Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
228 AM PDT Sun Apr 16 2023 A weak ridge over the West this morning, will be replaced by a trough building south from the Gulf of Alaska through midweek. The trough will spread rain and snow over northern California, but for southern parts of the State, it will be mostly wind, and a building marine layer.
(Rest of Today) Narrow line of light rain/showers is moving eastward across the I-65 corridor, with a trailing cold front crossing thru NW AL. Cloud cover will then gradually diminish from the west this afternoon, as highs struggle to climb past the lower/mid 60s for most spots.
608 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 (Today through Monday) West-northwesterly flow aloft will prevail across the region through the short term, with high pressure at the surface building into and then moving east of the region. Winds will remain breezy at times out of the northeast through this morning and possibly the early afternoon before beginning to diminish and turn east/southeasterly as high pressure becomes more centered over the region. With high pressure sliding to the east of the region, breezy southeasterly winds are expected during the day tomorrow. Therefore, other than some mid and upper level cloud cover returning, Monday should be a pleasant spring day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and minimum RH in the low 20s to low 30s.
Key Points: - Windy Today - Very high to Extreme Fire Danger Today - Freezing Temperatures Possible Monday Morning The low pressure system that brought showers and thunderstorms to the area yesterday has pushed off to the east and an upper-level ridge is building in. Tonight, clear skies, dry air and high pressure building in should allow for good radiational cooling with lows falling into the low to mid 30s. Therefore, a Freeze Watch was issued for locations most likely to see below freezing temperatures tonight.
This nice spring weather will be short lived as cold front will approach the Northern Rockies this afternoon in Idaho and late this afternoon/evening across western Montana. A Pacific cold front will track across Northwest Montana and north-central Idaho late tonight into early Monday morning.
(Today through Monday) West-northwesterly flow aloft will prevail across the region through the short term, with high pressure at the surface building into and then moving east of the region. Winds will remain breezy at times out of the northeast through this morning and possibly the early afternoon before beginning to diminish and turn east/southeasterly as high pressure becomes more centered over the region. With high pressure sliding to the east of the region, breezy southeasterly winds are expected during the day tomorrow. Therefore, other than some mid and upper level cloud cover returning, Monday should be a pleasant spring day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and minimum RH in the low 20s to low 30s.
507 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2023 We will be moving into the warmest and calmest period of the forecast over the next 24-36 hours as a transitory ridge aloft moves from the Great Basin to the Great Plains. The next longwave trough moves into the Pacific Northwest by Monday evening.
(Today through Monday) A surface cold front that is making its way towards GA early this morning will traverse north and central GA by this evening.
Cooler and much drier air will filter in behind a cold front today with highs in the 60s and lows tonight in the 40s. Another upper-level trough and cold front will bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances back to the Mid-South for late this week.
Upper low centered over IA early this morning has brought wrap- around light snow/flurries into the far eastern CWA, with obs at ETH/VVV showing off and on -SN for the past few hours. Add on top of that low pressure forming in northeast Colorado and departing high over the Western Lakes region generating around ~15mb of pressure gradient across the state.
Highs around the seasonal average today, before a weak cold front causes a drop in temperatures to start the work week.
822 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Showers and thunderstorms possible associated with a cold front this evening. As ridging builds over the region during the week, expect warming temperatures and dry weather.
Early morning objective analysis showed upper level ridging situated across the western CONUS, allowing for dry, tranquil weather conditions to prevail. The ridge situated over the region will push temperatures several degrees above normal today as afternoon highs across the lower deserts climb into the upper 80s to low 90s for most areas. Similar temperatures are expected to start off the new workweek with highs in the low 90s being common for many locales. The ridging then shifts east early this week as our next trough digs across the Pacific Northwest, bringing us another period of gusty winds and cooler temperatures. Ensemble cluster analysis shows good agreement in the evolution of this trough.
(Today and tonight) Following yesterday's cold front, conditions will be a touch cooler for Sunday.
438 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2023 We'll have a quiet day today, with dry air, light west winds aloft, and temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday.
628 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 (Today through Monday) Cold front is currently pushing through the Ranchlands. Tonight will be clear and cooler with lows in the mid 50s. By Monday, high pressure returns over Deep South Texas and winds shift back to a southeasterly flow.
- Warmer for mid week with multiple chances for rain mid to late week. With the gusty winds, it will feel much cooler. That upper-level wave will move east of the area by Monday with broad upper-ridging building eastward into the middle of the country. As low-level flow becomes southerly and thickness values increase due to the ridging, temperatures will rebound into the 60s to low 70s for Monday.
637 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Showers and thunderstorms may develop later today and tonight in advance of a cold front that will push offshore late.
This residual convection will continue east throughout this morning, generally ahead of the cold front now entering west Mississippi. Morning overcast will improve throughout the day as the cold front moves into the area this morning. Much drier, cooler air will advect into Central Alabama with high pressure looming off to our west. The broad upper-level trough/low will continue to occlude to our north tomorrow with a deep-layer ridge moving into the Plains. High pressure will move across the Southeast & northern Gulf with dry boundary layer conditions across Central Alabama.
549 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 (Today and tonight) Some patchy frost will be possible early this morning, with a couple of locations already at or below freezing across central and western OK and localized light winds. This high will shift southeastward to the TX/LA gulf area Monday morning but again light winds, dry boundary layer conditions, and clear skies will result in excellent radiational cooling with lows in the upper 30s across northern OK.
437 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2023 In general, a tranquil forecast period ahead w/ large scale upper- level ridging in control across the central Rockies.
Low stratus this morning behind a departing cold front is diminishing and will further erode this afternoon. /86/ Today and Tonight: Looking at the synoptic scale, northwesterly flow between an upper-level ridge over the Rocky Mountains and a negatively- tilted low pressure system over the Upper Midwest is driving cold, dry air advection across the Gulf South today. As a cold front continues to push east of the forecast area this morning, the remnants of last night's showers and thunderstorms should clear out.
Later today, a weak cold front is expected to move through the area. A cold front will bring a line of showers and a few thunderstorms across the waters this afternoon, with increased winds and seas possible.
Highs will top out in the lower 70s. Southerly winds will increase on Monday as temperatures climb into the lower 80s. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Monday/ A couple of beautiful days are expected to finish out the weekend and to start the new week as high pressure builds into the Southern Plains behind yesterday's cold front. With temperatures climbing into the lower 80s and humidity around 20%, there could be some grass fire concerns west of I-35 Monday afternoon.
622 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 (Today and tonight) With the upper trough and surface cold front still west of the area, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to push across the area later this morning and through the afternoon hours.
Thermal profiles do appear cold enough to support a mix of rain/snow, especially north of a Quincy-to-Champaign line where dynamic cooling is more prevalent beneath the core of the upper low.
405 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2023 In general, a tranquil forecast period ahead w/ large scale upper- level ridging in control across the central Rockies.
(Today through Monday) Cold front is currently pushing through the Ranchlands. Tonight will be clear and cooler with lows in the mid 50s. By Monday, high pressure returns over Deep South Texas and winds shift back to a southeasterly flow.
Surface cold front is just pushing into western TN and is expected to move quickly eastward through majority of mid state region expect Upper Cumberland Region by shortly after sunrise today. West winds will continue to build in behind this frontal system with sustained winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph through today as a relatively strong surface pressure gradient develops behind surface cold frontal passage. Broad upper level troughing will move through mid state region tonight setting up dry northwesterly flow aloft through Monday. High pressure influences across central contiguous U.
1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 (Today through Monday) Cold front is currently pushing through the Ranchlands. Tonight will be clear and cooler with lows in the mid 50s. By Monday, high pressure returns over Deep South Texas and winds shift back to a southeasterly flow.
High temperatures look on track to reach into the mid to upper 70s across southeastern portions of the forecast area, with cooler temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s over the remainder of southeast MS and interior southwest AL behind the passing cold front.
447 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 As of 19Z, a cold front is tracking across the CWA with gusty showers. As for the rest of the forecast period, winds continue Monday with colder temperatures as northwesterly flow within a negatively titled trough are present. Upper-level ridging slowly builds in from the west through the day but the closed upper-level circulation will bring a few scattered showers to the far northern tier of counties before exiting to the northeast. However, due to the CAA remaining in place, temperatures will remain on the cooler side.
1210 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 (Rest of Today) Narrow line of light rain/showers is moving eastward across the I-65 corridor, with a trailing cold front crossing thru NW AL. Cloud cover will then gradually diminish from the west this afternoon, as highs struggle to climb past the lower/mid 60s for most spots.
315 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 As of 19Z, a cold front is tracking across the CWA with gusty showers. As for the rest of the forecast period, winds continue Monday with colder temperatures as northwesterly flow within a negatively titled trough are present. Upper-level ridging slowly builds in from the west through the day but the closed upper-level circulation will bring a few scattered showers to the far northern tier of counties before exiting to the northeast. However, due to the CAA remaining in place, temperatures will remain on the cooler side.
There are hints of a building ridge by the end of the week, resulting in a gradual warming and brief drying trend. Since the CAPE associated with the upper level negatively tilted trof is not very tall with the tropopause estimated to reside near 400mb any thunderstorms that form this afternoon and early evening are expected to be shallow and short lived and any hail that may form would have a short residence time and thus should be small.
There is still a small chance that as the winds veer to southwest later this afternoon and early evening and a cumulus line may develop, mainly along the Lower Keys.
Issued by National Weather Service Birmingham AL 244 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 (This afternoon through Monday) The surface cold front has entered into northwest Georgia and is starting to approach the Atlanta Metro. As the front continues moving eastward across Georgia and the longwave trough axis swings across the eastern Conus, dry westerly to northwesterly flow will quickly clear clouds out of the forecast area. Cooler temperatures are expected overnight tonight behind the front, with lower 40s possible across the north Georgia mountains and lower 50s in the far southeast.
--Temperatures drop near to below freezing tonight. --Dry, warmer Monday. Upper level trough/low continues to deepen as well as it crosses the state this afternoon into tonight just behind the surface features. This upper-level trough is expected to lift into the Great Lakes Region overnight into tomorrow morning with ridging building into the Central U. With the strongest winds offset from the lowest RH values and recent rain/snow, what would appear to be a day of elevated fire weather conditions will likely be somewhat muted. Temperatures are also expected to fall near to below freezing across much of the area tonight as strong cold air advection continues to flow into the state.
Discussion: A narrow line of showers along a cold front is currently crossing the area. A cooler and drier air mass builds into the area tonight behind the front, and lows in most locations will be in the lower to mid 40s. Some 30s are expected in the higher elevations, but winds are expected to stay up through the night, preventing widepsread frost.
1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 (Today and tonight) Following yesterday's cold front, conditions will be a touch cooler for Sunday.
There may be a slight potential where snowpack remains and melting was ongoing today, but will leave fog out of the forecast for now given the low confidence. In the east where snowpack remains, highs in the low 40s are forecast.
344 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 A cold front will bring showers and storms to the region today and cooler temperatures to begin the work week. FROPA should begin across eastern Ohio zones by late afternoon and be east of the ridges by mid evening. Isolated to scattered rain showers will continue Monday as the upper low associated with today's front passes to the north.
Seasonal temperatures, light winds, and dry conditions continue today, with high pressure in place.
with cooler and much drier air advecting into the state through the short term. Tonight will be mostly clear as a high pressure begins to form over the AL/MS coast. with a few areas reaching the low 20s.
Massive height falls continue tonight as the upper low approaches Lower Michigan. Instability is not strong, although with the upper low we can expect some diurnal enhancement to the snow shower activity on Monday afternoon, but temperatures in the upper 30s should limit accums to only the snow rates associated with deeper convective updrafts.
(This evening through Monday) High pressure is building at the surface, leaving calmer winds this evening and overnight. Ridging at mid levels will persist this afternoon through Monday morning, allowing for clear skies. As the high pressure and ridge begins to move eastward, winds will shift at the surface and aloft.
1235 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Cooler and drier conditions ongoing this morning as a high pressure builds into the area.
- Near freezing temperatures possible Monday morning, with temps quickly rebounding Monday afternoon into the 60s.
150 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 (Today and tonight) Some patchy frost will be possible early this morning, with a couple of locations already at or below freezing across central and western OK and localized light winds. This high will shift southeastward to the TX/LA gulf area Monday morning but again light winds, dry boundary layer conditions, and clear skies will result in excellent radiational cooling with lows in the upper 30s across northern OK.
The center of high pressure over N TX will move SE toward SW LA by daybreak. Skies remain sunny and lows around daybreak will be in the lower to mid 40s for an average.
(Tonight) Clearing skies and seasonably cooler/drier wx is spreading into the central TN Valley this early Sun afternoon, following the passage of a cold front earlier today. Temps are likely near their highs for today as well, which are mainly in the lower/mid 60s for most spots. Temps later tonight look to fall predom into the lower/mid 40s for lows.
(This afternoon through Monday Night) The cold front has moved east of Middle Tennessee and taken the showers with it. Of course, cooler temperatures are already filling in behind the surface boundary, and with gusty winds. So look for sunny skies tomorrow with cooler temperatures and gusty winds continuing.
High pressure will begin to nose eastward into the region on Monday, which should help limit winds a bit.
(This afternoon through Monday) Beautiful Sunday going across much of the midSouth and plains with fresh high pressure arriving on NW winds 10-20 mph. Top of the hour readings are right on the diurnal curve with no changes needed to highs today as we will be some 10-20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
1205 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 (Today through Monday Night) Quiet cool/dry weather is expected across SE TX these next couple of days (per the passage of a cold front overnight). Moderate to strong north/northeast winds today along with clearing skies will keep high temperatures in the lower and mid 70s this afternoon. Highs will be a tad warmer (mid to upper 70s) along with Mon night lows (mid to upper 50s for most areas and lower to mid 60s for H-town metro south to the beaches).
Satellite water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a couplet of low pressure circulations off the coast of Canada. These lows will dance around each other through early this week, bringing a couple of cold fronts and some unsettled weather, including snow, to the Northern Rockies starting overnight tonight. In the meantime, expect an afternoon of fair weather today under increasing high clouds forming ahead of the first cold front, which is also visible on satellite imagery over the Pacific Northwest.
From a conceptual point of view, this area will be right under the nose of the low level thermal ridge.
Weak upper ridging continues Monday with some hints at some passing weak mid level energy during the afternoon.
Highs will top out in the low to mid 70s with a north breeze and low humidity thanks to yesterday's strong cold front.
158 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Showers and thunderstorms may develop later today and tonight in advance of a cold front that will push offshore late.
1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 (Today through Monday) West-northwesterly flow aloft will prevail across the region through the short term, with high pressure at the surface building into and then moving east of the region. Winds will remain breezy at times out of the northeast through this morning and possibly the early afternoon before beginning to diminish and turn east/southeasterly as high pressure becomes more centered over the region. With high pressure sliding to the east of the region, breezy southeasterly winds are expected during the day tomorrow. Therefore, other than some mid and upper level cloud cover returning, Monday should be a pleasant spring day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and minimum RH in the low 20s to low 30s.
141 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 A cold front will bring showers and storms to the region today and cooler temperatures to begin the work week. FROPA should begin across eastern Ohio zones by late afternoon and be east of the ridges by mid evening. Isolated to scattered rain showers will continue Monday as the upper low associated with today's front passes to the north.
1024 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Cooler and drier conditions ongoing this morning as a high pressure builds into the area.
High pressure aloft is building in from the west. Temperatures across the plains are about 10 degrees F warmer than they were yesterday at this time. We'll have a quiet day today, with dry air, light west winds aloft, and temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday.
246 PM MDT Sun Apr 16 2023 The in incoming upper ridge's axis is near the western Colorado border at this time. Models have the upper ridge axis over the CWA tonight and Monday morning. Thickness grids point temperatures are 4-8 C to temperatures being some 4-7 C warmer than today's highs.
Southwest flow aloft will continue to provide warmer temperatures across the region today. Gusty winds will develop ahead of a Pacific cold front this afternoon. Melting of the lower and mid-elevation snowpack will continue through Monday after today's warm weather.
Clear skies and light winds will provide good radiational cooling conditions, with favored locations in northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas seeing lows within a degree or two of freezing.
1138 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2023 In general, a tranquil forecast period ahead w/ large scale upper- level ridging in control across the central Rockies.
Southerly sfc flow will allow for slightly warmer daytime temperatures with highs climbing into the the mid to upper 70s. Monday night's low will range from the low 50s to upper 60s under mostly cloudy skies.
High temperatures stay above normal with the chance for somewhat cooler temperatures possible as a backdoor front could be seen.
(Tonight through Monday night) High pressure across the area is bringing pleasant conditions to much of South Central Texas this afternoon. Lows will be cooler than normal overnight from the upper 40s into the 50s with shifting winds from the southeast as high pressure slides to the east.
Closed upper low over northern Illinois will lift NNE tonight, and become vertically stacked with its sfc reflection near Green Bay. Cold pool showers pinwheeling around the low could get very close to our southern Indiana counties, especially tonight.
(This afternoon through Monday night) Return flow is progressing nicely as surface anticyclogenesis shifts east away from the Southern High Plains and lee troughing is beginning. A minor short wave trough is forecast by a consensus of the models to affect west Texas and southeastern New Mexico beginning late tonight and continuing through Monday. The aforementioned short wave trough will exit stage left Monday evening, leaving subsidence and an end to precipitation chances. In terms of temperatures, lows tonight will be about 10 degrees warmer than this morning's chilly lows; in other words, close to normal.
System over the upper Mississippi valley will continue to to trudge east overnight as ridging aloft advects into and across the Northern Plains.
300 PM MDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the Great Lakes region with high pressure centered over the Plains. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over eastern IA, with ridge over the Rockies region.
Temperatures are warming into the lower 70s today with clear skies and ample sunshine. Tomorrow, weak lee troughing will develop with an increase in the low level jet over West Texas. Breezy southwest winds will occur through the day with warm air advection leading to temperatures returning to the lower 80s. A weak disturbance in the westerly flow associated with a narrow across the central CONUS will help to give way to thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of New Mexico. Models show a slight increase in the moisture around 500- 700mb with the potential for storms to move into the High Plains tomorrow afternoon and evening.
250 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 The large upper trough that pushed a cold front through the area will be moving eastward tonight into Monday, leaving behind a cooler and drier airmass in its wake.