Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Rest of today through Tuesday) One more cool day across South Florida as high pressure sits over the state today, before sliding off to the east tonight into Tuesday. Temps overnight will still be cool, however 5-10 degrees warmer than this morning, so no headlines will be needed. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 40s around the lake, to low and mid 50s across the east coast metro. With the high shifting off to the east, light southerly flow returns to the area for Tuesday.
(Today through Tuesday) High pressure over the southeastern US is producing southeasterly low level flow over Texas. Temperatures will be warmer today than yesterday. Highs will be much above normal and range from the middle 70s to the lower 80s.
Temps will remain below normal but will be warmer than yesterday, with highs in the mid to upper 60s, except near 70 degrees along the Treasure Coast. Sunny and dry conditions continue with high pressure across the area, keeping winds generally light and variable. While it will not be as cold tonight, lows will still fall into the low to mid 40s for much of the area as winds remain light and skies stay clear to mostly clear.
(This evening through Tuesday) Short wave ridging will quickly move overhead tonight as the next short wave trough digs into the southwestern US. Despite the approaching trough, low level moisture return will be meager through the afternoon hours. Mid and upper level moisture will increase beginning this evening through tomorrow afternoon ahead of the short wave trough. The approach of the trough will allow a surface cyclone to develop in lee of the Rockies in southeastern Colorado in the afternoon.
1122 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 (The rest of today ) Wind gusts have come down this morning and the trend will be downward thru the day today as low pressure moves away, thus the advisory was allowed to expire at 9 AM.
(The rest of today ) Wind gusts have come down this morning and the trend will be downward thru the day today as low pressure moves away, thus the advisory was allowed to expire at 9 AM.
1243 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over IA with next upper low/trof digging along the CA coast. Short wave ridge will bring dry conditions for much of Tuesday with highs again in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
357 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 Rain returns late tonight and will continue into Tuesday as a low pressure system advances into the Great Lakes. Ridging aloft continues to be the dominate synoptic weather pattern today.
259 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday) High level clouds continue to spread into Georgia today as weakening upper level ridge allows for moisture return to the state. Large parent low pressure system will move from the northern Plains to the western Great Lakes tonight, and while it will stay well north of the region, associated warm and cold front will impact the area Tuesday.
A low level ridge remains over much of Florida with the center located near to right over Tampa. Temperatures have already rebounded into the lower to mid 60s across many areas as the sun continues to get higher in the sky and heats the surface. From synopsis, high pressure centered over Florida will continue moving eastward and elongate as it heads into the western North Atlantic through tonight.
Otherwise, the remainder of today will be mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the low 60s.
1143 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 (Today and tonight) With upper low winding up tight across Kansas and moving rapidly northeast today, a dryline and weak pacific front will progress eastward over the region. In fact, with the westerly downslope component and less cloud cover playing their roles, some areas will be warmer today with portions of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas forecasted to be just a few degrees cooler than their record highs. With the drier air and less wind, cooler overnight lows expected tonight.
1105 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Warm and moist air advection continues to ramp up this morning as a cold front approaches from the W/NW. A trailing cold front will become cutoff from the progressive low and struggle to make much progress south of I-30. A weak low-level trough translating east across an area with dewpoint values in the low to mid 60s ahead of the frontal boundary will support scattered showers across north Louisiana, deep east Texas, and south Arkansas later today. Overnight low temperatures forecast to range from the 40s across southeast Oklahoma to the lower 60s across north Louisiana.
Outside of that, low temperatures will be on the "warmer" side tonight. Lows will range from the upper 50s across the east to the low 60s across the west.
Outside of that, warmer than normal high temperatures can be expected. Highs will range from the low 70s across the southwest to the upper 60s elsewhere. While upper level height falls/ascent associated with the trough will be negligible for this area, strong low level warm advection will support increasing shower coverage through tonight resulting in light to moderate rainfall amounts. /EC/ A low pressure system lifting out of the Great Lakes Region will coincide with showers and storms moving southeast out of Mississippi by Tuesday morning.
1150 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 High pressure will give way to an approaching cold front Tuesday which will stall and give way to warmer conditions through mid week.
1111 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level short wave trough that brought yesterday's wind is deepening over Kansas and Nebraska early this morning and will lift northeastward through the day today. A broad upper level trough remains in place across the western half of the CONUS with a train of energy moving from west to east in zonal flow at the base of the longer wave trough from southern California to West Texas.
A cold front trailing this cyclone is beginning to sweep northeastward through the CWA early this afternoon and will continue to do so through the evening, supporting development of isolated to scattered showers. Ahead of and along this cold front, a narrow (less than 30-mile width) tongue of greater than or equal 50 F of surface dewpoints is present and has allowed a correspondingly narrow corridor of 250 to 500 J/kg of SBCAPE to emerge, with the assistance of surface heating through scattering clouds and mid-level cooling beneath the closed low. Therefore, temps are anticipated to remain above average on Tuesday along with brief dry conditions thanks to large-scale subsidence with the approach and arrival of an upper-level ridge.
139 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 High pressure remains in place this afternoon into tonight under increasing cloudiness with temperatures topping out in the lower sixties.
200 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 Occluding deep low to our northwest will weaken tonight and tomorrow, and mid-level heights will rise as ridging emerges over the area. The track of this system and aforementioned description of the evolving synoptic-scale ridging immediately in its wake means the post-frontal environment will remain mild by mid-January standards. This may be especially true across the northern half of the area, closer to the low. * Active pattern with multiple chances for rain * On average, warmer than normal with swings depending on low pressure location With general troughing over the western CONUS, the Midwest and Ohio Valley will remain active, with multiple surface cyclones over next next 5-6 days.
1110 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 The midlevel trough continues to pivot northeastward across the northern portion of the state this morning. The trough axis aligns along the northern WY border later this morning, focusing the remaining precip chances mainly for YNP and Johnson County.
For the most part, observation stations over the north central cwa show temperatures abv freezing lessening the concern for freezing rain. Low pressure over Iowa will be slow to move northeast and really won't clear the cwa until Tuesday afternoon.
150 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 Rain returns late tonight and will continue into Tuesday as a low pressure system advances into the Great Lakes.
Currently we are seeing high pressure overhead and even though we started out with frost on the ground in a lot of spots this morning temperatures have rebounded quickly with most of us in the 60's. This week will be quiet with ridging remaining overhead.
(18Z TAFS) A VFR ceiling from 3Kft-5kft, associated with a warm front that is lifting north across the region today, is expected to continue over most of the region through this afternoon, especially from PNS to PRN to Camden line westward. The weak lift associated with the warm front, combined with the increasing moisture, with PWATs increasing to 1. We will start to see a moderating trend with regard to temperatures during the near term period, with highs in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees today rising to the lower to middle 70s on Tuesday.
1117 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 High pressure builds in today.
Main impact in short term is another upper level low passing to the south into southern Utah with snow expected to spread into the southern mountains near the Utah border tonight into Tuesday.
1204 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Warm and moist air advection continues to ramp up this morning as a cold front approaches from the W/NW. A trailing cold front will become cutoff from the progressive low and struggle to make much progress south of I-30. A weak low-level trough translating east across an area with dewpoint values in the low to mid 60s ahead of the frontal boundary will support scattered showers across north Louisiana, deep east Texas, and south Arkansas later today. Overnight low temperatures forecast to range from the 40s across southeast Oklahoma to the lower 60s across north Louisiana.
230 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 A leading band of light rain working east across the area this afternoon will end by evening followed by scattered showers in advance of a cold front late tonight. Upper low cntrl IA will lift out into nrn WI overnight and across nrn lower MI tomorrow. Brief low amplitude ridging follows Wed ahead of next, deeper sys wrapping up over the central plains. Thereafter upper low track through srn MI Thu likely to foster a secondary band of rain through srn flank of sys.
High cloudiness will stream east across area through the night as upper trough flattens. Lows Tonight will be milder than this morning, with lows ranging from the mid 30s across central portion of the area to the lower 40s elsewhere.
Another thing worth noting is there have been observations of freezing drizzle to the east of our CWA and will need to follow how this evolves. Previous Discussion: High pressure across central Canada dipping into the northern plains with front draped over central Montana.
Satellite imagery showing a well defined low pressure circulation tracking east-northeast across Kansas. Weak ridging will move across Colorado today behind the exiting system and in advance of the next storm system. Even though ridging will occur today, there should be enough low level moisture over the mountains to produce light snowfall in places through tonight.
Continued with warmer temperatures Tuesday with highs a few degrees above the NAM/MAV guidance.
In the mid levels, an elongated ridge was present from Puerto Rico westward over Cuba and into the central Gulf of Mexico. In the low levels, the ridge axis was centered near to just southeast of Miami. Looking ahead to tonight, the low level ridge is expected to continue moving off to the east into the western North Atlantic elongating as it does so. Therefore, thinking an interesting night is in store across the Keys where the Lower Keys generally will stay warmer than the Upper Keys where the east to southeasterly flow will be stronger. The other caveat to this is the lowest temperatures may actually occur earlier in the night across the Upper Keys before slowly moderating towards daybreak Tuesday.
The best chance for snow is still in the southeast where the best synoptic lifting from the upper low over Iowa is. Freezing drizzle from the very low stratus deck over North Dakota is possible into tonight, and the chance of snow should last through Tuesday morning. We have a Winter Weather Advisory along the Missouri River and east for freezing drizzle and the snow. Based on the NDDOT map, roads still seem slippery from the freezing fog and isolated freezing drizzle.
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Scattered showers are currently spreading eastward across the area as a warm front moves closer.
Satellite loops this afternoon show a low pressure circulation moving into west-central Montana, which is expected to bring snow to much of north-central Idaho and western Montana by this evening. Model guidance have been slow to resolve the strength and track of the low, so the snow forecast through Tuesday morning needed increasing with most places now showing 1-2 inches of new snow by late Tuesday morning.
405 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over IA with next upper low/trof digging along the CA coast. Short wave ridge will bring dry conditions for much of Tuesday with highs again in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
If traveling tonight, allow extra time as roadways may become slick as temperatures drop below freezing with fog in place. Otherwise, the Northern Rockies is in an area of moist air with light winds, with a weak upper low located west of the region. Tuesday into Tuesday night, the upper low will slowly move eastward with a 50-60% chance of light snow in the mountains south of Billings and Sheridan Foothills.
531 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Summary: Southwesterly flow aloft will keep weather active this week with two passing low pressure systems. This low track is well modeled to pass through Wisconsin into northern Michigan. This changes radically during the nocturnal hours where freezing rain and icy roads are more likely to occur as temperatures hover in the upper 20s to low 30s. This may need to be extended westward depending on radar and temperature trends, but for the moment the highest confidence is in those mentioned counties where cold air aloft arrival from the northwest is delayed until midday Tuesday.
646 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 (Rest of today through Tuesday) One more cool day across South Florida as high pressure sits over the state today, before sliding off to the east tonight into Tuesday. Temps overnight will still be cool, however 5-10 degrees warmer than this morning, so no headlines will be needed. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 40s around the lake, to low and mid 50s across the east coast metro. With the high shifting off to the east, light southerly flow returns to the area for Tuesday.
237 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 At the beginning of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows the CWA having a westerly flow aloft being underneath the base of a large, broad upper air trough. Forecast models show this flow continuing through the remainder of the day with an upper air low over northern CA starting to form another trough in the west overnight tonight. Forecast guidance shows this trough deepening and moving eastward with the low being over UT by the late afternoon hours on Tuesday. The CWA upper air flow looks to continue to be westerly during the day before beginning to turn southwesterly as the front part of the trough reaches over the CWA by late Tuesday afternoon.
The other footnote is that there have been reports of freezing drizzle east of our CWA today. Confidence is too low to mention in the official forecast for now, but have messaged a remote possibility for freezing drizzle through tonight along the MT/ND border. Upper ridging for the end of the week will set up across the western U. IFR to LIFR conditions with freezing fog and low ceilings are expected to continue at times through at least Tuesday morning.
Occluding deep low to our northwest will weaken tonight and tomorrow, and mid-level heights will rise as ridging emerges over the area. The track of this system and aforementioned description of the evolving synoptic-scale ridging immediately in its wake means the post-frontal environment will remain mild by mid-January standards. This may be especially true across the northern half of the area, closer to the low. * Active pattern with multiple chances for rain * On average, warmer than normal with swings depending on low pressure location With general troughing over the western CONUS, the Midwest and Ohio Valley will remain active, with multiple surface cyclones over next next 5-6 days.
18Z surface data has low pressure between KBNW and KPRO. An occluded front runs east southeast to between KTNU and KPEA with the warm front continuing into central Illinois. The cold front runs south from the occluded front into central Missouri. high confidence High pressure will exit the area as southerly flow ahead of the mid- week system develops.
526 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Short wave ridging will quickly move overhead tonight as the next short wave trough digs into the southwestern US. Despite the approaching trough, low level moisture return will be meager through the afternoon hours. Mid and upper level moisture will increase beginning this evening through tomorrow afternoon ahead of the short wave trough. The approach of the trough will allow a surface cyclone to develop in lee of the Rockies in southeastern Colorado in the afternoon.
617 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 (Rest of today through Tuesday) One more cool day across South Florida as high pressure sits over the state today, before sliding off to the east tonight into Tuesday. Temps overnight will still be cool, however 5-10 degrees warmer than this morning, so no headlines will be needed. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 40s around the lake, to low and mid 50s across the east coast metro. With the high shifting off to the east, light southerly flow returns to the area for Tuesday.
656 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 Rain returns late tonight and will continue through Tuesday morning as low pressure glides into the Great Lakes. Ridging aloft continues to be the dominate synoptic weather pattern today.
Upper low cntrl IA will lift out into nrn WI overnight and across nrn lower MI tomorrow. Brief low amplitude ridging follows Wed ahead of next, deeper sys wrapping up over the central plains. Thereafter upper low track through srn MI Thu likely to foster a secondary band of rain through srn flank of sys.
A weak backdoor cold front/wind shift will result in easterly winds across north central Oklahoma--but should have no appreciable impact on temperatures with only slightly lower temperatures across this area.
After a couple of days of calm winds high pressure will move away allowing winds to slowly pick up out of south for much of the work week.
534 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Scattered showers are currently spreading eastward across the area as a warm front moves closer.
A storm system will result in periods of valley rain and mountain snow, breezy to windy conditions at times, along with much cooler temperatures the first half of the week.
Mixed in with snow, and for areas not receiving snow, low clouds could bring for and perhaps freezing drizzle at times through the evening. Freezing drizzle reports are also scattered. So made snow the dominant precipitation type to areas with pops, while lingering at least a slight chance of freezing drizzle. The best chance for snow is still in the southeast where the best synoptic lifting from the upper low over Iowa is. Freezing drizzle from the very low stratus deck over North Dakota is possible into tonight, and the chance of snow should last through Tuesday morning. We have a Winter Weather Advisory along the Missouri River and east for freezing drizzle and the snow. Based on the NDDOT map, roads still seem slippery from the freezing fog and isolated freezing drizzle.
Otherwise, the Northern Rockies is in an area of moist air with light winds, with a weak upper low located west of the region. Tuesday into Tuesday night, the upper low will slowly move eastward with a 50-60% chance of light snow in the mountains south of Billings and Sheridan Foothills.
Tonight, winds will be light and variable in between storms, but we will be watching a weak cold front push south by early Tuesday morning, which will bring an increase in northeast wind along with higher relative humidity supporting low stratus and areas of fog. As the next mid-latitude cyclone develops and approaches the southern Colorado Rockies Tuesday, surface cyclogenesis will increase across southeastern Colorado, and surface winds across our southwest Kansas region will become increasingly easterly component as a result.
Upper level flow is turning more westerly to southwesterly ahead of a deepening longwave trough over the wester half of the country with an upper level low near the four corner region. As it ejects northeastward towards the CWA, the jet digs into the base of the trough with increasing divergence ahead of it increasing PVA in the process.
10 pm temps are mostly in the low to mid 60s except for DeQueen just a few degrees away from the low with some cold air drainage, but thinking they will hold close.
Stratus is likely bringing dense fog to the higher elevation of northern Valley county and cameras are verifying it in SW Phillips county. The other footnote is that there have been reports of freezing drizzle east of our CWA today. Confidence is too low to mention in the official forecast for now, but have messaged a remote possibility for freezing drizzle through tonight along the MT/ND border. Upper ridging for the end of the week will set up across the western U.
The potential for additional light showers will continue the remainder of the night ahead of a weakening and nearly diffuse cold front to our northwest. Outside of that, low temperatures will be on the "warmer" side tonight. Lows will range from the upper 50s across the east to the low 60s across the west.
(Today and tonight) We're seeing increased southwesterly flow in the upper levels ahead of the next upper trough progged to move into the area tonight and tomorrow. The aforementioned upper trough will approach the area overnight with the upper low ejecting out of the Four Corners region and into the South Central plains.
With continued warm, moist flow ahead of the cold front, overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
347 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 A weak low pressure system will move through the region bringing a wintry mix and some rain showers.
126 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2023 At the beginning of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows the CWA having a westerly flow aloft being underneath the base of a large, broad upper air trough. Forecast models show this flow continuing through the remainder of the day with an upper air low over northern CA starting to form another trough in the west overnight tonight. Forecast guidance shows this trough deepening and moving eastward with the low being over UT by the late afternoon hours on Tuesday. The CWA upper air flow looks to continue to be westerly during the day before beginning to turn southwesterly as the front part of the trough reaches over the CWA by late Tuesday afternoon. A couple of potent upper lows move out of California to the southern Rockies and southern plains.
Warm, moist flow will continue ahead of the cold front and overnight lows are expected to be about 20 degrees above normal for mid-Jan, ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s.
157 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2023 Weak flow aloft and abundant moisture in the lower levels has led to areas of dense fog and light snow snow or flurries over central and eastern areas early this morning. Fog will gradually diminish today, with light snow continuing over portions of the area, as a weak upper low shifts east over central Montana, and another wave lifts north and east through the Central Rockies. A few inches of snow are possible in the mountains, with up to an inch at the lower elevations in Sheridan County. As the weak upper low over Montana slowly shifts east tonight, light snow and reductions due to fog will continue, mainly for areas east of Billings.