Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) The front has arrived and is currently set up somewhere just south of the I-10 corridor, so if it feels a bit cooler stepping outside today, that's why! With a fairly active night of thunderstorms across the west and lingering showers continuing across SE New Mexico for much of the morning, many spots there haven't warmed above the 70s yet. Northwesterly flow returns and drier air will settle over the area, limiting precipitation chance for Tuesday to only the higher terrain and Big Bend region. The process of ridge building over the west will take the majority of Tuesday while surface winds will remain mostly out of the east, so afternoon temperatures won't have the chance to warm much and should look fairly similar to Monday.
Until then, we're seeing heat indices of 110-115 degrees across the area under a zonal flow pattern with flattened ridging stretched across the ArkLaTex and Lower MS Valley. The ridge is being flattened by a broad trough centered over the Midwest region which will track eastward into the Ohio Valley through tomorrow. We will see storms this afternoon, but with less coverage as dry mid-level air has moved overhead and the cold front is still north of the area. These storms could show a bit more organization along the front as the trough boosts eff. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s northwest to upper 90s southeast.
A vigorous low pressure system (especially for this of year) is progressing across the Midwest early this afternoon. On the back side of this system northwesterly flow through the column is ushering in much cooler and drier air into the Central Plains. As a result, temperatures are topping out in the low to mid 80s this afternoon and will likely dip well into the mid 50s tonight.
1034 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure moving east across southern MN, with high pressure centered over WY. Upper level analysis shows compact low over far southwest MN, with high pressure over the Pacific NW. Temps are on the chilly side this morning, mostly mid 40s to mid 50s, with some cooler spots across the higher Black Hills. A dry work week is expected as upper high and negatively tilted ridge remain across much of the western US into the southern Plains. A more typical August wx pattern will develop across our area as warmer air builds back into the northern Plains over the next couple of days.
Moderate CU field developing across the higher elevations, including the coastal range. This will continue over the next few days as the ridge to the east retrogrades and heights rise.
1012 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 The upper low has pretty much pulled east of the forecast area this morning.
102 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase today and Tuesday with crossing low pressure. Dry weather will return by mid week under high pressure. As it stands, the region of concern has the highest Flash Flood Guidance, so while the threat is there for some isolated issues, it was not high enough to warrant a flood watch at this time and will remain highlighted in the HWO. Precipitation probabilities will be on the decrease with the loss of heating tonight but will remain non-zero given the proximity the the passing upper trough.
Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the area this afternoon, with the highest coverage expected to be roughly west of Highway 301.
711 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Low pressure will bring showers to the region this evening. Dry weather will return by mid week under high pressure.
Cooler and drier air will settle into the region by midweek, with seasonable temperatures. Widespread rain showers with limited embedded thunder ahead of a warm front -- associated with an initial impulse have tracked northeast thru ILN/s area this morning into the aftn Considerable cloud cover has limited instability thru early afternoon. Increasing deep layer flow and favorable low level moisture will work to offer ML CAPES values of 500 to around 1000 J/KG ahead of eastward advancing surface cold front. The convective activity will be focused along a southward sagging surface trof. Highs on Tuesday will be well below seasonal normals, ranging from the lower 70s north to the upper 70s south.
838 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Temperatures will be on the rise this week as upper level ridging builds into the area. Expect highs to soar into the mid to upper 90s on Tuesday across the lower elevation areas.
641 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 An upper low will bring isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to portions of central Illinois the rest of today, then dry weather will be favored through midweek.
913 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 An upper low will bring isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to portions of central Illinois the rest of today, then dry weather will be favored through midweek.
639 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) The cold front that moved through the area early this morning will bring us some of the coolest overnight temperatures we have seen since mid-July. During the overnight hours, winds at the low levels of the atmosphere will veer to the southeast. Temperatures will warm again above or near seasonal averages on Tuesday with an upper ridge beginning to resettle across the southern Rockies.
832 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Abundant, deep layer moisture will stream north over a warm front that was located near the Mason/Dixon line.
450 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2023 As a low pressure system pushes into the Great Lakes region, a broad upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is over western SD, winds are light, and temperatures are rising into the 70s. Upper ridging will keep weather dry and very warm for much of this week.
738 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the area this afternoon, with the highest coverage expected to be roughly west of Highway 301.
702 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 A cold front will push through tonight bringing a much needed break in the heat to the Mid-South. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected through mid-week with morning lows in the 60s. An upper ridge will build into the region toward the end of the week.
621 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) The front has arrived and is currently set up somewhere just south of the I-10 corridor, so if it feels a bit cooler stepping outside today, that's why! With a fairly active night of thunderstorms across the west and lingering showers continuing across SE New Mexico for much of the morning, many spots there haven't warmed above the 70s yet. Northwesterly flow returns and drier air will settle over the area, limiting precipitation chance for Tuesday to only the higher terrain and Big Bend region. The process of ridge building over the west will take the majority of Tuesday while surface winds will remain mostly out of the east, so afternoon temperatures won't have the chance to warm much and should look fairly similar to Monday.
GNC A cold front will push through tonight bringing a much needed break in the heat to the Mid-South. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected through mid-week with morning lows in the 60s. An upper ridge will build into the region toward the end of the week.
High pressure will continue to ridge across the waters through Tuesday, with southwesterly flow leading to showers and storms developing over the eastern Gulf overnight and shifting onshore during the morning hours.
A weakening mid-level trough stretching from the northeast U. through the lower Mississippi Valley will continue to be stretched thin, though a general "troughy" pattern aloft will exist across the Florida peninsula through late week and into Sat before moving west of the peninsula and across the GoMex.
A slow moving upper level low with a well defined comma cloud continues to move through central Iowa and is bringing a band of showers out ahead of it. This system given; the pattern and progression of the upper level low, the reduced reflectivity and given the time of year has the hallmarks of a Subtle Heavy Rainfall Signature event or (SHRS) Spayd and Scofield (1983). The thick cloud edge can be seen on latest Visible satellite and shows the slow progression of the low. The biggest question is determining and tracking the position of the pivot point for the low. However, due to the reduced heating, increased CIN, the lack of instability and the position of the low, any severe weather threat has shifted to the south.
Quite the seasonally anomalous (thats weatherperson talk for really weird for this time of year) upper level closed low spinning into northern Illinois this afternoon. A strong surface cold front is set up to the south and making its way through the CWA. This should greatly limit precip chances as well as make for warm but not excessively hot days with much reduced humidity with upper level troughing slowly drifting southeast just to our east.
Temperatures will be on the rise this week as upper level ridging builds into the area. Expect highs to soar into the mid to upper 90s on Tuesday across the lower elevation areas.
Cold front dropping south through central Sask losing steam and will barely reach the NE zones tomorrow morning with a few clouds and a subtle wind shift. Have a great night! TFJ AFTERNOON UPDATE: Clouds remained limited across NE Montana today as upper ridging built over the region on the backside of an upper trough digging toward the Great Lakes.
634 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) A cold front is currently moving through the Concho Valley and will continue to slowly move south through the afternoon and evening hours. "Cooler" temperatures are occurring behind the front with temperatures across the Big Country in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Expect overnight lows a bit cooler than what we have seen the last several nights, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. This cloud cover could result in temperatures a degree or two cooler than what is currently forecast.
743 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Low pressure will bring showers to the region this evening. Dry weather will return by mid week under high pressure.
645 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 (Trough Tonight) Cooler, drier air continues to filter into the region behind a cold front that has finally pushed its way to the Red River bringing some much welcome relief to the heat of the last couple of weeks.
Currently - The Keys remain just within the far southwestern fringes of a surface through lower level Atlantic ridge. There is an inverted trough working its way working its way westward across the Bahamas. Short Term Update - The Keys will remain tucked within the range of the ridge while the previously mentioned inverted trough moves into the eastern Florida Straits. The enhanced moisture and confluence associated with the trough is expected to remain well to the east of the island chain through the overnight period. Continued warm conditions expected with lows in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. / Weak ridging to our north and a trough approaching from the east will result in light to gentle northeast to easterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
248 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 [Key Messages] 1) Quiet short term expected with continued below normal temps [Discussion] Vertically stacked low pressure was analyzed over the southern Great Lakes early this morning, with radar imagery depicting scattered rain showers over northeast Illinois into southern Michigan and Indiana. Our area was quiet with some persisting low to mid level clouds associated with the low, but clear skies were not too far away with high pressure being centered over the Plains. Over the next 12-24 hours, look for this high pressure to slowly build east across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Added subsidence with the high and weak northwest flow will provide a pleasant mid-August day, with plenty of sunshine and continued below normal temperatures.
321 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A strongly amplified trough remains over the Lower Ohio Valley. A closed low embedded in the trough that was responsible for yesterday's cold front will continue working east across the southern Great Lakes region, but before it can get far enough away, northwest flow will push trapped moisture between the 700 and 850mb levels towards the CWA. Even with some CAA in place, believe the sunshine will help temperatures climb into the upper 70s with a few places hitting the low 80s, mainly in southern Kentucky.
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Current surface analysis shows broad high pressure centered over the northern and central Plains, with a cool front across southern Canada. Upper level analysis shows ridging from the Pacific NW to the southern Rockies, with low pressure over the Great Lakes. The main forecast concern for the week will be the developing hot conditions as warming trend continues over the next couple of days, with the ridge drifting slowly toward the northern Rockies. Highs will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s across the Plains today, perhaps a bit warmer in a few spots, with 80s over the Black Hills.
1209 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 (Trough Tonight) Cooler, drier air continues to filter into the region behind a cold front that has finally pushed its way to the Red River bringing some much welcome relief to the heat of the last couple of weeks.
235 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A cold front pushes through overnight. Upper level trough moves through today.
Tonight, clear skies will continue with winds helping to keep the temperatures a little warmer than the prior days around 60. With the upper feature though, a weak cold front is still forecasted to move through the area later in the day, changing winds to out of the north.
High pressure over the forecast area will strengthen and continue the warming trend.
430 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 08Z sfc analysis shows a cold front settling south through eastern Kentucky in the wake of the earlier strong to severe storms that mostly missed the area and plagued eastern Tennessee. Temperatures vary from the upper 60s in the north to the lower 70s south. Winds are turning more west as high pressure is now building in from the northwest while dewpoints are still elevated in the mid 60s to lower 70s. They all depict a compact closed low trough moving through the northern Ohio Valley today and tonight.
1234 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) The front has arrived and is currently set up somewhere just south of the I-10 corridor, so if it feels a bit cooler stepping outside today, that's why! With a fairly active night of thunderstorms across the west and lingering showers continuing across SE New Mexico for much of the morning, many spots there haven't warmed above the 70s yet. Northwesterly flow returns and drier air will settle over the area, limiting precipitation chance for Tuesday to only the higher terrain and Big Bend region. The process of ridge building over the west will take the majority of Tuesday while surface winds will remain mostly out of the east, so afternoon temperatures won't have the chance to warm much and should look fairly similar to Monday.
355 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A cold front will push south of the area late tonight.
Moisture is forecast to increase tonight on an east-southeast flow around high pressure over the southern Rockies.
400 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region today with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
209 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 [Key Messages] 1) Quiet short term expected with continued below normal temps [Discussion] Vertically stacked low pressure was analyzed over the southern Great Lakes early this morning, with radar imagery depicting scattered rain showers over northeast Illinois into southern Michigan and Indiana. Our area was quiet with some persisting low to mid level clouds associated with the low, but clear skies were not too far away with high pressure being centered over the Plains. Over the next 12-24 hours, look for this high pressure to slowly build east across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Added subsidence with the high and weak northwest flow will provide a pleasant mid-August day, with plenty of sunshine and continued below normal temperatures.
1240 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) A cold front is currently moving through the Concho Valley and will continue to slowly move south through the afternoon and evening hours. "Cooler" temperatures are occurring behind the front with temperatures across the Big Country in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Expect overnight lows a bit cooler than what we have seen the last several nights, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. This cloud cover could result in temperatures a degree or two cooler than what is currently forecast.
Cooler and drier air will settle into the region by midweek, with seasonable temperatures. Cooler air will work in overnight with lows in the 50s and 60s. The convective activity will be focused along a southward sagging surface trof. Highs on Tuesday will be well below seasonal normals, ranging from the lower 70s north to the upper 70s south.
227 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Abundant, deep layer moisture will stream north over a warm front that was located near the Mason/Dixon line.
These showers/tstms are occurring along/just ahead of a cold front that is also moving into parts of NW/north central AL. The front will likewise move east of the area later this morning, with cooler/drier air spreading into the mid TN Valley from the north in the wake of the frontal passage. This should finally bring some relief from the excessive heat, with afternoon highs struggling to climb past the lower/mid 80s, under clearing skies.
218 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Upper ridge over the west will spread hot air out of the Pacific Northwest and into eastern Montana today.
1110 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Scattered showers are expected tonight through Tuesday as low pressure crosses the region.
151 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Abundant, deep layer moisture will stream north over a warm front that was located near the Mason/Dixon line.
220 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 - Cooler temperatures again today, highs in the mid to upper 70s. Light northwest flow persists at the surface with temperatures settling into the low to mid 60s, on track for the upper 50s for lows later this morning. WV imagery shows our H500 trough continues to churn steadily to the east, centered just east of Lake Michigan, with westerlies prevailing aloft across the northern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. In general, this cloud cover should linger through midday, buoyed by shallow boundary layer moisture, surface dews are still in the 60s along and west of I-35 in northern Missouri, and modest ascent on the trailing edge of the exiting upper low.
High pressure will prevail over the central plains today. Otherwise, winds today will be light and variable underneath the high pressure center.
318 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Isolated to scattered showers are today as low pressure crosses the region.
Latest sfc analysis shows low pressure near Sturgis as it very slowly moves east. High pressure will nose in from the southwest tonight leading to clear skies.
1128 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Abundant, deep layer moisture will stream north over a warm front that was located near the Mason/Dixon line.
219 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 The short term will be defined by positive height anomalies with an upper ridge centered to our west, and dry conditions.
259 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Weak low pressure passing to our south will bring some showers and light rain to the region through this morning, with steadier rain in the south, and more showery conditions in the north.
Early this morning a closed upper low was located across the southern Great Lakes. A broad upper ridge extended from northern Mexico, north-northwest across the continental divide. A lower amplitude upper low was located off the northern CA coast.
1227 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) The cold front that moved through the area early this morning will bring us some of the coolest overnight temperatures we have seen since mid-July. During the overnight hours, winds at the low levels of the atmosphere will veer to the southeast. Temperatures will warm again above or near seasonal averages on Tuesday with an upper ridge beginning to resettle across the southern Rockies.
A strong high pressure ridge will provide the region with mostly dry conditions and near-record heat on Tuesday. The ridge axis will be centered to our east as southeasterly flow aloft draws limited monsoon moisture into far southern Oregon and near the ID/NV border for a slight chance (less than 20 percent) of a late afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
150 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A cold front pushes through overnight. Upper level trough moves through today.
Surface ridging will shift eastward today with surface winds veering from east to southeast and south this afternoon while remaining on the light side. A slight increase in thicknesses along with losing yesterday's upslope flow point to high temperatures 5-7 degrees warmer than yesterday for most locations.
151 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Scattered showers are expected tonight through Tuesday as low pressure crosses the region.
This Evening/Tonight Currently this afternoon, a closed low is moving towards the western Great Lakes with a downstream upper jet of 100+ kts. This cold front, in addition to height falls, will be the main forcing mechanism for the convection later in the day. This would be ahead of additional lift later in the evening ahead of the cold front and after additional upper divergence. This will keep the low- end tornado threat, in addition to damaging winds and isolated large hail. Otherwise, drier and milder conditions will result as high pressure expands from the west. Cooler and drier conditions are expected this week, with a warming trend heading into the weekend.
Discussion: Current meso analysis across the area still shows some minor instability ahead of a cold front currently located across the Cumberland Plateau. Impressive swath of high PWs, around 2", still in place across the east TN Valley just ahead of the cold front. With high PWs, moderate MLCAPEs, moderate shear, frontogentic forcing in the low/mid levels: rainfall rates of 1 to 2" per hour are expected in any stronger storms.
Upper level ridging and high pressure aloft will allow for dry weather to continue for the coming days. As the ridge intensifies, heat and humidity will return and heat headlines are likely to make their return this weekend. (Today through Monday) False fall has arrived in the Mid-South as a result of an unseasonable cold front that crossed the region yesterday. A massive near 600 dam ridge is getting situated over the central plains. As the ridge intensifies, heat and humidity will return late week as temperatures will begin to climb.
1021 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2023 As a low pressure system pushes into the Great Lakes region, a broad upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is over western SD, winds are light, and temperatures are rising into the 70s. Upper ridging will keep weather dry and very warm for much of this week.
Continued ridging over the area this morning contributing to another hot day with highs in the mid/upper 90s and an areawide Heat Advisory for heat indices reaching 108 degrees.
Upper level ridging will allow for dry weather to continue for the coming days. As the ridge intensifies, heat and humidity will return and heat headlines are likely to make their return this weekend. (Today through Monday) False fall has arrived in the Mid-South as a result of an unseasonable cold front that crossed the region yesterday. A massive near 600 dam ridge is getting situated over the central plains. As the ridge intensifies, heat and humidity will return late week as temperatures will begin to climb.
316 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Scattered showers are expected today with highs in the low 70s.
1145 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 An upper low will bring isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to portions of central Illinois the rest of today, then dry weather will be favored through midweek.