Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
But with that said, these same wind fields only strengthen into the evening/overnight, when the primary wave/cold front approaches/makes passage.
Weak area of high pressure across the region leading to pleasant late summer conditions across the region. Farther south, the mid level moisture shallows, leading to increased stability and sunshine promoting warmer conditions on Tuesday. Complex is expected to build into the nose of the low level jet across the southern plains, with ~1500-2000 J/kg of elevated CAPE. Upper level ridge attempts to build across the western US leading to zonal flow transitioning to northwest flow.
1212 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A cold front is starting to push out of our area. The cold front will be to our south tomorrow and that will keep the shower and thunderstorm chances out of our area.
346 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 Weather conditions today will be cooler, but numerous showers are expected to blossom by the afternoon with a few isolated weak thunderstorms as well. Wednesday will be warmer, but with more isolated showers possible.
Decent mid level warm advection is expected across the high plains this evening, with upslope flow leading to another round of showers/storms expected to develop over the high plains. Storms should initially develop within the moist low level upslope regime across the high plains Eastern CO/Wrn Neb late Tue afternoon/evening. This activity will spread east-southeast late Tue evening/Tue nights likely growing upscale into a forward propagating complex of storms (MCS), given projected strength of the low level jet feeding the complex of storms.
The main synoptic feature of note across the CONUS today is the low pressure system currently sitting over Illinois and Indiana with a cold front extending all the way to Texas. Temperatures are lower since the passage of the cold front, with high temperatures in the 80s expected for the first half of the week, a few degrees below normal. Lows Tuesday night will be a bit warmer, in the mid 60s to low 70s. An MCS is expected to move through the High Plains on Tuesday and potentially bring some remnant thunderstorms to our area in the morning. For the latter half of the week, the upper level ridge builds back in, bringing warmer temperatures once again.
306 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A cold front will move through the area this morning, then stall to our south tonight and early Wednesday. The front will be followed by weak high pressure today through Wednesday.
The culprits remain unchanged as upper level ridging remains overhead and the Atlantic ridge axis also continues to be situated near Lake Okeechobee. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel as the ridge axis looks to move far enough north this weekend to shift the flow to more SE.
1049 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Another cooler than average afternoon in store to start the new work week under mainly cloudy skies and some scattered rain showers ongoing for areas along and near the Winds and through the Bighorns. A subtle short wave is propagating down the main longwave trough extending in from the Gulf of Alaska. Overnight, expect the main trough to close in on the Wyoming state line sparking some widely scattered rain showers early Tuesday morning before sunrise lasting throughout much of the day. Even cooler temperatures Tuesday with the aforementioned trough. Upper level ridging will now begin to build northward into the upper Rockies to include the CWA Wednesday onward through the end of the week into the weekend.
235 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A cold front will move through the area this morning, then stall to our south tonight and early Wednesday. The front will be followed by weak high pressure today through Wednesday.
(Today through Wednesday) Mid-level ridging will remain in place through the period. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
The low level moisture looks to be more marginal compared to this past night, so not expecting anything more widespread than patchy. A quasi-zonal regime aloft across the lower 48 will gradually transition back to a more amplified set as an elongated ridge reestablishes across the southern Rockies east into Texas with broad troughing focused over eastern Canada. Gusty winds could certainly accompany the storms but the primary threat is likely to be heavy rainfall and localized flooding as PWATs increase to near 2 inches and a deeply saturated airmass with a high freezing level strongly suggests warm rain processes will be in play with efficient rainfall rates.
Afternoon highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with readings in the lower 80s. increasing clouds ahead of the next storm system is forecast with overnight lows dropping into the lower 60s.
/Issued 106 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023/ /Through Wednesday/ Following the breakdown and southwestward retreat of the upper ridge axis, periodic disturbances continue to ripple through zonal flow aloft, resulting in convective activity across portions of the Southern Plains. As additional height falls and surface pressure falls occur upstream ahead of additional Central Plains troughing over the next 24 hours, low-level southerly flow will become rather strong by August standards.
The weather for Tuesday is generally looking good, but warmer with highs into the lower 80s. KJB A disjointed mid and upper-level trough moving through the mid- Mississippi River Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening will promote a period of showers and some thunderstorms into the forecast area by the evening.
There is some hope for rain for the eastern counties as a weak dryline/trough develops and could serve as a surface focus for convergence, but have left PoPs out of this area at this time until there is better model agreement.
Mean layer ridging centered over northern Mexico extends east into the western North Atlantic. This split ridge SFC configuration lends to weakly diffluent flow across the Keys this morning.
2) Scattered showers and storms (some strong) tomorrow late afternoon into early Wednesday as a cold front slowly moves through the area. Temperatures should warm to the low 80s with light southwesterly winds. With this, a cold front will sag down out of southern Manitoba reaching our northwest counties by afternoon and slowly continuing through our area before exiting on Wednesday morning. Rain Chances return late week: Following the cold front on Tuesday, temperatures will be a few degrees lower than what we've seen recently with highs topping out in the low to mid 70s.
A sharp short wave trough currently in the Intermountain West will swing onto the Central Plains today. A very weak surface pressure trough may exist bisecting the South Plains this afternoon but there does not appear to be much low level convergence along this boundary. Warmer temperatures and much deeper boundary layer mixing will occur today.
326 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023 Key Points: - A touch warmer this afternoon before evening and overnight storms move in from the west. HREF 24-hour QPF totals pinpoint the Hwy 56 corridor as the general area with the highest totals; some areas potentially receiving multiple inches of rain. The upper low slowly tracks across eastern Kansas throughout the day Wednesday keeping high temperatures much lower than average and in the 70s and low 80s.
These are associated with the upper low in Manitoba that will affect us later this afternoon. With decent frontogenesis identified in the low levels, and MUCAPE at or above 1000 J/kg in the majority of guidance, QPF put out by the models is not to be trusted. QPF for now will trend on the lower side, but thunderstorms embedded in the line would lend to higher QPF in isolated areas. In addition, regardless of storm mode, wind gusts and maybe some hail at most quarter sized are possible in isolated cells that can take advantage of the MLCAPE and lapse rates present before the cold frontal passage this afternoon. A split jet stream pattern will continue until this weekend, when the ridge/trough pattern becomes cohesive again across the contiguous US.
Ridging returns later in the week and will bring warmer temperatures to the area again with highs in the 90s by the weekend.
142 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A cold front will move through the area this morning, then stall to our south tonight and early Wednesday. The front will be followed by weak high pressure today through Wednesday.
- Scattered Showers and storms Possible Wednesday night The models have come into some sort of agreement on the passage of the large upper level low Wednesday night. The 500 mb low has a tight gradient aloft due to a building ridge over central Canada.
1104 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 A cold front will approach from the west this afternoon and cross the area late tonight into Tuesday.
111 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A cold front crosses our area this morning before pushing east this afternoon.
(Today) As of late, a cold front has moved south and east of the greater Tennessee Valley.
Storms across far southeast Oklahoma have exhibited supercell structure and likely produced large hail despite high freezing levels.
Temperatures will remain below normal today with highs in the low to mid 80s.
403 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A potent cold front will track through our region this afternoon with additional scattered showers or thunderstorms, especially east of the Hudson River. As the upper trough and associated upper energy tracks through our region midday through this evening, the associated low level cold front and wind shift will provide the low level forcing that will support development of additional showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Still seeing the high level smoke affect the area, with some of it making it to the surface. A northwest upper level flow pattern will remain in place through the short term, with an upper level low spinning across northern MB/ON for much of the period. This upper level system will slowly wobble eastward dropping a cold front through the forecast area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Some potential for the main area of showers/storms to be situated closer to the main upper low further to the east/northeast, so stuck with pops in the high chance (40-50%) for the majority of the forecast area. Did match up to neighbors into the low likely (60%) category for the far northwest with that secondary wave approaching the area during peak diurnal heating.
This will also help advect warmer mid-level temperatures into the area and as a result we'll see surface temperatures warm into the middle to possibly upper 80s. The MCS will focus on the nose of the low-level jet. With storms very likely and cloud cover likely lingering through the day, have lowered temperatures across the area with northeastern Missouri likely not climbing out of the lower 70s.
As the low slides just southwest of our CWA, a couple strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening , especially across parts of northeastern WY and southwestern SD. Transient ridging will allow for a warm and dry Wednesday, with highs in the upper 70s to 80s.
157 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A cold front will approach the area from the west this evening, resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be severe. Cooler, drier air pushes into the region post-frontal Tuesday on breezy NW winds. Highs will be in the 80s inland and the low 90s across the SE coast. Dewpoints will continue to be relatively pleasant in the low-mid 60s.
138 AM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023 Water vapor imagery was showing an upper low over southeast Oregon moving into southwest Idaho. Upper ridging moves in for Wednesday. This will provide a mostly dry day, along with warmer temperatures. This will send a cold front through. Temperatures will be a little warmer than we have experienced lately. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 80s.
All the while temperatures will continue to run 1 to 3 degrees warmer than normal.
650 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A potent cold front will track through our region this afternoon with additional scattered showers or thunderstorms, especially east of the Hudson River. As the upper trough and associated upper energy tracks through our region midday through this evening, the associated low level cold front and wind shift will provide the low level forcing that will support development of additional showers and isolated thunderstorms.
651 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A weak ridge of high pressure will gradually build into the Ohio Valley through tonight. The high will move east on Wednesday ahead of the next round of showers and thunderstorms expected to begin Wednesday night.
Weak high pressure drifting across the southeastern United States will provide us with generally quiet and dry weather in the short term. High temperatures this afternoon will mostly be in the lower 80s. about five degrees cooler than normal. Readings tonight will drop down into the lower and middle 60s, with some patchy valley fog possible along the Cumberland, Kentucky, and Licking rivers. Meanwhile, a downstream convectively-enhanced mid-level disturbance appears likely to move into the Lower OH Valley from the west Wednesday afternoon. Large scale forcing will be maximized late Wednesday evening and overnight as the sharp upper level trough quickly approaches from the west, and the SW LLJ increases to 40+ kts over central KY.
Cooler weather through the remainder of the week. A trough and associated cold front is currently over southern Manitoba. Due to the slow moving cold front, temperatures may struggle to reach current forecasted highs.
Today, a closed upper low will move southeast from central Saskatchewan towards the Great Lakes region.
Key Points: - A touch warmer this afternoon before evening and overnight storms move in from the west. HREF 24-hour QPF totals pinpoint the Hwy 56 corridor as the general area with the highest totals; some areas potentially receiving multiple inches of rain. The upper low slowly tracks across eastern Kansas throughout the day Wednesday keeping high temperatures much lower than average and in the 70s and low 80s.
645 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A cold front will move through the area this morning, then stall to our south tonight and early Wednesday. The front will be followed by weak high pressure today through Wednesday.
Ample sunshine will allow for temps warming into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon. However, these will stay closer to 850mb front and base of the upper trough, so likely just south of the WI/IL border. The idea is that showers and storms would develop along a slow-moving cold front, stemming from low pressure swinging across Lake Superior, that zips out ahead of the front during the early evening which would drift toward central WI and our far northern CWA as it weakens.
Last night's MCS really perturbed the low level wind and MSLP field as it pushed well into Oklahoma very early this morning. A greater easterly component to the low level wind field will lead to reduced mixing, especially as a stout elevated mixed layer overspreads southwest Kansas in the 800-600mb layer.
Aloft, the main trough axis remains situated over north Texas and Oklahoma at this hour. As the main trough digs south and east, post-frontal showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through the overnight hours into tomorrow morning, mainly across portions of north Mississippi. Temperatures will fall into the 30s and lower 40s by tomorrow morning as cold high pressure builds in from the west. AC3 A strong cold front will move east of the Mid-South tonight.
A cold front has pushed through dropping our temperatures with highs in the 40s to low 50s and lows in the mid 20s to low 30s today. As a high pressure will soon over our area, dry, calm weather will set in, and continue through at least mid-week.
(Tonight) A cold front was located from east of metro Nashville, across NW AL and NE MS. A threat of severe weather will wane from west to east as the cold front moves further eastward.
Dry conditions will be in place on Monday as high pressure moves into the region.
Many locations are already well below freezing with several hours of cooling left to go. The entire region should expect below freezing temperatures before sunrise with widespread 20s being common and even a few teens across some locations. As the trough that brought us the cold weather continues to slide off to the east, southerly return flow and ridging takes its place. This southerly return flow keeps temperatures a bit warmer tonight with most locations expected to be hovering near the freezing mark by sunrise Monday. Mid-level ridging continues to build Monday afternoon and temperatures quickly return to near normal.
- Blustery northwest winds will gust 25 to 35 mph late this afternoon and this evening as cooler air spreads in. Both of these troughs are embedded with a broader trough that will pass across the region into Sunday. There has been some rain/ice pellets, given the steep low-level lapse rates and warmer surface temps at onset for some areas. Overall, though, expect road impacts to be confined mostly to areas that experience heavier snow showers (rates locally > 1/2" per hour) as temps slowly cool this evening or colder bridges/elevated surfaces. Cool, seasonable temps are likely on Sunday with some clearing potential through the day as the trough axis slides east.
A weak surface trof will move across central Kansas tonight before dissipating over eastern Kansas early on Monday.
Upper low pulls off into Great Lakes this evening, with northwesterly flow setting up behind it.
Warmer temperatures, lighter winds, and dry conditions are expected today. Look for cooler temperatures and unsettled weather conditions by midweek as the disturbance moves across the state. High pressure aloft will move across Arizona today delivering warmer temperatures and light winds.
And the weather promises to be chilly and blustery with considerable cloudiness following yesterday's cold frontal passage. The deepest moisture will have departed by the time freezing temperatures arrive tonight. (Monday Night through next Sunday) Sub-freezing temperatures will affect all or at least parts of Middle Tennessee for the next several nights.
Highs Sunday will be similar to yesterday with most locations warming into the low to mid 50s. South winds will remain up a bit overnight, which will lead to slightly warmer overnight lows.
116 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 A cold front will sweep across the area tonight. Cold northwest flow will follow until high pressure builds in on Monday. The cold front has pushed into eastern portions of our area and should be out of our area by midnight. A colder airmass will continue to move in behind the front with lows tonight ranging from the low 30s west to the upper 30s east.
- Cooler overnight tonight (teens & 20s) as winds decrease and skies clear.
Any briefly heavier precip rates could perhaps bring periods of mostly snow Sunday morning but little or no travel impacts are expected due to the warm ground/road temps currently in the lower to mid 40s. - Lake Effect Snow Sunday Showers and strong winds have shifted east of the area with the cold front. Highs Sunday will be around 20 degrees cooler than today in the mid to upper 30s with lows Sunday night in the 20s.
1214 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 (This evening through Monday) Latest subjective surface analysis indicates a cold front from near West Memphis. A secondary cold front is now entering northwest Arkansas.
1225 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2023 IR depicts ample cloud cover spilling over the upper level ridge across the Pacific northwest extending into the western parts of the CWA. Probabilistic data concur greatly on this occurrence, with the highest probabilities for higher end snow amounts for the higher elevations. As the main upper level trough and associated cold front near for Monday, winds will diminish as the gradient weakens.
1037 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 (This evening through Sunday night) As of early this afternoon, latest radar imagery was watching the last of the showers exit the Panhandles alongside the cold front. Heading into Sunday, models expected the Panhandles to get a brief return to dry weather with the building of an upper-level ridge over the Central and Western US. This ridge will slowly break down over the course of Sunday and Monday, allowing for more westerly flow over the area.
(Sunday and Sunday night) High pressure centered to our south will bring dry conditions, light offshore flow, and pleasant daytime temperatures. After a chilly start this morning look for afternoon highs to reach the lower to mid 60s, with some lower 70s within the warmest inland portions of the Central Coast. Some high level cloudiness will prevail as a weak upper trough approaches from the north late in the forecast period.
Northwest winds have been gusty across much of the area with the highest peak gusts near 45 mph across portions of northeast Nebraska. Winds will diminish this evening as a vigorous upper trough moves northeast of our area and into the Great Lakes region.
Warmer temperatures, with recent snowfall has created the fog and is reducing visibilities down to a quarter of a mile at times. -Quiet day on Sunday, with temperatures warming into the 20s in the north and the lower 30s in the southern Red River Valley.
A relatively weak Canadian cold front is expected to cross the Continental Divide into northwest Montana Monday morning. This is especially true across northwest Montana where the cold front passage will time better with the early morning hours, making surfaces more susceptible to accumulations.
A low pressure system will cross the Great Basin midweek, bringing little in the way of precipitation, but helping to keep strong inversions from developing across the region.
Overnight low temperatures on Monday night are forecast to average in the lower to middle 30s.
Wind speeds will quickly decrease after sunset and temperatures will drop off into the 20s and low-30s, warmer than last night in part due to a light downsloping wind component.
This moisture then moves up and over a ridge axis centered over the Intermountain West. 2 to 4 inches of new snow is in the forecast with the highest elevations seeing around 6 inches. Highs today will be slightly warmer than yesterday as winds will shift to a more west/northwesterly versus northerly. Of course, any clouds and snow cover will keep cooler temps in place.
Quiet weather is expected to continue through today as an upper ridge moves through northern and central Nevada.
Considerable high clouds will move through a ridge of high pressure over the western states today through Monday.
An upper-level trough will linger across the Quad State through Monday before flow becomes a bit more zonal for the middle of the week. Surface ridging will be the rule for much of that time period as well, keeping dry conditions in place across the area.
510 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 (Today through Monday Night) Clouds are gradually working their way to the coast and offshore this morning as dry air works its way in with the associated high pressure. Expect today to be much quieter than yesterday, with sunny skies and much cooler temperatures. A few locations further inland and in northern counties will likely get below freezing tonight. This may necessitate a Freeze Warning for locations that have yet to experience a widespread freeze; however, it is very borderline, and temperatures are not expected to stay below freezing for more than a couple of hours.
- Cold front could bring light snow to the northern Black Hills and southwestern parts of the CWA Mon/Tues. The upper trough is swinging into the east coast, while an upper ridge builds over the west, leaving the northern plains beneath northwest flow. At the surface, trough axis is over eastern WY. A Canadian low pressure system will flatten the ridge as it swings southeastward tonight into Monday. Its associated cold front will sweep through the CWA Monday afternoon and evening, resulting in some breezy NW winds, along with some light upslope snow over the northern BH.