Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
515 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 (Today) Based on southeastern CONUS radar trends, better forcing with the upper low continues to be to our northwest this morning (over the Illinois area south into western TN). However, models continue to depict this upper low and trough axis to weaken and shift northward towards the Great Lakes region early this morning. This should keep highs a bit cooler than they could be, mainly in the 80 to 85 degree range.
Generally dry weather will prevail through the period with Min RH values mainly 10-15 percent from Tucson west, 15-20 percent in eastern valleys and 20-30 percent over the higher elevations.
651 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level low pressure system sits to our northwest over Oregon with a ridge to the south over Mexico. Isentropic lift ahead of the trough will bring in low-level moisture from the Gulf.
657 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Fair dry weather will continue through the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds over the region. As the high pushes east, winds will shift to be southeast and support warm air to advect into the area with highs climbing up into the low to mid 70s. High pressure centered near Nova Scotia Friday night will reach back across the Lower Great Lakes to guarantee nothing more than some cirrus clouds to start the weekend.
This prompted the need for two Flood Advisories across the Lower Keys this morning. Given the recent radar trends combined with the fact that we still have a persistent upper level trough situated across the Florida Peninsula, have opted to leave high end chance PoPs for the remainder of today. An area of low pressure is expected to develop east of Florida this afternoon and tonight, allowing for light to gentle breezes to shift to the north to northeast through Friday evening.
1038 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Fair dry weather will continue through the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s across the region this afternoon. As the high pushes east, winds will shift to be southeast and support warm air to advect into the area with highs climbing up into the low to mid 70s. High pressure centered near Nova Scotia Friday night will reach back across the Lower Great Lakes to guarantee nothing more than some cirrus clouds to start the weekend.
Mild temperatures in the lower 80s Friday will cool to near 70 by the middle of this upcoming week. Another mild night is on tap with lows mostly in the upper 50s (warmest near Lake Michigan in the low 60s). Highs will once again be in the low 80s across the CWA.
This is the subject of Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Sixteen that the National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on. Starting on Friday, as PTC Sixteen moves northward, high pressure builds in over the southeast U. This will allow for some cooler and drier air on the west side of the storm to filter into the region from the north.
On Friday morning, a very defined deformation band of precipitation is expected to move over west-central Montana as the main upper level low shifts east into Wyoming. The highest probabilities of 80 percent or greater for more than 2 inches of snow include the Flint Creek Range, Anaconda Range and portions of the Bob Marshall Wilderness along the Divide.
Does appear more of the forecast area will get in on the precip tomorrow, including the central mountains, as models show some wrap-around precip developing as the low begins to shift east across the region during the day tomorrow. PoPs begin to taper off from west to east during the latter part of the day tomorrow and by Sat AM, the low should be far enough east to clear the area of any precipiation.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the central and eastern parts of the forecast area this evening as a low pressure system moves east of the area. A closed upper level low pressure system is spinning over southeastern Oregon at this time. The upper low will be pushing east for Friday and Friday night.
330 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 (This evening through Friday) Key Messages: - NHC has initiated advisories for potential tropical cyclone 16 off the coast. - Another set of days with highs in the low 70s to upper 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Forecast: The headline would be the formation of potential tropical cyclone 16 off the Georgia coastline this morning/afternoon. For the purposes of north and central Georgia, little impacts expected from the potential cyclone besides maybe a few showers this afternoon in far east central Georgia and some cloud cover.
An incoming system from the west continues to be the highlight of the weekend forecast.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid/upper level ridge continues to slowly mature across the western Great Lakes early this afternoon. with ridging extending back west across northern Michigan. Really not a whole lot of change expected tonight as deep layer ridging remains centered across the Northwoods. Within this pattern, closed upper level low is expected to drift from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains this weekend while troughing down the eastern seaboard prevails. Northern MI lies in the middle ground between these two features with a fairly nebulous surface pattern overhead as some semblance of high pressure dominates -- although not without its complications.
With the clouds have come scattered showers and cooler temperatures, especially across the northern forecast area which has had an outflow from morning thunderstorms in northeast Nebraska move through.
239 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the weekend. A weakening mid level low pressure system will continue to lift north across the western Great Lakes through tonight. Tropical low pressure system will ride up along the southeast coast and into the mid Atlantic States Friday into Friday night as high pressure remains in place across our area. The tropical low pressure system will weaken as it lifts north along the east coast through the weekend.
We are expected to remain rain-free through this evening with today's highs in the mid to upper 80s and today's lows in the low to upper 60s across the region.
1258 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Key Messages: - Temperatures remain on the warm side today in the low 80s, which is around 10 degrees above normal highs for this time of year.
A weak high pressure will develop over the lower MS River Valley tonight. At the same time, a low pressure will continue to strengthen off the coast of the Carolinas. Temperatures will remain near normal or a degree or two above normal today and Friday, with low temperatures near normal in the low to mid 60s.
Discussion: Mid/upper lvl water vapor imagery shows an upper level low across Illinois this afternoon with a general lowering of heights across the Southern Appalachians through the Florida Peninsula. Ridging was noted from the southern plains north through the central plains and across the Great Lakes. The surface reflection contains high pressure from Ontario and across portion of New England and the Appalachians. The influence of high pressure will keep conditions dry overnight and through Friday.
214 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Fair dry weather will continue through the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s, upper 60s across the higher terrain this afternoon. Lows will fall mid to upper 40s to the low 40s across the higher terrain. It will be warm Friday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, low 70s across the higher terrain. A light wind and high clouds will keep it warmer overnight with lows in the upper 40s.
1245 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 (Today through Friday) South Central Texas will remain under the influence of the northern periphery of the upper level ridge axis through the short term forecast leading to continued warm conditions.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Current WV satellite shows the upper trough that brought showers to the Permian Basin this morning is now in the eastern TX Panhandle and moving into Oklahoma. The lingering cloud cover is holding temps down a few degrees more than models were showing for this afternoon which is important because afternoon heating is the only thing left to destabilize the atmosphere with the upper trough leaving. Hi-res models are showing widely scattered convection developing, mainly west of the Pecos River where the higher elevations will aid in lift though some activity could make it farther east.
145 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Deep upper level low currently over Oregon will track east into Wyoming Friday. The higher terrain could see gusts to 45 mph with gusts to 35 mph across the plains.
Another impulse is expected to aid in storm development in the High Plains in NM. Currently, the highest chances for showers and storms this evening/overnight is in parts of southern OK and north TX then shifting to eastern portions of the fa overnight into Friday, generally along and east of I-35. Warmer temperatures are expected Friday with highs in the 90s possible in western/southwestern portions of the fa where rain/clouds should clear out the earliest.
109 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Water vapor shows main upper low over eastern OR with distinct short wave ejecting northeast across the Central Plains. At the surface, low continues to deepen over eastern CO with inverted trof extending northeast into central SD. On Friday, upper low will shift into eastern ID/western WY by late afternoon.
A ridge will be building back across the panhandles starting late today which will bring a return of fair weather for the overnight hours and Friday. The ridge will bring a slight increase to the temperatures with highs of 80s today increasing to 90s for Friday.
(Tonight through Friday night) The mid-level ridge continues to be the main talking point for the short term forecast. However, the key to that is that the mid-level ridge has to remain in place. Model guidance is showing that the ridge does move off towards the west a little bit late tonight and into Friday. This allows for a weak inverted trough to approach the Lower Texas Coast. This weak inverted trough will bring tropical moisture and a bit of instability that could foster the growth of isolated showers and thunderstorms. While this is the scenario that is presented in the models is it likely to happen? Given the persistent nature of the mid-level ridge to foil rain chances, I would say that my confidence is not high enough to say that a lot of places will see rain tomorrow.
A developing area of low pressure aloft off the Carolina coast will be the main synoptic scale feature of interest to close out the work week. Even with the potential reduction in rain chances, the cooler air aloft could still persist which could permit some strong convection again on Friday.
1129 AM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Current surface map places trough from northeastern South Dakota to just south of the Black Hills. Pacific Northwest upper low continues to dig towards the Great Basin. Buoyancy/shear favorable for another round of severe thunderstorms, especially along the warm front in the vicinity of South Dakota/Nebraska border.
This area will be within a weakness in 500mb heights along with slightly cooler 500mb temperatures and a weaker capping inversion for isolated shower development.
Southeast TX will remain under the influence of the mid to upper level ridge.
The lowest visibilities/dense fog will be across north-central and northeast WI. With the warmer air still in place, low temperatures will be above normal with values mainly in the 50s.
Otherwise, Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 has formed in the Atlantic just off the southeast CONUS coast, and will possibly become a tropical or subtropical storm as it moves up the US east coast over the next few days. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 60s along and north of the Highway 84 corridor to the upper 60s down near the coast, with a few lower 70s along the beaches and barrier islands.
Upper ridging will build slightly tomorrow as the upper high pushes back against the upper low that is currently over the Pacific Northwest and is progged to push eastward across Big Sky country. This will allow highs to warm into the low to mid 90s across the FA tomorrow afternoon.
Tomorrow the low will pick up speed and quickly move east out of our area.
Currently, large area of low pressure over the western CONUS, centered over eastern Oregon. Upper low continues to slowly move east through Friday afternoon, moving into western Wyoming by late afternoon. A more defined embedded mid level wave will rotate around the upper low and lift northeast across western/central SD Friday afternoon. Aforementioned upper low continues its gradual eastward migration, moving over the Rockies late Friday, before meandering through the Northern Plains this weekend.
The axis of a mid/upper level high pressure system extends from central Mexico, across Deep S TX and the western Gulf of Mexico, resulting in a zonal flow aloft across S TX. The high is progged to shift west tonight through Friday leading to a northwest flow aloft. Also, the higher moisture combined with light winds, may lead to brief patchy fog early Friday morning, mainly from Alice to Victoria.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 70s and highs Friday will be in the mid to upper 90s.
1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 (Today and tonight) A large upper level low is situated over the northwestern U. with ridging over Texas and the central plains, and general troughing over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS. As far as temperatures go, we will remain warmer than normal today, with highs ranging from around 90 into the upper 90s, and overnight lows will again be muggy, mainly in the 70s.
Southeast winds to the east of the low is bringing moist unstable. If this low is slow to move out of northeast of Colorado, the moist unstable airmass will stay in place and may result in strong/severe storms as far west as far northeast Colorado. As this feature moves across there will be wdly sct showers this morning over portions of the higher terrain. As for highs, readings will rise into the lower to mid 80's over the plains.
447 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure to the north will gradually shift offshore today as low pressure develops off the southeast coast. Lower to mid level dry air continues to erode overnight as low pressure develops off the Southeast coast. Showers chances along the coast this evening will gradually push further inland overnight as deeper moisture advection fills in behind retreating ridging. Impacts from what is currently Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen will increase quickly through the day Friday, with strong winds arriving along the coast, and deep tropical moisture bringing the potential for heavy rainfall spreading inland from the coast through the day.
944 AM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023 It will be cooler today with gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts this afternoon and evening. High pressure to the south will bring warming for the weekend, but with high temperatures remaining below average. A low pressure system, currently centered over Oregon, will move southward through tonight, then move inland into the Great Basin on Friday. This will maintain cooler temperatures, increased onshore flow, and a deeper marine layer into Friday.
Southeast behind the potential tropical cyclone off the South Carolina coast, and it appears that portions of our forecast area could still see afternoon RH values fall to around 30 percent tomorrow where mixing occurs - east of better rain chances.
1224 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level low pressure system sits to our northwest over Oregon with a ridge to the south over Mexico. Isentropic lift ahead of the trough will bring in low-level moisture from the Gulf.
(Tonight) Tranquil weather persists over the Tennessee Valley as northwesterly flow continues over the area and high pressure remains dominant at the sfc.
253 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week, keeping it mainly dry with river valley fog at night. Mostly dry conditions continue to flourish today amid departing high pressure. Low chance for showers along the higher terrain were maintained through the course of the afternoon in the event of isolated vertical development within the cumulus field currently observed on visible satellite. Otherwise, slightly warmer temperatures for the Tri-State area today, with some spots reaching the low 80s. * Cooler than normal through the weekend.
156 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Fair dry weather will continue through the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s, upper 60s across the higher terrain this afternoon. Lows will fall mid to upper 40s to the low 40s across the higher terrain. It will be warm Friday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, low 70s across the higher terrain. A light wind and high clouds will keep it warmer overnight with lows in the upper 40s.
241 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Slow moving surface and upper lows across northern Illinois will keep clouds and rain chances across the area through late afternoon and tonight.
Highs will climb into the low to mid 90s by late this afternoon, as a chance of scattered showers and storms pushes south and east before sunset, with the best chances of precip being along and north of the I-30 corridor. That said, afternoon temperature maximums in the low-to-mid 90s will fall toward milder minimums in the upper 60s/lower 70s tonight before warming back up toward milder maximums (moderated by precipitation) into the low 80s/low 90s range tomorrow. /16/ (Friday Night through Thursday) An upper-level ridge extending from northern Mexico through northeast Texas into Arkansas at the start of the period to maintain somewhat stable conditions across the region on Friday night.
244 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Some showers and drizzle remain possible across the coastal plain and extreme eastern Midlands this afternoon, otherwise high pressure to our north keeps dry air around.
144 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023 It will be cooler today with gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts this afternoon and evening. High pressure to the south will bring warming for the weekend, but with high temperatures remaining below average. A low pressure system, currently centered over Oregon, will move southward through tonight, then move inland into the Great Basin on Friday. This will maintain cooler temperatures, increased onshore flow, and a deeper marine layer into Friday.
With the clouds and showers kept the high temps in the lower to middle 70s over portions of south central WI with middle to upper 70s elsewhere.
302 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure will maintain dry weather across the region through Friday night.
While most precipitation has mostly avoided this island chain after this morning's drenching of the Lower Keys, several potent thunderstorms required the issuance of a handful of Special Marine Warnings across our western waters. Our sensible weather pattern is also not undergoing any large changes this evening as a trough sits over the Florida Peninsula promoting rising motion across the Keys and its nearshore waters. This will not last as Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (PTC16) spins up off the east coast of Florida and pushes deep tropical moisture to our area as it moves north.
1204 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Upper level clouds generally aoa 20kft will increase late today and persist overnight in advance upper low pressure as it lifts slowly into the region and dissipates. Early morning GOES products illustrate the northward slog of a cut-off low currently positioned over central Illinois with mid and high cloud debris glancing the Lower Michigan.
322 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure remains firmly over the North Country bringing ample sunshine with areas of fog in river valleys and colder hollows overnight; some frost cannot be ruled out for in the Adirondacks.
407 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Anomalously warm temperatures are prevailing across Upper Michigan this afternoon with high pressure centered over the area.
628 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 (Tonight) Tranquil weather persists over the Tennessee Valley as northwesterly flow continues over the area and high pressure remains dominant at the sfc.
1059 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Fair dry weather will continue for the end of the work week and start of the weekend as high pressure slowly slides east of the area. High pressure will bring continued dry weather to the region tonight. Lows will fall back into the low to mid 40s across the bulk of the region, with some upper 30s possible across the interior higher terrain. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s, some upper 60s across the higher terrain. A light wind and high clouds will keep it warmer overnight with lows in the upper 40s.
Showers and storms developed along the lake breeze in the Minnesota Arrowhead and along a warm front over north-central Minnesota. Temperatures Friday will reach the low to upper 70s, a bit on the warm side of normal for late September.
643 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Current WV satellite shows the upper trough that brought showers to the Permian Basin this morning is now in the eastern TX Panhandle and moving into Oklahoma. The lingering cloud cover is holding temps down a few degrees more than models were showing for this afternoon which is important because afternoon heating is the only thing left to destabilize the atmosphere with the upper trough leaving. Hi-res models are showing widely scattered convection developing, mainly west of the Pecos River where the higher elevations will aid in lift though some activity could make it farther east.
Freezing temperatures are expected tonight into Friday morning in Sierra valleys and possibly in colder western Nevada valleys. Another area to watch for rain showers will be northwest Lassen to northern Washoe County as the upper low digs southward in the next several hours. The compact upper low will begin to translate eastward this evening, allowing for skies to gradually clear during the nighttime and early morning hours. Be sure to protect sensitive vegetation and bring those furry friends indoors tonight! Additionally, clearing skies and subsequent freezing temperatures will likely promote a brief window of fog/freezing fog in the Martis Valley early Friday morning.
A large low pressure system will remain over northern Nevada through Friday then lift away across the Northern Intermountain Region.
Slow moving surface and upper lows across northern Illinois will keep clouds and rain chances across the area through late afternoon and tonight.
Guidance has virtually honed in on the highest rainfall totals developing along and west of a line from roughly Dixon, IL to Paxton, IL where amounts should generally be in the 0. Given that this area of northwestern and central Illinois has been relatively dry recently, I still believe that the threat for flooding remains on the lower side (level 1 out of 5). Heading into Friday morning, rain chances will gradually begin to taper from south to north as the system gets shoved into Wisconsin by a weak upper-level ridge. a blocking pattern), pleasant conditions are expected this weekend into at least the first half of the workweek.
Hernandez (This evening through Friday) Key Messages: - NHC has initiated advisories for potential tropical cyclone 16 off the coast. - Another set of days with highs in the low 70s to upper 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Forecast: The headline would be the formation of potential tropical cyclone 16 off the Georgia coastline this morning/afternoon. For the purposes of north and central Georgia, little impacts expected from the potential cyclone besides maybe a few showers this afternoon in far east central Georgia and some cloud cover.
533 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure will maintain dry weather across the region through Friday night.