Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Discussion: High pressure at the surface and aloft continues to sit over the Mid Atlantic today. High pressure will slowly drift westward into Michigan by 00 UTC on Friday.
Large area of stagnant high pressure continues to hold over much of the eastern US this afternoon. Building diurnal instability and some increase in low level moisture on the back side of the ridge axis has lead to the development of widely scattered showers/isold thunderstorms across much of Northern Lower Michigan as expected. The the upper level ridge retrogrades westward and becomes centered across the western Great Lakes region Thursday into Friday.
133 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.
This activity is related to an upper level low pressure area in our vicinity, that is forecast to move east.
432 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Dry and very warm weather will continue throughout the end of the work week due to pesky high pressure overhead.
Despite the instability, shear is rather weak as bulk shear values are only around 10 knots along with very high bases to the thunderstorms as soundings show an inverted V in the lowest levels.
1238 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) The mid to upper-level ridge will continue to moves eastward with the ridge axis expected to be over the region late tonight into tomorrow morning. However, due to areas of vorticity in the lower levels moving over the area tomorrow, a stray shower or two can't be ruled out over the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads during the afternoon hours.
1002 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023 19z surface analysis had weak trough from central ND to southeast WY with lee trough from central MT to southeast WY. Main upper low over western AZ. Surface boundary intersecting the Black Hills/lee trough focusing weak convection per regional radar loop.
Friday, more widespread convection is expected as a deep trough over the western U. Lower heights from the arriving trough decrease highs further Friday with only the Pecos River and Rio Grande valleys able to get out of the 80s.
Above normal temperatures will continue through the remainder of the forecast period, with daily highs in the mid to upper 80s, reaching the low 90s over the weekend, mainly over the eastern Ozarks and into central Missouri.
Western portions of the local area look to be downstream of convective remnants/possible MCV moving northeast out of southwest Kansas in the late morning to mid-afternoon and have carried the highest PoPs there.
While not a true wedge front, we still remain under the influence of cooler dry air filtering down from the spine of the east side of the Appalachians while a Low in the gulf that's trying to get it's act together reinforces the easterly flow. What does that mean for us? Well, highs today and tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s.
A parade of short waves will continue to affect the western Great Lakes today with this area in a confluence zone of short waves emanating from Central Plains upper trough and the pesky upper low just off the Mid Atlantic coast. Near term guidance remains consistent in the onset of a retrograding mid/upper level pattern today with eventual westward movement of this upper ridge into the local area on Friday. Tonight should feature cooler temps given the dry low level air spreading in from the east. Upper ridge should drift westward to the Great Lakes region on Friday, with enough accompanying dry air to shut off the afternoon shower chances of past few days. Placement of this high should also support better chances for at least some inland penetration of lake breeze with weaker southeasterly flow in comparison to the past few days.
Discussion: We will continue to be sandwiched between a large scale ridge to our north and a weak upper low off the Gulf Coast.
147 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure over the northeastern states will extend into the Ohio Valley, with hot and mostly sunny conditions persisting through the rest of the week.
1004 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Thunderstorms are developing across the higher terrain of New Mexico to the west. The remnants of the High Plains convection will move to the east-northeast this evening with the remnants likely moving into western Oklahoma late evening into the overnight.
with 07z/2am obs showing surface dewpoints mostly in the lower 60s. A subtle upper low evident on latest water vapor imagery over Indiana will shift westward, providing additional support for widely scattered convection during peak heating. Barnes As has been advertised by the past several model runs, a prominent upper high centered over the eastern Great Lakes/New England will retrograde westward on Friday.
5 inch, dewpoints in the lower 60s, and high 700mb RH.
1001 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure remains over the region through Friday.
We will also observe the trough in place over the region slowly replaced with a ridge of high pressure that will build in this evening through Friday. Tonight will be the last cool night before the overnight lows begin to trend warmer. A light but dry east wind will also develop along the coast range tonight, building and spreading to most ridgelines in the region through the weekend. This will limit humidity recoveries along ridgelines this weekend. The Brookings area will also be warmer compared to other parts of the coast during this time.
Cooler weather returns early next with a very low chance of showers impacting the region.
It will be another summer-like day with sunshine and patchy clouds, and temperatures will be nearing the 90 degree mark across much of the lowlands. Much of the period should feature mostly clear or clear skies, with at best a stray shower or weak storm or two along the higher terrain of our border with RNK this afternoon or early evening. Highs today look to reach into the mid- and upper 80s in the lower elevations, with mainly 70s in the mountains.
KBYX radar returns are surprisingly absent on this first day of June and official start to the 2023 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season. From synopsis, episodes of showers and thunderstorms will remain possible, particularly over the next 24 hours due to an upper- level trough to our northwest. The ultimate strength and track of a surface gulf low pressure area will have large implications to both the wind speeds and rain chances.
549 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 East to southeast flow around high pressure will maintain mainly clear skies with just FEW AC/CU this morning in some spots before subsidence under the center of upper high pressure shifts east over the area with time today into tonight and largely eliminates this activity. Aloft, already starting to see local effects of the retrograding ridge with 01.
Ridging will begin building in on Friday, and inland high temperatures will reach above average values through the weekend.
1019 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Dry and very warm weather will continue throughout the end of the work week with high pressure stalled overhead.
(Rest of Today) Another warm/humid day is on tap across the Tennessee Valley with as high pressure at the surface settling in from the north and an area of low pressure situated over the central Gulf of Mexico remains in place.
222 AM PDT Thu Jun 1 2023 The warming trend continues today, with the San Joaquin Valley seeing high temperatures in the low to mid 80's.
700 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Today and Tonight: A low pressure system is expected to spin over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today, with an axis of better moisture pivoting around it and across our forecast area through the afternoon.
(Now through Friday) A mid/upper closed low pressure area centered over the northeast Gulf will drift slowly southeastward.
641 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Weak wave of low pressure may bring isolated showers this afternoon across NC, but most will stay dry.
The majority of the thunderstorms will move into Canada in the next few hours, although a few storms will continue to pop up with the low pressure lingering over eastern Montana. Pattern setting up for a prolonged period of wet conditions with an upper trof in the west and high over the Great Lakes. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific will be merging over the state at the same time as an upper low ejects north from the Four Corners.
608 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure remains over the region through Friday.
A streamer shower or two cannot be completely ruled out through the period, but that chance is less than 15% with the highest chance along the immediate coast. Temperatures are forecast o climb into the lower to middle 90s the next couple of afternoons with lows in the lower to middle 70s. That supports temperatures generally in the lower to middle 90s for daytime highs and is keeping the bigger heat, middle to upper 90s typical for early June, at bay for a while longer. Overnight lows cool into the lower to middle 70s with one or two locations possibly slipping into the upper 60s across the Northern Ranchlands.
Dry weather will continue into the weekend with temperatures near to slightly warmer than average. A ridge will move inland early to mid week for a warming trend.
The local area continues to be under the influence of a weakening Rex block pattern with an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico and an upper ridge extending from the Midwest into New England. This will continue to largely be the case as we become increasingly removed from the lowered heights associated with the southern upper low now to our southeast. One caveat remains the continued slow transition to subtropical characteristics of the Gulf low with a surface reflection clearly defined in morning visible satellite imagery and a sheared clustered of thunderstorms near the low level center. /86/ Today and Tonight: A low pressure system is expected to spin over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today, with an axis of better moisture pivoting around it and across our forecast area through the afternoon.
629 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 (Today and tonight) An area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will slowly meander today before drifting more southeastward tonight. The proximity of the low and upper-level troughing will help maintain abundant moisture across the area, leading to good rain chances across the Florida counties today (40-50%). As the low drifts southeastward tonight, the rain chances will decrease through the night, leaving nearly everyone dry overnight.
727 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure will remain in control through Friday.
This is in response to an upper level low centered within the longwave trough across the Four Corners area of the CONUS. This upper level low has not moved much since 24 hours ago.
Slightly warmer today in most areas away from the coast as onshore flow begins to weaken.
515 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 (Today through Friday Night ) Given a blocking pattern, the weather has not changed much from day to day.
604 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 (Today and tonight) Precipitation chances ramp up today as the upper level ridge breaks down. After the MCS dissipates late tonight (with the low level jet going, confidence is low in far east / how late into the night this system will keep going), CAMs suggest a lull in activity into Friday morning.
644 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Dry and very warm weather will continue throughout the end of the work week due to pesky high pressure overhead.
1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 (Today through Friday Night) Mid/upper level ridging over the Southern Plains will help to keep things mostly quiet across SE TX through the end of the work week.
Compared to yesterday the low level convergence is more diffuse, which may be why the HREF is fairly limited with coverage. For Fri, the closed 500 MB high currently over the lower Great Lakes will shift to much of nrn Ontario by 00Z Sat. 5 inch, dewpoints in the lower 60s, and high 700mb RH.
We begin the short term in the lower 580s DM on the H5 chart, and we end the short term around the same. The high over the Upper Ohio Valley retrogrades over the Great Lakes with time, and offers the predominant influence upon our FA. We ultimately, with time, see a return to the northerly component as this retrogression occurs, with low level winds backing to northeast, and this will keep dew points effectively tamed in the lower half of the 60s to finish out the work week, before a nice dive back into the 50s to begin the weekend (as the northeasterlies commence).
1229 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 A hot and mainly dry stretch of weather will continue through the rest of the work week with high pressure in control. A ridge of high pressure over the Northeast remains in control of the weather pattern today, leading to plenty of sunshine with a field of patchy cumulus clouds over the higher terrain. It is not out of the question that one of those clouds could produce a stray shower or t-storm, but we expect high pressure to win out, keeping most areas dry. High temperatures are expected to be in the middle to upper 80s in the lowlands and the upper 70s to lower 80s in the mountains.
(This evening through Friday) Alabama will be positioned between a high pressure system over the Ohio Valley and a low pressure system developing in the Gulf. Winds will be stronger in the southern half of the state where the strengthening low pressure system over the Gulf will cause a tightening pressure gradient. Tonight the low pressure in the Gulf will start to meander to the south.
228 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 An area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to meander over the next couple of days, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected across the local area. The setup is pretty similar for tomorrow, though the highest rain chances look to shift southward compared with today as the low drifts southward some. For this weekend the low is forecast to drift south toward Cuba and eventually weaken. An area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will meander over the next few days, with deep moisture continuing to produce high chances of showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances then lower for the weekend as the low drifts farther away from the region.
Hot weather will continue Friday with record or near record high temps reaching the lower to middle 90s across most of our area (once again much cooler right along the Lake MI shoreline). Michigan will be between a retrograding upper level high situated over the upper mid west and a large upper level low moving southward along the east coast. As the large upper level low moves southward along the east coast it will bring several cold fronts through the Great Lakes and the mid Atlantic regions.
342 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure over the local area will move little through Friday night.
With limited shear and a freezing level close to 11 kft, suspect that smaller hail and spotty heavy rain will be the main threats. Highs very similar to today, maybe a degree or two cooler if cumulus develops early in the day.
High pressure continues to the north of the area, with the low pressure system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico having formed into a Tropical Depression. High temperatures for this afternoon will peak in the lower to mid 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s for the shoreline and for areas along the St Johns River.
For Friday, a westward moving high pressure center and associated dry air mass will start moving into central IL Friday morning, and should work far enough westward to prevent another day of widely scattered thunderstorms for parts of the area, mainly east of I-55, while the moisture lingers long enough to the west to support another round.
On Friday, the main story will be high temperatures in the lower to locally mid 90s inland. Drier low level easterly flow and lower dew points advecting inland from the Great Lakes high pressure should result in the lingering near 60F dew point axis getting shunted well inland, along with the instability axis.
Relatively higher PoPs expected to remain tied to the higher precipitable water axis from the Flint Hills westward across central/south central Kansas thru Friday night.
Ensembles and deterministic models continue to indicate a ridge over parts of the central and much of the eastern CONUS and a troughing pattern over the western CONUS.
1200 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 (Today through Friday Night ) Given a blocking pattern, the weather has not changed much from day to day.
However, high temperatures will only be a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday.
Highs Friday will be warmer in the upper 80's to near 90 degrees for most locations.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to be a degree or two warmer with most locations surpassing the 90 degree mark. And despite continued ridging, an isolated shower/storm or two cannot be ruled out.
(This evening through Friday) A pattern of high pressure over the Great Lakes and low pressure off the Gulf Coast will persist through the short term period. On Friday, the ridge to our north builds southward, which will shift the area of convective development farther south into Middle TN/AL/GA, with only a slight chance PoP across the southern TN Valley, southern Plateau and SW NC.
322 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 High pressure will prevail through late week.
1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 The local area continues to be under the influence of a weakening Rex block pattern with an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico and an upper ridge extending from the Midwest into New England. This will continue to largely be the case as we become increasingly removed from the lowered heights associated with the southern upper low now to our southeast. One caveat remains the continued slow transition to subtropical characteristics of the Gulf low with a surface reflection clearly defined in morning visible satellite imagery and a sheared clustered of thunderstorms near the low level center. /86/ Today and Tonight: A low pressure system is expected to spin over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today, with an axis of better moisture pivoting around it and across our forecast area through the afternoon.
The overall pattern continues with an upper low rotating near the four corners area. This low is meandering, split between the subtropical jet and the polar jet. Lobes/areas of low pressure circling around this low are bringing increased non-organized shower and thunderstorm activity to the region.
There is some uncertainty on just how far south convection will develop, but at this point, the highest rain chances look to remain north of I-20, although at least isolated to scattered storms are possible across southern portions of the Big Country (south of I-20).
For Fri, the closed 500 MB high currently over the lower Great Lakes will shift to much of nrn Ontario by 00Z Sat.
(Tonight) High pressure nudging in from the north remains the dominant weather feature across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. This ridge is promoting fairly typical weather for the 1st day of June with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and partly cloudy conditions due to a scattered Cu field that has developed. Sufficient moisture underneath this ridge will allow for some low chances (20-30%) for diurnally driven showers and storms through early this evening. This activity should propagate from east to west given the mean easterly flow due to the ridge to the north and an area of low pressure to the south over the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow temperatures to cool off into the lower 60s by early Friday morning.
There may be a weak warm front somewhere over the central Red River Valley, but the wind flow remains quite weak. Persistent upper level ridge will remain over the forecast area through most of the period.
A back door cold front (more like a moisture gradient) will begin to slide through the area from northeast to southwest. The front will clear the area by Friday night, setting up a dry and comfortable night with low temperatures dipping into the lower to middle 60s.
(Tonight through Friday night) Concur with deterministic runs that an upper N-S ridge axis will persist over the region during the period. An upper level disturbance is expected to move around the western periphery of the upper ridge Friday/Friday night, and thus the bulk of the associated forcing is expected to remain W/NW of the CWA. Despite afternoon CAPE and limited CIN values (NAM deterministic output), expect the combination of the upper ridge and limited moisture to restrict convective development, and thus concur with the very low NBM PoPs during the period.
224 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 A hot and mainly dry stretch of weather will continue through the rest of the work week with high pressure in control.
1205 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 (Rest of Today) Another warm/humid day is on tap across the Tennessee Valley with as high pressure at the surface settling in from the north and an area of low pressure situated over the central Gulf of Mexico remains in place.
A well-formed trough of low pressure with its axis along the West Coast is sending moisture into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. The southerly flow pattern bringing moisture into the Northern Rockies will continue through the weekend as a high amplitude ridge sets up over the central U. This ridge will result in a blocking pattern that keeps low pressure spinning to our south and pushing moisture into the Northern Rockies. The uncertainty will hinge on how long the ridge over the central U.
584dam ridge centered over the Lake Huron basin maintaining ongoing subsidence and a drier airmass (01.
243 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Little change in the pattern aloft over the next couple days as a weak blocking setup remains in place, so slightly below normal temps and slight precip chances continue.
Tomorrow, the influence of the upper low to our south will diminish further and temperatures will continue to creep up with rain chances falling.
256 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 (This afternoon through Friday) As the forecast area remains under the influence of a blocking pattern, the short term forecast is largely unchanged. While the upper level high pressure to the north and west of the county warning area builds in, the low pressure system to our southeast over the northeastern Gulf will gain strength. Maximum daily temperatures today will top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s, trending slightly warmer tomorrow where they are forecast to top out in the mid to upper 80s.
The eastern US continues to see a blocking pattern leaving our area with little upper level flow.
1238 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Broad but weak high pressure maintains dry weather and VFR conditions with light easterly wind today through Friday. Aloft, already starting to see local effects of the retrograding ridge with 01.
After today, a cutoff low in California will be absorbed by the trough in the PNW and there will be ridging in place in the central United States. We will be on the western edge of this ridging, but it will be enough to have a dry period and start seeing a warming trend.
123 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 (Today and tonight) Precipitation chances ramp up today as the upper level ridge breaks down. After the MCS dissipates late tonight (with the low level jet going, confidence is low in far east / how late into the night this system will keep going), CAMs suggest a lull in activity into Friday morning.
1243 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 (Today and tonight) An area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will slowly meander today before drifting more southeastward tonight. The proximity of the low and upper-level troughing will help maintain abundant moisture across the area, leading to good rain chances across the Florida counties today (40-50%). As the low drifts southeastward tonight, the rain chances will decrease through the night, leaving nearly everyone dry overnight.
As of 230pm CT storm have fired in South Dakota and are slowing moving north in the Mobridge and Aberdeen area. With the current storms in Mobridge, SD we could get a few south of Bismarck. One thing that could limit the storms in the east is the increasing heights at 500mb, but with the high CAPE today it could just slightly suppress the storms to be not as tall.