Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Evening surface analysis depicts a weak secondary cold frontal trough moving southeast across WI, in association with a mid-level short wave tracking across the northern/western Great Lakes region per GOES vapor imagery. Surface winds across the area should become somewhat light and variable this evening, but should trend back light northerly early Sunday morning in the wake of the subtle trough passage. Highs this afternoon will top out in the low to potentially mid 80s away from the lake. Expect scattered cumulus and highs in the lower 80s inland and 70s near the shore with an afternoon lake breeze.
1223 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Mid-level ridge will continue to build into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley over the course of the weekend. While areas in the Lower Rio Grande Valley and along the coast will see high temperatures in the upper 90s.
Expect high pressure to linger through the middle of the week before the next system approaches from the northwest towards the end of the week.
311 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Today will feature mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures. The cooler conditions will continue through much of the work week.
Subtropical ridging remains stalled over the Four Corners region with the 250 mb anticyclonic circulation continuing to expand as a belt of 50+ kt flow arcs around the northern periphery of the ridge center. , warmer low temperatures) in vicinity of LBB and due to the expectation of similar observations as seen over prior mornings as the CWA remains locked in the barotropic airmass.
Surface ridging currently west of MI builds eastward toward MI on Monday but guidance is still suggesting the possibility of scattered showers/storms over northeast lwr MI and the Thumb area where sfc convergence will be maximized.
It will be another hot day with the lower elevations East of the Divide seeing high temperatures well into the 90s.
626 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 (Today through Monday) The upper ridge is expected to build over the region during the period. The GFS/ECMWF/NAM predict 500mb heights, and the GFS predicts 1000-500mb thickness values, to increase slightly over the region from 00z Sunday to 00z Monday, suggesive of slightly warmer maximum temperatures today. The GFS/NAM predict drier conditions Monday, yet Heat Advisory conditions remain possible given the likelihood of slightly warmer tempeatures than today.
This can be seen eroding the narrow corridor of drier air over the Lower Keys extending northeastward into the South Florida Peninsula.
Expect high pressure to linger through the middle of the week before the next system approaches from the northwest towards the end of the week. Broad troughing just to the east of the CWA may allow a few afternoon showers to sneak into NW PA Monday afternoon, but rain chances are very low.
Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are then expected through mid week under high pressure. Issued a Special Weather Statement alerting morning travelers of the lower visibilities in fog across portions of the area.
622 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through the first half of the week.
618 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge will continue to slowly shift eastward today, with a slight increase in afternoon highs today.
A weak sfc cold front is slowly pushing south through central KY. Northerly flow will advect slightly cooler, less humid air into the region today in the wake of the weak front. That will help make for a pleasant Monday morning with mainly clear skies and lows in the low to mid 60s. Amplified upper level ridging over the central CONUS and troughing in the eastern CONUS will set the stage for a dry NW flow aloft regime across the lower Ohio Valley and upper Tennessee Valley to start off the week.
The Mid-South rmns situated between an upper rdg axis to the west and long wv trof acrs the eastern states, resulting in a NWly flow ovr the FA.
It's a bit more uncertain if additional showers/tstms will redevelop later today, as a weak cold front settles into the area. In any case, lingering cloud cover will likely keep afternoon highs more in the upper 80s/lower 90s, which is a few degrees cooler compared to the last few days.
Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are then expected through mid week under high pressure. Issued a Special Weather Statement alerting morning travlers of the lower visibilities in fog across portions of the area.
626 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 (Today through Monday night) The H500 high pressure center shifts a bit further to the east at the start of the new week. Surface temperatures will be the highest at Palo Duro Canyon, but should stay below 105 degrees for both days.
Both the GFS and the ECWMF show a sfc cold front stretching across the Mid-South today.
712 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Morning clouds will give way to plentiful sunshine this afternoon with low humidity and highs in the low to mid 70s.
As of 2am, some light showers linger in our southeast as a weak cold front makes its way out of the area. A thunderstorm complex expected to develop over the High Plains today may make its way down into our area by tonight/early Monday morning, but uncertainty is high. As the upper level ridge pushes east, hotter temperatures will begin to spread across our whole area from the west.
613 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Isolated mountain showers today with a cold front to our south. Dry, cooler, and less humid with high pressure through mid week. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80's with cooler dewpoints means that we will not be near advisory criteria for heat today, therefore more comfortable weather will be promoted. Key Points: * Cooler and drier for the first half of the week.
Leading into the week, our region will continue to be influenced by upper level highs: to our east over the western Atlantic and to our west over the Gulf. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices from 100-110 across South FL. The heat will continue with highs in the low-to-mid 90s, and with the additional humidity, heat indices will be rising to 105-110.
1030 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Morning clouds will give way to plentiful sunshine this afternoon with low humidity and highs in the low to mid 70s.
Upper-level ridging continues through next several days, resulting in warmer temperatures across lower elevations. Broad upper-level ridging continues across much of western CONUS, resulting in yet another day of warmer temperatures, especially across the plains of Central Montana. In fact, the next several days will exemplify afternoon temperatures well above seasonal average, with temperatures in the low- to mid-90s for many lower elevation locations. 0 C/Km, and bulk shear above 40 kts - favorable conditions that would support supercells if it wasn't for the higher CIN values, resulting in more isolated to discrete storms instead. The aforementioned upper- level ridge remains intact through at least mid-week, as suggested by cluster analysis.
The surface map early this morning featured high pressure extending from Saskatchewan to the Great Lakes, and a wavy front from northern parts of Kansas and Missouri to central Kentucky. Meanwhile, aloft, there was a broad ridge over the Rockies and a vortex over northern Quebec resulting in fast northwest flow over the Great Lakes. The synoptic pattern will continue to place central Indiana in a NW flow regime between an intermountain west ridge and a trough over the northeast. This ridge/trough pattern is expected to amplify due to rex blocking upstream, leading to a higher magnitude jet stream related to supergeostrophic tendencies. As mentioned, the amplifying pattern will help lead to moisture convergence across the central Plains creating a corridor of instability located roughly along the northern edge of the western ridge (from South Dakota southeast into Missouri).
529 AM MDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge centered over the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains will persist. Given that the Tri-State area is situated beneath the ridge.
Expect slightly warmer temperatures today with chances of thunderstorms this morning and again tonight. Thus the strongest storms should generally remain along and west of the Highway 83 corridor. After this activity moves out this morning, we should see mainly dry weather through the afternoon as a ridge axis to our west approaches. With the ridge axis nudging closer, expect slightly warmer temperatures today with highs in the upper 70s across the eastern Turtle Mountains, to the mid to upper 80s over the southwest. Tonight's lows will generally be in the mid 50s to the lower 60s.
The weather pattern does not change much at all over the coming week with upper ridging to our southwest. Expect northwest flow aloft with frequent influence from embedded short wave troughs.
H5 ridging will work into the region starting today, allowing temps to begin an upward trend that is expected to persist through mid- week. High temperatures should be able to reach the lower to middle 80s.
Northwest California will remain in between an upper trough over the Gulf of Alaska extending southwestward into the NE Pacific and a massive-dominating ridge centered over the southern U. Coastal average highs are in the lower to mid 60's and cool.
932 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through the first half of the week.
744 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Surface/RAP analysis early this morning indicates further strengthening of the western ridge and the correlating subsidence downstream. By daybreak, those interior west areas could dip into the low 40s.
Highs will top out between 101-106 degrees today and a little warmer on Monday. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Monday/ Mid level ridging will continue to build into North Texas through Monday keeping things hot and dry across the region. Temperatures will continue to climb today with highs between 101-106 areawide and even warmer on Monday where highs will likely be between 104-110 degrees. Strong subsidence associated with the ridge and deep vertical mixing will allow dewpoints to fall into the mid 50s and lower 60s, limiting heat indices to near actual air temperatures.
637 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 (Today and tonight) High pressure aloft will continue to gradually strengthen across much of the region, keeping hot and dry conditions over West Central Texas over the next 24 hours. With this gradually strengthening high pressure will come gradually increasing afternoon high temperatures.
833 AM MDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Upper-level ridging continues through next several days, resulting in warmer temperatures across lower elevations. /ISSUED 515 AM MDT Sun Jul 30 2023/ Broad upper-level ridging continues across much of western CONUS, resulting in yet another day of warmer temperatures, especially across the plains of Central Montana. In fact, the next several days will exemplify afternoon temperatures well above seasonal average, with temperatures in the low- to mid-90s for many lower elevation locations. 0 C/Km, and bulk shear above 40 kts - favorable conditions that would support supercells if it wasn't for the higher CIN values, resulting in more isolated to discrete storms instead. The aforementioned upper- level ridge remains intact through at least mid-week, as suggested by cluster analysis.
(Today through Monday) The upper ridge is expected to build over the region during the period. The GFS/ECMWF/NAM predict 500mb heights, and the GFS predicts 1000-500mb thickness values, to increase slightly over the region from 00z Sunday to 00z Monday, suggesive of slightly warmer maximum temperatures today. The GFS/NAM predict drier conditions Monday, yet Heat Advisory conditions remain possible given the likelihood of slightly warmer tempeatures than today.
Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are then expected through mid week under high pressure. troughing with NW flow over the Ohio River Valley will provide seasonable temperature this afternoon. High pressure and loss of heating should return dry weather tonight, with dry advection supporting clearing clouds.
Cooler and less humid through mid week. Monday looks to be another stellar day with afternoon highs across the lowlands in the low 80s with dew points mid 50s amid a light northerly wind.
(Tonight through Monday night) The upper level high is centered over southeastern CO this afternoon. In the short term the upper high will shift toward the east moving over Texas. Overnight tonight will be mostly clear and slightly warmer. Lows will be a degree or two warmer than this morning. The shift of the upper high will make Monday a little hotter than today. The western counties will not have any advisory or warning due to the higher criteria there.
An inverted trough rounding the southern edge of a broad high will continue to slowly move across West Texas. This will put a dent in the large scale descent (sinking air) provided by the ridge and aid in shower development. While the center of the upper level ridge continues to sit north of the area, temperatures sit a few degrees above average both overnight and during the day on Monday. The higher elevations will be slightly cooler in the low 90s.
1115 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 A cold front moved through the NW portion of TN and has anchored over Northern MS.
121 PM MDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Monsoonal moisture is cresting the ridge and flowing over the forecast area today.
231 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 High pressure builds into the area tonight, and will remain in control of the weather pattern for the early half of the work week.
Meanwhile the last couple runs of the HRRR has been consistent with the storms forming over the higher elevations of central Montana reaching the CWA and merging more into a bowing quasilinear complex, moving to the northeast.
1130 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Latest surface analysis this morning shows a weak cold front near the northern edge of the forecast area with considerable cloud cover across most of the area and a large area of showers moving slowly southeast from southwest Virginia into northeast Tennessee. Cooler temperatures expected today. But confidence isn't very high as most CAMs have done very poorly with convective initiation during the northwest flow on the periphery of the ridge. Temperatures today are expected to be about 5+ degrees cooler than the last few days.
Cooler and less humid through mid week. Monday looks to be another stellar day with afternoon highs across the lowlands in the low 80s with dew points mid 50s amid a light northerly wind. Key Points: * Cooler and drier for the first half of the week.
113 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through the first half of the week.
233 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 High pressure will slowly build towards the region through the middle half of the week, leading to drier and slightly below average temperatures. Unsettled weather returns late week into the weekend as high pressure shifts offshore and the next area of low pressure approaches. Highs today will top out in the low to mid 80s for the lower elevations and 70s for the higher terrain. Overnight lows will be in the 60s for most areas with some places along the Allegheny Font dropping into the low to mid 50s. River valley fog is possible tonight across the high elevations valleys in the Potomac Highlands and points westward. Daytime highs will be slightly below normal, in the lower to mid 80s for most while 70s across the higher elevations.
Midday water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a ~598 dm subtropical ridge is centered roughly over Trinidad, CO, with longwave troughing over the eastern CONUS and a strong cut-off low just off the southwest shore of British Columbia, Canada. This cut-off low will slowly make its way east through the short term period, pushing the subtropical ridge southeastward with time. As the ridge passes nearly overhead of southwest KS, strong synoptic-scale subsidence will allow 850-mb temperatures to warm into the upper 20s/low 30s Celsius today, which will translate to unpleasant afternoon highs in the upper 90s/near 100. Based on latest CAM/HREF guidance, this scenario appears quite unlikely, and therefore the inherited dry forecast was maintained with lows in the low 70s.
1219 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 (Today and tonight) High pressure aloft will continue to gradually strengthen across much of the region, keeping hot and dry conditions over West Central Texas over the next 24 hours. With this gradually strengthening high pressure will come gradually increasing afternoon high temperatures.
247 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Short Term/Marine Models continue to have good consensus in the timing and passage of a large upper level low situated over northeast Canada. The sole caveat will be as the low shifts eastward. The downsloping, convergent flow coming off the high could have just enough moisture to couple with through the mid level to perhaps cause showers through the eastern half of Lower Michigan tomorrow afternoon. There is some mid to upper level support for this as the positively tilted trough will have a weak short wave emanating through the mid levels. There is some mid level moisture so the only question will be if the lower levels will be to dry.
(This evening through Monday Night) Upper-level ridge across the desert southwest and extending into Texas and across the ArkLaTex to maintain hot conditions through the short-term period ending Monday night. A few high-res models have suggested that isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may be possible on the eastern periphery of the ridge across south Arkansas and north Louisiana on Monday.
The axis of high pressure will slowly retreat eastward tonight but will be the dominant influence and keep the region void of precipitation until the early morning hours on Monday.
* Upper level ridging will persist, but a frontal boundary will impact location of hottest temperatures and thus heat concerns. * Pattern change coming, bringing a cooler and wetter period. Upper level ridging will persist with the axis of the ridge slowly sliding eastward with time. Currently heat index values look to be in the low 100s, not exceeding the 105 Heat advisory criteria. However, along and north of the boundary, while it won't be as warm, dew points look to pool, and so those slightly cooler temperatures could be deceiving. By mid-week an upper disturbance will break down the ridge as it moves across the intermountain west. This disturbance will help bring a pattern change that will bring in cooler and wetter conditions. The CPC 8-14 day outlook indicates cooler and wetter conditions compared to normal as well.
352 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Scattered showers and storms are possible Monday with drier conditions expected by midweek as high pressure builds in. Quite pleasant this afternoon compared to the past couple of days with much lower humidity (dewpoints generally in the 60s) and temperatures in the mid 80s thanks to high pressure just off to our northwest. High temperatures will range from the low to mid 80s across the northern half of the area to the mid to upper 80s south.
1222 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 (Today through Monday night) The H500 high pressure center shifts a bit further to the east at the start of the new week. Surface temperatures will be the highest at Palo Duro Canyon, but should stay below 105 degrees for both days.
133 PM MDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge centered over the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains will persist. Given that the Tri-State area is situated beneath the ridge. Guidance continues to show the upper ridge over the area deamplifying with the ridge then reamplifying over the west.
(The rest of today ) H5 ridge center is over SW KS/NW OK, with some decent northerly flow over AR to the east.
Expect slightly cooler morning temperatures and lower dew points, which will keep a Heat Advisory at bay for Monday.
Partly cloudy skies in the afternoon hours, high temperatures in the lower 80s.
There remains a good signal from the models for increasing warm air advection around 03Z as the low level jet strengthens and veers more to the southwest.
1209 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 Isolated mountain showers today with a cold front to our south. Dry, cooler, and less humid with high pressure through mid week. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80's with cooler dewpoints means that we will not be near advisory criteria for heat today, therefore more comfortable weather will be promoted. Key Points: * Cooler and drier for the first half of the week.
This is being driven by a pre-frontal axis that has also moved south of the mid TN Valley, while the main cold front remains north of the area. This front should likewise move southward thru the area later tonight, ushering in some slightly cooler/drier air.
Ridging will be pushing to our south tonight switching to our southwest. At the same time we are looking at an upper level trough pushing through Georgia that should make it into our area by morning. Ridging over the area continues to bring lighter winds to the Gulf waters today. The ridge, however, will shift south tonight bringing our west to southwest flow back in place with slightly higher winds. We are also looking at an upper level trough moving into the area early in the morning hours.
Dewpoints remain relatively high today in the lower to middle 70's meaning heat index values will likely top out around the 105 to 110 degree range across most of the forecast area.
Cooler temperatures today and tonight. Discussion: At the surface a weak boundary or front was located over southern KY with a low pressure area over southern WV. A pre frontal trough and more significant boundary lies far to the south over north AL and GA with stronger convection just south of that boundary in AL.
Flow around strong high pressure centered over Colorado, will steer monsoonal moisture and disturbances our way over the next few days, increasing the chance for occasional showers and thunderstorms.
(This evening through Monday night) A 594-597dm ridge will be set up over the Southern Plains through at least this short-term period.
Confidence in how far east the instability gradient pushes tonight is lowered, and may be something to monitor as upstream mid level impulses can be seen on water vapor satellite imagery rounding the crest of the developing upper ridge over MT into AB and SK. H5 ridging will work into the region starting today, allowing temps to begin an upward trend that is expected to persist through mid- week. High temperatures should be able to reach the lower to middle 80s.
Upper level analysis places high over Colorado, with ridge northward through Montana into western Saskatchewan.
That mid-level flow pattern being a Rockies/Western High Plains ridge and eastern CONUS trof. Ridge riding s/ws will continue to be our nemesis for the next few days, lending some uncertainty to timing/location of convective outbreaks. Water vapor imagery early this afternoon is showing several s/ws within or topping the ridge. The main sfc/mid level baroclinic zone will exist over the western Dakotas and Nebraska, and that's where the highest potential exists for svr activity.
245 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 GOES Water Vapor and RAP analysis highlight well the ridge/trough pattern across CONUS today. Within this flow, Upper Michigan has been under the influence of surface ridging and northwest flow aloft. Daytime highs have warmed mostly into the 70s across the region, and diurnal mixing has supported minimum RH values in the region dipping into the 40s and in some places, the high 30s.
1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge will continue to slowly shift eastward today, with a slight increase in afternoon highs today.
139 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023 GOES Water Vapor and RAP analysis highlight well the ridge/trough pattern across CONUS today. Within this flow, Upper Michigan has been under the influence of surface ridging and northwest flow aloft. Daytime highs have warmed mostly into the 70s across the region, and diurnal mixing has supported minimum RH values in the region dipping into the 40s and in some places, the high 30s.