Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
136 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Broad upper ridging covers much of the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front is sliding through the northern plains, resulting in some breezy NW winds across the western SD plains. Temperatures Sunday will be tricky and will depend on how quickly the cool high pressure moves in behind today's cold front. Cooler temperatures will be more likely farther north. Besides lowering highs for Sunday, the incoming high pressure will also push near-surface smoke southward into the Black Hills region Sunday. Upper ridging will then dominate the weather pattern through midweek, with temperatures warming back into the 90s and 100s.
An upper level ridge currently centered across Oklahoma/Arkansas will shift slightly north on Sunday. This will result in temperatures a degree or two cooler than what we are expecting this afternoon.
(Tonight) Strong upper ridging over the eastern Great Plains at 500mb with 597 decameter heights over the OK-KS-MO-AR region, was helping continue dry conditions over and near the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, high pressure over Eastern Seaboard was providing a light southern flow.
The big upper high centered over the Ozarks is about to heat things up. The high is strengthening as we speak.
128 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Showery and cool conditions expected across the region today as a low pressure system gradually moves away from our area.
108 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Today through Sunday) Upper ridge currently centered near Oklahoma City, with an upper low off the southern California coast. At the surface, the old frontal boundary appears to now be to our north, with high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The upper high drifts a bit northeast over the next 36 hours, to be centered near the Missouri-Kansas border by Sunday evening.
Aloft, the ridge of high pressure responsible for our heat remains centered over Oklahoma/Arkansas, but will slowly drift northeastward over the next 24 hours, partially in response to Hurricane Hilary's trajectory northward over the western CONUS. This slight displacement of the ridge will yield a continuation of our subtle cooling trend (let's face it, it's still hot), with highs Sunday expected to be a degree or two cooler than today, but still in the middle 90s to lower 100s for most.
122 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure builds across the region today and pushes offshore tonight.
1113 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Key points: - Temperatures will moderate this weekend behind a cold front, while smoke/haze will return.
The sprawling upper level ridge of high pressure centered over OK/AR will continue to provide strong subsidence over the region, maintaining daytime and nighttime temperatures that are anywhere from 10-15 degrees above normal. Grass fires remain a concern, obviously, given the low afternoon relative humidities and bone dry fuels. A little bit of "good news" is that while temperatures will stay in the triple digits most of the week, they will be closer to the lower 100s.
The strong subtropical midlevel anticyclone, near 598 dm in strength, was centered along the Kansas/Oklahoma border at midday, with infrared satellite imagery showing only a rogue cloud or two, with intense subsidence and intense surface heating. Given 850 temperatures of 32-34C and pronounced SWly downslope throughout the lower troposphere, temperatures will soar to near record levels this afternoon. The ridge strengthens even more Sunday, with 500 mb heights reaching 600-602 dm across much of Kansas. As the ridge and associated subsidence intensifies, it will be difficult to find a cloud, and sky grids are at 0% through Sunday night.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track with only minor tweaks to hourly wind speeds around the passing cold front expected. Temperatures are in the high 60s to low 70s. An upper level ridge remains dominant through the period bringing in above average temperatures. A cold front will dip down into the region Sunday morning bringing winds back around to the north. This will draw some cooler air down into the region and give us a little relief from the heat. Highs on Sunday are expected to be in the low 70s to low 80s.
1215 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Today and tonight) The large upper high will continue to bring excessive heat over the southern plains Saturday. A weak lee trough will turn modest winds to southwest over western and central Oklahoma this afternoon.
Above normal temperatures are on tap for Sunday, as further drying occurs and high pressure strengthens over the region.
1123 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Higher heights continue to be centered over the Missouri River Basin with ridging extending aloft across Wyoming. This will block any impacts with the remnants of Hurricane Hilary to the west coast along with another upper level low nearing the Pacific northwest. An upper level low looks to push across north of the CWA flattening the pattern becoming more zonal. This in return will decrease the convergence aloft weakening the high to the southeast. The PFJ will be the biggest influencer on how far south the upper level low will dip and thus, what impacts to the CWA it will have.
Southerly lower-level flow into the Great Lakes is ushering in a much warmer airmass, with temperatures well into the 70s across most of the UP. Temperatures drop back into the lower to mid 60s. Key Messages: -Cooler and dry Sunday -Band of rain expected early in the week -Sporadic rain chances through midweek -Ridge eventually retreats south, NW flow pattern expected to follow With the aforementioned front having fully passed by Sunday, flow turns northwesterly and Sunday should be a cooler day than the previous day. Going into the week, the southern ridge continues to build northward, but we remain on the northern periphery.
Large dome of high pressure dominates much of the weather across the southern high plains and centered across Oklahoma. Shower activity across the lower elevations will be less than yesterday, with mainly isolated showers over the adjacent plains and a bit more numerous further north towards the Wyoming border.
307 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure shifts eastward through the weekend.
(Rest of Today) Strong upper ridging, with 500 mb heights around 597 decameters over the KS-MO-AR-OK region was amplifying and building more to the north and east. Given that temperatures yesterday were a bit warmer than forecast, will raise them a degree or two to around and above 90.
Winds will shift more out of the southeast and temperatures will increase today as upper ridge expands over the central plains. At upper levels, the ridge centered over the Central Plains is continuing to broaden and tilt towards the Ohio Valley. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low-mid 60s.
134 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure currently over the Ohio Valley will remain in control through the weekend while slowly shifting towards the Mid Atlantic coast.
1256 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 VFR conditions will prevail around periphery of expanding upper level ridge with just a period of increased mid/upper level clouds above 10-12kft later this evening. This will allow temperatures to peak in the upper-70s, challenging 80 degrees in many places, under mostly sunny skies (filtering through wildfire smoke aloft) with the upper-level ridging settling in.
Tonight, a weak cold front will move into eastern Iowa with a low pressure area in northern MO. Sunday, high pressure will build into the area from the NW as the weak low moves westward into the plains. This is where moisture will be pooling and dew points have been increased into the low to mid 70s, capping at 78. With the higher dew points, heat indices are now expected to be in the 105 to 110 range up to Highway 30.
The wind switch line or cold front appears to be somewhere along the Red River Valley. Wind speeds have been slow to increase this morning behind the cold front, so did lower speeds a bit for the rest of the morning. Otherwise prefrontal trough working it's way through the forecast area and should be through KGFK and KFAR within the next few hours, with the cold front still situated further back to the west. Much cooler conditions expected into Sunday with highs into the 70s.
136 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley today will move east tonight into Sunday.
HOT and DRY! A large strengthening 597dam high pressure centered over the Southern Plains has expanded across the ArkLaTex to the ArkLaMiss region. The high will continue to dominate our area and is expected to get even stronger (600dam) over the next day or so. High temperatures for Sunday will range from the upper 90s to the lower 100s. A strong high pressure system expanding across the Southern Plains, Mid-West, and Lower Mississippi Valley regions will dominate through the foreseeable future.
The 596dm upper-level ridge, currently centered over the region, will slowly move northeast and strengthen. 850mb temperatures are slightly cooler than yesterday but still around 30C-33C. NBM 90th percentile has been doing well with the highs over the past several days, so that wave will continue to be rode for at least today. 850mb temperatures will cool a degree or two again tomorrow, and with the ridge moving away, the "cooling" trend will continue. Have blended NBM 90th percentile with 75th percentile for the highs tomorrow, bringing them up to the upper-90s in the west and the 100s in the east.
JEH/88 (Now through Sunday) Just like that the ridge is back and temperatures are soaring once again. The upper level ridge has built back into the area. The forecast today will be fairly similar to yesterday and with the strength of the ridge rain chances are zero. It is not common for us to issue heat advisories for the high temperatures (usually we issue them for high heat indices) but here we are with a heat advisory for high temperatures up to 104 degrees across southeastern Mississippi. Sunday will be similar, but could be a few degrees cooler as stronger easterly winds begin to develop as an easterly wave enters the southern Gulf. This will result in a little less vertical mixing leading to temperatures to stay a few degrees cooler and dewpoints a few degrees warmer.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS 1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Rest of Today) Strong upper ridging, with 500 mb heights around 597 decameters over the KS-MO-AR-OK region was amplifying and building more to the north and east. Given that temperatures yesterday were a bit warmer than forecast, will raise them a degree or two to around and above 90.
Upper level flow at the ridge tops still remains out of the south, so the smoke has the potential to impact KMFR.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues this afternoon and tomorrow As the upper-level ridge slowly moves eastward tonight into tomorrow, subsidence will gradually decrease as the mid level winds become more easterly.
(This evening through Sunday) Upper level high pressure centered over Kansas and Oklahoma will shift a little farther to the north tonight and Sunday. Meanwhile, subsidence under the ridge combined with continued dry lower to mid levels support PoPs near zero.
300 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Upper level high pressure will build into the region through mid week, leading to mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. A broad, anomalously strong upper level high over the central US will build eastward through the day on Sunday with heights continuing to rise across our area. This will lead to dry conditions, along with a continued warming trend with highs on Sunday ranging from the upper 80s north to the lower 90s south. Dry conditions will continue Sunday night as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest late.
247 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure persists this weekend. Seasonally cooler today and tonight, then a warming trend starts Sunday. Blocking high pressure increases heat and humidity into the new week. A ridge over the region persists through Sunday afternoon keeping conditions dry. * High pressure remains in play with dry weather and a warming trend. Broad H600 MB center of high pressure remains parked over the Central Midwest/Great Plains, where oppressive heat will infiltrate this part of the CONUS.
This is in regards to a very narrow pocket of low to mid level moisture that is moving westward, or clockwise around the stacked area of high pressure to our north. Concerning overnight temperatures, continued the trend of staying a degree or two warmer each night given that is what we are seeing during the day so overnight lows will range from the middle 70s far north and east to the middle 80s far west. The center of the upper level ridge gets displaced slightly to the north of Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas by Sun Aftn thus, low level thickness values are just a pinch less than what they are today.
133 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 A sprawling mid/upper level ridge of high pressure will keep relentless heat across the Central Plains through much of the upcoming week. The pattern will look very similar as we move into the middle of the week with a sprawling mid/upper level ridge meandering over the central CONUS. This may help steer some cooler air into the region as we move into the weekend with highs on Sat possibly remaining closer to averages for late Aug. VFR conditions should otherwise prevail with high pressure and dry air over the area.
312 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure builds south of the area tonight, and over the Atlantic on Sunday.
High pressure over the central North Atlantic will build westward tonight and strengthen.
An anomalously strong upper ridge is still progged to gradually build north while strengthening through Sunday night. Combined with highs mostly in the lower 90s, heat indices will shoot into the 100-107F range Sunday afternoon. Speeds will probably be light, near or below 6 kts, for 1-3 hours following the shift to northeast and then increase to near 10 kt closer to the lake as a backdoor cold front pushes south.
230 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Key Messages -Decreasing winds this evening -Some smoke effects will continue -Cooler Sunday with minimal precipitation chances As of 2 pm winds were still pretty light across portions of our far southeast FA, with steady northwest winds elsewhere. This may only last for a few hours, while the high level smoke looks to linger into Sunday and Sunday night. Otherwise the FA will see noticeably cooler temperatures Sunday (around 20 degrees or so).
1238 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Today and tonight) The persistent dome of high pressure continues its dominance over our pattern.
The subtropical ridge is centered over the lower Missouri Valley, with our area sitting on the southwestern periphery. Some weak easterly flow can be found aloft at times, but not enough to either erode the ridge or promote southeasterly surface flow.
Readings will mainly top out in the lower to middle 80s, though it will be as warm as upper 80s Finger Lakes and as low as mid 70s for the high spots east of Lake Ontario.
A weak cold front will progress southward through the CWA during the day, with subsidence potentially bringing additional Canadian wildfire smoke to the surface Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.
648 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Upper level high pressure centered over Kansas and Oklahoma will shift a little farther to the north tonight and Sunday. Meanwhile, subsidence under the ridge combined with continued dry lower to mid levels support PoPs near zero.
538 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Tonight) Strong upper ridging over the eastern Great Plains at 500mb with 597 decameter heights over the OK-KS-MO-AR region, was helping continue dry conditions over and near the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, high pressure over Eastern Seaboard was providing a light southern flow.
Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues, with slightly cooler temperatures Sunday for portions of northeast Nebraska.
729 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 A warmer and sunnier day is expected for Sunday as upper level low pressure system finally moves away from our area.
Key Messages: * Continued hot tomorrow south of Highway 2, a bit cooler to the north. Afternoon satellite imagery shows clear skies across central and western Nebraska behind a weak frontal passage, allowing temperatures to push well into the 90s/low 100s as cooler air is lagging. Some convection is starting to fire along the front range to our west as short wave energy continues to rotate around the upper ridge and a lingering frontal boundary provides some mid level forcing. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s across the sandhills to the upper 60s further to the southeast. There may be an outside chance for an isolated thunderstorm as the old frontal boundary moves back through the region as a warm front tomorrow but signals are mixed so will maintain a dry forecast for now and await later guidance.
625 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues this afternoon and tomorrow As the upper-level ridge slowly moves eastward tonight into tomorrow, subsidence will gradually decrease as the mid level winds become more easterly.
(This afternoon through Sunday) Another dry forecast in store as a broad ridge of high pressure centered over the Southern Plains will continue to be the main player for our weather. Daytime highs on Sunday will range from mid/upr 80s in the higher elevations of north GA to the lwr/mid 90s across much of central GA. The humidity will also begin to increase a bit as the low lvl winds turn more southeast.
612 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Tonight) A dangerously hot and steamy day is well underway across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with temperatures running up to 11 degrees warmer than they were this time 24 hours ago. (Sunday through Saturday) Dangerous heat will continue to be the main story across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through the work week as an expansive upper level ridge wobbles over the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
Sunday will be a notably hotter and more humid day than Saturday, as sprawling high pressure over the heart of the country asserts itself and spreads rising heights (and temperatures) to our area. No significant weather in the short term and the only real forecast problem is whether to include POPs across the northern zones Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front settles south across Lower Michigan.
A tropical wave will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico south of our marine area with a large ridge over the central and eastern US steering it eastward. There will be a rather sharp gradient from southeast to northwest in rain chances though as the northwest half of the area will be under the influence of the large ridge.
720 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure shifts eastward through the weekend.
508 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 An upper level low will cross the region tonight, then exit across the Maritimes Sunday.
825 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Upper level high pressure will build into the region through mid week, leading to mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. A broad, anomalously strong upper level high over the central US will build eastward through the day on Sunday with heights continuing to rise across our area. This will lead to dry conditions, along with a continued warming trend with highs on Sunday ranging from the upper 80s north to the lower 90s south. Dry conditions will continue Sunday night as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest late.
624 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 A sprawling mid/upper level ridge of high pressure will keep relentless heat across the Central Plains through much of the upcoming week. The pattern will look very similar as we move into the middle of the week with a sprawling mid/upper level ridge meandering over the central CONUS. This may help steer some cooler air into the region as we move into the weekend with highs on Sat possibly remaining closer to averages for late Aug. The only issue will be the high heat that is expected during between 18Z to 00Z tomorrow.
821 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Aviation No significant weather in the short term and the only real forecast problem is whether to include POPs across the northern zones Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front settles south across Lower Michigan.
The low-level dry air layer noted in the morning Key West sounding was no longer evident this evening. We also see increasing ESE low-level flow in the wake of the wave axis, with C-MAN sites reporting sustained winds near 15 knots away from convective influences, and the sounding measuring winds of 14-16 knots in the lowest 3000 feet. From the synopsis, strengthening high pressure over the eastern United States and a tropical wave moving west through the Keys coastal waters will bring freshening easterly breezes and another round of unsettled weather overnight and Sunday.
(The rest of tonight) Dome of high pressure remained common across the Southern and Central Plains this evening. mostly clear to some passing high clouds underneath the strong ridge of high pressure are expected to continue across the CWA. (Sunday through Saturday) Dangerous heat will continue to be the main story across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through the work week as an expansive upper level ridge wobbles over the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
The cold front will not arrive until Sun evening when high pressure over the nrn Great Plains expands toward the Lake Superior region. A weak cold front will progress southward through the CWA during the day, with subsidence potentially bringing additional Canadian wildfire smoke to the surface Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.
731 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure builds south of the area tonight, and over the Atlantic on Sunday.
939 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure shifts eastward through the weekend.
As it continues northward, southeast winds will increase over northern Arizona as gradients tighten between Hilary and the strong ridge over the central US.
627 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Smoke continues to filter in from Canada this evening along and behind a cold front. Key Messages -Decreasing winds this evening -Some smoke effects will continue -Cooler Sunday with minimal precipitation chances As of 2 pm winds were still pretty light across portions of our far southeast FA, with steady northwest winds elsewhere. This may only last for a few hours, while the high level smoke looks to linger into Sunday and Sunday night. Otherwise the FA will see noticeably cooler temperatures Sunday (around 20 degrees or so).
(Rest of tonight) High pressure continues to keep dry conditions in place through the overnight hours, with mostly clear skies and light easterly winds expected.
Upper level ridge will continue to strengthen and push higher heights eastwards over us. As a result, weather will continue to be dry, with tomorrow a few degrees warmer than today was. Discussion: The large upper ridge over the central states will continue to build east over the region, keeping things dry for the short term period.
PoPs through daybreak around 40-60% south and east of a line from Okeechobee County to the Cape, with the highest PoPs along the Treasure Coast.
1011 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 A warmer and sunnier day is expected for Sunday as upper level low pressure system finally moves away from our area.
416 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Broad upper ridging covers much of the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front is sliding through the northern plains, resulting in some breezy NW winds across the western SD plains. Temperatures Sunday will be tricky and will depend on how quickly the cool high pressure moves in behind today's cold front. Cooler temperatures will be more likely farther north. Besides lowering highs for Sunday, the incoming high pressure will also push near-surface smoke southward into the Black Hills region Sunday. Upper ridging will then dominate the weather pattern through midweek, with temperatures warming back into the 90s and 100s.
The highest chance for an isolated strong thunderstorm will be over north central Florida, where the sea breeze boundaries interact.
654 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 A warmer and sunnier day is expected for Sunday as upper level low pressure system finally moves away from our area.