Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Geelhart An upper trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. Even after the low clouds are gone, NAM/RAP layer RH profiles indicate high clouds streaming across the area overnight. Despite high pressure building overhead and winds becoming light/variable, at least partial cloud cover will help mitigate optimal radiational cooling. It will still be a cold night with lows in the lower 20s, but do not think readings will drop quite as far as they could under completely clear skies. After a period of high clouds during the morning, skies will become sunny across the board by Monday afternoon as highs rebound into the lower to middle 40s.
Confidence remains high on a fairly benign week of weather, as the pattern of northwest flow aloft transitions to broad ridging over the second half of the week.
(This evening through Monday) The longwave trough axis is currently traversing eastward across the Southeast, with deep-layer flow becoming northwesterly here in Central Alabama. The surface cold front has moved through Troy, and is almost through Auburn as of midday with only leftover post-frontal light rain and drizzle stretching from Anniston southward to Montgomery. Temperatures elsewhere will fall near the freezing mark. Despite full sunshine, temperatures will struggle to reach the 50 degree mark across the north and northeastern counties, while highs in the low to mid 50s are expected elsewhere. Dry conditions will be in place on Monday as high pressure moves into the region.
Upper level trough will continue to influence the area today with just some showers around.
404 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2023 138 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2023 - Cold front could bring light snow to the northern Black Hills and southwestern parts of the CWA Mon/Tues. The latest water vapor images and 500-mb analysis showed an upper ridge over the western CONUS with a trough over the eastern CONUS, leaving the northern plains beneath northwest flow aloft. At the surface, a trough axis was over western SD, with much less wind than the last few days. At the same time, an upper-level Canadian low pressure will flatten the ridge as it swings southeastward tonight into Monday. Its associated cold front will sweep through the CWA Monday afternoon and evening, resulting in some breezy NW winds, along with some light upslope snow over the northern BH.
This will likely limit precipitation from falling as freezing rain, as evaporative cooling will cool the elevated warm nose forcing the entire column to mainly be below the 0 degree isotherm. However, the NBM still indicates a low (15 to 25 percent) probability of freezing rain.
709 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 A cold front and mid level wave of low pressure support scattered light rain and snow showers across Lower Mi for a few more hours this evening. There is also a broad area of MVFR stratus over the upper Midwest but no clear signal yet on how aggressively it moves into Lower Mi as high pressure advances eastward. Adjusted the forecast in favor of sprinkle and/or flurry mentions tonight as temperatures have largely overachieved, but with colder nocturnal air inbound, expect the cloud-bearing saturated layer to settle into the warmer end of the DGZ by 03Z. The upper level pattern becomes ridged over for approximately 24 hours offering dry and seasonably cool conditions.
Widespread freeze/frost is expected as a result of temperatures being near/slightly below freezing.
321 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023 A ridge of high pressure will settle in for the upcoming week.
A low pressure disturbance may bring rain and snow showers to eastern Arizona midweek. This is due to a stable mass of high pressure pushing into the Pacific Southwest. A low pressure disturbance currently tucked away in the Pacific Northwest will dive down the Mountain states over the coming days.
High pressure moving in from the west will bring drier air tonight and tomorrow, but there is some moisture trapped beneath an inversion around 3000 ft. Winds will be light as high pressure moves across the middle Mississippi Valley.
Meanwhile, overrunning of the cold pool roughly along and southeast of a line from KCAG to KEEO is expected to bring occasional showers to the lower elevations west of the mountains with snow amounts near or below an inch. Snow over the northern mountains dissipates late Monday afternoon/early Monday evening as a trough deepens over the West.
After several nights of cold weather prompting Frost/Freeze headlines temperatures tonight will be warmer thanks to the cloud cover and approaching surface front from the NW. A weak cold front off the OR coast will continue to track southward over the next 24 hour. While land areas look mostly dry, the front will bring some clouds and cooler conditions on Monday.
Tonight and Monday A relatively quiet period lies in store from this afternoon through Monday, as upper ridging slides into the area. So far today, persistent low cloud cover has kept temperatures in the area relatively cool, with most not reaching the low 30s. Between the cooler start this afternoon, potential clearing, fresh snow pack, and light winds, kept the much colder temperatures in place across the region. Monday, quiet conditions continue under high pressure. Expect clear skies with plenty of sunshine and relatively mild near- normal temperatures for December, with highs in the lower 30s.
Where skies have cleared temperatures have plummeted, as low as 22F at Galesburg, while cloudy areas near the IN border are still in the lower 30s. 00z surface map indicated a ridge axis stretched from the TX Gulf coast up the Mississippi River Valley, and will provide light to calm winds overnight. So based on trends have undercut guidance by a few degrees, and lowered mins to the low/mid 20s.
703 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 As a cold front moves into the region from the west this afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into tonight. The main cold front is currently stretched from NW SC SW across central GA to the FL panhandle. Latest high resolution models indicate rain area shifting east this evening and early tonight, with the cold front traversing the FA from W to E from about 00z to 05z, with precipitation pushing out of our FA late tonight. Cold air advection is expected to continue during the day, keeping afternoon highs several degrees below normal in the lower to mid 50s. There is a high chance of temperatures bottoming out below freezing for most.
631 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) Winds will continue to die down across the area into tonight as the responsible trough continues to eject eastward. The mid and upper level flow will become more zonal as we head into tomorrow with a weak mid-level ridge beginning to nudge into Texas tomorrow night. Temperatures will dip down into the 30s tonight across much of the region with portions of McMullen and Live Oak Counties seeing temperatures just below freezing for a few hours.
Adjusted the forecast in favor of sprinkle and/or flurry mentions tonight as temperatures have largely overachieved, but with colder nocturnal air inbound, expect the cloud-bearing saturated layer to settle into the warmer end of the DGZ by 03Z. The upper level pattern becomes ridged over for approximately 24 hours offering dry and seasonably cool conditions.
The exception will be the lower valleys of north central Idaho and the southern Bitterroot valley.
114 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023 High pressure will continue to yield dry weather, valley inversions, and near average temperatures this week. Widespread high clouds continue to stream across a dirty high pressure ridge across the Western U. This ridge has been responsible for our light winds and poor ventilation in the valleys thanks to some very strong valley inversions.
210 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023 A ridge of high pressure will settle in for the upcoming week.
513 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 (Through Tonight) A chilly and quiet night is on tap for tonight, with winds returning to a southerly direction across parts of northeast Oklahoma as the axis of high pressure currently extending across the forecast area shifts to the east. Overnight lows should be closer to MOS guidance than the warmer NBM values, especially in the typical colder locales and closer to the ridge axis in southeast Oklahoma. Cloud cover will increase toward mid week, as an upper level low in the southwestern United States begins to make its slow approach toward the south central part of the country.
Areas of high clouds continue over NorCal on GOES-18 West imagery today, though that didn't stop temperatures in the Valley from reaching near to below freezing in many places this morning.
Heavier snow is expected over the ridges and I-80 corridor where accumulations are likely. -Snow will likely be wet and heavy between 8pm and 2am Monday and could be difficult to shovel in the ridges. Snow will likely start as wet before becoming fluffy/dry early Monday morning and could impact shoveling conditions along the ridges as snow liquid ratios start near 4:1 and ramp up to 12:1 between 8pm tonight to 2am Monday. Ridging over the Central Appalachians will likely clear the sky Monday night.
840 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Cold air continues to filter in with the northerly winds with numerous observation sites already at or below freezing.
650 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2023 - High winds up to 75 mph in the higher mountains and Front Range Foothills until 5 pm this afternoon. - Light snow in the mountains through Monday, possibly spilling onto northern plains Monday night with a little freezing drizzle as well.
247 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2023 - High winds up to 75 mph in the higher mountains and Front Range Foothills until 5 pm this afternoon. - Light snow in the mountains through Monday, possibly spilling onto northern plains Monday night with a little freezing drizzle as well.
High pressure will then build in for most of the week bringing cool and dry weather once again. Currently best chance for showers or a stray storm is along the coast but this will increase across the CWA over the next several hours as a cold front approaches. A cold front will move through the area overnight, preceded by scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 40s after the front passes with highs Monday in the low to mid 50s.
The best chance for any will be along and south of the I-80 corridor as the main upper level trough dips to the southwest of the CWA where there is better PVA to work with. This will be when the main trough closes off near the Four Corner Region before it ejects eastward into the mid plains. Otherwise, upper level ridging builds in from the west for mid week as convergence aloft increases.
136 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023 135 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023 - Cold front will bring light snow to the northern Black Hills and southwestern SD today and Tuesday. A Canadian low pressure system is dragging a cold front into the northern US. As the cold front slides through the CWA today, northwesterly winds will become breezy (15-20 mph with gusts around 30 mph). Temps will warm back into the 40s and 50s for the rest of the week, as split flow develops and upper ridging dominates our weather pattern.
1221 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) High pressure will control the weather pattern through the short term promoting calm and dry conditions.
Clouds may limit overnight cooling a bit, but most of the region should be below freezing by morning.
Limited weather concerns are expected in the short term as weak ridging and zonal flow sets up across the western US.
/NEW/ /Monday and Tuesday/ A high pressure center currently centered over East Texas will continue to move east the next couple of days. South flow has returned, but light winds and mostly clear skies will allow most outside of immediate urban areas to fall below freezing this morning. South to southwest winds today will aid in airmass modification, with today's highs peaking 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. An upper trough will deepen over the Western CONUS early this week. Tonight should be cool, but slightly warmer with only a few locations across northeast Texas falling to freezing Tuesday morning. Dense cirrus moving in Tuesday will limit insolation and keep highs in the low to mid 60s. Within this southerly flow regime, expect temperatures to top out in the low to mid 60s despite the increase in cloud cover.
(Through Tonight) A chilly and quiet night is on tap for tonight, with winds returning to a southerly direction across parts of northeast Oklahoma as the axis of high pressure currently extending across the forecast area shifts to the east. Overnight lows should be closer to MOS guidance than the warmer NBM values, especially in the typical colder locales and closer to the ridge axis in southeast Oklahoma.
1210 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023 - Patchy freezing drizzle may cause light trace icing on elevated surfaces and perhaps bridges late this evening.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) It is going to be another chilly morning across the region to start the week as temperatures will fall to near freezing across the bulk of that area. As troughing continues to translate east across the Great Lakes this afternoon with another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest, mid-level ridging and increasing heights are expected across the southern Great Plains.
(Today through Tuesday) Quiet weather for the next 2 days as high pressure builds in. The coldest areas will be cooler microclimates in the northeast.
Drier and a bit warmer through the week ahead. With southerly winds, temperatures tonight will be slightly warmer in the upper 20s in the Mark Twain National forest areas and the lowers 30 elsewhere.
Dry high pressure will then build in from the west today and linger over the area through Tuesday.
Synoptic/water vapor/RAP analysis indicates longwave trough across the Ohio Valley down through the Appalachians, while mean northwesterly flow in the low levels & aloft is helping bring in broad subsidence. Lows will fall near to below freezing areawide, with widespread freeze/frost expected across the region. Widespread freeze/frost is expected as a result of temperatures being near/slightly below freezing.
(Today and tonight) Veered low level flow will aid in bringing some warmer air eastward into the area from the higher terrain to our west. This will begin to bring higher dewpoints back northward into the area and along with abundant high clouds will keep temperatures a bit warmer than the last couple of days.
1005 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 New Information added to update section Raised the low temperatures for tonight as cloud cover is slow to clear due to moisture trapped below a temperature inversion. Tonight and Monday A relatively quiet period lies in store from this afternoon through Monday, as upper ridging slides into the area. So far today, persistent low cloud cover has kept temperatures in the area relatively cool, with most not reaching the low 30s. Between the cooler start this afternoon, potential clearing, fresh snow pack, and light winds, kept the much colder temperatures in place across the region. Monday, quiet conditions continue under high pressure. Expect clear skies with plenty of sunshine and relatively mild near- normal temperatures for December, with highs in the lower 30s.
Elevated regions in these counties will likely be slightly above freezing, but many low lying areas will be near or below freezing. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 40s across the region as the lower levels have recovered their sfc moisture with the radiational cooling. (Tonight through Monday night) Winds will continue to die down across the area into tonight as the responsible trough continues to eject eastward. The mid and upper level flow will become more zonal as we head into tomorrow with a weak mid-level ridge beginning to nudge into Texas tomorrow night. Temperatures will dip down into the 30s tonight across much of the region with portions of McMullen and Live Oak Counties seeing temperatures just below freezing for a few hours.
959 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023 A ridge of high pressure will settle in for the upcoming week.
255 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023 A strong cold front will push off the North Carolina coast this morning.
As winds become more Srly today and tomorrow, expect high temps to moderate back into the upper 50s to low 60s, w/ cooler overnight lows in the mid 30s the next few nights.
Under the clouds, temperatures were in the lower 30s, but out across our far west in the clear skies, temperatures were in the low-mid 20s. Overnight lows will be in the lower 30s under the clouds, with lower-mid 20s out across the far west in the clear skies. For today, high pressure out to the west will build eastward. As for temperatures, highs will range from the lower 40s over SE Indiana and the Bluegrass region of central KY to the lower/mid 40s over our far southwestern areas. For tonight, high pressure will be located to our east and we'll see a continued light flow out of the south. Current thinking is we'll see a ridge/valley split with the decoupled/protected valleys going into the low-mid 20s with the ridges staying in the upper 20s to around 30.
Despite abundant sunshine expected on Monday, daytime highs won't be a great deal warmer than yesterday's.
Where skies have cleared temperatures have plummeted, as low as 22F at Galesburg, while cloudy areas near the IN border are still in the lower 30s. 00z surface map indicated a ridge axis stretched from the TX Gulf coast up the Mississippi River Valley, and will provide light to calm winds overnight. So based on trends have undercut guidance by a few degrees, and lowered mins to the low/mid 20s. The passage of a cold front Tuesday will only result in some increase in clouds behind it.
(Now through Monday) A highly amplified mid and upper level trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to gradually shift eastward through tonight. Low clouds should eventually scatter out through the evening for areas east of I-65 as drier air advects southeastward in the low levels and overall isentropic descent wins out. Continued strong cold air advection continues through tonight which should result in cold temperatures in the upper 20s over interior areas north of I-10 to around freezing along the I-10 corridor. Areas south of I-10 to the coast should remain above freezing but still drop into the mid to upper 30s. Clear and cool conditions can be expected on Monday as high pressure builds back over the forecast area.
QUIET WEATHER WEEK AHEAD: The upper-level trough responsible for yesterday's light snow event continues to slowly shift off to the east leaving the Upper Mississippi Valley in a northwesterly upper-level flow pattern resulting in near-seasonable temperatures through Tuesday. High pressure builds in overhead for the second half of the week helping usher in mild temperatures, dry conditions, and mostly sunny skies. There is an increase in the uncertainty with this event as major differences for the timing, location, and strength of the trough can be seen between the global models.
1152 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 (Rest of tonight) The axis of a sharp mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward and out of the TN Valley this evening, with a modest increase in WNW flow aloft expected as this occurs. As a ridge of high pressure noses further northeastward into the Arklamiss region early Monday morning, winds should become light/variable, and this may allow for the development of spotty freezing fog (especially across northwest AL).
Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east across Canada and into the Great Lakes region. The associated cold front will sag across the area tomorrow, cooling temperatures into the 40s and low 50s.
1041 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Cold air continues to filter in with the northerly winds with numerous observation sites already at or below freezing.
- A cold front will bring increased cloud cover, a return to temperatures in the 30s, along with a few flurries mainly north of I-80 to the area on Tuesday. Clouds will then once again be on the increase across the area Monday evening as a weak cold front approaches the local area from the north. weak ridging aloft will build back across the plains as an upper level low cuts off across the desert southwest.
High pressure will then build in for most of the week bringing cool and dry weather once again. Have issued SPSs for the possibility of 45 mph gusts with this overnight cold frontal passage. A cold front will move through the area overnight, preceded by scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 40s after the front passes with highs Monday in the low to mid 50s.
1046 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance Raised the low temperatures for tonight as cloud cover is slow to clear due to moisture trapped below a temperature inversion. Tonight and Monday A relatively quiet period lies in store from this afternoon through Monday, as upper ridging slides into the area. So far today, persistent low cloud cover has kept temperatures in the area relatively cool, with most not reaching the low 30s. Between the cooler start this afternoon, potential clearing, fresh snow pack, and light winds, kept the much colder temperatures in place across the region. Monday, quiet conditions continue under high pressure. Expect clear skies with plenty of sunshine and relatively mild near- normal temperatures for December, with highs in the lower 30s.
Lake effect precip will continue to wind down this morning as midlevel trough axis exits and subsidence inversion heights steadily lower. WAA continues into Tue ahead of a cold front being driven by northern Lakes midlevel trough. Strong subsidence/high pressure then settles into the Ohio Valley for Wed setting us up for some chilly nights with ideal radiational cooling. Slow but steady moderation in temps expected through the weekend as low level ridge slowly moves east.
(Tonight through Monday Night) Coldest night of the season unfolding for our four state area with already some readings below or at freezing in Atlanta and Magnolia. This area of high pressure will drift along the coast and cross the MS River by midday with a light return flow developing mid to late morning.
(Rest of tonight) The axis of a sharp mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward and out of the TN Valley this evening, with a modest increase in WNW flow aloft expected as this occurs. As a ridge of high pressure noses further northeastward into the Arklamiss region early Monday morning, winds should become light/variable, and this may allow for the development of spotty freezing fog (especially across northwest AL).
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 40s across the region as the lower levels have recovered their sfc moisture with the radiational cooling. (Tonight through Monday night) Winds will continue to die down across the area into tonight as the responsible trough continues to eject eastward. The mid and upper level flow will become more zonal as we head into tomorrow with a weak mid-level ridge beginning to nudge into Texas tomorrow night. Temperatures will dip down into the 30s tonight across much of the region with portions of McMullen and Live Oak Counties seeing temperatures just below freezing for a few hours.
A quiet weather pattern is forecast to prevail this week as high pressure generally reigns supreme. As the week progresses, an upper level ridge will build into the Mississippi Valley as an upper low digs into the Great Basin and slowly migrates east into the southern Plains by week's end.
High pressure aloft was heading eastward during the early morning hours in advance of a developing low pressure system over the western states. However, the position of the high in relation to the developing low will draw a decent amount of high cloudiness from over the subtropics across Arizona.