Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
633 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 Key Messages: - Snow Chances and Temperatures Today - Warmer on Sunday - Potentially Active Work Week The 18. 00z models are in fairly good agreement that a 500 mb trough will move southeast across the area today. The combination of this trough, cyclonic flow aloft, and steep 900-850 mb lapse rates will continue to produce scattered snow showers across the area for much of today. From late tonight into Sunday, upper level ridging will build across the region. This will result in more sunshine and west and southwest winds bringing warmer air into the region. This will result in high temperatures ranging from the lower 30s to lower 40s.
Water vapor imagery highlights a potent mid to upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes. Pacific short wave energy has phased with this trough, adding to the positive tilt to the entire long wave axis. A cold front is limping to the southeast over the Gulf of Mexico, with thunderstorms maintaining their vigor in advance of the front. High pressure covers the Plains, although a reinforcing cold front pushing into the Red River Valley bisects the high into two nodes. FORECAST The cold front over the Gulf will advance to the southeast today, with the reinforcing front formerly over the southern Plains adding to the southerly push.
Key Messages: - Breezy with unseasonably cold temperatures today from the low 20s northeast to the low 30s southwest.
604 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 (Today and tonight) By daybreak the light and variable wind of early Saturday morning will have yielded to more moderately gusty north wind as another cold front arrives. The ridge of this air mass will extend through the plains through Sunday morning.
508 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2023 The core of the upper low has finally made it's way into the U. The upper ridge over Western CONUS is also slowly moving southeast, bringing northwest flow aloft to the Tri-State area through the weekend. High temperatures will be slightly cooler today with values in to the mid 30s to lower 40s. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper single digits to mid teens tonight with wind chills possibly dropping into the lower single digits above and below zero. Overnight lows are also warmer tomorrow night with temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s.
1154 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 (Rest of Today) After a chilly night of near to just below freezing temperatures, sunshine this morning has warmed up temperatures into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Despite, the sunshine, northerly flow holds afternoon highs in the lower 50s, but with winds this afternoon gusting 20-25 mph it will feel quite brisk outside today.
as a robust/expansive upper level low in Quebec lifts northeastward into the Canadian Maritimes. and a deamplifying ridge over the 4-Corners/Rockies shifts eastward across the Central Plains. Tonight: ~1035 mb high pressure over the Northern Plains will shift southward over the Central Plains this eve and overnight. Expect strengthening southerly (S-SSW) winds -- increasing to 15-25 knots by mid-late afternoon (breeziest south and east of Goodland) -- and noticeably warmer temperatures with highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 20s/30s. expect conditions similar to, albeit slightly warmer and less breezy than, Sunday.
139 PM MDT Sat Mar 18 2023 The core of the upper low has finally made it's way into the U. The upper ridge over Western CONUS is also slowly moving southeast, bringing northwest flow aloft to the Tri-State area through the weekend. High temperatures will be slightly cooler today with values in to the mid 30s to lower 40s. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper single digits to mid teens tonight with wind chills possibly dropping into the lower single digits above and below zero. Overnight lows are also warmer tomorrow night with temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s.
A weak upper trough moving through a large upper ridge will bring some clouds but no precip today. Gusty east-southeast winds to 30 mph will develop across the Snake River Plain due to high pressure to the east and low pressure approaching the west coast.
High pressure will remain in control of the weather across the Quad State area through this time period.
Northwest flow continues with cold air advection through Sunday as high pressure builds into the region. Discussion: Upper trough axis continues to shift eastward tonight and Sunday with an associated trough of low-level cold air advecting within the NW flow aloft. Even though it will be very cold in the near-term, sky conditions will remain partly cloudy to mostly clear with subsidence in the low to mid levels.
Most spots in the lower elevations will find their way into the 10s, with single digit to below zero values expected across the higher elevations. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer as mid-level temperatures warm up a couple of degrees. Afternoon highs should reach the 50s across the plains with 30s to 40s expected for most of the high country. Short wave ridging Sunday night will bring a dry but cool night, especially for the mountain valleys.
Weak short wave pushing through upper level ridge bringing nothing more than some higher level clouds to southeast Idaho. Upper level ridge moves overhead Sunday with another dry day in store with temperatures staying very cool with low and high temperatures Sunday remaining below normal for the latter half of March. Pattern changes Sunday night as upper level trof approaches from the Pacific and moisture moves into the region overnight with snow across the region.
422 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023 A cold front is passing southeast through the forecast area late this afternoon and will exit into VA this evening. High pressure settling over the region and near neutral advection should allow valleys to fall off more.
A hard freeze is expected across the entire area with low temperatures ranging from the low teens to upper 20s deg F.
Weak bits of energy on the backside of the trough will rotate through the area through the remainder of this afternoon. Surface ridging will inch further east into Illinois tonight, acting to dry things out and put an end to snow showers/flurries.
Fog is stuck in near Grants Pass, Roseburg, along the lower Umpqua river down to the Reedsport area, and into the Coos Bay area. Despite all the high to mid-level cloud, we are not expecting it to rain in the region, with the exception of some drizzle along the coast where the fog is being pushed up slope. Again, despite the high clouds, today should be fairly warm, with temperatures approaching normal.
1207 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 Key Messages: - Snow Chances and Temperatures Today - Warmer on Sunday - Potentially Active Work Week The 18. 00z models are in fairly good agreement that a 500 mb trough will move southeast across the area today. The combination of this trough, cyclonic flow aloft, and steep 900-850 mb lapse rates will continue to produce scattered snow showers across the area for much of today. From late tonight into Sunday, upper level ridging will build across the region. This will result in more sunshine and west and southwest winds bringing warmer air into the region. This will result in high temperatures ranging from the lower 30s to lower 40s.
1223 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 (Today and tonight) By daybreak the light and variable wind of early Saturday morning will have yielded to more moderately gusty north wind as another cold front arrives. The ridge of this air mass will extend through the plains through Sunday morning.
(Tonight) A dry cold front is progged to push southeast across the forecast area this evening, bringing a reinforcing blast of cold air tonight. Temperatures plummet after sunset dropping from the upper 40s to lower 50s down into the lower 20s. A Freeze Warning goes into effect at midnight tonight as temperatures drop below freezing.
1210 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 (Today and tonight) The CWA remains on the southwestern periphery of an expansive baroclinic cyclone centered over southern Ontario. At the surface, a weakening cold front was crossing into the TX PH as of 0725Z, and will continue to propagate southward throughout the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon as a 1032 mb anticyclone shifts eastward. With the CWA on the western periphery of the entrance region to the mid- and high-level jet streaks rounding the base of the baroclinic cyclone, the cirrus deck will continue to advect northeastward overhead this afternoon. Therefore, temperatures will be similar to yesterday to perhaps a couple of degrees warmer.
High temperatures today will struggle to reach the freezing mark. This could possibly allow temperatures to be bit cooler than forecast tonight - early Sunday morning.
The region is currently under a weak ridge leaving the region under dry conditions through tonight.
247 PM MDT Sat Mar 18 2023 Relatively mild and dry high pressure will continue to be present over the Northern Rockies through Sunday. Despite the mild afternoons, overnight temperatures will continue to cool well below freezing.
Much cooler temperatures continue through Sunday night as CAA advection continues to usher in much colder air. Highs for tomorrow will be slightly warmer than what was experienced today with temperatures in the 50s across the area.
Relatively warmer ground temperatures may temper minimum potential, though still looks like a few locales may drop below 10F in central Kansas. The deep upper low/trof across the Great Lakes/Midwest responsible for the cold outbreak will move eastward across eastern Canada and the Northeast conus on Sunday with temperatures beginning to moderate across Kansas after a frigid morning.
(This evening through Sunday) Cyclonic northwest flow aloft is set to deamplify tonight ahead of weak ridging in westerly flow for Sunday. Sunday promises a return to breezier SW winds as lee troughing sharpens to our northwest.
This high remains centered right over central South Dakota at mid-afternoon. With warm air advection pattern in place during the day Sunday and prior to a cold front entering from the north by late in the afternoon, daytime readings are anticipated to warm into the 30s east to low to mid 40s across portions. However, with temps warming into the low to mid 30s during the afternoon, this perhaps may dampen impacts a bit.
This forecast period begins with upper level ridging that stretches from just north of the Canadian Yukon Territory, southward through the western United States to southern California. Perturbations pass through the ridge increasing cloudiness at times; however, no precipitation is forecast this weekend.
Freezing conditions were met for much of the area this morning with current temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area. Northerly wind gusts of 20-30 mph will continue through the afternoon, which will make it feel cooler. Northerly winds will switch around to southerly by Sunday afternoon, which will allow for warmer air to begin to return to the area.
Warmer air will move in tomorrow with highs climbing well above freezing.
Low temperatures are expected to be at or below freezing, ranging from the middle 20s to low 30s in the far southeast. By tomorrow morning, most of the region will be below freezing and achieve wind chills in the lower 20s. Also note that with coming out of unseasonably high temperatures to unseasonably low temperatures, check on elderly/vulnerable populations this weekend, and remember to never leave a space heater unattended! Temperatures will remain unseasonably cold throughout Sunday, with highs in the lower middle 40s to lower 50s. /AJ/ As we near the first day of spring, it sure doesn't feel like it as we continue to experience below freezing low temperatures.
It will be a chilly night following the frontal passage, with lows dropping to the lower to mid 40s.
213 PM MDT Sat Mar 18 2023 Dry, seasonable weather will continue across our region this weekend thanks to the ridge overhead. Sunday will be clear again with highs in the 40s to low 50s before the ridge axis crosses our area and clouds move back in from the southeast ahead of the next disturbance. Otherwise winds will turn northerly to easterly across the region on Sunday evening as a backdoor cold front drops south. Arends Overall the general, the shift to the more southerly track of the low has continued into the latest model guidance. The heavily favored clusters still maintain a warmer and less wet end of the model ensemble solutions.
High pressure presently over the western Dakotas will slide off to the southeast through the day today. A weak and dry trough will pass through the region late tonight through Sunday with the main result being increasing sky cover and a wind shift to the northwest. Canadian high pressure will then nudge into northern North Dakota Sunday night. Highs for Sunday will be a little warmer than today topping out in the mid 20s north and east to near 40 in the southwest. Sunday night lows will range from around 0 in the north central to the low teens in the southwest. Conditions start out cool and dry with the surface under influence from high pressure off to the the north.
WV imagery shows an upper trough crossing the Baja Peninsula, and this will bring round #2 to the Warning/Advisory area overnight. Surface winds will veer to the south overnight, but remain light until Sunday afternoon, when leeside troughing increases return flow.
137 PM MDT Sat Mar 18 2023 Water Vapor shows upper low over southeastern Ontario, with upper ridge over the western CONUS and next trof just offshore the west coast. At the surface, ridge covers the Dakotas. Warm front will lift northeast across our area with some gusty southwest winds developing, especially across northeast WY, the Black Hills and southern SD. Very mild weather expected Sunday, with some locations reaching into the 60s in snow free areas south/east of the Black Hills as thermal ridge peaks overhead.
Mid and upper level cloudiness will keep southern sections of West Central Texas above freezing, helped out by a return to light south winds.
Showers and cloudiness are expected to be out of the region by tomorrow morning with cooler and drier conditions moving in. Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s across our Georgia and Alabama counties, and in the low 40s across our Florida counties.
954 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2023 The core of the upper low has finally made it's way into the U. The upper ridge over Western CONUS is also slowly moving southeast, bringing northwest flow aloft to the Tri-State area through the weekend. High temperatures will be slightly cooler today with values in to the mid 30s to lower 40s. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper single digits to mid teens tonight with wind chills possibly dropping into the lower single digits above and below zero. Overnight lows are also warmer tomorrow night with temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s.
Low temperatures Sunday morning are forecast to be in the mid 30s to around 40 for most areas, however some locations in the Hill Country could briefly approach and reach the freezing mark. Highs temperatures Sunday are forecast in the mid to upper 50s, with a few locations possibly into the low 60s across northeast areas near Austin, where some partial clearing is possible.
Overcast skies will help moderate temperatures and cold air advection tonight, keeping lows in the low 40s south of I-10, mid to upper 30s north of Houston, and low 30s north of Huntsville. Tomorrow's pattern will be somewhat similar to today's as another upper level trough pushes through Western Texas on Sunday morning, advecting plenty of mid-to-upper-level moisture to our region while dry air advection from 850mb and below remains in place. Therefore, Sunday night's lows will be noticeably colder with lows reaching the upper 30s to low 40s south of I-10 and the low to mid 30s north of Houston. Below freezing temps are expected north of Conroe.
304 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023 * Very cold for mid March tonight * Scattered snow showers and flurries end this evening * Dry and a little warmer Sunday Arctic air continued to flow into central Indiana this afternoon. With the low water content of the snow, it will blow around easily. Sunshine and some warmer air moving in will bring highs back into the mid and upper 30s.
252 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 TONIGHT: Strong Arctic high pressure builds through the region overnight, weakening winds and backing them to the southwest. Warming really kicks into gear by the afternoon with favorable low level warm air advection, sunshine, weak ridging aloft, and mixing well into the nocturnal inversion. Southwesterly winds will favor locally enhanced downslope winds lee of the MN Buffalo Ridge.
Freezing temperatures will impact a majority of central and northern Georgia tonight, and a freeze warning is in effect.
612 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 (Tonight) A dry cold front is progged to push southeast across the forecast area this evening, bringing a reinforcing blast of cold air tonight. Temperatures plummet after sunset dropping from the upper 40s to lower 50s down into the lower 20s. A Freeze Warning goes into effect at midnight tonight as temperatures drop below freezing.
The colder temperatures have resulted in slippery conditions as readings have only made it into the low to middle 20s at mid afternoon.
Cool advection on northwesterly winds near 10 mph tonight, behind the cold front from today, will allow lows to drop into the 40s. It will be a chilly night following the frontal passage, with lows dropping to the lower to mid 40s.
(Tonight) Breezy/gusty NW winds will continue overnight in wake of a cold front that is pushing SE through the area. In fact, low temperatures tonight may drop as much as 8-10 degrees lower than last night, eventually bottoming out in the low to mid 20s in most locations late tonight into early/mid Sunday morning.
Temperatures will moderate after Sunday, as high pressure builds into the area.
A cold front is passing southeast through the forecast area late this afternoon and will exit into VA this evening. High pressure settling over the region and near neutral advection should allow valleys to fall off more.
-RCG 538 PM MDT Sat Mar 18 2023 (19/00Z TAF Period) Beneath high pressure only scattered mid clouds and thinly broken high clouds can be seen across the area. This forecast period begins with upper level ridging that stretches from just north of the Canadian Yukon Territory, southward through the western United States to southern California. Perturbations pass through the ridge increasing cloudiness at times; however, no precipitation is forecast this weekend.
Currently - A relatively strong cold front, draped northeast to southwest from North and Central Florida to the Bay of Campeche, is advancing southward this evening. Head of this front, the Keys reside in a nebulous pressure field with the Atlantic ridge to our south across Cuba. The lower levels are becoming increasingly moist and confluent, under the influence of a deep mid latitude trough over the eastern United States. Short Term Update - Light southerly to variable breezes will prevail through most of the remainder of tonight as the cold front will remain off to our north. The cold front is expected to finally sweep through the broader forecast area beginning Sunday in our deep Gulf waters.
457 PM MDT Sat Mar 18 2023 Water Vapor shows upper low over southeastern Ontario, with upper ridge over the western CONUS and next trof just offshore the west coast. At the surface, ridge covers the Dakotas. Warm front will lift northeast across our area with some gusty southwest winds developing, especially across northeast WY, the Black Hills and southern SD. Very mild weather expected Sunday, with some locations reaching into the 60s in snow free areas south/east of the Black Hills as thermal ridge peaks overhead.
Evening satellite imagery showing increasing high clouds tonight ahead of the next upper trough entering the Pac NW.
850 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 00Z Upper air analysis shows an upper level low centered near Whitefish Bay and embedded within a large upper level trough encompassing the Continental United States east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, 01Z surface analysis places this morning's reinforcing cold front over Central Alabama, Southern Mississippi, and Louisiana with a 1034 mb ridge of high pressure centered over Eastern Nebraska. Relatively clear skies for the remainder of the night, cold air advection, excellent radiational cooling, and surface dewpoints in the teens to lower 20s should will result in temperatures going below freezing areawide tonight.
604 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023 A cool and very dry air mass is moving into the forecast area behind this morning's cold front. This will lead to several nights of subfreezing temperatures for portions of the forecast area starting tonight.
Currently expect lows to bottom out in the low to mid teens, but if winds drop off in a particular location, it's certainly possible that temps could fall into the upper single digits.
541 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 TONIGHT: Strong Arctic high pressure builds through the region overnight, weakening winds and backing them to the southwest. Warming really kicks into gear by the afternoon with favorable low level warm air advection, sunshine, weak ridging aloft, and mixing well into the nocturnal inversion. Southwesterly winds will favor locally enhanced downslope winds lee of the MN Buffalo Ridge.
725 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023 A cool and very dry air mass is moving into the forecast area behind this morning's cold front. This will lead to several nights of subfreezing temperatures for portions of the forecast area starting tonight.
Current temps are several degrees warmer compared to the previous forecast. Will this be enough to keep the overnight lows warmer than the current forecast? It's hard to say. Northwest flow continues with cold air advection through Sunday as high pressure builds into the region. Discussion: Upper trough axis continues to shift eastward tonight and Sunday with an associated trough of low-level cold air advecting within the NW flow aloft. Even though it will be very cold in the near-term, sky conditions will remain partly cloudy to mostly clear with subsidence in the low to mid levels.
621 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Cyclonic northwest flow aloft is set to deamplify tonight ahead of weak ridging in westerly flow for Sunday. Sunday promises a return to breezier SW winds as lee troughing sharpens to our northwest.
Northerly winds will switch around to southerly by Sunday afternoon, which will allow for warmer air to begin to return to the area.
823 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023 A cool and very dry air mass is moving into the forecast area behind this morning's cold front. This will lead to several nights of subfreezing temperatures for portions of the forecast area starting tonight.
Warmer weather returns Monday and continues into the weekend.
This forecast period begins with upper level ridging that stretches from just north of the Canadian Yukon Territory, southward through the western United States to southern California. Perturbations pass through the ridge increasing cloudiness at times; however, no precipitation is forecast this weekend. Monday, the next upper level trof begins to impact our region.
As such, did up the lows a degree or so. A cold front is passing southeast through the forecast area late this afternoon and will exit into VA this evening. High pressure settling over the region and near neutral advection should allow valleys to fall off more. Strong high pressure just off the eastern seaboard will tend to keep the effects of any disturbances or storm systems to our west and northwest until the end of the week, Dys 6-7.
346 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 (Issued 346 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023) Today through Monday: A sunny and warmer day is in store as subsidence is present with in the northwest 500 mb flow. Southwest winds will pick up this afternoon into this evening as a low pressure axis sinks down into the area tightening the pressure gradient and bringing with it some stronger winds aloft.