Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Midday temps were running around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, and dew points had climbed about 10 degrees during the past 24 hours. A strong, sprawling ridge centered over the Mid MS Valley will continue to control our wx.
The Lower and Middle Keys, with a focus on Key West and Marathon, have been pounded multiple times by heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, winds will increase as high pressure in the North Atlantic continues to strengthen overnight.
As such, temperatures at the noon hour were generally ranging in the low to mid 90s across most of the area, with heat indices mainly in the mid/upper 90s to around 104 or so in some locations.
1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (Today and tonight) A persistence forecast is in store for a persistent synoptic pattern of high pressure continuing to drive our regional ambient weather conditions. The biggest difference for today from recent days is a steadier and more pronounced southeast surface wind regime advecting a modest amount of boundary layer moisture, noted by more widespread surface dewpoints in the low to mid 50s, helping to lower max temperatures slightly. The higher dewpoints will in turn, result in a slightly more mild overnight, but barely noticeable from what we've been already experiencing.
The upper level high centered over the region is progged to continue through the next several days, leading to the Excessive Heat continuing through midweek.
1135 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 12Z upper air analysis places the center of an upper-level ridge over east Kansas and west central Missouri. METAR observations across the Lower Mississippi Valley show surface dewpoints rising somewhat across areas mostly west of the Mississippi River.
Lows should be fairly similar to last night, maybe a degree or two warmer given the cloud coverage.
Over this extended hour temps have continued to cool even though the high dewpoints were still begin observed. mostly clear to some passing high clouds and light surface winds underneath the dome of high pressure are expected through the night for the CWA. (Monday through Sunday) Dangerous heat will persist through the work week across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as a large upper level ridge aloft reigns supreme across the central United States.
659 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 The week ahead is looking generally dry and warm as high pressure will dominate much of the country. No major changes needed for now, as temperatures in the lower and mid 80s and mostly comfortable dewpoints create a nice late August afternoon.
610 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure will build over the region through the first half of the week, before a weak boundary slips down through the region midweek. High pressure rebuilds for the latter half of the week. It will be a warm, humid night with lows from the lower 70s well inland the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large expanse of upper level high pressure will be centered across the central Plains to start the week with ridging nosing through the southeast CONUS and off the coast.
930 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure will keep conditions dry through Monday as a warming trend takes place.
939 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 A weak cold front will move southeast across the area through the morning. High pressure returns in its wake through midweek.
607 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (Tonight) A very strong upper level ridge with maximum 500mb heights at or greater than 600 decameters was ensconced over KS/MO region. This ridge was creating more of a troughing west (also partially associated with Tropical Storm Hillary now moving northward over the northern Baja), and ridging central and east to start the week.
742 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure remains off the mid Atlantic coast through tonight. A cold front approaches early Monday and moves through the region Monday afternoon into early Monday night.
819 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Upper level high pressure will build into the region through mid week, leading to mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will drop slowly southeast into northern portions of our area overnight. With some weak low level CAA developing behind the boundary we will range highs on Monday from the mid 80s north to the lower 90s across the south. Have trended the forecast toward a model blend and this generally yields dewpoints in the lower 70s through the afternoon.
Otherwise, upper and surface ridging will keep conditions dry with late summer heat and muggy conditions throughout the week.
Tropical storm Hilary lifting northward, accelerating and merging with the upper low west of San Francisco. Occasionally these winds will reach the surface and the High Wind Warning continues. Combined that the highest rainfall rates will occur during the nighttime hours, hazards will be extremely difficult to observe. In the HRRR models, still seeing amounts in the 2-4 inch range across the high terrain of Nye County, and the extreme southern end of Lander, Eureka, and White Pine County.
605 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (This evening through Monday) The forecast area will remain on the southwestern flank of an expansive and strong upper level high centered over the lower Missouri Valley. This in turn will have the chance of producing some upslope-induced convection Monday afternoon, although this is most likely to occur closer to the Pecos River valley farther away from the subsident effects of the upper high. However, there is a narrow band of mid level moisture rotating westward on the south side of the mid/upper ridge along and north of the Red River.
502 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2023 The general 500mb forecast features a 601dam high pressure center over western Missouri with an upper level trough over the western quarter of the country.
627 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Increasing clouds tonight will lead to a few passing showers and sprinkles on Monday as a cold front crosses the area. Then, cooler and drier weather under high pressure builds in for much of the week.
Monday afternoon will feature slightly "cooler" (but not really) temperatures. This is thanks to the continued northward displacement of the mid-level ridge, and the persisting easterly winds at the surface and aloft that help to bring in increased low-level CAA overtop the region.
This evening's NBM has come in a degree or two warmer with Monday's high temperatures, perhaps owing to slightly increased expectation for insolation through high clouds.
1046 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Upper level high pressure will build into the region through mid week, leading to mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. Large mid level ridge remains centered over the nations mid section, positioned just west of the Ohio Valley. Around the periphery of this high a weak surface cold front will drop slowly southeast into northern portions of our area overnight and wash out. With some weak low level CAA developing behind the boundary we will range highs on Monday from the mid 80s north to the lower 90s across the south. Have trended the forecast toward a model blend and this generally yields dewpoints in the lower 70s through the afternoon.
655 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across much of the United States through the week. Overnight lows will be 5-6 degrees above normal with temps in the low 70s across the region. High pressure continues to influence the region Monday as a strong H5 centered over Missouri continues to slowly strengthen. Lows Monday night will be in the low to mid 70s.
Concerning the High Wind Warning - latest guidance supports what we have in place so this will be maintained. The highest precipitation should occur Monday morning across Harney, Malheur and Baker Counties in Oregon, and Payette, Washington, Adams, Gem, and Canyon Counties in Idaho.
820 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in place over Kentucky beneath an anomalously strong 5h ridge. Currently warm temperatures are dropping off into the mid 70s in the valleys to the low 80s on the ridges. Weak northerly flow on its east side will bring a weak cold front south toward us near the end of the period. However, the strength of the high will crush any chance at convection, with mostly clear skies continuing. The dominating high will result in hot high temperatures mostly in the lower 90s on Monday.
858 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure will build over the region through the first half of the week, before a weak boundary slips down through the region midweek. High pressure rebuilds for the latter half of the week. It will be a warm, humid night with lows from the lower 70s well inland the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large expanse of upper level high pressure will be centered across the central Plains to start the week with ridging nosing through the southeast CONUS and off the coast.
733 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Increasing clouds tonight will lead to a few passing showers and sprinkles on Monday as a cold front crosses the area. Then, cooler and drier weather under high pressure builds in for much of the week.
648 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Tranquil weather continues through this evening, then an approaching cold front will bring clouds and a few showers overnight through Monday afternoon.
735 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 A weak cold front will move southeast across the area through the morning. High pressure returns in its wake through midweek.
723 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure increases the heat and humidity through much of the work week.
1039 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure remains off the mid Atlantic coast through tonight. A cold front approaches early Monday and moves through the region Monday afternoon into early Monday night.
811 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 A warm night is expected across the Mid-South as temperatures only fall into the low to mid 70s overnight.
High pressure in the North Atlantic will continue toÂ extend towards the Florida Keys. The overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 80s. Strengthening high pressure over the eastern United States and Atlantic will bring freshening easterly breezes late tonight.
635 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 High pressure will keep conditions dry through Monday as a warming trend takes place.
Made very little changes this evening as high pressure remains stationed over a large part of the central and eastern CONUS. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Monday) The pattern is now locked in across much of the CONUS, with the 500mb ridge continuing to amplify over the Great Plains. High temperatures should be able to rise about a degree or so warmer than yesterday and top out in the mid to upper 90s. Dewpoints in the lower 70s coupled with high temps in the upper 90s to near 100 will send heat index values over 105 degrees across much of the area. A tropical wave in the Central Gulf of Mexico will remain well to our south as it traverses west on the southern periphery of the upper ridge.
(Rest of tonight) High pressure centered to our west across the Plains has resulted in tranquil weather conditions across the Tennessee Valley. As of 02z, dewpoints have risen into the lower 70s making for a much more muggy feel. As a result, temperatures by tomorrow morning will only drop down into the low to mid 70s.
428 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Broad upper ridging continues to cover the central and eastern CONUS, while moisture emanating from Hurricane Hilary is pushing north over the western states. At the surface, high pressure sits over ND, resulting in some breezy easterly winds across our CWA. Over the next few days, the upper high/ridge will strengthen and broaden, resulting in another period of hot and dry weather.
833 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 The week ahead is looking generally dry and warm as high pressure will dominate much of the country. Increasing southwest flow on the back side of high pressure to our east will result in a cloud increase overnight. Low temperatures will end up in the lower to mid 60s, with higher dewpoints than the last couple of nights.
625 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (This evening through Monday night) A strong upper-level ridge. Now, brace yourselves for this because it's pretty shocking: there's a very low chance for rain Monday! The upper-level ridge may nudge just enough to the northeast such that a portion of our area may be removed from the large-scale subsidence aloft just enough that a shower or thunderstorm may be able to develop. NBM's idea of limiting any chance for rain to the southwestern counties makes more sense because that is farther away from the center of the upper-level ridge, but will limit the maximum to 14% for now.
(Today and tonight) The 00Z SPC upper air map shows a 603 dam upper level ridge over Missouri and is expected to remain there through the day. In the eastern Gulf of Mexico an inverted trough with an associated area of low pressure is expected to continue tracking to the west towards the south Texas coast where it may develop into a tropical depression or storm Tuesday morning. Another day of hot temperatures is expected as a strong area of high pressure to our northeast continues to influence highs in the upper 90s to triple digits.
Tropical Storm Hilary is coming ashore in the northern Baja Peninsula as it gets pulled northward in between an upper trough off the California coastline and an exceptionally powerful and large upper ridge that is parked over the central plains. 500 mb heights at or just above 600 dam are supporting the potential for record high temperatures across the area again this afternoon, and potentially Monday & Tuesday afternoons as well as the upper ridge maintains its position and intensity.
The dangerous heat continues today as the staunch upper level high looms over the region.
Northeasterly steering flow will continue through the week, with PWATs below average and High pressure just to our north, southeast Georgia and northeast Florida will remain mostly dry on Tuesday, with a slight chance of some sprinkles near the Florida coast.
roughly 10 degrees cooler than yesterday due to the cold front that passed through earlier. The western part of that frontal boundary is acting like a warm front over Wisconsin and will see a LLJ develop tonight and impinge on that front.
Over this extended hour temps have continued to cool even though the high dewpoints were still begin observed. mostly clear to some passing high clouds and light surface winds underneath the dome of high pressure are expected through the night for the CWA.
(Today and tonight) A sprawling and massive upper high centered over KS/MO will expand its influence a little more today over the service area.
(Today and tonight) A strong high pressure ridge over MO/KS will remain nearly stationary and continue to provide dry and clear conditions across the TN Valley today and tonight. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer, with highs today a few degrees above yesterday's highs, in the 90 to 95 degree range in most spots outisde the mountains.
Overnight lows will be generally in the upper 70s to the lower 80s, except for middle 80s across portions of the Metroplex. The center of upper level high pressure will shift ever so slightly northward on Monday, likely shaving a degree or two off of the high temperature but it will hardly be noticeable. Unfortunately for North Texas, subsidence under the oppressive ridge will keep prospects for rain at 0.
High pressure builds back into the region midweek. Very quiet conditions continue early this morning with high pressure over the area. With most inland locations decoupling already, good radiational cooling is expected through the rest of the night, and low temps in the low to mid 70s are on track.
256 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Anomalous ~600-dm 500-mb ridge continues across the region, centered to our west. Some high-level Pacific moisture should be more extensive tomorrow on the northern and eastern periphery of the ridge and could result in more cirrus than we've seen in recent days.
(Today through Tuesday night) WV satellite shows a massive upper ridge centered roughly over MCI, placing the Panhandles under southeasterly flow aloft. Today and tomorrow, expect hot conditions given the warm temperatures aloft associated with the upper ridge to the northeast.
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in place over Kentucky beneath an anomalously strong 5h ridge. Currently warm temperatures are dropping off into the mid 70s in the valleys to the low 80s on the ridges. Weak northerly flow on its east side will bring a weak cold front south toward us near the end of the period. However, the strength of the high will crush any chance at convection, with mostly clear skies continuing. The dominating high will result in hot high temperatures mostly in the lower 90s on Monday.
338 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 High pressure will maintain dry conditions across the region today, temperatures warming with above normal readings expected this afternoon.
Warmer than normal temperatures return late this week. Increasing dynamics and some weak mid level instability from a large closed low dropping to off the Washington coast by Monday evening may provide another focus area of showers over North Central Washington by Monday evening.
1138 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 (Rest of tonight) High pressure centered to our west across the Plains has resulted in tranquil weather conditions across the Tennessee Valley. As of 02z, dewpoints have risen into the lower 70s making for a much more muggy feel. As a result, temperatures by tomorrow morning will only drop down into the low to mid 70s.
135 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 High pressure remains off the mid Atlantic coast through tonight. A cold front approaches early Monday and moves through the region Monday afternoon into early Monday night.
This brings about drier and warmer conditions, and lessens the chance for storms and showers to occur (with only a small chance for showers/storms over the mountains Tuesday afternoon and evening).
136 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Temperatures rise to well above normal by Tuesday as a strong upper ridge builds east from the Plains. A slight cool down is possible later in the week as a cold front moves into the area. High pressure aloft over the Mid Mississippi River Valley expands eastward to the East Coast through Tuesday. Subsiding air due to the ridge axis and mid level capping will limit any isolated convection to near the sea breeze front. An upper level trough over the Northeast U.
1220 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) An upper level high, centered over the area, will continue to control the weather pattern through the short term. This high pressure system will promote calm and dry conditions with mostly clear skies expected.
With the upper level ridge drifting slightly more northeast in the Central Plains and Midwest, our area will remain on its periphery. We will still see temperatures climb into the lower to mid 100s but we will also see chances for isolated showers and storms across the I-10 corridor and in the Northern Edwards Plateau this afternoon with slightly decreased subsidence and increased moisture.
No changes to the heat headlines this morning as a 600 dm ridge at 500 mb is parked over the central CONUS.
Minor upper level heights falls are anticipated today as the massive Central CONUS ridge spreads northward and a large trough over far eastern Canada deepens and pushes much more noticeable heights falls into New England. We will likely see an increase in upper level clouds today as they drift southeastward over the top of the ridge. Quiet and dry weather continues straight through Tuesday as high pressure remains centered over the central CONUS aloft, with an upper ridge extending from the high eastward across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic states.
229 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 As of 2AM CDT, we've got some clouds over the majority of the region with temperatures in the high 50s to mid 60s. A ridge continues to dominate the upper level pattern through the short term period. Deterministic models show the high strengthening through the day today before starting to weaken Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures at the surface during the period will also be quite warm reaching into the low 90s in northern SD and into the low 100s in central SD. Humidity is going to make it feel even warmer, with dew points reaching into the 70s.
Much more typical and warmer weather returns the later half of the week, featuring daily chances of showers and storms. The area of low pressure parked just offshore the northern CA coast, and instrumental in ushering Hilary quickly out of the region, is not done with us just yet. Hi-Res model guidance projects the upper closed low to swing east across northern CA this afternoon and then lift northeast across western NV through Tuesday. By midweek, an area of upper ridging will build northwest across the Great Basin region into northern CA. * Cold air aloft and residual moisture from troughing offshore the California coast will bring chances (15-25%) for isolated thunderstorms over northeast California, western Nevada, and portions of the Eastern Sierra this afternoon into the early evening.
135 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Upper level high pressure will build into the region through mid week, leading to mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. Large mid level ridge remains centered over the nations mid section, positioned just west of the Ohio Valley. Around the periphery of this high a weak surface cold front will drop slowly southeast into northern portions of our area overnight and wash out. With some weak low level CAA developing behind the boundary we will range highs on Monday from the mid 80s north to the lower 90s across the south. Have trended the forecast toward a model blend and this generally yields dewpoints in the lower 70s through the afternoon.
As the tropical wave continues to move away from our area; into the Gulf of Mexico, high pressure will build in from the north today keeping easterly to northeasterly winds through the week. In terms of temperatures, daytime high temperatures are forecast to reach the lower to mid 90s with heat index values generally in the 100-105 range. As we approach the weekend, latest model guidance continues to suggest an upper level-trough dipping through the Great Lakes region helping to push the high pressure to Western U.
149 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Warmer and more humid weather is on the way for Monday before a cold front moves through bringing cooler weather into the middle of the week. Some clouds have been moving south from the Great Lakes this evening associated with an approaching cold front.
409 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 A few passing showers and sprinkles this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold front passage this afternoon brings cooler and drier weather as high pressure sits overhead into the end of the week.
(Today through Tuesday) Upper ridging centered near Kansas City this morning, with an easterly wave over the central Gulf of Mexico. The upper ridge really isn't going much of anywhere in that time.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed weak high pressure over central Lake MI with a stronger area of high pressure over northern ND. Low pressure was situated over the mid-Ms Valley at the tail end of a cold front that moved through northeast WI last night. High pressure is expected to move into northern sections of the Great Lakes overnight and keep quiet weather conditions over northeast WI tonight. An area of low pressure is expected to reside over eastern SD or southwest MN on Monday and pull a warm front northward into southern MN/southwest WI Monday afternoon.