Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Tonight through Wednesday/ FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS: --Warmer Thursday. Temperatures do still drop into the 40s, a few sites potentially still seeing some upper 30s where more efficient radiational cooling occurs, but this is still warmer than this morning! The omega block in place today, with upper level ridging extending border to border north to south in the central US between the former Great Lakes low continuing to move towards the eastern US coast and another low just off shore of California, does still break down through the day Thursday as the western low treks onshore. However, moisture return remains in question with the same forecast soundings suggesting ample dry air through the low to mid-levels that will be difficult to overcome.
Issued by National Weather Service Shreveport LA 317 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 High pressure is bringing yet another nice early May day to the Arklamiss region, although a pattern change to support increasingly humid and warm conditions is quickly approaching. As mentioned, high pressure continues to foster dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures today and tonight. Expect slowly increasing higher clouds tonight, but otherwise decent radiational cooling conditions should allow for overnight lows to range from the lower 50s in western zones to the mid 40s towards the MS/AL state line. Increasing heights aloft tomorrow and a gradual return to southerly low level winds should make for warmer temperatures tomorrow with highs ranging from the low to mid 80s, even though mid to higher level clouds will be increasing further.
354 PM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Expansive upper level low finally drifts eastward today. A weak ridge of high pressure builds into the area Thursday, remaining in control across the region through the weekend. Still another piece of jet energy to flow across the region through the evening as the overall upper level low drifts eastward. One last piece of energy rotates across the upper low on Thursday with a few showers possible across NW PA during the afternoon. High pressure takes control of the region by Thursday night with skies becoming clear to partly cloudy. Quiet and dry weather is expected through the short term period underneath upper ridging and influenced by an area of high pressure situated across New England.
210 PM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Deep low pressure will drift eastward over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states through tonight, then push offshore Thursday.
Snow shower chances are likely in the ridges of West Virginia through late tonight, an additional 1-3 inches could occur within isolated snow bands.
242 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 Seasonable temperatures make a return for Thursday with highs looking to max out in the low to mid 70s.
While snowmelt has slowed due to the cooler temps, waterways continue to run high. But nevertheless, the cooler temps will continue today and tomorrow, with more hit-or- miss showers and light winds. The low pressure system that's been hanging around off the coast of California will finally get kicked east over Nevada the next couple days. Any locations below 6000' will stay rain, and with lots of dry air in the low levels tomorrow, precip amounts are likely to stay under 0.
Discussion: Currently we're sitting on the southern edge of the low and broad trough slowly move off to the northeast. As the the main low pressure system continues to move eastward these winds should slowly die down this afternoon and evening. However, a few of the higher elevations across northeast TN and southwest VA could see gusty winds until closer to midnight. High pressure will be in place tomorrow and help lead to mostly sunny skies, and the weaker flow out of the north/northwest means temperatures should be able to climb several degrees warmer than today with some places in the central and southern valley able to climb into the 70's in the afternoon.
(Tonight) High pressure remains to our west over eastern Kansas and Missouri today. However, morning soundings and forecast soundings do show warmer temperatures holding in place around and above 600 feet. This should setup a good ridge/valley split in temperatures tonight with lows in the lower elevations only dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Elsewhere, in the higher terrain, expect lows to only drop into the 45 to 50 degree range.
1216 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) Increasing southeasterly flow at the surface and ridging aloft will lead to warmer conditions across SE Texas today and Thursday with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the low 60s north of Harris County, mid 60s along the I-10 corridor, and to near 70 along the coast. Overnight low become unseasonably warm Thursday night due to the southeasterly flow and overcast skies causing low temperatures to only dip into the low to mid 70s for most of the region.
1227 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 The reign of the Omega Block pattern is coming to an end as the upper low over the Great Lakes continues to move east today. Highs this afternoon will be similar to yesterday's with slightly warmer temperatures in our western counties. The Omega Block will degrade tonight as the upper low drifts further to the east.
Tonight and Thursday Synopsis: Weak high pressure is centered across the western Great Lakes early this afternoon between a large low pressure system over New England and low pressure over northwest Ontario. The low pressure over Ontario and associated warm front will slide south and across Minnesota and Wisconsin over the next 24 hours. Remained slightly warmer than the NationalBlend for low temps.
/10 (Now through Thursday) Large upper level trof axis aligned over the Appalachians is beginning an eastward movement. Spilling southeastward on back side of departing upper trof is a thin veil of high level cirrus. At the surface,Dry northwesterly flow aloft continues through Thursday, as upper ridging lingers over the Central Plains and an upper low pushes out over the western Atlantic. Down at the surface, high pressure centered over the Mississippi Valley remains in control. Highs on Thursday will be a few degrees warmer with highs topping out in the lower to middle 80s as the upper ridging starts to build east. No rain expected through Thursday considering high pressure in place and low deep layer moisture values (precipitable water values <1.
For the rest of the forecast, broad upper level low in omega blocking pattern remains in place across the eastern CONUS, keeping our skies clear with broad subsidence through the column. The low aloft should begin to push a bit more to the north and east and weaken some, allowing for a relaxing of the persistent surface pressure gradient that has been in place.
1241 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 Surface ridging remains in control, which should keep the forecast area dry today. No changes were made to the high temperature forecast today, but I did try to tweak the hourly trends to better match the latest observations. Air temperatures are in the low to mid 50s where clear from SE OK, across S AR and into N LA with warmer low 60s in E TX. So, overall another high pressure day with still fairly low humidity by mid afternoon and our highs in the lower 80s. So our surface winds will vary from N to E today and begin to shift weak return flow from the E and SE overnight with warmer lows ranging all through the 50s. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the low to mid 80s.
During the short term forecast, an upper level ridge will be found above the Plains with a large upper level low over the western United States. Lee troughing will continue to be in place across eastern Colorado through tonight with winds from the south. Lows will generally be in the low 50s. By tomorrow afternoon, an area of low pressure will be found across southeastern Colorado into northeastern New Mexico with a warm front draping eastward near the KS/OK border. If the warm front is farther north than the ensemble models predict, a few storms across south central Kansas may become severe with hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
While showery conditions will continue through the end of the week, temperatures trend warmer. The upper low that has been spinning over the Great Lakes will dip south today and pass over the region. With the freezing level near the surface once again, small hail/graupel may be observed in heavier showers. Despite the much colder highs, the lows will continue to be similar as past nights and fall into the mid 30s to low 40s. The low pressure system will finally be out of the region by Thursday. Temperatures will begin to trend warmer as they climb into the 50s.
231 PM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Expansive upper level low finally drifts eastward today. A weak ridge of high pressure builds into the area Thursday, remaining in control across the region through the weekend. Still a couple pieces of jet energy to flow across the region through the evening as the overall upper level low drifts eastward. One last piece of energy rotates across the upper low on Thursday with a few showers possible across NW PA during the afternoon.
Dry air continues to drift through the area as we sit underneath a ridge of high pressure building into north central Canada. Another warm day tomorrow, but temperatures will be slightly cooler than they are today.
Currently, blocking pattern persists with a ridge of upper level high pressure stretching from the Southern Plains north/northwest into the Northern Rockies, with areas of low pressure off the CA coast and over the Great Lakes. Warm and dry conditions will continue for Thursday, with highs again from the low/mid 70s west and highs well into the 60s east.
Temperatures are expected to reach into the low 50s across most of NE FL, with locations in south Marion, Putnam, and Flagler counties hovering near the mid 50s.
The large area of low pressure responsible for the cool and damp pattern of late will start to finally get pushed east and move off the east coast Thursday. Some showers will linger through the end of the week, though temperatures will trend warmer. Notably warmer and dry conditions are then expected for the weekend. Precipitation still fairly widespread across the area this afternoon, through more showery closer to the low center across the Southern Tier and southern Finger Lakes, otherwise light rain and pockets of drizzle. Some snow again mixing in across the higher terrain. Modest height rises on Thursday as the mid level low continues to pull east and ridge starts to build into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will trend warmer with afternoon highs getting into the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Widespread cloud cover over the Bay Area and the Central Coast as the low pressure system, now located west-southwest of the Monterey Bay, slowly moves southward. However moisture will still move over the land and wrap around the low to keep rain in the forecast through Thursday morning.
948 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 Northerly wind shift has occurred this evening for locations north of the I-94 corridor as a weak cold front continues southward. Forecast remains on track this evening, albeit with slightly warmer temperatures. Dry air continues to drift through the area as we sit underneath a ridge of high pressure building into north central Canada. Another warm day tomorrow, but temperatures will be slightly cooler than they are today.
Some areas could again dip into the upper 30s briefly around sunrise, but most locations will bottom out in the low to mid 40s. Rain chances will begin to improve late tomorrow as the upper- level ridge associated with the persistent omega block begins to damp.
854 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 Seasonable temperatures make a return for Thursday with highs looking to max out in the low to mid 70s.
700 PM EDT Wed May 3 2023 There will continue to be a gradual eastward departure to the upper low that has affected the area for the last several days. The log jam in the mid/upper level flow pattern is beginning to release this afternoon as the eastern closed low drifts toward the mid Atlantic coast. The weak forcing profile favors a cycling pattern of low clouds while moisture remains adequate within the lingering thermal trough, especially with some trapping mid level subsidence. A few breaks of sun then become possible between mid and high clouds supplied by low pressure organizing in the upper Midwest. Mid level flow backing west occurs with retrograding height falls around 500 mb toward central Canada resulting in a weak elevated warm front and moisture transport into northern/western Lower Mi.
Overnight lows will range broadly in the lower to mid 70s with some areas seeing some radiational cooling. High pressure to our north will maintain light breezes coming in from the northwest, shifting northerly overnight.
As this piece of energy sheds off of the parent trough still near the west CONUS coast, expect to see precipitation chances and cloud cover increase through tomorrow morning.
944 PM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Our cool and unsettled weather will continue for a couple more days as we are under the influence of a slow moving low pressure system. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures for this weekend as high pressure builds in. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: The stacked low pressure system continues to impact the region. The upper low and its associated cold pool are passing just to our southwest; can see the circulation about the low with echoes moving toward the northwest across our forecast area.
the ridge aloft remains, but already seeing some high plains convection develop this afternoon in response to an approaching disturbance, which should help weaken the ridge aloft and lower heights across the local area. was never expecting much this evening, but we could see a brief flare in activity late tonight as the low level jet kicks up and potentially enhances activity across the local area towards daybreak. As we then transition into Thursday and the upper level ridge weakens further, expect the chance for some convection to develop by late afternoon or evening. the first across our extreme north near a weak frontal boundary and the second across Kansas as the low level jet kicks up during the late evening hours.
624 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 Seasonable temperatures make a return for Thursday with highs looking to max out in the low to mid 70s.
The large area of low pressure responsible for the cool and damp pattern of late will start to finally get pushed east and move off the east coast Thursday. A few wet snowflakes may mix in across the highest terrain, but to a lesser extent than last night with somewhat warmer temperatures aloft. Modest height rises on Thursday as the mid level low continues to pull east and ridge starts to build into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will trend warmer with afternoon highs getting into the upper 40s to mid 50s.
A weakening upper level low lingers over the west coast this afternoon.
No significant adjustments have been made with weak high pressure expected to continue bringing fair weather conditions to the forecast area. /EC/ High pressure is bringing yet another nice early May day to the Arklamiss region, although a pattern change to support increasingly humid and warm conditions is quickly approaching. As mentioned, high pressure continues to foster dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures today and tonight. Expect slowly increasing higher clouds tonight, but otherwise decent radiational cooling conditions should allow for overnight lows to range from the lower 50s in western zones to the mid 40s towards the MS/AL state line. Increasing heights aloft tomorrow and a gradual return to southerly low level winds should make for warmer temperatures tomorrow with highs ranging from the low to mid 80s, even though mid to higher level clouds will be increasing further.
Nudged gridded mins down a degree or two, close to the cooler MOS numbers which often does better than blended guidance in setups featuring anomalously low dew points. This yields mins in the M50s north and U50s south, a little lower in normally cooler sheltered spots.
728 PM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Low pressure will pull away from the Ohio Valley tonight and Thursday, allowing dry and warmer weather to return to the region.
624 PM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Low pressure will pull away from the Ohio Valley tonight and Thursday, allowing dry and warmer weather to return to the region.
High pressure dominates the region, which has brought along quite a beautiful day. Temperatures are currently ranging between the low to mid 60s. High pressure slowly works it way through the region, leaving us quiet and mild. Tonight, we will see clear skies and temperatures dropping into the low 40s. Light and variable winds will result, thanks to high pressure directly overhead.
433 PM MDT Wed May 3 2023 An upper ridge sits over the Rockies, while a low pressure system spins over the CA coast. Highs Thursday will be slightly cooler, but still in the 70s. The upper trough will swing northeastward and settle over the western states for the next several days. The northern plains will stay beneath a cooler airmass during this time, with highs in and around the 60s.
759 PM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Shower and high elevation snow chances will taper off through Thursday as the upper low moves east of the region.
730 PM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Our cool and unsettled weather will continue for a couple more days as we are under the influence of a slow moving low pressure system. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures for this weekend as high pressure builds in. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: The stacked low pressure system continues to impact the region. The upper low and its associated cold pool are passing just to our southwest; can see the circulation about the low with echoes moving toward the northwest across our forecast area.
624 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday Night) High pressure is now influencing our weather and we are seeing beautiful conditions across the area. High pressure remains in place for tomorrow keeping conditions quiet.
710 PM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Our cool and unsettled weather will continue for a couple more days as we are under the influence of a slow moving low pressure system. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures for this weekend as high pressure builds in. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: The stacked low pressure system continues to impact the region. The upper low and its associated cold pool are passing just to our southwest; can see the circulation about the low with echoes moving toward the northwest across our forecast area.
Sea breeze development is likely along each coast which will keep the immediate coastlines a few degrees cooler than inland areas - likely in the mid 80s.
Forecast remains on track this evening, albeit with slightly warmer temperatures. Dry air continues to drift through the area as we sit underneath a ridge of high pressure building into north central Canada. Another warm day tomorrow, but temperatures will be slightly cooler than they are today.
619 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 (Tonight) High pressure remains to our west over eastern Kansas and Missouri today. However, morning soundings and forecast soundings do show warmer temperatures holding in place around and above 600 feet. This should setup a good ridge/valley split in temperatures tonight with lows in the lower elevations only dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Elsewhere, in the higher terrain, expect lows to only drop into the 45 to 50 degree range.
612 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 Key Messages: - Quiet through tonight with high pressure in control. Afternoon surface obs and satellite imagery painted a beautiful picture of mostly sunny skies and near seasonable temperatures for southeast MN, northeast IA and west central WI; all thanks to high pressure stretching across the east central Great Plains. Temperatures as of 200 PM were in the low 50s to low 60s, just a little below normal for the area for the beginning of May. This dry and quiet stretch of weather will continue through tonight as the high passes across the mid-Mississippi River Valley and Midwest. This in turn will phase with a western CONUS trough later this week, which will help to shift ridging in place across the eastern Great Plains into the eastern Midwest and Ohio River Valley.
618 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 (This evening through Thursday Night) Another quiet and warm day across SETX with afternoon highs and heat indices in the low to mid 80s. While the upper ridge axis should come closer to our area tonight, it will also be weakening as it does so.
629 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023 An unsettled period is upcoming across the region as the large scale pattern changes very little and the upper Midwest remains in mainly southwest/west upper flow with troughing to the east and west. Overall, the cutoff low over the west coast looks to de-amplify and eject some energy northeast toward our area this weekend, but after that troughing looks to re-amplify a bit out west, working to keep split flow in place across the central CONUS and keep somewhat weak west/southwest flow over the upper Midwest.
Only cloud cover tonight should be of the high level variety.
907 PM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Strong troughing remains anchored over the eastern CONUS.
914 PM EDT Wed May 3 2023 A ridge of high pressure will build to the west and cross the region through the day Thursday.
Our warm-up continues this afternoon as a continued influx of warmer air from the southwest, combined with mostly sunny skies, drives inland temperatures into the lower 70s! It should thus be a rather pleasant day across the area, though cooler conditions can be expected near the northeastern IL lakeshore areas due to an afternoon lake breeze turning the winds onshore. Inland temperatures may actually be a couple of degrees warmer on Friday, with highs potentially topping out in the middle 70s. Once again, however, an afternoon lake breeze is likely to result in cooler lakeside conditions in far northeastern IL.
A weak warm front will result in development of scattered light rain showers mostly north of I-96 and particularly across our northern fcst area late today through Friday. Upper level ridging will amplify over our region this weekend.
Other than that, most of our area is clear tonight with temperatures dropping into the low-to-mid 40s.
358 AM CDT Thu May 4 2023 Upper-level ridging over the central CONUS will continue to deamplify as its axis moves east across the Plains. In the lower-levels, a warm front at the surface will develop today in eastern Kansas and extend southeast into Arkansas. The onset of showers and thunderstorms this evening has become later with each forecast, as the most abundant moisture and forcing appear to enter the Mid-Mississippi Valley after 06z Friday along the nose of the low-level jet. Otherwise, temperatures today will be warmer, landing in the 70s areawide despite increasing cloud cover through the day. Jaja Showers and thunderstorms will exit the CWA Friday night as the last upper-level vorticity max exits to the east and is replaced by ridging.
(Today through Friday) This AM, we have ridging present across E Conus. Satellite only shows some cirrus moving in through the NW flow, but the lower levels are dry and should remain so for another day today with light W-NW surface winds expected. The low level flow will turn around to very light/variable but going to ERLY tonight. A warm front will as a result push into the SW part of AL on Friday.
Highs today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday as surface ridging influences become more southeastern contiguous U. established and building upper level ridging influences from our west build into our area.
Downslope flow will lead to warmer high temperatures this afternoon with most locations in the mid to upper 80s.
-- Potential for some warm frontal precipitation Thurs-Fri -- Operational models are showing indications today for a warm front to set up across Central Lower Michigan from Thursday into Friday. Skies should be at least partly cloudy with more ridging showing up in today's model runs.