Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, rising mid-level heights and should keep the probability of daytime convection low (~20%) with the highest relative probabilities across the east.
Any precipitation will likely end prior to sunrise tomorrow as the upper level trough moves east out of the area.
142 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 There is a low probability of daytime showers northeast and east of the Pittsburgh metro Friday affiliated with an upper low.
159 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Current water vapor imagery depicts a low swirling over Nevada, a high over the plains, and the large trough moving southwestward over the eastern United States. Today, the main weather impact will come from an upper level low centered over the Nevada area. This low is expected to make a northward trek through the day, being blocked from going eastward thanks to the seemingly everlasting high over the plains. As the low makes its travel northward, it will circulate some drier air up into southern Wyoming, essentially cinching off the stream of moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures today will be very similar to those Thursday, generally in the 70s, with lows 80s for the warmer basin locations.
(Today) Passing cloud cover is helping to keep temperatures on the mild side so far early this morning, with 07z temperatures in the low to mid 60s in most locations (compared with the 50s across much of eastern and middle Tennessee). With northerly flow attempting to advect in a slightly cooler and drier air mass, it should feel rather comfortable with RH values dropping into the 30-35% range by the afternoon to go along with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Quiet weather will continue into the overnight hours with another chilly morning with temperatures dropping into the low 50s or upper 40s across the region.
Afternoon storms are expected to develop across the high plains of Colorado and eventually drift east across the western Kansas prairie later tonight. Some hail threat will also exist today given the higher bulk shear relative to the last several days. Will keep the highest pops starting out across the western zones and gradually spread it east as the evening wears on.
Currently - A broad deep trough aligned across the Gulf of Mexico continues to drive a broad moist confluent zone across South Florida and the Keys. This setup is being assisted by troughing along the Atlantic coast and an Atlantic ridge stretching westward across Cuba and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Miraculously, the Lower and Middle Keys were missed by just about all cells. Will maintain likely pops for the overnight period, which is on the high side of guidance. An Atlantic ridge across Cuba and troughing along the Atlantic coast will maintain gentle to moderate southwesterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
415 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 West to southwesterly flow will continue across the area through much of the period as the ridge axis remains south of the state and a series of frontal boundaries stall just to the north of the area. West to southwest flow will be in place across the waters with the ridge axis to the south and frontal boundaries stalling to the north.
A broad deep upper level trough remains across the Gulf of Mexico which continues to drive a broad moist confluent zone across South Florida and the Keys. This confluent zone is thanks to an Atlantic ridge stretching westward across Cuba and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As the trough gets closer to the Keys later this afternoon, surface winds should begin to back to the west and even northwest briefly.
348 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Blocking pattern holds into the weekend but confidence is increasing that the pattern will finally break.
1102 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 (Rest of tonight) The Tennessee Valley remains on the northern side of a cold front, keeping the shower and storm activity confined to areas to our south. Northerly flow will continue to keep cooler, drier air moving through the forecast area and a dry forecast will persist tonight.
The SW will have the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms today and tonight and the NE will have the lowest chances.
The only caveat though is the fact that N LA still maintains moderate MLCapes as well, even as some of the higher PW's try to spill S into the I-20 parishes. This may result in some MVFR vsbys for a few hours before heating helps to mix out this low-level moisture trapped near the sfc.
With weak flow in the mid and upper levels, bulk shear values will run on the low side - ranging from around 15- 20 kts west of Interstate 29, to 25 to 30 kts east of there. Because of this, the severe potential is on the low side. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s. Cooler air begins to feed into the area behind the front on Saturday, and with lowering 850 mb temperatures highs will be in the mid and upper 70s. Any rain is expected to end by Saturday night with much cooler temperatures as lows fall into the lower to mid 50s.
(Today through Saturday) As anticipated yesterdays cold front has stalled just along the FFC/TAE border. Despite the low dewpoints wide spread fire weather conditions will remain at bay. Tomorrow will be very similar to today with dry northwesterly flow aloft becoming more zonal and high pressure building at the surface. This will lead to a slightly warmer day with high temperatures in the mid 80s and low 90s.
High pressure will build into the region bringing cooler and drier conditions to the Mid-South today and most of the day Saturday.
636 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 High pressure centered over the Upper Midwest will drift southeast into the Ohio Valley over the next 24 hours. The high pressure and dry air will continue to keep precip well outside of our forecast area through tonight. Guidance shows 850mb temperatures warming to 13-15C this afternoon, and with strong June sunshine, highs today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday in the 80-85 degree range. Meanwhile, a short wave trough will dip into the east-central Great Plains Saturday afternoon which will bring somewhat steeper mid level lapserates to western Missouri.
West to southwesterly flow will continue across the area through much of the period as the ridge axis remains south of the state and a series of frontal boundaries stall just to the north of the area.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through Saturday, when a strong cold front brings good chances for more widespread rainfall.
Blocking pattern holds into the weekend but confidence is increasing that the pattern will finally break. The upper low is still churning over the northeast conus though it is slowly weakening and drifting northeastward toward the Atlantic today through Saturday. Meanwhile a northern stream trough will drop through central Canada and into northern Ontario today while pulling a cold front southward toward Lake Superior by Saturday morning. Continued ridging at the surface with increasing heights aloft and thinning veil of smoke which models advertise to push eastward, should all allow temps to increase a few degrees over yesterday into the upper 70s.
The combination of warmer temperatures, the potential for diurnal mixing, a thicker plume of smoke aloft in Michigan and Northern Indiana, and northerly flow in the column may cause air quality to deteriorate into unhealthy thresholds for sensitive populations later today. This, along with midlevel height trends generally being neutral and still overall negative anomalies, suggest maybe a degree or two warmer today at best.
933 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 High pressure will continue to build southeast into the area today. The high will then settle across the Ohio Valley tonight. On Saturday, the high will begin to move east of the region.
Meanwhile, mid-to-high level clouds can be seen on satellite imagery over the eastern Pacific associated with an approaching trough. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s near the coast with 70s across the warmer interior locations.
644 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 High pressure will continue to build southeast into the area today. The high will then settle across the Ohio Valley tonight. On Saturday, the high will begin to move east of the region.
A broad upper-level low pressure system will begin to encroach on our area today, giving us a greater chance for some more active weather this afternoon. As the low spins over Nevada, breezy south winds in the upper-levels will set in over Colorado, while mid levels see southwesterly flow. Checking the high-res guidance, showers and storms will fire over the higher terrain early this afternoon, before the southwesterly steering flow pushes activity off onto the lower terrain a bit later. The plains will see mid-high 80s, while the high valleys and Pikes Peak Region will see mostly 70s.
617 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 High pressure will build into the region bringing cooler and drier conditions to the Mid-South today and most of the day Saturday.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to funnel very dry air into the region today. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s. Tonight will see clear skies and calm winds with low temperatures dipping into the lower to middle 50s. Late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop as a warm front lifts northward through the region. Low temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 60s.
Clouds will be on the increase on Saturday in advance of an upper trough diving south into the area in northerly upper flow.
308 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Blocking pattern will remain in place through the period, keeping the chance of showers and thundestorms going.
A large upper level low just to our east continues to impact our weather around the region. Friday will be one of the cooler days we've observed this week with highs in the lower 80's west of the Cascades and upper 60's to lower 70's east of the Cascades. Cooler onshore flow will keep highs in the 60's along the coast.
320 AM PDT Fri Jun 9 2023 A cloudy an cooler mostly cloudy and cooler with afternoon temperatures in the 70s is expected. One area of concern is the Lower ID Panhandle.
Just about everyone away from the immediate coast can expect temperatures to rise into the lower 90s this afternoon.
Synoptically, a back door cold front was situated across portions of NE AR meanwhile aloft, NW flow will push another weak upper level disturbance across the region later this afternoon.
654 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Dry air and high pressure will remain in control of the pattern through late Saturday night.
- A cold front will enter northern Nebraska Saturday afternoon and will traverse the area Saturday night, bringing a good chance for precipitation to the area.
514 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 (Today) Passing cloud cover is helping to keep temperatures on the mild side so far early this morning, with 07z temperatures in the low to mid 60s in most locations (compared with the 50s across much of eastern and middle Tennessee). With northerly flow attempting to advect in a slightly cooler and drier air mass, it should feel rather comfortable with RH values dropping into the 30-35% range by the afternoon to go along with highs in the low to mid 80s.
529 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Current water vapor imagery depicts a low swirling over Nevada, a high over the plains, and the large trough moving southwestward over the eastern United States. Today, the main weather impact will come from an upper level low centered over the Nevada area. This low is expected to make a northward trek through the day, being blocked from going eastward thanks to the seemingly everlasting high over the plains. As the low makes its travel northward, it will circulate some drier air up into southern Wyoming, essentially cinching off the stream of moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico.
Ridging aloft will provide subsidence across the region today leading to mostly rain-free conditions and very warm temperatures. Models are indicating the ridge will flatten across the area tonight through Saturday, with the upper-level flow becoming more zonal owing to the passing of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance. With this in mind, have gone ahead and placed the CWA (with the exception of the islands) under a Special Weather Statement (SPS) for the high heat index values expected this afternoon. If spending time outdoors, make sure to drink plenty of water, wear light-colored and loose clothing, sunscreen, and try to conduct outdoor activities early in the morning or late in the day when temperatures are cooler.
Thereafter, multi-model guidance shows an offshore trough evolving into a closed upper low during Saturday as the trough progresses toward the SRN CA coast. A plume of midlevel moisture, steep upper-level lapse rates, and ascent will rotate around the northern portion of the low Saturday afternoon and evening, and will aid in high based and/or elevated thunderstorm development spreading west across NWRN CA.
440 AM PDT Fri Jun 9 2023 A cloudy an cooler mostly cloudy and cooler with afternoon temperatures in the 70s is expected. One area of concern is the Lower ID Panhandle.
and Saturday High pressure will slowly shift south through this afternoon and become centered over the mid-Mississippi Valley this evening. The high will continue the string of quiet weather today and much of tonight. Highs today will be a bit warmer; generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s away from Lake Michigan. An approaching cold front will bring the chance for precipitation across the entire region later tonight into Saturday. This slower arrival of the front will allow highs a chance to rise to around 80 across central and east- central Wisconsin before the front and rain arrive while highs will be limited to the lower to middle 70s across the north with the earlier arrival of the cold front and rain showers. Thunderstorms are possible on Saturday as the cold front tracks through the region.
All this courtesy of mid-level ridging overhead and high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico. A short wave trough will move through the ridge tonight and tomorrow, bringing a some high clouds and a non-zero chance of a few coastal showers, but overall rain chances will remain silent.
Once this feature moves thru SW flow aloft remains over the area this weekend with another upper low moving into southern CA.
Upper trough axis over the LA region has resulted in a few showers and storms towards our far southeast CWA this morning. The nearly stationary boundary bisecting the CWA becomes more diffuse by the afternoon, denoted mostly by highs ranging from the upper 80s in central KS to the lower 80s in eastern Kansas. Given the high PWAT values around 1. As the upper ridge continues to break down on Saturday, much of the daylight hours should remain dry as highs climb into the mid 80s. The potent upper trough and cold front is progged to arrive Saturday evening. Highest probs for measurable rainfall occur in the late evening and overnight hours as the cold front surges southward.
Storms fire off first across the Davis Mountains, Stockton Plateau, and into the Big Bend, moving into the lower Trans Pecos and southeastern Permian Basin as the evening progresses. Beyond this afternoon/evening, upper ridging rebuilds, keeping Saturday dry outside of a stray shower/storm popping up off the dryline in the eastern Stockton Plateau. Between upper level ridging present and downsloping surface flow behind a surging dryline each afternoon, high temperatures soar well into the mid to upper 90s for most with triple digits found in the lower elevations of the river valleys and the eastern Permian Basin/western Low Rolling Plains.
(Rest of Today) This morning, clouds across central Alabama associated with a cold front continue to stream from NW to SE. A cooler day is in store across the area as northerly flow will keep temperatures this afternoon in the lower 80s, a few degrees below climatological normals for this time of year.
This system will bring increased precipitation chances, breezy southwesterly winds, and cooler temperatures to the region.
246 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Dry high pressure over the region tonight will move increasingly offshore over the weekend.
255 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 (Issued 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023) Tonight and Saturday: Quiet weather will continue as high pressure shifts over the Ohio River Valley region. Mid and high level moisture gradually increases Saturday as a cold front begins to advance our way from central Canada.
Saturday morning lows are expected to fall into the 50s and low 60s, warmer than last night, but still slightly below average in most locations. Because of this, highs on Saturday will be a few degrees warmer than those of today, reaching the mid to upper 80s in in most of Illinois and in east-central Missouri.
(This afternoon through Saturday Night) Dry conditions are in place today with high pressure dominating the region. With the cooler dewpoints, lows tonight will get into the low to mid 50s, with spots getting into the 40s in the east.
(Rest of today through Saturday) This afternoon there is a frontal boundary to our north along the FL/GA line that stretches back into the middle of the country and ahead into the Atlantic, with multiple areas of weak low pressure riding along the front. At the upper levels, a trough over the Gulf continues to slowly move closer to the area. With DCAPE values around 1100 J/kg, isolated strong to severe wind gusts are possible today though, with the highest likelihood of stronger storms across the east coast metro where boundary interactions are likely this afternoon into early this evening. The upper level trough moves across the area on Saturday. High temps will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, which when combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, will result in apparent temps approaching 100 degrees in some locations.
Highs Saturday will be coolest west, in the upper 70s, while the central and east should reach the lower to mid 80s, with at least some filtered sun in the morning hours before clouds become opaque.
Current surface observations show high pressure moving into the region from the northwest which will keep conditions dry and mild throughout the day.
A cold front extends from a low near James Bay southwest to near Grand Forks, ND. At the same time, low pressure developing ahead of a southward dropping short wave over the northern Plains will develop and ride northeast along the front.
A cold front, currently across northern Montana and northern North Dakota will slide southward across the area later tonight and through the morning hours on Saturday. Cooler, or near seasonal average, temperatures can be expected on Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Saturday night will feature dry conditions with low temperatures dropping into the upper 40s, to the low 50s.
700mb trof axis currently lies over northern Musselshell County and it is hoped that heaviest rain will stay north and east of this axis and the Musselshell River (Ryegate-Lavina experienced flooding last night). Saturday will be notably cooler than of late, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s under plenty of cloud cover and w/ a steady easterly wind.
227 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023 A quasi-stationary surface convergence zone will remain over the region overnight, but will be pushed south and west as Canadian high pressure drops into the northern plains on Saturday. Drier air will begin working into northeast Montana on Saturday with the Canadian high pressure.
A slow-moving mid-upper level low centered over our area will be the focus for convection through this evening.
This high pressure will persist throughout Saturday. High pressure is leading to dry conditions and clear to partly cloudy skies. Tomorrow, high pressure will lead to a similar day as today with clear to partly cloudy skies, no precipitation, and high temperatures in the mid-80s. At the same time, a fairly large trough will begin diving into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region and quickly advance southward.
Much of this activity was just outside the boundary of the DDC forecast area, however the expectation is that there will be a slow expansion southward of the I-70 activity down toward the Highway 96 corridor through the late afternoon and early evening. A rather strong cold front will push south late Saturday Night, which will bring cooler air into southwest Kansas on northeasterly winds.
Temperatures though are rising into the 90s and this strong heating is causing cumulus to develop from the Davis Mountains to the lower Trans Pecos. Highs will be from the mid 90s to the low 100s everywhere except the higher elevations west of the Pecos River.
1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 (Rest of Today) This morning, clouds across central Alabama associated with a cold front continue to stream from NW to SE. A cooler day is in store across the area as northerly flow will keep temperatures this afternoon in the lower 80s, a few degrees below climatological normals for this time of year.
1138 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Current water vapor imagery depicts a low swirling over Nevada, a high over the plains, and the large trough moving southwestward over the eastern United States. Today, the main weather impact will come from an upper level low centered over the Nevada area. This low is expected to make a northward trek through the day, being blocked from going eastward thanks to the seemingly everlasting high over the plains. As the low makes its travel northward, it will circulate some drier air up into southern Wyoming, essentially cinching off the stream of moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico.
A cold front will sweep through from the north tonight, cooling temperatures, bringing breezy winds, and cleaning out all this convection with higher pressure.
An upper level ridge will shift a bit farther east over West Central Texas today, along with a strengthening low level thermal ridge. Some of this activity may work its way into western portions of the forecast area this evening, but will keep POPs on the low side given some uncertainty regarding coverage and eastward expansion into the area. Temperatures will be a little warmer tonight, with overnight lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Ridging will persist through Saturday night, leaving us mostly dry. Make sure to drink plenty of water, wear light-colored and loose clothing, sunscreen, and try to conduct outdoor activities early in the morning or late in the day when temperatures are cooler.
1228 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 High pressure will continue to bring VFR conditions to SE MI, with daytime heating producing a FEW-SCT cu field, predominately outside of KMBS. Blocking pattern holds into the weekend but confidence is increasing that the pattern will finally break. The upper low is still churning over the northeast conus though it is slowly weakening and drifting northeastward toward the Atlantic today through Saturday. Meanwhile a northern stream trough will drop through central Canada and into northern Ontario today while pulling a cold front southward toward Lake Superior by Saturday morning. Continued ridging at the surface with increasing heights aloft and thinning veil of smoke which models advertise to push eastward, should all allow temps to increase a few degrees over yesterday into the upper 70s.
Summary: A cold front will move from north to south through the Northland this afternoon into tonight.
327 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 Gradual pattern shift begins today as persistent east coast troughing finally drifts northeast into the Canadian maritimes. Despite this, a cooler night is again in store thanks to the resident dry airmass and mostly clear overnight skies with lows generally falling to around 50 outside the lakeshores/city of Detroit. Warming trend continues into Saturday as upper flow partially flattens allowing a piece of the warmer airmass over the Plains to fold into southern MI in advance of another approaching trough dropping out of northern Canada.