Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
West southwesterly flow aloft slowly turns more southwesterly through the day today as upper troughing across the northeast Pacific builds. Slightly cooler mid level air and slightly warmer surface temperatures across North-central Montana Wednesday will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop across the entire region. Forecast soundings feature inverted-V profiles above 700mb, but largely falls short of mixing to the freezing level. The deeper mixing tomorrow compared to today will help support stronger wind gusts, but lack of mixing to above the freezing layer helps mitigate concerns for severe caliber gusts.
(Today through Wednesday Night) Influence of the upper level trough will decrease slightly today as ridging begins to build back over Southeast TX. Speaking of temperatures, today's highs will be slightly warmer, generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. The lows overnight into early Wednesday morning will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. However, a surge of much drier air along the mid levels will move into Southeast TX in the afternoon and the influence of the ridge will be a little stronger. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies and highs a degree or two warmer than today.
And again, the main actor in this discussion, is the persistent upper level low. The low will be the furthest away from the far today, coverage of storms should be the least in a while. With ridging over the area, temperatures should be warmer today with most lower elevations East of the Divide approaching 80 and warmer locations, like the Bighorn Basin, rising well into the 80s. The pattern will then become more active again as the aforementioned everlasting upper level low makes a left turn and drifts toward the northern Rockies.
Otherwise, it will be dry and still warmer than normal with widespread highs in the 80s. Wednesday Night and beyond: Another slow moving upper-level trough and ample moisture transport looks to set up a potentially similar scenario for the second half of this week as last week.
Light east to southeast flow around upper level high pressure over New England and departing low pressure along the Carolina coast is keeping dew points down with surface observations showing widespread 50s.
354 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure continues to dominate over the region, bringing warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather across the area.
Discussion: Synoptic pattern remains rather amplified across the CONUS, with a deep trough, to our west, extending southward into the Four Corners region, and an H5 ridge, to our east, extending northward into western portions of the Hudson Bay region.
1101 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 A cut-off upper low over South Carolina will drift northeast to Cape Hatteras tonight, then off the east coast by Tuesday.
This afternoon into tonight, CO disturbance looks to advance southeastward around the periphery of the NM ridge. Tuesday, NM upper ridge looks to shift eastward and weaken slightly.
1228 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Our long streak of stormy evenings is set to take a break thanks to a sharpening upper ridge just to our west. As this ridge axis becomes poised squarely over the South Plains Tuesday afternoon, a dome of very warm thicknesses and deeper subsidence will overspread the region. Mostly clear skies remain on track through Tuesday save for a few stray clouds off the Caprock/immediately downstream of the upper ridge.
Dry weather and a warming trend is expected through the rest of the week under high pressure. Previous-High pressure will remain over the interior northeast overnight, keeping most of the region dry and clear. As the low pulls off the coast, precipitation chances will be null and clouds will clear after about 06Z Tuesday. High pressure is expected to retrograde across the northeastern CONUS through mid week, as the low that was over the Carolinas stalls just off the coast and weakens across the Mid Atlantic region.
311 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023 (Issued 311 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023) Today through Wednesday: It will be dry again today under high pressure, with temperatures warming up into the upper 80s most places away from Lake Michigan.
316 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Strong and persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.
07Z water vapor imagery showed an upper level trough over the northern plains with a weakening MCS moving through southern NEB and into Northern KS. And at the surface, ridging to the east and low pressure in the lee of the Rockies continues to support southerly low level flow and good moisture advection north.
306 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure will maintain dry and increasingly warm conditions over the area this week with basically the same pattern holding into the weekend as an upper level blocking pattern holds sway.
Although temperatures will be warmer than the last two days with highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s across the region, expect a fairly dry day as low PWATs around 1 inch or less are still expected to linger across the region.
Discussion: The closed upper low near the Carolina coast will continue to drift slowly E. This is sufficient to warrant the mention of thunder all areas, and will carry isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms especially this afternoon with highest PoPs across the higher terrain and southern valley.
The air mass will continue to moderate with highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday. As ridging strengthens to our north today a cold front will sag into the Mid Atlantic and approach the FA from the north late this afternoon and evening. Cloud cover will keep lows in the low to mid 60s. Very weak ridging aloft will occur across the cwa between these two lows, with a much stronger ridge being centered across the northern Mid- Atlantic and western New England region.
Low pressure could form across southern Florida near the end of the week and move northeast into the Atlantic over the weekend. Otherwise, quiet conditions anticipated through the night with temperatures dipping to the lower to middle 60s for most areas. Additionally, an upper low will remain offshore the Mid- Atlantic nearly vertically stacked with its weak surface inflection.
358 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure continues to dominate over the region, bringing warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather across the area.
438 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 A cut-off mid and upper level low pressure are located over the Outer Banks of N. Noticeably drier and somewhat cooler air will push into the Commonwealth from the east today.
321 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 The upper low over centered over the North Carolina coast will gradually weaken today allowing thicknesses to increase slightly.
As a couple of weather disturbances move across the Desert Southwest through the middle to latter half of the week, a cooling trend is anticipated with highs across most of the lower desert communities only topping out in the lower 90s. Meanwhile, further upstream a compact upper low is evident in water vapor imagery off the central California coast. With the increased meridional component to the flow, temperatures are somewhat lower than this time yesterday across southern California, while further east across central and eastern Arizona, warmer conditions prevail. A cooling trend is expected on Wednesday across most of the region as heights aloft lower in response to the approaching upper-level low, with highs across most of the lower deserts likely only topping out in the lower 90s.
This Evening/Tonight Currently this afternoon, a closed low is located over the Carolina Coast that will gradually shift eastward through the rest of the period. Heating, combined with sufficient moisture, will allow for diurnal convection focused along the higher terrain.
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show that the mid-level anticyclone that has dominated the weather across the Upper Great Lakes during the weekend is currently centered near Drummond Island. With a dry air mass lingering and winds falling off to calm in the interior, favored the lowest guidance for min temps. Expect temps to fall to the lwr 40s at the low end over the s central/se fcst area. With medium range and ensemble packages suggesting the continued presence of a mid-level ridge over the Upper Great Lakes for a majority of this forecast period, its no surprise that the end result will be above normal temperatures and below normal precip.
An upper level ridge is located directly over the CWA and is the most amplified we will see all week. Westerly winds west of the ridge axis will push drier air into southeastern New Mexico and the Big Bend sharpening a dryline this afternoon along the TX/NM border south to the Davis Mtns. Tomorrow we begin to see the upper ridge breaking down as a West Coast trough moves into Arizona. Temperatures Wednesday reflect the weakening ridge with highs dropping back a couple of degrees from today.
(Today through Wednesday) Weak northerly flow at the surface will slowly switch to more of an easterly direction today as a trough builds in from the east. This advancing trough will be a result of high pressure building over the Atlantic. Generally fair skies tonight with lows in the low 60s.
Otherwise with higher heights and mostly sunny skies this morning, temperatures should warm into the lower 80s.
211 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Upper trof moving over the Northern Plains early this morning will be exiting the region during the morning, with most convection done by that time. A better LL boundary appears to exist over parts of MN and over the High Plains of NE/KS, this is where svr chances look better. An broad upper trough across the western CONUS and a Rex Block, more or less across the eastern CONUS will still be in place at the beginning of this period.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday/ Broad troughing aloft will continue overhead today while low- amplitude ridging gradually builds to our west. The greatest rain coverage should be east of I-35 given the subtle eastward shift of the upper trough axis and its attendant broad ascent, and rain chances will be minimal across the west in the presence of weak height rises. Overall, a similar setup will exist heading into Wednesday, but a continued slow eastward shift of upper troughing should confine rain chances mostly to East Texas where PoPs of ~20% will be maintained.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will expand eastward, with the ridge axis overhead by Wednesday, resulting in subsidence and a dry forecast the next 24 hours.
1119 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 (This evening through Tuesday Night) A weak upper level low is moving through Texas helping to spawn popup thunderstorms across the coast this morning. There will be a lull in the shower activity late tonight, but shower and thunderstorm activity returns tomorrow afternoon as a vort max slides in behind the low.
235 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 A cut-off mid and upper level low pressure are located over the Outer Banks of N. Noticeably drier and somewhat cooler air will push into the Commonwealth from the east today.
This is also where the higher moisture levels per model 850mb theta-e and 1000-500mb RH layer progs will be located. As far as temperatures, raised highs closer to the NBM 75th percentile due to many hours of sunshine, dry ground, and 850mb temps 2-3C degrees warmer than today. Current Rex block just to our east will finally break down, with the upper low filling and weakening. However, the latest guidance is showing the upper high retrograding west back over the Great Lakes and Midwest through the weekend.
143 AM MDT Tue May 30 2023 Mean western CONUS trough will continue to support unsettled weather through most of the period as subtle impulses eject and cross the region. Unsettled SW flow will persist through the rest of the period, with daily chances for storms, highest probs in the western 1/3 to half of the FA, esp toward the end of the work week as a slow moving upper trough advects over the region with sufficient ll moisture.
An upper level low continues to slowly trek eastward. Water Vapor imagery shows an upper level low pressure system located over central North Dakota continuing to trek eastward. This upper level low brought widespread thunderstorms to the state yesterday. An upper level low is forecast to dig into the Desert Southwest while a ridge builds over the Northeast.
627 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023 An upper level low continues to slowly trek eastward. Water Vapor imagery shows an upper level low pressure system located over central North Dakota continuing to trek eastward. This upper level low brought widespread thunderstorms to the state yesterday. An upper level low is forecast to dig into the Desert Southwest while a ridge builds over the Northeast.
645 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure continues to dominate over the region, bringing warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather across the area.
940 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Heat builds through the week with isolated/scattered afternoon convection, mainly in the higher terrain. As the high clouds have largely cleared from the area, low stratus and fog are taking hold in the southern part of WV and SW VA. A combination of sunshine and increasing E-SE'ly downsloping breezes should help to scour out most of the low stratus and fog by mid- morning. The best chances will remain in the higher terrain along the southeastern border of the CWA, mainly from around Snowshoe down to our SW VA counties. Mountain highs will range from low to mid-70s at around 2500ft to only the low to mid-60s on the highest peaks.
(Now through Wednesday) Weak flow pattern aloft is expected to prevail through midweek as an upper low forms over the northern Gulf of Mexico today and persists through the period.
Dry conditions will continue for most of the area into this weekend with generally cooler than average late May to early June temperatures.
Water Vapor imagery shows an upper level low pressure system located over central North Dakota continuing to trek eastward. This upper level low brought widespread thunderstorms to the state yesterday. An upper level low is forecast to dig into the Desert Southwest while a ridge builds over the Northeast.
716 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 A cut-off mid and upper level low pressure are located over the Outer Banks of N. Noticeably drier and somewhat cooler air will push into the Commonwealth from the east today.
630 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night) Influence of the upper level trough will decrease slightly today as ridging begins to build back over Southeast TX. Speaking of temperatures, today's highs will be slightly warmer, generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. The lows overnight into early Wednesday morning will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. However, a surge of much drier air along the mid levels will move into Southeast TX in the afternoon and the influence of the ridge will be a little stronger. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies and highs a degree or two warmer than today.
Downstream of this trough axis, scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the western half of MN. The 00z sounding from INL shows a substantial amount of dry air in the lower levels and this is reflected in recent model soundings from the CAMs. CAMs are reflecting this high instability/low shear environment with discrete cells quickly forming and subsequently dissipating later today. However, given the high instability by late afternoon, a storm or two may be capable of producing severe hail of 1" in diameter.
633 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 (Today and tonight) One more day of mostly dry weather as we're caught between two areas of upper level troughing.
451 AM MDT Tue May 30 2023 Mean western CONUS trough will continue to support unsettled weather through most of the period as subtle impulses eject and cross the region. Unsettled SW flow will persist through the rest of the period, with daily chances for storms, highest probs in the western 1/3 to half of the FA, esp toward the end of the work week as a slow moving upper trough advects over the region with sufficient ll moisture.
654 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Strong and persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.
Still think thunder is worth mentioning as model soundings show sufficient CAPE extending well above the freezing levels to warrant at least some isolated to scattered thunderstorms embedded in the convection that develops later today. Discussion: The closed upper low near the Carolina coast will continue to drift slowly E. This is sufficient to warrant the mention of thunder all areas, and will carry isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms especially this afternoon with highest PoPs across the higher terrain and southern valley.
(Today through Wednesday) A quiet cool night with temps dropping into the mid 50s will give way to another cooler than normal day tomorrow with temps in the upper 70s and low 80s.
640 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will expand eastward, with the ridge axis overhead by Wednesday, resulting in subsidence and a dry forecast the next 24 hours.
The Florida Keys remain under the influence of a diffuse ridge over the East Coast and the extreme western Atlantic. Skies are mostly sunny to partly cloudy across the island chain, which has allowed temperatures to quickly rebound into the lower to mid 80s at most communities.
208 AM PDT Tue May 30 2023 Temperatures will be slightly below normal for this time of year in the San Joaquin Valley today, in the high 70's to low 80's. Highs will rise in the valley to the mid to high 90's by the weekend and cool to the low 90's on Tuesday. A weak disturbance will start to pass over our CWA today and cause temperatures to lower slightly from yesterday, to the high 70's and low 80's. The disturbance will move east and ridging will develop, leading to increasing high temperatures.
- Pierce 510 AM MDT Tue May 30 2023 (30/12Z TAF Period) Patchy fog within the valleys of Southwest through Central Montana is expected to dissipate through 14z this morning, with showers and thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain of Southwest Montana between 16-18z Tuesday. West southwesterly flow aloft slowly turns more southwesterly through the day today as upper troughing across the northeast Pacific builds. Slightly cooler mid level air and slightly warmer surface temperatures across North-central Montana Wednesday will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop across the entire region. Forecast soundings feature inverted-V profiles above 700mb, but largely falls short of mixing to the freezing level. The deeper mixing tomorrow compared to today will help support stronger wind gusts, but lack of mixing to above the freezing layer helps mitigate concerns for severe caliber gusts.
The upper low over centered over the North Carolina coast will gradually weaken today allowing thicknesses to increase slightly.
813 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure continues to dominate over the region, bringing warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather across the area.
While the upper flow pattern remains characterized by high pressure and weak winds, a few showers and weak thunderstorms may manage to break through a modest cap just due to diurnal heating alone.
618 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a trough exiting the region to the east as riding builds in from the west. The upper ridge will continue to move into the region today which will help keep a lid on our rain chances to the west of Highway 281. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today across our eastern areas as some H5 energy lingering behind the departing trough combines with increases moisture convergence along the coast. Rain chances continue to lower on Wednesday as ridging takes control.
923 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Strong and persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.
Lows tonight dip into the low 70s for most. On Wednesday, a streamer shower may be possible along the coast early and a shower or lone thunderstorm may briefly fire up along the seabreeze, otherwise, expect highs a degree or two warmer in southeasterly flow and abundant sunshine as the mid-level ridge builds.
625 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night ) Strong high pressure centered toward New England will continue to slowly move away from Arkansas the next couple of days. On the western periphery of the high, a nearly stationary boundary will wash out with time.
949 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure over the northeastern states will extend into the Ohio Valley through the week, with warm temperatures expected. As the upper low over the Carolinas drifts off the coast today, gradually weakening, the long-running Rex Block pattern will finally be on its way out. This means another day of boundary layer flow out of the southeast, mostly sunny conditions, and temperatures a degree or two warmer than Tuesday -- reaching the middle to upper 80s. Upper high extending from the eastern Great Lakes into New England at the beginning of the period will become more expansive as it retrogrades into the northern Plains by the weekend.
638 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure continues to dominate over the region, bringing warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather across the area.
612 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Weak northerly flow at the surface will slowly switch to more of an easterly direction today as a trough builds in from the east. This advancing trough will be a result of high pressure building over the Atlantic. Generally fair skies tonight with lows in the low 60s.
922 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure continues to dominate over the region, bringing warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather across the area.
Generally dry and mild conditions will prevail today ahead of a low pressure system that will makes its way across the Desert Southwest through the end of the workweek. The influence of the low will result in cooler temperatures and increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms for the middle to latter portions of the upcoming week.
547 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Dry weather and a warming trend is expected through the rest of the week under high pressure.
644 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure over the northeastern states will extend into the Ohio Valley through the week, with warm temperatures expected. As the upper low over the Carolinas drifts off the coast today, gradually weakening, the long-running Rex Block pattern will finally be on its way out. This will lead to southeasterly boundary layer flow, and dewpoints will increase by several degrees (getting into the lower 60s) by late morning. This means another day of boundary layer flow out of the southeast, mostly sunny conditions, and temperatures a degree or two warmer than Tuesday -- reaching the middle to upper 80s. Upper high extending from the eastern Great Lakes into New England at the beginning of the period will become more expansive as it retrogrades into the northern Plains by the weekend.
626 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Upper trof moving over the Northern Plains early this morning will be exiting the region during the morning, with most convection done by that time. A better LL boundary appears to exist over parts of MN and over the High Plains of NE/KS, this is where svr chances look better. An broad upper trough across the western CONUS and a Rex Block, more or less across the eastern CONUS will still be in place at the beginning of this period.
537 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Winds organize out of the southeast by mid-day as high pressure centered over New England broadens under firmly entrenched ridging aloft. High pressure will maintain dry and increasingly warm conditions over the area this week with basically the same pattern holding into the weekend as an upper level blocking pattern holds sway.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) Residual low to mid level troughing remains over the area extending west from the upper low off the coast of North Carolina. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.