Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1005 PM MST Mon Feb 6 2023 The midlevel trough and associated cold front has moved through the forecast area leaving us in northwest flow aloft. There is still some moisture behind the trough and this along with steep lapse rates has contributed to scattered showers. Most of this activity will form and remain confined to the higher terrain, which is where a few inches are possible. It could result in light precip or virga for some of the lower valleys, so limited impacts. In particular, the highway 40 corridor and eastern Uinta Basin may experience low stratus and fog, which could be dense in spots. Where clouds linger and fog develops the low temperatures will remain relatively mild due to the insolation. A ridge is expected to build over the region although highs should be fairly similar to today.
Afternoon highs will be fairly seasonable to slightly warmer than normal. Current temperatures around the region are running a few to several degrees warmer than they were 24 hours ago. In its wake high pressure is building over the region. Building high pressure and increased sunshine led to warmer temperatures across the forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon are running 3-9 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Tonight: High pressure overhead, only a few clouds, and relatively light winds will lead to another night of chilly temperatures.
A broad low pressure system will pass through the Upper Great Lakes region with a surface front stretching to the south into the Ohio Valley. Surface wind speeds will also begin to relax as the surface and near surface pressure gradients weaken as the low continues to move further away. Temperatures will be much above normal today with highs in the low 50s and near steady temperatures even in the aftermath of the frontal passage.
Satellite showed a weak short wave trough passing just north of our CWA this evening. Stronger trough in the north Pacific will bring snow and low-valley rain late Tuesday afternoon and night, mainly in Idaho north of the Snake Basin. Gusty winds when the system's cold front moves through, late afternoon in eastern OR, Tuesday evening in southwestern ID, and late Tuesday night in south-central ID.
High pressure ridges, both surface and aloft, will continue to control the local wx pattern. At the surface, high pressure over NC will shift east into the Atlantic, veering local winds from N/NE to E/ESE by mid-morning.
334 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2023 High pressure brings quiet and slightly mild weather today and then a warmup beginning tomorrow as it moves offshore.
(Today and tonight) Last night's cold front was found pressing south of I-20 as of 2 AM ahead of an expanding layer of stratus around 4-5k feet.
900 PM PST Mon Feb 6 2023 Warm high pressure will strengthen over the Southwest this week, bringing fair skies, low humidity, and locally gusty Santa Ana winds at times.
This high pressure ridges southwest across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
501 AM MST Tue Feb 7 2023 Warmer than normal temperatures with a mostly quiet pattern continues this week. Pressure rises, cold air advection and subsidence behind the trof will bring stronger winds to the region. The remainder of the forecast period will feature the west coast ridge moving onshore and into the mountain west with mild and dry conditions expected. Northwest winds will increase on Wednesday as a cold front moves across the region.
Afternoon highs will be fairly seasonable to slightly warmer than normal.
547 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night) With moisture levels continuing to increase today ahead of a slow moving storm system and its associated cold front, still expecting to see a return and gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage as the day progresses. Cooler temperatures begin to fill into northwest locations late tonight through early Wednesday morning as the cold front begins to work into that area (low to mid 50s over there, low 60s closer to the Houston area and the coast). The timing of the front will be a player for Wednesday's highs with readings currently expected to range from the mid 50s behind the front to the low to mid 70s ahead of the front).
326 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2023 Key Messages - Dry but cooler Tuesday.
For today, a weak, transitory ridge builds in bringing a day of mostly sunny skies except for the usual spots up north. High temps will be a bit cooler than usual. Through the day Wednesday, an approaching upper level trough will flatten the ridge as upper level flow becomes more zonal. The upper level trough will be just on our doorstop around 3PM, give or take, with some light snow possible over the Elkheads and Park Ranges.
Confidence in the ensembles is increasing for a decent ridge late in the week.
Mid state region will increasingly become established in warm sector of developing synoptic frontal system as it develops and shifts from southern plains, mid MS River Valley Region to mid state region by late Wednesday afternoon, with a warm front developing and pushing northward into central KY then also. Upper level flow will become increasingly southwesterly orientated as an upper level low digs and shifts eastward across southern plains as Wednesday progresses too.
High pressure continues to dominate, with a generally easterly flow expected through the day. Otherwise, no changes with conditions favoring a significantly warmer than average afternoon once again today, with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. This high pressure ridges southwest across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
(Today and tonight) Cold front has moved south of I-20 early this morning, pushing into the northern Concho Valley and Heartland. Front will continue south and bring cooler conditions to the area today. Models are consistent in showing isentropic lift over the frontal boundary, with the high res models showing some if starting before sunrise this morning and then expanding in coverage into the afternoon. Meanwhile, the upper level trough continues to push east into the Southern Rockies tonight, adding additional lift to the equation.
451 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2023 TODAY/TONIGHT: Another "mild" day in store across the area in a west/southwesterly flow as surface ridging builds eastward through the Central Plains. Even so, remained on the high side of guidance with respect to temperatures today as we have consistently overachieved with highs for the past few days. TONIGHT: High pressure builds into the mid Mississippi Valley tonight with our winds taking on a more south/southeasterly component.
An upper level ridge over the Northern Rockies early this morning will shift eastward through the day, with the Chinook influenced thermal ridge forecast to be centered over the local area this afternoon.
Broad area of high pressure to largely maintain dry and seasonably mild conditions into the weekend.
Breezy northerly winds will serve to bring in temperatures in the lower 50s tonight, and in the mid-50s near the lakeshore. Going into Thursday night, expect lows to range from the lower 40s in the north to the lower 50s in the south and near the lakeshore.
341 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Temperatures will return to seasonal normals across the area today as heights rise and warmer air is advected in. The ridge strengthens on Thursday, with temperatures trending up a degree or two.
Pattern Synopsis: Low pressure and an associated cold front currently crossing Lake Michigan with broad area of isentropically induced rain with embedded thunder across much of northern Michigan. Some drying aloft overnight after fropa but the low levels remain saturated with weak shear at the top of the boundary layer. Cooler tonight than last night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Broad low amplitude troughing builds in behind this wave for the end of the week into the weekend, setting the stage for much cooler temperatures.
942 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 A cold front will cross the Ohio Valley on Thursday. High pressure will settle over the Great Lakes and keep a northerly flow over the region, with below normal high temperatures in the 70s expected through the weekend.
(This evening through Thursday) As the low-level ridge (centered far to our north) shifts eastward, will see haze and subsequent visibility reductions through tomorrow afternoon over parts of Oklahoma due to a large swath of smoke being transported from Canada. Light north winds could become variable into tonight as the ridge axis drifts across the area. Cooler temperatures and somewhat lower dewpoint temperatures should make for pleasant conditions this evening into tomorrow morning. Also possible, but even more uncertain, is the possibility of storms developing along the warm front late tomorrow where CIN is less (notably along an arc from northwest Oklahoma to central Oklahoma).
716 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through tonight and Thursday as a cold front and a low pressure trough approach and cross the region. Even after the severe threat subsides this evening, scattered showers/storms should overspread the region from west to east tonight with vorticity advection ahead of an approaching trough. Cold frontal passage is still slated for the afternoon/evening hours on Thursday, as a mid-level trough settles into the Middle Ohio Valley. Following frontal passage, PoPs will decrease from west to east Thursday evening, and a quiet overnight period is pictured as a cooler/drier air mass starts to sag into the area.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s overnight. High pressure across the area continues to weaken and shift gradually southward as a mid-level cut off low dips southward into the southeast United States. Highs will range from the low 90s along the coast to mid 90s over the interior. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
2) Smoke originating from the multiple fires located in British Columbia and the Northwest Territories of Canada has worked its way into a large portion of the central CONUS behind an upper trough heading ESE over the eastern US.
High temperatures will reach the low 90s across most of the area with a few locales across the western half of the area reaching the mid 90s.
635 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 A cold front ahead of an upper level trough will bring a few showers and storms to the Ohio Valley this evening before cooler air arrives behind the front overnight into Thursday.
508 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Updated Aviation Discussion A rinse and repeat weather pattern continues across the area through the end of the week, with highs in the 70s and low 80s, with a few afternoon showers each day across the higher terrain. While most of the rain should fall across the higher terrain, a few of the more organized showers may be able to drift onto the plains, where they may have just enough dry air to generate some wind gusts to 35-40 mph.
652 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Noticeably cooler air to remain in place starting today. Surface analysis this afternoon shows a north-south oriented area of high pressure arriving from the northwest, which when combined with a more pronounced northerly flow aloft is bringing much cooler air to the Upper Midwest which will remain in place until further notice.
However, a new line of showers and a few thunderstorms has formed along the main cold front which stretches from east of Paducah to near Jackson TN.
Despite the smoky sky, and smoke at ground level, temperatures have warmed into the 60s, with some areas expected to top out in the low 70s by the end of daytime heating (~4PM CDT).
Currently - A narrow pressure ridge is draped from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, and out into the Atlantic. Short Term Update - Through the overnight period, the weak ridge will remain just to our north. Expect overnight lows to settle in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the lower to mid 70s. A weak ridge not far to the north will maintain light mainly easterly breezes on Keys waters.
The latest HRRR/RAP NCEP smoke guidance showing the highest concentration of smoke particles there.
A surface cold front will continue to progress through the forecast area through late this afternoon into tonight. Post-frontal CAA, will bring a refreshing airmass, with low temperatures dipping into the lower to middle 60s and falling dew point temperatures.
The cold front is set to push through our area during the afternoon hours. A cold front will move through the region Thursday evening bringing slightly cooler temps through the weekend.
-Cooler temperatures today and tomorrow, as highs reach the 60s to lower 70s. Otherwise; cooler, and more seasonal temperatures are expected today and tomorrow. Some broken cumulus are possible at times this afternoon as the upper level trough that brought precip to our area shifts eastward.
718 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Cooler weather is expected the next several days.
The trough is slanted with height with the lower-level trough around h850/700 now pushing into NW GA, but the trough in the h500 level is centered across the forecast area and will stall.
648 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (This evening through Thursday) As the low-level ridge (centered far to our north) shifts eastward, will see haze and subsequent visibility reductions through tomorrow afternoon over parts of Oklahoma due to a large swath of smoke being transported from Canada. Light north winds could become variable into tonight as the ridge axis drifts across the area. Cooler temperatures and somewhat lower dewpoint temperatures should make for pleasant conditions this evening into tomorrow morning. Also possible, but even more uncertain, is the possibility of storms developing along the warm front late tomorrow where CIN is less (notably along an arc from northwest Oklahoma to central Oklahoma).
A broad upper trough remains over the EPac and high pressure remains over W Texas/S New Mexico with the Bay Area sandwiched in between.
1049 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 A slow- moving cold front will approach from the Great Lakes Thursday, likely stalling over the region through at least the first half of the weekend.
156 AM MDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A cold front today will push most of the smoke to the east.
357 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A slow moving cold front will eventually move through the region late today. This will mean clouds, cooler temperatures and the risk for showers and storms. Convection coverage and intensity is expected to increase as the morning progresses, placing the highest probabilities for storms along the eastern border of the forecast area. Behind the eastward moving wave, a surface cold front will cross Ohio early this afternoon, reaching the eastern third of the area around sunset.
This is in association with weak upper-level troughing moving across southern BC and AB tonight along with some limited moisture. Hoenisch A rinse and repeat weather pattern continues across the area through the end of the week, with highs in the 70s and low 80s, with a few afternoon showers each day across the higher terrain. While most of the rain should fall across the higher terrain, a few of the more organized showers may be able to drift onto the plains, where they may have just enough dry air to generate some wind gusts to 35-40 mph.
333 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Today will be warmer as a thermal ridge moves in under mostly zonal flow. If you want temperatures in the lower 80s, you'll have to go west.
330 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 The cold front will exit the region this afternoon and will be followed by a secondary cold front that will cross southward on Friday. The cold front continues to swing east across the forecast area through tonight. A secondary cold front will cross south across Lake Erie this evening into Friday. It looks as though we'll remain in a trough-y pattern through the near term as the base of the mid to upper trough lingers over the lower Great Lakes region. Overnight lows tonight will settle in the low to mid 60s. Cooler on Friday with highs in the low to mid 70s. A weak and broad mid level trough will become nearly stationary over the Lower Ohio Valley region this weekend.
High pressure will remain across the region through the early part of the weekend.
The cold front is set to push through our area during the afternoon hours.
1221 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (Rest of tonight) Most of the showers and thunderstorms have finally come to an end across the Tennessee Valley, and we await a cold front soon to pass through the region overnight.
1130 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Dry weather and above normal temperatures will continue across the area this forecast period as an upper ridge remains in place.
(Today through Friday) Conditions will remain mostly dry and sunny today as high pressure remains in place over the Florida peninsula. A return to more seasonable September conditions starts knocking on our door on Friday as an upper level low over the Great Lakes drags a surface frontal boundary across the southeastern US towards the Florida peninsula. High temperatures will continue to peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon through the short term, but with the lower dew points, heat indices will struggle to break into the triple digits.
Drier and cooler air arrive for tonight and Friday as low to mid level flow becomes northwesterly to northerly. Highs on Friday in the lower 80s to lower 90s.
A surface cold front extended from Northern Wisconsin southwest across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley region and further west into West- Central Texas. Highs will range from near 90 in the higher elevations east to the low to mid 90s west and south. A surface cold front will move further east, extending from Eastern Michigan southwest through the Mid-South Region and further west into West Texas. Lows will range from the upper 60s far north to the low 70s south. Another trough aloft will move over the area during the day on Thursday with the associated surface cold front advancing southeast, extending from Western New York State south into Northern Georgia and stretching west toward the ArkLaTex region. Highs will range from the mid 80s far north to the low to mid 90s far south.
1249 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (This evening through Friday) Latest data from KLZK radar indicate scattered convection developing along a prefrontal trough/weak cold front, subjectively analyzed at 19z from Little Rock, to near De Queen (the actual cold front is located about 40 miles to the north). Strong instability exits to the south of the trough/front, with MUCAPE values of 5000+ j/kg indicated.
1153 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (This evening through Friday night) Upper level ridging will dominate the pattern through Thursday night. Temperatures will be higher thanks to the higher humidities, and as a result, heat index values will be above 108 Thursday.
FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT: High pressure builds over the Upper Mississippi Valley today helping clouds slowly scatter out from west to east.
1136 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 The latest surface analysis places a cold front along and nearly parallel to I-40 at this hour. AC3 Showers and thunderstorms will continue across north Mississippi through this evening but slightly cooler and drier air will settle over the region behind a cold front.
The higher chances (20%) for showers/storms look to be late evening/overnight when storms can develop on the nose of the strengthening llj.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge, centered over southern New Mexico, will continue to dominate the region today. The 850 mb thermal ridge will strengthen today by around 2 deg C, which should result in highs a few degrees higher than yesterday.
(Rest of tonight) Most of the showers and thunderstorms have finally come to an end across the Tennessee Valley, and we await a cold front soon to pass through the region overnight.
Mid/upper level high pressure centered across W TX, will continue to keep S TX hot, humid and mostly rain free through Thursday. An embedded short wave rounding the eastern periphery of the high pressure and tracking across S TX, combined with limited moisture has lead to a few showers developing along the sea breeze this afternoon. Ambient temperatures are expected to be similar to today's values, possibly a degree or two higher with high pressure building back across S TX behind the short wave.
The cold front mentioned in previous AFDs is set to move through the Tennessee Valley this morning. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s.
230 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Much quieter and cooler weather is expected through the short-term portion of the forecast.
154 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A cold front will cross the Ohio Valley on Thursday. High pressure will settle over the Great Lakes and keep a northerly flow over the region, with below normal high temperatures in the 70s expected through the weekend. Few showers continue to track across the region ahead of a pre- frontal trough.
A cooler post-frontal air mass should bring us to the low to mid 60s for lows by daybreak. This is occurring ahead of an approaching cold front associated with the low and suggest some destabilization has occurred this afternoon. A cooler-drier airmass filtering in behind the front will result in quiet weather conditions overnight. Highs will likely only reach the low-mid 70s across most locations. This should leave the Ohio Valley in a cooler region beneath low heights. The centroid of lower heights will shift slightly eastward with time, but high pressure over the lower Canadian Provinces should induce easterly flow keeping the subseasonal temperatures over Indiana.
410 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 (Today through Friday) 500mb troughing will remain overhead through the short term period of the forecast. An upper low currently across western IL will deepen and drop SE in the flow through today and remain in place across the state through tomorrow. At the surface, a cold front currently stretches from the central Great Lakes back through the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
1042 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 The latest surface analysis is showing that the cold front extended from low pressure over the western Great Lakes southward to just east and southeast of the CWA into central Arkansas with high pressure centered over Nebraska. An extensive area of stratus and stratocumulus that is rotating around the south side of an upper trough currently over Great Lakes is expected to decrease over the area as the trough moves off to the east this evening. Latest runs of the HREF/GFS/NAM does show northwesterly upper flow setting up over the area the next 36 hours as the upper trough moves off to the east, but with the atmosphere remains dry through a deep layer will keep the forecast dry.
318 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 A cold front moves into the area from the west today bringing shower and thunderstorm chances.
Near seasonal to slightly above average temps expected with daytime highs topping out in the low to mid 90's and overnight lows in the low to mid 70's. High pressure ridging across Florida will produce light winds less than 10 knots and low rain chances for today. The ridge shifts south by late Thursday into Friday as a weak front moves into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. High pressure ridging across Florida will dominate the weather over the next couple of days keeping benign weather over the region. The high pressure shifts southward late Thursday into Friday as a weak frontal boundary settles in over the GA/FL line.
Clear and warmer to the west. The areas underneath the cloud cover are reporting temps 10 to 15 degrees warmer than the bare sky areas to the west. The clouds will slowly shift east as Canadian high pressure builds. Areas in western WI will remain about 10 degrees cooler today, topping out in the mid 60s, unable to recover from the loss of sun/heating.
A very quiet night, especially for early September, is underway across the Florida Keys, with isolated late night showers limited to the offshore Gulf waters and the Lower Straits of Florida. Surface analysis depicts a narrow and weak high pressure ridge extending from South Florida eastward into the western Atlantic, with weak easterly flow prevailing across the Keys area to the south of this ridge.