Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
230 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023 With a surface pressure ridge axis now positioned across western KY into IN, southerly to south-southeasterly surface winds and low- level WAA have become established across the CWA. On Sunday, these clouds will likely reduce insolation but modest mixing and continued WAA should allow high temps to be up to 10 F warmer than today and in the mid-40s to mid-50s F. With the domination of an upper-level ridge overhead through Sunday afternoon, dry conditions will accompany the warming temps.
1123 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2023 (Today through Sunday) Weak ridging aloft will move across through the region today. Some high cirrus riding over the top of the ridge will move across northern areas of the forecast area today. A west to southwest flow aloft will develop over the area Sunday between the ridge sliding east and broad toughing across the western CONUS.
Overnight lows will be mainly in the low to mid 40s tonight due to better mixing from these winds, and moisture will also increase.
An elongated upper level trough stretches from the Aleutian Islands SE towards the N California Coast this morning. Mostly cloudy skies today will yield a few sun breaks before sunset when mid and high level cloud cover increases in response to the closer proximity of the upper level low. Highs today fairly mild for mid-Jan in the low to mid 50s. Upper level troughing will remain over the region through the weekend for additional showers.
118 PM MST Sat Jan 14 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Plains with embedded short wave bringing some light precip to eastern MT/western ND, and an upper trof along the west coast. At the surface, broad trof covers the western Dakotas with downslope flow bringing very mild temps to the area.
Dry conditions across east central Florida as an area of high pressure begins to settle across the peninsula.
MM/25 (Now through Sunday) Deep layer northwesterly flow will prevail through this evening as an upper longwave trough over the eastern states pushes eastward over the Western Atlantic. This will bring return of light southeasterly winds and warmer temperatures on Sunday, with highs ranging from 57 to 62 degrees.
240 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2023 Discussion/Marine -Dry weather into Sunday night An area of high pressure over Arkansas today will track northeast along the Appalachians into Sunday.
So, our forecast is slightly cooler that previous forecasts owing to trends in cloud cover, but now as low as the lowest end of the model suite. For Sunday, mean ridging placement should support at least a 10 degree warm-up compared to today, and there's an argument to be made for even warmer. At least low 40s seem achievable, but we have nudged the forecast closer to the higher percentile blended and statistical model guidance which handles these situations fairly well, typically. Cirrus will increase at the downstream/ascending end of deeper moisture plume with the next upstream trough.
These downslope winds will also help to keep overnight temperatures warmer than areas west of the Coteau. An area of high pressure is making its way across the region this weekend bringing southwesterly winds and above normal temperatures. Temperatures at 850mb will be around 12 degrees C (approximately 55 degrees F) but if those warmer temperatures don't get mixed down to the surface then we won't see as much of a warm up. Sunday night, a low pressure system makes its way northeast towards the region switching winds around to the north.
With little cloud cover and light winds in those areas, overnight lows should bottom out near freezing. This will result in warmer temps across the CWA, with highs ranging from the mid 60s in our eastern zones, to lower 70s across East Texas.
(Through Sunday) We'll remain in a similar pattern as today heading into tomorrow as high pressure settles over the region.
953 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2023 Dry conditions along with seasonably chilly temperatures are expected into Sunday as high pressure moves across the region.
534 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023 With a surface pressure ridge axis now positioned across western KY into IN, southerly to south-southeasterly surface winds and low- level WAA have become established across the CWA. On Sunday, these clouds will likely reduce insolation but modest mixing and continued WAA should allow high temps to be up to 10 F warmer than today and in the mid-40s to mid-50s F. With the domination of an upper-level ridge overhead through Sunday afternoon, dry conditions will accompany the warming temps.
Even so, high temperatures are forecast to be ~15 deg F above average for mid-January given the presence of a low-level thermal ridge. If the cloud cover is less widespread and dense than forecast, temperatures could even be warmer than forecast.
640 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Showers extending from the Chicago area to northwest Ohio have developed along a weak mid level short wave north of a surface warm front. The elevated portion of the warm front will advance into southern Michigan overnight. Early afternoon observations and model initialization fields indicate mid level moisture transport was strong enough to support new daytime elevated convection in southern WI back toward the surface warm front in IA/IL. The warm front is not well defined at the surface in Lower Mi by Wednesday morning within a weaker pressure gradient compared to upstream this afternoon. The mid level ridge builds overhead and becomes diffuse due to the central Plains circulation as it moves into the mid MS valley. Highs in the lower 70s are right on normal values for mid September.
658 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Building high pressure will provide dry conditions through the week, with potential for foggy river valleys each morning.
Highs in the low to mid 80s tomorrow. Lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s, with highs in the low to mid 80s with relatively low moisture around.
341 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023 A West Coast split flow pattern persists today with the southern stream upper low just approaching the SoCal area late this afternoon. outflow driven storms coming off the high plateaus. This shift in the flow aloft will be bring in drier air and wind which will bring a downturn in the convection but increase the threat of localized critical fire weather conditions to some of the lower elevations. The low to our Southwest will be shearing out across our CWA tomorrow night with some isolated convection forming through the predawn hours as it moves through.
High pressure remains the dominant weather feature this week keeping conditions warm and dry throughout the period. Any precipitation is expected to remain west of the IL/IN state line as subsidence under the high and dry low to mid-levels does not support precipitation sustaining itself further east. Another warm, mid-September day expected tomorrow due to a building low and mid-level ridge over the area and southerly warm air advection. A quasi-rex block pattern is setting up over the Eastern CONUS with ridging over the Great Lakes and Northeast and weak troughing over the Southeast. Despite warm air advection and a dry PBL, the lowering sun angle this time of year and the potential for clouds blocking solar heating may make it difficult to reach the lower 80s.
601 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) As upper-level ridging continues throughout the short term, dry conditions can be expected to continue tonight. Above-normal daytime highs are expected Wednesday as temperatures are expected to climb into the lower to mid 90s near the coast to the mid to upper 90s inland with overnight lows dropping into the lower to upper 70s.
Today, the Lower Keys experienced slightly cooler temperatures in the lower 90s due to the presence of clouds. In contrast, temperatures in the Upper and Middle Keys reached the low to mid 90s. Tonight, there will be a slight increase in winds across the Florida Keys due to an easterly wind surge caused by the strengthening of the ridge east of the Bahamas. During the night, temperatures will be in the lower 80s.
An upper low will move south into the Pacific Northwest late tonight into tomorrow morning. As the upper low moves southeast into east central Oregon. bringing overnight low temperatures to at or below freezing for much of the east side.
Unfortunately Wednesday still looks to be the hottest day of the week, with the ridge axis overhead.
Morning low temperatures will mostly range across the low 70s with mid 70s along the coast.
211 AM MDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Current surface map places cold front across the eastern Dakotas with trough across Montana into eastern Wyoming. Upper low drops through the Pacific Northwest today, with southwest flow aloft increasing.
1100 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 (Tonight) As high pressure remains stationed to our east, dry conditions continue to prevail throughout the TN Valley.
1035 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Water vapor shows deepening upper trof over the western CONUS with lead short wave extending from SASK southward into the Central Rockies. At the surface, trof/cold front is shifting through the central/eastern Dakotas. Wide ranging early afternoon temps from the lower 70s in northeast WY. An additional few showers/storm possible later tonight across northwest SD within a bit better lift associated with short wave/trof. On Wednesday, main upper low reforms over the Pac NW, with increasing southwest flow through the Northern Plains. On Thursday, main upper low becomes nearly cut-off over the Great Basin.
(Today) A large area of high pressure will keep the bulk of the upper level forcing and deeper moisture associated with an upper low currently over southern Missouri and NW Arkansas to our NW through the afternoon and into the early evening hours. It looks slightly warmer than the past few days near/west of the I-65 corridor, as 925 mb temperatures climb back into the 20 to 23 degree range there and we see abundant sunshine for a good portion of the day.
1059 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023 A West Coast split flow pattern persists today with the southern stream upper low just approaching the SoCal area late this afternoon. outflow driven storms coming off the high plateaus. This shift in the flow aloft will be bring in drier air and wind which will bring a downturn in the convection but increase the threat of localized critical fire weather conditions to some of the lower elevations. The low to our Southwest will be shearing out across our CWA tomorrow night with some isolated convection forming through the predawn hours as it moves through.
348 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Dry and seasonable high pressure will continue through Thursday.
Embedded short wave energy is moving across the Midwest, with short wave ridging noted across the southeastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is centered near Delmarva, with ridging fanned through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Temperatures range from the upper 40s in the colder valley locations to the upper 50s atop the ridges. Troughing looks to move in over the southeastern CONUS through the short term, while the Midwest short wave energy nudges northeastward towards the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure will gradually strengthen and become more centered across New England by the end of the period.
A series of low pressure systems will keep temperatures below normal through the week.
After any morning fog burns off it should be another great mid- September day with high pressure still in place.
Upper level ridging will build over the region today as a trough digs down the west coast of the country. The ridge slides east tonight, with southwesterly flow on the east side of the trough becoming situated over the area. At the surface, an area of low pressure currently over the central part of the country will become reinforced as a boundary becomes situated from eastern Colorado to western Minnesota today, with the boundary pretty much set up from southwest to northeast across the CWA.
127 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Fair weather through the rest of the work week with high pressure in control. Consequently, remained on the cooler side of guidance for low temperatures, but the previous forecast of low to upper 40s with pockets of upper 30s across the Western Adirondacks stands. Winds will weaken this evening and skies will clear as high pressure builds in from the west. Abundant sunshine Wednesday and Thursday with seasonal highs in the 60s to lower 70s with 50s being limited to the highest terrain of the western Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and southern Greens especially on Wednesday.
Elsewhere, highs should reach the lower half of the 80s. Lows tonight should remain in the lower 60s with the increase in humidity. Broadly speaking, an upper low is forecast to deepen over the western U. as a ridge amplifies from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region.
446 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Fair dry weather will grace the region throughout the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds over the region.
426 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 A stalled boundary is in place across the southern half of the area this morning, with an upper trough to the west. An area of low pressure will then develop to the E/NE of the state along the boundary through Thursday/Thursday night as the upper trough shifts east. High rain chances continue through Thursday with the low pressure in the region. The low then lifts off to the NE at the surface with some drier air on the back side of it moving over the northern half of the area and lowering humidity and rain chances for the weekend.
930 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Cooler air has filtered into the region over the past 24 hours, which has resulted in temperatures being 5 to as much as 20 degrees cooler than they were at this time yesterday. This cooler air will linger through the end of the week, and a weather system arriving Wednesday night will bring widespread soaking rainfall to the area, along with some higher elevation snowfall. Noticeably cooler air has worked its way into the area as high pressure builds in. Aside from the cooler air, skies are mostly clear, though there is some noticeable smoke from prescribed burns locally and even a few wildfires in the broader Northern Rockies region. Tomorrow will feature more of the same, with similar to slightly cooler temperatures across the region.
Subtropical ridging remains centered over northern Mexico, resulting in weak west-northwesterly flow across South-Central Texas.
Although a few high-level convective debris clouds will spread southeastward across the region (originating from thunderstorm activity related to a mid-level trough tracking eastward across KS/OK), this should have no impact on sensible weather conditions, with temperatures currently approaching forecasted highs ranging from the l-m 80s in the northeastern corner of the CWFA to the lower 90s in the south.
Did make some minor adjustments to the low temperatures based on the latest trends in the observations. This low will lift northward while the entire wave creeps east at a snails pace. The 19/12z 500H model analyses beginning Thursday morning shows a split flow pattern across the Upper Mississippi to Lower Ohio Valley regions with an axis of troughing extending southeastward to over Florida and the Bahamas. Much of the western CONUS is under a deep trough. Moving down the surface, high pressure is centered across the Northeast US while exerting its influence across most locations east of Mississippi. Low pressure is found near Salt Lake City. The low will then track up along the Atlantic Seaboard over the weekend.
Larger dewpoint depression values, mainly because of warmer overnight temps, will lower fog chances with respect to previous nights.
Temperatures will be cooler in some areas today given expected cloud cover and precip, but should remain warm across S/SE AR.
(Today and tonight) A mid-level wave/trough currently over eastern Oklahoma is expected to move eastward into the Mississippi Valley Region by this afternoon so could still see scattered thunderstorms moving across our area through the morning, although it should stay east of I-35 during the afternoon hours. By late afternoon heating, moderate elevated instability and deep-layer shear associated with the trough may be sufficient for low-end severe thunderstorms to initiate.
A trough of low pressure will move across the Desert Southwest through Thursday.
1029 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023 A significant pattern change will develop into Wednesday, leading to much cooler temperatures and a very good chance of precipitation. The cooler temperatures may also lead to some patchy frost early Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Drier and slightly warmer weather is then expected for most locations through the end of the workweek. Low pressure will dig southeastward from British Columbia and into the Inland Northwest, leading to showers across the region later tonight and especially Wednesday. Slight precipitation chances will linger into Thursday as the low continues to push south of Washington, mainly from Spokane southeastward into the central ID panhandle.
An upper level low will drop into the Pacific Northwest this morning and enhance southwest flow across the area. Upper level divergence ahead of the low will bring a better coverage of showers and thunderstorms today as compared to yesterday. Most models show the low retrograding just a bit. However, if the low moves far enough west much of the moisture may move west.
While non-zero, chances for organized precip/convection appear relatively lower on Wednesday through much of Thursday as the higher precipitable water (PWAT) axis shifts just south of the area and ridging aloft noses into the area.
Heights increase today as a mid level ridge nudges north into the area from Mexico. At the same time, a thermal ridge axis will expand this afternoon allowing for temperatures to climb well into the 90s with even a few 100s scattered around. Convection will favor the higher terrain by mid afternoon where we could see gusty winds and brief heavy rain with any storms. Temperatures will cool several degrees with highs falling mostly back into the low to mid 90s.
(Today through Thursday) A mid to upper level ridge over west-central Mexico will slowly shift eastward through Thursday, keeping mainly rain-free conditions across most of South Texas.
202 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Fair dry weather will grace the region throughout the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds over the region.
331 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High pressure to dominant with dry and near average temps through Thursday.
Guidance remains somewhat mixed on the evolution of this low, with some bringing a track over the Mississippi River (EC/GFS) with others keeping it south (CMC/HRRR/NAMnest/NAM).
1209 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Over and around the Permian Basin, high pressure at the surface and aloft for the most part has kept development of convection at bay until recent. However, slightly more moisture returning could produce isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and northern Big Bend.
The low will track slowly ENE today to a 00z position in central MO, with rain/showers gradually spreading to the east/northeast ahead of it as vort maxes rotate northeastward. Temperatures are expected to be cooler today as a result of clouds/rain, especially in central MO where highs are only expected to get into the lower 70s.
In the big picture, will be watching the evolution of a developing upper low over the western CONUS as it eventually ejects into the Central Plains/Midwest for late week. Dynamics really seem a bit limiting though for heavier rain scenarios as wave weakens and drifts into ridge.
Rain chances increase for Thursday night into the upcoming weekend, with cooler temperatures prevailing.
254 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week providing dry weather and a slow warming trend, with river valley fog developing at night. A high pressure system will provide dry weather today and tonight.
Cooler air has filtered into the region over the past 24 hours, which has resulted in temperatures being 5 to as much as 20 degrees cooler than they were at this time yesterday. This cooler air will linger through the end of the week, and a weather system arriving Wednesday night will bring widespread soaking rainfall to the area, along with some higher elevation snowfall. Noticeably cooler air has worked its way into the area as high pressure builds in. Aside from the cooler air, skies are mostly clear, though there is some noticeable smoke from prescribed burns locally and even a few wildfires in the broader Northern Rockies region. Tomorrow will feature more of the same, with similar to slightly cooler temperatures across the region.
An upper level trough will swing across our area after midnight tonight through morning hours on Thursday, bringing potentially some isolated showers to locations approaching TN River Valley Region after midnight tonight. Surface ridging influences will shift eastward, and more sustained southerly low level atmospheric flow pattern is expected to become established as short term period progresses.
Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday due to the thicker cloud cover and rain chances, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s from west to east. Lows should be generally in the low to mid 60s both tonight and Wednesday night, or about 5 degrees above normal for mid/late September.
103 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Another mostly clear and calm night is on tap for the area as high pressure centered over the central Appalachians extends SW across the TN Valley. Discussion: High pressure will remain in control, resulting in a largely persistence forecast.
However, an upper level ridge will move overhead from the west and surface flow will quickly veer to southeast and south. Modest moist mid-level isentropic lift and upper level jet interaction to the southeast of the Four Corners short wave trough should be enough to generate some elevated convection across Far West Texas and southeastern New Mexico with some of the activity possibly crossing into the forecast area mainly after 09Z tonight.
Ridging aloft remains strong to our SW while at the surface, high pressure continues to slide east across the NE CONUS. Overnight lows from the upper 60s to low 70s can be expected inland and into the low 80s along the coast. Highs will generally climb into the low to mid 90s.
319 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High pressure is moving into the North Country, with several days of pleasant weather expected.
The pattern change that we have been following the past several days is still on track to arrive today, as a cut-off low pressure circulation develops. The center of the low will slowly migrate out of British Columbia this morning, and move south through eastern Washington and Oregon this afternoon.
with additional trough energy over CO/KS/OK in the zonal flow. Additional longwave troughing was noted over western Canada/Pacific Northwest and a closed low off the California Coast. A warm front stretched from southwest Iowa into northern Missouri. Through this time, a deep closed upper level low is still forecast to drop down through the northwestern U.
1232 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) As upper-level ridging continues throughout the short term, dry conditions can be expected to continue tonight. Above-normal daytime highs are expected Wednesday as temperatures are expected to climb into the lower to mid 90s near the coast to the mid to upper 90s inland with overnight lows dropping into the lower to upper 70s.
Otherwise, mainly dry conditions can be expected over most of the area today, in advance of an upper trough and associated low over the Pac NW pushing inland. As the low drops through eastern Washington and Oregon, flow becomes more southwesterly aloft through the day, with divergence setting up over the area by this evening. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will begin affecting the area this evening and overnight as moisture and energy associated with the low move through the region.