Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
233 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure brings dry, seasonable weather today and Thursday. Upper level ridging slowly shifts east with the region in northwesterly flow aloft through the period. At the surface, high pressure over the Lower Great Lakes yields weak but dry northerly flow through the day. Dry and increasingly warm conditions continue for the most areas Thursday as a high pressure remains in control. Models indicate a weak H500 wave moving from the southwest within a weak ridge.
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continue to show a complex pattern with a mid level ridge over the area with upper level troughs on both the east and west coasts. Temps have dropped into the lower 60s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
At the surface, low pressure is situated over southeast CO with a stationary boundary, likely reinforced by outflow, stretching from southwest KS Eastern OK. Further west, deep upper low will be slowly making its way across eastern CO and into northwest KS Thu night. By Fri, upper low will be lifting across Nebraska with both ECMWF and GFS tracking another weak upper impulse into south central TX.
Troughing offshore will move inland into mid-week with ridging building into the Pacific Northwest Thursday.
High pressure remains in place over the Great Lakes. This led to easterly flow off Lake Michigan which continued to bring in dry and cooler air. High pressure remains to our east as weak flow west of the area tried bring WAA precip into the area today. This was due to the high pressure and drier air in place. High pressure to the east keeps slowing down the arrival of precip the end of the week.
422 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 Dry conditions and warmer temperatures continue midweek through Thursday with highs in the 70s and eventually 80s.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) concurs with the Global Forecast System (GFS) in indicating that the low pressure system will strengthen in the eastern and southeastern regions of the Gulf of Mexico towards the end of the work week and over the weekend.
(Today and tonight) Upper ridge will amplify over the southeastern states today, resulting in a continuation of warmer than normal temperatures across the region. Overall, ridge building into the region is not be very favorable for convection this afternoon. However, eastern reaches of upper low lifting northeastward from Texas into Louisiana will push a spoke of deeper moisture across portions of the forecast area, with enough instability to support scattered showers and thunderstorms.
346 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 Dry weather will continue through most of this week as high pressure at the surface and aloft continue to build over our region.
119 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 Behind a cold front tonight, temperatures will be near to slightly below normal Wednesday. Showers are coming to an end as a cold front drops southward through the area overnight. A cold front will drop through the area this evening, bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening.
Some cirrus will continue to spill across the upper ridge at times tonight. The main driver of the weather over the next 3-7 days will be an amplifying trough over the eastern Pacific. Currently, an elongated upper level ridge is situated over a majority of the CONUS. However, as this low deepens west of CA, broad WAA will induce height rises over the Plains, leading to amplified ridging over the Missouri to Ohio Vallies. Conditions should remain dry underneath AVA upstream ridging flow on Thursday, but by Thursday night, uncertainty will increase with weak low level waves of moisture propagating over the region. The remainder of the end of the week will see periodic chances of rain as waves continue to develop down stream of the upper level trough and associated LLJ nightly maximums.
Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 60s over inland areas and in the mid to upper 60s for areas closer to the shore. Initially above average high temperatures on Wednesday will cool to be closer to the seasonal average by Thursday as cooler temperatures associated with the air mass behind the front filter in over the area.
115 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure has built south across the area and will persist through at least Thursday night. A low pressure system may begin to impact the region by late week. High pressure and a dominate upper level ridge have built across the area today, allowing for dry conditions and clear skies to return. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the low to mid 40s, although wouldn't be surprised if it was a bit cooler in some locations due to clear skies and increased diurnal cooling.
The highest risk for flooding appears to be in SE TX where ample rainfall has already occurred over the past 24hrs and more is forecast there as opposed to farther east.
On Wednesday, a quick-moving trough will deliver cooler and windier conditions along with a chance for a few rain or high elevation snow showers. A trough approaches the coast of California, preparing to move eastward and across Arizona tomorrow. A compact upper low will enter southern California tonight and move through Arizona on Wednesday. This low will drop our daytime temperatures 10-15 degrees, with the axis of stronger southwest winds shifting to eastern Arizona. Enough mid-level moisture and instability exists with this low to include 15-30% coverage of showers and an isolated thunderstorm for most areas of northern Arizona.
--Dry With Moderating Temps Through Thursday-- High pressure (sfc and aloft) will provide a continuation of outstanding springtime weather through Thursday, featuring mainly clear skies with pleasant temperatures and humidities. Very dry air mass with dew points in the 30s combined with light to calm winds will allow temps tonight to dip down into the lower to mid 40s.
High temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s through the week, with little relief provided by afternoon rains.
Starting Wednesday, a ridge will begin to build along the coast and kickoff another dry warming trend across the region. By Thursday, the ridge will be in place.
This is stronger than model advertised and the low level jet is hanging on and may persist til 13/14z. Freezing levels remain low so hail would be the main threat with mostly sub severe hail, though risk of 1 inch hail is present. There is upper level ridging through from southern MN and Iowa into North Dakota.
644 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
655 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure will promote mostly dry weather with a warming trend through the second half of the week. Calm and quiet weather prevails once again today as high pressure extends from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes across Ontario Province. Temperatures aloft are warmer than the day prior, which will translate to highs this afternoon in the mid 60s to low 70s. Pleasant and warmer weather Thursday with broad anticyclonic flow across the east. Highs will top out in the low to mid 70s for most. Cooler in the 60s along the Lake Erie shoreline, and east of Lake Ontario from the east and southeastern shores to the Black River Valley, and across the Watertown Metro. as a negatively tilted mid level ridge will largely remain centered over the Ohio valley and Upper Mississippi valley.
Today is the last day of the upper level trough being over the region.
Ensembles show ridging building over the region through the remainder of the week bringing significantly warmer temperatures and dry conditions.
604 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 Dry conditions and warmer temperatures continue midweek through Thursday with highs in the 70s and eventually 80s.
505 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
654 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper ridge will amplify over the southeastern states today, resulting in a continuation of warmer than normal temperatures across the region. Overall, ridge building into the region is not be very favorable for convection this afternoon. However, eastern reaches of upper low lifting northeastward from Texas into Louisiana will push a spoke of deeper moisture across portions of the forecast area, with enough instability to support scattered showers and thunderstorms.
956 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure will build overhead today before moving offshore late in the week. A frontal boundary will stall nearby for the weekend with waves of low pressure tracking along it, bringing unsettled conditions. With high pressure overhead and slowly moving east, smoke may remain in the area for the next few days. Today will be milder with highs in the low to mid 70s for the lower elevations and 60s in the mtns. With the low overhead tonight, winds should go calm with radiational cooling prevailing. The aforementioned area of high pressure will meander further east and reside just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Thu evening. Thu will be even milder given the southerly return flow with the high pressure offshore with highs in the low 80s for most (70s mtns).
A storm south of Mobridge continues to move eastward as some clouds begin to move into the region from the southwest. If a low level stratus layer remains through the day it will be hard to heat the lower levels enough to realize this potential. Temperatures today are expected to be even warmer than yesterday due to continued WAA.
A passing dry storm system will bring cooler temperatures Wednesday into Thursday with gusty winds Wednesday, especially from Tucson eastward.
By tomorrow, high pressure builds over the western United States, bringing warming temperatures, dry conditions and light winds to the region.
These clouds are in response to cyclonic flow ahead of an area of low pressure that is at the base of a negatively tilted trough. This disturbance will be supported by a 100kt jet streak that will be moving through the base of said trough this morning. QG forcing, according to several deterministic models, will be impressive as the low moves across the area and will provide plenty of lift as the afternoon wears on thus the precip. For today then, increasing clouds with some light precip starting later this evening with snow for the higher elevations after midnight and rain at the lower elevations. QPF amounts away from the higher terrain should be around 0. 1 inches or so though some heavier bands will likely setup as energy rotates around the low during the day Thursday.
633 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) A mid/upper low over central Texas will slowly meander northward today. The environment to the east of the low features ample lift and PWAT along with some modest instability. It just so happens that southeast Texas is located within this environment east of the low. Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated during the afternoon hours as the low pulls away.
627 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023 (Today and tonight) A weak upper low over central Texas will lift north-northeast to near or just north of the Dallas/Fort Worth area today. A stronger upper low will move east across the Desert Southwest to the Arizona/New Mexico border today. The aforementioned upper low will lift northeast to near the border of far northeastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado by sunrise Thursday.
940 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 Forecast is in great shape this morning as high pressure provides quiet conditions across central Indiana. Ridging at the surface and aloft will lead to continued mostly clear skies, dry weather, and mild temperatures through tonight. Will increase diurnal temperature range a bit, primarily on the min temp side, as the aforementioned decoupling should allow for very effective radiational cooling and bring lows to the lower side of the guidance envelope. Thursday: Amplifying mid-upper ridge and positive 500-mb height anomalies are present.
733 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
846 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure brings dry, seasonable weather today and Thursday. Upper level ridging slowly shifts east with the region in northwesterly flow aloft through the period. At the surface, high pressure over the Lower Great Lakes yields weak but dry northerly flow through the day. Dry and increasingly warm conditions continue for the most areas Thursday as a high pressure remains in control. Models indicate a weak H500 wave moving from the southwest within a weak ridge.
A low pressure system pulling away across Arizona today will produce breezy to windy conditions and slightly cooler temperatures. This will be followed by a ridge of high pressure and a warming trend developing Thursday through the weekend.
624 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure over the southern Great Lakes will move slowly east through the next day or so, with dry and sunny conditions expected.
722 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 Aviation -- Warm and Dry Through Thursday -- Increasingly warm yet still rather dry air will be slowly flowing in on the back side of high pressure today and Thursday.
746 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 Stable high pressure will bring quiet VFR conditions to Southeast Michigan today and tonight. Upper level ridging over the Plains continues amplifying in response to an upstream trough digging into the Front Range which maintains persistent height rises over SE MI through Thursday.
923 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure over the southern Great Lakes will move slowly east through the next day or so, with dry and sunny conditions expected.
932 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure over the southern Great Lakes will move slowly east through the next day or so, with dry and sunny conditions expected.
921 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
402 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023 A storm south of Mobridge continues to move eastward as some clouds begin to move into the region from the southwest. If a low level stratus layer remains through the day it will be hard to heat the lower levels enough to realize this potential. Temperatures today are expected to be even warmer than yesterday due to continued WAA.
A fast-moving low pressure system will deliver cooler and windy conditions today, along with a chance for a few rain and high elevation snow showers. On Wednesday, a quick-moving trough will deliver cooler and windier conditions along with a chance for a few rain or high elevation snow showers. A compact upper low over the Imperial Sand Dunes this morning will move into central Arizona later this morning and into New Mexico this evening. The low will be filling as it moves into our area, but enough cold air and mid-level instability exists for scattered rain and high elevation snow showers. Southwest gradients ahead of the low have already produced strong winds at KIPL/KYUM this morning and these gradients will shift east through the day, with the strongest winds in our eastern CWA by the afternoon.
552 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023 (Today through Thursday) Upper level ridge has built into the region and we are seeing light winds across the area. The highest instability will be west of I-24 and this is where we will see widespread activity. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) A few showers will linger into early Thursday as the short wave trough exits the region. The upper level ridge will then amplify into the weekend bringing hot conditions with highs possibly reaching the lower 90s.
601 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure brings dry, seasonable weather today and Thursday. Upper level ridging slowly shifts east with the region in northwesterly flow aloft through the period. At the surface, high pressure over the Lower Great Lakes yields weak but dry northerly flow through the day. Dry and increasingly warm conditions continue for the most areas Thursday as a high pressure remains in control. Models indicate a weak H500 wave moving from the southwest within a weak ridge.
Water vapor imagery highlights a negatively tilted trough over the Four Corners, a mid to upper-level ridge axis across the Heartland, and weak westerlies across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. The southeastern flank of the trough reaches to near the Rio Grande. Low-level cumulus continues to struggle late this morning along the Lower Keys, and any afternoon cloud line will have similar struggles.
552 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023 (Today through Thursday) Upper level ridge has built into the region and we are seeing light winds across the area. The highest instability will be west of I-24 and this is where we will see widespread activity.
617 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023 (Today through Thursday) Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue today as moisture continues to move around an area of low pressure to the north of us. Precipitation will begin to taper off this afternoon as the low moves to the northeast and a weak ridge will build in over the area.
433 AM PDT Wed May 10 2023 A fast-moving low pressure system is moving east of the area.
740 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 Dry weather will continue through most of this week as high pressure at the surface and aloft continue to build over our region.
1021 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 Dry weather will continue through most of this week as high pressure at the surface and aloft continue to build over our region.
A mid to upper level trough axis and convergence zone over the lower MS valley into central AL will lift northward through the day.
704 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
Moisture from an upper level low well to our east will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening. High pressure starts building in from the west later tonight. There will be freezing to below freezing temperatures in the mountains as well.
The combination of the wedge and airmass behind the cold front is only subtly reflected in the afternoon temperatures, with highs forecast to be in the low to mid 80s in north Georgia compared to upper 80s to mid 90s in central Georgia. After starting out in the low to mid 60s tomorrow morning, highs are expected to be mainly in the low 80s in north Georgia and mid to upper 80s in central Georgia. Scattered, diurnally driven thunderstorms will be possible once again tomorrow afternoon, with the highest chances anticipated in western Georgia, closest to where the warm frontal boundary sets up.
210 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023 (Issued 210 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023) Tonight through Thursday night: High pressure will continue to dominate this period with mid level ridging across the area as well. We will continue to see warm temperatures for much of the area with an onshore wind keeping locations near the lake on the cooler side.
Highs will reach the low to mid 80s before convection becomes more commonplace and acts to provide some cooler post-rain air. A couple MCS-like structures are being resolved by 12Z CAMs over the Lower MS River Valley region which could propagate along outflow towards southwestern portions of the area tomorrow afternoon and provide some risk for strong convective wind gusts despite the weak deep-layer flow and modest instability.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms (with gusts to 35 mph) associated with an upper trough will develop in southeast Oregon and near the ID/NV border this afternoon.
244 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure will continue to build across the area through tonight. The high will shift far off the NC with mostly dry conditions prevailing through Thursday.
329 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure will continue to bring dry weather and seasonable temperatures to the region through the end of the weekend. Big bubble, no trouble! High pressure will remain over the region throughout the period.
1259 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023 (Today and tonight) A weak upper low over central Texas will lift north-northeast to near or just north of the Dallas/Fort Worth area today. A stronger upper low will move east across the Desert Southwest to the Arizona/New Mexico border today. The aforementioned upper low will lift northeast to near the border of far northeastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado by sunrise Thursday.
113 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper ridge will amplify over the southeastern states today, resulting in a continuation of warmer than normal temperatures across the region. Overall, ridge building into the region is not be very favorable for convection this afternoon. However, eastern reaches of upper low lifting northeastward from Texas into Louisiana will push a spoke of deeper moisture across portions of the forecast area, with enough instability to support scattered showers and thunderstorms.
/10 (Now through Thursday) Axis of ridge aloft remains positioned from the eastern Gulf, nosing northward through the TN River Valley. West of the ridge, a southern stream mid-level impulse from east TX to off the upper TX coast, is ejecting northeast.
1227 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023 Dry conditions and warmer temperatures continue midweek through Thursday with highs in the 70s and eventually 80s.
1122 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
Temps moderate a few degrees more with lower 80s within reach, except turning cooler near Lk MI in the afternoon as typical springtime lake breezes form in otherwise light synoptic wind regime.
334 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure provides warm and dry weather through most of the day Thursday.
118 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure brings dry, seasonable weather today and Thursday. Quiet weather in the near term period with high pressure and dry air mass in control. Otherwise, much of Thursday will remain dry, although a slight chance for showers and storms will be possible across extreme western/southern zones as a warm frontal boundary starts to lift north towards the area. Dry and increasingly warm conditions continue for the most areas Thursday as a high pressure remains in control. Models indicate a weak H500 wave moving from the southwest within a weak ridge.
A sfc warm front remains draped across central and western ND and extends southwest into northwest SD. Our far northwest zones may see a shower or storm this evening in the vicinity of that sfc warm front.
At the mesoscale level there is a low pressure system over central and eastern Texas that is expected to lift northward or northeastward today. This feature may impact parts of south-central and southeast Kansas tonight depending on the exact track of the low.
1147 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023 (Today through Thursday) Upper level ridge has built into the region and we are seeing light winds across the area. The highest instability will be west of I-24 and this is where we will see widespread activity.
A narrow trough swinging across the Four Corners Region today will become become more negatively tilted this afternoon before closing off over the CO Rockies Thursday morning.
310 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023 High pressure continues to remain over the area and courtesy of that dome of high pressure; clear skies exist and temperatures have climbed into the upper-70s. High pressure will continue into the overnight with mostly clear skies expected. As the warm front lifts into the region, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible.
A tornado cannot be ruled out tonight as the low-level jet is forecast to ramp up with 0-1 km shear around 30 knots, but storms are expected to remain elevated which will keep the tornado risk low despite the favorable low-level shear.
1001 AM PDT Wed May 10 2023 A fast-moving low pressure system is moving east of the area.