Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The smoke has probably only had a slight cooling effect on temps as readings to the south have still reached into the lower 70s. The bigger impact on temps has been a cold front which has pushed slowly southward through the fcst area today. Under partly cloudy skies, expect min temps mostly in the lower to mid 40s. High pressure will shift into New England and the Canadian Maritimes tonight with southerly return flow developing across the area. Upper support with the passage of the cold front should be enough to force at least a broken band of precipitation that will move north to south Tuesday evening.
The high will slide farther east through today with a light southerly wind returning, but stable and dry airmass will keep any eastward advancement of high plains convection at bay until tonight.
First up is the back-door wedge front continuing to push south across the area, courtesy of strong high pressure forcing cool air down the leeward side of the Appalachians.
(Today through Tuesday Night) After yesterday's cooler than normal temperatures, we will begin to turn up the thermostat as winds shift from the east to southeast through the short term.
The low levels remain rather dry with lower 60s dewpoints in most areas. Mid/upper moisture will overspread the area today in association with this disturbance and may even result in periodic radar echoes, though at least initially these will struggle to reach the surface due to the lower level dry layer. /DL/ A cooler and drier pattern is in store for the forecast period as persistent troughing and an upper low aid in northerly flow across the area. This should keep things dry for much of the period and temperatures should cooler than we have been recently. 5+ inches) associated with a low pressure system across eastern portions of the area should keep at least some rain chances around Tuesday. As this low exits to the east, dry air will wrap around the backside leading to dry conditions.
That area is favored for greater surface convergence as the decaying backdoor cold front morphs into a hybrid differential heating/lake breeze pressure trough in Lower Mi. The mild start then sets the stage for the warmest day of the week as readings reach into the lower 80s by mid afternoon. The temperature surge is boosted in a common fashion ahead of the next cold front moving down from northern Ontario.
Warmer conditions likely for the holiday weekend. It will be another dry and pleasant day across the region today as high pressure shifts eastward. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, topping out in the upper 70s and possibly touching 80 in some locations.
Another pleasant day Monday to start the work week, with temperatures a few degrees warmer than today. This will keep lows several degrees warmer than in previous days only dropping into the lower 50s. mostly sunny skies, light south wind, and low dewpoints will boost afternoon temps into the lower 80s. building upper level high in the central Plains will bring continued dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Dry soils and dry surface conditions will bring large diurnal temperature swings as much as 28 degrees from Monday night lows in the middle 50s to Tuesday highs in the low 80s.
Turning to non-smoke forecast issues, looks like we'll be rather warm today and Tuesday as the upper level ridge builds across the Northern Plains.
The Keys are situated in a col like region, with developing low pressure just northeast of the Bahamas, and ridging to our west. In other words, the western Atlantic High, which usually drives easterly winds this time of year, has been displaced by troughing off the eastern seaboard. This basic pattern will persist over the next several days as low pressure slowly works its way northward along the east coast. By tomorrow, winds will begin to organize out of the west to northwest as the low pulls farther away and weak ridging in the Gulf becomes more of an influence.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed high pressure stretch from the mid-MS Valley to the OH Valley. A meandering weak cold front was situated just north of the WI/MI border. Visible satellite imagery indicated a band of mid clouds behind the cold front, as well as an elevated smoke layer that continues to drift southeast across northeast WI. Still cannot rule out some sprinkles across northern WI this evening with the cold front in the vicinity. This would place min temperatures in the lower to middle 40s north, upper 40s to lower 50s south. Look for max temperatures to range from the middle to upper 60s near Lake MI, to the lower to middle 70s inland.
High amplitude ridging over the northern Rockies will shift eastward the next several days dragging the aforementioned weak low pressure systems into the plains. H5 heights will hover in a 578-582dm range under weak ridging through the next 72 hours with numerical guidance spread extremely narrow and highlighting temperatures in a slightly above normal range (i. During the latter half of the week, a piece of the California trough should edge inland with H5 heights retreating into a 572-578dm range in cyclonic flow and offering a few degrees cooling close to the seasonal normal. Similarly, overnight recovery should fall into a poor to fair range of 20-50% with the higher end of the range over mountains of eastern districts. These releases will continue to impact unbridged crossings with multiple roads reportedly closed due to flooding.
Currently, a broad upper level ridge is situated to our west with the axis centered over central Montana. The ridge axis will gradually approach the Montana/North Dakota border late this afternoon and move directly overhead tonight into Tuesday. Finally, a subtle weak wave will ride down the eastern slope of the ridge this afternoon and evening which could spark a few sprinkles over the James River Valley. Moving into tonight, a weak upper low will try to flatten the ridge briefly.
859 PM PDT Sun May 21 2023 The weather will settle down for the work week with significantly cooler temperatures and far less moisture. Evening update: An upper trough is now pushing into the region which is bringing breezy winds to the Cascades with cooler, drier, and more stable air pushing into Central Washington. Cold advection behind the cold front is also delivering breezy to locally windy conditions near the Cascades. Winds will be locally breezy especially near the Cascades as cooler air moves into the region.
1221 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Slightly below average temperatures continue today, with highs this afternoon in the lower to upper 70s across the CWA. Tonight, temps will drop to the lower 50s to lower 60s.
As the low north of the Bahamas begins to spin up and strong high pressure moves across New England and the Canadian Maritimes the tightening pressure gradient will develop and northeaster north of the frontal boundary.
245 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023 Control, copy paste our weather again the next two days with high pressure remaining in control.
1111 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 A backdoor cold front works south across New England late tonight and across the area Monday morning. The front likely stalls across the Lower Hudson Valley. High pressure will be in control Monday night into Tuesday.
Given the lighter winds paired with the strong thermal gradient between the cooler Lake Michigan and warm inland temps, expecting another lake breeze to develop and push inland through the afternoon and early evening again. Mostly clear conditions with lighter winds will continue overnight and temps are looking to bottom out in the lower 50s with maybe a fewer low-lying spots dipping into the upper 40s given favorable conditions radiational cooling conditions. However with the upper-level ridge axis pushing further east, expect warmer, more widespread daytime temps topping off in the 80s for Tuesday with another afternoon lake breeze. Overnight temps will be a bit warmer as well.
Discussion: The short term will feature weak flow aloft across the deep south, with upper troughing over the Pacific NW and eastern Canada. An H85 ridge will be positioned over the central and northern Appalachians today, with easterly flow coming across the NC/TN mountains into the forecast area.
139 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the upcoming week.
410 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 Current synoptic setup across the region consists of broad ridging over Ontario and Quebec and a stationary frontal boundary just to the south over northern Wisconsin.
1151 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023 High pressure will maintain VFR conditions with just varying degrees of cirrus over the next 24-30 hours. For tonight models show a very weak, dampened mid to upper level trough squeezing across the Great Lakes. No tangible geostrophic or gradient flow with the feature which allows a surface convergence to thermal trough set up directly over Southeast Michigan. The thermal trough will modestly increase in strength on Monday with daytime heating. Pattern recognition suggests temperatures may overachieve rising into the lower 80s for most areas.
Temperatures will warm for the interior valleys Monday with breezy westerly winds keeping coastal areas cooler. After Tuesday, an upper level trough leads to a cooldown with highs in the 60s and 70s.
By the end of the week, an inverted trough is overhead while another frontal boundary propagates through at the surface.
931 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 A sprawling high pressure across Quebec is the main influence on the weather here in the Ohio Valley and this means quiet weather under weak northerly flow. High pressure will be in control of area weather during the short term and beyond based on the latest model data. With high pressure in charge, we can still expect above normal daytime highs today and tomorrow. There will be some ridge valley temperature differences this morning and tonight, but nothing overly pronounced. High pressure will be in place for the vast majority of the forecast period. Under the regime of high pressure, dry weather and sunny skies are expected with generally light northerly winds.
430 AM PDT Mon May 22 2023 The weather will be relatively quieter through the work week with cooler temperatures and less moisture. Today through Tuesday night: Compact upper level low center remains within close proximity to the British Columbia Border through Tuesday. The upper level low is shifted a bit more to the north Tuesday thus allowing for less overhang over the northern portions of Eastern Washington and North Idaho so the pops for showers and thunderstorms look to remain north of I-90 both days and shifted slightly more to the north on Tuesday.
At the surface the low level flow is very light, which should allow for a sea/lake breeze to develop.
Upper ridge will flatten today, as trough moves through the Pac NW. Increasing mid-level westerly flow with the flattening of the ridge will push moisture and thunderstorm chances east of the Sierra into Nevada this afternoon. Upper low dropping south into Oregon will gradually deepen the trough over NorCal Tuesday and remaining in place through the end of the week.
609 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure will allow for VFR conditions to prevail through this TAF period. That area is favored for greater surface convergence as the decaying backdoor cold front morphs into a hybrid differential heating/lake breeze pressure trough in Lower Mi. The mild start then sets the stage for the warmest day of the week as readings reach into the lower 80s by mid afternoon. The temperature surge is boosted in a common fashion ahead of the next cold front moving down from northern Ontario.
A gradual cooling trend is on the way by midweek as a cut-off low enters the region. Potential for unsettled, cooler weather lasts through the holiday weekend. An elongating trough along the Pacific Northwest coast is advecting inland this morning. Mineral and Mono counties have chances for showers around 30-40%, with the highest of these chances in eastern Mineral County.
In general, conditions are much cooler than they have been over the last several days as a frontal boundary continues to push inland. Temperatures are expected to be cooler as well.
501 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 Dry, seasonable conditions will continue under high pressure for a large portion of the forecast period.
650 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure will dominate the weather in the Ohio Valley for the next several days.
432 AM PDT Mon May 22 2023 Temperatures will warm for the interior valleys Monday with breezy westerly winds keeping coastal areas cooler. After Tuesday, an upper level trough leads to a cooldown with highs in the 60s and 70s.
948 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure builds in from the north today in the wake of a cold front, setting up another dry period of weather early this week with seasonable high temperatures and cool overnight lows.
725 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure will be in control of area weather during the short term and beyond based on the latest model data. With high pressure in charge, we can still expect above normal daytime highs today and tomorrow. There will be some ridge valley temperature differences this morning and tonight, but nothing overly pronounced. High pressure will be in place for the vast majority of the forecast period. Under the regime of high pressure, dry weather and sunny skies are expected with generally light northerly winds.
454 AM MDT Mon May 22 2023 Upper low moving into the Pacific Northwest/southern BC will push the upper ridge eastward today. Today will be the warmest day of the week with the ridge overhead and compressional heating ahead of a front/lee trof. Cooling aloft with the slight eastward push of the upper low will result in instability over central Montana to drive thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Upper trof remains anchored over the Pacific Northwest through the remainder of the week, while digging southward.
1025 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 Surface observations are showing temperatures in the lower 80s at this time of the morning, highs today are expected to peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
At present, prevailing weather conditions across the island chain are characterized as mostly clear and dry, with temperature readings ranging from the upper 70s to the low 80s.
236 AM PDT Mon May 22 2023 The weather will be relatively quieter through the work week with cooler temperatures and less moisture. Today through Tuesday night: Compact upper level low center remains within close proximity to the British Columbia Border through Tuesday. The upper level low is shifted a bit more to the north Tuesday thus allowing for less overhang over the northern portions of Eastern Washington and North Idaho so the pops for showers and thunderstorms look to remain north of I-90 both days and shifted slightly more to the north on Tuesday.
624 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Short term forecast remains rather quiet with briefly zonal mid- level flow today before ridging builds tomorrow. As the ridge builds tomorrow, deep layer moisture will decrease and will see mainly sunny skies.
736 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 Current synoptic setup across the region consists of broad ridging over Ontario and Quebec and a stationary frontal boundary just to the south over northern Wisconsin.
607 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure building into the area will be the dominate weather feature through mid-week bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
624 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night) After yesterday's cooler than normal temperatures, we will begin to turn up the thermostat as winds shift from the east to southeast through the short term.
1019 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure building into the area will be the dominate weather feature through mid-week bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
614 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night ) Cloud cover overnight has kept temps a few deg warmer than seen yesterday morning.
500 mb temps will be cooler today between -8C and -10C.
Low pressure tracking southward along the coast Monday and Tuesday will bring a cooling trend and the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms over the interior mountains. Quiet weather conditions remains across the region with high pressure flattening today as an upper trough moves through the Pacific NW. The aforementioned upper trough will slowly dig southward over the West Coast on Tuesday.
High pressure overhead will create a couple of more days of unseasonably warm conditions. A weak ridge of high pressure is holding on across central California and continues to produce unseasonably warm conditions. On Tuesday a developing trough of low pressure pushing into the west coast will begin to displace the ridge, As the ridge weakens and southwesterly onshore flow develops ahead of the trough, temperatures will begin to trend downward.
542 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure ridging southwest into IL through Tuesday night will continue dry weather, with mostly sunny skies and fairly light winds prevailing.
537 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023 (Monday through Tuesday) Very weak upper trough is currently moving ovhd attm and it will be taking the mid and high level cloud cover with it.
414 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure ridging southwest into IL through Tuesday night will continue dry weather, with mostly sunny skies and fairly light winds.
723 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 Dry, seasonable conditions will continue under high pressure for a large portion of the forecast period.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening across northern Arizona, especially over the higher terrain.
Water vapor shows a weak and broad upper level low near Baja with another deeper low moving into the Pacific Northwest. During the work week the trough in the Pacific Northwest will slowly move southward putting Arizona in dry southwest flow.
721 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure builds in from the north today in the wake of a cold front, setting up another dry period of weather early this week with seasonable high temperatures and cool overnight lows.
All is quiet in the neighborhood tonight, as high pressure covers the region, and skies are only dealing with thin cirrus. Temperatures as of 2 AM are mainly in the lower to mid 50s. Our stretch of high pressure days with very slow moderation of temperatures remains in place. Return flow and very deep mixing profiles on(possibly up to H8 MB) will make for a warming day up into the low to mid 80s for much of the area.
942 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 High pressure will dominate the weather in the Ohio Valley for the next several days.
654 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023 Control, copy, and paste our weather again the next two days with high pressure remaining in control.
128 PM PDT Mon May 22 2023 Temperatures will begin to trend cooler on Tuesday with highs around 4 to 8 degrees above normal for late May.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening across northern Arizona, especially over the higher terrain along and north of the Mogollon Rim.
254 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023 General high pressure at the surface stretching from the Canadian Maritimes to the Ozarks, with a slight weakness in the ridge from Pennsylvania to Kentucky, will keep winds light tonight under partly cloudy skies. Low temperatures will be just a couple degrees cooler than normal, in the 50s.
134 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023 Dry, seasonable conditions are expected this week with high pressure in control. Dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures today and tonight as broad ridging over the central CONUS slowly transitions east. For Tuesday, slightly warmer and moist conditions could prompt spotty shower activity if conditions permit (boundary layer convergence).
Tuesdays highs are expected to reach the lower to middle 80s for areas north of Highway 200, with middle to upper 80s to the south. The pattern at the start of the period is an upper level ridge over western ND and eastern MT with northwest flow aloft. The upper ridge gradually shifts east through the period and will see warmer than normal temperatures across the region through the period, with mainly east to southeasterly winds.
This should shift the inverted trough axis a bit further east from its current position. This could provide for quite a gradient in moisture east of this inverted trough axis. In the end, all of these influences should position the inverted trough axis near or just east of the AL/MS border later in the afternoon. Further west will be the focus for convection along the inverted trough axis much of the afternoon.
WV imagery and visible satellite indicate a weak upper level low shifting slowly east through southwest Kansas. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure extends south from extreme southeastern Colorado into the western Texas Panhandle. Near the surface, prevailing southeasterly upsloping will reinforce a pool of increased moisture across the area with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s(F) to the lower 60s(F), resulting in sufficient instability with highest MLCAPE values upward of 1000 to 1500 J/kg in areas farther south near and along the Oklahoma border. Fairly seasonal temperatures are expected tonight with prevailing southeasterlies supporting surface dewpoints holding in the lower/mid 50s(F). Look for lows ranging from the mid/upper 50s(F) for much of the area with the lower 60s(F) possible in south central Kansas. With some partial clearing Tuesday, expect afternoon highs generally up into the lower/mid 70s(F).
This will help to build 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE for the afternoon with the highest CAPE west of I-24 and south of I-40. If storms overcome that dry air it will enhance the mid- level lapse rates and we will have to watch out for the potential for some gusty winds mainly as thunderstorms collapse in this low shear environment.
1248 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Short term forecast remains rather quiet with briefly zonal mid- level flow today before ridging builds tomorrow. As the ridge builds tomorrow, deep layer moisture will decrease and will see mainly sunny skies.
1152 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023 Dry, seasonable conditions are expected this week with high pressure in control. Dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures today and tonight as broad ridging over the central CONUS slowly transitions east. For Tuesday, slightly warmer and moist conditions could prompt spotty shower activity if conditions permit (boundary layer convergence).
These lower MVFR ceilings will clear out later this afternoon as drier air filters through the lower sections of the atmosphere.
/NF/ Quiet conditions should begin to settle across most of the CWA starting late Tuesday night as the low pressure system continues to track east towards Georgia and portions of South Carolina.
Inland portions of northern IL will continue to warm into the lower 80 this afternoon, though a lake breeze will keep temperatures much cooler along the lakeshore areas. Another lake breeze is expected in the afternoon, so expect cooler weather near the lake again. KJB The main weather story during the period will be the turn towards a cooler weather pattern for the second half of the week.
A sprawling high pressure across Quebec is the main influence on the weather here in the Ohio Valley and this means quiet weather under weak northerly flow. High pressure will be in control of area weather during the short term and beyond based on the latest model data. With high pressure in charge, we can still expect above normal daytime highs today and tomorrow. There will be some ridge valley temperature differences this morning and tonight, but nothing overly pronounced. High pressure will be in place for the vast majority of the forecast period. Under the regime of high pressure, dry weather and sunny skies are expected with generally light northerly winds.