Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
233 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Key messages: 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms 2) Still warm today 3) Back door cold front arrives later today Details: Today: Back door cold front currently from central MN to central lower MI will gradually push southwest into our northern counties later today. This occurring as the Omega Block shifts west into the Plains, along with the deep trough in the northeast United States. Northeast winds will bring cooler temperatures into the area with lows bottoming out in the mid 50s northeast, to the lower 60s southwest.
Overall pattern remains the same with strong upper level low parked over northern New England with another upper level low over southern California. This keeps the Plains in a ridge over the next several days. Potent wave will round the upper level low on Wednesday which will bring a back door cold front into the area.
EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 As an upper lows meanders near the New England coast, weak cold front will settle south across the area tonight, followed by a slightly stronger cold front on Wednesday. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with some mid 50s in the typically cooler piedmont locations. A mid/upper-level cyclone will meander near the Northeast coast and maintain a broad field of cyclonic, generally nwly flow across the middle Atlantic through mid-week. The cold front passing through the area early Tuesday will mainly just be a dry front, as low-level thicknesses are actually at or above today's values with westerly flow. Lows will again be relatively mild ahead of another cold front dropping through the Appalachians on Wednesday.
An area of weak high pressure will linger over the Ozarks today, but will help suppress the potential for showers and storms to far southwestern Missouri. With high pressure remaining over the region, skies should remain clear overnight allowing temperatures to cool into the upper 50s to lower 60s. The low in the eastern CONUS is expected to deepen pushing cooler air into the Ozarks from the northeast.
Lows tonight will be near normal, with mid 50s in the east and mid 60s in the west as a cooler and drier airmass begins to push in from the east. The upper air Omega blocking pattern will begin to break down midweek as the low on the east coast deepens and works with the high pressure over the central continent to push cooler air south into the midwest. A backdoor cold front is expected to move through from the northeast Wednesday night, knocking our daytime high temperatures down a few degrees to near normal and bringing the potential for some showers, especially in the east. Lows will be several degrees cooler, in the mid-80s for most of the area.
358 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A cold front will move south from the Great Lakes through the Mid Atlantic region tonight and Wednesday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
(Today through Wednesday night) Upper level trough over the CA coast will continue to linger for the early to mid part of the week. In general this pattern doesn't favor precipitation over the Panhandles, but given the high moisture content at the surface, we can heat up and get popcorn thunderstorms that will not last long, but will also have very little storm motion, so brief periods of moderate to heavy rain. As we move into Wednesday the upper trough over the west will start to take a negative tilt and as a much deeper trough over the northeast CONUS takes a very strong positive tilt.
312 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A moisture starved cold front moves through today, followed by an upper level disturbance Wednesday.
100 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Cooler and dry conditions continue with northerly flow. A crossing cold front on Tuesday could develop isolated showers in the afternoon, primarily east and south of Pittsburgh. Upper low pressure, currently east of Cape Cod, will shift towards Newfoundland on Tuesday. A small exception can be made for the eastern forecast area where the ridges may provide some lift for a few showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.
224 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 As an upper lows meanders near the New England coast, weak cold front will settle south across the area tonight, followed by a slightly stronger cold front on Wednesday. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with some mid 50s in the typically cooler piedmont locations. A mid/upper-level cyclone will meander near the Northeast coast and maintain a broad field of cyclonic, generally nwly flow across the middle Atlantic through mid-week. The cold front passing through the area early Tuesday will mainly just be a dry front, as low-level thicknesses are actually at or above today's values with westerly flow. Lows will again be relatively mild ahead of another cold front dropping through the Appalachians on Wednesday.
Temperatures have been adjusted a little given that the air is cooler in some locations from the showers that occurred earlier this afternoon/evening. (Through Tuesday) As we head into Tuesday, the low to mid-level flow will begin to veer around to the south as high pressure moves to the east. This is where the highest coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected. (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Upper level troughing holds through the period, although flow is forecast to switch to the south ushering in some moisture.
This is due to a strong and stacked upper low near Nova Scotia. On Wednesday and Wednesday night, conditions will be changing as a cold front slowly approaches and moves through the area.
Discussion: We should remain dry through the rest of the early morning hours as a, increasingly diffuse cold front pushes further south. Min relative humidity values will be lower areawide this afternoon behind the cold front, especially north of I-40. Tonight our next system approaches with a cold front moving south down out of KY/VA.
Otherwise, expect partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s. A line of showers and storms is expected to develop off of the higher terrain of the southern rockies and will push east through the evening and into the overnight hours. Winds will be light overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s.
1139 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023 Highlights: 1) Near to just above seasonal temperatures 2) Afternoon chances for showers and storms each day Challenges: Precipitation chances and respective coverage Changes: Tweaked precipitation chances High pressure is anticipated to stay over the Plains with troughs over both east and west coastal areas of the CONUS. The trough over the east coast deepens and tracks west to the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Valley by mid to late week. Highlights: 1) Near seasonal normal temperatures 2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms Changes: Precipitation chances The eastern system continues to move west while the high pressure system tries to hold on but pushes west.
245 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Seasonably cooler and drier air will be here for much of the upcoming week. generally ranging from the low to middle 50s. Otherwise, central PA will be on the western periphery of the sphere of influence of an upper low across New England during this time.
The cooler 500mb temperatures are forecast to shift southwestward so that any isolated thunderstorms may be confined to Ulysses, Liberal and Elkhart and surrounding areas.
At the surface, the region will remain between high pressure to the east and low pressure over the Rockies. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s.
(Today and tonight) In general, the low level flow will remain very weak east to southeast today.
- A westward moving cold front will bring scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms today through Wednesday, with activity developing a little farther west each day.
An upper-level trough continues to sit in the Gulf of Mexico. It will stay through this week as a mid to low level ridge edges over our area from the western north Atlantic. Upon the ridge's approach, breezes will freshen out of the south to southwest as more unsettled environmental conditions elevate rain chances for the middle of the week.
612 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 (Today and tonight) Shower and thunderstorm chances decrease today in response to further weakening and eastward shift of a weak upper level trough that has been located from the eastern Panhandle to central Texas the last couple of days. Thunderstorms will likely develop on the higher terrain of northeastern New Mexico and southward down the Pecos river valley. With a slight shift eastward of the upper ridge to our west and more of a southeasterly low level fetch across the southern High Plains, there is a better chance of this convection being directed into the western sections of the Panhandle and South Plains by late evening, and possibly further into the forecast area before dissipating late tonight.
08Z sfc analysis shows that an area of high pressure has temporarily moved into Kentucky from the north. This has brought a cooler and drier air mass into the area, sourcing from the northeast, with still some milder and more moist conditions holding on in the far southwest parts of the JKL CWA. Under mostly clear skies temperatures ranged from near 50 degrees north to around 60 in the far south - and on many of the ridges. They all depict the continued southwestward expansion of the deep closed trough centered over New England. The high resolution models are a bit deeper with the height falls for eastern Kentucky into Wednesday than the medium range models but the blended NBM solution still looked reasonable for starting the forecast grids with just minor adjustments needed.
The ever so slowly propagating cold front continues to slip slowly southwestward, now across North Dakota and southern Minnesota. This cold front has brought some smoke and haze to the surface, still slowly working its way out of the Northland yet early this morning. This northeast wind will also keep lakeshore areas cooler, in the 50s and 60s, though this is a fairly normal temperature range for our coastal communities this time of year.
510 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 08Z sfc analysis shows that an area of high pressure has temporarily moved into Kentucky from the north. This has brought a cooler and drier air mass into the area, sourcing from the northeast, with still some milder and more moist conditions holding on in the far southwest parts of the JKL CWA. Under mostly clear skies temperatures ranged from near 50 degrees north to around 60 in the far south - and on many of the ridges. They all depict the continued southwestward expansion of the deep closed trough centered over New England. The high resolution models are a bit deeper with the height falls for eastern Kentucky into Wednesday than the medium range models but the blended NBM solution still looked reasonable for starting the forecast grids with just minor adjustments needed.
848 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Cooler and dry conditions continue with northerly flow. A crossing cold front today could develop isolated showers in the afternoon, primarily east and south of Pittsburgh. Upper low pressure, currently east of Cape Cod, will shift towards Newfoundland during the day. A small exception can be made for the eastern forecast area where the ridges may provide some lift for a possible shower or thunderstorms. Thus have left pops out but a pop up may occur on the west side of the Laurel Ridges during the afternoon.
348 AM PDT Tue Jun 6 2023 An upper level low in California will continue to impact out weather across the region.
That will favor boundary layer heating and destabilization, and when combined with the moist surface airmass, will yield MLCAPE values locally in excess of 1000 J/kg across interior ridges and mountains.
* Near surface smoke gets pushed south of the area * Low rain chances today, better chances tonight Upper energy rotating around an upper low across the northeastern USA will interact with a surface cold front to bring rain chances to central Indiana, mainly overnight tonight. Very dry conditions continue this morning, with dewpoints in the lower to middle 40s most areas. The synoptic scale pattern remains characterized by a broad amplifying low over the northeastern United States, with ridging centered over the northern plains. Wednesday morning could see some light rain as the cool front exits to the SW, leaving behind cooler and drier air through the end of the week.
505 AM PDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Through Wednesday, a low pressure system over California will bring periods of stronger and gusty southwest to west winds over mountains and deserts during the afternoon and evening with a slight chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the San Bernardino County mountains and deserts.
Closed low is near Vandenberg early this morning with plenty of thunderstorms continuing near its center.
416 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023 High pressure over the Northern Plains sandwiched between two blocking upper low systems will keep temperatures above normal for the next couple of days.
An omega blocking pattern remains in place through the period with southerly flow continuing at the surface. The moistest air, with dewpoints in the low 60s, will remain in the James River Valley up through the Turtle Mountains and east. Drier conditions with dewpoints dropping into the low to mid 50s are expected for most of western through central North Dakota this afternoon. The omega blocking pattern weakens through the remainder of the workweek.
614 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 (Today and tonight) In general, the low level flow will remain very weak east to southeast today.
633 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 (Today through Wednesday night) Upper level trough over the CA coast will continue to linger for the early to mid part of the week. In general this pattern doesn't favor precipitation over the Panhandles, but given the high moisture content at the surface, we can heat up and get popcorn thunderstorms that will not last long, but will also have very little storm motion, so brief periods of moderate to heavy rain. As we move into Wednesday the upper trough over the west will start to take a negative tilt and as a much deeper trough over the northeast CONUS takes a very strong positive tilt.
611 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Weak upper level ridging to our west, centered over far west Texas and New Mexico, will slowly shift southeast through the short term period. Forecast coverage of these showers and storms is in the 20- 30% range, down a bit from the past couple of days due to the slight southeastward shifting of the upper level ridge mentioned above. As the aforementioned ridging continues to slowly shift southeast on Wednesday, areal coverage of showers and storms will continue to decrease.
The Omega Block pattern will continue to set in over the CONUS, with an expanding upper level low over the NE CONUS. As the upper low expands, a series of short wave troughs will traverse from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. These short waves will drive a cold front through the area on Wednesday. Ahead of this cold front, moisture will begin to creep back into the region late tonight supporting a chance of showers and thunderstorms over northeast MO and west central IL. The cold front will advance southward Wednesday bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday evening. There is a narrow corridor of MUCAPE values ranging from 1500 - 2500 J/kg during peak afternoon heating with the highest values over central MO where I could not rule out an isolated stronger storm.
Key messages: 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms 2) Still warm today 3) Back door cold front arrives later today Details: Today: Back door cold front currently from central MN to central lower MI will gradually push southwest into our northern counties later today. This occurring as the Omega Block shifts west into the Plains, along with the deep trough in the northeast United States. Northeast winds will bring cooler temperatures into the area with lows bottoming out in the mid 50s northeast, to the lower 60s southwest.
711 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Weak high pressure will briefly set up over the western Atlantic today resulting in a temporarily shift to a low-lvl E-SErly regime. Overnight into Wednesday, the low-lvl will veer more SWrly as the high shifts eastward, which will help advect deeper subtropical moisture (PWATs up to 1. High temperatures today will range from the mid 80s near the east coast to the upper 80s on the west coast, while temperatures will warm to around 90 on the east coast on Wednesday as the low-lvl winds veer.
Models depict a weak mid level short wave trough, now over the Hill Country, will move south-southeast into south Texas this afternoon.
610 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 (Today and tonight) The low level will become southerly today as high pressure slides east of the area. The panhandle is where the highest coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms is expected. The lowest chances of rain today are expected to be across the eastern portions of the area where moisture return will be weakest, although an isolated storm cannot be ruled out there either.
Locally heavy rains over the high terrain. As for the lower elevations, guidance is not showing much in the way of precip today, so I do not expect much if any precip pushing beyond the I-25 corridor region during the daylight hours. Showers over the high terrain will linger into the evening hours then dissipate.
Area of weak high pressure centered offshore to the E/NE will produce a light onshore breeze today. High pressure offshore will build slowly southward over the western Atlantic through tonight.
532 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Cooler and dry conditions continue with northerly flow. A crossing cold front today could develop isolated showers in the afternoon, primarily east and south of Pittsburgh. Continued high pressure will support light winds and mostly clear skies through dawn. The cooler conditions due to the northerly flow and lower dew points will allow for low temperatures right around the seasonal normal through dawn. Upper low pressure, currently east of Cape Cod, will shift towards Newfoundland during the day. A small exception can be made for the eastern forecast area where the ridges may provide some lift for a possible shower or thunderstorms. Thus have left pops out but a pop up may occur on the west side of the Laurel Ridges during the afternoon.
The trend toward drier and warmer weather will continue on Wednesday as troughing over the North Gulf Coast flattens and upstream ridging edges east to over West Texas.
614 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 TODAY: Little change is expected for today's forecast as omega blocking persists across the CONUS with anomalously stout upper ridging tilts into the Northern Plains. Despite low coverage due to weak forcing aloft, a higher chance of rain (and a bit greater coverage) resides in southwest Minnesota where a slightly less stable (500-1000 J/kg CAPE) airmass sets up (vs more stable with greater subsidence under the upper ridge axis further west). Perhaps slightly warmer than yesterday, especially in central SD under stronger influence of upper ridging subsidence. Further west, dry conditions prevail under strong ridging aloft. WEDNESDAY: The atmospheric pattern (and suppressive ridging aloft) regresses westward a bit as a jet max digs another wave in to our east and the aforementioned boundary shifts a bit further west.
(Now through Wednesday) A broad upper level trough will continue over the eastern CONUS through Wednesday.
627 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Looking at the weather pattern across the area, there is a trough in place to our north, with high pressure across the south. By this afternoon the trough will edge to the south, but generally still be positioned across northern Alabama, with high pressure still in control across the south. However, with the position of the high pressure, southerly flow should increase across the south during the afternoon. This front will push the trough to our south and east during the day as high pressure will begin to diminish. Looks like the best moisture convergence will be across the southern half, associated with the trough as it moves through.
622 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A moisture starved cold front moves through today, followed by an upper level disturbance Wednesday.
Gusty winds along with cooler temperatures are anticipated through the end of the week. A large area of low pressure centered over southern California continues to spin over the Southwest. This troughy synoptic flow will influence our weather into the foreseeable future. Highs in the lowest deserts of Yavapai County will struggle to make it into the 90s.
Large scale blocking ridge remains centered over our CWA, though ensembles do show it starting to get "squeezed" from the east due to a deepening trough that is shown to extend into the Great Lakes region. ML CAPE today once again should reach 1500 J/KG range along the frontal zone (skinny profiles), but effective shear remains very weak due to the ridge (10kt or less). As with previous days this lowers any signal for severe, though we couldn't completely rule one out dependent on storm scale/boundary interactions (less than 5% probability for severe).
The high resolution models bring the convection into the plains by 00Z. Looking at Wednesday, the upper ridge center is over the Dakotas with weak southeasterly flow aloft for the CWA. Wednesday night, the closed upper low will be over southern CA/NV with a weak disturbance possibly moving northward through CO Wednesday evening. The threat of thunderstorms will be much lower across the northeast plains as the steering winds will keep the storms closer to the higher terrain.
346 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A low pressure system and a cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to eastern New York and western New England through this evening.
A well-formed closed low pressure circulation over central California is continuing to send moisture north into the Northern Rockies. This feature is part of a much larger puzzle that includes a high amplitude ridge over the central U.
For Wednesday and Wednesday night, a closed upper low is progged to be over southern California.
The dominant synoptic scale features continued to be a large upper low centered across California, a fairly robust upper high centered across the Dakotas, and another very large gyre centered over New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, Canada. The two large gyres will remain essentially unchanged, although latest models show the two gyres expanding their influence, effectively putting the squeeze-play on the northern Great Plains ridge.
A more potent boundary is moving northwest off the northern Mexican coast which could be what initiates more convection across the lower Valley. Headed into Wednesday, ridging across portions of the Southwest begins to creep into western and southern Texas. This will trend us towards warmer and drier conditions as conditions become a more stable. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer for Wednesday, especially across the Rio Grande Plains. Increased humidity will push heat indices into the low 100s across portions of the Upper Valley into the Rio Grade Plains on Wednesday. Overnight lows both tonight and Wednesday night will be in the low to mid 70s.
1230 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 (Today and tonight) Shower and thunderstorm chances decrease today in response to further weakening and eastward shift of a weak upper level trough that has been located from the eastern Panhandle to central Texas the last couple of days. Thunderstorms will likely develop on the higher terrain of northeastern New Mexico and southward down the Pecos river valley. With a slight shift eastward of the upper ridge to our west and more of a southeasterly low level fetch across the southern High Plains, there is a better chance of this convection being directed into the western sections of the Panhandle and South Plains by late evening, and possibly further into the forecast area before dissipating late tonight.
Though the Omega block that has been in place across our region for the past week has weakened some, by this evening and definitely Wednesday, a low pressure system associated with the Omega block off the Atlantic coast will strengthen.