Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
606 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend. Any river valley fog will burn off after sunrise, and another dry day is on tap courtesy of a strong area of high pressure. High temperatures today will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, generally around 70 degrees. However, with a warmer air mass in place, not expecting any frost formation tonight.
Neither of these areas of ongoing convection will impact us due to the building high pressure limiting favorable indices.
We do not expect these to last very long though with the low-level jet weakening around sunrise. A weak cold front, currently across Kansas, will experience frontolysis (dissipate) and have no impact on our weather. Model consensus for this afternoon is ~21 deg C at Norman/OUN, so some locations might be slightly warmer than yesterday with a little eastward expansion of the low-level thermal ridge.
736 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Expansive high pressure over the area will bring continued dry weather with seasonable temperatures. Otherwise, temperatures remain in the low 30s for portions of the northern Adirondacks including Saranac Lake, where a Frost Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM this morning. Continued subsidence under the high will keep us dry and have continued with zero PoPs through Thursday.
The pattern finally breaks on Thursday, as broad ridging builds in over the Great Lakes region through the weekend, leading to well- above normal temperatures into the first week of October.
The higher terrain in these counties was likely in the low stratus and conditions should continue to improve through 15z when the SPS expires. By Thursday night, a trough will begin digging into the west CONUS. Southwestern low pressure may become cut-off during the weekend.
510 AM MDT Wed Sep 27 2023 We'll have another quiet day today as the upper ridge axis moves over Colorado. Forecast highs are a couple degrees warmer and look good.
Upper level ridge remains in place over the Rockies today, with little change in the air mass across southern Colorado. Max temps will climb to within a degf or two of yesterday's readings, with warmest readings in the lower Arkansas Valley from Canon City east to the KS border. Clear skies and dry air will lead to cool overnight mins tonight, though most high valleys will stay just above the freezing mark once again. Ensembles tend to support the ECMWF solution, which is slower and develops an upper low over the Desert Southwest.
1009 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Expansive high pressure over the area will bring continued dry weather with seasonable temperatures. Continued subsidence under the high will keep us dry and have continued with zero PoPs through Thursday.
Unsettled weather continues across the FL peninsula as an upper- level trough remains stretched across the region. Considering the environment and eventual erosion of the low-level inversion, there should be additional convection to develop later today. The extra moisture hangs around through the end of the work week as the upper level trough that has been over the area remains. The upper level trough begins to lift over the weekend as a ridge moves in.
248 AM PDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Today will be a little warmer. A cooling trend will begin on Thursday with the weekend much cooler.
555 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather for today and Thursday, along with seasonable temperatures.
The Inland Northwest should anticipate periodic rain, breezy winds, and cooler than normal temperatures. The cold front will usher in breezy southwest winds later this morning with gusts up to 30 mph in the southern half of WA/ID Panhandle. This low will quickly move through North Central Washington and into SE BC late this afternoon. Weak to moderate forcing from an upper low over Vancouver Island moving southeast combined with marginal surface based instability explain the thunder chances.
Today: Water vapor movie loops showed the compact upper low was centered near the Quad Cities and was drifting eastward. Models take this low into northwest Indiana by this evening. Tonight: With the upper low and associated trough pushing into the Ohio Valley we can finally put an end to the pcpn for a while. Key messages: 1) Dry weather going into the first week of October 2) Well above normal temperatures Global models similar in developing an Omega Block across the CONUS with a big ridge in the center of the nation.
1019 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Dry and seasonable weather will persist through Thursday with high pressure in control.
916 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather for today and Thursday, along with seasonable temperatures.
625 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather for today and Thursday, along with seasonable temperatures.
945 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend. Prev Discussion: Another dry day is on tap courtesy of a strong area of high pressure. High temperatures today will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, generally around 70 degrees. However, with a warmer air mass in place, not expecting any frost formation tonight.
This will continue this morning through the evening, until a weak pressure trough helps pushed low level moisture to the south and east. Due to this, it will take minimal forcing for updrafts to develop including phenomena like low level confluent bands, outflow boundaries and weak surface or elevated troughs. The few consistent sources of lift look to be a more established pressure trough that will set up over SW central Indiana later today, and greater lift within the low itself.
911 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Variably cloudy and warmer today with no rainfall expected through tonight.
714 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Variably cloudy and warmer today with no rainfall expected through tonight.
721 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Dry and seasonable weather will persist through Thursday with high pressure in control.
651 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 A few rain showers remain possible today as troughing aloft establishes to our west. A return to cooler conditions through the weekend will occur as high pressure builds southward east of the Appalachians. This will work to push slightly cooler temperatures into the area with slightly drier air moving into the central Midlands this afternoon and pushing southward into the CSRA this evening. High temperatures today will be in the mid 70s with lows tonight in the low 60s. Guidance still indicating that surface ridging will be in place across the area in association with a strong high pressure system centered over southeastern Canada. We'll have a 500 hPa trough axis slowly moving east and through the area on Thursday; despite this, no precipitation is expected.
Quasi-zonal flow forms Thursday as the trough moves east and spreads out.
636 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 (Wednesday through Thursday) Ridging aloft will continue to become more influential throughout the remainder of this week, resulting in above normal temperatures and disappearing rain chances.
A dry cold front will move into northern Utah late today into Thursday. The next storm system is expected to arrive by this weekend, bringing widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures.
354 AM MDT Wed Sep 27 2023 We'll have another quiet day today as the upper ridge axis moves over Colorado. Forecast highs are a couple degrees warmer and look good.
642 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather for today and Thursday, along with seasonable temperatures.
Muscha (Today through Thursday night) Today still has weak eastward drifting ridging across the panhandles. The weak nature of the ridge will allow subtle perturbations in the flow to pass across the panhandles. The big change for Thursday will be the increased pressure gradient cause by a deepening low pressure over SW CONUS. Temperatures under the ridge will remain on the hot side with highs in the low 90s.
1232 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather for today and Thursday, along with seasonable temperatures.
Most locations have already made it into the lower 90s, and will likely top out in the mid and possibly upper 90s today. Expect mostly clear skies and light winds tonight, as high pressure will settle over the region. Overnight lows will once again fall into the mid to upper 60s, with a few isolated locations in the lower 60s.
Upper level ridging is expected to begin building in over the area on Thursday, resulting in a mainly dry forecast and a degree or two of warming across the area. With upper level ridging still influencing our weather however, not looking at much in the way of any appreciable rainfall. Highs will be generally be in the lower 90s, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
1159 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend. Prev Discussion: Another dry day is on tap courtesy of a strong area of high pressure. High temperatures today will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, generally around 70 degrees. However, with a warmer air mass in place, not expecting any frost formation tonight.
Mainly morning showers will taper off today, with the highest probability in southwest Oregon.
353 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 More of the same tonight with the upper level low to our south continuing to send low level moisture northward into northern Michigan.
(This evening through Thursday) Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low pressure system over the Great Lakes and a ridge of high pressure extending back to far West Texas giving way to north-westerly flow aloft. The upper low and weak ridge over the Great Plains will move eastward while the high seems to dissipate. Wind speeds tomorrow will remain southerly but will ramp up in speed to 15 to 20 mph on the Caprock due to flow around a mid to upper level trough to the northwest of the region.
211 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Variably cloudy and warmer today with no rainfall expected through tonight.
312 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure remains largely in control over northern New England through the end of week.
235 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 At the upper levels, a ridge axis currently extends from southwest North Dakota, northeast into the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains with a broad western CONUS trough to the west of the state. At the surface, a weak low pressure center is located over southeast Montana with a weak frontal boundary extending to the north. Thursday's highs will be similar to today, just a touch cooler in the west and a touch warmer in the east, ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Deep moisture continues to stream across the FL peninsula as an elongated trough axis continues to advect a tropical airmass across the state.
206 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 A slow moving upper low will bring a few additional scattered showers and storms to portions of central Illinois through this evening, then precip chances will focus along the I-70 corridor overnight near a stationary front.
/20/ (Wednesday through Thursday) Ridging aloft will continue to become more influential throughout the remainder of this week, resulting in above normal temperatures and disappearing rain chances.
Initially, we were concerned low clouds may stick around enough to impact the high temperature forecast, but now it appears that we should have enough of a window to reach our forecast highs for most locations. The higher terrain in these counties was likely in the low stratus and conditions should continue to improve through 15z when the SPS expires. By Thursday night, a trough will begin digging into the west CONUS. Southwestern low pressure may become cut-off during the weekend.
Looking upstream, Quarter Mountain at 5860 feet in western Washington showed temperatures at the freezing mark early this afternoon. On Thursday, the region will be under a cool upper level trough.
316 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Variably cloudy and warmer today with no rainfall expected through tonight.
313 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Occluded low parked over Illinois unlocks and begins to move eastward into the overnight hours as a broad wavelength Pacific trough gradually translates across the Intermountain West. Deeper column saturation arrives overnight as the low tracks into far southern Lower Michigan offering expanding coverage of rain. Ridge amplification commences across The Plains and Upper Midwest Thursday while low pressure is slow to exit stage left into southern Ontario and Lake Erie.
The lower-level WV channel (#10) highlights some drier air across the Straits, probably complemented by subsidence downstream from a large MCS just south of the Isle of Youth. Despite the cloud cover, some of the warmer locations reached 90 degrees.
A second, stronger upper low approaches the area later Thursday afternoon, with rain chances increasing from south to north.
The subtropical ridge will build back over Texas and subsidence from the ridge will suppress any chance for convection through the rest of the short term.
The 12Z synoptic analysis shows the trough moving in over the Pacific Northwest and the low still over the Great Lakes region, with ridging still in place over the Desert Southwest and central Rockies with the ridge axis over Colorado. We'll have another quiet day today as the upper ridge axis moves over Colorado. Forecast highs are a couple degrees warmer and look good.
/12 (Now through Thursday) A nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain just offshore out over the Gulf tonight through Thursday, while at the mid and upper levels troughing will maintain a mostly southwesterly flow aloft. The majority of the CAMs indicate that the higher rain chances should remain offshore through Thursday.
This will put our highs in the low to mid 90s, which is more than 5 degrees above normal for this time of the year. With upper level ridging still influencing our weather however, not looking at much in the way of any appreciable rainfall. Highs will be generally be in the lower 90s, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
258 PM MDT Wed Sep 27 2023 In the wake of last night's cold front, cooler conditions were found over the area today. Winds will increase along the western foothills this afternoon, ahead of a cold front that will push through the area this evening. Cooler conditions remain in place on Thursday as heights lower in response to large scale troughing over the western US.
The forecast otherwise remains on track with partly cloudy skies and high in the low to mid 90s F expected. Lows tonight will be a bit cooler than we saw this morning, about 1-3 degrees cooler for most. We will be more on the back side of the upper-level trough currently over the Midwest. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will continue to build southwestward from the southern Appalachians and turn low- level flow out of the east as we head into tonight. A low pressure system off the Florida Panhandle will organize rain chances at the Gulf Coast today, but it looks like the drier air north of the Coast will prevail with only a slight chance for a shower or storm in far southeast MS.
Overnight, the upper level low driving the convection to our north continues to move further to the east.
A mainly dry cold front crossing southeast Oregon this morning will continue east across southwest Idaho this afternoon.
A cold front will begin to push into northwestern Wyoming this evening. Accordingly, Thursday will see cooler highs across the board, most notably along and north of the stalled front.
Closed upper level low continues to slowly push eastward across the lower Great Lakes this afternoon. A weak surface reflection is noted in observations centered just northwest of the forecast area, with a warm front draped across our far north, and a weak stationary front extended west/southwest from the low into the lower Missouri valley. Overnight, shower and storm coverage will lessen significantly, although may not entirely dissipate, and this threat may continue into Thursday across the eastern half of the area before the low exits the region completely.
141 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Cloudy skies with below normal temperatures will persist through the end of the week as a strong area of high pressure remains to our north. While temps are a bit warmer to the south, the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain are still running about 10 degrees below normal for late September. Temps tonight will fall into the low 50s in the north. Temps will be warmer than today although still below normal with highs ranging from the upper 60s in the north to the mid 70s in the south.
145 PM MDT Wed Sep 27 2023 The trough over to our northwest will continue to slowly advance and the low to our northeast may do so as well. There will be an increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the trough, probably pushing into northwest Colorado but likely not into our area yet, so weak flow aloft to persist. Yet warmer everywhere, generally 10 to 15 F warmer than normal across the plains and valleys, to near normal in sparse areas above 9000 feet.
148 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure over New England will build southward slowly over the next few days, wedging against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians, and bringing abundant cloud cover, patchy light rainfall and below normal temperatures.
With the high PWAT values, storms will be capable of high rainfall rates, thus localized urban flooding will remain a threat. High temps today and Thursday will generally be in the upper 80s, and low temps tonight will range from the lower 70s around the lake to mid and upper 70s elsewhere.
113 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Expansive high pressure over the area will bring continued dry weather with seasonable temperatures. Continued subsidence under the high will keep us dry and have continued with zero PoPs through Thursday.
Expect another round of valley fog tonight, though not quite as widespread due to warmer temperatures. Conditions Thursday and Thursday night will be very similar, but 3-5 degrees warmer as flow becomes a bit more southeasterly.
An upper level low is currently located across Illinois this afternoon. Energy from the low is currently moving south across Missouri, west of the low. Some isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder have developed as lift from the low that is spreading south across the area moves over the weak instability. As the low moves east this convection will end from west to east. An upper level ridge and a warm airmass will build over the region on Thursday.
A low-level ridge is present but some slight weakness in the ridge exists at 500 mb over portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Temperatures are on track to reach mostly the lower 90s this afternoon.
Discussion: An upper low continues to rotate across Illinois this afternoon placing the region within diffluent upper flow. The upper low moves into the Great Lakes tonight and on Thursday with the region still within cyclonic flow. Discussion: We begin the period with a closed low to our north across the Ohio River Valley and a trough axis centered through our area.
The upper-level ridge over northern Mexico will edge a bit further north this afternoon. Thunderstorms are going to be largely confined to the higher elevations as a result with the exception of a thunderstorm or two along the lower Tran Pecos.
A cooling trend will begin Thursday with the weekend much cooler.
As the upper level low slowly tracks to the east we move back into northwest flow, chances for showers diminish through Thursday morning.
1020 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 (Issued 1020 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023) Rain will continue across much of eastern Wisconsin this morning as the weak low pressure system in northern Illinois continues to gradually move east into southern lower Michigan. Until the low pressure system, reaches southern lower Michigan it is likely that this waterspout risk will continue. Patterson (Issued 356 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023) Today and Tonight: The main story of the day is the continued scattered showers and isolated storms as the upper low centered over northern Illinois shifts into northern Indiana. Persistent upglide in cyclonic flow around the upper low continues to develop bands of showers with a few embedded storms.
306 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 (This evening through Thursday) At the time of this writing, a wedge of high pressure remains in place along the lee side of the Appalachians and expanding into much of the forecast area. Cooler temperatures and a stable airmass have served to limit chances for thunderstorms thus far, although an isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through the remainder of the afternoon. As a low pressure system swings through the Midwest and towards the Great Lakes, an elongated front extending from the low is anticipated to drop towards the Tennessee Valley. After starting the morning in the low 60s, high temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer than today, rising into the upper 70s and low 80s in the afternoon.
121 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Dry and seasonable weather will persist through Thursday with high pressure in control.
For the rest of the night, expect partly cloudy skies with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s for much of the region. On Thursday, conditions will be slightly drier and warmer as an upper level ridge begins to build over the Southern Plains. Expect the high temperatures to increase to the mid to upper 90s inland and the low 90s along the immediate coast and Barrier Islands. Somewhat of a similar weather pattern expected for Thursday night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and lows in the low to mid 70s.
Thursday's temperatures will be very similar to today (if not a degree or two warmer) as the western upper level ridge amplifies over the southern Plains.
A narrow mean-layer ridge is over the Bahamas, Cuba, and the Western Caribbean. The Florida Keys are within the deep and moist axis between the higher heights to the southeast and the westerlies over the northwestern Gulf.
(This evening through Thursday) Current satellite showing clear skies across the region aside from some stratus near the North Bay coast associated with some lingering moisture from the trough in the Pacific Northwest.
837 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure over New England will build southward slowly over the next few days, wedging against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians, and bringing abundant cloud cover, patchy light rainfall and below normal temperatures.
The weak troughing above South Texas that has maintained unsettled weather on our southeast doorstep will push offshore on Thursday.
General low pressure remains, and will be persistent through the coming days.
Highs should range from the middle 60s to around 70, but could it could get warmer if skies clear earlier than expected.
Tonight, lows in the low to mid 70s, tomorrow, highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Temperatures tonight should be near last night's or even a degree or so cooler in coldest hollows of the Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont. The result will be for increased chances of frost in these cooler spots, but still not widespread enough to warrant any Frost Advisories. Expect another round of valley fog tonight, though not quite as widespread due to warmer temperatures. Conditions Thursday and Thursday night will be very similar, but 3-5 degrees warmer as flow becomes a bit more southeasterly.
708 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure remains largely in control over northern New England through the end of week.
934 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Update Have increased PoPs substantially (to 80-100%) south and east of GRR where showers continue to blossom related to a well-defined spoke of vorticity pivoting n/nw around the upper low. Some question as to how much farther north and west this rain area makes it overnight as the upper low over nw Indiana tracks slowly east-northeast, but for now will go with about GRR to MOP as the westernmost edge of the more widespread rain. As the upper level low slowly tracks to the east we move back into northwest flow, chances for showers diminish through Thursday morning.
606 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 A slow moving upper low will bring a few additional scattered showers and storms to portions of central Illinois through this evening, then precip chances will focus along the I-70 corridor overnight near a stationary front.