Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the surface, high pressure currently over the region will get pushed to the southeast today as a trough digs down the lee of the Rockies. The CWA will then be in between these two systems tonight before the low pressure system and its associated frontal boundary track across the CWA on Wednesday. Will see much warmer air get pulled into the region on Wednesday on southerly flow ahead of the boundary. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 60s. After this moves off to our east, a strong ridge moves into the region and remains in place through the end of the period. Temperatures with this ridge are expected to reach into the high 80s to low 90s in northern SD and west central MN to close to triple digits in central SD.
(Today and tonight) Temperatures will be a little "cooler" and close to normal today, and some radiational cooling is expected tonight. With light east to southeast winds, clear skies and drier air in place, this should allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 60s in our northern and central counties, to the lower 70s along the I-10 corridor. At Abilene, the high of 97 yesterday ended their consecutive run of days with 100+ degree temperatures.
(Rest of Today) High pressure will continue to push into the area from the Central Plains today, promoting much needed relief from the humid and active pattern. As a cold front continues to slowly push south, showers and thunderstorms currently stretching from Cullman into DeKalb will clear the area to the south and east, and a dry forecast will follow for the foreseeable future. Temperatures will almost feel like an early taste of fall today, only reaching the low to mid 80s this afternoon.
Cooler temperatures are expected for late week into the weekend. (Today and tonight) Currently the high pressure system over the Pacific Northwest is dominating the low pressure over the ocean, which is supporting the warming trend for today. Temperatures tonight will also follow a warmer trend compared to last night with temperatures reaching a few degrees higher in some areas. Although temperatures are trending on the warmer side, HeatRisk still remains moderate as onshore flow and sufficient minimum overnight temperatures will help keep conditions cool.
Despite the passing cdfrnt, drier air and more prominent mixing may allow for slightly warmer temps at most locations, w/ readings in the upper 70s across far Nrn AR, and mid 80s over Cntrl and Srn AR.
A ridge of high pressure will build in across the western Great Lakes today then shift off to the central Great Lakes by Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will be a bit warmer; generally in the lower to middle 80s.
08Z sfc analysis shows a cold front settling south through eastern Kentucky in the wake of the earlier strong to severe storms that mostly missed the area and plagued eastern Tennessee. Temperatures vary from the upper 60s in the north to the lower 70s south. Winds are turning more west as high pressure is now building in from the northwest while dewpoints are still elevated in the mid 60s to lower 70s. They all depict a compact closed low trough moving through the northern Ohio Valley today and tonight.
1030 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A cold front will push south of the area late tonight. High pressure and dry conditions return for Wednesday.
This will result in warmer temperatures today (with some period of mid level clouds or CU. On Wednesday a slightly stronger mid level wave arrives and while the general evolution/timing is consistent, there are still differences in forcing related to the main regions of PVA and cold front, along with questions about instability/moisture advection. Due to the high mixed layers and limited BL moisture advection ahead of the front the window for increasing instability is narrowed, and if the front is already southeast of our CWA by peak heating organized/deep convection becomes less likely and only high based showers/weaker thunderstorms would be favored (still an enhanced sub severe wind threat).
430 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Today through tonight: A cold front is pushing southward across the forecast area early this morning, and it will be followed by a less humid airmass with temperatures that are more typical for summer as we go through the afternoon and tonight. Rain chances are not expected to pick up again until the time of max heating in the lower Pine Belt region.
611 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Observations this morning show that the cold front is currently approaching the Cumberland Plateau, and it will continue to push eastward through the early morning hours. A beautiful day is on tap with high temperatures in the upper-70's and low-80's several degrees cooler than yesterday in the wake of the cold front. A strong upper-level high pressure system will build over TX/OK by the end of the week, resulting in dry northwest flow over our area. With this high meandering over the southern U.
The second round will move into SE GA this evening, as a cold front moves into SE GA.
Low level flow will become southwest today and increase significantly Wednesday as a trough approaches from the northwest. Winds toward the top of the mixed layer increase to 40-45 kts by late afternoon just ahead of the cold front. Temperatures have the potential to be warmer than forecast depending on how deep mixing becomes with +20 to +24C at 850 mb. Wouldn't be surprised to see a corridor with highs in the 90s, but the narrow thermal ridge and timing differences with the front make it difficult to pinpoint this far out.
644 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 - Cooler temperatures again today, highs in the mid to upper 70s. Light northwest flow persists at the surface with temperatures settling into the low to mid 60s, on track for the upper 50s for lows later this morning. WV imagery shows our H500 trough continues to churn steadily to the east, centered just east of Lake Michigan, with westerlies prevailing aloft across the northern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. In general, this cloud cover should linger through midday, buoyed by shallow boundary layer moisture, surface dews are still in the 60s along and west of I-35 in northern Missouri, and modest ascent on the trailing edge of the exiting upper low.
645 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Today through tonight: A cold front is pushing southward across the forecast area early this morning, and it will be followed by a less humid airmass with temperatures that are more typical for summer as we go through the afternoon and tonight. Rain chances are not expected to pick up again until the time of max heating in the lower Pine Belt region.
Low-level ridge axis has settled to around a Stuart - Okeechobee - Punta Gorda line, with increasing SW flow as one travels north from there. Otherwise, scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon and early evening, with the highest coverage Daytona/Orlando areas.
1038 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Shower activity will persist through tonight as an upper trough departs.
A strongly amplified trough remains over the Lower Ohio Valley. A closed low embedded in the trough that was responsible for yesterday's cold front will continue working east across the southern Great Lakes region, but before it can get far enough away, northwest flow will push trapped moisture between the 700 and 850mb levels towards the CWA. Even with some CAA in place, believe the sunshine will help temperatures climb into the upper 70s with a few places hitting the low 80s, mainly in southern Kentucky.
Skies will clear from north to south overnight and we will see a substantially cooler night, especially in the north. Look for temperatures to be in the low 60s in the north to low 70s in the south. With a cooler start to the day on Wednesday and a cooler/drier airmass over the area look for sunshine with temperatures in the 80s north to low 90s south.
546 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Isolated to scattered showers are today as low pressure crosses the region.
726 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Isolated to scattered showers are today as low pressure crosses the region.
The upper-level closed low off the coast of California will continue to dominate the pattern through this weekend. * TODAY-WEDNESDAY: The upper low will retrograde off the coast of California today into Wednesday, shifting the main synoptic forcing westward.
Today, ridging, west-southwest winds, sunshine and high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 80s will make for a warm and sticky day for most of the area. A weak trough that sags to drape along the US/Canada border should serve as a focus for showers and storms for the late afternoon and tonight. For several days now we have been talking about a cold front which will push into the very warm and humid airmass that develops over the area on Wednesday. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s & low 60s will make it feel uncomfortably humid as well.
(Now through Wednesday) An upper level trough will continue to dig across the eastern states today into Wednesday. This will send a cold front into the area this afternoon and evening. High temps will also be slightly cooler on Wednesday with low to mid 90s and heat index values will remain below advisory criteria.
Cold front is making progress across the state with scattered showers following behind the front. Temperatures north of the Pine Belt will be generally "cooler" than previous days with highs this afternoon in the upper 80s to lower 90s. /SW/ Today through tonight: A cold front is pushing southward across the forecast area early this morning, and it will be followed by a less humid airmass with temperatures that are more typical for summer as we go through the afternoon and tonight. Rain chances are not expected to pick up again until the time of max heating in the lower Pine Belt region.
604 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 (Today and tonight) Temperatures will be a little "cooler" and close to normal today, and some radiational cooling is expected tonight. With light east to southeast winds overnight, clear skies and drier air in place, this should allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 60s in our northern and central counties, to the lower 70s along the I-10 corridor. At Abilene, the high of 97 yesterday ended their consecutive run of days with 100+ degree temperatures.
Afternoon high temperatures today will range from the low to mid 80s across southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas to near 100 degrees across Deep East Texas and north Louisiana. Much cooler overnight low temperatures expected, ranging from the lower 60s north of I-30 to near 70 degrees across east Texas and north Louisiana.
Expect warmer temperatures today thanks to WAA. This will result in warmer temperatures today (with some period of mid level clouds or CU. On Wednesday a slightly stronger mid level wave arrives and while the general evolution/timing is consistent, there are still differences in forcing related to the main regions of PVA and cold front, along with questions about instability/moisture advection. Due to the high mixed layers and limited BL moisture advection ahead of the front the window for increasing instability is narrowed, and if the front is already southeast of our CWA by peak heating organized/deep convection becomes less likely and only high based showers/weaker thunderstorms would be favored (still an enhanced sub severe wind threat).
High pressure will prevail over the central plains today. Otherwise, winds today will be light and variable underneath the high pressure center. For Wednesday, the high pressure center will shift off to the east. Pops will continue to remain at zero percent through the entire short term period as high pressure prevails.
1035 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Upper level trough moves through today.
548 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Upper level trough moves through today.
Tropical moisture is currently moving through the area, by a weak trough located near the Bahamas. The weather forecast predicts that the daytime high temperatures will range from the lower to mid 90s. High pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and a ridge extending westward to the Florida peninsula will persist through the remainder of the work week, and promote gentle mainly east to southeast breezes prevailing across the Florida Keys coastal waters. A weak low pressure trough will continue to move westward through the Keys waters today through Wednesday, bringing increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms at times. High pressure will strengthen over the eastern United States this weekend, bringing freshening easterly breezes into the Keys waters.
620 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 (Today through Wednesday night) Today will be warmer than yesterday as the upper-level trough over the Midwest moves east and the upper-level ridge over the Southwest builds east into the Panhandles. Expect highs in the 85-90 degree range through the Panhandles with some locations getting into the low-90s. the upper-level ridge becomes more established over the area and much warmer 850mb temperature (33-34C in the west, 28-30C in the east) get advected in from the Mexican Plateau.
657 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region today with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
509 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Scattered showers are expected today with highs in the low 70s.
A relatively cool start to the day this morning as high pressure settles south, with sunrise temperatures ranging from 55-60 degrees. Otherwise, another unseasonably cool day is expected, with forecast high temperatures in the low-mid 80s.
The front that brought the cooler air is now along the Texas coastline, ushering in northerly winds across all of North and Central Texas. Aloft, North and Central Texas remains wedged between deep troughing in the eastern CONUS, with ridging in the west.
The upper level ridge is expected isn't expected to move much over the next 24 hours. Key messages: 1) Heat is here to stay for several days 2) Monsoon plume stays shifted mostly to our west 3) Storm chances mostly confined to the mountains A dominating ridge of high pressure will be the driving force in the weather for the next several days to come.
113 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Scattered showers are expected today with highs in the low 70s.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Model agreement continues to see the 500mb high pressure center strengthen and expand over the course of the day.
156 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region today with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms east of the Blue Ridge.
109 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A NW-to-SE oriented ridge. will gradually expand eastward over adjacent portions of the High Plains. characterized by pronounced ridging over the central CONUS and troughing along the Pacific and Atlantic coasts.
T'storms that develop through sunset over SE GA will have another opportunity to become strong to severe due to lift along the cold front, plentiful surface instability, and interactions with the pinned Atlantic seabreeze. Afternoon readings in the low to mid 90s will lower into the low to mid 70s inland and the mid to upper 70s along the coast with light south to southwest winds becoming near calm inland.
244 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Shower activity will persist through tonight as an upper trough departs.
1235 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 (Today and tonight) Temperatures will be a little "cooler" and close to normal today, and some radiational cooling is expected tonight. With light east to southeast winds overnight, clear skies and drier air in place, this should allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 60s in our northern and central counties, to the lower 70s along the I-10 corridor.
This low level moisture has allowed for cumulus to develop across the area this afternoon. Surface temperatures have warmed only into the middle to the lower to middle 70s with the clouds and dry northwest winds. Low temps in the lower to middle 50s are likely and we have dropped temps a little tonight from previous forecast. Late Week into the Weekend: Ensembles are in good agreement that the mid level ridge out west will continue to build into the area late this weekend and continue into the weekend. The NBM has a small spread in high temp forecasts through the weekend which leads to high confidence that temps will reach the lower to middle 90s by the weekend. Some patchy fog is possible tonight with the highest chances at BBG however not seeing dense fog at this time.
Cooler than normal weather will continue for the next couple of days with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. By the end of the week into the weekend the heat will start to rebuild as upper ridging strengthens over the region.
1146 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region today with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
/96 (Now through Wednesday) An upper level trough will continue to dig across the eastern states today into Wednesday. This will send a cold front into the area this afternoon and evening. High temps will also be slightly cooler on Wednesday with low to mid 90s and heat index values will remain below advisory criteria.
249 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Southerly breezes will persist overnight as a pressure gradient begins to tighten with the approach of a cold front. Cold front will move from west to east across the CWA late morning Wed through the afternoon.
Water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis show a potent mid/upper low continuing the lumber across the Great Lake region. Incredibly enough, the cold front that brought much cooler conditions across Kansas to start off the work week arrived at the western Gulf Coast this morning. However, late this afternoon into the evening hours, southerly low-level flow should begin to return across the southern and central plains as the front washes out and surface pressure falls occur across the High Plains. This will lead to warmer temperatures and slightly better moisture to return to the region for Wednesday, particularly west of the Flint Hills.
By Wednesday night southerly return flow will be established and a 500mb ridge will rebuild over the southern Plains through the end of the week.
211 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 An upper level ridge will keep conditions hot and fairly dry through the short term. Wednesday morning, a cold front will pass through, causing winds to shift to the north and bringing wind gusts around 20-25 mph, particularly in the eastern portion of the forecast area, through the day. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the mid 50s to low 60s overnight.
1226 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 - Cooler temperatures again today, highs in the mid to upper 70s. Light northwest flow persists at the surface with temperatures settling into the low to mid 60s, on track for the upper 50s for lows later this morning. WV imagery shows our H500 trough continues to churn steadily to the east, centered just east of Lake Michigan, with westerlies prevailing aloft across the northern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. In general, this cloud cover should linger through midday, buoyed by shallow boundary layer moisture, surface dews are still in the 60s along and west of I-35 in northern Missouri, and modest ascent on the trailing edge of the exiting upper low.
Above mentioned ridge shifts south and east during the day Wed with mostly NE winds noted across our entire region. Should see more of a southeasterly component to our wind overnight Wed Night and thus, temperatures will moderate slightly with lows ranging in the lower 60s north to near 70 south and southwest.
211 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 High pressure will bring quiet and mild weather to central IL through Wednesday.
As ridging builds into the region later this week and through the weekend, we will see the return of hot and humid conditions.
The good news is that tonight will feel like an early taste of fall as overnight lows drop into the lower 60s.
316 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) The cold front continues to slowly drift through the CWA, firing a couple lines of thunderstorms along the I20 corridor and Northward. PoPs will continue overnight along the boundary, however drier and cooler conditions to the north will prevail (yeah!). Overall though the rest of the area should be cooler and dry.
Low pressure over far northwest Ohio will continue to track slowly east late today into tonight. Rain showers within a deformation zone north and northwest of this low will gradually diminish into the evening hours as forcing associated with this system shifts to the east. Skies will then clear quickly into the overnight within subsidence region as high pressure builds into the region.
Water vapor imagery shows a well defined closed low moving over Lake Erie with dry air around the base of the aformentioned trough over the lower Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, maxTs on Wednesday will rise into the lower 80s as light NE winds will still help to keep temps a bit below normal with minTs near 60.
Under the influence of the ridge, breezy north winds will diminish and back to the west while the cloud cover gradually scatters out. With the clearing skies, dewpoints and low temperatures in the 50s, light winds, and recent rainfall, areas of fog may develop overnight, especially toward the predawn hours in southern portions of the forecast area when the ridge is expected to be overhead.
potentially prolonged! Forecast thoughts: Fairly quiet weather across much of the lower CONUS today. Over the western CONUS, a broad ridge continues to build with the Westerlies mainly into Canada.
Latest GEFS and European model ensembles have a ridge over the Pacific Northwest with an inverted trough off the coast of California. Both model ensembles show the inverted trough dissipating as the ridge strengthens.
232 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 AFTERNOON UPDATE: Clouds remained limited across northeast Montana once again today as weakening upper ridging lingered over the region. Models were consistent with a cold front dropping over the region early Wednesday morning, quickly shifting southwest winds to northwest and becoming gusty.
The swath of rainfall has resulted in locally cooler temperatures, and the West Texas Mesonet near O'Donnell measured 0. Winds will remain light throughout the rest of the day and into the overnight hours as the surface anticyclone shifts to the east. The weak, southerly fetch and increasing geopotential heights will contribute to slightly warmer temperatures overnight tonight with lows in the middle-upper 60s area-wide. The mid/upper-level ridge, currently centered over the Four Corners region, will expand with longitude over the next 24 hours as an Omega Block begins to evolve across the Lower 48. Hot temperatures return tomorrow with highs near or breaching 100 deg F area-wide as surface flow veers to the southwest beneath increasing mid-level subsidence as the eastern tranche of the mid/upper-level ridge moves overhead.
A broken cu field has kept temperatures just a couple of degrees cooler than previously forecasted. Both tonight and Wednesday night will feel refreshing, as lows fall into the low 60s and even the upper 50s in some higher elevations.
342 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Key Messages: * Breezy and much warmer Wednesday afternoon with a dry cold front expected to cross the area late Wednesday night.
101 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Shower activity will persist through tonight as an upper trough departs.
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Tonight and Tomorrow: Rain chances decrease through the evening into tonight as the cold front moves out of the area. Generally light northerly winds will allow cooler and drier air to filter in overnight. On Wednesday, high pressure builds into the area with post frontal dry air in place.
As dewpoints drop across the north, most of the higher moisture content will be found across the southeast this afternoon with storms still expected to develop along the front. Finally, we will feel some cooler air by tomorrow morning as skies clear and morning lows register in the lower 60s northwest to near 70 southeast. Highs will range from the lower 80s northwest to lower 90s southeast tomorrow, but it won't feel nearly as oppressive as it has lately with afternoon dewpoints remaining in the 60s.