Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The low level response -- moist isentropic ascent with attendant clouds, fog, and rain, with maybe a rumble of thunder over the Big Bend -- will begin this evening and continue through most of the day Monday before ending late Monday afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the lower 40s over northern Lea County to the mid 50s along the Rio Grande Valley.
100 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 A weak and dry cold front will move through the area Monday night. Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control through mid week. The highest rain totals were observed across southern portions of Richmond, Scotland, Hoke, Cumberland and Sampson counties, with a 0. Highs today are favored to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s, with some cooler mid 50s possible in the SE where cloud cover will hang on the longest. High pressure will build directly overhead Monday before moving offshore. A reinforcing high pressure over the Midwest will build back into the region late Monday night.
(This evening through Monday) Quiet weather this period as high pressure over Missouri tonight will be shifting eastward tomorrow, with a ridge axis extending southeast across the TN Valley region.
1216 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure prevails through mid week. Cooler and drier conditions warm slightly mid week.
Could see the lower 60s this afternoon in the southern Red River Valley. This precipitation will be north of HWY-2 in the morning hours, and is expected to fall as rain but some CAMs are calling for freezing rain. Key Messages: 1) Ridging aloft leaves little opportunity for impactful weather. With a ridge in place controlling our weather, little looks to be in the forecast except for warming temperatures. With temperatures in the 40s during the day and 20s at night, concerns would be highest for impacts should precipitation fall in the overnight hours when it is below freezing.
High pressure is dominating the region through tonight resulting in dry conditions with highs in the 60s.
256 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 Weak upper ridging will bring dry weather and temperatures warming above normal over the next several days.
(The rest of today ) A pleasant fall day is underway across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure prevails.
940 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2023 - Decreasing winds over the higher mountains today. Both today's highs and tonight's lows should be a couple degrees warmer, in line with the current forecast. A ridge pattern aloft prevail across northeastern Colorado Monday.
Given the highs this afternoon, started with NBM 90th for Monday's highs but with the building ridge and waa wouldn't be surprised to see areas surpass the 90th percentile again. - Cooler, but still above average at the end of the work week.
A weak cold front approaches tomorrow afternoon bringing a chance of showers across the NY Thruway corridor. A strip of low stratus continues to plague parts of CNY into NEPA but with the low level ridge axis moving through on water vapor, the clouds will finally dissipate over the next few hours. With high pressure in place and clear skies, some of the NBM 10th percentile was blended in for the lows as radiational cooling will push lows below model guidance. Temperatures near the surface will be in the mid to upper 30s with dew points in the low 30s so wetbulb temperatures at lower elevations will likely be too warm for snow but above 1200 feet snow will mix in at times with any heavier showers overnight Monday.
1234 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 Aviation -- Dry and Becoming a Little Warmer -- Virga is occurring early this morning with clouds and lift around 700 mb / 10,000 feet and dry air beneath. Another wave of virga is expected over central Michigan this evening with the mid-level trough passing through. Another breezy day on Monday but a little warmer with highs climbing into the mid 50s.
/NEW/ /Through Monday/ Moisture continues to stream into the area ahead of an upper low ejecting from the Baja peninsula. Even the locations in Central Texas that do experience several hours of precipitation will not see any significant amounts, with the highest totals within the CWA (across our southernmost zones) likely only reaching about a quarter of an inch.
The second will be the arrival of a fast moving cold front that will cross the area this evening. Despite moderate forcing and CAA along the front, the high cloud bases and fairly dry air in the lower levels will make it difficult to get much near the surface. Behind the cold front, clearing skies and quiet conditions return for the overnight and last through Monday.
However, should these low clouds largely dissipate by the end of the day as forecast, it should be a good night for radiational cooling as lows will fall off into the low to mid 40s in most locations.
Key Messages: *Dry and warm weather rolls on through the period *Relative humidity values drop to around 25 to 30 percent Monday afternoon The latest surface analysis shows high pressure remains parked off to the north near the Ontario and Quebec borders in Canada. This high pressure will lead to weak northeast flow at the surface on Sunday. This will lead to at least a few degree splits, with valleys dropping into the low to mid 30s and mid to upper 30s on the ridges. On Monday, broad high pressure will be in place across the Ohio Valley, and some subtle height rises will be noted in the mid- levels.
1142 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level trough over Baja is expected to move east across West Central Texas Monday.
Boxell (Issued 244 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023) Monday Night through Sunday: High pressure builds in Monday night, with lows expected to fall to around 30 with clear skies and light winds.
240 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week, leading to dry and seasonably mild conditions. With very dry air through the lower part of the profile, temps have jumped into the mid to upper 50s amidst light sfc flow. In fact, temps should dip into the lower 30s (with a few upper 20s possible in rural/sheltered spots) in SC OH and N/NE KY, with mid/upper 30s further N in EC IN and WC OH where steadier sfc flow will evolve for the second part of the nighttime. Otherwise, mainly tranquil conditions will persist through the short term period as temps nudge into the lower 60s amidst bountiful sunshine.
1239 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure will build in from the west this afternoon, crest over the area tonight, then exit across the Maritimes Monday.
1226 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week, leading to dry and mild conditions. Mid level ridging building over the Plains will begin to push slowly east tonight into Monday with west to northwest flow continuing aloft across the Ohio Valley. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30s with highs on Monday in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Warmer temperatures on Monday. On Monday, high pressure will slide across the area. High temperatures were adjusted upward slightly for Monday especially along the Highway 20 corridor from the previous shift with widespread highs near 60 to 65 degrees.
1013 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2023 Dry and warming conditions are expected to end the weekend as heights rise under a building ridge to our south.
525 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure is dominating the region through tonight resulting in dry conditions with highs in the 60s.
As this high moves east through the evening, winds will diminish, becoming light and variable overnight. High temperatures were bumped up since there is a warming ridge a loft, using the 90th percentile of the NBM.
Most recent MSAS reveals that a closed low, as predicted by deterministic runs, is developing over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Mid level high pressure will broaden as a 500mb trough moves over Texas. Over the Atlantic, a surface disturbance will push further seaward as high pressure over the eastern CONUS shifts further east.
Key Messages: -Gusty conditions across the area as a trough builds ushering in warm air advection. Potential for a few areas to reach the lower 60s closer to the SD border. Potential is there (40%) for a few locations near the SD border to reach the lower 60s later this afternoon. Winds turn toward the south tomorrow as a ridge builds into the region. Temperatures warm into the 50s once again, with a chance for a few locations to reach the lower 60s near the SD border.
639 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 A wedge of high pressure builds in tonight and Monday. High pressure moving out of the central Plains will keep things dry and within a few degrees of normal temperature-wise through most of the week.
445 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2023 As the upper-level ridge axis shifts east of the CWA tomorrow, dry and breezy conditions are expected. The highest confidence in any zone hitting Red Flag criteria would be the Arlington/Elk Mountain zone, but even then there is maybe only a 2 to 3 hour window of optimal conditions.
308 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer than normal temperatures and very little chances for precip through this week.
726 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 (This afternoon through Monday) Subtropical ridging extends from the Bahamas across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. There is still some weakness in the low-level flow over Central Alabama, but with winds becoming more zonal, isentropic lift has diminished as well as the rain across the state.
729 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 A weak and dry cold front will move through the area Monday night. Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control through mid week. Afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s across interior sections where sunshine is abundant, with some cooler mid 50s possible in the SE where cloud cover will hang on the longest. At the surface, high pressure over the central/southern Appalachians and NC/VA will slowly weaken and retreat offshore. It will be replaced by a reinforcing shot of cool high pressure digging into the lower OH valley Mon night. This high pressure to our northwest will aid a cold front to move through late Mon night into early Tue. Look for lows to be below normal in the mid to upper 30s, except some low 30s in the typical cooler spots.
Cooler temperatures and precipitation return sometime after the middle portion of the week. For Monday and Monday night, southwesterly flow will continue over the region as an area of upper level low pressure begins pushing into the eastern Pacific.
626 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week, leading to dry and seasonably mild conditions. With very dry air through the lower part of the profile, temps have jumped into the mid to upper 50s amidst light sfc flow. In fact, temps should dip into the lower 30s (with a few upper 20s possible in rural/sheltered spots) in SC OH and N/NE KY, with mid/upper 30s further N in EC IN and WC OH where steadier sfc flow will evolve for the second part of the nighttime. Otherwise, mainly tranquil conditions will persist through the short term period as temps nudge into the lower 60s amidst bountiful sunshine.
Look for the ridge axis to pivot to an east-west orientation tonight as the parent high modifies, and ridging builds over the Plains. Expect another chilly night with the ridge axis overhead, as we radiate down into the mid/upper 30s, or a few degrees colder in the sheltered valleys. Weak warm advection setup will finally be felt at the sfc on Monday, with low-level thickness progs suggesting temps 5 or 6 degrees warmer than today.
Normal lows for tonight are in the lower to middle 30s. The low level jet shifts east late tonight into Monday morning as a front currently over the eastern Dakotas moves through. Monday night will be a little cooler than tonight with lows in the low to mid 30s.
509 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer than normal temperatures and very little chances for precip through this week.
934 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 Weak upper ridging will bring dry weather and temperatures warming above normal over the next several days.
231 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2023 As the upper-level ridge axis shifts east of the CWA tomorrow, dry and breezy conditions are expected. The highest confidence in any zone hitting Red Flag criteria would be the Arlington/Elk Mountain zone, but even then there is maybe only a 2 to 3 hour window of optimal conditions.
534 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Key Messages: -Gusty conditions across the area as a trough builds ushering in warm air advection. Potential for a few areas to reach the lower 60s closer to the SD border. Potential is there (40%) for a few locations near the SD border to reach the lower 60s later this afternoon. Winds turn toward the south tomorrow as a ridge builds into the region. Temperatures warm into the 50s once again, with a chance for a few locations to reach the lower 60s near the SD border.
535 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 (This evening through Monday) Starting tonight, the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF all indicate a low pressure system (minor disturbance aloft) moving into Texas. Areas along the I-10 corridor appear to have the highest chances for rain and also the higher rainfall totals (around half an inch). Lows will be in the lower 50s Monday morning.
Temperatures as of 02Z are exhibiting a strong ridge-valley variation as would be expected on a good radiational cooling night like tonight, with readings ranging from the mid-30s to around 50. The only changes made to the forecast was a slight increase in sky cover for the high clouds later tonight, and a reduction in low temperatures in some of the deepest valleys. Look for the ridge axis to pivot to an east-west orientation tonight as the parent high modifies, and ridging builds over the Plains. Expect another chilly night with the ridge axis overhead, as we radiate down into the mid/upper 30s, or a few degrees colder in the sheltered valleys. Weak warm advection setup will finally be felt at the sfc on Monday, with low-level thickness progs suggesting temps 5 or 6 degrees warmer than today.
423 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure is directly overhead with little movement aloft. Backed off on high temperatures as per previous shift, keeping it on the cooler side of guidance. This high pressure is transitory and will not be overhead for long as a low pressure trough pushes towards the west coast, allowing southwest flow to develop on Monday. With a deep cutoff low positioned off the West Coast and general ridging over the middle of the country, flow over the Four Corners region will continue to be southwesterly through much of the coming week.
916 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week, leading to dry and seasonably mild conditions. Skies are clear under high pressure and a very dry airmass. In fact, temps should dip into the lower 30s (with a few upper 20s possible in rural/sheltered spots) in SC OH and N/NE KY, with mid/upper 30s further N in EC IN and WC OH where steadier sfc flow will evolve for the second part of the nighttime. Otherwise, mainly tranquil conditions will persist through the short term period as temps nudge into the lower 60s amidst bountiful sunshine.
854 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure will dominate through Monday.
605 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 (This evening through Monday) Quiet weather this period as high pressure over Missouri tonight will be shifting eastward tomorrow, with a ridge axis extending southeast across the TN Valley region.
701 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 Weak upper ridging will bring dry weather and temperatures warming above normal over the next several days.
514 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 (This evening through Monday) The remnants of an UL trough which was situated over the desert southwest yesterday will move into the south-central CONUS in an area that can be otherwise be categorized as broad ridging. Low cloudiness should slowly dissipate later in the morning though mid-level cloudiness should persist resulting in slightly cooler temps on Monday.
1229 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week, leading to dry and seasonably mild conditions. Skies are clear under high pressure and a very dry airmass. In fact, temps should dip into the lower 30s (with a few upper 20s possible in rural/sheltered spots) in SC OH and N/NE KY, with mid/upper 30s further N in EC IN and WC OH where steadier sfc flow will evolve for the second part of the nighttime. Otherwise, mainly tranquil conditions will persist through the short term period as temps nudge into the lower 60s amidst bountiful sunshine.
Simultaneously, a thermal ridge presently centered over the High Plains will also slide eastward and center over the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Highs will range from the mid 40s over far northeastern North Dakota to the low 60s over the southwest. Tonight will see lows drop into the low to mid 30s for most of the forecast area.
916 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure is directly overhead with little movement aloft. Backed off on high temperatures as per previous shift, keeping it on the cooler side of guidance. This high pressure is transitory and will not be overhead for long as a low pressure trough pushes towards the west coast, allowing southwest flow to develop on Monday. With a deep cutoff low positioned off the West Coast and general ridging over the middle of the country, flow over the Four Corners region will continue to be southwesterly through much of the coming week.
High Impact Weather Potential: None Pattern Synopsis: Mid/upper-level troughing will continue to slide over the Great Lakes today as downstream ridging works across the northern Great Plains and close to the region by the end of the period. Waning support aloft as favorable advections are increasingly cut off will lead to weakening of the cyclone trekking across Ontario today.
1045 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 (This evening through Monday) The remnants of an UL trough which was situated over the desert southwest yesterday will move into the south-central CONUS in an area that can be otherwise be categorized as broad ridging. Low cloudiness should slowly dissipate later in the morning though mid-level cloudiness should persist resulting in slightly cooler temps on Monday.
308 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure crest over New England this morning providing for a cold start to the day.
High temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s each day.
Nighttime satellite imagery shows a large swath of high clouds, in line with an approaching ridge axis, approaching the ND/MT state line. As this high moves east through the evening, winds will diminish, becoming light and variable overnight. High temperatures were bumped up since there is a warming ridge a loft, using the 90th percentile of the NBM.
(Today and tonight) Fairly tranquil weather is expected over the local area today and tonight as surface ridging remains in place. Skies will remain cloudy or mostly cloudy across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas closer to an upper low traversing across Texas to our south.
Mild and dry weather will continue until a pattern change brings cooler and wetter conditions toward the end of the week. High pressure over Arizona is just starting to weaken and move eastward this evening. Temperatures are a nearly the same or warmer than last evening at this time. Continued high pressure over the southern tier of the United States will facilitate more beautiful weather over Arizona. The impetus for this pattern change is the development of a cutoff low pressure system off the California coast.
Southwest flow aloft will maintain the dry conditions through Monday as a large upper trough resides off the west coast.
This Afternoon through Next Sunday A ridge axis to our west is leaving little more than passing high clouds across the Cowboy State Sunday afternoon. The overall synoptic pattern leaves Wyoming in southwest flow aloft as the ridge axis transits the area tonight.
An upper level ridge will move east over the area today. An upper level trough currently over the southwestern U.
Temperatures across the Sisseton Hills are a bit warmer than anticipated due to the favorable southwest wind direction. Given the highs this afternoon, started with NBM 90th for Monday's highs but with the building ridge and waa wouldn't be surprised to see areas surpass the 90th percentile again. - Cooler, but still above average at the end of the work week.
1220 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 Weak upper ridging will bring dry weather and temperatures warming above normal over the next several days.
1103 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer than normal temperatures and very little chances for precip through this week.
Rain continues to spread from the coast inland into Puget Sound ahead of a cold front.
352 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week, leading to dry and seasonably mild conditions. A weak cold front will swing through the CWA later this morning through early afternoon, causing the winds to shift to the northwest. Have gone on the low side of guidance with dewpoints.
Meanwhile, low pressure developing/drifting along the Gulf Coast continues its southward shift, and the return flow of moisture really struggles this far north. A sharp long wave trof drops a cold front into/across the area by week's end.
1030 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2023 As the upper-level ridge axis shifts east of the CWA tomorrow, dry and breezy conditions are expected. The highest confidence in any zone hitting Red Flag criteria would be the Arlington/Elk Mountain zone, but even then there is maybe only a 2 to 3 hour window of optimal conditions.
(Today) Near persistent conditions expected today with period of high clouds streaming across the region as the upper low currently over far west TX tracks eastward.
145 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2023 The latest suite of GOES-16 satellite imagery indicates that the ridge axis that was overhead yesterday has pushed east of the Continental Divide as of early this morning. This is due to a strong trough currently dropping southward in the eastern Pacific just off the West Coast. Stuck in between the ridge to our east and the trough to our west, we have strengthening southwest flow over the Great Basin and Four Corners.
For today and tonight, ridging surface and aloft will build into the region with very dry air. The low afternoon relative humidity will increase the fire danger. However, given the surface ridging winds will be light.
ARS High pressure is dominating the region through tonight resulting in dry conditions with highs in the 60s.
Zonal flow is in place across the E CONUS even as the upper-level ridge has retreated southward. Over the next couple days, the low over W Texas continues propagating eastward, becomes cut off, and then slows down over the E Gulf. This unsettled pattern finally comes to a close as a longwave trough sweeps another front through the region over the weekend.
Skies were mostly cloudy across the Keys this evening with temperatures in the lower 80s and dewpoints 73-75F. Strong high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes, southeast Canada and New England was noted well north of a cold front off the southeast U. Thus, if anything, the mid-level ridging remains steady-state with just a slight north drift.
311 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 High pressure advancing from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley will keep winds light and temperatures seasonable today and tonight. Surface RH will likely bottom out in the 25-35% range this afternoon with high temperatures in the lower and middle 60s.
1025 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 (This evening through Monday) Starting tonight, the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF all indicate a low pressure system (minor disturbance aloft) moving into Texas. Areas along the I-10 corridor appear to have the highest chances for rain and also the higher rainfall totals (around half an inch). Lows will be in the lower 50s Monday morning.
West wind 5 to 10 kts continue in E ND and NW/WC MN and with that temperatures overnight have stayed abovce freezing in most areas thru 08z.