Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
331 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 High pressure overhead will weaken today as a cold front moves through and merges with an offshore low pressure system.
1057 PM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 (Tonight) High pressure has been slowly building southeastward tonight. These good radiational cooling conditions are expected to continue into portions of the overnight hours and should allow temperatures to continue to fall into the lower to mid 20s in many locations. This should help to keep lows from dropping into the teens and patchy freezing fog from developing.
(Today) Today will bring another day of cool and calm weather thanks to high pressure. The high pressure center has slowly been translating east and is currently off to our NW continuing to push height rises into our area. Being under this high pressure influence, winds are incredibly light, with several location reporting entirely calm winds. Light winds will continue through morning and with only scattered high clouds slowly moving through temperatures will continue to drop steadily to the low 20s. Along with the cold temps, we are still incredibly dry with dew points in the low 20s and some in the teens. There is a possibility, with such light winds, of freezing fog developing in the early morning hours. A high scattered cloud deck will continue to ripple through during the day and highs will only make it to the low 50s.
Model forecast soundings do indicate the low level jet will gradually weaken after midnight as well as a decrease in the more opaque cloud-cover, suggesting our forecast overnight lows in the mid- upper 20s are reasonable.
1059 PM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday) High pressure will continue to move into the state through Wednesday. Winds should be a lot weaker with the pressure gradient off to the east, so wind chill values in the morning will be a few degrees cooler in the upper teens to mid 20s. As the high shifts east, flow will transition to the east by early Wednesday morning, and then east southeast by Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, the southeasterly flow will bring slightly warmer air with high temps in the low to mid 50s on Wednesday.
Satellite loop at 04Z shows the last vestiges of stratocu breaking up over the N Mtns, as inversion heights fall and high pressure ridge builds in. Further east, a more persistent breeze should hold readings closer to NBM min temps in the low to mid 20s.
High pressure is overhead this evening bringing light winds and mostly clear skies leading to excellent radiational cooling. There is some spread in the guidance for tonight with the NBM nearly 5-7 degrees warmer than MET/MAV guidance. Some of the sheltered valleys may end up a degree or two colder than forecast, and the opposite for the ridgetops. Highs Wednesday will be much warmer. Also for tonight, NBM low temperature guidance is still running a few degrees to high with the NAM/GFS blend much cooler and seems more reasonable with the low dew points, light winds and mostly clear skies.
253 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 High pressure will dominate through much of the rest of this week, leading to fair weather.
However, the presence of the sfc ridging extending from the OH Valley SW into the Lower MS Valley and extreme SE TX will begin to ease E overnight, with a deeper SErly return flow commencing in its wake by/after daybreak Wednesday. Thus, near to sub-freezing temps are expected over these areas, with temps moderating farther W over E TX.
932 PM MST Tue Dec 19 2023 - Mostly quiet weather through this week, with dirty ridging and some light mountain snow showers. Dirty ridging will keep conditions warm and dry for most of the CWA.
310 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 Key Messages: * Strong ridge of high pressure brings dry and steadily warming temperatures to eastern Kentucky through the end of the week.
High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday and generally in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Model soundings show a pretty stark low level inversion, so the mid slope regions will definitely be warmer than the valley.
1025 PM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Longwave troughing continues over the western CONUS with mid- level ridging across the central CONUS. Ahead of this developing trough is southwesterly flow aloft with lee troughing and southerly/southeasterly winds at the surface.
Already light winds further weak through the day as this high is loses cohesion as a result of interaction with a stronger anticyclone rapidly building across northern Ontario/Quebec. A weak backdoor cold front will drop across SE MI late this evening into tonight as a result of the this secondary high building over the Great Lakes.
The center of cold dry Canadian high pressure will remain in place in our vicinity. Weak ridging will allow daytime temperatures to warm to near normal levels.
1009 PM EST Tue Dec 19 2023 As high pressure builds into the area, clouds will decrease and lake effect snow showers and flurries will diminish for tonight.
104 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2023 Key Messages: * No impactful weather is expected during the short-term period Discussion: Early-morning GOES-17 water vapor imagery depicts a wound-up and seemingly cut-off low pressure system off the northern coast of California between the Polar jet racing into British Colombia and the subtropical jet arcing toward the southwestern United States. With temperatures running some 10 degrees warmer this morning compared to yesterday morning, high temperatures today will be similarly 10 degrees warmer and in the low to mid 40s. Tomorrow will be decidedly cloudy and marked by temperatures in the low to mid 40s.
1004 PM EST Tue Dec 19 2023 Cool high pressure builds in behind a departing cold departing front. High pressure then remains in control through the remainder of the week. A cool, dry, and sunny day today in the wake of the cold front which passed through overnight. CAA has abated and the high pressure is building in from the west. Current forecast calls for lows in the low to mid 20s across much of mainland ENC, with high 30s along the OBX. Dry, cool, and quiet weather will continue Wednesday, with highs in the mid to upper 40s, similar to today but a few degrees warmer in spots. Conditions will eventually moderate by late week with strong high pressure remaining over the region.
232 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 Cool and dry conditions with lighter winds are expected through the remainder of the week as high pressure builds into and over the local area.
351 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 High pressure building into our area will allow for dry conditions that will last through the rest of the week.
- Breezy and warmer Wednesday - Wet for the end of the week and into the weekend Ridging will continue into Wednesday as the next weather system approaches the CWA. Southeast Kansas is likely to have the highest winds during the afternoon.
1048 PM EST Tue Dec 19 2023 Dry high pressure lingers over our region into the weekend.
The center of cold dry Canadian high pressure will remain in place in our vicinity.
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over the entire Eastern US early this morning. with pronounced ridging extending thru the Western Great Lakes region. Upstream weak/moisture-starved cold front now extends from low pressure centered over James Bay to the north shore of Lake Superior into far Northern Minnesota. Southern tip of this weak/moisture-starved cold front will clip Northern Michigan this morning. Large area of strong Canadian high pressure will track eastward thru Ontario in the wake of this front.
1250 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 Dry high pressure lingers over our region into the weekend.
246 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 Short Term/Marine - Another dry day Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front moving south over the UP and will move across the cwa later today.
Otherwise, the winds will keep temperatures from crashing tonight with overnight lows expected to hold in the lower 60s to near 60 degrees. Unlike last night's surge, conditions will remain windy through Wednesday as high pressure slides into the Southeast U. From synopsis: High pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley will continue to slide towards the Eastern Seaboard overnight and Wednesday. As the area of high pressure weakens slightly and slides northeastward late in the week through the weekend, breezes will modestly slacken and slowly veer to the east to southeast. Gusty northeast breezes near 20 knots are expected through the TAF period as a strong high pressure settles across the southeast U.
(Today and tonight) An upper level low, currently in the far eastern Pacific and off the California coast, will move south today, and then east in the general direction of the northern Baja region tonight. Our area will be in southwest flow aloft, well out ahead of this low.
A weak U/L ridge will build over the Florida peninsula through the remainder of the week and the weekend.
1206 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 Below normal temperatures under dry high pressure will prevail across the area through the midweek period.
Seasonally cool and dry conditions will prevail for the next several days as high pressure dominates much of the eastern U. By the end of the week, a slow moving cold front will approach, marking the start of a wet and unsettled holiday weekend.
Highs today will be in the mid to upper 50s, and highs on Thursday will be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Lows tonight range from around 30 well inland to the lower 40s at the coast.
As the upper level trough continues to move southward with time, a secondary wave of precipitation and isolated thunderstorm activity looks to push through the southern Sacramento Valley, Delta, and northern San Joaquin Valley areas later this afternoon into the evening hours. Furthermore, probabilities of mountain snowfall remain highest along the Sierra, south of the Highway 50 corridor, with a 60 to 80% chance of exceeding 1" of additional snowfall and a 30 to 60% chance of exceeding 4" of additional snowfall.
We should still see enough sun today to help send temperatures well into the 50s to lower 60s, and most guidance show a window of clearer skies tonight that will allow temperatures to fall below freezing for much of the area east of the Delta region.
During this time, temperatures will continue to be near to above normal east of the Divide, with cooler temperatures across the west. The first component is a potent closed low pressure that stagnates off the coast of California for much of the week. It is not until the second component which is a trough that digs across the PACNW helping usher the low east.
941 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 High pressure will remain in control through the end of the week. A dry cold front dissipates over the area on Thursday before high pressure returns into the holiday weekend. The higher terrain should stay mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Another seasonably chilly night in response to the continued high pressure over the region. Widespread 20s are expected, locally to near freezing at the usual milder spots. Heading into latter portions of the work week, a weak cold front approaches from the north on Thursday. However, it should quickly erode as high pressure remains in charge along the Eastern Seaboard.
A majority of the latest deterministic models indicate that a warm front will develop across the region today. However, despite the clouds, warm southerly winds will allow temperatures to warm up into the upper 40s to upper 50s, about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Expect a rather mild night tonight with lows only dipping down into the low 30s to low 40s, about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
Surface obs showed a large ridge over the eastern CONUS with lower pressure over the Foothills of the Rockies. A warming trend will also continue with afternoon highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday in the mid 50's.
722 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 Aviation - Another dry day Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front moving south over the UP and will move across the cwa later today.
(Today and tonight) A short wave trough was currently over the area early this morning bringing mid and high level cloud cover. As this initial short wave moves northeast of the area later this morning, weak short wave ridging and subsidence will take its place. However, the next short wave trough will approach from the same region this evening. Overnight temperatures tonight will be warmer with the increase in low level moisture.
As mentioned above, the period will begin dry and calm as high pressure remains in control.
Above normal temperatures will continue today and tomorrow with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s during the day and dropping to the lower to mid 60s overnight.
Several locations running a bit warmer than forecast, but current trends should still keep this mornings lows within forecast ranges. Key Messages: * Strong ridge of high pressure brings dry and steadily warming temperatures to eastern Kentucky through the end of the week. * Conditions favor good ridge valley temperature splits this morning and again late tonight into early Thursday. The models agree that a strong ridge of high pressure will remain in place through the end of the week. This ridge will be nearly overhead the whole, and will provide conditions quite favorable for well defined ridge valley temperature differences both early this morning and again late tonight into early Thursday morning. Scattered high level clouds might move across the area tonight and Thursday, but should not hinder the ridge valley temperature split tonight.
This is in response to weak upper disturbances traversing through the upper ridge across the C and E US. This ridge will remain in place for the short term.
Highs remain in the low 60s on Thursday, with morning lows in the 30s and 40s the next couple of nights.
Ceilings could temporarily shift between MVFR and VFR as the low clouds stream through.
High to mid-level clouds are progged to return overnight and could result in overnight temps ending up a few degrees warmer than the current forecast, but thinking there will be enough clear pockets to still drop temps into the upper 20s to low 30s. The two areas of high pressure will eventually merge with each other over the eastern Great Lakes and then gradually shift eastward on Thursday resulting in similar conditions to today.
Radar is showing showers continuing in northern California, and satellite is showing clouds spreading north over the region from the upper low off the coast of central California. As this upper low continues to move south today the showers will move south with it, moving out of the region by late afternoon.
627 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 Dry high pressure lingers over the region into the weekend and maintains above normal temperatures.
907 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 High pressure building into our area will allow for dry conditions that will last through the rest of the week.
627 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 Cool and dry conditions with lighter winds are expected through the remainder of the week as high pressure builds into and over the local area.
530 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2023 Key Messages: * No impactful weather is expected during the short-term period Discussion: Early-morning GOES-17 water vapor imagery depicts a wound-up and seemingly cut-off low pressure system off the northern coast of California between the Polar jet racing into British Colombia and the subtropical jet arcing toward the southwestern United States. With temperatures running some 10 degrees warmer this morning compared to yesterday morning, high temperatures today will be similarly 10 degrees warmer and in the low to mid 40s. Tomorrow will be decidedly cloudy and marked by temperatures in the low to mid 40s. As a subtle upper-level low-amplitude short- wavelength trough currently located near the Four Corners region approaches the Great Lakes Thursday afternoon, cloud depths will grow and become sufficiently deep to support a few spits of sprinkles, particularly by sunset.
650 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 (Today through Thursday) As the ridge of high pressure progresses settles into the southeastern US, it will initiate a moderate warming trend as the wind flow shifts northeasterly today. The afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 70s across South Florida, with overnight lows trending warmer into the upper 50s to mid-60s.
541 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2023 (Today and tonight) A short wave trough was currently over the area early this morning bringing mid and high level cloud cover. As this initial short wave moves northeast of the area later this morning, weak short wave ridging and subsidence will take its place. However, the next short wave trough will approach from the same region this evening. Overnight temperatures tonight will be warmer with the increase in low level moisture.
915 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 Dry high pressure lingers over the region into the weekend and maintains above normal temperatures.
932 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 High pressure will prevail through the rest of the week. Dry high pressure will remain in control today and will drive a persistent north to northeast wind. Tonight: Lows tonight may run just a touch warmer than early this morning, but still in the upper 20s to lower 30s away from the coast, upper 30s to around 40 along the coast. A large area of high pressure will settle over the eastern CONUS and become the dominant pattern through the short-term period. Aloft, the axis of a low amplitude ridge will slide across the eastern U.
645 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 High pressure building into our area will allow for dry conditions that will last through the rest of the week.
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over the entire Eastern US early this morning. with pronounced ridging extending thru the Western Great Lakes region. Upstream weak/moisture-starved cold front now extends from low pressure centered over James Bay to the north shore of Lake Superior into far Northern Minnesota. Southern tip of this weak/moisture-starved cold front will clip Northern Michigan this morning. Large area of strong Canadian high pressure will track eastward thru Ontario in the wake of this front. Low level flow will shift to the E/NE across our CWA behind the cold front as the high center tracks well north of our state. very marginal over-lake instability and very shallow low level moisture behind the cold front should preclude the development of any lake-induced precip off of Lake Huron.
551 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Flow aloft has transitioned to southwesterly as yesterday's ridge continues its eastward progression along the Gulf Coast, and a trough continues to deepen off of California's coast. Despite falling heights ahead of the trough, the trend of above normal temperatures continues today, with highs this afternoon progged to top out in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees for most and middle to upper 70s along the Rio Grande.
513 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2023 Seasonally cool and dry conditions will prevail for the next several days as high pressure dominates much of the eastern U. By the end of the week, a slow moving cold front will approach, marking the start of a wet and unsettled holiday weekend.
222 AM MST Wed Dec 20 2023 Weak southwest flow over the region will result in some isolated snow showers over the high country in the Absaroka/Beartooth ranges through this evening.
(Today through Thursday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA today.
510 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level low, currently in the far eastern Pacific and off the California coast, will move south today, and then east in the general direction of the northern Baja region tonight. Our area will be in southwest flow aloft, well out ahead of this low.
633 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 High pressure will prevail through the rest of the week. Overnight analysis reveals a somewhat blocky pattern across NOAM with a southern stream cut-off low over the CA coast and downstream ridging through the central and eastern CONUS. high temperatures today will range from the lower to middle 50s. Lows tonight may run just a touch warmer than early this morning, but still in the upper 20s to lower 30s away from the coast. A large area of high pressure will settle over the eastern CONUS and become the dominant pattern through the short-term period. Aloft, the axis of a low amplitude ridge will slide across the eastern U.
VFR above 5000 ft continues this afternoon and evening as a cold front drops from the northern Great Lakes into SE Mi. Already light winds further weak through the day as this high is loses cohesion as a result of interaction with a stronger anticyclone rapidly building across northern Ontario/Quebec. A weak backdoor cold front will drop across SE MI late this evening into tonight as a result of the this secondary high building over the Great Lakes.
243 AM MST Wed Dec 20 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Currently A large trough exist over the eastern half of Canada and the eastern third of the CONUS while a ridge runs up north up the high plains of the CONUS and crests over central Alberta. A weak trough has formed over the North American coast from the Panhandle of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest and then turns of shore terminating in a nearly closed low off the coast of California.
1124 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level low, currently in the far eastern Pacific and off the California coast, will move south today, and then east in the general direction of the northern Baja region tonight. Our area will be in southwest flow aloft, well out ahead of this low.
At the lower levels, a persistent onshore flow will also be bringing in additional moisture.
/SEC (Today through Thursday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA today.
Lower end rain chances will continue, however, tomorrow afternoon there will be ample moisture available in the low, mid, and upper levels.
1233 PM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 High pressure will prevail through the rest of the week. Dry high pressure will remain in control today and will drive a persistent north to northeast wind. Tonight: Lows tonight may run just a touch warmer than early this morning, but still in the upper 20s to lower 30s away from the coast, upper 30s to around 40 along the coast. A large area of high pressure will settle over the eastern CONUS and become the dominant pattern through the short-term period. Aloft, the axis of a low amplitude ridge will slide across the eastern U.
A ridging pattern is taking hold upstairs at 500mb, so temps will steadily increase from now into the weekend with highs reaching into the low 60s by the weekend.
The thicker cirrostratus likely won't arrive in time to stunt nocturnal radiational cooling to a notable degree, and thus, this afternoon's low-mid 40s temperatures are likely to end up falling into the low 30s across most of our forecast area tonight amidst light/calm winds. While this will inhibit diurnal heating a good bit, light southeasterly winds on the equatorward side of a weak, northward-lifting warm front should help bring mid 40s temperatures back to locations south of I-80 tomorrow afternoon with locations north of the warm front likely to have tomorrow's temperatures top out closer to 40F.
1159 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Flow aloft has transitioned to southwesterly as yesterday's ridge continues its eastward progression along the Gulf Coast, and a trough continues to deepen off of California's coast. Despite falling heights ahead of the trough, the trend of above normal temperatures continues today, with highs this afternoon progged to top out in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees for most and middle to upper 70s along the Rio Grande.
210 PM EST Wed Dec 20 2023 High pressure will be in place across the region today into tomorrow, with mild temperatures expected through the weekend.
Temperatures are climbing into the lower 60s across the majority of location with abundant mid to high level clouds over the region.