Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The mid-level ridging is expected to become more elongated, extending from over Louisiana west to over Southern Arizona. The flood watch is set to expire at midday to account for the higher rain chances shifting southeast of the northeast portion of our forecast area.
652 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) Triple digit temperatures and heat index values will continue to be the main weather highlight in the short term period as the mid/upper level ridge dominates over Texas. These values do approach the high to extreme levels for portions of the region tomorrow afternoon, which indicate that those who spend a prolonged period outdoors due to work or exercise many not be able to cool themselves during the hottest parts of the day.
620 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (This evening through Friday) Mid-level ridging will start to break down this evening and into tomorrow. Perturbations along the northern periphery of the broader ridge will help to aid in thunderstorm development along the High Plains this evening. A weak front will try to make its way into northern Oklahoma this evening, helping low temperatures to get down into the 70s across northern Oklahoma, while the rest of the area will struggle to get out of the low 80s. Another hot day is in store again tomorrow as the aforementioned front retreats back to the north, and mid-level ridging stays over the area.
As another low pressure system pushes in on Friday, conditions will destabilize and the region will see another round of afternoon thunderstorm activity.
547 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Upper ridge today stretches from AZ to FL with two circulation centers, one over SE AZ and the over over NE TX. The ridge will build west tonight and Friday as a low tracks over the top of the ridge into the Northern Plains. There is a chance of storms over the higher elevations tonight and Friday.
The cold front will slowly pass during the early morning hours with a gradual lowering of dewpoints on Fri via enely winds. Gehring (Issued 325 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023) Tonight through Friday Night: The potential for pop-up showers and thunderstorms remains in the forecast this afternoon and evening, with the highest chances north of the I-94 corridor in the evening hours. The cold front associated with the low over James Bay Canada will sweep southward across our region overnight into Friday morning.
- Another shot for severe storms will return Saturday afternoon and evening along a cold front.
Temperatures should be warmer, reaching into the upper 80s to around 90 tomorrow and Saturday. Temperatures should be warmer, reaching into the upper 80s to around 90 tomorrow.
We will start to see increased cloud cover and rain chances across northern and eastern portions of the state by the end of the week, as the upper ridge breaks down as an upper SWT and storm system move across the central Plains and Midwest regions.
A long wave trough/closed low system will be overhead by Saturday morning. Also worthwhile noting that the NBM QPF violin plots show the QPF distribution becoming more heavily weighted in the lower (less than 1 inch) ends as you select points further east in our CWA, and this trend is even more pronounced in the latest runs. Another trough is expected by mid-week, but there is significant model consensus and consistency issues with that particular system.
The upper ridge still dominates Friday along with the extremely hot air mass.
1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Upper ridge today stretches from AZ to FL with two circulation centers, one over SE AZ and the over over NE TX. The ridge will build west tonight and Friday as a low tracks over the top of the ridge into the Northern Plains. There is a chance of storms over the higher elevations tonight and Friday.
1207 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 A cold front approaches late tonight through Friday, then crosses the area Friday night and early Saturday.
The upper part of this high(H3) will meander around the Houston area while the H85 center of this high meanders around SELA.
-Lower confidence in potential impacts north of I-94 due to uncertainties in location of banding and track of the low. Cloud cover has begun to increase in advance of a developing large scale extratropical cyclone centered over Wyoming. Areas that receive sunshine this afternoon will likely end up warmer into the mid to upper 80s, while areas with cloud cover may fall on the cooler side.
1121 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Threat for storms has ended as cold front exits into central lower Michigan. A cold front currently draped from eastern upper back across northern Lake Michigan into Wisconsin will swing across the CWA this afternoon and evening, working its way south of the area tonight. Specifically, a few strong storms have already formed along the aforementioned cold front this afternoon -- including one over eastern Mackinac/Chippewa counties. Current confidence is relatively low in additional development along the cold front as the afternoon/evening progresses, especially in regards to areal coverage. Shower and storm chances will wane through the evening as the cold front moves south of the CWA, leaving mostly clear skies and weak/calm winds behind it overnight. Localized readings in the low 50s will be possible across typical interior low-lying cold spots.
and also on the southeast extent of the system with a warm frontal boundary. To start the period an open positive tilt trof will be slowly exiting the eastern Dakotas.
347 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 The westerlies were expanding back southward as the upper level ridge is suppressed into the southern plains. The southern edge of the westerlies, along and north of the low level thermal boundary where low level moisture doesn't mix out, is a favored location for MCS activity given the upslope flow that is typical. In the wake of this feature, a cold front will pass across western Kansas Saturday evening. Yet another upper level disturbance will approach the high plains by the middle of the week. By late week, the mid to high level flow will become more northwesterly, but there will still be a small component of the flow across the Rockies, which supports weak lee troughing.
The weekend is looking dry and warm as high pressure slowly moves through. The showers over the ridges have dissipated.
In the absence of any boundaries and not much lift to counter the sinking air regime of the upper ridge, we expect convective development to be isolated, and restricted to the areas below the mid-level moisture axis.
This has in turn kept temperatures several degrees cooler (in the upper 70s to low 80s) than previously forecast across western parts of IL. Light winds continue tonight in advance of an approaching cold front shifting southward down the lake. The surface cold front is expected to shift southward across our area on Friday.
1059 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (This evening through Friday) Mid-level ridging will start to break down this evening and into tomorrow. Perturbations along the northern periphery of the broader ridge will help to aid in thunderstorm development along the High Plains this evening. A weak front will try to make its way into northern Oklahoma this evening, helping low temperatures to get down into the 70s across northern Oklahoma, while the rest of the area will struggle to get out of the low 80s. Another hot day is in store again tomorrow as the aforementioned front retreats back to the north, and mid-level ridging stays over the area.
900 PM PDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Becoming warmer this weekend as high pressure aloft strengthens over California.
400 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 A weak cold front will sag south into central Ohio before washing out. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail through Saturday.
(Today and tonight) The eastern edge of the persistent upper ridge will continue to erode today, allowing for deeper moisture and weak disturbances to move into the forecast area on northwest flow.
146 AM MDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Current water imagery showing a broad upper trough sitting over the northern Rockies, with two separate circulations evident. The upper low will push into the central Dakotas Saturday and this will turn the upper flow to the northwest and push the strongest forcing east of the area. Highs today and Saturday will be in the 70s, with the east struggling to get out of the lower 70s.
354 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Cooler air will be over the area today and tonight with a few showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible today.
142 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 High pressure will persist across the region overnight.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop again tonight over the high plains of western Nebraska/eastern Wyoming and Colorado. But a more significant upper low pressure system over the Dakotas will drive a cold front across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa Saturday evening.
305 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Upper level low centered over Quebec this morning, with modest amplification of the trough axis along the East Coast today. Weak cold front dropping south, clearing the State around 12z. The large high pressure will set us up for a dry and pleasant first half of the weekend. A copious amount of upper level Pacific energy over the Rockies will then be directed toward our region for the second half of the weekend as a strong upper level wave and trough also tracks through Central Canada.
25" range with winds in the lower half of the troposphere somewhat weak, so precipitation efficiency will be favorable for some brief torrential downpours. To end the work week, Friday should be a decent day with daytime highs mostly in the low to middle 80s with more comfortable dewpoints falling into the upper 50s by later in the afternoon.
237 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Today should be drier in the mountains, but showers will be possible east of the Blue Ridge through this afternoon.
The upper level ridge and low level thermal ridge will remain in control of our weather through the next 24 hours.
353 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 (Issued 353 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023) Today through Saturday: Quiet weather is expected today through the day Saturday as high pressure moves through the area. Warmer temps will linger in the west today, with mid/upper 80s expected for highs.
306 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Cooler air will be over the area today and tonight with a few showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible today.
1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) Triple digit temperatures and heat index values will continue to be the main weather highlight in the short term period as the mid/upper level ridge dominates over Texas. These values do approach the high to extreme levels for portions of the region tomorrow afternoon, which indicate that those who spend a prolonged period outdoors due to work or exercise many not be able to cool themselves during the hottest parts of the day.
We expect temperatures to remain closer to average for early Aug but still above normal with the highest values near the OK state line where some triple digit readings are most likely. We maintained some low pops Friday night across the area as we could see some activity drift east/southeast off the high plains late in the night. A more pronounced mid/upper trough is progged to emerge from the Northern Rockies and move into the Northern and Central Plains late in the period. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a southward moving frontal boundary with the highest probabilities expected during the overnight hours.
- Severe weather possible ahead of cold front Saturday evening. Persistent cloud cover will help keep temperatures relatively cool today, with highs only reaching the low to mid 80s. A better chance for severe weather will arrive Saturday evening and into Saturday night, as a cold front sweeps through the Central Plains. Of course, where exactly these storms develop will be a function of where the cold front sets up by Saturday afternoon/evening, leaving some uncertainty in the forecast for now.
The weekend is looking dry and warm as high pressure slowly moves through.
1218 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 (This evening through Friday) The synoptic pattern has changed very little over the past 24 hours with the upper ridge centered over SE TX with a broad midlevel trough positioned over the NW CONUS. The core of the upper ridge will sink slightly southwestward on Friday with the midlevel moisture plume consequently shifting more squarely over the South Plains region during the afternoon.
(Today through Saturday) Upper ridging continues to influence South-Central Texas today, tomorrow, and for the foreseeable future. Saturday will be similar to today, with temperatures possibly a degree warmer than we will see this afternoon.
1243 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 (This evening through Friday) Not much change to talk about in the short term, with very hot and dry weather prevailing as high pressure dominates.
Weak high pressure will build in for the weekend. Otherwise, daytime highs will range from the lower 80s across the west (where some sun may peak out later today) to upper 70s across the east.
651 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 A weak cold front will sag south into central Ohio before washing out. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail through Saturday.
High temperatures will trend cooler today as high pressure slides south from Canada, with below to well below normal temperatures expected this weekend. High temperatures across the plains of North Central and Central Montana today with this shift to northerly surface winds will trend 5-8 degrees cooler than yesterday, with the valleys of Central and Southwest Montana trending and additional 2-4 degrees cooler on average.
701 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Cooler air will be over the area today and tonight with a few showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible today.
647 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 (Today and tonight) The eastern edge of the persistent upper ridge will continue to erode today, allowing for deeper moisture and weak disturbances to move into the forecast area on northwest flow.
The trough is broad and stretches across the entirety of northern WY today, so instability aloft will be widespread. 16 in the highest 5% of readings ever at KRIW. The trough actually has two separate competing circulation centers, one in NE ID, and one developing in SE MT.
Heading through today, the upper-level ridge begins to slide back to the west and strengthen over the southern Great Plains and Desert Southwest. Temperatures increase further Saturday afternoon as the ridge continues to build.
737 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 A cold front will push south across Pennsylvania late today, then high pressure will build in from the Great Lakes over the weekend.
A flattened ridge near 30N is stretched across the southern US, and it's position is allowing for monsoonal flow to rotate across the region.
A slow-moving upper trough is expected to linger over the Pacific Northwest through the day Saturday, while an upper ridge remains over the southern U.
928 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 A weak cold front will sag south into central Ohio before washing out. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail through Saturday.
436 AM PDT Fri Aug 4 2023 High pressure centered over northern Mexico will strengthen across southern California bringing a warming trend through the weekend with inland high temperatures 5 to locally 10 degrees above average for the weekend.
1056 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Today should be drier in the mountains, but showers will be possible east of the Blue Ridge through this afternoon.
628 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Today should be drier in the mountains, but showers will be possible east of the Blue Ridge through this afternoon.
624 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 (Today through Saturday) Mid-level ridging over Texas will continue to be the driving force for the weather through the period. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
316 AM MDT Fri Aug 4 2023 High temperatures will trend cooler today as high pressure slides south from Canada, with below to well below normal temperatures expected this weekend. High temperatures across the plains of North Central and Central Montana today with this shift to northerly surface winds will trend 5-8 degrees cooler than yesterday, with the valleys of Central and Southwest Montana trending and additional 2-4 degrees cooler on average.
The westerlies were expanding back southward as the upper level ridge is suppressed into the southern plains. The southern edge of the westerlies, along and north of the low level thermal boundary where low level moisture doesn't mix out, is a favored location for MCS activity given the upslope flow that is typical. In the wake of this feature, a cold front will pass across western Kansas Saturday evening. Yet another upper level disturbance will approach the high plains by the middle of the week. By late week, the mid to high level flow will become more northwesterly, but there will still be a small component of the flow across the Rockies, which supports weak lee troughing.
This is due to that upper level high shifting over to the southern half AZ/NM border and drying out the area. Due to this high, our daytime high temperatures will begin to rise, with the hottest day being Saturday, with the probability for Tucson reaching 110+ being 62%.
Forecast soundings, even across the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, aren't overly supportive of widespread afternoon cumulus (CU) this afternoon and mostly sunny skies are forecast.
Rain and storm chances will be mainly in the Cumberland Plateau and Southern Valley counties this afternoon as upper level northwesterly flow continues with ridging over the Southern Great Plains. Some clouds will linger today bringing pleasant temps (for August) with highs in the lower to mid 80s for most of the Valley.
719 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Aviation Quiet weather through Saturday with near zero chance of any rain as drying and subsidence follows in the wake of a cold front passage.
The Florida Keys continue to remain under the influence of a col as an upper level trough is slowly pushing off the East Coast and out across the Atlantic. In its wake upper level ridge across the central US is slowly nosing in. Weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward across the Bahamas will maintain light mainly southeast breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters, becoming variable at times in the afternoon and evening hours, through Saturday evening.
620 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 (Today through Saturday) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat with increased with heat illnesses possible today - Elevated fire weather conditions are expected west of HWY-281 this afternoon and early evening The 500 mb ridge remains over the forecast area and vicinity, which is steering any precipitation or cooling pattern away from South Texas. This pattern will continue into the weekend as the ridge remains entrenched over the Desert SW and into South Texas. The models are keying in on the outer periphery of the 500 mb ridge, where the PWAT values will be around 1.
549 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 (Today through Saturday) Upper ridging continues to influence South-Central Texas today, tomorrow, and for the foreseeable future. Saturday will be similar to today, with temperatures possibly a degree warmer than we will see this afternoon.
956 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Cooler air will be over the area today and tonight with a few showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible today.
320 AM PDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Temperatures will begin to trend upward today and Saturday as ridging in the Desert Southwest builds back westward.
625 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Cold front is advancing south across the last terminals at time of discussion. VFR conditions hold through the day as high pressure begins to gradually build into the region. Upper level low centered over Quebec this morning, with modest amplification of the trough axis along the East Coast today. Weak cold front dropping south, clearing the State around 12z. The large high pressure will set us up for a dry and pleasant first half of the weekend. A copious amount of upper level Pacific energy over the Rockies will then be directed toward our region for the second half of the weekend as a strong upper level wave and trough also tracks through Central Canada.
(Today through Saturday) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat with increased with heat illnesses possible today - Elevated fire weather conditions are expected west of HWY-281 this afternoon and early evening The 500 mb ridge remains over the forecast area and vicinity, which is steering any precipitation or cooling pattern away from South Texas. This pattern will continue into the weekend as the ridge remains entrenched over the Desert SW and into South Texas. The models are keying in on the outer periphery of the 500 mb ridge, where the PWAT values will be around 1.
(Today through Saturday) Mid-level ridging over Texas will continue to be the driving force for the weather through the period. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Quiet weather through Saturday with near zero chance of any rain as drying and subsidence follows in the wake of a cold front passage.
201 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 A cold front will push south across Pennsylvania late today, then high pressure will build in from the Great Lakes over the weekend.
104 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 (Today through Saturday) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat with increased with heat illnesses possible today - Elevated fire weather conditions are expected west of HWY-281 this afternoon and early evening The 500 mb ridge remains over the forecast area and vicinity, which is steering any precipitation or cooling pattern away from South Texas. This pattern will continue into the weekend as the ridge remains entrenched over the Desert SW and into South Texas. The models are keying in on the outer periphery of the 500 mb ridge, where the PWAT values will be around 1.
1213 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 (Today through Saturday) Upper ridging continues to influence South-Central Texas today, tomorrow, and for the foreseeable future. Saturday will be similar to today, with temperatures possibly a degree warmer than we will see this afternoon.
(Tonight through Saturday night) The mid-level ridging is expected to continue to be the driving force for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. As for the low temperatures, that is still going to be in the range of upper 70s to lower 80s. While having the lower relative humidity will help us stay out of the Heat Advisory conditions, we do have to worry about fire weather.
Warmer temperatures linger in southwestern WI, while an easterly breeze advects cooler air from Lake Michigan into southeastern WI.
Shear values look to remain on the low side when convection is present, with 0-6 km bulk shear values typically 25 knots or less.
(This evening through Saturday) Elongated mid-level ridging extended from over Western Arizona east to over much of the state of Louisiana. A weak surface front extended from low pressure across Western Missouri southeast to along the Interstate 22 and Highway 280 corridor. The elongated ridge aloft will continue to remain to our west, allowing a mid-level weakness to linger over much of our area. The elongated ridging in the mid levels to our west will expand a bit on Saturday, nosing more into South-Central Mississippi while the weak surface boundary becomes more zonal, extending from North Mississippi into South-Central Georgia. Highs will range from near 90 in the higher elevations east to the mid 90s south and west.
The focal point for storm development this evening for our area will be a residual outflow boundary/cold front that is oriented from north central Oklahoma through western Oklahoma and into the Texas Panhandle.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of high pressure that extended from north of Lake Superior south through the western Great Lakes. Weak low pressure was located over the northern and central Plains. This high pressure to gradually shift east tonight and stretch from eastern Ontario into the eastern Great Lakes. In addition to the high clouds and smoke, there could be some late night patchy fog over northern WI. Min temperatures to be in the lower to middle 50s north, upper 50s to lower 60s south.