the west as the cold front works it's way though the area.
(Tonight through Thursday night) High pressure is in firm control of the forecast through the short term. Clear skies and calm winds will allow temperatures to tumble into the lower to middle 40s across much of the Rio Grande Valley. Meanwhile, much of the Brush Country, Rio Grande Plains, and Brooks/Kenedy Ranches are expected to dip into the upper 30s with a few of the traditionally cooler spots in Kenedy County possibly flirting with freezing for an official low. Clouds increase Thursday as high pressure moves east and advects moisture into the region.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ Northwesterly flow persists across North and Central Texas in the wake of a low-pressure system that has currently pushed off to the northeast towards the Ohio River Valley. Sunny skies will prevail tomorrow allowing for better insolation and slightly warmer afternoon highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Temperatures will trend colder tonight with overnight temperatures in the low-30's areawide. Clearing skies Thursday night along with drier conditions will result in very cold temperatures with overnight lows falling into the low-20's areawide.
Visible satellite shows cloud streamers along the Lower Keys. Temperatures are in the lower 80s along the island chain, with Marathon topping out at 84F and Key West reaching 81F. Dewpoints are in the lower 70s, leading to a warm day in the Florida Keys. After a mostly dry day today, moisture will begin to increase ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold air advection behind this front will allow for a drop in temperatures and dewpoints, bringing some relief from these warmer conditions we have been experiencing. High pressure will build in behind the front, causing the pressure gradient to tighten across the region.
The strong area of low pressure lifts northeast toward the Lake Erie/PA area tonight allowing an area of subsidence to come in and for the widespread system snow to dissipate. Additionally, as a trough/ residual front moves across the area Thursday, some briefly intense areas of snow within an area that the snow squall is highlighting with lake induced areas of instability reaching nearly 100 J/kg with some wind gusts between 15 and 20 mph. With temperatures dropping below freezing Thursday night, we'll have to watch for some slick spots, especially as the lake effect snow is expected to continue into the night and the lake enhanced showers may also do the same for a few hours.
JEH/88 (Now through Thursday) Dry and cool conditions return during the period as the trough and associated cold front that brought the severe weather during the overnight hours last night continues to move well out of the region. As for temps, highs today only expected to get in the upper 50s to low 60s northwest of I-65 where cooler air has begun to move in, with mid to upper 60s southeast. On Thursday, cold air continues to filter into the area keeping highs mainly in the low to mid 50s across the region. Lastly, the only hazards that remain are the High Rip current risk which continues through tonight, and a High Surf advisory continuing through late this evening.
Surface ridging will also set up across the region tonight and, along with mostly clear skies, should allow for temps to drop into the low teens/mid 20s area wide. Tomorrow will continue with the quiet trend as elongated upper troughing will keep surface winds out of the north to northwest with continued, though weak, CAA. This should help keep highs in the low 40s to near 50.
Will continue with low end PoP chances overnight and into Thursday with enhanced PoP/QPF totals along the higher terrain where orographic lift will enhance showers. Accumulations in the mountains and higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau should begin overnight and as temperatures drop to near/below freezing snow could start to make it to the surface in northeast TN and southwest VA.
209 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 A low pressure system will track northeast across the Ohio Valley tonight which will push a cold front through the region and lead to gusty wind and mountain snow showers through Thursday.
Low clouds and a few sprinkles this morning in the wake of yesterday's cold front.
300 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 Winds this afternoon have been northeasterly as a low pressure system rotates over the Ohio Valley. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the central part of the U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad and deep 500 mb trough over most of the U. Expect winds to weaken Thursday back to 20 knots or less as weak ridging moves back over the area.
Only interesting weather to note after 26/00z is that the western half of the Panhandles will get down to the low-to-mid teens with single digit wind chills tonight and tomorrow night.
Visible satellite highlights a land breeze moving across the Lower Keys and Straits of Florida. From synopsis, high pressure will retreat further offshore over the western Atlantic today and tonight, as a cold front pushes east across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and into Florida, with southeast breezes slackening and veering to the south across the Keys coastal waters.
In the northern and central Valley, winds have been light and from the NE due to a strong low level inversion north of a warm front. The midlevel trough axis and surface cold front move through this evening. The falling temps aloft under the trough will create steepening lapse rates for scattered to isolated rain/snow showers tonight, continuing into Thursday.
Look for best/accumulating snow to diminish quickly after 00Z this evening as best omega on the nw side of the low departs. However some scattered light snow showers or flurries will probably linger much of the night within weak mid level deformation zone and moist cyclonic flow on the back side of the low which hangs back over Michigan. It's possible that additional counties will eventually become affected by localized heavier lake snows Thursday afternoon and evening as the low level flow backs.
124 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 A cold front will cross the area this evening. Cold front moving into western GA at 18z. Warm front appears to be across the northern Midlands and Piedmont SC. The cold front moves through the region around 00z-02z.
Cold front expected to push into the state early AM Wednesday will continue to push across the region. particularly across the higher elevations of N.
A cold front passing through the area associated with a long wave trough is bringing gusty winds from the north to northwest from the Palmer Divide down along the I-25 Corridor and the plains. The cold front having passed through, there will be a prevailing northwesterly flow over the region. Behind the frontal passage, tonight will have the low temperatures cooled down to just below seasonal averages in the plains and much colder over the San Luis Valley and over the mountains. Low temperatures tonight into tomorrow morning will be in the lower teens in the plains, negative single digits to the negative teens in the mountains and negative mid teens in the San Luis Valley.
456 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 A low pressure system will exit the Ohio Valley to the east tonight.
Skies will continue to clear through the rest of the afternoon, as temperatures continue to climb into the low 40s and upper 30s across the region. Northwesterly winds will become light and variable overnight, and with the clear skies temperatures will drop into the low to mid 20s. Northwesterly winds will return through Thursday, with highs ranging from the mid 40s to the low 50s, with a continued nudge downwards with forecasted highs due to the last of the remnant snow melting.
Expect gradual clearing skies from west to east overnight, with low temperatures in the lower/mid 30s north of I-10, mid/upper 30s along and south, to near 40 along the coast.
940 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 A low pressure system will exit the Ohio Valley to the east tonight.
527 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) A broad upper trough is over the Midwest and Great Plains early this afternoon.
Drainage areas in the upper reaches of the Nueces River basin and along the San Antonio and Guadalupe River basins could see temperatures fall to near freezing early Thursday morning. A weak short wave trough south of the Four Corners region early Thursday morning will move southeast into the southern high plains Thursday night.
Depending on how much sun breaks through, highs Thursday could be a little warmer or cooler than currently forecast.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Evening/ The low pressure system responsible for yesterday's rain and last night's snow will continue moving northeast towards Ontario tonight. The attendant cold front has pushed well south through most of the Gulf, and good cold air advection will persist across North and Central Texas in its wake. Though the northwest winds will try to hinder radiational cooling, clear skies and dry air will still be in play, leading to sub-freezing temperatures area-wide by daybreak Thursday. Patchy fog is possible in a few of the southeastern counties, and possibly even patchy freezing fog, but at this time it does not appear that it will become dense or widespread enough to cause any impacts other than a light thin glaze on a few windshields.
639 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 A low pressure system will exit the Ohio Valley to the east tonight.
These clear skies will allow for effective radiative cooling overnight, especially so with northwesterly winds advecting cooler, drier air into the region. Highs on Thursday will be a tad warmer than that of today, though still in the 50s area wide.
A cold front is expected to approach the Florida Keys late tomorrow morning.
802 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 A low pressure system will exit the Ohio Valley to the east tonight.
An upper-level ridge will maintain its influence tonight through Thursday.
A deep trough is stretched across most of the country, pushing towards the east coast by tonight. Low pressure in Ohio is moving towards the northeast. Progression of a trough axis and a very weak disturbance from the Upper Midwest will result in a chance of flurries overnight into Thursday, mainly for the eastern half of the forecast area. Despite winds shifting to southwesterly tomorrow night, clearing of skies will allow for lows to drop to the lower half of the 20s with near 20 values in areas with lingering snow cover.
A swath of light to moderate showers associated with a cold front will continue from just west of highway 301 to the offshore waters this early evening. Afterwards, behind the front we can expected much cooler, drier conditions. Mostly cloudy conditions will be present tonight, with breezy winds shifting from SW to NW with the passage of this cold front.
96 (This afternoon through Thursday) High winds were primarily contained to areas of higher elevation today; never really reaching their forecasted highs near the ground or the lower parts of our CWA. Winds will gradually continue to shift to the west as the cold front works it's way though the area.
(This afternoon through Thursday) High winds were primarily contained to areas of higher elevation today; never really reaching their forecasted highs near the ground or the lower parts of our CWA. Winds will gradually continue to shift to the west as the cold front works it's way though the area.
A line of storms associated with a cold front will continue to move onshore through the evening. Behind the front we can expected cooler, drier conditions.
521 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) High pressure is in firm control of the forecast through the short term. Clear skies and calm winds will allow temperatures to tumble into the lower to middle 40s across much of the Rio Grande Valley. Meanwhile, much of the Brush Country, Rio Grande Plains, and Brooks/Kenedy Ranches are expected to dip into the upper 30s with a few of the traditionally cooler spots in Kenedy County possibly flirting with freezing for an official low. Clouds increase Thursday as high pressure moves east and advects moisture into the region.
713 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 The cold front will cross the area early tonight pushing remaining showers out or the area. On Thursday high pressure will build into the region along with cool and dry conditions.
Highs tomorrow will be rather cool (u30s-l40s) due to lingering cloud cover, and with westerly low-level winds expected to remain elevated until late in the day, it will feel a few degrees cooler than indicated. The axis of the increasingly positively-sheared longwave trough will finally cross our forecast area late Friday morning, with a brief period of west-northwest flow aloft providing dry weather and clear skies Friday afternoon/evening.
Deep, open upper-level troughing is occurring over the central CONUS currently. and allows a deep low pressure in the Ohio River Valley to slowly move northeastward. Passing low amplitude ridging exits the region to the southeast Friday evening as an Arctic clipper moves towards the Upper Midwest.
Temperatures have fallen below freezing across the area and we could see some refreezing of moisture on the roadways from earlier snow melt and patches of black ice for the morning commute. Temperatures will remain cold today with highs only from the mid to upper 30s expected and the higher temperatures in the southwest. Lows tonight may be early on in the overnight prior to the southerly winds developing over the area ranging from the low 20s in the northeast to the mid 20s southwest.
The Elkhead and Park Ranges are looking at higher amounts during this 12 hour period, with widespread 4-6 inches, with locally higher amounts possible at the highest elevations.
Winds into Friday look to increase shortly after the passage of the cold front, but don't appear to stick around much after that. Measurable snow (maybe brief freezing drizzle) chances increase west to east by late Thursday afternoon, with increasing winds possibly resulting in blowing/drifting snow impacts by the evening.
1032 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) A broad upper trough is over the Midwest and Great Plains early this afternoon.
A cold front passing through the area associated with a long wave trough is bringing gusty winds from the north to northwest from the Palmer Divide down along the I-25 Corridor and the plains. The cold front having passed through, there will be a prevailing northwesterly flow over the region. Behind the frontal passage, tonight will have the low temperatures cooled down to just below seasonal averages in the plains and much colder over the San Luis Valley and over the mountains. Low temperatures tonight into tomorrow morning will be in the lower teens in the plains, negative single digits to the negative teens in the mountains and negative mid teens in the San Luis Valley. -Riser Key Messages: 1) Dry and warmer at most locations on Friday.
1035 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) High pressure is in firm control of the forecast through the short term. Clear skies and calm winds will allow temperatures to tumble into the lower to middle 40s across much of the Rio Grande Valley. Meanwhile, much of the Brush Country, Rio Grande Plains, and Brooks/Kenedy Ranches are expected to dip into the upper 30s with a few of the traditionally cooler spots in Kenedy County possibly flirting with freezing for an official low. Clouds increase Thursday as high pressure moves east and advects moisture into the region.
Early morning IR satellite imagery is showing a band of cloudiness draped across the Florida Peninsula as the cold front pushes into southwest Florida. The northwest flow will also advect in a significantly cooler airmass, with afternoon highs topping out in the low 60s over the Nature Coast this afternoon, and mid 60s to mid 70s farther south. Lows tonight will drop to near (but not quite) freezing over the Nature Coast, and into the 40s and low 50s over central and southern portions of the forecast area tonight into Friday morning. North winds around 5-10 mph at sunrise will also contribute to the wind chill measuring about 5 degrees cooler than the observed low.
Discussion: A mid/upper level trough will be crossing the area today.
Northwest flow aloft persists into Thursday with breezy northwest winds and temperatures struggling to reach freezing for much of the area. This will further be limited by the existing snowpack across the area, keeping temperatures below freezing. A return of warmer temperatures on Friday as southerly warm air advection occurs.
Northwesterly winds will continue into tonight, driving low temperatures into the low to mid 30s with wind chills forecast in the mid 20s to near 30.
Temps will stay in the low to mid 30s on the Plateau in the morning, so they may see a few tenths of an inch to around an inch of snow at the higher elevations by Thursday late morning. Roads should stay dry west of the Plateau with stronger winds continuing overnight and roads also are expected to stay just above freezing, but if any heavier snow showers develop, some slick spots will be possible. Bridges/overpasses may also see some slick spots west of the Plateau, but better chances for light snow accumulation on roads will be on the Plateau and higher elevations. Temperatures will trend colder tonight with overnight temperatures in the low-30's areawide. Clearing skies Thursday night along with drier conditions will result in very cold temperatures with overnight lows falling into the low-20's areawide.
131 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2023 A cold front tracks east of our area tonight, with gusty winds and mountain snow showers through Thursday.
245 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023 A few sprinkles/snow flurries are continuing in the low level curvature behind our departing storm system. A storm system over the Great Lakes region combines with surface ridging over the deep south to produce what looks like a fairly breezy day Friday with winds out of the southwest. Temps should recover a bit with the low level warm advection into the mid 40s to low 50s.
A stronger clipper low pressure system then takes aim for Thursday into Friday, with non-diurnal temperature swings, a mix of rain and accumulating snow, and windy conditions. A couple other complicating factors involve ground temperatures (will they be cold enough to lead to icy flat surfaces during rain with air temps above freezing) and a flash freeze potential once temperatures drop Friday morning.
(Today through Tonight) Dry weather, cooling temperatures, and clearing skies will be in place today as high pressure settles in over the region following the frontal passage.
The latest short term guidance- HRRR, RAP13 and HREF- favor a slightly warmer solution, with 12Z temps in McCurtain county, for instance, near or just below freezing. That being said, a brisk morning is in store areawide, followed by a day of sunny skies with highs in the low to mid 50s. High temperatures Thursday are aiming for the low to mid 50s, with a touch of upper 40s in the northern fringe of McCurtain County, OK.
239 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023 A quiet pattern will perpetuate the end of the week and weak ridging will begin to build in. Low level wind flow will remain mostly out of the northwest today which will counter some of the ridging this afternoon. Additionally, there is a weak upper level disturbance coming into the CWA ahead of the ridge which will keep the clouds rather thick as well. Tonight, the winds will begin to shift to the southwest as the mid and upper ridging will continue to build.
1216 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2023 (Through Thursday) As today's cold front exits the area, the associated upper level trough is expected to progress eastward across the eastern conus. Fortunately, the axis of the trough is not expected to push as far south as the northern Gulf Coast, but will remain quasi-stationary across the Mid-Atlantic states and across the Tennessee River valley. Behind the cold front tonight, lows will drop into the upper 30s across the region as cold air advection continues through the overnight hours. (Thursday night through Friday night) Zonal flow resumes aloft with high pressure building in at the surface. Lows both Thursday and Friday nights will be in the lower to middle 30s, though elevated winds Thursday night will make it feel like the 20s.
An additional 2-4 inches of snow is expected along portions of the ridges through Thursday night due to upsloping. Broken area of showers continues to cross ahead of a cold front. Enough deep moisture and orographic lift will prompt additional accumulation along the ridges.