Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler, more seasonable temperatures will return for the second half of the weekend and for the start of the new year along with mainly fair weather. Rainfall rates have been as high as third to about a half of an inch at times with rainfall totals over the past 12 hours from a half to 1 1/4 inches across those counties with the highest totals across the southern most portions with the highest total at Beacon with 1 3/4 inches.
Upper low is now located over STL this morning with another mid level trough axis extending toward northeast Kansas. Modest lift associated with this trough axis is enough to generate an area of very light snow and drizzle which will pivot southwest across the eastern portions of the CWA (mainly southeast of the turnpike) early this morning. Kansas mesonet stations show air temps around 32 degrees where the precip may occur so there could be a brief window of freezing drizzle/drizzle however do not expect impacts given marginal temps and very light nature of the precip.
639 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 (Today through Friday) This AM, satellite is indicating a quick drop off in cloud cover behind a cold front that is moving SEWD across C AL at this time. Behind it temps and dew points are dropping with cooler readings for today. With WNW winds ~ 5-10 MPH this afternoon along with highs some 4-10 degrees lower, it will feel much cooler today than yesterday. A large upper low is currently over MO/IL this morning and will slowly nudge/swing its way toward OH/WV through the short term.
Benign weather is expected through the short- term with dry conditions and cooler than normal temperatures. Another chilly night is expected tonight with lows ranging from the lower 40s across the northern ranchlands to the mid to upper 40s across the Rio Grande Valley. Have leaned towards the cooler MET/MAV for the lows tonight, especially across the Lower Valley, as the NBM seems a little too warm. Another cooler than normal day is expected on Friday with high temps in the 60s.
(Today through Friday Night) Below normal temperatures, cloudy and breezy conditions are expected to persist across much of the state through the period as a persistent H500 cyclone slowly progresses away from the region.
The low pressure that has plagued the region with chilly conditions, mostly cloudy skies, and periods of light snow has slowly progressed eastward over the past 24 hours is centered over the mid-Mississippi River Valley.
439 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 High pressure will dominate through this weekend with dry conditions.
512 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Cloudy and chilly conditions will persist across the region through Friday as an upper level low pressure system remains overhead.
416 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Light freezing drizzle mixed with snow is likely early this morning west of a Florence to Antigo to Wisconsin Rapids line.
Temperatures will cool slightly into the weekend, although still remaining well above normal, as the ridge rebounds to the west. VFR conditions as a strong ridge of high pressure continues to lead to beautiful flying weather for the next several days.
A large upper level low continues to rotate through the midwest bringing easterly flow across the region along with bands of moisture that will bring periods of light rain/drizzle through southern Michigan.
Temps tnt should remain above freezing for se WI but fall below freezing just north and west of Madison.
A cold front will move across the forecast area Tonight, shifting winds from SW to W or W-NW. Low temperatures will drop to the upper 30s to lower 40s across SE GA due to earlier cold front passage, 40-45 range along I-10 corridor, mid-upper 40s further south.
An upper level low remains positioned to our northeast with deep northwesterly flow in place behind the system over our region.
(Tonight thru Friday morning) An east-west elongated wave/cold core aloft wrapping around the broad upper cyclone over the central part of the country is bringing scattered sprinkles and flurries to portions of the area this afternoon.
1035 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 - High pressure dominates the weather the next several days, with a warming trend kicking in tomorrow. Clear skies have dominated across much of eastern Utah and wester Colorado so far tonight as high pressure and cold, dry northwest flow remain in place. The northern valleys are currently forecast to see lows run a good 10 degrees warmer compared to previous days. All this does depend on the high clouds sticking around into the overnight hours tonight, and not dissipating quickly around sunset.
The freezing line still looks to be setting up near/around the I-10 corridor (minus the Houston Metro area) with readings from the upper 20s mainly in/around the Madisonville to Crockett areas to the lower 30s elsewhere. It would not be a bad idea to protect any cold sensitive people/ pets/plants for the next two night (even to the south of the expected freezing line just in case these locations get a little cooler than anticipated).
This will leave clear skies and cooler temps this morning with highs this afternoon only reaching into the mid 40s. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day as the next disturbance digs through the base of the closed low currently situated over the Illinois/Indiana.
(This evening through Friday) Northwest flow aloft will prevail over the forecast area as the upper level trough continues to dominate over the Plains region. Over the next 24 hours the upper level trough is expected to shift slightly to the east allowing upper level ridging to begin its track into the region from the west. 850mb temperatures 3 to 5 degrees warmer than previous days, in addition to increasing thickness heights and abundant sunshine will allow temperatures tomorrow to warm up into the mid to upper 50s.
A small baroclinic low pressure system which moved east through the Straits this morning is now nearing the central Bahamas. Surface observations and satellite imagery place a slow moving cold front over the eastern Gulf. Dewpoints behind the front are below freezing near Mobile and Slidell.
1215 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2023 Aviation Latest radar as of 15Z shows westerly moving showers as the rain bands move around the low pressure system. -- Clouds and Rain or Drizzle Through Friday -- A relative pressure minimum in the lower levels will consolidate and deepen slightly over southern Michigan today, and maintain patches of rain showers or drizzle amid widespread low cloud cover. Despite the northeast flow, our area is still sourcing relatively mild air, limiting the potential for freezing temperatures. Latest consensus of short-term model guidance places the highest likelihood of rain northwest of Grand Rapids this morning, then south of Muskegon-Alma this afternoon. -- Dry Start to the Weekend -- Rain showers move out on Friday evening as stubborn upper low/trough is finally booted out by upstream kicker dropping southeast from Canada.
1135 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 Last gasp of light snow and flurries will move through eastern areas this morning as vorticity lobe rotates around the upper low now over Illinois.
Moisture routed between the departing low and a developing ridge extending from Baja California Sur north-northeastward across the Great Basin and northern Rockies has resulted in an uptick in cirrus clouds, especially along and west of the Pecos River today. These clouds are of little consequence, with mostly clear skies tonight setting the table for another night of efficient radiational cooling as lows drop into the lower 20s north and across the Marfa Plateau to lower 30s south.
1033 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2023 Update Latest radar as of 15Z shows westerly moving showers as the rain bands move around the low pressure system. -- Clouds and Rain or Drizzle Through Friday -- A relative pressure minimum in the lower levels will consolidate and deepen slightly over southern Michigan today, and maintain patches of rain showers or drizzle amid widespread low cloud cover. Despite the northeast flow, our area is still sourcing relatively mild air, limiting the potential for freezing temperatures. Latest consensus of short-term model guidance places the highest likelihood of rain northwest of Grand Rapids this morning, then south of Muskegon-Alma this afternoon. -- Dry Start to the Weekend -- Rain showers move out on Friday evening as stubborn upper low/trough is finally booted out by upstream kicker dropping southeast from Canada.
1144 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 (Today through Friday Night) Below normal temperatures, cloudy and breezy conditions are expected to persist across much of the state through the period as a persistent H500 cyclone slowly progresses away from the region.
A ridge of high pressure will build in quickly behind the aforementioned low and keep winds elevated across the Lakes as we head into Friday night.
All activity should be finished by around 6 PM as the last main vorticity maxima pushes south on the backside of the Missouri upper level low. Concurrently, a weak cold front will move in and slightly reinforce drier air to the region tonight. Flow aloft will weaken as the low vacates to the northeast tomorrow, and a quiet day of sunshine and lighter winds will ensue.
1125 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) A deep upper low over Missouri/Illinois and a ridge over the Rocky Mountains keep the South Plains in northerly flow the next couple of days.
215 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 - Clearing skies tonight as the upper low exits the central plains.
Pcpn is having a hard time changing over til dew points drop into the lower 30s, which has just occurred up north. We do note the low shows some signs of intensification again late tonight-early Friday morning as QG forcing occurs coincident with another slug of moisture coming around its backside. Heights rise again as the low departs this weekend, which translates to a slight moderation in temps.
Look for temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s tonight.
1005 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 Key Messages: - Cool front to push down across the plains today, bringing breezy conditions to the lower elevations. The main change is that it will be noticeably more breezy today across the plains, and expect winds to shift to a more northerly component around the noon hour today across the lower elevations.
/ISSUED 350 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2023/ Well the end of December is near with 4 days left (if you include today) and we have been under upper level ridging the last few days. Temperatures for the next five days continue to be well above normal with highs in the 40s and today could reach into the low 50s.
1055 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 - The last round of snow associated with the upper low that has been impacting our area since Christmas Eve is finally passing through the heart of our forecast area this morning.
1126 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 - The last round of snow associated with the upper low that has been impacting our area since Christmas Eve is finally passing through the heart of our forecast area this morning.
Impacts are expected to be minimal as snow is mainly expected on grassy or elevated surface as temperatures are expected to remain in the low to mid 30s through the event.
Satellite imagery shows an upper-level low pressure center near Southern IL slowly moving eastward, pushing the trough axis closer to our region. Majority of the precipitation activity associated with the trough will remain north of the CWA today. The elongated upper low will continue to wobble eastward through tonight as several vort maxima pivot around it - supporting some bands of light precip over the Ohio River Valley and Mid-South regions.
200 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 - Clearing skies tonight as the upper low exits the central plains.
1010 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 Last gasp of light snow and flurries will move through eastern areas this morning as vorticity lobe rotates around the upper low now over Illinois.
The heavier rains are shifting east as the low pressure system departs the Straits of Florida. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 60s, and highs should stay below 70 this afternoon. From synopsis, a small low pressure system in the Straits of Florida will continue to the east today, with strong northerly breezes and areas of rain ending as the system nears the Bahamas. Thereafter, gentle to moderate northwest to north breezes will peak and lull as weak cold fronts pivot through the Gulf of Mexico.
(Today through Friday) Very quiet weather in the short term as high pressure dominates the area. Once this trough passes, drier air moves back in and clear skies are expected the remainder of the short term period. These clouds will help keep temperatures above freezing area-wide tonight. Look for high temperatures in the low to mid 60s Friday before temperatures fall into the 30s for much of the region Friday night. When we last saw temperatures below freezing for portions of South Texas, the Canadian model handled those temperatures the best by far.
Overnight lows will be around freezing by sunrise. Surface temps should hold in the 30s with freezing levels generally aob 700 feet for much of the area. Again however, amounts look light and temperatures should be a few degrees above freezing. Low temperatures by morning will be in the lower to mid 30s.
Aloft, a large cutoff upper low continues to expand and weaken over western Missouri. A better chance of precipitation will occur tomorrow as the backside of the upper low pivots southeast across the region. AC3 Cloudy and chilly conditions will persist across the region through Friday as an upper level low pressure system remains overhead.
1033 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 High pressure will dominate through this weekend with dry conditions.
333 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2023 An upper trough will linger over the area though late week, with a mainly dry front moving through Friday.
High pressure will strengthen over western Montana and north central Idaho tonight into this weekend. However, a fair amount of cloud cover is expected to traverse through the high pressure ridge, which should keep inversions from becoming overly strong and keep a widespread dense fog event from developing.
Tonight, freezing temperatures return to most of the forecast area, bottoming out in the upper 20s to near freezing over most areas north of I-10, low to mid 30s south of I-10 to near the coast. Wind chills are expected to range from the low to mid 20s along and north of Highway 84 to around 30 along the coast tonight.
An upper level low over the midwest spins as it gradually tracks eastward. Temperatures remain mild this evening and overnight with lows falling into the low to mid 40s. Similar conditions are expected Friday as the upper level low over the midwest moves eastward while another upper level low over Canada dips into the northeast. Temperatures on Friday will be slightly cooler, but still above normal, with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
1142 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 (Today through Friday) This AM, satellite is indicating a quick drop off in cloud cover behind a cold front that is moving SEWD across C AL at this time. Behind it temps and dew points are dropping with cooler readings for today. With WNW winds ~ 5-10 MPH this afternoon along with highs some 4-10 degrees lower, it will feel much cooler today than yesterday. A large upper low is currently over MO/IL this morning and will slowly nudge/swing its way toward OH/WV through the short term.
A cold front will eventually approach behind the disturbance on Friday and weaken in its approach tonight into Friday morning.
(Tonight) Cloud cover continues to infiltrate the Tennessee Valley ahead of a slow-moving low pressure system that will be meandering to the south overnight. Ceilings will lower to between 1-2 kft after Midnight as the lower-levels of the atmosphere continue to moisten.
1202 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance - Light freezing drizzle mixed with snow is likely early this morning west of a Florence to Antigo to Wisconsin Rapids line.
1131 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 (Today and tonight) A broad cyclone centered over Missouri will continue to be the main feature over the CONUS today and tonight as it moves slowly to the east. The forecast area will remain on the southwestern flank of the cyclone with an upper level short wave trough rotating to the south/southeast down the central/southern Plains with some low and mid cloud cover skirting the eastern third of the forecast area as well as reinforcing northerly surface winds and slight cooling from yesterday's highs and this morning's lows due to modest cold air advection.
Rounding this upper low is a vorticity maximum that will bring light wet snow to much of the area late this afternoon through Friday morning. Model soundings near and west of the Mississippi River indicate that a secondary vorticity maximum band will round the upper low and cause moderate lift within the dendritic growth zone.
136 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2023 (This afternoon through Friday) A closed low is catching up with the rest of the upper level flow and is set to bring the dreaded 540mb line south of the Mason-Dixon line. As a result, temps are expected to fall below freezing for a large part of the CWA tonight. The impact to the morning commute will likely be minimal and localized to the higher elevations.
652 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2023 Weak high pressure will bring a relatively quiet night as a cooling trend begins over the Upper Ohio River Valley.
503 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 (This evening through Friday) The occluded mid-latitude cyclone/cutoff low that has been the primary weather influence across the Plains and Midwest continues to cyclonically spin across Indiana as it slowly drifts to the east. Any precipitation amounts will be light with no travel impacts (temperatures are above freezing).
While conditions should be largely dry Friday afternoon, it isn't until subsidence associated with a high pressure ridge arrives Friday night that chances for precipitation completely cut off.
as the expansive upper level low over the central CONUS finally shifts eastward to the Appalachians (Fri) and Atlantic (Sat). With this in mind, areas situated along and north of I-70 in eastern CO and far northwest KS (where snow depth is greatest) are most likely to experience a muted warming trend /relatively cooler temperatures/.
525 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 (This evening through Friday) Northwest flow aloft will prevail over the forecast area as the upper level trough continues to dominate over the Plains region. Over the next 24 hours the upper level trough is expected to shift slightly to the east allowing upper level ridging to begin its track into the region from the west. 850mb temperatures 3 to 5 degrees warmer than previous days, in addition to increasing thickness heights and abundant sunshine will allow temperatures tomorrow to warm up into the mid to upper 50s.
Gradually cooler/drier conditions. A cold front across north FL will continue to make progress southward through the night and will be across central FL by sunrise Fri morning. After a cool night, low temps in the L-M50s, except U40s for normally cooler locations north of I-4, afternoon highs will only recover into the L-M60s, except some U60s to around 70F closer towards the south Brevard and Treasure coasts. The winds will make it feeler cooler than the forecast temps.
549 PM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 600PM EVENING UPDATE: Looking at the Temp and dewpoint hourlies for the front of the dam it has become evident the the dewpoint over the lake is much warmer than the temps at the base of the dam during the morning hours.
555 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 (Tonight) Cloud cover continues to infiltrate the Tennessee Valley ahead of a slow-moving low pressure system that will be meandering to the south overnight. Ceilings will lower to between 1-2 kft after Midnight as the lower-levels of the atmosphere continue to moisten.
445 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 - Clearing skies tonight as the upper low exits the central plains.
(This evening through Friday) The occluded mid-latitude cyclone/cutoff low that has been the primary weather influence across the Plains and Midwest continues to cyclonically spin across Indiana as it slowly drifts to the east. Any precipitation amounts will be light with no travel impacts (temperatures are above freezing).
234 PM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 Key Messages: - Slightly warmer on Friday. the upper pattern will continue to be dominated by the large area of low pressure drifting from Missouri into the Ohio Valley. As the upper low drifts eastward, the gradient will begin to relax across the region, with light winds forecast overnight. The upper low will continue to pull away from the area as high pressure begins to build in from the west on Friday. Large upper trough will span much of the eastern half of the CONUS, while a period of upper ridging is anticipated across the region into the weekend.
252 PM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 A strong and amplified ridge of high pressure continues to shelter the state from precipitation and active weather over the next few days. The main exception to the warmer temperatures will be the Wind River and Upper Green River Basins, where cold air has caused the development of deep cold pools/inversions.
403 PM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 - High pressure dominates the weather the next several days, with a warming trend kicking in Friday into the weekend. Our CWA remains in a northerly flow with strong valley inversions still present among the northwest Colorado valleys, Gunnison basin and Upper Colorado River Basin, including Eagle as temps struggle to get above freezing and remain in the upper teens to low 20s at this time. Temperatures will be the biggest challenge over the near term, at least through Friday as the high pressure ridge axis slides overhead on Friday, with very light flow aloft and nothing to help promote mixing or break up these inversions.
No big changes in the short term forecast as high pressure continues to be in control over eastern Idaho through the rest of the week and even into the early weekend.
Upper ridging is the dominating weather pattern, keeping temperatures ~10 degrees above normal (low to mid 40s) but relatively light winds with weak, embedded waves passing through. A weak frontal passage will occur this evening, shifting winds to the northwest but not bringing any cooler temperatures with it.
Slightly cooler than average temperatures are expected tonight with overnight lows ranging from the mid 40s to the north and the mid 50s further south.
(This afternoon through Friday) A closed low is catching up with the rest of the upper level flow and is set to bring the dreaded 540mb line south of the Mason-Dixon line. As a result, temps are expected to fall below freezing for a large part of the CWA tonight. The impact to the morning commute will likely be minimal and localized to the higher elevations.
538 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 (Tonight thru Friday morning) An east-west elongated wave/cold core aloft wrapping around the broad upper cyclone over the central part of the country is bringing scattered sprinkles and flurries to portions of the area this afternoon.
321 PM PST Thu Dec 28 2023 Temperatures will again be much warmer than average today and tomorrow.
525 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 (Today through Friday) Very quiet weather in the short term as high pressure dominates the area. Once this trough passes, drier air moves back in and clear skies are expected the remainder of the short term period. These clouds will help keep temperatures above freezing area-wide tonight. Look for high temperatures in the low to mid 60s Friday before temperatures fall into the 30s for much of the region Friday night. When we last saw temperatures below freezing for portions of South Texas, the Canadian model handled those temperatures the best by far.