Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure moving atop the region will promote dry conditions but a swath of mid-level moisture and modest cooling will make for partly to mostly cloudy skies over mainly eastern MN into western WI.
1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 (Today through Friday) Alabama will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over Texas. Most areas will see highs in the lower 90s today and Friday with heat indices 95-100.
308 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 In the wake of a weak cold front that passed through the area today, a decent cumulus field exists in an unstable environment. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
While additional storms have developed to the east of the area over the Big Country, the main focus for potential shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon will be across the higher terrain of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, where diurnally driven isolated storms may develop. These winds will keep moisture elevated, with lows expected to remain on the mild side, in the lower 70s for most locations, and 60s possible in the mountains. The mid-level ridge centered over southern New Mexico will continue building on Friday, and begin slowly translating eastward. This will result in an uptick in temperatures areawide Friday afternoon, with highs roughly 2-3 degrees warmer than today for most locations. Lows Friday night will also trend a bit warmer, but generally remain in the upper 60s to middle 70s for most.
126 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper pattern remains similar to that of 24 hours ago with the forecast area on the northeastern periphery of a ridge centered over southern New Mexico.
1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) Upper high pressure will remain centered over southern New Mexico for the next couple of days.
Long wave trough is set up over Hudson Bay south into the Great Lakes with more zonal flow here. A weak cold front will also move south through the region. A summertime surface cold front will approach mid state region from northwest by early evening hours tonight before pushing southeastward into locations generally south of I-40 Corridor by Friday morning and then continuing to push slowly southward, positioned near TN/AL Border region by late Friday afternoon. Some drier air to the north might try to work into our area, but high temperatures on Friday will just be a degree cooler or so at best.
Temperatures a few degrees warmer at Chattanooga and Knoxville than today but staying near average.
A weak cold front has moved into the Big Country, to near I-20.
Otherwise, broken diurnal cumulus and cooler conditions throughout the region.
(Rest of Today) Throughout the day, the local forecast area will remain situated beneath the northern periphery of a broad/flat subtropical ridge, which currently extends from the eastern North Pacific waters (west of the Baja Peninsula) to the southwestern North Atlantic waters (east of the Bahamas).
Otherwise, expect warmer conditions, partly cloudy skies and light winds today. Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms in southeast Oregon, including KBNO and KBKE, and the higher terrain of southwest Idaho, including KMYL.
1144 AM MDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Upper trof has shifted east of the forecast area with northwest flow over the northern Plains. Northerly winds behind low on Friday will bring cooler air into the area, so dropped highs over northwestern SD and along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills. Upper ridge builds over the weekend, then gradually flattens by midweek, allowing temperatures to return to seasonal normals.
Lows tonight in the low-mid 70s. Highs for Friday in the low to mid 90s.
1219 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 (Rest of Today) Throughout the day, the local forecast area will remain situated beneath the northern periphery of a broad/flat subtropical ridge, which currently extends from the eastern North Pacific waters (west of the Baja Peninsula) to the southwestern North Atlantic waters (east of the Bahamas).
Early afternoon satellite imagery was showing a baggy broad open trough across the region with several embedded disturbances rotating south through British Columbia and the NRN Rockies. This activity should wane after midnight as trailing energy pushes into the Pacific NW coastal waters Friday morning resulting in the development of a shallow downstream short- wave ridge over SRN Idaho. By Friday afternoon and evening, the models show isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity bubbling up under the weak ridge along the Montana divide and near the Nevada/Utah border.
317 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Key Messages: * Showers and thunderstorms possible starting late this evening and going into the overnight hours as a disturbance makes its way eastward off of the high plains.
409 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 A cold front will move east across the area through tonight, followed by high pressure for Friday.
357 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 A mid and upper-level trough will move across and offshore the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through this evening.
1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Latest HREF has weak surface based CAPE (250-500 J/kg) across far southern portions of the forecast area this afternoon on the backside of cold front. Otherwise, partly sunny and cooler with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. This combined with a developing warm front, sufficient instability, and shear, could generate showers and storms over western Missouri and spread east through the forecast area Friday afternoon/night.
1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Cooler than normal conditions will be in place today and continue through the weekend.
233 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Tonight, high pressure will drift by overhead with mostly clear skies and essentially calm winds. It will be a good night to open the windows with temperatures falling into the lower and middle 50s with low humidity indicated by dew point temps in the upper 40s and low 50s. Friday, models are in generally good agreement in bringing a system into the region with a low tracking to our south with an inverted trough moving across the area.
400 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 A mid and upper-level trough will move across and offshore the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through this evening.
1021 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Cooler than normal conditions will be in place today and continue through the weekend.
(Now through Friday) Broad upper ridging remains stretched across the Gulf of Mexico and into the western Atlantic today while a weak upper trough lingers over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. By Friday, the upper trough begins to sag southeastward into the local area which causes the upper ridge over the Gulf to weaken slightly. Lows tonight dip into the lower to middle 70s.
Highs will be lower today while temperatures this afternoon will struggle to reach the low 90s. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s across the area.
222 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 An upper level ridge will bring another mostly sunny, hot, and humid afternoon. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday, some with locally heavy rainfall, as a cold front from the west crosses the region in the afternoon and evening. Dewpoints are in the 60s making it feel warmer. Tonight should be mostly dry as we wait for the upper level trough and cold front from the west. The cold front will push through late afternoon into the evening from northwest to southeast. Clouds will be slow to clear but temperatures will still fall into the low and mid 60s. A slow moving cold front that moves through our region on Friday is expected to head out sometime in the evening.
Southwest Montana has been highlighted by ensemble guidance as having the highest probability (30-50%) of wind gusts of 30 mph or greater.
Early afternoon satellite imagery with surface obs and RAP13 analysis showed an area of high pressure centered over the region, with scattered shallow cumulus clouds. Overnight high pressure will slowly slide eastward, allowing winds to develop a southerly direction, but speeds will remain light, generally 5 to 10 mph. Meanwhile another focus for showers and thunderstorms will be along a weak cold front that will slide southward across the region late Friday.
1223 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Long wave western NOAM ridge will slowly shift east in the period with semi-active NW flow over the region through much of the period.
Meanwhile, models show storms developing once again in the High Plains late this afternoon and evening. The highest chances for storms will be across the NE third or so of the fa. Right now it does appear that temperatures may be a bit warmer tomorrow with the coolest temperatures (mid 80s) in NE parts of the fa to the hottest (upper 90s/around 100) in SW OK and western north TX.
Rain chances every day through the weekend with cooler high temperatures near 80 degrees.
(Rest of today through Friday) The synoptic pattern finally begins to shift in the short term as the well-entrenched ridge of high pressure at the mid-levels is pinched southward by an amplifying trough of low pressure to close out the work week.
In addition to the northwesterly flow aloft, we do have some easterly winds in the lower levels, which is giving the storms just enough directional shear to get the storms somewhat organized, which is allowing the storms to produce some localized small hail and gusty winds. As we head into the weekend, a broad and weak upper level low will push into the NW CONUS.
332 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Even with dewpoints hanging in the lower 70s, just a few tiny showers have been able to develop over west Kentucky this afternoon. The Quad State will be on the southern edge of a large trough over the eastern half of the Canada on Friday.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Weak pressure pattern remains in place Friday along with long wave troughing across central Canada and extending down into northern/central Plains.
An upper level ridge of high pressure centered over southwestern New Mexico and far southeastern Arizona will remain intact through tonight. Given sufficient shear, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, particularly across northwest sections closer to the higher terrain of northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado. This should result in a new round of showers and thunderstorms developing first across the higher terrain of southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico, then translating east and southeast, impacting our forecast area Friday evening and night.
(This evening through Friday) Late this afternoon, a weak cold front has moved to near I-20, with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along the boundary. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. The first is across our southeast counties, where moisture will be a bit higher and upper level ridging a bit weaker. A weak disturbance is forecast to track across the South Plains, on the northeast periphery of the ridge.
/14 (Now through Friday) Broad upper ridging remains stretched across the Gulf of Mexico and into the western Atlantic today while a weak upper trough lingers over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. By Friday, the upper trough begins to sag southeastward into the local area which causes the upper ridge over the Gulf to weaken slightly. Lows tonight dip into the lower to middle 70s.
The low-level ridge axis which reaches west to near southern Andros will spread west and lift northward over the next 24-hours. Remarkably, this plume will last for several days as the ridge axis lingers near or just north of the Keys.
754 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 (Rest of today through Friday) The synoptic pattern finally begins to shift in the short term as the well-entrenched ridge of high pressure at the mid-levels is pinched southward by an amplifying trough of low pressure to close out the work week.
606 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 (This evening through Friday) Late this afternoon, a weak cold front has moved to near I-20, with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along the boundary. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. The first is across our southeast counties, where moisture will be a bit higher and upper level ridging a bit weaker. A weak disturbance is forecast to track across the South Plains, on the northeast periphery of the ridge.
721 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Aviation The surface cold front has cleared West Michigan, but a shallow slope to the frontal surface aloft is resulting in a very slow progression of cooler and drier air to fully move into the area, and is also allowing diurnal instability to fire off a few more showers (outside chance of a thunderstorm) over eastern sections (between US-131 and US-127). By late afternoon, even this scattered convection will be east of our area, as high pressure starts to build in for tonight and tomorrow.
Northerly flow aloft will begin to shift to the southwest this evening as a broad trough slides down the eastern edge of the ridge and deepens into a close low located over Vancouver Island.
More of the same today and Friday, the ridge is slightly suppressed to our southeast and s/wv activity continues to our north. Red Flag Warnings for today and Friday as a result and the Excessive Heat Warning for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon will continue.
With high pressure situated to our southwest, clear skies and dry conditions persisted across the region this evening. Low temperatures will be similar or a degree or two cooler than last night's lows.
941 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Cooler/drier air continues to enter northern MI, behind a cold front that has completely exited MI. Those will exit southward with time, and a quiet and much cooler night is ahead. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Weak pressure pattern remains in place Friday along with long wave troughing across central Canada and extending down into northern/central Plains.
905 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Persistent low pressure over the eastern United States will maintain frequent chances for scattered showers and storms through much of the next seven days. Afternoon and evening storms will wane, but a second cluster of storms appears to be developing along a cold front near CLE. Showers and storms along/ahead of the front should depart most of the area by mid or late afternoon, with the exception being the higher terrain to the east where development could persist into evening hours with help from post- frontal upslope flow.
442 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Long wave western NOAM ridge will slowly shift east in the period with semi-active NW flow over the region through much of the period.
Even with dewpoints hanging in the lower 70s, just a few tiny showers have been able to develop over west Kentucky this afternoon. The Quad State will be on the southern edge of a large trough over the eastern half of the Canada on Friday.
935 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 A mid and upper-level trough will move offshore the Carolinas through this evening.
In the wake of a weak cold front that passed through the area today, a decent cumulus field exists in an unstable environment. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
Tonight, high pressure will drift by overhead with mostly clear skies and essentially calm winds. It will be a good night to open the windows with temperatures falling into the lower and middle 50s with low humidity indicated by dew point temps in the upper 40s and low 50s. Friday, models are in generally good agreement in bringing a system into the region with a low tracking to our south with an inverted trough moving across the area.
747 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 A mid and upper-level trough will move across and offshore the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through this evening.
Upper level winds are continued to stay in a zonal flow and at the surface winds are generally out of a east to northeast direction due to an area of high pressure in eastern Nebraska and visible satellite is also picking up on some various outflow boundaries from the storms we are presently seeing. Temperatures will be highly dependent on how much insolation breaks through the clouds and generally cooler than seasonable highs will likely happen with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
There is marginal instability which will exist east of an upper level trough over the Coast Range, far northern Shasta county and near Lassen Park to bring the potential (10% chance) for very isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon afternoon. These temperatures are trending generally 2 to 5 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. A weak upper level trough will persist over the Eastern Pacific into the weekend keeping a west to southwest onshore flow pattern over NorCal.
247 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 1) Dry conditions will continue through the morning hours 2) Increasing chances of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms this afternoon through the overnight hours tonight The first portion of the day today will be dry and sunny, under an area of high pressure. Instability should increase this evening into the overnight hours, with most-unstable CAPE values on the order of 500 J/kg, and perhaps closer to the 1000 J/kg per the higher end model guidance - still pretty meager instability. With the higher Pwats, a wetting rainfall should occur for a good portion of the region, with forecast rainfall amounts between one-tenth and a half inch for most locations. Passing weak ridge with northwesterly boundary layer flow Sat night will allow for over night lows in the 50s.
Scattered showers with isolated storms have developed where a LLJ and elevated WAA axis is in place ahead of an approaching cold front.
Cooler high temperatures will occur through this weekend. An upper level trough will move into the Plains today.
140 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 A cold front will move east across the area through tonight, followed by high pressure for Friday.
A much better chance for showers and storms develops Saturday, as a cold front approaches. Broad NOAM trough with next frontal system to focus convection across Iowa/Minnesota Friday afternoon/evening.
243 AM MDT Fri Jul 7 2023 An upper ridge will be building eastward through the weekend bringing generally dry weather and warming temperatures to northeast Montana. With the slight unstable northwest flow across Montana today, there is potential for a few random showers or thunderstorms to pop up, generally across the higher terrain of central Montana, but could be further east. As the ridge builds east, the convective potential will diminish.
However, a southward-moving cold front will simultaneously be crossing the ND/SD border. A window of daytime heating, sfc dewpoints in the low 60s, and fairly steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to a narrow zone of instability near the front, in the neighborhood of 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Cloud cover and/or the presence of an upper-low near Canada's Hudson Bay and its associated cold frontal passage will limit temperatures to below normal both today and Saturday, with highs in the 70s.
(Today and tonight) Thunderstorms are expected to move off the High Plains, making their way into northwestern Oklahoma by early this morning.
404 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 Thermal trough, characterized by 850 mb temperatures of around 12C, settles into the region today.
However, a high pressure ridge will approach the area from the west as well, which will keep temperatures slightly above normal.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridging remains centered near El Paso early this morning with a broad zone of modest WNW flow aloft set to persist over the High Plains through tonight.
443 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 Persistent low pressure over the eastern United States will maintain periodic chances for scattered showers and storms over the next seven days. Showers and storms along/ahead of the front should be largely east of PGH by this afternoon and continue to diminish from west to east as warmer air moves in aloft capping further convection. With h850 temps expected around 03C cooler than observed yesterday, daytime highs will be closer to normal in the low 80s. Widespread showers will develop overnight as the low moves up the Ohio Valley.
A stalled front will meander across the area as W/NW flow remains in place over the state with H500 ridging to the SW.
101 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 (Rest of today through Friday) The synoptic pattern finally begins to shift in the short term as the well-entrenched ridge of high pressure at the mid-levels is pinched southward by an amplifying trough of low pressure to close out the work week.
1138 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Cooler/drier air continues to enter northern MI, behind a cold front that has completely exited MI. Those will exit southward with time, and a quiet and much cooler night is ahead. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Weak pressure pattern remains in place Friday along with long wave troughing across central Canada and extending down into northern/central Plains. Weak height falls/short wave trough will slide across Michigan for Saturday though again with a minimal surface reflection over the upper Great Lakes (dominated by differential heating).
Tonight and Friday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure centered over the central Plains and across Minnesota early this afternoon. Conditions are noticeably cooler and less humid than at this time yesterday with temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to middle 70s over northeast WI at 2 pm. With high pressure moving across the region over the next 24 hours, forecast concerns mainly revolve around cloud and temp trends. The center of the high should be right over Wisconsin leading to ideal conditions for radiational cooling.
Convection could develop locally Friday afternoon into Friday night with weak inverted troughing possibly lingering in southern areas and a weak cold front coming in Friday night into Saturday morning.
343 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday, some with locally heavy rainfall, as a cold front from the west crosses the region in the afternoon and evening. A cold front, currently extending from the upper Saint Lawrence valley into Ohio and Kentucky will move east today, reaching the I-81 corridor (roughly) by midday. Shortly after, a negative tilted trough over the Great Lakes moves in setting off another round of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms.
With the lack of rainfall, temperatures have remained very warm overnight, with readings hovering in the lower to mid 80s. Surface analysis depicts the subtropical high over the central Atlantic, with a weak ridge extending westward through the northern Bahamas and the Keys. Aloft, the subtropical ridge extends from the western Atlantic through our region and into the Gulf of Mexico.
(This afternoon through Saturday Night) Long wave trough is set up over the Hudson Bay south into the Great Lakes with more zonal flow here. A weak cold front is also moving south through the region. The long wave trough will start to dig on Saturday and this will bring the front back north as a warm front early Saturday and bring the return of wet weather to Middle TN. A cold front will start to approach from the northwest Saturday afternoon into the evening. There is some uncertainty on how much CAPE we see build in during the afternoon, some of this will be dependent on precip with the warm front and how long it lingers.
140 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 Aviation The surface cold front has cleared West Michigan, but a shallow slope to the frontal surface aloft is resulting in a very slow progression of cooler and drier air to fully move into the area, and is also allowing diurnal instability to fire off a few more showers (outside chance of a thunderstorm) over eastern sections (between US-131 and US-127). By late afternoon, even this scattered convection will be east of our area, as high pressure starts to build in for tonight and tomorrow. However deeper moisture and some lift are shown over southern parts of the CWA which is where we will feature the highest POPs.