Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However a 2ndry disturbance on back of the trough along with continued upslope flow will allow for light precip to occur over most of the region through the night time hours. 2ndy disturbance will push down the plains on the backside of the trough.
159 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 North Dakota continues to sit under southwest flow with a trough to the west down through the Rockies and Four Corners region. A transition to ridging aloft is expected to take place this weekend, ushering in warmer temperatures with an initially dry forecast.
Cooler today and tomorrow as a trough slowly marches eastward through the area.
A ridge is building in over the region for this weekend, which will result in mostly clear skies tonight and Saturday.
Slow upper trough progression across the area in the short term, with an overrunning type scenario thanks to low pressure to the south and cooler low level flow out of the north. Upper trough axis looks to be over the eastern CWA Saturday night, with the core of coldest air overhead as well.
A large scale upper-trough is forecast to shift east across the Great Plains on Saturday, becoming somewhat negatively tilted while digging southward into Missouri and Arkansas on Saturday evening. Aside from a few counties in northeast Texas, the remainder of the ArkLaTex is within a risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday evening with an Enhanced Risk being the highest risk mainly across south Arkansas and much of north Louisiana.
An upper trough will support scattered snow showers over the higher elevations in the north today, mainly during the afternoon in central Idaho. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today, but still 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Scattered snow showers over the mountains of central Idaho and Baker County Oregon, mainly this afternoon, with periods of local MVFR/IFR and areas of mountain obscuration, as an upper level trough exits the area.
450 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 An upper level low brings showers and a few thunderstorms tonight through Saturday evening.
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Rain chances will diminish today as a cut-off upper level low moves away from the Mid-South. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday into Saturday night as an upper-level trough and associated cold front move through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
200 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 An upper level low brings showers tonight through Saturday evening.
Lows tonight range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s at the coast.
Moving into the overnight hours, some mid-level cloud cover settles over the area ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. Dry weather should hold through Saturday morning as the ridge axis slowly shifts eastward out of the area. Then, a trough currently moving into the Rockies becomes a bit higher amplitude while digging into the Plains into Saturday afternoon.
Some lingering moisture from the low pressure system positioned over Alabama could help the development of a few showers this afternoon.
155 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 For late today and this evening, an upper low lifting NNE across the TN Valley region will spread a few showers as far west as our KY Pennyrile region counties, maybe southwest IN as well. For Saturday evening and overnight, more organized convection will accompany the approach of a cold front. The damaging wind and hail threat is mainly driven by elevated CAPE, decent mid level lapse rates coincident with a nice theta-e drop from the 3-6km layer down to the lowest 3km seen on model cross sections.
A closed upper low forming near KOMA could provide for some wraparound showers in the eastern CWA on Saturday.
A back-side, weak low pressure trough will slide through the region this evening through Saturday afternoon.
Satellite imagery suggests the upper low is situated near the MS/TN/GA border with some bands of light showers across the forecast area. Discussion: Well defined upper level low is currently situated across northern Mississippi this morning. This upper low will continue to move toward the northeast today. Areas of showers are expected to increase in coverage later this morning as moisture increases associated with the upper low. Showers and storms will be quick to move out this evening and overnight as the upper low pulls north of the area. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday but still warm with highs in the lower 70's.
Thanks to a building upper level ridge, however, morning lows today were much warmer than yesterday's. This warming trend in temperatures (both daytime highs and overnight lows) will continue through this weekend as the ridge continues to assert its influence over the area.
1254 PM MDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Cold front currently entering northeast Colorado will continue to move east through the forecast area today. Cooler temperatures seem most likely in northwest corner of the area, where clouds will be the most dominant, but ahead of the front temperatures could reach the upper 70s to near 80. Tonight, the main upper trough axis will move through bringing good chances for rain and snow. It will be breezy and cooler with highs in the lower 50s.
It may accelerate along a coastal boundary where dewpoints in the lower 70s F will support substantial instability.
132 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 High pressure across most of the eastern United States will maintain dry and warmer weather for one last day Shower chances return tonight and Saturday as weak low pressure crosses the area.
259 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday) A cutoff cyclone currently sits with its center over NW Alabama with several rain bands currently rotating through Georgia. A cold front will extend from this system through the Southeastern CONUS with dewpoints and PWATS rebounding Saturday night as the low pressure system pulls warm, moist air out of the Gulf.
a large upper level trough approaches the forecast area tonight, moving through the area during the day Saturday then east of the area Saturday night with an amplifying ridge axis to our west. With 2" soil temperatures across Kansas (per Kansas mesonet) currently in the lower 60s to around 80 degrees, it will be hard for any accumulations to develop and should be limited to grassy areas. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the lower to upper 30s with high temperatures Saturday in the middle 40s to lower 50s.
Saturday looks to be a very warm day behind a weak dry boundary pushing eastward out of Mexico and ahead of a cold front that moves through Saturday night. Cold front moves through from north to south mainly after midnight Saturday night with moderate to strong winds developing behind it.
Water vapor imagery highlights a mid to upper-level low moving northeast into the Ohio River Valley, a long-wave trough spreading east across the Rockies, and a southern-stream short wave sliding across the Yucatan. The mean-layer ridge is displaced well to the southeast into the Central Caribbean. High pressure centered to the southeast of Bermuda reaches west-southwest to near the Bahamas, its western extent is limited by the lower heights scouring the Gulf of Mexico. FORECAST The long wave trough over the Rockies and an additional punch of Pacific energy near the Baja will spread east tonight through Saturday night, nearly phasing as they reach the longitude of the Mississippi River Valley.
1046 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Radar this morning shows showers spreading into our southeast counties once again around an upper level low centered near Fayetteville. This activity is expected to increase in coverage into the afternoon thanks to daytime heating, with likely pops in our southeast counties and slight to low chance pops elsewhere, before activity diminishes quickly this evening as the upper low exits stage right. A few thunderstorms are also anticipated today as cool mid-level temps associated with the upper low (500mb temps of -17C on the 12Z OHX sounding) will allow for some weak instability of a few hundred J/Kg. (Today through Saturday) Well-defined low pressure system is currently located over North Mississippi and will continue its trek northeastward across our area today. Tomorrow temps will be much warmer, with most of the area reaching the 80s.
(Tonight) Dense cloud cover and light rain/drizzle will continue through the early evening across the Tennessee Valley as a slow-moving area of low pressure passes across the area. This area of low pressure will gradually shift to the northeast overnight, and rain will taper off.
This will bring a weak cold front south through the area tonight, which will bring north northwest surface winds by tomorrow. Cooler air will filter in tonight behind the front with lows up to 5 degrees cooler than this morning, especially across the far southwest Texas Panhandle. The upper trough axis will also swing across West Texas tomorrow and coupled with a secondary surge of 850mb winds on the back side of the cyclogenesis now over Iowa, winds will become breezy again tomorrow afternoon.
Another cold front moves through tomorrow, bringing a slight chance (at least 15%) of scattered strong to severe storms in the afternoon and evening hours across the Mid-South.
(Tomorrow through Friday) A cold front will sweep southeast across the area Saturday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Temperatures will begin to fall during the afternoon following the passage of the cold front.
1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 (Today and tonight) As an upper level trough approaches the Great Plains today, lee cyclogenesis in southeast Colorado will lead to breezy west- southwest winds this afternoon. A quick moving cold front will begin to dive through the forecast area very late tonight shifting winds to the north.
1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Radar this morning shows showers spreading into our southeast counties once again around an upper level low centered near Fayetteville. This activity is expected to increase in coverage into the afternoon thanks to daytime heating, with likely pops in our southeast counties and slight to low chance pops elsewhere, before activity diminishes quickly this evening as the upper low exits stage right. A few thunderstorms are also anticipated today as cool mid-level temps associated with the upper low (500mb temps of -17C on the 12Z OHX sounding) will allow for some weak instability of a few hundred J/Kg. (Today through Saturday) Well-defined low pressure system is currently located over North Mississippi and will continue its trek northeastward across our area today. Tomorrow temps will be much warmer, with most of the area reaching the 80s.
318 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Low pressure over the Southern Appalachians will drift north and across the area through tonight, bringing clouds, showers and even a few storms.
1117 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Update Had a discussion with the DNR earlier and despite the lower wind speeds today they feel that a Red Flag Warning is still desirable across the Manistee National Forest and portions of west central/central Lwr MI. High pressure overhead will result in light winds today and continued near-record high temperatures. Saturday will be similar today as the trend in the models to delay the cold front continues.
Brush from weak low pressure system to the south provides greater coverage of high cloud tonight and into Saturday, but potential for precipitation is low. Largely a persistence forecast today as SE MI remains under the influence of eastern CONUS upper level ridging.
145 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 An upper level low brings showers tonight through Saturday evening.
(This evening through Saturday) Storms are expected to form along a cold front in Kansas late this afternoon and evening, possibly extending southward into northern Oklahoma along the dryline. The aforementioned cold front will move through most of the forecast area late tonight, bringing cooler temperatures behind it. Morning lows will see a gradient of lower 40s in northwest Oklahoma to mid 60s in southeast Oklahoma; likewise, afternoon highs will range from upper 50s in northwest Oklahoma to the lower 80s in southeast Oklahoma.
A high pressure ridge, centered to the southeast, will be over the region on Saturday.
1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 (Rest of Today) A cool, mainly overcast day will be in store for the Tennessee Valley region as an area of low pressure slowly pushes northward across the region.
Winds are expected to become breezy again late Saturday morning and shift to a cooler northwesterly flow, with temperatures will remaining closer to normal in the mid 70s to mid 80s. This is due to an upper-level trough to our north and an associated surface cold front tracking into the Big country by Saturday morning.
Moving into the overnight hours, some mid-level cloud cover settles over the area ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the northern plains 12z Sat which heads east into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun.
417 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Currently, a mid-level cutoff low is moving northeast through the southeast United States, forced out of its early week position by an incoming longwave trough. The longwave trough in the western CONUS will continue to move east, deepening with time. At the surface, low pressure lee of the Colorado Rockies, connected to weak low pressure in the Upper Midwest via a cold front, will move east across the Plains.
This is indicative of the general ridging pattern we remain in with generally benign weather expected with dry weather through at least Saturday.
Dry weather with a mix of sun and clouds continues as we head into the weekend, with temperatures trending warmer.
(Rest of tonight) The low pressure system that brought showers earlier today has now moved off to the northeast and is over the Carolinas as of 02z.
556 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Storms are expected to form along a cold front in Kansas late this afternoon and evening, possibly extending southward into northern Oklahoma along the dryline. The aforementioned cold front will move through most of the forecast area late tonight, bringing cooler temperatures behind it. Morning lows will see a gradient of lower 40s in northwest Oklahoma to mid 60s in southeast Oklahoma; likewise, afternoon highs will range from upper 50s in northwest Oklahoma to the lower 80s in southeast Oklahoma.
(This afternoon through Saturday) A cutoff cyclone currently sits with its center over NW Alabama with several rain bands currently rotating through Georgia. A cold front will extend from this system through the Southeastern CONUS with dewpoints and PWATS rebounding Saturday night as the low pressure system pulls warm, moist air out of the Gulf.
Dry and warmer conditions still on tap for this weekend as high pressure builds in aloft. The warmer temperatures will increase snowmelt and flooding potential, especially in Camas Prairie and portions of Harney county.
642 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Currently, a mid-level cutoff low is moving northeast through the southeast United States, forced out of its early week position by an incoming longwave trough. The longwave trough in the western CONUS will continue to move east, deepening with time. At the surface, low pressure lee of the Colorado Rockies, connected to weak low pressure in the Upper Midwest via a cold front, will move east across the Plains.
611 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 (Tonight) Dense cloud cover and light rain/drizzle will continue through the early evening across the Tennessee Valley as a slow-moving area of low pressure passes across the area. This area of low pressure will gradually shift to the northeast overnight, and rain will taper off.
* Much cooler for Saturday, but warming back to above normal for the next work-week. The main upper trough will continue to approach the area and precipitation will move in from the southwest across the area tonight and as the upper trough swings through tomorrow - showers with a small chance for a thunderstorm will be possible.
Rest of short term forecast on track with mild/breezy conditions overnight ahead of cold front. Taking a quick look at the 00Z model data, still appears that strong to severe storms will likely develop ahead of cold front across northwest Arkansas by mid to late afternoon Saturday. (Tomorrow through Friday) A cold front will sweep southeast across the area Saturday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Temperatures will begin to fall during the afternoon following the passage of the cold front.
839 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Shower activity has diminished with high pressure builds over the Peninsula through Saturday. Lows will be a degree or two cooler but otherwise no major difference.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to be around 5 degrees warmer tonight compared to last night, so freeze concerns are limited to the traditionally colder locations where the growing season hasn't fully returned yet.
705 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Shower chances return tonight and Saturday as weak low pressure crosses the area.
The 00z evening sounding at KEY revealed continued drying throughout the column, particularly in the lower troposphere. Geopotential heights were quasi-steady, although there were some subtle rising heights sampled in the mid-levels associated with ridging continuing to build across the Florida Peninsula in the wake of the unsettled weather for much of the week. The Florida Keys will remain sandwiched between the aforementioned ridge to the east and an upper-level trough in the Midwest.
Currently, a cold front extends from southeast Minnesota across northeast Kansas and into the northern Texas Panhandle. Some severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the cold front across portions of Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas. As the cold front gets closer to the Mid-South on Saturday, showers and thunderstorms will move into eastern Arkansas in the afternoon and then spread east during the evening hours. Another cold front moves through tomorrow, bringing a slight chance (at least 15%) of scattered strong to severe storms in the afternoon and evening hours across the Mid-South.
For late today and this evening, an upper low lifting NNE across the TN Valley region will spread a few showers as far west as our KY Pennyrile region counties, maybe southwest IN as well. For Saturday evening and overnight, more organized convection will accompany the approach of a cold front. The damaging wind and hail threat is mainly driven by elevated CAPE, decent mid level lapse rates coincident with a nice theta-e drop from the 3-6km layer down to the lowest 3km seen on model cross sections.
854 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Weak high pressure will build across the region on Saturday.
911 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Showers are coming to an end this evening as an upper low moves out of the region. Saturday will be a mostly sunny and dry day as weak ridging builds overhead.
Morning lows in the lower to mid 60s under partly cloudy skies. High pressure will build over the Southeast as an area of low pressure over the Midsouth and Ohio Valley fills into the evening hours Saturday.
Cooler temperatures and breezy winds today will be followed by a warming trend over the weekend and lighter winds.
North Dakota continues to sit under southwest flow with a trough to the west down through the Rockies and Four Corners region. A transition to ridging aloft is expected to take place this weekend, ushering in warmer temperatures with an initially dry forecast.
1042 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Storms are expected to form along a cold front in Kansas late this afternoon and evening, possibly extending southward into northern Oklahoma along the dryline. The aforementioned cold front will move through most of the forecast area late tonight, bringing cooler temperatures behind it. Morning lows will see a gradient of lower 40s in northwest Oklahoma to mid 60s in southeast Oklahoma; likewise, afternoon highs will range from upper 50s in northwest Oklahoma to the lower 80s in southeast Oklahoma.
A cold front will approach from the west late tonight brining chances of showers to the area. Further upstream, a deep trough is digging into the plains. Later tonight, a cold front will begin to approach the area bringing with it an increase in showers.
(Today and tonight) A cold front located near Highway 86 as of 2 AM will continue to sweep south this morning. Breezy northerly winds and cold air advection behind the front will lead to cooler high temperatures today. Along with calming winds late tonight, overnight temperatures will fall to near or below freezing in the southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains.
305 AM EDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Waning influence of upper ridging results in yet another summer-like day as highs climb back into the lower 80s.
(Today and tonight) The cold front has already made it to around Enid to Elk City early this morning.
252 AM EDT Sat Apr 15 2023 An area of low pressure will move away to the NE this morning. Weak high pressure will follow. Another cold front will approach late Sunday. The mid/upper low will be lifting out of the area this morning. Subsidence in the rear of the departing trough should produce enough subsidence to keep POP isolated. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight as weak high pressure builds over the region. The upper level trough will be approaching from the lower Mississippi Valley region Sunday. A cold front will move into the Appalachians during the afternoon, then progress east across central NC Sunday night. The cold front should pass through during the night.
High pressure will settle across FL today as progressive upper ridging builds from the southwest. Low level ridging situated across southern FL will allow a west-southwesterly flow to setup across the local area. Due to a slight delay in the Atlantic sea breeze coastal highs will push into the low 80s while inland areas read in the mid/upper 80s. Showers and storms will build across the forecast area on Sunday and into Sunday evening ahead of a cold front pushing across the southeastern US.
228 AM MDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Upper trough axis will slide east into the Dakotas today. In the meantime, high pressure will build into our western zones to start a dry warming trend. Otherwise, not much in the way of any weather impacts for the remainder of the weekend as high pressure dominates the area Sunday.
Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected over the weekend along with lighter winds. A weak cold front is making its way through the region this afternoon with scattered showers mainly along and north of the I-40 corridor. The front should clear the area by late tonight, giving way to a weak ridge. For Saturday and Sunday, expect temperatures to warm as weak ridging arrives to the area.
1230 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 (Rest of tonight) The low pressure system that brought showers earlier today has now moved off to the northeast and is over the Carolinas as of 02z.
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the northern plains 12z Sat which heads east into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb closed low embedded in a deep trough over the lower Great Lakes 12z Tue with a trough in the western U. The trough in the western U.
Models agree rather well in the overall pattern heading into mid- week with increasing heights as upper level ridging builds eastward into the Plains.
A ridge of high pressure returns to the Desert Southwest this weekend, allowing temperatures to climb above normal once again. An upper level trough will approach the region midweek, though substantial uncertainty remains regarding both strength and timing of this system. High pressure building over the region will bring warmer temperatures back to the region.