Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The ridge will move off to the east tonight, with southwest flow aloft developing in advance of a large upper low digging south along the southern California coast. Winds will remain light, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 30s.
535 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 (Today) The upper low extending from southeast Oklahoma into portions of North Texas is becoming less of a nuisance early this morning, with only spotty snow showers ongoing in far southeast Oklahoma. Low clouds persist across most of the area south of I-40, but a general decreasing trend can be expected through the morning as the upper system finally dives southeastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
It could get a little warmer than forecast in those snow-free areas. Again, it could get a bit warmer in those areas.
Temps will be warm this afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 80s most locations except the extreme north where convection will help to keep temps in the mid 70s. SE flow will become more S/SW and strong and gusty through the period, with more westerly by the end of the period as the cold front pushes through the terminals. Winds and seas increasing through the day as a stalled front in place just to the north of the Tampa Bay area lifts north and then a cold front pushes through the waters tonight.
525 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper low continues to push east of the FA and is now over the eastern half of Texas. The upper low is being kicked eastward by an upper ridge currently over Arizona and New Mexico. The upper ridge will continue pushing eastward with the ridge axis moving overhead by early this evening and will dominate the region through sunrise tomorrow morning. Surface lee troughing will allow winds to be out of the south to southwest around 10-15 mph for much of the day.
407 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2023 Most recent surface analysis shows low pressure situated in northeastern Colorado, with high pressure over northern Wyoming. At the upper levels, broad ridging sits over the northern and central plains, while an upper closed low sits over the west coast.
215 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2023 No real concerns through this weekend as high pressure will control the weather through the period.
The clear skies today will also lead to relatively warm conditions with highs in the low to mid 50s. Sunday: Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with breezy winds, low humidity, and warmer temperatures.
High pressure will bring dry and stable conditions across the region through the weekend.
H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low over northeastern Texas. A trough extended south of this feature into eastern Ohio. Further west, a closed low was located just off the coast of northern California. A trough extended south of this feature to approximately 300 miles off the central coast of California. Ridging was present from the Four Corners north northeast into southern Montana. At the surface, high pressure was located over northern Missouri and was the dominant surface feature across the lower Missouri Valley.
Today starts off with flat ridging over the area that gradually flattens even more as s/w energy moves through tnt and Sunday. For Sunday, under a weak mixing regime, and more clouds, the airmass will probably be a bit cooler vs today.
405 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2023 A ridge is currently passing over the region as a strong low pressure tracks southward along the coast of California. This ridge will nudge eastward today placing us under southwest flow aloft. Depending on the coverage of clouds this afternoon highs may end up a few degrees cooler than the going forecast. Tonight the low pressure will track over southern California, which keeps southwest flow in place as well as the clouds. Tomorrow the low reaches the northern Baja and begins to turn to the eastward. Highs are expected to be a few degrees warmer than today.
542 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Great weather is expected by Sunday as an upper ridge builds into our area. The only real target of opportunity will be Sunday afternoon where MOS guidance is warmer than NBM, so have pulled temps up a tad. Mid- upper level clouds ahead of the next trough may complicate this some, otherwise expect a rather beautiful day for Super Bowl Sunday.
For the valley and points west will see temps held in check with the high albedo on the semipermanent glacier in the mid 30s for highs this afternoon. Weak wave and wind shift overnight will let temps fall into the teens for lows and keep tomorrows highs a touch cooler in the valley and 5 to 10 degrees cooler in the trees. In the wake of the wave 925mb temps will be 5 degrees cooler in the south and eastern areas than today hence the lower max temp expected tomorrow compared to today. Discussion: Temperatures remain well above average underneath a ridge through mid week before they start to drop as the pattern aloft changes and a system potentially tracks through the northern plains.
538 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will move northeast today and Sunday.
206 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2023 Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over the Great Basin, with a closed low over the Southern Plains. Accompanying the ridge was an abundance of dry air. Tonight southwest winds will be fairly light, but high enough to keep temperatures warmer given the low dew points. Temperatures will be warmer as a result. Saturday night a cold front will move through late in the night. Lows will be slightly warmer ahead of the front, only cooling to the low 20s.
While not ideal given the high clouds, decent radiational cooling may allow minT to drop below 20F tonight across the northern tier.
328 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2023 A ridge is currently passing over the region as a strong low pressure tracks southward along the coast of California. This ridge will nudge eastward today placing us under southwest flow aloft. Depending on the coverage of clouds this afternoon highs may end up a few degrees cooler than the going forecast. Tonight the low pressure will track over southern California, which keeps southwest flow in place as well as the clouds. Tomorrow the low reaches the northern Baja and begins to turn to the eastward. Highs are expected to be a few degrees warmer than today.
For tonight, the rain should begin to clear out of the area as the upper low departs from our forecast area. Overnight lows are expected to drop below freezing as the ongoing cloud cover should help limit radiational cooling across most of our CWA.
(Today and tonight) The upper low continues to push east of the FA and is now over the eastern half of Texas. The upper low is being kicked eastward by an upper ridge currently over Arizona and New Mexico. The upper ridge will continue pushing eastward with the ridge axis moving overhead by early this evening and will dominate the region through sunrise tomorrow morning. Surface lee troughing will allow winds to be out of the south to southwest around 10-15 mph for much of the day.
422 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2023 No real concerns through this weekend as high pressure will control the weather through the period.
312 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low over northeastern Texas. A trough extended south of this feature into eastern Ohio. Further west, a closed low was located just off the coast of northern California. A trough extended south of this feature to approximately 300 miles off the central coast of California. Ridging was present from the Four Corners north northeast into southern Montana. At the surface, high pressure was located over northern Missouri and was the dominant surface feature across the lower Missouri Valley.
Models have been showing a slightly more northerly path for this weekend's system, which would take the upper low from southern Alabama to northern Georgia overnight tonight and push a few bands of deeper moisture into our eastern counties after midnight tonight through mid morning tomorrow. Latest forecast soundings still show the lower levels a couple of degrees too warm to support much in the way of snow over our east, but there's still the possibility for a few flurries to mix in with rain close to sunrise as the heavier precip pulls east and cooler temperatures move into the area.
553 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 A departing upper low pressure system will cause scattered showers across north Mississippi this afternoon and cooler temps elsewhere.
This will bring slightly cooler yet still mild temperatures to the area. Tonight, dry northwest flow behind the mentioned front will bring clearing skies and slightly cooler temperatures generally in the teens to lower 20s. After some mild and dry days, chances for snow and cooler temperatures may still return mid week. A clipper system mainly in Canada will extend a trough across the area on Sunday.
328 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2023 High pressure ridge aloft over Colorado today before shifting off into the central plains tonight. Thermal ridge will also be over Eastern Colorado this afternoon with warming at 700mb to around +4c. Warmest readings again at the base of the foothills with cooler readings along the S. Models still show a weak upper trough to push eastward across the forecast area Sunday. It will bring a slightly cooler airmass to the CWA on Sunday and very little moisture. There is weak upper ridging in place Sunday night.
636 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 High pressure will build over the area today bringing quiet weather. Low pressure moving along the Carolina coast Sunday should stay mainly south of the Upper Ohio Valley area. Closed low with 250 meter height falls tracks along Carolina Coast on Sunday and out into the Atlantic Sunday night. NBM continues to have low probabilities of snow and freezing rain mainly eastern Tucker County.
The warm front may struggle to get much past NE FL, given the rain cooled airmass in place over SE GA. This will lead to the greatest chance for convective development across NE FL this afternoon and evening, as the cold front moves in from the west. The low will become fairly elongated, and possibly form two centers this evening over southern GA, as an upper low moves into the southeastern US. The surface cold front will move east of the area around midnight. With the proximity of the low the chance for a few showers will continue through the night.
309 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 Gusty winds will ease this evening as high pressure builds into New England.
1125 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Great weather is expected by Sunday as an upper ridge builds into our area. The only real target of opportunity will be Sunday afternoon where MOS guidance is warmer than NBM, so have pulled temps up a tad. Mid- upper level clouds ahead of the next trough may complicate this some, otherwise expect a rather beautiful day for Super Bowl Sunday.
1141 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 Se Mi will be on the northern edge of elongated high pressure stretching from Texas to the Ohio Valley and across the Mid Atlantic. A cut off low pressure system will be drifting across the Gulf Coast states with zonal flow setting up over the Midwest today into tomorrow. At the surface, a high pressure will be building into the Ohio River Valley bringing warmer southwest flow into Michigan. A lingering thermal trough today will hold temperatures in the low 40s before warm advection this evening brings a slightly warmer airmass for Sunday. Slightly cooler conditions each day can be expected across the Thumb.
High pressure was across the Midwest with IR satellite showing clear skies over the Corn Belt. High pressure will be at the surface with forecast soundings indicating a very dry airmass. Highs today will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s, while lows tonight bottom out in the lower to mid 20s.
(This evening through Sunday) With clear skies tonight, temperatures should drop to just below freezing due to radiational cooling. Southerly to southwesterly surface flow will continue to bring warmer air in on Sunday, bringing high temperatures into the 60s under some thin, scattered cirrus.
High pressure centered over IL/IN/OH is producing clear skies over the upper Midwest. Given the general westerly flow on the north side of the ridge, we'll see clear skies tonight and more sunshine Sunday.
Warmer with highs climbing back above normal readings.
1015 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2023 No real concerns through this weekend as high pressure will control the weather through the period.
As we move towards sunset, more clouds will envelop the area from the south and as the upper low situated to our south starts to lift northeastward, rain chances will also increase from the south. The focus for tonight's rainfall will be south of I-40 and east of I-65, for the most part, based on the current trajectory of the upper low.
Our forecast area will remain in a favorable region of large scale ascent in the difluent region ahead of the approaching upper level low, so we expect light to moderate rain to continue to overspread our region through the remainder of the afternoon.
(The rest of this afternoon through tonight) Low clouds have mostly cleared out this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma as upper low continues to move away from the region. Still some lingering snow on the ridgetops in southeast Le Flore County per latest satellite imagery. Otherwise, weak high pressure ridge at the surface will begin to slowly push south overnight with light and variable winds.
High pressure continues to weaken and shift southwest of Key West resulting in gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes.
1044 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2023 Warm start to the day today thanks to a strong ridge aloft, clear skies, and weak downslope. DEN is currently sitting at 43F, around 15 degrees warmer than at this time yesterday and warmer than yesterdays high. 9um satellite imagery where areas appear much warmer than adjacent areas. High pressure ridge aloft over Colorado today before shifting off into the central plains tonight. Thermal ridge will also be over Eastern Colorado this afternoon with warming at 700mb to around +4c. Warmest readings again at the base of the foothills with cooler readings along the S. Models still show a weak upper trough to push eastward across the forecast area Sunday. It will bring a slightly cooler airmass to the CWA on Sunday and very little moisture. There is weak upper ridging in place Sunday night.
Currently, embedded S/WV trough approaching from the west, with zonal flow ahead of this feature. Sunday will see mostly clear skies with daytime temperatures a tad cooler compared to today, with some weak CAA tonight behind the aforementioned wave moving through this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will cool on the backside of the low as it departs the area and fall back into the 40s and 30s overnight. However, in spite of the cooler temperatures aloft, it does not appear as the temperature profile will be substantially cool enough near the surface to warrant a change over to light snow. The exception to this will be in areas along the higher terrain of the Cumberland Plateau in southern middle Tennessee early Sunday morning. A dusting of snow may be possible in those areas, but with surface temperatures expected to remain above the freezing mark, no impacts are expected.
1023 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2023 A ridge is currently passing over the region as a strong low pressure tracks southward along the coast of California. This ridge will nudge eastward today placing us under southwest flow aloft. Depending on the coverage of clouds this afternoon highs may end up a few degrees cooler than the going forecast. Tonight the low pressure will track over southern California, which keeps southwest flow in place as well as the clouds. Tomorrow the low reaches the northern Baja and begins to turn to the eastward. Highs are expected to be a few degrees warmer than today.
Afternoon satellite imagery shows an upper low off the central California coast which will continue to sag south into SoCal over the next day. This will keep temps a touch cooler tomorrow compared to today but still just a few degrees below seasonal levels.
1053 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2023 Warm start to the day today thanks to a strong ridge aloft, clear skies, and weak downslope. DEN is currently sitting at 43F, around 15 degrees warmer than at this time yesterday and warmer than yesterdays high. 9um satellite imagery where areas appear much warmer than adjacent areas. High pressure ridge aloft over Colorado today before shifting off into the central plains tonight. Thermal ridge will also be over Eastern Colorado this afternoon with warming at 700mb to around +4c. Warmest readings again at the base of the foothills with cooler readings along the S. Models still show a weak upper trough to push eastward across the forecast area Sunday. It will bring a slightly cooler airmass to the CWA on Sunday and very little moisture. There is weak upper ridging in place Sunday night.
Current weather conditions are partly cloudy, with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the lower 70s. Winds will slacken as the boundary moves east into the Atlantic waters, and a high-pressure system slowly shifts eastward. The frontal boundary will usher in cooler daytime high and overnight temperatures beginning on Sunday, with daytime high temperatures ranging in the lower 70s and overnight temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.
This ample sunshine has helped to start to moderate the lingering thermal trough allowing highs across the region to creep back into the lower 40s. With no snowpack and persistent albeit lighter southwest winds, will continue to err towards the 'warmer' outcomes with lows in the upper 20s. Elongating high pressure governs local conditions through daytime Sunday leading to another day of sunny skies and spring-like temperatures as highs reach the mid to upper 40s.
1132 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper low continues to push east of the FA and is now over the eastern half of Texas. The upper low is being kicked eastward by an upper ridge currently over Arizona and New Mexico. The upper ridge will continue pushing eastward with the ridge axis moving overhead by early this evening and will dominate the region through sunrise tomorrow morning. Surface lee troughing will allow winds to be out of the south to southwest around 10-15 mph for much of the day.
The high will gradually drift to the east this evening and tomorrow, resulting in low level warm air advection as winds shift to the southwest.
Once the upper low lifts out later Sunday morning, the good push of cooler and drier air will move in and clear out the area as high pressure builds from the WNW and winds will then gradually weaken.
Southwest flow continues to bring in warmer air, allowing temps to feel quite nice with warmer than average highs expected again today. Today starts off with flat ridging over the area that gradually flattens even more as s/w energy moves through tnt and Sunday. For Sunday, under a weak mixing regime, and more clouds, the airmass will probably be a bit cooler vs today.
(This evening through Sunday) Today's perfect weather returns for an encore on Sunday, even with the passage of a sharp upper ridge this evening ahead of increasing high clouds. Modest lee troughing to our NW should again make for pleasant southwesterly zephyrs and even milder highs as thicknesses creep higher, although changes loom just beyond this period as a cold front will be found edging south from the northern TX Panhandle Sunday afternoon.
1041 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 A deep cyclone is moving east across the Lower MS Valley this morning, centered near Lake Charles, LA, as of 1030 AM CST. A strong subtropical jet is rounding the base of this low which should allow it to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours. MJ A departing upper low pressure system will cause scattered showers across north Mississippi this afternoon and cooler temps elsewhere.
A closed low over northern California will continue to move south through the day today, leading to decreasing clouds and lighter winds across our area. Temperatures today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday in most locations with temperatures near normal.
The influx of a warmer airmass from the southwest combined with full sunshine this afternoon are allowing temperatures to warm well into the 40s across the area. More mid and high level cloudiness should move across the area into Sunday night in advance of the next approaching weak frontal trough, and an accompanying mid- level impulse. This frontal trough is likely to shift into the area very late Sunday night. It appears very unlikely the area will see any precipitation from this feature as the lower level airmass looks to remain rather parched across the area.
(Tonight through Sunday night) The closed upper level low just to our east will continue moving east tonight. Ridging aloft will build over South Central Texas tonight then flatten Sunday and Sunday night as an upper level low digs into northern Baja California. Low temperatures generally in the low to mid 30s are forecast tonight, with a few locations in the Hill Country dipping into the upper 20s. Warmer tomorrow, despite some mid and high clouds, with high temperatures for most areas forecast in the 60s.
Probabilistic guidance suggests that highs tomorrow won't be as warm as MOS guidance recommends owing to the aforementioned cirrus cloud cover and attendant (albeit slight) loss of insolation; then again, if the clouds thin out more than forecast, highs could be a category warmer than forecast.
907 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2023 MORNING UPDATE: This morning, I only slightly tweaked the high temperatures for Sunday.
A vertically stacked low pressure system moving over the southeast should remain far enough south to keep us high and dry through the rest of the day. Max temps should be about 4 or 5 degrees warmer than today with sunny skies.
The closed CA low heads into the desert sw 00z Tue with a trough in the Pacific NW. The trough in the Pacific NW moves into the northern Rockies and a trough moves into the central plains 12z Tue which then heads northeast and becomes negatively tilted in the upper Mississippi Valley 00z Wed. The closed low over the desert sw heads east into the central plains 12z Thu which quickly moves northeast into the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri and becomes negatively tilted. This trough then moves off the east coast 12z Sat.
1015 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2023 Most recent surface analysis shows low pressure situated in northeastern Colorado, with high pressure over northern Wyoming. At the upper levels, broad ridging sits over the northern and central plains, while an upper closed low sits over the west coast.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: The pressure gradient will gradually relax tonight as low pressure near James Bay slides east. A weak cold front will sag slowly into eastern upper later tonight, largely dissipating as it pushes southward into drier air/ridging. Low/mid clouds will overspread much of eastern upper later tonight with this feature, possibly spilling south of the bridge by morning.
1131 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 A deep cyclone is moving east across the Lower MS Valley this morning, centered near Lake Charles, LA, as of 1030 AM CST. A strong subtropical jet is rounding the base of this low which should allow it to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours. MJ A departing upper low pressure system will cause scattered showers across north Mississippi this afternoon and cooler temps elsewhere.
249 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 * Quiet weather continues, with a warming trend High pressure and a dry atmosphere continued across central Indiana this afternoon, with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Subsidence from some brief upper ridging will also move in.
A deep, closed upper low continues to slowly churn through eastern TX into the southeastern US. Another closed upper low has pushed onshore across north-central CA with broad SW flow over the Four Corners.