Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry air across the area will continue tonight as high pressure over the eastern Gulf provides a W-NW wind flow across South Florida. The upper level pattern features a closed low well to the north across the Great Lakes with westerly flow aloft across the Gulf Of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. Dewpoints will mix out down into the low 60s this afternoon and evening in the dry airmass.
609 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023 Omega block continues across the conus with central and eastern Kansas situated just downstream of the ridge axis in northwest flow aloft. Some elevated moisture transport is progged into the ridge axis aloft Wednesday morning across western portions of central/south central Kansas leading to weak instability, then possibly eastward to along the I-135 corridor by the afternoon.
High pressure axis is from near Langdon to Jamestown and will move east tonight giving light winds. Large synoptic blocking pattern starts to breakdown and/or shift in a way to introduce zonal to southwesterly flow into the Northern Plains lee of upper troughing in the West.
653 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Weak mid-level ridging will remain in place across Deep South Texas through the period. Otherwise, lows tonight and Wednesday night are expected to be in the lower 70s as light east to southeasterly winds continue.
817 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023 Breezy northwest winds will continue into this evening but finally diminish as high pressure builds into the area.
600 PM MDT Tue May 2 2023 Water vapor shows omega block covering the lower 48, with upper low over the eastern Great Lakes, ridge over the Plains, and upper low along the CA coast. At the surface, ridge is centered over the central Dakotas with return flow across our western 2/3rds of zones. Thermal ridge crosses the region Wednesday with temps soaring into the 80s for most plains locations.
Late this week into the upcoming weekend, the pattern shifts to warmer and drier weather. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Mostly cloudy, cool, and at times unsettled weather will continue through the near and short term periods with the broad, anomalously strong mid-upper low overhead. Overnight low temperatures are progged to fall into the lower 40s along the river valleys (30s higher elevations).
802 PM EDT Tue May 2 2023 Slow moving low pressure will bring cool, damp weather tonight.
The upper level low will continue to move northeast into the Intermountain West, bringing unsettled weather later this week.
750 PM EDT Tue May 2 2023 Aviation -- Rain showers into tonight with clouds hanging on longer -- The core of the upper low that has brought us rain, snow, clouds and wind will shift from Southwest Ontario (north of Lake Huron and Lake Ontario) this evening to Pennsylvania by Wednesday evening. The low will gradually lose its grip on our weather as we move through the next 2 days as it slides away.
535 PM EDT Tue May 2 2023 Slow moving low pressure will bring cool, damp weather tonight.
Anderson (Issued 244 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023) Tonight through Wednesday night: The stubborn upper low that has plagued us the past couple of days should continue to spin over the lower Great Lakes Region into Wednesday night before exiting eastward. While ribbons of vorticity will spin over us aloft, and fetch from Lake Superior will continue to support mid lvl moisture and cloud cover, dry sfc air working in from high pressure just off to our west should stymie any attempts at more substantial rain shower activity into tomorrow. Overnight lows should get close to freezing.
735 PM EDT Tue May 2 2023 A welcome return to dry weather and warmer temperatures midweek.
Temperatures from near to just above the freezing mark are forecast for Wednesday morning, with the coldest temperatures in the Rockford area. Dry conditions are forecast for Wednesday, with light winds and high temperatures warming into the low-mid 60s except near Lake Michigan. South/southeast breezes will keep temperatures around 10 degrees cooler near the lake shore.
754 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023 Another clear and cool evening is ongoing across the Mid-South, with temperatures in the low to mid 60s and dew points in the upper 20s to low 30s.
A trough will bring cooler temperatures and gusty winds this week.
535 PM MDT Tue May 2 2023 Water vapor shows omega block covering the lower 48, with upper low over the eastern Great Lakes, ridge over the Plains, and upper low along the CA coast. At the surface, ridge is centered over the central Dakotas with return flow across our western 2/3rds of zones. Thermal ridge crosses the region Wednesday with temps soaring into the 80s for most plains locations.
Ridging will bring warmer weather through Wednesday with isolated thunderstorms, mainly along the Cascades.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track for a quiet and dry night with some transient high clouds and lows in the low to mid 60s. Westerly flow and dry conditions continue as a large low pressure system over the E US slow slides eastward.
(The rest of tonight) Another chilly night is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure reigns supreme at the surface. (Wednesday through Tuesday) The persistent blocking pattern will begin to break down for the middle to latter part of the week, with increasing storm chances arriving throughout the rest of the period.
With high pressure in control tonight, expect light winds and clear skies allowing for ideal radiational cooling. Overnight lows drop down into the lower 40s by daybreak. Current dewpoints are in the lower 30s along and west of I-65 and in the upper 20s east.
Less shower coverage is expected Wednesday and temperatures will be slightly warmer. An upper level low sitting just off the central CA coast continues to bring cool and unsettled conditions to the area this afternoon. Tonight and Wednesday the upper level low starts to drop south of the area. Warmer afternoon temperatures are expected with a slightly warmer airmass and some additional insolation.
-- Rain showers into tonight with clouds hanging on longer -- The core of the upper low that has brought us rain, snow, clouds and wind will shift from Southwest Ontario (north of Lake Huron and Lake Ontario) this evening to Pennsylvania by Wednesday evening. The low will gradually lose its grip on our weather as we move through the next 2 days as it slides away.
Trended temps toward the cooler side of NBM guidance with lows ranging from the mid/upper 40s across inland SE GA to the lower 50s southward near Ocala.
The anomalous trough centered over New England will slowly drift eastward today and eventually into the western Atlantic by tomorrow morning as the Omega block begins to break down. Wind fields will weaken as the high moves closer, but a few gusts up to 20 mph may still occur this afternoon. Temperatures begin trending warmer tomorrow with highs in the mid 70s north to lower 80s south.
456 AM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Strong troughing remains anchored over the eastern CONUS today leading to another breezy day.
Storms will develop off of the dryline backed up against the higher terrain out west early this afternoon, and storms then move east- northeast into SE New Mexico, the western and northern Permian Basin, and parts of the I-10 corridor. Storms should tamper off late Wednesday night, and given the increasing moisture and cloud cover, temperatures may only drop to the low 60s by Thursday morning.
The region remains under the influence of a closed low pressure system centered over the Northeast United States, with it's attendant longwave trough encompassing much of the eastern half of the United States. This, while amplified ridging encompasses much of the central half of the nation. Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface, currently centered northwest of the region, will remain in place across the forecast area as it begins sliding more to the east of the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. With some high clouds noted overhead, highs this afternoon will range from the lower 70s to around 80, while lows tonight again range from the middle 40s to middle 50.
Ridging remains in place, with temperatures about 15 degrees above normal again expected across much of the region Wednesday.
(Today through Thursday Night) Increasing southeasterly flow at the surface and ridging aloft will lead to warmer conditions across SE Texas today and Thursday with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the low 60s north of Harris County, mid 60s along the I-10 corridor, and to near 70 along the coast. Overnight low become unseasonably warm Thursday night due to the southeasterly flow and overcast skies causing low temperatures to only dip into the low to mid 70s for most of the region.
302 AM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Discussion/Marine - Rain Finally Ends Early Today - There are still just a few lingering rain showers early this morning as the last vorticity max rotates around the upper low. The main low pressure system will finally slide off to our east this morning and high pressure will take its place leading to dry weather for much of today. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than the last two days with highs peaking in the low to mid 50s.
The blocking ridge will begin to break down Thursday, as the upper low over northern CA begins to fill and move over the Desert Southwest and the Great Basin.
Air temperatures are in the low to mid 50s where clear from SE OK, across S AR and into N LA with warmer low 60s in E TX. So, overall another high pressure day with still fairly low humidity by mid afternoon and our highs in the lower 80s. So our surface winds will vary from N to E today and begin to shift weak return flow from the E and SE overnight with warmer lows ranging all through the 50s. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the low to mid 80s.
These chances will increase significantly Thu night as a SFC warm front lifts north into the state. an isolated strong storm could be seen Thu night as the warm front lifts north.
158 AM MDT Wed May 3 2023 Upper level ridge will remain in place eastern Montana today and Thursday with dry weather and warm temperatures. Late in the week, the ridge pattern will begin to pinch off, allowing a return of Pacific moisture into the region and an increase of showers and thunderstorms into the upcoming weekend.
Warmer conditions with lighter winds are expected on Wednesday as low over the Great Lakes region begins to break down, shift east and upper level ridge across the intermountain west moves east. As leading short wave breaks away from upper low across the western US, additional storms are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. While instability looks to be limited with moist adiabatic lapse rates, pwat values over one inch (near 90th percentile for this time of year), and warm cloud depths (above freezing to nearly 10K feet), should result in fairly efficient rain producing storms. Models are hinting at a potential MCS developing Thursday night, propagating southeast along the thermal ridge.
1141 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023 Another clear and cool evening is ongoing across the Mid-South, with temperatures in the low to mid 60s and dew points in the upper 20s to low 30s. Showers and thunderstorms return Thursday as a warm front lifts north.
(Today through Thursday) A cutoff upper low west of San Francisco will pinwheel about today before shifting towards SoCal on Thursday. Thermal troughing aloft and surface heating will steepen low and mid level lapse rates today, with frictional convergence around the low contributing to lifting for ascent. Deterministic model time-height forecasts suggest this moist profile will persist throughout the lowest 10 kft for today into Thursday. Also made some upward QPF (rain total) adjustments as well to bring an additional 1-2 inches to the higher peaks within the Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia mountains.
1151 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023 Omega block continues across the conus with central and eastern Kansas situated just downstream of the ridge axis in northwest flow aloft. Some elevated moisture transport is progged into the ridge axis aloft Wednesday morning across western portions of central/south central Kansas leading to weak instability, then possibly eastward to along the I-135 corridor by the afternoon.
These isolated/scattered showers will continue through the first half of the day as the last spoke of vorticity is currently moving through the trough base that still resides over our area. The gradient begins to become a little more relaxed by this evening as high pressure begins to nudge in from the southwest, pushing the trough to our east. Because of the lighter winds and clear skies, tonight will be the coldest night we have seen since the trough has been in place.
358 AM CDT Wed May 3 2023 The reign of the Omega Block pattern is coming to an end as the upper low over the Great Lakes continues to move east today. Highs this afternoon will be similar to yesterday's with slightly warmer temperatures in our western counties. The Omega Block will degrade tonight as the upper low drifts further to the east.
(Today through Thursday) Low/Mid level dry air funneled around the western side of deep- layer low pressure will preclude any shower or thunderstorm development today. Not much of a change going into Thursday besides slightly higher heights as the deep upper low begins to depart to the northeast and ridging begins moving into the eastern CONUS.
1041 PM MDT Tue May 2 2023 Water vapor shows omega block covering the lower 48, with upper low over the eastern Great Lakes, ridge over the Plains, and upper low along the CA coast. At the surface, ridge is centered over the central Dakotas with return flow across our western 2/3rds of zones. Thermal ridge crosses the region Wednesday with temps soaring into the 80s for most plains locations.
305 AM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Highly amplified upper level pattern over North America, with two large upper level troughs/lows occupying the West coast and the eastern third of the CONUS. The center of the trough/500 MB circulation impacting Southeast Michigan was situated in between the Central/Eastern Great Lakes. As much as we would like to dissipate the clouds, probably better enough moisture remains trapped in the low levels tonight as heights rebound, otherwise fog and/or frost will become an issue as winds drop off significantly and become nearly calm by Thursday morning.
304 AM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Mostly dry and cool weather is then expected through mid week as high pressure slowly builds towards the Eastern CONUS. Below normal temps overnight, with lows dropping into the low/mid 40s inland and upper 40s to mid 50s for the beaches. High pressure eventually builds over the area from the north by week's end. Cooler than average conditions are expected through most of the period before moderating back to climatological norms for the weekend.
(Now through Thursday night) Northwesterly flow aloft continues to remain in place through the period as a massive upper-level low over the northeast US weakens and shifts into the Atlantic while an upper-level ridge builds over the central US. At the surface, an expansive high pressure over the Great Plains continues to dominate our local weather as it slowly builds southeastward through the period. Subsidence from this high and PWATs remaining below an inch will keep rain chances out of the forecast through Thursday night. Lows moderate considerably and dew points quickly rise by Thursday night as a stationary front over the northern Gulf begins to lift northward as a warm front.
Ridging will bring warmer weather through Wednesday with isolated thunderstorms, mainly along the Cascades. Increasing shower and thunderstorm potential Wednesday night through Thursday with an upper low along the California coast. Showery weather and cooler temperatures with troughing into the weekend.
1224 AM CDT Wed May 3 2023 (The rest of tonight) Another chilly night is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure reigns supreme at the surface.
(Today through Thursday) Dry conditions will continue to prevail through Thursday afternoon due to surface ridging influences and dry northwesterly flow aloft.
Meantime, low pressure centered near San Francisco, will track southeast off the coast, before moving inland over central California on Thursday.
Warm temperatures will be found inland, but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. A warm dry day is expected today with warmer than normal temperatures for most of the area.
Late this week into the upcoming weekend, the pattern shifts to warmer and drier weather. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Mostly cloudy, cool, and at times unsettled weather will continue through the near and short term periods with the broad, anomalously strong mid-upper low overhead. Overnight low temperatures are progged to fall into the lower 40s along the river valleys (30s higher elevations). Some of these showers could contain small hail and maybe even a few snowflakes especially over the higher elevations. Temperatures will run cooler than average with highs on both Wednesday and Thursday in the 50s (40s higher elevations) and lows in the 40s (30s higher elevations).
1253 AM CDT Wed May 3 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Below normal temperatures - Settled conditions Settled weather in the short term will accompany slightly cooler temps due to cloud cover. A weak high amplitude ridge can be found across the central CONUS with a low pressure system around the Great Lakes region and another one just off the central CA coast. Below normal temperatures can be expected at least today and tomorrow with highs in the low to upper 80s and mostly cloudy conditions.
(Today through Thursday) The strong upper level low over the Ohio Valley and moving into New England is holding some influence interacting with a strong ridge over the Great Plains bringing cooler, drier air via northwesterly flow. Over the next two days the ridge dominates and weakens some bringing almost zonal flow over the area by the end of the week holding temperatures about where they are and maintaining the dry pattern.
High pressure will build across the region by the end of the workweek. Water vapor satellite showed a deep upper low across the Great Lakes region, and a narrow ridge stretching north from TX to the northern Rockies. At the surface, a 996 mb low was across upstate NY with a trough sagging south across the Appalachians, and a 1018 mb high across the central Plains. The surface and upper low will begin to move southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast through tonight.
Thus very high fire danger conditions continue through about 6 pm, and primarily in northeast NE where percent green values are the lowest.
A developing warm front may be able to focus widely scattered convection late in the period.
Temperatures today are expected to rise into the 50s, with cooler temperatures near the lake and highs approaching 60 in portions of central Wisconsin. The aforementioned PV anomaly will track through the region late tonight as a warm front lifts north across the western Great Lakes region.
With an inverted trough lingering over the region, periodic rain chances will then persist into the weekend.
Stigger/87 (Tonight through Thursday night) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows a stalling frontal boundary located generally along our coastline, with high pressure centered over the Plains ridging swd across the wrn Gulf region. Water vapor imagery shows mid/upper-level ridging in place from the wrn Gulf up through the lee of the Rockies, while a cutoff low over the Great Lakes maintained a nwrly flow over the region. However along and south of the boundary, namely across coastal sern TX, where dewpoints remain and are expected to linger in the lower 60s, some fog looks possible prior to sunrise. A nerly low-level flow around the high making its way ssewd from the nrn Plains will maintain dry conditions into Thursday, when the high finally moves ewd and a return flow re-develops.
The wind will take on a bit of a northerly component in the afternoon, which should keep daytime highs slightly cooler than today, with mostly 60s and isolated locations near the VA/NC border remaining in the 50s.
Northwest winds will continue to gradually weaken with time as high pressure begins to settle into the area. East to southeast winds will develop by afternoon, and should combine with the diurnal lake breeze circulation to produce a pretty aggressive east/southeasterly push of cooler air by late afternoon and early evening.
1255 AM CDT Wed May 3 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Weak mid-level ridging will remain in place across Deep South Texas through the period. Otherwise, lows tonight and Wednesday night are expected to be in the lower 70s as light east to southeasterly winds continue.
(Today and tonight) The tri-state area remains underneath northwest flow aloft, essentially in between an east coast trough and ridging through the high Plains. A weak frontal boundary passed by overnight and now high pressure will build in from the southern Plains. Highs today will be in the low 80s throughout the Florida panhandle to the upper 70s through the wiregrass.
not seeing much change with this overall weather pattern as the E/SE low- level winds persist and the mid/upper ridge across the Southern Plains continues to weaken through tomorrow. Rain chances will remain the low to none side of things (given the limited moisture return from the Gulf) for tonight through tomorrow night. Lows tonight and tomorrow night to range from the lower to mid 60s inland to around 70 along the beaches.
1143 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023 Breezy northwest winds will continue into this evening but finally diminish as high pressure builds into the area.
Low pressure will bring cooler temperatures and gusty southwest winds to most of the area this week.
Snow will continue in the ridges through tomorrow afternoon, with greatest amounts forecast across the higher elevations of eastern Tucker county, WV.
134 AM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Slow moving low pressure will bring cool, damp weather tonight. High pressure will provide mainly dry conditions and a slow warming trend Wednesday and Thursday.
327 AM EDT Wed May 3 2023 Across N America, water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a blocky flow regime, featuring a mid-level low vcnty of the CA coast, ridging across the Rockies, and a mid-level anticyclone centered near the northern Newfoundland coast. With an inverted trough lingering over the region, periodic rain chances will then persist into the weekend.
More dry air moves into the area Thursday afternoon as weak ridging builds and winds shift to the E/SE.
(Today) High pressure at the sfc continues to gradually build eastward into the Midwest/lower MS Valley regions this early Wed morning, as a benign NW flow pattern remains in place over much of the SE states.
The gyre currently over the Great Lakes will drift slowly eastward across the Northeastern states during the next couple of days, keeping the subtropical ridge suppressed to our south, preventing any deep moisture return and maintaining an unusually dry airmass at the surface and aloft across our area.
A slow moving area low pressure off the coast of California will bring gusty southerly winds to the region through much of the week. The low pressure system will move through our region on Thursday, resulting in increased precipitation chances and even a slight chance for thunderstorms.
Extreme NE GA may see some high clouds this afternoon as some clouds rotate around the back side of the main parent low pressure system still spinning over the eastern Great Lake and New England states. This low pressure will keep North and Central GA in dry Northwesterly flow in the short term.
613 AM CDT Wed May 3 2023 The reign of the Omega Block pattern is coming to an end as the upper low over the Great Lakes continues to move east today. Highs this afternoon will be similar to yesterday's with slightly warmer temperatures in our western counties. The Omega Block will degrade tonight as the upper low drifts further to the east.