Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper low will transit south- central Nevada today will bring more chances for showers and thunderstorms Today and again Monday. A stout upper low currently over the Gulf of Catalina will continue to push inland as it begins to lift NW while slowly weakening. As the low approaches today, it will set the environment up for the potential of severe weather not only for today but for Monday as well. Temperatures, thanks to clouds and precipitation will be a touch cooler today and Monday with Highs ranging in the low 70s to mid 80s, while overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Temperatures are hovering in the lower 80s at most locations, along with steady southerly breezes of 5 to 10 mph. High pressure over the western Atlantic has shifted northward during the past 24 hours, with the Keys lying in gentle southerly flow along the western side of this feature. However, we do have weak troughing aloft rather than the ridge we typically see this time of year, the statistical guidance is holding steady around 30 percent, and some of the CAM guidance does show convective development later on, especially around the Upper Keys.
Disturbance lifts out from the mean long wave trough in the Great Basin with winds aloft increasing.
Expect cooler temperatures on Monday behind the front as the cooler and drier air from the northwest filters into the region.
242 AM MDT Sun Jun 11 2023 An upper ridge from southern Canada has nosed southward into eastern Montana. An upper low over southern Nevada will spin energy up into the western zones the next two days. Most activity today and Monday will be tied to the higher terrain of the mountains and foothills and have a hard time moving out onto the central plains.
303 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Quiet weather expected as ensembles and short term models indicate the blocking pattern continuing. Being behind the low has resulted in tighter pressure gradients along with gustier 850mb winds, per Rap. Winds early this morning were gusting between 20-35kts across the CWA with the highest gusts along the axis of the LLJ. This low out east will deepen and move only slightly south/become stationary, as it nears being if not totally stacked, through Monday with the low/trough out west starting to push east. Warmer air moves in for Monday with temps back into the upper 70s/lower 80s.
Between upper level ridging dominating across Texas the next few days and westerly downslope winds funneling in behind a surging dryline each afternoon, temperatures will soar well into the upper 90s and low 100s both today and Monday. The low-level thermal ridge strengthens by a few degrees Celsius between today and tomorrow afternoon, so Monday looks to be a tad warmer than today, especially along and south of the Pecos. As an upper trough pushes into the Four Corners on Monday, increased upper flow may aid in the development of a storm or two off the dryline across the western Low Rolling Plains.
There will however be a slight chance to low chance for showers and thunderstorms along and north of a line from Joes to Goodland and Oakley for much of the morning 850-500mb moisture is maximized in between an upper level low to our northeast and southwest.
530 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler with limited rain chances until late this coming week. - Possible elevated fire weather risk with a building ridge and drier air mass this coming week. Short wave will evolve into more of a closed upper low across western Great Lakes next 24 hours or so, which is supported by stronger rotation noted in water vapor imagery across Ontario. This will keep us cooler next couple days with possibility /15-25%/ of showers west of upper low, mainly as close as central Wisconsin.
615 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 (Today and tonight) For today, our area will be under a ridge aloft, extending from Mexico north across Texas. This looks to be a dirty ridge, with our area having some low thunderstorm chances later this afternoon and evening. Trailing portion of a cold front should sag south into the far northern Big Country late this afternoon and evening. While confidence in development and placement of convection is low across the central and southwestern parts of our area, potential hazards would include localized, strong downburst winds (inverted V type soundings) and hail (likely sub-severe with partial melting in the low-level hot airmass), along with lightning.
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon as a cold front moves through the Mid South this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures across the state range from the upper 70s along the Nature Coast into the lower 80s from Tampa Bay southward. Afternoon highs will top out right around average for this time of year with almost everyone reaching the lower 90s. The southwest flow remains across the region with the high pressure to our south and the stalled boundaries to our north. Overnight lows will fall into the lower 70s areawide.
Southwest winds will increase today, especially for eastern Arizona, as a low pressure system moves toward the area.
Upper air analysis shows slight height rises at 70H and 50H as an upper level ridge tries to build into the forecast area from the southwest. Not seeing any real disturbances trying to move around the ridge into or near the forecast area today. Therefore, rain chances should be lower this afternoon with mainly isolated diurnal storms around the periphery of the ridge and mainly across east central Louisiana and down the Atchafalaya Basin.
Current surface analysis places high pressure over the south central Provinces into the Northern Plains. For today into tonight, high pressure both at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate the weather pattern. Quiet weather and a warming trend is expected for the first couple days of the work week with upper level ridging over the area. A pattern change is then expected to develop mid-week as a potent Pacific trough pushes into the region as the ridge slides east. There is some question as to how quick this develops as some downstream blocking may impede the timing of this.
High pressure will continue to ridge south of the area as a stalled boundary meanders to the north of the area through the period.
Moisture continues to wrap around a large closed low over southern California, producing plenty of high clouds over far northern California and southern Oregon. This moisture inflow will continue to produce afternoon showers and thunderstorms today into Monday, although activity will diminish and shift farther to the southeast each day as the low slowly drifts east into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, at the surface, the thermal trough has returned to the south coast, which has cleared out much of the marine layer clouds south of Cape Blanco, and allowed for warmer temperatures along the south coast due to the Chetco effect.
949 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Warm and increasingly humid conditions will return to the area today as southerly winds develop around high pressure moving farther offshore.
641 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will continue to move east over the forecast area today which will lead to hot temperatures again. A weak cold front will slide south and stall in the forecast area and should keep high temperatures in the southern Texas Panhandle slightly cooler in the upper 80s compared to the rest of the area where highs are expected to be in the 90s. Precipitation chances will be low today and tonight as the ridging moves overhead but model guidance indicates an outside chance of a thunderstorm or two.
A mostly sunny day is on tap for western and central ND with highs in the 70s F and light winds owing to the influence of ridging at the surface and aloft. Current surface analysis places high pressure over the south central Provinces into the Northern Plains. For today into tonight, high pressure both at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate the weather pattern. Quiet weather and a warming trend is expected for the first couple days of the work week with upper level ridging over the area. A pattern change is then expected to develop mid-week as a potent Pacific trough pushes into the region as the ridge slides east. There is some question as to how quick this develops as some downstream blocking may impede the timing of this.
Northwesterly flow aloft, ahead of an upper trough over the Intermountain West and boosted by another upper trough shifting south over the Great Lakes, will continue to funnel embedded disturbances our way. Temperature maximums are expected in the low-to-mid 90s as a result with partly cloudy skies. The same storm activity will linger past sunset before diminishing, leaving most temperature minimums in the low 70s tonight. This frontal zone will be set between a very strong east-west amplified upper ridge across Mexico extending eastward into the GOM, and troughing will dominate much of the eastern CONUS and farther west into the Southern Plains early in the week.
By mid week, a stronger weather disturbance will begin to move into Central MT, resulting in cooler temperatures and some windy conditions.
Quiet weather expected as ensembles and short term models indicate the blocking pattern continuing. Being behind the low has resulted in tighter pressure gradients along with gustier 850mb winds, per Rap. Winds early this morning were gusting between 20-35kts across the CWA with the highest gusts along the axis of the LLJ. This low out east will deepen and move only slightly south/become stationary, as it nears being if not totally stacked, through Monday with the low/trough out west starting to push east. Warmer air moves in for Monday with temps back into the upper 70s/lower 80s.
Despite the high pressure building into the area, just enough wind lingers to prevent most temperatures from tanking to their dew points amidst clear skies. However, a few spots that have their winds staying calm can get their temps around the low to mid 40s, perhaps an upper 30 within Devils Lake basin. As the high pressure continues to build into the region, just enough of a pressure gradient will remain in place within Minnesota and southern Red River Valley to keep northeast winds around 10 mph. Most hi res and global ensemble guidance favors a return to above average temperatures Monday as upper ridging pushes into the area from Canada.
549 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 (Today through Monday night) A cold front was pushing southward across the northwest part of the area. The low clouds may keep the Panhandles stable enough that we may not see much convection on Monday afternoon into Monday night. However, there is another short wave trough that moves across northern sections which could spark some convection.
632 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 A cool front will move south today and bring cooler air across the region. A wave will eventually develop into a low pressure area and move northeast along the front.
A warm front is expected to be farther south in Texas, so the main forcing will initially be some weak isentropic ascent north of this boundary. Thunderstorms may become more widespread overnight as the low-level jet increases from southwest Texas up toward the Red River, but decreasing MUCAPE will keep any severe weather from becoming too widespread. Meanwhile, upslope flow on the High Plains will likely aid in thunderstorm development there which will make a run for northwest Oklahoma tonight as well, and there will be some wind potential with that.
A low pressure system moving across southern California will provide for showers and thunderstorms today across the mountains with a chances of precipitation possible over portions of the San Joaquin Valley and desert areas. High temperatures will cool a few degrees today and Monday then trend warmer through the end of the week. Anomalously strong upper low pressure system over Socal providing our area with unsettled weather this weekend. As the low moves slowly eastward across Socal it will continue to pull up some deep moisture and spread it northward into central CA.
Changes to this pattern are still very slow, and this blocking will continue through at least the first half of this week.
656 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Warm and increasingly humid conditions will return to the area today as southerly winds develop around high pressure moving farther offshore.
Some weak and diffuse troughing remains in place over the Florida Keys and the Gulf of Mexico in the upper levels. In the lower to mid levels, a distant western North Atlantic ridge continues to nudge its way westward slowly towards western Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico. This ridge has a little better grip on the area today, hence, the more stout southerly flow through the Keys. From synopsis, high pressure will remain over the western Atlantic for the next several days, with a ridge extending westward through the Bahamas and the Florida Keys.
Ridging aloft will continue to settle over the region through the short term period, increasing subsidence and limiting our rain chances. However, a few spotty showers will remain possible this afternoon across the Rio Grande Plains owing to some weaknesses in the ridge, but most of the area should remain dry. As previously advertised, temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees warmer each day, which combined with dewpoints in the 70s will lead to more widespread dangerous heat index values.
411 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Current surface analysis places high pressure over the south central Provinces into the Northern Plains. For today into tonight, high pressure both at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate the weather pattern. Quiet weather and a warming trend is expected for the first couple days of the work week with upper level ridging over the area. A pattern change is then expected to develop mid-week as a potent Pacific trough pushes into the region as the ridge slides east. There is some question as to how quick this develops as some downstream blocking may impede the timing of this.
Satellite imagery shows a low pressure system spinning near the border of MO/IL this morning. Keep in mind that this is a low confidence forecast this afternoon as greater confidence in severe weather is this evening along the approaching cold front.
(Today and tonight) The mid/upper level low that brought isolated convection across the Central Coast yesterday is currently pushing inland over southern California. As such, deeper moisture aloft continues to advect counter-clockwise around the cut-off low and across the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast. While convection will be less widespread today, there remains a 10-20% probability of afternoon showers/thunderstorms to develop over interior San Benito County and far northern Napa County as the upper level low continues to spin over southern California.
549 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 (Today) An active day of weather is forecasted for the Tennessee Valley region today, especially during the afternoon and evening as multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible along/ahead of a cold front. Ahead of the cold front, southerly flow will continue to advect in a warm, moist air mass as seen by dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s and PWATs climbing into the 1.
Upper level ridge centered over Southern British Columbia today will move south over Washington Monday.
Strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon as a cold front moves through the Mid South this afternoon and evening.
1144 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Remarkable cold advection at mid day, under clouds and northeast winds, we're seeing temperatures in our central and southern CWA fall each hour! That's amazing for June 11! Anyhow, I've lowered highs to a more conservative rise this afternoon, as it appears the cloud cover will hold through late day, and highs in the lower to mid 60s are more reachable, than around 70. We will dry out this afternoon with skies clearing out for tonight as flow shifts to the north behind the departing cold front.
1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will continue to move east over the forecast area today which will lead to hot temperatures again. A weak cold front will slide south and stall in the forecast area and should keep high temperatures in the southern Texas Panhandle slightly cooler in the upper 80s compared to the rest of the area where highs are expected to be in the 90s. Precipitation chances will be low today and tonight as the ridging moves overhead but model guidance indicates an outside chance of a thunderstorm or two.
239 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 The upper-low currently centered over Lake Superior will drift SSE into southern lower Michigan through Monday as a series of embedded vort maxima rotate around the low. Subsidence behind the most prominent trough axis entering northern Illinois this afternoon will suppress remaining light rain showers across the southeastern CWA through late afternoon.
With the high moving in, should see the gusty winds diminish this afternoon. Quiet weather expected as ensembles and short term models indicate the blocking pattern continuing. Being behind the low has resulted in tighter pressure gradients along with gustier 850mb winds, per Rap. Winds early this morning were gusting between 20-35kts across the CWA with the highest gusts along the axis of the LLJ. This low out east will deepen and move only slightly south/become stationary, as it nears being if not totally stacked, through Monday with the low/trough out west starting to push east. Warmer air moves in for Monday with temps back into the upper 70s/lower 80s.
126 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 A cool front will move south today and bring cooler air across the region.
315 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Cooler weather to start the work week. Large scale ascent/right entrance forcing with northern stream trough/wave and just enough moisture (12Z DTX sounding indicting PW values around 1 inch) to support light rain showers working through southeast Michigan this evening.
With Td depressions only around a couple of degrees and forecast soundings showing some shallow saturation at the surface, wouldn't be surprised to see ground fog develop in the low-lying areas and river valleys overnight into the early morning. A low-amplitude upper ridge moves across the region Monday with high temperatures remaining on the cool but pleasant side in the 70s.
Temperatures remain cooler than what we would expect for this point in June. Some flooding concerns still exist in northern Nevada, especially along the lower Humboldt River.
Strong mid/upper ridging centered across central Mexico will continue expanding eastward into the area.
235 PM MDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Current surface analysis shows high pressure over ND, with frontal boundary located along the lee of the Rockies. Upper level analysis continues to show general blocking pattern in place, with high over southern SK, cutoff low across the southwest US, and a trough over the Great Lakes region. A few showers/thundershowers are noted over southern Campbell County and the higher terrain to the south and west. Relatively quiet weather is expected through the first half of the week as upper high to the north slides southeast into the region and weakens with time. Weak energy passing across to the southwest of the high should allow showers/storms to develop during the PM hours Monday across northeast WY and possibly the Black Hills.
/29 (Now through Monday) An upper low centered over the Great Lakes strengthens a bit during the period while an upper ridge over the southern and central Plains persists through Monday morning then begins to weaken in the afternoon.
1247 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler with limited rain chances until late this coming week. - Possible elevated fire weather risk with a building ridge and drier air mass this coming week. Short wave will evolve into more of a closed upper low across western Great Lakes next 24 hours or so, which is supported by stronger rotation noted in water vapor imagery across Ontario. This will keep us cooler next couple days with possibility /15-25%/ of showers west of upper low, mainly as close as central Wisconsin.
1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 (The rest of today ) A cold front is making steady progress across southeast Kansas and will enter northeast Oklahoma around noon.
So far today, upper ridging has kept the region dry.
A trough remains centered over southern NV and CA this morning, bringing east-southeast flow aloft. The storms will generally form over the higher terrain and weaken as they move into the lower elevations, like the Snake Basin (Treasure Valley).
249 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Dry weather and light winds will persist through Monday, with a cool night tonight, and highs Monday about 5 degrees F warmer than today. The air mass is a bit warmer than last night, so lows tonight will be a bit warmer, as well, mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s F. However, we did lean toward the cooler edge of the guidance envelope with lows in typically-favored cool spots in southwestern and south central ND (e.
We're not expecting much if any precipitation lingering across the area on Monday afternoon as we remain under the influence of the Southern Plains ridging and the sfc frontal zone remains well south of the area where higher probabilities for showers and storms will reside. The higher probabilities for showers and storms will likely remain west of the area as we move into Tue. The mid/upper ridge over the southwest is progged to build into the High Plains as we move into the middle of the week bringing rising heights/increasing thickness and rising temperatures. The mid/upper ridge is progged to build over the Southern Plains through the period as we remain on the northern periphery of the enhanced H5 flow.
Temperatures aloft continue to be a bit warmer with less than impressive lapse rates, so the coverage of stronger storms will likely be more on the isolated side.
(Tonight) Satellite imagery shows a low pressure system moving east across the Ohio River Valley today with an attendant cold front draped to the south and west. As this moves east into an airmass with around 2000 j/kg of SBCAPE, convective initiation is possible despite most hires guidance keeping the forecast dry through the afternoon until the cold front arrives. However, the main concern for severe storms is as the cold front sweeps through the Tennessee Valley later this afternoon into the evening. The CAMs show 2000 j/kg of CAPE and 30-40 kts of bulk shear as the cold front moves from NW to SE across the forecast area.
Much of the state remains in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. Monday will kick off the work week sunny and cool with highs in the low 70s as northwest flow continues to dominate the pattern across Iowa.
An Enhanced Risk of severe weather exists for nearly all of the Midsouth a cold front moves across the region. 30/Sirmon Strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon as a cold front moves through the Mid South this afternoon and evening.
Overnight lows will bottom out in the low 50s under strong cold air advection with an added boost in some areas by a few hours of radiational cooling under a clear to mostly clear sky. The cold air advection will weaken into the evening, so despite a mostly clear sky overnight lows will be similar to tonight, if not a few degrees warmer.
An upper low over Lake Superior is moving southward, bringing drier air as the trough axis pivots out of southern Wisconsin.
The southwest flow remains across the region with the high pressure to our south and the slow moving boundaries to our north. Afternoon highs will top out right around average for this time of year with almost everyone reaching the lower 90s both today and Monday. Overnight lows will fall into the lower 70s areawide.
(The rest of today ) A cold front is making steady progress across southeast Kansas and will enter northeast Oklahoma around noon.
An unsettled pattern will continue across the Midsouth for the upcoming work week but cooler temperatures will be a welcomed change for the first half of the week.