Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
729 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 (Today through Thursday) The upper-level low will be locked in-between two ridges on Wednesday before starting to progress north into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast CONUS regions. With the low being nearly stationary over GA/AL and the Florida Panhandle, low level flow will become increasingly southerly and the vorticity maxima will be located along the southern flank of the upper level low, which is likely to be over North Florida. In addition, given the low-level southerly flow, showers and storms will have higher chances for development in northern parts of the region such as near the lake and Palm Beach/Broward counties. Temperatures will continue to hit the low to mid 90s both Wednesday and Thursday across South Florida.
Hot and humid conditions expected over the weekend with highs reaching the low 90s each day.
In conjunction with the persistent upper low that has remained in place over the SE US, our active and wet pattern will continue through today.
Circulation of upper level low not as well defined in most recent satellite imagery as has been case over last couple of morning, but it is still there meandering across our region. Multiple days of rain and cooler temperatures have brought relief after an otherwise dry last few weeks. The upper level low that has been responsible for the last few days of rain will continue to affect our region for the next couple of days.
We begin this forecast period with an upper level trof that stretches from the Canadian Northern Saskatchewan Province, southwestward through western Montana, northern California and into the Pacific Ocean. Upstream, upper level ridging is present. Today, our region experiences subsidence from the leading edge of the upper level ridge. High pressure dominates at the surface. Tomorrow will be a warmer day, with just a slight chance of some localized thunderstorm activity.
(This evening through Thursday) Ridging continues to persist over the Central U. At this point, I don't anticipate dense fog unless we get quite substantive rainfalls and cooler advect. For tomorrow, we are advertising somewhat cooler temperatures than today (closer to the century mark in areas where we are seeing 105-109 this afternoon) thanks to a 20 or so meters in height falls though the past two days have seen some surprises with highs. Still, trended Max T values toward the high side of guidance based on these trends. With the cooler temperatures, and no substantive cooling aloft, one would expect less precipitation opportunity than today though forecast soundings do hint at an environment close to CI.
337 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Today an upper level low to our southeast is wobbling back to the west slightly as it lifts north. Energy around this low is generating precip to our east and south but we seem to be lagging behind (in accordance with the NAM, HRRR, and RAP) with very little development so far. Given the extensive cu field on satellite, "popcorn convection" is still possible through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours, then should die off overnight except for maybe in the Pennyrile region (closest to the low). Highs today look to top out in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows will be in the 60s.
205 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 A slow moving upper low will meander to our west for the next couple of days before finally lifting north and east by the weekend. As the upper low lingers to our west into tonight, may have a relatively dry period between morning and midday as NVA prevails. High temps today will range from upper 70s along and west of I-95, with NE winds associated with inland ridge dominate along with lingering low clouds, to low 80s near the coast.
Rain chances increase again tomorrow as the low surges back northward. PoPs will remain lower across the are for the rest of today and especially tonight, with chances increasing again tomorrow as the low begins to surge back to the north. Patchy fog expected again overnight in areas that get moderate rain today, but expect the overcast skies to keep away a lot of the fog outside of the low lying areas in the valley. Rain sticks around through much of tomorrow with chances slowly decreasing from south to north throughout the day as the low begins to move northward and eventually taking most of the precipitation with it.
A weak ridge will develop tonight and last into Thursday.
Rex block pattern remains in place over the upper levels today, with high pressure in eastern Ontario and our persistent upper low across the Tennessee Valley. Otherwise, the low will remain fairly stubborn to move late this week, but should start to get a northward nudge as the high slides into New England.
One such wave was evident over western KY which will shift south through western TN into western AL/MS this evening as the main upper low center shifts back northeast into eastern-middle TN. But overnight, PoPs will go back up again as the upper low basically stalls and an inverted low level trough to our east shifts west into middle TN and northeast AL. Will have to monitor mesoscale heavy rain trends tonight in case a slow moving heavy rain area develops beneath the upper low.
The closed low pressure system located along the Alabama/Georgia state-line will begin lifting north and out of the Deep South through the course of the day Thursday.
146 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Upper trough was situated from central Idaho into Saskatchewan this hour. An axis of instability and moisture persisted on the front side of this trough and was developing showers all morning from around Sheridan northeast toward Miles City. Meanwhile, the upper trough over Idaho is progged to lift northeast this afternoon and evening, and this will generate another round of showers and thunderstorms over western and central zones late this afternoon through the evening. Will see a break from activity on Thursday as a flat and small scale ridge provides weakly anticyclonic flow.
Temperatures in the Mid-South are expected to remain in the 80s through Thursday as a large upper level low persists over the region.
The heat will ramp up even more as we move into the weekend as the ridge of high pressure builds aloft.
Breezy winds as a result of the troughing expected to decrease after this evening and through the remainder of the week, becoming light for most areas. Cloud cover increases as another upper level low moves in late Thursday evening, bringing chances of coastal drizzle. Extensive 500 mb troughing remains along the West Coast. The polar jet stream will dig the upper level trough southward along the West Coast tonight and Thursday. The 500 mb trough will form in to a closed 500 mb low and move eastward across the Bay Area Thursday.
A high pressure axis from southwestern TX northeastward to Duluth into southern Ontario, Canada. As the this axis shifts off to the southeast, simultaneously a cold front begins to approach the area from the northwest. Combined with winds aloft at 300mb that are very light and the weak upper level jet stream parallel to the cold front, the front is expected to move slowly into the region.
317 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Southeast Michigan firmly entrenched late this afternoon within an established rex block configuration, fixated at the interface of the elevated upper height field emanating from a southern canadian upper high and the lower heights bleeding north of the closed low meandering over the TN valley.
305 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Rinse and repeat as a weak closed low continues to meander over the Tennessee Valley.
A secondary cold front is currently draped across western ND. Otherwise look for lows to drop into the lower 50s in the west and remain in the 60s across the east.
307 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Present surface analysis has multiple areas of low pressure situated along the eastern seaboard and down along the Gulf Coast.
130 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Low pressure will reside across the Tennessee Valley through mid week. The low will then return north late in the week before pushing off to the east over the weekend. Lows will mainly be in the lower 60s. Temperatures to be muted by clouds and pcpn development with highs from the lower/middle 70s southeast to the upper 70s northwest.
Below normal temperatures are expected across the forecast area for the next few days due to low pressure aloft bringing in a cool airmass into the region. Large dry upper level trough centered just off the Norcal coast providing our area with mainly clear skies and a cool airmass.
119 PM PDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the Sierra and western Nevada on Thursday as a trough migrates across the West.
Today: The upper-level cut-off low that we've been talking about for several days now is currently centered over GA. Overnight lows will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s and afternoon highs will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s.
1142 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper ridge that brought the heat to the region remains centered over Mexico this morning extending across TX and NM up through the Central Plains to the Great Lakes. A trough extends down the West Coast with a closed low developing over the CA Coast tonight and Thursday but the ridge will remain over the area Thursday.
144 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Upper level analysis shows an upper level low slowly lifting into northern Saskatchewan with trailing a trough axis extending southwestward through western Montana into Nevada. At the surface, a slow moving cold front/quasi-stationary front is drawn from northeastern North Dakota through central South Dakota into western Nebraska. Cloud cover persists this afternoon along with cooler temperatures west of the front (highs around 60 into the mid 70s across south-central SD).
(Through Thursday) The upper low spinning over North Georgia will gradually lift north into Tennessee and Kentucky on Thursday.
Shower chances will prevail through the day with increasing chances of thunderstorms as day progresses as upper level low continues it's meandering across mid state region. That upper level low finally begins what will be a slow northeasterly track out of our forecast area initially on Thursday night.
The trough remains over us, but the airmass has dried.
Outside of that, the region will se a dry overnight with lows in the upper 60s to the low 70s. The closed low pressure system located along the Alabama/Georgia state-line will begin lifting north and out of the Deep South through the course of the day Thursday.
214 PM PDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Cooler than normal temperatures this week. a chunk of energy pushes out of the anomalous upper trough off the west coast of central California and pushes across/over the area. so the end result will be a continuation of onshore flow with delta breezes and cooler than normal temperatures. There will be some slight instability in the higher terrain of mainly Shasta county in the afternoon and evening so we have added slight chances to these areas for that time period.
Mid level cloudiness will also begin to increase Thursday into Thursday night as low pressure to the south begins to wobble in the general direction of the Great Lakes. Winds will remain east to northeast between this low to the south and high pressure centered to the northeast and north. Southeast Michigan firmly entrenched late this afternoon within an established rex block configuration, fixated at the interface of the elevated upper height field emanating from a southern canadian upper high and the lower heights bleeding north of the closed low meandering over the TN valley.
30/Sirmon Temperatures in the Mid-South are expected to remain in the 80s through Thursday as a large upper level low persists over the region.
An upper trough will remain positioned to our west through Thursday and provide our area with a dry south-southwest flow aloft. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer on Thursday.
529 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2023 A trough continues to sit across the western US, now with its axis over Idaho. Precipitation will be a little more widespread on Thursday as the trough digs farther south along the West Coast.
606 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Today an upper level low to our southeast is wobbling back to the west slightly as it lifts north. Energy around this low is generating precip to our east and south but we seem to be lagging behind (in accordance with the NAM, HRRR, and RAP) with very little development so far. Given the extensive cu field on satellite, "popcorn convection" is still possible through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours, then should die off overnight except for maybe in the Pennyrile region (closest to the low). Highs today look to top out in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows will be in the 60s.
920 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Weak low pressure continues to spin to our south, and isolated showers are drifting east to west this evening. Rinse and repeat as a weak closed low continues to meander over the Tennessee Valley.
402 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2023 A trough continues to sit across the western US, now with its axis over Idaho. Precipitation will be a little more widespread on Thursday as the trough digs farther south along the West Coast.
Rinse and repeat as a weak closed low continues to meander over the Tennessee Valley.
500 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Upper level analysis shows an upper level low slowly lifting into northern Saskatchewan with trailing a trough axis extending southwestward through western Montana into Nevada. At the surface, a slow moving cold front/quasi-stationary front is drawn from northeastern North Dakota through central South Dakota into western Nebraska. Cloud cover persists this afternoon along with cooler temperatures west of the front (highs around 60 into the mid 70s across south-central SD).
735 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Widespread showers continue to rotate around an upper low centered over Middle Tennessee. Shower chances will prevail through the day with increasing chances of thunderstorms as day progresses as upper level low continues it's meandering across mid state region. That upper level low finally begins what will be a slow northeasterly track out of our forecast area initially on Thursday night.
Going forecast is largely on track this evening with quiet weather expected overnight as temps drop into the lower to mid 60s. Deubelbeiss Rex block pattern remains in place over the upper levels today, with high pressure in eastern Ontario and our persistent upper low across the Tennessee Valley. Otherwise, the low will remain fairly stubborn to move late this week, but should start to get a northward nudge as the high slides into New England.
946 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Combination of an impulse moving around the upper level ridge, an old frontal boundary that is quasi stationary from Toledo Bend to Lafayette, the sea breeze, and a moist and unstable airmass initiated clusters of storms over southeast Texas and mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor in the Louisiana portion of the forecast area.
Thursday will see a weak trough/frontal system push through the region and will bring the chances for thunderstorms back into the forecast.
Continued dry southwesterly flow aloft remains in place over the Southwest today in response to persistent troughing across the western CONUS. Additionally, this troughing pattern has allowed for temperatures to remain near to below normal and will continue to do so through the end of this week. Lower desert highs over the next several days will generally remain in the low 100s while areas across the western CWA will see cooler highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees given the closer proximity to the trough.
Expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to decrease over the west and central zones over the next few hours, continuing into the overnight across the far east as a trough lifts through eastern MT. STP Upper trough was situated from central Idaho into Saskatchewan this hour. An axis of instability and moisture persisted on the front side of this trough and was developing showers all morning from around Sheridan northeast toward Miles City. Meanwhile, the upper trough over Idaho is progged to lift northeast this afternoon and evening, and this will generate another round of showers and thunderstorms over western and central zones late this afternoon through the evening. Will see a break from activity on Thursday as a flat and small scale ridge provides weakly anticyclonic flow.
A low pressure center is moving south towards central California, leaving our portion of northern California and southern Oregon under a deepening trough. For tonight, temperatures across the east side will be warm enough that widespread freezing is not an issue. Temperatures will continue to warm up tomorrow as the upper trough remains in place, with a 50% chance of a 90 degree high in Medford and similar temperatures in other west side valleys. Temperatures will be cooler along the Oregon coast and across the east side, both areas looking to be in the low to mid 70s.
(Tonight) Medium to high (40-80%) rain chances will continue this evening and potentially through the remainder of the overnight hours (especially east of I-65) as a mid/upper low meander back to the north from northern Georgia into southeastern Tennessee. Sufficient low-level moisture along with the lift provided by the low will maintain light to moderate showers (with a few rumbles of thunder) across the Tennessee Valley.
923 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Showers have nearly all dissipated across the Midsouth as they move away from an upper level low centered over middle Tennessee and north Alabama.
640 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Ridging continues to persist over the Central U. At this point, I don't anticipate dense fog unless we get quite substantive rainfalls and cooler advect. For tomorrow, we are advertising somewhat cooler temperatures than today (closer to the century mark in areas where we are seeing 105-109 this afternoon) thanks to a 20 or so meters in height falls though the past two days have seen some surprises with highs. Still, trended Max T values toward the high side of guidance based on these trends. With the cooler temperatures, and no substantive cooling aloft, one would expect less precipitation opportunity than today though forecast soundings do hint at an environment close to CI.
An upper level trough will slowly push eastward for the rest of the week.
724 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Persistent low pressure will maintain clouds and precipitation chances through the weekend. Temperatures will remain near to above average apart from cooler temperatures on Thursday. Evening precipitation will likely be limited to the ridges of WV/PA before stratiform rain spreads farther north overnight. Showers on the northern periphery of our forecast area will struggle overnight as they push northwards into ridging with more pronounced dry air.
The upper level trough still influencing our area will propagate eastward this evening, bringing in drier and warmer temperatures through Western Washington.
Currently - Low pressure stagnating over the southeastern United States has kept the surface through lower level ridge pressed southwards across the Keys region. As a result, the surface through low level ridge axis will remain near the island chain. This will keep winds light out of the southeast to south and the lower level dryness and inhibition should persist. Expect overnight lows to fall in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid to upper 70s.
623 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 The forecast in the short term is awfully quiet and uneventful; what else is new? A rex blocking pattern overhead continues to keep the weather at ease over most of the Midwest. There is building confidence in a period of scattered to broken cloud cover developing tonight, particularly east of I-55, with a plume of mid level moisture forecast to be advected over the area on the northern periphery of the low.
747 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 (Through Thursday) The upper low spinning over North Georgia will gradually lift north into Tennessee and Kentucky on Thursday.
However, the sea breeze appears to be confined closer to the coast and especially to the south of Titusville which will keep the highest rain chances along and to the south of there towards Lake Okeechobee (PoPs ~ 70-84%). Afternoon high temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s.
Early evening IR and water vapor satellite imagery is showing the persistent trough remaining north of Florida, keeping deep moisture in place across the Florida Peninsula. The forecast looks on track overall, with the persistent trough and deep moisture continuing to favor greater than normal thunderstorm activity through at least the weekend.
627 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Low pressure continues to move to the southeast slowly through the short term. This low will cause scattered to widespread activity to develop through the afternoon and evening. Instabilities are fairly low across the area with the highest instabilities of around 3000 J/kg south of I20 this afternoon and early evening. The best chances for coverage will be in the eastern half of the state, closer to the low pressure system.
However normal high temperatures are around 80 degrees and based on the forecast 850 mb temperatures, if we mix to that level, we should still reach the low to mid 80s.
1151 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 (Tonight) Medium to high (40-80%) rain chances will continue this evening and potentially through the remainder of the overnight hours (especially east of I-65) as a mid/upper low meander back to the north from northern Georgia into southeastern Tennessee. Sufficient low-level moisture along with the lift provided by the low will maintain light to moderate showers (with a few rumbles of thunder) across the Tennessee Valley.
(Today) Temperatures have fallen into the mid 60s to low 70s this morning as light showers move through the TN Valley in response to a mid/upper low pressure system tracking over the area.
155 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023 (Through Thursday) The upper low spinning over North Georgia will gradually lift north into Tennessee and Kentucky on Thursday.
1159 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Combination of an impulse moving around the upper level ridge, an old frontal boundary that is quasi stationary from Toledo Bend to Lafayette, the sea breeze, and a moist and unstable airmass initiated clusters of storms over southeast Texas and mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor in the Louisiana portion of the forecast area.
342 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Latest water vapor imagery showed the upper low over the Tennessee Valley with a ridge over the Plains. At the surface, a ridge extended from the northeast through the Great lakes resulting in easterly flow over Missouri and Illinois. Latest run of the HREF is showing the upper low moving slowly north through tomorrow which will allow the upper ridge to slowly shift east. Will also go dry tomorrow as the upper ridge moves closer to the region.
104 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 A small pop, audible for some (east) and not for others (west) through the end of the work week, will linger with the near presence of an upper level low, now swirling across the Tennessee Valley. It ultimately lifts northward into the Mid Ohio Valley by this weekend, when we start to see some H5 height rises from ridging between it and the next system in the High Plains.
1041 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Upper level analysis shows an upper level low slowly lifting into northern Saskatchewan with trailing a trough axis extending southwestward through western Montana into Nevada. At the surface, a slow moving cold front/quasi-stationary front is drawn from northeastern North Dakota through central South Dakota into western Nebraska. Cloud cover persists this afternoon along with cooler temperatures west of the front (highs around 60 into the mid 70s across south-central SD).