Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This combined with clear skies and diurnal heating means warmer and dry conditions at the surface with cooler nights. Overnight lows in the mid 40s to 50s and a few degrees warmer tomorrow night.
1121 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2023 With high pressure remaining in control today, expect abundant sunshine and just a few passing high clouds. A trough is expected to move into the Pacific Northwest this evening, but will track along the US/Canadian border through the day Tuesday. As the trough drops into the Northern Plains on Tuesday afternoon, the pressure gradient will tighten between it and the ridge building into the western CONUS.
Light northwesterly winds will be common this afternoon, with highs mostly in the low to mid 60s across the area. The greatest potential for frost looks to be generally along and north of Highway 412, with some more isolated areas possible within some of the cooler valley locations of southeast Oklahoma.
The high pressure slides eastward tomorrow, bringing the return of southerly winds tomorrow, allowing temperatures to rise into the low 80s.
Warmer and drier conditions return Tuesday through the rest of the week.
Fairly quiet tonight with upper ridging currently over the Rockies expected to move out into the Plains. Main impacts will be increasing cirrus clouds as the ridge axis approaches. With filtered sunshine and the thermal ridge over the area, highs will get into the 60s tomorrow with some spots in southeastern ND pushing the 70 mark.
Upper level ridge will build over the region today. An upper level ridge will be over the area with dry NW flow aloft thru tonight. This will allow for highs to rise into the lower to mid 70's across nern CO. The axis of a large ridge aloft will move over Colorado Tuesday morning with more zonal flow returning by the end of the day. Highs will reach the low 80s across the plains and Denver is forecast to be within a couple of degrees of the record high of 86 F set in 1926.
150 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Scattered showers will be possible on today before the area dries out from high pressure moving into the region. By Tuesday, we'll be beginning to see the start of a pattern shift as surface flow continues to back to out of the west and eventually the south as high pressure nudges into the region. Mid-level ridging will briefly translate across the area at the beginning of the period in advance of a robust system dropping through the Plains.
With building high pressure building from the west, and drier air advecting in from northwest, clouds will scatter out from west to east in the afternoon as high pressure builds from the west.
The upper trough axis, that has been in place over the past several days, will steadily shift east to the Eastern Seaboard through mid week. As this happens, the Quad State region will be on the inflection point between the departing trough and an approaching upper-level ridge. This will keep northwest flow across the area through Tuesday before the ridge axis becomes centered overhead. The best chance of seeing the greatest cloud cover will be closer to the trough axis, near the Pennyrile into southwest IN through Tuesday.
1131 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2023 1) Dry conditions with warmer temperatures expected today. Very little change to the upper pattern across the region over the next 24 hours, with the upper ridge axis located approximately along the UT and CO border. This high pressure will provide for plenty of sun, dry conditions and slightly warmer temps today for the forecast area, with highs climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s for the high valleys, and upper 60s to mid 70s for the plains. Overnight lows tonight should remain above freezing across the eastern plains.
- Temperatures warm up today, with warmer and breezy conditions expected on Tuesday.
215 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 1) Dry conditions will continue through the day Tuesday 2) A chilly night is expected tonight, with patchy frost potential over our western two tiers of counties A high pressure ridge axis will continue to translate eastward today into the day Tuesday, helping to keep dry conditions in place. The main focus in the short-term will be on a chilly night tonight as the high pressure ridge moves through, leading to light/calm winds tonight. Daytime highs on Tuesday rebound to the upper 50s east to the lower 60s west, thanks to southerly return flow.
As the high settles into the area, the pressure gradient will relax and winds will ease substantially. Temperatures should begin to plummet shortly after sunset and will continue to fall to well below normal again tonight, bottoming out in the low to mid 40s across northern areas and in the upper 40s to mid 50s across southern areas. Tomorrow and tomorrow night will be similar to today and tonight, but with less wind during the day owing to the weaker pressure gradient as the high settles over the area. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 70s, falling quickly after sunset and bottoming out again in the 40s across northern areas and lower 50s across southern areas.
It's a mostly persistence forecast in the immediate term with robust high pressure moving into the area overnight, providing a relaxation of winds. For Houston, this would be the first time the low has dropped below 50 degrees since 03/20/2023 should it occur.
Southerly flow and an upper ridge will see temps climb well above normal on Tuesday. H85 temps of +16C will translate to highs in the upper 60s to mid to upper 70s which is about 10 to 20 degrees warmer than climo averages. Leaned toward the hi-res models which keep the region mostly dry until later Tuesday evening when the upper low barrels into the Dakotas and forcing increases.
131 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 A series of low pressure troughs pass across the region early this week. High pressure builds in for the middle of the week.
232 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Light precipitation along the North Carolina and Tennessee border including light snow at the highest elevations will diminish this evening and end around midnight.
A warming trend is expected to occur through the midweek as an upper level ridge builds across the lower Mississippi Valley.
Upper level ridge to build over the Central Rockies tonight and Tuesday. Northwest flow aloft will increase Tuesday afternoon as a low rounds the top of the ridge. Tonight's low temperatures will be slightly warmer due to the warming airmass. The northwest downslope flow along with the warming airmass should push high temperatures across northeast Colorado into the lower to mid 80s. In increasing northwesterly flow aloft will be over the region Tuesday night as a 500 mb trough drops into the Dakotas.
255 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 After one trough passage this evening, another one approaches Tuesday and moves across Tuesday night. High pressure builds in for the middle of the week.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) The BRO CWFA is going to be controlled by an upper level ridge across the Four Corners region through Tuesday morning. Later during the day on Tuesday, the ridge weakens a bit as an upper level short wave moves southeast from the Southern Plains. At the surface, high pressure system over the Southern Plains moves to the southeast into the middle and east Texas coast this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Clear skies are anticipated for Tuesday night with some clouds developing overnight along the Lower Texas beaches and along the western areas of the Upper and Middle valleys. How are things along our local beaches? Well, elevated seas are likely to continue across the Lower Texas Coast through late this afternoon and therefore keeping the mention of High Risk of rip currents.
237 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 High pressure with drier and cooler air has settled in over the region with high temperatures topping out in the 70s area-wide this afternoon.
254 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Generally quiet near term forecast as our region will see the impacts of a deep layer ridge keep seasonably cool conditions over our area. Such conditions combined with dry ground will allow for cooler temps overnight. Look for lower level flow to back and become out of the W/SW by afternoon and this will support warmer temps.
Otherwise, low temperatures are forecast to dip into the low 40s.
Some low level moisture may remain trapped at the low levels so expect scattered clouds overnight. Mid level ridging will briefly dominate later Tuesday and dry weather will continue. Expect some scattered clouds during the day but some sun will bring slightly warmer temperatures for those who did get see the sun much today.
1232 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 An area of clear skies from Koochiching down into the Brainerd Lakes region has allowed rapid radiational cooling this morning with spots 10 degrees cooler than areas to the east.
(This evening through Tuesday) An upper-level ridge will remain steadfast across the area, keeping cooler north to northwesterly flow over our area through Tuesday morning.
(This evening through Tuesday) Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest and the upper level ridge over the southwestern U. Regardless, the upper level ridge will continue to result in higher thickness values over the FA leading to temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than previous days.
Some isolated pockets of lower 30s may develop, but the vast majority of locations should remain above freezing.
- Rain Returns through the latter half of the week - The long range period begins with a positively tilted ridge building over the region.
1211 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (Today through Tuesday) The BRO CWFA will remain situated between a deep mid-level trough along the Atlantic Seaboard and a 500 mb ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners area. Additionally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will create a High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches today.
(Today and tonight) Upper level troughing holds through this period. High temperatures for Monday will be in the low to mid 60s for SW GA and SE AL, while FL counties remain slightly warmer in the mid 60s to upper 60s, perhaps near 70 along the coast and in Dixie Co. Light winds and mostly clear skies should lead to low temperatures in the low to mid 40s for SW GA and SE AL.
Lows tonight are therefore expected to drop into the lower to middle 40s for the Hill Country and eastern areas with low 50s expected in the western areas where winds are expected to remain slightly higher. This should allow for some weak warm air advection and for highs tomorrow to be warmer than today, ranging from the middle 70s to near 80. Low temperatures tomorrow night will also be a bit warmer ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s under continued mostly clear skies.
Currently have northwest flow in place over the Plains with a positive oriented upper trough from the Northeast CONUS down into the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, high pressure stretches from eastern Nebraska down through central TX. By Fri, strong upper ridging will be in place from the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin, with strong northwest flow aloft remaining over the Plains.
Tonight and Tuesday High pressure is in place across the region allowing for a very pleasant day across eastern Idaho. Visible satellite imagery shows just a few high clouds streaming across the region while temperatures remain mild for his time of year with daytime highs topping out in the lower to mid 70s in the lower valleys today. Daytime highs may run above 5 - 10 degrees cooler than today but still running near or just above seasonal norms.
While the cloud cover did keep us warmer and more moist going into the evening, temperatures are still expected to dip down to the middle to upper 40s overnight. Expect likely the coolest night of the week tonight with lows dropping into the low to mid 40s across most of the area.
The ensembles are in good agreement about upper level ridging beginning to build tomorrow.
619 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) A large upper level low over the eastern half of the CONUS has been the culprit in abundant cloud cover and light rain/drizzle today. A mix of clouds and sun is expected tomorrow which should allow for afternoon highs 6 to 8 degrees warmer than today.
1) Dry conditions will continue through the day Tuesday 2) A chilly night is expected tonight, with patchy frost potential over our western two tiers of counties A high pressure ridge axis will continue to translate eastward today into the day Tuesday, helping to keep dry conditions in place. The main focus in the short-term will be on a chilly night tonight as the high pressure ridge moves through, leading to light/calm winds tonight. Daytime highs on Tuesday rebound to the upper 50s east to the lower 60s west, thanks to southerly return flow.
Wind speeds in the lowest 3000 feet remained on windy side with 23 knots for the 1000 and 2000 ft wind with 24 knots for the 3000 ft wind.
Also lowered the temperatures given light winds under high pressure. Some low level moisture may remain trapped at the low levels so expect scattered clouds overnight. Mid level ridging will briefly dominate later Tuesday and dry weather will continue. Expect some scattered clouds during the day but some sun will bring slightly warmer temperatures for those who did get see the sun much today.
517 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure across eastern MT, with warm front stretching across most of the western Dakotas. Upper level analysis shows trough along the east coast, with ridging over the intermountain west and Rockies. In general, a warm and mostly dry week is expected across the region as ridging mostly remains across the western US/Rockies.
90" with the highest values across the eastern half of the forecast area. This moisture increase today is being driven by a weak upper level low/trof over NW Sonora. Highs Tuesday will be several degrees cooler than today.
713 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) A low pressure system will continue to the east through the short term. A tight pressure gradient will also be around this low with gusting winds possible of 15-20 mph across the entire state. As the low moves east tonight, dry air will advect into the state with clouds slowly clearing through the early morning. This northerly flow will bring cold air to the state with lows overnight in the low 40s, up to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
301 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Key messages: 1) Warmer tomorrow A very nice day across the region. a weak lee trough will develop out east. Mtns, and event mtn tops may be warmer than the center of the valleys as warm air advects in from aloft, keeping the mtns in the 30s.
306 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure across eastern MT, with warm front stretching across most of the western Dakotas. Upper level analysis shows trough along the east coast, with ridging over the intermountain west and Rockies. In general, a warm and mostly dry week is expected across the region as ridging mostly remains across the western US/Rockies.
315 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2023 An upper ridge is bringing dry conditions and light winds to the Northern Rockies this afternoon. This ridge will slide eastward tonight but still dominate our weather with dry conditions and light winds.
High pressure remains centered over Arizona with the upper-level ridge axis stretching northward into Alberta, Canada. Models show minor fluctuations in the synoptic pattern, but these changes will have little impact as high pressure and mostly sunny skies persist for northern Arizona. With this high in place, the entire diurnal temperature curve has shifted well above normal for this time of year. Afternoon high temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees above average while morning lows are forecast to be roughly 5 to 10 degrees warmer than usual each day this week. Additionally, the weak pressure gradient under this ridge is allowing for light winds.
1019 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Light precipitation along the North Carolina and Tennessee border including light snow at the highest elevations will diminish this evening and end around midnight.
744 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Light precipitation along the North Carolina and Tennessee border including light snow at the highest elevations will diminish this evening and end around midnight.
14 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Tuesday) A low pressure system will continue to the east through the short term. A tight pressure gradient will also be around this low with gusting winds possible of 15-20 mph across the entire state. As the low moves east tonight, dry air will advect into the state with clouds slowly clearing through the early morning. This northerly flow will bring cold air to the state with lows overnight in the low 40s, up to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
ERVIN 1) Dry conditions will continue through the day Tuesday 2) A chilly night is expected tonight, with patchy frost potential over our western two tiers of counties A high pressure ridge axis will continue to translate eastward today into the day Tuesday, helping to keep dry conditions in place. The main focus in the short-term will be on a chilly night tonight as the high pressure ridge moves through, leading to light/calm winds tonight. Daytime highs on Tuesday rebound to the upper 50s east to the lower 60s west, thanks to southerly return flow.
624 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) An upper-level ridge will remain steadfast across the area, keeping cooler north to northwesterly flow over our area through Tuesday morning.
731 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 High pressure will slowly drift eastward the next couple days, allowing for a warming trend.
A weak cold front is moving across the region this evening. A significant warmup is still anticipated for mid to late week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region.
557 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 A warming trend is expected to occur through the midweek as an upper level ridge builds across the lower Mississippi Valley.
Past morning upper air data along with water vapor imagery continues to reveal a highly amplified pattern with a deep, positively tilted upper trough extending along the East Coast and Gulf Coast regions. Farther west, a ridge is anchored over the Intermountain West which is leaving the Central Plains stuck in a highly subsident north to northwest flow regime between the trough and ridge. Temperatures will be slightly warmer compared to the past couple mornings as the NBM probability of temperatures below freezing tonight are essentially 0%. Ahead of the wave, increasing westerlies across the Rockies will quickly deepen the lee trough with gusty southwest winds existing by afternoon. This will also bring warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s as NBM exceedance values for over 75 degrees is over 70%.
Great night to give the A/C a break and open the windows with overnight lows in the low 50s around the lake to upper 50s and lower 60s closer to the coasts. (Rest of today through Tuesday) A mild and dry northwesterly flow currently prevails over SFL as high pressure over the Central US builds eastward and low pressure over the northeast shifts out to sea. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 50s with lower 60s generally confined to the warmer spots of the east coast metro.
733 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 A trough will linger across the area this evening.
Crisp autumn evening for the local area as temps are expected to remain around 10-15 degrees below climate normals as cold early season Canadian high pressure center continues to build into the region tonight, as well as tomorrow and Tuesday night too. High pressure with drier and cooler air has settled in over the region with high temperatures topping out in the 70s area-wide this afternoon.
623 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The BRO CWFA is going to be controlled by an upper level ridge across the Four Corners region through Tuesday morning. Later during the day on Tuesday, the ridge weakens a bit as an upper level short wave moves southeast from the Southern Plains. At the surface, high pressure system over the Southern Plains moves to the southeast into the middle and east Texas coast this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Clear skies are anticipated for Tuesday night with some clouds developing overnight along the Lower Texas beaches and along the western areas of the Upper and Middle valleys. How are things along our local beaches? Well, elevated seas are likely to continue across the Lower Texas Coast through late this afternoon and therefore keeping the mention of High Risk of rip currents.
PWB A warming trend is expected to occur through the midweek as an upper level ridge builds across the lower Mississippi Valley.
551 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest and the upper level ridge over the southwestern U. Regardless, the upper level ridge will continue to result in higher thickness values over the FA leading to temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than previous days.
622 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 A broad upper trough continues to reside across the eastern CONUS with a couple of vort lobes passing over northern Illinois. Regardless, it does appear that at least some lake effect cloud cover will persist through the night and therefore hold temperatures in the low to mid- 40s for most. Mid-level ridging is expected to build into the area on Tuesday which should aid in eroding the majority of any lingering cloud cover. But if clouds do erode quicker then temperatures may over perform and be solidly in the lower 60s.
Calm weather expected with above normal temperatures as the cold front moves out of the state by Tuesday.
524 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 (This evening through Tuesday night) Today and Tuesday will see mainly a transitory ridge passing over the region brining fair weather and warming temperatures. However, embedded within the upper level flow is a short wave trough that will eject into the plains on Tuesday.
625 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Generally quiet near term forecast as our region will see the impacts of a deep layer ridge keep seasonably cool conditions over our area. Such conditions combined with dry ground will allow for cooler temps overnight. Look for lower level flow to back and become out of the W/SW by afternoon and this will support warmer temps.
1134 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 High pressure will slowly drift eastward the next couple days, allowing for a warming trend.
High pressure will remain over the region for the next couple of days.
Latest GOES-16 WV imagery shows OK and AR governed in strong northwest flow aloft as ridging remains centered upstream over the Dessert Southwest region. At the surface, high pressure has filtered into central/eastern TX. As mixing gets going later this morning, S/SSW winds will develop and will help warm temperatures up into lower-middle 70s across much of eastern OK this afternoon, with slightly cooler temperatures expected in northwestern AR -- middle-upper 60s.
1216 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The BRO CWFA is going to be controlled by an upper level ridge across the Four Corners region through Tuesday morning. Later during the day on Tuesday, the ridge weakens a bit as an upper level short wave moves southeast from the Southern Plains. At the surface, high pressure system over the Southern Plains moves to the southeast into the middle and east Texas coast this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Clear skies are anticipated for Tuesday night with some clouds developing overnight along the Lower Texas beaches and along the western areas of the Upper and Middle valleys. How are things along our local beaches? Well, elevated seas are likely to continue across the Lower Texas Coast through late this afternoon and therefore keeping the mention of High Risk of rip currents.
211 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 A trough of low pressure is moving through the Northern Rockies today. Rain showers have been accompanying the low, and will continue to do so through the morning hours. Ridge tops and high elevation locations will see wind gusts up to 50 mph.