Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1043 AM MDT Tue May 30 2023 Mean western CONUS trough will continue to support unsettled weather through most of the period as subtle impulses eject and cross the region. Unsettled SW flow will persist through the rest of the period, with daily chances for storms, highest probs in the western 1/3 to half of the FA, esp toward the end of the work week as a slow moving upper trough advects over the region with sufficient ll moisture.
An upper low/trough is moving over Southern California with another upper trough over southern Canada/northern North Dakota. An upper ridge extends from over West Texas to western Kansas. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday or slightly warmer with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. The upper trough over Southern California will move a little eastward on Wednesday. Otherwise, storms may develop in western Kansas and western Nebraska closer to the upper trough/low and move eastward. Temperatures on Wednesday may be slightly cooler than the previous day but fairly similar.
254 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure continue will continue to control the weather pattern through the end of the week.
1208 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 The weak upper level trough has exited the region leaving the forecast area in general subsidence for today. Upper trof moving over the Northern Plains early this morning will be exiting the region during the morning, with most convection done by that time. A better LL boundary appears to exist over parts of MN and over the High Plains of NE/KS, this is where svr chances look better. An broad upper trough across the western CONUS and a Rex Block, more or less across the eastern CONUS will still be in place at the beginning of this period.
Clusters indicate upper ridging over the northeastern United States retrograding westward back over our area through the week. Given height magnitudes are similar to what we had over the past weekend, high temperatures should generally fall within the NBM 25 to NBM 50th percentile ranges, which pegs high temperatures by this weekend pushing the low to mid 90s. With the large scale ridging across the area, shear will diminish significantly.
Large-scale dynamic lift ahead of the low will help additional showers and storms develop through the nighttime hours across the Panhandles, dumping even more drenching rain.
1203 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 (The rest of today ) Persistent broad upper level trof over the SRN CONUS will give way to isolated to widely scattered convection later this afternoon across the forecast area.
(This afternoon through tonight) It's a skosh warmer today compared to yesterday, but it's still a glorious day out there.
150 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Persistent high pressure influence retains control of the Southeast Michigan airspace this TAF cycle ensuring favorable aviation conditions. High pressure will maintain dry and increasingly warm conditions over the area this week with basically the same pattern holding into the weekend as an upper level blocking pattern holds sway.
(The rest of today ) Persistent broad upper level trof over the SRN CONUS will give way to isolated to widely scattered convection later this afternoon across the forecast area.
242 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 For the majority of the UP, today will be quiet and warm as ridging centered over the Lower Great Lakes still extends out across the Upper Peninsula. The southerly winds, stronger in the west, will aid in bringing warmer temps to the Superior lakeshores this aftn with highs reaching into the 80s; coolest temps located along Lake Michigan in mid to upper 70s. Lows should settle into the 50s; rain showers and cloud cover may keep the far west and Keweenaw in the low 60s. With medium range and ensemble packages suggesting the continued presence of a mid-level ridge over the Upper Great Lakes for a majority of this forecast period, its no surprise that the end result will be above normal temperatures and below normal precip.
123 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Strong and persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.
/Issued 1258 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023/ /Through Wednesday night/ Another warm and mostly sunny day is taking shape this Tuesday as temperatures rise into the low 80s (as of noon). The upper ridge to our west is expected to push closer to our area bringing more subsidence to our region. This also means that temperatures will be a few degrees warmer with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the mid/upper 60s (Wednesday night).
Mid-level water vapor imagery paints the picture well, with the advance of a short wave trough lifting across the shallow ridge built from the Trans Pecos and along the CO/KS high plains.
Meanwhile, the latest KTBW VAD wind profile data shows winds aloft already shifting to the SW as an upper level trough in the Gulf slowly approaches the region.
Expect maximum temperatures to rise to around 80 degrees at the warmest spots in the lower elevations, including the Central Valley, adjacent coastal ranges, lower Sierra foothills, and the Kern County desert. A daily threat of thunderstorms will persist over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada through at least next Tuesday, as plenty of snowpack that will provide sufficient moisture remains. In addition, models continue to show a trough pattern with a closed upper-level low until Wednesday. Latest satellite imagery shows the low pressure center currently off the coast of Pt.
354 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure continue will continue to control the weather pattern through the end of the week.
Patterson (Issued 311 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023) Today through Wednesday: It will be dry again today under high pressure, with temperatures warming up into the upper 80s most places away from Lake Michigan.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) A weak disturbance embedded in the backside of a large upper level low in the Central Gulf is passing through SE Texas today enhancing thunderstorm development. Another weak disturbance will move through the area tomorrow bringing again the chance of afternoon thunderstorms, but increasing dry air and upperlevel ridging to the west will limit storm coverage compared to the past few days. The increasing heights due to the building ridge will help bring warming temperatures to the region with afternoon highs rising into the upper 80s to low 90s.
301 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) The low pressure system located off the coast of North Carolina continues to drift northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast allowing for a wedge of slightly cooler than average air to infiltrate northeast Georgia.
1202 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Dry weather and a warming trend is expected through the rest of the week under high pressure.
The storms to the northwest should produce outflow and with the low level flow, new storms should develop on any southward moving outflow. Highs will be in the low to middle 80s both today and wednesday with lows in the 60s tonight.
129 PM MDT Tue May 30 2023 AFTERNOON UPDATE: Update for this afternoon first focused on raising PoPs above the NBM for areas associated with the higher elevations out east including the Big Sheeps and Sheridan county.
1249 PM MDT Tue May 30 2023 With weak upper-level high pressure to our east, pockets of energy are moving through Wyoming today from the WSW. Far northern WY could see some lingering showers overnight, mainly over the higher terrain. Wednesday appears to be much of the same, though the flow will be more from the south as the strong upper-level low moves from southern CA toward Arizona, and a trough moves from WA/OR into north-central ID and western MT. Max temps Wed afternoon will likely be 3-5 degrees warmer than Tuesday, with mid to upper 80s from Worland to Greybull, and low 70s to near 80 elsewhere.
Our current update show dew points lowering to mid 50s by later this afternoon, but there are chances that some areas across our region can see dew points in the low 50s. Given dry conditions, diurnal ranges will be large and low temperatures should fall into the low 60s tonight, which is slightly below average for this time of year. Expect a warmer and wetter trend heading into the second half of the week.
- Speaking of the heat, temperatures in the low 90s likely later in the week and into the weekend. These meager storm chances continue throughout the week as mainly an afternoon affair, becoming weaker towards the weekend due to a strengthening upper level ridge, which will also lead to increasing temperatures.
Discussion: The area will remain under the influence of high pressure that shifts into the Mid Atlantic states through Wednesday afternoon.
1255 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Dry weather and a warming trend is expected through the rest of the week under high pressure.
Pattern Synopsis: Broad ridging will encompass most of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the second half of the work week with impressively weak flow through the vertical column in place over the Great Lakes. This will lead to a somewhat nebulous surface pattern across the region with relatively high pressure in place heading into the weekend. Southerly low-level flow on the backside of high pressure will help advect moisture northward across the region, leading to the potential development of scattered showers and storms during the afternoon.
MLCAPEs of around 2000 J/kg and effective shear values of around 30 kt may yield one or two strong to possibly severe storms despite the mid/upper ridge axis slowly building in from the west. This ridge axis aloft will then remain in firm control of our weather for the remainder of the short-term forecast period. A generally dry subsident and warmer forecast is expected as a result.
332 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure will expand across the area from the north through the weekend while weak low pressure remains off the coast. Tonight, the sfc pattern will feature a weak low over southern GA with a building ridge across the western Carolinas. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low to mid 60s inland to the mid to upper 60s along the coast. A weak upper low over the central Gulf of Mexico will remain in place through Wednesday. At the surface, broad high pressure off the New England coast will continue to wedge down the Eastern Seaboard, yielding NE to E surface winds. Slightly deeper moisture will reside over inland southeast GA on Wednesday which coincides with occasional vorticity maxima rotating around the Gulf of Mexico upper low.
Meanwhile, an upper low is coming together in the northern Gulf supporting an area of disturbed weather in the southern Gulf. As the upper low meanders a little closer Wednesday, some Gulf moisture is pulled northward with a good chance for showers and storms and seabreeze activity during the day.
(This evening through Wednesday night) An upper low will move inland over southern California today. This will dig into the trough and amplify the ridge downstream over west Texas. Wednesday looks to be more active with favorable upper level dynamics as the aforementioned upper low continues to track eastward, displacing the ridge over our area.
Zonal flow aloft will keep much of the region under a west-southwesterly flow and begin to back to a more southwesterly flow as the longwave trough extends southward from the Gulf of Alaska.
1220 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night) Influence of the upper level trough will decrease slightly today as ridging begins to build back over Southeast TX. Speaking of temperatures, today's highs will be slightly warmer, generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. The lows overnight into early Wednesday morning will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. However, a surge of much drier air along the mid levels will move into Southeast TX in the afternoon and the influence of the ridge will be a little stronger. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies and highs a degree or two warmer than today.
Temperatures dip into the low to mid 60s for most with the Marfa Plateau and northern Lea County seeing mid to upper 50s. Temperatures will be a couple degrees "cooler" than today, but most will end up in the 90s with upper 90s over the Pecos River Valley and 100s across the Presidio Valley and Big Bend.
119 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure over the northeastern states will extend into the Ohio Valley through the week, with warm temperatures expected. As the upper low over the Carolinas drifts off the coast today, gradually weakening, the long-running Rex Block pattern will finally be on its way out. This means another day of boundary layer flow out of the southeast, mostly sunny conditions, and temperatures a degree or two warmer than Tuesday -- reaching the middle to upper 80s. Upper high extending from the eastern Great Lakes into New England at the beginning of the period will become more expansive as it retrogrades into the northern Plains by the weekend.
As we head into tonight and tomorrow, a mid to upper level ridge is expected to move into the region with the ridge axis expected to be over South Texas by Wednesday night.
Highs this afternoon will largely from the lower to mid 80s across the lower elevations. The cumulus field dissipates overnight with mainly clear skies except where on-shore flow continues to impinge on the east slopes of the higher terrain. Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the lower elevations.
Upper level ridging will remain over our area on Wednesday afternoon which will keep dry conditions in place.
Temperatures will remain in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees this week, climbing into the lower 90s over the weekend.
The evening/overnight forecast is more complex than usual, as although activity may begin to wane per usual after sunset (due to BL stabilization) we may see another uptick in precipitation overnight into Wednesday morning as a weak boundary (pseudo-warm front) lifts northward ahead of developing low pressure over the GOM.
313 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Hot and mostly sunny conditions persist for the week with upper level ridging over the eastern half of North America. High pressure and strong upper level ridging east/northeast of the Ohio River Valley are leading to anomalously deep easterly flow through 350 hPa this afternoon across the Ohio Valley. Forecast lows are in the lower to middle 60s. A broad area of high pressure and ridging centered to the east remains in place Wednesday and Wednesday night with very little change in sensible weather. Lows remain mild Wednesday night- in the lower to middle 60s under mostly clear skies with light southeasterly flow.
Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected through much of the period as upper ridging remains across the central and eastern CONUS.
Thunderstorms have started to develop across the higher terrain to the west. The remnants of the High Plains convection will move to the east toward the Southern Plains tonight. The convection should decay as it approaches the 100th meridian given the low-level jet will remain to the west. Otherwise, a mid-level ridge axis across the Southern Plains should limit daytime convection on Wednesday with only a slight chance (~15%) at any given location. There is a chance the remnants of tonight's convection may serve as a focus for development tomorrow afternoon, but the probability does not appear too high given the mid-level ridge in place.
A trough digging over the Pacific Northwest has once again helped kick off scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Northern Rockies this afternoon.
134 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure continues to dominate over the region, bringing warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather across the area.
1259 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will expand eastward, with the ridge axis overhead by Wednesday, resulting in subsidence and a dry forecast the next 24 hours.
Prevailing flow will continue to shift about to become more out of the south today as the influence of the forming low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico extends more influence over the region. High temperatures for this afternoon will peak in the upper 80s and lower 90s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 80s along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s for the shoreline and for areas along the St Johns River.
(Rest of Today) A regime of weak steering flow aloft will continue across the TN Valley today, as the region will remain between a decaying upper low lifting northeastward away from the Outer Banks, a mid-level ridge centered across the northern Mid-Atlantic states and a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft encompassing much of the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a ridge (attached to a high located over the North Atlantic waters to the east of New England) will continue to build southwestward in the lee of the southern Appalachians, with a subtle low-level streamline confluence axis induced by this process likely to initiate the development of isolated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms as it enters our eastern zones later this afternoon.
Although a couple models put a little better shear, albeit still on the lower end, right along the ND/SD border. Highs this afternoon and Wednesday will be mostly in the low 80s, with a few locations staying in the upper 70s or reaching the mid 80s. Lows tonight and Wednesday night will be mostly in the 50s, with a few locations staying in the low 60s. Average highs for this time of the year are in the low 70s, while average lows are in the upper 40s.
Cooler temperatures in the short term as winds return to northwesterly. (This afternoon through Wednesday) Current satellite showing most of the high clouds associated with the stubborn, slow moving upper low are now mostly out of our region with a few lingering here and there. As the low moves inland through this evening, north/northwest winds will increase along coastal areas through midweek. Some remnant cloudiness from a deeper marine layer will likely remain through Wednesday as a weak trough associated with a weakening upper low in the Gulf of Alaska digs in slightly behind the exiting upper low.
1011 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023 The weak upper level trough has exited the region leaving the forecast area in general subsidence for today. Upper trof moving over the Northern Plains early this morning will be exiting the region during the morning, with most convection done by that time. A better LL boundary appears to exist over parts of MN and over the High Plains of NE/KS, this is where svr chances look better. An broad upper trough across the western CONUS and a Rex Block, more or less across the eastern CONUS will still be in place at the beginning of this period.
1247 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure continues to dominate over the region, bringing warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather across the area.
Mid-afternoon temperatures were in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Highs on the day will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with temps cooling into the upper 70s by mid-evening. Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 50s in the valleys with most of the ridges/flat land remaining in the low-mid 60s. With daytime heating and dewpoints in the low-mid 60s, model proximity soundings suggest that we'll get around 700-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE in the afternoon.
Wednesday, upper low moves into the four corners area with subtly rising heights over the CWA.
1210 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 (Rest of Today) A regime of weak steering flow aloft will continue across the TN Valley today, as the region will remain between a decaying upper low lifting northeastward away from the Outer Banks, a mid-level ridge centered across the northern Mid-Atlantic states and a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft encompassing much of the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a ridge (attached to a high located over the North Atlantic waters to the east of New England) will continue to build southwestward in the lee of the southern Appalachians, with a subtle low-level streamline confluence axis induced by this process likely to initiate the development of isolated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms as it enters our eastern zones later this afternoon.
Overnight lows will be slightly warmer in the morning with a bit more fog possible in the warmer air.
207 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 As low pressure meanders to the south, the chance for showers will remain today over portions of central Virginia and southern Maryland. High pressure is forecast to build in during the second half of the week, raising temperatures back above normal. Clouds should clear enough in the central Shen Valley and central VA to allow temps to reach at least the low 70s. High pressure to our north builds south over the next couple of days.
1218 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night ) Strong high pressure centered toward New England will continue to slowly move away from Arkansas the next couple of days. On the western periphery of the high, a nearly stationary boundary will wash out with time.
Forecast Discussion: Early this afternoon, mesoanalysis showed the remnants of an earlier MCV as a weak wind shift/trough at H7 and H5 and a subtle vort max over northeast KS. While CAMs remain inconsistent with one another and from run-to-run, the weak vort max and subtle mid-level trough are likely to aid in continued storm development with scattered coverage expected later this afternoon into the early evening hours, especially for the eastern half of the CWA. Forecast sounding still show an inverted V profile in the lower levels, indicating a damaging wind gust potential with strong downdrafts.
Low pressure moving further to the south has shift wind to the southeast. This influence is battling an upper level trough pushing air from the northwest.
Speaking of tonight, as mentioned, the upper level pattern is weak as we remain situated beneath a large scale ridge over the eastern CONUS, and between two weaker upper lows over the mid-Atlantic seaboard and one over the central Gulf coast.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday Evening/ A mid level ridge located over West Texas and an upper low over the northern Gulf places North and Central Texas beneath a north flow aloft regime. The ridge will shift east overnight and Wednesday, creating subsidence and shunting convection into East Texas.
732 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday) Residual low to mid level troughing remains over the area extending west from the upper low off the coast of North Carolina. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.
A quiet weather evening will continue across the region overnight with dry conditions and low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures will remain in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees this week, climbing into the lower 90s over the weekend.
Temperatures are running about 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday this time across much of the area. (This afternoon through tonight) It's a skosh warmer today compared to yesterday, but it's still a glorious day out there.
920 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Strong and persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.
The risk for thunderstorms will progressively diminish over the course of the evening as the boundary layer stabilizes, but at least a few lightning flashes will be possible with any stronger updrafts, until the trough exits our region to the northwest shortly after Midnight.
701 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Hot and mostly sunny conditions persist for the week with upper level ridging over the eastern half of North America. High pressure and strong upper level ridging east/northeast of the Ohio River Valley are leading to anomalously deep easterly flow through 350 hPa across the Ohio Valley. Forecast lows are in the lower to middle 60s. A broad area of high pressure and ridging centered to the east remains in place Wednesday and Wednesday night with very little change in sensible weather. Lows remain mild Wednesday night- in the lower to middle 60s under mostly clear skies with light southeasterly flow.
With dew points in the lower to middle 60s, expect low temperatures to be held in that range as well.