Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/NEW/ /Through Saturday Night/ Showers and thunderstorms associated with a passing upper trough will end from west to east overnight through Saturday morning. The severe threat has passed now that the cold front is well south of the region. The trough axis will pass to the east by midday Saturday, bringing an end to all rain chances and clearing out the clouds currently in place. Cold air advection and a strong and gusty northwest wind will yield a rather chilly night for late April with lows ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. Cold air advection Saturday will be offset by the return of the sun in the afternoon, allowing temperatures to warm into the lower 70s across the western half of the forecast area.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the region today ahead of a slow moving cold front.
1054 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Despite a recent frontal passage, we remain under a generally troffy flow pattern that will therefore subject us to its cold core of clouds/cooler temps into/thru the weekend.
448 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Weak high pressure will bring partial clearing to the area today promoting much warmer temperatures.
1042 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 An increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected over the next several hours as low pressure begins to cross into southwest LA.
1144 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) The immediate concern continues to surround the approach of a cold front, along with an associated line of strong thunderstorms, this evening. An isolated tornado, which has already been observed along the line previously, cannot be ruled out given the highly favorable shear profile. As advection brings cooler and drier air to the area, clouds should gradually clear from south to north over the course of the day.
A trough brings chances of showers to the Valley and foothills and late season snow to the Sierra Nevada. We currently have a ridge sitting over California which has helped warm temperatures to around 15 degrees above average.
633 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 (Today and tonight) As upper low slowly exits the region this morning, light showers should end across far east/southeast counties by daybreak. Northerly winds will be a little on the gusty side as mixing commences, but overall a much better day than we have seen in several days with highs mainly in the lower 70s.
Positively tilted upper trough is lumbering eastward towards the area. Ahead of the trough a front sits from northwest Arkansas into central Illinois. Stronger warm advection along a warm front over southern Arkansas is marked by a larger area of rain showers while weaker showers are developing a little closer to home. Cold front moves through Sunday leaving us in a breezy and cool pattern with gusts 20-25 mph.
A high amplitude ridge over the Western U. will be responsible for the warmup today, with warm advection occurring over the High Plains. For tonight, a weak backdoor cold front will push across the plains, but should result in little overall change to the relatively mild and dry airmass in place. Sunday through about mid week, Colorado will be on the front end of an upper ridge over the western states, set up between an upper low centered over the Great Lakes and another approaching from the northwest. Models have the ridge blocking that approaching low, which they have slowly moving south just off shore of the west coast. After a weak front tonight, Sunday will be slightly cooler then a warming trend through about mid week will bring temperatures back up 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
704 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Weak high pressure will bring partial clearing to the area today promoting much warmer temperatures.
633 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 (Today) An upper low/trough pattern continues to dive southward into the southern Plains this early Sat morning, as an attendant cold front gradually moves eastward over the Midwest region into the ARKLATEX area. Otherwise, latest model suites have both the upper trough axis and attendant cold front moving further east into the western/central Gulf states later today, with iso/sct showers/tstms spreading into parts of the area this afternoon.
A Cold front moves off the Lower Texas coast this morning with models continuing to suggest strong northwest winds developing. Besides the winds the front will usher in much drier and cooler conditions for today and tonight with temperatures recovering Sunday with surface and upper high pressure building over Texas.
Overall, rain coverage will be on the low side today. As for the rest of today, the two upper level lows that we've been talking about for the last few nights are going to bring light rain chances across the area later this afternoon. High pressure will build in Sunday, giving the winds a northerly component, thus highs will be cooler than what they have been with highs in the 60s. (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Sunday night will be cool with lows in the low 40s. For the new work week, thankfully not a whole lot to talk about other than it's going to be beautiful as the high pressure hangs around through mid-week.
416 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2023 A strong ridge of high pressure sandwiched between a closed low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and another over the Great Lakes region will dictate conditions across the forecast area this weekend. Rising 1000-500 mb thicknesses under the ridge expands eastward over the area during the period causing temperatures to rise close to 10 degrees above normal on average across eastern Utah and western Colorado by Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, expect few clouds and warmer than normal temperatures this weekend. The high pressure ridge will remain over the region through midweek according model consensus, though it will take on a decidedly negative tilt as the Pacific Northwest low slowly moves southward along the California Coast.
624 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the region today ahead of a slow moving cold front.
The axis of the upper level ridge is shifting east as an upper trough near 45N and 140W is slowly advancing east towards our area.
Regional satellite imagery shows a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over the Gulf waters ahead of an advancing cold front. There will be a brief break in coverage tonight before another round of strong storms associated with a cold front moves across the area early Sunday.
An upper low embedded within a long wave trough will be moving across our area today, bringing a round of storms and a cold front into the area. This cooler air aloft associated with the upper low and the low level cyclonic turning with the associated surface/boundary layer feature will likely be sufficient for a few briefly stronger thunderstorm cores. Even so, modest instability coupled with the low should yield scattered showers and some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Throughout the day and into the start of the work week, high pressure at the surface will build into the region.
525 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2023 A strong ridge of high pressure sandwiched between a closed low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and another over the Great Lakes region will dictate conditions across the forecast area this weekend. Rising 1000-500 mb thicknesses under the ridge expands eastward over the area during the period causing temperatures to rise close to 10 degrees above normal on average across eastern Utah and western Colorado by Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, expect few clouds and warmer than normal temperatures this weekend. The high pressure ridge will remain over the region through midweek according model consensus, though it will take on a decidedly negative tilt as the Pacific Northwest low slowly moves southward along the California Coast.
Early this morning, split flow upper troughs were across Minnesota and Oklahoma. A surface cold front was back near the Mississippi River. Meanwhile, forcing from the surface front and northern upper trough will not arrive until this afternoon. Another surge of forcing will rotate around the upper low across Wisconsin tonight. Low temperatures will be in the lower 40s once again as colder air returns with the upper low.
606 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, infrared satellite imagery showed that skies were clear and temperatures have dropped into the low 50s to upper 40s as post-frontal cool air moves in from the north. Water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper trough over East Texas (with storms ahead of the trough axis in far east and south Texas) continuing to move east. Today, the upper level trough will continue moving east while cool northwest flow aloft an,d at the surface will strengthen across the region.
An unseasonably strong 90 knot jet streak diving down the back side of a 500mb trough will cause the upper trough to close off as an upper low this afternoon. The upper low is then forecast to remain over Wisconsin through Sunday. Jet energy rotating around the upper low will produce upper diffluence and periods of strong lift. Lows tonight will be several degrees cooler then usual.
949 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023 A vigorous cold front will push through the area this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms.
Today and Sunday: Water vapor imagery this morning shows a trough containing two separate upper systems affecting the Gulf Coast and the Northeast, with ridging in place over the West Coast. With temperatures falling to or near freezing alongside light to calm winds, a Frost Advisory is in effect for portions of northeast and much of south-central Nebraska. Sunday morning's warmer low temperatures and slight winds should keep frost formation from happening.
610 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Temperatures will be chilly to start the morning thanks to high pressure and persistent northerly flow keeping boundary layer temps below normal through the first part of today. Eastern fringe of ridging from the west will motion in with warmer boundary layer temps, but not enough to curb today's highs from remaining below normal. The biggest story is a strong thermal ridge axis settling over W TX and SE NM for Sunday as guidance indicates 850mb temps around 26-28C for much of the forecast area. These temps coupled with downsloping, southwesterly flow will ramp up temps into the mid-upper 80s for the high terrain and 90s across the low lands.
but cannot completely rule out some marginally SVR hail across SRN sections near the center of the upper low.
401 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2023 A ridge over the western states will continue to strengthen and slowly propagate towards the region. Highs can be expected to reach into the low to mid 70s across the plains, from the upper 60s to low 70s for the upper Arkansas River Valley and San Luis Valley, and generally in the 40s to 50s for high country, with some 30s for the highest elevations. With high pressure conditions in control, winds will continue to weaken through the night. Clear skies and relatively light winds will allow for sufficient radiational cooling for most locations across the higher terrain. Temperatures in the upper Arkansas River Valley and San Luis Valley will get down into the upper 20s and low 30s, and generally in the 20s for the higher terrain.
Even so, modest instability coupled with the low should yield scattered showers and some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Throughout the day and into the start of the work week, high pressure at the surface will build into the region.
Thunderstorm activity will remain possible areawide overnight with the approach of the upper low from the west, resulting in continued steeping lapse rates with lightning and sub-severe hail along with locally heavy rainfall with the more intense activity. 05 Modified Previous short-term discussion: Most of the precipitation will be done 9 am Sunday with the upper low totally out of the area by the Noon hour Sunday.
711 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023 A vigorous cold front will push through the area this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms.
Today: The nose of a 100kt 300 MB jet within amplified NW flow aloft on back side of upper trough is moving into our CWA. Sunday: As the mid/upper low deepens to the east surface gradient tightens and a 925-850MB wind max orientated down valley develops by midday Sunday. Upper troughing over the Great Lakes will continue to influence the weather pattern across the northern Plains through the end of the weekend into the early week ahead.
(Today through Tonight) An Upper level trough near the Canadian/US border split yesterday with the southern piece racing south across the Central Plains. For today, the northern portion of the trough will dip south across the northern half of the Mississippi Valley while the southern section tracks east across Texas and into central Louisiana. Medium range models have remained in exceptionally good agreement in terms of the track of the closed upper low, which should be passing right across the northern half of the CWA around sunset. With the low so far south, the warm sector should remain offshore. not surprising with the low right overhead. Coverage should rapidly decrease with time from west to east around sunset as the progressive upper low races east. Fairly strong gradient winds on the backside of the associated cold front should bring quite gusty winds.
631 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 (Today through Sunday Night) An upper level trough is currently digging across Central Texas this morning with the trough axis centered about the Red River Valley. This trough should push across E/SE Texas later this morning. Gusty conditions should taper off after sunset as winds decouple, with northwesterly flow further diminishing overnight as high pressure builds across the State. An 850mb ridge should settle in over Texas on Sunday. Westerly winds aloft from the 850mb ridge and clear skies should work in tandem to enhance daytime heating, bringing highs in the mid to lower 80s area wide.
526 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2023 No real worries today as ridging builds over the area to bring a nice spring day to most locations with sunshine, some clouds and temperatures a few degrees above seasonal normals.
Low pressure has shifted to our east. The main 500mb low over Nunavut (far northern Canada) continues to extend a trough south across MN/IA/MO with northwest flow across the Dakotas. Ongoing rain showers over eastern South Dakota and western MN look to sink southeast with the low, with the highest chances for precipitation being prior to 15Z. A ridge of high pressure will sink in from Canada tonight and Sunday as low pressure wraps up across the Upper Great Lakes. Recent rain and the higher relative humidity in this area will limit fire weather concerns there. A strong upper level trough will be over the Great Lakes region Sunday night, with the western edge of it over the eastern CWA.
As for the rest of today, the two upper level lows that we've been talking about for the last few nights are going to bring light rain chances across the area later this afternoon. High pressure will build in Sunday, giving the winds a northerly component, thus highs will be cooler than what they have been with highs in the 60s. (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Sunday night will be cool with lows in the low 40s. For the new work week, thankfully not a whole lot to talk about other than it's going to be beautiful as the high pressure hangs around through mid-week.
Most of our severe weather is expected with this low, especially in the southeast. Still some uncertainties on the exact track of the low so increased the marginal chance for severe weather a touch to the west. A second round of showers and storms will develop in MS this afternoon in association with the upper low. Most of the precipitation will be done 9 am Sunday with the upper low totally out of the area by the Noon hour Sunday.
Early this morning a longwave upper level trough was amplifying over the central and eastern CONUS, with a large closed circulation in the process of developing over the Great Lakes, and a smaller upper level low rotating around it trough the Deep South. The strengthening upper level trough is supporting a cold front currently over the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of it, weak high pressure is over KY and TN. Light winds and limited clouds near the high have allowed valley fog to develop, typical of many nights we'll see in the upcoming warm season. The fog will dissipate this morning and the high will weaken further today, allowing the cold front to approach. Another impulse rotating around the upper low will support the next cold front which will move through from the west northwest on Sunday.
521 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Early this morning a longwave upper level trough was amplifying over the central and eastern CONUS, with a large closed circulation in the process of developing over the Great Lakes, and a smaller upper level low rotating around it trough the Deep South. The strengthening upper level trough is supporting a cold front currently over the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of it, weak high pressure is over KY and TN. Light winds and limited clouds near the high have allowed valley fog to develop, typical of many nights we'll see in the upcoming warm season. The fog will dissipate this morning and the high will weaken further today, allowing the cold front to approach. Another impulse rotating around the upper low will support the next cold front which will move through from the west northwest on Sunday.
Onshore flow will lead to a warmer night for Sunday night.
139 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Omega block will be in place for the short term, with Montana weather being dominated by an upper ridge. This ridge will slide slowly east through the weekend, with the axis landing over the top of the area Sunday and Sunday night. Highs Sunday should climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s for western and central zones (which is above the seasonal average of the lower 60s). The east will be a little cooler, under the influence of easterly surface flow, for highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. At least the first half of the week will be dictated by an omega block in place over the region, with an upper low along the west coast, ridging over the Northern Rockies, and another low over the Great Lakes.
The rest of the CWA will lie within the cooler air mass with north winds, and highs will rise into the upper 60's to mid-70's.
1214 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 (Today and tonight) As upper low slowly exits the region this morning, light showers should end across far east/southeast counties by daybreak. Northerly winds will be a little on the gusty side as mixing commences, but overall a much better day than we have seen in several days with highs mainly in the lower 70s.
Tonight-Mon: A cold front currently located over NW KS will make steady progress across the forecast area for this evening with another minor cool down expected in its wake. Lots of dry air in the low layers, so expecting more virga than sprinkles, but will include a slight chance of a sprinkle for south central KS for Sun morning. Otherwise, temperatures Sun will be a few degrees below seasonal averages (cooler than today) in the 60s within the post-frontal airmass. The deep low pressure over the Great Lakes will support continued gusty northwest winds for Sunday afternoon, with gusts once again up to around 35 mph over central and eastern portions of Kansas.
Upper ridge axis sharpens and shifts overhead during the day Sunday.
247 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2023 The amplified ridge has built into the interior of western NOAM and pushing heights some 20dam over 24 hours ago. The clear skies under this ridge and WAA aloft is pushing temperatures back to normal this afternoon and we will add another 3 to 6 degrees to that tomorrow. The forecast as a whole is mostly uneventful under this ridge. However the dynamic trop surface does show a very weak wave cresting the ridge tonight and dropping through the Colorado Rockies during the peak heating timeframe. Overnight lows will be warming slightly as well but remain below freezing in the bulk of the high country where the beefiest snowpack remains locked for a bit longer.
High amplitude ridge over the region today through Sunday in response to a well organized low pressure system near 45N and 140W. The upper level low will track southeast reaching the Oregon Coastline on Sunday.
By early morning showers will end as a cold front moves eastward out of the area.
1133 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2023 A ridge over the western states will continue to strengthen and slowly propagate towards the region. Highs can be expected to reach into the low to mid 70s across the plains, from the upper 60s to low 70s for the upper Arkansas River Valley and San Luis Valley, and generally in the 40s to 50s for high country, with some 30s for the highest elevations. With high pressure conditions in control, winds will continue to weaken through the night. Clear skies and relatively light winds will allow for sufficient radiational cooling for most locations across the higher terrain. Temperatures in the upper Arkansas River Valley and San Luis Valley will get down into the upper 20s and low 30s, and generally in the 20s for the higher terrain.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Pleasant day outside with temperatures running some 5-10 degrees below normal under short wave ridging aloft. These near-record temperatures are due in part to southwesterly downslope winds and also in part to compressional warming ahead of a cold front.
The southern low will drift east across the MS Valley and Gulf Coast tonight, dragging its inverted trof across the remainder of the eastern FA shortly. The parent/primary upper low that pinwheels across the Great Lakes will drag another boundary/cold front across the FA, cycling instability showers/potentially a clap of thunder (mainly heat of day) thru tmrw.
Northeasterly H850 flow entering the NE Panhandles by tomorrow indicates a backdoor cold front moving into the Panhandles. Meanwhile, further aloft, a ridge will begin to build into the Four Corners Region.
216 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Latest surface analysis is showing a cold front extending from Michigan southward into the Mid South with a weak post frontal trough over southeastern Missouri. These areas will be in low level cyclonic flow in relatively close proximity to the upper low. Temperatures will cool down behind the front with lows falling back into the lower-mid 40s tonight and highs ranging from the mid- upper 50s over the northeast half of the CWA on Sunday where clouds are more likely closer to the upper low to the lower 60s over central and southeast Missouri where they are more likely to be some sunshine.
1235 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 An upper low embedded within a long wave trough will be moving across our area today, bringing a round of storms and a cold front into the area. This cooler air aloft associated with the upper low and the low level cyclonic turning with the associated surface/boundary layer feature will likely be sufficient for a few briefly stronger thunderstorm cores. Even so, modest instability coupled with the low should yield scattered showers and some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Throughout the day and into the start of the work week, high pressure at the surface will build into the region.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Skies have continued to clear throughout the course of the day today as drier air works its way into the area behind yesterday's cold front. Highs should break into the lower 80s across much of the area, though dew points in the 50s should provide for a pleasant afternoon.
Sunday will feature slightly cooler max temps over the plains as weak cold advection persists, while mountains and valleys see little change or perhaps a degf or two of warming as heights build late in the day.
Above normal temperatures today will be followed by cooler temperatures on Sunday. A weather system will impact the region this week bringing much cooler temperatures, showers, high elevation snow showers and periods of breezy winds.