Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Southwest winds on the southwest side of the trough will be in the 15 to 25 mph range with lighter winds to the northeast of the trough. The better low level moisture will be found across the eastern Panhandles on Monday ahead of a Pacific cold front moving from west to east across the area. This front combined with the upper level dynamics from the storm system and the low level moisture may be enough to produce some showers across the eastern Panhandles Monday afternoon and evening.
Impacts in the short term will be related to dense fog and slick conditions due to freezing fog. This has resulted in a pooling of low level moisture that is deep enough to support dense fog, but shallow enough with forcing out of our CWA to limit risk of freezing drizzle. That doesn't mean we do no have potential for slick travel though, as dense freezing fog/rime has been reported and suspended supercooled droplets within these dense fog pockets can still cause icing on untreated surfaces.
538 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 (Today and tonight) Zonal upper flow early this morning will gradually become southwest through the course of the day as a progressive and deepening trough shifts from SOCAL into Arizona. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday, mostly due to cloud cover across the region. Relatively modest southwest winds today will increase overnight as jetmax winds up to 80kts rounding the base of the trough across southern AZ/NM spread across our area.
Otherwise, the highlights remain unchanged. The New Year will begin with the snow moving out of the forecast area and being replaced by an area of ridging.
High pressure aloft centered over Cuba will build while the frontal boundary over Central Florida dissipates today.
518 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 (Today through Monday) Happy New Year! Dense fog has once again developed along the lower Texas coast, with patchy to areas of fog expected to develop across the entire CWA before daybreak. As the next system spins into the Plains from the Four Corners, expect warm southwesterly flow aloft and increasing southerly to southeasterly winds along the lower Texas coast due to the strengthening pressure gradient.
with the lowest visbys primarily confined to locations east of I-55. Despite the cloud cover, southerly winds will boost temperatures several degrees warmer than yesterday as afternoon highs top out in the lower to middle 50s.
Models show a fairly weak ridge setting up over the Northern Rockies early this coming week, with a series of troughs sliding well south. This ridge will allow valley inversions and cold pools to strengthen by mid-week.
Another area of fog and stratus continues to move south out of the north behind a weak cold front. Temperatures will be a touch cooler this afternoon with highs ranging from the low to mid teens north to the low to mid 20s south (a few upper 20s possible across the far southwest). Tonight's lows will range from around zero northeast to the lower teens southwest.
644 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2023 A cold front will push east of Central PA early this morning. Later today and Monday look mainly dry and slightly cooler, as weak high pressure builds over the Commonwealth.
322 AM MST Sun Jan 1 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northern ND, with warm front east of the forecast area and an arctic boundary from northwest ND into southwestern Canada. Low pressure associated with the emerging western US system is across southern NV.
Otherwise, a dry day in store for mid state region as weak surface front bisecting our area west to east pushes south of mid state region this morning and comes back as a warm front across at least southwestern portions of our area late this afternoon. Not expecting mid state to get in range of maximum high temperatures for today, but will be unseasonably warm with highs mid to upper 60s and where that surface warm front pushes into southwestern portions of our area, highs in the lower 70s maybe possible. With a more of a upper level ridging pattern developing as tonight progresses and warm front pushes well north of mid state region, lows tonight will be even warmer than seasonal normal highs, ranging low to mid 50s, upper 40s higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region.
Precip winding down over southern portions of the CWA attm as upper troughing digs southward into SoCal and upstream upper ridging begins to build inland.
(Today and tonight) Zonal upper flow early this morning will gradually become southwest through the course of the day as a progressive and deepening trough shifts from SOCAL into Arizona. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday, mostly due to cloud cover across the region. Relatively modest southwest winds today will increase overnight as jetmax winds up to 80kts rounding the base of the trough across southern AZ/NM spread across our area.
Quiet weather continues for New Years Day with slightly cooler temperatures and light winds.
427 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2023 Fair weather and above average temperatures can be expected today and Monday as High pressure builds across the area.
521 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2023 A cold front will push east of Central PA early this morning. Later today and Monday look mainly dry and slightly cooler, as weak high pressure builds over the Commonwealth.
(Today and tonight) A warm front will continue to slowly nudge northward through the morning hours. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s appear likely across SE OK by sunrise Monday.
Light rain, with some mid evening patchy freezing rain and sleet, has shifted into northeast Illinois in the first few hours of 2023. Tonight, the deep western upper trof will begin to bring lift to the Plains, and with that, falling surface pressures. That will bring in slightly cooler and drier air, and lows in the mid 20s northwest to mid 30s southeast are expected.
Monday night will see the departure of a small ridge and the arrival of the next winter storm system.
225 AM MST Sun Jan 1 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a positively tilted trough exiting the Pac Northwest and California. Further back a positively tilted ridge runs up the coast of California into the Gulf of Alaska. This is proceeded by a developing series of troughs and ridges stretching back over the northern Pacific.
417 AM MST Sun Jan 1 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northern ND, with warm front east of the forecast area and an arctic boundary from northwest ND into southwestern Canada. Low pressure associated with the emerging western US system is across southern NV.
(Today through Monday) Happy New Year! Dense fog has once again developed along the lower Texas coast, with patchy to areas of fog expected to develop across the entire CWA before daybreak. As the next system spins into the Plains from the Four Corners, expect warm southwesterly flow aloft and increasing southerly to southeasterly winds along the lower Texas coast due to the strengthening pressure gradient.
This will be brought about with a combination of mainly southwest winds, some filtered sunshine and a little further strengthening of the 850mb thermal ridge. The flow aloft will become southwest over our area today, out ahead of an upper trough deepening into the Desert Southwest. The upper trough will progress east toward the central and southern Rockies tonight.
504 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2023 Fair weather and above average temperatures can be expected today and Monday as High pressure builds across the area.
1215 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 (Today and tonight) A warm front will continue to slowly nudge northward through the morning hours. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s appear likely across SE OK by sunrise Monday.
Mean-layer ridging centered over Cuba yesterday at this time has flattened and receded deeper into the Western Caribbean. Visibile satellite imagery paints the western extent of low-level ridging over the Bahamas, with surface observations corroborating the placement of the tail-end of a stalled frontal zone over northern Florida. Northeast to east winds average 5 knots or less at the marine observation platforms, with directions backed to the north due to the nearshore temperature gradient (cooler to the north, warmer to the south). The forecast calls for highs in the lower 80s with near nil rain chances.
Finally, a thin and very translucent layer of high clouds off a west CONUS trough continues infiltrating the CWA, especially the southern half.
(This evening through Monday night) The main H500 trough axis continues to move east across Arizona going through this afternoon with a cirrus cloud deck advecting into the Panhandles ahead of the main system. Mid level perturbations downstream of the main trough axis may provide a chance for some rain showers or sprinkles starting after midnight for the western Panhandles. Low temperatures tomorrow night will range from the lower 20s in the NW to mid 30s in the SE.
1001 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2023 Fair weather and above average temperatures can be expected today and Monday as High pressure builds across the area.
A deep upper level low moves into the Four Corners region of the western U. Winds will become strong after midnight in the Guadalupe Mountains, then will increase tomorrow afternoon as the low gets closer and the wind direction shifts from a very favorable westerly direction. Models are showing the low bringing scattered showers from SE NM to the Davis Mountains late tonight into tomorrow.
1137 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 (Today through Monday) Happy New Year! Dense fog has once again developed along the lower Texas coast, with patchy to areas of fog expected to develop across the entire CWA before daybreak. As the next system spins into the Plains from the Four Corners, expect warm southwesterly flow aloft and increasing southerly to southeasterly winds along the lower Texas coast due to the strengthening pressure gradient.
An upper level ridge had begun to build up over the south central and southeast states while surface winds were picking up from the south. This much warmer than normal (but not record setting) pattern will continue the next couple of days. On Monday, our current high pressure system will move off the southeast coast as a deep low pressure system moves out of the Rockies into the plains. This will deepen the low level southerly flow into Tennessee, meaning a good deal of cloudiness, slightly stronger south winds, and increasing humidity. Strengthening southwest flow aloft will develop ahead of the plains trough, and this will bring a disturbance our way late in the day.
1140 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 (Today and tonight) Zonal upper flow early this morning will gradually become southwest through the course of the day as a progressive and deepening trough shifts from SOCAL into Arizona. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday, mostly due to cloud cover across the region. Relatively modest southwest winds today will increase overnight as jetmax winds up to 80kts rounding the base of the trough across southern AZ/NM spread across our area.
1026 AM MST Sun Jan 1 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northern ND, with warm front east of the forecast area and an arctic boundary from northwest ND into southwestern Canada. Low pressure associated with the emerging western US system is across southern NV.
(Rest of today through Monday) After quite the foggy morning across South Florida, we're seeing plenty of sunshine this afternoon with high pressure sitting over the area. High temps this afternoon will peak in the low to mid 80s. Once the fog burns off in the morning, expect partly cloudy skies and remaining warm with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
A few days stretch of relatively quiet weather starts today as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Northern Rockies. We could also be looking at valley freezing fog developing overnight each night, and likely lingering into the early afternoon each day as well.
Current model guidance show a upper ridge building off to our west. With the high clouds blocking some of the insolation, daytime heating should allow for the afternoon temperatures to peak into the upper 70s.
Enriquez PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a positively tilted trough exiting the Pac Northwest and California. Further back a positively tilted ridge runs up the coast of California into the Gulf of Alaska. This is proceeded by a developing series of troughs and ridges stretching back over the northern Pacific.
What's somewhat interesting is that as the storm moves into the Central Plains, a blocking ridge aloft forms north/nw of the upper low. It would appear this ridge will play some role in putting the storm on a more eastward trajectory, thus working to keep most of the snow out of northern South Dakota.
Low-level ridging reaches west to near the Bahamas, with a small anticyclone hanging on over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. With the weak gradient across the Keys, light breezes are tending to the northeast to east, backed a bit due to the cooler Gulf and Bayside waters. Temperatures are near 80 with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Mean layer ridging will hang tight over the Western Caribbean for the next few days, with low-level ridging building west across Florida and the Southeast US. Moisture above 900 mb will be scant despite the freshening east to southeast breezes on the southern flank of the building ridge. The mean layer ridge will concede real estate to the severe weather maker (now near the Four Corners) moving into the Mississippi River Valley.
Rain and snow showers will dissipate tonight as an upper low slowly shifts east away from the area. Still more to come through tonight as current upper low over the area slowly migrates east. Have seen some pockets of heavy rain in the lower Colorado River Valley and southern Mohave County associated with isolated thunderstorms that developed in region of MUCAPE of 100-500 J/KG. Light rain and snow showers in southern Nevada and eastern California will linger into the evening before dissipating, while it will take much of the night for showers to finally dissipate in Mohave County in an area of subsidence behind exiting trough.
18Z observations are showing a large trough over southern California with a 100-110 kt jet streak from Baja California through northern Kansas and Nebraska which is overspreading widespread high and mid level cloud cover. Lows tonight should stay above freezing CWA wide so didn't see the need to include any freezing drizzle wording. I thought the WPC idea of having the highest QPF potential from Scott City to Hays looked good. I kept the low clouds in for much of the day in our northern and eastern zones and hence lowered the high temperatures to the lower to mid 40s. A cold front on the back side of the low will race through northwest Kansas during the evening and southwest Kansas around midnight.
138 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2023 A cold front will push east of Central PA early this morning. Later today and Monday look mainly dry and slightly cooler, as weak high pressure builds over the Commonwealth.
1241 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions through Monday.
Latest GOES east Day-Snow-Fog RGB channel shows the dense fog eroding from southeast to northwest slowly as a warm front remains stalled across the region. Showers will develop overnight tonight and spread across the Lower Mississippi Valley by tomorrow morning.
Little change to the forecast this morning, as high pressure builds into the local area. Light winds today, with highs reaching the upper 70s north of I-4 and the lower 80s to the south.
242 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2023 Dry and mild through Monday courtesy of high pressure.
310 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2023 Weak high pressure will bring rain free weather for most of the region through Monday.
A low pressure system will move through California on Monday night bringing another round of precipitation to the area.
Several locations have climbed into the low to mid 70s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Warm and increasingly more humid conditions will funnel into the Mid-South tomorrow morning as a secondary warm front lifts across the region.
Low level moisture will linger tonight and wind will remain light as high pressure pushes in from the northern plains. Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing, except for maybe far southeast Wisconsin, so some slick spots due to freezing fog are possible. Patchy fog or freezing fog is possible elsewhere across southern Wisconsin, but confidence is lower. Rain or freezing rain is expected during the evening and overnight. There is uncertainty with overnight temperataures but low look to be right around freezing north and west of Madison where the best chance of freezing rain occurs. Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing after sunrise. Snow is not as likely with the dendrite growth zone only partially saturated and a warm nose of 3 to 5 deg in the low levels.
612 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2023 (Rest of today through Monday) After quite the foggy morning across South Florida, we're seeing plenty of sunshine this afternoon with high pressure sitting over the area. High temps this afternoon will peak in the low to mid 80s. Once the fog burns off in the morning, expect partly cloudy skies and remaining warm with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
Valley fog in the mornings will become more of an issue under stable high pressure. An upper level ridge building over the Pacific Coast places our region under a light northerly flow aloft. With the valley temperature inversions, freezing fog becomes possible as well, especially for the Gallatin and lower Milk River valleys where significant snowpack remains.
800 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2023 Weak high pressure will bring rain free weather for most of the region through Monday.
Once this system passes, dry and cooler weather will prevail for the rest of the work week.
They are southwesterly over the high mountains. Was also hard pressed to just drop the Watch over the eastern plains, so went with an Advisory for those areas as there will be some snow along with the chance of freezing precipitation. The freezing precipitation could make very slippery driving conditons. For temperatures, Monday's highs are a bit cooler than current readings are now.
Meanwhile, moisture will increase across the western tier of the CWA as the warm sector and moisture field of said low pressure system approach.
741 PM MST Sun Jan 1 2023 Light snow was spreading into the southern mountains this evening as an upper low slides east through the Great Basin. Upper low transiting eastward across the Great Basin and into the central plains states will bring a glancing blow of light snow to areas along the MT/WY border tonight through Monday night. Looking at an inch or two at most for the lower elevations, with the Bighorn mountains picking up 3 to 6 inches. Upper trof slides through from the north tonight helping to hold that southern system out of our area.
241 PM MST Sun Jan 1 2023 Snow is ongoing across much of central and southern Wyoming as a trough swings east over the Great Basin.
605 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2023 (Through Tonight) Weak high pressure over the region and mild/moist airmass in place along with light winds will continue to support widespread dense fog potential tonight. Lows generally falling into the lower to middle 50s for SE GA and middle/upper 50s for NE FL as winds go near calm during the overnight hours.
Upper low transiting eastward across the Great Basin and into the central plains states will bring a glancing blow of light snow to areas along the MT/WY border tonight through Monday night. Looking at an inch or two at most for the lower elevations, with the Bighorn mountains picking up 3 to 6 inches. Upper trof slides through from the north tonight helping to hold that southern system out of our area.
508 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 (This evening through Monday night) The main H500 trough axis continues to move east across Arizona going through this afternoon with a cirrus cloud deck advecting into the Panhandles ahead of the main system. Mid level perturbations downstream of the main trough axis may provide a chance for some rain showers or sprinkles starting after midnight for the western Panhandles. Low temperatures tomorrow night will range from the lower 20s in the NW to mid 30s in the SE.
With the center of the high in transition, how long dense fog persists is uncertain tonight. Finally, a thin and very translucent layer of high clouds off a west CONUS trough continues infiltrating the CWA, especially the southern half.
A second stronger round of thunderstorms remains slated for the evening/nighttime hours with the arrival/passage of a cold front.
Weak high pressure will try to build in tomorrow but temperatures will remain below normal for the start to the New Year.
510 PM MST Sun Jan 1 2023 Snow is ongoing across much of central and southern Wyoming as a trough swings east over the Great Basin.
323 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 Rather quiet overnight with high pressure nosing in from the west as stratus deck lingers across the area. Fog formation tonight less likley to be widespread and dense like last night with weak westerly flow and drier cooler air advecting into the area overnight. Monday will continue to be cloudy even if some break in the lower clouds occur as high clouds overspread from the southwest as storm system takes shape across the central plains.
530 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 Rather quiet overnight with high pressure nosing in from the west as stratus deck lingers across the area. Fog formation tonight less likley to be widespread and dense like last night with weak westerly flow and drier cooler air advecting into the area overnight. Monday will continue to be cloudy even if some break in the lower clouds occur as high clouds overspread from the southwest as storm system takes shape across the central plains.
The coverage of fog tonight is still uncertain, forecast soundings don't really saturate in the lower levels and visibility guidance from the HRRR has backed off on the fog potential. With the center of the high in transition, how long dense fog persists is uncertain tonight. Finally, a thin and very translucent layer of high clouds off a west CONUS trough continues infiltrating the CWA, especially the southern half.
This was after highs in the afternoon which were mostly in the lower 70s. The lower altitude clouds moving in, and a light wind (should it continue) will again likely help keep fog formation limited as was the case last night. The low clouds will not overspread all of the area, especially the eastern third of the area in the late night, so cannot totally rule out patchy fog development.
1031 PM MST Sun Jan 1 2023 Snow is ongoing across much of central and southern Wyoming as a trough swings east over the Great Basin.
As the main upper low moves from NW AZ this evening to the four corners by sunrise, a moist and somewhat unstable air mass will continue overnight, favoring occasional heavy snow showers above 4500-5000 feet elevation.
Upper ridging to the east should hold strong over our area and this will likely keep the atmosphere capped to stronger convection from Monday through Monday night, despite increased thermodynamic instability and increasing deep layer shear.
1254 AM EST Mon Jan 2 2023 (Rest of today through Monday) After quite the foggy morning across South Florida, we're seeing plenty of sunshine this afternoon with high pressure sitting over the area. High temps this afternoon will peak in the low to mid 80s. Once the fog burns off in the morning, expect partly cloudy skies and remaining warm with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
1129 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2023 An approaching warm front will bring rain to much of the Commonwealth on Tuesday.
More generally speaking, South Florida remains under the influence of an area of high pressure, resulting in dry and pleasant conditions through the short term. The high pressure will start moving eastward over the Atlantic waters today and tomorrow as a low pressure system develops over the Midwest and an associated cold front travels across the southeastern states. This will allow for light easterly to southeasterly winds and high temperatures in the low-mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s across South FL.