Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A quasistationary upper level low centered over northeast Texas is providing the focus for convection this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure will continue to slide down the east coast turning gradient winds from east southeast this afternoon to southeast Sunday morning and eventually southerly by Sunday afternoon. The upper low over northeast Texas will open up as it begins to lift off to the northeast Monday. As the trof axis works across the region, convection will become more widespread providing wider coverage for much needed rainfall across the region.
(Today and tonight) The upper level low currently centered over North Texas will move a little farther west today but will provide no relief from the heat and dry weather. Increasing S/SW surface winds will keep temperatures warmer tonight with lows in the upper 60s and 70s.
Dew point temperatures will creep into the lower to middle 70s in the afternoon hours as well. Low temperatures will remain warm, with minimum values only falling into the lower 70s.
2) Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday afternoon mainly over/near the higher terrain. While still on the weak side, this could help with higher coverage of showers and storms Sunday afternoon as well as the potential for a few to move off of the higher terrain. Synoptically, the core of a short wave trough will be in the process of pushing to the east just north of the area. This feature will increase synoptic forcing/support across southern Colorado, and orographic forcing over the higher terrain. With that said though, a modest cold front will be shoved southward late in the day Monday and is anticipated to help cool off the next few days after.
315 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (Today through Monday) High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue across the CWA through Monday.
Upper level ridge will remain centered over the plains today, with southerly downslope flow leading to max temperatures well above normal for the today through at least Tue. 1000-850h partial thickness values suggest max temperatures very similar to yesterday topping out in the upper 90s to around 100, but the lower dewpoints will lead to it not feeling as muggy or oppressive.
(Today and tonight) Some mid level echoes associated with the upper low over northeast TX have dissipated now over southeastern OK, but mid clouds remain. Temperatures across SE OK yesterday afternoon were a few degrees cooler than expected within increasing low level moisture profiles. However, the low level thermal ridge will continue to nudge eastward today so it will be warmer than yesterday regardless.
The first cold front of fall has pushed through the area yesterday. Behind it we are seeing drier and slightly cooler air this morning. Temperatures will feel a little more comfortable this morning with most of us waking up to the low 70's. Temperatures will actually be a little cooler Labor Day morning with some interior places north of I4 dipping down into the upper 60's before warming back up into the low 90's. A weak cold front pushed through yesterday. A cold front pushed through yesterday bringing drier air for our Sunday and Monday with slightly cooler temperatures.
130 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 High pressure will dominate the region through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Surface conditions have gone calm across a majority of central NC due to the expansive, although weakening, high pressure over the southern Mid-Atlantic. Upstairs, aside from some very thin cirrus, dry N- NWLY between an expansive ridge to the west and a deep upper trough over the western Atlantic will result in mostly clear/sunny conditions. Lows in the lower to middle 60s.
Broad mid level thermal ridge, extending from the southern Plains into the western Great Lakes, only helping the warming cause with H8 temperatures now punching up into the lower 20C across northern Michigan (even warmer air lurking just upstream). especially north of the big bridge. A bit cooler conditions across eastern upper (more clouds) and near Lake Michigan. Upper level ridging along with a capping inversion are expected to keep the area precipitation free through at least Monday night.
334 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (Issued 334 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023) Today through Monday: Southwest flow on the northwest edge of high pressure will continue to bring in a hot, dry airmass over the area.
An upper level low is spinning over north Texas. Could see a few isolated showers or storms across our far eastern counties on Sunday afternoon due to the proximity of the low.
An upper low will bring cooler temperatures, more cloud cover, and a few light showers to the region this weekend. (Today and tonight) A closed upper low initially over northwest CA will devolve to an open-wave trough while progressing into the Great Basin.
340 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the Labor Day Weekend, leading to dry but warm conditions. Mid level ridging will shift slowly east across the mid and upper Ohio Valley tonight into Monday.
349 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 High pressure will remain over the area through the first half of this week with dry weather.
320 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 High pressure will dominate the region through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Strong mid/upper level ridging will remain in place over the eastern United States. Little if any changes other than hotter temperatures Monday as high pressure remains strong from the surface aloft. Highs in the lower to mid 90s are expected with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
411 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Broad high pressure over the Appalachians will expand north into the eastern Great Lakes through Labor Day.
1153 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Tonight the upper ridge will extend from NM to VA with a low over NE TX and a strong low along the CA coast.
1047 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 19z surface analysis had trough/dry-line from central MT to Faith to KANW. Upper low off the northern CA coast. Few mid/high clouds over the CWA allowing for robust insolation and temperatures rocketing into the 90s to around 100F - some 80s over the higher elevations. Main concern this forecast is disposition of upper ridge/upper low.
The location of the upper ridge will continue to support above-normal temperatures through the beginning of the work week, and southerly surface flow in response to lee troughing should yield highs once again in the triple digits for most. On Monday, the upper ridge will shift eastward as a cut-off low over North Texas is absorbed into an upper trough trekking across Western CONUS. Even with the breakdown of the ridge, thickness will increase slightly and warm, downsloping westerly winds should increase temperatures on Monday a few degrees compared to Sunday. Models show a disturbance moving across the northern portions of the region Monday as the upper trough propagates across the Rockies, which could open the door for a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon hours.
(Today through Monday Night) Another sunny, warm and dry day is expected today as an upper level ridge continues to dominate our weather. By Labor Day, the H5 ridge begins to get squashed to our south as an upper low over Texas weakens and ejects northeast over us.
337 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 High pressure will dominate the region through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Strong mid/upper level ridging will remain in place over the eastern United States. Little if any changes other than hotter temperatures Monday as high pressure remains strong from the surface aloft. Highs in the lower to mid 90s are expected with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridging will continue to build over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today. The much drier air mass will support clear skies for much of the region today, which will allow for slightly warmer high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for most.
1039 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2023 An elongated upper level ridge axis around 595 dam currently extends from southern Kansas to southern Illinois with low pressure over northwest California. The upper level low is forecast to move into Idaho Sunday night, pushing the upper ridge east of the area. For Monday/Monday night, the remnants of the upper low and its associated trough move northeast into southwest South Dakota.
Lows will fall into the low to mid 70s with light winds. Drying east-northeast flow will deepen through Sunday, as the upper low swirling near the Arklatex region retrogrades west and exits out of our weather picture. (Sunday night through Monday night) High pressure will dominate across the region throughout the short term leading to pleasant weather conditions as relatively drier air moves in.
Temperatures will continue to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon during the short term, but with lowered dew points arriving, heat indices will remain in the low to mid 90s across much of the area as the holiday weekend comes to a close.
(Today through Monday Night ) A large ridge of high pressure over the middle of the country will shift toward the southeast United States during the near term. A weakness in the ridge in the form of a storm system aloft will be over northeast Texas initially, but will eventually wobble toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. The system will be moved along by a large trough approaching from the Rockies/Plains. The trough and its effects will mostly stay to the north of Arkansas. Before the arrival of the trough, and with the storm system sitting to our southwest, abundant moisture will be in place.
1147 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 (This evening through Sunday night) Through Sunday, dry upper ridge, very apparent on satellite over W TX/KS/MO, will tend to wane as an upper low, currently over the ArkLaTex region, churns northwestward and western CONUS trough advances eastward. With southwesterly flow aloft slowly returning, surface lee troughing looks to be maintained to our west, driving a bit of a southerly breeze.
247 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 An expansive high pressure ridge will maintain control over our weather for much of the upcoming week.
The upper low will move over the Dallas-Fort Worth Metro area in Texas overnight while a persistent south to southeast flow will continue aloft locally. Lows will range from the low 60s far eats and northeast to readings around 70 far south and far west. The mid to upper low will remain centered over North-Central Texas on Sunday. Highs will range from the mid 80s in the higher elevations east to readings approaching 90 southwest and central.
(Today through Monday) High pressure will build into the area now, keeping any rain chances on the far western side of the state for the next two days.
930 PM PDT Sat Sep 2 2023 An upper low will bring cooler temperatures, more cloud cover, and a few light showers to the region this weekend. Evening satellite continues to show widespread cloud cover across the Bay Area and Monterey Bay regions as low pressure near Cape Mendocino slowly moves eastward. The slow pace of this low will accelerate Sunday evening into Monday and shifts out of the region.
(Today) Upper low currently centered over north central TX will remain near stationary through today with isolated showers or storms possibly spreading into far SE OK. Otherwise high temps are forecast a few degrees warmer today.
1214 AM PDT Sun Sep 3 2023 An upper low will bring cooler temperatures, more cloud cover, and a few light showers to the region this weekend. Evening satellite continues to show widespread cloud cover across the Bay Area and Monterey Bay regions as low pressure near Cape Mendocino slowly moves eastward. The slow pace of this low will accelerate Sunday evening into Monday and shifts out of the region.
The highest heat index values are expected along the river valley, central, and much of eastern and southern AR this afternoon. An upper low continues to slowly track westward across the south- central states.
The low pressure system to our west that has been responsible for pulling moisture northward into our area the past several days will move east today. The low will provide added forcing for stronger, more organized convection this afternoon.
Broad upper-level ridging extends from the Rockies to the Ohio River Valley region driving the warm and dry conditions. High pressure remains over the region, where we will see southwesterly winds keeping dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s. Very warm and dry weather will continue through at least Monday as the sfc and upper ridging remain in control.
151 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Minor updates this evening to reflect current observations, but otherwise, forecast is on track with high pressure in control of our weather. Discussion: High pressure will remain stationary over the southern Appalachians through tonight.
Discussion: Ridging aloft and at the surface persists through the holiday weekend, providing dry weather and gradually warming temperatures. Today will be similar to yesterday, except we start the day with clear skies and temperatures will be about a degree or so warmer.
Otherwise, look for overnight temperature to be a bit cooler with drier air moving in and generally light winds. The west coast trough gets a reinforcing wave tonight which begins to push it eastward and across the Great Basin on Sunday and Monday. Dry weather continues through the week as high pressure begins to re-establish itself across New Mexico and Texas.
(Today and tonight) An upper low will meander over North Texas today. The proximity of this low will bring a possibility for a few showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening to mainly Brown and San Saba Counties. With ample sunshine and the 850mb thermal ridge strengthening a bit today, expect highs this afternoon to be slightly hotter than yesterday. With a southeast to south breeze tonight, low-level moisture will increase, and temperatures will be warmer than the past few nights. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.
241 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 High pressure will keep the area dry over the next several days, while temperatures start to warm once again. Upper level ridging centered over Texas will reorganize with ridging becoming centered over the TN and OH Valleys by late tonight. At the same time a short wave moves SSE from New England and will help shape the ridge. At the surface, high pressure will be in control, although a lee trough develops along the Appalachians. High pressure will remain in control across the Mid Atlantic to start the week. Temperatures will continue to soar above normal due to an upper level ridge building eastward towards the Appalachian Mountains.
128 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 So far this weekend, our region has been warm and dry under the influence of a 500 mb ridge extending from the central Plains to the Tennessee Valley. A cutoff low over northeast Texas has been blocked by this ridge. The mid-level ridge will retreat to the east, allowing the mid-level flow to become southerly by Monday. Though a few spot showers cannot be ruled out this afternoon in se Missouri and far west Kentucky, there will still be enough ridging aloft to suppress convection.
/Issued 1259 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023/ /Through Monday/ With an upper low becoming positioned directly over North Texas today, scattered shower and thunderstorm development should occur later this afternoon during peak heating. The low humidity experienced the past few days will come to an end with surface dewpoints climbing back into the 60s for most locations. The stagnant upper low providing today's rain chances will become absorbed into stronger mid-latitude flow tomorrow, exiting the region to the northeast. /NEW/ /Monday night Onward/ An upper level ridge will build once again over Texas this upcoming week keeping the summer-like temperatures in place.
A quiet forecast period is expected as high pressure will continue to remain overhead. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-80s today with overnight lows in the low to mid-60s. Sunday will continue to be dry with temperatures climbing into the upper-80s with overnight lows back down into the low to mid-60s. The eastern third of the CONUS will be under the influence of a ridge of high pressure to begin the extended.
125 AM MDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over northern CA with ridge axis across the Rockies, and west/southwest flow extending through the Northern Plains. At the surface, trof is shifting into the eastern Dakotas.
Influence from the upper low remains resulting in scattered showers and storms this afternoon through the early evening. We will see a decrease in percentage of PoPs vs yesterday due to the low pulling further into the ArkLaTex region. Temperatures will be just a tad bit warmer than the day before with highs ranging from the upper 80s in the northeast to the low 90s elsewhere. Expect lows to be in the low 70s area- wide. A weakening upper low will remain trapped underneath an upper ridge on Monday, located west of our area but continuing to exert some influence. This upper low will continue to retrograde westward across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
123 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (Rest of today through Sunday) A backdoor "cold" front associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia will continue to gradually push across South Florida through this evening, ushering in very dry air behind it.
(Sunday through Monday) The closed low situated over the region continues to slowly chug west, where it will remain the primary weather creator for the short-term.
830 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 An expansive high pressure ridge will maintain control over our weather for much of the upcoming week.
A broad upper ridge across the central CONUS will continue to influence our weather conditions today. General model consensus wants to mix out the llm during the afternoon hours which would keep readings a bit cooler and not allowing heat indices to max out as high as they might. The feeling is we should see some mixing out of the higher dew points during the peak heating time of the afternoon and perhaps the nose of high pressure in our northeast could help in that regard. Parts of our western zones may catch a scattered shower or storm late tonight as the upper ridge breaks down and lead s/w energy rotates up closer into our region from the western CONUS upper trough.
642 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (Today through Monday) High pressure will build into the area now, keeping any rain chances on the far western side of the state for the next two days.
This low will ejects across the northern Great Basin and become an open wave as it approaches our CWA near sunrise on Monday. Temperatures will hover near normal again today then cool back some 5 to 10 degrees in many areas for Monday as this system pushes flattens the ridge for the next several days. By Monday evening, the trough passing to the north will be sliding east of the Rockies out onto the Northern Plains. The synoptic pattern will generally be dominated by high pressure building to the south over northern Mexico, troughing across the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains and ridging east of the Great Lakes over the New England States with transitory troughs and ridges moving through the longwave pattern.
655 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging will continue to build over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today. The much drier air mass will support clear skies for much of the region today, which will allow for slightly warmer high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for most.
Increasing chances for showers and storms through the early part of the week as a weaking upper-low pressure system lifts across the area.
A deep mean layer ridge sprawled across the Gulf of Mexico is pumping modified continental air into the region.
Warmer and drier conditions will prevail from Labor Day onward. This band is forecast to weaken through 12Z as attention turns back to the northern Sierra and far western NV in advance of the upper low. * Latest satellite imagery indicates the low may finally be on the move as an upstream system approaches the Pacific Northwest and the stronger winds aloft/upper level jet re-orientates itself at the base of the upper low across central CA. However, the latest HREF indicates showers and a few thunderstorms will be on the increase across the Sierra by daybreak with showers and thunderstorms spreading into western NV during the morning/afternoon hours as the upper low shifts eastward.
Much cooler temperatures and increased rain chances today as a front pushes across the region.
655 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 High pressure will dominate the region through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Strong mid/upper level ridging will remain in place over the eastern United States. Little if any changes other than hotter temperatures Monday as high pressure remains strong from the surface aloft. Highs in the lower to mid 90s are expected with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
624 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (Today through Monday Night) Another sunny, warm and dry day is expected today as an upper level ridge continues to dominate our weather. By Labor Day, the H5 ridge begins to get squashed to our south as an upper low over Texas weakens and ejects northeast over us.
Onshore flow maintains seasonably cooler and cloudier conditions through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Westward moving shower activity with a few embedded isolated thunderstorms is ongoing along an arc from the northern Oregon coastal waters to the Hwy 26 corridor between Astoria and Hillsboro as of 3 AM Sunday as a weakening upper level low remains parked over northern California. The departure of the CA low will allow onshore flow to become re-established across the area this afternoon, helping to keep temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday across many locations as inland highs only reach the mid 70s and coastal temperatures moderate back into the low to mid 60s.
635 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023 High pressure will remain in control providing fair weather through at least mid-week. The next chance of rain comes late this week as a cold front approaches from the north. Temperatures will also cool as the upper ridge is replaced by a trough. Expansive high pressure remains over the region today with upper ridging aloft.
609 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level low currently centered over North Texas will move a little farther west today but will provide no relief from the heat and dry weather. Increasing S/SW surface winds will keep temperatures warmer tonight with lows in the upper 60s and 70s.
We remain in a seasonably muggy pattern today and now more on the periphery of a mid/upper low over the Red River Valley than in recent days. Influence from the upper low remains resulting in scattered showers and storms this afternoon through the early evening. We will see a decrease in percentage of PoPs vs yesterday due to the low pulling further into the ArkLaTex region. Temperatures will be just a tad bit warmer than the day before with highs ranging from the upper 80s in the northeast to the low 90s elsewhere. Expect lows to be in the low 70s area- wide. A weakening upper low will remain trapped underneath an upper ridge on Monday, located west of our area but continuing to exert some influence. This upper low will continue to retrograde westward across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
607 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 (Today and tonight) Some mid level echoes associated with the upper low over northeast TX have dissipated now over southeastern OK, but mid clouds remain. Temperatures across SE OK yesterday afternoon were a few degrees cooler than expected within increasing low level moisture profiles. However, the low level thermal ridge will continue to nudge eastward today so it will be warmer than yesterday regardless.
The closed upper low along the coast becomes an open wave today as the trough axis continues to move east. Although shear increases today as the trough axis moves by, overall instability will be low. After the trough axis passes to the east by this evening, rain chances diminish quickly.
654 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023 Increasing chances for showers and storms through the early part of the week as a weaking upper-low pressure system lifts across the area.