Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However, even as the front is decaying, an upper-level trough moving through the region is providing enough lift to keep a strato-cumulus deck over the CWA. This strato-cu deck has kept temperatures a little cooler for today.
Temperatures should drop quickly through the 60s this evening, bottoming out in the low to mid 50s in most locations. Parts of southwest/south central Illinois which are closer to the center of the cold high pressure will probably drop into the upper 40s along with our usual cold spots in the Ozark Valleys. Area river water temperatures range from the mid 80s on the lower end of the Missouri to the mid 70s on some of our spring-fed streams. perhaps 3-4 degrees cooler in central and northeast MO due to the colder start of the day. Carney The trough over the eastern U.
WV imagery shows the ridge centered over Arizona, with surface observations maintaining light northeasterly flow at the surface. This will allow one last day of the milder temperatures of this past week, before the ridge builds back into New Mexico Thursday.
228 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Key Message: 1) GRT LKS high pressure to make for an unseasonably cool night tonight, with back closer to normal temps for Thursday. A few cool air drainage locations in the north may even flirt with the lower 40s. A sunny, low humidity day with light east to southeast sfc winds under continuing influence of high pressure.
Drier high pressure works in Thursday through the weekend. Forecast track takes the center of it into the Low Country of SC tonight, weakening to a Tropical Storm by 8am Thursday. Surface cold front crossing the area from the north will get drawn into and wrapped around the northwest periphery of Idalia tonight. Thinking is places like the Greenbrier Valley toward Burkes Garden will have lows in the lower 50s, to mid 50s elsewhere west of the Blue Ridge, with 60s east. As mentioned before, Thursday will have a different feel to the airmass with dewpoints sinking into the 50s and possibly 40s across the ridge tops. This along with High Pressure and cool air advection from the north will result in a cooler than normal day with highs about 5 degrees below normal.
The mid-level ridge across the southwest United States will begin to shift eastward on Thursday as a closed-low digs into Southern California. In response, surface winds will veer toward the southeast and the low-level thermal ridge will expand eastward.
150 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Aviation High pressure will continue to build into the northern Great Lakes region today bringing fair wx with seasonably cool temperatures. A fairly large diurnal temp swing is expected Thursday with high temps reaching the lower to middle 70s after a cool start to the day with mostly sunny skies and a dry airmass in place.
1159 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 High pressure with much drier and cooler weather under it will move in and settle in for the next 7 days. Max temps will range from the mid to upper 60s across the NW Mtns to the low 80s in the SE. Dry for Thurs with high pressure building in. A deep area of high pressure will move from the Upper Glakes region to the Mid Atlantic Coast over the next several days.
(This evening through Thursday night) A weak front will remain draped across the local area separating dry high pressure to the northwest and a warmer and more humid air mass over the northern Gulf.
(This evening through Thursday) The upper-level ridge will begin to push into West Central Texas tonight and usher in a warming trend into at least the the later part of this week. Thursday will be slightly warmer as the ridge begins to track further into our area, with afternoon highs reaching into the upper 90s to 101 and little to no chances for any precipitation.
125 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 High pressure will strengthen over the Great Lakes region tonight and keep a cool and dry airmass over the Ohio Valley through Thursday night.
A touch of frost possible? High pressure over n central/ne WI will move slowly east, and be overhead Thursday morning. The high doesn't get overhead until Thu morning, so winds will try to stay up for part of the evening, at least. Ridging surface and aloft will transit the region Thursday, keeping our wx benign.
For this reason the High Wind Warning continues as there remains the threat for one or two wind gusts to reach/exceed High Wind Criteria here. In addition to the High Wind Warning, I also issued a Special Weather Statement to address the strong winds across the East Glacier Park Region and Southern Rocky Mountain Front. While surface observations are unlikely to verify High Winds here, impactful wind speeds and gusts are known to occur in in terrain orientated to the flow, over passes, and across ridgelines despite the inability to verify. The best coverage of these shower and thunderstorms over this timeframe is expected along and north of the US Hwy 12 corridor, with the highest precipitation expected along the Continental Divide and across the island ranges of Central and North Central Montana.
Otherwise, the quiet late summer weather continues, with full sunshine, light southeast winds, and peak heating temperatures in the lower 90s. Much stronger flow at 850 mb will keep the boundary layer more mixed through sunrise, holding temperatures several degrees warmer compared to Wednesday morning, in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Continued sunny, hot and dry Thursday beneath the northeast quadrant of the dominant midlevel anticyclone centered over New Mexico by 7 pm. Lee troughing along the I-25 corridor will tighten the southerly pressure gradient after 10 am Thursday through the afternoon, delivering the first windy day in quite some time.
Tonight and Thursday Temperatures in spots are 15-25 degrees cooler than just 24 hours ago as much cooler air has filtered into eastern Idaho behind a cold front. Lows in the 30s are expected across the high country while the population centers in the Snake Plain will like see lows in the 40s. As high pressure continues to build into the area early Thursday, an area of low pressure will work south of British Columbia into the PacNW leading to increased SW flow as temperatures begin to see a gradual warming trend. Afternoon highs Thursday will be 6-12 degrees warmer than today with some precip chances returning late in the day tomorrow across the eastern Highlands.
332 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 High pressure will strengthen over the Great Lakes region tonight and keep a cool and dry airmass over the Ohio Valley through Thursday night.
236 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Drier weather returns to the region through the holiday weekend courtesy of building high pressure.
133 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Drier weather returns to the region through the holiday weekend courtesy of building high pressure.
728 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 High pressure will strengthen over the Great Lakes region tonight and keep a cool and dry airmass over the Ohio Valley through Thursday night.
Huston Temperatures in spots are 15-25 degrees cooler than just 24 hours ago as much cooler air has filtered into eastern Idaho behind a cold front. Lows in the 30s are expected across the high country while the population centers in the Snake Plain will like see lows in the 40s. As high pressure continues to build into the area early Thursday, an area of low pressure will work south of British Columbia into the PacNW leading to increased SW flow as temperatures begin to see a gradual warming trend. Afternoon highs Thursday will be 6-12 degrees warmer than today with some precip chances returning late in the day tomorrow across the eastern Highlands.
756 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Tropical Cyclone Idalia will continue to steadily weaken as it moves over south Georgia reaching the South Carolina coast tonight. Expect heavy rain at times and gusty winds across the lower Piedmont late today into Thursday morning.
628 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) As Idalia works off the Southeastern US Coast, broad mid-level low pressure persists across the western Gulf through the short term period with dry air aloft becoming drier into Thursday. Northeasterly winds have done very little to cool Deep South Texas today, but have brought slightly more comfortable conditions, with dewpoints into the low to mid 60s across Cameron and Hidalgo counties and mid to upper 50s elsewhere.
627 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 (This evening through Thursday) The upper-level ridge will begin to push into West Central Texas tonight and usher in a warming trend into at least the the later part of this week. Thursday will be slightly warmer as the ridge begins to track further into our area, with afternoon highs reaching into the upper 90s to 101 and little to no chances for any precipitation.
Breezy north winds will subside across the region during the next 12 to 24 hours, with gusty westerlies developing behind a cold front over Lake and Mendocino Counties during Thursday afternoon.
An upper level high centered over the Central and Southern Rockies will bring very warm and dry conditions through Thursday. For the rest of today, cumulus clouds will continue over the higher terrain, some of which will drift east off the higher terrain. Can't rule out a few high based showers/storms, over the higher terrain. Mountain valleys will fall into the 40s with 50s for the lower locations across the plains. The airmass will be slightly warmer, so expect highs over northeast Colorado to reach the mid to upper 90s.
622 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Upper level ridging centered over the Desert Southwest continues to gradually expand northeastward with broad subsidence and a much drier airmass now in place over the southern plains states. Weak surface ridging will keep winds light through the remainder of today and tonight with overnight lows near seasonal averages.
As Idalia departs the region on Thursday, much drier and cooler air will move into the area and remain over the region through the weekend. Flash Flooding threat continues in the east Midlands so Flood Watch remains in effect in those Tropical storm Idalia in the Low Country moving northeast through the coastal plain overnight. Rainfall is diminishing to the southwest of the tropical cyclone center in the AGS area and SC Piedmont/West Midlands. Behind it, high pressure will ridge in from the north while an upper level ridge also builds across the region. The northerly winds will also bring cooler air into the area, with high temperatures Thursday afternoon from the mid 70s north to the low 80s in the CSRA with lows Thursday night in the upper 50s to low 60s.
539 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2023 An upper level high centered over the Central and Southern Rockies will bring very warm and dry conditions through Thursday. For the rest of today, cumulus clouds will continue over the higher terrain, some of which will drift east off the higher terrain. Can't rule out a few high based showers/storms, over the higher terrain. Mountain valleys will fall into the 40s with 50s for the lower locations across the plains. The airmass will be slightly warmer, so expect highs over northeast Colorado to reach the mid to upper 90s.
Tomorrow, PoPs range from 20-40 percent for the afternoon as we return to a more diurnal convective pattern with the highest chances near the coast. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 70s Thursday morning and low 90s for the afternoon.
Closer to home, high pressure remains layered from the OH Valley SW into the lower MS Valley.
215 PM PDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Temperatures today and Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than normal, with highs expected to top out around the century mark in parts of the San Joaquin Valley on Thursday.
642 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 (This evening through Thursday Night) Areas of mid and high level clouds will continue to linger across the region this evening and through the overnight hours, as a weak closed upper trough drifts SE into southeast TX and central & southern Louisiana. Not much of a change in the forecast for Thursday, as the closed upper trough will continue to meander across central and southern Louisiana. Afternoon temperatures will once again climb into the mid 90s, although some areas across southwest & south- central Arkansas will only make it into the lower 90s. Northeast winds will continue to advect in enough dry air for dewpoints to mix down into the lower 60s, and possibly upper 50s.
732 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Aviation Very quiet weather in the short term with no rain and cooler than typical for late August temperatures. Thursday is the first day of an expected gradual warming with high temperatures in the mid 70s or around 5 degrees or so warmer than today.
558 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) 12z RAOBs depict a 595 dm upper high over AZ with upper ridging extending northeastward over the central Plains. This afternoon into tomorrow, aforementioned upper high looks to shift northeastward over the Panhandles.
Key Message: 1) GRT LKS high pressure to make for an unseasonably cool night tonight, with back closer to normal temps for Thursday. A few cool air drainage locations in the north may even flirt with the lower 40s. A sunny, low humidity day with light east to southeast sfc winds under continuing influence of high pressure.
-thor MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with hot high pressure situated over the Desert Southwest and a ridge jutting northeast through western Wyoming and western Montana and cresting over northern Alberta. A large disturbance has broken off the closed low over the Pacific Northwest and made a bee line along the International Border generating a front that should move through northeast Montana this morning.
627 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 (Through tonight ) Weak upper trough axis remains over east TX this afternoon, and there remains a non-zero chance of a stray shower near the terrain of far southeast OK or west central AR. Aside from that another uneventful night with low temps a tad cooler compared to last night, owing to a slightly drier low-level airmass.
721 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Drier weather returns to the region through the holiday weekend courtesy of building high pressure.
Coastal flooding has receded in many areas but persistent SW winds over the E Gulf and rain filled riverine estuaries to combine for 1 to 2 feet above normal high tides overnight to have a coastal flood statement through the high tides along the coast. Residual large choppy waves and beach erosion will slowly subside but continue into the high tides cycles tonight as well, while dangerous rip currents will persist into Thursday afternoon.
Upper trough axis over the Great Lakes will shift eastward tonight into the Northeast while TC Idalia continues to move northeast into the Carolinas. Dry weather is expected for Thursday as high pressure passes just to our north.
1042 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 High pressure will strengthen over the Great Lakes region tonight and keep a cool and dry airmass over the Ohio Valley through Thursday night.
Temperatures should be much cooler tonight, generally in the 50's to lower 60's.
The broad ascent from the trough moving through, high bulk shear values in the 40s, and enough midlevel moisture will be enough to get some high based thunderstorms to develope. Torgerson Deepening low along the Pacific coast will allow southerly flow aloft to redevelop, bringing warmer air and increasing monsoon moisture thru the end of the week.
913 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 High pressure bringing crystal clear skies to the Northwoods tonight. A touch of frost possible? High pressure over n central/ne WI will move slowly east, and be overhead Thursday morning. The high doesn't get overhead until Thu morning, so winds will try to stay up for part of the evening, at least. Ridging surface and aloft will transit the region Thursday, keeping our wx benign.
The windy conditions were caused by the pressure gradient between the high pressure system over the Atlantic waters and Tropical StormÂ Idalia. The 00Z sounding showed that there was a high amount of moisture in the low-levels of the atmosphere, reaching around the 90th percentile (2. Overnight temperatures will fall to the low to mid 80s. Moderate south to southwest breezes will prevail across the offshore and nearshore waters of the Florida Keys through Thursday night as high pressure builds into the area. Over the weekend, high pressure over the eastern United States and Idalia off the Southeast United States coastline will cause winds to shift to north to northeast with light to gentle breezes, moderate at times.
Thursday will be another beautiful day thanks to high pressure with sunny skies and highs in the 70s.
As Idalia departs the region on Thursday, much drier and cooler air will move into the area and remain over the region through the weekend. Tropical storm Idalia in the Low Country moving northeast through the coastal plain overnight. Rainfall is diminishing to the southwest of the tropical cyclone center in the AGS area and SC Piedmont/West Midlands. Behind it, high pressure will ridge in from the north while an upper level ridge also builds across the region. The northerly winds will also bring cooler air into the area, with high temperatures Thursday afternoon from the mid 70s north to the low 80s in the CSRA with lows Thursday night in the upper 50s to low 60s.
627 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Temperatures will continue to warm this period as upper level high pressure center builds over Kansas.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ Fair weather will continue through Thursday as the region becomes placed on the upstream side of upper-level low pressure centered over southeast Texas/central Louisiana. Afternoon highs will be a couple degrees warmer west of I-35 on Thursday as the upper-level low gradually shifts eastward and modest height rises occur overhead. Fortunately, relatively light easterly winds generally below 10-12 mph will keep the threat for significant wildfire growth and spread on the lower end.
513 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Marine Very quiet weather in the short term with no rain and cooler than typical for late August temperatures. Thursday is the first day of an expected gradual warming with high temperatures in the mid 70s or around 5 degrees or so warmer than today.
Ample subsidence associated with a high pressure system set to move through lower Michigan Thursday along with a mid- level ridge moving into the Great Lakes region will support clear skies across the area tonight as well as light winds. This will support lows overnight ranging from the lower 40s near US-10 to the mid to upper 40s across southern Michigan and the the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline. Very quiet weather in the short term with no rain and cooler than typical for late August temperatures. Thursday is the first day of an expected gradual warming with high temperatures in the mid 70s or around 5 degrees or so warmer than today.
935 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Tropical Cyclone Idalia will continue to steadily weaken as it moves over south Georgia reaching the South Carolina coast tonight. Expect heavy rain at times and gusty winds across the lower Piedmont late today into Thursday morning.
743 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Drier weather returns to the region through the holiday weekend courtesy of building high pressure.
Temps should drop quickly with dry air in place resulting in a fairly strong nocturnal inversion, though light northerly to NNE winds will persist in most areas tonight as our region sits between TS Idalia over GA/SC and Canadian high pressure over the Great Lakes region. Upper trough axis over the Great Lakes will shift eastward tonight into the Northeast while TC Idalia continues to move northeast into the Carolinas. Dry weather is expected for Thursday as high pressure passes just to our north.
A trough centered to our north, which brought us our pleasant weather today, will move east as another upper trough moves south out of British Columbia and into western Washington and Oregon on Thursday. Southwest winds aloft will increase ahead of the trough, with gusty winds mixing down to the surface near the Nevada border. Southeast Oregon will see less warming as the trough advances, and precipitation in western and central Oregon will help develop a cold pool, which may bring gusty northwest winds through the Snake Basin Thursday evening. Clouds will increase across southeast Oregon Thursday night ahead of large upper level low.
HREF members do, however, show a continued chance for showers and a few storms through the overnight as some directional moisture convergence in the lowest 5KFT swings across the north and central half of the peninsula.
Friday night, a pronounced upper high will propagate into the Midwest from the central Plains.
348 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Tropical Storm Idalia will move away from the coast of the Carolinas this morning, while a cold front will move southeast and offshore.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler than yesterday west behind the front, and maybe a bit warmer east across the James River Valley and into the Devil's Lake Basin. Lows tonight will range from the lower 50s to around 60.
(Today and tonight) The upper level trough that aided in pushing Idalia towards the northeast and into the Carolinas this evening, is expected to remain west of the region across the central Gulf coast today.
848 PM PDT Wed Aug 30 2023 A significant cooling trend will start on Thursday as high pressure pushes east and low pressure forms over California.
Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 60s, and high temperatures will be slightly below normal. The nearest feature of interest is an upper trough located to our southwest over the lower Mississippi River valley, HREF mean shows some clouds moving into southern Tennessee in the evening, but no impactful weather.
00z soundings across central to south Florida report rising heights at all but upper levels as ridging starts to build in behind Idalia's passing. Today, we will continue to see a shift to more of a seasonal pattern as winds are forecast to drop off into tonight with ridging building in behind Idalia. These values in combination with highs forecast to reach the lower 90s will see heat index values skirting near Heat Advisory level but opted to hold off as these values are expected to be short lived.
(Friday Night through next Thursday) High pressure starts to build to our west this weekend and this will allow for afternoon highs to climb back towards seasonal norms.
High pressure is going to build in from the northwest providing less humid air with clearing skies today. High pressure will work in this afternoon and clouds will clear out to allow for plenty of sunshine by early afternoon. Should be a less humid day with highs ranging from the lower to mid 70s in the mountains to around 80 east. Going to see the high wedge down from PA later tonight with winds becoming light. As such, with drier air, should have lows into the upper 40s across the valleys of WV/Alleghanys of VA and perhaps portions of the New River Valley and Burkes Garden area, with the rest in the lower to mid 50s. High pressure will build firmly over the Mid Atlantic during Thursday night into Friday. As high pressure maintains control into the weekend, dry conditions will persist.
The HREF is showing the upper high building into the Midwest through tomorrow keeping the skies clear.
Some late afternoon mixing allowed dewpoints to fall into the lower to mid 50s in a few locations, mainly along the highway 84 corridor.
1218 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) 12z RAOBs depict a 595 dm upper high over AZ with upper ridging extending northeastward over the central Plains. This afternoon into tomorrow, aforementioned upper high looks to shift northeastward over the Panhandles.
358 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Tropical Storm Idalia will move away from the coast of the Carolinas this morning, while a cold front will move southeast and offshore.
High pressure will then return late week and continue into the weekend.