Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front presently moving through southern KS and northwest OK will continue to push through the area this morning, before eventually stalling over southeast OK and northwest AR this afternoon.
A lot of dry air to overcome tonight, thus confidence in the timing of the low clouds is low. It is possible that the low clouds will be slower than what the guidance is indicating. Drizzle or freezing drizzle is possible at times on Wednesday. Lingering rain and snow along with drizzle and freezing drizzle will come to an end Wednesday night.
In the wake of the departing upper-level trough moving south and east away of the region, clearing skies and light winds developed quickly. Despite this, below freezing temperatures have been reported across the interior valleys. Also along the coast areas of below freezing temperatures are verifying this morning, perhaps some passing clouds. Dry weather conditions is expected today as a high pressure build quickly in across the West Coast from the NEPAC, though high level cloud cover increase in the evening. Further drying will occur tonight into Thursday morning as a low- level offshore develops in response to building high pressure over the Great Basin. Another round of below freezing temperatures will be likely with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s along the coast, and mid 10s to mid 20s across the interior valleys.
The first system will bring a cold front into the region later today. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front starting late this afternoon and continuing through the evening hours. Low pressure will develop along the front Thursday night. As the low moves east, more thunderstorms are expected with tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds possible. Dry and cooler weather is expected for the weekend.
503 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2023 Areas of fog and freezing fog will remain across Northern Rockies valleys (mostly northwest Montana) through late this morning.
Dew points in the low to mid 20s mean we probably won't see much in the way of snowmelt just yet, despite the above freezing temperatures.
Due to high pressure remaining in control with light and variable winds, temperatures have been able to drop again tonight as a result of radiational cooling. Deep mean layer ridging remains in place throughout the Florida Keys on this 1st day of March morning with the center of the ridge between the Cayo Romano area of Cuba and the Central Bahamas. Deep mean layer ridging remains the dominating feature again for today and will remain so through the first half of the first weekend of March. Temperatures today and Thursday are expected to be almost a carbon copy of yesterday with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s tonight with mid 70s for Thursday night.
642 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 It may seem like the forecast for our area is stuck in a warm, rain free, fog-filled loop, that's thanks to high pressure remaining in control.
For this afternoon, high pressure will dominate the sensible weather, beginning with rapidly weakening winds already heading toward sunrise. A little cooler , fall-like highs in the 50s area- wide.
Still about 24 hours out from the passage of the main upper low South of the Four Corners.
Decent bust potential for snowfall amounts tonight, although even at the highest end, would only expect 2-3 inches (at most) in the central Black Hills; currently forecasting around half an inch to an inch.
330 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 For this afternoon, high pressure will dominate the sensible weather, beginning with rapidly weakening winds already heading toward sunrise. A little cooler , fall-like highs in the 50s area- wide.
So, it seems that darn More snow will impact western WY early this morning, mainly before dawn, as an upper low dives south from the PACNW into the Desert Southwest region this morning through tonight. As the trough associated with this upper low passes through WY this afternoon into tonight, it will bring in some moisture with southerly/southwesterly flow and isentropic lift across southern portions of the area up into central portions of the area. Winds then quickly shift northwesterly, as the trough axis passes overnight.
A split trough will move into the region today, with the northern wave dropping through the region producing snow showers, mainly over the mountains and adjacent foothills this afternoon into the evening. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today, with highs in the 20s to lower 30s over the area.
Showers have all but ended this morning with high pressure building in overhead.
These warmer trajectories, along with clear skies, will help to offset the cool air advected into southwest KS behind last night's weak cold frontal passage, supporting temperatures reaching into the mid/upper 50s by mid-afternoon.
High pressure will settle in across the Northern Plains, leading to dry conditions for the rest of the day across western and central North Dakota. Even with the sun peaking through at times today, highs will be quite a bit cooler than in recent days, ranging from the upper single digits northeast to the lower 20s southwest. Temperatures will be on the rebound Thursday, with afternoon highs expected to range from the lower 20s over the Turtle Mountains to the mid to upper 30s southwest.
A lull in activity is expected through most of the morning hours on Thursday, however by the early afternoon hours, the front that pushes through here this evening will return northward as a warm front, bringing more rainfall with it.
(This evening through Thursday night) Another warm day across the region with most of the area warming into the lower and middle 80s. After tonight, all eyes will shift upstream as a strong upper level trough begins to move from Texas into the mid MS River Valley late in the period.
However, expect stratus to remain in from the north as the low pressure skirts off to the east. Additionally, a subtle mid level wave and the beginning of WAA late tonight/early tomorrow may be enough to produce some light snow showers/flurries or possibly patchy freezing drizzle along and west of the James River. With a lack of moisture, particularly in the DGZ, precip may struggle or fall as freezing drizzle. Highs Thursday remain on the cooler side, from the mid 20s to mid 30s.
241 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 High pressure will shift east overnight, opening the door for a disturbance to cross our region late tonight into early Thursday.
In addition, Denver cyclone is intensifying over Denver with strong southeast winds over south/east Denver while northerly winds are wrapping around the low across west Denver area. The heavier snow showers are beginning to dissipate but still should see snow showers increasing again later this afternoon through early evening with mesoscale forcing from the cyclone and still weak ascent aloft. The next system to contend with is the main upper low over California but is expected to track south of Colorado through southern New Mexico.
A broad upper ridge over the region will gradually shift eastward while an upper low over southern Nevada/California this evening, located in the base of a large upper trough, advances over western Texas by late Thursday afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon and Thursday should rise into the low and mid 80s inland, with mid and upper 70s along the coast.
The track of the low will determine the placement of the greatest snowfall, with some locations getting a quick 2-5 inches and others getting nothing. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory over the Owyhees, Upper Treasure Valley and Boise Mountains as the track of the low appears to be moving through those areas later this evening based on satellite analysis. Some of the high resolution guidance has 0. The meso low also produces gusty winds on the eastern side of the low, so wind gusts up to 40-50 mph are possible this evening and tonight as the low tracks through.
Details: Tomorrow, longwave trough with a bit of a positive tilt, currently located over the western CONUS, slides eastward over the Plains. This should send a cold front south through the CWA during the daytime hours. Additionally, southern stream upper low looks to advance eastward over W TX to our south. Additionally, trend in guidance over the past few runs has been to take the upper low a bit farther south, displacing best forcing for ascent.
(Tonight) South-southwest low level flow has rapidly advected mild and very moist air northward this morning, elevating dew points into the lower 60s. Despite limited sunshine, temperatures are warming into the lower to middle 70s as well.
305 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 High pressure will progress offshore this afternoon. Low pressure will pass to our north tonight.
The strong upper low is now centered over southern California with large scale lift beginning to increase from I-17 westward.
328 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 A warm front will move in late tonight and early Thursday with mostly rain, but some ice will be possible in the Catskills and the Tug Hill.
Water vapor imagery highlights a broad mean-layer ridge across the Caribbean, with the next winter storm system pressing through southern California.
1233 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 Weather stays dry and hot under the influence of high pressure today. (Today through Thursday) Models continue to show strong and deep high pressure remaining across much of the region, with the warmer than normal weather pattern prevailing through the short term.
Zonal flow across the eastern half of the CONUS continues to allow a dominant high pressure ridge axis to remain to our south in the upper levels and to the east at the surface. In the meantime, a positively-tilted trough continues to dig into the Rockies. The persistent ridging over the eastern CONUS is likely to serve as a blocking mechanism for this feature, and strong upper- level flow quickly leads to a scenario where the system becomes vertically stacked and quickly starts to occlude.
107 PM MST Wed Mar 1 2023 Water vapor shows northern stream trof moving through the Northern Rockies, with strong southern stream upper low over the far southwestern US. Strong upper low/trof is also noted over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, cold front that moved through overnight is now well south of our area, with early afternoon temps in the teens/20s over western SD and lower 30s in northeast WY. For tonight, ejecting short wave from the southwestern US upper low will merge with the northern stream trof to produce a few snow showers overnight. Winds may become a bit gusty late tonight as last night's cold front lifts back northeast as a warm front. For Thursday, dry and warmer weather expected with highs pushing back into the 30s/40s, warmest east of the Black Hills.
307 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 A warm front will move in late tonight and early Thursday with mostly rain, but some ice will be possible in the Catskills and the Tug Hill.
(Rest of today through Thursday) Models continue to show strong and deep high pressure remaining across much of the region, with the warmer than normal weather pattern prevailing through the short term.
As the low continues to move to the east, high pressure will take over, giving us light and variable winds by early Thursday morning. Temperatures will be a bit cooler with lows falling into the teens and single digits overnight tonight and 20s for highs tomorrow.
838 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 (Issued 838 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023) The cold front is making its way through the area tonight as low pressure pushes east into Michigan. Boxell (Issued 354 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023) Tonight through Thursday night: A surface cold front is approaching from Iowa this afternoon.
This weak upper trof could bring some light snow to the forecast area late tonight and Thursday. Most CAM reflectivity progs suggest a chance of measurable pcpn, and soundings according to bufr data do moisten up quite a bit overnight and also display some UVM ahead of the upper trof. Temperatures will be cold both tnt and Thursday under the influence of an arctic high pressure.
Overnight temperatures will fall to the lower to mid 70s, with lower elevations in the Keys possibly reaching the mid to upper 60s.
The deformation area of a filling area of low pressure crossing into Wisconsin this afternoon is straddling the Twin Ports giving moderate to heavy snowfall rates. The heaviest snowfall band associated with this low has stopped its northward progression and has started diving south back towards the Twin Ports. The expectation is that it will lighten up and dissipate as the low exits early this evening, but will likely give another inch or two to the Twin Ports.
A look a water vapor satellite loops today shows an atmospheric river of moisture approaching from the northwest, followed by a well-defined cold front. An associated warm front arriving this evening is forecast to increase moisture in northwest Montana, and upslope favored locations like Lookout Pass and the Glacier Region, are expected to have snow develop later this evening. A cold front is on track to pass from northwest to southeast beginning Thursday afternoon.
Although the the higher terrain could be partly obscured until 3z. The TAF has MVFR ceilings in Roseburg at 20z, but the lower conditions could develop an hour or two earlier.
High pressure is starting to build in with cold air spilling over the Montana divide. The high pressure tonight into Thursday is very short-lived.
955 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 Update Precip in the Green Bay region will spread into west-central Lwr MI overnight as a weak trough moves through.
259 PM MST Wed Mar 1 2023 Overview: An upper level low -- presently situated invof the central CA/NV border -- will dig ESE through the Desert Southwest tonight, progressing eastward across the Southern Plains (TX/OK) Thu-Thu night. Tonight: Expect a further increase in cloud cover -- in advance of the upper low progressing ESE into the Desert Southwest. With the aforementioned upper low (and strongest upper forcing) progressing eastward aross TX/OK -- well south of the Tri-State area -- forcing will be relegated to the passage of a SW-NE oriented shear-axis.
ANS Showers and thunderstorms are developing over the Mid South as a warm front surges northward over the region. Low pressure will develop along the front Thursday night. As the low moves east, more thunderstorms are expected with tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds possible. Dry and cooler weather is expected for the weekend.
650 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 Zonal flow across the eastern half of the CONUS continues to allow a dominant high pressure ridge axis to remain to our south in the upper levels and to the east at the surface. In the meantime, a positively-tilted trough continues to dig into the Rockies. The persistent ridging over the eastern CONUS is likely to serve as a blocking mechanism for this feature, and strong upper- level flow quickly leads to a scenario where the system becomes vertically stacked and quickly starts to occlude.
634 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 High pressure will shift east overnight, opening the door for a disturbance to cross our region late tonight into early Thursday.
Lows tonight will range in the single digits below zero central and east to the lower teens west. High pressure will settle in across the Northern Plains, leading to dry conditions for the rest of the day across western and central North Dakota. Even with the sun peaking through at times today, highs will be quite a bit cooler than in recent days, ranging from the upper single digits northeast to the lower 20s southwest. Temperatures will be on the rebound Thursday, with afternoon highs expected to range from the lower 20s over the Turtle Mountains to the mid to upper 30s southwest.
535 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 (Tonight) South-southwest low level flow has rapidly advected mild and very moist air northward this morning, elevating dew points into the lower 60s. Despite limited sunshine, temperatures are warming into the lower to middle 70s as well.
354 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 (Issued 354 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023) Tonight through Thursday night: A surface cold front is approaching from Iowa this afternoon.
There is a notable trough over central California into the Great Basin.
High clouds will continue stream across the area in advance of a strong upper trough to our west. By early to mid afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected to form across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma near an advancing dryline and warm front/stationary front.
305 PM MST Wed Mar 1 2023 Overview: An upper level low -- presently situated invof the central CA/NV border -- will dig ESE through the Desert Southwest tonight, progressing eastward across the Southern Plains (TX/OK) Thu-Thu night. Tonight: Expect a further increase in cloud cover -- in advance of the upper low progressing ESE into the Desert Southwest. With the aforementioned upper low (and strongest upper forcing) progressing eastward aross TX/OK -- well south of the Tri-State area -- forcing will be relegated to the passage of a SW-NE oriented shear-axis.
602 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 (Rest of today through Thursday) Models continue to show strong and deep high pressure remaining across much of the region, with the warmer than normal weather pattern prevailing through the short term.
Showers and thunderstorms are developing over the Mid South as a warm front surges northward over the region. Low pressure will develop along the front Thursday night. As the low moves east, more thunderstorms are expected with tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds possible. Dry and cooler weather is expected for the weekend.
423 PM MST Wed Mar 1 2023 Water vapor shows northern stream trof moving through the Northern Rockies, with strong southern stream upper low over the far southwestern US. Strong upper low/trof is also noted over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, cold front that moved through overnight is now well south of our area, with early afternoon temps in the teens/20s over western SD and lower 30s in northeast WY. For tonight, ejecting short wave from the southwestern US upper low will merge with the northern stream trof to produce a few snow showers overnight. Winds may become a bit gusty late tonight as last night's cold front lifts back northeast as a warm front. For Thursday, dry and warmer weather expected with highs pushing back into the 30s/40s, warmest east of the Black Hills.
Expect the snowfall to have ended by noon today across the area as ridging peaks over us. The drier air associated with the ridging should allow skies to become partly cloudy to mostly sunny by the afternoon. Thus, thinking the south central could get into the mid 30s and the west the low 30s, whereas the north central and east should only stay in the mid to upper 20s for a high temp.
Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL 130 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) Another warm day across the region with most of the area warming into the lower and middle 80s. After tonight, all eyes will shift upstream as a strong upper level trough begins to move from Texas into the mid MS River Valley late in the period.
1019 PM MST Wed Mar 1 2023 Water vapor shows northern stream trof moving through the Northern Rockies, with strong southern stream upper low over the far southwestern US. Strong upper low/trof is also noted over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, cold front that moved through overnight is now well south of our area, with early afternoon temps in the teens/20s over western SD and lower 30s in northeast WY. For tonight, ejecting short wave from the southwestern US upper low will merge with the northern stream trof to produce a few snow showers overnight. Winds may become a bit gusty late tonight as last night's cold front lifts back northeast as a warm front. For Thursday, dry and warmer weather expected with highs pushing back into the 30s/40s, warmest east of the Black Hills.
Quick update this evening to spread patchy Freezing Fog across most low elevation areas across the Snake Plain and areas south/east. High pressure is starting to build in with cold air spilling over the Montana divide. The high pressure tonight into Thursday is very short-lived.
Mostly clear tonight as an upper ridge passes through from north to south.
1246 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 A mainly quiet evening as as high pressure continues to dominate the region. Zonal flow across the eastern half of the CONUS continues to allow a dominant high pressure ridge axis to remain to our south in the upper levels and to the east at the surface. In the meantime, a positively-tilted trough continues to dig into the Rockies. The persistent ridging over the eastern CONUS is likely to serve as a blocking mechanism for this feature, and strong upper- level flow quickly leads to a scenario where the system becomes vertically stacked and quickly starts to occlude.
(This afternoon through Thursday) A muggy and near-tropical airmass has again invaded the area in the wake of this morning's warm front which has now cleared the area to the northeast.
1239 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 Aviation Precip in the Green Bay region will spread into west-central Lwr MI overnight as a weak trough moves through.
1000 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 Surface ridging spreading east has resulting in decreasing winds and mostly clear skies, though there is one expanding pocket of low stratus in far southeast ND and west central MN. Winds have also started to decrease as the tightest pressure gradient shifts southeast and ridging builds into the region. Regardless, with the low wind speeds, wind chills may be marginally hazardous, particularly in northeastern North Dakota and west of the Red River Valley.
This will eventually lift and scatter out by around mid morning with another warm and dry day ahead as mid level ridging across Cuba remains in place. However, this ridge will start to flatten a bit and shift further eastward as a potent upper level trough swings across Texas today and into the mid Mississippi Valley tomorrow.
1142 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 Surface ridging spreading east has resulting in decreasing winds and mostly clear skies, though there is one expanding pocket of low stratus in far southeast ND and west central MN. Winds have also started to decrease as the tightest pressure gradient shifts southeast and ridging builds into the region. Regardless, with the low wind speeds, wind chills may be marginally hazardous, particularly in northeastern North Dakota and west of the Red River Valley.
424 AM MST Thu Mar 2 2023 Current surface map shows high pressure across the eastern Dakotas/Minnesota with trof/stationary front across central Montana into eastern Wyoming. For the rest of the day, will be dry/warmer with highs in the 30s/lower 40s. Weak impulse crosses the Northern Plains Friday with cold front sliding through during the day.
A very dynamic upper low in Southern Arizona will move east across the Big Country this evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue after 9 PM in the Big Country, with wraparound showers and thunderstorm as the upper low moves east. Lastly, areas of dust will develop with the highs winds this afternoon and continue into the evening.
The next trough slides in tonight into Friday morning and will bring moist upslope flow to western WY. This trough will be a quick-hitter and will bring accumulating snow to the Western Mountains, the Bighorn Mountains, and Johnson County down into Natrona County as a weak cold front drops down Friday afternoon/evening.
Satellite and radar imagery is showing moisture moving into the Northern Rockies this morning associated with a weak warm front. This moisture will cause light snow in the higher terrain, especially along the Montana/Idaho border and around Glacier National Park. The cold front pushes into northwest Montana during the afternoon and makes its way over north central Idaho into west central Montana by the evening hours. A significant trough of low pressure will develop just off the Pacific Northwest coast this weekend.
438 AM MST Thu Mar 2 2023 Water vapor imagery shows a strong trough over Arizona with weak flow over Colorado. The aforementioned trough will move well to our south today. Given the trough will go so far south, it will allow for more sun across our forecast area.