Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
657 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (Tonight) Another nice night is in store for the TN Valley with high pressure in control of the region at the sfc.
818 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 The surface front and area of low pressure over central NC through tonight should finally move eastward and out of the area Tuesday.
The remaining showers in southwest Idaho will diminish by sunset, especially as a dry cold front moves through the area overnight. In the wake of the cold front, flow aloft will allow a substantial increase of OR/CA wildfire smoke into the forecast area. Cooler temperatures are anticipated on Tuesday, which will be a reprieve from previous days. Surface winds: SE to SW 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt through this evening, shifting to SW to NW tonight behind a cold front and diminishing late tonight.
/15/ This Afternoon through Tomorrow: The influence from mid- and upper-level ridge of high pressure prevailing over the region can be seen easiest in the fair weather cumulus field spread over the region today - radiating out in an anticyclonic direction from a point between Cleveland and Greenwood, MS.
A cold front stretched from the Straits of Mackinac into northern Wisconsin and central Minnesota this afternoon.
708 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 This Afternoon through Tomorrow: The influence from mid- and upper-level ridge of high pressure prevailing over the region can be seen easiest in the fair weather cumulus field spread over the region today - radiating out in an anticyclonic direction from a point between Cleveland and Greenwood, MS.
508 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Upper ridge centered over the southern Rockies will be in control through the short term period.
846 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 As of 8 PM CDT, temperatures have fallen towards the low-to-mid 80s. Under clear skies and light winds once again tonight, temperatures are expected to continue falling towards minimums in the upper 60s and lower 70s (slightly warmer from last night but near normal for this time of the year). /16/ (This evening through Tuesday Night) Upper troughing across the south, with ridging to the west will continue to influence present conditions across the Four State through the remainder of the day and heading into tonight. That being said, no significant changes are really expected outside of maxT's trending a few degrees warmer.
641 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) High pressure will strengthen across the region continuing to push temperatures to higher levels.
645 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Mainly dry and hazy conditions are expected through Tuesday with weak high pressure in control.
739 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 High pressure will prevail this week. What is left of the longwave trough across the eastern U. will steadily fill on Tuesday as subtropical ridging begins to reassert its self across the region. Even at the coast where dewpoints will pool slightly back into the lower 70s each afternoon with the afternoon sea breeze, any moist updrafts that can develop will likely quickly mix out due to dry air entrainment.
303 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Moisture continues to rotate around the high centered across the southwestern US. Strong wind gusts will be the primary concern, however, given the high storm bases and dewpoint depressions at the surface. The ridge will reinforce itself on Tuesday.
1022 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 High pressure will prevail this week. What is left of the longwave trough across the eastern U. will steadily fill on Tuesday as subtropical ridging begins to reassert its self across the region. Even at the coast where dewpoints will pool slightly back into the lower 70s each afternoon with the afternoon sea breeze, any moist updrafts that can develop will likely quickly mix out due to dry air entrainment.
Upper ridge centered over the southern Rockies will be in control through the short term period.
416 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Moisture continues to rotate around the high centered across the southwestern US. Strong wind gusts will be the primary concern, however, given the high storm bases and dewpoint depressions at the surface. The ridge will reinforce itself on Tuesday.
640 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (This evening through Tuesday night) Models continue to see the 500mb high pressure center build over the Four Corners with most runs now projecting center of the high to reach 600dm by this evening. With the high expected to hold for the short-term and potentially a decent portion of the extended, dry weather with hot temperatures continues to be the main headline for the week. Latest guidance does expect storms to form off the mountains with this low, and, given the combination of intense heating and still above normal dewpoints, it would not be much of a stretch for storms to form or move into our area. Heading into Tuesday, trends continue to see the high pressure center strengthen further and bring another round of hot temperatures.
627 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Upper troughing across the south, with ridging to the west will continue to influence present conditions across the Four State through the remainder of the day and heading into tonight. That being said, no significant changes are really expected outside of maxT's trending a few degrees warmer.
712 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Central Alabama remains on the dry side of a mid to upper level trough axis which extends southward along the East CONUS. 25 inches, expect sunny to mostly sunny skies to continue through tomorrow as the ridge over the Desert Southwest begins to gradually build eastward. Temperatures will remain on the warmer end with highs in the lower to mid 90s, and overnight lows in the 60s, but daytime RH values in the 35-45 percent range will make it feel more tolerable outside.
Upper troughing remains just west of the area for Tuesday but weaker than the past few days.
617 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) The 598 dam upper level high positioned over the Four Corners has allowed for northerly flow to prevail over the forecast area. These clouds and southerly surface winds will help keep overnight lows fairly warm in the low to mid 70s.
However, HREF and HRRR models are showing chances for a few showers to linger off the Nature Coast throughout the overnight period as the upper level trough continues to extend south into the northern Gulf.
725 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Critical fire weather conditions continue through the afternoon with increasing gusty winds and a drying out of the area ahead of a passing cold front.
637 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 In the mid and upper levels, a trough is situated over Quebec/Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes and Southeast CONUS while a ridge presides over the Rockies into the Plains. There is another trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. Highlight: Hot - Temps around 100 degrees Challenges: Dewpoints and associated heat indices Changes: 1) Increased overnight temps tonight and daytime temps Tuesday 2) Expanded Heat Advisory for Tuesday An eastward shift in the pattern is expected with the wave approaching the Pacific Northwest to reduce the amplification of the ridge on Tuesday.
Steep NWrly flow will persist in the mid/upper levels thru tomorrow night before a stout upper ridge over the Four Corners region begins to expand Ewrd.
The trough is continuing to depart to the east and northeast, with heights slowly rising through the day. 850 hPa temps are expected to rise into the 17-20C range, and with deep mixing this afternoon under sunny skies, high temps should be a few degrees warmer today than yesterday - solidly in the mid 90s. Tonight, it isn't expected to be much different, with temps cooling into the low 70s under mostly clear skies. Upper trough across the region will slowly weaken as both the upper ridge over the western Atlantic and across the southwestern U. Highs will be in the middle 90s each day with lows in the lower to middle 70s. The upper ridge across the southwestern U. Downstream of this shift, trough will dip back into the southeastern States into early this week.
Excessive Heat Warnings remain for the lower deserts with highs near 115 degrees over the next few days. It does look like some gradual cooling is in the works later this week as the strong upper high over the Southwest drifts farther east, and a weak trough develops along the West Coast. The trough will turn winds aloft from south to southwest, bringing in drier air and lower humidity below 10K FT.
124 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 High pressure will prevail this week. What is left of the longwave trough across the eastern U. will steadily fill on Tuesday as subtropical ridging begins to reassert its self across the region. Even at the coast where dewpoints will pool slightly back into the lower 70s each afternoon with the afternoon sea breeze, any moist updrafts that can develop will likely quickly mix out due to dry air entrainment.
347 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Mainly dry and hazy conditions are expected through Tuesday with weak high pressure in control. This is a cautious reminder of the low-confidence POP forecast within the active summer pattern this week. Following patchy ground fog early Tuesday morning, or some haze from wildfire smoke, Tuesday's high temperatures climbs a few degrees warmer such that 90 degrees is within reach.
Dewpoint values have also mixed out to below 70F away from the immediate coast, for a slightly more comfortable feel in the air, despite ambient temperatures in the low-mid 90s. Meanwhile, an 850mb high becomes centered over Louisiana for Tuesday, while the eastern flank of the upper high builds back into western LA, at least.
157 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 07z surface analysis had trough from eastern MT into western NE. Upper support tentatively weak, but given flow around upper ridge there will certainly be a wiggle in there somewhere.
(Tonight through Tuesday) Another night of quiet conditions across the area due tothe influence of upper level ridging. 14 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Tuesday) Central Alabama remains on the dry side of a mid to upper level trough axis which extends southward along the East CONUS. 25 inches, expect sunny to mostly sunny skies to continue through tomorrow as the ridge over the Desert Southwest begins to gradually build eastward. Temperatures will remain on the warmer end with highs in the lower to mid 90s, and overnight lows in the 60s, but daytime RH values in the 35-45 percent range will make it feel more tolerable outside.
1117 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 In the mid and upper levels, a trough is situated over Quebec/Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes and Southeast CONUS while a ridge presides over the Rockies into the Plains. There is another trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. Highlight: Hot - Temps around 100 degrees Challenges: Dewpoints and associated heat indices Changes: 1) Increased overnight temps tonight and daytime temps Tuesday 2) Expanded Heat Advisory for Tuesday An eastward shift in the pattern is expected with the wave approaching the Pacific Northwest to reduce the amplification of the ridge on Tuesday.
355 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 A upper level high located over the desert Southwest will give heed to quiet weather across the region today. Lows will be around seasonal averages as temperatures will be in the low 70s.
Upper heights continue to increase with mostly clear conditions and warmer temperatures. Discussion: The anomalous 597 dam 500mb ridge across the Great Plains will continue to expand eastward today with temperatures a couple of degrees warmer this afternoon. There is a very low chance (about 10 percent) of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but with the dry airmass and surface ridging in place, have kept mentionable precip out of the forecast for this afternoon. With the warmer temperatures, we will start to see heat index values in the mid to upper 90s across the southern Tennessee Valley near Chattanooga. Mostly dry weather with slight chances of storms in the higher terrain. Strong ridging across the western US and another over the Atlantic will dominate the synoptic scale weather pattern this week.
(Today and tonight) A strong upper level ridge will remain entrenched across the Southwest and South-central CONUS today, while the low-level thermal ridge remains strong as well (850 mb temperatures similar to what they were yesterday).
(Today through Wednesday Night) The short term forecast remains largely dominated by a relatively stagnant synoptic pattern, as a mid to upper level ridge looms over the Four Corners/Texas Panhandle. While this ridge aims to drift eastward slightly, SE Texas should still remain on the peripheral of this ridge, with PWs ranging from 1.
Today, before the arrival of rich tropical moisture associated with a retrograding Tropical Upper Tropospheric trough (TUTT), dry air will persist, resulting in relatively dry conditions. However, it has now been increased to 30% because of the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) and its associated moisture.
High pressure establishes itself over the region Wednesday through late week. Temps will reach a few degrees above normal given the modest upper subsidence and slow sea breeze progression, but persist cirrus will help ensure that temps dont reach above the lower to mid 90s. Upper ridging over the western Atlantic builds westward into the region for the mid to late week period.
A broad closed H500 upper high is set to remain centered over the Four Corners/Upper Rio Grande Valley region thru much of the coming week. The influence of upper high pressure, and low-lvl Srly flow wl primarily result in incr daily temps, but moderate dewpoint temps should keep heat index values at manageable levels for most areas, thru at least the short term, though heat headlines may be needed again for portions of Cntrl and Ern AR as early as Wed afternoon.
1235 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) The 598 dam upper level high positioned over the Four Corners has allowed for northerly flow to prevail over the forecast area. These clouds and southerly surface winds will help keep overnight lows fairly warm in the low to mid 70s.
257 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Current global scale pattern, as indicated on satellite, still shows a strong ridge over the intermountain west and a decent trough over the Hudson Bay region south into the Eastern Great Lakes. This orientation provides ample WAA under the ridge which will be firmly in place over the region. At this point, South Central and Southeast Kansas will have the higher Tds today and into Wednesday. Again, the main issue will be the potential for a mid level trough to come through with some showers and thunderstorms which would keep heat indices in check across the region.
Expansive high pressure ridge which has dominated the Southwest US most of the month remains in place and is centered over the southern Rockies today, with a south-southwesterly flow aloft across the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin. Temperatures will be similar, perhaps a couple degrees warmer, than yesterday thanks to some slight height rises and continued mixing out of the low level moisture. Meanwhile, as mentioned above, very limited and meager monsoonal moisture will hang around today, in just enough quantity to spark some isolated afternoon and evening development mainly in the higher terrain.
Upper trof axis over the Appalachians this morning will push off the mid-Atlantic coast by daybreak Wednesday, allowing a hot upper ridge centered over the Four Corners to expand eastward.
(Today and tonight) A drier mid-level airmass will continue to gradually press southward today as the southwesterly flow associated with the retreating upper trough is replaced by the northerly flow of the upper ridge building in its place. High temperatures will push back towards the mid 90s for the northern and western portions of the forecast area with the upper ridge building into the area.
240 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Upper level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest this morning while the ridge over eastern Montana moves to the east today. A weak cold front moves through the area this morning and early afternoon. Monsoonal moisture aloft today may be able to combine with the unstable atmosphere and a secondary cold front in the late afternoon and tonight for a few thunderstorms. Upper trough will track across the Canada Prairies on Wednesday which will flatten the ridge.
Most of the area is now reporting dew points in the lower and mid 70s. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s thanks to the lower humidities.
1052 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Moisture continues to rotate around the high centered across the southwestern US. Strong wind gusts will be the primary concern, however, given the high storm bases and dewpoint depressions at the surface. The ridge will reinforce itself on Tuesday.
The lions share of shower activity will remain south of line from Brunswick to Lake City where the highest PWAT content remains. The drier air mass will then shift southward along the Interstate 10 corridor tonight as troughing aloft over the southeastern states continues to gradually fill. Temperatures will be near normal both days, with highs in the lower 90s, and a little cooler on the east coast with the help of the Atlantic sea breeze.
935 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Critical fire weather conditions continue through the afternoon with increasing gusty winds and a drying out of the area ahead of a passing cold front.
High temperatures for Tuesday will be similar or a couple degrees warmer compared to today, as the smoke will be less concentrated over the area. Additionally, warmer 850mb temps will begin moving into the area towards the later part of the day.
1257 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Mainly dry and hazy conditions are expected through Tuesday with weak high pressure in control. This is a cautious reminder of the low-confidence POP forecast within the active summer pattern this week. Following patchy ground fog early Tuesday morning, or some haze from wildfire smoke, Tuesday's high temperatures climbs a few degrees warmer such that 90 degrees is within reach.
Upper level ridging starts moving more overhead today from the Plains. With this upper level ridge expanding, expect a warm and dry day with highs in the lower to mid 90s, and southwest flow at the sfc will bring in more moisture and keep dewpoints in the 70s. Expect similar tomorrow as the ridge becomes more established overhead.
(Today) The eastern half of the ridge of high pressure was firmly in place across the Southern Plains this morning and will continue to remain that way through the day. Some scattered high clouds across the Central Plains were drifting southward along the eastern periphery of the ridge. With the ridge in place over the region combined with the low level thermal ridge expanding east/northeast toward the CWA and breezy/gusty south to southwesterly winds. afternoon temperatures look to be warmer today with highs in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Have gone slightly cooler than the NBM as the NBM was near/warmer than NBM90 for much of the CWA.
155 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Weak low pressure will move away from the area tonight, with a front remaining stalled offshore through mid week. High pressure establishes itself over the region by mid to late week. Overnight should remain mostly dry, but upper troughing to the west could bring persistent cirrus, limiting radiational cooling on an otherwise calm night. The upper trough lifts out Tuesday with upper ridge over the western Atlantic gradually building into the region.
406 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 The pattern aloft over the country features high pressure over the southwest, with a trough over the eastern half of the country and ridging over the Atlantic. The Florida peninsula remains under the base of the trough as the ridge extends westward toward the region. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis extends across the central peninsula, with onshore flow continuing across the local area.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Upper ridge centered over NM today extends from CA to AR and will spin in place through Wednesday. An upper trough over BC/WA/OR will move east along the border flattening the ridge but have little impact for NM and TX. Lows mainly in the 70s with a few 60s for the higher elevations.
1213 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) High pressure will strengthen across the region continuing to push temperatures to higher levels.
Hot and humid weather is expected to arrive mid-week, before a cold front moves through this weekend.
1124 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 An upper level trough will bring scattered thunderstorms this evening and again on Tuesday.
The cold front that moved through north central Idaho and northwest/west-central Montana overnight will remain stalled across southwest Montana today. Locations behind the front will be cooler by as much as 10 to 15 degrees, bringing more seasonal temperatures to the region.
(Today through Wednesday) A broad upper ridge covers much of the SW CONUS, but the center remains concentrated over Central NM with H5 heights at around 600 decameters.
Warmer temperatures expected again today with highs climbing into the 90s. Warmer conditions expected for Wednesday with forecast high temperatures in the 90s and heat indices reaching at or slightly above 100.
319 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Bermuda High pressure will keep the area seasonably warm through midweek with hotter temperatures later in the week. Mid-level trough will linger west of the area today then lift off to the north tonight. Quiet conditions will continue through the mid week period as mid level ridging will the main story. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 90s both days with lows consistently in the middle 70s. Although the area will not be under any actual ridge axis, which has been a good pattern for convection at times in the past, the deep moisture just doesn't seem to be in place or advecting in with the lethargic late summer pattern.
1236 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday) Another night of quiet conditions across the area due to the influence of upper level ridging. 14 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Tuesday) Central Alabama remains on the dry side of a mid to upper level trough axis which extends southward along the East CONUS. 25 inches, expect sunny to mostly sunny skies to continue through tomorrow as the ridge over the Desert Southwest begins to gradually build eastward. Temperatures will remain on the warmer end with highs in the lower to mid 90s, and overnight lows in the 60s, but daytime RH values in the 35-45 percent range will make it feel more tolerable outside.
The upper ridge continues to spin over New Mexico with north northeasterly flow aloft. Temperatures will be fairly similar to yesterday, but may be even a degree or two warmer in certain areas.
But the strong heat will be held down as HI numbers should only be several degrees warmer than ambient highs. It takes high dew pt temps to act in unison with hot temps to cause the HI numbers to rocket and dew pts stay around the upper 60s to the low 70s for the most part.
1252 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (This evening through Tuesday night) Models continue to see the 500mb high pressure center build over the Four Corners with most runs now projecting center of the high to reach 600dm by this evening. With the high expected to hold for the short-term and potentially a decent portion of the extended, dry weather with hot temperatures continues to be the main headline for the week. Latest guidance does expect storms to form off the mountains with this low, and, given the combination of intense heating and still above normal dewpoints, it would not be much of a stretch for storms to form or move into our area. Heading into Tuesday, trends continue to see the high pressure center strengthen further and bring another round of hot temperatures.
435 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Mainly dry but hazy conditions are expected through Tuesday with weak high pressure in control.