Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Stronger low-level warm advection will result in a warmer afternoon with a bit more day over day instability perhaps closer to 2000j/kg of mlcape. The challenge is how far west across the area as slightly warmer temperatures aloft west of the I-135 may limit or cap convective development given the weak forcing. The western upper ridge will begin to slide eastward closer to the Plains on Monday with greater low and mid-tropospheric warming.
High pressure is entrenched over the area behind the front that gave us all the flooding and severe weather earlier this week. Further east, as of 9 AM, temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s. This should keep highs from climbing back into the lower 90s in NW AL, but they should still make it into the mid to upper 80.
300 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 (Issued 300 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023) Tonight through Monday night: Some showers and thunderstorms are developing off of the 925mb trough axis and ahead of a water vapor axis this afternoon toward Green Bay. We'll have another trough axis along with some positive vorticity advection move through Monday evening through the overnight which may spark off some showers and storms though there are signs that precipitation could split around the area allowing us to stay dry. Monday will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the mid to upper 80s across much of the area.
159 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 High pressure will build over the area then slide off the coast during today. An upper trough will then approach and swing into and across the region late this afternoon through Monday night, triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms.
With light winds and clear skies, temperatures should fall into the lower to mid 60s overnight.
(This evening through Monday) A 597 dam upper level high, positioned over the Four Corners, will continue to support northerly flow aloft for West Texas. With height increases expected across the CWA given the eastward shift in the center of the high, warmer temperatures are expected this afternoon into overnight. Lows are projected to be slightly warmer than previous nights in the low to mid 70s.
Tonight, upstream storms rotating over the ridge may survive the trek southeast and enter the area late as a low level jet tries to develop.
254 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Tonight and Monday: Longwave trough axis is progged to remain stalled across the region through Monday. This is in response to amplified upper ridge over the Four Corners & strengthening subtropical Atlantic ridge. With subtle WAA in the low-levels, expect highs to moderate closer to seasonable values in the low-mid 90s & heat indices peak near mid 90s.
156 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Above-normal temperatures will continue through the week as high pressure persists across the southwestern US. This will keep strong ridging across the area for the most part, though with enough moisture and divergence aloft for daily convection chances. That said, clouds across central portions of the area have kept temperatures cooler than earlier forecast, so will likely adjust highs down for some locations for this afternoon. Similar conditions are expected on Monday, though compression of the ridge will bring slightly more widespread rain chances. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through the week as ridging keeps warm temperatures and daily convection chances across the area. Humidity will bottom out in the low 20s to mid teens for most locations, with temperatures generally peaking in the 90s.
It will be continued windy Monday night in the higher elevations of northwest Montana.
357 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Expansive ridge anchored over the desert Southwest builds today and into Monday with most NWP solutions suggesting a 500 mb geopotential height max of 600 dam near the NM/CO border. Meanwhile, downstream longwave trough occupying the eastern half of CONUS will undergo amplitude adjustments over the next 48 hours. Most of the showers/storms should dissipate before 10 PM with stabilization of the column as winds back toward the northwest along the anticyclonically sheared side of the departing trough. Slightly warmer mid-levels Monday afternoon with weak height perturbations could still touch off a few isolated to scattered showers, but confidence has decreased in the overall diurnal response.
1044 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Warmer and more humid today with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Beyond about 3-4 hours out, it's tough to say what will happen with these storms, but slight chance PoPs have been maintained across our southeastern two thirds of the CWA through the afternoon to account for storm potential which would have little reason to diminish until the trough axis swings through to bring synoptic-scale forcing for descent late afternoon. Prolonged Heat Spell: A seasonably strong 500-mb heat ridge, currently centered over the Four Corners region, seems poised to expand eastward this week as upper-level troughing carves into British Columbia/PNW.
138 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2023 A large area of high pressure over the southwestern U. Hot weather will continue for much of the week across inland areas, though some slight relief may arrive by the end of the week as a trough enters the Pacific Northwest. Tomorrow should be clearer, providing a better setup for monsoonal convection to form over the mountains and deserts; HRRR/WRF models pointing to best chance along the spine of the SD/RIV county mts up into the high desert.
As the upper ridge builds, temperatures continue to gradually increase with upper 90s and triple digits expected tomorrow (and lows in the lower 70s tonight).
(This evening through Monday Night) High pressure will make for another mid summer night's dream as the promised break from the excessive heat of late lingers into the new work week. Air temperatures are currently rising into the lower 90s for much of the area and will top out in the next couple of hours. This fresh Canadian high pressure will slide to the south and east over the next day or so and the warming trend will continue into midweek, getting us right back to hot with well above average readings.
Otherwise, another hot day is in store with triple-digits highly likely (80-90% chance) over the Treasure and Magic Valleys and over the lowlands of southeastern Oregon.
1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge centered near the Four Corners will begin to nudge eastward into west Texas today. Temperatures this afternoon will be several degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday in the wake of the cold front.
1256 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Weak high pressure will give way to a weak southerly flow of slightly more humid air for Monday. Significant height rises aloft and a low amplitude upper level ridge will likely develop over the region later in the upcoming week.
Temperatures range from the lower to mid 90s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Deep mean layer ridging remains in place across the far eastern Atlantic with this ridge extending westward into the Florida Keys. Therefore, expect mostly clear conditions tonight with lows in the lower 80s with some of the bigger islands of the Lower Keys able to radiate perhaps into the upper 70s.
1236 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) Sfc ridging will remain in place across much of the area through the period while H500 ridging across the Four Corners begins to build east by Monday.
Low pressure moves along a front across the eastern Carolinas Monday.
1038 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 A long wave trough will remain set up over the east today with some short waves embed in it. Also as we head into the afternoon we should mix down some drier air and our dew points should fall into the low to mid 60s. The long fetch trough over the east will be shoved eastward by the strengthening high over the four corners. The high will be a bit closer to the area tomorrow so no precipitation is expected. Northerly winds today will keep the RH on the lower side. (Monday Night through next Sunday) The ridge builds through most of the work week and with southerly flow the RH values will rise and it will become more sticky.
Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: Upper level ridging will be the primary driver through the start of the week bringing well above normal temperatures to the region.
140 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 The region sits just west of the axis of broad troughing that covers most of the midwest this afternoon. Temps should climb into the lower 90s.
Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s with heat indices of 90-100F across the area.
1153 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 A ridge of high pressure will slide east across the region later today, before settling south toward the Delmarva region by tonight. Significant height rises aloft and a low amplitude upper level ridge will likely develop over the region later in the upcoming week.
Moderate theta-e and moisture advection in the low to mid-levels is expected to initiate an area of thunderstorms along and near the Missouri River valley.
Cloudy and stormy northern half of CWA today and hot, humid and rain free southern half this afternoon, as the upper longwave trough from the Great Lakes into the Central Gulf Coast. By mid week, the upper troughing aloft weakens and flattens as weak ridging builds back into the region from the south and east. Weak high pressure will hold over the Florida Straits as a weak frontal boundary remains stalled over the Deep South keeping a moderate gradient and SW flow over the Eastern Gulf waters through Monday. Weak high pressure will remain over the region through the week keeping summertime heat and high humidity in place.
1153 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Moisture continues to rotate around the center of high pressure anchored over the region this morning. Circulation of the high is pulling what moisture it can into the Great Basin with a little help from the Pacific. A few showers can be seen on satellite across northern Utah with some clouds spilling over the front of the ridge into the Uintah Basin this morning. Satellite water vapor is showing sharp contrast in the low level moisture north of a line from the Four Corners to southeast Wyoming. The ridge will build east today and thus improve moisture supplies over the West Slope by midday Sunday.
206 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Weak low pressure will lift across the area tonight, with a front remaining stalled near the area through early week. High pressure establishes itself over the region by mid to late week. Should be near or a few deg cooler than climo with widespread cloud cover early, becoming more broken during the afternoon.
A warm front was pushing through southwest North Dakota, with a weak a cold front dropping south from Canada, into the far northern tier counties. Although chances look slim, with the very warm temperatures and a weak wave working its way through the mean upper ridge, a stray thunderstorm can not be completely ruled out.
1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 A long wave trough will remain set up over the east today with some short waves embed in it. Also as we head into the afternoon we should mix down some drier air and our dew points should fall into the low to mid 60s. The long fetch trough over the east will be shoved eastward by the strengthening high over the four corners. The high will be a bit closer to the area tomorrow so no precipitation is expected. Northerly winds today will keep the RH on the lower side. (Monday Night through next Sunday) The ridge builds through most of the work week and with southerly flow the RH values will rise and it will become more sticky.
Clear skies tonight will again allow for temperatures to fall into the low/mid 70s, but southeast winds will return and moisture will slowly creep upward through Monday. The heat returns to start the week as our mid level ridge will start to shift back over North Texas on Monday. A high pressure dome currently centered around the Four Corners region will slowly shift eastward through the next few days.
Just scattered cumulus are present over the region, save for a bit more over the ridges. Marginally higher PoPs still look appropriate to the east of Pittsburgh, east of the trough axis.
133 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Cooler, but still hot and dry today with widespread Moderate HeatRisk. Current temperatures are trending approximately 5 to 10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday afternoon, valid at 115 PM PDT. Even though temperatures are slightly cooler today, conditions are still hot with widespread Moderate HeatRisk. The upper level ridge will continue to shift eastward this week as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest.
With the weak upper level trough moving through today this will create increased instability with 0-3km MUCAPE values around 1200 to 1800 J/kg, dew points in the lower 60s, 0-6km Bulk Shear values near 20 kts, and mid level lapse rates around 6 deg C/km this afternoon. Highs today in the low to mid 80s. Lows will drop to the lower 60s across the area. This week we will see an uptrend in temperatures and periods of instability showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon time periods as weak disturbances move southeastward into the region on the eastern periphery of the broad ridging that is building eastward over the central CONUS.
1251 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Weak high pressure will give way to a weak southerly flow of slightly more humid air for Monday. Significant height rises aloft and a low amplitude upper level ridge will likely develop over the region later in the upcoming week.
317 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 A weak cold front approaches from the west on Monday and brings the chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms especially across New Hampshire.
925 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2023 High pressure aloft over desert southwest will bring warm and muggy conditions with a chance for monsoon thunderstorms into Southern California through Monday with occasional high clouds. San Diego County may be able to clear out a bit later this afternoon, where storms have the highest likelihood to form, though may be delayed into the early evening hours. Another slight chance of thunderstorms along the mountains into parts of the desert on Monday, will lead to a drying trend for the middle of the week as the large area of high pressure over the Four Corners drifts further east into New Mexico. A trough coming into the Pacific Northwest may be able have some influence over weather by late in the week, where slightly cooler conditions may occur.
1101 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023 07z surface analysis had low over eastern MT with trough into central WY and northeast SD. Upper ridge over the southwest CONUS the main concern this forecast. Today/tonight, upper ridge continues to build into CWA with slowly rising heights. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer than yesterday per 800-600mb warm air advection.
Warm temperatures return for Monday with highs topping out in the lower to middle 90's. Perhaps a pleasant change of pace will be heat indices remaining low in the lower to middle 90's thanks to the much drier air working into the area.
1210 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 (Today through Monday afternoon) Upper level ridge expands and shifts slightly eastward from its position over the Four Corners today. Lows on Monday morning will be in the low to mid 70s for most with spots in the higher elevations dipping into the 60s. With a strengthening ridge, temperatures will trend slightly warmer for Monday afternoon with most areas in the low 100s and the higher elevations topping out in the mid to upper 90s.
Clear skies tonight will again allow for temperatures to fall into the low/mid 70s, but southeast winds will return and moisture will slowly creep upward through Monday. The heat returns to start the week as our mid level ridge will start to shift back over North Texas on Monday.
(This afternoon through Monday night) A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing this afternoon in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River. High pressure over New Mexico starts sagging southeast and exerting a greater influence beginning tomorrow causing highs in many locations to increase back above 100 degrees.
601 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing this afternoon in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River. High pressure over New Mexico starts sagging southeast and exerting a greater influence beginning tomorrow causing highs in many locations to increase back above 100 degrees.
Falling heights associated with upper troughing over the NERN PAC will aid in keeping interior valley temperatures at to below normal (80s to low 90s) during the upcoming work week. In addition, monsoon moisture spreading north around a Four Corners upper-level anticyclone will be shunted east of the region due to the influence of the NERN PAC trough. A low pressure system moving south and east from the Gulf of Alaska will continue to disrupt the high pressure pattern of strong northerlies in the coastal zones into the new week. Northerly winds and steep seas are expected to ramp up yet again toward the end of the week as the Pacific High builds back in behind the low pressure system.
Weak high pressure will hold over the Florida Straits as a weak frontal boundary remains stalled over the Deep South keeping a moderate gradient and SW flow over the Eastern Gulf waters through Monday. Weak high pressure will remain over the region through the week keeping summertime heat and high humidity in place.
Halbach (Issued 300 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023) Tonight through Monday night: Some showers and thunderstorms are developing off of the 925mb trough axis and ahead of a water vapor axis this afternoon toward Green Bay. We'll have another trough axis along with some positive vorticity advection move through Monday evening through the overnight which may spark off some showers and storms though there are signs that precipitation could split around the area allowing us to stay dry. Monday will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the mid to upper 80s across much of the area.
610 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 (This evening through Monday) A 597 dam upper level high, positioned over the Four Corners, will continue to support northerly flow aloft for West Texas. With height increases expected across the CWA given the eastward shift in the center of the high, warmer temperatures are expected this afternoon into overnight. Lows are projected to be slightly warmer than previous nights in the low to mid 70s.
While low humidity and slightly cooler post-frontal air has kept the entire region below Heat Advisory criteria today, this may change tomorrow as temperatures likely climb to 103 or higher across western portions of the forecast area, and a small Heat Advisory may need to be reintroduced with subsequent forecast issuances. Clear skies tonight will again allow for temperatures to fall into the low/mid 70s, but southeast winds will return and moisture will slowly creep upward through Monday. The heat returns to start the week as our mid level ridge will start to shift back over North Texas on Monday.
722 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Key Message: Cold temperatures will continue today and into the overnight hours with sub freezing temperatures expected for most locations. Discussion: Currently the clouds are very slowly eroding across the area, and temperatures have risen back above freezing for most places outside of the higher elevations, and southwest Virginia. These clearer skies will help to drop temperatures near or below freezing once again overnight. Also with the clear skies we should see temperatures climb back up above freezing fairly quickly tomorrow, with daytime highs expected to be about 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
726 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023 Stretch of benign weather this taf period as high pressure tracking across the Ohio valley maintains influence. Another quiet day is then on tap for Wednesday as the ridge axis shifts into the Great Lakes.
A low pressure system is moving slowly over the region, bringing widespread rain, gusty winds, and snow to many locations. As this system passes overnight, an associated cold front will move through the area, lowering temperatures and bringing widespread gusty winds through tomorrow afternoon. The highest winds will mainly be in the Snake River Valley, Southwest Highlands, and Owyhee Mountains with gusts to 40-50 mph. Dry and slightly warmer weather is still expected by late Wednesday due to an incoming ridge of high pressure. Surface winds: S-E 15-25 kt with gusts to 40kt to start tonight, shifting to westerly after midnight behind a cold front.
Temperatures will drop below freezing (20s area wide) overnight, and a Freeze Warning will be in effect from 9PM EDT Tues through 11AM EDT Wed. (This evening through Wednesday) Key Message: Cold temperatures will continue today and into the overnight hours with sub freezing temperatures expected for most locations. Discussion: Currently the clouds are very slowly eroding across the area, and temperatures have risen back above freezing for most places outside of the higher elevations, and southwest Virginia. These clearer skies will help to drop temperatures near or below freezing once again overnight. Also with the clear skies we should see temperatures climb back up above freezing fairly quickly tomorrow, with daytime highs expected to be about 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
Therefore lows should easily drop into the low to mid 20s areawide, although it will be slightly warmer in the Nashville UHI. Went on the low side of guidance for overnight lows. A brief warmup starts tomorrow with afternoon highs in the lower 50s plateau to the mid 50s elsewhere. There will be some higher elevation and sheltered locations that will get to freezing or just below.
616 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 Current water vapor imagery shows northwesterly flow over the Middle Mississippi Valley, with surface observations showing an area of high pressure centered nearly directly over the CWA. This evening into the overnight hours, the area of high pressure will shift eastward, returning southerly flow to the area as upper- level ridging builds into the region. Tomorrow, warm air will begin advecting into the CWA with the southerly flow, with temperatures during the afternoon expected to peak roughly 20 degrees warmer than what will be experienced today.
High pressure to the north has been inducing a breezy easterly flow across the area bringing, but this high will shift towards Appalachia tomorrow bringing a more southeasterly to southerly flow into the area into tomorrow night.
630 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Modest upper level ridging and associated subsidence will transit quickly overhead tonight, with flow aloft gradually backing on Wednesday ahead of broad upper troughing over the Pacific coast. Cloud cover should diminish by about midday as drier WSW flow erodes the top of the low level moist layer, with breezy conditions expected during the afternoon hours as mixing heights ascend above 700mb, especially on the Caprock.
Bouts of decent solar insolation this afternoon detected by GOES-16 visibile satellite imagery have allowed temperatures to peak out in the lower 80s at most island communities.
928 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 (Issued 928 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023) Quiet weather is expected overnight, as high pressure gradually shifts southeast of the region. The return flow ramps up on Wednesday with a tighter pressure gradient between the departed high and approaching low pressure system.
624 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 After another cool night with temperatures below freezing, the rest of the week will be windy.
High pressure advancing from the Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians will bring quiet weather to the region in the Short Term. A small patch of AC over South Dakota and Nebraska this afternoon may drift over southwest Indiana and western Kentucky early tomorrow morning as it slowly falls apart, but by and large we'll have clear skies at sunrise with the center of the high pressure over the middle Ohio Valley. With mostly sunny skies and a light south breeze, high temperatures on Wednesday will be in the lower and middle 50s. only about five degrees cooler than normal.