Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures wont drop off much as low temperatures will be right into the low 60s. An upper level ridge over the southeast CONUS will shift east out of the southeast region, and this will allow a strong trough to approach by late Wednesday. Showers and perhaps a few storms will likely increase in coverage in the warm advection ahead of the trough.
High winds are being observed across the higher elevations and adjacent plains with high-end advisory level winds elsewhere. Lee troughing ahead of the next upper-low slackens the surface pressure gradient and winds become southerly during the overnight hours for the lower elevations. Winds become relatively weaker but still strong out of the west across the higher elevations. The next upper-trough moves overhead on Wednesday with an accompanying 45-60 kt low-level jet max. Widespread high winds across the higher elevations and adjacent plains are expected once again with high-end advisory level winds across most other locations. A cold front will be entering the region by afternoon. Cooler temperatures are expected across southeast New Mexico and vicinity as winds become northwesterly.
Nevada, tracking south as they wrap around the backside of a strong upper low. Activity will be mostly exited from the forecast area Wednesday morning with light showers likely lingering over the high terrain into mid day. Additional valley accumulations of less than an inch are expected with 2-4 for the high mountains. The rest of NV will still see winds gusting mainly in the 20s to 30s mph range with occasional stronger gusts in the low 40s. Highs will be in the 20s to 30s while the lows will fall into teens to negative single digits to low tens.
The upper-level ridge continues to propagate eastward today. Daytime highs look warmer this afternoon than yesterday, with most areas away from the water likely reaching the 80s.
400 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 Strong winds and warm temperatures are forecast for today in the southwesterly flow ahead of deep low pressure that is advancing to Canada.
A second area was in the western Magic Valley southward into southern Twin Falls County, and this area seems to have a better chance at producing measurable snowfall - especially in the higher terrain of southern Twin Falls County.
1238 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 (Rest of today through Wednesday) High pressure over the western Atlantic will dominate the weather pattern in the short term.
A mainly south/southwest flow will bring in warmer air into the area. The steering flow and remaining drier air mass (PWATs below 1 inch) will have temperature highs spanning from the high 70s and low 80s for inland areas, while afternoon Atlantic sea breeze will keep coastal areas near the lower/mid 70s.
Temperatures will be much cooler with highs in the single digits and teens.
1220 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 (06Z TAFS) High pressure remains in control with VFR conditions prevailing, along with ESE flow.
Cold front now south and east of the forecast area, with peak pressure rises in south central South Dakota. Current upper air analysis depicts closed upper low centered over KS with a fairly well defined comma-head structure on visual imagery. Forecast remains fairly complex with the upper low over KS interacting with the wave in ID/WY. Winds will remain gusty through Wednesday as the upper wave digs to the south and develops into a closed low.
Mid level dry slot is now approaching from the southwest bringing diminished coverage, although more showers are expected later tonight as the upper low/vort max over Iowa/nrn MO lifts northeast. Steeper mid level lapse rates and deeper moisture should support some healthier showers than we've been seeing this evening after 3 AM or so, particularly over wrn and nrn portions of the CWFA closer to the upper low. This is when the low level cold advection arrives from the southwest and low level lapse rates steepen sufficiently to mix down some of those stronger winds at 925 MB. The low will track to western Lake Superior by 12z Wednesday which means the cwa will remain in the warm sector through the next 36 hrs.
Mins in the L60s except U50s for the cooler sheltered interior locales.
Deep layered ridging is in place across the Keys region. This ridge is driving moderate east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys. This shift in wind direction over the past 24 hours has brought in a warmer and somewhat more moist air mass. Temperatures are in the lower 70s with dew points now near 60. However, its trailing ridge will remain across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Rain chances will remain nil due to the background anticyclone, lack of moisture, and strong inhibition. A ridge extending west southwestward across Florida providing moderate to fresh east southeasterly breezes across Keys waters.
A cold front is currently moving southward across the northern portion of the area, associated with a mid/upper level low positioned across southern Idaho. The bulk of the snow will struggle to follow the front south, however, as the upper low moves farther away into Utah and keeps flow unfavorable for much snow across southern Wyoming. Once again, the main concern will be wind (or the combination of wind and lighter snow), and though speeds still look borderline, will keep the High Wind Warning going across eastern Sweetwater County tonight through Wednesday morning. The Wind River and Green River Basins will (as usual) be the coldest, with temperatures in the lowest elevations falling below -20.
(Today and tonight) The next upper low that will result in winds across the South Plains area is spinning over the Four Corners region, the center of the 500 mb circulation being centered just north of the Grand Canyon.
Travel will remain difficult tonight through Wednesday morning, especially in the High Country.
1048 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) As the low pressure system to our north moves off to the northeast, the pressure gradient will weaken slightly allowing winds to calm down late this afternoon and tonight. This low along with strong 850mb winds, which could mix down, will allow wind speeds to pick back up Wednesday morning and afternoon. Wind direction will shift to more of a southerly wind overnight ahead of the next trough, bringing warm dry air from the south and raising highs tomorrow. As the low over the panhandle begins to develop and move east, a cold front will approach our area, reaching our western border Wednesday afternoon.
During the day Wednesday, convergence along the boundary will increase, with much cooler air to the north. South of the boundary, warm and moist advection will increase temperatures into the low 70s with dew points approaching 60F in spots. Second, as the deep upper level low ejects northeast through Kansas, the right entrance region of an upper level jet will set up over the area. Much cooler air will spill in from the northwest.
With the overall character of the trough maintaining a positive orientation as it moves across the area on the northern periphery of a H3 jet axis.
High pressure will slide southeast across the state today partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures ranging from the single digits around the Turtle Mountains, to the mid 20s southwest.
345 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2023 Current upper air analysis shows the closed low sitting over MN/WI, with the secondary wave in the southwestern CONUS.
636 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 Strong winds and warm temperatures are forecast for today in the southwesterly flow ahead of deep low pressure that is advancing to Canada.
Dominant high pressure will ensure another pleasant day. Temperatures will continue to warm above normal through the end of the week, with highs today ranging from the upper 70s into the low to mid 80s. Lows tonight will be a tad more moderate with temperatures only falling into the upper 50s to the north and the lower 60s further south. The upper-level ridge continues to propagate eastward today. Daytime highs look warmer this afternoon than yesterday, with most areas away from the water likely reaching the 80s.
455 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2023 The snow continues to wind down across the area as low pressure moves away to the east. As for the high wind warning, models continue to indicate 50 to 55 knot winds across eastern Sweetwater County through the morning so we will let that ride. Areas like Casper will likely see somewhat warmer temperatures with increased mixing the atmosphere. We also thought about a wind chill advisory for eastern Sweetwater County for tonight but decided to punt since the high wind warning in still in effect.
253 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2023 |The closed upper low can be seen on water vapor imagery over far north central Arizona early this morning and will be approaching the 4 corners region after daybreak. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal with highs in the 20s to 30s across most of the plains and urban corridor.
A cold, winter storm system continues moving through northern Arizona this morning bringing snow to the high country.
Conditions will trend warmer later this week with normal temperatures and dry weather through the weekend. The upper low has shifted east of California with a dry northerly flow aloft behind it. A very cold air mass is settling in and radiational cooling will result in freezing temperatures for most of the San Joaqin Valley this morning and on Thursday morning. A ridge of high pressure building in from the eastern Pacific will bring a warming trend later this week as an upper low drops south off the coast.
The rest of the short term looks dry as an upper trof associated with northern stream energy drops into and across the area. That trof is also ushering in a colder airmass to the region, that'll stick around for a few days, resulting in colder than normal temperatures, especially over the eastern forecast area.
405 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 Today and tonight: It will be much warmer than normal through tonight along with windy conditions in the west today and breezy conditions today elsewhere. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over northeast New Mexico that will tack east northeast across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles this morning then northeast to the Great Lakes region by Wednesday morning. Despite the increasing cloud cover and rain chances today, temperatures will top out in the low to mid 70s across much of our CWA.
355 AM PST Wed Feb 15 2023 Into the weekend, nights will be cold with gradually warmer days.
The next upper level low was moving towards the four corners region per the 08Z water vapor imagery. Upstream was an upper ridge along the west coast. At the surface, a low pressure system was lifting through the Upper Midwest with a trailing cold front over southern and eastern KS. A weaker area of low pressure was noted over the southern high plains. Have stuck with the higher amounts from WPC for a couple reasons. There is some risk with the higher QPF too as the forecast is above the 50% percentile from the NBM. Highs today could be a little tricky if the low stratus hold in for most of the day.
(Today and tonight) Upper low spinning over northern Arizona will slowly eject eastward into the Southern Plains by tonight.
At the surface, high pressure is situated just off the East Coast, and is maintaining moderate easterly breezes. Aloft, mean layer ridging has parked itself atop the forecast area and is responsible for the large-scale descent and stable atmosphere. Over the next few days, ridging will remain dominant, as will drier air. Thursday night, higher moisture will return to the boundary layer as this trough pulls moisture northward across the forecast area, so rain chances will be be re-introduced into the forecast.
The associated cold front has stalled along I-44 in Missouri and I-70 in Illinois, a bit further south than previously forecast, thus lowered temperatures especially in the St. So the precipitation will start off as a rain/freezing rain/sleet mix as surface temperatures hover between the upper 20s to low 30s in portions of central/northeast Missouri, as well as west central Illinois.
956 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 Small rain chances return today through Thursday, mainly across western areas as a cold front approaches.
216 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2023 Current upper air analysis shows the closed low sitting over MN/WI, with the secondary wave in the southwestern CONUS.
A second upper low over northern Arizona is poised to move into New Mexico later today causing winds to increase once again. All headline products will be left as is for today though conditions may verify on the lower end of warning/advisory criteria. The upper low pushes a cold front through the CWA today which is the cause for the increasing westerly winds, however the colder air will lag behind until tonight when the low reaches the Central Plains and northerly winds funnel Canadian air south. Lows tonight will drop below freezing everywhere except for along the Rio Grande and highs tomorrow will remain below 50 degrees for all but the far southern CWA.
The HRRR model run has been nearly spot on the start of the precipitation and the timing of the cold front passage. As for the rest of the day, it will be chilly day once the cold front moves through the area with some clearing of skies. Thursday morning, temperatures will drop to below freezing for most of the region.
541 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 Today and tonight: It will be much warmer than normal through tonight along with windy conditions in the west today and breezy conditions today elsewhere. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over northeast New Mexico that will tack east northeast across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles this morning then northeast to the Great Lakes region by Wednesday morning. Despite the increasing cloud cover and rain chances today, temperatures will top out in the low to mid 70s across much of our CWA.
The sharp cold front which blasted through the region yesterday is now pushing eastward along the New Mexico - Arizona border region, with Tucson even reporting some light snow as of the 2AM observation. Well below freezing temperatures are a certainty across the southern Great Basin with most of the Mojave Desert dropping to near or below freezing overnight as well.
Intense low pressure (985 mb) in far nw WI has sent a cold front through the cwa. Today: Much cooler and brisk with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. North to northwest winds gusting to 35 mph this morning will gradually decrease by afternoon as the cyclone fills and lifts north of Lake Superior. Tonight: Potent trough coming out of the southern Rockies will move into the Midwest. This system is progressive, has a positive-tilt trough, and the cyclone deepens well off to our east.
623 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper low spinning over northern Arizona will slowly eject eastward into the Southern Plains by tonight.
(Today through Thursday) A weak cold front will approach the CWA from the west today and stall across northern GA. Late tonight, this front will begin to push northward as a warm front. A second, stronger, cold front will begin to cross the Mississippi River by midday Thursday and continue eastward into central/eastern AL through the remainder of the afternoon. Thunder chances will increase again during the afternoon on Thursday as the stronger cold front approaches from the west and a bit more surface instability is available.
258 AM PST Wed Feb 15 2023 Dry and cooler weather expected through late week with a slow warming trend during the weekend. Short range ensembles are in good agreement moving the upper low that brought the breezy winds and isolated showers into the four corners region today. Valley highs will be much cooler through Thursday falling back into the low and upper 50's. Low temperatures will likely be near freezing at many Valley locations this morning and again Thursday morning with frost possible.
221 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2023 The snow continues to wind down across the area as low pressure moves away to the east. As for the high wind warning, models continue to indicate 50 to 55 knot winds across eastern Sweetwater County through the morning so we will let that ride. Areas like Casper will likely see somewhat warmer temperatures with increased mixing the atmosphere. We also thought about a wind chill advisory for eastern Sweetwater County for tonight but decided to punt since the high wind warning in still in effect.
617 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 (Today through Thursday) High pressure dominates the weather pattern in the short-term period. As an upper-level ridge slides eastward across South Florida, east-southeast flow has returned to the area leading to a warming trend through the period. On Thursday, highs will reach the low 80s for coastal regions and upper 80s for inland areas of South Florida. With high pressure aloft and dry air in place, not much to discuss in terms of precipitation with mostly sunny skies expected for most of the short-term period.
625 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions expected through the entire period for all terminals as high pressure remains in control. The upper-level ridge continues to propagate eastward today. Daytime highs look warmer this afternoon than yesterday, with most areas away from the water likely reaching the 80s.
Today we will remain in northwest flow so temperatures will be a bit cooler than the previous days. Locations through central parts of the CWA will be a few degrees above freezing initially, so a brief rain/ snow mix or rain can be expected. Highs will not rise above freezing on Thursday afternoon.
Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis had a 591dam high centered over the Florida straits and a closed low just west of the Four corners region. Ridging surface and aloft to our east will try to hang tough today while the closed low tracks to the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles by this evening then tracks northeast over the central Plains tonight. Deep moisture will increase over our region ahead of the approaching low pressure system today resulting in PWATs around an inch and a half and mid 60F surface dew points. Temperatures will top out much warmer than normal today in the mid to upper 70s working to increase instability. Although the threat for severe storms will wain toward sunrise, the chance for rain will continue as the cold front will still be back to the northwest.
344 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 Intense low pressure (985 mb) in far nw WI has sent a cold front through the cwa. Today: Much cooler and brisk with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. North to northwest winds gusting to 35 mph this morning will gradually decrease by afternoon as the cyclone fills and lifts north of Lake Superior. Tonight: Potent trough coming out of the southern Rockies will move into the Midwest. This system is progressive, has a positive-tilt trough, and the cyclone deepens well off to our east.
Current satellite image shows low clouds and freezing fog in portions of the Umpqua Basin. Upper ridging will build into the area with dry weather expected today.
440 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2023 |The closed upper low can be seen on water vapor imagery over far north central Arizona early this morning and will be approaching the 4 corners region after daybreak. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal with highs in the 20s to 30s across most of the plains and urban corridor.
But the best conditions for this exist farther west of the area this morning where the high RH air is being brought over the cooler waters. The cold front that was moving toward the area yesterday slammed the brakes and stalled to the west. Cold front moves through and NW winds will bring in dry cool air by late Thursday.
A narrow upper-level ridge will make its way over Nevada today, blocking any precipitation through the week and into the weekend.
The warm front will be south of TN and meander north during the day. It will also be quite warm with highs in the lower 70s to near 75 across middle TN with a few locations in the upper 60s at the higher locations on the Plateau. If any strong to severe storms occur they will be west of I-65 and associated with the warm front lifting north being closer to the low center. A strong cold front will move through tomorrow /Thursday/.
938 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 Strong winds and warm temperatures are forecast for today in the southwesterly flow ahead of deep low pressure that is advancing to Canada.
Frost and freezing temperatures are likely for many areas both this morning and Wednesday night. Example would be near Napa with temperatures in the low 40s. Weaker winds near Santa Rosa and Monterey have led to temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
632 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 Small rain chances return today through Thursday, mainly across western areas as a cold front approaches.
Meanwhile, mid level clouds along the Saskatchewan border push south as the lower-mid level flow pattern transitions to a mean trough through North Dakota. This evening, as high pressure at the surface advances southeast through Saskatchewan and into Manitoba, a deck of stratus clouds, with embedded snow flurries, pushes in to the Williston-Minot areas. The H5 trough axis is progged to push through most of the area by noon Thursday with clearing from the west. On Thursday the coldest of this cooler airmass will be shunted to the east and with return flow setting up temperatures should be about 5 degrees higher than those of today, at least west of a line from minot to Bismarck.
(Rest of today through Thursday) High pressure continues to dominates the weather pattern in the short-term period, leading to mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. The upper-level ridge over South Florida will continue to slide eastward over the Atlantic, resulting in southeast flow that will bring a warming trend throughout the period. Tomorrow, highs will be a few degrees warmer and reach the low 80s for east coast regions and mid to upper 80s for the gulf coast and interior regions.
Updated Aviation Well below normal temperatures are expected today behind a cold front that moved through the area last night. Widespread freezing temperatures are also likely Thursday morning.
Early morning satellite shows skies clearing behind the backdoor cold front yesterday with surface observations showing gusty winds across the Snake Plain, Eastern Highlands, City of Rocks NR, and Raft River Valley regions. While temperatures look to be just as cold over the coming nights, lighter winds will help to keep wind chills slightly warmer.
1224 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 Small rain chances return today through Thursday, mainly across western areas as a cold front approaches.
Water vapor imagery shows a closed upper low along the Colorado-New Mexico border making its way towards the central Plains. At the surface, last night's cold front has pushed into southern Missouri and central Oklahoma with colder air behind the front setting the stage for our winter storm tonight into Thursday morning. The closed low progresses east this evening and overnight with increased large- scale forcing generating precipitation across the forecast area. This all leads to high confidence in areas along and north of a line from Minneapolis to Holton receiving the highest snow amounts. South of the Turnpike, mid-level dry air hangs on through the early morning hours creating a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow through most of the event.
Through next Wednesday Our brisk north winds will continue to gradually diminish through the afternoon as trough slowly shifts east through the southern Rockies. Widespread freezing temperatures forecast, except for the lower Colorado River Valley and Death Valley where lows will bottom out in the mid 30s. Next trough approaching the PacNW coast tomorrow progged to split with southern stream energy pinching off into a cutoff low off the northwest CA coast.