Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Extensive cloud cover should act to limit the overall severe threat, holding highs in the lower 80s.
356 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 Another day of intense heat is expected across the ArkLaMiss region as an intense high pressure slowly begins to weaken and its center moves eastward. Overnight lows are expected to remain in the middle 70s, which is slightly cooler than previous nights.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 70s for inland locations with coastal locations a bit warmer in the upper 70s.
1241 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 (This evening through Sunday) H500 ridging in place over the area will begin to shift southward along the Gulf Coast through Sunday.
Overnight water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showed the center of a mid-tropospheric trough axis from western Nebraska south across western Kansas down into the Texas Panhandle. Mid level drying was evident in the region of subsidence along and west of the trough axis.
Upper level trough is lifting northeastward along the periphery of the H5 ridge that has been meandering over the south-central Plains the past week. At the surface there are a couple weak lows over eastern Colorado, providing the low level focus for storm initiation, with decent instability per SPC Mesoscale analysis. Clearing from southwest to the northeast will allow for a range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. With clearing through the day Sunday, expecting warmer conditions with a range from the mid 80s to around 90F. Overnight lows will range from the 50s west into the lower 60s east. From the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs, a broad H5 ridge does extend over a good portion of the southern Plains backing west into the 4-corners region.
A Heat Advisory is out for the high foothills of the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains through Sunday. A large upper ridge of high pressure centered over central CA will remain dominant across our area through the weekend and provide the area with the first noticable heatwave of the season.
(Today through Sunday) The center of a high pressure system is still over southern LA/MS, leaving TN under northwest flow with plenty of atmospheric moisture available. Hot temperatures are still expected due to the influence of high pressure with high temperatures soaring again into the mid and upper-90's. By tonight, an upper-level trough will be tracking eastward into the Ohio River Valley. As it tracks eastward to our north, the high pressure system finally begins to break down, and our flow aloft strengthens as it becomes more zonal to southwesterly. A summertime-like pattern is ahead with a Gulf of Mexico high pressure helping to usher in lots of moisture.
Scattered thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures this weekend.
Upper ridge remains to our west though it will begin to flatten today as a trough moves into the Midwest. A series of convective complexes will continue to pivot around the ridge but latest guidance suggests that they will decay prior to arriving in our area bringing only debris cloud cover this morning. The hot and humid weather conditions continue with highs reach the lower to mid 90s resulting in Heat Index values in the 100-105 degree range. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s.
Latest models are a degree or so cooler for this weekend with the upper level trough entering British Columbia looking stronger than before.
A weak back door cold front will sag south into northern WI this afternoon, and combine with lake breeze boundaries to enhance convergence in far NE WI, leading to isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms. A weak trough or upper level low will move through southern WI tonight into Sunday, with most of the associated precipitation remaining south of GRB CWA. Lows tonight will be in the middle 50s north to the lower to middle 60s south.
Warmer holiday weekend with inland highs climbing into the mid and upper 80s by Sunday.
Upper ridge flattens into northwest flow through the day today.
301 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 An upper level short wave trough located across the region will continue to progress eastward today into the Mississippi Valley region.
Upper level trough is lifting northeastward along the periphery of the H5 ridge that has been meandering over the south-central Plains the past week. At the surface there are a couple weak lows over eastern Colorado, providing the low level focus for storm initiation, with decent instability per SPC Mesoscale analysis. Clearing from southwest to the northeast will allow for a range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. With clearing through the day Sunday, expecting warmer conditions with a range from the mid 80s to around 90F. Overnight lows will range from the 50s west into the lower 60s east. From the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs, a broad H5 ridge does extend over a good.
A weak synoptic cold front, reinforced by outflow from the aforementioned decaying convection in the southern Texas Panhandle, is slowly moving south through our FA with divergent surface flow along and behind the front, which is keeping more robust storm development from occurring. Vertical profiles indicate a decent CAP over much of the area until late afternoon and early evening, when the positively tilted upper trough axis begins to sweep across our area. The strongest storms should move E-SE across the southern South Plains toward the I20 corridor as steering flow aloft backs from WNW late this afternoon to almost N later this evening in the wake of the upper trough axis.
At the surface, weak high pressure in noted overhead, providing a light southerly flow this afternoon, while aloft ridging remains situated over the south- central US. The ridge aloft, which has been responsible for the dry and hot weather of the last several days, will stick around for a bit longer however, a pattern change is on the horizon. As we head into the weekend the pattern remains fairly stagnant with ridging at both the surface and aloft maintaining control. Late Sat into Sun, a much anticipated pattern change looks like it will slowly begin to unfold as a mid/upper level trough is progged to slide across the central Plains and into the Midwest, effectively eroding the southern US ridge. In addition, a few isolated showers may be able to get going by Sun afternoon as the ridge weakens overhead.
An upper level trough remains to the west of the forecast area per the 0730Z water vapor and profiler data. Surface obs show a trough of low pressure has shifted from central KS into southeastern KS aided by convective outflow from earlier storms.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms again today into this High Impact Weather Potential. Vertically-stacked low pressure currently centered over Eastern Ontario continues to slowly push eastward toward Quebec early this morning. Main cold front associated with this system has pushed east of Michigan. Upper level trough axis will swing thru Western Upper Michigan and Wisconsin today and into Eastern Upper and Lower Michigan tonight. Approaching upper level trough axis will provide some additional support to convection. High temps this afternoon will warm into the low to mid 80s across our entire CWA. Low temps tonight will range from the lower 50s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the lower 60s near Saginaw Bay.
(Today) Noticeably cooler conditions compared to the middle to latter part of last week are in the offing areawide today, with highs expected to be near normal in most areas owing to increased cloud cover and expectation of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s regionwide on Saturday and will cool into the low to mid 80s by Sunday.
Currently - A deep layered high aligned near the northern gulf coast is contributing to the western flank of and Atlantic ridge. However, troughing troughing off the Atlantic coast has kept a band of increased lower level moisture across our area. Forecast - Through the weekend the ridging to our west to migrate eastwards towards the Atlantic and weaken. The lower level weakness will remain unfortunately. Through the upcoming week the surface through lower level Atlantic ridge will become better established across the Florida peninsula. Periodic slight upward excursions are expected due to a couple of swaths of increased lower level moisture and associated lift riding in around the lower level ridge. Generally speaking, Atlantic ridging reaching across Florida will maintain light east to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the forecast.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) A positively-tilted trough will be situated over the Texas Panhandle this afternoon with another disturbance over northern Mexico. At the surface, a convectively, reinforced cold front will stall across portions of the northern Permian Basin. These features will help keep temperatures cooler this afternoon as high temperatures only reach the low to mid 90s for many. Instability is expected to be moderate but overall effective shear remains modest, except near the cold front. Lee troughing remains heading into Sunday as a weak disturbance sits over the region. Temperatures during the afternoon are expected to be a touch cooler than Saturday.
1238 AM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023 Weak ridging provides clear skies to start the day on Saturday. A cold front arrives in the evening bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms most locations overnight, exiting to the east by sunrise.
(Today through Sunday) Key Message: - Dangerous heat conditions expected for the Coastal Bend and Brush Country this afternoon The mid level ridge will remain from Louisiana southwest into south Texas today through Sunday, although the ridge may weaken a little over the region by Sunday. GOES imagery of total precipitable water shows an axis of higher moisture along the lower Texas coast into the Coastal Bend (PW up to 1. With the ridge weakening just a little bit, heat index values are expected to be below advisory criteria on Sunday.
(Today through Sunday) Upper level high pressure is now centered over Louisiana with South- Central Texas between this feature and a trough moving into the Central Great Plains. Highs this afternoon will be similar to yesterday, a few degrees cooler in some locations. Dewpoints will also be a degree or two cooler today which will lead to heat indices just below Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon. Even "cooler" highs are expected on Sunday with the majority of the area in the 90s, although some locations in the Rio Grande Plains still topping out around 100-103 degrees.
(Today through Sunday Night ) Upper level high pressure will shift eastward today along the Gulf Coast as an upper trough moves into the Plains. Tonight the upper trough moves into the Midwest and the high weakens along the Gulf Coast. The upper trough moves through the Great Lakes Sunday and into the northeast Sunday night. An upper ridge strengthens over the desert southwest during the weekend. High pressure will continue over the area today but will be shifting east with hot and humid conditions. A cold front will approach from the west tonight and bring an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms in the north and west today and more widespread on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be a couple of degrees cooler in most locations, upper 80s to upper 90s.
Sunday will be hot again but heat will be less of a concern due to drier dew points with the passage of the trof.
257 AM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023 Skies have become clear to partly cloudy overnight as the upper trof has shifted into Nebraska. However, there is an isolated renegade shower out over Logan county in closer proximity to the low circulation. The low will continue to shift east out over the central plains today as high pressure aloft builds across Colorado. Temperatures today will be warmer with about a +3c jump in 700mb temperatures over the Front range.
211 AM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023 07z surface analysis had low over eastern KS with inverted trough into south-central SD. Water vapour loop depicted upper low spinning over central NE. Temperatures will be much warmer given forecast soundings.
658 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 A warm front will stall out across Central Pennsylvania this weekend.
507 AM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023 With the longwave trough finally out of the way moving across the Central Plains, Wyoming can finally get a small taste of summer this holiday weekend. H5 ridge centered across California will try to extend across the Great Basin into western Wyoming starting today. Sunday the ridge will get a better hold on the state, holding off convection for the day, and nudging temps up another few degrees. Beyond this, the next large-scale trough drifts east across the Canadian Prairies starting Sunday, which will drag a weak cold front to the MT/WY border Sunday night.
321 AM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: The next couple days will be a transition period between the upper level ridge that has brought unseasonably warm temps to the region and the Canadian trough that will bring us back down to normal. A general threat of isolated pop up afternoon showers will exist through most of the week as the trough moves through to the north. The highest temps today are expected along the Milk/Missouri River Valley where the heat risk will be moderate for locations from Glasgow to Culbertson. The severe threat this afternoon/evening remains a bit marginal with the highest risk overall stretching from central Saskatchewan into central North Dakota. Within our CWA, the highest risk will be towards the northeastern corner including Sheridan and eastern Roosevelt counties.
A cyclone pressing through the Plains eroded its northwestern flank, while TUTT-like cells near the Yucatan and the southeastern Bahamas assaulted its southeastern flank. The 12Z regional RAOBs sampled falling heights in the core of the ridge as it loses its grip. Low level ridging over the western North Atlantic reaches west to near the Bahamas, giving way to a col-region and weak cyclonic curvature draped across Florida. Atlantic ridging to our north will maintain light to gentle breezes across the Keys through the forecast period.
617 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 Another day of intense heat is expected across the ArkLaMiss region as an intense high pressure slowly begins to weaken and its center moves eastward. Overnight lows are expected to remain in the middle 70s, which is slightly cooler than previous nights.
617 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 (Today) Noticeably cooler conditions compared to the middle to latter part of last week are in the offing areawide today, with highs expected to be near normal in most areas owing to increased cloud cover and expectation of showers and thunderstorms.
546 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 A warm front will stall out across Central Pennsylvania this weekend.
As the trough aloft continues to move towards Texas and moisture increases near the surface and aloft, rain chances will continue for most of the day. A weak cold front is expected to move into the Big Country from the northwest this morning.
632 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 (Today through Sunday) Key Message: - Dangerous heat conditions expected for the Coastal Bend and Brush Country this afternoon The mid level ridge will remain from Louisiana southwest into south Texas today through Sunday, although the ridge may weaken a little over the region by Sunday. GOES imagery of total precipitable water shows an axis of higher moisture along the lower Texas coast into the Coastal Bend (PW up to 1. With the ridge weakening just a little bit, heat index values are expected to be below advisory criteria on Sunday.
623 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) A positively-tilted trough will be situated over the Texas Panhandle this afternoon with another disturbance over northern Mexico. At the surface, a convectively, reinforced cold front will stall across portions of the northern Permian Basin. These features will help keep temperatures cooler this afternoon as high temperatures only reach the low to mid 90s for many. Instability is expected to be moderate but overall effective shear remains modest, except near the cold front. Lee troughing remains heading into Sunday as a weak disturbance sits over the region. Temperatures during the afternoon are expected to be a touch cooler than Saturday.
The high pressure ridge over the Northern Rockies will be knocked down today as an upper level trough settles into British Columbia. The main impact will be to increase the pressure gradient with valley wind gusts of 25-35 mph, to 45 mph on the higher peaks.
633 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 (Today through Sunday Night ) Upper level high pressure will shift eastward today along the Gulf Coast as an upper trough moves into the Plains. Tonight the upper trough moves into the Midwest and the high weakens along the Gulf Coast. The upper trough moves through the Great Lakes Sunday and into the northeast Sunday night. An upper ridge strengthens over the desert southwest during the weekend. High pressure will continue over the area today but will be shifting east with hot and humid conditions. A cold front will approach from the west tonight and bring an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms in the north and west today and more widespread on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be a couple of degrees cooler in most locations, upper 80s to upper 90s.
349 AM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023 Key Messages: 1) Quiet day expected with on isolated storms over some of the highest terrain.
This afternoon, as the main upper-level trough becomes a bit more established over NE/IA we could see some additional dCVA and weak convergence between 850-700 hPa develop. This afternoon, an upper trough will slide into IA. With more clouds overhead today, expect the high temps to be just a little cooler in the mid 80s.
This afternoon, an upper trough will slide into IA. With more clouds overhead today, expect the high temps to be just a little cooler in the mid 80s.
646 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 (Today and tonight) A couple of mid-level short wave troughs will move through the bast of the synoptic trough ranging from western Texas to western Quebec. At the surface, a weak cold front will move slowly into central Oklahoma then pass into southern Oklahoma this evening.
444 AM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023 07z surface analysis had low over eastern KS with inverted trough into south-central SD. Water vapour loop depicted upper low spinning over central NE. Temperatures will be much warmer given forecast soundings.
543 AM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023 Skies have become clear to partly cloudy overnight as the upper trof has shifted into Nebraska. However, there is an isolated renegade shower out over Logan county in closer proximity to the low circulation. The low will continue to shift east out over the central plains today as high pressure aloft builds across Colorado. Temperatures today will be warmer with about a +3c jump in 700mb temperatures over the Front range.
635 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 An upper level short wave trough located across the region will continue to progress eastward today into the Mississippi Valley region.
We are under the influence of a ridge of high pressure which has generated a thermal trough.
610 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 (Today through Sunday) The center of a high pressure system is still over southern LA/MS, leaving TN under northwest flow with plenty of atmospheric moisture available. Hot temperatures are still expected due to the influence of high pressure with high temperatures soaring again into the mid and upper-90's. By tonight, an upper-level trough will be tracking eastward into the Ohio River Valley. As it tracks eastward to our north, the high pressure system finally begins to break down, and our flow aloft strengthens as it becomes more zonal to southwesterly. A summertime-like pattern is ahead with a Gulf of Mexico high pressure helping to usher in lots of moisture.
High pressure will strengthen across the region bringing a warming and drying trend heading into the Fourth of July.
608 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 (Today through Sunday) Upper level high pressure is now centered over Louisiana with South- Central Texas between this feature and a trough moving into the Central Great Plains. Highs this afternoon will be similar to yesterday, a few degrees cooler in some locations. Dewpoints will also be a degree or two cooler today which will lead to heat indices just below Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon. Even "cooler" highs are expected on Sunday with the majority of the area in the 90s, although some locations in the Rio Grande Plains still topping out around 100-103 degrees.
Upper ridge remains parked over the Deep South, and trofiness north of the Great Lakes leaves us in the Ring of Fire in between. Mid-level trough will traverse the Ohio Valley region on Sunday while pushing a weak baroclinic zone across the forecast area where potentially severe storms will focus Sunday afternoon.
926 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 Skies have cleared off enough, coupled with model and observed soundings handling of the low level thermodynamics to hoist a heat advisory for parts of the area and sent that about 20 minutes ago. Otherwise observed water vapor and model trends with the upper trough point towards increasing large scale ascent late this afternoon and evening that will likely result in more widespread convection. Sunday will be hot again but heat will be less of a concern due to drier dew points with the passage of the trof.
936 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 Another day of hot temperatures and Heat Indices of 100-105 this afternoon with drier air continuing across the area and the upper ridge over the northern Gulf. Highs in the lower to mid 90s south, and mid to upper 90s elsewhere. Weak ridging is building over the northern Gulf and will gradually settle across the area over the next few days with generally E/NE flow and afternoon sea breezes turning winds onshore near the coast each day.
Otherwise, high pressure will allow for very warm and dry conditions to persist through the weekend. Overall, high pressure will provide very warm temperatures along with dry conditions across Nevada.
High pressure will finally start to shift eastward tomorrow as an upper trough moves into the middle part of the country.
Skies have cleared off enough, coupled with model and observed soundings handling of the low level thermodynamics to hoist a heat advisory for parts of the area and sent that about 20 minutes ago. Otherwise observed water vapor and model trends with the upper trough point towards increasing large scale ascent late this afternoon and evening that will likely result in more widespread convection. Sunday will be hot again but heat will be less of a concern due to drier dew points with the passage of the trof.
Upper level ridging will weaken a bit on Sunday as trough digs across the Plains.
251 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 An upper level trough continues to slide eastward across the region this afternoon, producing showers and thunderstorms just to the south of our CWA through the day. The upper level trough moves into the central Mississippi Valley tonight.
Both of these boundaries should continue to support at least isolated convection through the afternoon before waning this evening with the passage of a broad upper trough. Initially light/variable winds within surface ridging will trend more southeasterly through the day as the ridge departs.
A warm and active pattern will start the week, followed by cooler and quieter conditions.
141 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 Weak ridging is building into the north today as the trough continues to dissipate and shift eastward. An upper high is also in place over the northern Gulf region. The upper high will gradually settle over the state as the ridge axis settles across the area.
A ridge of high pressure centered over southern California is trying to build into our region this afternoon. This ridge is responsible for warming temperatures across the region. On Sunday, temperatures look a couple degrees warmer with 90s certainly possible across the lower valleys. Isolated thunderstorms look possible once again on Sunday, but this time the focus is across the south hills into the southeast highlands, potentially as far north as the Magic Valley into the lower Snake Plain. There's not a strong focus for the storms, appears to be mainly moisture working around the northern periphery of the high pressure area.