Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Departing Trough Results in Cooler, Breezy Conditions with Chances for Sprinkles. But as the trough exits this morning, with strong cold air advecting northwesterly flow increasing winds, smoke expected to quickly dive through Minnesota today. Lingering Trough Impacts Today: As the upper level trough exits over the Great Lakes early this morning on Water Vapor imagery, upstream surface observations depict a large area of anticyclonic flow from the Central Plains into the Rocky Mountain West. But, before we can fully bid adieu to said departing trough, lingering impacts are expected through tonight. Firstly, maximum daytime temperatures are expected to be a few degrees below normal from the low level cold air advection. This, combined with aforementioned cooler temperatures, will likely result in fog formation.
537 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 High pressure today. A cold front tonight. Thereafter, high pressure dominates into the new week, with a warming trend starting this weekend. A high pressure system will then provide dry weather with plenty of sunshine. A cold front will push through the area Thursday night. High pressure builds in the wake of a cold front, resulting in drier weather and clearing skies by mid day Friday. High pressure then remains in control at the surface while an upper ridge expands into the Ohio Valley from the central US this weekend. Temperatures start out cooler than normal on Friday, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and 60s to low 70s for the mountains.
-Enriquez PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Hot and dry conditions will be the main concerns for today and tomorrow as upper level ridging builds back over the region. Heading into the weekend, the ridge moves eastward enough to allow southwest flow and monsoonal moisture to reach into Montana.
In the upper levels the Keys lie at the edge of a trough draped along the Eastern Seaboard and a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Much of this activity is staying to the north and west of the Lower Keys. Strengthening high pressure over the eastern United States and an approaching tropical wave will bring freshening easterly breezes and another round of unsettled weather this weekend.
[Key Messages] 1) Pleasant day ahead with seasonable temps and breezy northwest winds [Discussion] Early this morning, surface analysis depicted a cold front stretching from northwest Wisconsin southwestward into southern Nebraska. Another round of high pressure will follow behind the front for tonight, with winds subsiding by sunset. Clear skies, light winds and the high will help lows drop into the low to mid 50s. For Friday, look for a beautiful day as high pressure settles into the area. Temperatures and humidity levels will be comfortable, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s.
A large ridge of high pressure stretches from ID/MT southward trough NM this morning, while a trough remains situated off the coast of central CA. The high resolution/short range models are starting to show some consistency with additional thunderstorm development overnight tonight.
1000 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 High pressure today. A cold front tonight. Thereafter, high pressure dominates into the new week, with a warming trend starting this weekend. A high pressure system will then provide dry weather with plenty of sunshine. A cold front will push through the area Thursday night. High pressure builds in the wake of a cold front, resulting in drier weather and clearing skies by mid day Friday. High pressure then remains in control at the surface while an upper ridge expands into the Ohio Valley from the central US this weekend. Temperatures start out cooler than normal on Friday, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and 60s to low 70s for the mountains.
close to 100 percent most areas except for portions of north-central Idaho in the lower valleys (only 40 to 50 percent). The probability for gusts greater than 30 mph are greater than 60 percent in wind-prone regions including the valleys of southwest Montana, and in the higher mountain ridges over the remainder of western Montana.
346 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Hot and dry conditions will be the main concerns for today and tomorrow as upper level ridging builds back over the region. Heading into the weekend, the ridge moves eastward enough to allow southwest flow and monsoonal moisture to reach into Montana. The timing of the highest wind speeds will be this morning and late this evening which will coincide with higher RH values.
408 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Key messages: 1) A cold front will move through the area today.
409 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Today and Tonight: A strengthening high pressure system over the Four Corners region will continue to build a strong ridge over the Great Plains. This ridge will begin moving eastward, bringing dry and warm air into the region. High temperatures will be in the low 90s north of I-20 and mid to upper 90s south of I- 20. Unfortunately, the low humidity along with the lack of rain will help keep our fire threat active today.
Plentiful moisture is pooling over Florida ahead of this H5 trough and a frontal boundary, marked by a significant moisture discontinuity extending from Mobile, AL to Columbia, SC.
615 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (Today and tonight) High pressure will continue to strengthen driving temperatures even higher across the region. Abilene is forecast to break the record high temperature (record is 106 degrees) as the high is forecast to be 109 degrees.
653 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (Today through Friday night) A weak cold front currently in northern Kansas is on the way this morning, but don't expect much relief from the heat, especially in the southern Texas Panhandle. High pressure is still large and in charge, but a prominent dip in the jet stream to our north will allow the cold front to make its way through most of the area before stalling out. While the northern Panhandles will see temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday, most of the area will still see highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. Stop me if you've heard this one before, but high pressure refuses to budge from the southern Plains on Friday, with daytime highs near or above the century mark returning to the whole area.
940 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are likely east of the Illinois River today, as a cold front sweeps through central and southeastern Illinois.
635 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Today and Tonight: A strengthening high pressure system over the Four Corners region will continue to build a strong ridge over the Great Plains. This ridge will begin moving eastward, bringing dry and warm air into the region. High temperatures will be in the low 90s north of I-20 and mid to upper 90s south of I- 20. Unfortunately, the low humidity along with the lack of rain will help keep our fire threat active today.
Satellite imagery shows the low remaining off the central California coast with a wide swath of mid/upper level moisture/instability continuing to move up into the region from the Desert Southwest. The low is forecast to drift a little closer to the central California coast today. Little overall change to the pattern is expected over the weekend as the low remains along the central coast. A stronger Delta Breeze is forecast to bring significant cooling to portions of the Central Valley on Friday, otherwise modestly cooler temperatures are forecast through the weekend with only areas of moderate heat risk lingering across portions of the valley and foothills.
539 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023 High amplitude ridge covers much of the Western U. with low pressure well off the central CA coast. Meanwhile upper trof over the upper Midwest and Great lakes has resulted in a wee little frontal boundary which is just moving southward into the Denver area now. This will create some slight cooling over the plains as the thermal ridge shifts slightly westward over western Colorado. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler but still in the lower to mid 90s across lower elevations. The slightly cooler low levels will keep the airmass mostly capped over the plains through much of the day. The center of the upper ridge is progged to be over the Texas Panhandle at 12Z Friday morning.
1036 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 High pressure will cross the region today, then exit across the Maritimes tonight.
1029 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Dry high pressure will maintain milder temperatures and lower humidity to the end of the week. A weak cold front will cross the area tonight and Friday with little fanfare, after which the hot upper ridge over the southern Great Plains will expand across the Southeast. Highs rise slightly warmer but still around normal. A reinforcing cold front will pass tonight, promoting further drying and keeping up wind enough that mtn valley fog may be more limited; ridgetops probably will be rather breezy. It still looks like a dry cold front will slide into the area Friday, with the more aggressive NAMnest and CMC-RDPS depicting some light NW flow showers along the NC-TN border lasting a little bit after daybreak.
625 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level ridge positioned over the Four Corners region slowly drifting eastward. By this afternoon, the upper level ridge is expected to become more centered overhead of the FA with increased thickness values noted over the region. An upper level trough over the upper Midwest will continue eastward and swing a weak cold front through the southeastern TX Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains this evening where it will stall.
Under high pressure, mostly sunny skies are expected through the day as temperatures warm up into the mid 80s. We are starting to see an increase in moisture as dewpoints this morning are in the mid to upper 60s, compared to the low to mid 60s the previous morning.
The main point of focus in the short term period of the forecast will be the passage of a moisture-starved cold front this afternoon into tonight. Ahead of the front, southerly return flow from high pressure translating to our east will allow high temperatures to warm into the middle to upper 80s across southeast MO, and the lower to middle 80s elsewhere across the forecast area. Following the passage of the cold front, low temperatures will dip back to refreshing levels in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
630 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (Today through Friday) With high pressure in control, we are in a fairly quiet pattern for the short term. The cooler temperatures this morning is allowing fog to develop mainly in the water areas and spreading out.
352 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023 1) Cooler today. NW mid level flow still continued over the region, with the mid level ridge axis extending from teh Pac NW to SW CO and then into southern NM. A somewhat cooler low level airmass has moved into the region, and this will allow temps to be about 6-8 degrees cooler on the plains today as compared to yesterday. Temps over the mtns and valleys will be less, with generally 2-3F cooler temps expected. Any precip over the higher terrain should end by mid evening. Of note, the mid level ridge axis will be pushing slowly east and flow aloft should transition to a southwesterly component by 12 UTC Friday.
Drier air pushes into the area from the west this afternoon as an upper trough moves through. High temps a couple degrees warmer than yesterday mainly due to subsidence. Lows tonight a little cooler. By early Friday, a digging wave across the Great Lakes will finally help push the residual east coast trough offshore, allowing strong northwest flow to develop aloft.
(This afternoon through Friday) Stable conditions and mostly sunny skies remain in place across the Southeast due to high pressure over the region. A deep-layer ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will begin to build eastward through tomorrow. Highs today will reach the mid 80s north to lower 90s south, but most areas will reach the lower 90s tomorrow after one more cool morning start in the 60s. Tropospheric moisture content will remain low, so thankfully that should keep heat indices in check as afternoon dewpoints will remain in the low to mid 60s with no rain on the horizon.
222 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 High pressure will bring quiet and seasonably cool weather to central IL tonight and Friday.
Cloud cover will be on the increase late this afternoon, as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Highs in the mid 80's-90 and lows in the low 60's-70, as we begin to warm up through tomorrow. PoPs have been all but removed from the CWA through tomorrow as high pressure to the W/NW continues to build over the coming days (suppressing convection).
By the weekend we are expecting a trough to push through Florida.
The main cold front was located over Chicago stretching into central IL and north central MO. Main cold front will push through between 03-06z. Winds this afternoon and evening ahead of the front will remain gusty between 15-25 mph out of the southwest then shift to more north-northeast overnight allowing for cooler and drier air to advect into the region by tomorrow morning. Lows will range from the mid/upper 50s to near 60 north of the parkways to the low/mid 60s to the south.
148 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 A rogue storm possible this afternoon along a cold front crossing the area.
1227 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Key messages: 1) A cold front will move through the area today.
(Tonight through Friday night) Key Message: - Dangerously Hot with elevated Fire Danger continuing on Friday Broad mid-upper level ridge centered over Oklahoma will maintain very hot and dry conditions over south Texas through the short term period.
The probability of exceeding 100 degrees has the highest probabilities in the Yellowstone River Valley and the Missouri River Valley east of Glasgow (~70% chance).
Expect temperatures to be a tad warmer this afternoon as winds have turned around to the southwest ahead of an approaching cold front. Upper level ridging will allow for dry weather to continue for the coming days. As the ridge intensifies, heat and humidity will return and heat headlines are likely to make their return this weekend.
1118 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023 1) Cooler today. NW mid level flow still continued over the region, with the mid level ridge axis extending from teh Pac NW to SW CO and then into southern NM. A somewhat cooler low level airmass has moved into the region, and this will allow temps to be about 6-8 degrees cooler on the plains today as compared to yesterday. Temps over the mtns and valleys will be less, with generally 2-3F cooler temps expected. Any precip over the higher terrain should end by mid evening. Of note, the mid level ridge axis will be pushing slowly east and flow aloft should transition to a southwesterly component by 12 UTC Friday.
226 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Drier air continues to push into the area from the west this afternoon as an upper trough moves through. High temps a couple degrees warmer than yesterday mainly due to subsidence. Lows tonight a little cooler.
Tonight and Friday: Weakening winds and smoke impacts Almost a touch of fall in the air in wake of mid level trough today with diurnal statacu field, blustery northwest winds, and even a few sprinkles. Smoke concentrations do not seem as high as previously thought perhaps due to better mixing in wake of trough.
In the meantime, rising heights/increasing thickness will support rising temperatures beginning tomorrow as the mid/upper ridge begins to amplify across the Central Plains region. we expect the subtropical ridge to amplify through the period with highs rising over the century mark by Sat and continuing through the remainder of the weekend.
1152 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 High pressure will cross the region today, then exit across the Maritimes tonight.
Higher dewpoints are found over lower southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana, and the higher humidity in these areas will combine with the air temperatures to produce heat index values around 108 and at heat advisory criteria.
1156 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (Today and tonight) High pressure will continue to strengthen driving temperatures even higher across the region. Abilene is forecast to break the record high temperature (record is 106 degrees) as the high is forecast to be 109 degrees.
1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front/wind shift is currently located across far southern Nebraska/northwest Kansas. Some guidance suggest the wind shift will make it farther south, but with a building ridge over the southern Plains will keep it around I-40.
148 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Key Messages: - Very hot temperatures Friday afternoon, especially east of the Black Hills - Dry and hot weather through the end of the week may result in elevated fire weather conditions - Potential for isolated storms Friday evening and over the weekend Current upper air analysis and water vapor imagery shows upper level ridge building over the western US. Ridge shifts east and amplifies as strengthening trough digs into the eastern CONUS.
1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (Issued 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023) Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue today with the passage of the upper trough. Nwly winds will diminish tnt as high pressure over the Great Plains moves to the Upper MS River Valley by 12Z Fri, then slowly across WI on Fri. Gehring (Issued 415 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023) Today and Tonight: A low pressure moving east through Ontario has swung a NE to SW oriented cold front into the region, and showers and thunderstorms have recently fired along it. Winds subside and daytime cumulus clear out Thursday night as a high pressure system around 1017mb builds into the region from the southwest.
(This afternoon through Friday night) The upper ridge centered over NM/CO/TX Panhandle extends northward to almost Canada and southward into the Gulf. This ridge will move over OK Friday as A low spins along the CA coast. Widespread 100s have returned to the region with only the higher elevations escaping it. Friday looking just a bit cooler, may end up needing a Heat Advisory in the afternoon again for the Northeast Permian Basin.
A maturing cumulus field, with some embedded showers, is evident along the higher terrain of Mono, Alpine, and Mineral counties per satellite observations, though so far has struggled to sustain vertical growth.
Northwesterly flow aloft will give way to ridging overnight. No precip expected for us, but some clouds could move in as a trough axis moves into the Central and Eastern Plains.
1238 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (Today through Friday night) A weak cold front currently in northern Kansas is on the way this morning, but don't expect much relief from the heat, especially in the southern Texas Panhandle. High pressure is still large and in charge, but a prominent dip in the jet stream to our north will allow the cold front to make its way through most of the area before stalling out. While the northern Panhandles will see temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday, most of the area will still see highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. Stop me if you've heard this one before, but high pressure refuses to budge from the southern Plains on Friday, with daytime highs near or above the century mark returning to the whole area.
As upper- level ridging moves in behind it, we should expect mostly clear skies as synoptic-scale subsidence dominates.
Temperatures fall to more seasonal readings over the west Friday, while the east remains above normal although cooler than Thursday. Lee troughing over eastern Wyoming enables a gusty west wind to develop for almost all areas as Friday afternoon wears on.
Synoptically this afternoon the western upper ridge extends across the Rockies into the southern Plains with a digging longwave centered over Ontario. The cold front will pass through dry and lead to another mild night tonight and day tomorrow ahead of the approaching warm front and the heat to come as the upper ridge builds into the Central Plains.
The upper high will slowly migrate eastward tonight and will be over the West Texas region for most of tomorrow.
Strong warm air advection, a building upper ridge, and a strong low-level jet will all begin to take shape tonight into Friday. An upper ridge will remain dominant across the central CONUS including our forecast area through the majority of this period.
On Friday, a weak trough will pass by to our north. Isolated thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon, mainly across the southern highlands and across the high county along the Montana border.
Nwly winds will also diminish as high pressure over the Great Plains moves to the Upper MS River Valley by 12Z Fri, then slowly across WI on Fri. Lgt sly winds will then develop Fri nt as high pressure move east.
(Tonight) Overall, a pleasant evening is forecast as high pressure overhead results in mostly clear skies and light winds through the evening into the overnight hours.
Temperatures were a few degrees cooler in the wake of the front. Upper level ridging will persist through 23 August and then gradually weaken thereafter.
East Coast tonight into tomorrow, it will push a reinforcing weak cold front south into our region during the day tomorrow.
1203 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level ridge positioned over the Four Corners region slowly drifting eastward. By this afternoon, the upper level ridge is expected to become more centered overhead of the FA with increased thickness values noted over the region. An upper level trough over the upper Midwest will continue eastward and swing a weak cold front through the southeastern TX Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains this evening where it will stall.
As a result, an associated cold front is sagging southward into the Ohio Valley where satellite and radar trends paint a thin band of increasing clouds and showers, respectively. Troughing starts to lift northeast and ridging begins to build in from the west as we head into Friday night.
High pressure is forecast to build eastward across the area tonight into Friday. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower to mid 50s across the area.
1227 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are possible over eastern IL this afternoon, as a cold front pushes through.
642 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) Key Message: - Dangerously Hot with elevated Fire Danger continuing on Friday Broad mid-upper level ridge centered over Oklahoma will maintain very hot and dry conditions over south Texas through the short term period.
733 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 A rogue storm possible this afternoon along a cold front crossing the area.
559 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) The upper ridge centered over NM/CO/TX Panhandle extends northward to almost Canada and southward into the Gulf. This ridge will move over OK Friday as A low spins along the CA coast. Widespread 100s have returned to the region with only the higher elevations escaping it. Friday looking just a bit cooler, may end up needing a Heat Advisory in the afternoon again for the Northeast Permian Basin.
740 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Drier air continues to push into the area from the west this afternoon as an upper trough moves through. The upper trough axis will lift northeast away from the area overnight with drier air spreading over the area.
A narrow low-level ridge axis reaches west across the Bahamas and South Florida. Lower heights extend from the Great Lakes to northern Florida, with mean layer ridging flanking the long wave trough. And yet, given these boundary interactions Gulf side of the Middle Keys, chances for the Lower Keys may be better than that. Strengthening high pressure over the eastern United States and an approaching tropical wave will bring freshening easterly breezes and another round of unsettled weather this weekend.
1013 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front overnight into early Friday morning. Breezy conditions behind the front Friday afternoon will direct a noticeably cooler and drier airmass into the Commonwealth and lead to a refreshingly comfortable start to the weekend.