Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Arizona currently sits just downstream of an upper level trough, based in southern California. Surface dewpoints in the 50s over the high terrain have ensured near saturation at the ground level. At this time, isolated to scattered activity is expected, with greatest coverage over the high terrain.
530 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 520PM UPDATE: Pressure gradient along the cold frontal passage coming in from the north has bumped up the winds high enough to becomes a threat to wave heights across Fort Peck Lake. The pattern for most of the upcoming week still looks dominated by hot and dry conditions on the northern end of a ridge building across the western part of the country.
A surface pressure trough was draped across the western South Plains which will contribute to weak low level convergence through this evening. Although the lower levels of the atmosphere are dry, a strong mid-level moisture plume rotating around the western side of the ridge will likely allow isolated to scattered convection to develop. The upper ridge will not budge from its current location over southeast Texas with the monsoonal moisture plume remaining in place on the west side of the ridge. A surface pressure trough extending from the central Texas Panhandle into eastern New Mexico may again enhance low level convergence to see isolated to scattered convection beginning in the mid-afternoon.
452 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Embedded impulses in the flow around the upper ridge centered over Texas will provide synoptic scale lift for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. On Sunday, cold front on track to move through western areas Sunday morning and eastern areas Sunday afternoon.
740 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Severe thunderstorms with potential for large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and isolated tornadoes are expected ahead of a cold front this evening.
134 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will end tonight with the passage of a cold front.
Upper level ridge axis remains across the area, although it does shift east just a little. Models are showing some small decrease in 850MB temperatures this afternoon, so the NBM which has generally been trending a degree or two cooler today looks reasonable. Cold front to the north will not have an affect today, but will start tonight as it slides into the Big Country after midnight.
-A much cooler and drier air mass moves into the area tomorrow. After a few dry hours midday, attention will then turn to a cold front approaching northeast KS from the north.
1016 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Most recent Water Vapor and upper air analysis shows northwest flow over our region, with an upper low over Ontario and mild ridging over the West coast. Sunday will be much cooler, with highs only in the 60s and 70s. Compact upper trough moving across the northern Plains will continue to bring chances for showers and possibly a few thundershowers through much of the day.
343 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 After patchy morning fog and low clouds, dry weather is expected today under building high pressure.
230 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Another wave of showers and thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front makes its way across central and southeastern Illinois.
1220 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Weak ridging, reduced moisture, and minimal convergence following the passage of a cold front earlier today should keep a lid on any additional shower and thunderstorm chances until at least late Sunday.
With the recent wet ground daytime temperatures warming into the lower 90s south to lower 80s north look reasonable which is near normal for this time of year.
245 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Current surface analysis shows cold front moving southeast across the area, now located from southern portions of northeast WY and the Black Hills area to north central SD, with gusty north- northwest winds developing behind it. Scattered showers and a bit of thunder accompany the trough from far northeast WY to northwest SD and the Black Hills area. A unsettled, cool, and windy day is in store as the upper trough tracks southeast across the northern Plains. Highs will only be in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the Plains, cooler over the higher Black Hills. The weather beyond today looks to be rather quiet, with a more typical late summer pattern for mid to late week, as ridging builds over the western US and warmer air returns.
An abnormally strong ridge of high pressure will begin moving into the region later today, and remain the dominate weather feature for much of this coming week.
1233 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 (The rest of tonight) Shower and thunderstorms to our west across Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas will continue to spread east into the area overnight as the low level jet strengthens.
* Cooler today and tomorrow with the cold front sliding through this afternoon.
143 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Upper ridging builds over the region this weekend resulting in hot and mainly dry weather conditions.
With less lingering cloud cover overnight, temperatures should be a bit cooler than last night. Arizona currently sits just downstream of an upper level trough, based in southern California. Surface dewpoints in the 50s over the high terrain have ensured near saturation at the ground level. At this time, isolated to scattered activity is expected, with greatest coverage over the high terrain.
The next wave, and surface cold front, is producing widespread showers over western North Dakota, with a few embedded thunderstorms over southwest ND and north central SD. The cold front and upper level trough will cross the CWA today, bringing widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. The convective potential should increase over far eastern South Dakota where instability may briefly increase ahead of the cold front.
253 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 A robust/persistent line of strong to severe thunderstorms tracked across east central Wyoming & the northern Nebraska Panhandle over night in association w/ the cold frontal passage. Isolated to widely scattered rain showers can be expected post-fropa with potential for pockets of light drizzle along the Pine Ridge during the AM hours with the initial moist upslope behind the front. Otherwise, much cooler for today as H7 temperatures continue to plunge to between +4 and +8 C over the CWA through 00z this evening. Very little threat for precipitation after today as upper-level ridging and associated subsidence slowly builds into the region.
Today and tonight: Hot and dry conditions will continue today as upper ridging remains the predominant influence.
(Today) Strong upper ridge pattern remains layered from the southern Plains into the western Gulf Coast. Outside of any showers/tstms, the upper ridge axis stretching into parts of the central Gulf Coast states will allow afternoon highs to climb well into the lower/mid 90s.
132 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Aviation The weak cold front moved through earlier bringing a line of showers and storms through the region. While the cooler air will only slightly reduce Daytime highs today. Cooler temps in the upper 50s, calming winds and skies that should be clear through at least mid evening should allow for shallow patchy fog tonight into tomorrow morning. A layer of clouds could build in tomorrow morning in the wake of the exiting mid level low with the positively tilted trough. Weak high pressure will dominate the weather Sunday leading to fair weather.
Strong cold front is still forecast to move into northwest Oklahoma late this afternoon as upper trough progresses over the northern and central Plains. Deep layer shear and instability are expected to be sufficient to support severe hail and wind across the northern half of Oklahoma where the highest PoPs will be confined tonight. Farther south, there is more influence from mid level ridge and warmer temperatures aloft.
Embedded impulses in the flow around the upper ridge centered over Texas will provide synoptic scale lift for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. On Sunday, cold front on track to move through western areas Sunday morning and eastern areas Sunday afternoon.
159 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 For the short term period, below average temperatures will be seen by most of the area as a cold front moves through during the day today. The forecast then calls for it to continue to move southeast with most of the Tri-State area in the wake of the cold front by the noon hour. With drier and cooler air advecting in and winds lightening as the pressure gradient weakens, cooler lows are forecasted with a few 40's possible near the Tri-State border. Temperatures will undergo a couple of warming trends before and after a cold front mid-week.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid 70s.
- Much cooler with gusty winds today. This convective activity will end early this morning as the synoptic energy gets pushed eastward by an upper low moving thorugh the High Plains and opening the door for a cold front to move through Nebraska from the northwest. However short wave energy rounding the base of the upper low will combine with some lingering instability aloft to keep a stray shower or thunderstorm possible through this afternoon mainly along and east of Highway 83. Temperatures today will be noticeably cooler with highs only ranging from around 70 degrees near the SD border to the upper 70s south of Interstate 80.
1229 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) High pressure continues to be the dominate feature for the short term keeping temperatures abnormally hot, and the forecast rain free.
1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 (This evening through Sunday night) Subtropical moisture will continue to be brought northward over the Panhandles through Sunday night between high pressure to our east and low pressure to our west. On Sunday, an upper level disturbance on the bottom side of an upper level low moving through the northern plains will help to form more showers and thunderstorms across our area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Sunday night aided by a southward moving cold front.
1137 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will end tonight with the passage of a cold front.
For storm potential, there is a downward trend in storm potential as the cold front works in. Kept the highest pops along the Oklahoma border and across the eastern zones. These areas will interact with the higher PWATs and front for a longer period of time.
252 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Weak ridging, reduced moisture, and minimal convergence following the passage of a cold front earlier today should keep a lid on any additional shower and thunderstorm chances until at least late Sunday.
722 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 After patchy morning fog and low clouds, dry weather is expected today under building high pressure.
457 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Current surface analysis shows cold front moving southeast across the area, now located from southern portions of northeast WY and the Black Hills area to north central SD, with gusty north- northwest winds developing behind it. Scattered showers and a bit of thunder accompany the trough from far northeast WY to northwest SD and the Black Hills area. A unsettled, cool, and windy day is in store as the upper trough tracks southeast across the northern Plains. Highs will only be in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the Plains, cooler over the higher Black Hills. The weather beyond today looks to be rather quiet, with a more typical late summer pattern for mid to late week, as ridging builds over the western US and warmer air returns.
Weak disturbances continue to circle the upper-level ridge to the east of the area. What this means is temperatures try to decrease but these slightly cooler temperatures remain confined to the western half of the region. The cold front continues to sag south across our region through the afternoon. The best chance remains across the western half of the region but more isolated thunderstorms may develop along and behind the cold front across the Permian Basin as well. Needless to say, any cooler weather and rainfall is greatly appreciated.
The next wave, and surface cold front, is producing widespread showers over western North Dakota, with a few embedded thunderstorms over southwest ND and north central SD. The cold front and upper level trough will cross the CWA today, bringing widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. The convective potential should increase over far eastern South Dakota where instability may briefly increase ahead of the cold front. Low temperatures tonight may drop into the low to mid 50s. Lows could be warmer due to cloud cover.
735 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Upper ridging continues to slowly build eastward into the southeast through the remainder of the weekend and into Monday.
High pressure continues influencing Gulf waters with light southerly winds turning onshore each afternoon with the sea breeze. An increase in showers and storms over the waters is expected during the week as moisture gradually increases over the region in advance of a cold front approaching the waters mid to late week.
555 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Today and tonight: Hot and dry conditions will continue today as upper ridging remains the predominant influence.
Clouds and cold advection in the low levels will make for high temperatures around five degrees below normal. An upper low is forecast to move from the Dakotas to Southern Minnesota tonight, and across Northern Illinois Monday.
835 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 High pressure will slowly build into the region today but quickly give way to another low pressure system passing through the region Monday night. High pressure will again build into the region for the middle part of the week. A slow clearing trend this morning as a low pressure system and cold front move into New England. High pressure is expected to build into the area this afternoon and tonight to accelerate the clearing trend this afternoon. With high pressure building over the region tonight winds become light. High pressure though looks to quickly give way to our next system with enough lift and moisture present for increasing clouds and a few showers toward mid and late afternoon.
Disturbances riding along the periphery of a deep south ridge, along with several convective low level boundaries, will keep chances for thunderstorms in the forecast. Lapse rates and capes do not look quite as strong as we saw yesterday, but the atmosphere will still be plenty unstable with capes around 3000 J/kg and dews in the low to mid 70s. Monday looks hotter and very humid ahead of an approaching cold front. For Monday temps, we are leaning toward the higher end of guidance, and it could be even hotter than our forecast with southwest winds and compressional heating ahead of the front.
925 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 A weak cold front will stall across southern Maryland and central Virginia this evening before retreating north as a warm front Monday.
356 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 A cold front is currently dropping south across the area, associated with a Canadian trough pushing into the northern Great Plains. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today east of the Divide, with highs peaking in the 60s and 70s.
624 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) Hot and humid conditions will persist across much of the state today as H500 ridging remains just to the south. At the sfc, a cold front will be making similar progress southeastward across Missouri. Ahead of the cold front another hot and humid day is expected across at least the southern half of the state. The front should clear much of the area by Monday evening with drier air and cooler temperatures building in.
Highs reaching the mid to upper 90s in the Warning area (with heat indices up to 115) and the lower to mid 90s in the Advisory area (with heat indices up to 112). The main difference between the two areas will be a quicker sea breeze initiation and progression along the Treasure Coast, as well as increased moisture surging northward from south Florida this afternoon, due to the northward progression of the Atlantic ridge axis. The 10Z XMR sounding found 500mb temperatures slightly cooler than global models currently forecast (-5C as opposed to -4C). The Atlantic ridge axis drifts slightly northward today, advecting in higher moisture from the south.
Generally dry conditions will persist as we shift from one ridge to northwest flow mid-week to another ridge by the weekend.
The difference maker will be a broad vort max rotating around the SoCal closed low lifting up over southern Nevada and surrounding areas bringing some upward forcing due to vorticity advection and slight cooling near 500 mb. The latest HRRR and other high res models indicate scattered convective cells rapidly breaking out 18-21Z across these counties and moving toward the west-northwest at 15-20 mph in the cyclonic flow around the upper low. Convection will diminish this evening and overnight then Monday looks to be a down day as the closed low retrogrades off shore and brings drier and more stable air over most of our region.
Likewise, better forcing will be available as the high to our east shifts closer.
919 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 A weak cold front will stall across southern Maryland and central Virginia this evening before retreating north as a warm front Monday.
636 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 High pressure will slowly build into the region today but quickly give way to another low pressure system passing through the region Monday night. High pressure will again build into the region for the middle part of the week. A slow clearing trend this morning as a low pressure system and cold front move into New England. High pressure is expected to build into the area this afternoon and tonight to accelerate the clearing trend this afternoon. With high pressure building over the region tonight winds become light. High pressure though looks to quickly give way to our next system with enough lift and moisture present for increasing clouds and a few showers toward mid and late afternoon.
With large hail parameters between 4-6, large hail up to golf balls will be a secondary threat, especially with any supercells that form ahead of the cold front.
While confidence is low, model guidance suggests that there could be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the waters, as a weak inverted trough develops late tonight and into Monday.
The High Res Euro features mostly a dry morning for Monday. - Stronger storms Monday? The High Res Euro actually has also trended toward a little more instability Monday.
Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected to impact portions of the Midsouth today, tonight and tomorrow before a seasonably strong cold front sweeps across the region on Monday.
In addition, the moisture convergence boundary looks like it is moving northeast as the upper level ridging builds northward slightly this morning based on surface observations and satellite imagery trends. However, the higher dewpoints and slightly higher temperatures further west will not change things much.
Isolated activity moves into Lander County Monday afternoon with fairer and warmer weather mid week. Upper cut off low continues to remain situated off the SOCAL coast with high pressure positioned along the coast of the PACNW. Drier air has moved into the forecast region from the north, pushed south by the high pressure and associated northerly mid and upper level winds. Any accumulations in the valleys will be but a few hundredths with the high terrain receiving around 0. Daytime high temperatures across the forecast region will be in the low 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Monday sees the upper cut off low retrograde to the west/northwest as the high pressure meanders inland and weaken.
532 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 A cold front is currently dropping south across the area, associated with a Canadian trough pushing into the northern Great Plains. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today east of the Divide, with highs peaking in the 60s and 70s.
524 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 For the short term period, below average temperatures will be seen by most of the area as a cold front moves through during the day today. The forecast then calls for it to continue to move southeast with most of the Tri-State area in the wake of the cold front by the noon hour. With drier and cooler air advecting in and winds lightening as the pressure gradient weakens, cooler lows are forecasted with a few 40's possible near the Tri-State border. Temperatures will undergo a couple of warming trends before and after a cold front mid-week.
617 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 (Today) Strong upper ridge pattern remains layered from the southern Plains into the western Gulf Coast. Outside of any showers/tstms, the upper ridge axis stretching into parts of the central Gulf Coast states will allow afternoon highs to climb well into the lower/mid 90s.
535 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023 A robust/persistent line of strong to severe thunderstorms tracked across east central Wyoming & the northern Nebraska Panhandle over night in association w/ the cold frontal passage. Isolated to widely scattered rain showers can be expected post-fropa with potential for pockets of light drizzle along the Pine Ridge during the AM hours with the initial moist upslope behind the front. Otherwise, much cooler for today as H7 temperatures continue to plunge to between +4 and +8 C over the CWA through 00z this evening. Very little threat for precipitation after today as upper-level ridging and associated subsidence slowly builds into the region.
- Cooler weather pattern develops early this week and continue into the middle of this week.
High pressure centered to the east of Bermuda and extending west southwest across Florida will support gentle to moderate breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys for the next several days.
300 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Hot weather through mid-week, then cooler by the end of the week. Current temperatures are milder, running around 4-8 degrees warmer in many areas compared to 24 hours ago and are in the mid 60s to lower 70s from the Delta into the Sacramento region, and in the mid 70s to around 80 elsewhere through the Central Valley. The low along the central California coast is forecast to retrograde slightly to the north and west over the next few days allowing elevated moisture/instability to continue to flow into the region.
600 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Another wave of showers and thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front makes its way across central and southeastern Illinois. Today there is a chance for another round of showers and thunderstorms after the noon hour as a second cold front moves through central and southeaster Illinois through the day. Temperatures also turn more seasonably cooler after the frontal passage.
547 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 After patchy morning fog and low clouds, dry weather is expected today under building high pressure.
103 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 After patchy morning fog and low clouds, dry weather is expected today under building high pressure.
1219 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Low pressure along the California coastline will remain a fixture in the overall pattern through the upcoming week.
203 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 High pressure will slowly build into the region today but quickly give way to another low pressure system passing through the region Monday night. High pressure will again build into the region for the middle part of the week. A slow clearing trend this morning as a low pressure system and cold front move into New England. High pressure is expected to build into the area this afternoon and tonight to accelerate the clearing trend this afternoon. With high pressure building over the region tonight winds become light. High pressure though looks to quickly give way to our next system with enough lift and moisture present for increasing clouds and a few showers toward mid and late afternoon.