Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This low center is expected to remain nearly stationary throughout the day, before pushing eastward on Wednesday. This puts southern Yavapai and northern Gila County, and to a lesser extent the eastern Mogollon Rim, on the northern periphery of the precipitation associated with the low. As of 3 AM - the main center of low pressure has moved southward to southern Baja California and the secondary low is shearing out over northwest Arizona. Southern Yavapai, northern Gila, and possibly the eastern Mogollon Rim will be on the far northern fringe of the precipitation with the low. Tonight through Wednesday, the low shifts eastward through northern Sonora, and should be too far south for any additional precipitation in our forecast area.
Afternoon radar mosaic shows bands of freezing rain and sleet extending from the northern Edwards Plateau northeastward across the eastern Concho Valley into the Heartland. Elsewhere across the area, patchy light freezing drizzle and mist continue. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 20s area wide. Freezing rain and sleet look to be the predominant precipitation types depending on the depth of cold air at the surface. With temperatures in the lower to mid 20s through the morning hours significant icing is likely across our area, with amounts of. In addition, convective allowing models are showing a heavier band of freezing rain and sleet setting up somewhere over the eastern Permian Basin and western Concho Valley near San Angelo. With ice/sleet on the ground temperatures will remain below freezing, with highs struggling to get out of the 20s.
18z surface analysis showed a broad area of high pressure stretching from northern Illinois southwest into central Kansas. [Key Messages] 1) Quiet weather is expected over the next 24 hours with below normal temperatures [Discussion] A tranquil short term is expected across the area as the high slowly drifts into the Ohio River Valley through Wednesday. The primary concern is temperatures tonight as the cold air mass will be slow to exit the area with the high. As the high moves to our east, a tightening pressure gradient and zonal flow aloft will help strengthen southerly flow and WAA across the Midwest.
It will stil be chilly today, however, with highs in the low teens and chills topping out in the negative single digits.
Temperatures will bottom out into the low to mid teens tonight.
High pressure will then build in and persist through the rest of the week offering dry weather. Highs will range from the lower 20s in the northwest to the lower 30s southeast. Large area of high pressure to build in from the west becoming centered over the area early Wednesday.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) A benign pattern persists through mid-week as surface Atlantic high pressure and a mid-level high centered just south of the area combine to provide excellent convective inhibition.
Positively tilted upper trough over the Dakotas this afternoon will continue moving east allowing NW flow to be the main player for our area.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Key Messages: -Warmer into Wednesday with quiet weather.
1035 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 Northwest flow aloft will be building into the region today as the broad H5 ridge slowly moves inland along the Pacific Coast. Westerly flow along the lee of mountain ranges will bring some of this warmer air down into the western portions of basins, slowly starting to mix the edges of these cold pools, with moderation continuing through the remainder of the week. The overall moderating ridge will gradually shift east across the Intermountain West through the rest of the week, with a continuation of the moderation of temperatures closer to normal.
1011 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 Current surface analysis shows high pressure southeast of the region, with low pressure over southwest Canada. A developing warm front extends southeast from the low into eastern MT. Upper level analysis shows positively tilted trough over the northern Plains, extending southwest to a cutoff low across southern CA/western AZ. Ridging is still located just off the west coast. Warm air advection continues today as developing warm front moves further east across the northern Plains and west to southwest winds increase.
A cold low pressure system will push southeast across southern Arizona today bringing drier conditions along with gusty north winds. especially along the lower Colorado River Valley. A ridge of high pressure will develop Wednesday through the weekend keeping dry conditions in place along with temperatures climbing to near normal.
136 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 Current surface map places weak trof/warm front across western South Dakota.
224 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 Currently, the Mid-Mississippi Valley is placed between upper level high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and an elongated upper trough extending from eastern Canada southwest through southern California.
Light returns are showing up on radar this morning across northern Malheur County and the Lower Treasure Valley, moving southeast toward the Upper Treasure Valley.
To the north of the low center, some light showers can be seen across portions of Maricopa and southern Yavapai Counties. The low is forecast to inch southward during the afternoon and overnight hours bringing a return of dry conditions area-wide by late this evening. On Wednesday, the low pushes eastward before exiting the area during the evening hours.
154 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 Today is a "Feels Warmer" day as temperatures have risen into the mid teens to low 20s across the area, but hey we will take it over the past few days where temperatures remained fairly stagnate around zero. Tonight, another night of fairly strong radiational cooling will be present with overnight lows falling into the low single digits.
108 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 Intermittent snow across northern West Virginia will come to an end Wednesday, as high pressure brings about dry weather and rising temperature.
After a frosty start to the day, light southerly winds and ample sunshine will boost Wednesday afternoon highs into the lower 30s. A ridge of high pressure currently extending from the lower Great Lakes to the Central Plains will settle southward into central Illinois tonight. Given mostly clear skies and nearly calm winds beneath the ridge, think excellent radiational cooling will result in overnight lows several degrees colder than previously forecast. As the ridge drops further southward toward the Ohio River, light S/SW winds will bring moderating temperatures across the board on Wednesday. with afternoon highs reaching the lower 30s.
1115 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 (Today through Wednesday) The most recent surface analysis indicated that the recently- much-discussed cold front has now cleared nearly the entire BRO CWFA, with only the southeast corner of the Gulf of Mexico marine zone still pre-frontal. NAM guidance was once again heavily favored, and forecast reasoning remains the same: well below normal daytime highs and overnight lows will prevail as cold air continues to pour into the region in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. Luckily, the combination of rain and temperatures will not support the chance of frozen precipitation, or even freezing temperatures tonight.
1001 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 Snow will taper off this morning as a cold front exits the region.
on the eastern periphery of an amplifying ridge over the Intermountain West and PAC NW. Feature of Interest: An upper level low. Today-Tonight: Relatively warmer temperatures expected. Given that a Wind Chill Advisory has been in place for the entire Tri-State area the past 3 days -- and that expected wind chill readings, while cold, will be [1] warmer than prior nights and [2] marginal from a criteria stand-point -- further continuation of a Wind Chill Advisory (beyond this morning) appears unnecessary. albeit relatively warmer via gradual airmass modification.
Mean-layer ridging centered over the Western Caribbean supports the low-level ridge just to the east of Florida. The forecast calls for highs in the lower 80s with near nil rain chances. A few sprinkles will spread to the northwest across the Straits to the southwest of the Lower Keys, with the island chain remaining dry.
A cold front will slowly shift south into the region Wednesday, providing slightly cooler temps behind it, and a chance of light rain, mainly northern areas in the morning.
These cool temperatures will stick around through the forecast period as a cold air continues to filter in and settle across Deep South Texas behind yesterdays cold front. On the plus side, we are not expecting any freezing temperatures or frozen precipitation.
144 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 A dry and subsident northwesterly flow aloft will be over CO ahead of a ridge of high pressure that will have it axis over NV/ID by 00z Wednesday. Warmest readings overnight will be in parts of the foothills where breezy downslope winds will keep the lows in the teens. In the latter half of the week, it should be mostly clear and dry beneath ridging aloft.
Generally full sun should support highs in the upper 20s-low 30s over areas with little or no snow cover and in the city, while the deeper snow cover should limit those spots to the low-mid 20s.
257 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 Discussion/Marine -- No big storms, but some snow showers/squalls -- Lake effect snow showers will be moving inland and diminishing this evening as flow goes west and sfc ridging further lowering inversion heights.
301 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 We're at the periphery of upper level ridging with strong/anomalous westerlies overhead. As ridging passes east tomorrow, slight strengthening of low-level flow will advect warmer temperatures in, albeit still 5-10 degrees below early February climo. while modest surface ridging aligns along the Ohio Valley.
The remainder of the night will feature high pressure settling down into the region, leading to calm winds and very dry and cold conditions. Kimble Currently, the Mid-Mississippi Valley is placed between upper level high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and an elongated upper trough extending from eastern Canada southwest through southern California.
935 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 A ridge of high pressure will keep any active weather over the next few days to the south and deeper into Kentucky.
Drier low level air continues to advect southeast behind the wave, however some p[patchy freezing drizzle is lingering across southeast OK into parts of northwest AR.
Cooler temperatures will also spread over the area through Wednesday.
Expect morning lows to reside in the single digits on either side of the zero marker with fairly light southwest winds, aside from slightly warmer and breezier conditions on and downwind of the MN Buffalo Ridge.
Select deterministic NAM/RAP soundings suggest primarily cold rain, with freezing rain possible only over the northern sections of the counties currently in the WWA (Live Oak, Bee and Goliad). The HREF ensemble mean depicts barely freezing temperatures restricted to the current WWA region. Based in part on the HREF ensemble mean, do not expect freezing temperatures Wednesday night.
515 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 Wintry precipitation in the form of sleet, freezing rain, and snow looks likely to fall in Reynolds, Iron, and Madison counties in Missouri. Jaja Currently, the Mid-Mississippi Valley is placed between upper level high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and an elongated upper trough extending from eastern Canada southwest through southern California.
646 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 Updated short term temperatures and weather based on the thinking that much of the midsouth will remain at or below freezing again tomorrow. Ice and sleet on the ground, cloudy skies and persistent CAA all point to another sub-freezing day across much of the area. Latest short term high-res guidance is also pointing toward cooler temperatures. Expect a lull in measurable precipitation late tonight and much of tomorrow, but another round of freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet remains on tap for tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. Between the rounds of freezing rain, light freezing drizzle or fog is expected through the day tomorrow.
651 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 Intermittent snow across northern West Virginia will come to an end Wednesday, as high pressure brings about dry weather and rising temperature.
/ISSUED 259 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2023/ A ridge axis is located just upstream. Our region, which includes, North central, central and southwest Montana, is located in the northwesterly flow on the leading edge of said ridge.
310 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 Wintry precipitation in the form of sleet, freezing rain, and snow looks likely to fall in Reynolds, Iron, and Madison counties in Missouri. Jaja Currently, the Mid-Mississippi Valley is placed between upper level high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and an elongated upper trough extending from eastern Canada southwest through southern California.
We're at the periphery of upper level ridging with strong/anomalous westerlies overhead. As ridging passes east tomorrow, slight strengthening of low-level flow will advect warmer temperatures in, albeit still 5-10 degrees below early February climo. while modest surface ridging aligns along the Ohio Valley.
Dry and cold conditions look to hold today as model agreement continues to see the building ridge force good northerly flow over the Silver State. Over the course of today and Wednesday, models expect this flow to lessen with the ridge now fully built over the Great Basin area. For afternoon high temperature, tomorrow will look to finally get above freezing with locations returning to the mid to low 30s for the day.
441 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 A dry and subsident northwesterly flow aloft will be over CO ahead of a ridge of high pressure that will have it axis over NV/ID by 00z Wednesday. Warmest readings overnight will be in parts of the foothills where breezy downslope winds will keep the lows in the teens. In the latter half of the week, it should be mostly clear and dry beneath ridging aloft.
Morning low temperatures are expected to get below freezing and could bring freezing impacts to the area.
539 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 A large area of high pressure is keeping the weather nice and quiet today aside from some cold. Temperatures across the area early this afternoon vary from the lower single digits to mid teens. As the high, currently centered over the IL/IA/MO tripoint, progresses eastward through the rest of today and tonight, modest warm advection will take place in the mild return flow. Light winds will pull wind chills down to 15 to 20 degrees below zero across the aforementioned cooler areas. Continued warm advection through the low levels will cause temperatures to steadily rise through the day tomorrow. Doom An arctic cold front is expected to be moving southward across the upper Midwest at the start of the period as a strong upper low moves across the Hudson Bay.
Despite westerly flow aloft, temperatures are still in the low 20s for most of our plains as of 2pm this afternoon, thanks mostly to lingering snow cover and the slow mixing out of our dense arctic airmass. Mostly clear sky conditions along with what's left of our snow cover will allow us to cool efficiently again tonight, with many locations on our plains getting down to near zero once again, especially in the lower Arkansas River Valley. As the low to our west dives further south, our northwesterly flow aloft increases for tomorrow, allowing temperatures to rebound to near normal under mostly sunny sky conditions. Key Messages: 1) Overall warmer and drier trend expected for southern Colorado the next several days.
No changes to the previous forecast (Rest of today through Wednesday) A benign pattern persists through mid-week as surface Atlantic high pressure and a mid-level high centered just south of the area combine to provide excellent convective inhibition.
Since winds came close to criteria last night over the I-80 Summit between Cheyenne and Laramie, and gradients will be stronger tonight, we have opted to add the Southern Laramie Range to the High Wind Warning. As 850/700 mb height gradients relax in the afternoon, we expect winds to decrease enough to allow the High Wind Warning to expire around 2 PM.
A wintry mix with freezing rain as dominant after sunrise through the reminder of the morning across northern Texas into all of southern Oklahoma. Vertical ascent will be strongest across northern Texas through southcentral into southeast Oklahoma where the highest probabilities will be in place and will likely see the highest impact of ice. As a result, a Winter Storm Warning for sleet and freezing rain will remain in effect there as well. Could see ice glazing from freezing rain over 1/4 inch thick with an additional 1/2 inch of sleet in the warning area. A Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect over the lower probability areas, generally southwest, western and central Oklahoma where the impact should be lower.
706 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 Aviation -- No big storms, but some snow showers/squalls -- Lake effect snow showers will be moving inland and diminishing this evening as flow goes west and sfc ridging further lowering inversion heights.
350 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 Current surface map places weak trof/warm front across western South Dakota.
256 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 Today is a "Feels Warmer" day as temperatures have risen into the mid teens to low 20s across the area, but hey we will take it over the past few days where temperatures remained fairly stagnate around zero. Tonight, another night of fairly strong radiational cooling will be present with overnight lows falling into the low single digits.
However, there is a low probability that accumulating snow will reach as far west as the Highway 95 corridor, including Grangeville.
A ridge axis is located just upstream. Our region, which includes, North central, central and southwest Montana, is located in the northwesterly flow on the leading edge of said ridge.
A cold front will slowly shift south into the region Wednesday, providing a chance of light rain, mainly across northern areas in the morning, and slightly cooler temperatures behind it.
Upper level ridge is building into NorCal today. The APEX of the ridge will be over NorCal tomorrow and that will bring slightly warmer daytime highs compared today.
646 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 (Rest of today through Wednesday) A benign pattern persists through mid-week as surface Atlantic high pressure and a mid-level high centered just south of the area combine to provide excellent convective inhibition.
328 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 (Issued 245 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023) Tonight through Wednesday night: Our cold air mass will persist overnight as high pressure very slowly slides south and east into the Ohio River Valley. Lows should be in the low single digits, to a few degrees below zero in low- lying inland spots. Wednesday, we'll see temperatures rebound to highs in the low 20s as a lobe of warmer 925mb air around -7C builds in aloft on the eastern periphery of downslope driven warming over the Central Plains.
The departing colder air will allow warmer air from the SW to move over our region through tomorrow. Wednesday, near normal temperatures in the north and above normal temperatures in the south can be expected under a building ridge of high pressure.
Mean layer ridging remains sprawled across the entirety of the Gulf of Mexico, across the Sunshine State, and into the southwestern North Atlantic. Meanwhile, lower level ridge is centered just east of the Northwest Bahamas with the axis just to our north and stretching back west across the entire Gulf as well.
931 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 Current surface map places weak trof/warm front across western South Dakota.
At the surface a 1030 mb high extends from eastern Oklahoma through Missouri with a developing lee side trough in the front range of the Rockies. Tonight shouldn't be as cold compared to the last few nights as the lower level airmass continues to slowly warm. With an upper level trough approaching and a closed low moves into west Texas the upper level winds should start to switch more northwesterly and usher out the clouds during the night.
as an upper level ridge amplifies over the Intermountain West/Rockies. albeit relatively warmer via modest airmass modification.
1051 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 A large area of high pressure is keeping the weather nice and quiet today aside from some cold. Temperatures across the area early this afternoon vary from the lower single digits to mid teens. As the high, currently centered over the IL/IA/MO tripoint, progresses eastward through the rest of today and tonight, modest warm advection will take place in the mild return flow. Light winds will pull wind chills down to 15 to 20 degrees below zero across the aforementioned cooler areas. Continued warm advection through the low levels will cause temperatures to steadily rise through the day tomorrow. Doom An arctic cold front is expected to be moving southward across the upper Midwest at the start of the period as a strong upper low moves across the Hudson Bay.
On the edge of that, some light breezes will keep readings a little warmer near the Wyoming border and across the foothills. In fact, a few spots in the foothills were still in the lower 20s. Some of that "mild" downslope air will keep the western suburbs a few degrees warmer overnight as well, but main warmup should begin tomorrow. A dry and subsident northwesterly flow aloft will be over CO ahead of a ridge of high pressure that will have it axis over NV/ID by 00z Wednesday. Warmest readings overnight will be in parts of the foothills where breezy downslope winds will keep the lows in the teens. In the latter half of the week, it should be mostly clear and dry beneath ridging aloft.
High pressure overhead has allowed for this peaceful night, but don't let it deceive you. A quiet and calm forecast is ahead of us today and tonight, as high pressure slowly slides east.
1229 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 Intermittent snow across northern West Virginia will come to an end Wednesday, as high pressure brings about dry weather and rising temperature.
then warmer weekend - Dry through the week? Overall, looking at a lot more movement in the upper levels, with the GFS/EC moving toward a more progressive pattern. So a day or two under the influence of a ridge, day or two with troughing. Colder air looks to start spilling back in during the afternoon, settles in for the night, but doesn't stick around long as the responsible trough quickly exits east Fri night. With high pressure meandering overhead Thu night, mostly clear skies and snow cover will help drop temps.
955 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 Today is a "Feels Warmer" day as temperatures have risen into the mid teens to low 20s across the area, but hey we will take it over the past few days where temperatures remained fairly stagnate around zero. Tonight, another night of fairly strong radiational cooling will be present with overnight lows falling into the low single digits.
-- No big storms, but some snow showers/squalls -- Lake effect snow showers will be moving inland and diminishing this evening as flow goes west and sfc ridging further lowering inversion heights.
1148 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 Updated short term temperatures and weather based on the thinking that much of the midsouth will remain at or below freezing again tomorrow. Ice and sleet on the ground, cloudy skies and persistent CAA all point to another sub-freezing day across much of the area. Latest short term high-res guidance is also pointing toward cooler temperatures. Expect a lull in measurable precipitation late tonight and much of tomorrow, but another round of freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet remains on tap for tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. Between the rounds of freezing rain, light freezing drizzle or fog is expected through the day tomorrow.
Temps continue to run a good 5-10 degrees above normal, with another mild night expected with lows mostly in the low/mid 60s and afternoon highs in the low/mid 80s. High pressure will be ridging across the local waters through the week keeping warm, rain-free, and fairly pleasant boating conditions with seas mainly 1 foot or less.