Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
236 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Once clouds give way this evening, high pressure will keep much of the cloud cover at bay through Wednesday.
142 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Low pressure tracks from western Kentucky to the central Appalachians this afternoon and evening then offshore after midnight. The associated cold front will provide showers and thunderstorms, with heavy rain and stronger storms. Dry weather is expected Wednesday as high pressure builds in. Will see a band of strong westerlies work southward through this evening across the central Appalachians and VA and coincide with a weak lee trough and approaching cold front to allow for convection to ramp up. Around mid week we will be transitioning from being at the base of a trough to being under weak ridging.
High pressure will keep conditions dry today. Messy upper ridging with heights in the 570s will hold warmer air in the region, so highs will climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s today and Wednesday. An upper trough and a weak sfc front will move through late Wednesday afternoon from west to east.
WEDNESDAY: Expect a slight warmup as a stout upper low treks south to near the international border and induces warm air advection and southerly flow across the Northern Plains. Given the propensity for some sites to warm faster than expected today, nudged highs up a few degrees to result in highs mostly in the low to mid 80s.
/Issued 119 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023/ /Through Wednesday/ A cold front has passed through North and Central Texas, introducing north winds and milder temperatures while slowly reducing the humidity. Insolation will be somewhat offset by lingering cold advection in the low-levels. The result will be daytime temperatures warmer than Tuesday but still below normal in many areas.
313 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Discussion/Marine/FireWeather - Dry cold frontal passage through late afternoon The cold front up around Cadillac was dropping steadily southward. - Some Frost Possible Up North Tonight The atmosphere behind this cold front will be cooler and continued dry.
At the surface, a slow-moving cold front was located southeast over the Hill Country. Tonight through tomorrow morning, some upper-level ridging should build in across west central Texas.
High pressure will continue to move toward the southeast Tonight, as a front approaches from the northwest.
On Wednesday, a trough dropping through eastern Canada will push a cold front southward into the region. The front will roughly bisect the area tomorrow afternoon, focusing the highest coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the southern two thirds or so of the area.
Look for a near repeat for Wednesday as weak ridging persists over the region.
1224 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) This morning an upper ridge extends from Srn NV/CA eastward to the Atlantic Coast as a trough extends from the Great Lakes down through MO and AR. This trough will expand down across E TX today then drift east into LA Wednesday. Also on Wednesday a low off of Baja will deepen into a closed low as it wobbles south. Temperatures today are expected to be very similar to yesterday with highs in the lower 80s across the Permian Basin with higher values from SE NM down through the Upper Trans Pecos. Pops decrease tonight then return Wednesday over the higher elevations from SE NM down across the mtns to the Rio Grande.
329 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 As of 15Z surface analysis, a warm front is draped across the CWA. Along with that front, showers and thunderstorms have developed along the surface warm front tornadic supercells are starting to form but tornadoes remain to be limited. Instability around 1,500 J/kg of CAPE, effective bulk shear around 50 knots, theta-e difference around 25C with DCAPE around 900 J/kg and high PWats would largely support damaging wind as the line closely associated with the cold front. However, with the ridge in place, cooler air is in the region; therefore, temperatures will be cooler for Wednesday but staying dry.
The moist airmass moved into Arizona over the weekend and remains trapped under a weak flow regime mainly dominated by high pressure spread across much of the western U. High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal, while low temperatures will run warmer than normal thanks to the moisture and increased cloud cover. A weak area of low pressure currently off the California/Baja coast is forecast to track eastward and along the Mexico border later this week and through the weekend. most numerous over the higher terrain.
Surface observations as of 1 PM PDT show temperatures trending around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, generally in the mid 80s to low 90s in the Valley and lower foothills, and in the 60s to 80s in the upper foothills and mountains. Portions of the Central Valley are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Upper level ridging will build today and continue to influence the area this week, allowing for warm and dry conditions to prevail.
The area remains under a baggy trough and some weak upper level divergence that will bring the continuation of isolated to scattered convection. Showers and storms should become more widespread on Wednesday as a cold front moves north to south across the area. This event could continue into the overnight hours as well as moisture continues to feed into the area ahead of an advancing trough.
Central California remains under the general influence of a ridge of high pressure aloft centered near western Canada, which is creating unseasonably warm conditions across our area.
131 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Cold front dropped south through the region today, kicking off a period of cloud cover near Lake Superior and gusty winds CWA-wide. The drier airmass will allow for a colder night then last, and most areas in the interior are expected to dip into the low 30s or high 20s.
Localized ascent under the disturbance will offer some scattered showers and storms over the Lower Trans Pecos while further west will utilize topographic and thermal enhancement (1000 J/kg SBCAPE) to generate some scattered convection over the Davis Mtns and Marfa Plateau.
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night) A line of thunderstorms has developed along a cold front to our north. Meso Analysis shows 1000-2000 j/kg of uncapped CAPE over the area and 0-6 km shear is expected to be 25-40 knots with the highest shear in eastern portions. Temperatures will cool some behind the front but the lower dew points will be much more noticable, we will see them go from the 60s to lower 70s today into the 50s.
With better flow aloft in the northern portion of our CWA, and the addition of an approaching cold front, expect storms to continue to develop well after the peak heating hours. Temperatures are expected to be much cooler than the past few days thanks to the help of the passing cold front along with some decent cloud cover. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s for much of our forecast area.
Considering light winds associated with incoming high pressure and today's wetting rain over the majority of the area, the potential for fog comes into question. To the north, winds will be slightly more enhanced ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front, and dewpoints will be lower, dampening the potential for fog formation. Although tomorrow will have a cool start to the morning, and despite the cold frontal passage, temperatures are expected to recover and peak in the upper 70s to low 80s.
118 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Aviation -- Dry Cold Front Today -- A large upper level low situated over north eastern Canada will dictate the weather pattern today. This upper level low will move southward driving a cold front across Michigan this afternoon and evening.
With the less favorable conditions for convection tomorrow as mid level ridging edges in, we only have a slight chance for some showers and thunderstorms late morning into the afternoon possibly from the seabreeze that may develop.
327 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Key Messages: *Warmer tomorrow with a chance for thunderstorms late tomorrow evening.
JEH/88 (Now through Wednesday) Ridging aloft continues to slowly erode bringing increasing rain chances to the region through the period. A series of troughs will dig into the eastern CONUS through the period, with the first one approaching this afternoon from the west with southwest flow aloft returning to the area and thus better moisture. This trough will slowly continue east through the period reaching our region by the short term period. As with most storms during this time of year, there is a potential for some gusty winds, especially given the weakening ridge today allowing for some deeper storms to development.
High pressure will be building southward out of Canada into the Great Lakes region late tonight into Wednesday, and this will push drier air into the PAH forecast area.
250 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Low pressure passing south over WV will bring a brief period of light rain through early evening south of I-70. A moisture-starved cold front will drop south across the region late tonight. While no precipitation is expected with frontal passage, cold advection behind the boundary should keep temperatures on the cooler side of normal by a few degrees on Wednesday. Radiational cooling with clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures overnight to drop into the 30s, possibly freezing north of I80. Dewpoints in the lower 20s should preclude any frost formation.
The highest coverage of storms will be across Baker County, OR including KBKE, the west- central Idaho mountains including KMYL, and south-central Idaho including KTWF/KJER.
819 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 A cold front will drop south out of Upstate New York and cross the region this evening through the overnight hours.
A late season cold front will be slipping south through central Alabama and central Georgia on Wednesday.
932 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 (Issued 919 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023) The pneumonia front has push through the remainder of the CWA leaving breezy northeasterly winds in its wake and much cooler temps. With mostly clear skies and winds easing into Wednesday morning, expecting overnight lows to still fall into the lower 40s and even upper 30s. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track with high pressure settling across the Great Lakes for Wednesday with filtered sunshine through smoke from the Canadian wildfires. Tomorrow, persistent east winds will keep us cooler, but there should be a bit of sunshine to start the day, before another batch of wildfire smoke leads to translucent skies.
924 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through Wednesday as a weak cold front moves across the Mid-South.
730 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Aviation - Dry cold frontal passage through late afternoon The cold front up around Cadillac was dropping steadily southward. - Some Frost Possible Up North Tonight The atmosphere behind this cold front will be cooler and continued dry.
Garcia Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday/ A cold front has passed through North and Central Texas, introducing north winds and milder temperatures while slowly reducing the humidity. Insolation will be somewhat offset by lingering cold advection in the low-levels. The result will be daytime temperatures warmer than Tuesday but still below normal in many areas.
Lingering weak upper level low pressure system continues to provide enough PVA to support lift across the higher terrain this evening, while the low levels depict a weak onshore flow setup as high pressure resides offshore and lower pressure continues inland. Above normal temperatures will continue through the work week as large scale high pressure persists across the region.
905 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Dry and generally seasonable weather is expected for the next several days with high pressure in place.
812 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 High pressure will keep much of the cloud cover at bay through Wednesday.
739 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Weakening broad ridging was positioned to our east aloft while a trough was to our west over the Lower Mississippi Region. Expect troughing to our west to continue to move closer to the area while the surface cold front advances southeast closer to our area. We will continue to experience the approaching mid level trough nearing the area from the west overnight while the cold front advances east into Western Mississippi. Lows will range from the low 60s far north to the upper 60s far south. A trough will move over the area Wednesday while the surface boundary pushes south into our southern counties Wednesday morning. Highs will range from the upper 70s far north and in the higher elevations east to readings in the mid 80s far south and southeast.
620 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through Wednesday as a weak cold front moves across the Mid-South.
A high pressure ridge well offshore will continue to produce northerly winds through the period. A weak high pressure ridge will continue over the coastal waters, providing northerly flow to most of the area through much of the period.
1048 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 A cold front will drop south out of Upstate New York and cross the region this evening through the overnight hours.
Above normal temperatures will continue through the work week as large scale high pressure persists across the region.
825 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 A cold front will move through overnight, bringing unsettled weather through tonight as the front crosses the region. This front will push to our south on Wednesday as high pressure begins to build in from the north, resulting in less humid and slightly cooler weather for late week. Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues through 1000 PM for the A couple of supercells continue along the NC/VA border, out ahead of the developing line of thunderstorms over the Foothills with the cold front. Skies will clear from north to south Wednesday as cold front settles across South Carolina. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than today as we will see dew points in the 50s everywhere by the afternoon.
The upper level low, currently centered over northeast Oregon at 02z, will move southeast on Wednesday across the Central Mountains of Idaho.
Cool front/surface trof has backed its way into the far northeast corner of the CWA, where it will likely remain before being influenced by tomorrow's approaching cold front from the northwest.
805 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 A cold front will drop south out of Upstate New York and cross the region this evening through the overnight hours.
603 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Once clouds give way this evening, high pressure will keep much of the cloud cover at bay through Wednesday.
638 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) A line of thunderstorms has developed along a cold front to our north. Meso Analysis shows 1000-2000 j/kg of uncapped CAPE over the area and 0-6 km shear is expected to be 25-40 knots with the highest shear in eastern portions. Temperatures will cool some behind the front but the lower dew points will be much more noticable, we will see them go from the 60s to lower 70s today into the 50s.
955 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 A cold front will move through overnight, bringing unsettled weather through tonight as the front crosses the region. This front will push to our south on Wednesday as high pressure begins to build in from the north, resulting in less humid and slightly cooler weather for late week. Skies will clear from north to south Wednesday as cold front settles across South Carolina. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than today as we will see dew points in the 50s everywhere by the afternoon.
A cold front has moved into Middle Tennessee this evening. We have a nice day to look forward to for Wednesday, slightly cooler temps and especially lower humidity levels. (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) A line of thunderstorms has developed along a cold front to our north. Meso Analysis shows 1000-2000 j/kg of uncapped CAPE over the area and 0-6 km shear is expected to be 25-40 knots with the highest shear in eastern portions. Temperatures will cool some behind the front but the lower dew points will be much more noticable, we will see them go from the 60s to lower 70s today into the 50s.
Moisture streaming northward across eastern Nevada (from weak trough along the southern California coast), combined with a seasonably warm air mass has produced a conditionally unstable environment.
Key Messages: *Warmer tomorrow with a chance for thunderstorms late tomorrow evening.
The daytime high temperatures recorded today across the island chain ranged from the upper 80s to the low 90s. The presence of amorphous wind flow and mesoscale effects resulted in the occurrence of isolated precipitation in the Lower and Upper Keys, whereas other areas experienced mostly warm and dry conditions.
As of 15Z surface analysis, a warm front is draped across the CWA. Along with that front, showers and thunderstorms have developed along the surface warm front tornadic supercells are starting to form but tornadoes remain to be limited. Instability around 1,500 J/kg of CAPE, effective bulk shear around 50 knots, theta-e difference around 25C with DCAPE around 900 J/kg and high PWats would largely support damaging wind as the line closely associated with the cold front. However, with the ridge in place, cooler air is in the region; therefore, temperatures will be cooler for Wednesday but staying dry.
High pressure builds in today with northerly winds advecting drier air into the region. Discussion: The cold front is currently located across southeast Tennessee this morning. Temperatures are forecast to be near normal today as high pressure builds in and we have quasi- zonal flow aloft.
Marginally drier air remains in place over SE TX as light northerly surface winds along with the lack of LLJ moisture transport have prevailed as the midlevel trough responsible for recent convective activity has pushed off to the east. Overnight lows on Thursday will once again settle into the mid/upper 60s, with values along the immediate coast in the lower 70s.
414 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Cooler air will continue to spread across the area today keeping high temperatures limited to the 60s. Warmer weather is ahead Thursday with highs around 70 to 75. A cold front was moving across the area early this morning and was spreading cooler air into the region.
The area remains under a baggy trough and some weak upper level divergence that will bring the continuation of isolated to scattered convection. Showers and storms should become more widespread on Wednesday as a cold front moves north to south across the area. This event could continue into the overnight hours as well as moisture continues to feed into the area ahead of an advancing trough. The trough hangs over the area into Thursday as well, so more showers and storms will be likely on this day. With more cloud cover and the cold front passage, temperatures will be somewhat cooler for Wednesday and Thursday than today.
407 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023 High pressure builds in from the north today, then settles over the local area tonight night into Thursday.
336 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today and tonight.
Then, near- sfc smoke may fill in from the northwest on the post-frontal flow with the upper trough/low coming down from Canada. Behind the front on Thursday, much cooler air will filter in with highs only in the 60s. Some showers or an isolated thunderstorm may linger east of the James Valley on Thursday as the upper trough dips into the east.
Warm and dry conditions will continue this week under high pressure resulting in areas of moderate heat risk in the Central Valley as warmest areas reach the lower to mid 90s.
340 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Discussion/Marine/FireWeather --Frost/freeze possible the next few days-- A large upper level low with a corresponding trough extending through the mid Atlantic will continue to move eastward. As this system exits a high pressure system will build over the Great Lakes. The exiting cold front will allow for highs in the 60s today increasing to the low 70s tomorrow. The high pressure, clear skies and calm winds will couple with cold overnight lows to allow for a chance of patchy frost and potentially freezing temperatures mainly along and north of the US 10 corridor.
1123 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through Wednesday as a weak cold front moves across the Mid-South.
Key Messages: *Warmer tomorrow with a chance for thunderstorms late tomorrow evening. *Cold front Thursday with continued thunderstorm chances.
These mostly clear skies will last through the morning hours before giving way to increasing clouds as showers and storms fire off the higher terrain. The cold front mentioned above will near the WY/CO border by tomorrow morning. Showers and storms will fire off the higher terrain, with the main threats being gusty winds and lightning, and to a lesser extent hail and heavy rain. A deep trough moving over the Great Lakes pushes a front into the region that looks to get hung up along the Front Range.
Highs should rebound well into the 70s Thursday afternoon, though slight easterly component to the sfc flow will allow a weak lake breeze to form along IL shore keeping temps there cooler (60s).
The trough axis will slide east of the region after sunrise this morning. Meanwhile, high pressure remains intact across the district. The combination of the frontal boundary proximity and weak high pressure in place will keep winds light and variable through the rest of the morning, turning more easterly in the afternoon and evening. Mid-level ridging continues to build tonight and into Thursday with the ridge axis shifting overhead by midday Thursday. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer over the next 36-48 hours, with daytime highs reaching the upper 80s/near 90 degrees (lower-90s near Falcon Lake, mid-80s at SPI ) today under partly cloudy skies. Expect highs a couple degrees warmer on Thursday.
Weak cold front is now starting to move into north GA. On Wednesday, a trough dropping through eastern Canada will push a cold front southward into the region. The front will roughly bisect the area tomorrow afternoon, focusing the highest coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the southern two thirds or so of the area.
310 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023 Two main concerns for today: Canadian wildfire smoke and an approaching cold front. And it goes hand-in-hand with the cold front as well. Smoke will be present aloft in the morning hours of Wednesday, but once the afternoon rolls around and the cold front starts sagging into our area, we will begin to see the front push the smoke down closer to the surface. Temperatures will be lower after the cold front, in the mid 50s and mid 60s for highs. 500 mb pattern will feature a NW flow over our area with an upper ridge into Idaho, Montana into Alberta.
A portion of the northern Bluegrass as well as near Madison, IN may be a touch cooler with highs in the lower 70s. Tonight, cooler and drier air will be in place. Mostly clear skies with lows ranging from the low/mid 40s in the Bluegrass to the lower 50s in southern KY.
Seasonal temperatures are expected today with highs generally in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s.
202 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023 A cold front pushes off the coast overnight. High pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday, and settles over the area Wednesday night into Thursday.
Meanwhile, a broad upper trough over eastern Texas will make headway in this direction, providing some modest large-scale lift on Wednesday. A late season cold front will be slipping south through central Alabama and central Georgia on Wednesday.
142 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023 A cold front will drop south across the region late this evening through the overnight hours.
There may be a slight cool down next Wednesday, with highs expected in the high 80's.
* HAZY SKIES FROM FIRE SMOKE TODAY - cooler too. The region is under the influence of high pressure today, but fires in Canada continue to spread smoke southeast across the upper mississippi river valley.