Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
100 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Widespread rain is expected ahead of an afternoon crossing cold front. Colder and windy conditions are anticipated this weekend as an upper level low moves across the Great Lakes. Once the wave axis, riding over top of the diminishing ridge, exits to the east, expect a break in measurable rain until closer to dawn. A deepening upper level low will dig into the western Great Lakes this morning. Ahead of this low, a plume of moisture will spread across the area. Driving this plume eastward is an impressive mid March cold front.
1210 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (This evening through Friday) 2 PM West Texas Mesonet observations show the east-west oriented cold front located just north of Lubbock County and quickly moving south. Strong westerly winds will continue ahead of the front in the lower South Plains and the southern Rolling Plains this afternoon before the arrival of the front. Tonight is expected to be much colder in the wake of the cold front with lows in the 20s and low 30s for most locations.
Much cooler temperatures through the weekend with morning wind chills in the single digits to teens. Much cooler air has moved into the area behind a system and associated cold front.
Otherwise, stronger southerly winds are likely this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
1214 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (Tonight) Light rainfall continues to gradually move eastward across west TN/north MS this Thu evening, as a cold front approaches the MS River. Current temps in the lower 60s/near 60F will also fall into the lower/mid 50s overnight, before cooler air arrives following the passage of the cold front.
531 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (Today) A mid-level trof axis was exiting off to the east of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early this morning. the mid-level trof is expected to continue to move off to the east with cloud cover becoming more scattered over the CWA.
Highs reaching the lower 80s along the coast and mid-80s inland. Morning lows in the lower to mid-60s. Warm, dry conditions will produce minimum relative humidity values in the low to mid 30 percent range across the interior.
At 245 AM, the strong trough that brought rain, snow and wind to the region yesterday was centered over the Great Lakes. The troughs arrival in Nebraska and Iowa this afternoon will result in significant cooling in 850-700 mb layer and coincide with the peak in diurnal heating at the surface. CAM soundings suggest snow as the main precipitation type, with boundary layer instability, lift and the placement of the DGZ favoring snow rates that should overcome a shallow layer of near or above freezing temperatures at the surface. Any snow squall activity may be hazardous to travelers, especially along Interstate 80 where the higher traffic speeds increase the potential risks from rapidly deteriorating visibility or sudden snow accumulations.
440 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the western Great Lakes region. A developing low is located across central SD, with a cold front stretching northwest across western ND into southwest Canada. Upper level analysis shows trough now over the upper midwest, with low pressure over southern portions of Lake Winnipeg moving south-southeastward. Upper jet to the west- southwest of the low extends across eastern MT into the western Dakotas. Chances for snow showers will continue through a good portion of today as the cold front slides south through the forecast area and the upper low tracks across eastern ND into the upper midwest.
650 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 A cold front will sweep across the region this morning. Cold front approaching western border of the forecast area will sweep across the region this morning. Current temperatures are pretty much the highs for the day as readings will be dropping into the mid 30s to lower 40s before steadying out this afternoon. However, a new cloud deck will spread southeast across the area late tonight through Saturday morning in association with a secondary cold front. On Saturday evening, a large upper low will be moving slowly eastward across Ontario and Quebec.
735 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (Today through Saturday) Models and sfc analyses show weakening high pressure over the area gradually pushing east as a trough/low complex moves across the NE CONUS. Pressure gradients between the departing ridge and the approaching front will increase a bit, and enhancing flow into the 12-15mph range, with higher gusts at times. The generally southerly flow will keep relatively warmer air in place, with afternoon temps back into the low-mid 80s today, and into the mid-upper 80s Saturday afternoon.
(Rest of Today) An upper low will begin to sink south through southern Manitoba and into the northern Plains today, pushing a dry but unseasonably cold airmass across a large portion of the CONUS. Temperatures will quickly fall this afternoon as high pressure pushes the cold air through the area, with much of the area dropping to the low to mid 40s by 4pm.
735 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Widespread rain is expected ahead of an afternoon cold front. Colder and windy conditions are anticipated this weekend as an upper level low moves across the Great Lakes. A deepening upper level low will dig into the western Great Lakes this morning. Ahead of this low, a plume of moisture will spread across the area. Driving this plume eastward is an impressive mid March cold front. Upper troughing associated with closed low pressure near the Canadian province of Quebec will maintain below average temperature for Saturday as a well-mixed boundary layer promotes increasing wind gusts during the afternoon, quite possibly nearing advisory criteria once again.
High temperatures across the Northern Rockies will remain below normal to end the work week, with most locations reaching the low 20s to near 40 degrees. High temperatures will remain below normal today and on Saturday, with readings peaking out in the low 20s (North Central Montana) to near 40 degrees (snow free valleys across Central and Southwest Montana).
554 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (Today and tonight) The cool air mass in place across Oklahoma and northern Texas will be augmented by another cooler air mass Friday night. This cool and dry air mass will range from central Saskatchewan to the lower half of the Arkansas Valley by Saturday morning.
* Cold air behind todays front will result in temperatures struggling to climb above freezing Saturday.
Much cooler temperatures through the weekend with morning wind chills in the single digits to teens. Much cooler air has moved into the area behind a system and associated cold front. However, if a stratus deck is in place as shown by the HRRR and RAP across central MO, cooler temperatures would be seen. Overall think the cloud cover will not materialize given incoming ridging and very dry air.
Steady precipitation, which had changed to snow in most areas, was tapering off over eastern WI early this morning as low pressure and an associated cold front exited the region. Expect lake-effect to really kick in across north central WI tonight, especially between 03z-09z/Sat, as low-level winds veer north-northwest and synoptic enhancement occurs with the passage of the upper low. Blustery northwest winds will continue, along with high temperatures only in the lower to middle 20s.
Therefore, most locations should stay above freezing overnight, ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
High pressure will continue to bring mostly clear skies, overall light winds, and cooler than normal temperatures. Look for temperatures to be slightly warmer Saturday over today.
Breezy west to northwest winds behind a cold front will continue to usher in colder temps today, with highs likely staying below freezing most places. Could see flurries for a time tomorrow as the upper trough swings through.
We will be keeping some clouds around into Saturday as the upper low and large scale trough will still be pushing across much of C and E Conus with WSW to W flow over AL Saturday, but no precip is expected after the exit of pops to the SE this evening.
06Z observations show an upper low in the Canadian prairie Providences and an associated trough extending through the central plains. Tonight another lobe of cold around the upper low in Canada will dive south through the northern and central plains and the leading edge of the arctic air should arrive into central and northern Kansas by daybreak. Coldest temperatures will be in the east with slightly warmer temperatures near the Colorado border. Despite the sun the diurnal heating won't be that great as highs only make it into the upper 30s near Hays to the lower to mid 40s for everyone else.
Upper level ridging was noted over the western U. with another upper low south of the Aleutian Islands. Surface obs showed high pressure stretching from south TX through the Great Plains. Forecast soundings from the RAP and NAM show low level lapse rates steepening up to the dry adiabatic lapse rate by early afternoon as an axis of relatively high moisture moves through northeast KS ahead of another cold front. Along with some clouds on Saturday, low level cold air advection is expected to keep temps in the lower and middle 30s. Fortunately this cold outbreak looks to be short lived as the closed upper low shears out and the pattern shifts to some weak mid level ridging over the central plains.
A strong upper level low will move southward across the south central Canadian provinces and will trek towards the Great Lakes region through Saturday. With cloud cover lingering over portions of the CWA today and this cooler air mass overhead, temperatures today will likely remain in the 40s to low 50s. A weak front will move across the CWA early on Saturday and will continue to keep the region under the influence of a cooler air mass.
Large upper low will continue to push across the area today.
The mild air we have enjoyed only briefly yesterday and overnight will be swept out quickly with passage of a cold front this morning. Some rain showers will linger along and behind the cold front.
639 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (Today through Saturday) Sharp cold front is forecast to move through Deep South Texas in the next few hours which is 1 to 2 hours faster than the previous forecast. NBM is a bit cooler through the short term period than the previous forecast. Waves are forecast to reach 5 to 8 feet in the surf zone today which will make for dangerous swimming conditions when coupled with the High Risk of rip currents.
/DL/ Today through Saturday: A cold front is currently pushing across the area this morning, with a convective line now extending from near Brookhaven to Forest and a more broken line northeastward to De Kalb. It will turn much cooler tonight, but with the mid/upper trough lagging back to our west, clouds will be slow to depart.
702 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Widespread rain is expected ahead of an afternoon cold front. Colder and windy conditions are anticipated this weekend as an upper level low moves across the Great Lakes. A deepening upper level low will dig into the western Great Lakes this morning. Ahead of this low, a plume of moisture will spread across the area. Driving this plume eastward is an impressive mid March cold front. Upper troughing associated with closed low pressure near the Canadian province of Quebec will maintain below average temperature for Saturday as a well-mixed boundary layer promotes increasing wind gusts during the afternoon, quite possibly nearing advisory criteria once again.
(Today through Saturday) This morning, a high pressure ridge is SE of C AL centered just off of the FL coast. We will be keeping some clouds around into Saturday as the upper low and large scale trough will still be pushing across much of C and E Conus with WSW to W flow over AL Saturday, but no precip is expected after the exit of pops to the SE this evening.
A broken band of clouds courtesy of a convergence zone pivoting northward from the north coast of Cuba overnight is moving through the Lower Keys with nary a sprinkle. This afternoon, the high pressure to our northeast should begin to yeild to the approaching trough, with surface winds taking on more southerly components and a becoming a bit less gusty. Continuing from synopsis, high pressure centered over the western North Atlantic will slide eastward this afternoon through Saturday, with breezes diminishing and turning to the south.
411 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Today through Saturday: A cold front is currently pushing across the area this morning, with a convective line now extending from near Brookhaven to Forest and a more broken line northeastward to De Kalb. It will turn much cooler tonight, but with the mid/upper trough lagging back to our west, clouds will be slow to depart.
A sharp cold front has punched through the Upper Mississippi Valley region, dropping temps locally into the 20s. Area roadways, especially untreated pavement, bridges, and overpasses, may become slick overnight as temps continue to fall through the 20s. Tonight: Very cold conditions expected as temperatures fall back into the teens and the gusty winds lead to wind chills in the single digits above and below zero late tonight into early Saturday AM! Occasional flurries or brief isolated snow showers are possible but coverage looks to be on the low side. After a seasonably frigid start with sub-zero wind chills in many places, unbelievable for the time of year H85 MB cold pool of -18 to -20C continues to rotate down acrs the region west of northeastern GRT LKS vortex/large cold core closed low.
Overall, this is indicative of the influence of an area of high pressure which will allow for mild temperatures and sunny skies this afternoon. In general, expect similar conditions again tonight with cold temperatures, albeit the forecast lows are 1-3 degrees warmer than this morning.
932 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 A cold front will sweep across the region this morning. A cold front will continue to quickly move east across the area this morning. However, a new cloud deck will spread southeast across the area late tonight through Saturday morning in association with a secondary cold front. On Saturday evening, a large upper low will be moving slowly eastward across Ontario and Quebec.
(Today through Saturday) Sharp cold front is forecast to move through Deep South Texas in the next few hours which is 1 to 2 hours faster than the previous forecast. NBM is a bit cooler through the short term period than the previous forecast. Waves are forecast to reach 5 to 8 feet in the surf zone today which will make for dangerous swimming conditions when coupled with the High Risk of rip currents.
The low level winds will be fairly weak for the western half of the CWA tonight and tonight. For moisture, models have limited amounts over the southwestern CWA up into the high mountains of the divide this afternoon into early evening. Generally dry NW flow aloft will be over the area on Sat as another surge of cooler air affects the plains.
High pressure will build into the area through the end of the week.
Interior valleys located outside of stratus were experiencing low temperatures in the mid 20s to mid 30s, with areas of frost and freezing conditions supporting cold-weather headlines in portions of Mendocino and Lake Counties. Otherwise, after sunrise, high clouds are forecast to spread east across the region as the previously mentioned ridge exits the region and a weak upper wave enters from the west.
638 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Forecast on track as upper low bringing some light snow to areas north of the border evident on Canadian radars.
However, no accumulations are expected due to warm ground temperatures and surface temps remaining above freezing.
The low pressure system that initially brought our precipitation has shifted east. An upper level low has settled south near the Great Lakes today which will allow for continued cold air advection. A reinforcing cold front is set to arrive to Northwest Missouri by late this afternoon and make a push through the rest of the region overnight. Mid and low level moisture have lingered in the area today, and with the cold fronts arrival, there may be enough lift to spark some additional snow showers or sprinkles through the evening primarily across northern Missouri.
Water vapor imagery at 19Z shows a closed upper low spinning over the Upper Midwest followed by low-amplitude ridging over the Pacific coast. Another consideration is the higher sun angle at this time of year, which should help keep sfc temperatures warmer and alleviate the concern for quick accumulations compared to the middle of winter.
258 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Rain showers occur until a cold frontal passage this afternoon. A cold front will exit east of the mountains by this evening with a few lingering rain showers tapering off shortly after. Strong gusty winds aloft could be produce gusty winds at the surface along the cold front, continuing along the higher elevations through tonight. Another but dry cold front sinks from the north early Saturday, reinforcing the cold air in place. Lows tonight will sink into the upper 20s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper teens northeast mountains for a widespread freeze. Therefore, keep the area dry despite the dry cold front. This front will bring in a reinforcing shot of colder air, -16C at 850mb, along with gusty winds taking hold, particularly across the higher terrain.
1055 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Based on latest sfc analysis and regional 88D imagery, our cold front has now exited lower Acadiana and will soon depart the ern coastal waters.
224 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Big closed low up over the Great lakes region with a moderate northwest flow pattern wrapping all the way back into northeast Colorado. Further west towards the Front Range less winds with a weak Longmont anticyclone in place and less clouds. For Saturday, high pressure ridge builds into the region with a drier and more subsident airmass. Temperatures only slightly warmer with coldest temperatures over the far northeast plains under a stronger temperature gradient from the Great Lakes low. Upper level ridging remains persistent over the Great Plains through the weekend.
The cold air sticks around through the weekend with cold advection continuing as strong Canadian high pressure moves across the region, & deep troughing aloft remains over the Great Lakes.
Another mid level disturbance will be tracking over the area tonight along with a secondary boundary or surge in high pressure sliding across.
Mostly cloudy skies on Saturday complete with a reinforcing push of chilly surface ridging should make for very similar highs to today.
Otherwise, mostly sunny conditions today as an upper level ridge remains situated over the area. Daytime high temperatures will be trending up and should be within a degree or two of normal in the lower valleys over the weekend.
Mid morning surface analysis had a cold front just southeast of a Columbus to Brookhaven line. Temperatures ahead of the cold front were running in the lower 60s but behind the cold front temperatures were getting knocked into the upper 40s. The cold front will continue to push southeast this morning and be southeast of our CWA before noon. Local radar showed precipitation ahead and behind the cold front all the way back across the delta. /22/ Today through Saturday: A cold front is currently pushing across the area this morning, with a convective line now extending from near Brookhaven to Forest and a more broken line northeastward to De Kalb. It will turn much cooler tonight, but with the mid/upper trough lagging back to our west, clouds will be slow to depart.
1025 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (Issued 1025 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023) As low pressure over western Ontario this morning continues to move northeast, a drier air mass is expected to move into the area. Flurries will again be possible for a time tomorrow as the upper trough swings through. Breezy west to northwest winds behind a cold front will continue to usher in colder temps today, with highs likely staying below freezing most places. Could see flurries for a time tomorrow as the upper trough swings through.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) Upper low located along the MT/MN/Canadian border this morning with a broad trough extending south across the plains and a ridge extending north across the Western US. This low will wobble east across the Great Lakes today and tonight passing off to the NE Saturday. Saturday will not be any warmer than today which is around 20 degrees below normal. and Pecos counties where 1 to 3 inches of snow expected with locally higher amounts for the higher elevations.
144 PM PDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Overall dry conditions are in store through Saturday, with warmer temperatures.
An upper trough swinging through the Great Lakes Region will swing a lobe of vorticity through the region later tonight, acting to increase cloud cover and bring scattered snow flurries to areas tonight into Saturday.
207 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Relatively dry and warm high pressure will be over the Northern Rockies through this weekend. Despite the increased daytime warmth anticipated, mostly cloudless skies will allow overnight temperatures to cool well below freezing and patchy valley fog to develop each morning.
A tight post-frontal pressure gradient remains over the region this morning in wake of the cold fropa which has shifted into the NW Gulf into SE LA, and while some gusts may reach/exceed 30 mph, this should be brief with the pressure gradient gradually relaxing through the afternoon as sfc ridging continues to build S into the Srn Plains. As a result, min temps will be on either side of freezing, and will address this in the afternoon discussion.
Tonight and Saturday High pressure continues to exert its influence over eastern Idaho.
241 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Cooler than normal weather sticks around through the weekend, with wind chills overnight expected to be near or below zero north of I- 72 with values in the single digits south of there. Clearing has just about made its way to the IL/IN state line just after 2 pm as surface ridging continues to nose further eastward. A 500 mb upper trough will swing through the Great Lakes Region later today, pushing a lobe of vorticity through central IL tonight.
We will continue to see a nice afternoon across the area with mostly sunny skies and some breezy conditions due to a cold front heading our way.
Clouds over the area are helping to keep the western Panhandles cooler than the east. High pressure will shift further southeast and allow winds to turn northeasterly. Those areas that keep clouds socked in should remain slightly warmer in the 20s while any spots that have even small breaks in clouds could see drops into the teens.
438 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Light rain behind a cold front persists in southeast Kentucky late this afternoon, but will be exiting to the east and southeast as the cold front continues to pull away. Under an unusually strong late season upper trough, another cold front will move through from the northwest on Saturday.
229 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Quiet weather will continue through this weekend as high pressure maintains control over the area. All of this pleasant weather is brought to us by means of upper level ridging, which has settled over our area and will remain with us through the upcoming weekend.
937 AM PDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Overall dry conditions are in store through Saturday, with warmer temperatures.
1131 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023 A crossing frontal passage tonight will result in much cooler conditions over the weekend as an upper level low treks across the Great Lakes.
High pressure will bring dry and mild conditions through Saturday.
1219 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (Today through Saturday) Sharp cold front is forecast to move through Deep South Texas in the next few hours which is 1 to 2 hours faster than the previous forecast. NBM is a bit cooler through the short term period than the previous forecast. Waves are forecast to reach 5 to 8 feet in the surf zone today which will make for dangerous swimming conditions when coupled with the High Risk of rip currents.
Changes were mostly nil as the region remains under high pressure this morning, keeping us incredibly quiet.