Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level ridge over the southern High Plains will shift eastward today ahead of a mid level low that will traverse Arizona tonight and its associated 110 kt 250 mb jet streak approaching the area from the west. Increasing southwesterly mid level flow as the upper ridge shifts eastward will increase shear for storms once they get going.
However, rain chances will ramp up considerably by early to mid afternoon as deep southwest flow continues to advect deeper moisture into the area ahead of the slow eastward progression of the upper trough with models showing PWATs reaching or exceeding 2" later today and so localized torrential downpours will be the main concern with the activity today.
924 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 Low pressure will continue to drift further offshore later today, which should lead to more sunshine.
658 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) With the broad mid/upper level trough(low) lingering over the Cen- tral Gulf, isolated to scattered rain chances will remain possible mainly over the southern half of the CWA through this afternoon as weak disturbances move in from the north. Slightly lower PWs along with a slowly building ridge aloft (from the west) will help limit coverage with the bulk of the activity dissipating around sunset. The aforementioned ridging aloft will bring a quieter (but warmer) pattern tomorrow. with highs tomorrow in the lower 90s.
625 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we currently have lows over each coast with a weak ridge centered near the TX/NM line. The big difference today though is that the low over the western states will move a little east today, weakening the ridge and shifting the axis over to Central Texas. The weaker and displaced ridge axis will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Tomorrow the upper low over Arizona continues moving east into western New Mexico increasing zonal flow over the CWA. The weaker ridge does further decrease temperatures by a couple more degrees keeping highs mostly in the 80s which is a nice start to June.
418 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Today and Tonight: An upper-level low pressure system spinning over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today will help to maintain a generally dry air mass over our forecast area through the afternoon. 2 inches in the region, and flow trajectories across the region are out of the east through the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere.
1001 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure will expand across the area from the north through the weekend while weak low pressure remains off the coast. At 10 AM, visible satellite, obs, and radar data indicated that the backdoor cold front was pushing south across SE GA. In the wake of the front, ridging high pressure was increasing across the forecast area, supporting steady NE winds. In the upper levels high pressure will prevail over New England while low pressure persists over the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface weak high pressure will build into the region. Drier air associated with the building high pressure will yield minimal POPs Thursday afternoon.
610 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Now through Thursday) Outside of a few streamer showers along the coast, drier weather is anticipated the next couple of days with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 90s for highs and low to mid 70s for lows. The axis of an H5 ridge is forecast to nudge overhead the next couple of days, essentially shutting off rain chances.
402 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Issued 402 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023) Today and Tonight: High pressure is still in control over the eastern U. while a trough sits over the western half. In addition, 925mb (and surface) temps will be a notch warmer.
458 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Summary: The blocking pattern continues giving hot weather for this time of year though widespread rain does not appear likely within this forecast aside from afternoon convection.
In fact, decreased pops through the afternoon and evening hours for today, although did not completely remove them, with an uptick in activity not really expected until the first of several upper level disturbance rotates around the upper low across the southwest. So while there are small pops in the forecast from 1 PM through Midnight, the better chances appear after midnight and possible not until daybreak tomorrow, as showers and storms lift across the area from the southwest around the upper low. This shower and thunderstorm activity will be the first of several rounds rotating around the aforementioned upper level low. which should result in fairly widespread chances for precipitation across the local area with limited strong/severe thunderstorm potential given the high cape/low shear environment.
639 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Today and tonight) A weak upper level ridge will remain over the area today, but will begin to shift east of the area tonight into Thursday.
951 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 A ridge of high pressure is expected to build from the New England Coast back west over the local area through Thursday.
702 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Today and Tonight: An upper-level low pressure system spinning over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today will help to maintain a generally dry air mass over our forecast area through the afternoon. 2 inches in the region, and flow trajectories across the region are out of the east through the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere.
600 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure will maintain VFR conditions with light southeast flow throughout the day. Period of dry and seasonably warm weather continues as upper level ridging and its surface pressure reflection hold firmly in place. 00z upper air analysis confirms the ridge is strengthening with max 500mb heights of 583 dam observed via Buffalo RAOB. Full effects of this blocking pattern will be felt locally over the next several days as the center of the ridge strengthens further and retrogrades overhead, with 500mb heights pushing into the 99th percentile for early June standards per NAEFS.
948 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 Strong and persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.
453 AM MDT Wed May 31 2023 Mean western CONUS trough will continue to support unsettled weather through most of the period. SW CONUS upper low will advect north into the region, supporting increasing coverage of showers/storms over the region toward the end of the work week. Approaching upper trough will support ongoing pos theta-e ad adv overnight tonight, with possibly a few elevated showers storms late. Best coverage/chances for precip will be Thur/Fri as a slow moving upper trough advects over the region with sufficient ll moisture, supporting locally heavy rainfall over the western third.
(Now through Thursday) Outside of a few streamer showers along the coast, drier weather is anticipated the next couple of days with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 90s for highs and low to mid 70s for lows. The axis of an H5 ridge is forecast to nudge overhead the next couple of days, essentially shutting off rain chances.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. An upper level trough remains in place across the Gulf of Mexico, Florida Keys, and down to Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. The axis of this trough was located in the central Gulf of Mexico with deep southwesterly flow out ahead of it. At the surface, an area of low pressure can be seen spinning over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, basically due south of the Florida Panhandle. From synopsis, an unsettled weather pattern will remain across Keys waters for at least the next couple of days due to troughing developing in the Gulf of Mexico. Uncertainty is unfortunately quite high beyond this due to developing low pressure in the vicinity of Florida.
631 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure will expand across the area from the north through the weekend while weak low pressure remains off the coast. A weak cold front is currently oozing south across the SC Lowcountry with winds turning from the northeast. Behind the cold front, stratus has continued to expand in coverage with skies quickly starting to go overcast. Today: The Rex Block remains across the eastern United States with weak low pressure off of the NC coast. At 850 MB, low pressure off of the NC coast will aid in pushing the weak cold front down towards KSAV, or just south of KSAV, with only slight cooling forecast.
Patterson (Issued 402 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023) Today and Tonight: High pressure is still in control over the eastern U. while a trough sits over the western half. In addition, 925mb (and surface) temps will be a notch warmer.
638 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 Low pressure will slowly drift offshore today with less coverage of showers and more sunshine.
551 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 A ridge of high pressure is expected to build from the New England Coast back west over the local area through Thursday.
(Today and tonight) A weak upper level ridge will remain over the area today, but will begin to shift east of the area tonight into Thursday.
" Our in the weather parody today, is "Left Turn Upper Level Low". This will be a warm day as well, with temperatures rising into the 80s in the warmer spots, possibly well into the 80s in the warmer spots. This will change tomorrow as the low moves northwards towards the area. As for the possibility of severe weather, it is not zero, but given there will be a lot more clouds, this should being cooler temperatures and limit instability somewhat.
High pressure at the sfc and aloft remains in control of the weather over the region. Temps near 90 and dew points in the lower 60s will produce around 1000 J/kg of ML CAPE to work with. Instability is fairly similar with ML CAPEs expected to build up to around 1000 J/kg once again with temps near 90F and dew points in the lower 60s.
710 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure, and associated cool and moist northeasterly flow, will extend across VA and the Carolinas through Thursday.
226 AM PDT Wed May 31 2023 A warming trend will begin today, with the valley seeing highs in the low to mid 80's, as compared to yesterday where highs were in the high 70's to low 80's.
621 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Today and tonight) The current synoptic pattern will continue for one more day before the ridge breaks down and we transition to a more widespread rain pattern. With the ridge starting to weaken and a low level jet slightly farther to the east (edging into western Oklahoma) than last night, storms will have a slightly better chance at maintaining into our forecast area--at least for a bit.
516 AM PDT Wed May 31 2023 A low pressure system moving inland through southern California will bring scattered light showers this morning and a slight chance of afternoon showers for the mountains and deserts.
(Today through Thursday Night) With the broad mid/upper level trough(low) lingering over the Cen- tral Gulf, isolated to scattered rain chances will remain possible mainly over the southern half of the CWA through this afternoon as weak disturbances move in from the north. Slightly lower PWs along with a slowly building ridge aloft (from the west) will help limit coverage with the bulk of the activity dissipating around sunset. The aforementioned ridging aloft will bring a quieter (but warmer) pattern tomorrow. with highs tomorrow in the lower 90s.
-Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Thursday/ The return of low-amplitude ridging will largely bring an end to our pattern of daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity, with most areas expected to remain dry today. Have retained some low PoPs across the southeast this afternoon which will remain slightly displaced from the building ridge axis and closer in proximity to a mid-level weakness across Southeast Texas. Thursday will essentially consist of a persistence forecast for now, with broad but weak upper ridging and height rises in place overhead.
625 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Today through Thursday Night ) A blocking pattern continues to promote summerlike/stagnant conditions locally, with mostly dry weather, above average temperatures, and a light east/southeast wind. Troughing is noted along the west/east coasts, with ridging in the middle of the country. At the surface, while high pressure is slowly weakening, it is still the dominant weather feature.
646 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 Strong and persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.
(Today through Thursday) A quiet cool night with temps dropping into the mid 50s will give way to another cooler than normal day tomorrow with temps in the upper 70s and low 80s.
231 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Our unsettled weather pattern and warmer than average temperatures continue through the short term. Deterministic and ensembles agree on a ridging pattern across the central and eastern CONUS with a trough in the western CONUS and mid level low centered over CA/AZ this evening.
Weather Details: Current satellite and radar analysis shows an expanding cumulus field with embedded convective towers developing along the spine of the Laramie Ridge. Discussion: Unsettled weather continues on Thursday as we continue to be influenced by an area of low pressure sitting near the Four Corners region and keeping SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle in persistent moist SE flow.
/LCP/ Today and Tonight: An upper-level low pressure system spinning over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today will help to maintain a generally dry air mass over our forecast area through the afternoon. 2 inches in the region, and flow trajectories across the region are out of the east through the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere.
An upper level ridge is expected to slowly retrograde to our west during the period. This ridge is expected to keep the region dry.
Temperatures across the area have been able to warm into the low to mid 80s, and with diminishing cloud cover, expect temperatures warm a few degrees further by late this afternoon.
(Tonight through Thursday night) The overall synoptic weather pattern will feature a mid/upper ridge axis in firm control of the CWA through the short-range forecast period. Slightly more southeasterly flow will keep overnight lows slightly warmer than the past few nights.
1229 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 A ridge of high pressure is expected to build from the New England Coast back west over the local area through Thursday.
Following highs in the lower/mid 80s today, overnight temps will fall mainly into the lower/mid 60s.
1217 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we currently have lows over each coast with a weak ridge centered near the TX/NM line. The big difference today though is that the low over the western states will move a little east today, weakening the ridge and shifting the axis over to Central Texas. The weaker and displaced ridge axis will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Tomorrow the upper low over Arizona continues moving east into western New Mexico increasing zonal flow over the CWA. The weaker ridge does further decrease temperatures by a couple more degrees keeping highs mostly in the 80s which is a nice start to June.
1202 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Today and tonight) A weak upper level ridge will remain over the area today, but will begin to shift east of the area tonight into Thursday.
(Rest of Today) Mostly sunny skies prevail across the TN Valley this late Wed morning, as current temps rebound into the lower/mid 70s from their earlier lows in the lower/mid 60s. High pressure remains layered from the mid Atlantic states into the Appalachians region, while the upper air pattern over the region remains sandwiched between a weak ridge axis over the NE states and an upper low in the north central Gulf. Afternoon temps will be similar to Tue, with highs again climbing mainly into the lower/mid 80s.
130 PM PDT Wed May 31 2023 A low pressure system moving inland through Southern California will bring a few additional mountain showers this afternoon.
Meanwhile, temperatures have hit the lower 90s again at Fargo, with 80s elsewhere. CAMs continue to show scattered showers and storms over southeast ND by 4 pm, lifting into the I-94 corridor by 6 pm, and the highway 200 corridor by 8 pm. Have stayed on the higher end of guidance for Thursday highs. Large scale ridging will continue to retrograde westward, limiting the potential for organized severe convection. With a similar height ridge over us as the previous week, it appears like we will more likely fall within the NBM 25th to 50th percentiles.
Any areas that remain cloudy/rainy, may only top out in the lower 80s or even 70s.
110 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 A wave of low pressure could bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.
(Tonight through Thursday night) An upper level ridge has moved over Texas and will move slowly to the east through the short term period. The low level flow is from the southeast keeping a warm, moist airmass in place. The southeasterly flow in the low levels will lead to partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer with lows near normal Thursday morning from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. Temperatures will be near normal with highs from the middle 80s to the lower 90s.
Overnight lows should stay warm, with readings dropping into the low to mid 60s for most locations.
1219 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) With the broad mid/upper level trough(low) lingering over the Cen- tral Gulf, isolated to scattered rain chances will remain possible mainly over the southern half of the CWA through this afternoon as weak disturbances move in from the north. Slightly lower PWs along with a slowly building ridge aloft (from the west) will help limit coverage with the bulk of the activity dissipating around sunset. The aforementioned ridging aloft will bring a quieter (but warmer) pattern tomorrow. with highs tomorrow in the lower 90s.
301 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure will remain over the region with dry and warm conditions through the end of the week.
150 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023 19z surface analysis had weak trough from central ND to southeast WY with lee trough from central MT to southeast WY. Main upper low over western AZ. Surface boundary intersecting the Black Hills/lee trough focusing weak convection per regional radar loop.
With a similar pattern to last night, I kept low temps in the 50s with warmer temps, possibly in the low 60s, along the lakeshore areas. Medium range and ensemble packages continue to suggest the extended pattern will be dominated by a mid-level ridge overhead.
1203 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Rest of Today) Mostly sunny skies prevail across the TN Valley this late Wed morning, as current temps rebound into the lower/mid 70s from their earlier lows in the lower/mid 60s. High pressure remains layered from the mid Atlantic states into the Appalachians region, while the upper air pattern over the region remains sandwiched between a weak ridge axis over the NE states and an upper low in the north central Gulf. Afternoon temps will be similar to Tue, with highs again climbing mainly into the lower/mid 80s.
1125 AM MDT Wed May 31 2023 Mean western CONUS trough will continue to support unsettled weather through most of the period. SW CONUS upper low will advect north into the region, supporting increasing coverage of showers/storms over the region toward the end of the work week. Approaching upper trough will support ongoing pos theta-e ad adv overnight tonight, with possibly a few elevated showers storms late. Best coverage/chances for precip will be Thur/Fri as a slow moving upper trough advects over the region with sufficient ll moisture, supporting locally heavy rainfall over the western third.
(This afternoon through Thursday) High pressure extends southwest along the Mid-Atlantic coast and through the Appalachians which is resulting in easterly flow across Central Alabama. There will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, but cloud cover may increase at times due to the trough circulating over the Gulf of Mexico.
(Tonight through Thursday night) The mid to upper-level ridge will continue to moves eastward with the ridge axis expected to be over the region late tonight into tomorrow morning. However, due to areas of vorticity in the lower levels moving over the area tomorrow, a stray shower or two can't be ruled out over the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads during the afternoon hours.
157 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure will expand across the area from the north through the weekend while weak low pressure remains off the coast. In the upper levels high pressure will prevail over New England while low pressure persists over the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface weak high pressure will build into the region. Drier air associated with the building high pressure will yield minimal POPs Thursday afternoon.
500 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 Persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.
1219 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 (Today through Thursday Night ) A blocking pattern continues to promote summerlike/stagnant conditions locally, with mostly dry weather, above average temperatures, and a light east/southeast wind. Troughing is noted along the west/east coasts, with ridging in the middle of the country. At the surface, while high pressure is slowly weakening, it is still the dominant weather feature.
341 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 High pressure over the New England Coast is expected to extend a ridge back west over the local area through Thursday.
230 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 No significant changes in forecast trends through the rest of the workweek as a 584 dam H5 blocked ridge begins to unlock, gradually retrograding toward the Great Lakes over the next 24 hours. 12Z KDTX RAOB sampled the highest morning PWAT in over a week given weak low-level confluence/ThetaE advection.
This Evening/Tonight Currently, a closed low is situated off the eastern NC coast and will continue to remain merely stationary as the synoptic pattern evolves with troughing to the west. Model guidance suggests that instability (MLCAPE near 500 j/kg) will remain limited across the region with lower PWAT and PoP values focused along the higher terrain. As the area of high pressure over the Great Lakes retrogrades back towards the northern plains near the end of the weekend, a deep trough digs down from the northeast into the Eastern US and Appalachians. While models are in agreement about the presence of this feature, guidance is still varying on the timing and eventual location of the low this far out.
Throughout the short term, the area of low pressure in the Gulf is expected to deepen some while a ridge builds in to our west. The forecast area could see a few diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon for central Georgia as the northern periphery of the low pressure system brings warm and moist air from the Gulf to the area. Terrain induced showers and thunderstorms will also be possible across north Georgia this afternoon and tomorrow amidst to the dirty ridge setup. Max high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s will trend warmer tomorrow into the 80s areawide.
923 AM PDT Wed May 31 2023 A low pressure system moving inland through Southern California will bring a few additional mountain showers this afternoon. Temperatures will remain much cooler than normal today for all areas.
In the short term, the latest water vapor imagery is showing the center of an upper low circulation just south of Las Vegas. This upper low will drift slowly northeast toward the 4-corners area by midday Thursday. Dry air visible on the southern periphery of the low feeding southeast CA and into AZ. The lower than normal upper height anomalies the rest of this week with this system will keep temperatures below normal.