Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
757 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Warning-level wind gusts continue immediately along the cold front progressing southeastward through the area. Current water vapor and upper air analysis shows upper low over north central MT. Westerly flow sits aloft our region, with mild ridging east of the forecast area. Temperatures sit at the low to mid 70s for most of the region this afternoon. Later tonight into Wednesday the upper trough and associated surface frontal boundary slides southeastward through our region.
Temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 40s/low 50s for locations north of I-10 and mainly in the low to mid 50s for locations south of I-10. With the slight bump (~2Â°C) in 850mb temperatures and moisture, high temperatures on Wednesday will reach the low 80s which is right around where we're su-pasta be this time of the year. You cannelloni imagine that there is a cold front associated with this system, and it'll be partially through Texas by Wednesday night. Ahead of the front, temperatures on Wednesday night will be about 6- 10Â°F warmer than tonight's as low temperatures get a bump up into the upper 50s/low 60s due to the rising moisture.
630 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Sunny skies will prevail across Deep South Texas for the rest of the afternoon with high temperatures reaching the lower 80s across most places. Overnight low temps are expected to stay in the mid 50s across most of Deep South with lower 60s across the Lower Valley and Lower Texas beaches. Overnight low temps are forecast to range from the lower to mid 60s across most of the local area with lows in the 70s across the Lower Valley and local beaches.
The low temperature forecast is on track, with temperature contrasts noted between warmer urban centers and colder rural areas due to radiational cooling setup. Low temperatures are forecast on the low side of guidance and incorporate some MOS as those tend to handle radiational cooling events a bit better. A gradual warming and moistening trend is expected to kick off tomorrow with highs warming into the low to mid 70s across much of the area.
616 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Key Messages: 1) A cold front will bring a a chance of showers (40-60%) across the area mainly on Wednesday evening.
306 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Cold frontal passage is underway across northeast Montana.
Mild and dry conditions will persist through the weekend as high pressure remains in control.
558 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Rain-free conditions and a warming trend will continue through Wednesday as an upper level ridge continues to build east into the region.
909 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 After seeing a few days of cloudy skies we are finally starting to see some clearing across the area as short wave ridging builds in.
635 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Mostly clear and cool conditions will prevail across central Illinois tonight with low temperatures dropping into the lower to middle 40s. Strong southerly winds will develop on Wednesday, which will push afternoon highs into the lower to middle 70s.
GOES 16 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows stratocumulus across western portions of the Florida Keys including the Lower Keys, western Hawk Channel, the offshore and nearshore Gulf waters and the western Straits of Florida. It continues to remain on the cool and comfortable side out there with temperatures in the lower 70s with dew points in the mid 50s.
The day started on the cool side with some patchy frost and even a reading near the freezing mark in the eastern Ozarks. The high pressure that brought this quiet weather was moving to the south and east today. As an upper trough/low, begins to move into the northern plains, the surface pressure gradient will begin to tighten allowing surface winds to become gusty by Wednesday morning. The upper low will then continue moving to the southeast towards the southern Great Lakes region through the day Wednesday. The southerly surface winds and more sun will allow afternoon highs to climb into the lower to middle 70s. The upper level will drag a cold front through the Ozarks region Wednesday evening into the overnight hours.
645 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) High pressure will be over the area through the short term with dry weather expected. This will begin to advect moisture and warmer air back into the area. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, a few degrees below normal for this time of year, but a few degrees warmer than the high expected today.
1102 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Update High pressure is sliding away to the east tonight allowing for a southerly return flow to set up. The ridge axis moves overhead Wednesday morning, highs during the day in the low 60s looks likely with some along Lake Michigan potentially getting into the mid 60s thanks to southerly winds and warm air advection. As we head into Wednesday night a trough approaches from the west bringing with it positive vorticity advection, 850-700mb warm air advection, and precipitable water values around and inch.
1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) An weak upper-level ridging will remain in place across the area through Wednesday, with light southerly flow persisting at the surface through Wednesday morning. Given the sunny conditions today and continued southerly flow into tonight, we should see slightly warmer overnight lows ranging from the lower 40 to lower 50s. There is a chance for some breezier conditions to mix down overnight and into Wednesday morning as a very weak upper-level disturbance tracks through the area ahead of a weak cold front that passes through West Central Texas later on Wednesday.
As far as temperatures today expect to see a few degrees warmer than yesterday with most reaching the low 70s.
1201 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) High pressure ridge axis is roughly from KMFE to KRKP, out over the Gulf to KHUM. As the High continues to move to the east tonight, the winds will gradually shift east and continue to veer to the south by Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be a bit warmer tonight, Wednesday, and Wednesday night as the south to southeast flow continues, to bring in a warmer air mass.
Rain showers to the east of the upper low over the RRV and moving north, while a band of rain is on the west/northwest side moving south in central ND from Minot to near Bismarck. Cooler today due to more clouds and a north wind but still highs in the 50s, mostly mid-upr 50s, which is still a bit above normal.
326 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 * Key Messages: * A weak cold front associated with a low to the northeast of the area will move through the region this morning. As the low continues to move to the southeast, an isolated, sprinkle cannot be entirely ruled out for the eastern part of the area.
High temperatures will warm into the lower to middle 70s thanks to the low-level WAA.
Dry weather and warmer temperatures are expected today with highs in the low to mid 70s. Scattered showers will move across mainly northern and western section of the Mid-South tonight as a cold front moves into northwest Arkansas.
346 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Cold front continues to move through the area bringing scattered rain chances and breezy to windy conditions. Despite the surface cold front and CAA, temps aloft remain warm, keeping our temps fairly stable overnight. Main low pressure spinning this morning along the ND/SD border continues to move southeast through the day, with moisture and cloud cover advecting in later today.
252 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are sunny area- wide as the area awaits the arrival of a cold front later tonight. The full sun, combined with southwesterly flow 10-20 mph, is allowing for above normal temperatures, which as of 100 PM MDT are mainly in the lower to mid 80s. Going into tonight, the approach of a cold front will allow for a wind shift and increased gusts. This will coincide with an upper low passing north of the region.
Upper level ridging and southerly low level flow will allow temperatures to climb nicely today into the mid 60s to lower 70s.
144 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Mid level analysis shows the area of low pressure exiting the state this morning. A weak wave of energy associated with the low is currently bringing light showers in far eastern MT that will diminish through the morning as drier air sets in. With ridging continuing to build in, conditions will be warm and dry.
157 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Look for dry weather again today with highs in the lower to middle 60s.
Winds could get a little gusty tonight and tomorrow with the passage of the low, but not expecting anything near advisory criteria. The region for the higher rainfall totals will be heavily tied to the location of the pivot point with this system once we see the shift occur. The upper flow pattern will be dominated by large scale ridging.
1136 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) Fairly benign weather expected across the local area through mid week as upper level through already east of the CWA continues moving east and weak ridge/zonal flow passes across the northern Gulf Coast.
Warning-level wind gusts continue immediately along the cold front progressing southeastward through the area. Current water vapor and upper air analysis shows upper low over north central MT. Westerly flow sits aloft our region, with mild ridging east of the forecast area. Temperatures sit at the low to mid 70s for most of the region this afternoon. Later tonight into Wednesday the upper trough and associated surface frontal boundary slides southeastward through our region.
1055 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Mostly clear and cool conditions will prevail across central Illinois tonight with low temperatures dropping into the lower to middle 40s. Strong southerly winds will develop on Wednesday, which will push afternoon highs into the lower to middle 70s.
313 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Key Messages: - Blustery and cooler today with scattered showers An upper low/trof quite evident over ND this morning will continue to truck southeast today over the forecast area. Meanwhile, a sfc cold front will push east into MN this morning.
1047 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Key Messages: 1) A cold front will bring a a chance of showers (40-60%) across the area mainly on Wednesday evening.
A strong ridge is building over the region today through the end of the week.
The cold front is moving into northeast NE early this morning, and will sweep through the forecast area shortly after daybreak. And then in the wake of the cold front, there could be additional spotty showers in northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon, that lingers into western IA yet this evening, with a hundredth or two of inch possible with that activity. Despite the cold front, high temperatures today reach the mid 60s to lower 70s.
07Z water vapor showed a closed upper low digging southeast through the Dakotas. Surface ridging along the TX gulf coast had weakened, but profiler data across OK and west TX showed 850MB winds from the southwest. This this should limit afternoon highs to the lower 70s in spite of some insolation late in the day.
1219 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Sunny skies will prevail across Deep South Texas for the rest of the afternoon with high temperatures reaching the lower 80s across most places. Overnight low temps are expected to stay in the mid 50s across most of Deep South with lower 60s across the Lower Valley and Lower Texas beaches. Overnight low temps are forecast to range from the lower to mid 60s across most of the local area with lows in the 70s across the Lower Valley and local beaches.
214 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Key Messages: - Short period of strong winds with gusts up to 60 mph this morning as system exits region - Above average temperatures and breezy conditions to end the work week Surface analysis depicts low pressure centered over northeastern North Dakota with midlevel water vapor imagery depicting the upper low centered over western North Dakota. Relatively cooler air will filter into the region today with near average highs in the 60s. Upper ridge builds over the western US and puts us under northwesterly flow. Warmer air with above average temperatures will return once more to end the week.
Light winds under this high, clear skies, and air temperatures nearing dewpoint readings was becoming favorable for the development of fog over the next few hours. Nice autumn weather is forecast, with high temperatures warming into the lower 70s and S-SW winds of 5-10 mph.
(Today and tonight) Southerly winds will continue through Wednesday morning, as a weak cold front continues to approach northwestern Oklahoma, with a wind shift to the west currently observed in portions of the Oklahoma panhandle. The upper level trough, moving through the Midwest US, will bring this cold front into Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas through Wednesday afternoon before gradually slowing down after clearing most of the region except southeastern Oklahoma.
1050 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) A return of southerly surface winds will aid in warmer overnight lows this evening. Much of the area will only get down into the low 50s by sunrise. A weak cold front will move in tomorrow morning and stall across central Oklahoma.
(Today) Southerly winds will be on the increase today as the surface pressure gradient strengthens ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Winds should subside by sunset as the cold front begins to progress into the CWA, into locations north of the I-44 corridor by late in the afternoon or early in the evening.
Seeing some high clouds over the area this evening which are associated with a warm front moving in from the coast.
Much of this QG forcing will have exited to the east by late afternoon, but eventually more saturation will occur in the vicinity of the upper low core with spiraling precip and lower clouds arriving into northwest IA by late afternoon. With steepening low level lapse rates and the upper low aloft as well, a few brief, weak funnel clouds can't be ruled out north before diurnal heating fades.
This should reach the metro an hour or two after midnight, and should keep tomorrow's highs a bit cooler than today. This should reach the metro an hour or two after midnight, and should keep tomorrow's highs a bit cooler than today. Key messages: 1) Modestly cooler Wednesday. Upper trough passes mostly to the northeast of the region with a dry cold front moving across the eastern plains and I25 corridor tonight. Cooler air mass will be over the eastern plains and I25 corridor.
1241 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 After seeing a few days of cloudy skies we are finally starting to see some clearing across the area as short wave ridging builds in.
Discussion: Short wave ridging aloft will build across the area today then shift to our east as an upper trough approaches from the west.
308 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Today and tonight the region will be between high pressure over the East Coast and low pressure crossing the upper Midwest with a cold front reaching down to Texas. This will put us in a regime of SSW breezes and warmer temperatures under partly cloudy skies. With thickening mid/upper clouds tonight and continued WAA, temperatures will only drop into the low and mid 50s for most.
WV imagery shows the ridge building back in from the south with only some higher cirrus spilling over out of western Canada associated with a deep upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska.
219 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 High pressure will build into eastern Montana today with diminishing winds. Upper ridge will build into Montana from the west today. The ridge will remain over the area into the weekend with warm and dry weather.
At the surface, west central Texas will be right between high pressure over the Gulf and and cold front approaching from the northwest. Given the warmer airmass and plenty of mechanical mixing, high temperatures should reach the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. Under yet another night of clear skies, low temperatures should fall to the low to mid 50s, with some low-lying areas dipping into the 40s.
It has been a quiet, cooler night across the Florida Keys forecast area. At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure centered over the Appalachians is maintaining elevated breezes this morning. Temperatures will creep up to near 80 degrees in most island communities, with dew points climbing into the lower 60s throughout the day.
632 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 High pressure remains over the area through Thursday.
643 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Moderating temperatures expected into Thursday as high pressure moves over and east of the region.
A few readings in the lower 90s are even possible across the western zones. Most locations will begin today in the upper 40s and 50s, with Thursday morning's lows an additional 5-10 degrees warmer. In fact, temperatures behind this boundary on Thursday afternoon will be a couple degrees warmer than today's as the very dry airmass continues to easily modify and warm with daytime heating. Daytime highs will peak the mid-upper 80s with several locations reaching the lower 90s; in other words 10-15 deg above normal for mid October. These unseasonably warm temperatures will persist into the weekend due to both surface and upper ridging in place.
northwest winds gusting in the 30 to 40 mph range are expected today in wake of this mornings cold frontal passage. the forecast area remains under northwest flow aloft, in between low pressure east of the Mississippi and an upper level ridge centered over New Mexico.
After AM lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s, we'll warm quickly under sunny skies with highs in the low to mid 80s for most locations. Some gulf moisture will push into the Coastal Plains overnight, and warmer low temperatures are forecast for Thursday morning. Meanwhile, the aforementioned ND sfc/upper low will move to the Great Lakes, and it's attendant cold front will push into our region from the north by the mid-morning hours on Thursday. In fact, high temperatures during the daytime will actually be warmer than today, reaching the mid to upper 80s.
1000 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 High pressure remains over the area through Thursday.
556 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 (Today through Thursday) A potent low pressure system works into the Great Lakes and deepens the mid level trough across the eastern CONUS into late this week. This strengthens the mid-level ridge of high pressure in control across Texas and brings additional dry air into Thursday. Expect a slightly less cooler, but still comfortable night, with highs on Thursday across the CWA topping 90 degrees in most locations.
High level clouds will increase this afternoon as an upper low amplifies over Minnesota/Wisconsin today. Today and tonight the region will be between high pressure over the East Coast and low pressure crossing the upper Midwest with a cold front reaching down to Texas. This will put us in a regime of SSW breezes and warmer temperatures under partly cloudy skies. With thickening mid/upper clouds tonight and continued WAA, temperatures will only drop into the low and mid 50s for most.
* Key Messages: * A weak cold front associated with a low to the northeast of the area will move through the region this morning. As the low continues to move to the southeast, an isolated, sprinkle cannot be entirely ruled out for the eastern part of the area.
607 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 (Today through Thursday) Southerly flow will continue through the short term period, bringing warmer air into the area. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s today will increase Thursday into the mid to upper 80s.
Continued high pressure will help keep temperatures well-above normal through the remainder of this week.
Most areas are expected to warm into the low-80s which is pretty normal for this time of year. Tonight will be seasonably mild with lows generally in the low/mid-60s (upper-50s northern counties, near 70F at the coast).
The associated cold front is also evident on radar as it moves into northwest Iowa and southeastern Nebraska. Ahead of the front or prefrontal trough, model soundings and guidance show gusty southerly winds developing this morning with sustained speeds of 15 to 25 MPH and a few gusts up to 35 MPH possible. High temperatures for today are forecast to range from the mid 60s along the US Highway 20 corridor to to the lower 70s in far southeast Iowa and west central Illinois. The best chances of rain showers are post frontal when the lower clouds move into the area and bater saturation occurs along with better lift.
Winds should be generally light today and into tonight at less than 5mph becoming light and variable at times thanks to the ongoing high pressure. A few of our highest elevations in NE Georgia could see a few obs around 40, but we're expecting conditions to be a little warmer as winds become more SSW and moisture returns to the area. Some light gusty winds up to 15 mph are possible late Thursday across the NW as a trough pushes into the area.
An upper level ridge continues to move eastward over northern California and southern Oregon. The ridge will bring elevated temperatures through the rest of the week, with highs each day expected to be 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages.
626 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 (Today) Southerly winds will be on the increase today as the surface pressure gradient strengthens ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Winds should subside by sunset as the cold front begins to progress into the CWA, into locations north of the I-44 corridor by late in the afternoon or early in the evening.
526 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 * A return of sunshine and milder temperatures today * Mild again on Thursday, but with increasing clouds and a potential for rain late as a cold front approaches Clearing is finally making its way northeast across the forecast area early this morning. Although, high clouds will try to stream through the ridge in advance of the next system. The ridging moves away to the east tonight, and a large, sharp and deepening upper level trough will descend southeast over the eastern CONUS. Its associated cold front will enter the Ohio Valley from the west late Thursday. Light winds and a lack of substantial clouds will then present good conditions for cooling this evening, with warm air advection further promoting ridge/valley differences.
421 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) A return of southerly surface winds will aid in warmer overnight lows this evening. Much of the area will only get down into the low 50s by sunrise. A weak cold front will move in tomorrow morning and stall across central Oklahoma.
338 AM PDT Wed Oct 18 2023 High pressure aloft to the north will bring above average high temperatures for inland areas through Thursday, as much as 15 to locally 20 degrees above average for the inland valleys.
618 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 (Today and tonight) Weak ridging builds into the area today briefly before a longwave trough approaches the Mississippi River by daybreak Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will slide off to our east over the Mid- Atlantic. Thus, the low temperatures range from the upper 40s across much of the area with low to mid-50s in the Panhandle.
Low-level southerly flow will establish itself as a trough approaches from the west, but moisture recovery today will be disrupted by daytime mixing under clear skies.
- Outside of a few remnant showers, the rest of the period should trend drier and warmer. Given the continued slow-down of the low's path, we have kept the greatest PoPs in the northern portion of the CWA in the morning.
High pressure over the eastern U. will drift east out into the Atlantic Ocean Thursday, but continue to ridge southwestward across the region with the fair dry weather persisting.
(Today and tonight) Weak ridging builds into the area today briefly before a longwave trough approaches the Mississippi River by daybreak Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will slide off to our east over the Mid- Atlantic. Thus, the low temperatures range from the upper 40s across much of the area with low to mid-50s in the Panhandle.