Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today and tonight) Flow aloft has gradually begun backing early this morning ahead of an amplifying longwave trough over the western CONUS. However, the negatives still look to outweigh the positives given fairly significant capping and lingering subsidence associated with continuing upper level ridging over the Rio Grande Valley, with hi- res guidance currently appearing too aggressive regarding convective coverage late this afternoon through this evening.
The next couple of days will be similar to each other with highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.
A low pressure system will move towards the area tonight, then just off the southern Oregon coast Friday morning. A warm front approaching the coast will move onshore tonight. Isolated showers this evening along the coast/west of I-5 will become more widespread overnight into Friday, perhaps evolving into steadier rain in some areas as an area of low pressure moves onshore to the south. The associated upper trough will move in overhead Friday afternoon and night bringing widespread showers. Overall, Friday, expect a mix of MVFR/VFR with the highest likelihood of MVFR in showers/areas of rain. A very broad trough is present over western N. The trough will deepen and push through the area into early Saturday. The upper trough continues to move inland through Saturday, allowing showers to continue over the south Oregon Cascades, in N.
1021 PM MDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Upper Midwest with large upper trof over the western CONUS. At the surface, cold front has moved into central SD and is through all but Tripp county in our forecast area.
1214 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Upper cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to move off to the northeast this morning. Ridging over the nations mid section will build eastward and over the region through the remainder of the period, keeping rain chances at bay. Very warm and dry conditions will continue through the period as the upper ridge dominates.
220 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 High pressure remains wedged against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians.
All in all, things look fairly quiet today with ridging over the area. An upper level low will make a closer approach to the area for Saturday.
- Gradual warmup through Saturday A low level thermal trough will be in place today. This, combined with limited sunshine will likely lead to max temperatures struggling to go much higher than the lower 70s. That changes on Saturday as the area will see a greater amount of sunshine and the low level thermal trough starts to shift slowly east.
(Today through Saturday) Closed 500 mb low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will gradually move east and be replaced by a mid-level ridge of high pressure that will build over the BRO CWFA in the wake of the low. However, the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will exist over the lower Texas coastal waters, where moisture availability will be best.
Discussion: Currently, an upper level trough over the eastern Great Lakes region continues to slowly lift northeastward as flow aloft transitions to a more nwly direction.
1240 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (This evening through Friday night) Mid level moisture will increase across the northern CWA overnight in association with a short wave trough moving out of New Mexico. Have left the forecast dry for Friday, but would not be surprised to see some isolated showers or thunderstorms Friday night as mid level moisture increases and the low level jet kicks in.
(Today) Another warm/ hot and dry day is in store with above average temperatures thanks to continued ridging across central CONUS.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Upper level high pressure remains in charge over the region today and keeps afternoon temperatures well into the 90s for most. Lows tonight settle into the mid to upper 60s for most with the higher elevations sinking into the 50s. Saturday trends cooler as the upper level ridge breaks down somewhat and shifts to the east with a large upper level trough taking hold of the Western US.
1206 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be a touch warmer than yesterday as the upper-level ridge strengthens slightly over our region. Thunderstorm chances are expected to be meager under the building ridge and only a few thunderstorms are expected around the higher elevations. Heading into Friday, the nearly stationary western trough begins to dig across California. At the same time, the ridge over the southern Great Plains begins to amplify.
1057 PM MDT Thu Sep 28 2023 A cold front stalled over Wyoming is responsible for cooler temperatures today, most notably across the northern half of the forecast area. By Saturday afternoon, a trough will deepen across the western Great Basin, causing southerly flow to increase across Wyoming.
(Today through Saturday) Lower to mid level ridging today relents on Saturday to allow for a surge of deeper moisture leading to well above seasonal normal moisture levels (PWs).
Today, that system will begin deepening along the Pacific coast, with deep-layer flow turning southwesterly sending high temps into the upper 60s to low 70s (so a few degrees warmer than yesterday). Meanwhile, showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two will begin working into the region as the deepening closed low slides east into Nevada, with the best coverage roughly west of a line from about Leadore, to Arco, to Malta.
(Today and tonight) Today will be a near carbon copy of yesterday, with upper ridging suppressing shower and thunderstorm development. Lee trough to the west will otherwise will bring some gusty south winds mid morning through the afternoon across northern and western sections. Highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 90s.
2)More showers and warmer temperatures to start the weekend Satellite imagery shows cirrus streaming to the NE across our area this morning, with some lingering stratus with the nearly stalled frontal zone.
1145 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over Quebec. with low level ridging still holding over much of Northern Michigan. Some low clouds do remain across portions of our southern CWA in the vcnty of the meandering upper low that is trying to push eastward away from our state. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid/upper level low pressure slowly moving east across southeast lower Michigan this afternoon, with attendant much more diffused surface response detached well off to its south. A few degrees cooler tonight, with lows ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Short wave ridging builds in for Friday into Friday night leading to precipitation free conditions. Clouds then increase during the day on Saturday as a weak trough approaches from the north.
1123 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 There is a mid level low pressure system over Michigan/Ohio River Valley and a trough over western Canada to Baja. Highlights: 1) Above normal temperatures persist and likely dry 2) Breezy with elevated fire danger As mentioned in the previous discussion, moisture advection could prompt some sprinkles or showers Friday morning combined with a slight shift of the low level jet and a subtle short wave over southeast Colorado/southwest Kansas.
(Today and tonight) An upper trough stretching from the Great Lakes southward into the Tennessee Valley will continue moving eastward over the next 24 hours with weak upper troughing remaining along the Gulf coast. At the surface, high pressure north of the area will maintain a relatively dry northeast surface flow across the area. Elsewhere, the atmosphere is expected to remain too dry for convection, despite the weak upper troughing along the Gulf coast. Highs are expected to range from the low to mid 80s across the area with overnight lows mainly in the 60s, except near 70 along the coast.
As northwest Oklahoma remains near the better southwest flow around western trough we may see a repeat of late night convection impact northwest Oklahoma.
The persistent and slow moving upper low will finally traverse the region today. The best large scale ascension will rest right along the axis of the low, which will cross the area this morning.
The next 36 hours will see a deepening trof over the western states with flow aloft backing to the south thru the central and northern Rockies. Today will be dry, but there is a 20-30% chance of brief rain showers over our west and north tonight in response to a warm frontal passage. Behind tonight's warm front, 700mb temps rise to near an anomalously warm +11C over our east. On Saturday, western areas should be slightly cooler as winds shift to the N-NE, but temps will likely reach the low-mid 80s from Broadus to Miles City (along thermal trof axis).
- Heat Indices 105-109 along the Coastal Bend - Patchy fog possible Saturday morning along the Victoria Crossroads/Coastal Plains Ridging over the plains will progress eastward over the Mississippi River Valley then stall due to a blocking low just off the Atlantic Coast. An inverted trough in the southwestern Gulf will help to increase moisture this weekend and increase storm shower and thunderstorm chances for Saturday with PWAT's progged to increase to around 1.
155 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 High pressure remains wedged against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians.
WARMING UP INTO THE WEEKEND: A synoptic pattern change is afoot with upper-level ridging building into the Upper Midwest into the Weekend.
(Today through Saturday) Upper level ridging will build across the Lower Mississippi River Valley today and extend northward through the Ohio River Valley by Saturday.
(Today through Saturday Night) High pressure centered across the central/eastern CONUS will continue to dominate the weather across most of Southeast TX today and Saturday. The main weather maker will be a trough/weak easterly wave over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This trough is progged to move westward into the Upper TX coast and along the coastal counties today and should remain over the region through Saturday evening; resulting in elevated rain and storm chances. Most of this activity should remain along the coast with the highest chances offshore.
310 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (Today through Saturday) With high pressure lingering at the surface and ridging moving into place in the mid-levels, expect a fairly un-eventful next day or two weather-wise. Some semblance of weak wedging is likely to stick around in the near term (and potentially longer) given favorable positioning of high pressure across New England/southeastern Canada. Thanks to a drier column associated with strengthening ridging aloft, sensible effects of this will be limited (minimal cloud cover and almost no impacts on daily highs), and will primarily be reflected in winds steadily out of the northeast.
With upper ridging building back into the Dakotas on Saturday, temperatures will climb well above normal once any fog dissipates.
A weak area of low pressure in the mid levels near the SE TX/SW LA Coast has helped provide some additional mid and high level clouds through this evening, but with the expected weakening of this system, clouds will slowly dissipate through the overnight hours. With little to no change in the synoptic pattern, high temperatures will be nearly identical to today, reaching into the low to mid 90s across SE OK and SW AR and into the mid to upper 90s across E TX and NW LA. Aside from some thinning cirrus extending from the Lower Toledo Bend Country NE into NCntrl LA near a weak trough axis aloft, SKC will prevail overnight through much of the morning Friday.
312 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Slow moving mid/upper trough that has led to repeated dreary days finally starts to vacate the central Great Lakes today leaving behind ample low-level moisture in its wake. Question remains on how well clouds/low level moisture mixes out by this evening when central CONUS upper ridging expands over southern lower MI following the departure of the trough. Beyond the morning fog concerns, generally quiet, warmer weather takes hold through the coming weekend and into the start of the next work week. The aforementioned central CONUS ridge undergoes downstream amplification in response to a robust upper trough digging across the western CONUS this weekend.
Much deeper moisture over the coastal waters combined with a weak inverted trof pushing across the central gulf will maintain scattered to widespread storms offshore through the weekend. Meanwhile an upper trof progressing eastward across the Great Lakes will push a dry low level boundary through the region late Friday into early Saturday.
Upper pattern this morning features ridging sitting squarely over the forecast area. Meanwhile, low pressure will be moving down the west coast increasing the amplitude of the ridge and resulting in a continuation of the very warm and dry conditions that have been in place of late.
(Today through Saturday) The upper level low pressure system that brought good coverage of showers and storms to the north half of our area yesterday will be moving out today. It will be replaced by a dry ridge that will cover much of the eastern U. As noted in yesterday's discussion, the NBM does not do well with dew points in dry ridge regimes, so I blended some raw data and MOS guidance to bring down dew points, especially in the afternoon hours when deep vertical mixing will occur. (Saturday Night through next Friday) A dry ridge will be in control of our weather for several days- at least through midweek. The ridge will bring sunny days and mainly clear nights. Temperatures through midweek will continue to be warmer than normal, especially high temps.
This pretty much was a blend of the warmer MAV and the cooler MET guidance values for highs both days.
Otherwise, high pressure layered across the mid/southern Atlantic states, coupled with an upper ridge pattern building into the SE region out of the west, will provide for a seasonably warm Fri.
Air mass behind the front is not overly cool, so only expecting a few degrees setback on Friday as highs drop back into the low to mid 70s for most areas. Saturday morning a strong ridge continues to move into the region as the low pressure center moves off to the east.
Otherwise, rest of the forecast remains the same as the area transitions into being dominated by high pressure aloft and at the surface. Discussion: Upper level low is centered across the Great Lakes region this afternoon with the Ohio and Tennessee Valley within cyclonic flow. The upper trough will continue to move east into the overnight hours. Heights increase on Friday as the upper trough advances into the northeast with ridging just to the west. High pressure will remain settled throughout the region keeping dry weather conditions across the area.
The ridge zone is also showing signs of LIFR ceiling becoming more of a prevailing condition along with a period of LIFR fog possible as nocturnal cooling bottoms toward sunrise.
335 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 A low pressure system passing to our south will bring cloudy but mostly dry conditions to much of North Country today, with a few showers possible across southern Vermont. High temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler east of the Green Mountains, with temperatures only in the 60s. The St Lawrence valley and Champlain valley should be the warm spots with highs reaching the low 70s. Upper ridging builds in on Saturday, leading to the return of sunshine.
Today will be a clear and quiet day with high temperatures in the low 90s in the west to the high 80s in the east. The fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise with mostly sunny and very warm conditions to follow as high pressure remains in control of our weather.
306 AM MDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Current surface analysis shows cool front east and south of the forecast area, with weak high pressure to the north. Upper level analysis shows southwesterly flow across the region, with broad trough across southwest Canada and the Pacific NW. Warmer air will build into the region over the weekend as negatively tilted ridge builds back over the Plains, ahead of digging trough across the western US.
611 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (Today and tonight) Today will be a near carbon copy of yesterday, with upper ridging suppressing shower and thunderstorm development. Lee trough to the west will otherwise will bring some gusty south winds mid morning through the afternoon across northern and western sections. Highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 90s.
743 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 A low pressure system passing to our south will bring cloudy but mostly dry conditions to much of North Country today, with a few showers possible across southern Vermont. High temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler east of the Green Mountains, with temperatures only in the 60s. The St Lawrence valley and Champlain valley should be the warm spots with highs reaching the low 70s. Upper ridging builds in on Saturday, leading to the return of sunshine.
Currently, southwest flow aloft as a long wave trough remains over the western Northern Hemisphere.
This system will bring much cooler for the Upper Midwest late week.
640 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 High pressure remains wedged against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians.
618 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Upper level high pressure remains in charge over the region today and keeps afternoon temperatures well into the 90s for most. Lows tonight settle into the mid to upper 60s for most with the higher elevations sinking into the 50s. Saturday trends cooler as the upper level ridge breaks down somewhat and shifts to the east with a large upper level trough taking hold of the Western US.
651 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring rain, heavy at times, to parts of Northeast PA and Central NY today. The Poconos and Catskills will have the highest chance for heavy rain.
A weak weather disturbance moving through a deep trough of low pressure will bring another day of scattered showers primarily north of the I-90 corridor. A southerly flow from a closed mid level low across the Great Basin will bring warmer temperatures and higher snow levels.
Slow moving mid/upper trough that has led to repeated dreary days finally starts to vacate the central Great Lakes today leaving behind ample low-level moisture in its wake. Question remains on how well clouds/low level moisture mixes out by this evening when central CONUS upper ridging expands over southern lower MI following the departure of the trough. Beyond the morning fog concerns, generally quiet, warmer weather takes hold through the coming weekend and into the start of the next work week. The aforementioned central CONUS ridge undergoes downstream amplification in response to a robust upper trough digging across the western CONUS this weekend.
641 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (Today through Saturday) Upper level ridging will build across the Lower Mississippi River Valley today and extend northward through the Ohio River Valley by Saturday.
625 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (Today) Another warm/ hot and dry day is in store with above average temperatures thanks to continued ridging across central CONUS.
508 AM MDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Current surface analysis shows cool front east and south of the forecast area, with weak high pressure to the north. Upper level analysis shows southwesterly flow across the region, with broad trough across southwest Canada and the Pacific NW. Warmer air will build into the region over the weekend as negatively tilted ridge builds back over the Plains, ahead of digging trough across the western US.
431 AM MDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Broad upper trough across the western states will amplify and dig southward over the weekend, before developing into a closed low in the intermountain region. The digging trough will transport moisture northward into the state, for increasing chances of rain as the weekend progresses. With the digging trough, lee-side cyclogenesis will begin over Wyoming. An inverted trough extends north into eastern Montana on Saturday, with a tightening pressure gradient and the potential to meet Lake Wind criteria.
604 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Water vapor imagery early this morning was showing a pronounced upper ridge centered over Missouri that the HREF continues to build over the Midwest the next 36 hours. This front is forecast to move slightly to the northeast through tomorrow, but subsidence underneath the upper ridge and weak low level forcing will keep our weather dry.
An approaching low pressure system is expected to bring showers back to northern California and southern Oregon this morning. For today, the highest rainfall amounts are expected over areas of Curry, Coos, and Douglas counties with 0. Precipitation will linger through early Saturday evening, with the highest amounts shifted over Siskiyou, Modoc, and Lake counties.
927 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring rain, heavy at times, to parts of Northeast PA and Central NY today. The Poconos and Catskills will have the highest chance for heavy rain.
538 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 High pressure remains wedged against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians.
529 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 High pressure remains wedged against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians.
620 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (Today through Saturday) Lower to mid level ridging today relents on Saturday to allow for a surge of deeper moisture leading to well above seasonal normal moisture levels (PWs).
531 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (Today through Saturday) Closed 500 mb low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will gradually move east and be replaced by a mid-level ridge of high pressure that will build over the BRO CWFA in the wake of the low. However, the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will exist over the lower Texas coastal waters, where moisture availability will be best.
Highs today will be in the low to mid seventies, coolest east of US131 where the abundant cloud cover holds on the longest. - Gradual warmup through Saturday A low level thermal trough will be in place today. This, combined with limited sunshine will likely lead to max temperatures struggling to go much higher than the lower 70s. That changes on Saturday as the area will see a greater amount of sunshine and the low level thermal trough starts to shift slowly east.
523 AM MDT Fri Sep 29 2023 The trough over the Pacific Northwest looks to develop deeper down the west coast, possibly in the process of dropping a closed low over the Great Basin in the next few days, and not advance. Flow aloft over Colorado should remain moderate while turning more southerly ahead of that trough. There might be a little disturbance aloft coming around the trough, to little effect other than a bit of wind in the high country. A weak front today will bring temperatures down a few degrees as well but it will still be seasonally warm, about 5 to 10 F warmer than normal just about everywhere. Strong upper low will slowly track eastward across California and the Great Basin this weekend.
647 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 (Today through Saturday) The upper level low pressure system that brought good coverage of showers and storms to the north half of our area yesterday will be moving out today. It will be replaced by a dry ridge that will cover much of the eastern U. As noted in yesterday's discussion, the NBM does not do well with dew points in dry ridge regimes, so I blended some raw data and MOS guidance to bring down dew points, especially in the afternoon hours when deep vertical mixing will occur. (Saturday Night through next Friday) A dry ridge will be in control of our weather for several days- at least through midweek. The ridge will bring sunny days and mainly clear nights. Temperatures through midweek will continue to be warmer than normal, especially high temps.
Highs today are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s however should the current overcast conditions persist longer than anticipated, highs could be a couple degree cooler closer to the low to mid 80s.