Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
319 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 (Issued 318 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023) Today through Saturday: Wind gusts are gradually coming down this morning as high pressure moves in. This is a slightly "warmer" range than what we previously had in the forecast. Then warm air advection with return flow around the high will bring a swath of mid-level clouds through southern WI tonight. By Saturday afternoon, the pressure gradient will relax a bit with a weak low pressure trough approaching.
Otherwise, weak northwest flow aloft will follow behind the upper level low that brought winter weather to the area.
532 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 (Today through Saturday) A cold front is finally beginning to slide closer to the region and will slide into the northern half of the area by sunrise.
Lows will drop into the lower 20s tonight into Saturday morning. (Saturday Night through next Friday) For the remainder of the weekend, we will stay warmer than usual with temps generally in the mid 50s and lows in the 40s.
315 AM MST Fri Feb 3 2023 High pressure building over the intermountain west will bring us above normal temperatures through the weekend.
(Rest of Today) A much cooler and drier air mass has slid into the Tennessee Valley in wake of the cold front that moved across the region yesterday. The sharp cool down caused some black ice issues this morning on bridges/overpasses due to the residual moisture left over from earlier rainfall. Expect a sunny and very chilly day for the reminder of the day as winds will keep highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s and wind chills largely below the freezing mark for most of the day.
538 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 (Today) Patchy freezing fog ongoing across SE OK through west central AR has shown signs of improving as winds pick up with the frontal passage.
With the onset of clouds and increasing southerly winds from the James valley westward, wind chill values have largely stayed warmer than advisory criteria the past several hours. Focus will then shift to the warm front crossing the region on Saturday and the very mild temps left in its wake.
High temperatures will range from the lower 50s in the SE TX Panhandle, an area further displaced from the more breezy SW flow to more upper 50s to mid 60s for portions of the central and western Panhandles, benefiting from the warmer SW wind flow. High temperatures will be warmer compared to today as warm SW surface flow spreads east throughout the day. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the lower 60s to a few areas into the lower 70s.
Updated Aviation High pressure building over the intermountain west will bring us above normal temperatures through the weekend.
Key points: -A warm front will move east through north central Nebraska this morning.
809 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 Areas of dense freezing fog have developed for portions of southeast OK and northwest AR, particularly in the Fort Smith area. (Today) Patchy freezing fog ongoing across SE OK through west central AR has shown signs of improving as winds pick up with the frontal passage.
442 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) A quiet period incoming as the backside of the mid-level trough over the Arklatex will exit out into the Tennessee Valley with quasi-zonal flow in wake of the disturbance. Cold temperatures will occur this AM thanks to prevailing high pressure over W TX.
Skies are mostly sunny across the island chain, with KBYX radar only detecting a few isolated showers in the Straits of Florida south of the Lower and Middle Keys associated with confluent (albeit weak) flow. There still appears to be a brief window for a reverse cloud line to fire in the vicinity of the Lower or Middle Keys through early afternoon, although given relatively dry air sampled below a formidable inversion based at around 845 mb, this may end up just materializing into harmless cumulus cloud streamers. Light to gentle south to southwesterly breezes will become southwest to west this afternoon ahead a cold front that will move through the Florida Keys coastal waters tonight, stalling somewhere south of the island chain.
420 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 Key points: -A warm front will move east through north central Nebraska this morning.
The winds will quickly switch around to the south this morning along with downslope effects mixing the warmer air from western Kansas eastward towards central Kansas. Meanwhile on Saturday the warmer air will overtake the area with high confidence of above normal temperatures.
503 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 (Today through Saturday) After near freezing temperatures for much of South Texas this morning, today will be a fairly pleasant change with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. High pressure will continue through tonight which will lead to temperatures near freezing once again. Currently, it does not appear that we will drop to below freezing for a prolonged period of time at any location, but wind chills could be in the mid 20s for late tonight and Saturday morning.
Due to the high uncertainty, didn't adjust the starting guidance for now, but trends will certainly have to be monitored. Given the coupled westerly winds, and the pattern change now favoring above normal temperatures, did trend the MaxT forecast slightly warmer with the 50th percentile.
Afternoon satellite imagery shows gradually expanding cloud field across eastern Idaho as a weak upper-level trough moves through the area later today and overnight. This system will generally be of minimal impact to us aside from some very light snow across portions of the central mountains and into the Island Park area where accumulations will likely be just a few tenths, with maybe an inch across the highest of peaks.
A cold front is moving through the forecast area as of the writing of this AFD. Drier and cooler conditions will move into the forecast area overnight.
1138 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 (Today through Saturday) After near freezing temperatures for much of South Texas this morning, today will be a fairly pleasant change with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. High pressure will continue through tonight which will lead to temperatures near freezing once again. Currently, it does not appear that we will drop to below freezing for a prolonged period of time at any location, but wind chills could be in the mid 20s for late tonight and Saturday morning.
(This evening through Saturday night) Overall, a large scale upper level trough will continue towards the eastern CONUS with a ridge of high pressure building over the area.
Winds under this high will remain light and variable initially this evening, but will settle into a southerly direction overnight following its eastward departure. Temperatures as of this writing range from the low to mid single digits above zero across much of northwestern and north central IL, to the mid to upper teens across my southeastern counties. Wind gusts up to 30 mph are likely at times through the afternoon, and this should push our temperatures up into the mid to upper 30s north and into the low 40s south of I-80.
The cold front is racing towards the East Coast and dry air has quickly filtered in behind it allowing for a rapid decrease in cloud cover which has been replaced with abundant sunshine. Northerly winds will provide a cooler airmass and highs will range from the mid 40s north to mid/upper 50s south with a chilly 10-15 mph breeze this afternoon. Our winds will take on more of an easterly heading tomorrow as high pressure extends southwest along the Appalachians.
1147 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 High pressure will build in from the west today behind a front. (Today through Saturday) A 500mb trough sweeping across the East Coast will bring the attendant cold front currently draped across portions of Kentucky, northern Tennessee, and Arkansas through the forecast area later this morning. Breezy conditions will accompany the frontal passage where gusts could reach 20 to 25mph through the afternoon with higher gusts around 30+mph along the ridgeline of the north Georgia mountains. Cooler air will usher in behind the front, dropping overnight low temperatures ranging from the low twenties to the low thirties. As high pressure builds in along the spine of the Appalachians Saturday, the much drier airmass will settle in across the forecast area.
(This evening through Saturday) High pressure is firmly in control at the surface and aloft, while fortunately the brutal arctic blast in New York and the Northeastern states is not heading here.
206 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 Tonight and Saturday: Dry through the period with high and low temperatures around ten degrees cooler than normal. Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the axis of an upper level trough well east of Mississippi with northwest flow aloft across our region that will continue tonight before becoming near zonal Saturday. With continued CAA tonight temperatures will bottom out below freezing areawide and in the mid to upper 20s at most sites.
307 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 On the synoptic scale, we're on the eastern periphery of anomalous mid-upper ridging across the Plains. The ridge will dampen as it moves east tomorrow with residual positive 500-mb height anomalies becoming centered over our region.
Weak lee troughing this afternoon gives way to warm southwesterly downsloping winds across the South Plains and temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 50s this afternoon.
Cold air advection will continue with low temperatures falling back below normal values and ranging from the mid to upper 30s across SE GA to the Suwannee River Valley to near normal in the low to upper 40s toward the Atlantic Coast.
155 PM MST Fri Feb 3 2023 A ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West will flatten as it pushes east overnight as a Pacific storm system moves east across the northern Rockies. A transient ridge will move across the Great Basin on Saturday and across the forecast area Saturday night as a storm system impacts the Pacific Northwest.
313 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 High pressure centered over the Missouri River basin has provided mostly dry weather aside from a few passing flurries. The associated warm front will cross the CWA Saturday afternoon ushering a regime of WAA into the region. Increased winds and drier air is expected post-warm frontal with temperatures rebounding into the upper-40s to isolated instances of low-50s.
1159 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 (Rest of Today) A much cooler and drier air mass has slid into the Tennessee Valley in wake of the cold front that moved across the region yesterday. The sharp cool down caused some black ice issues this morning on bridges/overpasses due to the residual moisture left over from earlier rainfall. Expect a sunny and very chilly day for the reminder of the day as winds will keep highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s and wind chills largely below the freezing mark for most of the day.
The axis of the upper level trough that brought current cooler temps is exiting the East Coast with the cold front now well south in the central Gulf. Otherwise, clear and cold with lows dropping into the lower 30s along/north of I-12 in LA and I-10 in MS.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 25 50 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 23 49 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 22 48 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 19 47 29 52 / 0 0 0 0.
The CWA will be on the west side of the upper troughing pattern, which will keep continued northwest flow in place. Saturday and Saturday night: The aforementioned high pressure system will shift well off to the east of the area Saturday morning as low pressure drifts across the Upper Mississippi Valley.
High pressure building over the intermountain west will bring us above normal temperatures through the weekend.
On Saturday, will see northwest winds in the afternoon gusting 30-40 mph behind a cold front.
258 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday) Cold front has moved through the CWA along with the widespread precip. Clearing has occurred and a cooler and drier airmass will settle across much of the state. Temp values will begin to moderate Saturday night as winds shift to the east, increasing the low level moisture.
Today's 12Z observed soundings at sites behind yesterday's cold front, including here at TOP, showed an extremely dry and shallow layer of air just above the surface with dew points near -40C as that ridge moved into the area. Winds have also increased in central KS where the pressure gradient is stronger on the western flank of the departing ridge. WAA is setting up as the ridge moves east, which allowed for a quick warm up today.
1116 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) A quiet period incoming as the backside of the mid-level trough over the Arklatex will exit out into the Tennessee Valley with quasi-zonal flow in wake of the disturbance. Cold temperatures will occur this AM thanks to prevailing high pressure over W TX.
Abundant mid to high level clouds may also be found at times through tonight from the lifting warm front and from some upstream clouds coming off of the Rockie Mountains.
2 AM temperatures have fallen to the negative single digits over Iowa, and the lower + single digits over Illinois/NE Missouri.
Temperatures have warmed up nicely from the bitterly cold conditions observed this morning, with 20z/2 PM temperatures in the single digits above zero north to the lower/middle teens south. 1) A cold night ahead, but not as cold as it was this morning 2) Temperatures rebound for Saturday, with continued dry conditions The high pressure ridge axis will continue to move away from the area this evening, with southerly return flow developing in its wake tonight through Saturday. Temperatures will continue to warm up Saturday, with high temperatures in the lower 30s north to the upper 40s south.
1241 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 A much cooler airmass will settle into the region today. As we get on the back side of the high on Saturday, increasing southerly flow will lead to a warming trend.
305 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 Cold high pressure will build over the area through Saturday.
(This afternoon through Saturday Night) A reinforcing cold front dropped across the area last night, giving us a sunny but brisk, chilly day. High pressure extending from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains will shift across the OH/TN Valleys tonight. A low amplitude ridge aloft will keep fair wx in place. Saturday night will bring increasing clouds as a weak, dry trough approaches.
Overnight, an increase in scattered cirrus and SWly downslope winds of 10-20 mph will work together to support milder temperatures sunrise Saturday, in the 20s north, and the lower 30s elsewhere.
High pressure brings dry weather this weekend, with a warmup.
320 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 Cold high pressure will build over the area through Saturday.
108 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 High pressure will build across the region tonight and pass overhead Saturday.
(Tonight) With high pressure in control, clear/dry conditions are prevailing across the Tennessee Valley. As winds decouple overnight, it will create a good set-up for radiational cooling and an even cooler night. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 20s by early Saturday morning, with wind chills slipping into the upper teens.
This is mainly due to the building high pressure and drier airmass overtaking the area, so with decreasing clouds comes cooler overnight temperatures. There is potential for patchy fog and freezing fog to spread across the area again tonight into early Saturday morning again, but should be short lived as temperatures will be slightly warmer and will warm much faster Saturday morning.
SW flow out ahead of this will start to bring in a (comparatively) warmer airmass. Widespread precip is anticipated as a trough axis traverses through, with some RA mixing in possible within the warm sector early in the night before SN more readily dominates later in the night into early Tue. As for lows, they won't necessarily follow the typical trend of following suit with the highs, with lows bouncing all over throughout this forecast period.
206 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 Key Messages: - Warmer conditions are in store for this weekend.
Arctic high pressure will quickly shift east of the region tonight, with strong WAA/isentropic lift bringing overcast skies, along with a small chance of light snow or flurries in northern WI. Clearing skies will progress from southwest to northeast overnight into early Saturday, with morning sunshine giving way to increasing clouds again as a clipper low pressure system approaches in the afternoon.
We expect snow to be the dominant precipitation type, but isolated periods of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle are also possible.
The combination of residual gusty wind and falling temperature will create near to below zero wind chill values, most notably in the higher terrain southeast of Pittsburgh and in portions of northwest PA. Wind chill issues will quickly diminish Saturday morning as high pressure passing through the region shuts off sfc winds.
1015 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 (Issued 1015 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023) Temperatures and wind chills are gradually starting to rise late this morning as high pressure builds in from the west. Patterson (Issued 318 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2023) Today through Saturday: Wind gusts are gradually coming down this morning as high pressure moves in. This is a slightly "warmer" range than what we previously had in the forecast. Then warm air advection with return flow around the high will bring a swath of mid-level clouds through southern WI tonight. By Saturday afternoon, the pressure gradient will relax a bit with a weak low pressure trough approaching.
Warmer air seems to be all around, but the lower river valleys are stuck in this thin layer of much colder air. Just as soon as the stronger westerly winds actually reach the surface, that warmer air will very quickly take its place. -------BMickelson Previous discussion: A warm front will move to the east across the forecast area today. The southwest half of the forecast area will be much warmer where some areas have bare ground and there will be west to southwest chinook winds to mix more of the warm air aloft to the surface. The airmass behind the cold front will be only slightly cooler and strong west winds on Saturday will bring good mixing which will bring warmer surface temperatures in the northeast.
1025 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 A much cooler airmass will settle into the region today. As we get on the back side of the high on Saturday, increasing southerly flow will lead to a warming trend.
As temperatures fall towards minimums below 32-degrees Fahrenheit, high-resolution guidance suggests enough moisture for the potential threat of freezing fog starting in the early morning hours, especially across northeast Texas into parts of Deep East Texas. Future forecast updates will have more detail on the spatial scale of the freezing fog across western zones.
A weak ridge transitions over the area on Saturday with dry conditions.
1227 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 Cold front will move across the region today preceded and accompanied by showers and a few thunderstorms. Breezy northerly winds will usher in a cooler drier airmass behind the boundary as high pressure builds in from the north. This high will move out into the western Atlantic Ocean Saturday with the low level flow shifting to east northeast and a rather tight pressure gradient persisting continuing the rather breezy conditions.
Basin locations, particularly the lower elevations of the Wind River Basin, will remain cold.
530 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Sub-zero temperatures today will increase tonight to near the freezing mark Saturday.
Expect the peak high temperatures today around 4 PM local time: Upper 20s in the river valleys and well above freezing for all other locations. This area is very sparsely populated, but for the few folks there, I felt it was best to go ahead with this High Wind Warning, to err on the side of caution, just in case.
323 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 Water vapor imagery currently shows weak upper ridging over the Rockies with strong northwest flow aloft from the Northern Plains into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, lee troughing is in place from eastern WY through eastern CO. By Mon morning, a positive tilted trough will extend from the Northern Plains into the Desert Southwest. The Canadian also closes it off but is considerably slower and has the upper low over southern NM by Wed morning. This should allow a cold front to move through the area late Thu night into Fri, which will bring back some more typical temps for this time of year.
814 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 Upper-level ridging across the ArkLaTex has resulted in clear skies areawide. As overnight lows fall slightly below freezing near daybreak, frost and patchy freezing fog may develop. As temperatures fall towards minimums below 32-degrees Fahrenheit, high-resolution guidance suggests enough moisture for the potential threat of freezing fog starting in the early morning hours, especially across northeast Texas into parts of Deep East Texas. Future forecast updates will have more detail on the spatial scale of the freezing fog across western zones.
636 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 (This evening through Saturday) High pressure is firmly in control at the surface and aloft, while fortunately the brutal arctic blast in New York and the Northeastern states is not heading here.
Light rain is still ongoing across the interior East Bay, the higher elevations of the South Bay, and the Central Coast down into the Big Sur area, but compared to the conditions this morning, rainfall rates have diminished.
Tonight we will be back below freezing and any residual wetness on the roads could refreeze overnight. We expect a warmer day tomorrow across the region with highs in the 40s with sunny skies.
On the synoptic scale, we're on the eastern periphery of anomalous mid-upper ridging across the Plains. The ridge will dampen as it moves east tomorrow with residual positive 500-mb height anomalies becoming centered over our region.
912 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 Isolated snow showers will weaken with a building ridge from the west.
/Tonight through Friday/ Key Messages: -Quiet and warmer into the weekend.
700 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2023 Cold high pressure will build over the area through Saturday.
Under clear skies, lows tonight should settle into the lower to middle 30s generally west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers with upper 30s to near 40 east of the rivers. For Saturday, expect mainly sunny skies as high pressure builds into the southeast. Highs will be in the lower to middle 60s.
538 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 Key Messages: - Warmer conditions are in store for this weekend.
259 PM MST Fri Feb 3 2023 Flattening ridge of high pressure this afternoon with expected increasing westerly flow over the mountains and east slopes tonight and Saturday. There is a weak trof that will be moving through the flow and there is some slight cooling at 700mb by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer in/base of the foothills Saturday morning with the increasing downsloping flow and more cloudiness. An upper ridge will push across the forecast area Saturday night with strong northwesterly flow aloft.
554 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2023 Water vapor imagery currently shows weak upper ridging over the Rockies with strong northwest flow aloft from the Northern Plains into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, lee troughing is in place from eastern WY through eastern CO. By Mon morning, a positive tilted trough will extend from the Northern Plains into the Desert Southwest. The Canadian also closes it off but is considerably slower and has the upper low over southern NM by Wed morning. This should allow a cold front to move through the area late Thu night into Fri, which will bring back some more typical temps for this time of year.
(This afternoon through Saturday) Cold front has moved through the CWA along with the widespread precip. Clearing has occurred and a cooler and drier airmass will settle across much of the state. Temp values will begin to moderate Saturday night as winds shift to the east, increasing the low level moisture.