Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
931 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Upper level low pressure will gradually push away from the New England coast this evening allowing high pressure to build in from the Tennessee River Valley.
727 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023 Weak high pressure slowly builds in from the north tonight into Friday.
708 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023 The stubborn upper low pressure system starts to relinquish its grip on the region tonight.
643 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023 Summary: Cooler by Lake Superior through the weekend with temperatures trending warmer overall.
An ongoing developing warm front across central Lake Michigan, an influx of mid level moisture and steep mid level lapse rates will support scattered to perhaps numerous showers through the night across central Michigan.
As a California low pressure system slowly makes its way through the area through the weekend, unsettled conditions will prevail with temperatures closer to normal for this time of year. Latest early afternoon analysis shows a closed low across central California, embedded within a broad trough swinging northward across the Great Basin. As we head into Friday, the above-mentioned area of low pressure is expected to close off across southern Idaho, per model consensus.
The higher elevations will see late-season snow showers with some minor accumulations. The cool upper low that has been meandering along the coast for several days is moving inland into central California. Some instability aloft with this low will bring the potential for afternoon thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. This may be due to the high sun angle, bringing some warming to the roads.
- Slow moderating trend of temps through the weekend - Temps will continue to undergo a slow moderating trend today through the weekend reaching well into the 60s today and into the lower to middle 70s this weekend as the upper level ridge amplifies over our area this weekend.
1013 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023 (Issued 1005 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023) Showers are ongoing and expected to continue and potentially increase in coverage over east central and central WI overnight as 850mb winds increase and overrun a stalled warm front that is parked from southern MN into lower Michigan. High temperatures inland are reaching the lower 70s, with temperatures near the lake in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Weak high pressure builds south across the eastern US today continuing warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, the area will be between an upper trough over New England and an upper ridge over the Gulf resulting in WNW flow. Easterly onshore flow today will keep coastal areas relatively cooler than the inland areas. Highs will be in the low 80s along the coast and along the Altamaha river basin to the upper 80s in north-central FL.
149 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023 High pressure nosing southwards from Hudson Bay will promote fair dry weather through the upcoming weekend. The aforementioned mid level ridge will significantly amplify over the Great Lakes region Friday night and Saturday.
A shift in the upper pattern is expected to take place tonight into Saturday as the ridge axis slowly slides across the Mid-MS Valley.
While some of the lowest ceilings will rise by early afternoon, expect a mostly cloudy day with highs reaching the lower to middle 70s.
However, influence from the trough to the west will bring breezy to gusty south/southwest flow to the region, as well as some scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the west and north. Moisture with these will be somewhat limited, especially later in the weekend as flow becomes more westerly/zonal as the main trough weakens and becomes less amplified and shifts north.
While severe weather is not likely, with a freezing level around 8-9 kft, elevated shear around 30 knots and about 1000 J/kg CAPE a few storms will likely produce dime to quarter sized hail.
The severe weather potential over the next 24 hours is limited at best given the weak instability north of the synoptic warm front. MJ A warm front will lift slowly northeast toward the Mid-South on Friday bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region starting late tonight and continuing into Friday. The warm front will finally move into the region by Saturday morning with more showers and thunderstorms for Friday night and Saturday. Warmer and more humid air will reach the area by Saturday bringing a period of unsettled weather with scattered thunderstorms expected for the weekend through much of the upcoming week.
Drier weather returns today and Saturday as upper level ridging builds into southern lower MI. Exception will be areas downwind of the lakes (particularly the Thumb) given the surface east-southeast winds likely holding temps 5- 10 degrees cooler than inland locales. Ridge axis crosses the region latter part of Saturday setting up stronger WAA into lower MI as lower level flow turns southwesterly supporting highs through the weekend reaching the low to mid 70s.
216 AM MDT Fri May 5 2023 Morning Discussion: Today: High pressure conditions with gusty east winds will be featured across the region through the late afternoon hours.
- A warmer period of normal to slightly above normal temperatures is likely. We may finally see what's left of the western trough fully eject and work into the region toward the end of the period, bringing the potential for more prolonged and widespread precipitation. Otherwise winds will continue to become more easterly overnight into Friday as a warm front lifts through the region.
Although a very unstable air- mass will develop over portions of the area this afternoon, upper ridge axis is forecast to build into the southern Plains from the west, likely inhibiting the potential for thunderstorm development. Otherwise, warmer weather expected with high temperatures back into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Thunderstorm activity will mainly occur across entire mid state region as afternoon hours on Sat progress as surface synoptic frontal system initially across southern plains through Sat morning eventually develops a secondary low across central MS River Valley Region pushing a warm front through our area as afternoon hours on Sat progresses. Initial quasi northwesterly flow aloft today will be replaced by upper level ridging influences as tonight into Sat progresses. However, it currently looks like some moisture will work under those upper level ridging dynamics. Highs on Sat will reflect warm frontal passage and initial establishment of a warm air advection pattern across our region with highs ranging from lower 80s TN River Valley Region to lower 70s Cumberland Plateau Region.
348 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023 Low pressure slowly pushes further offshore today with high pressure building in over the area.
On Saturday, a short wave trough will ride over the Gulf of Mexico ridge, and start to move across South Florida.
1052 PM MDT Thu May 4 2023 High pressure continues to push eastward as the ridge axis shifts towards the eastern seaboard. Off to the west, the upper level closed low over California slowly makes its way towards the Intermountain West.
137 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023 Weak high pressure slowly builds in from the north tonight into Friday.
After midnight, additional showers and thunderstorms may develop, focused across parts of east central Oklahoma and into west central Arkansas as the low level jet strengthens across south central into southeast Oklahoma. The main changes to the going forecast overnight have been to retool the POP/Wx grids to focus the highest rain and thunder chances farther south after midnight, as well as decreasing the QPF some north of I-40 by mixing in the short-term blended guidance to the previous forecast.
Dewpoints should remain relatively stagnant throughout the remainder of the evening and temperatures will drop to the mid 50's in our northernmost SE AL/SW GA counties to the low 60's in our FL counties. (Through Friday) Forecast area will be beneath WNW flow aloft between western Atlantic upper trough and upper ridge over western Gulf Coast region. (Friday night through Saturday night) Upper ridge gradually works eastward toward forecast area during this period. High temperatures Saturday will be several degrees warmer than Friday with building upper ridge.
(Today and tonight) The tri state region will be underneath west to west northwest mid level flow downstream of amplifying ridge axis through the Plains states. Surface flow will be relatively light as a weak warm front will nudge into our area from central MS/AL.
1159 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023 (Rest of tonight) A cold low pressure system that brought a chilly conditions this past weekend and earlier this week continued heading further to the east off of from the New England coast. This system departing has resulted in somewhat higher height values and lighter winds, and has brought slightly warmer conditions. Highs earlier today rose mostly into the low/mid 70s, still below normal highs that are around 80 this time of year.
(Today through Saturday) With a northwest flow aloft and the surface becoming more southeasterly through the day, we will begin to see more moisture working into the area at the lower levels. This MCS may cut off the southeast and portions of central Alabama from seeing rain at all today, thus the lower rainfall chances. There will be several disturbances that develop and exactly where those develop will be the higher rain chances.
1220 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023 Dry and warmer weather is expected into the weekend with high pressure.
At the surface, a 1002 mb lee cyclone was located in southeastern Colorado as per regional METAR data.
Florida's weather is brought to you by high pressure. A light easterly flow continues at the surface as upper-level ridging builds in from the west. Over the course of the days to come, this should serve to only strengthen the hold of the ridge. Ridging remains in place for much of the week to come.
High resolution models as well as other deterministic models show a broad, upper level trough dropping down into the region.
400 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023 Dry and warmer weather is expected into the weekend with high pressure.
This afternoon convection will again be widespread, with north-central ID and northwest Montana having the highest probabilities of receiving thunderstorms.
With the main upper feature remaining to our west, we should continue to see the ridge build in over the Plains Friday and Saturday.
1151 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023 An influx of mid level moisture associated with a developing warm front over central Lake Michigan will sustain periods of showers across mainly the MBS region overnight into Friday morning before the region of ascent becomes focussed farther north. As this ridging replaces the remaining upper troughing overhead, moderating temperatures will continue with highs into the mid 60s in many areas by Friday and Saturday, but with cooler readings near the Great Lakes as east to southeast flow predominates and advects cooler conditions from the relatively cool lake waters.
Discussion: Currently mostly sunny skies with temperatures expected to warm up to just below normal this afternoon with high pressure over the region. This increase in the clouds will help to keep overnight temperatures about 5-10 degrees warmer than what we experienced this morning. The remnants of storms across the Mississippi Valley will eventually make their way towards the eastern Tennessee Valley as they ride along the ridge building in from the south. Forecast soundings show that there is enough instability that if the remnants of these storms do hold together and stay further to the north that thunderstorms are possible with the highest likelihood being across southeast Tennessee.
Mid-/upper-level clouds will increase overnight, making for early morning lows a good 5-10 degrees warmer than those last night.
The region will remain under the influence of a broad area of low pressure through Saturday leading to elevated winds. SB CAPE of 500 J/Kg will remain in place ahead of is better lift and moisture through the early evening and this is where ensembles have the highest probabilities for thunderstorms at 20% to 30%. While the forcing will be broad and less focused than today, scattered showers are possible Friday afternoon as cool temperatures aloft along the trough axis will be situated over the Southern Great Basin. Temperatures on Friday will remain below normal but will be about 5 degrees warmer than today's high temperatures.
443 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023 The recent chilly and showery pattern associated with a slow moving and unseasonably strong upper level low will likely have one last gasp today, with respect to scattered afternoon showers as a disturbance aloft moves south across the region.
Cooler temperatures are expected today given the increasing cloud cover with more mild overnight temperatures.
Moisture gets shunted eastward on Saturday, and with drier air and subtle influence from upper ridging across the southern CONUS, temperatures will climb well into the upper 80s (around 15 degrees above average for this time of year).
Highs will warm into the lower 70s for most locations. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge will begin to build northeast into the Ohio Valley. On Saturday evening, mid-level ridging will be in place from the Gulf Coast through the Great Lakes. At the surface, between high pressure off the Carolina coast and low pressure over the high plains, a general regime of southerly flow will be in place across the Ohio Valley.
The cooler temperatures will slow snow melt that has been feeding the tributaries and main stem rivers of the Bear and Salt Rivers.
(Today through Saturday Night) Temperatures through the short term will be toasty with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows only getting into the low to mid 70s. Dew points will be rising into the low to mid 70s, so not only will it be warm, but also humid.
406 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023 High pressure nosing southwards from Hudson Bay will promote fair dry weather through much of the upcoming weekend.
211 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023 Dry and warmer weather is expected through Saturday with highs into the 70s this weekend through the following workweek. Temps will remain on the rise through Saturday an an upper level ridge gradually builds northeast into the western and central Great Lakes. The resulting height rises/subsidence, and developing southerly low level flow on the backside of high pressure, should push highs into the upper 60s to mid 70s Friday and Saturday.
634 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023 High pressure nosing southwards from Hudson Bay will promote fair dry weather through much of the upcoming weekend. The aforementioned mid level ridge will significantly amplify over the Great Lakes region tonight and Saturday.
This will bring an end to the low level moisture convergence and warm advection which are forcing the precipitation.
- Temperatures will be warmer than normal on most days. The upper trough to our northeast will be shifting east today and an upper low to our north will also move away. Meanwhile, a weak wave on the southern periphery of the upper low will bring a chance of light rain to southern MN into WI today and this evening.
There was a near saturation layer around 250 mb which can be attributed to some of the high cirrus streaming overhead. In the mid to upper levels, the ridge was centered over the Yucatan Peninsula with the low level ridge centered between the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba setting up west to northwest flow over the Keys. From synopsis, light to gentle northeast to east breezes are expected through the afternoon as high pressure builds off the Mid Atlantic coast.
830 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023 Dry and warmer weather is expected into the weekend with high pressure.
1023 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023 High pressure nosing southwards from Hudson Bay will promote fair dry weather through much of the upcoming weekend. However, even as the outgoing sprawling upper low moves away, residual cold air remains off the deck, thus with warmer boundary layer temperatures than in the past few days, a bit of destructive sunshine may well yield a shower or two this afternoon over the higher terrain of the Southern Tier or in the North Country. The aforementioned mid level ridge will significantly amplify over the Great Lakes region tonight and Saturday.
639 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023 (Today and tonight) The tri state region will be underneath west to west northwest mid level flow downstream of amplifying ridge axis through the Plains states. Surface flow will be relatively light as a weak warm front will nudge into our area from central MS/AL.
721 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023 The recent chilly and showery pattern associated with a slow moving and unseasonably strong upper level low will likely have one last gasp today, with respect to scattered afternoon showers as a disturbance aloft moves south across the region.
502 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023 The recent chilly and showery pattern associated with a slow moving and unseasonably strong upper level low will likely have one last gasp today, with respect to scattered afternoon showers as a disturbance aloft moves south across the region.
Afternoon temperatures will be cooler over Central and Southwest MT today, but still remain mild for one more day in the Havre area.
614 AM CDT Fri May 5 2023 (Today through Saturday) With a northwest flow aloft and the surface becoming more southeasterly through the day, we will begin to see more moisture working into the area at the lower levels. This MCS may cut off the southeast and portions of central Alabama from seeing rain at all today, thus the lower rainfall chances. There will be several disturbances that develop and exactly where those develop will be the higher rain chances.
Afternoon temperatures will be cooler over Central and Southwest MT today, but still remain mild for one more day in the Havre area. Otherwise, even though temperatures will be cooler, the forecast rainfall over the next several days will keep waterways elevated.
Some of the higher terrain, particularly in the North Bay could see up to 0. Highs will mostly be in the lower 60s with lows in the 40s.
An upper low over the area into northwest Ontario/Manitoba will retrograde west today into Saturday with a large upper trough remaining over the western CONUS/Canada.
NBM also caught on to that solution and has high temperatures in the upper 90s for the areas in the Marginal Risk today as opposed to the lower 90s and upper 80s for the rest of the RGV. Though, more sunshine is expected for Saturday with high temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s across Deep South Texas making it a warm start to the weekend.
Afternoon temperatures are currently forecast to climb into the low 80s along the immediate coast and into the mid to upper 80s west of I-95.
Upper level analysis shows deteriorating ridge to the lee of the Rockies, with low over the western CONUS. For today, one last day of quiet weather is expected as upper ridge continues is break down while upper low to our northeast starts to work into the western flow.
Today: Synoptic/GOES-E water vapor analysis this morning indicates mid-level ridge axis has become centered over the central Plains & low-level ridge building southeast over the Atlantic seaboard. Warm front along the northern Gulf Coast/southerly return flow has aided in low-level dewpoints climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s. With the warm front & high boundary layer moisture, widespread clouds will persist, with lows some 8-10 degrees above normal in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees in the ArkLaMiss Delta & northeast LA to low 60s in eastern MS. Outside of the rain, conditions will be seasonably warm as mid level ridging prevails for most of the extended.
Severe Storms Possible Heartland and Northwest Hill Country This Early this morning, WV imagery showing southwest flow over Texas, ahead of an trough over the southwest US. To the east of the dryline, plentiful boundary layer moisture in place with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s and south winds of 10 to 20 mph.
The higher elevations will see late-season snow showers with some minor accumulations. Upper low has progressed into the Great Basin as next upstream short wave poised to drop into the longwave trough along West Coast. Precip threat ramps up and becomes more widespread tonight into Saturday over interior NorCal as negatively tilted trough moves into the forecast area. Some accumulating snow possible in the higher elevations of Western Plumas county and Northern Sierra Nevada.
This solution has that new development developing into an MCS and diving southeastward across South-Central Arkansas and portions our Louisiana parishes along a stationary warm front, generally before lunch time today. However, it will be hot and humid as dewpoints will return into the upper 60s and lower 70s, with high temps ranging from the lower 80s north of I-30, to the mid to upper 80s south of I-20. Beginning Saturday night, upper ridging will be transitioning east with warm and humid conditions expected overnight as lows will only fall back into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The next trough will move towards Oregon and California Friday night into Saturday morning. The most QPF with the next trough and front will occur near midnight and into the first few hours of Saturday.
913 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023 The recent chilly and showery pattern associated with a slow moving and unseasonably strong upper level low will likely have one last gasp today, with respect to scattered afternoon showers as a disturbance aloft moves south across the region.
925 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023 High pressure remains over the area today.
This will likely hold through much of the day before gradually increasing as upper level ridging across the Gulf of Mexico builds. Despite this, lower level ridging will take some time as it takes shape across the western Atlantic later today. For the upcoming weekend, low level ridging will build across the Southeast US and western Atlantic, allowing for easterly breezes to freshen and draw in low level moisture.
Elevated southwest winds across the Mojave Desert and scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin will continue each afternoon through Saturday as the region remains under a broad area of low pressure. The 550mb low pressure center will continue to move eastward through southern Nevada today. Forcing associated with the negatively-tilted trough and cool temperatures aloft will allow for some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin this afternoon, where forecast lifted indices range from -1 to -3. Another day of scattered light showers and thunderstorms for the southern Great Basin and gusty southwest winds for the Mojave Desert expected Saturday afternoon as a secondary vort lobe spins around the remnant center of low pressure.
An upper level low will move slowly inland across Central California today, keeping a chance of precipitation over the mountains.
This MCS may cut off the southeast and portions of central Alabama from seeing rain at all today, thus the lower rainfall chances. There will be several disturbances that develop and exactly where those develop will be the higher rain chances.
616 AM CDT Fri May 5 2023 (Today through Saturday Night) Temperatures through the short term will be toasty with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows only getting into the low to mid 70s. Dew points will be rising into the low to mid 70s, so not only will it be warm, but also humid.
High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region today. Temperatures will be seasonable with afternoon highs in the lower 70s. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge will begin to build northeast into the Ohio Valley. On Saturday evening, mid-level ridging will be in place from the Gulf Coast through the Great Lakes. At the surface, between high pressure off the Carolina coast and low pressure over the high plains, a general regime of southerly flow will be in place across the Ohio Valley.