Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(through Tonight) Drier air ahead of an incoming cold front has delayed anticipated storm development over southeast Georgia this afternoon. With the arrival of the cold front later today, the potential for storm development will increase for locations north of I-10, mainly over southeast Georgia. Coastal and urban areas in northeast Florida will have low temperatures mainly remain in the lower 70s.
858 AM PDT Thu Jun 8 2023 An approaching low pressure system will bring cooling this weekend, in addition to gusty west winds over the mountains and deserts as well as slight chances for showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Today will likely be the warmest day of the week for many locations west of the mountains before another low pressure system arrives this weekend.
1128 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Upper air analysis shows high amplitude ridging across the western half of the CONUS, with a large upper low across the much of the eastern seaboard. A second smaller upper low over central to southern California is drifting into the Great Basin and bringing precip through the northern Rockies region. Over the CWA, upper ridging remains dominant for one more day. Highs will be slightly warmer today, in the 80s to lower 90s. Tonight and Friday, the Great Basin upper low will phase back into a Pacific trough, while the trough slides eastward over the western CONUS. The ridge over the Northern Plains then breaks down, bringing unsettled weather to the region.
The dry and cooler weather continues through tomorrow with highs expected in the lower to mid 80s.
1055 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 A cold front is sitting to our south and a more comfortable air mass will continue to build in today with dew points falling into the 40s to lower 50s during the afternoon and evening. We are on the western edge of a long wave trough over the Eastern US.
We are on the western edge of a long wave trough over the East and that is bringing some low level instability and scattered clouds this afternoon.
Satellite imagery and sfc obs show a backdoor cold front moving out of far western portions of SEMO this morning with clearing skies. Cooler and dry conditions are in store for today and Friday as the synoptic pattern is dominated by a omega block with the FA beneath the western edge of a H5 trough of low pressure over the northeast CONUS. High temperatures each day will be near to slightly below normal in the low to mid 80s. Have mixed NBM with CONSMOS for nighttime temperatures as the NBM has been trending cooler for this reason. The weekend will start off dry as a H5 trough ejects out of Manitoba/Ontario Canada and develops into a closed low over Wisconsin.
429 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 A strong ridge of high pressure will bring warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky to end the week and into the weekend.
Good mixing will continue as surface temperatures again rise into the low 90s. The 500mb high will be pushed southwest through Friday as the larger area of low pressure to our east and northeast push a trough into the region. The highest chances for at least scattered showers will come in for Friday night as a cold front sinks south across the forecast area.
124 PM PDT Thu Jun 8 2023 An approaching low pressure system will bring cooling this weekend, in addition to gusty west winds over the mountains and deserts as well as slight chances for showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Today will likely be the warmest day of the week for many locations west of the mountains before another low pressure system arrives this weekend.
High pressure in the north will keep us with light northeasterly winds through sunset. Thus, we are expected to cool off quite a bit again, with most in the low 50s. Perfect weather to keep those windows open through the night! Tomorrow, we are expecting a similar day, with temperatures slightly warmer throughout and light winds shifting southeasterly.
1204 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 A cold front is sitting to our south and a more comfortable air mass will continue to build in today with dew points falling into the 40s to lower 50s during the afternoon and evening. We are on the western edge of a long wave trough over the Eastern US.
(The rest of this afternoon ) Northwesterly mid level flow continues with a weak trough axis just south of the area. A cold front will push into the area from the northeast this afternoon and evening, perhaps making it as far as the Tulsa area.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across portions of east Arkansas, southwest Tennessee and northwest Mississippi as a slow moving cold front moves south and west of the region. High pressure will build into the region on Friday bringing cooler and drier conditions to the Mid-South.
This low level dry air is resulting in more of a sprinkle/virga impact on all rainfall east of I-35 in Iowa, while light to moderate showers are confined to the far west/southwestern counties as of 10 AM.
Latest water vapor satellite imagery as well as streamline analysis depicts an omega blocking pattern entrenched across the CONUS with a high pressure across the central Plains and two bookend low pressure systems, with one over the northeast and the another one over the Great Basin. The low pressure system over the Great Basin will continue to maintain our temperatures below normal with highs today expected to top out in the lower to mid 90s across most of the lower desert communities, which for this time of the year is a good 5-8 degrees below normal.
336 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Broad area of low pressure over the continental northeast will weaken slightly through the evening but will continue to usher in cooler air across SE MI within the northerly flow. 12Z RAOB sounding measured an h850 temperature around 8C, which has aided in capping temperatures in the low to mid 70s as Michigan resides within the southwest periphery of the thermal trough. The thermal trough will depart to the east once warmer air from the northern plains folds into the Great Lakes, which will bring a modest upward trend to temperatures with highs peaking in the mid to upper 70s.
Modest upper H50 flow, around 20-25kts, behind the ridge axis will gradually become westerly overnight into tomorrow morning, and then southwesterly by tomorrow afternoon. Warmer-drier air will mix to the surface and push east out of southeast NM beginning late tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Highs west of the dryline will climb into the low/mid 90s with strong surface instability out ahead of the dryline where temps will also climb into the low 90s along with dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s.
/12 (Now through Friday) An upper level northwest flow pattern will continue through Friday as the area remains on the western side of an eastern states trough.
Pattern staying pretty stagnate over the next 7 days with ridging remaining to our south resulting in southwest flow. Ridging will remain to our south through the weekend giving us a mainly southwest flow.
A cold front will move across the UP Friday night and we're likely to see some high clouds develop ahead of it.
Predawn temperatures ranged from the lower 60s to lower 70s. The highest PoP chances will be collocated along a corridor of enhanced PWats/instability maxima which will reside parallel to and S of the frontal boundary. High temperatures today are expected to range from the lower 80s N, to lower/mid 90s elsewhere. The best PoPs would again reside S and W of the boundary where temperatures are warmer, moisture is more abundant, and the atmosphere is more unstable. High temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than Thursday and lower dew points should be felt over the NE half of the state Friday afternoon and evening.
This area of clouds are associated with a trough of low pressure well east of the region and they are expected to dissipate overnight. This will leave weak high pressure in control with mostly clear skies and light winds overnight allowing for cool temperatures once again.
Above normal rain chances continue through Friday morning under moderate SW steering flow as mid/upper level trough across the central GOMEX shifts eastward through late Friday. 7 inches) streaming across the island chain today will edge farther east into Friday and focus the higher rain chances generally east of the middle Keys into the late afternoon, with decreasing rain chances across the lower Keys into Friday evening as drier air moves across from the WSW. Winds will slacken as the trough inches east across the Florida Peninsula and deep layer moisture returns to below normal values for early June (PWAT < 1.
It will be warmer tomorrow, with max temps reaching the mid 90s for inland areas.
A bit cooler through the weekend and early week. Showers and storms can be seen moving through the region on radar imagery with more widespread, stratiform precipitation in the east in the wake of the backdoor cold front and more convective, pop-up precipitation in the west ahead of the front. The cold front is currently draped along a Lamar-Monett-Branson line moving southwestward and is inducing a sharp temperature gradient, with mid- 80 degree temperatures in the west and low-70s in the central and eastern regions where most of the precipitation has fallen. With the cold front through the area, highs will return to near- normal, in the low to mid 80s.
The upper-level pattern will remain rather consistent over the next couple of days with a ridge over the central Plains and a trough to the west and east. Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop along the boundary as temperatures in the low 90s and steep low-level lapse rates have eroded any cap.
Light northerly winds, low humidity, and temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s in most places early Friday, but sheltered cool spots in the Bluegrass Region may even reach the lower 40s. Low-level thicknesses increase slightly, and afternoon highs will likely be a touch warmer than today with readings in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Besides the atmospheric conditions that have made the area a code yellow the past couple of days according to the Air Quality Index, we will remain dry with very comfortable dew point temperatures and highs tomorrow trending a bit warmer, but still below normal for this time of year.
A cold front has moved out of the region this morning with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s over much of west Tennessee and into the Missouri bootheel.
The more western block was a Rex type (upper high north of an upper low) from NW of the Bering Strait to Aleutians. Lower heights and the passage of a cold front to our south yesterday so far has produced a slightly cooler day with highs so far mostly in the lower 80s. Cooler conditions will be felt tonight with lows in the mid 50s to around 60 with light winds.
In general, the forecast calls for afternoon temps in the 70s over the high country and 80s at the lower elevations. Below-freezing conditions are already present in some spots across the Mogollon Rim and Coconino Plateau. The California low pressure system centered over the Death Valley area is beginning to lift north and east.
308 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 A deep upper level low will continue to circulate in the northeast through Friday before moving further offshore during the weekend. Low pressure system approaches the area by early next workweek. Thick smoke has continued to linger around areas mainly east of the Blue Ridge Mountains early this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will top out in the mid to upper 70s for the lower elevations and 60s for the mountains. The upper level low will continue to circulate off to the north through the day on Friday. The other hazard for the day will be the smoke continuing in the area, especially east of the Blue Ridge throughout the day on Friday.
Discussion: A broad mid-level trough remains anchored across the eastern U. with a mid-level ridge stretched across the High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is draped across eastern Kansas. These scattered showers will continue to diminish in coverage and shift further westward as the better lift shifts further west with the expanding high pressure.
1124 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Today the weakening low pressure will track northward over the Great Basin leaving us in southerly flow. Isolated showers and storms are still possible mainly along the Divide, but do not expect much of this activity to reach the lower valleys. Tomorrow will not be much different as the low gradually moves over Idaho.
Dry west southwest flow aloft with some a few clouds this afternoon between a mid/upper low over Nevada and subtropical high well to the south of Baja.
1201 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 (Rest of Today) A cold front that sweep in a north to south manner across the Tennessee Valley yesterday evening; was now located from south of the MS Golden Triangle, to north of Montgomery and south of Columbus GA. High pressure building in from the north will bring another episode of somewhat cooler than normal air across the region to end the work week. Highs later today should "only" warm into the low/mid 80s, cooler than the mid 80s to lower 90s that occurred yesterday.
Hot temperatures will return to West Central Texas on Friday, as upper level ridging builds across Texas.
An upper level trough will move into eastern New Mexico shifting winds around from the southwest and west across the western two thirds of the CWA.
Discussion: Showers have ended as the cold front is now to our south. The only other two items of interest are 1) models show a few light precip returns across the east TN mountains later this morning as the trough axis swings through with an associated strong 500mb vortmax.
355 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 A strong ridge of high pressure will bring warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky to end the week and into the weekend.
934 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 We'll have a quiet, calm night as high pressure over the upper Great Lakes builds into the Ohio Valley. Light northerly winds, low humidity, and temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s in most places early Friday, but sheltered cool spots in the Bluegrass Region may even reach the lower 40s. Low-level thicknesses increase slightly, and afternoon highs will likely be a touch warmer than today with readings in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
1047 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 There is a low probability of daytime showers northeast and east of the Pittsburgh metro Friday affiliated with an upper low.
Friday, the upper low remains off the west of Colorado. This will support afternoon thunderstorms starting in the high country, then eastward. The blocking ridge over the central U.
Saw an earlier start and earlier end today, and generally weaker storms thanks to warmer temperatures aloft, with T500 -8C in both the 15Z and 23Z XMR soundings. The ridge axis of the Atlantic high slides south as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north.
810 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 (Issued 810 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023) Another quiet night with high pressure in control.
Temperatures will be modestly cooler through Friday with an uptick in shower activity again expected Friday afternoon and evening. RAP smoke model indicates the highest concentrations of near- sfc smoke will be south of the area on Friday and this should lead to improving air quality/visibility (not as hazy). Max temps will warm by a few to several deg F over the Central and North, but will be similar or a few deg F cooler in the south.
A strong ridge of high pressure will bring warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky to end the week and into the weekend.
Tonight through Friday night Closed low circulation positioned near Ely with deformation axis along the northern Nevada border.
831 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 A deep upper level low will continue to circulate in the northeast through Friday before moving further offshore during the weekend. Low pressure system approaches the area by early next workweek. Cutoff low pressure will remain over New England tonight while high pressure remains over the central CONUS. A northwest flow between these systems will continue to bring cooler conditions for this time of year along with low humidity. The upper level low will continue to circulate off to the north through the day on Friday. The other hazard for the day will be the smoke continuing in the area, especially east of the Blue Ridge throughout the day on Friday.
743 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 (through Tonight) Drier air ahead of an incoming cold front has delayed anticipated storm development over southeast Georgia this afternoon. With the arrival of the cold front later today, the potential for storm development will increase for locations north of I-10, mainly over southeast Georgia. Coastal and urban areas in northeast Florida will have low temperatures mainly remain in the lower 70s.
Temperatures will be modestly cooler through Friday with an uptick in shower activity again expected Friday afternoon and evening.
645 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 The combination of diurnal heating, low level convergence and proximity to the large upper low over the northeast has sustained scattered to broken mid and high clouds, based well above 5k feet. Broad area of low pressure over the continental northeast will weaken slightly through the evening but will continue to usher in cooler air across SE MI within the northerly flow. 12Z RAOB sounding measured an h850 temperature around 8C, which has aided in capping temperatures in the low to mid 70s as Michigan resides within the southwest periphery of the thermal trough. The thermal trough will depart to the east once warmer air from the northern plains folds into the Great Lakes, which will bring a modest upward trend to temperatures with highs peaking in the mid to upper 70s.
However, this activity is fairly high-based at 9-10 kft AGL and the sub-cloud layer is quite dry with dewpoints generally in the low/mid 50s. MJ Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across portions of east Arkansas, southwest Tennessee and northwest Mississippi as a slow moving cold front moves south and west of the region. High pressure will build into the region on Friday bringing cooler and drier conditions to the Mid-South.
633 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across portions of east Arkansas, southwest Tennessee and northwest Mississippi as a slow moving cold front moves south and west of the region. High pressure will build into the region on Friday bringing cooler and drier conditions to the Mid-South.
(Rest of tonight) The Tennessee Valley remains on the northern side of a cold front, keeping the shower and storm activity confined to areas to our south. Northerly flow will continue to keep cooler, drier air moving through the forecast area and a dry forecast will persist tonight.
756 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Pattern staying pretty stagnate over the next 7 days with ridging remaining to our south resulting in southwest flow. Ridging will remain to our south through the weekend giving us a mainly southwest flow.
Regardless, temperatures will once again cool into the upper 40s and lower 50s across the area tonight before rebounding back into the lower 80s (70s near the lake) Friday afternoon.
The only caveat though is the fact that N LA still maintains moderate MLCapes as well, even as some of the higher PW's try to spill S into the I-20 parishes.
Friday will be mostly cloudy and cooler with afternoon temperatures in the 70s.
336 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 High pressure will continue to build southeast into the area today. The high will then settle across the Ohio Valley tonight.
This, along with midlevel height trends generally being neutral and still overall negative anomalies, suggest maybe a degree or two warmer today at best.
342 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Today and Tonight: early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a large closed low centered over the New England states. Our CWA will remain on the southwest periphery of this closed low through tonight with a continuation of northwest flow aloft across our region. Early morning surface analysis had a stalled weak cold front oriented northwest to southeast and nearly bisecting our CWA. As the day progresses, the greatest coverage of activity is expected across the southwest half of the CWA where highs today should reach the lower 90s. The drier air in our northeast will allow temperatures to bottom out in the lower 60s which is cooler than normal while the rest of our CWA bottoms out near normal in the mid to upper 60s again.
Upper trough axis over the LA region has resulted in a few showers and storms towards our far southeast CWA this morning. The nearly stationary boundary bisecting the CWA becomes more diffuse by the afternoon, denoted mostly by highs ranging from the upper 80s in central KS to the lower 80s in eastern Kansas. Given the high PWAT values around 1.
After a rather unusually long period of light winds and isolated late day/evening thunderstorms that hardly moved anywhere each day for the past 3 or 4 days, we will finally return to a more June-like pattern of increased jet level winds aloft and a resulting leeside trough over southeast Colorado.
923 PM PDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Weather on Friday will be similar to today, ahead of an approaching low pressure system for the weekend.
319 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Currently have an upper low situated over New England with another upper circulation over the Great Basin. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure is located over the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Western Great Lakes region. By 12z Sun, an upper low is expected to sink south across Southwest Ontario and into the Western Great Lakes region. This will allow a strong cold front to surge south late Sat night into Sun. There is good model agreement that an upper low will be located over the Great Lakes region to start the work week with a weaker upper circulation over the Desert Southwest. Shower and storm chances will increase, especially across western KS, for Mon into Mon night as the upper low to our west slowly migrates east.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to funnel very dry air into the region today. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s. Tonight will see clear skies and calm winds with low temperatures dipping into the lower to middle 50s.
With weak flow in the mid and upper levels, bulk shear values will run on the low side - ranging from around 15- 20 kts west of Interstate 29, to 25 to 30 kts east of there. Because of this, the severe potential is on the low side. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s.
Broad area of low pressure over the continental northeast will weaken slightly through the evening but will continue to usher in cooler air across SE MI within the northerly flow. 12Z RAOB sounding measured an h850 temperature around 8C, which has aided in capping temperatures in the low to mid 70s as Michigan resides within the southwest periphery of the thermal trough. The thermal trough will depart to the east once warmer air from the northern plains folds into the Great Lakes, which will bring a modest upward trend to temperatures with highs peaking in the mid to upper 70s.
343 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 High pressure centered over the Upper Midwest will drift southeast into the Ohio Valley over the next 24 hours. The high pressure and dry air will continue to keep precip well outside of our forecast area through tonight. Guidance shows 850mb temperatures warming to 13-15C this afternoon, and with strong June sunshine, highs today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday in the 80-85 degree range.
Friday will be mostly cloudy and cooler with afternoon temperatures in the 70s. /GKoch 06Z TAFs: Unusually deep moisture wrapping around an upper low in southern Idaho will spread rounds of light to moderate rain into central and eastern Washington and north Idaho through the night into Friday.
Nevertheless, will still advertise cooler temperatures near the lake in the 70s, with highs near or slightly above 80 for inland areas this afternoon. Winds will remain mainly northerly into northwest Indiana where the cooler temps will spread further inland.