Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
248 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2023 - Fog/freezing fog will be of concern in Upper Yampa Basin and in the Animas Basin in the highway 160 corridor. Otherwise, there is plenty of sunshine to go around on this Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Rockies. The latest guidance has most of the high clouds exiting the region on Sunday, which should make for another mild and mostly sunny day to round out the weekend. High temperatures will be similar to today's readings, if not a couple degrees warmer, and still unseasonably mild for mid December.
A strong ridge of high pressure will remain across the region through at least the early part of the upcoming week. A trough may impact the area late in the upcoming week.
347 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2023 IR currently depicts upper level clouds spilling over an upper level ridge across the Pacific Northwest extending through the CWA and upper Rockies. The upper level ridge will stay in place through the weekend and into early this next work week. However, it looks to break down some and weaken with increasing divergence aloft coming from an upper level low off the northern California coast.
High pressure keeps weather dry and quiet through tomorrow afternoon.
504 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 (This evening through Sunday night) Temperatures as of the latest 19Z obs are well into the 50s across the Panhandles, with some areas even reaching the lower 60s. A weak cold front will move through the Panhandles tomorrow. Besides a wind shift from westerly to northerly, no other impacts from the cold front is expected. Skies remain mostly clear tomorrow night with low temperatures ranging from the lower 20s to lower 30s.
522 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Dry northwest flow aloft will continue over the region through the remainder of the weekend as a large-amplitude upper ridge axis continues to build over the western CONUS. Surface flow will remain light through the daytime hours on Sunday as a weak trough gradually shifts southward over the Texas Panhandle ahead of a weakening cold front set to pass through the region late Sunday.
543 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Upper level troughing advances eastward and a northwesterly mid- level flow develops across South-Central Texas through the short term as ridging dominates the pattern out west. Area cooler drainage valleys and portions of the Hill Country will see the return of freezing temperatures. Sunday will otherwise trend milder as winds shift from out of the west to southwest, with afternoon highs in the low 70s for many.
203 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2023 AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: A warm-front lifting to the northeast through northeast Montana continues to mix down 30-40 kt 850 hPa winds (as seen from , especially across the higher terrain near the Little Rockies. These downslope westerly winds at the surface has caused temperatures generally to remain in the 50s all morning and afternoon downwind of the Little Rockies, with some locations in Petroleum County reaching into the 60s for max temperatures so far today! With daytime heating coming to end in a few hours, this mixing of the PBL will shut off, reducing the wind at lower elevations, while still remaining at times gusty over the highest peaks of the Little Rockies and other rangers over central Montana.
539 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 (The rest of this afternoon ) Skies are slowly clearing from the west this afternoon in the wake of a departing upper level low. For the time being will include patchy freezing fog area-wide as most spots will be AOB freezing, but more widespread coverage may need to be introduced later in some areas. (Tonight through Saturday) Northwest flow develops Sunday which will result in a dry and generally clear day, with warmer temperatures.
444 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2023 - Fog/freezing fog will be of concern in Upper Yampa Basin and in the Animas Basin in the highway 160 corridor. Otherwise, there is plenty of sunshine to go around on this Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Rockies. The latest guidance has most of the high clouds exiting the region on Sunday, which should make for another mild and mostly sunny day to round out the weekend. High temperatures will be similar to today's readings, if not a couple degrees warmer, and still unseasonably mild for mid December.
210 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Dry and sunny conditions are ongoing again today as a ridge continues to traverse east across the area.
The latest surface analysis shows that a NW-SE oriented warm front had developed along this intensifying temperature gradient. The aforementioned upper low will make slow progress to the east, reaching northern Indiana by by late Wednesday night. Across eastern Kentucky, the system's associated warm front should retreat southwest this evening and the first part of tonight as ridging tries to strengthen a bit off to our east. The clouds and precipitation should keep temperatures a little cooler, primarily in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Satellite imagery this morning shows south-southwesterly flow aloft across the Northern Rockies and MT ahead of a broad upper level trough moving inland across the NW US. Otherwise, forecast is on track with a warm and breezy afternoon expected before a Pacific cold front moves east across the region this evening. However a cold front will move from west to east across Montana tonight, resulting in a gradual cooling trend over the next few days.
(Through Tonight) Strong high pressure will be centered well to the north through Tonight, with ridge extending from it down the east coast.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) Short term conditions should be mostly benign, as the current weather pattern remains dominated by an upper level ridge over the Four Corners/Western Texas.
Temperatures during the period will largely be near to above normal for late September with some locations across S/E portions of the forecast area seeing slightly cooler daytime highs due to increased clouds/precip.
250 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 The trough over to our northwest will advance and the low to our northeast will stall. Afternoon minimum humidity should fall to the teens across much of the high country and adjacent plains east out through about Morgan County.
256 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday) A closed upper low is positioned over eastern Iowa and will continue to make its way towards the Great Lakes region during the short term period. Troughing on the southern side of this low continues to work its way into the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure centered near New England is developing a wedge along the lee side of the Appalachians. Afternoon highs tomorrow will be noticeably cooler than today thanks to cool easterly flow and persistent cloud cover, reaching into the upper 70s across the majority of the area.
250 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Late morning surface observations and visible satellite indicate a surface area of low pressure moving across IA with weak 700/500mb cold air advection and a 40kt jet. Tomorrow sees the upper level trough beginning exiting to the east of the region. Wednesday night should see, you guessed it, more thunderstorms! Because of the higher temperatures Wednesday and the built up moisture from the previous 24 hours, MUCAPE will approach 2000 J/kg by 03z.
Meanwhile, expect cooler temperatures for the middle of the week following a cold frontal passage.
The 12Z synoptic analysis shows an upper ridge over the southern and central Rockies between troughing to the northwest and northeast. Soundings and GOES satellite imagery show dry air under the ridge. Forecast highs look good, another 3-5 degrees warmer. We put a bit more resolution in the mountain lows, a couple degrees colder in the valley bottoms and warmer on the ridges. Upper ridging is over the CWA on Wednesday, moving slowly eastward Wednesday night with weak flow aloft.
1213 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 (Today and tonight) We will be situated between an upper level high to our southwest and an upper level low to our northeast. The high will have a stronger influence on our weather today, pushing our temperatures slightly above normal, into the low 90s, and lowering our rain chances for the day.
Temperatures will continue to run about 5-10 degrees F above normal with lows tonight ranging from the lower 70s inland to near 80 coast with Highs Wednesday in the mid to upper 90s with Heat Indices 100-105.
This front is attached to an upper level low moving into Northern Illinois this evening. This front is expected to only reach the first row of counties in the CWA and will keep temperatures along the I-70 corridor a little cooler than the rest of the CWA. This weak frontal boundary may also create a slight chance for a brief light shower but the air in the low levels is so dry, this is more likely to be virga. As such, lowered Tds some for the short term and nudged up the highs and nudged down the lows to compensate for the drier air.
239 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Outside of low probability light rain and drizzle in the higher terrain, dry and seasonably cool conditions are expected through Wednesday morning.
Upper ridging will build into the area a bit more from the west during the day Wednesday, allowing for a slight bump upward in high temperatures compared to today and continued dry weather.
357 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Cut off low centered over east-central Iowa has failed to make much eastward progress today as it collides with sprawling high pressure over Quebec. Shower activity that began over Lake Huron this morning stays anchored to a westward-moving theta-e ridge, and has reinvigorated west of I-75 at the cusp of the upper level jet axis. This area of showers will drift west of the cwa this evening as the moisture axis is drawn cyclonically around the upper low, though lingering sprinkles or a light shower are not out of the question given the low level moisture feed.
There could be a lull Wednesday morning as the positive vorticity advection drops off briefly as the upper level low slowly tracks east. Clouds and cooler temps and showers linger for the southern half of the area Wednesday night as the upper level low slowly tracks toward the eastern Great Lakes.
The upper low to the northeast has drifted south into eastern Iowa with upper ridging slightly farther east into the Front Range of the Rockies. A weak cold front associated with the Iowa wave was draped across central Kansas with lower-level cumulus limited to the DDC/GBD area. Models remain rather consistent with the most likely areas of precipitation continuing to be to the southwest and southeast of the local area, where low-level convergence and instability are greater and deep moisture quality and forcing near the low is better, respectively.
102 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered just off the coast of Baja del Sur, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under northwest flow aloft. Easterly flow will keep a lid on temperatures today, similar to yesterday, if not a degree or two cooler in the south. Wednesday, thicknesses increase, adding 2-3F to afternoon highs, around 7-9F above normal, w/most locations in the lower 90s.
The slow-moving area of low pressure that brought our first appreciable widespread rainfall in months continues to slowly exit the region to the southeast, but cloud cover & a few showers still remain with lingering cyclonic flow in its wake.
Depending on cloud/fog trends, Wednesday should be similar or a few degrees cooler on high temperatures.
Not much change in H50 heights tomorrow but thickness values increase slightly under continued weak northwest flow aloft and max temperatures tomorrow afternoon climbing a few degrees warmer tomorrow than today, mostly due to small increases in H85 and H70 temps under mostly sunny skies.
1205 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 (Today and tonight) Water Vapor imagery currently shows an upper level low over the upper Midwest and an upper level high over the Baja Peninsula, influencing northwest flow aloft over the region. Additionally, a theta-e ridge axis extends from central Mexico to the northern TX Panhandle, this in combination with upslope flow will help initiate thunderstorm development over eastern New Mexico this afternoon.
An upper level low is currently located over Iowa this afternoon. The upper level low will move southeast this evening and tonight. South of the upper low, temperatures are currently in the middle to upper 80s across the area. As the upper level low continues to move southeast this evening and night, showers and storms are expected to develop across portions of central Missouri. Lows tonight will generally cool into the lower 60s as highs warm into the low to mid 80s on Wednesday.
The main concern this morning is for some patchy fog across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois; otherwise, today will start off dry as water vapor imagery shows a trough digging east of the Dakotas setting the stage for some rain chances.
317 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 The cutoff upper level low evident on water vapor imagery over eastern Iowa as of early afternoon will continue to drift southeast into northern Illinois through tonight. Remnant tropical moisture will continue to rotate around the upper level low leading to a few showers and areas of drizzle across the higher terrain through this evening. Pattern Synopsis: Relatively weak upper-level troughing embedded in much larger, amplified ridging that spans much of eastern Canada will slowly pivot across the southern Great Lakes through the second half of the week.
Mid-level water vapor depicts the closed low centered over eastern Iowa quite well. With the shift of the upper trough east through daybreak, any remaining convection will taper off or exit into eastern Missouri before sunrise. With the ever eastward shift of the H500 trough, upper ridging will steadily build on it's heels through the end of the week.
South of the front dewpoints are in the lower 70s while on the north side they are middle to upper 60s.
The lower cloud ceilings (LCLs) are along and north of Highway 30. Into Wednesday, there is good deterministic model agreement in the departure of the upper level low to the east both in terms of timing and location. As the low's influence diminishes, there will still be low scattered shower chances from around Mason City to Waterloo. As the upper level low moves farther into the Ohio Valley Wednesday night, the cyclonic flow of early this week will give way to southwesterly flow in response to a longwave trough that will amplify over the western US. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging will become established over the lower Ohio Valley with the western edge over Iowa by late this week.
740 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure remains largely in control over northern New England through the end of week. Sunny and warmer on Wednesday with high pressure in control. Overview: Dry in the extended with dominant high pressure over or near the region.
637 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Key Messages: - The low pressure system continues to rotate shower and thunderstorms through the area. - Warmer and drier conditions move in for the end of the week and into the weekend. The slow moving area of low pressure is expected to continue its shift eastward towards the Ohio Valley through the day Wednesday.
Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will persist for most of the week. Gusty winds and cooler temperatures this upcoming weekend. Arizona will remain dry under the influence of a ridge, which will keep temperatures at or near records today and Wednesday. After Wednesday the ridge shifts slightly eastward as a strong closed low moves into the Pacific Northwest.
This convection was associated with the higher moisture content southeast near a surface quasi-stationary front. Temperatures during the period will largely be near to above normal for late September with some locations across S/E portions of the forecast area seeing slightly cooler daytime highs due to increased clouds/precip.
The trough over to our northwest will advance and the low to our northeast will stall. Afternoon minimum humidity should fall to the teens across much of the high country and adjacent plains east out through about Morgan County.
An area of low pressure over central Illinois will slowly spin southeast tonight. Marginally unstable MUCAPE of up to 1000 J/kg could result in some embedded thunderstorms tonight, especially near Lake Michigan, where the highest MUCAPE values will be found.
The overall trend of this convection has been to build WSW along a weak trough axis aloft, which should keep it just S of the region through the remainder of the evening before diminishing by/shortly after midnight.
Key Messages * Upper low continues to bring in low clouds and influence temperatures * Fog will redevelop tonight into Wednesday morning An upper low is still spinning over Iowa this afternoon and drawing low clouds into South Dakota. Southeast sfc flow and a building upper ridge will help highs pop into the 70s to near 80 degrees from the James Valley west on Wednesday.
611 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Short term conditions should be mostly benign, as the current weather pattern remains dominated by an upper level ridge over the Four Corners/Western Texas.
1030 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure over Quebec will sag southward across northern New England during the course of the week.
1028 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure over New England will build southward slowly over the next few days, wedging against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians, and bringing abundant cloud cover, patchy light rainfall and below normal temperatures.
This quiet will not last as a boundary south of the island chain has just started to erupt with shower activity and is approaching the Lower and Middle Keys. Offshore marine observation platforms read a somewhat chaotic wind field with southwesterly breezes near the Lower Keys and southeasterly breezes near the Upper Keys.
Updated Aviation Strong high pressure will persist across the region through mid week maintaining dry conditions and keeping high temperatures above normal. Late in the week, a strong low pressure system will slowly move south toward the Desert Southwest forcing a noticeable cooling trend to below normal readings and a period of breezy to locally windy conditions. Current objective analysis showed subtropical high pressure to our south centered near southern Baja, which is helping to boost our heights locally. With these above normal temperatures will also come widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the lower deserts of south- central through tomorrow. Going into the end of the week, attention turns to a strong trough currently affecting the Pacific Northwest. Ensemble cluster analysis shows good agreement amongst members that this trough will dig southward into the Great Basin as we head into this weekend.
Isolated showers and perhaps a lightning storm or two will be possible for most of the night, with the highest chances along the coast.
Arthur Warm, dry and breezy conditions (breezy for western and eastern areas) were found over the area today as an upper ridge was shifting east, ahead of a weak cold front. The cold front will slide east through the area overnight allowing winds to decrease, eventually shifting to the north and east on Wednesday. While no precipitation is expected with the front, temperatures will be a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler on Wednesday.
Tonight and Wednesday The upper low will move slowly from the Quad Cities to northwest Indiana and keep clouds across the region through Wednesday.
754 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 There is a low probability of drizzle in the higher terrain terrain tonight, as well as light rain showers in eastern Ohio.
740 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure over Quebec will sag southwards across northern New England during the course of the week.
352 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Dry and sunny conditions are ongoing again today as a ridge continues to traverse east across the area.
Showers and possible thunderstorm chances are back in the forecast tomorrow evening in west Tennessee as the Mid-South continues to be influence by the low pressure system centered near the western Great Lakes.
404 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Key Messages: - Patchy fog across the forecast area (mainly Platte River Valley?) late tonight into the morning - Generally warm, dry, and windy the next several days - Increased fire weather concerns over the weekend, primarily for southwest Neb Synopsis: The upper closed low continues to spin over the Upper Mississippi Valley, while a ridge builds over the Rockies and High Plains. At the surface, high pressure controls the central and northern Plains. Elsewhere, and especially toward the Platte River Valley, low level flow will be generally light and southeasterly around the high pressure. Trended max temps toward the higher end of the NBM envelope, which ranges from lower 70s north central to lower 80s far west.
Late morning surface observations and visible satellite indicate a surface area of low pressure moving across IA with weak 700/500mb cold air advection and a 40kt jet. Tomorrow sees the upper level trough beginning exiting to the east of the region. Wednesday night should see, you guessed it, more thunderstorms! Because of the higher temperatures Wednesday and the built up moisture from the previous 24 hours, MUCAPE will approach 2000 J/kg by 03z.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) A closed upper low is positioned over eastern Iowa and will continue to make its way towards the Great Lakes region during the short term period. Troughing on the southern side of this low continues to work its way into the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure centered near New England is developing a wedge along the lee side of the Appalachians. Afternoon highs tomorrow will be noticeably cooler than today thanks to cool easterly flow and persistent cloud cover, reaching into the upper 70s across the majority of the area.
1018 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 A prolonged period of dry weather will continue through this week as high pressure remains entrenched across eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. High pressure will continue to build southward into New England tonight, resulting in clearing skies and light winds. The result will be another chilly night, especially in the Adirondacks where lows in the lower to mid 30s and areas of frost are expected. The high will remain in place Wednesday and Wednesday night, keeping skies mostly clear and the weather dry. The dry weather will continue through this period as the weather will be dominated by high pressure centered over Quebec.
655 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 The cutoff upper level low evident on water vapor imagery over eastern Iowa as of early afternoon will continue to drift southeast into northern Illinois through tonight. Remnant tropical moisture will continue to rotate around the upper level low leading to a few showers and areas of drizzle across the higher terrain through this evening. Pattern Synopsis: Relatively weak upper-level troughing embedded in much larger, amplified ridging that spans much of eastern Canada will slowly pivot across the southern Great Lakes through the second half of the week.
Key Messages: - Patchy fog across the forecast area (mainly Platte River Valley?) late tonight into the morning - Generally warm, dry, and windy the next several days - Increased fire weather concerns over the weekend, primarily for southwest Neb Synopsis: The upper closed low continues to spin over the Upper Mississippi Valley, while a ridge builds over the Rockies and High Plains. At the surface, high pressure controls the central and northern Plains. Elsewhere, and especially toward the Platte River Valley, low level flow will be generally light and southeasterly around the high pressure. Trended max temps toward the higher end of the NBM envelope, which ranges from lower 70s north central to lower 80s far west.
527 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 The trough over to our northwest will advance and the low to our northeast will stall. Afternoon minimum humidity should fall to the teens across much of the high country and adjacent plains east out through about Morgan County.