Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
559 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front has moved through much of the area, much drier air is filtering into northwest Oklahoma, and the overnight convection has generally shifted east of the forecast area this morning. This low will translate slowly east today allowing the front to shift south across western north Texas today to the west of the low, but likely keep the front stalled near the Red River of south central and southeastern Oklahoma.
A return to cooler conditions will occur by mid- week as high pressure builds southward east of the Appalachians. Upper level troughing remains over the area in the near term. 850mb temperatures are around 3 degrees warmer than yesterday, meaning temps should be significantly warmer with highs in the mid 80s.
With high pressure in control, skies will remain mostly free of clouds through late morning. The ridge overhead will amplify further on Monday as a deep upper low approaches the Pacific Northwest bringing increased southerly winds 20 to 30 mph, especially north and south of the Snake Plain. Daytime highs will reach into upper 70s across the lower elevations and generally 50s in the mountains under southerly flow.
Moisture feed is cutoff from the upper low with main moisture and t-storms seen on radar over western Wisconsin into NE Minnesota, while lighter showers rotating around the system over E ND and NW/WC MN. This morning will see it most northern reach with showers into far southern Manitoba and then as the low sinks south a bit this afternoon and tonight the chances for showers will focus more in WC MN. Sometimes with upper lows have to always have in your mind potential for funnels and that chance is there, but it appears less than 20 percent this time and will not message attm.
As for temperatures, the weak front is not boasting much of a thermal gradient, with high temperatures today for those behind the front only 2-5 degrees cooler than yesterday.
The scattered rain shower chances are expected to gradually shift eastward across the state as the low pressure system in the Dakotas slowly creeps northeast into Minnesota. The pressure gradient between it and high pressure over the Hudson Bay will drive persistent southeasterly winds in our region, with gusts up to 20 mph. The slow-moving nature of the low has allowed it to pull up a plume of gulf moisture over the past few days, which currently spans from eastern MN to eastern OK.
An upper low slowly moves southeast from Minnesota to Lower Michigan bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms during the middle of the week.
309 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2023 This morning, there will be patchy fog in northern Rosebud, Custer, Fallon, and northern Carter Counties as the lower levels of the atmosphere reach saturation from recent rainfall, light winds, and clearing skies overhead. Otherwise, upper ridging will move eastward into the Northern Rockies through Monday night. This ridge will bring dry conditions under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies much of the time, and a warming trend. RMS The extended will start warm and dry, then become cooler with an increasing chance of showers through end of the week. A broad upper trough will set up over the Pacific Northwest.
A pinched long wave trough axis extends south down the Appalachians into the southern Gulf of Mexico. CIMMS low-level vorticity analyses place a maximum in cyclonic curvature northeast of the Yucatan, nestled beneath the southern extent of the upper level trough. The KBYX radar is much quieter than this morning, when thundery squalls spread north through the island chain, plowing through the Lower Keys around sunrise. A disorganized trough aligned near the Yucatan Channel will migrate westward over the next few days as Atlantic ridging builds westward into Florida.
637 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 (Today through Monday) With a post tropical cyclone to our east and a developing low pressure in Oklahoma, high pressure will remain in control through the day along with dry conditions. As the system in the east moves north and the low pressure system in the west moves east, we will see a southerly flow develop and lift a warm front northward tonight and into Monday.
Dry conditions expected to continue today as a high pressure system near Hudson Bay advects low-level dry air in in easterly flow. An upper low slowly moves southeast from Minnesota to Lower Michigan bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms during the middle of the week.
There is another weak trough aloft which will head into our area from the west on Monday. The approach of the mid/upper level trough will bring in higher clouds from the west Sunday night and Monday.
The pressure gradient between it and high pressure over the Hudson Bay will drive persistent southeasterly winds in our region, with gusts up to 20 mph. The slow-moving nature of the low has allowed it to pull up a plume of gulf moisture over the past few days, which currently spans from eastern MN to eastern OK.
High pressure over Quebec will then support mainly fair dry weather through the upcoming week. the ever weakening tropical remnants still centered near the Delmarva Peninsula will start to lose its battle with high pressure over Quebec. High pressure over Quebec on Monday is forecast to lose any further southward push into our region.
530 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Aviation Section Updated Drier, along with warmer afternoon temperatures are expected for the next few days.
801 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Drier, along with warmer afternoon temperatures are expected for the next few days.
621 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 (Today through Monday night) Latest 07Z observations on satellite shows a mid level low amplitude trough moving east across north central New Mexico. Out ahead of the main trough axis, enough localized lift along with some low level moisture is producing some sprinkles or very light rain showers for portions of the northern Panhandles through the mid morning hours. In the wake of the cold front from yesterday, in- conjunction with light north and northeast sfc winds, pleasant high temperatures for late September are in store for all of the Panhandles with highs ranging from the upper 70s to upper 80s.
and Monday Forecast focus on precipitation chances through Monday as a low pressure system tracks through the region. 07Z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of low pressure across the eastern Dakotas with an occluded front extending southeast towards northern Iowa. Although the upper level trough and isentropic lift will continue across western Wisconsin tonight, the forcing will become a bit less organized and weaker tonight.
Temperatures will be a little cooler across areas with the greater rain chances out west, with highs in the upper 80s. The rest of the region will see high temps peaking in the low to mid 90s.
KBYX all-tilt data continues to sample weak mesocyclones in the 8-10 kft elevation data for the storms to the west of Key West. The deep cyclone near the Yucatan Channel will lumber westward over the next few days as a mean-layer anticyclone develops over the southeastern Bahamas and Greater Antilles. With supergeostrophic flow racing to the northeast around the apex of the ridge, the Keys will occasionally be within the favorable right-entrance-region of the subtropical jet.
(Tonight) High pressure will continue to hold on over the area tonight. However, a thicker area of mid to high clouds will move from western Mississippi into northwestern Alabama along a pre-frontal trough axis around or after midnight. With some moisture advection expected ahead of this pre-frontal trough axis and the expected cloud cover overnight, lows should be a bit warmer west of the I-65 corridor.
234 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2023 20Z upper level analysis has deep closed low across western Minnesota, large trof off the West Coast, with ridging in between across the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure resides across the northern Rockies. Closed upper low over western Minnesota will continue to slowly shift east, as the ridge over the Rockies builds into the forecast area. Persistent ridge builds across the central CONUS for Monday through late in the week, with dry and warm conditions expected. As upper ridge shifts a little further east late in the week, and the Northern Plains falls under southwest upper flow, chances for precipitation will increase as weak disturbances eject out of the developing western trof into the Northern Plains.
1002 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Upper low slowly moving across the area still looks to provide rain showers and a few thunderstorms today, mainly in central and eastern portions. Upper level analysis places low over northeast South Dakota, with ridge building into central Montana. Rain showers continue to wrap around the upper low, passing through eastern and central North Dakota. For today, upper low meanders to the northeast into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. In the meantime, aforementioned central Montana ridge builds easterly into eastern Montana, which will end up gradually shutting down any rain showers over much of western North Dakota, especially towards the border. For tonight, low meanders slightly east, but ridging will continue to build to our west. Upper ridge will keep dry conditions over our area into mid-week along with a modest warming trend.
137 PM MST Sun Sep 24 2023 Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will persist for most of the week. A strong upper ridge remains in control over Mexico, with ridge axis extended northward across much of the Western US. Temperatures as of this writing are in the 80s to lower 90s across the forecast area, generally a few degrees cooler than yesterday but on track to be above normal for the day. A modest warming trend is in store the next couple of days as the upper ridge builds northward.
453 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 A nearly stationary 500 mb closed low continues to spin to our west with an occluded front pivoting into Gogebic County. There will be little advancement in a mid-level closed low on Monday due to blocking from high pressure centered over Hudson Bay. So, the low will just slowly drop southward across Minnesota and into Iowa.
Warmer today with the rain having moved out. Highs will be much warmer without the rain and NE flow. Monday is expected to be the warmest day of the week as high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard beyond Monday. The backdoor cold front will be crossing the region late Monday and Monday night. Expect partly sunny skies with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Lows Monday night are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s. At the surface, a backdoor cold front slides south Tue morning as a 1032 mb high settles down into SE Canada. Guidance diverges somewhat on Fri as the ECMWF/CMC bring the remnants of Ophelia southward and bring an inverted trough across eastern NC. Highs will slowly moderate but remain cool in the low to upper 70s Thu-Sat.
-Bernhart MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with Hot high pressure over the Four Corners and a ridge rising up through Wyoming, central Montana and southern Saskatchewan. To the west semi zonal to southwest flow resides over the Pacific Northwest with a ridge trough couplet developing right off the coastline.
219 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia will continue to weaken as it advances northeast and away from our area, allowing drier air to build across the lower Mid-Atlantic.
Otherwise, short-range guidance keeps the higher/better chances for widespread rains in the forecast for late tonight through early Mon morning with the passage of a weak surface boundary from the north. And with the increased POPs/clouds, highs tomorrow are going to be cooler.
320 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through tonight. Chances for rain will increase into this week as an upper level low slowly moves east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. High pressure was located over the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley early this afternoon, while the remnants of Ophelia were located over the Mid-Atlantic states.
This flow will allow for warmer air to move into the area, with temperatures peaking on Monday in the upper 70s for western Montana valleys and low 80s for lower valleys of central Idaho. Breezy south winds will be evident by Monday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
Upper low slowly moving across the area still looks to provide rain showers and a few thunderstorms today, mainly in central and eastern portions. Upper level analysis places low over northeast South Dakota, with ridge building into central Montana. Rain showers continue to wrap around the upper low, passing through eastern and central North Dakota. For today, upper low meanders to the northeast into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. In the meantime, aforementioned central Montana ridge builds easterly into eastern Montana, which will end up gradually shutting down any rain showers over much of western North Dakota, especially towards the border. For tonight, low meanders slightly east, but ridging will continue to build to our west. Upper ridge will keep dry conditions over our area into mid-week along with a modest warming trend.
A large area of low pressure will drop from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin toward the end of the week, leading to increasing winds and significant cooling trend.
High pressure is over South Texas with little in the way of cloud cover at the moment. This scenario will continue into the evening and probably overnight at the 500 mb ridge continues to be stubborn over northern Mexico and West Texas.
Southeast winds will persist across the state as the low pressure moves northeast and the high pressure system over the Hudson Bay area remains near stagnant.
Highs are forecast to rise into the low 90s Monday afternoon, with heat indices in the upper 80s to near 90 across Georgia and SE AL and the low to mid 90s across FL.
There's a ridge extending from northern Mexico to the Great Lakes and lows over the High Plains, southeastern Gulf of Mexico and New England. A wedge of dry air that was partially over the CWA has shifted southeastward as pool of moisture under the ridge spread southeast. The base of the upper level trough northwest of the region will nudge south and eastward tonight into Monday.
A ridge of high pressure over UT/CO will provide plenty of sunshine with a dry northwesterly flow aloft. There's better model agreement on the larger scale pattern for later in the week into the weekend as a western trough sags towards us with dry southwest flow aloft over Colorado.
240 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 A cold front will approach from the north this evening and cross the region tonight.
300 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Stacked low pressure over Minnesota will slowly migrate southeast through the upper midwest region and eventually into the northern Ohio Valley and far southern lower MI by midweek as it is steered around blocking high pressure centered over Quebec.
Current 500mb analysis shows an upper low related to the remnants of Ophelia situated across the NCR with a trough extending down the east coast. The trough and low will slowly push off to the north and east overnight and early tomorrow. The trough will continue across the CWA through tomorrow, but should become diffuse later in the day.
The prime location for severe storm development this afternoon and evening is far southern Oklahoma - namely Love, Marshall, and Bryan Counties - where strong instability and steep lapses rates are expected near the warm front.
Remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia will exit tonight but flow will transition towards the next upper level trough through the end of the week. Monday will see the region nestled between an upper Mississippi River Valley trough and the Ophelia remnants under weak flow.
A weakened frontal boundary is expected to stall out west of the forecast area as the southern system centered in Arkansas becomes disconnected from the low in the Upper Plains. Highs this afternoon are in the near 80 to lower 80s range with a few isolated warmer sites. Highs inch a little higher due to reduced cloud cover, since the collapsed front won't provide any meaningful cold air advection, reaching the low to mid 80s. Lows remain in the lower 60s.
There may be a few breaks of sunshine across the lowlands Monday afternoon, which may help temperatures rise into the lower 70s for daytime highs. Weak transient ridging breaks down during the day Monday allowing weak mid-level disturbances to interact with remnant tropical moisture from the remnants of Ophelia.
A large area of low pressure will drop from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin toward the end of the week, leading to increasing winds and a significant cooling trend.
A ridge builds over the region tonight and amplifies Monday as the overall pattern evolution slows due to the upper-level low trudging through the Northern Plains. Warmer temperatures Sunday afternoon coupled with warm air advection from the southwest keeps temperatures tonight a few degrees warmer from those of Sunday morning. The ridge keeps conditions dry with a warming trend Monday and Monday night.
1130 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Updated Aviation Discussion Drier, along with warmer afternoon temperatures are expected for the next few days.
300 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 A slow moving upper level low will continue to meander around the ND/SD/MN border.
Afternoon temperatures should be slightly cooler than yesterday due to precipitation and cloud cover. Expect highs in the low to middle 80s, coolest west of the Mississippi River. More widespread activity will occur late tonight as a cold front pushes south.
Travel over the fog-shrouded ridges will be slowed from vsbys dipping below 1/SM in spots, while the valley see vsbys in the 1-2SM range at worst during periods of rain where rates exceed 0. No flooding concerns with this highly beneficial rainfall, focused over our SE zones where rainfall departures and FFG values are the greatest.
Monday will be the warmest day of the week as high pressure builds begins to build in from the NW. As high pressure builds in, a dry frontal passage will shift east over the area.
Monday will see deep-layer southeasterly flow become more established as SFL becomes positioned between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a weak low over the Southern GOM. Although synoptic forcing will be neutral to slightly negative (mid-lvl heights will be rising as the western Atlantic ridge noses westward) there should be enough moisture/instability to support another day of scattered to numerous convection with the storm focus likely shifting north and west with time. The airmass will warm a degree or two as the ridge builds in, so highs will likely return to the 90s areawide on Monday, with heat indices likely maxing out around 105 degrees.
The true cold front with associated drier air is into far NW Osage county, while a prefrontal trough is aligned generally along and just south of Interstate 44 from NE OK into far NW AR.
High pressure will prevail across the greater region tonight. These conditions should lead to the overall cooler lows. For Monday, high pressure will continue to prevail across the FA. For Monday night, weak lee troughing will eventually resume.
The low to our north will continue to bring cloud cover and a stray shower over Baker County and Harney County, OR today.
1234 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 (Today through Monday night) Latest 07Z observations on satellite shows a mid level low amplitude trough moving east across north central New Mexico. Out ahead of the main trough axis, enough localized lift along with some low level moisture is producing some sprinkles or very light rain showers for portions of the northern Panhandles through the mid morning hours. In the wake of the cold front from yesterday, in- conjunction with light north and northeast sfc winds, pleasant high temperatures for late September are in store for all of the Panhandles with highs ranging from the upper 70s to upper 80s.
(Through Tonight) Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to suppress chances for precipitation Tonight.
In the wake of the front passage, highs will be quite comfortable with temperatures in the low to mid 80s areawide.
Travel over the fog-shrouded east/SE facing slopes near the ridge tops will be slowed and challenging at times from vsbys dipping below 1/SM in spots, while the valleys see vsbys in the 1-2SM range at worst during periods of rain where rates exceed 0. No flooding concerns with this highly beneficial rainfall, focused over our SE zones where rainfall departures and FFG values are the greatest. Temps for the rest of the day will vary from the mid to upper 50s across the Northern and Western Mtns to the mid 60s in the Lower Susq Valley.
A weak cold front has moved south of the forecast area with convective initiation along it later today expected to remain south and east of the forecast area. Add in some subsidence behind an upper level short wave trough exiting the Texas Panhandle this afternoon and this potential looks even more unlikely.
This cloud cover will be around due to troughs of low pressure moving by to our south, coming in from the west, and remaining in place to our east.
We should dry out by midweek but temperatures will turn warmer.
Further east, dry air advecting around post-tropical cyclone Ophelia will keep any rain at bay, though cloud cover will gradually increase. High temperatures will be quite warm, in the lower to middle 80s. Tonight's low temperatures will dip into the lower to middle 60s. Otherwise, it will be another warm early fall day with high temperatures reaching the lower to middle 80s. The entire area will be dry for Monday night with low temperatures again falling into the lower 60s.
High pressure will begin to rebuild tomorrow and that will bring warmer temperatures back to the area.
1206 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a warm and humid airmass was located across west central Texas, while a cold front was located just south of the Panhandle. A strong upper-level ridge was located over northern Mexico. By tonight, the ridge will start to become suppressed by increasing northwest flow aloft.
154 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over SD with another closed low over VA and a ridge across Hudson Bay and Ontario. The closed low over SD heads slowly northeast to near Fargo by 00z Mon. Another round of pops will move into the far west today as the low remains off to the west of the area with some moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence across the west which weakens by 00z Mon. Key Messages: -Weakening low pressure system provides slight chances for precip in the western U. Starting tonight, a mid-level closed low over the North Dakota and Minnesota state line slowly shifts east through Minnesota and then southeast on Monday. Meanwhile, ridging over Ontario and the Hudson Bay keeps this low from advancing further east.
300 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 A nearly stationary 500 mb closed low continues to spin to our west with an occluded front pivoting into Gogebic County. Key Messages: -Weakening low pressure system provides slight chances for precip in the western U. Starting tonight, a mid-level closed low over the North Dakota and Minnesota state line slowly shifts east through Minnesota and then southeast on Monday. Meanwhile, ridging over Ontario and the Hudson Bay keeps this low from advancing further east.
Discussion: The remnants of post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia has left some low clouds in its wake and were still persisting over the northeast Tennessee/southwest Virginia area at mid afternoon. Weak high pressure will continue over the forecast area tonight with weak ridging aloft.
Highs clouds are expected to increase as the system gets closer so will likely be partly to mostly cloudy overnight and lows a little warmer in the upper 50s/low 60s. We will be partly to mostly sunny and highs still above normal in the low to mid 80s.