Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The broad scale continues to be characterized by upper trough across the Hudson Bay and large upper ridge across the western US. Steep lapse rates in the lowest half of the atmosphere have lead to 3500-4500 J/kg of CAPE. These storms may develop into a complex, rolling down the thermal ridge into the region Tuesday morning. Questions remain about how quickly atmosphere will be able to recover tomorrow with increasing southerly flow as weak area of low pressure moves eastward across Kansas.
(This evening through Tuesday) Upper level high pressure is fully in control of the weather across the forecast area with clear skies courtesy of subsidence from the upper ridge. The center of this ridge has shifted eastward to western New Mexico and will shift a but farther eastward tomorrow.
Current temperatures are in the low to middle 80s and should top out between 90 and 94 degrees.
We can then look forward to a more traditional summer like Monday! Upper level ridging will be building in from the west which will lead to temperatures rising in to the low to mid 90s. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
More storms are firing up over Missouri as I type this and with general troughiness over the TN Valley, at some point, I would expect convection to make its way into the mid-state.
Winds have been breezy across the area but so far at least, remain rather unimpressive outside of the highest mountain peaks. As the front shifts east of the region, broad zonal flow will bring slightly cooler temps, not much though, for Tuesday with breezy winds likely persisting across a good chunk of the region but below any advisory levels.
159 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 High pressure will be shifting to the south through Tuesday.
That said, if we can clear clouds out earlier for the northwoods, temperatures could drop faster before sunrise, dropping into the lower 40s.
Winds will decrease behind the passage of a cold front, however, they are expected to remain elevated through the evening hours especially across the Kittitas Valley and Columbia Basin and Gorge.
1239 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Scattered thunderstorms will develop ahead of a slow-moving cold front this afternoon. Further north, the remainder of central Illinois will remain dry until a cold front currently extending from near Milwaukee to just north of Kansas City settles southward and triggers widely scattered convection later this morning into the afternoon. After a few lingering showers/storms across the SE CWA this evening, cooler/drier conditions will filter southward overnight. High temperatures today will mostly be in the lower to middle 80s, while lows tonight dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
228 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Broad troughing remains aloft over the eastern part of the U. this afternoon, with the base of this trough extending over the Florida peninsula. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis remains south of the region with weak low pressure and associated frontal boundary over the southeast. For Tuesday, the mid/upper trough will lift northeastward as ridging builds in to our west.
1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 (Today and tonight) The heat returns to the forecast area today as the 600 dam 500 mb ridge expands towards us. At the surface, troughing will also develop leading to a return of southerly to southwesterly winds around 15 mph across the area.
1008 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Cooler start this morning thanks to convection/outflow from storms yesterday afternoon/evening.
244 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Smoke still persists, sandwiched between the cold front across south-central MT and through Rosebud County, as a southeast flow pushes in on its eastern edge. However, that cold front is what will fully push the smoke out of the area throughout this afternoon and evening. The cold front is currently passing over Billings as of 1 PM, bringing an early coating of cloud cover and light rain showers across areas at and west of Billings.
Cooler temperatures for the weekend with very low rain chances. will be dominated by a trough through this forecast period. The trough and associated instability and abundant moisture will aid in thunderstorm development west of the forecast area each afternoon through the night starting Tuesday night. By the weekend, the trough deepens enough to push a frontal boundary well into Georgia and Alabama. Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 94 73 94 / 10 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 91 71 90 / 20 10 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 67 90 70 88 / 20 20 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 87 66 83 / 30 30 30 50.
(Rest of Today) An upper low (currently situated across southern Ontario and adjacent portions of the northern Great Lakes) is predicted to weaken and lift northeastward over the course of the day, with the trailing longwave trough axis shifting slowly eastward across the TN Valley late this afternoon and this evening. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms (which are currently in progress from eastern MO into north-central KY) are occurring in the vicinity of a weak surface cold front related to the mid-level trough, with latest guidance from both the global models and CAMs suggesting that convection will remain most concentrated in the OH Valley throughout the day.
(This evening through Tuesday) The 598+ dm upper ridge centered over the southwest U. 850mb temperatures are also forecasted to be a couple of degrees warmer than today. The upper level ridge, which is currently centered near the AZ/NM line, is expected to expand eastward while flattening as an upper level trough moves east across the northern CONUS and into the Great Lakes area.
Strong mid-upper level high pressure continues to expand eastward today bringing hot temperatures across much of the state.
1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 A cold front is making southeastward progress out of Wisconsin early this morning, and upstream dewpoints are dropping through the 50s and into the upper 40s. Lingering dewpoints in the low to mid 60s south of the Illinois and Kankakee Rivers will result in just a bit of surface-based instability with heating today.
The cold front at 20z remains draped across far northeast MO into west central IL. Convergence is not great along the cold front, however is better from St. The combination of an intensifying 40+ kt southwesterly LLJ, another northwest flow short wave trof, MUCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/KG, and deep layer shear of 40+ kts will support the development of elevated severe storms along and north of the stalled boundary between St.
317 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 As a cold front slips southward through tonight, the persistent haze is expected to fade away by morning. Main concerns in this period: 1) Convection through this evening, then MCS trends for Tuesday 2) Eventual waning of the haze/smoke layer Early afternoon weather map shows the cold front is located roughly from the northern St. Will concentrate the highest PoP's Tuesday night south of a Rushville- Paris line, and have lowered them north of I-74.
The large upper level low and associated troughing that has been dominant over our CWA this past weekend will give way to the large upper level high and ridging to our west. A strong high pressure (598-599 dam) will dominate much of the west central portion of the CONUS and eventually spread to the ArkLaMiss region. Along with the high pressure, an upper ridge centered over Texas will build in which will help keep the region rain free but will also maximize high temperatures.
So far capping from the cooler outflow is holding these attempts at bay, but with continued heating this afternoon we may see the cap break along the boundary. Temperatures near 90, dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, and steep lapse rates aloft are contributing to 3000 to 4000 J/kg of ML CAPE in this area. Upper support is also limited with the trough axis now to our east and rising heights aloft. Overnight the boundary will remain in a northwest/southeast orientation across the area, but will push back north some as a warm front.
1203 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 (Rest of Today) An upper low (currently situated across southern Ontario and adjacent portions of the northern Great Lakes) is predicted to weaken and lift northeastward over the course of the day, with the trailing longwave trough axis shifting slowly eastward across the TN Valley late this afternoon and this evening. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms (which are currently in progress from eastern MO into north-central KY) are occurring in the vicinity of a weak surface cold front related to the mid-level trough, with latest guidance from both the global models and CAMs suggesting that convection will remain most concentrated in the OH Valley throughout the day.
(Through Tuesday) Ridging will begin to build in from the west throughout the near term period with rain chances lowering and temperatures rising. Overnight lows are forecast in the low to mid 70s.
230 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Current conditions show elevated cirrus moving along a cold front through central GA. The main driving trough axis is located over the Eastern Midwest and into the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures today will peak in the low to mid 90s.
408 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Somewhat unsettled weather returns on Tuesday as an upper trough arrives resulting in a return of scattered showers and thunderstorms some of which could be strong during the afternoon.
154 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2023 A cold front will continue east across eastern portions of north- central and southwest Montana through late this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms and the front moving east of the area by this evening.
Additional strong storms may be possible Tuesday afternoon ahead a surface warm front, or ahead of an EML.
/14 (Now through Tuesday) The base of a broad upper trough continues to linger over the Southeast this afternoon. Drier air has filtered into the area behind this trough and on the backside of the upper trough with PWAT values ranging from 1. Highs are still on track to top out in the lower to middle 90s later this afternoon. By Tuesday, an upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest flattens out and builds eastward into the local area. The building ridge will lead to even hotter temps on Tuesday with highs in the mid and upper 90s for most inland areas and the lower 90s near the coast.
257 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 An anomalously strong midlevel trough (500 mb heights -2 to -3 stdev on the 00Z/17 NAEFS) centered over the Great Lakes continues to impact the weather locally. Record low maximum for today at WFO Marquette is 61F, and so far the high at has been 63F as of 2 pm. With the upper level pattern in motion again, the ridge that was over the west coast will be pushed over the Upper Midwest, leading to a more dry Tuesday for the western portions of the UP. The upper trough that's been over Ontario lately is trending more stubborn though, leading to some midlevel vorticity still sticking around the east half, and combined with lift from a CAM-proposed Lake Michigan lake breeze and diurnal instability, a few showers are possible Tuesday afternoon.
358 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 The passage of the cold front has begun to clear up the hazy skies caused by smoke from wildfires in west and central Canada by pushing the smoke field to the east. The upper level pattern into the midweek will see two mid/upper troughs, one across the southern Canadian Rockies and the other over the northern Great Lakes, and the southwestern CONUS high pressure ridge.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues The stubborn upper-level high pressure is expected to so expanded eastward through tomorrow night increasing subsidence and promoting slightly warmer temperatures than today.
1254 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 (Today and tonight) High pressure will continue to build across the region driving temperatures even higher for today. Pretty much all of our models continue this high pressure across the region giving us high confidence in this forecast.
719 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Broad troughing remains aloft over the eastern part of the U. this afternoon, with the base of this trough extending over the Florida peninsula. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis remains south of the region with weak low pressure and associated frontal boundary over the southeast. For Tuesday, the mid/upper trough will lift northeastward as ridging builds in to our west.
A cold front could impact the region this weekend. An unseasonably strong mid-lvl trough will exit across the eastern Atlantic through mid-week, becoming replaced by broad ridging extending across the southern half of the United States. At the sfc, high pressure will prevail across the eastern Atlantic while weak troughing remains inland.
Cooler temperatures for the weekend with very low rain chances. will be dominated by a trough through this forecast period. The trough and associated instability and abundant moisture will aid in thunderstorm development west of the forecast area each afternoon through the night starting Tuesday night. By the weekend, the trough deepens enough to push a frontal boundary well into Georgia and Alabama. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 94 74 94 / 10 20 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 91 72 89 / 10 40 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 67 89 71 88 / 10 30 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 87 67 83 / 20 30 40 60.
658 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 The mid cloud deck now advancing across NW Lower Mi developed diurnally beneath the mid level cold pool associated with the upper low to the north of the Great Lakes. The passage of the cold front has begun to clear up the hazy skies caused by smoke from wildfires in west and central Canada by pushing the smoke field to the east. The upper level pattern into the midweek will see two mid/upper troughs, one across the southern Canadian Rockies and the other over the northern Great Lakes, and the southwestern CONUS high pressure ridge.
909 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 As a cold front slips southward through tonight, the persistent haze is expected to fade away by morning. 37 Main concerns in this period: 1) Convection through this evening, then MCS trends for Tuesday 2) Eventual waning of the haze/smoke layer Early afternoon weather map shows the cold front is located roughly from the northern St. Will concentrate the highest PoP's Tuesday night south of a Rushville- Paris line, and have lowered them north of I-74.
High pressure over nw IA will move to the MS River for Tue. The exact positioning of high pressure system as it passes over southeastern WI leads to some uncertainty in the wind direction for Tuesday, but the quiet synoptic pattern should set the stage for lake breeze development.
621 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Upper level high pressure is fully in control of the weather across the forecast area with clear skies courtesy of subsidence from the upper ridge. The center of this ridge has shifted eastward to western New Mexico and will shift a but farther eastward tomorrow.
331 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2023 High pressure is trying to hold on today as the ridge axis passes through Wyoming. There is some decent high cloud cover, which could keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than earlier forecasts. A strong surface pressure gradient currently extends across the area as a cold front moves east from western Wyoming. Given the low humidity, this will create elevated fire weather conditions for most, with critical conditions across central and southern Wyoming where humidity will drop into the lower teens. The ridge is not the only player in today's forecast game as a trough across the northwest begins to flatten it. Current observations are showing temperature/dew point spreads ranging from the 40s on the lower end to over 70 degrees (KRKS), so the potential for severe outflow wind is certainly there today.
701 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 (Through Tuesday) Ridging will begin to build in from the west throughout the near term period with rain chances lowering and temperatures rising. Overnight lows are forecast in the low to mid 70s.
647 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Upper-level ridge across the desert southwest to begin to build eastward during the short-term period ending Tuesday night. Accordingly, subsidence associated with the ridge will allow for temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 90s along and north of I-20 and to 100 to 103 degrees south. With dewpoint values in the lower 70s, heat index values will exceed 105 degrees areawide prompting a continuation of the the ongoing Heat Advisory through Tuesday.
Thunderstorm chances will shift east of the area overnight as upper heights rise due to the expanding mid level ridge spreading into the Southern Plains from the southwest. Most location will stay in the mid 70s with some across the north dipping into the low 70s. Bowlan (Tomorrow through Monday) The dome of high pressure will be the dominate feature across the Southern Plains through mid week. Underneath this ridge. the low level thermal axis is forecast to shift eastward with the help of breezy to gusty southwesterly flow.
753 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Somewhat unsettled weather returns on Tuesday as an upper trough arrives resulting in a return of scattered showers and thunderstorms some of which could be strong during the afternoon.
Otherwise, warm and dry conditions return through much of the week ahead under stronger high pressure.
807 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Isolated showers and storms will remain possible overnight as a weak cold front continues the chance into early Tuesday.
503 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Highs over the plains are in the lower to mid 90s currently. The upper ridge is progged to move slowly eastward tonight and Tuesday with moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft. For temperatures, Tuesday highs are 2-3 C cooler than this afternoon's. We'll continue to receive moisture through northwesterly as an upper level high pressure weakens south of our CWA.
High pressure continue its grip over Nevada. High pressure remains centered over the Desert Southwest, but high level moisture will be circulating across Nevada.
A cold front will continue east across eastern portions of north- central and southwest Montana through late this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms and the front moving east of the area by this evening.
Despite some drier air sampled in the lower to mid levels on this evening's sounding, storms were able to proliferate along this boundary all the way to the Lower Keys. The activity targeted the Lower Keys, and the Middle and Upper Keys have remained dry. Even most of the Lower Keys were gipped of rainfall as these storms fell apart as they approached the island chain. Luckily for island communities in the Lower Keys, temperatures did drop into the lower 80s as the outflow plowed through, giving some "relief" from the oppressive temperatures we have been experiencing. Weak subtropical ridging remains in control, and marine observation platforms along the Florida Reef range between 7-9 knots. For tonight, the Gulf waters and nearshore waters north of the Lower Keys will be worked over.
Cooler temperatures for the weekend with very low rain chances. will be dominated by a trough through this forecast period. The trough and associated instability and abundant moisture will aid in thunderstorm development west of the forecast area each afternoon through the night starting Tuesday night. By the weekend, the trough deepens enough to push a frontal boundary well into Georgia and Alabama. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 94 74 94 / 0 20 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 91 72 89 / 10 30 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 67 89 71 88 / 10 30 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 87 67 83 / 10 30 40 60.
535 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2023 High pressure is trying to hold on today as the ridge axis passes through Wyoming. There is some decent high cloud cover, which could keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than earlier forecasts. A strong surface pressure gradient currently extends across the area as a cold front moves east from western Wyoming. Given the low humidity, this will create elevated fire weather conditions for most, with critical conditions across central and southern Wyoming where humidity will drop into the lower teens. The ridge is not the only player in today's forecast game as a trough across the northwest begins to flatten it. Current observations are showing temperature/dew point spreads ranging from the 40s on the lower end to over 70 degrees (KRKS), so the potential for severe outflow wind is certainly there today.
Interior valleys will then warm toward the low 100s during late week.
549 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Highs over the plains are in the lower to mid 90s currently. The upper ridge is progged to move slowly eastward tonight and Tuesday with moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft. For temperatures, Tuesday highs are 2-3 C cooler than this afternoon's. We'll continue to receive moisture through northwesterly as an upper level high pressure weakens south of our CWA.
Broad troughing remains aloft over the eastern part of the U. this afternoon, with the base of this trough extending over the Florida peninsula. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis remains south of the region with weak low pressure and associated frontal boundary over the southeast. For Tuesday, the mid/upper trough will lift northeastward as ridging builds in to our west.
725 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 A building ridge from the west will provide drier than normal conditions.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Current conditions show elevated cirrus moving along a cold front through central GA. The main driving trough axis is located over the Eastern Midwest and into the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures today will peak in the low to mid 90s.
1038 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Somewhat unsettled weather returns on Tuesday as an upper trough arrives resulting in a return of scattered showers and thunderstorms some of which could be strong during the afternoon.
752 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 A cold front will push through the region tonight and Tuesday with the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.
BT Smoke still persists, sandwiched between the cold front across south-central MT and through Rosebud County, as a southeast flow pushes in on its eastern edge. However, that cold front is what will fully push the smoke out of the area throughout this afternoon and evening. The cold front is currently passing over Billings as of 1 PM, bringing an early coating of cloud cover and light rain showers across areas at and west of Billings.
648 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 A cold front will push through the region tonight and Tuesday with the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.
606 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) The 598+ dm upper ridge centered over the southwest U. 850mb temperatures are also forecasted to be a couple of degrees warmer than today. The upper level ridge, which is currently centered near the AZ/NM line, is expected to expand eastward while flattening as an upper level trough moves east across the northern CONUS and into the Great Lakes area.
731 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 (Through Tuesday) Ridging will begin to build in from the west throughout the near term period with rain chances lowering and temperatures rising. Overnight lows are forecast in the low to mid 70s.
630 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues The stubborn upper-level high pressure is expected to so expanded eastward through tomorrow night increasing subsidence and promoting slightly warmer temperatures than today.
630 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 As a cold front slips southward through tonight, the persistent haze is expected to fade away by morning. Main concerns in this period: 1) Convection through this evening, then MCS trends for Tuesday 2) Eventual waning of the haze/smoke layer Early afternoon weather map shows the cold front is located roughly from the northern St. Will concentrate the highest PoP's Tuesday night south of a Rushville- Paris line, and have lowered them north of I-74.