Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temps will steadily warm through the day with daytime highs topping out in the low to mid 70's. High pressure builds in over the southeast U. Another cold front will approach the area on Wednesday and produce increasing SE-SW winds ahead of the front as well as scattered showers and storms through the day on Wednesday. Gusty winds, waterspouts and dangerous lightning will be possible ahead of and in the vicinity of the cold front.
today will shift seaward this evening and overnight with the approach of a low pressure system, with trailing cold front that will push into the western FL Panhandle by sunrise Wed morning. Initial easterly flow will veer more southeasterly tonight as a weak warm front advances northward across the central peninsula. However, the pressure gradient tightens again this evening/overnight and veering SERLY winds increase back to 15-20 kts offshore as a warm front ventures from south to north, so Cautionary Statements likely necessary again this evening/overnight. Generally VFR conds as high pressure over the SE US shifts into the western Atlc. Moisture increases ahead of the next approaching cold front, with an increase in cloudiness into tonight.
Snow will generally favor the higher terrain of the eastern and southeastern highlands when this moves through but can't rule out a bit of very light snow across portions of the Snake Plain as well although this isn't explicitly mentioned in the current forecast. Accumulations across the highlands should be light, generally an inch or less, although 1-2 inches across some of the highest peaks will be possible. Temperatures area wide remain on the cooler side of normal with lingering valley stratus/fog in the AM across the Snake Plain keeping things in the upper teens to lower 20s for daytime highs.
- Cold returns for the weekend, lasting into start of Feb * LIGHT SNOW WED: light to minor accumulations Upper level trough still slated to move northeast out of the southern plains tonight, working across the OH River valley on Wed.
(The rest of today ) Upper low currently over W Texas will continue to lift NE today, with initial rain chances transitioning to all snow across E OK by late morning or early afternoon.
The upper low will continue to move east/northeast across North Texas (along the Red River) this evening into western Arkansas overnight. Minor travel impacts are still expected north and northwest of the DFW Metroplex where temperatures will be near or just below freezing overnight. Where accumulating snowfall remains, high temperatures may only reach the lower 40s as a considerable portion of afternoon insolation works to melt/sublimate the snow. In any event, the bulk of the day will be above freezing, and the sunshine and stored heat within the ground should be sufficient to remove all but the most shaded/sheltered patches.
Showers and thunderstorms will then precede a Wednesday night cold front.
(This evening through Wednesday night) As of the latest 18Z observations across the Panhandles, on the backside of an elongated H500 low pressure system based off the RAP analysis, there is a another band of snow that has developed. Going into tomorrow morning, as temperatures start below freezing, any untreated roadways and/or packed snow from vehicles along with overpasses with our higher water content snowfall event, this could result in some black ice to develop and cause some slick spots for the Wednesday morning commute. Overall, dry conditions return to the Panhandles as NW surface flow on the backside of the departing low pressure system.
Current synoptic setup consists of high pressure over Manitoba and Ontario and an area of low pressure over North Dakota.
Dry and cool conditions prevail across the region through the week, with lingering north breezes primarily in the lower Colorado River Valley.
Current synoptic setup consists of high pressure over Manitoba and Ontario and an area of low pressure over North Dakota. Troughing remains over the area 12z Sun into 12z Tue. The lake effect snow showers will continue to dwindle this afternoon, but the low stratus deck will remain.
212 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday) A pleasant afternoon will begin to become increasingly cloudy as a cold front approaches the area.
A meager moisture surge and a subtle wind shift to the east- southeast is maintaining a broken swath of light showers which is pushing through the Lower Keys right now. Small Craft Advisory may be required tonight across the Straits of Florida High pressure will move quickly across the Southeastern states today and into the western Atlantic tonight, as another cold front pushes east across the Lower Mississippi Valley and the central Gulf of Mexico.
Water vapor imagery highlights mean-layer ridging to the east of the Bahamas, a broad expanse of dry and stable air over Central America, and a tornadic mid-latitude storm system over Texas. A pesky swath of light showers is now west-northwest of the Lower Keys, after dropping legitimate episodes of drizzly rain across the island chain. Temperatures nearly reached 80 for some communities, with dewpoints creeping into the lower 70s, several degrees higher than this morning.
Temperatures just above freezing so not likely to present much in the way of difficulties but as it continues into the early evening hours, there may be a brief window where a few icy spots can develop as temperatures drop a few degrees with sunset and the snow continues. Upper level low exits overnight and clouds will begin to clear from west to east across the area. This will allow temperatures to drop overnight and will likely see below freezing readings by morning across most of the area. Will need to be alert for black ice redeveloping by morning, but with temperatures only in the upper 20s and ground temperatures what they are, this may be a concern mainly for bridges and overpasses. Cool tomorrow but at least warmer than today.
(Tonight) The overall wx pattern will begin to change quite a bit this evening, as gusty winds/rainfall increase quickly ahead of an area of low pressure and attendant cold front approaching from the SW. This potent system will be driven by a sharp upper low/trough pattern diving into the southern Plains states late this afternoon into tonight. As the upper low/trough axis begins to lift NE into the Midwest states by early Wed, SSW winds will strengthen into the 20-25 MPH range with gusts near 40-45 MPH at times, especially in the higher terrain. Given the increase in cloud cover/rainfall, lows will struggle to fall much past the lower 40s for most spots.
A dry northerly flow aloft will continue today as a high-amplitude upper ridge resides off the coast.
(This evening through Wednesday) Snowfall has become light over the past several hours with overall coverage decreasing from west to east as the upper low continues to move across West Texas. Snow will clear the Caprock before 00Z and clear the Rolling Plains at least by midnight as the upper low moves over central Oklahoma/North Texas.
Still, a very windy night is in store for the entire area with gusts of 40-50 mph and perhaps even higher up to 55 mph across the Plateau thanks to the higher elevation and the core of the LLJ passing directly overhead.
Pleasant weather is expected today with mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures in the low to mid 70's this afternoon. Cloud cover will increase overnight ahead of the next cold front expected to move through on Wednesday. By mid-morning on Wednesday, upper troughing digs southward through the central U. as an area of low pressure develops near the TN/MS/AL border. The associated cold front extends south into the Gulf of Mexico and will approach the Florida peninsula bringing showers and storms to the region all day on Wednesday.
Latest hi-res models so much more ascent associated with this brief system, and with still lingering lapse rates approaching ~8, heavier snow showers are expected, with higher confidence in accumulating snowfall in the higher hills of southeast MT. Snowfall amounts have continued to trend upward, with now the higher hills of all of far SE MT, and even Sheridan County seeing potential to receive 1-3 inches of snow.
1245 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023 A warm front will move north of the area tonight but the weather will be dry. today will shift seaward this evening and overnight with the approach of a low pressure system, with trailing cold front that will push into the western FL Panhandle by sunrise Wed morning. Initial easterly flow will veer more southeasterly tonight as a weak warm front advances northward across the central peninsula. However, the pressure gradient tightens again this evening/overnight and veering SERLY winds increase back to 15-20 kts offshore as a warm front ventures from south to north, so Cautionary Statements likely necessary again this evening/overnight.
1033 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2023 A short wave mid-level trough in northwest flow moving into an area of difluent flow aloft will generate isolated to scattered light snow showers today. Expect cooler temperatures for most areas today as cold air advection continues, though inverted valleys may not experience any change.
Otherwise, temperatures are not expected to fall back much more this morning, bottoming out in the lower 20s across most of the area under a blanket of lake clouds. Troughing remains over the area 12z Sun into 12z Tue. The lake effect snow showers will continue to dwindle this afternoon, but the low stratus deck will remain.
1134 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 (The rest of today ) Upper low currently over W Texas will continue to lift NE today, with initial rain chances transitioning to all snow across E OK by late morning or early afternoon.
A couple of distinct areas of rain/snow exist currently, with a narrow region of mostly snow associated with mid level frontogenesis very near the Kansas border weakening and the larger region south of I-44 immediately ahead of the upper low in southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Surface temperatures beneath the heavier precipitation in southeast Oklahoma and into west central Arkansas are hovering near freezing, and as such, continue to support accumulating snow. This forecast will continue to show heavy snow through the evening with the highest amounts from east central and southeast Oklahoma northeastward into northwest Arkansas. Much of northeast Oklahoma continues to have temperatures a few degrees above freezing, largely due to the lack of heavier precpitation earlier today.
A clipper system will move through tonight and phase with a much stronger low pressure system that will track well south and east of the area. Some locally higher amounts will be possible as highlighted by some of the higher resolution models.
The low is forecast to track from Western TN/KY Wednesday morning to just east of Cleveland by evening.
1037 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2023 Water vapor shows northern stream trof working through the Northern Plains with southern stream upper low over southwestern NM. At the surface, trof is crossing the western Dakotas.
The dry slot was working its way into southeast OK and southwest AR, with a fairly broad wrap-around band in the deformation zone to the N-NE of the upper low center over north TX, covering much of central and eastern OK.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) A pleasant afternoon will begin to become increasingly cloudy as a cold front approaches the area.
A couple of distinct areas of rain/snow exist currently, with a narrow region of mostly snow associated with mid level frontogenesis very near the Kansas border weakening and the larger region south of I-44 immediately ahead of the upper low in southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Surface temperatures beneath the heavier precipitation in southeast Oklahoma and into west central Arkansas are hovering near freezing, and as such, continue to support accumulating snow. This forecast will continue to show heavy snow through the evening with the highest amounts from east central and southeast Oklahoma northeastward into northwest Arkansas. Much of northeast Oklahoma continues to have temperatures a few degrees above freezing, largely due to the lack of heavier precipitation earlier today.
In addition to snow squalls, quickly falling temperatures behind the trough will lead to flash freezing of any precipitation that may have melted before sunset.
During the overnight hours, the upper trough axis over the Northwestern Plains is forecasted to swing around and through the rest of the Plains which will bring some slightly cooler air and additional cloud cover to the area.
454 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2023 This morning's mid-level trough has nearly exited the region to our east-southeast, visible via satellite imagery by the swath of cirrus clouds slowly shifting across the Divide. Over the next 24 hours, the Uintas have the highest forecast snow total with a whopping 3 to 6 inches.
(This evening through Wednesday) Precipitation continues across large portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas as the upper level trough and closed cyclone continues to shift northeastward through the region. Radar indicates bands of heavy snow are likely occuring through portions of central and southeastern Oklahoma, enhanced by the northeastern portions of the upper-level cyclone. While snowfall tends to be heavy at time, accumulations continue to be fairly light due to marginally freezing temperatures (~32 degrees F) at the surface as well as warm soil temperatures (~39-43 degrees F).
High pressure centered off the mid Atlantic coast extends over the Florida peninsula but will be exiting to the east on Wednesday. A strong cold front will push across the Lower Mississippi Valley and western Florida panhandle tonight. The return flow of moisture ahead of the approaching cold front will also create potential for areas of low ceilings to develop late tonight and early tomorrow morning. U/L dynamics will be pulling away from the forecast area as the cold front moves across the region Wednesday night. Breezy conditions will develop ahead of the approaching cold front at all terminals, with strongest winds expected at PIE/SRQ/TPA/LAL with gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible.
A brief transition back to rain is not unlikely, but what is expected is the secondary transition to snow this evening once again as the low drifts eastward over the next several hours. Into the evening and overnight, as the low shifts NE of the FA, stronger winds from the west and northwest will prevail again. Winds of 15-25 mph with gusts upward to 40 mph will be possible under the tightening gradient of the low.
528 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) As of the latest 18Z observations across the Panhandles, on the backside of an elongated H500 low pressure system based off the RAP analysis, there is a another band of snow that has developed. Going into tomorrow morning, as temperatures start below freezing, any untreated roadways and/or packed snow from vehicles along with overpasses with our higher water content snowfall event, this could result in some black ice to develop and cause some slick spots for the Wednesday morning commute. Overall, dry conditions return to the Panhandles as NW surface flow on the backside of the departing low pressure system.
Upper-level ridging will be the main feature for much of the week. But, conditions could become more unsettled towards the weekend as troughing digs into the area.
Otherwise, a cold air mass remains in place but slightly warmer temperatures are expected later in the week along with dry conditions.
* A cold front will bring a small chance for flurries to areas primarily west of highway 81 Wednesday, along with modestly cooler temperatures.
616 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Precipitation continues across large portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas as the upper level trough and closed cyclone continues to shift northeastward through the region. Radar indicates bands of heavy snow are likely occuring through portions of central and southeastern Oklahoma, enhanced by the northeastern portions of the upper-level cyclone. While snowfall tends to be heavy at time, accumulations continue to be fairly light due to marginally freezing temperatures (~32 degrees F) at the surface as well as warm soil temperatures (~39-43 degrees F).
603 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 (Tonight) The overall wx pattern will begin to change quite a bit this evening, as gusty winds/rainfall increase quickly ahead of an area of low pressure and attendant cold front approaching from the SW. This potent system will be driven by a sharp upper low/trough pattern diving into the southern Plains states late this afternoon into tonight. As the upper low/trough axis begins to lift NE into the Midwest states by early Wed, SSW winds will strengthen into the 20-25 MPH range with gusts near 40-45 MPH at times, especially in the higher terrain. Given the increase in cloud cover/rainfall, lows will struggle to fall much past the lower 40s for most spots.
Accumulations will remain light for the lower elevations.
Heading into Wednesday night, hi-res models continue to show an upper trough axis tracking east across the ArkLaTex region towards the Lower Mississippi Valley. This should allow for cooler weather to prevail across our CWA for the next several days.
231 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2023 This morning's mid-level trough has nearly exited the region to our east-southeast, visible via satellite imagery by the swath of cirrus clouds slowly shifting across the Divide. Over the next 24 hours, the Uintas have the highest forecast snow total with a whopping 3 to 6 inches.
530 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Snowfall has become light over the past several hours with overall coverage decreasing from west to east as the upper low continues to move across West Texas. Snow will clear the Caprock before 00Z and clear the Rolling Plains at least by midnight as the upper low moves over central Oklahoma/North Texas.
The upper low will continue to move east/northeast across North Texas (along the Red River) this evening into western Arkansas overnight. Minor travel impacts are still expected north and northwest of the DFW Metroplex where temperatures will be near or just below freezing overnight.
Sunny skies and dry weather continue today for interior Northern California as strong upper ridging continues to build over the eastern Pacific.
Our disturbance will exit the region by later this afternoon, well away from here by late-evening with high pressure expected in wake of our departing low. Tomorrow will be slightly milder due to added sunshine, but northerly flow will lock in cooler temperatures as northerly component will be moving atop a formidable snowpack located over the Caprock up to the Red River.
1055 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 (Tonight) A potent upper trough will begin to take on a negative tilt overnight, signifying further intensification as it swings across the ArkLaMiss region. Some locations across the higher terrain east of I-65 could see gusts over 50mph at times, and we will continue to monitor obs and trends in case an upgrade is needed. Moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms are expected overnight, ahead of a cold front that will spawn severe storms well to our south. The only big change made to the overnight forecast was adjusting the lows up a few degrees, as temperatures currently range from the upper 40s to lower 50s and should not drop much overnight with the strong warm air advection in place.
Current satellite imagery shows a powerful low pressure system exiting the region this morning.
(Tonight) A potent upper trough will begin to take on a negative tilt overnight, signifying further intensification as it swings across the ArkLaMiss region. Some locations across the higher terrain east of I-65 could see gusts over 50mph at times, and we will continue to monitor obs and trends in case an upgrade is needed. Moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms are expected overnight, ahead of a cold front that will spawn severe storms well to our south. The only big change made to the overnight forecast was adjusting the lows up a few degrees, as temperatures currently range from the upper 40s to lower 50s and should not drop much overnight with the strong warm air advection in place.
There is some concern for refreezing on roads (mainly on elevated surfaces; 2-inch soil temperatures are still in the upper 30s to lower 40s) this morning as temperatures dip into the mid to upper 20s across much of western Oklahoma and western north Texas (with this decrease in temperatures being primarily advection driven). By late morning, however, the whole forecast area should be at or above freezing.
Current synoptic setup consists of high pressure over Manitoba and Ontario and an area of low pressure over North Dakota. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the central part of the U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad and deep 500 mb trough over most of the U.
Upper level ridging will be the main feature for much of the week. But, conditions could become more unsettled towards the weekend as troughing digs into the area.
212 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 Key Points: - Snow moves out of the area by sunrise today with temperatures not warming up far beyond freezing.
WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure lifting northeast through the Central Plains. Near the surface, high pressure is building in across the Colorado Rockies.
318 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 Water vapor imagery and RAP analyses reveal a weak clipper dropping through MN this morning, and a much stronger low currently over the lower Mississippi valley. Better chances for lake effect/lake enhanced snow showers develop after sunrise as the clipper drops in and phases with the southern system that will by then be moving into the lower Great Lakes. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the central part of the U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad and deep 500 mb trough over most of the U.
Downslope enhanced drier air in the lower levels and a lack of moisture associated with the approaching trough axis itself will lend to a lack of precip chances across western Kansas.
There's a risk of fog overnight, mainly in the lower Treasure Valley, near Burns and Baker City, and in sheltered mountain-valleys.
The cold front is clearing our eastern parishes at this time, and the remaining showers and storms will continue to taper off through the next couple of hours. Overnight, cloud cover will build in to the region on the back side of the low, but otherwise quiet and dry weather is anticipated. Went ahead and ended the High Wind Warning a couple of hours early as this system has largely cleared the area and winds are relaxing quite a bit.
Each model has it's own opinion on wind speeds tonight through Wednesday morning, with the NBM representing the higher end of the spectrum keeping them 10-12 mph through the night, and MOS at the lower end around 5-6 mph.
1139 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 A potent low pressure system over the Lower MS Valley will track into north MS and then West TN later tonight. Strong upward vertical motion across NE AR is cooling the lower layers of the atmosphere and changing the rain to heavy wet snow. Surface temps are above freezing so much of the snow is melting on roadways but where it comes down heavy enough there will be slick spots.
Some lingering showers will continue in the Coastal Plains through the mid afternoon, along with some light returns further west where moisture wraps around behind the low. Dry conditions are forecast by this evening areawide as the upper low quickly moves into the Central Mississippi Valley. Will see widespread low temperatures in the 30s overnight, with a few locations over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau seeing brief freezing conditions. Broad upper level troughing is seen over the area tomorrow keeping northwest winds in place, although not as breezy as today.