Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
338 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Strong high pressure builds in through the first part of the weekend in continued dry conditions. High pressure is building down from southern Ontario this morning and will be over the Great Lakes region into the weekend. High temperatures will be cooler today in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the lower 40s. Overall, a quiet holiday weekend is in store as high pressure anchors over the Great Lakes.
The upper-level ridge remains parked across the central CONUS this afternoon between a trough across the southeast US and another over the Pacific Northwest. Another trough dives south through the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys pushing a backdoor surface front through the area late Thursday into Friday.
For today, similar to yesterday, a mid and upper level ridge remains in place across the central and northern Plains with troughing in the west and eastern CONUS. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s once again today with lows in 50s to around 60 tonight.
The stalled frontal boundary draped across the Treasure Coast waters will continue to sag south, as a low pressure system starts to develop over the waters along the boundary.
Northwest flow aloft will continue a fetch of dry air over the region and low level high pressure will suppress any convection that tries to develop.
Guidance was showing a significant cool-down of upper level temps (-11 to -13 C) for Friday earlier this week but this appears to have backed off, and the cooler temps will be displaced significantly to the north.
With no big synoptic changes in the forecast, expect temperatures on Thursday to be similar to yesterday with afternoon highs rising into the low to mid 80s across much of the region. The rinse-and- repeat forecast continues into late Thursday as thunderstorms are once again expected to develop across portions of the Texas Panhandle as a vorticity maxima rounds about the periphery of a mid-level ridge positioned in the lee of the Rockies.
1246 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) A mid level short wave trough moving through north-central New Mexico will move through the ridge present over the Panhandles tonight. However, there are some indications that another round of thunderstorms may move into the Panhandles from the west in association with another short wave trough moving this way from eastern New Mexico.
Hudson Bay high pressure will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes, with continued dry conditions for the end of the work week. Cooler readings will be found near Lake Michigan. temperatures did not fall as quickly as expected earlier in the night due to lingering cloud cover and winds, but have quickly fallen into the lower to middle 30s in far northern WI over the past couple hours. Another round of Frost Advisories will likely be needed across NC/far NE WI tonight, as temperatures drop into the lower to middle 30s. Although dew points may not be quite as low on Friday, warmer temperatures will push RHs into the teens again in northern WI.
326 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 High pressure will continue to build into the North Country today and prevail into the upcoming holiday weekend.
444 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 A ridge of high pressure should continue to bring warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky today, tonight, and Friday.
Northeasterly flow further strengthens across our coastal waters as an area of low pressure develops off the central FL Atlantic coast resulting in potential frequent Gale force gusts. This will allow for drier and cooler northerly flow across the local forecast area, decreasing rain chances for inland areas, while strengthening the local pressure gradient.
deepening into a closed upper low as it moves into NERN AR during the day Fri. cooler air into the state for Fri into the weekend. Lows by Fri night will drop down into the low 50s to around 60.
129 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Aviation The cold front will passing the region will keep temperatures cooler. The winds will remain gusty for the first half of the overnight period but as the frost moves southward and the high builds and the cold pool build the sfc will decouple. A cooler but dry day is in storm tomorrow.
334 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 A cool airmass will be over the area through tonight as Canadian high pressure builds into the region. High pressure centered near James Bay will expand over the Great Lakes providing fair weather through tonight. Warmest temperatures probably do no better than the lower 60s with higher terrain staying in the upper 50s.
Temperature will likely be a bit warmer today as more insolation should be realized and slightly higher upper heights gradually spread eastward.
227 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Dry conditions will begin today as high pressure builds into the area. Drier air is moving in from the north ahead of high pressure. An upper level low over northern New England and southern Quebec will linger today then push east on Friday as upper level ridging starts over the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be cooler than average with the upper level trough nearby. Lows tonight will be similar to this morning but clear skies and calm winds will let ground temperatures fall to near freezing. The upper level trough moves east on Friday with strong ridging building in.
The midwestern disturbance will push a weak cold front, located across Kentucky early this morning, into the region from the north today. Stuck close to NBM guidance with respect to PoPs, which limits rain chances to 30-40 percent and favors the higher terrain of southwest Virginia and the northeastern Tennessee mountains.
The forecast from then on should remain dry as the ridge axis to our west slides inches further into TX, but we cannot rule out some brief, isolated activity late Thursday afternoon with the northwesterly flow.
Night and morning clouds will persist before giving way to mostly sunny afternoons through the remainder of the week in response to an upper level trough over the West Coast. DialH (This evening through Thursday) The Bay Area and Central Coast remain under the influence of a broad upper level trough.
The short term weather pattern will consist of an upper level long wave trough over the western United States and an upper level ridge over the Plains.
The upper level low, that has hung around like an annoying house guest that won't go away, will continue to swirl over the Pacific Northwest on Friday. The models continue to have differences in the eventually movement of the low though.
The cool temperatures will be shortlived however, as temperatures rebound into the lower 80s by Memorial Day. Continued presence of low level thermal trough across southern Great Lakes with northeast flow drawing aggregate cool pool over Lakes Huron/Erie inland. KAOH may be a few degrees cooler than interior CWA due to this compound advection. Thermal moderation ensues Friday as heights begin to build surface/aloft, morning surface based radiational inversion easily mixes out into 2-3C warmer 925mb air. Blocking pattern continues as Upper Midwest ridge apex rexes initially broad cyclone over Southeastern States through the holiday weekend. Continued air mass transition into thermal ridge dominance over Great Lakes beneath strong stationary upper level anticyclone.
Surface ridging is in place for the start of the short term today and tonight. While temperatures are expected to be warmer today than yesterday, the humidity will be much lower with the lower dew points.
An upper level ridge sitting just east of the northern and central Plains is between two large upper troughs. High temperatures will range from the mid-70s west to the low 80s east. Overnight tonight as the area of high pressure expands slightly southward, rain chances across eastern portions of the forecast area (approximately east of Highway 281) drop significantly, while areas west still have a pretty good chance of rain. highs will again range from the mid 70s west to the low 80s east.
1047 PM PDT Wed May 24 2023 Night and morning clouds will persist before giving way to mostly sunny afternoons through the remainder of the week in response to an upper level trough over the West Coast. DialH (This evening through Thursday) The Bay Area and Central Coast remain under the influence of a broad upper level trough.
- Cooler on Friday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
102 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Dry weather and gusty winds are forecast for tonight as a cold front passes south.
(Today through Friday afternoon) As of this writing, a weak ridge centered over West Texas is allowing a short wave trough to move across the South Plains causing scattered severe storms just north of our county warning area. Unfortunately we can expect more of the same later this afternoon since the ridge will not be enough to suppress convection, and directional shear from southeast low level winds becoming west to northwesterly in the mid and upper levels will be tilting some updrafts once again bringing a threat for at least isolated severe storms.
A trough will remain quasi-stationary over the Intermountain West through the short- term, maintaining steady above-normal temperatures and active weather. Strong upper level flow, steep mid- level lapse rates, and monsoon moisture fetch will allow for destabilization and the development of thunderstorms again on Friday, especially over higher terrain as the upper low remains stationary.
142 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Cooler weather settle in through Friday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Backdoor cold front has cleared our area with cold/dry air advection now underway. However, continued to lean on the cooler side of guidance with lows around 40F based on upstream obs/strong CAA. Thursday will be a wonderful day for those that prefer temps a little on the cooler side. Already starting to see some drought feedback issues with high temps trending warmer and dewpoints trending lower though. Upper low cuts into the SE CONUS this weekend with strong ridge holding firm over the Great Lakes.
(Today through Friday) If you enjoyed the last couple of days, you can expect a fantastic run into the holiday weekend with high pressure in control across Deep South Texas. The seabreeze each afternoon will cut high temperatures a degree or two short of seasonal, with overnight lows a degree or two cooler than normal as well.
A dry, breezy pattern will continue over the next several days as upper level troughing persists over the western CONUS. This pattern will promote clear skies with dry conditions across the lower deserts today. Gusty winds are expected to persist for several hours overnight especially in the favorable windy locations across the higher terrain of southwestern Imperial County. From Friday into Memorial Day weekend we will continue to see warm and dry weather with occasional breeziness as the initial longwave trough weakens over the Intermountain West and a secondary 500 hpa low develops over Northern California.
(Rest of Today) Water vapor imagery this morning shows a trough digging south across the Southeast with an interesting circulation across northeast Alabama. Overall, a dry and warm day is expected for the Tennessee Valley with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 80s.
(Today and tonight) An upper level low remains over eastern Oregon and northern Idaho this morning with a trailing trough axis extending into central California. As such, stratus has once again filled into much of the region with temperatures generally holding in the low/mid 50s at this hour.
A trough located just west of the state is forecast by the majority of ensemble members to persist over the next 7 days.
722 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 A ridge of high pressure should continue to bring warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky today, tonight, and Friday.
Looking aloft, the mid to upper level trough that has brought us active weather the past few periods has moved slightly east. The trough axis is now situated over the Florida Keys, and KBYX is detecting a plethora of showers on the western side trying to edge into our forecast area. At the surface, the Keys continue to find themselves in an area of weak flow, so there is little relief from temperatures already in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the lower 70s.
Remnants of an old boundary remain situated across the FL Straits, with weak surface ridging centered over S FL.
635 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 A cold front moving south across the Mid Atlantic could bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge this afternoon.
310 AM MDT Thu May 25 2023 Satellite imagery continues to show an amplified trof from WA to CA and southerly flow over the central and northern Rockies. The upper trof over the Pacific NW keeps slowly encroaching into the Rockies a little more each day. We also need to address the high PWATS. Forcing may be a little better today and Friday with the proximity of upper low and associated jet energy rounding the bottom of trof into our region.
602 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Dry air is in place as an upper trough is keeping flow northerly. This is likely to continue today and tonight as a cold front sags south. Skies should be fairly clear and nighttime lows should cool into the lower 60s.
312 AM MDT Thu May 25 2023 Latest analysis shows the upper trough remains in place over the western states with the upper ridge over the great plains, shifted slightly eastward compared to yesterday.
650 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 A cool airmass will be over the area through tonight as Canadian high pressure builds into the region. High pressure centered near James Bay will expand over the Great Lakes providing fair weather through tonight. Warmest temperatures probably do no better than the lower 60s with higher terrain staying in the upper 50s.
658 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 A large area of high pressure in northern Ontario continues building into Lower Mi today and tonight while reinforcing cool and very dry air across the region. Northeastern CONUS trough will become a closed low over northern Maine with an associated ridge extending across the Great Lakes today. This will translate to a day with below normal temperatures in the low to mid 60s for inland areas and 50s across the Lake Huron shoreline areas.
933 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Strong high pressure builds in through the first part of the weekend in continued dry conditions. High pressure is building down from southern Ontario this morning and will be over the Great Lakes region into the weekend. High temperatures will be cooler today in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the lower 40s. Overall, a quiet holiday weekend is in store as high pressure anchors over the Great Lakes.
958 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 A cold front moving south across the Mid Atlantic could bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge this afternoon.
However easterly/onshore winds off the lake should keep it cooler by the lake. Will see another chilly night tonight under mostly clear skies, subsidence, and light winds, which will aid in ample radiative cooling and overnight lows bottoming out in the lower 40s with a few of the cooler locations dipping into the upper 30s. Friday is looking pretty similar to today with the exception of more of a southeasterly component to the winds, thus expecting slightly warmer temps in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows in the mid 40s.
A similar convective set up expected this afternoon as yesterday, with storm coverage isolated to the southwestern Great Basin as vorticity maxima continue to ride along the seemingly stagnant upper- level trough over the western CONUS. HREF points to the northern ridges of the White Mountains with 50 to 60 percent chance of over an inch of snowfall accumulation this afternoon.
Similar to the previous couple days, additional chances for showers and storms are expected to impact western Oklahoma and western north Texas, as another round of storms develop in the High Plains and off the Caprock and move eastward through the evening.
907 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 A cool airmass will be over the area through tonight as Canadian high pressure builds into the region. high pressure centered near James Bay will expand over the Great Lakes providing fair weather through tonight.
A weakening cold front over the Tennessee River Valley shifts south, to near the northern Gulf coast. High temperatures are expected to range from the low 80s over the northeastern corner of the forecast area to mid/upper 80s over inland southeast Mississippi to the coastal counties of Alabama.
* Cooler weather today with highs around 70 * Increased fire risk with dry and windy conditions Cooler, dry, and windy conditions expected for today as Canadian high pressure settles in over the region. High pressure will become centered over the Great Lakes the next couple days placing Indiana in an area with a strong northerly pressure gradient. Temperatures will also be noticeable cooler today with strong cold air advection in the lower levels. Models and ensembles are continuing the trend that the stagnant central CONUS ridge will likely keep an upper low that will develop in the southwest portion of trough, associated with a New England and Canadian Maritimes upper low, far enough southeast to keep showers away through Memorial Day.
There is high confidence (80 percent) that destabilization will occur again this afternoon lending to the redevelopment of convection, especially as partial sunshine midday would add to CAPE while the low-level moisture supply remains strong.
(Today) Latest near term model consensus suggests that a positively- sheared mid-level trough (centered across the southern Appalachians yesterday evening) will retrograde south- southwestward into southeastern AL by late this afternoon. At the surface, a sharpening inverted trough is predicted to lie from east-central AL into northeastern TN, and may provide sufficient low-level convergence for the generation of isolated showers beginning early this afternoon. Steering flow between the ridge to our north and trough to our south will remain from the northeast at 10-20 knots, perhaps allowing some of the shower activity to spread southwestward into the TN Valley late this afternoon. With point forecast soundings indicating the presence of a weak mid- level subsidence inversion associated with the ridge aloft and MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg, we do not expect any lightning (if showers indeed occur).
1023 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Below-normal temperature is expected today as cooler air moves down from the north.
525 AM MDT Thu May 25 2023 Latest analysis shows the upper trough remains in place over the western states with the upper ridge over the great plains, shifted slightly eastward compared to yesterday.
611 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) As of this writing, a weak ridge centered over West Texas is allowing a short wave trough to move across the South Plains causing scattered severe storms just north of our county warning area. Unfortunately we can expect more of the same later this afternoon since the ridge will not be enough to suppress convection, and directional shear from southeast low level winds becoming west to northwesterly in the mid and upper levels will be tilting some updrafts once again bringing a threat for at least isolated severe storms.
(Today through Friday) Dry conditions expected to continue through the first half of the short term as mid/upper lvl trough and backdoor front slowly sags southward across the area. Should be another pleasant day under mostly sunny skies and highs reaching into the low 80s. Moving into Thursday night and Friday morning, a complex synoptic pattern kicks off over the area as the mid/upper lvl trough continues to push southward into N FL. Meanwhile, at the surface, a low pressure system begins to deepen within the base of the 500mb jet streak/PVA off the eastern FL coast. Most likely places to see some form of precip (if any) will be along the higher elevations within the more saturated mid/upper lvls by late Friday afternoon.
840 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 A cool airmass will be over the area through tonight as Canadian high pressure builds into the region. High pressure centered near James Bay will expand over the Great Lakes providing fair weather through tonight. Warmest temperatures probably do no better than the lower 60s with higher terrain staying in the upper 50s.
The upper level low, that has hung around like an annoying house guest that won't go away, will continue to swirl over the Pacific Northwest on Friday. The models continue to have differences in the eventual movement of the low though.
514 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Currently a weak, dry cold front is laid out from northeast Miser, through the Metro East, and into southern Illinois. Most of the forecast area will end up on the cool side of the front with highs in the mid to upper 70s, while central and southeast Missouri will be south of the front and temperatures will peak in the low 80s. While the passage of the cold front through the remainder of the forecast area today will drop temperatures and dewpoints, the main thrust of dry air won't arrive until overnight Thursday into Friday. At the surface the high over the Great Lakes will persist through the weekend, and combined with the lack of moisture return, will keep the holiday weekend dry.
611 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023 (Today through Friday) If you enjoyed the last couple of days, you can expect a fantastic run into the holiday weekend with high pressure in control across Deep South Texas. The seabreeze each afternoon will cut high temperatures a degree or two short of seasonal, with overnight lows a degree or two cooler than normal as well.
645 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Northeasterly flow continue to bring drier air over southeast Georgia and northeast Florida throughout today as the area of low pressure over the Florida peninsula forms offshore and begins to progress northward. Daytime convection is expected to subside in the evening with overnight onshore flow associated with the developing low pressure system out over adjacent waters bringing showers with possible thunderstorms onshore by early Friday morning. High temperatures today will rise into the lower 80s with overnight low temperatures will drop down into the 60s over inland areas and in the lower 70s for areas along the coastline.
605 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Strong high pressure builds in through the first part of the weekend in continued dry conditions. High pressure is building down from southern Ontario this morning and will be over the Great Lakes region into the weekend. High temperatures will be cooler today in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the lower 40s. Overall, a quiet holiday weekend is in store as high pressure anchors over the Great Lakes.
Details: Tonight: Sprawling high pressure centered across the Great Lakes region will provide the area with ideal radiational cooling effects. Lows will bottom out in the lower to mid 40s at most locations.
A few showers are likely mainly in the higher elevations and SW Virginia this afternoon due to surface heating. With a weak cold front positioned just south of the region, dew points will remain low again tomorrow in the 50s. A strong ridge is over the Upper Midwest with high pressure anchored over the Great Lakes.
327 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 After this morning's back-door FROPA, it has been a gorgeous day across the region with clear skycover and much drier and cooler air. Post-frontal air mass with cool NE flow is to thank for the nice conditions today, with KY Mesonet obs showings max temps in the low 70s across the Bluegrass and mid to upper 70s across south-central Kentucky. This will feature a Rex Block pattern with an upper level high over the Great Lakes and the upper low over the TN Valley.
A ridge of high pressure should continue to bring warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky today, tonight, and Friday.