Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
225 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Underneath strong upper level ridging, hot and mostly dry conditions are expected through mid to late week. Given the moderating airmass, lows in the lower to middle 60s. Little if any changes other than hotter temperatures Monday as high pressure remains strong from the surface aloft. Highs in the lower to mid 90s are expected with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
1241 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 As high pressure keeps conditions dry into the middle of this week, a warming trend will also take place. Mostly sunny skies should allow high temperatures to climb into the 80s for most locations along and west of the Blue Ridge. Meanwhile, the Piedmont will reach the lower 90s by this afternoon.
346 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Dominant ridge over southern CONUS supports ample sunshine and warming conditions with 03. This warmer airmass is expected to spill downstream (anticyclonically) today with respective temps of 23-26C. Low-level confluence between the aforementioned ridge and troughing extending from a northern Canadian upper low supports modest gusts near 25 mph until the conclusion of afternoon mixing. Southerly flow ensues Labor Day as the overall synoptic pattern remains largely in-tact under a blocking regime. Gradient winds will be a bit weaker but still offset the cooler low-level environment through warm advection processes and diabatic heating.
317 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Underneath strong upper level ridging, hot and mostly dry conditions are expected through mid to late week. Given the moderating airmass, lows in the lower to middle 60s. Looking aloft, central NC will again be under the influence of dry northerly flow from strong mid/upper ridging centered to our west and a closed mid/upper low centered off the New England coast. 1000-850 mb thicknesses around 10 m higher than today will result in high temperatures in the lower-to-mid-90s, or about 7-10 degrees above normal.
It has been a beautiful day across the Florida Keys, with dew points generally in the lower 70s and partly cloudy skies. There has been no thunder associated with these showers, as all of the moisture is in the lower levels, with a robust dry layer in the mid levels. Temperatures have been able to reach near 90 degrees at both climate sites, however, the lower RH has made a very big difference in the heat index. The expansive deep mean layer ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to pump in modified continental air through tomorrow morning, so dew points will remain in the lower 70s. Despite the increase in rain chances, this moisture will generally be in the lower levels, and the environment still looks unfavorable for thunder along the island chain.
Our weather today and tomorrow (Labor Day) will be driven by an upper level low currently over northern California. Currently, we have scattered convection ahead of a frontal boundary/trough expected later this afternoon into the early evening. Models continue to show the upper level low moving directly overhead overnight, bringing scattered to widespread precipitation chances through all of Labor Day for our northern and eastern areas. Also, snow levels fall to around 10,500 to 11,000 feet MSL supporting light accumulating snow in the high country of the Central mountains overnight into the morning tomorrow. With widespread cloud cover in place behind the cold front, afternoon highs Labor Day will be 15 to 20 degrees below normal in the 50s and 60s.
The upper level low pressure system to our southeast will continue to move through the region today through tonight, with strong storms and widespread rain expected in southwest Idaho and Baker County, OR and Malheur County, OR. Showers and thunderstorms will start to diminish early Labor Day, as a drier and cooler air mass moves in behind the low pressure system exiting to our east. Breezy winds from the passing cold front will continue through Labor Day for the region.
1145 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (Today and tonight) Some mid level echoes associated with the upper low over northeast TX have dissipated now over southeastern OK, but mid clouds remain. Temperatures across SE OK yesterday afternoon were a few degrees cooler than expected within increasing low level moisture profiles. However, the low level thermal ridge will continue to nudge eastward today so it will be warmer than yesterday regardless.
247 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Hot temperatures will develop over the next few days as deep high pressure sits across the Southeast.
1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (Today through Monday Night) Another sunny, warm and dry day is expected today as an upper level ridge continues to dominate our weather. By Labor Day, the H5 ridge begins to get squashed to our south as an upper low over Texas weakens and ejects northeast over us.
1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (Today through Monday) High pressure will build into the area now, keeping any rain chances on the far western side of the state for the next two days.
1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level low currently centered over North Texas will move a little farther west today but will provide no relief from the heat and dry weather. Increasing S/SW surface winds will keep temperatures warmer tonight with lows in the upper 60s and 70s.
147 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 An expansive high pressure ridge will maintain control over our weather through midweek. High pressure making for a sunny albeit warm early September Sunday afternoon. Building heights aloft relatively dry air mixing to the surface beneath a strong subsidence inversion will promote temperatures topping out in the low-mid 90s in the lower Susquehanna Valley with readings generally in the mid 80s elsewhere across central PA. A stout ridge axis, both surface and aloft, will be our controlling feature through at least the middle of the week.
136 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast and a strong 500 mb ridge across the plains into the upper Great Lakes. The trough moves into the Rockies this forecast period and the ridge gets pushed to the eastern U.
204 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging will continue to build over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today. The much drier air mass will support clear skies for much of the region today, which will allow for slightly warmer high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for most.
High pressure was sitting off the SC coastline and is forecast to shift westward into GA overnight. Mid and high level moisture will tend to increase toward morning with some increase in clouds as southerly flow persists between the high and the mid/upper low.
ARS Showers and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase this week ahead of a trough from the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will be on the rise this week reaching the low 90s by midweek. A slow moving cold front will bring more showers and cooler air before stalling out ahead of a stronger cold frontal passage late this week.
738 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 High pressure will sink over the area through tonight with a few quick showers ending near and south of St Augustine. Ridging aloft and subsidence will allow lows to cool below normal into the mid 60s away from the coast along and north of I-10 and down to the upper 60s south of I-10 and for inland north central FL areas overnight while staying near normal in the low to mid 70s from the St Johns river eastward to the coast of NE FL and also coastal SE GA.
There remains a few isolated showers across the Cascades but the low over northern CA will continue to weaken and push east into this evening. Onshore flow will become established helping to keep temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday across many locations as inland highs only reach the mid 70s and coastal temperatures moderate back into the low to mid 60s.
219 PM PDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will diminish through this evening as low pressure exits western Nevada. Warmer and drier conditions will then prevail from Labor Day through the upcoming week.
947 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Hot temperatures will develop over the next few days as deep high pressure sits across the Southeast.
544 PM MDT Sun Sep 3 2023 19z surface analysis had trough from central MT into eastern NE. Water vapour matinee had upper low over northern CA, upper ridge over the plains, and lead impulse over UT/CO.
The rest of the forecast looks good at this time as increasing southerly winds will keep low temperatures warmer than last night in most places. Increased cloud cover areawide should lead to afternoon temperatures a touch cooler than expected today.
713 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Showers and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase this week ahead of a trough from the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will be on the rise this week reaching the low 90s by midweek. A slow moving cold front will bring more showers and cooler air before stalling out ahead of a stronger cold frontal passage late this week.
626 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (Through Tonight) All eyes are on the currently largely stationary upper low highly evident in satellite and radar imagery centered over southeastern Denton County, Texas. The upper level low remains forecast to move very slowly northward tonight, centered along the Red River daybreak tomorrow. Expect overnight lows to be warmer in most spots than observed this morning, with increased low level moisture areawide. Increased cloud cover areawide should lead to afternoon temperatures a touch cooler than expected today.
730 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 An expansive high pressure ridge will maintain control over our weather through midweek.
Current surface analysis places trough through the upper midwest into the central plains, while another low lingers to the lee of the Northern Rockies. Upper level analysis places low amplitude ridge passing over our area and to the east, while low/trough now sliding over the Cascade Mountains/northern Sierra. Southwest flow is starting to nudge towards far western portions of our area with the gradual departure of the aforementioned ridge. For tonight, upper ridge continues its departure with active southwest flow developing over our area. On Monday, shower chances with a few storms linger mainly over northern areas through the morning as a cold front starts its progression into the area.
1031 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Sprawling high pressure centered over the eastern Tennessee Valley through the Labor Day holiday will keep warm and humid, but dry, conditions entrenched across the Ohio Valley.
The persistent mid level ridge over the Northern Plains will start to breakdown this period. An upper trof currently near the west coast of California will get ejected into the Northern Plains over the next couple days. However, for Monday night/Tues that thermal ridge will subside as the heart of the upper trof pushes across the forecast area.
632 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 High pressure will remain over the area through the first half of this week with dry weather.
740 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 High pressure will remain over the area through the first half of this week with dry weather.
Area soundings fairly dry in the low- mid levels and warm temps aloft limiting destabilization. Mid/upper level high pressure will dominate the region as it slowly shifts towards the eastern seaboard. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
This pattern is part of a low pressure system that is hovering across southern Oregon and northern California. This low will push eastward tonight and shower chances will largely decrease through the evening and overnight hours. Conditions will dry out after that, but southern Oregon and northern California will remain under a broad troughing pattern. Weak low pressure systems will pass through the Pacific Northwest, mostly in northern Oregon and in Washington. Generally, this pattern will keep temperatures cooler than normal and winds may be a bit breezy, especially in the afternoons and evenings.
Lows will range from the mid 60s in the higher elevations east to readings in the lower 70s west and southwest. Highs will range from the upper 80s in the higher elevations east to readings in the low to mid 90s southwest.
Mid/upper level theta-e plume around northern periphery of upper ridge/high will also continue to promote varying degrees of cloudiness aoa 20kft or so, especially this evening into tonight before the upper ridge expands north into the region. Dominant ridge over southern CONUS supports ample sunshine and warming conditions with 03. This warmer airmass is expected to spill downstream (anticyclonically) today with respective temps of 23-26C. Low-level confluence between the aforementioned ridge and troughing extending from a northern Canadian upper low supports modest gusts near 25 mph until the conclusion of afternoon mixing. Southerly flow ensues Labor Day as the overall synoptic pattern remains largely in-tact under a blocking regime. Gradient winds will be a bit weaker but still offset the cooler low-level environment through warm advection processes and diabatic heating.
714 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Hot temperatures will develop over the next few days as deep high pressure sits across the Southeast.
557 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Heat increases on Labor Day with a medium chance for heat index values above 110 across the southern Coastal Bend The thinking behind the short term forecast remains unchanged with temperatures a few degrees warmer on Labor Day as the 500 hPa cutoff low begins to lift northeast.
609 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (This afternoon through Monday Night) The upper low continues to spin over the Red River Valley with Middle Tennessee under the influence of light southerly flow today.
509 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (Tonight) To our west, an upper level low continues to spin across northeast TX/southern OK this afternoon. To our east, high pressure is centered over NC/SC.
High pressure remains the dominant feature over the region with drier air settling over the state. Guidance suggests PW values dip a bit further on Monday leading to similarly dry, pleasant and less humid conditions for Labor Day under mostly sunny skies with highs in the lower 90s. The remainder of the holiday weekend looks uneventful as high pressure settles off the southeast U. Daytime highs will be near normal in the lower 90s, but with the drier air, dew points dipping into the 60s, it won't feel nearly as bad as it did a few days ago.
706 PM PDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Cooler and breezy weather continues into Monday, with showers and embedded thunderstorms. As an upper low over northern California shifts east, it's replaced by a northwest flow over the region.
611 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) Tonight will have an upper low along the Red River separating the ridge over W TX from the ridge over the SE States. While this is occurring a trough will move over ID/NV. This trough will swing over WY/MT Monday while the TX low opens up and moves into AR/MO Warmer lows tonight with 70s across the Permian Basin and generally 60s elsewhere. Lows Monday night a couple degrees warmer than tonight.
Sfc and upper ridge axis oriented roughly along the I-75 corridor will maintain very warm and dry conditions through the Labor Day holiday, leaving us with essentially a temperature forecast. Low- level thickness progs suggest Monday highs will run 2-3 degrees warmer than today, with most of the greener locations topping out around 90 while lower 90s will be predominant in the more urbanized areas.
923 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Not many adjustments made to the forecast as high pressure rules our weather for another night. (This afternoon through Monday Night) The upper low continues to spin over the Red River Valley with Middle Tennessee under the influence of light southerly flow today.
741 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Aviation - Dry and Warm through Monday Night - A dry pattern will continue through the short term as upper level ridging will remain in place. By the end of the period an upper trough will be located in the Plains, but any precipitation will remain off to the west. feel the GFS remains too warm at 850mb and followed the slightly "cooler" ECWMF temperatures.
A weak system will move through the area into tonight for increased light rain and cooler temperatures.
922 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 High pressure will remain over the area through the first half of this week with dry weather.
720 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Underneath strong upper level ridging, hot and mostly dry conditions are expected through mid to late week. Given the moderating airmass, lows in the lower to middle 60s. Looking aloft, central NC will again be under the influence of dry northerly flow from strong mid/upper ridging centered to our west and a closed mid/upper low centered off the New England coast. 1000-850 mb thicknesses around 10 m higher than today will result in high temperatures in the lower-to-mid-90s, or about 7-10 degrees above normal.
905 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Hot and dry high pressure will hold over the region through mid week. This anticyclone extends up through 850 mb, centered just to our SW, and above that level, a dry-trajectory flow from the NNW and N extends up through the mid and upper levels. Given the moderating airmass, lows in the lower to middle 60s. Looking aloft, central NC will again be under the influence of dry northerly flow from strong mid/upper ridging centered to our west and a closed mid/upper low centered off the New England coast. 1000-850 mb thicknesses around 10 m higher than today will result in high temperatures in the lower-to-mid-90s, or about 7-10 degrees above normal.
Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances trend upwards into the afternoon, with the highest chances across south central Missouri. The environment may be supportive for a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the vicinity of the high instability (2000-3000 J/kg) and weak shear. A few of the CAMs hint at some activity lingering into the the late evening across the eastern Ozarks in the vicinity of the low- level jet, though confidence remains low in this potential.
119 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Sprawling high pressure centered over the eastern Tennessee Valley through the Labor Day holiday will keep warm and humid, but dry, conditions entrenched across the Ohio Valley.
At the same time, an upper low situated near the Ozarks will gradually rotate eastward, and this feature is helping to advect deeper moisture into Middle Tennessee, mostly west of I-65.
1117 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 An expansive high pressure ridge will maintain control over our weather through midweek. An upper level ridge building over the region will supply fair and hot weather Monday and Tuesday. Ensemble mean 850mb temps around 20C supports highs from the mid and upper 80s over the Alleghenies and in the mid 90s across the Lower Susq Valley.
318 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue across the CWA through today. The upper ridge will begin to shift offshore on Tuesday, but high pressure at the surface will remain.
149 AM PDT Mon Sep 4 2023 A weak low pressure system will bring an increase in clouds and a slight chance of light rain showers across northeast CA and northwest NV tonight and Tuesday morning. After several days of cool and wet weather, the weather pattern will be transitioning to drier and warmer as heights rise across the western CONUS. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevailing with a drier and warmer airmass returning this week.
357 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Early this morning, a weak, closed, mid/upper level low was centered over southeast OK, and was in the process of opening up and getting absorbed into the eastern side of a larger trough lifting northeastward out of the western CONUS. Meanwhile, ridging/high pressure at all levels was situated from the Great Lakes south over KY to the eastern gulf. By Tuesday evening the trough advancing from the western CONUS will be over the northern plains, and the weak upper low will have devolved into an open wave from Lake Michigan to MS. Our ridging will have shifted slightly east over the Appalachians. Moisture riding north between the wave to our west and the ridge to our east will result in an increase in clouds for our local area, mainly over our western counties tonight and Tuesday.
The previously mentioned clouds and moisture in E/SE parts of the fa are associated with an upper low that is expected to slowly meander N and NE across eastern OK today. This low will lead to a low chance for a few showers/storms in SE/E portions of the fa with the highest chances this morning.
434 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will remain over the area through the first half of this week with dry weather.
157 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 An expansive high pressure ridge will maintain control over our weather through midweek. An upper level ridge building over the region will supply fair and hot weather Monday and Tuesday. Ensemble mean 850mb temps around 20C supports highs from the mid and upper 80s over the Alleghenies and in the mid 90s across the Lower Susq Valley.
The rest of the forecast looks good at this time as increasing southerly winds will keep low temperatures warmer than last night in most places.
344 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Hot and dry high pressure will hold over the region through mid week. This anticyclone extends up through 850 mb, centered just to our SW, and above that level, a dry-trajectory flow from the NNW and N extends up through the mid and upper levels. Given the moderating airmass, lows in the lower to middle 60s. Looking aloft, central NC will again be under the influence of dry northerly flow from strong mid/upper ridging centered to our west and a closed mid/upper low centered off the New England coast. 1000-850 mb thicknesses around 10 m higher than today will result in high temperatures in the lower-to-mid-90s, or about 7-10 degrees above normal.
The persistent mid level ridge over the Northern Plains will start to breakdown this period. An upper trof currently near the west coast of California will get ejected into the Northern Plains over the next couple days. However, for Monday night/Tues that thermal ridge will subside as the heart of the upper trof pushes across the forecast area. High temperatures across the CWA will vary greatly, with highs in the mid 60s, in north central SD, to the lower 80s in western Minnesota.
A field of scattered to broken cumulus have developed over the high country, but remain very shallow as the upper levels continue to dry out. The exception will be across northwestern Arizona this afternoon/tonight, where isolated thunderstorms remain possible ahead of a trough moving into the Great Basin. The trough will progress through Utah and Colorado on Monday, bringing further drying to Arizona along with increased southwesterly winds. The dry and breezy pattern is here to stay through the week as we remain on the western edge of high pressure building over New Mexico/Texas. Overnight lows will be on the cool side, especially early this week, when the air mass is dry and a bit cooler than normal.
Either side of trough features gusty south-southeast winds and gusty south- southwest winds. For the overnight hours, a strong cold front moves through with 3 hour pressure rises generally 5 to 10mb (GFS model). High temperatures will be cooler, ranging from the upper 70s to upper 80s.
320 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Today and Tonight: An upper-level low pressure system (seen spinning over the TX/OK Red River on water vapor satellite imagery) should fill and become absorbed by the broader flow pattern over the CONUS heading into tonight. With high pressure aloft and at the surface in the Southeast US, southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico will keep PWAT values around 2. 0 inches through the Lower Mississippi River Valley today. There is some flow aloft around this low pressure system, and effective shear values around 20 kts could support some organization in lines or clusters of storms through this evening.