Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In the upper levels, a broad anti-cyclone was rotating over the Northern Plains, while a diffuse high pressure pattern was analyzed at the surface. Weak mid-level lapse rates (with the subsident influence of the ridge aloft) as well as light winds through the upper levels have effectively eliminated the severe thunderstorm threat, though lightning and brief periods of heavy rain will still be hazards under any thunderstorm today and this evening. The upper high will shift around but generally remain centered over the region, keeping the overall pattern of above normal temperatures with daily chances for diurnal convection going.
Most of the CAMs show a relative minima of activity, so we continue to run the highest PoPs and QPF in the afternoon, but will message in a more NOWcast mindset of some elevated higher amounts of QPF in the early parts of the short-term. We do still anticipate pockets of Heavy convection, but coverage should be trending down on the higher amounts.
Temperatures will max out in the low 70s today. An upper level low pressure system will move onshore across southern California on Monday.
152 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 (Today and tonight) The axis of an upper level trough will be centered over the region by this afternoon coupled with broad cyclonic flow and associated differential cyclonic vorticity advection across the area will provide some forcing for ascent during the afternoon and evening hours once daytime heating has reached its peak.
We will see even drier air funnel over the area through today as the low level flow holds in from the NE, and we see mostly sunny skies promoting deep mixing. Winds will likely pick up some with the gradient tightening near the low due to diurnal pressure patterns of the land/lake interface. The upcoming week will be dominated by a large upper level low situated off eastern Canada. The models are in fair consensus on the strength and timing and location of this low. What this will mean is cooler, nearer to normal, temperatures. As the large upper level low cycles, it will bring short to long wave troughs across the region.
Winds are generally light and variable or light from the southeast, and temperatures are warming through the 80s, and in some places into the low 90s.
Some of the lower layer depictions in the HRRR smoke model show a signal, but regional and upstream observations show no visibility issues and impacts in lower troposphere should be minimal. The long range will be characterized by a broad and amplifying trough over the northeastern United States. Lobes of vorticity are modeled to occasionally rotate around the main trough axis and through our region.
A back door cold front will drop temperatures back into then 80s later in the week with diminishing chances for rain.
205 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Seasonably warm conditions will persist through early this week before slightly cooler air builds in midweek and beyond.
1022 mb high pressure continues to be centered across northern lower Michigan. A surface cold front dropping down from the north is expected to spread a mid-level deck of clouds across the region after midnight. Band of moisture associated with a southward moving cold front Monday will deteriorate greatly with southward extent.
1211 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Bottom Line up Front: Moisture axis will shift to the south and west putting the higher risk for heavy rain in the southwestern portions of the CWA.
149 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Upper level analysis shows a mid/upper level high centered over southwestern Manitoba with largely southeasterly flow aloft. At the surface, southeasterly flow dominates with a corridor of dew points in the low 60s to upper 50s stretching through western SD into northeastern WY. The upper high will slowly retrograde southwestward over the coming days, resulting in warm and drier conditions.
A blocking pattern over the Canadian Prairies has made the US look more like spring than June. The Florida Keys are at the base of a mid to upper-level trough axis, in fact, we measured an anomalously low 500 mb height of 579 dm, which is a record min for the date. The closest supra 590 dm height is in the Dominican Republic, highlighting the equatorward displacement of the subtropical ridge. SFC winds range from southeast at 5 to 10 knots across the Upper Keys, to northwest near 15 knots across the Lower Keys.
Temperatures will be above average today, then cooler weather returns. High pressure over the area is peaking today with temperatures becoming the warmest today. Normally these temperatures are not a big deal this time of year but we have been fortunate having cooler than normal temperatures this late in the season. Peoples bodies are still adjusting to the warmer temperatures. A low pressure area currently well southwest of the area and off the coast of Southern California is also moving closer to the Southern California coast today.
315 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 High pressure will persist into Monday.
117 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Slow moving low pressure will meander around the New England area and adjacent Atlantic coastal waters through much of the week. Cooler and mostly dry weather is anticipated. High pressure will keep the near term dry with clouds dissipating as dry air aloft mixes to the surface. Upper low will continue to wobble and deepen through the short term as the core of the system goes from MA coast to Nova Scotia. Moisture starved short wave troughs will rotate around the west side of this low toward the region, but little more than some cu coverage is anticipated.
At 9 AM MDT upper low was centered over Great Salt Lake with cloud bands wrapping around the low's northern and western flanks in Idaho. Latest models take the weakening upper low northward through Idaho today/tonight and western Montana Monday toward a larger trough in western Canada.
Otherwise, temperatures are on track to top out in the lower to middle 90s inland with upper 80s near the immediate coast.
205 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 An upper low over the Northeast will keep temperatures near to below normal for early June. An upper low centered near the Gulf of Maine will continue to influence our CNY/NEPA weather through tomorrow night. Our eastern zones will experience clouds on the periphery of the low into this evening, then partial clearing. Temperatures will be below average for the time of year as cooler air is reinforced on northerly winds. shower chances will increase as the broad upper low retrogrades slightly and spins energy and deeper moisture around the system. Scattered showers seem plausible, although QPF should be on the light side as there is still dry air in the lower atmosphere to overcome.
A blocking pattern begins to set up tomorrow as low pressure moves into the western US and a low sits over New England. Temperatures will remain just shy of seasonal with highs in the low 90 and overnight lows generally in the low 70s.
Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 60s with calm and variable winds.
Patches of high- to mid-level clouds are expected to move in from the north late tonight into Monday ahead of a very weak (and dry) surface cold front, with winds turning more northerly behind it.
(This evening through Monday Night) Looking at water vapor imagery and the RAP 500MB analysis, one sees a mid/upper pattern featuring modest ridging over the Four Corners region while troughing dominates over the U. However, a more subtle mid/upper trough over eastern Texas is keeping the mid/upper flow quite light and somewhat variable. But some locations could struggle to warm past the low 80s if cloud cover remains resilient. More clouds and a cooler lower atmosphere would also tend to inhibit convection.
720 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Cooler and drier air will move in behind a cold front through Monday.
The storms will continue another hour or so, mainly in the areas that are warmer and have a bit of CAPE left. The higher chances will be west with highs in the 80s and 90s. 5 inches look to focus across the western portions of the area tomorrow where weak troughing over the Lower MS Valley may contribute to a more typical picture of scattered showers and storms during the heat of the afternoon.
718 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 An upper low over the Northeast will keep temperatures near to below normal for early June. An upper low centered near the Gulf of Maine will continue to influence our CNY/NEPA weather through tomorrow night. Our eastern zones will experience clouds on the periphery of the low into this evening, then partial clearing. Temperatures will be below average for the time of year as cooler air is reinforced on northerly winds. shower chances will increase as the broad upper low retrogrades slightly and spins energy and deeper moisture around the system. Scattered showers seem plausible, although QPF should be on the light side as there is still dry air in the lower atmosphere to overcome.
645 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 High pressure remains situated over the Northern Plains with a trough over the Northeast/east coast and another one over the west coast. Better coverage exists over western Kansas where the higher precipitable water axis is located.
659 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 An upper low over the Northeast will keep temperatures near to below normal for early June. An upper low centered near the Gulf of Maine will continue to influence our CNY/NEPA weather through tomorrow night. Our eastern zones will experience clouds on the periphery of the low into this evening, then partial clearing. Temperatures will be below average for the time of year as cooler air is reinforced on northerly winds. shower chances will increase as the broad upper low retrogrades slightly and spins energy and deeper moisture around the system. Scattered showers seem plausible, although QPF should be on the light side as there is still dry air in the lower atmosphere to overcome.
628 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 The broad high pressure will continue to push westward through the short term period as north-northwesterly flow begins to establish aloft.
1031 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Cooler and drier air will move in behind a cold front through Monday.
609 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 (This evening through Monday Night) Looking at water vapor imagery and the RAP 500MB analysis, one sees a mid/upper pattern featuring modest ridging over the Four Corners region while troughing dominates over the U. However, a more subtle mid/upper trough over eastern Texas is keeping the mid/upper flow quite light and somewhat variable. But some locations could struggle to warm past the low 80s if cloud cover remains resilient. More clouds and a cooler lower atmosphere would also tend to inhibit convection.
725 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Surface ridging continues to dominate the weather across Southeast Michigan this evening.
Otherwise, another typical warm early June night is expected with lows in the low to mid 60s.
Augustine nearshore buoys measured about 8 ft waves this evening which prompted the high surf advisory. As the high builds, an inverted trough over the coastal waters will move south. Lows Tonight will range from the low to mid 60s inland, to around 70 at the coast.
A fairly stable weather pattern is forecast to continue with a large scale high pressure ridge over the central US that is acting to block any eastward progressing low pressure systems over the western US. A fairly active subtropical jet between 20 to 30 degrees north is forecast to bring another low pressure system into the west coast to effect Nevada later in the week. A weak upper level low currently situated over northwest UTAH/northeast Nevada is forecast by the ensemble system and the deterministic models to lift northward into Idaho on Monday and continue a track into the panhandle of Idaho by late Monday. For northeast and central Nevada a weak upper level high pressure ridge is forecast over the area on Monday.
Temperatures on Monday will be a little cooler as a result of the increased convective coverage with highs ranging from the mid 80s along the coast to the lower 90s inland.
632 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Slow moving low pressure will meander around the New England area and adjacent Atlantic coastal waters through much of the week. Expect and increase in smoke coverage in the higher levels of the atmosphere this evening, as smoke from the fires in Quebec is making its way southward. Upper low will continue to wobble and deepen through the short term as the core of the system goes from MA coast to Nova Scotia. Moisture starved short wave troughs will rotate around the west side of this low toward the region, but little more than some cu coverage is anticipated.
RH values are still in the low 30 percent range across much of central Indiana but those should gradually come up with the overnight cooling. Lows in the low to mid 50s still look reasonable with the light winds and dry airmass in place. Some of the lower layer depictions in the HRRR smoke model show a signal, but regional and upstream observations show no visibility issues and impacts in lower troposphere should be minimal. The long range will be characterized by a broad and amplifying trough over the northeastern United States. Lobes of vorticity are modeled to occasionally rotate around the main trough axis and through our region.
952 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Seasonably cooler and drier air will be here for much of the upcoming week. Clear skies across all of central PA this evening with temps falling off into the 50s under clear sky with light winds and dewpoints in the lower to mid 20s in some areas. Elsewhere mins will range through the 40s except perhaps the urban areas of the southeast where temperatures could level off in the low 50s. Medium range guidance shows a deepening upper trough over the NE CONUS into the upcoming week, likely resulting in cooler than average temperatures for early June. The trough axis along with the bulk of rainfall looks likely to remain east of PA.
Winds will be light and out of the northwest with lows in the low to mid 60s.
435 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Upper level analysis shows a mid/upper level high centered over southwestern Manitoba with largely southeasterly flow aloft. At the surface, southeasterly flow dominates with a corridor of dew points in the low 60s to upper 50s stretching through western SD into northeastern WY. The upper high will slowly retrograde southwestward over the coming days, resulting in warm and drier conditions.
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Seasonably cooler and drier air will be here for much of the upcoming week. Dry air and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s everywhere tonight, except perhaps the urban areas of the southeast where temperatures could level off in the low 50s. Medium range guidance shows a deepening upper trough over the NE CONUS into the upcoming week, likely resulting in cooler than average temperatures for early June. The trough axis along with the bulk of rainfall looks likely to remain east of PA.
The prevalence of clear skies led to the attainment of daytime high temperatures in the lower 90s at Key West International Airport and Marathon International Airport. According to the 3-hour Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS), the area with the highest precipitation was between mile markers 94 and 97, with a total of 1.
1029 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Seasonably warm conditions will persist through early this week before cooler air builds in for midweek and beyond.
Throughout the afternoon, the mid-level trough, in addition to diurnal convection, will continue to impact convective development on southern FL into the evening hours. The mid-level trough is on it's way out of the region and with a more zonal flow, there will be drier air and much less moisture.
803 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 An upper level low will persist over the New England states and keep the Mid Atlantic cooler than normal for the next couple days.
749 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Seasonably warm conditions will persist through early this week before cooler air builds in for midweek and beyond.
242 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Really, not a whole lot of overall change to the forecast though there will be some nuance details that will change as the upper high drifts closer to the area, with a subtle ridge axis overhead today which means a slightly less supportive overall environment for weak convection.
Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to be limited again today with the best chances in the vicinity of the vort lobe across north central Texas and within the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas. Afternoon temperatures have consistently been below model blends the past couple of days so went with a slightly cooler solution though overall highs will be notch warmer than what we experienced over the weekend.
(Today and tonight) Overall, not a lot has changed in the last 24 hours with the forecast area remaining along the periphery of an upper level ridge centered over western New Mexico and a weak upper level trough extending from western Oklahoma to central Texas. It is difficult to pinpoint anything specific that will trigger storms today, but there remains channeled vorticity along the interface between the ridge and trough, low level upslope flow from northeast to east surface and near-surface flow that could focus some initiation orographically, and the potential for a linger outflow or two from showers/storms from last evening's and overnight convection could all come into play. Will hold with the lower NBM PoPs heading into the evening hours, but if storms that form are as efficient at redeveloping along outflow interactions as yesterday, those PoPs will be too low.
401 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Higher coverage of cirrus has arrived over southeast Michigan this morning ahead of a cold front moving across northern Lake Superior and south central Ontario. Developing northerly surface flow through the afternoon will help draw cooler lake air to the lakeshore locations and keep daytime highs more in the mid 70s range. The eventual arrival of the surface cold front through southeast Michigan will come tonight.
Should be at least a few degrees warmer today with less in the way of widespread cloud cover expected.
Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows a somewhat messy trough over the region, with several circulations/vort maxes embedded within a general cyclonic pattern. At the surface, weak ridging along the Gulf coast was yielding a light and variable wind pattern.
1153 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 High pressure remains situated over the Northern Plains with a trough over the Northeast/east coast and another one over the west coast. Better coverage exists over western Kansas where the higher precipitable water axis is located.
A pre-frontal trough axis extending southwest from it should shift a bit further southeast as well. This pre-frontal trough axis will help to focus higher dewpoints and better instability near it later this afternoon. 0 degree/km low level lapse rates, SBCAPE between 2000 and 3000 J/KG, DCAPE values over 900 J/KG near the pre-frontal trough axis around 21Z.
117 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 High pressure will persist into Monday.
142 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Slow moving low pressure will meander around the New England area and adjacent Atlantic coastal waters through much of the week. High pressure continues to ensure dry conditions once again through the period. Upper low will continue to wobble and deepen through the short term as the core of the system goes from MA coast to Nova Scotia. Moisture starved short wave troughs will rotate around the west side of this low toward the region, but little more than some cu coverage is anticipated.
257 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 * Very dry air will remain across central Indiana * Potential for smoke to mix down to the surface Central Indiana will remain in between an upper high over central Canada and an upper low across the northeastern USA. At the surface, high pressure will remain in control. Will trend toward the cooler guidance, but there may be some error in areas where smoke is thinnest.
500 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 08Z sfc analysis shows weak low pressure over Kentucky south of a large area of high pressure through the northern Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, temperatures are fairly uniform through the area - generally in the low and mid 60s, though some of the valleys are reporting upper 50s. They all depict the expanding 5h closed low trough to the northeast sending height falls into Kentucky today and tonight.
1122 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 (This evening through Monday Night) Looking at water vapor imagery and the RAP 500MB analysis, one sees a mid/upper pattern featuring modest ridging over the Four Corners region while troughing dominates over the U. However, a more subtle mid/upper trough over eastern Texas is keeping the mid/upper flow quite light and somewhat variable. But some locations could struggle to warm past the low 80s if cloud cover remains resilient. More clouds and a cooler lower atmosphere would also tend to inhibit convection.
318 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 An omega blocking pattern remains in place through the period resulting in upper level high pressure being situated right over the Northern Plains. Highs are projected to be a little cooler in the west and this will probably limit shower and thunderstorm coverage to be isolated in nature, with the southwest seeing little to nothing.
Zonal westerly flow aloft remains over the most of the peninsula this morning atop N/NE boundary and low-level flow south of high pressure extending down the E Seaboard to a weak frontal boundary analyzed across the N/Central peninsula.
So with the higher instability and shear for today, hail up to 1.
1220 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 The broad high pressure will continue to push westward through the short term period as north-northwesterly flow begins to establish aloft.
152 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Cool conditions will persist over the next several days, with an upper level trough in place across the region.
Water vapor and infrared satellite imagery shows that most of the low level clouds have cleared out with some mid and upper level clouds beginning to stream in from the west due to a broad upper level trough across the western and central Gulf of Mexico.
1128 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Cooler and drier air will move in behind a cold front through Monday.
352 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Unseasonably cooler and drier air continues to affect the area today.
436 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Slow moving low pressure will meander around the New England area and adjacent Atlantic coastal waters through much of the week. High pressure continues to ensure dry conditions once again through the period. The upper low will continue to wobble and deepen through the short term as the core of the system goes from MA coast to Nova Scotia. Moisture starved short wave troughs will rotate around the west side of this low toward the region, but little more than some cu coverage is anticipated for much of the area.
A well defined low pressure circulation tracking northward through southern Idaho continues to be observed on water vapor satellite loops. By this afternoon, shower and isolated thunderstorm activity associated with the closed low pressure circulation is expected to spread eastward from north central Idaho to most of western Montana. Models suggest that the closed low pressure will become an open wave (low pressure trough) and move northeast into Canada this evening.
Thus expect mostly dry conditions again overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s.
1159 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Surface ridging continues to dominate the weather across Southeast Michigan.
342 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 A mid to upper level ridge will continue to persist over the Plains, causing a high pressure to stay over the Northern Plains over the next couple of days. After looking at a couple of models, they show a weak low pressure system moving southwest into southern Kansas, which could help the forcing for hit or miss storm development.
130 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Seasonably warm conditions will persist through early this week before cooler air builds in for midweek and beyond.