Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overall max temps should be slightly cooler but still appears likely that a corridor of heat indices of 105-110 will develop over part of southeast OK into west central AR Thursday afternoon. At this time, cloud cover is expected to keep temperatures north of that region in the lower 90s, but dew points north of the boundary are quite high and may push heat indices close to advisory levels as well. As the upper ridge retreats back to the west Thursday.
347 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 West to northwest flow aloft has set in across Wyoming as high pressure across the desert southwest tries to expand northward. Otherwise, Thursday will be cooler for most, with temperatures generally peaking in the 70s and 80s.
EASTERN FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ESE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA/BAHAMAS. RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS (SSE TO SSW) ABOUT THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO FORM AND PUSH WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON A FAIRLY LARGE GRADIENT IN PWATS ACROSS THE CWA, RANGING FROM 1.
A cold front will make gradual southward progress through the region tonight. Highs today are forecast to range from 85 to 90 degrees, then remain in the lower to middle 80s on Friday.
206 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2023 The upper level ridge axis to the west of the forecast area will begin to move east by Friday night. Today, temperatures will be slightly below normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s. On Friday, daytime temps will be warmer, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.
Meanwhile, upper level trough along the Eastern Seaboard slides east through today. In response, upper level ridge of high pressure builds from the west over the Sunshine State. Afternoon temperatures climb in the low to mid 90s with heat indices up to around 107 degrees. Area of high pressure remains in control across the Gulf waters through the end of the week. The ridge will slide south again over the weekend, bringing a return to westerly flow.
333 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 A cold front will trigger scattered thunderstorms across central Illinois today. Once the front passes, cooler and less humid conditions will be on tap for Friday with highs dropping into the lower 80s. Given dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s, HREF ensemble mean CAPEs reach 2500-3000J/kg during peak heating. After a few thunderstorms south of I-70 early this evening, cooler/drier weather will arrive across the entire KILX CWA tonight with lows dropping into the lower to middle 60s.
(Today and tonight) The upper ridge will slide westward and be centered over western New Mexico today. This shift in the high pressure will give some relief to temperatures this afternoon with high temperatures mostly in the 90s, but a few locations (mostly off the Caprock) may approach the triple digit mark.
This could allow temperatures to be slightly cooler in the north, but at the same time trap some moisture in place.
Since mid-upper flow at the base of the trough will be fairly strong, moderate effective shear values should support tilted/sustained convection. Otherwise, the most robust cells could produce severe hail, particularly if any persistent mesocyclones form. The tornado threat is typically low with straight hodograph environments, but nonzero, especially with any organized supercell possessing a stronger mesocyclone. Convection is expected to move east of the area by mid-evening with the leading edge of post frontal drier/cooler continental air mass arriving during the night. The synoptic pattern will amplify further into the weekend with negative midlevel height anomalies and deepening large scale troughing centered over our region, and amplifying ridging across the west.
A cold front pushes through Thursday evening, which should limit the slight chance to chance PoPs Friday to southern portions of the forecast area, with the NAM the northern outlier. Highs drop off to the lower 80s Friday following the cold front with lows in the lower 60s Friday night as dry air moves in.
(Today through Friday) Persistent heat through the short term with the east-west elongated ridge shifting slightly northwestward through Friday as a trough over the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS pushes into Northeast Texas. The ridge applying subsidence could help push that dust down towards the surface through the day today.
116 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 High pressure will bring a mostly dry and less humid air mass to the region tonight into Thursday.
(Today through Friday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending from Arizona to the ArklaTex, flattened by a Canadian trough entering the Great Lakes region. Widespread triple digits are still expected today, but cooler than yesterday. However, a heat advisory will continue for the higher elevations. Friday, the ridge shifts west to Arizona as the Canadian trough digs into the northeast CONUS, dropping thicknesses further over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. In addition, models even bring a cold front into the northeast zones, which will temper highs there as well. A heat advisory may still be needed for the higher elevations, but we'll let later shifts make the call on that one.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase late this afternoon and evening and continue into the overnight hours with the approach and passage of a cold front. The surface cold front, which will trail the upper level wave, will cross the region late tonight and exit to the east around dawn. The atmosphere will be unstable tonight, and modest to strong shear will remain, however, latest forecast soundings are showing a cap in the lower levels and the time of day is not optimal. Friday will remain a few ticks below seasonable average behind the cold frontal passage. A few showers are possible with low-level moisture in upper troughing, most likely for higher elevations and northwest Pennsylvania. Upper troughing will remain the highlight of the weekend.
Highs will be in the low 90s with heat index values in the low 100s.
1144 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 (This evening through Thursday Night) The relentless grip of a very strong UL high pressure system continues to keep southeast Texas sizzling. The aforementioned ridge will nudge slightly westward tomorrow afternoon.
116 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Drier and warmer conditions with typical westerly afternoon breezes return today into the weekend.
(Today and tonight) The bad news is that hot and dry conditions are once again expected today, with highs well above seasonal normals as an upper level ridge centered across the Desert Southwest continues to dominate our weather. Temperatures across the northern Edwards Plateau will be slightly cooler, in the 100 to 102 range, so an advisory was not needed.
101 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 High pressure will bring a mostly dry and less humid air mass to the region tonight into Thursday.
Highs and heat index values look similar Thursday, but maybe a little cooler, especially across northern AR. A break in the heat is forecast Friday, when the stationary boundary digs south across the CWA as a cold front. Cooler temperatures on the north side of the front will spill into the northern half of the state. High temperatures across northern and central AR will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s, and in the lower to mid 90s across southern portions of the state.
We are still looking for highs Fri in the low 80s, which is around 10 degrees below normal highs for this time of year. To start the weekend, strong upper ridging will be centered over the Desert Southwest with upper troughing encompassing the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into the Northeast CONUS.
Sun above the low cloud deck and drying out in the 925 mb layer will result in clearing of these clouds likely mid morning.
Lows in the low-mid 70s except for some upper 60s far N remain reasonable.
The upper ridge is expected to slowly weaken over the next couple of days but global models are showing temperatures near persistent with 850 temps remaining steady.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this evening and into the overnight hours with the approach and passage of a cold front. The surface cold front, which will trail the upper level wave, will cross the region late tonight and exit to the east around dawn. The atmosphere will be unstable tonight, and modest to strong shear will remain, however, latest forecast soundings are showing a cap in the lower levels and the time of day is not optimal. Friday will remain a few ticks below seasonable average behind the cold frontal passage. A few showers are possible with low-level moisture in upper troughing, most likely for higher elevations and northwest Pennsylvania. Upper troughing will remain the highlight of the weekend.
Daytime Thursday, short range guidance agrees weak 500-mb height falls and weak CAA behind the previous night's cold front will knock afternoon temperatures down a notch or two into the upper 80s/low 90s range. Therefore, a Flood Watch will be issued for the northwest zones where the highest risk of flooding exists. Lingering showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing sunrise Friday across the south/southeast zones, however most of southwest KS will be dry by 12Z with temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Once all precipitation exits the area, thunderstorm outflow will strengthen the relatively cooler airmass over the central plains, leading to an anomalously cool July afternoon with highs in the mid 70s west to low 80s east.
(Today and tonight) Mid-level ridging will continue to dominate the Southern Plains today, with the northern stream of the ridge over our area. Not much relief will accompany this boundary until later this evening as dewpoints will still be in the low 70s for most places. Storms are expected to move in from the High Plains and begin to form into a complex of storms in northwest Oklahoma.
Friday there is a northwest flow trough, and profiles become marginally unstable. The forecast period opens with an upper level ridge over the western CONUS. Eventually, this ridge is modeled to shift over and crash onto the northern plains region, bringing some of that high heat from the southwestern U.
/NEW/ /Through Friday Evening/ Another hot day is in store across North and Central Texas today as the high pressure ridge in the Desert SW continues to extend a lobe of elevated mid-level heights across North and Central Texas. The one exception will be the immediate Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, where the heat island effect should keep temperatures in the lower 80s. With the slow southward progress of the cold front, much of the region will experience triple digit heat once again. The strong upper level high will shift slightly to the west by the end of the week and weekend, placing North and Central Texas beneath northwesterly flow.
1144 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 A quiet night is in store as upper ridging looms over the region. 11/Calhoun (Tonight through Friday night) The persistent ridge aloft will remain anchored from the SW states east toward the northern Gulf coast, resulting in ongoing above normal heat and limited rain chances through the next few days. At the surface, high pressure will continue across the northern Gulf of Mexico, maintaining a south to southwest wind pattern in the lower levels. However, capping aloft associated with the ridge will begin to weaken slightly over the eastern zones and this could result in a few showers or an isolated storm over the Acadiana region.
Dry conditions return overnight as showers and storms exit east into Wyoming with a ridge axis of high pressure shifting overhead for Friday leading to a continued warming trend into the weekend.
(Today through Friday) A gradual drying and warming trend begins today as mid-level ridging remains in place over Florida and a plume of Saharan dust approaches from the east. Ridging will weaken (but remain in place) on Friday as an upper- level trough drops over the eastern US. This will help push the ridge axis of the Atlantic high southward, resulting in a shift to more southerly-southwesterly winds over the area. With enough moisture still lingering near the lower levels and the slow push inland of the Saharan dust plume, chances for showers and storms will remain elevated on Friday afternoon, especially over the interior and southwest. Temperatures will continue to climb through the short term, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s both days.
The front will become quasi-stationary over SC through the weekend, while high pressure will build across the OH Valley and middle Atlantic. So carry some low chance POPs in the far east through 09z as drier air filters in with the flow turning W/NW behind the trough's passage. Low temperatures will be mainly in the lower-to-mid-70s, with isolated upper-60s possible in the far north and west. A cold front will dig southeast across the area during the day into the evening, with drier air filtering in behind.
221 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2023 MORNING FORECAST: An upper level ridge will be the dominating pattern through the end of the upcoming weekend. At the surface, high pressure builds over much of the Northern Plains today, shifting southward toward the Central Great Plains by Friday, generally keeping the CWA dry with low chances (<10%) of wetting rain.
1233 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 A cold front will exit across the Gulf of Maine overnight. High pressure will cross the region Thursday.
210 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Key Message: - Best measurable rain chances today/tonight will be confined to the far southwestern CWA, with drier and cooler air moving into the area by Friday. Thereafter, northerly surface winds will advect notably drier air into the CWA through the afternoon hours, with dewpoints in the low to middle 60s by sunset. Widespread convection is expected to develop over the High Plains during the afternoon, with a MCS diving from southwest Kansas into northeast Oklahoma overnight.
It is very clear by looking at radar trends that the layer of dry air in the lower-levels has stuck around.
1213 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) There will be little to no change in the synoptic pattern through the short term as 500mb ridging remains firmly in place across the region.
102 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 High pressure will bring a mostly dry and less humid air mass to the region tonight into Thursday.
The cold front is now just moving into westerly Wisconsin this morning, so there may still be a window for a few additional showers and storms through mid-morning. Southeast Wisconsin will be the warm spot today, in the low/mid 80s.
1102 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 A round of showers and thunderstorms will occur Thursday as a low pressure system and cold front move through the area. As the low moves east, an associated cold front will be dropping into the Ohio Valley from the northwest. After the cold front moves through Thursday night, storms chances come to an end and drier air moves in from the northwest.
For today, the cold front will move across the area this morning, along with an upper level disturbance. For the afternoon, cyclonic flow aloft along with cooler air aloft will bring a continued chance of showers and a few storms. Behind the cold front, gusty northwest winds are expected which may gust to around 25 mph at times especially across northern Door County. It will be cool for late July standards with lows in the upper 40s to middle 50s, although it may be a bit warmer across northern Door County where winds will be coming off the relatively warmer waters of the Bay of Green Bay. High temperatures should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s at most places, although cooler near Lake Michigan.
218 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 A round of showers and thunderstorms will occur Thursday as a low pressure system and cold front move through the area. As the low moves east, an associated cold front will be dropping into the Ohio Valley from the northwest. After the cold front moves through Thursday night, storms chances come to an end and drier air moves in from the northwest.
(Today through Friday Night) Dangerous hot and dry conditions continue today and Friday as mid to upper level ridge dominates the pattern. Upper ridging weakens and expands further east today. ridging aloft continues to weaken and/or retreat westward. At the sfc, winds will gradually transition to the southwest as high pressure moves across the Southeastern CONUS.
Temperatures today will be slightly cooler, mostly aided by the ongoing convection this morning.
The high pressure ridge axis lifted across the area today, and will keep a light E/SE flow in place for tomorrow, with the afternoon sea breeze taking over the flow.
Probably not enough to warm temps up to NBM numbers, so the forecast will have highs mainly in the lower 80s in most spots. Tonight, a cold front will be located along the OH Valley region, pushing southward into KY.
630 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge will slide westward and be centered over western New Mexico today. This shift in the high pressure will give some relief to temperatures this afternoon with high temperatures mostly in the 90s, but a few locations (mostly off the Caprock) may approach the triple digit mark.
Sunny above the low clouds so should clear out by 15z. Sun above the low cloud deck and drying out in the 925 mb layer will result in clearing of these clouds likely mid morning.
537 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending from Arizona to the ArklaTex, flattened by a Canadian trough entering the Great Lakes region. Widespread triple digits are still expected today, but cooler than yesterday. However, a heat advisory will continue for the higher elevations. Friday, the ridge shifts west to Arizona as the Canadian trough digs into the northeast CONUS, dropping thicknesses further over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. In addition, models even bring a cold front into the northeast zones, which will temper highs there as well. A heat advisory may still be needed for the higher elevations, but we'll let later shifts make the call on that one.
The high remains centered over New Mexico allowing for hot temperatures to persist across the Intermountain West. Brief moderate to heavy rain in the mountains and gusty outflow winds are possible in the low elevations. For Friday, much of the same can be expected as the high maintains its hold over the West.
Key Message: - Best measurable rain chances today/tonight will be confined to the far southwestern CWA, with drier and cooler air moving into the area by Friday. Thereafter, northerly surface winds will advect notably drier air into the CWA through the afternoon hours, with dewpoints in the low to middle 60s by sunset. Widespread convection is expected to develop over the High Plains during the afternoon, with a MCS diving from southwest Kansas into northeast Oklahoma overnight.
626 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 (Today through Friday) Persistent heat through the short term with the east-west elongated ridge shifting slightly northwestward through Friday as a trough over the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS pushes into Northeast Texas. The ridge applying subsidence could help push that dust down towards the surface through the day today.
High pressure extending over the Florida Keys will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes over the island coastal waters through Friday.
This low moves ese-ward, crossing northern lower MI from mid morning to mid afternoon. Warm/moist sw flow ahead of this low is supporting some convection across the northern lakes, though radar continues to overstate this, as the low levels are still trying to moisten. How much can we recover after this, and before the surface cold front exits by late afternoon? Significant surface-based instability, and resultant severe storms, seem /much/ more likely downstate than here. Severe is a possibility, especially in our far se, which should the highest instability and shear in our area. Slower-moving deep convection may actually be possible in eastern upper MI this afternoon, where the upper trof moves overhead. Slightly Cooler but Pleasant.
Temperatures will moderate on Friday, as showers and thunderstorms develop along a weak, but progressive cold front.
An upper level low off the Alaska Panhandle will support the intensification of the ridge pattern over the West as dangerous heat returns to the area. Current upper-air analysis has the center of the upper high near El Paso and is expected to shift westward over the next 48 hours.
555 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 A cold front will trigger scattered thunderstorms across central Illinois today. Once the front passes, cooler and less humid conditions will be on tap for Friday with highs dropping into the lower 80s. Given dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s, HREF ensemble mean CAPEs reach 2500-3000J/kg during peak heating. After a few thunderstorms south of I-70 early this evening, cooler/drier weather will arrive across the entire KILX CWA tonight with lows dropping into the lower to middle 60s.
450 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Strengthening high pressure over the Great Basin and southwest states will bring warming into the weekend with dangerous heat continuing over inland areas, especially for the deserts.
Look for building high pressure through the rest of the week. Model simulations are showing a strong upper ridge over the southern United States. The position of this ridge is forecast to shift westward over the short term, building over northern and central Nevada. Upper ridging will continue building over the forecast area Friday and Friday night with warming conditions.
637 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 (Today through Friday Night) Dangerous hot and dry conditions continue today and Friday as mid to upper level ridge dominates the pattern. Upper ridging weakens and expands further east today. ridging aloft continues to weaken and/or retreat westward. At the sfc, winds will gradually transition to the southwest as high pressure moves across the Southeastern CONUS.
741 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 (Today through Friday) A gradual drying and warming trend begins today as mid-level ridging remains in place over Florida and a plume of Saharan dust approaches from the east. Ridging will weaken (but remain in place) on Friday as an upper- level trough drops over the eastern US. This will help push the ridge axis of the Atlantic high southward, resulting in a shift to more southerly-southwesterly winds over the area. With enough moisture still lingering near the lower levels and the slow push inland of the Saharan dust plume, chances for showers and storms will remain elevated on Friday afternoon, especially over the interior and southwest. Temperatures will continue to climb through the short term, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s both days.
532 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Today and tonight: A flat upper ridge continues to be the predominant influence to our area resulting in hot and dry conditions.
High pressure system overhead will keep the area dry through the day with comfortable temperatures. Friday there is a northwest flow trough, and profiles become marginally unstable. The forecast period opens with an upper level ridge over the western CONUS. Eventually, this ridge is modeled to shift over and crash onto the northern plains region, bringing some of that high heat from the southwestern U.
Temperatures slightly above average through the end of the week becoming cooler for the weekend as a cold front moves into the area. Upper trough over the Great Lakes region. Ridge continues out west extending east across the Gulf coast region. but short wave trough should be moving east of the area after 06z. Stayed close to the NBM temperatures with highs in the low to mid 90s. A cold front will approach the area Friday night and upper ridging will weaken.
Mid level trough and embedded vort maxes seen across N OK / TX Panhandle will track eastward across the region today and could interact with the sfc boundary to support isolated afternoon convection primarily across NW AR. Otherwise the associated cloud cover may keep temps a few degrees cooler than yesterday however heat index forecasts remain well into the advisory levels and headlines have been adjusted accordingly.