Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
While this is certainly possible, none of the high-resolution guidance indicates this potential and the latest HREF keeps most new development well east of our area.
Dry conditions, warmer high temperatures and normal afternoon breezes are expected through Monday.
Ongoing showers have kept the southwestern counties much cooler while Bluegrass counties rebounded back into the low 70s. As of 15Z surface analysis, a center of high pressure is located off to the southeast of the forecast area.
737 PM EDT Sun May 7 2023 Dry weather associated with high pressure conditions will persist on through today and tonight as high level ridging influences the pattern from out of the west and low level ridging associated with drier air continues to extend in from out of the east. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 80s for most inland areas with max temps reaching up into the mid to upper 80s for areas along and west of the I-75 corridor.
In addition, some drying and warming is expected through the lower levels. A ridge across Florida will maintain moderate to fresh breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period. A slow downward trend is expected as the ridge both weakens and settles slightly southwards.
Areas to the east of the line will stay a warmer more moist environment with lows settling in the low to mid 60s.
Dry weather associated with high pressure conditions will persist on through today and tonight as high level ridging influences the pattern from out of the west and low level ridging associated with drier air continues to extend in from out of the east. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 80s for most inland areas with max temps reaching up into the mid to upper 80s for areas along and west of the I-75 corridor.
949 PM EDT Sun May 7 2023 Mainly dry weather continues through tonight as high pressure remains near the East Coast.
Clouds will slowly diminish from north to south with a northerly flow building out of high pressure. Min temps will be in the 40s, except in the low to mid 30s east of Lake Ontario due to low PWAT and more ridging with light winds.
852 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 A weakening upper ridge combined with weak warm air advection and a moderately unstable airmass is resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the MS River. After midweek, a cold front is expected to stall over the area that will likely increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms even more.
Isolated showers were moving northeast in the lower Treasure Valley and West Central Mountain zones as of 830 PM MDT. The setup for strong thunderstorms looks good tomorrow, as an upper level low will move into southeast Oregon late in the day. An upper level low will move in from the west Monday afternoon, with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. The highest chance of thunderstorms will be across SW Idaho late Monday afternoon and evening.
803 PM EDT Sun May 7 2023 A wave of low pressure will track south of the region tonight bringing a few rounds of showers. High pressure builds into the region with a frontal boundary to our south for the first half the week.
Drier and warmer conditions are then expected during mid to late week.
A cold front will pass across western Kansas tonight. Expect lows mainly in the 50s, with cooler highs in the 80s Monday.
517 PM MDT Sun May 7 2023 Main forecast challenge in the near term is identifying the corridor with the highest potential for one or two severe storms this afternoon and evening.
206 PM PDT Sun May 7 2023 Drier and warmer conditions along with breezy southwest winds will prevail this afternoon ahead of an incoming low pressure for Monday.
819 PM EDT Sun May 7 2023 Some showers will clip southern portions of the area tonight as low pressure passes to our south. This low will be followed by a dry cold front passing Monday.
516 PM EDT Sun May 7 2023 A wave of low pressure will track south of the region tonight bringing a few rounds of showers. High pressure builds into the region with a frontal boundary to our south for the first half the week.
758 PM EDT Sun May 7 2023 Plenty of dry air around this evening with latest surface analysis showing high pressure centered in the southwest Atlantic, which will continue to slowly sink southward overnight into Monday as a surge of lower PWATs pushes into the region. This should favor clear skies overnight after the cu field from today continues to decrease with lows dropping to the low 60s across the Nature Coast and interior with mid to upper 60s for coastal areas.
As the activity moves south of Hwy 54 it will weaken as it runs into the more capped air mass and not with the low level shear flow across much of the area, but should be able to maintain themselves a little better east of Hwy 63. An upper level trough will move across the Plains today and a surface boundary will push south across the area this afternoon and evening. An upper level ridge will remain over the region through much of the week with warmer conditions as highs in the 80s occur each day.
351 AM EDT Mon May 8 2023 High pressure over Hudson Bay will nose to the south into our forecast area today. any leftover showers over the Southern Tier will give way to clearing from the north as high pressure will settle over the Upper Great Lakes.
A cold front will pass across western Kansas tonight. Expect lows mainly in the 50s, with cooler highs in the 80s Monday. The high plains will be under an upper level level ridge Tuesday as a trough develops over the West Coast. Despite the ridging, an effective frontal boundary will be located somewhere across the central or southern plains.
As we go into the afternoon, mid level ridging will pump up and subsidence will drop coverage of showers and storms to 20 percent or less. Looking ahead to Tuesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast as a cold front drops across the area. The south half of the area will have more time to heat up, so some strong storms may occur in our southern counties before the cold front passes in the afternoon.
Locally, the area has been influenced by entrance region dynamics that have more or less persisted since the gargantuan upper level low/trough from last week. The entrance region has been able to regenerate on the forward flank to the upper level ridge in a corridor of northwest flow. It is expected to lift or burn off eventually, but temperatures today will range from the lower 60s near the Lakes to around 70 degrees inland. By this afternoon a new upper level jet packet will carve through the Upper Mississippi River Valley causing cyclonic flow/planetary vorticity to flatten the ridge overhead.
(Today and tonight) A cold front is moving into northern Oklahoma early this morning which will probably move south a little farther before stalling out across northern and western Oklahoma. Low-level temperatures will be warmer in the southwest near the dryline, so the cap will effectively be weaker than farther north. The primary signal along the warm front will be farther south today, so storm chances are less likely than the past couple of days across our Texas zones and southwest Oklahoma, but it is still worth some low POPs near the dryline in our southwestern counties.
24 (Tonight through Tuesday night) A subtropical ridge remains parked over the northwest Atlantic which is keeping a generally southeast flow in place locally. Aloft weak ridging is over the gulf with modest upper disturbances riding over the ridge across the gulf states.
Although, recycled airmass moderation theory, and probably a bit more sun than clouds compared to yesterday, suggests more places will warm a few degrees higher and tip the scales into the low 70s for high temps today.
209 AM EDT Mon May 8 2023 High pressure over Hudson Bay will nose to the south into our forecast area on Monday.
A cold front that looks to now be reinforced by outflow extends from the OK Panhandle to north of Wichita and into northeast KS.
By the end of the week, a ridge of high pressure will build over the region, allowing temperatures to climb to above-normal levels. Breezy conditions will persist across portions of the area again this afternoon as the trough of low pressure that has dominated the weather over the past several days lifts northeast out of the area. The highest winds through this evening are expected in the usual wind belts across the western Mojave Desert, where gusts to 30mph will be possible. Widespread gusts of 30mph are likely across the southern half of the region, with gusts to 45mph possible in the higher elevations.
Showers and thunderstorms likely late tonight into Tuesday morning with the passage of a cold front. The northern half of the area, nearer to the low pressure system tracking across northern OH into PA, will have likely PoPs during that time period. Behind this trough/front passage, we will have stabilizing conditions and dry air advection through the midlevels, and thus a decreasing trend to PoPs through the afternoon.
Highs today are expected to be cooler with temperatures ranging from the middle 50s across central and east-central Wisconsin to around 60 across north-central Wisconsin. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the lower to middle 40s. High pressure will build in across the western Great Lakes region on Tuesday with some sunshine expected as dry air advects into the area. Therefore fair weather cumulus clouds are all that is expected as the high tracks across the region on Tuesday. Highs Tuesday will return to above normal levels; mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s with cooler temperatures by the lakeshore.
1241 AM CDT Mon May 8 2023 (Tonight through Monday) The upper ridge has really flattened out early this evening with westerly winds aloft. The highest pops will be between 45-60 and will monitor the western convection for potential further increases. The low level boundaries overnight and differential heating will determine the highest rain chance locations on Monday. Lower pressure will remain across the Central Plains while high pressure will be positioned well off the Southeast Atlantic Coast. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s and will be highly dependent on cloud cover and more precise timing of the arrival and development of showers and thunderstorm activity.
- RCG 553 PM MDT Sun May 7 2023 (08/00Z TAF Period) Scattered showers and thunderstorms diminish this evening with the loss of diurnal heating; however, showers and some mountain snow will lingering into the overnight hours along the higher terrain of the Continental Divide over the Elk Horn and Big Belt Mountains.
Expect high temperatures this afternoon to rise into the upper 80s (maybe a few spots of 90 degrees where the sun peaks out), but high temperatures on Tuesday will only get into the low to mid 80s due to the increased precipitation coverage. Overnight lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the low to mid 70s.
1209 AM EDT Mon May 8 2023 Dry weather associated with high pressure conditions will persist on through today and tonight as high level ridging influences the pattern from out of the west and low level ridging associated with drier air continues to extend in from out of the east. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 80s for most inland areas with max temps reaching up into the mid to upper 80s for areas along and west of the I-75 corridor. Prevailing flow will shift about to become more out of the west as high pressure ridging from out of the east shifts southward to be more over the Florida peninsula.
1003 PM PDT Sun May 7 2023 Start of the week will see the highest chances for more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. A warming trend will take over for the second half of the week as high pressure builds into the region.
CAMs then seem to bring a surge of increasing instability ahead of the low as it tracks into the area this afternoon and early evening. Some clearing could take place just ahead of the low which would aid in the warm front mixing north and increasing the instability further. Showers and storms may linger in the east during the evening, but everything should be done by 6Z with cooler and drier air starting to arrive.
1143 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 A weakening upper ridge combined with weak warm air advection and a moderately unstable airmass is resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the MS River. After midweek, a cold front is expected to stall over the area that will likely increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms even more.
After early morning temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s, mostly clear skies and light winds will allow the sun to warm us up into the 70s by the late morning hours, getting close to 80's for areas south of the highway 20 corridor by the late afternoon hours. For now have kept afternoon highs in the lower to mid 70s, though if precipitation clears out earlier than expected we could easily see areas south of I-90 jump up into the lower 80s.
A cold front/outflow boundary continues to move across the FA early this morning. This will result in slightly cooler highs across southwest Kansas today. The winds will eventually shift to the SE/S as a high pressure center continues to move east across the greater region. Will keep the highest pops in across the northern and northeastern zones to account for this early morning activity.
Cold front will move through the area this afternoon with cooler high temperatures today. The cold front is forecast to exit the area fully by 21 UTC with some lifting of the clouds behind the front. High pressure will make slowly southward progress into the area Monday night into Tuesday morning with clouds lingering across the area. Ridging and near normal temperatures are expected to start the period. Discussion: H5 ridging builds into the area before a shrtwv moves into the central CONUS at the end of the weekend.
(Today through Tuesday) High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will slowly weaken over the Western Atlantic waters while remaining nearly stationary. Highs each day will be in the lower 90s except mid to upper 80s along the east coast metro areas.
A weak frontal boundary will approach the region from the north today with showers/thunderstorm chances increasing across NE OK/ NW AR by this evening into the overnight hours as the low level jet begins to strengthen.
High pressure will be gradually building southward from Hudson Bay into northern Ontario. Influx of drier air from the north had already cleared out the low clouds faster than expected in northern and central sections of the forecast area.
452 AM EDT Mon May 8 2023 A cold front will exit the coast this morning. High pressure will then build across the region through mid-week.
429 AM EDT Mon May 8 2023 High pressure over Hudson Bay will nose to the south into our forecast area today. any leftover showers over the Southern Tier will give way to clearing from the north as high pressure will settle over the Upper Great Lakes.
Have lowered the lows a degree or two along with introducing a small ridge to valley split, mainly for the eastern valleys. Ongoing showers have kept the southwestern counties much cooler while Bluegrass counties rebounded back into the low 70s. As of 15Z surface analysis, a center of high pressure is located off to the southeast of the forecast area.
The region remains entrenched beneath a dirty upper ridge with west to southwest surface flow.
Weak upper level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will slide east across the Florida Peninsula through the first half of the week. At the surface, the subtropical ridge axis extends from the western Atlantic across northern Florida and will drift south through the next couple of days. This ridging at the surface and aloft will keep a dry airmass in place, with limited rain chances today and Tuesday.
1227 AM CDT Mon May 8 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Recent sfc obs around the FA indicated temps in the low to mid 80s, w/ dewpoint temps hovering in the upper 60s to near 70F.
Regarding temperatures, warmer than normal temperatures will persist, especially during the overnight hours.
The threat for showers and storms continues on Tuesday as a cold front moves across the Mid-Atlantic region. High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will result in a few dry days before unsettled conditions return for the weekend. With a downsloping flow, an increase in 1000-850mb thicknesses and WAA, pushed high temperatures up a few degrees leaning toward the warmer NBM guidance.
Warmer temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected for the latter half of the week. Focus tonight shifts to an area of low pressure tracking toward PA along the stalled front. Will keep the highest PoPs across the srn half of the CWA, and broaden timing out to cover a longer period through most of the day Tues. Tuesday looks wet for the srn half to 2/3rds of the area as the wave rolls gradually thru, with the 7H/5H trough sliding only slowly across the state from N-S.
852 PM PDT Sun May 7 2023 Slightly warmer Monday, with breezy onshore winds occurring each afternoon and evening in the mountains and deserts.
500 mb upper low center is over north central Minnesota early this morning and will lift slowly north or northwest toward the MN/ND/Manitoba border by this evening. Showers are more likely to the east and north side of the upper low which would keep likey pops out of our forecast area. Warmer temps as well with highs into the 60s all areas. Ensembles and cluster analysis depict an overall SW flow with increased ridging for a brief period this week.
- Slightly cooler, but above average temperatures expected through the work week. Expect temperatures to continue to climb into the low to mid 90s by late afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates remain near dry adiabatic as southwesterly flow advects in an EML from the high Plains. The most likely scenario will be for isolated convection to further develop ahead of the upper wave along the warm front with initially isolated storms in southern Nebraska. High pressure will build into the area from the north with light north winds keeping temperatures a bit cooler and in the low to mid 80s. By Tuesday, the stalled boundary lifts north as a warm front, and increases precipitation chances once again.
(Monday through Tuesday) Some pre-dawn convection has developed early this morning invof a theta-e ridge axis from Lower Toledo Bend country across central Louisiana. Despite upper ridging aloft extending southward from the Central Plains into the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, several disturbances will move underneath the ridge over the CWA. If temps manage to get closer to 90 degrees, uncomfortable conditions could develop, as heat index values would climb into the low to possibly mid 90s.
Model guidance - including the high-res CAMs - have struggled to resolve the finer scale details of convection in the current pattern, but generally we expect for this activity to continue in a band around the US Highway 84 corridor through mid morning today before breaking up and drifting east. Late tonight, some models indicate convection along a cold front north of our region may dip into far northern parts of the forecast area. Most of the convection should begin to taper off by Tuesday evening as the ridge remains somewhat stationary over the Gulf giving us a small break from the rain.
Storms will be discrete at first but, given the low amount of shear, any merging clusters should become outflow-dominant late this evening.
In far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, development is expected along a weak frontal boundary possibly as early as late afternoon but more likely during the evening and overnight hours as the low level jet increases.
By late tonight, an area of low pressure will develop just north of the area and move very slowly east.
Total precipitation amounts will generally range anywhere from a couple hundredths up to an inch with locally higher amounts over the higher elevations of the southern Cascades.
No significant changes are required for the inherited forecast as ongoing high pressure is keeping a relatively stable air mass over the area, but will go ahead and refresh short term grids anyways. (Today through Tuesday) High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will slowly weaken over the Western Atlantic waters while remaining nearly stationary. Highs each day will be in the lower 90s except mid to upper 80s along the east coast metro areas.
Low pressure was located over northwestern Minnesota early this morning with a cold front trailing back into northern and western Iowa. High pressure was located to the north over northern Ontario and back west into the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains. A persistent band of showers was located along the US53 corridor mainly north of the Iron Range that was moving northward as it rotated around the low to the west. High pressure to our north will slowly work south into the Great Lakes region by midweek. With the Northland remaining on the western periphery of the high, chances for showers and isolated storms will persist as a ring of fire type pattern sets up. This high will turn winds more southerly by midweek allowing areas near Lake Superior to finally warm up.
1042 AM EDT Mon May 8 2023 A cold front will arrive later tonight into Tuesday to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
954 AM EDT Mon May 8 2023 A cold front will exit the coast this morning. High pressure will then build across the region through mid-week.
Cooler than normal temperatures are forecast today through Tuesday. Widespread showers this morning will decrease this afternoon, followed by drier weather and cooler temperatures and possible frost for the interior valleys tonight. A cooler air mass will allow temperatures to plummet into the mid 30's in some of the interior valleys tonight. Any shower activity will most likely need to be forced by topography and diurnal heating, though some the higher resolution guidance shows some light showers moving onto the North Coast in the developing onshore flow.
A high latitude blocking ridge over the central Canadian Provinces is creating a quasi Rex pattern with low pressure extending from the western Great Lakes region back into the main trough off the western coast of NOAM. This blocking high and the large downstream trough along the eastern NOAM coast will allow Pacific energy to begin to dig farther to the South at it arrives inland the next few days. This system will is compact and due to the blocking will rotate into the Northern Rockies once in moves inland. However the next wave will slingshot around this low and arrive to SoCal late tomorrow. With the drier and warmer air working in elevated fire concerns will arrive in the afternoon in the lower elevations and where the could be fuels susceptible to fire.
The SFC easterlies steadily back to the west aloft, painting the well stacked ridge complex.
1037 AM EDT Mon May 8 2023 Weak high pressure builds in from the northwest though tonight, A weak wave of low pressure passes to the south on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in for the second half of the week.
618 AM EDT Mon May 8 2023 A cold front will exit the coast this morning. High pressure will then build across the region through mid-week.
737 AM EDT Mon May 8 2023 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will slowly weaken over the Western Atlantic waters while remaining nearly stationary. Highs each day will be in the lower 90s except mid to upper 80s along the east coast metro areas.
Upper level analysis shows weak ridging over the Great Lakes region, with low pressure off the northern CA coast. An active weather pattern will continue for much of the week as the low off the west coast slowly tracks across the western US and eventually into the Plains mid to late week.