Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Brief high pressure will build into the area Saturday.
717 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a mid-level ridge extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley to eastern Hudson Bay. At the sfc, associated high pres ridge extends from IL across Upper MI to James Bay. Ridging from the mid-levels down to the sfc will prevail today.
636 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper trough is leading to overnight cloud cover across portions of the South Plains and will likely keep temperatures near 70 into the morning. The aforementioned trough axis will shift eastward across the Rockies by the afternoon. This in combination with a slightly upstream trough axis may provide enough forcing to break the cap and initiate supercell development, with greatest threats being large hail and damaging winds. However, the trough itself is rather shallow and associated omega values are unimpressive.
210 AM PDT Sat Jun 17 2023 It will be sunny and warmer today, even along the coast, once the marine clouds burn away. Some cooling will begin on Sunday, as onshore flow strengthens ahead of a developing trough.
From synopsis, ridging over the northwest Bahamas and Straits of Florida will result in gentle mainly southwesterly breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the weekend.
Current temperatures are in the lower/mid 60s and are forecast to rise into the upper 80s/lower 90s this afternoon.
Tonight with the showers/storms in the area, will likely hold temps up in the lower/mid 60s.
The upper trough progged to hold over the southeast U.
Otherwise, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will maintain light winds and mainly clear skies through the TAF period. With an upper level ridge axis building into the Central Great Lakes over the Weekend, there does not look to be a whole lot of concern with cloud cover with the general subsidence regime and mean 1000- 500 MB RH mainly under 40 percent. A strong upper level ridge center will then build over/around Lake Superiors by mid week, with 500 MB heights in excess of 590 DAM.
High pressure centered near Chicago will continue to provide us with a pleasant summer day today with a light east/northeast breeze and afternoon temperatures in the lower and middle 80s. Dry weather continues today and tonight as high pressure at the surface and aloft controls the region. In addition, the overall haze from wildfire smoke won't be quite as prevalent as yesterday, and that may also contribute to slightly warmer temps today.
218 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Bottom line up front: The main weather story over the next several days will be a developing trof across the western CONUS and a corresponding SSW-NNE oriented ridge from the Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Upper trof will dig from BC to the Pacific NW states tomorrow. As it does so, downstream ridge will slowly amplify from near the Four Corners region toward the Dakotas. Lee cyclogenesis over the northern Rockies will lead to strengthening low-level southerlies over the High Plains, contributing to the development and northward advection of a thermal ridge.
Low pressure will develop across the region and then prevail into late week. Surface analysis shows that a cold front is likely positioned right along the northern edge of the forecast area or maybe a tad further south closer to KCHS. The cold front will continue to sag to the south as the day progresses. Aloft the region will remain within the southern periphery of broad troughing. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90, except cooler at the beaches.
Hot and dry weather returns for the work week with relief in the form of a cold front not projected to arrive till later in the week. Upper level ridging is retreating this afternoon as an upper level low crosses ND. This will likely continue as the low level jet begins to ramp up across western MN by 21Z. A compact low pressure system is projected to enter southern MN in the morning and slide northeast through the day.
The forecast of 10-15 degrees warmer with no PoPs for Sunday looks good, though there could be some weak convection and maybe some sprinkles over the mountains mid to late afternoon. Colorado will spend most of the period between upper level troughing to our northwest and ridging to our south and southeast. There will be persistent and generally increasing southwesterly flow aloft as those features intensify, promoting drier and warmer weather than in recent weeks.
Working against its progression is the current upstream ridge high pressure system over the Ohio Valley. The high should keep any precipitation from reaching central Indiana before dusk on Sunday, with the only noticeable impact being an increase in mid-level cloud cover. The low will also aid in shifting low levels winds towards southwesterly, pushing a slightly warmer airmass into the region. Meanwhile, upper ridging will elongate from Texas into the upper Great Lakes which will both help to push the low southward and prompt dry and stable conditions for the latter half of the work week.
318 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 A drier and cooler northerly flow will bring a pleasant end to the weekend. After a cool start, Sunday will feature warmer temperatures with continued comfortable humidity. Overall, as the very persistent eastern Canadian upper low shifts into the northwestern Atlantic, heights will build over PA.
The upper level ridge will remain in place along with the oppressive humidity. In this case, with the 500 mb ridge parked over the western part of state, we will again experience temperatures and dewpoints that will push our heat indices over 115F for most of the forecast area, except the coastal zones.
In the meantime, upslope flow behind the front will continue this afternoon and evening, particularly for the high plains of Colorado into western Kansas. As a result of this flow, afternoon storms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of Colorado. Here, higher MUCAPE will be possible in association with the higher dews.
The Florida Keys remain wedged between two mid to upper level ridges.
Latest GOES WV Imagery shows an upper-level low spinning over northern North Dakota with drier air south of the low and across most of the western CONUS.
1210 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 A much drier and somewhat cooler northerly flow in the wake of surface and upper level low pressure over the New England states will bring us morning clouds then increasing afternoon sunshine today. Sunday will feature slightly warmer temperatures with continued comfortable humidity. Overall, as the very persistent eastern Canadian upper low shifts into the northwestern Atlantic, heights will build over PA.
254 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 High pressure will build down into and over the region for today through Sunday.
An unsettled pattern persists and we will likely see much of the same activity we have observed the past few days as an upper ridge over Texas is helping to steer embedded disturbances towards our area.
The average date for the first daily low temperature of 70 degrees or warmer, using the past 30 years of data, is May 23 at Louisville, May 29 at Bowling Green, and June 9 at Lexington. High clouds will increase tomorrow as robust convection advances from the Ozarks to the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of an upper trough.
140 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 High pressure will build down into and over the region for today through Sunday.
Tonight, the current upper level trough will move out and leave us in 'no man's land' between a ridge to our south and a trough to our west/northwest centered over the Pacific Northwest. Lower level winds will be from the south advecting much warmer temperatures into the region. Expect temperatures Sunday to be 5-10 degrees warmer than today, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, perhaps reaching 90 around and west of the Missouri River. As the trough starts to move towards the region Sunday afternoon/evening, winds could gust as high as 40 mph in west river counties, closer to 35 mph east of the Missouri.
122 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 A much drier and somewhat cooler northerly flow in the wake of surface and upper level low pressure over the New England states will bring us morning clouds then increasing afternoon sunshine today. Sunday will feature slightly warmer temperatures with continued comfortable humidity. Overall, as the very persistent eastern Canadian upper low shifts into the northwestern Atlantic, heights will build over PA.
(This evening through Sunday) A weak ridge and high pressure will be over the region tonight through tomorrow morning. Tomorrow afternoon a weak trough will creep towards the region bringing increasing rain chances mainly after this forecast period.
1249 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 VFR conditions are expected with high pressure providing dry low level conditions. With an upper level ridge axis building into the Central Great Lakes over the Weekend, there does not look to be a whole lot of concern with cloud cover with the general subsidence regime and mean 1000- 500 MB RH mainly under 40 percent. A strong upper level ridge center will then build over/around Lake Superiors by mid week, with 500 MB heights in excess of 590 DAM.
Temperatures are already in the 80s for interior Chicagoland, including O'Hare, while a light northeasterly wind is keeping the shoreline in the low 70s, with upper 60s along the northern lakefront near Wisconsin. The 500 mb ridge axis slides southeastward the daytime hours, but slow enough that temperatures for the interior portions of Illinois climb back into the low-to-mid 80s. Current thinking is that the center of the low will track through St. Best chances for thunder (less than 30 percent) to develop from this system will be for areas in our west and southern portions of the CWA that are closest to the low.
However, the weak back door cold front that brought the much drier air to the region has begun to wash out, so have noticed that surface dewpoints are slowly rising in western portions of our forecast this afternoon.
There is also a risk for tornadoes as the low-level jet strengthens this evening. At the surface, a diffuse boundary/effective warm front is slowly advancing northward across Oklahoma and a dryline is tightening across the Texas panhandle. 2) The effective warm front/retreating boundary ahead of the MCS will be an additional focus for convection.
1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper trough is leading to overnight cloud cover across portions of the South Plains and will likely keep temperatures near 70 into the morning. The aforementioned trough axis will shift eastward across the Rockies by the afternoon. This in combination with a slightly upstream trough axis may provide enough forcing to break the cap and initiate supercell development, with greatest threats being large hail and damaging winds. However, the trough itself is rather shallow and associated omega values are unimpressive.
RH values will drop to the lower to mid 20s across the northern zones where dry conditions in the jack pine forest areas will have to be monitored for fire weather potential. Aloft, a building ridge from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes will hover overhead and as heights rise, so will surface temperatures.
After sunset, a cold front will cross the region, bringing back more persistent rainfall for Sunday. As the cold front passes, winds out of the west-southwest will increase and create choppy lake conditions on Flathead Lake and other area lakes.
Overnight temps also look to again fall mainly into the lower/mid 60s for most spots.
1255 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and slightly above normal temperatures to the Midsouth this afternoon. The fair weather will be short-lived, however, as the upper level ridge lifts off to the east tonight. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop Sunday, in advance of an upper level low pressure system lifting out of the Great Plains.
Latest timing: still around 6 to 8 pm on the CO/KS line, 8 to 10 pm along the Highway 283 corridor, and 10 pm to midnight across the easter zones. In the meantime, upslope flow behind the front will continue this afternoon and evening, particularly for the high plains of Colorado into western Kansas. As a result of this flow, afternoon storms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of Colorado. Here, higher MUCAPE will be possible in association with the higher dews.
Sunday morning will bring the leading edge of a pattern change across the northern Rockies, as a large trough drops into the PacNW and stalls in that region. Moisture will bump against the higher mountain ranges and develop scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, which will sweep to the northwest. This moisture will have trouble getting east of the Divide, so most of the Bighorn Basin, Wind River Basin, and the I-25 corridor will remain dry and warmer, with highs well into the 80s. The midlevel trough will also drag a front into the region late Sunday, so gradient head of the front during the day Sunday will be much tighter, resulting in high winds for most of western and central Wyoming.
1208 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 (Rest of Today) Weak frontal boundary is located along the AL/TN state border this Sat morning, as temps begin to rebound into the 70s from their earlier lows in the lower/mid 60s.
1245 PM PDT Sat Jun 17 2023 High temperatures today in the San Joaquin Valley will be in the high 90s, five degrees warmer than normal.
A weak cold front will drop south through the forecast area late tonight shifting winds to the north. Upper-level ridging will begin to expand over the forecast area on Sunday with the ridge axis remaining to our west.
920 AM PDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Warmer conditions today with low clouds clearing earlier than the past few days. Cooler conditions Sunday, with increased winds from the desert mountain slopes into the deserts and increased cloud coverage.
Low pressure will develop across the region and then prevail into late week. Dew points will remain in the low to mid 60s across the region.
234 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Dry through the weekend as high pressure crosses. A slow moving upper level low brings the chance for showers and thunderstorms back for much of the new work week, depending upon where it moves. Haze is expected to clear out of the region by Sunday as the upper- level pattern changes with a trough approaching from the west. A picture-perfect day is expected for Sunday with a strengthening ridge aloft. Expect wall-to-wall sunshine and temperatures reaching the middle 80s for the lowlands and the lower 80s for the mountains. High pressure slides off to the east allowing an upper low to encroach on our area.
Doe Lake and Highbridge RAWS sites are the primary exceptions with RH values of 11% and 18% at 18Z, respectively. Warm and dry conditions settle in for most of the forecast period with high pressure in place.
500mb analysis continues to show the presence of a robust midlevel ridge centered just to our SW, as elevated H500 values in excess of 590dam remain in place over the area.
As noted previously, RH values will drop to the lower to mid 20s across the northern zones where dry conditions in the jack pine forest areas will have to be monitored for fire weather potential.
3" combined with weak mid level trough passage is responsible for the lift. Tomorrow more sun especially for the Red River valley and points west with temps climbing into the low to mid 80s, and a bit cooler to the east with clouds lingering along with isolated showers in the MN forests and lakes.
Expect dry conditions and cooler temperatures to return by Sunday afternoon. As far as temperatures go, expect a notable cool off with our Sunday afternoon highs only reaching around 80 (10 degrees cooler than Saturday).
Precipitation coverage will increase today with a combination of daytime heating and added lift as an upper trough pushes into the Pac NW.
135 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a mid-level ridge extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley to eastern Hudson Bay. At the sfc, associated high pres ridge extends from IL across Upper MI to James Bay. Ridging from the mid-levels down to the sfc will prevail today.
349 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 High pressure will remain across the region into Sunday night. Slow moving low pressure will pass south of the region during the early part of the week bringing the next chance of rain. High pressure will result in light and variable winds. The center of the high will move further east but its influence will persist. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Anomalous upper level ridging builds across the upper Midwest and Hudson Bay region for the work week. Simultaneously, a weak upper level cutoff low is forecast to form south of the ridge near or south of the Tennessee Valley.
248 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 (Issued 248 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023) Tonight through Sunday night: High pressure will slowly move east tonight into Sunday night. Temperatures should warm into the lower 80s inland, with east to southeast winds keeping 70s near the lake.
Warmer and mostly dry next work week. Water vapor imagery showed an upper-level trough axis centered over Colorado early this afternoon. The most widespread coverage looks to be along and east of the Highway 65 corridor, with the activity being more scattered in nature to the west. Temperatures Sunday will be a bit cooler, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
A dry cold front will continue to make its way through the area this evening, producing increased cloudiness, gusty winds, and noticeably cooler temperatures. The main precipitation event will hold off until the upper level low slowly swings inland.
946 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 An area of low pressure will drift to the northeast towards the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday.
RAH (Issued 248 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023) Tonight through Sunday night: High pressure will slowly move east tonight into Sunday night. Temperatures should warm into the lower 80s inland, with east to southeast winds keeping 70s near the lake.
433 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Bottom line up front: The main weather story over the next several days will be a developing trof across the western CONUS and a corresponding SSW-NNE oriented ridge from the Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Upper trof will dig from BC to the Pacific NW states tomorrow. As it does so, downstream ridge will slowly amplify from near the Four Corners region toward the Dakotas. Lee cyclogenesis over the northern Rockies will lead to strengthening low-level southerlies over the High Plains, contributing to the development and northward advection of a thermal ridge.
Water vapor imagery showing upper trof axis over Eastern Colorado with drying and subsident airmass moving into central Colorado. The forecast of 10-15 degrees warmer with no PoPs for Sunday looks good, though there could be some weak convection and maybe some sprinkles over the mountains mid to late afternoon. Colorado will spend most of the period between upper level troughing to our northwest and ridging to our south and southeast. There will be persistent and generally increasing southwesterly flow aloft as those features intensify, promoting drier and warmer weather than in recent weeks.
Low pressure will develop across the region and then prevail into late week. Overnight low temperatures were nudged up by a degree or so, mainly along the coast, where it will dip into the low 70s.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Key Messages: -Few Strong to Severe Storms West and Central Tonight; Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible -Additional Scattered Showers and Storms Tomorrow South and East -Quiet and Mostly Dry Through the Beginning of the Week H500 ridging resides overhead but a relatively active afternoon and evening is in store as a better forcing along an MCV makes it's way towards the area. Surface winds will also begin to back, increasing the low level shear and vorticity in the western half of the state. The environment also isn't overly favorable for the development of strong mesocyclones, so not expecting much of a supercellular tornado threat. Although this blocking pattern is in place, NBM looks to be struggling with varying precipitation chances in the long range guidance.
Little to update for the evening update as high pressure remains the dominant feature over the region.
721 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 An area of low pressure will drift to the northeast towards the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday.
1100 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 High pressure will build down into and over the region for today through Sunday.
734 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 A drier and cooler northerly flow will bring a pleasant end to the weekend. After a cool start, Sunday will feature warmer temperatures with continued comfortable humidity. Overall, as the very persistent eastern Canadian upper low shifts into the northwestern Atlantic, heights will build over PA.
Showers and storms possible through the weekend with W/SW flow continuing through the period as an upper low sits over the SE US.
Scattered light rain showers are spreading across southwest Idaho and in Malheur County, OR as the upper level trough begins to enter the Pacific Northwest. Showers will become heavier very early Sunday morning as a cold front moves through the northern region of our CWA. Showers will be possible ahead of a cold front through 04Z, then a more focused chance along the front is expected from 08-12Z.
935 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Upper and surface ridging across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians overnight through much of Sunday. (This evening through Sunday) A weak ridge and high pressure will be over the region tonight through tomorrow morning. Tomorrow afternoon a weak trough will creep towards the region bringing increasing rain chances mainly after this forecast period.
This line is running into a large area of DCAPE, so expect the high wind threat to continue for the next few hours. In the meantime, upslope flow behind the front will continue this afternoon and evening, particularly for the high plains of Colorado into western Kansas. As a result of this flow, afternoon storms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of Colorado. Here, higher MUCAPE will be possible in association with the higher dews.
729 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 (This evening through Sunday) A weak ridge and high pressure will be over the region tonight through tomorrow morning. Tomorrow afternoon a weak trough will creep towards the region bringing increasing rain chances mainly after this forecast period.
Southwest flow aloft is set to linger through the forecast period with a trough/low center over Pacific NW and associated trough axis remaining to the west while gradually a high strengthens over Mexico.
942 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 High pressure will remain across the region into Sunday night. Slow moving low pressure will pass south of the region during the early part of the week bringing the next chance of rain. High pressure will lead to light winds and mostly clear skies overnight. The center of the high will move further east but its influence will persist. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Anomalous upper level ridging builds across the upper Midwest and Hudson Bay region for the work week. Simultaneously, a weak upper level cutoff low is forecast to form south of the ridge near or south of the Tennessee Valley.
2) Dry and warmer Sunday. Upper trough crossing the state this afternoon, with line of strong to severe storms swinging eastward across the plains. On Sunday, upper ridge begins to build with drier air spreading into srn CO under swly flow aloft. Suppose there will be enough residual moisture for some cumulus buildups over the higher terrain, but doubt there will be enough instability to generate precip, so will run with a dry forecast area-wide.