Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We will see a concentrated area of rain moving through late tonight and tomorrow morning especially over Central Lower Michigan near and north of a surface warm front. -Showers and Thunderstorms Likely Friday- A cold front is expected to traverse the area Friday afternoon bringing showers and a chance of thunderstorms to lower Michigan.
309 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Key Messages: - Freezing drizzle possible in the far western CWA through midday. Freezing drizzle has been observed west of the CWA, or west of Stanly and Jones County. Will continue monitoring obs and add freezing drizzle as needed. An area of low pressure and upper level trough will progress across the region later this afternoon and through the overnight hours. A brief period, an hour or two, of freezing rain and sleet still appears possible before changing over to all snow from west to east this afternoon and tonight. Winds will increase from the northwest behind the low pressure system later tonight and into the morning hours on Friday.
Breezy and cooler weather will continue through the end of the week, becoming colder and windier over the weekend.
(Today through Friday) This persistent pattern looks to stay around through the short- term period as upper-level ridging meanders over the northern Gulf. This has mostly kept our fog development at bay as the high winds help to mix out the boundary layer enough. The profile suggests that these showers will be no more than just showers as we remain too warm aloft from the ridge to promote more robust storm development. The ridge will still be in place over us, so expect much of the same conditions as today, except winds slightly less than Thursday.
With high pressure in place over the Carolinas, our area is in a southeast flow which has allowed moisture to come off the Atlantic and funnel enough in to cause the BKN/OVC low clouds to make their way into the area and cover much of north and central GA. Looking at tomorrow, the same story is expected with the lower CIGS in the morning with the potential for areas of patchy fog considering the southeasterly flow of moisture.
Breezy and cooler weather will continue through the end of the week, becoming colder and windier over the weekend. As the trough starts to approach from the west, we should see some clouds develop across the region as we head into Thursday. With a tightening gradient as the trough moves into the region, expect winds will be gusty through the afternoon on Thursday but drop off towards the evening and overnight hours. A low pressure center located over New Mexico will continue to exit to the east today and tomorrow which will be followed by another longwave trough axis that will traverse the western CONUS but well to the north through the rest of the week. Main forecast focus will be this weekend as a much stronger, more amplified trough pushes into the area from the northwest.
249 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 A few showers along the NY Thruway will dissipate later this morning with high pressure building in.
115 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 High pressure will modify while extending across the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through the end of the week. Thus the flow aloft will shift from NW to more W/SW, helping a few high clouds spill around the periphery of the ridge overnight. At the surface, high pressure extends SW from the western Atlantic into NC. The mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico will largely remain anchored on Thursday setting up similar dry and warming temperatures.
242 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 High pressure provides dry and unseasonably mild weather today. A cold front will promote an increasing chance for showers over the weekend, and may stall for a time. A high pressure system will remain in control of the weather today, providing unseasonably mild and dry weather. The high pressure center that has been graciously giving us a nice dry and settled break this week will shift south slightly. One in particular, on Friday will be a subtle cold front associated with its parent low pressure system traversing northeast through Canada.
As has been advertised for the past several model runs, a cold front will get pulled southward into central Illinois behind the departing wave on Friday. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s in the Illinois River Valley to the lower 80s east of I-57.
Tonight through Friday night, weak forcing, increasing moisture, and the approach and passage of a cold frontal boundary through the forecast area will result in intervals of scattered light shower activity. A wide range in lows from the upper 40s near Mount Vernon to the lower 60s near Hopkinsville is expected Friday night as the cold front passes through.
This is associated with a warm front that will lift north towards US-10 later this morning. North of the front we see widespread fog as one would expect north of a warm front. The final round of precipitation, associated with a seasonably strong cold front, will traverse the area Friday afternoon and exit by early Friday night. Forecast soundings indicate strong unidirectional southwesterly flow in the lower troposphere with a suggestion of incipient dry slotting. This could end up as a cold frontal rainband with marginally severe wind gusts thanks to downward momentum flux associated with moderately large values of ML Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE).
This will lead to the development of another lee cyclone in southeastern Colorado which will help to tighten the surface pressure gradient across the forecast area resulting in breezy southerly to southwesterly winds this afternoon. These downsloping winds along with sunny skies will help to boost high temperatures back into the low to mid 80s.
We will remain locked in a moisture heavy southwesterly flow in the low levels, which will be filled with weak disturbances and lift from from a LLJ and pockets of WAA. While an isolated storm cannot be ruled out, conditional lapse rates due to the high moisture content will not make for a large variety of particle types for charge separation. Key Messages: 1) Strong cold front arrives Friday with temperatures dropping well below normal beginning this weekend.
Stubborn high pressure north of our CWA near the Cape Hatteras area does nudge slightly further south through the day today.
1143 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 (This evening through Thursday Night) Despite drier air aloft due to the influence of the ridge to our east, deep low level Gulf moisture continues to filter in this afternoon.
158 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 High pressure across the Carolinas will continue to provide warm southwesterly flow and above normal temperatures through the remainder of the workweek. For the short term period, many of the big picture themes remain the same as high pressure is still well established along the East Coast. Temperatures are well above average once again, and thin cirrus should allow for a more even spread to the high temperatures. Broad southwesterly flow will continue into Friday across the Ohio Valley ahead of a cold front sagging slowly southeast toward the area.
1150 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 00Z upper air analysis places an upper-level ridge centered off the Florida Gulf Coast while an upper-level low is located near the Sonora/Chihuahua Mexican provinces. Meanwhile, 00Z upper air soundings continue to indicate a substantial amount of dry air present over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) Drier air aloft is intruding over majority of the Panhandles this afternoon ahead of an approaching upper level low. As lift from the low arrives, there's a slight chance (20-30%) there could be some additional showery/convective development in the southeast as we head towards the evening. Later this evening, there could be some wrap around moisture behind the low that may have enough energy to produce weak showers over E New Mexico, but expect any of this activity to dissipate as/before it reaches the western Panhandles. Clearing skies and warming 850mb temps will also help afternoon highs rise into the low to mid 80s.
An upper ridge axis extends from the associated high in the northern Gulf northeastward through the Carolinas. The ridge will remain persistant but some veering in regard to the axis will occur. The cold front will attempt to make some eastward progress and we could see some pre frontal forcing into our western counties as early as Friday.
320 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Forecast showcases more of the same for today as the Ohio Valley remains under the influence of deep southwest flow nestled between a large upper ridge to our southwest and upper low working over the Intermountain West. The southwest flow will continue to keep us well above seasonal normals with highs once again approaching 80 degrees, even with the high overcast expected for today. Rain chances look to be mainly scattered with most of the overnight dry and mild with lows in the low to mid 60s.
102 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 High pressure provides dry and unseasonably mild weather today. A cold front will promote an increasing chance for showers over the weekend, and may stall for a time. A high pressure system will remain in control of the weather today, providing unseasonably mild and dry weather. Upper level ridging will begin the process of flattening for the end of the work week, making way for a cold front knocking on our doorstep to the west.
1135 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 Added lower-end POPs across much of the CWA for this evening with a few streamer showers developing in the low level southeasterly flow.
High pressure over the eastern seaboard will maintain stout to breezy onshore flow today. Onshore flow and cloud cover will keep highs this afternoon near- normal, in the lower 80s.
651 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 High pressure extending from the mid Atlantic to the southeast U. High pressure at the surface and aloft will extend from the mid Atlantic to the southeast U. Although record highs will be safe (in the lower 80s), it will remain very warm for late October with highs in the 70s. The strong anomalous ridge to our southeast will begin to show signs of flattening as we head into the weekend. It will remain very warm overnight with lows in the lower 60s. On Friday, a large scale mid level trough will be digging southeast into the northern Plains. This will begin the process of suppressing strong ridge to our southeast. A slow moving cold front is likely to be approaching the area from the northwest on Friday night.
(Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Rain chances increase today and linger through tomorrow As the upper-level jet retreats northward through the short term, the mid-level trough will move northeastward across the Texas Panhandle swinging an area of vorticity across the region. Temperatures today and tomorrow are expected to range from the mid 80s to the lower 90s with tomorrow being the warmer day out of the two. Temperatures tonight will remain mild with overnight lows ranging from the lower to upper 70s.
/AJ/ High pressure remains the dominant feature in the short term, which will feature yet another day with much above average temperatures with highs in the upper 80s. As this high moves east, flow will turn SW, resulting in moist return flow, especially areas further north and west. Low temperatures will remain very warm, 70 degrees, across the NW where cloudcover will be greater, while in the east lows should dip into the low 60s and upper 50s with closer proximity to the high. This will create some potential for rain in the ArkLaMiss Delta Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. However, rain will be limited based on the positioning of the ridge cutting off instability from the low pressure system lifting out of the north central plains Thursday.
Forecast showcases more of the same for today as the Ohio Valley remains under the influence of deep southwest flow nestled between a large upper ridge to our southwest and upper low working over the Intermountain West. The southwest flow will continue to keep us well above seasonal normals with highs once again approaching 80 degrees, even with the high overcast expected for today. Rain chances look to be mainly scattered with most of the overnight dry and mild with lows in the low to mid 60s.
Afternoon high temperatures today will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
237 AM PDT Thu Oct 26 2023 The influence of two upper level low pressure troughs will bring a cooling trend to the forecast area through the weekend. The cyclonic flow around the trough will result in winds aloft from the west-northwest over the forecast area entering the weekend. In addition to the lower temperatures, northwesterly flow in the lower levels will bring cloudier conditions to the southern areas of the central valley through midday today, but will clear for the afternoon.
540 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 High pressure provides dry and unseasonably mild weather today. A cold front will promote an increasing chance for showers over the weekend, and may stall for a time. A high pressure system will remain in control of the weather today, providing unseasonably mild and dry weather. The high pressure center that has been graciously giving us a nice dry and settled break this week will shift south slightly. One in particular, on Friday will be a subtle cold front associated with its parent low pressure system traversing northeast through Canada.
Strong surface ridging centered over the Mid- Atlantic region continues to drive fresh to strong northeast to east breezes.
631 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 (Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough moving east across the TX Panhandle. Ample moisture and lift ahead of the trough axis continues to bring bands of showers and isolated storms to the Northwest Hill Country and parts of the Heartland region. As the trough continues to push east, the rainfall should move east of our forecast area by sunrise today, ending the flash flood threat. With the decrease of clouds through the day today, expect a warmer day with highs in the low to mid 80s. Tonight, continued southerly flow in the low levels will result in moisture and low clouds moving back into the region tonight, so expect mild lows in the upper 60s.
Cool, dry conditions will close out the week with warmer and drier conditions this weekend under the influence of gusty offshore flow. Gentle offshore flow int he wake of yesterdays cold front has allowed for clear skies overnight. Strong radiational cooling combined with an arctic air mass advecting over the area has allowed very widespread freezing conditions overnight. As of the early morning hours, much of Trinity and interior Mendocino and northern Lake has already dipped below freezing. That said, recent precipitation has kept dewpoints well above freezing in these nearer shore valleys, forming widespread fog as seen on satellite and inhibiting frost formation along valley bottoms.
Dry conditions are expected across the CWA this afternoon and through the remainder of the short-term period, with much cooler temperatures.
A high pressure aloft will remain firmly entrenched over the area. With the high pressure and associated subsidence dominating, daytime highs will likely continue to rise into the low to mid 80s for most locations both today and Friday, with some upper 70s possible along the immediate beaches with the east to southeast flow off the Gulf moderating temperatures there slightly. Low temperatures will mainly be in the low to mid 60s across most of the area, but some upper 60s to lower 70s possible near and along the coast, again as a result of the moderating flow from off the Gulf of Mexico.
This morning's sounding is slightly cooler aloft than 24hrs ago, but looks like the boundary layer should deepen to about 850mb, and upstream 850 temps support mid 70s as well. Towards the end of the week the large ridge that has been parked over the region will begin to flatten as flow becomes increasingly zonal.
A upper level ridge will gradually build into the region Friday through the weekend for dry conditions and unseasonably cool temperatures.
544 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 High pressure remains the dominant feature in the short term, which will feature yet another day with much above average temperatures with highs in the upper 80s. As this high moves east, flow will turn SW, resulting in moist return flow, especially areas further north and west. Low temperatures will remain very warm, 70 degrees, across the NW where cloudcover will be greater, while in the east lows should dip into the low 60s and upper 50s with closer proximity to the high. This will create some potential for rain in the ArkLaMiss Delta Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. However, rain will be limited based on the positioning of the ridge cutting off instability from the low pressure system lifting out of the north central plains Thursday.
High temperatures later today should warm into the lower 80s under mostly sunny skies.
This forecast period begins with our next upper level trof axis located overhead the eastern Washington State/Oregon/Idaho border. Upstream, a strong North Pacific upper level ridge builds along the Unites States and Canadian west coast. An Upper level closed area of lower heights continues north northeast of the Hudson Bay, and trofs continue to rotate cyclonically around this area of lower heights.
601 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 (Today through Friday) High pressure sliding to our northeast will continue to provide southeasterly flow into the region. A front will try to approach the area but will be halted by the ridge in place, over the Eastern CONUS Lows, and never make it into the area during the short term. There should be more in the clouds over the next few days during the afternoons, so temperatures will remain around the same, albeit much warmer than normal.
A broad anticyclone centered over the Eastern Seaboard supports strong northeast to east breezes across the Keys this morning. The southern flank of this high features stripes of low-level moisture convergence, roughly aligned along regular wind surges. Water vapor imagery highlights an anticyclonic wave break to the west of Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy. The interaction of Tammy with the mid to upper level trough axis will control the sensible weather elements over the weekend. The southern flank of the trough may close off and retrograde to the west-northwest through the Bahamas. Another solution suggests the trough will wrap-up and phase with Tammy, with any closed-off pieces retrograding much further to the south.
632 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 (Today through Friday) This persistent pattern looks to stay around through the short- term period as upper-level ridging meanders over the northern Gulf. This has mostly kept our fog development at bay as the high winds help to mix out the boundary layer enough. The profile suggests that these showers will be no more than just showers as we remain too warm aloft from the ridge to promote more robust storm development. The ridge will still be in place over us, so expect much of the same conditions as today, except winds slightly less than Thursday.
Higher likelihood for clear skies across the lowest 5000 ft today. Thus, most of southeast Michigan should be solidly in the warm sector this afternoon, supporting temperatures back into the low to mid 70s based off 925 MB temps reaching up 18 C. And with the mid level drying occuring over southeast Michigan Friday morning, assuming some breaks develop in the low clouds ahead of the approaching cold front during the day, it does appear max temperatures will rise well into the 70s. The cold front is on track to move through Friday evening, and with the low level convergence and surface based capes around 500 J/kg, convective showers/isolated thunderstorms are likely.
High pressure continues across the region at the surface and aloft with NE/E winds increasing and becoming gusty in the afternoon.
908 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 High pressure extending from the mid Atlantic to the southeast U. Southwest flow will continue across the Ohio Valley today with strong high pressure centered across the southeastern US. The strong anomalous ridge to our southeast will begin to show signs of flattening as we head into the weekend. It will remain very warm overnight with lows in the lower 60s. On Friday, a large scale mid level trough will be digging southeast into the northern Plains. This will begin the process of suppressing strong ridge to our southeast. A slow moving cold front is likely to be approaching the area from the northwest on Friday night.
435 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 High pressure remains the dominant feature in the short term, which will feature yet another day with much above average temperatures with highs in the upper 80s. As this high moves east, flow will turn SW, resulting in moist return flow, especially areas further north and west. Low temperatures will remain very warm, 70 degrees, across the NW where cloudcover will be greater, while in the east lows should dip into the low 60s and upper 50s with closer proximity to the high. This will create some potential for rain in the ArkLaMiss Delta Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. However, rain will be limited based on the positioning of the ridge cutting off instability from the low pressure system lifting out of the north central plains Thursday.
A quick moving 500mb low pressure area embedded within southwest flow aloft will exit the area this morning. High temperatures are forecast to range from the lower to middle 50s from Burlington and Goodland to McCook north to the lower 70s from Kit Carson to Tribune/Leoti/Gove south. A cold front moves through the area tonight with northerly winds gusting up to 50 mph. Low temperatures drop into the lower 20s to lower 30s.
642 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 A few showers along the NY Thruway will dissipate later this morning with high pressure building in.
Warm weather persists with highs about 10 degrees above normal as high pressure and ridging continues. Our area of high pressure will shift slightly further east today, providing an increase in southwest flow compared to yesterday.
713 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Key Messages: - Freezing drizzle possible in the far western CWA through midday. Freezing drizzle has been observed west of the CWA, or west of Stanly and Jones County. Will continue monitoring obs and add freezing drizzle as needed. An area of low pressure and upper level trough will progress across the region later this afternoon and through the overnight hours. A brief period, an hour or two, of freezing rain and sleet still appears possible before changing over to all snow from west to east this afternoon and tonight. Winds will increase from the northwest behind the low pressure system later tonight and into the morning hours on Friday.
Maximum wet bulb temperatures aloft have become well below freezing, so no more freezing rain concerns.
Overnight satellite imagery reveals a broad swath of moisture extending from southern Idaho through Lemhi County into southwest and west-central Montana, linked to a trough and a low-pressure center advancing into the region. As the trough and low-pressure system gradually shift eastward this morning, we anticipate a reduction in persistent snow coverage from west to east. Following the eastward movement of the trough axis, the snow is expected to transition to a more showery nature this afternoon. Subsequently, much drier air will follow the trough on Friday.
930 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023 A few showers along the NY Thruway will dissipate later this morning with high pressure building in.
632 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 (Today through Friday Night ) An upper level high is over the southeast U. with an upper low over the Plains. The upper low will move into the Great Lakes tonight. Another upper trough will enter the northern U. Friday night as the upper high remains strong over the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure continues over the area and southwest flow continues to bring moisture into western Arkansas. A cold front in the Plains is poised to move south toward Arkansas.