Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
511 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 (This evening through Friday) We'll see quiet weather for the remainder of today and tonight as a progressive upper-ridge, currently overhead, shifts northeast into the Central Plains. A little cooler into the upper teens/low 20s in our northwest zones where less cloud cover and lighter winds will allow for more radiational cooling. Surface pressure falls across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle out ahead of the upper low tomorrow will result in increasing southeasterly surface winds across our entire CWA tomorrow afternoon out ahead of a cold front that will move across the NM/TX state line around sunset. Breezy winds will approach 20kts sustained at times otherwise, little to no impacts are expected out ahead of the advancing cold front.
Showers are still working through portions of northern and central Nevada, with some gusty winds behind the passing cold front.
Blue skies abound for much of the area as the low which produced last night's precip moves out of the region and high pressure builds across the coastal Pacific.
This will be due to the ability for some light LES to develop within the Wrn wind belts, becoming more SWrly as the weekend progresses, with precip chances courtesy of a vort max passing through early in the weekend, followed by the passage of a fairly weak longwave trough later in the weekend.
A strong cold front has finished clearing the region. Drier and cooler air is moving in on these winds and temperatures will likely fall at or below freezing across the entire region tonight.
Think that the most likely area for dense fog development over the next hour or two will be along the edge of the low stratus from Watford City to western Sioux County.
709 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 (Rest of today through Friday) High pressure persists over South Florida through the short term period continuing the streak of fair weather. Winds are gradually turning more south-southwest this afternoon and evening as high pressure shifts eastward and a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north. Tonight, expect low temperatures to be slightly warmer with low to mid 60s expected area-wide. Highs on Friday are expected to reach the mid-80s, with slightly cooler temps near the coasts.
24 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Friday) An upper level trough will continue swinging through the southeast US with a weak mid level jet moving through the trough north of our area. Winds will be westerly through the afternoon and transition to a northwesterly direction this evening as the trough shifts east. High temperatures today will be in the lower 60s in the northwest to the mid 70s in the southeast. Friday high temperatures will be in the low 50s to the low 60s.
946 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 High wind gusts, in the wake of the front, will likely continue in the ridges with strong vertical winds associated with an upper-level low; Wind Advisory continues for portions of our region.
650 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 Low pressure tracking to the Great Lakes will provide an enhanced threat for severe thunderstorms into this evening. Colder and windy conditions along with a chance for snow showers will follow the low tonight into Friday.
It will also usher in a reinforcing shot of cold air which will result in sub-freezing low temperatures most locations across southern Arizona this weekend.
Presently, the upper level low that brought Colorado their snowstorm is lifting to the northeast, while an upper-level trough will continue to dig into the Four Corners region.
This will be located along the Highway 183 corridor initially and then spread eastward from there after midnight. Otherwise Pacific airmass should remain in control between the cooler shots of air.
855 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Gusty west to northwest winds behind a cold front will dominate the region tonight.
This heating has allowed the atmosphere to tap into a 40 knot jet ahead of an approaching secondary cold front currently over northwestern Mississippi into western Kentucky. Much cooler air will start to move into the area behind this front towards daybreak on Friday.
830 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Updated the forecast this evening by issuing a dense fog advisory for a few counties along the Missouri River, or where the low clouds have moved east. Freezing drizzle seems to be winding down as well, with a report from Sisseton saying it has ended, and Ortonville no longer reporting UP. With the expectation of mostly cloudy skies overnight, leaned towards the warmer end of guidance.
203 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2023 The low pressure system that brought heavy snow to parts of south central South Dakota yesterday is centered over Iowa this afternoon with an upper ridge building to the west of the forecast area over MT/WY/CO. Subsidence associated with the upper ridge and westerly downslope surface winds are rapidly clearing the low clouds out of the forecast area from west to east with clear skies to the west of a line roughly located from Lemmon to Valentine and low stratus to the east of that line.
550 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 (This evening through Friday Night) In the brief respite between active weather patterns, ridging aloft over the southern Plains will extend into the ArkLaTex, and sustained 500 mb winds will be southwesterly, becoming zonal, while northerly surface winds reinforce cool air advection, dropping temperatures across the Four State Region to lows slightly cooler than this morning's by daybreak Friday, settling in the lower 40s south to just above the freezing mark across southwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the next weathermaker will be organizing over the Great Basin, a pronounced trough plunging south over the Rockies while forming a closed low. This low looks to remain intact as the trough shifts eastward, pushing into west Texas by Friday night.
An upper level ridge building into the region will bring drier conditions to western Washington today and Friday.
The weak upper level trough has been very slow moving today which has resulted in areas of light snow across western Montana. One reason for this unhurried system is the fact that the main jet dove south and carved a more potent trough over Nevada, leaving our region under weak cyclonic flow aloft. This is the beginning of the next upper level ridge that will move over the Northern Rockies by Friday morning.
Areas of freezing drizzle and light snow will continue along the southeastern North Dakota and west-central Minnesota through at least 6 PM. Additionally, freezing drizzle and light snow continue across southeastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Freezing drizzle impacts are in and out for any one spot, so for now we've decided to forego issuing an advisory. The range in potential temperatures for tonight could be between the mid single digits to the low twenties. Freezing drizzle and flurries may arise once again, however confidence is very low in location and if it arises at all.
420 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2023 The low pressure system that brought heavy snow to parts of south central South Dakota yesterday is centered over Iowa this afternoon with an upper ridge building to the west of the forecast area over MT/WY/CO. Subsidence associated with the upper ridge and westerly downslope surface winds are rapidly clearing the low clouds out of the forecast area from west to east with clear skies to the west of a line roughly located from Lemmon to Valentine and low stratus to the east of that line.
945 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 Colder and windy conditions along with a chance for snow showers will follow the low tonight into Friday.
A mid/upper-level trough over the central Plains will continue to shift northeast through Friday, helping to flatten the ridge over the southeast. At the surface, a weak cold front will slowly move over the peninsula tonight into Friday, bringing a chance for a few showers.
544 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Gusty west to northwest winds behind a cold front will dominate the region tonight.
The latest sfc analysis was indicating large occluded low pressure center acrs central LK MI, with tightening west flank cyclonic pressure gradient driving increasing west to northwest sfc winds and gusts over 30 MPH. The closed upper low was seen on WV imagery over the WI/IL border, but still close enough to keep producing sctrd snow showers or R/S mix going in the east thru late afternoon to early evening. Also may have to keep some patchy freezing drizzle in mind with any loss of ice nuclei aloft while lift persists. A chance for a few flurries in the east, but over all a mainly dry day with short wave ridging sliding acrs the region. Chilly highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, and Friday night lows in the low 20s to teens.
This southeastward trajectory is being driven by a 130 kt jet streak upstream of the trough axis. The low and associated jet streak will provide fairly impressive dynamics capable of taking advantage of slightly above-normal PWATs. For the lower elevations, light rainfall will be possible this afternoon and evening, with amounts around a tenth of an inch or less.
Conditions will be cold enough to support snow across valley locations across the south, however, surface temperatures at or above freezing during the day will limit impacts.
Freezing drizzle seems to be winding down as well, with a report from Sisseton saying it has ended, and Ortonville no longer reporting UP. With the expectation of mostly cloudy skies overnight, leaned towards the warmer end of guidance.
A weakening cold front has started its approach towards east central Florida tonight, with some very isolated showers expected to develop along the boundary heading further into tonight and into early Friday morning. Overnight lows will only drop into the low 60s across rural areas and along the coast, and into the mid 60s across urban areas due to increased cloud coverage associated with the boundary. A weakening cold front will pass over east central Florida tonight through Friday, causing southwesterly winds to veer out of the west. (00Z TAFS) VFR conditions at all sites up until the arrival of a weakening cold front, around 03-06Z across the interior and 08Z along the coast.
(This afternoon through Friday) Drier air has started to filter into the area this afternoon as the surface cold front continues to trek across NW GA. A weak reinforcing cold front will push through the region overnight which will keep winds elevated during that time.
614 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 (Rest of today through Friday) High pressure persists over South Florida through the short term period continuing the streak of fair weather. Winds are gradually turning more south-southwest this afternoon and evening as high pressure shifts eastward and a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north. Tonight, expect low temperatures to be slightly warmer with low to mid 60s expected area-wide. Highs on Friday are expected to reach the mid-80s, with slightly cooler temps near the coasts.
418 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2023 The low pressure system that brought heavy snow to parts of south central South Dakota yesterday is centered over Iowa this afternoon with an upper ridge building to the west of the forecast area over MT/WY/CO. Subsidence associated with the upper ridge and westerly downslope surface winds are rapidly clearing the low clouds out of the forecast area from west to east with clear skies to the west of a line roughly located from Lemmon to Valentine and low stratus to the east of that line.
and Saturday Light snow showers and flurries will continue to taper off across the region as a mid level trough and cyclonic flow move east away from the western Great Lakes and an upper level ridge builds in across the area. Dry weather is expected tonight as high pressure passes to the south. Therefore, will lean towards warmer temps tonight with the caveat that any breaks in the clouds would lead to a tumble in temperatures.
Tonight into Friday Latest 20z surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast Wisconsin/southern Lake Michigan.
1043 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 (Rest of tonight) A mid/upper-level cyclone currently across the central Great Lakes will shift slowly east-northeastward into southern QC and adjacent portions of western New England by 12Z. Intense westerly flow aloft across the TN Valley will subside as this occurs, with broad streamline confluence between the cyclone to our north and a subtropical ridge centered across the FL Straits expected to promote dry weather conditions overnight. Present indications are that the southern edge of cold air stratus associated with the upper cyclone may reach as far south as the I-40 corridor in Middle TN, but should not penetrate into our CWFA.
Additionally, lowered the highs a little more given the latest guidance and the expectation for that pesky thick cloud deck at around the 700 mb level. Chances for showers will increase heading into Saturday morning, mainly along and east of US Hwy 281, as the lower levels saturate a bit more with the approach of a warm front and weak isentropic upglide. The increased cloud cover tonight will result in slightly warmer low temperatures in comparison to this morning, with readings generally in the 40s to around 50F. Val Verde County will be slightly warmer where less cloud cover is expected.
Updated the forecast this evening by issuing a dense fog advisory for a few counties along the Missouri River, or where the low clouds have moved east. Freezing drizzle seems to be winding down as well, with a report from Sisseton saying it has ended, and Ortonville no longer reporting UP. With the expectation of mostly cloudy skies overnight, leaned towards the warmer end of guidance.
1134 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Westerly winds have subsided in the wake of today's cold front, generally setting in the 5-10 mph range. Temperatures will be much closer to climatology overnight with lows generally in the low/mid 30s.
356 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 (Today through Saturday) Yesterday's cold front has moved to well south of the CWA this morning. High pressure will build in from the west today, and then move overhead tomorrow.
Also, there appears to be a slight increase in the overall forward speed of the storm once it enters the High Plains Saturday morning.
This wave will move into the Four Corners area tonight, across Arizona and New Mexico Friday, and then into the high plains by Saturday morning. So we'll see rain for areas where the temperatures are warmer initially, then transition to snow as temperatures cool later in the event. This initial melting due to warmer boundary layer temperatures will cut into accumulations along and south of the Missouri River. But north of the river, where temperatures will be closer to freezing and below for the duration of the precipitation, several inches of snow looks possible.
Lows are expected to bottom out in the low to mid 30s around sunrise. A much cooler day is on tap for today versus the warm windy day we saw yesterday, with highs only reaching the 40s this afternoon.
(Tonight) The evening sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging extending from KS SE through OK/ECntrl TX into N LA. Meanwhile, the evening satellite imagery indicates areas of cirrus that continue to increase from the W, and thickening as the subtropical jet has been tapped ahead of the next digging upper trough/closed low digging through Srn NV into SE CA/Srn AZ. Have lowered min temps across portions of SE OK/SW AR/N LA/Lower E TX to reflect these cooler conditions, while also tapering back the sky wording a bit, with the greatest concentration of AC cigs developing overnight across Deep E TX and the Srn sections of NCntrl LA.
Think that the most likely area for dense fog development over the next hour or two will be along the edge of the low stratus from Watford City to western Sioux County. Open wave upper level trough moves through Saturday, with the main result being an increase in west/northwesterly winds during the day, which should finally help scour out the elevated boundary layer moisture and low level stratus/fog that has plagued us for the last several days.
1132 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Summary: Snow slowly ebbs tonight with a dry spell coming up with cooler temperatures. To the northwest of this system, in the deformation area, a loss of ice is occurring as dry air makes its way in causing a little freezing drizzle which may need to be watched, but attm don't expect it to cause too many issues especially on top of the fallen snow. There is a bit of an upper level trough crossing with some vorticity atop of the cold air mass that moves overhead, but general model consensus keeps the area dry. Northeasterly gales continue into this evening as an area of low pressure slowly crosses Lake Michigan heading east. As this low departs, the pressure gradient will relax bringing much calmer conditions to Lake Superior for the remainder of the forecast.
1116 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 (This evening through Friday) We'll see quiet weather for the remainder of today and tonight as a progressive upper-ridge, currently overhead, shifts northeast into the Central Plains. A little cooler into the upper teens/low 20s in our northwest zones where less cloud cover and lighter winds will allow for more radiational cooling. Surface pressure falls across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle out ahead of the upper low tomorrow will result in increasing southeasterly surface winds across our entire CWA tomorrow afternoon out ahead of a cold front that will move across the NM/TX state line around sunset. Breezy winds will approach 20kts sustained at times otherwise, little to no impacts are expected out ahead of the advancing cold front.
1019 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 (This evening through Friday) A Pacific mid-level trough will dig into the Desert Southwest Friday and lift into the southern Rockies by early Saturday morning. Weak mid-level ridging will move move out of the area Friday as the aforementioned trough approaches from the west. As the mid-level trough approaches the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, there is a low chance for some accumulating snowfall across far northwest Oklahoma. As of right now, there is agreement in the trajectory/timing of the mid-level trough. Ultimately, the greatest chance for precipitation will occur when surface temperatures are still above freezing. That being said, close to the surface will need to wet bulb in order to get to below freezing.
The Keys reside within the western tail of an an Atlantic ridge to our east as a mid latitude trough moves off the Atlantic coast. Stable conditions are expected to retain its hold across our area despite the departing ridge. A ridge pulling away eastward over the Atlantic will result in light mostly southeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Discussion: Quieter weather today and tonight as a low pressure system continues to shift east of the Great Lakes region. Recent observations suggest wind gusts in the higher elevations have fallen into the 15-25mph range, with some isolated gusts up to 30(Cove Mountain).
As a cold front continues to clear our area, cooler and more seasonable temperatures will continue to filter in behind the front. A cold frontal boundary is tracking east across our forecast area which should allow for cooler temperatures to settle across most of the area. With this in mind, both the GFS and the ECWMF show a high pressure system over the ArkLaMiss region.
Nonetheless, with a decent snowpack still in place, only have highs rising into the low to mid 20s again. Heading into Saturday, models show a fairly pronounced upper level trough and low near the Rockies ejecting northeastward across the central CONUS.
1235 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 Colder and windy conditions along with a chance for snow showers will follow the low tonight into Friday. High pressure and dry weather are forecast for Saturday. Severe threat has ended and all of the rainfall associated with cold front has cleared. These showers should be liquid, but some frozen precipitation may mix in at times as cooler air moves in. As the pressure gradient relaxes while high pressure moves to Kentucky Friday night, winds will subside to under 10 knots and snow showers will cease. Mid level ridging will move east across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region during the day on Saturday.
Skies will begin to clear this afternoon from northeast Missouri and southern Iowa northwestward as fast moving high pressure at the surface and aloft builds into the area. High temperatures will be impacted by the cloud cover and range from the upper 20s north of Interstate 80 to the lower to mid 30s south of Interstate 80. High pressure is forecast to quickly exit eastward Friday night. Low temperatures on Saturday morning will range from the upper teens northwest of a Cedar Rapids to Dubuque line to the lower 20s southeast of that line.
1129 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Highlights: 1) Near seasonal normal on Friday and cooler for the weekend 2) Rain/snow possible Friday night - Saturday night Challenges: Precipitation types and respective accumulation on Saturday The short wave that moved through yesterday is now over the upper half of the Mississippi River Valley and headed to the Great Lakes region as a brief ridge moves in for Friday over the Central Plains. This short wave should trot straight east into the High Plains late Friday into early Saturday before progressing eastward into the central and southern Plains. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there is a lack of moisture surging this far north except for some in the High Plains. Near surface temperatures and wet-bulb temperatures will be around the freezing mark which could suggest freezing rain.
Highs on Fri will be a tad warmer than today. though some clouds will keep temps a bit warmer across the south in the 30s.
1032 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2023 The low pressure system that brought heavy snow to parts of south central South Dakota yesterday is centered over Iowa this afternoon with an upper ridge building to the west of the forecast area over MT/WY/CO. Subsidence associated with the upper ridge and westerly downslope surface winds are rapidly clearing the low clouds out of the forecast area from west to east with clear skies to the west of a line roughly located from Lemmon to Valentine and low stratus to the east of that line.
Upslope into Marquette County may yield another couple of inches of snow during the night in the high terrain. This will be due to the ability for some light LES to develop within the Wrn wind belts, becoming more SWrly as the weekend progresses, with precip chances courtesy of a vort max passing through early in the weekend, followed by the passage of a fairly weak longwave trough later in the weekend.
1253 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 Cooler and drier weather is forecast Friday through the daytime on Saturday.
Made some adjustments to the temperature trends as some locations have been warmer as the front moves in. Still expecting the lows to reach the 30s and 40s by sunrise. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Friday) An upper level trough will continue swinging through the southeast US with a weak mid level jet moving through the trough north of our area. Winds will be westerly through the afternoon and transition to a northwesterly direction this evening as the trough shifts east. High temperatures today will be in the lower 60s in the northwest to the mid 70s in the southeast. Friday high temperatures will be in the low 50s to the low 60s.
1226 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 (Rest of today through Friday) High pressure persists over South Florida through the short term period continuing the streak of fair weather. Winds are gradually turning more south-southwest this afternoon and evening as high pressure shifts eastward and a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north. Tonight, expect low temperatures to be slightly warmer with low to mid 60s expected area-wide. Highs on Friday are expected to reach the mid-80s, with slightly cooler temps near the coasts.