Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An unsettled weather pattern remains as an upper-level trough continues to funnel moist and conditionally unstable air across the FL peninsula. Even as the feature lifts towards the weekend and a ridge replaces it, the light flow, ample moisture, and saturated atmosphere will remain.
1231 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over eastern IA, upper ridge axis along/east of the spine of the Rockies, and upper low just offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, ridge is over the eastern Dakotas with deepening lee trof across MT/WY. Upper ridge axis will slowly migrate east the next couple of days, with warming temps and increasing southeast winds.
As another front moves onshore tonight winds will increase along the coast, ridgelines, and valleys of Douglas, Coos, and Curry County. From a near certainty at the coast, rain chances drop down to 50-65% in the valleys along I-5, back up to around 80% in the Cascades, and taper quickly down to 25% east of the Cascades as far as Silver Lake and Winter Ridge.
Dry conditions will continue through the week with temperatures gradually dropping in the late week and through the weekend as the high pressure ridges move east and a low pressure trough makes its way south over the southwestern U.
235 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Warm, dry and breezy conditions (breezy for western and eastern areas) were found over the area today as an upper ridge was shifting east, ahead of a weak cold front. The cold front will slide east through the area overnight allowing winds to decrease, eventually shifting to the north and east on Wednesday. While no precipitation is expected with the front, temperatures will be a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler on Wednesday.
201 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 A few rain showers are possible this evening and Wednesday as troughing aloft establishes to our west. A return to cooler conditions will occur by mid-A week as high pressure builds southward east of the Appalachians, with this continuing into the weekend. High pressure will continue to build southward into the region through tonight. This will result in weak northeasterly to easterly flow in the low levels. Current radar this afternoon shows showers over the Lowcountry and down into southern GA. With cloud cover across the region, temperatures will be slow to drop and expect overnight mins mainly in the lower to middle 60s.
-A broad area of low pressure will approach on the weekend, however the forecast looks to remain mostly dry with increased clouds and wind over that time. Discussion: Clear skies and dry weather will dominate the forecast for the next three days as ridging aloft continues over the central Rockies.
Aloft, a longwave trough over the eastern United States will keep the pattern unsettled. While enhanced cloud cover with the copious amounts of deep layered moisture will help keep temperatures slightly cooler than they had been a few days back (with highs in the upper 80s in most areas), there could still be a few areas that climb to around 90.
356 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 A low meanders across central and southern Illinois before opening up into a trough by Wednesday.
Discussion: Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis show a compact upper level low centered across Iowa this afternoon with weak troughing south, across much of the southeast and into the open GoM. At the surface, high pressure is located across Quebec with ridging extending southward into the Carolinas. High pressure to the northeast has contributed to an easterly wind component this afternoon. Dry conditions are expected for much of the afternoon with only a slight chance of a shower or two across the higher peaks of the Southern Appalachians. Heading into tonight, the upper low moves east and into Illinois by 12Z Wed. Aforementioned upper level low continues to steadily move east on Wednesday, with a 60-70 knot upper level jet just to our north, across eastern Kentucky.
1116 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 An amplified ridge axis was splitting the CWA on the latest H500 hand analysis map. squeezed between an upstream block and digging EPac trough. The latest iteration shows some afternoon CAPE again but much less than yesterday so will again push my luck and go with a dry forecast and more popping afternoon CU on the ridges. High latitude energy dropping into the western trough will begin to dig this feature farther into the Western States on Wednesday. pushing the ridge out onto the Plains and begin to introduce breezy conditions to our western CWA by the afternoon. A lobe of energy will dropping through the base of the Western States trough will nudge the ridge over our area to the East while it digs the trough southward.
304 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 A prolonged period of dry weather will continue through this week as high pressure remains entrenched across eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. High pressure will continue to build southward into New England tonight, resulting in clearing skies and light winds. The result will be another chilly night, especially in the Adirondacks where lows in the lower to mid 30s and areas of frost are expected. The high will remain in place Wednesday and Wednesday night, keeping skies mostly clear and the weather dry. The dry weather will continue through this period as the weather will be dominated by high pressure centered over Quebec.
321 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure remains largely in control over northern New England through the end of week. Sunny and warmer on Wednesday with high pressure in control. Overview: Dry in the extended with dominant high pressure over or near the region.
227 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are sunny as high pressure continues a slow eastward trek through the central Plains. With high pressure north of the CWA, the wind regime is east-northeasterly up to the 10-20 mph range at times. The latest mid level water vapor imagery and RAP40 500mb analysis are showing the upper ridge to our west continuing an easterly move into the Plains. This ridge will continue a role for the CWA's wx through the entire short term period.
The amplifying ridge has allowed for clear skies and temperatures to continue to rise across the Mid-South.
A large upper level trough will be very slow-moving much of the forecast period, and it will likely remain far enough west to prevent much in the way of well- organized thunderstorm activity.
Afternoon temperatures trend from the mid 90s across most locations to around 100 degrees along the Rio Grande while the overnight lows will remain common in the low to mid 70s. For the Island, afternoon highs trend in the upper 80s while the overnight lows only fall to the low 80s.
Much of northeast Minnesota will be a few degrees cooler Wednesday with strong onshore easterly flow.
201 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure over Quebec will sag southwards across northern New England during the course of the week.
Cirrus shield over the fcst area but clearing of the high clouds is occurring south central into southeast ND and this will progress quicky east but then likey followed by additional high clouds from Wyoming and western South Dakota. Much milder airmass tonight and enough wind to keep temperatures significantly warmer than past nights. Mild Sunday as winds turn more southwest and while the 850 mb thermal ridge is past a bit more favorable wind direction should help with mixing with aftn highs upper 20s to low 30s. Overview: The low pressure system traveling to our may bring low winter impacts south of I-94 and North Central region of Minnesota.
Temperatures from the upper 20s along the Nature Coast to the low to upper 30s southward are expected, while breezy winds gradually decrease overnight.
(The rest of tonight) Temperatures are expected to be warmer tonight than last night as southerly winds pick up overnight and high clouds stream overhead.
(This afternoon through Sunday) High pressure across the Mississippi River Valley will build eastward tonight as a low pressure system moves up the eastern seaboard. The gradient will remain tight for the remainder of the afternoon and early evening but should begin to relax overnight as the high center moves overhead.
Overnight, the low centered off the mid-Atlantic coast will continue to move off to the north northeast, albeit slowly, and high pressure will settle into the southeastern states behind the front. Low temperatures across the islands overnight will vary about 10 degrees (give or take) from the upper Keys to the lower Keys. With the flow off the mainland overnight, it is likely the upper Keys could drop into the low 40s, with an outside change of upper 30s from north Key Largo to Ocean Reef. Overnight, winds will begin to diminish as high pressure builds over the southeastern states, and the front that pushed through the area yesterday moves off to the east.
Meanwhile, heights have been building aloft as the longwave trough continues to drift east over the Atlantic coast.
434 PM MST Sat Jan 14 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Plains with embedded short wave bringing some light precip to eastern MT/western ND, and an upper trof along the west coast. At the surface, broad trof covers the western Dakotas with downslope flow bringing very mild temps to the area.
The next issue on the horizon is the trough moving off the Pacific. This will continue to push the ridge east bringing lower heights and increasing cyclonic flow.
730 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2023 Aviation -Dry weather into Sunday night An area of high pressure over Arkansas today will track northeast along the Appalachians into Sunday.
A lee trough will continue to deepen into a lee low through the next 24 hours. The winds are expected to be less downslope and weaker farther north, so here cooler lows in the 30s are expected. For the fire danger tomorrow, dewpoints do increase through the day as the low deepens even with the mixing.
645 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2023 (Through Sunday) We'll remain in a similar pattern as today heading into tomorrow as high pressure settles over the region.
The upper low will rapidly move across central Colorado during the afternoon hours with weak to moderate QG ascent (10-20mb/hr) with the strongest forcing across south central and into east central Colorado Sunday afternoon.
606 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2023 High pressure will build over the region for the rest of this weekend.
Upper ridge axis in the Upper Mississippi Valley is marked by the leading edge of a respectable cirrus shield. Tranquil weather is expected for the next 24 hrs under this ridging. Modest return flow develops on Sunday with the ridging just retreating into the Appalachians, and with a decent amount of sunshine temps will recover to a few degrees above climo.
658 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2023 High pressure will only slowly build in from the west. Temperatures will start to get back to warmer-than-normal levels on Sunday.
622 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023 (This evening through Sunday) A deep trough was to our east over the Carolinas while amplified ridging was over the Southern and Central Plains.
With a building ridge and stabilization overnight, these clouds should be gone by the morning, but high clouds will be increasing. Temperatures begin to rebound back near normal, and potentially slightly above normal near Chattanooga, as southwesterly boundary layer flow begins to advect warmer air late in afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure keeps us dry during the short term.
937 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2023 Northwest flow snow has started to fizzle out over the mountains and should come to an end for all of the High Country by tonight.
543 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023 The milder temperatures and gusty south winds will continue on Sunday in advance of the approaching western conus upper trof as it moves east over the Colorado Rockies Sunday afternoon.
(Tonight) A pretty tranquil evening across the Tennessee Valley with the only weather of note being some scattered bands of high cirrus clipping the area around the edge of a broad area of high pressure. These clouds will have little impact on temperatures overnight as we expect them to continue to drop off in this cool, dry air mass -- bottoming out in the low to mid 20s by early Sunday morning. However, a very shallow layer of moisture near the surface will be sufficient to allow for the development of patchy freezing fog late tonight into early Sunday morning.
1229 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 Much cooler and drier air will dominate the area this weekend.
An area of low pressure will develop along the lee of the Rockies late Sunday and begin to advect moisture northward across the central CONUS. Surface temperatures will be critical for any type of freezing precipitation that forms near the surface. However, based on the amount of warmer air surging northward, and the added affect of latent heat, should be enough to limit the amount of freezing precipitation to only an hour or two at the start of this event. Uncertainties still exist but it looks as though most of the precipitation will be in the form of light rain/light drizzle, mixed with light freezing drizzle/light snow over the higher terrain across west central/central MN.
First off, ridging across the central CONUS keeps skies quiet for the next couple of days.
1049 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023 (Tonight) A pretty tranquil evening across the Tennessee Valley with the only weather of note being some scattered bands of high cirrus clipping the area around the edge of a broad area of high pressure. These clouds will have little impact on temperatures overnight as we expect them to continue to drop off in this cool, dry air mass -- bottoming out in the low to mid 20s by early Sunday morning. However, a very shallow layer of moisture near the surface will be sufficient to allow for the development of patchy freezing fog late tonight into early Sunday morning.
As high pressure begins to dominate, a quiet weather pattern will persist. Radiational cooling will aid in dropping temperatures to at or below, freezing for many areas this morning. Sunday night holds potential for another round of freezing temperature, but mainly for our northern counties.
339 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 Much cooler and drier air will dominate the area this weekend.
(Today through Monday) An upper level ridge axis extends over East Texas and the flow over our CWA has become southwesterly. Temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees warmer and dewpoints are 15 to 20 degrees higher than 24 hours ago. High temperatures today will be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Low temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today in this area. A weak cold front will move across north and central Texas Monday.
1234 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure becomes centered over the region tonight and Sunday before departing to the east on Monday.
This did result in a slight reduction in minimum temperatures in a few locations, but otherwise tonight's forecast is in good shape as high pressure maintains a quiet weather pattern across the area. This is the last day of pleasant, seasonal temperatures as ridging slides eastward tonight and southerly winds begin again. Tomorrow will be a quite a few degrees warmer, along with increasing moisture which will be signaled by clouds developing and passing over from the south.
For tonight, favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow temperatures to drop to near or below freezing for most of the region with areas of frost as well. The exception will be for areas along the panhandle coast where slightly warmer low temperatures are expected.
An associated surface warm front will lift into the region during the predawn hours Monday. A final round of showers will accompanying the trailing surface cold front that will will move through the region during the late afternoon and evening.
Northwest flow aloft for the high plains with leeside troughing over eastern Colorado. South winds will become more southwesterly as the aforementioned leeside troughing deepens over eastern Colorado due to increasing divergence aloft off the Rockies. Cooler highs are expected Monday in the wake of a passing weather system. Some minor good news is that the fire danger Monday will be lower with the cooler conditions.
1138 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023 The milder temperatures and gusty south winds will continue on Sunday in advance of the approaching western conus upper trof as it moves east over the Colorado Rockies Sunday afternoon. The developing closed low is still expected to take a northern track relatively to our forecast area with the surface cyclone moving from north central Kansas into Iowa on Monday.
839 PM MST Sat Jan 14 2023 Weak upper level ridging between a weather disturbance lifting NE into the Canadian Prairies and the next area of moisture moving out of the low off the west coast has brought some partial clearing to the area with mid to high level clouds increasing from SW to NE again later tonight. Additionally, cooler air will begin to move southward from Canada into the northern portions of our CWA overnight as well.
250 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 * Quiet weather through tonight with warming temperatures An upper ridge will move across central Indiana today into this evening. At the surface, high pressure will move farther to the east of the area. High clouds will continue to flow across the ridge through today, but the lower atmosphere will be quite dry. Overnight, deeper southwest flow will allow mid level clouds to thicken, but the low levels will remain dry. Will go with partly cloudy skies today with the high clouds moving through, and will bring in mostly cloudy conditions tonight as the mid level moisture moves in. Clouds and southeast winds will allow for a warmer night tonight, with lows mainly in the lower to middle 30s.
129 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2023 Current surface map places weak trough across western South Dakota with temperatures in the 30s/lower 40s. Warm nose aloft may result in a few hours of freezing rain across south central South Dakota tonight, with <0. Further north, low stratus spreading into northwest South Dakota may present a small threat of freezing drizzle. Weak shear, lack of dry air above moist surface based layer, and potential for seeding will act to minimize freezing drizzle. For now, will leave mention of freezing drizzle out of the forecast for northwest South Dakota but will introduce some freezing fog.
1238 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 Dry conditions along with seasonably chilly temperatures are expected into Sunday as high pressure moves across the region.
341 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure will prevail through the rest of the weekend before drifting east on Monday.
Ridging both at the surface and aloft will result in quiet weather conditions tonight. At the surface, the ridge will slide east of the area late and southerly winds will begin to kick in. -Dry weather into Sunday night An area of high pressure over Arkansas today will track northeast along the Appalachians into Sunday. the left front quadrant of an upper level jet will be situated over the low level jet. While the lower levels will be dry initially. As the low levels wet bulb down. Also it is possible that surface temperatures may rise above freezing before the precipitation arrives which would alter the areal coverage of impacts.
247 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023 (Issued 247 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023) Today through Monday: Low pressure will deepen over southeastern Colorado today, keeping strong warm and moist advection in place across the region today and tonight. The center of the low is expected to be near Omaha on Monday morning, and will reach the La Crosse area by evening.
The upper low will rapidly move across central Colorado during the afternoon hours with weak to moderate QG ascent (10-20mb/hr) with the strongest forcing across south central and into east central Colorado Sunday afternoon. A weak upper trough will continue moving across the CWA Sunday evening followed by weak upper ridging the rest of Sunday night through Monday night.
1050 PM MST Sat Jan 14 2023 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Weak upper level ridging between a weather disturbance lifting NE into the Canadian Prairies and the next area of moisture moving out of the low off the west coast has brought some partial clearing to the area with mid to high level clouds increasing from SW to NE again later tonight. Additionally, cooler air will begin to move southward from Canada into the northern portions of our CWA overnight as well.
Tonight and Sunday Low clouds were doing a better job of breaking up this afternoon with the dry air winning out and helping to mix the moisture trapped below the low level inversion. While the low clouds have cleared in many places, middle and high clouds are starting to drift in from the west. Went on the warmer side of guidance with lows in the low to middle 20s.
303 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure will continue the cool and dry weather for Sunday.
This will help shift the high clouds over our northeast to our east resulting in clear skies over the CWA the remainder of the night. Lows will fall again near freezing in the W to mid-upper 20s in the E Sun morning. Sunday: As mean ridge axis shifts E over the SE states/Atlantic seaboard, low-level return flow & WAA settle in. Increased moisture in the low-levels will bring some low clouds for areas along & W of the MS River corridor, with most moving in by late aftn to evening. With an unfavorable air mass, severe potential is little to none for this trough however, isolated storms can't be ruled out.
(Today) High pressure stretching from Indiana and Ohio south through Mississippi and Alabama will shift east today. After a cold start in the 20s, temperatures will warm into the lower to middle 50s in valley areas and upper 40s atop the higher Cumberland Plateau locations.
Skies will be clear and winds will be light east of I-49 closer to the exiting high pressure area.
1206 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 Upper level ridge axis still upstream continues to support generally clear skies overhead aside from some occasional streamers of thin high cirrus. Intervals of high cloud continue through the daytime hours but strong static stability and high pressure influence maintain VFR through the TAF period. Meanwhile, heights have been building aloft as the longwave trough continues to drift east over the Atlantic coast. The next low pressure system will begin to affect the region late Monday.
Temperatures will gradually increase over the next few days as ridge builds to our west.
Sunday, an advancing trough moves into the area throughout the day. The northern counties will again be in cloud cover resulting in cooler temperatures perhaps struggling to get out of the 30s for highs. A quick warmup is expected Monday with highs in the 40s to the low 50s across the southeast.
75 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Sunday) A deep trough was to our east over the Carolinas while amplified ridging was over the Southern and Central Plains.
(Today and tonight) Key Message: Slick/icy roads in shaded areas are possible this morning as below freezing temperatures may cause wet roads to freeze. Discussion: Currently we're sitting on the eastern edge of a ridge building in from the west today. With subfreezing temperatures expected area wide this morning any remaining wet roads from snow melt could have some slick or icy patches, especially before sunrise. With the ridge building in we'll begin a warming trend with temperatures around 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Quiet weather will continue tonight with slightly warmer, but still sub freezing temperatures expected overnight.
306 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 Temperatures will gradually increase over the next few days as ridge builds to our west.
1040 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023 (The rest of tonight) Temperatures are expected to be warmer tonight than last night as southerly winds pick up overnight and high clouds stream overhead.
Will hedge the forecast on the windier side and issue a wind advisory for much of the forecast area, with exception of far southeast OK and the lower elevations of Arkansas River valley.