Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
443 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure will build across the region today then persist through the weekend. Thereafter, high pressure will dominate the weather today and tonight. However, with the warmer air mass, lows will not be as cold as those seen this morning.
KBYX radar shows scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over the Straits of Florida which were moving to the west-northwest with some of these on a collision course with Key West and the Lower Keys. Atlantic ridging continues to nudge its way westward into Florida with the upper level trough moving westward over the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche. Surface analysis shows a strong high pressure system off the coast of the Southeast U. The pattern over the next several days will continue to be driven by ridging over the western North Atlantic and troughing over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico.
1103 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 KEY MESSAGES: Key Messages: - Showers and thunderstorms will continue to pivot around a stubborn upper low through tomorrow. As the low finally begins weaken and move off to the south and east late Tuesday, easterly flow will strengthen into Wednesday with mainly dry conditions and highs around 70.
With temperatures running cooler than blended guidance is currently suggesting, kept overnight lows on the cooler side, bottoming out in the upper 50s/lower 60s. (Tuesday through Wednesday night) The upper low discussed above will dig further southeastward on Tuesday/Tuesday night, before turning east-northeastward across the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday/Wednesday night.
A cold front passage on Tuesday will kick off a pattern change as a large storm system nudges into the region. Much cooler and unsettled weather conditions will persist Wednesday and beyond with a chance for light accumulating snowfall at elevations above 6500-7000 ft MSL towards the weekend. A deep upper level low stemming from the Gulf of Alaska will dominate the weather pattern through the forecast period. Temperatures will fall another several degrees as this system passes through, lowering below normal with some areas including Burns, Idaho City, and McCall dipping below freezing Wednesday night.
1041 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 A slow moving low pressure aloft will bring periods of showers and a few thunderstorms to central Illinois through mid week. Lows in the lower 60s still look on track for tonight. 37 Key Messages: 1) Slow moving upper low will bring numerous showers the next couple days. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low centered near Minneapolis early this afternoon, with the synoptic models in good agreement in bringing it into eastern Iowa by Tuesday afternoon. By midday Wednesday, most of the synoptic models have the low only making it to just south of Lake Michigan, so high rain chances will continue through Wednesday, primarily across the northeast half of the forecast area, however, any severe weather threat appears a bit more toward our east.
Presently, broad high pressure is centered over the forecast area leading to light winds across the area. Beyond fog concerns, expect breezy conditions in the west this afternoon and into the overnight hours as high pressure very gradually shifts eastward and the pressure gradient tightens.
Cooler, windier, cloudier, and wetter conditions expected for the end of the week into the weekend.
1221 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Water vapor imagery shows an upper level-low over the Upper Midwest and a high pressure system over the west coast of Mexico giving northwest flow aloft locally. A low-level high pressure system to the northeast of the CWA will bring subsidence to the region resulting in mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day and into tomorrow. Due to a weak low-level pressure gradient, temperatures for tomorrow will be warmer than usual with highs in the upper 80s on the Caprock and lower 90s off the Caprock and lows ranging from the upper 50s over the northwest South Plains to lower 60s on the southern Rolling Plains.
244 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Northwest flow aloft is present over the area this morning with upper air analysis showing the ridge axis situated to our west over the Rockies, allowing for clear skies across the CWA. Going into the day today, the area will remain under mostly clear skies as some eastward progression and deamplification of the upper ridge begins. On Wednesday, the upper ridge continues its eastward progression, moving more over then east of the area as the upper trough expands into the western CONUS.
Additional forcing will arrive tonight as a deepening upper level trough coupled with the exit region of a jet streak move over Deep South Texas.
1057 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Drizzle and light rain chances mainly in the higher terrain will diminish through Wednesday morning, with dry and seasonably cool conditions for the rest of the region.
Pesky upper low currently entering northeast Iowa will maintain a moist fetch over the region today into much of Wednesday. Conditions today will be a continuation of what we have seen the past 24 hours with a broad upglide of moist air on the eastern periphery of the upper low as it slowly moves from eastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Bands of showers and embedded storms will line up with various vort lobes rotating around the upper low resulting in on again/off again rainfall. The upper low continues an east-southeast trek Wednesday, entering northwestern Indiana by late in the day. Broad upglide will continue to produce at least scattered showers and a few storms, though coverage and rainfall rates should lessen appreciably through the day as the higher precipitable water air shifts out of the region.
An upper low that has been supporting overnight convection over the upper Midwest will slide southeastward from Iowa to Illinois during the Short Term. Though the bulk of the day today will be dry with partly cloudy skies, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in southern Indiana late this afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes and the upper low approaches. Temperature-wise, went on the warm side again with lows generally around the lower 60s. - High pressure to bring more unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions.
As this low moves southeast, deeper moisture and weak 850-500 mb q-vector convergence moves into the far southern cwa this afternoon. Key Messages: -A weakening low pressure system provides slight chances for light rain showers tonight over the south-central U. -Much warmer than normal temperatures return this weekend with record warmth possible. Starting tonight, a mid-level closed low over southeastern Iowa swings into northern Illinois with high pressure over James Bay. The closed low continues east through northern Illinois and Indiana on Wednesday, then heads northeast Wednesday night toward Lake Erie while the high begins to shift southeast into Quebec.
However a cold front will move from west to east across Montana tonight, resulting in a gradual cooling trend over the next few days.
420 AM PDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure to the south will bring warming into Wednesday with high temperatures a few degrees above average for the lower deserts and still a few degrees below average for the coast and valleys.
639 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure over Quebec will sag southwards across northern New England during the course of the week.
High temperatures will be cooler than average, ranging from the low-60s to low-70s. Weak ridging from the west will advance as a upper-lvl low in the Midwest pivots. Showers will be associated with the upper low and may start to creep into the Ohio counties Wednesday afternoon.
Under mostly mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies through this morning and early afternoon, we will see our temperatures rise into the lower 90s F for most of the area and will likely see cumulus development by late morning. By this afternoon, there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly south of I-20 as the upper-level trough and associated weak surface frontal boundary are hanging around the region. Global guidance continue to show a well-defined trough axis over our CWA digging further south beginning on Wednesday morning. In addition to this, a 574 dm upper low well to our north over the Midwest makes its way east towards the Ohio Valley Region. There are some discrepancies between the Euro and the GFS as the Euro places the upper low a little further east across parts of northern Illinois compared to the GFS.
530 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered just off the coast of Baja del Sur, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under northwest flow aloft. Easterly flow will keep a lid on temperatures today, similar to yesterday, if not a degree or two cooler in the south. Wednesday, thicknesses increase, adding 2-3F to afternoon highs, around 7-9F above normal, w/most locations in the lower 90s.
High pressure centered over north/central TX will dominate the weather, providing north to northeast sfc flow across the region. In terms of temperatures, with north to northeast flow aloft and 850mb temperatures into the 15 to 19 degC range, highs will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Highs will generally be from the low to mid 90s. A transition to warmer and more humid conditions can be expected on Wednesday.
The trough dominated pattern will keep temperatures below normal, generally by several degrees.
By this afternoon, there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly south of I-20 as the upper-level trough and associated weak surface frontal boundary are hanging around the region. Global guidance continue to show a well-defined trough axis over our CWA digging further south beginning on Wednesday morning. In addition to this, a 574 dm upper low well to our north over the Midwest makes its way east towards the Ohio Valley Region. There are some discrepancies between the Euro and the GFS as the Euro places the upper low a little further east across parts of northern Illinois compared to the GFS.
Strong high pressure will persist across the region through mid week maintaining dry conditions and keeping high temperatures above normal. Late in the week, a large low pressure system will slowly move south toward the Desert Southwest forcing a noticeable cooling trend and a period of breezy to locally windy conditions. The region is now under the influence of strong upper level ridging from the subtropical high currently positioned directly to our south across northwest Mexico and southern Baja. Well to our northwest, the Pacific Northwest and northern California are being impacted by a strong Pacific trough.
611 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 An upper level low pressure system, currently near the Twin Cities, continues to influence the region, bringing low clouds and fog to the CWA early this morning. Southeasterly winds should spread across the CWA on Wednesday, bringing slightly warmer temperatures, and hopefully some sunshine by the afternoon hours. Long range pattern dominated by a deepening western CONUS trough. Through the next few days we will see ridging become more pronounced as the trough over the western CONUS deepens, resulting in a persistent push of milder air through just about till the end of the extended range.
935 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure will build across the region today then persist through the weekend. Warmer today with highs around the upper 60s. Thereafter, high pressure will dominate the weather today and tonight. However, with the warmer air mass, lows will not be as cold as those seen this morning.
245 AM MST Tue Sep 26 2023 Strong high pressure will persist across the region through mid week maintaining dry conditions and keeping high temperatures above normal. Late in the week, a large low pressure system will slowly move south toward the Desert Southwest forcing a noticeable cooling trend and a period of breezy to locally windy conditions. The region is now under the influence of strong upper level ridging from the subtropical high currently positioned directly to our south across northwest Mexico and southern Baja. Well to our northwest, the Pacific Northwest and northern California are being impacted by a strong Pacific trough.
456 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 No major forecast concerns through Wednesday w/ large scale upper- level ridging in control as 500-mb heights climb to 585 to 587 dam across the central Rockies. A few weak mid-level disturbances will traverse the flow along the northern periphery of the ridge during the next 24-48 hours, but limited moisture should preclude much in the way of clouds.
650 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Strong high pressure, centered over eastern Canada will build down the eastern seaboard through the work week. Mostly overcast and much cooler today. As a strong high pressure builds from eastern Canada southward across NC today, CAA from the NE and plenty of low stratus and stratocumulus will lead to much cooler temperatures.
Upper level ridge will remain across Colorado today and tonight, while at the surface, weak boundary will drift southward through the plains during the afternoon, ending up near the CO/NM border this evening. Mid level temps rise just slightly today across the area, suggesting maxes a degf or two warmer than yesterday.
620 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 (Today through Wednesday night) High pressure is continuing to shift to the east today which will bring a return flow of moisture across the panhandles. Further enhancement for the rain showers and thunderstorms can occur with the passage of a embedded short wave trough. The SW to W portions have the highest odds of seeing convection but this is still <20% chance while northern and eastern panhandles have <10% chance. The eastward push of the ridge will also bring gusty winds across the panhandles for both today and Wednesday. The building ridge will also continue a weak warming trend which will see highs mostly in the 80s today increase to mostly low 90s for Wednesday.
811 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Satellite imagery this morning shows south-southwesterly flow aloft across the Northern Rockies and MT ahead of a broad upper level trough moving inland across the NW US. Otherwise, forecast is on track with a warm and breezy afternoon expected before a Pacific cold front moves east across the region this evening. However a cold front will move from west to east across Montana tonight, resulting in a gradual cooling trend over the next few days. 500 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 (26/12Z TAF Period) Southwesterly flow aloft will be on the increase through the day on Tuesday as an upper level trough begins to approach the area.
533 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 (Today and tonight) We will be situated between an upper level high to our southwest and an upper level low to our northeast. The high will have a stronger influence on our weather today, pushing our temperatures slightly above normal, into the low 90s, and lowering our rain chances for the day.
Presently, the low-level stratus edge is generally along and east of Highway 83, although is expected to continue working at least a bit further west this morning. Presently, broad high pressure is centered over the forecast area leading to light winds across the area. Beyond fog concerns, expect breezy conditions in the west this afternoon and into the overnight hours as high pressure very gradually shifts eastward and the pressure gradient tightens.
1024 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure over Quebec will sag southwards across northern New England during the course of the week.
655 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure will build across the region today then persist through the weekend. Thereafter, high pressure will dominate the weather today and tonight. However, with the warmer air mass, lows will not be as cold as those seen this morning.
509 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 An amplified ridge axis was splitting the CWA on the latest H500 hand analysis map. squeezed between an upstream block and digging EPac trough. The latest iteration shows some afternoon CAPE again but much less than yesterday so will again push my luck and go with a dry forecast and more popping afternoon CU on the ridges. High latitude energy dropping into the western trough will begin to dig this feature farther into the Western States on Wednesday. pushing the ridge out onto the Plains and begin to introduce breezy conditions to our western CWA by the afternoon. A lobe of energy will dropping through the base of the Western States trough will nudge the ridge over our area to the East while it digs the trough southward.
613 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 (Today and tonight) Water Vapor imagery currently shows an upper level low over the upper Midwest and an upper level high over the Baja Peninsula, influencing northwest flow aloft over the region. Additionally, a theta-e ridge axis extends from central Mexico to the northern TX Panhandle, this in combination with upslope flow will help initiate thunderstorm development over eastern New Mexico this afternoon.
Forecast highs look good, another 3-5 degrees warmer. We put a bit more resolution in the mountain lows, a couple degrees colder in the valley bottoms and warmer on the ridges. Upper ridging is over the CWA on Wednesday, moving slowly eastward Wednesday night with weak flow aloft.
When combined with the upper-level forcing associated with the trough drifting over the Gulf, there is a high probability of thunderstorms developing later today. Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing deep tropical moisture from the western Caribbean spreading north across the Florida Peninsula associated with an upper level low centered just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface, a weak trough positioned across the central Gulf of Mexico today will gradually slide west through the rest of the week as surface ridging builds in north of Florida.
1010 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure will remain in place across southern Canada through the end of the week, leading to continued onshore flow locally. This area of high pressure will start to break down and shift southward heading into this weekend as ridging builds to our west over the Ohio Valley. 1015 AM Update: Drizzle and light rain has continued to come down across a large portion of the area this morning as a result of an upper trough situated over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states early this week with onshore flow. Previous Discussion Follows: A strong area of high pressure will remain in place today over southern Canada, while a weak area of low pressure resides off the Mid- Atlantic Coast.
Speaking of heat, temperatures have been a little warmer that originally anticipated today, with highs likely to climb into the low and mid 90s areawide this afternoon. On tomorrow, high pressure will settle across the region, bringing us quiet conditions. Morning lows should start off a bit cooler, with mid to upper 60s generally across the region.
Upper system currently pushing through the midwest will aid in pushing a cold front towards the KS/OK very late tonight, however with no impacts.
The gradual drying trend does continue at mid afternoon however with decreasing areas of drizzle but still plenty of low clouds and shrouded ridgetops. The improving trend will be shorlived however a conditions will deteriorate into Thu and Thu night as upper trough from Ohio approaches and CAD pattern east of the Appalachians brings expansive cloud cover and low rain chances in the presence of deepening moist easterly/upslope flow once again from the Atlantic. By late week the focus shifts to an upstream trough over the Grt Lks.
1000 AM MST Tue Sep 26 2023 Updated Aviation Strong high pressure will persist across the region through mid week maintaining dry conditions and keeping high temperatures above normal. Late in the week, a large low pressure system will slowly move south toward the Desert Southwest forcing a noticeable cooling trend and a period of breezy to locally windy conditions. The region is now under the influence of strong upper level ridging from the subtropical high currently positioned directly to our south across northwest Mexico and southern Baja. Well to our northwest, the Pacific Northwest and northern California are being impacted by a strong Pacific trough.
238 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Key Messages * Upper low continues to bring in low clouds and influence temperatures * Fog will redevelop tonight into Wednesday morning An upper low is still spinning over Iowa this afternoon and drawing low clouds into South Dakota. Southeast sfc flow and a building upper ridge will help highs pop into the 70s to near 80 degrees from the James Valley west on Wednesday.
1250 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Drizzle and light rain chances mainly in the higher terrain will diminish through Wednesday morning, with dry and seasonably cool conditions for the rest of the region.
257 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Key Messages: - The low pressure system continues to rotate shower and thunderstorms through the area. - Warmer and drier conditions move in for the end of the week and into the weekend. The slow moving area of low pressure is expected to continue its shift eastward towards the Ohio Valley through the day Wednesday.
No major forecast concerns through Wednesday w/ large scale upper- level ridging in control as 500-mb heights climb to 585 to 587 dam across the central Rockies. A few weak mid-level disturbances will traverse the flow along the northern periphery of the ridge during the next 24-48 hours, but limited moisture should preclude much in the way of clouds.
Responsible for this shift toward increased rain chances is owed to a weakness in the upper heights aloft associated with the tail end of troughing extending southward from the Midwest as well as a weak surface boundary that has in recent days drifted northward from the coast line. Highs Wednesday will remain warm, likely up into the lower 90s F across the area. At 500 mb, a 574 dm low height center is expected to move eastward across the Great Lakes, taking the trough axis over our forecast area towards the southeast.
An upper level low pressure system, currently near the Twin Cities, continues to influence the region, bringing low clouds and fog to the CWA early this morning. Southeasterly winds should spread across the CWA on Wednesday, bringing slightly warmer temperatures, and hopefully some sunshine by the afternoon hours. Long range pattern dominated by a deepening western CONUS trough. Through the next few days we will see ridging become more pronounced as the trough over the western CONUS deepens, resulting in a persistent push of milder air through just about till the end of the extended range.
447 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure over Quebec will sag southwards across northern New England during the course of the week.
1222 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure will build across the region today then persist through the weekend. Not a cloud in the sky and not expecting much if any afternoon cumulus, as very strong surface and upper level high pressure continue to build in from the north. Thereafter, high pressure will dominate the weather today and tonight. However, with the warmer air mass, lows will not be as cold as those seen this morning.
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 (Today through Wednesday night) High pressure is continuing to shift to the east today which will bring a return flow of moisture across the panhandles. Further enhancement for the rain showers and thunderstorms can occur with the passage of a embedded short wave trough. The SW to W portions have the highest odds of seeing convection but this is still <20% chance while northern and eastern panhandles have <10% chance. The eastward push of the ridge will also bring gusty winds across the panhandles for both today and Wednesday. The building ridge will also continue a weak warming trend which will see highs mostly in the 80s today increase to mostly low 90s for Wednesday.
145 PM PDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Warmer conditions expected through the middle of the week before a widespread cooling trend into the weekend.