Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Further west, an elongated upper ridge axis stretches from central NV into the Pacific NW. A surface warm front has surged east of the forecast area with a cold front extending from east-central ND into far northwestern SD, stretching westward into central MT. The clipper and cold front will push through the forecast area this morning into the early afternoon. This higher probability coupled with the ingredients that are in place give high confidence in a period of advisory level winds for an area from Newell southward along the I-90 corridor from near Whitewood through New Underwood and the immediate surrounding plains.
1035 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Upper level troughing advances eastward and a northwesterly mid- level flow develops across South-Central Texas through the short term as ridging dominates the pattern out west. Area cooler drainage valleys and portions of the Hill Country will see the return of freezing temperatures. Sunday will otherwise trend milder as winds shift from out of the west to southwest, with afternoon highs in the low 70s for many.
Dry weather through Sunday with upper ridging nudging into Western Washington.
Cooler temperatures and more unsettled weather then return for the second half of the week.
- Windy conditions will accompany the passage of this upper level wave and a surface cold front.
The cold front still poorly defined and has not quite developed yet. Additional convection is possible ahead of the cold front. Even so windy conditions are expected to persist behind the eventual cold front that will sweep through Sunday morning. Tide levels should stay below warning criteria for the Lower Keys but it will be close. Meanwhile, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible as the low moves northeast across the Gulf towards Central Florida.
1010 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2023 IR currently depicts upper level clouds spilling over an upper level ridge across the Pacific Northwest extending through the CWA and upper Rockies. The upper level ridge will stay in place through the weekend and into early this next work week. However, it looks to break down some and weaken with increasing divergence aloft coming from an upper level low off the northern California coast.
These two features are driving a cold front through the region, with some lingering light rain showers & drizzle persisting, mainly in the Golden Triangle in northeast MS while majority outside areas remain dry. Showers will continue to linger heading into tonight as mid-afternoon global guidance continues to show a 1004mb low pressure system shifting east towards FL. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the low/mid 40s across our forecast area. A cooler and drier air mass will spread across the area on Sunday as the aforementioned low-pressure tracks north towards the Carolinas.
(Today and tonight) With some weak upper-level ridging settling over West Central Texas today and tonight, more calm and mild conditions are expected to persist across the area through tonight. Temperatures today will start off a bit cooler this morning ranging in the low 30s to near 40, then rising into the mid 60s to lower 70s by this afternoon.
247 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - Freezing fog potential until around sunrise in extreme southwest MO/southeast KS with a Freezing Fog Advisory valid until 8 am.
1041 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Dry northwest flow aloft will continue over the region through the remainder of the weekend as a large-amplitude upper ridge axis continues to build over the western CONUS. Surface flow will remain light through the daytime hours on Sunday as a weak trough gradually shifts southward over the Texas Panhandle ahead of a weakening cold front set to pass through the region late Sunday.
1057 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 (This evening through Sunday night) Temperatures as of the latest 19Z obs are well into the 50s across the Panhandles, with some areas even reaching the lower 60s. A weak cold front will move through the Panhandles tomorrow. Besides a wind shift from westerly to northerly, no other impacts from the cold front is expected. Skies remain mostly clear tomorrow night with low temperatures ranging from the lower 20s to lower 30s.
Highs this afternoon will be around 5-8 degrees warmer than yesterday within a prefrontal trough. The weak cold front is still expected to move through late tonight.
118 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 (06Z TAFS) Inclement conditions continue across terminals as low pressure over the E Gulf continues NE, with warm front over C FL and trailing cold front over E Gulf. Showers and storms expected to continue impacting terminals, with the main band preceding cold front as the primary concern generally through around 10Z or shortly thereafter. Gusty winds expected, increasing as winds turn onshore as the cold front passes through, likely around or just above 20 knots with higher gusts before diminishing later in the afternoon. Otherwise, expect restrictions with MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys given convection ahead of front, with post-frontal sub-VFR cigs as cooler, stable air mass works across terminals.
235 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Key Points: * Clearing from west to east will lead to warmer conditions today.
Upper heights will continue to rise today ahead of a ridge. Consequently, high temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday, rising into the mid 60s. A weak cold front will track southward across the TX Panhandle through the evening, bringing cooler temperatures and shifting surface winds to northeasterly.
With clear skies, radiational cooling will lead to much cooler low overnight temperatures tonight and Sunday night, with lows generally in the upper 30s to low 40s. It would not be surprising to see a few isolated locations reach near freezing overnight tonight, but with very low confidence, have not included this in the forecast.
An amplified pattern can be seen across much of the CONUS today, with strong ridging over the Intermountain West and deep troughing across the eastern half of the U. Due to the ridging overhead, conditions over the Desert Southwest will continue to be dry through this weekend.
116 AM MST Sun Dec 17 2023 Current 500 mb analysis shows the area under northwesterly flow aloft with the upper level trough situated in vicinity of the Mississippi River and an upper level ridge across the west.
252 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Today and Tonight: A pleasant Sunday is in store for the CWA as a low pressure system and cold front move away from the area and cooler/dry air returns. A cold front will move across the CWA, decreasing the cloud cover throughout the morning. In the wake of both systems, northwest flow will allow cooler and drier air to filter into the region.
Low temperatures are expected to range from the upper 20s to mid 30s so can not rule out a low chance for freezing fog in those locations where temperatures are able to fall below freezing. Warmer temperatures compared to today are expected Sunday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the fa. A cold front is expected to begin to move through the area late Sunday afternoon/early evening.
Expect this trend to continue overnight with patchy freezing fog possible areawide, mainly in the typical, low-lying areas. (The rest of this afternoon ) Skies are slowly clearing from the west this afternoon in the wake of a departing upper level low. For the time being will include patchy freezing fog area-wide as most spots will be AOB freezing, but more widespread coverage may need to be introduced later in some areas. (Tonight through Saturday) Northwest flow develops Sunday which will result in a dry and generally clear day, with warmer temperatures.
There is a good deal of sunshine across central and western Nebraska and the back edge of lingering low clouds across the northeast continues to progress eastward as low pressure over the Mississippi valley pulls away from the area.
(Today) Some light rain ahead of an approaching cold front is moving through the CWA early this morning. The aformentioned cold front is further west as of writing this with surface observations showing a wind shift across MS and western TN. As the cold front pushes through the Tennessee Valley this morning, rain will come to an end, but cloud cover will likely persist into the early afternoon before slowly clearing from west to east.
- Dry and warmer Sunday with many locations around or warmer than 50F (although northwesterly wind gusts of 25-30 MPH much of the day will lower the "pleasantness level" a bit).
A fairly sharp rainfall gradient will exist with totals diminishing rapidly from the highest amounts across eastern counties to totals well under an inch for areas farther west, including the Atlanta metro.
957 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2023 - Fog/freezing fog will be of concern in Upper Yampa Basin and in the Animas Basin in the highway 160 corridor. Otherwise, there is plenty of sunshine to go around on this Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Rockies. The latest guidance has most of the high clouds exiting the region on Sunday, which should make for another mild and mostly sunny day to round out the weekend. High temperatures will be similar to today's readings, if not a couple degrees warmer, and still unseasonably mild for mid December.
Widespread LIFR in dense fog in the lower Snake Plain.
931 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 (This evening through Sunday) 500mb ridge across the western United States and a 500mb trough across the east-central U. with temperatures falling into the lower to mid 30s across southern portions of the CWA late tonight into early Sunday morning. The upper level trough of low pressure across the east-central U.
(Today) Areas of fog and freezing fog, locally dense, have developed across far E. A Freezing Fog Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM CST this morning for locations generally east of Vinita to McAlester line. Fog/freezing fog may expand farther westward later this morning, but should stay more patchy in nature and mainly affect low-lying locations. Will continue to monitor surface observations for an expansion of the Freezing Fog Advisory, if necessary. Mejia (Tonight through Saturday) A cold front will move through the area this evening/tonight.
530 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 A reinforcing cold front tonight into Monday will bring a return of cold arctic air back to the area for early this week.
This will mean our highs today will be a little cooler than yesterday, but still above seasonal norms. The ridge axis to our west will slide over our region Monday leading to a warming trend as flow turns more downslope.
Some improvement in visibility has been seen in the last few hours as winds become westerly behind a weak trough. Overall, expect continued gradual improvement in visibility through sunrise and the morning hours as the trough continues to work east.
310 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - Dry and warmer today with high temperatures in the 50s across most of the area, but northwesterly wind gusts of 25-30 mph are also expected. - A front moving through tonight will bring cooler temperatures Monday with highs only in the 30s to low 40s.
Early morning satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across SE Idaho courtesy of an H5 ridge axis overhead which with inversions in place will continue to lead to patchy areas of low stratus and dense freezing fog especially along or near bodies of water. The HRRR model shows the most widespread areas of dense fog across the Treasure and Magic Valleys, becoming more patchy across the Lower Snake Plain and surrounding mountain valleys. Further to our west, an area of low pressure well off the CA coast will begin to weaken and track NE throughout the day Monday leading to an increase in upper-level clouds as conditions remain dry.
An area of light rain associated with the Gulf system is ending across the far southeast, while a broken band of light rain associated with the Tennessee Valley trough covers much of Central Alabama. A cold front will move through the area today, ending rain chances by early afternoon. After highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s this afternoon, lows tonight will fall into the lower 30s to lower 40s. A secondary trough and cold front will move into the area Monday, as high pressure shifts southward through the Plains.
502 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Key Points: * Clearing from west to east will lead to warmer conditions today. * Cold front is expected to move through the region leading to cooler and breezier condition tonight into Monday. As the low level flow transitions to more of a westerly component, the stratus is expected to accelerate east leading to clearing skies. This cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler than areas to the south and west where highs will warm into the lower and mid 50s. A strong cold front is expected to move through the region this afternoon into the evening. Behind the front, northwest winds will increase ushering cooler air into the region.
Overnight lows then bottom out in the lower 20s or upper teens.
(Today through Monday) The actual cold front is making its way through the area as it is only a few miles west of a JAN-BTR line at 07z. Prefrontal trough has slid east of the area bringing the rain with it. This will help temps fall to around freezing north to around 40 south. But this will slowly drain as it feels the lower levels through the Rigolets especially as winds weaken over time.
Today through Monday night Another nice day of quiet and dry weather with warming temperatures and light winds as high pressure influences the Silver State. Meanwhile, upper-level cloud cover increases throughout today ahead of a low pressure system situated off the west coast. Warm, southwest flow will help keep snow levels to about 7,000 feet, with minimal impacts expected for the mountains given the low snowfall amounts.
However, winds will begin to increase as the high moves east of the region, and we get back into the SE onshore flow that will increase the moisture and warm for the next few days.
Currently - The Keys remain entrenched within the warm sector of a low pressure system driving through the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The strong southerly flow has indeed transported tropical warmth and humidity into the Keys with temperatures in the upper 70s and dew points in the lower 70s. However, post cold front stratocumulus will inevitably congest our skies later today or tonight. While a cold front is on tap, it is still a ways off and not likely to being delivering cooler and drier air until late today. While this will act to bring in undeniably cooler and drier air, the true cool down will take a bit to get here. Second, a strong high pressure spilling southeastward out of western Canada will not begin spreading across the peninsula and the Keys until late Monday.
- Cooler and near normal on Monday while the rest of the week continues to be well above normal. An upper wave and its associated cold front will move across the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. There could be enough warmer air for some rain mixing in for parts of southern Minnesota. With high pressure off to the west we will be in a pretty notable pressure gradient especially this evening into tonight. In addition the cooler air moving in should allow for profiles favorable for mixing. It will however, in the post frontal airmass, be much cooler Monday.
A transition from ridging to quasi-zonal flow over the next couple days will keep conditions across northeastern Montana dry and well above normal through the rest of the week. However, with each model run, the timing and location of the trough keeps shifting enough to maintain a high level of uncertainty regarding the progression of this system.
On the heels of the upper low lifting into the Midwest US, a cold front is dragged through the region, set to arrive into our northern zones around 00z this evening. With upper ridging providing subsidence and not much low level moisture to work with, this will be a dry front and no precipitation is expected in the short term.
The initial upper level system will lift northeast ahead of a strong cold front that will approach the area tonight. Lows will be near or slightly below freezing.
High pressure will maintain mostly dry and stable conditions through much of the upcoming week.
(Today through Monday) High pressure will continue to build across Deep South Texas through the forecast period.
Late this week into this coming weekend a storm system will bring cooler temperatures and precipitation chances to southeast Arizona.
524 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Today through Monday night) Northwest flow aloft will usher in a weak cold front to the area later this afternoon, which as of 09z is advancing across the north central Great Plains. Highs today are expected to reach the low to mid 60s ahead of the front's arrival, with only a minor drop in temperatures behind it. Light northerly winds will continue modest CAA into Monday morning, with lows only a few degrees cooler compared to this morning. 850mb temperatures will continue cooling Monday, keeping afternoon highs closer to climatological averages in the low to mid 50s.
- Dry and warmer today with high temperatures in the 50s across most of the area, but northwesterly wind gusts of 25-30 mph are also expected. - A front moving through tonight will bring cooler temperatures Monday with highs only in the 30s to low 40s.
534 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Today and Tonight: A pleasant Sunday is in store for the CWA as a low pressure system and cold front move away from the area and cooler/dry air returns. A cold front will move across the CWA, decreasing the cloud cover throughout the morning. In the wake of both systems, northwest flow will allow cooler and drier air to filter into the region.
509 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Today through Monday) Upper level flow over TX this morning was from the northwest with a trough to the east and a ridge to the west. Cooler, drier air has moved in with temperatures five to ten degrees cooler and dewpoints 10 to 15 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. This will bring warmer air back and highs today will be around five degrees warmer than yesterday with mostly sunny skies. With a warmer start lows will be warmer Monday morning. This will bring some cooler air for Monday and high temperatures will be few degrees lower than Sunday.
Meanwhile, it's much chillier along the South Platte River Valley and in the high valleys, where calm winds are allowing for efficient radiational cooling. Although we'll remain under the influence of high pressure aloft, a weak (and dry) surface front will produce some cold advection as it moves north to south across the plains and urban corridor. Thus, temperatures should drop a few degrees compared to yesterday's values, but will still be firmly above normal (~10-15 degrees above average), with highs climbing into the upper 50's for the lower elevations. A ridge of high pressure will shift east across the area Monday with dry and mild weather. We'll likely see high clouds increase by afternoon as the ridge axis begins to weaken, but temperatures will be warming nicely again with lee troughing late in the day.
310 AM PST Sun Dec 17 2023 A strong ridge aloft and weak offshore flow at the surface will bring another warm day today.
513 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Today) Some light rain ahead of an approaching cold front is moving through the CWA early this morning. The aformentioned cold front is further west as of writing this with surface observations showing a wind shift across MS and western TN. As the cold front pushes through the Tennessee Valley this morning, rain will come to an end, but cloud cover will likely persist into the early afternoon before slowly clearing from west to east.
(Today through Monday night) Northwest flow aloft will usher in a weak cold front to the area later this afternoon, which as of 09z is advancing across the north central Great Plains. Highs today are expected to reach the low to mid 60s ahead of the front's arrival, with only a minor drop in temperatures behind it. Light northerly winds will continue modest CAA into Monday morning, with lows only a few degrees cooler compared to this morning. 850mb temperatures will continue cooling Monday, keeping afternoon highs closer to climatological averages in the low to mid 50s.
531 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Today through Monday Night) High pressure will control the weather pattern through the short term promoting calm and dry conditions. Patchy fog and freezing fog has developed overnight across portions of western, southern, and north-central Arkansas.
- Temperatures will be much warmer than normal every day into the weekend aside from Monday. Today and Tomorrow: Water vapor imagery this morning depicts a deep trough structure passing into the Florida Peninsula extending northward over the Great Lakes region. Moving along with the trough is a long cold front and a deepening low entering the Florida Peninsula, with widespread rainfall focused along and ahead of those features.
Widespread gusts 35 to 45 MPH expected for areas along and east of Interstate 25 this afternoon with a cold frontal passage. Trending much warmer through mid week, especially along and east of Interstate 25.
The region will enjoy another day of above average temperatures for mid-December and generally quiet weather due to the influence of a ridge axis over the western CONUS. The ridge axis is forecast to shift eastward heading into Monday though, which will shift the western CONUS into a southwest flow regime ahead of a developing system in the Pacific.
506 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Today through Monday) High pressure will continue to build across Deep South Texas through the forecast period.
432 AM MST Sun Dec 17 2023 Current 500 mb analysis shows the area under northwesterly flow aloft with the upper level trough situated in vicinity of the Mississippi River and an upper level ridge across the west. For Monday, an upper level trough slides south-southeast towards the Great Lakes region over top of the eastward progressing ridge.
450 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Today and tonight) With some weak upper-level ridging settling over West Central Texas today and tonight, more calm and mild conditions are expected to persist across the area through tonight. Temperatures today will start off a bit cooler this morning ranging in the low 30s to near 40, then rising into the mid 60s to lower 70s by this afternoon. A cold front will begin to track through the area tonight and into Monday morning, resulting in another round of cooler temperatures overnight tonight into Monday. Expect overnight lows tonight to drop back down into the 30s again, with some low lying areas nearing the freezing mark.
531 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - Freezing fog potential until around sunrise in extreme southwest MO/southeast KS with a Freezing Fog Advisory valid until 8 am.
A reinforcing cold front will come barrelling towards the area by midday on Monday. A couple of models continue to want to bring some snow to portions of Middle TN Monday afternoon, mainly across the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau. First of all, surface temperatures will lag a bit behind the frontal boundary, with most not falling below freezing until after sunset.
A reinforcing cold front tonight into Monday will bring a return of cold arctic air back to the area for early this week.
(Today through Monday Night) Benign weather conditions are expected to prevail for the next few days as high pressure and dry air work together to bring us beautiful December conditions over Southeast Texas. Skies will be mostly sunny and the highs will be in the mid to upper 60s. The temperatures tonight into early Monday are expected to be on the colder side again, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and the low to mid 40s along the coasts. Mostly sunny skies will continue and highs will once again be in the mid to upper 60s for most of the area, possibly in the low to mid 60s over the Piney Woods region.