Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The 500mb ridge axis passes overhead tonight and continues east, but southwesterly WAA continues at the surface and boosts tomorrow's daytime high to the mid 50s.
401 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023 Confidence is increasing that above average temperatures and significant rainfall will overspread the Ohio River Valley this weekend as a deep and slow moving trough builds to our west.
230 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2023 A cooling trend will take place over the next few days as a trough moves across the Intermountain West through this weekend.
750 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023 00z surface map indicated sprawling low pressure centered at 988 mb over ND, with high pressure off the southeast US coast. The low level jet will continue through the overnight hours, so we expect the gusty winds to persist, highest over eastern IL under the jet core.
A lull in precipitation is expected between 03Z and 07Z, and then a cold front associated with the low will pivot southeastward into ND to bring down snow showers from Canada with scattered areas of blowing snow from Friday morning through Friday afternoon. The low will then quickly move east, so precipitation will end in the early evening for all of MT on Friday evening.
642 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023 Dry high pressure will continue overnight but by Friday the area of high pressure will shift east of the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area.
With less cloud cover tomorrow and onshore flow strengthening ahead of our next cold front, above-normal temperatures are expected with most of South Texas reaching the lower to mid 80s.
633 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023 Southerly winds between high pressure to the southeast and an approaching system will keep temperatures above normal through the rest of the week with breezy daytime conditions.
A cooling trend will take place over the next few days as a trough moves across the Intermountain West through this weekend.
646 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023 Confidence is increasing that above average temperatures and significant rainfall will overspread the Ohio River Valley this weekend as a deep and slow moving trough builds to our west.
Drier conditions return Friday into the weekend as upper ridging builds in behind the departing system.
A dry trough of low pressure will bring increasing west to northwest winds and cooler temperatures on Friday.
No significant changes were made to the temperature forecast, as we remain on track to see the upper 40s-low 50s north of Orlando and the low to upper 50s elsewhere.
A strong cold front will move through the area tonight into Friday morning bringing periods of snow to much of northern Nevada. Total snowfall will be less than an inch in most valleys with higher mountain totals along with blowing snow as gusty winds accompany the cold front.
As we head into Friday the 700 MB flow weakens and becomes northwesterly as the upper trough shifts east and a weak upper ridge builds in from the west.
908 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023 Southerly winds between high pressure to the southeast and an approaching system will keep temperatures above normal through the rest of the week with breezy daytime conditions.
Showers with small hail will diminish tonight and then a cold airmass will promote frost and freezing temperatures tonight and Friday night.
The majority of snow will remain south of the Park, with lighter accumulations for the lower elevations, and less wind than Thursday. Temperatures will be cooler on Friday behind this system. Highs will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler on Friday compared to today.
127 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 Southerly winds between high pressure to the southeast and an approaching system will keep temperatures above normal through the rest of the week with breezy daytime conditions.
(Today and tonight) Deep upper level trough passing to the north will allow warm and breezy southwest winds across West Central Texas today. As the trough pushes farther east tonight, winds will shift west and then eventually northwest as the cold front arrives into the area.
1013 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023 High pressure is centered over the SE US this evening with just some high clouds across the Mid-South.
1111 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023 00z surface map indicated sprawling low pressure centered at 988 mb over ND, with high pressure off the southeast US coast. The low level jet will continue through the overnight hours, so we expect the gusty winds to persist, highest over eastern IL under the jet core.
Cooler temperatures through the weekend, with high temperatures right around normal.
This in conjunction with some sun will help to boost high temps into the lower to middle 50's. Rain shower development will only occur late this evening and overnight as the low pressure system and cold front approach and deeper moisture moves in ahead of this system.
1047 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023 Update A quiet weather night is expected in a southerly flow regime between high pressure well off to our east and a low in the plains. Winds will get gusty from the south through the morning as the warm front clears the area. Sharp ridging aloft will traverse the region through Friday. The broad trough over the western CONUS will compress in wavelength as embedded synoptic-scale features superpose while the strong jet over the Southwest CONUS drives eastward.
Precipitation will continue across Southwest Idaho this evening with passage of a cold front.
1132 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023 High pressure is centered over the SE US this evening with just some high clouds across the Mid-South.
1133 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023 Aviation A quiet weather night is expected in a southerly flow regime between high pressure well off to our east and a low in the plains. Winds will get gusty from the south through the morning as the warm front clears the area. Sharp ridging aloft will traverse the region through Friday. The broad trough over the western CONUS will compress in wavelength as embedded synoptic-scale features superpose while the strong jet over the Southwest CONUS drives eastward.
Currently - High pressure continues to stretch further eastward into the Atlantic from the southeast. Moderate easterlies likely prevail over the warmer Florida Straits, while cooler nearshore waters are keeping winds weaker and backed northeasterly. Expect overnight lows to range broadly in the upper 60s with dew points holding in the lower 60s. High pressure building eastward off the southeast Atlantic coast will maintain northeast to easterly breezes. Winds will tend quite a bit weaker and backed northeasterly over our the nearshore waters due to the influences of cooler waters.
555 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023 Today through tonight: Increasing warm advection ahead of a significant upper level trough will bring milder and more humid conditions to the forecast area as we go through tonight.
419 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2023 Overview: Cyclonic flow /broad troughing/ aloft will prevail over the central CONUS in this period.
With high winds already occurring, we have gone ahead and moved up the High Wind Warning to account for this. The High Wind Warning also includes the Davis Mountains and there is a wind advisory across the immediately adjacent foothills and plains during the afternoon as well. Winds quickly weaken for all except the higher elevations after sunset Friday. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures remain relatively mild in the upper 30s and 40s across a large portion of the region. The cold front will be traversing the Permian Basin by around sunrise Saturday morning. Much cooler weather carried by a breezy north wind is on tap for areas behind the front during the afternoon.
By tonight, showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will begin to push across the rest of the Mid-South as a low pressure system begins to move in.
527 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023 (Today) Southwest flow aloft develops over the region today as a western US longwave trough slowly shifts eastward. This feature moves NEwrd this afternoon and evening as an associated cold front pushes through the CWA. High temps will vary today, with western locations having the best chance to climb into the low 70s (where clouds may clear earliest) and 60s expected elsewhere.
Rain has been slow to develop overnight and with temperatures lingering in the low to mid 30s, has also been slow to transition to snow. There is also some concern regarding the impact of blowing snow with the near to slightly above freezing temperatures keeping the snow sticky. The snow will taper off from the northwest through the afternoon with the low pressure system moving over the upper Great Lakes. An upper ridge will begin building into the west coast with high in the Great Basin, but northwest flow into eastern Montana will keep temperatures cold through Saturday.
With a ridge axis through the Carolinas to Hudson Bay, Central Alabama is under mid and upper level southwesterly flow.
Temperatures across the island chain have floated around near 70 degrees for the past day or so as dewpoints have recovered back to the lower 60s. However, a few land locations are continuing to report a stubborn northerly component likely due to cooler waters in the Florida Bay. However, breezes may catch more of a southerly component with the high's departure allowing for slightly moister air to advect into our area meaning a stray shower or two can't be ruled out. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday with highs reaching up in the upper 70s today and lower 80s by this weekend.
A strong low- level southerly jet ahead of an approaching trough will allow for increased instability across mainly northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and extreme northwest Louisiana late this afternoon into this evening. Conditions to further deteriorate on Saturday as an upper-trough digs southeast across the Southern Plains and pushes a cold front across the region.
Pressure gradient continues to tighten as a mid-level trough pushes east through the Central Plains throughout the day. However, with the freezing levels being much lower in December, it wouldn't take much lift for small hail to form in convective updrafts. Lows will be in the upper 30s for western Missouri to the mid 40s for southeastern Missouri as the cold front pushes through. Saturday's high temperatures will range from the upper 40s west of the plateau to the mid 50s east of the plateau as that cold front continues to push through.
525 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023 (Today and tonight) Deep upper level trough passing to the north will allow warm and breezy southwest winds across West Central Texas today. As the trough pushes farther east tonight, winds will shift west and then eventually northwest as the cold front arrives into the area.
A closed low over North Dakota has pushed a weak cold front into the area; this front's progression has slowed and it currently resides along a St. Boundary layer moisture remains high ahead of the front with dewpoints in the upper 40s to near 50 which, coupled with light winds in the trough axis, could (50%) support some patchy fog this morning.
This in conjunction with some sun will help to boost high temps into the lower to middle 50's. Rain shower development will only occur late this evening and overnight as the low pressure system and cold front approach and deeper moisture moves in ahead of this system. The relatively best chc for showers will come from roughly 10Z-17Z Saturday along and just ahead of the cold front as suggested by the 00Z HREF.
451 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 Gusty southerly winds ahead of an approaching low pressure system will aid temperatures in warming 10 to 15 degrees above normal today. Moisture will increase with showers developing late tonight and becoming widespread Saturday ahead of a cold front.
446 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2023 Overview: Cyclonic flow /broad troughing/ aloft will prevail over the central CONUS in this period.
Considerable instability under an upper trough will bring areas of snow showers throughout today. Brief ridging on Saturday will increase the potential for morning fog in the valleys.
Pretty quiet across the area early this morning, but we are watching a couple light precipitation chances tonight and Saturday as larger scale upper level troughing pushes in.
(Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery shows the now closed 500 mb upper level low responsible for our showers and thunderstorms centered over northern New Mexico. This compact upper level low has turned out to posses fairly potent dynamic forcing. Clearing skies in the South Plains and the southwest Rolling Plains will be accompanied by a period of elevated westerly winds this afternoon at sustained speeds around 20-25 knots before a cold front moves through the forecast area this afternoon and evening. West Texas Mesonet station data shows the cold front sitting approximately along a line from Muleshoe to Memphis and will continue to push south this afternoon and evening resulting in overnight lows in the 20s and 30s, about 10 degrees cooler than last night.
and Saturday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low pressure over North Dakota and high pressure over the far southeast United States. Parts of central and east-central WI should see more in the way of sunshine, and warmer temps. Highs will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s. Compared to 24 hours ago, models have trended weaker and further east with the strength and track of the cyclone.
A trough will bring increasing west to northwest winds and cold temperatures today.
The highest wind speeds are expected for areas generally along and north of US Highway-70 and along and west of I-27 with winds quickly diminishing in speed after sunset. Lows elsewhere will be in the 30s and possibly the low 40s in the southeast Rolling Plains.
421 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 (Today through Saturday) The mid-level ridge over the eastern CONUS will continue to move eastward over the coming 12 to 24 hours. Southerly flow on the backside of the high will help to bring Gulf moisture back into the area ahead of a Midwest digging trough. This dynamic support combined with a long cold front will initiate showers and thunderstorms across the region through the weekend (won't see any action until at very late Friday night to very early Saturday morning). Temperatures will be on the uptrend with highs today in the mid to low 60s and highs tomorrow reaching into the low 70s. A similar trend can be expected with the lows with the coldest temperatures being in the 30s this morning and 40s to 50s tomorrow morning.
- Snowfall timing ranges from late this afternoon (Mobridge area) to overnight (Sisseton hills) with a duration of about 6-8 hours.
By tonight an upper trof will deepen and surge southward as it crosses the High Plains, helping to push a cold front southward through Nebraska. As the upper trof moves east of the region early this weekend, ensemble guidance is in agreement depicting a gradual transition in the upper level pattern from low amplitude northwest flow aloft to a split flow regime with a strong ridge over the northern Plains and a closed low over the southwestern US.
(Today) Southwest flow aloft develops over the region today as a western US longwave trough slowly shifts eastward. This feature moves NEwrd this afternoon and evening as an associated cold front pushes through the CWA. High temps will vary today, with western locations having the best chance to climb into the low 70s (where clouds may clear earliest) and 60s expected elsewhere.
Upper level ridging brought clearing skies, which has allowed fog to develop in mountain basins and in portions of the Valley. Dry conditions return today and continue into the weekend as the upper ridging continues to build in behind the departing system.
651 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 Gusty southerly winds ahead of an approaching low pressure system will aid temperatures in warming 10 to 15 degrees above normal today. Moisture will increase with showers developing late tonight and becoming widespread Saturday ahead of a cold front.
- Strong northwest winds on Saturday with cold frontal passage.
* Windy and cooler for Saturday. A strong jet on the back side of the developing western conus upper trof will continue to amplify the said trof as it moves from the Rockies across the Plains thru Saturday. Modest lift within the trailing mid-level baroclinic zone tonight may promote isolated light precip over central Kansas, though drying within the lower levels should preclude measurable precip so will keep the forecast dry up along the I-70 corridor.
Much cooler Today across the entire area, under clouds and a weaker northerly surface wind field. Precipitation chances ramp up very late this afternoon, as an upper jet enters the southern Rockies and a Pacific High pressure sourced colder airmass spreads into the west, bringing rain and then snow along the KS/Colorado line later Tonight. The odds of any appreciable precipitation are quite low however as the high resolution probability matched - means relegates the QPF accumulations overnight mainly west of U. Saturdayâs highs based on the NBM forecast at this time cuts the highs just about 10 degrees F from Fridayâs highs, so generally mid 40s everywhere with a cooler bias in the far west, and a slightly warmer bias toward Medicine Lodge (near 50F).
Dry weather are expected over the region through Saturday as a high pressure build into the West Coast.
Upper trough in W Gulf keeping fast and moist WSW flow aloft while weak high pressure centered along the SC/GA coast slowly slides into the W Atlantic today. A strong U/L disturbance and associated cold front will push across the southeast U.
(Today through Saturday) The mid-level ridge over the eastern CONUS will continue to move eastward over the coming 12 to 24 hours. Southerly flow on the backside of the high will help to bring Gulf moisture back into the area ahead of a Midwest digging trough. This dynamic support combined with a long cold front will initiate showers and thunderstorms across the region through the weekend (won't see any action until at very late Friday night to very early Saturday morning). Temperatures will be on the uptrend with highs today in the mid to low 60s and highs tomorrow reaching into the low 70s. A similar trend can be expected with the lows with the coldest temperatures being in the 30s this morning and 40s to 50s tomorrow morning.
425 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023 Today through tonight: Increasing warm advection ahead of a significant upper level trough will bring milder and more humid conditions to the forecast area as we go through tonight.
909 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 Gusty southerly winds ahead of an approaching low pressure system will aid temperatures in warming 10 to 15 degrees above normal today. Moisture will increase with showers developing late tonight and becoming widespread Saturday ahead of a cold front.
It's going to be the last day like this for awhile, because showers will begin developing later tonight and certainly on Saturday as a strong cold front begins to impact the mid state. In addition to widespread showers, some storms are also possible given modest instability and the strength of the cold front.
There could even be pockets of light rain/drizzle, especially in the higher terrain in SE OK and NW AR, where there's orographic lifting occurring. Clouds are forecast to gradually clear west-to-east by early-mid afternoon, in the vicinity of a dryline, ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. For far eastern OK and northwest AR, where cloud cover will remain nearly overcast, temperatures will only warm into the low-mid 60s this afternoon.
This is owed to the eastward movement of the low pressure system that brought rain and snow to the area over the last few days. A ridging pattern is in the process of replacing it, bringing about the drier and sunnier conditions this afternoon. This particular pattern, with high pressure to the northwest and a low to the southeast, is also bringing breezy northerly winds to the Valley today. As the ridge begins to dominate the area, conditions will continue to dry out and temperatures will warm slightly.
1111 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023 Strong WAA is underway across Middle Tennessee this morning with gusty south winds up to 25 mph bringing in higher low level moisture and warmer temperatures. Current temps are already well into the 50s to around 60, and nudged up highs for this afternoon to the low to mid 60s for most of the area and upper 50s to around 60 on the Plateau. It's going to be the last day like this for awhile, because showers will begin developing later tonight and certainly on Saturday as a strong cold front begins to impact the mid state. In addition to widespread showers, some storms are also possible given modest instability and the strength of the cold front.
(This evening through Saturday) An upper level trough will swing across the Great Plains overnight, sending a cold front through West Central Texas Saturday morning. Cooler temperatures along with gusty north to northwest winds will filter into the region behind the front. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s.
(Through Tonight) The main concern in the near term is the continued potential for a narrow line of thunderstorms to develop along a cold front early to mid evening in far eastern Oklahoma and shift eastward through late evening. The cold front is currently positioned just west of the forecast area and should begin to move into areas northwest of Tulsa around 4 pm given observations and short term model solutions.
Overnight, a dynamic low pressure system will propagate northeastward and latch on to a larger trough currently towards our northwest. As this low traverses northeastward, rain will begin overnight heading into the morning. Anticipate cooler temperatures, with higher temperatures remaining near the upper 40s by the lakeshore.
1241 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 Gusty southerly winds ahead of an approaching low pressure system will aid temperatures in warming 10 to 15 degrees above normal today. Moisture will increase with showers developing late tonight and becoming widespread Saturday ahead of a cold front.
* Turning much cooler and windy late tonight through Saturday.
This area of precipitation is in association with the main upper trough currently seen on water vapor imagery over the northern High Plains. Winds will veer through the period as low pressure over northern Minnesota moves east and colder air works into the area. The main upper trough will push across the area from west to east on Saturday, bringing a band of mainly light snow with it as it does so. TAF reflects best guess at the timing of improvement in ceilings this afternoon and then the lowering of ceilings and visibilities Saturday.
High pressure is building in from the west. Have canceled the winter weather advisories for the Lower Snake plain, Raft River, and the Southern Hills/Albion Mtns. Have also canceled the wind advisory over the Lower Snake Plain and the Marsh/Albion Highlands. Have kept the wind advisory for the Eastern Magic valley, Raft River, and the Southern Hills/Albion mountains until 5 pm, as winds continue to be elevated with high pressure building in. Expect high pressure to continue to build in overnight. Look for patchy freezing fog tomorrow, Saturday, morning. Expect mostly clear skies early on Saturday as well as overall dry conditions with cooler than normal temperatures.
250 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 Broad upper trough currently over the C U.
1015 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2023 Overview: Cyclonic flow /broad troughing/ aloft will prevail over the central CONUS in this period.
- Snowfall timing ranges from late this afternoon (Mobridge area) to overnight (Sisseton hills) with a duration of about 6-8 hours. Showers extend to just about the ND/SD state line north of Mobridge, otherwise winds are the main story this morning.
/DC/ Today through tonight: Increasing warm advection ahead of a significant upper level trough will bring milder and more humid conditions to the forecast area as we go through tonight.
Winds will shift to the NW/N with cooler air moving in behind the front.