Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1222 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 (Today through Thursday) High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue its eastward progression into the Atlantic waters through the short term period. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will rise to the mid 80s along the East Coast, but could reach the lower 90s in areas of interior and southwest Florida.
The only clouds that GOES 16 Day Cloud Phase Distinction were picking up on was across the central Straits of Florida extending northwestward through the Lower Keys. Deep mean layer ridging continues this afternoon with the center of the ridge near the Northwest Bahamas. Deep mean layer ridging will be the name of the game for the foreseeable future across the Florida Keys.
Temperatures will be well above normal, with lows in the lower 60s.
Accompanied with a strong mid- level ridge over the Bahamas, will continue to support a dry airmass to remain in place and extending into the upper levels.
1019 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2023 As the upper trough digs into the western CONUS, light snow is expanding over the northern plains. The cold front has pushed into NE, and temperatures have plummeted into the single digits as very cold air filters in.
136 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 After a brief break in showers later this afternoon, rain and gusty winds can be expected with an overnight cold front. Latest sfc obs show the advancing warm front currently in the vicinity of the Mason-Dixon line early this afternoon. As the low remains to the northwest, the Upper Ohio River Valley will experience a tightening sfc gradient and deep mixing fostered by strong sfc warm advection.
Coastal locations are still expected to remain a few degrees cooler than inland locations, as a sea breeze forms this afternoon. High pressure continuing to prevail across the local waters. High pressure over the west Atlantic slides westward across the area late this week into the weekend, with ridge aloft keeping unseasonably hot and dry conditions in place through the period.
316 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 Deep low pressure advancing to the Great Lakes will bring strong winds and showers tonight. Windy and warm conditions persist on Thursday as the low travels across Michigan.
Freezing rain continues in southern Michigan. Moisture transport is excellent ahead of a trough becoming negatively tilted; currently lifting out of eastern TX. Small dew point depressions from the surface to 500mb indicate a deep moisture column, while an approaching warm front will provide additional forcing at the surface. This area, if will mixed in the afternoon, could see the highest wind gusts High temperatures toward the lake will occur in the morning, before falling in the mid afternoon behind a cold front.
The strong low pressure system still remains over the western United States. The main impact from this low is the entrenched arctic air and gusty east to northeast winds. A few subtle disturbances will be moving through the trough creating light snow showers.
Low pressure is currently tracking across Colorado and will continue moving east. As for the highlights, we will let them go for now but we may end up canceling some of the northern zones or converting them, more on that in the next paragraph.
543 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 Overview: Much colder temperatures arrive tonight behind the cold front.
Freezing rain continues in southern Michigan. As temperatures continue to hover around the freezing mark with the east northeasterly surface winds. Also, issued a Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM tonight for Steuben County in Indiana and Williams and Fulton Counties in Ohio due to the possibility of icing and freezing rain. Moisture transport is excellent ahead of a trough becoming negatively tilted; currently lifting out of eastern TX. Small dew point depressions from the surface to 500mb indicate a deep moisture column, while an approaching warm front will provide additional forcing at the surface. This area, if will mixed in the afternoon, could see the highest wind gusts High temperatures toward the lake will occur in the morning, before falling in the mid afternoon behind a cold front.
On Thursday, another round of heavy snow will affect the Spring Mountains and the higher terrain of Mohave County, with lighter amounts in Lincoln County.
(The rest of tonight) The cold front, currently stretched roughly along I-44, will continue to push through the area, likely clearing the entire CWA by daybreak. Quite a range in overnight lows can be expected, from the low to mid 20s along the Kansas border to the upper 40s in southeast Oklahoma. The main change to the going forecast was to speed up the arrival of the coldest air, bringing hourly temperatures - and by association, the low temperatures - closer to the short term blended numbers. (Thursday through Wednesday) Expect mostly sunny skies during the day Thursday, but temperatures will still be much cooler than today, with highs ranging from the mid 40s in the north to the mid 60s in the south.
The aforementioned cold front will slowly move southeastward across our northwestern counties tonight/early Thursday, before stalling and/or retreating back northwest during the day. The exception will be across our far northwestern counties, which will be positioned just north of the cold front, resulting in north to northeasterly winds and mild conditions.
Current synoptic situation is showing a large upper trough over the western United States at this time. This low pressure system is expected to consolidate and shift south through the short term. Upper low pressure system will rotate near the western shores of California, dropping southward through the day. Scattered snow showers are expected throughout the day with up to an inch possible in some of the heavier snow showers in the valleys, while some of the higher passes and summits will receive several inches. Look for the upper low to continue its southward progression for Thursday night.
At this hour temps are still warm in the low/mid 70s and will reach the 60s overnight.
A quieter day is in store for most of the day Thursday, while the upper level high over the eastern Gulf remains largely in place through the short term forecast period, maintaining the southwesterly flow regime for the Four State Region.
Low level stratus is starting to build back into those areas slowly ahead of an approaching pre- frontal trough axis associated with a weak frontal boundary that currently extends from eastern Texas northward to a fairly strong area of low pressure over lift around 17Z at both terminals and become VFR.
ridge continues building over the state setting up above normal to record heat expected over the coming days with continued rain-free conditions. Accompanied with a strong mid-level ridge over the Bahamas, will continue to support a dry airmass to remain in place and extending into the upper levels.
A surface trof will continue to traverse the area this evening with mainly showers and isolated thunder possible.
A cold front will cross the Ohio Valley in the evening and usher in much colder yet seasonal temperatures to the region.
537 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 A surface trof will continue to traverse the area this evening with mainly showers and isolated thunder possible.
303 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 Overview: Much colder temperatures arrive tonight behind the cold front.
242 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2023 Current surface analysis shows arctic boundary now well south of the region, with low pressure along it over northwest MO and southern CO. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over much of the western US, with low over northern ID/far western MT. Various models still showing a slightly faster exit of the snow as the trough to the west weakens and ejects quicker across the northern Plains. Beyond the storm, mainly dry weather is expected from later Thursday morning through at least most of the weekend as weak ridging passes over the region.
353 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2023 Current surface analysis shows arctic boundary now well south of the region, with low pressure along it over northwest MO and southern CO. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over much of the western US, with low over northern ID/far western MT. Various models still showing a slightly faster exit of the snow as the trough to the west weakens and ejects quicker across the northern Plains. Beyond the storm, mainly dry weather is expected from later Thursday morning through at least most of the weekend as weak ridging passes over the region.
Additionally, temperatures have already reached the lower 90s west of US-281/I-69C. Expect highs to reach the lower 90s across most inland locations today before the sun sets. Abnormally hot and dry weather will persist for Deep South Texas through the short-term period thanks to strong and stagnant subtropical ridging over the Caribbean nosing over South Texas. Highs will reach the low-mid 90s again for most inland locations, with slightly cooler temps along the coast.
530 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 (This evening through Thursday) The cold front has already begun nudging into northwest Oklahoma, bringing north winds and much colder air behind it.
A coastal trough develops overnight tonight and pushes inland from the Gulf of Mexico. This trough will collide with, and become absorbed by the stationary front during the day Thursday.
Water vapor imagery suggests the large ridge complex formerly across the eastern US has taken it on the chin from a very cold winter storm system carving northeast into the Great Lakes. And yet, the Florida Keys remain within the confines of the dry and stable air underneath the ridge.
1235 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 Winds will begin to increase during the day today as a cold front will pass through the area during the afternoon. The warm front has lifted through the area this morning as southerly flow has begun across the area. As the low remains to the northwest, the Upper Ohio River Valley will experience a tightening sfc gradient and deep mixing fostered by strong sfc warm advection. Given low level jet strength, gusts approaching or exceeding Wind Advisory criteria will be possible but mainly in the higher terrain in the east.
140 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 High pressure at the surface is currently ridging across the area from the east and aloft, ridging is centered over the northern Bahamas. The upper high gradually shifts WSW over south FL to over western Cuba through the weekend. At the surface, the high pressure center builds westward to over the state as a cold front stalls to the north, and then remains through the weekend. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s at the coast with upper 80s to lower 90s inland each afternoon.
(Today and tonight) Deep-layer ridging will continue to dominate the weather. There will be some weak forcing for ascent across our northwest zones as a weak short wave rides over the ridge. We will also be dealing with some morning fog today and tomorrow morning, mainly over the cooler shelf waters of the Gulf of Mexico and coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, similar to yesterday.
1238 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 Light freezing rain continues in southern Michigan. As temperatures continue to hover around the freezing mark with the east northeasterly surface winds. Also, issued a Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM tonight for Steuben County in Indiana and Williams and Fulton Counties in Ohio due to the possibility of icing and freezing rain. Moisture transport is excellent ahead of a trough becoming negatively tilted; currently lifting out of eastern TX. Small dew point depressions from the surface to 500mb indicate a deep moisture column, while an approaching warm front will provide additional forcing at the surface. This area, if will mixed in the afternoon, could see the highest wind gusts High temperatures toward the lake will occur in the morning, before falling in the mid afternoon behind a cold front.
Advancing upper trough over the SW CONUS will slowly shift ENE and support a quick transition to a WAA regime locally, ensuing later tonight.
I blended towards NBM25, so there's room for us to potentially get warmer than what I have.
1047 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 (This evening through Thursday) The cold front has already begun nudging into northwest Oklahoma, bringing north winds and much colder air behind it.
(Through Thursday) The upper-level ridge building over the Southeast today will continue to build through tomorrow.
Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is spreading southeast from the Northern High Plains into the high plains of western Kansas.
Partly cloudy skies and breezy southwesterly winds will be in place through much of today as prevailing flow is influenced by high pressure off to the south-southeast.
This convection continues in the vicinity of a weak cold front moving across the CWA. MJ A surface trof will continue to traverse the area this evening with mainly showers and isolated thunder possible.
A stronger cold front over the Midwest will then move SE towards the area late this afternoon. Prior to this next front moving into the area, afternoon highs look to climb into the lower 80s/near 80F, aided by a persistent ridge axis over the eastern Gulf.
1055 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 (The rest of tonight) The cold front, currently stretched roughly along I-44, will continue to push through the area, likely clearing the entire CWA by daybreak. Quite a range in overnight lows can be expected, from the low to mid 20s along the Kansas border to the upper 40s in southeast Oklahoma. The main change to the going forecast was to speed up the arrival of the coldest air, bringing hourly temperatures - and by association, the low temperatures - closer to the short term blended numbers. (Thursday through Wednesday) Expect mostly sunny skies during the day Thursday, but temperatures will still be much cooler than today, with highs ranging from the mid 40s in the north to the mid 60s in the south.
Overview: Much colder temperatures arrive tonight behind the cold front.
(Today and tonight) The cold front will continue to make slow progress southward this morning.
The main cold front is progged to move through western/middle Tennessee between 12-18Z before weakening. Before the frontal passage though, the combination of southerly flow, an anomalously warm lower troposphere and the potential for sun could allow temperatures to rise into the lower 80's across some locations. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 02-23 81(2018) 83(1996) 80(2018) 81(2018) Tonight will be quiet as the front progresses through the area.
Current surface analysis shows arctic boundary now well south of the region, with low pressure along it over northwest MO and southern CO. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over much of the western US, with low over northern ID/far western MT. Various models still showing a slightly faster exit of the snow as the trough to the west weakens and ejects quicker across the northern Plains. Beyond the storm, mainly dry weather is expected from later Thursday morning through at least most of the weekend as weak ridging passes over the region.
Saturation may be hard to come by so will keep any chances for light snow on the low side and mainly confined to locations east of I-29.
650 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 Winds will begin to increase during the day today as a cold front will pass through the area during the afternoon. The warm front has lifted through the area this morning as southerly flow has begun across the area. As the low remains to the northwest, the Upper Ohio River Valley will experience a tightening sfc gradient and some mixing, enhanced by strong sfc warm advection. High pressure will build in from the west Friday underneath quasi-zonal flow aloft. Have mentioned this in the HWO but only in the higher elevations.
623 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front will continue to make slow progress southward this morning.
Otherwise, frequent snow showers are likely across western Wyoming today as a trough to our west keeps southwesterly flow over the area. Weak ridging will build in, keeping most of the area dry.
(Today through Friday Night) Sfc cold front is making its way into western parts of the state early this morning and will eventually traverse the entire area by this evening.
Satellite and regional radar imagery support convective nature of this precip and suggest supporting lift will be sufficient atop the cold frontal airmass to maintain sufficient coverage to include in the forecast for today.
531 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023 (Today through Friday Night) Sfc cold front is making its way into western parts of the state early this morning and will eventually traverse the entire area by this evening.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Much calmer conditions are expected to end the week following the high wind event yesterday. The High Wind Warning continues through this morning. Attention then turns north to a backdoor cold front that will move into the area Friday morning. Winds will become more easterly across the Permian Basin helping to usher in a much cooler airmass.
Dense fog will develop rapidly this morning ahead of a warm front.
Advancing upper trough over the SW CONUS will slowly shift ENE and support a quick transition to a WAA regime locally, ensuing later tonight. Arctic air will really begin to scour our Sat as much of the FA will see high temps at least in the 30s, with some 40s expected along the ENE slopes of the BH's as the lee side trough deepens in response to the approaching upper trough, with even warmer temps Sun.
(Today) Much colder temperatures will prevail today in the wake of a cold front that moved across the area overnight.
Today, another round of heavy snow for the Spring Mountains and the higher terrain of Mohave County, with lighter amounts in Lincoln County.
- Tranquil weather this weekend - A high pressure ridge will build in this weekend and bring fair wx with seasonable temperatures.
637 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions prevail as high pressure remains in control. High pressure at the surface is currently ridging across the area from the east and aloft, ridging is centered over the northern Bahamas. The upper high gradually shifts WSW over south FL to over western Cuba through the weekend. At the surface, the high pressure center builds westward to over the state as a cold front stalls to the north, and then remains through the weekend. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s at the coast with upper 80s to lower 90s inland each afternoon.
The back door cold front that has much colder air associated with it is currently (as of 2 am) moving into the far southeastern Texas Panhandle. After sunset tonight, the front will once again gain momentum and move west through the entire forecast area late this evening bringing freezing temperatures back to the entire forecast area.
629 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 (Today through Friday) Itâs rinse-and-repeat through the short term as South Florida weather remains under the influence of an area of high pressure now located over the western Atlantic Ocean. Aloft, deep-layered ridging will continue to build over the southeast US and the Florida peninsula. In fact, high temperatures today and tomorrow will peak in the mid 80s along the East Coast, but could reach the lower 90s in areas of interior and southwest Florida.
An upper level low continues to usher in widespread snow across the much of the state. Snow will continue to wind down this morning has the low moves off to the east.
408 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023 This morning, an upper-level trough traversing the Central Plains will continue to force a cold front eastward through the CWA, which as of 09z stretches through central IL southwest to south-central MO. Ahead of the cold front temps are predominantly still in the 50s F, but behind the front temps in the 30s and 40s F are already surging into the CWA upon strong low-level CAA.
Expect cooler temperatures on Friday, but the aforementioned front will surge back northward over the weekend and stall across the area.
High pressure will settle in over the area this afternoon, which will then bring an end to the strong winds. The high will remain over the area tonight and Friday. Much colder air will accompany the high, and in conjunction with very cold temperatures, will see bitterly cold wind chills (-20 to -45) develop tonight into Friday morning.
508 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) Much calmer conditions are expected to end the week following the high wind event yesterday. The High Wind Warning continues through this morning. Attention then turns north to a backdoor cold front that will move into the area Friday morning. Winds will become more easterly across the Permian Basin helping to usher in a much cooler airmass.
Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is spreading southeast from the Northern High Plains into the high plains of western Kansas. Relatively dry conditions will persist into the early part of the weekend as there is fairly good agreement with mid-range ensembles showing weak ridging aloft building in across the Southern High Plains northwest into the Colorado Rockies/Western High Plains downstream of a closed upper low dropping southward along the California coastline Friday.
604 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023 This morning, an upper-level trough traversing the Central Plains will continue to force a cold front eastward through the CWA, which as of 09z stretches through central IL southwest to south-central MO. Ahead of the cold front temps are predominantly still in the 50s F, but behind the front temps in the 30s and 40s F are already surging into the CWA upon strong low-level CAA.
By this afternoon, the surface front will be bisecting the region at a 45 degree angle, which will allow for much cooler temperatures north, and warmer temperatures south. Scattered showers expected across mainly northeast Texas, southwest Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma through the weekend as low-level southerly flow overruns a cooler airmass across these areas.
(Through tonight) Deep-layer ridging will continue to dominate the weather. There will be some weak forcing for ascent across our northwest zones as a weak short wave rides over the ridge. We will also be dealing with some morning fog today and tomorrow morning, mainly over the cooler shelf waters of the Gulf of Mexico and coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, similar to yesterday.
This will be just ahead of the cold front and may result in some light rain or drizzle. The cold front is expected to clear the entire area by 4 PM and that should bring an end to the light precipitation. Fast southwesterly flow aloft today will become nearly zonal by Friday when the cold front is expected to stall out over the Gulf Coast states.
The latest surface observations are showing sunny skies and temps already in the low to mid 70's. (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions prevail as high pressure remains in control. High pressure south of Bermuda ridges westward across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
432 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023 An upper level low continues to usher in widespread snow across the much of the state. Snow will continue to wind down this morning has the low moves off to the east.
320 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2023 Light snow was gradually diminishing from the southwest to northeast overnight as an inverted trough continues to lift off to the north and east into the Dakotas. A weak disturbance lifting into the region from the southwest will bring snow showers to the southwest mountains, and light snow showers or flurries to the lower elevations over the west into the evening. Winds start to increase over western areas later in the day as ridging builds to the west.
The light snow will slowly diminish today as upper trough/low moves north but flurries could linger into this evening mainly in the northeast.
515 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023 (Today) Much colder temperatures will prevail today in the wake of a cold front that moved across the area overnight.