Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, still expecting 70s for highs across the western and southern CWA, with cooler 40s and 50s over the snow covered areas. Winds will increase on Tuesday as the high shifts farther east and low pressure approaches from the northwest. The good mixing winds and the upper ridge building farther east over the northern Plains today will lead to well above normal highs in snow-free areas and even across some areas with snow in central SD. These warmer temps will create water and fire concerns for the forecast area.
120 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 Expansive high pressure maintains VFR conditions through the TAF period. Breezier conditions (gusts > 20kts) will develop by midday Tuesday as the local pressure gradient tightens in response to a southward shift in the high. Some suppression of the low level anticyclone into the Ohio Valley today will increase the SW gradient across Se Mi. This will drive warmer air across the forecast area; 925 mb temps rising to +11C.
308 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 High pressure will be firmly in place throughout the rest of the week. A weak cold front will move into the region Tuesday night before shifting northeast as a warm front. High pressure will remain across the region through the near term. Enough moisture and lift with a weak cold front will move into the region Tuesday night and looks to be sufficient for some mid and high level clouds. Some air advection as well Tuesday afternoon ahead of that front and some of the higher clouds should result in a warmer night with most spots in the upper 40's. 300 PM Update A slow moving high pressure centered south of our CWA heavily influences our region for most of the week.
Given this high came southward from Canada, cooler air from it can be felt over much of the Deep South despite plenty of sun.
1125 AM MDT Mon Apr 10 2023 A upper level ridge extends from the Desert Southwest to the northern Rockies. Skies were mostly clear with patchy thin cirrus downstream of the upper ridge to the west.
1106 AM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 A broad area of high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft continues to provide mild and dry conditions across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Strong high-pressure grip over the lower Ohio Valley will promote stagnant and dry conditions during this period. Skies should remain mostly sunny with scattered high clouds, from the dissipated upstream trough, streaming across the area.
1252 PM PDT Mon Apr 10 2023 Gusty southwest winds precede passage of a cold front dragging across northwest California and northern Nevada late this afternoon into the evening.
Tuesday will be a notch warmer than today, in the mid to upper 70s in most spots, and possibly around 80 should we maximize our heating. For now, a bit of cumulus and mid cloud are expected in the afternoon, so I see no reason to go with the higher end of guidance. Fire weather appears to be in the high to very high range of GFDI through tuesday evening.
The High Surf Advisory remains in effect for breaking waves of 8 to 10 feet along the east central Florida Atlantic coast.
This has allowed some slightly cooler air to filter into the area. Daytime highs through the week will top out around average in the upper 70's north to the low to mid 80's central and south.
/29 (Now through Tuesday) An upper ridge advancing across the western states and a broad upper trof across the southeast states and southern Plains evolves into a Rex Block pattern over the southern/central Plains with an upper low centered over the lower Sabine River valley.
Tuesday Night Through Monday Upper level ridging will keep the weather warm and quiet for much of the upcoming week.
This will help to increase moisture tranport and perhaps associated shower chances, especially along/S of the Highway 84 corridor, by the end of the day.
That said, some big differences tomorrow in that we'll have much better mixing with south to southwest warming winds and 925mb temps that will be about 10 degrees warmer in another 24 hours. Overnight lows tonight and especially Tuesday night will stay above freezing for nearly everyone, so we'll likely start ramping up our snow melt and river levels over the coming days.
A ridge of high pressure will provide near record high temperatures through Tuesday.
The "warm" weather will continue Tuesday as the ridge reaches its max amplification across the region and the ridge axis passes over WY Tuesday afternoon. The predominant high pressure is keeping very quiet weather across our region as well. The next trough begins to push onshore by Tuesday night. This will bring a strong jet across the area, and increase the pressure gradient behind the exiting ridge.
TFJ An upper ridge will continue to build across the region with temperatures warming to well above normal for the next few days. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with the ridge moving east and an upper trof pushing into the Pacific Northwest. An Alberta low begins forming with a warm front lifting toward the Canadian border. As the low moves east, a cold front will sweep across eastern Montana. As the Pacific Northwest trof moves into the northern Rockies, temperatures will cool back closer to normal. With the trof, a Colorado low will lift into the central Plains.
Only seeing a cirrus shield approaching from the northwest related to a short wave trough. This trough will move southeast of central Indiana overnight as the ridge builds in from the desert southwest, providing more subsidence. Otherwise, tonight will not be as cold as last night but still the high pressure and light to calm wind will allow for good radiational cooling and overnight lows in the 40s.
(This evening through Tuesday) Upper level ridging is currently trying to work its way into the area. An upper low is expected to develop in the ArkLaTex region overnight, creating an area of north to northeast flow over West Central Texas.
Strong high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will build in in the wake of the front, and a quick increase in northeasterly winds is expected starting tonight.
High temperatures will warm into the low to mid 70s this afternoon.
Mainly dry weather is expected through the forecast period though can't rule out the possibility of some coastal drizzle Monday night into Tuesday morning, and perhaps even a couple of light showers over the North Bay, as a weak cold front moves through. Cooler temperatures appear in store for us, starting Monday all but farther inland areas, and then across the district for the remainder of the week.
Tuesday will be similar to today though with warmer temps and perhaps winds just a bit stronger than today. Lows tonight back into the 40s for much of the area, warmer in Chicago.
Storms will exit the region from north to south as the upper level cyclone begins shifting to the southeast.
The ridge of high pressure has brought record warm temperatures to most locations across the Northern Rockies today with the exception of northwest Montana. A cold front will be moving through the Northern Rockies late tonight into Tuesday. Snow levels will be dropping fairly quickly behind the front allowing for snow accumulations in the higher terrain.
335 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 High pressure extending into the area will persist through most of the week. High pressure centered over the mid Atlantic will build west into the Tennessee Valley overnight. Lows will be several degrees warmer than last night.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Weak, low amplitude, moisture-starved trough axis continues to trek across northern Michigan this afternoon. However, heading into tonight, ridging mid-upper ridging begins to build back into the western Great Lakes. At the surface tonight, northern Michigan will lie between a clipper system passing well to our north near James Bay and high pressure centered across the Ohio Valley and Southeast states. touch cooler at the immediate lake Michigan lakeshores and eastern upper. Those near Lake Huron should largely remain on the warmer side given occasionally gusty southwest winds aiding to prevent much in the way of lake breeze development.
1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 The trough over the Upper Midwest will continue to slide to the east today, moving into the Great Lakes region. The associated cold front continues to slide to the southeast and will move into northwestern Missouri this morning before weakening and dissipating. In the meantime, an upper level ridge will build in over the region with increasing south to southwest flow.
454 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 An anomalous upper level ridge will build eastward from the Northern Plains into the Mid Atlantic region this week, keeping our weather clear to partly cloudy and dry with temperatures warming to well above normal.
Overnight lows should dip in the low to mid 50s for most and to around 60 degrees along the Rio Grande. This low will continue to meander around this same area at least through the end of the short term period. Afternoon highs for Tuesday should peak from the mid 70s for many to the low 80s along the Rio Grande.
A cold front is currently draped across our forecast area, with a sharp increase in winds right behind it. Just to our north, winds are sustained near 20 knots, with frequent gusts of 20 to 25 knots as strong high pressure centered across the Mid-Atlantic builds in. High pressure centered near Virginia bridges to near the northern Bahamas and South Florida where a frontal boundary is sagging southward.
Upper level ridge axis has moved east of the area with an upper level low pressure now moving into the region. The upper low will be causing gusty winds across the silver state for today and Tuesday with gusts mainly in the 20s to 30s mph range.
This convection has struggled to make much eastward progress thanks to dry air into the low to mid levels over central portions of the state. At the surface, the area of high pressure that has been driving our weather the last several days will shift southwestward, with low-level flow becoming increasing southwesterly tonight into tomorrow across the CWA.
305 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure remains set up just to the east along the Mid-Atlantic coast. This occurs as you see an upper low form near the LA/TX coastline areas and heights are squeezed toward the Ohio Valley. This high pressure and elongated west to east ridging in the mid-levels will keep it dry and mostly clear for Tuesday night. This will help drop lows into the the low to mid 40s (closer to NBM fifth percentile) in the valleys and mid to upper 40s on the ridges.
This Afternoon Temperatures are running 2 to 4F warmer than forecast. Due to this, raised the high temperatures up into the lower to mid-76s along and south of Interstate 94 and from 65 to 75 north of this interstate.
715 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 (00Z TAFS) Coast trof has pushed inland from the nearshore water with axis just west of I-95. East of the trof, long fetch of northeasterly winds will bring occasional periods of light to moderate nocturnal rain showers to NE FL terminals with cigs waffling between low end VFR this early evening to MVFR conditions during the overnight period. High pressure will build into North GA and the Carolinas with inverted trof sliding westward over the northeast of Gulf of Mexico by tomorrow morning.
This will help to increase moisture transport and perhaps associated shower chances, especially along/S of the Highway 84 corridor, by the end of the day.
926 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 High pressure extending into the area will persist through most of the week. High pressure will allow for continued dry conditions across the region through the overnight.
Expect increasing subsidence tonight/Tuesday over the CWA, as the upper trough axis moves east, stalls and transitions into a closed low and meanders near the TX/LA coast. ) Owing to drying conditions, expect slightly warmer maximum temperatures Tuesday (greater solar radiation), yet slightly cooler tonight/Tuesday night (greater radiational cooling.
604 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 High pressure is expected to bring dry weather through the rest of the week. A weak cold front will move into the region Tuesday night before shifting northeast as a warm front. Previous Discussion: High pressure will remain across the region through the near term. Enough moisture and lift with a weak cold front will move into the region Tuesday night and looks to be sufficient for some mid and high level clouds. Some air advection as well Tuesday afternoon ahead of that front and some of the higher clouds should result in a warmer night with most spots in the upper 40's. 300 PM Update A slow moving high pressure centered south of our CWA heavily influences our region for most of the week.
Highs will range from the mid 60s in the higher elevations east to readings in the lower 70s across the central and western counties. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s across the area.
High pressure will continue to bring near or record high temperatures into Tuesday.
736 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 An anomalous upper level ridge will build eastward from the Northern Plains into the Mid Atlantic region this week, keeping our weather clear to partly cloudy and dry with temperatures warming to well above normal.
609 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 A slow moving trough of low pressure over east central Kansas may provide a focus for showers and storms later this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Ample 0-3km CAPE/low level lapse rates combined with marginal deep layer shear/mid-lvl lapse rates and an uncapped airmass ahead of a slow moving trough axis should allow for a cluster of storms to develop this afternoon/early evening within the exit region of a NE to SW oriented H25 jet. a mid/upper ridge will expand over the central CONUS bringing a prolonged period of mild and dry weather conditions through the period.
700 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Upper level ridging is currently trying to work its way into the area. An upper low is expected to develop in the ArkLaTex region overnight, creating an area of north to northeast flow over West Central Texas.
The upper low will continue to slip southward before becoming cut off over the northern Gulf during the day Tuesday in response to the expanding upper ridge building over the Central Plains and Midwest.
(This evening through Tuesday) High pressure will dominate the short term forecast with subsidence and dry air through most of the atmospheric profile. In fact, high pressure through the low- to mid-levels will dominate the majority of the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, which will force the polar jet stream northward across the Great Lakes region. Thankfully, easterly winds tend to correlate with cooler temperatures and with afternoon highs in the upper 60s today and low 70s tomorrow should keep fire weather criteria from getting too extreme.
(Tonight) The Tennessee Valley area is still under the influence of a large area of high pressure that is centered over the Mid-Atlantic region. This area of high pressure will keep winds light tonight. NW Alabama should be a bit warmer and only drop into the lower 40s.
But with temperatures a little warmer than last night believe that we're still in good shape with regard to not having any frost headlines out. We can expect another chilly early morning as temperatures drop into the 40s or 30s, but are expected to be a few degrees warmer than this mornings temperatures. Tomorrow we can expect similar conditions as today, with temperatures expected to be a few degrees warmer as the ridge strengthens over the eastern US.
732 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 High pressure over the Appalachians will slowly drift southward this week, keeping our region dry, with a warming trend forecast.
639 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 High pressure will be the main influencer of the weather over the next few days.
Upper ridging will dominate the weather tonight and Tuesday. Highs should in the lower 80s F in Denver on Tuesday.
929 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 High pressure will continue across the CWA overnight. (This evening through Tuesday) High pressure will dominate the short term forecast with subsidence and dry air through most of the atmospheric profile. In fact, high pressure through the low- to mid-levels will dominate the majority of the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, which will force the polar jet stream northward across the Great Lakes region. Thankfully, easterly winds tend to correlate with cooler temperatures and with afternoon highs in the upper 60s today and low 70s tomorrow should keep fire weather criteria from getting too extreme.
825 PM MDT Mon Apr 10 2023 Clear skies and mild temperatures expected tonight as the high pressure ridge continues to build into Colorado. Even warmer with elevated fire danger expected on the plains with low humidities and breezy conditions. Upper ridging will dominate the weather tonight and Tuesday. Highs should in the lower 80s F in Denver on Tuesday.
506 PM MDT Mon Apr 10 2023 High pressure remains overhead bringing another day of sunshine, minus a few high wispy clouds, and plenty of warm temperatures across the CWA. The high pressure is also bringing plenty of stable conditions to the region and generally light winds. Heading into the overnight, the next trough will be approaching the PacNW which will cause the ridge axis to shift eastward. with most of these gusts occurring over the higher elevations north of I-70.
345 PM MDT Mon Apr 10 2023 High pressure remains overhead bringing another day of sunshine, minus a few high wispy clouds, and plenty of warm temperatures across the CWA. The high pressure is also bringing plenty of stable conditions to the region and generally light winds. Heading into the overnight, the next trough will be approaching the PacNW which will cause the ridge axis to shift eastward. with most of these gusts occurring over the higher elevations north of I-70.
A warmer day is in store for us tomorrow as more sunshine returns. Meanwhile, the upper-level pattern begins taking on a Rex Block characterized by an amplifying ridge to our north in conjunction with a cutoff low developing over the northern Gulf.
730 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 High pressure extending into the area will persist through most of the week. High pressure centered over the mid Atlantic will build west into the Tennessee Valley overnight. Lows will be several degrees warmer than last night.
636 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 An anomalous upper level ridge will build eastward from the Northern Plains into the Mid Atlantic region this week, keeping our weather clear to partly cloudy and dry with temperatures warming to well above normal.
716 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 High pressure is expected to bring dry weather through the rest of the week. A weak cold front will move into the region Tuesday night before shifting northeast as a warm front. Previous Discussion: High pressure will remain across the region through the near term. Enough moisture and lift with a weak cold front will move into the region Tuesday night and looks to be sufficient for some mid and high level clouds. Some air advection as well Tuesday afternoon ahead of that front and some of the higher clouds should result in a warmer night with most spots in the upper 40's. 300 PM Update A slow moving high pressure centered south of our CWA heavily influences our region for most of the week.
Skies were clearing out some this evening over most of the area, but clouds will increase again overnight as an upper level trough and associated cold front approach from the west.
103 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023 A ridge of high pressure reaches northeastward over the region from the Middle Atlantic states through the week. High pressure over the Middle Atlantic states will keep a ridge in place across the County Warning Area(CWA). As low pressure moves from west to east across Ontario To Quebec it will send a weakening trough to southern Ontario. This low combined with the high to the south will increase the surface pressure gradient, leading to a breezy afternoon and evening. Highs for most locations should be a couple degrees warmer this afternoon. High pressure ridging both at the surface and aloft will persist across the forecast area through the short term.
404 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023 High pressure extending into the area will persist through most of the week. Have adjusted NBM temperatures a little warmer and surface dewpoints drier based on trends with this dry airmass. Red flag conditions are marginal with the area of lowest RH aligned with the lowest winds of around 10 mph or less and the highest winds around 15 mph over the northwest aligned with min RH values close to 30 percent. Have trended forecast warmer than NBM with highs in the lower and middle 70s.
137 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023 High pressure extending into the area will persist through most of the week. High pressure will allow for continued dry conditions across the region through the overnight.
A slow moving trough of low pressure over east central Kansas may provide a focus for showers and storms later this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Ample 0-3km CAPE/low level lapse rates combined with marginal deep layer shear/mid-lvl lapse rates and an uncapped airmass ahead of a slow moving trough axis should allow for a cluster of storms to develop this afternoon/early evening within the exit region of a NE to SW oriented H25 jet. a mid/upper ridge will expand over the central CONUS bringing a prolonged period of mild and dry weather conditions through the period.
1228 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 (Tonight) The Tennessee Valley area is still under the influence of a large area of high pressure that is centered over the Mid-Atlantic region. This area of high pressure will keep winds light tonight. NW Alabama should be a bit warmer and only drop into the lower 40s.
Tuesday will be another hot day in the lower deserts will highs near 100.
(Today) Another pleasant day ahead for the Tennessee Valley as early morning satellite shows clear skies are persisting and current temperatures range from the low to upper 40s. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 70s today, right near our climatological norm for mid April.
1245 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023 An anomalous upper level ridge will build eastward from the Northern Plains into the Mid Atlantic region this week, keeping our weather clear to partly cloudy and dry with temperatures warming to well above normal.
An upper level ridge will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains during the short term period. Towards the surface, lee troughing will develop today and intensify through tomorrow. As for temperatures, highs today will reach into the low 80s today with lows tonight in the lower 50s.
(Today and tonight) West Central Texas will be northerly flow aloft, as an upper low along Upper Texas/Louisiana coast. No shower or thunderstorms expected West Central Texas will be on subsident side of the upper trough.
317 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 Upper-level high pressure will build eastward across the Quad State today, as an upper-level low pressure system settles over the northwest Gulf Coast.
High pressure will continue across the CWA overnight. (This evening through Tuesday) High pressure will dominate the short term forecast with subsidence and dry air through most of the atmospheric profile. In fact, high pressure through the low- to mid-levels will dominate the majority of the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, which will force the polar jet stream northward across the Great Lakes region. Thankfully, easterly winds tend to correlate with cooler temperatures and with afternoon highs in the upper 60s today and low 70s tomorrow should keep fire weather criteria from getting too extreme.