Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Monday and Tuesday: A potent mid-level trough will drop southeast out of the Canadian Prairie Provinces and skirt eastern Nebraska and northern Iowa bringing down a reinforcing cold airmass.
310 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Key Messages: - Warmer today, then cooler Tuesday.
355 PM Update: A weak wave of low pressure riding along a stationary front continues to bring some showers this afternoon. Some lake effect showers still be generated and with temperatures around freezing Tuesday night, precip types will largely be snow at elevations above 1000 feet and a rain snow mix to valley floors.
A weak ridge will build overtop today allowing for dry weather due to the stability and shallow moisture. Consensus is that a large trough will move through Wisconsin by Tuesday morning.
1227 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 (This evening through Monday) Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain anchored across the Permian Basin to Rolling Plains downstream from a positively tilted upper level trough axis in an area of a mid level isentropic lift and upper level difluence, the lift unlocking elevated instability. However, as the main trough continues to move slowly eastward, this area of persistent lift will move to the east of the forecast area. Will have to watch one last area of lift associated directly with upper trough axis, but the air mass that it brings and acts on looks to be pretty well starved of moisture.
1045 PM MDT Sun Oct 29 2023 Key Messages: - Isolated light snow showers ending late aftn/early evening - Breezy to windy northwesterly winds Monday - Trending toward more seasonable temperatures Upper trough axis extends from Hudson Bay across the forecast area and then southward into the southwestern CONUS. A highly amplified upper ridge is building just off of the west coast. The upper trough and diurnal instability due to cold advection aloft have created steep lapse rates this afternoon, producing scattered to numerous light snow showers and flurries. The snow will taper off during the late aftn/early evening as synoptic scale subsidence overspreads the area behind the departing upper trough.
As the high moves towards our area, the pressure gradient will decrease and our winds will weaken. With those weaker winds, our wind chill values Tuesday morning should be similar if not a little warmer compared to this morning, even though we're expecting temperatures to be a few degrees cooler.
(Today through Tuesday Night ) The upper trough is in the Plains and moving southeast as southwest flow continues in the south and east sections of the country. This upper trough will move through Arkansas this afternoon and overnight. The high is originating from Canada and will bring cold dry air. Two counties in the southeast may not reach freezing tonight so a Frost Advisory has been issued for Drew and Dresha counties. Highs today will be in the lower 40s to lower 50s and Tuesday will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Could see a few high based CU redevelop by early afternoon before upper trough completely passes to the east but should have negligible impact.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper single digits to the mid teens, with the coldest temperatures occurring mainly over East-Central Colorado where the higher snow amounts fell. Chilly but quiet conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday as high pressure near the surfaces sits over the Central Plains. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 30s to 40s tomorrow and Tuesday, with locally cooler temperatures possible due to linger snow depths. The upper level short wave troughs continue to track well east of the region as they deepen, and the jet stream remains primarily north of the forecast area.
209 AM MDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Key Messages: - Near-advisory criteria winds today - Spotty light flurries possible late today and tonight - Temperatures warming to near-seasonable levels this week A deep upper trough axis extends from northern Ontario southwestward through the Midwest into the far SW US with brisk, northwesterly flow aloft over the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies.
350 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Key Messages: - A strong arctic cold front crosses the area tonight and brings a reinforcing shot of cold air into the area for Tuesday.
1154 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 (Tonight) The well advertised cold front is on the doorstep of NW AL this Sun evening, as it crosses into mid TN/north MS. The front will gradually continue to move SE into the area overnight, with cooler air filtering into locations along/west of I-65.
Tonight should be another chilly night, but warmer than this morning by a few degrees. An amplified ridge over the West Coast will drift eastward over the next several days, and help modify the air mass so expect temps to warm gradually this week. By mid week a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest.
Daytime temperatures warm up with conditions remaining dry Tuesday into the weekend as high pressure builds towards the west. Gusty winds will continue downslope of the high terrain overnight, while sheltered areas will remain generally calm. A much drier and cooler air mass has moved into the region following last night's cold front. Temperatures are running 10-15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday, and gusty northeast winds are making it feel even chillier.
A caveat to this though would be that the west wind may advect some cooler temperatures in as the Palmer Divide and Front Range did see higher amounts of snowfall than what was observed in the Tri- State area. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper single digits to the mid teens, with the coldest temperatures occurring mainly over East-Central Colorado where the higher snow amounts fell. Chilly but quiet conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday as high pressure near the surfaces sits over the Central Plains. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 30s to 40s tomorrow and Tuesday, with locally cooler temperatures possible due to linger snow depths. The upper level short wave troughs continue to track well east of the region as they deepen, and the jet stream remains primarily north of the forecast area.
Skies have cleared already, except for Colorado Springs/Limon southward and a few clouds clinging to the ridge tops. GOES-16 water vapor shows the departing trough moving further away from our area of responsibility. The dry air will combine with light winds owing to a broad ridge of high pressure at the surface (1030 mb) to result in excellent radiational cooling. An upper trough axis moves across the CWA Monday evening.
In addition, a slight potential for freezing fog exists early Monday morning for areas near Olympia. High pressure remains in control over the Pacific Northwest.
Cold front passes through this morning, with light rain following this afternoon. Discussion: A cold front currently located across eastern KY and Middle TN will be moving through our area this morning. A few showers may persist into the night in higher elevations due to a upslope wind component, and the highest peaks could change to snow briefly before ending late tonight. High temperatures today will likely occur in the late morning, as cold advction kicks in behind the passing cold front.
355 PM Update: A weak wave of low pressure riding along a stationary front continues to bring some showers this afternoon. A Canadian upper level trough dips into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. A short wave moves in ahead of this upper level low shifting winds to the southwest for most of the region. A brief break in precipitation is expected late morning/early afternoon before the upper level low moves Tuesday night. With temperatures near freezing Tuesday night any remaining rain showers are expected to transition to light snow showers overnight.
1238 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 This evening, a cold front remained in place across northwest Middle Tennessee with showers located northwest of the boundary. Later tonight through Monday morning, the cold front will gain some momentum, spreading showers and the leading edge of much cooler air across all of Middle Tennessee. (This afternoon through Monday Night) Not much has changed since this morning's update in regard to the position of the cold front. On the back side of this cold front, much cooler temperatures have been noted today with highs so far only in the 50's to low 60's under overcast, rainy skies. Ahead of the front, temperatures are much warmer in the 70's and even approaching 80 with more southerly winds.
347 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Wave of low pressure tracks across the area today with widespread rain. 345 AM Update: A weak wave of low pressure riding along a stationary front will push across the region today. Some lake effect showers still be generated and with temperatures around freezing Tuesday night, precip types will largely be snow at elevations above 1000 feet and a rain snow mix to valley floors.
Today and Tuesday Aside from the cooler than normal temperatures, there are no weather concerns for the next few days. The region remains on the eastern edge of an area of high pressure with strong northerly flow aloft continuing for one more day.
Skies will clear off late in the afternoon, and winds will decouple later in the evening as a WSW-ENE oriented ridge axis settles into the Ohio Valley. Even Lake Cumberland and the urban heat island of Metro Louisville will almost certainly drop below freezing, with a good shot at dipping into the upper 20s.
254 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Low pressure will track south of the area today then continue south of Nova Scotia tonight.
Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is situated in eastern Colorado. Tranquil/dry conditions are likely today and tonight as broad scale upper level troughing shifts slowly east through the Upper Midwest.
Breezy north winds will continue along the Colorado River Valley today, but otherwise fair weather is expected with temperatures several degrees cooler than average. Temperatures will moderate the remainder of the week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. Aside from the cool nights, temperatures this afternoon will remain several degrees below average - however, considerable warming is in store for the remainder of the week as a ridge of high pressure builds across the area.
215 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will track south of Pennsylvania tonight into early Monday.
311 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Wind chills Monday morning will be in the lower tens. Even colder for Tuesday morning, in the low single digits. Lows by sunrise this morning will be a touch warmer therefore, in the upper teens and 20s. Highs for Monday will be in the upper 30s to 40s, 10-15 degrees cooler than average. Monday night lows will again be in the teens to low 20s, also 10-15 degrees cooler than average. By sunrise Tuesday, we're looking at apparent temperatures in the low single digits, a few areas at elevation could be zero or slightly lower. For Tuesday a ridge begins to build in with high pressure at the surface. But thanks to that strong CAA push highs will barely break freezing.
541 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 (Today and tonight) Most of northern and western Oklahoma are below freezing already this morning and the freeze will likely be widespread enough and cold enough that we can count this is the first significant freeze of the season and no further Freeze Warnings will be necessary. Farther south though, the clouds held on long enough this morning that while some areas are down to freezing, it is not as widespread of cold as farther north.
1012 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Low pressure and a cold front will move off to the east today, allowing widespread rain to come to an end. High pressure will build into the region tonight, resulting in clearing skies and freezing temperatures. The high will quickly be replaced by another low pressure system later Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing a chance of rain and or snow showers. Drier weather will then return for mid week as high pressure builds back into the region. There is some dry air in the low levels, however expect the strength of this system to overcome this with the better chances the further north you go.
615 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Low pressure will track south of the area today then continue south of Nova Scotia tonight.
Snow showers will diminish this afternoon as deeper moisture exits and a brief period of ridging increases stability. A weak ridge will build overtop today allowing for dry weather due to the stability and shallow moisture. Consensus is that a large trough will move through Wisconsin by Tuesday morning.
Current surface analysis places low over Hudson Bay, with trough/frontal boundary stretching off to the southeast through central Manitoba into Saskatchewan. Upper level analysis places northwest flow over our area, though notable trough continues to slide southward through northern Manitoba/Saskatchewan. For today, aforementioned trough and affiliated cold front will dive through the area. With that said, the relatively warmer temperature of snow surface (i. Quite a cold night is expected as cold high pressure settles over. Lows around zero expected throughout western and north central North Dakota, with only a few clicks warmer over remaining areas.
539 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 (Today through Tuesday) A cold front is currently completing its transition through the BRO CWFA, and a few changes and additions have been made to the inherited hazards associated with the frontal passage. Next, churned and elevated seas created by the cold front passage will create a High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches until at least sunset Tuesday.
Dry and warmer weather conditions in the early week as an upper level ridge moves over the state. Later in the week an upper level trough moves in over northwestern U. Today through Tuesday An upper level ridge will strengthen over the southwestern U. , bringing in clearer skies and gradually make temperatures warmer.
Relatively quiet early this morning as the main upper trough continues to shift east of the area. Warming trend will continue through mid week, as some weak ridging aloft is noted across the region.
By sunrise, expect some subzero readings in the high mountain valleys. For tonight, there is an upper trof which will sweep through the northern plains states with a weak front which brushes northeast Colorado. Temperatures will be a bit warmer overnight given the winds and moderating the airmass. Tuesday, Colorado remains on the back side of an exiting upper level trough.
With the front offshore this morning, and the high building into the region there's still a decent amount of moisture in the lower levels (below 850 mb RH>90%) through Monday night.
After another chilly morning, mild, dry conditions will persist today under a dominant ridge of high pressure.
With CAA ongoing overnight, our northern zones are at the most risk of freezing temperatures with the 32-degree isotherm drifting slightly south of the I-30 corridor, which has prompted the upgraded Freeze Warning hazard for tonight.
KBYX radar shows that the greatest concentration of showers is across the southwestern Straits of Florida where the combination of moisture and lift convergence is the highest. Today through Tuesday, the Florida Keys coastal waters will be in between a low pressure system east of the Bahamas and a frontal system moving southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure will build into the region, bringing a gradual warming trend through midweek along with maintaining dry conditions.
(Today and tonight) Most of northern and western Oklahoma are below freezing already this morning and the freeze will likely be widespread enough and cold enough that we can count this is the first significant freeze of the season and no further Freeze Warnings will be necessary. Farther south though, the clouds held on long enough this morning that while some areas are down to freezing, it is not as widespread of cold as farther north.
Key Messages: - A strong arctic cold front crosses the area tonight and brings a reinforcing shot of cold air into the area for Tuesday.
327 AM MDT Mon Oct 30 2023 An area of high pressure will continue to dominate the region through the first half of the week.
621 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Wind chills Monday morning will be in the lower tens. Even colder for Tuesday morning, in the low single digits. Lows by sunrise this morning will be a touch warmer therefore, in the upper teens and 20s. Highs for Monday will be in the upper 30s to 40s, 10-15 degrees cooler than average. Monday night lows will again be in the teens to low 20s, also 10-15 degrees cooler than average. By sunrise Tuesday, we're looking at apparent temperatures in the low single digits, a few areas at elevation could be zero or slightly lower. For Tuesday a ridge begins to build in with high pressure at the surface. But thanks to that strong CAA push highs will barely break freezing.
440 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Current surface analysis places low over Hudson Bay, with trough/frontal boundary stretching off to the southeast through central Manitoba into Saskatchewan. Upper level analysis places northwest flow over our area, though notable trough continues to slide southward through northern Manitoba/Saskatchewan. For today, aforementioned trough and affiliated cold front will dive through the area. With that said, the relatively warmer temperature of snow surface (i. Quite a cold night is expected as cold high pressure settles over. Lows around zero expected throughout western and north central North Dakota, with only a few clicks warmer over remaining areas.
645 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Wave of low pressure tracks across the area today with widespread rain. 345 AM Update: A weak wave of low pressure riding along a stationary front will push across the region today. Some lake effect showers still be generated and with temperatures around freezing Tuesday night, precip types will largely be snow at elevations above 1000 feet and a rain snow mix to valley floors.
(Rest of Today) A cold front is approaching the I-59 corridor and will exit the forecast area within the next 1-2 hours.
545 AM MDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Aviation Section Updated An area of high pressure will continue to dominate the region through the first half of the week.
650 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Big changes in store for Alabama today as a strong cold front pushes through the area. Behind the front, northwest winds at 10-15 mph will usher in much cooler air, with temperatures falling into the 50s for areas north of I-59 by mid afternoon. Temperatures will warm quickly south of the cold front, with readings climbing into 70s and lower 80s along and southeast of the I-85 corridor.
This feature subsequently triggers surface cyclogenesis allowing a weak closed low to develop by early Tuesday. This low should then swing southward over Lake Michigan and into northern Indiana. Beginning with the most likely effects regardless of precipitation potential, is gusty winds associated with the system's strengthening surface cold front. Model soundings show a small positive area located in the dendritic growth zone, along with a dry surface layer so that wet-bulb temps are below freezing.
824 AM MDT Mon Oct 30 2023 An area of high pressure will continue to dominate the region through the first half of the week.
Key Messages: - Warmer today, then cooler Tuesday.
Temperatures will slowly drop over the course of the day, and then remain below normal through the majority of the week with temperatures falling near or below freezing Tuesday morning. Temperatures will continue to steadily drop overnight, down to below freezing for most locations by Tuesday morning with most of the area below freezing by early Tuesday morning.
649 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night ) The upper trough is in the Plains and moving southeast as southwest flow continues in the south and east sections of the country. This upper trough will move through Arkansas this afternoon and overnight. The high is originating from Canada and will bring cold dry air. Two counties in the southeast may not reach freezing tonight so a Frost Advisory has been issued for Drew and Dresha counties. Highs today will be in the lower 40s to lower 50s and Tuesday will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
409 AM MDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Key Messages: - Near-advisory criteria winds today - Spotty light flurries possible late today and tonight - Temperatures warming to near-seasonable levels this week A deep upper trough axis extends from northern Ontario southwestward through the Midwest into the far SW US with brisk, northwesterly flow aloft over the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies.
Other than a few high clouds spilling through the eastern Pacific ridge into NorCal, skies remain clear. North and east surface pressure gradient continues (but isn't quite as strong as over the weekend) with easterly gusts of 15-30 mph still prevalent across the northern Sierra ridges, and local northerly gusts of 15-25 mph remaining along the western edge of the Sacramento Valley. Current temperatures are mostly considerably cooler compared to 24 hours ago across much of the Central Valley due to lighter wind. In the mountains, the colder valleys are in the 20s while milder ridgetops are mainly in the 40s to lower 50s. Milder daytime temperatures are expected across much of the region the next several days as the eastern Pacific ridge moves overhead.
Dry conditions also prevail as high pressure builds over the region, but some brush-by systems may bring some increasing breezes and shower chances late week. It's still feeling like the dead of winter this morning with low temperatures once again dipping into the low 20s for western NV valleys and single digits to teens for Sierra valleys.
639 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 * Dry weather expected over the next 7 days across the region * Colder below temperatures to start the week followed by a nice warming trend into the weekend Colder than normal temperatures and dry weather conditions will prevail this period as strong high pressure dominates over the region.
614 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 (Today) Observed temperatures at midnight this evening will likely be todays high temperature as a strong cold front is approaching the area from the northwest.
907 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Low pressure will track south of the area today then continue south of Nova Scotia tonight.
957 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Wave of low pressure tracks across the area today with widespread rain. 345 AM Update: A weak wave of low pressure riding along a stationary front will push across the region today. Some lake effect showers still be generated and with temperatures around freezing Tuesday night, precip types will largely be snow at elevations above 1000 feet and a rain snow mix to valley floors.
Temperatures are already above freezing for nearly every location, with clouds clearing out across the north today. Other than this last hurrah of precipitation today, the remainder of the short term will be dry as upper level ridging rebuilds across the west and dry northwesterly flow aloft returns.
1238 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 * Dry weather expected over the next 7 days across the region * Colder below temperatures to start the week followed by a nice warming trend into the weekend Colder than normal temperatures and dry weather conditions will prevail this period as strong high pressure dominates over the region.
1223 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Wind chills Monday morning will be in the lower tens. Even colder for Tuesday morning, in the low single digits. Lows by sunrise this morning will be a touch warmer therefore, in the upper teens and 20s. Highs for Monday will be in the upper 30s to 40s, 10-15 degrees cooler than average. Monday night lows will again be in the teens to low 20s, also 10-15 degrees cooler than average. By sunrise Tuesday, we're looking at apparent temperatures in the low single digits, a few areas at elevation could be zero or slightly lower. For Tuesday a ridge begins to build in with high pressure at the surface. But thanks to that strong CAA push highs will barely break freezing.