Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
So confidence with the exact details are still on the lower side. An area of low pressure will move northeast across the region tonight. On the back side of the low winds will increase out of the west and become gusty with gusts up to around 35 mph occurring tonight and Thursday across the area. Low level clouds will also wrap around the back side of the low into the area late tonight into Thursday morning. Lows will drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30s tonight. Cooler conditions and windy conditions will occur Thursday as highs warm into the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
19 (This evening through Thursday) This afternoon, a negatively-tilted upper trough was located over the central Plains and pushing quickly eastward. At the surface, a low pressure system, which started to occlude this morning was also pushing eastward and dragging a cold front through east Texas into the southeast US. By sunrise Thursday, a secondary cold front will push southward into Texas from the central Plains, allowing low temperatures to fall into the the mid 30s. During the day on Thursday, high pressure will fill in across west Texas. High temperatures will therefore only reach the upper 50s across the Big Country and the low 60s further south.
404 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2023 A warm front will move north through the area tonight with unseasonably warm conditions continuing through Thursday and record highs possible.
Slight update to the forecast to increase coverage area for potential freezing fog farther north into the Island Park area and a bit more of the Eastern Highlands in general. Have already had a report of light freezing mist creating slick road conditions near the Ashton area.
627 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2023 (Through Tonight) The region is between high pressure to the southeast, and a stalled frontal boundary to the north this afternoon. As the ridge from the high builds back toward the area Tonight, the frontal boundary will push further away to the north. Lows Tonight in the lower to middle 50s are expected.
522 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 (This evening through Thursday) A deepening mid-level trough will continue to move towards the Midwest this evening. At the surface, a center of low pressure will follow in the wake of the aforementioned trough. Cooler air behind the front will bring temperatures to near average this evening and again tomorrow.
A trough will move across northern California tonight and into the Great Basin on Thursday bringing some light precipitation and a brief period of increased winds to the higher elevations.
Instability spreading north ahead of the cold front is supporting some robust convection along the line, and deep-layer wind shear will continue to support organized severe storms especially where bowing segments become aligned perpendicular to the mean flow aloft. Dry and not-too-chilly weather is expected through the day Thursday as westerly flow aloft and mid- level ridging keep skies clear and offset cold air advection.
A cold front was moving onshore across Humboldt County this afternoon. and an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out over the coastal ridges of SWRN Humboldt and Mendocino Counties.
This will be a fast storm with much of the precipitation and wind concentrated with the cold front, which radar is currently moving through far northwestern California.
618 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday Night) A warm front had lifted through Middle Tennessee and afternoon temps had warmed into the 60s across the area. This wx is associated with a strong low pressure system that will move across the Mid Ms Valley to the Great Lakes through the next 24 hours. Colder air will come in Thursday night with lows mostly in the lower 30s.
Overnight lows will reach the low to mid 40s north of I-10 and the upper 40s to low 50s south of I-10. As high pressure settles in tomorrow, mostly clear skies and light northerly winds means daytime highs will reach the mid to upper 60s for most areas except the Houston-Metro area which could reach near 70.
235 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2023 AFTERNOON UPDATE: The main concern tonight will be patchy freezing fog for the eastern zones.
Isolated thunderstorms may occur tomorrow evening along a cold front.
532 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 (This evening through Thursday) This afternoon, a negatively-tilted upper trough was located over the central Plains and pushing quickly eastward. At the surface, a low pressure system, which started to occlude this morning was also pushing eastward and dragging a cold front through east Texas into the southeast US. By sunrise Thursday, a secondary cold front will push southward into Texas from the central Plains, allowing low temperatures to fall into the the mid 30s. During the day on Thursday, high pressure will fill in across west Texas. High temperatures will therefore only reach the upper 50s across the Big Country and the low 60s further south.
As the low pressure system continues to move eastward across the region and into the Central Plains, expect snowfall to taper off from west to east. A weak and short lived ridge of high pressure will move over the region tonight and tomorrow, leading to clearing skies. Flow will turn southwesterly once again on Thursday afternoon, signalling the approach of yet another trough.
Upper ridging narrowing but remains overhead with surface ridging into N FL producing the warm and humid southerly low level flow. High pressure has shifted off into the Atlantic and will continue to drift away over through Thursday. As it does a cold front will start to push through the southeast.
148 PM PST Wed Jan 18 2023 Increasing high clouds today with high temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
524 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) Cold front will continue to sweep across the southern Texas Panhandle late this afternoon. Upper low over Kansas will continue to pull away from the region and then a short wave ridge will move across the Panhandles Thursday.
This cold slider trough will quickly traverse through the Pacific Northwest states tonight before digging into the southern Great Basin Thursday morning. An attendant cold front will advance through the region during this period, arriving to NE CA/N. A 40-50 kt 700 hPa jet maxima will overspread the Sierra this evening, fostering gusty ridgetop winds up to (and possibility exceeding) 90 mph at times.
637 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Fog is once again becoming more widespread across western and central North Dakota as we head into the evening, likely accompanied by patchy light freezing drizzle. Therefore, light snow or an enhanced area of freezing drizzle is possible with this feature. Forecast highlights/challenges will continue to be lingering fog and the potential for freezing drizzle/mist through the period. For tonight, mid level low will move east-northeast across far southern Saskatchewan, with a larger upper low over the upper Midwest centered over Iowa by 12Z Thursday. Will also need to monitor for the potential for light freezing drizzle developing again, thinking more across the east underneath upper level stretching, though any sort of lift could squeeze out the abundant moisture.
1012 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 (This evening through Thursday) A deepening mid-level trough will continue to move towards the Midwest this evening. At the surface, a center of low pressure will follow in the wake of the aforementioned trough. Cooler air behind the front will bring temperatures to near average this evening and again tomorrow.
An Atlantic ridge extending westward across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico is producing gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. The cooler shallow gulf and bay waters are allowing winds to be weaker and backed. However, the Keys will remain within the western reaches of the ridge and the Keys will retain a stable environment. A ridge across Florida will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes through the overnight period.
124 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 A deep cyclone over the Central Plains will lift out through the western Great Lakes Thursday. Another round of showers will follow ahead of a cold front this afternoon with a few thunderstorms possible over northwest Ohio. Substantial warm conveyor belt present in GOES vapor ewd of deepening plains cyclone will be curtailed some by increasing lower to mid MS valley convection but a decent rainfall for most sans far northeast tonight. Warm front will continue to lift north through northern Indiana early this morning in advance of deep cyclone lifting northeast into Iowa/northern Missouri. Passage of warm front to bring end to LLWS next couple hours as southeast low level jet lifts into southern Lower Michigan.
00Z upper air & satellite imagery indicate upper cold core low situated over KS/NE border, with cold front moving across the region. With strong SW flow & LLJ, lows will remain above normal in the SE in upper 50s to near 60 degrees while near to below normal elsewhere in the low-mid 50s. Instability spreading north ahead of the cold front is supporting some robust convection along the line, and deep-layer wind shear will continue to support organized severe storms especially where bowing segments become aligned perpendicular to the mean flow aloft. Dry and not-too-chilly weather is expected through the day Thursday as westerly flow aloft and mid- level ridging keep skies clear and offset cold air advection.
The wind and moisture kept the temperatures from falling to the lower 60s. The short-term forecast remains on track, with deep layer ridging encompassing the region and promoting calm and warm weather conditions and nil rain chances. A cold front currently east of Louisiana will slide eastward and near the Panhandle of Florida sometime tonight. The arrival of the frontal boundary will cause the ridge to retreat eastward, resulting in the east to southeast breezes advecting rich moisture into the area over the next 24 hours.
(Today and tonight) Winds have diminished across the area this morning in the wake of a cold front that has shifted southeast through the region. Cloud cover will stick with us overnight which will help keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer than this morning.
159 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2023 08z surface analysis had low over northwest MO and another over north central MT with a trough connecting the two. Water vapour loop depicted upper low over southeast NE with leftover deformation zone snows tapering off for south-central SD. A weaker upper low noted over southeast SK. Today/tonight, both upper lows shift east.
For the KC Metro area, given morning temperatures will just hover at or just above freezing, anticipate light rain and snow to be the primary precipitation types. Early on, soundings suggest a very narrow window for freezing rain, with a shallow warm nose, latest trends are not as confident, given saturation of the column through the DGZ, loss of the warm layer, and surface temperatures holding just above freezing longer or never at all dropping below freezing. Therefore, the impact will likely be very low or isolated for any hour or two of freezing rain. Not much cool air is on tap given the placement of a large trough over the western U.
Some freezing rain is mixing in within a narrow corridor between these two areas, though it seems to be fairly transient, limiting ice accretions. By 4 AM, the steadier precipitation should be limited to Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, and northern Washington and Ozaukee Counties, with just light drizzle/freezing drizzle and snow flurries elsewhere. Temperatures in most locations will be just above freezing, so freezing drizzle will be very limited. Could see a bit more freezing drizzle tonight mixing in with occasional snow showers, before drier air builds into the area from the northwest, ending the precip threat.
The low level jet and pressure gradient have allowed for good mixing ahead of the line with gusts of 30-35kt at times. For the rest of today, mild and dry southwest flow will develop in the wake of the trough passage with dew points falling into the 30s. A cold front arrives late this afternoon, shifting winds to the northwest but will diminish quickly early this evening.
While the short term progs are not handling the FG/low stratus well at all, there is some consensus that the pressure gradient will tighten just a bit overnight ahead of a cold front analyzed from NE into Srn OK into NW TX, that will continue drifting SE into NE TX/SW AR through daybreak Thursday. Did make some minor upward bumps to the min temps tonight, mainly across portions of Lower E TX/N LA/SCntrl AR as 03Z temps over these areas are running slightly warmer than forecast.
331 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 Discussion/Marine - Ongoing Mixed Precipitation Through This Morning Current surface obs (as of 2:30AM) show temperatures still above freezing for most of the area, but areas up near Clare, Osceola, Mecosta and Isabella Counties are beginning to drop a little closer to freezing. A mixture of p-types is still expected across the advisory area with sleet expected to be more prevalent than freezing rain.
(Today and tonight) The upper low and jet max partly responsible for yesterday's wind event has continued to move off to the north and east.
Folks in the Lower Treasure Valley and as far east as just into Elmore County may see precipitation begin as rain before quickly transitioning over the snow, with accumulation beginning shortly thereafter.
1025 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 (The rest of tonight) Cold front pushing into NE OK this evening will move through the rest of the forecast area overnight. (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Noticeably cooler temps tomorrow with breezy winds continuing through much of the day before diminishing by sunset.
(The rest of tonight) Cold front pushing into NE OK this evening will move through the rest of the forecast area overnight. (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Noticeably cooler temps tomorrow with breezy winds continuing through much of the day before diminishing by sunset.
1040 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 (This evening through Thursday) This afternoon, a negatively-tilted upper trough was located over the central Plains and pushing quickly eastward. At the surface, a low pressure system, which started to occlude this morning was also pushing eastward and dragging a cold front through east Texas into the southeast US. By sunrise Thursday, a secondary cold front will push southward into Texas from the central Plains, allowing low temperatures to fall into the the mid 30s. During the day on Thursday, high pressure will fill in across west Texas. High temperatures will therefore only reach the upper 50s across the Big Country and the low 60s further south.
1041 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) Cold front will continue to sweep across the southern Texas Panhandle late this afternoon. Upper low over Kansas will continue to pull away from the region and then a short wave ridge will move across the Panhandles Thursday.
As a compact mid- level low crosses the state today, there may be some clearing in the west behind a very weak surface pressure trough. Lower level omega looks mostly non existent on BUFKIT soundings tonight as the mid- level wave should be passing to the east, which should lesson the possibility of the freezing mist or drizzle the area has seen recently.
A cold frontal system is bringing snow to the silver state today.
Winds will still be southerly today thus there won/t be much of a temperature change as highs will still be in the lower to mid 60s today. Overnight lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 30s which is above climatology and highs tomorrow will be quite a bit cooler than today and yesterday. It might be cooler.
Drier conditions are expected today and Friday as upper level ridging builds into the region.
458 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 (Today through Friday) A cold front will move through the CWA today. Gusty winds will be possible ahead of and behind the cold front today. The highest gusts will be likely at elevations above 2000 feet, with values approaching 35 mph. High pressure and dry conditions are expected tonight and tomorrow.
(Today through Friday) A cold front will move through the CWA today. Gusty winds will be possible ahead of and behind the cold front today. The highest gusts will be likely at elevations above 2000 feet, with values approaching 35 mph. High pressure and dry conditions are expected tonight and tomorrow.
High pressure shifts east today as a cold front approaches the area from the NW. Slightly cooler conditions move into the Nature Coast with this, but elsewhere remains on the warm side through Friday as the rain clears out.
A trough and associated upper level low will approach the area from the west today. The upper level low will dig fairly far south of Wyoming as well as most of the energy.
600 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 H5 analysis from tonight had a closed low over north central Kansas. A trough extended south of this feature into the Texas Panhandle. Over the rest of the CONUS tonight, the main features of note were a low amplitude ridge which extended from the Carolinas north into eastern Ohio and a deepening trough of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest states. Overnight, winds were generally from the north or north-northwest at 10 to 20 MPH and temperatures were in the lower to middle 20s.
311 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Showers will trickle out in southeast Mississippi this morning as a longwave trough ejects out of the Lower Mississippi River Valley to the northeast. Behind it, a cold frontal boundary will move in, bringing drier and cooler air into the region today. Highs will range from the upper 50s in the northwest, to the low 70s in the far southeast.
The upper low associated with this system will be north of Kansas City by 6 am and, and the HREF ensemble mean shows the 850 mb wind field weakening dramatically in the post dawn hours following the end of the very light snow an flurries.
May see a little light snow linger over east central South Dakota through mid morning or so, then high pressure will settle in over the central part of the country, and will remain the dominant feature over the area through the day Friday. High temperatures today will range from the lower 20s across west central Minnesota and northeastern South Dakota, to the upper 20s to lower 30s west of the Missouri River. Highs on Friday will be mainly in the 20s, with a few locations across south central South Dakota possibly reaching the lower 30s.
Nearly vertically stacked low pressure over northern Missouri this morning will track northeast into the Great Lakes region later today. A few showers also cannot be ruled out across our Wabash Valley communities in southeast Illinois and southwest Indiana as a lobe of energy pivots south of the upper low, but better chances should remain just north of the forecast area.
536 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the central plains embedded in a deep trough. This low and trough head east into the upper Great Lakes by 00z Fri. Expect the lake enhanced/upslope snow to quickly diminish over the higher terrain of Marquette County late tonight into early Fri morning with impressive mid-level drying/subsidence ahead of advancing mid- level ridge from northern Ontario and the Northern Plains as noted on model fcst soundings.
838 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 Low pressure will track across the Upper Great Lakes and bring rain to the entire state today. Some high elevation freezing rain is likely, mainly north of I-80. Gusty winds are expected behind the cold front slated to pass through during the first half of the night.
(Thursday through Friday) A frontal boundary from near Texarkana to Lufkin to gradually shift east as dry high pressure builds in its wake. Dewpoint values currently ranging from the lower 20s west of the boundary to the mid 40s to the east. This is due to multiple troughs exiting the Intermountain West in southwesterly flow across the lower Great Plains.
Sunshine returns behind a departing cold front. As high pressure builds in, effective boundary layer decoupling under the clear skies and a drying airmass will allow overnight temperatures to quickly drop to freezing levels.
541 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 (Today and tonight) A pleasant (seasonable) weather day, with nil impact, is expected across the region as high pressure establishes. Northwest winds may remain somewhat breezy through about 1-3 PM, especially across north/northeast Oklahoma, owing to a deepening surface cyclone (isallobaric response) across the western Great Lakes. Temperatures in the low-20s across northern Oklahoma to upper-30s across the Red River Valley are forecast.
421 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 High pressure shifts east today as a cold front approaches the area from the NW. Slightly cooler conditions move into the Nature Coast with this, but elsewhere remains on the warm side through Friday as the rain clears out.
504 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 (Thursday through Friday) A frontal boundary from near Texarkana to Lufkin to gradually shift east as dry high pressure builds in its wake. Dewpoint values currently ranging from the lower 20s west of the boundary to the mid 40s to the east. This is due to multiple troughs exiting the Intermountain West in southwesterly flow across the lower Great Plains.
325 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 H5 analysis from tonight had a closed low over north central Kansas. A trough extended south of this feature into the Texas Panhandle. Over the rest of the CONUS tonight, the main features of note were a low amplitude ridge which extended from the Carolinas north into eastern Ohio and a deepening trough of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest states. Overnight, winds were generally from the north or north-northwest at 10 to 20 MPH and temperatures were in the lower to middle 20s.
(Today and tonight) A pleasant (seasonable) weather day, with nil impact, is expected across the region as high pressure establishes. Northwest winds may remain somewhat breezy through about 1-3 PM, especially across north/northeast Oklahoma, owing to a deepening surface cyclone (isallobaric response) across the western Great Lakes. Temperatures in the low-20s across northern Oklahoma to upper-30s across the Red River Valley are forecast.
532 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 (Today and tonight) Winds have diminished across the area this morning in the wake of a cold front that has shifted southeast through the region. Cloud cover will stick with us overnight which will help keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer than this morning.
May be some pulses here and there, so will keep the low end thunder mention in the forecast but mainly rain and stronger winds. Drier and cooler air works in this afternoon and tonight with readings back into the 30s north to low 40s in the south.
Similar conditions can be expected for Friday, with temperatures a touch cooler over the east.
Still, snowfall amounts for the high country generally remain between ~3-8 inches: areas that primarily saw notable drops in snowfall were along the Mogollon Rim, south of the Grand Canyon. Lower elevations will still look to get in on this snowfall as well thanks to the lower snow levels. Local areas of MVFR in low clouds over the high country this morning, especially from KFLG-KSEZ- KPAN.
An upper low will be digging south through the Great Basin tonight and then move eastward to south of the Four Corners region on Friday. While this occurs on Friday, a weak short wave trough will move out of northern Mexico into the Edwards Plateau. Isentropic upglide will develop in the 295-300K layer late tonight as a coastal trough forms along the lower Texas coast. It will be cooler on Friday as clouds overspread the region inland from the developing coastal trough. East to northeast flow will increase over the Gulf waters on Friday ahead of the coastal trough. But this will increase on Friday as east-northeast flow strengthens due to the developing coastal trough.