Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
West of this feature, high amplitude ridging extended from the eastern Pacific, north through the Gulf of Alaska into central portions of Alaska. Across the eastern CONUS, high pressure was anchored over South Carolina. At the surface tonight, a cold front extended from far southwestern Kansas, to far southeastern Nebraska and north central Iowa. Strong high pressure (~ 1034 MB) was anchored over northern Montana tonight. Later this evening, clouds will increase as an upper level trough dives south from Idaho into northern Nevada and northern Utah.
Further upstream, another upper level trough axis extends from central Alberta into Oregon with broad cyclonic flow extending southward into the SW US. Increasing clouds expected later today ahead of the aforementioned trough pushing through the northwestern US.
216 AM MDT Fri Oct 27 2023 The Fall snowstorm has exited the area with a filling upper low over north central North Dakota. The main upper trough over the northern Rockies will slide across the forecast area on Saturday. Trough axis was sharp enough that would not be surprised to see brief periods of light snow here and there over central and eastern zones, but will confine the PoPs, for now, over the higher terrain. Temperatures will remain well below normal on Saturday, with highs in the lower to mid 20s.
1038 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 (Rest of tonight) Local weather conditions across the TN Valley overnight will remain dominated by a strong mid-level anticyclone centered across the southeastern Atlantic Coast. Layers of altostratus/cirrostratus clouds originating within a broad warm conveyor belt (extending from south TX into the Lower Great Lakes) will spread eastward in this regime, and this, along with dewpoints in the m-u 50s and a SE flow of 5-10 MPH, will lead to another mild night featuring lows ranging from the m-u 50s (northeast AL) to l-m 60s elsewhere.
259 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Strong high pressure will remain anchored over the forecast area into this weekend generating above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
Will keep any BLSN mention to this zone in the western fcst area where snow amounts the past few days have been more than 6 inches and temps are in the low 20s.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) The main story for the short term will be the arrival of a cold front late this morning into the early afternoon. Highs remain about the same to the south of the front, but areas to the north and east will be slightly cooler and may struggle to reach 70F due to clouds and isolated showers.
1247 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Southwest flow aloft will remain in place across the region with H500 ridging to the southeast and troughing across the western US. At the sfc, a cold front will slowly progress toward the state from the northwest.
923 PM MDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Most recent upper air analysis and water vapor show broad upper trough over the western CONUS, while a closed high sits over the southeast US with the ridge running up the east coast.
1203 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 (This evening through Friday night) Cooler temperatures and gusty winds continue to highlight an otherwise quiet couple days weather-wise for the Panhandles as a cold front moves through the area overnight. As the low moves east, a cold front will drop south in its wake, bringing back breezy/gusty north winds overnight. Resulting CAA will make for morning lows noticeably cooler than previous mornings, with highs topping out in the mid 50s to low 60s by tomorrow afternoon.
Some uncertainty remains in the location of the higher snow amounts as a relatively skinny band of snow is expected. Highs generally int he lower to mid 30s and a touch warmer in northwest IA. High pressure at the surface buries southward which will aid in locking in the colder air. Lows will not be as cold as they might with high pressure nearby as clouds increase ahead of the next mid level wave. While winds will not be light, gusts less than 15 mph for the most part should alleviate any concerns of blowing snow, not to mention the warmer ground and wetter nature of the snow.
Very strong mid-level high pressure will prevail through this weekend, maintaining well above normal temperatures.
Highs will slowly increase Friday and Saturday with readings in the low to mid 80s. Did bump highs up tomorrow a degree or two from the NBM with the MAV MOS around 3-5 degrees warmer than NBM.
A front will try to approach the area but will be halted by the ridge in place, over the Eastern CONUS, and never make it into the area during the short term. Therefore, temperatures will remain around the same, albeit much warmer than normal. Look for highs to be in the low to mid 80s, with lows in the 50s to low 60s.
409 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023 High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain across the region through the weekend.
(Today through Saturday Night ) An upper level high pressure system is over the southeast U. An upper trough moves into the northern U. The upper high remains strong over the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday night. High pressure continues centered over the Carolinas. A cold front is located in eastern Kansas and western Oklahoma. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s and Saturday will be cooler in the upper 50s north to mid 80s south.
Offshore flow will establish across the Pacific NW bringing frost and freezing overnight temperatures over the weekend.
Forecast highs remain on track, expected to top out in the lower to mid 80s despite the cloud cover.
The dewpoint at Medford has been holding at 36, which would prevent the air temperature from reaching freezing.
528 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 High pressure to the east will continue to promote SSW flow, with the stream of moisture confined to the far north and west. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
646 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 (Today through Saturday) Key Messages: - Rain chances continue today, but diminish into the weekend - Minor Coastal Flooding along Area Beaches the next few days Mid level moisture is following along the periphery of the 500 mb ridge, positioned over the eastern Gulf/SE US. So the best chances (30- 40%)will be today, but will be falling through the afternoon and evening as the 500 mb ridge retrogrades west again.
539 AM MDT Fri Oct 27 2023 - Winter storm is expected to bring heavy snowfall across the mountains starting late tonight, then spreading into the lower elevations this weekend. Low clouds and some wind has kept some areas above freezing this morning, but plenty of time this morning to drop below freezing. The models keep a strong west-southwesterly flow aloft over the region, ahead of the next approaching trough. Southeasterly winds will keep a Denver cyclone in place today. Cooler south of I-70.
438 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Key Messages: - The well-advertised cold front is moving across the area this morning and should be through the entire area shortly after sunrise.
This will send a cold front into Indiana by late in the day. Some partial clearing during the afternoon may help augment ongoing warm advection enough to push southwest portions of central Indiana into the low 80s for maximum temperatures.
Warmer air will slowly move back into the area on Saturday, but it will take about a week or so for afternoon temperatures to start to to approach near normal readings.
731 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023 High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain across the region through the weekend.
These lows will be notably frigid for this time of year, with widespread single-digit temperatures across western Montana and lows ranging from the low teens to low 20s for much of north-central Idaho. To put things into perspective, the average lows for this weekend typically hover in the low 30s in the valleys of central Idaho and mid to upper 20s in the valleys of western Montana.
Dry conditions continue for the week with temperatures cooler than normal over the weekend with highs in the 30s to 40s and lows dropping to near single digits. Today through Saturday An upper level trough remains over northwestern portions of the U.
402 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Key Messages: - A cold front moves through this morning, bringing much colder temperatures behind it.
Above normal temperatures will persist through Saturday as a cold front remains stalled to the northwest of the region.
735 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Aviation - Strong storms possible this afternoon It appears that the cold front arrival this afternoon will be slightly delayed.
442 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 High pressure to the east will continue to promote SSW flow, with the stream of moisture confined to the far north and west. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain across the region through the weekend.
A shallow cold front will then push across the area between 02-06Z this evening. Southeast MI will be positioned between a retreating upper ridge over the SE CONUS and longwave troughing expanding across Canada this week, with a strengthening jet stream overhead directing an active pattern over the next few days. This results in highs in the lower to mid 70s for most of SE MI with some upper 70s not out of the question in the far southeast into Metro Detroit. The Midwest system tracks well to the north tonight, dragging a strong cold front across the area this evening. The cold front sweeps east and out of the area shortly after midnight with showers departing with it.
628 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Key Messages: - A cold front moves through this morning, bringing much colder temperatures behind it.
310 AM PDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Chilly high pressure will build across the Pacific Northwest through the weekend.
531 AM PDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Chilly high pressure will build across the Pacific Northwest through the weekend.
The northeast to east winds will continue to bring high moisture content from the Bahamas, keeping the lower levels saturated and primed for shower development. Due to a stout high pressure area, windy conditions will persist in the Florida Keys.
555 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) The main story for the short term will be the arrival of a cold front late this morning into the early afternoon. Highs remain about the same to the south of the front, but areas to the north and east will be slightly cooler and may struggle to reach 70F due to clouds and isolated showers.
moisture in the 850-700mb layer slowly increases from the south during the day for all but a few counties in the southwest portion of the area with moisture in the 850-500mb layer increasing across the northwest portion of the area with the approach of a large scale trough axis. With surface temperatures a few degrees around freezing and 850mb temperatures around -6C to -8C one would expect the predominant precipitation type to be light snow. For the overnight hours, we'll continue with a wintry mix during the evening with a change over to all snow from northwest to southeast as better moisture with the upper trough moves over the area.
Upper level analysis places broad trough over the northern Rockies into the northern plains.
646 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 (Today through Saturday Night ) An upper level high pressure system is over the southeast U. An upper trough moves into the northern U. The upper high remains strong over the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday night. High pressure continues centered over the Carolinas. A cold front is located in eastern Kansas and western Oklahoma. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s and Saturday will be cooler in the upper 50s north to mid 80s south.
504 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Strong high pressure will persist over the forecast area into this weekend, generating above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
639 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 (Today) A strong cold front is moving through northwest Oklahoma and into southeast Kansas early this morning, currently located near a Cherokee OK, Andover, KS.
Key Messages: - The well-advertised cold front is moving across the area this morning and should be through the entire area shortly after sunrise.
638 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Above normal temperatures will persist through Saturday as a cold front remains stalled to the northwest of the region.
Also looking at temperatures across the High Plains across western Kansas and Nebraska and eastern Colorado and Wyoming, 06Z/08Z temperatures are in general a few degrees cooler than most of the models suggest as well.
(Today through Saturday) Key Messages: - Rain chances continue today, but diminish into the weekend - Minor Coastal Flooding along Area Beaches the next few days Mid level moisture is following along the periphery of the 500 mb ridge, positioned over the eastern Gulf/SE US. So the best chances (30- 40%)will be today, but will be falling through the afternoon and evening as the 500 mb ridge retrogrades west again.
Some lingering flurries further south and west into the northern Red River Valley as we get a bit more moisture wrapping around the low, should taper off in the next few hours. Impacts should be fairly minor as the low pressure system pulls away from the area. Will keep any BLSN mention to this zone in the western fcst area where snow amounts the past few days have been more than 6 inches and temps are in the low 20s.
Recent KBYX radar loops place two swaths of squalls surrounding the Lower Keys, with portions of the Middle and Upper Keys drying out.
Expect similar low temperatures tonight given the arctic high pressure still in place over the region through Saturday morning.
High pressure over the southeast US will maintain E/ENE flow over the area, becoming breezy at times, mainly along the coast. Highs today near-normal for the date, reaching the lower 80s for most locations, with some mid-80s possible over the interior and southern Treasure Coast. Onshore flow will keep overnight lows warmer than normal, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
651 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Very strong mid-level high pressure will prevail through this weekend, maintaining well above normal temperatures.
The ridge will gradually edge east as a broad trough to our west slowly deepens. A surface cold front stretching from the western Great Lakes region to the southern Plains will sag southeast, but will stay to our northwest during the short term period.
202 PM MDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Massive arctic high pressure is covering the Northern Plains with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary in place to the south of the FA. Secondary cold front will push into the region Sat with breezy NW winds developing, esp on the SD plains.
Looking at current water vapor imagery there is a positive tilted trough dropping out of Canada. Winds will be breezy, 15 to 25 mph, over the Snake plain with the convergence line created by colder polar/arctic air dropping down with the trough. With the trough dropping down tonight into tomorrow morning, even colder air is expected with the northerly flow and polar/arctic air expected from Canada.
139 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Strong high pressure will persist over the forecast area into this weekend, generating above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
With the cold high pressure system in place over the High Plains, lows will drop into the teens for most areas. Temperatures will just stay cold on Saturday with the high pressure system still in place over the High Plains, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
327 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023 (Rest of today through Saturday) A deep layer ridge centered over the Southeastern portion of the country will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida for the rest of this afternoon through Saturday. Winds could continue to gust between 25 and 30 mph with the highest gusts remaining over the east coast this afternoon as well as Saturday afternoon. With strong high pressure in place, plenty of mid to upper level dry air remains over the region. High temperatures on Saturday will generally range from the mid 80s across the east coast metro areas to the lower 90s over interior portions of Southwest Florida.
The axis of the deep upper level trough shifts SE across MT through late Saturday with cold high pressure at the surface peaking over central MT tonight.
315 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023 A potent low pressure system is deepening as it moves northeast over southern Ontario this afternoon. A sharp cold front extends southwest through Milwaukee WI and Springfield MO. The southwesterly LLJ over the Lower Ohio Valley has steadily weakened throughout the day, and the ongoing light rain is expected to gradually diminish over the next few hours. Late tonight into early Saturday morning, rain chances again increase from northwest to southeast as the sfc cold front approaches. This potent storm system continues to accelerate northeastward across Quebec tonight into Saturday, and the sfc cold front will begin to stall over central KY on Saturday as it becomes parallel to the upper level flow. Temperatures around 65-70 should be common closer to the Bluegrass Parkway, with highs in the low to mid 70s across south-central KY.
Although air temps are still well below freezing there has been enough insolation with October sun angles to get some melting on paved surfaces, so impacts are not as high with this falling snow as last night. Some lingering flurries further south and west into the northern Red River Valley as we get a bit more moisture wrapping around the low, should taper off in the next few hours. Impacts should be fairly minor as the low pressure system pulls away from the area. Will keep any BLSN mention to this zone in the western fcst area where snow amounts the past few days have been more than 6 inches and temps are in the low 20s.
203 PM MDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Deep upper trough is in place over North America today but will drift to our east Saturday allowing for a NW flow regime to take place.
A few lingering snow showers or flurries continue across the northern Red River Valley into northwestern MN as a embedded vort moves through the base of the trough.
(Tonight through Saturday night) An upper ridge remains centered over Florida while a trough is over most of the Western CONUS. At the surface, a high pressure system is dropping out of Canada into the plains while another ridge is over the southeast states and nearshore Atlantic. Between the two air masses a cold front stretches from New Mexico and North Texas to Lake Superior. Deeper moisture associated with the remnants of Otis is lifting north ahead of the cold front and across South and East Texas. The isolated to scattered showers earlier today across the Lower Rio Grande Valley and Kenedy Ranch area was associated with this moisture. Through tonight and Saturday the aforementioned upper features will shift slightly east while the strong cold front drops south.
1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Key Messages: - A cold front moves through this morning, bringing much colder temperatures behind it.
1259 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 (The rest of today) A strong cold front continues to move southeastward through the forecast area this morning. Behind the front, temperatures have quickly fallen into the low-mid 50s. A thin line of moderate to heavy rainfall has developed along the cold front.
Scattered showers will reemerge this morning ahead of a cold front with occasional thunderstorms east of Interstate 55 later in the day. There is a strong cold front making its way through Central Illinois this afternoon, resulting in a broken line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms just to the south of the region. Along with the precipitation, this the front will bring notably cooler temperatures to the region on breezy northwest winds. In fact, clearing skies across our north will allow morning lows to approach the freezing mark, but winds look to be strong enough to preclude frost development in those areas.
Overnight lows are forecast in the same area to be in the lower 60s, with slightly warmer mid 60 temps in northwestern AL/southwestern TN due to lingering upper level clouds.
Cold Front To Bring Changing Temperatures And Rain Chances At this hour, a strong cold front was making its way southward through west central Texas and should stall this evening over the Concho Valley. By mid-morning, the highest thunderstorm chances will start to move northward to the Big Country as the front will slowly retreat northward and stall again along the I-20 corridor.
Main change is that high temperatures are turning out to be several degrees cooler than previously expected behind last night's cold front, with most places struggling to get out of the 50s. As a result, highs will range from the low 40s in the northeast to upper 50s in the west. Main focus Saturday night shifts to the anticipated strong cold front, and the onset of freezing rain. Model forecast soundings continue to depict an environment conducive for freezing rain as the dominant precip type behind the front as the shallow cold air mass undercuts warmer air aloft. For the northern Panhandles, if the warm nose is able to erode enough through the night, there could be enough of an opportunity for hydrometeors to re-freeze into sleet/ice-pellets and mix in with freezing rain.
309 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Key Messages: - Warmer than average high temperatures tomorrow in the 80s. This high will be centered over central Georgia tomorrow, keeping subsidence in place and allowing for little more than afternoon cu field development.
Afternoon cumulus field signals the presence of decent low-level moisture in place over most of the area, and it should be noted that dew points beneath this deck are holding on in the low to mid 60s in southern parts of our forecast area. /NF/ High pressure to the east will continue to promote SSW flow, with the stream of moisture confined to the far north and west. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
1043 AM PDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Chilly high pressure will build across the Pacific Northwest through the weekend.
1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 (Today through Saturday Night ) An upper level high pressure system is over the southeast U. An upper trough moves into the northern U. The upper high remains strong over the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday night. High pressure continues centered over the Carolinas. A cold front is located in eastern Kansas and western Oklahoma. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s and Saturday will be cooler in the upper 50s north to mid 80s south.
Below freezing temperatures and light winds this morning will produce frost. Well-below freezing temperatures and clear skies at TAF sites each night/morning will produce frost.
(The rest of today) A strong cold front continues to move southeastward through the forecast area this morning. Behind the front, temperatures have quickly fallen into the low-mid 50s. A thin line of moderate to heavy rainfall has developed along the cold front.
1221 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) The main story for the short term will be the arrival of a cold front late this morning into the early afternoon. Highs remain about the same to the south of the front, but areas to the north and east will be slightly cooler and may struggle to reach 70F due to clouds and isolated showers.
233 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Key Message: Freezing temperatures are expected tonight, especially in the northwest 1/2 of the area. The sharp cold front moved through during the morning hours in Iowa, and early afternoon in Illinois, pretty much as expected. This post frontal activity is more associated with the 850mb cold frontal boundary, which is allowing the anafrontal forcing. Cold advection has held northwest Iowa below freezing today, pretty impressive! This cold advection alone should allow temperatures to fall into the lower 30s tonight, and any clearing would allow temperatures to drop a bit farther, resulting in a freeze in the northwestern CWA.