Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Monday) Upper level flow over TX this morning was from the northwest with a trough to the east and a ridge to the west. Cooler, drier air has moved in with temperatures five to ten degrees cooler and dewpoints 10 to 15 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. This will bring warmer air back and highs today will be around five degrees warmer than yesterday with mostly sunny skies. With a warmer start lows will be warmer Monday morning. This will bring some cooler air for Monday and high temperatures will be few degrees lower than Sunday.
514 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Today) Areas of fog and freezing fog, locally dense, have developed across far E. A Freezing Fog Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM CST this morning for locations generally east of Vinita to McAlester line. Fog/freezing fog may expand farther westward later this morning, but should stay more patchy in nature and mainly affect low-lying locations. Will continue to monitor surface observations for an expansion of the Freezing Fog Advisory, if necessary.
1211 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Key Points: * Clearing from west to east will lead to warmer conditions today. * Cold front is expected to move through the region leading to cooler and breezier condition tonight into Monday. As the low level flow transitions to more of a westerly component, the stratus is expected to accelerate east leading to clearing skies. This cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler than areas to the south and west where highs will warm into the lower and mid 50s. A strong cold front is expected to move through the region this afternoon into the evening. Behind the front, northwest winds will increase ushering cooler air into the region.
As the cold front makes its way over the local area today, expecting this activity to continue to push east into Georgia and eastern Tennessee. Be careful when driving if you come upon fog - reduce speed, use low-beam headlights, allow plenty of room between you and other cars, and take special caution over bridges and in valleys.
(Tonight through Monday night) High pressure will dominate the forecast through Monday night. A slow moisture return is also expected overnight and Monday, which will help keep low temperatures a bit warmer for Monday night.
From synopsis, the winter low pressure system is nearing the Atlantic coast of northern Florida.
1136 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Today through Monday night) Northwest flow aloft will usher in a weak cold front to the area later this afternoon, which as of 09z is advancing across the north central Great Plains. Highs today are expected to reach the low to mid 60s ahead of the front's arrival, with only a minor drop in temperatures behind it. Light northerly winds will continue modest CAA into Monday morning, with lows only a few degrees cooler compared to this morning. 850mb temperatures will continue cooling Monday, keeping afternoon highs closer to climatological averages in the low to mid 50s.
234 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 (This afternoon through Monday) As the storm system moves up the coast, high pressure resumes control come Monday. High pressure will remain in place through the short term forecast with daytime highs around normal for this time of year for the rest of the day and through the overnight.
254 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - Cooler temperatures expected Monday, then warmer and much above normal temperatures through the remainder of the forecast.
Otherwise, a stronger high pressure system sagging southward thru the Plains will send a weak reinforcing front into the region late tonight & Monday morning.
With ample sunshine, we've already warmed well into the 60s by noon and should see many locations reach the low 70s. Tonight, look for warmer temperatures than this morning mainly bottoming out in the mid 30s to mid 40s. It will push a weak cold front and northerly wind shift across the region during the day, and so high temperatures will be cooler than today over northern portions of the region, mainly in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures will quickly fall into the 30s and lower 40s, and there is a chance for some low-lying Hill Country/I-35 areas to dip below freezing again. Right now, we think temperatures will probably remain at or above freezing in most locations, but portions of Llano, Burnet, Williamson, Gillespie, Kendall and Blanco Counties do have 30-50% freeze probabilities at this time per the NBM.
(Tonight through Monday night) Ridging aloft and the surface will maintain a very dry and stable airmass in place through the forecast period.
(The rest of today) Visibility and temperature are both trending upward in most locations across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, and therefore, the Freezing Fog Advisory has been allowed to expire on time at 9 am.
All in all, it should be a quiet rest of the day for Middle TN with clouds sticking around helping to keep high temperatures cool in the low to mid-50's. A reinforcing cold front will come barrelling towards the area by midday on Monday. A couple of models continue to want to bring some snow to portions of Middle TN Monday afternoon, mainly across the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau. First of all, surface temperatures will lag a bit behind the frontal boundary, with most not falling below freezing until after sunset.
(Tonight) The cold front has officially moved east of the local area. The northwest flow will begin to usher in drier and cooler air to the Tennessee Valley, leading to cooler overnight temperatures. Forecast lows are expected to dip into the lower to mid 30s tonight into early Monday morning.
1137 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 A reinforcing cold front tonight into Monday will bring a return of cold arctic air back to the area for early this week.
Most of the weather associated with this low has cleared the area with only spotty light rain and drizzle expected over the next few hours. The highest wind reports were in the 40 to 50 mph range with a few spots gusting in excess of 50 mph during the early morning hours. The highest threat for winds have passed so will let the High Wind Advisory expire at 10 AM. Dangerous boating conditions continue today as the low pressure system currently located over southeast GA moves away from the area.
The above mentioned cold front will make quickly progress south and east through our region on Monday but there is not much in the way of cold air advection associated with this boundary and thus, again given the dry conditions, did bump temps up slightly above NBM values for daytime highs on Monday.
(Issued 149 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023) Tonight through Monday night: Low stratus remains in place across the region this afternoon, as a broad trough works its way through the area. A strong cold front remains on track to push into and through the area late this evening through the overnight hours. Northwest winds will increase rapidly behind the cold front, with gusts in the 30-40 MPH range overnight and through much of the day on Monday. Winds will settle down fairly quickly by late afternoon as well, as boundary layer mixing subsides and high pressure builds in.
(This afternoon through Monday) A cold frontal boundary is passing through the area behind a departing mid-level low pressure system. Global models show good agreement in depicting broad and deep high pressure taking control of much of the middle states region, This will result in cooler and much drier air following the FROPA, as moderate WNW flow establishes across SoFlo during the short term. Afternoon highs won't begin to drop right away, as the cooler air advection in the wake of the front will take a little longer to fully reach the area.
An upper level ridge axis to the west will keep us in northwest flow aloft through Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will push through the region tonight through early Monday morning, bringing some northerly breezes and slightly cooler highs for Monday (upper 50s to low 60s).
228 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - Cooler Monday, then above-normal temperatures return through the remainder of the week.
This, combined with deep layer flow, with likely keep temperatures a little warmer, with lows generally staying above freezing. /SAS/ Today and Tonight: A pleasant Sunday is in store for the CWA as a low pressure system and cold front move away from the area and cooler/dry air returns. A cold front will move across the CWA, decreasing the cloud cover throughout the morning. In the wake of both systems, northwest flow will allow cooler and drier air to filter into the region.
143 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 Widespread rain will continue across the area today as a strong low pressure system moves NE along the coast of the Carolinas.
935 AM MST Sun Dec 17 2023 Current 500 mb analysis shows the area under northwesterly flow aloft with the upper level trough situated in vicinity of the Mississippi River and an upper level ridge across the west. For Monday, an upper level trough slides south-southeast towards the Great Lakes region over top of the eastward progressing ridge.
(This afternoon through Monday night) After a warm afternoon today with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s, a cold front will transition temperatures back toward normal Monday. Lows Monday morning will be similar to the past few days, but highs will be cooler and mostly in the 50s. Moisture and clouds will begin to increase Monday night helping keep low temperatures slightly warmer and several degrees above average.
1138 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Today through Monday Night) High pressure will control the weather pattern through the short term promoting calm and dry conditions. Patchy fog and freezing fog has developed overnight across portions of western, southern, and north-central Arkansas.
229 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - Strong winds and scattered snow showers move through tonight with the passage of a cold front. Tonight - Monday: Strong Winds, Overnight Snow Showers, Colder A vigorous upper level trough with a PV 1. 5 surface of 600-700-mb is digging southward over the Northern Plains this afternoon with a attendant cold front swinging southward through North Dakota.
224 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - A brief period of below normal (5-10 degrees) temperatures is forecast Monday and Monday night behind a cold front.
Otherwise, mainly clear skies and upper level ridging set up in place through much of the northern Rockies.
Colder and drier conditions are then expected mid to late week as high pressure returns. Confidence: Moderate to High Main Highlights/Concerns: Cold with below normal temps Details: A reinforcing cold front will move through Monday night ushering in a dry and cold air mass through the period. The passing upper trough could be enough to squeeze out a few clouds but no measurable precipitation is expected.
236 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 ZCZC STLWRKJTK 172034 TTAA00 KSTL DDHHMM - Colder Monday, post cold front, with highs in the upper 30s.
(This evening through Monday) A cold front will move across the area tonight with winds becoming more northerly behind the front.
Conditions will remain dry with the upper ridge axis in place through today.
Another cold front will pass through the Midsouth early Monday, bringing a reinforcing push of cold air to the region.
339 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 Low pressure will move up the east coast tonight and Monday bringing widespread rain and some snow showers. High pressure builds into the region for the middle and end of the week. Low pressure will track up the east coast tonight. The best lift continues to be focused along and just west of the low track and can be seen well on the hi-res guidance with training showers and thunderstorms. Cold air advection comes in on the backside of the low Monday with a temporary dry slot in the afternoon. The upper level low then looks to rotate into the region Monday night with a round of rain and snow showers enhanced in the typically favored areas off of Lake Ontario.
1108 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Today and tonight) With some weak upper-level ridging settling over West Central Texas today and tonight, more calm and mild conditions are expected to persist across the area through tonight. Temperatures today will start off a bit cooler this morning ranging in the low 30s to near 40, then rising into the mid 60s to lower 70s by this afternoon. A cold front will begin to track through the area tonight and into Monday morning, resulting in another round of cooler temperatures overnight tonight into Monday. Expect overnight lows tonight to drop back down into the 30s again, with some low lying areas nearing the freezing mark.
143 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2023 Current 500 mb analysis shows the area under northwesterly flow aloft with the upper level trough situated in vicinity of the Mississippi River and an upper level ridge across the west. For Monday, an upper level trough slides south-southeast towards the Great Lakes region over top of the eastward progressing ridge.
1141 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - Dry and warmer today with high temperatures in the 50s across most of the area, but northwesterly wind gusts of 25-30 mph are also expected. - A front moving through tonight will bring cooler temperatures Monday with highs only in the 30s to low 40s.
At the time of this writing, current readings range from the mid-40's into the low-50's, and they likely won't warm much further. By Monday morning, an upper-level low drops into the Great Lakes region, sending a cold front through our area. Can't completely rule it out, especially for areas along the Plateau which is in closer proximity to the low with a tighter pressure gradient, but any gusts that high should be only occasional. This doesn't line up with the coldest temperatures as surface temperatures don't fall below freezing until close to sunset. Any wintry precipitation comes to an end Monday evening, and temperatures tomorrow night will be cold across all of Middle TN in the wake of the cold front.
Status quo weather pattern continues with high pressure overhead. This is likely due to the increased coverage of mid/high level clouds that will begin moving in overnight as upper- level flow becomes southwesterly as the high moves to our east. Moving into Monday, southwesterly flow will bring continued increasing cloud cover but warmer temperatures over the next few days.
(This evening through Monday night) As a H500 ridge builds across the Four Corners Region this afternoon, sfc to H850 flow from the NW is actually advecting warmer temperatures into the region with many locations into the 60s this afternoon. A weak cold front is moving south through the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. The cooler temperatures will follow as we go into tomorrow. After overnight lows tonight ranging from the lower 20s to lower 30sw, high temperatures tomorrow return to near average for mid December with high in the lower to mid 50s. A lee trough will develop by tomorrow afternoon as the main H500 ridge axis slides east of the region.
A dry cold front is currently dropping south through the Central Plains and will pass through the area tonight. Modest cold advection will result in daytime highs 10-12 degrees cooler in spit of generally clear skies.
1114 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Today through Monday) Upper level flow over TX this morning was from the northwest with a trough to the east and a ridge to the west. Cooler, drier air has moved in with temperatures five to ten degrees cooler and dewpoints 10 to 15 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. This will bring warmer air back and highs today will be around five degrees warmer than yesterday with mostly sunny skies. With a warmer start lows will be warmer Monday morning. This will bring some cooler air for Monday and high temperatures will be few degrees lower than Sunday.
(This evening through Monday) A cold front will move south through the forecast area tonight resulting in morning lows tomorrow in the 20s and 30s and high temperatures about 10 degrees cooler in the 50s. Chances of precipitation are zero tonight and tomorrow with upper level ridging moving over West Texas and very dry air throughout most of the column - except for some high clouds moving in from New Mexico tomorrow.
scattered high clouds move across the area from the west during the day, increasing a bit in thickness and coverage during the night as an upper level ridge axis moves over the area. The pressure gradient between high pressure across eastern Kansas and deepening low pressure along the Colorado front range will produce an 8mb pressure gradient across the forecast area.
1054 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (The rest of today) Visibility and temperature are both trending upward in most locations across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, and therefore, the Freezing Fog Advisory has been allowed to expire on time at 9 am.
1129 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Today through Monday Night) Benign weather conditions are expected to prevail for the next few days as high pressure and dry air work together to bring us beautiful December conditions over Southeast Texas. Skies will be mostly sunny and the highs will be in the mid to upper 60s. The temperatures tonight into early Monday are expected to be on the colder side again, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and the low to mid 40s along the coasts. Mostly sunny skies will continue and highs will once again be in the mid to upper 60s for most of the area, possibly in the low to mid 60s over the Piney Woods region.
1059 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Beautiful weather is unfolding on this Sunday with clear skies and temperatures in the low to mid 60s expected today.
1125 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Today through Monday) The actual cold front is making its way through the area as it is only a few miles west of a JAN-BTR line at 07z. Prefrontal trough has slid east of the area bringing the rain with it. This will help temps fall to around freezing north to around 40 south. But this will slowly drain as it feels the lower levels through the Rigolets especially as winds weaken over time.
At this hour, the upper level ridge is situated over the western CONUS with trough digging into the eastern CONUS.
An upper level low sits over southeast GA with a short wave trough extending south across the west coast of Florida.
525 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - Cooler Monday, then above-normal temperatures return through the remainder of the week.
(Now through Monday) A trough over the east coast will continue eastward with an upper level northwest flow pattern over the area resulting in building high pressure at the sfc. Low clouds east of I-65 will continue to clear the area as the trough progresses eastward. A cooler and drier airmass will continue to move into the area through Monday as a deep northwesterly flow prevails. /13 (Monday Night through Sunday) Upper-level troughing over the eastern US moves into the western Atlantic by midweek as upper ridging builds over the Gulf. At the surface, a cold front pushes through at the start of the period, bringing with it a reinforcing shot of much cooler and drier air as strong high pressure builds in from the north.
High clouds and deep flow will tend to limit radiational cooling potential, and should keep temperatures above freezing for much of the area, but should get cold enough for some patchy frost, with lows around the mid 30s.
533 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) Ridging aloft and the surface will maintain a very dry and stable airmass in place through the forecast period.
533 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Will allow the High Rip Current statement to expire at 6 PM and am not anticipating issuing a Coastal Flood Advisory for tonight. (Tonight through Monday night) High pressure will dominate the forecast through Monday night. A slow moisture return is also expected overnight and Monday, which will help keep low temperatures a bit warmer for Monday night.
150 PM PST Sun Dec 17 2023 A wetter pattern will set up for this week as a series of upper level troughs move along the Pacific coast.
After a beautiful day with highs in the 60s and lower 70s, temperatures will cool quickly tonight with increasing dry and cool air arriving behind a weak cold front. Temperatures will fall into the mid 30s to the lower 40s by sunrise Monday, but a northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph will hinder full radiational cooling from being achieved. Abundant sun will offset weak cold air advection on Monday, allowing temperatures to warm near seasonal normals with highs from the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
(This afternoon through Monday) As the storm system moves up the coast, high pressure resumes control come Monday. High pressure will remain in place through the short term forecast with daytime highs around normal for this time of year for the rest of the day and through the overnight.
A significant shift in the pattern will bring widespread moisture and cooler temperatures by the end of the week. A low pressure system currently entering the Gulf of Alaska will dive southeast over the next few days. This system will interact with moisture that is already being kicked up by an area of low pressure off the California coast.
539 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (This evening through Monday) A cold front will move south through the forecast area tonight resulting in morning lows tomorrow in the 20s and 30s and high temperatures about 10 degrees cooler in the 50s. Chances of precipitation are zero tonight and tomorrow with upper level ridging moving over West Texas and very dry air throughout most of the column - except for some high clouds moving in from New Mexico tomorrow.
527 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) After a warm afternoon today with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s, a cold front will transition temperatures back toward normal Monday. Lows Monday morning will be similar to the past few days, but highs will be cooler and mostly in the 50s. Moisture and clouds will begin to increase Monday night helping keep low temperatures slightly warmer and several degrees above average.
509 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) High pressure will dominate the forecast through Monday night. A slow moisture return is also expected overnight and Monday, which will help keep low temperatures a bit warmer for Monday night.
High pressure will maintain mostly dry and stable conditions through much of the upcoming week. A trough may impact the area during the upcoming weekend.
506 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 (This evening through Monday night) As a H500 ridge builds across the Four Corners Region this afternoon, sfc to H850 flow from the NW is actually advecting warmer temperatures into the region with many locations into the 60s this afternoon. A weak cold front is moving south through the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. The cooler temperatures will follow as we go into tomorrow. After overnight lows tonight ranging from the lower 20s to lower 30sw, high temperatures tomorrow return to near average for mid December with high in the lower to mid 50s. A lee trough will develop by tomorrow afternoon as the main H500 ridge axis slides east of the region.
545 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - A brief period of below normal (5-10 degrees) temperatures is forecast Monday and Monday night behind a cold front.
246 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2023 - Mild and mainly dry weather for the week ahead - Cooler this weekend with the potential for accumulating snow by Christmas Eve Scattered high, thin Cirrus clouds are moving southeastward over the CWA this afternoon. Northwesterly flow over the CWA will decrease tonight and become more westerly as an upper ridge axis moves over Colorado on Monday. In the lower levels, the upslope over the plains this evening will decrease with weak drainage winds expected overnight. Temperatures will stay above seasonal normals on Monday but should be 1-2 C cooler than today's highs.
448 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Another cold front will pass through the Midsouth early Monday, bringing a reinforcing push of cold air to the region.
516 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 - Colder Monday, post cold front, with highs in the upper 30s.
However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in impacts (if any) 'Twas the week before Christmas and all through the region, not a At this hour, the upper level ridge is situated over the western CONUS with trough digging into the eastern CONUS.