Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dense fog is in place across the lower terrain of SE Oregon and lower Snake Plain in Idaho. Above the fog, high clouds are on the increase as a low pressure system moves onto the CA coast.
Coupled with this is a series of statically stable layers in the low- and mid-levels. Cool northerlies permit modest cold advection, with temperatures at all available surface observing platforms reporting the lower 70s at this late morning hour. Sprawling high pressure over the eastern third of the United States will maintain gentle to occasionally moderate northerly breezes through Wednesday. Thereafter, breezes will veer to the northeast to east, then to the southeast late in the week, as a strong cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico.
At the surface an area of low pressure extends from eastern Colorado through northwest Kansas and a trough continues to the south into northwest Oklahoma. The main mid level energy and frontogentic band still appears to be along the I-70 corridor and the highest QPF and snowfall totals continue to be in these areas.
Skies will be partly cloudy as temperatures warm into the low 70s.
1047 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 Dry conditions will prevail through late Wednesday under high pressure.
1206 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 High pressure over the Florida Peninsula will move eastward into the Atlantic waters today as a weak cold front over North Florida moves southward. With the dew points remaining i the 40s to 50s over South Florida today and the warmer temperatures, the relative humidity over the region will fall into the lower to mid 30s over most areas, except lower to mid 40s over the metro areas. High pressure builds in across the eastern CONUS today with mid-level ridging across South Florida. Overnight lows will be in the low 50s near the lake, with mid to upper 50s elsewhere, except near 60 closer to the Atlantic coast.
- Confidence is increasing in travel impacts from light freezing rain this evening and overnight. In the wake of a weak short wave, dense freezing fog is expanding southeast into south central MN with visibilities around 1/4 mile from Mankato and Waseca northwest into the Fargo and Grand Forks areas. Freezing fog covers the rest of the area, but visibilities are generally greater than a mild and a half. Confidence is increasing in the potential for freezing rain becoming the predominant precipitation type with the light precipitation that is expected to move in from the Dakotas later this evening and spread across the region from west to east.
1122 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023 (Now through Wednesday) The next 36 hours at a glance: Dense fog this morning, warm temperatures this afternoon, patchy fog overnight tonight, then breezy to windy southerly winds on Wendesday and even warmer temperatures. Mid level ridging and drier air will move in from the west today, helping to clear skies by the afternoon, bringing lots of sunshine and warmer temperatures than we saw yesterday. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s across most of the area.
Current satellite imagery shows a deep upper-level trough draped across the West Coast that is forecast to push a cold front across northern Arizona tonight.
1208 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 High pressure will build across and offshore the Carolinas and mid Atlantic through Wednesday. At the surface, weak high pressure will be in place over eastern NC today. The high will shift north into the southern Mid-Atlantic tonight, with a light flow today becoming east- northeast tomorrow morning.
High pressure will gradually shift east, resulting in LL flow becoming more SW/S by Wednesday.
247 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 Generally fair conditions will prevail through midweek as high pressure moves offshore.
1129 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023 (Today and tonight) Low amplitude ridging embedded within zonal flow will remain over the Southern Plains as the next stronger trough moves into the Desert Southwest. Downslope flow will support warmer temperatures today ranging from 15-20 degrees warmer than average for this time of year. Winds will relax some this evening, and temperatures will get down into the low 40s in most places.
A cooler air mass will overspread the region Wednesday, which when coupled with mostly cloudy skies will result in highs ranging from the upper 20s along the SD border to lower/mid 40s near the KS/MO borders. Wednesday night: The powerful midlevel trough currently over CA is forecast to form a mid/upper-level low over KS Wednesday with that feature tracking into MO Wednesday night.
833 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2023 The weather disturbance that brought mixed precipitation, including some freezing rain overnight to portions of north- central MT has lifted NE into SK. Generally quiet conditions are expected across the area today as weak ridging following the previously mentioned disturbances and ahead of the next Pacific system moving inland translates across the area. Hoenisch Precipitation lingers along The Rocky Mountain Front and across southwest Montana, today; otherwise, expect a generally dry day, with low elevation highs ranging from the low 30s to the low 40s.
939 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2023 The previous threat of some light freezing rain has not materialized. Due to how dry the low-levels are, most may be virga, but occasional spots may see it reach the surface. For today, the freezing rain potential has decreased. Essentially, there's a very small chance (~15%) for precipitation to occur this morning from Billings through Miles City, and if it does occur, only about a 20% chance of it occurring as freezing rain. That chance of freezing rain increases for lower valleys that would see cooler surface temperatures.
252 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 High pressure will remain the primary feature through Wednesday.
Given the above, have undercut NBM dewpoints using consensus of short term guidance and have gone toward the high side of consensus and NBM percentile distributions for winds. Have thus elected to continue with the High Wind Watch. Wednesday evening into the nighttime hours, cold front crashes southward. Have gone with the high side of guidance winds accordingly and would not be surprised to see these trend upwards.
254 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023 The short term forecast is highlighted by a chance of snow and patchy fog, with cooler temperatures on Wednesday behind a cold front. Can't rule out some freezing rain or drizzle on the back side of precipitation, with soundings advertising a warm nose, but with moisture looking so limited and precipitation chances low anyways, not too concerned with this potential at this point. In the wake of the front, cooler air will filter in, but nothing close to the Arctic air intrusions we've seen so far this season.
152 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2023 A passing weather system will result in a cooler Wednesday afternoon with a shower or two possible over mountains of southeast Arizona during the early morning.
330 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 High pressure begins to weaken tonight into Wednesday though dry conditions will persist.
Fog is also likely overnight in these same locations, with the lowest visibilities likely in southeast Missouri. Increasing low-level southwest flow should advect the low stratus out of the area early in the day on Wednesday. High temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s are forecast across the area, with the highest readings in parts of central and southeast Missouri where the most sunshine is expected. An upper level low is expected to develop off the lee of the Rockies and move across the Plains Wednesday. Because of moist southerly flow, the low level jet will enhance moisture transport into the region.
A strong circulation of low pressure off the coast of northern California and southern Oregon is pushing Pacific moisture inland this afternoon. A midlevel trough of low pressure moving over northern Utah and Wyoming will interact with the moisture plume to bring precipitation to Lemhi County, ID and possibly parts of southwest Montana and southern Idaho County. A negatively tilted ridge of high pressure over much of the Northern Rockies will keep precipitation south of about I-90. The high pressure over the rest of the Northern Rockies will be conducive to fog formation in the valleys of western Montana, especially the Bitterroot, Missoula, and Mission Valleys. Clouds will decrease later on Wednesday as the ridge axis moves east.
Temps at mid morning were already running warmer compared to 24-hrs ago for most locations with upper 30s to mid 50s common.
328 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 Generally fair conditions will prevail through midweek as high pressure moves offshore.
The weather disturbance that brought mixed precipitation, including some freezing rain overnight to portions of north- central MT has lifted NE into SK. Generally quiet conditions are expected across the area today as weak ridging following the previously mentioned disturbances and ahead of the next Pacific system moving inland translates across the area. Hoenisch Precipitation lingers along The Rocky Mountain Front and across southwest Montana, today; otherwise, expect a generally dry day, with low elevation highs ranging from the low 30s to the low 40s.
Earlier reports of light freezing rain along MT-Highway 2 in Roosevelt County were also brief and isolated. The system will bring a cold front through the area this morning. There will be enough moisture with this system for a chance of a mix of light rain, freezing rain and light snow depending on the temperatures at the surface and aloft when the precipitation occurs. The front will partially mix out the low level inversion across the northern half of the forecast area that have kept temperatures in places like Glasgow, Whitewater, Scobey and Wolf Point colder than the rest of the region the last few days.
A surface cold front is placed north of the International Border, with observed temperatures in the single digits to lower teens in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, while current temps across northern North Dakota are generally in the 20s. This front will slowly drift south today, bringing cooler temperatures through the next few days. Winds are expected to remain light and often variable through the day today before an associated cold frontal boundary passes through from north to south tonight. This will result in steady, yet light northwest winds that will begin to filter in a little cooler air.
Tonight: Upper level trough moving into the central Rockies will allow for warm air advection to kick in. Forecast soundings indicate the mid levels in the column moistening up, but the low levels are quite dry. Low confidence on dense fog but nonetheless with temps at or below freezing a few slick spots are possible. Lows will range from the mid 20s along Hwy 20 to the lower 30s south. Forecast soundings indicate the low levels still quite dry so no pcpn expected during the day. By late afternoon, a digging trough moves into the central/southern Plains with low pressure along the Kansas/Oklahoma border south of Medicine Lodge, Kansas. Highs will range from the lower to mid 40s north to near 50 in far northeast Missouri.
Surface temperatures will end up near freezing so if fog does form. Good saturation in the low levels is noted with some lift. At this time surface temperatures look like they will be just above freezing when the potential for precipitation will be on the increase.
Light drizzle and patchy fog will occur overnight with a warm front.
Because of the cloud cover and southerly winds, expect much warmer temps tonight, with lows ranging from the low to mid 50s north of Interstate 30 to upper 50s across the remainder of the region.
206 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2023 20z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into southeast MT. Back door cold front from central ND into northeast NE.
Resulting warm front extends southeast through Kentucky and into middle/eastern TN by daybreak or thereabouts, Wed morning.
The question is how much will we be able to saturate the environment and how fast? If everything lines up there will be a brief 1 to 3 hour window where a band of light freezing rain moves through that causes a light glaze of ice on any untreated surfaces.
Mainly sunny skies can be expected the rest of the day with highs slightly above normal in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures will remain fairly mild overnight as a result of the overcast conditions, and have leaned more toward raw guidance blends for overnight lows ranging from the low 50s far west to the low 40s across the far east. If we stay socked in with low clouds and drizzle for a majority of the day, we'll struggle to reach the mid to upper 60s across the north, while we could reach the low to mid 70s across the south with more sunshine expected.
There is a little snow over the higher mountains yet, that should dissipate by sunset. An upper level ridge begins to build in from the west inducing NW dry subsident flow. Expect mainly minor winter travel impacts with slick roads and some blowing snow in the higher mountain passes.
The main cold front moves through the region Wednesday morning and with this much drier BL air arrives with NW winds (along with better mixing) and this should put an end to our fog impacts at least for daytime Wednesday into Wednesday night. Cluster analysis indicates that upper level ridging will be in place from the end of the week into the weekend.
At the surface, a broad area of low pressure currently resides over the central part of the country. May see some light snow develop across the eastern part of the area this evening on the nose of a stronger part of the low, but most of the models show the better chance of this occurring to the east of the area. Fog has lingered over the northeastern CWA today, and may do so through the evening until the frontal boundary associated with the low tracks across the region later tonight. High pressure will move in behind the front and will become the dominant feature over the CWA Wednesday and Wednesday night, keeping conditions dry. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the lower 20s across west central Minnesota and far northeastern South Dakota, to around 20 degrees across south central South Dakota.
The possible exception will revolve around chances of patchy fog late tonight through early Wednesday morning, with the highest chances around KLAL. High pressure will remain over the waters for the next couple of days, with no headlines expected.
559 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023 (The rest of this afternoon ) Very warm afternoon with expanding thermal ridge overhead, and temperatures are running a good 15-20 degrees above normal. By late in the day, low level moisture will begin to creep into southeast OK and eventually northwest AR ahead of the approaching strong cold front. Deepest moisture will be pushed well to the east, but scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are still expected to develop after 00z with modest moisture increase and steepening lapse rates with the approaching upper low.
735 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 Generally fair conditions will prevail through midweek as high pressure moves offshore.
This will in turn continue to strengthen low level southwesterly flow over North & Central Texas, resulting in even warmer temperatures for tomorrow. Otherwise, a cold front will move through the region Wednesday evening and overnight with breezy northwest winds continuing into the overnight hours and as the drier/cooler air advects south. /Issued 349 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023/ /Wednesday Night through Tuesday/ A strong cold front will be entering our northwest counties by Wednesday evening with strongly veered low level flow out ahead of it. Much cooler air will filter in behind the front and any ongoing grass fire activity will still have to contend with gusty winds and only steadily increasing RH values through the overnight hours.
NWRLY winds 5-10 kts becoming NNE/NE along the coast in the afternoon on Wed and generally light/variable elsewhere as the pgrad slackens with high pressure overhead and speeds under 10 kts. High pressure will become centered over the state Wed, then move offshore Thu.
943 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 Generally fair conditions will prevail through midweek as high pressure moves offshore.
The short term forecast is highlighted by a chance of snow and patchy fog, with cooler temperatures on Wednesday behind a cold front. Can't rule out some freezing rain or drizzle on the back side of precipitation, with soundings advertising a warm nose, but with moisture looking so limited and precipitation chances low anyways, not too concerned with this potential at this point. In the wake of the front, cooler air will filter in, but nothing close to the Arctic air intrusions we've seen so far this season.
610 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 Dry conditions will prevail through late Wednesday under high pressure.
Latest HRRR continues to show a very brief period of light rain Wednesday morning but freezing rain remaining west of the cwa. Surface temperatures will end up near freezing so if fog does form. Good saturation in the low levels is noted with some lift. At this time surface temperatures look like they will be just above freezing when the potential for precipitation will be on the increase.
However, sheltered valleys were dipping into the lower 40s.
424 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2023 20z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into southeast MT. Back door cold front from central ND into northeast NE.
Perhaps of greater concern and impact will be another round of freezing fog and/or very low clouds spreading through portions of NE Montana tonight through Wednesday morning, and again over the following few nights. That low cloud deck from the north will signal a dry cold front. The low clouds could transition into a fog bank, especially for KGGW by about 04Z tonight.
848 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 Generally fair conditions will prevail through midweek as high pressure moves offshore.
549 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2023 Backdoor cold front over S. Arthur Over the next several day, the only chance for any precipitation will be during the day Wednesday, and that will be limited to the higher terrain. Amounts do not look especially high, only around a tenth of an inch in total of liquid equivalent, and an inch or two of snow in the high mountains. Temperatures will continue to be very mild through the remainder of the workweek, as ridging continues to dominate the northern Rockies weather. Expecting highs to be in the upper 30 to near 40 for Wednesday, with the moisture associated with that low cutting under the low bringing more cloud cover to the area.
Quiescent conditions continue for the rest of today as the area remains under the influence of retreating high pressure. Latest surface analysis shows an occluded low over the Badger State and another nascent area of low pressure over the OK/KS border. Cloud deck will lower by Wednesday morning as southerly low level flow introduces weak theta-e ridging and saturated profiles below 800mb. Isentropic ascent ahead of the aforementioned warm front will likely produce drizzle for much of the day. Thick low clouds will temper diurnal temperature ranges as mild morning mins in the low to mid 50s limp into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Deeper moisture remained over the lower MS river valley and along the TX golf coast. As for the notion of warm ground temps, the latest 2 inch soil temps from the KSU mesonet show ground temps are in the lower to middle 30s and increasing clouds from the west may limit the amount of insolation received today. It is hard to get to caught up in the higher QPF and snowfall amounts from the 00Z model runs since the system will likely remain progressive and there may only be two to three hours of snow at any given location. There could be a brief period with some freezing rain as the precip transitions, but forecast soundings show this to be short lived with the column cooling down quickly for more snow than rain.
1200 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 High pressure will remain the primary feature through Wednesday.
343 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 High pressure over the Southeast States will move offshore Wednesday into Thu. A strong cold front accompanied with scattered showers and possibly a rumble of thunder will push across the area Thu night into Fri. Cold high pressure will follow and build in for the upcoming weekend. Highs near 70 into the lower 70s Thursday as WAA increases ahead of a cold front.
Fog remains a persistent issue, which will hopefully improve with a cold front that will enter the area into this morning.
(Today) Low cloud cover that slid in overnight helped keep the lows 10-20 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, with current temps at 08Z in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Cloud cover will linger through the day as a warm front lifts through and brings a few showers.
356 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 Surface ridging will hold over the region through today. Late Thursday, low pressure will pass to the northwest into the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front across the area Thursday night.
1016 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2023 20z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into southeast MT. Back door cold front from central ND into northeast NE.
A high pressure extending from the central Gulf of Mexico, across Florida and into the Atlantic is maintaining gentle to moderate mostly northerly breezes across the Keys. A ridge stretching from the Gulf of Mexico to off the southeast Atlantic coast will maintain gentle to moderate broadly northerly breezes through the overnight period.
Temperatures will begin to rise above normal with highs in the low 70s and overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.
Winds tomorrow to pickup as the approach of latest cold front currently in western Oklahoma.
1153 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2023 Dry conditions will prevail through late Wednesday under high pressure.
Model soundings and radar scans suggest most, if not all, precip so far has fallen in the form of freezing drizzle or drizzle. Temps across the area have been hovering in the low 30s to upper 20s, so I fully expect some slick spots on roadways that haven't been treated. Daytime highs look to hover near or just above the freezing mark today.
Wavy pattern aloft with the next storm system pushing into the California coast, while upper ridging was located over the central U. On Wednesday, the upper level wave will shift east into the plains and help to strengthen the low pressure system. Much of the area looks to be split between two main bands of precipitation, with drier air in between near the track of the low. Central MO will have the higher chances of precipitation with the deformation band and moisture wrapping around the low, while parts of southwest MO may not see much precipitation at all. Temperatures will be much colder (although closer to normal) than we are expecting on Wednesday, roughly 15 to 25 degrees cooler as the low and front push through.
/CME/ Wednesday night through Thursday: A cold front will push through the Ozarks and ArkLaTex Wednesday evening, approaching the ArkLaMiss Delta region close to daybreak Thursday.
Fog is also likely overnight in these same locations, with the lowest visibilities likely in southeast Missouri. Increasing low-level southwest flow should advect the low stratus out of the area early in the day on Wednesday. High temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s are forecast across the area, with the highest readings in parts of central and southeast Missouri where the most sunshine is expected. An upper level low is expected to develop off the lee of the Rockies and move across the Plains Wednesday. Because of moist southerly flow, the low level jet will enhance moisture transport into the region. 50% of ensemble members have temperatures from Columbia to Quincy dropping near to just below freezing through mid-day Thursday.
346 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 Deepening low pressure will bring the likelihood for showers today, followed by widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday.