Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Given MLCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg, 0-6km bulk shear of 40 knots or greater, and sfc-500m SRH exceeding 50 m2/s2 as the low level jet ramps up around 00z, all severe hazards would be possible as those storms approach the TX/NM state line.
1234 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 (Today through Friday) The upper low remains across the Southeast, so another high chance PoP day is in store for today. The low begins to exit some on Friday, and rain chances will be highest in the southeast. Will need to monitor the actual location of the low as some wrap around may make it into the for northwest as well, but right now the consensus is for the south and east for the best chances.
1003 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Dry and milder conditions are expected today through tonight as weak high pressure develops across the region.
Cloud cover increases as another upper level low deepens through today bringing chances of coastal drizzle Friday morning. Cooling is associated with a closed 500 mb low over the CA coastal waters and the Bay Area, the closed low circulation is part of the larger scale trough over the west. 7 mb) SMX-SFO pressure gradient for example, advection of cooler air combined with delayed mixing out of low clouds could keep temperatures lower in these locations. Upper low centered over central coastal CA will deepen through today, further expanding the marine layer into tonight, leading to more widespread stratus coverage and patchy drizzle along coastal locations through late tonight.
Mid/upper level high pressure centered across W TX and northeastern Mexico will continue to produce a subsident/heat producing environment across S TX. The only relief may be from isolated showers or thunderstorms moving southward in response to an embedded short wave trough that is tracking around the northeast periphery of the high pressure. The high pressure is forecast to shift slightly east Friday, thus decreasing rain chances even further and leading to more dangerous heat across S TX.
(Through Tonight) At the surface, the region will be between high pressure to the east southeast, and a stalled frontal zone to the northwest. The region remains in the base of a 500mb trough. Otherwise, mainly cloudy skies are expected Tonight, with lows away from the coast in the lower 70s.
The upper low that moved southward earlier this week has now started to retrograde back towards the north through the period. The low is expected to pass over the Tennessee Valley and the Commonwealth today which will lower surface heights across the area this afternoon.
The northwest mid level confluent flow over the Mid South will lead to building high pressure in the lower levels as lower surface dewpoints are ushered into the region. /GG/ Friday Night through next Thursday: The upper low is expected to shift east/northeastward across the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes Region by late Friday evening. In response to this, dewpoint temperatures are expected to mix out into the low to upper 60s across most of CWA. Areas along and south of Hwy 84 could see dewpoints in the low 70s. These higher dewpoints should help afternoon temperatures peak in the low to mid 90s across the area for much of the weekend.
Temperatures just reached 70 in Nashville with mid-to-upper 60s elsewhere, so today is definitely going to be on the cooler side. Those east of I-65 continue to be the biggest beneficiaries from the upper low that has been driving our recent rains. This trend should continue as the upper low is expected to begin pulling away from Middle TN Thursday night.
Overall, the best rain potential will likely be near the surface boundary so the higher POPs/QPF will reside along and south of I10 with some lower but still mentionable POPs across the northern tier. Temperatures through the short term will be around or slightly above average with the warmest temps closer to the upper high across the west. and the coolest temperatures residing over the eastern portions of the CWFA closer to the departing upper level low over the TN River Valley.
Mid/upper level high pressure centered across W TX and northeastern Mexico will continue to produce a subsident/heat producing environment across S TX. The only relief may be from isolated showers or thunderstorms moving southward from the South Central Texas area in response to an embedded short wave trough that is tracking around the northeast periphery of the high pressure. The high pressure is forecast to shift slightly east Friday, thus decreasing rain chances even further and leading to more dangerous heat across S TX for the next several days.
(Tonight) By mid to late this evening, the upper level low over southeast TN will lift northeast into eastern KY. Overnight lows will be in the lower 60s for most areas, and perhaps a few upper 50s in southern middle TN and far northeast AL.
Precipitation Trends on Friday Afternoon: A weak cold front is expected to sag into the northwest part of the forecast area on Friday afternoon, and may be enhanced by a lake breeze off Lake Superior. Relative humidity will remain on the low side during the daytime.
Models have continued to come into agreement on the track of the low moving across MT and into the Dakotas this weekend.
This low will continue to lift northward over the next couple of days. Tomorrow will be dry and warmer with highs in the mid to upper 80s as the upper low lifts over the Ohio Valley and ridging approaches from the west.
1006 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Another rinse and repeat forecast is expected today as an upper level low remains centered over Middle Tennessee. Otherwise, the remainder of the day will be warm with temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
The Keys are on the east side of an upper level trough axis, with copious cloud cover limiting afternoon highs to near 90 aside from a few spots which poked into the sunshine. SFC winds are from the southeast and range from 10 to 20 knots, with the higher values due to the pancake batter spreading out from the collapsed storms over the eastern Straits.
138 PM PDT Thu Jun 22 2023 A low pressure system moving inland across California today will deepen the marine layer west of the mountains and bring gusty mountain and desert winds into Friday.
In the midlevels, modest southwesterly flow was note over the region with a impressive trough over CA. The best chance will be over the two ridges, the Raton Mesa (Las Animas county) and the Palmer Divide (El Paso county).
Low pressure pulls off to the northeast tomorrow, but isolated to scattered showers are expected once again. Discussion: The stubborn closed low continues to impact the region as it wobbles overhead. Tomorrow is when we finally begin to see the low exit to our north. This is due to the flow turning more westerly on the backside of the low and the windward side of the Appalachians now being favored for upslope flow.
234 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Light rain will overspread the region from the south again this evening through early Friday morning as low pressure slowly advances north into the Ohio Valley.
1125 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Light rain will overspread the region from the south again this evening through early Friday morning as low pressure slowly advances north into the Ohio River Valley.
Presently, a west CONUS trough remains in place with a lowly amplified ridge over the southern Plains and upper low pressure over the eastern CONUS. Precipitation chances further increase Friday night as the upper low itself begins to encroach on the Dakotas.
With cloud cover and the location of the frontal boundary, now believe highs in the southern JRV of ND were a little on the high side. With temperatures in the lower 60s and cloud cover forecasted, todays high temperatures are still on track to the 70s. More chances of storms this afternoon only in the southeast as high pressure moves in the northwest. High temperatures will stay cooler in the 70s again today. The southwest flow will continue until a low pressure system with a lot of synoptic lift moves through late Friday.
Currently, an upper level low situated over the southeast is providing increased moisture and instability to the area. Even more moisture is being provided by the low level ridge keeping us in a SW flow. By the weekend the upper level low moves further north and the ridge axis moves over the peninsula. Winds will begin to finally decrease over the weekend as the ridge axis situates over the peninsula.
1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Latest water vapor imagery showed the upper low over the Tennessee Valley with a ridge over the Plains. At the surface, a ridge extended from the northeast through the Great lakes resulting in easterly flow over Missouri and Illinois. Latest run of the HREF is showing the upper low moving slowly north through tomorrow which will allow the upper ridge to slowly shift east. Will also go dry tomorrow as the upper ridge moves closer to the region. Warmer air will move into the area on Friday allowing highs to reach around 90. Britt Ensembles are in general agreement that the upper ridge over the Midwest on Friday night will flatten out and move east as the upper low moves from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes over the weekend.
Further upstream, an upper low is pushing onshore near north-central California. Attention then turns to the closed upper low just off the CA coast.
929 AM PDT Thu Jun 22 2023 A low pressure system moving inland across California today will deepen the marine layer west of the mountains and bring gusty mountain and desert winds into Friday.
1145 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over central SD, with a nearly stationary frontal boundary stretching from southeast ND to southwest SD and southeast WY. Unsettled and cooler wx will be the main weather story over the next few days as persistent southwesterly flow remains across the region.
1254 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 The focus for convection is expected to remain over the high Plains the next couple of days where the most unstable airmass will encounter periodic perturbations moving over the Rockies which will spill into and over the mean ridge aloft across the area.
The main system comes into play tomorrow, as a closed Low begins to approach the northern plains. This weekend, a closed, stacked low will move over a ridge placed in the SW and into the Northern Plains. There is currently a 50% for a more widespread 1" or more in our area, 25% chance for the higher QPF to be limited to MN Lakes country, and a 25% chance for the higher QPF to be limited to an area of NW MN north of HWY-2.
Friday should see an eastward push to the dryline out of eastern New Mexico and toward the I-27 corridor as an upper level trough lifts northeastward across the Great Basin.
1204 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) Upper ridge centered over Nrn Mexico will extend up across TX and NM into the Central Plains today. Out west a trough moving across the Great Basin will swing up the west side of the ridge Friday but not dislodge it as high pressure remains over the area. A large storm skirted Scurry county overnight putting out an outflow boundary that pushed through Midland bringing cooler temps to the NE Permian Basin.
A chance of afternoon-evening showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. There is a slight chance that a thunderstorm drifts across the lower elevations, including the Snake Plain.
Some of the high resolution convective allowing models indicate 40+dBZ cells popping up in NE Mendocino and eastern Del Norte with daytime heating.
717 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 (Tonight) By mid to late this evening, the upper level low over southeast TN will lift northeast into eastern KY. Overnight lows will be in the lower 60s for most areas, and perhaps a few upper 50s in southern middle TN and far northeast AL.
Currently - A deep layered low remains entrenched over the southeastern United States and is holding the surface through lower level Atlantic ridge across South Florida and the Keys. This will allow the ridge parked near us to also slip northward towards Central Florida. The gradual retreat of the low to our north is expected to take with it the mid level lift. This will allow ridging to maintain its hold across our area. Warm and relatively humid conditions will continue and lows will struggle to reach the lower 80s and dew points will remain in the upper 70s. An Atlantic ridge across South Florida and the Keys will lift northward towards Central Florida through the overnight period.
Cold front has exited the fcst area but lingering t-storms exist Wadena county into SE Hubbard county MN. The main system comes into play tomorrow, as a closed Low begins to approach the northern plains. This weekend, a closed, stacked low will move over a ridge placed in the SW and into the Northern Plains. There is currently a 50% for a more widespread 1" or more in our area, 25% chance for the higher QPF to be limited to MN Lakes country, and a 25% chance for the higher QPF to be limited to an area of NW MN north of HWY-2.
919 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Rain showers have pushed into the I-75 corridor this evening as a broad upper level low lifts northward. Widely scattered rain showers will continue to be possible east of I- 65 overnight as the upper low lifts through eastern KY into OH. With overcast skies expected through the night, temperatures will likely remain in the lower to mid 60s. For Friday, scattered afternoon showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible in association with the low slowly moving through Ohio. High temperatures will be a bit warmer than today, topping out in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
815 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023 23Z sfc analysis shows low pressure over the area as it has been for much of the week. Did also include the current obs and trends for the T/Td grids as well as beefing up the fog accompanying the lowering clouds through the rest of the night. However, as the low ejects to the northeast, increasing chances for showers and storms exist again for Friday as the associated occluded front moves through the Commonwealth.
MH (Issued 111 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023) Tonight through Friday night: High pressure will keep the weather quiet through Friday night.
658 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Light rain will overspread the region this evening as low pressure slowly advances north into the Ohio Valley.
201 PM PDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Cooler than normal temperatures into the weekend. Temperatures this afternoon will warm to the upper-70s/mid-80s for the Valley today (slightly cooler in the vicinity of the Delta).
753 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Aviation - Warm and windy for the rest of the day The large upper level low will continue to dominate the pattern today and through tomorrow. However it did moisten up the lower atmosphere. More bands of precipitation will cycle around the low tomorrow streaming in another round of clouds with higher PWAT values with it.
Otherwise, overnight temperatures will remain above average with lows expected to be in the low to mid 60s across the area.
320 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2023 A wavy frontal zone over the Piedmont of the Carolinas will weaken later today and tonight, as a mid and upper-level cyclone lifts north across the OH Valley. Weak high pressure will dominate for the weekend.
152 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Aviation - Warm and windy for the rest of the day The large upper level low will continue to dominate the pattern today and through tomorrow. However it did moisten up the lower atmosphere. More bands of precipitation will cycle around the low tomorrow streaming in another round of clouds with higher PWAT values with it.
Another outflow boundary (if this activity persists eastward) may keep temperatures slightly cooler west of I-35 for the first half of the day. Otherwise, expect temps to be 2-4 degrees warmer than yesterday for most as the upper ridge slides east and expands northward. By late this afternoon, additional moist convection will likely develop along the dryline off the higher terrain of west TX and perhaps progress eastward into far southwestern OK and portions of north TX.
Bouts of occasional cirrus cloud decks and modestly freshened east to southeasterly breezes have kept temperatures from falling below the lower 80s. The synoptic setup places the Florida Keys wedged between a lifting upper-level trough over the Southeast and a ridge over the Western Atlantic. Despite this cloud cover, temperatures should have no problem reaching their advertised potential of the lower 90s, with heat indices topping out between 100-110 at times. By the start of the work week, high pressure that has been planted over Central America will expand eastward into the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, the ridge over the Atlantic will also rebuild westwards towards Florida.
Deep mixing this afternoon will likely place a limit of dew points in the low to mid 50s this afternoon. With a strengthening subsidence inversion advancing eastward ahead of an approaching mid-level ridge, convective depths within any growing cumulus will diminish. Temps today will run a degree or two warmer than Thursday, with highs around 90 west to mid 80s east (except 70s along the shore).
Looking upstream, main trof of interest is lifting northeastward thru NV. Increasing low level easterly winds combined with strengthening SW flow aloft as the upstream trof approaches will allow bulk shear to rise to 30-40 knots southeast of Billings, with sbcapes of ~1500 j/kg expected. It is in this area where latest guidance (including the neural network) shows the highest potential for severe t-storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.
A couple of the high resolution CAMs suggest a couple of isolated showers or thunderstorms could develop after sunrise Friday morning along a remnant outflow boundary from the Oklahoma/Texas convection.
Rain showers have pushed into the I-75 corridor this evening as a broad upper level low lifts northward. Widely scattered rain showers will continue to be possible east of I- 65 overnight as the upper low lifts through eastern KY into OH. With overcast skies expected through the night, temperatures will likely remain in the lower to mid 60s. For Friday, scattered afternoon showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible in association with the low slowly moving through Ohio. High temperatures will be a bit warmer than today, topping out in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
310 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Weakening closed low continuing to drift northward into the central/eastern Great Lakes early this morning with associated moisture transport already occuring across SE MI. Dewpoints gradually climb into the lower 60s over the course of the day with PW values likewise climbing to 1. Initial morning shower activity is driven by a lobe of PV swinging into the area from northern OH; however, model guidance all advertises this lobe to lessen in magnitude due to parent wave starting to interact/be absorbed into the northern stream subtly shifting the low and main upper level divergence east of the state. Lingering showers quickly taper off by late evening with the loss of daytime heating and the continuing to eastward shift of the low toward Niagara.
205 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Dew points right now hover in the lower 60s. Winds will be light out of the north to northwest today, circulating around low pressure that drifts across the Mid Ohio Valley. Dew points may mix down into the upper 50s north and west, but may linger in the lower 60s south and east. Nevertheless, we'll carry NBM PPI01 Pops audible east closer to the low, tapering off to silent (but not zero) further west/away from the low.
407 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2023 The upper low will shift north today with drier air working into northern and western areas while moisture hangs on across the south and east near a frontal boundary.
252 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023 SW flow aloft will bring moisture into the forecast area today as a low pressure system develops over Wyoming. This trough will become a closed upper low along the MT/WY border in SE MT and NE WY late tonight with heavy rain along and north of this low track across southern MT and northern WY.
Mid and upper-level cloud cover is extensive, despite what appears to be deep layer ridging across the Keys. Water vapor imagery suggests there is a battle going on between the subtropical ridge and a nearly stationary mid to upper-level trough over the eastern US. Peeping at the low- level cloud motions across the area, the southeastern Gulf waters are anticyclonic, while decent cyclonic curvature and speed convergence spreads across the Bahama and Cay Sal Banks. The forecast calls for 30% rain/thunder chances through the afternoon, with highs in the lower 90s.
/GG/ Today and Tonight: With a ridge of high pressure centered over the Southern and Central High Plains today, and an upper-level low pressure system spinning over the Ohio River Valley, our forecast area will be positioned below northwest flow aloft.
528 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023 (23/12Z TAF Period) VFR conditions prevail under predominately high-level clouds through the beginning of this TAF period; however, cloudiness will increase from south to north in response to a low pressure system propagating northeastward this afternoon. /ISSUED 528 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023/ Deterministic models are in pretty solid agreement that a broad upper-level trough and associated low pressure system will make way across Northern Idaho/Southern Montana, bringing widespread rainfall across predominately Central and Southwest Montana this afternoon through Saturday. Despite the higher MUCAPE values, shear values are far less impressive, meaning any thunderstorm that develops will essentially rain itself out.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon in the Lower Columbia, Portland/Vancouver Metro Area, Western Columbia Gorge, and Cascades.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible most of the day today and into tonight as several weak mid-level waves traverse the ridge aloft and southerly, moist, boundary-layer flow continues. This wave will suppress the upper-level ridge to the south and east. A cold front will accompany this wave as it moves through the central Plains.
Mid/upper level high pressure centered across W TX and northeastern Mexico will continue to meander across the region today through Saturday which will maintain the well above normal temperatures and high humidity across S TX.
In a nutshell, the presence of incoming moisture and meandering area of low pressure aloft will keep rain chances in the forecast through Saturday.
(Today through Saturday) Drier changes will finally begin to manifest today as the pesky lingering upper low slowly lifts northward. As the upper low continues to open and lift into the Northeast U.
942 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 A warmer day is expected across the Mid-South today as southwest winds advect increased moisture and temperatures to the region.
The upper-level ridge that has been baking west central Texas for the past several days will remain in place for today and tonight.
409 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Today and Tonight: With a ridge of high pressure centered over the Southern and Central High Plains today, and an upper-level low pressure system spinning over the Ohio River Valley, our forecast area will be positioned below northwest flow aloft.
By late Friday morning, most of the low clouds have lifted with mostly sunny to sunny skies forecast for the afternoon period. Unfortunately, the heat continues and gets even warmer for the upcoming weekend.
This being the case, it appears that in-situ convective development will be conditional in nature -- the condition being whether or not low- level convergence invof the lee cyclone and/or dryline will be sufficient to [1] overcome convective inhibition associated with a pronounced elevated mixed layer and [2] sustain/promote deep updrafts that survive dry-air entrainment. To start off the week, an upper level ridge is expected to sit across the Tri-State area with nearly zonal flow out of the west expected aloft.
505 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2023 The upper low will shift north today with drier air working into northern and western areas while moisture hangs on across the south and east near a frontal boundary.
607 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Dry weather will persist through Saturday as high pressure remains in place across the region.