Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered from New England thru much of the Great Lakes region this afternoon. low pressure has shifted just east of James Bay with an associated cold front extending from the low thru Central Ontario. Midlevel troughing over hudson bay continues to dig and amply as it crosses northern lower. An associated cold front will continue to move south across northern lower MI bringing light scattered showers.
948 AM MDT Tue May 23 2023 08Z analysis shows an upper trough over the western CONUS with an upper ridge over the Great Plains. The upper trough will remain anchored in place, while the upper ridge gradually shifts eastward. Due to the upper ridge and subsidence over the eastern parts of the forecast area, the bulk of convection over the next few days will be over northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota. Warmer than average temperatures will continue through the forecast period.
327 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Ridging spanning across the Plains should keep conditions mostly benign today, save for a few showers and storms. Highs are progged to be a tad cooler, but still in the mid to upper 80s area-wide.
The pattern remains unsettled through the remainder of the week as the upper level trough deepens over Florida. This will also allow for even cooler temperatures aloft and elevate the chance for strong storms and potential for hail.
338 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023 High pressure will extend from the northeastern United States south into the Carolinas for much of the week, although low pressure could impact the Memorial Day weekend. High pressure remains centered over New England with a ridge extending south towards the Carolinas. Areas of Low Pressure will Bring Unsettled Weather at times this Holiday Weekend, however the Details Remain Uncertain.
The deeper moisture begins to move farther south and offshore Wednesday with high pressure and dry weather expected for the end of the week. There remains potential for an offshore low pressure system to bring another chance of rain to the region over the holiday weekend. A strong pressure ridge centered off the coast of New England will extend southwest across the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. Cold advection overnight so favor cooler temps especially north of CAE where air is drier and less clouds expected. although some mid and high level clouds expected overnight ahead of upper trough over the Deep South. High pressure over the Great Lakes will begin to build south over the east coast with broad troughing in the upper levels.
The hazy skies have kept temperatures a little cooler than originally forecasted so far, but with clearing expected still by late afternoon, temperatures should be able to increase another few degrees before the sun starts to set. High pressure will slowly drift eastward as the upper level ridge begins to break down tomorrow morning. Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances are expected by Wednesday afternoon and evening as low pressure begins to build off the Front Ranges. At this time, highs will generally be in the low 70s to low 80s with the coolest temperatures across southwest Nebraska where the best chance for rain development is expected.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) 500mb RAP analysis shows subtle ridging across southern AZ/NM, providing northwest flow of around 25-30kts across our area. Efficient insolation this morning has sent temperatures well into the 80s already, pushing the low 90s in some spots. Northwest flow persists through tomorrow as well, with the dryline having retreated up against the higher terrain tomorrow morning. Thanks to plenty of low level moisture in place scattered thunderstorms are possible initially off the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and high New Mexico plains. As for temperatures, lows tonight and Wednesday night will be right around normal with highs tomorrow being a touch cooler than today across the northern/northeastern Permian Basin owing to any precipitation from today/tonight.
Tomorrow should be the warmest day through the weekend with temperatures mainly in the low to mid 80s.
Then, expect the remainder of this week and into the weekend to feature dry, warmer, and breezy weather. A drying trend begins today across the Southwest due to the development of a trough currently taking shape over California and Nevada. These conditions are assisting with dropping our overnight/morning low temperatures to the low to mid-30s for areas in and around Flagstaff. That is not uncommon for the High Country this time of year, but it is something to at least mention.
906 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023 Warm and mainly dry weather is likely to persist through Wednesday under high pressure.
622 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The short term forecast is a challenging one as the region remains under northwest flow aloft with an upper ridge sitting near the TX/NM border.
750 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023 Aviation The high pressure that has dominated the last few days will shift westward as a upper level trough swings through.
705 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023 High pressure will keep conditions dry across the Mid Atlantic through the middle of this week.
614 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023 A little weak low level warm advection is incoming on near surface southeasterlies, with dew points running in the lower 60s. Weak pva from nearby low pressure aloft may coexist at times and combine with diurnal instability to touch off an isolated shower or storm during the heat of the pm today-tmrw. trof drags a cold front across the Ohio valley. High pressure builds across the Great Lakes in its wake, and will begin to push this refreshingly cooler/drier air our direction. The aforementioned high will firm its grip as it settles over the Great Lakes and influences the lower Ohio river valley with its cool/dry northeasterly near surface flow.
A deep marine layer and cooler conditions will remain in place across the region through late week as strong onshore flow persists.
1054 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023 Update Back door cold front timing is for an early Wednesday morning fropa and a stark change to the currently calm/mild conditions. The high pressure that has dominated the last few days will shift westward as a upper level trough swings through.
Night and morning clouds will persist through the remainder of the week in response to an upper level trough over the West Coast. (This evening through Wednesday) A deep marine layer with lingering clouds, continued onshore flow, and a passing upper level trough led to a noticeable cooldown across the Bay Area and Central Coast this afternoon. As such temperatures were updated for this afternoon and nudged cooler, especially around Monterey Bay.
918 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023 High pressure will remain overhead through tonight before moving offshore Wednesday.
727 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023 High pressure will extend from the northeastern United States south into the Carolinas for much of the week, although low pressure could impact the Memorial Day weekend. High pressure remains centered over New England with a ridge extending south towards the Carolinas. Areas of Low Pressure will Bring Unsettled Weather at times this Holiday Weekend, however the Details Remain Uncertain.
We'll have another tranquil night tonight with surface ridging to our east and upper ridging to our west. Tomorrow a cold front will approach from the north. Afternoon highs will again be in the lower and middle 80s. about five degrees warmer than normal. The mid-week synoptic view will feature an Omega pattern over the lower 48, with extensive ridging over the central Plains stretching from the Mexican border to the Canadian border, and troughs over both coasts.
Most areas will remain dry overnight, but will maintain some low pops in the western part of the forecast area to cover ongoing activity plus the low potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms to move into the area from the west late tonight.
623 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023 Upper level ridging remains in place tonight into Wednesday which means continued warm with southerly breezes. By Wednesday afternoon a weak wave will drop south into Wisconsin which will allow slightly cooler air to try to back westward towards the Buffalo Ridge in southwest MN. Maybe a couple of degrees cooler in southwest MN where the better chance for enhanced cumulus exists.
727 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023 Currently have upper troughing extending from British Columbia down into the Pacific Northwest with a broad area of upper ridging across the Plains. At the surface, some weak Lee troughing is in place with a broad area of high pressure from the Great Lakes into the Northeast CONUS.
959 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023 High pressure will extend across the middle Atlantic ahead of a dry, backdoor cold front that will cross NC Wednesday night.
An upper level low is currently centered over the Pacific Northwest that will slowly move southward towards Arizona by the weekend. Due to this slow movement, a ridge over the Northern Plains will continue to strengthen and continue the dry southwest flow. The temperatures remain to be fairly consistent with the high 80s to mid 90s in the valleys and 60s to 70s in the higher elevations over the next 7 days. After the weekend the upper low has some uncertainty in the movement and depth in many of the ensembles. Very dry conditions will prevail through the weekend with afternoon RH values in the single digits across the lower elevations and 10-15 percent in the highest elevations.
651 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) Tonight through Wednesday night, a backdoor cold front boundary will arrive and linger over the area.
624 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Ridging spanning across the Plains should keep conditions mostly benign today, save for a few showers and storms. Highs are progged to be a tad cooler, but still in the mid to upper 80s area-wide.
The latest guidance indicates that convection will be near the Highway 281 corridor around midnight, and near I-35 around 2 AM or so.
Today, the island chain experienced intermittent cloud cover and recorded temperatures ranging from the high 80s to the low 90s. The temperatures at Key West and Marathon International Airports were recorded in the lower 90s. Afterward, the convection is propelled towards the Lower Keys in the early hours of tomorrow morning.
Otherwise, an upper-level trough with embedded disturbances will linger over the West Coast through late week. Afternoon destabilization beneath the trough is forecast to be maximized across the Yolla Bolly Mountains each afternoon this week, and will aid in scattered shower/isolated thunderstorm development.
Early afternoon objective analysis showed more pronounced troughing continuing to develop along the West Coast, promoting persistent dry southwesterly flow aloft over the region. Ensemble guidance is in very good agreement that troughing will persist across the western CONUS through this weekend, resulting in continued dry conditions and temperatures close to normal for this time of year. Heading through the latter half of the week, heights are set to gradually fall as the troughing slowly shifts inland and weakens. This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures near to slightly below normal towards the end of the week with the more notable temperature decreases focused across the western CWA closer to the trough.
1012 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023 Marine The high pressure that has dominated the last few days will shift westward as a upper level trough swings through.
948 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023 Wx map shows weak high pressure across the region, with a weak stationary front along the coast.
553 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) 500mb RAP analysis shows subtle ridging across southern AZ/NM, providing northwest flow of around 25-30kts across our area. Efficient insolation this morning has sent temperatures well into the 80s already, pushing the low 90s in some spots. Northwest flow persists through tomorrow as well, with the dryline having retreated up against the higher terrain tomorrow morning. Thanks to plenty of low level moisture in place scattered thunderstorms are possible initially off the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and high New Mexico plains. As for temperatures, lows tonight and Wednesday night will be right around normal with highs tomorrow being a touch cooler than today across the northern/northeastern Permian Basin owing to any precipitation from today/tonight.
North-south upper trough in eastern Oregon should remain nearly stationary but gradually weaken through the week. Temps will slowly rise as the trough weakens.
638 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023 Warm and mainly dry weather is likely to persist through Wednesday under high pressure.
18z surface data has high pressure from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley west into the Plains. A cold front was along the international border moving south. A back door cold front will push into the area Wednesday leading to quite a contrast in temperatures.
Night and morning clouds will persist through the remainder of the week in response to an upper level trough over the West Coast.
An upper trough will begin to dig southeast out of the Great Lakes today, but locally flow aloft will remain weak. Temperatures will once again be around seasonal norms, with upper 70s to around 80 expected in the low elevations.
The forecast for the remainder of the week continues to be dominated by a broad upper level trough that remains over the southeastern US. At the surface, a weak trough will continue to linger over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula today and Thursday, favoring light east/northeast flow and deep moisture. The abundant moisture and rain chances should also keep temperatures down somewhat, with highs expected to top out in the low 80s north to mid to upper 80s south.
(Today through Thursday) Under a further amplifying H5 trough, the region will remain on the dry side of this feature.
Highs today will reach the lower 80s, but will remain a few degrees cooler in the south and west where precipitation is more likely. Highs will reach the low- to mid-80s on Thursday before a northwestward moving cold front sweeps through the region, bringing low coverage showers to the far northwest counties.
By Thursday a back door cold front will push through allowing temperatures to dip into the upper 70s to low 80s.
300 AM MDT Wed May 24 2023 A low pressure system will stall over the Intermountain West through the remainder of the week, resulting in continued shower and thunderstorm activity mainly across SW Idaho over the next several days. The highest forecast uncertainty lies in the intensity and placement of shower and thunderstorm activity through the week, as forecast models continue to disagree over the degree of monsoon moisture that flows into the region.
225 AM MDT Wed May 24 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure over the Desert Southwest has ridged its way up through Wyoming into eastern Montana and the Dakotas. To the west a trough sets over the Pacific Northwest and is throwing various disturbances east into the southwest flow across the region which generates a pattern for regular showers and thunderstorms in Nemont territory. each time a disturbance moves through it pushes the ridge back east a bit or flattens it briefly. When the disturbance exits, the ridge quickly rebounds bringing heat back up from the south like clock work for the next wave.
A deep marine layer and cooler conditions will remain in place across the region through late week as strong onshore flow persists. An upper-level trough over northern California will dig into southern and central California through Thursday and onshore flow will continue to strengthen. With NAM-BUFR time heights sections still indicating a favorable flow pattern through the mixed layer for drizzle and the trough to the north adding some instability to the equation, patchy drizzle was added to the forecast and PoPs were increased across the area. A cooler air mass is likely to linger into late week as onshore flow and cloud coverage will keep temperatures down.
Dewpoints will decrease tonight as a backdoor cold front of sorts moves through as ridging strengthens over southeast Canada behind a digging upper level trough. Some middle and high cloudiness is expected invof the tail end of the flattening upper trough overhead.
Satellite imagery continues to show our persistent southerly flow over our region as an upper low sits over the Pacific NW. Thursday may be a little cooler with primarily 70s expected.
1150 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Ridging spanning across the Plains should keep conditions mostly benign today, save for a few showers and storms. Highs are progged to be a tad cooler, but still in the mid to upper 80s area-wide.
118 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A crossing cold front may spark a few isolated showers or thunderstorm this afternoon and evening.
212 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A cold front will bring widespread showers and a few thunderstorms later today. Cooler and drier conditions will round out the week, with a risk of frost and localized freezing temperatures Wednesday and Thursday night. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s tomorrow night, but winds will likely prevent frost development. However, we may still need freeze headlines, as a few locations in the sheltered valleys of the Catskills and in Northern Oneida County may reach or drop below freezing. After a cold front moves through Wednesday, gusty northerly winds will keep temperatures on the chilly side for Thursday.
914 PM MDT Tue May 23 2023 Satellite imagery this evening shows a moist southerly flow aloft streaming north into MT ahead of a nearly stationary large scale upper trough situated inland of the west coast.
359 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Main forecast item for this forecast remains the cold front and resulting temperature drop. If gradient winds do ease some degree tonight, it would allow for temperatures to fall closer to freezing. Today's cold front and passing mid level trough will mark the transition to a greater longwave amplification for the late week period that eventually evolves into a blocking pattern through the holiday weekend.
(Today) An Omega Block like flow pattern has become entrenched over the lower 48 this early Wed morning, with upper trough axes in place over the Atlantic states and the West Coast, while a strong upper ridge pattern occupies the Plains states. A weak area of high pressure also remains layered from the mid Atlantic Coast SW into the mid TN Valley. These features combined are translating into dry/near seasonal wx conditions for the local area, with highs later today climbing mainly into the lower 80s/near 80F.
205 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Mainly dry high pressure will be in place through mid-week before being reinforced by a front moving south across the region on Thursday.
354 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A crossing cold front may spark a few isolated showers or thunderstorm this afternoon and evening.
350 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 High pressure over the area bringing warm and generally sunny skies will be pushed south by. stronger high pressure. A dry cold front enters from the north this evening. Thursday will be significantly cooler by 10-15 degrees as a reinforcing shot of cold air is pushed into the region.
1104 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023 Wx map shows weak high pressure across the region, with a weak stationary front along the coast.
257 AM MDT Wed May 24 2023 All in all it looks like more of the same across the area as the dominant feature in the weather continues to be an upper level low over Washington State that continues the moist southwest flow over the area, bringing a continuous feed of Pacific moisture into the area.
An unstable south/southwesterly flow aloft resides over the Northern Rockies this morning courtesy of west coast troughing. Ensembles remain in good agreement with persistent troughing over the Pacific Northwest maintaining this weather pattern for at least the remainder of the workweek.
1220 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Weak high pressure is prevailing across AR as low pressure resides to the west and east of the forecast area. Low pressure will strengthen over eastern OK/far western AR on Wednesday leading to increased chances of showers and thunderstorms over the far western portion of the forecast area mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Conditions quickly dry out Wednesday night/Thursday as high pressure builds over the forecast area both at the surface and aloft.
Almost a repeat of yesterday across the region today, with upper level ridging persisting across the central CONUS, a smoke layer remaining in place aloft, and plenty of cumulus development across the area.
Lows Thu night will drop into the low 50s to low 60s.
1202 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) Tonight through Wednesday night, a backdoor cold front boundary will arrive and linger over the area.
High pressure is starting to build in from the north, and this will keep us rain-free for the next few days with generally low dew points and temperatures at or below normal.
Dry air wraps around the base of upper trough, which will keep skies fairly clear, allowing temperatures to warm into the middle 80s despite northerly flow. Thursday, a dry cold front sags south, with even drier air filtering in the wake.
Near-freezing temperatures Wednesday and Thursday night in the northern tier could damage sensitive vegetation. Noticeably cooler/chilly and drier airmass will be ushered into CPA tonight behind a northerly breeze. 24hr minimum temp chance will be 15-20F colder across the northern tier with fcst lows near the freezing mark. Canadian high pressure will build south into Pennsylvania Thursday, ushering in clear/cool weather and sweeping high level smoke south of the state. Mixing down 850mb temps around 5C translates to high temps ranging from near 60F over the N Mtns, to the upper 60s across the Lower Susq Valley. Hazy morning sun will give way to building clouds on Wednesday, as a cold front slides southward from NY state.
1038 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023 Upper level ridging remains in place tonight into Wednesday which means continued warm with southerly breezes. By Wednesday afternoon a weak wave will drop south into Wisconsin which will allow slightly cooler air to try to back westward towards the Buffalo Ridge in southwest MN. Maybe a couple of degrees cooler in southwest MN where the better chance for enhanced cumulus exists.
Satellite imagery this evening shows a moist southerly flow aloft streaming north into MT ahead of a nearly stationary large scale upper trough situated inland of the west coast.
330 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Discussion Cold front moves through today with little moisture to work with. Strong cold advection this afternoon and evening on northeast winds will result in overnight lows dropping to near or below freezing across the northern interior and in the mid to upper 30s across the rest of the forecast area. A cold front will move though this morning without much in the way of weather, just some mid level clouds across central and eastern Lower Michigan with ceilings AOB 4000 feet AGL.
1212 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) 500mb RAP analysis shows subtle ridging across southern AZ/NM, providing northwest flow of around 25-30kts across our area. Efficient insolation this morning has sent temperatures well into the 80s already, pushing the low 90s in some spots. Northwest flow persists through tomorrow as well, with the dryline having retreated up against the higher terrain tomorrow morning. Thanks to plenty of low level moisture in place scattered thunderstorms are possible initially off the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and high New Mexico plains. As for temperatures, lows tonight and Wednesday night will be right around normal with highs tomorrow being a touch cooler than today across the northern/northeastern Permian Basin owing to any precipitation from today/tonight.