Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
127 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 A slow moving upper low will meander to our west through midweek before finally lifting north and east by the weekend. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s with lows in the lower to middle 70s. The area will remain unsettled however with the more typical summertime features for the forcing such as the sea breeze and inland Piedmont trough. The higher pops will be in place during the daytime hours as well.
1227 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 (Today through Wednesday) In the lower levels, we have a stalled boundary situated just SE of a DYA to ANB line. Our welcome break from the rainfall will be short lived thanks to the approaching upper low.
(This evening through Wednesday) Upper level ridging continues over the Central U. and a prominent low pressure system remains in the Pacific Northwest. The area of high pressure will persist over the next 24 hours. Temperatures tomorrow look to be a few degrees cooler and no heat highlights look to be warranted at this time.
1117 AM PDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Broad troughing pattern persists aloft.
311 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Low pressure will reside across the Tennessee Valley through mid week. The low will then return north late in the week before pushing off to the east over the weekend. Upper low continues to reside over the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s north to mid 60s south. Upper low remains to the south Wednesday and Wednesday night. As such, temperatures will be warmer across the north (lower 80s) and cooler in the south (upper 70s). Lows will mainly be in the lower 60s.
Heat warning has been extended until 9 PM Wednesday, as high pressure aloft, centered in N. Additional storms may move east from the High Plains and Permian Basin towards evening.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) The CWA will continue to remain under the influence of the quasi- stationary upper level ridge during the period.
1135 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 A moist pattern, with above normal rainfall chances, and below normal high temperatures, will continue for at least several more days, as an upper level low remains nearly stationary just to our W and NW, with a moist atmosphere remaining in place.
1214 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Slightly below normal temperatures will continue across the Mid- South through the end of the workweek as an upper level low pressure system remains in close proximity to the region. Summertime heat should return this weekend as upper level high pressure builds in from the west.
Low temps will range between 55-65F or slightly cooler vs. It will be a breezy day across the lower Susquehanna Valley with sustained winds from the east southeast 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph.
450 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Unsettled weather will continue through the next 24 hrs as the closed upper low over eastern Tennessee drifts southward into Georgia. For Wednesday, we'll be a bit more on the periphery of the upper low, with less available deep moisture especially in northern Kentucky.
922 AM PDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Slight warming continues today and Wednesday in advance of a low pressure system approaching the West Coast.
311 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Low pressure will remain stalled across the region through this week leading to unsettled weather. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-level closed low centered over the Tennessee River Valley will more-or-less remain stationary through the short-term, part of the larger scale Rex Blocking pattern encompassing the CONUS.
107 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 A moist pattern, with above normal rainfall chances, and below normal high temperatures, will continue for at least several more days, as an upper level low remains nearly stationary just to our W and NW, with a moist atmosphere remaining in place.
Tonight and Wednesday Quiet and warm weather will continue through Wednesday, with upper and surface ridging occurring across the region. will continue with a dry forecast, even though a few convective-allowing models generate scattered showers during the afternoon, as ridging prevails and there is a lack of a trigger. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday An upper level ridge and the western periphery of an eastern Canadian/northeast U.
Low rain chances and even warmer temps this weekend. Little chance in the weather is expected for Wednesday though some clouds may move over the eastern ozarks allowing for slightly cooler temperatures during the afternoon with highs in the middle 80s, for areas closer to the Kansas state line, temperatures will again climb into the lower 90s. The blocking pattern will remains in place through the remainder of the work week. The upper low to the east will slowly move east into the end of the week and the weekend allowing the upper level ridge over the central plains to enhance and slide east. Heading into the weekend, the upper ridge loos like it will ultimately slide into the Ozarks.
Discussion: Currently, upper low is moving slowly south across the southern Plateau with bands of convection spiraling around this low. HREF depicts southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina with the highest mean and Probability Matched Mean rainfall. For Wednesday, upper low moves south of the Tennessee with some drier and more stabilized air over the northern and central sections decreasing coverage of afternoon convection. Greatest coverage of showers and storms will be across southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina closer to the proximity of upper low. An unsettled pattern continues for with scattered showers and a few storms, with the highest coverage during afternoon peak heating. Discussion: Wednesday afternoon the low pressure system that's been sitting over us will remain the main weather player.
329 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 (Issued 329 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023) Tonight through Wednesday night: Quiet weather is expected during this period, as high pressure remains anchored to the east northeast of the area. Some smoke aloft will linger over the region at times, as the upper level ridge axis remains in place.
208 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Cooler than average temperatures will continue this week, along with a few daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, as a few weak weather systems push through the area.
This afternoon, showers and isolated thunderstorms have rapidly developed as low pressure centers move into the region from the west. However, northwest Montana will experience lingering showers throughout the night due to a low pressure circulation.
302 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday) The latest satellite data still shows a nearly stationary low pressure center spinning over central TN. Low clouds this morning have gradually given way to a CU field across much of the CWA and a few thunderstorms are already starting to pop up across the NE Georgia mountains where the cold front begins to occlude. Temps will be near average over the course of the short term, with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s. Some areas may struggle to reach these highs as the atmosphere becomes rain cooled such as the higher elevations where highs are capped at the mid 70s.
Winds look to be less of an issue tomorrow and 850mb temps suggest a bit cooler temps over the region, especially close to, and west of the surface front.
232 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 With a blocking upper pattern persisting for a few more days, rain chances will be few and far between through late week. The highest temperatures will be near and west of I-55 the next few days, with highs frequently reaching the lower 90s, but more widespread 90s are expected this weekend.
1002 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 (Issued 1002 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023) Quiet weather is expected into Wednesday, as high pressure remains anchored to the east northeast of the area. Some smoke aloft will linger over the region at times, as the upper level ridge axis remains in place.
Models seem to be on track for slightly "cooler" temperatures for the latter parts of the week, but conditions should remain at/near Heat Advisory cri- teria the next few days at the very least.
149 PM PDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Well below average temperatures will prevail today with subfreezing overnight lows expected tonight into Wednesday morning across Sierra valleys.
Ongoing fog impacts continue this morning in the Long Valley and the West-Central Mountain valleys, with sub-freezing temperatures likely causing some enhanced impacts. Given the cool temperatures and marginal instability present, convective intensity will be limited due to the low-topped nature of any storms that develop, with a small hail threat (20% chance) accompanying the most robust cells.
819 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Low pressure will remain stalled across the region through this week leading to unsettled weather. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-level closed low centered over the Tennessee River Valley will more-or-less remain stationary through the short-term, part of the larger scale Rex Blocking pattern encompassing the CONUS.
509 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Southwest flow continues across Wyoming as a broad trough sits over the northwestern CONUS. Not much change is expected on Wednesday as the trough remains to our west, though the axis will shift a little closer.
Unsettled weather will continue through the next 24 hrs as the closed upper low over eastern Tennessee drifts southward into Georgia. For Wednesday, we'll be a bit more on the periphery of the upper low, with less available deep moisture especially in northern Kentucky.
Current satellite imagery shows troughing over much of the western CONUS associated with a potent low spinning over the Pacific Northwest. Global ensembles indicate that this troughing pattern will persist over the next several days, which will help keep regional temperatures near to slightly below normal. High temperatures for the next few days across the lower deserts will run in the lower to mid 100s. The aforementioned trough shows signs of digging further south for the latter portion of this week, which could once again enhance the regional pressure gradient and usher in the return of breezy to windy conditions for our CWA.
633 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Upper level ridging continues over the Central U. and a prominent low pressure system remains in the Pacific Northwest. The area of high pressure will persist over the next 24 hours. Temperatures tomorrow look to be a few degrees cooler and no heat highlights look to be warranted at this time.
632 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Visible satellite imagery depicts developing cumulus across parts of Indiana along the northern flanks of an expansive cyclonic upper low pinwheeling across the Tennessee River Valley.
734 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Low pressure will reside across the Tennessee Valley through mid week. The low will then return north late in the week before pushing off to the east over the weekend. Upper low continues to reside over the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s north to mid 60s south. Upper low remains to the south Wednesday and Wednesday night. As such, temperatures will be warmer across the north (lower 80s) and cooler in the south (upper 70s). Lows will mainly be in the lower 60s.
30/Sirmon Slightly below normal temperatures will continue across the Mid- South through the end of the workweek as an upper level low pressure system remains in close proximity to the region.
Key Messages: * The heat continues today with highs reaching the low to mid-90s for much of the area.
222 PM PDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Cooler than normal temperatures this week.
Temperatures throughout the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. The low to mid levels of the sounding show a dry profile with the near saturation layers being around 450 mb and another one near 300 mb. Hence, the high level cirrus clouds the Keys have been seeing late this afternoon through the evening hours. However, will add that the Lower and Middle Keys will most likely remain fully dry overnight.
828 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 A moist pattern, with above normal rainfall chances and below normal high temperatures, will continue for several more days with an upper level low nearly stationary just to our west.
550 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Aviation Section Updated Cooler than average temperatures will continue this week, along with a few daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, as a few weak weather systems push through the area.
754 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 With a blocking upper pattern persisting for a few more days, rain chances will be few and far between through late week. The highest temperatures will be near and west of I-55 the next few days, with highs frequently reaching the lower 90s, but more widespread 90s are expected this weekend.
845 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 The upper level low over the region brought another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. The upper level low will remain over the region tomorrow and that will bring another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms, although the low will be a bit further south and east tomorrow and we may not see quite as numerous showers and storms as what we saw today.
Similar to yesterday, convection peripheral to the cyclone's center (and largely tied to the diurnal warming cycle) has diminished in both coverage and intensity over the last couple of hours, and we expect locations across northwest AL to remain precip-free for the majority of the overnight period.
646 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Eastern US low pressure will keep rain chances in the forecast through the weekend.
641 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Eastern US low pressure will keep rain chances in the forecast through the weekend.
918 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Scattered showers and storms continue across mainly northern parts of the area as spokes of vorticity rotate around the mid/upper level trough located over the southeast states. Lows in the lower 70s, and skies will continue at partly to mostly cloudy overnight.
924 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Low pressure will reside across the Tennessee Valley through mid week. The low will then return north late in the week before pushing off to the east over the weekend. Bulk of the shower activity appears to be east of I-75 at the start of the period and moving from the northeast toward the southwest (yes, you read that correctly) thanks to the low pressure system sitting near the Tennessee Valley region. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s north to mid 60s south. Upper low remains to the south Wednesday and Wednesday night. As such, temperatures will be warmer across the north (lower 80s) and cooler in the south (upper 70s). Lows will mainly be in the lower 60s.
647 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 With a blocking upper pattern persisting for a few more days, rain chances will be few and far between through late week. The highest temperatures will be near and west of I-55 the next few days, with highs frequently reaching the lower 90s, but more widespread 90s are expected this weekend.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) The latest satellite data still shows a nearly stationary low pressure center spinning over central TN. Low clouds this morning have gradually given way to a CU field across much of the CWA and a few thunderstorms are already starting to pop up across the NE Georgia mountains where the cold front begins to occlude. Temps will be near average over the course of the short term, with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s. Some areas may struggle to reach these highs as the atmosphere becomes rain cooled such as the higher elevations where highs are capped at the mid 70s.
636 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The CWA will continue to remain under the influence of the quasi- stationary upper level ridge during the period.
Troughing continues with below normal max temperatures expected the next few days, despite slight warming on Wednesday. Breezy winds as a result of the troughing expected to decrease after Wednesday evening and through the remainder of the week, becoming light for most areas.
356 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Southwest flow continues across Wyoming as a broad trough sits over the northwestern CONUS. Not much change is expected on Wednesday as the trough remains to our west, though the axis will shift a little closer.
409 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Key Messages: * The heat continues today with highs reaching the low to mid-90s for much of the area.
927 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Deep layer high pressure will continue to bring clear skies across the region tonight. High pressure just off the New England coast will continue to extend ridging back toward upper MI.
Some increase in mid/upper level clouds will be possible Wednesday around the far northern fringe of low pressure to the south. Despite prevailing easterly flow, dewpoints have been able to rise into the lower 60s for most areas this afternoon, with even a couple mid 60s readings out there making it feel more on the humid side with high temps peaking in the low/mid 80s. Cloud cover rapidly diminishes overnight with stable conditions overhead and high cloud from an upper-level trough over the Tennessee Valley remaining far enough to the south/southeast. A persistent light easterly wind will keep low temps in the low/mid 60s for most outside of the upper 50s for the interior Thumb.
630 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Summary: The Northland remains under the influence of a blocking pattern with upper level riding overhead suppressing rain chances and allowing for above normal temperatures.
Outside of that, moisture return across the north east from an ejecting upper low has warranted some light showers but should too end by or before midnight. Upper closed low continues to remain over the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and will slowly drift southeastward into Georgia by Wednesday. The upper low will be centered over Georgia on Wednesday, with some drier air building over the western portions of the area.
MH (Issued 329 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023) Tonight through Wednesday night: Quiet weather is expected during this period, as high pressure remains anchored to the east northeast of the area. Some smoke aloft will linger over the region at times, as the upper level ridge axis remains in place.
841 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Cooler than average temperatures will continue this week, along with a few daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, as a few weak weather systems push through the area.
A broad trough remains over the region, so another cool start is expected followed by afternoon convection.
Persistent blocking pattern remains, with high pressure in the Great Lakes Region, leading to low level easterly flow into the area. Tonight, given clear skies and light winds, a large diurnal change is expected, with most going from near 90 today to the low 60s. Rex block still on track to occupy much of the mid and eastern CONUS, with closed upper low still spiraling acrs the TN Valley region.
This upper low is the progged to lift steadily back to the north and perhaps slightly farther to the east late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. At the surface a ridge of high pressure will extend across much of the western half of the CWA. Not expecting much change in the weather pattern with respect to the diurnal shower and thunderstorm potential through at at least Thursday afternoon as the aforementioned upper trough lingers nearby.
(Through tonight) Issued at 149 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the east coast, one in the western U. and a ridge stretching from Mexico up to Hudson Bay. This ridge will remain over the upper Great Lakes through 12z Wed. Under anomalous ridging with 585-590 dam 5H heights over the Upper Great Lakes as part of a rex block over the eastern CONUS, dry weather and very warm to hot conditions will continue across Upper MI Wed/Thu. So, it will be cooler near Lake MI both days, generally 75-80F. Temps at night will fall into the low/mid 50s to low/mid 60s F, warmest over portions of the w to n central where downsloping southerly winds will be stirring at night. Cooler conditions are expected along the Lakes.
00z upper air analysis and early morning GOES 16 water vapor imagery shows active weather zones well to our west over the northern Plains and to our southeast with an upper low spinning over Georgia and Alabama. Between these two areas, an elongated upper high centered over Mexico stretched northeast towards Lake Superior. Some fair weather cumulus was observed yesterday in central IL, where dewpoints reached the lower 60s and that will be possible today in our CWA.
An upper trough will slowly work its way eastward over the rest of the week.
130 AM PDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Cooler than normal temperatures this week. Upper level trough will remain over NorCal through the week with upper low developing over the Bay Area Thursday. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the mountains Thursday afternoon and evening ahead of the low.
This will change given multiple models depict decent H7/H3 PVA across the area today as the low drifts ever so slightly back toward the region. Energy will rotate around the low and across our area on its west side from midday through this evening. We could touch criteria briefly here and there, especially across the lower Wabash River Valley region.
430 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Low pressure will reside across the Tennessee Valley through mid week. The low will then return north late in the week before pushing off to the east over the weekend. Lows will mainly be in the lower 60s. Temperatures to be muted by clouds and pcpn development with highs from the lower/middle 70s southeast to the upper 70s northwest.
1001 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 A few showers linger across portions of west Tennessee and North Mississippi on the west side of an upper level low centered over northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia. The upper level low will move to the south over the next 24 hours or so then return to the north keeping the Midsouth on the west/drier side of the low. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler tomorrow and Thursday with highs mainly in the low to middle 80s.
Multiple days of rain and cooler temperatures have brought relief after an otherwise dry last few weeks. The upper level low that has been responsible for the last few days of rain will continue to affect our region for the next couple of days.
1215 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 The upper level low over the region brought another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. The upper level low will remain over the region tomorrow and that will bring another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms, although the low will be a bit further south and east tomorrow and we may not see quite as numerous showers and storms as what we saw today. (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows an upper-level low pressure system spinning near the TN/KY border, and there is plenty of moisture available with a PWAT of 1. This low and all of the moisture continues to be the focus for the rest of the week as the low meanders over the TN/KY area.
Key Messages: - Slight cooler temperatures expected today and tomorrow due to increased cloud cover over the area.
Cooler high temps in the 70s will be found close to Lake Superior today.
1243 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Eastern US low pressure will keep rain chances in the forecast through the weekend. Afternoon temperatures will be near average through the week with the exception of cooler temperatures on Thursday. Afternoon/evening precipitation will likely be limited to the ridges of WV/PA accordingly.
Low rain chances and even warmer temps this weekend. Little change in the weather is expected for Wednesday though some clouds may move over the eastern ozarks allowing for slightly cooler temperatures during the afternoon with highs in the middle 80s. For areas closer to the Kansas state line, temperatures will again climb into the lower 90s. The blocking pattern will remains in place through the remainder of the work week. The upper low to the east will slowly move east into the end of the week and the weekend allowing the upper level ridge over the central plains to enhance and slide east. Heading into the weekend, the upper ridge looks like it will ultimately slide into the Ozarks.