Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Rest of today through Wednesday) The set up for South FL the next couple of days features upper level high pressure over the western Gulf and central Atlantic, and an upper low over the Great Lakes region. With high temps in the lower 90s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s, heat index values will be in triple digits and will hit criteria in some locations, but not long enough and over a large enough portion of the counties to warrant an adv today. It'll be another very mild night with low temps in the lower 70s around the lake, to upper 70s across the metro.
Cold front and a west-to-east moving line of thunderstorms will approach our area by Wednesday mid-day.
Overnight temperatures will vary, ranging from the low 50s in far western Kansas to the upper 50s in central Kansas.
Periods of rain and thunderstorms will continue for the next several days as temperatures trend warmer.
The mid to upper level ridge will remain over the southern plains. The low level flow will be from the south to southeast keeping a warm, moist airmass in place.
A brief respite in the rain expected Wednesday as a transitory upper ridge axis moves through the CWA.
/JLH (Now through Wednesday) An upper low over the Great Lakes moves slowly off towards the New England area while a modest upper ridge over the south central states retreats westward. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe storms over roughly the northern and central portion of the forecast area for today, then for Wednesday an enhanced to slight risk is in place for nearly the entire area with the higher risk over the northern portion. Lows tonight range from the upper 60s well inland to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere.
As flat ridging returns Wednesday, temperatures will warm another 5 to 8 degrees, putting us within a couple degrees of normal values for this time of year. With broad troughiness to our west this week, the area will remain under southwesterly flow aloft.
306 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 998mb low pressure is over eastern upper MI, while a closed 500mb low is drifting east from the Thumb. Overnight, this outermost rain band will try to return eastward along with the parent upper low.
An active surface boundary was stalled well to our south while we were experiencing some nice dry air circulating around a big Great Lakes trough.
The highest concentration looks to be over the eastern half of the CWA.
250 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Convective elements within cold core of stacked low pressure will fill in late this afternoon into the evening and increase shower chances as coverage improves from 19z to 22z-00z and then holds on through 02z before dissipating with the loss of daytime heating. Shower coverage will abate late this evening into the overnight hours with just isolated light activity over the lakes as airmass is cold enough for some lake enhancement within cyclonic northwesterly flow on the backside of the slowly exiting low pressure with dry conditions persisting through Wednesday into Wednesday night before another strong upper trough drops sharply south into the region from Ontario.
(18Z TAFS) Periods of showers and storms will affect the area with the highest coverage expected this afternoon and late tonight into Wednesday morning. /29 (Now through Wednesday) An upper low over the Great Lakes moves slowly off towards the New England area while a modest upper ridge over the south central states retreats westward. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe storms over roughly the northern and central portion of the forecast area for today, then for Wednesday an enhanced to slight risk is in place for nearly the entire area with the higher risk over the northern portion. Lows tonight range from the upper 60s well inland to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere.
It will be cooler in the east away from the warmer temps aloft and also due to onshore winds. Low end shower/storm chances will continue during Wed evening and overnight as a back door cold front moves in from the north.
The clearing skies will allow for temperatures to warm quite a bit warmer than yesterday, with highs getting back into the mid 80s this afternoon for much of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The more intense storms should stay south of the area into northern and central Texas near an effective warm front and where the atmosphere has had more of a chance to destabilize this morning.
Low clouds will linger through most of the remaining afternoon over our eastern zones, with a 15-20 degree temperature gradient at times between our far southwest counties that will eventually climb into the low 90s today, and our northeast counties that will struggle to reach 80. Another dryline will develop tomorrow with stronger mixing than we'll see today, and thus a more eastern extent for the dryline and warmer temperatures than we'll realize this afternoon, mostly into the upper 80s and low 90s.
Surface cold front looks to have stalled near the southern NC and northeastern SC coasts early this afternoon with dewpoints haven fallen into the 50s in some spots inland. The aforementioned cold front will stall through the day and shift northward through the area overnight. Lows should be in the lower to mid 60s inland and closer to 70 near the coast. Upper level disturbances rotating around an upper low over the Great Lakes and NE U. Continued unsettled weather as a second upper low remains over the Great Lakes and NE U.
The Ozarks remained in a northwesterly/northerly flow pattern today with a strong, persistent upper level low over the Great Lakes region and a developing Ridge over the west. Synoptic models do show a weak wave or area of low pressure sliding through the flow across the plains which may provide enough energy for a shower or two in far southwestern Missouri of southeastern Kansas. Overnight lows will again be unseasonably cool with lows in the lower 50s in the eastern Ozarks to around 60 degrees along and west of I-49. Upper level ridging will begin to makes its way east during the day Wednesday which should allow the weak wave to move east as well.
A cold front sweeping east Wednesday morning will bring a wind shift to the west or northwest between 10-15z across all terminals. Afternoon temperatures will be cooler, as the airmass continues to dry out.
1252 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Concur with deterministic global/mesoscale models that the upper level high pressure system will remain quasi-stationary over the region, while an upper disturbance moves around the northern periphery of the upper high.
136 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 The world's most obvious upper low is seen on morning sat imagery over se lower MI. Places near Saginaw Bay will still reach near 70f to the lower 70s. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level low pressure pinwheeling slowly east across lower Michigan early this morning, with its attendant surface reflection pivoting back northwest north of Georgian Bay. Otherwise, largely dry conditions under partly to mostly cloudy skies are found south of the big bridge. Upper level low will continue to move slowly east, reaching vicinity southeast Ontario by early Wednesday morning. Lows tonight mostly in the lower and middle 40s. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level low will continue to depart east of the area heading through midweek.
Surface winds have shifted to the southeast to south as high pressure in the western North Atlantic slowly builds into the region. This drier air will move in conjunction with a low to mid-level ridge that will continue to build into the area.
Low temperatures should range from the mid 40s in the far north where skies clear to the lower 50s in most other places. A jet moving south through the northwest upper flow and an approaching backdoor cold front should produce scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Behind this, the most recent model runs continue to lean towards an overall drier forecast, with upper ridging keeping most of precipitation out of our area.
244 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Unusually strong westerlies will maintain a very active weather pattern through much of the forecast period as a strong subtropical ridge remains anchored over TX while a deep upper low generally remains fixed over the northeast CONUS. While we have a good idea of the weather pattern that will impact us for a long duration, confidence in the near term forecast details is on the low side because of disagreement among NWP models with convective evolution. We continue to be impacted by zonal flow of an upper level low off the western coast.
A broad low pressure circulation over the Great Basin will once again aide in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening. A cold front associated with a Gulf of Alaska low pressure, is still on track to move across the Northern Rockies late this evening through Wednesday morning. Wednesday's afternoon temperatures will feel quite a bit cooler compared to recent days with the lower dewpoints, though daytime highs will only be a few degrees below normal. Along with cooler temperatures, a tight westerly pressure gradient will produce gusty westerly winds, with gusts around 30-40 mph for much of the Northern Rockies.
A weak, slow moving upper low continues to drift to the southeast across eastern Colorado. This upper low will continue to weaken as it meanders towards southwest Kansas overnight. A return to more seasonable weather is expected on Wednesday, as ridging briefly builds into the area. Mostly clear skies and increasing mid-level temperatures should get high temperatures back into the 70s across the lower elevations. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain during the afternoon, with a couple of showers or storms potentially reaching the urban corridor later in the day.
Models have become more aggressive with some storms redeveloping along and north of the boundary, roughly along the nose of the low level jet, as isentropic lift increases over the front. Finally, temperatures for tomorrow will likely be warmer than today, although the Big Country will also continue to be cooler than areas farther south.
216 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half of the week as our air will be moving in from the northwest. The upper low will remain over the Great Lakes region slowly dawdling eastward through the period. The upper low will finally shift east into southern Quebec/New York. By Wednesday afternoon much of the convection will have shifted eastward across the ridges to the east.
302 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 A very large, anomalous upper level low (ULL) continues to spin over the Great Lakes region this afternoon. With the presence of the ULL to the north and subtle high pressure to the south, this has resulted in a modest pressure gradient and breezy westerly to southwesterly winds across the region more typical of an April/May setup. Gusts so far today have topped out in the low 30mph range across the northern zones. With winds staying steady overnight, lows will be 'warmer' vs this morning, only dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s. Tomorrow is shaping up to be a more typical June-like day in terms of temperatures as the ULL slowly departs to the east and warmer temperatures advect in from the west/southwest.
Discussion: Satellite imagery this afternoon continues to show a deep upper level low across the Great Lakes while further south, enhanced lift/moisture can be seen on WV moving across the southeast states. Guidance suggests cooler mid level temperatures on Wednesday should steepen lapse rates leading to increasing instability and increasing thunderstorm chances.
A broad area of low pressure was losing its influence over the state today with elevated winds remaining, but less cloud cover. High pressure will settle in the state tonight, calming winds for tomorrow. Upper level ridging will allow for temperatures to continue to warm tomorrow.
1243 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 (Today and tonight) With high pressure and zonal flow aloft, hot and drier conditions are expected to setup over West Central Texas today.
A cold front is progged to move through the region this evening. Additionally, depending on the thickness of the haze/smoke could affect the high temperatures tonight and tomorrow.
A deck of relatively thick high clouds is forecast to develop through the afternoon, keeping temperatures from getting even warmer than today. Temperatures tomorrow night will unfortunately be a little bit warmer than tonight.
1101 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 High pressure will pass across the southern Appalachians today, with low pressure over the Great Lakes. The low is expected to drift south into the Ohio Valley Wednesday.
Another round of thunderstorms is possible this afternoon into the early evening over the higher terrain in the Sierra and southern Great Basin.
There is a weak cold front sagging southward from southern Manitoba, which is accompanied by thicker clouds and a little more smoke.
1114 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Today: The warming trend continues! Taking a look across the area this morning, mostly clear and quiet conditions continue as wildfire smoke continues to be transported into the area via the upper level closed low over the Great Lakes Region. Expect the wildfire smoke to hang out aloft for the next several days as the closed low continues its slow eastward motion towards the eastern CONUS. Otherwise, heights will rise as upper level ridging continues to slowly push eastward into the northern plains. As a result, temperatures will be a bit warmer than yesterday with highs expected to peak out in the low to mid 80s.
1246 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Cooler and drier for the most part today courtesy of a brief high pressure.
327 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Periods of rain forecast through Tuesday night as low pressure moves across the Great Lakes region.
Drier and slightly warmer conditions will follow into Wednesday with highs in the 70s.
An upper level trough over southern Utah continues to slowly move east, with an extensive cloud shield over extreme SE Oregon, northern NV, and southern Idaho. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon, with the highest chance of storms over the southwest Idaho mountains (60-90% chance) and lower chances across eastern OR (generally 20-50% chance), except a 60-80% chance over extreme SE Oregon near the NV/ID/OR borders. The showers and storms will come in two waves today, one with the main surface heating of the day, and then another set of showers and storms forming along the cold front late this evening. After the cold front moves through, expect about 10 degrees of cooling and much drier air, with humidities crashing to the 10s-20s percent on Wednesday.
258 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Key Message - Smoke remains over the FA, but its exact thickness and impact remains uncertain A weak cold front continues to sag southward toward the Canadian border.
801 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Aviation An upper low continues to rotate overhead this afternoon. Given the dry center of the low that is stationed over the Lower Peninsula, showers will be generally limited in coverage, with the greatest chance of development near and east of US-127. The upper low will move out of the area late tonight into early Wednesday.
Remaining showers are then focused toward the Ohio border as low pressure drifts eastward tonight. Convective elements within cold core of stacked low pressure will fill in late this afternoon into the evening and increase shower chances as coverage improves from 19z to 22z-00z and then holds on through 02z before dissipating with the loss of daytime heating. Shower coverage will abate late this evening into the overnight hours with just isolated light activity over the lakes as airmass is cold enough for some lake enhancement within cyclonic northwesterly flow on the backside of the slowly exiting low pressure with dry conditions persisting through Wednesday into Wednesday night before another strong upper trough drops sharply south into the region from Ontario.
The Keys are finally under the western flank of a seemingly permanent mid and upper level trough. Being on the descending branch of the trough, a long with drier air near the lower tropospheric ridge axis and a lingering residual Cuban shadow has resulted in virtually clear skies and a near complete absence of shower and thunderstorm activity across the forecast. Short Term Update - Surface ridging will continue dominate the flow in the Keys through the overnight period. Temperatures will struggle to fall out of the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid 70s.
816 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Periods of rain forecast through Tuesday night as low pressure moves across the Great Lakes region.
Cold front as just reach Southeast Oregon with isolated thunderstorms developing across Baker County and northern Harney County. Cold front will produce gusty winds with a few strong thunderstorms this evening through early Wednesday as it moves west to east. A cold front was moving southeast through eastern Oregon this evening and will move through southwest Idaho overnight.
1004 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Vertically-stacked low pressure continues to very slowly track eastward out of Lower Michigan late this evening. Another area of showers has developed along the far NW periphery of deeper moisture on the back side of the low and is now impacting portions of Eastern Lake Superior and Central Upper Michigan. Low temps will again drop into the low to mid 40s. 998mb low pressure is over eastern upper MI, while a closed 500mb low is drifting east from the Thumb. Overnight, this outermost rain band will try to return eastward along with the parent upper low.
920 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half of the week as our air will be moving in from the northwest. Bands of showers, supported by lobes of vorticity rotating around a Great Lakes upper low, will continue across the region through tonight. Temperatures will drop a bit below normal tonight, into the lower and mid 50s. The upper low will finally shift east into southern Quebec/New York. By Wednesday afternoon much of the convection will have shifted eastward across the ridges to the east.
600 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half of the week as our air will be moving in from the northwest. Bands of showers, supported by lobes of vorticity rotating around a Great Lakes upper low, will continue across the region through tonight. Temperatures will drop a bit below normal tonight, into the lower and mid 50s.
A very large, anomalous upper level low (ULL) continues to spin over the Great Lakes region this afternoon. With the presence of the ULL to the north and subtle high pressure to the south, this has resulted in a modest pressure gradient and breezy westerly to southwesterly winds across the region more typical of an April/May setup. Gusts so far today have topped out in the low 30mph range across the northern zones. With winds staying steady overnight, lows will be 'warmer' vs this morning, only dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s. Tomorrow is shaping up to be a more typical June-like day in terms of temperatures as the ULL slowly departs to the east and warmer temperatures advect in from the west/southwest.
Have adjusted down the highs from the NBM that has been running too warm to closer to the consensus RAW and short-term guidance. The mid to upper level ridge will remain over the southern plains. The low level flow will be from the south to southeast keeping a warm, moist airmass in place.
301 PM PDT Tue Jun 13 2023 An passing cold front is bringing breezy and gusty conditions tonight through Wednesday and more seasonal temperatures for the second half of the week before an incoming trough for the weekend.
824 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Unusually strong westerlies will maintain a very active weather pattern through much of the forecast period as a strong subtropical ridge remains anchored over TX while a deep upper low generally remains fixed over the northeast CONUS. While we have a good idea of the weather pattern that will impact us for a long duration, confidence in the near term forecast details is on the low side because of disagreement among NWP models with convective evolution. We continue to be impacted by zonal flow of an upper level low off the western coast.
Key Message - Smoke remains over the FA, but its exact thickness and impact remains uncertain A weak cold front continues to sag southward toward the Canadian border.
Therefore, mostly dry conditions expected into the remainder of tonight, with skies mostly clear to partly cloudy and lows in the low to mid 70s.
740 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half of the week as our air will be moving in from the northwest. Bands of showers, supported by lobes of vorticity rotating around a Great Lakes upper low, will continue across the region through tonight. Temperatures will drop a bit below normal tonight, into the lower and mid 50s Showers will linger over the area through Wednesday morning. The upper low will finally shift east into southern Quebec/New York. By Wednesday afternoon much of the convection will have shifted eastward across the ridges to the east.
702 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 998mb low pressure is over eastern upper MI, while a closed 500mb low is drifting east from the Thumb. Overnight, this outermost rain band will try to return eastward along with the parent upper low.
717 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Periods of rain and thunderstorms will continue for the next several days as temperatures trend warmer.
303 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023 This afternoon through Wednesday morning, lingering high pressure will continue to keep all chance of precipitation well away from northeast Montana. Wednesday afternoon, as the flow aloft of us turns more from the southwest, cloud cover will increase and a cold frontal system will approach our area from the west, being pushed by a upper- level closed low pressure system crossing the Canadian and Montana Rockies. Scattered and likely thunderstorms will become more widespread near and along the cold front as the afternoon hours turn to evening. For now, SPC has us outlooked for general thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon and evening, but I wouldn't be surprised if our area would soon be upgraded to marginally severe thunderstorms, given the higher levels of instability.
1030 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Periods of rain forecast through Tuesday night as low pressure moves across the Great Lakes region.
The frontal boundary is quite stationary along the base of the watch, separating the warm and muggy air south and the cooler, foggy and well rain soaked north.
230 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Water vapor channel satellite imagery shows deep closed low centered over Lake Erie early this morning, and moving eastward. This seems to be generally holding west of the channel of flow that's on the periphery of the departing closed low with more northeast-to-southwest trajectories. So, until the low moves further east, we shouldn't see substantial smoke/haze issues here.
Overnight satellite imagery shows the upper level low that brought some showers to western Wisconsin yesterday pushing farther east, with clouds diminishing over western WI leaving us with very little cloud cover across the entire MPX CWA. A weak but broad ridge will keep northerly winds aloft over the area, which will continue to funnel Canadian wildfire smoke across the area which will have some impacts in terms of both air quality and temperatures. The upper level smoke will also impact temperatures, with forecast highs in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon down from the low 90s that were forecast over the previous few days.
Its ridge axis will shift slightly to the east over the next 24-36 hours.
(Today and tonight) Expect another hot and dry day today with continued high pressure and zonal flow aloft over West Central Texas. High temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s in the Big Country this afternoon, with warmer temperatures to the south reaching into the mid 90s to near 103.
For this reason, the high PoPs and QPF of the NBM will be trimmed back a little.