Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
That being said, influence from the approaching upper trough to the west will support some high clouds on and off through the mid to late afternoon with an increasing moisture profile tonight, as seen in the 12z FWD sounding. This is due to troughing, delayed in progression by a nearly stationary (gradually weakening) area of ridging over the Midwest, that now will proceed across Texas during the day on Friday.
1027 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 Weather remains dry and inactive as high pressure dominates. High pressure with clear sky today. Dry air across the region with subsidence along the eastern edge of the ridge axis across the Mississippi Valley. Discussion: Ridging amplifies across the Mississippi Valley with upper level northwest flow across the region. This will continue to place us within a region of subsidence and dry air with low-level ridging centered over the Southern Appalachians.
Weak ridging aloft slowly gets nudged eastward ever-so- slightly throughout the near term as a trough encompassing much of the western half of the CONUS slides into the Plains on Friday.
High pressure returns on Friday, though some light showers may brush the coast.
We have one more day with sunshine and mild temperatures before the next active weather system brings showers and cooler temperatures to Middle Tennessee.
So far today, cloudy and breezy conditions persisting across the area as the pressure gradient continues to tighten up ahead of the low pressure system that is expected to approach this weekend. Surface observations across the forecast area are showing winds between 15 to 20 knots with periods of higher gusts and temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
1221 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 Weather remains dry and inactive as high pressure dominates. High pressure with clear sky today. Dry air across the region with subsidence along the eastern edge of the ridge axis across the Mississippi Valley. Discussion: Ridging amplifies across the Mississippi Valley with upper level northwest flow across the region. This will continue to place us within a region of subsidence and dry air with low-level ridging centered over the Southern Appalachians.
400 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 High pressure will hold over the region through Friday.
1127 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Today and Tonight: continued dry and slightly warmer through the period. This high will shift slightly to the east through tonight and maintain a low level east wind across our region. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low just southwest of the Four Corners region. This closed low will track east to the southern Plains through tonight and further strengthen the induced mid level ridging over our region.
- Mixture of rain and freezing rain this morning. Upstream observations over western KS are are a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Based on forecast soundings, this precipitation should encounter warmer air aloft as it moves into our area, resulting in mostly rain/freezing rain this morning. Temperatures just ahead of the precipitation are currently within a couple degrees of freezing (either above or below), but may trend upwards a degree or two as precipitation moves in. Friday has trended a bit cooler with lingering cloud cover and even continued light rain over the southeastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of our area.
249 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 Very strong and anomalously high pressure (+1040mb) over the Ohio Valley will slowly drift eastward through the short term. Subsidence aloft associated with the high pressure will keep skies mostly clear and winds light. Low level thicknesses are slightly higher for tomorrow so expect max temps to be 2-3 degrees warmer.
(The rest of today ) Closed upper low making very slow progress east this morning and that trend will continue through the day.
1023 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Latest water vapor loops shows the center of the closed upper low over western New Mexico, and radar mosaic depicts a broad area of light to moderate rainfall extending southward across western Kansas, the panhandles, and over northwest Oklahoma. High resolution guidance suggests slightly faster progression of the upper low for this period. As the center of the upper low reaches the New Mexico/Texas border tonight, rainfall rates begin to increase across western Oklahoma and western north Texas.
1117 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 (Rest of Today) Temperatures are warming quickly through the 40s into the lower 50s at this hour. East-southeast flow will continue to advect dry air into the region as strong high pressure over the OH valley starts to shift into the central Appalachians.
1238 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 Strong high pressure will remain in control of the weather through the end of the week.
1003 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 Dry high pressure will remain in place through late week with below normal temperatures expected each day.
1127 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 (The rest of today ) Closed upper low making very slow progress east this morning and that trend will continue through the day.
(Through tonight ) Cloudiness will be on the increase overnight as a closed upper low approaches from the west. Showers will begin to spread into the northwest part of our forecast area near or shortly after midnight, possibly reaching the Highway 69 corridor by morning. (Tomorrow through Thursday) The closed upper low will move northeast into Kansas by late Friday, with a band of showers to its south shifting east across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the day. The trend towards a more northern and faster track to the upper low will mean a quicker end to the precipitation across our area as we get dry slotted later Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be cooler with the rain Friday, but will rebound quickly over the weekend as sunshine returns.
High temperatures range from the 40s west and central, to the 30s east where the low level inversion will hold tough and prevent mixing out to warmer temperatures in Miles City and Baker.
300 PM Update: A warm front moves through overnight, bringing warmer conditions to finish out the work week. Skies will be clear tonight and with westerly flow advecting in warmer air, temperatures will fall to around freezing, though portions of the Catskills will be in the mid 20s. High pressure will keep the weather quiet tomorrow with temps maxing out in the upper 40s to low 50s.
High pressure aloft will continue to amplify throughout the week and into the weekend, maintaining a surface inversion. Higher elevations will see a warming trend as warmer air aloft is advected into the region.
Highs on Friday will reach the low 50s across much of the plains. A large upper level ridge of high pressure building over the Rocky Mountain Region will bring dry, warmer and uneventful weather to North Central and Northeastern Colorado over the next several days.
247 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 High pressure remains in control for one more day before a pattern change is expected for the weekend.
1153 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Latest water vapor loops shows the center of the closed upper low over western New Mexico, and radar mosaic depicts a broad area of light to moderate rainfall extending southward across western Kansas, the panhandles, and over northwest Oklahoma. High resolution guidance suggests slightly faster progression of the upper low for this period. As the center of the upper low reaches the New Mexico/Texas border tonight, rainfall rates begin to increase across western Oklahoma and western north Texas.
The highest rainfall amounts are expected to be along the Nebraska/Kansas border. Today through Friday: An upper level low is tracking across the Southern Plains and bringing a chance for light rainfall late this afternoon into the evening. This feature as well as increasing frontogenesis ahead of an associated cold front will support our chance for precipitation Friday afternoon and evening. PoPs remain between 30 and 60 percent with the highest values in southeastern NE and southwest IA. With surface temperatures remaining above freezing and moderately warm low levels present, most precipitation should fall s rain. However, PoPs are considerably low (10-20%) after temperatures fall below freezing in these counties so any chance of a rain/snow mix will continue to be monitored but does not appear to be too impactful.
Thus, with little change, have issued another Freezing Fog Advisory for the south side valleys, eastern Magic Valley, Snake River plain, and Bear Lake basin.
May have to tweak them slightly higher than what is in the current forecast, but areas around I-96 and south look to get into the low 50s. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will be in the low to mid 30s.
CIMSS total precipitable water product clearly highlights the location of a quasistationary front draped across the Straits of Florida, with drier, anticyclonic flow to the north associated with high pressure parked over the Mid-Atlantic. For this afternoon, some of this shower activity should slowly try to zipper down to the Lower and Middle Keys, but the heaviest rainfall should remain over the Upper Keys.
Upper ridge has shifted to the east and satellite/water vapor showing a couple streams of moisture in the SW flow to our west.
Falkinham (Issued 256 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023) Today through Friday: Plenty of sunshine is expected today under high pressure. Additionally, southerly winds on the western side of the high will allow for milder temperatures. Clouds will be on the increase Friday ahead of an approaching trough. The high to the southeast won't budge much through the day though, which should keep the lower levels dry.
1233 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 Dry high pressure will remain in place through late week with below normal temperatures expected each day.
Winds are expected to stay elevated through the period as as the pressure gradient continues to tighten with an area of low pressure likely to develope in the Gulf.
This axis will begin to make more significant eastward progress this evening as the upper low across New Mexico shifts into the Texas panhandle. Rain chances will be highest across western Oklahoma tonight and will begin to ramp up along the I-35 corridor shortly after midnight, with the highest chances here expected 09-15z Friday morning, with the highest chances continuing eastward through the rest of the day Friday.
/EC/ Today and Tonight: continued dry and slightly warmer through the period. This high will shift slightly to the east through tonight and maintain a low level east wind across our region. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low just southwest of the Four Corners region. This closed low will track east to the southern Plains through tonight and further strengthen the induced mid level ridging over our region.
1026 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 High pressure dominates through the first half of the weekend. Dry and cooler conditions as highs only reach the low to mid 40s, with a light westerly wind.
This warm weather can be attributed to southwesterly warm air advection north of an impressive 1040 mb ridge over the Ohio River Valley. However, a sharp boundary layer inversion is preventing stronger winds and warmer temps aloft from mixing to the surface. Not much is expected to change tonight with warm air advection and ridging prevailing through tonight. Assuming the profile saturates, plain rain is the most likely p-type although there's a non-zero chance for freezing rain for the typical cool spots across higher elevations of north-central WI near the MI state line.
441 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2023 Key Messages: 1 - Some fog in the lower elevations, with areas of dense fog in the Wind River Basin.
626 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 Dry high pressure will remain in place through late week with below normal temperatures expected each day.
845 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 High pressure will hold over the region through Friday.
(Tonight) Tranquil weather continues across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure in control. As a result, temperatures have dropped off quickly this evening and will eventually settle into the low to mid 30s in most locations by early Friday morning.
At the surface, the region is currently situated between high pressure to the southeast and low pressure over the lee of the Rockies, with a fairly tight pressure gradient resulting in windy conditions. The gradient slackens this evening as the low and its associated frontal boundary track over the CWA. This would then lean toward more of a drizzle or freezing drizzle precipitation type. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 20s across north central South Dakota, to the mid 30s across parts of east central South Dakota and west central Minnesota. Lows Friday night will range from the lower 20s west of the Missouri River, to the lower 30s across parts of east central South Dakota and west central Minnesota.
The stalled low pressure frontal boundary remains south the state while strong high pressure remains over Central Appalachia with very tight pressure gradient and similar conditions locally as last night with gusty NE-E winds under cloudy skies producing mild moist temps that will continue tonight into Friday with a few areas of light rain possible. So far today, cloudy and breezy conditions persisting across the area as the pressure gradient continues to tighten up ahead of the low pressure system that is expected to approach this weekend. Surface observations across the forecast area are showing winds between 15 to 20 knots with periods of higher gusts and temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
830 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 Dry high pressure will remain in place through late week with below normal temperatures expected each day.
429 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 Key Messages * High pressure overhead during the short-term will lead to clear skies, dry conditions, and light east/northeast winds. A strong area of high pressure has settled directly overhead of the Commonwealth. This is also working alongside a strong ridging pattern aloft. The high pressure center and high pressure ridge will continue to push eastward, with more return flow making it into the region. With strong subsidence in place, along with the clear skies and light winds, radiational cooling will be strong - so expect large differences between the ridges and the valleys for low temperatures.
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has an upper low across north central New Mexico this afternoon, with some waa precipitation spreading north and east across the western OK/TX panhandle into western and central Kansas attm. Regional radars are also indicating some precipitation associated with deformation with the upper low developing across southeastern and into northeastern New Mexico attm. With the clouds and developing downslope flow over and near the higher terrain, overnight lows look to be in the teens and 20s areawide, with single digit lows possible across the high valleys. Drier air within the modest northwest flow aloft on Friday will lead to a warming and drying trend across the region, with highs around seasonal levels in the 40s across the lower elevations and mainly in the 20s and 30s across the higher terrain under mostly sunny skies.
541 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 - Clouds Friday will limit warming slightly, but highs will still be in the 40s which is 15 to 20 degrees warmer than average for this time of year.
High pressure continues to keep conditions quiet over the area through the early portions of the weekend.
Winds most locations will likely help to keep lows from dropping much below the lower to mid 30s.
/NEW/ /Through Friday Evening/ Large scale ridging across the CONUS is being interrupted by a smaller scale upper low, which can be seen on satellite imagery spiraling over New Mexico this evening. This low will be our primary meteorological feature of note as it approaches North and Central Texas over the next 24 hours. Occasional light rain showers over the Big Country will increase in coverage overnight (along with a slight uptick in intensity) as the low moves across the Texas Panhandle. Clouds and precipitation will keep a lid on temperatures, with Friday highs mainly in the lower and middle 50s. A Pacific cold front will enter in the wake of the departing upper low and precipitation, but may lag a few hours behind, which could lead to a brief round of fog early Friday evening.
424 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2023 242 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2023 - Cold front passage tonight into Friday brings breezy northwesterly winds and slightly cooler temperatures. Current surface analysis shows trough located across far eastern portions of MT and WY, with low pressure across far northeast MT and a cold front extending west across northern MT. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough across much of the western US, with main low located over northern NM. Some mid and high clouds are streaming northward across the region ahead of the trough, with low clouds over south central SD.
940 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 High pressure remains in control for one more day before a pattern change is expected for the weekend.
518 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 A ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather and above normal temperatures to the Mid-South through Friday with highs on Friday in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Water vapor imagery shows the low pressure center over New Mexico and a 500 mb ridge has started to build over the region. The ridge will continue to build up through the weekend and the ECMWF EFI has a good signal for those above normal temperatures across Southeastern Arizona through the start of the new week.
West-southwest winds are increasing over the higher elevations and could peak between 20-30 mph over the higher elevations of the Finger Lakes over the next several hours. 300 PM Update: A warm front moves through overnight, bringing warmer conditions to finish out the work week. Skies will be clear tonight and with westerly flow advecting in warmer air, temperatures will fall to around freezing, though portions of the Catskills will be in the mid 20s. High pressure will keep the weather quiet tomorrow with temps maxing out in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Areas of dense freezing fog in valleys of northern NV this evening and overnight will reduce visibilities, and may result is slick surfaces especially on bridges and overpasses.
637 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 High pressure remains in control for one more day before a pattern change is expected for the weekend.
343 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 - Clouds Friday will limit warming slightly, but highs will still be in the 40s which is 15 to 20 degrees warmer than average for this time of year.
521 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 (Through tonight ) Cloudiness will be on the increase overnight as a closed upper low approaches from the west. Showers will begin to spread into the northwest part of our forecast area near or shortly after midnight, possibly reaching the Highway 69 corridor by morning. (Tomorrow through Thursday) The closed upper low will move northeast into Kansas by late Friday, with a band of showers to its south shifting east across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the day. The trend towards a more northern and faster track to the upper low will mean a quicker end to the precipitation across our area as we get dry slotted later Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be cooler with the rain Friday, but will rebound quickly over the weekend as sunshine returns.
There is a 20-40% chance for freezing drizzle after 3am tonight/early Friday morning through Friday afternoon. WV imagery shows a plume of deep moisture within SW flow across the central Plains moving northward, and is shown by guidance to continue to overspread our region tonight, while a frontal zone develops near the Highway 2 corridor by Friday morning.
500 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 - Warmer than normal temperatures are expected for much of the forecast period.
242 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2023 242 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2023 - Cold front passage tonight into Friday brings breezy northwesterly winds and slightly cooler temperatures. Current surface analysis shows trough located across far eastern portions of MT and WY, with low pressure across far northeast MT and a cold front extending west across northern MT. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough across much of the western US, with main low located over northern NM. Some mid and high clouds are streaming northward across the region ahead of the trough, with low clouds over south central SD.
Satellite imagery is showing the low clouds that have been over much of the area have mainly dissipated west of I-25. Drier air will move in overnight with most of the low clouds (east of I-25) and haze/fog gone by sunrise. Highs on Friday will reach the low 50s across much of the plains. A large upper level ridge of high pressure building over the Rocky Mountain Region will bring dry, warmer and uneventful weather to North Central and Northeastern Colorado over the next several days.
Very strong and anomalously high pressure (+1040mb) over the Ohio Valley will slowly drift eastward through the short term. Subsidence aloft associated with the high pressure will keep skies mostly clear and winds light. Low level thicknesses are slightly higher for tomorrow so expect max temps to be 2-3 degrees warmer.
710 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 High pressure will hold over the region through Friday.
We continue to sit under high pressure leading to clear skies and light winds across the region. Expect another round of frost just before sunrise as many places dip into the low 30's or upper 20's. Discussion: High pressure continues to dominate and control the weather over the East Tennessee Valley for the short-term period. Favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow temperatures to fall sharply tonight, with lows below freezing for most. Similar to this afternoon, weak flow aloft and light surface winds centered under high pressure will limit fire weather concerns.
Variable mid-level clouds but little or no pcpn tonight as a weak warm front aloft passes through.
Water vapor/RAP & evening synoptic upper air analysis indicate mid-level ridge axis building eastward over the Gulf Coast while upper cold core low is moving into the OK/TX Panhandle.
1239 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2023 High pressure remains in control for one more day before a pattern change is expected for the weekend.
There is a 20-40% chance for freezing drizzle after 3am tonight/early Friday morning through Friday afternoon. Temps in west central and north central well above freezing and mostly in the low 40s. Uncertain now about if any drizzle or freezing drizzle develops back west into Grand Forks area by morning. Some signs continue from models of the weak cold front dropping south to GFK area mid morning and this is when better chance for any light precip will be. WV imagery shows a plume of deep moisture within SW flow across the central Plains moving northward, and is shown by guidance to continue to overspread our region tonight, while a frontal zone develops near the Highway 2 corridor by Friday morning.
We are expecting a low pressure to form in the Gulf of Mexico and head towards Florida.
1050 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 - Warmer than normal temperatures are expected for much of the forecast period.
1027 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2023 242 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2023 - Cold front passage tonight into Friday brings breezy northwesterly winds and slightly cooler temperatures. Current surface analysis shows trough located across far eastern portions of MT and WY, with low pressure across far northeast MT and a cold front extending west across northern MT. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough across much of the western US, with main low located over northern NM. Some mid and high clouds are streaming northward across the region ahead of the trough, with low clouds over south central SD.
(Today) High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will be the main influence on the local weather today.