Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level low over the midwest spins as it gradually tracks eastward. Temperatures remain mild this evening and overnight with lows falling into the low to mid 40s. Similar conditions are expected Friday as the upper level low over the midwest moves eastward while another upper level low over Canada dips into the northeast. Temperatures on Friday will be slightly cooler, but still above normal, with highs in the mid to upper 40s. However, forecast soundings show drier air working in aloft as ridging starts to build into the Northeast U. Something to watch is that there may be enough low level moisture that gets trapped under the strengthening subsidence inversion for some pockets of freezing drizzle to develop Saturday evening, but confidence is too low to add to the forecast at this time.
Temperatures in the low to mid 30s this morning are forecast rebound into the upper 50s to low 60s for highs today. Given the southwest flow, warmer high temperatures are forecast Saturday, in the mid 60s to around 70.
Though many will not see much impact at all from this snow event, perhaps not even much accumulation, where the snow rates are high enough and the low level temps cool enough quick accumulations could create some slick conditions on area roadways. While conditions should be largely dry Friday afternoon, it isn't until subsidence associated with a high pressure ridge arrives Friday night that chances for precipitation completely cut off.
Gusty north winds follow this cold front passage, with gusts up to 35 mph possible much of Saturday afternoon.
- Cold front moves through the region Saturday into Saturday night, ushering in cold air for the end of 2023 and beginning of 2024. Behind this cold front, we will see noticably colder temperatures.
(This afternoon through Friday) A closed low is catching up with the rest of the upper level flow and is set to bring the dreaded 540mb line south of the Mason-Dixon line. As a result, temps are expected to fall below freezing for a large part of the CWA tonight. The impact to the morning commute will likely be minimal and localized to the higher elevations. Daytime highs on Friday and Saturday are set to rise into the mid 40s with some low 40s across the NE but it's unlikely that any snow will stick around outside of the shadows and at the highest elevations.
1051 PM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 Key Messages: - Slightly warmer on Friday. the upper pattern will continue to be dominated by the large area of low pressure drifting from Missouri into the Ohio Valley. As the upper low drifts eastward, the gradient will begin to relax across the region, with light winds forecast overnight. The upper low will continue to pull away from the area as high pressure begins to build in from the west on Friday. Large upper trough will span much of the eastern half of the CONUS, while a period of upper ridging is anticipated across the region into the weekend. This upper ridging and backing flow will support warming on Saturday, with above normal temperatures well into the 50s likely across the plains.
(Today and tonight) An H5 trough will be pushing through the region today. This helps keep temperatures on the cooler side of normal with daytime highs struggling to reach the lower to middle 50s. Lows tonight are forecast to tumble to near freezing for much of the region away from the immediate coast.
1112 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 (This evening through Saturday) The prominent upper cyclone that's been parked to our N is finally beginning to slowly push Ewrd, although sat/rad mosaics show persistent lingering cloud cover area wide and spotty snow showers across the NW. As a mid-level vort max rotates around the parent cyclone this evening into tonight, modest forcing for ascent will support continued light rain/snow showers -- mainly over Nrn/Ern sections -- with minimal if any accumulation expected and travel impacts remaining unlikely. By tomorrow, the upper cyclone will begin accelerating to the E with any lingering precip gone by afternoon.
This setup will result in efficient radiational cooling with lows falling below freezing across nearly all of the CWA. Mostly clear, dry and cold conditions are expected Friday night with lows falling back to freezing or slightly below. This warm-up is attributed to the transient upper ridge moving from west to east, allowing for surface winds to become southerly throughout the region.
/SEC (This afternoon through Friday) A closed low is catching up with the rest of the upper level flow and is set to bring the dreaded 540mb line south of the Mason-Dixon line. As a result, temps are expected to fall below freezing for a large part of the CWA tonight. The impact to the morning commute will likely be minimal and localized to the higher elevations. Daytime highs on Friday and Saturday are set to rise into the mid 40s with some low 40s across the NE but it's unlikely that any snow will stick around outside of the shadows and at the highest elevations.
The large upper low that has had a significant impact on our dry and overall benign pattern will rotate south and east out of the Midwest and towards the eastern seaboard through the day today. This will allow upper level flow to become northwesterly through the day and into the overnight hours as upper level ridging continues to build out to our west ahead of the next troughing regime. Overnight lows for much of the area won't be quite as chilly as this morning but many places will still likely see temperatures below freezing.
A weakening cold front will move across the area early this morning, with a dry and cool air mass following behind it.
1022 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 (This evening through Friday) Northwest flow aloft will prevail over the forecast area as the upper level trough continues to dominate over the Plains region. Over the next 24 hours the upper level trough is expected to shift slightly to the east allowing upper level ridging to begin its track into the region from the west. 850mb temperatures 3 to 5 degrees warmer than previous days, in addition to increasing thickness heights and abundant sunshine will allow temperatures tomorrow to warm up into the mid to upper 50s.
147 AM MST Fri Dec 29 2023 Key Messages: - High Pressure will keep quiet weather over Western and Central WY through the weekend.
(Through Tonight) Another cool day is on tap for today across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as upper low slowly drops south across the eastern half of the country. CLouds will keep temperatures mostly below normal again today with highs ranging from near 50 across southeast Oklahoma to the low 40s or even upper 30s across northwest Arkansas where clouds hang tight through the daytime hours.
1014 PM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 A strong and amplified ridge of high pressure continues to shelter the state from precipitation and active weather over the next few days. The main exception to the warmer temperatures will be the Wind River and Upper Green River Basins, where cold air has caused the development of deep cold pools/inversions.
142 AM MST Fri Dec 29 2023 Ridge of High Pressure will keep things relatively quiet through the weekend.
122 AM MST Fri Dec 29 2023 Quiet weather is in store for the next couple of days with upper ridging in place over the region. STP Split flow over the western US will keep the area mainly dry, with high pressure over the region, and Pacific waves crossing the southern US.
A large upper level low continues to rotate through the midwest bringing easterly flow across the region along with bands of moisture that will bring periods of light rain/drizzle through southern Michigan. as the low moves eastward, opens into a deepening trough and a positively tilted ridge will build over the region into early Saturday -- Warm and Dry Saturday -- The before-mentioned upper level ridge will build over the region Saturday and will continue the warmer than normal temperatures.
1019 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2023 An upper trough will linger over the area though late week, with a mainly dry front moving through Friday.
Broad upper level troughing sits over the eastern half of the U. On the surface, the cold front that moved through the area yesterday continues to move through southern Florida. A series of short waves and dry cold fronts move north of the area over the next couple of days. This will keep cooler weather and rain-free conditions over the area through the weekend.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Temperatures across the region have fallen to the 20s and low 30s this morning, so make sure to grab a heavy coat as you head out the door! There will only be a slight warm up this afternoon as the large upper level low only barely pushes eastward today, and upper ridging begins to take its hold over New Mexico and Texas. Temperatures take a tumble again tonight with efficient radiational cooling given light winds and clear skies, so another morning of below-freezing temperatures is expected area-wide. The upper low will finally sweep up into the Northeast on Saturday and the axis of the upper ridge sets up over the Plains, pushing temperatures above normal for the first time since Christmas Eve.
-KT Key Messages: - Slightly warmer on Friday. the upper pattern will continue to be dominated by the large area of low pressure drifting from Missouri into the Ohio Valley. As the upper low drifts eastward, the gradient will begin to relax across the region, with light winds forecast overnight. The upper low will continue to pull away from the area as high pressure begins to build in from the west on Friday. Large upper trough will span much of the eastern half of the CONUS, while a period of upper ridging is anticipated across the region into the weekend. This upper ridging and backing flow will support warming on Saturday, with above normal temperatures well into the 50s likely across the plains.
The sunny skies are welcome during the day, allowing daytime highs to reach into the low to mid 60s today and in the upper 60s to low 70s for Saturday. Like the previous forecast package, the Canadian was once again significantly cooler than other models. Even so, most locations still look to be in the mid to upper 30s, with a good chance that some locations over the northern tier of counties could see freezing temperatures.
1053 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 (This evening through Friday) The occluded mid-latitude cyclone/cutoff low that has been the primary weather influence across the Plains and Midwest continues to cyclonically spin across Indiana as it slowly drifts to the east. Any precipitation amounts will be light with no travel impacts (temperatures are above freezing).
- A cold front will slide through the Northern Plains Saturday afternoon, cooling temperatures to near seasonable and introducing chilly wind chills to the area. Highs should be mid 30s to lower 40s with the cooler readings over the snow cover. Saturday afternoon a cold front will move through the area, resulting in a brief period of gustier winds.
Dry, tranquil conditions and warmer temperatures are anticipated through Saturday.
Slightly warmer on New Years Eve with winds out the west.
121 AM MST Fri Dec 29 2023 Quiet weather is in store for the next couple of days with upper ridging in place over the region. STP Split flow over the western US will keep the area mainly dry, with high pressure over the region, and Pacific waves crossing the southern US.
Tonight through Saturday: Upper level narrow ridge of high pressure reaches peak of amplification Friday with ridge axis positioned more or less over Northwest Montana. The southerly flow on the west side of this upper level ridge axis will continue to stream middle and upper level moisture overhead suggesting cloud cover of varying intensity will persist but not enough to moisten the lower levels and suggest pops for precipitation, with perhaps the exception of locations within close proximity of the Cascade Crest.
1100 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2023 Expect cooler temperatures going into the weekend with the potential for light mountain snow Friday and Saturday.
A large upper level low, centered over southern Illinois, will move east-southeast into eastern Kentucky Saturday afternoon. With an upper ridge extending from the Desert Southwest into the northern Rockies, northwest to north flow aloft will continue over our area.
By early this morning, the reinforcing dry trough that we've been mentioning the last few days will be working through the region. High temperatures today and tomorrow will generally range in the 50s, with lows tonight dropping below freezing area-wide. These freezing temperatures will likely also result in widespread frost into this morning, and tomorrow morning as well. /44/ (Saturday Night through Friday) For the second half of the weekend, through the shortened New Year holiday week and the first week of 2024, we will be looking at very progressive westerly flow across the Lower 48. A longwave trough, entering the Four Corners Region of the Country Sat Night will quickly fill as it ejects out into the Southern Plains New Year's Eve Night into New Year's Day.
1220 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023 Expect cooler temperatures going into the weekend with the potential for light mountain snow Friday and Saturday.
(Today and tonight) The upper low currently over the Ohio River Valley will be kicked eastward into the Appalachians late this afternoon as upper level ridging moves into the Midwest/Great Lakes. This will help to warm highs into the mid/upper 50s, a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
Also noted is enhanced Clarks Fork drainage (temps already in the teens at Cowley & Lovell), and we are seeing gusts into the lower 30s (mph) at the Billings airport. It's already in the lower 20s at Hardin and along the Tongue River. Upper ridging is the dominating weather pattern, keeping temperatures ~10 degrees above normal (low to mid 40s) but relatively light winds with weak, embedded waves passing through. A weak frontal passage will occur this evening, shifting winds to the northwest but not bringing any cooler temperatures with it.
250 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 - Temperatures to remain cooler than recent record setting values, but remain generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
Temps tnt should remain above freezing for se WI but fall below freezing just north and west of Madison. Dry for Saturday with lgt wly winds developing ahead of low pressure approaching from the nrn Great Lakes.
Finally, colder air arrives overnight as a weak cold front slides southeast across the region. Rain will begin to transition to snow, tapering off towards the higher summits.
This clears out Sat night, then late Sun night the next trough is lined up. The prolonged southerly wind that has finally reached the surface will bring in milder air and so expect some much warmer temperatures, especially by Sat. Weak troughs mean weak winds, with nothing significant in spite of the number moving through.
526 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 - Temperatures to remain cooler than recent record setting values, but remain generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
Trough energy just off the west coast this morning will continue it's eastward progression through this afternoon, which will help to kick the ridge axis currently over the NV east into UT. Most of northern and central NV have clear skies tonight, however mid and high clouds out ahead of the approaching trough will spread over the CWA from west to east today with NV under a warm southwesterly flow aloft.
There is a minor surge occurring as the air mass behind the cold front is finally arriving.
Rest of the day will see full sun in E ND and RRV and highs above freezing. Temps near 40 in SE ND where ice accumulations were the highest from the past storm.
514 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Temperatures across the region have fallen to the 20s and low 30s this morning, so make sure to grab a heavy coat as you head out the door! There will only be a slight warm up this afternoon as the large upper level low only barely pushes eastward today, and upper ridging begins to take its hold over New Mexico and Texas. Temperatures take a tumble again tonight with efficient radiational cooling given light winds and clear skies, so another morning of below-freezing temperatures is expected area-wide. The upper low will finally sweep up into the Northeast on Saturday and the axis of the upper ridge sets up over the Plains, pushing temperatures above normal for the first time since Christmas Eve.
Upper- level ridging allows for warm and dry conditions to persist through the end of 2023.
/NEW/ Update: The day is off to a mostly clear and cold start with many locations at or below freezing as of 5 AM. This setup will result in efficient radiational cooling with lows falling below freezing across nearly all of the CWA. Mostly clear, dry and cold conditions are expected Friday night with lows falling back to freezing or slightly below. This warm-up is attributed to the transient upper ridge moving from west to east, allowing for surface winds to become southerly throughout the region.
515 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 -Temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s to start the weekend, before a dry cold front passes Saturday night.
509 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper low currently over the Ohio River Valley will be kicked eastward into the Appalachians late this afternoon as upper level ridging moves into the Midwest/Great Lakes. This will help to warm highs into the mid/upper 50s, a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
Temperatures will again be much warmer than average today.
600 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023 Aviation Continued low-level troughing and lift over southern MI and IN/OH, underneath the resident upper-level low, will maintain low clouds and occasional drizzle or light rain showers through this evening.
455 AM MST Fri Dec 29 2023 Northwest flow aloft today and Saturday downstream of a ridge axis over the Rockies.
907 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023 The cold front is just to the south of the area this morning, with NW flow starting to increase.
613 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023 (Today and tonight) An H5 trough will be pushing through the region today. This helps keep temperatures on the cooler side of normal with daytime highs struggling to reach the lower to middle 50s. Lows tonight are forecast to tumble to near freezing for much of the region away from the immediate coast.
/Lukinbeal High pressure will continue to build over the Northern Rockies, with stable and stagnant conditions leading to areas of valley fog and stratus. The high pressure ridge axis will shift eastward across western Montana this afternoon. The Pacific trough will push onshore tonight into Saturday morning, with the ridge axis moving into central MT.
However westerly winds will develop with the passage of a weakening boundary and this will open the door to finally allow a cooler airmass into the region. A cold front will cross the region on Saturday and a more seasonable airmass will be ushered in.
425 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Today and Tonight: The upper low located in the Midwest will slowly make its way east. Behind this upper low is a well-defined ridge axis that will push east across the western CONUS. This will allow for the positively tilted trough axis to push southeast across the southeast region. Due to the increased ascent associated with this trough axis, intermittent cloud cover along with the chance for isolated sprinkles will occur primarily in the northeastern portion of the CWA by this afternoon. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the low 50s across the area. Global guidance shows the trough axis exiting our CWA by this evening as the upper low tracks east towards the Carolinas. Heading into the overnight period, the upper low will begin to shift northeast towards the Upper East Coast.
(Today and tonight) Less cloud cover expected today with transient mid-high level cloud cover possible in northwest/northerly flow on backside of departing upper low.
Models continue to indicate a high amplitude ridge axis at 500mb drifting east into the Intermountain West and Rocky Mountain region for Friday and Saturday.
Lows in the lower 30s are forecast tonight, up a few degrees from previous to account for a gentle breeze and overcast skies moving in from the west. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s most areas, with low 50s possible across the south where some sun will creep in.
- A cold front will drop south through the area tonight. Perhaps a little warmer far south central into the JRV, and a little cooler far north. This looks to be a dry cold front as it traverses the forecast area tonight as the mid and upper level forcing trails the surface cold front. It may be breezy at times over eastern portions of central ND behind the cold front. Overnight lows tonight range from the lower teens to lower 20s. On Saturday, as mid and upper level trough drops south over western Minnesota, there may be enough forcing to eek out a flurry or snow shower around the Turtle Mountains into the James River Valley.
533 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 (Through Tonight) Another cool day is on tap for today across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as upper low slowly drops south across the eastern half of the country. CLouds will keep temperatures mostly below normal again today with highs ranging from near 50 across southeast Oklahoma to the low 40s or even upper 30s across northwest Arkansas where clouds hang tight through the daytime hours.
The high pressure ridge axis will shift eastward across western Montana this afternoon. The Pacific trough will push onshore tonight into Saturday morning, with the ridge axis moving into central MT.
518 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Today and Tonight: The upper low located in the Midwest will slowly make its way east. Behind this upper low is a well-defined ridge axis that will push east across the western CONUS. This will allow for the positively tilted trough axis to push southeast across the southeast region. Due to the increased ascent associated with this trough axis, intermittent cloud cover along with the chance for isolated sprinkles will occur primarily in the northeastern portion of the CWA by this afternoon. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the low 50s across the area. Global guidance shows the trough axis exiting our CWA by this evening as the upper low tracks east towards the Carolinas. Heading into the overnight period, the upper low will begin to shift northeast towards the Upper East Coast.
533 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 (Today and tonight) Less cloud cover expected today with transient mid-high level cloud cover possible in northwest/northerly flow on backside of departing upper low.
224 AM MST Fri Dec 29 2023 Northwest flow aloft today and Saturday downstream of a ridge axis over the Rockies.
355 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 -Temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s to start the weekend, before a dry cold front passes Saturday night.
Snow levels will drop below the higher northern Sierra passes this evening, and will be down to around 5500 feet by Saturday morning. Around 4-8 inches of snow accumulation are forecast for the passes with 12-18 inches over the higher peaks. Showers, and a perhaps a few thunderstorms, will linger into Saturday morning as the upper trough moves through, then dwindling precipitation chances are expected for the remainder of the weekend through New Year's.
Finally, colder air arrives Friday night as a weak cold front slides southeast across the region. Rain will begin to transition to snow, tapering off towards the higher summits.
427 AM MST Fri Dec 29 2023 Key Messages: - High Pressure will keep quiet weather over Western and Central WY through the weekend.
344 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023 A low pressure trough moves southeast across the area tonight and tomorrow.