Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
539 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 An upper trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. Even after the low clouds are gone, NAM/RAP layer RH profiles indicate high clouds streaming across the area overnight. Despite high pressure building overhead and winds becoming light/variable, at least partial cloud cover will help mitigate optimal radiational cooling. It will still be a cold night with lows in the lower 20s, but do not think readings will drop quite as far as they could under completely clear skies. After a period of high clouds during the morning, skies will become sunny across the board by Monday afternoon as highs rebound into the lower to middle 40s.
542 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper trough is now east of the area, with dry northwesterly flow prevailing through tonight. Clear and cold conditions will occur again tonight, with lows mainly in the low to mid 30s.
- Modestly warmer and continued dry through mid to late week.
946 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 In the wake of a cold front a cold northwest flow will offer cloudy conditions with a few flurries or light snow showers late in the day into this evening, mainly north of Interstate 70. High pressure builds into the region on Monday, with decreasing clouds and continued cool temperatures. Mid level trof axis to pivot thru the area this evening. Chilly temperatures will drop to lows tonight that will range from the lower 20s over Eastern Indiana to the upper 20s over Central Ohio.
Some areas will likely dip into the 28-32 degree range early Monday morning, however other locations will remain above freezing. With some uncertainty in the wind influence, and given most counties where freezing temperatures are likely will not see these conditions across the entire county, we have opted to start with an SPS for all but Val Verde County (where NBM freeze probabilities are less than 40% essentially county- wide and almost no forecast pixels reach freezing at this time) and allow the day shift to further evaluate.
The high clouds have been thin enough to allow for some good radiational cooling in the valleys south of the Umpqua Divide (south of Glendale) and also east of the Cascades. It should be noted that areas along Highway 97 this morning from around Chiloquin northward have a slight chance of freezing rain. It will be a race though this morning with temperatures rising to near or above freezing as the air mass moistens and precipitation moves in. By afternoon, temperatures should rise sufficently above freezing to end the threat.
There will be a 50-80% chance of gusts >25mph east of highway 83 this afternoon and less than 20% chance of gusts this high west of highway 83.
339 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2023 IR depicts ample cloud cover spilling over the upper level ridge across the Pacific northwest extending into the western parts of the CWA. Probabilistic data concur greatly on this occurrence, with the highest probabilities for higher end snow amounts for the higher elevations. As the main upper level trough and associated cold front near for Monday, winds will diminish as the gradient weakens.
540 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 (Today) A strong cold front continued moving ESE across the region. Dewpoints over NE AL have fallen into the mid 50s, down from the lower 60s Sat evening.
(Today through Monday Night) Clouds are gradually working their way to the coast and offshore this morning as dry air works its way in with the associated high pressure. Expect today to be much quieter than yesterday, with sunny skies and much cooler temperatures. A few locations further inland and in northern counties will likely get below freezing tonight. This may necessitate a Freeze Warning for locations that have yet to experience a widespread freeze; however, it is very borderline, and temperatures are not expected to stay below freezing for more than a couple of hours.
442 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2023 - High winds up to 80 mph in the higher mountains and Front Range Foothills today.
545 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Key Messages: * Cooler more seasonable temperatures with easing winds * Mainly dry conditions forecast other than maybe a few flurries in northwest Indiana this afternoon and a brief period of lake effect snow showers for northeast Porter County Blustery conditions continue early this morning with temperatures in the lower to mid 30s with winds gusting to around 25-30 mph resulting in wind chills in the 20s. Winds gradually ease with time through the daylight hours as the pressure gradient begins to relax and the low-level jet weakens. If this were to occur, forecast low temperatures may be too cold (currently in the low to mid 20s) and may need to be nudged up by a few degrees.
Moving into the early to mid week ahead, reinforcing ridging aloft looks to build into the region with increasing heights aloft.
633 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 (Today and tonight) Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected today ahead of and along an approaching strong cold front. Dew points have trended warmer than previous forecast this morning, supporting perhaps more instability than previously forecast. Much cooler and drier air will push into the region after the front with breezy northwest winds.
Little in the way of accumulation expected with temperatures solidly above freezing through mid evening. Secondary mid level short wave energy trailing this initial wave will advance across Se Mi late this afternoon/evening and will maintain broader mid level troughing across the Great Lakes region through tonight. With the mid level trough passing east of the area on Monday, mid level confluence/subsidence will expand across Lower Mi. The low level flow will back toward the southwest late Monday/Monday night, driving a warmer and drier low level airmass into Se Mi which will promote a clearing trend.
352 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Today through tonight: The primary weather story in the near term for the forecast area will be the much cooler temperatures expected to continue moving in behind a departing cold front. A sharp thermal trough will move steadily across the area today with a tight pressure gradient supporting blustery conditions as temperatures struggle to reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. For tonight, high pressure will become centered over the area.
544 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Today through tonight: The primary weather story in the near term for the forecast area will be the much cooler temperatures expected to continue moving in behind a departing cold front. A sharp thermal trough will move steadily across the area today with a tight pressure gradient supporting blustery conditions as temperatures struggle to reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. For tonight, high pressure will become centered over the area.
511 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 (Today) High pressure will allow for a pleasant December day across the region with high temperatures near or slightly below seasonal averages (lower 50s/ upper 40s).
Mid-level high pressure begins to build back over the Central Plains today. Today will be sunny and cool as highs are forecast to be in the lower to middle 40s.
Aloft, robust H500 troughing is set to quickly pivot towards a more neutral to slightly negative tilt, and lift N/Ewrd thru Sun and Mon. At the sfc, strong high pressure wl be settling in over the Srn Cntrl US, w/ a continental dry airmass overspreading the FA alongside breezy N/Wrly winds.
505 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 - Seasonal temperatures the next few days, then warmer again late this week.
315 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 An upper trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. Even after the low clouds are gone, NAM/RAP layer RH profiles indicate high clouds streaming across the area overnight. Despite high pressure building overhead and winds becoming light/variable, at least partial cloud cover will help mitigate optimal radiational cooling. It will still be a cold night with lows in the lower 20s, but do not think readings will drop quite as far as they could under completely clear skies. After a period of high clouds during the morning, skies will become sunny across the board by Monday afternoon as highs rebound into the lower to middle 40s.
255 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2023 - High winds up to 80 mph in the higher mountains and Front Range Foothills today.
656 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 (Today through Monday) Conditions start becoming unsettled today as a strong mid level trough progresses across the eastern US, pushing a cold front across the SE US and the Florida peninsula. The front will clear our area by early Monday morning and an area of high pressure will start to build in from the SE US. This should usher a brief period of dry, quiet weather as cooler, drier air advects over our area.
(Today and tonight) The upper trough is now east of the area, with dry northwesterly flow prevailing through tonight. Clear and cold conditions will occur again tonight, with lows mainly in the low to mid 30s.
Ground temps are in the 30s after the recent warmer weather, and with solar radiation warming road sfcs, roads should be largely just wet until sunset.
The High Wind Warning issued for Cascade and Judith Basin Counties issued earlier this evening lasts through this morning as the wave propagates eastward across the region. Current satellite observations shows a broad upper level wave rounding out the upper level ridge this morning. Better chances for mainly light snow showers across the lower elevations throughout the plains arrive Monday morning, as a cold front from Canada slides southward through the state. The quick nature of the cold front pushing southward will keep accumulations limited. Slight accumulations on roadways can have an impact on Monday morning's commute with temperatures near or below freezing throughout the event. High pressure builds in behind this system Monday evening.
(Today) A strong cold front continued moving ESE across the region. Dewpoints over NE AL have fallen into the mid 50s, down from the lower 60s Sat evening.
604 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 - Seasonal temperatures the next few days, then warmer again late this week.
Drier and a bit warmer through the week ahead. Through Tonight: Mid-level high pressure settles into the region.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Key Messages: - Dry with seasonal to slightly above average temperatures through the week Discussion: A quiet, dry, slightly warmer than average forecast is the story for the upcoming week. We end the week on a high note, temperature wise, with highs approaching 50 degrees with southerly flow into the area ahead of a western US trough.
High pressure will then build in for most of the week bringing cool and dry weather once again. A cold front will move through the area overnight, preceded by scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 40s after the front passes with highs Monday in the low to mid 50s.
1101 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 (Rest of Today) The cold front prompting last nights rain and storms has moved through the area and is currently draped across NW GA through middle AL into the FL Panhandle. In the wake of the aformentioned cold front, high pressure builds in reinforcing the arrival of cooler, drier air. This will be immediately felt as highs are only forecast to reach the high 40s/low 50s today. Unfortunately that means that despite temps in the 50s, winds will create an apparent temp in the low 40s for the entire day.
- Clipper moving through tomorrow will push a cold front down, bringing some snow showers and patchy blowing snow. Surface ridging over MN will shift further southeast, allowing southerly winds. While this clipper system will not produce a lot of moisture, it will push another cold front down into the area during the day on Monday. Model signal for snow falling does not look very high, but continued to keep some 15 to 20 percent POPs for snow showers developing as the cold front moves through. Temps will fall behind the cold front, with some single digits possible Monday night although much will depend on cloud cover which has not been well handled lately.
Gusty winds and cooler temperatures continues to move in the wake of a cold front. In addition to gusty winds, more cooler air will advect into the region throughout the afternoon. /SW/ Today through tonight: The primary weather story in the near term for the forecast area will be the much cooler temperatures expected to continue moving in behind a departing cold front. A sharp thermal trough will move steadily across the area today with a tight pressure gradient supporting blustery conditions as temperatures struggle to reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. For tonight, high pressure will become centered over the area.
A weak cold front enters the northern Permian Basin tomorrow providing little more than a northeasterly wind shift. Temperatures behind the front are unlikely to be any cooler than ahead of the front so highs will reach near climatological norms for everyone.
Outside of the low lying areas, lows will be mainly in the 30 to 35 degree range.
For our eastern counties, clouds are propagating NE along the cold front boundary that moved through our area yesterday. For our NW AL and TN counties, an increasing cumulus field is moving in associated with the southern extent of secondary low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes region. Tonight, our influence will switch to high pressure off to our SW. The cooler and drier air will drop temperatures and dew points into the mid 20s.
(Rest of Today) The cold front prompting last nights rain and storms has moved through the area and is currently draped across NW GA through middle AL into the FL Panhandle. In the wake of the aformentioned cold front, high pressure builds in reinforcing the arrival of cooler, drier air. This will be immediately felt as highs are only forecast to reach the high 40s/low 50s today. Unfortunately that means that despite temps in the 50s, winds will create an apparent temp in the low 40s for the entire day.
The passage of the trough combined with daytime heating will bring potential for a few inconsequential widely scattered light rain/snow showers, although confidence in occurrence remains low attm. Prevailing westerly winds becoming northwesterly with the trough passage. Secondary mid level short wave energy trailing this initial wave will advance across Se Mi late this afternoon/evening and will maintain broader mid level troughing across the Great Lakes region through tonight. With the mid level trough passing east of the area on Monday, mid level confluence/subsidence will expand across Lower Mi. The low level flow will back toward the southwest late Monday/Monday night, driving a warmer and drier low level airmass into Se Mi which will promote a clearing trend.
140 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2023 138 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2023 - Cold front could bring light snow to the northern Black Hills and southwestern parts of the CWA Mon/Tues. The latest water vapor images and 500-mb analysis showed an upper ridge over the western CONUS with a trough over the eastern CONUS, leaving the northern plains beneath northwest flow aloft. At the surface, a trough axis was over western SD, with much less wind than the last few days. At the same time, an upper-level Canadian low pressure will flatten the ridge as it swings southeastward tonight into Monday. Its associated cold front will sweep through the CWA Monday afternoon and evening, resulting in some breezy NW winds, along with some light upslope snow over the northern BH.
High temperatures will warm up into the lower 50s/upper 40s this afternoon.
High pressure is centered over west Texas with dry weather expected to continue across the Mid-South. A cold front has pushed through dropping our temperatures with highs in the 40s to low 50s and lows in the mid 20s to low 30s today. As a high pressure will soon over our area, dry, calm weather will set in, and continue through at least mid-week.
1105 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 (Today through Monday Night) Clouds are gradually working their way to the coast and offshore this morning as dry air works its way in with the associated high pressure. Expect today to be much quieter than yesterday, with sunny skies and much cooler temperatures. A few locations further inland and in northern counties will likely get below freezing tonight. This may necessitate a Freeze Warning for locations that have yet to experience a widespread freeze; however, it is very borderline, and temperatures are not expected to stay below freezing for more than a couple of hours.
1130 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 - Seasonal temperatures the next few days, then warmer again late this week.
1247 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 A cold front will move off the Carolina coast tonight as colder air filters in from the northwest. Dry high pressure then settles over the region on Monday and persists through the work week. There will still be another slug of decent rainfall rates this evening ahead of a passing cold front and this could create localized hydro issues along the srn escarpment. the advancing upper trough should go negative tilt this evening, slightly slowing the back edge of the precipitation through the evening hours. Breezy to windy conditions will occur elsewhere, but with gusts below advisory criteria at all but the highest elevations.
Temperatures will still be on the cool side of climatology, as highs only rise into the low/mid 40s, but the sunshine and lighter winds should make it a bit more manageable vs the conditions we're dealing with today.
The precip should start to come to an end as dry air filters in quickly behind the front and drop temperatures into the low 30s for much of the area with upper 20s in far northeast GA. Due to the rainfall moving through much quicker than initially anticipated, the lingering precip will have moved on before temperatures get below freezing thus our snowfall chances for the north GA mountains has decreased.
(Tonight through Monday night) Winds will continue to die down across the area into tonight as the responsible trough continues to eject eastward. The mid and upper level flow will become more zonal as we head into tomorrow with a weak mid-level ridge beginning to nudge into Texas tomorrow night. Temperatures will dip down into the 30s tonight across much of the region with portions of McMullen and Live Oak Counties seeing temperatures just below freezing for a few hours.
1002 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 - Seasonal temperatures the next few days, then warmer again late this week.
Calmer, and notably cooler, weather is slowly making its way through the forecast area behind yesterday's impactful severe weather. At the beginning of the period northwesterly winds and building high pressure will reinforce the cold air from yesterdays frontal passage. Temperatures tonight could reach into the low 20s but higher clouds should prevent a more substantial radiative cooling event.
A cold front is draped across the Florida Panhandle and stretches southwest into the Bay of Campeche. The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled falling heights at all SGLs, highlighting the approaching long wave trough and the retreat of the low level ridging. Changes are on the way though, with cooler and drier air arriving overnight. Moderate to fresh breezes will slacken this afternoon and evening, becoming northwest to north overnight as a cold front moves through the Florida Keys coastal waters.
1242 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 In the wake of a cold front a cold northwest flow will offer cloudy conditions with a few flurries or light snow showers late in the day into this evening, mainly north of Interstate 70. High pressure builds into the region on Monday, with decreasing clouds and continued cool temperatures. Mid level trof axis to pivot thru the area this evening. Chilly temperatures will drop to lows tonight that will range from the lower 20s over Eastern Indiana to the upper 20s over Central Ohio.
Expect clear and cold conditions to continue for the rest of today as high pressure starts moving in later today and tonight.
(This evening through Monday Night) With the ArkLaTex still situated on the western side of the trough responsible for this weekend's severe weather, upper level flow will still be firmly northwesterly through the evening and overnight, maintaining cold air advection areawide, and sustaining the dry airmass which has overtaken the region today. As pseudo- zonal flow aloft makes way for an area of ridging to shift eastward across the southern CONUS. Highs Monday afternoon will be a smidge warmer than today's, climbing into the middle 50s northeast to lower 60s southwest, followed by a warmer (though arguably still quite chilly) night of lows dropping into the lower 30s northeast to mid to upper 30s southwest.
Highs on Monday are expected to be in the 50's to the lower 60's.
There is also a slight chance (less than 25 percent) of pockets of freezing rain or sleet in some isolated valleys of Baker County and far northern Malhuer County.
Current satellite and upper air obs show a major trough axis from the Hudson Bay extending through the Great Lakes region into the southeastern CONUS which is keeping a storm system stretched along the eastern seaboard. Northwest flow predominates across the center of the country with a broad ridge over the western CONUS. The only moisture remains well aloft in the atmosphere with a few mid to high clouds spilling over the western ridge and streaming into the area for the balance of the afternoon.
With surface temperatures right at or just above freezing, the mist/drizzle has not contributed to any additional icing like what occurred in northwestern Illinois this morning. With continued subsidence behind the low-level wave responsible for the ongoing drizzle as well as modest thermal mixing induced by the low-angle sunshine, the hole in stratus may continue growing while moving into northwestern Illinois this afternoon and evening. If we clear up quickly, overnight lows may fall into the lower 20s if not upper teens. However, if clouds manage to hold on (as would be suggested by the RAP/HRRR), overnight lows will hold steady near or just below the freezing mark. Interestingly, the RAP/HRRR also show splotches of QPF overnight which would manifest as freezing drizzle.
(Through Tonight) A chilly and quiet night is on tap for tonight, with winds returning to a southerly direction across parts of northeast Oklahoma as the axis of high pressure currently extending across the forecast area shifts to the east. Overnight lows should be closer to MOS guidance than the warmer NBM values, especially in the typical colder locales and closer to the ridge axis in southeast Oklahoma. Cloud cover will increase toward mid week, as an upper level low in the southwestern United States begins to make its slow approach toward the south central part of the country.
This will continue to support low cloud develop on the backside of the departing cyclone. /JLH (Now through Monday) A highly amplified mid and upper level trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to gradually shift eastward through the day. Low clouds should eventually scatter out late this afternoon and evening as drier air advects southeastward in the low levels and overall isentropic descent wins out. Clear and cool conditions will continue on Monday as high pressure builds back over the forecast area.
The setup is still not ideal with inversion heights not much higher than 4K feet and inversion top temperatures not much cooler than -10C to -11C. In addition, a subtle synoptic forcing boost/moisture enhancement is expected over the next several hours as an impulse within the mean upper-level trof overhead slides across the area.
1049 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2023 - High winds up to 80 mph in the higher mountains and Front Range Foothills today.
1147 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper trough is now east of the area, with dry northwesterly flow prevailing through tonight. Clear and cold conditions will occur again tonight, with lows mainly in the low to mid 30s.