Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
410 AM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Slightly cooler temperatures and a return of shower and thunderstorm chances are expected over the southwest today while central and northern areas remain hot and dry. Isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm chances increase over the southwest this morning and may reach as far north as the highway 200 corridor later this evening. 75 to 1 inch) begin to moisten the lower levels, so the gusty wind threat will diminish, but localized heavy downpours will become more common with the stronger storms. The cooler and cloudier conditions will knock at least a few more degrees off of Thursday's highs compared to today.
608 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 The Great Lakes remain beneath upper-level northwesterly flow on the eastern side of a stagnant upper-level ridge centered over the Central Plains. Highs both today and tomorrow should range from the low to mid 80s, except in the mid 70s along the Lake Michigan shoreline due to lake breezes. Thursday evening, a cold front is expected to drift south and into northern Illinois from Wisconsin while in the process of "washing out.
Clouds and pcpn will likely keep the coolest temperatures across our southwest on Thursday so will range afternoon highs from the upper 70s southwest to the low/mid 80s in the northeast.
333 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Cooler through Thursday, then a warming trend into the weekend.
710 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure centered on the New England states reached back into Lower Mi to help with calm wind during the late night. Patchy high clouds are left behind tonight as the eastern warm sector fringe of northern Ontario low pressure reaches the area. The Ontario system pulls a cold front into southern Lower Mi but not until mid Thursday afternoon. * None Subtle changes in the synoptic-scale pattern present minor sensible adjustments for Southeast Michigan today as the sprawling ridge of high pressure over the desert southwest churns upstream of an upper- level trough pivoting into the North Atlantic. Gradual warming within the 6-9 kft AGL layer ensures activity dissipates by the early evening hours while also lifting high temperatures into the low-mid 80s marked by 700 mb temps increasing by 2-3 degrees (C).
Instability values are not the highest, generally topping out at around 500 J/Kg of CAPE and lifted indices around minus 2. For tomorrow, an upper level low will track across northern Wyoming. There will be a bit of shear present though with the upper level low.
904 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure will crest south of the area today and tonight then slide to the east on Thursday.
518 AM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Upper ridge over the western states will flatten out over the next few days as a wave lifts across the Great Basin and into the northern plains. Another hot and dry day expected for today before the breakdown of the ridge brings moisture, for thunderstorms, into southern Montana. Warm ridge of high pressure remains in control. A low pressure disturbance emerges embedded within the flow later this week, which will bring monsoonal thunderstorms into the region from the south.
Hot weather will return over the weekend as high pressure rebuilds over the Southwest. Farther inland the dew points were in the low 60s in the valleys, and in the 50s in the mountains and deserts. The high humidity this morning will steadily fall through the day as dry air advection steadily lowers dew points.
Weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward across the Bahamas and into the Keys will maintain light breezes across the Keys coastal waters through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend.
600 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure will crest south of the area today and tonight then slide to the east on Thursday.
719 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Broad high pressure will keep the area dry through most of Thursday.
1002 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Cooler high pressure builds in over Eastern NC through Thursday. The next cold front and trough approaches by late week. Weak low pressure could move along this front across eastern NC over the weekend. In the mid-levels and further aloft, troughing offshore continues its Eward departure with ridging centered over the Wern Gulf States extending Eward toward SECONUS. Below climo lows again with MinTs in the low to mid 60s, upper 60s Crystal Coast, ~70 OBX. There is expected to be a minimum in precipitation chances again Thu as high pressure builds in from the north. NE flow will result in cooler but still warm highs in the mid to upper 80s.
543 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level ridge continues it's gradual shift eastward with now a little bit of a shift southeast, continuing the trend of another dry day with another slight increase in temperatures.
603 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (Today and tonight) Looks like another very hot day across the area with a strong upper level high over the area and an intense low level thermal ridge over the northwest part of the area.
The next wave of precipitation will begin later this evening into the overnight hours as another area of storms develops over northern MO/southern IA north of a sfc warm front. on the nose of the low level jet.
Stronger cold front organizing well to our northwest across central Canada. Central Canada cold front works southeast, cutting across Lake Superior during the early morning hours of Thursday. PATTERN SYNOPSIS: General longwave pattern continues with ridging out west and a persistent upper low near Hudson Bay.
Temperatures and humidity will also nudge up a notch tomorrow ahead of a fairly weak cold front moving down from the Upper Peninsula. By Thursday night, winds switch around to come out of the north as the cold front passes through, ushering in even more beautiful weather to end the week.
(This evening through Thursday) Hot and dry weather will continue across the area again on Thursday, as the upper high remains over the area. Temperatures on Thursday will be hot but a degree or two cooler than today.
We also think the High Res Ensemble Output has a little better feel for the max QPF axis along the MS river, shifting southward, and eastward, with time, vs the GFS/NAM output. Pops increase over the course of the weekend as well, when a more robust wave's move from the Plains to the Great Lakes drives a cold front toward/into the FA.
(This evening through Thursday night) Not much change happening in the short-term as the ridge of death over the southern plains continues to stay parked over the area. The center of the ridge is roughly over northeastern Texas and we continue to be confined in its eastern edge. With the ridge brining upper-level dry air into the area, these storms have plenty of DCAPE to work with (1000-1300 j/kg across the area). Tomorrow is going to be much of the same as today as that ridge just sits there over northeast Texas. So, although it'll feel "cooler", heat indices are still going to be around 110F, which is still horrible. So, even though it will feel a few degrees cooler, still expect highs to tie or break some records tomorrow as the ridge stays overhead.
(This evening through Thursday night) Latest 18Z obs and satellite analysis shows a notable perturbation moving northeast across eastern New Mexico just a head of a very broad H500 negative tilted trough with the main axis over the Four Corners Region. All of these mesoscale setup occurring on the backside of the main H500 high pressure system currently centered over the DFW metro. The main northern stream trough across the northern Plains and broad H500 high to the south will set up another chance for diurnal convection, favoring the northern Panhandles tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night.
(Rest of today through Thursday) Expansive high pressure at 500mb remains across Texas and the Gulf coast this afternoon while a weak stationary boundary sits across Northern Florida. Afternoon high temperatures are expected in the low to mid 90s each day, with heat indices nearing the 105-108 degree range.
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s to around 70.
139 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (Today and tonight) The tri-state area will remain on the eastern periphery of a deep layer ridge today, keeping the hot and relatively dry conditions in place across the region. Northerly flow through the deep layer, with northeasterly flow in the lowest 3km will favor keeping seabreeze convection and mostly confined to coastal portions of the Big Bend.
High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler due to cloud cover.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Hot and humid condition will continue through the short term period, but low rain/storm chances are in the forecast this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon as a weak inverted trough moves into the region.
Also finding it increasingly difficult to identify a cold front that is supposed to be pushing south and east across the CWA today/this evening. Cooler temps may end up having to be tied to how cloudy it can be on Thursday. The medium range forecast is shaping up to be cooler than normal and fairly wet! Medium range models all agree with varying degrees of small differences.
138 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Afternoon Discussion: Today into tonight: A few high clouds, above average temperatures, and light winds will continue through the overnight hours under high pressure conditions.
Subsidence associated with the upper ridge will likely suppress convection today, although can't rule out the sea breeze and daytime heating to allow for a few storms to develop.
1157 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure will crest south of the area today and tonight then slide to the east on Thursday.
Sfc ridging will persist invof the ern/srn Great Lakes this period inbetween stout sw US upper ridge and deep upper low over ern Canada. Broad/deepening warm advection ahead of this sys timed with relaxation of ern Canada troughing should allow active stationary frontal zone through the mid MS valley to finally buck back north. Surface ridging will continue to promote VFR/dry conditions and relatively light southerly winds through the period.
By tomorrow, the easterly flow will be set as the ridge continues to shift east and south into the Atlantic and over Fl.
The weekend should be slightly cooler but still in the 90s.
120 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Broad high pressure will keep the area dry through most of Thursday.
A few showers and possibly a rumble of thunder are possible across Northeast Georgia, but an inverted trough splits the CWA today and a majority of north and central GA are enjoying dewpoints in the upper 60s; a break from the muggy conditions that we had over the past few days. A familiar pattern of plenty of instability and NW flow is hinting at the formation of an MCS that the High-Res models are starting to agree on. Temperatures today will be on the cooler side of average with highs in the mid 80s and a few low 90s along the southern part of the CWA border. Overnight lows will be pleasant in the low 70s and upper 60s across the higher terrain.
The ridge morphs ever so slightly on Thursday keeping non-zero chances in for the southern areas of the region, but again, still forecasting a mostly dry Thursday with temperatures in mid 80s. Meso models are showing a weak cold front dropping down southward from Wisconsin on Thursday evening. It is for the higher ozone levels expected as well as the potential for linger smoke from the Canadian wildfires to drift over northwest Indiana with Thursday's lake breeze.
202 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure overhead will lead to quiet conditions today.
Latest GEFS and European model ensembles have a trough over California.
Many locations see highs in the 70s today, with warmer temperatures in the 80s over the Bighorn Basin. Models depict the aforementioned upper-level low developing further, becoming a closed low, and moving northeast, clipping northwestern Wyoming. This will put northwestern Wyoming in the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms. Winds across the Central Wind Corridor could also be gusty through the afternoon, with potential for 20 to 30 mph winds as a result of the low's passage. Similar temperatures over most of the area Thursday, with cooler temperatures expected over the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County areas, as compared to today. The high over the southern United States also persists, but models are projecting a slightly westward movement come this weekend, which may limit direct moisture flow and therefore lessen those incoming PWAT values.
This has allowed temperatures to quickly soar into the lower to mid 90s.
310 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Tonight and tomorrow: An upper ridge continues to be our predominant influence and heat remains the primary concern. Climatological analysis suggests the likely range of temperatures is 95-99, however, given a history of 100 degree temps and conditions, opted to lean on the high end. Given drier soils, temperatures could reach the low 100s in this area, which combined with upper 70s dewpoints, should result in heat indices 115-120 degrees in this region. Elsewhere has experienced more recent rainfall and may be slightly cooler. Have expanded excessive heat warning to cover nearly entire CWA, with the exception of the far east where recent rainfall may keep temps slightly cooler, and slight storm chances tomorrow afternoon may limit extreme heat potential.
1221 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level ridge continues it's gradual shift eastward with now a little bit of a shift southeast, continuing the trend of another dry day with another slight increase in temperatures.
South Texas will remain under the grip of the mid level ridge to the north of the area, spread across Texas.
Upper level ridge will continue to sit to the northeast of the region and help keep temperatures at least a few degrees above average. Overnight lows end up above average as well with mid 70s in most spots and the higher elevations dropping into the 60s.
1252 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough will move across the Great Basin into the Intermountain West today temporarily attempting to suppress the upper ridge centered over east Texas. The center of the upper ridge will not undergo much movement today.
1246 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 The Great Lakes remain beneath upper-level northwesterly flow on the eastern side of a stagnant upper-level ridge centered over the Central Plains. Highs both today and tomorrow should range from the low to mid 80s, except in the mid 70s along the Lake Michigan shoreline due to lake breezes. Thursday evening, a cold front is expected to drift south and into northern Illinois from Wisconsin while in the process of "washing out.
Cloud cover across southwest portions of the area has helped keep temperatures locally cooler today in spots and dew points a bit higher where mixing wasn't as aggressive. Otherwise, the main forecast challenge is the arrive of a weak cold front Thursday evening, which brings the best potential for showers and thunderstorms to areas north of I-94 mainly between 5pm and 10pm. Temperatures over the next 24-48 hours will be running slightly above normal, with lows in the low to mid 60s. Given the slower arrival of the front on Thursday, did bump temperatures up a bit with a few spots expected to climb into the lower 90s.
1151 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (Rest of Today) High pressure aloft continues to shift east over the ArkLaTex region, keeping northwesterly flow aloft. Afternoon highs will reach the lower 90s across much of the area, and upper 80s in the higher terrain.
Whether precipitation develops or not, it will be a humid day as dewpoints will be in the low to mid 70s.
226 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will move offshore tonight. A low pressure system tracking from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley will spread showers and thunderstorms across the area tonight through Thursday.
(This evening through Thursday) Mid-level ridging will continue to slowly move off towards the east this evening through tomorrow. With a south to north oriented pool of moisture hanging around the I-35 corridor and east, little relief from the heat is expected overnight with lows in the low 80s expected.
-Ridge starts to amplify Thursday over the southern United States bringing a NW flow to the forecast region.
Patchy high clouds are left behind tonight as the eastern warm sector fringe of northern Ontario low pressure reaches the area. The Ontario system pulls a cold front into southern Lower MI but not until late Thursday afternoon. * None Subtle changes in the synoptic-scale pattern present minor sensible adjustments for Southeast Michigan today as the sprawling ridge of high pressure over the desert southwest churns upstream of an upper- level trough pivoting into the North Atlantic. Gradual warming within the 6-9 kft AGL layer ensures activity dissipates by the early evening hours while also lifting high temperatures into the low-mid 80s marked by 700 mb temps increasing by 2-3 degrees (C).
Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast through the week.
1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (Today through Thursday) A weak inverted trough rounds the southern edge of the persistent mid level ridge through tonight with a boost of moisture into Thursday afternoon. Southeasterly winds will increase Thursday afternoon as the pressure gradient strengthens a bit along the lower Texas coast.
24-hr probability matched means favors the heaviest precipitation in the higher terrain east of I-15 Thursday through Thursday night.
1120 AM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023 The Tri-State area will be under zonal westerly flow to southwesterly as the upper ridge flattens out of over the Central Plains.
Hot and dry conditions will continue for the rest of today into Thursday as the strong mid to upper level ridging persists across Southeast Texas. Regardless, we are expected for many to experience highs peaking in the low 100s for much of the inland portions and in the mid to upper 90s along the coasts.
1232 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (Today and tonight) Looks like another very hot day across the area with a strong upper level high over the area and an intense low level thermal ridge over the northwest part of the area.
211 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will move offshore tonight. A low pressure system tracking from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley will spread showers and thunderstorms across the area tonight through Thursday.
(Through Thursday) Upper level ridging will generally hold over the region; however, flow will gradually change from the north to the southwest. Highs for Thursday will be in the low to mid 90s while heat index values peak in the upper 90s to low 100s.
508 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Afternoon Discussion: Today into tonight: A few high clouds, above average temperatures, and light winds will continue through the overnight hours under high pressure conditions.
Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast through the week. Latest surface analysis shows high pressure centered to our northeast near the North Carolina-Virgina border. Winds shift southeast tonight as high pressure slides to our east.
625 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) Hot and humid condition will continue through the short term period, but low rain/storm chances are in the forecast this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon as a weak inverted trough moves into the region.
The storms were near a weak upper low embedded in the general southwest flow aloft. At 8 PM MDT new storms were developing in northeastern Elmore County and moving slowly south-westward around the weak upper low nearby.
/EC/ Tonight and tomorrow: An upper ridge continues to be our predominant influence and heat remains the primary concern. Climatological analysis suggests the likely range of temperatures is 95-99, however, given a history of 100 degree temps and conditions, opted to lean on the high end. Given drier soils, temperatures could reach the low 100s in this area, which combined with upper 70s dewpoints, should result in heat indices 115-120 degrees in this region. Elsewhere has experienced more recent rainfall and may be slightly cooler. Have expanded excessive heat warning to cover nearly entire CWA, with the exception of the far east where recent rainfall may keep temps slightly cooler, and slight storm chances tomorrow afternoon may limit extreme heat potential.
540 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Hot and dry weather will continue across the area again on Thursday, as the upper high remains over the area. Temperatures on Thursday will be hot but a degree or two cooler than today.
729 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will move offshore tonight. A low pressure system tracking from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley will spread showers and a few thunderstorms across the area tonight through Thursday.
1009 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Cooler high pressure continues over Eastern NC through tomorrow. The next cold front and trough approaches by late week. Weak low pressure could move along this front across eastern NC over the weekend. Still only some think cirrus passing overhead tonight as high pressure remains in control. Despite this, increased low level thicknesses will support high temps a few degrees warmer, with mid to upper 80s expected in most areas, except for across the Outer and Inner Banks where onshore flow will keep temps in the low 80s. A weak/decaying front will approach eastern NC through the period and will weaken near or over the area over the weekend as a mid and upper level trough continues over the eastern US while deepening somewhat.
600 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop this afternoon with thunderstorms pressing inland towards the vicinity of the Highway 301 corridor as easterly onshore winds allow the Atlantic diurnal sea breeze to presses inland and merges with the westerly gulf coast sea breeze. High temperatures today will rise into the lower to mid 90s with heat index values rising up into the 100s, however temps are expected to remain below advisory levels.
We have received multiple calls from the public regarding waterspouts, primarily occurring over the Gulf side waters of the Lower Key. According to MRMS 3-hour data at, the areas near Horseshoe Key and parts of the Middle Keys experience the highest rainfall amounts, ranging from 0. The 00Z sounding showed favorable moisture in the lower to mid-levels of theÂ atmosphere, accompanied by gentle winds that reached from the surface up to 330 mb.
332 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023 An extremely unsettled monsoonal weather pattern continues w/ very moist and energetic southwesterly flow aloft on the western fringe of broad/flat upper-level ridging overspreading a large portion of the southern US. Severe threat should be considerably higher, as slightly cooler temperatures aloft (and resultant steeper lapse rates) and dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s contribute to MLCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg.
High pressure nudges closer to our region late week with above average temperatures expected by the weekend away from the coast.
715 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 (Through Thursday) Upper level ridging will generally hold over the region; however, flow will gradually change from the north to the southwest. Highs for Thursday will be in the low to mid 90s while heat index values peak in the upper 90s to low 100s.
Given that the strength and placement of the upper-level ridge will be effectively unchanged on Thursday, the Excessive Heat Warning has been extended another 24 hours with maximum heat indices pushing north of 110 degrees once again tomorrow afternoon.
Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast through the week before rising this weekend. Latest surface analysis shows high pressure centered to our northeast near the North Carolina-Virgina border. Winds shift southeast then south tonight as high pressure slides to our east.
Hot weather will return over the weekend as high pressure rebuilds over the Southwest.