Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strong high pressure will start the new week with the hottest temperatures of the year so far. A longwave trough sits along the Pacific Coast with a strong ridge axis along the outlines of the Rocky Mountains. Today, the 500mb ridge will stay around today and then it will weaken later tonight as the high pressure over northern Mexico starts to shift eastward towards Texas. The high thickness values will keep our temperatures up 10-12 degrees above seasonal normals and be near repeat of yesterday's temperatures.
304 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Satellite imagery shows ridge axis shifting slowly to the east, now over eastern MT, with broad troffing over the PacNW and southwest flow from SoCal to MT. Look for high temps in the mid 70s to lower 80s today, then mostly 70s Tuesday, as we remain slightly cooler than late June normals. JKL As the trough moves though Wed and Thur, chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue.
1013 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 A cold front will push across the area today.
821 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Upper level low pressure will provide humid, unsettled conditions with daily rounds of showers thunderstorms through the first half of the week, along with a trend towards below- normal temperature. This region is also in a better lift region as a trough axis crosses the ridges. A strong storm or two will be possible in the eastern ridges during the afternoon before that threat ends. Freezing levels will be around 12 KFT and a saturated profile below that will mean a chance for storms to produce heavy rainfall and this might lead to a minor flooding potential, especially in the east where storms the previous evening produced 1 to 2 inches.
604 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough digging into the Ohio Valley, with northwesterly flow over the CWA. At the surface, observations show a low spinning over the Great Lakes with an elongated area of high pressure extending southward along the Missouri Valley. This pattern has supported continued advection of cooler air into the CWA, with temperatures currently running 5-10 degrees cooler than at this point yesterday morning. Tomorrow, the upper-level trough will gradually shift eastward as a ridge begins to build into the region.
643 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 (Today) A partially cutoff upper low will gradually mature as it tracks east- southeastward into Lower MI this morning, before beginning to lift northeastward later today. Otherwise, we anticipate a mostly sunny sky today, with dewpoints (currently in the u60s-l70s) expected to gradually fall into the l-m 60s north of the TN River as low-level flow begins to veer to WNW in the wake of a weak cold front.
The large low pressure system responsible for last night's weather is still slowly tracking east over the Great Lakes. Its associated cold front was left behind by the convection and was laid out from western OH southwestward through central KY early this morning. The upper low and trough axis will be slowly moving away to the east on Tuesday, but will still retain enough influence with cool air aloft so that diurnal destabilization could again lead to some showers and thunderstorms, especially over our eastern counties closest to the upper level trough. It's interesting to note that there are still wind gusts around 30 mph on some ridges, this being due to mesoscale high pressure and a sharp pressure gradient behind the convective system.
449 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over central portions of the Dakotas and Nebraska. Weak energy passing through northern portions of the ridge is producing isolated to scattered showers and storms across central to northeastern portions of WY. A somewhat active week of weather is ahead as west to southwest flow ahead of a developing upper trough over the western US brings several disturbances across the region.
The highest chances are east of KLMT, but showers or thunderstorms in the area are not impossible.
733 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Aviation Mid level water vapor imagery reveals a well defined upper low traversing southern Lower Michigan early this morning. Both the low and mid level water vapor channels also show an advection of moisture wrapping around the northwest quadrant of the low pressure system, heading toward western Lower Michigan. Where showers are more frequent, expect temperatures to often be held in the low 60s or perhaps even down to 60 or so especially across our lakeshore counties. The highest gusts should occur near the lakeshore, with 30 mph possible. Rain coverage diminishes tonight and should end for most areas by early Tuesday morning as the low pressure system peels away.
624 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 (Today through Tuesday) RAP analysis at 06Z placed the center of the 597 dm H5 ridge to the south of El Paso.
Will feel little in the way of a temperature drop, but dewpoints will be about 10 degrees lower than yesterday, capping afternoon heat indices in the low to mid 90s.
742 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 A cold front will stall across the Gulf of Maine today through early week. High temperatures today will range from the mid 60s to around 70 across much of the forecast area, with around 60 to the lower 60s along the Downeast coast. The vertically stacked low pressure system over the Great Lakes will extend a warm front across the Downeast coast and remain fairly stationary on Tuesday morning.
This due to the strong upper low in the Great Lakes region shifting eastward, while high pressure ridge begins building into our area. Tuesday: Heat dome (upper high) in the southern Plains builds northward so a return of the heat begins again. Smoke/haze discussion: Northerly winds surface/aloft circulating around the upper low in the eastern Great Lakes was sending another bout of Canadian smoke/haze southward across Wisconsin.
(This evening through Tuesday) The upper ridge has shifted a bit east today and it is currently centered across south-central TX. At 1:30 pm, temperatures across the forecast area are actually running a bit cooler than yesterday at this time, mainly due to the higher moisture. Water vapor imagery shows some modest mid-level moisture and lift rotating around the ridge across southern NM. This wave should be able to gin up some t-storm activity across the higher terrain of NM this afternoon, spreading into NE NM. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will be gradually strengthening as a deep trough moves into the Great Basin and the ridge is nudged into east Texas.
Storms yesterday & this morning have wiped out the low-level Theta E, with more negative Theta E advection persisting in western portions of the region. 595-596DM upper high remains parked over west TX & will only build slightly east into central TX to near the ArkLaTex. With thermal profiles warming into the low to mid 20s or so at 850mb/925mb, which is near climatological maximum, support efficient warmth into the but highs should still top out into the low-mid 90s. Added another Heat Advisory for most areas outside of the northeast, where temps will be cooler.
Tonight and Tuesday Showers were gradually diminishing in coverage this afternoon across eastern Wisconsin as the upper low continues to move away from the area. At mid afternoon, temperatures were in the upper 50s far north to the lower 70s south.
1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 (Today through Tuesday) RAP analysis at 06Z placed the center of the 597 dm H5 ridge to the south of El Paso.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) An expansive ridge continues to build over Texas producing deep northwesterly flow over the Southeast. There will actually be lower dewpoints tomorrow as the front moves south of the area, but dewpoints today remain in the lower to mid 70s range which will result in heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees, especially across the southwest where a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM this evening.
A building mid-level ridge will shut down rain opportunities across the CWA through the short term period as high pressure becomes centered directly overhead by tomorrow morning. This will keep any subtle disturbances rounding the upper high displaced to our north and east, along with attendant convective chances. It should come as no surprise that the next couple of days will feature hotter temperatures given the expanding/strengthening ridge axis overhead, so triple-digit highs will be commonplace across much of the area today and tomorrow. /Issued 235 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ The last week of June will feature very hot temperatures across all of North and Central Texas as the mid level ridge dominates over the state of Texas.
Synoptic pattern of upper trof to the west will keep the diurnal threat for showers and thunderstorms going through Tuesday evening.
A few afternoon showers/isolated rumble of thunder remain possible across northeast portions this afternoon as pockets of vorticity translate through troughing gradually shifting ENE of the area. They also show respectable mid level lapse rates around the low 7C/km mark. A little cooler tonight.
Gradual height rises, subsidence and drying is expected tnt-Tue with a ridge of high pressure to finally arrive late on Tue.
313 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 As the stacked system over the Great Lakes region slowly moves off to the east over the next 24 to 36 hours, the upper level ridge over the Central Plains will slide east into the region. For tonight, the diurnal cu will diminish by sunset with dry and slightly cooler weather as temperatures drop into the upper 50s to upper 60s. On Tuesday, as the upper level ridge builds into the region, 850mb temperatures will begin to rise from the southwest, so expect a 2 to 4 degree rise in highs.
By late in the week, high pressure will build in with a sharp warming trend expected.
And although the ridge is expected to weaken slightly, temperatures will continue to be dangerously hot, with highs as hot as 110+ degrees for much of the area, after morning lows as warm as 80 degrees in some locations.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Current satellite imagery shows cumulus slowly building across the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau while surface observations depict a weak lingering boundary draped across the I-20 corridor. If you're looking for some good news about the heat, you'll actually find some here! It's not really a heat wave busting cooldown but we'll see a gradual cooling trend through tomorrow as the center of the upper ridge jogs eastward towards east-central Texas. " Though it may "feel" cooler than it really is, sweat can evaporate away the second it wicks onto the skin, leading to rapid dehydration and heat exhaustion.
123 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 A slow moving low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes will lead to occasional showers and a chance for thunderstorms today through Tuesday. Ongoing fcst remains on track as cloud cover continues to increase locally as moisture pinwheels around an unseasonably deep mid/upper low over the Great Lakes region. Upper level low pressure will shift slowly east across lower Michigan through this afternoon. Mid level energy rotating around the low will combine with low level covergent flow across the region to produce showers today. The upper level low will weaken as it moves slowly east across the lower Great Lakes tonight through Tuesday. Lows tonight will be mostly in the lower 60s with highs on Tuesday in the 70s.
245 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Dry conditions on the horizon for the majority of north and central Georgia as a low pressure system over the Great Lakes region pushes a dry surface front across the area through tonight. Dry conditions expected throughout the CWA by Tuesday afternoon as the surface cold front pushes out of the area , leaving behind mostly sunny conditions and dry conditions. Temperatures will increase tomorrow, with majority of the CWA reaching into the low to mid 90s.
Much more tolerable weather is expected through Tuesday as dewpoints remain low with temperatures in the low 90s.
111 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Current upper air analysis shows upper low situated over the Great Lakes region, with upper ridging over the northern and central plains, another upper trough over the PAC NW. At the surface, high pressure sits over the eastern SD/NE border. Upper ridge slides east of the region today, with southwest flow aloft developing. 0-6km bulk shear ranges 30-55kts, with the higher shear values in far southern SD and the Black Hills. Towards mid-week, ridge over the northern and central plains flattens out as upper trough deepens over the far western CONUS and eventually slides over the Rockies toward the weekend.
Later tonight into Tuesday morning upper level ridging weakens in the west and shifts east, which appears to allow some elevated instability to creep into central SD.
A building mid-level ridge will shut down rain opportunities across the CWA through the short term period as high pressure becomes centered directly overhead by tomorrow morning. This will keep any subtle disturbances rounding the upper high displaced to our north and east, along with attendant convective chances. It should come as no surprise that the next couple of days will feature hotter temperatures given the expanding/strengthening ridge axis overhead, so triple-digit highs will be commonplace across much of the area today and tomorrow.
1255 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023 A upper level low is apparent on GOES Water Vapor imagery along the OR/WA/ID border. Atmospheric moisture continues to run above normal in the vicinity of this low, with precipitable water values of 0. The highest threat of storms and heavy rain will set up across I-90 and US-93 corridors south and east of Missoula, where HREF guidance suggests a 30-50% probability for locally up to 1â of rain between 3-6pm. The aforementioned low pressure system will move over Idaho County tonight into Tuesday morning. Atmospheric instability and lift in the vicinity of this low will drive widespread shower activity across north-central Idaho and west-central Montana.
The pattern remains unchanged as a mid- level ridge continue to remain fairly stationary over Deep South Texas. Continued elevated dewpoints combined with the high temperatures will lead to Heat Advisory conditions today and tomorrow.
This will allow for much more tolerable conditions as afternoon temperatures rise into the low 90s.
1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 As the upper level ridge builds over the Plains, the weather should remain dry for the most part and start to warm up.
The extreme heating due to the subsidence attributed to the ridge should result in better mixing of dewpoints compared to the previous days of this heatwave, which consequently means heat indices won't be as oppressive.
Upper level analysis places ridging stretching from the lee of the Central Rockies into the Northern Plains, though this has flattened out a bit on the northern end over our area where a variety of weak disturbances are moving through. The progression of the weakening upper level ridge eastward continues through the end of the workweek.
Strong high pressure will start the new week with the hottest temperatures of the year so far. Latest IR/WV imagery shows partly cloudy skies this morning across southeast Arizona with a strong mid/upper level high located across northern Chihuahua.
1222 PM PDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Temperatures will quickly increase this week as a heat wave arrives to the region due to high pressure aloft.
Mid to upper level ridge centered across TX will continue to dominate the weather pattern during the short term period. At the sfc, a high pressure centered over the Gulf continues to bring warmer and humid southerly flow into the region. Temperatures are progged to be slightly warmer on Tuesday as the aforementioned upper ridge slowly shifts east and 850mb temperatures rise in the upper 20 Â°C under a south to southwesterly flow.
The majority of the area will remain dry, however, a few isolated showers or rumbles of thunder are possible across NE TN and SW VA this afternoon and evening as a few pockets of vorticity translate through upper level troughing along our NE periphery. A fairly similar story tomorrow, with the only change being that the troughing continues to shift a little further ENE as ridging across the central CONUS starts to nudge eastward.
1237 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night ) Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, were ongoing over portions of SW AR this morning along and ahead of a slowly advancing cold front (oriented NW to SE). In the upper levels, a stout ridge was in place across the Srn CONUS with clockwise flow around this high. Today, drier conditions are expected over the Nrn two-thirds of the state as high pressure brings more stable and drier air into the region from the N. Temperatures will still be warm with readings in the lower/mid 90s, but dew points will be more tolerable, i. Monday night, the frontal boundary will stall, then start a slow retreat to the N as a warm front.
The bulk of additional rainfall is expected to fall in this area and much of central Lower MI beneath the larger scale upper low. The low opens and ejects east on Tuesday and most precipitation should be east of the forecast area by late morning.
1023 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 As the upper level ridge builds over the Plains, the weather should remain dry for the most part and start to warm up.
Temperatures are on track to climb into the lower 80s for many locations.
Strong high pressure will continue to result in hot temperatures, especially early in the week. Latest IR/WV imagery shows partly cloudy skies across southeast Arizona with a strong mid/upper level high located across northern Chihuahua. With the subtropical high to our south and east and trough to our northwest much of the week, our region will be under continued southwest flow between these features.
1212 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 (Today through Tuesday) It has been said many times before, however the mid-level ridge continues to stay over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The mid-level ridge will continue to be the dominating factor of the weather in the region for the duration of the short term forecast. As for the low temperatures for tonight, expecting them to be in the range of upper 70s to low 80s.
5 concentrations have been observed at unhealthy levels at the Seney Wildlife Refuge and with continued (though weakening) northerly flow behind the low pressure, the smoky conditions will continue through the short term. With a moistened boundary layer and clearing skies tonight as the low evacuates east, some fog development is possible overnight, especially in the west where winds are expected to relax significantly. Upper air pattern consists of a trough on the west coast and another on the east coast with a ridge over the plains 12z Tue. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri which slowly moves to the lower Great Lakes by 12z Mon. With the trough in the area, cannot rule out some pops almost every single day and also the possibility of some lake breeze convection.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) A mid level trough continues to remain in place over the region this afternoon as ridges of high pressure are centered over the Southern Plains and the western Atlantic. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 70s across the coastal areas. On Tuesday, as the mid level trough slides off into the western Atlantic, the mid level ridge over the Southern Plains and the Gulf of Mexico will slowly try to build in from the west. With decreased coverage of showers and thunderstorms, this will start a trend towards even warmer temperatures with less cloud cover and more and sunshine. High temperatures will generally rise into the lower 90s across most of South Florida on Tuesday.
223 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 A strong and hot upper ridge over the Southern Plains will pretty much remain in place for the next few days. That ridge extends north into the forecast area. Energy riding through the ridge will provide for rain chances both tnt and Tuesday night over the Dakotas. Increasing deep layer shear could lead to a few severe storms for southwest SD, but moisture/instability will be somewhat lacking, and suspect most severe storms will struggle to get east of the High Plains region. Tuesday night may bring more widespread activity as a healthier looking wave tops the ridge.
1038 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over central portions of the Dakotas and Nebraska. Weak energy passing through northern portions of the ridge is producing isolated to scattered showers and storms across central to northeastern portions of WY. A somewhat active week of weather is ahead as west to southwest flow ahead of a developing upper trough over the western US brings several disturbances across the region.
Dry weather will continue overnight as lows fall into the low to mid 60s.
Upper troughing nearby will lead to below normal temperatures and onshore winds through midweek. Temperatures warm to above normal by week's end as high pressure gradually builds into the region. (This evening through Tuesday) Troughing pattern continues today with all-day stratus hanging on along a few coastal locations. Persistence is the name of the game into Tuesday as well, with troughing and a deep marine layer once again. Upper trough influence finally starts to weaken by late Tuesday and is replaced by a strengthening ridge, which will trigger a notable warming trend into the weekend.
327 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Summary: The low pressure system that brought widespread rain throughout the weekend has moved off to MI with wrap around moisture dissipating across NW WI this afternoon.
Most of the island chain registered accumulating rains as early afternoon cloud lines interacted with a weak inverted trough. A thick shield of anvil rains persist across the Lower Keys, but this should be done in the next hour or so. The mean-layer ridge over Mexico and the southern Plains will lumber eastward over the next several days. However, at least based on this morning's RAOBs, the strength of this ridge will wane based on the broad expanse of falling 500 and 200 mb heights within its core and to its east. Forecast soundings and time-height cross sections describe much drier air will invade our column as northwesterlies and northerlies round the southeastern flank of the ridge. In the low levels and at the SFC, the western extent of the fractured ridging will waffle north and south across South Florida.
/Tonight through Monday/ Key Messages: - Warmer through the middle of the week with highs into 80s/90s. This afternoon the local area continues to feel impacts stemming from an anomalously deep upper low now tracking through the Great Lakes region. Skies clear tonight as an upper ridge builds aloft.
(This evening through Tuesday) A cold front that is providing temporary relief from heat and high humidity (most areas), has become nearly stationary across far southeast Oklahoma and northern Texas.
We'll see similar conditions tomorrow thanks to an upper low over the Great Lakes region pushing in drier air from the northwest. This low will gradually move northeast Tuesday night as high pressure builds over Texas and Louisiana.
Gusty southwest winds and near-normal temperatures are expected for today as Arizona remains sandwiched in between a trough to the west and a ridge to the east.
Key Messages: -Zonal flow mid week transitions to a split flow aloft, with uncertainty on the negatively tilted trough in the Southwestern United States.
1217 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 A cold front will stall across the Gulf of Maine today through early week. High temperatures today will range from the mid 60s to around 70 across much of the forecast area, with around 60 to the lower 60s along the Downeast coast. The vertically stacked low pressure system over the Great Lakes will extend a warm front across the Downeast coast and remain fairly stationary on Tuesday morning.