Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1145 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 Large area of strong high pressure remains parked over the Great Lakes region late this evening. Pattern Synopsis: A closed upper-level low will continue to pivot over the north Atlantic off of the New England coast tonight as amplified ridging slides eastward, positioning itself overhead by Saturday morning. Forecast/Details: Quiet weather will continue across northern Michigan through tonight with aforementioned high pressure in place. Low temperatures tonight will dip below 40 across most areas, with interior low-lying areas dropping near freezing late tonight/early Saturday morning. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast Details: Broad ridging will remain over the region through the period as a cut-off low pinwheels over the southeast CONUS, keeping quiet weather in place across the Great Lakes through the holiday weekend.
An upper level trough will remain in place across western Kansas throughout the short term with the upper level ridge starting to break down over the Plains. Meanwhile, moist southeasterly flow continues at the lower portions of the atmosphere creating increased low to mid level cloudiness across western Kansas.
Continued to trend toward the warmer end of NBM guidance given a continued slight cool bias.
Skies are clear across the region, although a few CI are advecting southwestward across northern lower around the ridge the north. The northern part of the upper ridge is progd to flatten a bit Saturday as a trough over the Tennessee valley becomes a bit more active. Temperatures will warm a bit as the upper ridge flattens. However, light afternoon lake breezes will prevent those warmer readings from materializing during peak afternoon heating.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed high pressure situated over the Great Lakes region with visible satellite imagery indicating clouds rotating around this high pressure. Farther aloft, an upper-level high pressure to reside from the northern Great Lakes into the western Atlantic. The only concern remains the low afternoon relative humidity with good mixing taking these values down into the 15 to 20 percent range far north, 20 to 30 percent range elsewhere.
Heading into the evening and overnight hours, expect these conditions to continue with temperatures expected to peak in the low to upper 80s. Temperatures should gradually cool down after sunset tonight with overnight lows expected to be in the low to upper 50s across the area. Saturday & Sunday: Looking into the rest of the weekend, more of the same continues! The amplified ridging continues to slowly push eastward across the plains eventually setting up a "Rex Block" across the eastern CONUS.
On Sunday, a s/w trough is progged to kick out of the northern High Plains/Rockies during the day and into the western Dakotas by afternoon into Sunday evening. The forecast starts off with a ridge aloft over the Great Lakes, and weak troffing over the Northern High Plains.
1131 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) No issues with the short term part of this package as the mid/upper ridge remains the main focus with the larger pattern.
331 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023 High pressure will remain firmly in place across the Great Lakes through the long holiday weekend.
A cold front drops south through New England Sunday evening which brings temperatures closer to seasonal averages for Memorial Day.
Southern Nevada and the Mojave Desert will lie between a weak trough across Arizona and the next trough over the PacNW.
Some low-level moisture exists near KOHX and their VAD wind profile has southerly flow in the low-levels. Severe weather is not anticipated, but it would not be a complete surprise if there were a few cold air funnels given the proximity of the upper low just south of the area. The biggest impact from this system will be cloud cover and cooler temperatures Sunday. High pressure aloft will begin to reassert itself over the Quad State on Memorial day.
359 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023 Moisture from a system along the Atlantic coast will get drawn into the region around a large upper level low.
1227 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Upper level ridge axis will remain just west of the area tonight into Saturday. Temperatures will be mild again tonight, with lows in the 60s and highs on Saturday in the low to mid 80s.
1149 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 High pressure maintains light winds and clear/mostly clear skies through the night.
343 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023 Mainly dry weather is expected for much of the area through the holiday weekend with high pressure over the Great Lakes region.
It seems to resemble a weak cold front which is not noticeable in the dew points or temperatures across the Keys. Temperatures throughout the Keys are in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. In the mid to upper levels, a Rex block pattern is in place across the eastern United States with high pressure over the Great Lakes region with low pressure over the southeastern United States. At the surface, a low pressure system is currently spinning to the east of Savannah, Georgia close to the Gulf Stream. This is the highest daily rainfall total recorded in the month of May.
650 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023 High pressure will remain firmly in place across the Great Lakes through the long holiday weekend.
435 AM MDT Sat May 27 2023 SSW flow aloft will remain over the area today into tonight as a rather broad weak upper level trough is over the wrn US. Elsewhere will keep a chc of storms over the higher terrain although activity could end up being more isold than currently fcst.
The synoptic situation has not changed much as upper level low pressure sits over the western United States. By Sunday and Sunday night, all models are showing the upper trough generally over the western United States, though energy will be dropping south across central California during the day.
1034 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023 High pressure will remain firmly in place across the Great Lakes through the long holiday weekend.
Going later into the afternoon hours, as the main H500 trough finally begins to slowly move east, more notable perturbations will be displaced out ahead of the main trough axis as it moves over the Four Corners Region. This should provide lift for thunderstorms to develop off the high terrain of NM once again. As the Rex Block holds steady across the eastern 2/3 CONUS, the main H500 trough will move cyclonically up the spine of the Rockies tomorrow afternoon. With the perturbation displaced north in the broad H500 cyclonic flow due to the Rex Block further east, the northern Panhandles may have the higher chance of severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and localized flooding being the main threats.
High pressure will remain over the area today, but its airmass will moderate under strong late May sunshine. Model consensus favors increasing clouds and a low chance for rain showers over the southern tier of CPA on Sunday associated with low pressure system over the Carolinas. Temperatures continue to trend warmer particularly over the northern half of CPA with fcst highs in the upper 70s to low 80s or +5-10F above late May climo. But, dewpoints do eek into the u50s across the S, and the hot temps can pop showers off the ridges when supplied with halfway decent moisture.
Early this morning, a Rex block is in place over the eastern CONUS, with an upper level high centered over the Great Lakes, and a broad double centered low over the Southeast. At the surface, a coastal low was offshore, southeast of the upper low. As the moist, mild air is lifted over the cooler inland air, its being pulled around the mid/upper level circulation. The upper lows will consolidate over the Tennessee Valley by Sunday, as the blocking pattern continues. The moisture wrapping around the mid/upper level low will eventually saturate our column from the top down, and rain should develop/move into the area from the southeast tonight and last into Sunday.
924 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023 The day starts off quiet with mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures in the 70s. (Today through Sunday) South Florida should get a brief reprieve from the active weather this weekend as a deep upper level trough which has persisted over the Florida peninsula over the past few days gradually retreats northeastward. As the trough exits the region, deep-layered drier air will filter in, with models showing PWAT values in the 1. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s around the lake region, to upper 80s over SW FL.
(Today through Sunday Night ) Strong high pressure will bring an east/northeast wind into Arkansas this weekend.
635 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area as a low pressure system meanders around the Mid-South today.
713 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023 (Today through Sunday) South Florida should get a brief reprieve from the active weather this weekend as a deep upper level trough which has persisted over the Florida peninsula over the past few days gradually retreats northeastward. As the trough exits the region, deep-layered drier air will filter in, with models showing PWAT values in the 1. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s around the lake region, to upper 80s over SW FL.
503 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023 Early this morning, a Rex block is in place over the eastern CONUS, with an upper level high centered over the Great Lakes, and a broad double centered low over the Southeast. At the surface, a coastal low was offshore, southeast of the upper low. As the moist, mild air is lifted over the cooler inland air, its being pulled around the mid/upper level circulation. The upper lows will consolidate over the Tennessee Valley by Sunday, as the blocking pattern continues. The moisture wrapping around the mid/upper level low will eventually saturate our column from the top down, and rain should develop/move into the area from the southeast tonight and last into Sunday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area as a low pressure system meanders around the Mid-South today.
619 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023 (Today and tonight) Thunderstorms over the southern Texas panhandle this morning are nearing the apex of a weak upper ridge over west Texas. This is downstream from the larger- scale upper trough over the western coast of the U. Simultaneously, the weak upper ridge over Texas will drift eastward allowing for weak southwesterly flow over Oklahoma later today.
(This evening through Saturday) Upper level ridge axis will remain just west of the area tonight into Saturday. Temperatures will be mild again tonight, with lows in the 60s and highs on Saturday in the low to mid 80s.
738 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023 Mainly dry weather is expected for much of the area through the holiday weekend with high pressure over the Great Lakes region.
(Today and tonight) While there has been some day-to-day variations in weather conditions largely as a result of cloud cover and associated marine layer, a persistent pattern remains in place with an unseasonably cool mid/upper level trough aloft.
Upper level low closed low currently over southern MO will continue moving southward and then shift eastward into northern MS by early evening hours tonight. Well stacked low/upper low pressure system just off northwest SC/southwest NC coastlines will begin to usher in moisture across Upper Cumberland Region late this afternoon where a few showers might be possible. (Sunday Night through next Saturday) As Sunday night into Memorial Day progresses, look for upper level low to shift eastward into Carolinas. As work week progresses, upper level low will push northeastward with a large upper level Omega Block developing across much of contiguous U. This will bring some upper level ridging influences to our area through remainder of work week.
Southwesterly upper level flow continues across the Northern Plain as troughing persists over the Western CONUS.
540 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023 Mainly dry weather is expected for much of the area through the holiday weekend with high pressure over the Great Lakes region.
Model consensus favors increasing clouds and a low chance for rain showers over the southern tier of CPA on Sunday associated with low pressure system over the Carolinas. Temperatures continue to trend warmer particularly over the northern half of CPA with fcst highs in the upper 70s to low 80s or +5-10F above late May climo. But, dewpoints do eek into the u50s across the S, and the hot temps can pop showers off the ridges when supplied with halfway decent moisture.
An upper trough moving through the Pacific Northwest will spin off a closed upper low that will dive down the coast and setup over the central California coast by Sunday. As the upper low drifts south over the region tonight there will remain a small possibility, less than 10 percent, that showers or thunderstorms continue overnight across the interior. Better chances will return once again on Sunday as the low shifts south of the region and west-northwesterly flow develops over Northwest California.
Event total rainfall will approach two inches in some of the higher elevations. Discussion: A cut-off upper level low will pretty much spin in place and remain over the Tennessee Valley through the Holiday weekend. Much of the highlighted area mentioned above is under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. As the low center comes ashore and moves inland across North Carolina, NE winds will increase this evening across the area from SW Virginia into the Tennessee Valley. Because of the influence of the upper level low overhead and overcast skies, temperatures will run cooler this afternoon and a few degrees cooler than that for tomorrow.
648 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023 Moisture from a system along the Atlantic coast will get drawn into the region around a large upper level low.
High pressure continues to dominate the Great Lakes Region, keeping our area in LLVL easterly flow. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s through the day, with nighttime temperatures in the low 50s. Key Message: 1) Unseasonably warm and dry weather continues, as high pressure dominates the region. The beautiful Memorial Day Weekend continues Sunday, as the blocking pattern keeps high pressure situated over the Great Lakes.
A trough positioned along the California Coast will continue to provide drier conditions, breezy afternoon winds, and slightly below average temperatures.
1055 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023 Moisture from a system along the Atlantic coast will get drawn into the region around a large upper level low.
328 AM MDT Sat May 27 2023 SSW flow aloft will remain over the area today into tonight as a rather broad weak upper level trough is over the wrn US. Elsewhere will keep a chc of storms over the higher terrain although activity could end up being more isold than currently fcst.
525 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023 (Today through Sunday Night ) Strong high pressure will bring an east/northeast wind into Arkansas this weekend.
This air will stay with us while a strong upper low which has now cut off from the main upper trough to the NE, settles into the SE CONUS. The upper low will eventually slide east over the Atlantic.
849 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023 Drier air has moved into the area today as the low lifts out, with morning PW down to 1. Slightly cooler air is also in place, with highs this afternoon expected only in the mid to upper 80s and lows tonight falling into the upper 50s north.
1024 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023 Mainly dry weather is expected for much of the area through the holiday weekend with high pressure over the Great Lakes region.
Persistent upper level troughing across the NW CONUS continues to, well, persist across the region.
High pressure continues to influence the weather today with easterly flow keeping very dry conditions in place. The progression of the upper level ridge has continued to be stagnant, stalling out the return of efficient rain to the state for much of this week, but western Iowa may see at least some minor relief from this dry spell.
Our attention has turned to the isolated activity currently developing in the High Plains and eastern Permian Basin as of 2 PM this afternoon.
Just a few lingering echoes still being noted on radar around the Mobridge area this morning, where just some light rain showers may be occurring. On Sunday, a s/w trough is progged to kick out of the northern High Plains/Rockies during the day and into the western Dakotas by afternoon into Sunday evening. The forecast starts off with a ridge aloft over the Great Lakes, and weak troffing over the Northern High Plains.
(Tonight) A rather quiet night is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure prevails. (Sunday through Saturday) Sunday looks to be a mostly dry day across the area as high pressure continues at the surface a subtle ridge aloft nudges into the area.
312 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 A large high pressure to the east keeps upper level easterly flow over the region. Low to midlevel flow continues out of the southeast and south respectively gradually advecting warmer air into the area.
Some concern exists that our Panhandle counties may remain on the cooler/more stable side of the aforementioned outflow boundary which could curb rainfall amounts here, but considering the amount of standing water still being reported over some roads particularly in Castro and Swisher Counties, feel the threat for renewed flooding concerns is credible.
Another short wave with its own upper low over NE AR is expected to rotate cyclonically into the base of the long wave upper low fixed over the SE US. This in turn will affect the track of the tropical low and its associated upper low, taking it slowly NW and absorbing it into the large scale upper low. As next upper wave rotates around into north GA Sunday, moisture not expected to return in time as NW low level winds remain in place, dominated by remnants of tropical low to the NE and larger scale upper low.
1239 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 (The rest of today ) Region remains under the influence of a slow moving upper low centered near Memphis this morning.
Thus, although guidance generally is a few degrees warmer than last night, still pulled down temperatures for the cooler spots in the area such as Washington Island and portions of the northwoods. Sunday Night Through Saturday The extended pattern will largely see a broad upper ridge stretched over central CONUS, preventing any large shifts in airmass.
113 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023 (Today through Sunday) South Florida should get a brief reprieve from the active weather this weekend as a deep upper level trough which has persisted over the Florida peninsula over the past few days gradually retreats northeastward. As the trough exits the region, deep-layered drier air will filter in, with models showing PWAT values in the 1. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s around the lake region, to upper 80s over SW FL.
133 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023 High pressure will remain firmly in place across the Great Lakes through the long holiday weekend.
Other than a narrow stream of showers moving inland along the coast, it should be a warm and quiet afternoon and evening across South Texas as subsidence persists beneath a mid level ridge. The mid level ridge will maintain warm and mostly dry conditions across much of the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads area on Sunday. On Sunday night a mid level trough will begin to develop over the northeastern Mexican state of Coahuila, triggering widespread showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra Madre.
1225 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023 Mainly dry weather is expected for much of the area through the holiday weekend with high pressure over the Great Lakes region.
254 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a mid-level anticyclone centered in the vcnty of far eastern Upper MI.
242 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023 High pressure will remain firmly in place across the Great Lakes through the long holiday weekend.
245 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Key Messages: * Splendid rest of the Memorial Day weekend with dry conditions and large diurnal temperature ranges Tranquil weather persists across much of the Midwest thanks to sprawling Canadian high pressure of 1026 mb centered over the Great Lakes. A nearly identical regime is on tap for Sunday, although 850 mb temperatures are forecast about 3C warmer, and surface temperatures and dew points should accordingly be a little higher too.
The northern MCS, which will develop across northeastern Colorado will be tied to the actual mid level trough axis, which will continue to lift northeast from the Colorado-Utah border into Wyoming. Going into Sunday, the remnants of the CO-UT-WY trough will be pushing across Nebraska along with the remnants of the subtropical jet pushing across the Southern Plains. The surface leeside trough will remain in place as a result of the continued mid level, albeit fairly weak, westerlies. Low level moisture will certainly be adequate to support sustained strong/severe thunderstorm activity with one or two small MCSs probably evolving out of the activity late Sunday evening/Sunday night, as 850mb moisture transport vectors will be quite good all across the High Plains.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Water vapor imagery shows a Rex block pattern east of the state; featuring a mid to upper level cutoff low positioned over the Lower Tennessee Valley/Southern Plains with a ridge positioned over the Great Lakes region. Weaker influence from the upper level ridge and increased cloud cover should hinder afternoon heating, keeping temperatures down by a degree or so compared to Saturday.
To the east, an upper-level low continues to slowly drift southward along the Lower MS Valley with convection ongoing across much of northern MS and even into parts of NE LA.
As freezing levels are low with cooler temperatures aloft there will be potential for some storms to be strong with main threats being high winds, hail and heavy localized downpours of up to 2in. Tomorrow rains from Saturday and cooler low temperatures will allow for localized patchy fog to form overnight going into the morning around the region. Tomorrow is looking to be much of the same as today, as the upper low moves east so does the area for potential showers and storms as they will be more north/northeast.
138 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023 The area of low pressure continues to lift out away from the area today, with drier and cooler air in place across the local area.
As an upper level low moves east through the region this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will spread over portions of northeast Mississippi and into west Tennessee. ARS Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area as a low pressure system meanders around the Mid-South today.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will persist mainly over portions of north Mississippi this evening as an upper level low pressure system moves east out of the region.
304 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Complex blocking pattern aloft continues across much of the conus with Kansas situated in a virtual col between the Rex type block over the eastern conus (high over the Great Lakes and a couple of lows over the Southeast, then ridge axis over the southern high Plains and mean trof over the West into the Rockies. The southern extent of this feature/lift will shift eastward also helping to advect the higher precipitable water(PWAT)/instability axis over the high Plains into central Kansas.
1015 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Just a few lingering echoes still being noted on radar around the Mobridge area this morning, where just some light rain showers may be occurring. On Sunday, a s/w trough is progged to kick out of the northern High Plains/Rockies during the day and into the western Dakotas by afternoon into Sunday evening. The forecast starts off with a ridge aloft over the Great Lakes, and weak troffing over the Northern High Plains.
The upper level pattern will see ridging over the Great Lakes with a trough over the Rockies. At the surface, the pattern will generally be the same with high pressure to the west and an elongated area of low pressure over the Rockies.
Continued high pressure influence will cause high temperatures to soar towards the upper 80s to low 90s by mid to late in the week.