Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
On Sun, mainly ISOLD- WDLY SCT shower, ISOLD lightning storm threat in the afternoon and north of Melbourne ahead of an approaching cold front. The Atlc ridge axis will slide south of the local waters with the approach of a cold front.
(This evening through Sunday) Impacts: - Patchy fog with visiblity as low as 1 to 3 miles possible on Sunday morning across east-central, south-central, and southeastern Oklahoma; localized dense fog or freezing fog cannot be ruled out. Discussion: Clearing skies and radiational cooling will decrease temperatures into the 20's and 30's by Sunday morning as the upper trough departs. Near freezing temperatures may also lead to localized freezing fog although the short duration should yield little to no impact.
953 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 A series of low pressure systems will bring occasional chances for showers through the first part of the upcoming week. The mid level trough will pivot out of the mid Mississippi Valley and across the lower Great lakes Sunday into Sunday night.
An approaching trough of low pressure towards the middle of the upcoming week will bring the return of unsettled weather. the shower activity that made it as far south as Santa Cruz will begin to move northward this evening/tonight as high pressure aloft begins to slowly build in from the SW.
Discussion: Conditions this afternoon have been fairly quiet as high pressure to our east propagates downstream. Cloud cover is expected to increase this evening into tonight as an upper-level trough slides eastward into the Upper Midwest. Light snow is not expected to begin until moisture advection occurs tonight, saturating the low-levels. These above-normal temps will increase daytime highs to or above freezing through the week for most locations.
553 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Impacts: - Patchy fog with visibility as low as 1 to 3 miles possible on Sunday morning across east-central, south-central, and southeastern Oklahoma; localized dense fog or freezing fog cannot be ruled out. Discussion: Clearing skies and radiational cooling will decrease temperatures into the 20's and 30's by Sunday morning as the upper trough departs. Near freezing temperatures may also lead to localized freezing fog although the short duration should yield little to no impact.
728 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 A series of low pressure systems will bring occasional chances for showers through the first part of the upcoming week. This front will stall out heading into this evening as a developing wave of low pressure over the eastern Tennessee Valley rides north along it. Meanwhile, mid level energy will eject northeast out of a trough moving into the the mid Mississippi Valley overnight. Overnight lows will range from the lower 40s northwest to the upper 40s southeast. The mid level trough will pivot out of the mid Mississippi Valley and across the lower Great lakes Sunday into Sunday night.
We continue to be on the freezing line through this period leading to mixed rain and snow and challenging accumulation forecasts. Travel impacts should be limited and confined to reduced visibility in any pockets of heavier snow, and some patchy slippery travel with any slushy accumulation especially on elevated surfaces such as bridges, overpasses. The clouds will limit the diurnal range with lows tonight in the lower to middle 30s, and highs Sunday in the middle 30s to around 40.
With the increase in clouds comes slightly warmer overnight lows in the teens and 20s. Temperatures for Sunday will be slightly cooler yet still mild with highs in the 30s, with some lower 40s in the south.
The consensus of model guidance shows that the lower visibilities (down to 1 statute mile) will persist through about 9Z, but then begin to rebound between 10-12Z. Low temperatures are forecast to merely drop into the lower to mid 50s for most areas, with far northwestern Alabama perhaps dipping into the upper 40s.
In addition, synoptic scale ascent (700-300mb Q-vector convergence), associated with a slowly E/NE moving positively- tilted upper trough across northern Mexico, is predicted to move across the CWA during much of the period (ECMWF deterministic).
The cold front will continue to slowly push into the area, currently looks to be sitting just NW of Baton Rouge based on surface obs. As this cold front pushes in, we will see drying and cooling conditions arrive.
529 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) After this morning's trough brought mainly virga and a few light showers to portions of the area, a strong west wind and clear skies have developed across the region behind it. As the trough continues to eject into the Mississippi Valley tonight, weak ridging takes hold across the southern Great Plains. A decaying cold front arrives behind Sunday's weak disturbance Sunday night.
(This afternoon through Sunday) Cold front is currently situated near the MS/AL border. The first area across north GA is isentropically induced on the north side of a warm front. Do expect the low clouds and fog to fill back in across north and central portions of the state after sunset. Patchy dense fog may be possible just ahead of the approaching cold front. Temperatures should remain nearly steady across most areas overnight, but could slightly rise across the southern quarter of the CWA as warmer air surges northward from the GOMEX.
Gusty ridgetop winds will also accompany the heavy rain. A warm front will advance north and east across the region this evening. As that takes place, 30-40 kt westerly flow in the 925-700 mb layer combined with a high PWAT airmass will aid in strong moisture flux that will encounter north-south oriented ridges in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties. Otherwise, gusts to 40 mph will likely be observed across exposed Del Norte ridges this evening.
The surface cold front starts working its way through the CWA late tonight into Sunday morning, finally ushering in drier, cooler air as we head into Sunday afternoon and evening. Expect high temperatures today to top out in the lower to middle 70's, dipping into the upper 50's inland and lower to middle 60's nearer the coast tonight. Sunday will be a bit cooler, with highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's.
Tonight and Sunday Key messages: - Light snow is likely late tonight and Sunday with the highest totals across eastern counties. For tonight, low pressure will move into southern Wisconsin as an upper trough moves into the western Great Lakes. Low pressure will continue to move east into lower Michigan on Sunday. The Dynamic Ensemble-based Scenario output indicated the highest chances of 3 inches of snow was over Calumet County which was only around 40%. However, low levels winds are only 10 to 15 knots and air temperatures will be a few degrees above freezing that may limit snowfall totals in this region. High temperatures in the lower to middle 30s are expected.
* Much warmer conditions mid-late week. With the lower levels of the atmosphere remaining saturated and weak lift lingering towards the top of the saturated layer, hard to say if/when the drizzle will come to an end across the region. With the stratus, temperatures are expected to largely remain above freezing while the precipitation is falling. Subsidence behind the departing wave may be enough to result in clearing skies, with temperatures falling a few degrees below freezing on Sunday night north of I-70.
105 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023 A series of low pressure systems will bring occasional chances for showers through the first part of the upcoming week. The mid level trough will pivot out of the mid Mississippi Valley and across the lower Great lakes Sunday into Sunday night. A more potent longwave trough will cross into the eastern U.
A broad, upper level trough will progress eastward across the central CONUS over the weekend. We are also seeing a potential signal for some drizzle mixed in with the light snow showers, as thermal profiles have become slightly warmer. This is not expected to be a prolific freezing drizzle event, rather it could have some spots mixed within.
A line of showers, associated with a cold front will also begin to move towards the coast, and will likely impact the Nature Coast mid morning/ early afternoon. Once the front moves away from the area Monday cooler, drier air will begin to filter in.
955 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 As of 930 PM CST, temperatures are approaching the lower 50s/upper 40s under mostly cloudy skies and light winds. And really just getting the low stuff to break and scatter in Monroe. The high cloud swath has a nice break over E TX and NW LA, plus light winds are both allowing for the warm up. The back edge of the clouds appears to remain progressive enough to go much cooler the NBM lows overnight. Weak high pressure in the mid MS River Valley is moving away this evening with another bubble air mass expanding across TX off of the front range. And here is where the NBM hangs on to the warmer readings with 4-8KT of wind overnight.
Temperatures range from the low 40s near Jasper, Indiana to the mid 50s in Clinton County, Kentucky. It's weak trailing cold front is approaching the Lower Ohio Valley from the west. Tonight, a stacked low pressure system will get pushed by upper flow directly to the Louisville area. Ahead of the system, winds will be out of the south, but as the low approaches winds over southern Indiana and central Kentucky will begin backing towards the southeast.
This is largely thanks to an incoming upper trough and sfc front currently traversing the Red River Valley. For the remainder of the period, the pattern aloft will remain active with another upper trough dropping SEwrd thru the Plains/Midwest Sun into Mon.
1058 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 As of 930 PM CST, temperatures are approaching the lower 50s/upper 40s under mostly cloudy skies and light winds. And really just getting the low stuff to break and scatter in Monroe. The high cloud swath has a nice break over E TX and NW LA, plus light winds are both allowing for the warm up. The back edge of the clouds appears to remain progressive enough to go much cooler the NBM lows overnight. Weak high pressure in the mid MS River Valley is moving away this evening with another bubble air mass expanding across TX off of the front range. And here is where the NBM hangs on to the warmer readings with 4-8KT of wind overnight.
254 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023 - Light snow, drizzle, and freezing drizzle continue through this morning, mainly east of I-35 and into western WI. - Temperatures remain seasonal to open this week but much warmer than normal temperatures are expected the latter half of the work week. This is causing overcast, low stratus and freezing drizzle to occur across southeastern MN. Some clearing across western MN is expected tonight, which should allow lows to sink into the lower 20s. Areas east will be warmer in the mid to upper 20s.
(Today through Monday Night) On Sunday, the upper lvl flow pattern remains active with an approaching maturing trof that will develop into an upper lvl low pressure center into Monday will track over locations just north of the CWA. Temperatures on Sunday will still be warmer than climatological normals for this time of the year: high temperatures across northern Arkansas will vary from the mid 50's to low 60's, then into central and southern Arkansas between the upper 50's to mid 60's.
A few tenths of an inch of snow has fallen in northeastern Missouri into southeastern Iowa, however with temperatures right around freezing, don't expect it to stick around after sunrise.
This should allow for sufficient heating to warm us back into the lower 60s by mid/late afternoon.
1031 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Impacts: - Patchy fog with visibility as low as 1 to 3 miles possible on Sunday morning across east-central, south-central, and southeastern Oklahoma; localized dense fog or freezing fog cannot be ruled out. Discussion: Clearing skies and radiational cooling will decrease temperatures into the 20's and 30's by Sunday morning as the upper trough departs. Near freezing temperatures may also lead to localized freezing fog although the short duration should yield little to no impact.
This second trough should make it's way across the central Plains today and push a cold front into north Texas this evening. The highest speeds and gusts should occur north of I-20, where 30-35KT winds in the 700-850mb levels will likely mix down to the surface during peak afternoon heating. Overnight, the aforementioned cold front should start to push into the region. The airmass behind this front isn't much cooler, so low temperatures should only fall to the mid 30s.
Mean layer ridging remains in control across the Florida Keys. High pressure centered to the northeast of Bermuda will collapse over the next 24 hours.
344 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023 Low pressure will move overhead today with its associated cold front moving through the area this afternoon.
1249 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023 A steady rainfall is expected today as a low pressure system moves through the area. Meanwhile low pressure developing over the Southeast will be moving north along the spine of the Appalachians overnight and rain will be pushing in from the south before daybreak tomorrow. Temperatures will be relatively mild tonight with lows in the lower 40s. As this low moves to the east and off the mid-Atlantic coast during the mid-to-late afternoon, a second area of low pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes enhancing showers over CNY into the evening.
1149 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 Temperatures will continue to trend warmer than average overnight and into Sunday under strong southerly flow despite advancing rain from a low pressure system. Cooler temperatures return Sunday night into Monday with elongated trough over the Great Lakes. Temperatures should remain nearly steady overnight, with the cloud cover and warm advection ahead of the low. A deeper trough will cross the region on Monday, though deeper moisture will stay south of the area. Scattered light rain showers are expected during the afternoon, with some snow possibly mixing in for the higher elevations and north of I-80 with cold advection.
Upper level trough was positioned over the central U. which has kept the low clouds in place along with bringing some earlier rainfall. An upper level ridge in the western U. Northwest flow aloft will become weak as the ridge moves into hte area.
That will continue today despite the passage of a cold front early this morning bringing slightly drier and cooler air into the picture. Temperatures will likely fall into the upper 30s for some of the usual cooler spots over the Hill Country and lower to middle 40s for the remainder of the region Sunday morning. Yet another cold front is expected to swing through on Monday, this time, a bit stronger, so afternoon highs will be a bit cooler than Sunday, generally in the mid to upper 60s north and lower to middle 70s south.
A cold front associated with the system is currently located over northern Alabama and should be entering Northwest GA over the next couple hours. The cold front should make it through the ATL metro by around 15Z with post frontal conditions significantly drier. Patchy fog may thicken north of I20 over the next several hours, particularly in the higher elevations of North GA. Highs will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows will stay in the 30s and 40s (above freezing).
359 AM EST Sun Dec 03 2023 A cold front will sweep across the region later this afternoon and tonight. A couple of moisture starved clipper low pressures will move across the region early this week. A chance of a few light showers with the cold frontal passage this afternoon. Clear and cooler tonight. The warm front has lifted north into VA early this morning. Low pressure currently over the TN Valley will move well to our north today. The trailing cold front will move east across NC this afternoon and evening. A clipper type low pressure will approach NC in the NW flow aloft early Monday. Highs should range from the lower 60s NW to near 70 SE Monday. Northerly flow will bring cooler overnight lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s by 12z/Tue.
1044 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) After this morning's trough brought mainly virga and a few light showers to portions of the area, a strong west wind and clear skies have developed across the region behind it. As the trough continues to eject into the Mississippi Valley tonight, weak ridging takes hold across the southern Great Plains. A decaying cold front arrives behind Sunday's weak disturbance Sunday night. A brief northerly wind shift may bring near freezing temperatures to southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin with upper 30s and low 40s further to the south by Monday morning.
Diurnal mixing is progged to be a bit less robust compared to yesterday which will limit the high-end wind gust potential, but overall sustained speeds of 25 to 35 mph look likely over the Caprock and western Rolling Plains, and a Wind Advisory has been issued for these areas from 10 AM until 5 PM. Temperatures today will generally top out several degrees warmer than yesterday as the eastward shift of the upper trough axis results in increased layer thicknesses. Winds will again shut off fairly quickly after sunset, with a weakening dry cold front progged to push southward through the region during the evening hours and broad surface ridging building rapidly in its wake.
The rest of the forecast will be rain free as a high pressure begins to move in the area late this weekend and into the work week. Post front temperatures will be dropping tomorrow however the surge of cooler air will start to move into the area Sunday night.
A surface pressure trough has shifted eastward into central SD with west-southwesterly winds across the area this afternoon. Temperatures are 5-10 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. While strong winds will reside just above the boundary layer (50-60 knots), warm air advection will dominate early Monday before a quick moving low pressure system crashes through central SD after 18-21z.
Ridging will result in warming temperatures, dry conditions, and light winds for most of the forecast area through the middle of the week. A change in the weather pattern brings cooler temperatures back to the area towards the end of the week.
210 AM EST Sun Dec 03 2023 A cold front will sweep across the region later this afternoon and tonight. A couple of moisture starved clipper low pressures will move across the region early this week. A chance of a few light showers with the cold frontal passage this afternoon. Clear and cooler tonight. The warm front has lifted north into VA early this morning. Low pressure currently over the TN Valley will move well to our north today. The trailing cold front will move east across NC this afternoon and evening. A clipper type low pressure will approach NC in the NW flow aloft early Monday. Highs should range from the lower 60s NW to near 70 SE Monday. Northerly flow will bring cooler overnight lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s by 12z/Tue.
Additionally, a southern stream upper trough axis over the OK panhandles continues to advect low level moisture in the form of stratus that should linger through much of the evening. The next embedded trough progressively tracks across northeast Kansas tomorrow afternoon. While deterministic/ensemble models have maintained little to no precip in our area, latest short term and HREF guidance is signaling more widespread light qpf amounts developing along the cold front Sunday afternoon. A final upper trough clips northeastern portions of the forecast area Monday evening dry, with the exception of some passing clouds.
Temperatures will still be marginally freezing for most areas, so snow will be of the wet and slushy variety. Road temperatures are also currently just above freezing south of US-10, although some accumulations are possible during times of higher snow rates. HREF ensemble guidance highlights the highest precipitation rates between 7am to 11am this morning. Above freezing temperatures should help any lingering snow to melt on contact. Moisture wanes as the main system exits further east and mid level ridging moves in.
However, a very moist warm frontal system that extends into the Pacific will move into the area overnight that will persist through Sunday for a return to widespread precipitation. Snowfall totals will exceed 6 inches in the higher mountains with lesser amounts in the mountain valleys. The precipitation will begin to taper off in SE Oregon Sunday afternoon as the warm front pushes east. Precipitation will start to taper off on Monday and the snow level will continue to rise up to around 7000 feet by Monday afternoon as warmer air moves into the area. Meanwhile, light to occasionally moderate rain will fall across the lower elevations of southern Idaho and across portions of southwestern Oregon tonight and on Sunday.
Current surface analysis places low over southern Saskatchewan with trough dropping south through eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming. Upper level analysis places broad trough over the central CONUS, while over our area a modest short wave continues its approach, which is resulting in cloud cover spreading west to east over our area, and a few light snow showers over southwestern parts of the area. As we get towards Monday morning, far southwestern areas may see a few drops of rain or light freezing rain as forecast soundings indicate modest warming aloft ahead of the cooler air that will pull in on Monday. With that said, light snow chances will continue to push east through the morning, with the continued possibility of a light rain/freezing rain transition over the southwest/parts of the south central before the cooler air shifts in.
The Florida Keys lie on the western edge of a sprawling ridge located across the Western North Atlantic. A broad upper level trough is approaching from the west and is beginning to break down the western side of said ridge. The only place to find some relief in the Keys this morning is on Big Pine where winds dropped off, which in combination with mostly clear skies, have allowed temperatures to fall into the lower 70s.
557 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023 (Sunday through Monday) The first in a series of weak, reinforcing cold fronts will move across the area this morning. The next, and somewhat stronger, cold front will move across the forecast area this evening and tonight.
So, expect high temperatures this afternoon to top out in the low 70s for most locations.
High pressure builds in for Mon and Tue followed by a strong cold front Wed. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front Thu. A cold front will bring a small line of showers to the area by late afternoon. Behind the cold front mentioned above, it will be a much cooler and drier night with lows back into the 40s.
20 of an inch of liquid water expected in the Snake River plain, no Winter highlights are expected, as temperatures will just barely be around freezing and should warm into the upper 30s in Pocatello, and middle 30s in the north end at Idaho Falls and Rexburg.
Since we are still feeling some effects from this high, marine platforms are observing southeast to south winds of 5 to 10 knots with Island Chain communities observing near 5 mph. From synopsis, high pressure centered to the northeast of Bermuda will collapse over the next 12 to 18 hours.
After one more day of cooler temperatures, a strong high pressure system will spread over the region during the first part of this week leading to a quick warming trend.
244 AM MST Sun Dec 3 2023 After one more day of cooler temperatures, a strong high pressure system will spread over the region during the first part of this week leading to a quick warming trend.
After moving pretty slowly north most of the night the low clouds (IFR) are spreading north quickly thru west central MN and the southern RRV.
There has been a shift south with the higher precipitation probabilities.