Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The frontal boundary should sink southward toward the Red River Valley then stall as a developing area of low pressure over west Texas starts to move eastward by this evening. Further south, the dryline will be slow to mix eastward and the environment ahead of it will likely be capped off to any thunderstorm development until an upper-level trough approaches from the west this evening. Overnight, a Pacific cold front will catch up with the dryline while the upper trough moves in and lowers mid-level heights across the area. Hi-res models are showing a broken line of thunderstorms developing along the cold front from Sweetwater down to Ozona and pushing rapidly eastward during this time.
537 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas. Cold front arrives Friday night, providing a cool down for the weekend.
Gentle to moderate breezes are expected to continue this afternoon as high pressure drifts further east and deeper into the western North Atlantic.
On Friday the low will be east of the area and only a few residual showers will remain over the mountains before ending.
640 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 A warm front will lift north into the Ohio valley where it will be the focus for rounds of showers Thursday into Friday, placing most of our region with a pattern of dry and mild weather.
630 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 A growing ridge will make things warm and dry today and tomorrow.
727 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 (Today and Tonight) High pressure ridge from the Western Atlantic will continue to build across the region today and tonight, which will bring much above normal temperatures under Mostly Sunny skies this afternoon with highs in the mid/upper 80s inland with surface winds out of the South-Southwest at 10-15 mph, while an Atlantic Coast sea breeze will develop and hold temps in the beaches in the 70s.
747 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Aviation -- Rain ending today -- A surface cold front has moved into the forecast area from the west. Low pressure is centered further southwest along the front in Kansas. This low will sweep northeast up the front today taking the precipitation with it off to the east and southeast of the forecast area.
The Northland will finally get a break from weather as a high pressure system remains over the Upper Midwest for the remainder of the week.
548 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 A growing ridge will make things warm and dry today and tomorrow.
The slow burn off of clouds has lead to a few spots running a little cooler than forecast - interpolated most recent obs to account for this. Discussion: We will remain under the northern edge of the large upper ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico today. Tonight the upper ridge will be sliding slowly east, and a surface cold front will be sagging slowly south from the Ohio River Valley but will remain to our north overnight.
Runoff continues today, mainly in the larger stem rivers as flood waters continue to work their way into the lower elevations.
651 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 A weak warm front will lift slowly northward through the region this morning.
The High Wind Warning that was in effect for the Arlington area was cancelled a few hours early as winds have eased. The Winter Storm Warning for the mountains was also cancelled a few hours early as radar returns over the past few hours have become more sparse over the high terrain. More winter weather arrives later in the day on Friday thanks to another Pacific trough moving into Wyoming. Area to the west will be cooler than average with clouds and snow developing during the afternoon.
A Pacific cold front that has been advertised to move through the Northern Rockies today and overnight, remains on track, and will move through the region in two waves. Brief periods of moderate snow along the front will periodically reduce visibility, but given the time of day the snow will fall, impacts to roads, especially in the lower elevations will be minimal. And this will be the time period where snow accumulations are forecast to be more impactful, as a colder air-mass will have moved in behind the cold front. The higher communities around Salmon (Williams Creek) will have a 50% chance of receiving 4-5" of snow through Friday afternoon.
400 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the weekend as high pressure moves offshore.
127 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Water vapor shows rather flat upper ridge building from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, with trof extending from the Pac NW coast through the Desert SW. At the surface, high covers the Upper Midwest with trof extending from north central MT through eastern WY and eastern CO. A piece of the west coast trof ejects into the Southern/Central Plains on Friday, with surface trof working into the Black Hills. Overall warmer temps are expected tomorrow, mainly in the 40s but cooler where snow showers develop. Cold front moves through Friday night, with more synoptic lifting as next upper low shifts into WY.
309 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Low level dry air over the southeast half has promoted deep mixing and temperatures rising into the lower 80s this afternoon. More widespread and intense convection will follow moving into the early evening as the associated cold front and pre-frontal trough approach the area.
PoPs for the remainder of day look appropriate, but will touch up temperatures for cooler conditions the remainder of the day north of the front where temperatures should be primarily in the 40s and steady or falling the remainder of the afternoon. A cold front will continue to move southward through the state throughout the day Thursday, eventually clearing the area by Friday morning.
Temperatures have been slow to warm despite the increasing sunshine with areas from roughly the western Twin Cities metro westward still below freezing. High pressure is centered over the border of the Dakotas and Minnesota and will continue to slowly drift eastward through tonight. With winds going calm under the high, areas of fog are expected again through tomorrow morning.
208 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Broad, slow moving upper trough currently over the western CONUS will slowly migrate eastward through the short term period.
Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the lower to mid 80s, while dew points have remained comfortably in the mid 60s.
MSAS analyzes the cold front fairly far to the north from around Portage County OH to Indianapolis IN to Wichita Fall TX.
As of 1230 PM, a cold front extends (roughly) along a line from Crowell, TX to Seminole, OK. A ribbon of instability (aided by passage of a cold upper low) is progged to develop in the post frontal regime, extending from east Texas towards far southeast Colorado.
Farther south toward Dubuque, the precipitation was rain or freezing rain or a mix with little to no snow accumulation. Water vapor satellite imagery and heights show a weak the mid and high level cloudiness ahead of the trough over Utah extending from New Mexico through the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley. There is a weak wave over South Dakota and an elongated trough off the Pacific Northwest Coast in the Pacific.
The influence of the high will continue into Friday as the center of the high shifts more into the eastern Great Lakes. The influence off the low level thermal trough wanes with a return southeast low level flow leading to some waa ahead of evolving low pressure in the central Plains.
353 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 An upper level disturbance will approach the high plains this evening and interact with a mid level baroclinic zone to yield a band of showers with isolated thunder. Expect lows overnight in the low to upper 30s, with warmest readings at Medicine Lodge. Highs Friday will be in the 40s to mid 50s, with the cooler readings in the thicker cloud cover around Scott City.
1153 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 A growing ridge will make things warm and dry today and tomorrow.
1200 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Aviation -- Rain ending today -- A surface cold front has moved into the forecast area from the west. Low pressure is centered further southwest along the front in Kansas. This low will sweep northeast up the front today taking the precipitation with it off to the east and southeast of the forecast area.
High pressure remains aloft over the region today and will remain generally overhead until this weekend, when it shifts eastward in response to troughing moving into the central part of the country. At the surface, high pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic, with southeasterly flow today becoming more southerly starting Friday. A weak cold front will move into the southeast this weekend, bringing a chance for some rain mainly for our northern forecast area both days, and it looks like there may also be a small chance for a couple of showers over the interior with a sea breeze collision.
1238 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Key Messages: - High pressure building into the region today will bring a break from precipitation chances through the remainder of the work week with near seasonable temperatures.
The latest storm has moved out of the region and leaving behind cooler temperatures, a drying trend, and along with some breezy afternoons. The upper level pattern will transition into a a more zonal flow briefly before a sharp ridge moves in.
Tonight we see a trough begin to move into the area and eventually develop a weak low with it. The associated cold front will also pass through tonight and temperatures will drop behind it while winds will pick up. Temperatures begin to drop this evening and continue to fall behind the cold front to below freezing for all and snow levels come crashing down, so we will see the switch over to all snow showers down in the valleys. Most will stay near or below freezing even for highs on Friday with the exception of some mid 30s in parts of the Magic Valley. As such, we've got a Winter Weather Advisory out for portions of the Eastern and Southeastern Highlands where we are expecting the higher snow totals.
Highs Friday will be close to normal, except a little cooler near Lake Michigan.
243 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Aside from the morning freezing fog, the widespread sunny skies today and warming temperatures from the south has slowly begun to eat away at the edges of the snow field as evidenced from satellite imagery. Expect another round of freezing fog overnight and into Friday morning, but mostly only for Phillips and Valley Counties, with maybe a narrow eastward extension toward Wolf Point, but not much further. Then, just like today, when the fog lifts tomorrow late morning, warmer temperatures will advance and begin to eat away at the edge of the snow field.
1116 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas. Cold front arrives Friday night, providing a cool down for the weekend.
Friday will be mostly dry as upper level troughing transitions across the mid-west.
210 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 A warm front will lift north into the Ohio valley where it will be the focus for rounds of showers tonight into Friday, placing most of our region with a pattern of dry and mild weather. This will increase the chances for rain across Greenbrier to Rockbridge County. Fridays temperatures will run around 20F warmer than normal with highs in the 70s across the mountains and low to mid 80s east.
141 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 A warm front will lift north into the Ohio valley where it will be the focus for rounds of showers tonight into Friday, placing most of our region with a pattern of dry and mild weather. This will increase the chances for rain across Greenbrier to Rockbridge County. Fridays temperatures will run around 20F warmer than normal with highs in the 70s across the mountains and low to mid 80s east.
A slow-moving and southward-sagging cold front was detected on INX radar just south of Tulsa and the I-44 corridor early this afternoon. An isolated lightning strike or two can't be ruled out from showers that develop underneath the northeastward advancing upper low across northeast OK during the afternoon as well. Lacy (Friday night through Thursday) The remainder of the forecast will be largely uneventful and cooler, especially compared to the recent warmer and more humid weather.
Closer to the low, over southeast North Dakota into adjacent areas of west central Minnesota, these wind speeds were still fairly low. Cloud cover across the FA on Friday will be tricky, but overall the high temperature forecast looks similar to the highs today. A cold front will track through the FA Friday night, but ahead of this front fog may be possible again.
Cloudy and misty conditions continue this afternoon with a cold front draped across the area just south of I-70, moving slowly southward. Several hundred J/kg MLCAPE is associated with the frontal zone, and could lead to some strong storms, with mainly a hail threat north of the cold front.
319 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 18z surface data has high pressure over the upper Midwest with a frontal boundary running from the eastern Great Lakes into the southern Plains. Quiet and chilly conditions will be seen tonight as high pressure quickly moves through the Midwest ahead of the next storm system.
The Winter Weather Advisory for the West Central Mountains will be in effect until 6 AM MDT Friday, and we expect the heaviest snow there to come along and behind a cold front tonight. First band of precip moves through the region during the early afternoon with the main cold front during the overnight hours.
1246 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 (The rest of today ) Slow moving cold front has pushed into NE OK this morning, with markedly colder temps observed behind the boundary. Cold front will slowly move SE in the vicinity of the I-44 corridor early to mid afternoon, when at that time showers/storms expected to begin developing along and just behind the front and increase in areal coverage through the remainder of the afternoon. That said, PoPs for the afternoon look good with the highest chances focused in the aforementioned locations.
Dry weather and mostly clear skies will continue on through today and tonight as high pressure ridging remains over the region. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s for inland areas and in the lower 80s and upper 70s along the coastline.
A weak short wave trough is going to move through the region tomorrow afternoon with a cold front lagging behind tomorrow evening.
(The rest of today ) Slow moving cold front has pushed into NE OK this morning, with markedly colder temps observed behind the boundary. Cold front will slowly move SE in the vicinity of the I-44 corridor early to mid afternoon, when at that time showers/storms expected to begin developing along and just behind the front and increase in areal coverage through the remainder of the afternoon. That said, PoPs for the afternoon look good with the highest chances focused in the aforementioned locations.
(Tonight) High pressure to our east continues to allow southerly flow into the TN Valley-- bringing Gulf moisture and seasonably warm temperatures to northern AL and southern middle TN.
225 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2023 A pacific low pressure system and surface cold front is seen on GOES Water Vapor and regional radar imagery across the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. The pacific cold front will track into north-central Idaho between 23/11pm PDT and 24/04am PDT, before reaching into western Montana between 4-8am MDT. Probabilistic guidance highlights a 40-60 percent chance for 4 inches or more of snowfall across the Clearwater and Bitterroot Mountains, including the Highway 12 corridor from Bald Mountain to Lowell, US-93 over Lost Trail Pass, and in Pierce, Elk City, and Dixie. Snow showers and colder than normal temperatures remain in the forecast through this weekend as a longwave trough stays over the western US.
Tonight, high pressure moves into the forecast area, pushing more dry air, and warmer temperatures at 850 mb.
140 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2023 The forecast area will generally remain under zonal westerly flow today as a broad trough over the western US slowly moves east.
Some scattered rain showers look to develop in conjunction with upper trough axis over western Kansas on Friday, which could spread into central Kansas during the afternoon/evening.
(Rest of today through Friday) High pressure, with a mid-level ridge, continue to remain the supporting factor in the region's weather. Friday's highs will be in the low to mid 80s across the east coast and mid-to-high 80s on the Gulf Coast and interior.
This steady flow will slow any temperature fall, resulting in overnight lows ending up in the lower to mid 70s with dew points slowly creeping up through the upper 60s. A ridge across Florida will result in moderate mostly easterly breezes shifting further east southeasterly overnight.
445 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Water vapor shows rather flat upper ridge building from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, with trof extending from the Pac NW coast through the Desert SW. At the surface, high covers the Upper Midwest with trof extending from north central MT through eastern WY and eastern CO. A piece of the west coast trof ejects into the Southern/Central Plains on Friday, with surface trof working into the Black Hills. Overall warmer temps are expected tomorrow, mainly in the 40s but cooler where snow showers develop. Cold front moves through Friday night, with more synoptic lifting as next upper low shifts into WY.
640 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 (Tonight) High pressure to our east continues to allow southerly flow into the TN Valley-- bringing Gulf moisture and seasonably warm temperatures to northern AL and southern middle TN.
512 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2023 The forecast area will generally remain under zonal westerly flow today as a broad trough over the western US slowly moves east.
Temperatures quickly fall overnight to below freezing across the Southwest Montana valleys and there will be a brief break in the precipitation tomorrow morning.
708 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 A cold front will drive through the region this evening.
723 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 High pressure will extend across the region through Friday.
An upper level disturbance will approach the high plains this evening and interact with a mid level baroclinic zone to yield a band of showers with isolated thunder. Expect lows overnight in the low to upper 30s, with warmest readings at Medicine Lodge. Highs Friday will be in the 40s to mid 50s, with the cooler readings in the thicker cloud cover around Scott City.
18z surface data has high pressure over the upper Midwest with a frontal boundary running from the eastern Great Lakes into the southern Plains. Quiet and chilly conditions will be seen tonight as high pressure quickly moves through the Midwest ahead of the next storm system.
Finally by late tonight into the early day hours on Friday expected renewed storm development along the advancing cold front across N TX with these potentially severe storms likely passing across SE OK and into western AR by late morning or early afternoon. (Friday night through Thursday) The remainder of the forecast will be largely uneventful and cooler, especially compared to the recent warmer and more humid weather.
635 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 A warm front will lift north into the Ohio valley where it will be the focus for rounds of showers tonight into Friday, placing most of our region with a pattern of dry and mild weather. This will increase the chances for rain across Greenbrier County to Rockbridge County. Friday afternoon temperatures will run around 20F warmer than normal, with highs in the 70s across the mountains, and upper 70s to mid 80s expected for locations east of the Blue Ridge.
Rain and interior mountain snow is occurring today with the passing of a cold front.
750 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the weekend as high pressure remains offshore.
653 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Dry weather and mostly clear skies will continue on through today and tonight as high pressure ridging remains over the region. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s for inland areas and in the lower 80s and upper 70s along the coastline.
407 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler tomorrow and through the weekend. Discussion: The surface cold front has pretty much stalled south of the area this afternoon with only a few locations still observing some light fog and drizzle. This low will translate along the stationary front this afternoon and evening. The trough will lift up across the lower MO River Valley Friday afternoon and evening with another wave of precipitation arriving with the passage of the cold front.
Surface winds are a bit stronger in the higher elevations further west, which may prevent fog development tonight compared to the southeast. A weak short wave trough is going to move through the region tomorrow afternoon with a cold front lagging behind tomorrow evening.
619 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler tomorrow and through the weekend. Discussion: The surface cold front has pretty much stalled south of the area this afternoon with only a few locations still observing some light fog and drizzle. This low will translate along the stationary front this afternoon and evening. The trough will lift up across the lower MO River Valley Friday afternoon and evening with another wave of precipitation arriving with the passage of the cold front.
1007 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Mainly clear skies and quiet wx continues across Northern Michigan thanks to a large area of strong high pressure centered over the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Area of low clouds is hanging on across far Eastern Upper Michigan but even this cloud cover should slowly dissipate overnight as the high center slides into the Western Great Lakes. Tonight, high pressure moves into the forecast area, pushing more dry air, and warmer temperatures at 850 mb.
1010 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 High pressure will extend across the region through Friday.
With the surface cold front now well south of the KILX CWA dropping toward the Ohio River and MUCAPEs of just 100-500J/kg noted along/south of I-70, think the severe risk this evening will remain low. Cloudy and misty conditions continue this afternoon with a cold front draped across the area just south of I-70, moving slowly southward. Several hundred J/kg MLCAPE is associated with the frontal zone, and could lead to some strong storms, with mainly a hail threat north of the cold front.
The forecast remains on track this evening, with high pressure influence over the local area. High pressure prevailing over the local waters, with no precipitation expected.
An easterly surface flow will set up by daybreak as high pressure builds into northern Lower MI.
726 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Low level dry air over the southeast half has promoted deep mixing and temperatures rising into the lower 80s this afternoon. More widespread and intense convection will follow moving into the early evening as the associated cold front and pre-frontal trough approach the area.
347 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 A large high pressure sitting across the Gulf continues to inject low level Gulf moisture northward. On the backside of this boundary, a substantial trough works its way across the western Rockies. A low level leeward trough develops as the upper level trough moves across the Rockies. As the low traverse KS, it turns 850 mb flow ahead of it toward the NW. These models park the warm frontal boundary along a line extending from Bates to Randolph counties. Other solutions are able to effectively move the warm front northwestward bringing more widespread showers to the region. Precipitation chances are still scattered as upper level divergence along the jet streak combined with low level convergence as the air wraps around the low are more than suitable to catalyze some showers.
132 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Low level dry air over the southeast half has promoted deep mixing and temperatures rising into the lower 80s this afternoon. More widespread and intense convection will follow moving into the early evening as the associated cold front and pre-frontal trough approach the area.