Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
323 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 A large upper low will move slowly eastward across the Great Lakes and into New England through the short term period. A disturbance rotating around the upper low will bring some showers not far northeast of our southwest Indiana territory, but we will keep the forecast dry.
207 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue today as a weak cold front crosses the area late this afternoon. Tonight: The cold front will be pushing eastward to the coast this evening, ending convection from west to east. Some drier air will build in as weak high pressure builds over the area. Despite the front pushing south of the forecast area, little change in temperatures are expected as lows will again be in the lower to mid 60s. An upper level low pressure system over the Great Lakes will provide zonal flow over the Southeast U. A frontal boundary should be located just to the south of The Midlands and CSRA on Tuesday, however an approaching short wave trough should lift this boundary back into the area later in the day through Tuesday Night.
(This evening through Tuesday) Scattered showers and some thunderstorms across the southeastern Panhandle are on their way east as an upper level short wave trough helping drive this convection is moving across northeastern New Mexico. Another, likely weaker, upper trough is progged to move across northern new Mexico tomorrow and may be able to tap into lingering low level moisture to produce some additional showers and thunder, especially if there remains an isentropic component as we are seeing today just above the cool air mass that is in place across the forecast area. As a result will keep with the NBM which is currently closer to the warmer MAV numbers, especially across the southern zones.
Light precipitation over portions of NW WI are possible as an upper level low pressure with embedded disturbances will circulate around the low centered over northern Lake Michigan.
Cooler conditions continue into Tuesday before a warming trend occurs the rest of the week. A cooler, drier airmass continues to move over the area, keeping afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Tuesday will yield slightly warmer temperatures, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Warm and unsettled weather to start the week as a longwave trough makes it's way across the eastern US. Temperatures will be slightly cooler and near normal in the upper 80s due to the cloud coverage. On the backside of the frontal boundary, and before the western Atlantic ridge axis expands, there will be a another round of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday before the dry air enters. Temperatures will be on a warming trend with highs rising into the low 90s across the entire region.
Synoptic upper-level composite analysis places the eastern third of the United States under the influence of broad cyclonic flow, with the Florida Peninsula at the southern periphery of an associated trough. Meanwhile, at the surface through mid-levels, high pressure in the central Atlantic is extending a ridge axis across the South Florida mainland. Owed to the aforementioned trough, general thinking is afternoon solar insolation should allow the troposphere to recharge, with convection flourishing later this afternoon or evening across the CWA. The low-level ridge will continue to strengthen and inch westward over the next several days. Meanwhile, the upper-level trough will finally progress eastward and away from Florida.
Mild low temperatures expected tonight, staying in the lower 70s area- wide.
1206 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Rain will clear from west to east through early afternoon with the crossing cold front. Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half of the week behind the cold front. The cold front continues to work its way across the area from west to east, with showers clearing behind. However, clouds will be slow to clear, leaving dry, but cloudy and cooler conditions for the remainder of the day. The closed upper low over the Great Lakes will make little eastward progress into Tuesday. By Tuesday morning, rainfall will rotate around the backside of this low and into the Ohio Valley, eventually reaching the Pittsburgh area by Tuesday afternoon/evening, and continuing into the overnight.
Today: Another round of thunderstorms may develop on the higher terrain to the west, and if they do develop, they would move downslope and possibly impact the northwestern combined Panhandles.
Cold front and outflow has sagged south of I-2o early this afternoon, with clouds and light rain across Abilene. Weak cold front will move south through the Big Country this afternoon, likely moving along a Sterling City. A dryline may extend from Ozona to San Angelo to a triple point along the dryline/front at Ballinger or Coleman Dew points will be in the upper 60s to around 70s along the weak cold front with very strong instabilities. There is also the potential for a tornado along the boundary/cold front.
116 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023 19Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated large upper level low near the UT/NV border with apparent short wave trough lifting out of southern Colorado. With short wave trough providing forcing for large scale ascent and an airmass that will be relatively unstable with minimal heating, expect to see an increase in thunderstorms through the next few hours along western and southern borders which will gradually fill in overnight as trough lifts to the north. Trough will advance north overnight, but may actually get blocked by ridge axis to the north of the area.
In addition we should see some lower level troughiness as well, especially later tonight into Tuesday.
This means convection today will not be dependent on breaking out of the low clouds and precip and with effective MU CAPE near 1500 J/KG (lifting at about 5000 FT), and 45-55 KT 1000-500mb bulk shear the a marginal risk of severe storms is be warranted even if we stay grundged in all day, which may happen.
208 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Drier and cooler weather will build into the area from the west today as weak high pressure wedges in from the mid Mississippi Valley.
Cooler air in the wake of a cold front passage last night, and high pressure building in from the north will continue the cooler trend tonight. Strong enough lift ahead of this system aloft, despite the cooler air at the surface will be sufficient to get more showers forming in the overnight hours.
1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 (Rest of Today) After a stormy period and passage of a cold front last night, dry weather is in the forecast today, as high pressure builds in from the north.
312 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Large upper level low in place over the Great Lakes region, with the center (~550 DAM at 500 MB) over Lower Michigan. The center will drift east through Southeast Michigan tomorrow, and although the main moisture axis and forcing will be south of the Michigan border, the cold mid levels (-20 to -22 C at 500 MB), surface convergence/troughing and surface heating underneath the cold core will likely be sufficient to generate numerous showers/isolated thunderstorm activity as NAM soundings indicating EQL heights well above -20 C, granted the 500+ J/kg of sbcape is sliver thin. With some better cape density in and around the freezing mark (wet bulb zero heights under 7000 feet), some small hail will be possible.
Water vapor imagery suggests moisture transport from the Atlantic toward the north side of the low is ongoing. Through tonight and tomorrow, this moisture advection will improve as the low moves east and with it, the moist conveyor belt.
137 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Cooler weather will continue into Tuesday as an upper low lingers over the region. High temperatures will return to the low to mid 80s during the second half of this week. A discombobulated blocking pattern across North America will allow an upper low and associated very chilly air to linger over the Upper Great Lakes region into Tuesday.
343 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 The upper low continues to spin over the area this afternoon, centered over northern Lake Michigan for now but expected to move into the northern LP this evening. As the upper low moves into the LP, this next batch of rain should pivot south/southwest over the UP, directed generally over the central UP through the night. Expect lows in the lower to mid 40s area-wide.
1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night ) Showers and thunderstorms had come to an end across AR thanks to the passage of an backdoor cold front. Early Monday morning readings were in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
106 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Strato-cu and cumulus within backwash of low pressure will continue to slowly scatter out as bases lift into the evening. Any clearing will be within a relatively small window as trough rotates back around this low and brings showers back to the area by early Tuesday morning with varying shower coverage and MVFR to lower VFR ceilings throughout Tuesday, especially south of KFNT.
Showers and thunderstorms have developed across southwest Montana and Lemhi County in the vicinity of a mid-level low pressure circulation. HREF probabilistic guidance projects the highest threat of thunderstorms (>60% chance) across Clearwater, Idaho, and Lemhi Counties in Idaho, across southwest Montana, and along the ID/MT border in northwest Montana.
999mb low pressure is somewhat north of YYZ, moving north. It will lift n and then w tonight, seemingly in pursuit of the 500mb closed low which settles over central lower MI. Despite a cutoff upper level low stalled out across the region over the last couple of days, minimal amounts of rainfall have fallen across the area. This scenario looks like it will remain the case through the short term forecast with the upper level low only slowly edging off to our east.
The upper low that has brought in ample moisture to the midlevels of the atmosphere continues to weaken and trek east into the 4 Corners region, so expecting moisture supply that's been fueling these showers to wane. Temperatures tomorrow will be slightly warmer as airmass aloft warms in response to east-west oriented ridging over NorCal nudging southward.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Message: - Dangerous heat expected to continue across the region - Heat Advisory tomorrow with the potential for an Extreme Heat Warning The region remains under ridging with a stationary mid-level high over Mexico. At the surface there's high pressure over the Southern Plains and an thermal low spread across west Texas into southeastern NM.
The higher resolution models are even showing an area of moderate to locally heavy rain across the South Hills and Albion Mountains in the morning.
The stronger winds will be over the northern parts of the CWA as it's closer to the low pressure system to the north. WAA is expected to warm high temperatures into the low 80s over the western side of the CWA while those on the eastern side only see the mid 70s.
Additional development near the Red River is expected late tonight as the frontal boundary across TX begins to lift north as a warm front.
850 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 A cold front will move through the area late this afternoon through this evening. Low pressure lingers across the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with mainly dry conditions over the local area.
Meanwhile, another weak trough currently off the SoCal coast will continue to linger near/over southern California through at least mid- week with a broad ridge over the eastern Pacific, leaving NorCal under northerly flow.
750 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 The upper low continues to spin over the area this afternoon, centered over northern Lake Michigan for now but expected to move into the northern LP this evening. As the upper low moves into the LP, this next batch of rain should pivot south/southwest over the UP, directed generally over the central UP through the night. Expect lows in the lower to mid 40s area-wide.
Key Message An upper low will rotate several bands of shower through our northeastern CWA. Lows in the lower to mid 50s are forecast. Tuesday, another shower chance is found in the east, as another vort wraps around the upper low, with saturation and lift mainly over Chicago. The deep mixing with dry air should again bring a breezy day over our western 2/3rds CWA, with highs mainly in the lower 80s, while to the east, under more cloud, we top our in the lower to mid 70s.
Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half of the week in the wake of Monday's cold front. Clouds may linger a bit near the ridges (where upslope flow sustains them) and in the I-80 corridor (where upper-level clouds will limit dry-air mixing from above). Cold frontal passage is complete across the forecast area and showers have exited east. However, clouds will be slow to clear, leaving dry, but cloudy and cooler conditions for the remainder of the day. The closed upper low over the Great Lakes will make little eastward progress into Tuesday. By Tuesday morning, rainfall will rotate around the backside of this low and into the Ohio Valley, eventually reaching the Pittsburgh area by Tuesday afternoon/evening, and continuing through the overnight.
Trough over northeast Colorado slowly moves eastward during the day.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible the next couple of days as a weak area of low pressure aloft lingers over the region. Best chances will be across the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin and southern Sierra Nevada. Upper low which was initialized over southern Nevada this morning progged to shift east into the Four Corners region Tuesday. As this happens, all models depict a weak trough left hanging back over the Southwest.
638 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Scattered showers and some thunderstorms across the southeastern Panhandle are on their way east as an upper level short wave trough helping drive this convection is moving across northeastern New Mexico. Another, likely weaker, upper trough is progged to move across northern new Mexico tomorrow and may be able to tap into lingering low level moisture to produce some additional showers and thunder, especially if there remains an isentropic component as we are seeing today just above the cool air mass that is in place across the forecast area. As a result will keep with the NBM which is currently closer to the warmer MAV numbers, especially across the southern zones.
843 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 A cold front stalls over the Southeast which will lead to multiple round of thunderstorms through mid-week. Cold front moving through the area currently with dry air quickly funneling in behind the front as PWATs have dropped below an inch in the Upstate. Temperatures a bit cooler tonight as clouds clear from west to east and a cooler airmass with lows dropping into the low to mid 60s.
, 50 to 70kt @ H500) compete with a building subtropical ridge extending from southern TX into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Longwave troughing, and an unseasonably cool, dry boundary layer airmass in the wake of the cold front that moved across the region last night, will result in cooler than normal temperatures tonight and tomorrow. Dry and much cooler tonight. Discussion: Large closed low aloft encompasses the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon with a secondary disturbance moving out of the southern plains. Skies remain partly to mostly cloudy this afternoon behind a cold front that is now moving off the Appalachians. Winds have veered toward the west and northwest behind this front and this will advect a much cooler airmass into the area tonight. Overnight lows will be unseasonably cool with most locations in the lower to mid 50's.
The closed low near the UT-AZ-NV border will continue to fill and move to the east over the next 24hours. An extension of the legacy trough will persist across southern California through mid-week, keeping our pressure gradients low (lighter winds), heights suppressed (below normal temps), and generally featureless flow (little synoptic lift for precipitation creation). we're expecting fair weather through the week (and beyond), with winds picking up toward the end of the week as the gradient aloft increase with building heights (ridging) to our southeast.
Some storms are expected to develop in southeastern Colorado and in the High Plains.
Although, areas around Fort Payne could see cooler lows, in the mid 50s.
642 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Message: - Dangerous heat expected to continue across the region - Heat Advisory tomorrow with the potential for an Extreme Heat Warning The region remains under ridging with a stationary mid-level high over Mexico. At the surface there's high pressure over the Southern Plains and an thermal low spread across west Texas into southeastern NM.
521 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023 19Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated large upper level low near the UT/NV border with apparent short wave trough lifting out of southern Colorado. With short wave trough providing forcing for large scale ascent and an airmass that will be relatively unstable with minimal heating, expect to see an increase in thunderstorms through the next few hours along western and southern borders which will gradually fill in overnight as trough lifts to the north. Trough will advance north overnight, but may actually get blocked by ridge axis to the north of the area.
617 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) It's a tale of two air masses this afternoon, with a convectively reinforced cold front attempting to progress southwestward across the Permian Basin, impeding on warm, downsloping westerly to northwesterly surface flow. Aside from that, the region will remain dry today (and pretty much every day this week), with cooler temperatures in the lower to middle 80s across northern areas, 90s and lower 100s south and west of the aforementioned front.
Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear with lows falling to the low to mid 70s late tonight.
626 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Cold front has sagged all the way into the Concho Valley and Heartland this afternoon. As for temperatures, front will still have an affect on temperatures on Tuesday, with readings in the lower 90s across I-20 to near 100 again across the Concho Valley south into the Edwards Plateau.
932 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Broad low pressure aloft through mid week.
726 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Broad low pressure aloft through mid week.
One last day of high humidity and thunderstorms with heavy rain on Tuesday before an Pacific trough passage finally changes the airmass in place.
600 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 A large upper low will move slowly eastward across the Great Lakes and into New England through the short term period. A disturbance rotating around the upper low will bring some showers not far northeast of our southwest Indiana territory, but we will keep the forecast dry.
938 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 (Issued 938 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023) A stronger surge of moisture and lift in the form of the occluded low currently north of Georgian Bay, Canada will rotate around the upper low into srn WI for Tue. In addition we should see some lower level troughiness as well, especially later tonight into Tuesday.
JKL Already have showers and thunderstorms forming over the higher terrain and the slowly moving west. Temperatures will be a little warmer tomorrow than today, with most area will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Broad mid level troughing aligned across Florida is supporting a confluent lower level flow and slightly suppressed mid level heights. While the previously mentioned mid level troughing will dampen out some overnight the over all moist and confluent lower level flow will remain across our area. An Atlantic ridge extending westward across South Florida and the straits will maintain light south to southwesterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
1013 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Deep closed upper level low is slowly making its way eastward thru Lower Michigan late this evening. Unseasonably cool temps will persist with overnight lows mainly in the low to mid 40s. 999mb low pressure is somewhat north of YYZ, moving north. It will lift n and then w tonight, seemingly in pursuit of the 500mb closed low which settles over central lower MI. Despite a cutoff upper level low stalled out across the region over the last couple of days, minimal amounts of rainfall have fallen across the area. This scenario looks like it will remain the case through the short term forecast with the upper level low only slowly edging off to our east.
Our sounding tonight shows brisk midlevel westerly flow at the freezing level and slight more WNW flow above 500mb.
502 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Blocked pattern will transition to semi-progressive flow as the Great Lakes upper low moves east. This will allow the weak upper ridge over the northern Rockies to shift east the next 2 days. Dry conds expected most places Tues as the ridge's effects dominate. Pac NW upper trough will move east, forcing a lee-side trough east Wed. Cooler conds expected Thur as the upper trough traverses the region.
353 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half of the week as our air will be moving in from the northwest. Showers will linger over the area through Wednesday morning until the upper low finally shifts east into southern Quebec/New York.
1041 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023 19Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated large upper level low near the UT/NV border with apparent short wave trough lifting out of southern Colorado. With short wave trough providing forcing for large scale ascent and an airmass that will be relatively unstable with minimal heating, expect to see an increase in thunderstorms through the next few hours along western and southern borders which will gradually fill in overnight as trough lifts to the north. Trough will advance north overnight, but may actually get blocked by ridge axis to the north of the area.
1045 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Blocked pattern will transition to semi-progressive flow as the Great Lakes upper low moves east. This will allow the weak upper ridge over the northern Rockies to shift east the next 2 days. Dry conds expected most places Tues as the ridge's effects dominate. Pac NW upper trough will move east, forcing a lee-side trough east Wed. Cooler conds expected Thur as the upper trough traverses the region.
In the upper levels, a closed low remains over the Great Lakes through the Upper Mississippi, while messy ridging within a split flow pattern persists from the Great Basin through the Northern Rockies. This wave will work to amplify the upstream ridge and place the ridge axis over the Dakotas today and Wednesday, bringing warmer low level temperatures with it. Dry air associated with the ridging aloft will keep the forecast mostly dry for most of the state, but some mid-level moisture may sneak into the central and produce some isolated diurnal convection this afternoon. Lows are forecast to remain in the 50s with the warmer air mass, though a few observations recording 40s in the southwest can't be ruled out.
The closed low near the UT-AZ-NV border will continue to fill and move to the east over the next 24 hours. An extension of the legacy trough will persist across southern California through mid-week, keeping our pressure gradients low (lighter winds), heights suppressed (below normal temps), and generally featureless flow (little synoptic lift for precipitation creation). we're expecting fair weather through the week (and beyond), with winds picking up toward the end of the week as the gradient aloft increases with building heights (ridging) to our southeast.
Aloft water vapor shows the upper level low is still spinning over MI and the Great Lakes with weak ridging building to the west over the Southern Plains. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer as well, in the 50s with a few 60s in there. Tomorrow will be even warmer with highs in the mid to upper 80s, pushing 90 in a few spots.