Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With the upper low moving eastward and ridging building across New Mexico, northwesterly flow is expected to return aloft. The window for storms will dwindle with the setting sun and cooler surface temperatures.
(Today through Wednesday Night ) The upper ridge over the southeast U. will flatten out today as a result of an upper trough pushing south along the eastern U. An upper low will move through the Plains Wednesday. Over the west, an upper low will remain over that area. A cold front will move through Arkansas today and bring slightly cooler and slightly drier air. Small rain chances continue on Wednesday, but another cold front will move into northeast Arkansas Wednesday night with drier air. High temperatures today will be in the lower 70s to upper 80s and highs Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
For locales with cloud cover, highs will still be much warmer in the mid 70's, but not as warm as the rest of the area which could push 80.
Northwesterly flow ahead of the next mid- level trough will help foster dry conditions through today and evening.
Tonight and Tuesday High pressure will gradually shift out of the region throughout the night and into Tuesday morning. Dry air associated with this high will allow clear skies to prevail during this time.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through Wednesday as a weak cold front moves across the Mid-South.
Discussion: For the last several days, widespread ridging has been in place across the southeast, centered over MS/AL with localized NW flow over the local area. The ridge itself has helped to suppress widespread convection, despite abundant instability and moisture. However, upper-level flow has allowed several impulses to produce scattered convection across the backside of the 'dirty ridge', moving NNW to SSE. On Wednesday, A planetary trough extending from a deep upper-low in Eastern Canada will be digging across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwestern regions which will open the door for a dry continental airmass to push into the same regions by Wednesday afternoon. this surge of high pressure will push a weak frontal system through the forecast area, and focus the corridor of higher moisture into Southern Georgia.
1138 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 Periodic chances for showers and isolated storms will be possible through tomorrow as a low pressure area slowly drifts across southern Illinois. Barnes A low pressure area will slowly drift from southern MO into southern IL by later tonight, and then into the lower OH valley tomorrow through tomorrow night. Higher pops will be closer to the low with northern areas of the CWA likely not seeing any precip through the period. The highest QPF will be during the 12hrs from midnight through noon tomorrow. However, slightly cooler air will move into the area behind the low, and overnight lows Tue night are expected to be around 50. Auten Dry weather and seasonable temps are expected Wed through Thur as high pressure dominates the area.
The quiet conditions will not continue for too much longer as height falls overspread the region with an approaching upper-level trough.
A weak trailing cold front will move southeast in response. This will locally enhance low-level shear in these areas which is where the low tornado risk will exist for any supercells that develop. The surface cold front will continue to surge southward with drier air beginning to filter in from the north by 12z Wednesday.
Water vapor imagery highlights a weak upper low over the eastern Bahamas and generally sinking air in its wake across the forecast area. Northeast to east winds have slowly been weakening overnight as high pressure off the Carolina Coast progresses eastward. Temperatures along the island chain are generally in the upper 70s, and dewpoints are in the lower 70s. If higher moisture sticks around, there is a possibility of the development of a cumulus cloud line along the Lower Keys, which would aid in shower and possible waterspout development. Should the low levels of the atmosphere remain moist enough, yet another cumulus cloud line may form in the vicinity of the terminals late this morning or this afternoon.
1252 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Current surface analysis has our cold front analyzed across the Edwards Plateau, extending back west through the Big Bend over into the Davis Mtns/Marfa Plateau corridor. A slow clearing of cloud cover through tomorrow morning, outside the Lower Trans Pecos where clouds will likely linger.
342 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Key Messages: * Clearing and warmer today. Even warmer on Wednesday.
Overall a messy ridge will result in above normal temps early this week before a cold front drops temps back to normal late in the week. Moisture values remain above normal, so moderate rainfall is possible along the cold front Wednesday afternoon/evening. By this weekend temps will begin to rise in earnest as more amplified/organized ridging develops over the western US. There is a chance of thunderstorms across the area and with warmer temps/drier air gusty winds are likely with any thunderstorms that develop. A cold front passes through Wednesday afternoon/evening, with widespread rain and thunderstorms likely along the front.
Water vapour had leftover upper trough from MN to southeast MT with lazy weak circulation centered over the CWA. Today/tonight, weak upper trough/low drifts south as disturbance drops into central Canada. This will push lee trough eastward, which will be the focus for 500J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon/early evening over northeast WY/far southwest SD. Wednesday, upper low moves into ND with trailing trough into MT. It will push cold front into the CWA fairly early in the day with early onset to convection expected per CAMS. Effective bulk shear may be enhanced near the cold front/Black Hills, so it is conceivable that a couple of brief strong/isolated severe storms could develop given forecast buoyancy.
345 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Discussion/Marine/FireWeather -- Dry Cold Front Today -- A large upper level low situated over north eastern Canada will dictate the weather pattern today. This upper level low will move southward driving a cold front across Michigan this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, expect for the afternoon highs to range from the upper 70s to the low to mid 80s while overnight lows into Wednesday morning trend in the 60s area wide. Wednesday is expected to be a quieter day where rain chances drop from the forecast across the majority of South-Central Texas given the drier atmospheric profile with continued northerly flow aloft and the building in of mid-level ridging from the west.
- Cooler weekend (Fri-Sat) on tap, but trending dry for a change. This is on the high end of the guidance, with blends favoring dewpoints more in the lower 50s. As for moisture, there is a ribbon of 850 mb transport ahead of the surface front, but the low level jet is focused much farther north. * FRI-WEEKEND: cooler Upper level trough takes over for the upcoming weekend, ushering in cooler air. Highs Fri-Sat generally around 70 degrees or cooler favored at this time.
(Today through Wednesday) More of the same summer-like weather will persist into Tuesday despite the mid-level ridging gradually waning.
Isolated showers and storms will remain possible through the morning, but main activity will be this afternoon as a fairly potent cold front sweeps southeastward through the region.
Moisture continues to move into Arizona from the east and southeast, as high pressure strengthens and assumes a favorable position near the Four Corners. The stronger high pressure will only be a temporary thing, weakening this afternoon and Tuesday. This means that Tuesday likely to be even more active as the high weakens further and PW continues to increase, PoPs may actually peak on Tuesday and Wednesday, but only slightly decreasing by the end of the week. This persistent pattern will be enhanced by low pressure setting up over the Gulf of California, which will set up low-level southerly flow across the gulf waters. Scattered showers and storms will persist from late morning into the early evening, mainly over the higher terrain.
This coupled with persistent WAA from the Gulf will support increasing chances for showers and storms today, maximizing during the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a cold front.
(Today) Upper trough axis/sfc front continue to move away from the area this morning. Drier air will settle over the area today as high pressure builds into the region.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) This morning an upper ridge extends from Srn NV/CA eastward to the Atlantic Coast as a trough extends from the Great Lakes down through MO and AR. This trough will expand down across E TX today then drift east into LA Wednesday. Also on Wednesday a low off of Baja will deepen into a closed low as it wobbles south. Temperatures today are expected to be very similar to yesterday with highs in the lower 80s across the Permian Basin with higher values from SE NM down through the Upper Trans Pecos. Pops decrease tonight then return Wednesday over the higher elevations from SE NM down across the mtns to the Rio Grande.
403 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Low pressure passing south over WV could bring a brief period of light rain this afternoon and early evening, mainly south of I-70. A moisture-starved cold front will drop south across the region overnight. While no precipitation is expected with frontal passage, cold advection behind the boundary should keep temperatures on the cooler side of normal by a few degrees on Wednesday. Radiational cooling with clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures overnight to drop into the 30s, possibly freezing north of I80. Dewpoints in the lower 20s should preclude any frost formation.
As a low pressure system moves off to our northwest, a high pressure system builds in its wake. The low pressure system that initiated the southerlies that brought stratus from the south along the North Coast has moved off to the northwest of the region. A weak high pressure system has built in as the low exited. This weak high will also help stave off a low pressure system out in the Northeastern Pacific.
726 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Low pressure passing south over WV could bring a brief period of light rain this afternoon and early evening, mainly south of I-70. A moisture-starved cold front will drop south across the region overnight. While no precipitation is expected with frontal passage, cold advection behind the boundary should keep temperatures on the cooler side of normal by a few degrees on Wednesday. Radiational cooling with clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures overnight to drop into the 30s, possibly freezing north of I80. Dewpoints in the lower 20s should preclude any frost formation.
535 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 (Today) Upper trough axis/sfc front continue to move away from the area this morning. Drier air will settle over the area today as high pressure builds into the region.
652 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through Wednesday as a weak cold front moves across the Mid-South.
Key Messages: * Clearing and warmer today. Even warmer on Wednesday.
305 AM MDT Tue May 16 2023 Satellite imagery continues to show a weakening upper high over south central Canada, with a broad area of low pressure over the Pacific northwest this morning. We will continue to be under the influence of this weakening upper high early today with mostly clear skies and temperatures warming into the upper 70s and lower 80s. With good daytime heating, accompanied with some weak energy moving in from the low to the west, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible (30-60% chance) over the mountains and central zones (Billings) this afternoon and evening. The initial cold front will pass through mid-day Wednesday with showers ending generally by the afternoon, although some light rain showers may persist into the evening hours. Wednesday will be cooler with considerable cloudiness.
Southern Oregon and far northern California will see warm and mostly dry weather today, with the departing trough to the northeast and ridging overhead.
The moist airmass moved into Arizona over the weekend and remains trapped under a weak flow regime mainly dominated by high pressure spread across much of the western U. High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal, while low temperatures will run warmer than normal thanks to the moisture and increased cloud cover. A weak area of low pressure currently off the California/Baja coast is forecast to track eastward and along the Mexico border later this week and through the weekend.
648 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 An area of low pressure will move just south of the region today bringing showers and some thunderstorms to the region. High pressure and dry conditions will be present for the middle of the week.
743 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Aviation/FireWeather -- Dry Cold Front Today -- A large upper level low situated over north eastern Canada will dictate the weather pattern today. This upper level low will move southward driving a cold front across Michigan this afternoon and evening.
635 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 (Today through Wednesday) More of the same summer-like weather will persist into Tuesday despite the mid-level ridging gradually waning.
(Now through Wednesday) Rain chances will be on the rise this week as the upper ridge continues to slowly erode away. The upper ridge currently centered over the area will slowly retreat back to the east as a series of troughs dig into the eastern US. This will bring us into more predominant southwesterly flow aloft as the first trough slowly approaches. Expect rain chances to be slightly better today and tomorrow as better moisture begins to surge into the area and storms are no longer being suffocated by the ridge overhead. Like most summertime storms there will be the potential for some gustier winds especially given the weakening ridge will allow for some deeper storms.
915 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 An area of low pressure will move just south of the region today bringing showers and some thunderstorms to the region. High pressure and dry conditions will be present for the middle of the week.
High pressure will maintain a mild air mass across the region through the remainder of the week.
Upper level ridging continues to weaken through the day, with some higher moisture (PWATs 1.
436 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Tuesday, we will begin to see a pattern change as the upper ridge breaks down, allowing for increased flow aloft and a cold front to sag southward. 7 inches and dewpoints in the lower 70s.
639 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) This morning an upper ridge extends from Srn NV/CA eastward to the Atlantic Coast as a trough extends from the Great Lakes down through MO and AR. This trough will expand down across E TX today then drift east into LA Wednesday. Also on Wednesday a low off of Baja will deepen into a closed low as it wobbles south. Temperatures today are expected to be very similar to yesterday with highs in the lower 80s across the Permian Basin with higher values from SE NM down through the Upper Trans Pecos. Pops decrease tonight then return Wednesday over the higher elevations from SE NM down across the mtns to the Rio Grande.
Weak high pressure will hold across the region with light winds becoming westerly and increasing this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. Dry air remains over the much of the peninsula early this morning as high pressure remains aloft over the region. At the surface, high pressure to our northeast shifts out into the Atlantic as a frontal boundary approaches the region tonight into Wednesday.
The bulk of this activity is situated roughly west of the Seven Mile Bridge and is drifting to the west. In addition, conditions are conducive for a cloud line to develop once again, especially across the Lower Keys. However, given how much warmer we are this hour versus this same time 24 hours ago, have opted to raise high temperatures to near 90 degrees.
644 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night ) The upper ridge over the southeast U. will flatten out today as a result of an upper trough pushing south along the eastern U. An upper low will move through the Plains Wednesday. Over the west, an upper low will remain over that area. A cold front will move through Arkansas today and bring slightly cooler and slightly drier air. Small rain chances continue on Wednesday, but another cold front will move into northeast Arkansas Wednesday night with drier air. High temperatures today will be in the lower 70s to upper 80s and highs Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
619 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 High pressure will keep conditions dry today. Messy upper ridging with heights in the 570s will hold warmer air in the region, so highs will climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s today and Wednesday. An upper trough and a weak sfc front will move through late Wednesday afternoon from west to east.
Low pressure continues to circulate over Eastern Washington and Oregon. Instability and moisture around this low has kicked off some showers and thunderstorms across much of the Northern Rockies. The upper low that has been sitting and spinning across the region the last couple of days will finally begin to become more of an open wave and progress eastward across the Northern Rockies tonight and Wednesday. An strong ridge will then develop over the region through this weekend and bring very warm temperatures, some 20 degrees above normal. Moisture will move through the high pressure and bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms each day this weekend.
1245 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through Wednesday as a weak cold front moves across the Mid-South.
1220 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night ) The upper ridge over the southeast U. will flatten out today as a result of an upper trough pushing south along the eastern U. An upper low will move through the Plains Wednesday. Over the west, an upper low will remain over that area. A cold front will move through Arkansas today and bring slightly cooler and slightly drier air. Small rain chances continue on Wednesday, but another cold front will move into northeast Arkansas Wednesday night with drier air. High temperatures today will be in the lower 70s to upper 80s and highs Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Some upper level troughing will setup over the eastern U.
Aloft, weak troughing remains in place, and we continue to have ample atmospheric moisture hanging around with 1. NW flow aloft will begin to increase tonight as ridging begins to build to our west. With more sunshine in the area, it will remain seasonal to slightly warmer than normal with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. Dry conditions will continue through Wednesday night as the H5 ridge axis moves overhead with lows again in the 60s.
Deepening eastern trough will nudge drier continental/cP air mass into Indiana this evening ending rain chances, and resulting in decreasing clouds. Despite weak cold advection, temperatures tomorrow will be warmer than the previous couple of days since more radiative component will be present under clear skies.
The veering flow will also translate in a warmer air mass moving into the area, with afternoon max temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
This seems possible and is typical of the current pattern with an upper high over the Four Corners. Tomorrow may be a little more unsettled as broad upper low off the coast of southern California and Baja, as well as an upper low across south-central Canada, help break the upper high/ridge.
sfc ridging will continue to influence the weather with light winds and a mix of sun and clouds. H85 temperatures will rise supporting warmer weather conditions with highs near 80 for most areas. This system will force a cold front southward across the Central Plains during the day on Thu.
Subtle boundary collisions,mainly in the vicinity of the Lower Keys, allowed for some additional showers to develop through this afternoon. Despite the light and chaotic flow, a cloud line has failed to materialize, however one over the Lower Keys is trying to congeal into a line.
Low cloud cover will settle in overnight into early Wednesday morning, keeping temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
1138 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 (Issued 1134 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023) Still expecting a strong cold front to make it's way inland from the lake during the afternoon hours starting around 2pm from Sheboygan County, and then working west and southwest with time. Wly winds and warm advection will support a 925 MB thermal ridge of 18-20C ahead of the front so temps are expected to reach 75-80F before the frontal passage. The large high pressure area will then gradually shift ewd through the day with height rises aloft. A cooler day is expected with 50s near the lake and 60s well inland.
Tomorrow, persistent east winds will keep us cooler, but there should be a bit of sunshine to start the day, before another batch of wildfire smoke leads to translucent skies.
147 PM PDT Tue May 16 2023 A similar weather pattern will dominate the region this week with marine layer clouds near the coast, to brighter and warmer conditions for inland areas.
Warm conditions will continue through the weekend with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the higher terrain. Most of the activity has remained over the higher terrain where a few locations have received up to a quarter of an inch of rain. Although most of the activity will remain over the higher terrain, various interacting outflow boundaries could help develop storms anywhere. A stripe of high heat risk is also anticipated in the lower elevations of Death Valley, with 110-114 degrees high temperatures expected around Furnace Creek. Needless to say, stay hydrated and limit outdoor exposure until the cooler parts of the day.
/LCP/ Tuesday, we will begin to see a pattern change as the upper ridge breaks down, allowing for increased flow aloft and a cold front to sag southward. 7 inches and dewpoints in the lower 70s.
a weak mid level trof axis was making its way southeast across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. low level moisture remaining over the region combined with the weak trof was aiding in the production of some patchy areas of drizzle/reduced visibility north of Interstate 40. the weak mid level trof is expected to continue to move southeast through the region. while cloud cover tries to become more broken in Eastern Oklahoma behind the trof axis.
There will be slight chances (10-30%) of inland thunderstorms later this evening, with the highest chances over eastern Douglas and northern Klamath counties. Southern Oregon and far northern California will see warm and mostly dry weather today, with the departing trough to the northeast and ridging overhead.
A cold front will push into the area Wednesday morning. Forcing will shift south of the forecast area by mid afternoon and this will confine the highest PoPs in the afternoon to the higher terrain and along the foothills, with lingering light showers possible over the plains. This combined with weaker energy streaming behind the cold front, will allow for lingering lighter showers even into the afternoon hours (earlier model progs had precipitation chances ending in the afternoon).
On Wednesday, an upper trough and associated surface cold front will swing across the region as the upper low drops southward across Manitoba. The cold front is expected to enter the forecast area relatively early in the day leading to an early start to the convection. Effective bulk shear will be relatively weak but may be enhanced near the convergence region of the cold front and the Black Hills, so it is possible that a couple of brief strong to isolated severe storms could develop. Breezy to windy conditions are expected behind the cold front on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
145 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 An area of low pressure will move just south of the region today bringing showers and some thunderstorms to the region. High pressure and dry conditions will be present for the middle of the week.