Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Showers and thunderstorms will diminish overnight, while a Canadian cold front moves southward into North Central MT on Tuesday morning.
-----BMickelson Previous discussion: High pressure over the Northern Plains sandwiched between two upper low systems will keep temperatures above normal for the next couple of days.
Anderson (Issued 232 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023) Tonight through Tuesday night: A cold front will drop southward through the forecast area tonight, stalling just southwest of Wisconsin on Tuesday. Low temps will return to near normal values Tue night behind the cold front.
A moisture starved cold front and wind shift will push across Southeast Michigan between 09-18Z Tuesday. Longwave trough amplification underway over the Northeast helps retain a milder airmass for the Great Lakes through much of the week. Meager mid-level moisture works southward through the evening hours ahead of a dry backdoor cold front which veers winds more northerly.
629 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Broad upper level weakness remains in place across East Texas and much of the upper Gulf coast while ridging establishes across West Texas near El Paso. The upper level pattern from today looks to nudge very slightly eastward into and through Tuesday where the broad weakness across East Texas today trends closer to Louisiana/Mississippi and the center of the ridge to our west is also slightly closer compared with today as well.
Otherwise, a fairly typical early June night with lows dropping to the low to mid 60s.
929 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Seasonably cooler and drier air will be here for much of the upcoming week. generally ranging from the low to middle 50s. Otherwise, central PA will be on the western periphery of the sphere of influence of an upper low across New England during this time.
714 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 An upper level low will keep temperatures cool over much of the week with some isolated showers developing each afternoon. An Upper level low sits to our East with a cold front dropping in from the North this evening. Despite this, the smoke is expected to be thick enough to block solar radiation keeping temperatures a bit cooler than expected today.
559 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 (The rest of this afternoon and Tonight) Ongoing, widely scattered storms will last through the afternoon hours, mainly across southeast Oklahoma near a weak mid level trough axis sliding across north Texas. Isolated to scattered storms will also be likely within the higher terrain regions of northwest Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma as daytime heating reaches its peak.
414 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Highlights: 1) Near to just above seasonal temperatures 2) Afternoon chances for showers and storms each day Challenges: Precipitation chances and respective coverage Changes: Tweaked precipitation chances High pressure is anticipated to stay over the Plains with troughs over both east and west coastal areas of the CONUS. The trough over the east coast deepens and tracks west to the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Valley by mid to late week. Highlights: 1) Near seasonal normal temperatures 2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms Changes: Precipitation chances The eastern system continues to move west while the high pressure system tries to hold on but pushes west.
931 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Seasonably warm conditions will persist early this week before cooler air builds in for midweek and beyond.
505 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Main weather story over the next several days will be the gradually increasing thunderstorm coverage late this week into early next as dominant upper ridge meanders across the central CONUS.
643 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Seasonably cooler and drier air will be here for much of the upcoming week. Highs today will range from the low to mid 70s across the Central and NW two thirds of the CWA, while communities throughout the Susq Valley will likely experience highs in the upper 70s. Min temps tonight will generally be in the low to mid 50s. Behind the departing surface cold front on Tuesday, steepening low-level lapse rates, plenty of dry air aloft to tap, and sinking motion should all lead to rapid surface RH reductions and wind gusts of 15-25 mph in the afternoon. Otherwise, central PA will be on the western periphery of the sphere of influence of an upper low across New England.
We will monitor the cold front that is draped across the region. Indications are there for the cold front to continue to shift through the region overnight, but the possibility of it stalling out is there. There are also some thunderstorms in far northern Minnesota associated with an incoming backdoor cold front. Even though we are under a ridge, steep lapse rates and plenty of instability and moisture create the chances for showers and thunderstorms through mid-week.
Temperatures could drop to the mid 60s over the interior and the low to mid 70s along metro and coastal areas tonight. Locally, the upper low flow today is fairly zonal and there is dry air in place over the mid levels today, which was shown nicely by the 12Z MFL sounding. Afternoon/early evening convection is expected again, with the highest PoPs generally over the interior and SW FL.
753 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 (Through Tuesday) As we head into Tuesday, the low to mid-level flow will begin to veer around to the south as high pressure moves to the east. This is where the highest coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected.
727 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Cooler and dry conditions continue with northerly flow. A crossing cold front on Tuesday could develop isolated showers in the afternoon, primarily east and south of Pittsburgh. Upper low pressure, currently east of Cape Cod, will shift towards Newfoundland on Tuesday. A small exception can be made for the eastern forecast area where the ridges may provide some lift for a few showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.
929 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 High pressure builds into the region as low pressure meanders off the New England coast. A cold front will drop southward Tuesday, crossing the area Tuesday night. High pressure gradually builds in through the end of the week as another low spirals off the New England Coast. Low pressure will remain off the coast of Maine while high pressure remains over the central CONUS.
327 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 TODAY: Little change is expected for today's forecast as omega blocking persists across the CONUS with anomalously stout upper ridging tilts into the Northern Plains. Despite low coverage due to weak forcing aloft, a higher chance of rain (and a bit greater coverage) resides in southwest Minnesota where a slightly less stable (500-1000 J/kg CAPE) airmass sets up (vs more stable with greater subsidence under the upper ridge axis further west). Perhaps slightly warmer than yesterday, especially in central SD under stronger influence of upper ridging subsidence. Further west, dry conditions prevail under strong ridging aloft. WEDNESDAY: The atmospheric pattern (and suppressive ridging aloft) regresses westward a bit as a jet max digs another wave in to our east and the aforementioned boundary shifts a bit further west.
(Today through Wednesday) Weak high pressure will briefly set up over the western Atlantic today resulting in a temporarily shift to a low-lvl E-SErly regime. Overnight into Wednesday, the low-lvl will veer more SWrly as the high shifts eastward, which will help advect deeper subtropical moisture (PWATs up to 1. High temperatures today will range from the mid 80s near the east coast to the upper 80s on the west coast, while temperatures will warm to around 90 on the east coast on Wednesday as the low-lvl winds veer.
1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Broad upper level weakness remains in place across East Texas and much of the upper Gulf coast while ridging establishes across West Texas near El Paso. The upper level pattern from today looks to nudge very slightly eastward into and through Tuesday where the broad weakness across East Texas today trends closer to Louisiana/Mississippi and the center of the ridge to our west is also slightly closer compared with today as well.
Storms pop up and down fairly quickly due to the low shear, although a couple of storms have likely had some hail. A weak backdoor cold front will try to push from the northeast Tuesday night, but may not really make a substantial push until Wednesday. To the west of the front, it will still be hot Wednesday with highs in the lower 90s.
255 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Cooler and dry conditions continue with northerly flow. A crossing cold front on Tuesday could develop isolated showers in the afternoon, primarily east and south of Pittsburgh. Continued high pressure will support light winds and mostly clear skies through dawn. The cooler conditions due to the northerly flow and lower dew points will allow for low temperatures right around the seasonal normal through dawn. Upper low pressure, currently east of Cape Cod, will shift towards Newfoundland during the day. A small exception can be made for the eastern forecast area where the ridges may provide some lift for a possible shower or thunderstorms. Thus have left pops out but a pop up may occur on the west side of the Laurel Ridges during the afternoon.
With the high almost directly overhead, there looks to be little in the way of thunderstorm chances tonight. In the upper levels, an amplified ridge persists over the region while low pressure circulations rotate over the Pacific Northwest, southern Californian coast, and Great Lakes through New England region. At the surface, modest pressure falls have turned winds to the south over western North Dakota, while eastern portions of the state are seeing variable light winds under the center of the high. The pattern repeats itself again on Tuesday with the high parked overhead.
Otherwise, there isn't much change in the environment nor expectations for the near term forecast as weak upper level troughing and a moist and unstable airmass are expected to support isolated to scattered diurnally driven thunderstorm activity.
Coverage may be a bit less than yesterday though, especially in eastern counties where the retrograding ridge may be able to cap the atmosphere somewhat. As for the chance of stronger thunderstorms, the best chance would be across western Wyoming, which will be closer to the never ending upper level low and bringing more shear. The best coverage will again be in the eastern facing slopes, with decreasing coverage further east with less instability and higher heights from the closer proximity to the ridge.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Northern Michigan remains squarely centered between stout central Noam mid/upper level ridging and still maturing northeast Noam troughing. High pressure will continue to build south into the area through tonight. Maturing north flow, at times a bit gusty, will result in a slightly cooler airmass, with high temperatures ranging through the 70s.
Low temperatures Tuesday night will moderate back to seasonable readings in the lower 60s. By late Tuesday night into Wednesday, a weak cold front will sag south into our region as an upper level trof moves over the lower Ohio Valley. Lows Wednesday night will cool to below normal readings, from the middle 50s north to the lower 60s southwest.
Showers and thunderstorms will diminish overnight, while a Canadian cold front moves southward into North Central MT on Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be cooler over North Central MT on Tuesday, but warm air returns on Wednesday. Late tonight, a Canadian cold front will move southward into North Central MT, resulting in light showers and a wind shift to the north over North Central MT.
303 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 * Near surface smoke gets pushed south of the area * Low rain chances today, better chances tonight Upper energy rotating around an upper low across the northeastern USA will interact with a surface cold front to bring rain chances to central Indiana, mainly overnight tonight. Very dry conditions continue this morning, with dewpoints in the lower to middle 40s most areas. The synoptic scale pattern remains characterized by a broad amplifying low over the northeastern United States, with ridging centered over the northern plains. Wednesday morning could see some light rain as the cool front exits to the SW, leaving behind cooler and drier air through the end of the week.
327 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A mid to upper level ridge will continue to persist over the Plains, causing a high pressure to stay over the Northern Plains over the next couple of days. There is also a trough over both the east and west coasts. The trough over the east coast will deepen and track west over the Great Lakes mid to late week. With a weak low pressure system persisting over northern Oklahoma, the chances for showers and storms look to stick around this afternoon through the evening, especially across south central and southeast Kansas but cannot rule out a storm across central Kansas.
On Wednesday, upper-level ridge stretching across the Four Corners region into Mexico to shift east allowing for weak northwest flow aloft to increase across the ArkLaTex. Increased subsidence aloft will also allow for high temperatures to begin to creep upwards into the lower 90s across the I-30 corridor with the remainder of the ArkLaTex around 90 degrees.
1209 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 High pressure will prevail for the first half of this week. Tuesday and Wednesday: Aloft an anomalously deep trough will persist over the eastern CONUS, extending southward into the southeastern states. Northwesterly flow in the lower to mid levels will result in some slight downsloping, allowing temperatures to reach into the low 90s far inland both days. With warmer temperatures instability will increase as the afternoon progresses.
W/SW flow aloft remains over the region with an area of high pressure over the SE U. Flow aloft remains more or less the same through the period while at the surface, high pressure retreats into the W Atlantic as a frontal boundary drops into the SE U. Afternoon highs run in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the rest of the week, with the sea breeze limiting immediate coastal areas to a few degrees cooler, with hints of warming into the mid 90s during the weekend for central and southern interior locations along with triple-digit heat indices. Weak high pressure remains over the Gulf waters over the next day or so with easterly winds before another front approaches the northern Gulf mid week with winds shifting to westerly across the waters through the end of the week.
An upper level trough will remain over CA, bringing southeast flow aloft. Southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon will be in a favorable area, with the low pressure over CA, for shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoons both days.
1000 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Main weather story over the next several days will be the gradually increasing thunderstorm coverage late this week into early next as dominant upper ridge meanders across the central CONUS.
333 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A broad upper level low will continue to be in place across Atlantic Canada bringing clouds and a few showers at times through most of the week.
Look for gusty southwest winds through the coming week with cooler temperatures starting Tuesday. A low pressure system lingering along the southern California Coast has been the primary driver of cooler than normal temperatures, available moisture, and breezy afternoon conditions. As this trough slowly progresses eastward toward Arizona, we'll begin to see drier air, increased southwest winds, and cooler daytime highs.
Going into Wednesday, generally clear skies are expected with northeasterly winds keeping temperatures cooler. Expect highs in the upper 70s across much of the area, with cooler temperatures near the lake.
900 PM PDT Mon Jun 5 2023 A nearly stationary trough over California will keep a deep marine layer in place through Wednesday, deep enough for areas of morning light rain or drizzle west of the mountains. The skies over the higher mountains and deserts will be generally clear.
(Today through Wednesday) Weak upper level ridging to our west, centered over far west Texas and New Mexico, will slowly shift southeast through the short term period. Forecast coverage of these showers and storms is in the 20- 30% range, down a bit from the past couple of days due to the slight southeastward shifting of the upper level ridge mentioned above. As the aforementioned ridging continues to slowly shift southeast on Wednesday, areal coverage of showers and storms will continue to decrease.
1057 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Given upper trough and upper vorticity disturbances rotating around it modulating things, unsettled pattern to continue through tomorrow with typical diurnal cycle of thunderstorm development over land during the day. Tomorrow night will start to transition to a drier but hotter pattern with height rises and an upper ridge building to the west. with the trough shifting east.
(Today and tonight) Shower and thunderstorm chances decrease today in response to further weakening and eastward shift of a weak upper level trough that has been located from the eastern Panhandle to central Texas the last couple of days. Thunderstorms will likely develop on the higher terrain of northeastern New Mexico and southward down the Pecos river valley. With a slight shift eastward of the upper ridge to our west and more of a southeasterly low level fetch across the southern High Plains, there is a better chance of this convection being directed into the western sections of the Panhandle and South Plains by late evening, and possibly further into the forecast area before dissipating late tonight.
117 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 An upper level low will keep temperatures cool over much of the week with some isolated showers developing each afternoon. An Upper level low sits to our East with a cold front dropping in from the North this evening. Despite this, the smoke is expected to be thick enough to block solar radiation keeping temperatures a bit cooler than expected today. An upper level low will be anchored over the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday morning.
322 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 An omega blocking pattern remains in place through the period with southerly flow continuing at the surface. The moistest air, with dewpoints in the low 60s, will remain in the James River Valley up through the Turtle Mountains and east. Drier conditions with dewpoints dropping into the low to mid 50s are expected for most of western through central North Dakota this afternoon. The omega blocking pattern weakens through the remainder of the workweek.
(Today through Wednesday) Looking at the weather pattern across the area, there is a trough in place to our north, with high pressure across the south. By this afternoon the trough will edge to the south, but generally still be positioned across northern Alabama, with high pressure still in control across the south. However, with the position of the high pressure, southerly flow should increase across the south during the afternoon. This front will push the trough to our south and east during the day as high pressure will begin to diminish. Looks like the best moisture convergence will be across the southern half, associated with the trough as it moves through.
1222 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 High pressure east of Florida will keep the area fairly rain- free until a cold front arrives Wednesday night.
344 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Dry cold front moves southward this morning through northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania today. High pressure returns Tuesday night and will persist through the first half of the weekend. Yet another dry cold front trudges southward this early morning, and will be a slow tracking feature that will take until around 18-20Z to completely clear the CWA. High pressure builds in tonight in a resumption of northerly surface flow across the CWA. Trailing upper trough axis comes through tonight, again, dry, as the cyclonic northerly flow aloft continues. This is mostly a mid/upper level phenomenon, however they daytime mixing of the boundary and the natural decent of the air from the lower levels to the surface with the weak cold front could mix this smoke downward towards the surface.
1219 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) A blocking ridge will continue over much of North America today and tomorrow with West Texas placed underneath the riding portion of the block. A short wave ridge will begin building over the area today and shifting more overhead on Tuesday. A very weak trough axis around 700mb is still overhead but remains unclear on what effect this will have on convective chances. There is possibly a hint at a weak MCV on satellite imagery over the Big Country within this trough axis. There may be less coverage on Tuesday with the upper short wave ridge shifting more overhead.
Tuesday and Wednesday, an upper ridge remains over Manitoba, with high pressure over the Dakotas. Weak flow will be in place over the High Plains.
(Today through Wednesday) Upper pattern this morning shows upper troughing off the New England coast and along the Pacific Coast. Upper ridging was noted over Manitoba and the Dakotas, with weak troughing along the Louisiana coast. Forecast convective temperatures are in the mid 80s for much of the area today, and a few degrees warmer on Wednesday. Afternoon soundings showing a dry adiabatic profile in the lowest layers, but not quite as deep as yesterday, perhaps up to 800 mb.
1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Summary: Cooler temperatures but still mainly dry pattern will continue for the rest of the week. Storms are starting to form over north central Minnesota where instability is greatest behind a slow moving cold front and are expected to move south through this afternoon and evening.
235 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Persistent upper level pattern will stay in place over the region, with an upper ridge centered over the High Plains, and an upper low situated over southern California. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop first over the higher terrain, moving off onto the lower elevations into the evening. Regardless, showers and thunderstorms look to develop over the higher terrain during the afternoon, with the greatest coverage over locations that are aided by the upslope winds.
Initially, convection will form over the higher terrain before spreading east and possibly clustering. Shear will be slightly better than today as will instability given warmer temperatures and high moisture levels.
Without very much cloud cover and lighter winds overnight lows should mostly be in the lower to mid 60s. Tuesday will see little change in the overall pattern as high pressure aloft remains in control and diurnally driven showers and storms are again expected. Tuesday night into Wednesday night an upper level jet drops south through the Great Lakes and pushes the upper level ridge a bit farther to the west. CAPE and shear values are still on the lower side so severe weather is not expected but a little additional coverage will be possible.
An upper low spins off the New England coast while another upper low sits over southern California. Conditions across the CWA are mostly clear (our only radar returns being caused by our moth friends) with temperatures in the mid 60s and light, southerly winds Conditions will be drier today as we sit under the upper level high and lack of instability will preclude any chances for even isolated storms, with the exception of the Black Hills where orographic influences may result in enough lift to produce perhaps a stray shower or storm in the afternoon and evening hours. Ensemble guidance in fairly good agreement that the ridge will become squeezed between the deepening trough over the eastern CONUS and the upper low in the western US.