Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
621 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 (Today and tonight) Continue to see upper ridge build east and south across the southern Plains today with increasing heights. Meanwhile, pressure falls will occur across the high Plains in advance of developing western trough, which will shift our winds back around to the south today.
Quiet, dry, and cooler weather continues today then warming through the weekend. High pressure at the sfc extends southwest from the Great Lakes region and keeps us dry with clear skies and slightly cooler temps today in the 70s and 80s. High pressure continues to dominate at the sfc while ridging aloft begins to expand eastward and amplify over the coming days.
423 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Current surface analysis shows cold front slowly moving across eastern portions of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over southwest SK, with shower and thunderstorm activity remaining mostly north of the region overnight. Skies are mainly clear with temps ranging from the upper 40s and 50s over parts of northeast WY and the higher Black Hills to the 70s over south central SD.
608 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge centered across the Desert Southwest will slowly shift east today, closer to West Central Texas.
753 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Aviation Subsidence under high pressure directly over lower Michigan will result in mostly clear skies today as also suggested by IR sat trends which show mostly clear skies across our region. High temps will reach the low to mid 70s this afternoon after a cool start to the day with temps mainly in the 40s across our area early this morning. High pressure will continue in control of our wx pattern through Friday resulting in mostly clear skies.
920 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Tropical Storm Idalia will move away from the coast of the Carolinas this morning, while a cold front will move southeast and offshore.
An upper trough will bring onshore flow and moderating temperatures today. Cooling temperatures this weekend with small chances for drizzle as low pressure aloft establishes itself nearby. (Today through Friday) Upper troughing will deepen along the West Coast as an accompanying cold front passes through later today and tonight. Relatively warm temperatures for today given the warm start; yet still cooler compared to yesterday. Coastal clouds should be both more widespread and linger longer into to the day with troughing around and the established onshore wind regime.
Chances for precipitation will be minimal throughout the day, although isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in portions of west-central Georgia in association with an inverted trough ahead of a developing upper low in the central Gulf coast region. A cooler and drier airmass is expected behind the front, with low temperatures forecast to be in the 60s across north and east Georgia. Meanwhile, the aforementioned inverted trough will continue to intensify, with scattered showers and thunderstorms becoming focused in the vicinity of the trough.
A trough over southern British Columbia will slowly move south along the Pacific NW coast into Northern CA by Friday afternoon. As the trough moves into northern CA, the flow becomes southerly, allowing monsoonal moisture to move into southeast OR and southwest ID.
118 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Dry weather is expected through the holiday weekend courtesy of building high pressure. This period brings dry weather, with slowly moderating temperatures, as high pressure sails southward along and east of the Appalachians, ultimately veering low level east to northeast flow to south to southwest. Mid-upper level high pressure over the middle of the country rolls over a mid-upper level low to its south, in a transient Omega block.
Highs are generally forecast in the 80s with lows in the low to mid 70s.
1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 (Today and tonight) Nary a cloud was found early this morning under an expansive ridge. Unlike the scattered cumulus we saw yesterday afternoon, increased subsidence throughout the column today should secure crystal clear skies along with warmer temps. Tonight's lows will also fair milder as the core of mid-level ridging treks east across the TX Panhandle all the while light southerly surface winds prevail.
Low pressure moving east across southern Saskatchewan today will maintain windy conditions through early this afternoon before winds decrease this evening.
Any fog that does form should dissipate quickly after sunrise and Friday should be another sunny day under the influence of the high. The upper level ridge to our west will continue building overhead on Friday, and this combined with strong insolation will push high temperatures up into the low to mid 80s.
140 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Aviation Subsidence under high pressure directly over lower Michigan will result in mostly clear skies today as also suggested by IR sat trends which show mostly clear skies across our region. High temps will reach the low to mid 70s this afternoon after a cool start to the day with temps mainly in the 40s across our area early this morning. High pressure will continue in control of our wx pattern through Friday resulting in mostly clear skies.
840 AM PDT Thu Aug 31 2023 A developing low pressure system along the West Coast will bring cooling through the weekend with the greatest cooling on Friday.
1130 AM PDT Thu Aug 31 2023 A developing low pressure system along the West Coast will bring cooling through the weekend with the greatest cooling on Friday.
Carysfort is the highest, accelerated by the weak troughiness lingering over Florida.
Precipitation chances return to the forecast due to a low pressure system that will meander over the Lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend.
203 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 High pressure over our region tonight and Friday will gradually move away to the southeast during the course of the long holiday weekend. anomalously strong H5 ridge centered over the heart of the country will nose across the Lower Great Lakes through Friday night. it will be quite cool (downright chilly Srn Tier) with mins ranging from the lower 50s along the lake shores and across much of the lake plain to the low to mid 40s across the Srn Tier and Lewis county.
Upper level ridging will remain in control resulting in hot and dry conditions. Lows this morning dipped down into the lower to mid 60s across much of the Concho Valley, northern Edwards Plateau, and northwestern Hill Country.
(This evening through Friday) A low pressure system will develop over the lower MS river valley through the day today and move to the west towards Texas through the day on Friday. At the same time, high pressure tries to develop behind the westward shift of the low pressure system, and over the Appalachians.
(Tonight) Tranquil conditions are expected to persist through the overnight hours as high pressure remains in control of the sensible weather across the Tennessee Valley. Overnight lows drop down into the mid 60s overnight, a few degrees warmer than experienced Thursday morning.
250 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 High pressure will build across the area and persist through the holiday weekend. The models are in excellent agreement with high pressure maintaining control across the Mid Atlantic throughout the weekend.
134 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Strong upper low was shifting across south central Canada. Subsidence behind this low was providing a dry day for southern Montana and northern Wyoming. An upper trough will deepen and drop into souitheast Oregon and northwest California late tonight and Friday. This will turn winds aloft to the southwest and build a ridge into eastern Montana. Therefore, temperatures will be a little warmer Friday, with high nosing into the upper 80s to lower 90s. This, combined with weak energy swinging aroud the upper low to the west. PoPs will mainly be confined to the higher terrain as easterly low level winds will place a cap on the western and central plains.
224 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 The synoptic setup this afternoon features troughing aloft to our north and west and ridging over the Bahamas extending westward over Florida. At the surface, Idalia continues to spin offshore the Carolinas, with weak troughing over the northern part of Florida and ridging over the southern part. Weak high pressure builds over the state tonight into Friday as Idalia shifts farther east into the Atlantic, though moisture remains high, so numerous showers and storms can be expected.
149 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 High pressure centered over the Lower Michigan early this afternoon is producing a downright pleasant weather day across the region. Temperatures will top out in the middle to upper 70s this afternoon (slightly cooler near the lake) under full sunshine. Expect highs to climb into the lower 80s under sunny skies Friday afternoon. For this reason, any slightly cooler conditions should be confined to areas right along the lakeshore. Friday night, a pronounced upper high will propagate into the Midwest from the central Plains.
128 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Drier air will continue to move into the area through the weekend, with cooler temperatures also expected across the region. As for temperatures, afternoon highs between 80 to 85 for most locations as the cooler and drier air moves through.
251 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 High pressure in the Great Lakes will move southeast and settle in the Mid Atlantic Friday.
1121 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Current surface analysis shows cold front slowly moving across eastern portions of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over southwest SK, with shower and thunderstorm activity remaining mostly north of the region overnight. Skies are mainly clear with temps ranging from the upper 40s and 50s over parts of northeast WY and the higher Black Hills to the 70s over south central SD.
1004 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Low pressure moving east across southern Saskatchewan today will maintain windy conditions through early this afternoon before winds decrease this evening.
1128 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build across our region through Friday before moving off the coast Friday night. A pleasant fair weather day is on tap as expansive high pressure builds into the region from the Upper Great Lakes. Temperatures will be below normal again today, though despite the cooler start, will still average warmer than yesterday. Strong high pressure will drift from the eastern Great Lakes Friday to New England Friday night, providing dry weather and mainly clear skies to close out the week.
As Idalia continues to push further east, this cutoff low will have a greater influence on the low-level flow. Discussion: At the start of the period, a large high pressure system will be sitting over the TN Valley and Appalachian region, with a low pressure system over the TX/LA area.
1254 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Expansive high pressure over the Central Great Lakes today will drift east into the Eastern Great Lakes tonight. Pretty quiet week weatherwise across the region as we have high pressure at the surface with building ridge aloft. Cool dome of high pressure has centered itself over the region this morning leading to chilly temps in the 40s to start the day. Upper level ridge axis will remain to the west of the area through the day with heights only slowly climbing. 850mb trough axis will be departing but only slowly rebounding with temps increasing from around 9C to 12C today.
1204 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 (Today and tonight) Continue to see upper ridge build east and south across the southern Plains today with increasing heights. Meanwhile, pressure falls will occur across the high Plains in advance of developing western trough, which will shift our winds back around to the south today.
Upper level ridging will remain in control resulting in hot and dry conditions. Lows this morning dipped down into the lower to mid 60s across much of the Concho Valley, northern Edwards Plateau, and northwestern Hill Country. The ridge aloft from New Mexico into the central Plains will be eroded during the weekend. This will occur as an upper trough develops over the western CONUS, and a weak upper low moves from near the Texas/Louisiana border toward north-central Texas.
204 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 High pressure will build into the Plains of Montana today and tomorrow, bringing a gradual weakening of the winds through the evening hours.
226 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Key Message: 1) Another rather seasonably cool night tonight, with a bit of a warm up for Friday but humidity stays on the low side. Will bank on southeast sfc winds maintaining at least 3- 5 KTs to keep temps from dipping cooler, otherwise some mid 40s could occur again in some spots. The above mentioned ridge will push off eastward enough to allow increasing southeasterly to southerly return flow as the progresses. Increasing thicknesses and mixing levels will help temps warm up into the low to mid 80s by later afternoon, with warmer values more prevalent to the west.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected for Friday morning, with the higher coverage along and east of I-65. /29 (Now through Friday) An upper trof oriented mostly from the lower Mississippi River into the western Gulf evolves into an upper low centered over Louisiana through Friday while a larger scale upper ridge otherwise builds across the Plains into the southeastern states. Shear values remain on the low side with 0-6 km bulk shear less than 20 knots, although may see bulk shear values approach 25-30 knots Friday afternoon over the easternmost portion of the area.
420 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 High pressure over our region tonight and Friday will gradually move away to the southeast during the course of the long holiday weekend. anomalously strong H5 ridge centered over the heart of the country will nose across the Lower Great Lakes through Friday night. it will be quite cool (downright chilly Srn Tier) with mins ranging from the lower 50s along the lake shores and across much of the lake plain to the low to mid 40s across the Srn Tier and Lewis county.
237 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 An upper low continues to move across southern Saskatchewan bringing in increased cloud coverage and potential showers to the northwest this afternoon. The upper low will progress eastward into Manitoba later tonight bringing forth ridging across the Northern Plains tomorrow. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid 80s north to the lower 90s across the south. Smoke aloft could wrap back around the the upper low bringing back smoke aloft into the region again late tomorrow. An upper level ridge is forecast to build over the Northern Plains ushering in the anticipated warmer weather this weekend. In addition a low level thermal ridge is going to extend up across the Central Plains into the Northern Plains this weekend enforcing the higher temperatures.
141 PM PDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees cooler on Friday.
Issued by National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 121 PM PDT Thu Aug 31 2023 A developing low pressure system along the West Coast will bring cooling through the weekend with the greatest cooling on Friday.
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Deep layer stability and columnar dryness held within a pervasive 1021 mb high pressure system ensuring another period of benign wx conditions late this afternoon. Seasonably cool thermal profile in residence fortified by low level northeast flow, lending to a traditional early fall diurnal temperature response despite the high degree of insolation.
The satellite loop today shows mid-level cloud cover over northwest Montana eroding from south to north in response to the warmer and relatively drier southwest flow that is occurring. In response, our temperatures will be dramatically warmer by Friday. Highs could be several degrees cooler today and Friday thanks to all the residual moisture.
The high pressure center is over the central Great Lakes region and will continue to move southeastward over time. As the high pressure slowly moves to the southeast, skies will remain clear tonight with light winds out of the east. The high pressure will continue to move to the southeast, and as a result, surface flow will shift to a southwesterly direction by the late afternoon/evening. A broad ridge axis will move into the central plains and begin to impact the region by slowly increasing temperatures. High temperatures tomorrow are expected to be in the low-mid 80s. ==================================== Synoptic Overview ==================================== Upper level pattern will start off in the trough west/ridge east type pattern which will continue through the upcoming Labor Day weekend.
Aloft, the pattern features a split-flow regime with a northern stream trough axis extending from the Upper Midwest into portions of the northern and central Rockies. In the southern stream, a positive tilted trough resides in the Southwest with a notable closed low embedded within nearing the Baja Peninsula. Winds will continue to diminish this morning, as high pressure builds in. The continued warm advection should result in much warmer lows, with most areas above zero with some lower teens possible far south.
This will result in an increase chance of mainly sleet, but light freezing rain is also possible.
At the surface a large high pressure center stretches from eastern Nebraska through north central Kansas and the upper level winds continue to show a longwave trough from the northern plains to the desert southwest with a closed low over LA. With winds staying on the light side wind chill values will fall to around -5 to -10 so just slightly warmer than advisory criteria. Wednesday the upper level trough should be located from New Mexico to Minnesota which will switch the mid level winds to the southwest.
Meanwhile, slow moderation of the residual Arctic airmass over the area will allow temperatures to recover above freezing by Wednesday.
Early this morning, a stationary Hudson Bay low was leading to continued northwest flow aloft over the Dakotas, with a surface Arctic high pressure centered well to our south. We will get a bit of relief from the bitter cold today, as a midlevel warm front starts crossing the state early this morning. Forecast highs range from the lower single digits in the Turtle Mountains area to the lower 20s in the southwest, although west winds are expected to be breezy across the southwest.
and Wednesday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show arctic high pressure centered across Iowa and extending northeast across Wisconsin early this morning. After a frigid start, temps will be a little warmer today with highs ranging from the middle single digits above zero to the low teens. With more in the way of cloud cover and a steady wind, temps should be warmer with wind chills holding steady in the 10 below to 20 below zero range. Southwest winds will draw in warmer air into the region with highs returning to the middle teens to lower 20s.
Synoptically, ridge of high pressure continues to dominate weather conditions over teh Sunshine State keeping multiple upper level disturbances from sliding into the area through most of the week. At the surface, area of high pressure builds while frontal boundaries move northeast across the Southeast. Above normal temperatures continue with highs staying in the low to upper 80s, and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s during this time.
The next wave is expected later this morning bringing the chance for freezing rain and sleet as far south as southern Arkansas.
904 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 Snow will taper off this morning as a cold front exits the region.
600 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 Ridge of high pressure maintains SKC conditions across SE MI this morning with light westerly wind persisting through the day.
537 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 (Today through Wednesday) The most recent surface analysis indicated that the recently- much-discussed cold front has now cleared nearly the entire BRO CWFA, with only the southeast corner of the Gulf of Mexico marine zone still pre-frontal. NAM guidance was once again heavily favored, and forecast reasoning remains the same: well below normal daytime highs and overnight lows will prevail as cold air continues to pour into the region in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. Luckily, the combination of rain and temperatures will not support the chance of frozen precipitation, or even freezing temperatures tonight.
Deep-layered high pressure should keep a lid on convection today with plenty of sunshine in store. Have a wonderful Tuesday morning! (Today through Wednesday) Deep-layered high pressure will remain the dominant synoptic scale feature over the area through the middle of the week. Afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 80s though some isolated inland pockets could reach into the upper 80s.
517 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 The axis of an upper trough exits late today.
However, new and lingering snow cover across portions of the plains will keep highs in the lower to mid 20's. Portions of the wrn Denver Metro area may see readings rise into the lower 30's.
While a marked improvement from previous days, all locations will remain below freezing, and no snow pack will melt this afternoon. The warming trend will continue Wednesday, as 850 mb thermal fields warm sufficiently to support afternoon temperatures in the lower 40s. A southern stream closed cyclone will spin through the Gulf of California into Sonora, Mexico Wednesday, with widespread isentropic lift and precipitation downstream across Texas and southern Oklahoma.
/22 (Now through Wednesday) Zonal flow aloft persists through Wednesday as the northern periphery upper level ridging remains in control over the area. Lows tonight will be noticeably cooler with lower to middle 40's over interior southeast MS and southwest AL, lower to middle 50's in the vicinity of the I-65 corridor, and upper 50's to near 60 across the FL panhandle.
A more pronounced warm nose exists over that area, with 825 mb temperatures around 3C combined with a well below freezing surface layer. Interestingly, warmer surface temperatures to the north will allow for rain to develop by Wednesday afternoon, while icy conditions remain to the southeast. Precipitaion is expected to change back to all freezing rain by the evening hours.
Southwest winds will draw warmer air into the forecast area, with highs returning to the middle teens to lower 20s. An arctic cold front will approach the region late Wednesday night, and bring a chance of snow showers to north central WI.
Although it is mostly cloudy to overcast across the CWA, the already-warm airmass in place is supportive of temperatures climbing into the lower 60s to lower 70s (except across our northernmost two rows of counties, where highs will generally be in the 50s). Elsewhere, fog (if it does develop) will likely be patchy as winds are forecast to be 4-8 mph and scattered showers will be moving through and mixing the low-level air.
While winds are still relatively light and variable in most areas, we are seeing an increase in west-southwest flow, most notably along and east/downslope of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota, but also to a lesser degree in other elevated areas in our South Dakota counties north of I-90. Similar to this morning, this will likely lead to some elevation dependence on wind speed and temperature, though perhaps not quite as noticeable in temps given the overall warmer air mass.
Conditions remained very cold throughout the Midwest under the influence of that cold high pressure system.
This afternoon is a carbon copy of yesterday afternoon, with gentle east to southeast breezes, highs near or a tick or two above 80, and dewpoints in the lower 70s. The sprinkles which strafed the Lower Keys yesterday have shifted west. The two main synoptic features to track over the next five days will be the mean-layer ridge entrenched over the Western Caribbean and the cyclone nearing the Baja.