Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1239 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (Today through Saturday) Key Messages: - Dangerously Hot with elevated Fire Danger continuing today, and somewhat on Saturday We will continue our Heat over S Texas as the upper level ridge repositions itself a little more east of where it has been for most of this season. As the ridge moves, the expectation is for the temperatures to stay about the same, but we start to notice the RH beginning to rise in areas, to the west like near LRD.
1222 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (Today through Saturday night) More heat expected for more of the area today, and with it more exasperated sighs of Panhandle residents ready for cooler weather. Strengthening high pressure aloft and warming 850mb temps should allow several areas to be even hotter than yesterday. High pressure meanders slightly eastward on Saturday, but will still be the dominant influence on our weather.
1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Upper ridging strengthens overhead today into the weekend and should squash precipitation chances, even for the mountains.
(This evening through Saturday) The upper level high is expected to shift slightly northeast, centering over Oklahoma and Kansas. The 850 mb thermal ridge will weaken slightly over our area, allowing our temperatures to drop a couple degrees for Saturday.
222 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Tonight into Tomorrow: Mostly clear skies and warming temperatures continue today into tomorrow as the upper-level ridge builds east over the Mississippi River Valley.
Clear skies and warming temperatures continue today as the upper- level ridge builds east over the Mississippi River Valley. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a large 594dam high centered over the southern Plains and a rather sharp upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. This was resulting in northwest flow aloft across our region that will help a weak dry reinforcing cold front drift through our CWA later today and tonight. There was currently no precipitation and very little cloud cover associated with this cold front that was noted on latest surface analysis, oriented northeast to southwest across central Arkansas. Despite the presence of the weak cold front, near full insolation of our warm airmass will lead to afternoon highs back in the upper 90s to lower 100s across the southwest half of our CWA.
On Saturday, increasing south winds will bring in much warmer temperatures.
A "dry" cold front extending roughly from along the TN/MS border to near Tullahoma and the TN/VA Tri Cities should sweep southward across the area over the next few hours. High pressure building in after the front passes will continue a dry and warm trend. Some of the MOS highs were into the lower 90s, which is not impossible with a strong August sun and a drier surface.
221 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Tonight into Tomorrow: Mostly clear skies and warming temperatures continue today into tomorrow as the upper-level ridge builds east over the Mississippi River Valley.
A longwave upper level ridge is located over the central CONUS early this afternoon. At the surface, a warm front extending south from an area of low pressure over southern Saskatchewan is moving east across western North Dakota. Strong moisture advection is ongoing ahead of the warm front, with dewpoints rising into the 60s across central North Dakota. Behind the warm front, temperatures have risen into the lower and mid 90s, but increased cloud may inhibit further warming for most of the rest of the afternoon. It will remain windy for most of the day behind the cold front, with highs forecast to range from the mid 70s northwest to near 90 southeast.
Winds relax this evening as high pressure builds in from the west and the local pressure gradient weakens. Light winds and low temps dipping into the low 50s (upper 40s in higher terrain and farther north) are expected tonight. Meanwhile, flow aloft remains out of the northwest as the local area will be positioned between a broad upper ridge over the central part of the country and an upper trough over eastern Canada.
The predominantly light/northerly flow should keep Gulf moisture at bay just a bit with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s with temperatures slowly creeping up.
748 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 High pressure builds over the weekend. Blocking high pressure pattern surface and aloft into the new week. Forecast on track with high pressure taking charge. Dry conditions ensue as a ridge of high pressure builds from the west. A pleasant day is in store on Saturday as the ridge continues to slide east.
Mid-level ridging continues to control the weather as it builds northeastward and strengthens across the Midwest. A minor inverted trough may move into Deep South Texas on Saturday night but this feature will not have any influence to our weather.
554 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) The upper ridge is centered over OK today and covers the middle of the country as a low spins along the CA coast.
A ridge to valley split of a few degrees has also developed and will persist through the overnight.
The 500mb high pressure remains strong and almost permanently anchored across the central/southern Plains.
958 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 A potent upper trough moving just north of Lake Ontario tonight will help to direct a noticeably cooler and less humid airmass into the Commonwealth with chilly temperatures in the upper 40s to upper 50s in store for tonight.
623 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Surface observations this afternoon show drier air continues to filter southward into the midstate in the wake of a weak cold front that has pushed south to near the Alabama border. Saturday looks very similar to today albeit just a few degrees warmer as the large upper level ridge dominating our weather remains centered over KS/OK.
603 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (Tonight) Warmer temperatures are anticipated across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas tonight as the weak boundary across the area washes out and a south-southeasterly breeze prevails through the night. (Saturday through Friday) Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas are in for a stretch of dangerous heat during this time-frame as high pressure reigns supreme at the surface and aloft.
623 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) A 594dm 500mb ridge is currently centered over the region which, combined with 850mb temperatures around 31C-35C, will allow for temperatures to climb into the 100s for almost the entire CWA. Saturday doesn't look much different as the upper-level ridge will be slightly further east and slightly stronger. Although widespread triple digit temperatures are expected again, most locations will be a couple degrees cooler than today. The primary exception to this will be in the northeastern combined Panhandles where temperatures will be up to 3 degrees warmer.
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Tonight into Tomorrow: Mostly clear skies and warming temperatures continue today into tomorrow as the upper-level ridge builds east over the Mississippi River Valley.
1000 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 A much drier, less humid and cooler airmass overspreads southern New England Friday night into Saturday.
Light winds and low temps dipping into the low 50s (upper 40s in higher terrain and farther north) are expected tonight. Light winds and low temps dipping into the low 50s (upper 40s in higher terrain and farther north) are expected tonight. Meanwhile, flow aloft remains out of the northwest as the local area will be positioned between a broad upper ridge over the central part of the country and an upper trough over eastern Canada.
Muscha (This evening through Saturday night) A 594dm 500mb ridge is currently centered over the region which, combined with 850mb temperatures around 31C-35C, will allow for temperatures to climb into the 100s for almost the entire CWA. Saturday doesn't look much different as the upper-level ridge will be slightly further east and slightly stronger. Although widespread triple digit temperatures are expected again, most locations will be a couple degrees cooler than today. The primary exception to this will be in the northeastern combined Panhandles where temperatures will be up to 3 degrees warmer.
651 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (This evening through Saturday) A 596 dam upper level high centered over Oklahoma will shift slowly to the north tonight and Saturday. Continued subsidence under the high will keep precip at bay while a slight decrease in 1000-500 mb thickness and surface winds a little more backed than today there should be a slight decrease in highs relative today. Both NBM and MOS support that, although the cooler NBM may be a bit optimistic. Beforehand, another quiet and mild night is in store with the dry air underneath the upper ridge.
(Saturday through Friday) Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas are in for a stretch of dangerous heat during this time-frame as high pressure reigns supreme at the surface and aloft.
637 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (Tonight) An upper level pattern with ridging situated over the southern Great Plains and troughing over southern Ontario/Quebec was in place over the greater North American domain. Closer to the surface under a NW flow, a weak cold front has moved southward across the area earlier today, bringing a shot of slightly drier air to the area. Air temperatures however were not really cooler, as 3 PM readings into the upper 80s and around 90 with a light NW wind. Lows tonight should cool into the lower 60s (mid 60s near the larger bodies of water) with light winds. The slightly drier and cooler air should not be conducive to a development of fog before daybreak Saturday.
A repeat of today is expected on Saturday, although the center of the mid level ridge axis will shift a tad farther north into the Plains which will open the door to a little more mid level moisture across our Central TX counties and slightly reduced heights. This should shave a few degrees off the highs into Central TX but it'll still be hot with readings between 102-107.
533 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Clear skies continue over the area with upper air analysis showing high pressure centered over the Plains. Surface analysis shows a trough situated just to our west, allowing for breezy south- southwesterly winds into the area. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the lower 60s west to middle 70s east, nearing record warm low temperatures for August 19th. Tomorrow, ridging continues to dominate the forecast so will have mostly clear skies with temperatures climbing into the middle 90s to 100s. Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
(This afternoon through Saturday) High pressure over the Ohio Valley to Mid Atlantic will keep our weather dry and rather pleasant over the next 24 to 36 hours. A weak surface boundary will sag south across the area, bringing just a reinforcing shot of slightly cooler/drier air to much of north and central GA tonight.
* None Strong deep-layer subsidence continues across the area through tonight as we experience sharp height rises with the departure of yesterday's trough. Gusty northwest winds will subside heading into this evening, leaving cool and mostly clear conditions tonight with the dry air allowing temps to dip into the lower 50s outside of the urban heat islands which will stay a few degrees warmer. Some of the typically cooler locales in the Thumb/Saginaw Valley may reach the upper 40s. Our area will avoid the excessive heat this weekend, but the northeast extension of the central Plains ridge will still bring a strong warm advection trend to the area.
1032 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 A potent upper trough moving just north of Lake Ontario tonight will help to direct a noticeably cooler and less humid airmass into the Commonwealth with chilly temperatures in the upper 40s to upper 50s in store for tonight.
725 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Aviation Upper level trough axis shifts east tonight with narrow axis of surface ridging moving overhead. We will see min temps Saturday morning drop into the lower 40s across the northern tier and mid 40s to lower 50s across the south. Southerly flow develops on Saturday with rising heights as upper ridging becomes established across the Central Plains. Conditions remain dry through the period as upper ridging brings general subsidence though Saturday night. As the heat builds /particularly to our west and south/ 500 mb heights will rise and the 500 mb ridge axis will sharpen across Upper MS Valley.
705 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Showers and thunderstorms overspread southern New England after sunrise Friday, with a warm front in the morning followed by cold front approaching from the west during the afternoon.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues this afternoon and tomorrow As the mid to upper-level high pressure remains anchored over the Southern Plains, a warm and moist air mass will continue to be advected into South Texas. This will promote warmer than normal temperautres, which when combined with the aviablable moisture will lead to dangerous heat index values.
615 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (This evening through Saturday) The upper level high is expected to shift slightly northeast, centering over Oklahoma and Kansas. The 850 mb thermal ridge will weaken slightly over our area, allowing our temperatures to drop a couple degrees for Saturday.
Upper level trough axis shifts east tonight with narrow axis of surface ridging moving overhead. We will see min temps Saturday morning drop into the lower 40s across the northern tier and mid 40s to lower 50s across the south. Southerly flow develops on Saturday with rising heights as upper ridging becomes established across the Central Plains. Conditions remain dry through the period as upper ridging brings general subsidence though Saturday night. As the heat builds /particularly to our west and south/ 500 mb heights will rise and the 500 mb ridge axis will sharpen across Upper MS Valley.
Winds will be more backed (SE-S) tonight with speeds 7-12kt, as the approaching t-wave moves across the Bahamas, shunting the ridge axis northward.
Lows are forecast to range between the lower 50s to upper 40s. Light winds and low temps dipping into the low 50s (upper 40s in higher terrain and farther north) are expected tonight. Meanwhile, flow aloft remains out of the northwest as the local area will be positioned between a broad upper ridge over the central part of the country and an upper trough over eastern Canada.
As the high builds southeastward into the central Appalachians overnight, winds will become light/variable, allowing for optimal radiational cooling but only a limited risk for fog development as early morning dewpoints should range from the m-u 50s (NE) to l-m 60s (SW).
657 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues this afternoon and tomorrow As the mid to upper-level high pressure remains anchored over the Southern Plains, a warm and moist air mass will continue to be advected into South Texas. This will promote warmer than normal temperatures, which when combined with the available moisture will lead to dangerous heat index values.
Evening RAP & synoptic/00Z upper air analysis indicates mean ridge, up to 596DM, centered over the Plains to ArkLaTex. As the Great Lakes/CONUS longwave trough/frontal system swings east, the ridge is progged to build east. 6 PWs in evening regional soundings/GOES East total PWs, moisture return aloft or into the low-levels will remain at a minimum. /DC/ Tonight into Tomorrow: Mostly clear skies and warming temperatures continue today into tomorrow as the upper-level ridge builds east over the Mississippi River Valley.
Meanwhile an upper level low remains off the coast of California, with broad ridging roughly centered across the Red River remains in place.
(Tonight through Saturday) A cold front was slowly moving through the region early this evening. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Saturday) Another weak, unnoticeable front is currently moving southward through Central Alabama while high pressure builds eastward over the Ohio Valley. The front will reinforce the dry air over the region, and keep temperatures a bit cooler and pleasant tonight across the north, but otherwise, temperatures will continue to trend warmer during the daytime as the 598dam ridge centers over the Central and Southern Plains and causes heights to rise across the Southeast.
422 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure builds across the region today and pushes offshore tonight.
An impressive field of moisture associated with Tropical Cyclone Hilary will arrive by this afternoon which coincides with the onset of rain.
1241 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (This evening through Saturday) The upper level high is expected to shift slightly northeast, centering over Oklahoma and Kansas. The 850 mb thermal ridge will weaken slightly over our area, allowing our temperatures to drop a couple degrees for Saturday.
Although, next shift may want to re- visit the need for another Lake Wind Advisory given the strong approaching winds from the cold front overnight tonight. A cold front will enter the NW zones around midnight tonight and quickly exit the CWA by Saturday morning.
Enjoy this period while you can as hot and moist conditions look to return with a vengeance moving into the short term as ridging aloft over the Central Plains strengthens and becomes rather expansive while gradually drifting east-northeast.
220 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Winds have mostly transitioned to the E/SE already this morning, as the ridge axis is pushed north with the approaching tropical wave from the east.
1243 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Higher heights continue to be centered over the Missouri River Basin with ridging extending aloft across Wyoming. This will block any impacts with the remnants of Hurricane Hilary to the west coast along with another upper level low nearing the Pacific northwest. An upper level low looks to push across north of the CWA flattening the pattern becoming more zonal. This in return will decrease the convergence aloft weakening the high to the southeast. The PFJ will be the biggest influencer on how far south the upper level low will dip and thus, what impacts to the CWA it will have.
The much advertised heat wave will begin today as ridging strengthens and builds north across the Central Plains. ) Heat indices will regardless reach around 110, as the hotter temperatures would be accompanied by lower dewpoints (40s/50s) and the "cooler" temperatures by higher dewpoints (60s to low 70s).
119 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Clear skies continue over the area with upper air analysis showing high pressure centered over the Plains. Surface analysis shows a trough situated just to our west, allowing for breezy south- southwesterly winds into the area. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the lower 60s west to middle 70s east, nearing record warm low temperatures for August 19th. Tomorrow, ridging continues to dominate the forecast so will have mostly clear skies with temperatures climbing into the middle 90s to 100s. Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
(Today and tonight) The large upper high will continue to bring excessive heat over the southern plains Saturday. A weak lee trough will turn modest winds to southwest over western and central Oklahoma this afternoon.
150 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure builds over the weekend. Blocking high pressure pattern surface and aloft into the new week. Enjoy pleasant temperatures today day with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s. Highs this afternoon will range from the lower 80s lowlands, into the upper 60s highest elevations. Another radiational cooling night can be expected tonight under mostly clear skies and calm flow, as the high pressure moves overhead. By Sunday, upper level ridging spills in from the west. High pressure and dry weather starts this period off with a nice blocking high pressure pattern centered over the Midwest.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday/ An Excessive Heat Warning will remain in place all weekend, thanks to the intense heat provided by a dominant ridge centered over the Southern Plains.
238 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 A cold front moved through NE Montana overnight and brought gusty NW winds to the forecast area. Temperatures will be much cooler today with highs mainly in the 70s. Montana will be in SW flow aloft for several days with an upper level high over the central US and an upper trough over the Pacific Coast.
Today will be the last day of lower than normal summertime humidity levels as highs are expected to be slightly warmer than those experienced yesterday, approaching closer to seasonally normal values. Expecting lows tonight to moderate into low to mid 60s as broad upper level ridging influences centered across southern plains slowly begin to push eastward. Upper level ridging influences become much more broader becoming established across much of the central and eastern contiguous U. with its apex moving into central plains placing mid state on its eastern fridges.
(Today) The heat will continue to build across the region today as the upper ridge strengthens and becomes centered overhead, with high temperatures in the upper 90s and 100s for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Have kept the Heat Advisory for northwest Arkansas, though some of the higher dewpoint air could advect into those areas as well with the westerly component to the wind expected this afternoon, increasing heat indices there as well.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) Expecting a fairly quiet weekend with the upper ridge parked over Oklahoma/Missouri. Heights/850 temperatures only decrease a bit, so expect high temperatures a degree or two cooler than yesterday. It will still be quite hot though, especially closer to the ridge out east, so we've opted to issue a Heat Advisory for Scurry and Mitchell Counties this afternoon. Not much change in the upper pattern keeps Sunday's weather nearly identical, although may be a smidge cooler with the ridge nudging a little more eastward. The low/mid levels are quite dry, keeping precipitation chances nill this weekend.
304 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Quiet but much warmer conditions will be seen across the area today and tonight as humidity levels slowly increase.
326 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023 High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley today will move east tonight into Sunday.
Broad, upper ridge centered over the southern Great Plains continues to control the large-scale weather pattern, but with easterly low level flow directing moisture back into the state, warmer and muggier conditions return by late weekend.
1215 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (This evening through Saturday) A 596 dam upper level high centered over Oklahoma will shift slowly to the north tonight and Saturday. Continued subsidence under the high will keep precip at bay while a slight decrease in 1000-500 mb thickness and surface winds a little more backed than today there should be a slight decrease in highs relative today. Both NBM and MOS support that, although the cooler NBM may be a bit optimistic. Beforehand, another quiet and mild night is in store with the dry air underneath the upper ridge.
1213 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 (Tonight through Saturday) A cold front was slowly moving through the region early this evening. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Saturday) Another weak, unnoticeable front is currently moving southward through Central Alabama while high pressure builds eastward over the Ohio Valley. The front will reinforce the dry air over the region, and keep temperatures a bit cooler and pleasant tonight across the north, but otherwise, temperatures will continue to trend warmer during the daytime as the 598dam ridge centers over the Central and Southern Plains and causes heights to rise across the Southeast.
At upper levels, the ridge centered over the Central Plains is continuing to broaden and tilt towards the Ohio Valley. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low-mid 60s.
(Today and tonight) The persistent dome of high pressure continues its dominance over our pattern.