Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These are ahead of an approaching cold front and we will continue to see showers as we head into the afternoon across the area.
Still, with cloud cover hanging around through the day today, highs are expected to be mainly in the 50s except for the far southern extent of the UP, which could reach the low 60s.
141 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A deep upper level trough will dig through the central Great Lakes the rest of today and tonight. This will be replaced by isolated to scattered showers during the balance of the day as upper level troughing gradually works east into the region and low level moisture remains sufficient to generate weak low level instability. The upper level cold pool associated with this upper trough/low shifts over the area on Wednesday with temperatures only climbing into the lower to mid 60s for highs.
A cold front moves through tonight, and morning clouds will dissipate by tomorrow afternoon. Providing some lift is a pre-frontal trough, which surface obs indicate is located from the VA/KY border to CHA. Most of this activity will move east of our area by midnight, although some lingering showers may continue later in the night until the passage of the cold front, which is expected to be between 06-10Z.
331 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in the presence of analyzed 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE ahead of an incoming cold front. The front will get a more substantial push southeastward by late in the day Wednesday as the larger trough swings across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
322 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 In the wake of a cold frontal passage, cooler and drier air was gradually filtering into the region this afternoon.
Highs slightly cooler than yesterday, with breezy west winds expected during the afternoon.
403 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A trough will linger across the Great Lakes through mid-week. High pressure will then build into the region through the end of the week and into the start of the weekend. A low pressure system may move across the Great Lakes towards the end of the weekend. The cold front is progressing eastward across the area this afternoon, roughly drawn southwest to northeast along the I-71 corridor, extending northeast along the I-90 lakeshore.
Enjoy! TFJ An upper ridge over Saskatchewan and eastern Montana will move to the east today. A somewhat unstable atmosphere and mid level moister with this trough may be enough to produce a few isolated showers tonight in the western zones. It will be a warm day ahead of the front with highs in the lower 80s in most areas.
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night) We are seeing light showers ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Great weather is expected for tomorrow as upper level ridging begin to build into the area.
1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A broad upper level trough extending through the Central Plains is moving east. A cold front preceding the aforementioned trough is bisecting the Mid-South and resulting in post-frontal rain showers across the area. A cold front will move southeast across the Mid-South today with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected to form ahead of the front. High pressure will start to build into the region tonight bringing a period of mainly dry weather and below normal temperatures. Another cold front will move across the Mid-South over the weekend bringing another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Slow clearing of cloud cover over Mohave County and as a result cooler temperatures over the area may somewhat delay convective initiation. Tomorrow, a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean and zonal flow over the Four Corners states will create northwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area.
(Tonight) A relatively benign night is expected across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with high pressure building across the area.
The H5 ridge, which has been a staple across Deep South Texas this summer, has been squished south the past 24 hours.
355 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A mid-level trough will move east through the Great Lakes tonight, with a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. As the trough moves east, cooler temperatures and drier conditions are expected through the end of the week. A broad mid-level trough to settle southeast into the Great tonight. Behind the cold front, dry conditions are expected after midnight. The base of the mid level trof to pivot east-southeast through the southern Great Lakes.
Key Points: * Cooler weather with temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of the year. A large, positively tilted upper trough is centered over the Midwest this afternoon. Lapse rates are already starting to steepen in the low levels, with our special 12.
The mid to upper level pattern throughout the short term period will consist of a ridge over the Northern Plains with more of a zonal flow over the Southern Plains.
1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 (Today and tonight) Much cooler and stable conditions will take hold over the area today. Surface ridging was filling in behind the cold front that moved through yesterday afternoon.
138 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2023 19Z analysis shows an upper ridge over the region.
259 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A cold front continues to push across central Indiana. Most areas will fall into the upper 40s tonight with far southern counties being slightly warmer in the low 50s. However, some guidance shows a subtle mid-level impulse associated with an upper trough across the Great Lakes Region moving through which may bring light precipitation to northwest portions of the area. NNW flow at around 5-10 mph and upper troughing will keep highs below normal. The track of Hurricane Lee north in the western Atlantic Ocean later this week into the weekend will serve to lock the pattern up with broad high pressure parked west of the tropical system and encompassing much of the eastern half of the country.
1020 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2023 08z surface analysis had weak trough from central MT into south- central SD. Water vapour loop had upper level ridge building into the northern Plains.
Southern California is centered between two systems today: a weakening high-amplitude ridge centered over the Canadian Prairies, and weak troughing that will move into the southwestern United States.
Forecast Discussion: High pressure centered over central Nebraska and western Kansas dominates our weather today. The surface pattern shifts slightly tomorrow as high pressure slides east, however, sensible weather will be very similar to today with another enjoyable day expected.
(This evening through Wednesday) Surface cold front is currently analyzed just north of Jackson, Mississippi northeastward to Cullman and Scottsboro. Highs will range from the lower 80s in the northwest behind the front to around 90 ahead of the front, which will eventually stall out somewhere near the U.
252 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A short wave trough embedded in the westerly flow will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the southern half of Colorado. The northern extend of convection looks to be over the higher terrain and just north of I-70. It will be another cool night, but not quite a cool as last night due to a slightly warmer airmass. A stronger trough will be moving south across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Precipitable water values climb to a half inch over the higher terrain and 0. This is good moisture for the higher terrain and just so-so for the plains. This moisture and CAPE up to 600 J/kg is expected to lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
143 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Expect mainly dry conditions through the next 7 days with a couple weak cold fronts. An upper low near the Aleutian Islands of Alaska is sending disturbances east into Canada and the Pacific NW. A cold front will also move across the area tomorrow and bring a slight chance of showers to the CWA into tomorrow night.
A surface cold front currently extends across portions of the Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Otherwise, owing to cloud cover/showers and influence from a Northern Plains high pressure cell, temperatures will continue to run 8-12 degrees below normal this afternoon (70s) and remain cool overnight (low-50s to low-60s).
Upper trough continues to rotate over the Great Lakes states, with brief ridging moving into the western Plains. The center of the high will move down towards Lake Superior tonight, with northeasterly winds becoming southeasterly and bringing some mid 30s dew points into the Lake of the Woods region. Given temperatures last night that got lower than expected in northeastern ND, and lows in northwestern MN have been cooler on lows (and warmer on highs) with dry soils, think that chances are pretty good for some frost. Even more warm air advection Wednesday night as the next trough starts to move into the western Plains.
***UPDATE*** Today begins a long stretch of cooler weather as the tropical influence is gone and onshore flow has returned. Temperatures are starting off much cooler in most areas, especially along parts of the Central Coast where it's as much as 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. Most areas though will end up 5-10 degrees cooler, bringing highs to close to or just slightly below normal.
1244 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 (Today through Wednesday) An upper level trough is currently swinging out of Canada across the upper/mid Mississippi Valley and will continue to rotate through the Ohio River Valley Wednesday. With the base of the trough generally north of Tennessee, the frontal boundary associated with the trough will dissipate as it reaches the CWA.
(This evening through Wednesday) Westerly flow aloft will continue over the short term with the upper level trough to our northeast and an upper level high to our southwest. Moisture advection will continue tomorrow allowing for cloud cover to stick around, therefore we can expect the cooler temperatures to continue in the 70s.
A weak front will move across Western Washington today, with cooler and cloudier conditions today as some light rain moves through.
A stronger cold front and its associated upper-level trough will pass through the area later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure will build overhead for late in the week into the weekend. Upper trough across the western Great Lks is expected to amplify across the northern Mid-Atlantic into the central Applachians next 24 to 36 hrs hours. Sfc cold front will be crossing the area after 12Z Wed, but 925 and 850 mb dewpoint fronts will be lagging behind as well as 500 mb trof axis. So, expect the risk of showers to persist through much of the day particularly east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Weak high pressure builds over the region for the second half of the week leading to cooler and fair weather conditions.
which persist across the western zones into Wednesday morning as vort max along the upper trough axis pushes through. Surface dew points are progged to be above freezing so we do not expect freezing temperatures except perhaps at the typical cold hollows.
A trough associated with a closed low pressure system centered just north of the Great Lakes region, will continue to slowly push a weak frontal boundary southeast into the forecast area. Otherwise, under partly cloudy skies, lows tonight will range from the middle 60s to lower 70 and highs Wednesday afternoon will range from the lower 80s to lower 90s.
Rain chances will diminish tonight as a cold front brings a return of drier air and continued cool temperatures to the Mid-South.
1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 (Rest of Today) Light showers are currently moving through northwest AL along and ahead of a cold front this morning. This activity should begin to wind down with the loss of daytime heating and as the cold front clears the area.
1056 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Weak ridging remains in the vicinity today, bringing similar conditions to yesterday. Most shower activity will be suppressed, but a few showers may still pop up across the higher elevations of the Wind River Range and southern Absarokas during peak heating, but will be very isolated in nature. Conditions begin to change on Wednesday as the next West Coast trough sweeps east across the northern Rockies. This trough will bring an increase in moisture across the state, with PW values approaching 0.
Wednesday a short wave trough to the west will push into the region.
Upper air analysis shows no height changes in our 18z sounding from 12z as ridging continues to sit over our area and the eastern Gulf of Mexico while Hurricane Lee lumbers west northwest at around 6 mph well east of the Bahamas. As hurricane Lee continues its jaunt through the western Atlantic, ridging in the Gulf will retreat towards the southwest loosening its grip on Keys' sensible weather. From synopsis, light to gentle generally north breezes will prevail through the end of this week due to influences from Hurricane Lee passing well to the east of the Bahamas and building high pressure later this week.
1211 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A broad upper level trough extending through the Central Plains is moving east. A cold front preceding the aforementioned trough is bisecting the Mid-South and resulting in post-frontal rain showers across the area. A cold front will move southeast across the Mid-South today with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected to form ahead of the front. High pressure will start to build into the region tonight bringing a period of mainly dry weather and below normal temperatures. Another cold front will move across the Mid-South over the weekend bringing another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A cold front with showers and thunderstorms will cross the central and eastern United States through Wednesday.
1018 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A mid-level trough will move east through the Great Lakes tonight, with a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. As the trough moves east, cooler temperatures and drier conditions are expected through the end of the week. Despite a few lingering showers along the cold front across northeast KY and south central OH, main forecast challenge overnight will be extent of fog development. The base of the mid level trof to pivot east-southeast through the southern Great Lakes.
933 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A trough will linger across the Great Lakes through mid-week. High pressure will then build into the region through the end of the week and into the start of the weekend. A low pressure system may move across the Great Lakes towards the end of the weekend. The cold front is progressing eastward across the area this afternoon, roughly drawn southwest to northeast along the I-71 corridor, extending northeast along the I-90 lakeshore.
(This evening through Wednesday) Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in the presence of analyzed 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE ahead of an incoming cold front. The front will get a more substantial push southeastward by late in the day Wednesday as the larger trough swings across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
PWB Rain chances will diminish tonight as a cold front brings a return of drier air and continued cool temperatures to the Mid-South.
Geelhart Key Points: * Cooler weather with temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of the year. A large, positively tilted upper trough is centered over the Midwest this afternoon. Lapse rates are already starting to steepen in the low levels, with our special 12.
Still to be determined is the potential for showers and storms to move off the terrain and into the lower valleys below. Overall though, the highest risk of heavy rain and potential flooding issues will remain across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, especially in the San Juan mountains, where moisture is deepest.
A cold front has passed southward today and is draped across southeastern portions of the area. A trough associated with a closed low pressure system centered just north of the Great Lakes region, will continue to slowly push a weak frontal boundary southeast into the forecast area. Otherwise, under partly cloudy skies, lows tonight will range from the middle 60s to lower 70 and highs Wednesday afternoon will range from the lower 80s to lower 90s.
620 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) We are seeing light showers ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Great weather is expected for tomorrow as upper level ridging begin to build into the area.
A cold front continues to push across central Indiana. Most areas will fall into the upper 40s tonight with far southern counties being slightly warmer in the low 50s. However, some guidance shows a subtle mid-level impulse associated with an upper trough across the Great Lakes Region moving through which may bring light precipitation to northwest portions of the area. NNW flow at around 5-10 mph and upper troughing will keep highs below normal.
750 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A mid-level trough will move east through the Great Lakes tonight, with a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. As the trough moves east, cooler temperatures and drier conditions are expected through the end of the week. A broad mid-level trough to settle southeast into the Great tonight. Behind the cold front, dry conditions are expected after midnight. The base of the mid level trof to pivot east-southeast through the southern Great Lakes.
Key Messages: *Cooler temperatures continue this week, coldest day on Fri.
Expect temperatures to eventually fall into the lower 60s late tonight, although saying this with less certainty now given the cloud cover.
The upper trough that ushered through a weak front that brought light precipitation to the coast and coastal ranges yesterday shifts east tonight. An upper ridge builds in quickly from the west late this evening with offshore flow increasing and spreading inland to the I-5 corridor by Wednesday morning as the thermal trough deepens along the southern Oregon coast.
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, cooler and drier air was gradually filtering into the region this afternoon.
609 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Rain chances will diminish tonight as a cold front brings a return of drier air and continued cool temperatures to the Mid-South.
628 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 (Tonight) A relatively benign night is expected across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with high pressure building across the area.
Quiet weather today and Wednesday as a short ridge moves overhead. Wednesday will be warmer with 850mb temperatures much warmer than today.
A trough of low pressure if forecast to swing across the area late on Wednesday bringing drying. High pressure ridge is forecast to build over the entire region through the weekend with warm, sunny, and dry conditions. Mid-level moisture in combination with weak instability, and weak lift from a passing low pressure trough, all of this combined is forecast to bring isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this evening. A slightly stronger low pressure trough is forecast move across the area late Wednesday with another round of showers and thunderstorms across mainly across the eastern half of Nevada.
A cold front will move through tonight, with gusty winds from the Baker Valley south and east toward Ontario. Dry cold front passage this evening will bring 20-30 kt gusts mainly north and west of KONO, and will clear out any smoke.
610 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Westerly flow aloft will continue over the short term with the upper level trough to our northeast and an upper level high to our southwest. Moisture advection will continue tomorrow allowing for cloud cover to stick around, therefore we can expect the cooler temperatures to continue in the 70s.
812 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A trough will linger across the Great Lakes through mid-week. High pressure will then build into the region through the end of the week and into the start of the weekend. A low pressure system may move across the Great Lakes towards the end of the weekend. Additional lake-enhanced showers may develop as a trough pushes southeast across the area overnight, so maintained PoPs with this update. The cold front is progressing eastward across the area this afternoon, roughly drawn southwest to northeast along the I-71 corridor, extending northeast along the I-90 lakeshore.
855 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 An approaching upper level trough and surface boundary will help focus some shower and storm activity across the area this evening. The trough will then linger Wednesday and provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms again.
507 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 (Tonight) Scattered showers will continue to move along and behind of a cold front tracking east across the local area this afternoon. Overnight lows will fall to the low to mid 60s across the area.
Thus we will maintain the low chance for showers later tonight, mainly for the lakeshore zones. which persist across the western zones into Wednesday morning as vort max along the upper trough axis pushes through. Surface dew points are progged to be above freezing so we do not expect freezing temperatures except perhaps at the typical cold hollows.
505 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2023 19Z analysis shows an upper ridge over the region.
409 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Key Messages: *Cooler temperatures continue this week, coldest day on Fri.
Lowered heights in the mid-levels across Florida were recorded this evening as the mean layer ridge that was centered over the area this morning has now shifted southwest away from the area. Most, if not all, of the activity will likely be confined to the Lower Keys. From synopsis, light to gentle generally north breezes will prevail through the end of this week due to influences from Hurricane Lee passing well to the east of the Bahamas and building high pressure later this week.
96 (This evening through Wednesday) Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in the presence of analyzed 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE ahead of an incoming cold front. The front will get a more substantial push southeastward by late in the day Wednesday as the larger trough swings across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
That said, the upstream broad western Great Lakes trough was generating some cu and light showers over northern Illinois could hinder fog potential overnight, so confidence is not high in fog or that overnight lows will reach the upper 40s. A cold front continues to push across central Indiana. Most areas will fall into the upper 40s tonight with far southern counties being slightly warmer in the low 50s. However, some guidance shows a subtle mid-level impulse associated with an upper trough across the Great Lakes Region moving through which may bring light precipitation to northwest portions of the area. NNW flow at around 5-10 mph and upper troughing will keep highs below normal.
A short wave trough embedded in the westerly flow will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the southern half of Colorado. The northern extend of convection looks to be over the higher terrain and just north of I-70. It will be another cool night, but not quite a cool as last night due to a slightly warmer airmass. A stronger trough will be moving south across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Precipitable water values climb to a half inch over the higher terrain and 0. This is good moisture for the higher terrain and just so-so for the plains. This moisture and CAPE up to 600 J/kg is expected to lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
(Today through Thursday) The persistent mid-level ridge remains anchored across northern Mexico through the short term, keeping well above normal temperatures in place today and Thursday.
At the surface, high pressure centered over northern MN was ridging into the southern plains. So with no obvious dynamics to induce vertical motion and surface ridging keeping moisture limited, precip chances remain close to nil. There is little change in the airmass from yesterday so think we will again see readings in the lower 80s region wide. Thursday looks to be a near repeat of today with mostly sunny conditions and highs in the lower 80s.