Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front on Monday will usher in cooler temperatures for the first half of the week. Lingering showers should clear the area west to east Monday morning through early afternoon, lingering longest in the ridges/higher elevations. Cold frontal passage on Monday will drop daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal to start the work week.
202 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Warm and increasingly humid conditions will return to the area today as southerly winds develop around high pressure moving farther offshore.
Water vapor imagery from this afternoon continues to reveal an Omega Block pattern over the central CONUS via a ridge extending from the Southern Plains into Central Canada. As one would expect with an Omega Block, a potent southern stream upper low over CA is sitting west of the ridge axis with an associated 100 kt subtropical jet streak nosing into the Southern Rockies. At the surface, a nearly stalled cold front extends from the Southern Plains to the Front Range corridor in Colorado. Behind this boundary cooler yet still moist conditions exist via temps in the 70s and dewpoints in the mid 50s to around 60 all the way to the foothills of the Sangre de Cristo mountains in NM and CO.
Remarkable cold advection at mid day, under clouds and northeast winds, we're seeing temperatures in our central and southern CWA fall each hour! That's amazing for June 11! Anyhow, I've lowered highs to a more conservative rise this afternoon, as it appears the cloud cover will hold through late day, and highs in the lower to mid 60s are more reachable, than around 70. We will dry out this afternoon with skies clearing out for tonight as flow shifts to the north behind the departing cold front.
Ensembles project the upper level low to continue move inland today with a troughing pattern remaining over SoCal that will continue to influence the region this week.
A cold front on Monday will usher in cooler temperatures for the first half of the week. The cold front will cross into western PA around 12z Monday, with showers tapering off shortly thereafter. Monday afternoon should be dry for most, outside of a lingering shower or two in the ridges/higher elevations. Post cold front, Monday's high temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal (60s to near 70F).
1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 (Today and tonight) For today, our area will be under a ridge aloft, extending from Mexico north across Texas. This looks to be a dirty ridge, with our area having some low thunderstorm chances later this afternoon and evening. Trailing portion of a cold front should sag south into the far northern Big Country late this afternoon and evening. While confidence in development and placement of convection is low across the central and southwestern parts of our area, potential hazards would include localized, strong downburst winds (inverted V type soundings) and hail (likely sub-severe with partial melting in the low-level hot airmass), along with lightning.
234 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 TONIGHT: As of mid afternoon, temperatures across the region range from the lower 60s (where stratus lingered longest this morning in northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota) to the lower 70s in central South Dakota.
Temperatures throughout the Island Chain are in the upper 80s with a few locations in the lower 90s such as Big Pine Key RAWS and Marathon. Some weak upper level troughing remains in place across the Gulf of Mexico eastward over the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula. In the low to mid levels, a distant western North Atlantic ridge extends westward over Cuba with some influence from this ridge making it north through the Florida Keys. With general south to southwesterly flow in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, this should help in bringing the moisture around Cuba and the Bahamas northwestward towards the Keys.
(This evening through Monday) Shower and thunderstorm chances pretty much come to an end today as the upper low moves inland. As the low moves ashore, marine layer expansion and more widespread drizzle is expected tonight into Monday morning along coastal areas and in the Santa Cruz Mtns. Hi-Res guidance suggests some limited potential for isolated showers early Monday morning around the Delta and northern SF Bay areas associated with some moisture wrapping around the low.
213 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Key Messages: - Uncertain precipitation chances Monday evening with cooler temperatures today and tomorrow. - Ridging pattern limits precipitation potential this week, keeping us dry and possibly elevating fire risk. Areas that keep overcast for more of the afternoon could trend even cooler. Tomorrow has been trending a bit warmer as guidance has been keeping the upper-level low that develops off of the trough further to the east allowing for some decreased cloud cover which should allow our locations west of the Mississippi River to warm a bit more. Tomorrow should be mostly dry with fairly deep mixing into the evening hours with saturation aloft that should keep our RHs on the lower side but higher than compared to last week, likely in the middle 20% to lower 30% range.
Instability is on the rise, with strong WAA behind the warm front to our north. Cold front remains out to the west, and should start developing additional convection west of the area soon. As mentioned in earlier discussions, cold front/cold pool driven storms may move a bit faster, so times can always change, so need to remain weather aware today. Main threat remains damaging wind gusts, but first strong storm of the afternoon went up fast just north of Nashville, and showed a strong hail signature, indicating that drier air aloft and steep lapse rates are indeed in place ahead of the cold front.
A cold front on Monday will usher in cooler temperature for the first half of the week. The cold front will cross into western PA around 12z Monday, with showers tapering off shortly thereafter. Monday afternoon should be dry for most, outside of a lingering shower or two in the ridges/higher elevations. Post cold front, Monday's high temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal (60s to near 70F).
(This evening through Monday) An outflow-enhanced cold front has pushed southward through the forecast area, although it will likely stall not much farther south than its location as of 1 PM.
1246 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Warm and increasingly humid conditions will return to the area today as southerly winds develop around high pressure moving farther offshore.
High pressure continues to dominate the forecast, with subsidence drying us out. Highs will range from the low 90s along the coast to near 108 for those in the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. The good news about the slightly drier air is that dewpoints will be slightly lower which will lead to cooler heat index values for some of the area.
Periods of sun today will allow valleys to warm into the 80s again with cumulus clouds building along ridges in the mountains.
An intense upper low drifting slowly southeast across the Great Lakes will keep the Quad State in a cyclonic northwest flow aloft.
The east side of the Bighorns would be at risk of low land flooding if heavy rain materializes over the higher elevations. Our northeast will again be sunny/dry under the influence of the upper level high.
Taking a look aloft, the main trough axis that helped fuel yesterday's rain chances continues to swing through the area this morning. Expected conditions to gradually clear over the course of the morning as the trough axis and subsequent cold front continue to push southwards. Taking a look around, cooler air continues to funnel into the region behind the previously mentioned surface front. As a result, most areas will wake up to a relatively cooler start compared to the previous days with temperatures expect to sit in the low to mid 50s by daybreak this morning. Otherwise, winds should decouple overnight with more light and variable flow setting in with the surface ridging.
-Continued ridging to the west providing northerly flow aloft, which could start to bring higher level smoke into the region from the Canadian wildfires. Discussion: Continued northerly flow thanks to an amplified ridge out to the west. The amplified ridge helps to keep dry air around the area, with systems remaining further toward the north into central Canada. Temperatures have remained cooler across the area today, with highs in the 70s. Satellite has shown the higher level smoke starting to move in from Canada this afternoon. Temperatures tonight will be warmer than this morning, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Warmer temperatures expected tomorrow, which will help drive RH values down further than today.
Tonight and Monday Dry air associated with a nearby high pressure system has struggled to move into the region this afternoon. Cooler temperatures are expected overnight with lows ranging from the middle to upper 30s in north-central WI to the low to middle 40s elsewhere. High temperatures will be warmer than today, but still below normal, with values ranging from the middle 60s to low 70s. Monday Night Through Sunday Somewhat unusual for the summer is an upper low over the Great Lakes, with low level warm advection coming from the northeast.
3) Cooler temperatures expected across the region on Monday.
621 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 (This evening through Monday) An outflow-enhanced cold front has pushed southward through the forecast area, although it will likely stall not much farther south than its location as of 1 PM.
Similar to the previous evenings, storms are expected to develop in the High Plains/southeastern Colorado and, with the weak northwesterly flow aloft, shift southeastward into Oklahoma overnight night and into Monday morning.
739 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 An upper trough will swing across the region through this evening, which along with sea breeze collisions anticipated will support scattered to numerous convection through this evening. The best dynamics with the upper trough will be found over southeast GA, and therefore this area will have the greatest chance for strong to isolated severe cells, with gusty winds and heavy downpours being the main threats.
457 PM MDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Current surface analysis shows high pressure over ND, with frontal boundary located along the lee of the Rockies. Upper level analysis continues to show general blocking pattern in place, with high over southern SK, cutoff low across the southwest US, and a trough over the Great Lakes region. A few showers/thundershowers are noted over southern Campbell County and the higher terrain to the south and west. Relatively quiet weather is expected through the first half of the week as upper high to the north slides southeast into the region and weakens with time. Weak energy passing across to the southwest of the high should allow showers/storms to develop during the PM hours Monday across northeast WY and possibly the Black Hills.
956 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 The cold front has moved through the area as have the strongest thunderstorms from this afternoon and evening. Instability is on the rise, with strong WAA behind the warm front to our north. Cold front remains out to the west, and should start developing additional convection west of the area soon. As mentioned in earlier discussions, cold front/cold pool driven storms may move a bit faster, so times can always change, so need to remain weather aware today. Main threat remains damaging wind gusts, but first strong storm of the afternoon went up fast just north of Nashville, and showed a strong hail signature, indicating that drier air aloft and steep lapse rates are indeed in place ahead of the cold front.
605 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 TONIGHT: As of mid afternoon, temperatures across the region range from the lower 60s (where stratus lingered longest this morning in northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota) to the lower 70s in central South Dakota.
On Monday, dry air over the area should keep the highest rain chances should be across southwest portions of the state.
Temperatures overnight could remain quite warm, with lows in the low 70s over the interior and into the mid to upper 70s along the coasts. Temperatures aloft continue to be a bit warmer with less than impressive lapse rates, so the coverage of stronger storms will likely be more on the isolated side.
Consensus from the high resolution guidance suggests the greatest threat will be along and north of US 50, expanding southward closer to the Kansas border.
647 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 An unsettled pattern will continue across the Midsouth for the upcoming work week but cooler temperatures will be a welcomed change for the first half of the week.
(Tonight through Sunday) Over the next couple of days the Great Lakes upper level low will strengthen and largely remain in place. Meanwhile, the upper level low over the southwestern USA will eject eastwards, gradually merging with the main low over the Great Lakes.
Some deepening of the low level mixed layer through cold air advection during the early morning will allow some improvement in ceilings to MVFR toward daybreak before a push of dry air and the onset of diurnal mixing erodes the low clouds by Mon afternoon. Cooler weather to start the work week. Large scale ascent/right entrance forcing with northern stream trough/wave and just enough moisture (12Z DTX sounding indicting PW values around 1 inch) to support light rain showers working through southeast Michigan this evening.
Dry weather and light winds will persist through Monday, with a cool night tonight, and highs Monday about 5 degrees F warmer than today. The air mass is a bit warmer than last night, so lows tonight will be a bit warmer, as well, mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s F. However, we did lean toward the cooler edge of the guidance envelope with lows in typically-favored cool spots in southwestern and south central ND (e.
231 PM PDT Sun Jun 11 2023 A broad 500mb cutoff low at the base of a trough over the west coast is currently parked in southern California, with the large scale circulation pushing some monsoonal moisture into the area from the ENE.
Storms associated with the cold front should begin to push into our area around late afternoon into the early evening.
649 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 (Tonight) Satellite imagery shows a low pressure system moving east across the Ohio River Valley today with an attendant cold front draped to the south and west. As this moves east into an airmass with around 2000 j/kg of SBCAPE, convective initiation is possible despite most hires guidance keeping the forecast dry through the afternoon until the cold front arrives. However, the main concern for severe storms is as the cold front sweeps through the Tennessee Valley later this afternoon into the evening. The CAMs show 2000 j/kg of CAPE and 30-40 kts of bulk shear as the cold front moves from NW to SE across the forecast area.
Currently - The Keys are embedded within the western flank of an Atlantic ridge that stretches across the Gulf of Mexico. Stubborn troughing from the lower through upper levels remain aligned mostly in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The southerly flow has brought in a more moisture rich air mass and dew points are now nudging above 75, while temperatures are in the lower 80s. An Atlantic ridge stretching westward across Keys waters will maintain light southerly breezes.
Southwest winds remain elevated into Sunday evening, especially for eastern Arizona, as a low pressure system moves toward the area.
Low temps in the lower 40s looks good. For Mon the upper low over Upper MI will slowly move to nrn lower MI by late in the day. At the sfc, a trough will shift south into srn WI during the afternoon while the leading edge of a vorticity maximum will be arriving from around the upper low. An upper low over Lake Superior is moving southward, bringing drier air as the trough axis pivots out of southern Wisconsin. high pressure pushes southward across the Dakotas.
Could also see a few sprinkles/light showers tomorrow morning as deeper moisture wrapping around the upper low grazes the area. (This evening through Monday) Shower and thunderstorm chances pretty much come to an end today as the upper low moves inland. As the low moves ashore, marine layer expansion and more widespread drizzle is expected tonight into Monday morning along coastal areas and in the Santa Cruz Mtns. Hi-Res guidance suggests some limited potential for isolated showers early Monday morning around the Delta and northern SF Bay areas associated with some moisture wrapping around the low.
There are still a few leftover showers and storms across NE MS and these will move into NE AL as the cold front, located from Savannah to Tunica, continues to push south overnight. We get a break Monday with cooler than normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions. An unsettled pattern will continue across the Midsouth for the upcoming work week but cooler temperatures will be a welcomed change for the first half of the week.
Weak cold front will move south through the Big Country this afternoon, likely moving along a Sterling City. A dryline may extend from Ozona to San Angelo to a triple point along the dryline/front at Ballinger or Coleman Dew points will be in the upper 60s to around 70s along the weak cold front with very strong instabilities. There is also the potential for a tornado along the boundary/cold front.
320 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 A closed upper low over the U. P embedded in a trough in the Great Lakes region will continue to slowly move southeast this period. By 12Z Monday, a deep, stacked closed low will be over Northern Lower MI.
328 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 High pressure will remain over the area today and tonight.
1033 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 TONIGHT: As of mid afternoon, temperatures across the region range from the lower 60s (where stratus lingered longest this morning in northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota) to the lower 70s in central South Dakota.
307 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Unseasonably cool temperatures more in line with early May will prevail for the next 24 hours as a deep closed low aloft spins over Lake Michigan. Even with fairly deep mixing, afternoon highs will be limited to the lower/mid 70s as 800mb temps drop to +4C. Record lows are in the 40s for our climate sites, which should all bottom out in the lower 50s even though some more rural locations could dip into the upper 40s.
Discussion: Most of the showres have exited our area to the east, as the primary shortave trough has moved east of the Appalachians. However, the surface cold front has yet to pass through, and is currently located across the Cumberland Plateau, identified mainly by a wind shift. Mostly clear skies tonight and building high pressure will allow for temperatures to drop well below normal tonight, with lows expected to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s in most spots.
A cooler and drier air mass will settle into the region and as a result temperatures will run 8-10 degrees below normal for mid June with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s being common.
A cold front, that will cross the region this morning, will usher in cooler temperature for the first half of the week. Shower coverage will increase late tonight as a cold front slowly moves across Ohio. A cold front will cross the eastern half of the forecast area this morning, clearing the eastern edge by early afternoon. The rain shield will shift east of the region early this afternoon, with mainly dry and cooler conditions expected for the rest of the day. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today, some 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
217 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 A cold front will advance into the region Monday into Monday night. This line of convection will track SE this morning, outrunning the sfc cold front. At the surface, a cold front will approach from the west.
253 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Weather pattern in place has an upper ridge over southern Canada and a broad upper trough over the southwest United States. The ridge injected drier air aloft into the forecast area, and this reflected by preciptable water values a half inch and less over southeast Montana, with higher values (0. The pattern will remain in place today but the upper ridge over the east will weaken trough the day. HREF members were trying to develop convection a little farther east off the foothills (as far east as Billings) this afternoon, and this seems reasonable as the upper ridge weakens.
1035 PM MDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Current surface analysis shows high pressure over ND, with frontal boundary located along the lee of the Rockies. Upper level analysis continues to show general blocking pattern in place, with high over southern SK, cutoff low across the southwest US, and a trough over the Great Lakes region. A few showers/thundershowers are noted over southern Campbell County and the higher terrain to the south and west. Relatively quiet weather is expected through the first half of the week as upper high to the north slides southeast into the region and weakens with time. Weak energy passing across to the southwest of the high should allow showers/storms to develop during the PM hours Monday across northeast WY and possibly the Black Hills.
Best chances will be across the higher terrain of the Southern Great Basin and northern Mojave Desert.
- Warmer temps in the 80s to low 90s return mid-week. Temperatures have fallen well below normal tonight as a large upper low churns over the Great Lakes, which has pushed a cool and dry Canadian airmass southward into the region. Warming trend still on track for mid-week as a upper ridging builds over the central conus.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft shifting slowly east through the South Plains. Meanwhile, a closed upper low is lifting northeast into the Great Basin. Near the surface, an area of high pressure is sinking south across the Dakotas into the Central Plains. With ample moisture/instability present, shower and thunderstorm development is expected as another round of H5 vort maxima eject out of the approaching closed upper low in conjunction with steepening mid-level lapse rates with any storms then moving eastward, potentially crossing into extreme southwest Kansas.
110 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 The cold front has moved through the area as have the strongest thunderstorms from this afternoon and evening. Instability is on the rise, with strong WAA behind the warm front to our north. Cold front remains out to the west, and should start developing additional convection west of the area soon. As mentioned in earlier discussions, cold front/cold pool driven storms may move a bit faster, so times can always change, so need to remain weather aware today. Main threat remains damaging wind gusts, but first strong storm of the afternoon went up fast just north of Nashville, and showed a strong hail signature, indicating that drier air aloft and steep lapse rates are indeed in place ahead of the cold front.
257 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue through today as a weak cold front crosses the area this afternoon.
338 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Sunny and warmer today with light winds again. Quiet weather continues across the state as a closed low remains quasi- stationary over the Great Lakes region and an upper ridge is parked over the central Canadian Plains. At the surface, a center of high pressure was located over the Dakotas and Nebraska. Today, the upper ridge will gradually shift south, bringing warmer 850mb temperatures with it. With mostly clear skies again, temperatures should be warmer than this past weekend as forecast highs range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
159 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 A deepening upper level closed low will drift southeastward over Michigan through the short term period. This will keep cyclonic flow across Indiana, with periods of clouds enhanced by vorticity maxima rotating within the broader closed low.
Warmer than yesterday with some wind. Chances for showers return this evening and overnight as upper level waves rotate around the closed low. Aloft, a closed low was centered over Lake Michigan, this low had a series of waves rotating around it that will drive the weather in the short term. CAMs are more aggressive than the spectral models, this is probably due to the mediocre lapse rates under the upper low.