Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak cold front will push southward across the area into tonight through early Saturday morning. Mostly cloudy skies will persist overnight as boundary moves into central FL, with lows in the low to mid 60s over much of the area. A moderate to fresh west to southwest breeze will become west to northwest overnight as a weak cold front moves southward across the waters. As cold front moves southward into the region into tonight, additional isolated showers will be possible overnight.
1259 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2023 A cold front will cross the area this evening, followed by high pressure overnight through Saturday night.
251 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 As expected the dvn cwa is socked in with low stratus as winds in the low levels were quite light with little mixing, along with some moisture (seen on 00z/11 DVN sounding). Meanwhile, water vapor movie loops show impressive upper low spinning over Montana with a nice moisture feed from the Pacific to the southern Rockies and into the northern Plains. However, high pressure ridging from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico was blocking deep gulf moisture feed northward. Today and tonight: Closed upper low will track from Montana to northern Minnesota with a digging trough into the Midwest region.
(Tonight) The upper level ridge axis will slide eastward out of the Plains tonight and into the Midwest. We will remain in northwesterly flow aloft and in northeasterly winds at the sfc overnight with low pressure situated to our east. This will help keep the development of frost at bay as temps will fall into the lower 30s.
1042 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 (This evening through Saturday) An upper low will transition across the northern CONUS this afternoon, while a near 70 knot 500mb jet axis in the nearly zonal flow aloft approaches West Texas. The low level jet will increase during the overnight hours with 850mb winds around 40 to 50 knots. Daytime heating and mixing will give way to breezy to windy conditions across the forecast area with the higher wind speeds more confined to the High Plains through the afternoon hours. Areas off the Caprock will warm into the mid to upper 80s, while along the higher plains temperatures will remain slightly cooler in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Towards sunset, the winds will begin to diminish as the cold front quickly approaches the far Southern Texas Panhandle.
1250 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2023 An upper level disturbance will begin to exit the region tonight and high pressure will briefly build into the area for Saturday.
1243 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2023 Low pressure has exited the region leaving northwest flow across the area.
Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing the weak cold front draped across the Florida Peninsula, with a drier airmass filling in behind the front. A few showers lingering along the frontal boundary will continue to be possible over southwest Florida early this morning, then slightly cooler and drier air will settle in by this afternoon.
1242 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2023 (Rest of today through Saturday) A weak cold front will be moving down the peninsula throughout the day arriving this evening/overnight.
1129 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 (Tonight) The upper level ridge axis will slide eastward out of the Plains tonight and into the Midwest. We will remain in northwesterly flow aloft and in northeasterly winds at the sfc overnight with low pressure situated to our east. This will help keep the development of frost at bay as temps will fall into the lower 30s.
The light lake effect snow showers/flurries over the eastern Thumb region have diminished as a pronounced upper level ridge builds over the Central Great Lakes today, along with pronounced surfacing ridging extending south from Ontario.
1218 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2023 Precipitation will continue to change to snow this evening as low pressure begins to exit the region.
111 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 Surface ridging is parked overhead helping keep winds relatively calm.
235 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2023 Widespread, persistent stratus has kept temperatures up this morning above the freezing mark thanks to northerly flow advecting in low- level moisture from the Great Lakes region. Precipitation will overspread the region by the late afternoon hours across our far west ahead of a low pressure system, and eventually spread eastward overnight.
1245 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2023 Aviation Clearing of the low cloud deck has been progressing south this evening, with several areas north of I-96 now seeing partly cloudy conditions.
1053 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Strengthening lee cyclone to our west will increase southerly flow over the region tonight, bringing moisture northward into the area. The more likely scenario will be for convective development to occur along/behind the cold front as it moves southward during the evening.
Many locations will hold in the lower to mid 40s through sunrise Saturday. All guidance continues to trend faster and more aggressive with the cold front passage on Saturday, with most guidance allowing the boundary to easily clear the Oklahoma border by noon, if not sooner. Even after these modifications, some guidance is still cooler.
Temperatures are mostly hovering in the lower to mid 70s, although light to calm winds have allowed radiational cooling at the usual cold spot of North Big Pine, where the temp has dipped into the mid 60s during the evening. Dewpoints remain quite pleasant in the lower 60s. Surface analysis depicts a weak cold front extending from the Carolina coast across North Florida and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, a deep cyclone is centered over the eastern Great Lakes, with broad westerly flow to the south of this feature across the eastern CONUS.
The low levels will saturate with enough moisture depth to generate areas of drizzle, especially for locations east of the Kansas Turnpike into southeast Kansas by late this morning and afternoon. The clouds/precipitation will hamper daytime highs for many locations today, although there is a window along the Kansas Oklahoma border where temperatures could rise into the low 60s.
1055 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) A cold front had moved through the area this morning leaving us with partly sunny skies and a chilly northwest wind. For tonight, chilly high pressure will continue to push into the area with clear to partly cloudy skies and decreasing winds.
While cooler temperatures are generally expected on the Caprock, winds will be strongest in this area and a Fire Danger Statement has been issued. Winds will diminish tonight and switch to northeasterly as a trailing cold front moves through behind the aforementioned low. Mostly sunny skies and light easterly winds will persist through the day Sunday with highs in the low 60s.
422 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2023 High pressure briefly slides through the region today before weak low pressure moves across the region Sunday.
At the surface, low pressure continues to wrap up near the northern Montana/North Dakota border. Extending to the south of this low was an occluded frontal boundary that will continue to move across the state today and seems to generally be collocated with the back edge of snow. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 20s to lower 30s today with lows tonight dipping into the lower single digits to the lower teens. Sunday will generally be mostly cloudy and colder on the backside of the low, with highs in the mid teens to lower 20s.
A trough is forecasted to shift east across the ArkLaMiss region by early Saturday evening bringing in northerly return flow across our forecast. Expect overnight lows to fall in the low to mid 60s across most of the area. As an upper level low tracks across the Midwest region late Saturday night into Sunday, a disturbance will move across the Lower Miss Valley region ahead of a cold front. Modest lapse rates and dewpoints in the 60s will support sufficient instability along and ahead of the cold front.
It will be warm and breezy today for most locations ahead of a cold front within downslope flow as cloud cover quickly shifts east with veering low level flow.
With plenty of sunshine and a stout low-level thermal ridge in place, highs will soar to well above normal for mid-March. Southerly winds remain intact across most areas this evening ahead of the next cold front. This front will gradually slide southward into south central Texas during the morning hours on Sunday, bringing a northerly wind shift and cooler air into most areas. Highs behind the front will be in the 70s, with warmer temperatures expected south of the front. As of now, the warmest temperatures are forecast to occur across portions of the Rio Grande plains south of Del Rio, where highs in the lower to mid 90s are in store.
As this occurs, a cold front will push southward through the day, with guidance now suggesting this may clear the CWA before 00z this evening.
Increasing clouds across the north this afternoon as an upper warm front lifts northward. A short wave trof will track across the upper Midwest states tonight and push a cold front to near the Mississippi River. As the cold front enters north Alabama Sunday morning, thunderstorms will begin to develop with more robust convection. Low level winds will veer ahead of the cold front, reducing the threat for tornadoes, with damaging straight line winds and large hail as the primary threats.
Temperatures this morning have fallen into the lower 70s except Big Pine Key where temperatures fell into the mid 60s thanks to clear skies and light winds. By Sunday afternoon, the high will exit out across the southwestern North Atlantic and winds across the Keys will be back to south to southwest.
Today, mainly clear skies to a few clouds will persist, while a drier airmass filters into the area in the wake of the cold front (currently located over Southwest FL). Due to the drier environment developing and lack of clouds, tomorrow morning lows will be slightly cooler in comparison from today. Lows are forecast to be in the lower 50s across the Nature Coast to near 60s south. (12Z TAFS) Residual moisture of the recent cold front is supporting patchy MVFR ceilings through mid morning. Lingering showers over the southern waters will shift south of the area this morning as a weak cold front pushes through the eastern Gulf, with north and northwest winds setting up behind the front.
357 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 Key Messages: * Freezing drizzle, freezing rain, drizzle, and light snow expected across portions of the area this morning with light rain possible into this afternoon.
While the low shifts east across ND today, it will swing a trough across our forecast area. Expect the trough to be across central SD at 12Z, bringing a brief lull of 4-7 hours to the gusty winds before switching out of the west to northwest by late morning through the afternoon hours, and remaining strong through tonight.
A weak cold front will pass through today as an upper level trough traverses the northern plains.
This is all occurring in advance of a cold front that is forecast to move into northeast Oklahoma late this afternoon. An associated warm front is progged to move north to near a Tulsa to Poteau line ahead of the front. There will be adequate elevated instability for a few storms to develop this afternoon ahead of the cold front thanks to the ongoing isentropic lift. However, the best potential for thunderstorms will be this evening as the cold front works through the region.
Key Messages: * Freezing drizzle, freezing rain, drizzle, and light snow expected across portions of the area this morning with light rain possible into this afternoon.
Snow showers will linger this morning across northwest Montana and north-central Idaho under moist northwesterly flow aloft on the tails of a departing trough of low pressure. A broad ridge of high pressure will begin to build today over the Idaho panhandle and western Montana. Enough moisture under westerly or northwesterly flow forced by some weak overrunning will be available to fuel snow showers across the northwest Montana on Sunday morning, primarily over the higher terrain.
The upper pattern becomes more progressive/meridional Sunday as the foregoing upper low continues to develop. The leading edge of this surge, a cold front, is predicted to move across the CWA Sunday.
350 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 A weak cold front will pass through today as an upper level trough traverses the northern plains.
939 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2023 High pressure briefly slides over the region today before weak low pressure moves across the region Sunday.
(Today and tonight) The forecast today remains focused on the well above-normal temperatures this afternoon, where strong thermal ridging and downsloping winds will help bring warmer and drier conditions across West Central Texas. Normal temperatures for this time of year are in the lower 70s, which puts us at a solid 15 to 20 degrees above normal. However, these above-normal temperatures will be short-lived as a cold front tracks through the area tonight. This cold front will bring temperatures back down to near-normal, with overnight/early morning lows in the mid 40s to mid 50's.
Another wet, warmer system early week bringing moderate to heavy rain, high elevation snow, and renewed flooding concerns.
555 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 (Today and tonight) The forecast today remains focused on the well above-normal temperatures this afternoon, where strong thermal ridging and downsloping winds will help bring warmer and drier conditions across West Central Texas. Normal temperatures for this time of year are in the lower 70s, which puts us at a solid 15 to 20 degrees above normal. However, these above-normal temperatures will be short-lived as a cold front tracks through the area tonight. This cold front will bring temperatures back down to near-normal, with overnight/early morning lows in the mid 40s to mid 50's.
Short range guidance shows a 40kt+ low level jet ahead of the low which will produce strong warm advection and moisture convergence across Missouri today, and parts of Illinois this evening. It doesn't look likely that temperatures will fall to freezing or below until late tonight, after the precip ends, so significant accumulations of snow do not look likely. Carney High pressure will being building in behind the low on Sunday, though the strongest cold advection doesn't kick in until Sunday afternoon.
Surface ridging is parked overhead helping keep winds relatively calm. Warm advection ahead of the parent trough should provide lift for some light rain through the afternoon with coverage and intensity peaking in the overnight hours Sunday morning.
As expected the dvn cwa is socked in with low stratus as winds in the low levels were quite light with little mixing, along with some moisture (seen on 00z/11 DVN sounding). Meanwhile, water vapor movie loops show impressive upper low spinning over Montana with a nice moisture feed from the Pacific to the southern Rockies and into the northern Plains. However, high pressure ridging from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico was blocking deep gulf moisture feed northward. Today and tonight: Closed upper low will track from Montana to northern Minnesota with a digging trough into the Midwest region.
Widespread, persistent stratus has kept temperatures up this morning above the freezing mark thanks to northerly flow advecting in low- level moisture from the Great Lakes region. Precipitation will overspread the region by the late afternoon hours across our far west ahead of a low pressure system, and eventually spread eastward overnight.
Light to moderate rain will fill in from the south throughout the day along a warm front.
627 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2023 A low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley tonight through Sunday, bringing the potential for some light snow accumulation to parts of the area.
637 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2023 (12Z TAFS) Residual moisture of the recent cold front is supporting patchy MVFR ceilings through mid morning. Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing the weak cold front draped across the Florida Peninsula, with a drier airmass filling in behind the front. A few showers lingering along the frontal boundary will continue to be possible over southwest Florida early this morning, then slightly cooler and drier air will settle in by this afternoon.
Most of the weekend should be dominated by a ridge (yes those still exist, despite the fact we haven't had one in a long time). Temperatures will continue to average below normal, but should at least approach or be over freezing for most locations, continuing the slow melt of the snow. As for hydrologic concerns, they are limited since snow melt should be slow and low temperatures will still be well below freezing.
Strong system has moved east with weak short wave ridging today with dry conditions expected across all of southeast Idaho.
602 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 (Today through Sunday) Chilly night continues across Middle Tennessee as a few locations flirt with the low 30s this early morning.
A Pacific cold front has entered western SD and switched the winds to northwest. Sunday will be colder than today as high pressure moves over the region.
641 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2023 High pressure briefly slides through the region today before weak low pressure moves across the region Sunday.
Cold front making progress south into the Panhandle and this front will continue south through West Central Texas this evening. Much cooler tomorrow with temperatures returning to seasonal normals.
114 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2023 High pressure briefly slides over the region this afternoon before weak low pressure moves across the region Sunday.
Showers and thunderstorms will move through the Midsouth tonight, along a fast-moving cold front. Following the passage of the Sunday's cold front, cooler and dry weather will prevail through midweek.
Reimer The upper low, now located in NE Montana, has moved east far enough that it's associated front is now through all of SE Montana, and with it, the snow and blowing snow threat has ended, though impacts still occur in western North Dakota and NE Montana. Combined with soundings indicating downward motion and periods of 50 kt winds at 800 mb, and winds gusting 45-55 mph are expected come sunrise, and persisting through the early afternoon at and east of Rosebud County, with the higher hills seeing the higher-end gusts. Upper ridging looks to build into the area come Sunday, bringing with it dry conditions and a warming trend (after temps only reaching mid 20s to mid 30s today). Vertz Cluster analysis and ensembles continue to provide high confidence in an upper ridge building over our region early this coming week.
(Rest of Today) After starting out the morning in the 30s, temperatures have climbed into the lower to middle 40s under mostly sunny skies.
Looking upstream, a low pressure system was centered off the WRN Canadian coast. Numerical models show a weak disturbance cycling through the base of the low into NRN California Sunday morning with attending clouds and moisture spreading into the region during the day for a chance of snow showers across the southern and central mountains during the day. As this disturbance lifts NE Sunday night, the low off the WRN Canadian coast begins to amplify ingesting more Pacific moisture into the strengthening SW flow across the region.
244 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 A closed upper low over the northern Plains this afternoon will open up on its way to the Great Lakes through Sunday night.
1130 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 We had a chilly start with many areas around freezing and a few patches of frost. (Today through Sunday) Chilly night continues across Middle Tennessee as a few locations flirt with the low 30s this early morning.
Large scale features will remain fairly progressive, with current overhead ridging sliding steadily off to our east tonight as that upstream wave reaches vicinity northern Minnesota by sunrise Sunday.
Northwest flow will be found above the Central High Plains throughout the short term period with an upper level low over the Great Lakes and ridging over the Intermountain west. Highs tomorrow are expected to be a few degrees cooler than today and reach into the low to mid 50s.
The latest guidance continues to favor the scenario depicting storm development to the southeast of I-44 that is largely tied to the cold front that will move through the area late this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures off the Caprock are warming quite nicely this afternoon into the 80s, with areas along the Caprock slightly cooler in the 70s. Therefore, temperatures in the next few hours may be halted across the far southern Texas Panhandle behind the fast approaching cold front. A few areas across the far southwest Texas Panhandle may approach near freezing low temperatures by tomorrow morning. The cold front is expected to stall again near the southwest to western South Plains with west winds and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s ahead of the frontal boundary. Otherwise, east to southeast surface winds are expected across much of the forecast area which will contribute to cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
1114 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 (Today and tonight) The forecast today remains focused on the well above-normal temperatures this afternoon, where strong thermal ridging and downsloping winds will help bring warmer and drier conditions across West Central Texas. Normal temperatures for this time of year are in the lower 70s, which puts us at a solid 15 to 20 degrees above normal. However, these above-normal temperatures will be short-lived as a cold front tracks through the area tonight. This cold front will bring temperatures back down to near-normal, with overnight/early morning lows in the mid 40s to mid 50's.
The dryline has already progressed into southeast and south-central OK this afternoon as a cold front continues to move southward, currently positioned just north and west of the I-44 corridor.
The higher end totals, over 1 inch in some spots, will occur mostly across our southern counties. Most of the rain will end for areas along and west of I-65 by lunchtime Sunday as the low pressure system and associated cold front move east of Middle Tennessee.
1158 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 The freezing rain has ended across the forecast area, although some light rain will persist across our southeastern zones for another hour or two. With the rain ending where temperatures were below freezing, we have allowed the Winter Weather Advisory to expire. Key Messages: * Freezing drizzle, freezing rain, drizzle, and light snow expected across portions of the area this morning with light rain possible into this afternoon.
A distinct upper level low over the Great Plains will ride along the prevailing upper level flow overnight, sweeping a pronounced disturbance over the Ozarks and Ouachitas and into the Mississippi Valley.
A weak ridge of high pressure will build over the Northern Rockies overnight and during the day on Sunday.
Temps below freezing with a lingering blowable snow pack is allowing for areas of blowing snow there. Further south, warmer temps and less of a snow pack has kept blowing snow subdued.
(This evening through Sunday night) As of the latest 20Z obs, the main cold front is about 90 percent through the combined Panhandles.
1135 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 (Rest of Today) After starting out the morning in the 30s, temperatures have climbed into the lower to middle 40s under mostly sunny skies.
This light precip is far removed from a cold front located over the southern Plains and an attendant warm front stretching ESE into the central Gulf region. Showers will gradually spread into the area later this evening, as the cold front moves into the lower MS Valley. The warm front will also lift northward later tonight, as some weak low level instability develops. This may allow for a few embedded tstms within increasing showers overnight, as the cold front approaches NW AL.
That scenario should allow Sunday morning lows to be slightly cooler in comparison from the last couple of days. Lows are forecast to be in the lower 50s across the Nature Coast to near 60s south.