Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
920 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 (Issued 920 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023) A large sfc and upper level high pressure area will become established over the Great Lakes region and srn WI for the Memorial Day Weekend. Gehring (Issued 254 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023) Tonight through Friday night: High pressure has settled into the Great Lakes region this afternoon, resulting in clear skies and light easterly to northeasterly winds across southern Wisconsin. Very low winds and clear skies will lend to rapid cooling overnight tonight, with low temperatures in the lower 40s to upper 30s expected. Friday into Friday night, light easterly to southeasterly winds will affect the area as the high continues to dominate. High temperatures will in the low to mid-70s away from the lakeshore, with lows in the mid-40s.
614 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 (This evening through Friday Night) A very typical late May kind of day continues this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 80s under a field of fair weather cumulus dotting the sky. Beyond that, expect skies to become mostly clear overnight with light E/NE winds as low temperatures settle back into the lower to mid 60s by tomorrow morning. On Friday, a weak cold front will back door its way into the area with little fanfare due to the lack of moisture in place ahead of it.
750 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Aviation Latest visible loop shows clear skies over the state courtesy of high pressure that is moving little. The high will move a little southeast Friday and Friday night which will allow temperatures to moderate a bit. Highs Friday around 70 and lows Friday night in the lower 40s.
628 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 (This evening through Friday) Very little pattern change expected the next 24 hours, with an upper level ridge remaining in place across West Texas and an upper trough out west. This pattern will support additional thunderstorm development over the higher terrain to our west and northwest this evening, with activity tracking southeast towards the Big Country and far western counties towards or just after daybreak Friday. Temperatures will be mild again tonight, with lows in the 60s, with highs on Friday in the low to mid 80s.
Western Washington finds itself between the departing low and the incoming ridge that will dominate the pattern tomorrow.
Should continue to remain dry overnight as upper-level ridging across Texas maintains northwest flow aloft. Otherwise, overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall into the low to mid 60s with light northeast winds 5 mph or less. /05/ (This evening through Friday Night) A very typical late May kind of day continues this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 80s under a field of fair weather cumulus dotting the sky. Beyond that, expect skies to become mostly clear overnight with light E/NE winds as low temperatures settle back into the lower to mid 60s by tomorrow morning. On Friday, a weak cold front will back door its way into the area with little fanfare due to the lack of moisture in place ahead of it.
Temperatures across the area will reach into the upper 90s to low 100s in spots this afternoon, as the troughing pattern west of the forecast area keeps mid-level heights in the 579-582 dam range. The latest guidance would suggest winds gusting 40-50 mph, with the higher gusts relegated to the higher terrain areas, particularly along the I-8 corridor.
502 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes region through the entire Memorial Day weekend.
After this morning's back-door FROPA, it has been a gorgeous day across the region with clear skycover and much drier and cooler air. Post-frontal air mass with cool NE flow is to thank for the nice conditions today, with KY Mesonet obs showings max temps in the low 70s across the Bluegrass and mid to upper 70s across south-central Kentucky. This will feature a Rex Block pattern with an upper level high over the Great Lakes and the upper low over the TN Valley.
1046 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 High pressure will prevail across the North Country into the upcoming holiday weekend.
This sudden rash of showers and storms coincides with an upper level trough that is slowly moving across south Florida and the Florida Keys.
In addition ridge of high pressure aloft will build stronger over the region heading into the weekend. Core surface anticyclone anchored near James Bay coupled with departing upper troughing over the Northeast has allowed for light to occasionally breezy northeast flow across the region today, and with flow off the cool waters of Lake Huron coupled with low single digits 925/850 hPa temps, high temps have been capped in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Abundant sunshine has helped to make it feel a few degrees warmer however. Building upper thicknesses will aid in gradually warming temps Friday and continuing through Memorial Day - rising through the 70s and eventually into the lower 80s by Memorial Day.
528 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023 The stubborn trough set up across the western US remains in place, keeping an active weather pattern across Wyoming. Otherwise, warmer than normal high temperatures will continue this afternoon. While the scattered convection will end after sunset this evening, less widespread showers will linger overnight as the trough nudges closer and the nose of a slight jet maxima pushes into southern Wyoming. The general troughiness continues through the weekend as low pressure remains to our west and a blocking high to the east. Looking ahead, not much change is expected through the weekend, with continued convection chances and warmer than normal temperatures.
A back door cold front will move through tomorrow cooling temperatures down some. A back door cold front will push through the region this evening. Slightly cooler and less humid weather is expected for Friday. An upper low will push toward the area this weekend resulting in near normal temperatures and small chances for rain mainly across the Tennessee River Valley and northeast Mississippi.
Once again, it's the activity currently on the high terrain of northeastern New Mexico that will survive the night. A blocking pattern has anchored an anomalous anticyclone over the Great Lakes that will maintain unseasonal easterly surface flow through North and Central Texas.
348 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023 A rex block will trap an upper low over the lower Mississippi valley. Moisture wraps around the low in a SW/NE corridor across northern Mississippi.
Latest 0Z GEFS and European model ensembles have the trough over our area to slide over to the Four Corners with a small ridge moving in its place.
(Today through Saturday) The axis of 500 mb high pressure will ease from the Texas Big Bend to central Texas during the period, placing the BRO CWFA in a dry northwest to southeast mid-level flow.
Combined with a bit of upper instability as the eastern upper low moves north along the East Coast and a small chance of rain is expected this afternoon east of I-65.
(Today and tonight) The "dirty" ridge remains over eastern New Mexico and west Texas this morning. Highs will continue to be near or just slightly below normal, getting into the low to mid 80s at most locations.
1227 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Upper ridge centered over Mexico extending northward across NM and TX to CO with a separate center over MN while out west a low over WA with a trough extending down across NV and CA. High temperatures expected to be a couple degrees cooler Friday in the low to mid 80s with a few 90s in Reeves and Culberson and along the Rio Grande.
After this morning's back-door FROPA, it has been a gorgeous day across the region with clear skycover and much drier and cooler air. Post-frontal air mass with cool NE flow is to thank for the nice conditions today, with KY Mesonet obs showings max temps in the low 70s across the Bluegrass and mid to upper 70s across south-central Kentucky. This will feature a Rex Block pattern with an upper level high over the Great Lakes and the upper low over the TN Valley. Friday Night - Saturday Despite an upper low overhead, we'll have below normal precipitable water amounts, little to no instability, and surface influence from high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to New England.
(Today through Saturday Night ) A weak cold front will drop SW through the state through this afternoon. with some drier air filtering into the state from the NE as an upper trough deepens as it moves south into NERN AR. with maybe a deg or two cooler than Thu. Lows will drop into the low 50s to around 60. with maybe some increased clouds near this upper low. Lows Sat night will be in the low 50s to low 60s.
1151 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 (This evening through Friday night) Expansive high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region remains in control of the eastern CONUS weather pattern.
Instability out ahead of that scenario is difficult to diagnose at this point with cloud cover anticipated to keep max temperatures in the low 70s across the southwest Texas Panhandle.
326 AM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes region through the Memorial Day weekend.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated a large area of high pressure centered over northern sections of the Great Lakes. Weak low pressure was situated over western ND. This high pressure was bringing very dry air into northeast WI with current relative humidity values ranging from 15 to 30 percent away from Lake MI. This high pressure is expected to stretch from the western Great Lakes to New England over the next 24 hours. Anticipate min temperatures to fall into the lower 30s in the colder locations of northern WI, upper 30s to around 40 degrees across east-central WI. Look for readings to range from the lower to middle 60s along Lake MI, lower to middle 70s inland.
(Today and tonight) A mid-level ridge will persist from southwest Texas into the western Great Lakes through sunrise Saturday.
(Today) Another seasonable day is in store across the region this afternoon as surface ridging slowly builds into the region throughout the day.
Broad surface ridging influences across eastern Great Lakes will usher in a slightly cooler airmass to our area today. As afternoon hours progress, look for a closed upper level low to develop across western KY. The center of that upper level closed low will move just west and then south of mid state region Friday night into Saturday. Broad lower pressure influences across our area associated with this upper level low circulation will help aid in isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development across mainly southern portions of mid state region tonight and most locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region on Saturday.
(Friday through Saturday) Northwesterly flow aloft will persist as the forecast area will remain sandwiched between an upper ridge axis over West Texas and a developing, broad cutoff trough over the Southeast CONUS. At the surface, a large ridge centered over the Great Lakes will keep northeasterly surface winds in place. These winds will continue to provide a stream of relatively drier and cooler air, which will continue to keep our temperatures and humidity levels in check as we remain cut off from the advection of warn and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. A vort max near the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers in the develop Southeast CONUS trough may provide some large scale forcing to help in convective initiation. While I want to compare this pattern to the typical summertime ridge pattern, that's not entirely accurate just yet.
200 AM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure will continue to wedge against the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge today. By Friday night into Saturday, low pressure will arrive to provide cloudy and cool conditions with occasional rain for the remainder of the Memorial Day weekend.
We are relatively dry at present across C AL, However, between perturbations around the upper low and a decaying surface boundary, we could see just enough forcing for a few showers and thunderstorms in the far northern counties starting late this afternoon into portions of tonight and Saturday.
A flood advisory has been issued for the Jefferson River from north of Twin Bridges to near Three Forks.
Quiet weather continues this period with prolonged ridging across the Central U.
251 AM EDT Fri May 26 2023 * Seasonable temperatures today * Increased fire risk with dry conditions and some wind gusts continues Strong high pressure centered over the Great Lakes continues to bring dry air and deep subsidence across the region early this morning courtesy of northeast flow. The quiet and dry weather pattern of late will continue for today and tonight as the aforementioned high pressure remains anchored over the Great Lakes. This will keep a persistent dry and cooler northeast wind across the region through tonight. a slug of moisture will push west off the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon into the Tennessee valley in the vicinity of a weak upper low.
The combination of cooler temps aloft beneath the low and moisture pooling just ahead of it could support some isolated showers or thunderstorms north of Interstate 20 during the afternoon. The longwave trough encompassing much of the Southeast United States will continue to strengthen through the end of the work week, with a mid/upper level low finally developing. This, as high pressure at the surface remains in place across the region. Highs will be a touch warmer as they top out in the mid and upper 80s.
- Cooler temperatures and pleasant conditions expected for tomorrow and Saturday.
The current weak upper low over the FL panhandle will move little over the weekend while the base of the upper trough extending from the NE over to Illinois will begin to close off into a new upper low and sink toward the upper low that will find itself over GA/AL. This will simply reinforce the upper low as they merge over the weekend.
A low pressure system will begin develop off the E/NE FL coast, east of the central Florida coastal Atlantic waters, along the residual frontal boundary.
344 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023 Showers and isolated storms continue to fester over the High Plains early this morning. A persistent mid/upper ridge over the Upper Mississippi Valley area will help steer drier air into the Central Plains today which should keep much of the shower and storm activity confined to central and western Kansas.
303 AM EDT Fri May 26 2023 A warming trend continues today into the upcoming holiday weekend as high pressure at all levels builds across the region.
(Today through Saturday) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level ridge attempting to build in from the west as a trough peels across the southeast. Ridging will shift over the area through the day. Once again, convection will be possible across the higher terrain of Mexico. More of the same is expected on Saturday as ridging remains in control for one more day.
This will continue to favor lower than normal dewpoints/moisture content while broad upper ridging aloft continues.
A southern stream mid through upper level trough is aligned across our area and reaches southward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The trough/low has setup well above normal precipitable water and modestly lower heights. Forecast - Over the next couple of days the southwestern periphery of a mid latitude trough further north over the northeastern United States will pinch off and become centered over the lower Mississippi Valley. This will consolidate the proximate trough further north. Meanwhile, the main trough axis of this trough will swing out of our area. However, heading towards mid week, a separate weak southern stream upper trough is expected to work its way into the Gulf of Mexico.
Discussion: Upper-level troughing extending southwestward from the Canadian Maritimes is underway, which will eventually separate and become a closed low overhead by tonight. Overnight and into tomorrow, winds will start to increase over the higher elevations with the approach of a coastal low.
High pressure aloft will build across the Great Lakes, while a pair of upper lows develop over the southeast, including one compact low that will pass right over KPAH this afternoon.
954 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023 The stubborn trough set up across the western US remains in place, keeping an active weather pattern across Wyoming. Otherwise, warmer than normal high temperatures will continue this afternoon. While the scattered convection will end after sunset this evening, less widespread showers will linger overnight as the trough nudges closer and the nose of a slight jet maxima pushes into southern Wyoming. The general troughiness continues through the weekend as low pressure remains to our west and a blocking high to the east. Looking ahead, not much change is expected through the weekend, with continued convection chances and warmer than normal temperatures.
1255 AM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure will prevail across the North Country into the upcoming holiday weekend.
High pressure and its associated low-pwat air mass building in from the Grt Lks will ensure clear skies, light wind and efficient radiational cooling the balance of the night. Earlier forecast of min temps in the low to mid 30s still appears on track across the N Mtns, where areas of frost are expected. Canadian high pressure will build southeast into PA today and Saturday, ensuring a continuation of fair weather. Despite nearly full sunshine, GEFS 2m temp anomalies suggest highs will fall a couple of degrees short of late May averages today, with highs ranging from the mid 60s over the highest ridges of the Alleghenies, to the low 70s in the valleys of central and southern PA. A moderating trend should begin Saturday, as the high slips off the Mid Atlantic coast and highs reach well into the 70s.
(Today through Saturday Night) Through the short term period, mid/upper level ridging looks to remain in place while slightly drier air (precipitable water values around one inch) tries to edge into the area from the northeast.
256 AM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure builds into the region today providing for fair weather but still somewhat cool high temperatures.
1231 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023 (This evening through Friday) Very little pattern change expected the next 24 hours, with an upper level ridge remaining in place across West Texas and an upper trough out west. This pattern will support additional thunderstorm development over the higher terrain to our west and northwest this evening, with activity tracking southeast towards the Big Country and far western counties towards or just after daybreak Friday. Temperatures will be mild again tonight, with lows in the 60s, with highs on Friday in the low to mid 80s.
Latest ensemble members continue to indicate a persistent trough pattern over the west for the next several days. This will allow for cool overnight lows over the high country, in the 30s to low 40s above 6000 feet.
Hudson Bay high pressure will remain over the Great Lakes, with continued dry conditions into the weekend. Highs will be in the lower to middle 70s today, and 75 to 80 on Saturday. Cooler readings in the 60s will be found near Lake Michigan. Not sure that the Freeze Warning will verify across far NE WI this morning, but think that temperatures in the lower to middle 30s will result in areas of frost over much of the headline area.
An amplified pattern remains in place across the CONUS, with a trough axis situated over the FL peninsula. Low level winds also gradually veer more easterly as weak surface ridging builds over GA and the Carolinas.
117 AM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes region through the entire Memorial Day weekend.
1259 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023 (Tonight through Friday) A cold front was moving southward over Central Alabama late this evening. PoPs will remain relegated across the north during the peak heating hours Friday afternoon as temperatures rise into the low to mid 80s.
(Tonight through Friday) A cold front was moving southward over Central Alabama late this evening. PoPs will remain relegated across the north during the peak heating hours Friday afternoon as temperatures rise into the low to mid 80s.
333 AM EDT Fri May 26 2023 Strong high pressure builds in through the first part of the weekend in continued dry conditions with a gradual warming trend. High pressure located near the Great Lakes region will stay in control of our weather pattern today through tomorrow. This high pressure system will keep the weather quiet and sunny along with pleasant temperatures. Temperatures on Saturday will be warmer, climbing into the middle and upper 70s.
(Today through Saturday) A weak upper level ridge axis will remain in place just to the west of the region today, placing the region in northwest flow aloft.
Upper trough remains in the Pacific NW today and Saturday.
322 AM EDT Fri May 26 2023 A warming trend continues today into the upcoming holiday weekend as high pressure at all levels builds across the region.
356 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023 Much like we've seen so far this week, our forecast area will continue to remain sandwiched in between high pressure at the sfc and aloft across Great Lakes and an elongated area of low pressure/frontal zone across the Northern High Plains and Rockies through most of this period. The upper level trough, that's been in place across the western CONUS this week, will begin to exert a bit more influence on our local pattern with time through this period as the aforementioned high pressure drifts slightly eastward. We start the period with an upper ridge centered over the Great Lakes.
(Through Friday) Upper-level troughing over the southeast US will close off into an upper-level low late Friday. Lows will be in the lower to middle 60s. As the low develops during the day Friday to our east, we will see some wrap-around showers and maybe a thunderstorm reach our Florida Big Bend and south central Georgia counties. The pressure gradient will tighten as the low lifts northward toward the Carolinas, resulting in breezy northeast winds that will drive some cooler air into our neck of the woods.
The split flow regime to the east of the area is keeping a ridge of high pressure in place over the Great Lakes region, with an upstream trough over the intermountain west. At the surface a ridge in place has caused a dry airmass, fed by dry easterly winds to remain in place over the area, which will keep relatively dry-feeling air in place for the next couple days. Temperatures will still climb into the upper 70s for the next couple days, and eventually get into the 80s for Memorial Day Weekend, but this dominant ridge of high pressure will keep the bulk of any precipitation well off to the west.
An upper level trough stationed over the Pacific Northwest will start to weaken today as another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across most of the forecast area.
A backdoor cold front will be sagging into northeast AR tonight, and into central Arkansas during the day tomorrow. The main effect will be drier and slightly cooler air.
On a side note, most of the deterministic models continue to show a Rex block setting up over the region with a cutoff upper low developing over far southern IL and the bootheel of Missouri today.
245 AM MDT Fri May 26 2023 A mid-level trough will slowly traverse across the region and continue the wet and unsettled weather pattern through Memorial weekend.
335 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023 (Issued 335 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023) Today through Saturday: Rex blocking pattern will linger over the region during this period, which will help strong high pressure to remain over the region as well. Highs should reach the middle 70s inland today and upper 70s on Saturday, with cooler readings near Lake Michigan.
108 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023 Moisture from the Gulf will continue to circulate northward on the backside of high pressure into the western High Plains through Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall could occur, with the highest probability of this occurring is across southwest NE.
630 AM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure builds into the region today providing for fair weather but still somewhat cool high temperatures.