Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1157 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 A mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes area tonight is progged to dig south and eastward across the Ohio Valley into the Southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, an amplified mid/upper ridge over the Central Great Basin area will translate eastward into the Rockies with northwest mid/upper flow impacting the Central Plains.
A uniform region of NNW/N flow in the lower levels has aided in the development of a mid-lake lake effect band stretching from Lake Michigan into southern portions of central Indiana. This should introduce drier air in the mid levels, eventually eroding some of the low level cloud deck. Where clouds remain, temperatures will be slightly higher overnight, with lows ranging from the low to upper 20s. Continued NNW/NW flow tomorrow will limit the advancement of warm air, even as ridging builds within a maximized AVA region of the jet.
A ridge of high pressure was centered over eastern MN early this afternoon, with north flow off the Great Lakes continuing to produce widespread low stratus across all of WI. Satellite trends and consensus of surrounding offices supported a slower clearing trend with the low stratus tonight. Developing south winds should result in slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday, with highs in upper 20s to middle 30s. Saturday Night Through Friday Southerly flow will bring warmer temperatures to the western Great Lakes during the second half of the weekend with a high pressure off to the east and a low pressure system developing across the central Plains.
1133 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 (Rest of Today) Light rain and a wintry mix has been reported across the area this morning, as low level wraparound moisture from yesterday's system increases across the lower Appalachians. Overall, little to no impacts are expected from the snow today as surface temperatures have remained above freezing, and this follows a period of above normal temperatures. With that said, some areas in higher elevations could dip below freezing today and will need to be monitored closely during any heavier snow showers. Some slushy areas on bridges and overpasses cannot be ruled out, but this largely depends on snowfall rates and near sfc temperatures.
The good news for the remainder of the day is that temps will remain above freezing, although not that much above freezing. Now - temps are expected to fall below freezing overnight, so any liquid will likely freeze overnight which is certainly a concern that will be discussed further this afternoon.
1019 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2023 Current surface map places warm front across eastern Montana into western South Dakota. Low clouds/dense fog east of the warm front will linger through this morning. Upper level ridge builds across the area today with low level thermal profiles peaking late today/early Saturday supporting highs in the 40s/50s.
1026 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023 No changes were needed for the forecast this morning as temperatures will likely hold steady across the area as this low level cloud deck slowly pushes east throughout the morning and afternoon hours. (Today and tonight) A longwave trough will settle across the southeast US with perturbations rounding the base of the trough. Clouds, gusty winds, and cold air advection will keep highs only in the lower to middle 50s. The cold air advection regime continues into tonight with lows near freezing for most areas.
There is enough anticipated accumulation that it was deemed pertinent to go ahead and issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the potential freezing rain for Valley and Phillips Counties. There is also indications of perhaps some patchy freezing fog in low-lying areas, including the river valleys, but the extent and density of the fog is uncertain still at this time. Quick moving upper level ridge and Chinook winds off the Rocky Mountain Front Range will push a warm front through the area today. On Saturday a disturbance moves northeast across the northwestern part of our CWA and due to the warm air aloft and the shallow layer of cold air at the surface, precipitation will be in the form of freezing rain or rain.
This should result in very good radiational cooling and widespread frost, as overnight lows will fall to near freezing, and likely into the upper 20s areawide. On Saturday, expect dry conditions to remain across the region as upper ridging builds across the Southern and Central Plains. Despite the southerly winds, temperatures are forecast to only be a few degrees warmer than today, with highs ranging from the mid 50s in our Ark-La-Miss zones to lower 60s across East Texas.
1036 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023 Low pressure brings a cold front through the area this afternoon.
1218 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023 No changes were needed for the forecast this morning as temperatures will likely hold steady across the area as this low level cloud deck slowly pushes east throughout the morning and afternoon hours. (Today and tonight) A longwave trough will settle across the southeast US with perturbations rounding the base of the trough. Clouds, gusty winds, and cold air advection will keep highs only in the lower to middle 50s. The cold air advection regime continues into tonight with lows near freezing for most areas.
The cold front is still working through our southern counties however the showers have pushed out of the CWA. Behind the front is gusty winds and cooler air.
1249 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023 Low pressure brings a cold front through the area this afternoon.
(This evening through Saturday) A deep trough was over much of the Tennessee Valley Region while high-amplitude ridging was over the Intermountain West. Expansive high pressure was across South-Central Canada south across the Central Plains. The base of the deep trough will remain just to our north while another impulse swings through the trough base over Tennessee. The surface pressure gradient will gradually relax with low pressure moving out to sea while high pressure remains to our west across the Plains. The deep trough will move over the Southern Mid Atlantic states overnight while ridging builds over the Southern and Central Plains. Deep troughing will move over the Carolinas during the day Saturday while ridging will amplify over the Plains and Midwest.
Low level moisture will begin to decrease as high pressure sinks south into the Ozarks region tonight, and any lingering precip should come to an end shortly after midnight. While significant travel issues are not anticipated, a few slick spots will be possible across bridges and overpasses in the higher terrain where temperatures have cooled near or below freezing.
While some flips in p-type to freezing drizzle are possible, especially away from the "heavier" convective elements, currently have not reflected this in the gridded forecast given the pretty marginal environment (cloud bases above about 2 kft with thicknesses under 3 kft), but will continue to keep an eye on things. Carlaw Upper ridging currently west of the Rockies will shift eastward this weekend, with the axis over the Mississippi Valley by Saturday evening.
The surface analysis this afternoon indicated a weak ridge over south central, east central MN, and into west central WI. Southerly flow developed on the west side of this ridge today along with skies becoming clear.
100 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023 The cold front pushes offshore this morning, allowing much cooler, drier air to arrive by the weekend.
Temperatures have warmed across the region, reaching the 50s for locations along and south of Interstate 70 and cooler temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s observed in northeast Colorado and extreme southwest Nebraska. At the surface, a lee trough was situated just east of the Colorado Front Range. Aloft, an upper level ridge extended across the High Plains, which has led to the calm and warmer weather being observed. For the rest of today through Saturday night, the upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather.
The shallow cold airmass across the area today will continue to scour out as warming aloft begins with better mixing depth in a warmer southerly flow regime by Saturday afternoon under ridging aloft over the area.
147 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023 Snow showers, most numerous in the ridges, will continue into Saturday as an upper trough crosses.
Expecting cloudy skies to persist as high pressure works its way across the area today.
(This evening through Saturday) A short wave ridge will dominate the area this evening and overnight until the ridge axis passes overhead early Saturday morning. Upper flow will begin to back to the southwest tomorrow in advance of the next upper level trough moving onshore on the west coast. A very weak short wave trough will be moving overhead on Saturday afternoon but the larger trough to the west will have more of an impact on surface fields. We will see modest surface lee cyclogenesis Saturday afternoon in southeastern Colorado with a surface pressure trough extending southward through eastern New Mexico.
300 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 Large-scale subsidence will become increasingly dominant across the Midwest this evening and into Saturday as an upper-level ridge advances eastward into the region.
(The rest of this afternoon and Tonight) Surface ridging continues to settle over the area this afternoon, with seasonably cool temperatures common this afternoon. Temperatures will likely drop into the lower 20s across a good portion of the forecast area, with some normally cooler sites dipping into the teens.
210 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 Key Messages: - Slow clearing overnight into Saturday with some warmer temperatures expected.
1202 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 A rather amplified upper air pattern exists across the CONUS at this time featuring an upper ridge from the Four Corners Region into the Northern Rockies, and a deep long wave trof centered through the east. A series of vort maxes will rotate south- southeastward within the cyclonic flow of the western portion of the trof and across eastern MO and western IL. Louis at 08z and was helping produce some scattered flurries and even lighter patchy freezing drizzle. Portions of southwest IL may not completely clear until this evening as high pressure slides into the area. A warm-up will commence on Saturday as low level south to southwest flow returns, and heights aloft rise in association with a ridge building into the MS Valley from the Plains.
1038 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023 Low pressure brings a cold front through the area this afternoon.
This will continue through tonight and tomorrow as the surface ridging shifts eastward. Low temps Saturday night will be 10-15 degrees warmer than tonight.
925 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023 Snow showers, most numerous in the ridges, will continue into Saturday as an upper trough crosses.
Still, the winter weather advisory was allowed to continue as some of the higher elevations along the plateau could squeeze out an inch through the rest of the overnight hours. The coverage of snow showers are expected to decrease as the night wears on as the trough and moisture pulls eastward. Have already seen a few periods of heavier snowfall today and once temps fall below freezing conditions could deteriorate across portions of the Upper Cumberland included in the Winter Weather Advisory. Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing tonight, with lows in the mid 20s. This will spell bad news for any liquid on roadways as they could freeze overnight, especially bridges and overpasses. Any lingering moisture is expected to move out by 6 AM tomorrow, although slick roads will remain a possibility through mid-morning until temps reach above freezing.
517 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) It was chilly heading out the door this morning, but upper ridging and southerly flow today and tomorrow will keep temperatures above- normal through the short term. Highs today will be in the low 60s for most, warming to the upper 60s and 70s by Saturday. Despite the above-normal temperatures, strong radiational cooling tonight with light winds and clear skies will allow lows to fall to near freezing.
Key Messages: - Warmer temperatures through the weekend.
Low- lying spots will again dip into the 20s, including some locations across Central and East Texas that avoided freezing temperatures Friday morning. With deepening lee troughing, breezy south winds will ensue by midday Saturday, allowing much of North and Central Texas to climb into the 60s.
We could see periods of gusty winds in the SJ Valley tomorrow morning ahead of the cold front and rain bands. Nuisance flooding is also possible across the valley with the passage of the cold front.
515 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 (This evening through Saturday) A short wave ridge will dominate the area this evening and overnight until the ridge axis passes overhead early Saturday morning. Upper flow will begin to back to the southwest tomorrow in advance of the next upper level trough moving onshore on the west coast. A very weak short wave trough will be moving overhead on Saturday afternoon but the larger trough to the west will have more of an impact on surface fields. We will see modest surface lee cyclogenesis Saturday afternoon in southeastern Colorado with a surface pressure trough extending southward through eastern New Mexico.
208 PM MST Fri Jan 13 2023 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary now moving slowly east-northeast as a warm front, located across the far eastern CWA this afternoon. Upper level analysis shows ridge over the Rockies, with trough off the west coast. Mild and relatively quiet weather is expected through at least the first half of the holiday weekend as ridge moves over and east of the region this weekend.
700 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023 Snow showers, most numerous in the ridges, will continue into Saturday as an upper trough crosses.
Varying amounts of high cloudiness continue over Northern Colorado with approaching ridge axis. For tonight and Saturday, the ridge axis slides eastward across the central plains in response to next storm system approaching the west coast. This will create some gusty winds over the higher mountains and exposed east slopes of 30 to 50 mph. Cloudiness may keep temperatures more in the lower to mid 50s over the Front Range and the cooler readings in the over low lying areas.
517 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 (The rest of this afternoon and Tonight) Surface ridging continues to settle over the area this afternoon, with seasonably cool temperatures common this afternoon. Temperatures will likely drop into the lower 20s across a good portion of the forecast area, with some normally cooler sites dipping into the teens.
As Friday goes on, the ridge over our area will shift eastward. This is low confidence at best, but it bears watching as it could provide a brief freezing drizzle or quick dusting of snow as temperatures will be right around freezing. Highs on Saturday will be almost a repeat of today with highs in the 30s for most and warming to the low 40s in the eastern Magic Valley and lower Snake Plain.
Generally the northshore and MS Gulf Coast and points north will be at or below freezing as efficient radiational cooling takes place.
Warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected through Saturday afternoon.
407 PM MST Fri Jan 13 2023 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary now moving slowly east-northeast as a warm front, located across the far eastern CWA this afternoon. Upper level analysis shows ridge over the Rockies, with trough off the west coast. Mild and relatively quiet weather is expected through at least the first half of the holiday weekend as ridge moves over and east of the region this weekend.
513 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 (This evening through Saturday) After a couple of days with seasonably average temperatures, an upper ridge will be building in this weekend as warmer south winds make a return. Also went slighlty warmer Saturday with the MaxT using the CONSMOS. HREF members are showing the possibility of cirrus dirtying up the ridge by the afternoon, which could affect temperatures and mixing heights keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler and wind gusts slightly lower. Saturdays windy and unseasonably warmer conditions combined with dry air coming up from western Texas over increasing dry vegetation/fuels across the western edge of our area will increase the fire danger potential during the afternoon.
517 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 Large-scale subsidence will become increasingly dominant across the Midwest this evening and into Saturday as an upper-level ridge advances eastward into the region.
706 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023 (Through Saturday) The upper level trough that brought severe to the region yesterday evening is expected to continue to dig south into the Peninsula of Florida this evening and overnight tonight.
(Now through Saturday) An upper trough over the eastern states will continue to move east through the period. On the backside of the upper trough, a deep layer northwest flow pattern will remain in place across the area. This will result in building high pressure at the surface with dry conditions and cool temperatures. Cold temps will continue across the area under building high pressure.
545 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) High pressure over the central CONUS will continue to shift east over the next couple days.
(Through Saturday) The upper level trough that brought severe to the region yesterday evening is expected to continue to dig south into the Peninsula of Florida this evening and overnight tonight.
522 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 Key Messages: - Slow clearing overnight into Saturday with some warmer temperatures expected.
Temperatures are hovering in the low to mid 30s across the region at this hour.
(Today and tonight) The pressure gradient will weaken today as a large area of low pressure off the US East Coast moves farther into the Atlantic. High pressure will build in in its wake. As high pressure builds in, winds become light to calm overnight tonight. Went with a blend of NBM25 and consensus MOS guidance for tonight, yielding lows in the middle to upper 20s outside of the urban cores and beaches, which will be in the lower 30s.
An amplified 300 mb ridge currently extends across much of the western US helping to continue our warmer than average temperatures. As a 500 mb ridge tracks over the Panhandle this morning, southwest flow aloft will persist through the day ahead of its trailing trough.
Deep troughing will move over the Carolinas during the day Saturday while ridging will amplify over the Plains and Midwest.
1213 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2023 (Through Saturday) The upper level trough that brought severe to the region yesterday evening is expected to continue to dig south into the Peninsula of Florida this evening and overnight tonight.
1259 AM MST Sat Jan 14 2023 Upper ridge axis was sitting over eastern Montana early this morning with a broad trough over the eastern Pacific into the Washington/Oregon/California coast. The western trough will advance east today and this will send a chunk of energy through Montana on southwest flow, as the upper ridge gets shoved to the east. NBM was placing a 40% chance of picking up 2 inches over the higher peaks of the Beartooth/Absarokas.
With the cold front moved through, temperatures continue to drop. Today the high temperatures will struggle to make it to the upper 50s, with northern counties staying in the low 50s. Tonight temperatures will continue to plummet, with many areas dipping to the low 30s.
Snow showers, mostly in the ridges, will continue into Saturday as an upper trough advances east.
218 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2023 A dry start to the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds across the FA.
The 500 mb ridge axis over central CO this evening and will continue to transate eastward overnight with an increasing southwesterly flow aloft over the area on Saturday. Varying amounts of high cloudiness continue over Northern Colorado with approaching ridge axis. For tonight and Saturday, the ridge axis slides eastward across the central plains in response to next storm system approaching the west coast. This will create some gusty winds over the higher mountains and exposed east slopes of 30 to 50 mph. Cloudiness may keep temperatures more in the lower to mid 50s over the Front Range and the cooler readings in the over low lying areas.
248 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2023 Snow showers, mostly in the ridges, will continue into Saturday as an upper trough advances east.
1038 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) High pressure over the central CONUS will continue to shift east over the next couple days.
338 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2023 Much cooler and drier air will move into the area this weekend.
146 AM MST Sat Jan 14 2023 Current surface map places warm front across the central Dakotas with lee side trof across Montana/Wyoming.
357 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2023 High pressure will build over the region this weekend.
Freezing levels are steadily dropping with correlation coefficient data suggesting snow is falling several thousand feet above the surface.
Therefore, with no appreciable moisture return, efficient radiational cooling under the upper ridge currently in place will result in another cold night with lows mainly in the 30s, except for some upper 20s in outlying areas.
Dry and mild conditions across the region today as an upper ridge of high pressure sits over the Four Corners. meanwhile, a longwave trough of low pressure sits just off the West Coast. The upper ridge axis was located over western CO, producing west to northwest flow aloft across the forecast area. The upper ridge axis slowly crosses the state tonight, reaching the eastern border Saturday morning. Increasing southwest flow on the backside of the ridge, and ahead of the next incoming upper disturbance, will draw moisture back up across the Four Corners and into western CO. As for temps, plan on lows in the 20s for most location tonight, though the lee slopes of the eastern mts will likely be a bit warmer at around 30F, and the San Luis Valley is expected to dip into the 5 to 15 degree range.
1044 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 Key Messages: - Slow clearing overnight into Saturday with some warmer temperatures expected.
1038 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 Large-scale subsidence will become increasingly dominant across the Midwest this evening and into Saturday as an upper-level ridge advances eastward into the region.
1047 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) It was chilly heading out the door this morning, but upper ridging and southerly flow today and tomorrow will keep temperatures above- normal through the short term. Highs today will be in the low 60s for most, warming to the upper 60s and 70s by Saturday. Despite the above-normal temperatures, strong radiational cooling tonight with light winds and clear skies will allow lows to fall to near freezing.
Otherwise the low cloud deck has been remaining consistent. The additional cloudiness will keep temperatures toward the cooler side of guidance for highs today.
Air temps are varied in the mid 30s to mid 40s with any light NW wind being the difference for the warmer areas. High pressure of 1030mb over N AR is settling in for the night before exiting stage right over the MS River early on Saturday.
Water vapor imagery highlights a high amplitude ridge-trough couplet across the CONUS which pushed a cold front through the Keys this afternoon. Statistical guidance suggests a slim chance of showers overnight, likely along the troughy spoke (see IR stratocu) pivoting south, to the west of Tampa.
Wind chill values are forecast to reach the low 30s for several hours in the morning and may even reach the upper 20s briefly, north of I-4. Much colder and drier air will overspread the area behind a strong cold front tonight.