Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
628 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 Aviation A mostly dry and mild week is underway as a split upper level jet over the central CONUS with ridging over the Midwest today keeps seasonably warm air in place. Temperatures may dip below freezing tonight in the typically cooler spots away from Lake Michigan.
Many observations are showing temperatures in the low 20s, with a couple sites having at least briefly dropped just under 20. Simultaneously, a thermal ridge presently centered over the High Plains will also slide eastward and center over the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Highs will range from the mid 40s over far northeastern North Dakota to the low 60s over the southwest. Tonight will see lows drop into the low to mid 30s for most of the forecast area.
548 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Key Messages: - Temperatures Above Normal Through Midweek - Minor Fire Weather Concerns - Dry Most of the Week Discussion: Amplified H5 ridge pattern across the CONUS will continue to keep conditions warm and dry across the region for today, and through most of this week. Over the past few days, NBM guidance has been undershooting temperatures underneath this ridge.
A Pacific weather system will bring a chance of rain late in the week and into the weekend along with cooler temperatures.
Temperatures for Monday should be slightly cooler as low clouds dissipate during the morning hours but mid-level clouds persist. Upper level trough to the southwest should remain too far south for any chances of rain today.
Current temperatures are in the upper 70s with dewpoints reporting in the lower to mid 70s. Despite strong high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard promoting fresh breezes along Florida's east coast, our local marine observation platforms report moderate northeast to east breezes. Areas of low pressure will develop along the northern Gulf coast and southwestern Caribbean early this week. As the low in the Gulf approaches Florida south of the high along the Eastern Seaboard, breezes will freshen across the Florida Keys late Tuesday. As the low has yet to develop, the exact extent of this windy period continues to be uncertain.
The pattern is resulting in diffluent flow over the Lower Mississippi River Valley region.
As the high shifts south and the flow flattens tonight into Tuesday, high clouds will spread into the area.
High pressure advancing from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley will keep winds light and temperatures seasonable today and tonight. Surface RH will likely bottom out in the 25-35% range this afternoon with high temperatures in the lower and middle 60s.
425 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2023 The latest suite of GOES-16 satellite imagery indicates that the ridge axis that was overhead yesterday has pushed east of the Continental Divide as of early this morning. This is due to a strong trough currently dropping southward in the eastern Pacific just off the West Coast. Stuck in between the ridge to our east and the trough to our west, we have strengthening southwest flow over the Great Basin and Four Corners.
517 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer than normal and dry conditions expected this week.
Warmer than normal temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy winds prevail through midweek.
Low pressure digging south off the West Coast will eventually move across portions of CA and NV late this week with periods of mountain snow showers and valley rain showers.
Mild conditions with occasionally cloudiness is expected the first half of the week before an active weather pattern brings precipitation chances and cooler weather for the second half of the week.
920 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week, leading to dry and seasonably mild conditions. A weak cold front will swing through the CWA later this morning through early afternoon, causing the winds to shift to the northwest. Have gone on the low side of guidance with dewpoints. Mostly sunny skies will continue on Tuesday under the center of the transient high pressure system. It will be a few degrees cooler with highs in the middle 50s.
Initial dry northwesterly flow aloft will gain more upper level ridging characteristics as tonight into Tuesday progresses. Lows could potentially be lower, but upper level cloudiness streaming into mid state region undercutting above mentioned upper level ridging influences from our southwest associated with developing storm system over western Gulf of Mexico Region will prevent temperatures from dropping any lower. Highs on Tuesday will be slightly cooler than today because of additional cloud coverage, with highs ranging in the mid 60s, lower 60s Cumberland Plateau Region.
325 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer than normal and dry conditions expected this week.
Chances for rain will continue through the week as this low slowly moves east through central California. A frontal boundary is currently draped over Humboldt and Del Norte counties and to the southwest off the coast as an upper level trough continues to deepen and cut-off from the flow over the eastern Pacific. As the low becomes cut-off it will pull the front back east and north as a warm front this afternoon ending rain activity near the coast.
Mild and dry weather will continue, until a pattern change brings somewhat cooler and potentially wetter conditions toward the end of this week.
Highs this afternoon will range from the mid 50s in the southern half of our area, to the lower to mid 60s in the northern Big Country where some breaks in the cloud cover are anticipated.
542 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 (Today and tonight) Fairly tranquil weather is expected over the local area today and tonight as surface ridging remains in place. Skies will remain cloudy or mostly cloudy across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas closer to an upper low traversing across Texas to our south.
519 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Another dry, seasonable day is on the horizon as a high pressure remains over the Mid-South.
528 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 (Today) Near persistent conditions expected today with period of high clouds streaming across the region as the upper low currently over far west TX tracks eastward.
626 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week, leading to dry and seasonably mild conditions. A weak cold front will swing through the CWA later this morning through early afternoon, causing the winds to shift to the northwest. Have gone on the low side of guidance with dewpoints. Mostly sunny skies will continue on Tuesday under the center of the transient high pressure system. It will be a few degrees cooler with highs in the middle 50s.
Temperatures around the area are holding the mid 40s and low 50s, with some higher terrain locations in the Sierra seeing below freezing readings at this hour. Ensembles still favoring the Pacific low digging further south and well offshore Monday with a troughing pattern setting up in the northern portions of the country. There has been good model agreement with a slower progression of the system and becoming cutoff from the parent trough, which has led to drastically reduced rainfall totals over the course of the week. Ridging to our east is also helping slow the progression of the system, but will eventually break down Tuesday and allow the low to begin to move slow towards to east.
Rain chances will finally diminish Tuesday afternoon as the parent trough moves to the east of the area.
The wedge should diminish as high pressure across the Mid Mississippi River valley builds south and eastward through Tuesday. By late Tuesday, the models are progging a low pressure system to develop along the old GOMEX boundary. Isentropic lift north of the boundary should start to increase as the low develops on Tuesday. The lower clouds will continue to decrease through they day across most of the CWA. The lower clouds will linger the longest across the far southern CWA. Even after the lower clouds clear out, sct to occasionally bkn mid/upper clouds will continue through the overnight hours.
Some intensity as far as showers go is anticipated mid morning into the afternoon as the upper level short wave trough located across northeast Mexico pushes to the northeast into the Southern Plains.
Another dry, seasonable day is on the horizon as a high pressure remains over the Mid-South.
Sunny and dry conditions are expected today and Tuesday with high temps reaching the lower 60s areawide. Winds will quickly diminish with sunset this evening and become light and variable as an area of high pressure moves across the area this evening.
Clouds will linger for much of the day keeping temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Precipitation will taper off Monday night as the upper trough continues to move east. Mid level ridging will begin to build in behind the system on Tuesday allowing the thicker cloud cover to finally clear out.
Here, high pressure builds in from the northeast and provides a dry airmass to at least the northern half of the area through Tuesday. This low will slowly move northward over the next 36 hours. Depending on the cloud cover, temperatures could be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday.
507 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure will crest over the area this morning then exit into the Maritimes this afternoon. Weak low pressure will cross the region tonight, then exit across the Gulf of Maine Tuesday.
603 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week, leading to dry and seasonably mild conditions. A weak cold front will swing through the CWA later this morning through early afternoon, causing the winds to shift to the northwest. Have gone on the low side of guidance with dewpoints. Mostly sunny skies will continue on Tuesday under the center of the transient high pressure system. It will be a few degrees cooler with highs in the middle 50s.
345 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2023 Key messages: 1) Warm and dry, again, today 2) Breezy south winds on the plains may enhance fire danger for a few hours this afternoon Upper level ridge moves eastward through the Rockies today, with flow aloft becoming more w-sw tonight ahead of approaching West Coast upper trough.
Today, expect light winds as an upper trough slides east over the area, with more interesting weather remaining toward the base of this feature well to our south. Associated reduction in heights aloft should result in temperatures a touch cooler than yesterday, with highs mainly in the mid 60s. Additionally, subtle large scale descent in the wake of the exiting upper trough could allow some late arriving 850mb moisture to contribute to potential surface saturation as well.
Given the subsidence, clear skies, and light winds, temps overnight look to dip down into the lower 30s with a few inland low-lying locations seeing some upper 20s.
Fair weather low clouds are streaming in from the northeast following the mean steering flow, with cirrus clouds associated with a developing area of low pressure along the Gulf coast nudging in from the northwest. From synopsis, a high pressure system will continue to build over the Eastern Seaboard. This along with low pressures in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico will result in fresh northeasterly to easterly breezes for early this week. Breezes will then slacken later this week, as both the aforementioned high pressure and the Gulf of Mexico low pressure move eastward into the western Atlantic.
A second area of lighter radar echoes is evident further west in the southern Edwards Plateau, and is linked to DPVA along the eastern periphery of an upper low evident along the Texas-New Mexico border. This Afternoon & Tonight: Currently centered over the southern Edwards Plateau, light to moderate rainfall will gradually overspread Hill Country, the I-35 Corridor, and to a lesser extent the Coastal Plains as the upper low currently centered along the TX- NM border moves over South-Central Texas. Highs in the low 70s are thus possible outside of the higher terrain of Hill Country, where upper 60s can be expected.
High pressure builds in tomorrow with the middle of the week mild and dry. As surface temperatures fall into the mid and upper 30s, a subsidence inversion drops with upper level ridging building in tonight. Ridging builds in tomorrow though low level flow stays out of the NW. The 850 mb ridge axis lags behind the upper level ridge and does not swing through till closer to the late afternoon so that is likely when most of the low clouds will finally clear. Quiet conditions are expected during this period as high pressure remains in control.
1059 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 (Today and tonight) Fairly tranquil weather is expected over the local area today and tonight as surface ridging remains in place. Skies will remain cloudy or mostly cloudy across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas closer to an upper low traversing across Texas to our south.
High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today, but should remain below normal with most of the region warming into the low to mid 70s as ridging aloft builds overhead. Clearing skies and lighter winds should promote cooler low temperatures Tuesday night, with most areas falling into the low to mid 50s. Hazardous beach conditions will continue through at least Tuesday evening along the Lower Texas beaches due to increasing winds and wave heights.
341 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week, leading to dry and seasonably mild conditions. Cooler conditions arrive for the weekend. Temperatures are in the low to mid 60s area wide this afternoon despite a weak cold front moving through the area. The air mass is very dry likely limiting the ability for fog to develop, but can't rule out patchy fog across west-central Ohio beneath the high pressure and in the Ohio River and lower Scioto River basins. The center of the high pressure shifts to the east on Tuesday, allowing light and variable flow to eventually become easterly or southeasterly during the afternoon.
1113 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night) High pressure in the region continues to promote fair and dry conditions to begin the workweek on Monday. An area of low pressure will be fixated along the Louisiana coastline with a warm front protruding eastward from the low pressure center. Tuesday will provide a different story for portions of the CWA in relation to weather conditions as the low pressure center and associated warm front tucked along the Louisiana coast will track east-northeast across southern Louisiana during the day on Tuesday. However, rainfall totals in these areas with the greatest opportunity for rainfall will only measure between a trace amount to as much as a quarter of an inch of rain on the higher side.
1211 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer than normal and dry conditions expected this week.
302 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure remains in control across the region through the week maintaining dry weather and gradually moderating temperatures. Drier air works in through the day under the ridge, though there will likely be a deck of stratocumulus across our northern zones trapped under a building subsidence inversion in the typical cold advection northwesterly flow regime. 850 mb flow of 25-35 knots should support gusts of 25-30 mph especially in the morning hours in the higher terrain and near the coast. The high will move closer overhead Tuesday evening and result in efficient radiational cooling conditions with mostly clear skies and less wind.
Discussion: An upper level low is moving across Texas this afternoon with abundant moisture across the northern Gulf Coast. For tonight, high pressure to the north will keep conditions dry, although increasing cloud cover is expected. On Tuesday, upper troughing moves into the lower Mississippi River Valley while an upper ridge axis extends from the western Atlantic through the Southern Appalachians. Very dry air in the lower levels will settle into the region and will mix down to the surface during the afternoon hours.
1030 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2023 The latest suite of GOES-16 satellite imagery indicates that the ridge axis that was overhead yesterday has pushed east of the Continental Divide as of early this morning. This is due to a strong trough currently dropping southward in the eastern Pacific just off the West Coast. Stuck in between the ridge to our east and the trough to our west, we have strengthening southwest flow over the Great Basin and Four Corners.
(The rest of this afternoon ) Weak upper trough will continue to drift east across the SC CONUS tonight.
Tonight, temperatures could dip below freezing inland of the lake, especially our normal cool spots, as clear skies allow for radiational cooling. Ridging keeps temperatures seasonably warm Tuesday (normal highs are in the upper forties) with highs in the fifties continuing. Winds decrease into Tuesday with high pressure moving into the area, although gustier conditions to around 20 knots will be present near the lakeshore due to the influence of the marine boundary layer.
238 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Key Message: * Continued quiet, with mild daytime temps on Tuesday 1030 mb high pressure will move overhead by around midnight, resulting in favorable radiational cooling conditions amidst continued clear skies. Winds will turn around to south-southwesterly on Tuesday, so after the cool start to the day, looking at another sunny and unseasonably pleasant afternoon with highs in the lower 60s to locally mid 60s. This is a bit above guidance considering the low temp bias of late.
A few locations could reach the lower 60s in the southern Red River Valley. West wind 5 to 10 kts continue in E ND and NW/WC MN and with that temperatures overnight have stayed above freezing in most areas thru 08z.
1223 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 (The rest of today ) As high pressure prevails across the region, another sunny/mostly sunny day is on tap across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
High pressure over the Midwest will lead to light winds, clear skies, and cool temperatures tonight with lows in the 30s. We'll quickly rebound to the low/mid 60s for highs on Tuesday due to plenty of sun and increasing south winds (15 - 30 mph).
This has helped to keep temperatures cooler this afternoon. Within the southern Red River Valley, temperatures reach into the lower 60s with a few locations reaching the mid 60s closer to the SD border. A weak frontal boundary moves through by the evening hours tomorrow ushering in NW winds and cooler temperatures for tomorrow night.
Mild and dry weather will continue, until a pattern change brings somewhat cooler and potentially wetter conditions toward the end of this week. High clouds are beginning to stream into Arizona from California ahead of a trough of low pressure. This trough is set to become the California cutoff low that we have talked so much about.
1025 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2023 Key messages: 1) Warm and dry, again, today 2) Breezy south winds on the plains may enhance fire danger for a few hours this afternoon Upper level ridge moves eastward through the Rockies today, with flow aloft becoming more w-sw tonight ahead of approaching West Coast upper trough.
Upper level high pressure to the east puts central and eastern Idaho in a warm southwest to south air flow, which will be keeping high temperatures at 10 to 15 deg F above climatic normals for the time of year, and 5 to 15 deg F above for overnight lows. With afternoon temperatures getting above freezing each day for most populated areas, do not expect anything much in snow accumulation.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) Dreary conditions continue across SE Texas this afternoon as an upper level trough axis sweeps across the western half of the state, providing broad lift for light showers. Most of this rainfall will be focused along and south of the I-10 corridor, on the peripheral of a coastal trough where PWs range from 1. The tight pressure gradient from this coastal trough has also brought moderate to strong northeasterly winds along the coastline, ranging from 20- 30 MPH with occasional higher gusts. Rain chances and winds speeds decrease overnight as the aforementioned coastal trough drifts eastward into the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Rain chances taper off of Tuesday as the upper level trough axis pushes east of the state while PWs drop to under an inch.
Widespread clouds & rain, with some sfc winds, will keep lows some 5-10 degrees above normal in the low-mid 50s. Leaned towards raw consensus of lows some 5-10 degrees above normal in the low to mid 50s. Sfc pressure gradient will begin to tighten between deepening coastal low & high pressure to the north, so northeasterly winds will persist but be gustier into the aftn hours.
(Tonight) High cirrus will continue to increase over the area this evening and overnight streaming from low pressure along the Gulf Coast.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Upper level trough is continuing to slide from west to east with light to moderate rain pushing east and northeast across the region.
Issued the CFW for the period 20z today to 03z Tuesday to account for the high tidal cycles at both Aransas Pass and Port O'Connor. Rain chances will finally diminish Tuesday afternoon as the parent trough moves to the east of the area.
1242 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week, leading to dry and seasonably mild conditions. A weak cold front will swing through the CWA later this morning through early afternoon, causing the winds to shift to the northwest. Have gone on the low side of guidance with dewpoints. Mostly sunny skies will continue on Tuesday under the center of the transient high pressure system. It will be a few degrees cooler with highs in the middle 50s.
The 12z RAOB from OHX this morning clearly shows a very dry atmosphere especially in the lower levels. For today and tonight, ridging surface and aloft will build into the region with very dry air. The low afternoon relative humidity will increase the fire danger. However, given the surface ridging winds will be light.
235 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 (Issued 235 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023) Tonight through Tuesday night: Mostly clear skies will continue this evening under high pressure, with high level clouds moving in later tonight into Tuesday, especially across the northern half of the forecast area.
1126 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Another dry, seasonable day is on the horizon as a high pressure remains over the Mid-South.
By Tuesday morning, a trough will be positioned above the region, allowing for a mild influx of precipitation across our southern zones.
1214 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure builds in today and Tuesday, maintaining clear skies through the TAF period.
1139 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 Quiet and mild weather continues over the Ohio Valley today as high pressure builds over Missouri under an expanding upper ridge. High pressure advancing from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley will keep winds light and temperatures seasonable today and tonight. Surface RH will likely bottom out in the 25-35% range this afternoon with high temperatures in the lower and middle 60s.
The remainder of the forecast remains relatively dynamic--and will follow what happens with the low pressure system that has developed around 130W.
The front is across south FL with high pressure in place across the area.
130 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 A large ridge across the CONUS has a thermal ridge building in the Northern Plains today. At the surface there is a low pressure nudging into the state, squeezing winds between the low and the high leaving the eastern part of the state. This is also enhancing the mixing, pulling the warmer 850mb temperatures down. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 30s with the thermal ridge still overhead.
This low level moisture will likely help produce areas of low clouds and fog. The low level moisture will not go anywhere for Tuesday night, so would expect to see areas of low clouds and fog again. Highs on Tuesday should still get above average with readings in the mid 60's to the lower 70's despite the morning cloudiness.