Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This will change quickly over the next 6-12 hours as mid/high level clouds move over top of a gradually subsiding ridge. Temperatures in the lower Snake and Magic Valley would be more supportive of a mixed precip type during the afternoon but activity would be scattered, at best. Again, the better precip will be focused across the high country.
(Issued 356 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023) Tonight and Sunday: The main upper low will slowly track across northern WI this evening. There will be one more push of colder air with the upper low as it crosses WI late this evening. Only a dusting of snow is expected overnight, with the highest chance of that dusting toward central WI including Fond du Lac and Sheboygan. It will feel quite cold in the morning with temps in the lower 30s and a brisk northwest wind.
301 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2023 - High winds up to 80 mph in the higher mountains and Front Range Foothills on Sunday.
Aloft, a mid- level low crossing the upper midwest and an amplifying mid-level longwave trough moving into the eastern third of the country will propel a cold front across the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards the area on Sunday. As this warm front retreats northward heading into Sunday, rain chances will generally diminish until diurnal heating peaks on Sunday afternoon ahead of the cold front. Highs today and tomorrow will reach the low to mid 80s.
(Today) High pressure will allow for a pleasant December day across the region with high temperatures near or slightly below seasonal averages (lower 50s/ upper 40s).
Tonight and Sunday Northeast Wisconsin is currently in a lull for precipitation as the second punch of this low pressure system, shown as a potent mid level PV anomaly on water vapor satellite imagery, is currently making its way into western Wisconsin. Outside of the lake effect snow showers ending across north- central Wisconsin Sunday morning, dry conditions are expected across the region on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds in across the upper Mississippi Valley. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with cool northwest surface winds. Highs on Sunday are expected to range from the upper 20s across the north, to the lower to middle 30s across east-central and northeast Wisconsin.
1033 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) What is a cold front? Is it the northerly wind shift that happened overnight last night? Is it the increase in northerly winds currently happening across the area that is also putting a halt to afternoon heating? Such is the fun of forecasting weather in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico where our weather is not as textbook as it is farther east. Southerly winds develop Sunday so lows Sunday night, while cold, will be several degrees warmer than tonight.
1259 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 (06Z TAFS) VFR through the initial part of the cycle with mainly light SE winds before concern shifts to showers and storms pushing SE across terminals generally after around 21-22Z or so ahead of an approaching cold front.
1125 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2023 - High winds up to 80 mph in the higher mountains and Front Range Foothills on Sunday.
(Today and tonight) Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected today ahead of and along an approaching strong cold front. Dew points have trended warmer than previous forecast this morning, supporting perhaps more instability than previously forecast. Much cooler and drier air will push into the region after the front with breezy northwest winds.
Low level convergence along the trough is leading to an enhanced band of light to moderate snow, which is dropping a quick half inch to inch of snow. Because of cyclonic flow aloft and thermal troughing in the low levels, slowed down the clearing trend. High pressure will build into the region tonight with winds diminishing. Low level temps will be similar to today, so highs will range from the low to mid 30s.
1202 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 (Tonight) A cold front was located from east of metro Nashville, across NW AL and NE MS. A threat of severe weather will wane from west to east as the cold front moves further eastward.
Secondary mid level short wave energy trailing this initial wave will advance across Se Mi late this afternoon/evening and will maintain broader mid level troughing across the Great Lakes region through tonight. With the mid level trough passing east of the area on Monday, mid level confluence/subsidence will expand across Lower Mi. The low level flow will back toward the southwest late Monday/Monday night, driving a warmer and drier low level airmass into Se Mi which will promote a clearing trend.
Early morning satellite and radar imagery showed a broad swath of overrunning moisture spilling over a shallow ridge positioned over the region and into Washington, Oregon and the Idaho Panhandle. Numerical models continue to show this activity sinking south into the CNTRL and NE mountains today resulting in some decent low end Advisory level snowfall across the higher elevations of the CNTRL and ERN mountains generally above 7500 ft MSL. Accumulations along Interstate 15 from Blackfoot to Idaho Falls run about 1 to 2 inches while the Caribou Highlands run up towards the lower end of the Advisory range for this second impulse Monday.
In the wake of the weak cold front this morning, temperatures are forecast to sink into the mid 60s to lower 70s tonight, accompanied by mostly clear skies.
Everyone else will see building clouds into Monday night as the UL Low approaches, and highs in the low to mid 70s.
and Monday A cold front will sweep through the region this afternoon and this evening, bringing a round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms as it tracks through the region. Highs today will be cooler; ranging from the lower 70s across the north to around 80 across east-central and northeast Wisconsin away from the lakeshore. Once the cold front moves off to the east this evening, the region should mainly remain dry for the rest of tonight. Highs on Monday will be even cooler; ranging from the upper 60s across the north to the middle 70s across east-central Wisconsin.
(This evening through Monday) Quieter weather is expected tonight and Monday as upper level high pressure builds eastward with increasing heights over the forecast area.
An additional threat of isolated to scattered storms will occur during the afternoon and evening as the cold front moves southeastward through east-central and southeast MO and southwest IL where there will be very unstable and weakly capped conditions but only weak forcing.
We'll enjoy one last day of "not as hot" conditions today as high temperatures this afternoon top out in the upper 90s to low 100s for most with the coolest spots being in the higher elevations and across the northern Permian Basin. This is due in part to the center of the ridge still being back over the Great Basin and any lingering effects of the outflow currently pushing through. The upper ridge starts its eastward jog tonight into Monday, found across the Four Corners Monday afternoon.
125 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Synoptic Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge, presently situated over the Intermountain West, will shift eastward to the 4-Corners (today). will begin to shift north and east of the Tri-State area today -- as the aforementioned ridge progresses eastward from the Intermountain West to the 4-Corners. Profound synoptic subsidence associated with the advancing ridge will suppress most -- or all -- diurnal convection on the eastern slopes of the Rockies (from NM north to WY). Simulated reflectivity forecasts via recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest that low-level convergence associated with a weak thermal trough/low may foster the development of isolated convection along and south of I-70 (between Oakley and Scott City) ~21Z. associated with the upper level ridge approaching from the west.
A drier airmass behind a cold front will keep humidity at manageable levels today and keep thunderstorms at bay today. A warm front will lift north across the Midsouth tomorrow, ushering in higher humidity for a period of very hot and dry conditions midweek.
232 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Current 500 mb analysis shows the upper ridge centered over the western CONUS with northwesterly flow over the area. Low temperatures fall into the low to middle 60s. On Monday, the upper ridge continues to shift east.
500 mb high pressure easing into the Four Corners area will remain the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA through the period.
1248 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 (Today through Monday) Key Message: - Dangerous heat continues A strong 594 DM upper level ridge will remain over South Texas through Monday maintaining hot and dry conditions.
945 AM PDT Sun Jul 16 2023 While the valleys, mountains and deserts broil under a hot July sun, cooler marine air will moderate temperatures within a few miles of the coast. In contrast, 60 miles to the west, it was 35 degrees cooler with coastal temperatures in the mid 60s at Laguna Beach and Del Mar.
145 PM PDT Sun Jul 16 2023 While the valleys, mountains and deserts broil under a hot July sun this week, cooler marine air will moderate temperatures within a few miles of the coast.
Areas along and north of Interstate 44 have the highest chances for seeing these storms.
For now, have kept the highest POPs in the far south associated with the complex, but keep 20-30s farther north with the other development. Meanwhile, a mid-level wave moving from the northern Plains into the Midwest today will help push a surface cold front south into Kansas.
The trough axis, positive vorticity advection, and frontogenesis line up with some elevated instability available to tap into. Drier conditions are expected Monday and Monday night as high pressure slowly builds into the area. Temperatures will be a little cooler than today with highs in the 70s across the area.
High temperatures are to reach the low 100s for much of the inland portions, the mid to upper 90s along the southernmost portions, and in the low to mid 90s. If rain does develop over these regions, the highs could be slightly cooler than forecast.
Will everyone see rain each day? No, but starting tomorrow, as an upper level low parks itself over eastern Canada and an upper level ridge intensifies to our west, the Mid- Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys will firmly be in an exit region of northwesterly flow aloft.
Afternoon high temperatures will be a bit warmer today as most locations warm into the 90s under clearing skies.
202 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Weak high pressure will bring mostly dry conditions to the region this evening. A cold front will push southeast through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight into Monday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. For Monday, a stronger s/wv in the west/northwest flow aloft, will help push a cold front southeast into our region. For Monday night, models agree that the aforementioned cold front will slow down as it makes its way south toward the Ohio River. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 60s.
1229 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 A weak cold front will move east of the region this morning. A cold front will slowly move across the region early this morning.
Visibilities have already improved from Mobridge to Watertown this afternoon and are expected to improve near Pierre by evening. High pressure builds in from the northwest tonight and Monday. As the high pushes east, southeast sfc flow will help draw some higher dewpoints into the region ahead of lee side troughing on the Rockies.
1135 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 (Rest of Today) Behind a cold front, we are feeling a bit misled.
As a result, have the highest pops located across the N to E zones this afternoon and tonight. This 11C is cooler than the 15 to 16C like we have seen in recent days. The low level hodograph looks unfavorable for tornadoes at this time. There might be slight backing of winds later tonight, but overall the threat still looks unfavorable due to the mentioned unfavorable hodo in the low levels of the atmosphere. For monday, an upper level ridge starts to build in from the SW.
Upper-level ridging continues to build back across the area through Monday, with overnight temperatures tonight only settling into the mid to upper 70s.
We will continue to be under the influence of troughing on the eastern half of the country, while ridging aloft continues to pack it's punch over the west.
A cold front pushing southeast across the area this morning, will allow for west-northwest winds to become breezy today and usher in a drier low to mid level air mass. As the main upper-level trough digs across MN and into WI later today and tonight, there will be enough forcing to scattered showers and storms going across northern WI, which will then slowly drop down into central and southern WI. Temperatures today look to top out in the lower 80s for much of the area, then with the drier air mass and lighter winds expected tonight we should see a pleasantly cool night with lows in the 50s.
To our north, a cold front associated with a wave moving north of the area will push into the area today. The cold front pushing south should help to mix and shunt the smoke south of the area. This dense smoke kept highs cooler than forecast yesterday. Cold front will push the active boundary south of the area and lead to lows in the 50s to low 60s tonight. High pressure will skirt the area on Monday. With the cold front south of the area, and drier air in place, expect a dry Monday.
This means that generally speaking, we will continue to average out a little cooler than average, with occasional chances for rain.
High pressure will linger across the area leaving these hot and dry conditions in place for areas south of the Big Country.
The respite will be brief because another surge of smoke is expected, starting around midnight ahead of a cold front dropping south through the area. - Showers overnight, maybe a Lake Michigan storm - Model guidance indicates lingering surface based conditional instability over Lake Michigan tonight that will be marginally ample to support thunderstorms ahead of the approaching cold front.
451 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Scattered showers will finally come to an end this evening as high pressure builds in for later tonight.
A cold front will approach and move into northern Iowa by this evening and this may produce some isolated convection with main concern from gusty winds and possibly some hail across the north. Meanwhile, a moisture gradient exists over central Iowa this afternoon along with the higher instability and this may also act as a focus for convection into the evening and overnight as the front approaches. Quiet weather is expected on Monday into Monday night across central Iowa with cool temperatures and low humidity as a thermal trof passes just northeast of the area.
The ridge nudges back to the east on Monday meaning temperatures are likely to be a little hotter.
647 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 A deep upper level low for mid July will remain over eastern Canada into mid week.
Focus will turn northward to an outflow boundary extending from SE MO through southern KS and intercepting a weak cold front across NW KS.
819 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 High pressure will remain centered off the southeast coast this week. High pressure builds eastward with drier air finally moving into the region on Monday which will help to keep heat index readings in check.
An upper low will bring cooler temperatures and rain chances to the area for the rest of today and again on Monday.
736 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 A deep upper level low for mid July will remain over eastern Canada into mid week.
Mid to upper level moisture continues to stream northward around the periphery of the strong ridge this afternoon.
Current temperatures are around 4 degrees warmer over the plains then they were at this time yesterday. Models show the upper high and upper ridge now over the southwestern U. The low level pressure gradient will remain weak as well. Temperature and thickness fields show Monday's afternoon highs 3-4 C warmer than today's highs.
623 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Key Message -Monday will be another coolish day, but the tide is turning toward warmer weather again Clouds and winds will decrease during the early to mid evening, leading to another cool night (upper 40s).
The end of tonight's convective rainfall "should" herald in a more stable and hotter weather pattern as the intense subtropical ridge builds in, especially beyond Monday. Overnight lows will range in the low 70s. Highs in the lower to middle 90s and dewpoints in the middle to upper 70s will increase heat indices ranging from 105-110 degrees for most of the region.
While much of the area saw some rain/outflow cooling from earlier convection parts of SEMO did not and coupled with most low level moisture advection (Dewpoints in the high 70s) some surface based instability may linger as well. Although with dewpoints in the high 70s over Arkansas moisture return with even a little low level advection will be strong and could lead to additional destabilization behind convection.
Overall, conditions remain quiet and cool, with temperatures generally in the low to mid-60s. Key Message -Monday will be another coolish day, but the tide is turning toward warmer weather again Clouds and winds will decrease during the early to mid evening, leading to another cool night (upper 40s).
Current 500 mb analysis shows the upper ridge centered over the western CONUS with northwesterly flow over the area. Low temperatures fall into the low to middle 60s. On Monday, the upper ridge continues to shift east.
650 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 (This evening through Monday) Quieter weather is expected tonight and Monday as upper level high pressure builds eastward with increasing heights over the forecast area.
Axis of the broad trough across the eastern US will pass over our area tomorrow afternoon and evening.
With the upper-level ridge building in overhead, high pressure and synoptic subsidence will dominate most of our region Today and Tomorrow. Tomorrow, high temps will climb further, hitting over 100 across the plains and low-mid 90s over the high valleys and the Palmer Divide. Beneath the upper ridge, synoptic winds are still pretty weak, so despite the heat there are currently no major fire weather concerns to note, although fuels continue to dry under the onslaught of summer.
1058 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 A deep upper level low for mid July will remain over eastern Canada into mid week.
Not expecting much if anything measurable from this, but have maintained slight chance/low chance pops for these areas through 06Z Monday as the trough exits the area, before going with the dry forecast for the overnight hours through at least midday Monday.
946 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 (Issued 946 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023) Scattered showers and storms are just ahead of a cold front and strong upper wave. The trough axis, positive vorticity advection, and frontogenesis line up with some elevated instability available to tap into. Drier conditions are expected Monday and Monday night as high pressure slowly builds into the area. Temperatures will be a little cooler than today with highs in the 70s across the area.
Earlier this evening, cloud streamers congealed into a cumulus cloud line along the Lower Keys that ended up dropping over an inch of rainfall in some island communities. This evening's sounding sampled a saturated layer in the lower levels, which is likely due to a cloud layer associated with a nearby shower along the aforementioned cloud line.
Upper level trough moving through late tonight into Monday for a chance of showers.
High pressure will maintain very hot and dry conditions through Monday.
Guidance still suggests the moisture and instability pooling up near this boundary could get some isolated to scattered daytime showers and storms going over northern and eastern zones, but to the southwest of there there the building upper ridge will have far more influence. This ridge influence in at least southwestern zones will likely necessitate another Heat Advisory being needed there, although we will defer issuance of another Heat Advisory to the overnight shift because there is uncertainty of how much of the area will meet this criteria tomorrow.
612 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 A few more showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow with high temperatures generally in the low 90s.
740 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 An upper low over northern Minnesota is forecast to sweep across Lake Superior and Ontario overnight and then push into Quebec on Monday. Potent upper low currently over northern MN is forecast to move across Lake Superior late tonight and then Ontario into NW Quebec on Monday. Persistent pattern to continue with large upper high and extreme heat over southwest states and troughing over the Great Lakes.
AC3 A few more showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow with high temperatures generally in the low 90s.
649 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Southeast Illinois will see scattered thunderstorms early this evening, then additional storms will develop tonight into Monday along a cold front moving into central Illinois from the northwest.
321 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Scattered thunderstorms will develop ahead of a slow-moving cold front this afternoon. Further north, the remainder of central Illinois will remain dry until a cold front currently extending from near Milwaukee to just north of Kansas City settles southward and triggers widely scattered convection later this morning into the afternoon. After a few lingering showers/storms across the SE CWA this evening, cooler/drier conditions will filter southward overnight. High temperatures today will mostly be in the lower to middle 80s, while lows tonight dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
A mid to upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest is going to be shifting east today and tomorrow, bringing with it ever increasing H85 temperatures. A trough at the surface will bring forth downsloping southwest winds and lower Tds in the 40s-50s. Going into tomorrow the H5 high pressure continues to over take the Southern Great Plains with H85 temperatures getting even warmer, around 34 to 35 degrees C.
Fog should begin to burn off later this morning, and low level westerly flow will help temperatures warm today as an upper trough axis shifts over the local area.
(Today and tonight) The heat returns to the forecast area today as the 600 dam 500 mb ridge expands towards us. At the surface, troughing will also develop leading to a return of southerly to southwesterly winds around 15 mph across the area.
345 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Today, high pressure will bring fair and warm weather with smoky and hazy skies. Tonight an upper level trough and cold front approaches from the west. Short waves, a prefrontal trough and better moisture will keep convection going all night. Tuesday the cold front goes through in the afternoon. Smoke moves in today and remains until the cold front pushes it out on Tuesday. With the showers, highs look to only reach the low and mid 80's.
1208 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 (This evening through Monday) Quieter weather is expected tonight and Monday as upper level high pressure builds eastward with increasing heights over the forecast area.
Temperatures will come down a few degrees, but will remain dangerous, especially with the higher humidity.
406 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 High pressure briefly builds across the area today.
(Today and tonight) High pressure will continue to build across the region driving temperatures even higher for today. Pretty much all of our models continue this high pressure across the region giving us high confidence in this forecast.
Messy pattern continuing into Monday with upper level ridge to the west and Upper level low positioned over the western Great Lakes. Better chances of storms are expected Monday night across the northern plains as a short wave moves across flattening the upper level ridge. South of where the complex moves, upper level ridge to the west expands east leading to warm and muggy conditions.