Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Attention tomorrow will then turn towards the cold frontal passage as it swings through the area.
Ridging present at all levels was just to our northeast at mid afternoon, and departing in that direction. As this was occurring, a largely stacked low pressure system was centered over Mississippi. The northeastward shift of the regime will continue, with what's left of the low passing over the central Appalachians Friday night. Ridge/valley differences should become less pronounced. Weak high pressure will slowly nudge in from the west with WAA taking over through the day ahead of an approaching cold front.
337 PM MDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Continue to watch the broad trough over the Northern Rockies push east into the area. There has been a consistent band of heavier rain and show across the central zones this morning and early afternoon, on the leading side of the trough. As the trough continues to move east and the mid-level low pressure moves northeast, expecting the precipitation to push farther north and east. Bridges and overpasses will be the mostly likely areas for the development of black ice. Temperatures will remain cooler, with highs in the 40s.
Chance for light showers in the southern Tennessee valley late this afternoon, gradually spreading across the whole area tonight and with the unstable airmass near the upper low more showers and thunderstorms will occur through the day Friday. Discussion: A weakening upper low will shift north northeast tonight and Friday with ridging to the northeast also departing tonight ahead of the upper low. Temperatures at mid afternoon were in the lower to mid 70s south to upper 70s and lower 80s northeast. On Friday, the upper low moves northeast over the forecast area. The storms will be more likely in the southwest before 18Z and after 18Z in the northeast as the upper low shifts northeast during the day.
This evening, the air should saturate enough with the trough passage to have some showers begin to form in SE ND and slowly spread north and eastward.
Morning lows are expected to be in the middle 50s with highs tomorrow in the low to middle 70s.
736 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 A decaying low pressure system moves north into the Ohio Valley bringing increased cloud coverage and the chance for rain and a rumble of thunder on Friday. Another low pressure arrives over the weekend, bringing additional chances for rain and thunderstorms. The closed low pressure system that has been impacting the Gulf Coast begins to decay and be absorbed into the larger flow.
It's been a warm day across the region, with temperature obs reporting in the upper 70s and low 80s as high pressure continues to dominate the forecast. Clouds have stayed mainly to our south in association with the large upper low across the Deep South, though some harmless cirrus have quietly streamed into the region from the south. However, soundings suggest the low level dry air will be rather persistent, so may only see some virga for tonight across far south-central KY. For tomorrow, isolated to scattered showers will be possible as the upper low tracks from central Tennessee through eastern Kentucky. Best precip chances will be east of I-65, and along with dewpoints possibly reaching the low 60s over the Bluegrass, we may be able to realize some marginal instability during the afternoon.
651 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure across most of the eastern United States will maintain dry and warmer weather through Friday.
651 PM MDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Light snow has been gradually decreasing over western and central zones early this evening as a trough lifts north and east through the region. STP Continue to watch the broad trough over the Northern Rockies push east into the area. There has been a consistent band of heavier rain and show across the central zones this morning and early afternoon, on the leading side of the trough. As the trough continues to move east and the mid-level low pressure moves northeast, expecting the precipitation to push farther north and east. Bridges and overpasses will be the mostly likely areas for the development of black ice. Temperatures will remain cooler, with highs in the 40s.
742 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure continues to control the weather pattern across the forecast area through Friday.
Southwesterly flow, ahead of a trough centered over the Great Basin, has induced gusty winds across northern Arizona today. As the trough moves east this weekend, Arizona enters a warmer period.
105 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 High pressure continues to control the weather pattern across the forecast area through Friday.
Meanwhile high pressure will ridge west from well out in the Atlantic Ocean across the Florida peninsula today with the south to southwest flow persisting. The high will remain in place through Saturday with light winds shifting to onshore as the sea breeze develops in the afternoon.
Highest instability will be over the CNTRL Mountains which will even support a slight chance for thunderstorms (15 percent or less) with 150 to 350 J/kg of CAPE, 20 to 40 kt of 0 to 6 km shear, and a favorable location in the baroclinic boundary between our incoming ridge of high pressure to the west and the trough itself.
1108 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure will remain in control through Friday. Weak low pressure will then approach from the southwest Friday night into Saturday, and pass south of the area Saturday night, keeping an associated warm front to the south.
High pressure overhead will result in light winds today and continued near-record high temperatures. Saturday will be similar today as the trend in the models to delay the cold front continues.
A pre-frontal trough will push into the area Saturday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Clouds will begin to clear out and dewpoints will drop behind the pre-frontal trough, particularly across the Rio Grande Plains and the western Brush Country.
329 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Slow upper trough progression across the area in the short term, with an overrunning type scenario thanks to low pressure to the south and cooler low level flow out of the north. Upper trough axis looks to be over the eastern CWA Saturday night, with the core of coldest air overhead as well.
to the lower 80s across western MO. Cloud cover will also keep temps a little warmer tonight across IL with cooler temps in MO. Auten A change is expected for the weekend and beyond as trough and low pressure system develops and moves across the region. Late Friday night, the system will being developing out in the plains as the trough digs in the eastern Rockies. As the low pressure area deepens and becomes more cutoff, showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase and become likely Saturday afternoon and continue through Sat night.
- Much cooler saturday night with some snow mixing in with rain as temperatures fall into the middle 30s. Unseasonably warm conditions will continue Friday with the area still under the influence of broad upper ridging.
Rain is pretty much along and north of the boundary with lift from the low in northern Mississippi. This low will slowly slide east through the morning, before exiting to the east after sunset.
335 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 An impending storm system will bring some volatility to the region this weekend with thunderstorm activity becoming more active Saturday evening along and ahead of a cold front.
1220 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 High pressure across most of the eastern United States will maintain dry and warmer weather through Friday. Shower chances return Friday night and Saturday as weak low pressure crosses the area.
203 AM MDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Broad split trough over the Rockies will slide east today. While the main vorticity has exited to the northeast overnight, the trough axis will provide lift aided by diurnal instability this afternoon, mainly over the western section of our CWA through the afternoon and evening. A few inches of wet snow may accumulate over the high country. unstable cyclonic flow will remain over the northeast third of our CWA while dry high pressure builds into the west.
326 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 An upper level low brings the return of showers today through Saturday evening.
137 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 A decaying low pressure system moves north into the Ohio Valley bringing increased cloud coverage and the chance for rain and a rumble of thunder on Friday. Another low pressure arrives over the weekend, bringing additional chances for rain and thunderstorms. The closed low pressure system that has been impacting the Gulf ultimately opening up into a wave as it is carried northeast. a deepening, soon to be negatively tilted, low pressure system.
100 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) The strong low pressure system across the northern Gulf works further into the Southeast into tonight as a weak 500mb ridge builds across Texas. Southeasterly winds persist into tonight and Friday, as low pressure develops across the Plains.
The lower levels will remain dry, albeit with dew points rising into the 50s. As the upper low moves into the Appalachians and opens up overnight, a weak ridge will move into the Wabash Valley. Meanwhile, with dew points in the 50s and light south winds, overnight lows tonight will not get any cooler than the mid 50s.
High temperatures will continue to rise over the weekend as the upper-level ridge moves inland from the eastern Pacific Ocean, although highs are generally expected to remain just below 80 degrees for the warmest locations.
931 PM PDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Cool, windy, and gloomy weather will persist tonight as a low pressure system pushes through the West. High pressure will build in behind the exiting low pressure system, with a warming trend in store Friday through the weekend.
However, an upper low over northern Mississippi and Alabama early this morning will track northeast across the Tennessee Valley and into the Smokey Mountains by this evening. Moisture wrapping around the low will be enough to yield a small chance of showers across southwest Indiana, much of western Kentucky, and far southeast Illinois this afternoon.
336 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 An upper level low brings the return of showers today through Saturday evening.
327 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 A warm front will advance north into the area on today, ahead of low pressure center that will cross the southern and central Appalachians tonight and early Saturday.
1231 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 (This evening through Friday) Elevated Fire Weather conditions expected Friday afternoon, under warmer and drier conditions. While still under some weak upper-level ridging across West Central Texas, overnight low temperatures are expected to only fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s, before rebounding into the mid 80s to lower 90s by Friday afternoon.
1212 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 (Tonight) Warmer temperatures are expected across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas tonight as a southerly breeze persists through the night.
- Much cooler Saturday with northwest wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph.
Showers have remained in the solid snow state through much of the day, as temperatures have struggled to climb much above freezing in those western valleys and the Cody Foothills. the trough completely exits the region by Saturday afternoon, and ridging will begin to build behind it.
Another cold front moves through Saturday, bringing a slight chance (at least 15%) of scattered strong to severe storms in the afternoon and evening hours across the Mid-South.
(This evening through Friday) Busy short term on tap with a Tornado Watch ongoing across south central Georgia as banding from the low pressure system over MS/AL swaps over the area. Main severe weather potential should remain mostly confined to central Georgia as a cells deepen along a warm front boundary over the area, with SPC highlighting a corridor of Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) along and between I-75 and I-16. Overall, expect rain to continue on and off through tomorrow as the low pressure system meanders NE into N AL, eventually making its way into NW GA by Friday evening.
Passage of the upper level trough north of the area will allow a cold front to drop into the Southern Plains, likely reaching into the northern Big Country by sunrise Saturday morning.
The latest sfc analysis depicts a cold front near the NE/SD border, lifting northeastward as a warm front across portions of northeastern WY. Owing to persistent cloud cover, which is preventing the mixing out of a nocturnal boundary layer, temperatures over much of western SD are in the 40s and 50s, with some 60s across south central SD, northeastern WY, and over the higher terrain of the Black Hills. A secondary cold front arriving this evening into tonight will bring a reinforcing shot of cool air and breezy northwest winds tomorrow. Cooler air remains over the region on Saturday before 850 mb temps rebound late in the weekend.
1157 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 A ridge of high pressure will maintain dry conditions with only increasing cirrus Friday as a weakening upper low pressure system brushes the area to the south/southeast. Light southeast to south winds of 10 knots or less can be expected as the aforementioned ridge shift into the eastern Great Lakes.
Discussion: Well defined upper level low is currently situated across northern Mississippi this morning. This upper low will continue to move toward the northeast today. Areas of showers are expected to increase in coverage later this morning as moisture increases associated with the upper low. Showers and storms will be quick to move out this evening and overnight as the upper low pulls north of the area. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday but still warm with highs in the lower 70's.
(Today and tonight) As an upper level trough approaches the Great Plains today, lee cyclogenesis in southeast Colorado will lead to breezy west- southwest winds this afternoon. A quick moving cold front will begin to dive through the forecast area very late tonight shifting winds to the north.
A ridge of high pressure will prevail through the remainder of today allowing for dry conditions across the FA. The dewpoint depression is now 30-40 degrees across many locations! For Friday, a H5 closed low will move across the southeast CONUS and will weaken into an open wave. Combined with a theta-e axis over western portions of the FA with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, the ingredients will be in place to support a few strong to severe storms, especially Saturday night as the CIN slowly erodes.
903 PM MDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Snow will gradually diminish over the area this evening, into the overnight as a trough lifts north and east through the region. STP Continue to watch the broad trough over the Northern Rockies push east into the area. There has been a consistent band of heavier rain and show across the central zones this morning and early afternoon, on the leading side of the trough. As the trough continues to move east and the mid-level low pressure moves northeast, expecting the precipitation to push farther north and east. Bridges and overpasses will be the mostly likely areas for the development of black ice. Temperatures will remain cooler, with highs in the 40s. Saturday will drier as a ridge starts to build in.
300 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Largely a persistence forecast today as SE MI remains under the influence of eastern CONUS upper level ridging.
(Today through Saturday) Well-defined low pressure system is currently located over North Mississippi and will continue its trek northeastward across our area today. Tomorrow temps will be much warmer, with most of the area reaching the 80s.
152 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 An upper level low brings the return of showers Friday through Saturday evening.
1029 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 (This evening through Friday) A longwave mid-level trough, centered from the Desert Southwest to the Pacific Northwest, will continue to move upstream of the Southern Plains overnight and into tomorrow. The surface response will be lee troughing along the Rockies, and an increase in southerly winds over the entire forecast area throughout the day. Warm air advection in the low levels will strong throughout the day.
342 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 A warm front will advance north into the area on today, ahead of low pressure center that will cross the southern and central Appalachians tonight and early Saturday.
Meanwhile as the cold front drops southward later in the evening we may see additional activity develop in a zipper-like fashion as the cold front overtakes the dryline from north to south through the evening hours. Some post- frontal showers and storms will remain possible with ascent from the approaching mid/upper trough with activity diminishing from west to east after midnight.
309 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Broad, closed upper low continues to lift northeast this morning and will gradually open as it is recaptured by the westerlies. Dry slotting working around the base and western periphery of the upper low will lead to warming mid levels and capping. Tonight, a building ridge over the area will lead to light to calm boundary layer winds leading to an increased potential for fog development which may become locally dense fog inland late tonight into early Saturday. Slightly drier airmass trailing the departing upper low will lead to cooler conditions overnight with lows around 60. Conditions will begin to shift late night Saturday as high pressure ridging influencing the region moves off to the northeast and being replaced with a moist southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front from out of the west.
404 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Key Messages: * A cold front moving across the area will bring a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
604 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 (Today) Most guidance moves the upper low in a general easterly direction, but not very quickly over the next 6 hours. Early Friday morning into the afternoon hours the upper low moves more quickly east or northeastward. However, shear near the center of the low and on the western side of it looks very weak.
A weak upper level low is rotating northeast into northern Alabama this morning. The lower levels need a bit more time to saturate, but SSE winds continue to gradually advect moisture into the region. The weakening area of low pressure will continue northeast across the TN Valley and into the central Appalachians today. So have the highest storm chances in the Bluegrass Region this afternoon with rain/storm chances gradually tapering off from east to west. Temperatures today will top out in the low to mid 70s in most places. Tonight looks mainly dry with the upper low pulling away from the forecast area. Key message: severe storm chances have decreased A stray shower will be possible Saturday as the aforementioned upper trough pulls away, but by and large the bulk of the day will be characterized by rising heights and warm, dry weather.
617 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Slow upper trough progression across the area in the short term, with an overrunning type scenario thanks to low pressure to the south and cooler low level flow out of the north. Upper trough axis looks to be over the eastern CWA Saturday night, with the core of coldest air overhead as well.
Highs are forecast to reach the lower 90s out west and mid 80s for the rest of the CWA. NBM was the warmest while a few of the other models were almost 5 degrees cooler. Tonight, skies become mostly cloudy keeping us warm in the lower 70s again. A pre-frontal trough is forecast to move through Saturday morning ahead of the front. Looking at a GFS RH/wind cross section across the BRO CWA, the pre-frontal trough will keep 700mb winds out of the southwest for most of the day.
956 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 An upper level low brings the return of showers today through Saturday evening.
642 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 A warm front will advance north into the area on today, ahead of low pressure center that will cross the southern and central Appalachians tonight and early Saturday.
(Today) Most guidance moves the upper low in a general easterly direction, but not very quickly over the next 6 hours. Early Friday morning into the afternoon hours the upper low moves more quickly east or northeastward. However, shear near the center of the low and on the western side of it looks very weak.
920 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 High pressure across most of the eastern United States will maintain dry and warmer weather for one last day Shower chances return tonight and Saturday as weak low pressure crosses the area.
Low pressure heading from the TN valley to the Atlantic coast supplies additional high clouds tonight while wind becomes light and variable between systems into Saturday morning. Largely a persistence forecast today as SE MI remains under the influence of eastern CONUS upper level ridging.
1015 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 A warm front will advance north into the area today, ahead of low pressure center that will cross the southern and central Appalachians tonight and early Saturday.
A general trough will move through today and spark off scattered showers, some of which could be a mixture of snow and graupel. The showers will dissipate by 10 pm this evening as a ridge of high pressure starts to build into the region.
Water vapor imagery highlights a mid to upper-level low moving northeast into the Appalachians, a long-wave trough spreading east across the Rockies, and a southern-stream short wave sliding across the Yucatan. The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled rising heights at all levels, mainly due to the departing low in the Southeast and the western expansion of the low-level ridging. On-the-whole the profile does not look horrible for developing moist congestus this afternoon, especially in the lee of the Lower Keys. Light to gentle southeast breezes will continue today as weak high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.
Meanwhile, the positioning of the 500 mb trough upstream of northwest low level flow over western North Dakota could generate widely scattered light rain showers across the western half of the state later this afternoon and evening. An additional band of light rain or snow is possible in northwest North Dakota later tonight as the approaching 500 mb trough interacts with a lower level wave pivoting over the area.
Cold front entirely through southeast Wyoming at this time and is just about to clear Cheyenne County in the southern Panhandle.
621 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 (Today and tonight) As an upper level trough approaches the Great Plains today, lee cyclogenesis in southeast Colorado will lead to breezy west- southwest winds this afternoon. A quick moving cold front will begin to dive through the forecast area very late tonight shifting winds to the north.
Rain chances will diminish today as a cut-off upper level low moves away from the Mid-South. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday into Saturday night as an upper-level trough and associated cold front move through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
This is expected to continue throughout Friday as an upper low will cross the region, producing numerous showers and a few thunderstorms.
608 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Rain chances will diminish today as a cut-off upper level low moves away from the Mid-South. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday into Saturday night as an upper-level trough and associated cold front move through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
(Rest of Today) A cool, mainly overcast day will be in store for the Tennessee Valley region as an area of low pressure slowly pushes northward across the region.
654 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 (Today through Saturday) Well-defined low pressure system is currently located over North Mississippi and will continue its trek northeastward across our area today. Tomorrow temps will be much warmer, with most of the area reaching the 80s.
143 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Aviation Had a discussion with the DNR earlier and despite the lower wind speeds today they feel that a Red Flag Warning is still desirable across the Manistee National Forest and portions of west central/central Lwr MI. High pressure overhead will result in light winds today and continued near-record high temperatures. Saturday will be similar today as the trend in the models to delay the cold front continues.