Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure nosing down from eastern Canada will provide a brief dry period during mid-week. An upper level trough will then move across the area later in the week. A short wave trough rolling in from the west will slide across OH/PA tonight. Will continue to hold maxes like we had them Sun and Mon without much hope for sun/mixing and slight cold advection in the lower atmos.
Max temperatures should be near yesterday's readings with warmer overnight lows due to the increasing moisture and cloud cover tonight. Biggest thing to note for today compared to the past few days will be increasing cloud cover and isolated rain chances (largely confined to areas north of I-20) in association with a passing 500mb trough. The forecast area will be briefly situated in a quasi-zonal type pattern with a developing upper low to the NW eventually to dive southward and a weak trough along the northern Gulf States.
(The rest of this afternoon ) Drier airmass behind the cold front is settling into the area, though the rainfall from past few days has kept RH values higher across much of E OK and parts of NW AR.
235 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023 High pressure will build across the region tonight through the weekend. High pressure will continue to sit over the region for tonight and Tuesday. In addition, patchy fog is expected to develop in river valleys due to the warmer waters. By Tuesday, high pressure will center over Quebec. High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will be driving our weather pattern for the foreseeable future.
Temperatures were cooler and only in the lower 70s there this afternoon. During the afternoon convection is expected to develop in the higher terrain due to heating and move west into the valleys late in the afternoon to early evening. Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer with highs in the 80s except upper 70s northeast valleys and higher elevations.
A trough is slowly moving into the Northern California interior, bringing with it evening rain and strong southerly winds. Model ensemble guidance shows the rain band associated with the trough beginning to impact the forecast area north of the I-80 by tonight. The northern portion of the forecast area will see the highest impacts, with Redding forecast to see up to half an inch of rain. Due to lingering impacts of this trough, tomorrow morning will see residual rain and cloudiness through late morning before clearing out by the afternoon. After this trough moves out of the area, weather looks to be calm and dry for the next few days.
This will be driven by additional moisture convergence and some westward moving outflows across central sections along with lift from the general elongated trough over the area. With the forecast area located to the S of a weak surface boundary and the lower levels basically moist and showing very light winds, conditions will be favorable for some patchy fog. /CME/ Tuesday night through next Monday An upper level low pressure, south of the Great Lakes is forecast to move eastward taking the trough axis over our forecast area towards the southeast.
223 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2023 Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are sunny as high pressure continues to slowly push through the area. Upper ridge to our west providing northwest flow aloft will begin to shift east and crest over the Plains region for Tue-Wed.
High pressure nosing down from eastern Canada will provide a brief dry period during mid-week. An upper level trough will then move across the area later in the week. Low clouds and areas of drizzle persisting across central PA this afternoon as deep easterly flow around eastern Canadian anticyclone with deep fetch over the Atlantic reinforces the llvl moisture. Upper trough slides PA tonight, with its forcing acting on lingering moisture to produce another round of light rain showers and drizzle to especially the central and western parts of PA. Will continue to hold maxes like we had them Sun and Mon without much hope for sun/mixing and slight cold advection in the lower atmos.
A blocking pattern will bring us warmer and dry conditions for the remainder of the work week and into the weekend.
Heading into tonight and Tuesday an upper level low will bring rounds of showers to the area. Temperatures overall will be a little cooler with the rain and cloud cover.
The exception to this is the RAP, which indicates dewpoints will rebound from their current spot in the 50s into the low 60s by tomorrow afternoon. The highest probabilities for precipitation occur across west-central Illinois and areas north and east where better moisture is forecast.
1212 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 (Today through Tuesday night) High pressure is building back across the panhandles which coupled with drier air that has intruded into the area last night will yield sunny and fair weather conditions. The building of the ridge will cause the winds to shift to a southerly direction today and then a southwesterly direction during the overnight. The position of the ridge will also not be dominant which will allow weak troughs to pass across the panhandles on Tuesday. Temperatures under the ridge will see a small increase for most areas with highs mainly in the 80s to low 90s.
300 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 A slow moving low pressure aloft will bring periods of showers and a few thunderstorms to central Illinois through mid week. Key Messages: 1) Slow moving upper low will bring numerous showers the next couple days. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low centered near Minneapolis early this afternoon, with the synoptic models in good agreement in bringing it into eastern Iowa by Tuesday afternoon.
1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) After yesterday's initial cold front diffused out, we've been tracking a secondary, back-door front pushing through the Permian Basin early this morning. With continued easterly flow into tomorrow, storm chances shift to the western high terrain as moisture pooling against the higher elevations provides a local axis of maximum moisture.
(This evening through Tuesday) Water vapor imagery shows an upper level-low over the Upper Midwest and a high pressure system over the west coast of Mexico giving northwest flow aloft locally. A low-level high pressure system to the northeast of the CWA will bring subsidence to the region resulting in mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day and into tomorrow. Due to a weak low-level pressure gradient, temperatures for tomorrow will be warmer than usual with highs in the upper 80s on the Caprock and lower 90s off the Caprock and lows ranging from the upper 50s over the northwest South Plains to lower 60s on the southern Rolling Plains.
In addition, periods of breezy south winds will occur across exposed ridges and coastal headlands.
356 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 KEY MESSAGES: Key Messages: - Showers and thunderstorms will continue to pivot around a stubborn upper low through tomorrow.
234 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 The short term period begins with a developing rex block over the Midwest as an upper level trough begins to move into the region. Through the night, the mid-level trough over MN continues its journey southeast as the blocking begins to strengthen. Current guidance is in good agreement that the next round of precipitation will occur as this trough begins to swing through the area Tuesday evening.
Upper low to the east and building high pressure ridge to the west has trapped lower level moisture across central and eastern portions of the state. Meanwhile the mentioned ridge will bring mostly clear skies to the west. Tuesday the upper low continues to slowly push eastward, yet the building high pressure ridge still traps lingering moisture. The low should be far enough removed where chances for precipitation are low and not in the forecast at this time. A developing trough in the west with ridging nearby could bring seasonal and dry conditions until this trough gets closer later this week.
(This evening through Tuesday) Washed out cold front and thunderstorms outflow boundaries will continue to bring a slight chance of shower and thunderstorms this evening, along and south of the I-10 corridor from Iraan to Ozona to Sonora to Ozona. Lows tonight will be slightly cooler, in the mid and upper 60s. It will remain warm Tuesday with highs in the lower 90s.
We may see a few showers in north Mississippi Tuesday, but a blocking pattern will bring us warmer and mostly dry conditions for the remainder of the work week and through the weekend.
1216 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023 A cold front will exit across the Gulf of Maine today.
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 1) Low pressure system lingering over the area to continue to produce rainfall tonight and even Tuesday morning 2) Dangerous swimming conditions continue tonight and are likely again Tuesday as northeast winds bring steep waves up to 5 feet and potential rip currents.
Cooling aloft from an upper level trough/cutoff low over the Upper Mississippi River Valley has further aided in destabilization, with SPC Mesoscale analysis showing 1500-2500 J/KG of ML CAPE across SE Texas. With today's rainfall and cooler ground conditions, portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area may see patchy fog develop during the early morning hours of Tuesday. Slightly cooler/drier air should should filter into SE Texas tomorrow, decreasing cloud cover and bringing highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s for Tuesday. Lows for Tuesday night should be a tad cooler, but still generally in the 60s/70s across the region.
- A warmer and drier pattern looks to prevail for the end of the week and into the weekend. We continue to be under the influence of the slow moving upper level low pressure system spinning over the region, which will allow for shower and thunderstorm chances to remain across the forecast area for the start of the work week. The vertically stacked low pressure system, which is currently over Minnesota, is forecast to pivot southeastward across southeast MN/northeast IA late today/tonight and eventually into eastern IA Tuesday. Model guidance suggests a thin ribbon of instability (CAPE ~500-1000 J/kg) building this afternoon, extending southeast of the low. This is reflected in hi-res guidance as it continues to favor a corridor/band of increased rainfall that slowly pivots with the low.
237 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023 The pattern aloft over the region this afternoon features a ridge over the Bahamas extending eastward over much of the Florida peninsula, with a low spinning over the southern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a weak trough is reflected over the southern Gulf while ridging continues across the northern part of the state.
500mb temperatures remain between -6C to -7C with the cooler temps across the northern portions of the area in Palm Beach, Hendry and Glades Counties.
(Through Tonight) High pressure will be east northeast of the region Tonight, with the flow around it allowing more moisture to stream into area. Lows in the lower 70s will be common.
The cold front acknowledged in previous discussions has made it into the southernmost reaches of our forecast area as of ~12:30 PM this afternoon. Slightly warmer afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected Tuesday afternoon (a few degrees above- average for this time of year).
249 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 (Issued 249 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023) Tonight through Tuesday night: Still expecting rounds of showers to continue through Tuesday, as low pressure moves slowly by just to the southwest. Plenty of forcing between a slow moving vort max with the upper low and persistent warm air advection aloft. Highest rainfall totals are expected to be across roughly the southwest half of the forecast area towards the low and better forcing.
Humid and warm conditions are expected at night with overnight lows that range from the low to upper 70s inland and into the low 80s along the immediate coast.
Despite a closed low advancing into the northern Ozarks, synoptic forcing/mesoscale boundaries are expected to remain further removed (to the north) such that PoP chances are unlikely across the area associated with this feature.
610 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023 High pressure will build across the region tonight through the weekend. High pressure will continue to sit over the region for tonight and Tuesday. In addition, patchy fog is expected to develop in river valleys due to the warmer waters. By Tuesday, high pressure will center over Quebec. High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will be driving our weather pattern for the foreseeable future.
Temperatures will begin a slow decline through the latter half of the week as high pressure slowly pushes farther east. Active weather including a mix of rain and snow along with much cooler temperatures is expected for the weekend.
607 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Water vapor imagery shows an upper level-low over the Upper Midwest and a high pressure system over the west coast of Mexico giving northwest flow aloft locally. A low-level high pressure system to the northeast of the CWA will bring subsidence to the region resulting in mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day and into tomorrow. Due to a weak low-level pressure gradient, temperatures for tomorrow will be warmer than usual with highs in the upper 80s on the Caprock and lower 90s off the Caprock and lows ranging from the upper 50s over the northwest South Plains to lower 60s on the southern Rolling Plains.
638 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 1) Low pressure system lingering over the area to continue to produce rainfall tonight and even Tuesday morning 2) Dangerous swimming conditions continue tonight and are likely again Tuesday as northeast winds bring steep waves up to 5 feet and potential rip currents.
High pressure nosing down from eastern Canada will provide a brief dry period during mid-week. An upper level trough will then move across the area later in the week. The gradient between low pressure off off the Mid Atlantic coast and high pressure building south from Quebec is producing a persistent, moist easterly flow over PA this evening. LAPS sfc analysis shows a back door cold front currently pushing southwestward across the forecast area. By afternoon, high pressure and drier air nosing south from Quebec could result in brightening skies across the northern and especially northeast part of the forecast area.
900 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 A slow moving low pressure aloft will bring periods of showers and a few thunderstorms to central Illinois through mid week. Lows in the lower 60s still look on track for tonight. 37 Key Messages: 1) Slow moving upper low will bring numerous showers the next couple days. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low centered near Minneapolis early this afternoon, with the synoptic models in good agreement in bringing it into eastern Iowa by Tuesday afternoon.
832 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023 A backdoor cold front will move south through the area tonight. Strong high pressure will follow, and ridge from eastern Canada southward through the Carolinas through the work week. Latest model guidance is showing areas of light showers later tonight, mainly across the NE Coastal Plain due to saturation increasing in the low levels along with a shift to a more northeasterly onshore flow.
High pressure nosing down from eastern Canada will provide a brief dry period during mid-week. An upper level trough will then move across the area later in the week. The gradient between low pressure off off the Mid Atlantic coast and high pressure building south from Quebec is producing a persistent, moist easterly flow over PA this evening. LAPS sfc thte analysis shows a back door cold front currently pushing southwestward across the forecast area. By afternoon, high pressure and drier air nosing south from Quebec could result in brightening skies across the northern and especially northeast part of the forecast area.
309 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2023 High pressure over the region will maintain warm and dry conditions through Tuesday. As the ridge axis shifts east through the day on Tuesday, downslope flow will allow temperatures to climb into the 80s across most of the western and central zones, with 70s over the far east. STP For the extended, troughing located to our west will bring in lowering heights through the period. With this and southwesterly flow in the mid levels, several disturbances will ride up the eastern side of the trough, bringing increased chances for precip and cooler temperatures.
917 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023 High pressure will build across the region tonight through the weekend. High pressure will continue to sit over the region for tonight and Tuesday. In addition, patchy fog is expected to develop in river valleys due to the warmer waters. By Tuesday, high pressure will center over Quebec. High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will be driving our weather pattern for the foreseeable future.
Therefore, the typical diurnal pattern of land areas staying dry overnight should be disrupted by the high moisture and upper level forcing in the form of upper level divergence.
Some spotty cloud cover over the higher terrain, but not expecting any chances for showers across the area today or tomorrow as ridging continues to build overhead. The San Luis Valley could see some spotty frost around, with temperatures cooling into the mid 30s, though not expecting another drop below freezing for tonight. Key messages: 1) Spotty critical fire weather conditions will be possible later this week for some of the lower elevations.
515 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2023 An upper low spins over MN, while another one sits off the Pac NW. Upper ridging between the two lows will keep weather mild and dry through much of this week. Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s, which is near to above average (average highs for this time of year are in the low to mid 70s).
618 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 The short term period begins with a developing rex block over the Midwest as an upper level trough begins to move into the region. Through the night, the mid-level trough over MN continues its journey southeast as the blocking begins to strengthen. Current guidance is in good agreement that the next round of precipitation will occur as this trough begins to swing through the area Tuesday evening.
Have kept the mention of patchy fog, but most of the fog will likely be confined to the typically cooler valleys.
An Omega block is expected to dominate weather patterns for the foreseeable future, bringing warmer than normal temperatures to the Mid-South. ANS We may see a few showers in north Mississippi Tuesday, but a blocking pattern will bring us warmer and mostly dry conditions for the remainder of the work week and through the weekend.
Upper ridging will keep skies clear tonight and bring lows in the mid to upper 40s for most. Torgerson High pressure over the region will maintain warm and dry conditions through Tuesday. As the ridge axis shifts east through the day on Tuesday, downslope flow will allow temperatures to climb into the 80s across most of the western and central zones, with 70s over the far east. STP For the extended, troughing located to our west will bring in lowering heights through the period. With this and southwesterly flow in the mid levels, several disturbances will ride up the eastern side of the trough, bringing increased chances for precip and cooler temperatures.
Some improvement in cloud base will commence through the evening hours, as brief window of drying occurs across the lowest 3-4k ft. Improveming depth to the low level moisture will translate into renewed reduction of cloud base late tonight and especially early Tuesday. Cloud base will continue to lift early tonight, potentiallly affording a window of clear sky across the lowest 5000 ft.
622 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 (The rest of this afternoon ) Drier airmass behind the cold front is settling into the area, though the rainfall from past few days has kept RH values higher across much of E OK and parts of NW AR.
656 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 A slow moving low pressure aloft will bring periods of showers and a few thunderstorms to central Illinois through mid week. Key Messages: 1) Slow moving upper low will bring numerous showers the next couple days. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low centered near Minneapolis early this afternoon, with the synoptic models in good agreement in bringing it into eastern Iowa by Tuesday afternoon.
The pattern aloft over the region this afternoon features a ridge over the Bahamas extending eastward over much of the Florida peninsula, with a low spinning over the southern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a weak trough is reflected over the southern Gulf while ridging continues across the northern part of the state.
With temperatures running cooler than blended guidance is currently suggesting, kept overnight lows on the cooler side, bottoming out in the upper 50s/lower 60s.
Broad scale subsidence to the west of the departing trough has significantly reduced the risk for precipitation, but we will leave a very low (10-15%) POP for showers across the southwestern corner of the CWFA, as the northeastern edge of a plume of richer boundary layer moisture will remain to our immediate southwest. Present indications are that skies will continue to partially clear during the evening hours, but high clouds may return early Tuesday morning as mid-level winds back to WNW in response to the motion of an upper low dropping southeastward across southern MN/northern IA.
Upper level trough remains situated over and near the Yucatan Peninsula with a ridge nosing in across the southwestern North Atlantic. It is the presence of this ridge which is hampering more robust widespread convection like we saw this time yesterday. From synopsis, a trough near the Yucatan Channel will slide westward over the next several day as the Atlantic ridge builds back into the region.
ATAF Upper low to the east and building high pressure ridge to the west has trapped lower level moisture across central and eastern portions of the state. Meanwhile the mentioned ridge will bring mostly clear skies to the west. Tuesday the upper low continues to slowly push eastward, yet the building high pressure ridge still traps lingering moisture. The low should be far enough removed where chances for precipitation are low and not in the forecast at this time. A developing trough in the west with ridging nearby could bring seasonal and dry conditions until this trough gets closer later this week.
Expect SW flow aloft between a Q- stationary ridge over the Bahamas/Greater Antilles and a pair of slow-moving short wave troughs embedded northern and southern streams. Out ahead of the southern stream trough, ripples of H50 vorticity will stream NE across FL, beneath increasingly divergent H25 flow. SE surface/low level flow on the SW flank of the Atlantic ridge will advect anomalously high PWATs (2. 3") for late Sep into ECFL, with guidance hinting at development of a broad inverted trough, which will sit overhead. Flow will be mainly E-SE, especially offshore the Space/Treasure Coasts, but probably more backed to E-NE north of the Cape, given the weak inverted trough that may be in place along the ECFL coast.
501 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2023 Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are sunny as high pressure continues to slowly push through the area. Upper ridge to our west providing northwest flow aloft will begin to shift east and crest over the Plains region for Tue-Wed.
740 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 KEY MESSAGES: Key Messages: - Showers and thunderstorms will continue to pivot around a stubborn upper low through tomorrow.
632 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 We may see a few showers in north Mississippi Tuesday, but a blocking pattern will bring us warmer and mostly dry conditions for the remainder of the work week and through the weekend.
646 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 (This evening through Tuesday Night) An upper trough axis moving southeast across Northern Louisiana and Northeast Texas is providing additional forcing for ascent along a stationary front just south of the forecast area. The convection should continue to increase in coverage and intensity over the next few hours before gradually diminishing and exiting the area after sunset as the upper trough axis moves southeast out of the area by midnight.