Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper low stuck under ridging over the Great Lakes has two lobes this morning, one over northern Mississippi and one along the South Carolina coast. Another upper trough was over the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West. At the surface, high pressure was centered over Michigan with low pressure along the South Carolina coast. Early morning temperatures are mainly in the 60s, but a few areas with winds off of warmer water, or with clouds, are closer to 70.
A deeper Atlantic moisture plume will gradually overspread our region as it rotates NW around the parent upper low. 3" are expected to max out over our region later this morning through the daylight hours, before the upper low begins its slow eastward progression by tonight. Outside of the rain chances, we will see cool and dreary day over much of the CWA as heavy cloud cover, sporadic precipitation, and a steady easterly flow keep temperatures confined to the low and mid 60s east of I-65. Lingering light rain may hang around a bit in our east heading into tonight, but overall things will be steadily drying up as the upper low slowly pushes east.
This will not last though as moisture around the area and a trough to the west will bring another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The culprit for the seeming endless showers and storms, that pesky upper level low, is starting to shift southward toward the California coast.
A disturbance will lift to the northeast through the day as an upper ridge continues to move off the the east.
07Z water vapor imagery continued to show an upper trough over the western U. Surface obs showed high pressure weakening over the central plains with southerly low level flow stretching from the gulf into the central plains. Some increase in cloud cover may act to keep temps a degree or two cooler this afternoon. But in general highs should again be in the lower to middle 80s. Lows Monday morning look to be a little more mild with increased low level moisture and are forecast to be in the lower 60s.
321 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 High pressure will bring dry, warm and mostly sunny weather areawide through at least mid week. The Rex Block pattern remains firmly in place over central NY and northeast PA, as a mid/upper level low spins over the Southeast.
(Today) Mostly clear skies early this morning will continue through midday as the weak trough axis at the surface responsible for yesterday's convection shifts eastward. Our main feature to watch today will be a weak non-tropical low pressure system off the Carolinas coast. The system will gradually phase with a cut off upper level low centered over the TN Valley today.
Morning lows near freezing are on track for many portions of the high country, with 50s expected in the Verde Valley. Most locations will see southwest winds at 5 to 15 mph gusting to 25 mph but east of the trough axis, primarily along and southwest of a line from Heber to Window Rock, sustained afternoon winds of 15 to 25 mph with a few gusts to 35 mph are forecast.
1145 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) Water vapor imagery shows a Rex block pattern east of the state; featuring a mid to upper level cutoff low positioned over the Lower Tennessee Valley/Southern Plains with a ridge positioned over the Great Lakes region.
(Tonight through Sunday) The next low pressure system will arrive from the Pacific Northwest late tonight and Sunday, increasing onshore winds and cooling causing patchy light measurable drizzle on the coast and along favorable inland terrain where orographics are enhanced. Clearing may be slow going Sunday with continuing onshore winds and with the upper level low over the cwa.
11 (Tonight through Monday night) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and ridging swwd across the forecast area, while a trof is noted from the Tennessee Valley through the ArkLaMiss. Water vapor imagery shows the area continuing in a nwrly flow aloft between low pressure over the sern CONUS and ridging remaining in place from Mexico into the srn Plains. The combo of the sfc trof a cutoff low over the ArkLaMiss has led to scattered convection in that area dropping swd toward e-cntl LA. while some diurnal convection has popped up over the lower Atchafalaya area past couple of hours. Sunday will see the mid-level ridge begin breaking down as the mid-South cutoff absorbs the system moving into the Carolinas while drifting into the lower Mississippi Valley.
338 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 High pressure will continue to provide the North Country with warm and dry weather through most of the upcoming week. Temperatures will be well into the 80s today, with slightly cooler readings on Monday, before much above normal values return for mid to late week.
Northeast winds and a lake breeze will keep areas near Lake Michigan cooler, both today and on Monday. High level cloud cover may thin some on Monday, perhaps still partly cloudy with highs a few degrees warmer, likely lower 80s away from the lake, with perhaps a few mid 80s possible. Rex block currently across the Great Lakes region is forecast to slowly drift east and weaken through mid-week, though weak upper ridging is progged to redevelop across the Mississippi Valley and into the eastern Canadian prairies by the weekend.
114 AM MDT Sun May 28 2023 Rex block over the eastern CONUS will continue to offer unsettled conds over the region today as the mean upper trough over the western US ejects subtle impulses in SW flow. Another impulse will time over the FA Monday as diurnal heating allows for connection on the higher terrain, esp the northern BH where hires models prog TS's by early afternoon.
However, we should see some gradual easterly movement of the ridge today and into the first part of the upcoming week.
The upper low over northeast Mississippi early this morning will move eastward into the Carolinas by this evening.
Partly sunny and dry conditions are expected with high temperatures climbing into the lower to middle 80s across all of central and southeast Illinois by Monday. Rex Block characterized by prominent upper ridging over the Great Lakes and troughing over the Tennessee River Valley will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. Deep-layer moisture will continue to pivot northwestward around the trough from the Carolina coast, resulting in widespread showers/thunder across the Appalachians. Meanwhile further west where sunshine will be more prevalent, highs will reach the lower to middle 80s in the Illinois River Valley.
251 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 High pressure will remain firmly in place across the Great Lakes through the rest of the long holiday weekend. with daytime highs reaching the lower to mid 80s both today and Monday. Deep layer-ridging will dominate our weather through this period and well beyond. with just some thin high cirrus attendant to the southeastern US closed low working across western New York today into this evening. and then some spotty mid and high clouds pushing across the North Country tonight as a weak backdoor cold front drops across eastern New York and New England. with most locations seeing readings peak in the lower to mid 80s. The only exceptions to this will be across the highest terrain.
Hudson Bay high pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes, and will continue to bring dry weather through the rest of the Memorial Day weekend. Highs will be in the lower 80s today, and lower to middle 80s on Memorial Day. Cooler readings in the upper 60s to middle 70s will be found near Lake Michigan, due to E-SE winds.
Generally, there will still be stable air influencing the area through short term forecast as a result of the low stalling over the eastern US coast.
While temperatures Monday afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than the previous afternoon, a much drier afternoon is expected.
Warmer temperatures will occur across the area this coming week. Look for highs in the low to mid 80s with partly cloudy skies. An upper level ridge will build over the region this week bringing warmer conditions to the area as highs warm into the middle to upper 80s each afternoon.
414 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 A large upper level low will pass south of the area through Monday. High pressure will then become prevalent through the rest of the week. Upper low near the Mississippi-Alabama border will push into northern Georgia today. Upper low will track to the Carolina coast during the period. Highs will once again be warmer in northern counties where it will get into the 80s while further south will be limited to the mid to upper 70s. On Monday evening, a gradually-broadening closed upper high will extend across the Great Lakes and into New York. An upper low will still be in place to its south, slowly moving eastward across the Carolinas.
1138 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Complex blocking pattern aloft continues across much of the conus with Kansas situated in a virtual col between the Rex type block over the eastern conus (high over the Great Lakes and a couple of lows over the Southeast, then ridge axis over the southern high Plains and mean trof over the West into the Rockies. The southern extent of this feature/lift will shift eastward also helping to advect the higher precipitable water(PWAT)/instability axis over the high Plains into central Kansas.
149 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 An area of low pressure will approach the South Carolina and Georgia coast tonight. The low is forecast to move onshore north of the Santee River late tonight or early Sunday morning, drifting slowly northward through Memorial Day. Given temperatures beginning the day in the 50s and ongoing CAA, high temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 60s across inland SC to the low to mid 70s along the coast and SE GA.
(Today through Monday Night ) Strong high pressure will drift from the Great Lakes toward New England the next couple of days, but will continue to bring mostly dry conditions/little in the way of wind to Arkansas. On the back side of the high, dewpoints will be somewhat higher today/Monday in the southern Plains, with readings getting into the lower/mid 60s. Troughing exists over the west and east coasts, with ridging over the middle of the country.
The mid to upper level flow was weak due a ridge axis. Highs today will be mainly in the lower 80s, well below normal for this time of year.
Today: Water vapor/00Z synoptic analysis indicates upper low right over the MS/AL state line. As this trough ejects to the east, right entrance region will persist over the region. Mostly sunny skies & seasonable highs in the low to mid 80s are expected. High pressure will keep the region dry after midnight & slightly below seasonable lows in the mid 50s northeast to low 60s elsewhere.
(Sunday through Monday) Most of the short-term can be covered with the phrase, "Same old, same old" as both surface and upper-level ridging remain over the region. Beginning today, afternoon high temperatures should remain in the upper-80s, sans a few locations in our southern zones that could sneak into the low-90s. Temperatures will then slightly warm into tonight, once again influenced by the shifting ridge. Given this increased cloud cover, and the chance for rain, look for temperatures to be slightly cooler west, where less sun anticipated.
(Today) Another seasonably warm and mostly dry day is in store across the region today as high pressures remains settled over much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Thus, although guidance generally is a few degrees warmer than last night, still pulled down temperatures for the cooler spots in the area such as Washington Island and portions of the northwoods.
The upper level low to the southeast is pulling moisture from the Atlantic resulting in upper level clouds across the area. As of 03z, temperatures are around 4 degrees warmer and dew points are 5 to 10 degrees higher compared to yesterday at this time. Thus overnight lows will be warmer than last night and this morning. Low temperatures are anticipated to be in the low to mid 50s across the area. MMG/Pfahler Current water vapor imagery shows an amplified ridge over much of the eastern portion of the U. At the surface, observations show an area of high pressure centered northeast of the CWA, causing surface flow to be light and generally out of the east.
Northeast winds and a lake breeze will keep areas near Lake Michigan cooler, both today and on Monday. High level cloud cover may thin some on Monday, perhaps still partly cloudy with highs a few degrees warmer, likely lower 80s away from the lake, with perhaps a few mid 80s possible. cms In the wake of a Rex block drifting eastward toward the east coast early in the week, mid-level ridging will amplify across the central CONUS into central Canada through the remainder of the week.
Enjoy the beautiful day that we have in store for us! Blocking pattern remains, holding high pressure over the Great Lakes Region. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 80s through the day, with nighttime temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Key Messages: 1) Unseasonably warm and dry weather continues, as high pressure dominates the region. Enjoy the remainder of your extended holiday weekend, folks! High pressure will slowly push east this week, as the Rex Block slowly breaks down.
Despite the northerly flow, high temperatures across South Florida will remain HOT, reaching the lower 90s across much of the interior and southwest, and the upper 80s along the East Coast. Overnight temperatures will remain warm, with lows in the low to mid 70s throughout South FL.
112 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023 A large high pressure to the east keeps upper level easterly flow over the region. Low to midlevel flow continues out of the southeast and south respectively gradually advecting warmer air into the area. Global hemispheric pattern guidance suggests this occurring; however, instead of booting the entire block, it bumps the southern low pressure out of the way; after which, the new system gets jammed up under the high creating another block.
This increase in cloud cover will be a result of moisture flowing in on the north side of the aforementioned mid-upper level low. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s to around 80, likely cooler from the Pennyrile up into southwest IN due to the cloud cover. As the aforementioned upper low continues to shift away from the area, expect flattening flow to weak upper ridging to build across much of the central CONUS.
119 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 Aviation Vis and IR loops continue to show a feed of high level cloudiness moving northwest from the southeast US around the flow of an upper low over the Deep South. After that, the upper low moves off the southeast US coast and the ridge over the Great Lakes drifts eastward. Lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer than last night. As noted previously, a Rex block (in this particular case, an upper high over Great Lakes and upper low over southeastern United States) will gradually evolve into more of a typical upper ridge pattern over the Great Lakes with continued weak flow aloft.
There's hardly a cloud in the sky this afternoon across the Northland and across most of the Great Lakes region as an Omega block with vertically stacked high pressure continues to result in plenty of widespread subsidence. This dry pattern is expected to persist through Memorial Day as high pressure is expected to remain nearly stationary over the Great Lakes. The possibility for a late-week backdoor cold front can't be ruled out, but not all models are in agreement. High pressure over the Great Lakes will result in generally light and variable winds for the next 48 hours. As high pressure moves slowly east on Monday, winds may become slightly stronger from the northeast with gusts up to 10 to 15 knots.
For Monday, H5 ridging slides eastward, allowing higher dew points to work into the area.
As freezing levels are low with cooler temperatures aloft there will be potential for some storms to be strong with main threats being high winds, hail and heavy localized downpours of up to 2in.
The Rex blocking pattern continues over the eastern half of CONUS today leading to another warm and dry day across the region.
1152 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023 Mainly dry weather is expected for much of the area through the holiday weekend with high pressure over the Great Lakes region. The exception will be for areas near and south of Interstate 70, where low pressure to our south will return rain chances Sunday and Monday.
Cooler temps will continue near the lake under onshore winds.
1203 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023 While high pressure continues to reside over the Great Lakes, upper- level moisture has been gradually returning this afternoon leading to the cirrus clouds overhead. Furthermore, the clouds will do little to impact our temperatures on Sunday with highs expected to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s for inland locations, though the persistent easterly winds will keep values along the lake front in the low to mid-60s. Overnight lows will also remain mild with values in the low to mid-50s expected tonight and Sunday night. Yack In the wake of a Rex block drifting eastward toward the east coast early in the week, mid-level ridging will amplify across the central CONUS into central Canada through the remainder of the week.
1142 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 (The rest of tonight) This evening far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas remained on the far western periphery of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region.
141 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 High pressure and dry conditions have continued dominating the Upper Great Lakes overnight.
Water Vapor continues to show widespread mid-level air from the dry conveyor belt on the south side of the coastal low as the occlusion and vertically stacking of the low is well underway. At the surface, the closed low was located just south of Myrtle Beach, SC. Fragments of the CAD can still be seen this morning across western NC and GA with widespread dewpoints in the lower 50s and even a light northeast wind across the region. The lack of deep moisture, or collision and coalescence, does support drizzle, however the low level WAA has started to slow and will eventually turn to weak CAA helping to finally turn off all drizzle. Tonight: Closed cold upper level low will further deepen and become centered over South Carolina by morning, while the coastal low treks up through eastern North Carolina.
Southwesterly flow aloft will transition to more quasi-zonal flow as troughing persists across Western CONUS.
509 AM MDT Sun May 28 2023 Rex block over the eastern CONUS will continue to offer unsettled conds over the region today as the mean upper trough over the western US ejects subtle impulses in SW flow. Another impulse will time over the FA Monday as diurnal heating allows for connection on the higher terrain, esp the northern BH where hires models prog TS's by early afternoon.
(Today and tonight) A mid/upper level cut-off low pressure system currently off of the northern California coast will continue to drop southward during the next 24 hours.
Showers in our northern mountains this morning were associated with an upper low just north of Valley County, low moving slowly east. Weak development was also occurring in sw Harney County, closest to an upper low in northern California, that low moving slowly south. Enhanced clouds in central and ne NV were under a weak upper ridge moving northward toward Twin Falls and Owyhee Counties. With both upper lows moving away from our CWA temperatures will trend slightly higher through Monday.
625 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) Strong high pressure will drift from the Great Lakes toward New England the next couple of days, but will continue to bring mostly dry conditions/little in the way of wind to Arkansas. On the back side of the high, dewpoints will be somewhat higher today/Monday in the southern Plains, with readings getting into the lower/mid 60s. Troughing exists over the west and east coasts, with ridging over the middle of the country.
710 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 Low pressure continues to churn just to the northeast of the region this morning, with low clouds and some patchy drizzle persisting over far southeastern GA and towards Nassau and northern Duval Counties. Clearer skies will gradually make their way northeastward throughout today and into tonight as the low slowly pulls away. High temps will be overall a bit below average, though this will be highly dependent on how fast the low, dense clouds move out of northeastern areas.
For the rest of the today, the flow aloft will become more westerly as a weak sfc lee trough remains along the I-25 Corridor. At this time, it appears storms may develop over the Cheyenne Ridge and then move ESE across portions of the nern plains late this aftn and evening.
With a low pressure system and stationary front still nearby, expect isolated showers and thunderstorms focused near the North Dakota border and other high terrain areas.
(Rest of Today) Morning satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over the Tennessee Valley as northwest flow aloft continues to keep a relatively dry and cooler airmass in place. A cutoff low will continue to slowly track east through the Carolinas today, while at the sfc a low pressure system tracks north toward the SC/NC coast.
508 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 A Rex block persists over the eastern CONUS, with high pressure at all levels over the Great Lakes, and mid/upper level low pressure over the southern Appalachians early this morning. The mild/moist air moving westward is being lifted over a cooler inland air mass, and then progressing around the mid/upper level low into the JKL forecast area.
558 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023 (Sunday through Monday) Most of the short-term can be covered with the phrase, "Same old, same old" as both surface and upper-level ridging remain over the region. Beginning today, afternoon high temperatures should remain in the upper-80s, sans a few locations in our southern zones that could sneak into the low-90s. Temperatures will then slightly warm into tonight, once again influenced by the shifting ridge. Given this increased cloud cover, and the chance for rain, look for temperatures to be slightly cooler west, where less sun anticipated.
257 AM PDT Sun May 28 2023 A persistent trough over the West, and onshore flow, will keep a deep marine layer in place this week.
641 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 Low pressure will move northward along the South Carolina coast this morning, then inland near the North Carolina border today. The low will linger over central NC as it dissipates through Monday. Periods of rain/showers are expected to continue today as a coastal low located just off the coast of SC this morning is expected to lift northward and move inland near the NC/SC boarder and begin to weaken, while and an associated mid/upper level low wobbles eastward across the Deep South into the Southern Appalachians today. The main warm front is expected to remain to the west of the area. However, we may see up to 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE develop later today and this evening as the mid/upper low approaches, yielding a slight chance for some storms, although severe weather is not expected.
1034 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 A large upper level low will pass south of the area through Monday. High pressure will then become prevalent through the rest of the week. An upper level low will circulate over the eastern Tennessee Valley today. Upper low will track to the Carolina coast during the period. Highs will once again be warmer in northern counties where it will get into the 80s while further south will be limited to the mid to upper 70s. On Monday evening, a gradually-broadening closed upper high will extend across the Great Lakes and into New York. An upper low will still be in place to its south, slowly moving eastward across the Carolinas.