Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1133 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 (Tonight) A potent upper trough will begin to take on a negative tilt overnight, signifying further intensification as it swings across the ArkLaMiss region. Some locations across the higher terrain east of I-65 could see gusts over 50mph at times, and we will continue to monitor obs and trends in case an upgrade is needed. Moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms are expected overnight, ahead of a cold front that will spawn severe storms well to our south. The only big change made to the overnight forecast was adjusting the lows up a few degrees, as temperatures currently range from the upper 40s to lower 50s and should not drop much overnight with the strong warm air advection in place.
Early morning IR satellite imagery is showing a strong cold front sweeping through the southeastern US and Gulf of Mexico. With the upper level trough lifting away from the Florida Peninsula, lapse rates do not look to be strong enough for widespread severe storms, but some low level shear could be enough for a few damaging wind gusts or isolated tornados this evening, with the greatest chances over the Nature Coast.
1026 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2023 This morning's mid-level trough has nearly exited the region to our east-southeast, visible via satellite imagery by the swath of cirrus clouds slowly shifting across the Divide. Over the next 24 hours, the Uintas have the highest forecast snow total with a whopping 3 to 6 inches.
905 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 A potent low pressure system over the Lower MS Valley will track into north MS and then West TN later tonight. Strong upward vertical motion across NE AR is cooling the lower layers of the atmosphere and changing the rain to heavy wet snow. Surface temps are above freezing so much of the snow is melting on roadways but where it comes down heavy enough there will be slick spots.
Downslope enhanced drier air in the lower levels and a lack of moisture associated with the approaching trough axis itself will lend to a lack of precip chances across western Kansas. A drier pattern remains on schedule through the end of the week as medium range models show the secondary upper level trough axis that arrives by this evening, pushing east through the Central Plains and allowing a zonal flow aloft to fill in behind it with little change afterward into the early part of the weekend.
1031 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Snowfall has become light over the past several hours with overall coverage decreasing from west to east as the upper low continues to move across West Texas. Snow will clear the Caprock before 00Z and clear the Rolling Plains at least by midnight as the upper low moves over central Oklahoma/North Texas.
Medium confidence on CIGS High confidence all other elements 30 (This afternoon through Wednesday) A pleasant afternoon will begin to become increasingly cloudy as a cold front approaches the area.
1047 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) As of the latest 18Z observations across the Panhandles, on the backside of an elongated H500 low pressure system based off the RAP analysis, there is a another band of snow that has developed. Going into tomorrow morning, as temperatures start below freezing, any untreated roadways and/or packed snow from vehicles along with overpasses with our higher water content snowfall event, this could result in some black ice to develop and cause some slick spots for the Wednesday morning commute. Overall, dry conditions return to the Panhandles as NW surface flow on the backside of the departing low pressure system.
A strong low pressure system continues to lift northeast and out of the region this morning. Lows tonight will be noticeably cooler as they fall into the low and middle 30s.
This low will drag a warm front northward but should only clip the far southeastern counties close to sunrise. Meanwhile a cold front is now sliding through the area. By sunrise the low should be near Nashville, Tennesse and then southern Ohio by midday. Look for temperatures this afternoon to be cooler across a good portion of the area.
With this increasing northwesterly flow and clearing skies, expect cooler temperatures this afternoon and especially overnight tonight.
(Today through Thursday Night) Quieter weather returns to the area today with drier, cooler and breezy conditions. Daytime temperatures will generally range in the 50s, with even cooler readings across our far northern counties. High pressure will continue to dominate the pattern on Thursday.
sunshine returns with high temperatures in the lower to middle 30s.
550 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 The low pressure system that brought us wind, rain, sleet, and a little snow will exit the Mid-South by late morning.
As the cold front exits stage right, we will see temps begin to fall this morning into the 40s and 50s by daybreak. Temps will be around or below freezing for at least a portion of the area, mainly over the northern half.
The low pressure system that brought us wind, rain, sleet, and a little snow will exit the Mid-South by late morning.
The weather this week continues to look pretty benign as a ridge builds to our west along the Pacific coast and a deep trough resides to our east. The strongest winds will be along and south of the higher terrain, mainly along Black Mesa, the Mogollon Rim, and the Bradshaw Mountains.
601 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 (Today through Thursday) Current temperatures have been a bit warmer than models had anticipated due to overcast skies persisting over the RGV.
High temperatures were lowered from NBM by several degrees in areas with the higher snow amounts, including tonight and to a lesser extent Thursday.
Water vapor shows large trof carving out across the CONUS with northern stream trof pushing from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Precip will taper tonight as best forcing/moisture aloft shift east as short wave ridge moves in. Temps should actually be a bit warmer on Thursday. Snow accumulations on the plains, even across northeast WY, should not be too significant given the overall lack of moisture/forcing and warmer temps.
Key Points: - Snow moves out of the area by sunrise today with temperatures not warming up far beyond freezing.
346 AM MST Wed Jan 25 2023 A mid-level short wave trough moving over the northern portion of the forecast area was responsible for snow showers across much of the northwest Colorado plateau as well as the eastern Uinta Mountains and the northern, and portions of the central Colorado mountains. Consequently, boosted PoPs to the 75th percentile of the NBM and raised PoPs further in the higher terrain. Snow chances decrease from west to east during the afternoon in the wake of the short wave trough, though instability and orographics will keep snow going over the northern and central Colorado mountains.
Temperatures will still be at or above normal in the central and west, and slightly below normal in the east with highs in the lower teens. A warm front extending off the clipper will start to move in Thursday morning in the west. Precipitation will start as snow until temperatures warm above freezing around noon, the rain is likely in the west and central. High temperatures should be above freezing everywhere with the southwest being the warmest in the upper 30s.
513 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 (Today) A wet start to this Wednesday morning as a deepening upper-trough swings into the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley. A broad area of moderate to locally heavy rain showers continues to push eastward across the region ahead of a cold front, with the backside finally beginning to push into northwest Alabama as of 0930z. Overnight, we've seen gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range, especially along the higher terrain and some locally higher gusts between 40-50 mph will remain possible at times, especially this morning.
(Today through Thursday) Current temperatures have been a bit warmer than models had anticipated due to overcast skies persisting over the RGV.
but some DZ/RA/IP will be possible across ERN sections where temps are a bit warmer just off the SFC.
Downslope enhanced drier air in the lower levels and a lack of moisture associated with the approaching trough axis itself will lend to a lack of precip chances across western Kansas. A drier pattern remains on schedule through the end of the week as medium range models show the secondary upper level trough axis that arrives by this evening, pushing east through the Central Plains and allowing a zonal flow aloft to fill in behind it with little change afterward into the early part of the weekend. A general warming trend begins Thursday as lee side troughing begins to develop in eastern Colorado, bringing about a more westerly downslope flow to western Kansas. Expect afternoon highs up into the mid/upper 30s(F) in central Kansas to the lower 40s(F) farther south.
Strong high pressure will remain over the region the next few days.
521 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) Quieter weather returns to the area today with drier, cooler and breezy conditions. Daytime temperatures will generally range in the 50s, with even cooler readings across our far northern counties. High pressure will continue to dominate the pattern on Thursday.
A ridge over the western United States will remain stationary providing a north to northwesterly flow over the Great Plains the next several days. The influence of the nearby ridge will continue the dry weather.
The first half of the day Thursday looks strikingly similar although it could be a few degrees warmer but still expecting cloud cover to linger.
UPDATED TO ADD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO Early morning IR satellite imagery is showing a strong cold front sweeping through the southeastern US and Gulf of Mexico. With the upper level trough lifting away from the Florida Peninsula, lapse rates do not look to be strong enough for widespread severe storms, but some low level shear could be enough for a few damaging wind gusts or isolated tornados this evening, with the greatest chances over the Nature Coast.
537 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 (Today through Thursday) High pressure will continue to settle into South Texas today with northwesterly winds funneling in cooler air. Clear skies tonight will allow for radiational cooling to take place, resulting in much cooler low temperatures. Lows for tonight will be in the 30s for much of South Texas, with the exception of the coast where lows will be in the low 40s. Some locations in the northern Coastal Plains could experience freezing temperatures for a few hours Thursday morning. Thursday's highs will be a few degrees cooler with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s along the coast and Victoria Crossroads to the low 60s further west.
659 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 Early morning IR satellite imagery is showing a strong cold front sweeping through the southeastern US and Gulf of Mexico. With the upper level trough lifting away from the Florida Peninsula, lapse rates do not look to be strong enough for widespread severe storms, but some low level shear could be enough for a few damaging wind gusts or isolated tornados this evening, with the greatest chances over the Nature Coast.
234 AM MST Wed Jan 25 2023 Water vapor shows large trof carving out across the CONUS with northern stream trof pushing from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Precip will taper tonight as best forcing/moisture aloft shift east as short wave ridge moves in. Temps should actually be a bit warmer on Thursday. Snow accumulations on the plains, even across northeast WY, should not be too significant given the overall lack of moisture/forcing and warmer temps.
(Today) A wet start to this Wednesday morning as a deepening upper-trough swings into the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley. A broad area of moderate to locally heavy rain showers continues to push eastward across the region ahead of a cold front, with the backside finally beginning to push into northwest Alabama as of 0930z. Overnight, we've seen gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range, especially along the higher terrain and some locally higher gusts between 40-50 mph will remain possible at times, especially this morning.
117 AM PST Wed Jan 25 2023 Cooler than average temperatures and valley inversions will persist through Thursday, bringing patchy low clouds, freezing fog, and some air quality concerns in urban valleys.
614 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 Water vapor imagery and RAP analyses reveal a weak clipper dropping through MN this morning, and a much stronger low currently over the lower Mississippi valley. Better chances for lake effect/lake enhanced snow showers develop after sunrise as the clipper drops in and phases with the southern system that will by then be moving into the lower Great Lakes. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the central part of the U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad and deep 500 mb trough over most of the U. Expect winds to weaken Thursday back to 20 knots or less as weak ridging moves back over the area.
This is a significantly stronger low pressure system pushed by a strong jet streak parallel to the Alberta/Montana Front Range. For now the best areas for High Winds appear to be Petroleum and Phillips counties under the subsidence area of the jet, Sheridan county in the tighter pressure gradient close to the low, and Prairie, Dawson and Richland counties on the downslope side of the Big Sheeps. Precipitation associated with this system will quickly transition to freezing rain or rain with the warmer temperatures brought in with the wind during the daytime, so blowing snow will not be an issue.
415 AM MST Wed Jan 25 2023 Water vapor shows large trof carving out across the CONUS with northern stream trof pushing from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Precip will taper tonight as best forcing/moisture aloft shift east as short wave ridge moves in. Temps should actually be a bit warmer on Thursday. Snow accumulations on the plains, even across northeast WY, should not be too significant given the overall lack of moisture/forcing and warmer temps.
Today through Tonight: Light Snow, Minor Accumulations Forecast remains on track through tonight as a pair of systems brush the region - a weaker wave to the north and a negatively-tilted wave and deepening low pressure to the southeast.
(Today through Thursday) High pressure will continue to settle into South Texas today with northwesterly winds funneling in cooler air. Clear skies tonight will allow for radiational cooling to take place, resulting in much cooler low temperatures. Lows for tonight will be in the 30s for much of South Texas, with the exception of the coast where lows will be in the low 40s. Some locations in the northern Coastal Plains could experience freezing temperatures for a few hours Thursday morning. Thursday's highs will be a few degrees cooler with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s along the coast and Victoria Crossroads to the low 60s further west.
Progged soundings suggest just a touch of instability will be present in the low levels while marginally supportive low level moisture discussed above remains in place, so have placed a mention of flurries in the forecast in our southwest late this afternoon and early this evening. Otherwise, have undercut NBM highs for today in deference to the effects of snow cover, with temperatures rising mainly into the mid 30s Thursday, while a longwave trough looks to swing southeastward over the CWA, highly positive tilt to this feature should result in the column drying out. As insolation continues to melt the snow, temperatures should be a bit warmer, with highs mainly in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Surface analysis depicts low pressure over northern Mississippi, with a cold front extending southward through the central Gulf of Mexico, while high pressure is centered east of the Carolinas. For today, other than a few sprinkles or very light showers around the Middle/Upper Keys early this morning, we expect a dry day with a good deal of sunshine, as decreasing SE/S flow ushers a dry airmass across our area ahead of the next cold front. High temps will climb into the lower 80s, which will likely be the warmest temps we see through the weekend. The cold front will push across the eastern Gulf tonight, then through the Keys on Thursday.
510 AM MST Wed Jan 25 2023 A mid-level short wave trough moving over the northern portion of the forecast area was responsible for snow showers across much of the northwest Colorado plateau as well as the eastern Uinta Mountains and the northern, and portions of the central Colorado mountains. Consequently, boosted PoPs to the 75th percentile of the NBM and raised PoPs further in the higher terrain. Snow chances decrease from west to east during the afternoon in the wake of the short wave trough, though instability and orographics will keep snow going over the northern and central Colorado mountains.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) A broad upper trough is over the Midwest and Great Plains early this afternoon.
Temperatures as of 200 PM were in the low to mid 30s. This will give us a brief break in precipitation through this evening with northwest winds ushering in cooler temperatures. Opted to not issue a Winter Weather Advisory due to the lower forecast snow amounts. Temperatures will be cooler than previous nights with values dropping into the teens (east central Iowa) to low/mid 20s (northwest Illinois.
A weak upper trough embedded in the flow will support snow in the West Central Mountains for additional light snow accumulations. Light snow will also develop over the higher elevations near the ID/NV border later this morning.
1117 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 (Today through Thursday) Current temperatures have been a bit warmer than models had anticipated due to overcast skies persisting over the RGV.
Main concern this evening through the overnight period continues to be a line of showers/storms ahead of an approaching cold front that will be pushing across the peninsula over the next 12-24 hours. Expect above normal temps across the area this afternoon to be replaced by temps 10-20 degrees cooler by Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds into the state with an accompanying cooler and drier air mass. Lingering cloudiness largely diminishes by Thursday afternoon, with mostly clear skies remaining into the weekend until our next chance of rain arrives in association with a cold front moving into the SE U.
124 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 The wintry mix will end shortly, leaving scattered rain showers tonight that will change over to snow by Thursday morning with a cold front passage. Precipitation moving forward will fall primarily as rain outside of the few locations near Dubois and the eastern higher terrain where eastern sfc winds are maintaining sub-freezing temperature. Precipitation coverage will be limited for the early afternoon hours as the Upper Ohio River Valley currently sits within the upper trough's dry slot. By this point, all locations are expected to be above freezing and thus precipitation falls all as rain. Gusts 25 to 35 mph are possible for the lower elevations with up to 45 mph in the higher terrain.
1126 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) Quieter weather returns to the area today with drier, cooler and breezy conditions. Daytime temperatures will generally range in the 50s, with even cooler readings across our far northern counties. High pressure will continue to dominate the pattern on Thursday.
150 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 A deep trough is stretched across most of the country, pushing towards the east coast by tonight. Low pressure in Ohio is moving towards the northeast. Progression of a trough axis and a very weak disturbance from the Upper Midwest will result in a chance of flurries overnight into Thursday, mainly for the eastern half of the forecast area. Despite winds shifting to southwesterly tomorrow night, clearing of skies will allow for lows to drop to the lower half of the 20s with near 20 values in areas with lingering snow cover.
At the surface, the systems related cyclone will progress northeastward into the southern Lake Erie vicinity, with a 4-5 mb pressure gradient in place across the local forecast area expected to maintain gusty west to west-southwest flow. Otherwise, we expect modest synoptic scale ascent to persist across the region as a secondary mid-level disturbance within the base of the longwave trough ejects northeastward from the Big Bend region of southwestern TX into the TN Valley by 00Z. Although temperatures briefly warmed into the l-m 50s shortly after sunrise across our eastern zones (prior to the arrival of the synoptic cold front), we expect readings to remain fairly steady in the l-m 40s for the rest of the day.
Continued cool pattern over the next 36 hours with chilly Last of the trailing cloud field on the backside of the longwave trough has exited to the east leading to mostly sunny skies for the entire forecast area. Highs this afternoon will remain below normal with 40s to the north and 50s based over the lower Rio Concho and adjacent Big Country. A chilly overnight period forecast with widespread 20s thanks to high pressure and light northerly winds keeping us on the cold side into the morning. Highs in the low-50s forecast from the I-20 corridor down to Big Country.
Mostly cloudy conditions will be present tonight, with breezy winds shifting from SW to NW with the passage of this cold front.
302 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 Winds this afternoon have been northeasterly as a low pressure system rotates over the Ohio Valley. As weak ridging moves back over the area Thursday, expect the LES to dwindle away, eventually moving offshore by this evening as a Clipper low approaching from the Canadian Prairies digs towards us.
950 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 Precipitation has tapered off across the Mid-South as the low pressure system continues to move out of the region. In addition, the Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire due to current observations and model trends showing the highest winds west of the Tennessee River. The remainder of today will be cloudy and cool with high temperatures in the low 40s. ANS The low pressure system that brought us wind, rain, sleet, and a little snow will exit the Mid-South by late morning.
348 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 A low pressure system will exit the Ohio Valley to the east tonight.
Afternoon Update: Trimmed the remain counties out of the Winter Weather Advisory based on surface observations above freezing and ongoing warm air advection ahead of cold front. Previous Discussion: Precipitation coverage will be limited for the early afternoon hours as the Upper Ohio River Valley currently sits within the upper trough's dry slot. By this point, all locations are expected to be above freezing and thus precipitation falls all as rain. Gusts 25 to 35 mph are possible for the lower elevations with up to 45 mph in the higher terrain.
/Issued 1226 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023/ /Through Thursday/ Northwesterly flow persists across North and Central Texas in the wake of a low-pressure system that has currently pushed off to the northeast towards the Ohio River Valley. Sunny skies will prevail tomorrow allowing for better insolation and slightly warmer afternoon highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Some slightly breezy northwest winds noted over Hill Country with cooler than normal high temperatures expected later this afternoon. The quiet weather remains as high pressure continues to influence the area through the short term period. Areas in the Hill Country and along and off of the Escarpment will see freezing or slightly below freezing temperatures, coldest Thursday morning.
At the surface, a trough is centered over the Dakotas, and winds are northwesterly at 15-25 mph, gusting up to 30 mph. Another factor with Round 2 will be stronger northwesterly winds behind the warm front.