Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
641 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front was located just south of Interstate 20 and will continue south this morning, exiting the I-10 corridor by late morning. Temperatures will be much cooler today, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations are showing mostly sunny skies, light east-northeast winds and temperatures in the low to mid 70's.
Water vapor imagery highlights a broad long wave trough digging into the Great Lakes. The closed low to the east of Florida has opened up somewhat and slid east over the past 24-hours, noted by the rising mid to upper level heights on the 12Z FL RAOBs. High pressure off the New England coast will continue to drift east into the western North Atlantic today with diminishing northeast to east breezes across the Keys coastal waters.
249 AM PDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Strong high pressure and offshore flow will bring hot inland weather into the weekend.
The dominating synoptic feature continues to be the mid to upper level ridging along the East Coast. Meanwhile, high pressure keeps northeasterly winds in place the rest of the week.
An initially 1030mb to 1035mb Canadian high pressure will follow behind it and move south-southeast through the Plains while gradually weakening, bringing with it a crisp airmass. Expecting a cold front to move in from the north and through the Panhandles by the early evening hours. Most models are actually in general agreement with the NAM products which tend to do better with these cold fronts. Exact details will change regarding the cold front so stay tuned. However, there will be a decent pressure gradient with the cold front, so expect some 15-20 mph winds behind it.
A warming trend will continue today as an upper level ridge moves eastward over northern California and southern Oregon.
401 AM MDT Thu Oct 5 2023 The trough will continue to advance today and the axis should be getting over the Great Lakes region by evening. Temperatures should continue to trend gradually cooler. Temperatures therefore near normal to a few degrees cooler everywhere again.
628 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Today and Tonight: Although temperatures will continue to be warmer than normal through the period, cooler temperatures and increased rain chances are expected today and tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a weak center of low pressure over the ArkLaTex ahead of the cold front that stretched from the mid Mississippi river valley back across the Ozarks and into central Texas. Regional radars had vigorous convection over east Texas and western Louisiana associated with the center of low pressure. Despite the cold front moving through the CWA tonight, morning lows will range from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s south. Our normal lows run in the low to mid 50s. /22/ Friday: By Friday morning, the cold front will begin pushing across the area, bringing noticeably drier air with a persistent northerly breeze.
617 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Cooler, more fall like weather is here thanks to a large trof aloft that is swinging through the region the next few days. With this trof comes an attendant sfc cold front that will start moving through the area today. Friday things will clear out and dry out as the upper trof axis swings through and the cold front is pushed out. Highs will be in the lower 70s with overnight lows in the 40s.
623 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Dry high pressure and upper ridging remain firmly in place today. Then, the pattern breaks down on Friday as a trough sets up over the eastern CONUS.
The dominating synoptic feature continues to be the mid to upper level ridging along the East Coast. Going into the weekend, the aforementioned ridge moves offshore, and an upper level disturbance pushes into the Southeast while a Canadian trough slides into the Northeast.
(Rest of Today) As an upper level trough continues to move eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, shower chances will increase for the Tennessee Valley throughout today.
607 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 High pressure prevails through Friday ahead of an approaching cold front.
1002 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 High pressure prevails through Friday ahead of an approaching cold front.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front was located just south of Interstate 20 and will continue south this morning, exiting the I-10 corridor by late morning. Temperatures will be much cooler today, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
531 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (Today through Friday) Upper level troughing dominates much of the CONUS this morning, with a closed low anchored near Hudson Bay and upper level ridging along both the West and East Coasts. A secondary low is centered just north of MN with a cold front through the Dakotas and northern Rockies. Highs today will be in the 80s, with lows tonight in the low to mid 60s. Cooler begins arriving tomorrow, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
452 AM MDT Thu Oct 5 2023 The trough will continue to advance today and the axis should be getting over the Great Lakes region by evening. Temperatures should continue to trend gradually cooler. Temperatures therefore near normal to a few degrees cooler everywhere again.
606 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (Today and tonight) A more typical fall day awaits today on the heels of a vigorous trough that dealt several severe storms to the region yesterday. Surface ridging will wedge itself through the South Plains today under stable northwest flow and in the process rid us of any lingering low clouds early this morning. NBM's highs look a bit optimistic today, particularly in those areas that saw heavy rain recently, so opted for the cooler CONSSHORT values. Surface ridging remains parked over the region tonight allowing light winds and ample radiational cooling under crystal clear skies.
(Through tonight ) Tonight will be the coldest night of the season to date following the passage of a weak cold front today. (Tomorrow through Thursday) A stronger cold front will sweep south across the area Friday with even colder air to follow in its wake.
(This evening through Friday) Dry conditiions are expected across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, as the cold front continues to push south, into South Texas. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s across the forecast area.
Midday RAP upper air analysis and water vapor satellite imagery depict strong longwave troughing spread out over the majority of the CONUS between a pair of ridges over the east and west coasts. Any cold air that accompanies these north winds will be offset by 850-mb temperatures warming by 1-3 degrees C, fostering a slightly warmer day with afternoon highs in the mid/upper 70s to near 80. As a result, Friday afternoon will be much cooler across our area, with highs ranging from the low 60s north to upper 60s near the KS/OK border. Additionally, some light rain showers/sprinkles may accompany this surge in cooler temperatures, as latest CAMs show decent returns in the simulated reflectivity fields.
Rest of the forecast looks on track The trough will continue to advance today and the axis should be getting over the Great Lakes region by evening. Temperatures should continue to trend gradually cooler. Temperatures therefore near normal to a few degrees cooler everywhere again.
A sharp trough embedded in the cyclonic flow aloft will rotate through the Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon and evening. A secondary cold front will sweep through the area, bringing stronger northwest winds and the coolest and driest air through the Quad State for the weekend.
- Cooler temperatures will persist through Friday. Our first real cold front of the season will continue to contribute to some isolated to scattered (20-50%) convection tonight. Northeast flow will increase Friday afternoon ahead of a reinforcing surge of high pressure.
(This evening through Friday night) Upper level trough continues to linger over the central Plains with a cooler northwest flow in place over the Panhandles. With the earlier arrival of the front, we can expect the temperatures in the north to top out in the upper 60s, and areas to the south may manage to get into the lower 80s, given that the front may not arrive until after 4pm and peak heating will have taken place.
317 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (Issued 317 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023) Tonight through Friday night: The weak cold front arrived in south central WI this afternoon. Friday is the day the real cold front arrives.
Farther to our west-northwest, deep upper level troughing and an extensive cold front extends southward through the Mississippi River Valley.
1110 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Dry high pressure and upper ridging remain firmly in place today. Then, the pattern breaks down tomorrow as a trough sets up over the eastern CONUS.
1034 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (Issued 1034 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023) A weak cold front will slide across southern WI late this afternoon into the early evening. Our precip chances (up to 27%) seem reasonable, but may be on the high side.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Mesoanalysis shows the cold front has cleared the Big Bend, ushering the first day of significantly cooler temperatures this fall. Friday, temperatures attempt to recover, but won't make much headway as surface flow will not veer enough to make much difference, and areas farther south, who are enjoying warmer temperatures today, will better (or worse) feel the CAA effects tomorrow.
An amplified ridge of high pressure positioned off the NW coast will shift inland Friday and Friday night resulting in continued dry conditions and warming.
1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (Today and tonight) A more typical fall day awaits today on the heels of a vigorous trough that dealt several severe storms to the region yesterday. Surface ridging will wedge itself through the South Plains today under stable northwest flow and in the process rid us of any lingering low clouds early this morning. NBM's highs look a bit optimistic today, particularly in those areas that saw heavy rain recently, so opted for the cooler CONSSHORT values. Surface ridging remains parked over the region tonight allowing light winds and ample radiational cooling under crystal clear skies.
(This evening through Friday) Dry conditiions are expected across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, as the cold front continues to push south, into South Texas. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s across the forecast area. (Friday night through next Thursday) Reinforcing cold front will sweep through West Central Texas Friday evening and allow for the coolest air since April to slide into the area.
A second, stronger cold front will approach the region by late tomorrow afternoon and push through the Texas Panhandle by 00Z.
Minimal updates needed under high pressure ridging and clear conditions. Some slight adjustments to our daytime highs to account for the overnight lows plus some very localized fog across the lower elevations in mountainous eastern Oregon, but that about wraps it up.
A cold front approaching from the west moves slowly through the area from early this evening through about midday Friday, and MVFR conditions are possible along with showers as the front approaches and then moves through. /29 (Now through Friday) A large upper trof over the central CONUS amplifies while slowly progressing into the eastern states during the period. Lows tonight range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the immediate coast. Highs on Friday will be in the lower to mid 80s west of I-65 with mid 80s east of I-65.
Cooler, more fall like weather is here thanks to a large trof aloft that is swinging through the region the next few days. With this trof comes an attendant sfc cold front that will start moving through the area today. Friday things will clear out and dry out as the upper trof axis swings through and the cold front is pushed out. Highs will be in the lower 70s with overnight lows in the 40s.
Smoke that settled near the surface last night from active fires in the high country is now lifting. High pressure remains in place over Arizona today, with weak upper-level low off the California Baja coast. Northeast/east winds will also continue as a strong longwave trough over central US continues to have some influence. Thus, some locally gusty conditions can be expected downwind of the high terrain.
257 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Key messages through the forecast period: 1) Secondary cold front will move through the region on Friday with cold and windy conditions expected.
153 PM MDT Thu Oct 5 2023 After a few light showers today and a chilly night for some tonight, warmer and drier weather is expected this weekend as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds into the area. This is all thanks to some northwesterly flow aloft, which is helping to usher in a cooler air mass, along with some weak instability. As we head into the end of the week, an upper level ridge will begin to push into the area on Friday, which will allow us to start warming up a bit through the weekend.
Expect lows to dip into the low to mid 60s across the area. The cold front will begin to push across the area by Friday morning bringing in much drier air along with northerly wind flow. Afternoon highs will peak into the low to mid 80s.
256 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Key Messages: -Winds gusting 30-40 mph Friday afternoon and relative humidity around 30% could lead to some elevated fire weather concerns Friday afternoon -Much cooler temperatures arrive Friday through the weekend.
100 PM MDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Northwest flow will be in place today and Friday then gradually weaken as a ridge approaches from the west. Two cold fronts are forecast to move through the forecast area. Second cold front will move through Friday morning.
Temperatures behind the system have struggled to get out of the lower 70s but some upper 70s are now being noted in the northern Hill Country with near 80 closer to Del Rio. Quiet conditions are expected with lows by morning expected in the lower 60s in the Hill Country to the upper 60s to near 70 across the remainder of the area. Dry conditions will continue Friday into Friday night as a secondary surge of cooler and drier air moves into the area. This secondary front will bring even cooler weather for the weekend, but highs on Friday are expected to top out in the 80s for most areas ahead of the front.
(This evening through Friday) We're watching a light band of rainfall moving slowly eastward in Mississippi, associated with a pre-frontal trough as we approach the midday hour. We simply don't have enough moisture return from the Gulf due to the positively-tilted nature of the trough axis that will move across the region tonight and on Friday. The cold front will move into our northwestern counties as early as Friday afternoon, sending much cooler and drier air southeastward during the evening hours.
While near freezing temperatures are still expected for the higher valleys along the divide tomorrow morning, those further west have seen the probabilities diminish due to the easterly winds keeping the air mixed.
223 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 A cold front will race southward across the Northern Plains tonight arriving across Kansas during the morning hours on Friday. The front will usher in much cooler air and as high pressure settles over the area late Friday night into early Sat, the first frost/freeze of the season will take place in some areas and a freeze watch will be issued for portions of central KS where confidence is highest. A mid/upper ridge will amplify across the Great Basin area and the Rockies while northwest mid/upper flow prevails downstream over the Central Plains.
Widespread showers in the MidSouth will continue through today and taper off tonight as a cold front progresses through the region. Cooler temperatures and drier conditions are expected throughout the weekend after another cold front comes through tomorrow.
1200 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front was located just south of Interstate 20 and will continue south this morning, exiting the I-10 corridor by late morning. Temperatures will be much cooler today, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
122 PM PDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Warming and drying trend continues through the weekend as a ridge slides east through our region.
218 PM MDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Northwest flow aloft to prevail across the Central Rockies to the Northern Plains as a strong upper level trough dives southeast across the Great Lakes Region. A cold front extending from the low over the Great Lakes will push south through eastern Colorado early Friday morning, before sunrise for most. The cooler air behind the front and cloud cover will produce a chilly day with highs in mid to upper 50s over northeast Colorado.
1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (Rest of Today) As an upper level trough continues to move eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, shower chances will increase for the Tennessee Valley throughout today.
137 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 High pressure prevails through Friday ahead of an approaching cold front.
(Tonight) An upper level trough moving in from the southern MS Valley will continue to cause low to medium chances (20-50%) of showers throughout the TN Valley throughout this evening and overnight. Otherwise, low temperatures tonight are forecast to drop into the low to mid 60s.
High pressure centered off the Northeast coast has maintained generally east gentle to moderate breezes across the forecast area. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Phillipe will grind away the western flank of the high in the western North Atlantic, disrupting the pressure field across our area. Our surface winds will become more northerly by Friday evening as we become wedged in the pressure gradient between the low in the western Atlantic (TS Phillipe) and high pressure building across the Central United States.
337 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Showers will overspread the region this afternoon and into tonight as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. The cold front will usher in a much cooler airmass as we head into the weekend. Temperatures have already reached the high today northwest of I-71 and are expected to experience a slow drop. Showers will continue into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push east across the area through the day on Friday with a few showers remaining possible across mainly our eastern areas ahead of the front. This will lead to cooler but more seasonable temperatures on Friday with daytime highs mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
250 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Key Messages: 1) Gusty WNW winds into late afternoon with the passage of a strong cold front and deep mixing 2) Slight chance for showers late afternoon into early evening, with higher gusts getting mixed down 3) Elevated cropland fire danger this afternoon in E Iowa and again south of I-80 Friday 4) Much colder with scattered showers and possibly a rumble of thunder Friday Discussion: A strong cold front is currently pushing into the western parts of the CWA. With the CAA, temperatures will struggle to reach into the low 50s NW to lower 60s east and southeast.
The HRRR and GFS depict a light rain band coming in late tonight, but the rain reaching the surface is dependent on how dry the lowest portions of the atmosphere are. Much cooler temperatures through the weekend followed by a gradual warming trend. Discussion: A few showers may still be around early Friday night as the cold front exits the area, mainly over eastern portions near and over the eastern mountains.
(This afternoon through Friday Night) Showers continue to slowly move east ahead of the upper trough thats sliding into our region today. Northwest winds will move in behind the trough and associated cold front, so high temps tomorrow should hold in the mid to upper 70s if skies clear from west to east in the late morning through the afternoon.
* Below freezing temperatures late Friday night. At the surface, the region will remain situated between low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west tonight into Friday morning, keeping a decent pressure gradient in place and hence, keeping wind speeds up. The high to the west settles in over the region Friday afternoon and Friday night, bringing an end to the gusty winds. The coldest temperatures of the season will occur Friday night, with many locations likely to see overnight lows below freezing.
205 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Dry high pressure and upper ridging remain firmly in place today. Then, the pattern breaks down tomorrow as a trough sets up over the eastern CONUS.
Expect a cool and breezy Friday as a stronger cold front moves in. Areas west of Highway 65 will plummet to 35 to 39 degrees while areas east of Highway 65 will be a bit warmer at 37 to 41 degrees.
Our upcoming cold front is currently over central Wyoming and far northwestern Nebraska, and will descend into northern Colorado overnight, traversing most of the region by sunrise. Otherwise, the only real impact will be substantially cooler conditions under ample cloud cover, with highs around 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Northwest flow aloft to prevail across the Central Rockies to the Northern Plains as a strong upper level trough dives southeast across the Great Lakes Region. A cold front extending from the low over the Great Lakes will push south through eastern Colorado early Friday morning, before sunrise for most. The cooler air behind the front and cloud cover will produce a chilly day with highs in mid to upper 50s over northeast Colorado.
652 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (Tonight) An upper level trough moving in from the southern MS Valley will continue to cause low to medium chances (20-50%) of showers throughout the TN Valley throughout this evening and overnight. Otherwise, low temperatures tonight are forecast to drop into the low to mid 60s.
Upper-level ridging will be over the area through the weekend. Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast as a result.
644 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Key Messages: -Winds gusting 30-40 mph Friday afternoon and relative humidity around 30% could lead to some elevated fire weather concerns Friday afternoon -Much cooler temperatures arrive Friday through the weekend.
626 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (This afternoon through Friday Night) Showers continue to slowly move east ahead of the upper trough thats sliding into our region today. Northwest winds will move in behind the trough and associated cold front, so high temps tomorrow should hold in the mid to upper 70s if skies clear from west to east in the late morning through the afternoon.
Short Term Update - Philippe will gnaw further northward into the western flank of the ridge through the overnight period. A dying ridge to our north and a sprawling low that is Tropical Storm Philippe well to our east will result in light northeast to easterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
After a few light showers today and a chilly night for some tonight, warmer and drier weather is expected this weekend as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds into the area. This is all thanks to some northwesterly flow aloft, which is helping to usher in a cooler air mass, along with some weak instability. As we head into the end of the week, an upper level ridge will begin to push into the area on Friday, which will allow us to start warming up a bit through the weekend.
606 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Mesoanalysis shows the cold front has cleared the Big Bend, ushering the first day of significantly cooler temperatures this fall. Friday, temperatures attempt to recover, but won't make much headway as surface flow will not veer enough to make much difference, and areas farther south, who are enjoying warmer temperatures today, will better (or worse) feel the CAA effects tomorrow.