Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Despite an intensifying field of westerlies across all of southwest/central Kansas, drier air in the lower/mid levels and marginal moisture associated with the upper level system itself will lend to a generally dry frontal passage. Colder air filtering southward into western Kansas later tonight behind the front will reinforce the already colder air mass settled throughout the high plains.
Morning lows bottomed out a couple degrees cooler than anticipated but are recovering and afternoon highs still look on track. With mean thermo profiles dry below half inch & persistent mean subsidence, chilly morning is ongoing, with lows falling to low-mid 30s, with some areas near freezing in cool drainage areas. 850mb ridge is progged to shift E, with gradual return flow over the ArkLaTex & dewpoints slowly climbing into the aftn. Temps will be similar to yesterday, warming above climo some +5-10 deg F into the low 60s N to mid-upper 60s in the S. Dewpoints will climb into the low 40s across these areas, while mid-upper 30s in central-NE zones. Subtle pressure gradient will help S wind to persist into the night, with lows a touch warmer than this morning in the low 40s E to mid 40s W.
345 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 The upper trough continues to move east of the Great Lakes into tonight, while a ridge builds in from the Northern Plains.
/Tonight through Friday/ Key Messages: - Patchy fog possible north tonight into Saturday morning - Light snow in southern Iowa Saturday Discussion: Other than some lingering clouds, conditions remain quiet across the area with the influence of the large eastern US trough exiting the area. The low quickly slides to the east and thermal ridging with return southerly flow quickly takes over.
Intermittent flurries/drizzle are expected to continue until that trough is replaced by incoming sfc ridging and associated subsidence, which looks to occur after Midnight. --Some Black Ice Could Develop Later Tonight-- Can't rule out some black ice developing later tonight on currently damp roadways as temps dip to near or slightly below freezing. Bridges and overpasses will be most susceptible at first. A clearing scenario could also lead to a patchy freezing fog threat if the clearing occurs for a sufficient length of time. However several guidance sources including the HREF and ECMWF do show at least partial clearing by Saturday afternoon as surface ridging and drier air become better established.
Readings will be warmer south with the mid and high clouds.
(Through Saturday) High pressure will settle across the southeast US, leading to clear, calm, quiet weather.
The main story over the next 36 hours is the high likelihood of fog develop again later this evening into Saturday morning given the synoptic setup outlined above. This fog will be slow to clear out on Saturday as high pressure remains in place but southerly winds will start to develop later in the day which should promote some mixing.
Also, forecast soundings suggest weak lift and only a few thousand feet of saturation before dry air mixes back into the low levels by the time temperatures drop sufficiently below freezing to support freezing drizzle. All of these concerns lead me to believe that if a wintry mix in the form of freezing drizzle even develops over portions of the area, that it won't have much persistence and likely impacts are very low.
High pressure with cool and very dry air continues to build as the center of the high tracks eastward along or near the northern Florida state border. Highs this afternoon on track to top out in the upper 60s to the north and the lower 70s to the south. Chilly temperatures expected tonight as lows Saturday morning drop to the mid 40s through the interior (lower 40s will be possible in cooler areas north of I-4). Along the coast, lows start in the mid 40s near Daytona and increase a little to around 50 along the Space Coast and most of the Treasure coast (lows a little warmer near Stuart in the mid 50s). Temperatures Saturday just a couple degrees warmer than today, with afternoon highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
This, in concert with building upper level heights will erode the lower cloud cover on Saturday.
A few flurries and/or light drizzle/freezing drizzle will be possible across mainly east central Wisconsin as a mid level vort rotates through the region. However, at least broken clouds will continue to linger over the area until the upper trough finally exits. Cooler air is filtering in this morning, so highs today will be a little lower than previous days, in the upper 20s to around 32 far southeast. We should be able to warm back into the lower/mid 30s, just above the freezing mark.
248 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over lower MI with a ridge over the Rockies and a trough on the west coast.
Highs will be in the low 30s, but with light and variable winds, it should still feel pretty nice out.
Will see continued low pressure systems develop under the jet and lifting northward near 130-135W as they approach the Pacific Northwest. Modest south-southwesterly mid-level flow should result in precipitation amounts not being terribly different between the higher terrain and valley locations, but QPF still looks to be well below thresholds critical for hydrology problems. 18Z TAFs: An offshore low pressure system will continue moving northeastward through tonight. Buoy observations as of 2 AM show winds and seas ramping up yet again as the next area of low pressure, currently near 46N/136W, moves northeastward towards southern Alaska. Winds will reach low- to mid-level Gales during the first half of the day Friday with seas remaining in the low to mid teens through Friday night.
While most of the dense fog has dissipated most models and model soundings support development of fog again this evening as high pressure moves southeast through the area.
(Through tonight ) A low-amplitude upper low continues to move across the Central Plains this afternoon, while at the surface, a low has developed in response over the TX/OK Panhandle. Patchy light rain or drizzle should develop east of the low/cold front later tonight into morning, though precip amounts will be light. Most areas will see relatively mild temps overnight though parts of NE OK may see a notable drop late tonight with the cold front.
109 PM MST Fri Jan 6 2023 Water vapor shows weak upper low/trof over MT/WY moving into the Northern Plains ridge, with persistent trof along the west coast. The first is the mid/high clouds associated with aformentioned upper low/trof just to our west. Second is the low level flow slowly turning more south/southwest overnight into Saturday morning, although it will be quite weak. Dry and relatively mild conditions are expected through the weekend with upper ridge rebuilding through the Northern Plains.
With high pressure and very light winds the ample moisture in the low levels continues to form into fog and produce light snow at times. Hi-res models have the high relative humidity values moving off to the east Saturday afternoon, so we should see a break from the fog.
There was/is some icing in the western foothills as rain fell/falls on sub-freezing surfaces. As temperatures rise with solar heating and westerly winds, surfaces should warm enough to cause melting and prevent any further freezing on contact from additional rain showers. Expect a small chance for this light snow to persist through the morning before tapering off of this weak waves moves on and the broad upper ridge dominates once again. Winds will be slightly breezy along the foothills west of Billings, but overall remarkably low for being under ridging and having a pressure gradient (albeit, a weak one) set up over south-central MT.
As a result, the trailing cold front is expected to temporarily stall just off to our northwest, keeping most areas dry during the day on Saturday.
(18Z TAFS) VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours as high pressure settles into the area. Zonal flow aloft will shift more to the southwest during the day on Saturday, as a weak ridge builds ahead of a trough digging into the Plains. Given weak height rises on Saturday, temps will be a few degrees warmer, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The abnormal warmth will not last into this weekend however as a cold front is progged to arrive later tonight. This front is not expected to be of arctic origin and thus temperatures will not fall below freezing tonight. Highs tomorrow will be around 15 degrees cooler than today, however still above normal for early January, mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
(Tonight) Mostly zonal flow will continue aloft as broad ridging shifts east closer to the surface. High pressure over the lower Appalachians will continue to keep dry conditions in place overnight, and temperatures will remain above freezing thanks to southerly flow and an increase in high clouds.
703 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 High pressure will build across the eastern U.
SNOTELs and webcams suggest an inch or two so far over the high mountains.
556 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 Tonight and Saturday: Warmer than normal and dry tonight; then warmer than normal again Saturday but rain chances return in the northwest. The rain chances and associated cloud cover will hold afternoon highs in the 60s across our northern zones while the central and southern zones top out in the lower 70s.
749 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 A few light echoes to our west are showing up on radar this evening, but the lower levels are still dry enough that we may only see a sprinkle or two make it to the ground in the overnight hours.
Patchy freezing fog is expected in some valleys across eastern Nevada tonight with otherwise mostly quiet weather expected through Saturday.
430 PM MST Fri Jan 6 2023 Water vapor shows weak upper low/trof over MT/WY moving into the Northern Plains ridge, with persistent trof along the west coast. The first is the mid/high clouds associated with aformentioned upper low/trof just to our west. Second is the low level flow slowly turning more south/southwest overnight into Saturday morning, although it will be quite weak. Dry and relatively mild conditions are expected through the weekend with upper ridge rebuilding through the Northern Plains.
554 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 (Through tonight ) A low-amplitude upper low continues to move across the Central Plains this afternoon, while at the surface, a low has developed in response over the TX/OK Panhandle. Patchy light rain or drizzle should develop east of the low/cold front later tonight into morning, though precip amounts will be light. Most areas will see relatively mild temps overnight though parts of NE OK may see a notable drop late tonight with the cold front.
Temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to the lower 50s under clear skies and light winds. As a result, the trailing cold front is expected to temporarily stall just off to our northwest, keeping most areas dry during the day on Saturday.
Expect high temperatures to reach the 30s and low 40s for most of the area each day, though some modest breezes and lack of sunshine may make it feel a little cooler.
Widespread mins in the M-U40s, a few degrees cooler over the interior north, and milder along the Treasure Coast barrier islands. High pressure with cool and very dry air will move east across the SE CONUS/north FL, keeping dry, comfortable weather in place. Temperatures just a couple degrees warmer than today, with afternoon highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
230 PM MST Fri Jan 6 2023 A weak upper air trough is bringing clouds to the area, along with a few showers in the western foothills. Tonight into Saturday, the upper trough will move eastward out of the Northern Rockies and an upper ridge will move into the region.
513 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 (This evening through Saturday) A ~110kt upper level jet and stronger WSW flow through the mid- levels are allowing for the advection of warmer, drier air into the region. The pattern will shift overnight into Saturday with an upper trough approaching from the north. This will lead to additional cloud cover and keep lows slightly warmer the average, near the freezing mark. As this low weakens and departs to the east, winds will diminish through the day. Combined with the aforementioned upper troughing, temperatures will be significantly cooler than today, remaining in the upper 50s over much of the southern Panhandle.
316 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 Tonight and Saturday: Warmer than normal and dry tonight; then warmer than normal again Saturday but rain chances return in the northwest. The rain chances and associated cloud cover will hold afternoon highs in the 60s across our northern zones while the central and southern zones top out in the lower 70s.
530 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 (Tonight) Mostly zonal flow will continue aloft as broad ridging shifts east closer to the surface. High pressure over the lower Appalachians will continue to keep dry conditions in place overnight, and temperatures will remain above freezing thanks to southerly flow and an increase in high clouds.
Wave is just ahead of a large area of strong high pressure currently centered over much of Ontario. with dry wx still expected thru the upcoming weekend as high pressure and dry air take over. Overnight lows will range from the teens across much of Eastern Upper Michigan to the low to mid 20s across Northern Lower Michigan.
High pressure was over the region and winds will remain light tonight and we expect the fog and stratus to reform. We thought about issuing a Dense Fog Advisory for tonight but will wait for now and see how widespread the low visibilities get. The forecast remains dry through mid-week then we introduce small chances for light snow as a low pressure system passes through the region. High pressure remaining over the region will likely lead to fog and stratus development tonight. High pressure will lead to winds at or below 15 knots into Saturday.
907 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 High pressure will build toward the region through Saturday.
644 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 (Through Saturday) High pressure will settle across the southeast US, leading to clear, calm, quiet weather.
709 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 The upper trough continues to move east of the Great Lakes into tonight, while a ridge builds in from the Northern Plains.
641 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 (Rest of today through Saturday) A cold front has pushed through South Florida today and drier and slightly cooler air has been filtering across the region this morning and afternoon.
High pressure was over the region and winds will remain light tonight and we expect the fog and stratus to reform. We thought about issuing a Dense Fog Advisory for tonight but will wait for now and see how widespread the low visibilities get. The forecast remains dry through mid-week then we introduce small chances for light snow as a low pressure system passes through the region. However, with high pressure over the region we expect more fog and stratus to develop tonight. High pressure will lead to winds at or below 15 knots into Saturday.
447 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 Low pressure will track east of Nova Scotia tonight. A cold front will cross the region Saturday.
This dry air is eroding the lower clouds over the Idaho Panhandle and also over a few portions of north- central Idaho including Lowell. Hamilton had dense freezing fog all morning that finally broke up around 1 pm MST. There could be areas that experience dense freezing fog. Weak high pressure on Saturday with an influx of higher clouds is expected. Flurries or even a light dusting of snow is possible in the low stratus. The persistent cloud cover may allow for high temperatures to be cooler than forecast.
At the same time the 850 mb thermal trough was over this region. Light rain or possibly freezing drizzle could occur outside of this main band of snow. Intermittent flurries/drizzle are expected to continue until that trough is replaced by incoming sfc ridging and associated subsidence, which looks to occur after Midnight. --Some Black Ice Could Develop Later Tonight-- Can't rule out some black ice developing later tonight on currently damp roadways as temps dip to near or slightly below freezing. Bridges and overpasses will be most susceptible at first. A clearing scenario could also lead to a patchy freezing fog threat if the clearing occurs for a sufficient length of time. However several guidance sources including the HREF and ECMWF do show at least partial clearing by Saturday afternoon as surface ridging and drier air become better established.
Upper ridge builds into the region tonight into Saturday, allowing for low stratus and fog to return. Inversions linger into Saturday night while upper ridge rides over East Idaho.
851 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 A band of cooler dewpoint temperatures is currently in place stretching from Memphis to Jackson, TN. In addition, cloud cover has increased west of the Mississippi River as a deck of mid- level clouds moves in from the west ahead of a cold front. Otherwise, temperatures Saturday will vary as the cold front pushes through. Southwest Tennessee and north Mississippi will trend warmer, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
High pressure was over the region and winds will remain light tonight and we expect the fog and stratus to reform. We thought about issuing a Dense Fog Advisory for tonight but will wait for now and see how widespread the low visibilities get. The forecast remains dry through mid-week then we introduce small chances for light snow as a low pressure system passes through the region. High pressure will lead to winds at or below 15 knots into Saturday.
Expect high temperatures to reach the 30s and low 40s for most of the area each day, though some modest breezes and lack of sunshine may make it feel a little cooler. Lingering light rain/freezing rain over the eastern portion of North-Central Mt has ended, leaving areas of dense fog over the central/southwest valleys as the primary concern for tonight.
However, a cold front currently in our northern counties will move south through the area, which is expected to help clear out these clouds during the afternoon hours. Highs will be quite a bit cooler today, likely topping out in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Overnight, skies are expected to continue clearing as drier air slowly filters in behind the cold front. Overnight lows will continue the cooling trend with lows in the lower 30s to lower 40s.
Patchy fog has developed across the lower valley west of Boise and in mountain valleys, and the forecast has been updated to include the fog.
1045 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 A few light echoes to our west are showing up on radar this evening, but the lower levels are still dry enough that we may only see a sprinkle or two make it to the ground in the overnight hours.
Mid-level moisture will move through the southeastern half of Oklahoma today in conjunction with the phasing of a southern branch wave with an eastward-moving upper low over the lower Missouri Valley.
cooler conditions from upper 30s to low 50s were being reported underneath mostly clear skies to a denser mid level cloud deck. This should help to keep temps warmer through the night compared to previous nights. Colder temps in the 30s to lower 40s look to be west of Highway 75 in Northeast Oklahoma from the current sky clear conditions and also as the cold front looks to reach this area by 12z Saturday. have adjusted overnight PoPs/Wx grids based on the mentioned above and also added minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint/sky grids to account for latest trends/obs and the forecast timing of the cold front.
1149 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 A band of cooler dewpoint temperatures is currently in place stretching from Memphis to Jackson, TN. In addition, cloud cover has increased west of the Mississippi River as a deck of mid- level clouds moves in from the west ahead of a cold front. Otherwise, temperatures Saturday will vary as the cold front pushes through. Southwest Tennessee and north Mississippi will trend warmer, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Moisture depths are comfortably below the DGZ now, with temperatures sitting just above or at the freezing mark. Pockets of drizzle to freezing drizzle will be possible under this setup leading into the late morning hours. Road impacts with any observed precipitation are on the lower side. Road temperatures will likely hold just above freezing given the gradual come down from highs in the mid to upper 30s yesterday afternoon. Any freezing drizzle that may manifest would be isolated and confined to mainly bridges and overpasses given the influence of air temperatures around freezing.
1255 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 High pressure will extend across the area into tonight.
A belt of relatively strong midlevel southwesterlies remains over West Texas in between these two features, with modest upper height falls progged to continue today as the southern trough attempts to phase with the northern wave. At the surface, northerly flow this morning will continue to usher in a cooler airmass with 850mb temps set to fall as much as 10C compared to yesterday afternoon. Surface flow will veer easterly by this evening, eventually becoming light overnight as surface ridging expands over the region.
111 AM MST Sat Jan 7 2023 A very quiet night as upper ridging returns, bringing warm and dry conditions to us. No impactful weather to note of throughout this period, and overall should be a nice weekend, with temperatures reaching the low to mid 40s, and relatively light winds.
130 AM MST Sat Jan 7 2023 Scattered flurries will continue through the overnight in northern areas, but radar trends already show weakening as the upper trough axis begins to pull away.
117 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will reside over the area through Saturday.
1035 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 (This evening through Saturday) A ~110kt upper level jet and stronger WSW flow through the mid- levels are allowing for the advection of warmer, drier air into the region. The pattern will shift overnight into Saturday with an upper trough approaching from the north. This will lead to additional cloud cover and keep lows slightly warmer the average, near the freezing mark. As this low weakens and departs to the east, winds will diminish through the day. Combined with the aforementioned upper troughing, temperatures will be significantly cooler than today, remaining in the upper 50s over much of the southern Panhandle.
Water vapor shows weak upper low/trof over MT/WY moving into the Northern Plains ridge, with persistent trof along the west coast. The first is the mid/high clouds associated with aformentioned upper low/trof just to our west. Second is the low level flow slowly turning more south/southwest overnight into Saturday morning, although it will be quite weak. Dry and relatively mild conditions are expected through the weekend with upper ridge rebuilding through the Northern Plains.
1259 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 Low pressure will track east of Nova Scotia overnight. A cold front will cross the region Saturday.
1258 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2023 High pressure will build across the eastern U.
Currently - A moderate high pressure system is centered over the southeastern United States and providing moderate north to northeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. The Keys remain well within a cool and dry post cold front airmass.
However, low level flow turning more 2 the SE may help limit conditions/temps turning much cooler.
A quiet and cooler day is expected today. Aloft, an open trof will continue to move away from the FA. Eventually, high pressure from the north will continue to build southward across the area this afternoon and evening. The cool high pressure will continue across the region through the overnight hours.
1115 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 Tonight and Saturday: Warmer than normal and dry tonight; then warmer than normal again Saturday but rain chances return in the northwest. The rain chances and associated cloud cover will hold afternoon highs in the 60s across our northern zones while the central and southern zones top out in the lower 70s.