Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
300 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Rain will end today as low pressure exits the region. Weak high pressure will return dry weather to the area later today through Thursday morning.
A cold front is progged to move through the region this evening. Additionally, depending on the thickness of the haze/smoke could affect the high temperatures tonight and tomorrow. This will bring in the cooler air inland with temperatures in the mid 60s.
330 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 The departure of a low pressure area into New England will allow precipitation to decrease this morning with generally dry conditions by afternoon. High pressure building across the Ohio Valley will provide dry and seasonable weather tonight into midday Thursday before the next frontal system brings a chance of storms late in the day. A mid-level low will slide across the Lower Great Lakes today while ridging builds into the Upper Midwest. High pressure will provide mostly clear skies and light winds across much of the local area tonight. At the start of the period, the upper level closed low located over New England continues to slowly wobble east/northeast with the ILN CWA located under west/northwesterly flow.
207 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will move east to New England by Thursday. This low may trigger showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. Expect mid and high clouds to increase tonight as high pressure weakens over the area and a low pressure system grazes us to the north. Wednesday night a short wave passes through the base of the eastern long wave trough across the Virginia/North Carolina border.
The latest HRRR shows the highest potential for smoke making it to the surface being over our northeastern counties into west central MN this afternoon through Thursday. This will be while the 500mb ridge builds across the Northern Plains in between lows over southern Saskatchewan/northwestern MT and the New England states.
(Today through Thursday) The 500mb ridge builds through the short term and allows the heat to bake Deep South Texas.
Wed thru Thurs, mean Wrly H500 flow wl reside over the Mid-South as a cutoff upper low meanders over the Great Lakes/Midwest Region.
358 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Key Messages: - A noticeable increase in smoke aloft for the next few days with some smoke mixing down to the surface this afternoon as a cold front moves across the forecast area from northeast to southwest. TODAY: SMOKEY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES Current water vapor satellite imagery shows drier air spreading southeast across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin as the upper-level trough responsible for our cooler stretch of weather the last few days continues to slide to the east. This afternoon a backdoor cold front moves southwest across the forecast area providing a mechanism for mix- down of smoke to the surface. Visibility reductions are also possible if smoke mixes down into the lower layers of the atmosphere.
Weak ridging will move in today and with light winds and clearing skies through the afternoon, temperatures are expected to warm to near or slightly below normal in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Tonight, the ridge will be overhead and light surface winds will turn to the south southeast.
346 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Stacked low pressure system is now centered over Lake Erie with relatively drier air now wrapping around the system southwestward into southern MI. The lows will continue pulling away to the east today with ridging over the Plains generally building east into the Great Lakes. So expectations are for a dry day with a fair amount of sun which allows the high temps to rebound back into mid 70s this afternoon. Left exit region of the 100 knot jet will pass over the area Thursday afternoon while a surface cold front sweeps through with the compact strong vort max passing just west and south of the local area. Still signs are there with favorable upper level dynamics and the cold front at a favorable time of day.
1218 AM PDT Wed Jun 14 2023 A passing cold front is bringing breezy and gusty conditions tonight through Wednesday and more seasonal temperatures for the second half of the week before an incoming trough for the weekend.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Now fully occluded low pressure working its way east across southeast Ontario early this morning. What's left of once well organized Atlantic moisture feed continues to wrap back west on the western periphery of this low. Dry conditions prevail south of the big bridge under partly to mostly cloudy skies. A seasonably cool night, with widespread lows by early this morning expected to range in the lower and middle 40s. Low pressure will continue to pivot off to the east, reaching vicinity New England by early Thursday morning. Core of coldest temperature anomalies exit east as low pressure does the same.
The Ozarks remained in a northwesterly/northerly flow pattern today with a strong, persistent upper level low over the Great Lakes region and a developing Ridge over the west. Synoptic models do show a weak wave or area of low pressure sliding through the flow across the plains which may provide enough energy for a shower or two in far southwestern Missouri of southeastern Kansas. Overnight lows will again be unseasonably cool with lows in the lower 50s in the eastern Ozarks to around 60 degrees along and west of I-49. Upper level ridging will begin to makes its way east during the day Wednesday which should allow the weak wave to move east as well. The upper level ridge will move over the area Thursday allowing for ample sunshine and temperatures warming into the middle to upper 80s.
Convection overall would gradually wane this evening with showers and thunderstorms moving into central and eastern Nevada for Wednesday as a drier northwest flow behind a cold front inhibits convection across northern Nevada. West to northwest winds will increase Wednesday afternoon as the cold front starts to move through.
With mid-level ridging in place across the GOM and an eastward moving cyclone east of the Great Lakes, W-NW flow is in place across Arkansas and surrounding areas.
Discussion: Early this morning, the upper level low east of the area was still impacting the area as midlevel clouds rotated across the from the east. Ridging is expected to build into the area from the west today. At 00z Thu, the ridge axis is forecast to be over central ND extending southward towards central NE. [Key Messages] 1) Dry & very warm through the rest of the work week 2) Shower/storm chances this weekend [Discussion] Dry weather with a continuation of wildfire smoke aloft is expected to start the period as ridging builds into the area from the central Plains. Thankfully, dewpoints are forecast to remain in the low 50s, making for low humidity. A backdoor cold front will arrive late Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours, bringing drier air and cooler temperatures in time to close out the work week.
However, another upper level short wave trough is expected to move eastward through Colorado and northern New Mexico this evening. On Thursday a stronger short wave trough will plow through the northern part of the ridge that is over the Panhandles today. A cold front is expected to push southward across the Panhandles late Thursday night behind the short wave trough which will be moving into north-central and northeastern Oklahoma by then.
500mb heights will be rising across the Quad State Wednesday into Thursday, as a ridge builds eastward toward the region. At the surface, high pressure will settle over the region Wednesday and will remain in place through Thursday. A final disturbance in the retreating cyclonic flow to our northeast will try to bring a backdoor cold front into the region Thursday or Thursday night.
An upstream trof over Hudson Bay was helping to pick up the large upper low that brought the rain yesterday. The upper low had already moved east and was over and just north of Lake Erie early this morning. A fast moving system behind the large upper low that moved through the area yesterday will race south from Hudson Bay and bring chances for showers and storms along an associated cold front Thursday across the forecast area. Otherwise, the large upper level blocking level pattern will prevent fast movement of systems over North America (and is generally a low confidence pattern).
At the surface, a trough associated with the low will be draped across the Eastern Seaboard through the Southeast, with most of Florida under the influence of the western periphery of low-level ridging. At the surface, the mostly southerly flow will allow for inland penetration of both seabreezes which should boost dewpoints a bit in the lower-troposphere. However, the warmer members are generally drier and the cooler are more moist, so as far as apparent temperatures are concerned it's mostly a wash with a rather low spread as far as possible maximum apparent temperatures are concerned. Along the east coast, Palm Beach county will have the highest rain chances each afternoon/evening.
Aside from the smoke and haze, the dry weather pattern continues with warm high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s today (cooler by Lake Superior). A more pronounced lake breeze may develop on Thursday, spreading inland a ways and keeping temperatures a bit cooler. The weather is expected to stay dry as upper level ridging remains in place.
Surface analysis depicts high pressure over the western and central subtropical Atlantic with a ridge extending westward through the northern Bahamas and Florida peninsula into the central Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, the lower to mid level ridge has built westward into our area during the past 24 hours, bringing us into anticylonic flow with rising heights. The 00Z Key West sounding reflects this increased ridging, with a couple of inversions and substantial dry layers in the lower/mid levels, and PW down to 1. The primary weather concern will be heat for the rest of the work week, as the lower to mid level Atlantic ridge continues to build across our area.
Near the surface, an area of high pressure extends from the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of eastern Colorado. Warmer temperatures are likely today as a building upper level ridge lifts northeast into the Western High Plains, helping decrease cloud cover while H85 temperatures also increase somewhat. Expect afternoon highs pushing the lower/mid 80s(F) with lows tonight back down into mid/upper 50s(F) to possibly the lower 60s(F) in some locations. In response to the approaching system, lee side troughing will develop setting up a south-southeasterly flow across western Kansas and tapping into increased moisture to the south. An ongoing warming trend continues into Thursday as prevailing southerlies pull warmer air into western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures up around to a little above 20C.
At the surface, weak high pressure continues to promote subsidence and largely-clear skies. Overnight into tomorrow, upper-level ridging will amplify across the central United States. Fortunately, we stay on the eastern edge of the ridge axis and remain under weak northwest flow. Westerly winds within the boundary layer will cause moisture return to be largely unimpressive and we're unlikely to see dew points above the low 60s (per the 00Z HREF) across the region.
210 AM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Upper ridge moves to the east this morning and flow aloft turns to the SW today. A cold front will move in from the west as an upper low moves into the Canadian and Montana Rockies. A few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms have already developed early this morning over central Montana with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms moving east across the continental divide with the cold front. The cold front exits NE Montana around midnight tonight taking the storms with it. Upper low move NE into Saskatchewan on Thursday leaving NE Montana in a dry slot with cooler temperatures.
Water vapor channel satellite imagery shows deep closed low centered over Lake Erie early this morning, and moving eastward. This seems to be generally holding west of the channel of flow that's on the periphery of the departing closed low with more northeast-to-southwest trajectories. So, until the low moves further east, we shouldn't see substantial smoke/haze issues here.
This is wedged between a strong upper low over the Great Lakes and a ridge over Mexico. Through the short term, the upper low is expected to slowly nudge its way EWD toward NY which the upper ridge changes little over Mexico.
Highs on Thursday will within seasonal normal value ranges as upper level ridging influences to our west try to sneak into our area by late Thursday afternoon hours.
346 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Low pressure will bring periods of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms back to the area Wednesday.
Aloft the main upper level low is pushing east over the eastern Great Lakes and northeast CONUS. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.
Expect highs Wednesday in the lower to mid 80s with some 90s back in the forecast for Thursday. This feature has been shifting southeastward as it rotates around an upper level low centered over the eastern Great Lakes. 37 A closed upper low will continue to slowly wobble east across the Great Lakes through midweek, and with its exit, precip chances are expected to shift to our east while warmer temperatures start to work back in from the west. A weak trailing trough will settle across central Illinois Wednesday morning resulting in a wind shift to the NW/N and increasing mid level cloud cover. Temps will warm into the lower to mid 80s Wednesday afternoon.
Near the surface, an area of high pressure extends from the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of eastern Colorado. Warmer temperatures are likely today as a building upper level ridge lifts northeast into the Western High Plains, helping decrease cloud cover while H85 temperatures also increase somewhat. Expect afternoon highs pushing the lower/mid 80s(F) with lows tonight back down into mid/upper 50s(F) to possibly the lower 60s(F) in some locations.
Areas temps are all in the low to mid 70s along and north of I-20 with much warmer temps to the south. So for this update we trimmed out severe wording where cleared from the watch and added fog to the cooler areas north of I-20, which have all seen some heavy rain at times late today.
CAD Periods of rain and thunderstorms will continue for the next several days as temperatures trend warmer.
An U/L trough will gradually develop over the Florida peninsula during the next several days, with an U/L low eventually cutting- off over the southeast U. As the U/L troughing develops over the southeast U.
1101 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half of the week as our air will be moving in from the northwest. Approaching low pressure is expected to become vertically stacked by morning as it moves across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes region. The upper low will finally shift east into southern Quebec/New York. By Wednesday afternoon much of the convection will have shifted eastward across the ridges to the east. The low will quicken pace Wednesday night through Thursday as it rides into the Canadian Maritimes.
1245 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Message: - Dangerous heat expected to continue across the region - Excessive Heat Warning in effect through this evening across the western Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains - Heat Advisory today and tomorrow with the potential for an Extreme Heat Warning The synoptic pattern remains unchanged with a ridge over the Southern Plains and the mid-level high over Mexico has nudged closer to South Texas. Tomorrow, am expecting it to be warmer temperature-wise as warm air advection continues. A reminder to please take the proper pre-cautions as we experience this high heat and humidity.
Drier and slightly warmer conditions will follow into Wednesday with highs in the 70s. Latest satellite water vapor channels depict an expansive mid- upper low centered over central MI. This precip shield will blossom in response to favorable left exit upper jet support from a ~90 kt 300 mb jet pinwheeling south through the western Great Lakes, likely enhancing the low-mid level fgen/defo response with a smaller scale sfc reflection tracking southeast through srn MI/nrn OH. The organized rain will depart from nw to se btw 4-8z tonight, leaving dry (maybe a few lingering sprinkles/clouds in the AM) and slightly warmer conditions as the stacked low releases east into the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast.
1145 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Vertically-stacked low pressure continues to very slowly track eastward out of Lower Michigan late this evening. Another area of showers has developed along the far NW periphery of deeper moisture on the back side of the low and is now impacting portions of Eastern Lake Superior and Central Upper Michigan. Low temps will again drop into the low to mid 40s. 998mb low pressure is over eastern upper MI, while a closed 500mb low is drifting east from the Thumb. Overnight, this outermost rain band will try to return eastward along with the parent upper low. The cutoff upper low that has led to mostly cloudy and cool and in some cases showery weather over the last few days will finally depart to the east Wednesday into Thursday eventually stalling out across New England.
--------------------------------------------------------------------- Today: Another warm and quiet day ahead! Taking a look across the area, mostly clear and quiet conditions continue as wildfire smoke continues to be transported into the area via the departing closed low over the Great Lakes Region. With upper level ridging aloft and persistent ridging at the surface, expect winds to be light and variable for most of the day as temperatures mix out into the upper 80s to low 90s across the area.
The cooler temperatures today can be attributed not so much to the front, but the absence of a significant downslope warming component.
438 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move east to New England by Thursday. Temperatures will continue to remain relatively cool for June, favoring the cooler side of normal. Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move east to New England by Thursday. With low pressure to our north, clouds will be the thickest across the mountains. Temperatures will continue to remain relatively cool for June favoring the cooler side of normal.
632 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Key Messages: - A noticeable increase in smoke aloft for the next few days with some smoke mixing down to the surface this afternoon as a cold front moves across the forecast area from northeast to southwest. TODAY: SMOKEY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES Current water vapor satellite imagery shows drier air spreading southeast across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin as the upper-level trough responsible for our cooler stretch of weather the last few days continues to slide to the east. This afternoon a backdoor cold front moves southwest across the forecast area providing a mechanism for mix- down of smoke to the surface. Visibility reductions are also possible if smoke mixes down into the lower layers of the atmosphere.
SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 7000 FEET NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL PARK THIS A relatively cold low pressure circulation, with origins in the Gulf of Alaska, will be present over the Northern Rockies through Thursday. The center of the low pressure circulation is expected to be over Glacier National Park this morning, allowing snow levels to drop to around 7000 feet.
Upper troughing over the Midwest will weaken and shift east into upper New England, reducing the pressure gradient and magnitude of northwesterly flow aloft over the next 36 hours. /16/ (Thursday Night through Wednesday) By Thursday night, the influence of an expanding upper-level ridge to our W/SW will become more pronounced but still not enough to fend off convection.
As the well advertised omega pattern continues to slowly progress eastward, the trailing trough will move closer to the CWA today from the northwest. The trough will contine to nudge eastward as we move into Thursday. A weak cold front associated with the trough looks to push through the region on Thursday afternoon/evening. The long wave trough over the West splits on Thursday night with the northern branch continuing to track eastward across central Canada.
Aloft, a weak troughing pattern continues across the Southeast U. However, PoPs will once again creep into areas north of Orlando ahead of sunrise, as a vigorous mid-level trough digs into northern Florida driving an MCS southward across north-central FL late.
An upper level trough passing to the north has helped to clear the skies over most of northern California and southern Oregon early this morning. Northwest flow behind the trough will help to guide cool, dry air over the area today.
409 AM MST Wed Jun 14 2023 Temperatures will trend warmer through the rest of week towards normal as ridging slowly builds across the region. Longwave troughing remains draped across western CONUS as sub- tropical ridging across northern Mexico will begin to impinge on the forecast area over the next several days.
1020 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Ridging in wake of an upper low will bring dry weather through Thursday morning.
316 AM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023 The PacNW trough is beginning to shift our pattern around across the state today. As the trough moves to the northeast into Canada, a weak front will move across the regions east of the Divide, bringing some slightly cooler temperatures tonight into Thursday.
336 AM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Upper ridging remains across the northern Plains this morning, in between an upper low over the NE CONUS and another developing low over the northern Rockies. However, as the northern Rockies low marches forward this morning, the ridge will quickly break down. Overnight linger showers/storms are expected late tonight, then storms will redevelop quite early Thursday morning as another wave crosses the CWA and the cold front drifts eastward.
412 AM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023 The PacNW trough is beginning to shift our pattern around across the state today. As the trough moves to the northeast into Canada, a weak front will move across the regions east of the Divide, bringing some slightly cooler temperatures tonight into Thursday.
How much further west this lower level smoke travels is uncertain as surface winds are expected to turn to the southeast later this morning.
A trough of low pressure will exit the region today with high pressure rebuilding into the region for dry and warmer conditions on Thursday.
948 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 The departure of a low pressure area into New England will allow precipitation to decrease this morning with generally dry conditions by afternoon. High pressure building across the Ohio Valley will provide dry and seasonable weather tonight into midday Thursday before the next frontal system brings a chance of storms late in the day. Low pressure continues to move eastward this morning, with weak radar echoes finally exiting our fa. High pressure will provide mostly clear skies and light winds across much of the local area tonight. At the start of the period, the upper level closed low located over New England continues to slowly wobble east/northeast with the ILN CWA located under west/northwesterly flow.
613 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 (Today through Thursday) The 500mb ridge builds through the short term and allows the heat to bake Deep South Texas.
Temperatures will trend warmer through the rest of week towards normal as ridging slowly builds across the region. Longwave troughing remains draped across western CONUS as sub- tropical ridging across northern Mexico will begin to impinge on the forecast area over the next several days.
601 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 (Today and tonight) Expect another hot and dry day today with continued high pressure and zonal flow aloft over West Central Texas. High temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s in the Big Country this afternoon, with warmer temperatures to the south reaching into the mid 90s to near 103.