Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Lows should be a bit milder than this morning thanks to the higher dewpoints that are advecting. An earlier thicker overcast could keep temps a couple/few degrees cooler than our going highs and likely limit magnitude and frequency of gusts. Strongest winds and gusts tomorrow evening are expected around the urban heat island of Chicago where warmer temps should allow for more effective mixing down of the higher momentum air. Cold front will move across the area after midnight.
Despite the building ridge, low-level moisture has remained entrenched over the area, allowing for areas of fog to develop this morning, especially to the lee of the higher terrain and across the Marfa Plateau. The ridge moving over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas will begin to flatten Thursday in response to a deepening trough translating eastward across the northern tier of the CONUS.
This upper low will be slow to drift to the south-southeast today, as it has cutoff from the flow off to the north. /DC/ Today through tonight: A low closing off over the northern Gulf of Mexico almost appears to be detached from the westerlies as it meanders through the semi-permanent longwave ridge axis, and all guidance agree it will not be in a hurry to leave the area as a result. Weakening deformation zone ascent north of the low center is keeping some light rain around east of the MS River, but it's possible we'll see an uptick in much needed rainfall over southeast portions of the area as moisture convergence is forecast to increase there later today.
1116 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 (Today through Thursday) Key Messages: - Coastal Flood Advisory/Moderate Rip Current Risk - Near normal temperatures No change to the forecast as subsidence is in control with a mid- level high pressure over Mexico building eastward keeping South Texas under a dry northwesterly flow.
214 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 Quiet, but very dry weather prevails through the middle of the Thursday courtesy of high pressure.
Showers will increase tonight north of our CWA as a cold front slides ESE-ward across northern Idaho.
1220 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 High pressure overhead shifts east through Thursday night.
1250 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 Dry and warmer weather will continue through Thursday under high pressure.
Dry air continues to be in place which will allow for minimum afternoon relative humidities to be in the low-20% range. With the dry air in place, afternoon minimum relative humidities continue be in the low-20% range. Thursday brings another day of high pressure with above average temperatures and very low minimum relative humidities. Fortunately, relief is on the horizon as there's an upper- level trough diving out of Canada.
(Tonight) A mid/upper trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico continues to bring cloud cover and a few sprinkles of light rain to the Tennessee Valley.
Complex weather pattern is in place this afternoon with a deep- layered low pressure area meandering over the northeast Gulf. As the upper-level support moves across the Florida peninsula, a second area of low pressure is forecast to develop near south Florida and deepen as it moves to the northeast well offshore the southeast U.
(Tonight through Thursday night) The short term forecast looks to be a very pleasant period thanks to the mid-level ridge that linger over Mexico. As high tempeatures are expected to be in the upper 70s, while the low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 50s.
324 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 Dry mild weather will continue through Thursday under high pressure.
308 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Thursday.
- A shift to more seasonable temperatures expected after the passage of cold front Thursday night.
(Tonight through Wednesday) Above normal temps will continue Thursday with increasing winds from the south as a cold front approaches.
Periods of moderate to heavy snow are expected for the high terrain and area mountain passes such as Lolo, Lookout, and Marias Pass.
1135 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 (Today through Thursday) A 500 mb ridge of high pressure will persist over Mexico during the period. This will place the entire BRO CWFA in a northwest-to- southeast mid-level flow, resulting in dry weather for Deep South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and the lower Texas coastal waters.
On Thursday the mild temperatures will continue as a cold front approaches the area.
1226 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 High pressure will keep warm and dry weather in the forecast today through Thursday.
An upper ridge ridge will retreat eastward and low level moisture looks to remain in place with light southerly winds continuing. If clearing occurs as it is today, highs should be slightly warmer in the low 70s.
This location is further south than what much of the guidance advertised yesterday with some guidance, notably the GFS, still too far north with the low location.
A quiet, mild night is in store across the area with overnight temps a few degrees warmer compared to last night. High temperatures will climb into the low to mid-70's, and southerly surface winds will start to pull in some low-level moisture.
1133 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 (Today through Thursday) Early morning surface observations show high pressure is in place across south central Texas. Winds are light and variable and temperatures currently range from the lower 40s in a few spots across the Hill Country to the mid 50s along the Rio Grande and coastal plains. Expect more sunshine on Thursday along with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
219 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 High pressure is in place over the next 48 hours with mild and dry conditions expected.
345 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 High pressure remains influential over the region for tonight and Thursday.
Satellite and sfc obs show low clouds wrapping around the western side of the low, and will continue to plague the region today and tonight.
Higher PW will continue to move north into Okeechobee/Martin counties today, where coincidentally, the highest PoPs exist in the forecast. Winds increase this afternoon as a low pressure system in the GOMEX approaches FL, and a secondary (non- tropical) low begins to develop along the stalled frontal boundary near SOFL late tonight/early Thursday.
The highest probability for fog is across southeast, south central, and parts of central Oklahoma with a secondary area across western Oklahoma and north Texas. Above-average temperatures continue on Thursday with the Southern Plains on the eastern periphery of a low-level thermal ridge (highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s deg F). A strengthening pressure gradient associated with a low in the High Plains will result in breezy southerly winds.
1145 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) Satellite imagery this morning clearly shows upper level low pressure/upper troughing over SE Louisiana. Precipitation will have difficulty making in to the surface as high pressure over the mid Atlantic and the aforementioned gulf coast system provide widespread easterly flow so only a few hundredths of an inch of rain at the most, are expected. Guidance continues to show this system slowly pulling out as the day progresses and followed by a weak upper ridge. This ridge will provide dry conditions for Thursday but will exit the region quickly as a cold front approaches Thursday night.
(This evening through Thursday night) Southerly winds will keep the low level moisture moving across the Panhandles, so would expected low clouds and fog to develop again tonight. Southwest winds will pick up on Thursday, especially across the southern and eastern Texas Panhandle ahead of a cold front. The cold front will move south across the Panhandles during the afternoon and evening. A shower or two along the cold front would not be out of the question for Thursday given the lift in the lower and mid levels. But, it looks like temperatures would have to be another 5 degrees warmer and the sun would have to be out for any elevated conditions.
A fantastic day if you ask me! To our east looms a region of low-level stratus that has wrapped around the backside of an area of low pressure over the north- central Gulf of Mexico. The eastern fringes of our CWA have experienced a cloudier and cooler day as a result.
This is expected to occur as the main upper low swings east. With widespread drizzle & clouds, lows will again be some 5-10 degrees above normal in the low-mid 50s. Moist ascent in the low-levels supports mostly cloudy conditions all day.
Based off today's temps and upstream values, still feel confident in high temperatures in the mid 60s, real close to the warmer Euro mos guidance.
We'll actually have a really nice afternoon once things clear out thanks to light winds and warming temperatures as an upper level ridge build in. Moving into tonight, a large upper trough will move across northern CONUS and flatten out the aforementioned ridge, tightening the gradient and switching upper level flow more W/SW. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal for mid November, with highs in the low to mid 70s for most.
1027 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2023 Key Messages: -Elevated fire weather conditions today and Thursday -Local strong downslope winds for the southern Black Hills tonight -Strong cold front/northwest winds on Thursday Current surface places trough across eastern Montana into western South Dakota. Cold front dives through the forecast area Thursday with 4-6mb/3hr pressure rises and 40-45kt winds at the top of the mixed layer. While temperatures will be cooler and humidity a bit higher on Thursday, winds will maintain elevated fire weather conditions on the plains. Upper level ridge rebounds heading into the weekend, with warmer temperatures and dry weather.
252 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Key Messages: - Continued high pressure is leading to dry conditions. - Warmer than normal temperatures today and tomorrow. Over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, a low pressure center is developing, extending a upper-level trough north through Alabama and into central Tennessee. High pressure will remain to the east of the region and lead to clear skies over the northern portion of the region and light southerly winds. The trough over Alabama and Tennessee from the Gulf of Mexico will allow for continued cloud coverage over the southern portion of the region. Low temperatures will be a little warmer where there is cloud coverage, in the low-mid 40s. The upper-level setup will remain the same with ridging over the region and troughing to the south.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - Coastal flooding risk continues through the next few days Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals ridging to our west and a low pressure system to our east across the Northern Gulf. Dry conditions will remain in place over the next couple of days as the upper level ridge shifts across the Southern Plains.
510 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 (Tonight) A mid/upper trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico continues to bring cloud cover and a few sprinkles of light rain to the Tennessee Valley.
--------------------------------------------------------------------- Key Messages: - Continued high pressure is leading to dry conditions. - Warmer than normal temperatures today and tomorrow. Over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, a low pressure center is developing, extending a upper-level trough north through Alabama and into central Tennessee. High pressure will remain to the east of the region and lead to clear skies over the northern portion of the region and light southerly winds. The trough over Alabama and Tennessee from the Gulf of Mexico will allow for continued cloud coverage over the southern portion of the region. Low temperatures will be a little warmer where there is cloud coverage, in the low-mid 40s. The upper-level setup will remain the same with ridging over the region and troughing to the south.
621 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 Dry mild weather will continue through Thursday under high pressure.
Cloudy skies and light rain/drizzle prevail across the ArklaMis this evening and expect these conditions to continue through the night, as wrap around moisture from the low in the Northern Gulf continues. Lows will fall into the low to mid 50s overnight. This is expected to occur as the main upper low swings east. With widespread drizzle & clouds, lows will again be some 5-10 degrees above normal in the low-mid 50s. Moist ascent in the low-levels supports mostly cloudy conditions all day.
247 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2023 Key Messages: 1) A cold front will pass through tonight and will bring strong winds overnight and slightly cooler temperatures for Thursday.
702 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Thursday.
Tonight, a more active weather pattern will bring cooler and more unsettled weather with rain showers at times through the coming the weekend. Clouds are thin enough to allow plenty of sun to pass through so temperatures are running close to 10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.
Strong winds of 60-70mph will be expected during the High Wind Warning headline timelines from tonight through early Thursday afternoon.
327 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler and windy Thursday with sprinkles or a slight chance for rain showers Thursday afternoon and evening across the southwestern areas.
617 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 Quiet, but very dry weather prevails through Thursday courtesy of high pressure.
Adjusted the high temperatures across those areas as a result.
924 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Thursday.
634 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 - Cooler and windy Thursday with sprinkles or a slight chance for rain showers Thursday afternoon and evening across the southwestern areas.
Seasonably mild conditions will continue for the weekend with upper ridging in place, but longer term ensembles continue to point toward a downward trend in temperatures, but most likely close to seasonable normals for this time of year.
510 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) The short term forecast looks to be a very pleasant period thanks to the mid-level ridge that linger over Mexico. As high tempeatures are expected to be in the upper 70s, while the low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 50s.
743 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 High pressure overhead shifts east through Thursday night.
616 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 Quiet, but very dry weather prevails through Thursday courtesy of high pressure.
604 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 High pressure overhead shifts east through Thursday night.
541 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) Southerly winds will keep the low level moisture moving across the Panhandles, so would expected low clouds and fog to develop again tonight. Southwest winds will pick up on Thursday, especially across the southern and eastern Texas Panhandle ahead of a cold front. The cold front will move south across the Panhandles during the afternoon and evening. A shower or two along the cold front would not be out of the question for Thursday given the lift in the lower and mid levels. But, it looks like temperatures would have to be another 5 degrees warmer and the sun would have to be out for any elevated conditions.
648 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 Dry, mild weather will continue through Thursday under high pressure.
at times over 30 mph as a cold front moves toward the region. Grab it while you can because temperatures will tumble once the cold front blows through tonight. - Showers tonight Moisture will pool along/ahead of the cold front; pwats climb to around an inch.
1118 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 - Cooler and windy Thursday with sprinkles or a slight chance for rain showers Thursday afternoon and evening across the southwestern areas.
1117 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 Dry, mild weather will continue through Thursday under high pressure.
(Rest of tonight) An upper level trough dipping down into the Gulf has a low pressure system spinning to the south of the Florida Panhandle. The main moisture plume and cloud cover associated with the low has pushed off to the east across eastern Georgia and Florida. As a result, temperatures will remain somewhat steady overnight with lows dropping only into the lower 50s.
Seasonably mild conditions will continue for the weekend with upper ridging in place, but longer term ensembles continue to point toward a downward trend in temperatures, but most likely close to seasonable normals for this time of year. Discussion: Cold front will drop SE across the airports late tonight.
Western parts of the forecast area stand the best chance to clear earlier and warm into the lower 70s this afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.
1210 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 (Rest of tonight) An upper level trough dipping down into the Gulf has a low pressure system spinning to the south of the Florida Panhandle. The main moisture plume and cloud cover associated with the low has pushed off to the east across eastern Georgia and Florida. As a result, temperatures will remain somewhat steady overnight with lows dropping only into the lower 50s.
1037 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) Southerly winds will keep the low level moisture moving across the Panhandles, so would expected low clouds and fog to develop again tonight. Southwest winds will pick up on Thursday, especially across the southern and eastern Texas Panhandle ahead of a cold front. The cold front will move south across the Panhandles during the afternoon and evening. A shower or two along the cold front would not be out of the question for Thursday given the lift in the lower and mid levels. But, it looks like temperatures would have to be another 5 degrees warmer and the sun would have to be out for any elevated conditions.
1140 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Cloudy skies and light rain/drizzle prevail across the ArklaMiss this evening and expect these conditions to continue through the night, as wrap around moisture from the low in the Northern Gulf continues. Lows will fall into the low to mid 50s overnight. This is expected to occur as the main upper low swings east. With widespread drizzle & clouds, lows will again be some 5-10 degrees above normal in the low-mid 50s. Moist ascent in the low-levels supports mostly cloudy conditions all day.
1025 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 Dry, mild weather will continue through Thursday under high pressure.
Model and satellite imagery showing a weak upper trough sliding across the Idaho Panhandle this evening. The closed low off the California Coast is also trying to bring up some moisture, but once again hi res models keep the threat mainly along the Nevada border. Mixing height increased slightly in the Upper Treasure Valley earlier this afternoon but the lower Treasure Valley and Weiser River Valley may take until Thursday morning to raise the mixing height, so the Air Stagnation Advisory will continue through Thursday morning.
(Today and tonight) Key Messages: 1) More sunny skies expected today with above average temperatures 2) Low afternoon relative humidities in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia Discussion: Currently some light radar returns are present across southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina as the low continues to slowly spin across the northern Gulf of Mexico. These weak showers are likely resulting in virga, as the lower levels of the atmosphere remain fairly dry even overnight.
1230 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Thursday.
309 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today.
1050 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) The short term forecast looks to be a very pleasant period thanks to the mid-level ridge that linger over Mexico. As high tempeatures are expected to be in the upper 70s, while the low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 50s.
428 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2023 Key Messages: - Sharp cold front with gusty winds today - Elevated fire weather conditions today - Much colder for Thanksgiving 09z surface analysis had low over western ND with cold front into south-central MT. Guidance in excellent agreement with dry cold front plowing through CWA between 11z-16z today. 3-5mb/3hr pressure rises behind cold front will bring widespread wind gusts to 45-55mph for a few hours this morning/early afternoon as it taps into 35-45kt boundary layer winds.
447 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2023 Upper trof pushing a cold front across eastern Montana early this morning. A band of mostly light snow is tracking east, but with temperatures near freezing, little accumulation is occuring. Conditions will clear through the afternoon, although temperatures will stay cold with the upper trof moving east. Seasonably mild conditions will continue for the weekend with upper ridging in place, but longer term ensembles continue to point toward a downward trend in temperatures, but most likely close to seasonable normals for this time of year. Occasional MVFR conditions early this morning as a cold front and band of snow crosses the region.
Upper trough will make a bit more eastward progress today, but it's doubtful that the trough moves far enough away for us to entirely lose the low cloud deck. In fact, I'm not particularly confident we even get rid of the low clouds tomorrow, with forecast soundings indicating low level RH values of 75-80 percent. This is a degree or so cooler than the previous package.
The passage of a cold front tonight will end the warm stretch of weather we've been enjoying this week. Temperatures return to seasonable on Friday with highs in the low to mid 40s. An amplifying upper-level trough drops into the Norther Plains around the same time as a low-pressure system ejects out of the Intermountain West. A cold front pushes through late this afternoon and this evening with surface winds veering to the northwest with gusts 20 to 34kts.
533 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 (Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Patchy to Areas of fog across Coastal Plains Friday morning Ridging from a mid-level high centered near the southern tip of the Baja peninsula will keep much of TX under a northwesterly flow aloft. Resulting in a drier vertical profile except at the surface which will see a light variable flow due to a higher latitude low pressure system and attendant cold front that will approach our CWA late in the week.
Overall, looks like enough sunshine to allow another couple degree climb in temperatures with highs mainly in the low/mid 70s this afternoon.
Per low level atmospheric ridging influences and quasi ridging influences aloft, mid state will remain dry through tonight.
The passage of a cold front tonight will end the warm stretch of weather we've been enjoying this week. Temperatures return to seasonable on Friday with highs in the low to mid 40s. An amplifying upper-level trough drops into the Norther Plains around the same time as a low-pressure system ejects out of the Intermountain West. A cold front will move east across area during the afternoon.
The low pressure system responsible for the recent wet weather will shift east of the forecast area today and tonight as weak high pressure builds over us.
(Today through Friday Night) Widespread low clouds prevail over the region in response to the low pressure system spinning over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Clouds will gradually clear by late mid-morning Friday, leading to more sunshine and warmer temperatures. A weak cold front will move through the region late Friday afternoon/night.
The 700 millibar temperatures remain fairly warm, generally averaging around minus 2, so the lower elevations would see rain or rain mixed with snow, so impacts to travel would be limited. Quiet weather returns Friday as ridging builds across the area, although southwest flow will keep gusty wind across the favored locations like Casper.
Friday, expect cooler temperatures in the wake of an early morning cold frontal passage.
Temperatures will be cooler today with thicker cloud cover to help resist heating.
High pressure will bring a drying trend tonight through Friday, followed by an active weather pattern for the upcoming weekend.