Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
627 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain returns Monday with crossing low pressure.
655 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 High pressure will be in place across much of the region for today.
639 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 (Today through Monday) Latest surface analysis indicates a warm front pushing northward across Deep South Texas early this morning. Highs today will range from the 70s at the beaches, the 80s near the coast and the low to mid 90s inland. Tonight will be mild with clouds increase and lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
No major updates this morning as drier air and high pressure combine to limit cloud cover. Fog will dissipate after sunrise later this morning High pressure continues to be locked in across South Florida in the short term. A cold front moving across the northeast will stall well north of the region with all precip remaining to the north. Warm temperatures will continue with maximum temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and reaching into the lower 90s over the interior. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s inland to the lower to mid 70s along the coasts.
1226 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 A deep low pressure system lifting northeast into Quebec today will keep a west to northwest flow of dry air over the region with tapering winds. As the low across Quebec moves northeastward through the day, expect winds to weaken from west to east as high pressure builds in. Winds become northerly overnight and drop to almost nothing with high pressure overhead. A fast moving and relatively compact area of low pressure will impact the region Monday and the first half of Monday night. Kept temperatures on the cooler side as of this forecast, ranging from the mid 40s in the north to mid 50s in the Lower Susquehanna. Precipitation tapers off Monday night as temperatures settle a few degrees cooler compared to tonight.
1238 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 (Today through Monday) Latest surface analysis indicates a warm front pushing northward across Deep South Texas early this morning. Highs today will range from the 70s at the beaches, the 80s near the coast and the low to mid 90s inland. Tonight will be mild with clouds increase and lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) Mainly quiet conditions ongoing across the state early this Sun morning with high pressure remaining over the region. A weak cold front was slowing over SWRN MO into NERN OK. one along/behind the cold front across NRN AR. Cooler air will settle across the area behind the front tonight into Mon.
(This evening through Monday Night) Some lingering showers (maybe an isolated thunderstorm or two?) are anticipated early this evening near and along a weak convergence boundary and slowly southward sagging cold front. Inland highs will be in the low to mid 80s. The rain chances will actually increase heading on into the evening and especially the overnight hours Monday night with showers and thunderstorms forming along and ahead of the next cold front. Highest rainfall amounts look like they might end up setting up generally along the I-10 corridor with the higher numbers the further east you go toward the TX-LA border.
237 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2023 A closed low pressure circulation responsible for widespread snowfall across north central Idaho and west central/southwest Montana today is anticipated to move south and east of the Northern Rockies tonight. Despite the organization and strength of some of these snow showers, the recent increase in low level winds and above freezing temperatures will thwart most snow accumulation below 4500 feet. Weak high pressure will dry out much of the Northern Rockies on Monday, however a weak wave east of the Continental Divide will create occasional mountain snow showers along the Divide throughout the day.
As a cold front sinks into the northern zones Monday, convection increases in coverage Monday morning 27. the first is a boundary over central AL, which will be lifting northward as a warm front and the second is a cold front sinking southeast through the Lower MS Valley.
Broad low level warm advective pcpn sweeps across the region Thu in both models as a sfc warm front lifts north. Instability on the increase ahead of the storm's attendant cold front, and could have some rumbles of thunder - especially in the south.
The trough is expected to amplify some overnight into Monday as it moves across central Kansas. Global models have trended more amplified with this trough so rain chances may be a bit higher than previously expected.
1221 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 (Today and tonight) As small but intense upper trough will exit Kansas and move toward the mid-Mississippi Valley today, reinforcing lower level ridge of high pressure and northerly winds over the region. Temperatures only slightly cooler most locations.
1241 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 (Today and tonight) With weak troughing to near zonal flow in the upper levels, the short-term forecast looks to remain rather benign. A weak cold frontal boundary is beginning to push into the Red River region as of 130 AM. Winds behind the front will shift to a more northerly direction, helping to keep temperatures north of the boundary a little cooler in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The boundary is expected to lift north through the afternoon as increased insolation from mostly clear skies overhead and daytime heating begin to push the cooler airmass back. As the sun sets and diurnal heating is lost, the cooler airmass will be able to continue its trek south through the rest of the CWA, shifting winds to a more north/northeasterly direction.
1233 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front located to our northeast will move southwest through the forecast area this morning with model guidance indicating this front will push through the entire forecast area by mid-morning. Overall, the NBM looks to have a good handle on how far east the front pulls back and is in line with the high-res guidance.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of low pressure over central IL with a warm front extended to the east. High pressure was situated over the northern Plains.
250 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 A front will stall to our south today, allowing high pressure to move into the southern Appalachians.
The 12z sounding at KEY this morning sampled a series of thermal inversions, one based at around 965 mb, and another at around 775 mb, indicative of ridging and synopitic-scale subsidence. Should this feature survive its northward trek, there is at least a slight chance for a light shower to quickly pass through a few island communities in the Lower and Middle Keys it the early morning hours. High pressure over the west-central Atlantic will continue to slide eastward and weaken this week, as a frontal boundary will push towards the Florida Peninsula and essentially wash out as it reaches south-central Florida.
(This evening through Monday) This afternoon, a weak cold front is just south of San Angelo. A mid level trough will be to our northwest on Monday. Models are showing some capping in the low to mid levels, but if the cap erodes enough or parcels are lifted above the cap, we could see a few thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.
1226 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Another low pressure system will maintain accumulating snow over Southwest and portions of Central Montana though tonight.
(Rest of today through Monday) High pressure holds over the area as a frontal boundary retreats northward away from Florida today. Drier air will remain along with the high pressure which will discourage convection. Warm temperatures will continue with maximum temperatures reaching from the upper 80s to lower 90s in the afternoons and minimum temperatures ranging from the mid 60s inland to the lower to mid 70s along the coasts.
Current surface map places high pressure across the Northern Plains with stationary front along the northern Rockies into the central plains. This low tracks across Wyoming today.
Otherwise, low clouds are expected to develop for most locations and lows will be warmer, bottoming out in the 50s and 60s. The global models are a bit more aggressive than some of the high-res models, with the FV3 the outlier of the CAMs showing some robust convection.
Upstream coverage of clouds not great, but there is some northwest into southeastern Saskatchewan all ahead and near a weak 500 mb short wave moving southeast associated with a surface cold front/north wind shift. Trees will be a bit warmer.
A fairly static pattern is in place for the next few days as broad ridging remains in place aloft.
242 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Key Points: - Cooler and cloudy today.
259 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 High pressure will retreat toward New England through Monday. A wave of low pressure will develop over the Tennessee River Valley and pass over or just south of the Mid-Atlantic during this time.
1254 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain returns Monday with crossing low pressure.
1213 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 High pressure remains parked overhead this afternoon with light wind and plenty of sunshine.
343 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 High pressure will keep conditions dry through tonight.
(Monday through Sunday) Upper trough digging SE across the NRN CONUS will push the front through the rest of the area as high pressure is reinforced somewhat across the area.
117 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Water vapor shows western CONUS trof with upper low taking shape over WY. Upper low will slowly weaken as it shifts east into the Northern/Central Plains on Monday.
1239 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 (Today through Monday Night) After a cool/dry start to the day, will be expecting changes as the day progresses with the development/passage of a warm front at/near the coast. With the rains and abundant clouds, high temperatures on Mon should remain in the lower and mid 70s.
Tonight, the biggest concern freezing fog will be primarily concentrated along the North Dakota border and locations in the Yellowstone River Valley and toward Wibaux County.
145 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Dry weather continues through this evening with departing high pressure. Rain returns Monday with crossing low pressure. High pressure is providing a sunny sky, with high temperatures expected to be around 5 degrees above normal. Rain during the daylight hours may mix with or change to snow as the system departs Monday night as cooler air filters in, but no significant accumulation is forecast.
1102 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 A front will stall to our south today, allowing high pressure to move into the southern Appalachians. Low pressure will bring a chance of showers to the area Monday.
Rainfall amounts should remain below 1/2 inch, and this activity should move east of the area by sunrise as a cold front pushes through.
147 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Weak high pressure to offer a dry weather today.
539 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 A front will stall to our south today, allowing high pressure to move into the southern Appalachians.
The deep mean-layer ridge centered to our south over the Western Caribbean supports a low-level ridge over the extreme western North Atlantic. Temperatures are in the upper 70s with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
Gusty winds, especially from Mountain Home through the Western Magic Valley will diminish after midnight as the low pressure system exits the state. Satellite shows a well defined closed low off the Western Canadian coast which will continue to move south along the coast on Monday. This will all for dry and warmer conditions on Monday.
A weak upper level disturbance will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. This will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of North Mississippi and West Tennessee near the Tennessee River this evening, then come to an end overnight as high pressure builds back in across the region.
Winds will diminish and veer to northerly and then southeasterly by daybreak at high pressure crosses through the area. A fast moving and relatively compact area of low pressure will impact the region Monday and the first half of Monday night. Kept temperatures on the cooler side as of this forecast, ranging from the mid 40s in the north to mid 50s in the Lower Susquehanna. Precipitation tapers off Monday night as temperatures settle a few degrees cooler compared to tonight.
An upper level trough will continue to push through the region through the day today.
Tennessee is currently sandwiched between 2 disturbances; a cold front to the north and a more potent front to the south. However, obs show that those same southern counties are moistening up, so light rain is possible overnight as that southern low pressure system continues to track northeast. Light rain may also dip down into the northern counties from the cold front to the north. Winds will pick up overnight as that northern cold front lifts northeast.
Persistent pattern to continue locally with dry air aloft as seen in water vapor imagery while the W Atlantic high pressure ridge axis at the surface has slid slightly Nward since yesterday. Stalling the seabreeze convergence showers that are nearly stationary over and west of the Lake Wales Ridge area providing some needed rainfall to a few areas. A fairly static pattern is in place for the next few days as broad ridging remains in place aloft.
Winter storm warnings/advisories will expire at midnight with accumulating snowfall ending, however roads will remain icy across parts of southwest MT as wet/slushy surfaces are re-freezing this evening. An upper level trough will continue to push through the region through the day today.
354 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Water vapor shows western CONUS trof with upper low taking shape over WY. Upper low will slowly weaken as it shifts east into the Northern/Central Plains on Monday.
617 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 (This evening through Monday Night) Some lingering showers (maybe an isolated thunderstorm or two?) are anticipated early this evening near and along a weak convergence boundary and slowly southward sagging cold front. Inland highs will be in the low to mid 80s. The rain chances will actually increase heading on into the evening and especially the overnight hours Monday night with showers and thunderstorms forming along and ahead of the next cold front. Highest rainfall amounts look like they might end up setting up generally along the I-10 corridor with the higher numbers the further east you go toward the TX-LA border.
640 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Dry weather continues through this evening with departing high pressure. Rain returns Monday with crossing low pressure. Cloudiness coming up the Ohio Valley in advance of trough now over Chicago area will spread into forecast area later tonight. Rain during the daylight hours may mix with or change to snow as the system departs Monday night as cooler air filters in, but no significant accumulation is forecast.
19Z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure exiting the area to the northeast. This high has been responsible for the beautiful day today replete with sunshine, light winds, and some low RH this afternoon.
610 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 (This evening through Monday) This afternoon, a weak cold front is just south of San Angelo. A mid level trough will be to our northwest on Monday. Models are showing some capping in the low to mid levels, but if the cap erodes enough or parcels are lifted above the cap, we could see a few thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.
654 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 A weak upper level disturbance will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. This will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of North Mississippi and West Tennessee near the Tennessee River this evening, then come to an end overnight as high pressure builds back in across the region.
844 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 High pressure will retreat toward New England through Monday. A wave of low pressure will develop over the Tennessee River Valley and pass over or just south of the Mid-Atlantic during this time.
Afternoon highs will be in the low 90s west of I-95, and upper 80s to near 90 degrees east of I-95 as the ECSB forms and pushes onshore late in the afternoon.
759 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Weak high pressure to offer dry weather into this evening.
Skies clearing quickly in the wake of this feature, while cold front has basically moved southeast of the area. (Monday through Sunday) Upper trough digging SE across the NRN CONUS will push the front through the rest of the area as high pressure is reinforced somewhat across the area.
Skies clear this afternoon as drier air moves in behind the cold front.
113 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Dry weather continues through this evening with departing high pressure. Rain returns Monday with crossing low pressure. Cloudiness coming up the Ohio Valley in advance of trough now over Chicago area will spread into forecast area later tonight. Rain during the daylight hours may mix with or change to snow as the system departs Monday night as cooler air filters in, but no significant accumulation is forecast. This system will be even less impressive in terms of moisture, with PWATs below a half-inch and Great Lakes high pressure helping to provide a dry push. Thus, low PoPs are indicated, although these will be slightly higher in the ridge zones with modest upslope influence.
850 mb flow will remain out of the south and is expected to overrun this cooler airmass. Have also decreased temperatures slightly from guidance as hi-res data is showing more pronounced cloud cover across much of the region which would keep daytime highs on the lower side. This will push a secondary cold front through the area overnight and into the early morning hours Tuesday. Gusty north to northeast winds behind the front will advect a much cooler air mass into the area.
Winds have diminished to calm or light northerly throughout, and will become southeasterly by daybreak as high pressure crosses through the area. A fast moving and relatively compact area of low pressure will impact the region Monday and the first half of Monday night. Kept temperatures on the cooler side as of this forecast, ranging from the mid 40s in the north to mid 50s in the Lower Susquehanna. Precipitation tapers off Monday night as temperatures settle a few degrees cooler compared to tonight.
However, overnight lows could reach freezing, especially across NE Georgia after the front moves through.
Despite a slightly cooler air mass, max temps today should be pretty similar to yesterday as there should be plenty of sunshine at least in the morning hours. Hedging closer to the bias-corrected NH Canadian, look for highs in the lower to mid 40s interior west and south central and in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere. There should be enough moisture through the midlevels to support some light snow showers along the cold front, though accumulations prior to noon should still remain below an inch. However, behind the cold front, 850mb temperatures plummet from around -10 C well into the negative teens C, supporting a period of Werly to NWerly lake effect bands.
High pressure then dries the area out through the midweek period in addition to bringing more seasonable temperatures. Although increasing low-level flow/warm advection is expected overnight we still think the severe risk will remain low and mainly confined to southern portions of the forecast area near the Lowcountry where the greatest, albeit minimal, instability should be found.
Meanwhile a more substantial cold front will move through the area during the morning and then slide into the southeast by mid-afternoon.
Cooler air will advect in and much of the Permian Basin settles into the mid to upper 30s with southeast New Mexico dipping into the upper 20s to low 30s. This front will gradually push southward and much of the forecast area will be much cooler during the day on Tuesday.
131 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023 A cold front continues to move farther east into the area bringing cooler and drier air, but showers will linger out in front of it south of US-24 this morning.
and Tuesday Early this morning: Split flow continues to be present across North America consisting of a longwave trough over central Canada, a trough over the Rockies, and sub-tropical ridging over Florida. Otherwise, clear skies prevail across Wisconsin though cirrus is spreading east into the northern Mississippi Valley ahead of the trough over the Rockies. Then a cold front will move into northwest WI on Tuesday afternoon. Diurnal convective clouds will likely pop by late morning and widespread cloudiness will arrive by late in the afternoon ahead of a cold front. Low temps tonight will be a little warmer with more in the way of cloud cover.
400 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Today through tonight: Strong westerlies across the southern CONUS continue to support a disturbed weather pattern for the forecast area as we near the end of March, but for the short term at least, we're expecting to see a reprieve over most of the area as much drier air moves in following a weak cold front passage. The exception will be over the lower Pine Belt region including Hattiesburg where a stalling front may be close enough in proximity to support continued isolated shower and thunderstorms. Late tonight, an approaching minor perturbation will initiate deep convective development near the front, and strong deep layer shear combined with fairly steep mid level lapse rates will support organized storms that may impact locations mainly south of the Highway 84 corridor prior to daybreak Tuesday.
325 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Areas of rain are likely today with crossing low pressure.
1232 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler than normal temperatures persist through Tuesday with light rain possible Monday night into Tuesday morning.
This will lower dew points into the 40s to around 50 this afternoon, but high temperatures will still reach the lower 70s for most areas.
(Today and tonight) A high amplitude s/wv trough will move from the central Rockies into the central Plains today. As cold temperatures aloft approach late in the day, in combination with southward progression of surface cold front, scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm may skirt far northern Oklahoma. For tonight, with the passage of the cold front, northerly winds will be fairly brisk. Temperatures will not be drastically colder behind the front, but with the northerly wind, wind chill values late tonight and on Tuesday morning will range from the teens across northern Oklahoma, to the lower/mid 30s across southeast Oklahoma.
Upstream coverage of clouds not great, but there is some northwest into southeastern Saskatchewan all ahead and near a weak 500 mb short wave moving southeast associated with a surface cold front/north wind shift. Trees will be a bit warmer. Given the high pressure system over the Northern Plains around that time its more likely we would not receive anything or receive just a light dusting pending on the timing. The daily highs will fluctuate between the High teens and Low twenties (ND) low twenties to low 30's (MN).
There may end up being a fairly notable north/south thermal gradient from both the existing snow cover but also the potential for a bit more cloud cover across the northern reaches as cold front approaches.
Cooler today and Tuesday with lows falling to around freezing Tuesday night.
GOES 16 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows mainly cumulus or strato-cumulus clouds advecting from southeast to northwest with some of these moving over the Lower and Middle Keys.
The Plains high pressure supporting the Monday push will be replaced by reinforcing high pressure arriving from father west. Rain chances will be supported by a minor mid level trough moving over the area and the boundary. With the forecasted solid cloud cover, high temperatures on Tuesday will be cooler, mainly in the 70s.
1016 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Water vapor shows western CONUS trof with upper low taking shape over WY. Upper low will slowly weaken as it shifts east into the Northern/Central Plains on Monday.
1233 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight. High pressure builds in from Eastern Canada while low pressure tracks well to our south Monday through Tuesday.