Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The best synoptic forcing will remain to our west today, tied to a broadening upper low tracking northeast through the Ozarks. Otherwise, look for afternoon highs in the low 90s with increasing clouds from west to east.
627 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat this afternoon with heat index values 110 to 114 - Isolated rain/thunderstorm chances possible over the Victoria Crossroads As a mid-level low moves further off to the northeast today this will allow for high pressure to begin building back in over the region.
In terms of temperatures, expect daytime highs in the lower 90s areawide. High pressure over the southeast U.
High pressure will be over the area through Tonight. The east coast sea breeze will push well inland this afternoon, leading to cooler temperature readings at area beaches.
620 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure slides a touch to the east today and will allow a more southerly flow to develop over the area.
1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure slides a touch to the east today and will allow a more southerly flow to develop over the area.
With the dry air mass in place, overnight lows will be cooler than normal tonight and Tuesday night, with low 40s for the Flagstaff area and even dipping into the 30s for the usual cold spots such as Tusayan and Bellemont.
1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat this afternoon with heat index values 110 to 114 - Isolated rain/thunderstorm chances possible over the Victoria Crossroads As a mid-level low moves further off to the northeast today this will allow for high pressure to begin building back in over the region.
The last of the unstable air and rainy conditions departs late night tonight as the upper level low continues an eastward track away from the Great Basin. Afternoon temperatures should be above normal by Wed, mostly in the 70s on Tue, then some lower 80s for Wed/Thu in the lower elevation populated areas.
1105 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Satellite imagery shows the low is moving through the Great Basin centered about over Elko NV tracking east. The jetstreak associated with the upper-level low is starting to shift to the eastern flank to turn the trough motion more to the northeast across northern Utah into southern Wyoming by late this afternoon. With the upper-level support, some of these storms may move over the lower valleys, but the rain totals look to be on the low end as these storms will move quickly ahead of the frontal boundary. cooler temperatures to the north. High pressure will be expanding across the Southwest CONUS border from midweek onward and effectively cutting off the monsoon source region.
1234 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 (Today and tonight) The region will be situated under an upper level ridge this afternoon while an upper level low well off to the northeast helps reinforce drier mid-level northeasterly flow. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the lower 90s.
336 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Short Term/Marine -- Dry tonight into Tuesday morning -- The dry weather will continue tonight and Tuesday morning as ridging hangs on aloft. -- Precipitation chances Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night -- A shearing out upper low (currently seen in MO/AR) will move into Lower Michigan on Tuesday afternoon.
Onshore flow will continue today with a low pressure system sitting offshore. This pattern will help keep us below normal for temperatures with most valley locations expected to sit in the low to mid 80's for today. High pressure through the desert southwest is expected to make it's way back into the picture by mid-week helping to increase temperatures back to near normal.
Tonight, we'll see continued low chances for showers in storms in Atoka / Bryan counties (associated with the upper low meandering through eastern Oklahoma) and very low chances in northwest Oklahoma (a few models show a subtle upper wave moving through, though moisture is quite questionable).
1202 PM PDT Mon Sep 4 2023 A compact weak low pressure system will bring increased cloud cover and a slight chance of light rain showers across northeast CA and northwest NV tonight and Tuesday morning. A compact upper level low will quickly sweep across northeast CA and northwest NV tonight into early Tuesday morning. Deterministic GFS/NAM also support some potential for thunder/lightning overnight, especially between 7-10 AM as the low quickly ejects across northern Washoe county. As high pressure expands westward across CA/NV this week, temperatures will increase to near normal and then above normal for the weekend.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Models depict high pressure remaining well established across the region during the short term with relatively dry air keeping dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. However, the lower dew points are going to help in moderating heat index values, which are expected to remain in the low to mid 90s.
At the surface, broad low pressure ahead of the upper level trough is spread out from the northern plains/southern Canada through the central plains, which is supporting gusty southerly/south-southwesterly winds across southwest KS. These downsloping winds along with fully clear skies have already resulted in temperatures rising into the low/mid 90s, and will peak in the low 100s later this afternoon. Northerly winds behind this boundary will cause temperatures to drop into the low to mid 60s for most areas early Tuesday, with only the far southeast zones holding in the upper 60s/low 70s given shorter residence time within cold advection. Regardless, temperatures will still be noticeably cooler than Monday, as afternoon highs only reach the upper 80s to low 90s.
255 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will remain over the area through the first half of this week with dry and hot conditions.
(Tonight) Weak upper ridging continues aloft while a moisture gradient resides over the area.
225 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will remain over the area through the first half of this week with dry and hot conditions.
102 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Models depict high pressure remaining well established across the region during the short term with relatively dry air keeping dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. However, the lower dew points are going to help in moderating heat index values, which are expected to remain in the low to mid 90s.
316 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Key Messages: - High pressure reigns.
(Tuesday night through next Monday) Upper level ridging will remain in place through most of the week resulting in a continuation of hot and dry conditions.
On the leading edge of this disturbance, a cold front continues to push to the south and east across the northern half of the forecast area.
Areas of low clouds over the high terrain from the Mogollon Rim northward will gradually lift through the morning, with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. A trough moving quickly through the Great Basin today will drag a shallow moisture boundary through our northwestern zones this morning, with a few light showers possible through 18Z. After the trough axis moves through, we are stuck in dry southwesterly flow aloft and rising heights through the rest of this forecast period.
A persistent swath of showers has wobbled about the Lower and Middle Keys for much of the day. These two systems will slide east over the next few days and phase with the long wave trough lingering over the extreme western North Atlantic. The merged trough complex will be downstream from building heights over the southwestern US.
131 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will prevail until late week when a cold front will move into the area. High pressure still predominant over the area today with dry conditions through the day. The Piedmont trough may push into the farthest NW reaches of our area later in the day. Highs near normal in the lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Upper-level ridging over the Southeast U. Some pockets of moisture should start to push to our area by mid-week, with a few isolated showers possible as PWAT values will remain on the low side according to climatology. In terms of temperatures, daytime high temperatures are forecast to reach the lower to mid 90s. High pressure over the Southeast U.
This "discrepancy" is largely caused by the radar overshooting the low tops of the stratocumulus.
130 PM PDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Warmer and drier weather this week with temperatures warming closer to normal by mid-week. Current temperatures are trending approximately 5 to 15 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, valid at 130 PM PDT. Warmer and drier weather is expected this week. Even with the slightly warmer weather, HeatRisk is expected to remain in the minor category for the Valley and foothills, and in the minor and little to none categories for the mountains.
- Cooler to end the week with relatively pleasant temperatures. The higher dewpoints from earlier today have slowly decreased into this afternoon as mixing has deepened. Larger scale models and CAMs have both indicated the possibility for isolated elevated storms moving into the south later tonight on strong low level flow and have continued the low PoPs for this potential. Given the higher dewpoints ahead of the system, heat index values are forecast to be slightly higher than today with values mostly from 95 to 102 across the area.
An upper level trough will continue to move to our east today, resulting in breezy west to northwest winds and temperatures around 10 degrees below normal.
121 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will remain over the area through the first half of this week with dry weather.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Tuesday Night/ The slow moving upper low that brought scattered showers and storms to the region yesterday is drifting to the northeast thanks to a nudge from an upstream trough across the Intermountain West. Weak ascent associated with the upper low has resulted in a few continuing showers across our far east and northeast counties but these will wind down into the early afternoon. The aforementioned upper trough over the Western U. This low level flow will veer some by early Tuesday morning, so it remains to be seen if most of the cloud cover will spread up the I-35 corridor or remain east of there. Mixing will allow dewpoints to fall into the lower 60s and should keep heat indices in check, but we may need to reintroduce heat advisories to part of the area.
As temperatures increase, should start to see some of the low visibility and drizzle/fog lift up throughout the day.
As upper low lifts to northeast tonight, continued broad ascent will persist. Increased low-level moisture & some clouds will lead to near normal lows in the low 70s, while some patchy fog can't be ruled out in the Pine Belt near daybreak. As the upper low gets picked up & phases into Tuesday, trough axis will swing across the area on Tuesday. Near to slightly above normal highs in the low-mid 90s is expected Tuesday, but with decreased low-level moisture & dewpoints mixing out into the low to mix 60s, heat stress concerns won't be a problem.
The bulk of the storms have developed on the north and east sides of the upper low that is now centered near the four-states area of Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas and Arkansas. All of the showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to shift to the north and east along with the movement of the low, with a largely dry evening expected.
High pressure will build over northern Chihuahua through tomorrow, and will meander over the Borderland through the weekend.
Lingering post sfc frontal activity is expected on Tuesday as upper trof slides through the CWA.
224 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure which has dominated the region over the past several days will remain over the region through the middle of the week.
Lather, rinse, and repeat for heat and humidity tomorrow with more humidity expected as southerly winds advect 70 degree dew points into southern Wisconsin that shouldn't mix too low with time ahead of an approaching low pressure system and daytime temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s. While rain will move toward southern Wisconsin Tuesday night along with the front and Low pressure system, HREF guidance suggests the line of storms along the front will struggle to maintain themselves with eastern progress as the LLJ wanes somewhat overnight.
There was sufficient wind to mix out some of the low level moisture, so relative humidity values were not contributing much to the heat index, which was very close to the outside air temperature. It was quite a bit cooler at the lakeshore, where cool water from Lake Michigan has upwelled and resulted in temperatures in the upper 60s there. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possibly by late afternoon in north central Wisconsin ahead of an approaching cold front.
140 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will lead to another day of warm and dry conditions. A cooler and drier airmass will then settle into the region through the end of the week.
The closed upper low will open up into a trough axis as it pivots across the lower Ohio Valley late tonight into Tuesday. Even more likely would be an increase in activity by late morning into the afternoon on Tuesday as the trough continues slowly churning east across the area.
Otherwise, ridging surface and aloft will keep winds light and conditions dry.
An upper level low pressure system will slowly lift from western Arkansas into southern Missouri tonight. Thunderstorms will continue in advance of this upper low.
a cold front will move through the area, producing north to northwest winds gusting up to 35 mph. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 50s to middle 60s. High temperatures will be cooler, ranging from the upper 70s to upper 80s.
Temperatures range from mid 70s in our west to mid 90s across our east, with dew points in the 50s for most to the lower 60s near the northern/northeastern foothills. Given deep, dry boundary layers over much of the area--which will support strong, merging outflow boundaries--and increasing midlevel flow as the aforementioned trof approaches, damaging straight-line winds will be the primary threat. Much milder 850 mb temps arrive late tonight behind an attendant cold front, which should support below average temps tomorrow.
Once the precip ends, building ridge will yield mostly dry weather Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temps tomorrow will remain cooler than normal w/ highs in the low- mid 70s.
Upper ridge is starting to slowly shift east, as a deep upper wave pushes through the Rockies today. With this low now approaching us, we have opened up the gulf transport of moisture. Although, we are forecasting dewpoints in the low 70s for most. Fortunately, we will have quite a nice southwesterly breeze, which will help keep you "cooler.
112 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will be over the area through Tonight. The east coast sea breeze will push well inland this afternoon, leading to cooler temperature readings at area beaches.
Drier and warmer weather develops Tuesday through much of the week ahead. Longwave upper level troughing remains in place across western Canada and the NW US early this week before upper level ridging becomes re-established over the SW US later this week and begins to expand north late this week. A smaller scale trough extending south from Saskatchewan with an embedded mid level wave lifting out of WY this afternoon is producing widespread rain/showers across eastern portions of north-central and SW MT with the deeper moisture and widespread precipitation shifting east of the area with the trough by this evening.
Southerly winds will remain breezy overnight, helping temperatures remain quite warm, only falling into the low mid 70s by morning. Lather, rinse, and repeat for heat and humidity tomorrow with more humidity expected as southerly winds advect 70 degree dew points into southern Wisconsin that shouldn't mix too low with time ahead of an approaching low pressure system and daytime temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s. While rain will move toward southern Wisconsin Tuesday night along with the front and Low pressure system, HREF guidance suggests the line of storms along the front will struggle to maintain themselves with eastern progress as the LLJ wanes somewhat overnight.
511 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023 (Tonight) Weak upper ridging continues aloft while a moisture gradient resides over the area.
722 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will remain over the area through the first half of this week with dry and hot conditions.
(Now through Tuesday) Upper level ridging will build over the area on Tuesday with the primary moisture axis being pushed well west of the area. The combination of the upper ridge and some drier air being moving in from the east will lead to dry conditions across much of the area with exception of the far offshore waters where isolated showers will be possible on Tuesday. The increased subsidence under the upper ridge will also lead to warmer temps with highs in the low to mid 90s.
(This evening through Tuesday) Key Messages: - High pressure reigns.
614 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will remain over the area through the first half of this week with dry and hot conditions.
757 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 Aviation -- Dry tonight into Tuesday morning -- The dry weather will continue tonight and Tuesday morning as ridging hangs on aloft. -- Precipitation chances Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night -- A shearing out upper low (currently seen in MO/AR) will move into Lower Michigan on Tuesday afternoon.
Currently - High pressure over the far southeastern United States extends eastwards into the Atlantic. However, portions of the Lower Keys have received a round or two of showers through the evening. Dew points are in the mid 70s with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Short Term Update - Ridging will remain effectively unchanged through the overnight period. Model plan views and soundings suggest that the lower level lift is not going to go anywhere through the overnight period. Temperatures are not expected to move much and overnight lows should reside in the lower 80s. Ridging to our north will maintain moderate to fresh east to southeasterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
* Much nicer through the rest of the week into the weekend behind tonight's cold front. However, with temperatures just a few degrees cooler today, mainly in the mid 90s, our RH values have not been as low as the past two days. There will be a few showers or general thunderstorms later this evening into the late night hours along and behind an advancing cold front. Dry conditions are expected behind the cold front.
833 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure in the lower levels of the atmosphere remains anchored just north of the region with an Easterly steering flow across NE FL/SE GA that has weakened enough that any isolated shower activity over the Atlantic Coastal waters has ended and just clear skies remain in place this evening. For tonight still expect mostly clear skies and near calm winds over inland areas to allow for another below normal temp night with widespread lows in the 60s, and in the lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast.
706 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure remains poised to the east and southeast.
526 PM MDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure will build over northern Chihuahua through tomorrow, and will meander over the Borderland through the weekend.
722 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Models depict high pressure remaining well established across the region during the short term with relatively dry air keeping dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. However, the lower dew points are going to help in moderating heat index values, which are expected to remain in the low to mid 90s.
307 PM MDT Mon Sep 4 2023 The upper low continues to move northeast into south central Wyoming this afternoon. The resultant tail end of the trof is moving east and northeast across northwest Colorado with a band of showers and thunderstorms. Large scale QG descent will be spreading over northern Colorado behind the trof this evening and through the night period. This will increase the westerly winds over the higher mountains and exposed east slopes with potential gusts from 40-60 mph. Tuesday is shaping up as the coolest day of the week behind the upper trof with low level cooling and shallow upslope flow.
This activity should end before midnight and although the upper level trough will remain to our northwest, model consensus suggests noredevelopmentt until after sunrise Tuesday morning. As upper low lifts to northeast tonight, continued broad ascent will persist. Increased low-level moisture & some clouds will lead to near normal lows in the low 70s, while some patchy fog can't be ruled out in the Pine Belt near daybreak. As the upper low gets picked up & phases into Tuesday, trough axis will swing across the area on Tuesday. Near to slightly above normal highs in the low-mid 90s is expected Tuesday, but with decreased low-level moisture & dewpoints mixing out into the low to mix 60s, heat stress concerns won't be a problem.
Mainly dry weather is expected through the weekend as high pressure builds into the area. Northwest flow has set up over the west coast as the trough moves off to the east. This will bring some guests of 20 to 25 mph over the highest terrain.
3) Cold front arrives Tuesday - Tuesday night, with showers and thunderstorms likely. Our hot and sticky day continues with temperatures as of 4 PM ranging from the low-mid 80s along the US/Canada border, to the mid 90s from the Brainerd Lakes through the Hayward area where there has been more sunshine today. Tuesday a strong upper low pressure system will move slowly across the area. Temperatures on Tuesday will be hottest for northwest Wisconsin, with cooler temperatures where the clouds and precipitation move in soonest.
747 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023 High pressure which has dominated the region over the past several days will remain over the region through the middle of the week.
Ensemble guidance continues to show a low pressure system pushing south of our area in northern/central California tomorrow. Followed by a general trough pattern and another open low pushing up into the Pacific Northwest, north of our area. These systems will also keep us a bitter cooler than normal, to approach normal through the end of the week.
- Cold front moves through tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Drier and warmer weather develops Tuesday through much of the week ahead. - Fogleman Longwave upper level troughing remains in place across western Canada and the NW US early this week before upper level ridging becomes re-established over the SW US later this week and begins to expand north late this week. A smaller scale trough extending south from Saskatchewan with an embedded mid level wave lifting out of WY this afternoon is producing widespread rain/showers across eastern portions of north-central and SW MT with the deeper moisture and widespread precipitation shifting east of the area with the trough by this evening.
(Today through Wednesday) Generally dry and quiet weather will prevail for the foreseeable future as high pressure remains in place and dry air overspreads the area. High temperatures will peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon through the short term, but with the lower dew points, heat indices will struggle to break into the triple digits.
A cold front will move through Minnesota and into Wisconsin Tuesday into Wednesday.