Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile the upper level ridge axis over the region will move eastward ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Fair skies and light winds tonight should allow overnight lows to dip into the low to mid 50s. Friday will see increasing high cloud cover and highs in the low to mid 80s ahead of the approaching upper level trough.
Much cooler temperatures this weekend with increasing confidence in frost/freeze headlines. The cold front was located from just west of Camdenton to just west of Springfield to near Cassville in Barry county. The front will begin to slow down and then stall out just east of the area early this evening as flow becomes more parallel with the front, with the upper trough still well to the west. Highs will be cooler on Friday with readings only expected to get into the mid to upper 60s. Once the upper trough shifts east of the area, the stronger cold air advection will develop over the area, sending much colder air into the region.
(The rest of this afternoon ) The main forecast concern today will be for severe weather across southeast OK and northwest AR as an advancing cold front provides lift in an unstable and moderately sheared environment. Moisture values in the lower atmosphere are near the 95th percentile for this time of year according to the EPS climatology ahead of the cold front. Areas behind the front, including northeast OK will remain mostly sunny and breezy as somewhat cooler but also much drier air moves in. Low temperatures will be much cooler than last night, ranging from the low 40s in northeast OK to the low 50s in southeast OK and west-central AR. Breezy northwesterly winds will strengthen over the area Friday as cooler and dry air continues to spill into the area.
1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Through today: We are currently monitoring the fog potential for the lower Pine Belt region where return flow has initiated stratus formation. The second round of convection will feature the main cold front and could be a little more robust as stronger deep layer shear, forcing, and instability exist.
Cloud cover may also start to increase across Northwest Alabama as a cold front approaches from the west.
A cold front is surging southeast and will move into South Texas tonight. A cold front moving through Central Texas will move near our CWA later tonight and into Friday. The biggest question regarding Friday is how far south the cold front will progress.
352 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Line of severe storms has developed just ahead of a cold front and will move across the central Illinois this evening, with the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and possible tornadoes; mainly west of I-57. A secondary cold front then swings through Friday night, bringing much colder temperatures and the potential for widespread frost over the weekend. Severe storms have developed ahead of the cold front that is forecast to move into and through the CWA this evening. Cooler temps will also move into the region.
104 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected today into Friday with high pressure.
A secondary cold front then swings through Friday night, bringing much colder temperatures and the potential for widespread frost over the weekend. Cold front is approaching I-57 this evening, where instability was already quite muted due to previous convection. Severe storms have developed ahead of the cold front that is forecast to move into and through the CWA this evening. Cooler temps will also move into the region.
928 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 (Issued 928 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023) The cold front will exit the area to the east shortly, with southwest to west winds bringing cold air advection into the area, along with lower dewpoints. Low pressure will lift by just to the northwest during this time frame, with southern Wisconsin solidly in the warm sector of this system. With a cold front approaching from the west, thunderstorms are likely, with a potential for hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Decreasing clouds are expected overnight, with a cooler and breezy day on Friday.
636 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 An upper trough will be moving closer to our area through Friday and will bring a round of storms and a cold front to end the week. Relatively weak boundary layer winds with cyclonically curved but small hodographs indicates low level storm relative helicity will be only marginally supportive for low level mesocyclone formation but mesoscale/intrastorm interactions could allow for brief tightening of lower level circulations and so a brief tornado or two can't be totally ruled out. Tonight, lows fall into mostly the lower 60s F with a few areas in eastern Mississippi dropping into the upper 50s F where the surface moisture will have not recovered as well as further west and skies may remain somewhat more clear.
Breezy northerly winds will linger in the southern Colorado River Valley today as the surface pressure gradient relaxes and a high- pressure ridge sets up over the Eastern Pacific.
There will be also be some activity in southeast Montana closer to the center of the low. The showers will generally short-lived, Winds have been breezy this afternoon, with gusts in the upper 20s to lower 30s, but these winds will be decreasing through the evening as the low starts to move out into the plains. Reimer Northwest flow on the leading edge of a broad trough across the Pacific Northwest enters the picture for this weekend.
Wedged between weak high pressure off the southern California coast and broad trough energy over the central U.
Mid level moisture spreading over an offshore ridge will keep skies mostly cloudy for the northern portion of the forecast area tonight through Friday. The lower portion of the atmosphere, below 925-850mb, has been fairly dry today but should moisten up some tonight.
659 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will move across the Mid-South tonight as a cold front pushes into the region.
Surface cold front will pass through from west to east overnight. -Strong Thunderstorms Possible This Evening A cold front will be pushing in from the west this evening. Deep layer shear ahead of the front is progged to climb up over 35 knots for much of the CWA with the highest values over northwest locations topping out at around 50 knots.
Upper level ridging will build east and extend over the region into the weekend and week ahead with drier weather conditions and gradually warmer temperatures.
652 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Line of severe storms has developed just ahead of a cold front and will move across the central Illinois this evening, with the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and possible tornadoes; mainly west of I-57. A secondary cold front then swings through Friday night, bringing much colder temperatures and the potential for widespread frost over the weekend. Severe storms have developed ahead of the cold front that is forecast to move into and through the CWA this evening. Cooler temps will also move into the region.
601 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Upper low spinning over the Northern Plains will swing a trough from from the Rockies onto the plains. This pushed a cold front into the area this morning with a gusty N wind and blowing dust. As of 19z the front could be seen on radar moving out of the Southern Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos. Will be cooler after the front.
An increase in moist, gradient flow over portions of the Southeast will help keep temps on the warmer side tonight, with lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s.
Large upper level low pressure system over the shores of British Columbia at 800 PM MDT. 3-6 inches of snow will be possible across the lower mountain valleys in Central Idaho from tonight through Friday night.
819 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected into Friday with high pressure.
High pressure ridge axis remains north of the area through late week. Lows will be in the 60s tonight, with highs on Friday in the low 80s along the coast to mid 80s across the interior.
A cold front arrives on Friday bringing the chance for rain into Friday night. Cooler air returns for the weekend behind the cold front. Cooler air will start to work into far northwestern portions of the forecast area at the end of the near term and some locations could drop into the upper 40s. A cold front will slowly be progressing across the area from northwest to southeast on Friday before stalling around southern Ohio Friday afternoon. A more widespread area of precipitation is expected with the low moving across the southeastern portion of the area. Winds shift to the northwest behind the front bringing cooler air into the area. An upper level trough will pivot east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley over the weekend.
552 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected into Friday with high pressure.
Currently - A high cell off the Carolina coast extends a ridge that reaches along the northern Gulf coast. Mesoscale influences such as outflow boundaries and increasing confluence has allowed a few showers to pop through the low level inhibition, resulting in a few showers and one or two short lived thunderstorms. Dry air through the mid and upper level will continue to flow through our area around the western periphery of an upper level trough/low centered just north of the Bahamas. A ridge across the far southeastern United States will result in gentle to moderate easterly breezes through the overnight period.
806 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected into Friday with high pressure.
729 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather pattern through Friday.
620 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 (The rest of this afternoon ) The main forecast concern today will be for severe weather across southeast OK and northwest AR as an advancing cold front provides lift in an unstable and moderately sheared environment. Moisture values in the lower atmosphere are near the 95th percentile for this time of year according to the EPS climatology ahead of the cold front. Areas behind the front, including northeast OK will remain mostly sunny and breezy as somewhat cooler but also much drier air moves in. Low temperatures will be much cooler than last night, ranging from the low 40s in northeast OK to the low 50s in southeast OK and west-central AR. Breezy northwesterly winds will strengthen over the area Friday as cooler and dry air continues to spill into the area.
744 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Dry high pressure and above normal temperatures will continue through Friday.
655 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 South-southwesterly winds will continue to be rather gusty (40 to 45 mph) late this afternoon in advance of an eastward advancing cold front. Otherwise, the main weather story into early this evening is the severe thunderstorm threat in advance of the cold front. The severe thunderstorm threat will come to an end from west to east this evening as the surface cold front shifts across the area. While we cannot rule out a few isolated instability driven afternoon light showers or sprinkles, the boundary layer will be very dry, with surface dewpoints likely to mix out into the lower 30s.
A strong upper low will continue bringing windy, wintry weather to the forecast area through Friday evening. This afternoon, an upper low that was placed over northwest North Dakota is in the process of expanding and shifting to move over northern Minnesota, where it is expected to strengthen tonight. The general progressed expected, illustrated well in the latest high- res runs, is for this area of precipitation to expand west and sink south through the forecast area as the upper low becomes more established to our east. This weekend, the upper low moves over the Great Lakes region and stalls, leading to cyclonic flow persisting over the forecast area.
702 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 (This evening through Friday night) High pressure will dominate the upper level pattern tonight.
Modest amplification is the upper levels means an upper-level trough is expected to propagate eastward to the north of Florida.
(The rest of tonight) Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue within 850mb frontal zone stretching across far southeast OK into west central AR, with main upper trough axis to the west generating sufficient lift to sustain this activity for a few more hours at least. Eventually the frontal zone will push farther east with convection finally ending after midnight as cooler, drier air spreads southeast. Low temperatures will be much cooler than last night, ranging from the low 40s in northeast OK to the low 50s in southeast OK and west-central AR. Breezy northwesterly winds will strengthen over the area Friday as cooler and dry air continues to spill into the area.
747 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Aviation -Strong Thunderstorms Possible This Evening A cold front will be pushing in from the west this evening. Deep layer shear ahead of the front is progged to climb up over 35 knots for much of the CWA with the highest values over northwest locations topping out at around 50 knots.
705 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather pattern through Friday.
330 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023 High pressure will slowly lift away to the northeast Friday into Saturday.
Otherwise, the cold front is still off to our far W along I-20 back in the DFW metro.
123 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023 A warm front will lift across the region tonight with increasing clouds and a spot shower or two possible near the International Border after midnight. Much warmer temperatures return on Friday with developing southerly winds.
Today through Saturday night A longwave trof is in place over much of the U. Nevada will remain on the backside of the trof in NW flow.
As a trough deepens across the northern US, broad southerly flow across the state will set up today and Saturday.
This theme will continue tonight with below average low temperatures and relatively light winds regaining more of a northerly component as the next cold front approaches on Saturday morning.
It will be noticeably cooler in the wake of a cold front with highs today mostly in the 50s.
Surface cold front will pass through from west to east overnight. -Strong Thunderstorms Possible This Evening A cold front will be pushing in from the west this evening. Deep layer shear ahead of the front is progged to climb up over 35 knots for much of the CWA with the highest values over northwest locations topping out at around 50 knots. especially eastern zones might be clipped with some rain Saturday as a mid level wave digs in from the west and catches up to the low level baroclinic zone. We will maintain the highest POPs for Lansing in Jackson. - A cool weekend in store for the area Cold air advection takes over behind the front for Friday as westerly winds usher in a much cooler air mass.
Some good news is that the low temperatures through the weekend are trending warmer. Perhaps a freeze threat is a lower concern?! It is still a few days out, so will have to watch guidance over time and see if this warmer trend continues. Around 05-06Z another cold front will pass through western Kansas turning the winds more to the northeast and brief gusts are possible behind the front.
This is due to steering flow aloft that has continued from the southwest ahead of troughing that is more elongated/zonal in shape, somewhat reducing the forward speed/progression of the boundary. That said, cloud decks will gradually clear from north to south through the rest of the afternoon, allowing for temperature maximums ranging in the lower and upper 70s.
337 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 An area of low pressure was located over the Arrowhead of Minnesota. A large dry slot with clear skies was noted on GOES IR imagery to the south of the low, encompassing all of Iowa and NW Illinois. Key Messages: *Cool temperatures today with gusty west winds *Freeze Watch in effect for approximately the NW half of the outlook area tonight Today: A cool and dry post-frontal air mass will be in place across the Upper Mississippi Valley region with highs locally reaching the low 50s NW to low 60s SE. Freezing temperatures (mainly in the lower 30s) are possible roughly along and northwest of a line from Freeport to Iowa City to Memphis. The Freeze Watch may be upgraded to a Freeze Warning later today if confidence increases on lows at/below freezing.
A cold front is surging southeast and will move into South Texas tonight. A cold front moving through Central Texas will move near our CWA later tonight and into Friday. The biggest question regarding Friday is how far south the cold front will progress. As for temps, lows tonight will be in the lower 70s, above normal. High temps on Friday will be warmer than normal, mainly in the 90s.
1214 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 (The rest of tonight) Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue within 850mb frontal zone stretching across far southeast OK into west central AR, with main upper trough axis to the west generating sufficient lift to sustain this activity for a few more hours at least. Eventually the frontal zone will push farther east with convection finally ending after midnight as cooler, drier air spreads southeast.
A dry northwest flow will remain over Arizona through Saturday with breezy and warmer afternoons.
1222 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Upper low spinning over the Northern Plains will swing a trough from from the Rockies onto the plains. This pushed a cold front into the area this morning with a gusty N wind and blowing dust. As of 19z the front could be seen on radar moving out of the Southern Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos. Will be cooler after the front.
It will be noticeably cooler in the wake of a cold front.
- Cold temperatures at or below freezing tonight, a freeze warning has been issued Midnight through 9 am Saturday. - Record cold freezing temperatures forecast for Saturday night.
1248 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 South-southwesterly winds will continue to be rather gusty (40 to 45 mph) late this afternoon in advance of an eastward advancing cold front. Otherwise, the main weather story into early this evening is the severe thunderstorm threat in advance of the cold front. The severe thunderstorm threat will come to an end from west to east this evening as the surface cold front shifts across the area. While we cannot rule out a few isolated instability driven afternoon light showers or sprinkles, the boundary layer will be very dry, with surface dewpoints likely to mix out into the lower 30s. The core of the upper low will begin weakening while drifting east from Wisconsin on Saturday. With the upper low traversing overhead during the day, scattered diurnally-enhanced rain showers will likely produce some mixing with snow.
(Today through Saturday Night ) H500 trough will continue to progress eastward across the area today. Sfc cold front will progress out of the state with some occasional rain/thunderstorms expected to develop and lift north across roughly the southeast half of the state today. Sfc ridging will build in from the northwest on Saturday which will provide some well below normal temperatures to the state along with dry conditions for a short time.
Tonight and Tomorrow night will see sub-freezing and hard freeze temps.
Later today through tonight, as the low progresses eastward, dry air at the mid layers looks to push in while the gradient starts to lessen. Upper low stalls to our east Saturday lingering cloudy and cool conditions, with highs in the 30s to lower 40s.
A cold front arrives on Friday bringing the chance for rain into Friday night. Cooler air returns for the weekend behind the cold front. A cold front will slowly be progressing across the area from northwest to southeast on Friday before stalling around southern Ohio Friday afternoon. A more widespread area of precipitation is expected with the low moving across the southeastern portion of the area. Winds shift to the northwest behind the front bringing cooler air into the area. An upper level trough will pivot east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley over the weekend. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs in the lower 50s to the lower 60s. The winds do decrease, but with the clearing skies and low temperatures in the lower to mid 30s, there may be some patchy to areas of frost in sheltered locations.
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the night along and east of a cold front extending from Gainesville to Salem. Much cooler temperatures this weekend with increasing confidence in frost/freeze headlines. The cold front has stalled over the eastern portion of the forecast area this evening, with showers and storms continuing to develop along and east of the front. The front is expected to begin moving eastward again tomorrow as the main upper level trough moves across our region. Once the upper trough shifts east of the area, the stronger cold air advection will develop over the area, sending much colder air into the region. Saturday will be well below normal for highs, which are expected to range from the low 50s in the north to the low 60s in south central MO.
There is sufficient shear for some thunderstorms with strong updrafts and large hail, and if the warm front can get into the Southern Fox Valley, a wind potential as well. The convective activity should exit the region by late evening as a cold front goes by. Scattered rain and snow showers are possible across central and Northcentral Wisconsin Friday as jet energy rotates around the upper low over Northern Minnesota.
Surface and upper level lows will remain over the MN Arrowhead today, but SCT-NMRS rain/snow showers will make a push into the northwest half of the forecast area later this morning and afternoon. This will occur as a secondary cold front and short- wave trough move in from the west, accompanied by wrap-around moisture. Highs temperatures will range from the lower to middle 40s northwest to the lower to middle 50s east. The upper low will shift east into the forecast area tonight and Saturday. On Saturday, numerous rain/snow showers will return with the upper low overhead and cyclonic northwest flow at the surface.
(Today and tonight) A rather pleasant day is expected across the area today, as light northerly winds and cooler temperatures prevail. Highs this afternoon will range from the low to mid 70s across the Big Country, to the upper 70s and lower 80s along the I-10 corridor.
Clear today with warmer temps this weekend, highs 60s along the coast, upper 70s inland.
Unsettled conditions today will give way to a brief drying and warming trend for Saturday under developing high pressure. Given that the apex of the ridge sets up over coastal Washington, this will keep the Northern Rockies under northwesterly flow during this "dry" period, which could actually mean that cloud cover will linger and not all locations will see a completely dry day, especially for higher terrain.
A closed low moving into southern BC will continue to move east this morning, with a band of steady precipitation exiting north Idaho around 7-8 am. A short wave ridge moves over the region tonight into Saturday for dry weather except for a few mountain showers as a weak warm front passes through.
713 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023 High pressure will slowly lift away to the northeast Friday into Saturday.
An area of low pressure was located over the Arrowhead of Minnesota. A large dry slot with clear skies was noted on GOES IR imagery to the south of the low, encompassing all of Iowa and NW Illinois. Key Messages: *Cool temperatures today with gusty west winds *Freeze Watch in effect for approximately the NW half of the outlook area tonight Today: A cool and dry post-frontal air mass will be in place across the Upper Mississippi Valley region with highs locally reaching the low 50s NW to low 60s SE. Freezing temperatures (mainly in the lower 30s) are possible roughly along and northwest of a line from Freeport to Iowa City to Memphis. The Freeze Watch may be upgraded to a Freeze Warning later today if confidence increases on lows at/below freezing.