Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level trough continues to dig in across the Great Lakes as of this afternoon. As the upper trough digs in, some light snow showers will be possible this afternoon into the evening hours generally from the Red River Valley eastward, with best chances for accumulating snowfall across northwestern and west central Minnesota. After the cold start and with high pressure building in from the west, high temperatures are only expected to rebound into the teens to low 20s on Saturday, amidst mostly quiet weather. Winds continue to lessen moving into Saturday night, but with high pressure leading to clearing skies, another cold night will be in store moving into Sunday morning.
(Today and tonight) The CWA remains on the southwestern periphery of an expansive baroclinic cyclone centered over southern Ontario. At the surface, a weakening cold front was crossing into the TX PH as of 0725Z, and will continue to propagate southward throughout the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon as a 1032 mb anticyclone shifts eastward. With the CWA on the western periphery of the entrance region to the mid- and high-level jet streaks rounding the base of the baroclinic cyclone, the cirrus deck will continue to advect northeastward overhead this afternoon. Therefore, temperatures will be similar to yesterday to perhaps a couple of degrees warmer.
358 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 Key Messages: * An unseasonably cool start to the weekend with many locations likely not climbing above freezing this afternoon.
Looking towards the weekend, upper circulation will drag eastward along southern Canada with additional small embedded troughs moving around its periphery. Models note a trough passage Saturday afternoon/evening which could push squall-like snow showers through the North Country. Behind this trough, flow becomes unidirectional and favorable for moisture transport off of Lake Ontario. By early Sunday morning, another trough will be swinging through and could produce additional heavier snow showers resulting in rapid visibility reductions while beginning to disrupt the unidirectional flow off of Lake Ontario. Sunday night will see some lingering snow showers across the Dacks and NEK as a pair of weak upper trough swings in behind the departing upper low.
Highs by Sunday afternoon are forecast to increase into the lower 40s. Weak upper level ridging will build over the central Plains into mid week and continuing the warming trend.
1122 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Precipitation has exited the state, and cooler and drier air is continuing to overspread the area behind a cold front. Tomorrow night will be considerably colder, and freezing temperatures are expected to occur across the entire forecast area.
Our best bet for precip will be across the Brush Country and Northern Coastal Plains as low level convergence is maximized along a secondary surge of high pressure.
The pre-frontal trough/outflow has exited the area and the cold front was nearing Troy and Phenix City. The cold front will also exit shortly. The upper low will become positioned over the Central Great Lakes overnight while another trough will swing southeast over the Central Plains. The cold front will advance southeast of the area while another cold front will develop across the Central and Northern Plains and advance southeast through the night. The upper low will move over Southeast Canada while a longwave trough will continue to dive southeast over the Central Plains. A secondary cold front will push southeast into Central Alabama by late in the day on Saturday.
Satellite imagery this evening shows just some thin high clouds spilling over the upper level ridge that extends north through the Northern Rockies. Hoenisch Quiet weather will continue through this weekend as high pressure maintains control over the area. 1110 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (18/06Z TAF Period) VFR conditions prevail across all terminals under predominately high- level clouds as an upper-level ridge of high pressure continues to propagate eastward across the northern Rockies. All of this pleasant weather is brought to us by means of upper level ridging, which has settled over our area and will remain with us through the upcoming weekend.
This could possibly allow temperatures to be bit cooler than forecast tonight - early Sunday morning.
H8 Temps currently running -3 to -7C nosedive to -15C or so by late Sat night-early Sunday as the parent cyclone and heart of the cold dome rotates overhead. In addition to the temp drawdown, dew points currently in the 20s will likewise see a nosedive, working down into the lower teens or even single digits by the close of the day tmrw.
This will allow for a short warming trend the next 2 days, with highs mainly in the 30s today, and much warmer temps Sunday as temps climb into the 50s on portions of the SD plains, possibly a few low 60s toward scentral SD. Ridge topping impulse will force a backdoor cold front into the region Sunday afternoon with NW SD seeing the bulk of the affect as temps and winds respond by afternoon. The best chances for accums looks to be Wed night into Thurs when a stronger upper trough crosses the region, with a few inches of snow possible toward central SD.
As the upper low meanders eastward along the International border, the sfc pressure gradient remains tight enough to induce 15-25 mph sustained northwest winds with gusts in the 20s and 30s, continuing overnight. Much warmer weather develops starting Sunday as upper ridging builds in aloft ahead of an approaching clipper system.
A new cold front to the NW will move SE into the state this morning. Lows tonight should drop below freezing for most of the area. Temps on Sun will be a tad warmer across NRN sections. with other locations similar to even a tad cooler across central to SRN AR. Some SRLY winds across the WRN/NWRN sections may keep mixing up Sun night for the higher terrain across the west. which may keep temps a bit warmer in those areas.
1113 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Fairly benign weather continues through the weekend, with cold temperatures and breezy conditions expected again Saturday, followed by warmer conditions Sunday. Drier air is located underneath a ridge encompassing the Great Basin to the southwest. Elsewhere over the high plains, satellite shows some popcorn cumulus activity once again, with some very weak radar returns showing up. For Saturday, the upper level low starts to slowly drift off to the east, weakening the pressure gradients over our area.
Water vapor shows upper low over the Upper Midwest with short wave diving south across western SD, and upper ridge over the Pac NW. Snow showers and gusty northwest winds continue across much of western SD with short wave trof rotating around the main upper low. Rather flat upper ridge will build in over the weekend, with mainly dry weather expected. Much warmer temps then expected on Sunday as lee trof advances into the Dakotas and winds shift to the southwest.
Passing high clouds today with lingering gusty north winds up to 30 mph in the lower Colorado River Valley and northwest Arizona.
Light rain behind a cold front persists in southeast Kentucky late this afternoon, but will be exiting to the east and southeast as the cold front continues to pull away. Under an unusually strong late season upper trough, another cold front will move through from the northwest on Saturday. The upper level pattern will start out with a trough across the upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with a deep closed low over western Quebec while a disorganized ridge tries to build across the Rockies and Plains.
Although the upper trough will shift east of the region today, cyclonic northwest flow, lingering moisture and steep lapse rates will produce scattered snow shower development. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region tonight and Sunday.
1227 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 (Tonight) A relatively uneventful night weather-wise is underway this evening, with the recently departed cold front now well SE of our local CWFA, pushing into Ern GA and into the Carolinas. With the coldest air still NW over portions of the Ern Plains and into portions of Wrn MO/AR, morning lows will only fall to a degree or three south of the freezing mark.
Outside chance in the southern valley closest to the center of the low and therefore the longest period of calm winds we could see some teens below.
Right now the coldest temperatures are in the same areas where winds have lessened under the influence of high pressure. As the high pulls away the winds look to become southwest, and perhaps breezy for some areas.
Big closed low up over the Great lakes region with a moderate northwest flow pattern wrapping all the way back into northeast Colorado. Further west towards the Front Range less winds with a weak Longmont anticyclone in place and less clouds. For Saturday, high pressure ridge builds into the region with a drier and more subsident airmass. Temperatures only slightly warmer with coldest temperatures over the far northeast plains under a stronger temperature gradient from the Great Lakes low. Upper level ridging remains persistent over the Great Plains through the weekend.
Discussion: We will remain under a deep eastern US trough aloft as an upper low over the Great Lakes moves slowly northeast. Temperatures today will struggle to get much higher than the mid 40s to lower 50s in most valley locations, then tonight's lows will be some 15+ degrees below normal and will be in the lower to mid 20s in most valley locations while teens will be common in the higher terrain.
1219 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Upper low located along the MT/MN/Canadian border this morning with a broad trough extending south across the plains and a ridge extending north across the Western US. This low will wobble east across the Great Lakes today and tonight passing off to the NE Saturday. Saturday will not be any warmer than today which is around 20 degrees below normal. and Pecos counties where 1 to 3 inches of snow expected with locally higher amounts for the higher elevations.
1157 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) The latest cold front continues to push offshore, ushering in moderate to fresh northerly winds with occasional gusts around 25 mph. Continuous cold air advection will bring temperatures down to the low to mid 40s tonight with the exception of the Piney Woods area cooling down to the upper 30s. These showers will start in our southwestern counties and push east throughout the day, with the highest chances (~30%) south of I-10.
(Today through Sunday) Weather conditions across South FL will begin to change throughout the short term as an area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary make their way across the southeastern US towards the Florida peninsula. The interactions between an area of high pressure over the western Atlantic and the approaching boundary will result in enhanced southerly flow today across South Florida with winds gusting up to 20 knots. Although the 925-850mb FGEN looks fairly limited over our area, we will lie in the right entrance region of the UL jet, and moisture convergence near the low-lvl boundary will push PWATs into the 1.
1258 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023 Lingering showers mainly this morning across the southeast Midlands as a cold front moves toward the coast.
We will have another shot for light snow showers this afternoon as the last of the positive vorticity advection and front associated with the low moves through.
227 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2023 Upper ridging will dominate our weather and cause dry conditions to continue over the Northern Rockies this weekend. Clouds will increase again Sunday night, with high level clouds moving in from the west behind an upper ridge axis, and low-level clouds developing over eastern MT as northeasterly winds upslope the terrain. There will be south/southeasterly winds 20-25 mph gusting to 30-35 mph today and tonight over Carbon and eastern Stillwater Counties due to an enhanced surface pressure gradient in that area, between weak low pressure over central MT and higher pressure to the south.
The position of the high over Sioux Falls by around midnight, however a ridge extends northwest, resulting in light southwest flow, so some stabilization towards morning.
930 PM PDT Fri Mar 17 2023 A weak ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather Saturday. A weak trough will bring cooling Sunday along with chances of rain late in the day and Sunday night.
1047 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Anomalously cold airmass will slide southward tonight behind a secondary cold front resulting in temperatures some 20 degrees below climo on Saturday and Saturday night.
While most locations have not reached freezing as of 200 AM CDT, further temp falls are possible this morning before sunrise given dew point temps around freezing and below. Nevertheless, we will leave the Freeze Warning in place as temperatures will likely end up at/below freezing before daybreak at most locations. Otherwise, a short wave trough pivoting southward along the western flank of the long wave trough will send a reinforcement of cold air into the area later today.
A second reinforcing front extended from the same low SWWD into the Great Lakes toward OK with a large area of ridging across the C U. The upper trough should push EWD today into this evening. If it comes in cooler, then they may need to be added to the warning for tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms will move southward across the area on Saturday ahead of a cold front. No changes made to forecast timing or overall intensity regarding Saturday's expected showers and storms gradually working south across the peninsula ahead of an approaching cold front.
117 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023 (Rest of today through Saturday) Weather conditions across South FL will remain dry and breezy this afternoon as an area of high pressure remains in place over the western Atlantic Ocean. However, the weather pattern begins to change tomorrow as an area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary make their way across the southeastern US towards the Florida peninsula. The interactions between the area of high pressure and approaching boundary will result in enhanced southerly flow, with wind speeds up to 12 kts and wind gusts up to 20 kts possible. The warming trend continues through the short term as highs today reach the low 80s along the East Coast and mid 80s in the interior.
(Today and tonight) By daybreak the light and variable wind of early Saturday morning will have yielded to more moderately gusty north wind as another cold front arrives. The ridge of this air mass will extend through the plains through Sunday morning.
322 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 Key Messages: - Breezy with unseasonably cold temperatures today from the low 20s northeast to the low 30s southwest.
318 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 Key Messages: - Snow Chances and Temperatures Today - Warmer on Sunday - Potentially Active Work Week The 18. 00z models are in fairly good agreement that a 500 mb trough will move southeast across the area today. The combination of this trough, cyclonic flow aloft, and steep 900-850 mb lapse rates will continue to produce scattered snow showers across the area for much of today. From late tonight into Sunday, upper level ridging will build across the region. This will result in more sunshine and west and southwest winds bringing warmer air into the region. This will result in high temperatures ranging from the lower 30s to lower 40s.
425 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023 (Today through Sunday) As the morning begins, a cold front is positioned over south and east-central Georgia and will continue to move southeast through the morning before stalling over the northern Florida peninsula. Temperatures are not expected to reach freezing to the south of I-85, staying in the upper 30s to mid 40s in central Georgia. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low 50s across the majority of the area, and mid to upper 50s in east-central Georgia.
Afternoon highs on Sunday are only expected to reach into the lower 60s for everyone.
1136 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Cooler than normal weather sticks around through the weekend, with wind chills overnight expected to be near or below zero north of I-72 with values in the single digits south of there. Clearing has just about made its way to the IL/IN state line just after 2 pm as surface ridging continues to nose further eastward. A 500 mb upper trough will swing through the Great Lakes Region later today, pushing a lobe of vorticity through central IL tonight. Surface ridging slides into the area on Sunday, though temperatures will still be cold to close out the weekend.
Warmer temperature begin to return on Sunday and continue to warm through the upcoming week.
1146 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 00Z upper air plots place an upper level low over Lake Superior and embedded within a broad upper level trough that encompasses much of the Continental United States. Meanwhile, surface analysis depicts a cold front from the Appalachian Mountains into the Central Gulf of Mexico and a secondary cold front stretching from the Great Lakes Region back through Northwest Missouri and into the Central Plains late this evening. This should allow for temperatures to approach freezing a bit further south and the existing Freeze Warning for tonight now includes areas from Panola County over to Itawamba County.
610 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 (Today and tonight) The CWA remains on the southwestern periphery of an expansive baroclinic cyclone centered over southern Ontario. At the surface, a weakening cold front was crossing into the TX PH as of 0725Z, and will continue to propagate southward throughout the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon as a 1032 mb anticyclone shifts eastward. With the CWA on the western periphery of the entrance region to the mid- and high-level jet streaks rounding the base of the baroclinic cyclone, the cirrus deck will continue to advect northeastward overhead this afternoon. Therefore, temperatures will be similar to yesterday to perhaps a couple of degrees warmer.
As of the time of this writing, a secondary push of cooler air is moving across the Panhandles. Winds will turn southerly early Sunday morning and some warmer air will begin to move in over the area.
Locations along and inland from the Treasure Coast will have the lowest chance of seeing any showers today and most there will remain dry. Areas north of I-4 will remain in the lower 80s. Overnight lows cooler than the previous night, falling into the 50s.
Thankfully, weak upper-level ridging takes hold of the Intermountain West on Sunday, ushering the cold air aloft further east. Most locations will see highs in the 40s to mid 50s! A weak disturbance within the ridge will also lead to some blustery conditions on Sunday as gradients tighten along and west of the Laramie Range. Overall, Sunday looks like the better day this weekend despite the wind, because of sunny skies and warmer temperatures.
As the upper trough axis shifts eastward tonight and Sunday, a reinforcing region of cold air will move southeastward over the region with very cold air tonight and Sunday. Discussion: We will remain under a deep eastern US trough aloft as an upper low over the Great Lakes moves slowly northeast. Temperatures today will struggle to get much higher than the mid 40s to lower 50s in most valley locations, then tonight's lows will be some 15+ degrees below normal and will be in the lower to mid 20s in most valley locations while teens will be common in the higher terrain.
(Rest of Today) After a chilly night of near to just below freezing temperatures, sunshine this morning has warmed up temperatures into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Despite, the sunshine, northerly flow holds afternoon highs in the lower 50s, but with winds this afternoon gusting 20-25 mph it will feel quite brisk outside today.
The low clouds are showing signs of expanding east into the Umpqua Basin and we expect low clouds to form there towards daybreak.
Expecting temperatures to remain above freezing, so precip should remain liquid today. With overcast skies, temperatures have remained in the lower 40s across Crockett, Sutton and Kimble counties. We should see afternoon highs reaching only into the 50s, and overnight lows dropping to just above freezing by Sunday morning.
There is not a cloud in the sky over the Lower and Middle Keys. To our south, there is increased moisture south of Cuba producing showers, and to our north there is a cold front draped over the Florida Peninsula also producing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure centered to the southeast of Bermuda has continued to edge farther east, and winds have become more southerly at the surface. High pressure centered southeast of Bermuda will continue to slide eastward this afternoon, allowing southeast to south breezes to decrease further. A stalling cold front and unsettled weather will sag into the Florida Keys tonight and Sunday.
afternoon temperatures look to only warm into the upper 30s in far Northwest Arkansas to the low/mid 40s for the majority of the rest of the CWA.
327 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2023 The core of the upper low has finally made it's way into the U. The upper ridge over Western CONUS is also slowly moving southeast, bringing northwest flow aloft to the Tri-State area through the weekend. High temperatures will be slightly cooler today with values in to the mid 30s to lower 40s. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper single digits to mid teens tonight with wind chills possibly dropping into the lower single digits above and below zero. Overnight lows are also warmer tomorrow night with temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s.
(Today through Sunday) As the morning begins, a cold front is positioned over south and east-central Georgia and will continue to move southeast through the morning before stalling over the northern Florida peninsula. Temperatures are not expected to reach freezing to the south of I-85, staying in the upper 30s to mid 40s in central Georgia. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low 50s across the majority of the area, and mid to upper 50s in east-central Georgia.
Max temps today will be in the lower 70s north and 80s elsewhere, with higher values across the interior. Behind the front, we are anticipating a cooler air to filter into the area with Sunday morning lows in the mid 40s north to lower 60s south. A cold front will move across the area today increasing rain chances with some thunderstorms are possible.
A cold front will move across the area today increasing rain chances with some thunderstorms are possible. Afternoon highs on Sunday are only expected to reach into the lower 60s for everyone.
Light snow showers and flurries continue early this morning across eastern MN and WI as a large upper low spins over the Great Lakes. Lows tonight will again drop into the single digits area wide, but some negative values are possible under the ridge axis in western MN.
404 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2023 1) Calmer weather over the plains today, with scattered snow showers over parts of the higher terrain this afternoon. With the upper-low ejected to our east, northwest flow aloft will continue to sit over our area today, mostly over the eastern plains, while winds over the higher terrain remain a bit weaker and disorganized. The current forecast anticipates light accumulations at the lower elevations along the slopes, with a good 4-6 inches on the peaks by Sunday morning. Low temperatures across most of the forecast area will be in the teens, with the higher peaks getting closer to zero.
Key Messages: * An unseasonably cool start to the weekend with many locations likely not climbing above freezing this afternoon.
801 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023 Lingering showers mainly this morning across the southeast Midlands as a cold front moves toward the coast.