Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Awaiting arrival of the deep, cold trough to our north.
850 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 High pressure will modify while extending across the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through the end of the week. However, as the continental airmass continues to undergo moderation, tonight's low temperatures are expected to be anywhere from 7 to 12 10 degrees warmer than what was observed this past morning. Overnight lows in the 40s, with some upper 30s in the typically cooler locations. A strengthening upper level ridge will continue to shift east with the main axis over Central NC Wednesday. High pressure anchored over the region will influence the region again, but by Wednesday afternoon light winds will be from the south/south east. Whiles skies will be mostly clear on Wednesday there is another chance for the development of low status and fog Wednesday night with increase moisture in the lower levels.
512 PM MDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Current surface analysis shows one cold front south and east of the region, with a stronger Canadian front nearly stationary right now from northeast to southwestern MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over the far southwest US, with another low over southern British Columbia.
This is thanks to low-level ridging centered near the Mid-Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level ridge axis extending from the Gulf of Mexico through the Great Lakes.
506 PM MDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Showers associated with a northeastward propagating mid-level short wave trough have mostly dissipated across the San Juan Mountains and southern Uncompahgre Plateau this afternoon. In fact, the forecast area is expected to remain dry as the trough in the southern stream pushes off to the east on Wednesday while the system in the northern stream approaches, but stays just northwest of the area at 12Z/Thu. There is a slight chance that snow showers could break out over the higher reaches of the eastern Uinta Mountains late Wednesday night ahead of the storm.
742 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas for much of the week.
(Through Wednesday) Ridging continues to build aloft over the southeast, high pressure remains dominant and anchored over the Carolinas. Expect overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s with daytime highs in the low to mid 80s.
703 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 (Tonight) Broad high pressure will remain over the mid-Atlantic region through the overnight hours.
A similar story continues this morning and throughout the day today as a ridge of high pressure associated with a 1029mb high continues its grip on our weather. Combining with a weak coastal trough, clouds and light showers will continue to stream onshore from time to time this morning and through the afternoon with slightly more low level moisture today as compared to Tuesday.
However, high pressure will generally dominate the weather pattern through the end of the workweek. A cold front with several waves of low pressure will bring a more widespread potential for showers this weekend. A rinse and repeat pattern for most of this week as strong mid-level ridging and high pressure remains over the area. A few weak disturbances will try to ride the edge of the ridge. Another disturbance will move through our region on the edge of the ridge Wednesday night. Cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer Wednesday night as well, only falling into the 50's.
By late morning and afternoon most if not all of the area will be dry with temperatures warmer than normal.
The low and associated cold front of this winter storm sweep through during the overnight areas, with a polar air mass settling in behind. Afternoon highs will go from around 50 degrees F today in the lower elevations to lower 40s for those same locations on Thu. After the front clears an area, strong wind is expected, 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts from the west, so mainly felt in the lower Snake River valley and the eastern Magic Valley. As skies partially clear Thu night, temperatures should get below freezing nearly everywhere, with single digits in Stanley Basin and other alpine basins.
151 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High pressure will modify while extending across the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through the end of the week. However, as the continental airmass continues to undergo moderation, tonight's low temperatures are expected to be anywhere from 7 to 12 10 degrees warmer than what was observed this past morning. Overnight lows in the 40s, with some upper 30s in the typically cooler locations. A strengthening upper level ridge will continue to shift east with the main axis over Central NC Wednesday. High pressure anchored over the region will influence the region again, but by Wednesday afternoon light winds will be from the south/south east. Whiles skies will be mostly clear on Wednesday there is another chance for the development of low status and fog Wednesday night with increase moisture in the lower levels.
Discussion: Ridging from the surface through the upper levels will dominate the region today and tonight leading to continued dry weather. Low RH's are expected again today as a result, mainly across northeast Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and the higher terrain of the East Tennessee mountains.
1149 PM MDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Showers associated with a northeastward propagating mid-level short wave trough have mostly dissipated across the San Juan Mountains and southern Uncompahgre Plateau this afternoon. In fact, the forecast area is expected to remain dry as the trough in the southern stream pushes off to the east on Wednesday while the system in the northern stream approaches, but stays just northwest of the area at 12Z/Thu. There is a slight chance that snow showers could break out over the higher reaches of the eastern Uinta Mountains late Wednesday night ahead of the storm.
Overnight lows should remain fairly mild near 60 degrees, slightly warmer where there is persistent cloud cover west of the Mississippi River. CAD Much warmer than normal temperatures will continue across the Mid-South through the weekend as an upper level high pressure system prevails across the southeast U. A cold front will stall north of the region late this week and bring the return of rain chances mainly for areas north of Interstate 40.
A large anticyclone centered over the Eastern US controls the sensible weather elements across the Florida Keys this morning. The lowest layers of the atmosphere are moisture laden due to the boisterous winds, which supports widely scattered spritzes of very light rain.
Unsettled, breezy and cooler weather will stick around much of this week, with even colder and windier conditions for the coming weekend. The longwave trough over southern Arizona and northern Sonora begins to lift into New Mexico today.
116 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High pressure will settle across the Carolinas through midweek, with warm southwesterly flow allowing for above normal temperatures to evolve locally through the remainder of the workweek. The regional-scale surface pressure pattern has not changed much, with broad high pressure still dominant along the East Coast.
Warm weather will continue across the Mid-South through the weekend as an upper level high pressure system continues to amplify. A cold front will stall late this week and bring the return of rain chances mainly for areas along and west of the Mississippi River. (Today through Tuesday) A 586 dam ridge will continue to bring above normal temperatures to the Southeastern United States. An upper level low continues to churn near the United States and Mexico border and will continue to intensify the ridge. This system will begin its short track northeast to the Southern Plains and slightly flatten the ridge. As the system weakens the ridge, showers may creep into northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee ahead of an advancing cold front.
Much of this is brought on by the tight pressure gradient between approaching low pressure to the west and high pressure located over the ern Gulf of Mexico. The low pressure center over the Baja Peninsula will continue its trek to the northeast into west Texas tomorrow morning as it broadens out into an open wave.
Currently, we have one trough leaving our area with another trough sliding in this afternoon.
1025 PM MDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Current surface analysis shows one cold front south and east of the region, with a stronger Canadian front nearly stationary right now from northeast to southwestern MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over the far southwest US, with another low over southern British Columbia.
617 AM PDT Wed Oct 25 2023 A low pressure system to the north will bring stronger onshore flow through tonight with gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts. It will be cooler for today and Thursday.
Expect high temperatures in the eighties across the lower deserts with overnight lows mostly in the fifties under clear to mostly clear skies.
A low pressure system with an accompanying cold front will pass through the region from this morning into early Thursday morning. Aloft, a 45 kt 700 mb jet will pass overhead in the afternoon, so there's a 90% chance Sierra ridges will gust 75-85 mph. Watch out for slick roads Wednesday evening, especially where the temperature is expected to go below freezing.
718 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 A similar story continues this morning and throughout the day today as a ridge of high pressure associated with a 1029mb high continues its grip on our weather.
526 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 (Today through Thursday) 500 mb low pressure over northwest Mexico will gradually work northeast into the Great Lakes region and degrade into a trough, as 500 mb high pressure over the northeast Gulf of Mexico lingers in that location and becomes elongated.
High temperatures in the low to mid 80s are expected today and Thursday.
The well-mentioned upper low that has been to our west the last few days will pivot northeast today. Quiet and warmer weather returns Thursday under sunny skies with highs mostly in the 80s.
409 AM PDT Wed Oct 25 2023 A low pressure system to the north will bring stronger onshore flow through tonight with gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts. It will be cooler for today and Thursday.
/KVP/ High pressure centered just to the east will keep flow southerly and temperatures much above normal, as much as 10-15 degrees F. Moisture return should be meager as moisture axis will be focused over Texas, while easterly flow in the low levels will be mostly dry.
As the sun rises this morning expecting this lower deck to affect more of the area, but eventually scattering out later this afternoon and evening before clearing out overnight again.
The main cold frontal band currently extends southwest to northeast across southwest Oregon into northern Klamath County, with precipitation mainly at moderate intensity. High pressure will nudge into the area late tonight into Thursday morning, with a much colder, stabilizing air mass and partly to mostly cloudy skies due to low and mid level clouds. Lows on Thursday are forecast to range from the lower 40s at the coast, upper 20s to upper 30s for the inland west side, and mainly in the teens for the Cascades and east side.
This stratus will impact high temperatures today, thus trended conservatively with cooler guidance to account for this and lowered high temperatures around 2 to 5 degrees. A cold front begins to move in Thursday, where we will see quite a temperature spread for highs, as temperatures across the northern Sandhills are expected to only reach the mid 30s to low 40s, while areas that remain south of the front on Thursday will see highs reaching the 50s.
The low is expected to deepen as the trough transitions to negative tilt. Unfortunately, the ridge over the gulf will keep the trough too far north to influence us. That ridge is expected to stay over us through the end of the week and keep the weather mostly benign. Thursday will be much of the same as today as the ridge remains in place.
The radar is showing the line of showers/storms to be a bit more widespread and faster than many of the high-resolution models/CAMs would have suggested, so we may look to increase POPs and/or adjust timing in the near term.
(Today through Thursday) As the ridge continues to dominate the pattern, there will not be much change in the weather over the next two days from what we saw today. Moisture availability will stay in the low levels as high pressure/subsidence keeps the thick dry layer lingering in the mid and upper levels. Temperatures on both days are expected in the mid to upper 80s for highs and the 60s for overnight lows, except in the low 70s along the east coast.
709 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 (Today through Thursday) As the ridge continues to dominate the pattern, there will not be much change in the weather over the next two days from what we saw today. Moisture availability will stay in the low levels as high pressure/subsidence keeps the thick dry layer lingering in the mid and upper levels. Temperatures on both days are expected in the mid to upper 80s for highs and the 60s for overnight lows, except in the low 70s along the east coast.
High pressure remains well in control over the SE U. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) High pressure begins to break down near the end of the week and into the weekend, with a frontal boundary expected to draw near to the area over the same timeline.
Some upward vertical velocity within this low stratus layer may be present, so drizzle may also happen.
Winds across this CWA will become south-southeasterly with some warmer temperatures possible. The HREF, as well as other hi res models indicate the potential for a brief period of freezing rain and sleet before changing over to all snow.
Tonight and into Thursday, a strong upper trough currently over Northern Mexico will eject northeast into Kansas by daybreak and into the Midwest by late afternoon. Another band of showers and thunderstorms should develop from Oklahoma into Texas tonight and will gradually move eastward as the trough ejects. With the upper trough rapidly weakening, large scale forcing will be decreasingly as the precip arrives. CN (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Beginning Thu Night, upper level ridging will remain anchored across the far Southeast U. with broad troughing across the Intermountain West and the Pacific Northwest.
However, high pressure will generally dominate the weather pattern through the end of the workweek. A cold front with several waves of low pressure will bring a more widespread potential for showers this weekend. Quite an inversion is present this morning of about 20 degrees between ridgetop and valley. A rinse and repeat pattern for most of this week as strong mid-level ridging and high pressure remains over the area. A few weak disturbances will try to ride the edge of the ridge. Another disturbance will move through our region on the edge of the ridge Wednesday night. Cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer Wednesday night as well, only falling into the 50's.
For the TN Valley, this means that southerly return flow at the surface will increase surface moisture content as dew points rise into the 50s, a welcome change! High temperatures were bumped up a few degrees into the low to mid 80s to account for current forecast trends.
Much of the daytime hours today will be dry with cooler, but still seasonably mild temps. The HREF indicates the higher probabilities for 1" or more (50-70%) mainly south of I-90 tonight through Thursday with lower probabilities (10-30%) for at least 2". Additional hydro concerns would be lessened if the highest amounts do occur south of I-90 where soils could take more rain.
This weather event is expected to persist, with the cold air advancing south and westward and additional waves of moisture ejecting from the main low-pressure center in Washington. Once the low-pressure system moves into the region tonight, the focus for snow will shift to north-central Idaho and Lemhi County, continuing into southwest Montana. Some model solutions suggest over 3 inches, depending on the track of the low-pressure center.
645 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 Warm weather will continue across the Mid-South through the weekend as an upper level high pressure system continues to amplify. A cold front will stall late this week and bring the return of rain chances mainly for areas along and west of the Mississippi River.
A mix with freezing rain today along the I-94 corridor today remains a concern due to uncertainty in the extent of a warm nose extending into the 850-700 mb layer there.
625 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 (Today through Thursday) High pressure overhead will keep the area in a southeasterly flow for the next 2 days.
1043 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High pressure promotes quiet and unseasonably mild weather through Thursday. Main change this update was to drop dew points a bit further today, especially over the higher terrain. A high pressure system will remain in control of the weather today and tonight, providing unseasonably mild weather. Even so, some mid to high clouds will effect the region as an upper air disturbance combines with some blow off from a cold front located northwest of the area. Soundings show very dry air in the low levels that the mixing height should reach this afternoon. Therefore, went on the lower side of guidance with afternoon dewpoints, as the models usually struggle with this scenario.
Higher rainfall rates are possible from elevated PW levels as gulf moisture is advected northward, though the highest rainfall rates are expected to stay to the south of our area.
513 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High pressure dominates, promoting quiet and unseasonably mild weather through Thursday. A high pressure system will remain in control of the weather today and tonight, providing unseasonably mild weather. Even so, some mid to high clouds will effect the region as an upper air disturbance combines with some blow off from a cold front located northwest of the area. Soundings show very dry air in the low levels that the mixing height should reach this afternoon. Therefore, went on the lower side of guidance with afternoon dewpoints, as the models usually struggle with this scenario.
From synopsis, a potent high pressure system centered over the eastern United States will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east breezes through the weekend.
2 inches is unlikely (below 20%) anywhere but the highest elevations of Humboldt and Del Norte Counties. As a significantly drier and cooler air mass settles over the region Wednesday night, widespread frost is likely to form in the interior. These areas are much more uncertain with NBM placing a 40 to 60% chance of freezing conditions. A freeze watch has been issued for these areas reflecting the higher uncertainty and likely higher temperatures. Areas with more marine influence, especially the northerly oriented parts of the Klamath valley, will most likely stay above freezing. Similarly, areas further south will see less cold air advection and stay above freezing.
We will remain locked in a moisture heavy southwesterly flow in the low levels, which will be filled with weak disturbances and lift from from a LLJ and pockets of WAA. While an isolated storm cannot be ruled out, conditional lapse rates due to the high moisture content will not make for a large variety of particle types for charge separation.
To finish out the work week, high pressure will result in quiet weather across the region. The next chance for widespread showers will be this weekend when a cold front moves through. These showers should wrap up by around sunrise Thursday morning with quiet weather expected through Thursday thanks to high pressure.
This moisture layer is shallow though, confined below 850 mb, beneath the Wrn periphery of the stout upper ridging anchored over the Cntrl and Ern Gulf and the SE Gulf Coast states. The latest short term progs maintain a dry forecast today, as much of the convection should remain confined well to our W from Cntrl OK S into Cntrl/WCntrl TX ahead of the upper trough extending from Wrn NM into Nrn Old MX that will enter far W TX by early evening. 15Z temps are also running 1-3 degrees warmer than what was observed 24 hrs ago, and with the expectations that cigs should lift and even scatter out over some areas. Have maintained VCSH mention for TYR/GGG/TXK after 13Z, before they become more scattered during the afternoon as the primary upper trough lifts NE away from the area.
(This evening through Thursday) High pressure will remain to the east of the state with south to southeasterly flow through the short term.
A secondary low pressure system is moving through the region bringing widespread snow showers, primarily from the Mission valley southward through central Idaho and West central/Southwest Montana this evening through Thursday.
332 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High pressure will modify while extending across the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through the end of the week. Esely flow around the base of the mid-level ridge has led to the development of scattered stratocu over our southern Coastal Plain areas. The mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico will largely remain anchored on Thursday setting up similar dry and warming temperatures. However, a bit more cirrus will likely spill across our area during the day as the mid-level ridge starts to shunt a little further south compared to Wednesday. Increasing subsidence under high pressure will promote another dry day. Overnight fog and stratus will once again be favored for those south and east of Raleigh, as overnight lows dip into the lower 50s.
High pressure remains in place over much of the Mid Atlantic, with the forecast area on the southern fridge of the high. Expect these conditions to persist through the next 24 hours at least, though there may be brief lulls in the higher winds overnight. Upper ridging will dominate the pattern through the next few days, keeping temperatures similar each day. Though moisture will remain plentiful, rain chances will be on the low side and dependent on mesoscale features. Otherwise, from synopsis, a potent high pressure system centered over the eastern United States will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east breezes through the weekend.
High pressure to the north of us will maintain a mild northeasterly flow across the Forecast Area advecting low cloudiness from off the ocean.
Warmer temperatures aloft will preclude rain chances, and some breaks in the clouds should get us up to a steamy day in the low-80s.
Sub-freezing overnight temperatures likely with the potential for frozen precipitation. The good news is that this wave is the trough the was positioned over the desert SW CONUS.
A 594 dam ridge, currently centered over the Florida coast, will continue to drive our weather pattern through at least Thursday evening keeping us warm and rain-free area wide.
In those three counties, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for freezing rain, potentially with a glaze of ice on the roadways, and light snow. However, models are starting to come into agreement that the more likely solution is a relatively weak frontogenetic band of snow, perhaps with light freezing rain on the southeastern leading edge, orientated from the southwest to northeast. Thursday is when more synoptically driven widespread snow occurs across the forecast as a potent trough lifts through the region. This may start out as rain and/or freezing rain before converting to all snow in the evening.