Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
735 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 Current water vapor imagery/RAP analysis highlights a swath of dry air across the lower Midwest and portions of the Southeast and Mid- Atlantic states with high pressure centered over the Missouri Valley. Closer to home, a cold front is draped across northern Lake Superior and is progged to drop southward today. Meanwhile, temperatures will be much cooler than yesterday near the lakeshore with a northeasterly component to the wind.
Humid conditions will allow for heat indices to climb into the low to mid 90s across most of the area this afternoon.
A surface cold front will push east of the Cascades on Sunday, and the air mass will remain unstable ahead of it. Behind the front, we'll get a break Sunday night into Monday with no precipitation expected as a closed low sets up in northern Washington. It'll be cooler Sunday night with lows in the 40s west of the Cascades, probably a good night for opening windows. But, it'll be chilly again with lows near freezing in the usual areas of northern Klamath/Lake counties.
An inverted trough will stay to our southeast in GA and southeast AL, so expecting all shower activity to remain well to our southeast.
A lake breeze will keep readings a few degrees cooler near Lake Michigan.
633 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure building into the area today will be the dominate weather feature through mid-week bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
917 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure building into the area today will be the dominate weather feature through mid-week bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
920 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 13Z sfc analysis shows high pressure firmly in control of the weather for eastern Kentucky with mostly clear skies and light winds. Currently, readings are running in the low to mid 50s while dewpoints are generally in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
1042 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 A cold front and rain showers will cross the area today then stall just south of the area this evening.
High temperatures will be around 3 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Ensemble models show a trough along the Pacific Coast with a ridge building to the southeast of Arizona throughout the week. This pattern will bring breezy conditions this week especially with the min relative humidity values hovering in the lower teens and dropping to the single digits by the middle of the week.
Across the northern half of eastern Utah and western Colorado, drier air has snuck in and will remain in place through the day, keeping skies clear this afternoon and allowing temperatures to climb a few degrees warmer than the last several days. An area of low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest tonight, dragging a weak frontal feature through the Great Basin. This feature will help to drag some of the higher moisture northward from the Four Corners region through the day Monday.
622 AM CDT Sun May 21 2023 (Today through Monday) The surface cold front has pushed as far south as Troy. The humidity levels will be slightly less today than yesterday, but afternoon temperatures will still top out in the lower to middle 80s for most areas. At the same time, a weak upper low will develop to the west of Alabama. The front and cloud cover will produce cooler temperatures on Monday, especially over east Alabama.
739 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 An area of low pressure along a cold front will move southeast into The region Today. The boundary will move just to the south Tonight, as high pressure builds from the north.
545 AM CDT Sun May 21 2023 A warmer day in store across the area with warm air advection continuing over the region in a southerly low level flow. In a continuing warm air advection regime, it will be a milder night with lows in the lower to mid 50s. An upper level trough over the Rockies begins to shift to the east on Monday.
639 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 A cold front will settle southeast of the forecast area later today.
Current Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery shows valley fog across the higher terrain of eastern KY but some valley fog has been seen developing across parts of southern IN into SW Ohio. Upper ridge axis that is influencing the western two-thirds of the CONUS will slowly shift eastward during the day and gradually increase heights over southern IN and central KY. This will lead to warmer temperatures in the mid 70s for the afternoon. Benign weather is expected for the work week as an upper level ridge of high pressure maintains control over the region, which will allow for dry and warm weather.
1100 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 Latest surface analysis shows expansive 1023mb high pressure centered over MO/IL with current satellite revealing mostly clear skies across the region. Current Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery shows valley fog across the higher terrain of eastern KY but some valley fog has been seen developing across parts of southern IN into SW Ohio. Upper ridge axis that is influencing the western two-thirds of the CONUS will slowly shift eastward during the day and gradually increase heights over southern IN and central KY. This will lead to warmer temperatures in the mid 70s for the afternoon. Benign weather is expected for the work week as an upper level ridge of high pressure maintains control over the region, which will allow for dry and warm weather.
630 AM CDT Sun May 21 2023 (Sunday through Monday) Weak ridging aloft will quickly get replaced by the arrival of a weak upper trough that will open up as it moves across the Tx Hill Country today, into the heart of our region tonight, ejecting east of our region by Monday. While there will be weak upper forcing provided by the upper trough tonight and increasing mid to high level moisture, the lack of any return low level flow and moisture should preclude the need for any pop through the short term. Therefore, have stayed on the higher side of MOS temperature guidance today and on the warmer side of guidance for overnight low temperatures tonight. By Monday, we should lose the mid to high level cloud cover to our east during the day with the ejection of the week upper trough.
Building high pressure from the west will result in dry conditions, light northwesterly winds, and temperatures right around climatological norms. Confidence remains high that quiet, dry conditions will prevail this evening into Monday morning under high pressure. Overnight temperatures will remain slightly cooler than average under northerly flow aloft and clear conditions prompting radiational cooling. A weak cold front may interact with the lake breeze Monday afternoon and stir convection north of I-80.
851 AM MDT Sun May 21 2023 Morning Update: Only minor tweak I made was to lower the high temperatures by a degree or two on account of the smoke. -Enriquez MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with hot high pressure over the Desert Southwest. This formed up a ridge and stretched it north through Utah, western Montana. Northeast Montana lies on the downslope of the ridge under northwestern flow. To the west a large trough runs down the coastline of British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Today into Monday: Ridge axis will firm up and march across the Montana. Ridge should begin exiting to the east Monday afternoon allowing the upper atmosphere to begin to destabilize. However, the ridge should drag most of the smoke along with it out of the area.
Brisk northerly winds will develop today, accompanied by cooler high temperatures inland, and mix of sun and clouds.
512 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure to start the work week is reinforced by another high building in from the north midweek. The remainder of the day will be sunny and comfortable with temperatures reaching the lower 70s in the mountains and the mid-to-upper 70s in the lowlands by the afternoon. High pressure will remain in control into tonight with mainly clear skies, but some patchy dense fog may be possible again in a few sheltered river valleys.
High pressure is centered in west central Illinois early today, and that's providing another clear, quiet, cool night to the region. Tonight, with mostly clear skies, we'll drop again to the lower to mid 50s, as we see light wind from the west/southwest.
1039 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 A cold front will settle southeast of the forecast area later today.
With ISOLD-WDLY SCT convection developing along and out ahead of the ECSB, we expect the highest PoPs (50-60pct) late today/early evening across the interior (I-4 corridor) where strongest boundary collisions will occur.
238 AM PDT Sun May 21 2023 An incoming trough will lead to increased shower and thunderstorm coverage across the region this afternoon. This trough will break down the persistent high pressure over the western US and initiate a gradual cooling trend through the end of the work week. This low will introduce general troughiness over the western US through the upcoming week, which will lead to a gradual cooling trend through the end of the week.
921 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the upcoming week.
A thermal ridge displaced to the west should furnish highs in the 80s this afternoon, still a few degrees below normal for this time of year. This will be enough for another round of showers and thunderstorms, and similar to Sunday, primary target areas will be in the vicinity of the higher terrain.
536 AM MDT Sun May 21 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge across the western CONUS with ridge topping disturbance tracking southeast across the Dakotas. Upper ridge axis shifts into the Northern Plains on Monday as upper low/trof moves into the Pac NW. Large scale subsidence beneath the upper ridge will result in little cloud cover and no precip.
638 AM CDT Sun May 21 2023 Getting a sense of the upper level pattern, weak ridging exists over the Gulf of Mexico with subtle mid/upper troughing extending from the northern plains to the Four Corners region.
(Tonight) High pressure is entrenched across the Tennessee Valley northward into the Ohio Valley. Expect warmer low temperatures as thicker cloud cover develops earlier there than further north tonight.
355 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 19Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over the Ohio Valley and reaching into Kentucky from the north. Specifically, temperatures are generally running in the low 70s most places with dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s, amid mostly light northeast winds. They all depict heights steadying out over Kentucky between troughing retreating to the northeast and dirty ridging through the Plains.
(This evening through Monday Night) Weak upper ridging over the region will continue to break down this evening, as a weak upper trough and a weak disturbance moves across the area. Clouds will start to clear from west to east behind the trough on Monday, as it shifts into the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS. Afternoon temperatures will climb to near normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
1234 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 Quiet weather is in the forecast for today as drier air continues to settle across most of the southeast United States as the cold front continues to move further east across parts of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. This cloud cover combined with limited insolation should help limit afternoon temperatures into the low 80s across most of our forecast area. Skies will generally be mostly cloudy through the day, with highs mostly in the low to mid 80s. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will continue tonight with lows in the low to mid 60s.
123 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the upcoming week.
203 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure building into the area today will be the dominate weather feature through mid-week bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
Lee troughing sets up Monday afternoon around the TX/NM state line, stretching into the Big Bend. Bulk shear remains on the low side again tomorrow, but 20-30kts (which may be enhanced by outflow from other storms) may be enough to still support storm longevity and a few isolated severe storms. High temperatures tomorrow will be a bit warmer than today, topping out in the upper 80s for most with 90s along the river valleys.
This is the result of northwesterly flow aloft in place on the leading edge of a building ridge, currently centered over the Canadian Rockies. Moving into Monday, the upper level ridge axis looks to become more centered over western North Dakota, allowing for smoke aloft to continue filtering into the region throughout the day.
Persistent high cloudiness will keep temperatures falling too much, with lows expected to be around 5 degrees warmer than seen last night.
1235 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 A cold front and rain showers will cross the area today then stall just south of the area this evening.
105 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure building into the area today will be the dominate weather feature through mid-week bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
This should allow for overnight lows to dip into the low 60s.
A trough moving onshore today is causing thunderstorms across the region. The only ingredient missing for more severe thunderstorms is wind shear, 20-30 kts of wind shear is on the low to marginal side for severe thunderstorms. The upper level trough closes off into a closed low and lingers along the Canadian border and the Idaho panhandle on Monday. That sets up another day of thunderstorms, but it will be much cooler with better forcing east of the Continental Divide, so storms on Monday are expected to be rather typical and non-severe. The major limiting factor on Monday for storms will be more stable conditions due to much cooler temperatures.
255 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 A cold front will settle south of the area today. High pressure will extend into the area from the north and northeast through much of the work week. A cold front has made its way through much of the forecast area, and it is possibly still hung up along the southern border. High pressure will be centered over Quebec Monday morning, with a weak surface front over New York dissipating during the day. Overnight lows will be a couple degrees warmer than tonight, but still generally in the 50s.
1251 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 A warmer day in store across the area with warm air advection continuing over the region in a southerly low level flow. In a continuing warm air advection regime, it will be a milder night with lows in the lower to mid 50s. An upper level trough over the Rockies begins to shift to the east on Monday.
The first half of the week we'll slowly establish a trough near the west coast while a ridge builds from central Mexico through New Mexico and west Texas.
The highest rain chances will be across the eastern half of the area with likely rain chances. Highs on Monday will be in the mid and upper 80s with lows tonight in the low/mid 60s inland to low 70s along the coast.
With continued southerly flow and little change in the low level thermal profile, high temps should end up close to today's readings in the upper 70s-lower 80s. As far as the lower levels, the weak low level boundary near our western CWA should keep the more impactful near surface smoke west of the forecast area, though cannot rule out some minor haziness in our far west near the convergence axis.
208 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 A weak cold front moves through this afternoon with high pressure building in.
149 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure to start the work week.
For tonight models show a very weak, dampened mid to upper level trough squeezing across the Great Lakes. No tangible geostrophic or gradient flow with the feature which allows a surface convergence to thermal trough set up directly over Southeast Michigan. The thermal trough will modestly increase in strength on Monday with daytime heating.
(This evening through Monday) Weak upper level low pressure still spinning slowly as it moves slowly eastward across the Concho Valley. Otherwise, warmer on Monday with the sunshine in place allowing highs to climb into the mid and upper 80s.
1215 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure to start the work week.
Still, surface dew point depressions were averaging about 10 degrees and the low ceiling noted was around 9kft at Johnson. Another cool day is expected as temperatures climb into the low 70s by mid afternoon. An overall increase in cloud cover into Monday is shown in the HREF fields, and with potential earlier day wet grounds, and residual cloud cover the low 70s may be the limit for afternoon highs.
KBYX radar showed showers developed on a cloud line along the Lower Keys between 16z and 18z earlier this afternoon. Temperatures along the Island Chain were in the mid to upper 80s with the Big Pine Key RAWS station being the hot spot so far reaching 91 degrees with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. The first one is an area of high pressure over the Ohio River Valley, and the second is a low pressure system northeast of the Bahamas.
248 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 A cold front and rain showers will cross the area today then stall just south of the area this evening.
Warm temperatures continue for the interior valleys today and Monday with breezy westerly winds keeping coastal areas cooler.
Dewpoints are around the low to mid 50s with south southeast winds and temperatures in the mid 70s. Satellite imagery shows some initial storm development along the higher terrain of New Mexico with this wave. Late tonight, the low level jet will also pick up and help to increase the less than 20 knot effective shear to around 30 to 35 knots.
Cooler lows are also expected, especially across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country where lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. On Monday, we bounce back to near seasonable temperatures with highs generally in the mid 80s, warmer in the Rio Grande Plains.
Confidence isn't the greatest however as the extended 15Z RAP appears to have over initialized smoke and any southern trajectories across MO Going into Tue and Wed, central CONUS ridging will continue to expand leaving IA in very weak flow through the column with <=15kts of wind through 25,000ft at times. This will be followed by a backdoor cool front, with some depth, that is driven by the passage of a northern/eastern Great Lakes upper trough. The pattern may eventually start to break down later in the weekend as weak southwest flow short waves attempt to chip away at the upper ridge, possibly starting a return of moisture to some depth, especially to the west.
A quiet late Spring day is expected underneath the influence of broad ridging from the surface through the upper levels. Highs this afternoon should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, thought the increasing cloud cover will keep temps down somewhat, especially south of I-40 where more coverage is expected.
Hot temperatures continue over the forecast area the next few days as high pressure aloft prevails. High temperatures as much as 8-10 degrees above normal continue today and tomorrow as high pressure continues.
Temperatures this afternoon and tonight will be markedly warmer than the previous couple nights. Looking ahead, an upper ridge will generally remain in control across the Central Plains through the upcoming work week.
1134 AM CDT Sun May 21 2023 Getting a sense of the upper level pattern, weak ridging exists over the Gulf of Mexico with subtle mid/upper troughing extending from the northern plains to the Four Corners region.
300 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 An upper level ridge across the Northern Rockies continues to bring subtle northwest flow into the Northern Plains. Smoke will likely impact the temperature forecast as temperatures struggle to reach the lower 80s this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower to mid 80s across the state. As a low level thermal ridge extends up through eastern Montana. An upper level ridge is forecast to move across the Northern Plains the beginning half of this week bringing forth warmer temperatures. A ridging pattern will bring in a low level thermal ridge across the Northern and Central Plains.
1227 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 (Today through Monday) Isolated showers and thunderstorms are still possible today behind the weak cold front. While a mid level ridge is expected to persist over Deep South Texas for the short term forecast, there is a perturbation that will be to the north of us that could help some showers out west develop today. Behind this weak cold front may not give them too many opportunities to do so. Thanks, to the previously mentioned cloud cover high temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler over Deep South Texas today, looking at being in the 80s. Just a slight reprieve from the warmer temperatures.
Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows flat ridging over the Gulf of Mexico, with a weak midlevel low over TX and weak disturbances emanating from the low along the northern edge of the high. At the surface, a frontal boundary is positioned well off the coast, with north to northeast winds over the region transporting slightly drier and cooler low level air into the area. Temperatures as of 3 PM range from the middle 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, a pleasant change from the recent warm and humid conditions.
149 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 Current water vapor imagery/RAP analysis highlights a swath of dry air across the lower Midwest and portions of the Southeast and Mid- Atlantic states with high pressure centered over the Missouri Valley. Closer to home, a cold front is draped across northern Lake Superior and is progged to drop southward today. Meanwhile, temperatures will be much cooler than yesterday near the lakeshore with a northeasterly component to the wind.
Satellite imagery this morning showing mostly clear skies in advance of an upper low center off the WA coast. Areas of mid- level cloudiness over SE Oregon are a visual of the moisture aloft that will combine with afternoon heating and increasing lift ahead of the trough to fire off thunderstorms. Surface winds outside of storms: variable 15 kt or less, becoming W-NW late afternoon and tonight behind a cold front.
1110 AM MDT Sun May 21 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge across the western CONUS with ridge topping disturbance tracking southeast across the Dakotas. Upper ridge axis shifts into the Northern Plains on Monday as upper low/trof moves into the Pac NW. Large scale subsidence beneath the upper ridge will result in little cloud cover and no precip.
/13 (Now through Monday) The weak cold front that we have been discussing in previous discussions is moving across our forecast area early this morning as expected. Deep layer shear will be very low today with ridging aloft, so no organized severe convection is expected. Deep layer shear does increase slightly over our area on Monday (25 to 30 knots) as an upper level short wave trough moves east across the area and with that we look for the expected increase in convective coverage as earlier mentioned and also for a slight increase in storm intensity as well.
Another pleasant day Monday to start the work week, with temperatures a few degrees warmer than today. This will keep lows several degrees warmer than in previous days only dropping into the lower 50s. mostly sunny skies, light south wind, and low dewpoints will boost afternoon temps into the lower 80s.
Most cloud cover has broken enough to allow temperatures across the lower valley to reach 90 already and potentially help break whatever cap was in place across the upper valley.
A slightly cooler night can be expected with lows mainly in the upper 60s.
13Z sfc analysis shows high pressure firmly in control of the weather for eastern Kentucky with mostly clear skies and light winds. Currently, readings are running in the low to mid 50s while dewpoints are generally in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Inland portions of northern IL will have temperatures topping out around 80 degrees this afternoon, through a breeze moving inland across far northeastern IL will keep temperatures cooler along the lakeshore. Aside from some higher level cloudiness moving overhead tonight, the weather remains quiet with overnight lows falling off into the lower 50s (possibly upper 40s in typical cool spots).