Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
602 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 Rain showers will taper off this morning as a low pressure system moves northeast of the area.
Wind gusts are remaining under 20 mph for now, but we could see this start to increase slightly over the next few hours as the pressure gradient continues to tighten and the low level jet increases. Broad upper troughing will keep that moisture in place across our eastern half throughout the night on Saturday.
Below normal temperatures will then persist over the region through the weekend with highs in the sixties across the lower deserts.
The upper flow pattern across our region will come under increasing influence of an upper trough that is progged to come off the Rockies into the Northern and Central Plains through the first half of the upcoming weekend.
Today and Saturday High pressure has exited the region with a steady flow of Pacific moisture moving into the area in a west northwesterly flow aloft. Look for 1 to 3 inches of valley snow, with the higher amounts along the Eastern benches of the Eastern Magic valley and Snake plain.
Rain showers will taper off this morning as a low pressure system moves northeast of the area.
A low pressure system passing to the south will bring increasing clouds to the region today and cloudy to mostly cloudy skies to the region tonight. Highs today are expected to rise into the lower 30s across the north, with upper 30s across east-central Wisconsin. Lows tonight are expected to range from the middle to upper teens across the north, with lows in the lower 30s along the lakeshore. Although the main low will track off to the east by Saturday, mostly cloudy skies are expected to remain as another low pressure system organizes to the south of the area. Highs on Saturday are expected to range from the lower 30s across the north to the upper 30s across east-central Wisconsin.
As drier air continues to filter in, fog should diminish from northwest to southeast with the lowest visibility expected across the Coastal Plains around sunrise. Highs will be warmer than normal today mainly from the upper 60s to mid 70s. A few showers or scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Coastal Plains through early evening, although the better chances will remain closer to the Gulf Coast near the cold front. Overnight temperatures will be a bit cooler than those seen tonight with Saturday morning lows from the mid 40s to mid 50s.
The warm up has started with morning temperatures coming in 10+ degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Temperatures across the region early this morning were in the 50's and 60's and will quickly warm up into the low to mid 80's this afternoon. Broad high pressure centered near Bermuda ridges west-southwest over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
(Today and tonight) A secondary weak cold front is making its way through our area early this morning, turning the winds more to the northwest behind it. Winds at mid and upper levels will be from the southwest, as a trough approaches from the west.
A nice day expected with cooler air gently filtering in across the Four-State area. A series of upper troughs moving across the Central Plains will bring a couple of reinforcing cold fronts through the area.
With temperatures near/just below freezing across fog areas, there is some potential for slick spots (associated with freezing fog) as well. While a broad trough axis will advance towards the area during the day, the bulk of synoptic/mesoscale forcing looks to remain north of the area such that dry conditions are expected.
Given how warm temperatures stayed in areas under cloudy skies last night/this morning, this forecast leaned warmer with the help of NBM 90th percentile and a blend of NBM and short-range guidance.
A cold front should begin to move through the CWA tomorrow night. However, there will likely be some northward progression of the warm front/wedge front tomorrow afternoon/evening across the metro/NW GA. and then along the cold front tomorrow night.
Whatever remnants are left can be seen dwindling away as daytime heating warms temps well above freezing. Temperatures will drop below freezing again tonight and as they do so, there will be enough moisture at the sfc to support the development of areas of patchy freezing fog in the north and eastern Panhandles. Confidence is on the lower side, but the potential is definitely there and could cause impacts during the morning hours should it occur. Dry air will be reinforced tomorrow as a broad trough deepens across the Plains. Placement beneath the left entrance region of an upper level jet along/behind the trough axis will favor large scale subsidence, and maintain dry air advection to the region.
231 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 * Possible drizzle/fog or Freezing drizzle/fog for south central KS Saturday morning. There is some concern about some patchy dense fog/freezing fog over south central KS for late tonight or early on Sat, given the wet soils from recent rainfall combined with light easterly winds, but think there is only a small window for this fog to develop, as low clouds increase ahead of the next system Sat morning. Gonna have to keep an eye on surface temps as the drizzle/fog moves in, as some areas across central KS, may still be close to freezing for a few hours Sat morning. So will mention a drizzle/freezing drizzle chance for a few hours after sunrise, until surface temps can climb above freezing.
Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s across the east coast metros, with upper 60s further inland.
Dry air in the lower levels will minimize the chances for precipitation. Warmer air starts to work its way into our area on Saturday, though this will mainly affect southwestern portions of our area.
Latest radar and satellite imagery show drier air has moved across the area, with best rain coverage mainly north of I-80 and across the ridges at this time. We should expect a surge of warmer air on Saturday which will push our temperatures well above normal.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler today as a period of cold air advection will accompany the system. We should expect a surge of warmer air on Saturday which will push our temperatures well above normal.
1110 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 (Today and tonight) A secondary weak cold front is making its way through our area early this morning, turning the winds more to the northwest behind it. Winds at mid and upper levels will be from the southwest, as a trough approaches from the west.
Rain has moved out of the area but low clouds, and light fog/mist continue ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain showers will taper off this morning as a low pressure system moves northeast of the area.
249 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023 Slow moving low pressure system keeps light rain in the forecast through Friday night. Slow moving low pressure system will gradually work its way through the Midwest region today and tonight. Bufkit soundings continue to highlight ample low level moisture trapped in the lowest several thousand feet. This moisture, combined with the weak forcing from the low pressure, will lead to periods of light rain/drizzle through today and the beginning of the overnight hours. As we head into Saturday evening, a low pressure system to the south will push moisture up into our northern KY and southern OH counties.
The patchy drizzle over the region should continue to fade as low pressure moves away from the area. Clouds should break Saturday as a weak high pressure ridge moves across the area. Late in the day a small chance of rain enters the forecast ahead of a mid level trof over the central and northern Plains. Confidence continues to gradually increase that we may see some light rain activity (light showers) Saturday night as the aforementioned mid level trof moves east.
A cold front resides just to the west of the forecast area this afternoon. As another disturbance embedded in this southwest flow and ahead of the front lifts into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, chances for showers and storms will yet again increase across the forecast area late this afternoon and through the overnight hours. In the wake of the front, some slightly cooler drier air will try to filter into the area as winds become more northwesterly.
Highs are still forecast to top out in the low to mid 80s, with the warmest spots across the Okeechobee and Treasure Coast region.
Broad upper ridging extends through the Gulf of Mexico, over Florida and farther eastward to Bermuda. Daytime highs over the weekend will top out in the low to mid 80's with lows in the 60's. Farther to the west, a developing area of low pressure near Missouri extends a frontal boundary southward and is producing disturbed weather over the northwestern gulf coast states.
1131 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023 Several waves of low pressure will slide along a slow moving frontal boundary located over Lake Erie and western NY.
Additionally, winds could shift to more northwesterly, bringing in slightly cooler air and despite solar heating, high temperatures remaining mostly in the lower to middle 60s for locations such as Odessa and Midland.
An approaching trough of low pressure towards the end of the next workweek will bring the return of unsettled weather. The high clouds are associated with a cold front approaching from the north. The cold front is currently parked over far NorCal resulting in light rain near the CA/OR border. (Today and tonight) Cool and unsettled weather will persist today with mid/upper level troughing aloft. Temperatures will struggle to warm much beyond the lower 60s (upper 40s to lower 50s in the highest elevations). Breezy northerly winds are also expected especially near the coast and in the higher elevations. Tonight, warmer conditions are expected with lows generally in the 40s for much of the region.
Overnight lows will be several degrees above seasonal normals, in the low to mid 40s.
Southwest low level flow will continue to pump moisture into the region overnight into Saturday as a cold front moves slowly eastward toward the region. Temperatures will remain fairly steady, if not rise a few degrees overnight with warm advection in the low levels. Continued mild on Saturday with the lower elevations likely reaching the 60 degree mark. Despite the stronger southwest flow aloft, an inversion should keep winds rather light at the surface except for some higher gusts on the ridges.
(This evening through Saturday) An upper level short wave trough over Arizona and Utah early this afternoon will move across the Four Corners region tonight and will be just west of the forecast area at sunrise Saturday before quickly moving to the east of the area by noon. Quiet weather ahead of the upper trough tonight and early Saturday will give way to windy conditions in the wake of the trough and its associated mid level cloud cover. Meanwhile downsloping winds will help offset cold advection in the wake of the trough. As a result highs tomorrow should be similar to today across the western half of the forecast while to the east 5 to 10 degrees warmer will be possible.
The cold front associated with this wave will move through during late morning through mid afternoon hours and bring widespread snows across the mountains with light accumulations in the valleys.
We remained well warmer than initially anticipated, as the temperatures yesterday increased and clouds overnight kept us warmer.
From synopsis, high pressure will slide east across the western North Atlantic over the next several days.
357 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023 Foggy this morning across the north central and into the James River Valley, before a cold front moves through later today, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. As the upper low and surface front approach, ascent will overspread an environment characterized by 1000 J/kg of CAPE, modest low and mid-level lapse rates, and ~40 knots of 0-6km shear. Chances for precipitation end in the James River Valley overnight tonight, with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s across the forecast area.
Bufkit soundings suggested the low clouds would be slow to clear today, thus lowered temperatures a few degrees across the north and across north-east Wisconsin. Despite the passage of a cold front yesterday, high temperatures will be well into the 80s from Marathon and Wood counties southeast into Winnebago County where the heat index values could approach 100F for a few hours this afternoon. On Friday, the next upper level disturbance will drop into the area along with a surface cold front.
(Today and tonight) A weak "back door" cold front moving through from the northeast yesterday, allows for drier air to filter in for today.
1213 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) TS Harold skirted around the southern periphery of the stout upper level high pressure centered over MO/KS/OK/AR, with remnants now moving into the far southern parts of AZ and NM. For tonight into tomorrow, the upper level high pressure is progged to slowly shift west with ensemble 50th percentile values showing a 596dm high center around central OK / north TX by 00z Friday. Temperatures tomorrow may be a little warmer with more mid to high 90s (few low 100s in typical hot spots).
A frontal boundary will set up across east-central WI on Thursday as low pressure moves east across the state.
Upper level ridge across the Mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon will shift back into Oklahoma by Thursday afternoon, allowing some drying to take place and pushing temperatures up a few more degrees.
Looking aloft, high pressure remains in place across the central CONUS this afternoon and will continue this way into Thursday. Because of this, we have kept the Excessive Heat Warning in place through Thursday evening with the high potential of it continuing into the weekend.
Tonight and Thursday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a relatively stalled cold front located from near Green Bay to between Tomahawk and Merrill early this afternoon. Meanwhile, north of the front, widespread low stratus exists within a shallow, colder airmass where winds are north to northeasterly and temps are in the low to middle 70s. Weak high pressure over the Lake Superior region will continue to funnel in cooler air via north winds across northeast Wisconsin. High temps have continued their cooler trend, which makes sense given the cloud cover. Highs will range from the lower to middle 70s near the U.
(Today through Friday) High pressure remains the dominant force across the area.
(This evening through Thursday) Warm across the area this evening as thermal ridging has set in and kept onshore flow at a minimum for a bit longer than expected. Most lower elevation areas can expect lows in the lower 60s, with inland areas and much of the South Bay and bay shoreline seeing lows in the mid-to-upper 60s.
217 AM MDT Thu Aug 24 2023 Current Water Vapor and upper air analysis shows broad upper ridge over the central and northern plains with a closed upper low over western Canada. At the surface, low pressure and an associated boundary sits over eastern MT. As the upper low slides east across Canada, ridge breaks down and flow over our region becomes more zonal. Monsoonal moisture continues to advect in from the south, however the majority of moisture will stay south of the forecast area as the upper low tracks across Canada.
/NEW/ /Through Friday Night/ A stagnant weather pattern will continue through the short term portion of the forecast with upper level high pressure settling across the Central and Southern Plains. Subsidence under the ridge should continue to limit the potential for showers or thunderstorms for most of the CWA through Thursday night. /Issued 127 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023/ /Friday Onward/ Cooler temperatures are on the way! Before they arrive, we'll have to contend with yet another hot weekend across North and Central Texas.
(Today and tonight) Mid-level high pressure will begin to slide back to the southwest today becoming centered over southern Oklahoma by this afternoon.
By sunrise Thursday, Valley lows will bottom out in the mid-60s to low-70s, or upwards of 5-10 deg F warmer than they should be for this time of year.
924 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Cooler temperatures and dry, breezy weather today. Warmer than normal temperatures will return late this week into this weekend with shower chances on Friday. Today and tomorrow: Shower activity in the northern mountains will dwindle this afternoon as the trough has started to depart into Northwest Montana. Mid level heights will slowly rise tonight into tomorrow signaling the return of much warmer and drier air. Breezy southwest winds have started to peak in the region with the departure of the trough as well.
357 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023 High pressure slides to the east today. A complex low pressure system approaches tonight and Friday.
Low level thermal/mixing progs are a bit cooler today than days past, while weak low level CAA northerly winds persist through mid-day. Later this evening, the next wind-shift/cold front is progged to be entering the western Dakotas. At this point, it appears that Friday sets up as a dry/quiet weather day on north-northwest post-cold frontal winds. Overall, temperatures are going to be trending cooler (back toward climo normal for late August) over the next couple of days. A mostly dry forecast with near seasonal temperatures thanks to northwest flow and upstream ridging.
Afternoon heat indices of 105-115 and overnight lows in the mid 70s to the lower 80s, compounding heat stress.
Although max temperatures are expected to be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday, the dewpoints are also expected to be a few degrees lower. Ridging will remain dominate tonight through Friday from the north but a TUTT low over the Bay of Campeche may reflect bands of positive vorticity and enhanced moisture on its northern outer extent at 850-700mb over the Middle Texas coastal waters and southern half of the CWA.
1048 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 (Rest of tonight) A weak backdoor cold front entered northeast portions of Alabama late this afternoon. While it provided little relief from the heat, dewpoints across northeast Alabama dropped into the lower 70s versus the mid to upper 70s being observed further west. No significant changes were made to the overnight forecast, another mild night is in store with lows bottoming out in the low to mid 70s by morning.
As such, upslope flow will keep a chance of convection, mainly over the higher terrain, in place today. Unfortunately, thicknesses increase a bit today as the ridge builds west into Oklahoma, although a few higher elevations could see highs right around normal or even a degree or two below.
The forecast POPs roughly follow the GFS and ECMWF 00Z deterministic runs that show precip blossoming along the cold front this afternoon.
Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower 70s over inland areas and into the mid to upper 70s for areas along the coast and adjacent to the St Johns River. (Thursday through Friday) High pressure ridging and drier air will build in over the region through the end of the week following the fropa with a prominent northeasterly flow maintaining through the forecast area.
1024 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Central CONUS upper ridge will break down as it shifts SE, supporting a cooling trend through the remainder of the week. Remains of Harold are advecting north around the west side of the ridge and will help support increasing chances for showers the next few days across parts of the area, coupled with passing impulses and residual monsoon moisture. Unfortunately, the bulk of the moisture will get shunted south of the FA as a northern stream trough advects through the region Thurs night into Friday, leaving mainly slight chances for rain through the weekend most places. Drier and cooler NE flow will spread into the region Friday, with the frontal zone shifting SW of the FA.
This allows for a potential for a boundary to slide down/overtop said ridge and introduce some low pops by Friday night, when the most extreme heat is over with anyway.
The lower levels will gradually dry out ahead of the front Thursday and Friday before moisture increases in the wake of the front Friday night.
Today and Friday Mostly dry weather is expected across eastern Idaho today as the region resides on the far western edge of a building area of high pressure.
(Today and tonight) The upper-level ridge will build back across the area today and bring back hot and dry conditions to West Central Texas through the end of the week. The "cooler" conditions across the Northern Edwards Plateau can be attributed to some lingering cloud cover this morning, which will limit some daytime heating over that area today.
By Thursday morning, our forecast lows are warmer than our record warm minimums so we should easily break those records.
* Pattern change coming this weekend; cooler temperatures and rain chances return. With slightly "cooler" temperatures and slightly lower dewpoints, a rouge storm developing later this afternoon (like yesterday afternoon) is not anticipated. The upper ridge that has brought this oppressive heat to the region over the past week or so will begin to break down on Friday, and a weak frontal boundary will sag across portions of central/east- central Kansas by mid-afternoon. Friday evening through the nighttime hours where mid- level temps are cooler behind the weak frontal boundary, a few showers and storms are possible.
A 597 dam upper level high centered near the Kansas-Arkansas border as of 19Z will drift to the southwest tonight leading to another hot day tomorrow with low chances of precipitation as upper level subsidence increases over the forecast area.
gov/eax/wbgt Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights overlaid show the strong upper high is past its prime and slowly weakening as the center of the shifts southward. With upstream observations in the low 70s to near 70, we should see afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s with cooler dewpoints in our west and warmer dewpoints in our east.
A large area of high pressure will allow hot and dry conditions to remain across the Mid-South through the end of the work week.
(Today and tonight) Hot and humid conditions continue with slightly warmer air temperatures today as the center of the upper ridge passes westward across our FA. Despite the slightly lower dewpoint temperatures, the higher dry bulb temperatures will compensate to yield heat indices within the 105 to 115 deg range. However, rain chances are very low due to strong subsidence beneath the ridge and depth of dry air.
With a very strong mid/upper ridge firmly established over the Tennessee Valley and a dome of hot air situated over the region, it's going to be brutally hot again today.
1042 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 (This evening through Thursday) The short term will continue to be dominated by heat as the 500mb ridge shifts back directly over us.
However, not very likely to be very vigorous, in this cooler airmass. Somewhat higher PoPs are already in for the rest of tonight and Thursday, with emphasis close enough to the circulation to cover the higher rainfall areas.
This boundary should push north/northeast today as low pressure moves into the area, dropping south as the low passes through. Added Fond du Lac County to the Heat Advisory given the expected northward push of the boundary, but still think Ozaukee and Sheboygan will remain toward the cooler side of the boundary and thus kept these counties out of any heat headlines. Went towards the higher end of guidance for dewpoints given current conditions and what has occurred the last couple days. Temps from Milwaukee southward near the lake could end up warmer/cooler by a few degrees depending on the exact timing of the boundary. Highs Friday ahead of this system will be cooler than today, but still a few degrees above normal.
The upper-level ridge that has been dominating the regions weather remains perched to our west with 500mb heights still about 598dm. Friday the upper ridge and a jet max to the north move in a way that nudges a 'cold' front towards the region from the northeast.