Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1158 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023 A steady NE flow of dry and cooler air is inbound across Lower Mi late tonight due to high pressure strengthening in northern Ontario. Cooler profile entrenched throughout Sunday, conditions still defined by a modestly gusty northeast wind as high pressure to the north holds beneath existing mid level northwest flow. Moderating thermal profile Monday under full insolation as conditions remain governed by deep layer stability within the influence of surface ridging and mid level northwest flow.
337 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure holds its ground through Monday keeping conditions calm and dry.
159 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 A cold front pushes south of the local area overnight. High pressure builds in from the north on Sunday, but another disturbance aloft approaches late Sunday and moves across the area Sunday night into Monday.
Water vapour loop had leftover upper low circulation over southeast SD, which was causing showers over much of the CWA with bonus drizzle on the eastern slopes of the Black Hills per east/northeast boundary layer flow. Today/tonight, leftover upper low elongates and continues to weaken across NE/IA as upper ridge from western Canada into the plains assumes control.
Leftover boundaries from this morning's showers and a slight weakening of the upper level high pressure will allow scattered showers and storms to form through the afternoon and evening. Afternoon temps will be in the low to mid 80s with humid dew points in the 60s.
615 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023 (Today through Monday) After a uneventful day across the area, look for better coverage during the afternoon across the area as a weak cold front tries to work into the northeast.
These rain showers will gradually taper off through the day as we increasingly become under the influence of a strong ridge to our north. This will keep daytime temperatures cooler out west, with highs generally in the 50s, and warmer out east, with highs generally in the 60s. Monday will be warmer and drier under benign flow with just weak diurnal showers possible (30-50% chance) over the mountains. Arends Above normal heights will remain over the region with anomalously strong ridge over western Canada, though there will be remnant energy and moisture from current westward-moving low trapped underneath the ridge.
Mid-morning update: Latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a weak cold front and associated cloud cover has entered the northern Midlands and PeeDee areas. Temperatures as of 9 am have generally climbed into the lower to mid 70s across the region. Upper ridge over Alabama and Mississippi continues with northwest flow aloft. This ridge will shift westward today but only slightly, keeping northwesterly upper flow across the forecast area. Subsidence will weaken as we move into the late morning, at the same time the aforementioned cold front continues to shift south across the region. Highs in the northern Midlands in the lower to mid 80s thanks to the front, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees further south.
Temperatures are currently in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s, similar to this time yesterday.
538 AM MDT Sun May 14 2023 High over low blocking pattern continues today with a upper level high over western Canada and a low over the Great Basin. Off to the east, ridging will prevail along the Mississippi River. For Colorado, a trough embedded in the weak southerly flow aloft will track across the region today. On Monday, upper level high pressure will stretch from Southern California eastward across the Southern Rockies and into West Texas.
406 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023 (Issued 405 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023) Today through Monday: The w-e upper trough along the US/Canadian border will continue swd today and help steer some of the vorticity maximums currently from ern SD and srn MN into srn WI. A large w-e high pressure area currently over srn Canada will also shift south across srn WI on Mon. Sunshine is expected and temps will warm back into the lower 70s away from Lake MI.
515 AM MDT Sun May 14 2023 Area of light rain showers continues to move north out of southwest Kansas, associated with a weak upper level trough.
Otherwise, temperatures will be a little warmer today compared to yesterday but still a few degrees below normal for this time of the year. Expect highs in the lower to mid 80s.
604 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure holds its ground through Monday keeping conditions calm and dry.
638 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure holds its ground through Monday keeping conditions calm and dry.
Upper-air analysis is also showing the Low over NV as being part of a Blocking High pattern over the West Coast. Ensemble model analysis is showing minimal error in the short- term with the development of the upper Low over East-Central Nevada. This minimal error gives the ensemble solution higher confidence toward the low retrograding in the direction of Yosemite NP this afternoon. Ensemble upper- air analysis showing the upper Low moving into Oregon overnight into early Monday as Central California losses the weak instability that will be seen this Sunday. Blocking pattern then dominates the region for a continuation of warm temperatures for much of the week. Therefore, with Kings and Kern Counties showing the higher PoE percentages, will expect those counties to see higher temperature values today.
615 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023 Clouds continue to decrease across western and central ND as high pressure builds slowly into the region. Main forecast highlight in the short term period will be warmer temperatures and dry conditions. Currently, weak flow aloft with an upper level high over southern Alberta, low over the Intermountain West, and a weakening low over the Upper Midwest.
Warmer than normal temperatures are expected away from the coast Sunday through much of the coming week. Along the coast, cooler temperatures are likely to persist with night through morning low clouds and fog.
615 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023 (Today thru Monday) Our area will remain in a moist, deep layer southerly flow on the western side of a southeast CONUS ridge thru Monday.
649 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure builds in from the north today, but another disturbance aloft moves across the area Monday with increased clouds and a few showers across the Piedmont.
637 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes today offering drier conditions.
1007 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes today offering drier conditions.
(Today through Monday) Synoptic ridging remains in place across the Southeastern CONUS, with the ridge axis just west of the forecast area. The likely cause of the decreasing trend for the second day in a row is possibly due to an abundant amount of moisture trapped underneath the ridge (~ 1. Low-res models are tending to produce convection and underestimating the ridge's influence to suppress it, whereas high-res, convective allowing models are handling the forecast more accurately within the near- term forecast window. By Monday, A piece of a continental high pressure system around the Great Lakes region will break off and set up over the North Carolina coastline.
If you use your imagination there is still the remnants of the upper low hanging around the area providing some forcing. Highs will range from the upper 50s along Hwy 20 to the lower 70s in our far southern counties. May need the furnace on tonight as lows bottom out in the mid 40s north to the lower 50s south. 2) Strong cold front arrives late in the week. Monday: Low confidence in rain chances as an upper level trough sweeps through the area, shoving the frontal boundary even further to our south.
527 AM MDT Sun May 14 2023 A relatively cool & unsettled weather pattern will persist through the weekend as a well-pronounced Rex Block takes shape in response to a retrograding upper-level low undercutting general upper-level ridging over western North America. As such, there is not really a whole lot to speak of during the short term period, with the dirty ridge taking center stage with persistent clouds and daily chances for scattered/numerous showers across a large part of southeast WY and western NE. As such, expect much of the area to struggle to get much warmer than the upper 40s/lower 50s today. Should have better potential for warming on Monday beneath the thermal ridge & having a brief window between vort maxes aloft.
501 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions and seasonable temperatures through the first half of the week. High pressure building in from the north and northwesterly flow aloft will result in dry conditions and seasonable temperatures through Monday.
Clouds continue to decrease across western and central ND as high pressure builds slowly into the region. Main forecast highlight in the short term period will be warmer temperatures and dry conditions. Currently, weak flow aloft with an upper level high over southern Alberta, low over the Intermountain West, and a weakening low over the Upper Midwest.
628 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) An upper ridge continues to build over the central and southeast U. An upper low continues over the western U. The upper ridge is expected to remain in place through Monday. This low is expected to sink south today and Monday and bring a cold front toward Arkanas. High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s and in the lower 80s to lower 90s Monday. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows Monday night will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
622 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 Scattered showers are likely today with cooler conditions.
High pressure ridging north of the state remains in place over the next few days with east to southeast winds, with the afternoon sea breeze shifting coastal winds onshore. High pressure ridging across the peninsula remains in place over the next few days favoring light winds generally around 10 mph or less away from the immediate coastal sea breeze, which will keep fire concerns low despite afternoon minimum RH values near critical thresholds along with elevated ERCs for inland areas between the I-4 corridor and I-75 SWFL corridor.
743 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through Monday, which will bring dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.
304 AM MDT Sun May 14 2023 High over low blocking pattern continues today with a upper level high over western Canada and a low over the Great Basin. Off to the east, ridging will prevail along the Mississippi River. For Colorado, a trough embedded in the weak southerly flow aloft will track across the region today. On Monday, upper level high pressure will stretch from Southern California eastward across the Southern Rockies and into West Texas.
939 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will support dry weather through at least Monday with cooler temperatures than recent days.
We'll lack any forcing mechanism again today with the ridge overhead, but still have a moist and warm airmass in place, thus diurnal convection is expected again this afternoon.
In the short term, an upper level ridge over Alberta will remain in place bringing warmer temperatures and overall drier conditions save for a scattered, diurnally driven shower or thunderstorm.
A mean area of high pressure will continue to provide above normal temperatures over the region through the coming week but a gradual increase in moisture will provide fuel for thunderstorm development the second half of the week. Most of our forecast area will see continued warm and dry conditions today with the exception of south central Nevada where scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur on the southern periphery of an upper low lifting across northern Nevada toward the Pacific Northwest.
Western Montana and north central Idaho remain sandwiched between high pressure to the north, over Canada, and a low pressure system to the south, moving through northern Nevada and southern Idaho.
1149 AM MDT Sun May 14 2023 A relatively cool & unsettled weather pattern will persist through the weekend as a well-pronounced Rex Block takes shape in response to a retrograding upper-level low undercutting general upper-level ridging over western North America. As such, there is not really a whole lot to speak of during the short term period, with the dirty ridge taking center stage with persistent clouds and daily chances for scattered/numerous showers across a large part of southeast WY and western NE. As such, expect much of the area to struggle to get much warmer than the upper 40s/lower 50s today. Should have better potential for warming on Monday beneath the thermal ridge & having a brief window between vort maxes aloft.
Over the past hour a cloud line has developed across the Lower Keys and has begun producing showers from near Key West to just south of Cosgrove Shoal Light. At the same time, the upper level low associated with the mini rex block will slowly pivot up from the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico and lift east northeast. As the upper level low moves out of the region, the inverted trough at the surface will gradually breakdown leaving the Florida Keys in a weak and nebulous pressure gradient.
Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. A weak cold front will remain stalled across the area overnight. On Monday, a weak upper level low will be located across southwest Texas/northern Mexico. In addition, a weak cold front will remain stalled across southern portions of the forecast area.
A bit more sun to start the workweek with highs reaching into the lower 70s for Monday.
202 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 Northeast flow will diminish in intensity through the overnight hours as high pressure drifts overhead. High pressure overhead for Monday will limit mixing through the day, though during the overnight hours a more organized westerly low level component will develop as high pressure sinks southwards.
(This afternoon through Monday night) Current satellite shows clouds continue streaming in from the north behind a cold front that moved into the area yesterday. The cold front isn't obvious looking at surface evaluations, but a look at 850mb charts show a good line of convergence running from the Red River to the Trans Pecos with warmer and more unstable air to the south. Temperatures will be similar to today, perhaps a couple of degrees warmer and still below normal for this time of year.
Mid/upper level high pressure ridge continues to be centered over the Deep South and Gulf of Mexico, while at the surface the Atlantic high pressure ridge is centered northeast of the Florida peninsula.
Taking a broader look at the region, showers are ongoing across Oklahoma and Kansas on the western side of the upper ridge. Model guidance suggests this activity will continue to lift and ultimately round the ridge into central Illinois.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in control of the weather across the region today. Highs will be a little warmer this afternoon as they top out in the lower 90s areawide. Upper ridging will continue to prevail across the area today through tonight. Highs today will climb into the low 90s for most of the area. This will result in hot and humid conditions yet again on Monday with temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s. High pressure will lead to rather subsident conditions and may tend to suppress cloud cover and inhibit convection, however given sufficient moisture (1.
This should set up the favored area for locally heavy rainfall to be generally east of I-35 and this is where we'll have the highest PoPs through late evening. On Monday, a weak cold front will slide southward into North Texas and should serve as a focus for additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
100 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will continue to provide the region with fair dry weather through Monday night.
Others have storms moving south to north over the Gulf Waters tonight trying to fire convection up near the lower RGV and coastal counties.
209 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023 Area of light rain showers continues to move north out of southwest Kansas, associated with a weak upper level trough.
331 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 While high pressure will persist into Monday evening, an upper disturbance will bring clouds and perhaps some very light rain late tonight into Monday.
214 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will continue to provide the region with fair dry weather through Monday night.
Scattered light rain showers are in place over the CWA with cloudy skies over the plains and mostly cloudy skies over the high country. Upper ridging builds into the CWA on Monday along with weak subsidence.
A mean area of high pressure will continue to provide above normal temperatures over the region through the coming week but a gradual increase in moisture will provide fuel for thunderstorm development the second half of the week. The upper low continues to push to the north and across northern Nevada today. A band of mid level clouds is wrapping around the south side of the low and across Esmeralda, Nye and Lincoln Counties. Most of our forecast area will see continued warm and dry conditions today with the exception of south central Nevada where scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur on the southern periphery of an upper low lifting across northern Nevada toward the Pacific Northwest.
Despite prevailing northerlies throughout the day, slightly warmer temperatures are expected Monday as clouds scatter out west to east through mid/late afternoon. Look for highs up into the mid/upper 60s(F) in central Kansas to the lower/mid 70s(F) possible farther south.
1227 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 (Today through Monday) After a uneventful day across the area, look for better coverage during the afternoon across the area as a weak cold front tries to work into the northeast.
(Through Tonight) Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early this afternoon across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, having developed across northwest Arkansas within the instability max and also across the western fringes of the forecast area within the low to mid-level moisture max. (Monday through Sunday) Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday morning, with additional development expected as a cold front pushes into the area during the afternoon and evening.
If nothing else, Monday now appears more cloudy, with cooler temperatures in the central and southern CWA. I'm not sold on the higher rain amounts that the GFS and NAM suggest, but there could be enough hours of light to moderate rain the south to reach over 1/2 inch in some areas, which is still going to be beneficial in most areas.
113 PM PDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure building over the West will continue warm weather inland this week, while sea breezes cool coastal areas. was running 5-10F cooler than yesterday. We still expect it to remain deep enough though, so that fog will be patchy and mostly on the higher terrain, and the coastal areas will have difficulty clearing.
Low clouds will develop once again late tonight area wide and with sufficient lift within the lowest levels some drizzle may be possible as we go into Monday morning. A secondary cold front will drop south through our area on Monday morning and along and ahead of it there may be some additional showers or isolated thunderstorms that develop especially across the Rolling Plains.
1149 AM MDT Sun May 14 2023 Area of light rain showers continues to move north out of southwest Kansas, associated with a weak upper level trough.
124 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023 With the midlevel cutoff low still drifting back to the west across the Great Basin, most of Wyoming remains generally in the middle of a col between two ridges and two troughs.
Convection is not expected to become too widespread however as the weak boundary encounters the suppressive effects of ridging aloft.
For Monday we come under the influence of a strong ridge to our north. So while some pockets of low clouds and fog may linger in the west in the morning, we should see more sunshine and warmer temps for the whole area by afternoon.
A retrograding low pressure system will move through northern Nevada tonight and into western Oregon on Monday. By mid afternoon, a weaker area of low pressure embedded within the larger low pressure system will work into the Magic Valley/South Hills.
232 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through Monday, which will bring dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.
(Through Monday) A stationary boundary to our north will be shoved southward throughout the day tomorrow by high pressure moving across the mid- atlantic states.
This evening and tonight, a surface boundary will become better established from south-central KS through northeast KS with cooler and drier air to the north and high theta-e air south of the boundary.
(Now through Monday) High pressure will continue to reside over the region through Monday, albeit drifting a bit further south towards the Gulf. Given the subsidence over the area storms will continue to struggle to get vertical depth across the area; however, slightly warmer surface temperatures may allow for a little better profile for isolated microbursts, although, these updrafts may not still not be strong enough for this to occur. Strong subsidence will allow for temperatures to climb into the low 90s area-wide during the afternoon on Monday.
The area of showers will continue to move to the west-northwest as a low pressure system moves across northern Nevada. The low will turn more toward the northwest as it enters southern Oregon later this afternoon. Showers will increase this morning near the Nevada border, with showers and thunderstorms spreading north this afternoon and evening as the upper low moves from Nevada into Eastern Oregon.
127 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes today offering drier conditions.
CMiller (Issued 405 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023) Today through Monday: The w-e upper trough along the US/Canadian border will continue swd today and help steer some of the vorticity maximums currently from ern SD and srn MN into srn WI. A large w-e high pressure area currently over srn Canada will also shift south across srn WI on Mon. Sunshine is expected and temps will warm back into the lower 70s away from Lake MI.
303 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 Discussion/Marine/FireWeather -- Freezing or frost conditions north and east overnight -- After coordination with surrounding offices will issue a freeze warning for Lake, Osceola, and Clare Counties where lowest dewpoints will enable temperatures to dip just below freezing for perhaps a few hours. Although air temperatures here will be slightly warmer, we expect radiational cooling to be substantial and this will allow air immediately adjacent to surfaces to drop below freezing in many locations and permit frost given the slightly greater dewpoints.
Satellite imagery this morning showers a few isolated cumulus beginning to bubble up over the high terrain as daytime heating allows for further destabilization through the day. Latest hi-res CAM guidance has showers and thunderstorms developing within the next 1-2 hours over initially over the higher elevations near the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, Chuska Mountains, and the Kaibab Plateau.
A closed upper low now centered over Nevada will progress towards the Pacific Northwest and induce weak surface cyclogenesis off the NorCal coast. A southerly winds regime will evolve for coastal areas today in response to the offshore troughing and will persist through early Monday. Despite the more "active" pattern across the region any moisture associated with the upper low will remain displaced well away from the area so we're not looking for any precipitation outside of some marine layer induced coastal drizzle. However we will see a bit of a cool down given the weakening of the once prominent upper ridge across the area.