Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak cold front will push into our region later this morning, bringing mainly just a wind shift to the N and some drier air. Temperatures will continue to push upwards as upper ridging builds into the region. Light northerly surface winds will probably remain into Friday for many of our eastern counties, but as the upper ridge axis nears we can expect further warming and likely record highs on Friday, climbing into the low to mid 90s.
457 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Key Points: * A cold front will move through the area late Thursday night into Friday, bringing some much needed rain. and accompany the cold front that will pass through the area. Aloft, an approaching trough will deepen as it tracks through the Ohio Valley, dropping heights from 573 to 550 dam, all while taking on a slight negative tilt. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across eastern Kentucky late tonight into Friday. Two main lobes of energy rounding the mean trough aloft will tend to bring two rounds of rainfall to the area, the first ahead of and with the surface front late today and tonight and a second during the day Friday.
(Today through Friday Night) A spy with my eye a front! But is it a 'real' cold front? Eh. The lower humidity will once again allow evening and overnight temperatures to drop quickly on Friday night with lows in the upper-50s to low-60s.
1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Midevening GOES water vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively-tilted upper low centered over IA. PWB A few light showers, moving along and ahead of a surface cold front, will enter the region this evening and continue through tomorrow evening.
1226 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 (The rest of tonight) A cold front near the I-44 corridor this evening will sweep through the area overnight.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Hard to get hotter than yesterday's record highs, and we will in fact be cooler today. Compressional warming ahead of the cold front surged temperatures above forecast yesterday, but a slightly cooler airmass behind the weak cold front will bring highs down a few degrees today. A southerly return flow develops today that will only send temperatures warmer tomorrow.
(Today through Friday) A potent low pressure system works into the Great Lakes and deepens the mid level trough across the eastern CONUS into the weekend. This strengthens the mid-level ridge of high pressure in control across Texas and brings additional dry air into Friday. Light downsloping winds are expected by late this morning across the lower RGV, so have leaned toward higher guidance. A potential limiting factor would be some of the higher clouds streaming across the region from Hurricane Norma in the EastPac.
(Today) Clear skies and somewhat milder conditions prevailed across the Tennessee Valley, as high pressure to our east moves off shore. Temperatures so far tonight ranged from the lower 40s NE Alabama to mid 50s at Huntsville with light winds. A cold front trailing southward from this low will bring an increase in clouds, and chances of showers to the area later today. High temperatures later today, before shower activity becomes more of an issue should warm into the lower 70s. A tightening gradient as the cold front nears should result in SW winds increasing into the 10-15 mph range with some gusts to 20 mph.
336 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather today, along with warmer temperatures.
Continued dry conditions as the ridge axis aloft translates eastward into Wyoming and slowly flattens. Somewhat cooler temperatures Friday night in the wake of a weak cold front. A long lived upper-level ridge will persist into the weekend, overall with great weather.
The mid-level pattern will be characterized by weakening closed low swinging from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley while a Southwest ridge amplifies over the West CONUS. At the lower levels, decent dynamics ahead of the approaching cold front will overcome to some extent the poor thermodynamic environmental to allow a chance of scattered showers and isolated storms. This "second wave" will have slightly improved moisture advection associated with the renewed LLJ and better mid-level forcing considering the location of the trough with respect to the rain axis. The upper trough axis will be along the I-75 corridor Friday morning and will advance to the Appalachians by evening.
152 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Ridge of high pressure over the area will keep sunny dry and breezy conditions in place into the weekend. Southeast Montana will be a few degrees cooler with northwest flow over the plains allowing slightly cooler air to flow through those areas. Afternoon winds will gust 20 to 30 mph at times, and overnight winds will remain breezy especially in the higher hilltop locations.
This low will drag a cold front across the PAH forecast area today into tonight, accompanied by a deepening upper level trof. However, by late this afternoon and tonight, models are in better agreement showing showers developing across our eastern half of counties more in concert with the deepening upper trof.
An upper level low continues to progress eastward into Minnesota with some wrap winds bringing windy conditions to region. Cooler air continues to filter into the region behind the upper level low. An upper level ridge is forecast to build over Western CONUS by the middle of the week moving into Great Basin by the end of the week. The Northern Plains is going to remain in weak northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge. Increased heights will bring in warmer temperatures to region. A cold front is forecast to move into the region late Friday bringing forth a cooling trend through the weekend.
- Warmer temperatures briefly return for Friday with gusty winds.
1121 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Low pressure will approach from the west overnight and track across the Upper Great Lakes Thursday, bringing a chance for rain. An associated cold front will push east through the region Thursday night into Friday, offering continued rain chances along with the threat for a thunderstorm.
The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis is showing an amplified ridge over the western portion of the country, with a cutoff low north and east of the CWA. This is giving the region NW flow aloft, that will persist into the Fri-Fri night timeframe, with the upper ridge making a slow trek eastward through the Rockies. On Friday, W/NW flow will envelope the area as a dry frontal/trough passage brings yet another dry day to the CWA. For temps, looking for daytime highs on Thursday to top off in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Warmer going into Friday with mainly mid to upper 80s forecasted. Overnight lows tonight will mainly drop in the lower to mid 40s. From the latest GFS/ECMWF, amplified upper ridge over the western portion of the country for the upcoming weekend will allow for NW aloft.
The line of showers and storms will move off the Plateau prior to midnight but additional showers are possible through Friday morning as a lobe of energy moves through troughing. Rain chances will shut off by Friday afternoon as the large scale trough axis moves east of the area.
Deeper mixing from these strong winds along with downsloping flow off of the Buffalo Ridge could result in afternoon highs reaching the 70s across western Minnesota, with highs in the mid 60s likely elsewhere. A few bands of -SHRA will rotate around with the circulation of the low, producing MVFR visibilities of short-duration from time to time tonight.
This is associated with a frontal zone ahead of an approaching mid-upper trough. Extensive cloud cover shold keep highs generally in the low to mid 60s. However, another mid-upper level impulse within the upper trough will move in overnight supporting the development of more showers. Wet and unsettled weather will continue for Friday as an upper trough amplifies across the region.
(Today) A weak and subtle cold front continues to push through the TSA CWA early this morning. Slightly cooler high temperatures -- low-mid 70s -- are expected across far NE OK and far NW AR.
High pressure will remain established over the western U.
(Today through Friday) Upper ridging centered over the Appalachians and over Nevada this morning with a sharp trough running from the Great Lakes to the Iowa-Illinois border to north Texas. At the surface, high pressure extended along the Atlantic Coast into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure over Wisconsin had a cold front to near Kansas City into north Texas. The upper trough to our northwest will push across the area later this afternoon and evening. It gets increasingly difficult to find a legitimate frontal boundary across the local area with the passage of the upper trough. NAM/ECMWF guidance is generally 3-5F cooler.
Clouds increase Friday ahead of an area of low pressure approaching from the southwest.
1209 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) The only exciting system in the short term is an upper level low situated over the northern Plains, sending a backdoor cold front down to our area today. With this wind shift, weak CAA on Thursday looks to help mitigate afternoon warming, and highs for the afternoon should top out in the low to mid 80s, still above normal. As the upper low moves into the Mississippi Valley Thursday night, upper ridging will begin to rebuild across the west and temperatures will warm quickly for the end of the week. As thicknesses slowly increase, lows Friday morning should be a few degrees warmer than Thursday, mainly in the 50s.
358 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 (Issued 358 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023) Today and Tonight: A closed upper low tracked through eastern IA last evening and across northern IL overnight into early this morning. Southern WI is in the dry slot, but there is a small chance for a shower or two along the WI/IL border due to the deeper moisture and cyclonic flow, closest to the center of the upper low. Highs should manage to get into the lower 60s with breaks in the clouds today. Once the base of the trough clears southern, WI, showers should end, but low clouds will prevail the rest of the night.
Scattered showers will spread across the Mid-South today as a cold front moves across Arkansas. The cold front will cross the Mississippi River tonight with more showers and a few thunderstorms possible.
An area of low pressure will spiral across our region tonight and tomorrow with clusters of rain showers upon it. High pressure off the New England Coast will allow for increasing southwesterly flow into Thursday. The upper level trough will be slow to progress eastward which delays the arrival of the cold front until Thursday night. The region then should see increasing isentropic lift ahead of the upper level trough and approaching cold front on Thursday. Warmer Thursday with highs into the 60's for all but portions of the Southern Tier. Breezy conditions are expected Thursday night as a cold front moves into Western NY through Friday morning. Rain spreads from west to east Thursday night into Friday as the trough digs across the area.
1052 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Northwesterly surface winds behind a weak cold front will keep overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s across the area.
(Today through Friday night) Today and Friday will see ridging pass across the region bringing fair weather and light winds to the panhandles. This ridge will cause abnormally hot temperatures across the panhandles for both days with Friday seeing the zenith of the heat. However the majority of the panhandles should be slightly cooler remaining in the 80s.
A well defined H5 ridge will continue to shift east over the Rocky Mountains heading into the weekend leading to continued warm, quiet, and dry conditions with plenty of sunshine. As the ridge axis shifts east for Friday, look for a repeat of Thursday's weather with best chances for near record to record daily high temperatures again in Stanley and Challis.
419 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather today, along with warmer temperatures.
/Issued 1259 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023/ /Through Friday/ A pair of abnormally warm days will close out the workweek despite the arrival of a weak cold front this morning. In fact, today's highs will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday's as the dry air in place both ahead of and behind the front readily warms with daytime heating. Expect even warmer temperatures for Friday afternoon as upper ridging continues to build across the western half of the country, but light wind speeds should preclude elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow. /NEW/ /Friday night Onward/ Dry and warm conditions continue this weekend as high pressure remains in control.
(Today and tonight) Upper-level troughing moves into the area today, though the cold front lags behind. As the cold front approaches tonight, we'll see the chance for a few showers across the southeast Alabama counties late tonight.
With winds diminishing on Thursday night, but mild air in place lows will be a bit cooler bit still above normal. An upper ridge builds in with strong WAA that will keep things unseasonably warm for Friday. North of I-90 will reach the low 70s.
Arkansas is currently on the west side of a high pressure circulation (centered over the east coast), with southerly flow and mostly clear conditions. A cold front is currently moving across the central US and will move across Arkansas late tonight through early Thursday, as an upper low and trough move from the north-central states into the Midwest region. The trough will extend far south across the southern states, its axis moving across the forecast area during the overnight period tonight. Overnight rain chances are forecast ahead of the approaching cold front, but should come to an end before sunrise Thursday. Wind direction and lower-end rain chances look to be the most noticeable impact from the cold front. Afternoon temperatures Thursday will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s, cooler across the north, where the wind shift occurs earlier.
Morning temperatures are on track to be in the low 50s west side with upper 30s and low 40s otherwise through the weekend. This will put spots at 5 to 15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year! Highs will peak tomorrow with more mid-/upper 70s and low 80s, and Friday's highs will be similar but not as warm. A trough will move east from the Pacific early in the middle of the weekend.
1042 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Key Messages: 1) A cold front will bring a brief round of light showers to the region through tonight, but this will not bring noteworthy impacts. In addition, northwest winds behind the front along with increased cloud cover will lead to a cooler day, with highs mostly in the mid to upper 60s. Therefore, we should be a few degrees warmer in most of the area despite the persistent northwesterly surface winds, but any slow down in the low progression could lead to a cooler day with even a shot at spotty light showers.
Extending south from the low pressure center is a cold front that has moved southeast through our forecast area. Skies quickly clear behind this band, allowing temperatures to climb into the low 70s where clearing occurs at least a few hours before sunset. Over the next few days, the upper trough will shift farther east, allowing heights to slowly build across the Plains. A weak cold front swings through, dropping temperatures slightly for the weekend as high pressure becomes centered over the Midwest and the upper pattern becomes a bit less amplified.
144 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather today, along with warmer temperatures.
A few locations in the Brainerd Lakes Friday may reach the mid-60s, with much cooler temperatures into north-central Wisconsin and the tip of the Arrowhead.
A cold front will push into the far northwest part of the area around daybreak. Shower chances stay in the forecast Thursday night into Friday as the trough axis moves through. and a narrow upper level ridge directly overhead. Things can change quickly this time of year, and we will start to see a different pattern by tomorrow as a trough swoops down our way from the northwest. That wave will sweep a cold front through the area.
322 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Dry and warmer weather is expected today as high pressure exits the East Coast. Rain returns this evening through Friday night with the approach and passage of a cold front.
07Z water vapor imagery showed a closed low digging southeast towards central IL. Meanwhile a broad upper ridge was centered over the southwest with ridging extending into southwest Canada. Surface obs showed a low pressure system over WI with a trailing boundary through the Ozarks and into the Red River Valley.
There is some semblance of a warm front over the western CWFA, with a cold front out over the lake. The main driver of the rain has been the low level jet that has been traversing through the area from SW to NE. The low level jet will move NE of the area, and the cold front will bring some of the leftover rain over the area as it weakens losing the low level jet support. This is the result of the main upper level low currently across SE Iowa that will lift to the NE as it opens up a bit, and takes on somewhat of a negative tilt, enhancing the lift with the feature. The coverage should remain limited with some short wave ridging building in during the afternoon.
653 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 (Today) Clear skies and somewhat milder conditions prevailed across the Tennessee Valley, as high pressure to our east moves off shore. Temperatures so far tonight ranged from the lower 40s NE Alabama to mid 50s at Huntsville with light winds. A cold front trailing southward from this low will bring an increase in clouds, and chances of showers to the area later today. High temperatures later today, before shower activity becomes more of an issue should warm into the lower 70s. A tightening gradient as the cold front nears should result in SW winds increasing into the 10-15 mph range with some gusts to 20 mph.
646 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 High pressure shifts east today with mild temperatures expected on southerly winds. A cold front tracks in Friday through Friday night with showers. It will be breezy and turning cooler behind the front over the weekend. Highs will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s west of the Blue Ridge, to upper 60s to around 70 east. Tonight, 5h trough deepens across the Ohio/TN valleys, with stronger southwest flow, which will likely result in lowering clouds quicker.
623 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 (Today through Friday) An overall dry day is expected as a cold front begins to approach the area. A pre-frontal trough is out ahead of the front and stretches from Michigan to Arkansas. High pressure is centered over the Mid- Atlantic. The pre-frontal trough will make it into the northeast by the afternoon, but will lose moisture as it moves through the area and encounters the western edge of the high pressure. So any rain with the trough will be limited to the north and northwest through the afternoon. The cold front itself will move into the northwest near sunset and then move through overnight.
A very weak cold front is drifting through the area on schedule as of 530 AM, and as previously discussed it will largely go unnoticed other than a shift in wind direction. -Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Friday/ A pair of abnormally warm days will close out the workweek despite the arrival of a weak cold front this morning. In fact, today's highs will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday's as the dry air in place both ahead of and behind the front readily warms with daytime heating. Expect even warmer temperatures for Friday afternoon as upper ridging continues to build across the western half of the country, but light wind speeds should preclude elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow. /Issued 315 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023/ /Friday night Onward/ Dry and warm conditions continue this weekend as high pressure remains in control.
620 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper-level troughing moves into the area today, though the cold front lags behind. As the cold front approaches tonight, we'll see the chance for a few showers across the southeast Alabama counties late tonight.
632 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather today, along with warmer temperatures.
929 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Dry and warmer weather is expected today as high pressure exits the East Coast. Rain returns this evening through Friday night with the approach and passage of a cold front.
Water vapor imagery depicts northwesterly flow aloft over Colorado, as high pressure builds over the desert southwest. Skies are clear, with temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s across the plains as of 3 AM. Models keep us in northwesterly flow aloft throughout the day today, as high pressure drifts towards the Four Corners region by late tonight and we remain along the eastern periphery of the ridge. Daytime highs are looking to be around 10 to 12 degrees above normal this afternoon for all locations, with most of our plains warming into the upper 70s and low 80s, and our mountain valleys warming into the low and mid 70s. Though many areas will see relative humidity values falling into the mid-teens this afternoon, critical fire weather conditions are not expected thanks to weaker winds under the ridge.
A cold front moving in from the north Friday evening will cool temperatures down over the weekend.
635 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 (Today through Friday) Upper ridging centered over the Appalachians and over Nevada this morning with a sharp trough running from the Great Lakes to the Iowa-Illinois border to north Texas. At the surface, high pressure extended along the Atlantic Coast into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure over Wisconsin had a cold front to near Kansas City into north Texas. The upper trough to our northwest will push across the area later this afternoon and evening. It gets increasingly difficult to find a legitimate frontal boundary across the local area with the passage of the upper trough. NAM/ECMWF guidance is generally 3-5F cooler.
530 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Low pressure tracking east across the Upper Great Lakes today into Friday will push its southward trailing cold front slowly east across the state during the day Friday. Several rounds of showers will precede and accompany this front and a few thunderstorms could even develop across the Lower Susq Valley later Friday afternoon and evening in the mild and moist airmass ahead of the frontal boundary.
653 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Periods of rain showers can be expected through this evening as cold front approaches the area from the west.
An upper level ridge continues to influence conditions across northern California and southern Oregon.
612 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 (Today through Friday Night) A spy with my eye a front! But is it a 'real' cold front? Eh. The lower humidity will once again allow evening and overnight temperatures to drop quickly on Friday night with lows in the upper-50s to low-60s.
539 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 (Today through Friday) A potent low pressure system works into the Great Lakes and deepens the mid level trough across the eastern CONUS into the weekend. This strengthens the mid-level ridge of high pressure in control across Texas and brings additional dry air into Friday. Light downsloping winds are expected by late this morning across the lower RGV, so have leaned toward higher guidance. A potential limiting factor would be some of the higher clouds streaming across the region from Hurricane Norma in the EastPac.
541 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 (Thursday through Friday) Light showers are currently moving to our north, as a weak cold front continues to push east. As the upper-level trough continues that eastern path, that will allow for the fringes of upper-level ridging to weasel its way into our area. In turn, look for temperatures to climb over the course of the short-term, as surface winds turn south with the ridge.