Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
509 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Gusty northwest winds diminishing over the plains by this evening - Quiet weather through most of the week The large upper low continues shifting more eastward through Missouri this afternoon and finally seeing improving conditions across eastern Colorado. For Thursday, high pressure ridge aloft builds in from the west across the region with dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures.
245 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2023 The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for this afternoon as snow showers continue wrap into the area from the low over the Central CONUS. While the low is now located over Missouri, some of the outer bands of it continue to move over the area, advecting in more moisture. Snow showers are forecasted to continue into the night as the low is not moving very quickly to the east and moisture would continue to advecting into most of the area. Areas along and east of Highway 83 may not even see the clouds break with the forecasted progression of the moisture and the low.
(Now through Thursday) A powerful subtropical jet streak in the upper levels of the atmosphere continues to pull mid and high level moisture from the tropical east Pacific Ocean across our forecast area ahead of a deep upper low over Missouri. A cold front positioned along the Mississippi river this afternoon will move east across the area tonight. High temperatures on Thursday should only reach the lower 50s over interior sections to the middle and upper 50s along the coast.
600 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 (Tonight-Thursday) Large upper cyclone over the heart of the nation will continue to affect the weather over our area for another day to 2 days. Another wave/slug of cold air aloft currently on the north side of the broad cyclone will rotate around and come south across the region on Thursday.
452 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Light amounts of snow (a few tenths) will be possible (40-50%) tonight across southwest Kansas mainly between the highway 83 and highway 183 corridors.
1238 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2023 Dry air will continue to move in behind a cold front tonight.
803 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2023 Our region is underneath a ridge axis over central MT, which will yield a dry and mostly clear night. though we will see high clouds spread into our west as the ridge axis shifts slowly to the east and allows for high level Pacific moisture associated with a low off the WA/BC coast. JKL Dry conditions under mostly clear skies will prevail tonight through Thursday as a ridge of high pressure prevails over the Rockies.
1046 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 A closed off upper level low is sitting over MO. This is pushing a cold front through Middle TN this evening and we are seeing some light showers along this front. Much cooler tomorrow with highs only in the low to mid 40s.
1135 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Overnight - Snow ending, but a few slick spots are possible, mainly on bridges/overpasses to the northwest of the Twin Cities Metro overnight.
The upper low will drift further to the east today, as drier air around H7 spreads into the area out of the WSW. Slightly cooler air is also filtering into the area out of the WNW following the passage of the weak front.
903 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Evening GOES satellite depicts the center of a large upper low over eastern Missouri. As this upper low churns nearly stationarily overnight, expect swaths of cloud cover to continue infiltrating the Mid-South as they wrap around the back side of the system. Any precip associated with this low should remain north of the AR/MO and TN/KY state lines tonight.
911 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2023 1) Warmer and drier conditions expected through New years.
1050 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Gusty northwest winds diminishing over the plains by this evening - Quiet weather through most of the week Winds have calmed down this evening as the large low pressure system that has impacted the area for the past few days departs. The large upper low continues shifting more eastward through Missouri this afternoon and finally seeing improving conditions across eastern Colorado. For Thursday, high pressure ridge aloft builds in from the west across the region with dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures.
Large upper level low in the Central U. A re-inforcing cold front moves into the area this afternoon then moves out of Florida overnight.
A band of light rain persists at this time from Shelbyville and Taylorville to Springfield, with another band of precip associated with somewhat cooler air located just to the south. An upper low is nearly stationary this evening, centered just to the southwest of St Louis. Along and west of the Mississippi Valley, north-northeast winds are pulling modestly cooler air southward. This air is being pulled around the low and eastward across south-central Missouri and Illinois. AAT An upper level low remains centered over central MO slowly drifting eastward.
1148 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Evening GOES satellite depicts the center of a large upper low over eastern Missouri. As this upper low churns nearly stationarily overnight, expect swaths of cloud cover to continue infiltrating the Mid-South as they wrap around the back side of the system. Any precip associated with this low should remain north of the AR/MO and TN/KY state lines tonight.
Weak low pressure in the southern Gulf of Mexico will move through South Florida today with a cold front moving through overnight. Large upper level low in the Central U. A re-inforcing cold front moves into the area this afternoon then moves out of Florida overnight.
1042 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Light snow, perhaps occasionally mixed with drizzle or freezing drizzle, is expected into this evening, mainly northwest of a Yankton to Sioux Falls to Marshall line. Impacts from the snow and freezing drizzle are expected to be minor although some light accumulations are possible along with periods of reduced visibility.
1055 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 (The rest of tonight) A weak wave will wrap around the back side of a closed upper low that is currently centered over SE MO this evening.
Ridge aloft will bring quiet weather today with temperatures warming into the 40s this afternoon.
As this trough dives southward, total 500 mb height falls between now and sunset across western Oklahoma of about 60 mb are expected, indicative of cyclonic vorticity advection aloft. This precipitation will likely begin as light snow given wet-bulb temperatures currently near freezing on the Oklahoma Mesonet and a 31/29 observation upstream in Dodge City. Some warming is expected during the day across our area (with highs in the low 40s in eastern and southern parts of our area), but within the western/northwestern OK zone where precipitation is likeliest wet bulbing and low cloud cover will stunt this temperature increase. After the trough passes by tonight, we'll experience a dry night with cold advection ongoing once more.
(Today and tonight) A broad cyclone centered over Missouri will continue to be the main feature over the CONUS today and tonight as it moves slowly to the east. The forecast area will remain on the southwestern flank of the cyclone with an upper level short wave trough rotating to the south/southeast down the central/southern Plains with some low and mid cloud cover skirting the eastern third of the forecast area as well as reinforcing northerly surface winds and slight cooling from yesterday's highs and this morning's lows due to modest cold air advection.
1126 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 - Light precipitation, in the form of a mix of snow and drizzle/freezing drizzle, with temperatures right around or just below the freezing mark to end later this evening.
Cold temperatures in the valleys of Southwest and Central Montana will attempt to mix out tomorrow, providing an opportunity for these areas to see temperatures closer to normal to close the week, while the plains continue to see warmer than normal temperatures into at least the weekend. Only a small amendment was made to the overnight lows in the Gallatin Valley, opting to reduce the low temperatures to better situate with the current observations. Upper level ridging will largely dominate through this period. The only deviation from upper level ridging will be a brief wave passing through the flow aloft which will briefly result in a more zonal flow aloft tonight into tomorrow. This low probability seems reasonable, given cloud cover forecast to move in tonight.
1054 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 (This evening through Thursday) The expansive, occluded mid-latitude cyclone continues to cylonically spin across the Midwest as it slowly drifts to the east. Any measurable precipitation will be quite light as the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) mean liquid equivalent precipitation is 0. The lowest temperatures are expected across northwest into west central Oklahoma, where the cloud cover will be most abundant.
Clouds should slowly clear from the north as the low moves away finally allowing the sun to make an appearance.
Winds should be primarily from the north around 10 MPH this afternoon as an area of high pressure will build southward into Texas throughout the day. Overnight, clear skies and diminishing winds should allow temperatures to fall to below freezing by the end of the night.
Surface analysis showed a dry reinforcing cold front nearly along and just southeast of the Natchez Trace. The cold front will continue moving through the CWA the remainder of the night. Even with the cold front pushing southeast of the CWA well before sunrise, have raised morning lows a degree or two across the southeast half of the CWA. Areas on the backside of the upper low barely got out of the 30s today, looking temperatures across the area tomorrow to be about 10 degrees cooler as the low moves slightly south and east. Areas with a blanket of clouds will be closer to 15 degrees cooler.
312 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2023 Weak high pressure will build briefly over the Southeast states today.
1048 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) Key Message: - chance (25-30%) for temperatures falling below 32 degrees tonight and Thursday night High pressure builds into S Texas tonight with cold air spilling into the Hill and Brush Countries. High pressure remains over the region for Thursday producing sunny skies and light winds.
145 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 - High pressure dominates the weather the next several days, with a warming trend kicking in tomorrow. Clear skies have dominated across much of eastern Utah and wester Colorado so far tonight as high pressure and cold, dry northwest flow remain in place. The northern valleys are currently forecast to see lows run a good 10 degrees warmer compared to previous days. All this does depend on the high clouds sticking around into the overnight hours tonight, and not dissipating quickly around sunset.
Local LLWS in southeast Oregon and the lower Treasure Valley through 28/06z.
1050 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) A large cut off low remains stationed over the lower Missouri Valley this afternoon, leaving the Panhandles underneath a northwest flow regime. As this low churns and meanders eastward, perturbations will work their way across the eastern periphery of the forecast area tonight and tomorrow. Breezy north winds (15-25 mph) and occasional cloud cover will keep high temperatures cooler by a few degrees in the northeast today and tomorrow, with most of the CWA in the 40s to low 50s.
(Today) In the past 24 hours, our pesky upper low slowly crossed the state of Missouri, making its way from near Kansas City at this time yesterday to near St.
Well the end of December is near with 4 days left (if you include today) and we have been under upper level ridging the last few days. Temperatures for the next five days continue to be well above normal with highs in the 40s and today could reach into the low 50s.
106 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2023 High pressure continues to extend across the lower Mid-Atlantic from the New England region, maintaining a very moist easterly windflow off the Atlantic and across the central Appalachians. A cold front west of the Appalachians will pass across the region tonight, resulting in a westerly wind shift.
Weak low pressure in the southern Gulf of Mexico will move through South Florida today with a cold front moving through overnight. Early evening KTBW radar imagery is showing light showers streaming across the Gulf and into the Nature Coast ahead of the approaching cold front. That said, rain totals are forecast to remain around a half inch or less, with the highest rain totals expected to the south. Showers will be possible across the coastal waters through Thursday morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
(The rest of tonight) A weak wave will wrap around the back side of a closed upper low that is currently centered over SE MO this evening.
1031 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) Latest water vapor imagery indicates a large closed low continuing to churn over the central portion of the country, nearing the Middle Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Light and somewhat variable surface flow serves to maintain fairly quiescent conditions through the next 36 hours, with another cold night ahead tonight as temperatures once again fall below freezing for most of the region.
An upper level low centered near the MO/IL border will drift into southern IN by the end of the period. Some weak short wave energy rotating around the upper low is enhancing cloud cover this morning, but this cloud cover will gradually scatter out later today. Additional short wave energy will round the base of the low later tonight and will increase cloud cover again.
From the synopsis, a small developing low pressure system will slide east through the Straits of Florida on Thursday, in advance of the next cold front. Breezes will freshen and shift rapidly as the low pressure system slides through the Keys. Thereafter, gentle to moderate northwest to north breezes will peak and lull as weak cold fronts pivot through the Gulf of Mexico.
A weak surge of high pressure this morning will maintain cool and dry conditions across S TX through Friday. Sunny skies with highs in the 60s expected both today and Friday with high pressure remaining in control over S TX. However, mid and upper level clouds are progged to track across the region overnight, which may inhibit radiational cooling and lead to minimum temperatures being a couple of degrees warmer than expected. Regardless, there is a 25-35 percent chance of a few locations across the northern Brush Country seeing temperatures briefly drop to freezing near sunrise Friday morning, mainly low lying drainage areas.
The combination of dense fog and temperatures dropping below freezing in some locations overnight may result in slick travel conditions.
EST Thu Dec 28 2023 Weak high pressure will build briefly over the Southeast states today.
Lingering showers associated with a large upper low should finally end Friday night.
516 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) A deep upper low over Missouri/Illinois and a ridge over the Rocky Mountains keep the South Plains in northerly flow the next couple of days.
512 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 (Today through Friday Night) Below normal temperatures, cloudy and breezy conditions are expected to persist across much of the state through the period as a persistent H500 cyclone slowly progresses away from the region.
514 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 (Today and tonight) A broad cyclone centered over Missouri will continue to be the main feature over the CONUS today and tonight as it moves slowly to the east. The forecast area will remain on the southwestern flank of the cyclone with an upper level short wave trough rotating to the south/southeast down the central/southern Plains with some low and mid cloud cover skirting the eastern third of the forecast area as well as reinforcing northerly surface winds and slight cooling from yesterday's highs and this morning's lows due to modest cold air advection.
High pressure will dominate through this weekend with dry conditions.
A cold front will move through this afternoon and some perhaps breezy winds will briefly accompany the passage. Chances for snow should come to an end this evening, and another cold night is expected with lows in the low to mid-20s. The upper-level trough will progress some to the southeast tomorrow and heights aloft over the Panhandles will begin to rise. Winds will remain northwesterly at 10-20 mph, and with sunshine and warmer 850mb temperatures advecting in, can expect temperatures to warm into the 50s across the Panhandles. Expect lows to be 2-3 degrees warmer than tonight.
351 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 Key Messages: - Cool front to push down across the plains today, bringing breezy conditions to the lower elevations. The main change is that it will be noticeably more breezy today across the plains, and expect winds to shift to a more northerly component around the noon hour today across the lower elevations.
626 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2023 Aviation -- Clouds and Rain or Drizzle Through Friday -- A relative pressure minimum in the lower levels will consolidate and deepen slightly over southern Michigan today, and maintain patches of rain showers or drizzle amid widespread low cloud cover. Despite the northeast flow, our area is still sourcing relatively mild air, limiting the potential for freezing temperatures. Latest consensus of short-term model guidance places the highest likelihood of rain northwest of Grand Rapids this morning, then south of Muskegon-Alma this afternoon. -- Dry Start to the Weekend -- Rain showers move out on Friday evening as stubborn upper low/trough is finally booted out by upstream kicker dropping southeast from Canada.
Closer to the island chain, dry air in the low levels has been initially hampering rain from reaching the ground but moisture is quickly surging in ahead of the front.
Finally, colder air arrives Friday, and a weak cold front will slide southeast across the region. Rain will begin to transition to snow, tapering off towards the higher summits.
622 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2023 Weak high pressure will build briefly over the Southeast states today.
640 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2023 A dry cold front will move off the coast later today.
Cooler, more seasonable temperatures will return for the second half of the weekend and for the start of the new year along with mainly fair weather. Low pressure can be seen on surface analysis and satellite imagery offshore the Jersey Shore to the south of southern New England. This low will be slowly drifting northeast through the day today.
The elongated upper low will continue to wobble eastward through tonight as several vort maxima pivot around it - supporting some bands of light precip over the Ohio River Valley and Mid-South regions.
936 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2023 Weak high pressure will build briefly over the Southeast states today.
239 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 Last gasp of light snow and flurries will move through eastern areas this morning as vorticity lobe rotates around the upper low now over Illinois.
(Today through Friday) This AM, satellite is indicating a quick drop off in cloud cover behind a cold front that is moving SEWD across C AL at this time. Behind it temps and dew points are dropping with cooler readings for today. With WNW winds ~ 5-10 MPH this afternoon along with highs some 4-10 degrees lower, it will feel much cooler today than yesterday. A large upper low is currently over MO/IL this morning and will slowly nudge/swing its way toward OH/WV through the short term.
- Potential for slick road conditions inland this morning and this evening, mainly on bridges and overpasses of any untreated roads. Areas near the lake like Sheboygan are remaining rain due to a deeper layer of above- freezing temps near the surface. Bridges and overpasses may be slippery for the morning commute. Tonight the temps may drop below freezing before the precip tapers off which could cause some slick spots. Clouds and the gusty northerly winds will gradually diminish Friday morning as low pressure moves out of the region.
Cooler, more seasonable temperatures will return for the second half of the weekend and for the start of the new year along with mainly fair weather. Rainfall rates have been as high as third to about a half of an inch at times with rainfall totals over the past 12 hours from half to an inch across those counties with the highest totals across the southern most portions.
415 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 - High pressure dominates the weather the next several days, with a warming trend kicking in tomorrow. Clear skies have dominated across much of eastern Utah and wester Colorado so far tonight as high pressure and cold, dry northwest flow remain in place. The northern valleys are currently forecast to see lows run a good 10 degrees warmer compared to previous days. All this does depend on the high clouds sticking around into the overnight hours tonight, and not dissipating quickly around sunset.
525 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 (Today) In the past 24 hours, our pesky upper low slowly crossed the state of Missouri, making its way from near Kansas City at this time yesterday to near St.
Other than the fog, the building ridge will keep us under a pattern of relatively quiet weather and above normal temperatures through much of the forecast period.
Given the low track to our south (and associated stable profiles) along with the aforementioned synoptic forcing, the rainfall will likely be primarily stratiform in nature. A cold front will progress through the area on Friday, although the front will be weakening by the time it reaches our latitude (and it won't have much moisture to work with) so expect a generally dry frontal passage. High temperatures on Friday will generally range from the mid 60s near the Lake to the low 70s near the east coast and another mostly cloudy day can be expected.
This makes it possible to see the exact western/northern extent of the low-level stratus deck on nighttime microphysics satellite imagery. Based on this satellite imagery, it does appear the low-level stratus deck is eroding fairly rapidly from northwest to southeast as high pressure centered over west central ND continues expanding across the state. Ridging over the west central CONUS and into western North Dakota, along with sunny skies and westerly flow at the surface, will help generate above average temperatures today through Friday. For reference, average highs around this time of year range from the low 20s at Jamestown, to the mid 20s at Bismarck and Minot, and to the upper 20s in Dickinson. Come this weekend, upper low pressure will slide south from central Canada down through Minnesota and the western Great Lakes region.
416 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 Last gasp of light snow and flurries will move through eastern areas this morning as vorticity lobe rotates around the upper low now over Illinois.
Cooler, more seasonable temperatures will return for the second half of the weekend and for the start of the new year along with mainly fair weather. Rainfall totals over the past 24 hours were from a half to 1 1/2 inches across those counties with the highest totals across the southern most portions with the highest total at Beacon with 1.
Surrounding clouds ~5 kft are beginning to work into our region near an advancing cold front. Temperatures will decline this evening with overnight lows in the upper 20s in our northwest counties, to the lower 40s in the southeast.
550 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - Light freezing drizzle mixed with snow is likely early this morning west of a Florence to Antigo to Wisconsin Rapids line.
Cloudy and chilly conditions will persist across the region through Friday as an upper level low pressure system remains overhead.
The area will stay dry today as the upper level low gradually wobbles southward. A couple scattered rain/snow showers can't be ruled out late tonight but the higher precip chances will hold off until Friday. The highest elevations such as Monterey and northern Fentress County have the best chance of an inch or greater of accumulation. With temperatures falling below freezing Friday night, a couple slick spots on bridges will be possible.