Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently, a flat ridge remains in place in the upper levels, with copious mid and upper level clouds streaming over the area. The ridge will transition into zonal flow today, resulting in continued dry weather, and warm temperatures. The workweek will start much warmer than normal, even approaching record highs.
As the day progresses, look for the gradual thinning of this cloud cover and rapidly warming temps averaging in the lower 80s for afternoon highs. By tonight and into Tuesday, weak ridging aloft will build back across the region and further reinforce the increasing warm air advection.
It is cooler along the Canadian border in North Dakota (32 to 34 degrees), so precipitation type is still a question mark with this area. Expected fog to form along/north of the highway 200 corridor, and that is pretty much where it did. Like the current system, it will be warmer across the snow free areas, so it should mainly be liquid there. The question will be for the cooler areas that still have some snow on the ground. For now will keep it as a rain/snow mix, and see if there is a freezing drizzle/freezing rain signal with later model runs.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across Western Washington into Tuesday as a broad trough of pressure gradually shifts onshore.
This morning will show some patchy fog in locations where water sources got warm enough yesterday that it could cause very localized dew pt temps to rise, this is mainly over shallow water marshes and wooded areas and cooler river"valleys/depressions".
343 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 Today: Mid-level ridge axis is centered over the northern Gulf Coast near the TX/LA border & will build E-SE & flatten into the aftn. Warm thermal profiles will support continued moderating highs some 5-10 degrees above normal in the low 80s. This will keep southerly return flow & lows some 5-10 degrees above normal in the low 50s east to mid-upper 50s northwest of the Natchez Trace.
Later today a cold front will cross the forecast area. Temperatures will trend cooler during the midweek period as highs will be in the 40s and 50s with lows in the teens and 20s. For today, an upper level low pressure system will move into the Pacific Northwest through today. By tonight, a cold front will progress to the southeast. This will bring cooler air to the south. The cold front is expected to have pushed east of the area Tuesday morning. A general two to four inches are expected in the higher elevations above 8000 feet with about a half inch or less in the valleys.
Meanwhile, temperatures are in the lower 70s. For now the Keys will remain between a departing trough just off the southeast U. Although it will not be successful, it will tug on anticyclone over the southeast U.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) We'll remain under zonal flow aloft today with an upper trough moving into the Great Lakes region, and clouds should clear to give us a sunny afternoon. This will continue into the overnight hours where despite clear skies and light winds, low temperatures will remain above normal in the low to mid 50s.
Key Message: * Breezy with temperatures about 15 to 20 degrees above normal Partly to mostly cloudy skies were common across the area early this morning as a warm front was lifting through the area and a cold front was approaching from the west. Today, the cold front will slowly traverse the area. Normal highs are in the low to mid 50s.
856 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure will extend across the region this week.
That means rain and snow showers across the west and drier and somewhat warmer weather East of the Divide. A trailing cold front will pass later tonight, lowering snow levels to the valley floors. The front will move across the entire area on Tuesday, starting a pattern of cooler temperatures for all areas. As for East of the Divide, there will be a scattering of showers but all models are showing limited moisture so we kept POPs and QPF on the low side.
534 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure will cover much of the eastern United States today, while a low pressure system crosses the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, leaving a cold front draped across the Ohio Valley by Tuesday.
Snow levels decrease today into Tuesday, lowering to 5000-6000 feet, allowing for snow accumulations at the higher elevations and light accumulations at pass level. 50 with snow amounts up to 6 to 10 inches at the highest elevations.
205 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 Winds will diminish and temperatures will trend slightly cooler behind a cold front tonight into tomorrow.
903 AM PST Mon Nov 6 2023 After a foggy morning along the coast, fair and cooler weather is on tap for today, along with recovering humidity.
1226 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure will cover much of the eastern United States today, while a low pressure system crosses the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, leaving a cold front draped across the Ohio Valley by Tuesday.
Dry through tomorrow with temperatures continuing to trend warmer. Thinking was that minimum RH's this afternoon would be a bit lower compared to yesterday, but they are actually warmer than forecast - a good thing for fire weather purposes.
310 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure will extend across the region this week.
Meanwhile, a cold front is approaching the area seated just northwest of the CWA early this afternoon. The cooler air moving in behind the front should help to cut off those gusts likely by mid-evening. In the wake of the front, highs tomorrow will drop as low as the lower 50s near the IL/WI state line to the lower 60s closer to central IL. Tuesday night, a warm front approaching from the southwest may produce some scattered overnight showers.
310 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 A cold front will bring a few showers and gusty wind to the area tonight and early Tuesday as it crosses the region.
308 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 A weak cold front will slide south across the area later tonight through Tuesday.
Temperatures have warmed into the 50s in the lower valleys and snow remains limited at this time to areas above 7500 ft or so. Despite the increased sunshine though, temperatures will run 7-10 cooler than Monday highs. High pressure dominates by Thu afternoon and continues into Fri morning. Overall, there is little straying now from climatic averages for the lows and highs, which means lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s for the Snake River plain locations, single digits and teens for lows and 35 to 45 in the mountains and highlands. Strongest wind should accompany the low on Fri and Sat.
110 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure will cover much of the eastern United States today, while a low pressure system crosses the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, leaving a cold front draped across the Ohio Valley by Tuesday.
1150 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 Today: Mid-level ridge axis is centered over the northern Gulf Coast near the TX/LA border & will build E-SE & flatten into the aftn. Warm thermal profiles will support continued moderating highs some 5-10 degrees above normal in the low 80s. This will keep southerly return flow & lows some 5-10 degrees above normal in the low 50s east to mid-upper 50s northwest of the Natchez Trace.
This will still put temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s.
Afternoon breezes 15 to 20 mph at the coast will abate with nightfall, as high pressure steadily shifts seaward overnight. Some patchy ground fog wl be possible in the cooler northern inland areas by daybreak.
232 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 Dry high pressure will continue over the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia through most of the week.
Gusty southwest winds are also expected to increase ahead of an approaching trough from the west. Overnight lows should run a few degrees warmer tonight than last night, especially in areas where the winds keep up. Sub-freezing temperatures will still remain a possibility though in the typically cooler and more sheltered locations.
229 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 Dry high pressure will continue over the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia through most of the week.
Overall the highest probability is for liquid precipitation, but temperatures could support freezing rain briefly mainly near the Canadian border on Tuesday morning.
At 8 AM MST the main Pacific upper low was just off the WA coast at 46/127 and moving east. Showers will be mainly in central and south-central Idaho tonight, then fewer showers Tuesday as the Pacific upper trough comes inland.
These clouds will be pushed east today as an upper ridge slides across the state. Behind the ridge, a frontal system will lift northeast bringing the potential for light rain overnight and into Tuesday morning. Overall the highest probability is for liquid precipitation, but temperatures could support freezing rain briefly mainly near the Canadian border on Tuesday morning. Forecast for the remainder of the week will feature a ridge building to the west, with northwest flow keeping temperatures near normal with mostly dry conditions.
1123 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) We'll remain under zonal flow aloft today with an upper trough moving into the Great Lakes region, and clouds should clear to give us a sunny afternoon. This will continue into the overnight hours where despite clear skies and light winds, low temperatures will remain above normal in the low to mid 50s.
To our north, there is a weak cold front with a northerly wind shift located in the northern Texas Panhandle. Temperatures will be similar to slightly warmer tomorrow than today, especially across the Rolling Plains. The warm and dry airmass will result in RH values falling under 20 percent across most of the area tomorrow afternoon, and the fire danger will become elevated across the far Southern Texas Panhandle, where the low RHs will coincide with the highest winds.
Early risers this morning noted a cool start across the Florida Keys with temperatures in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the 50s. Sand Key continues to overachieve with sustained winds 19 knots and gusts in the low 20s. Thus, for the remainder of the day, mostly sunny skies, highs in the lower 80s, and nil rain chances. High pressure moving across the eastern half of the United States will support gentle to moderate northeast breezes today through Tuesday.
As we go through the week ridging will continue to dominate the forecast with humidity slowly ticking up.
302 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure over the area will shift offshore Tuesday, resulting in a return southwesterly flow taking over for the middle to latter part of the week.
Periodic showers of rain in the lower basins/valleys and snow in higher elevations (above 8000 ft) continue throughout the day today.
9 AM temperatures have risen into the low/mid 60s with light SE-S winds. Limited moisture at the lower levels could bring a few fair weather cumulus too, as high temperatures rise into the mid 70s to around 80.
Currently the elongated ridge is centered over the eastern seaboard extending from the Mid atlantic states down through S GA/N FL. This ridge will continue to strengthen becoming centered over the Northern Gulf through Mid week. Night time lows will dip down into the 40s and 50s which is about 10-15 deg warmer than last week.
Otherwise, dry weather will continue into tonight as high pressure to our east provides a light southerly flow.
1215 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure will extend across the region this week.
217 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 Key Messages: A remarkably warm and pleasant air mass continues to be found over area, but a cold front is on the way making for a challenging temperature forecast Tuesday. The forecast Tuesday is benign, but rather challenging as the cold front drops south into the I-80 corridor by morning. These clouds, along with winds turning towards the east, will provide a much cooler day in northern areas Tuesday, with highs in the lower to mid 50s.
An upper level ridge is centered over the central Gulf of Mexico and will begin to amplify over the next few days. Drought conditions will continue to worsen as highs reach the lower 80s areawide.
Water vapor imagery highlights a large mean-layer ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Strong subsidence across Florida enters the base of a mid to upper-level trough to the east of the Bahamas. Temperatures are near 80 and dewpoints have recovered into the lower 60s.
A warm front moved northward through the area bringing warm temperatures allowing for rain compared to what was previously thought that some locations may see mixed precipitation. NAM model sounding show dry air above 800 mb therefore some locations could see freezing drizzle for portions of the MN Arrowhead. If the dry air continues, it's possible that some of area may experience freezing drizzle for longer than expected as moisture may not extend into the DGZ. Currently thinking is that as the cold air filters in behind the cold front. Winds shift to the east-southeast tomorrow morning ahead of the next low pressure system. Low pressure will continue to exit to the east of Lake Superior through the day today. Winds and waves are likely to increase again on Tuesday as another low pressure enters the region.
1225 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through midweek with plenty of sunshine as high pressure dominates over the Southeast.
940 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 (Issued 940 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2023) Early morning rain has exited and stratus is beginning to scatter out as low pressure exits toward Ontario.
1023 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through midweek with plenty of sunshine as high pressure dominates over the Southeast.
249 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through midweek with plenty of sunshine as high pressure dominates over the Southeast.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) High pressure will continue to move slowly eastward from the Gulf of Mexico into the Florida Peninsula. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s over most areas, except around 70 east coast metro areas. Highs on Tuesday will be a little bit warmer due to the northeast wind flow with mid to upper 80s over most areas, except mid 80s east coast metro areas.
(Through Tuesday) Warmer temperatures are expected overnight as a few bands of upper level clouds move overhead and moistening conditions, especially across the Panhandle, lead to low temperature about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this morning. The combination of a weak seabreeze and southerly flow across a good portion of the area will allow high temperatures to climb solidly into the lower 80s.
(Through Tonight) A weak surface pressure trough/boundary currently stalled out across north central Oklahoma has kept much of the gustier winds confined to southeast Oklahoma this afternoon, with lighter winds across the northern half of the forecast area. Bowlan (Tuesday through Monday) Longwave troughing will begin to take shape over the western U. This will aid in deepening the surface cyclone across eastern Colorado and will allow the aforementioned surface boundary to surge back northward during the day tomorrow.
647 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 Winds will diminish and temperatures will trend slightly cooler behind a cold front tonight into tomorrow.
956 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 Update Secondary cold front is analyzed from Ludington to southern Wisconsin, though is becoming less distinct as clear skies ahead and clouds behind the front help to reduce the temperature gradient tonight.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to be a bit warmer than last night, and Tuesday night's lows are expected to be a bit warmer than tonight's. So the short answer is that we are likely going to have a repeat tonight that we had last night, just a little warmer and a bit more humid. Tuesday night looks similar, but the winds will be stronger, due to the approaching cold front helping to tighten up the pressure gradient.
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 A weak cold front will slide south across the area later tonight through Tuesday.
Over the lower elevations, precipitation chances will generally be between 20 and 40% with 50 to 80% for the mountains.
525 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 (Through Tonight) A weak surface pressure trough/boundary currently stalled out across north central Oklahoma has kept much of the gustier winds confined to southeast Oklahoma this afternoon, with lighter winds across the northern half of the forecast area. Bowlan (Tuesday through Monday) Longwave troughing will begin to take shape over the western U. This will aid in deepening the surface cyclone across eastern Colorado and will allow the aforementioned surface boundary to surge back northward during the day tomorrow.
Model soundings for Devils Lake area tomorrow morning show a pretty good warm layer, and freezing rain probabilities are around 40 percent. However, it does not take much freezing rain or drizzle to cause problems, and there will also be some 30 percent chances for snow.
708 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 An impressive surge of subsidence scoured out low clouds upon passage of the initial cold front this evening. Clear sky lasts until around midnight as low pressure moves farther into Quebec while pulling the primary cold front and associated clouds back across the Great Lakes. -Cooler on Tuesday with daytime temperatures approximately 5 degrees below normal.
518 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure over the area will shift offshore Tuesday, resulting in a return southwesterly flow taking over for the middle to latter part of the week.
High temperatures will be in the lower 80s each afternoon with lows in the 50s and 60s each night. A late week cold front will bring widespread rainfall and cooler temperatures to the region.
649 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 A cold front will bring a few showers and gusty wind to the area tonight and early Tuesday as it crosses the region.
628 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through midweek with plenty of sunshine as high pressure dominates over the Southeast.
(Tonight) As high pressure continues to linger to our east, southerly flow allows warm air to be advected into the TN Valley.
A cold front will move through central California tonight and bring precipitation to the area. Radar composites are showing another round of precipitation is likely across our area later this afternoon through tonight with the highest amounts in the Sierra Nevada north of Kings Canyon.
633 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 A weak cold front will slide south across the area later tonight through Tuesday.
828 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure and dry conditions continue. Currently the elongated ridge is centered over the eastern seaboard extending from the Mid atlantic states down through S GA/N FL. This ridge will continue to strengthen becoming centered over the Northern Gulf through Mid week. Night time lows will dip down into the 40s and 50s which is about 10-15 deg warmer than last week.
Key Messages: A remarkably warm and pleasant air mass continues to be found over area, but a cold front is on the way making for a challenging temperature forecast Tuesday. The forecast Tuesday is benign, but rather challenging as the cold front drops south into the I-80 corridor by morning. These clouds, along with winds turning towards the east, will provide a much cooler day in northern areas Tuesday, with highs in the lower to mid 50s.
Just slightly cooler than yesterday this afternoon (though ALS has set another record high), as mid level temps have drifted downward a degc or two. Breezy to windy again over the mountains, with some gusts 35-55 kts over/near the higher exposed terrain of the Sawatch Range. On Tuesday, mid/upper level flow bends back to more swly and result, mid level thermal ridge builds northward over the plains, increases as upper trough moves into the Great Basin.
841 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 Weak boundary stalled generally along a line from Pawnee to Copan per mesonet observations focusing calm winds and slightly cooler temps to the north. (Through Tonight) A weak surface pressure trough/boundary currently stalled out across north central Oklahoma has kept much of the gustier winds confined to southeast Oklahoma this afternoon, with lighter winds across the northern half of the forecast area. Bowlan (Tuesday through Monday) Longwave troughing will begin to take shape over the western U. This will aid in deepening the surface cyclone across eastern Colorado and will allow the aforementioned surface boundary to surge back northward during the day tomorrow.
Gusty winds have caused some blowing dust this afternoon, and fairly light showers continue in portions of northern Nevada as a cold front is currently pushing through the forecast area.
806 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure remains over the area this evening with little in the way of weather concerns aside for some patchy fog. Lows Tuesday morning will be a little warmer than today with an overall warming trend continuing for the next several days.
(Now through Tuesday) Zonal to northwesterly flow aloft is expected to persist through the period as an upper-level ridge builds over the western Gulf. At the surface, a large ridge of high pressure centered over the Appalachians begins to break down and push into the western Atlantic tonight and into tomorrow.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually dissipate overnight with briefly drier and warmer weather midweek.
630 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 (Through Tuesday) Warmer temperatures are expected overnight as a few bands of upper level clouds move overhead and moistening conditions, especially across the Panhandle, lead to low temperature about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this morning. The combination of a weak seabreeze and southerly flow across a good portion of the area will allow high temperatures to climb solidly into the lower 80s.
945 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure will extend across the region this week.
623 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 High pressure will extend across the region this week.
Dry again today with ridging and southwest flow continuing a warming trend for the region. Discussion: Ridge axis remains across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Tennessee Valley resulting in dry, mostly clear, and warming conditions for our region. This anomalous ridging and warm, dry airmass will push high temperatures near record max temperatures this afternoon. Today's records for max temperature are below: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 11-07 80(2022) 79(1996) 78(2022) 80(2022) Hazy conditions are expected in spots today with wildfires becoming more prevalent across the area over the past several days.
1049 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 Weak boundary stalled generally along a line from Pawnee to Copan per mesonet observations focusing calm winds and slightly cooler temps to the north. (Through Tonight) A weak surface pressure trough/boundary currently stalled out across north central Oklahoma has kept much of the gustier winds confined to southeast Oklahoma this afternoon, with lighter winds across the northern half of the forecast area. Bowlan (Tuesday through Monday) Longwave troughing will begin to take shape over the western U. This will aid in deepening the surface cyclone across eastern Colorado and will allow the aforementioned surface boundary to surge back northward during the day tomorrow.
124 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2023 A weak cold front will slide south across the area later tonight through Tuesday.
Temperatures will be borderline for a mix of freezing rain or light snow with this system near the Canadian Border early Tuesday morning and warm enough for all rain elsewhere in the forecast area. Overall the highest probability is for liquid precipitation, but temperatures could support freezing rain briefly mainly near the Canadian border on Tuesday morning.
1247 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2023 Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through midweek with plenty of sunshine as high pressure dominates over the Southeast.
1049 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 A weak cold front will slide south across the area later tonight through Tuesday.
1206 AM PST Tue Nov 7 2023 Light to moderate precipitation continues to fall this morning across the forecast area associated with a cold front passing through the region. A cold front continues to produce valley rain and mountain snow this morning.