Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A longwave ridge extends from the Canadian Rockies to the Mexican Border. A few pockets of moisture remain under this ridge, but for the most part, things are pretty quiet across the Mountain West. Cooler temperatures, thanks to the push of northwest flow ahead of the ridge, are expected this afternoon. Wednesday's highs should be a few degrees cooler across the region. The ridge axis exits over the Continental Divide this afternoon. The shift in flow will come ahead of a trough making its way ashore in SOCAL.
(Today and tonight) The subtropical ridge that has been in place across the Southern Plains and shifted to the southeast over the Texas Gulf coast.
The ridge axis lifts north for over the weekend, continuing the light flow but allowing for more S/SE in the mornings.
553 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 (Today and tonight) Today's weather will largely be centered around a cold front entering the area from the north. Fire Weather: A low level thermal ridge will develop ahead of the approaching front through western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. This westerly low level flow will enhance mixing (thus, warmer and drier) and bring down breezy winds. The highest winds and minimum RH will be slightly out of sync (low level jet moves off eastward by afternoon), but still result in elevated fire weather conditions. Additionally, a heat advisory has been expanded, again driven by the higher temperatures under the thermal ridge.
and Thursday A cold front stretched from around MQT to STC at 09z.
The convection will linger over eastern Kansas this morning then shift east into Missouri by this afternoon, as the upper level system tracks eastward with associated cold front pushing southward across Kansas today.
612 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 (Today and tonight) The forecast area will remain on the north side of a flat upper level ridge whose axis extends from Sonora to Florida. However, an upper level short wave trough over the Colorado/Wyoming Rocky Mountain chain early this morning will move eastward today, crossing Kansas and Nebraska this afternoon.
622 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) An upper ridge continues to dominate the weather in southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. Highs today are expected to reach well above a hundred degrees for most locations however model guidance may be on the high end of the forecast due to abundant mid and upper level cloud cover over the area from convective debris from northern Mexico and New Mexico. Again there will be rain chances along the trough with the best chances in the Big Bend and Davis Mountains.
A surface through lower level ridge stretches from the Atlantic, across South Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico. This mornings sounding indicated some warm and dry air through the lower levels. This along with the proximity to the ridge axis and weak kinematic fields have limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Winds will remain light and predominantly out of the southeast through the afternoon due to the persistent ridge across South Florida. A ridge axis across South Florida will maintain light broadly southeasterly breezes across Keys waters this afternoon.
735 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 An active weather day is in store across the Mid-South as a couple of upper level troughs will bring periods of thunderstorms to the region today and tonight.
620 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 A dry day is expected today as high pressure passes overhead and we remain between systems.
This cloud cover helped break Tucson's 100 degree day streak and allowing the region to a slightly cooler morning than the previous days, or even weeks. The High Pressure Center in Texas starts to shift more towards Arizona with a Low Pressure Center off of California moving every so lightly around the coast.
(Thursday through Wednesday) The cold front is forecast to stall near the Red River into Thursday with brief break from the heat.
This will support another afternoon of relatively cool temperatures as highs only reach the low/mid 80s. DNVA in the wake of the upper trough along with CAA will also suppress convective activity this evening and overnight, providing a quiet night for our area with lows dropping into the upper 50s northwest to low 60s southeast. Roughly zonal mid-level flow will be maintained daytime Thursday between a ~595-dm subtropical ridge over the southern plains and northern Mexico and longwave troughing over southern Canada. As a result of this pattern, enough momentum will exist over the central Rockies to promote renewed lee cyclone development in eastern CO.
Upper level analysis places low over Ontario and ridge stretching from the Four Corners Region northward through central Montana, resulting in northwest flow over our area. Late tonight, aforementioned upper ridge will pass over as a rather stout short wave makes its entrance into western portions of our area, bringing additional shower/storm chances late overnight.
This low will bring heavy rain northeast into eastern PA midday into evening as the low gets to Long Island.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Mid-level high pressure will continue to dominate over Texas through the coming short term period.
355 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread this evening ahead of low pressure. The low will exit Ohio early Thursday and a cold front will trail it in the afternoon, moving southeast and marking the end of any lingering showers. Considerable cloud cover lingers in the wake of the low and begins to scatter out from the northwest in the afternoon. High temperatures are expected to top out in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
207 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low in Ontario which moves slowly southeast through 12z Fri. This will keep an upper level trough over the area through tonight. With the surface cold front fully out of the region by Thursday morning, Thursday should be cooler, with the majority of model guidance hinting that Marquette and much of the Lake Superior shoreline may not even reach the 70. Despite the high clouds, some fog potential exists for some interior locations, as winds die down significantly and temperatures are expected to fall into the 40s, meeting the dew point.
For this afternoon, the highest severe weather threat favors the southwest while the entire area has a chance for severe weather overnight. The thunderstorms have been steadily weakening as they marched towards the TN River with the strongest thunderstorms becoming focused towards the south where mesoanalysis indicates greater instability along a warm front to our south. As the previously mentioned deeper trough moves into Arkansas/Missouri, a line of thunderstorms will develop late this evening and quickly move into Middle TN through early morning.
A weak cold front very slowly moving south is located along/near the border of the Dakotas. On Thursday afternoon/evening, an area of low pressure (presently out over British Columbia province) will work through the region, sweeping a cold front over the CWA. 12Z CAMS are in agreement of isolated to scattered discrete (super) cells forced on the cold front along/east of the Missouri River valley and then gradually forming into a (broken) line of storms by the time they are crossing over into Minnesota.
Current convection is brewing in the Plains, centered around the area of low pressure moving into western Kansas.
A relatively weak cold front will swing through western Montana and north central Idaho through the rest of this afternoon and evening from northwest to southeast. Hail also can't be completely ruled out, but given elevated freezing levels above 13K feet and marginal instability, large hail doesn't seem likely. By Thursday, an overall cooler and drier airmass will be in place.
A weak surface cyclone is being washed out by a cold frontal push from northern Harmon County to the OKC metro. The cold front will add an additional layer of complications, as northerly winds will be oblique to current fire heads. Tomorrow, we move back onto the periphery of the ridge with northwest flow across the northern reaches of our CWA.
1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) An upper ridge continues to dominate the weather in southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. Highs today are expected to reach well above a hundred degrees for most locations however model guidance may be on the high end of the forecast due to abundant mid and upper level cloud cover over the area from convective debris from northern Mexico and New Mexico. Again there will be rain chances along the trough with the best chances in the Big Bend and Davis Mountains.
1223 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 (Today and tonight) Today's weather will largely be centered around a cold front entering the area from the north. Fire Weather: A low level thermal ridge will develop ahead of the approaching front through western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. This westerly low level flow will enhance mixing (thus, warmer and drier) and bring down breezy winds. The highest winds and minimum RH will be slightly out of sync (low level jet moves off eastward by afternoon), but still result in elevated fire weather conditions. Additionally, a heat advisory has been expanded, again driven by the higher temperatures under the thermal ridge.
Satellite, radar, and models depict a warm front moving across the area and ushering in a very moist and unstable atmosphere this evening into the overnight, with a second round of showers and storms moving across the forecast area in association with the main upper disturbance and surface front.
135 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Dry weather today will be followed by more widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday with crossing low pressure. Daytime highs will be right around normal for this time of year, with highs in the low 80s (upper 70s in the mountains). 06Z runs have trended farther with the low track.
With the ridge maintaining a hold over SE Texas, daytime temperatures will once again reach and exceed 100F for most locations.
1237 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 (Today and tonight) The forecast area will remain on the north side of a flat upper level ridge whose axis extends from Sonora to Florida. However, an upper level short wave trough over the Colorado/Wyoming Rocky Mountain chain early this morning will move eastward today, crossing Kansas and Nebraska this afternoon.
A mid to upper-level, broad high pressure ridge over the southern United States and northern Mexico is bringing southwest winds into southern Arizona and with it moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This cloud cover helped break Tucson's 100 degree day streak and allowing the region to a slightly cooler morning than the previous days, or even weeks. The High Pressure Center in Texas starts to shift more towards Arizona with a Low Pressure Center off of California moving every so lightly around the coast.
Temperature see little change Thursday from today, with the shift in the upper ridge over the Gulf small along with better heating Thursday due to the drier airmass moving over the forecast area Thursday. Tonight, temperatures are expected to range from the low 70s over northeastern portions of the forecast area to around 80 along the coast.
Thursday will see mid and upper level ridging flatten as a wave moves into the areas by late afternoon. While the GFS is a bit weak on instability both the RAP and Nam suggest something close to 2000 J/kg CAPE in this area with some decent directional shear in the lowest couple of km.
321 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low in Ontario which moves slowly southeast through 12z Fri. This will keep an upper level trough over the area through tonight.
The wind shift will provide a slightly cooler overnight than we've seen recently but the relief won't last long.
147 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms tonight from west to east ahead of a cold front. Temperatures tomorrow are slightly cooler than today, but still near normal.
Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected from the KBNO area north to around KBKE and east to KMYL along and ahead of a weak cold front.
154 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Weak high pressure is in place across south Florida with an upper high over the Gulf of Mexico. Not much change for the next few days other than the ridge axis slowly lifting a touch north to across the area. Afternoon temperatures will continue in the lower to mid 90s for most locations and spots of upper 90s, along with heat indices around 110. Overnight lows will continue in the mid to upper 70s inland to the lower 80s near the coast. Light winds and seas will continue across the waters as weak ridging remains across the southern half of the state through the weekend.
Dangerous heat and critically dry conditions across all of Ridging aloft will build back and strengthen across the region through Thursday, along with zonal (generally westerly) flow over West Central Texas. The slightly lower overnight lows can be attributed to a weak cold front tracking through the Big Country and northern portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland this evening through early Thursday morning.
1017 AM PDT Wed Aug 9 2023 A cold front will bring light rain showers to the Inland Northwest today as well as breezy west winds this afternoon.
1258 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 An active weather day is in store across the Mid-South as a couple of upper level troughs will bring periods of thunderstorms to the region today and tonight.
Temps are a bit cooler today over the region was than this time yesterday as somewhat cooler air has moved into the region. Temps will once again warm up over the plains again with highs returning ot the 80s and 90s, but the higher terrain will likely be a few degrees cooler due to the increased cloudiness and showers over the higher elevations. Today will overall be very dry and quiet, weather-wise, with upper- level ridging building in overhead with relatively weak winds. Outside of the lower-end chance for a weak, short-lived shower or two over the mountains, there should be no precipitation in the area today. The increasing moisture (clouds/precip/higher RH) over the mtns will likely assist in helping control the fires which are ongoing over the higher terrain, although the increased lighting may start a few new fires.
Attention then turns southwest as a warm front across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas lifts northward as cloud debris further thins leading to increasing instability on the order of 2500 joules close to I-44 and 3500 along the Arkansas border. Severe storm threat will end northwest to southeast along and south of Highway 60 this evening as a cold front approaches. The prevailing weather feature this summer, the southwest upper ridge will then build northward along the front range initially and then into the Central Plains by this weekend.
140 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Satellite imagery today shows the ridge over Montana ahead of a progressing trough that will push a cold front through our area tonight. While the frontal passage will occur during the overnight hours with limited shear and instability, the energy from the trough and decent mid-level frontogenesis will create enough ascent for showers and thunderstorms to sustain through the night. High temperatures will be slightly cooler Thursday in the mid to upper 80s.
Key Points - Continues slightly cooler than normal through much of the forecast period.
236 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2023 A couple small showers popped up in southeast Lincoln County at mid day, but are now moving on their way with mostly sunny skies and relatively pleasant/cooler than normal summer temperatures across the forecast area.
107 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 A dry day is expected today as high pressure passes overhead and we remain between systems.
Satellite imagery shows high pressure ridge axis over eastern areas along the Wyoming border with an upper level trough over WA/OR. Models show a weak trough moving through tonight into tomorrow morning. Expect gusts of around 25 mph for ridgetops elsewhere.
303 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Through Thursday Early convection over far northern MS remained out of our CWA and temperatures reached the low-upper 90s this afternoon.
Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South tonight as a cold front moves into the Mid-South.
Forecast is on track for pleasant (cooler than normal) temperatures and light northerly breezes. The urban corridor and plains will reach the low to mid 80s. The mid level moisture will aid in creating isolated storms across the higher terrain but the limited low level moisture will keep most of these storms from making it onto the eastern plains. Therefore, PoPs were mostly kept to the higher terrain.
1238 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 (Today through Thursday) Hot and dry conditions continue today and tomorrow as mid-level high pressure continues to dominate over South-Central Texas. Lows will generally be in the mid-70s to low 80s, roughly 3-5 degrees warmer than normal this time of year. Another hot day Thursday, similar or a degree or so warmer than those seen this afternoon.
Northerly winds behind a cold front which moved across the CWA are slowly starting to decrease. H500 high pressure center will remain south over downstate TX on Thursday. Clear skies and increasing low level temperatures will lead to highs being a bit warmer tomorrow.
310 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low in Ontario which moves slowly southeast through 12z Fri. This will keep an upper level trough over the area through tonight.
Warmer temperatures are forecast for Thursday with high temperatures in the mid 80s. Behind this system, high pressure is forecast to build into northern Missouri tonight. High pressure is forecast to slowly shift from northern Missouri into Illinois during the day on Thursday. Temperatures will be warmer with high temperatures in the mid 80s across the area.
Even though latest ML lapse rates are rather weak, 0 to 6km bulk shear is around 50kts from the west, so with the increasing instability, decent deep layer shear, and lift from a cold front that is sinking southeast across the region this afternoon, expect thunderstorms will begin to redevelop between 3 and 5 pm. Even through the storms will likely form as discrete supercells, the orientation of the shear in relation to the cold front will favor the storms to congeal into more of a liner structure.
As a upper ridge over the southern US, and a upper trough off California funnel monsoonal moisture into the great basin. The upper level remnants of tropical storm Eugene will track northeast around the periphery of the broad upper ridge over the southern US before stalling along the California coast. Unfortunately, this trough will not directly affect NV, but as the upper pattern stalls and this Low remains over the coast of central CA it will in tandem with the upper ridge, direct monsoonal moisture into NV by way of AZ and the gulf of California.
312 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 A warm front will move northward warm front on Thursday.
North Atlantic ridging established across the Bahamas and southern Mainland Florida will continue to promote east to southeasterly breezes thus blanketing our area with SAL.
1235 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 (Today and tonight) The subtropical ridge that has been in place across the Southern Plains and shifted to the southeast over the Texas Gulf coast.
Tonight and Thursday This afternoon's radar and satellite imagery showed isolated showers and thunderstorms moving southeast across east-central WI ahead of a surface cold front, with additional showers beginning to move into central and north-central WI behind the cold front. The showers and storms in east-central WI will gradually exit the region by early this evening as the cold front slowly drops further south. High pressure will bring dry conditions to the region for Thursday following the cold frontal passage. Mostly sunny skies are expected with high temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than Wednesday, with readings ranging from the low to middle 70s in north-central WI to the upper 70s to low 80s in east-central WI.
At 8 PM MDT a weak cold front extending through Great Falls/MT - Mountain Home/ID - Winnemucca/NV was shifting east. With the front on its way out, skies will clear from west to east tonight and temps will be several degrees cooler overnight and Thursday.
526 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Thanks to a ridge aloft and deep subsidence, continued quiet weather expected tonight into tomorrow with temperatures cooling to the 40s and 50s overnight.
Ridging remains to our south bringing a west to southwest flow across the area. Slight backing of synoptic scale winds (SSW-SW through Fri, SSW- SSE this weekend) will accompany slight northward drift of the Atlantic ridge axis.
Our weather pattern continues to be dominated by a broad upper ridge extending from Sonora Mexico eastward to Florida. Clockwise flow around upper ridge is ushering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into our forecast area.
A similar start to the evening with isolated showers developing in the lee of the Lower Keys during the afternoon hours with the southerly flow. In the last hour a boundary lifted north and west of the Lower Keys and sparked off showers and a very brief thundershower. High pressure centered over the central North Atlantic extending westward across the Florida Peninsula will support gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters for the next several days.
Weak high pressure is in place across south Florida with an upper high over the Gulf of Mexico. Not much change for the next few days other than the ridge axis slowly lifting a touch north to across the area. Afternoon temperatures will continue in the lower to mid 90s for most locations and spots of upper 90s, along with heat indices around 110. Overnight lows will continue in the mid to upper 70s inland to the lower 80s near the coast. Light winds and seas will continue across the waters as weak ridging remains across the southern half of the state through the weekend.
As a upper ridge over the southern US, and a upper trough off California funnel monsoonal moisture into the Great Basin. The upper level remnants of tropical storm Eugene will track northeast around the periphery of the broad upper ridge over the southern US before stalling along the California coast. Unfortunately, this trough will not directly affect NV, but as the upper pattern stalls and this Low remains over the coast of central CA it will in tandem with the upper ridge, direct monsoonal moisture into NV by way of AZ and the gulf of California.
As the upper trough approaches from the west, lower level (850mb) flow will increase from the south, and some guidance indicates an area of storms will initiate near or just after midnight along the 850-700mb baroclinic zone as warm air advection increases (southeast North Dakota). Key Points - Continues slightly cooler than normal through much of the forecast period.
The actual cold front is located over Lake Superior early this evening but a stronger upper wave tracking across the nrn Great Lakes will be enough to nudge the cold front across srn WI from 10-15Z Thu. Seasonal high temps in the lower 80s are forecast.
728 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low in Ontario which moves slowly southeast through 12z Fri. This will keep an upper level trough over the area through tonight.
334 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Thanks to a ridge aloft and deep subsidence, continued quiet weather expected tonight into tomorrow with temperatures cooling to the 40s and 50s overnight.
710 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South tonight as a cold front moves into the Mid-South.
(The rest of tonight) A compact upper level low with an associated surface front is currently pushing into northeast OK. Behind the cold front, some low level drying and cooling will be observed. (Thursday through Wednesday) The cold front is forecast to stall near the Red River into Thursday with brief break from the heat.