Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today-Tonight: An upper level ridge continues to hold across the central US for one more day with a pattern change on the horizon. Additionally, strong southwest winds will accompany the warm temperatures today with gusts of 25 to 30 mph, and occasional gusts exceeding 30 mph west of the Highway 65 corridor. Short term guidance, including the HREF, keep the frontal passage dry through tonight as the cold front sinks south of the area. Thursday: Cooler temperatures into Thursday behind the frontal passage with post frontal rain chances (20-50%) across southern Missouri. Recent trends in guidance keep the highest rain chances across south central Missouri through the afternoon and evening. Locations north of the Highway 60 corridor could see little to no rain through Thursday night.
-Much cooler conditions arrive by tonight & tomorrow, with dry weather continuing into the weekend.
The ridge axis slides farther east, allowing surface winds to veer to more of a ESE direction into the weekend, bringing slightly more moisture and warmer air back into the area.
Overview: Water vapor satellite imagery/500mb heights/lightning highlight a ridge over the southeast U. with a broad trough from the Northern Plains southwest toward Utah and southern California with a ridge off the West Coast. In-between, where the low level moisture remained and lift is weak, there is areas of fog and some patchy drizzle. Temperatures remain seasonable Thursday: Through Thursday, the 500mb trough will continue to push southward, with a lobe of energy and a cold front pushing through the area this evening. The nose of the low level jet moves into the region this evening with the cold front. Looking ahead: High pressure continues to build across the Northern Plains late this week into the weekend leading to mostly dry, seasonable conditions.
1129 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 Morning fog and much cooler in central Kansas today. The greatest impact from reduced visibility in areas of dense fog are expected to translate along and just behind the front thru mid-morning, from the I-70 corridor to roughly just south of the highway 50 corridor. Much cooler and drier air will advect over the entire area tonight and Thursday with daytime highs below climo and generally just below 60F.
1113 AM PST Wed Nov 8 2023 Cool, dry conditions are forecast over Central California through the weekend as a modest ridge pattern of high pressure builds overhead. Cool and dry days are forecast to continue through the next few days as a modest ridge of high pressure aloft builds. Afternoon highs trend upward a few degrees through the weekend as well due to the mild ridging pattern aloft.
The rule today will be cooler following the passage of a Pacific Cold Front.
1219 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper trough extending from Manitoba to California, leaving southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Despite downslope warming today, thicknesses come down w/the approaching trough, and highs should come a degree or so cooler than yesterday, w/increasing high clouds to help mitigate things. Tonight, the much-advertised cold front arrives, w/the latest NAM pegging fropa at KMAF ~ 06Z. Forecast soundings show minimal instability w/the front, but enough for rain showers beginning around 06Z and even a little thunder over the lower Trans Pecos. Showers/drizzle will increase across the area, mainly south with the front, and as the upper trough approaches.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) West-southwest flow is in place throughout the column across the region this afternoon with an upper trough digging into the Southwest US. A disturbance rounding the subtropical high will get picked up by the upper trough as it swings trough the Southwest over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, a cold front has been pushing into the TX Panhandle on the heels of a trough moving through the Great Lakes. While this front won't be strong enough to bring freezing temperatures into the region, a whopping 35-40 degree temperature decrease will occur between today and tomorrow's highs.
The highest chances will be for east coast areas where the strongest coastal convergence occurs, but that region will still not see PoPs over 20%, which will be the highest over all of South Florida. The only other item to note is that there will be late night and early morning fog potential as the near-surface inversion forms and we start to see the uptick in low level moisture as nocturnal cooling hits the low point of the night.
(Rest of This Afternoon Through Tonight) A cold front will continue to push through eastern OK and northwest AR through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight. The overall instability remains very weak behind the cold front and will keep thunder probabilities less than 20% through Thursday night.
* Possible light showers with the cold frontal passage tonight * Trending drier Thursday and rains shifted further south for Thursday night.
This front exits north tonight as a warm front, followed by a cold front pushing in from the west Thursday.
Gusty north to northwest winds have overtaken the local forecast area behind a modified Canadian cold front.
217 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 * Slightly cooler temps next few days but still close to seasonal normals. At the surface, cold front extends from north-central MO through far southeast KS and into western OK. Fog burned off later this morning with low clouds still making their way south across the forecast area as cooler air continues to filter south. Northwest flow aloft will then setup by Sun with upper ridging moving-in for the start of the work week.
(This evening through Thursday) The main feature in the short term is a cold front moving southeast across the forecast area. Ahead of the front, southwest winds are bringing in dry air resulting in RH values in the lower teens across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas; the main impact being elevated RFTIs. This will clear as the front moves through bringing cooler air behind it. Area- wide, afternoon highs tomorrow will be in the 50s (about 15-30 degrees cooler than today).
The east side will remain below freezing, with temperatures dropping into the mid-teens to low- twenties. The temperatures here will trend towards freezing tonight, with a 90% chance in the Illinois Valley and 40% chance in the Rogue Valley. The impact of this would be the presence of freezing fog during commute hours, which could increase the potential for hazardous driving conditions. Conditions will improve later today as high pressure begins to build over the region. Stable conditions have arrived as an upper level ridge has started to move over the area.
1125 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) On Wednesday, upper lvl ridging over Arkansas in cohesion with an approaching sfc cold front from the west and a sfc area of high pressure located along the Gulf Coast region of the CONUS will continue to usher in brisk southerly winds into the CWA. Expect brisk conditions with gusty winds, much warmer than normal temperatures, and partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. On Wednesday Night into Thursday Night, a cold front will approach the Natural State from the northwest.
It is a comfortable afternoon across the Florida Keys, with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the lower 70s. Only a few minuscule showers have been able to develop along a boundary just south of the Lower Keys, but have remained very weak due to the drier air and stout subsidence inversion that was sampled by this morning's sounding. A benign week of weather is forecast for the Florida Keys as ridging is on tap to dominate the Keys sensible weather through the weekend. As the low-level ridge shifts eastward into the western Atlantic over the next few days, steering flow will gradually shift to the southeast and shallow undulations of moisture may ride its southwestern periphery and bring a slight chance of rain to the forecast area.
(This evening through Thursday night) A northwest to southeast oriented cold front is moving through the area this afternoon. Overnight lows will cool off into the 30's, and some lower 40's in the southeast, but none are expected to get below freezing tonight. This trough will bring a surge of cloud cover across the entire CWA.
With the light winds and clearing cloud cover, areas generally north of I-70 may cool close to the dewpoints allowing for low temperatures in the low to mid 20's. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecasted to be fairly similar to today with highs in the 50's and 60's with high surface pressure over the area and the southerly portion of the upper trough forecasted to remain over the Desert Southwest.
1201 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 (Today and tonight) The combination of a strong low level thermal ridge and southwest flow will result in hot temperatures across the area for one more day. A cold front will move south across the area tonight and exit the area Thursday morning.
Cooler temperatures begin to move into the area behind a front tonght.
The low stratus clouds begin to break down from west to east starting midnight tonight, allowing inland temperatures to fall to the mid 30s for an overnight low. Lakeshore areas remain slightly warmer (40 degree low on the Lake Michigan shoreline). Sheppard (Issued 300 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023) Thursday night through Wednesday: Low pressure will continue to exit east into Ontario Thursday night, with a sprawling area of high pressure sinking south through the Plains and Midwest.
- Cooler temperatures, near normal, in the 50s Thursday.
- Cooler, but more seasonal temperatures are forecast to end the week. This will work to advect into the area a cooler, drier airmass. There is a 15% for sprinkles as the axis of the upper level trough pivots across the northern Plains. Overnight lows tomorrow morning will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler and most locations will drop below freezing. The persistent northwesterly flow will continue to advect in cooler, drier air. High temperatures will be in the 50s and dewpoint temperatures will drop into the low 20s.
1244 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023 A warm front lifts northward today into the southern portion of the Great Lakes. High temperatures will be quite varied through the region, ranging from the lower 50s in south central Lower Michigan to the middle 70s over central Indiana. Northern stream trough in southern Manitoba to undergo deepening as stronger Alberta system is ingested and tracks into the Arrowhead of Minnesota/Western Lake Superior by 12 UTC Thursday. Better chances for showers, possible thunderstorms, near triple point and along trailing cold front this evening/early tonight with nominal 200-400 J/kg MUCAPE. Increasing insolation to partially offset strong post frontal cold air advection Thursday with highs close to normal, in the lower/middle 50s.
345 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023 A warm front will move north and bring late day temperatures from central to southern Indiana near 80 to 85. Much cooler air will persist over Lower Michigan with temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Showers accompanied by a rumble of thunder can be expected into early tonight with the passage of a cold front. Record high warmth was spreading north associated with a warm front. Readings over northern Indiana will continue to warm into the evening ahead of a cold front when the high temperature for the day is likely to occur. Isolated storms are possible early tonight ahead of a cold front, but severe weather is not expected given limited moisture and very limited instability.
Wind gradient ahead of the approaching ridge will bring 15-25 mph gust potential to the area this afternoon. The arrival of the ridge will also usher in a round of CAA and below normal temperatures for the area.
However, a second surface based cold front will sweep through the area this afternoon. The lowering dew points and warmer temperatures will lower relative humidity (RH) down to 40-50%. Think lows will bottom out around freezing. Dew points will continue to lower through the day and may fall into the low 20s. Despite relatively cooler high temperatures, RH values will lower to the 20s and 30s, nearing red flag criteria.
Regardless if records are met or not, highs remain about 10-15 degrees above climatological averages topping out in the high 70s to low 80s later this afternoon. The high pressure allowing us one more warm dry day continues to propagate east across the FL peninsula through the evening and overnight. While the front will move through in the short term forecast, pre frontal clouds will build from the west overnight leading to overnight lows about 5 degrees warmer than last night from the high 50s to mid 60s.
132 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023 Rain chances tonight and Thursday morning with crossing low pressure will be followed by dry and seasonably cool conditions through the weekend. Upper ridging transitioning across the region will maintain dry conditions the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. strong and The associated cold front will quickly cross the region Thursday morning. Dry conditions return by the afternoon with the front east of the ridges. A few lingering showers over the southeast ridges, but these too will end quickly as the front presses southeastward into northern Virginia. Strong cold advection in the wake of the cold front will result in a downward trend in temperatures through the day.
1136 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 (The rest of today ) A dry line is entering the northwest part of our forecast area at this time, and will be closely followed by a cold front this afternoon and evening.
445 PM MST Wed Nov 8 2023 Aviation Section Updated Upper level ridging will begin to build into the Northern Rockies tonight and tomorrow, bringing quiet weather to the area for Thursday.
311 PM MST Wed Nov 8 2023 - Light to moderate snow over the higher elevations tonight with travel impacts anticipated through early Thursday morning.
547 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 Deep high pressure will continue to be the story in the near term, keeping warm and dry conditions in place for now. This same high pressure is helping to promote subtle moist return flow and should continue to gradually moisten the column through Thursday. The combination of high pressure and increased moisture has led to dense fog events in recent mornings, and this trend should continue Thursday morning in southeastern areas, as HREF probabilities of visibilities half mile or less are around 40%. Warm temperatures will continue Thursday, especially across central and southern areas ahead of a surface cold front. Rain chances will increase from NW to SE as the surface cold front pushes southeastward across the area.
517 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 * Slightly cooler temps next few days but still close to seasonal normals. At the surface, cold front extends from north-central MO through far southeast KS and into western OK. Fog burned off later this morning with low clouds still making their way south across the forecast area as cooler air continues to filter south. Northwest flow aloft will then setup by Sun with upper ridging moving-in for the start of the work week.
912 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023 Scattered showers are expected late tonight/Thursday with a cold front.
557 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023 Scattered showers are expected late tonight/Thursday with a cold front.
Upper level low finally moves east of the region this evening, with high pressure, clear skies, and cold overnight lows setting in. Relatively quiet conditions and unimpactful weather expected as the cold front clears the region to the southeast along with the mid-level trough. Upper levels lag somewhat with the axis of the trough at 200 mb still overhead at this hour, and some lingering instability is evident from very limited snow shower activity over terrain in the Wasatch Back.
Cooler temperatures begin to move into the area behind a front tonight.
(This evening through Thursday Night) The low stratus from this morning has finally starting to lift across the region. This has played a major role in today's temps as locations underneath the low clouds have mostly remained in the 70s today, while the remainder of the region has climbed into the 80s. An upper trough and associated cold front will move through the region on Thursday, bringing widespread rain chances. Behind the front, much cooler temperatures will push into the region along with continued widespread rain chances.
650 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023 Rain chances tonight and Thursday morning with crossing low pressure will be followed by dry and seasonably cool conditions through the weekend. Temperatures continue to run multiple degrees above hi-res guidance as strong warm advection ramps up ahead of the lifting warm front. Warming will persist in the warm sector overnight until the onset of rain and cold frontal passage near sunrise. strong and The associated cold front will quickly cross the region Thursday morning. Dry conditions return by the afternoon with the front east of the ridges. A few lingering showers over the southeast ridges, but these too will end quickly as the front presses southeastward into northern Virginia.
526 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 A cold front will cross the region tomorrow ending the rain free and record warmth weather pattern.
A very minor area of high pressure and offshore flow has allowed for clear, warm, and dry weather today even along the coast.
The the large area of high pressure over the intermountain west will only slowly build into our western counties. The 500mb trough will sink south across the area during the day Thursday.
Cool, dry conditions are forecast over Central California through the weekend as a modest ridge pattern of high pressure builds overhead. Cool and dry days are forecast to continue through the next few days as a modest ridge of high pressure aloft builds. Afternoon highs trend upward a few degrees through the weekend as well due to the mild ridging pattern aloft.
458 PM MST Wed Nov 8 2023 - Light to moderate snow over the higher elevations tonight with travel impacts anticipated through early Thursday morning.
509 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 (This evening through Thursday Night) The low stratus from this morning has finally starting to lift across the region. This has played a major role in today's temps as locations underneath the low clouds have mostly remained in the 70s today, while the remainder of the region has climbed into the 80s. An upper trough and associated cold front will move through the region on Thursday, bringing widespread rain chances. Behind the front, much cooler temperatures will push into the region along with continued widespread rain chances.
* Possible light showers with the cold frontal passage tonight.
The overall instability remains very weak behind the cold front and will keep thunder probabilities less than 20% through Thursday night.
Warmer overnight lows will hang on tonight for much of the southern half of our CWA, thanks to cloud cover and a washed out cold front. Meanwhile, northeast Utah, northwest Colorado, and the high country along the Continental Divide will see temperatures drop under mostly clear skies tonight.
Compared to yesterday at 2:30 pm, Tucson International Airport is roughly 10 degrees cooler than yesterday at the same time. This is due to the incoming trough that is bringing some cold air advection. Currently the upper level trough axis is stretching from southern Utah through southern California and will pass through southeastern Arizona over the next 24 to 36 hours.
This is brought on by transient ridging aloft building in.
550 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023 Rain chances tonight and Thursday morning with crossing low pressure will be followed by dry and seasonably cool conditions through the weekend. Temperatures continue to run multiple degrees above hi-res guidance as strong warm advection ramps up ahead of the lifting warm front. Warming will persist in the warm sector overnight until the onset of rain and cold frontal passage near sunrise. strong and The associated cold front will quickly cross the region Thursday morning. Dry conditions return by the afternoon with the front east of the ridges. A few lingering showers over the southeast ridges, but these too will end quickly as the front presses southeastward into northern Virginia.
537 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 (Rest of This Afternoon Through Tonight) A cold front will continue to push through eastern OK and northwest AR through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight. The overall instability remains very weak behind the cold front and will keep thunder probabilities less than 20% through Thursday night.
536 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 (This evening through Thursday) The main feature in the short term is a cold front moving southeast across the forecast area. Ahead of the front, southwest winds are bringing in dry air resulting in RH values in the lower teens across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas; the main impact being elevated RFTIs. This will clear as the front moves through bringing cooler air behind it. Area- wide, afternoon highs tomorrow will be in the 50s (about 15-30 degrees cooler than today).
High pressure is holding over the area this evening, with mostly clear skies forecast to continue overnight.
As such, look for another warm afternoon with temperature warming into the upper 50s along the immediate coast, 60s inland, with a few spots peaking in the lower 70s.
The current orientation of the front has developed a north-south temperature gradient across the area with low to mid-50s north of the front while areas to south sit in the low to mid-70s. As the low moves into Indiana this evening, the warm front is expected to get shoved back southward by the 850 mb front which will gradually taper showers from northwest to southeast through the mid to late evening hours (~10 PM to midnight CST). Winds will begin to increase in the wake of the cold front as the pressure gradient rapidly tightens (6 to 8 mb pressure rise per 6 hr) overnight into Thursday morning.
539 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) West-southwest flow is in place throughout the column across the region this afternoon with an upper trough digging into the Southwest US. A disturbance rounding the subtropical high will get picked up by the upper trough as it swings trough the Southwest over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, a cold front has been pushing into the TX Panhandle on the heels of a trough moving through the Great Lakes. While this front won't be strong enough to bring freezing temperatures into the region, a whopping 35-40 degree temperature decrease will occur between today and tomorrow's highs.
510 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Make sure to enjoy the warmer temperatures late this afternoon and tonight, as they will come to an end with the onset of an approaching cold front from the north tonight. Overnight tonight, winds will become breezy again and shift to the north as the cold front tracks through the area into Thursday morning. In the wake of this cold front, rain showers will begin to track into the area Thursday morning and become widespread going into Thursday afternoon. Temperatures overnight tonight are expected to range in the lower 50s to lower 60s, which will also coincide with Thursday's high temperatures for the day.
521 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) A northwest to southeast oriented cold front is moving through the area this afternoon. Overnight lows will cool off into the 30's, and some lower 40's in the southeast, but none are expected to get below freezing tonight. This trough will bring a surge of cloud cover across the entire CWA.
249 PM MST Wed Nov 8 2023 Upper level ridging will begin to build into the Northern Rockies tonight and tomorrow, bringing quiet weather to the area for Thursday.
858 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 Current mesoanalysis shows the cold front oriented SW-NE through southern Oklahoma, Missouri, and Illinois.