Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today) A weak cold front, currently located near I-44, is making its way southward through eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early this morning, with the main impact being ushering lower dew points into the region.
1252 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (This evening through Sunday) As of 2 PM, an outflow boundary/cold front had moved south to a line roughly from Mertzon to San Angelo to San Saba, and was sparking showers and thunderstorms across the Concho Valley, including San Angelo. On Sunday, the overall set-up will not change that much, with weak relative troughing over the area, plentiful moisture available, and various residual boundaries in the area, another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, especially for the southern half of the area.
1219 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (The rest of tonight) A weak cold front will enter northeast Oklahoma shortly and will continue moving southeast overnight. Although it will not be significantly cooler behind the front, drier air will filter into northeast Oklahoma, keeping heat indices in check.
Cooler and less humid with mostly dry weather across the area today.
343 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 A weak upper level disturbance in northwesterly mid level flow will approach the high plains today. Expect highs around 90 to the lower 90s.
318 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Temperatures will be a little cooler today with highs topping out in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Showers and storms will develop by this afternoon ahead of a southeastward moving cold front, bringing brief periods of heavy rainfall and possibly some gusty winds. Surface analysis early this morning depicts an area of low pressure centered over west-central IL. A warm front extends northeast from there toward Lake Michigan with a stationary/cold front southwest of it into central MO.
Decent solar insolation should allow temperatures to reach the lower 90s across the island chain yet again today. From synopsis, Atlantic ridging to our north will maintain light to gentle breezes across the Keys through the beginning of this week.
619 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (Today through Monday afternoon) The upper-level ridge remains centered over the southwestern US Sunday into Monday.
Some of the latest model guidance is showing a wave of low pressure developing and traveling slowly along this boundary and across the region this evening through into Monday morning. Some of the higher res model guidance is starting to indicate a corridor of heavy rainfall of 3+ inches along this boundary, however, the location of where this heavier axis of rain falls is still uncertain. An elongated positively tilted trough will be the main feature driving the weather pattern for the period.
650 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (Today and tonight) Weak mid-level troughing will exist through tonight over Oklahoma and northern Texas. Additionally, a weak cold front is expected to continue to move slowly into southeastern Oklahoma by afternoon. With the passage of the upper trough late tonight, weak northwest flow may bring showers/storms into western Oklahoma that generate earlier over northeastern New Mexico.
Not much change in the overall Synoptic pattern today as upper ridging remains in place to the west. Heights are expected to be slightly higher than yesterday resulting in warmer temperatures at the surface and decreased rain chances. On Monday and upper trough axis will be moving and lifting north of the region.
* Confidence is increasing for a cold front to bring a fairly widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms late Independence Day afternoon and evening. expect temperatures to climb across the region as a positively tilted upper level ridge extends across the plains with the next upper level wave passing well to our north during the evening through overnight hours. but confidence of this is on the lower side and not supported by all the model data.
452 AM MDT Sun Jul 2 2023 07z surface analysis had low over southern SK with trough into eastern WY. Disposition of Canadian upper low main forecast concern. This feature will push cold front into the CWA late tonight. Monday, upper low moves into central Canada with trough axis into the northern Rockies/plains.
638 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) An upper trough over the Midwest extends into the Midsouth with an upper ridge over the west coast. The upper trough moves through the area today and tonight. The trough will weaken over the area Monday. As a cold front moves into the state, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon.
416 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 A powerful high pressure ridge that influenced excessive heat over the region is beginning to flatten out as an upper trough pushes into the ArkLaMiss region. Additionally, the approaching trough is expected to increase southerly flow and enable convection across the CWA. This, in part, will assist in capping dewpoints to the lower to middle 70s, which will lead to "cooler" (haha) conditions. The potential for showers and storms will exist in the northwest portions of the CWA this morning as the trough approaches from the northwest, however severe weather is not expected this morning. Overnight lows are expected to dip into the lower to middle 70s.
555 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (Today) A weak cold front, currently located near I-44, is making its way southward through eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early this morning, with the main impact being ushering lower dew points into the region.
515 AM MDT Sun Jul 2 2023 It's the epic struggle between ridge and trough, with Wyoming in the balance. The trough continues to drift east across the Canadian Prairies, while the ridge spins over the Desert Southwest, providing generally zonal flow across Wyoming. With the ridge just slightly closer, a somewhat more stable atmosphere will be the more dominant feature today, with resulting warmer temperatures mostly in the 80s, with a smattering of 90s in the Bighorn basin. With that much daytime heating and lack of stronger ridging, any embedded impulses may bring convection, and there are hints of this this evening across far northern WY. Monday will be the beginning of another pattern transition, as the trough buckles southward, bringing along a cold front into northern WY.
708 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Scattered thunderstorms will return to the Mid-South by late this morning as a cold front slowly moves toward the region.
634 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (Today through Monday) A mid to upper level trough extends from the central plains to west Texas this morning. The upper trough has split the subtropical ridge in two over Texas. This split will remain as the trough moves slowly to the east during the short term period. This weakening of the upper ridge will allow convection to develop today over the northern and eastern parts of the area. As the upper trough moves farther to the east, rain chances will diminish.
High pressure will bring excessive heat with near record highs for the next several days. Strong high pressure aloft will continue to build into Arizona bringing near record heat and dry conditions. Moisture has been circulating around the eastern periphery of the high, extending about as far west as the AZ/NM line.
A dry cold front drops south from Canada this morning, resulting in noticeably cooler temperatures across the plains today.
S/W ridging will exist across the forecast area today, but a very warm airmass will spread north into the region this afternoon/evening. Later tnt should be mainly dry but then late tnt and on Monday a sfc front will slide into the state, as an upper trof advects ESE toward the northern tier states. The highest coverage of rain may occur mid-week as a decent looking wave moves over the region in a post-frontal airmass. Monday will probably be a bit cooler with front in the area and it's likely there'll be more cloudiness.
618 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (Today through Monday) Water vapor imagery this morning shows the expected upper-level trough digging into southern Iowa and northern Missouri. This trough will be tracking eastward as the day progresses over the Ohio River Valley, and as it does so, flow aloft over Middle TN will be strengthening, providing ample wind shear of 30 to 40 knots this afternoon. Best chances for severe weather look to be along and north of I-40 due to closer proximity to the upper- level trough, and as such, the new SPC Day 1 Outlook introduces an enhanced risk over this area with a slight risk over the south. The aforementioned upper-level trough ejects into the northeast late tonight, leaving behind zonal flow over Middle TN with the high pressure centered over the Gulf.
Temperatures slightly warmer today (2-4 degrees of warming) as 700mb temperatures climb to around +14c over the Front Range. The later periods start out dry and pretty warm for Monday, then moisture returns as well as cooler temperatures for the rest of the week.
Showers and thunderstorms will initially form over the higher terrain before pushing east.
903 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023 High pressure ridge axis is starting to settle a bit south.
309 AM MDT Sun Jul 2 2023 It's the epic struggle between ridge and trough, with Wyoming in the balance. The trough continues to drift east across the Canadian Prairies, while the ridge spins over the Desert Southwest, providing generally zonal flow across Wyoming. With the ridge just slightly closer, a somewhat more stable atmosphere will be the more dominant feature today, with resulting warmer temperatures mostly in the 80s, with a smattering of 90s in the Bighorn basin. With that much daytime heating and lack of stronger ridging, any embedded impulses may bring convection, and there are hints of this this evening across far northern WY. Monday will be the beginning of another pattern transition, as the trough buckles southward, bringing along a cold front into northern WY.
639 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (Today and tonight) Weak troughing aloft will reside over the area again today, with weak disturbances providing another opportunity for showers and a thunderstorms once again. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal again today, with highs mainly in the lower 90s, although some upper 80s will be possible. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower 70s.
A weak upper level disturbance in northwesterly mid level flow will approach the high plains today. Expect highs around 90 to the lower 90s.
Later this afternoon, forecast soundings and the HREF ensemble mean show MUCAPES reaching 1500-2000 J/kg, but it's still unclear where the low level forcing will be located for storms to develop. Several of the CAMs suggest storms will re- develop along and east of the Blue Ridge with models hinting at weak low level convergence in this area. A trough will move through the OH Valley Monday, bringing with it a weak cold front. Temperatures will be a touch above normal during this period, with highs mostly in the 80s west of the Blue Ridge, and in the low 90s east.
Current thinking is that this activity will fill in from Darlington to MKE and then pivot southeast with time during the post dawn hours As low pressure spins to our south this morning, there'll be a subtle push of flow from the northeast, which will push a weak boundary inland and will allow for moisture to pool in southwest WI. Highs will be in the 80s today away from the lakeshore, while northeast winds will keep lakeshore locales cooler. Monday, synoptic flow will come back around to westerly, and sfc winds may pin the lake breeze closer to the lakeshore long enough for all of southern WI to make a run at the upper 80s to the low 90s for highs.
A dry cold front will push through the area this afternoon with isolated pop up showers and thunderstorms possible ahead of the front. As opposed to yesterday where the highest sustained winds stayed to the north and south of Fort Peck Lake, today's highest winds look to be more broad-brushed across the entire CWA. The good news is the highest sustained winds look to retreat north for tomorrow.
630 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 A powerful high pressure ridge that influenced excessive heat over the region is beginning to flatten out as an upper trough pushes into the ArkLaMiss region. Additionally, the approaching trough is expected to increase southerly flow and enable convection across the CWA. This, in part, will assist in capping dewpoints to the lower to middle 70s, which will lead to "cooler" (haha) conditions. The potential for showers and storms will exist in the northwest portions of the CWA this morning as the trough approaches from the northwest, however severe weather is not expected this morning. Overnight lows are expected to dip into the lower to middle 70s.
High pressure will build over Arizona, bringing the hottest temperatures of the year through early this week, along with dry weather and locally breezy afternoon winds. As is typical for this time of year, the weather pattern is dominated by subtropical high pressure building over the Southwest. Expect to see upper 80s/low 90s in the mountains with triple digit heat from 100-115 for the lowest valleys today through much of the week ahead.
The heat wave is peaking, with inland valley temperatures once again rising into the low 100s.
622 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Near normal temperatures are expected today and Monday with the region on the backside of an upper trough leaving a temporary weakness in the ridge.
1212 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2023 The upper level trough to the north into Canada continues to extend a trough south to the Montana state line with any impacts north of the CWA today for the most part. Monday will see the trough deepen with increased divergence aloft as it pushes closer to the CWA as the associated cold front nears as well. Most of the activity looks to be east of the Divide ahead of the sheared mid level trough.
(This evening through Monday night) Tonight through Monday night, the upper level ridge starts to break down over the area and a boundary sets up. For tomorrow, not expecting severe weather given the low shear and lack of forcing. Thanks to the increased rain chances for tomorrow and greater chance of cloud cover too, this should finally keep the heat at bay! Conditions tomorrow are finally going to be trending down with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s with heat index values between 100 and 105 expected for the most part across the area.
200 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Temperatures will be on a downward trend early this week as cooler air pushes in from Canada.
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery is detecting partly cloudy skies across the forecast area, with harmless streamers propagating northward off the Lower and Middle Keys. Available surface observations are reporting temperatures in the lower 90s. The Florida Keys will remain straddled between an expansive area of high pressure over the western Atlantic and another in the vicinity of Texas.
149 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Latest sfc analysis shows sfc trof has cleared all but far sern part of the CWA, with some agitated CU developing over the Black Hills. Sfc winds across the sern part of the CWA are beginning to turn more SW in direction in response to approaching sfc trof.
Be smart around area waterways! Tonight and Monday a weak trough will move over the area.
Afternoon temperatures will remain hot, mainly from the lower 90s across east coast metro areas to the mid 90s across interior portions of SW Florida.
(Tonight through Monday night) A weakness aloft will remain over the region through the short-term, splitting the upper level ridge over the southwest U. and sub- tropical ridge over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and Florida. During the remainder of the afternoon through sunset development of stray to isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible where this higher moisture pool is located through northern and southeastern areas of the CWA. The higher pool of 1. High temperatures tomorrow are forecast in the low 90s across the Hill Country and mid to upper 90s for most other locations.
1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Near normal temperatures are expected today and Monday with the region on the backside of an upper trough leaving a temporary weakness in the ridge.
With this region of broad "troughiness" overhead, this will begin to allow diurnal convective patterns (daily sea breeze) to begin to get more active this week. With high pressure over the eastern Gulf providing a moderate onshore flow, dew points will be high enough for heat indices to reach the 105- 110F range again tomorrow, with some isolated brief periods of 111F+ during the afternoon.
High pressure will bring excessive heat with near record highs for the next several days. The 12z 500 mb chart placed the upper high over central CA with a upper level trof across the middle part of CONUS. Satellite imagery earlier this morning showed an area of mid to upper level cloud moving down the eastern flank of the upper high.
The weak MCV left over from this is foreast open and be absorbed back into a weak mid and upper level trough axis. (Today through Monday) A mid to upper level trough extends from the central plains to west Texas this morning. The upper trough has split the subtropical ridge in two over Texas. This split will remain as the trough moves slowly to the east during the short term period. This weakening of the upper ridge will allow convection to develop today over the northern and eastern parts of the area. As the upper trough moves farther to the east, rain chances will diminish.
No sooner than the lid was lifted as the upper-level ridge shifted SE, strong to marginally severe thunderstorms have filled the void as a broad upper-level trough pivots east across the Mid/Lower MS Valley. Aside from the ongoing convection in our northern zones, heat does continue to be a big concern farther south with a Heat Advisory still in effect over most of our southern and eastern zones through 8 PM this evening as high temperatures have soared back into the low to mid 90s once again despite increasing cloud cover. Similar to this evening, expect convection to linger beyond sunset before a gradual downward trend after midnight with overnight lows dropping back into the lower to mid 70s.
1256 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Temperatures will be a little cooler today with highs reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s over central IL, with mid 80s southeast of I-70 where more sunshine will occur today. Showers and a few thunderstorms over the IL river valley late this morning, will develop further southeast across the rest of IL during this afternoon ahead of a southeastward moving cold front.
1034 AM MDT Sun Jul 2 2023 15z sfc analysis shows sfc trof has just about exited ern cwa, with west/nw sfc winds and clearing skies in its wake. Dwpt values across the sern part of the cwa cont to climb ahead of approaching trof/500hpa wave. 07z surface analysis had low over southern SK with trough into eastern WY. Disposition of Canadian upper low main forecast concern. This feature will push cold front into the CWA late tonight. Monday, upper low moves into central Canada with trough axis into the northern Rockies/plains.
High pressure will build over Arizona, bringing the hottest temperatures of the year through early this week, along with dry weather and locally breezy afternoon winds. While it remains fairly dry across the region, we may start to see some additional moisture creep into the area, mainly towards the White Mountain region, where they will be on the eastern side of the building high pressure. As is typical for this time of year, the weather pattern is dominated by subtropical high pressure building over the Southwest. Expect to see upper 80s/low 90s in the mountains with triple digit heat from 100-115 for the lowest valleys today through much of the week ahead.
1228 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (The rest of today) A weak frontal boundary associated with the passing of the main mid level trough axis continues to drop southeastward this morning across the region. Any significant lift associated with the upper trough will stay mostly north and east of the forecast area today, limiting storm chances late this morning and into the afternoon.
Meanwhile, the areas out in OH are beginning to see cloud cover break up and clear out behind the trough that just moved from the southwest into the northeast counties of the forecast area.
However, with the low tracking to the ENE, I do expect some heavy rain to skirt the aformentioned part of the forecast area. Heavy rain tapers off from west to east through tonight as the low slowly exits.
A cold front associated with an upper low cutting across central Canada will drop into the area this evening, bringing increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. Expect thunderstorms to form over the higher terrain, spreading to the east and northeast into the overnight hours.
208 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023 A cold front will move through our area Monday bringing scattered thunderstorms, some containing heavy rain and damaging winds.
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight) Cold front has pushed into southeast Oklahoma, extending into west-central Arkansas, currently near a Talihina, Fort Smith line. Still the potential for a few isolated showers/thunderstorms to develop across far southeast Oklahoma in the higher terrain, however overall coverage will likely remain limited at best.
Mid and deep-layer shear are expected to increase slightly as a cold front approaches from the west; however, progression thus far has been very slow, with the front losing strength as is pushes east. The window of opportunity for severe looks to be greatest during the evening, with upscale growth pushing into southeastern North Dakota and west-central Minnesota along a stalled cold front.
Temperatures in the lower to middle 80s across these areas with dewpoints in the lower 70s is allowing MUCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg already. The upper trough and cold front will work with the instability building across central Indiana to produce numerous showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms. However, with the upper trough and cold front in the area, some rainfall will be around. With the front and rain, low temperatures will be cooler than last night's, with lows in the middle to upper 60s expected. The upper trough will still have some influence across the area on Monday, especially east. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s.
1130 AM MDT Sun Jul 2 2023 It's the epic struggle between ridge and trough, with Wyoming in the balance. The trough continues to drift east across the Canadian Prairies, while the ridge spins over the Desert Southwest, providing generally zonal flow across Wyoming. With the ridge just slightly closer, a somewhat more stable atmosphere will be the more dominant feature today, with resulting warmer temperatures mostly in the 80s, with a smattering of 90s in the Bighorn basin. With that much daytime heating and lack of stronger ridging, any embedded impulses may bring convection, and there are hints of this this evening across far northern WY. Monday will be the beginning of another pattern transition, as the trough buckles southward, bringing along a cold front into northern WY.
1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (Today and tonight) Weak mid-level troughing will exist through tonight over Oklahoma and northern Texas. Additionally, a weak cold front is expected to continue to move slowly into southeastern Oklahoma by afternoon. With the passage of the upper trough late tonight, weak northwest flow may bring showers/storms into western Oklahoma that generate earlier over northeastern New Mexico.
938 AM MDT Sun Jul 2 2023 A dry cold front drops south from Canada this morning, resulting in noticeably cooler temperatures across the plains today.
1220 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (Today and tonight) Weak troughing aloft will reside over the area again today, with weak disturbances providing another opportunity for showers and a thunderstorms once again. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal again today, with highs mainly in the lower 90s, although some upper 80s will be possible. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower 70s.