Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today) A cold front continues to slowly sag southeast through the area as seen by a wind shift to the northwest and any remaining convection remaining to our south across central Alabama. With high pressure at the surface building into the region today, expect mostly sunny conditions to develop across the region and lower RH values as dewpoints drop back into the mid 60s. Thus, in spite of the northerly flow, the sunshine and warm/dry conditions will allow temperatures to warm into the low to mid 90s in most locations by the afternoon.
Tomorrow: There is a Marginal Risk to Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow as storms initiate in the early morning hours (around 5 AM) along an elevated warm front in central Nebraska. Though, afternoon highs may be a few degrees cooler if cloud cover lingers long into the afternoon.
Otherwise, light winds, mostly clear skies and dew points in the 60s support leaving overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Increasing large scale ascent combined with low-level theta-e advection ahead of an approaching cold front will likely support showers and thunderstorms.
The heat dome will come along this the low and temperatures will creep up a few degrees but arrive in full force for Monday. There is some moisture that has infiltrated the High and this will lead to an increase in cloud cover which will likely not be enough for any relief. Highs look to top out in the 105 to 110 range in the desert valleys of Utah and 100 to 105 over many of the lower western Colorado valleys. The probability of more widespread wind gusts near 30 mph are higher over northern Utah and northwest Colorado on Monday as the northern portion of this high begins to break down by the arrival of upstream energy.
As a deep upper low evident on latest water vapor imagery over southern Ontario/Manitoba pivots into northern Wisconsin, it will push a cold front southeastward toward Illinois later today. Thanks to increasing mid-level flow on the southwest periphery of the upper low, 0-6km bulk shear values are progged to increase to 35-40kt. Barnes The cold front will settle southward through central Illinois on Monday, possibly triggering a few thunderstorms south of I-72. Cooler/drier air will filter southward on Monday.
141 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 A weak cold front will move east of the region this morning. A weak cold front will pass through the region before dawn.
1225 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 (This evening through Sunday) A slow moving and nearly stalled cold front currently south of the I-20 corridor has shifted winds to the north to northeast behind it with some breezier and slightly cooler conditions. However, Heat Advisories will remain in place through early this evening for the counties south of the I-20 corridor since warmer temperatures aloft remain steadfast over the area.
321 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 High pressure works in this afternoon through Monday morning, with lower humidity.
243 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Satellite imagery this morning continues to show northwest flow over the region with a ridge in the west and trough over the Great Lakes. This northwesterly flow will keep smoke in the forecast, however some easing of the wildfire smoke is expected as winds become weaker through the column under the ridge. This ridge will also allow today to be warm and mostly dry, with temperatures warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s. A boundary out east will allow a weak (10% or less) chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm, however, given the warm mid levels and ridge overhead, generally cloudiness is more likely along this boundary.
Otherwise, broad upper trofing will persist to our north thru the period, as a sfc boundary moves east of our area on Sunday. Any convection that does develop will likely be limited to the higher elevations and perhaps the SC Upstate, but a lack of deeper moisture will yield little in the way of instability to work with. Highs temperatures should be a bit cooler tomorrow, but may still top out just above climatology.
1233 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Dew points are several degrees cooler than they were at this time last night, and they will continue to drop. Current dew point temps are right at 70 degrees for most and by Sunday afternoon, they will be in the low-to-mid 60s. (This afternoon through Sunday Night) A morning/early afternoon wave of showers and thunderstorms linger in the east at forecast time and while those should exit the Plateau in the next couple of hours, what they have left in their wake is dew points in the low to mid 70s.
The main upper level ridge over the central/southern plains has moved a bit further to the west.
1151 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (This evening through Monday) An upper ridge continues over the west coast with a large upper low centered over Canada, affecting much of the central and eastern U. The front will lift north as a warm front Monday. High temperatures will mainly be in the lower to mid 90s Sunday and Monday.
Aloft, ridging is situated over the desert SW, extending east, while troughing extends from Canada to the Ozarks resulting in a NW flow overhead. Tomorrow, ridging aloft will shift west a bit as the trough to our north digs further south/southeast. With more convection/cloud cover afternoon highs tomorrow look to be a couple of degrees cooler than today, but will still range from the mid to upper 90s. At the same time, the ridge to our west will begin to strengthen and slowly shift eastward.
(Today through Monday Night ) A persistence fcst wl prevail over the FA thru the short term, w/ slightly cooler and drier air transitioning back towards hot and muggy by Mon night as Wrly to S/Wrly sfc winds resume. Upper flow wl stay amplified over the CONUS b/w persistent Wrn US ridging & high pressure, and Great Lakes troughing.
The upper low that has been dominating the synoptic pattern the past few days is located over southeast Manitoba, and is projected to move southeast over the Great Lakes region through the day today. Monday will be a bit warmer and mostly quiet through the day as a ridge axis approaches but also flattens, with highs in the mid 70s east to mid 80s southwest. Guidance isn't advertising much in terms of instability (up to 1000 J/kg), but shear is quite strong (50-60 knots), and there is some signal that the low-level jet will kick in late in the evening over western North Dakota.
112 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Upper level high centered near the Four Corner Region still in place for the forecast period with a ridge built up through the CWA.
Currently at the sfc a weak boundary is draped across the nrn part of SoDak, with high pressure entrenched across the Rockies. HRRR and Hi-res NAM cont to show smoke will cont to ooze into our cwa through the weekend before making a slow retreat back to the north Monday with return flow as upper ridge sitting to the west begins to collapse just a bit and shift a bit further to the east. Monday will see return flow back to the region with the approach of 500hpa ridge axis.
1154 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) The mid to upper level high will continue to maintain a grip over the area with temperatures in or just shy of the triple digits this afternoon for inland areas and in the 90s along the coast.
400 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 With an upper level ridge over Montana, expect hot temperatures today, with another very warm day on Monday.
743 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 A weak cold front will move east of the region this morning. A cold front will slowly move across the region early this morning.
538 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 (Today through Monday) Key Message: - Dangerous heat continues A strong 594 DM upper level ridge will remain over South Texas through Monday maintaining hot and dry conditions.
As the main H500 high pressure system moves closer to the Panhandles, the main areas for perturbations to develop will be displaced further to the east over Kansas and central Oklahoma.
The primary synoptic-scale feature in the short term period is a broad deep closed low moving slowly east-southeastward across Ontario. The higher concentratedÂ smoke and haze should shift east during the evening and night, with minor visibilityÂ reductions and haze lingering. Regardless of the timing, one of the two mechanisms should offer the greatest convective potential into the evening and overnight, and this is when we have the highest precipitation probabilities.
518 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 A weak cold front was crossing the region overnight and it will make its jump/transition across the Appalachians this morning.
Dissipation of fog and nocturnal stratus unveils VFR ceilings for the daytime hours owing to large scale subsidence and the eventual passage of a cold front this afternoon. A second cold front arrives early Monday morning, although guidance has trended toward a dry fropa that would only offer some increased cloud potential toward the end of the TAF period. Additional scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front, but severe weather is not expected as instability will be lacking during this portion of the diurnal cycle and moisture transport into the area in advance of the cold front will be minor. Depending on where the cold front and resulting low level convergence is by Monday afternoon, there may be a better flare up of showers and storms.
1045 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Weak boundary/trough is moving through portions of north GA. The main upper level ridge over the central/southern plains has moved a bit further to the west.
(Now through Monday) A large upper level trough continues across the eastern states through the period. Deeper low level moisture and increased convergence will exist along and south of this boundary and this is where the highest rain chances will be located this afternoon. Outside of the cooling effect from storms, it will again be very hot and muggy with temps in the low to mid and 90s and heat index values up to around 110. Slightly lower rain chances expected on Monday as an upper ridge over the southwestern states expands eastward. High will again climb into the low to mid 90s with heat index values of 105 to 110.
Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the 80s to even low 90s. Monday temperatures are forecast to be even warmer with widespread high temperatures in the mid-to upper-90s.
A strong California ridge will shift east across the area through the first part of the week, bringing very hot and dry conditions through Monday.
Chambers Satellite imagery this morning continues to show northwest flow over the region with a ridge in the west and trough over the Great Lakes. This northwesterly flow will keep smoke in the forecast, however some easing of the wildfire smoke is expected as winds become weaker through the column under the ridge. This ridge will also allow today to be warm and mostly dry, with temperatures warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s. A boundary out east will allow a weak (10% or less) chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm, however, given the warm mid levels and ridge overhead, generally cloudiness is more likely along this boundary.
(Rest of Today) Behind a cold front, we are feeling a bit misled.
714 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 (Today through Monday) Anomalous heat and summertime convection will be likely once again today as high pressure continues to build over South Florida. Generally southwesterly flow along the periphery of the high will favor increased diurnal heating and a delayed start to convective activity, allowing temperatures to reach the mid 90s and heat indices to approach the 110-112 deg F range, especially over the East Coast metro areas. Temperatures will remain elevated, with highs reaching the low 90s and heat indices in the 105-108 deg F range across Miami-Dade county, where a Heat Advisory will be in effect from 7PM Sunday night through 7PM Monday night.
High level moisture working its way around the periphery of the strong ridge over the west is bringing some high clouds to the region early this morning. Current temperatures are very mild, mainly in the 60s and 70s in the mountains (except mid 50s in some of the higher mountain valleys), and 70s and 80s across the Central Valley.
332 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Warmer and drier air is moving over Colorado and we should be nearly cloud free today. Forecast temperatures look about right, 3 to 6 degrees warmer than yesterday. Areas with drainage winds like thermal belt locations in the foothills could stay pretty warm though as it will be warmer off the surface.
402 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Upper level high centered near the Four Corner Region still in place for the forecast period with a ridge built up through the CWA.
525 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 (Today) A cold front continues to slowly sag southeast through the area as seen by a wind shift to the northwest and any remaining convection remaining to our south across central Alabama. With high pressure at the surface building into the region today, expect mostly sunny conditions to develop across the region and lower RH values as dewpoints drop back into the mid 60s. Thus, in spite of the northerly flow, the sunshine and warm/dry conditions will allow temperatures to warm into the low to mid 90s in most locations by the afternoon.
Temperatures will increase into the lower to mid 90s this afternoon.
A weak cold front was crossing the region overnight and it will make its jump/transition across the Appalachians this morning.
654 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 High pressure works in this afternoon through Monday morning, with lower humidity.
702 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) A persistence fcst wl prevail over the FA thru the short term, w/ slightly cooler and drier air transitioning back towards hot and muggy by Mon night as Wrly to S/Wrly sfc winds resume. Upper flow wl stay amplified over the CONUS b/w persistent Wrn US ridging & high pressure, and Great Lakes troughing.
357 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Several waves of low pressure will move northeast along a stalled boundary resulting in additional scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
/14 (Now through Monday) A large upper level trough continues across the eastern states through the period. Deeper low level moisture and increased convergence will exist along and south of this boundary and this is where the highest rain chances will be located this afternoon. Outside of the cooling effect from storms, it will again be very hot and muggy with temps in the low to mid and 90s and heat index values up to around 110. Slightly lower rain chances expected on Monday as an upper ridge over the southwestern states expands eastward. High will again climb into the low to mid 90s with heat index values of 105 to 110.
Clouds will begin to increase in coverage late tonight into early Monday morning, as an are of low pressure approaches from the west.
A few more showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow with high temperatures generally in the low 90s.
244 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Key Message -Monday will be another coolish day, but the tide is turning toward warmer weather again Clouds and winds will decrease during the early to mid evening, leading to another cool night (upper 40s).
355 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 A weak disturbance will bring scattered thunderstorms to the region this afternoon, with additional storms then developing overnight into Monday along a cold front.
A dry, upper level ridge axis is moving over the forecast area this morning, and will continue to track eastward today. A cold front is still on track to arrive Monday afternoon, introducing more widespread gusty winds for far east Oregon and southwest Idaho.
While shear is relatively low this afternoon, the high instability combined with cell mergers and large low-level lapse rates is leading to a favorable environment for pulse-severe storms. A weak impulse moving through the base of the broad upper level trough will help keep thunderstorm activity around on Monday, but activity will be a little less widespread. With drier mid-level air moving southeast through the trough, this should bring drier conditions across our Alabama/Georgia counties on Monday. Temperatures will be little warmer as well with drier conditions in place across some of the forecast area.
104 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Ridge building in from the west is producing sunny hot and dry conditions for the area this afternoon. Weak energy flowing over the ridge and down the east side will bring a slight chance for a brief light shower through early evening, but nothing of consequence. Thermal trof to the west of the divide will try to pull smoke back into central and western zones overnight, but at lesser concentrations compared to the past few days. Strong ridge and pre-frontal downslope winds will push smoke eastward through the day on Monday, as well as push temperatures into the mid 90s in many areas. High based thunderstorms are expected to develop over western areas as a weak Pacific cold front moves in during the mid afternoon hours.
few to scattered cloud cover and the return of southerly winds will aid in afternoon temps warming into the lower 90s for most locations.
1252 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) A persistence fcst wl prevail over the FA thru the short term, w/ slightly cooler and drier air transitioning back towards hot and muggy by Mon night as Wrly to S/Wrly sfc winds resume. Upper flow wl stay amplified over the CONUS b/w persistent Wrn US ridging & high pressure, and Great Lakes troughing.
A ridge has built over the region and is causing hot, dry conditions this afternoon. Tomorrow that ridge will break down causing warm, dry, windy conditions on Monday. Part of the ridge break down is a dry cold front that will pass through central Idaho and western Montana in the morning and through southwest Montana in the afternoon. The strongest winds won't be with the cold front passage in the morning, rather they'll be behind the cold front in the afternoon. There isn't much moisture to work with as the ridge breaks down, so widespread showers and thunderstorms are not expected.
1130 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Updated Aviation Discussion With an upper level ridge over Montana, expect hot temperatures today, with another very warm day on Monday.
Will also be keeping an eye on temperatures over the next few hours with the smoke/haze likely to keep conditions cooler than would otherwise be the case. The primary synoptic-scale feature in the short term period is a broad deep closed low moving slowly east-southeastward across Ontario. The higher concentratedÂ smoke and haze should shift east during the evening and night, with minor visibilityÂ reductions and haze lingering. Regardless of the timing, one of the two mechanisms should offer the greatest convective potential into the evening and overnight, and this is when we have the highest precipitation probabilities.
917 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 With an upper level ridge over Montana, expect hot temperatures today, with another very warm day on Monday.
413 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 A cold front will slowly move across the area Monday into Monday night.
221 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 An upper low over northern Minnesota is forecast to sweep across Lake Superior and Ontario overnight and then push into Quebec on Monday. Potent upper low currently over northern MN is forecast to move across Lake Superior late tonight and then Ontario into NW Quebec on Monday. Persistent pattern to continue with large upper high and extreme heat over southwest states and troughing over the Great Lakes.
941 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Ohio Valley to the Carolina Coast will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather today. A warm frontal boundary will drift north toward the Commonwealth tonight and Saturday, bringing a few showers to southwestern and south central portions of the state later this evening into Saturday.
546 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure will result in dry weather today. Low pressure moves through tonight into Saturday spreading showers across mainly southern parts of the region.
412 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023 The low over the central Plains will continue to slowly progress northeast into Iowa by end of day Saturday, weakening as it goes. Some showers and thunderstorms have been developing again on the nose of the inverted trough extending from the low. Best shear and CAPE remains south of I-90 closer to the low.
417 AM MDT Fri May 12 2023 Key Messages: 1) Wrap around precipitation gradually ending this morning over the Pikes Peak region and Palmer Divide 2) Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will rebuild over the mountains this afternoon and evening, though intensity will be less than the past couple days Upper level low ever so slowly pulling away into nwrn KS/srn NE early this morning, with a fairly pronounced weakening of the wrap around band on the south side of the Palmer Divide since midnight.
629 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Ohio Valley to the Carolina Coast will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather today. A warm frontal boundary will drift north toward the Commonwealth tonight and Saturday, bringing a few showers to southwestern and south central portions of the state later this evening into Saturday.
640 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 As a warm front lifts north and moisture increases across the region expect to see an increasing potential for shower and thunderstorm development today into tonight.
High pressure extending across the northern and eastern Great Lakes will sustain very dry air in the low levels across Se Mi. Surface warm front marked by dewpoints in the 60s creeps northward late this morning resulting in a weak instability gradient near the Michigan/Ohio border. Dynamically unremarkable upper level pattern suggests limited potential for deep-layer ascent locally as a closed low over the west-central Plains churns upstream of resilient ridging extending through the Great Lakes.
This ridge builds and will be centered over the area this weekend and will tend to favor subsidence.
1004 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure will result in dry weather for most of the region today, though shower and thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon across Ohio and West Virginia as low pressure approaches. The low will move through tonight into Saturday spreading showers across mainly southern parts of the region.
An anomalously strong ridge of high pressure will amplify over central Oregon and Washington Friday into Saturday.
625 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023 The low over the central Plains will continue to slowly progress northeast into Iowa by end of day Saturday, weakening as it goes. Some showers and thunderstorms have been developing again on the nose of the inverted trough extending from the low. Best shear and CAPE remains south of I-90 closer to the low.
706 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 (Today through Saturday) High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to support prevailing easterly flow over SFL today, while at the mid-levels ridging will largely prevail over the eastern US although various low-amplitude upper disturbances (likely influenced by convection) will be present over the GOM/western Atlantic. In general expect mostly dry conditions given the presence of the ridge, although isolated-scattered activity will be possible over the west coast near the pinned Gulf Breeze. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s over the east coast to the low 90s over the Interior.
743 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 Aviation -- Chance of Showers Mainly In Southern Michigan Today -- Increasing mid-level clouds associated with the trough/vorticity that originated over Texas a few days ago will result in a cloudier day, though still warm and fairly dry, more so in central Michigan and north of I-96. In the low probability case of robust convection, there has been the signal in various models of bullseyes of 1+ inch of rain. -- Mostly Dry Weekend Though Some Chance For Rain -- Though weak upper-level ridging and dry northeasterly low-level flow will be present on Saturday, remnant mid-level moisture may threaten to produce a few light rain showers on Saturday.