Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
259 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023 A cold front will settle just south of the area today, with high pressure building in from the north through Thursday.
A longwave trough will push a frontal boundary through the Southeast and to Central Florida before it stalls.
Very quiet across the region tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds as high pressure was in control.
209 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Aviation - Dry cold frontal passage through late afternoon The cold front up around Cadillac was dropping steadily southward. - Some Frost Possible Up North Tonight The atmosphere behind this cold front will be cooler and continued dry.
(Today through Thursday Night ) Upper low pressure continues over the northeast U. The upper level ridge will remain along the Gulf Coast until Thursday afternoon when it expands slightly north.
Clouds should stay in place overnight, keeping temperatures from dropping much below the lower to mid 60s in most areas.
However, ample moisture and a shorwave trough passing overhead could produce very isolated showers and storms overnight.
1127 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 A cold front will drop south across the region late this evening through the overnight hours.
115 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Dry and generally seasonable weather is expected for the next several days with high pressure in place.
A cold front entering the region tomorrow night into Thursday will bring widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms.
Widespread freezing temperatures are likely tonight. The next chance for measurable rainfall will be with a passing cold front this weekend. Cold front passed through the region early this morning. Behind the front much cooler and breezy conditions are expected with Canadian high pressure building in. High pressure moves overhead tonight and winds will become calm under mostly clear skies. Perfect radiational cooling conditions will allow temperatures to fall below freezing in most areas and some locations could see temperatures into the mid 20s. Highs will generally top out in the low 60s. Previous high pressure center moves east Thursday night advecting south to southeast flow to the region.
Widespread freezing temperatures are likely tonight. The next chance for measurable rainfall will be with a passing cold front this weekend. Cold front passed through the region early this morning. Behind the front much cooler and breezy conditions are expected with Canadian high pressure building in. High pressure moves overhead tonight and winds will become calm under mostly clear skies. Perfect radiational cooling conditions will allow temperatures to fall below freezing in most areas and some locations could see temperatures into the mid 20s. Highs will generally top out in the low 60s. After a cold start in the morning, high pressure will shift east of the area Thursday, with southerly return flow helping temperatures to rebound into the mid-60s, which is still about 3-5 degrees below normal.
A weakness in the upper level ridge will develop on Wednesday. The weakness will move away from the forecast area on Thursday with upper level ridging building back in decreasing rain chances.
Weak high pressure remains over the region ahead of a frontal boundary.
155 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023 A cold front pushes off the coast overnight. High pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday, and settles over the area Wednesday night into Thursday.
but generally cooler and drier today and Thursday.
(Today) A cold front is moving south through the Tennessee Valley this morning. Overall, a cooler day is in store with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
1120 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 A cold front will move through overnight, bringing unsettled weather through tonight as the front crosses the region. This front will push to our south on Wednesday as high pressure begins to build in from the north, resulting in less humid and slightly cooler weather for late week. Skies will clear from north to south Wednesday as cold front settles across South Carolina. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than today as we will see dew points in the 50s everywhere by the afternoon.
1156 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 A cold front will move through overnight, bringing unsettled weather through tonight as the front crosses the region. This front will push to our south on Wednesday as high pressure begins to build in from the north, resulting in less humid and slightly cooler weather for late week. Skies will clear from north to south Wednesday as cold front settles across South Carolina. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than today as we will see dew points in the 50s everywhere by the afternoon.
325 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023 As of 3 AM, the back door cold front was pushed through Cedar Rapids and Iowa City and was approaching Burlington. It was bringing cooler temperatures on briefly gusty NE winds of mainly 10 to 20 MPH. Today, Canadian wildfire smoke will filter the sunshine as the cold front stalls out in central and southeast IA. Winds will diminish overnight with lows in the low to mid 40s NE and upper 40s to low 50s SW.
Temps should be a little warmer this afternoon, but still below seasonal averages.
WEDNESDAY: Expect a slight warmup as a stout upper low treks south to near the international border and induces warm air advection and southerly flow across the Northern Plains. Given the propensity for some sites to warm faster than expected today, nudged highs up a few degrees to result in highs mostly in the low to mid 80s. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY: By early Wednesday evening, the upper low to our north along the international border drags a narrow, weakly unstable warm sector into the central Dakotas. As the upper trough axis swings in, scattered showers and weak thunderstorms are expected to develop in the central Dakotas Wednesday evening.
Considering light winds associated with incoming high pressure and today's wetting rain over the majority of the area, the potential for fog comes into question. To the north, winds will be slightly more enhanced ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front, and dewpoints will be lower, dampening the potential for fog formation. Although tomorrow will have a cool start to the morning, and despite the cold frontal passage, temperatures are expected to recover and peak in the upper 70s to low 80s. Highs will be slightly warmer than Wednesday's, and clouds will be increasing as low level warm air and moisture advection increase ahead of the next system. An upper level low pressure system centered over south central Canada will dig into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes regions as it deepens through Thursday night.
Temperatures will be warmer with more sun today and one or two degrees warmer still tomorrow.
A strong ridge of high pressure will develop over the Northern Rockies to end the week and this weekend. The high afternoon temperatures and relatively warm overnights, will result in continued mountain snowmelt, keeping area waterways running high, fast and cold through the weekend.
Moisture values remain above normal, so moderate rainfall is possible along the cold front Wednesday and Thursday afternoon/evening. By this weekend temps will begin to rise in earnest as more amplified/organized ridging develops over the western US.
Seasonable temperatures can be expected through the rest of the work week aside from Wednesday, which is cooler as a result of this evening's cold front.
313 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023 Summary: Today will be the last dry day before a cold front crosses with some rain relief from the recent dry conditions. With greenup still in process, the low RH's will pose a threat for fires to rapidly grow. Attention then turns to the main weather event of the 7 day forecast, a cold front that may bring a few non-severe thunderstorms and widespread rainfall of 0.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) This morning an upper ridge stretches from TX to the West Coast with a closed low off of Baja. This low will wobble around today and Thursday but make little eastward progression as high pressure remains over the region. Temperatures will be warmer today in the mid 80s to lower 90s increasing Thursday as 90s become more widespread. Still have decent moisture over the area and ridge not strong enough to suppress all convection especially over the mountains. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher elevations today and tonight as well as some storms may sag into the nrn CWA.
Temperatures will remain "cooler" today and Thursday as highs probably stay in the upper 80s with increased cloud cover and earlier rain chances.
Expect highs to get into the 70s and 80s before the cold front later this afternoon and evening. Two main concerns for today: Canadian wildfire smoke and an approaching cold front. And it goes hand-in-hand with the cold front as well. Smoke will be present aloft in the morning hours of Wednesday, but once the afternoon rolls around and the cold front starts sagging into our area, we will begin to see the front push the smoke down closer to the surface. Temperatures will be lower after the cold front, in the mid 50s and mid 60s for highs. 500 mb pattern will feature a NW flow over our area with an upper ridge into Idaho, Montana into Alberta.
while weak high pressure sits over southern Florida. With a predominant west-southwest flow, showers and storms will be limited along the west coast with the highest chances over the interior and east coast of Florida.
621 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023 Summary: Today will be the last dry day before a cold front crosses with some rain relief from the recent dry conditions. With greenup still in process, the low RH's will pose a threat for fires to rapidly grow. Attention then turns to the main weather event of the 7 day forecast, a cold front that may bring a few non-severe thunderstorms and widespread rainfall of 0.
Daytime highs remain warmer across the interior while coastal areas will hold near to slightly below normal highs due to the cooling influence of coastal stratus. The synoptic pattern overhead hasn't changed much: ridging over CA extending northward into the west coast of Canada as a large upper low spins over the Eastern Pacific centered about 980 miles west of the OR/CA border while a weak low is centered just off the coast of Baja California to our south. Expect highs across the interior to range from the 70s and 80s with a few spots reaching the low 90s.
As the ridge moves into South Texas tonight, significantly drier air is expected to move in with it with PWAT values dropping to as low as 1". The ridge is expected to continue building over South Texas Thursday advecting a warmer air mass into the region. With the ridge building tomorrow, slightly warmer temperatures are expected, with temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 90s across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains and mid to upper 80s along the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads.
634 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023 (Today through Thursday Night ) Upper low pressure continues over the northeast U. The upper level ridge will remain along the Gulf Coast until Thursday afternoon when it expands slightly north.
An unusually moist airmass for mid May resides over Arizona under the influence of large scale high pressure building along the West Coast. The gusty wind threat will be more of concern across the lower elevations where a deeper, dry boundary layer will promote evaporatively cooled downdrafts.
429 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023 A surface cold front sagging southeastward, along with a mid level short wave is supporting ongoing thunderstorms and will continue to support storms today.
644 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today and tonight.
609 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023 (Today) A cold front is moving south through the Tennessee Valley this morning. Overall, a cooler day is in store with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
558 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023 A surface cold front sagging southeastward, along with a mid level short wave is supporting ongoing thunderstorms and will continue to support storms today.
403 AM MDT Wed May 17 2023 Colorado remains under a ridge aloft which will persist through the short-term period. Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows moisture trapped under the ridge which will factor into the thunderstorm potential later today.
Warm and dry conditions will persist through the today under high amplitude ridging aloft. The ridge will gradually slide east, and by Thursday afternoon, the ridge axis will lie over far eastern Lake County, allowing the very broad closed low over the northeast Pacific to nudge just a bit closer to the Pacific northwest, and placing southern Oregon and far northern California under southwest flow.
Deep west to southwest flow today will keep temperatures very warm, climbing well beyond 90 degrees by this afternoon, with lows trending slightlyAVIATION warmer in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The trough axis will slide east of the region after sunrise this morning and mid-level ridging will begin to build in. Meanwhile, high pressure remains intact across the district. The combination of the frontal boundary proximity and weak high pressure in place will keep winds light and variable through the rest of the morning, turning more easterly in the afternoon and evening. Mid-level ridging continues to build tonight and into Thursday with the ridge axis shifting overhead by midday Thursday. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer over the next 36-48 hours, with daytime highs reaching the upper 80s/near 90 degrees (lower-90s near Falcon Lake, mid-80s at SPI ) today under partly cloudy skies. Expect highs a couple degrees warmer on Thursday.
648 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023 (Today and tonight) A short wave ridge will develop to our west today ahead of a closed upper low just west of the Baja Peninsula. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy tonight, with light winds and overnight lows mainly in the lower 60s.
The marine layer will keep coastal areas cooler while inland areas will have high temperatures around 10 degrees above average.
627 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023 High pressure builds in from the north today, then settles over the local area tonight night into Thursday.
(Today and tonight) A short wave ridge will develop to our west today ahead of a closed upper low just west of the Baja Peninsula. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy tonight, with light winds and overnight lows mainly in the lower 60s.
732 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Aviation --Frost/freeze possible the next few days-- A large upper level low with a corresponding trough extending through the mid Atlantic will continue to move eastward. As this system exits a high pressure system will build over the Great Lakes. The exiting cold front will allow for highs in the 60s today increasing to the low 70s tomorrow. The high pressure, clear skies and calm winds will couple with cold overnight lows to allow for a chance of patchy frost and potentially freezing temperatures mainly along and north of the US 10 corridor.
The wet microburst risk today is in the lower portion of the moderate range.
751 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) This morning an upper ridge stretches from TX to the West Coast with a closed low off of Baja. This low will wobble around today and Thursday but make little eastward progression as high pressure remains over the region. Temperatures will be warmer today in the mid 80s to lower 90s increasing Thursday as 90s become more widespread. Still have decent moisture over the area and ridge not strong enough to suppress all convection especially over the mountains. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher elevations today and tonight as well as some storms may sag into the nrn CWA.
949 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today and tonight.
Upper level ridge building over Western Washington today.
As of 3 AM, the back door cold front was pushed through Cedar Rapids and Iowa City and was approaching Burlington. It was bringing cooler temperatures on briefly gusty NE winds of mainly 10 to 20 MPH. Today, Canadian wildfire smoke will filter the sunshine as the cold front stalls out in central and southeast IA. Winds will diminish overnight with lows in the low to mid 40s NE and upper 40s to low 50s SW.
542 AM MDT Wed May 17 2023 Colorado remains under a ridge aloft which will persist through the short-term period. Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows moisture trapped under the ridge which will factor into the thunderstorm potential later today.
1003 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023 A cold front will settle just south of the area today, with high pressure building in from the north through Thursday.
Land temperatures currently range in the lower to mid 80s with an increase up into the upper 80s expected.
- Smoke from the Canadian wildfires looks to remain over the area into Thursday/Thursday night with some potential for this to get mixed to the surface behind the cold front.
439 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Aside from a dry cold front slowly tracking through the CWA, the forecast period will remain mostly quiet. High pressure continues to remain over the Ohio Valley which has kept skies mostly clear. Clear skies and CAA behind the front will keep temperatures cooler overnight which in turn will favor fog development in the sheltered valleys. In recent model runs, models have moved the trough further north into the Tennessee Valley which would keep lingering PoP in the forecast through Thursday night.
332 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Winds diminish later this evening and during the overnight hours, leading to the potential for frost and temperatures to fall to near or below freezing over much of the area. Temperatures moderate through the end of the week before the next chance for rain arrives this weekend with a cold front crossing the region late this weekend. Models have been showing temperatures near and below freezing across the board tonight with some northern valleys touching 20 degrees. Winds take a southerly turn tomorrow afternoon setting up southwesterly flow through the end of the week as high pressure returns. Operational models and ensemble solutions remain in good agreement showing a large anticyclone exiting off the Northeast Coast late this week.
1238 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 (The rest of today ) Cloud cover continued to hold across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas at mid morning while a weak upper level trof axis was dropping southeast into the region. the weak upper trof axis will continue to move across the CWA and exit this evening. The combination of weak instability and the passing of the upper trof axis could allow for isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two to develop this afternoon.
The region will be under the influence of an upper level trough through the period, with a leading trough tracking across the area tonight before the main trough drops south out of Canada and across the Dakotas on Thursday. At the surface, a cold front currently just beginning to move over the far western part of the CWA will track across the remainder of the area tonight, and should be east of the CWA by sunrise Thursday. High pressure will drop in from the north Thursday night, reinforcing cooler air through the nighttime hours. As the front moves through tonight, there is a good chance that the smoke will get brought downward into the lower levels as is currently indicated by the RAP near surface smoke product.
259 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Winds will become light and variable under clear skies this evening, setting the stage for sub-freezing temperatures overnight.
Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the remainder of the week, mainly in the higher terrain of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona. Most of the activity has remained in the higher terrain and a few locations in the Spring Mountains and portions of the NNSS have recorded between 0. Anonymously high PWs will continue Thursday, but the latest model data suggests that the higher PWs will be shunted a bit further south and east which will keep the better shower and thunderstorms coverages across Clark, Lincoln, and Mohave County. Although isolated storms can't be ruled out over the higher terrain of Inyo, Nye, and eastern San Bernardino Counties.
and into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico while weak high pressure sits over southern Florida. This flow will favor the highest rain and storm chances over the interior and east coast of Florida each afternoon and evening.
The ridge will start to move eastward tomorrow, but not before high temperatures push into the low 90s.
However, as the trough and weak front slide to the east of the area late tonight into early tomorrow morning, conditions will begin to stabilize from west to east.
119 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 Aviation --Frost/freeze possible the next few days-- A large upper level low with a corresponding trough extending through the mid Atlantic will continue to move eastward. As this system exits a high pressure system will build over the Great Lakes. The exiting cold front will allow for highs in the 60s today increasing to the low 70s tomorrow. The high pressure, clear skies and calm winds will couple with cold overnight lows to allow for a chance of patchy frost and potentially freezing temperatures mainly along and north of the US 10 corridor.
1232 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 (Today through Thursday Night ) Upper low pressure continues over the northeast U. The upper level ridge will remain along the Gulf Coast until Thursday afternoon when it expands slightly north.
The trough axis will slide east of the region after sunrise this morning and mid-level ridging will begin to build in. Meanwhile, high pressure remains intact across the district. The combination of the frontal boundary proximity and weak high pressure in place will keep winds light and variable through the rest of the morning, turning more easterly in the afternoon and evening. Mid-level ridging continues to build tonight and into Thursday with the ridge axis shifting overhead by midday Thursday. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer over the next 36-48 hours, with daytime highs reaching the upper 80s/near 90 degrees (lower-90s near Falcon Lake, mid-80s at SPI) today under partly cloudy skies. Expect highs a couple degrees warmer on Thursday.
108 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today and tonight.
This afternoon, still more showers and thunderstorms are forecast as a weak upper level low with a series of embedded vort maxes moves southeast across the area. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this morning increasing to scattered coverage over the mountains this afternoon with isolated cells in the lower valleys.
Overnight cloudiness will keep temperatures mild for low and clearing during the late morning on Thu should keep the warmer than normal temperatures going.
147 PM MDT Wed May 17 2023 Deep upper low over south central Canada was slowly dropping southeast toward northern Minnesota. This northerly flow pushed a cold front through southern Montana and northern Wyoming this morning.
352 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023 High pressure will build in from the north tonight after one last front moves south across the region.
Tomorrow should be as pleasant as today with light winds, low humidity, and near normal temperatures for mid-May in the low-mid 70s. Perhaps a couple of degrees warmer, but with mean ridging being weak and low-level flow/advection of any consequence still being confined to our west, it shouldn't be more than a couple degrees difference compared to today.
153 PM MDT Wed May 17 2023 As I write this around noon, radar is beginning to light up with a scattering of showers and thunderstorms across the area as a cold front sags slowly southward across the state. However, with a slow moving trough continuing to swing through showers and even isolated thunderstorms will likely linger into the evening and even overnight hours. Thursday will be cooler and unsettled day with another scattering of showers and thunderstorms as the trough will still be slowly moving across the Cowboy State. Temperatures should average around 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday.