Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Thursday through Friday night) An upper low over New England will slowly retrograde westward, weaken, and then shift northeastward by Friday night. At the surface, a slow-moving cold front will sink southward into SE GA on Thursday and then weakens further as it shifts southward into NE FL on Friday.
A few of the most favored cold spots above 6500 feet are likely to dip at or just below freezing overnight. A trough continues to remain settled over California, bringing persistent SW flow for us here in northern Arizona. The trough settled over California will continue to sit in place but gradually weaken, meaning the SW flow we have will gradually weaken with time and translate to slightly lower winds at the surface. As the system fades and gets reabsorbed into the overall flow, another trough is forecast with high confidence to stall over southern California and provide a reinforcing shot of strong SW winds for us.
As going with the low pops, conversely, much of the FA will continue to remain dry today and enjoy some seasonably warm temperatures.
1013 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A backdoor cold front is moving across the Mid-South this evening with little fanfare. Temperatures will be a bit cooler north of the front with highs in the low/mid 80s while highs will approach the upper 80s to the south. MJ A few showers and thunderstorms will occur over the Midsouth tonight, along a slow-moving cold front.
This is also occurring near a weak H500 trough bisecting the region, and will only drift S overnight.
Increasing subsidence aloft combined with the strengthening ridge should keep the forecast area dry this afternoon and evening.
The next chance for precipitation will arrive late this weekend as moisture increases ahead of the next cold front. High pressure to the northwest and low pressure centered over Maine will continue to drive northerly flow over the region. Blocking upper air pattern continues through the short term period. The closed upper low over New England will provide a weak mid-level disturbance heading south into the lower Great Lakes late on Thursday. Mid level short wave energy rotating around the departing upper level low will drop down across the upper Ohio Valley on Friday.
Drier air gradually advecting southward from the north in advance of cold front dipping into the region tonight into tomorrow.
1134 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A backdoor cold front is moving across the Mid-South this evening with little fanfare. Temperatures will be a bit cooler north of the front with highs in the low/mid 80s while highs will approach the upper 80s to the south. MJ A few showers and thunderstorms will occur over the Midsouth tonight, along a slow-moving cold front.
The only factor that could maximum temperature and limit RH decrease is smoke aloft blocking a portion of daytime heating, but shouldn't lead to a significant change in the forecast.
Otherwise near normal The upper ridge that has situated itself over the southern plains will continue to expand through the day today. This will work to provide some more significant subsidence, especially across western portions of the area closer to the ridge axis. With the aforementioned ridge continuing to build, much of the rest of the area should see mostly clear skies and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90, much closer to normal for this time of year.
KJB We've been stuck in a blocking pattern for quite some time now, but change appears to be on the horizon as the stubborn Omega block begins to break down heading into this weekend. The general trend in forecast guidance the past couple of days has been for a digging northern stream trough to be slower in its southeastward progression and farther west in where it severs itself from the northern stream jet.
1244 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 (This evening through Friday) The upper low that is over the NE US will be retrograding a bit during the short term, lowering heights just a bit and keeping the NWLY flow aloft continuing over much of the forecast area. At the surface a backdoor cold front will ease into the area tonight thru tomorrow from the NE. This will provide somewhat cooler max temperatures across the northern and northeast portions of the forecast area tomorrow, with marginally lower daytime max temperatures on Friday across much of the area.
(Thursday through Friday) An upper-level low across New England combined with a ridge across west Texas into Mexico will allow for northwest flow to prevail aloft across the ArkLaTex through the short-term period ending Friday afternoon. Subsidence associated with the upper-flow pattern will allow for afternoon high temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s both today and Friday across much of the region. The only exception to the temperature forecast could be north of Interstate 30 where highs will be limited to the upper 80s due to a cooler airmass filtering behind an east/west oriented frontal boundary across northeast Texas into Louisiana.
302 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 * Dry conditions will continue through tonight * Smoke and haze from Canadian wildfires will persist, bringing poor air quality Central Indiana will remain on the periphery of an upper low across the northeastern USA. At the surface, high pressure will be the main influence through tonight. An upper short wave is rotating around the upper trough early this morning, bringing a few clouds to eastern portions of the forecast area. Dry air and high pressure will remain in place, so temperatures will fall back into the 40s to around 50 for lows.
Rain showers ahead of a cold front have drifted south of the I-64 corridor at this hour (~1830z), and will continue to push south as the front sinks into Tennessee this evening. Cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place through Friday with low pressure still entrenched over the Northeast. High pressure at the surface will gradually build southeast over the region by Friday evening. With a blocking upper level ridge still over the central CONUS, this pattern will support deep northerly flow through Friday.
245 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 A cold front will move south into the Carolinas. Thursday and Friday will remain cooler than normal with dry high pressure over the area.
Dewpoints remain in the low 40s keeping dry conditions and an enhanced fire threat in place in the short term.
243 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Upper air analysis shows high amplitude ridging across the western half of the CONUS, with a large upper low across the much of the eastern seaboard. A second smaller upper low over central to southern California is drifting into the Great Basin and bringing precip through the northern Rockies region. Over the CWA, upper ridging remains dominant for one more day. Highs will be slightly warmer today, in the 80s to lower 90s. Tonight and Friday, the Great Basin upper low will phase back into a Pacific trough, while the trough slides eastward over the western CONUS. The ridge over the Northern Plains then breaks down, bringing unsettled weather to the region.
420 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Showery and cool conditions will continue through the end of the week as our region remains under the influence of a large upper level low.
346 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Broad, barotropic low pressure over the NE CONUS gradually weakens through the course of the day but maintains a steady feed of dry, relatively cool air into the area on a northerly wind. 850mb temps will reside in the single digits, supportive of high temps mainly in the lower to mid 70s. Expect an increase in clouds compared to the past few days as elevated moisture wraps around the low. Dry conditions again on Friday as the low retreats back to the east coast, giving way to strongly confluent mid-level flow paired with NVA to produce high static stability over the region. The thermal trough will dislodge and 850mb temps should rebound toward 10C, translating to high temps in the mid to upper 70s across the board.
We see 850mb temps becoming a couple degrees cooler across eastern areas on Thursday as the center of the upper high that's been over us for several days gradually shifts westward, allowing this "cooler" air to move in. Highs on Thursday look to be a couple degrees cooler than today, but that's about it. At the surface, low pressure should be set up from southeastern MT through western SD and down through NE, in between nearly steady state areas of high pressure over the Upper great Lakes and Colorado Rockies.
Temperatures will trend modestly cooler today and tomorrow with an uptick in shower activity expected Friday afternoon. Code Orange Air Quality Alert (AQA) for the Lower Susquehanna Valley (issued by PADEP) with AQI forecast between 101-150 (unhealthy for sensitive groups) across most/if not all of the Commonwealth.
(Tonight through Thursday) A cold front has entered far northeast Alabama late this evening. A surface cold front will move into the northern portion of the state early in the morning hours and will progress southward through the day. Look for clouds to increase across the north through the morning hours with increased chances for shower and thunderstorm activity ahead of the approaching cold front. Highs will range from the low 80s far north and northeast to readings in the low 90s south and southeast.
Temperatures will trend modestly cooler through late week with an increased risk of diurnal rain showers Thursday and Friday.
217 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 A cold front will sink south through the area tonight into Thursday.
248 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Satellite imagery and sfc obs show a backdoor cold front moving out of far western portions of SEMO this morning with clearing skies. Cooler and dry conditions are in store for today and Friday as the synoptic pattern is dominated by a omega block with the FA beneath the western edge of a H5 trough of low pressure over the northeast CONUS. High temperatures each day will be near to slightly below normal in the low to mid 80s. Have mixed NBM with CONSMOS for nighttime temperatures as the NBM has been trending cooler for this reason. The weekend will start off dry as a H5 trough ejects out of Manitoba/Ontario Canada and develops into a closed low over Wisconsin.
Mostly clear skies will dominate the rest of the evening and overnight hours underneath relatively weak deep layer ridging.
Highs will again top out in the mid to upper 70s inland, and in the low 70s near Lake Michigan. High pressure starts to push east of the area on Friday, with warming temperatures aloft and at the surface. Highs are expected to reach the low 80s for most, though will be a few degrees cooler near the lake.
1042 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 The cold front has slowly pushed westward across the region this afternoon. Plenty of cloud cover has also kept temperatures cooler and made it more difficult to achieve the kind of surface based instability that would be needed for more rigorous convection. Cooler and drier air will push in from the northeast tonight and tomorrow. High pressure begins to move into the area from the north Thursday night allowing winds to diminish under a clear sky.
Drier air will drop dew points into the low to mid 40s as high temperatures reach into the mid 70s to near 80 under sunny skies. Temperatures however are expected to fall into to mid 40s to low 50s, which is about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal.
High pressure will then build into the area over the weekend.
1049 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Key Messages: - Elevated fire weather conditions due to low humidities this afternoon and tomorrow in the low 20s east of the Mississippi River.
Mid level ridging will build over the area with westerly, downslope flow developing at the surface. Even warmer conditions are in store for Friday as mid-level temperatures heat up even more. Highs will approach 100 for many minus the higher terrain where temperatures will stay near 90.
1149 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) An upper jet supporting low pressure over California is currently directed across northern Mexico with a jet max entering far West Texas. High pressure over Mexico builds north and asserts itself as 500mb heights rise from 580dam today to 584dam Thursday.
(Today) Water vapor imagery shows a trough axis shifting south through the TN valley, with an attendant cold front already pushing south of our forecast area into central AL. Highs will reach the lower 80s for most valley areas today, with upper 70s atop the Cumberland Plateau region.
1222 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 (Tonight through Thursday) A cold front has entered far northeast Alabama late this evening. A surface cold front will move into the northern portion of the state early in the morning hours and will progress southward through the day. Look for clouds to increase across the north through the morning hours with increased chances for shower and thunderstorm activity ahead of the approaching cold front. Highs will range from the low 80s far north and northeast to readings in the low 90s south and southeast.
Similar to previous days, thunderstorms will develop first across SE Oregon and higher terrain of SW Idaho in the afternoon spreading into the lower elevations by evening. Moisture will continue to wrap into the region from the south and east as an upper low in California weakens and slowly moves northward into our area by Friday. Temperatures will trend a few degrees cooler each day.
449 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Today the weakening low pressure will track northward over the Great Basin leaving us in southerly flow. Isolated showers and storms are still possible mainly along the Divide, but do not expect much of this activity to reach the lower valleys. Tomorrow will not be much different as the low gradually moves over Idaho.
Simultaneously, a cold frontal boundary may trigger additional showers and thunderstorms as Canadian high pressure begins to work in from the north.
A broad, longwave trough axis is currently situated across the E CONUS with a weak surface boundary draped across the SE, over N GA, AL, MS. While well-removed from our area, Florida remains in the warmer sector, with WSW flow advecting the warm, humid conditions off the Gulf northward towards the boundary. If water temperatures were warmer (at least 82 degrees), there would probably be scattered to numerous convection across the area through midday. Offshore buoys in the deeper water where one would expect to see those warmer temps to support more convection are only showing temps in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
809 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 A broad, longwave trough axis is currently situated across the E CONUS with a weak surface boundary draped across the SE, over N GA, AL, MS. While well-removed from our area, Florida remains in the warmer sector, with WSW flow advecting the warm, humid conditions off the Gulf northward towards the boundary. If water temperatures were warmer (at least 82 degrees), there would probably be scattered to numerous convection across the area through midday. Offshore buoys in the deeper water where one would expect to see those warmer temps to support more convection are only showing temps in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
717 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Showery and cool conditions will continue through the end of the week as our region remains under the influence of a large upper level low.
(Rest of Today) A cold front that sweep in a north to south manner across the Tennessee Valley yesterday evening; was now located from south of the MS Golden Triangle, to north of Montgomery and south of Columbus GA. High pressure building in from the north will bring another episode of somewhat cooler than normal air across the region to end the work week. Highs later today should "only" warm into the low/mid 80s, cooler than the mid 80s to lower 90s that occurred yesterday.
450 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 (Today) Water vapor imagery shows a trough axis shifting south through the TN valley, with an attendant cold front already pushing south of our forecast area into central AL. Highs will reach the lower 80s for most valley areas today, with upper 70s atop the Cumberland Plateau region.
Due to atmospheric overrunning from this complex across most of the area, along with weak flow aloft and subsidence from upper-level ridging setting in through the day, expect most of the area to stay dry Thursday.
By Friday, the upper level low digs to the south and becomes closed within California. Not much changes this weekend as the closed low to our south helps keep the atmosphere unstable. Temperatures will remain slightly warmer than normal through the weekend with some mid 60's along the coast.
Below-freezing conditions are already present in some spots across the Mogollon Rim and Coconino Plateau. The California low pressure system centered over the Death Valley area is beginning to lift north and east.
Persistent troughing continues for the region as a weakening upper- level low continues to spin over California and western Nevada. However, due to the continuation of this troughing pattern, daytime highs are expected to remain below normal for this time of year. Highs for today across much of the lower deserts will run in the middle 90s, with a slight increase to the upper 90s by the end of the week.
* Our compact upper low begins filling and shifting eastward today, leaving a moist and unstable airmass with very light northerly flow over the region. * The next trough dropping into the area will increase flow on Friday, with decreasing thunderstorm coverage compared to today, but still a 60% chance near the Oregon border and a 15-30% chance elsewhere.
539 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Our region is squeezed between an upper ridge over the central plains and an upper low over the northeast and has resulted in persistent deep northwesterly flow which has allowed for seasonably warm temperatures. This should continue today with high temperatures likely reaching the low to mid 90s. A cold front attendant to the low pressure system in the northeast sweeps across the area from north to south this afternoon. Still, thunderstorms should develop this afternoon aided by the cold front and diurnal heating and should generally stay concentrated near the front or to areas with greater moisture available.
An upper trough will gradually exit east away from CA during the next 24 hours. A similar scenario is expected during Friday, followed by an upper trough evolving into a closed low this weekend.
(Today through Friday) Overall pattern continue to be dominated by upper lows over New England and near the Nevada-California border. Upper ridging was noted from northern Mexico northward into the Dakotas. Troughing associated with the New England low was evident across pretty much the entire portion of the country east of the Mississippi River. A backdoor cold front, with dew points below 60F was well to our north and northeast near a Memphis to Birmingham line.
* Dry conditions will continue through tonight * Smoke and haze from Canadian wildfires will persist, bringing poor air quality Central Indiana will remain on the periphery of an upper low across the northeastern USA. At the surface, high pressure will be the main influence through tonight. An upper short wave is rotating around the upper trough early this morning, bringing a few clouds to eastern portions of the forecast area. Dry air and high pressure will remain in place, so temperatures will fall back into the 40s to around 50 for lows.
SE AZ continues to be caught between a low northwest of the area through the southern Great Basin, and a ridge to our east.
Slightly warmer mid level temperatures across western Oklahoma may result in a preference for storms farther east this afternoon.
Persistent omega block, with upper ridging over the central US, troughing over the west, and a large upper low over the east will remain in place through at least the weekend. Filling upper low will shift north and east into the Great Basin today, allowing for waves of energy to advect into the region into a very moist airmass already in place. Expect thunderstorms to increase and become widespread by this afternoon, first lifting off the higher terrain, then spreading north into the evening hours.
441 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Upper air analysis shows high amplitude ridging across the western half of the CONUS, with a large upper low across the much of the eastern seaboard. A second smaller upper low over central to southern California is drifting into the Great Basin and bringing precip through the northern Rockies region. Over the CWA, upper ridging remains dominant for one more day. Highs will be slightly warmer today, in the 80s to lower 90s. Tonight and Friday, the Great Basin upper low will phase back into a Pacific trough, while the trough slides eastward over the western CONUS. The ridge over the Northern Plains then breaks down, bringing unsettled weather to the region.
458 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 (Thursday through Friday) An upper-level low across New England combined with a ridge across west Texas into Mexico will allow for northwest flow to prevail aloft across the ArkLaTex through the short-term period ending Friday afternoon. Subsidence associated with the upper-flow pattern will allow for afternoon high temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s both today and Friday across much of the region. The only exception to the temperature forecast could be north of Interstate 30 where highs will be limited to the upper 80s due to a cooler airmass filtering behind an east/west oriented frontal boundary across northeast Texas into Louisiana.
419 AM PDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Warmer inland through Friday as low pressure across the area weakens.
1028 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Showery and cool conditions will continue through the end of the week as our region remains under the influence of a large upper level low.
The westward shift of the upper level ridge has allowed the surface pastern to shift farther west than originally anticipated 24hr ago with the frontal zone now west our four CWA with TD values already 5- 15F lower than yesterday.
411 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Our region is squeezed between an upper ridge over the central plains and an upper low over the northeast and has resulted in persistent deep northwesterly flow which has allowed for seasonably warm temperatures. This should continue today with high temperatures likely reaching the low to mid 90s. A cold front attendant to the low pressure system in the northeast sweeps across the area from north to south this afternoon. Still, thunderstorms should develop this afternoon aided by the cold front and diurnal heating and should generally stay concentrated near the front or to areas with greater moisture available.
Broad, barotropic low pressure over the NE CONUS gradually weakens through the course of the day but maintains a steady feed of dry, relatively cool air into the area on a northerly wind. 850mb temps will reside in the single digits, supportive of high temps mainly in the lower to mid 70s. Expect an increase in clouds compared to the past few days as elevated moisture wraps around the low. Dry conditions again on Friday as the low retreats back to the east coast, giving way to strongly confluent mid-level flow paired with NVA to produce high static stability over the region. The thermal trough will dislodge and 850mb temps should rebound toward 10C, translating to high temps in the mid to upper 70s across the board.
318 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Friday night until Thursday: A stalled boundary layer will continue to slice our CWA in half, leaving cooler, drier air in the NE portion of our region and warmer, moist air in regions S and SW of the Golden Triangle region.
328 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Showery and cool conditions will continue through the end of the week as our region remains under the influence of a large upper level low.
142 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Showery and cool conditions will continue through the end of the week as our region remains under the influence of a large upper level low.
The front itself won't be very noticeable, with only slightly cooler and drier conditions in its wake. Highs are forecast in the low to mid 90s across the southern half of the area, with the upper 80s to low 90s across SE AL, and South Central GA.