Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
150 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s in the coldest sheltered hollows to mid 60s over the ridges at 350z. Temperatures are cooling off over the ridges more slowly than forecast. Thus nudged tonight's lows up several degrees over the ridges to the mid 50s. Ridging was present at all levels over the region late today, resulting in sunshine and light winds. As this was occurring, an upper low centered over Louisiana was spinning to our southwest. As time goes by, the ridging will slip away to the northeast and the upper low will creep northeastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley by early Friday morning.
153 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Last in stretch of high pressure days today.
359 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 The Rex Block is beginning to weaken and the closed low will slide to the northeast towards the Ohio Valley over the next 24 to 36 hours. Lows will be quite mild, in the low to mid 50s, around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. On Friday temperatures will be a tad cooler due to increasing mid and high clouds from the system sliding into the Ohio Valley, thus highs will be in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Byrd A pattern change is still in store for the weekend as a western CONUS trough deepens and slides east.
1219 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 (This evening through Friday) An upper low and surface storm system will track from the northern Gulf of Mexico to the north/northeast over the next few days producing rain and storms across the southeastern states. Meanwhile, a trough will approach from the west, returning WSW flow at all levels of the atmosphere.
Cooler temperatures and gusty southwest winds will continue through Friday. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight/tomorrow morning than the previous days due to the increase in moisture and cloud cover. A trough will push down into the region late tonight and then gradually cross the area on Thursday before pushing to our east on Friday. The winds will be the main story as this trough moves through, with southwest winds gusting between 30 to 40 mph through this evening and then again on Thursday. Expect cloud cover to remain across the region through Thursday with cooler air across the region.
1154 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s in the coldest sheltered hollows to mid 60s over the ridges at 350z. Temperatures are cooling off over the ridges more slowly than forecast. Thus nudged tonight's lows up several degrees over the ridges to the mid 50s. Ridging was present at all levels over the region late today, resulting in sunshine and light winds. As this was occurring, an upper low centered over Louisiana was spinning to our southwest. As time goes by, the ridging will slip away to the northeast and the upper low will creep northeastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley by early Friday morning.
This band will likely have more thunder with it as the upper low draws a touch closer and the "heating" of the day gets tapped into. Continued showers and perhaps a storm will persist through Friday afternoon as the upper low swings through.
204 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure will continue to extend from south of Bermuda westward across the South Atlantic states through Thursday night.
1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023 High clouds over the area Bemidji to Fergus Falls and west with area shifting east as upper ridge moves east. Tweeked temps a bit on Thursday a bit warmer as HRRR is trending warmer, though HRRR sfc temps may be a bit much with mid 70s Wadena and 60 in GF.
119 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Aviation --Continued warm and dry through week's end-- Ridging/subsidence aloft and very warm/dry air mass on the periphery of southeast U. Some increase in high level cloudiness may occur later Thursday into Friday as the upper low near the Gulf Coast lifts northeast.
304 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 The anomalously high amplitude mid level ridge will continue to influence the Great Lakes today. The center of the ridge axis will actually lift northward into Se Mi this afternoon. Srn Mi will remain just north of the low level anticyclone today. Although there is some concern that the mid level subsidence may keep mixing heights a touch lower than yesterday, morning temps are going to be several degrees warmer this morning. Positive PV advection into the western CONUS trough will drive a more progressive long wave pattern this weekend.
1119 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures will continue across the Mid-South today, but rain chances will increase tomorrow into Friday as an upper-level low pressure system moves across the region.
(Today) Upper low down near the Gulf coast will get a "kick" to the northeast today as an upper trough digs over the western CONUS. Some high cloud from the system over eastern areas will gradually decrease from west to east today as the low moves away.
321 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Today's high pressure will give way to a low pressure center moving out of the Gulf of Mexico and across the Carolinas on Friday.
Main short term focus then turns to convective chances/trends late Friday into Friday night ahead of the approaching western conus upper trof.
The dome of high pressure aloft will remain in place through Friday, which means the very warm conditions will continue with highs again around 80.
148 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure will remain located just off the southeast coast today then move farther offshore tonight into the weekend.
(Today) Clouds have begun to increase across the area early this morning as a slow moving low pressure system begins to lift northeast and will soon center over the Mobile area.
332 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure and a dry airmass will lead to mostly sunny skies and continued warm conditions today.
252 AM MDT Thu Apr 13 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: An upper level trough moving through the Northwest US that will bring us today's precipitation will move from the southwest through Montana. From Friday, that upper level trough moves to toward the Great Plains, filling while it does so. In its wake, an upper-level ridge forms over the Western US.
130 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure will continue to extend from south of Bermuda westward across the South Atlantic states through Thursday night.
450 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s in the coldest sheltered hollows to mid 60s over the ridges at 350z. Temperatures are cooling off over the ridges more slowly than forecast. Thus nudged tonight's lows up several degrees over the ridges to the mid 50s. Ridging was present at all levels over the region late today, resulting in sunshine and light winds. As this was occurring, an upper low centered over Louisiana was spinning to our southwest. As time goes by, the ridging will slip away to the northeast and the upper low will creep northeastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley by early Friday morning.
The upper ridge will shift off to the east while a long wave trough moves over the western CONUS. At the surface an elongated area of low pressure with an inverted trough will be in place, pretty much through the forecast period. Temperatures will also drop to near or below normal values behind the trough on Friday.
Low pressure system currently in the Gulf will drift northeastward throughout the day, allowing some moisture to return to the area today.
1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) The upper low meandering over southern LA will continue to influence conditions over the CWA during the period. Owing to subsidence over the CWA west of the upper low, a thermodynamic profile conducive to radiation fog (very dry aloft yet dew point depression approaching zero per the NAM deterministic run) will persist tonight (the SREF visibility probability output adds credence to a fog prediction).
314 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Ridging at the surface and aloft remains in place over the Ohio Valley early this morning. An upper low is nearly stationary over Louisiana. The center of the upper level ridge is in the process of shifting to the North Carolina coast. The upper level ridge will slowly shift eastward today into tonight. Cirrus will gradually become more common during the daytime, spreading in from the south ahead of the upper low. Available moisture increases ahead of the approaching area of low pressure. Key Message: Unsettled weekend Friday and Friday night the upper low that had been over the Gulf coast will travel from northern Mississippi through Kentucky to West Virginia, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms with it.
A strong but fairly dry cold front will move through the state today and tonight bringing gusty winds for the area along with isolated to scattered rain and snow showers. The passage of a cold front this evening and overnight will bring much colder temperatures to the region, which will greatly reduce the rate of snowmelt. The passage of a cold front tonight will result in much cooler temperatures through Thursday which will in turn greatly reduce the rate of snowmelt.
Upper 80s is likely most elsewhere, save the lower plains around Stafford county and Pratt â still low to mid 80s are likley in those locations. Friday will be warm, however with some uncertainty on temperatures as a cold front impinges on the area.
223 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure will continue to extend from south of Bermuda westward across the South Atlantic states through Thursday night.
303 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today, featuring above normal temperatures. Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will drift north and across the area Friday, bringing clouds, showers and even a few storms.
230 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure will remain located just off the southeast coast today then move farther offshore tonight into the weekend.
Otherwise the upper level low at the mouth of the Sabine River will begin to lift north and east over the next 24 hours, meaning that there's even less potential for any stray showers Thursday as this feature pulls away. This will result in a gradual increase in dewpoints and slightly warmer temps tonight and Thursday. Given the low potential and high uncertainty, only 10-20% PoPs have been advertised for now.
-Widespread rain and snow chances from Friday through the weekend with much cooler temperatures.
329 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Key Messages: - Extreme fire danger today - Severe storms possible Friday and Friday night Early this morning a mid level trough was moving eastward across the western states, while an upper level ridge extended across the mid Mississippi Valley. Gusty south to southwest winds are forecast again as low pressure deepens in the Western High Plains. Have trimmed back precipitation chances to north central Kansas for late Friday afternoon near the surface cold front. Forcing for ascent will increase late afternoon, coincident with peak heating and convergence near the cold front into central Kansas allowing for the cap to be broken and convection to develop.
As this low finally mobilizes eastward through the day, stronger SW flow and modest height falls will overspread much of West TX. At the surface, gusty southerly winds by midday unfortunately won't bring any additional moisture to the the table due to surface ridging remaining parked along the TX Gulf Coast.
Cutoff upper level low over the Lower Mississippi Valley will lift northeast and move across the eastern U. For Friday high pressure will ridge west from well out in the Atlantic Ocean across the Florida peninsula with the south to southwest flow persisting.
Warm, dry, and windy conditions will persist into Friday, ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will only climb into the low 70s in northeast Nebraska, and mid to upper 70s ahead of the front in southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa. While the best bulk shear appears to lag the cold front by a bit, a few hundred J/kg of instability and up to 40 kts of bulk shear should support some gusty winds and the potential for the large hail. Despite the threat for severe weather, there will be some decent rainfall potential as the cold front moves through.
118 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure will maintain fair weather through Thursday, featuring above normal temperatures. Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will drift north and across the area Friday, bringing clouds and showers.
218 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure will continue to build across the region through the end of the week.
319 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure across most of the eastern United States will maintain dry and warmer weather through Friday.
1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 (This evening through Thursday) The benign weather pattern will continue across the area under mostly sunny skies and mildly breezy south to southeasterly winds, as weak ridging builds aloft tonight and into Thursday.
1049 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023 (Rest of tonight) An upper low over eastern TX and Western LA continues to slowly drift northward this evening. Dry air in place across the forecast area will slowly begin to erode away as the low moves further north tonight. With the increase in cloud cover, a warmer night is in store with overnight lows only dropping down into the lower 50s.
102 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) A large low pressure system continues to strengthen across the northern Gulf of Mexico, gradually working east or northeast into Thursday night.
- It is worth noting, a cold front will sag into northwest Nebraska today and this will lessen the risk of critical fire weather conditions in some areas. The cooling temperatures aloft and the high clouds could certainly produce slightly cooler temperatures today. A cold front across northwest Nebraska should drop south and sweep through wrn and ncntl Nebraska. Cooler weather is in place Friday with an increase in rain chances.
Discussion: Advancing through the midweek here, and our Gulf low and synoptic ridge are moving in tandem ever so slowly to the north. The strong ridge, with the jet stream far north into Canada, has been providing our lovely warm weather. Thanks to increasing cloud cover, the warmer afternoon highs will be in the northern half of the valley, with Chattanooga's high temperature tempered by the clouds and scattered showers moving in.
-Widespread rainfall combined with warmer temperatures will continue to melt the snow and bring impacts. These showers and isolated storms continue to on an off through the morning and into the afternoon hours before skies turn mostly cloudy ahead of the cold front approaching this evening and overnight. This supports the shower and isolated thunderstorm potential along the cold front approaching the area overnight. A few embedded thunderstorms are thus possible along the cold front as it moves through. As the cold front passes through temperatures will reach the freezing mark and drop below for areas towards the Devils Lake Basin.
Key Messages: - Extreme fire danger Thursday - Severe storms possible Friday & Friday night Detailed Discussion: Another dry and windy day is expected Thursday as the longwave trough over the western CONUS begins to progress eastward and southerly flow continues to strengthen across the Plains. Severe chances for our area will come along the cold front, and will depend a bit on timing of frontal passage. Instability will be highest during the late afternoon/ evening, but deep layer shear will be increasing during the overnight period as the trough approaches.
Cooler temperatures and gusty southwest winds will continue through Friday, strongest winds will be today, especially east of Flagstaff. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms over portions of northern Arizona today and Friday, then dry heading into the weekend, with warmer temperatures and lighter winds. A slow moving trough moving through the Great Basin will continue to lower hghts over Arizona, with a s/wv trough axis passage both today and Friday.
623 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today, featuring above normal temperatures. Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will drift north and across the area Friday, bringing clouds, showers and even a few storms.
1002 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Low clouds from earlier this morning have mostly scattered out with the latest surface analysis showing a warm front lifting northward across northern Florida. Cutoff upper level low over the Lower Mississippi Valley will lift northeast and move across the eastern U. For Friday high pressure will ridge west from well out in the Atlantic Ocean across the Florida peninsula with the south to southwest flow persisting.
957 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Today's high pressure will give way to a low pressure center moving out of the Gulf of Mexico and across the Carolinas on Friday.
626 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Persistent high pressure over the mid-Atlantic maintains WSW flow today around 10-15 knots. The anomalously high amplitude mid level ridge will continue to influence the Great Lakes today. The center of the ridge axis will actually lift northward into Se Mi this afternoon. Srn Mi will remain just north of the low level anticyclone today. Although there is some concern that the mid level subsidence may keep mixing heights a touch lower than yesterday, morning temps are going to be several degrees warmer this morning. Positive PV advection into the western CONUS trough will drive a more progressive long wave pattern this weekend.
715 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure across most of the eastern United States will maintain dry and warmer weather through Friday.
603 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 (Today and tonight) Some clouds from the closed low off to our southeast could continue to spread westward into the CWA today.
423 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 An upper low pressure system along the MS/AL/FL coast will keep rain chances persistent this morning into the afternoon across the ArkLaMiss region. Hourly guidances shows Precipitable Water Values (PWATs) steadily increasing from the southeast this morning in response to the upper low. Highs are expected to be below the mid-April average, ranging from the low 60s to near 70. By tonight, rain chances will fizzle out as the upper low lifts northeast, away from its main moisture source. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 50s.
644 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure and a dry airmass will lead to mostly sunny skies and continued warm conditions today.
(Rest of Today) An area of low pressure along the Alabama Gulf Coast will move northward today into west central Alabama by this afternoon. As southeasterly flow increases ahead of the parent low, moisture will increase across the region -- coinciding with the forcing from the low we expect additional bands of scattered convection to fire late in the day and especially into the evening hours.
Key Messages: - Extreme fire danger today - Severe storms possible Friday and Friday night Early this morning a mid level trough was moving eastward across the western states, while an upper level ridge extended across the mid Mississippi Valley. Gusty south to southwest winds are forecast again as low pressure deepens in the Western High Plains. Have trimmed back precipitation chances to north central Kansas for late Friday afternoon near the surface cold front. Forcing for ascent will increase late afternoon, coincident with peak heating and convergence near the cold front into central Kansas allowing for the cap to be broken and convection to develop.
Much cooler temperatures are in store for today across the area with diminishing snow showers across eastern Nevada.
Meanwhile, with mostly clear skies in the valleys, radiational cooling has brought temperatures down to near or just below freezing.
401 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 A warm front and southerly sfc flow ahead of an area of low pressure will draw continued hotter than normal air into the southern cwa today. The northern side of the system will be much cooler, especially over snow covered areas, with highs still about 10 degrees below mid April averages. Under the clouds and rain on Friday, with upper troughing moving in, temperatures will be much cooler with highs only in the 40s across the forecast area. Departing upper trough will leave us early enough, however for the first 24-hour of the long range we will still have some stratus (up to 10kft) all warmer than the dendritic growth zone (so likely rain and less probable for snow) along with just enough lift for light QPF.
Mid and upper level moisture will increase above 500 mb, from west to east ahead of an approaching trough currently over southwestern Idaho. For tonight, a cold front will push across the region with west/northwesterly winds this evening shifting to the northeast overnight. In the mountains, snow showers will increase in coverage as well after midnight, with the southwesterly ridgetop winds favoring the mountains north of I-70 through 12z. This results in slightly cooler highs and quicker cooling in the afternoon and early evening. We still favor the idea of most areas having rain with a little wet snow at the end, but the faster cooling leaves the lower foothills and possibly areas above 5000 feet with a better chance of getting some snow accumulation.
1007 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure and a dry airmass will lead to mostly sunny skies and continued warm conditions today.
High pressure will push temperatures back above average by late in the weekend. A trough digging through the region will bring stronger winds today along with elevated fire weather concerns as outlined below.
513 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure across most of the eastern United States will maintain dry and warmer weather through Friday.
630 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 An upper low pressure system along the MS/AL/FL coast will keep rain chances persistent this morning into the afternoon across the ArkLaMiss region. Hourly guidances shows Precipitable Water Values (PWATs) steadily increasing from the southeast this morning in response to the upper low. Highs are expected to be below the mid-April average, ranging from the low 60s to near 70. By tonight, rain chances will fizzle out as the upper low lifts northeast, away from its main moisture source. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 50s.
646 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Today's high pressure will give way to a low pressure center moving out of the Gulf of Mexico and across the Carolinas on Friday.
621 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure will remain located just off the southeast coast today then move farther offshore tonight into the weekend.
630 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure will continue to extend from south of Bermuda westward across the South Atlantic states through Thursday night.
Ridging at the surface and aloft remains in place over the Ohio Valley early this morning. An upper low is nearly stationary over Louisiana. The center of the upper level ridge is in the process of shifting to the North Carolina coast. The upper level ridge will slowly shift eastward today into tonight. Cirrus will gradually become more common during the daytime, spreading in from the south ahead of the upper low. Available moisture increases ahead of the approaching area of low pressure. Key Message: Unsettled weekend Friday and Friday night the upper low that had been over the Gulf coast will travel from northern Mississippi through Kentucky to West Virginia, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms with it.
556 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 (Today) Upper low down near the Gulf coast will get a "kick" to the northeast today as an upper trough digs over the western CONUS. Some high cloud from the system over eastern areas will gradually decrease from west to east today as the low moves away.