Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
955 PM PDT Sun Jul 9 2023 The arrival of a cold front on Monday will bring the potential for strong thunderstorms, locally heavy rain, and lightning to the region.
The dry weather will continue Monday and Monday night as an upper ridge over the southwest CONUS begins to build east. Light, variable winds will become southerly Monday morning as high pressure pushes east.
845 PM PDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Heat will steadily build this week as high pressure strengthens over Arizona.
It'll be several degrees warmer today with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area. Even the lakeshore will get in on the warmer temperatures thanks to the southwest winds.
(Today through Tuesday Night ) Calm and quieter conditions are expected through much of the short term as high pressure builds back into the area. Widespread rain is not expected and severe weather chances will remain on the low side.
207 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 A cold front will push through the area through Monday.
434 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 An upper level trough with its cool air aloft will drift east across the region today. High pressure at the surface and aloft will return for Tuesday, accompanied by mostly sunny skies, slightly below normal high temperatures and comfortable humidity.
318 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue over southeastern NC and northeastern SC today as a cold front slowly pushes across the area by early Tuesday.
307 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 A cold front will clear the area later this morning. High pressure builds in from the west into midweek. Sfc obs/analysis also indicate a weak cold front is draped NE-SW across the FA, which will turn the winds NW today (though remaining quite light at ~5-10 mph) and usher in some (relatively) drier air.
(Today through Tuesday) Current synoptic pattern analysis shows a ridge over the 4-Corners region, Bermuda ridge in the western Atlantic, and a mid latitude trough draped south from Canada to the Gulf Coast just east of the Mississippi River. This setup puts the CWA within northwest flow on the eastern edge of the ridge to the west.
Today and Tomorrow: Water vapor imagery this evening is much quieter compared to the past few nights, with most of the action being pushed south and east of a deepening trough centered over the eastern third of the CONUS.
312 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: This week will be synoptically driven by the push and pull between an upper level high fixed over the southwest CONUS into Mexico and an upper level low cycling over the Hudson Bay region. The highest severe potential this afternoon/evening will be contained to Petroleum and western Garfield counties with the primary threat being wind.
625 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 The mid-level ridge centered over the southwest CONUS and an upper low near the vicinity of the Hudson Bay will maintain northwest flow over the region through the week. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift east through the morning today, leaving the Mid- Mississippi River Valley in dry, warm southerly flow.
This activity is ongoing ahead of a weak and somewhat diffuse cold front that has dipped southward into the area overnight.
708 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Low pressure remains across the eastern seaboard this morning with a dry Saharan Air layer (SAL) draped across the Southern tip of Florida. Little relief from the heat is expected with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s expected.
Temperatures will not stray too far from average before warming considerably later in the week as upper level ridging becomes the dominant feature.
514 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 The mid-level ridge centered over the southwest CONUS and an upper low near the vicinity of the Hudson Bay will maintain northwest flow over the region through the week. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift east through the morning today, leaving the Mid- Mississippi River Valley in dry, warm southerly flow.
Usually when we're near the ridge axis, a blended model approach should do well with temperatures. Some brief short wave ridging will move across central Indiana today. At the surface, high pressure will remain the main influence. Although skies will be mostly clear, temperatures will be warmer thanks to some southwest winds. Lows will be in the lower to middle 60s. The current synoptic pattern across North America is characterized by deep troughing over central Canada, with ridging located over the Desert Southwest. The first hint of convective activity should present itself later on Tuesday as a cold front sags southward, settling across northern Illinois and Indiana.
Much warmer conditions are then expected during mid to late week. Seasonable early summer conditions will prevail across NWRN CA through mid week, with broad upper troughing occurring over the NERN PAC and PACNW aiding in near to slightly below normal temperatures across interior valleys.
(Today through Tuesday) Low pressure remains across the eastern seaboard this morning with a dry Saharan Air layer (SAL) draped across the Southern tip of Florida. Little relief from the heat is expected with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s expected.
Even though moisture levels are better, the high aloft remains fairly close with subsidence limiting more widespread development. Temperatures may sneak up at the end of the work week into the weekend as ensembles show the high strengthening and positioning just to our north.
The low-level ridge axis remains surpressed across south FL.
1057 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 High pressure builds in from the west into midweek. Weak cold front off the coast.
Patchy stratus and fog will continue to lurk across the southeast plains where dew points remain in the lower to mid 60s as of 3 AM. Drier air spreading in behind the system should allow for cooler overnight lows where surface winds decouple and clear skies allow for good radiational cooling. Dropped lows from model blends for some of our cooler mountain valley locations. 2) Relatively cooler temperatures with an increase in precipitation chances for the end of the week and through the weekend.
731 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 An upper level trough with its cool air aloft will drift east across the region today. High pressure at the surface and aloft will return for Tuesday, accompanied by mostly sunny skies, slightly below normal high temperatures and comfortable humidity.
613 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 A July cold front has ushered in a welcomed drier airmass across the Midsouth.
High pressure ridge axis is located currently over the Idaho/Wyoming border. Look for breezy southwest flow over the area today as a trough moves over our northern areas. Tuesday models show high pressure ridging building back into the area.
623 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 High pressure builds in today with lower humidity and temperatures. This high pressure keeps us dry into midweek before the next front approaches toward the weekend. Dry conditions continue through tonight and mostly clear skies and calm winds will result in much cooler overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s.
High pressure will build into the region and remain in place through the remainder of the week, bringing hot and dry conditions.
657 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 A cold front will clear the area later this morning. High pressure builds in from the west into midweek. Sfc obs/analysis also indicate a weak cold front is draped NE-SW across the FA, which will turn the winds NW today (though remaining quite light at ~5-10 mph) and usher in some (relatively) drier air.
High pressure remains over eastern Arizona and New Mexico today, keeping northward moisture advection in place. Even with the moisture increase, model soundings still show an inverted-v profile given the dry air still in place in the lower levels. Over the higher terrain, a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch in some of the heaviest storms will be possible.
620 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night ) Calm and quieter conditions are expected through much of the short term as high pressure builds back into the area. Widespread rain is not expected and severe weather chances will remain on the low side.
949 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue over southeastern NC and northeastern SC today as a cold front slowly pushes across the area by early Tuesday.
A weak upper trough will move through the area today pushing the best chance for isolated storms north and east of our area. Temperatures for most inland areas will be cooler than yesterday, but still above normal for this time of the year.
644 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue over southeastern NC and northeastern SC today as a cold front slowly pushes across the area by early Tuesday. Also, issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the lower Cape Fear River for high tide this afternoon.
Lee troughing will be slow to move east, and thus higher low level moisture will hold in areas east of a Sterling to Akron to Limon line. Anything west of the lee trough will be high based, and still plenty of DCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) around so any showers/storms over the mountains, I-25 Corridor, and adjacent plains will be capable of producing gusty winds of 40-50 mph. An upper level ridge continues for the forecast area bringing drier air throughout the 500-700mb layer Tuesday. Areas across plains could reach the mid 90s and areas across the mountains and valleys could reach the low 70s to low 80s.
While the 12z KKEY RAOB recorded ample CAPE this morning, the lower level SAL air sampled between 825-700 mb will inhibit most, if not all, shower development, so this energy will remain untapped. Temperatures will continue to rise into the lower to mid 90s, and with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, heat indices could breach Heat Advisory criteria. From synopsis, a weak Atlantic ridge will continue to lift slowly northward from the Keys waters into South Florida through midweek.
Temperatures remain a bit cooler in the upper 80's for most locations this afternoon, with warmer temperatures Tuesday in the lower 90's for highs.
612 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Very warm weather will return early this week with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s as weak ridging builds over the region.
High pressure and dry air is moving into the region from the west which is allowing for skies to clear. The rest of the day will consist of clement weather with clear skies, light winds, and high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Low temperatures are expected to reach the low 60s.
204 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 An upper level trough with its cool air aloft will drift east across the region today. High pressure at the surface and aloft will return for Tuesday, accompanied by mostly sunny skies, slightly below normal high temperatures and comfortable humidity.
228 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Low pressure over the area today will move slowly northeast into New England through tonight.
249 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 High pressure off to the west will build in through Tuesday before moving further offshore by midweek.
Western and central North Dakota remains under northwest flow aloft with a ridge to our west, it's axis centered over central Montana. At the surface, a backdoor cold front has dipped south of the area and into northern South Dakota. The western ridge will slowly approach the Montana/North Dakota border and deamplify through the day, with the axis moving into the state by the overnight hours. Lows tonight will be on the chilly side for most, ranging from the low to mid 40s northeast to the mid to upper 50s southwest. Temperatures will be cooler across the board Tuesday with highs only in the 60s for most areas. Expect lows in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night.
More of the same is in store for tomorrow as high pressure will be overhead. Highs will be a few degrees warmer tomorrow, right around seasonal averages. Quiet comfortable weather isn't going to stick around tho, warmer temperatures, more humidity, and thunderstorms chances return by the middle to end of the week.
1246 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Low pressure over the area today will move slowly northeast into New England through tonight.
The mid level ridge will hold over the region through the period.
Overall warmer conditions expected today, but still just below normal.
Morning lows will dip to cooler levels than recent days with widespread 60s expected across north Georgia.
422 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 A cold front will slowly push off the coast tonight. Following the front, a typical summertime pattern with high pressure offshore and troughing inland will redevelop through late this week bringing hot and muggy weather.
South central Texas sits on the eastern periphery of a 595 dm ridge, with weak northerly flow aloft over weak S to SSE sfc flow.
248 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 An upper level trough with its cool air aloft will drift east across the region today. High pressure at the surface and aloft will return for Tuesday, accompanied by mostly sunny skies, slightly below normal high temperatures and comfortable humidity.
208 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 High pressure builds in from the west into mid week. Highs in the u80s-around 90F Tue w/ l-m90s for Wed (slightly cooler both days at the beaches). Rain chances (for mainly diurnal SHRAs/tstms) increase late Thu-Mon as a broad trough aloft settles towards the ern CONUS and a sfc cold front slowly settles near the local area. Early this morning, a weak cold front is crossing the waters with winds becoming NW ~10 knots (gusts up to 15 knots).
Tuesday generally looks to be a much quieter day as a ridge builds to the southwest.
125 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue over southeastern NC and northeastern SC today as a cold front slowly pushes across the area by early Tuesday.
(This evening through Tuesday) A broad upper level trough in the eastern CONUS will continue through the short term. In central Alabama, surface winds have also largely come around to the north as a cold front starts to push through the area.
217 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Backdoor cold front moved through this morning and is bringing some weak cold air advection into the area. Tonight showers and thunderstorms will move into the are as an upper level Low moves in from the Pacific Northwest. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain across the area tomorrow as that upper level Low passes by.
137 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 High pressure builds in from the west into mid week. Weak cold front off the coast. Highs in the u80s-around 90F Tue w/ l-m90s for Wed (slightly cooler both days at the beaches). Rain chances (for mainly diurnal SHRAs/tstms) increase late Thu-Mon as a broad trough aloft settles towards the ern CONUS and a sfc cold front slowly settles near the local area. Early this morning, a weak cold front is crossing the waters with winds becoming NW ~10 knots (gusts up to 15 knots).
A cold front stalled over the corridor keeping dry air and dewpoints relatively low in the low 70s going into the upper 60s. Low temperatures overnight will range from the upper 60s above I-20 and the low 70s below. For Tuesday, a stalled cold front will lift further north as the boundary will be just shy of reaching I-20.
An upper level trough moving into NE Washington this afternoon has created a diffluent upstream atmosphere across the Northern Rockies. This has placed a cap on heating with temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees cooler than forecast. Farther north stratiform showers are likely to continue overnight and into Tuesday morning along the Canadian border as the main upper level low moves across northwest Montana. The trough passage will result in a rather pleasant summer day with temperatures near normal and some afternoon breeziness on Tuesday.
1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 The mid-level ridge centered over the southwest CONUS and an upper low near the vicinity of the Hudson Bay will maintain northwest flow over the region through the week. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift east through the morning today, leaving the Mid- Mississippi River Valley in dry, warm southerly flow.
At 1 PM CDT, skies are mostly sunny and temperatures range from the upper 70s near the border of the Dakotas/MN to the low to mid 90s across central and south central South Dakota. West to southwest winds ahead of a cold front moving through the region are switching around to the northeast or east behind the boundary. Still, between 19Z and 02Z, can't rule out a couple of thunderstorms developing either within the Lee-Of-The-Black Hills surface trof/low analyzed near Onida, or along the strongest forcing associated with this cold fropa working south through the region today.
1129 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 High pressure builds in today with lower humidity and temperatures. This high pressure keeps us dry into midweek before the next front approaches toward the weekend. Dry conditions continue through tonight and mostly clear skies and calm winds will result in much cooler overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s.
141 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 High pressure builds in today with lower humidity and temperatures. This high pressure keeps us dry into midweek before the next front approaches toward the weekend. Dry conditions continue through tonight and mostly clear skies and calm winds will result in much cooler overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s.
Discussion: Frontal boundary is well south of our CWA, and high pressure continues to build in this afternoon and into Tuesday, keeping conditions dry across East Tennessee.
129 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 A weak cold front will push through the area through the day today before shifting offshore by Tuesday morning.
Warmer temperatures aloft should effectively cap convective development across most of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening.
227 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 The setup aloft this afternoon features troughing over much of the eastern part of the country with ridging south of Florida. The base of the trough extends over about the northern half of the Florida peninsula with the northern extent of the ridge over the southern part of the peninsula. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis extends westward over the Florida straits while a frontal boundary remains draped across the southeastern U. With the boundary lingering over north Florida, the highest rain chances will continue over the northern part of the forecast area through Tuesday, with hot and humid conditions elsewhere. Rain chances remain on the high side for our northern waters for the rest of today as a frontal boundary slowly sinks southward.
Hi-Res short term model guidance is in good agreement that convective initiation should take place by late afternoon near this inverted trough. A pseudo warm frontal boundary will be located east of the low through the central Sandhills, with a dryline extending southward across the southeast NE Panhandle into far eastern CO. A very moist (surface dew points in the lower 70s) will be in place to the east of the dryline and south of the warm front across southwest NE. There is a bit of concern on the stronger cap tomorrow, but fairly confident that should be overcome as temperatures rise into the lower 90s across southwest NE. A weak cold frontal boundary will settle south into the area, and may be pushed further southward into KS due to convection outflow.
An upper-level composite analysis this afternoon reveals deep, weak ridging across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters. The combination of light winds, full sun, and large-scale warm ridging have led to another very hot and humid day in Keys island communities, with current air temperatures mostly in the lower 90s with dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
124 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Very warm weather will return early this week with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s as weak ridging builds over the region.
1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night ) Calm and quieter conditions are expected through much of the short term as high pressure builds back into the area. Widespread rain is not expected and severe weather chances will remain on the low side.
Weak upper level trof sliding east through Idaho panhandle tonight will provide some isolated thunderstorms in the central mountains this afternoon and early evening with most activity to the north and into Montana. This trof passage will lead to a more westerly zonal flow aloft Tuesday with a slight increase in winds Tuesday afternoon with some gusts of 15 to 25 mph in the Snake River Plain mainly with locally up to 30 mph.
348 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 A weak cold front will stall over the area tonight and meander nearby into mid week before dissipating. An inland trough will develop later in the week as high pressure begins to build over the Atlantic. At the surface, a weak cold front will linger in the vicinity with a wave of low pressure to move offshore later this evening. Mid and upper level ridging will stretch from the southwest United States into the Gulf of Mexico and then into the ocean east of the Bahamas through the period, while a deep cyclone persists over or near Hudson Bay in Canada.
310 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 High pressure centered over the mid-Mississippi Valley this evening will drift east into Kentucky and Tennessee tonight, bringing clear skies and nearly calm winds. Lows tonight will be a couple degrees warmer than last night. We'll have another quiet weather day on Tuesday as the high weakens slightly but doesn't move much. Upper pattern continues to feature a closed upper low and trough over central Canada dipping into the upper Midwest with strong ridging centered over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico stretching northward into the Four Corners and Intermountain West.
354 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Low pressure over New England tracks slowly northeast tonight. Weak high pressure builds to the south and west late tonight into Tuesday, and into the area Tuesday night.
250 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Our wave is crashing into the crest of the ridge as we speak and losing steam quickly. This wave and a stronger wave moving along the northwest border of the CONUS will be damping the northern amplification of ridge which will push the jet stream to slightly lower latitudes.
228 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Stalled low pressure over New England will maintain the risk for heavy showers and thunderstorms for the Eastern Lake Ontario through at least the first half of tonight. high pressure over the Ohio valley will build northeast and provide fair weather for the region tonight and Tuesday.
Despite that, the lower levels aren't quite that warm and we will have a little surface inversion to work through. The previous forecast has us a few degrees warmer than today and that looks good. A broad w-e oriented ridge of high pressure will stretch across the southern U.
Upper ridge builds over the state Tue, with drier air spreading across all of southern Colorado as dryline pushes east in KS.
1218 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Warming trend to impact the region as high pressure builds. Ensemble guidance continues to advertise a very strong ridge of high pressure developing over the Desert Southwest this week. Afternoon highs will trend upwards in response to the ridge of high pressure building. Afternoon highs today are forecast to be a couple degrees below normal, but that will quickly change on Tuesday as the ridge builds.
156 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023 After a few showers and thunderstorms this evening, slightly cooler air will arrive across North Central and Southwestern Montana, keeping highs in the 70s and 80s the next few days. In addition to the cooler temperatures, tranquil weather is also expected, with only a few isolated thunderstorms after midweek. Earlier forecasts, and still this one to a degree, were keying in on the potential for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms across the area, but some early morning cloud cover across Central and Southwestern Montana helped to keep temperatures a bit cooler than expected across parts of the area, which in turn kept the atmosphere a bit more stable. Beyond tonight, our weather will turn a bit cooler and more tranquil as the upper level flow becomes more zonal (westerly).