Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
629 PM MDT Tue Apr 4 2023 Light snow showers continue to fall this afternoon across much of the high country in the wake of yesterday's potent frontal boundary. Weak troughing will continue to swing through the region tonight, with winter highlights expected to come to an end by midnight. As this week's winter storm lifts out of the Great Plains towards the Great Lakes Wednesday morning a passing vort max will initiate another round of precipitation across the high country.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) Through the short term period, our mid-to-upper level pattern undergoes a transition from largely zonal to being governed by a weak ridge axis sliding north from across the Gulf of Mexico. For now, given increase in moisture near the surface from fetch off the Atlanta *and* aloft thanks to the approaching pre-frontal trough, thinking that patchy dense fog is possible for a few hours before daybreak across portions of central Georgia. Otherwise, given little change in flow, conditions very similar to today are likely for tomorrow, allowing for one more dry day ahead of an approaching cold front.
329 PM MDT Tue Apr 4 2023 Large regional storm system now moving from the central Rockies out over the high plains.
744 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023 An upper ridge has built in over the area with heights ranging from 578 to 582 and a low pressure system to the northwest has helped to usher in warm, moist air northward. This should help to set us up for some severe weather late Wednesday as a cold front pushes through from the west, therefore have highlighted a marginal risk area to account for this.
A large upper trough situated to our east will continue to support scattered snow showers over southwest Idaho tonight. Drier conditions are expected for most areas on Wednesday as an upper ridge starts to approach from the west. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday. Scattered MVFR-IFR snow showers over the higher terrain and KJER/KTWF region through sunrise.
(Rest of tonight) Strong WAA persists behind a warm front that pushed north through our region earlier today.
Light snow showers continue to fall this afternoon across much of the high country in the wake of yesterday's potent frontal boundary. Weak troughing will continue to swing through the region tonight, with winter highlights expected to come to an end by midnight. As this week's winter storm lifts out of the Great Plains towards the Great Lakes Wednesday morning a passing vort max will initiate another round of precipitation across the high country.
We will continue the Winter Weather Advisory for Niobrara County, as well as the Winter Storm Warning for the northern Nebraska Panhandle, and cancel the highlights elsewhere. Based on trends in observations, radar and satellite, we have allowed some of the highlights to expire at 6 PM as well as cancelled some of the Winter Weather Advisories across southeast Wyoming. Wind speeds have been very reluctant to increase much above blizzard criteria today due to the weakened gradients in the mid levels today in response to the elongated closed low.
(Through Wednesday) Upper level ridging is building in from the Gulf of Mexico with good southerly flow bringing in moisture, keeping our dew points in the mid to upper 60s.
652 PM MDT Tue Apr 4 2023 Based on trends in observations, radar and satellite, we have allowed some of the highlights to expire at 6 PM as well as cancelled some of the Winter Weather Advisories across southeast Wyoming. Wind speeds have been very reluctant to increase much above blizzard criteria today due to the weakened gradients in the mid levels today in response to the elongated closed low.
627 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) The large Rocky Mountain trough that is resulting in widespread strong winds and historical fire weather this afternoon ejects into the Midwest tonight. Behind this trough, a weak cold front spills into the region. Much cooler temperatures are expected across a majority of the region, 30s and low 40s out west with temperatures remaining milder in the mid 40s further east.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Ridge of high pressure continues to dominate across the eastern Gulf waters through the period.
Temperatures are currently trending a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Cold overnight are expected through Wednesday morning, although low temperatures are trending a few degrees warmer than what we observed this morning.
A longwave trough with an aggressive closed low will swing across the Four corners region and eventually make its way through the plains and the Lower Miss Valley. An associated cold front will slowly begin to approach the ArkLaMiss region by mid-morning. While much of the stronger ascent will be associated with the low and stay north of the region, strong flow aloft along the fringe of the jet max will support severe storms along and ahead of the boundary.
325 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 Discussion/Marine/Hydro - Severe weather potential today - A warm front lifting north through our area early to mid morning and a cold front approaching from the west will set the stage for strong to severe storms today. A fairly unidirectional wind profile with height once the warm front lifts north of our area in conjunction with strong deep layer shear suggests potential for splitting supercells. The warm front should already be located from near Pentwater ese to Alma by 12Z this morning.
1208 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) The large Rocky Mountain trough that is resulting in widespread strong winds and historical fire weather this afternoon ejects into the Midwest tonight. Behind this trough, a weak cold front spills into the region. Much cooler temperatures are expected across a majority of the region, 30s and low 40s out west with temperatures remaining milder in the mid 40s further east.
The upper level low will shift northeast across eastern ND this morning into southwest Ontario, Canada this evening.
There is another threat for a second round of severe storms late afternoon through the evening as storms form along a cold front that sweeps east through the region. Dry and cooler weather with temperatures only in the upper 40s to lower 50s are Staying the course with respect to messaging potential severe weather outbreak today. Of concern is warm front slow to progress through northern CWA with thermal/backed low level flow enhanced due through southern Lakes influence. There is a final concern for linear convection tied to cold front sweeping CWA in 21-02 UTC timeframe. Model trends through this morning have begun to recognize the second round potential convective depth tied to cold front immediately in advance of northern extrusion of dryline.
A weak cold front, near Amarillo, Texas as of 230AM CDT, will continue to push southward through the morning with weakening surface winds through the day. Skies will be mostly clear through the day today with nearly 20 degree cooler highs than yesterday in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Surface observations in Kansas show the cold front has about one row of counties further to go before clearing the Oklahoma line. Blowing dust at ground level will continue to decrease over the next few hours as the cold front moves into Oklahoma and winds veer NWly. 17Z observations are showing a stationary front located roughly from Syracuse to Great Bend with strong southwest winds on the south side of the front and has led to widespread blowing dust along and south of roughly the highway 56 corridor. Winds will continue to be breezy during the night and strong cold air advection in the lower levels should allow temperatures to fall into the 20s by daybreak. Wednesday will be seasonably cooler as the main upper trough moves into the central and northern plains.
WV imagery indicates a closed upper low lifting northeast across the eastern Dakotas. Near the surface, a cold front extends from the southern Texas Panhandle northeast through western Oklahoma into southeast Kansas.
322 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 Deep low pressure will drag a cold front across the Ohio Valley today and tonight, providing the focus for severe thunderstorms.
(Today) Strong cold front has moved into northeast Oklahoma early this morning, currently located north of a Tulsa, Miami line. Otherwise, gusty northwest winds at 25 to 30 mph will continue this morning behind the cold front with highs only climbing to around 60 across northeast Oklahoma. Low temperatures are forecast to fall to near or just below freezing in a few locations across far northeast Oklahoma, near the OK/KS state line.
135 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 A warm front will move north of the region tonight. On Wednesday, low pressure lifting from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest along with an associated cold frontal boundary will bring a focus for thunderstorms.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through the afternoon and evening with the approach and passage of a cold front.
a generally sunny sky is expected today with high temperatures in the lower 40s to around 50 degrees. Low temperatures fall into the lower 20s.
Discussion: A deep SW flow will be the main feature over our area today, between a ridge near the Atlantic coastline and a low pressure system over the Plains. The main area of precip associated with a cold front will start to spread into the Cumberland Plateau tonight, mainly after midnight.
(Today and tonight) Cooler and much drier air has overspread most of Oklahoma and western north Texas behind a cold front.
211 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 High pressure will extend across the region into mid week.
(Today) A very mild early morning across the Tennessee Valley for April 5th as 3 AM temperatures are in the low to mid 70s across the area thanks to southerly flow and some clouds that have rolled in. A cold front will attempt to advance eastward into the region today, but it will have a difficult time doing so thanks to a very strong area of high pressure just east of the area. Given dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, it's going to feel notably muggy outside today, so bring a bottle of water with you if you head outdoors.
1048 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023 (Rest of tonight) Strong WAA persists behind a warm front that pushed north through our region earlier today.
202 AM MDT Wed Apr 5 2023 A deep upper low was over the central Dakotas and will continue to shift east away from the area today. Light snow has been steadily tapering off overnight as the low shifts east.
As an upper level low pushes further northeast entering the Great Lakes, these snow showers will remain weak without forcing and will depend on orographics in the mountains. Areas south of Denver and along Loveland Pass should receive the highest dose of snowfall amounts with short-term models favoring a southerly track through our CWA; snow totals for the Palmer Divide and areas near Loveland Pass range from 1-3 inches.
606 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023 (Today and tonight) Watching satellite and radar trends for possible isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland for the next few hours as a Pacific cold front moves through. Cooler today, with highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s.
a generally sunny sky is expected today with high temperatures in the lower 40s to around 50 degrees. Low temperatures fall into the lower 20s. This, along with blending the better performing temperature guidance from the past one to seven days supports high temperatures in the lower 50s to around 60.
Our weather for the next 24 hours will be influenced by deep layer ridging across the region.
Moderate southeast flow will allow most areas to reach the lower to even middle 90s this afternoon.
TWH A deep upper low was over the central Dakotas and will continue to shift east away from the area today. Light snow has been steadily tapering off overnight as the low shifts east. An upper ridge starts shifting east tonight and Thursday.
Ridging allows for moderating temperatures on Thursday and mostly dry conditions aside from a few mountain showers.
538 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 Southerly flow ahead of a cold front is bringing mild conditions for early April, with most places still in the upper 60s and lower 70s early this morning. Even with mid-high level clouds today, with such a warm start we should see temps rise into the lower to mid 80s. Later in the night and on Thursday, generalized showers and thunderstorms can be expected as the cold front arrives and passes, but as winds aloft weaken, so will our severe wx threat. Starting aloft, Eastern Kentucky will be wedged between strong Southeast coast ridging and longwave troughing across the eastern half of Canada.
(Today and tonight) Watching satellite and radar trends for possible isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland for the next few hours as a Pacific cold front moves through. Cooler today, with highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s.
There is another threat for a second round of severe storms late afternoon through the evening as storms form along a cold front that sweeps east through the region. Dry and cooler weather with temperatures only in the upper 40s to lower 50s are expected. Of concern is warm front slow to progress through northern CWA with thermal/backed low level flow enhanced due through southern Lakes influence. There is a final concern for linear convection tied to cold front sweeping CWA in 21-02 UTC timeframe. Model trends through this morning have begun to recognize the second round potential convective depth tied to cold front immediately in advance of northern extrusion of dryline.
Of concern is warm front slow to progress through northern CWA with thermal/backed low level flow enhanced due through southern Lakes influence. There is a final concern for linear convection tied to cold front sweeping CWA in 21-02 UTC timeframe. Model trends through this morning have begun to recognize the second round potential convective depth tied to cold front immediately in advance of northern extrusion of dryline.
Southerly flow ahead of a cold front is bringing mild conditions for early April, with most places still in the upper 60s and lower 70s early this morning. Even with mid-high level clouds today, with such a warm start we should see temps rise into the lower to mid 80s. Later in the night and on Thursday, generalized showers and thunderstorms can be expected as the cold front arrives and passes, but as winds aloft weaken, so will our severe wx threat. Starting aloft, Eastern Kentucky will be wedged between strong Southeast coast ridging and longwave troughing across the eastern half of Canada.
628 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023 (Today and tonight) Cooler and much drier air has overspread most of Oklahoma and western north Texas behind a cold front.
Cold April morning across the forecast area with 2 am temperatures ranging from the 20s and 30s east and south of Tucson to the 30s and lower 40s across the freezing warning area of Pinal and Pima counties. Satellite imagery showed high clouds moving west to east across the area which may keep temperatures in the freezing warning are from reaching their potential this morning.
Dry and warmer weather expected through Thursday with locally breezy Santa Ana winds.
920 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 Deep low pressure will drag a cold front across the Ohio Valley today and tonight, providing the focus for severe thunderstorms. Drier weather will begin to move in on Thursday with high pressure. Tranquil conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of the forecast period as high pressure dominates the weather map. Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will linger early this evening as the cold front progresses east. Winds will subside as the low moves to Canada and high pressure arrives from the west. Cooler temperatures will be observed, with lows tonight in the 40s followed by highs in the 50s on Thursday.
745 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 Aviation - Severe weather potential today - A warm front lifting north through our area early to mid morning and a cold front approaching from the west will set the stage for strong to severe storms today. A fairly unidirectional wind profile with height once the warm front lifts north of our area in conjunction with strong deep layer shear suggests potential for splitting supercells. The warm front should already be located from near Pentwater ese to Alma by 12Z this morning.
Some energy on the backside of the trough that just pushed through will help bring isolated to scattered snow showers to the area during the afternoon today. Most places will see 20s to mid-30s as the high temperature Thursday.
Then an upper ridge will move over the state through the end of the week and temperatures will begin to climb to above normal.
WV imagery shows the upper trough continuing to eject into the upper Midwest, with a secondary trough set to develop over SoCal/Baja over the next couple of days. To the north, a cold front is moving through the panhandles, and will assist w/the Pac front today in taking afternoon highs below normal. Thursday, easterly upslope flow continues as the SoCal/Baja trough further strengthens over the Gulf of California.
- Briefly cooler today, the season's warmest conditions so far are expected over the next seven days.
Accompanying this warmer air will be a weak upper level disturbance, which will result in a few rain and snow showers across the area today, which could result in a few brief reductions in visibility. Our warming trend will continue through the weekend as upper level ridging builds into the area.
Dry and cooler weather with temperatures only in the upper 40s to lower 50s are expected. Severe thunderstorms have developed over far northwest Indiana in the vicinity of the warm front and 60-knot 850 mb jet. There is a low chance of redevelopment late in the day along the cold front itself (behind this squall line) but the small window of opportunity to rejuvenate our airmass leaves me extremely skeptical of that scenario. Of concern is warm front slow to progress through northern CWA with thermal/backed low level flow enhanced due through southern Lakes influence. There is a final concern for linear convection tied to cold front sweeping CWA in 21-02 UTC timeframe. Model trends through this morning have begun to recognize the second round potential convective depth tied to cold front immediately in advance of northern extrusion of dryline.
Weak upper ridging will build over the area today with dry weather expected for most locations. A warm front approaching the coast will result in occasional light rain over the marine waters and coastal counties this afternoon. However there's good agreement the bulk of the precipitation should remain offshore with weak ridging remaining over the area. Tonight and Thursday, the weak upper ridge will shift east with a southwest flow aloft. The main upper trough will still remain offshore, therefore the best chance for precipitation will remain over the marine waters and coastal counties. Once the upper trough moves into the area Thursday night, precipitation will spread inland over most of the forecast area.
Winds will then become southeasterly late this afternoon and evening as the high shifts off to the east and a new lee-side trough develops to our west. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the lower 20's to the mid 30's.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through the afternoon and evening with the approach and passage of a cold front. Cells will weaken along the front into tonight with the approach of the boundary being slowed by high pressure/ridging in the east keeping showers over southwest PA into Thursday.
While thermodynamic profiles have become increasingly supportive of severe storms, deep layer wind shear has weakened with the diurnal weakening of the low level jet.
Despite generally no measurable rainfall for the island this morning, at least a trace of precipitation was observed at the office here on White Street in Key West, consistent with several other reports in the Lower Keys.
Otherwise, a warm, dry day is on tap as the CWA sits beneath a stout upper-level ridge. In general, relatively dry air aloft and subsidence beneath the ridge should limit coverage of showers. Overnight through tomorrow, a low pressure system will occlude as it tracks across southeastern Canada. Meanwhile, an associated cold front will push into the northern portion of the CWA around 12z tomorrow with scattered showers in tow. However, bulk shear is forecast to be less than 30 kts and with a potent jet streak much too far to our north to aid in ascent, the only real forcing will be the cold front and weak vorticity advection aloft.
We will then focus on the cold front that arrives in the afternoon but that precipitation should last less than an hour and may very well be scattered. - Severe weather potential today - A warm front lifting north through our area early to mid morning and a cold front approaching from the west will set the stage for strong to severe storms today. A fairly unidirectional wind profile with height once the warm front lifts north of our area in conjunction with strong deep layer shear suggests potential for splitting supercells. The warm front should already be located from near Pentwater ese to Alma by 12Z this morning.
Otherwise, a warm, dry day is on tap as the CWA sits beneath a stout upper- level ridge. In general, relatively dry air aloft and subsidence beneath the ridge should limit coverage of showers. Overnight through tomorrow, a low pressure system will occlude as it tracks across southeastern Canada. Meanwhile, an associated cold front will push into the northern portion of the CWA around 12z tomorrow with scattered showers in tow. However, bulk shear is forecast to be less than 30 kts and with a potent jet streak much too far to our north to aid in ascent, the only real forcing will be the cold front and weak vorticity advection aloft.
A dry slot has inhibited heavier precipitation in the area, but the absence of moisture has led to freezing drizzle underneath the dry slot, and could continue into this morning. As surface temperatures increase throughout the late morning, the freezing drizzle may transition over to a light rain or drizzle as the dry slot moves east. Strong easterly winds will taper off this morning as the low pressure center moves northward into northeast Minnesota, which will lower the chances for blowing snow throughout the morning and early afternoon. These gusts are not expected to last as long and will steadily decrease as the low continues to move north out of the Upper Midwest. As the low moves off to the northeast, flow out of the southwest aloft will bring WAA to the region, resulting in higher, closer to normal temperatures for the weekend.
Deep mean layer ridging across the eastern third of the U. Meanwhile, an upper level low north of the Greater Antilles will become cut-off and will initially drift southward and then southwest through the week.
Warm front has finally moved to Highway 20 while low pressure was lifting into the se corner of MN. The strong cold front was entering our western cwa and there have been a few isolated thunderstorms ahead of the front. Warm and humid weather was ahead of the front with early morning temps in the lower 70s with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Key message: Windy and much cooler! Today: We will continue to walk out the storms this morning and then put the severe threat in the rear-view mirror for a while. Otherwise, the day will be windy and much cooler with sunshine returning this afternoon. However, in our eastern counties temps will start out in the lower 70s early this morning, but fall into the 50s by this afternoon. Tonight: Clear and chilly as high pressure builds into the area.