Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
410 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Satellite trends reflect lagged improvement in sky conditions early this afternoon as the first of several weekend low pressure systems retrogrades, exiting into northwest Lower Michigan. Surface analysis shows a secondary low meandering toward northern Lake Michigan as a longwave trough digs into Lower Michigan from the Upper Midwest. Brief window of diurnal recovery late afternoon and early evening should bump temperatures into the lower 60s with dewpoints holding near 50F. A quick ramp-up in effective shear to above 25 knots and FGEN forcing along an inbound cold front is expected to maintain sufficient lift, supportive of eastward-tracking multicellular convection between 23Z and 05Z.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Windy, drier, and cooler weather prevailed today. Strong northwest winds should settle down this evening as high pressure washes over the CWA. Quiet weather will prevail the remainder of the short term with a strong, mid-level blocking ridge over the Desert Southwest. Surface conditions will be dominated by broad high pressure.
1132 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2023 A strong ridge of high pressure sandwiched between a closed low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and another over the Great Lakes region will dictate conditions across the forecast area this weekend. Rising 1000-500 mb thicknesses under the ridge expands eastward over the area during the period causing temperatures to rise close to 10 degrees above normal on average across eastern Utah and western Colorado by Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, expect few clouds and warmer than normal temperatures this weekend. The high pressure ridge will remain over the region through midweek according model consensus, though it will take on a decidedly negative tilt as the Pacific Northwest low slowly moves southward along the California Coast.
1249 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, infrared satellite imagery showed that skies were clear and temperatures have dropped into the low 50s to upper 40s as post-frontal cool air moves in from the north. Water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper trough over East Texas (with storms ahead of the trough axis in far east and south Texas) continuing to move east. Today, the upper level trough will continue moving east while cool northwest flow aloft an,d at the surface will strengthen across the region.
106 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the region today ahead of a slow moving cold front.
Tonight, the low pressure system will continue sliding eastward and rain chances will gradually be decreasing through the late evening into the overnight hours. Strong pressure gradient winds on the backside of the low as it moves easterly will usher in some breezy winds (20-30mph with gusts 40mph). Sunday, upper level ridging will begin to build into the area. Northerly to westerly surface winds will help to advect cooler and stable air into the area. Temperatures will be pretty near normal in the low 80s.
As of the 2 PM hour temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s with gusty northerly winds. This downsloping flow along with a building 850 mb thermal ridge will allow temperatures to soar into the lower to mid 90s across much of the area. Temperatures may be slightly cooler in the northern Big Country depending on the timing of a cold front in the afternoon.
The Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9pm CDT across central SD west of the Missouri River, as RH values have dropped into the low 20 percent range in conjunction with the strong northerly winds. The fire weather danger will be mitigated by an offset of the strongest winds and the lowest relative humidity Sunday.
139 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023 A vigorous cold front will push through the area this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms.
Lows tonight will be a little cooler than last night, into the lower and middle 50s F. Humidity will be noticeably lower which will mean that despite temperatures today and Sunday being similar in the afternoon, with a breezy northwest wind it will likely feel a few degrees cooler in the shade. Overall, a pleasant end to the weekend is expected with temperatures most of the day in the 60s F to near 70 F and highs topping out in the lower 70s F across the area.
An upper level ridge over the western US will still influence the weather in Colorado on Sunday. Our forecast area will be under the eastern side of this ridge as moderate northwesterly flow exists. With mostly sunny skies for much of the day, temperatures will be above normal but northeast winds at the surface will keep highs a couple degrees cooler than today. An upper level ridge will build over the west early this week as an omega blocking pattern develops over North America. Models agree on the ridge axis drifting over Colorado and stalling.
229 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2023 An upper level ridge located over the Pacific Northwest will gradually shift east this week with gradually warmer temperatures and dry weather conditions. The ridge will become sandwiched between two upper level lows over the next several days - one located over the Pacific Northwest, and the other over the Great Lakes. This will pave the way for the upper low across the western U. VFR conditions will continue into tonight as high pressure remains an influence over the region.
338 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023 A vigorous cold front will push through the area this afternoon with showers and some thunderstorms.
248 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023 As of this afternoon, a large trough is diving down out of Canada and is expected to be the primary factor determining our weather for the next few days. That will be short-lived, unfortunately, as a cold front associated with the trough advances southward. As such, expect cooler than normal weather through tomorrow. Lows tonight should dip into the low 40s and rebound into the low to mid 50s tomorrow before rapid stratocumulus development. A vort max rotating around the trough should swing through tonight, bringing a secondary round of showers.
Looking at the high res models, the probability of thunder looks low, so I left the mention out of grids. A large upper low will become established over the Great Lakes tonight and will persist for the next several days. A lobe of energy will swing around the base of the low tomorrow providing some lift in the afternoon. Sunday night will be on the cool side with lows in the low to mid 40s.
213 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Weak high pressure will bring partial clearing to the area today promoting much warmer temperatures.
1114 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes and a warm front draped to our south will lead to rain for much of the time this weekend. Low pressure developing along the warm front will lift across eastern PA on Sunday, enhancing the rain with thunderstorms becoming possible.
1238 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 A weak cold front was oriented north-south through eastern sections of Missouri just prior to 08z this morning. Latest guidance has become more bullish with a lobe of vorticity rotating southward around the upper low, passing over northeast Missouri into central Illinois. This coincides with an area of stronger mid-level f-gen and CAA that will bring cooler temperatures southward tonight into Sunday.
With this stratus, western portions of the area will be much cooler than inland areas. While inland areas will be cooler than the last couple days, we are still anticipating another round of above normal temperatures inland with plenty of sunshine today.
Key Messages: * Areas to widespread frost this morning with temperatures in the lower 30s.
Should just slight moistening of the low- levels occur, convection may quickly flourish. A late season cold front will push through the Florida Keys coastal waters on Sunday, with strong to isolated severe thunderstorms possible ahead of and along the front.
(This evening through Sunday) Sunday will see an omega block begin to form over the CONUS with West Texas on the east side of the ridge. However, the main forecast concern in the short term will be the intrusion of a back door cold front Sunday afternoon. A surface cyclone will develop in east-central New Mexico and move over the South Plains during the afternoon. The surface cyclone will allow for very dry air and breezy west winds to invade the southwestern South Plains.
1245 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 (Today through Sunday Night) An upper level trough is currently digging across Central Texas this morning with the trough axis centered about the Red River Valley. This trough should push across E/SE Texas later this morning. Gusty conditions should taper off after sunset as winds decouple, with northwesterly flow further diminishing overnight as high pressure builds across the State. An 850mb ridge should settle in over Texas on Sunday. Westerly winds aloft from the 850mb ridge and clear skies should work in tandem to enhance daytime heating, bringing highs in the mid to lower 80s area wide.
1217 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Temperatures will be chilly to start the morning thanks to high pressure and persistent northerly flow keeping boundary layer temps below normal through the first part of today. Eastern fringe of ridging from the west will motion in with warmer boundary layer temps, but not enough to curb today's highs from remaining below normal. The biggest story is a strong thermal ridge axis settling over W TX and SE NM for Sunday as guidance indicates 850mb temps around 26-28C for much of the forecast area. These temps coupled with downsloping, southwesterly flow will ramp up temps into the mid-upper 80s for the high terrain and 90s across the low lands.
1143 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes and a warm front draped to our south will lead to rain for much of the time this weekend. Low pressure developing along the warm front will lift across eastern PA on Sunday, enhancing the rain with thunderstorms becoming possible.
Due to the shorter duration of the highest winds, current thinking is that an SPS may communicate these higher wind gusts more appropriately than an advisory, but will continue to evaluate that need over the coming hours. RH could also drop into the 25 to 35 percent range, which will raise wildfire danger for Sunday afternoon, although the strongest winds will be a bit offset from the lowest humidity.
1135 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2023 No real worries today as ridging builds over the area to bring a nice spring day to most locations, with sunshine, some clouds and temperatures a few degrees above seasonal normals.
644 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 A surface cold front continues to head east early this afternoon and has just about cleared our forecast area. Guidance has continued to trend cooler, and with a series of fairly strong vort lobes transiting the region, expecting showers to increase rapidly in coverage through the morning and afternoon.
610 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Sunday will see an omega block begin to form over the CONUS with West Texas on the east side of the ridge. However, the main forecast concern in the short term will be the intrusion of a back door cold front Sunday afternoon. A surface cyclone will develop in east-central New Mexico and move over the South Plains during the afternoon. The surface cyclone will allow for very dry air and breezy west winds to invade the southwestern South Plains.
As synoptic scale forcing for ascent increases over our region, a broad area of light-moderate rain and embedded lightning strikes on the cool, northwestern flank of the low will expand east-northeastward into the TN Valley beginning early this evening, with the greatest spatial coverage of precipitation expected to occur between 3-9Z.
Temperatures are expected are to be slightly cooler with highs in the 60s and lows in the low to mid 30s.
609 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Windy, drier, and cooler weather prevailed today. Strong northwest winds should settle down this evening as high pressure washes over the CWA. Quiet weather will prevail the remainder of the short term with a strong, mid-level blocking ridge over the Desert Southwest. Surface conditions will be dominated by broad high pressure.
As of this afternoon, a large trough is diving down out of Canada and is expected to be the primary factor determining our weather for the next few days. That will be short-lived, unfortunately, as a cold front associated with the trough advances southward. As such, expect cooler than normal weather through tomorrow. Lows tonight should dip into the low 40s and rebound into the low to mid 50s tomorrow before rapid stratocumulus development. A vort max rotating around the trough should swing through tonight, bringing a secondary round of showers.
606 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) Skies have continued to clear throughout the course of the day today as drier air works its way into the area behind yesterday's cold front. Highs should break into the lower 80s across much of the area, though dew points in the 50s should provide for a pleasant afternoon.
Overview: A transition period will be underway as we shift from high pressure aloft towards our next incoming system. This will likely lead towards cooler temperatures and more cloud cover, especially tomorrow when inland temperatures may be about 20 degrees cooler in some locations compared to today. Further Details: An H5 axis of high pressure will slide just east of the Cascades today/tonight as a strong closed low starts advancing towards the Pacific Northwest.
513 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2023 The amplified ridge has built into the interior of western NOAM and pushing heights some 20dam over 24 hours ago. The clear skies under this ridge and WAA aloft is pushing temperatures back to normal this afternoon and we will add another 3 to 6 degrees to that tomorrow. The forecast as a whole is mostly uneventful under this ridge. However the dynamic trop surface does show a very weak wave cresting the ridge tonight and dropping through the Colorado Rockies during the peak heating timeframe. Overnight lows will be warming slightly as well but remain below freezing in the bulk of the high country where the beefiest snowpack remains locked for a bit longer.
Dry cold front pushing into our eastern forecast zones this afternoon. The front looks to stall along the Laramie Range tonight with cooler temperatures east with light east to northeast flow.
643 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Latest surface analysis is showing a cold front extending from Michigan southward into the Mid South with a weak post frontal trough over southeastern Missouri. These areas will be in low level cyclonic flow in relatively close proximity to the upper low. Temperatures will cool down behind the front with lows falling back into the lower-mid 40s tonight and highs ranging from the mid- upper 50s over the northeast half of the CWA on Sunday where clouds are more likely closer to the upper low to the lower 60s over central and southeast Missouri where they are more likely to be some sunshine.
Temperatures will continue to trend warmer tomorrow with area streams, creeks, and rivers continuing to run full and swift.
Temps are on track to reach the low to mid 50s with a few upper 40s possible in the lower elevation areas. Onshore flow will lead to a warmer night for Sunday night.
A mid level closed low is currently tracking east across central MS and will move east of the area later tonight bringing an end to considerable convective rainfall before daybreak Sunday. Lows tonight will be a little cooler than last night, into the lower and middle 50s F. Humidity will be noticeably lower which will mean that despite temperatures today and Sunday being similar in the afternoon, with a breezy northwest wind it will likely feel a few degrees cooler in the shade. Overall, a pleasant end to the weekend is expected with temperatures most of the day in the 60s F to near 70 F and highs topping out in the lower 70s F across the area.
Satellite trends reflect lagged improvement in sky conditions early this afternoon as the first of several weekend low pressure systems retrogrades, exiting into northwest Lower Michigan. Surface analysis shows a secondary low meandering toward northern Lake Michigan as a longwave trough digs into Lower Michigan from the Upper Midwest. Brief window of diurnal recovery late afternoon and early evening should bump temperatures into the lower 60s with dewpoints holding near 50F. A quick ramp-up in effective shear to above 25 knots and FGEN forcing along an inbound cold front is expected to maintain sufficient lift, supportive of eastward-tracking multicellular convection between 23Z and 05Z.
The cold front will bring robust showers and thunderstorms that may produce wind gusts up to 40 knots with higher gusts and frequent cloud- to-ground lightning strikes. A cold front will advance through the Peninsula of Florida tonight through Sunday, then push through the Florida Keys coastal waters sometime on Sunday.
618 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Pleasant day outside with temperatures running some 5-10 degrees below normal under short wave ridging aloft. These near-record temperatures are due in part to southwesterly downslope winds and also in part to compressional warming ahead of a cold front.
A dry day is expected for Sunday with cooler than average afternoon temperatures, in the mid to upper 60s. By early morning showers will end as a cold front moves eastward out of the area.
840 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Satellite imagery this evening shows some patchy high clouds streaming across the area in NW flow aloft on the downstream side of the upper level ridge axis progressing east toward the Northern Rockies. At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure extends south from central Canada across north-central and eastern MT with the pressure gradient on the western side of the high bringing steadier east to southeast winds to the north- central MT plains.
A prevailing SW flow across the region today will manifest a strengthening thermal ridge in the low levels thanks to the downsloping wind component. A cool morning in the 40s and 50s will quickly transition to a well-above normal afternoon in terms of temperatures with widespread 90s in the low lands and well into the 80s over the high terrain out west. Over the Caprock and adjacent western plains, a cold front will motion southwest into the northern CWA by dusk, tracking steadily through the northern 2/3's of the area by sunrise on Monday. The front will struggle to make advancement into the lower confines of the Big Bend to the RGV, so expect above normal temperatures to continue on a line south of Hwy 90.
214 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a highly amplified cool trough dropping into the western half of Canada and the CONUS with a warm ridge building in response over the western half of both. Farther west another trough is rapidly closing itself off over the Pacific Northwest coast and dropping south in further response. Northeast Montana lies in northern to northwestern flow aloft nestled up against the ridge to the west with cooler air dropping in and still affecting the far east.
(Today through Monday Night) Sunday looks to feature quiet weather as ridging begins to build in overhead. An 850mb ridge should bring westerly flow aloft during the afternoon hours. On Monday, an upper level ridge over the Rockies/Great Basin will get caught between two troughs (centered over the West coast and Northeast CONUS respectively).
Strong cold air advection will drop areas in the far north into the low 40s with low 50s in the southeast.
259 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Today and tonight: Winds will be northwesterly across the area today in the wake of a low pressure system. High pressure at the surface will continue to build southeast into the region on Monday.
1050 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) Skies have continued to clear throughout the course of the day today as drier air works its way into the area behind yesterday's cold front. Highs should break into the lower 80s across much of the area, though dew points in the 50s should provide for a pleasant afternoon.
An upper level disturbance will track across the lower Ohio Valley today which could produce a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two over portions of northwest Tennessee this afternoon.
314 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 An upper level low continues to move off to the east over the Great Lakes. A north south surface pressure gradient associated with the upper low will bring gusty winds across the James River Valley this afternoon. Clear skies will also aid radiational cooling tonight dropping low temperatures below freezing. An upper level ridge over the Northern Rockies is going to progress eastward over the Northern Plains.
Ridging aloft will persist today and Monday leading to much warmer temperatures. Today's high will range from the mid 80s over the Coastal Counties to the low 90s over the Rio Grande Plains. Winds aloft at 850mb will shift southwesterly Monday, leading to even warmer temperatures over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains, pushing highs into the mid to upper 90s.
839 PM PDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Strong high pressure aloft will be weakening and moving east to start the new week. A developing trough will fill the void over the Southwest, bringing gusty southwest winds to our mountains and deserts, a deep marine layer, and periods of light rain or drizzle starting on Monday.
The Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9pm CDT across central SD west of the Missouri River, as RH values have dropped into the low 20 percent range in conjunction with the strong northerly winds. The fire weather danger will be mitigated by an offset of the strongest winds and the lowest relative humidity Sunday. The upper level pattern through the first half of the work week will feature a large upper trough over the Great Lakes, with an upper ridge over the western CONUS and Canadian Rockies. This ridge will slowly slide east through mid week, putting our region under greater influence of the ridge and leading to warmer and dry conditions. While that area has had some precipitation recently, do expect elevated fire conditions with the dry grasses and dewpoints falling into the low-mid 20s (RH values of 30-35%).
The daytime hours today will likely feature a couple of rounds of showers, with highs today only reaching the low 40s. Heading into tonight, precipitation will become more focused across eastern Wisconsin, as the upper level low shifts slightly eastward. Above freezing surface temperatures will likely limit accums to grassy and elevated surfaces. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s. In addition to the precipitation chances, winds will be very gusty across the area from tonight through Monday night, with the highest gusts occurring Monday afternoon.
317 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Much cooler and windy weather will be the prevailing theme through Monday. The large upper low will continue to deepen as it moves through the Great Lakes today. A series of channeled vort maxes rotating through the cyclonic flow will send another more subtle cold surge/trof through the region this morning that will bring a more northwest wind component and good low level CAA. Owing to the afternoon cloudiness and cooler air mass, highs today will be markedly cooler than yesterday and around 10-15 degrees below normal. An omega block will become established across the CONUS, and we remain dominated by the eastern lobe/upper low. Temperatures should be a tad warmer due to less diurnal cloudiness, although IL should see its fair share.
This will allow temperatures to warm up to highs in the lower to mid 90s over most of the region. A weak cold front will move into the Big Country late this afternoon, shifting winds the east. Despite the cold front, temperatures will be warmer tonight, with lows ranging from the lower 50s in the Big Country to upper 50s along the I-10 corridor.