Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
248 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with hot high pressure situated over the Desert Southwest and a ridge jutting northeast through the Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Farther west a trough over the coast of the Pacific Northwest is beginning to retrograde and drop southwest off the coast of California. Today into tonight: Strong west winds behind the front are expected along with possible lingering showers across the northern zones as the low exits to the east early today.
An upper high centered over the Four Corner/Southern Rockies will shift east toward the High Plains and build mid level heights gradually toward 594 decameters by Friday afternoon. The one positive impact from the low humidity will be pleasant conditions later tonight and early Friday morning. /Issued 337 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023/ /Friday Onward/ Friday morning could end up being one of the coolest mornings in quite a while for our eastern North Texas counties with lows in the low 60s! The far trailing edge of a backdoor heavily modified cooler airmass will build into the SE CONUS Thursday night/Friday morning and encroach on a few of our counties. Friday afternoon will be another hot day with highs near 100 (for all but NE Texas where they'll remain in the low 90s).
At the same time, upper level ridging will steadily amplify through the day Friday.
The forecast area will remain on the eastern edge of an upper ridge, which will shift over the area by Friday.
Upper level ridge will meander eastward with the axis settling over New Mexico and north Texas. We'll see mainly clear skies for the day with highs a few to several degrees warmer than yesterday. Friday, the first day of Fall, will be another degree or two warmer over today with mainly upper 90s for the region and a few more spots hitting 100F+.
An upper level low will develop and work into the area late this afternoon through Friday.
High pressure at the surface centered over the Great Lakes Region, will maintain north to northeast winds across the forecast area today. Overnight, a mid/upper level low will begin lifting north into Central Louisiana. Otherwise, look for lows tonight to range from the lower 60s to around 70. A mid-upper level low moving northward along the LA/TX coast will increase southerly flow across the region Friday through the weekend. Thunder or not, we are in much need for some widespread rain chances! High temps Friday will be more within climo values ranging from the low 80s-mid 90s.
Some scattered areas of elevated cu are expected to persist overnight across SE OK/adjacent sections of SW AR, and the Wrn sections of E TX, with areas of cirrus also lingering overnight through Thursday farther E over Deep E TX/N LA/SCntrl AR, near an upper low pressure area centered near LCH. Some cirrus and AC will likely linger through the end of the TAF period around the low as it begins to drift NE into ECntrl LA, mainly affecting NCntrl LA and SCntrl AR.
Mid-level ridging is centered over the southwest CONUS this afternoon with surface ridging across the Upper Midwest. The aforementioned ridge across the southwest CONUS translates east on Thursday making it over the central Plains by Friday and remaining there through the weekend.
352 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 (Issued 352 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023) Today through Friday night: High pressure over the region this morning will slowly move to the lower Great Lakes for this evening, while an upper ridge will move in from the west. The upper low and associated wave of low pressure just north of MT will track to James Bay Canada by Fri nt. The sly winds and warm advection will boost temps into the lower to middle 80s for Fri.
Things will begin to change as the ridge to the south of us shifts into the southern Plains and an upper level low moving into the Pacific Northwest and northern California become the dominate features in driving the weather. Friday still looks warm East of the Divide, but cooler West of the Divide with more cloud cover. There should be a lull in activity as the upper level low and ridge temporarily retrograde and push the best moisture into Idaho.
Key Message: 1) GRT LKS high pressure to make for an unseasonably cool night tonight, with back closer to normal temps for Thursday. A few cool air drainage locations in the north may even flirt with the lower 40s. A sunny, low humidity day with light east to southeast sfc winds under continuing influence of high pressure. Not quite as cool Thu night with slight return flow, then ongoing ridge migration off to the east(while getting enhanced by tropical system's compressional exhaust), and sub-inversion south winds and mixing boosting Friday highs back to the mid 80s. Still low humidity with curtailed crop evapo-transpiration and dried down sfc DPTs in the low to mid 50s in most areas.
The latest 31/06z RAP H500 analysis indicates the upper level center of high pressure is currently located near the AZ/NM state line at the time of this writing. This upper level high will shift eastward today and should be located near the TX/NM state line by this evening. Highs should be a few degrees warmer with the high pressure system moving over the Panhandles during the daytime hours.
1151 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 High pressure will bring clear skies into Thursday night as it builds into the Great Lakes. Low to mid level ridging will mark conditions for the remainder of the work week.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge centered across the Desert Southwest will slowly shift east today, closer to West Central Texas.
250 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Current surface analysis shows cold front slowly moving across eastern portions of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over southwest SK, with shower and thunderstorm activity remaining mostly north of the region overnight. Skies are mainly clear with temps ranging from the upper 40s and 50s over parts of northeast WY and the higher Black Hills to the 70s over south central SD.
Highs are expected to top out in the low to mid 70s which will should be the coolest day for many locations across eastern KY since late June. This will veer winds from the northeast to the southeast which will advect warmer air into the area. Skies will remain mostly clear with a few high clouds expected across the Cumberland Valley as a disturbance waffles over the lower Mississippi Valley. The period should start with a weak mid/upper level low centered over Louisiana, and ridging arcing around it from TX to MO & KY to the Carolinas.
925mb temps climb 2-3C across most of the area today (to between 16-19C), supporting highs in the mid and upper 70s, with slightly cooler readings near Lake Michigan due to an onshore wind. It will not be as chilly tonight, with lows falling into the mid 40s to low 50s, with some slightly warmer readings near the lake. as the high departs to the east, flow turns zonal over the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. 925mb temps get another 2-3C boost within the WAA regime, supporting highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with slightly cooler reading near Lake Michigan due to the continued onshore flow.
Temperatures should drop quickly through the 60s this evening, bottoming out in the low to mid 50s in most locations. Parts of southwest/south central Illinois which are closer to the center of the cold high pressure will probably drop into the upper 40s along with our usual cold spots in the Ozark Valleys. Area river water temperatures range from the mid 80s on the lower end of the Missouri to the mid 70s on some of our spring-fed streams. perhaps 3-4 degrees cooler in central and northeast MO due to the colder start of the day. Carney The trough over the eastern U. lifts out Thursday night into Friday morning which allows the upper level ridge to build back into the Mississippi Valley.
141 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Quiet, dry, and cooler weather continues today then warming through the weekend. High pressure at the sfc extends southwest from the Great Lakes region and keeps us dry with clear skies and slightly cooler temps today in the 70s and 80s. High pressure continues to dominate at the sfc while ridging aloft begins to expand eastward and amplify over the coming days.
An upper level low pressure system will form this weekend, advecting increased moisture to the Mid-South.
(This evening through Thursday night) A weak front will remain draped across the local area separating dry high pressure to the northwest and a warmer and more humid air mass over the northern Gulf. As the low drifts inland Friday, shower and thunderstorm activity should spread across the area. There should be a similar gradient in rainfall amounts with the highest amounts across areas generally across the Mississippi Coast.
(Today and tonight) Continue to see upper ridge build east and south across the southern Plains today with increasing heights. Meanwhile, pressure falls will occur across the high Plains in advance of developing western trough, which will shift our winds back around to the south today.
Tomorrow, a significant cooldown will begin and last through the weekend, with anticipated high temperatures being 10 degrees cooler than normal.
1251 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Upper level ridging centered over the Desert Southwest continues to gradually expand northeastward with broad subsidence and a much drier airmass now in place over the southern plains states. Weak surface ridging will keep winds light through the remainder of today and tonight with overnight lows near seasonal averages.
An upper high centered over the Four Corner/Southern Rockies will shift east toward the High Plains and build mid level heights gradually toward 594 decameters by Friday afternoon. The one positive impact from the low humidity will be pleasant conditions later tonight and early Friday morning. /NEW/ /Friday night through next Thursday/ Main highlight of the weekend continues to be the unseasonable hot temperatures across the region as the upper ridge dominates the weather pattern. Morning lows will range from the low 60s to mid 70s.
350 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build across our region through Friday before moving off the coast Friday night. A beautiful fair weather day is on tap as expansive high pressure builds into the region from the Upper Great Lakes. Temperatures will be on the cool side again today though still warmer than yesterday, topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon. Strong high pressure will drift from the eastern Great Lakes Friday to New England Friday night, providing dry weather and mainly clear skies to close out the week.
An upper level high centered over the Central and Southern Rockies will bring very warm and dry conditions through Thursday. For the rest of today, cumulus clouds will continue over the higher terrain, some of which will drift east off the higher terrain. Can't rule out a few high based showers/storms, over the higher terrain. Mountain valleys will fall into the 40s with 50s for the lower locations across the plains. The airmass will be slightly warmer, so expect highs over northeast Colorado to reach the mid to upper 90s. Friday, an upper level trough pushes into the west coast, inducing southwesterly flow aloft across Colorado.
Tomorrow, look for highs in the upper 90s to low 100s (closer to the lower 90s at the coast) again, low humidities (mainly in the 20s) and mostly light and variable winds. Lows both tonight and tomorrow night will be in the low to mid 70s inland for most spots, and we might be able to squeeze out an upper 60s to around 70 in/around the Crockett area.
347 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Pretty quiet week weatherwise across the region as we have high pressure at the surface with building ridge aloft. Cool dome of high pressure has centered itself over the region this morning leading to chilly temps in the 40s to start the day. Upper level ridge axis will remain to the west of the area through the day with heights only slowly climbing. 850mb trough axis will be departing but only slowly rebounding with temps increasing from around 9C to 12C today.
The only exception would be an isolated shower possible in the far southwest associated with an inverted trough ahead of a developing upper low over the middle Gulf Coast. A noticeably drier airmass will follow behind the front with a pleasantly cooler and dry day on tap for the northeast half of the area.
1132 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 High pressure bringing crystal clear skies to the Northwoods tonight. A touch of frost possible? High pressure over n central/ne WI will move slowly east, and be overhead Thursday morning. The high doesn't get overhead until Thu morning, so winds will try to stay up for part of the evening, at least. Ridging surface and aloft will transit the region Thursday, keeping our wx benign. An upper low crossing Canada will open up by the time it reach far northern Ontario late Friday.
Tomorrow, PoPs range from 20-40 percent for the afternoon as we return to a more diurnal convective pattern with the highest chances near the coast. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 70s Thursday morning and low 90s for the afternoon. (Thursday night through Friday night) High pressure begins to build in from the east on Friday. Temperatures will start in the low-mid 70s Friday morning and warm to the mid to upper 80s. Yet Friday night will be cooler with lows in the upper 60s for our AL & GA counties, and low 70s for our FL counties.
139 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Dry weather is expected through the holiday weekend courtesy of building high pressure. A decent gradient between high pressure parked over the Upper Great Lakes and low pressure associated with Idalia overnight will yield northeasterly winds 5-12 mph through this afternoon. For the remainder of the area, some low stratocumulus is likely this morning with seasonally inappropriate lake enhancement as air in the low 50s moves over Lake Erie, whose surface is currently in the low 70s. High pressure remains at the forefront of the forecast for the end of the work week into the weekend.
Discussion: High pressure sits across the Upper Midwest early this morning. High pressure at the surface is forecast to move from Wisconsin and Michigan into the eastern Great Lakes by Friday morning. Low temperatures on Friday morning will be in the lower 50s.
1201 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 (This evening through Thursday) The upper-level ridge will begin to push into West Central Texas tonight and usher in a warming trend into at least the the later part of this week. Thursday will be slightly warmer as the ridge begins to track further into our area, with afternoon highs reaching into the upper 90s to 101 and little to no chances for any precipitation.
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build across our region Thursday and Friday before moving off the coast Friday night. Otherwise, low temperatures will range from the lower 50s along the lake shores and southeast of Lake Ontario to the mid to upper 40s elsewhere. A large area of high pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes Thursday and Thursday night. A mid-level ridge will be overhead Friday with mostly sunny conditions across the eastern Great Lakes region.
143 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 High pressure will strengthen over the Great Lakes region tonight and keep a cool and dry airmass over the Ohio Valley through Thursday night. The high will continue to strengthen and shift to the southeast, settling over the PA/NY border at daybreak Friday. After this, temperatures will begin to warm under a building upper level high pressure system, continuing through the holiday weekend. A slight 2-3 degree bump in highs Thursday from today's readings will be found north of the Ohio, with little change over KY, far southeast IN, and the lower Scioto Valley. Over the weekend, H5 ridging broadens its extent over the central and eastern CONUS.
1144 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Temperatures will continue to warm this period as upper level high pressure center builds over Kansas.
Further upward tweaks were made down in SE OK where very dry conditions are likely contributing to the warmer temps there.
(Today) The influence of high pressure/subsidence can be seen with a clear radar and drier air showing up on nighttime RGB satellite imagery. This will help reinforce cooler temperatures despite clear skies, with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 80s.
An upper level ridge of high pressure could be seen across the southwest US, an upper level low spinning across Montana, another upper low spinning across Louisiana and lastly Tropical Storm Idalia moving out into the Atlantic Ocean. NBM temperature forecasts suggests highs in the upper 70s east of Springfield to the low to mid 80s as you travel west of Springfield.
Currently there is an upper level disturbance over far east TX and most of LA that will cutoff into an upper level low.
1213 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) As Idalia works off the Southeastern US Coast, broad mid-level low pressure persists across the western Gulf through the short term period with dry air aloft becoming drier into Thursday. Northeasterly winds have done very little to cool Deep South Texas today, but have brought slightly more comfortable conditions, with dewpoints into the low to mid 60s across Cameron and Hidalgo counties and mid to upper 50s elsewhere.
(Today and tonight) Nary a cloud was found early this morning under an expansive ridge. Unlike the scattered cumulus we saw yesterday afternoon, increased subsidence throughout the column today should secure crystal clear skies along with warmer temps. Tonight's lows will also fair milder as the core of mid-level ridging treks east across the TX Panhandle all the while light southerly surface winds prevail.
Only coastal locations are still ranging in the low to mid 70s. The upper stacked trough to our west will eventually cut off into an upper low by Fri and begin to sink back toward Dallas while a tropical wave(inverted trough/easterly wave) whatever one wants to call it, will then have an open door to move westward over the northern gulf coast.
651 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build across our region through Friday before moving off the coast Friday night. A pleasant fair weather day is on tap as expansive high pressure builds into the region from the Upper Great Lakes. Temperatures will be below normal again today, though despite the cooler start, will still average warmer than yesterday. Strong high pressure will drift from the eastern Great Lakes Friday to New England Friday night, providing dry weather and mainly clear skies to close out the week.
420 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 A hot and dry airmass will remain over the region with the center of the upper ridge over NM/AZ and light to moderate southwesterly flow aloft over CO. Mild and dry tonight with lows again in the low to mid 60s.
An upper level low dropping down into the region today will bring showers and cooler weather to western Washington.
635 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Tropical Storm Idalia will move away from the coast of the Carolinas this morning, while a cold front will move southeast and offshore.
638 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Expansive high pressure across the Great Lakes region and a very dry ambient airmass will sustain clear skies and light winds through the TAF period. Pretty quiet week weatherwise across the region as we have high pressure at the surface with building ridge aloft. Cool dome of high pressure has centered itself over the region this morning leading to chilly temps in the 40s to start the day. Upper level ridge axis will remain to the west of the area through the day with heights only slowly climbing. 850mb trough axis will be departing but only slowly rebounding with temps increasing from around 9C to 12C today.
An upper high centered over the Four Corner/Southern Rockies will shift east toward the High Plains and build mid level heights gradually toward 594 decameters by Friday afternoon. The one positive impact from the low humidity will be pleasant conditions later tonight and early Friday morning. /Issued 221 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023/ /Friday night through next Thursday/ Main highlight of the weekend continues to be the unseasonable hot temperatures across the region as the upper ridge dominates the weather pattern. Morning lows will range from the low 60s to mid 70s.
But the low-level kinematics are destructive to moisture convergence, compounded by decreasing flow. The lee of the Lower Keys may spark off something this afternoon, but well away from the island communities. Breezes will continue to diminish this afternoon and tonight as high pressure builds into the area. Over the weekend, high pressure over the southeastern United States and the remnants of Idalia near Bermuda will cause breezes to shift to the northeast.
A much drier air mass will filter into the region behind the departing cyclone. Temperatures will be below normal values for the last day of August with highs in the lower 80s. Skies will be mostly clear tonight allowing temperatures to fall into the lower 60s. Idalia will be well into the Atlantic Basin Friday morning with high pressure solidly ridging into the area and upper level ridging building over the eastern US.
430 AM PDT Thu Aug 31 2023 A developing low pressure system along the West Coast will bring cooling through the weekend with the greatest cooling on Friday.
629 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 (Today and tonight) Nary a cloud was found early this morning under an expansive ridge. Unlike the scattered cumulus we saw yesterday afternoon, increased subsidence throughout the column today should secure crystal clear skies along with warmer temps. Tonight's lows will also fair milder as the core of mid-level ridging treks east across the TX Panhandle all the while light southerly surface winds prevail.
Winds will turn a bit more easterly tonight as the high shifts eastward, and should again be fairly light.
255 AM PDT Thu Aug 31 2023 An unseasonably strong low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures, breezy onshore winds and increased shower and thunderstorm chances into the weekend. Trough developing along the West Coast today will deepen tonight into Friday as energy dropping south from Western Canada initiates development of unseasonably strong upper low progged to be over southwestern Oregon by early Friday morning.
552 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 (Today) The influence of high pressure/subsidence can be seen with a clear radar and drier air showing up on nighttime RGB satellite imagery. This will help reinforce cooler temperatures despite clear skies, with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 80s.
Meanwhile, a passing upper low far to our north and another near the Pacific northwest will be impacting the general flow regime over the western CONUS today. With an upper trough digging in over California, monsoon moisture will be pushed west of us once again.
515 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Updated Aviation Discussion Low pressure moving east across southern Saskatchewan today will maintain windy conditions through early this afternoon before winds decrease this evening.
520 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Tropical Storm Idalia will move away from the coast of the Carolinas this morning, while a cold front will move southeast and offshore.
343 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Low pressure moving east across southern Saskatchewan today will maintain windy conditions through early this afternoon before winds decrease this evening.
Precipitation has largely ended as the low pressure system slowly exits the region to the northeast. A low pressure system will begin to close off today over southern British Columbia and dig southward to the northern California border this weekend.
Noticeably cooler weather will spread across the area behind a cold front today.
By this afternoon temperatures will rise into the low to mid 80s, a few degrees below the climatological normals for this time of year.