Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These values combine with the cooler 500mb temperatures seen, would be enough to support hail growth up to an inch and half. Regardless, chances and opportunities should begin to dwindle the further we get into Sunday as the 500mb high pressure center starts to shift more eastward. As for Sunday itself, look for much drier weather for the day with afternoon high temperatures quickly returning back to the high 90s.
754 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Weak high pressure builds into Sunday.
Slightly drier air will continue to advect in overnight, which will send dewpoints into the lower 60s and 50s tomorrow after daytime mixing ensues. -Stalley Previous Discussion: /This Afternoon through Sunday Night/ After multiple days of triple digit heat, we'll finally see a "cool" day today behind a cold front that has now pushed through Central Texas. Temperatures across the region are in the mid 80s which is about 10 degrees cooler than the last several days. Mostly sunny skies and a persistent north wind will prevail through the rest of the afternoon with highs expected to climb into the low to mid 90s. The center of the mid level ridge axis will creep ever closer on Sunday allowing high temperatures to climb by about 5 degrees over today's highs.
1016 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Weak high pressure builds across the area through Sunday.
200 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Upper ridge axis has slide into western Montana early Sunday morning. The upper ridge will build a little more into the northern Rockies today, with the ridge axis sliding ever so slowly east toward our western zones.
Noticeably cooler and less muggy conditions are expected around sunrise, especially across the north. It will feel cooler tomorrow morning across the northern half of the area where lows will be in the mid to upper 60s. An upper-level trough axis begins to slowly pass over the Deep South tomorrow which will usher in a large presence of dry air aloft as we enter a period of less active weather.
The upper high currently centered just to the west of the Four Corners will begin pushing eastward today and will help to inhibit most precip chances. Overnight lows will also be slightly warmer than previous nights and will be in the low to mid 70s.
407 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 High pressure will build over the area then slide off the coast during today.
Higher dewpoints and a bit more of a south wind overnight will keep temperatures warmer tonight, with most locations in the 70s for tonight lows.
409 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Weak high pressure remains in place today.
1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) A long wave trough is set up over the eastern US and we will see some weak short waves push over the area today and tonight. Not much of a change in the pattern for tomorrow as the long wave trough starts to push east.
Highs today will be near average in the low to mid 90s, and above average for the foreseeable future.
Most of the area will be dry today but an isolated shower or storm is possible in the higher terrain. Some erosion of this inversion may take place this afternoon especially along the higher terrain areas of the East Tennessee mountains, and southwest Virginia. These areas will, as a result, have the highest PoPs this afternoon.
Watch out for rapidly changing visibilities if you are out and about! - Temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s this week.
1137 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) Upper level ridging generally centered around the Four Corners and troffiness across the eastern part of the country will keep us in a n/nw flow aloft.
1233 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 (This evening through Sunday) The cold front is currently situated just to our south. Temperatures today are cooler this afternoon behind the front, with Abilene and San Angelo roughly 5 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. The ridge to our west will start to move east toward our area. This will lead to warmer temperatures, with our highs back up into the 100s for much of the area.
Northern Michigan remains in a persistent longwave pattern, with a strongly amplified ridge over the western CONUS and an upper low meandering around Hudson Bay, with numerous weak impulses rippling through the mean flow into general broad troffing over the eastern CONUS. A moist airmass in combination with weak troughing, disturbances moving through the flow and diurnal heating all add up to chances for showers and thunderstorms (especially in the afternoon and evening hours).
Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy with lows in the lower 60s along with light to calm winds.
358 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 High pressure will build over the area then slide off the coast during today.
144 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 High pressure will drift east across the Commonwealth this weekend, before settling south toward the Delmarva region by Sunday night. This high pressure system will give the area a much needed break from the stormy weather and a nice weekend.
410 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Weak high pressure will remain across the region through today.
Weak low- level convergence along the southeastern ridges may also foster some isolated activity.
Model soundings suggest afternoon highs will peak into the low 80s. This will support clearing skies and allow nighttime mins to dip down in the low 60s, with a few 50s possible in low lying areas outside the metro area.
Stronger low-level warm advection will result in a warmer afternoon with a bit more day over day instability perhaps closer to 2000j/kg of mlcape. The challenge is how far west across the area as slightly warmer temperatures aloft west of the I-135 may limit or cap convective development given the weak forcing.
Today will be slightly warmer thanks to southwest flow at the sfc, though still pleasant with highs in the mid to upper 80s. We're in continued northwest flow aloft with the main trof axis just to our east and a high pressure ridge over the SW CONUS. Tomorrow we will see height rises aloft as the ridge pushes east over the Plains. This will make it warmer again tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and mainly dry.
1115 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure will drift east across the Commonwealth this weekend, before settling south toward the Delmarva region by Sunday night. This high pressure system will give the area a much needed break from the stormy weather and a nice weekend.
148 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023 07z surface analysis had low over eastern MT with trough into central WY and northeast SD. Upper ridge over the southwest CONUS the main concern this forecast. Today/tonight, upper ridge continues to build into CWA with slowly rising heights. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer than yesterday per 800-600mb warm air advection.
1225 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) A weak front has moved through the area and brought slightly cooler temperatures. High dewpoints in the low 60s have advected in behind the front all the way to the Guadalupe Mountains and the combination of afternoon heating, higher elevations, and moist air should cause at least some isolated afternoon storms to form mainly in western Eddy and Culberson counties but also possibly stretching east into Lea County. Subsidence increases Sunday eliminating rain chances for all but the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis mountains where isolated storms may form with peak heating.
Steady warming in the low to mid levels will be the rule into the middle of the week as the southwest CONUS upper high builds northeast.
After this morning, though, more warm air moves in from the west under the building ridge leaving a strong cap by afternoon with H85 temps climbing to +26C across central SD.
140 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Weak high pressure builds across the area through Sunday.
As this upper trough continue to progress across the area early this morning, should see a continuation of at least some showers and a few thunderstorms across our southeastern CWA. Trough axis looks to clear southeast CWA by mid morning which should bring the threat of precip an end (at least temporarily). Trough axis should be through the area, though SREF suggests another weak wave over SD could be approaching the mid-MS valley by 00z.
There is a non-zero chance for isolated diurnal convection this afternoon north and west of PGH and over the higher terrain, but the vast majority of the region will observe dry conditions today.
157 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Slightly cooler with hot and dry weather persisting into early this week with areas of Moderate HeatRisk. Cooler by mid week with near seasonal normal temperatures expected. High pressure will remain over the west but weaken slightly today. A trough of low pressure will move from the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest early this week.
If these can tap the higher dew points before they mix out, then they could tap CAPE values of 1500 J/kg or a little better. Upper high shifts eastward into western CO for Sunday, bringing warming temperatures and lighter flow aloft to southern CO. Some brief light to moderate rainfall and lightning along with local gusts up to 50 mph near the high based convection will be the primary risks. Otherwise, temperatures will climb back up to around 100 across the southeast plains with 80s and lower 90s across the valleys and lower mountain communities, and 60s and 70s across the higher terrain.
Broad mid level trof remains over the eastern CONUS today. Temperatures look to be a little closer to normal - topping out in the lower and middle 80s. Skies will become mostly clear overnight with lows in the lower and middle 60s.
1140 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure remained centered over the border of southwest Utah and northwest Arizona this afternoon resulting in mostly dry northerly flow over the forecast area. One of the lows anchoring the blocked pattern is progged to shift to the coast of the Pacific Northwest Sunday forcing the high center eastward over the Four Corners. Expect highs in the 90s and low 100's across the lower valleys, mid 70s and 80s in the mountains and 60s above treeline on Sunday afternoon.
1110 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 A quiet night is in store for the Mid-South as high pressure continues to build over the region.
This will bring cooler temperatures with clouds and some spotty showers.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridge centered near the Four Corners will begin to nudge eastward into west Texas today. Temperatures this afternoon will be several degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday in the wake of the cold front.
537 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Moisture continues to rotate around the center of high pressure anchored over the region this morning. Circulation of the high is pulling what moisture it can into the Great Basin with a little help from the Pacific. A few showers can be seen on satellite across northern Utah with some clouds spilling over the front of the ridge into the Uintah Basin this morning. Satellite water vapor is showing sharp contrast in the low level moisture north of a line from the Four Corners to southeast Wyoming. The ridge will build east today and thus improve moisture supplies over the West Slope by midday Sunday.
Bonnette Previous Discussion: /Sunday and Monday/ Yesterday's cold front has been a welcome reprieve from the oppressive heat we've experienced the past couple weeks. A high pressure center will move into East Texas this evening and start to draw warm, moist air north. This will result in a warming trend Sunday night into Monday with both overnight lows and daytime highs a few degrees warmer than Sunday's values. A high pressure dome currently centered around the Four Corners region will slowly shift eastward through the next few days.
After this morning, though, more warm air moves in from the west under the building ridge leaving a strong cap by afternoon with H85 temps climbing to +26C across central SD. Sfc temperatures will be hot and above normal by 10 to 15 degrees under the upper ridge today and Monday.
410 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2023 High pressure aloft over the Arizona will transport monsoonal moisture into southern California through Monday for occasional high clouds.
The broader synoptic pattern still places SE Texas on the peripheral of a mid to upper level ridge over the SW CONUS/Four Corners. While this ridge is expected to gradually drift eastward again, weak impulses passing overhead and 1. Interactions between the sea/bay breeze and the weak frontal boundary currently draped across SE Texas should provide the highest rain chances this afternoon.
741 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Weak low pressure will lift across the area tonight, with a front remaining stalled near the area through early week. High pressure establishes itself over the region by mid to late week.
The question that remains is will the elevated moisture advection into the region be enough? For now, will keep PoPs on the lower end of guidance as certainty is still low.
Post frontal air will remain in place today, with lower dewpoints today and cooler temperatures. Granted we will still see high temperatures across the region in the 90s, with the lower dewpoints, heat index values will remain lower which will keep us out of Heat Advisory criteria. Temperatures on Monday will also be somewhat "lower" than what they have been, but will be "warmer" than what we see today.
More cooling into the mid and late week and a trough patten deepens. As the new troughing pattern begins to deepen for the west coast, things will continue to cool into Monday.
Meanwhile, a separate area of showers and thunderstorms has developed along the nose of the low level jet feeding into the baroclinic zone from northeast Montana into northwest North Dakota. Strengthening of the western ridge will push rising heights into the region today, allowing for warmer high temperatures in the 90s across the western half of the state. A warmer night is expected, with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
609 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) Sfc ridging will remain in place across much of the area through the period while H500 ridging across the Four Corners begins to build east by Monday.
On the broad scale, trough over the Hudson Bay remains with large upper level ridge across the western US. Clockwise flow around the ridge and counter-clockwise flow around the low in Canada leads to northwest flow aloft across the central US. With the nose of the low level jet ending in northern Missouri/ southern Iowa, ample mass convergence could lead to additional thunderstorms though the cap appears to be more significant.
623 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge centered near the Four Corners will begin to nudge eastward into west Texas today. Temperatures this afternoon will be several degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday in the wake of the cold front.
653 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 A ridge of high pressure will slide east across the region today, before settling south toward the Delmarva region by tonight. Significant height rises aloft and a low amplitude upper level ridge will likely develop over the region later in the upcoming week.
Skies will become mostly clear overnight with lows in the lower and middle 60s. On Monday evening, broad troughing will still be in place across the eastern half of the CONUS, although the axis of this trough will be shifting eastward with time.
Expect hot temperatures to continue into Monday as a strong high pressure system remains dominant over western Montana and central Idaho. The upper level ridge of high pressure begins to break down on Monday.
Today will be an active day, as the 10Z XMR sounding shows temps at 500 mb 2 degrees cooler than this time yesterday (-8. Air temps will range from the low 90s north of I-4, mid to upper 90s for areas south.
501 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 A ridge of high pressure will slide east across the region today, before settling south toward the Delmarva region by tonight. Significant height rises aloft and a low amplitude upper level ridge will likely develop over the region later in the upcoming week.
949 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 High pressure will build over the area then slide off the coast during today. An upper trough will then approach and swing into and across the region late this afternoon through Monday night, triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms.
555 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Warmer and more humid today with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Prolonged Heat Spell: A seasonably strong 500-mb heat ridge, currently centered over the Four Corners region, seems poised to expand eastward this week as upper-level troughing carves into British Columbia/PNW.
1014 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 A ridge of high pressure will slide east across the region later today, before settling south toward the Delmarva region by tonight. Significant height rises aloft and a low amplitude upper level ridge will likely develop over the region later in the upcoming week.
518 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Upper level high centered over the Great Basin will drift eastward over the Central Rockies today. With LCL a little over 10,000 feet, the high based convection will produce gusty outflow winds.
946 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Weak low pressure will lift across the area tonight, with a front remaining stalled near the area through early week. High pressure establishes itself over the region by mid to late week.
This front will meander across the southern counties for the next 18 to 24 hours before the low finally pulls to the east and the front clears. A cool night on tap tonight with some patchy fog once again, especially near bodies of water that will be much warmer than the surrounding air. Looking for a dry Monday with a return to the upper 80s to low 90s as high pressure will be over the region.
-Drier and cooler conditions anticipated on Monday. The forecast area remains situated at the base of a large longwave trough that encompasses much of the eastern CONUS. As this feature moves eastward, drier air will continue to filter into the region resulting in slightly cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints across northwest GA.
519 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Weak low pressure will lift across the area tonight, with a front remaining stalled near the area through early week. High pressure establishes itself over the region by mid to late week.
604 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 (Today through Monday afternoon) Upper level ridge expands and shifts slightly eastward from its position over the Four Corners today. Lows on Monday morning will be in the low to mid 70s for most with spots in the higher elevations dipping into the 60s. With a strengthening ridge, temperatures will trend slightly warmer for Monday afternoon with most areas in the low 100s and the higher elevations topping out in the mid to upper 90s.
The 12Z FL RAOBs sampled rising low-level heights as the subtropical ridge builds west. High pressure over the Florida Keys and South Florida will promote light to gentle breezes and nil rain chances.
337 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Upper level high centered over the Great Basin will drift eastward over the Central Rockies today. With LCL a little over 10,000 feet, the high based convection will produce gusty outflow winds.
The EC/Canadian/GFS continue to have the large upper level high situated over the desert SW. The high over the four corners will be the driver of the two upper level lows situated over the northern half of North America. The low situated over Hudson Bay will continue to dominate the weather over the Great Lakes through mid week.
The long fetch trough over the east will be shoved eastward by the strengthening high over the four corners. The high will be a bit closer to the area tomorrow so no precipitation is expected. Northerly winds today will keep the RH on the lower side. (Monday Night through next Sunday) The ridge builds through most of the work week and with southerly flow the RH values will rise and it will become more sticky.
Model soundings suggest afternoon highs will peak into the low 80s. This will support clearing skies and allow nighttime mins to dip down in the low 60s, with a few 50s possible in low lying areas outside the metro area. Prevailing westerly flow will support some weak low level warm air advection on Monday, warranting forecasts highs mainly in the low to mid 80s. This will occur as the large ridge across the swrn US expands into the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valleys during the course of the week. The result will be a warmer and more humid airmass advecting into Se Mi.
High pressure will continue to bring hot conditions to Arizona through early week. The center of the high will move east by mid week with slightly lower high temperatures. High pressure is centered over south-central Utah this morning and will shift eastward to the Four Corners area tonight.
As high pressure aloft builds in from the west, temperatures will warm a few degrees below normal by Monday, and will warm a few degrees further through late week.
409 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Warmer and more humid today with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Prolonged Heat Spell: A seasonably strong 500-mb heat ridge, currently centered over the Four Corners region, seems poised to expand eastward this week as upper-level troughing carves into British Columbia/PNW.
Yesterday's triple digit temperatures quickly cooled under clear skies into the low 60s and upper 50s overnight. A deep trough aloft will gradually begin to push high pressure east, resulting in gradual cooling today through early this week. Near average highs will return by Monday with interior valleys in the low 90s. Alongside cooler air, the trough will bring instability aloft. The low clouds and fog should burn off quickly by mid morning with daytime heating and mixing away from the coast. North of Cape Mendocino, northerlies will diminish today as a trough extending southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska disrupts the pressure gradient.
Based on latest guidance reduced coverage of showers/storms this afternoon to isolated, primarily confined to near the higher terrain. Upper trough over eastern U.
Broad mid level trof remains over the eastern CONUS today. Temperatures look to be a little closer to normal - topping out in the lower and middle 80s. Skies will become mostly clear overnight with lows in the lower and middle 60s. On Monday evening, broad troughing will still be in place across the eastern half of the CONUS, although the axis of this trough will be shifting eastward with time.
450 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023 07z surface analysis had low over eastern MT with trough into central WY and northeast SD. Upper ridge over the southwest CONUS the main concern this forecast. Today/tonight, upper ridge continues to build into CWA with slowly rising heights. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer than yesterday per 800-600mb warm air advection.
This morning, fog has been forming in the high dew point air and generally appears to be forming best under the clearest skies though also where rain occurred yesterday.
Lows tonight are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s, with highs on Monday in the low to mid 90s.
358 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Upper level ridging will be the primary driver through the start of the week bringing well above normal temperatures to the region.
510 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Moisture continues to rotate around the center of high pressure anchored over the region this morning. Circulation of the high is pulling what moisture it can into the Great Basin with a little help from the Pacific. A few showers can be seen on satellite across northern Utah with some clouds spilling over the front of the ridge into the Uintah Basin this morning. Satellite water vapor is showing sharp contrast in the low level moisture north of a line from the Four Corners to southeast Wyoming. The ridge will build east today and thus improve moisture supplies over the West Slope by midday Sunday.
High pressure in the Desert Southwest moves eastward tomorrow bringing cooler conditions for this week. Today and Monday One more day of above-normal summertime heat is expected today before the high pressure in the Desert Southwest moves eastward. Clockwise flow around the high pressure will bring continued hot air to Central and Northern Nevada today. Monday, the high pressure will move eastward and as trof begins to push inland.