Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently our CWA is rather cool with temperatures from the lower 40s east to the mid 50s west and our surface dew points were mainly in the low to mid 40s. Widespread rain, locally heavy at times will also accompany the storms along and ahead of the cold front. The severe threat will end shortly after the passage of the cold front which is expected to be southeast of our CWA by sunrise Tuesday. /22/ By Tuesday afternoon, our cold front will have made it across our region along with its colder and drier air mass. The lagging portion of this upper level trough will keep some lingering moisture closer to the Gulf Coast that may bring some isolated shower chances through mid week.
High pressure located across the Eastern Seaboard will steadily march eastward today and tonight.
High/mid clouds will continue to thicken over the forecast area today, but dry conditions will prevail due to lingering high pressure and dry air below 700 mb. The cloud cover and east winds off Lake Michigan will hold temperatures in the lower to middle 40s. Low pressure over Oklahoma will track to southeast Lower Michigan by Tuesday. As this low approaches, precipitation will spread into the southern and eastern parts of the forecast area late tonight into Tuesday morning. WSUP only shows a 15-35 percent chance of a tenth of an inch or greater QPF over the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas between 06z-18z/Tuesday (with the highest probabilities in SE MTW County), so amounts should be light.
Otherwise, dry warmer weather expected through the week. Ridging over the area will keep conditions quiet over the next several days with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 60s in the Valley, 50s and 40s as you increase in elevation throughout the week.
604 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 West winds are starting to increase in velocity out west, as the cold front starts to move in. Aloft the low pressure system sits in the Central Plains, with plenty of synoptic lift in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. The rain will also move off to the east with the trough, ending by this afternoon. The west will be in the mid 40s and the east in the lower 50s. Lows tonight will be cooler in the 20s. Aloft a big ridge over the Western CONUS moves in.
A potent ridge is building across the region today causing stable conditions with the potential for some valley fog in the mornings. But the ridge will break down soon enough that the very stable conditions won't be long lived enough to warrant any advisories.
Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front today, much more typical for mid-November. With building high pressure in the central Rockies, a tightening pressure gradient results in a fairly breezy day both today and tomorrow, especially across the northern Permian Basin and the higher elevations.
553 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 (Today and tonight) The main weather feature today will be a cold front that move through the forecast area this morning into the afternoon hours. Some patchy fog and low clouds will affect mainly southern portions of the area this morning, with decreasing clouds as the cold front moves through. Upper trough axis will swing through the area tonight, with a drier airmass filtering into the region.
As high pressure develops over the eastern United States and builds in over the surface in our area, the wind will turn easterly and become breezier.
Model trends keep a cooler and more stable environment in place over much of our FA today. However, we could still see a few showers/clouds linger into Tue as the main upr trof axis moves acrs the Mid-South.
525 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Key Messages: -Light rain continues through much of the day ahead of a cold front. -Breezy northwest winds are expected late this afternoon through the overnight period -Cooler temperatures return Tuesday H5 ridging pushes east today ahead of a cold front that will move through the area late this afternoon. Light rain will struggle to reach the ground through much of the day as dry air remains in place at the surface ahead of the cold front. Heading into Tuesday, CAA continues, with cooler highs expected in the 30s.
320 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 (Issued 315 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023) Today through Tuesday: A low pressure system ejecting from the plains coupled with high pressure over southern Quebec will drive an easterly breeze throughout today, turning northerly and eventually northwesterly on Tuesday as the low slides southeast of us. After 6pm CST this evening is when PoPs begin to ramp up, reaching 30% to 90% by Midnight (with the highest values towards the southeast CWA, closer to the low pressure).
Patchy to areas of fog lifted and will allow mostly sunny skies for the rest of today with daytime highs expected in the lower to mid 80s. Next cold front should push over the area around mid week dropping temperatures a few degrees to near normal values.
- Light snow potential for the weekend still remains on the low end (20-40%). The heavier rain over the past few hours has been across east-central and northeast Kansas as a stronger vorticity maximum within the main upper trough lifts northeast. Tuesday night should be chilly with lows in the 20s as high pressure brings clear skies and lighter winds.
Dry conditions through Tuesday morning with an upper ridge across the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures around the area are in the low to mid 40s. Behind the cold front moving through today, expect some winder conditions overnight into early Tuesday morning.
The rest of Monday ushers in a trend of warming and drying conditions with fairly calm weather expected through the week as back to back ridges dominate the weather pattern.
Patchy freezing fog across some valleys of northeast Nevada this morning which is to dissipate by late morning.
The 12z sounding at KEY highlighted rising geopotential heights at virtually all isobaric levels, consistent with a ridge bridging across the Florida Peninsula. Plenty of solar insolation should allow temperatures to easily climb into the lower 80s later this afternoon. Expansive high pressure over eastern North America will slide eastward into the Atlantic through this afternoon. As the high continues moving into the western North Atlantic through tonight, breezes will veer to the northeast to east and freshen.
359 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Key Messages: -Light rain continues through much of the day ahead of a cold front. -Breezy northwest winds are expected late this afternoon through the overnight period -Cooler temperatures return Tuesday H5 ridging pushes east today ahead of a cold front that will move through the area late this afternoon. Light rain will struggle to reach the ground through much of the day as dry air remains in place at the surface ahead of the cold front. Heading into Tuesday, CAA continues, with cooler highs expected in the 30s.
This will occur in response to a deepening low pressure system moving from the plains to the Mid Ms Valley by the end of the day. The low pressure will intensity further and move toward the Great Lakes tonight through tuesday. This intensification will help sweep a strong cold front across the area. Strong dynamics and a good surge of moisture will be positive factors for soaking rain, but the fairly rapid movement of the main band of showers across the area tonight may leave some of us on the low side of forecast values. The heaviest showers will move out by daybreak Tuesday with passage of the cold front, but additional scattered showers and gusty winds are expected as a trailing upper trough moves overhead.
An upper ridge situated just off the coast will continue to nudge inland today.
The Panhandles will be on the windy back side of the low through tonight. Winds will increase slightly again for Tuesday morning and early afternoon, but should decrease toward late in the afternoon as the low continues to move away from the Panhandles.
921 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2023 Canadian high pressure will bring dry, but cool conditions today.
210 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2023 A cold front moved through eastern Montana overnight. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler but still above normal for highs today. Upper ridge will be over the area on Tuesday with warm and dry weather.
------------------[Key Messages]------------------ * A low pressure system will bring periods of rain later Monday into Tuesday. 00 inch, with the highest amounts being over eastern and southeast Illinois. * Cooler temperatures arrive late this week and stick around through the holiday weekend. -------------------[Discussion]------------------- There is a low pressure system that will pass just off to the SE of the CWA tonight into tomorrow.
Large upper low is in the process of phasing currently over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, which will be the focus for the short-term period. The lower end of that range can be seen in our northwest, with accumulation increasing the closer we get to the river. Tuesday morning, the area of low pressure will be centered over the Ohio River valley and lifting northeast.
Additional thunderstorms will spread into southeast Oklahoma toward daybreak and into the daylight hours today in response to a warm front, currently stretching from southwest Oklahoma into North Texas, lifting into the area. A cold front will begin to move into the area around midday, with winds becoming gusty from the north and northwest and a notable decrease in temperatures and low level moisture. The thunderstorm threat will shift eastward along with the push of the cold front, although showers will persist due to wraparound moisture associated with the upper level vort max.
524 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Cold front later today with breezy conditions following behind - Small chance for precipitation across the northeast - Small Craft Advisory conditions expected this morning and again tonight A mid-level low over the Plains will move east today while the associated trough deepens and stretches down towards the Desert SW in response to a mid-level low forming over northern Mexico. This will push a front through our region this evening preceded by a prefrontal trough. Afternoon highs today will top out in the low to mid 80s, followed by overnight lows tonight ranging in the 50s.
406 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2023 Canadian high pressure will bring dry, but cool conditions today.
This pattern is indicative of a ridge of high pressure which will be the dominant feature in the short term. In addition, this strong ridge will create conditions conducive to poor mixing, leading to air stagnation in our valleys.
Key Messages: -Light rain continues through much of the day ahead of a cold front. -Breezy northwest winds are expected late this afternoon through the overnight period -Cooler temperatures return Tuesday H5 ridging pushes east today ahead of a cold front that will move through the area late this afternoon. Light rain will struggle to reach the ground through much of the day as dry air remains in place at the surface ahead of the cold front. Heading into Tuesday, CAA continues, with cooler highs expected in the 30s.
634 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2023 Canadian high pressure will bring dry, but cool conditions today.
(Today and tonight) The main weather feature today will be a cold front that move through the forecast area this morning into the afternoon hours. Some patchy fog and low clouds will affect mainly southern portions of the area this morning, with decreasing clouds as the cold front moves through. Upper trough axis will swing through the area tonight, with a drier airmass filtering into the region.
126 AM PST Mon Nov 20 2023 Gusty northeast winds over the Sierra ridges will decrease tonight and Tuesday as high pressure returns aloft.
That said, the High Wind Watch for today has been cancelled for Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties. Tuesday, an area of high pressure is expected to move over the area from the Pacific Northwest. As the high enters the region, cloud cover is expected to decrease. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the low to mid 20s.
Being under high pressure, wind should be relatively light (especially compared to last Sun/yesterday).
Large scale subsidence will move into the area by mid-morning as the short wave trough axis passes to the southeast. An upper level jet streak on the order of 150kt will move to the east as the short wave trough rotates around the larger closed low in the Central Plains. Otherwise, the only lift we will see will be from frontogenetical forcing as the front/trough plows through the region this morning. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today, or around seasonal averages, under the cold air advection from northerly winds and mostly cloudy skies.
Aloft the low pressure system sits in the Central Plains, with plenty of synoptic lift in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. The rain will also move off to the east with the trough, ending by this afternoon. The west will be in the mid 40s and the east in the lower 50s. Lows tonight will be cooler in the 20s. Aloft a big ridge over the Western CONUS moves in.
1247 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 The cold front is continuing its trek across the state, slowly inching towards our western FA. Actual cold front is back at the Montana/ND border, should reach us this afternoon/evening. Key Messages: -Light rain continues through much of the day ahead of a cold front. -Breezy northwest winds are expected late this afternoon through the overnight period -Cooler temperatures return Tuesday H5 ridging pushes east today ahead of a cold front that will move through the area late this afternoon. Light rain will struggle to reach the ground through much of the day as dry air remains in place at the surface ahead of the cold front. Heading into Tuesday, CAA continues, with cooler highs expected in the 30s.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Generally benign and quiescent weather is expected to prevail in the presence of stout upper ridging aloft. Broad surface ridging will develop along the eastern US/western Atlantic waters, and gradually build through the week. Warm temperatures can be expected today, with highs in the lower 80s across most of South Florida. Mild overnight low temperatures will be in the 60s across the interior, with warmer values in the lower 70s across the east coast.
206 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Key Messages: 1)Cold front this afternoon, with dropping temperatures into Tuesday. The cold front is slowly making its way towards us, expecting the wind shift to occur in the evening hours around 9 PM. As the cold front passes through, winds will increase from the NW, and stay higher into Tuesday morning, with gusts up to 35 MPH possible in the Devils Lake Basin.
(This evening through Tuesday) The cold front is working its way southward across west central Texas this afternoon.
Tonight/Tuesday Morning: A broad longwave trough encompasses the central U. A second and more pronounced wave is ejecting out of the lower Missouri River valley and arrives later this evening. While the low itself is not the most organized, a deformation zone is expected to wrap up across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin during the overnight. Given the lower confidence in the mesoscale pattern and how close we are to supporting snow accumulation in the soundings, will we will need to continue monitoring trends this evening.
1155 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 (The rest of today ) Upper level low continues to influence the region this morning as it slowly progresses eastward with a speed max positioned over SE OK and W-central AR. Showers and storms will decrease from west to east this afternoon and evening as the aforementioned cold front pulls in cooler and drier air behind it. However, extensive cloudiness will prevail for the remainder of the day and some showers and/ or drizzle may persist mainly for NE OK and NW AR with the upper low lingering overhead.
Turning cooler with the rain through Tuesday. becoming warmer Thanksgiving before cooling once again into the weekend. Showers with the potential for embedded thunder continues to shift from southern Missouri into the eastern Ozarks under lift provided by upper jet streak rounding the upper trough over the central Plains. As the upper low itself tracks toward central Missouri this evening. Low level saturation tied to the inverted trough combined with widespread rainfall to lead to fog and possible drizzle late this evening though at this point anticipate lift to wain quickly enough before saturation leads to fog/drizzle being impactful into Tuesday morning. Aside from lingering cloud cover and a bit cooler temperatures no impactful weather is expected with this wave on Tuesday.
1206 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 (Today and tonight) The main weather feature today will be a cold front that move through the forecast area this morning into the afternoon hours. Some patchy fog and low clouds will affect mainly southern portions of the area this morning, with decreasing clouds as the cold front moves through. Upper trough axis will swing through the area tonight, with a drier airmass filtering into the region.
TFJ A cold front moved through eastern Montana overnight. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler but still above normal for highs today. Upper ridge will be over the area on Tuesday with warm and dry weather.
A band of showers and storms along the surface cold front will bring to an end the showers and storms Tuesday morning from west to east.
(The rest of today ) Upper level low continues to influence the region this morning as it slowly progresses eastward with a speed max positioned over SE OK and W-central AR. Showers and storms will decrease from west to east this afternoon and evening as the aforementioned cold front pulls in cooler and drier air behind it. However, extensive cloudiness will prevail for the remainder of the day and some showers and/ or drizzle may persist mainly for NE OK and NW AR with the upper low lingering overhead.
The low pressure system that delivered showery and locally severe weather the past few days was heading eastward. A trailing cold front was producing a few lingering showers over far eastern Arizona which will come to an end this evening. For the remainder of the period through Thanksgiving Day dry conditions are in store as high pressure builds in from the west.
In general, sunny skies with a few clouds, with highs in the lower to mid 80.
Lows tonight drop into the upper 30s across SE NM and the higher terrain and low 40s for most other zones. The trend continues during the day on Tuesday with highs staying around ten degrees below average in the low to mid 50s area wide.
Surface analysis places broad high pressure centered in the Mid- Atlantic states, along with a frontal boundary draping across Texas and Oklahoma. After stubborn, broken cloud decks in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys through the early afternoon, cloud cover has been slowly waning over the past couple of hours.
Actual cold front is back at the Montana/ND border, should reach us this afternoon/evening. Key Messages: -Light rain continues through much of the day ahead of a cold front. -Breezy northwest winds are expected late this afternoon through the overnight period -Cooler temperatures return Tuesday H5 ridging pushes east today ahead of a cold front that will move through the area late this afternoon. Light rain will struggle to reach the ground through much of the day as dry air remains in place at the surface ahead of the cold front. Heading into Tuesday, CAA continues, with cooler highs expected in the 30s.
1131 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Low pressure currently over Oklahoma will lift northeastward over the next 24 hours. ------------------[Key Messages]------------------ * A low pressure system will bring periods of rain later Monday into Tuesday. 00 inch, with the highest amounts being over eastern and southeast Illinois. * Cooler temperatures arrive late this week and stick around through the holiday weekend. -------------------[Discussion]------------------- There is a low pressure system that will pass just off to the SE of the CWA tonight into tomorrow.
1219 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Cold front later today with breezy conditions following behind - Small chance for precipitation across the northeast - Small Craft Advisory conditions expected this morning and again tonight A mid-level low over the Plains will move east today while the associated trough deepens and stretches down towards the Desert SW in response to a mid-level low forming over northern Mexico. This will push a front through our region this evening preceded by a prefrontal trough. Afternoon highs today will top out in the low to mid 80s, followed by overnight lows tonight ranging in the 50s.
1233 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023 Canadian high pressure will bring dry, but cool conditions today.
While these cloud layers should break up through the morning, air quality in general may deteriorate through today and Tuesday under upper level high pressure and weak surface winds. Skies should clear towards late morning/early afternoon, and upper ridging will result in calm variable winds.
146 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2023 Upper flow is NW over northeast Montana this afternoon as an upper ridge is building in from the Pacific NW.
1023 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2023 IR depicts a broad upper level trough across much of the Rocky Mountain Region extending east into the Midwest. A pair of upper level lows are seen on satellite through the Great Plains with a short wave making its way through the CWA supported by a digging PFJ into the base of the aforementioned L/W trough. As the exits to the east, the gradient will relax into the Monday night hours as upper level ridging builds in from the west with increasing convergence aloft.
Cooler air behind today's cold front will bring temperatures down by about 5 to 10 degrees, giving lows in the upper 30s / lower 40s tomorrow morning and highs in the 50s tomorrow afternoon.
These showers are expected to evaporate by this afternoon, with the main push of steady showers expected to move in late this evening as the low pressure propagates into Illinois. Concern for a few snowflakes overnight in central Wisconsin remains, with dry air and cooler temperatures working into the boundary layer allowing for some snowflakes to survive the shallow melting layer at the surface. MH (Issued 315 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023) Today through Tuesday: A low pressure system ejecting from the plains coupled with high pressure over southern Quebec will drive an easterly breeze throughout today, turning northerly and eventually northwesterly on Tuesday as the low slides southeast of us. After 6pm CST this evening is when PoPs begin to ramp up, reaching 30% to 90% by Midnight (with the highest values towards the southeast CWA, closer to the low pressure).
204 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Low pressure currently over Oklahoma will lift northeastward over the next 24 hours. As the low lifts northeastward into the Wabash River Valley by Tuesday morning, the steady rain will diminish to scattered showers along/east of I-57.
An upper level ridge building along the West Coast will keep skies mostly sunny through the day with temperatures near normal.
Numerical models suggest that an amplifying ridge of high pressure to our west will shift east overnight with clearing skies and colder temperatures. The ridge remains strong over the region Tuesday but begins to weaken late Tuesday night as a Pacific disturbance shears east through the Vancouver Island region.
N/NW winds remain breezy the rest of the day and into this evening behind a cold front/area of low pressure currently pushing across SE OK. Deterministic models show the vort max drifting over NE OK/NW AR Tuesday afternoon/evening, with the GFS even showing a cut-off low developing overhead as a result. At the surface, a 1027-1028mb ridge will slide over the Central Plains during the afternoon, causing local winds to remain breezy/gusty. Clouds should gradually clear Tuesday evening/night as the upper- level trough axis shifts east of the region and dry northwest flow aloft filters in.
1255 PM PST Mon Nov 20 2023 Dry and warmer weather expected through the week.