Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Tuesday) The BRO CWFA will remain on the western periphery of 500 mb high pressure, which will build northwest and re-center itself from the Florida Straits to the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Dry weather will prevail across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, and if any isolated to scattered convection does occur, it will be located over the lower Texas coastal waters. Finally, building seas along the Lower Texas Coast tonight through Tuesday will result in a High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches.
Some wet snow flakes could mix in over the highest elevations, with no accumulation. High pressure brings in dry weather and light winds today into Tuesday. Surface temperatures in the mid and upper 30s across the higher terrain points to the likelihood of snow mixing in. High pressure pushes in at the surface with dry air and light winds. Upper level heights will be rising as the trough moves east and a ridge moves into the Ohio Valley. Tonight high pressure will be over the area with dry air. A very strong ridge will be parked over the region through the period with 500mb heights around 582dm, almost 20dm higher than normal. The center of the high will be SE of the area, allowing SW flow to advect near record warmth into the area.
- Frontal passage ushers in precip chances and cooler temperatures. At the sfc, an elongated area of low pressure across the western Dakotas this morning will move east-southeast through the day. An associated cold front oriented southwest to northeast will drop southward across the western and central Dakotas this morning and then gradually continue south and east into the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota later today into tonight. Drier conditions will set up overnight as sfc ridging noses in from the north-northeast and low cloud cover envelopes the CWA within the cold-air advection pattern.
1153 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Dry high pressure is expected to prevail across the region through this week. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten later tonight as high pressure begins to wedge through the Carolinas. A deep layer ridge is expected to build over the southeast U.
Cooler temperatures and rain potential return for the second half of the week.
A closed low dropping over southern California today will pull temperatures back to normal and produce north breezes which diminish tonight.
350 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 High pressure shifts east through midweek. A cold front finally moves into the area for the end of the week. At the surface, our region remains along the northwestern periphery of a ridge as the ridge's axis lingers in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast and southern Appalachians.
1149 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2023 A cold front will exit south of the region overnight. High pressure will then build across the region Monday through mid week. The rain will continue to taper off through the wee hours of Monday morning as low pressure continues to exit across the Canadian Maritimes. Monday night will be the coldest night of the week and probably of the fall so far as high pressure moves overhead with clearing skies and drier air. Ensemble guidance indicates a high likelihood of temps below freezing across the forecast area, with temps in the north falling into the mid-20s, so lowered the temps from NBM slightly to reflect that. By Tuesday, temperatures will start to warm as the high moves off to the east and we begin to see return flow.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will gradually translate north and east of the region tonight. This will bring a wind shift to E-SE winds, and slightly warmer low temperatures, falling into lower to middle 40s. Southerly flow will continue across the region on Monday, advecting warmer air. extending northeast into the Lower Great Lakes.
136 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 High pressure will remain in place for the coming week, with dry conditions prevailing.
Possible snow at the end of the week A dirty, weak high pressure over the area brought a short break from precipitation to the region for much of the day. A cold front from far northwestern MN southwestward to western NE will slowly move eastward due to the upper level jet stream being parallel to the front.
Temperatures likely dropping below freezing over parts of the western Southern Tier and into the lower to mid 30s at lower elevations. Building ridge will result in quiet weather for Monday. Return flow around this feature is then advertised to pump in a much warmer air mass into the region with highs climbing well above normal.
1145 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Calm, cool and and partly cloudy conditions tonight will be followed by a sharp warm-up tomorrow as temperatures surge into the lower 70s on the nose of a breezy southerly wind.
1242 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 (The rest of tonight) South winds and increase in low level moisture will keep overnight lows a bit warmer tonight. Some areas across far northeast OK where lighter wind speeds have been observed along with mostly clear skies may see a bit cooler temps and overnight lows in a few spots were adjusted down accordingly.
(Today through Tuesday) Slight rain and thunderstorm chances (20-30%) can be expected across portions of the Coastal Plains today through Tuesday as southwesterly flow aloft brings in deeper Pacific moisture and a few disturbances ahead of a low pressure system crossing into the Baja Peninsula. At the lower levels, a tighter pressure gradient resulting in breezy conditions will bring in some pockets of deeper moisture from the Gulf waters. The rainfall potential will mostly be confined to areas east of I-37 today, with some slight chances possible out west tonight as a low level trough traverses Mexico.
1041 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 High pressure builds in from the west through tonight. The high then gradually builds offshore Tuesday and remains over the Western Atlantic through the week.
Have therefore moved PoPs to the low end of consensus blends across the CWA during the afternoon and evening hours. However, by the late night hours, main body of the western trough begins to approach the Panhandles with a decent plume of 700/850mb moisture ahead of it, so stuck with NBM precip mentions in the southern Texas Panhandle.
(Now through Tuesday) Weak upper ridging over the region will strengthen through Tuesday with dry conditions persisting across the area. High temperatures on Tuesday should be a couple of degrees cooler.
A low pressure system will dive southward across the western states into Mexico today and Tuesday. As a result, look for cooler temperatures today with gusty winds developing by this afternoon. A low pressure system was centered over the California/Nevada border early this morning, continuing to dive southward. The southward dive of the low will continue becoming centered over the northern Baja California coast by late this afternoon. The path of the low has shifted even further west and south which will limit the chances for precipitation across northern Arizona. Just enough moisture will move northward in advance of the low center for a slight chance of late afternoon showers over the White Mountains region.
Upper trof currently situated in central California will dig southward toward Baja into Tuesday. As it does so, stronger ridging over the eastern Gulf will slightly expand into our area.
632 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 (Today through Tuesday) The BRO CWFA will remain on the western periphery of 500 mb high pressure, which will build northwest and re-center itself from the Florida Straits to the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Dry weather will prevail across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, and if any isolated to scattered convection does occur, it will be located over the lower Texas coastal waters. Finally, building seas along the Lower Texas Coast tonight through Tuesday will result in a High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches.
645 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 High pressure building into the region will bring pleasant conditions and decreasing wind today. Chilly and brisk conditions throughout central PA this morning with temperatures ranging through the 30s north, west and central and in the lower to middle 40s southeast. High pressure continues to build throughout the day with lingering clouds continuing to dissipate as flow shifts to the south. Areas of frost will be most likely over the south on Tuesday morning, and confidence on the lower side at this time for issuances as per collab with surrounding offices, so will just keep patchy wording in place for now.
617 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 High pressure will drift into the region today, providing abundant sunshine and near to slightly below normal temperatures. Clear skies and light/VRB/calm winds have created favorable radiational cooling conditions, allowing for temps to dip into the lower to mid 30s, as expected. Highs today will generally top out in the lower 60s (central OH) to upper 60s (Tri-State) amidst a mostly clear sky. Midlevel ridging will expand northward into the OH Vly tonight into Tuesday, allowing for notably warmer temps to filter into the region by Tuesday into midweek. With ridging centered over the SE CONUS and troughing developing over the wrn CONUS, broad SW flow will become established from the lower MS Rvr Vly and south-central plains into the OH Vly for midweek and beyond.
656 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 High pressure building into the region will bring pleasant conditions and decreasing wind today. Chilly and brisk conditions throughout central PA this morning with temperatures ranging through the 30s north, west and central and in the lower to middle 40s southeast. High pressure continues to build throughout the day with lingering clouds continuing to dissipate as flow shifts to the south. Areas of frost will be most likely over the south on Tuesday morning, and confidence on the lower side at this time for issuances as per collab with surrounding offices, so will just keep patchy wording in place for now.
258 AM PDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Much cooler conditions, strong winds in the mountains and deserts and a deep marine layer is expected today. Dry and warmer weather returns Tuesday, but elevated moisture levels and weak disturbances drifting in off the Pacific will maintain cool, breezy and more clouds at times through the rest of the week. The upper level low responsible for this cool, damp, breezy weather will slowly move south and east tonight and Tuesday. Tuesday will be warmer with a less extensive marine layer presence.
The center of the low will keep moving east today which will pave the way for a mild, sunny day today.
637 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 (Today and tonight) High pressure aloft will continue building over the Gulf of Mexico through the near term resulting in benign conditions once again. This high is expected to be unseasonably strong, with heights perhaps reaching as high as 5880m which would be around the 75th percentile of all TAE soundings for October 23. As a result, temperatures will remain slightly warmer than climatology tomorrow with highs areawide in the low 80s for our GA and AL counties and the mid 80s in our FL counties. Overnight lows in our AL and GA counties will be in the low to mid 50s with upper 50s to low 60s in our FL counties.
403 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 -A cold front sagging into the region will result in a large spread in potential temperatures, with above average/mild temperatures gradually shifting southeast over the next few days. As that occurs a cold front begins to slide into north central ND and eventually northeast ND and WAA/frontogenetical interactions will help organized an area of rain/embedded banding that is favored by HREF to track between Hwy 200 and along Hwy 2.
930 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 High pressure builds in from the west through tonight. The high then gradually builds offshore Tuesday and remains over the Western Atlantic through the week.
High pressure will remain centered over the central East Coast today and tonight, causing winds to become southerly across the PAH forecast area. Much warmer conditions area expected, with highs today in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees and lows tonight in the 55 to 60 degree range.
634 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Isolated showers/storms today through Tuesday - Moderate risk of rip currents through Tuesday Slight rain and thunderstorm chances (20-30%) can be expected across portions of South Texas today through Tuesday as southwesterly flow aloft brings in deeper Pacific moisture and a few disturbances ahead of a low pressure system crossing into the Baja Peninsula. At the lower levels, a tighter pressure gradient resulting in breezy conditions will bring in some pockets of deeper moisture from the Gulf waters. The rainfall potential will mostly be confined to areas east of I-37 today, with some slight chances possible out west tonight as a low level trough traverses Mexico.
657 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure will build in today with a front to our south. Went a few degrees warmer than guidance through Tuesday to account for the drought conditions we find ourselves in as well as lowering the dewpoints in the afternoons.
Dry weather with slightly warmer daytime temperatures are forecast today and Tuesday.
927 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 High pressure will settle over the region today resulting in dry conditions for much of the new work week. Following a chilly start to the day, dry high pressure, abundant sunshine, and increasing heights aloft will help temperatures warm into the 60s this afternoon. Warm air aloft will keep ridgetop a few degrees warmer than the valleys. The 22 Oct 20Z output from the NCEP Mean 500mb Geopotential Height contours shows a building high pressure and southwest to northeast oriented ridge axis build over the Southeast US. Additionally, a slow moving closed upper low was situated on the north side of Hudson's Bay with an associated trough axis extended southwest into the Northwest US. The Mean MSLP contours depicted a persistent, but gradually weakening southwest to northeast oriented ridge axis across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast US.
Just a few light showers remaining on radar as the mid/upper low drops south into central California this morning.
1003 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 High pressure shifts east through midweek. A cold front finally moves into the area for the end of the week. Temperatures are forecast to be warmer tonight ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s. At the surface, our region remains along the northwestern periphery of a ridge as the ridge's axis lingers in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast and southern Appalachians.
546 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Breezy and warm conditions will be on tap across central Illinois today as afternoon high temperatures climb into the lower 70s.
644 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Dry, cool high pressure will continue building into the forecast area, remaining over the region through the middle of the week. The anomalously strong ridge over the Southeast will lead to a warming trend starting mid week and keeps the area dry through the end of the week. Ridge axis just west of the Mississippi River and high pressure building further into the East Coast region. Satellite imagery shows the moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Norma moving along the ridge and bringing mid and high level moisture into the area. Temperatures this afternoon will be seasonably mild in the low 70s. High pressure will further settle into the area tonight and winds will go calm shortly after sunset.
Surface observations this morning place an expansive area of high pressure centered in the vicinity of the Tennessee Valley slowly sliding eastward.
620 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Upper level ridge is going to be building over the eastern half of the US for the start of the week. (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Long wave troughing will be developing over the West mid-week but the upper level ridge will keep things quiet and warm for us. The long wave trough will slowly start to push east towards the end of the week into the weekend.
906 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 High pressure dominates promoting quiet weather. With high pressure in control not expecting any precipitation as well. After a cold morning with below seasonable temperatures, the area will bounce back reaching low to mid 60's in the lowlands and mid 50's to low 60's in the mountains which place us back in seasonable mode. Overnight lows for Tuesday morning will not dip below freezing even in the mountains due to higher wind speed anticipated.
639 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure continues to build over the region early this week with the pressure gradient strengthening and resulting in increasing winds out of the ENE for the latter half of Monday and for Tuesday. Thus, the moist layer will be shallow and closer to the surface which with high pressure in place will limit the possibilities of showers for both Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures on both days are expected to reach the upper 80s for highs and the 60s for overnight lows, except along the east coast metro where lows should be in the low 70s.
244 AM PDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Average temperatures will be present for the San Joaquin Valley through mid week before an upper level trough passing through the region brings a cooling trend towards the weekend. Some moisture ahead of the trough will result in partly cloudy conditions and a slight chance for precipitation in the Sierra Nevada. An upper level trough will continue to track south along the length of California today. Moisture around the center of the upper low will bring cloudy conditions to the Central Valley for much of the day, clearing into the late afternoon/evening. The trough is expected to bring a slight cooldown to the region, with maximum afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
457 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Key messages: - Cold front today will bring cooler air from northwest to southeast - Much colder temps and light snow expected late Wed/Thu - Cold this weekend, with another chance for light snow Upper flow is split, nearly zonal across the northern plains as a low slides south over CA. At the surface, an inverted trough stretches through the Rockies and into the Dakotas, with Canadian high pressure slowly pushing south behind a cold front. Cold front is expected to cross 2/3 of the CWA by 18Z and nearly all of the CWA by 00Z, so lowered highs a smidgen, leaving south central SD the warmest. Highs will range from the low 50s across northeastern WY, northwestern SD, and the Black Hills to the mid 70s across south central SD.
-A cold front sagging into the region will result in a large spread in potential temperatures, with above average/mild temperatures gradually shifting southeast over the next few days. As that occurs a cold front begins to slide into north central ND and eventually northeast ND and WAA/frontogenetical interactions will help organized an area of rain/embedded banding that is favored by HREF to track between Hwy 200 and along Hwy 2.
1017 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 High pressure building into the region will bring pleasant conditions and decreasing wind today. High pressure continues to build throughout the day with lingering clouds continuing to dissipate as flow shifts to the south. High pressure remains in control through the middle of the week which will keep the area dry.
(Rest of Today) High pressure layered across the NE/mid Atlantic regions, coupled with an upper ridge building over the western/central Gulf states, will translate into dry/seasonably warm conditions well into the afternoon hrs, with highs climbing mainly into the upper 70s/near 80F.
A stout dry layer between 900-800mb looks to hold in place through this evening as an elevated warm front lifts across the area, but northern areas will have potential to see an isolated shower or rumble of thunder overnight into Tuesday morning as the nose of an 40 kt 850mb LLJ arrives from the southwest and provides enhanced moisture/lift along the front. Highs likely to reach the lower 70s for most of the area with a few mid 70s possible in the south. The midweek synoptic pattern features a strengthening ridge over the SE CONUS with persistent southwesterly flow maintaining the very mild air mass over the Great Lakes.
Not enough of a push offshore to get a SE return flow which means lower dewpoints and cooler nights for now However.
355 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 High pressure will build across the Northeast over the next couple days. Fair weather will continue this afternoon and evening with light and variable winds through the evening as the upper level ridge shifts east and the center axis is over Central NC Tuesday morning. Overnight expect good radiational cooling with temperatures dropping into the low/mid 30s in the colder spots, with warmer spots in the mid/upper 30s. The best chance of frost tonight will be in the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain, but some cooler spots in the Sandhills and southern Piedmont could see conditions close enough that result in frost. Mid/upper level ridge will build over NC on Tuesday bringing another day of fair weather.
256 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2023 The main focus this forecast cycle has been the high impact early season winter storm set to bring the first snowfall of the season to NE Montana this week.
(Through Tuesday) High pressure continues to build into the region allowing for quiet weather to continue. Low temperatures for tonight are forecast to dip in the low to mid 50s for GA and AL counties and in to the mid to upper 50s, to near 60 along the coast.
1145 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 High pressure will settle over the region today resulting in dry conditions for much of the new work week. Following a chilly start to the day, dry high pressure, abundant sunshine, and increasing heights aloft will help temperatures warm into the 60s this afternoon. Warm air aloft will keep ridgetop a few degrees warmer than the valleys. The 22 Oct 20Z output from the NCEP Mean 500mb Geopotential Height contours shows a building high pressure and southwest to northeast oriented ridge axis build over the Southeast US. Additionally, a slow moving closed upper low was situated on the north side of Hudson's Bay with an associated trough axis extended southwest into the Northwest US. The Mean MSLP contours depicted a persistent, but gradually weakening southwest to northeast oriented ridge axis across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast US.
307 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 High pressure will over the region during tonight.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) High pressure continues to build over the region early this week with the pressure gradient strengthening and resulting in increasing winds out of the east-northeast this afternoon and even stronger on Tuesday. The strong body of high pressure, and limited precipitable water (~1. On Tuesday, temperatures will cool slightly, with highs only reaching the low to mid 80s.
Drying trend through midweek with another system expected by late week, bringing cooler temps and another chance for rain. (This afternoon through Tuesday) Skies clearing across the area as the upper low responsible for the rain the past few days moves out. Continued clearing and a drying trend will continue through the middle of the week before the next trough enters the area from the north.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) High pressure will remain over the area through the short term.
357 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 The band of rain behind the cold front that is moving through the state continues. Also with the backside of the front there is very low stratus clouds, and patchy fog in the higher elevations. Tuesday will be cloudy with temperatures in the lower 50s west of the Missouri River and mid 40s east of the river.
A strong system will bring winter-like conditions to the mountains Tue night through Wed, with snowfall up to a foot at the highest elevations.