Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Weak high pressure should continue to hold into the region through mid week resulting in general light wind flow with a gradual increase in moisture for the next several days. Later this week, the high pressure ridge axis is expected to move south while a trough digs into the southeastern US. Then, for the latter part of the week, higher PoPs are on the forecast as the aforementioned trough digs south. In terms of temperatures, daytime highs should continue in the low to mid 90s with heat indices close to advisory criteria. Weak high pressure will continue to hold over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the next several days supporting light winds (less than 10 knots), increasing a little as the sea breeze develops near the coast each day.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) High pressure continues to hold court over the Southwest US, including West Texas. Tomorrow will be fairly similar to today with the biggest difference that highs end up a couple to a few degrees warmer in the mid to upper 90s for most.
Very hot above normal daytime temperatures for early July will continue this week under high pressure aloft. The 12z 500 mb chart showed the upper high over NW AZ with light E-NE flow over SE AZ. At the surface dewpoint values were mostly in the 40s with a few spots in the lower 50s across western half of Pima county.
330 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Weak high pressure will build across the the region tonight into Tuesday. Another cold front will arrive later in the week. Lingering low level moisture, small dew point depressions, and light and variable winds as high pressure builds in will give way to fog development areawide overnight tonight. Mainly clear and quiet for Tuesday as high pressure builds over the area from the south.
120 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Upper level analysis shows compact upper low over east-central SK/western MB with cyclonic flow aloft over the Northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extends from southeastern SD through southern SD, along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills and into northeastern WY. Transient mesocyclones are possible with these storms -- and a severe hail threat -- although severe winds will be the primary severe weather hazard with this convection. The front will surge southward early Tuesday followed by a cooler air mass and rain/storms through the day Tuesday.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in northwest Montana this afternoon and evening, with the higher probability of storms (30-40 percent) closer to the Continental Divide. For the Fourth of July, temperatures will run slightly cooler than Monday behind the Canadian cold front. A few showers may bleed over into Lemhi County and the higher terrain of north central Idaho, but most locations in central Idaho will see dry conditions. Lift from this trough will help spark a few showers across the airspace this afternoon and evening.
Generally dry condition prevail today as an upper trough in southwestern Canada approaches the Pacific Northwest.
141 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Satellite imagery shows zonal flow ahead of a sharp trof dropping out of southern BC. Upslope stratocu remains along our western and southern foothills in the wake of last night's cold front. Snow levels will fall sufficiently for some wet snowfall over the highest peaks of the Beartooth-Absarokas late tonight and tomorrow.
312 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 (Rest of today through Tuesday) A mid-level ridge of high pressure associated with the greater Bermuda high over the northern Atlantic continues to hold over the region. While this ridge is not enough to completely shut off convective activity, it will help keep a warm airmass over the region which will make conditions ripe for heat index values in the triple digits each day before the rain from showers and thunderstorms have a chance to provide some relief.
154 PM MST Mon Jul 3 2023 A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the overall weather pattern through the remainder of this week.
TFJ A cold front moved through the forecast area overnight with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning before high pressure moves into NE Montana in the late morning. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler today with highs in the 70s in most areas. Upper trough moves into the area tonight with a cold front.
The weak ridge of high pressure which is currently over the Mid Mississippi Valley will drift east tonight and tomorrow which will allow the wind to swing around to the south and bring more humid air back to our forecast area. Meanwhile, the short wave trough currently over the east central Plains will drift into across Missouri and Illinois tomorrow. On the high end, the RAP shows a broad area of CAPE as high as 3500-4000 K/Jg, which seems excessive given that most other guidance shows CAPE more in the 1500-2000 J/Kg range. That falls more in line with the HREF mean which lends credibility to the lower values.
1206 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge currently centered over the lower Colorado River valley will slowly edge east today resulting in minor height rises overhead.
Expect humid conditions to persist across the region tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s.
A cold front stretching from near Duluth into southwest Minnesota is dividing the seasonably warm air to the north to the hot and humid air to the south, where temperatures have risen into the lower and middle 90s. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday/Independence Day as the primary upper trough approaches from the north.
A slow moving upper level trough will push through Pennsylvania early this week, bringing additional isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Tuesday.
1201 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A deep positively tilted upper level trough extends from a low near the Hudson Bay down through western WY to Idaho. Towards sunset, these storms will begin to weaken and move east into the overnight hours with the cold front nearing the Montana state line. Behind the cold front will be scattered rain showers and cooler temperatures for the afternoon and evening.
218 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A slow moving upper level trough will push through Pennsylvania early this week.
140 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Upper ridging is continuing to get suppressed southward, as an upper trough extends from Ohio to Texas. Another ridge was developing near Las Vegas, with troughing over the Pacific Northwest. With the upper ridge breaking down, at least temporarily, we'll transition into a bit of a wetter pattern, although it won't be very noticeable today.
1215 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A weak cold front is moving very slowly south across the area this morning. The frontal boundary will lift north as a warm front on Tuesday with more showers and thunderstorms expected to develop across the entire Mid-South.
930 AM PDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Slight cooling for today from the coast to the mountains, then greater but gradual cooling for this week as high pressure aloft weakens and onshore flow strengthens slightly.
So, the best chance of large hail or even an isolated tornado would be in Johnson County with any storms developing near the Bighorn Range moving into more humid air with the highest instability and bulk shear, with CAPE over 1000 J/Kg and lifted indices around minus 4. This also looks like a warm to hot day, with the warmer areas climbing close to 90. It will be a contrast across the area for Tuesday as the the cold front settles near the Continental Divide. South of the front, temperatures will remain warmer as will the chance of stronger thunderstorm with another wave crossing the area. Further north, it will be MUCH cooler with high temperatures possibly 30 degrees cooler than today along with much more cloud cover.
Weak cold front crosses this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be bountiful this afternoon into the evening due to a stalled front to our south and a cold front trudging in from the west. This trend will continue through the evening, but shower activity will eventually become confined to the mountains as the cold front races eastward out of the area. Winds through the day will be a little on the gusty side, 8-10 mph with some gusts in the upper teens, some 20s along the ridge tops.
353 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A surface frontal boundary will remain along the coast today through Tuesday while upper level low pressure crosses the region.
RAP analysis indicates positively tilted trough over the central Plains to Texas, helping continued broad ascent persist across the region. With widespread cloudiness, highs will only peak into the low-mid 90s, with heat indices peaking near 105 degrees, especially for areas along & west of I-55 & southeast along the Hwy 49 to I-59 corridors. Showers & isolated storm chances will persist into the evening hours, with lows falling near or slightly above normal, into the low to mid 70s. With near tropical deep moisture parked over the region Tuesday, highs will be limited closer to normals in the low 90s.
High temperatures in the low to mid 90s are expected this afternoon, around 90 along the coast.
221 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Cooler than normal temperatures are forecast through tomorrow. Upper level trofing rotating around an upper level area of lower heights located overhead the Canadian Saskatchewan Province cycles through our area today and tomorrow. Northerly winds behind a surface front offer cooler than normal temperatures to The Treasure State from the north.
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 60s. an upper level trough and its associated cold front are forecast to move through the area during the afternoon and overnight hours.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: -Increasing chances for precipitation -Heat Advisory possible again tomorrow Not much change to the forecast as a mid-level high across the Desert Southwest and another one over the eastern Gulf will keep a trough in place stretched from the Great Lakes to central Texas.
Lows will drop off into the lower 70s. High pressure over the Desert Southwest will nudge eastward into west Texas on Tuesday. It'll be a few degrees warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 90s.
Storms are expected to develop along a cold front that will push into the area near 6 PM.
Weather Overview: Surface analysis shows the cold front is snagged up over the SD/NE/WY borders. Satellite shows much of the warm sector devoid of clouds with only a few CU fields showing up close to frontal boundary and over the higher terrain out across Albany and Carbon counties. The leeside trough remains on track which will keep a consistent northeast to easterly flow which will push dewpoints into the 50s across SE Wyoming and approach the 60F mark for parts of the Nebraska Panhandle. HI-RES and CAM models have been in agreement in the overall initiation point and evolution of the convection tomorrow with most storms firing over the higher terrain across southern Albany county and moving east into Laramie county as pseudo discrete supercells with a few storm clusters pushing into the Nebraska Panhandle.
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A weak upper level trough has flattened our flow aloft from the previous ridging which prevailed for days. This is allowing a weak, poorly defined cold front to make its way through eastern KY this afternoon. On Tuesday night a very weak upper level trough will push in from the west. This impulse will lead a much larger positively tilted longwave trough running across much of the northern third of the CONUS and into Canada.
(This evening through Tuesday) Barring a few showers and storms later today, a much quieter evening is in the works as upper ridging draws closer from the Desert Southwest. Heights and thicknesses build for July Fourth as the upper ridge expands ENE from its parent high in western New Mexico.
Upper ridge has shifted off the coast of South Carolina. Southwest flow aloft across the area with embedded weak short wave troughs noticeable on Water Vapor satellite. Low level convergence is weak but may become focused in a few areas this afternoon, the Piedmont trough and in the coastal Plain associated with the sea breeze. near sea breeze and in the west near Piedmont trough or northeast GA then converging in the central Midlands this evening. Weak upper troughiness will shift across the region through the period, with atmospheric moisture progged to remain high. Latest guidance suggests generally mid 90s for highs Tuesday, with afternoon dewpoints in the lower 70s, possibly mid 70s. Weak upper troughiness and high atmospheric moisture remains in place through the period, with another weak surface boundary entering the region.
Otherwise, south winds will develop Tuesday, as a weak mid/upper- level trough approaches the region. Some increase in low-level moisture is expected and with some support from the trough, isolated to scattered convection is expected in areas generally southwest of a Mt Vernon Illinois to Greenville Kentucky line. This should mostly be diurnally-driven, but with the presence of the upper trough, a few isolated showers or storms could linger through the evening, potentially impacting some fireworks displays. This will take readings into the lower half of the 90s throughout the region.
1242 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Looking at upper air plots from this morning, height falls continue at the mid and upper levels of the forecast area as the upper level ridge continues to weaken and flatten over the region.
(This evening through Tuesday) A ridge over the northern Gulf and a trough over the Great Lakes will put Alabama in a fairly consistent westerly flow aloft and southwesterly flow in the low levels. This low level flow will advect more than enough moisture for PW values to be in the 90th percentile, if not at max today and tomorrow afternoon. Warm air will also be advected, but with the amount of cloud cover over the area (thanks to the large amounts of moisture available in the air), temps likely won't reach higher than the lower 90s for highs today and Tuesday.
The cold front that worked through the area last night is rather diffuse today, but is a focus of storm development down in northern Alabama.
Mostly clear skies remain across the region, with current temperatures running between 4 and 12 degrees cooler than compared to 24 hours ago. Even though temperatures are 'cooler' than those observed this past weekend, temperatures are still unseasonable warm and are forecast to peak later this afternoon with upper 90s to low 100s in the Valley, mid to upper 90s in the foothills, and 80s to 90s in the mountains.
CAMS have picked up a signal of scattered showers/thunder tomorrow morning as the surface boundary lifts as a warm front and as a weak H500 vorticity lobe descends from southern Kansas.
1040 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A weak cold front is moving very slowly south across the area this morning. The frontal boundary will lift north as a warm front on Tuesday with more showers and thunderstorms expected to develop across the entire Mid-South.
1024 AM MDT Mon Jul 3 2023 08z surface analysis had low near KSHR with cold front eastward along the SD/ND border into eastern ND. Cold front slips slowly southward this morning, bisecting the CWA by 18z. Attention then turns to upper trough dropping into the northern Rockies/plains. Today/tonight, upper trough drops into MT/WY with what looks like two embedded waves. Low will arrest the southward movement of the cold front, stalling just northeast/east of the Black Hills by early afternoon. As upper trough approaches, hodographs lengthen with 40kts 0-6km bulk shear forecast on cool side of boundary. Temperatures tricky today with potential for significantly lower temperatures north of the cold front. Tuesday, upper trough moves through the CWA with moist cyclonic flow and weak buoyancy.
1159 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) The upper-level ridge begins to slowly slide eastward towards the Southern Great Plains early this week. Today temperatures are expected to be a touch warmer for everyone as heights increase. In terms of precipitation, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected across the higher elevations and across Southeast New Mexico. Everyone can expect temperatures to be a couple degrees warmer than Monday.
High pressure at the sfc and aloft is building in this afternoon helping this cause. The trigger still looks to be a weak thermal trough over the land area between U. -127, between the two mesoscale ridges over the cooler lakes. The fog threat for tonight looks lower than last night with drying in the lower levels expected with good mixing. We should stay dry then Tuesday night as the low level jet, upper level dynamics, and sfc front stay far enough west to likely not have an impact here yet by then.
A slow moving upper level trough will push through Pennsylvania early this week, bringing additional isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Tuesday (the 4th).
Tomorrow (Tuesday) will be cooler than normal with the coolest Fourth of July since 2004.
942 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Isolated precipitation chances are expected for the 4th of July as ridge builds to our west.
However, with an upper-level trough extending across the Red River Valley of north Texas into Oklahoma, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through midnight across the entire Four State region. Expect humid conditions to persist across the region tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s.
927 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A surface frontal boundary will remain along the coast through Tuesday while upper level low pressure crosses the region.
1020 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Low pressure will depart the Ohio Valley to the northeast tonight. A weak ridge of high pressure will bring mainly dry conditions to the region outside of very isolated late day showers on the 4th and 5th.
742 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to advance through the region this evening and into the overnight time period with an exiting upper-level trough. Precipitation chances diminish for the 4th of July as ridge builds to our west. Probability of precipitation will likely be focused near the ridges. Evening Discussion: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move through the region this evening as an upper-lvl trough slowly continues to track east. This is likely related to weaker ascent as ridging builds to our west. Although trough moves to east coast on Tuesday, guidance does show low chances of showers continuing in northwest upslope flow with highest probabilities in the higher terrain of the south and east. With more sunshine and rising heights expect readings a bit higher and into the lower 80s most locations.
Showers and thunderstorms will be bountiful this afternoon into the evening due to a stalled front to our south and a cold front trudging in from the west. This trend will continue through the evening, but shower activity will eventually become confined to the mountains as the cold front races eastward out of the area. Winds through the day will be a little on the gusty side, 8-10 mph with some gusts in the upper teens, some 20s along the ridge tops.
Winds emerge modestly from the southwest as high pressure builds across the area. * None Lower tropospheric low pressure system washes out over Lake Erie this evening amidst minor mid-level height rises preceding the establishment of split-flow across Lower Michigan. Light winds organize out of the west-southwest Independence Day under more cohesive ridging. Negligible change in surface dewpoints combined with the warmer conditions reduces the potential for meaningful instability, therefore lower confidence in isolated convective activity for Tuesday afternoon/evening is now reflected in latest PoPs.
725 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 (Rest of today through Tuesday) A mid-level ridge of high pressure associated with the greater Bermuda high over the northern Atlantic continues to hold over the region. While this ridge is not enough to completely shut off convective activity, it will help keep a warm airmass over the region which will make conditions ripe for heat index values in the triple digits each day before the rain from showers and thunderstorms have a chance to provide some relief.
645 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) High pressure continues to hold court over the Southwest US, including West Texas. Tomorrow will be fairly similar to today with the biggest difference that highs end up a couple to a few degrees warmer in the mid to upper 90s for most.
Very hot above normal daytime temperatures for early July will continue this week under high pressure aloft.
Weak upper troughiness will shift across the region through the period, with atmospheric moisture progged to remain high. Latest guidance suggests generally mid 90s for highs Tuesday, with afternoon dewpoints in the lower 70s, possibly mid 70s. Weak upper troughiness and high atmospheric moisture remains in place through the period, with another weak surface boundary entering the region.
625 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Barring a few showers and storms later today, a much quieter evening is in the works as upper ridging draws closer from the Desert Southwest. Heights and thicknesses build for July Fourth as the upper ridge expands ENE from its parent high in western New Mexico.
539 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A deep positively tilted upper level trough extends from a low near the Hudson Bay down through western WY to Idaho. Towards sunset, these storms will begin to weaken and move east into the overnight hours with the cold front nearing the Montana state line. Behind the cold front will be scattered rain showers and cooler temperatures for the afternoon and evening.
Outside of storm development, conditions overnight will be relatively quiet with lows in the low to mid 70s.
High pressure will build over Arizona, bringing hot, dry, and breezy conditions through the rest of the week. The high is cresting over the region and will makes its way to the east over the coming days. Highs will remain in the upper 80s to mid 90s through the mountains and in the upper 90s/low 100s to 115 across the lowest valleys.
651 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 A surface frontal boundary will remain along the coast through Tuesday while upper level low pressure crosses the region.
655 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Weak high pressure will build across the the region tonight into Tuesday. Another cold front will arrive later in the week. The cold front appears to be located roughly along the US 30 corridor at this time. The boundary will stall and wash out over the Ohio Valley tonight as surface ridging builds in from the northern Great Lakes, so expect the leftover activity to quickly fade with sunset as drier air works in. Lingering low level moisture, small dew point depressions, and light and variable winds as high pressure builds in will give way to fog development areawide overnight tonight. Mainly clear and quiet for Tuesday as high pressure builds over the area from the south.
Otherwise, a cold front tonight helps bring temperatures down a few degrees for Independence Day festivities tomorrow.
635 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: -Increasing chances for precipitation -Heat Advisory possible again tomorrow Not much change to the forecast as a mid-level high across the Desert Southwest and another one over the eastern Gulf will keep a trough in place stretched from the Great Lakes to central Texas.
427 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2023 Upper level analysis shows compact upper low over east-central SK/western MB with cyclonic flow aloft over the Northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extends from southeastern SD through southern SD, along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills and into northeastern WY. Transient mesocyclones are possible with these storms -- and a severe hail threat -- although severe winds will be the primary severe weather hazard with this convection. The front will surge southward early Tuesday followed by a cooler air mass and rain/storms through the day Tuesday.