Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These conditions will allow low temperatures to drop into the low- to mid-20s, coming especially close to record lows, especially in the east (see Climate section - Vichy's record low of 28F for the 30th has been obliterated tonight, setting a new record of 22F). A Freeze Warning is in effect for our southeast counties until 10am where temperatures did not drop this low yesterday. Winds will gradually pick up and become more northerly over the course of the early morning as a surface cold front approaches the region. By 6pm, wind chills will be in the high 20s, dropping off quickly as the sun sets. High temperatures begin to recover a bit on Wednesday landing in the high 40s to near 50 as high pressure slides by to the south and turns winds southerly allowing for some warm air advection.
Cirrus moving through the mid-level ridge of high pressure to the west arrives tonight and will continue to move overhead Wednesday.
The HREF (colder than the SREF) predicts 10-20 percent chance of freezing temperatures over portions of the northern CWA by 12z Wednesday. The foregoing northern upper system will contribute to a secondary surge of high pressure that will enter the CWA tonight/Wednesday and maintain cool conditions Wednesday.
With the high overhead most of the day however, looking at limited mixing as the core of cold air shifts overhead (850mb temperatures 2 standard deviations below climo) translating into another day with highs about 20 degrees below normal. With the high moving off, southerly flow will keep us kind of mixed.
615 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 (Today and tonight) A little treat is in store for today with some slightly warmer temperatures and an increase in sunshine, with any lingering cloud cover over the area diminishing from north to south this morning.
An upper level trof will swing through today pushing through a second sfc cold front. Highs will be in the upper 40s today with lows again in the lower 20s with even a few teens possible. High pressure will be building at the sfc and moving through the area as the trof aloft moves east and leaves us in northwest flow aloft.
903 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023 High pressure will build over the area today into Wednesday as low pressure passes well to our south.
501 AM MDT Tue Oct 31 2023 A dirty ridge hangs over the region through the middle part of this week, which will keep the warming trend going as temps will rise back to seasonal normals.
Quite an active pattern ahead of us this week with several wet systems bringing widespread precipitation through the region, though high snow levels through the week will keep snow from falling on all but the highest peaks. Dry, stable weather will continue through this evening with upper-level ridging in place. We'll see another chill morning, with widespread near-to-below freezing temperatures in inland valleys as well as east of the Cascades, and localized fog in the Umpqua River Valley. High temperatures today will be very similar to yesterday's, if not a touch warmer inland. The ridge shifts eastward and breaks down tonight into early Wednesday, and the pattern shifts to wet and progressive through the rest of the week, with more zonal flow sending a few atmospheric rivers in from the Pacific.
Relatively calm winds in the high desert are allowing the temperatures to drop into the 30s again, where we have a frost advisory in effect this morning. A weak high pressure ridge aloft will maintain our fair weather for the coming week, at least.
736 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Much cooler temperatures can be expected though midweek with a chance of snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.
1012 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023 High pressure continues to briefly build in today. A low pressure system then develops offshore tonight and passes to our southeast on Wednesday. High pressure builds into the region Wednesday night and remains through the weekend.
In locations that decouple and/or are sheltered in the Freeze Warning, temperatures should easily fall to below the freezing mark.
Warmer conditions will return by the end of the week.
1004 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023 High pressure continues to briefly build in today. A low pressure system then develops offshore tonight and passes to our southeast on Wednesday. High pressure builds into the region Wednesday night and remains through the weekend.
Tonight, some clouds move in over the higher terrain, and low temperatures sink back into the 20s over the plains and single digits over the valleys.
944 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Brrr! It has been a frosty morning across all of Tennessee with lows at or below freezing.
A coastal trough is separating a pair of high pressure systems centered about 500 mi east and west of the Bay Area.
Northeast winds will continue through this afternoon with cooler daytime temperatures. The departing trough continues to weaken though the northeast winds will continue through today. High pressure will amplify off the west coast but will begin to flatten out over the next several days. Mainly VFR conditions with N/NE winds 5-10 kts, with gusts 15-20 kts over the higher terrain.
626 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 (Today through Wednesday night) As the main upper trough continues in it's eastern track.
High pressure will keep quiet weather conditions across the area through tomorrow.
This morning's sounding shows ongoing moistening of the atmospheric column thanks to the low over the western Atlantic, which will help support the development of isolated showers and even a rogue thunderstorm or two this afternoon. For any trick-or-treaters tonight, temperatures will be spooky hot, possibly reaching 90F at Miami this afternoon, so dress accordingly amd stay hydrated! (Today through Wednesday) Model consensus show a mid-level trough/low complex migrating across the NE CONUS, with an associated sfc boundary reaching the northern portions of the Florida peninsula today. Despite the approaching front and its parent trough over the Atlantic seaboard, moisture ahead of it seems to not increase too much over the area. High pressure strengthens over the SE CONUS as the aforementioned trough/low push further NE, while imparting a last push to the boundary over northern FL.
1008 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023 A strong upper level trough, and its associated cold front, will move southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today into tonight. High pressure will quickly build back into the region on Wednesday. The high will continue to extend into the area into the first part of the weekend. Temperatures that fell below freezing in most locations have allowed us to end the frost freeze program for the season. Clouds will increase from the northwest as a potent mid level s/wv and its associated cold front continue to progress southeast. It will be cold for the first day of November with highs ranging from the lower to mid 40s. High pressure moves over the Ohio Valley on Wednesday night.
612 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023 High pressure will build over the area today into Wednesday as low pressure passes well to our south.
There has been a recent minor surge in showers as a weak boundary moving southward from near the Lower Keys has activated with a few new showers.
Although many locations will be in the low 50s at sunset, temperatures will quickly fall into the 30s and 40s by mid-evening. The Freeze Warning for Wednesday morning has been expanded northward to include those counties that largely missed the freezing temperatures this morning. Despite abundant sunshine and unseasonably low dew points, the chilly start to the day will mean cooler high temperatures across North Central and Northeast Texas (only in the lower 50s).
An upper level trough will move across the eastern U. over the next few days helping to drive a surface cold front south across the region later tonight and Wednesday morning. This high will move across the eastern U.
The higher winds during the period will tend to be near the coast. /29 (Now through Wednesday) Progressively drier and colder air flows into the area through Wednesday in the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage. Lows tonight range from the lower 30s well inland to 35-40 near the coast. We opted to issue a cautionary Freeze Watch for tonight for Perry and Greene counties in southeast Mississippi due to overnight lows getting uncomfortably close to freezing.
131 PM MDT Tue Oct 31 2023 A ridge of high pressure will continue stable and dry conditions through Wednesday.
Highs this afternoon will range from the low 50s to low 60s. Tonight, expect cold overnight lows as high pressure pushes into northern Texas by Wednesday morning. Clear skies and light wind will lead to efficient radiational cooling, with freezing temperatures expected across the Hill Country, Williamson County, and portions of the Highway 90 corridor west of San Antonio. Below freezing temperatures are only expected to last for a few hours, before quickly rebounding after sunrise. Highs on Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer than those seen this afternoon, but sunshine will be abundant with mainly clear skies across the area.
Bundle up and wear extra layers! - Expect a breezy start to Wednesday with gusts in the 20s and 30s east of the I-29 corridor and especially near the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota.
A cold front that swept across the area yesterday morning has made it to coastal SC/GA/FL. This will make for wind chill temps 5-10 degrees cooler than the actual air temperatures. The lower end of this along with the near breezy winds will result in near critical levels regarding wild fire spread and growth potential.
Roads could become quickly snow covered, especially bridges and overpasses. Skies will become mostly clear overnight as low pressure pulls away, with dry weather Wednesday under high pressure.
Winds should start to diminish as a 1034mb high pressure center will move southward into central Texas overnight. Although some areas hit freezing last night, many areas did not. Tomorrow, another sunny day is expected as the high pressure center will drift eastward.
Broad high pressure forecast for the region through the next several days with little change expected to the forecast. Persistent north winds within the lower CRV should start to markedly diminish late this afternoon/early evening.
1208 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 (Today through Wednesday night) As the main upper trough continues in it's eastern track.
- A low pressure system may bring rain or a wintry mix to the Northland over the weekend but there is quite a bit of uncertainty on the timing.
Cold front will move well to the south southeast Tonight, with strong high pressure building from the northwest. A much drier and cooler airmass will filter south into the area overnight following this front. Skies will remain cloudy through the night due to a band of mid level clouds under an upper trough.
1150 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023 High pressure will build over the area today into Wednesday as low pressure passes well to our south.
As a result, temperatures tonight are forecast to plummet into the mid to upper 30s inland, and into the low 40s to low 50s right along the coast. A few low-lying or drainage locations along the northern Coastal Plains may briefly experience lows near freezing by Wednesday morning. With winds remaining slightly elevated at around 5-15 mph, minimum wind chills overnight will range from the mid 20s inland to the low 40s along the coast. Highs tomorrow will run around 3-8 degrees warmer, with maximum temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
A quick-moving but moisture-starved cold front continues to progress through the region. As of 19z, it currently extends through the Wabash River Valley and the Lower Ohio River. This will allow temperatures to again fall to near record low values overnight, mainly in the lower to middle 20s.
Northeast winds will continue through this afternoon with cooler daytime temperatures.
1210 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 (Today and tonight) A little treat is in store for today with some slightly warmer temperatures and an increase in sunshine, with any lingering cloud cover over the area diminishing from north to south this morning.
1043 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Deep upper-troughing continues to influence much of the lower 48 this morning as an upper-level-low swings through the Great Lakes Region.
(This evening through Wednesday night) A long wave upper level trough continues to trek eastward across the Great Lakes region and upper Ohio Valley downstream from a ridge over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a 1036mb high pressure is currently centered over central KS and NE and will shift more over MS Valley area by tomorrow. Winds could gust over 30 mph at times tomorrow afternoon as mixing takes place with temperatures rising into the low to mid 60s.
Unfortunately, temperatures won't get much warmer for today as another wave of bitterly cold air is on its way. The cold front has just entered extreme west Tennessee and will be bringing in noticeably cooler air by early evening. This is a killing-type freeze, so protect any sensitive vegetation! You'll notice winds start to pick up as the cold front pushes through, which will make it feel even cooler. Wednesday night lows will once again dip back below freezing, but since a hard freeze is expected tonight, no freeze products are currently in the works past tonight's warning.
1234 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Deep upper-troughing continues to influence much of the lower 48 this morning as an upper-level-low swings through the Great Lakes Region.
TFJ MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large trough running south from the Hudson Bay through the Midwest and down into the southern Great Plains. to the west a large ridge is developing over or just off shore of the North American coast from California to the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Northeast Montana forecast begins under the cooler side of northwest flow wedged in between these two large airmasses.
Cold air over Yellowstone NP and lee-side troughing over central Montana will keep pressure gradients aligned for some gap winds near Livingston.
Winds should start to diminish as a 1034mb high pressure center will move southward into central Texas overnight. Although some areas hit freezing last night, many areas did not. Tomorrow, another sunny day is expected as the high pressure center will drift eastward. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 30s, with the colder readings in eastern and southeastern parts of our area will winds will be weaker.
Low temperatures tonight will be near to below freezing for a majority of the area. Areas included in the Freeze Warning may experience below freezing temperatures for up to 3-4 hours, which may cause damage to unprotected vegetation and pipes. The main concerns will be below freezing temperatures during the night and of course more fire weather issues during the day.
133 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023 A strong upper level trough, and its associated cold front, will move southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today into tonight. High pressure will quickly build back into the region on Wednesday. The high will continue to extend into the area into the first part of the weekend. Temperatures that fell below freezing in most locations have allowed us to end the frost freeze program for the season. Clouds will increase from the northwest as a potent mid level s/wv and its associated cold front continue to progress southeast. It will be cold for the first day of November with highs ranging from the lower to mid 40s. High pressure moves over the Ohio Valley on Wednesday night.
A ridge of high pressure at the sfc has drifted across the forecast area today, slackening gusty winds that began the day in our eastern zones and switched wind direction around to the west to southwest across our western zones. Temperatures should modify, aided by the fropa, with warmer daytime readings in the upper 30s to low 40s, although a deck of strato-cu or stratus advecting in behind the sfc boundary could curtail an early afternoon bump up in temperatures. Occasionally, s/w energy rides and knocks down the ridge, but mean ridging remains in place over the western CONUS, with mean troffing in the eastern CONUS.
This morning's sounding showed ongoing moistening of the atmospheric column thanks to an area of low pressure located over the western Atlantic, which will help support the development of a few isolated showers and possibly a rogue thunderstorm or two this afternoon. Surface analysis shows a cold front currently draped across the Florida Panhandle region, which is expected to gradually approach our area tomorrow. Temperatures today will reach the upper 80s and even touch the 90s briefly before dropping to the lower 70s along the coasts and the upper 60s over the interior overnight.
250 PM MDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Clear and cool conditions will greet Halloween revelers tonight as northwesterly flow continues along the west side of a building PACNW ridge. Temperatures will average about 5 degrees warmer overnight tonight, with desert valleys just below the freezing mark and mountain locales in the upper teens and 20s. Gunnison) will sink into the low teens again tonight.
A light accumulation is most likely over the higher elevations along the western Alleghenies and downwind of Lake Erie.
A longwave ridge of high pressure will continue to maintain dominant synoptic control of our local weather through Wednesday, as significant moisture begins to impact portions of the PacNW coast well to our north and west.
High pressure will bring a period of dry weather and a gradual warming trend into the weekend. High pressure will result in a period of quiet weather across northern Arizona through at least the weekend.
141 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Much cooler temperatures can be expected though midweek with a chance of snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.
1218 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper trough moving through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, leaving cool, dry, northwest aloft flow in its wake. However, they will remain light, combining with clear skies to promote efficient radiational cooling and refreezing temperatures most locations. Areas along the Rio Grande will be spared until the next good cold front.
223 PM MDT Tue Oct 31 2023 The cold airmass that has entrenched the area will slowly erode a bit over the next few days as warmer air has finally spilled to the east of the Continental Divide in MT.
Northern counties (from the Brazos Valley east into the Piney Woods) will be the most likely spots for freezing to near freezing reading tonight. The light/moderate NE flow and mostly clear skies will lead to highs ranging from the mid to upper 50s north to the lower 60s south. However, look for the re- turn of freezing/near freezing low temperatures across our northern tier of counties again tomorrow night.
With the trough pulling east overnight and Wednesday, winds will switch to southerly and kick off some warm air advection into the area.
Latest surface analysis and observations indicate that a baroclinic zone over the area is shifting eastward as a warm front at this hour, with downslope westerly flow over northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and portions of the foothills. Later tonight into early tomorrow morning, a secondary trof/front will cross the area, bringing northwesterly winds and a period of cold air advection to our far northwest tomorrow.
219 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023 * Gusty winds into the evening hours * Scattered snow showers into early evening, mainly north * Continued cold A cold front will continue to march east across the area and will bring clouds as well as low chances for some light rain/snow, especially east. Forcing from an upper trough will aid in snow shower creation. Otherwise, some decrease in clouds will occur, especially west as high pressure begins to work in overnight. High pressure will build in during the day. Flow from Lake Michigan will be disrupted by the high, so clouds from the Lake will dissipate during the day. Winds will be lower with the high moving in, but temperatures will remain cold. Highs will only reach the lower to middle 40s.
The low pressure system to the northwest is still on track to bring some light snow/rain showers with it early this afternoon. An abrupt drop by a couple of degrees is likely right as the cold front sweeps through.
1221 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Brrr! It has been a frosty morning across all of Tennessee with lows at or below freezing.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) The mid-level disturbance across the Great Lakes swings through New England into mid week, dragging a locally weak 500mb trough axis offshore tonight. Less cloud cover tonight will allow temperatures to dip back into the 40s, with isolated locations across the ranchlands and in more typically cooler spots like Zapata and Armstrong potentially landing into the upper 30s. With consistent sunshine and building high pressure at the surface on Wednesday, expect highs to rebound another 10 degrees or more for most locations, potentially even touching the upper 60s or low 70s. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect through Wednesday morning and there is a high risk of rip currents likely persisting through Wednesday afternoon.
Cold northerly winds behind the low then bring chilly conditions tonight with low temperatures in the low to mid twenties. At the lower levels of the atmosphere, southwesterly flow will usher in a more seasonably normal airmass with temperatures warming back toward the lower 50s by this weekend.
We expect temperatures to fall into the low to middle 20s tonight across all of the Midsouth and remain below 40 tomorrow across most of the area. Widespread frost and sub-freezing temperatures will bring an end to our growing season.
Mejia (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Surface ridging will shift eastward Wednesday and a warming trend will commence as southerly winds return for the remainder of the week and through the upcoming weekend.
1103 AM MDT Tue Oct 31 2023 A dirty ridge hangs over the region through the middle part of this week, which will keep the warming trend going as temps will rise back to seasonal normals.
(Tonight) Clouds have moved east of the area, as drier air continued spilling to the east in the wake of a cold front passage yesterday. More and mostly unlimited solar insolation has allowed temperatures so far to warm into the low/mid 50s. As with previous guidance, lows across nearly all of the area should tumble below freezing, with lows in most spots from ~24 to 28/29 degrees. Temperatures at 6 PM should range in the upper 40s, with wind chill values in the low/mid 40s, and around 8 PM near 40 and wind chills in the lower 30s - thanks to gusty at times NW-N winds of 10-20 mph.
With CAA, clear skies and light winds, make sure to put a few layers on with those costumes, as it'll be very chilly around sunset! Nearly every location north of the Rio Grande Valley fell below freezing this morning, and a similar morning is expected tomorrow with possibly Terrell County joining in on the fun for the first time this season.
(This evening through Wednesday) The cold front has cleared most of the region, with only portions of far southeastern Oklahoma beginning to exhibit a wind shift to the west and the northwest. This cold airmass will reinforce the cold temperatures overnight, bringing the coldest evening so far with lows in the low to mid 20s. These cooler temperatures will be enhanced, with a cross examination of the models providing evidence that the winds will decrease to light and variable overnight and begin shifting out of the south.
211 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Becoming a bit warmer later this week, with the return of precipitation chances this weekend. The potent upper low that brought 2-4 inches over much of eastern MN and WI continues to track away and is now centered over Chicago/Milwaukee areas.
200 PM MDT Tue Oct 31 2023 The upper ridge in the west will gradually weaken, resulting in a northwest flow early transitioning to a zonal flow late in the week.
This will allow temps to drop to the mid/upper 20s across most areas tonight, but the southerly component will help to keep temps slightly warmer than last night.