Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Surface obs showed temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday and a substantial drop in humidity over most of the region. Dry and seasonably hot weather will continue through Sunday, with temperatures expected to be just a degree or two warmer than today, ahead of the hottest period expected early in the coming week.
1027 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the lower 80s to lower 90s. A cold front currently extends from northwest Indiana through central Missouri and into southwest Oklahoma. The large upper level ridge that brought record heat will retreat to the western U. through Sunday morning, which will allow a cold front to move through the Midsouth tonight.
H5 analysis this morning had an elongated area of high pressure centered over eastern New Mexico. Ridging extended north of the high's center into southern Montana. West of the high, closed low pressure was located approximately 500 miles off the southern coast of Oregon. Across southern Canada, a trough extended from Quebec south into New England. At the surface, a cold front extended from southwestern Oklahoma, northeast into central Illinois and northern Indiana. North of this cold front, high pressure was anchored over south central Canada and the Dakotas. With this in mind, decided to trend my lows tonight toward the warmer NBM guidance. This resulted in lows in the lower 50s across the area. Wouldn't be surprised to see some readings around 90 over far northern areas in closest proximity to the approaching cold front.
Steady northeasterly flow will continue to bring drier and cooler air into the region through the remainder of the day today. This should scour out the remaining moisture in the lower levels, bringing sunshine to most of the area before sunset. High pressure and large scale subsidence will keep the area dry and sunny. Sunday Night Through Saturday High pressure will drift off to the southeast for the first part of the week, which will allow temperatures to moderate back to around normal.
3) Warmer late week with slightly better, although still low, precipitation chances. Will shoot for lows in the low to mid 50s although should a more expansive stratus evolve, these will also be impacted. Increased cloud cover through this same area will keep lows warmer, into the 60s with mid to upper 50s elsewhere.
Trailing this MCV is a sagging frontal boundary, which should ultimately usher in some cooler and drier air into the area. Robust, deep convection is not anticipated with this activity as available CAPE is pretty marginal, mainly due to shallow lapse rates in the mid levels and relatvely cool temperatures in the lower levels. Once the low level boundary sags all the way through the area expect a drop off in rain chances.
Clear skies tomorrow night and light winds will facilitate efficient radiational cooling with overnight lows dropping to the lower 50s.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Ridging centered across the central Plains and Desert Southwest this afternoon with troughing draped down the Eastern Seaboard. Northern Michigan lies on the western periphery of troughing with rather fast upper-level northwest flow continuing. At the surface, expansive high pressure centered just north of Lake Superior will continue to sag into the northern Great Lakes tonight. Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated through tonight as aforementioned high pressure gradually sags closer to home. Of course it is still August, and this'll be the exception rather than the rule with the vast majority of the forecast area bottoming out in the lower 40s to lower 50s (warmest near the immediate lakeshores).
Monsoon moisture will dwindle over the coming days as high pressure moves over Arizona.
Northeast winds around the high will filter in much drier and cooler air. The low stratus has finally eroded, but convection has developed in advance of an eastern Missouri and west central Illinois MCS. BUFKIT soundings and northeast winds around the high will result in a drying column and cold advection.
1232 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level high will continue to weaken and drift west into New Mexico through the day today. Temperatures today will remain on the hot side with temperatures in the low to mid 100s. A weak cold front will begin to approach our northern counties overnight and may provide a slight chance for showers up there.
340 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Dry weather has generally held across SE MI with the exception being a few brief spotty showers south of I-696 tied to the passage of a weak cold front. This high brings with it a significantly drier airmass with surface dewpoints falling into the 50s to perhaps 40s in the north.
354 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 A trough is situated over Quebec to the East Coast with a ridge back to the west. The low can be seen spinning on visible satellite over Missouri and northeast Kansas. After the cold front passed through last evening/night, this brought a much needed cool down for the Sunflower State.
1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance Key Messages: -Cooler air to return this weekend, no hazardous weather expected at this time.
After a cold front passes tonight, much cooler and less humid weather will be on tap for Sunday with high temperatures only reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s. 18z/1pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from northern Indiana to northern Missouri. Widely scattered showers/storms will linger along/south of the cold front for the next several hours. After some lingering morning cloud cover, skies will become mostly sunny by Sunday afternoon as northeasterly winds bring cooler/drier air into the region. High temperatures will be considerably cooler than they have recently been.
(This evening through Sunday) The upper level low that sits off the coast continues to slowly move northward, allowing the transition to a ridging pattern influenced weather. Therefore, expect tomorrow's max temperatures to see warmer temperatures by 2-6 degrees higher compared to today. As the high pressure continues to slowly move over our region tomorrow, expect the marine layer to continue to compress bringing a higher chance for low clouds as well as lower visibilities from fog late tonight into tomorrow morning, especially for Monterey Bay and North Bay.
219 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures continue Sunday.
- Additional precip chances tomorrow as trough axis moves through, but chances for severe convection are low (less than 5 percent). By tomorrow into Sunday night, the trough axis will push into our western CWA.
1055 AM MDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Upper high continues to dominate over the central and southern plains for today, with northwest flow aloft our region. At the surface, high pressure sits over the Dakotas and will begin moving east of the forecast area this morning, bringing return flow into the region and slightly warmer temperatures.
But given clearing clouds and our area still ahead of the expected cold front, will wait it out and see what our temperatures can do before thunderstorms develop. Additional showers and some strong to potentially severe storms may develop this afternoon ahead of a cold front. This activity, along with cloud coverage may keep temperatures more subdued than what we've been forecasting, but no need to celebrate, because even if temperatures are a couple of degrees cooler, dewpoints will remain high. With a cold front having pushed through our area by early Sunday morning, temperatures are expected to be several degrees cooler. (Sunday Night through next Saturday) An upper trough positioned over the northeast U.
An upper level trough is currently located across northeastern Missouri this afternoon. Instability is increasing across south central Missouri this afternoon a head of the trough with the heating of the day. Behind the south central MO activity closer to the upper level trough there will be some weak uncapped elevated cap that moves south across the area mainly east of Highway 65 this afternoon into the overnight hours. A cooler air mass is starting to move into the area this afternoon and will likely be able to cancel the Excessive Heat Warning early from northwest to southeast today. Cooler conditions will occur on Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Pleasant weather (at least compared to last week's heat wave) is in store for this weekend with cool high pressure over the Great Lakes through Sunday. Developing southerly winds tomorrow will allow for slightly warmer temperatures than today, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. The flow aloft becomes stagnant through much of the coming week as amplified ridging over central North America pushes the main stream of the jet well into northern Canada.
318 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 A weak cold front will drift southeast and cross the region through tonight. High pressure will then slide from the Lower Great Lakes into New England in the wake of this front.
Farther north, in north central Kentucky and southern Indiana, high pressure crossing the Great Lakes will provide a northeast breeze with slowly decreasing cloudiness. Low temperatures tonight will range form the middle and upper 60s from southern Indiana to the Kentucky Blue Grass, to the lower 70s in southern Kentucky. Sunday will be warm but with afternoon temperatures a few degrees below normal in the lower and middle 80s.
The high pressure is expected to keep the area dry for the remainder of the day. Tomorrow the area will be under northwest flow aloft as the upper ridge amplifies over the Four Corners region.
Weak upper-level ridging remains in place with a mostly dry, continental airmass in place above 600mb. While a more typical summertime airmass has remained in the low-levels, daytime heating continues to favor modification. Remaining sandwiched between a strong ridge over the central CONUS and Hurricane Franklin to the east, most dry but warm conditions look to continue through the weekend.
349 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 High pressure will build into the area for the beginning of the week.
(This afternoon through Sunday Night) Observations early this afternoon show the cold front over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois with a few thunderstorms developing ahead of it. Across Middle TN, our temperatures have warmed into the low to mid-90's with mostly clear skies. As far as thunderstorms for the rest of today, hit-and-miss storms will continue to be possible ahead of the cold front through this evening. Otherwise, look for much cooler temperatures on Sunday behind the cold front.
223 PM MDT Sat Aug 26 2023 The Northern Rockies will be under the periphery of an upper ridge through most of Sunday. This wave will also bring a weak cold front southwestward over the area, with drier air moving in from the northeast and aloft. Showers and thunderstorms are likely in the mountains and foothills (50-70% chance) but have a lower though still appreciable chance of occurring in the lower elevations of south central MT, including Billings, at 20-40%.
350 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 A cold front continues to sag south across the area this evening.
We rapidly dry out tomorrow night as high pressure builds briefly over us.
(Tonight through Saturday) The upper level ridge will continue to shift westwards and weaken the next day or two, allowing the storm track to nudge closer to our area.
207 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 A weak cold front will drift southeast and cross the region late today and tonight with little more than some clouds and perhaps a few isolated showers across the northern mountains of Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna Valley. High pressure will slide from the Lower Great Lakes into New England in the wake of this front, bringing us dry conditions with much lower daytime humidity on Sunday.
A weak cold front will drop southeastwards across the area this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, quiet weather continues through Sunday as high pressure begins building across the Great Lakes.
Currently, high pressure is situated over eastern North Dakota with low pressure in the lee of the Canadian and Northern Rockies. For tonight and Sunday, developing low pressure and it's associated warm front will move into North Dakota. Clouds should increase with scattered showers possible this evening and overnight, mainly associated with the warm advection ahead/north of the warm front over central North Dakota and moving into eastern North Dakota towards morning. A cold front pushes through the forecast area Sunday night bringing cooler temperatures and dry conditions to begin the work week. An upper level low tracks across the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies by mid week.
Lows tonight, should fall to the mid to upper 50s northeast to the lower 60s south.
Fully entrenched in a moist, unstable air mass underneath a still present (but weakening!) upper level ridge, heat index values peak at 105-110 this afternoon. For the most part, these showers will be moreso the result of an approaching remnant outflow boundary than the weakening subsidence from the persistent ridging. While any storm development from this system should stay north of our area, steering flow around the receding ridge may cause it to take a more southerly track late tonight.
As the front makes passage and cooler air overtakes the column, the overturning will create high overnight-into tmrw morning pops, before nosediving the other direction upon the columnar overturn. Highs tmrw topping out in the lower 80s generally will signal the official end to this brutal heat/humidity. Almost daily highs in the low-mid 80s are so welcome.
227 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 The decaying area of showers and resulting cloud cover will greatly limit the highs over the western counties, as it was only 75 degrees at Dodge City as of 2 pm, even cooler upper 60s in the Cimarron grasslands. The cooler post frontal airmass will result in pleasant overnight temperatures in the 50s, for much of the area. The cooler airmass and easterly wind component will keep temperatures limited on Sunday to the 80s much more pleasant and cooler than typical late August highs in the 90s. Although temperatures are sure to warm up again in the coming week, the retreating high pressure over the Upper Midwest and regional vicinity will exerts itâs influence even in to western Kansas with the northeast oriented surface winds , essentially preventing any strong adiabatic heating from typical downslope.
1256 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the lower 80s to lower 90s. A cold front currently extends from northwest Indiana through central Missouri and into southwest Oklahoma. The large upper level ridge that brought record heat will retreat to the western U. through Sunday morning, which will allow a cold front to move through the Midsouth tonight.
Although temperatures climbed into the lower 90s yet again today, dew points plummeted to around 70F late this afternoon. Combined with dew points in the lower 70s, a welcomed, very brief touch of autumn expected.
While there could be some activity this afternoon and evening, the eastward propagation of the slow moving ridge axis towards the Intermountain West will effectively cut off any additional moisture advection into the region.
Drier and warmer conditions expected Sunday with moisture shifted eastward into central and eastern Idaho. Thunderstorms will be possible in the mountains but the lower valleys appear to remain clear late Sunday morning through evening. Mainly VFR with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain in the afternoon.
The mid level ridge, that has been providing sweltering heat over north Texas, will move southward toward the region on Sunday.
The decaying area of showers and resulting cloud cover will greatly limit the highs over the western counties, as it was only 75 degrees at Dodge City as of 2 pm, even cooler upper 60s in the Cimarron grasslands. The cooler post frontal airmass will result in pleasant overnight temperatures in the 50s, for much of the area. The cooler airmass and easterly wind component will keep temperatures limited on Sunday to the 80s much more pleasant and cooler than typical late August highs in the 90s. Although temperatures are sure to warm up again in the coming week, the retreating high pressure over the Upper Midwest and regional vicinity will exerts itâs influence even in to western Kansas with the northeast oriented surface winds , essentially preventing any strong adiabatic heating from typical downslope.
317 PM MDT Sat Aug 26 2023 The low level moisture.
930 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 High pressure will build into the area for the beginning of the week.
1036 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Update/Marine High pressure is firmly in control of the area weather this evening with a sprawling high centered over Lake Superior and adjacent Ontario. - High pressure in Control for Sunday High pressure will be centered up over Lake Superior to start Sunday. The NAM solutions suggest we may see normally cooler locations making a run at the dipping below 40 degrees, most models are showing lows in the 40's.
(Sunday through Saturday) The upper level ridge will continue to shift westwards and weaken the next day or two, allowing the storm track to nudge closer to our area.
939 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 A trough is situated over Quebec to the East Coast with a ridge back to the west. The low can be seen spinning on visible satellite over Missouri and northeast Kansas. After the cold front passed through last evening/night, this brought a much needed cool down for the Sunflower State.
751 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 After a cold front passes south of the region tonight, much cooler and less humid weather will be on tap for Sunday with high temperatures only reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s. 25 18z/1pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from northern Indiana to northern Missouri. Widely scattered showers/storms will linger along/south of the cold front for the next several hours. After some lingering morning cloud cover, skies will become mostly sunny by Sunday afternoon as northeasterly winds bring cooler/drier air into the region. High temperatures will be considerably cooler than they have recently been.
659 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures continue Sunday.
726 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 A cold front continues to sag south across the area this evening.
716 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Updated to end the Excessive Heat Warning behind an outflow boundary acting as the effective cold front. A cold front will begin to move into the Mid-South from the north tonight. As the cold front pushes further south on Sunday, additional thunderstorms are possible. Behind the cold front, cooler and drier air will move into the region bringing an end to the very hot and humid conditions.
907 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 A cold front continues to sag south across the area this evening.
549 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Observations early this afternoon show the cold front over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois with a few thunderstorms developing ahead of it. Across Middle TN, our temperatures have warmed into the low to mid-90's with mostly clear skies. As far as thunderstorms for the rest of today, hit-and-miss storms will continue to be possible ahead of the cold front through this evening. Otherwise, look for much cooler temperatures on Sunday behind the cold front.
630 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) An upper level ridge centered over west Texas will propagate west tonight towards the Arizona/New Mexico border by Sunday. In the mid-levels a combination of subsidence from the ridge and advection will provide a layer of dry air aloft that will inhibit convection Sunday. The lower dewpoints should keep heat index values below Heat Advisory Criteria. A combination of 20ft winds being forecast to stay below 10mph tomorrow afternoon and above normal to normal fuel moisture offset the low Relative Humidity values tomorrow and keeps us below Fire Danger Statement criteria.
A weak inverted trough near the NW Bahamas will continue to shift westward toward the area tonight. Lows will range from the low to mid 70s, except upper 70s to near 80 along the immediate coast/barrier islands where easterly winds remain elevated. Onshore winds will continue into tonight around 10 knots, with showers continuing to increase south of the Cape overnight from an approaching weak inverted trough. This activity will increase in coverage through the daytime tomorrow as moisture continues to rise from a weak inverted trough that will push westward across the area.
629 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 A cold front will begin to move into the Mid-South from the north tonight. As the cold front pushes further south on Sunday, additional thunderstorms are possible. Behind the cold front, cooler and drier air will move into the region bringing an end to the very hot and humid conditions.
NE low level wind ahead of inbound high pressure promotes the clearing trend while surface gusts end with the loss of daytime boundary layer instability. Dry weather has generally held across SE MI with the exception being a few brief spotty showers south of I-696 tied to the passage of a weak cold front. This high brings with it a significantly drier airmass with surface dewpoints falling into the 50s to perhaps 40s in the north.
727 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 A weak cold front will drift southeast and cross the region through tonight. High pressure will then slide from the Lower Great Lakes into New England in the wake of this front.
Lows are forecast to drop into the low to mid 70s overnight.
1055 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 A weak cold front will drift southeast and cross the region through tonight. High pressure will then slide from the Lower Great Lakes into New England in the wake of this front.
An upper low was positioned offshore from OR this afternoon. Dry subsident southwesterly flow aloft was occurring along the south-southeast periphery of the low over NRN CA.
Fog is expected to develop overnight, especially for the higher terrain and northeast TN into VA. A strong upper trough will approach the area toward morning. For sunday, frontal boundary will sag into Tennessee valley with the strong upper trough moving toward the region. Otherwise, fairly widespread convection tomorrow with cooler conditions spreading into the northern half of Tennessee and southwest Virginia.
557 PM MDT Sat Aug 26 2023 The low level moisture.
645 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 A trough is situated over Quebec to the East Coast with a ridge back to the west. The low can be seen spinning on visible satellite over Missouri and northeast Kansas. After the cold front passed through last evening/night, this brought a much needed cool down for the Sunflower State.
Stronger energy was lurking back into central Idaho and progged to round the ridge axis in place this evening and tonight, and move into western and central zones. TWH The Northern Rockies will be under the periphery of an upper ridge through most of Sunday. This wave will also bring a weak cold front southwestward over the area, with drier air moving in from the northeast and aloft. Showers and thunderstorms are likely in the mountains and foothills (50-70% chance) but have a lower though still appreciable chance of occurring in the lower elevations of south central MT, including Billings, at 20-40%.
Within a broad nern-CONUS mid-level trough and developing speed maximum, a weak cold front will advance sewd across wrn PA through this evening, eventually stalling in vicinity of the ridges. Fog development is possible tonight as cooler air spreads across the warm rivers, but the potential could be offset by faster onset of dry air within the modest post-frontal cold-advection regime. Quiet weather on the whole, and temperature near climatological normal, are likely (high confidence) to continue through Sun as high pressure begins to build across the Great Lakes.
707 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 A weak cold front will drift southeast and cross the region through tonight. High pressure will then slide from the Lower Great Lakes into New England in the wake of this front.