Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The NBM outputs minimum temperatures near freezing over portions of the northern Brush Country. Further, the HREF ensemble outputs a near zero probability of freezing surface temperatures tonight. The WPC 24 hour 50th percentile freezing rain accumulation ending at 18z Thursday is zero. Decreasing cloud cover will contribute to warmer temperatures Thursday afternoon, especially west (concur with the HREF ensemble mean/NBM temperatures. HREF output suggest that near freezing temperatures may occur over the extreme northern CWA Thursday night.
Fortunately, winds have decreased at our southeast Wyoming wind prone locations, allowing the High Wind Warnings to expire. Decent low level mixing will make for a little less cold temperatures, with slightly warmer minimums along the I-25 corridor where winds will be higher.
Overnight low temperatures should be a bit warmer than last night but still quite cold across most of the area. Downslope warming will keep low temperatures near normal in the Front Range foothills and adjacent plains, but cold air will continue to pool in the low lying areas leading to strong radiation inversions and temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Tomorrow, looks to be pretty similar to today as the ridge slowly advances. The gradual warming trend should continue bringing temperatures a few degrees warmer.
334 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2023 Northwest flow has set in as ridging builds across the West.
As this system continues to near the coast, look for southerly winds to increase ahead of the system resulting in slightly warmer temperatures overnight and into Thursday morning. Breezy southerly winds will continue through Thursday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
640 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 High pressure centered to our south will keep fair weather here for Thursday.
614 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Weak 500 mb closed low over NW Mexico continues to stream moisture across our region, while frontal boundary has dipped cold air into the area, especially the NW third.
559 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 A cold front currently situate from around Regina SK to Havre MT, will move south through the area tonight bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air, along with breezy to windy conditions and a brief period of light snow. Temperatures continue increase across the region as ridging builds over the Northern Rockies. Current temperatures range spans from the low 30s in the southwest to single digits in the northeast. Early tomorrow morning an Arctic cold front will push through the state. Gusty winds are expected along the frontal passage, but poor timing and weak subsidence will keep most of the higher winds aloft.
A weak area of low pressure moving across central Montana this evening is very limited in moisture, but enough lift and instability associated with a cold front dropping south from Saskatchewan is causing some scattered flurries and snow showers to develop and move southeast. Only a few of the high-resolution models are picking up on it.
504 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 A sharp cold front will pass through our region later on Thursday.
The strong cold front being monitored is moving through northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota. Breezy winds will return tonight into Thursday morning across the forecast area (northerly, gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range), as a cold front with good CAA/mixing moves through.
The freezing line has remained nearly stationary from Iuka MS through northern Lauderdale County to Fayetteville and Lynchburg TN in Lincoln and Moore Counties. Reports have indicated ice accumulation mainly on elevated surfaces, but a few slick spots are possible on bridges and overpasses. Since some of these areas have remained at or below freezing for nearly 24 hours, elevated surfaces remain at risk for ice accumulation.
With much of the guidance is supportive of this low stratus and fog moving in and so a dense fog advisory was issued for inland northeast FL counties at this time. So main updates were to include dense fog and tweak the low temps down a bit based on the guidance and IR imagery showing conditions for good radiational cooling.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Key Messages: -Cold front arrives on Thursday with push of colder air.
The freezing line remains in place from just northwest of KMSL through KFYM and KTHA in southern middle TN. A combo of freezing drizzle and fog has now become freezing rain in these areas with a light glaze reported on elevated surfaces. We do not see temperatures changing much if at all through tonight, with additional freezing rain or drizzle expected at times. Rain will become more widespread overnight in these areas with temps staying above freezing.
We are seeing quiet conditions this afternoon across NorCal with upper level ridging in place. These high clouds should be enough to keep us a bit warmer than last night but it will still be a chilly night across the area. Any fog will lift quick and clouds will continue to increase tomorrow as a short wave trough begins to approach. Apart from the cloud cover we will see another quiet day with slightly warmer daytime highs.
High pressure has shifted into the Ohio Valley which has brought the dvn cwa wall-to-wall sunshine, southwest winds and warmer temperatures.
312 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2023 Northwest flow has set in as ridging builds across the West.
913 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 Rain continues to spread into the area from the west with places on the northern and western periphery still around freezing. (This evening through Thursday) Weak 500 mb closed low over NW Mexico continues to stream moisture across our region, while frontal boundary has dipped cold air into the area, especially the NW third.
553 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 Warming trend over the next couple of days will lead to high temperatures in the low to mid 30s by Thursday afternoon.
658 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 High pressure centered to our south will keep fair weather here for Thursday.
Key Messages: - A backdoor cold front will track across the area through Thursday bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air with the potential for snow showers/flurries across portions of central and north central Nebraska.
622 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 Tonight and Thursday: Mid afternoon surface analysis still had the freezing line across our southeast Arkansas zones and northwest Mississippi zones. By sunrise Thursday morning the closed low over the baja peninsula this afternoon will be an open trough over the southern Plains. Temperatures will remain well below normal but our whole CWA will climb well above freezing during the morning negating any concern for additional freezing rain. /22/ Thursday night - next Wednesday: Rain will taper off Thursday night in the wake of a low pressure system.
729 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 A sharp cold front will pass through our region later on Thursday.
Timing on tonight's cold front remains on track for passage during the late overnight hours.
303 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 Tonight and Thursday: Mid afternoon surface analysis still had the freezing line across our southeast Arkansas zones and northwest Mississippi zones. By sunrise Thursday morning the closed low over the baja peninsula this afternoon will be an open trough over the southern Plains. Temperatures will remain well below normal but our whole CWA will climb well above freezing during the morning negating any concern for additional freezing rain. /22/ Thursday night - next Wednesday: Rain will taper off Thursday night in the wake of a low pressure system.
Cooler temperatures will also spread over the area today. Water vapor shows an upper level low centered over Sonora that will move eastward today into tonight. In the wake of the trough ridging will be in place leading to a warmup Thursday through the weekend.
1046 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 (The rest of tonight) Deeper moist plume continues to overspread low level cold air- mass this evening across southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas ahead of upper low approaching far west Texas. Scattered convective precip has recently developed across far southeast Oklahoma with the potential for pockets of heavier freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet. Temperatures are expected to remain below freezing through the overnight hours in most locations with the freezing rain threat continuing. Highest ice accumulations are still expected in the higher terrain and across portions of western/central Choctaw county, which as mentioned earlier, should stay at or below freezing.
The cool down Friday will be brief however, as the weekend will feature a series of progressive, low amplitude, troughs and ridges traversing the area.
1124 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 A sharp cold front will pass through our region later on Thursday. Quiet weather is expected to continue this evening and overnight across central Illinois under the influence of high pressure centered along the Ohio River Valley. Initial forecast concern this period will be with the critical sunrise sky conditions for Groundhog's Day, followed by the arrival of a sharp cold front during the afternoon. As we go through the day on Thursday, a strong cold front will drop down from the north in the afternoon. Several of the high-res models have it near I-55 by mid afternoon, but the cold air will lag behind a bit and highs in the upper 30s or lower 40s are likely over the CWA on Thursday.
1152 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 Dry weather is expected until the approach and passage of an arctic cold front Thursday night and Friday that will introduce isolated to scattered snow showers and seasonably cold air.
145 AM MST Thu Feb 2 2023 High pressure building over the region will result in continued dry conditions with a warming trend to above normal going into the weekend.
The strong cold front being monitored is moving through northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota. Breezy winds will return tonight into Thursday morning across the forecast area (northerly, gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range), as a cold front with good CAA/mixing moves through. The period starts off with the region between an upper level trough to the east and a building ridge to the west.
Ahead of the front with a notable warmer start (24 hr temp change 10-20 degrees over yesterday AM) as a launch pad, and abundant sunshine this morning and SW winds we should see a boost in temps well into the 30s to lower 40s in the light to no snow covered areas along/s of I-80, with 20s in the deeper snow cover north.
After some early morning fog another beautiful winter day is expected across the area as high pressure east of the Bahamas holds on. Tonight into Friday a cold front will approach and move across the region preceded and accompanied by showers and a few thunderstorms. Breezy northwest to north winds behind the boundary will usher in a cooler drier airmass for late Friday and Friday night as high pressure builds in from the north.
Main concern in the near term is the potential for fog or freezing fog today into early Friday behind a backdoor cold front.
However, surface RHs quickly drop off to the north, leaving a narrow region in which there is some potential for freezing drizzle or very light sleet/snow to reach the ground. The bigger concern will be cold temperatures early this morning in the 20s enabling refreezing of mainly rural and secondary roads with black ice development. High pressure is keeping winds calm in the Quad State region through the early morning hours. As skies begin to clear, highs finally reach well above freezing, allowing for significant melting of icy surfaces. Highs were lowered towards the lower end of the model range as icy surfaces and lingering clouds inhibit warming. Cold weather continues Friday with highs near or below freezing as high pressure moves southeastward towards the Quad State.
Timing on tonight's cold front remains on track for passage during the late overnight hours. Cold front tonight will bring the potential for blowing snow impacts. Very cold airmass across the region behind the cold front Thursday into Friday will lead to dangerous wind chills, and issued a wind chill advisory for this hazard. This weekend brings a rapid warm up as a ridge migrates over the region with temps above normal.
(Today and tonight) As of 2 AM, the final bout of light freezing rain was making steady progress east from the southern South Plains and into the Rolling Plains. This axis of precip coincided with favorable ascent ahead of a positively tilted trough axis bisecting the CWA. Behind the trough axis, deep subsidence and clearing skies already in our NW zones will sweep east and allow temps to finally rebound into the 40s and 50s under full sun. Temps remain on track to edge above freezing region wide by 9-10 AM, so will leave the expiration times alone. Radiational cooling gears up tonight as dry surface ridging expands south on light northerly winds under continued clear skies.
The higher level stream of moisture/cirrus which has fringed portions of southern Kansas will exit later in the day as the southern stream upper trof finally moves eastward across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, a stronger vort lobe rotating around the upper low over eastern Canada will allow another frigid airmass to overspread the eastern portions of the conus later today into Friday.
Warmer air aloft will moderate temperatures overnight with lows in the single digits to teens above zero. While winds will shift north with the sfc front in the morning, temperatures are expected to fall through the afternoon as the strongest CAA push spreads southward and north winds gust 20-30 mph (slightly stronger along higher elevations of the MN Buffalo Ridge). A passing warm front transitions us to quasi-zonal flow aloft starting Friday night, prompting significantly warmer weather.
1136 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 (This evening through Friday) As of 1 PM CST, a band of light freezing rain mixed with occasional sleet continues to traverse across southern, southeastern, and east- central Arkansas. Across western Arkansas, a secondary complex (our 3rd and final wave associated with this system) of wintry precipitation is moving from northeastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas consisting mostly of freezing rain.
1247 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 Rain continues to spread into the area from the west with places on the northern and western periphery still around freezing. (This evening through Thursday) Weak 500 mb closed low over NW Mexico continues to stream moisture across our region, while frontal boundary has dipped cold air into the area, especially the NW third. This low will move into the ArkLaTex Thursday evening and then into the Southeast Friday morning, ending the precip here.
(This afternoon through Thursday) Old cold front has moved just south of the CWA and will become stationary. A wave of low pressure will move along this boundary Thursday into Friday.
Ridge of high pressure will produce dry weather today. Warmer temperatures are accompanying the ridge with highs likely to be near or above freezing on Friday. A weak trough will slide through Friday night. Some light snow is possible across the high country, but any accumulations are less than an inch.
(The rest of tonight) Deeper moist plume continues to overspread low level cold air- mass this evening across southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas ahead of upper low approaching far west Texas. Scattered convective precip has recently developed across far southeast Oklahoma with the potential for pockets of heavier freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet. Temperatures are expected to remain below freezing through the overnight hours in most locations with the freezing rain threat continuing. Highest ice accumulations are still expected in the higher terrain and across portions of western/central Choctaw county, which as mentioned earlier, should stay at or below freezing.
Despite a weak upper level trough sliding through, plenty of sunshine was seen across the region this afternoon with southwesterly flow ushering in warmer air. This will bring cooler temperatures to the area, with highs on Thursday in the mid 20s to mid 30s and nearly area-wide highs in the 20s Friday.
241 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 Wedge conditions will remain over the area today with a cold front moving into the area this evening.
318 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 Seasonable temperatures are forecast today as high pressure moves off to the east. A colder airmass will spread into the Ohio Valley tonight into Friday as a cold front moves through the region. A cold front will push southeast across our area tonight, ushering in a much cooler airmass heading into Friday.
1121 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 Dry weather is expected until the approach and passage of an arctic cold front Thursday night and Friday that will introduce isolated to scattered snow showers and seasonably cold air.
RW (This afternoon through Thursday) Old cold front has moved just south of the CWA and will become stationary. A wave of low pressure will move along this boundary Thursday into Friday.
(Today through Friday) Conditions for the start of the short term period will continue to be dry and sunny thanks to a deep ridge of high pressure extending across the Florida peninsula. The influence of this trough will allow for a low-level mass response that features veering winds out of the south-southwest allowing for persistent warm air advection to be realized over South Florida through Friday.
Mean layer ridging that is dominating across the region has slid slightly eastward in the last 24 hours and is not centered roughly near Andros Island. The lower level ridge is more or less collocated in the same area. From synopsis: gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail into Thursday as high pressure slowly recedes to the east into the western North Atlantic. Breezes will slacken Thursday night and Friday ahead of a cold front that will near the coastal waters of the Florida Keys late Friday.
With much of the guidance is supportive of this low stratus and fog moving in and so a dense fog advisory was issued for inland northeast FL counties at this time. So main updates were to include dense fog and tweak the low temps down a bit based on the guidance and IR imagery showing conditions for good radiational cooling. (Thursday through Friday night) Ahead of an approaching cold front, warm temperatures and increased cold cover will occur on Thursday, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s area-wide, and near 80 in our southern most counties.
Overnight low temperatures should be a bit warmer than last night but still quite cold across most of the area. Downslope warming will keep low temperatures near normal in the Front Range foothills and adjacent plains, but cold air will continue to pool in the low lying areas leading to strong radiation inversions and temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Tomorrow, looks to be pretty similar to today as the ridge slowly advances. The gradual warming trend should continue bringing temperatures a few degrees warmer. Upper ridging will move and across the CWA Thursday night into Friday evening.
High pressure has shifted into the Ohio Valley which has brought the dvn cwa wall-to-wall sunshine, southwest winds and warmer temperatures. Friday afternoon: Strong Arctic high pressure (1042 mb) will settle across the area with light winds. Friday night: The high pressure system quickly moves into the Ohio Valley returning a brisk southerly wind, with gusts 25 to 30 mph.
(Today through Friday) A mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and even a little bit of snow this morning across Middle Tennessee will gradually give way to light rain showers this afternoon as temperatures rise into the upper 30s to around 40.
A reinforcing cold front will work through the area Thursday with winds shifting to the northwest.
1204 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 Warming trend over the next couple of days will lead to high temperatures in the low to mid 30s by Thursday afternoon. An arctic cold front will usher in much colder temperatures Thursday night into Friday with a period of lake effect snow showers possible. Sub- freezing temperatures remains the main weather impact at this time and lows tonight will fall into the mid to upper teens, which is at least some improvement over the last couple of nights. Thursday some locations will actually warm to above freezing into the mid 30s, especially the southern half of our CWA. The northern half of the area looks to remain just below the freezing mark. High temperatures on Friday will only get into the mid to upper teens, northwest Ohio counties may only get into the lower teens.
(Today and tonight) A mid and upper level trough to our west, will move across the southern Plains today. This will result in areas of light freezing rain, mainly across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas this morning. By noon, the northwest 1/2 of Oklahoma should see abundant sunshine with temperatures well above freezing. Early this evening, a cold front will move into northern Oklahoma and will push across a majority of the state by early Friday morning.
Quite a bit of mid/high cloudiness will continue to stream overhead in front of an upper trough stretching from the Great Lakes to northern Mexico. High temperatures this afternoon should be around the lower 40s. Tonight a cold front will sweep through the region from north to south, pushed along by strong high pressure over the northern Plains.
217 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023 Key Messages: * Cold front moves through this morning.
1154 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 Tonight and Thursday: Mid afternoon surface analysis still had the freezing line across our southeast Arkansas zones and northwest Mississippi zones. By sunrise Thursday morning the closed low over the baja peninsula this afternoon will be an open trough over the southern Plains. Temperatures will remain well below normal but our whole CWA will climb well above freezing during the morning negating any concern for additional freezing rain.
Wind potential ramps up again tonight under building ridge, warm advection and tightening gradients.
Anticipate a large range in high temps today from the low/mid 40s far south to the upper 20s/near 30 over the deepest snowpack near the WI border. Arctic cold front will enter northern IL late this afternoon, likely resulting in temps falling across far north prior to sunset.
With that said, temperatures along and north of I-10 remain below freezing. Wet pavements have begun to refreeze across this area and any light freezing rain or drizzle may add a light glaze of ice to area roads through the early morning hours. By sunrise, the upper-level low pressure will move overhead. Temperatures along and north of Highway 90 can expect below freezing temperatures so a few slick spots can continue to be expected on area roads. Northwesterly winds develop and filter in warmer and drier air as the upper-level low moves east of the region by late morning. Everyone north of the Rio Grande Valley can expect low temperatures below freezing due to excellent radiational cooling.
The cold front is just pushing into northern ND, with snow reported at Crosby and Rolla and a brief period of snow at Williston. A cold front currently situate from around Regina SK to Havre MT, will move south through the area tonight bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air, along with breezy to windy conditions and a brief period of light snow. Temperatures continue increase across the region as ridging builds over the Northern Rockies. Current temperatures range spans from the low 30s in the southwest to single digits in the northeast. Early tomorrow morning an Arctic cold front will push through the state. Gusty winds are expected along the frontal passage, but poor timing and weak subsidence will keep most of the higher winds aloft.
920 PM PST Wed Feb 1 2023 Clear and cold again tonight, followed by a warmer day Thursday under sunny skies.
Closer to the hills temperatures are slightly warmer - in the mid- to- upper 30s. Backdoor cold front pushes south-southwest into region tonight into Thursday. The western portions of SD into northeastern WY will be relatively warmer with highs in the 20s to low 30s. Forecast soundings hint at the potential for freezing drizzle or fog on Thursday night. Milder this weekend as a warm front moves into the region late Thursday night into Friday.