Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A closed low was spinning across northern New Mexico and by 12Z is expected to be over the northwestern Texas Panhandle. The upper low will be pulling away from the area today but will leave a strong height gradient aloft. Having said that, we will not be mixing to a height much higher than 800-750mb with the passage of the pacific cold front this morning. The surface pressure gradient will begin to relax this afternoon as the surface cyclone quickly moves away from the region leading to light winds overnight.
That closed mid level low is expected to open up more into trof as it heads toward the upper Mississippi valley.
The records for Feb 14 are at the lower end of the range compared to other dates during this week so are a little easier to achieve. -- Rain and Wind Tonight and Wednesday -- The low pressure system tracking from Iowa to Upper Michigan tonight will have a robust 50 to 70 knot low-level jet core from Tennessee to Michigan. Lapse rates in the lower levels will be somewhat stable but not overwhelmingly so tonight.
(Today and tonight) Morning water vapor imagery shows the upper level low spinning over the northern Texas Panhandle.
(Today through Wednesday) A 500mb trough will move through the southern plains today, ejecting a Pacific front into South Texas as it continues east this afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will be warmer with some areas in the Rio Grande Plains touching 90 degrees.
620 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2023 (Today through Wednesday) The body of high pressure moves further into the western Atlantic & over Florida Peninsula, which will dictate the upcoming weather pattern. High pressure ridging will keep the dry, stable, and mostly clear conditions across the region further into the week. Winds will become east-southeasterly, which will help keep the dry and warmer conditions across our region. Today will be a few days warmer with southwestern FL in the high 70s & low 80s and southeastern FL in the mid-to-high 70s. Add a few more again tomorrow, further above seasonal, into the low to mid 80s across the region.
The parent trough is still well to our north over northern Nevada, but it will quickly deepen while moving south through Nevada and Utah today. What may seem like minimal shower activity this morning will increase dramatically this afternoon and tonight as the trough moves into northern Arizona and pushes a strong arctic cold front through the state. Strengthening southwest winds are expected through the day in response to the approaching trough. These winds will cause areas of blowing snow in the high country today that will extend into the lower elevations by this evening. We also added the lower elevations of Yavapai county to an Advisory to account for dangerous conditions in snow and blowing snow (despite low snow amounts of about 1").
211 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2023 Upper air models currently show a closed low over the CO/KS border, with a 2nd wave digging behind it over OR this morning. At the surface, low pressure sits over central MT, with a frontal boundary oriented west/east through central MT and ND. 500mb cluster ensembles agree on ridging building over the western CONUS towards the end of the week.
nearly vertically stacked low pressure will race from the Plains this morning to northwest IA this afternoon. low pressure will continue to race northeast reaching Lake Superior by around 12z Wednesday, with most of the rain tapering off through the night as a pseudo dry slot pushing into the area. low pressure will exit into Canada, with a cold front sweeping across the area.
218 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2023 A cold front moved through the forecast area last evening. A secondary cold front will move southeast across the area this morning which will bring slowly falling temperatures today. Areas along and south of the Big Sheep Mountains will receive 1 to 3 inches of snow today and with rain early this morning that could flash freeze as temperatures fall below freezing this morning, will maintain Winter Weather Advisory today for McCone, Dawson, Prairie, and Wibaux Counties. North winds will increase this morning with tight surface gradient behind the cold front which will lead to some blowing and drifting snow. High pressure moves in tonight with diminishing winds and much colder temperatures with lows ranging from near zero north to the lower teens SW.
415 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2023 Upper air models currently show a closed low over the CO/KS border, with a 2nd wave digging behind it over OR this morning. At the surface, low pressure sits over central MT, with a frontal boundary oriented west/east through central MT and ND. 500mb cluster ensembles agree on ridging building over the western CONUS towards the end of the week.
538 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 (Today through Wednesday) A 500mb trough will move through the southern plains today, ejecting a Pacific front into South Texas as it continues east this afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will be warmer with some areas in the Rio Grande Plains touching 90 degrees.
432 AM PST Tue Feb 14 2023 Light snow accumulations will persist over the high terrain of north Idaho mountains of north Idaho oday.
Dry and cooler weather is expected behind the system mid to late week with a slow warming trend during the weekend. Short range ensembles are in good agreement with trough dropping south into the Great Basin Region today. This will bring cooler conditions and the chance for some very light precipitation over the high Sierra and southern Cascades.
Meanwhile, a cold front will approach the Mississippi River early tonight and then continue eastward. Hi-res models have precip associated with the cold front beginning to make it's way into far NW GA overnight.
241 AM PST Tue Feb 14 2023 Light snow accumulations will persist over the high terrain of north Idaho mountains of north Idaho today.
A 500mb ridge will build overhead through the day. A band of high clouds on the nose of the upper ridge will pass through Today, but will be fairly thin. Due to the onshore flow, the readings will be coolest near the coast, since Atlantic sea surface temperatures are relatively cooler.
The region is under a broad trough this morning behind yesterday's cold front. A secondary cold front is expected to move across the region today as a back-door cold front moving east to west. Also today, a small ridge builds in from the west causing anticyclonic flow over the region this afternoon. The high pressure remains in place until this weekend.
A dry slot is progressing across southwest Kansas this morning as the warm conveyor belt ahead of an upper low shifts eastward. A slightly cooler air mass will arrive behind this upper level trough tonight, with lows from the mid 20s to near 30 by Wednesday morning. The next upper level trough will be close on the heels of the present system, with snow developing across far western Kansas Wednesday morning and overspreading the remainder of central and southwestern Kansas during the day.
405 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 A dry slot is progressing across southwest Kansas this morning as the warm conveyor belt ahead of an upper low shifts eastward. A slightly cooler air mass will arrive behind this upper level trough tonight, with lows from the mid 20s to near 30 by Wednesday morning. The next upper level trough will be close on the heels of the present system, with snow developing across far western Kansas Wednesday morning and overspreading the remainder of central and southwestern Kansas during the day.
641 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2023 High pressure will remain in control of the region through the middle of the week keeping mostly clear skies in place.
544 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night) Mid and high level moisture contd to incrs acrs the Mid-South overnight, well in advance of closed upper low situated ovr NM early this mrng. The incrsg pressure gradient between this feature, and a ridge of high pressure over the SErn U. The assocd upper low is fcst to follow a similar track to todays sys, working fm the 4-Corners Region into the Plains States Wed aftn/night.
Upper trough and cold air are now upon us, but coldest temps are not expected until tonight through Wednesday night when winds will be lighter.
1023 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2023 Upper air models currently show a closed low over the CO/KS border, with a 2nd wave digging behind it over OR this morning. At the surface, low pressure sits over central MT, with a frontal boundary oriented west/east through central MT and ND. 500mb cluster ensembles agree on ridging building over the western CONUS towards the end of the week.
1003 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2023 High pressure will remain in control of the region through the middle of the week keeping mostly clear skies in place.
(The rest of today) A strong upper level low pressure system is lifting northeast over western KS this morning. Some wrap-around cloud and possibly a shower or two will graze NE OK this afternoon as the upper low moves on by.
952 AM PST Tue Feb 14 2023 Light snow accumulations will persist over the high terrain of north Idaho mountains of north Idaho today.
1116 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 (The rest of today) A strong upper level low pressure system is lifting northeast over western KS this morning. Some wrap-around cloud and possibly a shower or two will graze NE OK this afternoon as the upper low moves on by.
Flow aloft turns southwesterly by this afternoon on the western side of the ridge. Areas east of I-65 will be close enough to the ridge to suppress any rain, so those locations remain dry through mid-week. The trend of increasing moisture over the cooler waters along the Mississippi Sound and Mobile Bay may lead to sea fog late tonight through Wednesday morning.
Strong gusty winds can be expected in the higher elevations and foothills of the E TN mountains starting late this afternoon and most of tonight. The upper ridge has shifted east today and a closed upper low over the Plains will now move northeast into the Great Lakes Region as a surface cold front pushes into the Lower Ohio River Valley/Mid Mississippi River Valley late tonight. With the low level jet increasing late today into tonight.
1138 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 (Today and tonight) Morning water vapor imagery shows the upper level low spinning over the northern Texas Panhandle.
(This evening through Wednesday) As the low pressure system to our north moves off to the northeast, the pressure gradient will weaken slightly allowing winds to calm down late this afternoon and tonight. This low along with strong 850mb winds, which could mix down, will allow wind speeds to pick back up Wednesday morning and afternoon. Wind direction will shift to more of a southerly wind overnight ahead of the next trough, bringing warm dry air from the south and raising highs tomorrow. As the low over the panhandle begins to develop and move east, a cold front will approach our area, reaching our western border Wednesday afternoon.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) High pressure over the western Atlantic will dominate the weather pattern in the short term.
The low will track to western Lake Superior by 12z Wednesday which means the cwa will remain in the warm sector through the next 36 hrs.
With the center of the high moving off to the east, surface winds are expected to stir through night though, which will limit fog potential. Lows will range from the mid to upper 40s inland, to the lower to mid 50s closer to the coast.
1042 AM PST Tue Feb 14 2023 Light snow accumulations will persist over the high terrain of north Idaho mountains of north Idaho today.
A warm but comfortable afternoon for the Florida Keys, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, coupled with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Surface observational trends indicating high pressure just east of the Florida First Coast slowly sliding offshore. A stagnant pattern will continue in the Florida Keys for the foreseeable future as a dominant, late spring-like ridge continues to largely dictate the sensible weather.
(Tonight) Mid level center of intense cyclone currently over south central KS will lift through the Great Lakes by sunrise Wednesday. (Wednesday through Tuesday) The cold front associated with the aforementioned wave will push southward into the area overnight before stalling and gradually lifting northward tomorrow. Guidance has trended slightly more suppressed with sfc based instability across SE OK, however a broad fetch of elevated instability will reside north of the moisture defined sfc warm front and convection is expected to develop and expand southeast of Interstate 44 tomorrow evening.
107 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023 High pressure will remain in control of the region through the middle of the week keeping mostly clear skies in place.
1123 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night) Mid and high level moisture contd to incrs acrs the Mid-South overnight, well in advance of closed upper low situated ovr NM early this mrng. The incrsg pressure gradient between this feature, and a ridge of high pressure over the SErn U. The assocd upper low is fcst to follow a similar track to todays sys, working fm the 4-Corners Region into the Plains States Wed aftn/night.
After a decent radiational cooling event taking many locations into the upper 50s or lower 60s before sunrise, temperatures have rebounded quickly into the lower 70s. From synopsis, expansive high pressure across the Southeast will continue to slide eastward this afternoon and tonight, before settling in the Western Atlantic.
231 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 Dry weather expected for tonight as current upper level low pressure system races northeast away from Kansas. Meanwhile the next upper level low pressure system currently over Nevada will move east across the Rockies tonight and eject out into western Kansas by Wednesday night.
High pressure has migrated to the east of the area over the Atlc waters, and onshore return flow enhanced by an afternoon seabreeze wl keep breezy conditions at the coast through dusk.
This low will continue to deepen and lift northeast through the night. With the low expected to track through the western UP, modest isentropic forcing and q- vector mid-level convergence look to support 0. As the low pulls away Wednesday, a cold front will support a colder airmass building across the region from west to east. By 18z much of the west may be in the low-mid 20s.
1224 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023 High pressure will prevail through the middle of the week.
The forecast remains on track with the cold front moving out of the area and wrapping up the precipitation through the early afternoon. These showers will continue through the day as the low pressure system moves through the region. Freezing fog remains likely tonight as skies clear and moisture near the boundary layer favors fog development.
1056 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 (Today through Wednesday) A 500mb trough will move through the southern plains today, ejecting a Pacific front into South Texas as it continues east this afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will be warmer with some areas in the Rio Grande Plains touching 90 degrees.
Previous Discussion: A cold front moved through the forecast area last evening. A secondary cold front will move southeast across the area this morning which will bring slowly falling temperatures today. Areas along and south of the Big Sheep Mountains will receive 1 to 3 inches of snow today and with rain early this morning that could flash freeze as temperatures fall below freezing this morning, will maintain Winter Weather Advisory today for McCone, Dawson, Prairie, and Wibaux Counties. North winds will increase this morning with tight surface gradient behind the cold front which will lead to some blowing and drifting snow. High pressure moves in tonight with diminishing winds and much colder temperatures with lows ranging from near zero north to the lower teens SW.
Upper-level ridging will become the dominant feature through Wednesday night.
The main show arrives later this afternoon when a powerful cold front currently over Mohave County moves into the region. Travel this afternoon into early Wednesday across the High Country is STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
This will allow temperatures to drop below freezing across the area.
Much drier conditions are expected tonight behind today's cold front. Winds will increase once again on Wednesday as a 30-40 knot LLJ moves just across the northern portions of the area and another cold front approaches South Texas.
Additional snowfall will range from 1-3 inches at the lower elevations and 3-7 inches in the mountains in the Southern Hills and Eastern Highlands. The cold front passing through this evening will bring in the colder, drier air from up north to shut down the snow production early tonight, but it comes with some gusty winds again and will drop temperatures significantly. Winds will be breezy for the rest of Eastern Idaho behind the cold front this evening and tonight with gusts 25-40 mph, which will still cause some patchy blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures warm into the 20s for most on Wednesday afternoon as high pressure builds in over the area.
A series of low pressure systems will move through the region bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-South over the next seven days.
An upper level ridge over the southeast CONUS will shift east out of the southeast region, and this will allow a strong trough to approach by late Wednesday. Showers and perhaps a few storms will likely increase in coverage in the warm advection ahead of the trough.
Winds will also subside this evening as temperatures fall dramatically overnight with high pressure settling into the region. Upper ridging will provide dry weather and rebounding temperatures later this week. The next cold front will approach over the weekend, with some ensemble members hinting at a chance for light snow at that time.
Frost and freezing temperatures are likely for many areas both tonight and Wednesday night.
* Warmer weather returns this weekend to the region. Upper level ridging builds across the western CONUS late this week and then flattens to more zonal flow during the weekend.
Low pressure centered over KS this afternoon continues to lift northeastward toward the upper Midwest, and has spread shower activity, albeit light, into central IL this afternoon. More significant will be the winds, with south- southeast winds continuing to strengthen with the approach of the low and stronger pressure gradients, as well as somewhat better mixing potential with an inversion dissipating with cooler temperatures aloft. Although winds may trend down for a few hours late in the evening, the passage of a cold front should bring cold advection in the early morning hours that could extend windy conditions, or potentially bring some of the strongest winds of this storm from around 3 to 6 am for areas east of I-55 & north of I-70.
The polar cold front has pushed through the majority of the Northern Rockies today, causing widespread 2 to 8 inches of snowfall. As a ridge of high pressure builds over the region, the upper level flow will become northwesterly on Wednesday, allowing for a few showers to linger across northwest Montana. These showers will mainly be confined to the higher terrain.
Dry and cooler weather is expected behind the system through late week with a slow warming trend during the weekend. A cold inside slider trough is dropping into the Great Basin bringing periodic snow showers to the mountains. Valley temperatures have been cooler, currently 10 to 15 degrees lower than yesterday. Valley highs will only reach the low and upper 50's.
A fairly apparent region of blowing dust can be observed in western and southern Oklahoma, and GOES-16 Dust RGB satellite displays indicate the dust has begun wrapping around the base of the surface pressure cyclone and pressure trough. As the cyclone exits the region, winds will quickly decrease. Another upper level trough begins moving into the southern Plains throughout the day on Wednesday, with a tightening surface pressure gradient and windy conditions expected again through Oklahoma and western north Texas. Precipitation chances will begin to increase late Wednesday afternoon as the upper level trough and associated surface cyclone/cold front begin to move into the region.
406 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 (Issued 406 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023) Tonight through Wednesday night: Rain is spreading into WI this afternoon as a closed upper low takes on a negative tilt over the Midwest and a tongue of moisture streams in ahead of it. Dry air will move into southern WI overnight/early Wed morning as the low moves over Lake Superior. This and the vorticity advection and the relatively warm air in the low levels will help to steepen our mid level lapse rates this evening.
Dry weather expected for tonight as current upper level low pressure system races northeast away from Kansas. Meanwhile the next upper level low pressure system currently over Nevada will move east across the Rockies tonight and eject out into western Kansas by Wednesday night.
541 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 (Tonight) Mid level center of intense cyclone currently over south central KS will lift through the Great Lakes by sunrise Wednesday. (Wednesday through Tuesday) The cold front associated with the aforementioned wave will push southward into the area overnight before stalling and gradually lifting northward tomorrow. Guidance has trended slightly more suppressed with sfc based instability across SE OK, however a broad fetch of elevated instability will reside north of the moisture defined sfc warm front and convection is expected to develop and expand southeast of Interstate 44 tomorrow evening.
Current upper air analysis depicts closed upper low centered over KS with a fairly well defined comma-head structure on visual imagery. Forecast remains fairly complex with the upper low over KS interacting with the wave in ID/WY. Winds will remain gusty through Wednesday as the upper wave digs to the south and develops into a closed low.
504 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) As the low pressure system to our north moves off to the northeast, the pressure gradient will weaken slightly allowing winds to calm down late this afternoon and tonight. This low along with strong 850mb winds, which could mix down, will allow wind speeds to pick back up Wednesday morning and afternoon. Wind direction will shift to more of a southerly wind overnight ahead of the next trough, bringing warm dry air from the south and raising highs tomorrow. As the low over the panhandle begins to develop and move east, a cold front will approach our area, reaching our western border Wednesday afternoon.
652 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023 Not much in terms of weather across the area with robust high pressure remaining in control of the region and persisting benign weather conditions. (Rest of today through Wednesday) High pressure over the western Atlantic will dominate the weather pattern in the short term.
The rest of NV will still see winds gusting mainly in the 20s to 30s mph range with occasional stronger gusts in the low 40s. Highs will be in the 20s to 30s while the lows will fall into teens to negative single digits to low tens.
Wednesday will be a quiet day with temperatures rebounding to around freezing as heights build in behind the low from today.
322 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 Snow and breezy winds will continue through the evening and overnight from a low pressure system impacting the Central Plains. A strong pressure gradient has set up with cold air advection (CAA) moving in behind a cold front this afternoon.
That area will lift back northwest during the day in anticipation of the next low pressure system to make a run through the area after this period. Highs Wednesday were bumped up a degree or two as the NBM was cooler than Met/Mav guidance and wrapped in a sliver of NBM90 guidance to raise the highs into the mid to upper 70s.
549 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 A series of low pressure systems will move through the region bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-South over the next seven days.