Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level trough splitting to the north and west of CO stretches from Montana to northern CA and has started to shift southward. Overall however a weak area of mid/upper level qg ascent has remained over northern CO with the best lift north of I-70, ahead of the southward shifting trough axis. On Monday, the west part trough will close off over central/southern CA, with the northern branch over eastern WY in the afternoon. Will hold off on additional highlights but an advisory may be possible at some point, but accumulations should be on the low side of the criteria.
These areas to just name a few include, Butte, Georgetown Lake, Phillipsburg, Potomac, Seeley Lake and Polebridge. Across Lemhi County in Idaho, temperatures will bottom out between 15-25 degrees below zero and the lower valleys in central Idaho around zero to the single digits.
The coldest locations will be in the lower basins where temperatures of 20 to 30 below are expected, with some locations dropping below negative 30. Monday highs will remain cold everywhere, especially in the lower basins. That said, a slightly increased breeze in some areas will help to mix down warming air aloft, likely resulting in highs in wind-favored locations a bit warmer than today.
308 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 A weak disturbance will bring a period of very light freezing rain and snow to parts of central Illinois tonight. Forecast soundings show a shallow moist layer mostly devoid of ice crystals: however, the top of the cloud layer gradually cools as the night progresses, so think precip will begin as freezing drizzle, then will transition to light snow/flurries everywhere north of I-70 by dawn Monday. The freezing drizzle will persist longest along/south of I-70, where confidence is greatest for a thin glaze of ice and potential travel issues for the morning commute. After some lingering freezing drizzle across the E/SE KILX CWA Monday morning, cold and dry weather will prevail for the remainder of the day.
The low level convergence was indicating the region from KMKG. We currently have the highest POPs there for tonight and Monday morning along with light accumulations. Mostly MVFR conditions prevail around the region to start the forecast period as the result of the lower deck of clouds. The low level moisture persists Monday afternoon.
936 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Weak low pressure moves across northern New England and into the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
High pressure remains in control of our weather today with light northerly winds over the area.
High pressure in the western Atlantic will continue to slide eastward, with Key West remaining on the periphery of the ridge. Overnight night, partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the lower 70s. Tomorrow, a mid level ridge in the Caribbean will lift over the area and will limit shower activity and promote warm and calm weather conditions. A middle level ridge in the Caribbean waters will lift north over the Keys and promote gentle to moderate breezes through mid-week.
518 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 (This evening through Monday) Temperatures this evening will be below freezing for the entire area as northerly winds persist. There is a low end chance for freezing rain across portions of far southern Oklahoma this evening, with trace amounts possible. Thermodynamic profiles suggest that freezing rain/sleet will be the primary precipitation types, however, snow is also possible. Elevated instability will help foster the low end chance of thunder sleet Monday morning across western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma.
443 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Cold high pressure will slowly move across the area tonight which will allow for another cold night. High pressure only slowly shifts east and southeast on Monday which means another cold day with highs in the single digits, maybe a little closer to 10 above in central SD.
511 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 A weak disturbance will bring a period of very light freezing rain and snow to parts of central Illinois tonight. Forecast soundings show a shallow moist layer mostly devoid of ice crystals: however, the top of the cloud layer gradually cools as the night progresses, so think precip will begin as freezing drizzle, then will transition to light snow/flurries everywhere north of I-70 by dawn Monday. The freezing drizzle will persist longest along/south of I-70, where confidence is greatest for a thin glaze of ice and potential travel issues for the morning commute. After some lingering freezing drizzle across the E/SE KILX CWA Monday morning, cold and dry weather will prevail for the remainder of the day.
H5 analysis this morning had a closed low over northern Hudson Bay. A long wave trough of low pressure was present over the western three quarters of the CONUS. Within this trough, a secondary trough extended from Hudson Bay southwest to northern California.
1036 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Cold high pressure will slowly move across the area tonight which will allow for another cold night. High pressure only slowly shifts east and southeast on Monday which means another cold day with highs in the single digits, maybe a little closer to 10 above in central SD.
247 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 High pressure situated over Nebraska is giving us a northwest breeze and slowly feeding some dry air into the area. We range from the single digits to our north, to the low teens in the south. Moisture remains trapped in the low levels until high pressure moves in and the low pressure to our southeast pushes out.
308 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 A weak wave of low pressure will pass south of the local area this morning then exit off the coast this afternoon. The pattern will remain unsettled the rest of this week, as several additional waves of low pressure bring the chance for more precipitation to the area. A strong area of arctic high pressure will build south for the end of the week and weekend. Weak low pressure forms off the SE coast today and slides by offshore this evening. High pressure returns locally Monday into Monday evening. The pressure gradient becomes very weak overnight with a light and mainly SSW wind by this evening (likely turning to ENE S of Cape Henry this morning as the low moves offshore).
Warmer air not too far away, with readings in the 30s as close as Woodland Park where skies are mostly clear, while most of nearby El Paso County is in the teens. Wind Chill Advisory looks good and will leave the highlight unchanged at this point. As west coast upper low begins to swing eastward late Monday, sw flow increases along the Continental Divide, and expect snow to redevelop over mainly the eastern San Juans, where a few inches of new powder are likely around Wolf Creek Pass by sunset.
1237 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 Weak low pressure moves across northern New England and into the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
(Through Tonight) A wave of low pressure will track east northeast along a frontal zone which extends across the southeastern US this morning. For Tonight, the frontal boundary will be largely dissipated with weak high pressure building from the east.
334 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 A weak wave of low pressure will pass south of the local area this morning then exit off the coast this afternoon. The pattern will remain unsettled the rest of this week, as several additional waves of low pressure bring the chance for more precipitation to the area. A strong area of arctic high pressure will build south for the end of the week and weekend. Weak low pressure forms off the SE coast today and slides by offshore this evening. High pressure returns locally Monday into Monday evening. The pressure gradient becomes very weak overnight with a light and mainly SSW wind by this evening (likely turning to ENE S of Cape Henry this morning as the low moves offshore).
Low- level cold advection ahead of this high will yield 850-mb temps falling to near -19C by this evening. This wave will likely facilitate cyclogenesis over Quebec, culminating with the establishment of a deep upper low/trough over central Quebec on Fri. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will progress southward through the Great Lakes on Thu. Low-level warm advection will commence again on Sat as this high continues eastward, with warming daytime temps likely for the weekend. Northwest winds to 30 kts will develop today as an area of high pressure approaches the region from the west.
934 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Low level isentropic lift in the 285-290K layer has generated areas of freezing drizzle across eastern Oklahoma and southern Missouri this evening. Some of this lift will expand into parts of far southeast Kansas tonight, however the drier air at the surface slowly spreading southward will keep things more as patchy freezing drizzle. The low level dry air will eventually overtake far southeast Kansas thus ending the patchy freezing drizzle by 2 or 3AM.
1117 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 (This evening through Monday) Temperatures this evening will be below freezing for the entire area as northerly winds persist. There is a low end chance for freezing rain across portions of far southern Oklahoma this evening, with trace amounts possible. Thermodynamic profiles suggest that freezing rain/sleet will be the primary precipitation types, however, snow is also possible. Elevated instability will help foster the low end chance of thunder sleet Monday morning across western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma.
Some hope for warming for the weekend - Small, if any, snow chances into the weekend * COLD WORK WEEK: warming for the weekend? It's all about the cold for the next few days with an upper level trough across the region and an amplified ridge off the west coast funneling cold/arctic air southward out of Canada. Some relative warming starts Tue as upper level trough axis shifts east, with brief return to more zonal flow. However, another trough and slug of cold air is slated by the GFS and EC to drop in for Thu night/Fri.
1122 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Low level isentropic lift in the 285-290K layer has generated areas of freezing drizzle across eastern Oklahoma and southern Missouri this evening. Some of this lift will expand into parts of far southeast Kansas tonight, however the drier air at the surface slowly spreading southward will keep things more as patchy freezing drizzle. The low level dry air will eventually overtake far southeast Kansas thus ending the patchy freezing drizzle by 2 or 3AM.
- Cold early in the week, but a general warming trend expected with warmer than normal conditions possible by the weekend. The large scale pattern features a ridge at 500 mb out across the Pacific Ocean along 150 degrees west longitude and a closed low on the northeast part of Hudson Bay. Highs today should be about 2 to 5 degrees warmer, and this will be the last really cold day of this stretch. As high pressure at the surface slides off to the southeast tonight, our surface winds will turn to the southwest or south.
As such the cooler air should filter in a bit further as well.
232 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Kansas will remain in west-southwest flow aloft early this week, situated between a northern branch upper trof over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and southern branch trof settling from southern California into the northern Baja region.
253 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Clear skies and arctic high pressure are leading to a dangerously cold morning across the region.
Meanwhile, mid to upper level ridge of high pressure dominates over the west central and SW Florida blocking series of U/L disturbances from making it down into the area during most of the work week. On tap for today, a weak frontal boundary associated with a low pressure east of the Peninsula lifts north to northeast gradually increasing moisture over the area with southerly flow prevailing.
221 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Key Messages: - Slick road conditions are possible this morning in our southeastern zones due to freezing drizzle from earlier in the night.
(Today) Light showers continue to track east through the area early this morning as a cold front nears the area. Guidance has trended a little stronger with the influence of high pressure over the upper Midwest, and pushes the front through most of our area by late this afternoon.
323 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 A mix of light drizzle, rain, and snow is expected today as a cold front slowly crosses the region. The precipitation will transition to all snow tonight, with a brief period of freezing drizzle possible.
(Today and tonight) Some light, patchy freezing drizzle was occuring across parts of central into eastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. Much of this will fall in the form of sleet with perhaps some light freezing rain as surface temps remain well below freezing across the entire area. Some lingering light freezing rain could continue to be possible along the Red river.
CAM soundings show a classic refreeze sleet scenario, as the low level cold air is cold enough (-6C or below) to refreeze any liquid from above in the warm layer.
Expect bitter cold temps and wind chills tonight through the start of the week as high pressure builds across the Upper Midwest ushering in more Arctic airmass.
1246 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 Lingering rain may mix with snow before ending Monday with a crossing cold front.
This moisture has been within the entrance region of an upper jet streak where broad and weak frontogenesis is interacting along the low-mid level baroclinic zone. While the large scale ascent itself is weak, the mid level moisture is seeding the low level moisture and allowing a broad region of light snow to expand across srn Lower Mi. The cloud bearing layer across northern Indiana is a little warmer and raises concerns for adequate ice nucleation in the clouds south of the I-94 corridor. This will support a chance for freezing drizzle in the far south this morning.
1128 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Lingering rain may mix with snow before ending Monday with a crossing cold front.
1059 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 (Rest of tonight) There has been essentially no change in the overall synoptic flow regime across the TN Valley in the last 24 hours, as west- southwesterly winds persist between a cold upper low situated across northern Hudson Bay and a subtropical ridge retrograding across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico/northwestern Caribbean Sea. The low temperature forecast appears to be on track, with readings expected to only fall another degree or so into the u40s-l50s.
The low level convergence was indicating the region from KMKG. We currently have the highest POPs there for tonight and Monday morning along with light accumulations.
Eventually some light snow as warmer air begins to trickle in late this week.
Precipitation type last evening into the early overnight hours was mostly freezing rain/drizzle. Given temperatures in the low to mid 20s across the precipitating area, road conditions remain treacherous in spots, and any untreated roadways likely have a sheet of ice on them. Unlike this first round of wintry weather which consisted more of freezing rain/drizzle, the lift is deeper and stronger with this next round so ice crystals should exist within the cloud layer. The dry forecast is helped out by the surface anticyclone dropping southward into Missouri, with continued low- level dry, cold advection through much of the period. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 20s again, similar to this afternoon and about 15 degrees below normal to conclude the month of January.
A low pressure system rolling south through California today will bring wind, snow, rain, and colder temperatures to the area over the next couple of days. through Tuesday A few light showers occurring across southern Nevada ahead of an area of low pressure spinning along with south-central California coast. The low is forecast to push south of the CWA overnight today with a strong northerly surface pressure gradient developing behind the low. Went ahead and hoisted a Wind Advisory for the Lake Mead NRA and the lower Colorado River Valley from early Tuesday morning through the afternoon.
Models are not indicating heavy amounts of freezing rain and or sleet today, mainly on the order of 1 or 2 hundredths this morning, and mainly south of I-20, with perhaps another 1 or 2 hundredths from Junction to San Saba and Brownwood this afternoon and evening. However, as temperatures will remain well below freezing today (especially in the mid 20s in the Big Country) any freezing precipitation (including patchy areas of freezing drizzle and fog), will create icy conditions on bridges and overpasses. The main winter weather will be moving in after midnight tonight, and particularly after 3 AM, with stronger isentropic lift of warmer moist air over the cold air at the surface.
Currently, cyclonic flow aloft with a quasi-stationary upper level low over Hudson Bay.
307 AM PST Mon Jan 30 2023 Bitter cold temperatures will be in place through Tuesday in the wake of our recent cold front.
Aside from temperatures, there is another weak wave that moves through the area during the daytime hours, which will be pushing our arctic high pressure slowly off to the east. This will result in marginally breezy winds starting in the evening hours, and while this will eventually allow for southerly return flow and intermittent warm air advection (WAA), the cooler air along with radiational cooling will likely negate those effects throughout the overnight period into Tuesday. This is thanks to the warmer temperatures that will be mixed down by the semi-breezy winds, with afternoon highs generally in the positive teens to lower 20s.
So far, the winds are keeping temperatures up across most of the valley with readings mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s while it's downright chilly across the wind-sheltered areas at the higher elevations where readings are currently in the single digits and teens. With clear skies and very dry airmass (dewpoints currently in the single digits to 20s), freezing minimum temperatures are likely in the valley tonight and again Tuesday night with lows dropping down into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Meanwhile, mid to upper level ridge of high pressure dominates over the west central and SW Florida blocking series of U/L disturbances from making it down into the area during most of the work week. On tap for today, a weak frontal boundary associated with a low pressure east of the Peninsula lifts north to northeast gradually increasing moisture over the area with southerly flow prevailing. Afternoon highs staying in the low to upper 80s, while overnight lows range from the upper 60s to low 70s through the period.
455 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 A slow moving cold front nearly bisecting the state from southwest to northeast early today, will sag through the rest of Pennsylvania by tonight.
516 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Clear skies and arctic high pressure are leading to a dangerously cold morning across the region. High pressure will continue to shift farther southeast today and Tuesday. The axis of the upper trough will also shift east Tuesday afternoon. Although, there will be some recovery on Tuesday, as mentioned above, highs in the low teens from the James Valley east will still be about 10 to 15 degrees below average for the end of January.
At the sfc, subjective 05z analysis shows high pressure is over Nebraska and northwest Iowa back to Wyoming. Clouds associated with a weak trough and frontal boundary just south of Iowa had advanced over most of the state since midday. The cloud cover has kept temperatures a bit warmer so far and will likely keep lows about 3 degrees warmer across the board into early this morning. With that, wind chills will be slightly warmer. As the high builds east today, clouds will give way to some clearing and partly to mostly sunny conditions are expected by afternoon.
A low pressure system will bring colder temperatures, rain showers, and snow showers through Tuesday. An area of low pressure is currently moving south along the California Coast this morning. This low will continue to move south to around San Diego by Tuesday morning.
530 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 A stationary front to the north today will push southward as a cold front tonight, passing through late tonight into Tuesday morning. The front will sink slowly southward into mid week as high pressure builds from the west.
Midlevel troughing will be crossing the state today, but will have minimal to no impact on the airmass already in place. Most of the upcoming week will be dominated by northwest flow aloft, ahead of a slowly advancing H5 ridge along the west coast. This flow is not pulling much moisture along with it, so no precipitation is expected, even in the higher elevations of the western mountain ranges.
In general for today, high pressure is expected to continue in control with a fairly moist airmass in place and warm temperatures. Daytime highs are forecast to range from the lower to mid 80s, above normal temps. Fairly pleasant boating conditions are anticipated thereafter, as high pressure dominates over the Gulf waters with the only exception being the potential for patchy night to morning fog during the next few days. High pressure in control with fairly moist airmass in place and relatively light southerly winds prevailing shifting onshore each afternoon at least through Tuesday.
The low clouds will likely stay with us through the day, but some improvement in visibility and less coverage of -DZ is expected by around 18Z. The cold front will edge southeast into far northwest AL and perhaps southern middle TN by late afternoon.
Coastal temperature will be slightly cooler (low 80s) as a sea breeze develops this afternoon.
652 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 A stationary front to the north today will push southward as a cold front tonight, passing through late tonight into Tuesday morning. The front will sink slowly southward into mid week as high pressure builds from the west.
Luckily, the pressure gradient will relax as the ridge moves south, which will help keep the more extreme wind chills at bay.
537 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 (Today and tonight) Some light, patchy freezing drizzle was occuring across parts of central into eastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. Much of this will fall in the form of sleet with perhaps some light freezing rain as surface temps remain well below freezing across the entire area. Some lingering light freezing rain could continue to be possible along the Red river.
A ridge of high pressure centered offshore will produce another dry day across Western Washington.
Then to our NW, there is a cold front that extends from Far ERN Canada thru New England, KY/N MS and to the SE TX coast. Although this shallow system may make some progress into C AL, SW upper flow and a persistent upper Gulf ridge will hamper better cold/drier air intrusion through the CWA.
High pressure will continue to dominate across the region, as a cold front moving across the SE CONUS will stall to the north. Afternoon highs will be in the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas, and into the mid to upper 80s over interior portions of Southwest Florida.
641 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 A mix of light drizzle, rain, and snow is expected today as a cold front slowly crosses the region. The precipitation will transition to all snow tonight, with a brief period of freezing drizzle possible.
Areas along and north of I-72/Danville have generally received snow and not ice overnight, but a non-uniform cloud layer has complicated p-type with some freezing drizzle almost certainly mixed in at times. Further south of I-72, light freezing rain and freezing drizzle have been the predominant p-type, though occasional bursts of snow have been observed when cloud layers spontaneously rise into the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). As clouds gradually thin and winds become calm this evening beneath high pressure, temperatures are expected to crater into the low teens or single digits.
High pressure situated over Nebraska is giving us a northwest breeze and slowly feeding some dry air into the area. We range from the single digits to our north, to the low teens in the south. Moisture remains trapped in the low levels until high pressure moves in and the low pressure to our southeast pushes out.