Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Key Messages: * Warmer than normal high temperatures continue into Monday. Upper ridging shifts east as a trough digs into the Plains. While the upper trough and embedded low will bring some mild CAA, H85 temps remain above zero through Monday. Clouds and rain along with cooler H85 temps on Monday should hold highs in the 40s for most locations. Good mixing will set up west river as winds shift to the northwest in the afternoon behind the low. High pressure over Montana will help establish the pressure gradient for north central to see gusts to 35 mph. Given the warm daytime temperatures and cloud cover overnight allowing temps to remain above freezing, this event is expected to be all rain.
A second round is expected to wrap around the upper low as it marches eastward through southern Kansas, bringing additional showers and storms mainly to north central Oklahoma late tonight into tomorrow morning. This will bring breezy north winds tomorrow and slightly cooler temperatures (highs in the 50s and 60s).
While there may be a short lull in the intensity of rainfall during the day Monday, another band of precipitation will form in the deformation area late Monday afternoon into the evening as the low ejects northeastward across Missouri.
For tonight, clouds will continue to increase, so temperatures should be warmer than last night. With temperatures being significantly warmer within the precipitating layer and surface temperatures above freezing, the general expectation is for primarily rain to be the dominant precipitation type.
A ridge based in the eastern Caribbean will likely remain firmly planted this week, resulting in the aforementioned front only modestly bleeding through the Keys, rather than blasting through.
1132 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 High pressure over the region will provide one more day of fair weather across central Illinois. Cloud cover will increase through the day as low pressure takes shape over the Great Plains.
(This evening through Monday) Drier and much breezier west winds were charging off the Caprock this afternoon on the heels of a Pacific cold front that stretched from near Lake Alan Henry to Memphis at 1 PM. These gusty downslope winds (gusting as high as 40 mph at the New Home West TX Mesonet) were helping fuel temps in the lower 70s in most areas, but changes are on the horizon thanks to a cold front poised to arrive Monday morning ahead of more seasonal temps.
1008 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2023 Longwave trof has been gradually approaching from the west and southwest with increasing clouds and light radar returns. STP A longwave trof over the western U. Precipitation will be truncated as moisture moves over the higher terrain, with downslope effects limiting moisture in the lower elevations east of the divide.
From synopsis, moderate northerly breezes this morning will diminish this afternoon and tonight as high pressure slides eastward across the eastern United States. As the high continues moving into the western North Atlantic Monday and Monday night, breezes will veer to the northeast to east and freshen.
Currently, long wave trough pattern across the Rockies into the Great Plains, with an embedded upper low over central Nebraska slowly meandering northward. Upper level clouds continue to stream northward from the low to our south, mainly remaining scattered but there are some areas of BKN ceilings now across the south. For Monday, northern stream S/WV advances east across southern Saskatchewan into northern ND, driving a cold front into our region. Cooler temperatures expected but still mild and above normal, with forecast highs in the 40s.
Drier and warmer conditions return by the middle of the week. A fast-moving s/wv trough, currently located at the far southwestern corner of Utah, will dive through northern Arizona today and into New Mexico this evening. This is not a particularly strong trough, but what makes it interesting is the unusually moist and unstable airmass ahead of the trough axis, as well as the cold air behind the frontal passage. Models are handling this next potential trough quite different, so not much confidence at this time.
1128 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 (Today through Monday) Dry high pressure will remain over the area through the rest of the weekend. After a chilly start in the low to mid 30s, temps will warm nicely into the lower 60s under mostly sunny skies. For tonight, the high pressure center will move off to the east.
1049 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 - Dry and slightly warmer today with plenty of sunshine.
1038 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2023 High pressure remains over the Ohio Valley today and will move east of the region Sunday night into Monday.
This is in response to a longwave trof moving into the region. Expect light rain and snow showers to push into western areas late this afternoon, spreading south and east into this evening and overnight, as energy form the trof dives south into the southern Great Basin. Monday will see above normal temperatures continuing, although they will be a bit cooler than Sunday, under mostly sunny skies.
An upper level ridge is expected to develop to start the week, bringing drier conditions and warmer daytime temperatures. A cold front has passed through the area, with gusty west winds and showers persisting into this morning.
119 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 - Light rain and drizzle are likely late tonight and Monday along with cooler and windy weather.
Went toward the lower side of guidance which lines up well with the mav (gfs mos) with lows ranging from the mid teens to low 20s, expect mid 20s along the immediate lakeshores.
(This afternoon through Monday) A drier and more stable airmass will build over the region today into Monday as a longwave mid-level trough axis moves eastward from the Bahamas into the Atlantic. The only area with the potential for rain today will be the Atlantic waters due to the available shallow moisture and proximity to the departing trough. As the trough exits and drier air arrives, those chances will further diminish and erode for Monday. Temperatures will remain milder with highs in the lower 80s.
If cloud cover moves in faster than currently forecast, low temperatures and dewpoints could stay a few degrees warmer, which would help downplay any potential impacts from isolated icy spots on roads. Outside of the cool temperatures and isolated frost deposition, quiet conditions will continue to dominate the region under high pressure. As mentioned above, cloud cover will be on the increase overnight, which will make for a slightly cooler Monday. Highs tomorrow will range from the lower to middle 40s.
Dewpoints have been increased through tomorrow afternoon as the warm front moves through the area the moisture axis will near the I-20 corridor. High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will remain in control of the weather across the forecast area for much of today.
Radar and surface observations as of 10AM MST indicate precipitation is starting to taper off, with mostly dry conditions across southeast Oregon and the Lower Treasure Valley. Precipitation will continue through late this morning before tapering off and becoming confined to the mountains of southwest Idaho this afternoon as the trough axis moves through, with only isolated showers elsewhere. Winds have increased across the area behind a cold front, with gusty winds persisting through the day today. Temperatures today will average around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, but the wind will make it feel even colder. Mainly VFR to MVFR, with low cloud and widespread rain and snow this morning as a cold front crosses the region.
With the cloud cover tonight, low temperatures will be milder compared to the last few mornings, dipping to the upper 30s north to the lower 40s south. The latest WPC QPF has increased, on the high-end, with this forecast package. It still appears that areas around Independence, IA may see around a tenth of an inch, but the higher amounts continue to be expected south and east of the Quad Cities.
These conditions will last through the rest of the day, but to our west, a closed upper low is developing as the trough it is embedded in drops south over the Rockies and Plains. The low itself is centered near the Plains.
1135 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Key Messages: 1) Sunny today with highs in the 40s 2) A cold front slides across the Northland beginning Monday night.
Upper level clouds will continue to stream north ahead of an area of upper level low pressure currently over central Nebraska. Currently an upper level low sits over Nebraska with a broad trough to the west and south of it. This low system will increase clouds today, mainly higher level clouds.
920 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 (Issued 920 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023) The forecast remains on track, with a chilly morning giving way to high temperatures in the lower to mid-50s, with mid to high level clouds pressing into the region late this afternoon. Clear skies early will give way to increasing mid and high level clouds by mid afternoon, with winds turning easterly as high pressure over Ontario starts to move east and low pressure develops in the High Plains in association with an upper level trough.
It should be stressed however that there remains some uncertainty as temperatures are in the lower 40s this morning with rain continuing to fall.
At least a limited severe threat will also continue late tonight into Monday morning across southeast Oklahoma as a warm front tries to lift north near the Red River. Precipitation chances will remain high through the day, with light rain ending from west to east Monday night as the main mid level trough axis swings through.
-Enriquez MORNING DISCUSSION: Expect a relatively pleasant and mild Sunday but by the afternoon and evening hours a dry cold front will move across Montana. Cooler air will move in but not a drastic drop with highs still remaining on the warm end of mid November averages.
100 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2023 High pressure remains over the Ohio Valley today and will move east of the region Sunday night into Monday.
Tonight will be a few degrees cooler than the previous night, the big difference will be in daytime highs on Monday as temperatures for most will be in the low to mid 60s. Northerly winds behind tomorrow morning's cold front hold through the end of the short term forecast and mark the advection of cold air.
50 to 1 inch will be seen areawide with the highest amounts in eastern and southeast Illinois. Temperatures turn cooler late week onward.
543 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) The main headline through the short-term period is the arrival of a cold front resulting in much cooler and breezy conditions across the area.
Some travel impacts expected for the high country and possibly Palmer Divide area.
(This evening through Monday night) A broad upper-level trough is in place across much of the Rockies and Intermountain West with a seasonably strong upper-level jet streak, currently located in the vicinity of eastern Arizona/western New Mexico, will move into western Texas today and tonight. A cold front will move through the Panhandles by later tonight and there is the potential for some rain showers to develop along and possibly behind the cold front in the southern Texas Panhandle. Winds will remain breezy through the night behind the cold front.
The area will then be under a ridge of high pressure early to mid week for a period of quieter weather conditions. A low pressure system drops in from the north on Thanksgiving Day bringing a few showers to eastern Lincoln and northern Mohave counties along with cooler temperatures area wide late in the week. Winds have subsided slightly with the setting sun, but guidance suggests another uptick in winds tonight as this trough digs south and high pressure builds to our north.
Drier and warmer conditions return by the middle of the week. A fast-moving s/wv trough, currently located between Page and the Grand Canyon, will move into New Mexico this evening. The cold front has already driven through most of the CWA, only the southeast corner still to go. Models are handling this next potential trough quite different, so not much confidence at this time.
122 PM PST Sun Nov 19 2023 Brisk northerly winds continue into early this evening following yesterday's cold front. Ridgetop winds will remain gusty through early Monday morning, tapering off through the remainder of the day.
Water vapor imagery currently shows one upper impulse lifting across northeast Nebraska with strong jet energy diving into the upper trough across the Great Basin into the Desert Southwest. At the surface, low pressure is situated over the OK Panhandle with decent return flow across Central/Eastern KS along with Eastern OK. For Thu, there is good model agreement that a deep upper low will sink south across Manitoba and Southern Ontario. Concerns: 1) IFR & LIFR conditions 2) Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms 3) Breezy SE winds this afternoon A low pressure system continues to slowly track east.
A few light mountain showers possible by mid-week, Otherwise, dry warmer weather expected through the week. Upper level ridging begins to dominate the forecast pattern as it builds into the region.
601 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 As an upper low continues to wobble east northeast near the Nebraska/South Dakota border, clouds continue to stream across North Dakota from south to north. Currently, long wave trough pattern across the Rockies into the Great Plains, with an embedded upper low over central Nebraska slowly meandering northward. Upper level clouds continue to stream northward from the low to our south, mainly remaining scattered but there are some areas of BKN ceilings now across the south. For Monday, northern stream S/WV advances east across southern Saskatchewan into northern ND, driving a cold front into our region. Cooler temperatures expected but still mild and above normal, with forecast highs in the 40s.
The area will then be under a ridge of high pressure early to mid week for a period of quieter weather conditions. A low pressure system drops in from the north on Thanksgiving Day bringing a few showers to eastern Lincoln and northern Mohave counties along with cooler temperatures area wide late in the week. High temperatures on Monday should be similar or a little cooler than today.
631 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2023 Dry conditions continue into tonight as high pressure builds into the area.
(Tonight through Monday night) The main headline through the short-term period is the arrival of a cold front resulting in much cooler and breezy conditions across the area.
628 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2023 Aviation - Quiet Weather Tonight and Monday High pressure moves from the Great Lakes region tonight into Quebec by Monday evening. The high and the dry outflow from the high will keep us precipitation free both tonight and on Monday.
- Light rain and drizzle are likely late tonight and Monday along with cooler and windy weather.
623 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2023 (This afternoon through Monday) A drier and more stable airmass will build over the region today into Monday as a longwave mid-level trough axis moves eastward from the Bahamas into the Atlantic. The only area with the potential for rain today will be the Atlantic waters due to the available shallow moisture and proximity to the departing trough. As the trough exits and drier air arrives, those chances will further diminish and erode for Monday. Temperatures will remain milder with highs in the lower 80s.
With overnight lows dropping well below freezing, travel impacts will be likely which was also taken into consideration for the advisory issuance. Skies should be mostly clear however with high pressure building over the area.
Troughing moving across the Mississippi Valley tomorrow helps a short wave with its axis over our area creating heightfalls of near 5-7dams in the mid levels.
Some light rain/sprinkle activity will spread northeast thru the area overnight into early Monday from the southern upper low in the southern Plains and then chances for showers with front moving southeast from Canada Monday aftn/eve. For tonight, clouds will continue to increase, so temperatures should be warmer than last night. With temperatures being significantly warmer within the precipitating layer and surface temperatures above freezing, the general expectation is for primarily rain to be the dominant precipitation type.
536 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 (This evening through Monday) Drier and much breezier west winds were charging off the Caprock this afternoon on the heels of a Pacific cold front that stretched from near Lake Alan Henry to Memphis at 1 PM. These gusty downslope winds (gusting as high as 40 mph at the New Home West TX Mesonet) were helping fuel temps in the lower 70s in most areas, but changes are on the horizon thanks to a cold front poised to arrive Monday morning ahead of more seasonal temps.
Water vapor imagery currently shows one upper impulse lifting across northeast Nebraska with strong jet energy diving into the upper trough across the Great Basin into the Desert Southwest. At the surface, low pressure is situated over the OK Panhandle with decent return flow across Central/Eastern KS along with Eastern OK. For Thu, there is good model agreement that a deep upper low will sink south across Manitoba and Southern Ontario.
As an upper low continues to wobble east northeast near the Nebraska/South Dakota border, clouds continue to stream across North Dakota from south to north. Currently, long wave trough pattern across the Rockies into the Great Plains, with an embedded upper low over central Nebraska slowly meandering northward. Upper level clouds continue to stream northward from the low to our south, mainly remaining scattered but there are some areas of BKN ceilings now across the south. For Monday, northern stream S/WV advances east across southern Saskatchewan into northern ND, driving a cold front into our region. Cooler temperatures expected but still mild and above normal, with forecast highs in the 40s.
Large scale subsidence will move into the area by mid-morning as the short wave trough axis passes to the southeast. An upper level jet streak on the order of 150kt will move to the east as the short wave trough rotates around the larger closed low in the Central Plains. Otherwise, the only lift we will see will be from frontogenetical forcing as the front/trough plows through the region this morning.
Upper low well to our south but mid level moisture spreading north and areas of light rain/sprinkles slowly spreading north from southeast and south central ND into central ND. Some light rain/sprinkle activity will spread northeast thru the area overnight into early Monday from the southern upper low in the southern Plains and then chances for showers with front moving southeast from Canada Monday aftn/eve. For tonight, clouds will continue to increase, so temperatures should be warmer than last night. With temperatures being significantly warmer within the precipitating layer and surface temperatures above freezing, the general expectation is for primarily rain to be the dominant precipitation type.
Precipitation chances will remain high through the day, with light rain ending from west to east Monday night as the main mid level trough axis swings through.
1032 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 (This evening through Monday night) A broad upper-level trough is in place across much of the Rockies and Intermountain West with a seasonably strong upper-level jet streak, currently located in the vicinity of eastern Arizona/western New Mexico, will move into western Texas today and tonight. A cold front will move through the Panhandles by later tonight and there is the potential for some rain showers to develop along and possibly behind the cold front in the southern Texas Panhandle. Winds will remain breezy through the night behind the cold front.
Given the proximity of the upper low, low clouds and occasional drizzle are expected much of the day.
Water vapor imagery reveals a broad trough digging eastward, with it's axis along the western high plains. Several embedded short wave troughs have rounded the base, with the first lifting north out of Nebraska into the eastern Dakotas, which supported the earlier rounds of rainfall across the region Sunday afternoon. A second short wave trough is lifting currently out of northeastern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas. Generally, still anticipate a bit of a lull in rainfall through mid to late morning, before a final round late afternoon through the evening as the H500 trough wraps up and begins to lift northeast out of the region through midnight.
Temperatures will be cool overnight, ranging from the low/mid 40s across the northeast to around 50 in Northeast Louisiana. Troughing moving across the Mississippi Valley tomorrow helps a short wave with its axis over our area creating heightfalls of near 5-7dams in the mid levels.
Look for increasing easterly winds as low pressure approaches from the Plains.
1223 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2023 Aviation - Quiet Weather Tonight and Monday High pressure moves from the Great Lakes region tonight into Quebec by Monday evening. The high and the dry outflow from the high will keep us precipitation free both tonight and on Monday.
1245 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2023 Dry conditions continue into tonight as high pressure builds into the area.
1045 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 (This evening through Monday) Drier and much breezier west winds were charging off the Caprock this afternoon on the heels of a Pacific cold front that stretched from near Lake Alan Henry to Memphis at 1 PM. These gusty downslope winds (gusting as high as 40 mph at the New Home West TX Mesonet) were helping fuel temps in the lower 70s in most areas, but changes are on the horizon thanks to a cold front poised to arrive Monday morning ahead of more seasonal temps.
Large upper low is in the process of phasing currently over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, which will be the focus for the short-term period. The lower end of that range can be seen in our northwest, with accumulation increasing the closer we get to the river.
Temperatures around the area are in the low to mid 40s.
The radar trends across the lower Snake Plain show some drier air working in from the northwest. With overnight lows dropping well below freezing, travel impacts will be likely which was also taken into consideration for the advisory issuance. Skies should be mostly clear however with high pressure building over the area.
Additional thunderstorms will spread into southeast Oklahoma toward daybreak and into the daylight hours today in response to a warm front, currently stretching from southwest Oklahoma into North Texas, lifting into the area. A cold front will begin to move into the area around midday, with winds becoming gusty from the north and northwest and a notable decrease in temperatures and low level moisture. The thunderstorm threat will shift eastward along with the push of the cold front, although showers will persist due to wraparound moisture associated with the upper level vort max. (Tonight through Sunday) The aforementioned cold front will continue to push through the remainder of the forecast area through the evening hours, with the threat for thunderstorms likely ending mid evening.
Expect temperatures to settle in the lower 70s with dew points pushing towards 70.
1237 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2023 (This afternoon through Monday) A drier and more stable airmass will build over the region today into Monday as a longwave mid-level trough axis moves eastward from the Bahamas into the Atlantic. The only area with the potential for rain today will be the Atlantic waters due to the available shallow moisture and proximity to the departing trough. As the trough exits and drier air arrives, those chances will further diminish and erode for Monday. Temperatures will remain milder with highs in the lower 80s.
Water vapor imagery reveals a broad trough digging eastward, with it's axis along the western high plains.