Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
218 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 Forecast summary: - A cooler pattern overall in place for much of the week with little opportunity for significant heat to build back in for the near-term.
With the center of a mid-level ridge now displaced to our west, subtle northwest flow has returned aloft.
1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 (Today and tonight) Looks like another very hot day across the area with a strong upper level high over the area and an intense low level thermal ridge over the northwest part of the area.
This activity has since waned with just a couple tiny showers remaining over the western Straits with one to the north of the Lower Keys over the Bayside and Gulfside waters. Therefore, temperatures along the Island Chain are currently in the lower to mid 90s with dew points near 80 degrees leading to heat index values up to 112 degrees. The Keys remain in this col region with strong high pressure over the central Atlantic with weak high pressure extending westward through the Bahamas and then the Florida Keys.
BB/03 (Now through Monday) An upper trof located mostly over the northern Plains advances into the interior eastern states through Monday while an upper ridge strengthens across the northern Gulf.
With the upper high sliding a little further east, it will not be as hot this upcoming week with highs running a few degrees above normal. The low temperature at the Tucson airport this morning was a very warm 85 degrees.
627 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 An active pattern looks to continue across the Central and Southern Plains with short wave troughs moving southeast across the region.
Another warmer than normal night is expected with morning lows from the mid 70s to near 80F.
605 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) The upper level high pressure system, with E-W axis across the Southwestern CONUS/northern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to persist during the period per deterministic output from global/mesoscale models. The upper ridge and below normal PWATs will preclude precipitation. With respect to Heat Index values, a drier vertical column may result in slightly warmer 2-meter temperatures, yet lower surface dew points from vertical mixing of drier air from aloft.
Low pressure in Southeast Iowa is dipping southeastward this evening through the overnight hours. A cold frontal passage tonight will bring an end to much of the precipitation, dropping highs to the lower half of the 80s Monday. Drier air moves in dropping lows Monday night to the lower 60s.
752 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 (This evening through Monday) A cold front associated with a mid/upper-level low across the Midwest is advancing southeastward across Oklahoma this afternoon with a drier and slightly cooler air mass advecting southward in its wake.
Forecast summary: - A cooler pattern overall in place for much of the week with little opportunity for significant heat to build back in for the near-term.
517 PM MDT Sun Aug 6 2023 Bottom line up front: An upper low departing to our east will continue to support a few showers across south central SD this afternoon, while another wave approaching from the west will bring showers and storms to western portions of the area later this afternoon through tomorrow. WV/IR imagery this afternoon shows an upper low centered over IA gradually shifting eastward away from our area. Lingering deep moisture along the backside of this low is contributing to a broad cloud shield and embedded showers/storms as far west as central SD. Though warmer than yesterday for most, temperatures around the area remain a solid 10 to 15 degrees below average. As first upper low departs to our east this evening, any lingering shower activity across south central SD should cease.
This will likely be the last night we see light and variable winds as the subtropical ridge out across the Atlantic is building back westward. Weak high pressure over the Florida Keys will maintain light to gentle northeast to east breezes, becoming east to southeast overnight.
542 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) The subtropical ridge extends from the Atlantic to the Pacific with a 597 high extending from Baja across Srn NM into Central TX. An upper trough swinging across the Upper MS valley Monday and another trough moving down out of the NW US will have little effect on the ridge.
In mid-upper levels, anomalous high heights will persist through Monday from general ridging.
Weak upper low in west-central Idaho provided enough instability for afternoon thunderstorms in Baker and northern Malheur Counties in Oregon, and in Adams and Valley Counties in Idaho. Moisture and instability away from the low also led to thunderstorms around midday from northern Ada County into Elmore County, and this afternoon in Owyhee and Twin Falls Counties. All activity will end tonight and stay quiet through Monday morning as the weak upper low exits east of our CWA. Another Pacific trough will replace the departing low later Monday and Monday evening. A surface cold front will move eastward across our CWA Monday afternoon and early evening with more showers and strong thunderstorms especially in northern areas.
Cooler and more quiet wx conditions can at least be expected this evening, given a rain cooled air mass now in place.
224 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023 A few more cooler than average days are expected across the region, with opportunities for primarily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continuing.
Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s. With the cooler temperatures and light wind, patchy fog will likely develop. Tuesday looks to be the nicest day we'll have over the forecast period with plenty of sun and highs mainly in the low to mid 80s.
900 PM PDT Sun Aug 6 2023 High pressure over the Southwest will slowly weaken for gradual cooling this week.
The main story for this afternoon is a quasi-linear area of showers and thunderstorms that have developed along a cold front in northeast Minnesota, mainly just north of the Brainerd Lakes to Iron Range. As this is a very slow moving cold front in an atmosphere with high PWAT values, some minor and localized flooding issues could result this afternoon and early evening. A period of dry and warm weather is expected Monday through Tuesday morning with high pressure moving in. Winds will be northwesterly on Monday, then becoming southwesterly on Tuesday as high pressure moves east.
(Today and tonight) Looks like another day of dangerous heat across much of the area with a strong upper level high over the area and an intense low level thermal ridge over the western part of the area. However a weak cold front may make it a few degrees cooler across the northern Big Country(highs 101 to 103), but increasing low level moisture will make heat index values close to 110.
Water vapor imagery suggests mean-layer ridging extends from northern Mexico, east into the western North Atlantic. There is a subtle weakness in the ridge from a stretched upper low lumbering west near the Yucatan. The weakness in the mean-layer ridge will do-si-do to the west of Florida for the next several days, which will keep the Keys in neutral, or very weak subsidence.
but near 12Z as the next upper trough approaches the region.
Three notable areas of low pressure are analyzed in the vicinity early this afternoon: 1) over northern Ontario, 2) over eastern Iowa, and 3) over northern Indiana. A weak area of low-level convergence extends north-northeastward from the Iowa low, connecting with a cold front extending southwest from the Ontario low. This will effectively cause the low-level forcing associated with the convergence boundary to wash out. A fairly seasonable night is expected with lows in the low 50s in the interior to the low 60s along the lakeshore.
Warmer temperatures near 80F are expected in some of the interior and southern portions of the UP.
212 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 While dry high pressure will dominate much of the area, we won't be able to completely rule out afternoon showers over portions of mainly south central SD today.
Cool conds expected today with highs only in the 60s for a large portion of the area, even cooler in the BH. Main upper trough will cross the region Tues with additional chances for showers and storms Tue afternoon and evening. Still cool but slightly warmer conds Tues with highs in the 70s and few lower 80s.
Brusda /ISSUED 530 PM MDT Sun Aug 6 2023/ A slow moving upper level low continues to linger over the area today, resulting in a fairly widespread area of light to moderate rainfall across North Central Montana this afternoon. Ahead of this system, Monday still looks somewhat cloudy and cool for this time of year, with highs across Southwestern Montana topping out in the low to mid 70s, with highs near 80 across the Plains. Upper level ridging will build in on Tuesday, which should help kick the showers and storms out of the area by the late afternoon.
1047 PM MDT Sun Aug 6 2023 Bottom line up front: An upper low departing to our east will continue to support a few showers across south central SD this afternoon, while another wave approaching from the west will bring showers and storms to western portions of the area later this afternoon through tomorrow. WV/IR imagery this afternoon shows an upper low centered over IA gradually shifting eastward away from our area. Lingering deep moisture along the backside of this low is contributing to a broad cloud shield and embedded showers/storms as far west as central SD. Though warmer than yesterday for most, temperatures around the area remain a solid 10 to 15 degrees below average. As first upper low departs to our east this evening, any lingering shower activity across south central SD should cease.
These short waves and jet streak will bring surface pressure falls in lee of the Rockies setting up a surface pressure trough in eastern New Mexico. A cold front currently moving through the area was shifting winds to the east and bringing in significant low level moisture. With the pressure falls expected in lee of the Rockies this afternoon, this front will likely make a retreat northward as a warm front shifting winds back to the southeast. Areas for convection will be favored along and north of the warm frontal boundary with stronger upslope flow and moisture availability.
1223 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) The subtropical ridge extends from the Atlantic to the Pacific with a 597 high extending from Baja across Srn NM into Central TX. An upper trough swinging across the Upper MS valley Monday and another trough moving down out of the NW US will have little effect on the ridge.
As of this morning, convection continues along a cold frontal boundary across the region that brought severe wind damage reports across Dubois, Orange, and Washington counties in Indiana. However, model soundings have enough instability (CAPE values 1500 to 2000+ J/KG) and wind dynamics associated with the upper level trough/jet to bring more chances for severe weather, despite cloud cover from ongoing convection earlier this morning.
This has been brought to us as the upper level high centered over the state the last several days has shifted back to the southwest.
There was a short break in the clouds between last nights MCV circling to our northeast and the incoming low pressure system. North of this line has the higher values of CIN. The storms that develop will be supported mainly by the high shear values. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen which will push more moisture into central Illinois. Delaney Low pressure will move across central Illinois overnight bringing changing wind directions, IFR ceilings and spotty showers. As the low departs Monday morning, winds will set up out of the northwest in its wake, and expect precip to end with gradual improvement to MVFR for a few hours followed by VFR conditions by mid afternoon.
315 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Early morning surface analysis shows an area of low pressure centered directly over southeast Michigan, with a trailing trough axis arcing southwest into northern Indiana. A secondary window for shower development will emerge as the lingering troughing engages daytime heating, particularly across the thumb, where existing moisture depth proves adequate enough despite very limited instability confined within the lowest 3km. Lingering mid level troughing releases eastward by Tuesday, offering a standard warming trend as the thermal profile responds accordingly to increasing upper level heights. Highs back in the lowers 80s most locations.
Cooler and more quiet wx conditions can at least be expected this evening, given a rain cooled air mass now in place. (Monday through Tuesday night) A similar scenario will follow on Monday, as an upper low continues to shift over the Great Lakes and a cold front will extend across the Appalachians to the Mid-South. Behind this activity, a cold front is expected to push through the area and bring a brief break from storms north of the Tennessee River, and low to mid chances (30-40%) for storms closer to the front south of the Tennessee River.
331 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Key Message: *Rain ends early this morning, then drying out for the afternoon with seasonable temperatures This Morning: Upper low and associated deformation axis continue to produce an area of light to moderate rain mainly south of highway 30, with even a few pockets of localized heavier rain south of I-80.
Models are showing a shift in the current pattern by the weekend as the ridge axis lifts north and we return to a more easterly flow. No major threat of marine hazards through the week as the ridge axis remains to the south and the flow continues to be from the S/SW.
Low pressure west of the Northern Rockies and ample moisture will continue the cool, cloudy, rainy trend. Areas north of about I-90 will see continued clouds, cooler than normal daytime high temperatures, and about 20-40 percent chance for at least measurable rainfall (0.
Mainly quiet for tonight, with a ridge of high pressure slowly building in from the west. A bit of cloud cover returns tonight to eastern upper MI, as the southernmost portion of surface trof and associated moisture works in.
Zonal NW flow will be disrupted on Tuesday morning by a low pressure system moving to the SE across southern Canada.
220 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Low pressure will exit the region today with lingering scattered showers through midday.
1111 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 (This evening through Monday) A cold front associated with a mid/upper-level low across the Midwest is advancing southeastward across Oklahoma this afternoon with a drier and slightly cooler air mass advecting southward in its wake.
Lower dewpoints working south into the area will help reinforce cooler temperatures today, making for a nice break from the recent heat.
1217 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) The upper level high pressure system, with E-W axis across the Southwestern CONUS/northern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to persist during the period per deterministic output from global/mesoscale models. The upper ridge and below normal PWATs will preclude precipitation. With respect to Heat Index values, a drier vertical column may result in slightly warmer 2-meter temperatures, yet lower surface dew points from vertical mixing of drier air from aloft.
1044 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 An active pattern looks to continue across the Central and Southern Plains with short wave troughs moving southeast across the region.
219 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023 A few more cooler than average days are expected across the region, with opportunities for primarily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continuing.
A weak upper level trough will swing through the region today affecting mainly portions of NW WI causing a slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Position of upper level jet will allow for sct aftn showers and storms over the higher terrain with outflow boundaries triggering sct storms over the plains by mid to late aftn. Finally, as far as highs this aftn, readings should rise into the lower to mid 80s over nern CO. Models do not have a good handle on the onset timing of a trough axis sweeping through northeastern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming.
640 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 (Today) Another stormy day is expected across the Tennessee Valley as a weak cold front approaches from the NW.
614 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 An unseasonably strong low pressure system will track from the Ohio Valley this morning to the Eastern Great Lakes tonight, pushing a cold front through Pennsylvania.
723 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Aviation As one low pressure center departs another will move south of Lower Michigan today before merging with the first low across the NE US.
Middle and high clouds associated with the upper trough over Illinois should exit Wisconsin today, but an elevated smoke layer moving in from the north may make it appear to be somewhat cloudy today. Not much cooler near the lake or bay due to mild water temperatures. Tuesday should be similar to today, though a bit warmer.
620 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Mid-level ridging will remain in place through the period. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
524 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Active pattern continues across the northern Rockies the next several days as the ridge continues to be suppressed across northern Mexico.
546 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 (Today and tonight) Looks like another day of dangerous heat across much of the area with a strong upper level high over the area and an intense low level thermal ridge over the western part of the area. However a weak cold front may make it a few degrees cooler across the northern Big Country(highs 101 to 103), but increasing low level moisture will make heat index values close to 110.
953 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Warm and humid conditions continuing today as mid level ridging remains in control across the region. Models are showing a shift in the current pattern by the weekend as the ridge axis lifts north and we return to a more easterly flow. No major threat of marine hazards through the week as the ridge axis remains to the south and the flow continues to be from the S/SW.
Low level southeasterly flow will help maintain dewpoints in the high-50s for the eastern most counties in the Nebraska Panhandle and mid-50s into Goshen County.
740 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 An unseasonably strong low pressure system will track from the Ohio Valley this morning to the Eastern Great Lakes tonight, pushing a cold front through Pennsylvania.
A cold front will move across the Mid-South today and stall just south of the region early this week ushering in cooler temperatures.
558 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 (Today through Tuesday) 500mb heights are expected to be slightly greater across the region today compared to yesterday, which is expected to contribute to slightly warmer and drier conditions.
608 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 While dry high pressure will dominate much of the area, we won't be able to completely rule out afternoon showers over portions of mainly south central SD today.
Low pressure centered over IL will slide east into IN and OH today, but will leave us with mostly cloudy skies and breezy northeast winds this morning, gradually shifting more northerly throughout the day as it does. Winds are then expected to decrease this evening and overnight as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes Region. A weak cold front is expected to move southeast across WI tonight into Tuesday morning, with CAMs suggesting some showers developing along the boundary as it moves. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected Tuesday with diurnal cumulus expected to develop in the afternoon, light west-northwest winds, and highs in the low 80s.
The lull may be short-lived, with convection likely to redevelop from mid-morning into the afternoon hours as airmass recovery occurs just ahead of the cold front. As of this morning, convection continues along a cold frontal boundary across the region that brought severe wind damage reports across Dubois, Orange, and Washington counties in Indiana. However, model soundings have enough instability (CAPE values 1500 to 2000+ J/KG) and wind dynamics associated with the upper level trough/jet to bring more chances for severe weather, despite cloud cover from ongoing convection earlier this morning.
A series of minor upper troughs are forecast to move east across the PACNW through mid week, which will aid in promoting neutral upper height tendencies across NRN CA and preclude the development of significant summer heat. Thereafter, troughing offshore from CA is forecast to evolve into an upper low during late week.
528 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 The low levels remain saturated early this morning, with cigs in the 300-800 foot range across most of southeast Michigan, along with patches of drizzle. Early morning surface analysis shows an area of low pressure centered directly over southeast Michigan, with a trailing trough axis arcing southwest into northern Indiana. A secondary window for shower development will emerge as the lingering troughing engages daytime heating, particularly across the thumb, where existing moisture depth proves adequate enough despite very limited instability confined within the lowest 3km. Lingering mid level troughing releases eastward by Tuesday, offering a standard warming trend as the thermal profile responds accordingly to increasing upper level heights. Highs back in the lowers 80s most locations.
As the next PNW trough moves onshore today, we will see a continuation of isolated to scattered showers and storms, as well as below normal temperatures. Area-wide chances for wetting rains will continue through late morning Tuesday as a closed low shifts over Idaho. A ridge will build in from the west behind the passing trough, bringing a warming and drying trend for the latter half of the week.
1005 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Warm and humid conditions continuing today as mid level ridging remains in control across the region. Models are showing a shift in the current pattern by the weekend as the ridge axis lifts north and we return to a more easterly flow. No major threat of marine hazards through the week as the ridge axis remains to the south and the flow continues to be from the S/SW.
A stronger leeside trough will develop later this afternoon, and it will be along the lee trough axis across eastern Colorado into adjacent far western Kansas where incipient severe thunderstorm development will most likely occur.
(Today through Tuesday) Mid-level ridging will remain in place through the period. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
(Today) Another stormy day is expected across the Tennessee Valley as a weak cold front approaches from the NW.
415 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Active pattern continues across the northern Rockies the next several days as the ridge continues to be suppressed across northern Mexico.
A few more cooler than average days are expected across the region, with opportunities for primarily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continuing.
758 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023 A few more cooler than average days are expected across the region, with opportunities for primarily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continuing.
650 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Low pressure will exit the region today with lingering scattered showers through midday.
Key Message: *Rain ends early this morning, then drying out for the afternoon with seasonable temperatures This Morning: Upper low and associated deformation axis continue to produce an area of light to moderate rain mainly south of highway 30, with even a few pockets of localized heavier rain south of I-80.
1042 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Low pressure will exit the region today with lingering scattered showers through midday.
JEH/88 (Now through Tuesday) An upper trof progresses across the interior eastern states through Tuesday while the axis of an upper ridge over the northern Gulf is deflected a bit southward.