Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
441 PM MDT Thu Aug 24 2023 Key Messages: -Isolated storms this evening, a few storms may be strong to severe and capable of strong winds and marginally severe hail -Increasingly unsettled conditions through the end of the week into the weekend with a slight cooldown and near daily chances for storms Current upper air analysis and water vapor imagery depicts upper level high centered over the southern plains with upper low associated with remnants of TC Harold centered over the Four Corners region. Lee trough and sfc front crosses the region this afternoon, potentially triggering some elevated convection.
Key Messages: * Friday will mark a transition day across the region as cooler air begins to filter in across the local area.
However, any lingering precipitation activity will continue to taper off as drier air filters in following the weak passage of the backdoor frontal boundary with quiet weather expected to follow overnight as lows fall into the low to mid 70s.
613 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023 Very hot and dry conditions will continue for the next couple of days across the Mid-South as an upper level ridge remains in place across the region.
This happened after several days of light easterly flow south of the upper ridge that has finally brought in enough low-mid level moisture to support this diurnal activity.
In addition, minimum temperatures were also lowered in order to better depict slightly cooler temperatures in areas close to the TN river. Very hot and humid conditions will continue for the next couple of days across the Mid-South as an upper level ridge remains in place across the region.
35 in) and subsidence have kept convection limited across the CWA today, a consequence of the strong 500 mb ridge centered over the Southern High Plains. That ridge will stay strong while shifting slightly west tonight, perhaps allowing deeper moisture to sneak into the southeast corner of the area toward the mouth of the Rio Grande by Friday morning. an inverted trough will move east to west across the Southwest Gulf and into Northeast Mexico.
618 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023 (Through Tonight) Yet another hot and humid day is in progress across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with much of the area running a few degrees warmer than at this same time yesterday, aided by a good westerly component to the low level winds and lower dew points in most spots. The weather tomorrow will not be markedly different from what has been seen today, with the highest heat index values favored in areas along and east of Highway 75 due to expected dew points - except for the climatologically cooler areas of far northwest Arkansas and adjacent areas of northeast Oklahoma.
However, there were a few breaks in the clouds, which resulted in temperatures reaching the lower 90s at Key West International Airport and Marathon International Airport. High pressure over the eastern United States will promote gentle to occasionally moderate northeast to east breezes. The ridge is forecast to weaken as a trough developes in the north eastern Atlantic waters resulting in light to gentle breezes through the weekend across the Florida Keys waters.
Temperatures in the low 80s now will fall into the mid to upper 70s by daybreak Friday. High pressure across the eastern seaboard shifts offshore, replaced by another area of high pressure filling in from the southeastern U.
658 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023 As of 2345 UTC, the surface cold front extends from roughly Rugby southwest to near New Salem and Hettinger. Only minor changes were made with this forecast update, though we did remove some counties that are well behind the cold front from Severe Thunderstorm Watch #654. A cold front continues to move southeastward as an upper level low moves across southern Saskatchewan. The storms began interacting with the cold front kicking off severe weather this afternoon. Friday temperatures will cool behind the cold front resulting in cooler high temperatures spanning from the upper 60s to upper 70s. An upper level low is forecast to dig across Northern Minnesota bringing northwesterly flow to the Northern Plains. This weekend temperatures are forecast to slightly drop below normal as cooler air moves in from the north.
Surface winds were pretty weak and the cooler and drier air were back well behind the front, so its exact position is hard to say for sure. These gusty winds will finally usher in the cooler and drier air.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) With the ever-present ridge remaining broad and just to the east of the area, temperatures stay above normal for most with mid to upper 90s for most. Tonight and into Saturday morning will see lows in the 60s in the higher elevation to the west and low to mid 70s to the east. The higher elevations getting away with "cooler" temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
139 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Satellite imagery and upper air analysis show a ridge over our region w/ an upstream wave producing nocturnal convection in OR. So, we are looking at a mostly dry day today with post- frontal easterly winds keeping temps cooler than yesterday and just a tad below normal (highs mid 70s to mid 80s).
(Today) Another day of dangerous heat is on tap for today across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure aloft continues to prevail across the area.
252 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 High pressure sliding east across the Canadian Prairies will bring temperatures near seasonal averages with easterly surface winds today.
Key Messages: - The heat wave will end today as a cold front will push through the entire forecast area this afternoon.
The upper- level ridge which has remained entrenched across the Central Plains for the better part of a week looks to remain that way on Friday.
We remain on the eastern edge of the persistent upper ridge centered over the Great Plains, keeping our temperatures several degrees above climatological norms.
/NEW/ /Friday and Saturday/ Hot weather will continue for the next few days, but some slight changes will be apparent as the mid and upper high retrogrades. The retrograding mid and upper high will bring slightly higher moisture into the region, which when combined with afternoon heating and a weak surface boundary, will be sufficient for the development of isolated showers and storms this afternoon.
(Today and tonight) The upper level ridge has drifted south back into the Southern Plains. Through the day today, the ridge is expected to center over the Northwest Texas/Oklahoma region. Temperatures will remain on the hot side today with highs in the low to mid 100s areawide.
(Today and tonight) The upper high will push slightly westward today and be centered mostly over the Texas Panhandle and the South Plains region. This will allow highs to be a few degrees warmer this afternoon than they were yesterday for most areas. The location of the upper high will further inhibit most precip chances for the FA. Tonight will be quiet once again with overnight lows slightly warmer than what is expected for this morning. A cold front will be approaching the region late tomorrow morning but should be just north of the FA by sunrise tomorrow morning.
Cells are tracking from south to north with development slowly propagating eastward ahead of an upper trough. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight as the trough slowly advances eastward. Southerly flow ahead of the trough has pushed smoke to the north.
/Issued 1151 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023/ /Friday and Saturday/ Hot weather will continue for the next few days, but some slight changes will be apparent as the mid and upper high retrogrades. The retrograding mid and upper high will bring slightly higher moisture into the region, which when combined with afternoon heating and a weak surface boundary, will be sufficient for the development of isolated showers and storms this afternoon.
911 PM PDT Thu Aug 24 2023 A trough along the West Coast will maintain at least one more day of relatively cool summer weather over Southern California, before relinquishing control this weekend to a westward building ridge from the Great Plains.
(Today through Saturday) Light and variable winds this morning will shift southeasterly this afternoon in wake of the sea breeze, as South Texas is positioned between a mid-level ridging over the South-Central Great Plains and a TUTT low over the Bay of Campeche. The center of the ridge will shift westward but the eastern periphery will still extend eastward into South Texas.
The upper level high continues to slowly weaken as it slides west. with less and less influence of the upper ridge expected for AR. Even with less influence from the upper ridge. This will allow some areas across NRN AR to see temps a tad cooler.
225 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Morning Discussion: Today into Saturday night: Quiet conditions are expected today following the cold frontal passage yesterday, which will allow for near normal high temperatures today.
Clear skies this morning will again allow for 250-500 J/kg of CAPE across southern Lincoln and northern Clark counties, with CAMs indicating isolated thunderstorm development will favor the higher terrain; however, the NBM is not enthusiastic. The monsoonal high pressure will shift westward through the weekend, rising heights and increasing temperatures across the Desert Southwest.
Overnight temperatures will be in the lower 70s for inland locations, with coastal locations in the mid/upper 70s. Limited moisture aloft will keep precipitation chances on the low side with PoPs currently 15% or below across the area.
Broad upper level ridging will continue to meander around the Southern Plains today before shifting west this weekend as the first of a series of troughs builds into the northeastern CONUS beginning Saturday.
1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 (Through Tonight) Yet another hot and humid day is in progress across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with much of the area running a few degrees warmer than at this same time yesterday, aided by a good westerly component to the low level winds and lower dew points in most spots.
Temperatures were mainly in the 60s, with a few readings in the upper 50s north and in the lower 70s south. The main concern will be thunderstorm activity this afternoon into this evening along a cold front. High temperatures are tricky today as there was a significant difference between the cooler MET and the warmer MAV guidance. The cold front should exit the area by mid to late evening. Also, added rain chances across northeast Wisconsin late tonight into Saturday morning as several models are highlighting showers across the Fox Valley and lakeshore in response to the northerly flow off the warmer waters of the Bay of Green Bay combined with cooler air aloft.
Monsoon moisture will dwindle over the coming days as a high pressure system moves over Arizona. The high pressure centered over central US gradually beings to build westward into the southwest. Thus, coverage will largely be isolated and limited to the higher terrain of northern Arizona, with the greatest coverage expected near the White Mountains.
1218 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 (This evening through Friday night) A 594dm ridge is sitting over the central/southern Plains causing large-scale subsidence across the area. The ridge will move west slightly tomorrow and temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, but the afternoon should be dry. However, this threat will progressively lower as the evening progresses and the low-levels become more stable.
200 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Very similar synoptic setup to 24 hours ago with a 598 dm 500mb ridge parked to the west, and convection over OH/PA to the northeast. Upper level convergence has squashed down the lower-level inversion lowering mixing heights which seems to be making surface dewpoints a little higher in the afternoon, which makes convective temps at least somewhat within reach. The upper level ridge finally breaks down Friday night and northwest flow aloft nudges a backdoor front into the area from the north. Most guidance sort of oozes that boundary south through the early morning Saturday with precip firing in vicinity of the front and behind it with moisture just above the shallow front with northwest flow alfot replacing the stronger subsidence of the upper ridge.
458 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Hot and humid conditions along with a chance for thunderstorms will continue today ahead of a cold front moving south through the area.
(Today through Saturday) High pressure remains the dominant force across the area through Saturday. There will be an approaching cold front but should remain well north of the area through Saturday night. Saturday should be a repeat of today, but dewpoints may be a few degrees cooler, thus slightly lower heat index readings.
In addition, minimum temperatures were also lowered in order to better depict slightly cooler temperatures in areas close to the TN river. Very hot and humid conditions will continue for the next couple of days across the Mid-South as an upper level ridge remains in place across the region. A cold front will drop into the region from the north on Saturday with scattered thunderstorms possible.
1231 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 (This evening through Friday) The upper level high is situating itself closer to our area, centering over Oklahoma and north Texas for the short term.
Somewhat drier air will be over the area Saturday, resulting in more sunshine and warmer temperatures. There will still be a few showers and thunderstorms around but most would be in and near the mountains many of the lower elevations should not see one.
The high will bring drier conditions with near climo normal temperatures. Caa will intensify tonight as the high moves east across North Dakota and winds shift to the northeast. For now, highs are forecast to be a few degrees below average in the lower 70s to around 80. Lack of good mixing during peak heating lends itself to the lower forecast.
652 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Hot and humid conditions along with a chance for thunderstorms will continue today ahead of a cold front moving south through the area.
627 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper high will push slightly westward today and be centered mostly over the Texas Panhandle and the South Plains region. This will allow highs to be a few degrees warmer this afternoon than they were yesterday for most areas. The location of the upper high will further inhibit most precip chances for the FA. Tonight will be quiet once again with overnight lows slightly warmer than what is expected for this morning. A cold front will be approaching the region late tomorrow morning but should be just north of the FA by sunrise tomorrow morning.
652 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 (Today through Saturday) High pressure remains the dominant force across the area through Saturday. There will be an approaching cold front but should remain well north of the area through Saturday night. Saturday should be a repeat of today, but dewpoints may be a few degrees cooler, thus slightly lower heat index readings.
The upper level trough that brought the thunderstorms to the area yesterday has moved to the north and gotten absorbed into another upper level low well off the coast of Oregon and Washington. This afternoon temperatures across the area will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday with most inland areas seeing highs in the 80s, while the coast will see mid 60s. With the cooler air aloft the inversion is weaker this morning so expect the coastal areas will see at least some sun this afternoon. The upper low remains nearly stationary just west of 130W and north of 40N.
509 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 A greatly weakened area of showers and thunderstorms, well in advance of a cold front, will drift across the southeast half of the state through the mid morning hours today. The cold front itself, will drift Southeast across the state this afternoon and evening, bringing isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm to primarily the Susquehanna Valley and points east. High pressure, over South Central Canada, will build southeast and bring a mainly dry weekend with noticeably more comfortable humidity.
The upper level high pressure ridge that has brought record heat to central U.
856 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 High pressure sliding east across the Canadian Prairies will bring temperatures near seasonal averages with easterly surface winds today.
625 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 (Today through Saturday) Light and variable winds this morning will shift southeasterly this afternoon in wake of the sea breeze, as South Texas is positioned between a mid-level ridging over the South-Central Great Plains and a TUTT low over the Bay of Campeche. The center of the ridge will shift westward but the eastern periphery will still extend eastward into South Texas.
423 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 (Issued 422 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023) Today through Saturday: Weak high pressure over nrn WI will across the lake this afternoon and evening, while a wave of low pressure tracks across srn IA today into central IL for this evening.
Winds are starting to pick up in the northern valley, and gusts should be moving south as the cold front continues its trek southward. Showers have sparked in Lakes country, and should move out here in the next hour or so, as they're associated with the cold front. As the cold front continues to push east, northwest to north winds will overspread the entire FA. Surface winds were pretty weak and the cooler and drier air were back well behind the front, so its exact position is hard to say for sure. These gusty winds will finally usher in the cooler and drier air.
505 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Updated Aviation Discussion High pressure sliding east across the Canadian Prairies will bring temperatures near seasonal averages with easterly surface winds today.
630 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 The upper level high pressure ridge that has brought record heat to central U.
For some folks it will feel uncomfortable tonight into Friday morning thanks to yesterday's warmth followed by the warmer night time temperatures.
613 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 (Today) Another day of dangerous heat is on tap for today across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure aloft continues to prevail across the area.
555 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level ridge has drifted south back into the Southern Plains. Through the day today, the ridge is expected to center over the Northwest Texas/Oklahoma region. Temperatures will remain on the hot side today with highs in the low to mid 100s areawide.
604 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) With the ever-present ridge remaining broad and just to the east of the area, temperatures stay above normal for most with mid to upper 90s for most. Tonight and into Saturday morning will see lows in the 60s in the higher elevation to the west and low to mid 70s to the east. The higher elevations getting away with "cooler" temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
523 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 A greatly weakened area of showers and thunderstorms, well in advance of a cold front, will drift across the southeast half of the state through the mid morning hours today. The cold front itself, will drift Southeast across the state this afternoon and evening, bringing isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm to primarily the Susquehanna Valley and points east. High pressure, over South Central Canada, will build southeast and bring a mainly dry weekend with noticeably more comfortable humidity.
1029 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Hot and humid conditions along with a chance for thunderstorms will continue today ahead of a cold front moving south through the area.
As the cold front continues to push east, northwest to north winds will overspread the entire FA. Surface winds were pretty weak and the cooler and drier air were back well behind the front, so its exact position is hard to say for sure. These gusty winds will finally usher in the cooler and drier air.
239 AM PDT Fri Aug 25 2023 A trough along the West Coast will maintain slightly below normal temperatures through Saturday.
Additionally, a surge of moisture from the remnants of tropical cyclone will surge north aiding in increased PoPs across eastern Idaho today.
With that said, there has been a gradual erosion of the mid/upper level ridge and slight migration westward with a much anticipated trough beginning to dig southward over the eastern CONUS. The weakening of the upper level ridge seems to be opening the door for disorganized shower/storm activity during the hours of peak heating. The lower levels are still extremely hot and it will take longer for the thermal ridge to weaken, so be aware that strong gusty winds will be possible with any deep showers/storms given the steep low level lapse rates and "inverted-v" profiles that favor hybrid dry/wet microbursts. Both the GFS and the ECWMF show the mid/upper ridge starting to slowly propagate westward across the Southern Plains by Saturday morning.
550 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Very similar synoptic setup to 24 hours ago with a 598 dm 500mb ridge parked to the west, and convection over OH/PA to the northeast. Upper level convergence has squashed down the lower-level inversion lowering mixing heights which seems to be making surface dewpoints a little higher in the afternoon, which makes convective temps at least somewhat within reach. The upper level ridge finally breaks down Friday night and northwest flow aloft nudges a backdoor front into the area from the north. Most guidance sort of oozes that boundary south through the early morning Saturday with precip firing in vicinity of the front and behind it with moisture just above the shallow front with northwest flow alfot replacing the stronger subsidence of the upper ridge.
From synopsis, ridging across the southeast will gradually weaken over the next few days as a trough develops off the Atlantic coast.
950 AM PDT Fri Aug 25 2023 A trough along the West Coast will continue slightly below normal temperatures through Saturday.
High pressure sliding east across the Canadian Prairies will bring temperatures near seasonal averages with easterly surface winds today.
310 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 A cold front will move across Pennsylvania this afternoon and evening, bringing isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to primarily the Susquehanna Valley and points east. High pressure, over South Central Canada, will build southeast and bring a mainly dry weekend with noticeably more comfortable humidity.
410 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 A weak cold front will drop south of the area this evening. A small disturbance will drop southeast across the region late tonight into Saturday morning followed by a secondary cold front Saturday afternoon and evening.
The higher moisture associated with the TUTT low will drift to the south of the region. Models depict a weak mid level short wave trough will move across the southern Coastal Bend Saturday afternoon.
1241 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper high will push slightly westward today and be centered mostly over the Texas Panhandle and the South Plains region. This will allow highs to be a few degrees warmer this afternoon than they were yesterday for most areas. The location of the upper high will further inhibit most precip chances for the FA. Tonight will be quiet once again with overnight lows slightly warmer than what is expected for this morning. A cold front will be approaching the region late tomorrow morning but should be just north of the FA by sunrise tomorrow morning.
313 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023 A cold front will move across Pennsylvania this afternoon and evening, bringing isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to primarily the Susquehanna Valley and points east. High pressure, over South Central Canada, will build southeast and bring a mainly dry weekend with noticeably more comfortable humidity.