Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
633 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 A developing coastal low pressure system as well as a cold front moving in from the west has brought wet conditions to the region today and tonight.
548 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Conditions will turn windy and cooler over the weekend with frequent showers downwind of Lake Erie.
535 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION A weakening high pressure ridge will keep North Central, Central, and Southwest Montana dry today with warmer than normal temperatures.
538 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Conditions will turn windy and cooler over the weekend with frequent showers downwind of Lake Erie.
140 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 A dry cold front will continue to move across the FA through this afternoon putting an end to the unseasonably warm temperatures that are running about 10 degrees above normal.
High pressure expected across the area as a cold front moves through the area early in the period. Discussion: High pressure moving into the area today is expected to continue through Sunday. This low will move out of the area as high pressure builds in. Tomorrow, the main question becomes high temperatures, while a cooler airmass is in place, moderation occurs during the day and better llvl temps move. Have decided to go slightly warmer than the NBM by a couple of degrees.
The dry cold front is located near the Tampa Bay area and will continue to push south through the rest of the afternoon and evening. This front will not have a big impact, just some slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday morning. As a result, the high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will lift northeastward and stretch along Eastern US. At the surface, high pressure will remain stretched along the Atlantic seaboard with increasing NE to E winds through the period.
High pressure builds in for tonight and Sunday, bringing lighter winds and cooler air. A cold front is actively pushing across central Illinois this morning. Clipper low pressure was located over northern MN early this morning, and will dive southeast into northern IN this afternoon. Showers will remain northeast of the low track into the southern Great Lakes, so the main impact on our weather will be gusty northwest winds in a tight MSLP gradient on the back side of the low. Highs to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with a north/south gradient behind the front from the upper 60s to mid 70s. High pressure settles in from the northwest Saturday night and Sunday, bringing lighter winds and cooler air.
Strong southwesterly winds around the 850mb heights should bring gusty winds to the highest peaks of the mountains overnight.
Any isolated to widely scattered showers mainly across Wisconsin this afternoon will diminish by late in the day with the trough passage as high pressure builds in. Winds will lighten overnight with the approach of the ridge axis.
A cold front will approach the region, but ahead of the front it should be a day of above normal temperatures with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
117 PM PDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Cooler conditions this weekend with rain expected for the Valley and mountains late tonight into Sunday.
As the high builds farther south and east, the gradient relaxes and winds will diminish the remainder of the afternoon. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in upper 50s to low 60s east to the low to mid 60s from the James Valley and points west. Will continue to leave the potential out due to the low potential.
236 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Through Sunday: Dry weather will continue through the near term as mid level ridging builds eastward over our area through tomorrow. Periodic high clouds will persist as they spill over this ridge. A weak cold front will slip into the central AR to north MS area tomorrow and stall, setting up a temp gradient between more seasonable conditions in north MS/Golden Triangle to continued well above normal temps across much of the remainder of the area. /DL/ By Sunday night, deep ridging is progged to build into the Lower Mississippi Valley as a high pressure forms across the Southeast and moves into the Mid-Atlantic region.
There will be a trade-off between warmer low level thermal fields ahead of an approaching front over KS, and high cloud cover that is spreading across the region from the outflow of Hurricane Norma in the Pacific. These will serve to dampen potential heating somewhat, but this should be offset by warming in the lower atmosphere leading to another day with high temperatures in the 80s across the area.
The low level moisture will start back into our area too later today with a 60 dew point for Lufkin keeping on our fringe moving NW.
This, in combination with persistent high clouds from Norma, will limit cooling overnight and keep temperatures in the low to mid 60s areawide. Into tomorrow, the upper level ridge that has kept the region warm will shift eastward and highs will dip a few degrees into the mid to upper 80s.
For Door County, gusty northwest winds off the Bay of Green Bay will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer and prevent frost formation.
High clouds are forecast to move in which may keep temperatures in the mid to upper 50s; however, if clouds take their time to move in temperatures will be a bit cooler. Opted to keep much of the region in the mid to upper 50s, and bumped temperatures east of I-75 in GA and the eastern FL Big Bend temperatures around the low to mid 50s.
A weak cold front will impact the region overnight, resulting in cooler temperatures for Sunday.
315 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Key Messages: - Breezy conditions continue into this evening in the wake of a dry cold front. - Highs Sunday about 10 degrees cooler than today. Low pressure near Chicago this afternoon has an attendant cold front roughly along the Wabash River. This low will head into western Ohio later this evening. High pressure will build in behind this front.
High cloud cover and a E-SE wind component will likely keep temps a degree or so cooler across much of the area.
Key Message: 1) Slightly cooler today, though temperatures will still be well above seasonal averages. Upper ridge over Colorado will flatten somewhat today, as weak s/w energy moves through the central Rockies. Combination of lower heights and cooler mid-levels, plus a weak easterly surface gradient, will lead to max temps some 5-10 degf cooler than yesterday on the plains.
Increasing clouds with seasonal temperatures today ahead of an incoming cold front.
(Rest of today through Sunday) Weak high pressure over the GOM currently supports dry northwesterly flow over SFL, with the current airmass characterized by PWATs under 1 inch (around the 10th percentile for late October) and 850mb temperatures slightly above normal. This airmass is making for a generally comfortable day over SFL, as although temperatures are running a few degrees above climo, dewpoints are only in the low to mid 60s. We should cool off fairly efficiently after sunset with most locations dropping into the 60s again tonight, although some of the warmer spots in the east coast metro may see lows right around 70.
While 850 mb temps fall into the 2-C to -4C range by tomorrow morning, which normally would be cold enough for lake effect, the entrance of ridging area keeps inversion heights and convective depths capped below 10k feet which keeps lake effect chances near zero.
Mid-level ridging to the west and mid-leveling trough over the eastern CONUS is keeping the region in northwest flow aloft. A dry surface cold front has made its way through the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, allowing for dry air to advect into the area. The cooler air behind the front will begin to finally make its way into the area late this evening and overnight, allowing low temperatures to fall into the 40s.
404 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Cooler temperatures with gusty winds are expected tonight into Sunday as a coastal storm pulls away into Atlantic Canada, with wrap around showers persisting.
The wave will help to nudge the persistent ridge overhead eastward into the Plains as it passes by across the northwest corner of the CWA. High temperatures may approach records for some of the warmer spots once again. After a chilly start Sunday morning, another ridge moving in from the west will support sunny skies, dry weather, and another day of unseasonable warmth to round out the weekend. High temperatures in the lower desert valleys will soar to near record territory, topping out in the 70s with even some 80s possible in canyon country across southeast Utah. Highs in the higher terrain will mostly be in the 50s and 60s. A large trough starts digging into the Great Basin Sunday night, shifting prevailing flow across eastern Utah and western Colorado to the southwest.
This persistent cloud cover will also keep tonight's lows in the lower to mid 60s across most locations.
(Through Tonight) Pleasant weather and temps continue with weak high pressure building in from the west this afternoon. Low temp forecast in the lower to mid 50s, favoring a blend of the NBM and MOS guidance.
/96 (Now through Sunday) Northwesterly flow aloft this morning will become mostly zonal through the remainder of the weekend as the upper trough continues to lift northeast away from the region. Northeasterly surface winds this morning in the wake of a cold front will become light and variable through the remainder of the weekend as weak high pressure settles across the area. A much drier airmass will advect into the region today with dew points dropping into the low/mid 40s away from the coast, resulting in minimum afternoon relative humidity values ranging from 20-25 percent. High temperatures over the weekend will reach the low to mid 80s, with the exception of the upper 70s at the beaches.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are mostly in the lower 80s with a few pockets of mid 80s with the Big Pine Key RAWS reaching 86 degrees.
Weak high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will begin to nose eastward across the area resulting in a pleasant and quiet overnight. A little cooler tonight over the interior/Volusia county with lows in the mid to upper 50s except around 60F I 4 corridor; holding in the mid 60s along the coast south of the Cape.
Large upper trough centered along the east coast will only flatten a little through the weekend with moderately strong NW flow firmly in place.
Wx map shows weak high pressure over the Northern Gulf of Mexico keeping south to southeast winds around 5-10 mph across the area. If the latest guidance for this afternoon continues the low visibility trend, will be issuing the Dense Fog Advisory for most of the area.
For Sunday, the upper level ridge axis will continue to shift eastward as a short wave trough skirts north of the region.
Top of the hour obs are all in the mid to upper 80s along and south of I-20 with cooler lower 80s across our northern half. The surface winds continue from the S/SE south of I-20, but a few SW sticks are over our north, as high pressure falls away to the east. It will be warmer overnight as our dew points climb through the 50s this afternoon, except in our parishes still in the air mass's grip with a range of mid to upper 40s.
344 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 A cold front will sweep across the region tonight. Another high pressure ridge will build in from the Upper Midwest Sunday afternoon through evening. A large upper level trough remains over the Great Lakes region into the Northeast CONUS. After the cold front passes through, the rain chances will become focus with the lake effect rain showers through Sunday morning. High pressure starts to build in Sunday night with clearing skies. The center of the high will move across Ohio late Sunday night with lighter winds. Temperatures will likely drop to the lower 30s away from the lakeshore and middle to upper 30s near the lakeshore.
318 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 (Issued 304 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023) Tonight and Sunday: High pressure will move across southwest Wisconsin tonight into early Sunday. Winds will be light and temperatures will likely drop into the lower 30s so expecting some frost. Partly cloudy to sunny skies and light winds are expecting on Sunday as the high moves across southern Wisconsin.
239 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT-TERM, WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS THROUGH SUNDAY, AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION.
While there are still some uncertainties in the /exact/ track of the low (impacting exactly /where/ the gustiest conditions will evolve), we should see /some/ of this migrate to the E into the local area by late this evening, but the setup will be somewhat tempered here. Skies will attempt to clear in the W very late tonight through Sunday morning in the wake of the clipper system, allowing for temps to dip into the upper 30s in WC OH and lower 40s elsewhere around 12z before rebounding into the lower/mid 50s region-wide by Sunday afternoon.
250 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Low pressure will track southeast across the area tonight bringing scattered light rain showers before drier conditions return Sunday. Dry conditions will persist through the first part of the upcoming week, as high pressure builds across the area. Cool temperatures to range from the lower 50s northeast to the upper 50s southwest.
These clouds, along with increased low level moisture from southerly winds at the surface will allow high temperatures to be just a few degrees cooler with highs mainly in the mid 80s to near 90.
1233 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 (Today through Sunday) Another rain-free and warm day is in store for South Texas today with high pressure still in control aloft. At the lower levels, a tighter pressure gradient across the state leading to a slightly stronger onshore flow over the area will allow for a gradual moisture increase. Low temperatures tonight will be a few degrees warmer than this morning, with high temperatures on Sunday topping in the mid 80s to low 90s range due to increased cloud cover.
1226 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 (Today and tonight) Cirrus bands associated with the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Norma will continue to advect northeastward over northern Mexico and into the region throughout the next 24 hours as the mid/upper-level ridge currently centered over northern Mexico continues to dampen in amplitude. Therefore, geopotential heights will steadily fall as the mean troughing to the west attenuates the mid/upper-level ridge entirely. Cross-barrier flow associated with flattening ridge is expected to spawn a lee cyclone near the Raton Mesa this afternoon, resulting in a slight uptick in southerly winds until the cessation of vertical mixing occurs at dusk. Another mild night is in store as the high-altitude cirrus shield lingers overhead.
High pressure will move across southwest Wisconsin tonight into early Sunday. Winds will be light and temperatures will likely drop into the lower 30s so expecting some frost. Partly cloudy to sunny skies and light winds are expecting on Sunday as the high moves across southern Wisconsin.
Highs are still expected to range from around 70 on the Plateau to the low 80s along the Tennessee River. Winds will then become northwesterly tonight as a weak dry fropa occurs, with much cooler temperatures expected on Sunday with highs only in the 60s to low 70s.
Norma is making landfall on the Baja peninsula this afternoon and will see the mid- level circulation open into a trough pretty quickly. The bulk of the moisture associated with this will pass west and north of us, but moisture will deepen here and will see some vorticity associated with this trough pass over the region later Sunday into Sunday night. Fog is questionable tonight with the low clouds developing.
623 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Through Sunday: Dry weather will continue through the near term as mid level ridging builds eastward over our area through tomorrow. Periodic high clouds will persist as they spill over this ridge. A weak cold front will slip into the central AR to north MS area tomorrow and stall, setting up a temp gradient between more seasonable conditions in north MS/Golden Triangle to continued well above normal temps across much of the remainder of the area. /DL/ By Sunday night, deep ridging is progged to build into the Lower Mississippi Valley as a high pressure forms across the Southeast and moves into the Mid-Atlantic region.
929 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Low pressure will strengthen to the northeast with another cold front pushing through the region this weekend.
754 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Low pressure will track southeast across the area tonight bringing scattered light rain showers before drier conditions return Sunday. Dry conditions will persist through the first part of the upcoming week, as high pressure builds across the area. Cool temperatures to range from the lower 50s northeast to the upper 50s southwest.
A weak cold front to our north will slowly sag south tonight which will aid in pushing the high level clouds further south by morning.
As a result, weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico and is generating quite light northwesterly breezes across the Keys. Short Term Update - The gulf high will remain in place with a narrow ridge extending eastward across South Florida and the Keys. As a result, overnight lows are expected to range quite a bit from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. A weak ridge across the area will result in winds being light and tending out of the northwest.
Nice and quiet Saturday afternoon across the Sunshine State as a dry cold front across Central FL is slowly moving south. Latest surface observations are showing temperatures from the lower 70s to lower 80s across the region at this time. The dry cold front is located near the Tampa Bay area and will continue to push south through the rest of the afternoon and evening. This front will not have a big impact, just some slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday morning. As a result, the high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will lift northeastward and stretch along Eastern US. At the surface, high pressure will remain stretched along the Atlantic seaboard with increasing NE to E winds through the period.
As the disturbance moves away from the region Sunday, high pressure will settle over the region resulting in fair dry conditions for the first part of the week. Any morning cloud cover will fade with diminishing winds Sunday afternoon as high pressure builds overhead for Sunday night.
These readings are noticeably warmer than MOS guidance and more in line with the middle of the pack. High clouds are forecast to move in which may keep temperatures in the mid to upper 50s; however, if clouds take their time to move in temperatures will be a bit cooler. Opted to keep much of the region in the mid to upper 50s, and bumped temperatures east of I-75 in GA and the eastern FL Big Bend temperatures around the low to mid 50s.
535 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance A dry cold front will continue to move across the FA through this afternoon putting an end to the unseasonably warm temperatures that are running about 10 degrees above normal.
Forecast low temps with cooler readings in areas near OK/KS border and across NW AR line up with current obs, though some spots in far NE OK are within a few degrees of mins. High cloud cover and a E-SE wind component will likely keep temps a degree or so cooler across much of the area.
A cold front is currently analyzed just north of and parallel to Interstate 40. AC3 A weak cold front will impact the region overnight, resulting in cooler temperatures for Sunday.
The real "action" comes tomorrow afternoon when a cold front pushes through the state, bringing a mix of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA with any snow showers staying isolated to the mountaintops.
GAH AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT-TERM, WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS THROUGH SUNDAY, AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION.
Key Messages: - Breezy conditions continue into this evening in the wake of a dry cold front. - Highs Sunday about 10 degrees cooler than today. Low pressure near Chicago this afternoon has an attendant cold front roughly along the Wabash River. This low will head into western Ohio later this evening. High pressure will build in behind this front.
916 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 As of 900 PM CDT, temperatures are approaching the mid-to-upper 60s under clear skies and light southerly winds that keep slightly milder temperature minimums in the lower 60s overnight. Top of the hour obs are all in the mid to upper 80s along and south of I-20 with cooler lower 80s across our northern half. The surface winds continue from the S/SE south of I-20, but a few SW sticks are over our north, as high pressure falls away to the east. It will be warmer overnight as our dew points climb through the 50s this afternoon, except in our parishes still in the air mass's grip with a range of mid to upper 40s.
Otherwise expecting drier conditions tonight into Sunday with high pressure building down across the region. High pressure will move across southwest Wisconsin tonight into early Sunday. Winds will be light and temperatures will likely drop into the lower 30s so expecting some frost. Partly cloudy to sunny skies and light winds are expecting on Sunday as the high moves across southern Wisconsin.
609 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 A weak cold front will impact the region overnight, resulting in cooler temperatures for Sunday.
2nd is it looks like temperatures will be warmer and the clouds building will help that as well.
Increasing high clouds this evening as the next upper level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. Clouds could keep low temperatures Sunday morning a degree or two warmer. The upper level trough reaches the Northern California/Southwestern Oregon coast Sunday morning and will move inland reaching the Intermountain West Sunday night.
To start, the system that broke the heat will take into tomorrow to prevent warm temperatures east of the Cascades and NorCal, where temperatures this afternoon remain in the low-to-mid 70s. There is also that the track of this low pressure center is trending along a more southerly storm track. Colder air will also start to funnel into the region, bringing afternoon max temperatures into the upper-50s to lower-60s for everywhere except the Lower Klamath River Valley near Somes Bar, where temperatures into the mid-70s are still forecast.
1042 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Low pressure will track southeast across the area tonight, bringing scattered light rain showers before drier conditions return Sunday. Dry conditions will persist through the first part of the upcoming week, as high pressure builds across the area. Low pressure and a frontal boundary will quickly move east/southeast overnight. Winds should lessen toward morning as the low departs. Cool temperatures to range from the lower 50s northeast to the upper 50s southwest.
Probably 10 degrees cooler, which is much more seasonal.
Forecast warmer than normal morning lows still look achievable. /22/ Through Sunday: Dry weather will continue through the near term as mid level ridging builds eastward over our area through tomorrow. Periodic high clouds will persist as they spill over this ridge. A weak cold front will slip into the central AR to north MS area tomorrow and stall, setting up a temp gradient between more seasonable conditions in north MS/Golden Triangle to continued well above normal temps across much of the remainder of the area. /DL/ By Sunday night, deep ridging is progged to build into the Lower Mississippi Valley as a high pressure forms across the Southeast and moves into the Mid-Atlantic region.
Upper-troughing returns this weekend along with rain showers. Additional troughing is looking more likely into midweek as well with continued precipitation chances.
The combination of clear to partly cloudy skies tonight and light winds will lead to widespread frost and a potential for some locations to drop below freezing early Monday morning.
High pressure will build across the Ohio River Valley and across the mid Appalachians tomorrow, as upper level ridging moves across the Southeast. Dry and warmer than average conditions continue.