Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This afternoon through Friday) High pressure will weaken and move east while a low pressure system moves towards the Ohio Valley through the Great Plains. A warm front will lift north beginning early morning Friday. the low will be mild with low to mid 50s expected. Friday the high temperature will be up to 10 degrees above normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
1231 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Dry weather can be expected today before rain returns Friday with a warm front.
1240 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 A warmer day is expected Thursday with afternoon high temperatures in the 70s. By Friday, our severe weather chances increase as an upper level trough brings the chance for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and small hail.
420 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 High pressure will remain over the region through this evening before shifting offshore tonight. A warm front will approach from the south Friday morning with rain chances increasing from west to east late Friday afternoon into Friday night.
259 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 High pressure moves offshore with a light southerly wind developing.
More clouds, wetter and cooler weather arrives by Friday and spans into the weekend as a series of weather systems move through the region, each with rounds of rain and snow. Update: Current visible, satellite, and radar show low pressure system slowly exiting to the southeast and currently centered somewhere near Idaho/Montana/Wyoming.
Strong lower tropospheric moisture advection is occurring ahead of this wave, enhanced by a high pressure area over the southeastern US, funneling moisture northward through the Plains. The low-level jet will strengthen overnight and as the area remains mixed, we'll likely see sustained wind of 15-25 mph with occasional gusts of 45 mph. There will also be a tornado risk as there is some cyclonic curvature in the low-level hodograph but the better risk for tornadoes will be to our east.
416 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 A high pressure tracks over the region this evening keeping conditions relatively calm.
Conditions improve on Friday into the weekend, becoming drier and warmer. Expect another uptick in activity this afternoon/evening for the higher elevations from Flagstaff to the Kaibab Plateau with showery precipitation expected across the remainder of the area before tapering off later tonight. For the highest elevations above 8000 feet, 8-12 inches is expected.
/12 (Now through Friday) A dry forecast is on tap through Friday! Upper level ridging builds overhead through tonight before shifting just east of our area on Friday with flow aloft becoming more southwesterly. At the surface, high pressure centered just off the mid Atlantic coast today will shift further east out into the Atlantic, with weak ridging extending back into our area. High temperatures on Friday will soar into the lower 80s for most areas, but upper 70s south of I-10 and along the coast (where there may even be a few locations that only make it to the mid 70s.
Currently - Robust high pressure center moving off the mid Atlantic coast is rapidly freshening northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters this evening. Short Term Update - Surface winds will inch further upwards over the next few hours as the high tightens the local pressure gradient further. Strong high pressure moving off the mid Atlantic coast will result in breezes continuing to freshen across Keys waters.
700 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 With warmer air moving into the area, we'll see some elevated showers and thunderstorms possible tonight. Currently, an upper ridge exists over the Midwest with an upper trough over the western U. A warm front extends from CO eastward through the Central Plains and into central IL this afternoon. The upper low over the Rockies on early Friday will move east into the Plains states, with a wave rounding the base of the low right over IA/MO/IL late in the day. Temperatures will be quite warm again tomorrow, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s before crashing with the cold front Friday night. Winds are expected to be breezy from the south on Friday, and becoming strong from the west with the cold front Friday night.
335 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023 The warm front extends this afternoon from near Buffalo to Faith to east of Philip and then to the north of Winner. Latest analysis shows the upper trough/low is currently located over western Wyoming/eastern Utah with strong warm advection occurring to the east of the upper trough and over the forecast area.
730 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 (Through Friday) Pleasant weather continues today under the influence of a ridge of high pressure, with temperatures climbing into the 70s for most this afternoon, with only some diurnal cumulus near the coast and St Johns River area. Northeast-east flow on the south side of the ridge today will keep temps a few degress cooler by the coast. A weak coastal trough may graze the Florida coast overnight before dissipating and moving north-northeastward through the day Friday, which will bring mainly a few more clouds to the coast and possibly a sprinkle or two in the morning.
Conditions improve on Friday into the weekend, becoming drier and warmer.
Models take the upper low eastward into WY by midnight and our CWA should dry out from the west overnight through Friday, although patchy fog will form in the valleys Friday morning.
The low cloud deck is expected to lift off across portions of the area later this evening. On Friday morning, a Pacific cold front will be moving through the area. This system brings dry air from the west and will push the low cloud deck away.
The upper ridge offshore transforms into a zonal flow pattern, then into a weak upper trough Friday afternoon.
445 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023 The warm front extends this afternoon from near Buffalo to Faith to east of Philip and then to the north of Winner. Latest analysis shows the upper trough/low is currently located over western Wyoming/eastern Utah with strong warm advection occurring to the east of the upper trough and over the forecast area.
830 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 A high pressure tracks over the region this evening keeping conditions relatively calm.
Most locations are within a degree or two of their likely overnight lows, as temperatures should rise late this evening and into early tomorrow morning as the low level jet continues to increase across the region. Toward daybreak, there may be some spotty shower and thunderstorm development within the low level jet, ahead of the approaching dryline, but more vigorous development remains expected late morning into early afternoon. The passing cold front Friday evening will bring a wind shift to fire suppression efforts with winds gradually decreasing after sunset.
725 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 (This afternoon through Friday Night) High pressure has shifted to our east and this is allowing for the onset of some return southerly flow.
The upper low has shifted over central California, with radar indication some lingering showers over the the northern Sierra south of US Highway 50.
Cooler than normal temperatures will linger through Friday with some frost from the Tucson area eastward early Friday morning.
Weekend: Dry and warmer conditions will prevail with light winds. 12z CAM guidance shows thunderstorms firing north of the warm front situated just to the northwest of the Tri-Cities. The highest chances for storms will be around 7-11pm. Chances for storms will end by midnight as a cold front begins to overtake the area. Temperatures will continue to fall behind a cold front with winds increasing during the morning hours and into the evening hours. Coverage of the showers is not expected to be widespread as the track of the low keeps the highest probabilities north of the area. The locations with the highest chances at seeing snow will be north of Interstate 80.
428 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Dry high pressure is in place across the area for today, with winds becoming more southeasterly through the day and a turn to the S/SW near the coast this afternoon. Highs will reach into the mid 80s to lower 90s this afternoon and lows Saturday morning moderating into the lower 60s to near 70 at the coast.
(Today) Active weather pattern expected today as strong upper low, currently just east of the Four Corners region, quickly swings into the central Plains. Areas northwest of Tulsa that have received little rainfall and are currently in extreme/ exceptional drought will have the highest fire weather danger.
High pressure will gradually shift east towards the coast resulting in southerly winds and moisture returning to the region. In response to increasing cloud cover, low temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. By Friday night, rain and thunderstorm chances will start increasing ahead of a cold front which is forecast to push through the state on Saturday.
900 PM PDT Thu Mar 30 2023 The storm which brought precipitation to the region is exiting to the east, so we'll see drier and warmer weather Friday and into the weekend.
This higher moisture, along with the addition of speed convergence, has led to the continual development of widely scattered showers across the forecast area overnight. High pressure centered along the Mid-Atlantic coast has continued to build into the region and winds have increased in response to the tightened gradient. Elevated winds will continue through tomorrow morning as high pressure quickly skirts eastward ahead of an approaching cold front.
Initial warm front lifting through the area this evening will allow for slowly rising temperatures overnight. A warm front will advance poleward over the next 12 hours, bringing a chance for rain showers later tonight and Friday morning. It is plausible there will be at least a few dry hours, midday, Friday as one lobe of moisture moves east and the second lobe awaits until the cold front blasts through late in the day. A 100+ knot jet a 500 mb will provide plenty of forcing aloft (50-60 knots at 840 mb), even as the surface cold front lags at the surface. The 12z HREF depicts a corridor of 1000-1500 j/kg of MUCAPE diminishing beyond 00z Saturday, leaving our area with 500- 750 j/kg to work with by the time the cold front arrives.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Current satellite shows mid and upper level clouds streaming over the area ahead of an upper level trough located over the western United States. The upper trough reaches the Great Plains tomorrow sending a Pacific front through the CWA early in the morning and spreading the current windy conditions west of the Pecos River, east to encompass all but the lower Big Bend. Cooler temperatures behind the front will keep highs close to normal for this time of year with readings generally in the 70s.
Weather conditions improve on Friday, becoming warmer and drier through the weekend. Warmer temperatures are expected on Friday with drier conditions as zonal flow develops.
231 AM MDT Fri Mar 31 2023 08z surface analysis had primary low pressure deepening over central NE courtesy of upper low spinning over central WY. Lift ahead of upper low on nose of 110kt jet streak evident on water vapour/IR loops with large precipitation shield intensifying per regional radar loop.
Psuedo warm front/isodrosothermal gradient extending from southeast Iowa to southern Illinois early this morning with southwest 50 to 60 knots low level jet impinging should aid in maintaining isolated/scattered elevated convection into CWA through the morning hours. Passage of secondary trough near daybreak Saturday to mark onslaught of strong cold air advection.
101 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 (Through Friday) Pleasant weather continues today under the influence of a ridge of high pressure, with temperatures climbing into the 70s for most this afternoon, with only some diurnal cumulus near the coast and St Johns River area. Northeast-east flow on the south side of the ridge today will keep temps a few degrees cooler by the coast. A weak coastal trough may graze the Florida coast overnight before dissipating and moving north-northeastward through the day Friday, which will bring mainly a few more clouds to the coast and possibly a sprinkle or two in the morning. (Friday night through Saturday night) The center of the high will move more toward the east Friday night into Saturday morning, as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Expect that a closed low with heights around 537 dm at 500 mb will be over northwest NE by daybreak Friday morning. The center of the low is likely to reach northeast NE by Friday evening. Strong low pressure center at the surface over the western high Plains will start to track eastward tonight. Center of the low could reach near the NE/SD/IA border by 12Z Friday. Strong southerly winds will occur ahead of the low over much of eastern NE and southwest IA tonight. Look for a big range of high temperatures Friday, from the lower 40s at the SD border to lower 70s at the MO border.
1050 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023 The warm front extends this afternoon from near Buffalo to Faith to east of Philip and then to the north of Winner. Latest analysis shows the upper trough/low is currently located over western Wyoming/eastern Utah with strong warm advection occurring to the east of the upper trough and over the forecast area.
(Tonight) Warmer and more humid air continues to spill Nwd across NCntrl LA and SW AR this evening, but a sharp theta-e gradient still bisects the CWA with the drier air still hanging on generally E of a DEQ/TXK. Actually have seen some streamer -SHRA along the leading edge of the higher theta-e air across Wrn LA this evening, with additional -SHRA with isolated -TSRA spilling E across E TX along/S of the I-20 corridor, associated with a weak perturbation embedded in the SW flow aloft.
Overnight lows will range from the lower 60s across the interior, to around 70 close to the coasts. There will be enough instability to result in an isolated thunderstorm or two, but overall thunderstorm potential will be suppressed due to a mid- level ridge building over the Florida. With the mid-level ridge taking precedence over the area for Friday, shower chances will be significantly lower tomorrow. For tomorrow, similar temperatures are expected but perhaps a couple degrees warmer.
Moisture quickly returns this evening with a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. Gusty winds are expected throughout the region with the passage of the cold front on Saturday. Most of the high resolution models show the cold front passing during the afternoon but a few do show an earlier frontal passage. Winds are forecast to become westerly throughout the vertical profile behind the cold front, that along with sufficient moisture is a good setup for banded snow showers.
452 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 (Today through Saturday) Today will be warm as the CWA sits beneath an upper-level ridge, while mid-level and upper-level clouds increase ahead of a long- wave trough traversing the Rockies. Convection could become reinvigorated across portions of central GA on Saturday afternoon due to the combination of destabilization and convergence along the cold front and/or outflow boundary from the QLCS.
Most locations are within a degree or two of their likely overnight lows, as temperatures should rise late this evening and into early tomorrow morning as the low level jet continues to increase across the region. Toward daybreak, there may be some spotty shower and thunderstorm development within the low level jet, ahead of the approaching dryline, but more vigorous development remains expected late morning into early afternoon.
300 AM MDT Fri Mar 31 2023 As the trough axis passes to the east over the Front Range, snow showers will continue in the trailing northwest flow mainly along the western Colorado divide.
Most troughs and ridges are currently being moved around this anchor point in the flow. spolit flow has set up over the eastern third of the CONUS with the ridge across British Columbia, Idaho, and Washington while the trough base is ejecting through the Four Corners. However, with temperatures breaking above freezing for highs int he southwest today there may be sufficient moisture to bring back fog tonight during the normal hours of 3 to 10 AM.
531 AM MDT Fri Mar 31 2023 08z surface analysis had primary low pressure deepening over central NE courtesy of upper low spinning over central WY. Lift ahead of upper low on nose of 110kt jet streak evident on water vapour/IR loops with large precipitation shield intensifying per regional radar loop.
Cooler than normal temperatures will linger today.
553 AM MDT Fri Mar 31 2023 As the trough axis passes to the east over the Front Range, snow showers will continue in the trailing northwest flow mainly along the western Colorado divide.
Saturday's highs will be a few degrees cooler across the Rio Grande Plains, courtesy of the boundary.
Mean-layer ridging centered over Mexico bulges northeast across the Yucatan, the Gulf, and Florida. High pressure off the Mid- Atlantic coast will maintain moderate to fresh breezes through tonight. Breezes will veer to the east to southeast then slacken Saturday afternoon as high pressure moves eastward.
(Today through Saturday) Today will be warm as the CWA sits beneath an upper-level ridge, while mid-level and upper-level clouds increase ahead of a long- wave trough traversing the Rockies. Convection could become reinvigorated across portions of central GA on Saturday afternoon due to the combination of destabilization and convergence along the cold front and/or outflow boundary from the QLCS.
Temperatures are on track to reach the low 80s near and east of Interstate 95 with warmer locations across the interior reaching the mid to upper 80s.
Dry high pressure is in place across the area for today, with winds becoming more southeasterly through the day and a turn to the S/SW near the coast this afternoon. Highs will reach into the mid 80s to lower 90s this afternoon and lows Saturday morning moderating into the lower 60s to near 70 at the coast.
A complex forecast continues today as a strong upper low deepens and tracks east across the central Plains. Temperatures south of this front have remained very warm overnight with readings as of 3 am still in the lower to mid 60s with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s. This drives a surface cold front through the forecast area through the late morning and into the early afternoon.
616 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 (Today) Active weather pattern expected today as strong upper low, currently just east of the Four Corners region, quickly swings into the central Plains. Areas northwest of Tulsa that have received little rainfall and are currently in extreme/ exceptional drought will have the highest fire weather danger.
The forecast area lies under northwest flow aloft, with a very weak ridge passing overhead.
The upper low currently seen on water vapor spinning along the Neb/SD border will shift off into the Great Lakes tonight. Reports have been a mix of thundersleet and thunder freezing rain, and any precip reaching the ground in our far southern counties looks look it will at least be a wintery mix at first. However, any freezing rain (or rain freezing later tonight) will create even more of a mess than straight snow.
(Tonight through Friday) The strong upper level low responsible for today's severe/fire weather will continue to move off to the east toward the Great Lakes region Saturday.
(This evening through Saturday) Late this afternoon, much drier air is being advected into west central Texas behind a Pacific cold front. Strong west winds will continue through late this afternoon and early evening until high pressure starts to fill in across west Texas. Tonight, skies look to remain clear with light winds as high pressure continues to build in. Given the sunny skies expected and the potential for quick airmass recovery, high temperatures tomorrow should reach the upper 70s across the Big Country and the low 80s for areas further south.
Lusk (Today through Saturday) Today will be warm as the CWA sits beneath an upper-level ridge, while mid-level and upper-level clouds increase ahead of a long- wave trough traversing the Rockies. Convection could become reinvigorated across portions of central GA on Saturday afternoon due to the combination of destabilization and convergence along the cold front and/or outflow boundary from the QLCS.
357 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Key Points: * Have expanded the high wind warning to include areas west of highway 65. Expect strongest winds to last through sunset, though wind advisory winds are expected to continue through the overnight as cold front moves through and winds shift more out of the northwest.
In this analysis we also see the rapidly deepening surface cyclone located near South Dakota and Minnesota. Temperatures along the island chain are in the low to mid 80s with dew points near 70. As the high pressure continues its track east, it will lose its influence over the Keys. At the same time, a cold front associated with the previously mentioned surface cyclone will advect south, into the Florida Peninsula.
Damaging winds and several tornadoes remain the highest threats, including a couple of strong and long- tracked tornadoes possible.
242 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 A mid/upper trough moving over the Central and Northern Plains today is progged to move eastward over the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley area today and tonight before emerging over the Great Lakes area early on Saturday. This will result in continued breezy west/northwest winds tonight although speeds will continue to gradually subside through the period, becoming light on Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the area.
Quiet and nice weather is expected on Saturday with plenty of sunshine and highs in the low to mid 70s across North Texas and upper 70s to low 80s for Central Texas.
Tyler is 80/67 and SW like many of our sites in the lower 80s and gusty SW winds 20-30KT for an average.
Convective instability, with scattered to numerous intense snow showers, has developed near and to the east of the upper low, with abundant moisture continuing to rotate northward and westward into western South Dakota. 08z surface analysis had primary low pressure deepening over central NE courtesy of upper low spinning over central WY. Lift ahead of upper low on nose of 110kt jet streak evident on water vapor/IR loops with large precipitation shield intensifying per regional radar loop.
303 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 18z surface data has strong low pressure in western Iowa between KSLB and KCIN. The warm front ran east from the storm across northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin. The strong cold front ran south from the low through western Missouri. Dew points were in the 50s and 60s east of the low into the Ohio Valley. Dew points in the 20s and 30s were behind the cold front in the Plains. Through 8 PM severe storms along the cold front will sweep through the area. Behind the cold front winds will increase considerably overnight.
235 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The convective bands that continue to move north on the east side of the upper low have been slower to progress than initially forecast. Weak return flow and weak ridging aloft develop on Saturday. This will push temperatures into the lower 30s across fresh snow pack with some lower 40s possible across Corson and Dewey counties where much less snow fell today.
1157 AM MDT Fri Mar 31 2023 As the trough axis passes to the east over the Front Range, snow showers will continue in the trailing northwest flow mainly along the western Colorado divide.
Things look to turn active with a cold front moving in late Saturday with rainshowers. Most troughs and ridges are currently being moved around this anchor point in the flow. Split flow has set up over the eastern third of the CONUS with the ridge across British Columbia, Idaho, and Washington while the trough base is ejecting through the Four Corners. However, with temperatures breaking above freezing for highs int he southwest today there may be sufficient moisture to bring back fog tonight during the normal hours of 3 to 10 AM.