Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
635 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Deep upper level low currently over Oregon will track east into Wyoming Friday. The higher terrain could see gusts to 45 mph with gusts to 35 mph across the plains.
A fairly impressive subtropical jet by September standards is supporting a disturbance over the ArkLaTex region, but the moisture with this system might fare better moving through a brick wall vs the ridge that is place. Southeast behind the potential tropical cyclone off the South Carolina coast, and it appears that portions of our forecast area could still see afternoon RH values fall to around 30 percent tomorrow where mixing occurs - east of better rain chances.
909 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure will maintain dry weather across the region through Friday night.
The low, high temperature resulted from the cloud cover that persisted across the Lower Keys. An area of low pressure east of Florida will generate light to gentle breezes late tonight, then breezes will turn to the north to northeast through Friday evening.
However, a decent wave ejecting out of the western upper trof will start to make its presence known late tnt out west, where the latest CAMS are spinning up some convection.
Temperatures generally range from the low 60s near the International Border to the mid-70s in the southern Red River Valley.
955 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 (Issued 1055 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023) A stagnated upper level low south of the large scale ridge remains in northern Illinois bringing plenty of spotty showers across southern Wisconsin from PVA. This low will slide north with PVA largely restricted to the western parts of the CWA and thus tonight into tomorrow we should (60-70%) expect showers to mostly be located further west. With the clouds and showers kept the high temps in the lower to middle 70s over portions of south central WI with middle to upper 70s elsewhere.
722 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the weekend. A weakening mid level low pressure system will continue to lift north across the western Great Lakes through tonight. Tropical low pressure system will ride up along the southeast coast and into the mid Atlantic States Friday into Friday night as high pressure remains in place across our area. The tropical low pressure system will weaken as it lifts north along the east coast through the weekend.
Deep upper level low currently over Oregon will track east into Wyoming Friday. The higher terrain could see gusts to 45 mph with gusts to 35 mph across the plains.
San Luis Valley mins could again drop toward freezing, mainly right around Alamosa where winds will be lightest. On Friday, upper low slides eastward into the nrn Great Basin, with strengthening w-sw winds across CO. With the lower/mid level height gradient being relaxed over the region, surface winds will not be all that strong and no significant fire weather concerns are anticipated during this period. As for mins, we may see the San Luis valley getting to around freezing some of the nights, but a widespread hard freeze does not appear likely.
517 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Water vapor shows main upper low over eastern OR with distinct short wave ejecting northeast across the Central Plains. At the surface, low continues to deepen over eastern CO with inverted trof extending northeast into central SD. On Friday, upper low will shift into eastern ID/western WY by late afternoon.
(This evening through Friday) Key Messages: - NHC has initiated advisories for potential tropical cyclone 16 off the coast. - Another set of days with highs in the low 70s to upper 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Forecast: The headline would be the formation of potential tropical cyclone 16 off the Georgia coastline this morning/afternoon. For the purposes of north and central Georgia, little impacts expected from the potential cyclone besides maybe a few showers this afternoon in far east central Georgia and some cloud cover.
The high resolution models are all over the place about how precipitation chances evolve for the rest of the night but we should see an increase in isolated to scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms over the next several hours. Currently, large area of low pressure over the western CONUS, centered over eastern Oregon. Upper low continues to slowly move east through Friday afternoon, moving into western Wyoming by late afternoon. A more defined embedded mid level wave will rotate around the upper low and lift northeast across western/central SD Friday afternoon. Aforementioned upper low continues its gradual eastward migration, moving over the Rockies late Friday, before meandering through the Northern Plains this weekend.
Nearly all of the high resolution models have significantly backed off on widespread precipitation development overnight. The high resolution models are all over the place about how precipitation chances evolve for the rest of the night but we should see an increase in isolated to scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms over the next several hours. Currently, large area of low pressure over the western CONUS, centered over eastern Oregon. Upper low continues to slowly move east through Friday afternoon, moving into western Wyoming by late afternoon. A more defined embedded mid level wave will rotate around the upper low and lift northeast across western/central SD Friday afternoon. Aforementioned upper low continues its gradual eastward migration, moving over the Rockies late Friday, before meandering through the Northern Plains this weekend.
644 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Occasional high clouds will continue to shed off the quasi stationary, yet weakening, upper low over the IL/WI border region and track into Se Mi during the night. Some of the higher based cu which developed across the thumb region and Ontario may hold together to a degree within the easterly flow and affect the terminals overnight.
Relatively light ESE winds will continue overnight with high pressure at the sfc anchored well NE of the local area.
710 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Fair dry weather will continue through the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds over the region. High pressure will bring continued dry weather to the region tonight. Lows will fall back into the low to mid 40s across the bulk of the region, with some upper 30s possible across the interior higher terrain. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s, some upper 60s across the higher terrain. A light wind and high clouds will keep it warmer overnight with lows in the upper 40s.
929 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the weekend. Cirrus clouds and a few mid level clouds continue to spill into our CWA from the weakening low pressure off to our west. Tropical low pressure system will ride up along the southeast coast and into the mid Atlantic States Friday into Friday night as high pressure remains in place across our area. The tropical low pressure system will weaken as it lifts north along the east coast through the weekend.
Overnight tonight we may see several hours of mostly quiet weather, but as the low level jet increases in strength scattered showers and storms are expected to redevelop across eastern OK first, then spread through the rest of the area. (Tonight through Thursday) Elevated convection will continue through the morning hours across eastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas, with a gradual decrease in coverage and intensity as the low level jet weakens through mid morning.
Water vapor shows main upper low over eastern OR with distinct short wave ejecting northeast across the Central Plains. At the surface, low continues to deepen over eastern CO with inverted trof extending northeast into central SD. On Friday, upper low will shift into eastern ID/western WY by late afternoon.
750 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Anomalously warm temperatures are prevailing across Upper Michigan this afternoon with high pressure centered over the area.
335 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 (Issued 334 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023) Today and Tonight: Forecast area sits between two troughs of low pressure.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge across northern Mexico will continue to influence the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
(Today and tonight) Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 is currently located off the southeast US coast. At the same time, high pressure is located in the northeast with a wedge of drier air down the spine of the Appalachians. Tonight, lows will fall into the low/mid 60s with clear skies.
Given that the FA will be sandwiched between the two disturbances with ridging aloft, NBM now has a dry day progged. Temperatures will be slightly above normal on Friday and Saturday with maxTs in the low to mid 80s and minTs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Saturday is essentially a rinse and repeat of today except there will be even less clouds with temperatures just a hair warmer- highs in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the low 60s.
With the clouds have come scattered showers and cooler temperatures, especially across the northern forecast area which has had an outflow from morning thunderstorms in northeast Nebraska move through. The upper level low and and main front move through on Saturday morning. Same vote for Saturday, as the frontal timing and proximity of the low don't suggest real great rain chances.
(Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this morning, with high pressure to the NE of the area promoting clear/dry conditions.
Chances for showers and storms are forecast to continue through the weekend ahead of an advancing upper level low. Near seasonal temperatures return this weekend through much of the upcoming week, with highs largely in the low to mid 70s. Tonight into Saturday will see the highest threat for showers and thunderstorms with a few severe storms possible. This threat should shift rapidly east by early to mid afternoon as the dry air aloft lowers into the lower levels and shifts east.
While not as impressive as previously progged, modest elevated moisture transport on a modest low-level jet should promote additional scattered to numerous showers/storms later tonight thru Friday morning with the highest confidence after 12z/Friday mainly east of the I-135 corridor. While enough clearing and destabilization is expected to occur in the wake of the morning convection some weak ridging aloft and a stronger cap looks to inhibit deep surface based convection along the western periphery of the forecast area. The higher confidence on deep convection and also severe storms still looks to be on Saturday afternoon/evening as the main upper low/trof begins to eject into the northern/central Plains and cold front merges/overtakes the dry-line as it moves into central and eastern Kansas.
The pattern aloft is characterized by ridging centered over Mexico, a closed low over the Desert SW, and potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen off the Ern coast. Moving ahead in time, the aforementioned closed low will traverse the Rockies into the Cntrl Plains. The cold front will move towards the region with showers and thunderstorm chances increasing along and ahead of the front. High temperatures on Saturday will be a bit warmer than today, with readings topping out in the lower 80s to lower 90s.
- Severe weather will be possible again Saturday afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front.
Drier air is expected to spread across the area tonight and Saturday, from the east, and this could allow lows in the lower 50s across northwest IN by Saturday morning.
1234 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Current WV satellite shows the upper trough that brought showers to the Permian Basin this morning is now in the eastern TX Panhandle and moving into Oklahoma. The lingering cloud cover is holding temps down a few degrees more than models were showing for this afternoon which is important because afternoon heating is the only thing left to destabilize the atmosphere with the upper trough leaving. Hi-res models are showing widely scattered convection developing, mainly west of the Pecos River where the higher elevations will aid in lift though some activity could make it farther east.
This afternoon, temperatures are generally in the lower 80s with modest humidity levels. For the upcoming near term forecast, middle Tennessee will remain in the subsidence region as a potential tropical cyclone heads toward the Carolinas and some weak upper ridging starts to build to our west.
1256 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will keep the area dry and warm today. All eyes will then focus on low pressure that will slowly move on shore then over the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend.
An incoming system from the west continues to be the highlight of the weekend forecast. Some hint in model guidance of energy wrapping out around the upper level low. Otherwise, there seems to be much better agreement through the earlier part of the weekend, with latest model solutions showing the low generally moving eastward into the Dakotas. With a bit of a blocking pattern set up, trends have continued to lean towards slowing the eastward progression of the low from there.
A cold front is expected to move through Saturday evening.
Unfortunately, 500 mb high pressure won't get the message, and this feature will continue to dominate over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the period. Although generally isolated convection will be possible over the lower Texas coastal waters, a stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for the coastal portions of Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties. Meanwhile, the presence of the mid-level ridge will ensure well above normal daytime high temperatures.
However, a decent wave ejecting out of the western upper trof will start to make its presence known late tnt out west, where the latest CAMS are spinning up some convection. An upper level low makes its way across the region this weekend bringing increased chances for heavy rain for areas east of the Missouri River.
1228 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will cross the area tonight, then move south of the region later Friday into Saturday.
Water vapor shows main upper low over eastern OR with distinct short wave ejecting northeast across the Central Plains. At the surface, low continues to deepen over eastern CO with inverted trof extending northeast into central SD. On Friday, upper low will shift into eastern ID/western WY by late afternoon. Upper low shifts into far western SD Saturday morning, and into north-central SD by late afternoon. However, guidance suggests quite a bit dry air getting entrained into the upper low, so showers may be more on and off versus steady through the day.
(Today through Saturday) A strong upper ridge remains centered to our southwest which is keeping the persistent hot temperatures in the forecast through at least the short-term period of the forecast. Our eastern counties will be on the eastern periphery of the ridge which places this area in deep southerly flow. Tonight, more low clouds can be expected which keeps lows much warmer than normal, but again just lower than records for warmest mins. Highs tomorrow should be a degree or two warmer as 850 temps slightly warm.
A large low pressure system over northern Nevada will start to weaken and lift away across the Northern Intermountain Region today.
High clouds shearing off the weakening upper low over the IL/WI border region have increased across Se Mi. We will reside within the col region between three mid-level troughs (one dropping across northern Ontario into Quebec, one closed low moving into the northern Plains, and one tropical low forming off the Carolina coast) Friday into Saturday, maintaining a benign weather pattern into the weekend. Temperatures Friday reach the upper 70s while Saturday will be a touch cooler as light winds organize more out of the northeast in response to the growing spatial influence of the Carolina system.
442 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Dry air has filtered over the peninsula this morning on the back side of the low pressure area.
Overnight tonight we may see several hours of mostly quiet weather, but as the low level jet increases in strength scattered showers and storms are expected to redevelop across eastern OK first, then spread through the rest of the area.
159 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Remnant convectively-augmented midlevel low over Illinois should slowly move north/northwestward on the periphery of Great Lakes ridge, influencing our area less with time. An axis of richer low- level moisture will remain west of our area, and in fact Tropical Cyclone Sixteen should trend our trajectories northeasterly and keep us dry. Through tonight, deepening cyclone in the northern Plains and associated resurgence of moisture is expected to hold to our west.
The high clouds during the overnight hours has kept any fog development pretty scattered and mainly for areas that have experienced the longer break in the clouds. Dry conditions will also prevail today under the influence of high pressure. Two with closest proximity will be the low moving across northern plains and the tropical system forecast to move onshore in North Carolina Friday night. A high pressure situates between these two lows and a third area of troughing over Quebec.
840 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure to the south will bring warming for the weekend, but with high temperatures remaining below average. These clouds and a trough to the north will lead to another well below average day with highs 5-15 degrees below average.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) We maintain zonal mid/upper level flow with the ridge centered across northern Mexico and an upper trough across the Great Basin and northwestern US with water vapor satellite imagery showing a solid plume of Pacific moisture streaming through. While only a few lucky souls may see some rain, the real headline for today and tomorrow is the highly unseasonable heat for mid/late September fueled by a strengthening low level thermal ridge and downsloping surface winds.
Deep upper level low currently over Oregon will track east into Wyoming Friday. The higher terrain could see gusts to 45 mph with gusts to 35 mph across the plains. Friday night into Saturday, a closed upper low will track across Wyoming into the Dakotas with a strong westerly flow aloft over Northern Colorado.
358 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will keep the area dry and warm today. All eyes will then focus on low pressure that will slowly move on shore then over the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend.
138 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the weekend. Cirrus clouds and a few mid level clouds continue to spill into our CWA from the weakening low pressure off to our west. Tropical low pressure system will ride up along the southeast coast and into the mid Atlantic States Friday into Friday night as high pressure remains in place across our area. The tropical low pressure system will weaken as it lifts north along the east coast through the weekend.
The low pressure circulation that has brought widespread rainfall and mountain snow the past 24hrs, is currently spinning over central Idaho, and will slowly move eastward into Wyoming through the day today. As the low progresses east, a well defined deformation band of precipitation will rotate westward over west-central Montana. There still remains the potential for more high elevation snow today, with around a 20% chance for 1-2â to fall in the Anaconda/Pintlars and the higher terrain (65000ft and above) of Lemhi County. A ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the region during the day on Saturday, and depending on how quickly clouds dissipate tonight, will factor in on the potential for valley fog Saturday morning.
The HREF shows mean dewpoints in the low 70s nosing into western portions of the forecast area Saturday afternoon. This anomalous moisture, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates will result in 1500-2500 J/KG of MLCAPE ahead of an advancing cold front.
120 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will keep the area dry and warm today. All eyes will then focus on low pressure that will slowly move on shore then over the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend.
Upper low over the western Atlantic off the Southeast U.
Relatively light ESE winds will continue overnight with high pressure at the sfc anchored well NE of the local area. (Friday through Saturday night) Will be between systems as we head into the weekend, with upper ridging stretched across the southern Plains and a deepening tropical system off the southern Atlantic coast.
318 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will provide us one more sunny, warm day today before it shifts eastward, making way for a low pressure system to track close to the forecast area this weekend. The high pressure that has been bringing sunny, warm days and foggy, chilly nights will begin to progress eastward today, but not before bringing us highs today in the lower to mid 70s and mostly sunny skies.
(Today through Saturday) Look for a shift from easterly to more of a northerly flow today as the low in the Atlantic moves further north.
850 mb easterly flow may bring in a tad drier air from the east and help warm temps in to the low-upper 70s in Grand Forks to Fargo and east. Same into most of tonight, before larger forcing and band of showers and t-storms begins to move north ahead of advancing upper low by 12z Sat. If this location pans out, then potential dry slot may work east and northeast around the upper low and aid in development of t-storms in a line from near Fargo south into far eastern SD mid to late afternoon and move east.
A cold front moves through the area Saturday with northwest winds developing.
By Saturday the upper level trough will move across western South Dakota and Nebraska.
The eastern portion of the CWA will see lingering showers late Saturday before the upper low shifts off to the east.
112 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Currently, temperatures are cooler than what is normally seen at this time of year. A low pressure system just north of our forecast area is tracking eastward across the western United States, bringing cooler temperatures in its wake. These temperatures are around five degrees cooler than what we normally see at this time of year and will continue through the weekend. Long range ensemble guidance favors another low pressure system moving into the area a week from now, lowering temperatures further as it moves onto land. The CPCâs 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks align with this long range guidance, as both outlooks show at least a 40-50% chance of temperatures being cooler than normal for this time of year.
The upper level pattern during the short term will consist of an upper level ridge currently over the Plains being pushed to the east as an upper level low spinning over the Intermountain West makes it way to the Northern Plains by Saturday morning. Highs tomorrow are look to reach into the upper 80s with a few places reaching to the low 90s. Lows tomorrow night are progged to range from the low 50s across west central Kansas to upper 60s across south central Kansas. A cold front is expected to move through the area Saturday shifting winds to the northeast with gusty conditions.
1011 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will move south of the region later today into Saturday.
High pressure will then return for the start of the next work week returning dry weather to the region. Should be a near perfect day with temperatures peaking in the 70s, a few upper 60s across the higher terrain. Will be a warmer night with lows dropping into the mid to upper 40s across the higher terrain and low 50s elsewhere. It will be cooler owing to the cloud cover which will keep temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. while a large area of Canadian high pressure will be centered over the Ontario-Quebec border. but from the resulting sharp cutoff between the low level Atlantic moisture being circulated back across southern New York and the notably drier air being funneled across the North Country and Lake Ontario.