Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Early morning surface analysis still had a 1020mb ridge nosing across our CWA from the northeast that will shift south to the Gulf coast today. Global guidance continue to show a stout 598 dam 500mb high pressure system looming over the southwestern US.
1058 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 (This evening through Friday) The mid/upper-level ridge centered across New Mexico will continue to be the primary weather influence for the Southern Plains for Friday. The primary sensible weather impact from the mid-level ridge will continue to be hot temperatures around ~5 to 10 deg F above- average for late July. A Heat Advisory was issued for north central Oklahoma, where confidence on heat indices between 105 to 108 deg F are the highest. The secondary sensible weather impact is northerly flow on the eastern periphery of the ridge will continue to allow for remnant convection and cloud cover to potentially move into northwest/northern Oklahoma during the morning hours.
Saturday will be another hot day especially in our eastern and northeastern zones where the dew points will be the highest (mid 60s).
A few showers were apchg northern AR this mrng, assocd with a weak SW impulse working arnd the periphery of an upper ridge centered ovr the SWrn States. Typical summertime wx conditions are expected acrs the Mid-South the next few days as the aforementioned upper ridge axis persists over the region.
(Today and tonight) Subtropical ridging lingers across the southwestern U. Cirrus bands associated with now-dissipated convection in vicinity of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains continue to advect southward over the CWA along the eastern tranche of the ridge center.
North of the zonal flow aloft, an elongated, east-to-west oriented trof axis is evident via WV imagery over southern Canada, while to the south, broad anticyclonic flow persists from the Four Corners region eastward to the southern Plains. Latest surface analysis shows a backdoor cold front bisecting our area, though accompanying air mass change appears modest at the moment based on surface observations. Amplifying midlevel ridge to our west and increasing easterly/southeasterly return flow at low levels as high pressure nudges eastward will combine to produce a corridor of enhanced deep-layer shear over northeastern WY and western SD by the evening hours, which could support some longer-lived rotating updrafts. As ridging further amplifies Saturday, flow becomes increasingly northwesterly aloft.
The low-levels remain quite dry, with PWAT on the 12Z KLAS sounding dropping from 1. Going into the weekend, the monsoonal high pressure will start to meander westward.
106 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Hot, sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the South Atlantic states through Saturday.
Weak energy embedded in westerly flow aloft will translate through the upper ridge, spreading thunderstorms across the plains through this evening. Distribution of CAPE and a sub-cloud dry layer will favor gusty erratic winds up to 60 mph along with locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the stronger storms given the higher water content. Friday looks very similar to today, though flow aloft looks weaker as the upper high builds northward which decreases deep layer shears. Overall, it will remain hot with temperatures around 100 across the plains with 80s and lower 90s across the valleys and 60s and 70s across the higher terrain.
244 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: To the northeast a large area of relatively cool high pressure lies over the Hudson bay with a weak trough extending back west across the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces. To the south hot, high pressure lies anchored over the Desert Southwest with a ridge jutting north through the Intermountain West and getting flattened out around the Pacific Northwest. West of this a closed low has formed off the coast of the Pacific Northwest which is dragging pacific moisture up and through the near zonal flow along the International Boarder.
209 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge. Given that the Tri-State area will remain in a weak synoptic forcing regime, on the north and northeastern periphery of the ridge, at the far southern fringe of the westerlies.
--------------------------------------------------------------------- Hot and very humid conditions will continue today as the upper ridge axis is draped along Interstate 40. Models continue to struggle with over-mixing the boundary layer, so our forecast will stick to the lower end of max temp guidance and the higher end of dewpoints.
For the remainder of today, will carry a slight chance for some showers/thunderstorms over the far south/southeast portions of the area due to the placement of last night's cold front, but forecast soundings are coming in fairly dry in the low to mid-levels. Meanwhile, look for a much cooler day today as the pattern returns closer to normal. This will occur as the Desert Southwest heat dome expands northward and downstream troughing asserts itself over the Northeast.
A well defined center of low pressure is pushing onshore this morning on the GA/FL border. By the early afternoon, a cold front will begin to move into northern GA.
644 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 (Today through Saturday Night) An inverted upper level trough will move over the SW Gulf into Northern Mexico, and will nudge the ridge that dominated the synoptic pattern further west. This will allow 500mb heights to lower, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures.
From synopsis, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic will maintain gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeast breezes through Saturday.
The highest chance (20-30%) of these high end totals (and impacts) resides generally north of I-4.
The synoptic pattern hasn't changed much overall with a broad ridge of high pressure stretched across much of the desert southwest through the southern high plains. The center of the ridge over New Mexico is forecast to slowly inch northward near the Four corners region tonight. The thermal ridge also nudges into western/central Colorado with slight warming at 700mb.
Upper ridge in place will note some additional rising heights today, generally helping to support some suppression of shower and thunderstorm development. Given the building ridge overhead and likely limited thunderstorm coverage for most of the day, don't see any reason why temps well into the 90s to around 100 degrees won't be observed across the plains. The region will be dominated by an upper level high, with daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Slight shifts in the upper high positioning and embedded energy will determine how much thunderstorms and shower coverage will change from day to day.
323 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2023 A few waves passing to our north and the wobbling high pressure to our south will cause drier air to advect into the region today. Wetting rains will be confined to the higher elevations with little to no rain in the valleys. Tomorrow the high pressure will become centered just south of the Four Corners. Weak moisture occurs in this region due to drifting of the high. Terrain-driven convection is expected over the higher elevations and overall coverage will be similar to today. Saturday evening, the high pressure is centered on the Colorado-New Mexico border with ridging extending north along the Rocky Mountains, and the low off the Pacific Northwest is just starting to climb the ridge as it moves on shore.
Temperatures are currently trending a few degrees cooler than 24 hours ago for much of the region with the exception of the Delta where temperatures are trending a degree or two warmer, valid at 0130 PDT. The quiet weather pattern looks to continue through the rest of the short-term, with slight warming over the weekend as the upper level trough remains offshore of the Pacific Northwest, and the upper level ridge remains over the Four Corners region.
Hi-res guidance has storms beginning to develop along the higher terrain by noon, increasing in coverage thereafter. As we head into the weekend, the center of the high pressure system (currently over the AZ/NM border) begins to shift eastward, enhancing southerly flow into Arizona.
457 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2023 A few waves passing to our north and the wobbling high pressure to our south will cause drier air to advect into the region today. Wetting rains will be confined to the higher elevations with little to no rain in the valleys. Tomorrow the high pressure will become centered just south of the Four Corners. Weak moisture occurs in this region due to drifting of the high. Terrain-driven convection is expected over the higher elevations and overall coverage will be similar to today. Saturday evening, the high pressure is centered on the Colorado-New Mexico border with ridging extending north along the Rocky Mountains, and the low off the Pacific Northwest is just starting to climb the ridge as it moves on shore.
But for the most part the highs we are experiencing look to hang around for a bit.
337 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge. Given that the Tri-State area will remain in a weak synoptic forcing regime, on the north and northeastern periphery of the ridge, at the far southern fringe of the westerlies.
The higher temperatures will be along the Canadian River Valley and Palo Duro Canyon. By the evening, the low level jet returns so our southerly winds will remain breezy (10-15kts) overnight.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s. Values in the low to mid 70s. Saturday and Saturday night: Inverted trough moving into our area today will be over the forecast area on Saturday, breaking down the upper ridge a bit. The combination of abundant moisture and some weak vorticity should result in increased cloud cover and convective activity, which will also impact the temperatures and keep them a little cooler. Forecast soundings indicate a very moist profile with a deep warm layer and freezing level around 15kft, so while isolated severe convection cannot be ruled out, think heavy rain threat and localized flooding may be the main threat. Highs on Saturday should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows Saturday night in the lower to mid 70s.
604 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 An upper level ridge continues to dominate the hot and humid conditions across the Mid-South.
616 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 (Today and tonight) Subtropical ridging lingers across the southwestern U. Cirrus bands associated with now-dissipated convection in vicinity of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains continue to advect southward over the CWA along the eastern tranche of the ridge center.
Expect temperatures, dewpoints and heat index values to be very near those seen yesterday - except for perhaps areas northwest of Tulsa, with northeast Oklahoma seeing the highest temperatures and heat indices locally.
* However, there is change in the air for most areas this weekend with cooler temperatures and some rain/storm chances. Cumulus field has struggled to grow as it moves into south central Nebraska with the weak lift due to warm air aloft and weak surface convergence, even with the low nearby. Sometimes it just takes a bit of mid-evening cooler to allow a storm to develop in these environments. That could totally hit if less storms develop overnight and winds/cooler air don't push as far south. The big news is though most of the rest of the forecast area will be significantly cooler tomorrow (80s to 90ish) and there may be some rain/clouds lingering which could drop temperatures more.
Hot and muggy day with temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat index values should approach 100F so the excessive heat advisory Hi- res models have been struggling with an upstream MCS now pushing across central Ohio.
1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 The upper level ridge continues to impact the Mid-South.
254 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 High pressure offshore will lead to continued hot and humid conditions across the region. A cold front will push through Saturday with high pressure building in its wake through the middle of the week. As for the heat, current trends suggest heat indices will fall short of the heat warning criteria and peak around 105 east of the Blue Ridge and 100 west of there. As opposed to today, there will be stronger sfc flow and significant height falls spreading the area ahead of a cold front. The cold front will clear the fcst area by 12Z Sun, however, falling height falls and remaining moisture will likely keep the risk of showers going through the day especially in southern areas.
A low pressure lingering off of the coast of the eastern FL Panhandle/GA coastline will continue to funnel moisture into the S/SE portions of Mississippi this afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for areas along and north of the Highway 82 corridor until 8pm this evening. Cloud cover is expected to remain minimal in the late morning into the afternoon hours areawide due to a strong upper ridge bearing down over the Lower Mississippi Valley region.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over western New Mexico this afternoon, resulting in continued warm conditions over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. To the southeast, an inverted trough has made landfall in extreme south Texas/northern Mexico. Saturday, as the inverted trough grinds up the Rio Grande Valley, the ridge is forecast to shift into northwest New Mexico, decreasing thicknesses just a skosh and shaving maybe a degree off today's highs, keeping heat advisories at bay. Lows tonight/Saturday night will similarly be cooler than the past few weeks, mainly due to a nocturnal LLJ of under 30kts, which will allow for a little less mixing and a little more radiational cooling. Unfortunately, grids will stay dry through Saturday night, and at least until the inverted trough pushes a little farther up the Rio Grande Valley.
(Tonight through Saturday night) The mid-level high pressure remains centered over New Mexico. With the high shifted to the west a bit and increasing deep moisture, we can expect to see partly cloudy skies over portions of South Texas Saturday.
That being said, satellite and radar imagery does show some showers and thunderstorms developing over NE WI; some of these storms may move over the southern half Menominee County the rest of today into early this evening as the cold front slowly drops further south through tonight. Expect the drier conditions behind the cold front to keep the sunnier skies over us until the evening hours, when a disturbance currently over western MN dies out and brings mid-level clouds across our CWA. These mid- level clouds will likely keep temps slightly warmer overnight than if they weren't there. This will occur as the Desert Southwest heat dome expands northward and downstream troughing asserts itself over the Northeast.
Areas south and east will see more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as it is closer to the center of low pressure. A similar forecast is on tap tomorrow as the low pressure tracks north and a mid-level trough develops east of the forecast area.
155 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 High pressure will dominate the weather over the Southeast through Saturday, with increasing daily temperatures, humidity, and thunderstorm chances.
PoPs will essentially follow this gradient, with the highest PoPs during the day across SW FL and tapering off to chance PoPs along the SE FL coast. High temps will be in the low to mid 90s. Max heat indices will range from 105-110 but with the high chances of rain expected, the max heat indices aren't expected to last long enough to warrant any heat headlines.
154 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 One or more rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible through Saturday morning before cooler and less humid air arrives.
Some upper level troughing remains across the forecast area. Highs will once again be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the lower 100s.
240 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 (Issued 239 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023) Tonight through Saturday night: Dew point temperatures in the lower 70s and upper 60s are reported across the area. Dry and sunny conditions are expected on Saturday, with highs in the lower 80s away from the lakeshore.
This will allow a brief window of opportunity for more robust convection to develop along or near the cold front within the far southern Valley into west- central Minnesota early this afternoon tapping into the unstable air mass. Tracking the momentum of the cold front, most likely scenario is for the front to move through the area before this occurs, minimizing the chance for surface based parcels to feed potentially robust thunderstorms. Much cooler today with lower relative humidity. H5 ridging begins to build to the west of the CWA later Saturday, then shifts eastward thereafter.
Intense upper ridging continues this late morning into the afternoon, aiding in increased temperatures across the Lower Mississippi Valley. In the southeast, cloud cover is expected to move into the southeast as a low pressure off of the eastern Florida coast increases moisture. Early morning surface analysis still had a 1020mb ridge nosing across our CWA from the northeast that will shift south to the Gulf coast today. Global guidance continue to show a stout 598 dam 500mb high pressure system looming over the southwestern US.
A cold front will bring a bit of relief from the heat this weekend. Typical summer upper level ridge of high pressure is centered across New Mexico. As this occurs a cold front will surge southward through the area Saturday morning.
Otherwise, current temps climbing into the lower/mid 90s coupled with dew pts mainly in the lower/mid 70s have translated into max heat indices around 100-107F for areas along/west of I-65. Overnight temps also look to fall into the lower/mid 70s, which is near/slightly above normal for this time of the yr.
Drier and cooler weather will overspread the area this weekend. 17Z sfc analysis shows well demarcated outflow boundary extending from cntrl IL into srn IN before bucking back north as a warm front through IA. Nevertheless northeast IA through nrn IL vcnty appears most susceptible for vigorous storm development by evening with rapid upscale growth/organization ese along sharp low level theta-e ridge tonight. A few showers possible within swd progressing cold front Sat morning into early aftn southeast otherwise notable drying and cooler temps follow through mid week as high pressure builds in across the Great Lakes. Towards the end of the period all convection should be SE of the area with drier, cooler and much more peaceful conditions.
1228 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 The upper level ridge continues to impact the Mid-South.
On Saturday, the large-scale ridging will strengthen over our area leading to somewhat warmer temperatures than today. This amplification will push the daily storm activity rounding the upper ridge to the north. Some stronger storms could also round the ridge late in the evening along the MT/Dakota border, however the ridge will limit storm coverage.
An upper level high, centered over northern New Mexico today, will shift a bit north and will be centered over the Colorado/New Mexico border on Saturday. An inverted trough over eastern Mexico will move west and will be just south of the Big Bend region by late Saturday afternoon. Based on the 850mb thermal ridging pattern, highs on Saturday look to be a degree or two hotter than today.
212 PM MDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge. Given that the Tri-State area will remain in a weak synoptic forcing regime, on the north and northeastern periphery of the ridge, at the far southern fringe of the westerlies.
(Through Saturday) Area of low pressure spinning north up the southeast GA coast will track north of the area Tonight. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to wrap around this low. Sea breeze convergence and energy from leftover low, in addition to instability from diurnal heating and upper troughing will lead to scattered to numerous convection. Lows Tonight in the mid 70s are expected, with highs Saturday in the lower 90s.
(This evening through Saturday Night) The aforementioned upper level ridge, centered just east of the Four Corners Region, will continue to influence our weather. The subsidence associated with this ridge will generally keep rain out the forecast, along with partly cloudy skies, and hot & humid conditions.
However, if the front/outflow gets further south than expected (as the NAM suggests), portions of central and east-central KS would see somewhat cooler than expected temperatures.
1207 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 (Today through Saturday Night) An inverted upper level trough will move over the SW Gulf into Northern Mexico, and will nudge the ridge that dominated the synoptic pattern further west. This will allow 500mb heights to lower, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures.
Then, afternoon showers initiate over the higher terrain in TFX's CWA and similar to yesterday, skirts our southern zones, with the main threat being gusty winds. -Enriquez PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: To the northeast a large area of relatively cool high pressure lies over the Hudson bay with a weak trough extending back west across the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces. To the south hot, high pressure lies anchored over the Desert Southwest with a ridge jutting north through the Intermountain West and getting flattened out around the Pacific Northwest. West of this a closed low has formed off the coast of the Pacific Northwest which is dragging pacific moisture up and through the near zonal flow along the International Boarder.
253 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 High pressure remains over the area Saturday with hot and humid conditions.
322 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 A cold front will be crossing the Upper Ohio Valley area on Saturday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Hot and muggy day with temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat index values should approach 100F so the excessive heat advisory Hi- res models have been struggling with an upstream MCS now pushing across central Ohio.
Temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon as the ridge continues to dominate weather patterns.
Temperatures are expected to be much more seasonal behind the cold front with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
(This evening through Saturday) Current satellite and RAP analysis has the upper high spinning over western New Mexico with temperatures warming across the area today into the upper 90s to triple digits. Tomorrow, the high will begin to meander northward towards the Colorado border. This shift in the high will result in little change to the high temperatures with once again upper 90s along the Caprock and lower triple digits (100-105 degrees) off the Caprock.
in the lower level temperature inversion) overnight and Saturday morning.
Thankfully, today and tomorrow will remain slightly cooler than what we've experienced for much of July. But warmer temperatures are coming as an inverted trough axis to our south/southeast weakens and the upper ridge strengthens through the weekend. SSF, ATT, and the Balcones USCRN site), we're now at about 7 straight weeks since the last time we had a cooler than normal average daily temperature.
A few isolated showers and storms may be ongoing this evening, mainly along the high terrain of the Appalachians, but should dissipate with loss of day time heating. The ridge begins to flatten tomorrow in response to an upper level trough to our north. Some weak 500mb vorticity within the trough base may help to set off showers and storms tomorrow afternoon to our north. Otherwise, slight chance of isolated afternoon showers and storms elsewhere due to the lowered heights.
1237 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 (Today and tonight) Subtropical ridging lingers across the southwestern U. Cirrus bands associated with now-dissipated convection in vicinity of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains continue to advect southward over the CWA along the eastern tranche of the ridge center.
1036 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 The upper level ridge continues to impact the Mid-South.