Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak high pressure ridge will maintain mostly clear to partly cloudy skies through Sunday. Marginal instability and daytime heating will initiate isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly over the higher terrain, today through Sunday.
Attention then turns to the main system tonight as the closed upper low moves into Minnesota. The upper low is expected to move across Wisconsin on Sunday. It will be much cooler on Sunday with highs in the upper 60s and 70s.
* Cold front brings cooler temperatures for Sunday with highs mostly in the 80s.
A cold front is progged to move through by Sunday morning. Dewpoints are inching up as well with some spots already touching the low 60s, which will start to make it feel a bit more humid today than previous days. Highs today should easily reach the low to middle 90s by this afternoon. The risk for severe weather is highly dependent on the location of convection late Saturday night / early Sunday morning and the cold front passage.
An elongated upper-level trough axis remains situated over the E CONUS as the subtropical ridge remains pushed fairly far to the east towards the central Atlantic Ocean.
A cold front to bring drier and more mild temperatures to start the work week.
1247 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 (Rest of Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley today with high pressure building into the area.
Weak upper level ridge overhead this evening pushing east. Set up in southwest flow aloft Sunday as ridge moves east and expect diurnal showers and thunderstorms to be more widespread Sunday afternoon.
1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 (Today through Sunday) The broad mid-level ridge will remain anchored over northern Mexico (Chihuahua/Coahuila and Durango states) and will continue to produce strong subsidence across Deep South Texas through the short term. Very warm conditions will continue tonight with lows dropping into the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
116 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Isolated showers and possibly a storm or two will be possible today, followed by more widespread showers and storms Sunday night with a passing cold front. WV imagery shows an upper low over the southern Great Lakes, which is progged to slowly drift ESE over the course of the day. The upper low will open and slowly exit the region tonight into Sunday.
1258 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Most recent Water Vapor and upper air analysis shows the upper low situated over eastern ND/SD border, with upper ridging over the Rockies. Can't rule out a severe storm near south central this afternoon, on the higher end of the CAPE with slightly better shear (25-35kts). Precipitation should exit the region this evening as the low tracks eastward into Minnesota, and we can expect dry conditions the remainder of the weekend. Mild upper ridging over the Rockies slides over our region overnight into Sunday, tempering precipitation chances to start the week.
212 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 An upper low will continue to track across the region through tonight, ending up over southern MN by early Sunday morning. Some diabatic heating underneath the upper low will lead to sct showers and storms this afternoon and early evening, a few of which could be low end severe due to marginal CAPE and steep lapse rates, particularly over eastern parts of the CWA. S/W ridging will then bring mostly dry conditions to the area for Mon/Tue.
For tonight, an upper low over the north central U. will drop a slightly cooler airmass down into the plains and foothills this evening. Upper ridging will move into Colorado from the west overnight and on Sunday.
Believe this will dissipate as the warm front moves through this evening.
(This evening through Sunday) A weak surface boundary/trough has pushed into far northwest Oklahoma with surface winds slightly veered ahead of it. A cold front, with drier air, is expected to move across parts of northern Oklahoma during the late overnight/early Sunday morning.
742 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Showers and thunderstorms continue in Central NY and northeast PA as low pressure west of the region tracks northeastward.
1030 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Showers and thunderstorms continue in Central NY and northeast PA as low pressure west of the region tracks northeastward.
A forecast update was done a little while ago to increase the area of showers and thunderstorms into the Snake Plain this evening as storms are now showing the potential to make it off the higher terrain.
Currently - The Keys are within a surface through lower level col between ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic, and troughing along the Atlantic Seaboard. The proximity of the trough to our north, along with ample instability and moisture allowed a phalanx of showers and thunderstorms to organize late this afternoon on our gulf and bay side waters. However, the Keys will remain close to the tail of the lower to mid level trough to our north. In addition, subtle troughing and increased moisture through the lower levels is expected to move in late tonight. Barring new convection, temperatures will likely drift upwards into the lower 80s due to the warm water temperatures and a prevailing breeze.
626 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 (This evening through Sunday) A weak surface boundary/trough has pushed into far northwest Oklahoma with surface winds slightly veered ahead of it. A cold front, with drier air, is expected to move across parts of northern Oklahoma during the late overnight/early Sunday morning.
908 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 An upper level trough of low pressure over New England will continue to lift northeast and away from the area.
An elongated upper trough is located over the region with the base of the trough centered just offshore.
An upper level ridge is in place over northern Mexico and Texas. The upper ridge will remain in place on Sunday. An upper low and trough will move east across the upper Midwest on Sunday. Trailing portion of associated cold front will move south into the northern Big Country by late afternoon. With ample sunshine, compressional warming effects ahead of the front and unusually strong 850mb thermal ridging, temperatures will soar into the 110-113 degree range for highs across the Concho Valley.
740 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Upper-level heights rise on Sunday will lead to drier weather and warmer temperatures.
With the influence of the last low pressure system now gone, persistent southwest flow is the story through the short term. Between disturbances, the ridge axis (currently through Texas) nudges westward slightly tomorrow.
636 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Forcing continues to decrease across western and central North Dakota as the upper level low spins slowly to the east across the eastern Dakotas and into the Upper Midwest. This is generating moderate to heavy rainfall along and south of the I94 corridor and east of Highway 85, as well as along and south of the Highway 200 corridor mainly east of Highway 83.
An upper low will continue to track across the region through tonight, ending up over southern MN by early Sunday morning. Some diabatic heating underneath the upper low will lead to sct showers and storms this afternoon and early evening, a few of which could be low end severe due to marginal CAPE and steep lapse rates, particularly over eastern parts of the CWA. S/W ridging will then bring mostly dry conditions to the area for Mon/Tue.
Forcing continues to decrease across western and central North Dakota as the upper level low spins slowly to the east across the eastern Dakotas and into the Upper Midwest. This is generating moderate to heavy rainfall along and south of the I94 corridor and east of Highway 85, as well as along and south of the Highway 200 corridor mainly east of Highway 83.
515 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Most recent Water Vapor and upper air analysis shows the upper low situated over eastern ND/SD border, with upper ridging over the Rockies. Can't rule out a severe storm near south central this afternoon, on the higher end of the CAPE with slightly better shear (25-35kts). Precipitation should exit the region this evening as the low tracks eastward into Minnesota, and we can expect dry conditions the remainder of the weekend. Mild upper ridging over the Rockies slides over our region overnight into Sunday, tempering precipitation chances to start the week.
700 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Showers and thunderstorms continue in Central NY and northeast PA as low pressure west of the region tracks northeastward.
These are along a little vort max spinning out ahead of a closed upper low that is over the ND/SD/MN border.
STP Upper level low is well defined on satellite this afternoon over the far southeast corner of Montana, drifting to the east- southeast. As the upper low continues to drift eastward through this evening, organized wrap around precipitation will diminish and dissipate overnight.
820 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 An upper trough will cross the Carolinas this evening.
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Key Messages: *Cooler temperatures today *Isolated thunderstorm chances this evening and Monday evening, could see a strong to severe storm *Additional thunderstorms chances through the week Today will remain mostly dry, dewpoints will only be in the upper 40s to low 50s. As far as high temperatures today, most models are in good agreement with highs slightly below normal for today with a cooler air mass in place, kept highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Upper level ridge remains in place over the central CONUS through much of the week. This will generally keep the potential for thunderstorms activity isolated as more of a ridge runner setup for thunderstorms will be in place through the week.
After a few days of hit or miss rain chances, a deep layer ridge building into the region is setting the stage for another prolonged stretch of dry weather with potentially dangerous heat across the region. This pattern is expected to persist through the upcoming week, with the ridge reaching peak intensity mid to late week.
To begin the period an upper closed low is exiting eastward toward the Dakotas. Further west across the west coast, upper level troughing is drifting slowly eastward.
Dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures are expected over the next 36 hours. Earlier this morning, a cold front moved across southwest Kansas bringing some cooler air into the region. Simultaneously, an area of high pressure will begin to build into the West Central High Plains. An upper level ridge will move from the Rockies into the Central Plains early in the week, resulting in warm temperatures within the 850mb to 700mb range across Kansas. Recent analysis of the ECMWF ensemble box and whistler plots indicate a possibility of slightly cooler temperatures compared to the initial projections. Additionally, when assessing the 2-m max temperature difference from the mean, a slight majority of the ensembles (60-70%) trended towards a slightly cooler solution for the middle of the week.
(Today through Monday) The broad mid-level ridge will remain parked over northern Mexico into west Texas and will continue to produce strong subsidence across Deep South Texas through the short term. Very warm conditions will continue tonight with lows dropping into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Heat indices overnight will only fall into 80s to the lower 90s across much of the CWA.
Excessive heat warning in effect for all of west central Texas The unrelenting and record breaking heat wave continues today, with temperatures even a few degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday. The 595+ dm ridge will remain firmly anchored over southwest and west central Texas this afternoon. And combined with the strengthening thermal ridge, this will translate into highs of 105 to 110+ degrees. The highest readings will be across the Concho Valley, with San Angelo possibly approaching the all time record high set last week.
106 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Showers and thunderstorms continue in Central NY and northeast PA as low pressure west of the region tracks northeastward. Upper level low remains in the vicinity and chances for rain showers and thunderstorms increase again in the afternoon. An upper level low will slowly move out of the Great Lakes on Monday with a deep moist southerly flow of air across NY and PA. 12Z NAM has a weakening short wave Monday morning with some showers, then in the afternoon another more significant wave rounds the base of the upper level low. This will lead moisture advection ahead of the advancing upper level low with cooling aloft. For Monday night, upper level low still remains west of NY/PA and spins another short wave with more showers and isolated storms at our region.
-------------------------------- Tightly wound mid-upper level low near northeast SD-MN border is drifting slowly southeast early this morning. This low will continue to slide southeast toward the Upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes today, with deep northwest flow, weak instability, and lingering moisture rotating around the back side of the departing system. Any lingering clouds should likewise decrease, though HRRR/RAP Smoke models do indicate potential for a ribbon of smoke aloft to rotate back over portions of the area around the back side of the upper low tonight into Monday.
* Cold front brings cooler temperatures for Sunday with highs mostly in the 80s. An upper low/trough is centered over North Dakota/South Dakota with the base of the trough over Nebraska and northern Kansas. These gusty winds are also a result of a cold front beginning to move into the area. The upper trough will be centered over Wisconsin on Sunday with northerly gusty winds across Nebraska and Kansas. Temperatures Sunday night will continue to cool with lows ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures on Monday will be a little warmer than those on Sunday with mostly light winds.
1028 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Most recent Water Vapor and upper air analysis shows the upper low situated over eastern ND/SD border, with upper ridging over the Rockies. Can't rule out a severe storm near south central this afternoon, on the higher end of the CAPE with slightly better shear (25-35kts). Precipitation should exit the region this evening as the low tracks eastward into Minnesota, and we can expect dry conditions the remainder of the weekend. Mild upper ridging over the Rockies slides over our region overnight into Sunday, tempering precipitation chances to start the week. Later Monday, ridge beginds to slide east of the forecast area, and precipitation chances increase.
Showers continue to rotate around the low pressure system into our CWA, although much of the lightning activity has ended as MU CAPE has dropped below 500 J/kg. The low will slowly pull off to the east during the day, and think that most of the precipitation will shift to east of the Red River by afternoon. There is some indication of elevated instability increasing again, but very little at the low levels and bulk shear is around 10 kts. The upper low will continue to pull off to the east tonight, with ridging building into the Plains on Monday.
Around mid-week, high pressure will begin to build in, allowing temperatures to rise above normal.
* Warmer Monday, with overnight convection possible late Mon night and again Tue night.
Key Messages: - Risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm over southwest Iowa and a small part of northeast Nebraska this evening - Cold front brings cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday - Warmer temperatures return mid-week with chances of storms. Other isolated storms may become severe along the surface cold front moving southeast out of South Dakota. But cold front is expected to sweep across the entire region tonight and bring in cooler weather for Sunday and Monday.
Thereafter the focus will be on the slow moving cold front currently across SE KS.
Late in the evening, the upper trough axis aloft swings in, turning winds northwest. SUNDAY: Notably cooler Sunday in close proximity of the upper low, which meanders through southern Minnesota. Expect a cool night with lows in the 50s, maybe even slightly cooler than we have currently forecast.
Key Messages: - Breezy and cooler today - Warmer temperatures with chances of storms mid-late week A vertically stacked low over northeast South Dakota will continue to move southeast across Minnesota today dragging a cold front across the region. Noticeably cooler dewpoints in the 50s will be common across much of the region.
331 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Rain will continue to end from west to east this morning with warmer highs expected this afternoon. As this system continues to slowly move east southeast into the Great Lakes region, upper level ridging will approach from the west through the day. At the surface, high pressure will also move into the northern Plains from eastern Wyoming. Northwest winds will remain a bit breezy across the James River Valley through the afternoon as the low exits the region. This pattern will lead to warmer temperatures than the past few days, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s. Upper level ridging will continue to move across the state on Monday as it starts to slightly deamplify.
After sunrise winds will increase behind the cold front as wrap around clouds begin moving into the area. Upper level disturbances rotating around the upper low and colder temperatures aloft will allow diurnal showers and a few thunderstorms to develop starting around mid-day and continuing into the evening hours. Initially cooler to start the week but temperatures will climb above normal by mid-week. medium confidence The proximity of the upper low and additional upper level disturbances rotating around it will generate additional showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly from mid-day into the early evening hours.
242 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 A ridge of high pressure will build over the area today, before a strong cold front approaches from the northwest Monday.
(Today through Monday) Key Messages: - Continued heat today; slightly better Monday High pressure continues but we have finally had a bit drier air move in.
With the influence of the last low pressure system now gone, persistent southwest flow is the story through the short term. Between disturbances, the ridge axis (currently through Texas) nudges westward slightly tomorrow. By Monday, a low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest will begin to gradually lift out over the Northern Rockies. Fire weather products will likely be needed for the lower elevations where fuels are critical.
Upper troughing nearby will lead to below normal temperatures and onshore winds through midweek. Temperatures warm to near normal by week's end as high pressure gradually builds into the region. (Today and tonight) The large-scale pattern remains relatively unchanged with upper troughing from NorCal into the Pacific Northwest and stout ridging centered over northern Mexico.
250 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over west central MN, with high pressure to the west of our area.
400 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Showers and thunderstorms continue in Central NY and northeast PA as low pressure west of the region tracks northeastward. Upper level low remains in the vicinity and chances for rain showers and thunderstorms increase again in the afternoon.
Western Washington will remain under split flow aloft the next few days with upper level ridging building over British Columbia and an upper level trough extending into northern California.
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 A ridge of high pressure will build over the area today, before another cold front approaches from the northwest Monday.
120 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 A ridge of high pressure will build over the area today, before another cold front approaches from the northwest Monday.
Mid level ridging will remain anchored over the Southern Plains for the next few days and will strengthen some on Sunday. These storms will attempt to cross into north and west portions of the CWA, but will dissipate fairly quickly as they encounter increasing subsidence associated with a mid level ridge centered to our southwest.
205 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 A ridge of high pressure will build over the area today, before another cold front approaches from the northwest Monday.
The 07Z MSAS surface analysis indicated an area of low pressure over far northeast SD with a cold front that extended east- southeast into southeast MN, then turn south through central IA. There is always a concern when an upper low moves by during peak heating that a quick spin-up cannot be completely ruled out. Min temperatures to range from the lower to middle 50s over north-central WI, to the lower 60s over east-central WI.
208 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Moisture increasing out head of an approaching cold front will increase thunderstorms chances by Monday.
Mid level ridging will remain anchored over the Southern Plains for the next few days and will strengthen some on Sunday. The mid level ridge be centered over the state of Texas, gradually shifting a bit more east/northeast each day.
1014 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 (This evening through Sunday) A weak surface boundary/trough has pushed into far northwest Oklahoma with surface winds slightly veered ahead of it. A cold front, with drier air, is expected to move across parts of northern Oklahoma during the late overnight/early Sunday morning.
The lower shower chances also means slightly warmer temperatures with mid to upper 90's possible inland by mid to late week.
253 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Upper level ridge w/ modest height rises is building over the region this morning.
The axis of the ridge that built in over eastern Utah and western Colorado yesterday will pass to the east today, and deeper mixing expected in its wake will tap into the 80-100 knot jet aloft, bringing down some of those stronger winds. Synoptically speaking, a deep area of low pressure will remain over the Great Lakes while another will have setup over Oregon. High pressure will be centered over Texas. The end result will be our CWA sandwiched between the high to our SE and the low to the NW.
A dry, deep north-northwest flow is developing over the area in the wake of a departing upper trough and southward-moving front. Drier airmass and mostly sunny skies will allow temps to shoot into the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Ridging over the southern Plains will build eastward across the Gulf states as upper troughing deepens across the eastern US.
Surface ridging and the redevelopment of a mid level ridge through Monday means a dry forecast will continue.
1230 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 The forecast looks to be in good shape as the nearly closed low centered over northeastern South Dakota continues to slowly drift east southeast. Forcing continues to decrease across western and central North Dakota as the upper level low spins slowly to the east across the eastern Dakotas and into the Upper Midwest. This is generating moderate to heavy rainfall along and south of the I94 corridor and east of Highway 85, as well as along and south of the Highway 200 corridor mainly east of Highway 83. The dominating pattern for the upcoming week is the upper level ridge that is expected to build in early Monday morning, allowing for a gradual increase in temperatures as 500mb heights rise.
At the surface, a generally weak pressure pattern exists with ridging out over the Atlantic and weak ridging in the Gulf. The convergence along the seabreezes will be enhanced by the opposing flow between the two ridges, with deep layer support from the trough aloft.
With a surface frontal passage expected as Monday progresses, slightly cooler high temperatures expected mainly ranging mid to upper 80s, lower 80s Cumberland Plateau Region expected.
608 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 (Today through Monday) Key Messages: - Continued heat today; slightly better Monday High pressure continues but we have finally had a bit drier air move in.
A longwave trough will influence the weather across the Northern Rockies today through much of the week.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage has greatly increased this morning with the highest coverage occurring across the Straits of Florida.