Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
DIA is at 85 and on its way to the low 90s. Afternoon high temperatures are slightly cooler than yesterday but majority of the plains will reach the low 90s. Mountains and valleys will reach the low 70s to low 80s. More confidence in the dry weather across the high country and I-25 corridor with highs climbing above seasonal normals (90s for the metro/upper 70s & 80s high country).
216 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 A cold front becomes stationary over northern Ohio by late evening. Low pressure lifting from Michigan into Ontario Thursday will drag a cold front across the region Thursday night.
East-west warm front currently extends along the southern Michigan border with IN/OH. The heavier rains move east this evening with mostly stratiform showers into Thursday morning and then a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon as CAPE spikes up to over 1000 J/kg The upper low over southern Hudson Bay will slowly sink south with time across Ontario and eventually the U. The parade of short waves rotating around the low will result in enhanced chances for rain through the period.
(Rest of today through Thursday) An area of high pressure over the Gulf will continue to build over Florida through the short term, allowing for light southeasterly flow to develop and hot temperatures to persist over much of the area. Highs in the low to mid 90s are expected with heat indices likely reaching the 105-110 degree mark.
259 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2023 Aside from an isolated thunderstorm over the Little Rockies and nearby areas this evening, most of NE Montana will remain dry with seasonable temperatures with high pressure lingering.
102 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 A weak inland trough will develop today as high pressure builds over the Atlantic into the weekend. Otherwise, very warm temperatures continue with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Tonight: Quiet conditions anticipated with lows falling back into the lower and middle 70s. Zonal flow will prevail aloft as the region remains positioned between troughing well to the north and ridging across the southwestern states.
/14 (Now through Thursday) An upper level ridge will slowly build across the area as the upper trough moves east. Despite the upper ridge, plenty of deep layer moisture and heating will again lead to the development of scattered to numerous showers and storms today.
High pressure remains over the area, so little change in the day-to- day weather pattern is expected over the next several days. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the lower 90s to the north with Southwest and interior Florida topping out in the middle to upper 90s each afternoon.
A few of the heavier storms may be capable of producing gusty winds with the low wet microburst risk today. Highs will range from the upper 80s east to the low 90s southeast and south-central. Highs will range from the upper 80s northwest to the low 90s southeast.
At the surface, winds are southerly to the east of a southern High Plains low pressure. Our area lies on the eastern periphery of a large mid level ridge centered over the southwest CONUS.
With the mid-level ridge in place the heat is just going to continue to be the main focus of the short term forecast. As for the temperatures expect pretty much the same pattern that we have been seeing with highs in the triple digits over most of the region, while areas along the coast and in the Lower Rio Grande Valley are in the upper 90s.
Clouds will linger into Thursday morning before clearing and expecting a drier and warmer day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, especially inland.
We will also see warmer temperatures with them maxing out in the low to mid 90s, cooler over the Plateau. Dew points will be cranked up by this point so, even with temperatures in the low 90s, it's gonna be sticky.
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 High pressure centered over central VA will shift offshore tonight. A Bermuda high pressure system will then develop and extend into the area, setting up a hot and humid regime for late in the week. We've seen dew points mix out nicely into the lower to mid 60s for much of our area, limiting higher instability to just our southeastern zones (where dew points are in the lower 70s). A few isolated showers have developed within this higher instability area over the past several hours but quickly fell apart. Otherwise, lows in the lower to mid 70s are expected tonight. Anomalous ridging anchored across the far southwestern US on Thursday will promote downstream troughing over the Midwest. Dew points will return back into the lower 70s for much of the area.
247 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday) 500mb analyses shows NW flow aloft with a strong perturbation across the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 50s across the north to around 60 across east- central Wisconsin. Highs on Thursday will be warmer ranging from the middle to upper 70s across the north with highs around 80 across central and east- central Wisconsin. Thursday Night Through Wednesday Synopsis: The upper air pattern will generally remain relatively stable and consist of a trough stretching from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes over the period.
Thursday: A trough over the great lakes will pull a cold front into the Ohio River Valley. The highest chances for showers/storms is between 2pm-8pm. Discussion: East coast troughing continues with ridging over the west and southwest.
For now, capped PoPs at 30% given the high uncertainty. We are holding off on any heat headlines for Thursday due to uncertainty with cloud cover and any convection, which may lead to high temperatures being cooler than the current low 90s forecasted. Our region will be sandwiched in between the mid level low currently spinning across Hudson Bay and a strong ridge across the southwest U. The upper low slowly pivots southward this weekend and becomes centered across the Great Lakes.
The system cold front then trails into the rest of the forecast area this evening with renewed chances for convection along it.
1107 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 Showers are moving across the area, as a Low pressure system to our south pushes east. As the frontal zone/main theta-E gradient remains well south of our CWA instability will be on the lower (elevated CAPE 500 J/KG or less), so lightning should be the main threat.
A cold front was drifting south and should settle over the area south of the Michigan border to a little south of the office/North Webster. The front should start lifting north as a warm front as upstream storms arrive. Chances for showers and a few storms will continue at times as an upper low drifts south and amplifies into the Upper Great Lakes region and as additional impulses move rapidly in the flow.
1157 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over New Mexico/Chihuahua, w/a temperature of 86F at KMAF at 08Z. A broad trough is meandering south through Manitoba, and will begin pushing the ridge west Thursday, decreasing thicknesses over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico and shaving a degree or two off afternoon highs.
104 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper high ridge over Northern Mexico and the American Southwest will continue to build across the Southern Plains resulting in more widespread heating under maximum sunshine. An upper trough interacting with a cold front/surface boundary is expected to initiate severe storms tonight across the Central Plains & Midwest Region.
1258 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper-level ridging will begin to expand towards the forecast area today. As the upper-level ridge expands towards us today subsidence will be on the increase.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues tomorrow with heat index values up to 117 degrees possible With an upper-level high pressure remaining parked over the Desert Southwest, increased subsidence over the region will promote above- normal daytime highs. Southerly flow at the surface will continue to usher in a moist airmass with dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s with the highest dewpoints expected across the Coastal Plains. With warm to mild overnight low temperatures expected tonight and tomorrow, poor heat index recoveries will result in heat index values in the lower to upper 90s along the Coastal Bend.
(This afternoon through Thursday Night) Hopefully you got to enjoy the lower dew points the last few days because the summer like humidity has returned. Dew points have risen into the low to upper 70s for the western half of the area and near 70 east. We will be moving into an unsettle weather pattern into the weekend as an upper level low over Canada spinning short waves into the Plains and over Middle TN.
This uptick in moisture could lead to some patchy fog by tomorrow morning, especially over western Wisconsin where temperatures will be slightly cooler. Most of Thursday as of now looks to remain tranquil with decreasing clouds and highs in the low to 80s.
104 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2023 Ridging will keep WY hot and dry through Thursday afternoon.
Notably, dewpoints higher to the south of this boundary, in the low 70s compared to upper 50s to mid 60s to the north. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast to be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, mainly reaching into the low 90s in north Georgia and mid 90s in central Georgia. The drier airmass and the influence of the high will inhibit convection across much of north Georgia today. Deep atmospheric moisture will also return ahead of this disturbance, with dewpoints increasing rising into the low to mid 70s and precipitable water values increasing to over 2 inches. With these dewpoints and high temperatures rising in to the low to mid 90s once again, SBCAPE values are progged to range from 2500-3000 J/kg during the peak heating hours.
254 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 High pressure over the region will maintain fair and mainly dry weather through tonight. In general, a quiet evening and overnight with high pressure in control. Going forecast for Thursday will reflect the greatest chance for measurable rainfall across areas west of the Blue Ridge for the afternoon, then gradually increase the threat and move it to include areas east of mountains by Thursday evening. By late Thursday, an upper low will be will established with its center over Canada. The troughing associated with this low will be what drives most of our weather through the weekend.
The favorable Monsoon flow that finally brought deeper moisture and a daily chance of thunderstorms to the area will waver as high pressure shifts overhead and northwest of the area. The upper level high is currently spinning over Arizona that will slowly drift westward towards California, so activity in the White Mountains is likely with this pattern. We aren't going to be able to sustain that as high pressure builds in from the east and the high reconsolidates into a less favorable position to our northwest over the next 72 hours.
1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) Mid to upper level ridge situated over New Mexico and Western Texas will continue to dominate the weather pattern over Southeast Texas. The high temperatures for today will be in the upper 90s to low 100s inland and in the low to mid 90s along the coasts.
1112 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 High pressure and dry weather are expected through tonight. Warmer temperatures and the chance of rain return on Thursday and daily showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend. Isolated showers possible along southern Blue Ridge In general, a quiet afternoon with high pressure in control. CAMS suggest cu field to develop along the southern Blue Ridge between ROA-TNB and over the foothills/piedmont southeast of ROA where convergent southerly flow and lack of cap may allow for some shallow cloud build-ups during the afternoon. An upper level trough looks to approach the eastern US from the west, while its associated cold front slowly tracks eastward through this forecast period.
(Through Tonight) With drier air intruding over southeast Georgia and the northeastern Florida coast, the highest thunderstorm coverage will be over north central Florida through this evening.
Given this, it leaned toward the NBM fifth percentile for the cooler, sheltered valleys in the east, with afternoon dewpoints mixing into the lower 60s. Thursday will feature a weak boundary sagging into the Lower Ohio Valley. The large scale pattern in the extended will continue to feature a large trough of low pressure aloft moving across southern Canada, The Great Lakes, and then New England. Flow around the southern periphery of the the trough will allow a persistent flow of warm moist Gulf of Mexico air into the region.
This could help spark more widespread thunderstorm activity Thursday night, especially if storms across the high plains can organize into and MCS.
(This evening through Thursday Night) The western edge of upper-level ridging will continue its influence tonight as southerly winds continue to maintain a moist atmosphere.
Highs Thursday afternoon will range from the low-mid 80s in the mountains, to the low-mid 90s in the Middle to Lower Susquehanna Valleys.
Given the little change expected to the synoptic pattern in the coming days as a robust midlevel ridge remains dominant over the South Central/Southwestern CONUS, the potential for excessive heat will persist for the foreseeable future.
The warming trend will return on Thursday, with temperatures trending up a few degrees as high pressure ridging over the Desert Southwest extends westward.
The "cooler" air that moved with this outflow did impede daytime heating enough to keep much of the area below heat advisory criteria which is welcome. The low level evidence of this system can be seen in observations across south central Kansas. Air temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the low 70s setup an fairly unstable environment, especially south of the MO River. Around sunset, the low level jet is expected to ramp up across SE KS which further enhances moisture transport into the southwest portion of the CWA. Slight ridging tomorrow provides a short break in the rain; however, temperatures are once again expected to climb into the low to mid 90s across the area.
Temperatures top out in the lower 80s with 70s expected along the lakeshore.
725 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (This evening through Thursday Night) The western edge of upper-level ridging will continue its influence tonight as southerly winds continue to maintain a moist atmosphere.
A weak upper ridge passed through our CWA today with slight warming from yesterday. Tonight a weak north Pacific trough will come inland along the Canadian border with a few clouds over northern areas, but also slight cooling for all our CWA Thursday.
624 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) A strong mid-level ridge remains centered over the Four Corners region this afternoon.
A few light showers have developed over the higher terrain that are producing gusty winds. Other showers will likely form mainly over the higher terrain this afternoon with similar gusts possible. Otherwise, there will be seasonal temperatures with Denver reaching the low 90s.
Weak ridging is to blame for this negligible flow. In the rest of the island communities, lows will only drop a few degrees into the lower to mid 80s. From synopsis, weak high pressure will remain near or just to the north of the Florida Keys coastal waters.
320 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2023 Residual moisture, steep lapse rates, and at least modest instability have resulted in a few isolated showers and storms across some of the higher terrain in western Colorado this afternoon. High resolution CAM soundings show quite a bit of dry air in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, so most of this shower and storm activity isn't producing much in the way of rainfall that is actually reaching the ground. Can't rule out an isolated shower or storm or two over the higher terrain Thursday afternoon, but that would be about it.
WIth limited moisture with the high shifting, activity north of where it's currently located isn't expected for the remainder of the day, outside of some isolated showers. as the high shifts, precip chances will continue to drop and become confined primarily over the Whites. The high's shift, combined with drier conditions will allow for temperatures to continue to increase as we near the weekend.
A few of the CAMs are advertising a brief window for some patchy fog over the higher terrain across the north and west late tonight, but uncertainty regarding exact location and duration precludes mention in the gridded forecast at this time.
Modest destabilization has occurred to our west with remnant MCV triggering storms along a well-defined warm front draped over our CWA. The system cold front then trails into the rest of the forecast area this evening with renewed chances for convection along it.
720 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Hopefully you got to enjoy the lower dew points the last few days because the summer like humidity has returned. Dew points have risen into the low to upper 70s for the western half of the area and near 70 east. We will be moving into an unsettle weather pattern into the weekend as an upper level low over Canada spinning short waves into the Plains and over Middle TN.
344 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2023 An upper ridge is bringing mostly clear skies and dry conditions to the Northern Rockies this afternoon. There is a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm over the Beartooth/Absaroka to northern Bighorn Mountains this afternoon into the early evening as suggested by the high-resolution model data. This disturbance will facilitate isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development (20-60% chance) especially over the higher terrain west of Billings in the afternoon, with the showers and storms moving east/southeastward over the lower elevations.
613 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 KEY MESSAGES 1) Mostly quiet conditions into Thursday with perhaps some fog in the morning and warmer temperatures by afternoon.
604 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2023 Residual moisture, steep lapse rates, and at least modest instability have resulted in a few isolated showers and storms across some of the higher terrain in western Colorado this afternoon. High resolution CAM soundings show quite a bit of dry air in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, so most of this shower and storm activity isn't producing much in the way of rainfall that is actually reaching the ground. Can't rule out an isolated shower or storm or two over the higher terrain Thursday afternoon, but that would be about it.
TFJ Aside from an isolated thunderstorm over the Little Rockies and nearby areas this evening, most of NE Montana will remain dry with seasonable temperatures with high pressure lingering.
(This afternoon through Thursday) 500mb analyses shows NW flow aloft with a strong perturbation across the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
High pressure continues to support hot temperatures along with dry and quiet weather conditions. The high pressure system slowly moving toward the Four Corners will cause that, along with gustier winds that may lead to an increase in fire weather concerns.
a few degrees cooler along the immediate coast and a few degrees warmer across the southern and central interior. High pressure remains over the area, so little change in the day-to- day weather pattern is expected over the next several days. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the lower 90s to the north with Southwest and interior Florida topping out in the middle to upper 90s each afternoon.
515 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2023 Ridging will keep WY hot and dry through Thursday afternoon.
639 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues tomorrow with heat index values up to 117 degrees possible With an upper-level high pressure remaining parked over the Desert Southwest, increased subsidence over the region will promote above- normal daytime highs. Southerly flow at the surface will continue to usher in a moist airmass with dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s with the highest dewpoints expected across the Coastal Plains. With warm to mild overnight low temperatures expected tonight and tomorrow, poor heat index recoveries will result in heat index values in the lower to upper 90s along the Coastal Bend.
Overnight lows could be a bit warmer than the forecast, depending on how persistent the cloud cover is, but will hold off on modifying at this point.
Seasonal temperatures will remain in place through Thursday with an upper level trough sitting over the Pacific Northwest. Thursday should see a repeat of today with interior temperatures warming a few degrees as the trough begins to shift north. The heat remains on track for this weekend as ridging builds northwest toward the region.
The favorable Monsoon flow that finally brought deeper moisture and a daily chance of thunderstorms to the area will waver as high pressure shifts overhead and northwest of the area. Storms are beginning to pop up over the higher elevations (mostly in the White Mountains) and moving around the weak upper level high that has situated over Arizona. Storms are once again mostly in areas east and south of Tucson due to the flow of the high and the orographic (terrain) driven lift to pop up the storms. Looking ahead, storm coverage for tomorrow will be limited to mostly the Arizona and New Mexico border due to the upper level high shifting towards California.
South Central Texas will remain under the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge through the short term resulting in continued hot and dry conditions. Low and high temperatures today will continue to be within a deg or two of persistence from yesterday, and slightly warmer than the NBM in many areas. Drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks in the shade and air conditioning, limit strenuous activities to the cooler parts of the day, and check up on those without air conditioning.
208 AM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Mean WNW flow will persist through most of the period, as the central Canadian upper low remains in place.
316 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 A strong west northwest upper level jet will see a slight dip in the flow this afternoon which should enhance westerly flow in the lower levels a bit and swing through a weak mid level wave. Did lower dew points a touch generally west of I-29 as model soundings show that deeper mixing should yield dew points in the lower to mid 50s. Did not go quite that low but lower 60 dew points seemed a bit on the high side. While it does not appear that we will have a major source driving a low level jet we should still have some weak forcing and given continued weak troughing scattered development will remain possible through the night, especially south of I-90 and over southwest MN and northwest IA.
Thus wonder if the low blanket of clouds will deter areas of dense fog from forming, and may have to watch more of the south half of the fcst area where there is more clear skies. Mixing depths on fcst soundings support high temps in the low to mid 80s, with sfc DPTs in the mid 60s.
214 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the desert sw and southeast and a trough in the Pacific NW and a broad trough across the Great Lakes and New England. With the trough in the area, showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the heating of the day and will also see them pop up along lake breeze convergence boundaries. This is already covered in the going forecast with the highest pops in the heat of the day.
Showers and thunderstorms will move southward into northern portions of the CWA during the overnight period, as a cold front and associated outflow boundary push south toward our northern border. High temperatures Thursday in the lower to upper 90s, with heat index values from the mid 100s to lower 110s. By Friday, high temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s, with heat index values reaching the mid 100s, mainly across eastern and southeastern AR.