Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cutoff low continues to drift off the coast of California, helping to bring cooler than normal temps to the region that will persist through the upcoming week. (Tonight through Monday) Upper low causing a few patches of drizzle and to the north showers, with thunderstorms farther north earlier on across Mendocino and Lake counties. Cloud cover kept temperatures cool across the area for the most part today, daytime highs on Memorial Day will be similar to a few degrees warmer compared to today's high temperatures, upper 50s, 60s coastside, mid to upper 60s bayside to the 70s farthest inland.
(Today) An upper level low that moved in a west to east manner across the Tennessee Valley during Sunday, was now situated over western Carolinas.
310 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 A cold front crossing this morning brings cooler air for today with steady onshore winds.
105 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 A large upper level low will pass to the southeast of the area through Monday. High pressure will then become prevalent through the rest of the week. Any pcpn chances will be fairly slim outside the far SE, with the best coverage focused primarily across NE KY and the lower Scioto Valley. On Monday, the low will continue to the east toward the North Carolina coast. Highs will range from the mid 70s far southeast to the lower 80s elsewhere. For Monday night, as the low continues to drift east off the mid Atlantic coast, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
1227 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023 (This evening through Monday) Starting to see a few cumulus fields developing across the area with breaks in the high clouds. As such, have put the higher chances for PoPs generally along and north of the I-20 corridor this afternoon. Overnight lows will remain comparable to the last few nights in the low to mid 60s. As this trough pushes east through the day, we'll begin to see clearing skies to the west. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon look to climb into the low to mid 80s, though areas to the west could make a run towards the upper 80s should the clouds clear early enough in the day to take advantage of the peak heating.
As the non tropical low pressure system that has been dragging drier air into our area, continues to slowly move further north.
238 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 The region remains within the backwash of the upper low that has begun its eastward progression across the southern Appalachians early this morning. The aforementioned upper low will shift away from the Ohio Valley today.
1130 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 The stretch of dry and seasonably warm weather will extend through Memorial Day weekend, becoming progressively hotter by midweek with daily highs in the low 90s.
A weakening trof over the area this morning will slowly shift eastward during the day with zonal flow filling in behind the exiting trof. Focus for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be areas under the trof in the east as well as higher terrain. For tomorrow convective potential will be mainly over the higher terrain and adjacent plains as the upper energy will be missing over the eastern plains. Continued low freezing levels (10-11kft msl) will continue to support small hail with any storms.
Highs should be in the lower 80s everywhere, except possibly the khop area of west KY.
337 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 High pressure continues to dominate our weather with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures in the 70s today.
336 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 High pressure will bring dry, warm, and mostly sunny weather through most of the week. Any clouds this evening look to dissipate, with clear skies overnight under high pressure.
Discussion: The closed upper low is currently over the western Carolinas, and this low will continud to drift slowly ENE and should be centered near the NC coast by the end of the short term period. The showers associated with the upper low over northern areas will gradually diminish in coverage and are expected to finally end this evening. As the low pulls slowly away, the clouds will begin to break up from southwest to northeast today into tonight with at least some sunshine this afternoon across southern and into central portions of the area. Temperatures will be around 6-12 degrees below normal today with the cooler values north with the most persistent cloud cover and precipitation.
1223 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) WV imagery shows southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast new Mexico this afternoon, as an upper trough moves through Sonora/Chihuahua. However, CAMs show enough marginal shear developing late this afternoon over the lower Trans Pecos and northern Permian Basin that a supercell or two will be possible. Monday, things start to dry out as upper-level ridging starts to build in from the west.
245 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Low pressure, sfc and aloft, will slowly lift away from the forecast area through Tue. High pressure will eventually become dominant and ridge across the area from the north Wed thru Fri. For Monday a mid level closed low will meander across the area and may bring a few showers late. The upper low responsible for our miserable holiday weekend will continue to spin overhead through Monday night.
324 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023 Partly to mostly sunny skies will be the rule across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 80s. Upper low spinning over the southern Appalachians will continue to slowly shift eastward today. Mid/high cloud cover associated with the system will result in a partly to mostly sunny day, but the clouds will do little to inhibit warming as afternoon highs climb into the lower to middle 80s.
319 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 The upper low continues its eastward wobble into the Carolinas today, which will help to keep the focus for additional shower development mainly east of our area. As a result, highs will be notably warmer than yesterday and back in the upper 70s and low 80s.
113 AM MDT Mon May 29 2023 Mean western CONUS trough will continue to support unsettled weather through most of this week as subtle impulses eject and cross the region. A deeper slow moving upper low looks to then meander its way over the region toward the end of the week, supporting a better chance of more widespread showers, esp over the western third to half. Unsettled SW flow will then continue through the rest of the week, with daily chances for storms, highest probs in the western 1/3 to half of the FA, esp toward the end of the work week as a slow moving upper trough advects over the region with sufficient ll moisture.
111 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 High pressure will continue to provide the North Country with warm and dry weather through most of the upcoming week. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Monday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s before much above normal values return for mid to late week.
These are associated with a closed low off the CA coast that sent a weak wave across south central OR. It will be several degrees warmer tomorrow with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. 85 to 90 in the Lower Columbia Basin. Any showers and thunderstorms tomorrow will be isolated over the higher terrain and not expected to be in the vicinity of the terminal airports.
1135 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 Deep layer high pressure will remain in control of our weather tonight, resulting in more dry conditions under just a few passing high level clouds. Pattern Synopsis: Upper-level ridging will stay parked over the Great Lakes through tonight as a closed low pinwheels over the southeast CONUS. Forecast/Details: High pressure gripping the region will keep dry weather and clear skies in place through the near term period. Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon will cool nearly 40 degrees overnight with lows ranging from the low to upper 40s early Monday morning.
620 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level trough continues to advance towards the eastern seaboard today, leading to additional dry weather.
For the rest of the day, the flow aloft will be westerly with weak southerly flow in the lower levels. Once again, best area for development will be over the Cheyenne Ridge with activity moving mainly east across the nrn tier of counties. Highs this aftn will be warmer as readings reach the upper 70s to mid 80s across nern CO. Our region will continue underneath the ridge from the blocking pattern through midweek.
High pressure will build over the Atlantic on Tuesday and will increase the easterly flow across northern Georgia.
Trough will slowly progress eastward tonight. Low temperatures may also be slightly cooler tonight, yet generally in the 50s. A stagnant pattern of ridging to our east and unsettled southwest flow due to troughing to our west looks to remain through the week. The influence of the ridge may be greater on Tuesday, bringing more of a limited shower and thunderstorm threat.
636 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 A cut-off upper low over South Carolina will drift northeast to Cape Hatteras tonight, then off the east coast by Tuesday.
High pressure will produce mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures today through mid-week.
Temperatures today will reach the lower 90s across much of South Florida, with the heat indexes in the mid 90s possible.
1057 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 An upper level low over the southeastern states will move off the coast today into Tuesday. High pressure will then build into the northeastern states and Ohio Valley, with warming temperatures through the week. Models continue to weakly hint at a possible light shower encroaching our extreme southeast CWFA late in the afternoon in evening due to moisture rotating around an upper level low to our southeast. Highs will range from the upper 70s southeast to the lower 80s elsewhere. Min temps Tuesday morning are expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with max temps Tuesday in the lower to mid 80s. Rather stagnant pattern with a broad mid level ridge extending from the Great Lakes into New England with troughing from the south Atlantic coast into the mid South.
643 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023 High pressure will produce mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures today through mid-week.
As a couple of weather disturbances move across the Desert Southwest through the middle to latter half of the week, a cooling trend is anticipated with highs across most of the lower desert communities only topping out in the lower 90s. Latest water vapor satellite imagery as well as streamline analysis show a weak high pressure situated over Arizona with a compact, yet well-defined upper-level low near the central California coast. Under the influence of the high pressure, high temperatures today across most of the south-central Arizona lower deserts will top out in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees while across the western deserts, lower heights aloft from the resulting upper-level low over central California will result in cooler high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s.
The upper low continues its eastward wobble into the Carolinas today, which will help to keep the focus for additional shower development mainly east of our area. As a result, highs will be notably warmer than yesterday and back in the upper 70s and low 80s. Upper level heights tick upward slightly Tuesday with broad eastern CONUS ridging. An upper level low will move over the Outer Banks with ridging aloft centered over the eastern Gr eat Lakes. Flow throughout the column is very weak, but plenty of remnant Atlantic moisture will be in place over the Lower Ohio Valley. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s. Lows in the low/mid 60s.
As a result, nights will be on the cooler side of climatological averages with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s.
607 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 A high pressure ridge will persist over the local area through much of this week.
Model simulations are showing a closed upper low pressure system off the southwest coast of California. High temperatures will be in the 70s, with a few of the warmer locales possibly seeing the low 80s. The model solutions show the aforementioned upper low off the southwest California coast moving slowly to the east, taking up residence over southern California/Nevada Tuesday and Tuesday night.
950 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 A cold front crossing this morning brings cooler air for today with steady onshore winds.
Monday's high temperatures range from the low to mid 80s for the most part with winds out of the southeast and south around 10 mph or less. Overnight lows are forecast to stay in the low to mid 60s.
535 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023 Partly to mostly sunny skies will be the rule across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 80s. Upper low spinning over the southern Appalachians will continue to slowly shift eastward today. Mid/high cloud cover associated with the system will result in a partly to mostly sunny day, but the clouds will do little to inhibit warming as afternoon highs climb into the lower to middle 80s.
655 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Low pressure will meander over central and eastern NC, while steadily weakening through tonight and Tuesday.
545 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night ) Strong high pressure centered toward New England will continue to bring mostly dry conditions and a light east to southeast wind to Arkansas. This will happen as the high drifts slowly toward the Atlantic Ocean. On the back side/western periphery of the high, a nearly stationary boundary will likely trigger isolated to scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms in far western Arkansas today, and in the western half of the state on Tuesday.
1011 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 High pressure continues to dominate our weather with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures in the 70s today.
Water vapor imagery showed an upper low near San Francisco with short wave ridging over Arizona in advance of this low.
441 AM MDT Mon May 29 2023 Mean western CONUS trough will continue to support unsettled weather through most of this week as subtle impulses eject and cross the region. A deeper slow moving upper low looks to then meander its way over the region toward the end of the week, supporting a better chance of more widespread showers, esp over the western third to half. Unsettled SW flow will then continue through the rest of the week, with daily chances for storms, highest probs in the western 1/3 to half of the FA, esp toward the end of the work week as a slow moving upper trough advects over the region with sufficient ll moisture.
631 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Blocky pattern remains across the eastern half of the country with an upper ridge over the Great Lakes. Yesterday's double barreled upper low, as expected, has consolidated near the Georgia-South Carolina border. Another upper low was located near San Francisco. At the surface, weak low pressure was noted over the eastern Carolinas with high pressure over eastern Canada. A backdoor cold front was approximately from Kansas City to Montgomery to Savannah.
(Today through Tuesday Night ) Strong high pressure centered toward New England will continue to bring mostly dry conditions and a light east to southeast wind to Arkansas. This will happen as the high drifts slowly toward the Atlantic Ocean. On the back side/western periphery of the high, a nearly stationary boundary will likely trigger isolated to scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms in far western Arkansas today, and in the western half of the state on Tuesday.
Stepping back, a broad southern stream upper trough is working its way eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Warmer than normal highs and near to slightly below normal lows will continue thanks to the weak flow. Both guidance is now minimizing nearer term gulf pressure falls prompted by a couple of out of sync short wave troughs. Instead, a more cohesive southern stream trough is depicted migrating eastward through the gulf that eventually interacts with lingering low level troughing stranded by the old east coast low.
720 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 High pressure continues to dominate our weather with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures in the 70s today.
The diurnal land/sea breeze circulation aids in the weak surface trof moving into the northern Gulf tonight, then returns to near the coast Tuesday afternoon. Highs today range from the lower 80s well inland to the mid to upper 80s elsewhere, then highs on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 90s.
Mid to upper level ridging will begin to shift into the region on Tuesday which will keep most locations west of Highway 281 dry. A few ripples of H5 energy look to rotate around the eastern periphery of ridge through Tuesday afternoon which may provide enough support for isolated activity east of 281. A warming trend kicks in starting Tuesday with highs rebounding into the low 90s across the Brush Country.
While dry conditions expected this week, there is good news that high temperatures in the lowlands will remain under 100 degrees.
617 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 A cold front crossing this morning brings cooler air for today with steady onshore winds.
Highs are on track to range in the lower to mid 80s inland and in the mid to upper 80s along the coast.
Several degrees warmer today under weak westerly flow aloft.
Gehring (Issued 333 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023) Today through Tuesday: Winds will gradually become more southerly today into Tuesday as high pressure shifts eastward. This will allow for even warmer temps to move into the area, with upper ridging firmly in place. High temps are likely to get into the low to mid 80s away from the lake today. It will remain cooler near the lake due to onshore winds in the east.
925 AM MST Sat Jan 7 2023 We're a little slower to clear this morning than expected, and there are even still some flurries up around Sterling as well as some lingering on the mountain ridges. There is more steady light snow over the high mountains currently. The cloud cover in place is keeping the temperatures warmer tonight compared to the last few nights. Models have northeasterly flow aloft increasing a bit as an upper ridge axis moves into the CWA from the west through the day today. The ridge axis is over eastern Colorado through the night tonight with zonal flow aloft. The low level winds should be a mix of normal diurnal patterns and downsloping both today and tonight. Will keep some lingering pops for snow in the high mountains this morning only.
Clouds within the cold advection regime will exit stage right with the departing upper trof tonight. Ridging aloft will move over the Plains during Sunday with milder southerly flow developing across central and eastern Kansas.
Temperatures will approach freezing across portions of Marion, Chase, Butler, and Greenwood counties. Temperatures will warm above freezing by midday ending the threat for freezing drizzle. Warmer temperatures will return for Sunday as midlevel ridging overspreads the region.
The southern extreme of a trough axis is east of the Bahamas, and mean-layer ridging is centered over the southwestern Gulf.
102 PM MST Sat Jan 7 2023 A transitory ridge will pull across the area tonight with dry conditions with mainly light winds. Gusts along Outer Drive on the south side of Casper could see gusts around 50 mph as well as on ridge tops in southeast Fremont and western Natrona County. Based on the above surface pattern, and the High-Resolution Window Finite-Volume Cubed (HiResW-FV3) model boundary layer winds around 45 knots correlates to 50 to 65 mph on Outer Drive on the south side of Casper.
Not much change in the temperature profile aloft on the DVN 00z sounding, with the entire profile below freezing and showing plenty of dry air. This wind direction is not ideal for much warming potential and given how cold we were yesterday (observed highs were near the 25th percentile of the NBM), lowered highs some from the NBM into the upper 20s in the northwest half to the lower 30s elsewhere. NBM 1" prob of snow have lowered below 10% now and support the lower amounts.
(This evening through Sunday Night) A cold front from near Lufkin to Texarkana to continue to shift southeast through the afternoon into this evening. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower 60s.
1255 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 High pressure will build over the area through the weekend.
1217 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 Low-level 850mb SW flow ahead of a trough across AR will continue to result in weak isentropic lift across the area today with cloud cover and light rain. Even as weak upper ridging is present across the Southern Appalachians, temperatures will be near normal today with abundant cloud cover across the area lowering expected max temperatures.
1123 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Infrared satellite imagery shows the weak cold front pushing towards the I-10 corridor this morning and will continue southward to the Big Bend by sunrise. This afternoon will be about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday thanks to the front though highs in the upper 50s to low 60s is still above average for early January.
We'll start out under an upper ridge that is centered over the central CONUS, with a trough off the west coast.
(This afternoon through Sunday Night) Most of the earlier rain has diminished and what is left is confined to areas near the TN/AL line near a warm front which has developed across the Tennessee Valley.
High pressure and sunshine will dominate for the weekend.
A quiet and cooler day is expected today. Aloft, an open trof will continue to move away from the FA. Eventually, high pressure from the north will continue to build southward across the area this afternoon and evening. The cool high pressure will continue across the region through the overnight hours. The high pressure will shift off to the east Sunday, leading to milder temperatures in the 50s for the end of the weekend.
(Rest of today through Sunday) Drier, cooler air continues to advect into the region behind a cold front that has cleared into the Florida Straits. Abundant sunshine today will allow for temperatures to reach the 70s in most places with some pockets hitting the lower 80s. The pockets in the lower 80s, mainly the Everglades, will grow a bit on Sunday with most areas being a few degrees warmer overall. Tonight's temperatures will be dichotomy between the moderating influence of the Atlantic (60s) and the remnant drier, cooler air elsewhere (50s).
Blended toward the warmer MOS for highs today and toward the cooler guidance tonight given radiational cooling. In addition, the dry air mass and mixing will promote dew points this afternoon lowering into the low to mid-30s, which is reflected in the forecast by blending in some of the higher resolution models.
the ridge quickly exits the region to the east, and the next upper level trof rotates toward the area from the west. Winds are forecast southwesterly on the trailing the ridge/the leading edge of the approaching upper level trof.
- Moldan 505 AM MST Sat Jan 7 2023 (07/12Z TAF Period) VFR conditions are expected for the duration of this forecast period at all airfields except KHLN where LIFR conditions continue through this morning in freezing fog and low ceiling/vertical visibility. An upper level ridge passes eastward across The Treasure State, favoring dry weather through most of the weekend. Tomorrow, the ridge quickly exits the region to the east, and the next upper level trof rotates toward the area from the west. Winds are forecast southwesterly on the trailing the ridge/the leading edge of the approaching upper level trof.
The core of an area of high pressure will be south of the Northland tonight and the pressure gradient will strengthen.
The thick blanket of cloud cover has helped to keep morning temps elevated across the region, and updated morning low to reflect these warmer readings. Key Messages: * Cloudy and cooler today, with a few flurries possible through the late morning hours.