Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Elsewhere another warm day on tap even with serly low level flow as some feedback likely this aftn amidst good mixing within low level thermal ridge and expected to persist through Fri as well. Will generally hedge toward warmer side of guidance temps given expected insolation yielding deeper mixing depths within persisting warm thermal ridge. High clouds will continue to impact both sites through the period, with the greatest coverage at KSBN given the proximity to the slow moving upper low that will be drifting north across IL.
1244 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Mid level ridge axis will shift east of the area tonight, with west to southwest flow aloft developing in advance of an upper level trough over western portions of the CONUS. A weaker thermal ridge, coupled with the increase in cloud cover will result in slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow, with highs ranging from the lower 90s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 90s elsewhere. Lows tonight will be mainly in the low to mid 70s.
A closed low pressure system continues to spin over eastern Oregon and western Idaho this morning, producing widespread rainshowers over the Northern Rockies. The low pressure system to our southwest has also aided in the development of a strong east- northeast pressure gradient, that has produced gusty northeast winds across the region, especially in western Montana. With the location of the low pressure center to our southwest, it has also opened the door for a cooler Canadian airmass to spill over the divide into western Montana. Energy from the low pressure system will be ejected eastward over the Yellowstone region late tonight and into Friday.
Early morning GOES products illustrate the northward slog of a cut-off low currently positioned over central Illinois with mid and high cloud debris glancing the Lower Michigan.
High pressure will be in control at the surface and a trough across the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile a low pressure system off the Atlantic coast should continue to move in a northerly direction. This low will provide an easterly flow to the southeast today, so there is a chance that some of the systems energy will break off and then slide into the southeastern portions of Central Alabama by the afternoon. On Friday, looks like we will dry once again as the low will likely be providing a more northeasterly flow and dry weather.
Temps still expected in the lower to mid 80s Today and Friday with lows in the 60s and some upper 50s in the NE GA mountains.
1113 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Updated precipitation chances for this evening mainly along the Highway 50 corridor from Salida to Canon City through around 7 PM. On Thursday, upper level low pressure pushes into the nrn Great Basin, with increasing swly flow aloft across CO. Over the higher terrain it will be quite windy, but fuels are not conducive for Red Flag conditions (except Fremont county).
That said, afternoon temperature maximums in the low-to-mid 90s will fall toward milder minimums in the upper 60s/lower 70s tonight before warming back up toward milder maximums (moderated by precipitation) into the low 80s/low 90s range tomorrow. /16/ (Friday Night through Thursday) An upper-level ridge extending from northern Mexico through northeast Texas into Arkansas at the start of the period to maintain somewhat stable conditions across the region on Friday night.
325 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Fair dry weather will continue through the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds over the region. As the high pushes east, winds will shift to be southeast and support warm air to advect into the area with highs climbing up into the low to mid 70s. High pressure centered near Nova Scotia Friday night will reach back across the Lower Great Lakes to guarantee nothing more than some cirrus clouds to start the weekend.
Upper low that is centered over Oregon today will slowly drift into Idaho and Nevada on Friday. Moisture circulating around this low will bring rain with embedded thunderstorms mainly south of the Missouri River tonight and to the entire forecast area on Friday.
Temperatures will likely be in the low 80s in the east with upper 70s across areas that experience more cloud cover and rain. General high pressure should eat away at the strength of this disturbance into Thursday night and Friday morning with 500mb height rises helping clear out any precipitation.
1248 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week, keeping it mainly dry with river valley fog at night. A high pressure system will remain over the area today and tonight.
1205 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday night) Daytime heating has finally resulted in formation of a few fair weather cumulus over and near the higher country of southwest Texas. Otherwise, very warm to hot conditions were occurring over the greater Permian Basin with 2 PM temperatures rising through 80s and 90s (cooler in the higher elevations). An upper level disturbance moving across the higher terrain of Mexico, south of New Mexico should start the development of showers and thunderstorms over the next few hours. This activity should begin impacting parts of the higher terrain of SE New Mexico in the late evening, with it progressing in a west to east manner during the course of the night. With more clouds and rain chances, high temperatures on Thursday should be slightly cooler than readings today.
149 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure to dominate with dry weather and near average temps through Thursday.
While nudging slowly eastward, this pattern doesn't change dramatically through daybreak but thereafter there should be a trend for more veering of the low level flow shifting the area of moisture convergence east of the CWA. Otherwise background weak large scale forcing will persist on a axis from eastern IL into SE MO on the periphery of the upper trof.
201 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure remains in control through Friday.
344 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure remains in control through Friday.
336 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Made some minor adjustments to the low temperatures based on the latest trends in observations. 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over eastern Kentucky - centered to the northeast. The high will also be responsible for light to calm winds through the night while helping to set up a small to moderate ridge and valley temperature split. Have updated the forecast to fine tune the fog development and also the ridge and valley temperatures differences overnight. Thursday night, the weak stagnant flow becomes increasingly northwesterly as the region lies between building upper ridging to the west and a deepening upper low along the Southeast US coastline. Otherwise, mid- and high- level cloudiness will be on the increase as the upper-level trough splits to the west.
Low pressure off the southeastern coast of the United States will spread moisture north this weekend. With just a bit of moisture remaining in the low levels, some cloud development is likely later this afternoon. The calm conditions continue into this evening as high pressure moves overhead.
A mid-level trough is bringing decent mid-level moisture into the mid-Mississippi Valley region. Areas with cloud coverage will see lows in the low 60s. The mid-level trough will weaken today and leave the area in a weak high pressure regime. 1000-850mb thicknesses show the region warming into the low 80s in rural areas and mid-80s in more urban areas. In the upper levels, the mean flow will dive south, west of the the Lower Ohio Valley, as it diverts around a closed low near the Carolinas on Friday. As the low pressure system moves up the East Coast, a low pressure system will move northeast towards North Dakota.
342 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure remains in control through Friday.
This is in response to 1)a weak H5 trough traversing the northwesterly flow around the eastern periphery of the upper high across south Texas and northern Mexico, and 2) the natural diurnal cycle. As the trough continues to exit stage east, some decrease in rain chances can be anticipated through today. An upper level low over the Atlantic Coast takes shape and parallels the east coast from Georgia through North Carolina. This will allow heights to gradually increase aloft as high pressure spreads eastward. At the same time, another upper level impulse will traverse the eastern periphery of the ridge. Temperatures looks to remain above climo through the short term, especially with heights slowly rising with the upper low lifting north and east near the Carolina coast allowing for the ridge to continue to build into the region.
152 AM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Current surface map places trough from northeastern South Dakota to just south of the Black Hills. Pacific Northwest upper low continues to dig towards the Great Basin. Buoyancy/shear favorable for another round of severe thunderstorms, especially along the warm front in the vicinity of South Dakota/Nebraska border.
Weak H5 trough will continue to move across the region this evening but any precipitation is rapidly decreasing, not that it was heavy to begin with. Visible imagery already showing clearing as the H5 trough lifts out. Meanwhile, upper low will be dropping into the Pacific Northwest before it kicks out to the east at the conclusion of the forecast period. This in turn will allow ridging to redevelop over the central and southern plains.
(Today) Based on southeastern CONUS radar trends, better forcing with the upper low continues to be to our northwest this morning (over the Illinois area south into western TN). However, models continue to depict this upper low and trough axis to weaken and shift northward towards the Great Lakes region early this morning. This should keep highs a bit cooler than they could be, mainly in the 80 to 85 degree range.
426 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 An area of low pressure is expected to develop along the remnant boundary over the eastern Atlantic waters through the day today as a digging trough aloft cuts off just offshore of the Carolinas. As this low continues to develop and lift off to the NE, drier air on the back side of the system will move over the area and lower rain chances through the weekend as well as bring some slightly cooler temps, especially for the Nature Coast. Temperatures go from the lower 90s to the upper 80s to around 90 for highs, and lows fall from the upper 60s to mid 70s, to the lower to mid 60s north and upper 60s to lower 70s central and south.
(Today and tonight) A large upper level low is situated over the northwestern U. with ridging over Texas and the central plains, and general troughing over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS. As far as temperatures go, we will remain warmer than normal today, with highs ranging from around 90 into the upper 90s, and overnight lows will again be muggy, mainly in the 70s.
The responsible storm system and upper level low pressure center is quite strong and large as it sweeps through the Great Basin and the Central and Northern Rockies.
Have prob30 in the northern terminals, and VCTS at the southern ones with the highest rain chances south.
Last night, showers and thunderstorms formed in the Gulf Waters and spread southwards towards the Lower Keys. Multiple boundary collisions occurred, which resulted in a brief, but potent storm popping up across a majority of the Lower Keys. For today, another wet day is expected as the mid-upper level trough responsible for the past few active weather days will still be in place, as will an abundance of atmospheric moisture. Heading into the weekend, troughiness associated with the low pressure system will linger across the region. Unsettled weather will return to the area as the drier airmass will be quickly replaced with deep tropical moisture as the low lifts northward.
Temperatures this morning were starting out in the lower 60s to lower 70s. More sunshine should be noted over Ern AR today, thus warmer expected high temperatures there. Temperatures on Friday are anticipated to be cooler thanks to clouds and scattered precipitation.
957 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Water vapor shows large trof evolving over the western CONUS with main upper low over the Pac NW. Temps are in the low 60s in far northwest SD to near 90 south-central SD. On Thursday, upper low will dig slightly into the Great Basin and become nearly cut-off. Best corridor of MLCAPE near and above 1000J/kg will extend along the developing inverted trof into central SD with a bit more shear for a few strong to severe storms. On Friday, upper low shifts into far western WY by late afternoon, with a very robust wave ejecting through the Northern Plains.
210 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure is expected to maintain its influence over the region through at least Friday before a trough slides across the local area over the weekend. These clouds likely just limit the coverage of any fog that can develop and keep temperatures slightly warmer overnight. Easterly low level flow will assist with drying the lower levels of the atmosphere so no rain is expected Thursday into Thursday night.
(Today through Friday) South Central Texas will remain under the influence of the northern periphery of the upper level ridge axis through the short term forecast leading to continued warm conditions.
Mid level ridging is already showing signs of breaking down given the overnight shower and Tstorm activity. With lower heights today a few degrees will be shaved off high temperatures with most locations staying in the low to mid 90s. Another round of storms is expected to develop this afternoon mainly over the higher terrain initially before spreading east and north with time. Ridging builds back across the area Friday helping to cap convection and send temperatures back well above normal.
Later this afternoon, subsidence on the backside of the H500 perturbation from earlier this morning should help to scatter cloud cover and warm up the Panhandles for highs today ranging from the lower 80s in the east to near 90 degrees in the west. A low amplitude ridge begins to build northeast from northern Mexico tomorrow bringing dry conditions back into the Panhandles for tomorrow.
242 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Key Messages: - Temperatures remain on the warm side today in the low 80s, which is around 10 degrees above normal highs for this time of year.
1227 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) An upper-level ridge centered over western Texas continues to provide broad subsidence and dry mid-level flow, hampering convection over Deep South Texas. Heat index values are anticipated to reach 105-110, with the highest values expected in Cameron County.
Our region will be caught in the middle of deepening trough over the Pacific Northwest & progged upper low development off the Atlantic seaboard near the Carolinas. Leaned towards NBM, with some influence of highs yesterday, in the low 90s across southwest half while in the upper 80s to the northeast. Aftn minimum humidities into the low to mid 30% range are again likely across central to southern portions of the area. 5 inches & dewpoints climbing into the low-mid 60s), a nice night is expected. /DC/ Mid-level ridging centered over the ArkLaMiss will help suppress widespread rain chances Friday. However, the ridge will weaken just a tad Fri afternoon allowing for some showers across our west and northwestern zones through early evening. With the ridge in place, elevated wildfire danger will be possible Friday due to humidity values being low.
146 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Fair dry weather will continue through the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds over the region. As the high pushes east, winds will shift to be southeast and support warm air to advect into the area with highs climbing up into the low to mid 70s.
Water vapor imagery shows the digging upper trough across the Pacific NW, while closer to home, there appears to be a weak wave at 700mb moving across the High Plains. So, this is where the highest POPs are aligned in the forecast through 00Z Friday.
(Today and tonight) Upper level low pressure system sits to our northwest over Oregon with a ridge to the south over Mexico. Isentropic lift ahead of the trough will bring in low-level moisture from the Gulf.
340 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 A pesky upper trough will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms as it lifts northward through midday.
Rua (Tonight through Friday night) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off the mid-Atlantic coastline ridging swwd and maintaining our serly low-level flow off the Gulf. Water vapor imagery shows the area remaining under a nwrly flow aloft between a ridge axis extending from nrn Mexico through the Four Corners and troffing from the Mississippi Valley to the n-cntl Gulf.
The latest guidance suggests that rain will get pushed westward during the day Friday, as high pressure to our east strengthens a bit.
Current surface analysis places trough/boundary stretching from central South Dakota into north central Minnesota. An unsettled day is expected over the region as a variety of impulses ejecting from aforementioned upper low to the west continue to lift through the area. For tonight, upper low starts what will become its gradual migration towards the east. Aforementioned upper low continues its gradual eastward migration, moving over the Rockies late Friday, before meandering through the northern plains this weekend.
A large upper trough with a closed low over the Western U. Although increasing cirrus will be gradually dirtying up our ridge from west to east, heating across central through southcentral Oklahoma be sufficient to steepen those mid-level lapse rates resulting in 2000-3000 J/kg of surface based CAPE by late afternoon. Along with diurnal heating, a warm front stalled along the Red River may provide additional warm advection/forcing to further mix and destabilize the moist boundary layer. For our CWA, the highest risk for flooding would be across southeast into portions of southcentral and eastcentral Oklahoma. The highest risk area for severe storms will be southcentral through southeast Oklahoma with a lower (marginal) risk into central Oklahoma.
An area of low pressure is expected to develop along the remnant boundary over the eastern Atlantic waters through the day today as a digging trough aloft cuts off just offshore of the Carolinas. As this low continues to develop and lift off to the NE, drier air on the back side of the system will move over the area and lower rain chances through the weekend as well as bring some slightly cooler temps, especially for the Nature Coast. Temperatures go from the lower 90s to the upper 80s to around 90 for highs, and lows fall from the upper 60s to mid 70s, to the lower to mid 60s north and upper 60s to lower 70s central and south.
454 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Current surface analysis places trough/boundary stretching from central South Dakota into north central Minnesota. An unsettled day is expected over the region as a variety of impulses ejecting from aforementioned upper low to the west continue to lift through the area. For tonight, upper low starts what will become its gradual migration towards the east. Aforementioned upper low continues its gradual eastward migration, moving over the Rockies late Friday, before meandering through the northern plains this weekend.
Elsewhere another warm day on tap even with serly low level flow as some feedback likely this aftn amidst good mixing within low level thermal ridge and expected to persist through Fri as well. Will generally hedge toward warmer side of guidance temps given expected insolation yielding deeper mixing depths within persisting warm thermal ridge.
Also helping to suppress convection over land areas is a ridge of high pressure over the Plains shifting east towards the Mississippi River, bringing increased upper subsidence to the western half of the Southeast.
Light onshore flow with warmer dewpoints under mostly clear skies tonight could lead to patchy fog development over the inland Coastal Plains.
As this feature moves across there will be wdly sct showers this morning over portions of the higher terrain. As for highs, readings will rise into the lower to mid 80's over the plains.
651 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure remains in control through Friday.
Clouds should thin out this afternoon and high temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s.
A pesky upper trough will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms as it lifts northward through midday.
Near seasonal temps expected today with daytime highs topping out in the low 90's. Scattered showers and isolated storms possible today, then drier air will be moving into the area tonight and Friday on the back side of a developing low pressure area offshore of the northeast coast of Florida.
* Cooler temperatures are expected this weekend with the passage of a cold front. A big upper low/trough is present over the western part of the country. The upper trough to the west will move slightly eastward on Friday with a portion of this trough extending into Nebraska.
347 AM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Current surface map places trough from northeastern South Dakota to just south of the Black Hills. Pacific Northwest upper low continues to dig towards the Great Basin. Buoyancy/shear favorable for another round of severe thunderstorms, especially along the warm front in the vicinity of South Dakota/Nebraska border.
The deepening closed low is over eastern Oregon early this morning. The system has been responsible for a few showers and thunderstorms over the foothills and northern Sierra overnight as a cold front moves south, but precipitation amounts have been very light. Elsewhere, skies remain clear with cooler temperatures compared to 24 hours ago. The low will only drift a bit further south today, into southeast Oregon or north central Nevada, before moving east tonight and Friday.
Key Messages: - Temperatures remain on the warm side today in the low 80s, which is around 10 degrees above normal highs for this time of year.
932 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High pressure remains in control through Friday.
A closed low pressure system continues to spin over eastern Oregon and western Idaho this morning, producing widespread rain showers over the Northern Rockies. The low pressure system to our southwest has also aided in the development of a strong east- northeast pressure gradient, that has produced gusty northeast winds across the region, especially in western Montana. With the location of the low pressure center to our southwest, it has also opened the door for a cooler Canadian airmass to spill over the divide into western Montana. Energy from the low pressure system will be ejected eastward over the Yellowstone region late tonight and into Friday.
Much cooler temperatures today as a cold front is seemingly holding its place in parts of southeastern Nevada. Showers and thunderstorms again today with some very light snowfall in the highest mountain peaks. Looking ahead, the weekend sees a little bit of warming and drier conditions, but cooler air will return eventually.
506 AM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Remaining cooler today with patchy morning drizzle for the coast and valleys from a deep marine layer and with stronger and gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts during the afternoon and evening. High pressure to the south will bring warming for the weekend, but with high temperatures remaining below average.
649 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 (Today and tonight) A large upper level low is situated over the northwestern U. with ridging over Texas and the central plains, and general troughing over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS. As far as temperatures go, we will remain warmer than normal today, with highs ranging from around 90 into the upper 90s, and overnight lows will again be muggy, mainly in the 70s.