Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile, upper level disturbance pushing offshore into the Atlantic and associated frontal boundary stretching south across the Southeast continue to interact with high pressure over southern portions of the state. As a result, west to southwesterly flow remains in place keeping the highest chances for showers and storms over interior locations through the period. Area of high pressure south of the area should keep west to southwesterly flow across the Gulf waters before shifting from the west to northwest during the weekend.
655 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (Today through Friday) Quiet start to the morning with a weak upper low moving over the mid state. Combined with diurnal help, this low will be able to get some showers and storms to develop late morning through the afternoon mainly in the eastern half of the mid state.
while weak high pressure sits over southern Florida. The latest model guidance has the coastal region staying rain-free today with the highest rain chances over the interior and east coast of Florida.
631 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023 High pressure will provide for mostly sunny skies to much of the area today. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will develop later Friday afternoon and into Friday night as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a weak inverted trough will nose up into the lower Scioto Valley through this afternoon. With some weak low level convergence associated with the inverted trough, some cu will likely develop later this afternoon. The inverted trough will shift slowly northwest through tonight along with a continued increase in lower level moisture. A better chance for showers and embedded thunderstorms will then spread into our northwest later Friday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
(Rest of Today) An upper level low/trough axis from the lower OH valley into the lower MS valley was indicated on water vapor imagery.
Water vapor imagery highlights a short wave pivoting east through the Gulf of Mexico, a cutoff low near the Baja, and mean-layer ridging over South America and the Caribbean.
Current temperatures are running a little cooler in areas influenced by the Delta Breeze, and a bit milder further inland compared to 24 hours ago. Onshore flow will bring a little cooling to the southern half of the Sacramento Valley and the northern San Joaquin Valley the next few days while high pressure will continue warm weather further inland.
624 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) A closed upper low will continue to meander around Baja today as a ridge extends up from Mexico across TX and NM. The ridge is expected to strengthen Friday keeping the low at bay. Friday will be a little warmer for most locations but a cold front will blow into the area during the afternoon so nrn locations behind the front will not reach the same highs as today.
408 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Smoke is the main concern today as the upper trough drags air down from Canadian wildfires with northwest flow at the sfc. Smoke and the lower heights in the upper torugh will also result in below normal highs today, topping out in the mid 60s to lower 70s. With the high moving overhead tonight, temps will dip down into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
In the short term, smoke will remain an issue into this afternoon, and showers will remain a possibility as well as the low pressure system passes directly over our area. As the center of the low pressure system traverses over our area, some wraparound precipitation will occur as well. With the proximity of the low pressure center to our area, we could see some higher lapse rates where we can clear out. Tonight and tomorrow, the rain moves out and ridging builds in to our west.
1218 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Upper air sounding from this morning and latest water vapor imagery shows a rather dry air mass has moved into the forecast area with some upper level ridging.
Another warm day is forecast for today with temperatures generally 3-5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms between Thu/21z thru Fri/02z over the higher terrain of central ID and E Oregon.
Our rooftop camera detects weakly buoyant tufts of cumulus along the lee of the Lower Keys, but no showers so far.
Issued by National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1238 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Drier and Warmer An upper-level ridge currently located over northern Mexico will move eastward today across South Texas ushering in significantly drier air, with PWATs as low as 1. The ridge is expected to build Thursday night into Friday, resulting in plenty of sunshine. With the ridge continuing to build tomorrow, temperatures out west are expected to peak in the upper 90s.
233 PM MDT Thu May 18 2023 Latest analysis shows the upper low tracking southeastward out of Manitoba into northwestern Minnesota. At the surface, cool high pressure is sliding southward out of Saskatchewan across eastern MT/western ND. The low level cold advection and a tightening of the surface pressure gradient have produced breezy/windy conditions this afternoon. Although the areas with thicker smoke may see temperatures remain a little warmer, some areas, especially over parts of northwestern South Dakota (where the smoke is expected to decrease the most tonight) may be cool enough for patchy frost late tonight/early Friday. Friday will be dry with slightly cooler than average temperatures.
(Rest of today through Friday) Models remain in fair agreement in having a mid-level trough pushing further south across the SE CONUS and further into northern Florida. For Friday, the aforementioned trough pushes further eastward as it digs deeper along the southeastward coast into the Atlantic.
1233 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (Today through Friday Night ) Quiet conds noted acrs the FA early this mrng thanks primarily to a weak high pressure system. Dry weather is expected once again today and much of tngt as the Mid- South resides under a weak upper ridge. Light E/NE sfc winds wl keep drier air in place as highs top out in the lower and mid 80s. The assocd trof axis and sfc CDFNT wl eventually move into AR fm the NW Fri night.
937 AM PDT Thu May 18 2023 A weak upper level low pressure system to the south will maintain a flow of mid level moisture from the east into the area through the weekend with a slight chance of mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the mountains. The marine layer will keep coastal areas cooler with inland high temperatures above average.
An upper low was over southern Manitoba, tracking east-southeast. A cold front was located from southwest Kansas to north-central Iowa with little convergence along it.
Latest WV imagery shows a mid/upper level low near the Baja spur with our CWA located in a favorable diffluent region on the northeast flank of the low. Friday will be the first day of transition towards a drier pattern as the mid/upper low will start to weaken as it remains just to our southwest.
Convective initiation will favor two areas this afternoon on the higher terrain, the Raton Mesa and the Palmer Divide. Locally very heavy rainfall is expected as the MCS develops in the high precipitable water environment. Cold front enhanced by convective outflow will clear the KS/OK border by 7 am Friday, with noticeably cooler temperatures and elevated northeast winds expected daylight Friday.
Shower and storm chances return Friday as a strong cold front sags southeast across the Mid-South. Behind the front, expect afternoon temperatures to be in the low to mid 70s through the weekend. However, temperatures will likely be in the low to mid 80s with rain chances by the middle of the week.
- Smoke from the Canadian Wildfires anticipated to mix down to the surface with the passing cold front. Satellite water vapor imagery shows the prominent upper level low pressure system rotating over Lake Winnipeg. 00z guidance for SBCAPE shows on the high end of the spectrum with the ensemble maximum near 1300 J/kg and only 100 J/kg with the ensemble minimum. This would be in the lowest 10th percentile according to the NAEFS guidance.
Still seems plausible that our northeast zones will catch a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as a sfc cold front shifts southeast through the area, but no severe weather is anticipated. Smoke is the main concern today as the upper trough drags air down from Canadian wildfires with northwest flow at the sfc. Smoke and the lower heights in the upper trough will also result in below normal highs today, topping out in the mid 60s to lower 70s. With the high moving overhead tonight, temps will dip down into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
139 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023 Mainly dry weather will continue through Friday as high pressure slides east of the area.
1117 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 (Rest of Today) An upper level low/trough axis from the lower OH valley into the lower MS valley was indicated on water vapor imagery.
1024 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Upper air sounding from this morning and latest water vapor imagery shows a rather dry air mass has moved into the forecast area with some upper level ridging.
/26 (Now through Friday) Currently, temperatures across the local area are in the upper 70s to lower 80s north of I-10 and in the lower to mid 80s south. Even with increasing shower and storm coverage, anticipating highs to top out in the lower to mid 80s, with some spots reaching the upper 80s by mid-afternoon. Highs Friday afternoon are forecast to be similar to today, but perhaps a touch warmer due to lower coverage of showers and storms.
243 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Smoke aloft will remain widespread through Friday, but will be less visible as clouds increase ahead of a cold front.
1019 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Temperatures are in the low 70s across Middle Tennessee this morning and it feels quite comfortable out thanks to the large dew point depression. An upper level low is currently over west Tennessee and will bring shower chances across the area over the next few hours. (Today through Friday) Quiet start to the morning with a weak upper low moving over the mid state. Combined with diurnal help, this low will be able to get some showers and storms to develop late morning through the afternoon mainly in the eastern half of the mid state.
1230 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Temperatures are in the low 70s across Middle Tennessee this morning and it feels quite comfortable out thanks to the large dew point depression. An upper level low is currently over west Tennessee and will bring shower chances across the area over the next few hours. (Today through Friday) Quiet start to the morning with a weak upper low moving over the mid state. Combined with diurnal help, this low will be able to get some showers and storms to develop late morning through the afternoon mainly in the eastern half of the mid state.
The unseasonably warm conditions are causing increased snowmelt over the higher Sierra resulting in flooding concerns along area rivers. A strong ridge of high pressure aloft remains over the west coast today. The ridge shifts inland this weekend with temperatures nudging down a bit but remaining well above normal.
140 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023 After our dry period into tonight, a line of showers is ahead Friday and Friday night as a cold front approaches.
202 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 A mid/upper trough over Manitoba was digging southeast into the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley area this afternoon. A cold front extended from this system south and southwestward from the arrowhead of Minnesota to the Central High Plains.
1028 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2023 A large area of high pressure centered over the mid and upper Ohio River Valley will drift east east over the Commonwealth tonight into Wednesday.
The leading edge of a moisture plume nestled in the low level easterly flow is quickly advancing across the region. High pressure docked over the Eastern Seaboard will interact with a series of low pressure systems in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico overnight through Wednesday.
Otherwise, split flow remains in place aloft with a southern stream trough pushing eastward from the Arklatex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Isentropic lift will increase further over the lingering CAD wedge into the day on Wednesday as the upper trough moves overhead with the result being more coverage of light rain.
1154 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2023 High pressure over the Ohio valley will slowly exit toward the northeast overnight. Energetic upper level flow tracking across Canada, with the first strong upper level low/PV anomaly currently tracking northeast toward Hudson Bay. This system will drag a weakening cold front into the Central Great Lakes on Wednesday. 925 MB temps progged to reach 10 C by 18z Wednesday suggests highs in the lower 60s, but mixing depths likely come up just short of that level. NAM soundings look too shallow and will skew the forecast toward warmer Euro MOS, which also may be a touch underdone as well (see yesterday's highs vs guidance).
1217 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 (Rest of tonight) Dense high cloud cover continues moving across the area as a low pressure system slowly shifts east along the Gulf Coast. Upper troughing over the Midwest will become better amplified as it shifts into the Southeast, and a more tropical airmass will be ushered into the area thanks to increasing southeasterly flow.
525 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 (Today through Thursday) A 500 mb ridge of high pressure will persist over Mexico during the period. This will place the entire BRO CWFA in a northwest-to- southeast mid-level flow, resulting in dry weather for Deep South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and the lower Texas coastal waters.
The wave will push a cold front across the state, with rain changing over the snow overnight. Seasonably mild conditions will return for the weekend with dry weather conditions continuing as an upper ridge rebounds over the west.
353 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 - Warmer than average temperatures are expected through Thursday.
A cold front will move through the area in the afternoon and evening.
Portions of southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and the river valleys have the highest chance of exceeding 65 degrees. We opted to lean on the higher side of model guidance once again with our temperature forecast coming in around the 75th percentile. Our warm stretch of weather comes to an end after a cold frontal passage on Thursday night.
Otherwise, with upper ridging centered across the High Plains, dry surface weather and above normal temperatures (low to mid-70s) can be expected. Minimum overnight temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid-40s.
604 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Today through tonight: A low closing off over the northern Gulf of Mexico almost appears to be detached from the westerlies as it meanders through the semi-permanent longwave ridge axis, and all guidance agree it will not be in a hurry to leave the area as a result. Weakening deformation zone ascent north of the low center is keeping some light rain around east of the MS River, but it's possible we'll see an uptick in much needed rainfall over southeast portions of the area as moisture convergence is forecast to increase there later today.
559 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) Satellite imagery this morning clearly shows upper level low pressure/upper troughing over SE Louisiana. Precipitation will have difficulty making in to the surface as high pressure over the mid Atlantic and the aforementioned gulf coast system provide widespread easterly flow so only a few hundredths of an inch of rain at the most, are expected. Guidance continues to show this system slowly pulling out as the day progresses and followed by a weak upper ridge. This ridge will provide dry conditions for Thursday but will exit the region quickly as a cold front approaches Thursday night.
918 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 High pressure will keep warm and dry weather in the forecast today through Thursday.
Tonight, a more active weather pattern will bring cooler and more unsettled weather that is forecast to last through the weekend.
645 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 High pressure will keep warm and dry weather in the forecast today through Thursday.
204 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2023 Key Messages: -Elevated fire weather conditions today and Thursday -Local strong downslope winds for the southern Black Hills tonight -Strong cold front/northwest winds on Thursday Current surface places trough across eastern Montana into western South Dakota. Cold front dives through the forecast area Thursday with 4-6mb/3hr pressure rises and 40-45kt winds at the top of the mixed layer. While temperatures will be cooler and humidity a bit higher on Thursday, winds will maintain elevated fire weather conditions on the plains. Upper level ridge rebounds heading into the weekend, with warmer temperatures and dry weather.
659 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 Dry and warmer weather will continue through Thursday under high pressure.
- Cooler and windy Thursday with a slight chance for rain showers mainly southwest.
A few locations with 10 kt winds from the WSW along the higher terrain westside of the RRV along the escarpment are still above 32F.
(Today through Thursday) Early morning surface observations show high pressure is in place across south central Texas. Winds are light and variable and temperatures currently range from the lower 40s in a few spots across the Hill Country to the mid 50s along the Rio Grande and coastal plains. Expect more sunshine on Thursday along with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
Otherwise, warmer again today with highs climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected through Thursday.
439 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 Dry and warmer weather will continue through Thursday under high pressure.
413 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Today through tonight: A low closing off over the northern Gulf of Mexico almost appears to be detached from the westerlies as it meanders through the semi-permanent longwave ridge axis, and all guidance agree it will not be in a hurry to leave the area as a result. Weakening deformation zone ascent north of the low center is keeping some light rain around east of the MS River, but it's possible we'll see an uptick in much needed rainfall over southeast portions of the area as moisture convergence is forecast to increase there later today.
417 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2023 Key Messages: -Elevated fire weather conditions today and Thursday -Local strong downslope winds for the southern Black Hills tonight -Strong cold front/northwest winds on Thursday Current surface places trough across eastern Montana into western South Dakota. Cold front dives through the forecast area Thursday with 4-6mb/3hr pressure rises and 40-45kt winds at the top of the mixed layer. While temperatures will be cooler and humidity a bit higher on Thursday, winds will maintain elevated fire weather conditions on the plains. Upper level ridge rebounds heading into the weekend, with warmer temperatures and dry weather.
415 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 Dry and warmer weather will continue through Thursday under high pressure.
321 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 (Issued 322 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023) Today through Thursday Night: Will continue with unseasonably mild temps today into Thursday as upper-level ridge builds across the Upper Great Lakes. Looking at daily highs to top off in the low to mid 60s each day. Additionally Thursday looks a bit windier with a 45-55kt 850mb jet pushing across WI through the day as a mid-level trough works its way across the region.
- A shift to more seasonable temperatures expected after the passage of cold front Thursday night. Strong warm air advection could allow high temperatures on Thursday to reach the low 60s for much of the area, but the passage of a cold front in the evening will knock down the lows below freezing.
Afternoon temperatures will run a few degrees warmer than previous days, with highs from the low to mid 70s. Ridging aloft will continue to dominate the weather pattern on Thursday.
319 AM PST Wed Nov 15 2023 An upper level closed low off the California coast will bring periods of rain, thunderstorms, and very high elevation mountain snow through the weekend.
541 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 (Today through Thursday) Early morning surface observations show high pressure is in place across south central Texas. Winds are light and variable and temperatures currently range from the lower 40s in a few spots across the Hill Country to the mid 50s along the Rio Grande and coastal plains. Expect more sunshine on Thursday along with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
(Today through Thursday Night) Satellite imagery this morning clearly shows upper level low pressure/upper troughing over SE Louisiana. Precipitation will have difficulty making in to the surface as high pressure over the mid Atlantic and the aforementioned gulf coast system provide widespread easterly flow so only a few hundredths of an inch of rain at the most, are expected. Guidance continues to show this system slowly pulling out as the day progresses and followed by a weak upper ridge. This ridge will provide dry conditions for Thursday but will exit the region quickly as a cold front approaches Thursday night.
Periods of light rain will continue through the week as the upper level low off the California Coast stalls and eventually moves east.
Morning cirrus will depart, and other than patches of mid-day altostratus riding through with a weak mid-level trough, plenty of sunshine is expected. A fair amount of sunshine is also likely for Thursday, though thicker cirrus/cirrostratus should stream in ahead of a more potent upper- level trough.
523 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 (Today through Thursday) Key Messages: - Coastal Flood Advisory/Moderate Rip Current Risk - Near normal temperatures No change to the forecast as subsidence is in control with a mid- level high pressure over Mexico building eastward keeping South Texas under a dry northwesterly flow.
This will make for an ideal day to be outdoors! Tonight: Clear with a light south wind and lows in the lower 40s. Key messages: 1) A change is coming Thursday night with a cold front. 2) Much cooler into the weekend 3) ECMWF is back showing a decent cyclone in the Midwest Details: Thursday: You will notice that a change in the weather is coming in the form of windy conditions. A nice 40-50 kt LLJ is progged across the forecast area, ahead of a digging progressive trough. Thursday night: The digging trough will be accompanied by a rather strong cold front sweeping across the area.
(Today through Thursday) Key Messages: - Coastal Flood Advisory/Moderate Rip Current Risk - Near normal temperatures No change to the forecast as subsidence is in control with a mid- level high pressure over Mexico building eastward keeping South Texas under a dry northwesterly flow.
622 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 High pressure will be in control through the end of the week, with warm temperatures and dry conditions expected.
Some light rain may linger near the I-85 and US HWY 80 corridor tomorrow morning, but rain chances should continue to diminish by the afternoon as the mid-level trough axis moves east of the area. High pressure along the East Coast will maintain a wedging setup along the Appalachians and continue to provide easterly low-level winds. Temperatures have been slightly overperforming the past few days, so I leaned towards some of the warmer solutions and expect highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s tomorrow.
High temperatures in the lower to mid 70s are expected area-wide.
However, high pressure looks to reassert control for the start of the next workweek. Tonight through Thursday Large cut off low pressure area off the coast of California continues meander slowly as it remains blocked by upper ridge axis over the the southwestern US.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ Mid-level ridging and dry air aloft will keep pleasant weather across North and Central Texas through Thursday. High temperatures will reach the low 70s across much of the region this afternoon, a few degrees above-average for mid-November. Similar temperatures are expected on Thursday with widespread afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.