Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
955 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Dry, cool weather expected as high pressure continues to settle over the area, lingering through the middle of the week as temperatures run well below normal. Still think we could see a few sprinkles overnight, especially in SC, as some low/mid- level troughing and upper jetting move through but should be pretty dry in the sub- cloud layer. Lowered temps for our colder spots for Mon night as cool, dry air continues to pool in behind the cold front.
A pool of deep layer moisture now moving south-southwestward across Lake Huron and NE Lower Mi is of Atlantic origin and has pivoted around the ern Canadian upper low. As the low level flow shifts a little more toward the NNE this evening, widespread lake enhanced rain will advance inland and affect the thumb and Port Huron regions. Mid level ridging and associated high pressure building across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes on Monday will sustain persistent northerly flow across Se Mi. While the northerly flow may offer some breaks in the clouds, the increasing depth of the low level inversion with residual moisture below the inversion will maintain an abundance of clouds through the day and will hold afternoon highs in the 50s.
The warmest interior valleys have easily reached the low 80s this afternoon with coastal areas in the 60s. That said thick midlevel and high level clouds are visible about 100 miles offshore associated with a well defined cold front approaching the area. NBM is placing a 40 to 60% chance of gusts over 30 mph on exposed ridges and coastal headlands.
Most areas will fall into the lower 40s, though some pockets of upper 30s may develop along KS border.
600 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) The deterministic runs predict the development of a highly meridional upper pattern over the CONUS during the period, with an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, along with a corresponding ridge axis across the Rockies. A secondary surge of high pressure will maintain below normal temperatures during the period.
618 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (This evening through Monday Night) Quiet, dry, and cooler than normal weather conditions will continue across the Ark-La-Tex region in the next 36 hours. This is due to surface ridging that will transit the Great Plains and very gradually approach the Mississippi River by Monday, passing across the area to deliver the coldest conditions of the season. This will allow clear skies and slackened winds for maximized radiational cooling by tomorrow night with minimums in the low to mid 40s, much colder than normal for this time of the year.
827 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 EVENING UPDATE: Given high pressure, clearing from high clouds, and light winds, tonight will be prime for radiational cooling. -Enriquez PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Today through Monday Night: There is quiet weather underneath the upper level ridge today, and above average temperatures will continue.
900 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Low pressure will track southeast of the region and east of Nova Scotia tonight through Monday.
especially north of the Big Bridge. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 40s. High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal Pattern Synopsis: Elongated troughing stretching from New England back over the Ohio Valley will pivot over the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Further upstream, northern stream ridging will gradually fold over south-central Canada as southern stream ridging builds over the Rockies. A cyclone will continue to trek across the northern Atlantic tonight as expansive high pressure sags across the Great Plains and Rockies. Current temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s look to cool into the low to mid 40s for most areas early Monday morning. Ridging at the surface and aloft are in control for the most part through the short term portion of the forecast.
627 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) An upper level trough situated over the eastern US will deepen as it slowly moves eastward. Meanwhile a strengthening ridge over the western US will slowly work eastward. The northerly winds will continue to bring cooler and drier air to Deep South Texas. Monday night temperatures are expected to fall to the low to mid 50s.
651 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Scattered showers are expected through early in the week under a trough of low pressure, and a cool northerly wind.
High pressure will build in towards midweek which will allow temperatures to warm closer to normal. The mostly dry conditions area-wide this evening won't last much longer for many spots, especially locales near/W of I-75 into N KY as a S/W embedded within the broader longwave trof pivots S through the region late this evening through the first part of the overnight. A weak low-level trough will aid in convergence across this particular region, which is conveniently downwind from Lake Erie (higher theta- e). Monday night, high pressure gradually moves in from the west, however, low-level moisture remains trapped over the area.
Overnight lows in the lower 40s for most areas looks good. There may be a few upper 30s in the highest plateau areas in our eastern counties.
/33/ (This evening through Monday Night) Quiet, dry, and cooler than normal weather conditions will continue across the Ark-La-Tex region in the next 36 hours. This is due to surface ridging that will transit the Great Plains and very gradually approach the Mississippi River by Monday, passing across the area to deliver the coldest conditions of the season. This will allow clear skies and slackened winds for maximized radiational cooling by tomorrow night with minimums in the low to mid 40s, much colder than normal for this time of the year.
Showers will be possible in the northern part of the CWA, especially in the higher terrain.
Dry, cooler, and clear sky conditions will dominate today through Tuesday.
Seasonably cool conditions are forecast tonight with temperatures dipping down into the 30s across most of the high country. Daytime temperatures this week look well above average as a strong ridge continues to dominate the western states. an indication of a strengthening ridge. The axis of this high pressure ridge positions itself directly overhead Arizona on Monday, resulting in even warmer afternoon temperatures, clear skies, and light and variable winds.
The lower heights spilling equatorward over the eastern US (70 m drop at 500 mb on the KLIX RAOB) shoved a cold front through the Keys last evening. Since we came on shift shortly before midnight, the dewpoint has dropped 8 degrees, with dewpoints now in the lower to mid 60s. By Tuesday night, the high will begin to progress east across the northern Gulf Coast. Given the configuration of the high pressure system, and shockingly, this taste of fall will last for the next 36-48 hours, with the lowest dewpoints not expected until late Tuesday morning and afternoon. High temperatures will struggle to reach 80 today, with overnight lows ranging from the lower 60s across the Upper Keys to near or just below 70 in Key West.
220 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 An upper level trough will remain over the region through Tuesday, with scattered lake enhanced rain showers possible both days.
(Now through Tuesday) A rather large positively tilted upper trof over the eastern half of the CONUS, including the Gulf, weakens a bit through Tuesday and becomes oriented mainly over the East Coast states. Highs today will be cool and in the mid to upper 60s, then highs on Tuesday will be a bit warmer and range from the upper 60s well inland to the lower 70s elsewhere.
Guidance is trending the ridge south over the region tonight. The track/placement of this ridge will play a role for overnight lows. Skies should remain clear w/ calm winds overnight to allow for temps to drop below freezing. These locales could see W/SW flow develop if the ridge slides to far east tonight. For Monday, ridge continues a slow trudge eastward through the day, allowing for a better southerly gradient in western zones versus eastern ones, putting the west as warmest for the day.
- Temperatures warm back up Monday, with warmer and breezy conditions expected on Tuesday.
(Today and tonight) A strong upper level ridge is currently firmly in place over the Southwestern U. Light winds through the overnight hours will gradually veer to the south with lows in the low to mid 40s.
1137 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Showers due to proximity to an upper level low and associated trough came to an end as the sunset.
321 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 An upper level trough will slowly rotate over Central PA Monday into Tuesday.
1245 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (Tonight through Monday) Stratocu cloud deck is continuing to diminish, as lower level drier air arrives and a low level trough axis exits to the east. This setup will allow temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 40s areawide by sunrise tomorrow.
With boundary layer northwest flow enhancing orographic lift across the mountains, precipitation is likely across some of the higher elevations of the mountains today and thermal profiles indicate there will likely be some snow showers and rime ice mainly above 5000 feet elevation. Temperatures will be much below normal today with troughing across the region.
Quiet and dry conditions continue overnight, with temperatures dropping down into the low to mid 30s for lows. Dew points remain in the low to mid 30s for the Red River Valley towards the east, with light and variable winds. This is all thanks to an upper level ridge shifting through the region and warm air advection moving into the northern plains. Clouds begin to move in for Monday night, which will help limit fog potentials for Tuesday morning by keeping overnight lows warmer. Key Messages: -Ridge breaks down mid week, with an upper level trough digging into the northern plains.
A positively-tilted upper trough extending from the Canadian Maritimes southwestward over New England will slowly fill but continue to promote isolated to scattered showers. Northerly flow about the west flank of troughing will see a continued cold-advective regime with highs only reaching into the upper 40s to low 50s in high terrain and mid 50s to near 60 at lower elevations. High temperatures Tuesday are expected to be slightly cooler than normal with values in the mid 50s to near 60F along the river valleys (upper 40s to lower 50s higher elevations).
1218 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (This evening through Monday) Cool surface ridging remained in control over much of the region this afternoon making for pleasant fall weather.
(Tonight through Monday) Stratocu cloud deck is continuing to diminish, as lower level drier air arrives and a low level trough axis exits to the east. This setup will allow temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 40s areawide by sunrise tomorrow.
1122 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) High pressure at the surface will dominate the short term section of the forecast. Aloft a trough is over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS with a smaller impulse is embedded in the larger trough over the Mississippi and Ohio River convergence. The larger trough will slowly move east keeping a deep north to northwest flow in place while the aforementioned embedded short wave continues to dive southeast. As the smaller short wave passes through the south the larger trough will dig farther south reinforcing the already deep northwest flow.
This will switch surface winds out of a southerly direction and help initiate a warmer weather regime across the region. Heights will initially begin to build across the west as an upper ridge takes shape over the Four Corners. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday and closer to normal with readings in the lower 70s across the west and upper 60s in the east.
This NW flow aloft will slightly begin to shift east over the next few days, as it comes under the influence of the ridge to our west. However, troughing is anticipated to hold firm to our east, at least for the time being. Given that, the region will only come under a slight influence from the ridge, resulting in below average temperatures the next 36-hours. Highs today will range in the 60s, before slightly climbing tomorrow into the low-70s and mid-60s.
The breaks in the cloud cover may be a little more widespread tonight, which could allow temperatures to be cooler than is currently forecast. The upper troughing pattern will drift eastward Monday with cyclonic flow across the area at the surface. The aforementioned trough is expected to be replaced by ridging Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to remain cooler than average through this forecast issuance with high temperatures in the 60s. For comparison, average high temperatures for this time of year are in the low 70s and average lows are in the upper 40s.
Today, a significant drop in temperature will be observed across the region due to the passage of a strong cold front. Recent surface and 850 hPa charts display a sharp gradient in theta-e advection, characterized by much lower values, indicative of cooler and drier air overspreading the area. Many locations today might find maximum temperatures struggling to surpass 80 degrees, as diurnal heating is counteracted by advective cooling from the cold frontal passage.
357 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 A large upper level low pressure system will remain over the northeastern United States through Tuesday. High pressure builds in midweek with moderating temperatures afterwards. 8h temps around zero or so will be enough to bring some snowflakes to elevations above 4000kft and a dusting on the ground is likely in places like Beech Mtn, Mt Rogers and the highest terrain of Greenbrier County WV. Expect clouds to be persistent along/west of the Blue Ridge, with mix of sun and clouds east. Temperatures may struggle to reach the lower to mid 40s across the mountains of WV/SW VA and NC with the New River Valley making it around 50, with around 60 across the VA/NC piedmont.
A weak boundary has been slowly workings it's way south left over from the low that pushed out a day and a half ago. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s and widespread overnight lows will fall to the low 40s with a few obs in the upper 30s possible for the higher elevations of northern GA. Could see some highs in the low 70s but most of the area will be in the upper 60s which, for those of you keeping track at home, is around 5-10 degrees below normal for what we'd expect this time of year.
Building ridge will then bring dry northwest flow aloft today with a dry and warming southwest flow towards the surface. Tonight, upper level ridge migrates eastward with a thermo ridge starting to build over the area. This could set up a warm front or perhaps contribute to the thermo ridging across the area. Low temperatures in this warmer setup tonight will be mild and in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Chances for fog tonight will be minimal given the steady light wind and warmer overnight lows.
/Issued 105 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023/ /Through Tuesday/ High pressure remains in full control to begin the workweek with mostly clear and dry weather prevailing. As high pressure begins shifting eastward tomorrow, southwest winds will resume locally, and this will cause a warming trend to ensue heading into the midweek period.
Tonight, ridging will begin to build into the region and allow WAA to return but not before we get another cold morning.
115 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2023 With high pressure remaining in control today, expect abundant sunshine and just a few passing high clouds. A trough is expected to move into the Pacific Northwest this evening, but will track along the US/Canadian border through the day Tuesday. As the trough drops into the Northern Plains on Tuesday afternoon, the pressure gradient will tighten between it and the ridge building into the western CONUS.
- A cold front pushes through the area Tuesday night, bringing a slight chance (15-20%) of showers and gusty northwest winds in its wake. Temperatures ranged from the low 50s across far southwest Nebraska to the middle and upper 40s in north central Nebraska. Temperatures continue to warm Tuesday, as an upper ridge continues to amplify across the western CONUS. By Tuesday afternoon, an upper trough will eject eastward across the International Border, with the upper ridge quickly flattening out. This will drag a cold front through the area Tuesday night, quickly passing from northwest to southeast.
Cooler and drier air is filter in, however temperatures did not drop quickly overnight due to cloud coverage. A short wave trough will push another boundary through the area today into tonight, and behind this boundary will be the cold, dry air people have been waiting for.
Today temperatures can be expected to be a touch warmer than yesterday with 70s encompassing much of the region. Sunny skies and calm conditions reign as upper-level ridging maintains its iron grip over us.
Once again, western Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota will have a bit more cloud cover and will be running a few degrees cooler.
High pressure will begin to slide south towards the region tonight. Mid-level ridging will increase over the region on Tuesday, bringing slightly warmer temperatures. Skies should clear across the entire region Tuesday night, with low temperatures dipping into the lower 40s.
High pressure was situated across western Ontario and northwest MN. A general decrease in clouds is expected as high pressure and ridging aloft move into the forecast area this afternoon, and daytime mixing chews away at the edges of the stratus deck. Highs will be mainly in the lower to middle 50s, along with light northwest winds. Temperature concerns remain for Tuesday, as there are huge differences in highs, with MET guidance running 10 to 15 degrees cooler than MAV. 925/850 mb temperatures support highs as warm as the lower 60s in our typical warm spots, so will side closer to the warmer guidance at this time.
At the sfc, weak high pressure is already meandering in from the west. * RAIN CHANCES WED-FRI - light with "minor" accumulations (under 1/4") Medium/long range guidance still in lock step with driving an upper level trough from the PAC NW, through the northern plains, and then across and through the Upper Mississippi River Valley in the Wed-Fri time frame. Ribbon of low level warm air advection precedes, runs ahead of the system's cold front with some 850 mb flux of moisture transport for the thermodynamic/frontogenetic lift to tap into.
241 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 High pressure will build slowly into the area from the west through mid week. A complex low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into this weekend.
High pressure builds over the Inland Northwest for the latter half of the week with temperatures near or above average.
Drier, cooler air is expected for the rest of the day, with an increase of cloud cover coming in from the northwest later this afternoon. Chilly temperatures forecast for tonight, with lows dropping into the 50s area-wide, with slightly warmer temps on the coast. For the temps, for now have leaned a bit cooler than the NBM guidance.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday/ High pressure remains in full control to begin the workweek with mostly clear and dry weather prevailing. As high pressure begins shifting eastward tomorrow, southwest winds will resume locally, and this will cause a warming trend to ensue heading into the midweek period.
850mb temperatures will rise to 10-13C on Tuesday, with highs progged to be slightly warmer but generally in the 70s.
331 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Cooler air will continue to filter in today. An upper trough may provide a slight chance of light rain or sprinkles this afternoon.
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region this week providing warm weather with high temperatures around 10 degrees above normal. The high temperature in Las Vegas this afternoon reached 87 degrees or 5 degrees above normal which is well short of the record. It is forecast to be a little bit warmer on Monday while the normal high temperature tumbles another degree to 81. A ridge of high pressure extending from the Desert Southwest up over Idaho and Montana will be temporarily dampened and pushed east by a trough swinging into the Pacific Northwest and along the U. However, the ridge will quickly redevelop Tuesday afternoon.
1231 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2023 WV imagery shows a strong upper level ridge across much of the western half of the country with a high centered near the four corner region. Otherwise, little dip in temperatures and a strengthening of the winds as the gradient tightens through the CWA with gusts up to 30 mph in the lower valleys and higher in the upper terrain areas. Once this system passes, the upper level ridge will again build back in across the CWA from the south with increasing convergence aloft. Warmer temperatures and relatively light winds remain for through the end of the business week and into the early parts of the weekend.
1209 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) Cooler than average temperatures, comfortable humidity levels and mainly clear skies will prevail through the short term period. The synoptic pattern leads into a northwest flow aloft as troughing deepens in the eastern CONUS while ridging amplifies across the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will continue to slide southward and will eventually center over the region by late Monday night. Temperatures for Tuesday morning will start off in the low to mid 40s for many. An isolated surface observation or two in the lowest drainage valleys may even record an overnight low down in the upper 30s.
930 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Current water vapor and upper air analysis shows upper ridging over the western CONUS, while trough sits over the great lakes and New England region. Upper ridge slowly slides eastward into the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday, bringing a warming trend into the region, with highs in the 60s for Monday and 70s for Tuesday.
216 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2023 A ridge of high pressure currently over the western U.
1221 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) For those with insomnia, the short-term forecast may be a cure, as an upper ridge continues to dominate the western CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under pedestrian northwest flow aloft.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: The upper lvl pattern changes only slightly with the ridge becoming more solidified across the Western and Central Plains regions of the CONUS as the upper lvl trof nudges eastward fixated over the East Coast region of the CONUS. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will be slightly warmer than Monday with high temperatures peaking into the upper 60's to low 70's.
1111 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 An upper level trough will slowly rotate over Central PA today into Tuesday.
High pressure will build into the region today with sunshine, cool temps and breezy conditions.
1213 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Low pressure will track southeast of the region and east of Nova Scotia tonight through Monday.
As a ridge axis of high pressure shifts east over the NRN Rockies, warm and dry conditions will continue with above normal afternoon highs in the upper 60s and 70s. An approaching upper level trough will then move onshore from the Pacific behind the exiting ridge with a dry cold front passing through the area Tuesday morning. Afternoon highs behind the cold front will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler for Tuesday afternoon with dry conditions continuing midweek under the increasing influence of high pressure.
This weather regime will maintain cool conditions with high temperatures in the lower/mid 50s again.
205 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Another day of warm temperatures will be squeezed out today before the ridge of high pressure breaks down. Southwesterly flow aloft is bringing in moisture and high level cloud cover ahead of our next cold front. The front and associated trough of low pressure will bring rain showers and gusty winds to much of western Montana and north-central Idaho. Valleys are likely to see wind gusts of 25-35 mph, with ridge tops and high terrain seeing gusts of 30-40 mph.
1122 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023 An upper level trough will slowly rotate over Central PA Monday into Tuesday.