Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Discussion: The closed upper low is currently over the western Carolinas, and this low will continue to drift slowly ENE and should be centered near the NC coast by the end of the short term period. The showers associated with the upper low over northern areas will gradually diminish in coverage and are expected to finally end this evening. As the low pulls slowly away, the clouds will begin to break up from southwest to northeast today into tonight with at least some sunshine this afternoon across southern and into central portions of the area. Temperatures will be around 6-12 degrees below normal today with the cooler values north with the most persistent cloud cover and precipitation.
247 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Warm, dry and mostly sunny weather expected through the week thanks to high pressure over the region.
Highs are still on track for the lower 80s this afternoon. For the rest of the day, the flow aloft will be westerly with weak southerly flow in the lower levels. Once again, best area for development will be over the Cheyenne Ridge with activity moving mainly east across the nrn tier of counties. Highs this aftn will be warmer as readings reach the upper 70s to mid 80s across nern CO. Our region will continue underneath the ridge from the blocking pattern through midweek.
This afternoon into tonight, CO disturbance looks to advance southeastward around the periphery of the NM ridge. Tuesday, NM upper ridge looks to shift eastward and weaken slightly. Additionally, the trend toward a bit cooler temperatures aloft should lead to an uptick in MLCAPE values to around 2000 J/kg.
This is also where the higher moisture levels per model 850mb theta-e and 1000-500mb RH layer progs will be located.
CAPEs as high as 2500 J/kg along with no cap, a seabreeze boundary, and an approaching mid/upper closed low/vort max in Central TX will produce scattered convection through this evening across the remainder of the RGV and Northern Ranchlands. The convection later this evening will likely have a southward propagation as the closed low/vort max continues diving southeastward. Convection should dissipate very quickly by early Tue evening as stronger subsidence begins to move eastward into the CWA due to the building mid/upper ridge axis aloft. Afternoon highs on Tue should be slightly warmer than today given less cloud cover and lower rain chances. Did adjust the highs upward slightly from the latest NBM guidance.
716 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 A cut-off upper low over South Carolina will drift northeast to Cape Hatteras tonight, then off the east coast by Tuesday.
504 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Strong and persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.
Reported rainfall wildly varies from location to location, with a few of the higher totals reaching around 1 inch.
835 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Strong and persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.
933 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 A cut-off upper low over South Carolina will drift northeast to Cape Hatteras tonight, then off the east coast by Tuesday.
620 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Our long streak of stormy evenings is set to take a break thanks to a sharpening upper ridge just to our west. As this ridge axis becomes poised squarely over the South Plains Tuesday afternoon, a dome of very warm thicknesses and deeper subsidence will overspread the region. Mostly clear skies remain on track through Tuesday save for a few stray clouds off the Caprock/immediately downstream of the upper ridge.
1021 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Deep low pressure will drift offshore through Tuesday.
19z surface analysis had low over southern MB with trailing trough into western NE.
754 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Upper low pushes to the northeast into this week with moisture wrapping around it and a cold front pushing through the area through midweek. Little change in the synoptic pattern overnight as the Rex Block over the eastern US will remain in place and the upper low will remain near the NC Outer Banks. Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer as well with low 60s across the forecast area. Temperatures will continue to moderate into Tuesday as the upper low continues to push slowly northeast. Highs will be a few degrees warmer with most of the area seeing highs in the low to mid 80s. Moisture will wrap around low pressure and push back into the area by Tuesday afternoon with a cold front moving into the area from the NE, providing some forcing.
1033 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Strong and persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.
Temperatures this evening linger in the lower 80s, and overnight lows will only fall into the middle 60s for northern counties and into the lower 70s in SWFL. Near average high temperatures (upper 80s to lower 90s) are expected through mid-week before a weak low pressure system moves in for the end of the week bringing cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances. Meanwhile, the upper level area of low pressure that has been responsible for the drier conditions that have been dominating over the area, should continue to gradually move east to northeast as high pressure builds during the next few days.
747 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 High pressure will build across the Northeast, the eastern Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley through the week, allowing temperatures to warm. Meanwhile, high pressure will extend across the eastern Great Lakes and the Northeast. Lows will range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. It will be warm with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Split mid-level flow in place to start the period, with a longwave ridge over the upper Midwest region.
Then ridging is expected to build in for Tuesday helping to warm the region a few degrees. High temperatures today are expected to largely remain in the mid 80s and a few degrees warmer tomorrow.
Most of the area will see fairly quiet conditions in place tonight as dry air and high pressure lingers.
953 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 High pressure will build across the Northeast, the eastern Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley through the week, allowing temperatures to warm. With the influx of some better LL moisture in from the S/SE this evening into the overnight, could see some patchy river valley fog develop, especially along the OH Rvr and for NE KY and the Lower Scioto Valley. Temps will be several degrees warmer than was the case this morning, with lows dipping into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees by daybreak. It will be warm with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Split mid-level flow in place to start the period, with a longwave ridge over the upper Midwest region.
As low pressure continues to meander to the south, offshore flow has continued to focus scattered showers over the interior, particularly the Yolla Bollys and along South Fork Ridge.
Overnight lows will remain mild, with temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 60s across the region.
831 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Inland ridging and coastal troughing develops through mid-week, persisting through late week. A weak front with offshore low pressure development may move through the area this weekend. Moisture will still be plentiful in the lower atmosphere, so clouds will stick around through the overnight hours. Lows in the lower 60s with calm to near-calm winds inland. Strengthening inland ridging and coastal troughing will bring an modest surge of NE winds, perhaps reflected as a weak backdoor cold front, crossing the area Tuesday. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible as well with modest lift enhancement from the broad upper low persisting over the Southeast. A mid level rex block continues over the US through early week, as upper low lingers over the Carolinas.
The lack of synoptic scale forcing until early Tuesday likely means we see storm coverage diminish overnight until the low level jet picks up through central Minnesota. Lapse rates, especially in the lower levels, will be quite steep and a few storms will likely end up producing at least some hail with the potential for severe. A lack of wind in the atmosphere means the only sort of strong winds with the storms will have to be purely based on the rate of precipitation and momentum, rather than prevailing lower level flow with the low level jet weakening during the day.
Dry weather and a warming trend is expected through the rest of the week under high pressure. High pressure will remain over the interior northeast overnight, keeping most of the region dry and clear. As the low pulls off the coast, precipitation chances will be null and clouds will clear after about 06Z Tuesday. High pressure is expected to retrograde across the northeastern CONUS through mid week, as the low that was over the Carolinas stalls just off the coast and weakens across the Mid Atlantic region.
702 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 A cut-off upper low over South Carolina will drift northeast to Cape Hatteras tonight, then off the east coast by Tuesday.
There have been some cirrus streaming in all day as a trough sits out across the central Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures have fallen to the upper 70s to near 80, except across Big Pine Key, where temperatures are already in the lower 70s.
749 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Warm, dry and mostly sunny weather expected through the week thanks to high pressure over the region.
627 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 (Remainder of today and tonight) Latest visible satellite data and regional ASOS/AWOS observations indicate that a broad plume of lower-level stratus clouds (to the west of a deep-layer cyclone currently located along the eastern border of NC-SC) has built back into the TN Valley from the northeast this afternoon. Overnight, the weakening upper low to our east will drift slowly east-northeastward in the vicinity of the Outer Banks of NC. At the surface, northerly winds will quickly become light/variable this evening as our CWFA will positioned along the southwestern edge of a high pressure cell building southeastward into New England.
512 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023 19z surface analysis had low over southern MB with trailing trough into western NE.
The first of our rain chances will be early tomorrow morning as storms firing along a trough in central Nebraska make their way east towards the state. This trough will lose steam as it gets closer to Iowa and will still have some dry air to overcome. The atmosphere is far from primed for severe weather, but with most of the updrafts being above the freezing level and decent instability in the hail growth zone, an isolated threat for hail is possible, especially if stones are able to overcome the dry sub- cloud layer. Isolated to scattered TSRA are possible after 12z Tue, however the low probability of occurrence at any terminal precludes mention in the TAF at this time.
As a couple of weather disturbances move across the Desert Southwest through the middle to latter half of the week, a cooling trend is anticipated with highs across most of the lower desert communities only topping out in the lower 90s. Meanwhile, further upstream a compact upper low is evident in water vapor imagery off the central California coast. With the increased meridional component to the flow, temperatures are somewhat lower than this time yesterday across southern California, while further east across central and eastern Arizona, warmer conditions prevail.
Low pressure could form across southern Florida near the end of the week and move northeast into the Atlantic over the weekend. Weak low pressure will remain near the Georgia coast through the night, while a very weak pressure pattern prevails elsewhere. Aloft we find a mid level low drifting east toward the North Carolina Outer Banks, part of the Rex Block where an anticyclone is near the eastern Great Lakes. The higher altitude inversion is will continue to produce scattered to broken altocumulus. Additionally, an upper low will remain offshore the Mid- Atlantic nearly vertically stacked with its weak surface inflection.
Temperatures continue to look to be on the below normal side over the next few days as continued troughing dampens any chance at warming up until the weekend.
Otherwise the region's current transition into a milder pattern will continue tonight as Indiana remains under the southwestern portions of a broad, stacked ridge that has built into southeastern Canada. This overall pattern, will include an embedded, weak trough that will cross into the region from the east tonight. Thus will cut back on model PoPs and go no higher than the low end of the chance category. Expect hot and mostly dry conditions through the period as upper ridging moves east and is centered across the region.
Continued high pressure influence will cause high temperatures to soar towards the upper 80s to low 90s by mid to late in the week. A Rex blocking pattern continues in the short term, with a mid level high pressure system centered over southern Ontario. Tomorrow, high temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s, just a few degrees warmer than today. As the mid level Rex blocking pattern weakens and shifts eastward, drier air at the low to mid levels will be replaced by better moisture. Southeasterly winds will advect more low level moisture into the CWA from a low pressure system centered off of the mid Atlantic coast.
630 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 (This evening through Tuesday Night) A weak upper level low is moving through Texas helping to spawn popup thunderstorms across the coast this morning. There will be a lull in the shower activity late tonight, but shower and thunderstorm activity returns tomorrow afternoon as a vort max slides in behind the low.
1019 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Warm, dry and mostly sunny weather expected through the week thanks to high pressure over the region.
732 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Deep low pressure will drift offshore through Tuesday.
937 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Warm, dry and mostly sunny weather expected through the week thanks to high pressure over the region.
Current dewpoints observed in the L/M60s indicate a drier air mass at the surface and in the lower levels. Movement of high pressure NE of the local waters will cause winds around 5-10 kts to veer N across the Volusia/N Brevard waters and E across the S Brevard/Treasure Coast waters.
628 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Warm, dry and mostly sunny weather expected through the week thanks to high pressure over the region.
9 PM temperatures were near a carbon copy of 24 hours ago, except over west TN, where temps were 2 to 3 degrees warmer.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) The upper low continues to track northeast this afternoon with a current placement near the SC/NC state line closer to the coast. Per latest GOES satellite imagery and the location of the upper low, SCT/BKN midlevel clouds are still hanging on across much of the state. This has allowed for cooler temperatures particularly across the NW part of the state with readings in the upper 60s to low 80s in areas with less cloud cover. NW winds will gradually diminish this evening as the low departs and pressure gradient weakens.
This evening through Monday Another afternoon of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected as the trough across the West Coast remains in place. Coverage should be less than the previous several days as slight ridging has now moved over the state. Moisture is also more modest today, with dewpoints expected to mix down into the low 40s or 30s for most locations by early afternoon.
For Tue-Wed, the upper low over S CA is forecast to slowly shift eastward towards the Four Corners area. Several weak perturbations will precede the primary upper low within weak zonal/SW flow, and just about any of these could serve as an impetus for iso-scat tstm development within environment of ample low level moisture and weak capping (H7 temps generally less than 10C). More coherent forcing will be possible late in the week and into the weekend as the aforementioned SW upper trough slides further E. However, model guidance generally weakens the trough as it does, so will probably still be looking at a really messy situation.
309 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 High pressure over the northeastern states will extend into the Ohio Valley through the week, with warm temperatures expected. As the upper low over the Carolinas drifts off the coast today, gradually weakening, the long-running Rex Block pattern will finally be on its way out. This will lead to southeasterly boundary layer flow, and dewpoints will increase by several degrees (getting into the lower 60s) by late morning. This means another day of boundary layer flow out of the southeast, mostly sunny conditions, and temperatures a degree or two warmer than Tuesday -- reaching the middle to upper 80s. Upper high extending from the eastern Great Lakes into New England at the beginning of the period will become more expansive as it retrogrades into the northern Plains by the weekend.
352 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 (Today through Wednesday) A quiet cool night with temps dropping into the mid 50s will give way to another cooler than normal day tomorrow with temps in the upper 70s and low 80s.
The warmer temperatures will steepen lapse rates today. Late tonight and Wednesday morning will be mainly dry as the ridge moves to the east. Flow aloft turns to the SW as an upper trough moves inland from the Pacific.
Honestly, though, the models are showing mixed signals, with some remaining dry, while the Highres Cams are all over the place on where and when the convection develops, so confidence in the details remains low, even just 12 hours in advance. With some morning cloud cover likely giving way to sunshine through the day, high temperatures should still reach the lower to mid 80s in the Missouri River valley region, and the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. SPC has placed the entire region in a marginal risk of severe storms with a 5% chance of gusty winds and hail, and that seems OK along and east of the Missouri River, but again, even confidence in a storm that might reach severe levels is on the lower side.
1158 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Afternoon surface analysis shows weak high pressure over the SE US, providing a light E to SE flow across the forecast area. Overnight, lows are expected to fall into the mid to upper 60s inland and into the low 70s along and south of I-10.
By Wednesday a more warm and moist air mass moves over the area thanks to a weak low pressure system, increasing rain chances everyday through the end of the week. PoPs will range widely north to south each day with southern areas favored for the higher PoPs.
Currently - Weak troughing that arcs from off the Carolina Coast, across the Bahamas and into western Cuba is resulting in light and varying breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Despite broad mid and upper level troughing taking shape in the Gulf of Mexico, last evenings sounding indicated considerable dry air through the lower and mid levels. High level moisture has increased and skies remain a mix of partly cloudy to cloudy due to sheaves of thick cirrus riding northeastward out of the gulf trough aloft. Forecast - The troughing aloft workings its way eastward through the Gulf of Mexico will be a large driver for Keys weather for the duration of the forecast.
915 PM PDT Mon May 29 2023 Our marine layer will deepen further through Wednesday, as low pressure moves over Southern California. The marine layer will thin into the coming weekend, ending the drizzle threat, and setting up much warmer days inland. Low pressure centered near Point Conception this evening, will be tracking SE across SoCal through Wednesday, building the marine layer further, along with the chance for more widespread light rain and drizzle.
(Today through Wednesday Night ) Strong high pressure centered toward New England will continue to slowly move away from Arkansas the next couple of days. On the western periphery of the high, a nearly stationary boundary will wash out with time.
120 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Warm, dry and mostly sunny weather expected through the week thanks to high pressure over the region.
Given dry conditions, diurnal ranges will be large and low temperatures should fall into the low 60s tonight, which is slightly below average for this time of year. Expect a warmer and wetter trend heading into the second half of the week.
127 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 A cut-off upper low over South Carolina will drift northeast to Cape Hatteras tonight, then off the east coast by Tuesday.
As we get into the overnight hours, the Rex blocking feature that resulted in the fairly stagnant weather pattern will largely dissipate and the upper ridge will have a chance to shift eastwards.
A large upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather over the Upper Mississippi Valley, leading to above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Key Messages: *Well above normal temperatures will continue through the upcoming weekend with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and comfortable humidity for this time of year *There are occasional chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms but most of the outlook area will likely stay dry Overview: Upper level omega blocking pattern is forecast to strengthen this week and persist through the upcoming weekend, leading to hot and mostly dry conditions.
A trough digging over the Pacific Northwest coast today will cause enough instability for more thunderstorms.
Active weather will continue through the extended periods as an omega block like pattern continues to influence the region, with ridge center slowly retrograding back over the area.
Mostly clear skies over the UP and warm southerly flow across all levels will let highs soar into the mid 80s over the west half, though the eastern UP will be limited by flow off a cooler Lake Michigan. With medium range and ensemble packages suggesting the continued presence of a mid-level ridge over the Upper Great Lakes for a majority of this forecast period, its no surprise that the end result will be above normal temperatures and below normal precip.
----------------------------------------------------------------- THIS MORNING: Convection continues to wane this morning as upper troughing moves to the east and the LLJ also veers back to the west. TODAY: Broad mid-lvl subsidence should move in this morning, behind the departing trough.
307 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Heat builds through the week with isolated/scattered afternoon convection, mainly in the higher terrain. As the high clouds have largely cleared from the area, low stratus and fog are taking hold in the southern part of WV and SW VA. A combination of sunshine and increasing E-SE'ly downsloping breezes should help to scour out most of the low stratus and fog by mid- morning. The best chances will remain in the higher terrain along the southeastern border of the CWA, mainly from around Snowshoe down to our SW VA counties. Mountain highs will range from low to mid-70s at around 2500ft to only the low to mid-60s on the highest peaks.
An upper level trough will begin to form over the Gulf of Mexico today, but its impacts over the area will not be felt until later this week.
305 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Dry weather and a warming trend is expected through the rest of the week under high pressure.
243 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Deep low pressure will drift offshore through Tuesday.
(Today and tonight) One more day of mostly dry weather as we're caught between two areas of upper level troughing.
Most of the area will see fairly quiet conditions in place tonight as dry air and high pressure lingers. There may be some weak upper-level ridging in place, but nothing extreme expected. An Omega blocking pattern is expected to set up across the CONUS into the weekend. Troughing will be in place over the southeast and southwest CONUS with ridging between the two.
19z surface analysis had low over southern MB with trailing trough into western NE. Tuesday/Wednesday, upper ridge builds northwest into the northern plains in response to upper trough moving from CA to the four corners region.
132 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Strong and persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.