Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low clouds have cleared over northeast Arizona as the low pressure system has departed into the plains states. Closed upper level low has moved east and mostly departed the region this afternoon. Just some lingering low level stratus left over on the back side of the low over the four corners region that will be slow to diminish through the afternoon, into the evening. With the departure of the low, high pressure will start building into the region over the coming days.
1026 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 (Tonight) Tranquil weather continues across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure in control. As a result, temperatures have dropped off quickly this evening and will eventually settle into the low to mid 30s in most locations by early Friday morning.
1244 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2023 High pressure will hold over the region through Friday.
312 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2023 Dry high pressure will remain in place today.
1246 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2023 High pressure will hold over the region through Friday.
1107 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Water vapor/RAP & evening synoptic upper air analysis indicate mid-level ridge axis building eastward over the Gulf Coast while upper cold core low is moving into the OK/TX Panhandle.
A negatively tilted high pressure system will continue to dominate the weather pattern today and into tomorrow. A deepening upper level trough will move into the central United states this afternoon and will push the high pressure east ward as it treks to the east tonight into tomorrow.
1028 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2023 Key Messages: 1 - Some fog in the lower elevations, with areas of dense fog in the Wind River Basin.
Temperatures may warm up into the low- mid 50s in far E.
08Z observations show a 563 dm upper low centered near Amarillo, TX and difluent flow downstream of the low through much of central Kansas. The lower level moisture and light winds has led to areas of fog with some spots of more dense fog occurring along the highway 83 corridor. For today most of the CAM models are showing one last area of rain developing from the lift from the upper low creates as it enters into south central Kansas through the afternoon. Subsidence will come in as the low moves eastwards and we should see clearing in our western zones with increasing northwest winds by the afternoon so highs should make it into the middle 40s.
A band of showers off the Washington coast continue to move north ahead of a slow moving warm front this evening.
The line is associated with an upper level low that will slowly progress eastward throughout the day today.
(Today and tonight) An upper low currently centered over the far southwestern TX Panhandle is quickly moving east and as such the rain out ahead of it should completely exit the CWA within the next hour or two.
Over land, the highest speed thus far has been at the Florida Keys Marathon International Airport which recorded a wind gust of 38 knots or 44 mph. Meanwhile, the Lower and Middle Keys have seen much less passing through and generally have seen a tenth of an inch or less.
It was associated with a cold front extending from near Cross Plains to San Angelo to Iraan. Rainfall will be cutting off early this morning in the Big Country as drier air moves in behind the cold front and upper subsidence behind the upper trough takes over.
(Today through Saturday) Ridging influences surface and aloft will continue to provide dry condition across mid state region through tonight. Showers will begin spreading in from the west as day on Saturday progresses as ridging influences shift eastward. Highs will be a few degrees cooler, but still seasonably mild, ranging mid 50s to around 60 degrees.
The Pacific cold front associated with this upper level low is anticipated to move through the region on Friday into Friday evening. Ahead and along this cold front, light to moderate showers will continue to move through the Big Country and into our western zones from now through the early morning hours. Afternoon highs will range in the low to mid 50s, with slightly warmer temperatures across Central Texas in the low 60s. Cooler and drier conditions will replace our more unsettled weather pattern and is discussed in more detail below.
Aside from these areas of low stratus and fog, skies remain clear under a drier northerly flow behind the departing trough that is currently moving through the central Plains with the low spinning over the Texas-Oklahoma panhandle region. High pressure ridge will build to our west and amplify through the weekend, leading to gradual warming over the western slope with highs approaching almost 10 degrees above normal in some areas by Saturday. Despite the cooler nights, lows will still run 5 to 10 degrees above normal with exception of some of the cold pool basins that will be colder due to inversions and snowpack.
Today and Tomorrow: Water vapor imagery this morning features a high amplitude trough system spanning the Southern Plains northward into the Northern Plains, with slowly eastward-moving ridging over the Appalachians. The strong mid/upper forcing and lowered heights has allowed for cooler profile temperatures and light to moderate rain to move into eastern Nebraska, with several instances of bright banding occurring in areas of moderate precipitation due to the melting and increased reflectance being picked up by the radar. Highs tomorrow afternoon will still be able to reach a few degrees above normal despite the morning rain, hitting the lower 40s across much of the area.
528 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Today through Saturday night) Upper level low responsible for all of our precipitation over the past few days was located over the eastern Texas Panhandle. The upper low will continue to move east and will take it's wrap-around moisture with it. The low clouds and fog should start to dissipate from west to east starting around mid day.
623 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2023 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the day on Saturday.
506 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Today through Saturday) Ridging influences surface and aloft will continue to provide dry condition across mid state region through tonight. Showers will begin spreading in from the west as day on Saturday progresses as ridging influences shift eastward. Highs will be a few degrees cooler, but still seasonably mild, ranging mid 50s to around 60 degrees.
516 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 - Continued unseasonably mild today with widespread rain expected late Friday night through Saturday with a low pressure system. - Fog potential will need to be watched for Saturday when the low is overhead.
444 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2023 - Freezing fog has finally dissipated across Laramie County, but has developed across western Nebraska just impacting Alliance at this time.
A strong high pressure will bring stable and stagnant conditions to the Northern Rockies today, and will remain in place through the weekend.
938 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2023 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the day on Saturday.
The upper low/trough continues to exit to the east early this morning, with the main upper trough axis just across the CO/KS border. This dry advection has helped to erode the low ceilings and fog which have been in place over much of southern Colorado. With the departure of the upper low, rising heights with additional warming will be the trend on Saturday as above normal temperatures return to southern Colorado.
426 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Today and tonight) Widespread rainfall continues to shift east over OK early this morning, as the mid to upper low does the same. By tonight, skies should clear west to east and overnight lows will drop into the 20s and 30s behind the cold front.
Guidance has struggled to depict the lower dewpoints recently and values may still be lower than currently forecast. Mid-level energy from troughing approaching from the west will round the base of the trough and aid in the intensification and development of a Gulf Low to the south. As far as impacts for Georgia, rain chances start to increase on Saturday on the northern side of the low. Depending on if the Low tracks offshore or slightly more inland remains to be seen.
The temperatures this morning are in the 60's and will slowly warm up into the low to mid 70's this afternoon. Dangerous boating conditions will continue for today and into the weekend as an area of low pressure develops in the central Gulf of Mexico and moves eastward toward and across Florida.
Current satellite observations show the upper low slowly moving east through the Panhandles region. The winds may also keep temperatures more in the mid to upper 20's instead of the lower 20's (closer to the dewpoints). There is a chance that temperatures could be even warmer and reach the upper 50's with some guidance suggesting that 850mb temperatures could warm 10C as ridging begins to move in aloft.
518 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Today) High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will be the main influence on the local weather today.
222 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2023 221 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2023 - Cold front/clipper today brings slightly cooler temperatures and breezy northwesterly winds. Upper level analysis shows upper low/highly amplified trough slowly pushing east through the Central Plains. Looking further upstream, upper level riding is building over the western third of the US; the ridge axis is centered from the SW US northward into northern ID. At the surface, a cold front extends from NE ND southward into SW ND and eastern MT. This cold front will push through the forecast area this morning with cooler temperatures and breezy northwesterly winds.
538 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Today and Tonight: Slightly warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the period. This was resulting in a rather dry east wind with surface dew points generally in the low to mid 30s. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low centered over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. This closed low will lift east northeast to the mid Mississippi river valley today and then north to the upper Mississippi river valley tonight. It's associated upper level trough and cold front will swing just west of our western most zones by sunrise Saturday morning.
Current satellite observations show the upper low slowly moving east through the Panhandles region. The winds may also keep temperatures more in the mid to upper 20's instead of the lower 20's (closer to the dewpoints). There is a chance that temperatures could be even warmer and reach the upper 50's with some guidance suggesting that 850mb temperatures could warm 10C as ridging begins to move in aloft. From the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF, both are continuing to show an amplified 500mb ridge slowly moving off the Rockies and through the Plains region.
A negatively tilted high pressure system will continue to dominate the weather pattern today and into tomorrow. A deepening upper level trough will move into the central United states this afternoon and will push the high pressure east ward as it treks to the east tonight into tomorrow. While clouds will increase and temperatures will be slightly cooler any precipitation should hold off into later in the weekend which will be discussed in the next section.
The short wave dropping to the back side of the upper polar trough is moving through Wyoming and will finally reach the base of the long wave trough later today causing it to dig at about 25kt to the SSE.
High pressure will remain over the region into Saturday with high clouds spilling over the ridge and into our forecast area the next couple of days. Patches of frost and fog look to continue into Saturday in the valley with the fog mainly near water ways in the central part of the valley and is being limited by the high clouds.
The previously mentioned high over the eastern United States will shift out into the Atlantic as phasing upper troughs contribute to a sizable low formation in the Gulf of Mexico. As the high shifts further and the deepening gulf low expands and shifts eastward, strong winds will veer southeast then south on Saturday. This along with the amplified trough aloft moving into position, the gulf low nearing the northeast gulf coast, and increasing most low level confluence will drive rain chances still higher with an increasing potential for heavy precipitation and thunder.
438 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper low currently centered over the far southwestern TX Panhandle is quickly moving east and as such the rain out ahead of it should completely exit the CWA within the next hour or two.
Elsewhere, a cold front is currently moving through west central Texas with some thunderstorms noted between San Angelo and Abilene. The above mentioned cold front will make slow, but steady eastward progress today as a mid and upper level low pressure center moves across the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma and Kansas. WPC now only highlights a small portion of our forecast area, mainly east of the Highway 77 corridor. Cooler air behind the front will drop overnight lows into the upper 30s to upper 40s as breezy north winds continue.
636 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 - Slightly cooler today, though temperatures will remain above normal for this time of year with highs in the 40s.
This Clipper will have little if any affect on any of our zones with the exception of Fallon and Carter Counties where temps will be about 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday with readings only in the lower 30s.
PVA has seemed to increase over the past several hours over Oklahoma and central Kansas as the upper trough axis has taken on more of a negative tilt. This seems to be in part to both the system occluding and the northern jet stream trying to absorb the cutoff system into the main trough axis.
(Today through Saturday night) Upper level low responsible for all of our precipitation over the past few days was located over the eastern Texas Panhandle. The upper low will continue to move east and will take it's wrap-around moisture with it. The low clouds and fog should start to dissipate from west to east starting around mid day.
520 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Key Messages: * Rain showers expected on Saturday The upper level ridge that was over Illinois is gradually weakening as it drifts to the southeast. The next upper level trough is currently bringing rain to the Southern Plains with its slow eastward progression. And with temperatures expected well above freezing, there is high confidence that the only precipitation type will be rain.
541 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Today through Saturday) Today will be just about a carbon copy of yesterday's weather with abundant sunshine, highs in the lower to middle 60s, and an east wind around 10 mph. A short wave trough over Texas will track eastward towards Alabama and bring an increase in high clouds tonight. A rather intense low pressure system will develop over the northeast Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Some of the models are showing subsidence over Alabama on the northwest side of Gulf system, which would reduce forcing along the short wave trough crossing the Mississippi River.
521 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 - Slightly cooler today, though temperatures will remain above normal for this time of year with highs in the 40s.
522 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Today through Saturday Night) To begin the period, high pressure over the state begins to slide east Friday morning as an upper level trough moves into the area. The accompany trough will bring a cold front into the state by Saturday morning.
313 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2023 221 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2023 - Cold front/clipper today brings slightly cooler temperatures and breezy northwesterly winds. Upper level analysis shows upper low/highly amplified trough slowly pushing east through the Central Plains. Looking further upstream, upper level riding is building over the western third of the US; the ridge axis is centered from the SW US northward into northern ID. At the surface, a cold front extends from NE ND southward into SW ND and eastern MT. This cold front will push through the forecast area this morning with cooler temperatures and breezy northwesterly winds.
Areas of freezing fog will impact morning travel across portions of northeastern Nevada this morning. Today through Saturday night A persistent area of freezing fog in southwest Elko county will likely continue through the remainder of this morning. Otherwise, light winds and warming temperatures are expected through Saturday as high pressure strengthens over the region.
356 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 - Slightly cooler today, though temperatures will remain above normal for this time of year with highs in the 40s.
Upper ridge continues. Area web cams show reduced visibility with a few web cams showing some hint of black ice especially over bridges/overpasses. Though more areas trending toward Dense Fog with visibility below one-quarter mile this morning, will continue with the Freezing Fog Advisory. Would like to believe it but sometimes persistence is a better forecast under the nose of a strong persistent ridge. Some of the high- res models continue to support visibility restrictions returning overnight, and there may be a hint or two in some model soundings for the potential of freezing drizzle.
325 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2023 - Freezing fog has finally dissipated across Laramie County, but has developed across western Nebraska just impacting Alliance at this time.
346 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Today and Tonight: Slightly warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the period. This was resulting in a rather dry east wind with surface dew points generally in the low to mid 30s. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low centered over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. This closed low will lift east northeast to the mid Mississippi river valley today and then north to the upper Mississippi river valley tonight. It's associated upper level trough and cold front will swing just west of our western most zones by sunrise Saturday morning.
640 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2023 Dry high pressure will remain in place today.
(Today and tonight) Widespread rainfall continues to shift east over OK early this morning, as the mid to upper low does the same. By tonight, skies should clear west to east and overnight lows will drop into the 20s and 30s behind the cold front.
Although will likely to see temps a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday with some higher clouds working their way into the area, still think highs will near and even exceed 50F in a few spots given the overachieving trends from yesterday. Meanwhile an upper-level trough over the Central Plains will gradually slide eastward through tonight. However, rainfall amounts remain on the lower side.
559 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) The axis of the large upper low that has provided our cool, cloudy, and wet days as of late will formally be east of us by 12z this morning, turning our weather pretty quiet for a majority of the short term as northwest flow aloft sets up. High temperatures today and Saturday top out in the 50s and 60s but tonight/Saturday morning will be noticeably cooler due to the clear skies and drier conditions behind the front.
333 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 - Signal for freezing rain/drizzle, rain continues along the Highway 2 corridor for a period this morning. However, impacts still uncertain with temperatures near the freezing mark - Main band of precipitation will be I-94 corridor south later today and tonight, starting as rain and changing to snow. Northern branch upper low currently in Saskatchewan will start to dig down into western ND during the day, and conditions look to get more impactful. The CAMs and Canadian continue the trend of developing some fairly vigorous precipitation in the 700mb frontogenesis band, setting up along the Highway 2 corridor around 12Z this morning. While so far observations have been quiet and the only impacts from yesterday's melt refreezing, there is a 50 percent chance for freezing drizzle to produce at least 0.
A large ridge runs norther from the coast of California through the Pacific Northwest, southern British Columbia, and peaks over the high Plains of northern Alberta. Behind it an equally amplified long wave trough drop southern from the Gulf of Alaska.
145 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2023 As expected, a strong high-pressure system maintains its influence over the Northern Rockies, resulting in stable and stagnant weather conditions today.
- Continued unseasonably mild today with widespread rain expected late Friday night through Saturday with a low pressure system. - Fog potential will need to be watched for Saturday when the low is overhead.
With southeasterly return flow this afternoon, even with cloud cover, temperatures have reached the lower to mid 50s F. To the east, across central Missouri, where more breaks in cloud cover have existed, temperatures have pushed the lower to mid 60s F, which are nearly 20 F degrees above normal for the year. The mid-level short wave trough will continue to lift northeast, directly across the our region through Saturday morning. To the north, across the Canadian Rockies, another H500 short wave trough continues to ride east, and remains on track to slide southeast across the Dakotas and merge with our short wave as it lifts into Iowa through midday Saturday.
1018 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2023 - Freezing fog has finally dissipated across Laramie County, but has developed across western Nebraska just impacting Alliance at this time.
117 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 - Periods of rain tonight into Saturday(60-90%) as the upper level low moves through.
(Tonight) An upper low/trough is working its way east into the central and southern Plains. A 5h ridge axis was over the TN valley and central Gulf Coast and will shift east tonight as the low/trough progress to the lower MO valley south through east TX.
Issued by National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1123 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) The axis of the large upper low that has provided our cool, cloudy, and wet days as of late will formally be east of us by 12z this morning, turning our weather pretty quiet for a majority of the short term as northwest flow aloft sets up. High temperatures today and Saturday top out in the 50s and 60s but tonight/Saturday morning will be noticeably cooler due to the clear skies and drier conditions behind the front.
A very thick yet shallow layer of fog has settled in across the areas with a few spots of freezing fog mixed in. The high pressure ridge remains over the region and will begin deepening through the day.
1153 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 - Slightly cooler today, though temperatures will remain above normal for this time of year with highs in the 40s.
Upper level ridge will continue to strengthen in response to an approaching central Pacific upper level low pressure system (moving towards California coast). This will further amplify the ridge which will maintain or even strengthen the boundary layer inversion. This will likely maintain warmer low temperatures Saturday morning. Areas of MVFR and IFR in low clouds/fog in the lower valleys.
1134 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 (The rest of today ) Upper low centered near the Oklahoma/Kansas border late this morning will continue moving northeast into eastern Kansas by this evening.
1238 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the day on Saturday.
228 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023 Dry high pressure will remain in place today.
Coastal Flood Statements for the Lower and Middle Keys may need to be upgraded tonight or Saturday morning as breezes shift to the south and pile up water on our south facing shores. From synopsis, strong high pressure across the eastern United States will maintain near- gale northeast to east breezes through this afternoon. This second surge will be in association with a rapid deepening of a large low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday across the Keys, from late morning into the evening, as the low moves northeast into Central Florida.