Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The forecast still points towards the highest precipitation north of I-90 which will be measured in inches, up to an inch in many valleys and 1 to 2 inches in the mountains. Do not be surprised if places like I-90 east of Missoula, Potomac Valley, Seeley Valley south of Swan Lake, and the Mission Valley end the day with some of the highest low elevation totals, especially in southern and western benches. As the low pressure center passes through northwest Montana today the atmosphere will cool and snow levels lower to between 5500 and 6000 feet. By Sunday morning looking up into the Mission and Flathead mountains, Glacier National Park, and the Bob Marshalls will have a defined line of fresh whiteness as 4-10 inches of very wet snow will fall in the highest elevations.
Otherwise the forecast for a cooler day with periods of rain remains on track. Current surface analysis places low over western Kansas, with trough extending up along the lee of the Rockies, while high remains over northern Manitoba/northern Ontario. Upper level analysis places trough in the vicinity of the west coast, with a compact low noted over Southern Manitoba. Variety of short waves noted in the flow ahead of the aforementioned trough, with one resulting in some light showers over southwest North Dakota.
215 AM PDT Sat May 6 2023 A trough along the West Coast will maintain cool weather over California through the coming week.
There is not much weather along this trough, just a cyclonic turn to the winds, collocated with a 925 mb vort max on CIMMS analyses. High pressure will meander off the Mid Atlantic coast through the weekend, with gentle to moderate mainly east breezes persisting across the majority of the coastal waters today through Sunday.
1254 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023 A weak warm front will weaken further and wash out across the Midsouth as it lifts to the northeast. This feature should be enough to generate a few rain showers and thunderstorms over the area, but stronger ridging over the Mississippi River Delta has proven to be the bigger influence on todays weather so far. The ridge should certainly dominate our pattern tonight resulting in mostly dry conditions. Tomorrow, as the ridge axis shifts over Middle Tennessee and Alabama, expect a higher chance of rain and thunderstorms.
1257 PM EDT Sat May 6 2023 High pressure will make for nice weather for much of this weekend until a fast moving weather system brings scattered showers to the region late Sunday afternoon and night.
A cold front drops down through the area from the north tomorrow night, but the bulk of locations will remain dry.
Moist advection from upstream convection will increase cirrus/high-level clouds overnight as the upper ridge over the Ohio River Valley begins to break down.
1153 AM EDT Sat May 6 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending through the state will bring a sunny, seasonably milder and dry start to the weekend here in Central PA.
Tomorrow the upper level ridge will strengthen, leading to some drying in the mid to upper levels. MaxT's for Sunday should be much more on track, peaking in the mid to upper 80s, given the lower rain chances and some areas of sunshine expected for the afternoon.
1100 AM CDT Sat May 6 2023 A weak warm front will weaken further and wash out across the Midsouth as it lifts to the northeast. This feature should be enough to generate a few rain showers and thunderstorms over the area, but stronger ridging over the Mississippi River Delta has proven to be the bigger influence on todays weather so far. The ridge should certainly dominate our pattern tonight resulting in mostly dry conditions. Tomorrow, as the ridge axis shifts over Middle Tennessee and Alabama, expect a higher chance of rain and thunderstorms.
329 PM EDT Sat May 6 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending through the eastern part of PA will bring mainly clear skies through early tonight followed by increasing clouds late.
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows one of several smaller scale circulation centers embedded with a larger scale/negatively tilted trough across the western US centered over Western portions of N- central MT.
1156 AM PDT Sat May 6 2023 A trough of low pressure will move eastward across Northern California today, resulting in a slight chance of precipitation from Fresno County northward.
Relatively weak steering flow and an eventual increase in the low level jet yields slow eastward storm motions.
Current surface analysis not looking as favorable as flow remains decidedly veered to the west- southwest with mixing having mixed out the high 60s dew point temperatures. Storms would be high based owing to the large temp-dew point depression, but MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg point to potential to grow upscale fairly quickly with the highly conditional severe potential looking fine at this time.
The low level jet becomes unfavorable for storm development toward 12Z Sunday as it leans over toward OH and the flow over MI turns west-northwesterly. It will be noticeably more warm and humid though since the warm front pushes in and delivers dew points in the mid to upper 50s and temps warm well into the 70s.
The deterministic NBM is on the high end of guidance, with almost all ensemble members showing 0. However, with an ideal storm track and ingredients there is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for the high end scenario producing an area of 2-3"+.
Lows tonight range from the lower 60s inland to the mid/upper 60s at the coast.
One other area to watch will be central SD where the high resolution models are indicating some isolated stronger storms on the tail end of the wave moving north. Once the central SD activity winds down in central SD this evening the overall support for convection wanes as convergence weakens and a very weak mid and upper level ridge moves through.
The Omega Block over the CONUS has deamplified and shifted east, with upper-level ridging now across much of the eastern US. High pressure centered near North Carolina stretches across northern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An emaciated cumulus streamer lingers across the Lower Keys, with bases unseasonably high (3 kft).
1235 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023 (Today through Sunday) (Today through Sunday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley are expected to remain on the northwest periphery of 500 mb high pressure centered roughly over the Bay of Campeche during the period. Breezy surface winds from the southeast will may help to make highs feel a little cooler in shady areas.
338 PM EDT Sat May 6 2023 Mainly dry weather is expected through Sunday as high pressure remains near the East Coast.
(Through Sunday) Another warm, mostly rain-free day is on tap for us tomorrow thanks to a strong ridge over the central Gulf with its axis extending down the TN/MS Valley. A mild night is in store with lows in the low to mid 60s.
103 PM EDT Sat May 6 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending through the state will bring a sunny, seasonably milder and dry start to the weekend here in Central PA.
Light east/southeast flow veers to south and southwest Sunday as a warm front edges east through the area.
313 PM EDT Sat May 6 2023 Upper air pattern consists of 500 mb troughs on both coasts and an elongated trough across the northern plains which bridges the gap between them. The pattern is blocky and a trough will remain over the northern plains this period with building heights over the upper Great Lakes by 00z Sun.
The upper low then either stalls or sort of retrogrades Sunday.
254 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023 Warm front was located in northern KS to northern MO into middle TN with temps well into the 80s to lower 90s to the south, while dewpoints were well into the 60s to lower 70s. The main threats will be large hail where elevated storms north of the warm front fire up. Very warm and humid conditions expected ahead of a digging trough in the Rockies and low pressure in ND.
305 PM EDT Sat May 6 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Northwest flow (aloft) has set up as upr ridge remains nearly stationary over the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
The forecast starts off with an upper ridge building over the OH River Valley, with SW flow aloft over the central U. A warm front in southern IL will lift north through the area tonight.
AL are picking this up as well, however, if temps can push into the low 80s today, it would be enough to overcome these inversions. The focal point for any shower/storm activity would be over NW AL if the high dew points advect further east and enough activity in play to erode the cap.
1258 PM EDT Sat May 6 2023 No major updates this morning except to the hourly temperature and dewpoint grids to allow them to align better with the observed trends with the slightly cooler start in some areas this morning. This will allow for a mid-level short wave over the Southern Gulf Coast States to move southeast around the mid-level ridge and through South Florida late this weekend. Lows each night will be in the mid to upper 60s, except in the lower to mid-70s metro areas.
223 PM EDT Sat May 6 2023 Upper air pattern consists of 500 mb troughs on both coasts and an elongated trough across the northern plains which bridges the gap between them. The pattern is blocky and a trough will remain over the northern plains this period with building heights over the upper Great Lakes by 00z Sun.
1154 AM MDT Sat May 6 2023 The longwave trough that has been stalled across the PacNW will move little during the next several days, continuing the unsettled weather for western Wyoming. Sunday morning will start with the next lobe of the midlevel trough rotating into western WY. Temperatures are expected to be below freezing Sunday morning, so convective snow banding may set up off the Tetons and Salts/Wyomings briefly.
Key Messages: - Marginal risk severe storms tonight - Enhanced risk severe storms Sunday night Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing a broad upper trough over the western CONUS with downstream ridging prevailing to the east. At the surface, an area of low pressure situated over northeastern KS was aiding with increasing low level moisture advection up through MO into southern IA. Furthermore, adequate environmental shear will be on hand to allow for rotating cells as a warm front lifts into the IA CWA.
Wet bulb zero heights as low as 7000-8000 feet will keep any hail quite small, and the high terrain of the Beartooth-Absaroka and Crazy Mtns above 8000 feet should pick up a little snow accumulation (something like 1-3", which is near the NBM mean). The models have continued shift the track of the low around, with varying impacts on the placement of precipitation.
(Tonight through Sunday night) The short term period forecast is expected to be mostly dry as a mid- level high pressure system in the Bay of Campeche will be the main synoptic influence for the weather during this time. These clouds will help keep some places a bit cooler such as the Lower Rio Grande Valley being in the lower 90s in contrast to Zapata and Starr that could see high temperatures in the triple digits. Southeasterly winds will help to bring in some moisture but also the warmer air as well.
410 PM EDT Sat May 6 2023 Upper ridging remains overhead with south winds at the surface.
325 PM EDT Sat May 6 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending through the eastern part of PA will bring mainly clear skies through early tonight followed by increasing clouds late.
1155 AM EDT Sat May 6 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending through the state will bring a sunny, seasonably milder and dry start to the weekend here in Central PA.
Low pressure is progged to slowly shift north out of northeast SD later this evening and into eastern ND and northwest MN overnight. Sfc lee troughing across the Black Hills should lead to afternoon convection developing off the higher terrain.
As such, temperatures will also be notably warmer, with highs making into the 70s and possibly 80s across our area. Sunday Night Through Saturday Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening, but overall coverage looks limited as the primary lift will be will be closer to the surface warm front near the WI/IL border.
157 PM MDT Sat May 6 2023 A longwave trough will continue to slowly move across the Pacific Northwest. Sunday looks to be much of the same as the longwave trough to the west continues to slowly move eastward.
Brief ridging aloft will keep southern Idaho and southeast Oregon dry through mid-afternoon before thunderstorms develop in the late afternoon and early evening. The next Pacific trough will bring significant rain into our CWA from the south tonight through Sunday. That trough already looks stronger on satellite than the current one in Idaho, with clouds and showers already evident in northern Nevada and northeast California.
Overall plan on this week to be much warmer and drier compared to the pattern the region just experienced. High pressure across the region will maintain fair weather overnight. Bulk of greater instability is banked off to the southwest closer to the sfc warm front, but there is enough elevated instability for some possible rumbles of thunder. All this fragmented upper level support will be interacting with nw- se oriented baroclinic zone while true sfc warm front stays southwest across the Ohio Valley. This time frame will be mainly dry as high pressure over Ontario province builds in while baroclinic zone drops farther south, Ohio Valley to Mid Atlantic.
Overnight, the HRRR develops an MCS over IL/IN right along a warm front, and the remnants of this complex are projected to turn southward and cross into Middle Tennessee around 18Z tomorrow. In the meantime, an upper ridge situated over Middle Tennessee this evening looks to flatten out during the next several hours as the upper flow becomes more zonal.
Currently - A healthy pressure ridge extends from off the Carolina coast, across the far southeastern United States and along the northern gulf coast. This ridge is generating gentle to moderate east northeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters.
947 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023 Stronger than expected upper ridging led to a dry and very warm day across the Mid-South. Expect a quiet and mild night as ridging remains in place. This feature could generate some showers and thunderstorms when coupled with diurnal heating and a weakening upper ridge.
(This evening through Sunday) Northwest flow (aloft) has set up as upr ridge remains nearly stationary over the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
754 PM EDT Sat May 6 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending through the eastern part of PA will bring mainly clear skies through early tonight followed by increasing clouds late.
The broad ridge axis aloft will extend from over Louisiana northeast to over the Eastern Great Lakes overnight.
726 PM EDT Sat May 6 2023 Mainly dry weather is expected through Sunday as high pressure remains near the East Coast.
There is still some potential for fog developing overnight into early Sunday morning,especially over the lower Pine Belt region, but will continue to hold off on any mention of dense fog. It appears convective precip approaching the ArkLaTex region will fizzle prior to reaching western portions of the forecast area given the ridging/drier mid levels in our region.
Otherwise, aside from an increase in some high clouds debris associated with weakening upstream convection offshore of the northern Gulf Coast, mainly quiet weather ahead is expected tonight as drier air builds into the region with overnight lows dropping into the low 60s across the Nature Coast, mid 60s for the interior areas, and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast.
637 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) The short term period forecast is expected to be mostly dry as a mid- level high pressure system in the Bay of Campeche will be the main synoptic influence for the weather during this time. These clouds will help keep some places a bit cooler such as the Lower Rio Grande Valley being in the lower 90s in contrast to Zapata and Starr that could see high temperatures in the triple digits. Southeasterly winds will help to bring in some moisture but also the warmer air as well.
650 PM EDT Sat May 6 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon as a mesoscale convective system develops in Iowa this evening, rides the ridge axis near the Great Lakes overnight, then advances central Ohio. Overall, temperatures will remain near or above average as ridge builds across the central CONUS throughout the week. Previous Discussion: Upper-lvl moisture associated with a warm front in the Midwest will continue to filter into the region under northwest flow aloft.
724 PM EDT Sat May 6 2023 (Through Sunday) Another warm, mostly rain-free day is on tap for us tomorrow thanks to a strong ridge over the central Gulf with its axis extending down the TN/MS Valley. A mild night is in store with lows in the low to mid 60s.
306 PM PDT Sat May 6 2023 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will wane this evening with drier and slightly warmer conditions expected for Sunday.
This rain will add to the high flow on rivers/creeks/streams.
440 PM MDT Sat May 6 2023 A longwave trough will continue to slowly move across the Pacific Northwest. Sunday looks to be much of the same as the longwave trough to the west continues to slowly move eastward.
753 PM EDT Sat May 6 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon as a mesoscale convective system develops in Iowa this evening, rides the ridge axis near the Great Lakes overnight, then advances central Ohio. Overall, temperatures will remain near or above average as ridge builds across the central CONUS throughout the week. Previous Discussion: Upper-lvl moisture associated with a warm front in the Midwest will continue to filter into the region under northwest flow aloft.
Warm front was located in northern KS to northern MO into middle TN with temps well into the 80s to lower 90s to the south, while dewpoints were well into the 60s to lower 70s. The main threats will be large hail where elevated storms north of the warm front fire up. Very warm and humid conditions expected ahead of a digging trough in the Rockies and low pressure in ND.
With lower elevations currently right around freezing, this wave will start as a rain/snow mix, before switching back to rain by noon. Models have continued to build a brief ridge across Wyoming on Monday, but have shifted the increasing ridge more to the north and east, leaving most of southern and western Wyoming in diffluence aloft.
A warm front extends se-ward toward the IL/WI border and Michiana. A low level jet is advecting warm/moist/marginally unstable air north of the warm front. Building high pressure on Hudson Bay, and a sharpening of the warm front to our south, will increase e to ene low-level flow across the area today and this evening. The main action is the 500 mb low in Newfoundland pushes west as the ridge over the region begins to break down.
MONDAY: The train of weak disturbances and low end rain chances continues, depending on how far north/south the warm front associated with another CO Low drifts in the Central Plains. MID WEEK: A warm up into the upper 70s to lower 80s looks likely as ridging to our south amplifies and the blocking East Coast system exits into the Atlantic.
High temperatures will be similar for Monday with small chances for light rain and/or drizzle across the Bay Area (primarily North Bay) with the upper trough lurking nearby.
1225 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) The short term period forecast is expected to be mostly dry as a mid- level high pressure system in the Bay of Campeche will be the main synoptic influence for the weather during this time. These clouds will help keep some places a bit cooler such as the Lower Rio Grande Valley being in the lower 90s in contrast to Zapata and Starr that could see high temperatures in the triple digits. Southeasterly winds will help to bring in some moisture but also the warmer air as well.
1146 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023 Stronger than expected upper ridging led to a dry and very warm day across the Mid-South. Expect a quiet and mild night as ridging remains in place. This feature could generate some showers and thunderstorms when coupled with diurnal heating and a weakening upper ridge.
Cloud cover will drop down to mostly / partly cloudy levels for much of the area as drier air associated with high pressure ridging begins to transition into place over the forecast area into Monday morning. High temperatures for today will range from the 70s along the coastline up into the lower 80s for areas further inland. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower 60s over inland areas and down into the mid to upper 60s for areas along the coast. (Sunday through Monday) Lower level high pressure ridging will extend across the forecast area from out of the east resulting in inhibited convection and drier conditions on Sunday and Monday.
Only have ghost pops in the grids now, with the highest values (if you want to call them that) is located across the Interstate 70 corridor. For Monday, we will get a brief relief from the heat as a high pressure center settles over western Kansas. Winds will eventually change to SE as the high moves off to the east.
As such, temperatures will also be notably warmer, with highs making into the 70s and possibly 80s across our area.
A secondary warm front is moving through the CWA this morning along with some stronger to severe storms continuing to progress eastward.
A strong upper lvl ridge remains in place across the Mid-South region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a warm front continues to lift northward and will keep the state ensnared in this hot and humid airmass.
Warm front was located in northern KS to northern MO into middle TN with temps well into the 80s to lower 90s to the south, while dewpoints were well into the 60s to lower 70s. The main threats will be large hail where elevated storms north of the warm front fire up. Very warm and humid conditions expected ahead of a digging trough in the Rockies and low pressure in ND. Monday: A cold front arrives pushing the thunderstorm threat southward and there is still a severe threat (marginal risk) in our far southern counties. It will be cooler with highs in the upper 60s north to upper 70s south.
A few showers and perhaps an isolated storm are expected tonight through Monday with a warm front near the MI/IN border.
336 AM EDT Sun May 7 2023 High pressure and offshore winds will allow for warm weather today. Some showers will clip southern portions of the area tonight followed by a dry cold front passing Monday.
420 AM EDT Sun May 7 2023 (Today through Monday) The upper level ridge currently over the region will weaken today giving way to more of a zonal flow by tomorrow morning. While at the surface, high pressure will remain just off the Carolina coast. Late this morning the larger dirty ridge pattern will aid in the development of MCS activity to our north.
However, north of the front along I-70 it will be a little cooler. Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of the front on Monday, with highs in the 80s.
This boundary will lift north into Iowa today as a a warm front. The severe weather threat on Monday will be conditional on how far southeast the surface cold front sinks across the area. temperatures behind the front on Monday will be cooler in the low to mid 80s which is still nearly 10 degrees above normal.
Dry northerly flow aloft develops today as mid/upper ridging builds in from the west. Dry air and subsidence will inhibit convection, however, there will be enough moisture in the lower levels to support scattered diurnal cumulus. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s.
Temperatures this afternoon will be a degree or two cooler compared to yesterday due to overcast skies with temperatures maxing out in the upper 80s. The overcast skies persist into tonight keeping us warm with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Ridging aloft re-strengthens a bit on Monday allowing for more breaks in the clouds, thus helping us warm back up to near 90. The southerly flow will be keeping dew points in the low 70s causing heat indicies to climb into the low to mid 90s today and Monday.