Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
656 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move east to New England by Thursday. Temperatures will continue to remain relatively cool for June, favoring the cooler side of normal. Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move east to New England by Thursday. With low pressure to our north, clouds will be the thickest across the mountains. Temperatures will continue to remain relatively cool for June favoring the cooler side of normal.
930 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move east to New England by Thursday. Temperatures will continue to remain relatively cool for June, favoring the cooler side of normal. Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move east to New England by Thursday. With low pressure to our north, clouds will be the thickest across the mountains. Temperatures will continue to remain relatively cool for June favoring the cooler side of normal.
721 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Rain will end today as low pressure exits the region. Weak high pressure will return dry weather to the area later today through Thursday morning.
638 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 The departure of a low pressure area into New England will allow precipitation to decrease this morning with generally dry conditions by afternoon. High pressure building across the Ohio Valley will provide dry and seasonable weather tonight into midday Thursday before the next frontal system brings a chance of storms late in the day. A mid-level low will slide across the Lower Great Lakes today while ridging builds into the Upper Midwest. High pressure will provide mostly clear skies and light winds across much of the local area tonight. At the start of the period, the upper level closed low located over New England continues to slowly wobble east/northeast with the ILN CWA located under west/northwesterly flow.
251 AM PDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Today will be much cooler with showers wrapping into northeast Washington and north Idaho around an exiting low pressure system.
645 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Low pressure will bring periods of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms back to the area Wednesday.
* Medium for ceiling 5000 feet or less late this morning Stacked low pressure system is now centered over Lake Erie with relatively drier air now wrapping around the system southwestward into southern MI. The lows will continue pulling away to the east today with ridging over the Plains generally building east into the Great Lakes. So expectations are for a dry day with a fair amount of sun which allows the high temps to rebound back into mid 70s this afternoon. Left exit region of the 100 knot jet will pass over the area Thursday afternoon while a surface cold front sweeps through with the compact strong vort max passing just west and south of the local area. Still signs are there with favorable upper level dynamics and the cold front at a favorable time of day.
539 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Rain will end today as low pressure exits the region. Weak high pressure will return dry weather to the area later today through Thursday morning.
407 AM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Upper ridging remains across the northern Plains this morning, in between an upper low over the NE CONUS and another developing low over the northern Rockies. However, as the northern Rockies low marches forward this morning, the ridge will quickly break down. Overnight linger showers/storms are expected late tonight, then storms will redevelop quite early Thursday morning as another wave crosses the CWA and the cold front drifts eastward.
311 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Currently, an upper level ridge axis is located almost directly over central North Dakota. This ridge will continue to slowly move east and amplify the rest of today and tonight as a trough approaches from the west. At the surface, a stationary front located over western North Dakota will start to move east late this afternoon as it transitions to more of a warm frontal boundary. As the western trough approaches this evening, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the far west along an advancing cold front, moving into the central by Thursday. However, with highs in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, we should see some MLCAPE values in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range at least.
Temperatures are running slightly cooler, and are generally in the 80s, with near 90 degrees for the southern Red River Valley.
353 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Ridging in wake of an upper low will bring dry weather through Thursday morning.
1248 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Today: Another warm and quiet day ahead! Taking a look across the area, mostly clear and quiet conditions continue as wildfire smoke continues to be transported into the area via the departing closed low over the Great Lakes Region. With upper level ridging aloft and persistent ridging at the surface, expect winds to be light and variable for most of the day as temperatures mix out into the upper 80s to low 90s across the area.
Temperatures now in the upper 70s will drop into the low to mid 50s overnight under the influence of early morning clear skies, with mid and upper-level cloud cover filling in through the mid to late morning hours ahead of the next system. Interesting kinematics to note during the afternoon and early evening time frame as h700-h500 wind maximum overspreads SE MI resulting in the elongated of the low and mid- levels in the hodographs.
Cold front looks to be situated across eastern Montana. 700mb ridge axis has shifted east into the Dakotas and central Nebraska. an upper vort trough moves across the front that will aid in convective development.
This is expected to bring the higher threat of severe storms in our local area during the evening and overnight hours.
Stacked low pressure system is now centered over Lake Erie with relatively drier air now wrapping around the system southwestward into southern MI. The lows will continue pulling away to the east today with ridging over the Plains generally building east into the Great Lakes. So expectations are for a dry day with a fair amount of sun which allows the high temps to rebound back into mid 70s this afternoon. Left exit region of the 100 knot jet will pass over the area Thursday afternoon while a surface cold front sweeps through with the compact strong vort max passing just west and south of the local area. Still signs are there with favorable upper level dynamics and the cold front at a favorable time of day.
Our CWA is now under a much drier and cooler air mass from a compact upper low moving across northern Idaho.
As the well advertised omega pattern continues to slowly progress eastward, the trailing trough will move closer to the CWA today from the northwest. The trough will continue to nudge eastward as we move into Thursday. A weak cold front associated with the trough looks to push through the region on Thursday afternoon/evening. The long wave trough over the West splits on Thursday night with the northern branch continuing to track eastward across central Canada.
(This evening through Thursday) Upper air analysis this afternoon depicts a sub-tropical ridge over northern Mexico and into the State of Texas, with the CWA positioned along the northern periphery of this ridge.
Additional scattered thunderstorm development across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas is possible this afternoon and evening as another impulse rotates around the large scale trough centered over northwest Missouri and deeper moisture returns to the region behind this morning's storms.
Another round of thunderstorms is possible this afternoon into the early evening over the higher terrain in the Sierra and southern Great Basin. Otherwise, skies are expected to be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Even with slightly warmer temperatures today, highs will be several degrees below the 30-year normal of 99 degrees.
346 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s so far this afternoon. Temperatures will be a touch warmer tomorrow, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, with Louisville close to 90. Thursday night, another upper trough will try to close as it moves over the Eastern Great Lakes. This is part of a larger trough that has been over the Eastern US for the last several days. This time it will push a weak cold front south through the Lower Ohio Valley.
Low pressure which has plagued the Great Lakes for the past several days will continue to pivot off to the east tonight, reaching New England by early Thursday morning. Cool with Showers Thursday then Turning Warmer.
The Keys lie in the saddle of a fractured mid to upper level ridge with low level ridging stretching westward across the Atlantic and entirety of the Gulf of Mexico. Lastly, as alluded to it has been quite hot and muggy today with many island communities either near 90 degrees or in the lower 90s along with dew points in the upper 70s to near 80. As the low to mid level Atlantic ridge continues to build across our area. Highs will continue to reach into the lower 90s along with dewpoints in the upper 70s.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper ridge moves to the east this morning and flow aloft turns to the SW today. A cold front will move in from the west as an upper low moves into the Canadian and Montana Rockies. A few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms have already developed early this morning over central Montana with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms moving east across the continental divide with the cold front. The cold front exits NE Montana around midnight tonight taking the storms with it. Upper low move NE into Saskatchewan on Thursday leaving NE Montana in a dry slot with cooler temperatures.
453 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 The low pressure that was responsible for the much-needed precipitation the last few days has advanced east to be over upstate New York, and ridging is setting up over the Upper Great Lakes in the wake of the low. Tonight, a secondary trough will swing south from Ontario and bring an associated cold front to the UP along with some light precipitation to the eastern UP counties.
These winds will allow for warmer temperatures, with highs reaching above 100 for much of the area.
228 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Cold front has already progressed eastward through more than half of our CWA and is now oriented in a north-south line from Scobey through Wolf Point through Miles City.
An approaching low pressure system and upper level trough should push the smoke northward Thursday afternoon due to southerly flow. Upper trof currently over the PacNW will slide northeast into Canada through Thursday, leaving behind some bagginess in the H5 height field over the Rockies.
This will mean warmer temperatures and an increase in moisture.
Discussion: Currently, an upper level low is situated over the Northeast and will slowly move along the East Coast. Otherwise the Virginia counties might see a band of showers move through late this evening associated with the upper trough axis pivoting through. The upper level system in the Northeast will begin to move offshore and high pressure will begin to build across the region. As such, drier conditions are expected for Thursday with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.
A backdoor cold front will sweep across the area Thursday.
Earlier rain/thunderstorms today have clearly stabilized the lower atmosphere with stratiform low/mid level clouds across much of the area, but breaks in those clouds are certainly present.
1213 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 (Today and tonight) Expect another hot and dry day today with continued high pressure and zonal flow aloft over West Central Texas. High temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s in the Big Country this afternoon, with warmer temperatures to the south reaching into the mid 90s to near 103.
1233 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 (Today through Thursday) The 500mb ridge builds through the short term and allows the heat to bake Deep South Texas.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) A weak cold front brought fog and cooler temperatures temporarily to the northern Permian Basin. The ridge continues to strengthen on Thursday.
A cold front which passed through north-central Idaho and western Montana early this morning is leading to breezy southwest to west winds this afternoon. A low pressure circulation moving through southern Alberta will wrap precipitation into primarily northwest Montana tonight through Thursday. Snow levels down to 6500 to 7000 feet will support snow in the highest terrain, and in particular through the backcountry of Glacier National Park.
High pressure centered over Hudson Bay was in control across the Northland with a weak frontal boundary across central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler for Thursday with easterly winds, especially near Lake Superior.
This will likely help organize convection developing over the high plains into a complex that will affect parts of eastern OK and western AR Thursday night.
(This evening through Thursday night) Dry conditions are expected to remain for most of the Panhandles with the area still underneath the upper-level ridge. Meanwhile, the NBM has been keeping pops on the lower side with best chances in the northeast.
1159 AM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023 The PacNW trough is beginning to shift our pattern around across the state today. As the trough moves to the northeast into Canada, a weak front will move across the regions east of the Divide, bringing some slightly cooler temperatures tonight into Thursday.
A warming trend is in store for the end of this week and into the weekend as ridging starts to slowly build over the region. Highs today and Thursday across the lower deserts will range from the upper 90s to the low 100s. By the end of this week, global ensembles show this persistent troughing pattern beginning to break down as ridging starts to build over the region.
136 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 The departure of a low pressure area into New England will allow precipitation to decrease this morning with generally dry conditions by afternoon. High pressure building across the Ohio Valley will provide dry and seasonable weather tonight into midday Thursday before the next frontal system brings a chance of storms late in the day. Low pressure continues to move eastward this morning, with weak radar echoes finally exiting our fa. High pressure will provide mostly clear skies and light winds across much of the local area tonight. At the start of the period, the upper level closed low located over New England continues to slowly wobble east/northeast with the ILN CWA located under west/northwesterly flow.
Current satellite image shows high clouds moving in from the northwest on the backside of an upper trough located in northeast Washington State. Despite the high clouds over the area, the sun is still visible and it's expected to remain the case today. The high clouds will move through early this afternoon. A cold front moved through the area and afternoon temperatures this afternoon will be cooler for interior locations compared to yesterday.
1203 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Key Messages: - A noticeable increase in smoke aloft for the next few days with some smoke mixing down to the surface this afternoon as a cold front moves across the forecast area from northeast to southwest. TODAY: SMOKEY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES Current water vapor satellite imagery shows drier air spreading southeast across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin as the upper-level trough responsible for our cooler stretch of weather the last few days continues to slide to the east. This afternoon a backdoor cold front moves southwest across the forecast area providing a mechanism for mix- down of smoke to the surface. Visibility reductions are also possible if smoke mixes down into the lower layers of the atmosphere.
Upper low current centered over NW Montana/southern Alberta. Surface cold front has pushed through East Idaho with clear delineation from wet air mass to dry air mass on satellite. Upper trough continues to drop southeast across the region overnight through Thursday as weak supporting wave slides into the base of the trough. Trough deepens over East Idaho, then briefly and weakly closes off centered over East Idaho Thursday night.
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 50s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 50s.
434 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 The low pressure that was responsible for the much-needed precipitation the last few days has advanced east to be over upstate New York, and ridging is setting up over the Upper Great Lakes in the wake of the low. Tonight, a secondary trough will swing south from Ontario and bring an associated cold front to the UP along with some light precipitation to the eastern UP counties.
137 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023 A cold front has pushed east through the area as of early this afternoon, leaving in its wake breezy and gusty west winds and scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm.
Currently we are seeing weak ridging over the area that is helping to keep upper level troughing to our north for now.
1139 AM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Upper ridging remains across the northern Plains this morning, in between an upper low over the NE CONUS and another developing low over the northern Rockies. However, as the northern Rockies low marches forward this morning, the ridge will quickly break down. Overnight linger showers/storms are expected late tonight, then storms will redevelop quite early Thursday morning as another wave crosses the CWA and the cold front drifts eastward.
High pressure will rebuild into the region for dry and warmer conditions on Thursday.
(Tonight) Current temperatures across the local area are mainly in the lower 70s; however, a few spots especially near Fort Payne have dropped into the upper 60s this evening according to surface observations. Lastly, low temperatures will likely dip into the lower to mid 60s late tonight into early Thursday morning.
739 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Ridging in the wake of an upper low will bring dry weather through Thursday morning.
This ridge is generating light southeast to southerly breezes across the Keys. The Keys remain firmly within the descending branch of a mid and upper level trough, now aligned approximately over the Bahamas. Short Term Update - The lower level ridge will remain across the Keys through the overnight period. Unfortunately, this flow will ensure well above normal overnight lows in the lower 80s and dew points an Octoberlike upper 70s. The background ridging, dry air aloft, and negative support aloft is indicative of an overall environment that is quite inhospitable for convective development. An Atlantic ridge across Keys waters will maintain light to gentle southeast to southerly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
A persistent onshore flow pattern will keep cooler than normal weather in place through late week as a broad area of low pressure remains anchored over the region.
These conditions continue while a plume of mid and high clouds/smoke move down from the northern Great Lakes and into the MBS area toward midnight as a prelude to the next low pressure system. Recovery of daytime instability leads to a second round of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon as a wave of low pressure ripples along the cold front settling north to south through the region. Temperatures now in the upper 70s will drop into the low to mid 50s overnight under the influence of early morning clear skies, with mid and upper-level cloud cover filling in through the mid to late morning hours ahead of the next system. Interesting kinematics to note during the afternoon and early evening time frame as h700-h500 wind maximum overspreads SE MI resulting in the elongated of the low and mid- levels in the hodographs.
631 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Upper air analysis this afternoon depicts a sub-tropical ridge over northern Mexico and into the State of Texas, with the CWA positioned along the northern periphery of this ridge.
Otherwise, a dry day is expected as high pressure builds into the region. Leaned toward the cooler guidance with the expected smoke and colder temps aloft. Thursday Night Through Wednesday The next upper ridge will be the main player in the forecast for the beginning of the extended through the weekend before allowing some active weather to slip through. The ridge then re-establishes itself towards the end of the forecast period.
610 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) A weak cold front brought fog and cooler temperatures temporarily to the northern Permian Basin. The ridge continues to strengthen on Thursday.
1034 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 An upper level low and associated cold front moves through the region into tonight, before weak high pressure briefly builds in on Thursday.
Issued by National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 609 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) A persistent and slowly amplifying upper level ridge centered across Mexico to the south and the very anomalous 700 to 850 mb temperatures will continue to promote very hot and rain free conditions across the region through the short term period. For the Rio Grande Plains, the dew points are currently in the low to mid 70s but looks to mix out into the mid to upper 60s late in the day. The dew points out west will rebound overnight into the low to mid 70s before they mix out into the low to mid 60s on Thursday.
A cold front has pushed east through the area as of early this afternoon, leaving in its wake breezy and gusty west winds and scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm.
Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s so far this afternoon. Temperatures will be a touch warmer tomorrow, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, with Louisville close to 90. Thursday night, another upper trough will try to close as it moves over the Eastern Great Lakes. This is part of a larger trough that has been over the Eastern US for the last several days. This time it will push a weak cold front south through the Lower Ohio Valley.
However, moisture will increase by the weekend due to upper level troughing.
1003 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Weak high pressure briefly builds in and provides drier conditions through early Thursday. High pressure departs Thursday afternoon with an approaching cold front from the north, which will increase chances for showers and storms through Thursday night.
Backdoor cold front will usher smoke at sfc south and west of the area later today. Slight chance for thunderstorms with the cold front this afternoon. Upper level ridging is continuing its slow move east into our area. A backdoor cold front will move south and west into our area from the WI. This cold front will bringing drier cooler air into the area this evening. This smoke will linger until the cold front pushes through the area. [Key Messages] 1) While there is a chance of showers/storms for portions of the area this weekend, the overall forecast is trending to continued dry and warm conditions [Discussion] Backdoor cold front will make for a dry and pleasant end to the work week. Look for highs Friday to climb into the lower to middle 80s with a light northeast wind.
A weak upper low, part of the larger western US trough, moved through northern Arizona this afternoon and evening.
With cloud cover beginning to break up and ridging from a Hudson Bay High moving in from the northwest late today, we could see dewpoints drop into the mid to upper 30s across the western U.
135 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 The low pressure that was responsible for the much-needed precipitation the last few days has advanced east to be over upstate New York, and ridging is setting up over the Upper Great Lakes in the wake of the low. Tonight, a secondary trough will swing south from Ontario and bring an associated cold front to the UP along with some light precipitation to the eastern UP counties.