Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure has brought a chilly airmass sinking down across the Northland tonight, with temperatures falling below freezing along the Iron Range and north so far this morning. Increased ridging and high pressure will be the dominant story today, with mostly clear skies and highs in the 60s - quite a different story from yesterday! Clear skies should persist into the overnight hours, which is expected to lead to another chilly night into Thursday morning. Further west over north-central Minnesota temperatures should stay warmer with the beginnings of a WAA regime ahead of an incoming front. Thanks to this flow, Thursday should feature warmer temperatures than we have seen for at least a couple days, if not a week.
612 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 (Today) The cold front that brought showers and a few thunderstorms to the local area yesterday is now positioned to our south and east across central Alabama into Northern Georgia. In its wake, post frontal cloud cover remains entrenched over much of the Tennessee Valley into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. As a result, afternoon highs today only peak in the lower 80s.
(Rest of Today) The cold front responsible for the shower/storm activity yesterday evening has since shifted well S/E of the local CWFA this morning, leaving some low/mid-level clouds in its wake. Daytime highs will heavily depend on how quickly these pesky clouds vacate the local area, with highs expected to top out in the lower/middle 80s for most locations later today.
636 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 (Today through Thursday) A short wave trough across the Great Lakes region was producing weak lift across the Gulf Coast states, resulting on an extensive area of mid level clouds.
625 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 (Today and tonight) A low-amplitude upper trough over the southern U. By late tonight, the main part of this flat trough will traverse across northern TX/southern OK.
(Tonight) Aside from lingering mid/high level clouds in place across the region in the wake of a recently-departed cold front, relatively benign weather is expected overnight. Morning lows will bottom out in the lower 60s for most spots, with a few locations in Southern Middle Tennessee dipping into the upper 50s.
The clear skies, subsidence inversion from the approaching high pressure, and soil moisture from recent rainfall continues to suggest a fog threat tonight. Stratus moving southward from central Wisconsin is limiting fog in our northern areas but cloud cover is not expected to move much further south as the upper trough is shifting east. North winds will increase slightly along the Lake Michigan shoreline behind the line of convection due to high pressure pushing southward into northeast Minnesota. The high will sag over Lake Michigan tonight.
A persistent mid-level ridge will remain anchored across North Mexico through the short term, supporting near record to record high temperatures above the century mark anywhere inland.
104 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Currently, the recent frontal boundary is located just to our south with increasing northerly flow ahead of drier, cooler air. (Today and tonight) Key Message: Drier and cooler air moving in during the period. Drier and cooler air will be moving in behind the front.
The cold front associated with it will drive the temperatures down a bit today with highs barely nudging 80 degrees with the exception of the Gorge and Basin (>80%). This will being warmer temperatures back to the region beginning tomorrow.
355 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 A mid level trough will move east through the Great Lakes offering a few showers across the north this evening. Cooler temperatures and dry weather can be expected through the end of the week. High temperatures Thursday will be slightly warmer than today with readings topping out generally in the lower and middle 70s. Mostly clear sky conditions Thursday night with lows ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s.
Heavy rain will be possible on the high terrain, but gusty winds and lighting are likely going to be the primary concerns with any storms over lower elevations.
A couple of spotty showers/sprinkles will remain possible this afternoon mainly over the northern tier as leading edge of upper level trough and associated colder air aloft rotates into CPA. Dry air advection in the low levels will remain a limiting factor with dewpoints falling into the 45-55F range by later tonight. Seasonably cooler overnight (+/- 3F of mid Sept. Thursday's high temps will trend about 2 to 5 deg F cooler vs.
259 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 The mid/upper level trough continues to dig into the Lower Great Lakes and eastern Ontario while a ridge builds in from our west. Cloud cover is in turn leading to a bit of a temperature gradient across the UP, with temperatures generally in the mid and upper 50s in the western UP and the lower 60s to the east. Temperatures should quickly fall back after sunset, largely ranging in the lower to mid 30s in the interior and in the upper 30s to mid 40s along the lakeshores. There, temperatures have a better chance of falling back to near freezing. This may help to keep temperatures there a little warmer than expected, limiting frost potential. -Dry and warmer Thursday.
South of the boundary, storms have developed as expected that will be capable of producing gusty winds as temperatures reach the the lower 90s across our far southeast counties. Dewpoints may actually drop into the lower 50s across northwest counties and locations such as Haleyville overnight tonight, while Barbour County and Eufaula stays in the upper 60s to near 70. Surface flow will be from the north and northeast tomorrow as the ridge of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes strengthens and pressure gradient tightens due to Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic. Highs Thursday will remain on the mild side, ranging from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south due to mostly cloudy skies remaining in place.
Overnight, high pressure will gradually shift eastward and become centered over the Great Lakes. Subsidence and recent CAA will promote a cooler night than last night with many places falling into the 50s. Thursday On Thursday, troughing and high pressure to the north will continue to shift further eastward with a more easterly component to surface winds.
Elsewhere, fog could be a problem late tonight given the high low level RH, steam fog from rivers and lakes, and still moist ground in many areas. Temperatures could once again reach the upper 30s across the northern interior on Thursday night with surface ridging bringing good radiational cooling conditions. Northern stream remains active with a sharp upper trough axis swinging through over the weekend.
133 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Isolated to scattered showers are expected today with cool northwest flow and a crossing upper level trough. High pressure will then return dry and seasonably cooler weather through the rest of the week. Stratocu should persist through most of the day as an upper trough approaches, and lake enhancement occurs with a lake surface-850 mb temperature difference near 15 deg C. The trough and lake enhancement should also result in isolated to scattered rain showers across the region this afternoon. Lake enhanced showers diminish by sunset as the main trough axis swings through and subsidence builds overhead, leading to clearing skies and diminishing winds overnight. This combined with shallow boundary layer mixing will keep high temperatures cooler than normal with highs only in the upper 60s to near 70.
The loss in daytime heating and high pressure expanding in from the west will lead to partial if not full clearing tonight. Satellite data indicate the lower clouds thinning as they descent from the higher terrain to the north. A deep cut off upper low continues to slowly meander over the Great Lakes today, maintaining cool October-like weather. Mainly sunny skies then follow for the daylight period Thursday as the center of the high tracks directly overhead. Remnant thermal troughing holds temps well below normal but the sunshine should at least allow for a rebound toward the upper 60s.
1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 (Rest of Today) The cold front responsible for the shower/storm activity yesterday evening has since shifted well S/E of the local CWFA this morning, leaving some low/mid-level clouds in its wake. Daytime highs will heavily depend on how quickly these pesky clouds vacate the local area, with highs expected to top out in the lower/middle 80s for most locations later today.
Subtropical moisture has now spread across the entire forecast area with the highest values along and south of I-70. The high res models highlight the potential for heavy rain across the southern half of the area this afternoon. The higher terrain should also be a focus for development as well.
155 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 An upper trough with a correlating front at the sfc will move through the region late tonight through Thursday afternoon before stalling a bit across the far eastern cwa Thursday night.
At that time, the highest pressure rises of 3-4 mb will be over the western SD plains, but will decrease as the morning progresses. Highs Thursday will be noticeably cooler, ranging from the 60s across northeastern WY to the upper 70s across south central SD.
As the subsidence inversion from the approaching high pressure system sets in, the winds become light and variable, and the skies clear out, we are expecting patchy fog to develop in south central and west central Wisconsin late tonight.
1123 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Isolated to scattered showers are expected today with cool northwest flow and a crossing upper level trough. High pressure will then return dry and seasonably cooler weather through the rest of the week. Stratocu should persist through most of the day as an upper trough approaches, and lake enhancement occurs with a lake surface-850 mb temperature difference near 15 deg C. The trough and lake enhancement should also result in isolated to scattered rain showers across the region this afternoon. Lake enhanced showers diminish by sunset as the main trough axis swings through and subsidence builds overhead, leading to clearing skies and diminishing winds overnight. This combined with shallow boundary layer mixing will keep high temperatures cooler than normal with highs only in the upper 60s to near 70.
1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 (Today and tonight) Flat ridging aloft will be in place over Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico. To the north of this ridge, our area will remain under quasi-zonal flow aloft today and tonight.
211 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 A mid-level trough will move east through the Great Lakes today, as drier air moves into the Ohio Valley. Cooler temperatures and dry weather can be expected through the end of the week. High pressure will bring quiet weather for the rest of Thursday, with highs a degree or two warmer than Wednesday. Mid-level heights will be rising at the beginning of the period as a ridge sharpens between Lee and the next approaching short wave. This ridge will translate east as a short wave digs southeast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley over the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will continue to predominate early with fairly large diurnal ranges in the dry airmass.
1222 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 (Today through Thursday) The persistent mid-level ridge remains anchored across northern Mexico through the short term, keeping well above normal temperatures in place today and Thursday.
An upper level trough passing through western Montana today will lead to a few showers across the region, especially close to the Continental Divide. A few areas will likely see frost as temperatures drop to near freezing, including the higher valleys near the Continental Divide (Butte, Seeley Lake, Potomac, etc). High pressure will build over western Montana and north central Idaho for Thursday into the weekend.
/13 (Now through Thursday) Upper level troughing across the eastern CONUS today begins to eject northeast allowing for the forecast area to transition to a more zonal flow aloft by Thursday. As this occurs, the cold front will push through the area into tonight. Forecast highs will likely be much cooler over the interior areas of southeastern Mississippi into southwestern Alabama relative to the prior day where morning convection keeps temperatures from rising.
Dew points this afternoon mixed out into the mid to upper 40s well inland, but remained in the low 50s behind the lake-enhanced boundary across northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana. Kluber The upper ridge that is expected to be in place at the start of the period is forecast to be getting shoved east as an upper trough enters the Great Lakes.
1240 PM MDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Longwave trough continues to push east across MT and ID closer to the western CWA border. A bit cooler temperatures Thursday but no other significant hazards are expected at this time.
This marks the development of a weak low pressure system that will slowly move through Oklahoma over the next couple of days.
Upper ridging has shifted southeast of Florida allowing for a quasi- zonal upper level pattern to set up over the Florida peninsula. Farther to the north, a closed upper low spins north of the Great Lakes with associated troughing extending south through Tennessee. On the surface, high pressure remains centered in the central Gulf of Mexico through the week. A little farther north, a series of low pressure centers is located along an extensive frontal boundary that extends southward along the eastern seaboard, then turns westward through Georgia and extends farther westward to Texas. This front will linger over northern Florida through the week with minor fluctuations north and south as areas of low pressure move eastward along this front.
(Now through Tuesday) The upper ridge axis just to our west from eastern Texas/western Louisiana northward to the lower Great Lakes region will begin to breakdown late in the near term.
Lows will range from the upper 50s in the east to the low 60s in the west. Subsidence and drying associated with these features is leading to temperatures warming into the lower 90s today and tomorrow, afternoon RH values of 25-35 percent, and only scattered afternoon fair weather cumulus around the region. Pockets of low moisture content have been drifting westward across the Gulf Coast region around the southern side of the high pressure system, with PWAT values below 0. 8 inches corresponding generally with surface dew points in the lower to mid 50s.
Drier and warmer weather remains on tap for late in the week through the weekend. A weak front continues to move across Western Washington this afternoon with troughing moving east tonight. A few showers lingering Tuesday into Wednesday with troughing to the north. Upper ridging then builds into the Pacific Northwest for drier, warmer weather through the weekend.
The 500mb ridge remains overhead today, keeping skies mostly sunny through the evening and overnight. Tonight, the upper ridge will shift eastwards slightly, bringing the pressure gradient axis more into the area. Overnight low temperatures will range from the middle 50s to the lower 60s. Skies should remain clear until cloud cover from an approaching cold front well to our west arrives in the evening, but this should be too late in the day to impact daytime highs. Temps at 925mb and 850mb are also a degree or so cooler, but given a warmer start from mixing overnight and southwesterly flow at the surface, kept the forecast high temps in the lower to middle 80s for most of the region.
255 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Key Points: * Showers and a few thunderstorms possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as cold front moves through the region.
1105 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Cooler and more unsettled conditions continue today as the second wave within the trough over the western US pulls north through Wyoming. Regardless, the heaviest precipitation will be tonight through Tuesday morning, decreasing through the afternoon as the trough axis passes to the east. Wednesday will be slightly warmer and drier as heights build behind the trough.
123 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 (Through Tonight) Strong high pressure will remain over the northeast, with ridge extending south across forecast area. Troughing over the coastal waters continues, providing a pinched pressure gradient. As the flow inland is becoming more northerly, the cooler and drier air will advect in through the night, resulting in lows in the upper 50s inland. While the onshore flow across the still warm Atlantic coastal waters will keep beach communities in the lower 70s.
A round of rain is likely to end the week followed by cooler and breezy conditions with rain showers downwind of Lake Erie over the weekend. Persistence forecasting and the latest NAMNest suggest fog will mix out between 13Z-15Z, with only scattered afternoon cumulus focused on the high terrain of the Alleghenies.
(Today and tonight) One last warm day across the area today as higher mid-level heights shift eastward with the approach of a large scale mid- level trough. This aforementioned trough will be responsible for active weather this afternoon and evening.
Rain chances return by Wednesday night as a strong cold front approaches the region.
(Today through Wednesday) Deep-layer ridging remains established across much of the eastern CONUS today where daytime temperatures continue to run several degrees above average. Dry tropospheric conditions will also continue along with a large footprint of high pressure centered near the Mid Atlantic. Thus, easterly breezes are forecast today with highs in the low to upper 80s - essentially a persistence forecast. However, a footprint of high pressure and dry air will remained wedged into the Southeast, and I don't expect any meaningful change in our weather for tomorrow. Highs in the low to upper 80s remain forecast, with winds slowly becoming more southeasterly as the high pressure center moves off farther northeast.
The eastern zones will be the favored areas for the highest rainfall amounts with totals ranging from a half inch to over an inch along the North Dakota border.
Key Messages: - Warmer temps to continue through Tuesday before a cold front approaches from the west, bringing the next chance for rain.
116 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure will persist through mid-week.
Sunny skies are expected today thanks to the upper ridge. Highs in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower 60s will make for summer-like weather. Overnight lows in the lower 60s will only be a few degrees away from normal highs in the mid 60s. A strong cold front will begin to push across the lake Wednesday.
Guidance is in good agreement that the low level ridge axis will become more tilted tomorrow allowing winds to take on a more south southeasterly flow which will advect some higher moisture back inland yielding somewhat higher RH values. Along with the higher moisture, a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms can't be ruled out, but these should remain isolated.
Thereafter, rain enters the forecast along with notably cooler conditions through the end of the week. High pressure centered over the Northeast will provide tranquil weather for much of the eastern third of the US through the short term period. A cold front approaches the region beginning Wednesday night.
Near the end of the short term forecast period, Wednesday night, a cold front will approach and push through the area.
Discussion: WV satellite imagery this morning continues to show the Omega Block pattern with the upper ridge axis extending northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes.
Late-week cold front still looks to produce less than 1/4" total QPF most areas, but those weekend temperatures do look marvelous.
155 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure will remain in place over the eastern United States through mid-week.
Key Messages - Gusty south winds persist this evening, in advance of an incoming wave and cold front progged to arrive tomorrow afternoon and evening.
(Today through Wednesday) High pressure remains dominate over the area and this will remain the case through at least Wed. A few showers could tickle the coast from time to time with moisture loading ahead of a strong cold front moving toward the area Wed.
A couple more days of very warm and dry weather will accompany a pronounced 500 mb ridge over the eastern states and Mississippi Valley. Daytime highs will continue to approach 90 degrees, with some locations in se Missouri in the lower 90s. An increase in cloudiness is forecast on Wednesday as the upper ridge starts to break down. A major transition to cooler weather will occur late this week, with temperatures this weekend becoming chilly at night.
323 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The center of the 800-700mb anticyclone that has impacted the area the last few days will drift across the eastern Great Lakes (Erie into Ontario) today. This will establish a little better southerly return flow in comparison to yesterday, resulting in a slightly warmer airmass overhead. In light of regional high temps from yesterday, afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 80s today. On Wednesday the low-mid level ridge will be forced to the east coast while long wave troughing advances across the central US and Upper Midwest.
1015 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Current water vapor and upper air analysis shows upper trough situated over the western CONUS, with ridge stretching over the Great Lakes region, and northwest flow over the forecast area. On Tuesday, upper trough axis moves through the Plains with fairly widespread showers and a few storms and a continued cool down with breezy northwest flow. Wednesday is looking drier as trough shifts to the east.
910 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure building over the West Coast this week will bring warmer weather to Southern California.
A low pressure system will bring cooler conditions and occasional breeziness to the Desert Southwest through this evening. A return to above normal temperatures is anticipated late in the week as high pressure builds across the intermountain West.
222 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure maintains dry and sunny weather through midweek, with river valley fog developing each night.
345 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 High pressure prevails through much of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal.
(Today through Wednesday Night ) An upper level ridge will be over the eastern half of the U. today with an upper trough over the Rockies, moving into the Plains tonight. This upper trough moves into the Mississippi River Valley Wednesday night. Strong high pressure at the surface will continue over Arkansas through tonight. A cold front will move into the Plains Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will be cooler behind the front in the lower 70s to near 90 degrees.
100 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 Conditions will be quiet and temperatures will trend warmer through mid week.
316 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Over the course of the day today, our Omega block at the mid-levels breaks -- with the trough over the western CONUS broadening and translating eastward -- causing the dominant ridge's axis to tilt and become oriented toward New England. The combination of this ridging alot and the broad, 1020-1025 mb high at the surface keeps our dome of warm, dry air locked in place across the eastern half of the country. High and low temperatures remain a persistence forecast, with only 1-2 degree fluctuations in each expected each day thanks to the stagnant airmass -- highs in the low-to-mid-80s, and lows near 60 (about 6-8 degrees above average for early October).