Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
620 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Through tonight: Isolated showers continue to move across the area this afternoon in advance of a cold front that is still situated just to our west from the ArkLaTex into the Mid South.
804 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Rain returns tonight and continues through Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
Mid evening surface analysis had the cold front dropping into northwest Mississippi. Wl hold on to very low chances of light showers in our northeast until just after midnight but the front looks to pass through our CWA as a dry cold front. /22/ Through tonight: Isolated showers continue to move across the area this afternoon in advance of a cold front that is still situated just to our west from the ArkLaTex into the Mid South.
533 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 High pressure in control will result in clear skies and light winds with unseasonably warm temperatures during the day and seasonably cool temperatures at night. Near record warmth and dry weather will continue through the weekend under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure.
636 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) A rather pedestrian short term forecast is in order, as an upper ridge covers the western CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under northwest flow aloft in a very dry post-frontal airmass. Friday, the ridge builds southeast into the region, increasing thicknesses/temperatures by around 5F over today's, to a pleasant 12- 14F above normal.
Temperatures this afternoon were seasonable with highs in the low 80s with plenty of sunshine in the fair weather cu.
Upper level high pressure centered across the Northern Rockies and Montana will maintain mild and dry conditions through most of the upcoming weekend with temperatures cooling slightly but remaining above seasonal averages.
942 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 GOES water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough lifting through the Great Lakes and lower Ohio River Valley this evening. Elsewhere over the Midsouth, a weak surface cold front extended roughly along the I-40 corridor. The surface cold front will exit northeast MS by sunrise, as slightly cooler and drier air continues to enter the Midsouth.
829 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Low pressure will track through the Great Lakes and an associated cold front will swing through the region overnight resulting in widespread rain showers through Friday morning.
644 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 (This evening through Friday night) Looking overhead, we have an upper trough situated over the Great Lakes Region with attached frontal boundary extending from there clear south across parts of northern LA and into TX. Post front, a upper ridge over the desert SW will slide southeast on the backside of the trough. At the surface, weak ridging over the Gulf will usher in dry westerly winds. We are actually going to get hotter, not cooler, afternoon temps.
639 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 (This afternoon through Friday Night) A few light showers have developed over Mid TN, but the activity will blossom more going into the evening as a trough axis approaches the area. Rain chances will shut off by Friday afternoon as the large scale trough axis moves east of the area.
Strong high pressure centered near Vegas is pivoting eastward as low pressure off the southern California COAST moves slowly northward. This will again be the case Friday however the cloud cover will be increasing and that should take many areas at least a few degrees cooler from todays readings.
807 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Aviation -Scattered Showers Continue, Breezy Friday Scattered showers continue off an on as we remain under the influence of an upper level low. Friday we move into more northwesterly flow with some lingering positive vorticty advection resulting in lower coverage before the upper level low clears Friday evening briefly bringing drier conditions. Friday night will be a little bit cooler with the cold air advection with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
At the surface a cold front is sweeping to the east situated north to south near Highway 131. Clouds will obviously persist as we remain in the upper trough as well as there is enough instability over Lake Michigan for stratocumulus production. -Scattered Showers Continue, Breezy Friday Scattered showers continue off an on as we remain under the influence of an upper level low. Friday we move into more northwesterly flow with some lingering positive vorticty advection resulting in lower coverage before the upper level low clears Friday evening briefly bringing drier conditions. Friday night will be a little bit cooler with the cold air advection with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Surface analysis depicts a trough in the Straits, while aloft a deep mid latitude trough extends from the Great Lakes southward to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Active convection will continue over parts of the area this morning, as copious moisture is lifted by veering/organized low level flow and the approaching mid/upper level trough. Conditions will improve this afternoon, as the trough aloft continues to move eastward, pushing the moisture and lift east of our area toward the Bahamas. Otherwise, expect highs to climb into the lower 80s, with some sunshine returning in the afternoon. Temps will be near to slightly below normal, with lows in the lower-mid 70s and highs in the lower-mid 80s.
Despite the cool start to the morning, highs will be unseasonably warm this afternoon with highs in the lower 90s.
1106 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 High pressure in control will result in clear skies and light winds with unseasonably warm temperatures during the day and seasonably cool temperatures at night. Near record warmth and dry weather will continue through the weekend under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure.
944 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the western Great Lakes region, with a trough to the west of the area.
Nudged the high temperature forecast up to NBM 75th percentile as yesterday's initializations showed a low bias of 2 to 4 degrees that's likely to persist into today given the pattern.
(Today and tonight) An upper level trough with an associated cold front will move through the area today, bringing with it a low end chance for showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder.
142 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023 High Pressure remains in control over the next couple days, although a weak cold front moves through the area today bringing a 10 degree drop in temperatures but nothing else of much consequence.
1226 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 A cold front is pushing east through the area and we are seeing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Shower activity will clear the area by the afternoon and as the upper level trough pushes east and we should see sunshine and highs near 70 except over the Plateau where it will remain cooler. (This afternoon through Friday Night) A few light showers have developed over Mid TN, but the activity will blossom more going into the evening as a trough axis approaches the area. Rain chances will shut off by Friday afternoon as the large scale trough axis moves east of the area.
317 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer today, dry for most.
1206 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (This evening through Friday) Mostly sunny skies and light winds will persist through today with highs in the low-to-mid 80s across the forecast area. Temperatures will continue to increase Friday as an upper ridge currently centered over the Mountain West shifts eastward and surface winds turn more southerly.
339 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Key Messages: - Dry with above normal temperatures A cold front/sfc trof is beginning to take shape out west this morning, as energy aloft starts to dig toward the upper Mississippi valley.
1133 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Low pressure will track through the Great Lakes and an associated cold front will swing through the region overnight resulting in widespread rain showers through Friday morning.
1150 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 GOES water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough lifting through the Great Lakes and lower Ohio River Valley this evening. Elsewhere over the Midsouth, a weak surface cold front extended roughly along the I-40 corridor. The surface cold front will exit northeast MS by sunrise, as slightly cooler and drier air continues to enter the Midsouth.
Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning shows a well-formed ridge of high pressure over the western U. Some high clouds are riding over the ridge, just north of the Canadian border.
Today Currently early this morning, a deep trough is moving through the area with an upstream 130+ kt upper jet extending from the Midwest. Outside of small hail due to low freezing heights and some gusty winds, the result has been needed rainfall to the area as many places are in moderate to severe drought. Tonight Heading into tonight, the trough and upper jet will shift further to the east with a northwesterly flow pattern remaining.
Upper ridging dominates the weather over the west coast while a closed upper low sites over the Great Lakes region with troughing extending south through Ohio River Valley and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. On the surface, an area of low pressure near the Great Lakes extends a cold front southward.
157 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Mid evening surface analysis had the cold front dropping into northwest Mississippi. Wl hold on to very low chances of light showers in our northeast until just after midnight but the front looks to pass through our CWA as a dry cold front. /22/ Through tonight: Isolated showers continue to move across the area this afternoon in advance of a cold front that is still situated just to our west from the ArkLaTex into the Mid South.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper-level trough axis is currently centered squarely atop northern MI at this early hour. This trough slowly shifts east through the day today with rebounding height fields; however, another wave digging towards the western Great Lakes tonight will put a damper on that. As moisture/forcing begin to scour out this afternoon, the arrival of shallow cooler air may be enough to garner at least a brief lake response across far southwestern sections of the forecast area (primarily near and southwest of TVC). Focus transitions to another compact area of low pressure diving by to our southwest.
1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) The tail end of a mid-level trough is pushing through the area today, but with very little moisture (PWAT values at or below 1"), we are not really seeing any signs of it. Current thinking is that while it could allow min temps to drop into the 50s in the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Plains, but most of the area will likely remain in the lower to middle 60s. A low level (below 800mb) westerly flow and drier air will allow temperatures to warm well above normal tomorrow with highs in the lower to mid 90s for most of the region.
1223 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) Mid and upper level ridging over the desert southwest gradually builds eastward into the region through Friday night. Lows tonight will range from the lower 50s in favored cool spots across the Hill Country to near 60 degrees in urban areas and portions of the coastal plains.
The 00Z synoptic analysis shows the ridge still firmly in place over the western states and the trough now about centered over the Great Lakes, with a light northwesterly flow aloft over Colorado on the front end of the ridge. GOES satellite imagery shows very dry air under the ridge, which is upstream for Colorado in the next few days. Clear skies tonight but still very warm overnight temperatures, generally 5 to 15 F warmer than normal across northeast Colorado. High temperatures on Friday will climb back into the lower 80s, around 20 degrees above normal. The flow aloft will be slightly weaker as the ridge axis shifts over CO.
(Today and tonight) High-amplitude ridging over the western U.
243 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Strong ridge continues to exert its influence across the state today, with near record high temperatures this afternoon. Highs will again reach the low to mid 70s, which is a good 15 degrees above normals for the middle of October.
345 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Cold front moving through the TN Valley will march into the Carolinas today spreading showers and scattered thunderstorms over the area. The cold front will move offshore this evening with high pressure along with cooler and drier air building into the region tonight. Satellite and regional radar imagery show the cold front and deep upper level trough moving through the TN Valley and will move into the forecast area this morning. With the clouds and winds expect overnight lows generally in the low to mid 50s. Couple of concerns with the front and upper level trough as they cross the region. This evening the front will move offshore with high pressure along with cooler and drier air moving into the region.
1254 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) A rather pedestrian short term forecast is in order, as an upper ridge covers the western CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under northwest flow aloft in a very dry post-frontal airmass. Friday, the ridge builds southeast into the region, increasing thicknesses/temperatures by around 5F over today's, to a pleasant 12- 14F above normal.
236 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 A cold front will continue to push off to our east today as weak high pressure slides to our south.
(Today) A storm system heading eastward across the north/central Great Lakes had a cold front extending southward to middle Tennessee, then across northern Mississippi to Lousiana. Otherwise rather mild for mid October conditions prevailed with temperatures from the lower 50s to lower 60s. Otherwise, the above noted cold front should move across the area mainly this morning. The light winds will become SW-W and increase into the 10-20 mph range with gusts of 30-35 mph at times, especially in the higher terrain and our more eastern areas. Under mostly to partly sunny skies, high temperatures should warm into the low/mid 70s - close to seasonable norms (Highs ~75 / Lows ~50).
258 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023 * Rain diminishing * Some clearing later today into tonight An upper trough currently extending from Michigan into the southern USA was bringing scattered to numerous showers as some energy rotates through the trough. The upper trough will gradually exit the area, but additional energy moving through it could bring a few more showers today. Cyclonic flow will help keep cloud cover across much of the area today, with ridging still upstream. Confidence in timing of the clearing is only medium with ridging still upstream. Clearing will gradually continue from west to east as drier air works in, but additional mid and high clouds will arrive overnight from the northwest ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Lower cloud cover will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 40s for lows.
Aloft, the trough responsible will continue to swing through the region today before pivoting out of the region later this evening. Temperatures climbing into 70s across the southwest is possible but where there's lingering cloud cover temperatures will only get into the low to mid-60s. High pressure with mostly clear skies will round of the end of the period.
* Rain diminishing * Some clearing later today into tonight An upper trough currently extending from Michigan into the southern USA was bringing scattered to numerous showers as some energy rotates through the trough. The upper trough will gradually exit the area, but additional energy moving through it could bring a few more showers today. Cyclonic flow will help keep cloud cover across much of the area today, with ridging still upstream. Confidence in timing of the clearing is only medium with ridging still upstream. Clearing will gradually continue from west to east as drier air works in, but additional mid and high clouds will arrive overnight from the northwest ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Lower cloud cover will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 40s for lows.
One of the lows can be seen rotating on radar just NE of Grand Rapids as of around 3 am/07z this morning. We should see an overall diminishing trend to the rain showers today as we will see some short wave upper ridging move into the area later in the day.
(Now through Saturday) A large upper trough is currently situated over the eastern CONUS and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a strong northwesterly flow aloft over the region. The base of the trough over the southeast states and eastern Gulf will lift northeastward through the near term, with a mostly zonal flow aloft returning over the region Saturday afternoon. Westerly surface winds will occur today in advance of an associated weak cold front approaching from the northwest. With plenty of sunshine today and Saturday, high temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s, with the exception of the upper 70s at the beaches.
606 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Key Messages: - Dry with above normal temperatures A cold front/sfc trof is beginning to take shape out west this morning, as energy aloft starts to dig toward the upper Mississippi valley. The airmass will be cooler on Saturday, with highs mainly in the 60s, but again, mixing depths look relatively deep.
The actual frontal boundary/upper trough are currently pushing across the mid state, although POPs are expected to linger into the morning before finally exiting the region by early afternoon. Sunshine will return in full by Saturday, and we can expect cooler temperatures this weekend, although not as large of a contrast as one might expect with a strong fropa of this nature.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper-level trough axis is currently centered squarely atop northern MI at this early hour. This trough slowly shifts east through the day today with rebounding height fields; however, another wave digging towards the western Great Lakes tonight will put a damper on that. As moisture/forcing begin to scour out this afternoon, the arrival of shallow cooler air may be enough to garner at least a brief lake response across far southwestern sections of the forecast area (primarily near and southwest of TVC). Focus transitions to another compact area of low pressure diving by to our southwest. Long wave troughing remains across the region through Saturday night yielding lots of clouds along with cool temperatures.
820 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Widespread to scattered rain showers will continue today with the passage of a upper-lvl trough and a cold front. Precipitation chances will likely continue for portion of our region through Saturday morning as the low exits east and scattered lake enhanced showers remain. Moisture/PWAT will also decrease with time behind a crossing cold front, but scattered showers will continue through the afternoon in incipient cold advection as the upper trough axis approaches and crosses. Areas that will likely see measurable precip after midnight Saturday will be northwest of Pittsburgh and along the ridges due to upsloping.
With the loss of daytime heating this evening, convection will diminish with some lingering upslope precip across the higher elevations into the early overnight hours. Today Currently early this morning, a deep trough is moving through the area with an upstream 130+ kt upper jet extending from the Midwest. Outside of small hail due to low freezing heights and some gusty winds, the result has been needed rainfall to the area as many places are in moderate to severe drought. Tonight Heading into tonight, the trough and upper jet will shift further to the east with a northwesterly flow pattern remaining.
/NEW/ Update: No changes to the previous short term discussion below regarding the weak surface front/trough arriving by mid-late morning. An upper ridge slowly builds in from the west late in the day and through Saturday which means the relatively hot temperatures for latter October that only get worse before they get better.
645 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023 A moist low level environment remains in the wake of slowly exiting low pressure.
609 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Today and tonight) High-amplitude ridging over the western U.
A streak of warm air advection continues to spread east along the Lower Keys, and the showers along this streak should be the end of the rains for the island chain.
(Today through Saturday) Overall, expect rain-free and warm conditions to persist through the period as ridging aloft continues to dominate over the region.
657 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer today, dry for most. Despite the breeze and cold front, temperatures on Saturday will be right at climatology, with highs in the upper 50s.
612 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough with an associated cold front will move through the area today, bringing with it a low end chance for showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder.
616 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Today) A highly amplified pattern will remain in place today with a robust western USA ridge and eastern trough. The CWA remains along the eastern edge of the upper level ridge, with a slight warming of the thermal profile compared to yesterday. This will result in somewhat warmer temperatures today than what has been seen lately, with highs in the low to mid 80s for much of the area, except upper 70s in northwest AR.
609 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) The end of this week features highly anomalous warmth thanks to a strong upper ridge stretching from northern Mexico through the Great Basin. Between very dry conditions behind the front from a few days ago and subsidence from the ridge, precipitation changes stay nil in the short term.
649 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 (Today through Saturday) A longwave trough is amplified north to south across much of the eastern CONUS this morning, with ridging over the Four Corners stretching toward the Pacific Northwest. The longwave trough axis will move through the area early this morning, with mid level winds becoming northwesterly before sunrise. The cold front gets left behind, but eventually moves through the area this afternoon and tonight, becoming increasingly east to west oriented. With warm air under the ridge to our west, advection patterns remain neutral to warm, even behind the front. Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the low to mid 70s northeast to lower 80s southwest. A tightened pressure gradient and mixing in the lowest levels will setup breezy westerly to northwesterly winds, with occasional gusts of 25-28mph.
Highs will be cooler than normal across the north due to clouds and rain.
Upper ridging dominates the weather over the west coast while a closed upper low sites over the Great Lakes region with troughing extending south through Ohio River Valley and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. On the surface, an area of low pressure near the Great Lakes extends a cold front southward. This weather system will move eastward over the next 24 hours with the cold front exiting into the western Atlantic by early Saturday morning. This will be a mostly dry cold front for Florida with near zero rain chances and really no cool down expected behind this front. A weak dry cold front approaches the area later today. By Saturday morning, the front pushes east of the area and the winds become northwest around 10 knots and continue through the weekend as high pressure ridges over the eastern gulf waters.
Out ahead of this feature will see south winds today 5 to 15 mph and then 850 mb thermal ridge moves into the mid/southern RRV 18z-21z. Cooler air moves southeast tonight and Saturday will see winds turn more northerly and a bit more cloud cover drop south behind the 500 mb wave.
A cold front will continue to push off to our east today as weak high pressure slides to our south. A weak dry cold front will move through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Saturday morning. With breezy south to southwest winds just ahead of the front, and the colder air lagging well behind the front, sunny skies will help push temperatures to even warmer highs in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees. This will help usher in the cooler air, with lows Saturday night in the lower to middle 40s.