Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today through tomorrow night, weak upper trough extending from the NW CONUS to the ArkLaTex will continue to weaken as upper ridging builds to our west. At the surface, high pressure will continue to dominate the Great Lakes region, resulting in westerly upslope surface winds in the Panhandles. Those weak winds aloft suggest storm motions will tend be around 10 mph so, with available moisture continuing to run toward the high side of climatology - our 00z RAOB was just under the 90th percentile for this time of year - heavy rain rates and additional flooding will be our main concern over the next 48 hours.
1115 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Key Messages: 1) Cooler conditions with periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue into Sunday. Under this precip and widespread cloud cover, cooler conditions in the 50s and 60s are being observed at this time. Do think any stronger development will be very isolated at best and likely confined to around the higher terrain. If not, then would expect any stronger development to stay confined to over and near the higher terrain. Will see the upper low/trough in place really weaken by Monday, with some weak ridging aloft expected. Pattern and flow still look to be really weak, while the low/mid levels maintain some type of easterly component.
321 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Slow moving low pressure will meander around the New England area and adjacent Atlantic coastal waters through much of the week. Cooler and mostly dry weather is anticipated. Light easterly upslope flow has clouds banked up against the southeast ridges with an area spilling west across Indiana to Butler County.
353 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 The upper level trough that stalled out over western Kansas overnight was gradually weakening. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer due to more insolation.
Low pressure aloft is east of the area as high pressure aloft builds across the central CONUS. Flow around these systems will help to build in high pressure at the surface through the short term. More of the same Monday before a cold front brings beautiful weather to the area midweek. Schc showers and storms with cold front from the east. Drier air will be in place as the high pressure continues to build west.
Center of an upper level high pressure area will continue to drift towards the CWA. While we would expect an upper high to suppress convection, there is a weak inverted trough pinwheeling around the underbelly of the high.
and Monday The main highlights from this forecast period revolve around wildfire smoke originating from Quebec today and a cold front dropping south across the region for Monday. Due to the presence of smoke, lowered high temperatures by a few degrees with readings in the low to middle 80s away from the lake, and middle 70s along the lake. The haze and smoke will likely continue into the evening before a cold front drops south across the region sometime late tonight or early Monday morning. Due to the cold front moving through the region during the morning, lowered high temperatures by a few degrees with readings in the upper 70s to low 80s away from the lake, and low to middle 70s along the lake.
(Today and Tonight) Lows in the lower to mid 60s look reasonable this morning, based on area observations upstream, with some on and off cloud cover overnight. Most model guidance moves the upper low just off the northeastern seaboard further east early this morning.
A weak upper level low pressure system will bring extensive low clouds and some cooling to the area today.
Broad high pressure dominates much of the CONUS, with a high center anchored over southern Canada and the northern to central plains. Our temperatures will bounce back to near or a little above average with the ridge axis well downstream.
Overall ridging in place across the Desert Southwest will keep temperatures at or above normal across the region through Monday.
Temperatures will be above average today, then cooler weather returns.
701 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 (Today and tonight) The axis of an upper level trough will be centered over the region by this afternoon coupled with broad cyclonic flow and associated differential cyclonic vorticity advection across the area will provide some forcing for ascent during the afternoon and evening hours once daytime heating has reached its peak.
628 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 (Today through Monday) An upper low continues to spin off the coast of New England, with a trough extending southward and then southwestward to another very weak upper low in the northeastern Gulf. For Monday, the trough in the northeast Gulf weakens and moves into the Atlantic, leaving behind a weak flow regime with very broad troughing south of the Northern Plains ridge.
However, dew points are still forecast to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s today, with the higher dew points in NE AL and southern middle TN.
930 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Slow moving low pressure will meander around the New England area and adjacent Atlantic coastal waters through much of the week. Cooler and mostly dry weather is anticipated. Upper low is expected to move in a cyclonic gyre over a two day period.
Bottom Line up Front: Moisture axis will shift to the south and west putting the higher risk for heavy rain in the southwestern portions of the CWA.
Tides will be heightened as we move into the highest portion of a spring tide cycle today and Monday.
Elevated shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through much of the upcoming week, along with cooler temperatures. For today, an upper level low currently at 32N/139W will continue to track closer to the southern CA coast. As the closed upper level low moves into central California, southeasterly flow aloft will allow for additional moisture to stream north into the region.
12Z RAOB depicted weak mid-level lapse rates (due to strong high pressure parked aloft), but with ample isolation and dew points in the 60s at the surface, instability sufficient for diurnally driven thunderstorms still looks likely for this afternoon. An omega blocking pattern remains in place through the short term, so expect more of the same overall. Overall, with the high pressure from the omega block centered over the northern plains, and surface boundaries remaining in eastern Montana and southern Canada, the forcing mechanism look limited primarily to daytime heating.
912 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 High pressure will persist into Monday.
This low level moisture will be enough to provide chances of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and early evening. With the increased cloud cover, high temperatures today will be 3-5 degrees cooler but still remain above normal.
The main concerns this forecast remains on the backdoor cold front due to drop through the area tonight through Monday, with associated precipitation chances and cooler temperatures. Have kept pops on the low side, though locations that do get showers may get a brief heavy downpour. It will be another warm day with temperatures inland in the 80s to around 90, and about 20 degrees cooler near Lake Superior. Behind the front, east to northeast flow off Lake Superior will bring even cooler temperatures to areas near Lake Superior on Monday.
629 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 (Today and Tonight) Lows in the lower to mid 60s look reasonable this morning, based on area observations upstream, with some on and off cloud cover overnight. Most model guidance moves the upper low just off the northeastern seaboard further east early this morning.
424 AM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023 The weather will slowly dry out and remain seasonably warm through early this upcoming week as an upper ridge makes itself comfortable over the central US. At this hour an upper level high sits centered over the Northern Plains, flanked on the east and west by two upper lows. For the next several days, the upper pattern remains stagnant as the ridge settles over the region. In terms of sensible weather impacts: conditions will be warmer and generally dry. Highs will generally be near to above average, reaching into the 80s and perhaps the low 90s near south central SD.
441 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Today and tonight: Some lingering showers have tapered off as dry air wraps around the backside of the upper low. An area of upper high pressure will promote subsidence which should preclude convection.
This is in response to post-tropical cyclone Arlene slowly swirling eastward and out of our forecast area. Increasing solar insolation should allow temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s, with the highest temperatures favored in the Lower to Middle Keys, where bouts of sunshine will be more frequent.
At the surface, a weak inverted trough over our region will slowly drift westward through tonight, with a weak ridge building into the area from the northeast. High temperatures Monday will be a bit cooler, ranging from 86 to 91 degrees inland, with lower 80s at the beaches.
Transient high pressure over the northern Great Basin has allowed for much more summer like interior temperatures in the 90s with thin and and easily cleared marine stratus along the coast. Strengthening low pressure off of the Southern California coast will begin to much more strongly influence the area early this week. 2 inches, mostly in the lower midlevels of the atmosphere. Models currently show the strongest cells firing off along South Fork Ridge and eastern Lake County.
The lingering weak upper level low over NE Nevada and NW Utah will provide moisture to much of northern Nevada again today. However, a second upper level low currently off the southern CA coast will drift eastward bringing impacts to the region. Moisture and instability from this low will bring more shower and thunderstorm activity to northern and central Nevada Monday afternoon and evening. The heavier showers on Monday are expected to be north of the Highway 50 corridor.
Thin cirrus is evident on visible satellite imagery, streaming in from the northwest associated with weak influence of the right-most edge of an upper ridge west of us. Mid/upper heights with that upper ridge are locally increased in that vicinity due to previous convection that has also added some convective debris clouds. /86/ Today and tonight: Some lingering showers have tapered off as dry air wraps around the backside of the upper low. An area of upper high pressure will promote subsidence which should preclude convection.
619 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 (Sunday through Monday) A lingering upper-level trough stretching from the Texas Panhandle southeastward into Louisiana and along the northern gulf coast to maintain an unsettled weather pattern across the region through the short-term period ending Monday afternoon.
633 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 High pressure will persist into Monday.
553 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Today and tonight: Some lingering showers have tapered off as dry air wraps around the backside of the upper low. An area of upper high pressure will promote subsidence which should preclude convection.
While winds at the surface are calm during the overnight hours, daytime winds will remain northeasterly as a strong upper ridge is located over the middle of the country, stretching well into Canada. High pressure is located well to the northwest while an upper low is located just offshore of New England. The highest chances are in Southeast Missouri, but only peak at 30%.
The upper level trough that stalled out over western Kansas overnight was gradually weakening. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer due to more insolation.
(Today) In the very near term, showers and isolated storms are trying to redevelop early this morning across portions of eastern Oklahoma on the eastern edge of a mid-level shear axis and within the 700 mb theta-e ridge. Guidance is similar though on some drier air beginning to work into northwest Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma this afternoon as the mid-level flow turns more easterly in response to the anomalous ridge along the U. The combination of drying and a slightly weaker and broadening trough axis extending from southeast Colorado into southeast Oklahoma should limit thunderstorm chances compared to yesterday with the highest chances across the southwestern half of the CWA.
The upper low over the FL Panhandle continues to spin and now is wrapping drier air aloft over the E Gulf and local area as seen in water vapor imagery. Zonal flow aloft expected over the state through the week south of broad E CONUS troughing. Surface frontal boundary drops south across the peninsula today into Monday followed by weak ridging building over SE U.
616 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 (Today) In the very near term, showers and isolated storms are trying to redevelop early this morning across portions of eastern Oklahoma on the eastern edge of a mid-level shear axis and within the 700 mb theta-e ridge. Guidance is similar though on some drier air beginning to work into northwest Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma this afternoon as the mid-level flow turns more easterly in response to the anomalous ridge along the U. The combination of drying and a slightly weaker and broadening trough axis extending from southeast Colorado into southeast Oklahoma should limit thunderstorm chances compared to yesterday with the highest chances across the southwestern half of the CWA.
929 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 With cooler northerly flow, temperatures will be cooler this week compared to last week.
Temperatures have started off cooler today with the cloud deck, so it might be a matter of diurnal convection with an abundant amount of moisture. For land areas, the mid-level trough will continue to have an influence on general convective development today in addition to diurnal heating and the sea breeze. The atmosphere will stabilize Sunday night while the mid-level trough simultaneously begins to depart off to the east going into Monday.
As such, some of the highest rainfall accumulations thus far have occurred in these areas with generally 1-1. However, despite this, convection near the Lower Keys has been struggling to fire and maintain themselves compared to areas south and east.
627 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 With cooler northerly flow, temperatures will be cooler this week compared to last week.
245 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 The broad high pressure will continue to push westward through the short term period as north-northwesterly flow begins to establish aloft.
An upper level low remains centered just south of our border over northwest Utah. Models continue to show this low to weaken and lift north this afternoon into the evening. 50 inches of rainfall in 6 hrs over the mountains across our Southeast Highlands, Southern Hills/Albion mtns, and the Central mtns (especially the western half) as this low lifts north over our western areas through this evening.
Adding to this scenario, high-resolution models suggest that a closed low pressure circulation over the northern Great Basin/Snake River Plain will meander north and reach Lemhi County/southwest Montana by this evening. This low pressure will enhance some of the convection, however the high-resolution models are struggling to reach consensus on storm initiation. By Monday afternoon, shower and isolated thunderstorm activity associated with a weak closed low pressure circulation is expected to spread eastward from north central Idaho to most of western Montana. By Monday evening, models suggest that the closed low pressure will become an open wave (low pressure trough) and move northeast into Canada.
1250 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Slow moving low pressure will meander around the New England area and adjacent Atlantic coastal waters through much of the week. Cooler and mostly dry weather is anticipated. Upper low is expected to move in a cyclonic gyre over a two day period.
Patches of high- to mid-level clouds are expected to move in from the north late tonight into Monday ahead of a very weak (and dry) surface cold front, with winds turning more northerly behind it. The upcoming week will be dominated by a large upper level low situated off eastern Canada. The models are in fair consensus on the strength and timing and location of this low. What this will mean is cooler, nearer to normal, temperatures. As the large upper level low cycles, it will bring short to long wave troughs across the region.
Temperatures on Monday look to be a degree or two cooler with the increase in coverage and active sea/lake breeze and outward convective outflow propagation.
Highs today are expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday away from the coast with temperatures similar to a few degrees cooler at the coast. A trough of low pressure will position itself near central/Southern California for the first half of the week. The increased onshore flow will deepen the marine layer, bring gusty west winds to the mountains and deserts slopes, and bring cooler conditions.
336 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Cooler and drier air will move in behind cold front through Monday.
This activity is occurring along the leading edge of a pseudo dryline/cold front approaching from the northeast. Overnight low temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 60s. The dryline/cold front will settle just south of the region on Monday. Specifically, our region will be sandwiched between very strong ridging across the Intermountain West and troughing over the northeast CONUS.
As the high builds, an inverted trough over the coastal waters will move south. Lows Tonight will range from the low to mid 60s inland, to around 70 at the coast.
239 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 An upper low over the Northeast will keep temperatures near to below normal for early June. An upper low centered near the Gulf of Maine will continue to influence our CNY/NEPA weather through tomorrow night. Our eastern zones will experience clouds on the periphery of the low into this evening, then partial clearing. Temperatures will be below average for the time of year as cooler air is reinforced on northerly winds. shower chances will increase as the broad upper low retrogrades slightly and spins energy and deeper moisture around the system. Scattered showers seem plausible, although QPF should be on the light side as there is still dry air in the lower atmosphere to overcome.
152 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 High pressure will build into the area behind the front today and settle across the region tonight, before moving offshore on Monday. These clouds will slow our typical diurnal heating curve, while also resulting in afternoon highs 8 to 11 degrees below normal for early June! Highs ranging from the lower 70s north/northeast to the mid/upper 70s south/southwest. A weak upper level disturbance dropping south down the spine of the central and southern Appalachians, down the backside of the closed cyclone gyrating over New England, will enhance and prolong cloudiness across western portions of the forecast area.
Otherwise expect highs in the lower 90s. By midweek, a backdoor cold front will result in slightly cooler temperatures.
An additional slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will remain possible within the higher terrain of Northwest Arkansas and Northeast Oklahoma.
Otherwise, weak high pressure will prevail tnt with cooler temps.
1230 pm observations show upper level winds coming from the southeast to the northwest as the major upper level influence is coming from a large blocking high in the southern Canadian prairies. A weak upper low continues to circulate in southeast Colorado and an area of lift has led to a line of slow moving storms from around Meade to the Texas panhandle. Monday should have similar conditions to Sunday with the exception of a little more sun in the morning which should help to give us slightly warmer afternoon temperatures. With the low confidence of just where this lift sets up along with the already moist ground and good daytime heating. Highs should reach into the lower 80s.
Complicated surface analysis with a wedge of cooler air east of the Appalachians that has wrapped around the mountains.
340 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023 High pressure remains situated over the Northern Plains with a trough over the Northeast/east coast and another one over the west coast. Better coverage exists over western Kansas where the higher precipitable water axis is located.
Mid to upper 70s temperatures are common except for near the cooler water of Lake Huron. The cold front scheduled for Lower Mi late Monday, and now mainly Monday night for SE Mi, is shown in central Canada this afternoon. This moisture interacting with the cold front and southern fringes of the parent mid level wave has a respectable convective response in progress all across the region. This leaves very little moisture to work with as the low amplitude south fringe of the mid level wave sweeps through Lower Mi with minimal forcing, and even less for the actual cold front trailing farther behind for Monday night. Even shrouded sunshine is able to help with some prefrontal temperature recovery compared to this afternoon for highs in the lower 80s.
1032 AM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023 The weather will slowly dry out and remain seasonably warm through early this upcoming week as an upper ridge makes itself comfortable over the central US. At this hour an upper level high sits centered over the Northern Plains, flanked on the east and west by two upper lows. For the next several days, the upper pattern remains stagnant as the ridge settles over the region. In terms of sensible weather impacts: conditions will be warmer and generally dry. Highs will generally be near to above average, reaching into the 80s and perhaps the low 90s near south central SD.
As the weakening upper trough to our east also drifts further east, upper heights should be marginally rising this evening. As the upper ridge we have been discussing ad nauseam for several days continues to retrograde over southern Canada, the result will be a blocking pattern (a lopsided Omega, if you will) that becomes apparent on Monday. The notable difference that could impact afternoon shower and storm coverage will be the increases in boundary layer moisture as we begin to get weak southerlies as the influence of the deep layer troughing to our east slips further away. With surface dew points 2-3 F higher, expect afternoon storms to be a little more common and that should also result in temperatures 2-3 F cooler across the area Monday compared to today.
The next 24-36 hours will feature stable and dry conditions with a back-door cold front approaching the area from the north. The first one is the elimination of any PoPs for Monday afternoon as the presence of dry air and the timing of the cold front will spark convection south of the forecast area. The omega blocking pattern, featuring the continued upper ridge axis across the central CONUS with flanking troughs along both the east and west coasts with a persistent upper low over New England and one over SoCal will remain predominant through the week.
344 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 Seasonably warm conditions will persist through early this week before cooler air builds in for midweek and beyond.
Monday will bring increased shower and thunderstorms to the region as a closed low pushes eastward. With this upper low, temperatures are expected to drop back below normal for this time of year with much of the valley sitting in the mid to upper 80's. These cooler temperatures are expected to remain in place through the weekend.
(This afternoon through Monday) Northeasterly flow is present across the area as a result of the upper low off the New England coast and associated troughing southwest along the Mid-Atlantic coast and over Florida. However, moisture quality is likely to still remain on the lower end of favorability with limited and poor quality low-level moisture. Highs will range from the lower 90s west to upper 80s east. 5 inches look to focus across the western portions of the area tomorrow where weak troughing over the Lower MS Valley may contribute to a more typical picture of scattered showers and storms during the heat of the afternoon.
Moisture continues to increase in the lower levels as southeasterly surface flow pulls it up from the Gulf, so afternoon storms will continue to pose a flooding threat due to heavy rainfall.