Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
330 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A prototypical, springtime, stable surface anticyclone is centered over portions of James/Hudson Bay. Have witnessed a fractured/split structure to the cold front with multiple temperature and dewpoint gradients, something that can be very typical along the edges of these very high static stability anticyclones. Surface dewpoints in the wake of this cold front are solidly in the lower 40s. The well mixed boundary layer environment post cold front was/has been very well mixed with overachieving surface winds reaching and exceeding 30 mph at times. Plan view of mslp shows a lake aggregate ridge extension encompassing all of the area at 12Z Thursday. Some raw model output suggests some potnetial for rural areas to drop into the lower to middle 30s.
1228 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 An unseasonably chilly airmass will move into the region tonight with an accompanying Canadian high pressure system ensuring that temperatures will remain below normal through the end of the work week. as expansive high pressure centered near James Bay will circulate progressively cooler and drier air southwards in to our region.
1246 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 High pressure will build from the north through Thursday.
306 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Dry weather and gusty winds are forecast for tonight as a cold front passes south.
(Tonight) Mostly clear, calm, and dry weather is expected overnight with high pressure at the surface the most dominant feature influencing our weather.
Despite consistently modeled developing low pressure aloft over the Southeast U. Dew points should stay in the 40s and 50s here thru the holiday weekend, even as highs begin to creep back into the lower 80s. While the rain chance is not necessarily zero due to the near proximity of the low, the sustenance of drier air makes it low enough to preclude from the forecast thru the holiday.
High temperatures this afternoon are expected to be in the mid-60s to the lower 70s across the area, with lakeshore regions in the low 50s. High pressure will build into the region on Thursday, with lighter easterly winds and clear skies. Cooler temperatures are expected once again, with highs in the 50s near the lake and highs in the mid-60s to lower 70s inland.
1129 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 (Rest of Today) A weak area of high pressure remains in place from the Mid Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley, which is helping to promote mostly clear and dry weather across our area this morning. A light northeast breeze will help to keep temperatures in check somewhat, but plentiful sunshine will still warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s.
1143 AM MDT Wed May 24 2023 08Z analysis depicts an upper trough over the western CONUS with a ridge over the great plains, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft over the western parts of the forecast area. The overall pattern will change little over the next several days as the upper trough remains over the west coast states and the ridge over middle of the country drifts slowly eastward over the Mississippi river valley. Warmer than average temperatures will continue, with gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms heading into the holiday weekend.
616 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A cold front currently pushing through the area is bringing rain showers across Central NY. Drier conditions will begin tomorrow as high pressure builds into the area, and a warming trend is expected heading into the Memorial Day weekend. Cold front has almost exited the region and temperatures have dropped into the upper 40s to low 50s behind the front. Clouds will clear from north to south later this evening and temperatures are expected to drop into the low to mid 30s overnight. A cold front pushing southward into the area is bringing rain showers across Central NY. Cooler temperatures of high-50s/low-60s expected for tomorrow, with accompanying gusty northerly winds. High pressure will begin to build back into the area again, so dry conditions are expected.
Boundaries are still plentiful out there and aloft we still have an upper level trough swinging across our area.
608 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 High pressure will build from the north through Thursday. A coastal low pressure system will affect the area late week into the weekend. Weak high pressure will then build in. Broad mid to upper-level troughing will continue to dig into the Southeast U. Latest guidance shows a wave over western NC breaking off and heading south helping to re-orient the upper level trough axis. Large- scale forcing offshore associated with the upper trough will spawn convection across the outer marine waters tonight mainly beyond 20 nm. Expect temperatures to fall off pretty quickly tonight inland where dewpoints are now into the lower 30s in places.
Through Thursday, an upper trough with unseasonably low upper heights will hang out from the Carolinas back down across Georgia. This will bring low pressure development over the Atlantic east of Florida on Thursday, forcing low-level northeast flow across the region.
815 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 An unseasonably chilly airmass will move into the region tonight with an accompanying Canadian high pressure system ensuring that temperatures will remain below normal through the end of the work week. High pressure near James Bay will circulate progressively cooler and drier air southwards into our region. Winds will be lighter for all areas on Thursday night as the high will be overhead, so that could be a different story.
640 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) An upper level ridge will slide into the region tonight and build into the weekend.
The cold front will passing the region will keep temperatures cooler. The winds will remain gusty for the first half of the overnight period but as the frost moves southward and the high builds and the cold pool build the sfc will decouple. A cooler but dry day is in storm tomorrow.
606 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) A mid level short wave trough moving through north-central New Mexico will move through the ridge present over the Panhandles tonight. However, there are some indications that another round of thunderstorms may move into the Panhandles from the west in association with another short wave trough moving this way from eastern New Mexico.
Northeast winds around 5 mph to prevail overnight with temperatures forecast to fall into the low to mid 60s. Otherwise, another pleasant night is in store as temperatures slowly fall back into the lower to mid 60s for overnight lows with clouds largely diminishing in coverage after midnight. This has kept dew points in the lower to mid 60s range and consequently maintained comfortable humidity levels. The temperature pattern is expected to repeat again on Thursday night with lows bottoming out in the lower to mid 60s with cloud cover largely diminishing once again.
Night and morning clouds will persist before giving way to mostly sunny afternoons through the remainder of the week in response to an upper level trough over the West Coast. (This evening through Thursday) The Bay Area and Central Coast remain under the influence of a broad upper level trough.
719 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Below-normal temperature is expected through Thursday behind a cold front.
Troughing centered over central California the past few days is expected to push east over the Great Basin before the end of the week.
In the lower levels, enely winds and weak cold advection will continue tnt with low temps in the lower to middle 40s. Height rises are then expected for Thu afternoon into Fri as the upper ridge over the nrn Great Plains and Manitoba shifts to the wrn Great Lakes and broadens. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to be in the mid-60s to the lower 70s across the area, with lakeshore regions in the low 50s. High pressure will build into the region on Thursday, with lighter easterly winds and clear skies. Cooler temperatures are expected once again, with highs in the 50s near the lake and highs in the mid-60s to lower 70s inland.
Northeasterly flow further strengthens across our coastal waters as an area of low pressure develops off the central FL Atlantic coast resulting in potential frequent Gale force gusts.
1031 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 An unseasonably chilly airmass will move into the region tonight with an accompanying Canadian high pressure system ensuring that temperatures will remain below normal through the end of the work week. High pressure near James Bay will circulate progressively cooler and drier air southwards into our region. Winds will be lighter for all areas on Thursday night as the high will be more overhead, so that could be a different story.
623 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Cooler weather arrives tonight with lows near 40 and highs on Thursday in the upper 60s. Backdoor cold front has cleared our area with cold/dry air advection now underway. However, continued to lean on the cooler side of guidance with lows around 40F based on upstream obs/strong CAA. Thursday will be a wonderful day for those that prefer temps a little on the cooler side. Already starting to see some drought feedback issues with high temps trending warmer and dewpoints trending lower though. Upper low cuts into the SE CONUS this weekend with strong ridge holding firm over the Great Lakes. Winds remain out of the northeast and diminish a bit otherwise overnight into Thursday on the southern fringe of high pressure settling into Ontario and the northern Great Lakes.
Tonight, the cold front will continue to move southwestward into the MO River Valley region with a dry high pressure building into the region from the Great Lakes. Thursday, dry easterly winds at 10 to 20 MPH will continue, which will keep temperatures much cooler than those today.
729 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A cold front currently pushing through the area is bringing rain showers across Central NY. Drier conditions will begin tomorrow as high pressure builds into the area, and a warming trend is expected heading into the Memorial Day weekend. Cold front has almost exited the region and temperatures have dropped into the upper 40s to low 50s behind the front. Clouds will clear from north to south later this evening and temperatures are expected to drop into the low to mid 30s overnight. A cold front pushing southward into the area is bringing rain showers across Central NY. Cooler temperatures of high-50s/low-60s expected for tomorrow, with accompanying gusty northerly winds. High pressure will begin to build back into the area again, so dry conditions are expected.
An upper level trough has settled over the West Coast and will linger through Thursday.
933 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Dry weather and gusty winds are forecast for tonight as a cold front passes south.
737 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Broad troughing and drying high pressure will keep temperatures below normal under partly cloudy skies over the next few days.
949 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 PoPs have been adjusted downward throughout all inland areas as convective potential remains offshore due to a broad area of low pressure along the NE Gulf of Mexico. Cooler and relatively drier northerly air will begin making its way into the region throughout the overnight hours, and will continue to do so through the next few days. Despite the frontal passage, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer thanks to mostly sunny skies.
740 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Dry weather and gusty winds are forecast for tonight as a cold front passes south.
The showers will linger in south-central Idaho overnight supported by a short wave rotating around a large-scale upper trough over the region. Temperatures will be comparable, maybe a degree or two warmer than today.
827 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A dry, backdoor cold front will cross the area Thursday morning.
Another summerlike afternoon and evening across the area, but this daily convection continues to be mainly due to the upper level trough and pocket of associated cooler air aloft and not our typical summertime pattern. This trough combined with enough moisture, precipitable water around 1. The pattern continue to be dominated by the upper level trough, that will begin deepening into tomorrow, and a surface boundary extending from a low pressure system located in the Gulf of Mexico. Tomorrow the upper level trough deepens even further over the state allowing for 500mb temperatures to drop even lower, increasing the possibility for large hail. By the weekend, more dry air will be dragged into the area by the low pressure system in the Atlantic as it moves towards the Carolina coast.
650 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 (Tonight) Mostly clear, calm, and dry weather is expected overnight with high pressure at the surface the most dominant feature influencing our weather.
High pressure over Canada shifts south into the Great Lakes region today sending a backdoor cold front into the Ohio Valley. Expect some relief from the warm conditions we had today with highs on Thursday in the low to mid 70s. High pressure remains in control as we head into the weekend before starting to shift off to the east with a low over the SE US retrograding into the TN Valley. Winds will stay out of the N/NE keeping cooler temps and lower humidity over the region through the weekend.
(Tonight) High pressure centered over Ontario will keep northerly winds and slightly drier air in place overnight.
740 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A dry, backdoor cold front will cross the area Thursday morning.
806 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Aviation The cold front will passing the region will keep temperatures cooler. The winds will remain gusty for the first half of the overnight period but as the frost moves southward and the high builds and the cold pool build the sfc will decouple. A cooler but dry day is in storm tomorrow.
240 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 A cold front moving south across the Mid Atlantic could bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge this afternoon.
The main story will be the very low humidity readings from 15 to 30 percent, with the lowest across the far north. Highs will climb into the middle 60s to lower 70s, but cooler near Lake Michigan.
Northeasterly flow continue to bring drier air over southeast Georgia and northeast Florida throughout today as the area of low pressure over the Florida peninsula forms offshore and begins to progress northward. Daytime convection is expected to subside in the evening with overnight onshore flow associated with the developing low pressure system out over adjacent waters bringing showers with possible thunderstorms onshore by early Friday morning. High temperatures today will rise into the lower 80s with overnight low temperatures will drop down into the 60s over inland areas and in the lower 70s for areas along the coastline.
335 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 High pressure will continue to build into the North Country today and prevail into the upcoming holiday weekend.
High pressure will build south of the area Friday into the weekend.
100 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Below-normal temperature is expected today as cooler air moves down from the north.
1253 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) An upper level ridge will slide into the region tonight and build into the weekend.
These showers have developed in response to mid-level vorticity advection ahead of a lobe of the broad trough over the northeast CONUS. The precip will clear our area to the southeast by morning as the remainder of the trough pushes through. Perhaps we see our last 30s lows for awhile because upper- level ridging will center over the Great Lakes region this weekend.
300 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 * Cooler weather today with highs around 70 * Increased fire risk with dry and windy conditions Cooler, dry, and windy conditions expected for today as Canadian high pressure settles in over the region. High pressure will become centered over the Great Lakes the next couple days placing Indiana in an area with a strong northerly pressure gradient. Temperatures will also be noticeable cooler today with strong cold air advection in the lower levels. Models and ensembles are continuing the trend that the stagnant central CONUS ridge will likely keep an upper low that will develop in the southwest portion of trough, associated with a New England and Canadian Maritimes upper low, far enough southeast to keep showers away through Memorial Day.
135 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 A cold front moving south across the Mid Atlantic could bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge this afternoon.
HREF probabilistic data shows that this area (along and northwest of I-44) has the highest probability of getting some scattered convection this afternoon (25-45 percent coverage), but quickly diminishes during the early to mid evening hours. Very little to no shear in the atmosphere with weak wind fields for much of the atmosphere as upper ridging was located over much of the central CONUS. A back door cold front will be shifting in from the northeast on Thursday with drier air moving into the area behind the front.
337 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Dry air is in place as an upper trough is keeping flow northerly. This is likely to continue today and tonight as a cold front sags south. Skies should be fairly clear and nighttime lows should cool into the lower 60s.
129 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 An unseasonably chilly airmass will move into the region overnight with an accompanying Canadian high pressure system ensuring that temperatures will remain below normal through the end of the work week. High pressure near James Bay will circulate progressively cooler and drier air southwards into our region. Winds will be lighter for all areas on Thursday night as the high will be more overhead, so that could be a different story.
1223 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Dry conditions will begin today as high pressure builds into the area, and a warming trend heading into the Memorial Day weekend. Cold front has almost exited the region and temperatures have dropped into the upper 40s to low 50s behind the front. Clouds will clear from north to south later this evening and temperatures are expected to drop into the low to mid 30s overnight. A cold front pushing southward into the area is bringing rain showers across Central NY. Cooler temperatures of high-50s/low-60s expected for tomorrow, with accompanying gusty northerly winds. High pressure will begin to build back into the area again, so dry conditions are expected. The upper level trough moves east on Friday with strong ridging building in.
A steady NNE wind should limit frost formation, but there could be a few frosty areas or localized freezes in the sheltered low spots across the northern tier where mesonet obs are in the low to mid 30s. Anomalous +1-2SD MSLP Canadian high pressure will sink south from Ontario into the Great Lakes today. Very dry air will accompany the seasonably strong anticyclone with pWAT values -2 to -3SD below the mean. The low RH pattern has been persistent this month, providing many warm comfortable days and cool nights. Low temps in the lower 30s north to lower 40s in the southeast are 5-10F below late May climo. MaxT will trend +3-6F warmer vs. While trending warmer day over day, fcst highs are still ~ 2-4F below late May climo.
However easterly/onshore winds off the lake should keep it cooler by the lake. Will see another chilly night tonight under mostly clear skies, subsidence, and light winds, which will aid in ample radiative cooling and overnight lows bottoming out in the lower 40s with a few of the cooler locations dipping into the upper 30s.
222 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Currently a weak, dry cold front is laid out from northeast Miser, through the Metro East, and into southern Illinois. Most of the forecast area will end up on the cool side of the front with highs in the mid to upper 70s, while central and southeast Missouri will be south of the front and temperatures will peak in the low 80s. While the passage of the cold front through the remainder of the forecast area today will drop temperatures and dewpoints, the main thrust of dry air won't arrive until overnight Thursday into Friday. At the surface the high over the Great Lakes will persist through the weekend, and combined with the lack of moisture return, will keep the holiday weekend dry.
Through Thursday, an upper trough with unseasonably low upper heights will hang out from the Carolinas back down across Georgia. This will bring low pressure development over the Atlantic east of Florida on Thursday, forcing low-level northeast flow across the region. (Thursday night through Friday night) An area of low pressure developing off the NE Florida Coast will begin to shift our overall flow to northerly as we approach the weekend. Slightly cooler temps are expected Friday and will become more noticeable over the weekend as dewpoints drop under the continued advection of dry air.
Northerly surface winds will help to advect cooler and drier air into the region, especially the land areas.
Easterly flow originating from the Canadian high pressure system is advecting drier air into the eastern portions of Missouri. Instability looks a bit more limited today than yesterday (500-1000 J/kg of SB CAPE), with a more pronounced inverted V in the lower levels of forecast soundings suggesting the potential for enhanced outflow from the stronger storms. The front will introduce cooler drier air to the region, leading to seasonal temperatures on Friday.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this morning, closed upper-level low pressure sits over far northern New England with attendant troughing draped down the Eastern Seaboard. Amplified ridge axis over the nation's midsection will continue to slowly fold into the western Great Lakes through the near-term forecast period. Little in the way of sensible weather expected through the forecast period after a chilly start to the morning as aforementioned high pressure remains in control. Slow warming trend expected to begin today with high temperatures climbing back to the low-mid 60s for the vast majority of northern Michigan under sun-filled skies. Another chilly night ahead with calm winds prevailing pretty much area-wide as high pressure sits atop northern Michigan. Lows generally ranging from the low-mid 30s across interior areas with slightly "warmer" readings near the immediate shorelines.
At the surface level, a weak backdoor cold front is tracking through the lower Ohio Valley tonight while a strong high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. Expect a cooler/drier airmass to filter during the day with highs ranging from the low 70s in southern Indiana to the upper 70s in southern Kentucky, potentially 5-10 degrees lower than yesterday's highs.
Upper level ridging will prevail through the short-term period. Repeat weather for Friday as the upper level ridge strengthens over south Texas.
1250 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023 (Tonight) High pressure centered over Ontario will keep northerly winds and slightly drier air in place overnight.
A backdoor cold front is expected to work its way across the state by Friday morning bringing much drier air and fairly cool temperatures along with it.
355 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Below-normal temperature is expected today as cooler air moves down from the north.
352 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Northeastern CONUS trough will become a closed low over northern Maine with an associated ridge extending across the Great Lakes today. This will translate to a day with below normal temperatures in the low to mid 60s for inland areas and 50s across the Lake Huron shoreline areas.
With the gradually building mid/upper level ridge and gradually lowering precipitable water values heading into Friday and Friday night, will keep the forecast dry but some isolated spots could end up lucky and experience a brief shower/storm.
331 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Only item of note: * Chilly temperatures tonight (localized upper 30s interior northern IL) with a small chance of patchy frost Expansive seasonably strong Canadian high pressure will settle southward and center over the Great Lakes. With upper-level blocking remaining in place, a persistently dry pattern will continue through at least the end of May and potentially into the first week of June.