Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Latest WV imagery shows the upper low progged to return rain to the region currently over Minnesota. Temperature maxima in these areas may be constrained to near- normal values as greater cloud cover limits heating, while areas to the east will be several degrees warmer in a bit more sunshine. Latest guidance progs the front beginning to enter eastern OH zones shortly after midnight, and east of the ridges by early afternoon. Temperatures will fall to slightly below normal on Saturday in the wake of the cold front.
High pressure will bring warm temperatures to inland areas through mid week, with slight cooling expected thereafter. (Today and tonight) A stout upper anticyclone will center near Lake Tahoe as upper troughing locates along the Pacific Northwest coast. The trough will be maintained by an upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska. Lows tonight will be seasonal and generally in the lower to mid 50s.
An upper low was over southern Manitoba, tracking east-southeast. A cold front was located from southwest Kansas to north-central Iowa with little convergence along it. Some scattered showers are possible through the TAF period as a cold front slowly moves south, but confidence is too low to mention anything more than a vicinity at this point.
326 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023 An upper level low presently situated over northern MN will track into northern MI by this evening, driving much cooler air into our area. 850 mb temperatures will be a good 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, and we are looking at highs well below normal - in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
A cold front will approach from the north on Saturday increasing the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms.
132 AM MDT Fri May 19 2023 Satellite imagery showed a strong ridge over the western CONUS up into western Canada with N/NW flow over eastern Montana. The ridge aloft will maintain its axis just west of our region the next couple of days. However, the low level winds will switch to the south for a while today and tonight which may reduce near surface smoke and leave skies just hazy. A short wave rounds the upper ridge Saturday and tracks through the NE corner of Montana and into the Dakotas by Saturday evening.
228 AM MDT Fri May 19 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large trough dropping down from the Hudson Bay through the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Central Plains. An areas of hot high pressure over the Desert Southwest and form up a ridge and stretches it north through the Pacific Northwest and into southern British Columbia. Northeast Montana lies on the downslope of the ridge under northern flow. To the west a large trough is increasing in intensity just off the coast of British Columbia. Meanwhile, a warm front will start forming up tonight across central to western Montana and southern Alberta.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms moved across some of the Florida Keys coastal waters, while some island in the Lower Keys received accumulation. As a mid to upper level trough located in the southeastern U.
1126 PM MDT Thu May 18 2023 Latest analysis shows the upper low tracking southeastward out of Manitoba into northwestern Minnesota. At the surface, cool high pressure is sliding southward out of Saskatchewan across eastern MT/western ND. The low level cold advection and a tightening of the surface pressure gradient have produced breezy/windy conditions this afternoon. Although the areas with thicker smoke may see temperatures remain a little warmer, some areas, especially over parts of northwestern South Dakota (where the smoke is expected to decrease the most tonight) may be cool enough for patchy frost late tonight/early Friday. Friday will be dry with slightly cooler than average temperatures.
218 AM EDT Fri May 19 2023 An area of high pressure east of Cape Cod will extend its ridge west into the Mid Atlantic region, providing fair, dry weather across the Commonwealth through the day Friday. A cold front will move east from the Ohio Valley and bring showers to much of the Commonwealth Friday night and Saturday.
1233 AM EDT Fri May 19 2023 A cold front will drop through this afternoon into early this evening with a line of rain showers and a slight chance for storms.
* Temperatures will be cooler today as a cold front pushes through the area.
Incoming cool fronts will initially bring sctrd showers acrs the area early this morning, the breezy cooler conditions for the afternoon and tonight. There is a chance for wildfire smoke to make it to the surface behind a cold front this morning. Post- frontal cool advection to lead to breezy northwest winds in the afternoon and 12 hour highs only in the low to mid 60s north, to the low 70s in the southeast. H85 mb cool ridge rule and temps overhead of +4 to +5C suggest the fcst lows in the low to mid 40s on track like what is occurring upstream acrs eastern SD.
113 AM EDT Fri May 19 2023 A low pressure system developing along the Carolina coast will move northeast over the Outer Banks on Friday and Friday night, but with weak high pressure persisting in our area.
119 AM MDT Fri May 19 2023 Across the region this afternoon, skies are a wide mix of sunny down to cloudy conditions as a cold front is draped across the area.
The RAP model, which features smoke projections, indicates we could mix some elevated smoke down to the surface during the afternoon and evening hours behind the cold front.
(This evening through Friday) Early this afternoon, WV imagery showing a closed low over the northern Baja region with weak west-southwest flow over much of Texas. At the surface, a trough/weak dewpoint gradient was located along the New Mexico state line on south into the Big Bend. Also, instability was slowly increasing to the east and low level moisture was in place with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Going with the highest Pops across western and northwest parts of our area. Another hot day with highs in the low er to mid 90s.
This combined with slight ridging in the mid levels overhead will likely lower PoPs a bit from the previous several days.
211 AM EDT Fri May 19 2023 An area of high pressure east of Cape Cod will extend its ridge west into the Mid Atlantic region, providing fair, dry weather across the Commonwealth through the day Friday. A cold front will move east from the Ohio Valley and bring showers to much of the Commonwealth Friday night and Saturday.
Highs today will be slightly cooler than those experienced yesterday and reflect convection coverage. Lows tonight will be quite mild reflecting warm air pooling along/ahead of surface cold frontal passage with lows mid to upper 60s, mainly lower 60s Cumberland Plateau Region.
Storms are expected to continue through Oklahoma and northern Texas through Friday morning, with the most coverage across northern Oklahoma as the MCV continues it's trek to the northeast and as the cold front gradually shifts south and east through the region. The cold front will continue to move northwest to southeast Friday through Oklahoma and western north Texas. With decent CAPE (SBCAPE > 2000 J/kg), decent shear (0-6km shear ~35kts, 0-1km shear ~ 20kt), and plentiful moisture with low LCLs, severe weather may develop along and ahead of the cold front with all hazards possible. As the cold front shifts through the region, precipitation will gradually end behind the front, and exit the area Friday night.
437 AM EDT Fri May 19 2023 A cold front will approach and bring widespread showers to the region today, perhaps a brief thunderstorm as well.
(Today through Saturday Night ) Benign wx conds were again noted acrs the area early this mrng with weak sfc ridging noted ovr NW AR. Meanwhile, deep upper low is fcst to move acrs the Great Lakes region thru Sat.
Currently, as of 3am, the vast majority of the low-level/near- surface smoke appears to have cleared south of the CWA. WAA through the column with the approach of an upper-level ridge will result in more seasonable temperatures across the area Saturday, with highs most likely between 70 and 80 F.
1249 AM EDT Fri May 19 2023 (Rest of today through Friday) Models remain in fair agreement in having a mid-level trough pushing further south across the SE CONUS and further into northern Florida. For Friday, the aforementioned trough pushes further eastward as it digs deeper along the southeastward coast into the Atlantic.
This will also be accompanied by high pressure to our northeast. Tonight Heading into the overnight period, the aforementioned closed low will advance further south, leading to height falls and the associated downstream jet streak to move closer to the region.
1226 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough just of the Baja coast, promoting weak ridging over Texas and southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. While mesoanalysis shows the area capped at 16Z, this should erode in the next couple of hours, w/convection developing over the higher terrain, then developing east w/the dryline. Friday gets a little more interesting as a cold front approaches the area.
Resultant WAA in addition to efficient daytime mixing will provide a slightly warmer day today than yesterday, with many locations expected to eclipse the 90-degree mark. Meanwhile, to our north, a weak surface cold frontal boundary will slowly push through the Central Plains and eventually approach the area this evening, with scattered showers and storms forming along and ahead of the boundary.
223 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler and breezier today with some smoke lingering aloft. The cold front passage that occurred overnight has cleared out any near surface smoke in the MPX CWA. Northwesterly winds will prevail in the front's wake, bringing in cooler air to end the work week. RAP forecasts also show smoke aloft hanging overhead into Friday evening before the trough over the Great Lakes moves east, clearing out clouds and smoke by Friday evening. Lows Friday night are forecast in the low to mid 40s. This weekend looks really nice with mostly sunny skies as high pressure moves east over the central CONUS.
In the upper levels, low pressure centered in the Upper Mississippi Valley will progress southeast into the Great Lakes tonight through tomorrow night. In response, low pressure at the surface will drag a northeast to southwest oriented cold front from southern Canada through the Central Plains. Otherwise, high temperatures tomorrow will be split by the cold front, with low 70s expected behind it and low 80s ahead.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly in the afternoon, increasing in coverage this evening and overnight as a cold front moves through the area. Lingering showers are expected through early Saturday afternoon, but drier and slightly cooler air will settle over the Mid-South for the remainder of the weekend.
1104 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Smoke aloft will remain widespread through Friday, but will be less visible as clouds increase ahead of a cold front.
318 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023 Early this morning, a potent upper trough was entering the Great Lakes region with a cold front extending from central Wisconsin to the central plains. Northerly winds behind the aforementioned cold front should push this smoke southward into central Kansas (and perhaps further south) as rain moves out of the area. Temperatures will be in generally be in the 70s, which is near to slightly cooler for this time of year. Surface ridging sliding into the area, radiational cooling each night may lead to the development of shallow fog, especially in areas that receive the most rainfall. So will run with some FU at most sites and feel the lowest visibility will be for KRSL and KGBD.
(Today through Saturday) The trough continues it's progression eastward as it digs deeper along the southeastward coast into the Atlantic. Overnight temperatures will be on the warmer side further inland, but keeping near normal with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. As we move into the weekend, the FL Peninsula will be in the path of the exiting mid-level trough and a ridge begins to build in behind over the Gulf of Mexico.
1206 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023 A mid/upper trough over Manitoba was digging southeast into the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley area this afternoon. A cold front extended from this system south and southwestward from the arrowhead of Minnesota to the Central High Plains.
605 AM EDT Fri May 19 2023 A cold front will approach and bring widespread showers to the region today, perhaps a brief thunderstorm as well.
649 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023 (Today through Saturday Night ) Benign wx conds were again noted acrs the area early this mrng with weak sfc ridging noted ovr NW AR. Meanwhile, deep upper low is fcst to move acrs the Great Lakes region thru Sat.
Synoptic cold front will also push into northeast OK mid to late afternoon. As the cold front continues to push southeast through the area this evening, storm chances will shift southeast, though some precipitation could linger behind the front into very early Friday morning.
(Today through Saturday) An upper level ridge of high pressure is expected to persist/meander over the region today/Saturday (deterministic ECMWF/GFS).
614 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023 (Today through Saturday) Showers are lingering longer than expected this morning due to presence of a mid level trof axis near the AL/MS state line. The trof axis will move eastward this morning and bring some drier mid level air into Alabama. A wedge front has pushed into west Alabama, and slightly cooler temperatures expected for areas north of I-85 and east of I-65. The next round of convection will arrive Saturday morning across the northwest counties ahead of a cold front.
651 AM EDT Fri May 19 2023 Another dry day is expected today, however a passing cold front will bring a chance for rain late tonight and Saturday.
Despite the warmer start, with extensive cloud cover we will likely only be able to muster 2-4F increase in maxT this afternoon. Latest WV imagery shows the upper low progged to return rain to the region currently over Minnesota. Temperature maxima in these areas may be constrained to near- normal values as greater cloud cover limits heating, while areas to the east will be several degrees warmer in a bit more sunshine. Latest guidance progs the front beginning to enter eastern OH zones shortly after midnight, and east of the ridges by early afternoon. Temperatures will fall to slightly below normal on Saturday in the wake of the cold front.
537 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023 An upper level low presently situated over northern MN will track into northern MI by this evening, driving much cooler air into our area. 850 mb temperatures will be a good 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, and we are looking at highs well below normal - in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
However, in the low-levels moderate southeasterly flow exists between a strong ridge of high pressure centered off the coast of New England and a developing area of low pressure across the southern High Plains.
Incoming cold front will initially bring sctrd showers acrs the area early this morning, then breezy/cooler conditions for the afternoon into tonight. There is a chance for wildfire smoke to make it to the surface behind a cold front this morning. Post- frontal cool advection to lead to breezy northwest winds in the afternoon and 12 hour highs only in the low to mid 60s north, to the low 70s in the southeast. H85 mb cool ridge rule and temps overhead of +4 to +5C suggest the fcst lows in the low to mid 40s on track like what is occurring upstream acrs eastern SD.
637 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023 Today and tonight: Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over the U.
Warmer, above-normal temperatures are expected over the weekend.
620 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler and breezier today with some smoke lingering aloft. The cold front passage that occurred overnight has cleared out any near surface smoke in the MPX CWA. Northwesterly winds will prevail in the front's wake, bringing in cooler air to end the work week. RAP forecasts also show smoke aloft hanging overhead into Friday evening before the trough over the Great Lakes moves east, clearing out clouds and smoke by Friday evening. Lows Friday night are forecast in the low to mid 40s. This weekend looks really nice with mostly sunny skies as high pressure moves east over the central CONUS.
The tail-end of a medium-wave trough axis is just to the east of South Florida, with dry and stable air spreading southeast through the Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery and our rooftop camera suggest a slow thickening to the cumulus across the Lower Keys, with weak outflow boundaries approaching from the Gulf side waters.
416 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023 Today and tonight: Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over the U.
A broad area of high pressure will continue to strengthen over the region today, allowing temperatures to soar above the 90 degree mark for lower western Nevada valleys and into the high 70s for Sierra valleys this afternoon. A Rex block pattern characterized by a stagnant area of low pressure south of the ridge will enable moist, southerly flow to ride over the western periphery of the ridge today. While synoptic forcing is overall unimpressive under this ridge, intense surface heating in conjunction with this increasing moisture availability (PWATs 0. High resolution ensemble members indicate convective initiation along the high Sierra and in northern Lassen/Washoe counties around 1-2 PM today.
Most guidance builds slightly stronger upper level ridging over the area this afternoon.
715 AM EDT Fri May 19 2023 (Today through Saturday) The trough continues it's progression eastward as it digs deeper along the southeastward coast into the Atlantic. Overnight temperatures will be on the warmer side further inland, but keeping near normal with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. As we move into the weekend, the FL Peninsula will be in the path of the exiting mid-level trough and a ridge begins to build in behind over the Gulf of Mexico.
There are high DCAPE values in the lower 1000s J/kg that can lead to strong gusty outflows and potential microbursts.
The upper level ridge axis remains just to our east, while a broad closed low controls the northeast Pacific. The resulting pattern, which we expect to remain in place through the weekend, places southern Oregon and far northern California under weak southwest flow and slightly cooler temperatures aloft.
646 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023 (Today through Saturday) An upper level ridge of high pressure is expected to persist/meander over the region today/Saturday (deterministic ECMWF/GFS).
High pressure south of the area should keep west to southwesterly flow across the Gulf waters before shifting from the west to northwest during the weekend. Area of high pressure remains over south Florida keeps west to southwesterly flow in place across fire districts today.
626 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023 A recent hand surface analysis places a baggy trough axis along a weak cold front stretching from central Wisconsin to far northwestern Illinois and into the Southern Plains. Low- to mid- level moisture ahead of the front is fairly scant with surface dew points only in the low to mid 50s and mean 700-300mb relative humidity values of only around 30-40% (re: 00Z DVN RAOB). Behind the cold front, breezy northwest winds will settle into the region with partially clearing skies. Highs will climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s with locally cooler conditions along the Lake Michigan shore.
A ridge of high pressure will become the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies for the next couple of days.
654 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly in the afternoon, increasing in coverage this evening and overnight as a cold front moves through the area. Lingering showers are expected through early Saturday afternoon, but drier and slightly cooler air will settle over the Mid-South for the remainder of the weekend.
101 PM EDT Fri May 19 2023 A cold front will approach and bring widespread showers to the region today, perhaps a brief thunderstorm as well.
Discussion: This afternoon a mid-level trough has moved out of central Kansas as moisture is pooling along a 850mb boundary that has allowed a widespread shield of showers to overspread the area south of Highway 36. CAA will allow temperatures to fall back into the low to mid 40s. High pressure builds into the area for the weekend making for very pleasant conditions.
The bubbling cumulus, the higher than expected rain/thunder chances, and the short half-life to these storms suggest rainy season is near.
With the weak winds, nearly full sunshine, and afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, outdoor weekend activities are encouraged Saturday.
Wraparound moisture and deep layer q- vector convergence associated with the low is supporting isolated to scattered showers mainly over Lake Superior and the western counties of the U. this evening before sliding se of the fcst late tonight with the exiting closed low. Look for min temps ranging from the mid 30s interior west to the lower to mid 40s mainly east and south central. By 12Z Saturday, the low that forced showers today will be departed and PoPs will be exiting the region.
218 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Brisk tonight into Saturday morning as lows drop into the low to mid 40s. This allows our temperatures to plummet into the low to mid 40s by Saturday AM.
Severe Thunderstorms Likely and Isolated Flash Flooding Possible Early this afternoon, much of west central Texas is in the warm sector, ahead of a cold front. The pre storm environment/warm sector indicates moderate to locally strong buoyancy and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Much cooler Saturday with highs in the 70s.
Expect cloud cover to break up this evening, before increasing again as a cold front pushes east from eastern Arkansas towards the Tennessee Valley. Low level moisture advection will increase ahead of the front overnight and with increasing cloud cover temperatures will be hard pressed to drop much below the lower to mid 60 degree range.
Additional development could also occur in advance of a strong cold front currently entering areas north of I-44.
107 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 (Today through Saturday Night ) Benign wx conds were again noted acrs the area early this mrng with weak sfc ridging noted ovr NW AR. Meanwhile, deep upper low is fcst to move acrs the Great Lakes region thru Sat.
After midnight, a cold front being carried by a closed low located over the Great Lakes region will move into the area after midnight increasing rain chances mainly north of Interstate 20.
High pressure is located over the Southern Appalachians with southerly flow to the west of this high bringing moisture into the Quad State. Meanwhile, low pressure approaching Lake Superior is trailing a cold front southwestward, which is expected to progress through the Quad State this evening. Models continue to slow the progression of the cold front and linger precipitation in Western Kentucky through Saturday morning.
(This evening through tonight) A strong cold front is advancing to the southeast across central Oklahoma this afternoon. An unstable air mass (MLCAPE ~2000 to 2500 J/kg) combined with moderate shear (effective bulk shear ~30 to 35 knots) will be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms as the cold front moves into south central/southeast Oklahoma. The cold front will continue to move to the southeast and will exit southeast Oklahoma early to mid-evening--ending any convection.
237 PM EDT Fri May 19 2023 A cold front will bring showers to the region starting late tonight, then lasting through at least early Saturday afternoon.
1159 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023 (Today through Saturday) An upper level ridge of high pressure is expected to persist/meander over the region today/Saturday (deterministic ECMWF/GFS).
In its wake, it will take some time for airmass recovery this afternoon, but some potential remains for convection to develop later this afternoon as the main cold front moves into the area.