Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Water vapor imagery highlights a positively tilted long wave trough across the CONUS, culminating in a potent mid to upper level short wave near the Baja Peninsula. A cold front is losing momentum across the Gulf of Mexico, with the Keys and South Florida on the warm side of the front.
At the surface, associated cold front is pushing southeast across the FL peninsula and will continue this afternoon and tonight. Behind the front, northerly winds with drier and cooler air will be in place, allowing Thanksgiving Day to start with cooler temperatures and rain-free conditions for your holiday celebrations.
529 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Sunny and warmer conditions expected on Thanksgiving with highs mostly in the 60's. A cold front will nudge into northern Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon, and slightly cooler temperatures could be felt here.
727 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 A cold front will exit the area leaving a dry and cool Thanksgiving day ahead.
543 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) RAP analysis today depicts a closed upper low near the SW coast of Mexico, which is forecast to slowly cross just to our south tomorrow as it begins to transition back into an open wave. In the meantime, today's shaping up rather nicely with ample sunshine and temperatures rising into the low to mid 60s in most areas. Overnight, we'll see the mid-level cloud deck associated with this upper low filter in from the south.
427 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 Two weak areas of low pressure will consolidate into a single, stronger storm along the Coast of Maine late today and tonight.
757 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 The last of the shower activity associated with the cold front is moving ESE across our southern counties and will continue to weaken and move south of the forecast area over the next hour or two. Drier air filtering in from the north will gradually erode the low stratus from north to south across the region as dewpoints generally fall to the 40s and 50s overnight. At the surface, associated cold front is pushing southeast across the FL peninsula and will continue this afternoon and tonight. Behind the front, northerly winds with drier and cooler air will be in place, allowing Thanksgiving Day to start with cooler temperatures and rain-free conditions for your holiday celebrations.
Recent surface analysis shows that a southward-advancing cold front has reached the ND/SD border. Forecast low level frontogenesis has trended considerably weaker, and the lower atmosphere is still fairly dry although ceilings are now starting to lower in the far northwest. High pressure will begin building into the region tonight, with clouds beginning to decrease from north to south. High temperatures are expected to remain below freezing at all locations, and will very likely be limited to the lower and mid 20s for most areas. Therefore, we have begun trending the low temperature forecast toward the colder side of NBM guidance.
415 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Upper level trough to our east continues to lift out of the region. The low levels clouds are slowly breaking up in the northwest and we will slowly see them break up in western areas this evening into the overnight. The low clouds will likely remain in western areas overnight. We are looking at a cool night also with lows in the 30s, once again if clouds remain thicker temperatures will remain a bit warmer but will still fall into the 30s. With the approaching short wave we will see winds shift to the south which will push warmer air back into the region and highs will reach the mid 50s to near 60.
552 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Colder evening/overnight temperatures is the highlight for tonight, and this will lead into calm conditions for Thanksgiving Day.
-Enriquez Afternoon Discussion: Today through tonight: A cold front is dropping through the region today, bringing with it scattered snow showers and flurries through about midnight.
311 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 * Cold front arrives Thanksgiving Day.
843 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 A cold front will exit the area leaving a dry and cool Thanksgiving day ahead.
(This evening through Thursday) Sunny and warmer conditions expected on Thanksgiving with highs mostly in the 60's. A cold front will nudge into northern Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon, and slightly cooler temperatures could be felt here.
331 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Colder evening/overnight temperatures is the highlight for tonight, and this will lead into calm conditions for Thanksgiving Day.
717 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 Two weak areas of low pressure will consolidate into a single, stronger storm along the Coast of Maine late today and tonight.
(Tonight through Thursday night) A cool and mostly quiet night is expected tonight ahead of an upper level low. The upper level low will reach South Texas late tonight/early Thursday morning, with isolated showers developing from southwest to northeast as it moves across the area. Chances for precipitation will diminish through Thursday afternoon as the low moves east of the area. While most places will be in the 40s, a few low-lying locations could touch freezing overnight.
749 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 Scattered lake effect rain showers and drizzle continue before weak high pressure brings partly sunny and seasonably mild weather for Thanksgiving Day.
714 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 A high pressure ridge briefly builds in tonight and for Thanksgiving before a cold front moves east across the area tomorrow night.
(This afternoon through Thursday) Cold front has moved well east of the CWA and is now just offshore the SE coast of the US. High pressure will continue to build in from the west overnight. In the mid levels, an upper low is situated across far western NC and will move east through the remainder of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows widespread cold air stratocu on the backside of the cold front.
Partial clearing is expected on Thanksgiving under building high pressure. Areas of light rain and drizzle will continue through this evening as a mid-upper level trough crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region. The trough will exit the region later this evening, with most of the precipitation ending. Locations across the higher terrain of PA and WV could see some patchy freezing drizzle overnight, with upslope flow, low level moisture in place, and temperatures dropping to near or just below freezing. If confidence increases on freezing drizzle occuring, a winter weather advisory may be needed.
536 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) A cool and mostly quiet night is expected tonight ahead of an upper level low. The upper level low will reach South Texas late tonight/early Thursday morning, with isolated showers developing from southwest to northeast as it moves across the area. Chances for precipitation will diminish through Thursday afternoon as the low moves east of the area. While most places will be in the 40s, a few low-lying locations could touch freezing overnight.
943 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 A high pressure ridge briefly builds in tonight and for Thanksgiving before a cold front moves east across the area tomorrow night.
800 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 Cool high pressure will build in tonight through Thanksgiving Day.
With the trough moving away, and with loss of diurnal heating, the previous showers and thunderstorm activity over the N Midlands has dissipated. Clouds will be on the increase late afternoon and Thursday night in advance of a closed upper low over Texas ejecting northeastward and weakening into an open wave. Lows Thursday night could be impacted by increasing cloud cover, albeit high and mid level clouds, with lows expected in the lower to mid 40s. The GFS is a bit more bullish with moisture and indicates some light rain across the eastern Midlands and CSRA but with significant dry air in place in the lower levels do not expect any measurable rainfall.
454 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 * Cold front arrives Thanksgiving Day.
659 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 Low pressure will shift east as high pressure builds back into the region overnight into Thursday. This high will bring drier air and near seasonable temperatures. A dry cold front will push south through the area later Thursday with below normal temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the lower 30s, and could see a drop- rise-drop in the west that is coincident with the cloud cover. Also, based on clouds have used a CONSSHORT for temperatures which was a little cooler in the east, where clouds are expected to hold longer. Low temperatures to range from the upper 20s north to the lower 30s south.
911 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 Low pressure will shift east as high pressure builds back into the region overnight into Thursday. This high will bring drier air and near seasonable temperatures. A dry cold front will push south through the area later Thursday with below normal temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend. Also, based on clouds have used a CONSSHORT for temperatures which was a little cooler in the east, where clouds are expected to hold longer. Low temperatures to range from the upper 20s north to the lower 30s south.
628 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 Two weak areas of low pressure will consolidate into a single, stronger storm along the Coast of Maine late today and tonight.
EST Wed Nov 22 2023 Cool high pressure will build in tonight through Thanksgiving Day.
The high temperature forecast for today was also nudged down a degree or so for much of the region, as satellite imagery indicates that the erosion of the postfrontal stratus layer from the southwest will be a slower process that originally anticipated. Other elements of the forecast (including low temperatures and potential development of frost, fog/freezing fog) will be contingent upon erosion of the stratus cloud layer from SW-to-NE late this afternoon/early this evening. A patchy-areal coverage of frost and fog/freezing fog is also anticipated, with visibility reductions most significant in the 9-13Z timeframe.
710 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure building into eastern Kentucky from the west as low pressure pulls away to the east. Currently, temperatures are mainly in the low to mid 40s with some pockets of upper 30s.
Partial clearing is expected by later in the afternoon on Thanksgiving Day under building high pressure. Areas of light rain and drizzle will continue through this evening as a mid-upper level trough crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region. The trough will exit the region later this evening, with most of the precipitation ending. Locations across the higher terrain of PA and WV could see some patchy freezing drizzle overnight, with upslope flow, low level moisture in place, and temperatures dropping to near or just below freezing. If confidence increases on freezing drizzle occuring, a winter weather advisory may be needed.
(Now through Thursday) An upper-level trough, located over the eastern US, will continue to push into the western Atlantic through this evening. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build into the southeast US throughout the period.
/Issued 1150 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023/ /Today through Thursday Afternoon/ A tranquil day is expected today as post-frontal high pressure continues to move across the region.
The expansive Hudson Bay upper level low will continue to settle into the northeast CONUS into tomorrow, pushing a cold front into IA overnight. 20Z surface analysis shows IA in a mild, brisk SSW flow airmass and the downslope warm front into eastern NE/SD. Our attention will then turn to precip potential this weekend as short waves currently off the BC and OR/CA coasts merge to create a closed NV/UT upper low by tomorrow night.
Diurnal cumulus forms between 16-19z tomorrow afternoon after the cold frontal passage which also veers the southwest wind to a northwest wind at all locations by 21z. will be watching the lower ceilings. Somewhere around 04z should hold for the lowering ceilings at DTW. A weak and short-lived ridge of high pressure crests over the area this afternoon beneath a broad upper confluent wind field. Temperatures ease down to the 30s this evening before reaching near the freezing mark just before daybreak. A zonal jet streak eases southward into the Great Lakes on Thursday, driven by a longwave trough sinking south out of Hudson Bay. This sends a shallow cold front across the area during the day, marked by little more than a wind shift to the northwest as abundant dry air holds above 850mb.
The high pressure axis will be shifting eastward through the night leading to a gradual shift in wind direction from northerly to southerly within the next few hours.
Partial clearing is expected by later in the afternoon on Thanksgiving Day under building high pressure. Saturation below the inversion should maintain areas of drizzle this evening as a mid and upper level trough crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region. The trough will exit the region toward midnight, with most of the precipitation ending. Locations across the higher terrain of PA and WV could see some patchy freezing drizzle overnight, with upslope flow, low level moisture in place, and temperatures dropping to near or just below freezing. If confidence increases on freezing drizzle occuring, a winter weather advisory may be needed.
507 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) It's been a pleasant fall day for the Panhandles, thanks to weak high pressure aloft and dry air in place.
542 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) A frosty start to the day was seen across a large portion of the region this morning with widespread near to below freezing temperatures.
As cooler and drier air filters into the region, conditions should gradually improve to VFR.
Dense fog and localized dense freezing fog occurring in valleys this morning mainly west of Interstate 75. Analysis and Discussion: The weather pattern is characterized by flat upper ridging situated between active northern and southern jet streams moving across the Gulf Coast and Great Lakes regions, respectively. The low cloud coverage will likely limit fog formation at least somewhat tonight into Friday morning.
Winds Friday afternoon will be a bit stronger as a trough slowly moves across the western states. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler than today despite more solar insolation due to fewer clouds.
(Today through Friday) An upper-level closed low currently sits just off the western coast of Mexico and is expected to move northeast across South-Central Texas through the daytime hours today. However, cloud cover may not fill in completely over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country and some locations may see brief freezing temperatures this morning, particularly low lying areas of the Hill Country. With abundant dry air at the low levels, any precipitation that does fall will be very light.
112 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2023 Areas of light snow will continue through Thanksgiving, with the highest snowfall amounts occurring in the mountains and north and east upslope favored areas across Central and Southwest Montana. Upper-level trough and associated closed low continues to propagate south and east, further reducing the QPF and total snowfall accumulation expected across North- central, Central, and Southwest Montana.
1051 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) It's been a pleasant fall day for the Panhandles, thanks to weak high pressure aloft and dry air in place. Morning lows will be in the 30s to start the Thanksgiving holiday, and will range from the low 20s in the northwest to low 30s in the southeast on Friday. This will allow a cold front to advance over the area, bringing an initial push of cooler air and slightly breezier winds with it by Friday morning. Forecast soundings for this area suggest a sub-freezing profile with a shallow moist layer, indicating the potential for very light flurries, with little to no accumulations expected.
A pressure gradient remains over the Dakotas as high pressure works it's way south out of Canada. Overall, the pattern will feature an upper level trough crossing near, or two the east of the region early in the period, with some ridging possibly pushing into the area by the end of the forecast period. The forecast begins on Friday with a cold, Canadian high pressure over the area with 925 mb below the 25th percentile. A storm system west of the region will bring accumulating snowfall to the higher terrain areas of southwest South Dakota. The clipper systems may pull some warmer air into the region from the upper level ridge to the west.
1202 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 High pressure will briefly build across the area tonight through Thanksgiving Day.
Temperatures are mainly in the low 40s and will fall into the mid to upper 30s overnight. /15/ Colder evening/overnight temperatures is the highlight for tonight, and this will lead into calm conditions for Thanksgiving Day.
Pattern change in store as the massive Canadian cold upper trough sags south, supporting a strong baroclinic zone south of the region. Primary cold front now progressing through the area with gusty winds across the SD Plains. Western CONUS trough will dig into the Rockies the next couple days and deepen over the southern Rockies.
1034 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) RAP analysis today depicts a closed upper low near the SW coast of Mexico, which is forecast to slowly cross just to our south tomorrow as it begins to transition back into an open wave. In the meantime, today's shaping up rather nicely with ample sunshine and temperatures rising into the low to mid 60s in most areas. Overnight, we'll see the mid-level cloud deck associated with this upper low filter in from the south.
324 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 Cold front passes this afternoon into early tonight.
However, these clouds are thinning and should start to see temps dip in the next few hours, especially as the cold front extending across southeastern MN/west-central WI pushes southeast. Conditions are expected to remain dry as this cold front passes. The cold front is expected to move through right around dawn on Thanksgiving. Cold air advection will start to kick in behind the cold front which will cause the overnight temperatures Thursday to fall into the low 20s to teens.
/NEW/ /Through Friday/ A formidable upper low ejecting northeastward from Mexico will move into Central/Southeast Texas today. While this system will be moisture-starved through the low levels, mid and high cloud decks will be on the increase prior to its arrival. A plume of overcast cirrus will arrive ahead of this potent system, which will lead to mostly cloudy skies for most of Friday while the attendant cold front approaches from the northwest. This will maintain cooler than normal temperatures and positive precipitation anomalies for the Gulf coast states.
1237 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 A high pressure ridge briefly builds in tonight and for Thanksgiving before a cold front moves east across the area tomorrow night.
325 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 Dry and seasonable conditions are expected for the bulk of Thanksgiving Day before a precipitation free cold front leads to a potentially prolonged period of below average temperature.
1100 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 - Dry weather forecast through Friday with progressively cooler temperatures into the weekend.
This northerly flow is advecting a cooler and drier continental airmass into the area as well, with this most noticeable across the Nature Coast. As a trough digs in Pacific NW, the low over Texas gets pushed eastward. As cooler and drier air filters into the region, conditions should gradually improve to VFR. While slightly cooler and drier today, moisture remains sufficient to preclude any fire weather concerns.
Dry air in the low levels will settle in with dew point readings currently in the 30s across the forecast area. Therefore, activity that does develop should stay as showers with rainfall amounts on the low side.
1118 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) A frosty start to the day was seen across a large portion of the region this morning with widespread near to below freezing temperatures. Temperatures remain a bit warmer come your Black Friday morning as most stay above the freezing mark but chilly 30s and 40s remain.
With northerly winds in place, temperatures will be slightly cooler than they have been over the past several days. High temperatures today will generally range from the upper 70s west of Lake Okeechobee to the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas. At the surface, the latest guidance continues to show a disorganized wave of low pressure trying to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures on Friday will generally range from around 80 across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas.
1047 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling and updated forecast will adjust lows slightly cooler for a few areas. As such, and despite mostly clear skies overnight, temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer than last night with temperatures expected to drop into the low- mid 30s.
(Through Thursday) The cold front has cleared our area, and colder air is moving in. Lows will fall into the lower to middle 40s for most, but some of our normally cooler southwest Georgia locations could drop into the middle to upper 30s. Clouds will increase again tomorrow afternoon as moisture begins to overrun the cold front, which will stall in the central or southern Gulf of Mexico. Highs will only reach the lower to middle 60s for Thanksgiving Day.
1125 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Key Messages: 1) Much cooler after today with slightly below normal temperatures Thursday and Friday.
953 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 * Cold front arrives Thanksgiving Day.
1049 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Sunny and warmer conditions expected on Thanksgiving with highs mostly in the 60's. A cold front will nudge into northern Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon, and slightly cooler temperatures could be felt here.
This weekend will be characterized by cooler temperatures and breezy north winds. The ridge of high pressure providing us our sunny skies and normal temperatures today will give way to deep, cold trough over the northern Intermountain West Thanksgiving Day and Friday.
Cooler, cloudier, and breezier for Thursday and Friday.
Even with a cold front edging to near the Kansas/Oklahoma border late in the afternoon, temperatures will top out in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area this afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
1214 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 A cold front will exit the area leaving a dry and cool Thanksgiving day ahead.
1255 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023 A cold front will exit the area leaving a dry and cool Thanksgiving day ahead.
Satellite imagery along with observations show areas of fog and freezing fog, and visibilities are down to less than one mile in many locations. Conditions should rapidly improve after sunrise, and the current Freezing Fog Advisory is expected to expire at 8 AM. Fortunately, tonight's temperatures should stay above freezing, minimizing the risk for slick roads, bridges, and overpasses. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough will be crossing the Rockies and Great Plains this weekend.
/SEC (This afternoon through Thursday) Cold front has moved well east of the CWA and is now just offshore the SE coast of the US. High pressure will continue to build in from the west overnight. In the mid levels, an upper low is situated across far western NC and will move east through the remainder of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows widespread cold air stratocu on the backside of the cold front.
139 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2023 Areas of light snow will continue through Thanksgiving, with the highest snowfall amounts occurring in the mountains and north and east upslope favored areas across Central and Southwest Montana. Upper-level trough and associated closed low continues to propagate south and east, further reducing the QPF and total snowfall accumulation expected across North- central, Central, and Southwest Montana.