Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
641 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Generally dry weather and near to above normal temperatures will continue into tomorrow within the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system.
222 PM PDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Cooler temperatures continue today.
One more morning of freezing temperatures is expected for parts of Lincoln County on Friday.
917 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Generally dry weather and near- to above-normal temperature will continue through Friday within the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system.
652 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 A ridge of high pressure will produce warm and dry conditions through early tomorrow afternoon. A few light rain showers are possible tomorrow afternoon ahead of a cold front. Cooler and drier air will filter in across the weekend with highs ranging from the low 60s to low 70s and lows in the 50s.
629 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 (This evening through Friday Night) One more day of warmer temperatures is in store before the next cold front arrives! A deepening mid-upper level low will continue an eastward progression across the Rockies and Great Plains through the short-term period. Aforementioned low is still on track to eject a cold front into SE Texas later Friday.
No precipitation is expected until Friday afternoon when a few showers are possible in our far southeast counties, but main rain chance will be late Friday night with a cold front that will sweep through the midstate. however this forecaster has to say these are the best type of cold fronts.
706 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions tonight and through the day on Friday.
604 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 (This evening through Friday) The short term period will focus on a strong cold front that will move south across the area late tonight and early Friday. The front will be dry but will bring much cooler temperatures to the region into the weekend. Temperatures will be mild tonight, with lows in the 60s, with highs Friday ranging from the mid and upper 70s across the Big Country, to the low and mid 80s along the I-10 corridor.
1050 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023 A weak cold front will pass through tonight, otherwise high pressure will be in control through Friday night.
(Today through Saturday) Key Messages: - Minor Coastal Flood Advisory in Effect - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents - Cold front tonight into tomorrow morning A mid-level high centered over Cuba and a mid-level low trekking east across the Plains has most of the state of TX under a quasi- zonal flow. Partly cloudy skies combined with diurnal heating today will allow for warmer temps with highs topping out in the low to mid 90s across the region. Tomorrow after the front, highs will be muted to the lower 80s.
After which time, we'll continue to deal with pockets of deformation enhanced rainfall as the low pivots through.
253 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Through Tonight) A warm front that is stretched across NE FL this afternoon, has been responsible for showers across area, and thunderstorms for NE FL Today. With clouds abounding across the area, and the warm front just to the south, temperatures will not fall very far Tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 60s inland SE GA to the lower 70s coastal NE FL.
1143 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 (This evening through Friday Night) One more day of warmer temperatures is in store before the next cold front arrives! A deepening mid-upper level low will continue an eastward progression across the Rockies and Great Plains through the short-term period. Aforementioned low is still on track to eject a cold front into SE Texas later Friday. If the front moves through quicker than anticipated, temperatures on Friday could run cooler than what is forecast; however, models seem to be in relatively good agreement with time of arrival later in the day.
The winds will decrease a bit on Friday, with gusts closer to the low/mid 30s, and become more northeast on Saturday with gusts of 20 to 25 mph.
148 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 High pressure will be in control through Friday night.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) A cold front is currently making its way through the region early this morning. Temperatures to the north climb into the 70s and lower 80s, while areas to the south remain warmer in the upper 80s and low 90s. Drier air and high pressure keep skies sunny.
/Issued 1217 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023/ /Through Saturday/ A noteworthy cold front associated with a deep Central Plains cyclone is on our northwestern doorstep as of midnight, and will sweep through the entire forecast area today. Wind speeds will subside to around 10 mph or less later this evening, and much drier air and continued cold advection will allow overnight lows to fall into the lower 50s and even upper 40s by Saturday morning. /NEW/ /Saturday Night Onward/ The latter half of the weekend and early week will be quite pleasant with post frontal ridging remaining in control across the Plains.
(Today through Saturday) The most significant event during this portion of the total forecast will be the passage of a cold front at, or a couple of hours before, sunrise Saturday. Some additional convection is also possible over portions of the lower Texas coastal waters.
A slow moving upper low over Nebraska will begin making steady progress east to Iowa this afternoon. However, the eastward propagation of the system should limit the northern extent of dry air and WAA north and east of the low will continually develop rain today and this evening across central Minnesota into Wisconsin. The low will reach Illinois by late tonight and begin to shear out while surface winds turn more northerly.
However a piece of energy rotating into the area from the northeast today will keep cyclonic flow over the area (modest instability) and winds will remain easterly (weak upslope lift), so will continue with a chance for light showers/sprinkles for the lower elevations, and light snow in the mountains into early this evening. Ridging aloft will bring southerly winds, mostly sunny skies and temperatures near 60 for Saturday afternoon. Mostly clear and dry conditions Saturday night with lows a bit warmer, in the 35 to 40 degree range for most areas and a few near freezing temperatures along the eastern state line. Chambers For the extended, ridging will give way to southwest/westerly flow.
(Today and tonight) The cold front is currently making its way through the central Texas Panhandle as of 1 AM. Both cooler temps and breezy winds are following behind the front. If winds become light enough, long enough, temps could be flirting with the freezing mark across portions of our northwestern zones.
234 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 High pressure over the central Appalachians will allow for dry conditions today. A large low pressure system over the central United States will introduce clouds and showers for the weekend. High pressure will control our weather today. The upper level ridge will slowly break down as the upper low moves closer to the Mid- Atlantic region. Low pressure over the north-central U. Low pressure will move into the Ohio valley tonight and its associated warm front will lift north. Confidence is high for unsettled conditions as a cold front passes on Saturday and a cold northwest flow arrives afterward. A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic on Saturday to provide scattered rain showers. As the cold front departs by Saturday evening, the wind should shift towards the northwest and increase.
High pressure was situated over Ontario early this morning, as a 995 mb low tracked east through eastern Nebraska. Temperatures ranged from the lower 40s north to the upper 40s and lower 50s south. A prolonged period of moderate rain is expected across the southern two-thirds of the CWA through tonight, as low pressure tracks east through northern IL, but only light rain is anticipated across the far north. Amounts will drop off quickly farther north due to strong E-NE flow out of the Canadian high ridged to our north, so locations near the MI border may only see a quarter to a third of an inch (or less). The rain will gradually taper off from NW to SE late tonight into Saturday, as the low tracks into the Ohio Valley.
154 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions tonight and through the day on Friday. A cold front will approach Friday night and move through on Saturday. Cooler and breezy conditions will then be expected for the remainder of the weekend. Mid level closed low over the Mid MS Valley to track east-southeast and open up as it moves across across the area Saturday.
1025 PM MDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Upper low will gradually move into eastern Nebraska tonight and continue northeastward on Saturday.
Clouds are expected to hold, but with pockets of clearing downslope of the eastern Adirondacks and the lower Connecticut River Valley. Saturday will largely be a repeat as an upper low slides well to our south and we remain mostly dry.
This is due to the lower- level portion of the trough becoming split and pinched off by ridging which is drifting southeastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast. As a result, 850mb troughing will not clear the area today, and it will remain in place over Central Alabama through tomorrow before becoming absorbed within the large-scale trough approaching from the Central CONUS. This means most locations won't be seeing blue skies for the next couple of days until the larger trough passes through the area Friday night/Saturday morning. Daytime temperatures will range from the low to mid 70s west to mid 60s east with overnight lows in the 50s.
1248 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (This evening through Friday) The short term period will focus on a strong cold front that will move south across the area late tonight and early Friday. The front will be dry but will bring much cooler temperatures to the region into the weekend. Temperatures will be mild tonight, with lows in the 60s, with highs Friday ranging from the mid and upper 70s across the Big Country, to the low and mid 80s along the I-10 corridor.
With the cold front's passage behind us, colder weather has arrived and drier air is moving in with dewpoints still dropping at the moment. The drier air and calm winds tonight will allow for effective radiational cooling overnight with many areas in northern arizona dropping to or below freezing. Ridging should start to build into the area over the weekend ushering in a period of moderating temperatures. Despite the ridge, not really expecting much moisture input into the area, though RHs will start to increase slowly.
As a large upper level low moves through the midwest it will bring increased of precipitation with showers overspreading the region late this afternoon and overnight into Saturday. -- Continued Showers with Gusty winds Saturday -- As the upper level low opens up it will bring strong easterly flow through the region Saturday. On the north side of this low is a trough which will drop cold air into the region. While the highest rainfall will have occurred early Saturday expect rain to linger into the early evening hours.
As we go throughout the day today, southerly winds may pick up slightly ahead of an approaching cold front. Diminishing showers ahead of the cold front will move through the area overnight tonight into Friday morning, but precip amounts continue to look very light with only a few hundredths of an inch expected.
Large low pressure system in the central plains will continue to bring chances for rain today. These chances continue to linger mainly along and south of Interstate 94, although the higher confidence areas for these showers comes across southeastern North Dakota and in South Dakota. Winds wrapped up with this low could again be breezy today. ECMWF EFI values are generally low, while 850 MB winds, and pressure rises also look on the low to modest side. Today looks to be one of the cooler days of the week with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Upper low pulls out of the region tonight ending shower chances and diminishes breezy winds.
A warm front is slowly lifting north through Indiana. Lower totals will occur in the great Van Wert and Portland areas, while the highest totals will be toward the Lake.
256 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Upper level low pressure that crossed our region overnight will continue east across Nova Scotia today.
1221 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) The short term forecast is front loaded with wind and an approaching cold front. Gusts begin to decay after sunset and with the approach of a cold front.
Then, as high pressure builds over the western U. Early morning water vapor satellite imagery depicts a well- defined trough situated over the Central Plains. Thus, another day of pleasant temperatures can be expected as highs will top out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees across the lower deserts.
There has been convection that developed in north central Oklahoma where the highest POPs are, and although there is not significant development farther southwest at this point, there still is this potential near and just northeast of the OKC metro, but this is accounted for in the current POP forecast. The cold front will be moving into northwest Oklahoma soon and will continue to move southeast across the area overnight. (This evening through Friday) An intense mid-latitude cyclone is currently moving across the Plains with a trailing dryline advancing across western Oklahoma. A cold front associated with the cyclone will advance into northwest Oklahoma near or just after midnight and will sweep across the entire area from early to mid-morning with gusty northwest winds in its wake.
One more morning of freezing temperatures is expected for parts of Lincoln County this morning.
1057 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Key Messages: - A strong low pressure system will continues to move through the region until Saturday morning bringing widespread precipitation. Looking aloft, the upper level low (ULL) is currently situated in southwestern NE and should continue to pivot northeastwards this afternoon and evening eventually bringing another round of light to moderate showers, breezy to gusty winds, and cooler temperatures.
(Today through Saturday Night ) An upper level ridge is over the eastern U. this morning with a large upper low over the Plains. The upper ridge will move to the east coast this afternoon as the upper low moves east. The upper low moves to the eastern Great Lakes by late Saturday. Highs today and Friday will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s and cooler on Saturday in the upper 50s to lower 70s.
(Today and tonight) A narrow, broken band of showers may occur in southeast Oklahoma as the cold front moves through that region by late morning.
Thus, temperatures across the southern half of the forecast area have generally cooled more quickly than locations still dealing with the low clouds. However, similar to last night, the redevelopment of more stratus areawide tonight should eventually slow the rate of cooling, especially as southerly winds increase ahead of the approaching cold front. However, once the low cigs are able to lift, low VFR cigs will persist across much of the region for the afternoon, scattering out from the W by mid to late afternoon over E TX/extreme SW AR as a cold front shifts SE across these areas.
The upper levels show an upper level ridge retrograding over the Caribbean and into the Gulf. Weak upper level ridging over the region and slightly higher thicknesses today will help us warm well into the 80s and even closer to 90 degree across the western tier. Eyes will then focus upstream as an upper level trough begins to amplify and flatten the aforementioned H5 ridge to our south. This amplification will help bring a cold front through the region late tonight and early Saturday morning.
Ridging allows for dry conditions through the weekend with temperatures trending warmer.
(Today through Saturday) Weak troughing will persist just to our east today with wedging in place. A deeper trough will move through the Mid-MS Valley this afternoon and evening, pushing a cold front through MS Valley by tonight.
221 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 - Strong northwest winds today with the highest speeds across our central Kansas counties.
(This evening through Friday) Afternoon temperatures today are currently ranging from the high 60's to the high 70's with overnight low temperatures expected to be in the mid to low 50's with some farther inland locations dipping into the 40's. On Friday, temperatures will continue to be slightly warmer in the high 60's on the coast to the low 80's inland. Precipitation is expected across the North Bay ahead of an incoming cold front beginning late Friday into early Saturday.
*** Skies will remain mostly cloudy over NE Montana today as the region remains in cyclonic flow around an upper low over the Central Plains. This will also keep temperatures cooler than normal as temperatures will only rise about 10 degrees above current readings for highs today. The upper low moves far enough east tonight that eastern Montana will get out of the upper level cyclonic flow tonight and skies will partially clear.
To the west, a more potent midlevel trough will move through the central Plains towards the Great Lakes region. As a result, moisture and a weak warm front will be pulled northward on Friday warranting low end (10-30 percent) precip chances across our eastern zones of northeast AL. The associated surface cold front will make its way into the area Friday night into Saturday morning with additional chances for rain (15-30 percent) along and ahead of the frontal boundary. The cold front will exit to the east Saturday morning as much cooler and drier airmass filters in behind.
The surface warm front that lifted back north last night has largely stalled has just to our west and north as much of the energy and associated upper-level support has faded. As of 4AM, surface observations are showing temperatures in the high 70s to even the low 80s, with dewpoints just as high.
MVFR CIGs are unlikely to lift until later in the afternoon as daytime heating mixes cloud bases up and dries out the low levels slightly.
With high pressure building in from the west, we expect the cloud cover to gradually dissipate and eventually clear out today. That being said, the next few days will be the result of a "dirty ridge", which usually just means that cloud cover will be more prevalent as opposed to a "clear blue sky" type of high pressure ridging. We still expect temperatures to be several degrees warmer than normal, along with mostly dry conditions through Saturday.
High pressure stacked from the surface and aloft will result in nil rain chances today and tonight along the island chain and most of the coastal waters except for the outer Gulf waters. On Saturday, a frontal boundary stalling over Florida will be pushed southward as an upper level trough from the Rockies and a short wave from the Mid-West merge and swing southward. However, there will be a 30% chance of rain in the evening due to a wind surge and an increase in low-level moisture as a cold front approaches.
638 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 High pressure will build into the region today, ushering in a sunny and dry Friday. An area of low pressure will move through the Mid Atlantic Saturday, bringing rain, easterly winds and well below normal temperatures. Ridging at the surface and aloft should ensure fair and seasonable weather today across Central PA. Model soundings indicate intermittent mid level cloudiness is possible over the northwest part of the forecast area, associated with warm advection aloft preceding low pressure in the Miss Valley. This signature supports leaning toward the lower MAV dewpoints this afternoon rather than those of the NBM.
609 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Today and tonight) A narrow, broken band of showers may occur in southeast Oklahoma as the cold front moves through that region by late morning.
417 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Key Messages: - Low pressure system moving south of the area will bring light to moderate rain and gusty winds to portions of southeast ND and west-central MN today. This low pressure system will continue east throughout today and tonight while gradually weakening in strength. As the low exits east and weakens, winds decrease late this afternoon.
616 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 A robust mid/upper trough was moving slowly eastward across the Central and Northern Plains early this morning. We continue to see mean mid/upper troughing across the Great Lakes and Northeast through the period keeping a northerly flow across the Central Plains.
Temperatures will fall to near or slightly below freezing across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and far northwest Texas Panhandle late tonight into early Saturday morning, and a Freeze Watch has been issued for that part of the forecast area effective from 4 AM Saturday until 10 AM Saturday.
* Breezy (less windy) and continued cool Saturday, with Highs struggling to reach the lower 50s.
619 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Upper level low pressure that crossed our region overnight will continue east across Nova Scotia today.
536 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 High pressure over the central Appalachians will allow for dry conditions today. A large low pressure system over the central United States will introduce clouds and showers for the weekend. High pressure will control our weather today. The upper level ridge will slowly break down as the upper low moves closer to the Mid- Atlantic region. Low pressure over the north-central U. Low pressure will move into the Ohio valley tonight and its associated warm front will lift north. Confidence is high for unsettled conditions as a cold front passes on Saturday and a cold northwest flow arrives afterward. A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic on Saturday to provide scattered rain showers. As the cold front departs by Saturday evening, the wind should shift towards the northwest and increase.
522 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Today through Saturday) Weak troughing will persist just to our east today with wedging in place. A deeper trough will move through the Mid-MS Valley this afternoon and evening, pushing a cold front through MS Valley by tonight.
Moisture is moving in from the west as the upper-level trough moves into the Pacific NW later this morning. Temperatures will be in the 70s and low 80s south of Sacramento, and a few degrees cooler on Saturday. Afterwards, the area will be under a brief period of rising heights with high pressure building in the southwest.
631 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Today through Saturday Night) Satellite imagery and surface observations show a mid latitude cyclone spanning across the Plains this morning, centered over the state of Nebraska. The cold front associated with this boundary has already pushed through the TX Panhandle, currently spanning from Wichita Falls to Midland. This cold front should continue to push south/southeasterly throughout the day as it's parent surface cyclone treks eastward into the Mississippi River Valley. Short term guidance shows a pre-frontal trough entering SE Texas during the mid morning/early afternoon today, bringing a westerly wind shift with highs progged for the 80s/lower 90s. Gusty northerly flow brought upon by the FROPA should funnel cooler, drier air into the region over the next several days, ushering in a cooling trend. Lows tonight should be in the lower 50s/upper 60s.
Sub-freezing temperatures are expected this morning for many areas above 6000 feet, with afternoon temperatures remaining 5-10 degrees below normal. There are already plenty of sub-freezing temperatures being noted across the High Country as of 2:15 AM MST. A ridge will begin to build over the Southwest by the end of the weekend and result in temperatures reaching mid to upper 70s for higher elevations and mid 80s to low 90s for lower elevations. Light winds will remain during this ridge pattern too. By mid-week, there is still indication of a trough influencing northern Arizona. Despite the differing outputs, there is moderate to high confidence of cooler temperatures and increased winds.