Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
734 AM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023 Aviation -- Light snow possible north of Muskegon early Saturday -- High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the weekend as it settles over the Michigan/Indiana/Ohio region. This high pressure will allow for mid level drying due to a positively tilted trough that will extend through most of the Mid Atlantic and the Southern Great Lakes. The sole exception is a weak area of low pressure emanating from an upper level trough at 500 mb. This trough has just enough moisture and instability to bring clouds through northern Lower Michigan Friday night into Saturday.
205 AM PDT Fri Apr 7 2023 A trough moving across Southern California will bring scattered high clouds today and Saturday.
944 AM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023 Bands of snow continue to progress east, having exited the Highway 83 corridor recently. An upper level ridge then builds in over the region for today bringing the start of a warming trend. This combined with a weak trough aloft though could signal perhaps a drizzle or freezing drizzle potential. Decided to place in widespread patchy fog instead to help hint of the low cloud and mist/drizzle potential. Low level moisture still looks to linger through at least the day on Saturday, as an upper level trough lifts through. Synoptic lift with this trough looks overall week. There still is the potential for drizzle/freezing drizzle with these features. The southern flow from the trough should continue warming temperatures Saturday in the 30s to 40s, with 50s southwest.
524 AM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023 After chilly early morning low temperatures ranging from the upper 20s in the Illinois River Valley to the middle to upper 30s south of I-70, ample sunshine will boost afternoon highs into the lower 60s across central Illinois today. Meanwhile a thick blanket of high clouds is keeping readings in the lower 40s across the far SE KILX CWA around Flora and Lawrenceville. Given ample sunshine efficiently heating the dry airmass, high temperatures will top out near seasonal normals in the lower 60s. Surface ridging will dominate the weather across central Illinois this weekend, resulting in plenty of sunshine and warming temperatures.
A very weak cold front sweeps southeastward through our region early this morning. Behind the front, a high pressure ridge affects our region through this weekend as the core of the ridge moves from the Upper Midwest toward the Mid-Atlantic states. At the surface, a very weak and moisture- starved cold front sweeps SE'ward through our region prior to daybreak this morning. Behind the front, stabilizing high pressure ridging builds from the Upper Midwest. High temperatures should reach the lower to mid 40's in NW PA and the lower 40's to lower 50's in northern OH late this afternoon.
Another warm day is expected with near record temperatures once again as a high pressure dominates the weather pattern.
621 AM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023 Weak upper level ridging will be in place today and Saturday leading to near normal highs and below normal lows across the area.
431 AM MDT Fri Apr 7 2023 With upper ridging over the western CONUS, skies across the northern plains are mostly clear. At the surface, a trough stretches across MT, and a surface boundary sits across our CWA. Another mild and dry day is expected, as the upper ridge slides over the northern plains today.
Surface cold front has nudged about 75-100 miles further southeast than this time yesterday.
Quiet and cool conditions will continue today as high pressure over the upper Midwest drifts eastward into the Great Lakes region. Saturday, we still have zonal flow overhead and high pressure, centered near the Great Lakes, expanding south through the Ohio Valley.
The latest satellite image shows an upper trough pushing towards the coast. A cold front ahead of the upper trough is still off the coast with coastal observations showing south winds. Therefore any road snow concerns should be mainly confined to the higher passes. The upper trough will move into the area this morning, with the upper trough axis moving east of the Cascades this afternoon at which point showers will gradually diminish. Zonal flow with weak ridging is expected tonight with dry weather expected.
Key Messages: 1) Warmer with increasing winds leading to critical fire weather conditions for southern and eastern portions of the southeast The upper trough over the Desert Southwest will lift northeastward and dampening out as it ejects across NM and southern CO ahead of the next trough advancing through the western U. Temperatures today will be considerably warmer which will result in low humidities and critical fire weather conditions where the winds are strongest. A warm night is expected as the lee trough remains anchored across the I-25 corridor ahead of the next system.
445 AM MDT Fri Apr 7 2023 Updated Aviation Discussion High pressure shifts across the region today for dry and milder conditions with temperatures rising above seasonal averages.
By this evening, expect rain chances to rapidly decrease from west to east as mid level troughing fills and a more zonal flow develops tonight into Saturday. Will be a bit warmer Saturday with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s, but will keep mostly cloudy skies.
(Today through Saturday) Isolated showers and occasional rumble of thunder dot portions of north Georgia early this morning as a surface cold front has slowly made progress toward the northwestern side of the Atlanta metro. Breezy northeast winds 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph will quickly usher in a much cooler airmass as temperatures drop through the 50s and into the 40s across north Georgia by Saturday morning.
Otherwise, temperatures are already in the lower 80s across the island chain with an east to southeast. From synopsis: High pressure over the central North Atlantic will produce moderate breezes through Saturday morning. As the high relaxes and shifts east, breezes will begin to slacken.
659 AM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023 (Today through Saturday) The cold front is right now near the office at EET. With clouds and rain on Saturday, temperatures will be significantly cooler across the area.
Otherwise, dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures expected today as high pressure builds in out of the northwest. High pressure over the northeast CONUS will maintain dry conditions through the weekend.
For most, expect a mix of sun and clouds with highs reaching the low to mid 80s along the coast, closer to the upper 80s and low 90s inland.
1040 AM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023 Quiet weather today with high pressure at the surface ridging from the Great Lakes to the Red River Valley, supplying us with a cool northeast breeze. Quiet and cool conditions will continue today as high pressure over the upper Midwest drifts eastward into the Great Lakes region. Saturday, we still have zonal flow overhead and high pressure, centered near the Great Lakes, expanding south through the Ohio Valley.
646 AM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023 A cold front has pushed across the Mid-South resulting in below climatological temperatures to start the weekend. A cool and dry Easter weekend is in store as high pressure settles off to our east.
624 AM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023 A very weak cold front sweeps southeastward through our region early this morning. Behind the front, a high pressure ridge affects our region through this weekend as the core of the ridge moves from the Upper Midwest toward the Mid-Atlantic states. At the surface, a very weak and moisture-starved cold front sweeps SE'ward through our region prior to daybreak this morning. Behind the front, stabilizing high pressure ridging builds from the Upper Midwest. High temperatures should reach the lower to mid 40's in NW PA and the lower 40's to lower 50's in northern OH late this afternoon.
621 AM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023 (Today through Saturday) High pressure at the surface and west-southwesterly flow aloft persist today through Saturday.
At the surface, high pressure over the central North Atlantic has receded some to the east. Aloft, mean layer ridging has become squished in between an approaching trough across the Southeast and an upper low over Hispaniola, which has caused it to weaken across Florida. As the aforementioned trough and its associated frontal boundary approach the Florida Peninsula, the mid level ridge will slide southwest. While the ridge is transiting southwest through the weekend, it will provide one or two more days of low rain chances and well above normal temperatures.
729 AM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023 (Today through Saturday) South Florida will remain under the influence of an Atlantic high pressure system on Friday, which should allow for continued breezy easterly flow and generally dry and warm conditions. Temperatures will continue to rise to the lower 90s in interior-southwest Florida, while remaining in the low 80s across the East Coast. Conditions will begin to deteriorate on Saturday as the aforementioned high erodes under the influence of an approaching upper-level trough-cold front combo.
Meanwhile, the upper flow will shift from SW to WNW, ahead of a building western ridge. Moreover, BUFKIT soundings are showing moisture confined to 25K feet and above, and the combo of a dry column and high pressure influenced subsidence, supports only cirrus veil tonight. Northwest sections, at the edge of the cirrus shield, could even see temperatures approach freezing, especially in sheltered areas. Mixing below a 4-5K foot inversion of 2 to 5 degree Celsius temperatures support afternoon highs in the lower and mid 60s. The cold front that brought showers and thunderstorms to the region a few days ago is now settling across the southern US. However, most of the long range will be cloud-free as ridging out west amplifies significantly and drifts eastward.
Saturday, the trough and tightened gradient move to the east. Guidance differs with exactly how far east the trough will move. A Fire Weather Watch was considered but opted to hold off 1) due to the uncertainty of where the trough develops and 2) due to already ongoing CWA wide Red Flag Warning, wanted to avoid any potential confusion between a watch and warning.
(Tonight) A cold front that moved across the area yesterday was well to our south and east, extending from the Gulf coast south of New Orleans to east of Atlanta and near the NC/SC coastal border. As noted earlier, colder conditions reigned this afternoon with readings raining from the upper 40s southern middle TN, to around 50 NW AL and in the lower 60s NE AL (where the coldest air has quite made it).
10 AM temperatures ranged from 10 to over 20 degrees cooler than they were at that time yesterday. Have cooled the highs a couple of degrees this issuance.
While clouds remain across the west, the mercury has climbed towards 60 degrees, taking some of the bite out of the cooler temperatures those east of I-65 are still feeling.
Saturday given the low confidence in the HREF ensembles of the combo of RH values below 15% and winds over 25 kts I elected to hold off on a fire weather headline at this point. CAM models are also trending warmer so I added a couple degrees for highs with mid to upper 70s across the region. Lows will be in the lower to mid 40s.
Saturday will also be cool and dry with high temps in the lower 60s as a H2 trough remains over the FA.
1234 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023 Dry and stable conditions prevail through this evening as high pressure settles across the area. The exception to this will be toward the Thumb which sits further within the thermal trough, bringing 850mb temps below -10C and resultant daytime highs struggling to reach 40 degrees. As high pressure builds and organizes low level flow out of the south, frontogenesis along the gradient intensifies. Otherwise, temperatures warm up to near-normal with highs in the low to mid 50s. Looking at the upper level pattern, temperature trends start to shift with the passage of the parent upper trough latter half of Saturday.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Upper level trough axis extending from the southwest CONUS southeastward into northeast Mexico is producing a southwest flow aloft over South-Central Texas. High temperatures are forecast to come up to the 60s and 70s after a cooler pattern the past few days.
Mildest temps will be in the southwest again Saturday due to warmer conditions aloft as well as increasing sunshine by the afternoon. The clouds and onshore winds will keep it cooler north and towards the lake.
Afternoon temperatures near to just below normal will exist, as parts of northeast Oklahoma see the higher values due largely to less cloud cover.
227 PM MDT Fri Apr 7 2023 Upper ridge over the high Plains with trof over Pacific NW and extensive cloud cover west of ridge axis, while skies remain clear over forecast area. On the surface, trof/stationary front remains from northwestern MT-south central SD with southeast winds and temperatures in the 40s to the east and southwest winds and temperatures mainly in the 50s to the west, although southeast winds around the eastern-northern slopes of the Black Hills coming off deeper snowcover have kept temps lower. The inversion will persist over west central SD through Saturday, where the temperatures will remain cooler than the rest of the area. Temperatures will warm to above Mon and Tue as a thermal ridge builds over the high Plains, then a cold front moving southward on Wed will bring cooler temps.
For the rest of this afternoon most of the heavy rainfall should stay just to the west of our forecast area, but a few showers and storms may develop along the coastal areas where more of an east- southeast low level flow will bring dewpoints into the low 70s.
339 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023 High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada with diminishing winds and cold conditions tonight. Based on satellite trends and sources of guidance/ensembles, the high clouds will build east and south through the night, with clearing reaching the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT by daybreak. Highs Saturday around 50 to mid 50s and cooler in higher terrain.
1255 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023 Weak upper level ridging will be in place today and Saturday leading to near normal highs and below normal lows across the area.
A few isolated locations across the northern portions of the forecast area could still dip down to near freezing, but widespread freezing temps are not expected tonight. Bowlan (Saturday through Friday) Weak mid level trough axis that has been lingering across southern New Mexico and providing upper level cloud cover to the eastern and southern parts of the forecast area recently will slowly drift eastward by Saturday, leaving behind clear skies. The surface will still be under the influence of surface ridging as it slowly slides east as well during the day.
Mid level ridging will build over the region through Saturday, with milder temperatures, and virtually no chance for pcpn as the airmass is quite dry. Saturday night brings passage of a trof aloft, but even then chances for any measurable pcpn look scant at best.
This persistent cloud cover will moderate afternoon temperature maximums into the mid-50s and low 60s (especially where cloud cover is thinner), keeping conditions cooler than normal for this time of the year.
1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023 A cold front has pushed across the Mid-South resulting in below climatological temperatures to start the weekend. A cool and dry Easter weekend is in store as high pressure settles off to our east.
308 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023 Key Messages: - Warmer and dry weather expected this weekend.
1115 AM MDT Fri Apr 7 2023 Upper ridge is building over the northern Rockies with clear skies east of the axis. On the surface, a trof extends SEwd across northern-southeastern MT through south central SD with southerly winds across forecast area. Temps will continue to warm, although areas with deeper snowcover will stay cooler. With upper ridging over the western CONUS, skies across the northern plains are mostly clear. At the surface, a trough stretches across MT, and a surface boundary sits across our CWA. Another mild and dry day is expected, as the upper ridge slides over the northern plains today.
This is due to increasing instability ahead of an upper level trough approaching the region. We may see some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the next several hours, spreading east before ending around midnight as the trough axis moves into Texas. Current easterly winds will become more southeasterly overnight advecting in slightly warmer temperatures overnight and into tomorrow, making for an absolutely gorgeous Saturday for spending outdoors.
With winds out of the south though, temperatures will be warmer with most locations warming back into the low to mid 70s under partly cloudy skies.
106 PM PDT Fri Apr 7 2023 A weak trough will move over the West Coast though Saturday, with patchy clouds at times, and slight cooling.
Any moisture with this wave will be wrung out by the Continental Divide, but this push of air should be enough to give the Chinooks the winning edge and allow warmer air to push east.
Lows tonight will again be cold with lows in the lower 30s, bringing some surface frost once again. On Saturday, high amplitude upper level ridging over the northern midwest into central Canada will begin to move into the Great Lakes region. This will keep dry skies and also allow for synoptic warming bringing warmer temperatures to the area beginning this weekend with Saturdays highs from the mid 50s in the northeast parts of the CWA and along Lake Michigan where it could be just a tad cooler, to the mid 60s for our southwestern portions of the CWA.
307 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023 High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada with diminishing winds and cold conditions tonight. Tonight the winds should diminish with a weakening pressure gradient and a stabilizing boundary layer, as high pressure builds in.
Saturday night low temps will reach the lower to mid 60s for most locations.
Most of the area has made it into the lower and middle 50s as we now approach the mid-afternoon. Luckily, those temperatures will climb quickly through the morning with just about the whole area expected to reach the lower 60s in the afternoon. The continued onshore flow will once again keep locales near the lake a few degrees cooler than inland areas.
However, some light and short lived showers were able to develop through the morning hours along boundaries due to available moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere. ; Aloft, a mid level ridge is located west of the Florida Keys. At the same time the mid level ridge continues to moves southwest due to the previously mentioned trough moving south and the upper level low moving west.
220 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023 High pressure over the Great Lakes allows for mostly sunny skies this weekend with high temperatures only a degree or two below normal. Overnight lows drop to the low 30s in the north, upper 30s in the south. High pressure slowly moving off toward New England, but remains the dominant weather influencer for the area. Mass subsidence and dry air in the low levels combine to keep Saturday mostly sunny, with perhaps a few high clouds. The high will get shunted eastwards as a subtropical low moves into the Gulf Coast late in the week. While this low will stay well south of the area, moisture from it will likely get drawn into the Ohio Valley.
Saturday will be cooler than past couple of days but will also be the start of our next warm up to some of the warmest temperatures this season.
237 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023 Through Saturday: A cold front which has been festering over the region for days will finally begin to make better southward progress tonight into Saturday, with an end to the rain finally in sight.
Discussion: We start the period with a slow moving surface cold front just to our southeast. The upper flow is currently from the SW but will become more zonal during the period, and the cold front will gradually sag farther southeast.
A warmer low level air mass is expected to arrive ahead of the front, starting a gradual warming trend.
306 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023 High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada with diminishing winds and cold conditions tonight. Tonight the winds should diminish with a weakening pressure gradient and a stabilizing boundary layer, as high pressure builds in.
1002 AM MDT Fri Apr 7 2023 Upper ridge is building over the northern Rockies with clear skies east of the axis. On the surface, a trof extends SEwd across northern-southeastern MT through south central SD with southerly winds across forecast area. Temps will continue to warm, although areas with deeper snowcover will stay cooler. With upper ridging over the western CONUS, skies across the northern plains are mostly clear. At the surface, a trough stretches across MT, and a surface boundary sits across our CWA. Another mild and dry day is expected, as the upper ridge slides over the northern plains today.
Broad and deep subsidence over the region maintains cloud- free skies and allows high pressure to continue building in through the rest of this evening. Wind remains very light, veering from north to southeast as the center of the high passes just to our north. The absence of northerly flow will allow temps to take a step upward with highs mainly in the lower 50s - cooler readings near the lakeshore.
Quiet weather today with high pressure at the surface ridging from the Great Lakes to the Red River Valley, supplying us with a cool northeast breeze. Quiet and cool conditions will continue today as high pressure over the upper Midwest drifts eastward into the Great Lakes region. Saturday, we still have zonal flow overhead and high pressure, centered near the Great Lakes, expanding south through the Ohio Valley.
18z surface analysis showed very broad high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, with southerly winds occasionally gusting around 20 MPH. 18z surface analysis showed very broad high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, with southerly winds occasionally gusting around 20 MPH. 18z surface analysis showed very broad high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, with southerly winds occasionally gusting around 20 MPH. Temperatures are also expected to remain above freezing at night.
Convective showers and possible thunderstorms will develop behind the band under the trough axis this afternoon. Temperatures will be a little cooler today but will warm to near normal on Saturday.
832 AM PDT Fri Apr 7 2023 A trough will move over the West Coast though Saturday, with patchy clouds at times, and slight cooling.
350 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023 High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada with diminishing winds and cold conditions tonight. Based on satellite trends and sources of guidance/ensembles, the high clouds will build east and south through the night, with clearing reaching the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT by daybreak. Highs Saturday around 50 to mid 50s and cooler in higher terrain.
(This evening through Saturday Night) Rain chances finally diminish for the Four State Region as Easter weekend begins, however, cloud cover will maintain slightly cooler than average conditions. By tomorrow, temperature maximums will reach the low 70s as rain completely ends and some daytime heating (not all) reaches through the cloud decks to the surface.
239 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023 Aviation -- Light snow possible north of Muskegon early Saturday -- High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the weekend as it settles over the Michigan/Indiana/Ohio region. This high pressure will allow for mid level drying due to a positively tilted trough that will extend through most of the Mid Atlantic and the Southern Great Lakes. The sole exception is a weak area of low pressure emanating from an upper level trough at 500 mb. This trough has just enough moisture and instability to bring clouds through northern Lower Michigan Friday night into Saturday.
Downslope and a warmer air mass will still push highs into the 50s to lower 60s on the plains tomorrow.
157 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023 Weak mid/upper level ridging over the Rockies today is progged to translate downstream over the central CONUS on Saturday.