Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak mid-level low pressure over the Florida Peninsula will shift eastwards into the Atlantic waters/Northern Bahamas. A short wave ridge will briefly builds across Florida by late Thursday. Sufficient moisture return around periphery of the atlc ridge wl lead to isold-low sct sct shower chcs, primarily across the Treasure Cst and points inland.
Dew points across the Keys remain in the lower 60s F and cloud cover throughout the day was primarily mid- to- high altitude cirrus as detected by the 00Z sounding, GOES 16 visible imagery and Night Microphysics RGBs. The recent SPC high resolution model run suggests shower development in the Florida Straits tomorrow that could initiate showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Lower Keys.
346 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Through today: We are currently monitoring the fog potential for the lower Pine Belt region where return flow has initiated stratus formation.
Surface analysis showed the expected intense cold front racing down the Colorado high plains, with Akron and Limon both reporting a gust of 61 mph over the past hour. The red flag warning is set to expire in 2 hours at 9 pm, but an extension may be required until humidity climbs above 15% with the cold front. This boundary has been slow to retreat north as a warm front as eventual lee cyclogenesis occurs. The second is across the eastern zones as the cold front eventually comes zipping down with the potential for some precipitation along it. Speaking of, still expecting the strong cold front to move across the region late tonight.
2am surface observations and MSAS analysis depict warm front that retreated south last evening was situated near the border of Iowa and Missouri, to just north of Mt Pleasant, towards Galesburg. South of the warm front, temperatures were in the 60s and low 70s. With the warm front slowly beginning to lift north, instability will be building back into the region with CAPE values rising into the 1000-1500 J/Kg range in southeast IA. This activity will be conditional and largely depend on warm front placement and how warm and unstable we can get prior to storms arriving. The last round of storms will occur with the cold front passage this afternoon, with greatest risk of stronger storms across west central IL and points east.
A low pressure system circulating over eastern Montana and western North Dakota is wrapping residual moisture along the Continental Divide this morning.
With clear skies, radiational fog will be possible especially where the higher low level moisture is located.
Ridging centered over the East Coast of the US will make for a couple of warm and dry days over the Florida Peninsula.
1153 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 Warm and breezy conditions will continue tonight through tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front. Central IL is now solidly in a warm sector behind the warm front that passed through earlier in the day, and a cold front in western IA. Isolated showers and storms developed developed on the nose of the low level jet this morning and have been persistent into this afternoon. The cold front is expected to move through the area Thursday evening and precip will continue as well until the front passes, mainly in the east and southeast.
generating several areas of convection along and ahead of the low and its associated cold and warm fronts. Weak shower activity continues to impact portions of Lower Michigan attm along and north of the warm front while stronger convection fires closer to the low center and cold front. Latest near term models lift the low center northeastward into the Western Great Lakes region today. with the low stalling and occluding over Northern Michigan tonight as the closed upper low becomes vertically stacked with the surface system. High temps will range from the low to mid 40s across Eastern Upper and far NE Lower Michigan to the low to mid 60s across our SW CWA. and into the low to mid 40s across the rest of Northern Lower Michigan. Showery; Milder then Cooler.
152 AM PDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Dry and warmer weather today.
- The cold front completely progresses through the area by early afternoon, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and breezy WNW winds today.
848 PM PDT Wed Apr 19 2023 A departing trough will allow a warm ridge over the Pacific to expand eastward over California over the next few days. As the marine layer is driven back offshore, fair and warmer weather will prevail into the weekend.
High pressure continues to dominate weather conditions over the Peninsula through the period.
06z observations show a cold front which is located from Great Bend to Ashland and behind the front widespread winds sustained at 25-40 mph with occasional gusts to 60 mph. Along with the winds the lowered visibilities at times below a mile are the result of blowing dust. In the upper levels a large trough is moving through the central and northern plains. Winds should calm to around 5-15 mph by sunrise and lows will fall into the 20s in the northwest to the low 40s in the southeast.
(Today and tonight) A potent cold front was currently making its way southward through the Texas Panhandle, stemming from a short wave trough moving onto the central Plains. Despite the cold frontal passage, boundary layer mixing will be very deep. The short wave trough moving over the central Plains will keep the strongest winds aloft well to the northeast of the region today. Despite the winds coming around to the west on the caprock today, temperatures will still be much cooler than observed the past several days owing to the cold front.
(Today and tonight) The cold front has moved into far NW OK early this morning with gusty winds behind the front. The cold front will continue to move SE across the area today. Cooler temperatures expected behind the front today with highs in the 70s across the fa.
High pressure will strengthen off the southeastern seaboard overnight, resulting in gradually strengthening easterly winds, especially for the waters south of St.
252 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 This Morning: As of 245AM this morning, the synoptic cold front was located along a Abilene-McPherson-Pratt line quickly pushing southeastward across the CWA. Short- range CAMs suggest 850mb winds will back fairly quickly over the next couple of hours which may limit the southward extent of the line of storms developing along the cold front. Another potential hazard through the early morning hours will be 50- 60 mph synoptic wind gusts both ahead and behind the cold front. The highest wind gusts will primarily impact Russell and Barton counties, but western portions of Lyons, Reno, Kingman, and Harper counties may also experience a brief period of non-thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 mph between now and 12Z.
Fair weather today with breezy winds and warmer temperatures.
1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 (Tonight) The forecast remains on track as mostly clear skies as a result of high pressure lingering over the southeastern US will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 50s tonight (roughly 25-30 degrees cooler than the temperatures this afternoon were).
607 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 (Today and tonight) A potent cold front was currently making its way southward through the Texas Panhandle, stemming from a short wave trough moving onto the central Plains. Despite the cold frontal passage, boundary layer mixing will be very deep. The short wave trough moving over the central Plains will keep the strongest winds aloft well to the northeast of the region today. Despite the winds coming around to the west on the caprock today, temperatures will still be much cooler than observed the past several days owing to the cold front.
643 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front has moved into far NW OK early this morning with gusty winds behind the front. The cold front will continue to move SE across the area today. Cooler temperatures expected behind the front today with highs in the 70s across the fa.
311 AM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Water vapor imagery shows an upper low sitting across the northern High Plains, nearly stationary at this time. low pressure is sitting near the ND/MT border along an occluded front.
Upper level ridging is building through the weekend, resulting in a gradual warmup. Today's highs will rise to the upper 60s to lower 70s in the interior valleys, the upper 50s to lower 60s at the coast, and the mid 50s to the lower 60s at the higher elevations.
A ragged stratus deck has overspread much of the area, thanks to a moist airmass in the low-levels. Meanwhile, a cold front will drop out of the central Plains and reach the I-20 corridor by noon. Otherwise, winds will quickly shift around to the north, and usher in a slightly cooler airmass. Low temperatures look to drop to the low to mid 50s, which will be quite a bit cooler than the past couple of nights.
Large upper trough located over the western high plains at this time forecast to deepen through the day. Surface reflection is over the central plains with attendant cold front located over northeast OK. Several inches of rain could fall and even though the area has not received much in the way of rain lately, soil moisture remains on the higher side and some flooding can not be ruled out.
530 AM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Northwest flow aloft will prevail today around a large upper level low over the Northern Plains. The short wave trough that brought the rain and snow showers yesterday has shifted off to the east. Subsidence behind this trough has brought mostly clear skies to the area now. Snow showers will develop across the high country Friday and continue into the weekend, as moist west-northwesterly flow aloft remains in place. A cold front is expected to push into the plains Friday evening, with shallow upslope flow behind the front.
445 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 A round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the Midsouth tonight as a cold front pushes into the region.
/EC/ Through today: We are currently monitoring the fog potential for the lower Pine Belt region where return flow has initiated stratus formation. The second round of convection will feature the main cold front and could be a little more robust as stronger deep layer shear, forcing, and instability exist.
606 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 (Today and tonight) Surface ridging and a dry airmass across the region will continue to allow for mostly clear skies for the next 24 hours.
546 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather pattern through Friday.
448 AM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Water vapor imagery shows an upper low sitting across the northern High Plains, nearly stationary at this time. low pressure is sitting near the ND/MT border along an occluded front.
(Today and tonight) Surface ridging and a dry airmass across the region will continue to allow for mostly clear skies for the next 24 hours.
Some minor travel impacts are still possible this afternoon & evening given the low [potential for low visibility from the rate of falling snow. Scattered rain and snow showers will redevelop late Friday morning generated by cyclonic flow aloft in the wrap around region of the cyclone.
727 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 High pressure will provide dry and warm weather today and Friday.
644 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 This Morning: As of 245AM this morning, the synoptic cold front was located along a Abilene-McPherson-Pratt line quickly pushing southeastward across the CWA. Short- range CAMs suggest 850mb winds will back fairly quickly over the next couple of hours which may limit the southward extent of the line of storms developing along the cold front. Another potential hazard through the early morning hours will be 50- 60 mph synoptic wind gusts both ahead and behind the cold front. The highest wind gusts will primarily impact Russell and Barton counties, but western portions of Lyons, Reno, Kingman, and Harper counties may also experience a brief period of non-thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 mph between now and 12Z.
320 AM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Northwest flow aloft will prevail today around a large upper level low over the Northern Plains. The short wave trough that brought the rain and snow showers yesterday has shifted off to the east. Subsidence behind this trough has brought mostly clear skies to the area now. Snow showers will develop across the high country Friday and continue into the weekend, as moist west-northwesterly flow aloft remains in place. A cold front is expected to push into the plains Friday evening, with shallow upslope flow behind the front.
Skies are mostly clear across the island chain, with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s at this early Thursday morning hour.
Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic remains north of the area today, producing an elevated low level easterly breeze over the region. Otherwise, conditions will remain dry today, with skies partly sunny and highs in the low 80s along the coast to low to mid 80s inland.
650 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 A round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the Midsouth tonight as a cold front pushes into the region.
655 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 High pressure with dominate the region through Friday with high temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 each day.
Additionally, our sounding sampled a descent veering profile in the low levels with steep lapse rates of 7. As this low continues to move east conditions will improve as mid level dry air filters in from the west in association with a mid level ridge. From synopsis, high pressure just offshore of the Carolina coast will continue to pivot eastward into the west- central Atlantic through Friday.
/86/ Through today: We are currently monitoring the fog potential for the lower Pine Belt region where return flow has initiated stratus formation. The second round of convection will feature the main cold front and could be a little more robust as stronger deep layer shear, forcing, and instability exist.
241 AM PDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Dry and slightly warmer conditions today but still a few degrees below average for this time of the year.
1033 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather pattern through Friday.
Today through Friday A closed upper level low remains over eastern MT/western ND this morning, but will begin to shift eastward over the Upper Midwest later this evening. These winds will begin to subside through the afternoon as the low makes its eastward trek.
Skies are clear across Arizona this morning as we sit under the eastern side of a large upper-level ridge.
Progressive s/wv trough will approach from the central Rockies tonight and increase mid level cloud cover across the northwest half of Oklahoma. This should keep temperatures from falling into the lower 30s across northwest Oklahoma. Variable cloud cover and cooler temperatures are on tap for Friday along with light wind.
Modest amplification is the upper levels means an upper-level trough is expected to propagate eastward to the north of Florida. Another weak cold front approaches this weekend.
Lookout Pass will need to be watched as road temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer, which should limit impacts to occasional slush but heavier snow rates could overcome this.
1105 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected today into Friday with high pressure.
(The rest of today ) Cold front, currently located near a Miami, Stidham line, will continue to push southeast this afternoon. Main severe threat will likely end by late afternoon as the cold front sweeps southeast of the area.
325 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Discussion/Marine -Strong Thunderstorms Possible This Evening A cold front will be pushing in from the west this evening. Deep layer shear ahead of the front is progged to climb up over 35 knots for much of the CWA with the highest values over northwest locations topping out at around 50 knots.
(This evening through Friday night) High pressure will dominate the upper level pattern tonight.
The continued focus for the better snow accumulations will be on the higher elevations of Prairie Coteau with lighter slushy accumulations elsewhere. Friday: Broad forcing on backside of mid/upper low continues on Friday with forecast soundings showing a favorable profile for weak instability and a resultant snow shower regime. While daytime snow accumulations with the warmer ground temperatures and stronger sun angle should focus on the higher elevations of the Coteau and grassy surfaces, bigger impact could be brief reductions in visibility.
Cool air advection to usher in low temps in the mid to upper 30s northwest, to the low to mid 40s in the southeast. These parameters also to make the most of cooling thermal profiles with some insolation to produce high temps in the low 50s northwest, to the mid 60s southeast.
In addition to this, additional convection will develop along an approaching cold front north of I-30 this afternoon.
Some good news is that the low temperatures through the weekend are trending warmer. Perhaps a freeze threat is a lower concern?! It is still a few days out, so will have to watch guidance over time and see if this warmer trend continues.
308 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 An upper trough will be moving closer to our area through Friday and will bring a round of storms and a cold front to end the week. Relatively weak boundary layer winds with cyclonically curved but small hodographs indicates low level storm relative helicity will be only marginally supportive for low level mesocyclone formation but mesoscale/intrastorm interactions could allow for brief tightening of lower level circulations and so a brief tornado or two can't be totally ruled out. Tonight, lows fall into mostly the lower 60s F with a few areas in eastern Mississippi dropping into the upper 50s F where the surface moisture will have not recovered as well as further west and skies may remain somewhat more clear.
The breezy winds continue tomorrow afternoon due to the exiting of an upper level trough, giving way to a building ridge after.
238 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather pattern through Friday.
1218 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 (Today and tonight) A potent cold front was currently making its way southward through the Texas Panhandle, stemming from a short wave trough moving onto the central Plains. Despite the cold frontal passage, boundary layer mixing will be very deep. The short wave trough moving over the central Plains will keep the strongest winds aloft well to the northeast of the region today. Despite the winds coming around to the west on the caprock today, temperatures will still be much cooler than observed the past several days owing to the cold front.
As an upper ridge slowly builds in from the west a relatively weak, but more seasonal, front is moving onshore this morning. This front will bring gusty winds to the coast and the ridges today, and light to moderate precipitation to the region today, with the highest amounts in the Cascades and western Cascades foothills. The highest precipitation amounts are expected in northern portions of the forecast area with this front. A warm front moving over the area is expected to bring fluctuating VFR and MVFR conditions through the TAF period, especially across the west side. Seas are expected to build this morning as a warm front moves over the area.
As an upper ridge slowly builds in from the west a relatively weak, but more seasonal, front is moving onshore this morning. This front will bring gusty winds to the coast and the ridges today, and light to moderate precipitation to the region today, with the highest amounts in the Cascades and western Cascades foothills. The highest precipitation amounts are expected in northern portions of the forecast area with this front. Seas are expected to build this morning as a warm front moves over the area.
Severe storms possible across the Northwest Hill Country and Current surface/visible satellite data, indicates a cold front moving south across the area early this afternoon. The cold front is near a San Angelo to Brownwood line.
1228 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front has moved into far NW OK early this morning with gusty winds behind the front. The cold front will continue to move SE across the area today. Cooler temperatures expected behind the front today with highs in the 70s across the fa.
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 232 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 A warm front will push northward through the region later tonight, with a very warm day on tap in its wake on Friday.
Low pressure will lift by just to the northwest during this time frame, with southern Wisconsin solidly in the warm sector of this system. With a cold front approaching from the west, thunderstorms are likely, with a potential for hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Decreasing clouds are expected overnight, with a cooler and breezy day on Friday.
This may increase the threat for localized flooding mainly across the low- lying, flood prone, and urban areas. /Issued 345 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023/ /Friday Night Onward/ By Friday night, the cold front will be positioned along the Gulf Coast with high pressure filtering in behind the departed system. Overnight lows will be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than the previous night, dropping into the mid 40s and lower 50s.
1216 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 This Morning: As of 245AM this morning, the synoptic cold front was located along a Abilene-McPherson-Pratt line quickly pushing southeastward across the CWA. Short- range CAMs suggest 850mb winds will back fairly quickly over the next couple of hours which may limit the southward extent of the line of storms developing along the cold front. Another potential hazard through the early morning hours will be 50- 60 mph synoptic wind gusts both ahead and behind the cold front. The highest wind gusts will primarily impact Russell and Barton counties, but western portions of Lyons, Reno, Kingman, and Harper counties may also experience a brief period of non-thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 mph between now and 12Z.
339 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 A strong upper low will continue bringing windy, wintry weather to the forecast area through Friday evening. This afternoon, an upper low that was placed over northwest North Dakota is in the process of expanding and shifting to move over northern Minnesota, where it is expected to strengthen tonight. The general progressed expected, illustrated well in the latest high- res runs, is for this area of precipitation to expand west and sink south through the forecast area as the upper low becomes more established to our east. This weekend, the upper low moves over the Great Lakes region and stalls, leading to cyclonic flow persisting over the forecast area.
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 209 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 A warm front will push northward through the region later tonight, with a very warm day on tap in its wake on Friday.
Temperatures will be in the low 80s to end the work week, then mid to upper 80s this weekend.
126 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather pattern through Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms will move across the Mid-South tonight as a cold front pushes into the region.
209 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Dry high pressure will remain across the region through Friday, with temperatures continuing to be above normal.
1212 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 (The rest of today ) Cold front, currently located near a Miami, Stidham line, will continue to push southeast this afternoon. Main severe threat will likely end by late afternoon as the cold front sweeps southeast of the area.
239 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected today into Friday with high pressure.
After a busy morning and afternoon in the Florida Straits south of the Lower and Middle Keys, showers are now concentrated in the eastern Straits of Florida as they dissipate. Current temperatures in the island chain are in the mid 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. As this high continues to track east and weakens it will lose its synoptic influence over the Keys.