Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1156 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 A generally dry and stable environment will hold this taf period, as an expansive ridge of high pressure maintains control. Longwave pattern features an amplifying ridge centered over the MS River and extending northward into the Great Lakes and Midwest with a deepening trough over the western conus. The trough tries to cut off from the jet today which is located well north across the mid latitudes of Canada, but the connection reemerges early in the week causing the trough to slowly work eastward through the Plains this week. Dry air advection in the mid levels with the ridge building into the area has quickly scoured out the early day cloud debris pushed into the area from the convection across northern MI. The first half of the new week will feature ridging over the region.
(Today and tonight) Another hot and dry day expected today in advance of approaching western trough. As we go into this evening trough axis will swing through the four corners area into Colorado and New Mexico.
325 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Dry and unseasonably warm weather is expected through the middle of the week under high pressure.
Storms look to move in from the west and further develop along the higher terrain across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and push to the north-northeast across SE NM and areas along the Pecos River Valley during the afternoon. Increasing shear, with the approaching upper level low, and increasing instability through daytime heating lead to favorable enough conditions for some storms to become severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.
High pressure then rebuilds over the Pacific Northwest around mid-week and persists through the remainder of the week, maintaining dry conditions and warming temperatures.
Monday night and Tuesday look very similar to today, albeit just a hair cooler as the upper level ridge overhead begins weakening ahead of an approaching upper trough over the Plains.
- On Tuesday a cold front will move from west to east with breezy southerly winds ahead of the front, and showers/thunderstorms along and behind it.
329 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected through mid week, as high pressure holds over the eastern United States.
Mid-level flow will remain characterized by a weakening Omega block: bookend closed lows off the Atlantic Coast and across the Pac-NW and a high amplitude ridge between. Much of CONUS east of the Mississippi will be situated under the aforementioned ridging, and as a result the column is expected to be quite dry well into mid- week (even as the eastern ridge shifts more fully off the Eastern Seaboard and the block breaks moving into Tuesday). High and low temperatures through tomorrow will effectively be a persistence forecast, with only 1-2 degree fluctuations expected each day thanks to the stagnant airmass -- highs in the low-to-mid- 80s, and lows near 60 (about 5-7 degrees above average for early October).
333 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure will remain over the region through mid week.
205 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure maintains dry and sunny weather through midweek, with river valley fog developing each night.
(Today) Ridging centered over SE CONUS remains in place for today and will continue to be the primary influence on the forecast.
1116 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 Outside of localized morning river valley fog, dry weather and seasonably warm temperature is expected through mid week under the influence of high pressure.
223 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Key Message: 1) Continued summer-like warmth today Strong high pressure stretching from the Northeast into the southern Great Plains will keep the area in southerly flow aloft and at the surface, allowing for persistence of summer-like warm across the Midwest.
(Today and tonight) The region will be situated between an upper level ridge to our west and an upper level trough digging south across the western Atlantic Ocean today. At the surface, high pressure across nearly the entire eastern third of the country will keep breezy northeasterly and easterly flow in place through the day.
141 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Dry high pressure will dominate the region through the week. A cold front approaches late week with much cooler weather for the weekend. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s. The upper ridge begins to break down by the end of the week as an upper trough digs into the Great Lakes.
Current readings are in the upper 70s, however, unlike this time yesterday, heat index values are in the lower to mid 90s.
Otherwise high pressure continues to remain firmly in place overhead supporting another clear or mostly clear day with light southerly winds. With the low level high centered east of the forecast area on Tuesday, light southerly return flow will drive slightly warmer air across the area and will support highs well into the 80s.
639 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure will keep warm and dry conditions across the region into midweek.
Afternoon highs today reach the lower to middle 80s.
631 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure remains over the Eastern CONUS.
636 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure will build across the region tonight.
414 AM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Synoptic Overview: A deep/broad upper level trough over the Intermountain West will slowly progress eastward across the 4-Corners (today), central Rockies (tonight) and adjacent High Plains (Tuesday). as the aforementioned trough progresses slowly eastward across the 4-Corners. Tue-Tue Night: 00Z guidance suggests that the lee cyclone in Colorado will progress eastward into Kansas and Nebraska late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST -- the 06Z runs, in particular -- suggest a variety of potential scenarios: [1] The 06Z HRRR, for example, suggests that convective development will occur well before peak heating invof both [1] the upper wave itself (in northeast CO and the NE Panhandle) and the lee cyclone /low-level convergence zone/ over northwest KS.
742 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Dry and unseasonably warm weather is expected through the middle of the week under high pressure.
Key Message: 1) Continued summer-like warmth today Strong high pressure stretching from the Northeast into the southern Great Plains will keep the area in southerly flow aloft and at the surface, allowing for persistence of summer-like warm across the Midwest.
1056 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Dry high pressure will dominate the region through the week. A cold front approaches late week with much cooler weather for the weekend. Temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal today with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Lows mainly in the upper 50s with sheltered areas a little cooler. The axis of an upper level ridge will remain west of the area in the near term. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s for most locations. Upper level ridging begins to break down late this week as an upper trough digs into the Great Lakes region. This pattern of troughing to our west supports moisture increases over the Southeast as southerly flow develops.
411 AM MST Mon Oct 2 2023 A longwave trough will allow cooler temperatures and occasional breezy conditions to continue across Arizona today. A delayed warming trend will occur the latter half of the week as a ridge builds over the western CONUS. A closed low pressure system centered over southern Nevada and far northwest Arizona this morning will continue to migrate eastward today. The low level cumulus clouds over the region currently are expected to clear out later this afternoon. With a relatively slow progression, the trough axis will be over Arizona later this evening allowing temperatures to be below normal again today. The cooler temperatures will last through early this week, with highs anticipated to be between 82-87 degrees across the lower deserts this afternoon.
636 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure prevails through most of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal. Moisture limited cold front will move across late week, bringing the biggest dose of fall seen so far this season. Deep high pressure will maintain a dry, cloud-free forecast for the start of the work week.
517 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 (Today and tonight) Another hot and dry day expected today in advance of approaching western trough. As we go into this evening trough axis will swing through the four corners area into Colorado and New Mexico.
The low pressure system responsible for our cooler, wetter weather will continue to impact SE Idaho today and Tuesday. The other hazard we're contending with this morning is fog, which is not surprising at all given recent rainfall and how saturated we are in the low-levels.
1055 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Dry and unseasonably warm weather is expected through the middle of the week under high pressure.
523 AM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Upper level low near Las Vegas will weaken as it lifts northeast across the Great Basin today and into Montana tonight. Highs today will be another notch lower with slightly cooler air aloft moving into Colorado. Highs will remain well above normal though across northeast Colorado with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Water vapor satellite imagery showing an area of lift over Utah and western Colorado ahead of the low. A new round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible after midnight as the trough axis and cold front begin to push through central Colorado.
The poleward draw of moisture in response to the longwave trough has caused surface dew points in eastern Arizona to rise 5 to 10 degrees over the past 24 hours. The slow moving trough will bring another day of gusty winds, generally Tucson eastward and strongest closest to the New Mexico border.
645 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected through mid week, as high pressure holds over the eastern United States.
However, known flood-prone locations will need to be monitored throughout this event as some of the higher rainfall totals within the latest ensemble run have the potential to cause some localized flooding.
643 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure will remain over the region through mid week.
Cooler weather will persist with overnight lows expected to be near or below freezing for most locations above 6000 feet Tuesday morning. Pressure gradients will remain strong enough for 40+ mph wind gusts over and to the northeast of the highest peaks in the White Mountains region where a Wind Advisory is in effect. As result of the drier air and strong radiational cooling looking at a decent area of below freezing temperatures above elevations of 6000 feet across northern Arizona. As the current trough moves eastward look for winds to turn northwesterly on Tuesday. Winds become more northeast to easterly later in the week as the trough heads further east.
349 AM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Upper level low near Las Vegas will weaken as it lifts northeast across the Great Basin today and into Montana tonight. Highs today will be another notch lower with slightly cooler air aloft moving into Colorado. Highs will remain well above normal though across northeast Colorado with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Water vapor satellite imagery showing an area of lift over Utah and western Colorado ahead of the low. A new round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible after midnight as the trough axis and cold front begin to push through central Colorado.
628 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 (Today and tonight) Southwest flow aloft will persist across the area again today, as an upper trough remains across the Rockies.
654 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 (Today and tonight) The region will be situated between an upper level ridge to our west and an upper level trough digging south across the western Atlantic Ocean today. At the surface, high pressure across nearly the entire eastern third of the country will keep breezy northeasterly and easterly flow in place through the day.
1023 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure will keep warm and dry conditions across the region into midweek.
337 AM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Cooler temperatures and precipitation are expected today before a warming and drying trend develops through the end of the week.
A round of rain is likely to end the week followed by cooler and breezy conditions with rain showers downwind of Lake Erie.
630 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 A large upper level high pressure ridge will remain over the Mississippi River Valley the next several days, resulting in continued summer-like high temperatures across the Midsouth.
1000 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure prevails through most of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal. Moisture limited cold front will move across late week, bringing the biggest dose of fall seen so far this season. Deep high pressure will maintain a dry, cloud-free forecast for the start of the work week.
733 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure maintains dry and sunny weather through midweek, with river valley fog developing each night.
Lower elevations to the east of Billings have about a 30-50% chance for half an inch with higher amounts in the higher elevations.
1005 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Dry high pressure will remain in place through the majority of the workweek.
(Rest of Today) A strong ridge of high pressure is centered directly over the Tennessee Valley today, promoting mostly clear and dry weather.
215 AM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Cooler temperatures and precipitation are expected today before a warming and drying trend develops through the end of the week.
Solar heating and mixing down from 850 millibars per BUFKIT soundings, should allow temperatures to top out in the mid 80s, if not slightly warmer, near 15 degrees above normal for early October. - Sunny and Warm today - Clear and mild tonight Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes. A very strong ridge was in place, stretching from the Lower Mississippi valley, across Illinois to the Great Lakes.
943 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure will remain over the region through mid week.
625 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 (Today) Ridging centered over SE CONUS remains in place for today and will continue to be the primary influence on the forecast.
726 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 An expansive area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build east over the region through the midweek period, bringing mainly clear skies, light wind and above to much above normal daytime temperatures.
and Tuesday 500mb ridge across the western Great Lakes will bring record or near record heat today and Tuesday with highs in the 80s away from Lake Michigan. The ridge is expected to shift east of the area by the middle of the week. 925mb temperatures are slightly cooler than yesterday, so high temperatures today will be at or slightly below the high temperatures from yesterday.
542 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Dry and unseasonably warm weather is expected through the middle of the week under high pressure.
Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges, especially during the times of high tide. The weak front will slide southward through the Florida Keys late in the afternoon and evening, as high pressure builds over the southeastern United States.
A large upper level high pressure ridge will remain over the Mississippi River Valley the next several days, resulting in continued summer-like high temperatures across the Midsouth.
A longwave trough will allow cooler temperatures and occasional breezy conditions to continue across Arizona today. A delayed warming trend will occur the latter half of the week as a ridge builds over the western CONUS. A closed low pressure system centered over southern Nevada and far northwest Arizona this morning will continue to migrate eastward today. The low level cumulus clouds over the region currently are expected to clear out later this afternoon. With a relatively slow progression, the trough axis will be over Arizona later this evening allowing temperatures to be below normal again today. The cooler temperatures will last through early this week, with highs anticipated to be between 82-87 degrees across the lower deserts this afternoon.
The weekend trough is slowly shifting further east as ridging from the eastern Pacific begins to build into NorCal.
(Today and tonight) Southwest flow aloft will persist across the area again today, as an upper trough remains across the Rockies.
Dry conditions will continue for the next few days under high pressure. Monday night and Tuesday look very similar to today, albeit just a hair cooler as the upper level ridge overhead begins weakening ahead of an approaching upper trough over the Plains.
Cool temperatures continue across northern California and southern Oregon this morning under the back side of an upper trough. The highest rainfall totals are forecast to be in eastern Douglas County (0. An upper ridge building over the Pacific will guide conditions from midweek and into the weekend.
600 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Dry high pressure will remain in place through the majority of the workweek.
930 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected through mid week, as high pressure holds over the eastern United States.
- Sunny and Warm today - Clear and mild tonight Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes. A very strong ridge was in place, stretching from the Lower Mississippi valley, across Illinois to the Great Lakes.
129 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure maintains dry and sunny weather through midweek, with river valley fog developing each night.
Morning satellite imagery showing an upper trough positioned over eastern Idaho. Surface winds: west less than 10 kt becoming W-NW 10- 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, except W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the Lower Snake River Plain this afternoon.
1221 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 (Today and tonight) Southwest flow aloft will persist across the area again today, as an upper trough remains across the Rockies.
A high amplitude trough of low pressure over the Great Basin and a short wave trough moving through the Pacific Northwest will be the main players in the weather for today and tonight. As the deeper trough that brought ample rain to much of the Northern Rockies over the weekend continues east this afternoon, upper level flow will transition to northwesterly. Relatively warm temperatures will keep snow on only the highest peaks.
144 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Favorable aviation conditions continue through the remainder of the daylight hours with VFR SKC and light southerly winds maintained by high pressure anchored over Lake Erie. With the low level high centered east of the forecast area on Tuesday, light southerly return flow will drive slightly warmer air across the area and will support highs well into the 80s.
The trough currently over NorCal continues to move eastward and out of the area, bringing breezy northerly winds to the Sacramento Valley as it goes. Satellite images show signs of the low moving out as well, with some clouds still lingering over the Sierra and some high clouds over the entire area. As the ridge to the west begins to expand over the Pacific Northwest and heights over NorCal begin to rise, temperatures will continue to increase through the week. Conditions will be dry and warm, and valley highs will top out in the high 80s to low 90s towards the end of the week.
(This evening through Tuesday) Water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough over Nevada/Colorado pushing east toward the CWA giving way to strong southwesterly winds aloft bringing mid to upper level moisture over the region for the rest of today and into tomorrow. South southeasterly winds near the surface as a result of the high pressure system sitting over the Great Lakes region will aid in keeping moisture at the surface with dewpoints in the upper 50s to upper 60s for the rest of today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be similar to today with highs in the lower to mid 80s across the South Plains and upper 80s across the Rolling Plains.
The approaching cold front will remain well to the west of our area through Tuesday night, but this approaching system will serve to increase the pressure gradient over our region, especially Iowa. The low relative humidity, combined with the 10 to 20 mph south winds and unharvested dry crops will bring a "very high" AG GFDI forecast for Iowa Tuesday afternoon.
(Tonight) High pressure remains over the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, with a nice Cu field well established over the area.
Cooler weather will persist with overnight lows expected to be near or below freezing for most locations above 6000 feet Tuesday morning. Scattered clouds across much of northern Arizona continue to form and move to the north-northeast as the upper-level trough slowly attempts to progress eastward. Pressure gradients will remain strong enough for 40+ mph wind gusts over and to the northeast of the highest peaks in the White Mountains region where a Wind Advisory is in effect. As result of the drier air and strong radiational cooling looking at a decent area of below freezing temperatures above elevations of 6000 feet across northern Arizona by early Tuesday morning. As the current trough moves eastward look for winds to turn northwesterly on Tuesday. Winds become more northeast to easterly later in the week as the trough heads further east.
314 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure will persist through mid-week.
As the low shifts northeast and away from southeast Idaho, we will see additional rain and snow showers rush in from the northwest overnight and Tuesday morning. 20 inches for the next 36 hours, EXCEPT for the higher peaks across the South Hills/Albion Mountains where we should see 0. As the upper trough that brought several days of active weather departs to the northeast, high pressure off the west coast will build further inland through the weekend.
High pressure will build across the Southeast in the wake of the frontal passage. As the high will rush in a largely modified continental air mass, expect little changes in terms of maximum and minimum temperatures behind the front.
Discussion: Persistence forecast is the name of the game again today with the Omega blocking pattern overhead leading to above normal temperatures and generally calm weather.
100 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected through mid week, as high pressure holds over the eastern United States.
Although, lower level temps seem just a touch cooler than yesterday. Very expansive area of stratus west of the front, along with cooler temps and even some fog. The initial front will almost wash out this afternoon as a stronger warm front extends northeast from a Colorado low.
105 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure prevails through most of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal. Moisture limited cold front will move across late week, bringing the biggest dose of fall seen so far this season. Deep high pressure will maintain a dry, cloud-free forecast for the start of the work week.
351 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 Key Messages: - Warmer temps to continue through Tuesday before a cold front approaches from the west, bringing the next chance for rain.
Subsidence and drying associated with these features is leading to temperatures warming into the lower 90s today and tomorrow, afternoon RH values of 25-35 percent, and only scattered afternoon fair weather cumulus around the region. Pockets of low moisture content have been drifting westward across the Gulf Coast region around the southern side of the high pressure system, with PWAT values below 0. 8 inches corresponding generally with surface dew points in the lower to mid 50s.
1238 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Easterlies are still quite agressive but as the inverted trough over the western gulf moves west the gradient will weaken and winds will ease a bit. High pressure remains dominate over the area and this will remain the case into mid week.
140 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 High pressure will keep warm and dry conditions across the region into midweek.