Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clouds will thicken up early as a wave of low pressure rolls up into the far srn tier in the morning. The clouds/rain should keep temps down much cooler than prev fcst had it, esp in the central mtns. Mid and upper level trough (whose axis will cross the CWA during the morning through mid afternoon hours) will combine with some LLVL moisture advecting east from the warm waters of the Great Lakes to produce some showers on Monday.
On Sunday, the upper pattern will start to shift as an upper trough and associated cool front will move through the region. Not expecting cooler weather with this front, as highs are forecast to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, which is near climatic normal for this time of year. With light winds and little cloud cover, expect slightly below overnight temps, as morning lows will fall into the low to mid 60s areawide.
High pressure overhead Sunday night will bring clear skies and light winds. Rest of the week: Warming Up with Increasing Precipitation Chances Warm, southerly return flow increases Monday night as the high pressure shifts east. Along this southerly flow, there are low end thunderstorm chances (20 to 30%) as an embedded wave along a ridge axis passes through the region.
408 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Shower chances return this morning with crossing low pressure, lingering into Monday with an upper level disturbance. Dry weather returns by Monday night and will last into the weekend under high pressure. Recent trends also keep QPF very light for most of the area -- highest across the higher terrain of WV.
1202 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2023 High pressure is firmly in control across the area as much drier air following the passage of yesterday's system has encompassed the region. Removed all mention of PoPs both today and tomorrow as high pressure looks to provide ample sunshine and stable conditions under a dry air mass. Some cumulus may form during the afternoon over the high terrain but don't expect much vertical growth under these stable conditions. The hi-res CAMs still want to paint some isolated convection popping in the afternoon but think like today, this will be more in the form of shallow cumulus over the ridges with little vertical growth due to lack of forcing. Mostly zonal flow (the remnants of a flattened ridge) over the forecast area will start the new week.
Cooler today with a few clouds & haze. Aloft, an H850 cool front is just exiting the south, though we remain in cyclonic flow aloft over the east this morning and this may again fill in with partly cloudy conditions yet this morning before more sunshine breaks out in the afternoon as high pressure to our west finally fills in across the region today. Much of the day will be pleasant with light north winds and cooler temperatures. Highs today will be in the lower 70s north to the mid 70s in the south. Tonight will be clear and rather cool with the high moving over the state. Lows will range from the mid 40s north to the lower 50s south. This will help highs build to the upper 70s north to the lower 80s central/west by days end.
345 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Secondary cold front is sliding south across the region early this morning. So this combined with cooler temperatures could generate some radiational as well as steam fog late tonight, mainly in the river valleys. On Monday, upper level ridging will build into the region while an upper level trough will deepen over the western CONUS. So expect sunny, dry and warmer weather on Monday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Upper level ridging will begin to build in from the west.
Temperatures trend warmer as we head through the work week, reaching into the 80s by mid week as dry weather returns. However some sfc based heating underneath upper trough and cooling aloft amidst mid 50 dewpoints should yield some weak instability by late aftn to support isold showers. This yields quickly to much warmer wx by Wed timed with rapidly rising heights aloft as upper ridge builds across the midwest/lakes downstream of vigorous upper low developing across the wrn US. Showers have been weakening across northern IL as they drift slowly east under a weak area of low pressure. This low is expected to drift SE through the day with KSBN being grazed by some showers this morning.
High pressure continues to filter into the region this afternoon.
1214 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 (This evening through Sunday) One final but well defined short wave trough observed on water vapor imagery was moving overhead this afternoon bringing some lift to the region favoring the Rolling Plains. Subsidence will move overhead on the backside of this short wave trough this evening effectively shutting down any convection that happens to develop. Surface ridging moving over the area tonight will lead to cooler morning temperatures for Sunday morning. Short wave ridging will move overhead on Sunday resulting in rising heights and keeping convection chances at bay.
115 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 (Through Tonight) High pressure will be to the northeast of the area this afternoon, as frontal boundary stretches from western FL panhandle into north central FL. (Sunday through Monday) This will be an unsettled period, as low pressure area moves east across northern FL, pushing a warm front ahead of it on Sunday morning. A round of showers and storms will be expected as the warm front moves through. A cold front will then move south southeast across the area Sunday afternoon through Sunday night with another round of showers and thunderstorms. A few strong thunderstorms will be possible with the cold front passage Sunday afternoon. The cold front is expected to push far enough to the south for a dry overnight Sunday night, and a mostly dry day on Monday.
251 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Current surface map places high pressure across the eastern Dakotas with trough across eastern Montana into Wyoming. Upper level ridge across the Northern Plains this morning breaks down as trough slides through the Canadian Rockies. Slightly warmer on Monday as thermal profiles peak. Series of impulses carve out a closed low across the western CONUS through the remainder of the week.
as the area still stays under a prominent upper ridge. There will be cold front that will pass through Monday night.
CAM guidance is split on the potential for morning rain, NBM and CAMs like the NAM have an increase of showers as the jet swings into the area ahead of the upper trough. Tonight the upper trough axis will swing directly overhead, northwesterly winds aloft will be favorable for upslope flow which might induce a few showers in Kentucky, but not expecting any showers to make it over the mountains into Virginia, nor any in the foothills of the Smokies beyond some light sprinkles.
1114 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee will track northeast across the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
133 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Shower chances return this morning with crossing low pressure, lingering into Monday with an upper level disturbance. Dry weather returns by Monday night and will last into the weekend under high pressure.
That being said there still should be some upscale growth into a scattered to possibly broken line ahead of the cold front through late afternoon. high confidence Dry and seasonable temperatures will be seen across the area as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
142 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Today's mild temperatures and dry weather give way to cooler temperatures and a few showers on Sunday. Temperatures trend warmer as we head into the work week, reaching the upper 70s to around 80 degrees at times, but dry weather resumes again. An upper trough and associated mid level energy swing through the area between this evening and Sunday. As the aforementioned upper trough traverses east, cooling northwest upper flow keeps temperatures below average for this time of year on Monday, still in the upper 60s to low 70s.
249 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Today through tonight: An upper level trough crossing the MS Valley region will promote dry northwest flow across the forecast area during the near term. Hi-res guidance continue to highlight a well-defined trough axis slowly moving eastward across the southeastern US region.
Lawrence today as high pressure builds to our south. A trough of low pressure will approach Sunday night and develop low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday.
Temperatures will be similar to yesterday with highs warming into the low to mid 90s.
We should see a lull in precipitation from early morning until this afternoon when a cold front pushes through the region bringing another chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The cold front should exit our eastern counties by this evening with only isolated showers in its wake. The upper-level trough that brought some beneficial rain to the region this weekend will be departing through the Northeast US at the beginning of the week leaving the Ohio Valley under low- amplitude flow.
Over the past few hours, a weak mean layer ridge has consolidated over the Bahamas. Temperatures have only fallen into the mid 80s and dew points are in the lower to mid 70s in most island communities, making for a warm mid-September morning. An upper trough will move across the eastern U. Global models develop an area of low pressure over the Florida Peninsula this afternoon and have it moving northeastward into the Atlantic this evening into tonight. This feature will act to negate any gradient across our area that the high in the western North Atlantic tries to create, and we will once again be at the mercy of the heating and cooling of landmasses for our surface wind field through Monday night.
A mid level disturbance moving southeast through the Southern Plains, Ozarks, and the Mississippi River Valley will support a weak cold front through North-Central Texas this morning with light west winds becoming north around 10 mph with a few gusts to 15 mph by this afternoon. The first half of the week will be a gradual building of the ridge, currently confined to Mexican territory. On Monday, the ridge will be centered roughly across Sonora, MX. As we progress through the week, the ridge will both expand and shift eastward, increasing its impact on the region. Temperatures will respond appropriately, with highs climbing to the low to mid 90s each afternoon and lows in the 60s and 70s. As the ridge expands, troughing in the western CONUS will lead to a strengthening of the southern branch of the jet stream.
133 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Low pressure off the west coast will continue to bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms to the Sierra and northeast CA early this week with a few storms spreading into western NV Monday. Confidence continues to increase in a strong cold front for mid week.
1049 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Besides patchy fog possible on Sunday morning, tranquil weather The amplified mid-level ridge axis currently extends from Wyoming to the Arizona, with a pair of strong troughs poised to move into British Columbia. Also observed on the water vapor loop is a cut off low pressure system (well off the California shore), and to its south, a subtropical jet moving ashore the Baja peninsula.
Overnight lows in the upper 40s to near 50 are expected, with highs Monday in the lower 70s away from the lakeshore.
The other is that there will be a bit more of a breeze in favored locations as flow turns more southwesterly and the ridge flattens somewhat.
Today high temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid 70s east to the upper 80s west as an upper level ridge shifts eastward. Tonight, low temperatures will increase a few degrees into the upper 40s east and the mid 50s west as the upper level ridge draws closer. Tomorrow temperatures will cool off a few degrees as an upper level trough flattens ridging over the Northern Plains. Temperatures are still forecast to sit in the lower 80s across the state. Low relative humidity combined with breezy winds, from a cold front associated with the aforementioned upper level trough, could lead to near critical fire weather concerns.
Look for daytime highs to reach the lower 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast, while overnight lows will generally sit in the mid 60s to lower 70s (near 80 along the coast). Slightly warmer conditions are expected on Monday as an onshore flow pattern begins to redevelop while ridging to our SW continues to strengthen.
456 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Current surface map places high pressure across the eastern Dakotas with trough across eastern Montana into Wyoming. Upper level ridge across the Northern Plains this morning breaks down as trough slides through the Canadian Rockies. Slightly warmer on Monday as thermal profiles peak. Series of impulses carve out a closed low across the western CONUS through the remainder of the week.
645 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Low pressure will track north across the eastern part of Pennsylvania late today and this evening. An upper trough and associated cold front will then push across the region on Monday.
Upper ridging building in from the west will support seasonably warm daytime temperatures warming through the 80s to near 90 degrees by Monday afternoon. Additionally, deepening lee troughing will support breezy south winds by Monday.
and Monday Middle and high clouds had just about exited east central Wisconsin at 3am, as the upper trough axis moves off to the east. Highs today will be about five degrees cooler than average. The lake effect clouds should gradually dissipate tonight as the center of the high moves overhead and winds become calm.
719 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Low pressure will track north across the eastern part of Pennsylvania late today and this evening. An upper trough and associated cold front will then push across the region on Monday.
1051 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Update High pressure over Ontario will drop down into the marine zones tonight. The combination of a frontal boundary moving across our area and upper trough will combine to bring scattered showers and isolated convection today. Fair wx with seasonable temps is forecast for Monday as high pressure continues to build in from the west.
/NEW/ Update: Forecast remains on track with the weak cold front continuing to move south across the area today. High pressure settles across the region before moving slowly east away from the area on Sunday. A warm up with warmer highs each afternoon with 90s returning to the area. A mid level disturbance moving southeast through the Southern Plains, Ozarks, and the Mississippi River Valley will support a weak cold front through North-Central Texas this morning with light west winds becoming north around 10 mph with a few gusts to 15 mph by this afternoon.
609 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Upper level trough and weak surface front is on approach from the northwest. The upper trough axis should clear the region by about 21z, but in the meantime a few showers and a thunderstorm or two will be possible but the probability of measurable rain at any one spot is only about 30% and the probability of 0. The airmass behind the front isn't dramatically different but is slightly cooler and drier than what we have now.
Looking aloft, an upper-level trough, currently located over the Mississippi River Valley, continues to push eastward. At the surface, an associated cold front is expected to sweep across our local area later this morning and into the afternoon hours.
A pattern change brings cooler temperatures and rain chances through the first half of the week.
618 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Today through tonight: An upper level trough crossing the MS Valley region will promote dry northwest flow across the forecast area during the near term. Hi-res guidance continue to highlight a well-defined trough axis slowly moving eastward across the southeastern US region.
528 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2023 A high amplitude ridge over the Central Rockies will slowly flatten today and tonight. We'll stay in the warm advection regime, and a light downslope component just off the deck will support warmer and above normal temperatures today. The exception will be in/near the foothills where an increasing downslope component and lee troughing will support lows a few degrees warmer. An upper level ridge progresses over the Central Plains Monday.
Temperatures yesterday reached the lower to mid 90s at most island communities, and given the light southwesterly flow, there is no reason to think they won't achieve those warm levels yet again today. Besides the lowering of rain chances earlier this morning for the first period, no forecast changes proposed or needed at this time.
The cold front that has been in the area for a few days now is mainly south of the area.
637 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Key Messages: - Seasonable Temperatures are Expected for Sunday and Monday with Highs in the Lower to Middle 70s for Most.
A ridge of high pressure has settled over northwest MN and eastern ND this morning, with generally light north winds over the forecast area. Another night of chilly temperatures is expected tonight with the ridge axis sliding east to over Wisconsin. In fact, there is some potential for frost development, mainly for the northwest Wisconsin areas where the ridge axis should keep the skies clear with light winds the longest.
Dry conditions and near normal temperatures return for midweek, before breezy and cooler weather arrives for the second half of the week. Ridging will remain across the region for today as a low pressure system off the California coast starts to push to the east. Heading into Monday, we see the ridge start to flatten out as it pushes to the east, which will keep the a more westerly flow across the region and brings in some slightly drier air.
Temperatures trend warmer as we head through the work week, reaching into the 80s by mid week as dry weather returns. However some sfc based heating underneath upper trough and cooling aloft amidst mid 50 dewpoints should yield some weak instability by late aftn to support isold showers. This yields quickly to much warmer wx by Wed timed with rapidly rising heights aloft as upper ridge builds across the midwest/lakes downstream of vigorous upper low developing across the wrn US.
808 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Shower chances continue today with crossing low pressure, lingering into Monday with an upper level disturbance. Dry weather returns by Monday night and will last into the weekend under high pressure. This rain appears to be the result of a subtle wave on the eastern side of the larger trough which will approach today. Afternoon activity is still expected to focus more along the ridges, where better jet support will lie.
(Today) Sunny skies and warmer temperatures will prevail today, with afternoon high temperatures a few degrees above the seasonal averages in most places.
611 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 (Today) Sunny skies and warmer temperatures will prevail today, with afternoon high temperatures a few degrees above the seasonal averages in most places.
another sunny day with high temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s, a blend of 850mb temperatures from the NAM/GFS/UKMET and the better performing temperature guidance from the past 7 days. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 50s with a bit of cloudiness in the 700-500mb layer moving in from the west. High temperatures rise into the middle 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower to upper 50s.
Models tend to favor areas near Orlando southward and toward the east coast as the highest threat locations for afternoon- evening convection before activity moves off of the coast and into the local Atlc waters. The ECSB will eventually form, but the low-level opposing flow will delay it and movement inland will be very slow.
By the end of the week temperatures will be around 10+ degrees cooler than normal. We continue to find ourselves positioned between a cut-off low off the coast of north-central California and a ridge over the Rocky Mountains, which has resulted in dry southwesterly flow aloft and is responsible for the relatively dry conditions of the past few days.
High pressure will gradually weaken its grip over the region today, as a weak front approaches from the northwest. Will see touch more onshore flow today, with cooler temperatures and increasing clouds.
310 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2023 A high amplitude ridge over the Central Rockies will slowly flatten today and tonight. We'll stay in the warm advection regime, and a light downslope component just off the deck will support warmer and above normal temperatures today. The exception will be in/near the foothills where an increasing downslope component and lee troughing will support lows a few degrees warmer. An upper level ridge progresses over the Central Plains Monday.
717 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Low pressure will track north across the eastern part of Pennsylvania late today and this evening. An upper trough and associated cold front will then push across the region on Monday.
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Weak low pressure will move northeast across the upper Ohio Valley today, with a mid level trough digging southeast across the region into tonight. Positively tilted mid level trof near Chicago to pivot slowly east-southeast into western Ohio by 00Z and then across the area overnight. As the mid level trof axis pivots closer to the ILN FA, diurnally driven showers expected to develop this aftn. A window of sunshine through early afternoon will allow temperatures to top out in the lower and mid 70s. Lows tonight bottom out in the lower/mid 50s before rebounding to the lower/mid 70s on Monday afternoon.
725 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Aviation The combination of a frontal boundary moving across our area and upper trough will combine to bring scattered showers and isolated convection today. Fair wx with seasonable temps is forecast for Monday as high pressure continues to build in from the west.
This seems to be tied to a secondary jet streak rounding the base of the trough, which can be seen in water vapor imagery and also as closed +70kt contour on H3 wind fields in various guidance sources. Guidance shows that jet streak lifting north as the trough axis moves east across TN today. CAM guidance is split on the potential for morning rain, NBM and CAMs like the NAM have an increase of showers as the jet swings into the area ahead of the upper trough. Tonight the upper trough axis will swing directly overhead, northwesterly winds aloft will be favorable for upslope flow which might induce a few showers in Kentucky, but not expecting any showers to make it over the mountains into Virginia, nor any in the foothills of the Smokies beyond some light sprinkles.
West to southwest winds will increase this afternoon, especially across northwest Montana, as a dry cold front approaches the region.
627 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Secondary cold front is sliding south across the region early this morning. So this combined with cooler temperatures could generate some radiational as well as steam fog late tonight, mainly in the river valleys. On Monday, upper level ridging will build into the region while an upper level trough will deepen over the western CONUS. So expect sunny, dry and warmer weather on Monday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
305 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Ridging across the Inter-Mountain west is present aloft as a low pressure system is present over the Midwest. Tonight, a backdoor cold front moves into the the northeast portion of the area allowing for light and variable winds to develop. This along with clear skies would support overnight lows to be cooler along and east of the front especially due to radiational cooling so went ahead and went with cooler guidance over the east. Not much to talk about for Sunday other than another warm and dry day across the area as the ridge moves a bit further east over the Plains. With the increased cloud cover into Monday morning low temperatures look to be a bit warmer than the past few days in the 50s.
Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. A few degrees warmer on Monday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. (Monday night through next Sunday) Mid level ridge axis will remain to our west early this week, with northwest flow aloft prevailing.