Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
IR currently shows mainly clear skies over much of the high plains with northwest flow aloft extending from the Rockies. With some downslope nature to the winds, temperatures will push into the 50s to low 60s north to south cooler north where there is still some snow still on the ground. Afternoon highs Monday afternoon in the upper 50s to mid 60s a bit warmer due to the southerly flow.
326 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2023 A weak disturbance bringing clouds this evening will move offshore overnight in favor of high pressure.
/16/ (Sunday through Monday) Mostly quiet weather is expected over the next 36 hours, as the region remains sandwiched between ridging over the Gulf, and a longwave trough over Baja California. As this low to our west begins to pivot south deeper into Mexico, the pressure gradient over the region will begin to tighten as well.
Southwest flow aloft will persist across the area the next 24 hours, ahead of a closed upper low offshore of the Baja Peninsula. Temperatures will be warmer tonight, with lows ranging from the mid and upper 40s south, to the lower and middle 50s across the Big Country.
Temperatures this afternoon rose into the mid 80s portions of the Lower and Middle Keys, while holding in the lower 80s elsewhere. This feature is in the process of fracturing as the parent high continues to slide east across the North Atlantic, leaving behind an area of high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico.
Will need to keep an eye on fire wx conditions across prats of northeast OK as there has been indications in the high-res guidance that lower dew points will be advected eastward this afternoon to drop RH to around 25%. For the time being expect the high clouds to keep conditions from becoming near critical.
This will help push a weak cold front into northern parts of Oklahoma.
Lacy (Monday through Sunday) A sustained flow of high level subtropical moisture/cloud won't be disrupted until the upper low west of the Baja ejects into the Plains later in the week.
Ridging is anchored over the area and has no plans on leaving over the next 7 days. Ridging will remain in control of the area through the week. We will see quiet weather for the rest of the work as ridging remains overnight.
1203 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper low continues to churn off the southern California coast leaving us in a realm of west/southwesterly upper level flow out ahead of it.
Snow will continue moving eastwards through the afternoon and evening, with another round on the backside tonight as the low passes through.
1105 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2023 A broad upper-level trough covers the CONUS, with its axis starting to move through the northern plains. At the surface, a cold front is draped west to east across ND, which will slowly push into NW SD this morning. As cooler air sinks into our CWA today, highs will decrease slightly (mid 30s to mid 40s) and lapse rates will increase. Expecting amounts to reach 1 to 4 inches by Monday evening, with higher amounts possible over the highest elevations.
401 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2023 A weak disturbance bringing clouds this evening will move offshore overnight in favor of high pressure.
455 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 Winds have become breezy today as low pressure moves across Northern Ontario. A cold front stretches southwestward from this system to Kansas City.
Monday will see a mid to upper trough dig in across E Canada while 590 dam ridge lingers over the Gulf of Mexico.
No accumulation is expected outside of few tenths in the higher Black Hills with activity being diurnally driven. Further south, warm push will allow many locations to rise into the 40s/lower 50s into west central SD Tues before the cold front settles into the region later in the day. Confidence is growing with the final and deepest/strongest of this series of upper troughs. The highest amounts will likely occur toward central SD where GOMEX moisture will begin to wrap into the system.
An impulse moving through a broad upper level longwave trough over the CONUS is supporting a cold front approaching us from the Midwest. Moisture will finally increase as the cold front approaches.
419 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2023 An impulse moving through a broad upper level longwave trough over the CONUS is supporting a cold front approaching us from the Midwest. Moisture will finally increase as the cold front approaches.
823 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2023 High pressure will continue across the CWA overnight. A zonal flow pattern will persist through the short term with high pressure at the surface and southwesterly surface flow.
A zonal flow pattern will persist through the short term with high pressure at the surface and southwesterly surface flow.
These systems will bring periods of strong winds along with valley rain and mountain snow and cooler temperatures.
Except for a slight chance of mountain snow showers in Elko County on Monday morning, fair weather with warmer temperatures continues through President's Day.
Isolated shower activity has been observed across northern Arizona today in response to moistening southwest flow ahead of a cut off low pressure system. The cut-off low is currently situated west of the Baja coastline and is forecast to track eastward across Sonora, Mexico through the early part of this week. Warmer daytime temperatures will mean showers will be mixed precipitation, or even rain, in the higher elevations.
730 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2023 Fair weather expected Monday with warmer temperatures.
Ridging is anchored over the area and has no plans on leaving over the next 7 days. Ridging will remain in control of the area through the week.
651 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2023 A dry night will be followed by rain showers accompanying a weak Monday cold front.
624 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2023 Dry weather can be expected through tonight as high pressure keeps its influence on the area. Locally, high pressure overhead today will shift east tonight as a weak impulse moves through the Ohio Valley. Also a bit breezy this afternoon with southwest winds, so running on the warmer side of guidance, therefore bumped temperatures a few degrees warmer. The clouds will dissipate by this afternoon and the winds will decrease this evening as the trough moves east of the area. With westerly flow, not very confident rain will make it east of the mountains, so kept best chances along and west of the Blue Ridge.
1151 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 A broad trough exists over much of the CONUS, shunting the subtropical ridge south over the Gulf of Mexico. Broad southwest flow downstream of the cut-off low near SoCal continues to stream abundant Pacific moisture across the region, resulting in widespread mid and high clouds.
High pressure over the western Atlantic will push seaward as the trailing ridge axis settles across the local Atlantic tonight. (00Z TAFS) VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period as high pressure builds over ECFL.
The ridge is on, with the 00Z RAOBS from Merida and KKEY measuring 592 dm at 500 mb, which suggests 593 dm just north of the Yucatan Channel. The low-level ridge orphaned over the Gulf of Mexico has weakened the gradient across the Keys, with east winds averaging 4 to 7 knots. The forecast calls for nil rain chances and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with radiational cooling favored over the larger islands of the Lower Keys. Gentle easterly breezes will slacken gradually early this week as high pressure broadens over the western North Atlantic and Florida.
1124 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2023 A dry night will be followed by rain showers accompanying a weak Monday cold front.
135 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 A weak disturbance bringing clouds this evening will move offshore overnight in favor of high pressure.
1253 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 Dry weather can be expected through tonight as high pressure keeps its influence on the area. Locally, high pressure overhead today will shift east tonight as a weak impulse moves through the Ohio Valley. Also a bit breezy this afternoon with southwest winds, so running on the warmer side of guidance, therefore bumped temperatures a few degrees warmer. The clouds will dissipate by this afternoon and the winds will decrease this evening as the trough moves east of the area. With westerly flow, not very confident rain will make it east of the mountains, so kept best chances along and west of the Blue Ridge.
High pressure will continue across the CWA overnight. A zonal flow pattern will persist through the short term with high pressure at the surface and southwesterly surface flow.
(The rest of tonight) Latest sfc analysis indicates low pressure centered over northwest OK with a weak front across far nern OK. A weak short wave trough over KS may produce a few sprinkles across far northern counties tonight as it brushes the area, otherwise, abundant high cloudiness should persist through the night. (Monday through Sunday) A sustained flow of high level subtropical moisture/cloud won't be disrupted until the upper low west of the Baja ejects into the Plains later in the week.
Upper-level ridging will dominate this week's weather.
High pressure over the western Atlantic will push seaward as the trailing ridge axis settles across the local Atlantic tonight. (00Z TAFS) Dry and mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period as high pressure builds over ECFL.
High pressure at the sfc is also in place over the central/eastern Gulf region, allowing for light SW/S winds. This is translating into unseasonably warm temps in the lower/mid 50s mainly for the western/central half of the area, although these temps should drop a few more degrees before the onset of the daytime hrs.
251 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 Fair weather expected today with warmer temperatures.
1113 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 (This evening through Monday Night) Dry and warmer than normal conditions are expected through the next 36 hours across the Four State Region ahead of the next chance of rain.
This should keep temperatures at or above freezing in those areas, and also eat away at the snowpack that is out there.
908 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 A broad trough exists over much of the CONUS, shunting the subtropical ridge south over the Gulf of Mexico. Broad southwest flow downstream of the cut-off low near SoCal continues to stream abundant Pacific moisture across the region, resulting in widespread mid and high clouds.
1057 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 Winds have become breezy today as low pressure moves across Northern Ontario. A cold front stretches southwestward from this system to Kansas City.
An upper air disturbance moves across the area today and tonight as a cold front approaches from the north.
1040 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 (The rest of tonight) Latest sfc analysis indicates low pressure centered over northwest OK with a weak front across far nern OK. A weak short wave trough over KS may produce a few sprinkles across far northern counties tonight as it brushes the area, otherwise, abundant high cloudiness should persist through the night. (Monday through Sunday) A sustained flow of high level subtropical moisture/cloud won't be disrupted until the upper low west of the Baja ejects into the Plains later in the week.
High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with lows tonight in the low to mid 60s. Tuesday will be even warmer with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s possible and then lows Tuesday night only getting down into the mid to upper 60s.
726 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with the coldest air sitting over the north Hudson Bay and northwest flow ahead of a synoptic ridge running from central British Columbia through southern Alberta to northeast Montana. The crest of the ridge attached to the northwest flow is moving on shore over central British Columbia with a strong disturbance on its back side about to slam into the crest and push it into the Pacific Northwest. This will transmute the bulk of the ridge into a trough plunging it south. Meanwhile, The newly formed trough from the previous ridge crest will plunge through the Pacific Northwest pulling Arctic air down the Front Range ahead of it.
Dry conditions should prevail today as dynamic subsidence due to the influence of the mid-lvl ridge should prevent anything (other than an increase in cloudiness) from forming along the east coast sea breeze this afternoon. High pressure will continue to build in over South Florida from the Gulf of Mexico today, resulting in generally dry and warm conditions through the short term. The warming trend continues as we start the work week, as the high temperatures across the area rise several degrees above average. The highs today will reach the upper 80s across interior and southwest FL, and will range from the low to mid 80s along the coasts. On Tuesday, high temperatures rise an additional few degrees, with highs along the coast reaching the mid 80s and temperatures over the interior heating up to the low 90s.
Probabilities of temps over 80 are very high for most of the area, and think all but immediate coastal areas will reach the lower to mid 80s today. Temperatures will be in the 80s for much of the area once again Tuesday, and should be a couple of degrees warmer than Monday.
601 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 Fair weather expected today with warmer temperatures.
Some showers and a few thunderstorms may be possible along and south of a warm front moving north across the area.
412 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 Temperatures will be a little colder today with dry weather behind a cold front that passed last night.
533 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 (Today and tonight) Weak cold front currently extending from near Woodward, to Guthrie, to Chandler is forecast to continue to settle slowly southward and stall across southern portions of Oklahoma tonight. Outside of far northern Oklahoma (behind this weak front) temperatures are running about 10 to 15 degrees warmer those seen yesterday at this time. This, combined with the anticipation of thinner mid-high level clouds today, high temperatures today are expected to run about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday most locations, although less of a warm up across northern Oklahoma well behind the weakening front.
High pressure will continue to build in over South Florida from the Gulf of Mexico today, resulting in generally dry and warm conditions through the short term. The warming trend continues as we start the work week, as the high temperatures across the area rise several degrees above average. The highs today will reach the upper 80s across interior and southwest FL, and will range from the low to mid 80s along the coasts. On Tuesday, high temperatures rise an additional few degrees, with highs along the coast reaching the mid 80s and temperatures over the interior heating up to the low 90s.
Lows will be in the 60s area-wide which is warmer than normal for this time of year. /JNE/ Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer across most of our CWA as global models highlight a weak warm front moving over our forecast area by Tuesday morning. The rest of Tuesday should remain quiet giving us a little break from the rain as the closed low opens up and continues to track northeast across the Texas Big Bend by Tuesday evening.
Because of this, I think the zonal flow will play a bigger role in allowing temperatures to climb into a similar place they were yesterday -- maybe even a couple of degrees warmer. A warm front will lift through the mid- state and while rain chances along the front will be minimal, the surface pressure gradient will tighten considerably behind it.
622 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 Temperatures will be a little colder today with dry weather behind a cold front that passed last night.
An upper trough that has persisted to our west will continue to provide southwesterly flow aloft. The High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a warning and an advisory has been issued for the plains. The upper trough out west will finally near the area late Tuesday. Stronger downslope flow along with mid level thermal ridging will likely lead to the warmest day we have seen this year. Widespread highs in the 80s are expected along with another day of strong winds, especially in the higher elevations.
High temperatures will vary from the single digits in the northeast to the lower 30s in the southwest. Therefore, low temperatures are forecast to drop into down to 10 below zero across the northeast while the southwest will remain in the lower teens.
508 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 (Today and tonight) Similar to yesterday, an upper level low continues to churn off the Baja California peninsula, leaving us in an area of west to southwesterly flow aloft. The low level jet will weaken overall by mid morning but by then gusts will begin to come up all across the CWA as we start to see some mixing into the lower- mid levels.
Still expecting generally up to 3 inches of snow, with some higher amounts possible over the highest elevations. Early Tuesday, the upper-level trough responsible for the main part of our winter storm midweek will move onshore over the Pac NW. Ahead of this trough, warm air will push into our CWA, and the baroclinic zone stretching NW to SE across SD will tighten. Meanwhile, the upper trough will deepen and dig into the Rockies.
Winds will remain gusty out of the southwest Discussion: Aloft, we are under a zonal pattern where a large scale high is over the Caribbean and a broad trough over the Northern U. Valley locations will be a couple of degrees warmer with highs in the low to mid 60's.
However, a shallow, fast moving mid-level short wave trough is expected to bring a little additional lift resulting in increased snowfall rates later this morning and into the afternoon. In addition, as pointed out by neighboring BOU forecaster, the dry layer above the shallow moisture pool raises the potential for areas of light freezing drizzle across the northern Colorado mountains at times today and tonight. Later in the night, snowfall is expected to decrease in the wake of the short wave while flow begins to veer to the west- northwest as a long wave trough digs southward over the Pacific Northwest.
723 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with the coldest air sitting over the north Hudson Bay and northwest flow ahead of a synoptic ridge running from central British Columbia through southern Alberta to northeast Montana. The crest of the ridge attached to the northwest flow is moving on shore over central British Columbia with a strong disturbance on its back side about to slam into the crest and push it into the Pacific Northwest. This will transmute the bulk of the ridge into a trough plunging it south. Meanwhile, The newly formed trough from the previous ridge crest will plunge through the Pacific Northwest pulling Arctic air down the Front Range ahead of it.
540 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 Scattered showers are expected today through part of Tuesday with crossing cold fronts.
(Today and tonight) Weak cold front currently extending from near Woodward, to Guthrie, to Chandler is forecast to continue to settle slowly southward and stall across southern portions of Oklahoma tonight. Outside of far northern Oklahoma (behind this weak front) temperatures are running about 10 to 15 degrees warmer those seen yesterday at this time. This, combined with the anticipation of thinner mid-high level clouds today, high temperatures today are expected to run about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday most locations, although less of a warm up across northern Oklahoma well behind the weakening front.
641 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 Scattered showers are expected today through part of Tuesday with crossing cold fronts.
(Today and tonight) Similar to yesterday, an upper level low continues to churn off the Baja California peninsula, leaving us in an area of west to southwesterly flow aloft. The low level jet will weaken overall by mid morning but by then gusts will begin to come up all across the CWA as we start to see some mixing into the lower- mid levels.
If it holds together, this could put the high temperature forecast at play for areas affected by it.
229 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 High pressure both aloft and at the surface remains over the region for the foreseeable future, with warm and rain-free conditions continuing. Relatively pleasant high temperatures today (but still above normal) will continue to increase through tomorrow and the rest of the week in response to rising heights with strengthening high pressure aloft.
103 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 Scattered rain showers, mainly isolated to the higher elevations will be possible this afternoon and evening.
Even warmer Tue with plenty of sun aftn highs in the M80s coast and inland east of I-4 and L-80s generally west of I-4.
Overnight the high will move overhead with mostly clear skies and light winds expected. The high will move offshore by Tuesday and will gradually become absorbed into the larger western Atlantic high (which will eventually become our dominant surface feature in the mid-week period). Overall synoptic flow will remain light and sea-breeze driven, while the mid-lvl ridging will keep us dry.
343 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023 Discussion/Marine --Significant freezing rain, sleet, and snow possible midweek-- Confidence continues to grow for a high impact event featuring a variety of potentially heavy winter precip types.
This should allow slightly drier air to advect southward and bring cooler overnight lows, especially compared to last night( the exception is northern Oklahoma where lows were rather chilly).
(Rest of Today) Zonal/westerly flow of 85-95 knots in the mid-levels will prevail across the TN Valley for much of the day, even as a subtropical ridge centered across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico begins to weaken and shift eastward in response to an amplifying trough digging into the northern Great Plains. In the lower-levels, a 40-50 knot westerly low-level jet atop lighter southwesterly flow near the surface has resulted in sufficient lift for the generation of a broad area of light rain across central portions of KY/TN that will continue to spread eastward into the southern Appalachians this afternoon.
North and Central Texas remains beneath southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper level low near the Baja California region, and Pacific moisture continues to stream over the region.
1152 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 (Today and tonight) Similar to yesterday, an upper level low continues to churn off the Baja California peninsula, leaving us in an area of west to southwesterly flow aloft. The low level jet will weaken overall by mid morning but by then gusts will begin to come up all across the CWA as we start to see some mixing into the lower- mid levels.
1154 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 (Rest of Today) Zonal/westerly flow of 85-95 knots in the mid-levels will prevail across the TN Valley for much of the day, even as a subtropical ridge centered across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico begins to weaken and shift eastward in response to an amplifying trough digging into the northern Great Plains. In the lower-levels, a 40-50 knot westerly low-level jet atop lighter southwesterly flow near the surface has resulted in sufficient lift for the generation of a broad area of light rain across central portions of KY/TN that will continue to spread eastward into the southern Appalachians this afternoon.
1150 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 (Today and tonight) Weak cold front currently extending from near Woodward, to Guthrie, to Chandler is forecast to continue to settle slowly southward and stall across southern portions of Oklahoma tonight. Outside of far northern Oklahoma (behind this weak front) temperatures are running about 10 to 15 degrees warmer those seen yesterday at this time. This, combined with the anticipation of thinner mid-high level clouds today, high temperatures today are expected to run about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday most locations, although less of a warm up across northern Oklahoma well behind the weakening front.
Continued blanket of higher cloud across the south will keep temps warmer, while sites near the KS border north of the boundary, such as KBVO, could see enough clearing to allow temps to radiate down closer to freezing.