Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We begin the work week with a familiar theme: a trough sitting to our north and an expansive heat dome off to our west across Texas. The influence of the trough increases in the boundary layer from late Monday as westerly H9 winds increase to 10-20 KT.
335 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 A slow moving low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes will lead to occasional showers and a chance for thunderstorms today through Tuesday. Upper level low pressure will shift slowly east across lower Michigan through this afternoon. Mid level energy rotating around the low will combine with low level covergent flow across the region to produce showers today. The upper level low will weaken as it moves slowly east across the lower Great Lakes tonight through Tuesday. Lows tonight will be mostly in the lower 60s with highs on Tuesday in the 70s.
(Today and tonight) Weak surface ridging continued over the region early this morning north of a diffuse stationary front near the I-20 corridor. As a mid- level high draws closer from northern Chihuahua today, winds at 700mb will back SW and advect even warmer temps across much of the South Plains to the tune of 17-19C by early this evening.
The water vapor showed a large trough of low pressure off the California Coast with a very dry slot moving across southern California, the Arizona Strip, and into southeastern Utah. With overnight moisture recovery expected to be a bit higher, lows will be slightly warmer than we have seen the last few nights (mostly due to the influx of dry air). With the westward expansion of the ridge and incoming trough, a tightening gradient will reside over the region bringing along slightly stronger southwest winds, gusting to 50 mph.
1148 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 We still have a few stubborn showers lingering northwest MN, but trends are on track with this activity rapidly decreasing in covearge along with the lower stratus sliding south and southeast with the arrival of drier BL air.
204 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Upper level low pressure will provide humid, unsettled conditions with daily rounds of showers thunderstorms through the first half of the week, along with a trend towards below- normal temperature. For Monday, the approaching upper low will provide another round of showers and thunderstorms beginning by midday with surface heating. The main severe chance will lie to our east in the better instability and shear, and also in better lift as a trough axis crosses the ridges. Still, a strong storm or two will be possible in the southeast ridges during the afternoon before that threat ends.
232 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 As the upper level ridge builds over the Plains, the weather should remain dry for the most part and start to warm up.
The upper level high is currently centered over the northern Chihuahua state in northern Mexico. This high will slowly shift northeast over the Big Bend region on Monday. A weak cold front is moving south into northwest Texas this afternoon, and should move as far south as the Big Country this evening before stalling north of I-20. At this time, thinking is that the temperatures in the northern Big Country will be a few degrees cooler overnight and Monday. Despite the center of the upper high being closer to our area Monday, have a non-zero possibility for isolated thunderstorm development in the late afternoon/early evening (as indicated by one of the other CAMs), for the Concho Valley and western parts of the Big Country, into northeastern Crockett and northern Schleicher Counties.
1037 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 (This evening through Monday) A cold front, that has brought a drier and more comfortable air mass to northern Oklahoma has slowed this afternoon.
301 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 - Increasing chances showers/T-storms This Afternoon - Not as Warm Today GOES-16 H20 vapor imagery was showing an upper low spinning over western lower Michigan. Disturbances will move around the base of the trough with cyclonic flow, lingering moisture and good low level lapse rates expected to trigger mainly afternoon and evening convection with the best chances of northeastern sections, closer to the upper low. It will be notable as compared to temperatures yesterday ahead of the cold front. As the upper low shifts into southwestern Ontario, an upper ridge will inch closer to the central Indiana. With the low starting to move further away and darkness commencing, should see some clearing tonight. Thus, overnight lows will only bottom out in the lower 60s.
As the large circulation around the stacked upper level low over western WI continues to push off to the east, this will gradually bring to an end the rain chances across the WFO MPX coverage area from west to east tonight into Monday. Rain chances will diminish altogether by late Monday afternoon as high pressure over the Northern Plains shifts into the Upper Midwest, allowing for a drying out period Monday night through Tuesday evening.
(Today through Tuesday) RAP analysis at 06Z placed the center of the 597 dm H5 ridge to the south of El Paso.
With surface ridging influences taking hold, ushering in somewhat of a cooler airmass to our north across mid state region, especially as tonight into Tuesday progresses, dry conditions will prevail. These dry conditions will be aided by building dry northwesterly flow aloft becoming increasingly prevalent as apex of upper level ridging influences push eastward into central MS River Valley Region by late Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures today will be a few degrees cooler than values experienced yesterday, generally ranging upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region.
(Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Excessive Heat Warning in effect through this evening across coastal and inland San Patricio southward through Kleberg county - Heat Advisory today elsewhere across South Texas except the island I know the forecast sounds like a broken record lately but the synoptic pattern remains unchanged with the mid-level ridge meandering across Texas today and the center of the ridge moving over South Texas tonight before continuing eastward through the long- term period.
(The rest of tonight) A cold front continues to settle south across the area and currently extends from near Poteau to south of Mcalester.
256 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Upper level ridging will build into the area today, bringing mostly dry conditions with high temperatures warming into the upper 70s, to the mid 80s.
150 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances rise with cold frontal passage today.
126 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 High pressure will prevail tonight.
Guidance continues to show a small amount of moisture moving up from New Mexico as it rotates around high pressure centered over Texas. Gusty winds will linger through midnight Tuesday across the Four Corners and into the higher elevations of the San Juans, before they, too, finally die down.
Stacked low pressure over Michigan will spin an area of increased atmospheric moisture southeastward through the Midwest and Ohio Valley today. An upper wave over Minnesota early this morning will dive southeast on the backside of the low and spark scattered showers this afternoon as convective temperatures around 80 are surpassed. It will be more comfortable this afternoon compared to yesterday, with highs mostly in the middle 80s and dew points in the lower and middle 60s. Tonight the low to our north will pull away into Canada, leaving us with partly cloudy skies, a light west breeze, and temperatures falling into the lower and middle 60s.
157 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 A slow-moving upper level low will lead to cooler conditions Monday into Tuesday along with a continued chance for showers and few thunderstorms each day. Drier and warmer conditions will evolve toward midweek and beyond. SCT SHRA will increase in coverage through the daytime as an unseasonably deep midlevel closed low migrates through the Great Lakes region. This will keep highs temps ranging from the mid 70s in the N to the lower 80s in the S. Lows dip into the lower/mid 60s toward daybreak Tuesday. The upper trough will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through Tuesday.
This leaves the low in a good position to continue bringing up moisture from the south and generating mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The lower PoP for Wed also comes with fewer clouds, and temperatures spike back up with the strong sunshine.
Upper troughing nearby will lead to below normal temperatures and onshore winds through midweek. Temperatures warm to above normal by week's end as high pressure gradually builds into the region. An upper level trough will prevail from NorCal through the Pacific Northwest with stout ridging centered over the Southern Plains and northern Mexico.
1220 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Upper level low pressure will provide humid, unsettled conditions with daily rounds of showers thunderstorms through the first half of the week, along with a trend towards below- normal temperature. For Monday, the approaching upper low will provide another round of showers and thunderstorms beginning by midday with surface heating. The main severe chance will lie to our east in the better instability and shear, and also in better lift as a trough axis crosses the ridges. Still, a strong storm or two will be possible in the southeast ridges during the afternoon before that threat ends.
The high wind threat is over but isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight and Monday as a upper low moves in from the west. Made some tweaks to the POPs based on radar trends and expected distribution of showers around the upper low with diurnal enhancement during Monday. Precipitation will exit to the east on Tuesday as the upper low becomes an open trough and kicks out of the western Great Lakes.
(Today through Tuesday) It has been said many times before, however the mid-level ridge continues to stay over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The mid-level ridge will continue to be the dominating factor of the weather in the region for the duration of the short term forecast. As for the low temperatures for tonight, expecting them to be in the range of upper 70s to low 80s.
1013 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 We still have a few stubborn showers lingering northwest MN, but trends are on track with this activity rapidly decreasing in covearge along with the lower stratus sliding south and southeast with the arrival of drier BL air.
At the upper levels, western and central North Dakota is currently situated under northwest flow aloft with a ridge axis located near the Montana border. At the surface, high pressure will slide southeast of the area through the day. The ridge axis will make it's way across the state today, slightly deamplifying and transitioning us into zonal flow aloft. Highs will be just a touch warmer today with the low amplitude ridge axis moving overhead, mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) The mid level ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern for Deep South Texas through the short term period as its axis shifts from just to our west to just to our east over the next 36 hours.
1048 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 TONIGHT: As of mid afternoon, GOES 16 water vapor images show the stacked upper low positioned over southeast MN churning slowly eastward. Stratus will continue to clear out from west to east overnight as the upper low meanders east with showers tapering off as low level stabilize after dark. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: Upper ridging aloft builds in Monday night with strong warm air advection in the central and western Dakotas.
1222 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 (The rest of tonight) A cold front continues to settle south across the area and currently extends from near Poteau to south of Mcalester.
-------------------------------- Weak upper ridging will build into the region today, providing warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies, though the sunshine may be filtered by smoke in some areas.
1209 AM PDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Afternoon high temperatures remain below normal for late June today, but that will quickly change this week as a heat wave arrives to the region due to high pressure aloft.
319 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough digging into the Ohio Valley, with northwesterly flow over the CWA. At the surface, observations show a low spinning over the Great Lakes with an elongated area of high pressure extending southward along the Missouri Valley. This pattern has supported continued advection of cooler air into the CWA, with temperatures currently running 5-10 degrees cooler than at this point yesterday morning. Tomorrow, the upper-level trough will gradually shift eastward as a ridge begins to build into the region.
Cyclonic flow with 15 to 25 mph surface winds, around the low pressure in the Great Lakes will serve to keep our flow out of the northwest, and this will be close enough to the area to bring an increase in both clouds and showers to the region today. Highs today, will likely reach near 80 in places that can manage mid day sunshine for any length of time, but in the north, where clouds should be most persistent, highs today look limited to the lower 70s. Tonight, the exiting vort max around the low should assist in clearing skis, and that will allow for lows in the mid 50s to near 60, while winds remain in the 10 to 15 mph range tonight.
228 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Satellite imagery shows ridge axis shifting slowly to the east, now over eastern MT, with broad troffing over the PacNW and southwest flow from SoCal to MT. Look for high temps in the mid 70s to lower 80s today, then mostly 70s Tuesday, as we remain slightly cooler than late June normals. JKL As the trough moves though Wed and Thur, chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue.
This high pressure will remain over the gulf through the week keeping an onshore wind flow and will also keep the effects of the frontal boundary well to our north as the front moves eastward by the middle of the week. Above average temperatures can be expected through the week with daytime highs topping out in the low to mid 90's and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70's. Pleasant weather can be expected across the eastern gulf waters as high pressure remains over the area. Rain chances will be on the low side the first half of the week, then increasing for the latter part of the week.
The 595+ dm ridge will once again be anchored over west central Texas this afternoon.
Further north slightly drier and cooler airmass will keep temps nearer late June normals.
Despite the drier and relative cooler air, cyclonic flow from the near vicinity parent Low rotating over the Great Lakes may induce some diurnal showers/storms that drop down to our northeast peripheral boundary. upper ridge stays mostly west with its influence, although temps in SEMO sneak up into the lower 90s again.
This Evening and Tonight A much cooler and drier air mass has worked into the region today behind a cold front. However, coverage should stay on the low side and most locations are not expected to receive measurable rain. high confidence Dry conditions will be seen across the area as high pressure quickly moves through the area.
(Today through Tuesday) Models begin the short term by depicting a trough developing across the Eastern CONUS, while broad ridging/high pressure dominates most of the mid-west. Meanwhile, a mid-level trough that previously was over the area will continue to migrate further east, with an associated weak low moving away from the state. Temperatures will remain hot each day with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and morning lows in the low 70s.
1002 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Current upper air analysis shows upper low situated over the Great Lakes region, with upper ridging over the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure sits over the southern WY/SD border. Towards mid-week, ridge over the northern and central plains flattens out as upper trough deepens over the far western CONUS and eventually slides over the Rockies as we move toward the weekend. Active weather and potential for severe storms will persist likely into the weekend, though much will depend on timing of the waves and the movement of the trough through the week.
Heat and moisture will increase towards midweek as a ridge builds in from the west. Heat index values may approach or exceed 115F for much of the area by late week as an anomalous ridge builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
An upper-level ridge is positioned across most of the central CONUS with southwest flow aloft for the CWA. A strong jet stream associated with the upper-level ridge is present across the CWA and will remain for the day. 700mb disturbances move through the ridge throughout the afternoon hours, providing some additional lift and energy to initiate showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dewpoints will increase to the mid- to upper-50s this afternoon, with the NAMNEST suggesting dewpoints could approach the low-60s across western Nebraska.
615 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 (Today through Tuesday) It has been said many times before, however the mid-level ridge continues to stay over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The mid-level ridge will continue to be the dominating factor of the weather in the region for the duration of the short term forecast. As for the low temperatures for tonight, expecting them to be in the range of upper 70s to low 80s.
939 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 A slow moving low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes will lead to occasional showers and a chance for thunderstorms today through Tuesday. Ongoing fcst remains on track as cloud cover continues to increase locally as moisture pinwheels around an unseasonably deep mid/upper low over the Great Lakes region. Upper level low pressure will shift slowly east across lower Michigan through this afternoon. Mid level energy rotating around the low will combine with low level covergent flow across the region to produce showers today. The upper level low will weaken as it moves slowly east across the lower Great Lakes tonight through Tuesday. Lows tonight will be mostly in the lower 60s with highs on Tuesday in the 70s.
Implied shower and storm motions on the KBYX radar suggest a weak inverted trough is over the Straits of Florida. The best coverage of showers and storms is across the Straits, but there are suggestions that the inverted trough may lift northward somewhat this afternoon. Light to gentle east to southeast breezes will persist through tonight as the ridge over the western North Atlantic lingers over the Florida Peninsula.
638 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 A slow moving low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes will lead to occasional showers and a chance for thunderstorms today through Tuesday. Upper level low pressure will shift slowly east across lower Michigan through this afternoon. Mid level energy rotating around the low will combine with low level covergent flow across the region to produce showers today. The upper level low will weaken as it moves slowly east across the lower Great Lakes tonight through Tuesday. Lows tonight will be mostly in the lower 60s with highs on Tuesday in the 70s.
(Today) A partially cutoff upper low will gradually mature as it tracks east- southeastward into Lower MI this morning, before beginning to lift northeastward later today. Otherwise, we anticipate a mostly sunny sky today, with dewpoints (currently in the u60s-l70s) expected to gradually fall into the l-m 60s north of the TN River as low-level flow begins to veer to WNW in the wake of a weak cold front.
Upper level ridging will build into the area today, bringing mostly dry conditions with high temperatures warming into the upper 70s, to the mid 80s.
552 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 A cold front will stall across the Gulf of Maine today through early week. High temperatures today will range from the mid 60s to around 70 across much of the forecast area, with around 60 to the lower 60s along the Downeast coast. The vertically stacked low pressure system over the Great Lakes will extend a warm front across the Downeast coast and remain fairly stationary on Tuesday morning.
557 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 As the upper level ridge builds over the Plains, the weather should remain dry for the most part and start to warm up.
310 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over central portions of the Dakotas and Nebraska. Weak energy passing through northern portions of the ridge is producing isolated to scattered showers and storms across central to northeastern portions of WY. A somewhat active week of weather is ahead as west to southwest flow ahead of a developing upper trough over the western US brings several disturbances across the region.
614 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 (Today and tonight) Weak surface ridging continued over the region early this morning north of a diffuse stationary front near the I-20 corridor. As a mid- level high draws closer from northern Chihuahua today, winds at 700mb will back SW and advect even warmer temps across much of the South Plains to the tune of 17-19C by early this evening.
The large low pressure system responsible for last night's weather is still slowly tracking east over the Great Lakes. Its associated cold front was left behind by the convection and was laid out from western OH southwestward through central KY early this morning. The upper low and trough axis will be slowly moving away to the east on Tuesday, but will still retain enough influence with cool air aloft so that diurnal destabilization could again lead to some showers and thunderstorms, especially over our eastern counties closest to the upper level trough. The upper level pattern will start out in a weak Omega pattern with a high pressure ridge across the heart of the country while troughing sits over the Northeast and another across the west coast.
As a slow-moving area of low pressure circulates to the south and west of the region, the Northern Rockies will continue to see the development of thunderstorms into the afternoon and evening hours today and through the week.
- Increasing chances showers/T-storms This Afternoon - Not as Warm Today GOES-16 H20 vapor imagery was showing an upper low spinning over western lower Michigan. Disturbances will move around the base of the trough with cyclonic flow, lingering moisture and good low level lapse rates expected to trigger mainly afternoon and evening convection with the best chances of northeastern sections, closer to the upper low. It will be notable as compared to temperatures yesterday ahead of the cold front. As the upper low shifts into southwestern Ontario, an upper ridge will inch closer to the central Indiana. With the low starting to move further away and darkness commencing, should see some clearing tonight. Thus, overnight lows will only bottom out in the lower 60s.
427 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Warmer conditions are expected today.
Dangerous heat is likely later this week as a trough to the east lifts northward allowing for a midlevel high situated over Texas to progress eastward. Guidance continues to show 850mb temps associated with this high exceeding the max when compared to sounding climatology, ranging from 24-26 C, suggesting temperatures should reach the low 100s. Tuesday, our region will be squeezed between the midlevel high over Texas and the trough to the east, which will allow for a disturbance to traverse along the eastern periphery of the high into our area keeping rain and storm chances in the forecast.
728 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Models begin the short term by depicting a trough developing across the Eastern CONUS, while broad ridging/high pressure dominates most of the mid-west. Meanwhile, a mid-level trough that previously was over the area will continue to migrate further east, with an associated weak low moving away from the state. Temperatures will remain hot each day with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and morning lows in the low 70s.