Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Although temperatures are not expected to bottom out as cool as they did this morning, another cooler than normal night is on tap for the CWA. This low will continue to occasionally send some mid and high level clouds across the CWA but these clouds will not affect temperatures tonight. Mid evening surface analysis still showed a ridge across our CWA from the northeast that will help keep a relatively dry low level flow across our CWA. Together these features will help temperatures bottom out in the lower 60s across most of our area.
756 PM MDT Tue May 30 2023 Not too much to update this evening, showers are mainly falling apart this evening as H5 ridge continues to build over the area. TFJ AFTERNOON UPDATE: Update for this afternoon first focused on raising PoPs above the NBM for areas associated with the higher elevations out east including the Big Sheeps and Sheridan county.
717 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Prevailing flow will continue to shift about to become more out of the south today as the influence of the forming low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico extends more influence over the region. High temperatures for this afternoon will peak in the upper 80s and lower 90s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 80s along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s for the shoreline and for areas along the St Johns River.
627 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure continue will continue to control the weather pattern through the end of the week.
This low will slowly track southeast over the next few days, keeping southerly flow across interior northern CA.
552 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 (This evening through Wednesday Night) A weak disturbance embedded in the backside of a large upper level low in the Central Gulf is passing through SE Texas today enhancing thunderstorm development. Another weak disturbance will move through the area tomorrow bringing again the chance of afternoon thunderstorms, but increasing dry air and upperlevel ridging to the west will limit storm coverage compared to the past few days. The increasing heights due to the building ridge will help bring warming temperatures to the region with afternoon highs rising into the upper 80s to low 90s.
1002 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Hot and mostly sunny conditions persist for the week with upper level ridging over the eastern half of North America. High pressure and strong upper level ridging east/northeast of the Ohio River Valley are leading to anomalously deep easterly flow through 350 hPa across the Ohio Valley. Forecast lows are in the lower to middle 60s. A broad area of high pressure and ridging centered to the east remains in place Wednesday and Wednesday night with very little change in sensible weather. Lows remain mild Wednesday night- in the lower to middle 60s under mostly clear skies with light southeasterly flow.
914 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure will build over the area Wednesday and during the second half of the week, raising temperatures back above normal.
There will be a slight chance for isolated to scattered afternoon convection but based on the latest High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF), the highest probability of convection will be concentrated in extreme southwest Kansas as the next upper-level trough approaches. Simultaneously, an upper level trough positioned over the western Great Lakes will gradually progress westward toward the Northern Plains.
502 PM MDT Tue May 30 2023 With weak upper-level high pressure to our east, pockets of energy are moving through Wyoming today from the WSW. Far northern WY could see some lingering showers overnight, mainly over the higher terrain. Wednesday appears to be much of the same, though the flow will be more from the south as the strong upper-level low moves from southern CA toward Arizona, and a trough moves from WA/OR into north-central ID and western MT. Max temps Wed afternoon will likely be 3-5 degrees warmer than Tuesday, with mid to upper 80s from Worland to Greybull, and low 70s to near 80 elsewhere.
Do not expect cloud cover to have much impact on temperatures tonight, with lows in the low to mid 60s. 14 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Wednesday) Residual low to mid level troughing remains over the area extending west from the upper low off the coast of North Carolina. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.
Low relative humidity values in the lower levels will likely prevent any shower or isolated thunderstorm from becoming surface based.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night: A weak cutoff low will be positioned off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with another upper low over the Gulf of Mexico, providing weak ridging across the area with a much stronger blocking ridge to the north centered across New England. At the surface, the northeast flow will continue across the area around weak low pressure off the NC coast. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal with the northeast flow regime, with highs around 80 or in the lower 80s, and nighttime lows in the lower to mid 60s.
On Wednesday, a passing low pressure system will bring isolated to scattered rain showers, and a slight chance of thunderstorms, to much of the area.
Just a few mid and high level clouds expected across the area tonight as high pressure continues to remain in control. Pattern Synopsis: Broad ridging will encompass most of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the second half of the work week with impressively weak flow through the vertical column in place over the Great Lakes. This will lead to a somewhat nebulous surface pattern across the region with relatively high pressure in place heading into the weekend. Southerly low-level flow on the backside of high pressure will help advect moisture northward across the region, leading to the potential development of scattered showers and storms during the afternoon.
527 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Strong and persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.
636 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 (This afternoon through tonight) It's a skosh warmer today compared to yesterday, but it's still a glorious day out there.
627 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) An upper low will move inland over southern California today. This will dig into the trough and amplify the ridge downstream over west Texas. Wednesday looks to be more active with favorable upper level dynamics as the aforementioned upper low continues to track eastward, displacing the ridge over our area.
818 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Dry weather and a warming trend is expected through the rest of the week under high pressure.
High temperatures are forecast to warm into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon while low temperatures will stay in the mid 50s to lower 60s. An upper level low over SoCal is forecast to dig into the Desert southwest Thursday while a ridge builds over the Northeast. Multiple disturbance from the upper low will trudge through the region resulting in continued precipitation chances through the week.
(This evening through Wednesday) The low pressure system located off the coast of North Carolina continues to drift northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast allowing for a wedge of slightly cooler than average air to infiltrate northeast Georgia.
Seasonable temperatures continue with highs from the mid 80s east to the mid 90s west and lows in the low to mid 70s.
Otherwise, current temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s are forecast to warm into the low to mid 80s this afternoon.
There is a low end chance (<15%) of a shower or thunderstorm making it to our far eastern counties in the Coastal Plains in the afternoon, but for now will persist with the dry forecast as we remain under mid-level ridging today. Low clouds look to develop over much of the area tonight, leaving lows a degree or two warmer than this morning. Ridging begins to shift east on Thursday, but still expect a dry and warm day with similar highs to those of this afternoon.
diminishing as they work northeast into the highlands into the midnight hour.
342 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 Period of dry and seasonably warm weather continues as upper level ridging and its surface pressure reflection hold firmly in place. 00z upper air analysis confirms the ridge is strengthening with max 500mb heights of 583 dam observed via Buffalo RAOB. Full effects of this blocking pattern will be felt locally over the next several days as the center of the ridge strengthens further and retrogrades overhead, with 500mb heights pushing into the 99th percentile for early June standards per NAEFS.
434 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 (Today through Thursday) A quiet cool night with temps dropping into the mid 50s will give way to another cooler than normal day tomorrow with temps in the upper 70s and low 80s.
Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected through much of the period as upper ridging remains across the central and eastern CONUS. The upper ridge will begin to retrograde westward late in the week. Expect highs in the low 90s with a few spots potentially warming into the mid 90s. Ensemble guidance suggest the upper ridge will continue to retrograde, allowing a deepening trough across the northeast CONUS to push a cold front towards central Indiana at the end of the period.
Discussion: We will continue to be in a persistent weak flow regime as we sit between a large scale ridge to our north/northeast and a weak upper low off the Gulf Coast.
343 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure, and associated cool and moist northeasterly flow, will extend across VA and the Carolinas through Thursday.
Temperatures are very mild, ranging from the mid 50s, in the cooler eastern Kentucky Coalfield valleys, to the mid 60s, in open countryside west of I-75, north of I-64 and over the thermal belt ridges. Through the short-term period, the low circulation off the Outer Banks will dissipate while some of its remnant upper level energy retrogrades westward into the Ohio Valley over the next couple of days. The upper level high over New York will also retrograde to near/over Lake Huron. It will be seasonably warm with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
208 AM MDT Wed May 31 2023 Mean western CONUS trough will continue to support unsettled weather through most of the period. SW CONUS upper low will advect north into the region, supporting increasing coverage of showers/storms over the region toward the end of the work week. Approaching upper trough will support ongoing pos theta-e ad adv overnight tonight, with possibly a few elevated showers storms late. Best coverage/chances for precip will be Thur/Fri as a slow moving upper trough advects over the region with sufficient ll moisture, supporting locally heavy rainfall over the western third.
Showers and thunderstorms will focus across Lemhi County and southwest Montana, along the north-northwest periphery of the low pressure system. Low pressure will remain nearly stationary across southeast Idaho on Thursday.
131 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 Low pressure will slowly drift offshore today with less coverage of showers and more sunshine.
300 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure, and associated cool and moist northeasterly flow, will extend across VA and the Carolinas through Thursday.
Upper level ridge centered over the Eastern Great Lakes/New York will continue to slowly build and retrograde to the west during the work week, reaching the Central Great Lakes by Thursday evening (~585 DAM at 500 MB), although all euro ensemble members keep heights under 588 DAM.
339 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 Strong and persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.
Fortunately, rain chances continue off and on into the weekend, with pops ranging in the 30-60% range as a broad closed low remains across the central Rockies.
An upper low/trough is moving over Southern California with another upper trough over southern Canada/northern North Dakota. An upper ridge extends from over West Texas to western Kansas. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday or slightly warmer with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. The upper trough over Southern California will move a little eastward on Wednesday. Otherwise, storms may develop in western Kansas and western Nebraska closer to the upper trough/low and move eastward. Temperatures on Wednesday may be slightly cooler than the previous day but fairly similar. The previously mentioned upper trough will move over the Four Corners region on Thursday. The edge of this trough will extend over Nebraska and Kansas.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ The return of low-amplitude ridging will largely bring an end to our pattern of daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity, with most areas expected to remain dry today. Have retained some low PoPs across the southeast this afternoon which will remain slightly displaced from the building ridge axis and closer in proximity to a mid-level weakness across Southeast Texas. Thursday will essentially consist of a persistence forecast for now, with broad but weak upper ridging and height rises in place overhead.
139 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure will expand across the area from the north through the weekend while weak low pressure remains off the coast. An interesting upper air pattern will prevail, featuring a Rex Block over the eastern states and nearby Atlantic, with an upper level low in the Gulf of Mexico. Any large scale forcing with one cyclone off North Carolina or in the Gulf will stay away from the local vicinity through the night.
Most of the activity has occurred across the waters and all of the Florida Keys minus the Lower Keys. This is thanks to an upper level trough in the central Gulf of Mexico which is providing deep southwesterly flow aloft. Given the trough to our west, the decent moisture return in the low levels, the forecast is on track for the overnight. Rain chances will remain elevated through the overnight and as such, saw no need to deviate from the high-end chance PoPs (50 percent) we currently have.
Weak western CONUS upper trough gradually reorganizes as an upper high migrates into the Central/Northern Plains. This blocking pattern isn't very warm aloft, with 700mb temperatures only ever about +4 to +8C, so any weak mid level feature or even just surface convergence is enough to help support convection, though with a low confidence on any timing since there isn't much consistency or even resolution of any subtle features.
RH's will be a little higher than yesterday, with the NAEFS showing 90th climo percentile humidity values in the lower levels in the west half of the UP and PWAT values across the UP exceeding 1 inch. Medium range and ensemble packages continue to suggest the extended pattern will be dominated by a mid-level ridge overhead.
/Issued 1234 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023/ /Through Thursday/ The return of low-amplitude ridging will largely bring an end to our pattern of daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity, with most areas expected to remain dry today. Have retained some low PoPs across the southeast this afternoon which will remain slightly displaced from the building ridge axis and closer in proximity to a mid-level weakness across Southeast Texas. Thursday will essentially consist of a persistence forecast for now, with broad but weak upper ridging and height rises in place overhead.
with 07z/2am analysis showing surface dewpoints in the lower 60s along/east of the I-57 corridor. Given increased moisture and a weakness in the prevailing upper ridge axis providing subtle forcing, think widely scattered thunderstorms will develop during peak heating. With general subsidence beneath the ridge, areal coverage will be sparse. As has been advertised by the past several model runs, the center of the upper ridge currently positioned over New England will retrograde westward by the end of the week.
(Today through Thursday Night ) A blocking pattern continues to promote summerlike/stagnant conditions locally, with mostly dry weather, above average temperatures, and a light east/southeast wind. Troughing is noted along the west/east coasts, with ridging in the middle of the country. At the surface, while high pressure is slowly weakening, it is still the dominant weather feature.
114 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Although temperatures are not expected to bottom out as cool as they did this morning, another cooler than normal night is on tap for the CWA. This low will continue to occasionally send some mid and high level clouds across the CWA but these clouds will not affect temperatures tonight. Mid evening surface analysis still showed a ridge across our CWA from the northeast that will help keep a relatively dry low level flow across our CWA. Together these features will help temperatures bottom out in the lower 60s across most of our area.
Dry conditions will continue for most of the area into this weekend with generally cooler than average late May to early June temperatures. Mostly clear skies across southeast Arizona this morning as latest WV/IR satellite imagery shows a mid/upper low currently located near Los Angeles. The coolest temperatures of the forecast period will settle in on Thursday as lower heights and broad troughing dominate across Arizona.
Also adjusted hourly temperatures which were cooler than expected in areas affected by showers and storms, as well as hourly dewpoints.
It will be a warm day with highs in the lower to mid 80s in most areas. Flow aloft turns to the SW as an upper trough moves inland from the Pacific.
Can expect afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Above normal temperatures will continue through the remainder of the forecast period, with daily highs in the mid to upper 80s, reaching the low 90s over the weekend, mainly over the eastern Ozarks and into central Missouri.
RH's will be a little higher, with the NAEFS showing 90th climo percentile humidity values in the lower levels in the west half and PWAT values across the UP exceeding 1 inch. Medium range and ensemble packages continue to suggest the extended pattern will be dominated by a mid-level ridge overhead.
201 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 Low pressure will slowly drift offshore today with less coverage of showers and more sunshine.
934 PM PDT Tue May 30 2023 A weak cold front passage will cool temperatures into the 70s Wednesday and Thursday.
Overall we are looking at a fairly quiet near-term period as high pressure over the Northeast continues to be the main influence.
126 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 A ridge of high pressure is expected to build from the New England Coast back west over the local area through Thursday.
The best model consensus in the latest trends and most likely outcome has been to continue the low moreso in the open Gulf and away from our land areas, which would keep precipitation quite limited, especially in the next day or two. PoPs are higher for Thursday due to the general model consensus indicating the low will meander close to the Florida panhandle, enhancing some moisture and rainfall potential slightly for our area.
1057 PM PDT Tue May 30 2023 Cooler temperatures in the short term as winds return to northwesterly. (This afternoon through Wednesday) Current satellite showing most of the high clouds associated with the stubborn, slow moving upper low are now mostly out of our region with a few lingering here and there. As the low moves inland through this evening, north/northwest winds will increase along coastal areas through midweek. Some remnant cloudiness from a deeper marine layer will likely remain through Wednesday as a weak trough associated with a weakening upper low in the Gulf of Alaska digs in slightly behind the exiting upper low.
In general, the warmer and drier models verified better over the past 24 hours.
The low that has been sitting off of the coast of south-central California is on the move today. At the same time this low is on the move, troughing moves into the PNW and eventually a closed low develops over southern Oregon on Thursday.
(Today and tonight) The current synoptic pattern will continue for one more day before the ridge breaks down and we transition to a more widespread rain pattern. With the ridge starting to weaken and a low level jet slightly farther to the east (edging into western Oklahoma) than last night, storms will have a slightly better chance at maintaining into our forecast area--at least for a bit.
313 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Summary: The blocking pattern continues giving hot weather for this time of year though widespread rain does not appear likely within this forecast aside from afternoon convection.
332 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 A ridge of high pressure is expected to build from the New England Coast back west over the local area through Thursday.
1054 PM MDT Tue May 30 2023 With weak upper-level high pressure to our east, pockets of energy are moving through Wyoming today from the WSW. Far northern WY could see some lingering showers overnight, mainly over the higher terrain. Wednesday appears to be much of the same, though the flow will be more from the south as the strong upper-level low moves from southern CA toward Arizona, and a trough moves from WA/OR into north-central ID and western MT.
1126 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 (This evening through Wednesday Night) A weak disturbance embedded in the backside of a large upper level low in the Central Gulf is passing through SE Texas today enhancing thunderstorm development. Another weak disturbance will move through the area tomorrow bringing again the chance of afternoon thunderstorms, but increasing dry air and upperlevel ridging to the west will limit storm coverage compared to the past few days. The increasing heights due to the building ridge will help bring warming temperatures to the region with afternoon highs rising into the upper 80s to low 90s.
333 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure will expand across the area from the north through the weekend while weak low pressure remains off the coast. A weak cold front is currently oozing south across the SC Lowcountry with winds turning from the northeast. Behind the cold front, stratus has continued to expand in coverage with skies quickly starting to go overcast. Today: The Rex Block remains across the eastern United States with weak low pressure off of the NC coast. At 850 MB, low pressure off of the NC coast will aid in pushing the weak cold front down towards KSAV, or just south of KSAV, with only slight cooling forecast.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we currently have lows over each coast with a weak ridge centered near the TX/NM line. The big difference today though is that the low over the western states will move a little east today, weakening the ridge and shifting the axis over to Central Texas. The weaker and displaced ridge axis will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Tomorrow the upper low over Arizona continues moving east into western New Mexico increasing zonal flow over the CWA. The weaker ridge does further decrease temperatures by a couple more degrees keeping highs mostly in the 80s which is a nice start to June.
132 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 Strong and persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.
A dome of high pressure remains in place across the eastern CONUS, centered over the Northeast. Temperatures range through the 60s for the most part, with SDF and LEX lingering in the lower 70s. Forecast soundings and HREF data suggest modest destabilization will occur due to strong sfc heating and sfc dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
As a 500 mb low off the Carolina coast weakens, a ridge will build across the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday setting the stage for a summer like pattern. Slightly above normal high temperatures in the upper 80s can be expected along with an increase in humidity as dewpoints warm into the low to mid 60s. The synoptic setup will feature an omega block pattern for the upcoming weekend as a ridge axis builds into Manitoba Canada. While high temperatures will be hot in the low 90s, lower humidity can be expected as east to northeast flow at the sfc allows drier air with daily dewpoints returning to the 50s.