Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds shifting out of the N/NE will allow for slightly cooler temperatures tonight. (Rest of today through Tuesday) A weakening cold front remains draped over South FL this afternoon, and its influence has been felt across South FL since the early morning hours. Winds will continue their gradual shift from southerly/southwesterly to become more northerly as the front pushes through, and turning more northeasterly tomorrow as an area of high pressure builds in from southeast CONUS. With high pressure building over the area, expect tomorrow to be much drier, with temperatures a few degrees cooler than the past few days: lows in the mid 50s near the Lake, up to the mid 60s along the East Coast, and high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s.
610 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Light snow showers in SW Virginia, extreme NE Tennessee and the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains will come to an end late this afternoon. In the upper levels, ridging will be over the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Southeast will drift into the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow afternoon as low pressure ejects from the TX/LA Gulf Coast.
458 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023 Tonight through Tuesday night: After dry and cool conditions tonight, the primary concerns will become centered on an intense low pressure system expected to move across the forecast area late Tuesday through Tuesday night. A wind advisory has been issued, and would not rule out se portions of the area being upgraded to a high wind warning if the warm front surges farther inland and we see more sfc-based mixing than expected.
An upper level low continues to spin over southern Arizona this afternoon bringing snow showers and gusty winds across northcentral portions of the state. These showers will continue tonight as the low slowly meanders into New Mexico. Snowfall totals have been increased to account for the higher amounts expected in upslope areas from Jacob Lake, along the Mogollon Rim and towards the White Mountains. Winds should remain elevated enough out of the north/northeast, combined with cloud cover, to keep the low temperatures tomorrow morning from completely "bottoming out.
A chilly night is expected under the clear skies with readings expected at or near the freezing mark for inland areas from the Suwannee Valley and interior SE GA. (Through Tonight) High pressure will build from the northwest to the north through the night. Temperatures will range from the lower 30s inland, to the lower to mid 40s along the coast. Frost will be fairly widespread inland, with interior portions of SE GA falling to freezing.
A ridge with a weak disturbance bringing clouds and light showers to the northern areas through Tuesday.
943 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023 Flurries will be possible in the ridges through early overnight.
715 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023 High pressure has built in over the southeast behind a cold front, with quiet and cooler conditions over the local area. No concerns overnight other than lows about 10+ degrees cooler tomorrow morning compared with this morning.
540 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023 Key Messages: - Frequent, light snow chances through the week - Turning colder for the weekend * NEXT SNOW CHANCES: late Tue night-Wed Upper level trough still on track to lift northeast out the desert SW tonight, working across the OH River valley on Wed.
617 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023 There is a low chance for freezing drizzle late tonight, mainly toward northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan.
317 PM MST Mon Jan 23 2023 Brief ridging over the area has allowed for a relatively quiet weather day after last night's snowfall.
Fog and Freezing Temperatures are possible for the San Joaquin Vally for the following few days. These winds are set to diminish, early this evening, as the low exits our region.
Northerly winds will remain gusty at least one more evening, particularly along the near coast and coastal ridges. A generally quiet weather pattern continues as a strong high pressure over the NE Pacific continue building toward NW California.
627 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023 Tonight through Tuesday night: After dry and cool conditions tonight, the primary concerns will become centered on an intense low pressure system expected to move across the forecast area late Tuesday through Tuesday night. A wind advisory has been issued, and would not rule out se portions of the area being upgraded to a high wind warning if the warm front surges farther inland and we see more sfc-based mixing than expected.
841 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023 High pressure will build over the region tonight through Tuesday.
A closed upper low continues to deepen to our southeast into the Desert SW, with continued breezy north to east offshore winds to much of the forecast area. Ensemble guidance in good agreement of strong upper level ridging building over the eastern Pacific this week. This pattern will result in dry weather as well as warming daytime temperatures and cooler overnight temperatures due to radiational cooling under the ridge. Expect daytime temperatures in the low to mid 60s in the northern Sacramento Valley, mid to upper 50s in areas south of this, and morning lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s in the northern Sacramento Valley and low to mid 30s for areas south of this.
In the short term, things really have not changed from this morning, the cold front is moving through the region and some isolated to scattered precipitation will move through along with it through the overnight hours. Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a trough exiting to the southeast and northwest flow taking its place. Behind this a large ridge is developing over the northeast Pacific while cold air is beginning to pool up over the Alaskan north slope.
301 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023 (Issued 301 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023) Tonight through Tuesday night: Clouds will return as a cold front arrives from the northwest tonight. Some of the soundings show a deeper low level moisture profile, paired with the lift from the surface front this could be enough to cause some light snow or light freezing drizzle if ice crystals aren't introduced into the cloud layer. Southwest winds then build Tuesday evening and then become easterly overnight which will keep lows a little warmer along the lake in the upper 20s.
1038 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Tuesday, before another frontal system impacts the region midweek. Thereafter, high pressure returns for late week and into the weekend. Dry high pressure will continue to expand over the area tonight. This will bring another day with abundant sunshine and similar temperatures to what he had today, if not a touch warmer.
Precip chances return to portions of western/central Kansas during the period as short range models/CAMs indicate a closed upper low pushing east out of the Desert Southwest and across west Texas today before opening up as it lifts northeast through the Central Plains tonight. Below normal temperatures are to be expected today as a cold front begins to push into western Kansas this afternoon, not to mention increased cloud cover and snow pack lingering in places from the storm previous.
Northwesterly flow aloft as weak ridging remains just offshore.
Otherwise, temperatures are not expected to fall back much more this morning, bottoming out in the lower 20s across most of the area under a blanket of lake clouds. Troughing remains over the area 12z Sun into 12z Tue.
Lows will be in mid-upper 30s to the SW to near freezing in the NE. /DC/ Tonight through Tuesday night: After dry and cool conditions tonight, the primary concerns will become centered on an intense low pressure system expected to move across the forecast area late Tuesday through Tuesday night. A wind advisory has been issued, and would not rule out se portions of the area being upgraded to a high wind warning if the warm front surges farther inland and we see more sfc-based mixing than expected.
Soundings did not support any freezing precipitation so this was likely light rain and/or snow. Little accumulations expected, though the higher hills could see a quick inch produce from these showers. Localized area of high pressure over SW MT has helped to produce a pressure gradient over south-central MT that's allowing Bit Timber through Harlowton to gusts to 50 mph this afternoon, but should diminish this evening as the previously mentioned wave crosses over the area. Localized downsloping over south-central MT on Tuesday will bring temperatures climbing back into the low to mid 40s, with clear skies. Winds will continue to be breezy along the foothills west of Billings, though not to any concerning magnitudes (more what's just normal for those locations in drying/warmer periods during the winter).
Dry and cool conditions prevail across the region through the week, with lingering north breezes primarily in the lower Colorado River Valley. Breezy northerly winds will continue to linger down the Colorado River Valley today, as the system moves out and ridging builds in with northerly flow aloft. The ridging in the Eastern Pacific will continue to strengthen throughout the week, and its position will leave the door open for inside sliders to drop in from Canada.
(Tonight) Water vapor imagery this evening shows a mid level ridge moving east across the Southern Plains towards the TN/OH river Valleys. With high pressure under this ridge in place, expect light winds and clear skies to persist through the overnight hours. Due to the light winds and sub-freezing temperatures, some patchy freezing fog may be possible just before sunrise, mainly within the fog prone valleys.
1041 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023 Cloud cover remains in place across the region this evening as an upper low approaches the area overnight. Furthermore, Tuesday's high temperatures will be substantially cooler than what was observed today, as highs climb only into the 20s. However, the secondary cold front that was north of the Canadian border has dropped to the border now. This secondary cold front will continue to push ever so slowly southward, reaching somewhere along or north of the highway 2 corridor this evening, where it should stop. The higher end amounts (1-2 inches) look to occur along and north of the highway 2 corridor, with the under 1 inch amounts to the south.
A cold front has pushed through the Keys this evening. In wake of this front, winds have freshened modestly and have clocked around to north to northeast as an expansive robust high pressure system drives eastward through the eastern United States. This quick progression of winds is a response to the long wave trough broadly anchored across the United States and a quick series of short wave troughs rotating through the pattern. A large high pressure center driving eastward towards the Atlantic coast will result in moderate breezes shifting northeast to east through the overnight period. That said, there is some uncertainty about the potential for spells of MVFR and even IFR ceilings due to the development of post cold front stratus.
Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt except for W-NW 10-20 kt in the higher terrain.
1037 PM MST Mon Jan 23 2023 Brief ridging over the area has allowed for a relatively quiet weather day after last night's snowfall.
Will also remove the slight chance for freezing drizzle. Gehring (Issued 301 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023) Tonight through Tuesday night: Clouds will return as a cold front arrives from the northwest tonight. Some of the soundings show a deeper low level moisture profile, paired with the lift from the surface front this could be enough to cause some light snow or light freezing drizzle if ice crystals aren't introduced into the cloud layer. Southwest winds then build Tuesday evening and then become easterly overnight which will keep lows a little warmer along the lake in the upper 20s.
At 245 PM, a weak trough and surface front were sliding southward through the region. The main limiting factor for fog formation should be the low stratus. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages in the afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 30s.
Winter Weather expected across the Big Country with widespread A strong upper-level low and associated upper-level trough will continue to sweep across West Central Texas today, keeping colder temperatures and ample moisture over the are through tonight.
Troughing remains over the area 12z Sun into 12z Tue.
1049 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023 Key Messages: - Frequent, light snow chances through the week - Turning colder for the weekend * NEXT SNOW CHANCES: late Tue night-Wed Upper level trough still on track to lift northeast out the desert SW tonight, working across the OH River valley on Wed.
08z WV satellite shows an upper low located over far W TX with a broad area of moist advection occurring to the north side of this feature, including over the Panhandles.
425 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2023 Water vapor shows northern stream trof working through the Northern Plains with southern stream upper low over southwestern NM. At the surface, trof is crossing the western Dakotas.
151 AM PST Tue Jan 24 2023 Cooler than average temperatures with valley inversions will persist through the remainder of the work week. This will bring the chance for some low clouds, freezing fog, and some air quality concerns in urban valleys.
358 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2023 Water vapor shows northern stream trof working through the Northern Plains with southern stream upper low over southwestern NM. At the surface, trof is crossing the western Dakotas.
The upper low moving through the southern plains will stay far south and not expected to bring any precipitation chances.
337 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 Another clipper system and warm front is currently moving through the state, producing snow. Tonight will be the first night back in the very cold temperatures with a surge of cold air behind the low.
348 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2023 A short wave mid-level trough in northwest flow moving into an area of difluent flow aloft will generate isolated to scattered light snow showers today. Expect cooler temperatures for most areas today as cold air advection continues, though inverted valleys may not experience any change.
As of 2:30 am, temperatures have wet-bulbed to or below freezing across the majority of our region except for the eastern most column of counties where wet bulb temperatures remain around 34 degrees. However, this warmer air is shallow enough that precipitation type has been mainly snow especially within heavier convective bands. The current center of the low is across far southwestern New Mexico while a subtle perturbation ahead of this low is rotating northeast near Clovis. With snowfall and cloud cover in place temperatures won't warm much today remaining right around freezing.
All near-term solutions are showing a highly amplified ridge to the west with an upper low in the central United States. There could be some light accumulations of a trace to a half inch in the valleys with the highest amounts of one to three inches or so in the Jarbidge wilderness. Winds will remain breezy along the high terrain locations and so there could be patchy locations of blowing and drifting snow.
However, upstream trends on GOES imagery and airport obs suggest clearing skies along this ridge axis.
Satellite imagery this morning showed that most of the wrap around clouds and flurries had dissipated on the back side of the departing upper low that was over SW NM. 24 hr temperature changes at 2 am were running 3 to 10 degrees cooler across Pima/Pinal counties while they were 10 to 25 degrees cooler across Santa Cruz, Graham, Greenlee and Cochise counties. The reinforcing shot of cold air will bring widespread freezing temperatures to the area this morning with Hard Freeze/Freeze warnings in effect for Pima/Pinal counties until 8 am.
A compact winter storm will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight through Wednesday morning. The main impact across the Mid-South will be strong gradient winds and heavy rainfall as we will remain on the warm side of the cyclone.
That cool down should not last longer as the high pressure over the Carolinas will start to drift offshore the Atlantic coast and a warm front should push northward later tonight and Wednesday morning lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. However, a change in the pattern is expected by Wednesday as the upper-level trough located well west of the U. will continue to shift northeast and the associated cold front is expected to push southward over the Florida Peninsula during Wednesday afternoon and evening.
There are some scattered light snow showers in the west central right now, they will move southeast following the flow around the low in Canada. The main trend through the day however is slowly falling temperatures like yesterday, because of the passing warm front overnight. Another clipper system and warm front is currently moving through the state, producing snow. Tonight will be the first night back in the very cold temperatures with a surge of cold air behind the low.
Could see higher amounts than forecast if temperatures are slightly cooler than forecast given some of the high forecast QPF. And we are beginning to see the response in the temperature/dewpoint profile approaching the wet bulb temperatures at some of the west Texas and Oklahoma mesonet stations in the southwest as precipitation falls and saturates the lower levels.
Strong high pressure will remain over the region the next several days.
A short wave mid-level trough in northwest flow moving into an area of difluent flow aloft will generate isolated to scattered light snow showers today. Expect cooler temperatures for most areas today as cold air advection continues, though inverted valleys may not experience any change.
227 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with northwest flow across eastern Montana with a weak sub-synoptic to meso trough embedded in it. To the west a large ridge is developing over the northeast Pacific whose influence is rapidly spreading over British Columbia. Meanwhile, the northeast pacific ridge's crest will move onshore across British Columbia and break onto the Front Range of Alberta.
GOES Satellite imagery this morning highlights a broad ridge of high pressure offshore of the western US, placing the Northern Rockies under the influence of north-northwesterly flow. This trough will move southward across western Montana this afternoon and evening, leading to an increase in snow shower activity.
Light to moderate offshore flow will persist over the region this week with building high pressure by mid-to-late week resulting in a gradual warming trend. Winds are light at the surface but still strong in the hills and ridges/peaks in interior North Bay and East Bay. This offshore flow pattern is the result of an upper ridge remaining over the EPac with troughing over the interior CONUS. As the ridge builds offshore, temperatures will also be on the rise over the next two to three days.
335 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 (Issued 335 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023) Today and Tonight: This morning we do have a wintry mix of freezing drizzle and light snow moving across northeast Wisconsin, which may clip portions of Fond du Lac and Sheboygan counties. Temperatures will remain seasonable, in the low to mid 30s. Tonight we will see another night with low temperatures falling into the low to mid 20s, except closer to 30 degrees near Lake Michigan. These warmer temperature along the lakeshore will be driven by increasing cloud cover overnight and the development of easterly winds coming off the lake.
Surface temperatures will likely fall to near freezing as precip transitions to all snow, which will be heavy at times, creating hazardous/slushy road conditions, including greatly reduced visibilities. Still expect the highest snow totals to occur in the higher terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and especially across northwest Arkansas where amounts could approach a foot.
Subfreezing temperatures are currently only being observed in SE NM and Gaines County. The problem with the other areas is not only the warmer temperatures, but higher dewpoints that will make evaporational cooling more difficult. Cannot rule out convective banding causing brief moderate to heavy snowfall as the upper low center approaches, however forecasting these mesoscale processes more than a couple of hours out is very difficult and will update the forecast if warranted. Temperatures this low could cause any water on area roads to refreeze and create a black ice hazard.
432 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2023 A short wave mid-level trough in northwest flow moving into an area of difluent flow aloft will generate isolated to scattered light snow showers today. Expect cooler temperatures for most areas today as cold air advection continues, though inverted valleys may not experience any change.
Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over old Mexico and nearing the Texas Big Bend. The closed low will then track northeast and become centered over the mid Mississippi river valley by Wednesday morning. Thinking hasn't changed much from yesterday as there appears to be pool of high PWATs and low to mid 60F dew points that poke north into our southern zones by this evening when the cold front will be swinging through. The heaviest rainfall where two to three inches or more in a short amount of time is likely along the Highway 84 corridor.
Even though the highest winds will occur just prior to arrival of the cold front, a strong pressure gradient will continue behind the frontal passage, and that is why the wind advisory will continue through the mid afternoon hours on Wednesday.
In addition, a weak short wave evident on water vapor imagery across southern Manitoba moving through the flow this afternoon and evening could bring a round of snow showers across the region but confidence is on the low side so only have slight chance pops. Pattern Synopsis: Longwave troughing will encompass the majority of the CONUS through the middle of the week.
The latest surface analysis shows the thermal trough located along the coast with light to moderate offshore flow. Not much change in the weather is expected over the next 24 hours with low clouds and patchy to areas of freezing fog gradually burning off with mostly clear skies by the afternoon. Low clouds and patchy to areas of freezing fog is expected again late tonight into Wednesday morning, although it should be mainly confined to the Umpqua Basin and Illinois Valley.
winds are slowly starting to organize, and will continue to organize into a west to southerly orientation out ahead of this low. The low crosses through western Minnesota this evening, with some very light snow potential mainly for the northeast. The gradient/cold advection will keep temperatures 'mild' overnight, but with cold high pressure overhead readings will struggle to move much during the day Wednesday.
553 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 A compact winter storm will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight through Wednesday morning. The main impact across the Mid-South will be strong gradient winds and heavy rainfall as we will remain on the warm side of the cyclone.
131 AM PST Tue Jan 24 2023 Dense fog and freezing temperatures will occur across much of the San Joaquin Valley this morning. An upper low over the US/Mexico border in the Desert Southwest is combining with an upper ridge over the eastern Pacific to produce a cold and dry northerly flow aloft over central California. So it looks like freezing temperatures will be fairly isolated Wednesday morning, mainly in the south valley. The east Pacific ridge will nudge inland this week and maintain favorable fog conditions. Ensemble guidance indicates the possibility of some precipitation again by this weekend as the ridge retreats offshore and a series of short wave troughs drop down from the north.
531 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2023 Aviation - Snow Wednesday - A low pressure system over the OH valley region by midday Wednesday will move ne to near KBUF by late Wednesday night and bring widespread snow to our area. There are a few outlier model guidance solutions such as the 00Z 3km NAM that take the low on a more northwestward track.