Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An low pressure system exiting the region will leave behind a few mainly mountain snow showers across northeastern Nevada this morning along with blustery conditions across portions of central and eastern Nevada.
Otherwise, a cold front will start to move across the Big Country at the end of tonight.
Near the surface, it was difficult to discern much of a trough except for the discrepancy between near 70F dew points over the Keys versus lower 60s dew points over south mainland Florida. Water vapor imagery shows the apex of the cyclonic curvature of the upper trough continuing to push southeast over the eastern Straits, with precipitable water values just above 1.
Frequent gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected with these stronger winds persisting across the higher terrain areas through the evening. Cold front moves into NE OK around sunset and to near a KFYV-KMLC line by sunrise Tuesday.
944 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 High pressure and mostly clear skies will prevail today. (Today through Tuesday) Short term period remains dry as high pressure shifts over the Southeast into Tuesday. Under the ridge, a warming trend is expected, with spring-like highs in the 60s and low 70s today and Tuesday.
(Today through Tuesday) Short term period remains dry as high pressure shifts over the Southeast into Tuesday. Under the ridge, a warming trend is expected, with spring-like highs in the 60s and low 70s today and Tuesday.
215 AM PST Mon Feb 6 2023 Dry conditions are forecast to return this week due to high pressure, which may allow for fog and cold overnight low to exist across the area. Ridging will now dominate the region as the dries out.
805 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2023 The Freezing Fog Advisory has been cancelled. With temperatures right around freezing, some of the fog could be of the freezing variety. A very weak cold frontal feature draped across the northern border of the CWA will quickly be washed out by increasing southerly flow. A weak cold front will push into the region from the northwest Tuesday morning into the afternoon.
A weak high pressure ridge will take its place for the next 24 hours.
210 AM MST Mon Feb 6 2023 The cold front is making it's way across the CWA early this morning. The front should be through all but the SE corner of the CWA by sunrise but we still have the upper trough to move through this morning. That won't be the case behind the front today with temperatures likely at least 20 degrees cooler in Delta this afternoon. The snow should wrap up through the evening as the trough axis and PV aloft drops south of the Colorado border and we begin to push warm back in aloft. Dry conditions return for Tuesday as high another transitory ridge is pushed through ahead of the next clipper to drop into the Northern Rockies.
407 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Short term period remains dry as high pressure shifts over the Southeast into Tuesday. Under the ridge, a warming trend is expected, with spring-like highs in the 60s and low 70s today and Tuesday.
Key Points: - Warm and breezy today ahead of a cold front.
323 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2023 Key Points: - Warm and breezy today ahead of a cold front.
259 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 Dry high pressure will be in place across the region for the next few days.
As a result, tonight won't be nearly as chilly as this morning, and tomorrow's temperatures will be even warmer than today's.
A few adjustments were made to reflect warmer temperatures trends as the front is moving a little slower than previously anticipated. An upper level low is currently evident on Water Vapor imagery traveling across western Pennsylvania. This low travels east through the morning, pulling a colder air mass across West Virginia. A ridge builds across this afternoon from the west bringing dry conditions; however, temperatures will be cooler today and tonight as northwesterly flow aloft persists. Low stratus streams across early today, with scattering during the afternoon as subsidence drying occurs as the ridge flattens on an eastward path.
Trof/front over the eastern part of the state will continue to migrate east overnight, as ridging aloft exerts itself from west to east over the forecast area.
1046 AM MST Mon Feb 6 2023 The cold front is making it's way across the CWA early this morning. The front should be through all but the SE corner of the CWA by sunrise but we still have the upper trough to move through this morning. That won't be the case behind the front today with temperatures likely at least 20 degrees cooler in Delta this afternoon. The snow should wrap up through the evening as the trough axis and PV aloft drops south of the Colorado border and we begin to push warm back in aloft. Dry conditions return for Tuesday as high another transitory ridge is pushed through ahead of the next clipper to drop into the Northern Rockies.
Rain will be the primary precipitation type but areas in north-central Wisconsin will see a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow.
224 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA through the remainder of the short term period.
A weak cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday morning. The activity may diminish in the afternoon as weak H7 s/wv ridging will be coincident with the col and produce confluence along and east of the axis.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) The axis of a broad deep-layer ridge is parked directly overhead extending from the Gulf of Mexico north into Canada. Although the ridge shifts eastward tomorrow, it remains in control for much of the day as the airmass continues to trend warmer. Following the ridge, a trough and associated cold front will attempt to progress across the Midwest but will struggle to overcome the dominant subtropical ridge centered over the Bahamas, and will ultimately fail to reach the Southeast. This should spur moisture return across the Lower MS Valley and perhaps provide enough dampening of the ridge to allow for a few scattered showers across our western counties late in the day tomorrow.
1256 PM PST Mon Feb 6 2023 High pressure will strengthen over the region through the week with periods of gusty Santa Ana winds and continued dry weather.
(Tonight) High pressure currently centered near the Great Lakes region will slowly shift south and east as an upper ridge slides east toward the Appalachians and an upper trough begins digging through the northern Plains. Moisture will continue to increase over areas to our west as a cold front becomes more evident over eastern KS and central OK. The overnight forecast looks uneventful, as wind speeds between 5-10mph should help keep fog development at bay and warm southerly flow keeps lows in the low to mid 40s.
As has been mentioned previously, a cold front is expected to move into the area by early Tuesday morning. The cold front will continue south during the morning hours, bringing much cooler temperatures to the area.
Southerly winds will continue this afternoon and into the evening ahead of a cold front set to move into the area tonight. Gusts of 30-40 mph will be common across the region this afternoon, with some transient gusts over 40mph possible, especially across northeast Oklahoma and along the ridgetops in the higher terrain areas.
Warmer temperatures Tuesday with increasing cloudiness. The upper level ridging that has moved over the forecast area will begin to shift east tonight and Tuesday with a gradual increase in high level cloudiness later tonight and during the day Tuesday. Winds are still light today and should stay that way overnight which will allow a quick drop in temperatures to near freezing or slightly below. A deepening trough over the western states today will close off into an upper low by late Tuesday. Weak low pressure will be moving by to the northwest over the Ohio Valley. The winds pick up from the south to southwest Tuesday which will help the region warm into the lower to mid 60s regionwide.
With nighttime lows near freezing, valleys will spend much of the night above freezing again with potentially only a few hours below freezing.
1139 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2023 (Today and tonight) Southwest flow is set to amplify today ahead of a positively-tilted trough progged to settle over the Four Corners by this evening. This wave originated within a split flow regime over the Pacific NW yesterday and its northern counterpart will be responsible for sending us a strong cold front tonight. Ahead of the front, a low- level thermal ridge will sharpen over our domain today within dry and breezy downslope flow. The cold front will be sweeping through the TX Panhandle this evening and be well through the Permian Basin by daybreak Tuesday.
1111 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Upper-level ridging today will make for a beautiful day with light winds, mostly clear skies, and temperatures warming up into the low 60's. Low temperatures tonight will even be relatively warm in the low 40's thanks in part to southerly surface winds. Continued WAA courtesy of the southerly surface flow will keep warm temperatures on Tuesday as highs warm into the low to mid-60's.
Upper ridging will maintain dry conditions and seasonable temperatures the remainder of the day and overnight.
These afternoon temperatures are already a few degrees warmer than many of the short term, high resolution models were predicting, which has a big role on the potential for freezing rain across portions of the area this evening. However, continued warm advection through this evening means it appears unlikely that surface temperatures will be unable to cool below freezing for any appreciable amount of time for widespread freezing rain to develop.
Current temperatures are in the mid 70s, with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Surface analysis depict a potent low pressure system just out of the northeast continental U. In addition, a high pressure system is building near the Gulf States. Closer to home, our sensible weather today will be dominated by a mean level ridge currently located in the Gulf of Mexico. This ridge will propagate east throughout the day and dry out our atmosphere and we are seeing evidence of this on our 12Z RAOB. High pressure will build across the eastern United States, resulting in freshening northeast to east breezes this evening. Fresh to strong easterly breezes will continue through the middle of the week as the high pressure builds into the western North Atlantic and offshore the southeast United States.
237 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 Temperatures will be above normal through the work week as another area of high pressure spreads over the region and lingers for a few days.
1230 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 Temperatures will be above normal through the work week as another area of high pressure spreads over the region and lingers for a few days.
109 PM MST Mon Feb 6 2023 The midlevel trough and associated cold front has moved through the forecast area leaving us in northwest flow aloft. There is still some moisture behind the trough and this along with steep lapse rates has contributed to scattered showers. Most of this activity will form and remain confined to the higher terrain, which is where a few inches are possible. It could result in light precip or virga for some of the lower valleys, so limited impacts. In particular, the highway 40 corridor and eastern Uinta Basin may experience low stratus and fog, which could be dense in spots. Where clouds linger and fog develops the low temperatures will remain relatively mild due to the insolation. A ridge is expected to build over the region although highs should be fairly similar to today.
236 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2023 Tonight: Mean ridge axis at the sfc & aloft will build E into the Atlantic seaboard. The region will be caught on the NW side of the subtropical ridge over the W Atlantic.
GOES visible imagery showed fog was persisting near Crowley's Ridge, and likely to do so over the next half hour to hour.
A Frost Advisory remains in effect through 9 AM for North Bay Valleys given temps in the low to mid 30s. Today and Tonight: Upper troughing will depart and allow deep ridging to take hold across the region.
The clear skies wont last long as a cold front approaches from the west tomorrow with increasing clouds as well as some light low elevation rain showers and higher elevation snow showers. 245 PM Update: Northerly flow under an upper level ridging has resulted in widespread cloud cover with low level moisture trapped under a strong inversion. There is a warm nose aloft depicted in the NAM though given the dry air present the warm nose it should wet bulb below freezing so ptypes were mostly kept as rain or snow in the grids with some sleet across Oneida county. Once the cold front passes through Tuesday night, temperatures fall below freezing with ptypes changing to mostly snow.
Otherwise dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures than yesterday. Isolated MVFR/IFR snow showers over the higher terrain with mountain obscuration.
A low pressure system exiting the region will leave behind a few mainly mountain snow showers across northeastern Nevada this morning along with blustery conditions across portions of central and eastern Nevada.
High pressure will remain in control of our weather with a veering wind flow from NE tonight to E on Tue. The high pressure center slides off the Carolina coast on Tue and winds will veer out of the East. Max temps a couple/few degrees warmer reaching the mid 70s coast and upper 70s interior.
A cold front is progged to arrive late tonight, bringing a gusty NE wind to areas N of the Pecos River especially near sunrise tomorrow morning. Lows will fall into the 20s and 30s tomorrow night as the upper lvl trough continues to approach the area.
Temperatures are in the upper 70s, with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Surface analysis depicts a low level cyclone in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, with its associated frontal boundary extending all the way to Cuba. Mid level analysis reveals a mean level ridge centered in the Gulf of Mexico, just west of our CWA.
A cold front will move through the area overnight, bringing cooler conditions to the Desert Southwest Monday.
The clear skies wont last long as a cold front approaches from the west tomorrow with clouds returning. 245 PM Update: Northerly flow under an upper level ridging has resulted in widespread cloud cover with low level moisture trapped under a strong inversion. There is a warm nose aloft depicted in the NAM though given the dry air present the warm nose it should wet bulb below freezing so ptypes were mostly kept as rain or snow in the grids with some sleet across Oneida county. Once the cold front passes through Tuesday night, temperatures fall below freezing with ptypes changing to mostly snow.
New model guidance puttting highs a couple degrees warmer this afternoon due to sunshine. Upper ridging will strengthen over the Mississippi river valley this morning, then shift east towards the Appalachians this evening and overnight in response to strong troughing over the western CONUS. Winds in the valley likely remain light enough for us to see temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s once again, but elevated areas in the plateau and also the southern TN mountains likely wind up in the inversion and stay in the 40s.
The surface temperature will remain below freezing as the precipitation moves in after midnight. By 09Z surface temperatures are predicted to rise above freezing for these northern communities.
In its wake high pressure is building over the region. Building high pressure and increased sunshine led to warmer temperatures across the forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon are running 3-9 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Tonight: High pressure overhead, only a few clouds, and relatively light winds will lead to another night of chilly temperatures.
An weak upper trough and surface cold front will reach the coast Tuesday morning, then move inland during the day. Precipitation for the most part will be light, with the highest amounts centered along the Cascades and Coastal mountains in southwest Oregon, even then were only expecting between 0.
Highs tomorrow with full sun and westerly winds will be in the low to mid 30s which is about 15 degrees above normal.
Current temperatures are mainly in the lower 70s, with a few spots still in the upper 60s. Lows will likely dip into the lower to mid 40s for interior southwest and south-central Alabama, and into the mid 40s to lower 50s over southeast Mississippi and inland Coastal Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle. Highs will be a bit warmer Tuesday afternoon than in recent days, with temperatures topping out in the lower to mid 70s.
A short wave trough continues to progress eastward which has brought a trace of light rain and snow across North Dakota. Subsidence on the back side of the trough axis has mixed breezy winds down to the surface across northwestern half of the state. Subtle ridging tomorrow will lead to a low-level thermal ridge spanning from lee side of the Northern Rockies down through western South Dakota. Temperatures in southwestern North Dakota are forecast to warm into the lower 40s while the rest of the county warning area is forecast to warm above freezing.
Showers will return to the Midsouth late Tuesday, in advance of a deep low pressure system over the southern plains.
Temps will be a few degrees warmer tomorrow, with highs in the 60s across the area. As a result, tonight won't be nearly as chilly as this morning, and tomorrow's temperatures will be even warmer than today's.
545 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2023 (Tonight) High pressure currently centered near the Great Lakes region will slowly shift south and east as an upper ridge slides east toward the Appalachians and an upper trough begins digging through the northern Plains. Moisture will continue to increase over areas to our west as a cold front becomes more evident over eastern KS and central OK. The overnight forecast looks uneventful, as wind speeds between 5-10mph should help keep fog development at bay and warm southerly flow keeps lows in the low to mid 40s.
407 PM MST Mon Feb 6 2023 The midlevel trough and associated cold front has moved through the forecast area leaving us in northwest flow aloft. There is still some moisture behind the trough and this along with steep lapse rates has contributed to scattered showers. Most of this activity will form and remain confined to the higher terrain, which is where a few inches are possible. It could result in light precip or virga for some of the lower valleys, so limited impacts. In particular, the highway 40 corridor and eastern Uinta Basin may experience low stratus and fog, which could be dense in spots. Where clouds linger and fog develops the low temperatures will remain relatively mild due to the insolation. A ridge is expected to build over the region although highs should be fairly similar to today.
649 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2023 Tonight: Mean ridge axis at the sfc & aloft will build E into the Atlantic seaboard. The region will be caught on the NW side of the subtropical ridge over the W Atlantic.
Ridging will take its place tonight, which will keep mostly dry and uneventful conditions in place for Tuesday. A Canadian trough and associated cold front will approach Tuesday night.
A cold front approaches from the west Tuesday with clouds returning. 245 PM Update: Northerly flow under an upper level ridging has resulted in widespread cloud cover with low level moisture trapped under a strong inversion. There is a warm nose aloft depicted in the NAM though given the dry air present the warm nose it should wet bulb below freezing so ptypes were mostly kept as rain or snow in the grids with some sleet across Oneida county. Once the cold front passes through Tuesday night, temperatures fall below freezing with ptypes changing to mostly snow.
A weather system will pass north of the area to start the work week, resulting in gusty winds and cooler temperatures. A weather system pushing across the Desert Southwest today with the associated cold front sweeping quickly through SE AZ. Colder tonight and Tuesday night, with outlying cold prone areas around Tucson briefly near freezing, and much colder temperatures in the colder valleys east and south of Tucson. Ensembles are trying to put together a decent ridge late in the week.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA through the remainder of the short term period.
Modified nature of the airmass behind the cold frontal passage tonight will yield cooler temperatures for Tuesday, though still several degrees above early February climo.
553 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday) The axis of a broad deep-layer ridge is parked directly overhead extending from the Gulf of Mexico north into Canada. Although the ridge shifts eastward tomorrow, it remains in control for much of the day as the airmass continues to trend warmer. Following the ridge, a trough and associated cold front will attempt to progress across the Midwest but will struggle to overcome the dominant subtropical ridge centered over the Bahamas, and will ultimately fail to reach the Southeast. This should spur moisture return across the Lower MS Valley and perhaps provide enough dampening of the ridge to allow for a few scattered showers across our western counties late in the day tomorrow.
545 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2023 Showers will return to the Midsouth late Tuesday, in advance of a deep low pressure system over the southern plains.
High pressure centered across the Mid-Atlantic and eastern Southeast Region will slide eastward as a low lifts into the Great Lakes. High pressure will keep us dry again tonight, but the increase in pressure gradient will have winds remain elevated tonight, 5-10kts. The S/SE sfc winds and SW flow aloft will pull in moisture and WAA, providing cloudy skies and mild lows in the lower 40s.
211 PM MST Mon Feb 6 2023 Quiet conditions are expected to linger through the overnight hours with the winds decreasing gradually after sunset while high pressure near the surface moves over the Colorado Rockies.
1031 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2023 (The rest of tonight) Cold front pushing into NE OK this evening with post frontal showers and isolated storms starting to develop as well. The positively tilted trough associated with this evenings showers and thunderstorms will split with a closed upper level low moving into New Mexico during the day Tuesday. Meanwhile, the low level front will stall somewhere over southern OK, sloping upwards towards central OK/AR with height.
The midlevel trough and associated cold front has moved through the forecast area leaving us in northwest flow aloft. There is still some moisture behind the trough and this along with steep lapse rates has contributed to scattered showers. Most of this activity will form and remain confined to the higher terrain, which is where a few inches are possible. It could result in light precip or virga for some of the lower valleys, so limited impacts. In particular, the highway 40 corridor and eastern Uinta Basin may experience low stratus and fog, which could be dense in spots. Where clouds linger and fog develops the low temperatures will remain relatively mild due to the insolation. A ridge is expected to build over the region although highs should be fairly similar to today.
The Key West evening radiosonde balloon indicated a moderately unstable and weakly inhibited atmosphere with decent moisture in the lowest 10000 feet (quite dry above). At present, most showers are over the lower Straits of Florida where the boundary layer has the greatest moist static energy and near surface flow is slightly more confluent.
(The rest of tonight) Cold front pushing into NE OK this evening with post frontal showers and isolated storms starting to develop as well. The positively tilted trough associated with this evenings showers and thunderstorms will split with a closed upper level low moving into New Mexico during the day Tuesday. Meanwhile, the low level front will stall somewhere over southern OK, sloping upwards towards central OK/AR with height.
Precip type may be a little tricky for areas west of the KS Turnpike by early Wed morning, where temps will fall to near freezing, with moisture increasing in the dendritic growth zone.