Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
536 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Hot high pressure dome will remain over the southern plains through the end of the week, with monsoonal moisture streaming northward across the intermountain west. Upper low off the Pacific northwest will nudge eastward onshore today, redirecting remnant impulses from Hilary into Montana and potentially initiating a few showers or thunderstorms across the region overnight. As the upper low continues to lift northeast into the Canadian prairies, the upper ridge will flatten with temperatures dropping through the week.
(12Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with rain chances remaining on the low side, so will not mention at any of the terminals.
Temperatures today should be much cooler than we've seen lately, and currently have mid 80s in the forecast for most of the area thanks to the cloud cover and rain.
623 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge will continue to spin over Missouri today and tonight, but the ridge will be slightly weaker by 1-2mb and thus temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Weak convection may develop across the far southwest South Plains this afternoon with weak disturbances around the ridge.
DISCUSSIONâ¦ Guidance shows a much quieter picture being applied to the region as an upper short wave trough, that is tethered to a stronger low pressure system driving into the Pacific Northwest, quickly lifts northeast across northeast NV today. This evolution towards fairer conditions will be courtesy of upper ridging building westward across Four-Corners into the Great Basin region.
735 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with rain chances remaining on the low side, so will not mention at any of the terminals. High pressure across central CONUS will continue to dominate keeping easterly to northeasterly winds through the week. In terms of temperatures, daytime high temperatures are forecast to reach the lower to mid 90s with heat index values generally in the 100-105 range. During the weekend, latest model guidance continues to suggest an upper-level trough dipping over the Great Lakes region helping to weaken and move the high pressure over Western U.
1038 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through most of Wednesday, which will bring mostly sunny skies.
635 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 A large area of high pressure will allow hot and dry conditions to remain across the Mid-South through the weekend.
Closer to home in the Florida Keys, a ridge continues to extend from the North Atlantic westward to the Southeast United States. A stout high pressure over the eastern United States and western Atlantic waters will continue to promote moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes this afternoon through at least the early overnight hours.
723 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring cooler, less humid and dry weather tonight through Wednesday.
Cooler than normal temperatures Wednesday then warming to above normal this weekend. Upper air pattern has a weakening CA trof lifting NNE, a strong upper high over central CONUS and a tropical wave approaching the TX coast.
Issued by National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 307 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2023 The region remains centered between a strong area of high pressure across the central U.
959 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring cooler, less humid and dry weather tonight through Wednesday.
631 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 (Today) Intense heat will continue across the region as strong ridging remains in place and dew points continue to be stubbornly high.
Otherwise, expect warmer temperatures today with a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The overall weather pattern over our CWA will be controlled by a very strong area of high pressure over the Plains states for the next several days. as the disturbances go up an over the area of high pressure in the Plains.
A large area of high pressure will allow hot and dry conditions to remain across the Mid-South through the weekend.
429 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2023 The upper low moves inland.
Heat headlines will continue to be the highlight of this week. Models keep a bubble of high pressure centered over Missouri for the next couple of days, then show it slowly wobbling slightly westward.
554 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 (Today through Wednesday) A large and highly amplified 600 dam ridge is centered over the Midwest, and is the key contributer to the broad region of dry and anomalously hot conditions across the eastern CONUS. Heat indices could be worse believe it or not, but the dry air is limiting dewpoints to the low 70s with some mid 70s in isolated spots.
634 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring cooler, less humid and dry weather tonight through Wednesday.
352 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Drier southwest flow aloft and high pressure to the east will bring drying and inland warming through Wednesday.
There is a slight cooling/moistening of the airmass over the mountains, with the low level thermal ridge shifting out towards the eastern border. We bumped up forecast highs a little, with the forecast the same as yesterday in the northeast corner and only a degree or two cooler elsewhere. NNE storm motion should limit eastward progression of outflows, but if we do get foothills showers in the late afternoon or evening, we could get a little puff of cooler air to keep us from being hot all evening like last night. Ensemble and deterministic guidance is in good agreement that an anomalous ridge aloft will persist over the central US Wednesday, then slowly shifting southwestward toward the weekend. The bump in moisture will reach the high country first, then spreading eastward to the plains Thurs/Fri.
The overall weather pattern over our CWA will be controlled by a very strong area of high pressure over the Plains states for the next several days. as the disturbances go up an over the area of high pressure in the Plains.
NE wind flow 10-15 mph is forecast around high pressure to the north with gusts up to 20 mph possible.
619 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 (Today through Wednesday night) In the short term, misery due to Missouri upper ridge continues.
At 11 AM, temperatures are already in the lower 90s across western MN and dew points are holding in the 70s. Dew points should mix out some while highs reach the low 100s.
A cold front will also move E through the forecast area tonight. Decent shear will again be present across the area for possible strong storms, with the highest CAPE, around 1000 j/kg, over the far E. It will be a few degrees cooler than today. An upper low will pass through S Canada just N of the MT border Wed.
338 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through most of Wednesday, which will bring mostly sunny skies.
SPC has placed areas along and north of the highway 200 corridor in a marginal risk for severe weather Wednesday (more probable by late afternoon into the early evening). The HREF UH tracks greater than 75 seem to show that scenario, with a few longer tracks along the highway 2 corridor between Minot and Devils Lake.
329 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through most of Wednesday, which will bring mostly sunny skies.
The 600 decameter ridge at 500mb remains centered over the Great Plains states, keeping much of the center of the CONUS, Ohio Valley, and the Southeast states abnormally hot and dry.
Models continue to show a disturbance riding over top of the ridge and crossing the region in northwesterly flow Wednesday, so have maintained PoPs in the forecast.
307 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 As of 15Z surface analysis, a dry cold front is slowly tracking through the area.
950 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Dry southwest flow aloft between a trough over the eastern Pacific and ridge to the east will bring dry, warm weather today and Wednesday.
Obviously, Middle Tennessee finds itself in the grips of this excessive ridging.
228 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring cooler, less humid and dry weather tonight through Wednesday.
Large nearly stationary ridge over central states continues to influence the weather pattern across the TN Valley tonight and Wednesday. Think a persistence forecast is better with highs in the lower to mid 90s again and heat index values only up to about 105.
(Wednesday through Tuesday) Excessive heat will remain the concern through the rest of the work week, with the strong dome of high pressure persisting across the region. The center of the high is expected to meander westward, with heights forecast to decrease some.
Cooler than normal temperatures Wednesday then warming to above normal this weekend. Southern Arizona remains under southerly flow in the wake of Hilary from earlier this week, and a highly anomalous upper ridge centered over the Midwest. With a delayed initiation to convection today, temperatures are generally running a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Harold moved inland over southern Texas earlier today, and continues to trek westward around the upper ridge.
Temperature wise, conditions are technically cooler though humidity is certainly higher. It will be close! Most of Harold's rains have remained south of our region thanks to a strong and large mid/upper ridge of high pressure centered over Missouri. This ridge will push southward tomorrow, increasing mid/upper pressure heights over southeast Texas. Wednesday PoPs are not zero, despite increased ridging, due to weak mid-level westward propagating vort maxes that may add just enough lift to allow for some shower or thunderstorm development in association with the sea breeze. But the increased ridging is expected to greatly suppress our rain chances. As to be expected with increased ridging, temperatures are likely to be hotter tomorrow.
Lows in the Metroplex will remain in the lower to mid 80s. Tomorrow, a slight weakening of the ridge will likely keep temperatures below 105 degrees for much of the region.
111 PM MST Tue Aug 22 2023 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain a threat into this evening, especially across the higher terrain of northern and southeastern Arizona.
1218 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 (Today through Wednesday night) In the short term, misery due to Missouri upper ridge continues.
High pressure situated over the central US will continue to maintain an northeasterly-easterly onshore flow through tonight with mainly isolated showers with potential embedded thunderstorms developing through inland areas this afternoon and evening, however convective development is expected to be largely inhibited due to high pressure ridging extending across southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. High temperatures for this afternoon will peak in the lower to mid to upper 90s with heat index values reaching into the 100s but remaining below local heat advisory criteria. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower 70s over inland areas and into the mid to upper 70s for areas along the coast and adjacent to the St Johns River.
Across southern/eastern MN and WI where dew points will remain in the 70s overnight, temps will drop only into the lower 80s. The impressive 602 dm ridge centered over northern MN today will weaken slightly and slide south Wednesday. A weak cold front will sag south through central MN and northwest WI through the day and should temper some of the heat and humidity from today's levels.
1104 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Not much change to current forecast as very strong upper ridge over the central states still dominates the weather pattern. High dew points this morning should slowly mix out early this afternoon as temperatures reach the lower to mid 90s. A large and nearly stationary ridge over the central US will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the TN Valley today and tonight. Temperatures today should be similar to yesterday, perhaps a degree or two higher as a mid/upper ridge axis will extend across the area. Forecast highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
1249 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge will continue to spin over Missouri today and tonight, but the ridge will be slightly weaker by 1-2mb and thus temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Weak convection may develop across the far southwest South Plains this afternoon with weak disturbances around the ridge.
Meanwhile, temperatures have been slow to rise over many parts of northeast Wisconsin in part due to southeast winds, ample cloud cover, and positioned northeast of a warm front. This warm front was roughly located north of Minneapolis to the Wisconsin Dells to Madison at 19z. As this warm front surges northward, thunderstorm chances and excessive heat are the main forecast concerns through Wednesday. The warm front will progress northeast and into far northern and northeast WI by 7 am Wednesday. The rest of the region should see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and warmer conditions. The warm front will stall over far northern Wisconsin for much of the day, placing the majority of the region in the warm sector. Combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat indices of 100 too 110 look likely.
Strong, expansive upper ridge in place along with oppressive dewpoints at the surface across E OK and NW AR.
Massive semi-permanent 600 dm ridge remained centered over Missouri at midday. Midday infrared satellite imagery revealed scattered cirrus rotating northward on the west side of the high, in association with outflow from tropical cyclone Harold making landfall in Texas.
1252 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through most of Wednesday, which will bring mostly sunny skies.
At the upper levels, an expansive ridge remains in place over the central United States with the main axis extending to the North Dakota/Minnesota border. This ridge will continue to nudge east tonight and into Wednesday, keeping most of our area in southwest flow aloft. For now, just decided to broadbrush a large area of patchy fog over portions of the west and all of the central, but we could see some dense pockets when all is said and done given the low level moisture and light winds that will be in place. Wednesday should be hot with highs ranging from the lower 80s northeast to the upper 80s and lower 90s over much of the central and south. Wednesday night lows will be very similar to tonight, but maybe just a touch cooler.
130 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Cooler and drier air will filter in tonight behind a southward moving front.
239 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring cooler, less humid and dry weather tonight through Wednesday.
(This evening through Wednesday night) A strong ridge remains parked over the Midwest, creating conditions that up there makes our dry heat look wonderful by comparison. Going into tomorrow, the upper-level ridge will finally weaken a bit and maybe shift southwest slightly. Temperatures across the area will be a degree or two cooler.
Additionally, the lower moisture in place wl limit rainfall potential in the form of a brief shower mainly to the marine areas and coast from Cape Canaveral southward.
The highest chance of showers and highest rainfall amounts will likely be confined to the I-10 corridor and south, as convection will be reliant on an influx of low level moisture and some strong daytime heating. Overnight low temperatures tonight will fall back into the lower to mid 70s.
The low pressure providing the instability will pass through the region through the overnight hours leaving the potential for a few storms overnight. A closed upper low pressure system just off the Washington coast will move inland and approach the Montana/Canadian border on Wednesday.
This will equate to slightly increasing rain chances across the region with the highest rain chances being confined south of Tampa Bay over SW Florida.
236 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 A mainly dry cold front moves through the region beginning late tonight.
Helping steer the moisture across our state is an upper level low over the Pacific northwest as well as strong high pressure centered over the central United States. Also, outside of thunderstorms, look for breezy winds of 25 to 35 mph with localized higher amounts with a trough moving through this afternoon. Tomorrow the moisture moving around the high pressure gets cut off as the upper level low off the Pacific northwest coast moves north of our area over southern Canada.
A weak backdoor cold front was in place from southwest Minnesota to northern Missouri and central Illinois. That was much to our detriment though, with very strong high pressure aloft helping temperatures climb into the upper 80s to low 90s as of 200p.
Upper level ridge remains off to the northeast for Wednesday, placing West Central Texas on the southwest periphery of the ridge. A few isolated areas of convection seen likely and temperatures will be a tad cooler than areas off to the east across central and north Texas.
229 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Hot and humid conditions will continue through Wednesday as the upper ridge remains over the Plains. The fog/stratus may shift a bit farther east with the higher dewpoints Wednesday night as the upper ridge begins to flatten. The recent anomalously strong ridge aloft over the central CONUS appears to breakdown some this period, and then retrograde toward the western CONUS.
Expansive ridging across the United States has pushed some modified continental air towards the Florida Keys, which has dried out our atmospheric profile, and it has also brought dew points into the lower 70s for the first time in a while. From synopsis, high pressure over the eastern United States and western Atlantic will result in moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes through at least tomorrow afternoon.
Otherwise, upper ridge will keep conditions dry. Large nearly stationary ridge over central states continues to influence the weather pattern across the TN Valley tonight and Wednesday. Think a persistence forecast is better with highs in the lower to mid 90s again and heat index values only up to about 105.
520 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Dry weather will continue tonight under high pressure. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return tomorrow afternoon with a crossing warm front.
Temperatures are remaining slightly warmer than the forecast, with widespread upper 60s to middle 70s. Overnight lows will likely be slightly warmer as a result. SPC has placed areas along and north of the highway 200 corridor in a marginal risk for severe weather Wednesday (more probable by late afternoon into the early evening). The HREF UH tracks greater than 75 seem to show that scenario, with a few longer tracks along the highway 2 corridor between Minot and Devils Lake.
921 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Dry weather will continue tonight under high pressure. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return tomorrow afternoon with a crossing warm front.
301 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Today and Wednesday, our region is sandwiched between low pressure over British Columbia and high pressure over the central US states.
1041 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring cooler, less humid and dry weather tonight through Wednesday.
High pressure will continue to bring quiet but hot weather this week. Obviously, Middle Tennessee finds itself in the grips of this excessive ridging.
Updated Aviation Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain a threat into this evening, especially across the higher terrain of northern and southeastern Arizona.
Across southern/eastern MN and WI where dew points will remain in the 70s overnight, temps will drop only into the lower 80s. The impressive 602 dm ridge centered over northern MO today will weaken slightly and slide south Wednesday. A weak cold front will sag south through central MN and northwest WI through the day and should temper some of the heat and humidity from today's levels.
1052 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 A mainly dry cold front moves through the region beginning late tonight.
With high temps running relatively cooler today, relatively being the operative word, it's looking more likely that the heat warning will not need an extension past 8 PM. (Wednesday through Tuesday) Excessive heat will remain the concern through the rest of the work week, with the strong dome of high pressure persisting across the region. The center of the high is expected to meander westward, with heights forecast to decrease some.
The strong mid/upper level ridge responsible for this heatwave is forecast by guidance to persist and intensify over the forecast area. After a mostly clear dry and uncomfortably warm night, the low level warmth will increase with H850 temperatures expected to approach highly anomalous 25 deg C values by late Wednesday. This will translate to surface temperatures approaching record highs in the low to mid 100s with extreme peak heat indices ranging from near 110-115 degrees across the region.
806 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 A mainly dry cold front moves through the region beginning late tonight.
The upper ridge will build into the region and bring in drier air inhibiting rain chances Wednesday night. The High risk of rip currents will continue through the night, also.
Hot and humid conditions will continue through Wednesday as the upper ridge remains over the Plains. The fog/stratus may shift a bit farther east with the higher dewpoints Wednesday night as the upper ridge begins to flatten. The recent anomalously strong ridge aloft over the central CONUS appears to breakdown some this period, and then retrograde toward the western CONUS.
648 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) A strong ridge remains parked over the Midwest, creating conditions that up there makes our dry heat look wonderful by comparison. Going into tomorrow, the upper-level ridge will finally weaken a bit and maybe shift southwest slightly. Temperatures across the area will be a degree or two cooler.
A hot day is in store for Wednesday as the 600 dam ridge remains parked over Missouri.
824 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring cooler, less humid and dry weather tonight through Wednesday.
745 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Dry weather will continue tonight under high pressure. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return tomorrow afternoon with a crossing warm front.
714 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring cooler, less humid and dry weather tonight through Wednesday.
There were a few exceptions like Monroe running 5 degrees warmer with more wind. Also, Idabel and DeQueen are a few degrees warmer, but those are about it.
220 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Dry southwest flow between a trough over the eastern Pacific and ridge to the east will bring dry, warm weather Wednesday.
644 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 A backdoor cold front will continue to push southward through the area this evening and tonight, with cooler high pressure building in from the north through midweek. By late week high pressure will recenter off the SE coast and bring a return of hot and humid conditions with rain chances increasing by this weekend. Quiet day expected for Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the north. Dew points will mix out into the low 60s inland to mid 60s along the coast/OBX, creating a pleasant day, temperature-wise, for August.
831 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Cooler and drier air will filter in tonight behind a southward moving front.
(Rest of tonight) High pressure is evident over the eastern US as the region is mostly void of clouds and large scale anticyclonic rotation can be seen on nighttime RGB satellite imagery. This will keep dry but warm conditions overnight with temperatures only falling into the low to mid 70s by the early morning hours.