Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A very sharp short wave trough was analyzed near the four-corners region moving to the southeast. Closer to the surface, a southwest-northeast oriented cold front was making its way southward across the Central and Southern Plains. Isolated convection is anticipated to form within this moist axis ahead of the advancing cold front. Heavy rain and strong winds will again be possible with the overnight activity favoring more of the southwestern South Plains where the higher theta-e values will be located.
152 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Fantastic September weather continues through Saturday thanks to high pressure, with seasonable daytime highs and cool nights under mainly clear and sunny skies.
An upper level trough and an associated weak cold front will push south across the area on Saturday. As the front and upper level trough start to push south into the area, few to scattered showers may develop and move southeast into parts of the area again mainly north of I-44. Where some more sunshine can occur, highs may be able to warm into the lower 80s.
There could be some fog that develops along and east of Highway 83 as winds lighten and with the lower levels forecasted to remain saturated. With drier air advecting into the area, low temperatures may be cooler in the low to mid 40's.
Some afternoon cumulus are likely to develop on the high terrain, but think rain/storm chances are pretty minimal across much of the area.
Tomorrow morning, a subtle low-level trough will develop across middle TN and central KY, with a weak area of high low-level heights developing over the upstate of SC and western NC. Temperatures tomorrow will be coolest in the areas which see the greatest cloud cover (south of the Parkways), with highs ranging from the mid 70s to the low 80s.
Heading into evening, could see another round of isolated showers ahead of a secondary cold front, mainly across SW Minnesota and NW Iowa. Thus, have afternoon highs only rising into the low to mid 70s, with overnight lows falling into the 40s.
Temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s today as the ridge stays further to our west. Upper ridging will start to build over the region Saturday, increasing temperatures into the 80s for most. Some places could see RH values in the low teens.
306 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Cooler, below normal temperatures will start out for the short term with some scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms through evening and into the overnight.
(Through tonight) Longwave troughing is currently positioned to the northwest of the CWA. However, as troughing shifts east late tonight, a weak surface boundary will begin to navigate southward, potentially enhancing rain chances across northwestern portions of the CWA before daybreak Saturday.
131 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Clear and dry under high pressure through the start of the weekend.
Boise was an exception, being several degrees warmer than yesterday.
(The rest of today ) A disturbance in westerly flow aloft will likely result in at least some increase in mid and high cloud cover today, but precipitation chances will remain to our west as dry low level air continues to be reinforced with high pressure centered over the Great Lakes.
311 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Cooler, below normal temperatures will start out for the short term with some scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms through evening and into the overnight.
154 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Zonal flow remains aloft across the region this afternoon with a weak surface boundary positioned to our north and weak high pressure building in behind Lee. The surface boundary shifts south slightly this weekend as upper- level troughing starts to amplify over the southeast.
1208 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 (Today through Saturday Night ) The Natural State rmnd under the control of high pressure that was centered ovr the Great Lakes Region this mrng. With less cloud cover expected today, high temps wl be a few degrees warmer than on Thu, ranging fm the mid 70s to the mid 80s. This wl allow a new upper trof and sfc CDFNT to apch the FA fm the NW.
158 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Upper level ridging will remain overhead through the weekend, keeping us warm and dry in the meantime.
1233 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Today through tonight, our region remains in between a slowly- moving low pressure system over Manitoba and a strong ridge of high pressure over the Rocky Mountain region.
Discussion: An upper trough was located across Manitoba and Ontario this afternoon with downstream ridging from the Tennessee Valley north through the Ohio Valley. The main upper trough will push south overnight and into Saturday increasing synoptic lift across the area, and increasing southerly flow. Widespread rainfall Sat night into Sun before cold front clears the area.
By this time tomorrow, the center of the ridge will be near the forecast area.
154 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Aviation High pressure over Lake Huron remains in control of our weather today. For today, though, we'll see abundant sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures than we saw yesterday. A developing cold front will track east across Wisconsin Saturday. The higher chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will arrive Saturday night.
1227 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 (Today and tonight) A positive tilted trough slowly moving across the Four Corners region overnight continues to drive convection out ahead across eastern New Mexico and West Texas. As the upper trough lingering over the Four Corners region begins to slowly shift east and further impinge on the southern jet across West and Central Texas, a cold front will begin to push south through the Texas Panhandle reaching our northern periphery late this afternoon into the early evening. This will have obvious implications on max temperatures today and instability out ahead of the advancing cold front.
122 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today.
1230 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Tranquil weather conditions for Friday and over the weekend as upper level ridging builds strongly in from the south with increasing convergence aloft throughout. Prevailing westerly winds expected for the latter half of the weekend and beyond with slight breezes up to 15-25 mph due to an increased gradient due to a supported building high pressure at the surface.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies through Saturday. This ridge will keep temperatures around 10 degrees above seasonal averages.
Leading short wave associated with upper level trough diving into the Upper Midwest will promote showers and perhaps a thunderstorm across the region. Weak cold front across southern Nebraska into southern Iowa is approaching from the northwest, leading to moisture pooling ahead of the front.
325 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Dry conditions will continue through the daytime hours on Saturday as high pressure remains in control.
233 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 High pressure will control the weather pattern for the next few days, bringing dry weather and temperatures slightly cooler than normal.
The showers are expected to weaken and become less organized as they move east through the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating and dynamics as the low level jet weakens and the upper jet lifts north into Upper Michigan. A weak cold front will track through on Saturday along with a mid level trough through the western Great Lakes region.
Saturday: Transition towards warmer temperatures and dry weather is forecast. A deep (relative to late week features) upper trough is expected to rotate across the Ozark Plateau on Saturday.
Gradual warming trend can be expected through the period as weak ridging persists.
629 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Cooler, below normal temperatures will start out for the short term with some scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms through evening and into the overnight.
746 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Deep column ridging and anticyclonic flow influence will remain in place over Southeast Michigan through tonight.
743 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Dry conditions will continue through the daytime hours on Saturday as high pressure remains in control.
- Clear and mild tonight - Increasing clouds Saturday Surface analysis this afternoon shows a broad area of high pressure centered just north of Lake Ontario. A cold front was found across northern Minnesota, stretching southwest into South Dakota and Nebraska. GOES16 shows a few CU across Indiana, while more widespread cloud coverage was found along and ahead of the previously mentioned cold front. The upper trough and associated cold front to the northwest is expected to deepen and push toward the Ohio Valley. However the influence of the high pressure system will persist through the night. Models show a brief pattern change aloft as a deep trough is expected to arrive across the region. This sounds favorable for precipitation, but happenings within the lower levels tell another story.
859 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends depict an elongated upper-level ridge axis stretching from the United States Pacific Coast up into portions of Alberta and Saskatchewan, an upper level low over western Ontario, Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic south of the New Brunswick Coast, and nearly zonal mid-level flow present over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley.
As the system or remnant boundaries work through the Rio Grande Valley on Saturday, along with the transiting short wave trough, the sea breeze may help initiate additional storms or boundaries for storms to develop across through Saturday afternoon and evening.
759 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Fantastic September weather continues through Saturday thanks to high pressure, with seasonable daytime highs and cool nights under mainly clear and sunny skies.
Ridging remains in place through the mid and upper levels. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridge will continue to pivot out into the Atlantic. Overnight lows will be able to ease into the lower 80s with the more interior and protected locations sneaking nearer 80. High pressure anchored over the eastern United States will swing further eastward into the Atlantic overnight.
Upper level ridging will remain overhead through the weekend, keeping us warm and dry in the meantime.
Pressure falls in response to an approaching short wave trough and remaining insolation this afternoon should be sufficient to halt the southwestward movement of this boundary and mix it northward rapidly later this afternoon and evening. Lows overnight will be close to normal, ranging from the lower 70s along the Rio Grande valley to the mid 50s at higher elevations. A cold front then surges southward across the South Plains overnight, reaching the northern Permian Basin before daybreak and the Pecos River valley around mid morning. Highs Saturday will range from the mid 70s across northern Lea County NM to the lower 90s along the Rio Grande Valley.
913 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Dry conditions will continue through the daytime hours on Saturday as high pressure remains in control.
High pressure dominates the weather pattern through the weekend. High pressure is situated over the Great Basin through Saturday night.
Widespread showers across the area this afternoon, with some thunderstorms rolling out of the San Juans and across the San Luis Valley as of 230 pm, as training end of upper level trough pushes slowly eastward across srn CO. Still enough forcing for precip to continue through at least mid-evening as trough will be slow to exit, though areas along and north of the Arkansas should see showers end by sunset, as some drier air begins to work in from the north. On Saturday, trough slips east with clearing skies and generally light winds across the region.
/EC/ An upper trough will move across the Mississippi Valley Saturday into Saturday night and the southern extent of this trough will dig far enough south to exert influence across our local area. While the best forcing for ascent will remain north of the ArkLaMiss, a reinforcing, weak, cold front (perhaps better described as a dry front/surge) will likely combine with sufficient diurnal heating to allow for cloudiness and a chance for a few isolated showers into early Saturday evening, generally prior to 9 PM, before ending across eastern parts of the area.
734 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2023 We are underneath dry northerly flow aloft and building heights as strong northern Rockies ridge drifts slowly eastward.
616 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 (Through tonight) Longwave troughing is currently positioned to the northwest of the CWA. However, as troughing shifts east late tonight, a weak surface boundary will begin to navigate southward, potentially enhancing rain chances across northwestern portions of the CWA before daybreak Saturday.
702 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 High pressure will control the weather pattern for the next few days, bringing dry weather and temperatures slightly cooler than normal.
Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, with lows falling into the low to mid 70s.
(Rest of tonight) Isolated to scattered convection continues near a north to south moisture convergence boundary that was attached to a weak area of low pressure (earlier over NW Alabama) that has dissipated as it moved into NE Mississippi. Models continue to depict pre-frontal trough axis to push east from eastern Kansas and western Missouri towards daybreak.
Much better rain chances will move into the region after sunrise as a trough approaches the region. Discussion: An upper trough was located across Manitoba and Ontario this afternoon with downstream ridging from the Tennessee Valley north through the Ohio Valley. The main upper trough will push south overnight and into Saturday increasing synoptic lift across the area, and increasing southerly flow. Widespread rainfall Sat night into Sun before cold front clears the area.
This evening through Friday Tranquil weather conditions for Friday and over the weekend, as upper level ridging builds strongly in from the south with increasing convergence aloft throughout. Prevailing westerly winds expected for the latter half of the weekend and beyond with slight breezes up to 15-25 mph due to an increased gradient due to a supported building high pressure at the surface.
This would indicate perhaps some areas, mainly the west, could get cooler than currently forecast.
An upper level ridge is located over the West Coast and perpetuating a dry pattern over Northwest California. Otherwise, a weak upper low off the California Coast is forecast to gradually approach the central California Coast over the weekend. A modest plume of midlevel subtropical moisture is expected to surge northward ahead of the low, and when combined with a steep lapse rate environment, will favor isolated shower/thunderstorm development across the interior mountains of Northwestern California tomorrow afternoon.
Zonal flow remains aloft across the region this afternoon with a weak surface boundary positioned to our north and weak high pressure building in behind Lee. The surface boundary shifts south slightly this weekend as upper- level troughing starts to amplify over the southeast.
1155 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends depict an elongated upper-level ridge axis stretching from the United States Pacific Coast up into portions of Alberta and Saskatchewan, an upper level low over western Ontario, Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic south of the New Brunswick Coast, and nearly zonal mid-level flow present over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley.
Thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico this evening and track southeast as a possible MCS late tonight into Saturday morning per latest HRRR. Temperatures will be quite pleasant and below normal tomorrow, with highs mainly in the lower 80s.
101 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Dry conditions will continue through the daytime hours on Saturday as high pressure remains in control.
With continued weak forcing ahead of southeastward advancing upper trough axis (which is currently moving into far northern Oklahoma) scattered showers and an a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible through this morning and into the afternoon. A few degrees warmer today across northern Oklahoma (where better chances for afternoon insolation will reside) and similar temperatures to yesterday across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. Cooler temperature minima tonight with most locations in the 50s.
408 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 High pressure over the region will result in quiet conditions for most of the region.
941 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Upper level ridging will remain overhead through the weekend, keeping us warm and dry in the meantime.
Meanwhile, a deepening upper trough will approach central Indiana from the northwest. At the surface, high pressure will linger across the area. Mid and high level moisture will increase across the area today as the upper trough approaches. As the upper trough axis approaches during the night, forcing will increase, but best forcing will still remain out of the area to the north and west.
331 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Bifurcation of a positively tilted longwave trough extending from Ontario through The Plains is evident this morning in GOES vapor imagery with cyclonic circulations delineated over South Dakota and central Ontario. Expect top-down saturation processes to expand locally as the day progresses while ridging below 700 mb is slower to wane/shear-out given the upstream wave interactions with Hurricane (soon to be Tropical Storm) Lee over New England and the Canadian Maritimes.
153 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Upper low currently north of Lake Superior will continue to move east today, with ridge building across the Northern Plains.
Weak ridging has begun to build in across the region. However, there has been a noticeable lack of vertical growth with these showers due to significant drier air in the lower levels, which has also kept lightning minimal. Temperatures this early mid-September morning are in the lower to mid 80s and dew points are generally in the mid 70s, making for a muggy start to the day.
(Today) A few showers will continue this morning and possibly into early afternoon across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as an upper trough moves across the area. Afternoon high temperatures today will be a bit cooler than Friday with more cloud cover anticipated.
WV imagery indicates a broad scale upper level trough of low pressure dropping southeast through the Upper Midwest. Near the surface, high pressure is building in across much of Colorado. A modest rebound to temperatures can be expected today despite little change to the general air mass stretched across the high plains, with H85 temperatures holding around to slightly above 15C.
-Cooler temperatures are expected tonight but the probability of frost is low (less than 10% for 36F or lower temps) and conditional on remaining clear overnight. The upper low over Ontario will keep northerly flow in place over our region the next several days. This morning several mid level circulation that rotated around this upper low are still progressing over South Dakota and near Lake of the Woods.
226 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Canadian high pressure over the region tonight will weaken and move offshore Saturday.
Slow-moving cold front is trying to make eastward progress into the Western Great Lakes region early this morning. hung up by persistent high pressure centered over the Eastern Lakes. Upstream cold front will slowly move eastward thru Western Upper Michigan and Wisconsin this morning. High temps this afternoon will again warm into the lower 70s this afternoon despite increasing cloud cover and chances of precip.
348 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 High pressure exits today and tonight.
234 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Clear/dry under high pressure most of today.
146 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Temperatures will quickly rise today as prominent upper ridging and downslope warming persist. Temperatures will be almost 10 degrees warmer today, and this entire period will see temperatures approaching 90 degrees.
(Today) Persistent low topped showers in far northwest AL along the surface inverted trough will tend to increase in coverage through the morning hours.
Light winds, clear skies, and cooler temperatures allowed for patchy fog to develop across portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa overnight. The passage of a cold front will bring the potential for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two.
214 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Upper level trough is approaching the region this morning from the northwest. Surface cold front arrives this evening. There is just enough moisture that the front and the gap between the surface front and the upper trough could generates few showers and maybe an elevated thundershower.
1013 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 (Issued 1006 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023) No major changes to the going forecast this evening except for lower chances for rain overnight as dry sfc conditions and weak forcing/convergence along the leading cold front have lead to areas of rain dying off this evening. Redevelopment still looks possible over southeastern Wisconsin tomorrow morning, and then area-wide Saturday afternoon as the trough pivots toward the state. Highs are expected to remain in the lower 70s, but after the passage of the cold front, temperatures will drop to the mid to upper 50s overnight.
Slightly lowered temps in the west based on current trends, lowering dewpoints, and the latest NBM runs coming in a little cooler. This would indicate perhaps some areas, mainly the west, could get cooler than currently forecast.
The ridging over the area, we will have a spectacular couple of days of weather.
An upper low is present across Ontario, Canada this morning as Hurricane Lee approaches the northeast US and Nova Scotia. The first of two cold fronts has made it through the forecast area with the second working southward from eastern Minnesota through South Dakota. Daytime heating and steepening mid-level lapse rates will lead to MUCAPE values of 800-1300 J/kg per the HREF ahead of the southward advancing cold front. Large-scale ascent from a trough digging across the central CONUS along with lift along the front is expected to generate scattered convection Saturday afternoon and evening. Most likely timing would be between 4-9pm before the cold front moves southeast of the area.
An upper level trough is currently moving south across the northern Plains early this morning. The trough and associated cold front will move south across the region today into tonight. Ahead of the trough showers have developed across portions of southeastern Kansas and western Missouri early this morning. As the trough moves south height falls will allow some uncapped MUCAPE to develop across central MO late this afternoon and move south across the area into this evening. Tonight as the upper level trough moves through the region some weak uncapped MUCAPE could develop and lift from the trough could result in a some isolated showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder to occur.
In addition, this trough will support the passage of a weak cold front and light north to northeast winds across the forecast area this afternoon.
301 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Dry conditions will continue through the daytime hours today as high pressure remains in control.
Farther west, across most of the Midsouth, there is a tight dew point gradient, tapering off to the low 60s near Jackson, TN and Oxford, MS, and in the low to middle 50s in the Missouri Bootheel and East Arkansas. Late this afternoon, a longwave trough oriented from the Great Lakes into west Arkansas will approach the southern and central Mississippi River valley.
135 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Fantastic September weather continues through Saturday thanks to high pressure, with seasonable daytime highs and cool nights under mainly clear and sunny skies.
322 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 High pressure over the region will result in quiet conditions for most of the region.
Zonal flow aloft continues this morning with weak ridging extending down the E Seaboard into the state.
1143 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Deep column ridging and anticyclonic flow influence will remain in place over Southeast Michigan through tonight.