Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
630 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 (Today through Thursday) The center of the Subtropical Ridge drifts to the east over eastern Texas today and into Louisiana on Thursday. Although the center of the Ridge drifts off to the east, the portion of the Ridge over South Central Texas is strong enough that subsidence and a drier than seasonally normal airmass will inhibit convection. The lowest levels of the airmass will be sufficiently moist for a pattern of overnight into early morning stratus. We will issue another Rangeland Fire Danger Statement for the Rio Grande Plains into Edwards Plateau due to breezy conditions combining with the low humidities due to mixing this afternoon into early evening, as well as drying vegetation.
An upper trough east of the Cascades will shift into the northern Rockies today as high pressure aloft rebuilds into the Pacific Northwest. A weak system passing to our north early in the weekend will bring some slight cooling before the upper ridge strengthens again and temperatures rise to well above normal for the upcoming holiday.
The Florida Keys remain sandwiched between two high pressure cells, one over the Gulf and another over the North Atlantic.
One more day of thunderstorm chances over the mountains is expected today before ridging and subsidence lead to drying and more stable conditions. As the lingering trough gradually shifts to the south and east, the primary thunderstorm risk this afternoon and evening will be in the Sierra and southern Cascades from the Mt Lassen area southeastward. Thereafter, heat will be the primary focus for the remainder of the week as ridging builds in from the eastern Pacific warming the airmass and further suppressing the marine layer.
330 AM PDT Wed Jun 28 2023 A rapid warming trend will take place this week due to high pressure aloft.
447 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Today and Tonight: A upper ridge over Texas is helping to steer MCSs along the eastern periphery, which has kept our weather unsettled. An MCS late yesterday afternoon dropped temperatures and dew points to the low 70s across the area. Increasingly dangerous heat will continue today as the ridge continues to build eastward. Any MCS that does develop should clear the area by tonight and give way to drier conditions, especially under the influence of the ridge.
404 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a weak cold front moves through the forecast area. A weak cold front, currently oriented west-east and analyzed across the central Canadian Prairies, is expected to drift south through the forecast area this afternoon and evening. This is also where the highest projected instability is located, with MLCAPE forecast to be 1000-1500 J/kg. Thus, the area with the highest likelihood of a few strong to severe thunderstorms is the James River Valley, where the front will reach later in the day and where there is the most favorable overlap of instability and what marginal shear exists. Even with the cold front passage, highs will be similar to yesterday, in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
641 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 A warm front will bring a return of humid air along with very hot temperatures for the remainder of this week into the upcoming weekend.
528 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 The upper level trough continues to slowly progress east nearing the CWA from the west. Severe weather is not expected as any of the higher parameters will be well east of the CWA, but small hail and some gustier winds are still possible with any that become a bit stronger. Otherwise, afternoon temperatures at or just below average once again Wednesday with slight breezes expected at most 10-20mph across much of the CWA outside of the higher terrain. Rinse and repeat again on Thursday as the aforementioned trough makes little progress eastward.
/NEW/ Update: After another dangerously hot day today, slight improvement is expected on Thursday as high pressure starts to lessen its grip over the region. 30 Previous Discussion: /Through Thursday/ The 595 decameter center of a 500mb ridge will remain directly overhead today, keeping the excessive heat going for at least one more day. The ridge axis will move slowly east through Wednesday night and become centered over Louisiana on Thursday, which may lower both max temperatures and heat indices slightly.
613 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) A strong upper level ridge that has been set up over TX and the south central US will start to push east and is going to bring a major warm up for us. Dew points will also be pushing into the low to mid 70s by Thursday bringing heat indices 100-110. Thunderstorms will develop to our north along a cold front and will likely grow upscale into an MCS.
610 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) Once again, the forecast basically remains the same (Heat! Heat! Heat!) as mid/upper level ridging continues to dominate our area. Late night through early morning low clouds and possible fog (low temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s) followed by hot, humid and mostly sunny days (highs in the lower 90s at the coast and in an upper 90s to lower 100s range inland) can be expected.
729 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 (Today through Thursday) In the mid to upper levels, a strong ridge continues to build over the Southern Plains, while troughing extends from the Northeast US down over the western Atlantic, off to our east. At the surface, a front is slowly moving across the SE US, with high pressure over the northern Gulf. High temps today will be in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat index values in the 103-108 range. Overnight lows will remain mild, dropping into the low 70s inland, and in the upper 70s near the coasts. Thursdayâs temperatures will generally be a degree or two cooler than today, with peak heat index values remaining over 100.
720 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 A cold front will push off the coast and deteriorate today as high pressure begins to build in from the west. High pressure remains in control into late week. At the surface, the deteriorating front remains near the coast, while high pressure begins to build in from the west.
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Dry weather is expected today and Thursday under high pressure. Otherwise, no precipitation is forecast today, as subsidence increases due to a building ridge. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures continue Thursday as high pressure transitions across the region.
936 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 High pressure will build across the region today and Thursday, bringing dry weather. For the end of the week into the weekend, rain chances return with low pressure deepening to our west. The mid and upper level trough stretching from the Great Lakes has moved east this morning, allowing for northwesterly wind flow. Ultimately we should have mostly sunny skies as high pressure builds in today from the Ohio Valley, bringing us a rain-free day with lower humidity levels. Highs should range from the low to upper 70s in the mountains, and to the low to mid 80s for the Piedmont.
448 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the central Plains, with a trough just east of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows flattening ridge shifting east of the region, with large scale trough over the west coast and Great Basin region. Southwesterly flow extends eastward into the high plains now. An active weather pattern will continue through the latter part of the week as the trough to the west slowly moves east through the Plains.
631 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 (Today and tonight) The hottest temperatures of the season so far are expected later today for much of the area as strong upper ridging and downsloped southwesterly surface winds push temperatures over 100 degrees areawide.
236 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Continued strong ridging/subsidence aloft will make convection quite difficult to come by and mainly confined to the east where it can occur through Thursday. With the ridging, the main story will continue to be the heat. /GG/ A strong upper level high pressure system will continue to gradually make its way eastward along the Gulf Coast.
Gusty and dry southerly winds do make it feel a little "cooler," though they are also creating pockets of elevated fire weather where our fading fuels are somewhat receptive. The subtropical high centered over the Arklatex will continue to edge eastward as troughing over the western CONUS slowly approaches.
151 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Dry weather is expected today and Thursday under high pressure. Otherwise, no precipitation is forecast today, as subsidence increases due to a building ridge. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures continue Thursday as high pressure transitions across the region.
Late this afternoon and tonight: Early afternoon surface analysis indicates a weak front from northwest IA to south-central NE with a pre-frontal trough situated east of a Fremont-Lincoln-Beatrice line.
A weak low pressure system is moving across west central and southwest Montana today, and with plenty of moisture to work with, it's been causing a pretty steady rain. Tomorrow a ridge starts to build over the region, however, with the ample supply of moisture in the region we expect daytime heating will be able to cause another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
1226 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 (The rest of today ) Dangerous heat indices are expected to climb into the 105 to 110 degree range this afternoon as upper high builds into the ArkLaTx region.
With high pressure in place tomorrow, dry weather and mostly sunny skies are expected with precipitation chances returning this weekend. The cold front is through the area with west to northwest winds across the region. Decided to put haze in the forecast rather than smoke because much of the reduced low level visibility is from the high moisture content mixing with the smoke. Fog was also added to the valleys as the skies should mostly clear with high pressure building in. Tomorrow into tomorrow night is looking dry with high pressure in place.
Min RH values will be in the 5-10 percent range in the lower elevations and between 10-18 percent in the mountains through the weekend.
(Rest of today through Thursday) Rinse and repeat conditions today as a deep-layered area of high pressure continues to build over the Gulf of Mexico, slowly encroaching into the Florida peninsula. Convective initiation will most likely occur along the sea breeze convergence front once the breeze comes in, then shifting inland and towards the Lake Okeechobee area, where there will be the highest chances for storms to develop. Another couple of days of hot heat await South Florida through the short term, with high temperatures reaching the low-mid 90s and heat indices in the lower 100s. Warm temperatures are also likely overnight, with the lows in the upper 70s along coastal areas and low 70s over the interior.
238 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 A broad area of low pressure slowly moves east of our region today with lingering clouds and spotty showers. High pressure builds into the region tonight and Thursday. A broad area of low pressure will continue to slowly drift east into eastern New England later today and tonight. As a result, high temperatures will struggle to get into the low 70's across most of the area. Clouds decrease tonight as high pressure builds into the area. Highs may end up a couple degrees cooler though due to the haze with only 70's and a few spots near 80 for highs after starting out in the 50's.
Temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s will result in heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range by tomorrow afternoon. Warm moist air south of this boundary across MO should interact with the boundary later tonight, with a large storm complex developing on the nose of the low level jet somewhere over IA. Highs will be in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s, resulting in heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range.
1218 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) A strong upper level ridge that has been set up over TX and the south central US will start to push east and is going to bring a major warm up for us. Dew points will also be pushing into the low to mid 70s by Thursday bringing heat indices 100-110. Thunderstorms will develop to our north along a cold front and will likely grow upscale into an MCS.
A weak funnel cloud has been reported just outside our CWA, and will have to watch the trough axis as it moves into our northwestern counties this evening.
Additionally there will be a cold front move through tomorrow morning.
101 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 The latest water vapor images and 500-mb height analysis show an upper low over southwestern MT/northeastern ID with a trough in the West and flat ridge across the central CONUS.
The pattern remains unchanged as a mid-level ridge continues to remain fairly stationary over Deep South Texas. Temperatures look to be a degree or two cooler tomorrow. With that said the lowest humidity values and the stronger 20 ft winds do not occur at the same time or the same area for more than an hour or so.
Apparent temps this afternoon will peak out in the low 100s across areas from Pratt to Ashland and Medicine Lodge. Thursday while still moist with respect to dew points, wonât likely be as warm on a widespread basis, owing to increased clouds and potential impact from the cold front moving south today. Meanwhile this afternoon, 1500-2000 j/kg CAPE develops ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary over west central Kansas, in a moderately high LCL/LFC environment with a limited area of steep low level lapse rates ahead of the front. The HREF ensemble members all develop some semblance of convection from very isolated and limited in areal coverage to a lot more clustered and developing from the highway 25 area northeast towards Rush county or Hays by late evening.
244 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Dry weather with moderating temperature is expected through Thursday under the influence of high pressure. Increasing subsidence as high pressure builds in from the east will continue to erode area stratocu and ridge line stratus today as pressure heights begin to rise aloft.
923 AM PDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Slightly cooler today, with noticeable warming developing tomorrow, and very hot conditions likely across inland areas by this weekend. A trough of low pressure, centered over the West Coast this morning, will move through the Intermountain West today and Thursday.
Ridging will remain in place through Thursday and will allow temperatures to stay near the century mark for most areas of the CWA. Td's are also rather high ranging in the low to mid 70s across much of the CWA. Areas east of the Flint Hills are the most likely area to reach the higher heat indices Thursday.
Although we are a few degrees cooler than yesterday, we do still have several hours of heating left.
Strong UL high pressure ridge remains parked over the Lone Star State and will continue to dominate the pattern in the short term.
Warmer and drier weather is expected for the remainder of the week, with temperatures likely reaching 90 for most low elevation areas. Widespread showers and thunderstorms have developed across North Central and Southwestern Montana as broad upper level troughing lingers across the area. Heading into tomorrow and through the end of the week, upper level ridging will begin to build into the Northwestern US, which will bring an end to the daily showers and thunderstorms that we've seen the past few days, along with a notable increase in temperatures.
A warm front will continue to move east across the region tonight. Behind the warm front, hot and very humid air will remain over the Mid-South for the next few days. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across eastern sections of the region on Thursday as the warm front finally moves east of the Mid-South.
Otherwise, another hot day is in store with mid/upper level ridging leading to maximums in the mid/upper 90s and heat indices 100-115. /GG/ Today and Tonight: A upper ridge over Texas is helping to steer MCSs along the eastern periphery, which has kept our weather unsettled. An MCS late yesterday afternoon dropped temperatures and dew points to the low 70s across the area. Increasingly dangerous heat will continue today as the ridge continues to build eastward. Any MCS that does develop should clear the area by tonight and give way to drier conditions, especially under the influence of the ridge.
(The rest of today ) Dangerous heat indices are expected to climb into the 105 to 110 degree range this afternoon as upper high builds into the ArkLaTx region.
A trough of low pressure extending from western Montana through southwest Idaho is firing showers and thunderstorms across the central mountains this afternoon. On Thursday, the trough of low pressure moves over southeast Idaho. The better moisture is east of the low, so once again, chances for storms looks isolated and confined to the higher elevations of the central mountains, perhaps around the Island Park and Bear Lake regions.
As ridge of high pressure moves east of the area tonight, winds will becomes SE, and this should prevent the somewhat more pristine air to the north from advancing significantly farther south through lower Michigan, and as a result forecast will continue to include areas of smoke through Thursday. Otherwise, attention turns to potential for (still much needed) showers and storms, as weak front/trough currently extending from Minnesota to eastern Nebraska moves east tonight, weakens further, and effectively stalls across the region.
Upper ridging will build over the western U. This will cut off Pacific moisture and the associated large scale subsidence should lead to limited convective potential as well as warmer temperatures this weekend.
The core of the ridge at 500 mb moves from east Texas to northern Louisiana by 12z/Thu and JAN by 00z/Fri. With the ridge still over the same basic place as it was yesterday, bumped the temperatures up a degree or two, to around the 50 PCT. Thought about going persistence, but there has been a definite downward trend on the highs. Thursday, with the core of the high moving east, the temperatures, will continue the downward trend.
150 PM PDT Wed Jun 28 2023 A rapid warming trend will take place this week due to high pressure aloft.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ The center of a strong, anomalous mid-level ridge remains overhead this afternoon leading to excessive heat and persistent dry weather across North and Central Texas. The mid-level ridge axis will gradually shift east toward southern Arkansas/northern Louisiana during the overnight. As high-pressure begins to ease its grip over the region, slightly "cooler" temperatures will allow for the Excessive Heat Warning to be downgraded to a Heat Advisory across much of the area and expired completely across portions of western Central Texas on Thursday.
/22 (Now through Thursday) Hot temperatures are expected through the period as an upper ridge continues to build into the region. Cannot rule out another potential MCS on Thursday (passing mostly west of the area?), though this looks even less likely given the increasing subsidence effects of the ridge building into the region.
132 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 High pressure remains in control thru Thursday. Satellite imagery shows low strato cu dissipating across the eastern mountains, while afternoon cu develops across the lowlands. High pressure remains in control providing dry and cool conditions through the period. Near normal low temperatures expected tonight, generally in the lower 60s lowlands, ranging into the upper 40s highest elevations. It will feel hot Thursday afternoon, with temperatures reaching the upper 80s lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s highest elevations. Starting Thursday, a disturbance will ride along the periphery of a high pressure system over the deep south and Gulf. The disturbances' low pressure system at the surface will promote southerly flow increasing temperatures as warm air advection overcomes the area.
Persistent surface ridging from the western north Atlantic continues to promote light and variable breezes across the island chain and offshore marine platforms. This feature has allowed high temperatures to continue clocking in at the lower 90s. As general wind flow expected to remain light and variable into tonight as this ridging squats over our area, PoPs will continue to be slight at best into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow, rain chances will start to rise again as troughing noses south down the east coast into southern Florida. As we approach this weekend, the ridging located on the northwest Gulf coast will continue to march east.
A broad trough, stretching from Montana southwest through southern California, will continue to edge eastward tonight into the weekend as riding works in from the west. Shear is on the weaker side today (0-6km Bulk Shear of 15-25 kts) but precipitable water values remain on the high side (115-120 percent of normal), so any thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall.
1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 (Today and tonight) The hottest temperatures of the season so far are expected later today for much of the area as strong upper ridging and downsloped southwesterly surface winds push temperatures over 100 degrees areawide.
1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) Once again, the forecast basically remains the same (Heat! Heat! Heat!) as mid/upper level ridging continues to dominate our area. Late night through early morning low clouds and possible fog (low temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s) followed by hot, humid and mostly sunny days (highs in the lower 90s at the coast and in an upper 90s to lower 100s range inland) can be expected.
113 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 (Rest of today through Thursday) Rinse and repeat conditions today as a deep-layered area of high pressure continues to build over the Gulf of Mexico, slowly encroaching into the Florida peninsula. Convective initiation will most likely occur along the sea breeze convergence front once the breeze comes in, then shifting inland and towards the Lake Okeechobee area, where there will be the highest chances for storms to develop. Another couple of days of hot heat await South Florida through the short term, with high temperatures reaching the low-mid 90s and heat indices in the lower 100s. Warm temperatures are also likely overnight, with the lows in the upper 70s along coastal areas and low 70s over the interior.
At 1 PM CDT, skies are mostly sunny and temperatures have warmed into the 70s and at some locations up into the low 80s. The light northwesterly boundary layer winds during the short term forecast period should serve as a neutral air advection wind, holding the warmer air to the west at bay, while keeping the much cooler Canada- sourced air to the northeast from back-dooring into the CWA.
One last gusty day is in store for portions of Arizona as the trough over the Great Basin begins to move eastward. Temperatures today should be a bit cooler as well with the core of the low nearby.
1213 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 A warm front will bring a return of humid air along with very hot temperatures for the remainder of this week into the upcoming weekend.
1239 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 (Today through Thursday) The center of the Subtropical Ridge drifts to the east over eastern Texas today and into Louisiana on Thursday. Although the center of the Ridge drifts off to the east, the portion of the Ridge over South Central Texas is strong enough that subsidence and a drier than seasonally normal airmass will inhibit convection. The lowest levels of the airmass will be sufficiently moist for a pattern of overnight into early morning stratus. We will issue another Rangeland Fire Danger Statement for the Rio Grande Plains into Edwards Plateau due to breezy conditions combining with the low humidities due to mixing this afternoon into early evening, as well as drying vegetation.
Smoke and haze persist as the flow around high pressure brings air originating over extensive Eastern Canada wildfires. Temperatures are forecast to increase as a dome of high pressure builds in the upper atmosphere to the southwest, while the low level flow becomes southerly.