Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1031 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 (This evening through Sunday night) In the immediate term, expect precipitation to continue, particularly in the eastern Panhandles in the vicinity of an 850mb cold front as frontogenesis increases in response to an arriving secondary cold front this afternoon. As for precipitation type, while progged low level warm advection has occurred, this is not translating to much warming at the surface, setting up an axis of freezing rain in the southern and central Panhandles, save the SE TX Panhandle where temps have been above freezing. With the Winter Weather Advisory have been previously expanded due to issues on bridges in the southern TX Panhandle, have left headlines as is with this update.
Currently - High pressure stretches from the southeastern United States to off the New England Coast. Meanwhile, a couple of weak low pressure systems are nestled to the south of this long ridge, one in the western gulf and one well off the Carolina coast. Much of the associated cloud cover and embedded shower activity has now lifted north of our area and the Keys are solidly in the warmer and more moist sector. The combination of a ridge across the eastern United States and a couple of weak lows, one in the western Gulf of Mexico and another off the Carolina Coast will maintain light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Persistent high pressure will build, keeping the region dry and stagnant with little variation in temperatures each day. Freezing fog will be a daily concern as well.
A cold front pushing through the region will bring a shift to northwest winds and cooler, drier air heading into tonight.
515 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 * A cold front will move into the region through the day Sunday, bringing light rain to the region.
Today and Monday The area remains on the eastern edge of an area of high pressure. The only sensible weather concern continues to be low stratus and/or freezing fog the next couple of overnights and into the morning hours. With temperatures very cold, freezing fog and some light ice accretion will be possible in these areas.
These winds will begin to affect all but the very far eastern part of the CWA this morning, then will continue through the afternoon before diminishing early this evening as high pressure settles in.
Expect travel impacts to continue until surface temperatures warm above freezing early this afternoon. - Cold and breezy today with highs in the mid 30s and wind chills remaining below freezing all day.
350 AM MST Sun Nov 26 2023 - Expect low clouds and fog trapped beneath the low level inversion to persist well into the morning for a number of valley locations.
As surface ridging pushes into western KS this evening and overnight, this should create a good set up for radiational cooling, bringing lows into the teens. For the beginning of the work week, broad upper troughing remains over the eastern half of the CONUS with an amplifying ridge over the western third. This sets up northwesterly flow aloft in our area to keep temperatures cooler than average.
Discussion: Clipper and its associated cold front is working its way through our area early this morning.
557 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front continues to work its way southward across the area this morning, with temperatures having dropped into the 30s and 40s behind the front. However, cold air advection will keep temperatures on the chilly side, with highs topping out only in the lower 50s.
Key Messages: * Temperatures will be a little warmer today with highs in the 30s, but very windy. * Temperatures trend warmer through the middle of the week starting Monday.
There is a broad area of low pressure over the west central Gulf and a warm front extending from there across the Gulf into Florida. Over the course of the day, the low will make its way ENE, skirting the LA coastline as it does. Across OK / TX is a cold front that is making its way south and east across the area. The cold front, in tandem with the low, will bring us a decent shot of rain, albeit not much. Tomorrows MaxTs will be limited to the mid 50s, with chillier MinTs in the lower 30s inland to lower 40s along the immediate coastline as the high pressure settles over the CWA.
318 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 - Light snow over western WI to end around sunrise, followed by another round of light snow across the entire area through the day today ahead of a cold frontal passage. - Strong northwest winds expected today behind the cold front, with gusts 30-40 mph likely through this evening.
(Sunday through Monday) Showers are currently ongoing across the region, as that cold front we've been advertising the last few days is making its final approach. Our north zones will already begin experiencing cold-air advection behind the front, with the rest of our region expected to see those cooler temperatures tomorrow. As such, look for lows tonight to be at, or below freezing area-wide.
519 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 (Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery currently shows the UL trough tracking from the central High Plains early this morning where it is expected to enter the Midwest region by this afternoon. We will begin to make the transition back into a dry and quiet pattern for the short term as we lose all jet flow dynamics with the exiting trough and zonal flow prevailing. The secondary cold front has made its way through the area as of 12 AM CST with north winds prevailing.
430 AM MST Sun Nov 26 2023 Quiet, if breezy, weather is expected over the next few days as upper level ridging builds in across the West Coast. Temperatures will gradually warm over the next few days, before cooler air works in for mid week. Quiet weather is expected through the middle of this week as upper level ridging to our west keeps dry northwesterly flow entrenched across the area.
440 AM MST Sun Nov 26 2023 - Expect low clouds and fog trapped beneath the low level inversion to persist well into the morning for a number of valley locations.
- A cold front will bring strong northwesterly winds across the region today, with gusts up to 40 mph possible. Another longwave trough will move across the northern Plains and an attendant cold front will pass through the area. Even with the frontal passage, high temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees warmer due to warmer 850 hPa temps and modest mid-level height increases.
646 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Main area of snow along and ahead of the cold front is pushing into central and northeastern MN. Discussion: Clipper and its associated cold front is working its way through our area early this morning.
550 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Light rain is currently spreading across the Midsouth ahead of an Arctic cold front.
727 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2023 The upper-level flow remains flat and predominantly zonal in the vicinity of the FL peninsula with a sprawling ridge over the Caribbean and a trough propagating through the Midwest. At the surface, a warm front is beginning to lift northward over the FL peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. That becomes especially likely as instability increases along the warm front through the day. As the trough axis propagates eastward through today and into tomorrow, an attendant cold front pushes south, bringing a cooler and drier airmass back to the FL peninsula once more.
639 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 (Today through Monday) A Gulf low has developed as expected south of LA with a warm front stretching east to to Tampa, FL. Meanwhile, high pressure is in control across much of the eastern CONUS. This morning, the low in the Gulf will continue to slide east, remaining off the coast. By sunset the low should be moving in the Big Bend area of FL. At the same time the low in MO will continue it hook to the northeast through the Ohio Valley by sunset. Dry conditions remain on Monday with generally sunny skies as high pressure builds into the region.
Low temperatures tonight will call into the lower to mid 40s across the area.
349 AM MST Sun Nov 26 2023 Quiet, if breezy, weather is expected over the next few days as upper level ridging builds in across the West Coast. Temperatures will gradually warm over the next few days, before cooler air works in for mid week. Quiet weather is expected through the middle of this week as upper level ridging to our west keeps dry northwesterly flow entrenched across the area.
This morning, northwesterly flow continues to shift into the area behind departing trough axis situated across eastern Nebraska and stretching south into Kansas. With the main PV anomaly overhead by mid-morning, the enhanced flow promoting CAA will push to the surface by way of efficient momentum transfer from unidirectional winds in the lowest 2-3km. Though northwesterly flow should mix out the boundary layer some and h85 temperatures climb a bit from yesterday's values, find it hard to believe many locations manage to climb above freezing where the deepest snowpack resides. This holds afternoon values into the upper 20s to low 30s across the Sandhills where parts of southwest Nebraska should manage to break the freezing mark in the low to middle 30s.
518 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 (Today through Monday afternoon) A cold front is draped across parts of southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin this morning. It will gradually push through to the south and drier, cooler air will move in over the course of today. Sunday evening and into Monday morning see temperatures drop near freezing for the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the higher elevations. Highs on Monday do not move up much from today, but winds do shift easterly to southeasterly and most spots reach into the low 50s.
537 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 (Sunday through Monday) Showers are currently ongoing across the region, as that cold front we've been advertising the last few days is making its final approach. Our north zones will already begin experiencing cold-air advection behind the front, with the rest of our region expected to see those cooler temperatures tomorrow. As such, look for lows tonight to be at, or below freezing area-wide.
Fresh sfc snow will continue to hold temperatures back a bit during the day, with highs generally in the low to mid 20s. Some downsloping may help bring temps near freezing for the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County, helped by the lighter amount of snow left over. H5 ridging continues to build to the west along the west coast. This ridge is expected to drift east along the Rockies through midweek, keeping the storm track well away from the state. The ridge finally gets flattened by a trough off the West Coast, which sweeps southeast into the Four Corners Region. But this opens the door for a trailing trough for late week.
212 AM MST Sun Nov 26 2023 Current analysis and satellite imagery shows clear skies over the area as the upper level trough axis has shifted eastward into central Kansas. Northwest winds are forecast to increase towards sunrise as the gradient between high pressure to the west-northwest and low pressure to the east-southeast tightens, peaking mid to late morning with gusts up to ~30-40 mph. Into the start of the work week, an upper level ridge begins building over the western CONUS.
433 AM MST Sun Nov 26 2023 Current analysis and satellite imagery shows clear skies over the area as the upper level trough axis has shifted eastward into central Kansas. Northwest winds are forecast to increase towards sunrise as the gradient between high pressure to the west-northwest and low pressure to the east-southeast tightens, peaking mid to late morning with gusts up to ~30-40 mph. Into the start of the work week, an upper level ridge begins building over the western CONUS.
Temperatures are hovering in the mid to upper 70s, with dewpoints in the lower 70s, and winds on land from the east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Surface analysis shows the old frontal boundary that lingered over our area for the past few days now extending from South Florida into the central Gulf of Mexico, with the next cold front located over the southern/central Plains. Mainly dry weather will continue tonight and Monday, as the mid level ridge holds just to our south ahead of the next mid latitude trough and surface cold front. Minor radiational cooling will be likely across the interior of the larger islands tonight as winds become light/variable, but with dewpoints in the lower 70s the impact of this will be quite limited.
512 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 (Today through Monday) The advertised cold front has worked its way through much of the northern half of the state as of this writing and will eventually push south of the CWA through the morning hours. Nevertheless, strong cold air advection will likely bring temperatures down into the 30s for most areas north of San Antonio for Monday morning, and to the low 40s for areas to the south.
542 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 - Light snow over western WI to end around sunrise, followed by another round of light snow across the entire area through the day today ahead of a cold frontal passage. - Strong northwest winds expected today behind the cold front, with gusts 30-40 mph likely through this evening.
Light rain is currently spreading across the Midsouth ahead of an Arctic cold front.
239 AM MST Sun Nov 26 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: A large trough currently drops south from arctic air over Nunavut and into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. A high amplitude ridge runs up the west coast from California to British Columbia. Farther west another large trough exists behind the west coast ridge.
(Today and tonight) A cold front continues to work its way southward across the area this morning, with temperatures having dropped into the 30s and 40s behind the front. However, cold air advection will keep temperatures on the chilly side, with highs topping out only in the lower 50s.
442 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 (Today through Monday Night) Scattered rain is moving NE across the area early this SUn morning ahead of a cold front. This cold front will push SE into the state by sunrise. with breezy NW winds ushering much drier and somewhat cooler air to the state for this afternoon.
511 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 (Today through Monday) Much warmer this morning across the midstate than the past few mornings with current temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s thanks to light southeast winds. The warmer temps and light winds are occurring due to weak WAA ahead of an approaching upper trough axis that will bring light rain to the area today. After the rain exits Middle Tennessee this evening, a cold front will sweep through and usher in much colder and dry weather for Monday.
348 AM MST Sun Nov 26 2023 Key Messages: - Dry, quiet weather with slightly warmer temperatures today. Today will be the return of dry weather conditions across the area as well as slowly warming temperatures as the upper-level trough in our region departs to our east. Looking at today's high temperatures, this will be the start of a short warming trend into the start of the week, with highs over the plains in the high-30s to low-40s, while the valleys remain in the 30s.
(Today through Monday) A Gulf low has developed as expected south of LA with a warm front stretching east to to Tampa, FL. Meanwhile, high pressure is in control across much of the eastern CONUS. This morning, the low in the Gulf will continue to slide east, remaining off the coast. By sunset the low should be moving in the Big Bend area of FL. At the same time the low in MO will continue it hook to the northeast through the Ohio Valley by sunset. Dry conditions remain on Monday with generally sunny skies as high pressure builds into the region.
1034 AM MST Sun Nov 26 2023 - Expect low clouds and fog trapped beneath the low level inversion to persist well into the morning for a number of valley locations and through the day in the Uinta Basin.
Starting Monday a ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest will flex its muscles eastward a bit and push any disturbances that may ride down the northwest flow aloft further to the east, thus not impacting our area.
Falling temperatures will allow for freezing of wet, untreated roads. All but far SE parts have been seeing snow vs rain as wet bulb temps have held strong at or below freezing. Above freezing ground and road temps have limited accumulations across the area, but grassy surfaces NW of I-69 showing some accumulations on grassy areas. Struggle in ptypes will continue over the next several hours as slightly warmer air attempts to move in and may allow somewhat of a mix in areas seeing predominately snow. Concerns for roads conditions will increase somewhat tonight despite precip ending for most areas as temps fall below freezing further and winds increase, causing a re- freeze of untreated roads.
(This evening through Monday) Our persistent low stratus deck cleared out this morning, thanks to drier air being ushered in behind the upper level trough and cold front. This puts lows tomorrow morning in the mid to upper 20s in the northern Big Country and the low to mid 30s in the I-10 corridor. Tomorrows temperatures will be more than 10 degrees below normal in some areas, with values in the low to mid 50s. Winds will remain light and turn to the east as the high pressure situates itself to our north.
1123 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 * A cold front will move into the region through the day Sunday, bringing light rain to the region.
213 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Key Messages: - Slick spots possible from above freezing daytime highs and cold overnight lows - Gradually warming into midweek - Wet weather possible (30-60%) late week into the weekend Discussion: Focus for the next several days will be gradually warming temperatures in the wake of the departing upper trough.
Made some slight modifications to the near-term forecast in regards to the lower PoPs across the area. The ongoing cloud cover combined with limited sunshine will help keep afternoon temperatures in the low 60s. A cold front pushing through the region will bring a shift to northwest winds and cooler, drier air heading into tonight.
904 AM MST Sun Nov 26 2023 Current analysis and satellite imagery shows clear skies over the area as the upper level trough axis has shifted eastward into central Kansas. Northwest winds are forecast to increase towards sunrise as the gradient between high pressure to the west-northwest and low pressure to the east-southeast tightens, peaking mid to late morning with gusts up to ~30-40 mph. Into the start of the work week, an upper level ridge begins building over the western CONUS.
Early afternoon radar imagery shows some remaining flurries scattered across the region, though we'll be watching them dissipate throughout the afternoon hours now that the 500mb trough axis has swung through. While weak cold air advection will continue into the overnight hours, winds should remain high enough to avoid dipping down into the upper single digits, though overnight lows remain in the lower to upper teens across the region.
805 AM MST Sun Nov 26 2023 Quiet, if breezy, weather is expected over the next few days as upper level ridging builds in across the West Coast. Temperatures will gradually warm over the next few days, before cooler air works in for mid week. /ISSUED 430 AM MST Sun Nov 26 2023/ Quiet weather is expected through the middle of this week as upper level ridging to our west keeps dry northwesterly flow entrenched across the area.
240 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Key Messages: * We are warmer today than anticipated and snow has melted across most of the area except a few deeper swaths.
Areas of light rain showers through this evening as a cold front moves across the area. Vertical temperature profile becomes cold enough for a light mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the higher elevations Monday morning, generally above 4kft. Discussion: Through this evening, an upper trough will swing northeast across the Ohio valley and Great Lakes. A 30-35 knot 850mb jet out of the southwest ahead of a cold front located from east Kentucky into far west Tennessee. For Tonight, the cold front will sweep across the area with colder airmass ushering into 850mb temperatures of -2 to -8 degrees toward morning. For Monday, HREF and late deterministic models show a gradual erosion of the low-deck clouds with most locations becoming sunny in the afternoon.
1105 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 (Today through Monday) The advertised cold front has worked its way through much of the northern half of the state as of this writing and will eventually push south of the CWA through the morning hours. Nevertheless, strong cold air advection will likely bring temperatures down into the 30s for most areas north of San Antonio for Monday morning, and to the low 40s for areas to the south.
(Tonight through Monday night) Colder air is in place behind the cold front that moved through this morning.
214 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Key Messages: - Light snow continues to fall across the region this afternoon ahead of a cold front.
We have a gloomy Sunday for most of us across West Central Florida due to a warm front that is sitting just north of Pasco County. This will continue for the rest of day before an upper level trough help to finally push the front through us one more time as a cold front overnight. Clearing skies and cooler weather will be filtering into the area on Monday. This will help to limit temperatures rising in the afternoon with highs only about 10 degrees warmer then what we wake up to tomorrow morning.
1153 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 (Rest of Today) Broad cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of central/eastern North America today, downstream from a developing split flow block along the Pacific Coast and to the N/W of a subtropical ridge centered over the Greater Antilles. Embedded within this regime, a lead vort max will lift east-northeastward from western MO into eastern OH/western PA by 0Z ahead of a more amplified northern stream trough digging southeastward across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Due to an abundance of low stratus clouds (that should begin to slowly lift/scatter later this afternoon), we have lowered the high temperature forecast to reflect u40s-l50s in the eastern portion of the CWFA and mid 50s in the west.
(This evening through Monday night) 19z WV satellite shows a large scale upper trough over the Midwest and northwesterly flow aloft over the Panhandles. At the surface, winds are out of the north in the wake of yesterday's reinforcing cold front. Thus, expect highs to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in the southern Texas Panhandle while some portions of the northeast may hold back in the lower 40s if snowpack persists.
1150 AM MST Sun Nov 26 2023 IR currently depicts an upper level ridge across much of the Rocky Mountain west with northwest flow aloft. There is a deep upper level low off the west coast that has closed off from a deep trough over the GOA that will come in to play later in the week.
Forecast Details: Light snow associated with the first upper trough will exit east of the area this afternoon, with a secondary area of snow showers associated with the second trough and cold front swinging across the area from west to east this afternoon and early evening. It will be a cold night with lows dropping to between 10 and 20 degrees for most of the area, with slightly warmer readings near the shores of Lake Michigan.
Western Montana and north central Idaho will remain under north to northwesterly flow aloft as a ridge of high pressure continues to strengthen along the Pacific northwest coast.
High temperatures will only reach the low to mid 40s this afternoon.
Waves of beneficial rainfall continue as a Gulf low near Apalachee Bay progresses eastward along its warm front draped across north- central FL this afternoon into evening. The focus of the rainfall has been along the I-10 corridor and the FL/GA state border due to the moist SW 850 mb flow overrunning the cool, stable NE low- level flow in place north of the warm front. 5-1 inch will be possible before the low departs. Rain tapers off from west to east tonight as the low exits into the coastal waters and lifts NE into the Atlantic.