Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
710 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 A cold front will continue to work through the area this evening, sparking the development of occasional thunderstorms east of I-55. There is a strong cold front making its way through Central Illinois this afternoon, resulting in a broken line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms just to the south of the region. Along with the precipitation, this the front will bring notably cooler temperatures to the region on breezy northwest winds. In fact, clearing skies across our north will allow morning lows to approach the freezing mark, but winds look to be strong enough to preclude frost development in those areas.
A passing cold front will bring much cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a slight chance of precipitation to northern Arizona. A strong cold front is still on track to bring the coldest temperatures of the season so far to northern Arizona.
Key Message: Freezing temperatures are expected tonight, especially in the northwest 1/2 of the area. The sharp cold front moved through during the morning hours in Iowa, and early afternoon in Illinois, pretty much as expected. This post frontal activity is more associated with the 850mb cold frontal boundary, which is allowing the anafrontal forcing. Cold advection has held northwest Iowa below freezing today, pretty impressive! This cold advection alone should allow temperatures to fall into the lower 30s tonight, and any clearing would allow temperatures to drop a bit farther, resulting in a freeze in the northwestern CWA.
308 PM MDT Fri Oct 27 2023 A broad shallow trough enveloped the western half of the nation today. Closer to home, yesterday's cold front had stalled in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor where it lingered this afternoon.
627 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) An upper ridge remains centered over Florida while a trough is over most of the Western CONUS. At the surface, a high pressure system is dropping out of Canada into the plains while another ridge is over the southeast states and nearshore Atlantic. Between the two air masses a cold front stretches from New Mexico and North Texas to Lake Superior. Deeper moisture associated with the remnants of Otis is lifting north ahead of the cold front and across South and East Texas. The isolated to scattered showers earlier today across the Lower Rio Grande Valley and Kenedy Ranch area was associated with this moisture. Through tonight and Saturday the aforementioned upper features will shift slightly east while the strong cold front drops south.
Upper trough over our area is beginning to shift east which will put our CWA under cold, dry northerly flow through Saturday night.
554 PM MDT Fri Oct 27 2023 A broad shallow trough enveloped the western half of the nation today. Closer to home, yesterday's cold front had stalled in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor where it lingered this afternoon.
(This evening through Saturday) Key Messages: - Warmer than average high temperatures tomorrow in the 80s. This high will be centered over central Georgia tomorrow, keeping subsidence in place and allowing for little more than afternoon cu field development.
In addition, there is probably a bit less low level support and small variations in ridge structure. A ridge centered over the Carolinas will maintain fresh east northeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
530 PM MDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Massive arctic high pressure is covering the Northern Plains with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary in place to the south of the FA. Secondary cold front will push into the region Sat with breezy NW winds developing, esp on the SD plains.
719 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Strong high pressure will persist over the forecast area into this weekend, generating above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
A potent low pressure system is deepening as it moves northeast over southern Ontario this afternoon. A sharp cold front extends southwest through Milwaukee WI and Springfield MO. The southwesterly LLJ over the Lower Ohio Valley has steadily weakened throughout the day, and the ongoing light rain is expected to gradually diminish over the next few hours. Late tonight into early Saturday morning, rain chances again increase from northwest to southeast as the sfc cold front approaches. This potent storm system continues to accelerate northeastward across Quebec tonight into Saturday, and the sfc cold front will begin to stall over central KY on Saturday as it becomes parallel to the upper level flow. Temperatures around 65-70 should be common closer to the Bluegrass Parkway, with highs in the low to mid 70s across south-central KY.
421 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 A cold front will continue to work through the area this evening, sparking the development of occasional thunderstorms east of I-55. There is a strong cold front making its way through Central Illinois this afternoon, resulting in a broken line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms just to the south of the region. Along with the precipitation, this the front will bring notably cooler temperatures to the region on breezy northwest winds. In fact, clearing skies across our north will allow morning lows to approach the freezing mark, but winds look to be strong enough to preclude frost development in those areas.
Either way, brute force cold advection will likely drop temps just below freezing for south central WI with slightly milder temps to the east. Clouds will increase through the day via mid level warm advection and frontogenesis ahead of a longwave trough that sets up from the nrn high plains to the Desert SW. As the upper trough slowly approaches from the west, a weak wave of low pressure will track along the Ohio River late Sat nt-Sun. This will bring chances (30-50%) for lgt rain and snow during this time, with the highest chances over ern WI where lake effect rain may develop.
(Today through Sunday Night ) The pattern continues with an upper trough over the northern U. S, southwest flow aloft over much of central and eastern sections, and an upper high over the Gulf of Mexico. By Sunday night, the upper trough will move into the Plains, and southwest flow will continue over the south and east sections. The cold front continues a slow movement through the state, and is currently from Mena to Batesville. Highs today will be in the mid 50s north to lower 80s south and cooler Sunday with highs in the mid 40s to mid 70s. Lows tonight will be in the lower 40s to mid 60s and cooler Sunday night in the lower 30s to mid 40s.
118 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 (Rest of today through Saturday) A deep layer ridge centered over the Southeastern portion of the country will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida for the rest of this afternoon through Saturday. Winds could continue to gust between 25 and 30 mph with the highest gusts remaining over the east coast this afternoon as well as Saturday afternoon. With strong high pressure in place, plenty of mid to upper level dry air remains over the region. High temperatures on Saturday will generally range from the mid 80s across the east coast metro areas to the lower 90s over interior portions of Southwest Florida.
Taking a look at the latest surface map, high pressure was stretched out from MT to northwestern and central SD. An inverted trough was set up from around the 4-corners area up through southeastern WY/far southwestern SD and western NE. The large scale 500mb trough, currently set up from central Canada through MT and ID, will sink across the Dakotas Sunday.
1116 PM MDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Massive arctic high pressure is covering the Northern Plains with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary in place to the south of the FA. Secondary cold front will push into the region Sat with breezy NW winds developing, esp on the SD plains.
341 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 Short Term/Marine - The cold front arrives Gusty northwesterly winds have arrived and will usher in cooler temperatures into the region today. The gusty winds however will make it feel quite chilly with wind chills in the low 40s. Lows tonight into Sunday will be near freezing along the US 10 corridor and in the upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere. A deepening trough will extend across the upper midwest southward across the intermountain west. That trough will move eastward tonight into tomorrow.
937 PM MDT Fri Oct 27 2023 A broad cold trough extending across the northern Rockies today is keeping very cold air in place over the forecast area, especially in basins east of the divide with fresh snow cover. Widespread single digits are likely Saturday morning, with continued highs Saturday only reaching the low to mid 20s east of the divide. Steep upper-level high pressure builds along the west coast, with cold NNW flow across the area on Sunday.
A cold front is currently moving across the CWA with scattered showers and some isolated thunder. Some light drizzle also currently exists over the western and northwestern CWA and is associated with the 850mb trough and greater low level moisture. Precip will exit the area Sunday night prior to sub-freezing surface temperatures coming in, so not expecting any mixed precip on the back side.
A weak trough has triggered some light accumulations, mostly in the northeast corner of the forecast area, but should be exiting during the morning hours, limiting further precipitation to areas on the very fringe of the forecast area in that same corner. After this, an upper level ridge develops to the west, producing a deep northerly flow from interior Canada all the way into eastern Idaho. As is normal for high pressure, there is no significant wind, save for the north wind direction that determines the temperatures. Still expecting lows to struggle into the 30s at the lowest elevations for today, then up 2 to 5 deg F for Sun. Overnight lows are crashing to below zero for some alpine basins, including Stanley basin, and only slightly warmer for Sun night in some places.
Showers will persist through Sunday as a stalled cold front remains draped over I-40.
Discussion: High pressure is expected to continue to move into the area today. Temperatures have trended cooler with recent runs of guidance for today. Most guidance has been slow to pick up on the low cloud deck tonight.
322 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A cold front moving through today will cause temperatures to slowly fall through the afternoon with cooler weather expected this week.
1052 PM MDT Fri Oct 27 2023 A broad shallow trough enveloped the western half of the nation today. Closer to home, yesterday's cold front had stalled in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor where it lingered this afternoon.
The 12z GFS showed the warm nose entirely below freezing across central Kansas for 12z Sunday. This would support rain for surface temperatures 31 degrees or higher and freezing rain for surface temperatures 30 degrees or colder. Will go with a wintry mix for now for those areas below freezing with rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain. If the surface temperature forecast ends up too warm by a couple of degrees, the freezing rain potential would increase for the region south of Highway 50 and west of the Flint Hills and a more significant winter weather event will be possible.
1207 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) An upper ridge remains centered over Florida while a trough is over most of the Western CONUS. At the surface, a high pressure system is dropping out of Canada into the plains while another ridge is over the southeast states and nearshore Atlantic. Between the two air masses a cold front stretches from New Mexico and North Texas to Lake Superior. Deeper moisture associated with the remnants of Otis is lifting north ahead of the cold front and across South and East Texas. The isolated to scattered showers earlier today across the Lower Rio Grande Valley and Kenedy Ranch area was associated with this moisture. Through tonight and Saturday the aforementioned upper features will shift slightly east while the strong cold front drops south.
(Today) A mostly clear and mild morning is underway with morning lows in the high 50s and low 60s. The warmer temps and dew points within a few degrees of the low temperatures, sets us up for muggy morning and the opportunity for patchy morning fog. Temperatures will quickly increase with continual high pressure influence just off to our east keeping us warm and dry through the whole day. Very light south-southeast winds along with party cloudy skies will only aid in supplying another day of muggy conditions, similar to yesterday with highs in the low 80s.
(Today through Sunday) Alabama will remain under the influence of a strong upper ridge. The ridge will hold though the weekend as an equally strong upper trough tracks slowly towards the Southeast United States. The ridge will result in minimal cloud cover, no rain, and afternoon temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal.
442 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 Strong high pressure will persist over the forecast area into this weekend, generating above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
(Today through Sunday) Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain on the western periphery of 500 mb high pressure that will remain centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. This will produce dry weather for the inland portion of the BRO CWFA, although some isolated to even scattered convection will be possible over the lower Texas coastal waters where fluctuating tropical moisture will be best.
A cold front will remain stalled along the I-40 corridor today.
321 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A cold front will slowly move southeast to a position south of the Ohio River by tonight. A wave of low pressure will then ripple northeast along this frontal boundary on Sunday.
A very broad trough is situated across the western CONUS oriented southwest to northeast. Mid-level ridging that has remained across portions of the southeast will slowly weaken/break down through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure becomes more centralized over Georgia today thus another fair weather day can be expected.
230 AM MDT Sat Oct 28 2023 Montana will be under northerly flow through Sunday night, with an upper ridge of high pressure just off the Pacific Northwest coast and an upper trough over the Hudson Bay into the northern Great Lakes. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s today (a little warmer than yesterday) and upper 20s to mid 30s on Sunday, as low level downslope gradients increase. As for precipitation, cyclonic flow with the northern trough was producing areas of very light snow and flurries through the overnight hours. The trough axis will swing east of the area by noon and this should end precipitation chances.
As a result, today will be a touch warmer in spots, with dew points a couple of degrees higher as well. Today and tonight will be the peak of widespread warmer temperatures across the area, as temperatures will be a bit cooler in parts of SW VA and the northern Plateau Sunday.
1240 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 (This evening through Sunday) 19z subjective surface analysis indicates a slow moving cold front, now entering northwest portions of the state.
Upper level pattern has a large scale trough from an Arctic low pressure center through central Canada and into the U. Broad southwest to west flow aloft extended across much of the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS ahead of the trough axis. Several rounds of rain will affect the area through Sunday night as the upper level trough axis approaches from the west.
310 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 Today and Tonight: After a period of dense fog in the southeast this morning, continued warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will continue through the period with the exception of our far northwest zones where low chances for rain will be carried. Early morning surface analysis had a >1020mb high centered over the southeast states ridging back across the Gulf coast states and a stalled frontal boundary from the Ohio valley southwest across the ArkLaTex. This combined ridging surface and aloft will remain dominant over our CWA through the period and keep the stalled frontal boundary just northwest of our CWA.
346 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 The cold front has cleared the area to the east with temperatures now quickly tumbling toward an eventual low in the 40s this morning. Drying northerly flow and weak subsidence via surface ridging building in will then bring some breaks in the clouds by the afternoon but temps struggle to break out of the upper 40s/lower 50s for most locations. This occurs as moisture transport ramps up within the low-level southwesterly flow with some contribution from a western Gulf air mass. Steady height falls then commence Sunday night as a Canadian trough begins to move in.
High pressure centered over GA remains the dominant playmaker in the weekend weather, keeping a breezy easterly wind of 10-15 mph in place through the day, with gusts up to 20-25 mph especially near the coast. Highs will be near to above normal in the low to mid 80s, and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
627 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 (Today through Sunday) Alabama will remain under the influence of a strong upper ridge. The ridge will hold though the weekend as an equally strong upper trough tracks slowly towards the Southeast United States. The ridge will result in minimal cloud cover, no rain, and afternoon temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal.
This will increase the chances for freezing fog or stratus clouds to develop Sunday morning under a building high pressure ridge.
932 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A cold front moving through today will cause temperatures to slowly fall through the afternoon.
751 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 Aviation - The cold front arrives Gusty northwesterly winds have arrived and will usher in cooler temperatures into the region today. The gusty winds however will make it feel quite chilly with wind chills in the low 40s. Lows tonight into Sunday will be near freezing along the US 10 corridor and in the upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere. A deepening trough will extend across the upper midwest southward across the intermountain west. That trough will move eastward tonight into tomorrow.
805 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A low stratus deck kept much of the temperatures near or above freezing early this morning. Discussion: High pressure is expected to continue to move into the area today. Temperatures have trended cooler with recent runs of guidance for today. Most guidance has been slow to pick up on the low cloud deck tonight.
653 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A cold front moving through today will cause temperatures to slowly fall through the afternoon with cooler weather expected this week.
706 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A cold front will remain stalled along the I-40 corridor today.
- Below freezing temperatures expected this morning and Sunday morning for areas northwest of an Atchison to Topeka to Emporia line.
The main trough drops southward this evening and overnight. It will push a cold front through the area and introduce more large-scale lift. Precipitation will intensify along this cold front as it moves southward. The midlevel trough crosses the Divide around sunrise leaving mainly orographic showers in the northwest flow.
500 mb trough axis from southwest to northeast from central Montana to northern Manitoba. This trough axis will move through on Sunday. Better chance is over Lake of the Woods near warmer lake waters and went along with DLH office to have flurry mention this weekend.
532 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 afternoon highs in the lower 50s.
Upper level analysis places westerly flow over our area, with trough to the west. For today, a mainly quiet day is on tap but very cold conditions for this time of year will prevail as cold high pressure remains, combined with the fresh snowpack. Some areas of clouds will linger through the day as trough to the west passes through.
Conditions remain cold and dry as the upper-level trough continues to move southeasterly, with only a minimal chance for snow showers to develop over the mountains of Central Montana later this evening.
Expect this lake effect to persist as long as this much colder air mass remains in place over the warmer waters of the lake. This will mostly be due to the exiting of the upper-level cold low pressure trough from the Canadian prairie, and the arrival of a broad ridge of warmer upper-level high pressure from our west. Regarding chances for precipitation: Today through Sunday, with the colder trough from the north still in place, some models are trying to hint at some isolated flurries or light snow showers as some areas don't quite completely clear out from under the low- level clouds this weekend.
413 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 Sharply colder today in the wake of frontal passage with afternoon highs in the lower 50s.
Meanwhile, the persistent and deep layer ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico will be under assault from lower heights over the CONUS and a mish-mash of hybrid TUTTs spreading northwest through the Greater Antilles and Cuba.
Clouds will remain present today but highs will still climb into the low 80s with a few spots coming within a couple of degrees of daily records.
(Today and tonight) A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for parts of northwest and west central Oklahoma with the forecast of freezing rain and sleet. Meanwhile, a mid-level trough moves from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains today. With a lack of significant warming today and cold air advection from the north, temperatures in northwest Oklahoma are expected to fall below freezing overnight. The trend in the models has also been for precipitation to linger longer in northwest Oklahoma with the isentropic lift continuing, so there looks to be a higher liklihood of overlap of the precipitation and sub-freezing low- level temperatures, meaning a higher chance of freezing rain and/or sleet in the northwest. The heaviest precipitation is expected to be farther south and ground temperatures are relatively warm, so the primary problems will be on bridges, icing on cold surfaces.
610 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 (Today) A mostly clear and mild morning is underway with morning lows in the high 50s and low 60s. The warmer temps and dew points within a few degrees of the low temperatures, sets us up for muggy morning and the opportunity for patchy morning fog. Temperatures will quickly increase with continual high pressure influence just off to our east keeping us warm and dry through the whole day. Very light south-southeast winds along with party cloudy skies will only aid in supplying another day of muggy conditions, similar to yesterday with highs in the low 80s.
640 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A cold front will slowly move southeast to a position south of the Ohio River by tonight. A wave of low pressure will then ripple northeast along this frontal boundary on Sunday.
627 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 (Today through Sunday) Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain on the western periphery of 500 mb high pressure that will remain centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. This will produce dry weather for the inland portion of the BRO CWFA, although some isolated to even scattered convection will be possible over the lower Texas coastal waters where fluctuating tropical moisture will be best.
The fog should burn off rather quickly around 9am, and a return to warmer and mild conditions will be on tap during the day today due to the upper level ridge over the northern Gulf.
The shower activity will continue to race to the southwest and impact the Lower Keys and local waters over the next several hours. Additionally, moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere will promote partly cloudy conditions. The area will continue to experience windy conditions due to a robust high pressure system over the eastern United States. A stout high pressure over the eastern United states will promote fresh to strong northeast to east breezes through Sunday.
920 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A cold front will slowly move southeast to a position south of the Ohio River by tonight. A wave of low pressure will then ripple northeast along this frontal boundary on Sunday.