Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Despite the low center being well east across western WI, gusty northwest winds remain in place across the CWA at this hour, strongest across the east. As the low continues east and high pressure noses in from the northwest, winds will be on the decrease from west to east through the rest of the day and into the night. However, the broken stratus deck should remain in place, complicating tonight's low temperature forecast (warmer temps with more clouds) and maintaining the potential for flurries mainly across the eastern CWA. Warmer conditions move into the region thereafter, as an upper- level ridge builds in and an incoming low pressure system helps establish a southerly return flow from west to east through the day Monday. The period starts of with a ridge aloft moving into and across the Plains.
755 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Clear and cold conditions are expected for the Mid South tonight and these cooler conditions should continue through at least mid week.
649 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 (This evening through Monday) Cool conditions will continue tonight into Monday as surface ridging continues to build southward, maintaining northerly winds across the region.
A cold front is gradually moving south across north Florida and will continue its southward progress into the day on Monday. The next organized low pressure system will not arrive until at least Sat. (00Z TAFS) VFR continue before a cold front with SHRA/TSRA begin to impact DAB/SFB after 08z-09z.
CN (This evening through Monday Night) Surface and upper-level ridge to build across the region tonight allowing for gradual sky improvement areawide. At the surface, high pressure to continue to build across the region with north winds up to 10 mph prevailing tonight into Monday. Cooler temperatures expected with highs on Monday in the upper 50s to lower 60s while lows both tonight and Monday night range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.
Though temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s tomorrow ahead of the front, cooler temperatures are expected through mid week. During the overnight hours into tomorrow, an upper level trough is forecast to continue dig into the Eastern U. , and its associated cold front will push across the Florida Peninsula.
510 PM MDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Snow showers have increased in coverage across most of the high country this afternoon, and should continue through the evening and early overnight hours tonight. An additional inch or two of snow is possible on favored terrain through midnight tonight, and a couple of slick spots will be possible for travelers across the higher elevations. Low temperatures should fall into the 20s across the plains with cooler temperatures for the high country. We should see the start of a warming trend on Monday as ridging begins to build into the area.
The combination of a low to mid level cyclone approaching the western Great Lakes, another deep cyclone over the western North Atlantic and flat ridging well south over the Caribbean Sea has brought strong zonal westerlies overhead the Keys, with a west wind at 100 knots calculated at 208 mb. Flow between the surface features and the cold front advancing through the Southeast U. Boaters should be prepared for less clearance under fixed bridges. Southwest breezes will freshen on Monday as another low pressure system deepens east of the Eastern Seaboard.
The cold front responsibile for this activity will move southeast of the region late this morning. High pressure will build to the northwest in the afternoon with a gradual trend toward VFR conditions.
The primary closed upper low will be pivoting through the region today, and this forcing, along with that from a cyclonically curved upper level jet streak, and development of a quite well and deeply- mixed PBL, which will come along with up to a few tens of joules of upright instability, will promote the development of scattered snow showers, particularly from mid morning into tonight, peaking around the mid afternoon to early evening hours. Snow squall parameter is fairly strongly positive across much of the area during this time, particularly across the northeast closest to the upper low, although a classic Arctic front setup is not exactly what is in store. Given the expected persistence of cloud cover and precipitation, blend temperatures appear too warm today, and were nudged toward the lower end of the guidance envelope.
216 AM MDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Satellite imagery showed an upper ridge axis through the intermountain Rockies with high cloudiness trying to encroach from the mountains into the high plains. Wind gusts above 9000 ft in the high country may push 70 mph as well tonight into early Tuesday as nose of upper jet pushes into the region from the west. Speaking of the high country, mid level flow will back to the SW later today starting a period of Pacific moisture streaming into our high country.
104 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 (Tonight) Cold air advection is ongoing across the region in the wake of a cold frontal passage earlier today.
Likewise, Monday's highs will be bit cooler in the 20s. Southerly flow will commence early Tuesday, strengthening into Tuesday night as thermal ridging builds into the Northern Plains.
The frontal boundary is well to our south this morning and high pressure is expected to build in from the northwest through the day. This should lead to clearing skies and cooler daytime highs. Later tonight, temperatures will fall near or below freezing for much of the Central AL. Locations along and south of I-85 could remain just above freezing, though not by much. Winds will stay up tonight instead of going calm, which could lead to wind chills well below freezing area-wide, with our northern locations hitting wind chills as low as 20 degrees. Needless to say, the freezing conditions tonight will be the biggest impact - preventative measures should be taken to protect vulnerable people, plants, and animals.
343 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 A coastal low pressure system will strengthen rapidly into a major nor'easter and bring winter weather impacts to portions of Central Pennsylvania tonight through Tuesday.
A mix of mid and high level clouds today with sfc ridging well north and west of our region will result in cool to mild temperatures today with afternoon temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 50s north to the lower to middle 60s near and south of the I-20 Corridor. Couple this with increasing mid level moisture from the northwest and these two variables may tend to offset freezing temperatures overnight across our extreme northern zones. 13 (Tuesday Night through Monday) High pressure on the surface of 1029mb will edge from N MS into KY/TN by daybreak with a frosty north with mid to upper 30s and low to mid 40s elsewhere.
A cold front currently nearing the MS River will cross our area Monday morning, pulled along by an upper low situated over the Great Lakes. Wrap around moisture from the low to our north, and northwesterly flow will keep light rain/mixed precip chances in the East TN mountains and portions of SW VA.
An upper-level trough will bring below normal temperatures and dry weather to the Mid-South through mid-week.
South central Canadian based high pressure influences will build southward across eastern contiguous U. Lows tonight will be below freezing for entire mid state region. Eastern portions should reach freezing temperatures late this evening, central portions by 1 AM CDT, and locations approaching TN River Valley by 2 PM CDT. Freeze watch will continue for western and central portions through 9 AM CDT Tuesday morning with eastern counties not expected to get above freezing until 10 AM CDT.
254 AM MDT Mon Mar 13 2023 An upper level ridge will be over the central Rockies today along with a relatively weak westerly flow aloft. Over the urban corridor and northeast plains, it will be dry and warmer. High temperatures today will warm back into the lower 50s in Denver, slightly below the normal of 55. Clearing tonight with the ridge axis shifting over CO. Strong warm advection will occur Tuesday as an upper level ridge axis shifts east across the region. 700 mb temperatures will warm to 2-3C, which combined with downslope flow and lee troughing should support high temperatures into the lower 60s over most of the plains.
Lows should drop well below freezing although there should be too much cloud cover for ideal cooling conditions. Tuesday the ridge axis stays mostly parked in the area with some lingering low clouds and very light low level cold advection.
Temperatures will remain cold today and Tuesday with highs in the lower to middle 30s. An upper low was over southeast Wisconsin and was moving southeast. The low should track southeast across the northern part of the forecast area and bring additional snow today. While surface temps have dipped a little below freezing early this morning in some areas, RWIS pavement temps were 32-34F over northwest Indiana and near the Michigan border. Some of the high res models pick up on a single band on the east side of Lake Michigan which could be a rather prolific but more local snow producer tonight. Temperatures will remain cold today and Tuesday with highs in the lower to middle 30s. Dry but very chilly air will be over the area Tuesday in the wake of the upper low that will move through today.
130 AM MDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over the Great Lakes with ridge building into the Rockies. At the surface, ridge extends through the Dakotas. Upper ridge building in from the west will result in dry weather and warmer temps the next few days. Temps will warm into the lower 40s from northeast WY into southwest SD, but remain in the 20s/30s over much of the western SD plains. Surface trof moves through on Tuesday, with thermal ridge overhead and downslope flow resulting in some readings into the 60s south and east of the Black Hills.
355 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Below normal temperatures and periodic snow showers can be expected through midweek as an upper low transitions over the northeast. Once the upper low exits, snow shower activity will quickly cease. The locations most likely to see more significant snow shower activity is over the ridges of SW PA and N WV. Outside of the ridges, activity looks to be much less as inversion levels lower and drier air at the lower levels spills in from the west.
1256 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Below normal temperatures and periodic snow showers can be expected through midweek as an upper low transitions over the northeast. Once the upper low exits, snow shower activity will quickly cease. The locations most likely to see more significant snow shower activity is over the ridges of SW PA and N WV. Outside of the ridges, activity looks to be much less as inversion levels lower and drier air at the lower levels spills in from the west.
At the surface, cool high pressure will build across the Quad State through Monday night and then settle overhead late Tuesday and Tuesday night. A minor disturbance rotating around the upper low this evening could produce some sprinkles or very light rain, mainly over the northern half of the region. As the cold advection continues, the low-levels will eventually get cold enough to potentially develop some sprinkles or flurries out of the remaining low clouds across the region Monday afternoon and night. Winds will finally become light Tuesday night and that should lead to the coldest temperatures of the week with lows in the lower and middle 20s.
1229 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) The cold front has moved across the area this morning with northerly wind noted at all sites behind it.
The synoptic snow with the low will diminish this afternoon and so we won't change the end time of the Winter Weather Advisory. Colder air will flow into the cwa behind the low and lake effect snow will develop as h8 temps fall to -14c.
The zonal flow pattern over the region the past several days will give way to some amplification of a ridge of high pressure aloft on Tuesday.
Partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures are expected through Tuesday with enhanced snowmelt and runoff continuing this week. A stronger trough will cross the region midweek with rain, high elevation snow, and windy conditions. A weak trough in the westerly flow moving over northern Arizona today has triggered scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms generally north of Interstate 40. Clear skies this evening will allow for temperatures to drop below freezing above around 5500 feet tonight. Another weak trough will brush northern Arizona on Monday with scattered showers and possible thunderstorms mainly north of Interstate 40. A much larger trough of low pressure moves on the West Coast on Tuesday with increasing southwest winds for northern Arizona.
1149 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) Today will be cooler than yesterday thanks to a cold front that has slipped into the region, becoming defuse along the Pecos River.
Thicker cloud cover over the far southeast Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains will keep highs in the low 50s, about 10 degrees below normal area wide. Lows in these areas are expected to drop just below freezing with most other areas in the mid-30s.
1143 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Clear and cold conditions are expected for the Mid South tonight and these cooler conditions should continue through at least mid week.
Snow showers have increased in coverage across most of the high country this afternoon, and should continue through the evening and early overnight hours tonight. An additional inch or two of snow is possible on favored terrain through midnight tonight, and a couple of slick spots will be possible for travelers across the higher elevations. Low temperatures should fall into the 20s across the plains with cooler temperatures for the high country. We should see the start of a warming trend on Monday as ridging begins to build into the area. Upper level ridge will build over the Central Rockies Monday night and Tuesday.
(Today) An unseasonably cold day is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure continues to build in from the north.
More impactful storms are expected later today as a broken line descends southward ahead of a cold front.
114 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Cool High pressure will build into the region Monday and remain the primary feature through the end of the week. There's enough cold advection in wake of a cold front to get lows down to 45-50 degrees far inland, lower and middle 50s closer to the coast. Temperatures will cool, but with plentiful cloud cover around lows are only expected to bottom in the mid to upper 40s inland and the low to mid 50s along the coast. By daybreak Monday, low pressure and an associated cold front will be offshore and moving away from the region.
Moderate breezes are expected to prevail today as a low to mid level trough marches east across the Great Lakes region keeping the pressure gradient tight with the ridge centered over the southern Caribbean. These breezes will be somewhat short-lived as the earlier mentioned cold front will sink closer to our forecast area and slacken winds.
Even with cooler air in place and persistent nrly winds, temperatures have crept up where sky conditions have cleared. H500 cyclone will progress E/SE across the Great Lakes toward New England which will provide N-NW flow across the state. At the same time, sfc ridging will spill south across much of the central into eastern portions of the US. This will provide well below normal temperatures to the area through mid-week, including near to below freezing temps across at least the northern half of the state during the overnight into the morning hours.
1101 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 (This evening through Monday) Cool conditions will continue tonight into Monday as surface ridging continues to build southward, maintaining northerly winds across the region.
Tuesday ushers in southerly flow that'll strength into Tuesday night as thermal ridging build into the Northern Plains.
1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 (This evening through Monday) The cold front from yesterday continues to linger across eastern New Mexico and south into the Permian Basin with east to northeast winds across much of the forecast area. Thus temperatures today are cooler with highs in the 50s to lower 60s, which is nearly 20 to 30 degrees colder than yesterday. Several models show a scant amount of moisture, therefore the precipitation chances were limited to 15 percent given the low probability of any measurable precipitation. However, low temperatures are expected to generally be in the 30s and a few areas may approach freezing. Tomorrow, temperatures will remain cooler in the 50s with a few high clouds and southeast surface winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Cooler weather continues early this week with overnight lows in the lower 20s.
(Today through Tuesday) A cold front is stretched across northern Mexico west of our CWA this morning. Cooler, drier air has moved in behind the front. Temperatures are five to 15 degrees cooler. Temperatures will be cooler especially over the south and west where temperatures were well above normal yesterday. Some places will be near 15 degrees cooler today. The low level flow will keep temperatures down below normal.
415 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Key Messages: * Cooler temperatures will continue across the region through today with highs ranging from the mid-30s to the low 40s.
Otherwise, saturation in the lower levels had resulted in fog across southwest Colorado as of 03Z/Mon. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a transitory ridge will be over the forecast area today. Flow backs to the southwest on Tuesday as a mid-level long wave trough approaches the West Coast.
We dropped to a very cold -15 this March morning in Bismarck, with high pressure and no wind and clouds.
651 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 We dropped to a very cold -15 this March morning in Bismarck, with high pressure and no wind and clouds.
South central Canadian based high pressure influences will build southward across eastern contiguous U. Lows tonight will be below freezing for entire mid state region. Eastern portions should reach freezing temperatures late this evening, central portions by 1 AM CDT Tuesday morning, and locations approaching TN River Valley by 2 AM CDT Tuesday morning. Freeze watch will continue for western and central portions through 9 AM CDT Tuesday morning with eastern counties not expected to get above freezing until 10 AM CDT.
618 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 (Today through Tuesday) A cold front is stretched across northern Mexico west of our CWA this morning. Cooler, drier air has moved in behind the front. Temperatures are five to 15 degrees cooler. Temperatures will be cooler especially over the south and west where temperatures were well above normal yesterday. Some places will be near 15 degrees cooler today. The low level flow will keep temperatures down below normal.
A line of showers is pushing southward ahead of an approaching cold front.
This afternoon, an upper level trough axis and associated cold front will move onshore, then move slowly inland through this evening producing enhanced precipitation rates as it passes overhead.
Skies will begin to clear overnight and temps will drop back below freezing mainly along and north of I-40. The general consensus is low level winds will continue to veer and increase from the south across this area resulting in increased WAA and a subtle warm nose, with temps at the surface at or just below freezing. Forecast soundings also indicate the same, suggesting freezing rain where precip rates are lower (WNW OK) and some snow within the highest rates (likely far SW OK). A glaze of ice could develop on elevated surfaces through early Tuesday AM but temps should climb above freezing fairly quickly late Tuesday AM as precip chances shift east with the wave and come to an end across south central OK Tuesday afternoon (just rain there).
544 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 (Today) An unseasonably cold day is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure continues to build in from the north.
850 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Below normal temperatures and periodic snow showers can be expected through midweek as an upper low transitions over the northeast. Once the upper low exits, snow shower activity will quickly cease. The locations most likely to see more significant snow shower activity is over the ridges of SW PA and N WV. Outside of the ridges, activity looks to be much less as inversion levels lower and drier air at the lower levels spills in from the west.
Key Messages: * Cooler temperatures will continue across the region through today with highs ranging from the mid-30s to the low 40s.
accumulating snow will come to an end from northwest to southeast early this morning as a vertically stacked low pressure system will exit into Lower Michigan. Highs look to be a little warmer than today, climbing into the upper 20s to middle 30s.
As the low exits a period of lake effect snow is expected this afternoon and through tomorrow with the heaviest snow expected in the western half of Van Buren county. The synoptic snow with the low will diminish this afternoon and so we won't change the end time of the Winter Weather Advisory. Colder air will flow into the cwa behind the low and lake effect snow will develop as h8 temps fall to -14c.
535 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Below normal temperatures and periodic snow showers can be expected through midweek as an upper low transitions over the northeast. Once the upper low exits, snow shower activity will quickly cease. The locations most likely to see more significant snow shower activity is over the ridges of SW PA and N WV. Outside of the ridges, activity looks to be much less as inversion levels lower and drier air at the lower levels spills in from the west.
Partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures are expected through Tuesday with enhanced snowmelt and runoff continuing this week.
Moisture continues to stream into NorCal on westerly flow beneath the large trough off the PacNW.
637 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 An upper-level trough will bring below normal temperatures and dry weather to the Mid-South through mid-week.
451 AM MDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over the Great Lakes with ridge building into the Rockies. At the surface, ridge extends through the Dakotas. Upper ridge building in from the west will result in dry weather and warmer temps the next few days. Temps will warm into the lower 40s from northeast WY into southwest SD, but remain in the 20s/30s over much of the western SD plains. Surface trof moves through on Tuesday, with thermal ridge overhead and downslope flow resulting in some readings into the 60s south and east of the Black Hills.
A gradual continued relaxation of the high latitude blocking across Canada will lead to the development of a northern branch of the flow. Precipitation during the period will result primarily from a strong cyclone crossing the region late in the work week into the upcoming weekend. Models are also indicating ridge axis over central and north-central Wisconsin late tonight. Latest guidance numbers are a few degrees warmer than the previous forecast. Tuesday Night Through Monday The pressure gradient will be tightening across the area Tuesday night as the center of the cold anticyclone begins to pull away to the east.
These clouds are expected to move in over the next few hours into the afternoon then gradually move back northeast as the low pressure system causing these clouds continues to move eastward through the Great Lakes region and high pressure begins to filter into our area from the West.
329 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 A coastal low pressure system will strengthen rapidly into a major nor'easter and bring winter weather impacts to portions of Central Pennsylvania tonight through Tuesday.
The low-level ridge axis extends west across Cuba to just south of the Isle of Youth. A cold front preceded by a line of thunderstorms is across Central Florida. This front is attached to a deepening low pressure system east of North Carolina. With the approaching front combined withe the intact ridge to our south, southwest winds now average 9 to 16 knots at the marine observation platforms. Temperatures range from 80 to 87 along the island chain, with dewpoints in the lower 70s.