Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low pressure will pass through the northern Great Basin Wednesday, sending a cold front through the Mojave Desert.
123 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023 High pressure brings dry weather Tuesday into Wednesday.
336 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Wednesday morning. A warm front will lift northward Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night allowing for some shower activity and warmer temperatures.
TFJ Upper ridge will be over eastern Montana for one more day today with warm and dry weather. Forecast confidence is increasing for a significant cold front pushing this direction from a large and strong trough of low pressure over the Pacific NW. The cold front move through area tonight and Wednesday as the upper trough ahead of the low moves into the forecast area. Rain will gradually spread into most of NE Montana Wednesday and Wednesday Night with the highest rainfall amounts expected to be in the southwest.
127 PM PDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Cooler through Wednesday, with gusty winds developing in the mountains and the desert slopes.
Currently, off shoots of high clouds associated with both Hurricane Lidia in the Pacific and the low pressue system in the Gulf are filtering in through much of the SE.
An area of low pressure that has begun to develop in the Bay of Campeche will ride along the western periphery of the ridge in the western North Atlantic. As this feature lifts northeastward towards the northern Gulf Coast, it will merge with the stationary front currently situated across the Straits of Florida and drag that northward as a warm front. On top of all the aforementioned parameters, the gradient across the Gulf, including the Florida Keys forecast area, will tighten as the area of low pressure transits the Gulf and shoots into the western Atlantic. After a few periods of wetter weather, the deep mean layer ridge centered in the western North Atlantic will slowly nudge its way westward towards our forecast area.
A weak upper level trough is also approaching from the west. Southerly flow will further strengthen on Wednesday as an upper level low digs into the Rockies.
149 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 An unsettled weather pattern will be with us through most of this week as an upper level low digs into the northwestern United States. Expect temperatures to be much cooler starting tomorrow, with highs generally in the 50s with periods of rain and mountain snow. Current radar imagery is showing a few rain showers developing across the area as an upper level low begins to push into the area from the northwest. Expect these showers to gradually increase in coverage over the next few hours and into the overnight as the upper level low pushes into the area, and most areas should see some rainfall overnight, even if rainfall amounts will generally be around a tenth of an inch or so.
1135 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023 A large and nearly stationary upper low will be located between James Bay and Georgian Bay today and Wednesday before drifting gradually east to Nova Scotia late this week.
Breezy conditions are anticipated for today and Wednesday as we transition towards those cooler temperatures.
Vertically-stacked low pressure remains centered just south of James Bay this afternoon. The stubborn upper level trough that has plagued the region over the last few days is expected to finally head off to the east while filling (weakening). Drier air/surface ridging increase Wednesday night. Attention then turns to a developing area of low pressure (now across the Pacific Northwest) which is expected to deepen as it hits the lee of the Rockies and heads toward the southern Great Lakes.
111 PM PDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Breezy and cooler conditions are on tap through midweek with chances for rain and high elevation snow showers through tonight. Many areas could see freezing temperatures Wednesday night.
GOES Satellite observations reveal a broad trough across the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. Shallow instability ahead of the trough has allowed for isolated thunderstorms to develop across southwest Montana. Shower activity will continue overnight into Wednesday as the trough tracks across the divide into southwest Montana and northern Wyoming. Snow levels will fall near 6,500 feet leading minor accumulations across the highest peaks.
As cloud cover exits to the northeast, a developing warm frontal feature is expected to push northward into southern Wisconsin.
1108 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 (Rest of Today) With morning lows much warmer than previous nights, temperatures have already recovered greatly with most locations in the 60s with elevated areas in NE AL in the low 50s. High clouds related to a low pressure system in the gulf will begin to filter in from the SW during the afternoon and evening hours increasing in coverage as the sunsets.
Winds shift southwesterly and factor into a much warmer afternoon for Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for many.
(The rest of today ) Cool start this morning but expect a quick warmup through the afternoon as warm front gradually lifts northward across the area.
Rain approaching as Pacific trough moves inland. Moderate southwest winds today, then stronger west winds Wednesday afternoon in south-central Idaho as the trough exits. Warming trend into the weekend as another Pacific ridge shifts inland.
310 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday) A stout upper-level trough remains in place across the eastern CONUS while dense cirrus amid the subtropical jet continues to overspread much of the CWA from west to east. Temperatures are on track to peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the CWA outside of the mountains of north Georgia, where highs will be some 5-10 degrees cooler. Dense cirrus will persist overnight, leading to warmer overnight lows than those last night -- generally in the mid-50s to lower 60s. The expansive rain shield of a low pressure system tracking west-to-east across the northern Gulf of Mexico will spread stratiform rain across the CWA tomorrow (Wednesday) from southwest to northeast over the course of the afternoon through the overnight period.
1238 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 A weak cold front has pushed through the Mid-South allowing our high temperatures today to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
These features will contain a substantial amount of tropical moisture, although the higher amounts are expected to stay south of the forecast area. As such, the track of the low places Central Alabama on the north side where easterly low- level flow and near zonal mid-level flow will not support strong moisture advection for much of the area. Until then, high clouds will continue to increase over the area today with temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s. The increased cloud cover and eventual rain will hold highs in the lower to mid 70s for tomorrow.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Rain chances continue tonight into Wednesday Showers are expected to continue tonight into tomorrow morning as the mid to upper-level trough approaches the region combining with the pacific moisture. Temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will maintain in the mid to upper 60s with locations across the immediate coast hanging in the lower 70s.
547 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday morning.
With the increase in clouds, overnight temps will trend a few degrees warmer compared to this morning, with lows mainly in the mid/upper 50s for most spots.
Big upper low that has been retrograding across SE Canada will be reaching its furthest west longitude tonight then gets kicked out by another upper low currently moving into the Pacific Northwest. One thing to watch for will be the potential for frost and freezing temperatures across the northern forecast area Wednesday night should skies remain mostly clear.
(The rest of tonight) High clouds are progressively expanding northward in response to Pacific moisture moving into Oklahoma and Arkansas in advance of an upper level trough to the west. The clouds and increased low level moisture associated with the northward lifting front will keep overnight lows several degrees above last night's values, in the low to mid 60s most spots.
Moisture will continue to increase overnight into Wednesday as the stalled boundary to the south lifts north as a warm front with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing by late Wednesday morning and continuing into the evening hours. Despite ample moisture, warmer 500mb temperatures and weak lapse rates will lead to another afternoon of isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers, with the best chance along the east coast metro areas in the late afternoon and evening.
These features at the base of a longwave trough centered over the High Plains should provide enough lift, along with moisture advection from a LLJ at/above 30 kts for a few showers or sprinkles across primarily eastern Central Texas overnight through Wednesday. occasionally gusty south winds at 10 to 15 mph will result in slightly warmer low temperatures will into the 60s by daybreak Wednesday. Across the Big Country, partial sunshine will provide warmer high temperatures Wednesday in the mid- upper 80s.
630 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Warm, above-average temperatures will continue tomorrow with the Southern Plains on the eastern periphery of a low-level thermal ridge.
Cooler temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the rest of the week. Breezy to gusty southwest winds remain over the higher terrain tonight, becoming stronger region- wide on Wednesday. However, conditions at the surface are not expected to completely dry out tonight with dewpoints forecast to slightly increase into early Wednesday morning ahead of an incoming low pressure system towards the northwest. As the base of the trough, associated with the low pressure system currently making its way through the Pacific Northwest, passes overhead on Wednesday, pressure gradients tighten further during an optimal time for efficient mixing.
Sunrise temperatures Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 50s, a full 10 degrees above normal for mid October. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is slowly strengthening in eastern Colorado. Temperatures will not be quite as cool tonight as prevailing southerlies continue to draw slightly warmer air into the high plains. Aforementioned prevailing southerlies will reinforce the warmer air mass across the high plains Wednesday, resulting in afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s(F) to possibly the lower 90s(F).
814 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Wednesday morning. A warm front will lift northward Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night allowing for some shower activity and warmer temperatures.
Another round of light rain coming through today as a second cold front passes through the region. (This evening through Wednesday) Visible satellite shows overcast conditions returning across the North Bay with rainfall chances associated with the passage of a cold front tonight increasing throughout the entire Bay Area from 22Z through 06Z. Similar to last night, the highest precipitation amounts are expected along the North Bay coast but amounts will be significantly lower than last night, only amounting to less than two tenths of an inch. Daytime high temperatures tomorrow are relatively similar to today, remaining slightly below average, with highs in the low 70's inland and in the mid to upper 60's along the coast.
Given the clear skies southwest of this line, temperatures already in the low to mid 40s, and dewpoints in the low to mid 30s across southwestern WI, the Frost Advisory still seems reasonable. As cloud cover exits to the northeast, a developing warm frontal feature is expected to push northward into southern Wisconsin.
Surface conditions are seasonably warm and humid with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the mid 70s. Over the next 24 hours this low will be located near the central Gulf Coast. A low pressure system is expected to expand and strengthen as it moves northeastward through the Gulf of Mexico.
600 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Updated Aviation Discussion An unsettled weather pattern will be with us through most of this week as an upper level low digs into the northwestern United States. Expect temperatures to be much cooler starting tomorrow, with highs generally in the 50s with periods of rain and mountain snow. Current radar imagery is showing a few rain showers developing across the area as an upper level low begins to push into the area from the northwest. Expect these showers to gradually increase in coverage over the next few hours and into the overnight as the upper level low pushes into the area, and most areas should see some rainfall overnight, even if rainfall amounts will generally be around a tenth of an inch or so.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight due to an approaching upper level short wave trough that is moving in from the northwest.
631 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Conditions to gradually destabilize across the region through tonight into Wednesday as an upper-level trough approaches the ArkLaTex from the west. Cool temperatures to persist with overnight lows in the lower 60s tonight and highs on Wednesday in the mid to upper 70s.
A frontal boundary over south Florida will lift north tonight and Wednesday as low pressure over the southwestern Gulf moves northeastward.
630 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Rain chances continue tonight into Wednesday Showers are expected to continue tonight into tomorrow morning as the mid to upper-level trough approaches the region combining with the pacific moisture. Temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will maintain in the mid to upper 60s with locations across the immediate coast hanging in the lower 70s.
A warm front is poised to surge northward into the area later tonight-tmrw. While the better focus for showers/storms will be outside our region, closer to the genesis of its low pressure field developing in the Central Plains, we do see both K and Showalter Indices still supportive for elevated thunder translate w/the boundary along our nw corridor in the 06z-15z time frame tonight and early tmrw. We effectively warm sector, dry, and cap after late morning, and high temps respond accordingly, pushing the lower 80s in our south and likely reaching at least the upper half 70s everywhere.
418 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 The ridging seen over the area the past few days is now departing as a trough approaches from the west. Scattered showers will continue to increase in coverage this evening as heights fall further under the progressing trough. A cold front will sweep from west to east across the entire area through Wednesday morning. The low should become closed Wednesday evening as it passes over southern Wyoming.
A cirrus shield is moving north aided by a lifting warm front. As this warm front crosses the region tomorrow, cloud cover will begin to diminish by late afternoon. High temperatures tomorrow were increased slightly due to the warm front passage and cloud coverage diminishing. A warm front will move over the Gulf Coast and bring in rain showers tomorrow afternoon.
Tonight will be dry with lows in the lower 60s inland, and mid 60s on the coast. High pressure overhead shifts to the northeast tonight as an area of low pressure develops over the western Gulf.
901 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday morning.
625 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 (Through tonight ) A weak warm-frontal boundary draped across northeastern OK and northwestern AR will continue to lift northward through the remainder of the afternoon and tonight as the low-level pressure gradient begins to tighten and southerly winds increase. Lows tonight will be much warmer -- about 10 degrees -- than last night, mainly ranging from the mid- upper 50s across far northeast OK and far northwest AR to low-mid 60s elsewhere.
422 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 The ridging seen over the area the past few days is now departing as a trough approaches from the west. Scattered showers will continue to increase in coverage this evening as heights fall further under the progressing trough. A cold front will sweep from west to east across the entire area through Wednesday morning. The low should become closed Wednesday evening as it passes over southern Wyoming.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) A stout upper-level trough remains in place across the eastern CONUS while dense cirrus amid the subtropical jet continues to overspread much of the CWA from west to east. Temperatures are on track to peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the CWA outside of the mountains of north Georgia, where highs will be some 5-10 degrees cooler. Dense cirrus will persist overnight, leading to warmer overnight lows than those last night -- generally in the mid-50s to lower 60s. The expansive rain shield of a low pressure system tracking west-to-east across the northern Gulf of Mexico will spread stratiform rain across the CWA tomorrow (Wednesday) from southwest to northeast over the course of the afternoon through the overnight period.
Expect light and variable winds with increasing clouds from a low pressure system to our east overnight and into tomorrow morning. Clouds swirling around that low pressure system to our east are slowly drifting into the area this evening. An H5 upper low continues to move slowly westward, bringing low to mid level cloud cover into the region from northeast to southwest. Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing where clouds prevail, with mid 20s to low 30s where skies remain clear. Winds will gradually increase out of the east as an upper low approaches the area from the southwest. Highs are expected to reach the lower to middle 50s.
An upper level trough will bring showers and possibly a thunderstorm this evening to NW CA.
748 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Aviation Big upper low that has been retrograding across SE Canada will be reaching its furthest west longitude tonight then gets kicked out by another upper low currently moving into the Pacific Northwest. One thing to watch for will be the potential for frost and freezing temperatures across the northern forecast area Wednesday night should skies remain mostly clear.
948 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Wednesday morning. A warm front will lift northward Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night allowing for some shower activity and warmer temperatures.
631 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Clouds swirling around that low pressure system to our east are slowly drifting into the area this evening. An H5 upper low continues to move slowly westward, bringing low to mid level cloud cover into the region from northeast to southwest. Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing where clouds prevail, with mid 20s to low 30s where skies remain clear. Winds will gradually increase out of the east as an upper low approaches the area from the southwest. Highs are expected to reach the lower to middle 50s.
This low will drag a warm front north across the Florida Peninsula today and tonight, with atmospheric moisture expected to increase substantially, with PWAT values of around 2. 5 inches forecast along and south of the warm front.
Low level moisture, however, will continue to move north up from Mexico and the Gulf, as a lee trough along the Texas and New Mexico state line develops. Gusty south winds today will increase, becoming breezy tonight, as the lee trough strengthens.
141 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Wednesday morning. A warm front will lift northward Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night allowing for some shower activity and warmer temperatures.
213 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2023 *** Glasgow radar remains down due to hardware upgrade and replacement until roughly October 16th *** MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a closed trough over southeast Ontario, and the Pacific Northwest and a ridge running north from the southern High Plains through eastern montana, central Canada and cresting out over Nunavut. This has placed northeast Montana under an unusual saddle point between the four larger airmasses with the trough to the west slowly gaining momentum and influence. Farther west a ridge trough couplet sets over the northeast Pacific.
Warmer temperatures and increasing rain chances arrive late Wednesday, especially Wednesday night.
941 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 The ridging seen over the area the past few days is now departing as a trough approaches from the west. Scattered showers will continue to increase in coverage this evening as heights fall further under the progressing trough. A cold front will sweep from west to east across the entire area through Wednesday morning. The low should become closed Wednesday evening as it passes over southern Wyoming.
1051 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Warm, above-average temperatures will continue tomorrow with the Southern Plains on the eastern periphery of a low-level thermal ridge.
Warmer temperatures and increasing rain chances arrive by late this afternoon for the western portions of the forecast area and spreads into the rest of the area by tonight.
845 PM PDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Cooler through Wednesday, with gusty winds developing in the mountains and the desert slopes.
Showers lifting from Cuba moved over the Lower Keys this morning and produced moderate to heavy rainfall. The shower activity is expected to reach the Lower and Middle Keys over the next several hours. Today and tonight, the low pressure system will shift to the northeast. The low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico mentioned earlier will create conditions that lead to speed convergence of winds at the surface.
Two deep, closed lows dominated the synoptic pattern this morning: one over southern Quebec, and another just off the coast of Washington. The Northern Plains were in between these two areas of troughing, with upper ridging cut off yesterday. At the surface, weak high pressure still extended south into eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota, while low pressure was beginning to develop in southern Montana. As the upper low to our west surges southeast through the day today, a surface cyclone will begin to develop on the lee side of the Rockies and move into the central CONUS. Highs will be slightly cooler today, from 50 to 60 degrees F.
147 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 A weak cold front will cross into the Carolinas on Wednesday before stalling. Low pressure advancing northeast from the Gulf of Mexico combined with a cold front from the west will bring a chance of rain to the area late Fri into Sat. Weak low pressure will develop along the stalled frontal boundary overnight and lift over the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday morning. Resultant weak CAA should be enough to nudge the cold front through our area and offshore. We will see little more than a wind shift out of the northwest and slightly cooler temps especially inland, otherwise no precipitation is expected as low-levels remain parched.
142 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday morning.
(Today and tonight) A long wave trough will slowly move into the western CONUS today creating a pseudo omega blocking pattern over North America. A number of short waves will be rotating around this larger trough with one moving out of the central Rockies into the Central Plains this afternoon. Strong surface cyclogenesis and pressure troughing will develop in lee of the Rockies today. The strongest winds will be in the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle closest to the surface cyclone in eastern Colorado and surface pressure falls.
434 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023 The persistent upper low to our north will start to drift to the east. A warm front will develop over the Midwest and Upper Ohio Valley.
The decreased coverage is due to the combination of the expected loss of cyclonic flow and surface ridging building in from the northwest. Continued mixed signals by short/mid term model suite over the track of a deepening low pressure system approaching from the southwest.