Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
139 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Drier, but cooler weather is anticipated today and Wednesday. Rain chances will increase late in the week as low pressure swings through. Weak ridging aloft will work to keep most of the region dry today. Showers will be associated with the upper low and may start to creep into the Ohio counties Wednesday afternoon.
1215 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure will build across the region tonight through the weekend. High pressure will continue to sit over the region for tonight and Tuesday. In addition, patchy fog is expected to develop in river valleys due to the warmer waters. By Tuesday, high pressure will center over Quebec. High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will be driving our weather pattern for the foreseeable future.
(Today and tonight) We will be situated between an upper level high to our southwest and an upper level low to our northeast. The high will have a stronger influence on our weather today, pushing our temperatures slightly above normal, into the low 90s, and lowering our rain chances for the day.
Today through Wednesday: A deep-layer cyclone analyzed along the MN-IA border early this morning will drift southeast today with an associated vorticity lobe pivoting through the western semi-circle of the parent system. A scenario similar to today could play out again Wednesday where the glancing influence of a perturbation rotating around the cyclone to our east generates clouds across northern and eastern portions of the area, and perhaps a sprinkle or two.
Expect similar high temps this afternoon, which would be a couple of degrees warmer than operational NBM numbers.
423 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure over Quebec will sag southwards across northern New England during the course of the week.
This will be driven by additional moisture convergence and some westward moving outflows across central sections along with lift from the general elongated trough over the area. With the forecast area located to the S of a weak surface boundary and the lower levels basically moist and showing very light winds, conditions will be favorable for some patchy fog.
229 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 The main concern this morning is for some patchy fog across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois; otherwise, today will start off dry as water vapor imagery shows a trough digging east of the Dakotas setting the stage for some rain chances.
147 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 (Through Tonight) High pressure will be east northeast of the region Tonight, with the flow around it allowing more moisture to stream into area. Lows in the lower 70s will be common.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today through Wednesday evening as an upper low moves through the region.
230 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Upper ridge axis was sitting right over south central Montana early this morning and will provide one last warm day. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s (around 15 degrees above seasonal averages) and this should be the last we see of these numbers in quite a while. The upper ridge gets nudged east this afternoon as a broad upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. The ridge moving east will cause a cold front to slide through the forecast area this evening. The cold front will be too dry to initiate any showers, but will be strong enough to cause highs on Wednesday to be 10-15 degrees cooler. A secondary cold front will move across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.
1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Washed out cold front and thunderstorms outflow boundaries will continue to bring a slight chance of shower and thunderstorms this evening, along and south of the I-10 corridor from Iraan to Ozona to Sonora to Ozona. Lows tonight will be slightly cooler, in the mid and upper 60s. It will remain warm Tuesday with highs in the lower 90s.
248 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Strong high pressure, centered over eastern Canada will build down the eastern seaboard through the work week. Mostly overcast and much cooler today. As a strong high pressure builds from eastern Canada southward across NC today, CAA from the NE and plenty of low stratus and stratocumulus will lead to much cooler temperatures.
An upper low over the northern Plains will dig SE into IA/IL by this afternoon. Winds aloft will begin to veer to the WSW and moisture will gradually begin to filter back into the area today as seen by dewpoints creeping back into the low to mid 60s. With some breaks in the clouds, we may end up getting more sunshine and potentially a couple degrees warmer than previously thought as highs may climb into the upper 80s to the lower 90s in a few spots.
Sfc ridging will build over the area, sky conditions will clear and winds will become nearly calm tonight. H500 cyclone over Minnesota will attempt to push south over the next day or two but persistent ridging across the SW US will steer this feature toward the Ohio Valley.
Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing deep tropical moisture from the western Caribbean spreading north across the Florida Peninsula associated with an upper level low centered just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface, a weak trough positioned across the central Gulf of Mexico today will gradually slide west through the rest of the week as surface ridging builds in north of Florida.
342 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure will remain in place across southern Canada through the end of the week, leading to continued onshore flow locally. This area of high pressure will start to break down and shift southward heading into this weekend as ridging builds to our west over the Ohio Valley. A strong area of high pressure will remain in place today over southern Canada, while a weak area of low pressure resides off the Mid- Atlantic Coast.
The only show in town then becomes the closed low hanging back across Iowa. Models show that cyclonic influence of the upper level low will become more prevalent across the northern and central Great Lakes.
159 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Upper ridge axis was sitting right over south central Montana early this morning and will provide one last warm day. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s (around 15 degrees above seasonal averages) and this should be the last we see of these numbers in quite a while. The upper ridge gets nudged east this afternoon as a broad upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. The ridge moving east will cause a cold front to slide through the forecast area this evening. The cold front will be too dry to initiate any showers, but will be strong enough to cause highs on Wednesday to be 10-15 degrees cooler. A secondary cold front will move across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Isentropic ascent across the northwestern half of Lower MI is strongly inferred given pronounced veering flow in the lower troposphere per the DTX/APX 88D VWPs.
Today marks the beginning of a pattern change that will bring several days of precipitation and a much cooler temperature trend through this coming weekend. Temperatures will be cooling as well, with conditions feeling chilly in the valleys as temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s, which is about 5 to 8 degrees cooler than average.
TFJ Upper ridge will continue sliding east across Montana tonight and Tuesday, while a deep low spins slowly toward the coast of British Columbia. Warm and dry weather continue on Tuesday with a strengthening lee trof. Tightening pressure gradient will fuel the low level jet over eastern Montana for increasing winds. Current models suggest that the strongest winds will be over the higher terrain areas north of Highway 2, with a weaker pressure gradient over Fort Peck Lake but winds should be close enough to criteria to issue a Lake Wind Advisory. The lee trof will move across eastern Montana Tuesday night as a cold front. This will bring to an end the warmer weather, with temperatures dropping back to near normal for late September.
1126 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2023 An upper low spins over MN, while another one sits off the Pac NW. Upper ridging between the two lows will keep weather mild and dry through much of this week. Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s, which is near to above average (average highs for this time of year are in the low to mid 70s).
Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will persist for most of the week. Gusty winds and cooler temperatures this upcoming weekend. Satellite imagery this morning showing scattered high clouds moving across the area under flat ridging aloft. Amplifying ridge aloft responsible for the unseasonably warm later September highs. After Wednesday, a cooling tend starts with high temperatures returning to near normal values over the weekend as a strong upper level trough moves into the western CONUS.
Temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 80s across the area under mostly sunny skies. An upper level low will start to move southeast out of Minnesota and across Iowa Tuesday. Highs ahead of the upper level low will warm into the low to mid 80s with some upper 80s possible across portions of the area. Upper level energy will move through around the upper level low Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and provide better lift. Highs Wednesday afternoon should be in the lower to middle 80s again with clearing skies.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered just off the coast of Baja del Sur, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under northwest flow aloft. Easterly flow will keep a lid on temperatures today, similar to yesterday, if not a degree or two cooler in the south. Wednesday, thicknesses increase, adding 2-3F to afternoon highs, around 7-9F above normal, w/most locations in the lower 90s.
Main challenge for the short term will be the timing and how far south the backdoor cold front will enter into the CWA Wednesday. Weak ridging will continue through Tuesday allowing for above normal temperatures across the CWA with the expected sunny skies. By Tuesday night, an upper level low will push into the Upper Mississippi Valley pushing a backdoor front into the northern portions of Kansas. Leaned toward the drier solution and kept temperatures up however, if the ECMWF/NAM solutions verify, could see temperatures Wednesday a little cooler than current forecast.
Expect a gradual drying trend from this afternoon through tonight as high pressure channels drier air into the area from the northeast. Latest guidance supports a gradual trend toward drier/brighter weather on Wednesday, as expansive high pressure over Quebec nudges south. Look for conditions to deteriorate through late week in CAD type pattern with renewed cloud cover and rain chances associated with approaching upper level trough from the west and deepening moist easterly/upslope flow from the Atlantic. By late week the focus shifts to an upstream trough over the Grt Lks.
There will be some motion to the south, so the highest chances will remain there.
Overall, CAMs and broader resolution guidance do agree on the lower rain chances the further north and west you go, so that is reflected in the forecast through tonight.
(Today through Wednesday night) High pressure is continuing to shift to the east today which will bring a return flow of moisture across the panhandles. Further enhancement for the rain showers and thunderstorms can occur with the passage of a embedded short wave trough. The SW to W portions have the highest odds of seeing convection but this is still <20% chance while northern and eastern panhandles have <10% chance. The eastward push of the ridge will also bring gusty winds across the panhandles for both today and Wednesday. The building ridge will also continue a weak warming trend which will see highs mostly in the 80s today increase to mostly low 90s for Wednesday.
Upper pattern this morning features ridging through the central and southern plains with an upper level low currently over NE Iowa. Low will attempt to drop southward through the period but will make minimal progress as aforementioned ridges strengthens, shunting if off to the northeast of the area. Feature may result in some cloud cover over the north but that should be about it as upper ridging will become the dominant feature by the conclusion of the period. With ridge building over the area, temperatures will remain on the warmer side, topping out above seasonal averages. Highs today will reach the mid 80s to lower 90s and just a tad warmer on Wednesday.
(Today and tonight) Water Vapor imagery currently shows an upper level low over the upper Midwest and an upper level high over the Baja Peninsula, influencing northwest flow aloft over the region. Additionally, a theta-e ridge axis extends from central Mexico to the northern TX Panhandle, this in combination with upslope flow will help initiate thunderstorm development over eastern New Mexico this afternoon.
Closed upper low currently over MN/Iowa will slowly drift southeast to western Illinois over the next 24 hours. A 70 kt H3 jet streak will rotate around the southwest periphery of the low, moving across the CWA today into tonight.
Pattern shift is underway as the low pressure system moves on shore in the Pacific Northwest. A weak cold front, currently over central Oregon at 02z, will continue eastward overnight reaching southeast Oregon around 10z and Southwest Idaho around 15z Tuesday.
An upper low currently in the western Great Lakes vicinity continues to slowly slide southward and will work to develop additional troughing across the Southeast today. Temperatures this afternoon will climb into the low to mid 80s with upper 70s across far NE GA. Given the presence of cloud cover, temperatures tonight will remain mild (lows in the 60s) and 'cooler' on Wednesday (highs in the 70s).
Otherwise, no significant sensible weather changes are expected today as the Southern Plains remains under the influence of a mid/upper-level ridge axis across the southwest U. The eastern periphery of the attendant low-level thermal ridge will impinge on Southern Plains, resulting in very warm temperatures once again (upper 80s to mid 90s deg F) with abundant sunshine.
1131 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 The short term period begins with a developing rex block over the Midwest as an upper level trough begins to move into the region. Through the night, the mid-level trough over MN continues its journey southeast as the blocking begins to strengthen. Current guidance is in good agreement that the next round of precipitation will occur as this trough begins to swing through the area Tuesday evening. As the day progresses, this region of favorable ascent/convergence moves east as the larger trough to the north swings east through N IL/IN.
310 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 An upper low that has been supporting overnight convection over the upper Midwest will slide southeastward from Iowa to Illinois during the Short Term. Though the bulk of the day today will be dry with partly cloudy skies, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in southern Indiana late this afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes and the upper low approaches. Temperature-wise, went on the warm side again with lows generally around the lower 60s. - High pressure to bring more unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions.
Improveming depth to the low level moisture will translate into renewed reduction of cloud base late tonight and especially early Tuesday.
Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning is showing the near- stationary upper low beginning to move south into the Mississippi river valley, mid-level ridging over the Rockies, and a large storm system impacting the western coast of the Canada. Surface ridging has kept clear skies and dry air across the area leading to minimal chances for precipitation.
145 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 An amplified ridge axis was splitting the CWA on the latest H500 hand analysis map. squeezed between an upstream block and digging EPac trough. The latest iteration shows some afternoon CAPE again but much less than yesterday so will again push my luck and go with a dry forecast and more popping afternoon CU on the ridges. High latitude energy dropping into the western trough will begin to dig this feature farther into the Western States on Wednesday. pushing the ridge out onto the Plains and begin to introduce breezy conditions to our western CWA by the afternoon. A lobe of energy will dropping through the base of the Western States trough will nudge the ridge over our area to the East while it digs the trough southward.
Otherwise, all models continue to show a ridge of high pressure aloft translating eastward into the Front Range today and tonight. This ridge axis is then expected to amplify northward late tonight and stall briefly before moving out into the Great Plains on Wednesday. Warming trend will continue with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s west of I-25 and low to mid 80s east of I-25! Overnight lows will still be noticeably cooler compared to 30 days ago, but typical for this time of the year. High resolution guidance is starting to show some fog and low visibility across the ridges and lower valleys. This makes sense given the low level surface winds are forecast to back into the south or southeast ahead of the next Pacific system moving across the Pacific Northwest.
Latest KGRB radar images would suggest this is becoming a reality as the rain is rotating around an upper low that is passing to the south of the area. Based on the events of the last few days, would not be surprised if portions of western Waushara County see close to 2 inches due to the way the rain is rotating around the upper low. An upper level disturbance will bring another chance of showers and a few storms tonight,thus the highest chances of rain across northeast Wisconsin may occur tonight with this feature. The upper low will continue to move away on Wednesday, although there is a still a lingering chance of showers.
Cooler than normal temperatures will continue especially over the mountains with temperatures 5 to 8 degrees below normal today.
258 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 An upper level low pressure system, currently near the Twin Cities, continues to influence the region, bringing low clouds and fog to the CWA early this morning. Southeasterly winds should spread across the CWA on Wednesday, bringing slightly warmer temperatures, and hopefully some sunshine by the afternoon hours. Long range pattern dominated by a deepening western CONUS trough. Through the next few days we will see ridging become more pronounced as the trough over the western CONUS deepens, resulting in a persistent push of milder air through just about till the end of the extended range.
The impacts will be increased winds and cooler temperatures, along with an increase in cloud cover come Wednesday.
Dry conditions will continue through the week though temperatures will begin a slow decline through the latter half of the week as high pressure slowly pushes farther east. Active weather including a mix of rain and snow along with much cooler temperatures is expected for the weekend. The main synoptic features influencing the weather across northern and central Nevada through the short term will be a ridge sprawled across northwestern Mexico with a deep upper trough just off shore of southwest Canada. Model simulations continue to show the upper trough trying to sag southward.
Water vapor imagery shows a cut-off low over southeast MN with an upper ridge over the Rockies and the next storm system entering the Pacific northwest. The upper level low is expected to slowly dive southeast into eastern Iowa during the day today, with upper level jet streak on the southwest side of the low.
Today Currently early this morning, a closed low is located to our northwest with an 80-kt upper jet streak to our east. Subsidence enhanced by high pressure and upper convergence has allowed for patchy fog development again this morning, especially in northeastern areas where less high clouds were present overnight. Tonight For the overnight period, some height falls are indicated as the closed low moves further east towards Lake Michigan.
If SBCAPE values on the higher end of the possible range are realized, this would support an isolated severe thunderstorm threat. As the low-level jet winds down early tomorrow morning, rain chances will begin to decrease. Tomorrow, as the cutoff slowly continues southeastward into the Ohio Valley, it will continue to support the low chance (20-40%) for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over southwestern Illinois. Weak northerly to northwesterly flow behind the departing cutoff will support cooler air advecting into the CWA. Elmore While there is some variability among ensemble clusters in the extended range concerning the upper-level pattern, each cluster shows some degree of ridging over the Midwest. The placement of the ridge is not favorable for rain chances, with 10% or less of global ensemble members showing measurable rainfall during this stretch.
Upper level ridging will build over the Rockies today then slide into the High Plains tomorrow. Meanwhile an upper level low will be spinning over the Great Lakes region throughout the short term forecast. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the upper 80s to low 90s with lows tonight ranging from the low 50s across west central Kansas to around 60 degrees across south central Kansas.
1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 (Through Tuesday) Amplified mid to upper level ridging is positioned over the Four Corners States that extends northward to over Southern Wyoming while an upper low spins over Minnesota. Closer to home, a broad weakness aloft prevails with a trough identified on multichannel water vapor imagery extending from over Central Mississippi northeast to over Eastern Tennessee. This boundary likely has helped facilitate the low- level convergence for persistent showers across our southwest counties this morning. Lows will range from the upper 50s in the higher elevations east and northeast to readings in the upper 60s south and southwest. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s in the higher elevations east to readings in the upper 80s west and southwest.
102 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Drier, but cooler weather is anticipated today and Wednesday. Rain chances will increase late in the week as low pressure swings through. Weak ridging aloft will work to keep most of the region dry today. Showers will be associated with the upper low and may start to creep into the Ohio counties Wednesday afternoon.
This will occur in response to the upper low moving toward ne IA, but also the veering of 925 MB flow to southerly with an increase in warm, moist advection. The upper low will slowly move across ern IA to wrn IL into Tue evening with arcing bands of mdt to heavy rain showers and isold to sct storms. Gehring (Issued 249 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023) Tonight through Tuesday night: Still expecting rounds of showers to continue through Tuesday, as low pressure moves slowly by just to the southwest. Plenty of forcing between a slow moving vort max with the upper low and persistent warm air advection aloft. Highest rainfall totals are expected to be across roughly the southwest half of the forecast area towards the low and better forcing.
That would place our southern two-thirds in the lower 90s for afternoon highs with the northern third in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees as mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies prevail. /19/ (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) As the sun sets on midweek, our pattern aloft will continue to transistion from NW flow troughing, as the parent low in the OH River valley moves eastward, thus opening the door for rising heights of the core upper high over the Baja. Meanwhile, a deepening longwave over the Pacific NW will be the truer reason for the upper ridging over the four corners shifting in over the MS River valley, with the Baja 593dam upper core standing pat over the Sea of Cortez and the Baja region.
358 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Drier, but cooler weather is anticipated today and Wednesday. Rain chances will increase late in the week as low pressure swings through. Weak ridging aloft will work to keep most of the region dry today. Showers will be associated with the upper low and may start to creep into the Ohio counties Wednesday afternoon.