Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile, the upper ridge, seen in H20 imagery from Hudson Bay to the Ozarks, will move over central Indiana tonight into Monday and an upper trough will move to the northern Great Lakes and central Plains, Monday. Combine the dry column beneath cirrus level broad and subsidence, courtesy of the upper ridge, and tranquil weather is in store through Monday and beyond. Good radiation cooling setup tonight and along with dew points in the lower 30s, overnight lows will mostly be in the upper 30s. Broad, weak split flow pattern aloft across the eastern US will gradually become dominated by upper-level ridging as we head into the new week. Ridging to our west will amplify significantly through tomorrow, and tilt northeastward over the Great Lakes.
This wave will weaken as it shears east- northeast and encounters the Great Lakes ridging. Strong ridging slowly shifts east from the Rockies into the Midwest through the first half of the week, as a cut-off low hangs out along the Gulf Coast.
Temperatures will run a bit cooler near Lake Michigan. High amplitude upper level ridging with the synoptic ridging getting well into the northern parts of central Canada. Lowered humidities with the sinking airmass, but will see moderation as the ridge ridging shifts out of the area. The ridge axis will move eastward through early Monday morning. A weak baggy trough in the wake of the ridging will only bring an increase in mid to high clouds over the region on Monday but will quickly move southeast through the area and central CONUS ridging originating from the southwest will begin to move into the region.
Look for broad and strong upper level ridging to continue to build over the Northern Plains. Forecast lows tonight are expected to be in the low to mid 20s east, to the low to mid 30s west. A warm front approaches from the west Monday night with another mild night where temperatures remain above freezing in many areas.
As an upper level trough moves eastward across southern Canada, a patchy area of mid level stratus is evident on satellite over the north central Red River Valley as of mid afternoon. With the upper level trough departing the region, a strengthening ridge aloft is expected to build into the Plains behind it. Otherwise, as the upper ridge axis becomes centered over the northern Plains on Monday, another quiet day is anticipated, with high temperatures in the 40s to 50s once again.
Mid- level high pressure rolls into the Four Corners into Monday as a very positively tilted trough drops nearly straight south through the Plains into East Texas by Monday Night. Low pressure develops along the coast, combining with abundant low level moisture and some instability aloft to increase rain chances from west to east Monday into Monday night.
After a morning of calm winds, light flow has begun to organize out of the northwest in response to an approaching cold front; currently draped south of Interstate-4. A few cumulus have tried to coalesce into a line south of the Lower Keys, however vertical development is somewhat limited with zero cape and weak lapse rates above the cloud base. Behind the front, high pressure will build over the mid-Atlantic seaboard and result in winds freshening tomorrow night.
Water vapor imagery shows a weak, positively tilted trough working through the forecast area now.
Trough of low pressure is moving into the eastern Dakotas and Nebraska this afternoon with mild southerly flow ahead of the system into Iowa. The low level jet weak to mostly non- existent though there is a plume of theta-e advection wrapping in from the southeast in advance of the front. Warmer temperatures will follow the passing trough as the western ridge amplifies and shifts east towards Iowa along with the attendant thermal ridge.
1130 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 Dry high pressure will set up over the region and then persist through the early to middle part of the week, with slowly warming daytime temperatures.
Dry and warmer weather is expected to continue through the first-half of the upcoming week, with occasional breezy winds and high clouds. Warmer and dry conditions have spread across Arizona as high pressure builds over the state. The warmer temperatures will continue to melt the above average snowpack in the higher elevations leading to increased flows in brooks, creeks, and streams draining these areas.
1200 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance A rapid transition to much warmer and quieter weather is underway. A deepening trough over the eastern Pacific will gradually shift into western NOAM the next several days, resulting in increased ridging downstream over the central and eastern CONUS. The ridge axis will cross the area mid-week, then shift off to the east as the western trough weakens and slowly progresses across the continent and into the area. The initial zonal flow followed by the development of the upper ridge across the area will result in temperatures warming to much above normal.
An upper level ridge in the southwestern US will continue to intensify, and will assist in redirecting the upper level trough to dig southward, with rain/storm potential gradually shifting southward through Sunday and into Monday. The upper level trough will begin shifting eastward on Monday, which additional precipitation chances will be possible throughout central and southeastern Oklahoma Monday afternoon into evening.
A sfc trof exists today across half of the FA. Have the highest confidence of storm coverage along and east of Highway 283. Isolated 80F readings will be possible across the lower elevation near the Oklahoma border.
Daytime highs so far have warmed up to the lower 60s and will reach the mid/upper 60s later this afternoon. High pressure will continue to build into the region allowing for cloud cover to further decrease overnight, allowing temps fall into the lower 40s.
Thus, despite an upper level trough digging into the lower Mississippi Valley during this time frame, conditions here will remain dry.
Much more pleasant temperatures are being seen area wide today with highs ranging from the lower 70s along the Nature Coast into the middle 80s further south. As high pressure builds to the north of the Sunshine State, cooler temperatures and an unsettled weather pattern are expected across the area through mid week. Slightly better chances for rain may come later in the week as models continue to suggest a weak low pressure system will develop in the norther Gulf of Mexico.
- Warmer and windier conditions expected mid-late week creating elevated fire weather concerns.
(This afternoon through Monday Night) Surface and building upper level ridging influences over mid state and much of eastern contiguous U. Lows tonight will only be a few degrees cooler than seasonal normal values ranging low to mid 40s, around 40 Upper Cumberland Region. Lows Monday night will exclusively span the low to mid 40s.
As this trough continues to dive southward Monday afternoon, weak surface convergence will develop along an axis extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Southern Plains.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Monday Night/ Cloud cover persists this afternoon across much of North and Central TX as we remain embedded within a light easterly flow in the low levels. As this initial weak disturbance spreads east, it'll amplify in response to upstream ridging and eventually develop into a closed low over the northwest Gulf later this week. In addition, a weak cold front will slide southward from Oklahoma during the day Monday.
339 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 High pressure is centered over the eastern Great Lakes today.
(Through Monday night) Trough of low pressure over waters will move away to the southeast Tonight, as strong high pressure builds from the north. The high will build further south toward the area during the day Monday through Monday night. Weak coastal troughs will develop in the onshore flow, which will help to enhance the winds, as well as provide convergence for shower development.
329 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 High pressure extending into the area will persist through most of the week. Ridge located northeast of the area will result in easterly winds which will become light overnight.
1213 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 A large area of high pressure extending from Southern Ontario east to the New England states will drift slowly south, becoming located across the Mid Atlantic Region and Ohio Valley by Monday morning. This weather feature will bring chilly and mainly sub-freezing early morning temperatures, abundant sunshine and milder daytime temperatures with dry air and min RH values in the 20 to 25 percent range this afternoon and again on Monday. The lowest RH values will be over the Middle Susquehanna Valley, along with the the Central and Northern Mountains.
Otherwise weak high pressure fills in tonight which should allow for light winds and mostly clear skies. Monday should prove to be a pleasant day as high pressure shifts east and a lighter south wind develops through the afternoon. Highs should mostly be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with some slightly cooler readings in areas with remaining snowpack.
154 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 High pressure over our region will drift south to the Carolinas during the next few days where it will act as a heat pump by circulating increasingly milder air into our region. as high pressure will move south across the Mid Atlantic region.
A warm front has nosed as far north as Watertown this morning and stretches back to the southwest. Ensembles still build in upper ridging more quickly than the deterministics west river. So, forecast highs are much warmer along and west of the Missouri, topping out in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Areas with bare ground will easily climb into the lower 70s on Monday across central SD with highs approaching 60 degrees in snow free areas in the east as ridging builds farther east.
108 PM MDT Sun Apr 9 2023 The warming trend will continue over the next few days as a broad ridge passes over the region.
The persistent cloud cover should provide enough insolation to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night, generally in the 50s. Overnight lows could fall into the upper 40s to near 50 degrees F in Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and portions of extreme Northern Louisiana where the low clouds clear out earlier.
122 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 The center of dry high pressure will set up over the region and persist through midweek, resulting in a slow warming trend.
141 PM MDT Sun Apr 9 2023 Ridge of high pressure will be in place the next couple days with our warm up continuing.
158 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 The cold air damming wedge will continue to erode as weak low pressure moves well offshore and drier air spreads in from the northeast. High pressure settles overhead late tonight through the middle of the week. Moisture will increase late in the week as a low pressure system moves northeast from the Gulf of Mexico leading to a chance of showers. CAD wedge continues to scour out as winds from H85-H7 become northeasterly in response to a low pressure system off the coast. Additionally, flow aloft is becoming more westerly to northwesterly as an upper trough moves through New England.
Some widely scattered showers and isolated storms may linger across southeast KS, especially early in the day before this trough translates southward away from the area late in the period. Another mild day is anticipated with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Satellite imagery this afternoon is depicting a broad ridge of high pressure over the Northern Rockies with a long fetch of Pacific moisture extending from the northwestern U. A low pressure circulation off the coast of Canada will continue to drive moisture transport into the Pacific Northwest as it drops southward over the next few days. Monday is still on track for warmer than normal temperatures, featuring a forecast for daytime highs in the upper 60s to low 70s over broad valleys of Montana such as the Bitterroot, Missoula, Mission, and Flathead Valleys. The Lower Salmon River region of Idaho will experience mid to upper 70s with a chance for 80 degrees. On Monday night, the Pacific low will begin to displace the ridge over the Northern Rockies. Rain will begin over north-central Idaho with snow levels at the highest peaks.
Dry conditions and a warming trend will persist over the next couple days under a ridge of high pressure situated over the western U. A more widespread area of the CWA will remain above freezing tonight with high temperatures tomorrow likely running at least five degrees warmer than those observed today. By Monday night, the majority of southeast Idaho will not drop below freezing. Flooding risk will continue to increase as we experience extended periods of above freezing temperatures (see Hydrology discussion below).
The benign weather will continue throughout the short term, with even warmer, potentially record-breaking, high temperatures expected.
(Tonight through Monday night) Water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough moving southeast through the southern high plains of west Texas while a secondary vorticity maximum was near the Four Corners region. But better chances for rain will occur on Monday as the mid level short wave trough moves into the region and interacts with a slightly unstable air mass in place.
Short wave trough exiting the area to the east today, with upper level ridge forecast to begin to build over the Rockies, especially on Monday. Overnight, expect clouds to clear, and with dry air/light winds, expect temps to fall to near or below freezing at most locations, warmest readings in the mid/upper 30s over the far sern plains. Surface winds on Monday should stay fairly light another day, as pressure gradient stays rather slack and mid-level flow remains constrained by building upper ridge.
1226 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 A large area of high pressure extending from Southern Ontario east to the New England states will drift slowly south, becoming located across the Mid Atlantic Region and Ohio Valley by Monday morning. The lowest RH values will be over the Middle Susquehanna Valley, along with the the Central and Northern Mountains.
With our warm start this morning, think most areas should rise into the low to mid 40s. Areas near these sites are quite a bit cooler so we didn't want to get too carried away. With a warmer start today, we should see the warmer temperatures spreading farther into central ND. Temperatures out west remain above freezing. An upper level ridge over Western CONUS will move over the Northern Rockies bringing very warm temperatures. This will cause temperatures this afternoon to warm up into the lower 40s out east to 60s out west. These warmer temperatures will continue to eat away the snow pack. Tonight temperatures are forecast to sit in the upper 20s in areas with snow pack while the southwest will remain above freezing.
Highs tomorrow will be in the lower and mid 70s, with low temperatures staying in the lower to mid 50s range north to the upper 50s to around 60 elsewhere.
With clear skies comes another chilly night on tap with majority of north and central Georgia dropping into the low to mid 40s, with some areas at the higher elevations potentially seeing the mid to upper 30s. Short-term guidance continues to prog dry northwesterly flow to overspread the area ahead of a building mid lvl ridge off to the west.
Patterson (Issued 428 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023) Today through Monday: High pressure will retreat east a bit today, allowing for a slightly tighter pressure gradient to move over western Wisconsin. Highs there will stop in the low 60s to upper 50s. Overnight, a weak trough will approach central WI and ultimately dissolve into the background pressure field. Similar quiet, but slightly warmer, conditions will continue Monday with highs stopping at or just short of 70.
301 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 High pressure is expected to bring dry weather through the work week. High pressure will remain in control through the period. Highs will climb into the 60s with plenty of sunshine and light winds with high pressure right overhead. Model soundings show very dry air in the lower atmosphere, allowing for dewpoints in the low 20s and RH values in the low 20s, but winds will remain below 10 mph, so not expecting fire weather concerns tomorrow. High pressure will remain in control as dry conditions continue through at least midweek.
323 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 Strong High pressure over the northeast states will allow quiet weather to persist.
256 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 High pressure is expected to bring dry weather through the work week. High pressure will remain in control through the period. Highs will climb into the 60s with plenty of sunshine and light winds with high pressure right overhead. Model soundings show very dry air in the lower atmosphere, allowing for dewpoints in the low 20s and RH values in the low 20s, but winds will remain below 10 mph, so not expecting fire weather concerns tomorrow. High pressure will remain in control as dry conditions continue through at least midweek.
Abundant sunshine under clear skies as high pressure centered over Lake Ontario dominates our weather today. Further south, the back end of a stalled front have started to finally pushed into the Tennessee Valley and away from the lower Ohio Valley. A light east-northeast breeze will start by mid to late morning with some gusts reaching between 17-23 mph amid steepening llvl lapse rates and a ribbon of slightly-enhanced 850-mb winds moving away from the high pressure center. Quiet and cool weather will continue to finish the weekend as high pressure keeps its influence over the Ohio Valley.
156 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023 A sunny day, with very high thin overcast in spots that's not blocking the sun.
1237 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023 (Today through Monday night) Thanks to ridging over the SErn CONUS, settled conditions will prevail thru Monday with Erly winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies.
(Today through Monday) Mid/upper level flow today and tonight becomes northwest Monday as an upper trough drops south over the Central Plains and into Texas. At the surface, broad high pressure roughly centered from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States to extend over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and East Texas through the short-term. As the energy and moderate jet streak associated with the upper trough drops into Texas later Monday the lift provided may be sufficient to produce a few showers. Winds to veer northeast to east and remain light due to the surface ridging north of the region, but this northeast wind will bring in a more mild and modified airmass. Lows tonight remain mild falling into the low to mid 60s.
1209 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper trough will make its way out of the Rockies and into the Plains today and tonight.
419 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 A large area of high pressure extending from Southern Ontario east to the New England states will drift slowly south, becoming located across the Mid Atlantic Region and Ohio Valley by Monday morning. The lowest RH values will be over the Middle Susquehanna Valley, along with the the Central and Northern Mountains.
The models show northerly flow aloft tonight and Monday on the decrease through the two periods as an upper ridge axis moves eastward towards the CWA tonight and into Colorado on Monday. The ridge is right on top of the CWA by Monday afternoon.
131 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 High pressure continues to be the primary weather influencer for the area. Abundant sunshine with easterly winds and temperatures rising into the lower to mid 60s. High pressure remains southeast of the Ohio Valley for the midweek while an upper level ridge centers over the Great Lakes.
Discussion: Quiet weather day today as light and dry winds out of the north combine with increasing mid level ridging moving over the region. Coldest temperatures are expected in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia where they should flirt with freezing again. Can't completely rule out seeing some isolated sub- freezing temperatures in the higher elevations of these counties, but the chance for frost appears to be more widespread tonight with the clear skies and mostly calm winds.
256 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 Weather will remain quiet tonight into tomorrow thanks to the passing of a short wave ridge across the Great Lakes and expanding upper ridge across the western and central US. At the sfc, high pressure over Lake Ontario will shift southward towards the Mid- Atlantic during the day tomorrow. This will help keep temperatures from falling to far and should be similar to last night with lows in the upper 30s/low 40s with just isolated protected areas dropping into the low 30s. As high pressure drifts by to the east and southeast tomorrow, winds will veer more from the east to the southeast and then south by tomorrow afternoon.
Mid-level heights will already be increasing on Monday as ridge building begins in earnest to the west.
124 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 High pressure is centered over the eastern Great Lakes today.
305 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023 (Issued 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2023) Tonight through Monday night: High pressure will continue to retreat to the east this afternoon. Temperatures have risen into the low to mid 60s across southern Wisconsin. As we head into the overnight hours, a weak trough will move through the state and continue to weaken overnight. There will be a chance for some showers to develop along the leading edge of this trough, but moisture will be limited and forcing will be weakening. Conditions on Monday will be slightly warmer and will remain dry. The slightly warmer temperatures may lead to a few locations reaching 70.
High pressure will dominate the area weather aloft.
Once again, potential will be there to see fog given the low-level moisture in place from snow melt. An even warmer air mass compared to this weekend begins moving into the region, with 925mb temps warming into the upper teens C by afternoon. Areas with little to no snow cover should be able to rise into the 70s, while temps stay much cooler over the snow field. There is a bit better mixing on Monday to perhaps mix down some of these warmer readings aloft. Southerly breezes remain in place Monday night within the mild air mass and we will likely remain above freezing across a good portion, if not most of the CWA.
247 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023 Temperatures will moderate through the week with high pressure remaining over the East Coast. Clouds have cleared out across the area, and temperatures are 5-15 degrees warmer than they were this time yesterday, although north- northeasterly wind gusts up to 25 mph have helped limit warming today. Skies will remain clear through the overnight hours, and the wind will lighten overnight as a high pressure center moves over southern Virginia. Went a touch warmer than the NBM 10th percentile, and these temperatures have prompted a frost advisory that is generally to the northwest of US-1. High pressure will then be overhead Monday night with strong radiational cooling. Again going on the cooler side of guidance for lows despite the moderating airmass, which yields mid to upper 30s and another possible frost in the coldest areas.
At the surface, a ridge of high pressure centered across New England will build southwestward in the lee of the Appalachian Mountains in the wake of the mid-level trough, effectively pushing a backdoor cold front west-northwestward across the CWFA later this evening/early Monday morning. Dewpoint temps will advectively cool into the 30s (lower 30s east and upper 30s west) by sunrise, but a light east-southeasterly wind should result in sufficient mixing to keep lows in the lower 40s, with perhaps some mid 40s near the AL-MS border and in the vicinity of larger water sources.