Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
508 AM MDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Issued at 310 AM MDT Wed Apr12 2023 Warm and breezy conditions continue today and Thursday with southwest flow aloft ahead of an approaching trough. Cold front will be moving into northwest corner of the forecast area by 12z. Low temperatures will range from the lower 40s behind the front to the upper 50s well ahead of it.
(Today and tonight) Little is happening across the region this morning as a low pressure system begins to develop across southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. Slightly breezier conditions will develop for tonight as that low pressure center strengthens. Otherwise, it looks like the slightly warmer temperatures are the only other thing worth a mention. We will be in the lower 80s this afternoon, which will bring our temperatures back to right around normal for this time of year.
629 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 High pressure will maintain fair weather through Thursday, with temperatures trending warmer.
There will be an increase in mid/hi level moisture from west to east during the day, which should limit temperatures a little and result in highs near or slightly cooler than yesterday. Overall, we expect lows to be a few degrees warmer than this morning. Some foothills locations could stay in the 60s overnight, and most high mountain locations will likely stay at or above freezing. Thursday will be somewhat cooler but still well above normal, with dry and windy conditions again expected. The flow aloft will increase from the southwest, ahead of a trough moving out of the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies Thursday.
Begin this forecast period with a North Pacific Trof digging into the western United States.
416 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Downslope winds along the Coteau will diminish this morning with the passage of a dry cold front. Temperatures will be cooler and closer to seasonable today as winds shift to the north behind the front. Once again, snow covered areas will fall below mid-April norms with highs in the lower 50s that will drop into the 40s on Thursday. However, a warm front will push north into central SD late tonight and as far north as the Hwy 12 corridor Thursday morning. The main concern this short term will remain the ongoing river flooding as the warmer temperatures cause snow and ice melt. Rocky mountain trough generating southwest flow aloft with one weak southwest flow wave already passing overhead to start the period.
Breezy easterly winds continue across the Gulf waters, as pressure gradient between high pressure north of Florida and area of low pressure over the northern Gulf remains tight.
657 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 High pressure will linger to our south and then move offshore late Thursday.
DDV (Issued 410 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023) Today and Tonight: Stronger swly winds are expected today as low pressure tracks across srn Manitoba into Ontario. Otherwise, lee side troughing is expected over the high plains for late today through Thu as a large upper trough moves ewd across the wrn USA.
624 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Dry and unseasonably warm with stronger south winds today and Thursday with generally clear skies under ridging aloft. Attention then turns to the western conus upper trof which will move thru the interior West on Thursday.
410 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023 (Issued 410 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023) Today and Tonight: Stronger swly winds are expected today as low pressure tracks across srn Manitoba into Ontario. Otherwise, lee side troughing is expected over the high plains for late today through Thu as a large upper trough moves ewd across the wrn USA.
213 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 High pressure provides dry weather and a warming trend through Thursday.
A broad trough across the region is causing cool, showery weather today. West of the Continental Divide, the uncertainty with the development of the low has a larger impact on the forecast. However, if the low system spins up faster, stronger, or more northwesterly then those areas may need upgraded to a warning. This weekend another ridge builds over the region causing mild weather and above average temperatures.
Rain and snow showers remain isolated to scattered across the west this afternoon as the first piece of the next trough pushes in. This first piece of the trough will push through by Thursday night, and though some isolated light showers will persist across the terrain, most of the activity will diminish. Will see gusts 30 to 40 mph across much of the CWA as the gradient tightens and the trough axis pushes closer. The second piece of the trough, on the back side of the trough axis, will bring another round of showers to the region. This trough will also bring the return of below normal temperatures.
327 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023 The upper ridge will shift off to the east while a long wave trough moves over the western CONUS. At the surface an elongated area of low pressure with an inverted trough will be in place, pretty much through the forecast period.
/29 (Now through Thursday) An upper low centered over southwest Louisiana (and part of a Rex Block pattern) drifts slowly to near the border of central Mississippi/central Alabama through Thursday. A major uncertainty for the rest of the forecast period is how quickly a dry slot currently wrapping around the upper low impacts coverage of precipitation.
100 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Dry and unseasonably warm with stronger south winds today and Thursday with generally clear skies under ridging aloft. Attention then turns to the western conus upper trof which will move thru the interior West on Thursday.
1130 AM MDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Upper ridge is shifting eastward, and a trough is digging into the Pac NW, resulting in southwest flow over the northern plains. Highs could range from the lower 60s across NW SD to the mid 80s across south central SD. Upper trough will approach our region Thursday, and chances for precip will increase late Thurs. Rain showers will spread over the CWA, changing to snow overnight across the cooler areas of northeastern WY, northwestern SD, and the Black Hills.
Kept forecast high temperatures on the high end of model guidance given trends so far this week.
257 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 High pressure will maintain fair weather through Thursday, featuring above normal temperatures.
A warm front pushed through the Straits of Florida and Hawk Channel before sunrise, then nudged northward through the island chain shortly thereafter. This included a juiced moisture profile, ample turning of the low- level winds with (helicity), and decent instability. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy across the island chain, with temperatures generally in the lower to mid 80s. The forecast becomes relatively routine for the next several days, as high pressure continues to drift into the south-central Atlantic through the end of the week.
(Through Thursday) An area of low pressure over the north central Gulf will lift northward into the central Gulf coast states Tonight. The warm front associated with this low will slowly lift northeast across forecast area overnight through Thursday. Given the strength of the warm front and the upper disturbances above it, a few tornadic storms possible, especially if area gets enough of a break in rainfall to enhance surface based instability.
(This evening through Thursday) The benign weather pattern will continue across the area under mostly sunny skies and mildly breezy south to southeasterly winds, as weak ridging builds aloft tonight and into Thursday.
203 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Center of dry high pressure will remain overhead through tonight, sliding offshore during Thu. Low pressure will slowly lift northeast along the SC and NC coasts late Thu night thru early Sat resulting with increased rain chances. Weak high pressure will follow late Sat into Sun. A cold frontal passage accompanied with convection will occur Sun night into Mon. SE-NW oriented ridge across the area this afternoon, both surface and aloft, will migrate eastward through the period in response to the cutoff low over the TX/LA coast beginning to lift north. Thursday will remain sunny, with temps again pushing 80 degrees (slightly cooler at the beaches with a sea breeze developing), with some high cloudiness beginning to spread in from the south late in the day.
Rain continues as a warm front, associated with low situated in the Gulf, drifts into north Florida tonight into tomorrow.
101 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 High pressure provides dry weather and a warming trend through Thursday.
332 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 High pressure will prevail through tonight. Weak low pressure will track across the Southeast U.
1240 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023 (Today and tonight) Little is happening across the region this morning as a low pressure system begins to develop across southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. Otherwise, it looks like the slightly warmer temperatures are the only other thing worth a mention. We will be in the lower 80s this afternoon, which will bring our temperatures back to right around normal for this time of year.
Surface analysis showed broad high pressure centered over the southeast U. , with a cold front extending from northern Minnesota into eastern Wyoming.
1258 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 High pressure provides dry weather and a warming trend through Thursday.
(The rest of this afternoon ) Broad high pressure is in place across the central CONUS with an embedded low pressure area moving inland across LA/MS. This low pressure system will not impact the area significantly. The upper level high pressure system will gradually break down as the next Pacific trough moves inland, with stronger southwesterly flow developing. In spite of the cooling upper level temperatures, the lower atmosphere will continue to warm due to warm air advection.
An increase in high level clouds will creep into East TN from the south on Thursday as a closed low near the Gulf Coast slowly moves towards TN from the southwest. Rain chances increase late Thurs afternoon in our southern counties as this low approaches. Given the southwest-to-northeast movement of this system, forecast highs are running a few degrees warmer at TYS and TRI than at CHA due to cloud cover limiting daytime heating-- but will still be in the 70s in the southern valley, and low 80s in the northern valley Thurs afternoon.
1150 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) We will start the day with a large closed low along the SE TX coast and the next upper trough along the West Coast. This trough will move inland today then into ID/NV tonight as the Gulf low spins in place. On Thursday the trough axis slowly moves east into UT/AZ as the Gulf low begins to drift east.
400 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 High pressure will continue to build across the region through the end of the week.
Showers this morning will be isolated, then will increase in coverage this afternoon due to daytime heating and the upper low moving overhead. The freezing level on this mornings sounding was 3400 feet which will put the snow level between 2000 and 2500 feet this morning, but there will be a diurnal rise during the day and end up between 3000 and 3500 feet later this afternoon. A thermal trough will develop over northern California this evening and tonight.
1228 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023 (Today and tonight) As an upper cyclone deepens over the Nrn Gulf today, an attendant sfc cyclone will develop with enhanced moisture transport on its Ern/Nrn periphery.
Today through Thursday: Breezy and gusty winds prevail once again this afternoon in response to a mid/upper level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, the mid/upper level trough will begin to dig into the Great Basin allowing for winds to turn more northerly, especially in the North Bay Mountains where gusty winds are expected through early Thursday morning. Afternoon temperatures will warm slightly on Thursday as the trough shifts further inland and winds begin to gradually diminish (yet still remain breezy).
(Tonight through Thursday night) A large low pressure system continues to strengthen across the northern Gulf of Mexico, gradually working east or northeast into Thursday night.
(Tonight) A closed upper level low near the Sabine Pass is forecast to shift slowly east through tonight into southern Louisiana. Lows will range from the upper 40s in our eastern valleys to the lower 50s elsewhere.
124 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 High pressure will linger to our south and then move offshore late Thursday.
Gusty winds will help to keep overnight lows slightly above average in the low 50s. An upper trough centered over the Mountain West will track eastward through the remainder of the week. This will finally push out the stalled upper low ahead of it in the northern Gulf and allow for more unsettled weather to potentially develop in our area on Thursday.
403 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Ridging was present at all levels over the region late today, resulting in sunshine and light winds. As this was occurring, an upper low centered over Louisiana was spinning to our southwest.
Meanwhile, a midlevel ridge will continue to build over region tonight into Thursday, keeping prevailing SKC in the forecast. A 579 dm 500mb ridge axis now extends from the central plans across the Ohio Valley. The Great Lakes region will remain along the northern periphery of this ridge today and within a respectable low level west-southwesterly gradient. In fact, wind gusts may reach up to 40 MPH across the Saginaw Valley and thumb region where the low level wind fields will be a touch stronger.
An upper level trough moving into northwest Oregon will keep moisture mainly to the south of the area today, although a stray light shower is possible.
331 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Discussion/Marine/FireWeather/Hydro/Climate --Continued warm and dry through week's end-- Ridging/subsidence aloft and very warm/dry air mass on the periphery of southeast U.
Some light showers will be possible during the day tomorrow as upper/mid residual moisture pushes over the area from the exit region of upper troughing over the Intermountain West, but is expected to be very light. 75 inch per hour, and some small, non-impactful hail can't be ruled out given low freezing heights and marginal but present effective shear.
Lows tonight may still remain at or above freezing, further contributing to the melting of area snowfall. The upper level warm front and stalled surface front look to more favor the north and west for widespread stratiform rain and snow through the day Thursday. NBM keeps placing freezing rain and now sleet in the grids as a result. Look for lows slightly cooler Thursday night and generally at or below freezing.
108 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Dry weather and warmer temperatures are forecast today through Thursday as high pressure moves slowly east.
402 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Ridging was present at all levels over the region late today, resulting in sunshine and light winds. As this was occurring, an upper low centered over Louisiana was spinning to our southwest.
1132 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 High pressure will support dry weather across the Lower Lakes with above normal temperatures through the end of the week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase over the weekend as low pressure nears the region. A Rex block centered over the Lower Mississippi valley this afternoon will break down during the next couple days. The resulting negatively tilted ridge will cross the Lower Great Lakes and supply us with continued fair dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Upper low centered near Portland/OR this morning will track directly over our area tonight, then weaken and turn northeast into Montana Thursday. The low will bring light snow or snow showers to our Idaho zones tonight and early Thursday morning. A weaker trough behind the low will bring a few more snow showers to our northern mountains Thursday night.
308 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Current surface analysis shows expansive area of high pressure centered over the TN Valley.
Highs today are in the low-to-mid-80s in the drought- stricken west and the upper 70s where we have slightly wetter soils and lower sensible heat fluxes. The ridging will also amplify our ever-present fire weather in the arid High Plains region.
145 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 High pressure will linger to our south and then move offshore late Thursday.
641 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) The upper low meandering over southern LA will continue to influence conditions over the CWA during the period. Owing to subsidence over the CWA west of the upper low, a thermodynamic profile conducive to radiation fog (very dry aloft yet dew point depression approaching zero per the NAM deterministic run) will persist tonight (the SREF visibility probability output adds credence to a fog prediction).
819 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 High pressure will prevail through tonight. Weak low pressure will track across the Southeast U.
Otherwise the upper level low at the mouth of the Sabine River will begin to lift north and east over the next 24 hours, meaning that there's even less potential for any stray showers Thursday as this feature pulls away. This will result in a gradual increase in dewpoints and slightly warmer temps tonight and Thursday.
302 PM MDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Starting to see some light echos showing up on radar early this afternoon, as the flow becomes increasingly southwesterly ahead of the approaching trough. More precipitation will move in from the west this evening and overnight as the main trough and the associated energy moves into the eastern half of Montana. This will spread snow to the mountains and some rain and rain/snow mix to the rest of the lower elevations. The lower elevations continue to see amounts dropping with Billings now likely to see no snow.
Southeast Arizona is under a transitional period, as the upper ridge that brought the last few days of unusually warm weather is shifting eastward. In its place, a positively tilted upper trough is dropping into the Pacific Northwest, and southwest flow is increasing in between the two systems.
Breezy winds will continue on Wednesday as the low axis exits the region, with wind gusts up to 35-40 mph in the afternoon along the I-84 corridor near Mountain Home, Twin Falls, and Jerome. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt, lowering everywhere except the Lower Snake River Plain by 13/06Z.
The upper ridge will shift off to the east while a long wave trough moves over the western CONUS. At the surface an elongated area of low pressure with an inverted trough will be in place, pretty much through the forecast period.
Current surface analysis shows expansive area of high pressure centered over the TN Valley.
728 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 High pressure will maintain fair weather through Thursday, featuring above normal temperatures.
644 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) A large low pressure system continues to strengthen across the northern Gulf of Mexico, gradually working east or northeast into Thursday night.
(Tonight through Thursday night) The upper low meandering over southern LA will continue to influence conditions over the CWA during the period. Owing to subsidence over the CWA west of the upper low, a thermodynamic profile conducive to radiation fog (very dry aloft yet dew point depression approaching zero per the NAM deterministic run) will persist tonight (the SREF visibility probability output adds credence to a fog prediction).
932 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 High pressure will continue to build across the region through the end of the week.
859 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 High pressure will continue to extend from south of Bermuda westward across the South Atlantic states through Thursday night.
(Rest of tonight) An upper low over eastern TX and Western LA continues to slowly drift northward this evening. Dry air in place across the forecast area will slowly begin to erode away as the low moves further north tonight. With the increase in cloud cover, a warmer night is in store with overnight lows only dropping down into the lower 50s.
Ridging was present at all levels over the region late today, resulting in sunshine and light winds. As this was occurring, an upper low centered over Louisiana was spinning to our southwest.
829 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 High pressure provides dry weather and a warming trend through Thursday.
612 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023 (Tonight) A closed upper level low near the Sabine Pass is forecast to shift slowly east through tonight into southern Louisiana. Lows will range from the upper 40s in our eastern valleys to the lower 50s elsewhere.
Expect temperatures to be a bit warmer tonight than they were last night with slightly cooler daytime temperatures tomorrow.
Otherwise, VFR as upper ridging holds sway over the region. Southeast Michigan firmly entrenched within an extended stretch of anomalous, near record mid April warmth, as a firm low level west- southwest gradient capitalizes on the elevated thickness field defined by high amplitude ridging. Little variation in positioning of the governing upper ridge axis through the remainder of the work week, lending to a similar thermal structure under a high degree of insolation potential and pervasive southwest to southerly flow.
241 PM PDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Cooler temperatures and increased winds will prevail through Thursday.
728 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Aviation --Continued warm and dry through week's end-- Ridging/subsidence aloft and very warm/dry air mass on the periphery of southeast U.
As a result, rain chances were bumped down for tonight and Thursday, with the highest rain chances Thursday now focused over the interior and along the Nature Coast counties. Some IFR ceilings will be possible late tonight through early Thursday morning, with the highest chances over southwest Florida (around KRSW, KFMY, KPGD). A few showers or storms will be possible throughout the day Thursday, with the highest chances over the interior (like around KLAL), but rain chances are too low closer to the coast to mention in the TAFs at this time. Winds and seas are gradually subsiding as the area of low pressure in the Gulf drifts north, with the Small Craft Advisory being allowed to expire south of Englewood.
628 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023 (This evening through Thursday) The benign weather pattern will continue across the area under mostly sunny skies and mildly breezy south to southeasterly winds, as weak ridging builds aloft tonight and into Thursday.
The upper low overhead has not really been producing convection to the extent that was previously expected, and this trend should continue overnight.
751 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 (Through Thursday) An area of low pressure over the north central Gulf will lift northward into the central Gulf coast states Tonight. The warm front associated with this low will slowly lift northeast across forecast area overnight through Thursday. Given the strength of the warm front and the upper disturbances above it, a few tornadic storms possible, especially if area gets enough of a break in rainfall to enhance surface based instability.
(Today and tonight) Some clouds from the closed low off to our southeast could continue to spread westward into the CWA today.
Tweeked temps a bit on Thursday a bit warmer as HRRR is trending warmer, though HRRR sfc temps may be a bit much with mid 70s Wadena and 60 in GF.
Otherwise, ridging will maintain VFR conditions. Southeast Michigan firmly entrenched within an extended stretch of anomalous, near record mid April warmth, as a firm low level west- southwest gradient capitalizes on the elevated thickness field defined by high amplitude ridging. Little variation in positioning of the governing upper ridge axis through the remainder of the work week, lending to a similar thermal structure under a high degree of insolation potential and pervasive southwest to southerly flow.
252 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 High pressure will continue to extend from south of Bermuda westward across the South Atlantic states through Thursday night.