Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Stagnant, split flow regime dominates across the CONUS while broad sfc ridging dominates across the Great Lakes and OH valley. A cold front has passed through KSBN as of this writing, with the front now bisecting the state and will likely clear KFWA within the next hour or two.
1136 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 The forecast remains on track this morning, with the cold front near I-70 at this point - seen by both the wind shift and pronounced dip in dew points and temperatures behind it. Bumgardner 09z/3am surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from Lake Superior southwestward to near Kansas City. High temperatures will range from the upper 30s far northwest around Galesburg and Lacon to the lower 50s south of I-70. After a cloudy start to the day, increasing amounts of sunshine will be observed during the day Wednesday with highs climbing into the lower to middle 40s.
319 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2023 A cold front will move through tonight, which will result in lake effect snow showers tonight and Wednesday. High pressure then builds into the region later this week and weekend, resulting in a more prolonged period of dry weather. Previous Discussion: A moisture starved cold front will move through the region tonight. Ahead of the front, southwesterly flow will bring in a slightly warmer airmass and break up the morning clouds. Highs should get to around 40 or into the low 40s today.
1130 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 (Today and tonight) Southwest flow aloft will develop across West Texas today in advance of a developing upper low over the Great Basin region. Despite the increase in cloud cover, temperatures will remain mild again today, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 60s. Given the increase in moisture and cloud cover, temperatures will be warmer than the past few nights, with overnight lows mainly in the mid and upper 40s.
High Pressure aloft will continue stable conditions across the forecast area today. Most of the guidance favors the Lower Treasure Valley breaking out after noon time today possible reaching Boise Metro by mid afternoon. Upslope winds in the valley have produced sprinkles this morning which should end by mid afternoon as the low exit the western U. High pressure aloft will bring stagnant conditions that are likely to persist through the upcoming weekend.
Dry and clear tonight and Wednesday with high pressure in control. A few degrees warmer Wednesday. The lowest temperatures will be across sheltered valleys of the northeast part of the forecast area. Wednesday, the upper troughing will continue over the northeastern U. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s a few degrees warmer than today.
1108 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 - High pressure will provide tranquil weather through the end of the week with near to slightly above normal temperatures. A quiet weather pattern is forecast to continue through the week as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Winds will shift to the north/northeast late this afternoon and tonight as a weak cold front passes through. As the week progresses, an upper level ridge will build into the Mississippi Valley as an upper low digs into the Southwest and slowly migrates east into the southern Plains by week's end.
(Issued 911 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023) Breezy northwest winds will slowly diminish through the day today, as high pressure expands across the region.
Thicker cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures a bit cooler tomorrow than today (especially west), with highs about 5 degrees lower than today in most locations.
450 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2023 Aviation Section Updated A series of upper-level ridges will move through the area through next Tuesday.
607 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 (Rest of Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon with high pressure in control of things. For this reason, low temperatures will run 5-7 degrees higher than last night as most locations will bottom out in the low to mid 30s.
656 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2023 High pressure will keep dry conditions and seasonable temperatures in the forecast into the weekend. There is low confidence in low cloud formation with a cold frontal passage, but given the meager cold advection in the dry low levels (reflected in the 00Z sounding), achieving saturation will be difficult, thus decided to not include in the forecast for now. A weak cold frontal boundary will cross the region this evening. Clearing skies Wednesday night should aid efficient radiational cooling, dipping overnight lows into the lower 20s and possibly upper teens in some locations.
659 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2023 Modest high pressure will maintain control through Wed. A dry cold frontal passage will occur Wed night followed by re- enforcing strong high pressure thru the end of the work week. Strong low pressure system may affect the area this weekend brining a good chance for rain accompanied with breezy to windy conditions. High pressure will remain in control of area weather through the period, resulting in mostly clear skies. Cold advection basically for the entire period as high pressure builds in behind our rain-free front Wed.
938 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2023 A weak cold front will push southeast across the region tonight, then a slow moving area of high pressure will build into the Mid Atlantic region late this week.
255 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2023 A series of upper-level ridges will move through the area through next Tuesday.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday Evening/ An upper low currently centered over Las Vegas will drop slowly southeast through Arizona over the next 36 hours. Southwest flow aloft ahead of the low has ushered in a large swath of cirrus, but backing winds at the surface has thus far kept the low levels dry. A zone of mid level moisture will eventually work its way in from the west as the low edges closer to the region, leading to increasing clouds and perhaps a few light rain showers west of I-35 on Wednesday.
Expect lows to bottom out in the low to mid 30s by tomorrow morning. A weak cold front was analyzed from New York State back through the Ohio Valley and into southeast Missouri. This front is expected to wash out through tomorrow morning as heights build across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This high will remain over the region for the next couple of days leading to above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
912 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2023 Modest high pressure will maintain control through Wed. A dry cold frontal passage will occur Wed night followed by re- enforcing strong high pressure thru the end of the work week. Strong low pressure system may affect the area this weekend brining a good chance for rain accompanied with breezy to windy conditions. VWP at KLTX illustrates these active winds in the lower 1k to 3k ft and also from the prototype KLTX VWP, with active winds just above the sfc thru 1k ft. High pressure will remain in control of area weather through the period, resulting in mostly clear skies. Cold advection basically for the entire period as high pressure builds in behind our rain-free front Wed.
Even with these clouds, we will see afternoon highs above average for mid December in the low to mid 60s. The main impact will be with the lows tonight, also forecast to on the mild side (mainly in the 40s). This will keep the rain chances mainly across our western counties as the next upper level low travels across the region. While some of the high-res guidance show light precip farther east into North Texas, forecast soundings show a much drier airmass in the lower levels and should keep most of it from reaching the ground.
925 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2023 A cold front sweeps eastward across the area late this afternoon through evening. Behind the front, high pressure builds into the region through the rest of this week and into the weekend. Air mass seems too dry to sustain any snow chance as clouds struggling to fill in behind the main cold front. A cold front moves southeast across this evening, bringing temperatures back down to below average with lows in the mid to upper 20s tonight. Otherwise, strong high pressure of around 1040mb builds in from the west, becoming centered over the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night.
646 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2023 Dry high pressure will dominate through late this week with below average temps each day. Moisture returns over the weekend as a coastal low pressure system will likely develop. High pressure remains over the forecast area today with cooler conditions continuing through day along with generally light northeast winds.
Overnight temperatures will be cooler due to a lack of cloud cover, unlike last night where cloud cover was more prevalent. This could keep afternoon temperatures in check, meaning it could end up cooler compared to today.
A low pressure system will bring breezy northerly winds and more seasonal temperature to the region tomorrow.
An upper level trough currently dipping southward across the Great Basin is also beginning to result in some increasing north to east winds as well. Given the trajectory of the trough, winds look to remain lighter over the central Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys tonight. Moving into the middle of the week, the aforementioned trough is expected to continue digging in across the Desert Southwest, lessening the impacts for interior NorCal. In its place, upper level ridging looks to build in through the end of the week.
621 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2023 Upslope snow showers return tonight through Wednesday night before high pressure brings warmer temperatures for the end of the week.
140 PM PST Tue Dec 12 2023 Sub-freezing temperatures will continue to effect the rural areas of the San Joaquin Valley tonight, with low temperatures dropping as low as 28 degrees.
636 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2023 A weak cold front will push southeast across the region tonight, then a slow moving area of high pressure will build into the Mid Atlantic region late this week.
849 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2023 Dry high pressure will dominate through late this week with below average temps each day. Moisture returns over the weekend as a coastal low pressure system will likely develop. High pressure will settle overhead tonight with some mainly thin cirrus streaming aloft on southwest flow. Temperatures so far this evening are already in the mid to upper 30s while dewpoints are in the low to mid 30s.
Stagnant, split flow regime dominates across the CONUS while broad sfc ridging dominates across the Great Lakes and OH valley. VFR conditions will continue through the remainder of the forecast, outside of operationally insignificant high clouds streaming in from the west through zonal flow aloft ahead of ridging that is building into the central CONUS.
706 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2023 A cold front sweeps eastward across the area late this afternoon through evening. Behind the front, high pressure builds into the region through the rest of this week and into the weekend. A cold front moves southeast across this evening, bringing temperatures back down to below average with lows in the mid to upper 20s tonight. Otherwise, strong high pressure of around 1040mb builds in from the west, becoming centered over the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night.
High pressure with building valley inversions is forecast for the remainder of the week and upcoming weekend.
Temperatures across the islands are in the low 70s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid 60s. The forecast through the remainder of the week has been fairly well forecast, as deep ridging is centered over the mid-Atlantic states (1030 mb plus), and covering most of the eastern seaboard. There is little upper level support to dissolve the blocking pattern and move the ridge off the eastern seaboard over the next few days. The pressure gradient between this ridge and relatively lower pressure in the Caribbean (approximately 15 mb difference currently) is resulting in the Small Craft Advisory plus winds seen over the Florida Straits.
Period of modest height falls emanating from a closed mid level low rotating across northern Ontario directing a cold front across southeast Michigan this afternoon. Given the higher likelihood for a mostly clear sky, this will support lows well into the 20s Wed morning.
410 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 - High pressure remains in control through the end of the week with slightly above normal temperatures.
223 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2023 A series of upper-level ridges will move through the area through next Tuesday.
501 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Key Message: * Dry and seasonable conditions High pressure will continue to be the dominant weather feature through Wednesday night (and beyond) which will promote dry and seasonable conditions. While this cloud cover will aid in limiting radiational cooling, the continued cold advection should still allow temperatures to dip into the low to mid-20s tonight before rebounding back into the upper 30s Wednesday afternoon.
This and the brief break in cloud cover around and after midnight mentioned should allow temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 30s in most locations by daybreak on Wednesday. We might have to watch for patchy freezing fog overnight, but confidence is low due to thicker highs cloud expected Wednesday morning.
The forecast overnight looks on track with seasonably cool temperatures expected Wednesday morning, bottoming out 10-15 degrees warmer than they were this morning. The main forecast concern remains the low that is forecast to develop over the Gulf late this week and lift north through Florida during the weekend. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the north of Florida and a developing area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea is creating breezy northeast winds, with Small Craft Advisory conditions developing this evening.
612 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Quasi-zonal flow will be in place aloft through the short term period as ridging builds over the Plains upstream of troughing over the northeast CONUS. Weak southern stream troughing over the southern Gulf will result in occasional cirrus at times emanating from convection near the Yucatan and from a subtropical jet nosing into southern Texas.
238 PM PST Tue Dec 12 2023 Stratus and fog will be a persistent feature in the forecast with high pressure over the region.
Oh the complexity of forecasting fog and low clouds, or lack thereof during high pressure days in the Northern Rockies! The last 24 hours have been very interesting. Freezing rain or plain rain was found elsewhere across western Montana. If you speed up the satellite loop this afternoon, you can visualize the smaller scale and chaotic wind currents that are moving the lower clouds around. Grangeville had light fog with the bottom of the low clouds sitting only 200 feet above the ground as of 12 pm PST. With the moisture stuck in the valleys tonight, there is a 50 to 60 percent chance for dense freezing fog to develop. There is a 15 percent probability that freezing drizzle could occur within the fog.
353 PM PST Tue Dec 12 2023 Stratus and fog will be a persistent feature in the forecast with high pressure over the region.
Some models are indicating that the lower elevations in the river valleys will start to gather some low clouds overnight which may drop down to some scattered fog, but that confidence is low. With light winds in the Milk and Missouri river valleys, temps will be cooler than surrounding areas where a light SW wind will keep temps a bit higher, especially in the SW zones and up around Fort Peck Lake. TFJ Upper ridge moves through the area on Wednesday with warmer temperatures which will be in the 40s in most areas.
702 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2023 A cold front will move through tonight, which will result in lake effect snow showers tonight and Wednesday. High pressure then builds into the region later this week and weekend, resulting in a more prolonged period of dry weather. 355 PM Update: A moisture-starved cold front will move through the area tonight, which will bring some light rain and snow showers to parts of Central NY (mainly the Finger Lakes Region).
Upper level high pressure will continue a stable air mass over our CWA the next several days.
Other river valleys will begin to be socked in with fog (including spots along I-94 from Miles City through the Hysham Hills) later this morning, and along the higher hills at and northwest of Miles city.
Despite some thin high clouds streaming across the area, a few locations were running a bit cooler than hourly forecast values. Dry and clear tonight and Wednesday with high pressure in control. A few degrees warmer Wednesday. The lowest temperatures will be across sheltered valleys of the northeast part of the forecast area. Wednesday, the upper troughing will continue over the northeastern U. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s a few degrees warmer than today.
234 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 - High pressure will keep dry weather over the Quad State through the remainder of the workweek, with only a chance of showers returning this weekend. Through the remainder of the workweek, high pressure will slowly drift across the Midwest.
1254 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2023 Modest high pressure will maintain control through Wednesday. A dry cold frontal passage will occur Wednesday night followed by re-enforcing strong high pressure through the end of the work week. Strong low pressure system may affect the area this weekend, bringing a good chance for rain accompanied with breezy to windy conditions. High pressure will remain in control of area weather through the period, resulting in mostly clear skies. Cold advection basically for the entire period as high pressure builds in behind our rain-free front Wed.
Continue to look for some off/on cirrus to move across C AL with lows from the upper 20s to the lower 30s expected. 08 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Wednesday) Quasi-zonal flow will be in place aloft through the short term period as ridging builds over the Plains upstream of troughing over the northeast CONUS. Weak southern stream troughing over the southern Gulf will result in occasional cirrus at times emanating from convection near the Yucatan and from a subtropical jet nosing into southern Texas.
1255 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2023 A cold front sweeps eastward across the area late this afternoon through evening. Behind the front, high pressure builds into the region through the rest of this week and into the weekend. A cold front moves southeast across this evening, bringing temperatures back down to below average with lows in the mid to upper 20s tonight. Otherwise, strong high pressure of around 1040mb builds in from the west, becoming centered over the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night.
Large upper level low centered over/near James Bay this morning, with the positive tilted trough axis extension swinging through the Central Great Lakes today. With the mid clouds exiting, coupled with the dry airmass, low temperatures in the lower 20s seems appropriate tonight, but increasing warm advection/pressure gradient likely prevents temps from cratering much more. The end of the work week will feature the upper level ridge over Western Canada folding over and building east of the Mississippi River.
303 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2023 Dry high pressure will remain in place through late week with below normal temperatures expected each day. High pressure will be moving toward the central Atlantic States from the western Great Lakes today and be centered north of the area tonight. This will yield overnight lows ranging from the low 30s north to the upper 30s in the SE Midlands and southern CSRA.
251 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 - Mild temperatures today/Thu, but cooler over the snow pack - Fog potential is always there with warm daytime temperatures and melting snow.
A noticeable temperature spread is in place with northern locations in the upper 50s to low 60s and coastal sites from Cape Canaveral southward in the low 70s. Temperatures were freshened in this update to account for locally warmer temperatures along the coast.
1115 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2023 Aviation Section Updated A series of upper-level ridges will move through the area through next Tuesday.
1224 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2023 A cold front will move through tonight, which will result in lake effect snow showers tonight and Wednesday. High pressure then builds into the region later this week and weekend, resulting in a more prolonged period of dry weather. 355 PM Update: A moisture-starved cold front will move through the area tonight, which will bring some light rain and snow showers to parts of Central NY (mainly the Finger Lakes Region).
That only uncertainty in the cooler temperatures will be some passing mid level cloud cover overnight may help limit the spread of the coldest temperatures during the overnight period. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the lower to middle 30s.
751 PM PST Tue Dec 12 2023 Stratus and fog will be a persistent feature in the forecast with high pressure over the region.
Will continue with a similar max temp forecast today to what was observed yesterday which is just a touch warmer than the NBM max temps for most locations.
810 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2023 A series of upper-level ridges will move through the area through next Tuesday.
359 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2023 A large area of high pressure will remain in control over the region for the rest of the week.
319 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2023 A cold front will cross the region this morning.
1248 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2023 A weak cold front will push southeast across the region overnight. A large area of high pressure over the Midwest will build slowly east toward the Central Appalachians by the week's end, supplying a string of fair and dry weather.
(Today) Dry weather will continue today as high pressure remains anchored just to our north. Will see a steady flow of high clouds streaming in along an upper ridge located to our southwest while winds near the sfc remain light and northeasterly.
1029 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2023 Upslope snow showers return tonight through Wednesday night before high pressure brings warmer temperatures for the end of the week.
20 inches (or about the lowest 10-20th percentile) will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 20s tonight. Stagnant, split flow regime dominates across the CONUS while broad sfc ridging dominates across the Great Lakes and OH valley. VFR conditions will continue through the remainder of the forecast, outside of operationally insignificant high clouds streaming in from the west through zonal flow aloft ahead of ridging that is building into the central CONUS.
958 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Key Message: * Dry and seasonable conditions High pressure will continue to be the dominant weather feature through Wednesday night (and beyond) which will promote dry and seasonable conditions. While this cloud cover will aid in limiting radiational cooling, the continued cold advection should still allow temperatures to dip into the low to mid-20s tonight before rebounding back into the upper 30s Wednesday afternoon.
1028 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2023 A weak cold front will push southeast across the region overnight. A large area of high pressure over the Midwest will build slowly east toward the Central Appalachians by the week's end, supplying a string of fair and dry weather.
Upper level ridging has start to build in through the upper Rockies form the west as increasing convergence continues to develop and expand eastward. With upper level ridging in place and weak flow aloft, expect dry conditions and mainly clear skies for Wednesday and through the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. A series of upper level lows will push down south out of the Gulf of Alaska by week's end and over the weekend with the later half of seeing one push near the northern Californian coast.
236 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Key Messages: * None High pressure over the region this morning will gradually move east over the next 36 hours allowing southerly winds to develop and milder air to spread into the area.
121 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2023 A weak cold front will push southeast across the region overnight. A large area of high pressure over the Midwest will build slowly east toward the Central Appalachians by the week's end, supplying a string of fair and dry weather.
335 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2023 Key Points: * A weakening cold front will pass through the area early this morning but will bring no weather impacts.