Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Wednesday) Key Message: Cold temperatures will continue today and into the overnight hours with sub freezing temperatures expected for most locations. Discussion: Currently the clouds are very slowly eroding across the area, and temperatures have risen back above freezing for most places outside of the higher elevations, and southwest Virginia. These clearer skies will help to drop temperatures near or below freezing once again overnight. Also with the clear skies we should see temperatures climb back up above freezing fairly quickly tomorrow, with daytime highs expected to be about 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
This will help to keep minimums up warmer than what we saw this morning. Most, if not all the area should remain above freezing tonight as the stiff southerly winds prevail through the overnight period.
352 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) A cold high pressure ridge centered over the upper MS river valley will push southeast over the next 24 to 36 hours. This ridge will become centered over TN/GA/AL Wed afternoon with dry conditions and clear skies continuing through the short term. This ridge will also bring in some cooler temps with lows Tonight and Wed night expected in the 20s ands 30s. The ridge will continue to move SE pushing off the GA/SC coast Thu morning, which will allow the next frontal system to move into the area going into the extended periods.
The cold front has moved into the Florida Straits with most of the region enjoying cooler and much drier air. Very dry air in the lower-levels of the atmosphere should preclude any measurable rainfall. The upper-level trough moves out by Wednesday night followed by mid-level ridging building in from the west.
(Wednesday through Tuesday) Warmer conditions expected on Wednesday with strong/gusty south winds developing.
818 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 After another cool night with temperatures below freezing, the rest of the week will be windy.
Clouds and snow chances will continue to diminish as high pressure advances into the region from the west.
The lower atmosphere remains very dry, so not expecting any measurable rainfall, but can't rule out a few sprinkles/very light showers Wednesday morning.
614 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 (Tonight) As high pressure continues to build in from our NW, the few clouds currently in place over the TN Valley are expected to clear out this evening-- allowing abundant radiational cooling to occur and temperatures to drop a couple of degrees lower than guidance.
All available MOS guidance is going on the higher side for measurable rainfall chances across the island chain (between 40-60%).
600 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Highs today are expected to be similar to yesterday as easterly surface flow ushers in some of the cooler air from the previous system. An approaching weak upper ridge currently over New Mexico will shift winds more southeasterly this evening and cloud cover will increase, resulting in warmer overnight temperatures in the 40s and 50s. As the ridge axis moves into Central Texas Wednesday afternoon, southerly surface flow increases and temperatures look to warm to the 70s and 80s by the afternoon.
Overnight lows are expected to fall into the upper 30s, but winds may result in a little warmer lows into the low 40s.
High pressure centered over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley will maintain a somewhat elevated northerly flow across central FL, with winds speeds around 5 to 10 mph continuing overnight. This will continue to transport cooler temperatures down the FL peninsula, with overnight lows below normal, ranging from the mid 40s NW of I-4 and in the upper 40s to low 50s farther south across the rest of the interior. These values are slightly above MOS guidance as mid to high level clouds will gradually increase across the area overnight, with the approach of a S/W trough aloft, and counteract some of this cold air advection. Passing S/W trough aloft may lead to some light precip from this cloud cover into tomorrow, but this may be more in the form of virga or sprinkles due to drier air in the lower levels.
The overnight hours is when we finally see activity pushing northward through the CWA as a wave of low pressure moves through. Beginning Sunday morning, low pressure at the sfc and upper levels is progged to be situated across ND and parts of northwest MN.
Ridging aloft will remain in control over the weekend. Warm and humid conditions are expected through the period, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s tonight and Saturday night; and highs in the mid 80s to near 100 during the day on Saturday.
Quasi-zonal flow will prevail on Sunday with low amplitude ridging in place. Highs will generally be in the lower to mid 60s.
A drier airmass in the lower levels will continue to keep things dry overnight. Moisture returning in the low levels will allow for scattered showers and isolated storms tomorrow. High temperatures tomorrow will generally be in the M80s to the west of I-95 with slightly warmer temperatures possible across the far interior. Onshore flow will keep temperatures along the coast cooler in the L80s.
The clear skies allow for increased insolation, leading to warmer temperatures and increased eastward propagation of the dry line. The high res models have the majority of the activity in our southeastern counties, but a few have some isolated storms developing in the Big Country early on the the systems development.
326 AM EDT Sat May 6 2023 High pressure will make for nice weather for much of this weekend until a fast moving weather system brings scattered showers to the region late Sunday afternoon and night.
Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure is pushing slowly east through extreme southwest Kansas. Unseasonably warm temperatures continue today as the aforementioned westerly downslope flow reinforces a warmer air mass stretched throughout the high plains of western Kansas.
214 AM EDT Sat May 6 2023 High pressure will make for nice weather for much of this weekend until a fast moving weather system brings scattered showers to the region late Sunday afternoon and night.
The normal temperatures for May 6 are typically in the lower 70s.
Otherwise, mid-level ridging will maintain warm, humid, breezy, and hazy conditions through Saturday night.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid level ridging in the process of expanding north into the Great Lakes early this morning. made to do so by digging western trough. Surge of warm and moist advection on the northern extent of this expanding ridging still kicking off some light showers, especially for areas north of the big bridge where low level jet forced convergence is maximized. Ridging will reach maturity across our area later today into early this evening, with ejection of subtle upstream wave expected to knock overhead heights down a touch by later tonight. Details: Expanding ridging should punt best isentropic ascent/deep layer moisture convergence north with time today, punting the best shower potential into Ontario and Lake Superior by this afternoon. Eastern upper and coastal areas of northeast lower Michigan will remain several degrees cooler.
This convection will be elevated north of the warm front.
1011 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 (Issued 940 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023) First round of showers are impacting southwest Wisconsin on the nose of the low level jet. Ahead of the low, a sly LLJ and warm, moist advection will aid in the pcpn development.
The surface features include a developing weak low over far SW KS that will lift a warm front and dryline combo into the evening, with a couple of sensible weather impacts, including the possible return of low stratus along the east overnight, and in the meantime, a short window of red flag criteria possibility in the extreme southwest behind the developing dryline. CAMS in our area develop isolated to widely scattered discrete convection in the differential heating and moisture zone/warm frontal area of west central Kansas. Overnight lows in the 40s out west will be courtesy of slightly drier air being drawn into western Kansas behind the low.
This will allow for a mid-level short wave over the Southern Gulf Coast States to move southeast around the mid-level ridge and through South Florida late this weekend. Lows each night will be in the mid to upper 60s, except in the lower to mid-70s metro areas.
315 AM EDT Sat May 6 2023 Upper air pattern consists of 500 mb troughs on both coasts and an elongated trough across the northern plains which bridges the gap between them. The pattern is blocky and a trough will remain over the northern plains this period with building heights over the upper Great Lakes by 00z Sun.
Lingering showers will continue to disintegrate across northern MO until dry weather settles in later this afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 70s. WAA will infiltrate the CWA Saturday morning, prompting a warm front to develop and lift northeast across Missouri late Saturday morning through the afternoon. Saturday's highs range between the lower 80s to lower 90s across the the region. Unfortunately, Sunday's highs will be just a touch warmer than Saturday's highs.
1207 AM CDT Sat May 6 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Increasing and deepening southwesterly flow across the forecast area downstream from a broad trough over the Great Basin should result in warm and quiet weather tonight and Saturday.
The upper level pattern will start off today with a ridge extending from the Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley. This ridge will maintain a capping inversion of warm air aloft that should largely inhibit the development of surface based convection today. However, subtle impulses in the flow over top the ridge may still touch off isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is low as to how this could play out, but one area to watch later this morning is across the lower Missouri Valley in the vicinity of St. From tonight through Sunday night, forecast models indicate the upper ridge should gradually flatten with time, which will allow a frontal boundary northwest of the region to slowly creep southeast.
Latest 1000-850H partial thickness values suggest max temperatures will climb into the lower 90s for Sat and possibly into the mid 90s for Sunday. Latest deterministic models suggest "hit or miss" evening and nighttime chances of showers/storms, with the most likely chance of seeing widespread showers/storms being Tue night and again on Thu night, as a cold front stalls over central KS, with chances in the warm sector south of the boundary. Breezy southeast winds will prevail tonight while wind direction gradually veers to the southwest across south central Kansas and more westerly over our central KS counties as an area of low pressure develops over north central KS early in the day. As this area of low pressure drifts northeast into NE, west to southwesterly winds will prevail through the afternoon becoming light and southerly on Sat evening.
1239 AM PDT Sat May 6 2023 A trough of low pressure will move eastward across Northern California today, resulting in a slight chance of precipitation from Fresno County northward.
A final day of unsettled weather expected as the trough of low pressure starts to retreat northeastward out of the region. Heights will rise in the wake of the aforementioned trough as it pushes northeastward.
A cool airmass tied to the much- talked-about West Coast trough is keeping most of our region 10 degrees below normal for this date. As the nearby trough breaks down and lifts off to the north and east, high pressure sets in for Arizona.
1150 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 Occasional high clouds will be all that affects Se Mi through the night and into Sat morning as the area remains under the influence of a mid level ridge axis. Today we are finishing up the transition out of the persistent trough that has plagued the region for the last couple weeks as ridging builds into the region. Interesting upper level pattern during this shift with the ridge pinching off the western portion of the trough over Ontario as that energy retrogrades all the way back into western Canada.
(Today) A mild start this morning with temperatures still in the lower to mid 70s across portions of eastern Oklahoma.
216 AM MDT Sat May 6 2023 The longwave trough that has been stalled across the PacNW will move little during the next several days, continuing the unsettled weather for western Wyoming. Sunday morning will start with the next lobe of the midlevel trough rotating into western WY. Temperatures are expected to be below freezing Sunday morning, so convective snow banding may set up off the Tetons and Salts/Wyomings briefly.
Temperatures south of the front were in the lower 70s, while areas under the clouds were only in the 50s. This quasi-stationary front is forecast to become a warm front and slowly lift north into central WI this evening, but likely not clear far northern WI until the pre-dawn hours.
107 AM EDT Sat May 6 2023 Mainly dry weather is expected through early Sunday as high pressure remains near the East Coast.
134 AM EDT Sat May 6 2023 Dry weather and warmer temperatures continue for the first half of the weekend.
On Sunday, there is a subtle weakening of the mid/upper ridge over the area. Max temps will again be near 90 inland, possibly a degree or two cooler than what we see today with a little more aft cloud cover.
Today looks drier across the area as the ridge builds in a little stronger, at least through the day.
Confidence is low on the sea breeze making it that far east due to the lower pwats and drier airmass in place. Highs for today will be in the low to mid 60s across SW GA, the mid 80s for SE AL, and the mid to upper 80s for most of our FL counties. Tonight, lows are expected to be in the low to mid 60s.
1155 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 Aviation --Mainly Dry through Saturday-- Height rises are shown through Saturday in response to a speed max moving into the base of the upper trough over the western U. The high temp fcst is tricky on Saturday given uncertainty in extent of cloud cover and mixing depth, with highs near 75 possible but near 70 the more likely scenario under considerable cloudiness. This sets off a round of elevated convection along and north of the incoming warm front, and ensembles have locked in on high probabilities of rain Sat night. The problem is that the low level jet is peeling away early Sunday and a low level west-northwest flow is developing in the wake of the departing convection.
224 AM EDT Sat May 6 2023 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will linger into Saturday before a warm front spreads clouds and chances for showers across the area. Clouds are expected to increase Saturday as a warm front moves into the region from the southwest.
Despite the instability there will be a steep low level inversion in place with the area north of the warm front so the elevated thunderstorms are not expected to be severe. In addition, some sunshine and the high sun angle could cause highs to soar Sunday afternoon. Highs on Sunday will be well above normal; ranging from the lower 70s across the north to the middle to upper 70s across central Wisconsin.
All moisture has been mixed out of the lower levels in the eastern Permian Basin and so any convection that develops this afternoon will be east of the CWA. Temperatures continue to gradually increase with highs expected in the low 90s this afternoon and tomorrow, above normal for this time of year but not terribly so.
1137 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 Attached to an area of low pressure over the Texas panhandle, a warm front is inching across central Mississippi this evening.
Erred on the warmer side of guidance for tonight with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Keep in mind, if drizzle and stratus linger longer, Saturday will remain cooler (and vice versa). Followed recent guidance to trend drier and warmer, resulting in highs ranging from near 70 degrees (southwest MN) to near 80 degrees (NE/SD border).
345 AM CDT Sat May 6 2023 Current surface analysis places low over western Kansas, with trough extending up along the lee of the Rockies, while high remains over northern Manitoba/northern Ontario. Upper level analysis places trough in the vicinity of the west coast, with a compact low noted over Southern Manitoba. Variety of short waves noted in the flow ahead of the aforementioned trough, with one resulting in some light showers over southwest North Dakota.
Otherwise, the moist airmass will remain in place over portions of the fa tonight with low temperatures ranging from the low/mid 50s NW/W to the mid 60s in SE parts of the fa.
Water vapour loop had upper low over eastern OR with several waves evident ahead of it from the four corners area into eastern WY.
This should keep rain chances at-bay with temperatures climbing into the low 80s for many.
Weather pattern remains about the same through the week as high pressure dominates. Placement of the high pressure just off the east coast will allow for an easterly flow to dominate. This patterns hold until the end of the week when a possible cold front makes its appearance and gives the weather a nudge out of the current loop it is stuck in. High pressure over the area will maintain the easterly breeze through most of the day, until the afternoon sea breeze develops.
(Today through Sunday) (Today through Sunday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley are expected to remain on the northwest periphery of 500 mb high pressure centered roughly over the Bay of Campeche during the period. Breezy surface winds from the southeast will may help to make highs feel a little cooler in shady areas.
As high pressure over the western Atlantic builds westward, surface flow across the area will attain more of a southeasterly component through the day today.
High temperatures this afternoon will reach into the mid to upper 80s for northeast Florida and in the lower 80s over southeast Georgia. (Saturday through Sunday night) Showers with a potential for thunderstorms for the beginning of the weekend as high pressure situated offshore to the east will allow for a moist east-southeasterly onshore flow to pass through over the forecast area on Saturday. High pressure ridging extending in from out of the northeast will serve to inhibit convective developments on Sunday.
Currently seeing some pockets of shower activity already across the area as some mid level convergence and upper troughing aid in lift across the region. To the north widespread showers and rain is expected with the highest amounts tied to the track of the upper low which most likely moves across eastern ND. As the upper low slowly lifts north into early Sunday there remains uncertainty on its evolution and when rain will end from south to north. Some guidance suggests the low stalls south of the international border bringing rain to the northern valley through Sunday night, while other guidance does lift it out of the FA. Upper level trough is off Oregon coast with various short waves progged to be moving northeast into the northern plains.
Wind conditions are expected to return once again this afternoon with a trough still in place over the Great Basin. Therefore, wind gusts for this afternoon should peak out at around 35-40 mph over and downwind of the high terrain and around 25-30 mph over the lower elevations. As the trough lifts, quasi-zonal flow sets in over Arizona for Sunday, slightly warmer temperatures and lighter (but still breezy) southwesterly winds in the afternoon.
655 AM EDT Sat May 6 2023 High pressure will make for nice weather for much of this weekend until a fast moving weather system brings scattered showers to the region late Sunday afternoon and night.
No major updates this morning except to the hourly temperature and dewpoint grids to allow them to align better with the observed trends with the slightly cooler start in some areas this morning. This will allow for a mid-level short wave over the Southern Gulf Coast States to move southeast around the mid-level ridge and through South Florida late this weekend. Lows each night will be in the mid to upper 60s, except in the lower to mid-70s metro areas.
High pressure over southeast Wyoming and Colorado this morning. Longwave trough remains to our west from western Montana to southern California. Begin to see some energy ejecting out of the western trough Sunday morning.
937 AM EDT Sat May 6 2023 High pressure will make for nice weather for much of this weekend until a fast moving weather system brings scattered showers to the region late Sunday afternoon and night.
Current cameras in these areas including Chemult show that the wet snow is melting on roads while they have warmer road surface temperatures. The area of low pressure has been tracking onto the coast overnight, leaving shower chances in the forecast for Saturday morning and afternoon. Once the upper trough moves eastward tonight, shower chances will decrease.
Although the highest chances of storms will be in the south, one interesting thing to notes is that a couple of the high- resolution models are showing is potential of strong winds emanating from the convection and spreading north this evening away from the thunderstorms. The high- resolution NAM is very bullish with this spreading areas of 45-60 knot gusts well into northern Oklahoma.
644 AM EDT Sat May 6 2023 Upper air pattern consists of 500 mb troughs on both coasts and an elongated trough across the northern plains which bridges the gap between them. The pattern is blocky and a trough will remain over the northern plains this period with building heights over the upper Great Lakes by 00z Sun.
Weather pattern remains about the same through the week as high pressure dominates. Placement of the high pressure just off the east coast will allow for an easterly flow to dominate. This patterns hold until the end of the week when a possible cold front makes its appearance and gives the weather a nudge out of the current loop it is stuck in.
555 AM CDT Sat May 6 2023 (Today) Cloud cover has filtered back into the region early this morning as a relatively diffuse warm front lifts back through the region and into portions of Tennessee by mid morning. This can be seen in our dewpoints which will increase from the mid/upper 50s into the low to mid 60s over the course of the day as southwesterly flow increases behind the warm front.
The highest rain chances today will be focused south of Interstate 4, especially this afternoon.
633 AM CDT Sat May 6 2023 (Today through Sunday) (Today through Sunday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley are expected to remain on the northwest periphery of 500 mb high pressure centered roughly over the Bay of Campeche during the period. Breezy surface winds from the southeast will may help to make highs feel a little cooler in shady areas.
515 AM MDT Sat May 6 2023 The longwave trough that has been stalled across the PacNW will move little during the next several days, continuing the unsettled weather for western Wyoming. Sunday morning will start with the next lobe of the midlevel trough rotating into western WY. Temperatures are expected to be below freezing Sunday morning, so convective snow banding may set up off the Tetons and Salts/Wyomings briefly.
643 AM CDT Sat May 6 2023 (Today) A mild start this morning with temperatures still in the lower to mid 70s across portions of eastern Oklahoma.
(Today) Cloud cover has filtered back into the region early this morning as a relatively diffuse warm front lifts back through the region and into portions of Tennessee by mid morning. This can be seen in our dewpoints which will increase from the mid/upper 50s into the low to mid 60s over the course of the day as southwesterly flow increases behind the warm front.