Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
347 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 - Overnight lows expected in the low to mid teens tonight. Breezy winds will continue to decelerate this afternoon and evening as the low moving up the Eastern Seaboard continues its march northeastward. As the low moves off into the Atlantic Ocean, the pressure gradient over Wisconsin will relax allowing for calmer winds overnight. High pressure over the plains will continue to sink southeastward tonight in response, bringing drier air and clearing skies across southern Wisconsin. Overnight lows are expected to be a couple degrees cooler than model guidance suggests given the radiational cooling associated with the clear skies. Generally, lows are expected to be in the low to mid teens. The high pressure will continue east across CONUS on Tuesday setting up southerly flow across Wisconsin and allowing for dry weather.
527 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 - The higher terrain area of the Prairie Coteau will see southerly winds with gusts of 30 to 40 mph later tonight into the early morning hours on Tuesday.
A dry cold front will cross the area overnight and allow even drier and cooler air to filter into the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Based on surface analysis, appears the cold front is moving into the western portion of the forecast area this hour with winds shifting southwesterly to northwesterly. Cold front from Monday will be well through the area, with model soundings showing rapid and strong cold advection through the day on Tuesday. Thinking that guidance is too warm with lows, so going to trend towards the lower end of guidance.
(Tonight) Reinforcing cold front has swept SE thru the area this Mon evening, with NNW flow entrenched across the region. These winds should continue to diminish heading into the late night hrs, as high pressure out of the Plains states begins to build into much of the region. Unseasonably cold temps are expected into early Tue, with lows falling mainly into the lower 20s, although a few upper teens may develop in parts of southern mid TN as well.
503 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 A cold night is ahead for the Midsouth, following the passage an Arctic cold front Monday afternoon.
These conditions will allow temperatures to fall into the 30s with a few spots reaching freezing, especially across the northeast zones. Tuesday will be a warmer day than today (highs mainly in the 60s) with a building ridge aloft and increasing southerly flow. Starting Tuesday night, we have moist low-level southerly flow resulting in gradually more humid conditions and warmer-than- seasonal temperatures.
Near record high temperatures today will give way to cooler temperatures later this week as a storm system moves across the area.
428 PM MST Mon Dec 18 2023 124 PM MST Mon Dec 18 2023 - Warm and dry weather through the week - Precipitation possible Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, along with colder temperatures High-amplitude ridging covers the western CONUS, with northwest flow over the northern plains. A warm front is currently draped across our CWA. Upper ridging will slowly trek across the US this week, keeping our weather warm and dry.
Clear skies with cool and dry conditions will persist into Tuesday as high pressure continues to build in from the northwest. This high will settle over the southeast states through midweek continuing the fair, cool and dry weather. Another breezy day today as a low pressure system continues to move further away to the NE. The WNW flow will begin to shift more ENE this evening as high pressure builds in. This will allow cooler, drier air to move in, dropping overnight temperatures to the upper 30s (north) to mid/upper 40s (south).
1125 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 - The higher terrain area of the Prairie Coteau will see southerly winds with gusts of 30 to 40 mph later tonight into the early morning hours on Tuesday.
08/DML (Tonight through Wednesday night) Cold front now pushing through the region brining some northerly breezes this afternoon and evening. This will also bring in cooler weather for Tuesday with highs in the middle and upper 50s with some localized areas barely eclipsing the 60 degree mark.
1019 PM MST Mon Dec 18 2023 124 PM MST Mon Dec 18 2023 - Warm and dry weather through the week - Precipitation possible Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, along with colder temperatures High-amplitude ridging covers the western CONUS, with northwest flow over the northern plains. A warm front is currently draped across our CWA. Upper ridging will slowly trek across the US this week, keeping our weather warm and dry.
142 AM MST Tue Dec 19 2023 Current 500 mb analysis has a trough over Appalachia and a broad upper level ridge situated over the western 2/3 of the country, centered near the Continental Divide, allowing a west to slightly southwest flow over the area.
Showers during the afternoon brought light valley rain across the area, as well as pockets of freezing rain for eastern Oregon where temperatures struggled to rise above freezing. The re-strengthening of cold pools will support the return of light freezing rain for east Oregon overnight.
Southwesterly flow aloft exists across the western third of the US with a prominent closed upper low roughly 500 miles due west of OR/WA border.
(Today through Wednesday Night) High pressure will control the weather pattern through the short term promoting calm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will be cool today with highs only a degree or two above freezing. A deep anomalous upper level trof over the east Pacific was helping to support a large positive 500 mb height anomaly over eastern North America. As primary mid level system over the Lower Great Lakes continues to track eastward, strong subsidence/rising heights will not only bring wind speeds diminishing, but lower boundary layer inversion heights.
This has allowed temperatures to stay warmer than forecast this evening.
In the Devils Lake Basin, winds have started to decrease as the low level jet moves further east. Upper ridging will move eastward through the early week, allowing for above normal temperatures through the week.
1050 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 - Cooler and breezy through tonight with wind chills in the teens by Tuesday morning.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) A rather benign forecast for the short term, as ridging translates eastward over the region today, accompanied by increasing mid- and upper level cloud cover. At the surface, flow has already veered to the south and southeast across much of the region, yielding a quick return to above normal temperatures this afternoon as highs top out in the lower to middle 60s for most, with lower 70s for portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. The aforementioned ridge continues its eastward progression through tonight, with flow aloft transitioning to southwesterly ahead of a deepening trough off the Pacific Coast.
312 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023 Snow showers will taper off today as high pressure begins to build across the region.
1058 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 After a mild afternoon, temps have cooled off quickly this evening as winds have decoupled ahead of strong sfc ridging that continues to slide ESE into the Ozarks overnight, and the Mid-South region by daybreak Tuesday. While this may offset the good radiational cooling ongoing now, min temps should remain near or slightly above freezing over these areas, whereas subfreezing temps are likely elsewhere across the region where the sky will remain clear and the cold advection continues to spill SW.
Quiet weather will gradually come to an end, as a ridge axis moves east of the state by Tuesday afternoon. Western valleys may see mixing between rain and snow as temperatures flirt with freezing in some areas.
1243 AM MST Tue Dec 19 2023 Upper ridge weakens tonight and moves east with a southwest flow aloft beginning tomorrow and continuing through the remainder of the short term period.
Water vapor/RAP analysis indicates significant longwave trough axis situated over the Ohio Valley-Great Lakes & southward into the Carolinas, with continued mean northwesterly flow in the wake. Widespread frost & freeze is likely areawide, with some areas falling up to 10 degrees below seasonable values in the mid-upper 20s north of I-20 while below freezing to the south. /DC/ Weather conditions will remain quiet for tonight as global guidance highlights a cold front tracking south across the region. Along with the aforementioned cold front, colder nighttime temperatures will be the primary focus for the short term period as dry northwest flow continues to bring a significant surge of continental polar air across the forecast area.
908 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 - The higher terrain area of the Prairie Coteau will see southerly winds with gusts of 30 to 40 mph later tonight into the early morning hours on Tuesday.
1045 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 (Tonight) Reinforcing cold front has swept SE thru the area this Mon evening, with NNW flow entrenched across the region. These winds should continue to diminish heading into the late night hrs, as high pressure out of the Plains states begins to build into much of the region. Unseasonably cold temps are expected into early Tue, with lows falling mainly into the lower 20s, although a few upper teens may develop in parts of southern mid TN as well.
As the winds continue to diminish, expect temperatures to fall into the lower 20s by daybreak with wind chills in the teens. High pressure to our west slowly shifts east today allowing for another sunshine filled day. Main change with the morning forecast package for today is that dewpoints were lowered from inherited NBM, which will drop RH values this afternoon into the low to mid 20 percent range.
High pressure passing east over the Ohio Valley on Tuesday will turn winds southerly by evening and gradually increase temperatures over the region. High pressure gradually builds in from the west overnight, providing clearer skies near the Tristate. Low temperatures will bottom out around the lower to middle 20s. High pressure building in the western Ohio Valley will help winds decrease to a 10-15 mph speed with not much in the line of gusts. These winds will continue to decrease in the afternoon as the ridge works into Ohio and warm advection kicks in with a southwestward shift in direction. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s with generally sunny skies. Overnight, clear sky cover and a lighter southerly wind 5-10 mph will permit temperatures to drop into the lower 20s for much of the area.
A dry cold front across SE GA will exit the area later this morning. Dry weather continues as high pressure builds into the southern Appalachians. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley where sub- freezing and freezing temperatures are anticipated.
259 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023 Cold high pressure will build into the region today and persist through mid week. Strong subsidence and cold advection in the wake of the exiting trough and tropopause dynamic anomaly will overspread the area today, resulting in sunny, but quite chilly conditions. Lows in the lower to mid 20s.
1026 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Upper level ridge that is currently keeping skies mainly clear will maneuver across the region over the course of tonight and tomorrow. Highs move up into the low to mid 60s area wide Tuesday afternoon. Lows on Wednesday morning continue to run above normal(33F at KMAF) in the low to mid 40s.
Latest subjective surface analysis indicates a cold front from near Walnut Ridge, to near Fort Smith. The airmass associated with this feature will promote cooler than normal conditions for tonight and on Tuesday.
1100 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday) A cold front was moving quickly southward late this evening. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Tuesday) A tight pressure gradient over the area will remain through the evening with gusty winds up to 27 mph expected in the higher elevations, with 20 mph gusts expected across the rest of the area this afternoon through the early night.
1041 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Dry and mild weather is expected tonight and tomorrow as upper level ridging moves overheard. Usually southwest winds will help boost high temperatures but persistent upper level cloudiness will offset much warming with highs only a bit warmer in the upper-50s and 60s.
1252 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023 A cold front will move through tonight setting off lake effect snow showers mainly over the Finger Lakes with light accumulations expected. High pressure returns with quieter and dry weather Wednesday into the end of the week. West to southwest flow continues well into the evening hours keeping temperatures mild ahead of a cold front. Cooler temperatures along with northwest flow over Lake Ontario supports the development of lake effect snow showers overnight lasting until tomorrow afternoon. Lake effect is expected to be short lived as a ridge moves in behind the trough Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Highs on Tuesday will range in the low to mid 30s during the day before falling into the low to mid 20s overnight.
340 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Strong low pressure has moved well out of the area. Currently, a trailing cold front is moving through the CWA. This front will push south today with high pressure remaining in place through the end of the short term period. Overnight temps are running a little warmer than forecast, due to the elevated winds.
The high will quickly pass to our south through the day today, with winds becoming southerly again by this afternoon. Highs today will recover a bit owing both to this warm advection and plentiful sunshine, but will likely be limited to the low to mid 30s for most areas. This is likely to allow lows overnight to drop below NBM numbers, despite the thin high clouds and ongoing warm advection - expect lows in the low to mid 20s.
A tightening pressure gradient located across the forecast area, due to a low pressure area along the lee side of the Rockies, will create breezy and gusty south winds for the afternoon hours today and potentially on Wed. Both models agree that the precipitation will be all rain for Thu thru Fri, as the warm advection will keep temperatures above freezing throughout the quick hitting event.
1046 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Mid-level ridge flattens out Tuesday as the axis passes east of Texas tomorrow evening. Atmosphere remains relatively dry with just some high clouds spilling over ridge and a few afternoon fair weather cumulus.
STP Upper ridge will continue to dominate our weather into Tuesday night with mild and dry conditions. This lower pressure over central MT will act constructively with relatively higher pressure over NW WY to produce a strengthened pressure gradient over the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains. Tuesday night should be a little cooler under mostly clear skies, with low temperatures again in the 20s and 30s.
300 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023 Cool high pressure builds in behind a departing cold departing front. High pressure then remains in control through the remainder of the week. A persistent nwrly breeze will keep temps above freezing for the barrier isls. Conditions will eventually moderate by late week with strong high pressure remaining over the region.
(Today and tonight) Southerly winds will increase this morning as the surface pressure gradient tightens between increasing lee troughing and high pressure to the east.
1053 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Message: - There's a MODERATE risk of Rip Currents today Settled and dry conditions are expected during the short term period with a mid-level low over the Great Lakes region and ridging over the Rocky MTNS. Temperatures today and tomorrow across a majority of the region are expected to top out in the low to mid 70s with overnight lows tonight in the mid 40s inland to 50-60 degrees closer to the coast. Lows tomorrow night will be warmer by about 5 degrees.
1007 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 After a mild afternoon, temps have cooled off quickly this evening as winds have decoupled ahead of strong sfc ridging that continues to slide ESE into the Ozarks overnight, and the Mid-South region by daybreak Tuesday. While this may offset the good radiational cooling ongoing now, min temps should remain near or slightly above freezing over these areas, whereas subfreezing temps are likely elsewhere across the region where the sky will remain clear and the cold advection continues to spill SW.
Canadian high pressure will build SE into our region through tonight then remain in place while gradually weakening/modifying for the rest the rest of the week, providing fair weather with moderating temperatures by late week. Dry cold front has pushed through and will introduce cold and very dry air into the region today. Breezy conditions expected in the near term, with diminishing wind speeds over land areas later this morning, though better mixing and higher wind speeds over warmer area lakes expected to warrant a continued Lake Wind Advisory through this morning. The center of Canadian high pressure to build into the southern Appalachians/W Carolinas tonight.
Dry high pressure will build into the area through mid-week and linger into the weekend with milder temperatures. Cloudiness will increase by Christmas as the next cold front approaches from the west. As of 1245 am Tuesday: Water vapor imagery continues to depict a deep and amplified northern stream trough progressing east of the Appalachians early this morning, with deep NW flow having overtaken our forecast area. Additional accums are possible in the high elevations along the immediate state line, but these will be light. The weather conditions will continue to quiet down later today, as the center of high pressure draws closer to the forecast area.
Max temps should still be pretty cool overall but going on the higher end of the guidance envelope in the low to mid 40s. Stayed a little warmer tonight as well with lows near freezing.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge over Texas and the southern Plains will move east to the lower Mississippi Valley by this evening. Highs this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 60s. With this and an increase in surface dewpoints, temperatures will be warmer with overnight lows 47-50 degrees across the area.
Discussion: Still have a few weak returns on radar, so no doubt there are still some spotty snow showers in the higher terrain early this morning. It has lows in the upper teens to upper 20s in the lower elevations depending on the location. With high pressure moving from roughly Memphis to Blacksburg today and tonight, there may be enough of a down-valley gradient to keep just a slight wind in the TN valley tonight. It's not clear cut which way that will go but I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a few spots hit the low to mid teens tonight.
1118 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Water vapor/RAP analysis indicates significant longwave trough axis situated over the Ohio Valley-Great Lakes & southward into the Carolinas, with continued mean northwesterly flow in the wake. Widespread frost & freeze is likely areawide, with some areas falling up to 10 degrees below seasonable values in the mid-upper 20s north of I-20 while below freezing to the south. /DC/ Weather conditions will remain quiet for tonight as global guidance highlights a cold front tracking south across the region. Along with the aforementioned cold front, colder nighttime temperatures will be the primary focus for the short term period as dry northwest flow continues to bring a significant surge of continental polar air across the forecast area.
Dry and cold weather is expected across the Mid-South today as high pressure moves across west Tennessee.
1102 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Very pleasant conditions today behind a weak reinforcing cold front. Will see some high clouds tomorrow; these coupled with some advection of slightly cooler air should lead to max temps remaining in the 60s.
(Today and tonight) Dirty ridging aloft is on pace to exit the region this afternoon ahead of a minor impulse in southwest flow tonight. An abundance of high clouds already in place will remain intact tonight all the while lee troughing sharpens to our northwest and results in breezy downslope winds.
The Florida Keys continue to enjoy (depending of which side of the thermometer you favor) the post cold frontal airmass that has moved across the region. The winter low pressure system that affected us is now centered over New England will continue racing northward into eastern Ontario, Canada overnight. The Middle and Lower Keys will see some moderation that should keep temperatures in the low 60s or near 60 degrees. A winter low pressure system centered over New England will continue racing northward into eastern Ontario, Canada overnight.
Intensity and areal coverage continue to diminish as a strong upstream ridge axis and drier low level air build into the Western Great Lakes. Expect dry wx and partly cloudy skies today and tonight as the upstream ridge axis moves overhead and pushes east of Michigan. High temps this afternoon will warm into the low to mid 30s.
(Tonight through Tuesday) A cold front was moving quickly southward late this evening. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Tuesday) A tight pressure gradient over the area will remain through the evening with gusty winds up to 27 mph expected in the higher elevations, with 20 mph gusts expected across the rest of the area this afternoon through the early night.
1038 PM MST Mon Dec 18 2023 Upper ridge weakens tonight and moves east with a southwest flow aloft beginning tomorrow and continuing through the remainder of the short term period.
345 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023 Lake effect snow showers will wind down later today with high pressure building in. The cold air in place today will not last long as warmer air begins to move back in aloft along with staying mostly dry into the weekend. 850 mb temperatures fall below -10C mid morning before starting to warm in the afternoon as the trough axis moves through and warmer return flow develops. Lake effect snow showers were kept in the grids for the thruway corridor into the early evening as that is when the 850 mb ridge axis moves in and the boundary layer is still fairly saturated up to that point so there is a good chance that snow will persist longer than what the models have. High pressure builds in quick tonight with clearing skies.
521 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) A rather benign forecast for the short term, as ridging translates eastward over the region today, accompanied by increasing mid- and upper level cloud cover. At the surface, flow has already veered to the south and southeast across much of the region, yielding a quick return to above normal temperatures this afternoon as highs top out in the lower to middle 60s for most, with lower 70s for portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. The aforementioned ridge continues its eastward progression through tonight, with flow aloft transitioning to southwesterly ahead of a deepening trough off the Pacific Coast.
Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Wednesday/ Mid level ridging is traversing the Southern Plains tonight resulting in cool and generally calm conditions. Synoptic scale troughing over the far western CONUS and a modest upper jet are helping to spread a fairly thick canopy of cirrus across the region and this will continue into the day Tuesday. Most locations will be spared a freeze given the disruption of optimal radiational cooling from the high clouds. Tuesday night should be considerably warmer with lows in the mid/upper 40s and modest southerly winds.
(Today through Wednesday) Surface ridging shifts east today and will turn our winds from northerly this morning to east and eventually southeast by this afternoon.