Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper-level ridging and broad scale mid- to-low-level subsidence should start opening up some holes in the clouds during the afternoon, starting in the interior northern part of the peninsula and spreading southward. Additionally, in north flow with dry-air advection, further drying is promoted (slightly) by downsloping flow off the higher terrain of the central/northern lower peninsula.
An amplified upper ridge will begin to build over the Panhandle today. Highs in the low 60s are expected. No significant pattern changes are expected into this evening and thus temperatures should fall into the low 30s by early Saturday morning.
1135 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Temps had cooled to the upper 30s to mid 40s across the Midsouth at 9 PM, following a cold frontal passage earlier today. GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low over the mid-MS River Valley. PWB The cold front is currently over the MS/AL state line as temperatures are slowly falling after the passage. Dry and cool weather, due to high pressure building over the region, is expected this weekend.
Rain in northwest Ohio and eastern Indiana will taper off this evening as the low departs. ) A towering ridge will move from west to east over the next few days promoting the return to well above- normal temperatures.
1001 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2023 An upper level ridge over the Western CONUS will continue shifting east over the Tri-State area this evening through the end of the short term period. The ridge axis is currently expected to move over the High Plains on Saturday. On Saturday, the trough looks to gradually expand across the Plains as it continues to strengthen. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected as the trough expands over the area. Looking to mid week, the GFS and ECMWF are both being rather consistent with the track of the closed low for the last day or so of model runs. The GEFS has the higher chances for 0. The timing of this event will likely change due to the models moving the closed low east too fast.
Continued mostly clear skies and light winds will lead to perhaps more decoupling of winds over eastern counties, so areas just east of Austin may see a few pockets of freezing temps in addition to the valleys of the Hill Country Saturday morning.
(Today and tonight) A longwave trough will settle across the southeast US with perturbations rounding the base of the trough. Clouds, gusty winds, and cold air advection will keep highs only in the lower to middle 50s. The cold air advection regime continues into tonight with lows near freezing for most areas.
1023 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2023 Eastern Utah and Western Colorado will see quiet weather for the next couple days as a strong ridge builds in over the Intermountain West. By tomorrow evening, the axis of the ridge will shift east of the Divide as the deep trough approaches the West Coast. This will shift our winds more southwesterly tomorrow afternoon, and the peaks and high ridges may see winds start to get gusty tomorrow evening. By Saturday, the west CONUS ridge will be a thing of the past, having moved over the Great Plains. With a long wave trough just off the west coast, that leaves our region under southwest flow.
High pressure will produce dry weather across the region today. The high will move east tonight.
842 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2023 EVENING UPDATE: Freezing fog began developing across Sheridan, Daniels, and Roosevelt counties at around 00Z and has continued to persist along the Missouri River Valley basin. Models have continued to show a possibility for freezing fog developing in central Valley county after 12Z and lingering until around 18Z. The main concern during the period is dense fog in the near term and possible freezing rain on Saturday. With the temperatures near to slightly above freezing, along with cold snow covered ground and warmer temperatures aloft ahead of the trof, freezing rain is a potential. Updated: 0330Z Expected Flight Category: VFR-LIFR Synopsis: Dense freezing fog lingers around KOLF and is expected to last until 15Z before visibilities start recovering.
Upper level high pressure will bring lee side troughing to eastern NM today. The upper level ridging will move off the Rockies and into the Plains overnight. This will keep the lows a touch warmer.
1058 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Light rain continues to move southeastward across the Quad State following the cold front. On the synoptic scale, a fairly deep mid-level trough is positioned over the Midwest while a ridge is centered on the Great Basin. Northwesterly to NNWerly flow is positioned over the Quad State tonight as a weak disturbance drops into the trough and moving through the region. The system finally moves out late in the day, allowing for skies trending clearer and lows dropping to the low to mid 20s Friday night. High pressure moves through Saturday as the ridge progresses eastward into the area. Temperatures begin to trend warmer with highs reaching the lower half of the 40s and lows near 30.
A strong cold front is now draped across AL/GA/north FL as rain showers and thunderstorms continue to progress southeastward ahead of the front. Moisture quickly increases along the cold front as it pushes into east central Florida, with a narrow ribbon of 1. SW winds increasing, turning WSW along and behind a strong cold front after 12z.
1054 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (Tonight) Gusty winds have come down significantly in the last hour or so, with the threat for any strong to severe storms having long since diminished with the passage of the cold front. Light showers continue to develop as a secondary vort max rounding a broader upper-trough over the eastern CONUS dives southeast toward the Tennessee Valley overnight. However, some localized spots across the higher terrain may see some light accumulations later on during the day on Friday as this light precipitation continues.
Warmer temperatures today will peak Friday afternoon with above normal temperatures through Saturday.
1051 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Fairly boring weather in the short term with upper ridging dominating both today and Friday, keeping us bone-dry. A cold front moved through this morning and winds have shifted out of the north, so the colder air is hanging around for a bit and highs this afternoon won't break out of the 50s for most. By Friday, ridging will be firmly in place and highs will return to the low 60s, cooler than the past several days but still above- normal. Light southerly winds and increasing cloud cover Friday night should help to keep overnight temperatures above freezing in the 30s and low 40s.
(Tonight through Friday) Large area of wrap-around clouds have quickly moved in behind the cold front. Strong cold air advection will drop lows overnight to near freezing northwest and lower 40s southeast. Temperatures will fall after sunset behind the line of storms with readings falling to near freezing far northwest toward daybreak on Friday morning with readings in the mid 30s across the northwest third of the area and in the upper 30s for the rest of the area except the far southeast with readings in the lower 40s.
Low temperatures areawide are expected to be above freezing so snow will not be a concern. With these factors in mind have extended the High Wind Warning for the foothills of Oregon and the wind advisories for the Grande Ronde Valley and foothills of southeast WA until noon Friday. IFR cigs and vsbys in the lower Columbia Basin tonight facilitates continued deteriorated conditions at YKM, PSC, and DLS into Friday morning.
A squall line ahead of a potent cold front is pressing east through the FL Panhandle. Water vapor imagery highlights the next impulse diving through Iowa and Missouri which will join the parent trough complex. This feature will help drive the cold front through the Gulf and into the Keys late Friday afternoon. From synopsis, high pressure remains in control tonight across the Florida Keys with light to gentle breezes expected. A strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will push through the Florida Keys coastal waters late Friday afternoon and evening.
1058 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (Tonight through Friday) Large area of wrap-around clouds have quickly moved in behind the cold front. Strong cold air advection will drop lows overnight to near freezing northwest and lower 40s southeast. Temperatures will fall after sunset behind the line of storms with readings falling to near freezing far northwest toward daybreak on Friday morning with readings in the mid 30s across the northwest third of the area and in the upper 30s for the rest of the area except the far southeast with readings in the lower 40s.
(Today through Saturday) Northwest flow aloft will be in place across Texas today, between east and west coast troughs. Weak ridging aloft will slide through the region tonight and Saturday. A low level ridge axis will move through the region today, with weak east to southeast winds developing west to east this afternoon and evening.
However, as a deep upper low/trough axis continues to gradually dive/rotate to the SE, weak synoptic lift associated with this feature may allow for some very light accumulations of snowfall over parts of southern mid TN into north AL.
With clear skies and a lack of strong cold air advection, am expecting daytime highs today to be a tick warmer than the previous forecast.
As the upper low/trough pull east later today, clouds will begin to break up from the west, with partly cloudy conditions by mid evening on the Illinois side. Geelhart Upper ridging currently west of the Rockies will shift eastward this weekend, with the axis over the Mississippi Valley by Saturday evening.
Quick moving upper level ridge and Chinook winds off the Rocky Mountain Front Range will push a warm front through the area today. On Saturday a disturbance moves northeast across the northwestern part of our CWA and due to the warm air aloft and the shallow layer of cold air at the surface, precipitation will be in the form of freezing rain or rain.
527 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023 Much cooler temperatures and scattered snow is expected today before dry conditions return for the weekend. Snow accumulations across the lowlands will be minimal given surface temperatures and the boundary layer failing to extend up into the DGZ. For the ridges; orographic enhancement should support a several of inches of snowfall, around 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts along the highest ridge tops. In addition; a well-mixed boundary layer and increasing pressure gradient should support increased wind today with the highest gusts just below advisory criteria along the the higher elevations. A return to more seasonable conditions should ensue thereafter, with high temperature in the 30s (lowlands) and 20s (ridges), and lows in the upper teens.
617 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023 (Today and tonight) A longwave trough will settle across the southeast US with perturbations rounding the base of the trough. Clouds, gusty winds, and cold air advection will keep highs only in the lower to middle 50s. The cold air advection regime continues into tonight with lows near freezing for most areas.
537 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 (Today through Saturday) Northwest flow aloft will be in place across Texas today, between east and west coast troughs. Weak ridging aloft will slide through the region tonight and Saturday. A low level ridge axis will move through the region today, with weak east to southeast winds developing west to east this afternoon and evening.
High pressure aloft will peak in strength today, bringing well above average temperatures and breezy, dry conditions to most locations. Areas along the Milk River Valley may even see a period of freezing rain or drizzle.
A broad trough of low pressure extended from the western Great Lakes south-southwest to the mouth of the Mississippi River. West of this feature, ridging extended from Arizona north into Alberta. West of this feature, a trough of low pressure extended from the Gulf of Alaska south to approximately 800 miles off the coast of Southern California. At the surface, an axis of high pressure extended from the eastern Dakotas into eastern Nebraska. On the western periphery of this high a deck of stratus and fog extended from central South Dakota into north central, central and eastern Nebraska.
Fog will likely linger well into the afternoon, but the lowest visibilities will likely occur this morning. The Missoula valley, KMSO, appears to hold on to the strong valley inversion which could cause snow or even freezing rain for a period of time. This flow pattern will cause temperatures to be warmer than normal for the majority of the region. The valleys that hold on to the inversion could experience a wintry mix that includes freezing rain.
542 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 A rather amplified upper air pattern exists across the CONUS at this time featuring an upper ridge from the Four Corners Region into the Northern Rockies, and a deep long wave trof centered through the east. A series of vort maxes will rotate south- southeastward within the cyclonic flow of the western portion of the trof and across eastern MO and western IL. Louis at 08z and was helping produce some scattered flurries and even lighter patchy freezing drizzle. Portions of southwest IL may not completely clear until this evening as high pressure slides into the area. A warm-up will commence on Saturday as low level south to southwest flow returns, and heights aloft rise in association with a ridge building into the MS Valley from the Plains.
332 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 A mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes area tonight is progged to dig south and eastward across the Ohio Valley into the Southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, an amplified mid/upper ridge over the Central Great Basin area will translate eastward into the Rockies with northwest mid/upper flow impacting the Central Plains.
Lows tonight should range from at/near freezing for the far northern counties (roughly from a Madisonville/ Crockett line).
506 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2023 Current surface map places warm front across eastern Montana into western South Dakota. Low clouds/dense fog east of the warm front will linger through this morning. Upper level ridge builds across the area today with low level thermal profiles peaking late today/early Saturday supporting highs in the 40s/50s.
around the parent upper low over the Great Lakes Region. Highs on Sat will be a bit warmer in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Lows Sat night will be warmer as well.
NBM shows temperatures warming to the upper 20s/lower 30s by Saturday, but I could see some locations holding in the low to mid 20s due to cloud cover and impacts of cold snow pack/limited mixing in the valley.
Warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected through Saturday.
(Today through Saturday) High pressure continues to build over the area today and winds will gradually subside over the next 24 hours, at least over land areas. A ridge axis will move through the area Sat night into Sun morning.
342 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 A rather amplified upper air pattern exists across the CONUS at this time featuring an upper ridge from the Four Corners Region into the Northern Rockies, and a deep long wave trof centered through the east. A series of vort maxes will rotate south- southeastward within the cyclonic flow of the western portion of the trof and across eastern MO and western IL. Louis at 08z and was helping produce some scattered flurries and even lighter patchy freezing drizzle. Portions of southwest IL may not completely clear until this evening as high pressure slides into the area. A warm-up will commence on Saturday as low level south to southwest flow returns, and heights aloft rise in association with a ridge building into the MS Valley from the Plains.
As high pressure exits to the east today, trough energy approaches the west coast. Dry conditions continue over the entire CWA through this afternoon, however by this evening as trough energy moves onshore into California, light mainly mountain showers are expected to develop over NW Nevada.
Elsewhere, readings are in the 30s and 40s in the mountains with mainly 50s across the lower elevations. The amplified trough off the coast is finally beginning to lift out as the upstream kicker (Saturday's system) nears 40N/145W.
Conditions outside will be downright cold today as northerly wind gusts up to 25mph will keep the "feels like" temperatures below freezing across the northern half of Central Alabama. What will become a closed upper low will continue to move eastward toward the Carolinas along with the upper trough axis by Saturday morning. A widespread freeze is expected by daybreak Saturday as cold air advection continues, but lingering clouds could keep temperatures a tad warmer in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees. Clouds will slowly but surely decrease in coverage through the first half of the day, and we'll already begin to transition into upper level ridging as the pattern remains very progressive across the southern CONUS.
A 500 mb trough is centered over the FA this morning. As vorticity swings through on the backside of the trough and causes a slight uptick in ascent, thermal profiles show the column becoming more saturated around -10C as low level moisture lingers with cloud cover in place. Flurries likely linger into the afternoon after 15z as the trough moves more east of the FA with the better lift and moisture. Winds will be quite breezy once again due to the pressure gradient on the backside of low pressure centered over the NE CONUS with gusts over 20 mph possible. For the upcoming weekend, dry and tranquil conditions are in store as a ridge of high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.
A mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes area tonight is progged to dig south and eastward across the Ohio Valley into the Southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, an amplified mid/upper ridge over the Central Great Basin area will translate eastward into the Rockies with northwest mid/upper flow impacting the Central Plains.
This flow pattern will cause temperatures to be warmer than normal for the majority of the region. The valleys that hold on to the inversion could experience a wintry mix that includes freezing rain.
432 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023 Much cooler temperatures and scattered snow is expected today before dry conditions return for the weekend. Snow accumulations across the lowlands will be minimal given surface temperatures and the boundary layer failing to extend up into the DGZ. For the ridges; orographic enhancement should support a several of inches of snowfall, around 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts along the highest ridge tops. In addition; a well-mixed boundary layer and increasing pressure gradient should support increased wind today with the highest gusts just below advisory criteria along the the higher elevations. A return to more seasonable conditions should ensue thereafter, with high temperature in the 30s (lowlands) and 20s (ridges), and lows in the upper teens.
Should see some clearing in the afternoon as weak high pressure builds into the region.
Should see some clearing in the late afternoon or evening as weak high pressure builds into the region.
342 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2023 Lots of high cloudiness is streaming over the ridge axis while drier air at low/mid levels advances from the west. I suspect the high clouds will still let a lot of sun through, but this could help restrain the warming today for the snow covered and valley areas which are going to be off to a cold start again. We should get some southwestward creep of the cold air towards the warmer foothills this afternoon, which could bring some cooling to Boulder, the northern suburbs, and DIA late in the day but it probably won't really get into the middle of the city. A large upper level ridge of high pressure will bring mild and dry weather to North Central and Northeastern Colorado on Saturday.
Breezy southeast winds will continue today as a trough resides along the coast. A short wave trough embedded in the southwest flow will bring a round of showers across the region late today through tonight.
Have already seen a few periods of heavier snowfall today and once temps fall below freezing conditions could deteriorate across portions of the Upper Cumberland included in the Winter Weather Advisory. Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing tonight, with lows in the mid 20s. This will spell bad news for any liquid on roadways as they could freeze overnight, especially bridges and overpasses. Any lingering moisture is expected to move out by 6 AM tomorrow, although slick roads will remain a possibility through mid-morning until temps reach above freezing.
/13 (Now through Saturday) An upper trough over the eastern states will continue to move east through the period. On the backside of the upper trough, a deep layer northwest flow pattern will remain in place across the area. This will result in building high pressure at the surface with dry conditions and cool temperatures. Cold temps will continue across the area under building high pressure.
(This evening through Saturday night) High pressure over the central CONUS will continue to shift east over the next couple days.
The primary upper level trough that brought severe weather to the region yesterday continues to trek eastward across the state today. Similarly, temperatures are mainly in the 40s this afternoon, with areas across far southeast GA in the low 50s. Snow accumulations nearing 2 inches are possible mainly across the higher elevations. Expect temperatures tonight to dip down into the 20s across the north and near freezing further south.
Lake effect snow will diminish by midnight as the trough aloft exits, cold air advection becomes neutral, and low-level column dries. A ridge approaches from the west on Saturday. As a result, it will be a little warmer than today but still seasonably cool.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) It was chilly heading out the door this morning, but upper ridging and southerly flow today and tomorrow will keep temperatures above- normal through the short term. Highs today will be in the low 60s for most, warming to the upper 60s and 70s by Saturday. Despite the above-normal temperatures, strong radiational cooling tonight with light winds and clear skies will allow lows to fall to near freezing.
We start with a broad longwave ridge across the Rockies today building east across the Great Plains/Midwest and the Great Lakes on Saturday.
(Rest of Today) Light rain and a wintry mix has been reported across the area this morning, as low level wraparound moisture from yesterday's system increases across the lower Appalachians. Overall, little to no impacts are expected from the snow today as surface temperatures have remained above freezing, and this follows a period of above normal temperatures. With that said, some areas in higher elevations could dip below freezing today and will need to be monitored closely during any heavier snow showers. Some slushy areas on bridges and overpasses cannot be ruled out, but this largely depends on snowfall rates and near sfc temperatures.
1155 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 (Today through Saturday) Northwest flow aloft will be in place across Texas today, between east and west coast troughs. Weak ridging aloft will slide through the region tonight and Saturday. A low level ridge axis will move through the region today, with weak east to southeast winds developing west to east this afternoon and evening.
Expect Mobridge might break out late this afternoon or into the early evening. The upper ridge and southerly flow will draw in waa. However, this warmer air may also cause some snow to melt, increasing llm and resulting in morning fog which could have a moderating effect on highs.
Upper ridging clearing working its way into the Northern Plains viewable through water vapor and near-infrared satellite imagery. Higher cirrus rounding the crest of the upper ridge axis will continue to feed into our area. This is a result of warmer temps underneath the upper ridge working there way eastward.