Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will gradually shift east into the region later today into tonight, then move to the east on Saturday. Modest cold air advection should reinforce the cool temperatures across the area today, with highs only in the lower 40s inland and middle 40s lakeside.
Winds will be much lighter today with weak mixed layer winds and a lax surface pressure gradient due to the high pressure in place across the region. With moderating 925 mb temperatures highs will be in the lower to mid 50s.
524 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Much cooler temperatures and rain showers were a welcomed sight this afternoon across much of the region. Cloud cover keeps temperatures cool again on Saturday but most everyone can expect temperatures a touch warmer than today, Widespread 50s and low 60s are expected.
625 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 Cooler to end to the week with intermittent light rain most likely in the far southern tier this morning into the early afternoon.
Very light winds and clear skies under high pressure have allowed temperatures to fall a little below what was initially forecast for this morning, with lows across the area in the 20s. Cloud cover will increase tonight into Saturday as an upper trough approaches from the west and moves across the area during the day. Even so, with southerly winds temperatures should still be a few degrees warmer than today with highs around 60 degrees.
(Today through Saturday) The mid-level trough draped across the Southern CONUS persists into this weekend, with a stronger 500mb low developing off Baja California on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front is already working south through the CWA, expected to reach and pass through the Rio Grande Valley near daybreak. The associated low pressure system drops off the East Texas coast with the front this morning and rides south down the lower Texas coast, stalling just offshore through the weekend. Temperatures gradually fall through most of the short term period into the mid to upper 50s tonight and rebounding only slightly Saturday afternoon into the low to mid 60s.
702 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Today and Tonight: Rain will continue across portions of the region today and tonight as west-southwesterly flow aloft lifts moisture over a cold front that is oozing southward to the Gulf Coast. At this early morning hour, the cold front extended from roughly Alexandria, LA northeastward through Meridian, MS. Areas in the Pine Belt of southeast MS will not fare much warmer, but should start the morning out in vicinity of the frontal boundary and should record at least morning high temps around 65-70 before rain and the cold front's air mass drop temps into the lower 60s by late afternoon. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the main upper-level low pressure system spinning over AZ/NM this morning, and a nice plume of 1.
613 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 Unseasonably warm and dry weather today will transition to cloudy and very cool weather with periods of rain for the weekend as a cold front drops south later today.
632 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 (Today through Saturday) High pressure will remain the dominant influence for Friday and entering the weekend even as the ridge center pushes more offshore in the western Atlantic. Winds will stay steady out of the east and breezy under the high pressure. With low level moisture continuing to linger, there will once again be chances again for late night and early morning fog due to the low level moisture.
404 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 (Today through Saturday) High pressure will remain the dominant influence for Friday and entering the weekend even as the ridge center pushes more offshore in the western Atlantic. Winds will stay steady out of the east and breezy under the high pressure. With low level moisture continuing to linger, there will once again be chances again for late night and early morning fog due to the low level moisture.
715 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 (Today through Saturday) The main challenge for the short term is exactly how far south a cold front will push into the CWA through Saturday. The cold front is currently situated across northern GA.
641 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 Upslope snow showers will remain possible today into tonight before a cold front pushes through the area by Saturday morning.
Highs should generally range from the upper 30s to upper 40s, with those warmer readings over the southwest CWA.
High pressure and a dry airmass will build into the region through the weekend. Despite a very weak cold front dropping through this afternoon, the area should remain mostly sunny. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will sag southeast into our area through this afternoon. High pressure at the surface will keep dry weather across the middle Ohio Valley through the weekend.
High pressure will provide a dry and cool weekend. The exception is for areas near and south of I 68, where web cams and surface observations indicate rain is falling, with snow across the higher elevations. These cameras show some minor accumulations in the higher terrain. This rain, and snow in the higher terrain (with 850mb temps just below 0,) should continue this morning as the wave tracks along a quasi stationary front over the Mid Atlantic region. Up to an inch of wet snow is possible along the highest ridge tops of Tucker county WV before ending. An upper level trough will push a weak cold front through the region tonight.
552 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 High pressure to afford a dry weekend with highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Attendant cold front to trail through CWA with modest low level cold advection through today which should temper highs a few degrees in comparison to yesterday.
The 00z evening sounding at KEY revealed a very dry troposphere, even in the low- levels. A rather routine forecast on tap through the weekend, as high pressure over the western North Atlantic largely dictates the sensible weather. Anticyclonic flow associated with the high will provide a brief window of perhaps slightly elevated shower activity late tonight night before sunrise.
640 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 A sharp cold front is expected to arrive later this afternoon and evening, bringing much cooler and wetter conditions for the weekend as cold air wedge sets up.
This will produce a cooler day than yesterday, with highs only in the 30s. This surge of warm air should start a warm-up in the forecast, with highs starting to creep into the low 40s.
514 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 (Today through Saturday) The mid-level trough draped across the Southern CONUS persists into this weekend, with a stronger 500mb low developing off Baja California on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front is already working south through the CWA, expected to reach and pass through the Rio Grande Valley near daybreak. The associated low pressure system drops off the East Texas coast with the front this morning and rides south down the lower Texas coast, stalling just offshore through the weekend. Temperatures gradually fall through most of the short term period into the mid to upper 50s tonight and rebounding only slightly Saturday afternoon into the low to mid 60s.
Drier air across Oklahoma in the 925-850 mb layer may sneak down into our northwest counties later this morning, resulting in an erosion of the low clouds, but thicker high cloud cover will remain.
640 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 A cold front will bring some more rain or snow showers and below average temperatures today and tonight. Persistent showers have faded this morning, and we lowered PoPs slightly for the morning hours, however, PoPs still ramp up again fairly quickly into the afternoon and evening with the cold front later today. And finally, perhaps due to this increased cloud cover and light southwesterly flow, hourly temps are running a bit warmer than expected and have made some minor tweaks to match. A cold front is expected to cross the forecast area today, bringing yet again more showery precipitation. High pressure will build in from the west/northwest, putting and end (for now) to our unsettled weather.
High pressure will provide a dry and cool weekend. The exception is for areas near and south of I 68, where web cams and surface observations indicate rain is falling, with snow across the higher elevations. These cameras show some minor accumulations in the higher terrain. This rain, and snow in the higher terrain (with 850mb temps just below 0,) should continue this morning as the wave tracks along a quasi stationary front over the Mid Atlantic region. An upper level trough will push a weak cold front through the region tonight.
Key Messages: Today will be a cooler day, with highs a few degrees below normal for a change. A cold front is still working through our eastern counties as of 2 AM. The cool high pressure will bring another cool day for Saturday, though winds will be much lighter than today. South winds will help keep our lows Saturday night warmer, in the lower to mid 30s.
334 AM MST Fri Nov 10 2023 Across the region this morning, skies are clear as high pressure continues to move across the area. From the latest RAP40 500mb analysis, the region is currently under NW flow aloft as a broad open trough pushes slowly eastward, with an amplified ridge over the western portion of the country making a slow trudge into the Rockies.
A sharp cold front is then expected to arrive later this afternoon and evening, bringing much cooler and wetter conditions for the weekend as cold air wedge sets up.
A weak upper low will continue to slide southeast across the region this morning, embedded within northwest flow aloft. An isolated snow shower or two is not out of the question across the east today on the backside of the upper low as it departs the area. Temperatures today will be very similar to yesterday with highs in the low to mid 30s across the Turtle Mountains and vicinity, to the low to mid 40s over the southwest part of the state. Tonight's lows will dip down into the low to mid 20s.
918 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 A cold front will bring some more rain or snow showers and below average temperatures today and tonight. A cold front is expected to cross the forecast area today, bringing yet again more showery precipitation. High pressure will build in from the west/northwest, putting and end (for now) to our unsettled weather.
Satellite and radar are indicating that the cold front is currently along the Idaho border with Washington and Oregon. Snow levels will be relatively high today, ranging between 4000 to 5000 feet, keeping accumulating snow mainly confined to the higher terrain. The higher terrain of northwest Montana has the best chance of receiving a decent amount of snow with Marias and Lookout passes expected to get an additions 2 to 4 inches of snow. The higher terrain, especially along the Continental Divide, have a 60 to 90 percent chance of experiencing wind gusts in excessive of 40 mph.
High pressure in the western North Atlantic has moved eastward over the past 24 hours, and steering flow across the forecast area has shifted to the southeast which has brought in higher dew points and temperatures. We have already reached the lower to mid 80s in most island communities, with dew points in the mid to occasionally upper 70s. From synopsis, high pressure centered in the western North Atlantic will continue to slide eastward and broaden over the next several days.
120 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 A cold front will settle south into SC this evening. Chilly high pressure will follow and build down the eastern seaboard from southeastern Canada through the weekend. Rest of today: A back-door cold front continues to progress south and is just an hour or two from exiting southern portions of the forecast area. CAA continues tonight as the chilly high pressure wedges in from the north. The cold front will stall to our south Saturday and Saturday night. Strong and chilly high pressure will build south into NC bringing chilly temperatures. There is a small chance of very light rain near the NC/SC border region, especially late Saturday night as low pressure forms well to our south.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough has opened, and is moving through the Four Corners, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. Radar returns show a few residual -SHRA in the area, and these should continue to diminish this afternoon/evening as the trough moves east. To the west, the next trough begins digging down Baja, increasing southwest flow aloft over the area. Saturday night, temperatures should be similar to tonight's, if not a degree or two warmer.
135 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 Building high pressure provides dry and cool weather conditions through the weekend. Cooler temperatures then settle along northwesterly flow this weekend. This will lead to dry and seasonably cool weather with low temperatures dropping into the mid to lower 30s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 20s over the northeast mountains under mostly clear skies. Expecting plenty of sunshine on Saturday, with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 50s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 30s over the highest elevations of our northeast mountains.
Currently, a surface cold front is located near the Gulf Coast, with isentropic lift producing light rain across GA/SC/AL. High pressure over MO/IA/IL today will shift east across the lower Great Lakes and OH Valley on Saturday.
As of 9am, cold front has slipped through the SE part of the forecast area and generally extends along the I-10/12 corridor. Temps have fallen across the central/SE areas this morning as the cooler air in the wake of the front slowly edges southward.
1255 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2023 Radar is currently showing some light snow over the mountains to our west from a dip in heights behind the ridging over central MT. For the remainder of the region, weak ridging will be in place for the day today providing mild and dry conditions.
Temperature-wise, overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night will drop into the mid to upper 50s while daytime highs Saturday only climb into the lower to mid 60s.
The trough across the region this morning will continue to move off to the east through the day. An upper-level low pressure area remains located over northern Arizona, maintaining the cool temperatures today. Mostly clear skies and light surface winds have contributed to the brisk morning with much of northern Arizona near to well below freezing. The trough's exit later today will signal the end of precipitation chances and a return of light, variable winds.
1044 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Benign weather is forecast for eastern Oklahoma to western Arkansas today as high pressure prevails. Sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise into the lower to mid 60s across the area this afternoon.
The combination of ridging aloft and at the surface has kept conditions warm and humid today.
As the trough moves through the area winds will turn to the SW with breezy winds around 30 mph. This will be the air mass that will affect the area Saturday allowing RH values to fall into the low teens to perhaps even single digits.
High pressure continues over the local area, with just enough moisture to support a few ongoing showers over the local Atlantic waters.
257 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 High pressure moves through the region this weekend, bringing mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures.
The 850 mb thermal trough is forecast to be over the area around 00z this evening which is about when the greatest chance for showers will be. Surface temperatures will be above freezing for most of the area this evening so impacts look unlikely.
1123 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 High pressure to afford a dry weekend with highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Attendant cold front to trail through CWA with modest low level cold advection through today which should temper highs a few degrees in comparison to yesterday.
129 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 1) Our benign weather pattern continues through the day Saturday An area of high pressure, which is currently centered over southwestern Iowa and northwestern Missouri, will continue to slowly translate to the east tonight through the day Saturday. The high pressure system will keep winds light and variable tonight. Make sure to bundle up if you plan to be out and about tonight! The high pressure system will move off to the east Saturday, which will result in southerly return flow over our region. The bulk of the moisture will remain to our north, so not expecting any precipitation associated with this trough.
(This evening through Saturday Night) Much cooler conditions across the region in wake of yesterday's frontal passage. Weak isentropic lift above this cooler airmass has kept low clouds along with light rain/drizzle across the region today. However, locations north of I-30 have managed to get a break in cloud cover, which has allowed temps to climb into the low to mid 50s. Short term progs continue to suggest that weak isentropic lift will continue as more weak disturbances will move across southeast Texas/SW Louisiana ahead of a trough digging across the SW CONUS.
Scattered snow/rain showers will develop overnight for the higher elevations of NW WY as a result of this disturbance. Minimal snow accumulation are expected for the higher elevations, as the system has very little moisture with it.
Lows tonight range from the lower to mid 50s well inland to the lower to mid 60s closer to the coast.
Surface obs show ridging centered over NW MO and western IA and extending all the way to the gulf coast.
1249 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2023 Across the region this morning, skies are clear as high pressure continues to move across the area. From the latest RAP40 500mb analysis, the region is currently under NW flow aloft as a broad open trough pushes slowly eastward, with an amplified ridge over the western portion of the country making a slow trudge into the Rockies.
Subsidence and drying will sweep overhead this evening as the short wave trough moves east of the area. The depressions will be further reduced the remainder of the afternoon eventually expecting to saturate at the lowest levels. Clouds will slowly clear out Saturday afternoon leading to temperatures a few degrees warmer than observed today.
(This afternoon through Saturday) A northeast to southwest oriented cold front is situated near the I- 85 corridor early this afternoon. The front, associated with a low pressure system off the New England coast, has been producing light rain across the area this morning, but rain amounts have been underwhelming with little synoptic support aloft. Expect mild temperatures with highs ranging from the lower 60s northwest to mid 70s southeast. It will feel cooler tomorrow behind the front and with occasional rain, but the front is shallow and low to mid-level flow will remain from the south to southwest due to broad mid- level ridging over the Bahamas and Florida Peninsula, so there won't be a drastic cooldown.
Chilly morning temperatures can be expected with lows near freezing.
Temperatures are on track to slowly climb into the low to middle 30s. Some flurries will be possible with the low clouds today, mainly in the Devils Lake Basin, but no accumulation is expected. Temperatures tomorrow will rise into the 30s and 40s area wide as the ridge begins to set up in our area. Key Messages: 1) Ridging aloft leaves little opportunity for impactful weather.
* Cooler temperatures, much closer to normal, with lows ~mid 30s and highs in the ~mid/upper 50s are expected through the weekend.
We've seen a few very unimpressive returns on radar that may have produced a very brief snow shower across the higher terrain of the central mountains or around Island Park but that's about it. 40s expected for much of the high country. Sun through next Fri night The upper level ridge remains in place until Mon, then a partial breakdown occurs on the northern end, putting a small portion of Custer county to get a slight chance threat for precipitation on Tue. However, CIGs should stay in the high-level range.
Temperatures at midday range from near 60 northwest where most of the sunshine prevails, to the lower 50s along the Plateau. Though the cold front is to our south, not too much in the way of current caa based on upstream temps.
1201 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 (Today through Saturday) The mid-level trough draped across the Southern CONUS persists into this weekend, with a stronger 500mb low developing off Baja California on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front is already working south through the CWA, expected to reach and pass through the Rio Grande Valley near daybreak. The associated low pressure system drops off the East Texas coast with the front this morning and rides south down the lower Texas coast, stalling just offshore through the weekend. Temperatures gradually fall through most of the short term period into the mid to upper 50s tonight and rebounding only slightly Saturday afternoon into the low to mid 60s.
Therefore, temperatures will remain cooler, dropping into the mid 40s to lower 50s overnight, and tomorrows highs only reaching into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Overall the models trended a few degrees warmer and we'll see in time if that pans out as conditions start to wetbulb out. As we move into Saturday some warmer air will advect to the area from the southerly flow and we'll see highs in the 60s.
129 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2023 - Elevated fire danger Cheyenne Ridge Saturday afternoon. Tonight into Saturday, an upper level ridge progresses eastward toward Colorado, putting the region under WNW/NW flow aloft. Temperatures aloft warm a couple degrees resulting in slightly warmer highs than Friday in the mid to upper 50s for the lower elevations. On Saturday night, continued moderate northwest flow aloft will bring continued windy conditions to the higher mountains.
1038 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Benign weather is forecast for eastern Oklahoma to western Arkansas today as high pressure prevails. Sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise into the lower to mid 60s across the area this afternoon.
(This evening through Saturday) A mid-level trough across the southwest U.
940 AM MST Fri Nov 10 2023 Across the region this morning, skies are clear as high pressure continues to move across the area. From the latest RAP40 500mb analysis, the region is currently under NW flow aloft as a broad open trough pushes slowly eastward, with an amplified ridge over the western portion of the country making a slow trudge into the Rockies.
South winds and cloud cover tonight will keep temperatures from falling below the 35-42 degree range (cooler readings in far western Kansas).
High pressure will be in control of the Quad State's weather through the weekend and then becomes reinforced early in the week.
315 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 High pressure builds in from the west through the weekend.
these generally remain on the high side for the S/SE 2/3rds of the area offering quite a bit of 60-80% type values. Temps will range from the lower 50s to mid 60s.
1108 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Much cooler temperatures and rain showers were a welcomed sight this afternoon across much of the region. Cloud cover keeps temperatures cool again on Saturday but most everyone can expect temperatures a touch warmer than today, Widespread 50s and low 60s are expected.
132 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2023 [Corrected for Fire Weather Discussion] - Elevated fire danger Cheyenne Ridge Saturday afternoon. Tonight into Saturday, an upper level ridge progresses eastward toward Colorado, putting the region under WNW/NW flow aloft. Temperatures aloft warm a couple degrees resulting in slightly warmer highs than Friday in the mid to upper 50s for the lower elevations. On Saturday night, continued moderate northwest flow aloft will bring continued windy conditions to the higher mountains.
151 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 * Quiet Seven Days Ahead * Stray Sprinkle Possible Saturday As of 2pm Friday afternoon, mostly sunny skies were ongoing with surface ridging across the area.
Latest forecast (blend of NBM/ConsShort) pulls highs down a few degrees from previous forecasts as H85 temps of +2 to +4C settle in under the trough in the afternoon.