Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
326 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure will extend across the region tonight into Tuesday.
Much warmer temperatures are expected by midweek with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected late week.
231 PM MDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Afternoon Update (2030Z): The expected snowfall for the approaching trough off the west coast continues to seemingly shift to the south and east. Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: The main forecast concern is the areas of freezing fog this morning, related to its severity and evolution. A deck of low clouds has slowly progressed westward from North Dakota early this morning, as a weak backdoor cold front pushes through with light easterly surface winds. This is reducing visibility along with areas of freezing fog. Thus, decided to go with areas of freezing fog slowly diminishing this morning, but closely monitoring if it gets more dense and persistent.
The high currently centered over east central Mississippi will push east overnight.
Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for many mountain areas and will keep going as surface cold front moves through eastern Idaho and after sunset many temperatures will drop to below freezing and may again see some collection on roadways after most have cleared up today.
Given an eastward moving low pressure system, there is the possibility for showers even a rumble of thunder tonight into the morning hours.
Another night with widespread freezing temperatures. Discussion: Clear skies above as high pressure has dominated the region this afternoon. However, we have not quite escaped the freezing temperatures quite yet as there remains one more night with a freeze warning in effect. Rising 500mb heights and increasing southerly flow Tuesday will kick the warming trend into gear as afternoon temperatures reach near to just slightly below normal - about 10 or so degrees warmer than Monday.
Combined with subsidence from the high pressure ridge, this will keep the area dry.
Recent observations suggest that most places have reached near freezing or higher so have allowed this mornings freeze warning to expire as planned. Light winds, sunny skies, and low relative humidities will be the theme this afternoon among high pressure atop the region. Discussion: Temperatures are below freezing across the area at the moment and the current freeze warning continues until 11 AM EDT.
This will lead to one more night of near freezing temperatures for portions of the forecast area and a Freeze Warning is in effect again tonight.
519 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Delmarva Coast to the Lower Mississippi Valley will provide dry, sunny weather and warmer temperatures for the first half of this week.
919 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Delmarva Coast to the Lower Mississippi Valley will provide dry, sunny weather and warmer temperatures for the first half of this week.
522 PM MDT Mon Mar 20 2023 20Z upper level analysis has weak ridging across the Northern Plains, with strong upper low moving into southwest Idaho. At the surface, cool Canadian high pressure resides across the north central CONUS. Temperatures at 2pm across the forecast area are in the 20s and 30s, with slightly warmer temperatures across northeastern Wyoming and the far southwest corner of SD. Winds are out of the east to southeast, breezy in warmer areas.
756 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Chilly high pressure builds in tonight, moving offshore Tuesday allowing for slightly milder temperatures. May be thick enough toward morning to offset a bit of the cooling, but overall temps set to drop below freezing and places should see some frost, including closer to the coast. Cloud cover is eroding from the west and will continue to do so as dry and chilly high pressure builds in from the north-northwest even as warm air starts to advect over the boundary layer. Highs Tuesday much warmer but still a little shy of climo, and with the overnight warm advection temperatures should rise rather quickly in the morning as soon as mixing ensues.
Currently - In wake of the recent cold front passage, relatively cool and dry conditions continue across the Keys. This is being sustained by a strong high pressure system centered over the mid Atlantic states. High pressure centered over the mid Atlantic states, along with the eroding effects of South Florida day time heating, will let winds increase modestly across all Keys waters through the overnight period.
752 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions and seasonable temperature to start the work week.
955 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Update The low temperatures tonight were raised slightly based on the trends.
748 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure overhead shifts east Tuesday.
309 PM MDT Mon Mar 20 2023 20Z upper level analysis has weak ridging across the Northern Plains, with strong upper low moving into southwest Idaho. At the surface, cool Canadian high pressure resides across the north central CONUS. Temperatures at 2pm across the forecast area are in the 20s and 30s, with slightly warmer temperatures across northeastern Wyoming and the far southwest corner of SD. Winds are out of the east to southeast, breezy in warmer areas.
938 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure will extend across the region tonight into Tuesday.
High pressure at the sfc is also beginning to move eastward towards the mid/southern Atlantic states. Current temps in the lower 40s/near 40F will fall well into the upper 20s/near 30F late tonight, especially with dew pts in the mid 20s/near 20F.
(This evening through Tuesday) A gradual warming trend is underway, but overnight temperatures are still expected to be below freezing for the majority of North Georgia and portions of Central Georgia warranting another Freeze Warning overnight north of the Columbus and Macon areas. A Frost Advisory has been issued for counties elsewhere in the warning area with some potential for freezing conditions but not enough confidence to include in the Warning at this time.
A few showers will linger across Western Washington into early Tuesday as a broad upper trough remains over the region.
Key Messages: * Cooler with rain chances on Tuesday.
1052 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Delmarva Coast to the Lower Mississippi Valley will provide dry, sunny weather and warmer temperatures for the first half of this week.
925 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Delmarva Coast to the Lower Mississippi Valley will provide dry, sunny weather and warmer temperatures for the first half of this week.
719 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure will extend across the region tonight into Tuesday.
547 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions and seasonable temperature to start the work week.
A south to southeast breeze around 15-25mph overnight due to leeside troughing near the Colorado state line coupled with a lack of an inversion due to the scattered cloud cover. A weak low will develop along the aforementioned leeside trough and move northeast through the CWA throughout the day Tuesday that will weaken the gradient and turn winds southwesterly by sunrise and west northwesterly by late morning around 10-15 mph.
115 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Aviation The low temperatures tonight were raised slightly based on the trends.
Quiet weather conditions continue as high pressure remains in control.
237 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 High pressure will be centered over the area today, gradually sliding off the coast tonight.
131 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Chilly high pressure builds in tonight, moving offshore Tuesday allowing for slightly milder temperatures. May be thick enough toward morning to offset a bit of the cooling, but overall temps set to drop below freezing and places should see some frost, including closer to the coast. Cloud cover is eroding from the west and will continue to do so as dry and chilly high pressure builds in from the north-northwest even as warm air starts to advect over the boundary layer. Highs Tuesday much warmer but still a little shy of climo, and with the overnight warm advection temperatures should rise rather quickly in the morning as soon as mixing ensues.
326 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 High pressure shifts east today.
352 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Key Messages: 1) A fast-moving upper low will bring moderate to heavy snow to the area this afternoon through the early overnight hours. An upper low will traverse the region late this afternoon and evening, bringing moderate to heavy snowfall.
High temperatures are slated to be several degrees warmer compared to yesterday with readings in the upper 60s to low 70s.
When looking at the SPC Mesoanalysis page, high pressure was located over much of the eastern United States with the center located near the TN/GA/NC/SC border. This high extended to the south keeping much of the Florida Peninsula clear with the southern flank of it just touching the Florida Keys. For today, while high pressure is mainly in control, the convergence boundary mentioned above will keep the threat of isolated showers eerily close to the Island Chain.
Warmer conditions are expected across the Midsouth for the remainder of the work week and over the weekend.
The trough will remain over the area tonight keeping skies mostly cloudy.
108 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 High pressure will extend across the region tonight into Tuesday.
At onset this morning, weak warm advection and kinematic support from an elongated MO Valley trough continues to generate various levels of mid and high level cloudiness across Iowa but with no precipitation as of yet.
A strong upper level low currently off the west coast will begin to make its way into central California later this evening, progressing eastward over the next few days. 75 inches, with the higher end of that range over south central Missouri. With overcast skies and showers throughout the day, afternoon highs will likely remain in the 40s over the eastern Ozarks, and the low to mid 50s over SW Missouri and SE Kansas. The next area of focus will be towards the late week system as the aforementioned upper level low makes its way towards the central CONUS through the end of the week.
152 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions and seasonable temperature to start the work week.
1044 PM MDT Mon Mar 20 2023 20Z upper level analysis has weak ridging across the Northern Plains, with strong upper low moving into southwest Idaho. At the surface, cool Canadian high pressure resides across the north central CONUS. Temperatures at 2pm across the forecast area are in the 20s and 30s, with slightly warmer temperatures across northeastern Wyoming and the far southwest corner of SD. Winds are out of the east to southeast, breezy in warmer areas.
115 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 High pressure overhead shifts east Tuesday.
Evening water vapor satellite imagery showing a well defined upper low over s-central Idaho this evening. A shield on the backside of the low that extends from SE Oregon into central Idaho will gradually shift eastward tonight as the low moves into eastern Idaho.
-Enriquez Afternoon Update (2030Z): The expected snowfall for the approaching trough off the west coast continues to seemingly shift to the south and east. Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: The main forecast concern is the areas of freezing fog this morning, related to its severity and evolution. A deck of low clouds has slowly progressed westward from North Dakota early this morning, as a weak backdoor cold front pushes through with light easterly surface winds. This is reducing visibility along with areas of freezing fog. Thus, decided to go with areas of freezing fog slowly diminishing this morning, but closely monitoring if it gets more dense and persistent.
347 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Key Messages: -The latest HREF and in general, the model consensus, suggests a slight north shift in the predicted light freezing rain and snow today.
Winds should diminish after sunrise as the trough moves eastward and the gradient relaxes. Surface winds should quickly shift to become more southwesterly after sunrise this morning, which should advect some drier air in at the low-levels. By this afternoon, the warmer airmass along with mostly sunny skies should result in high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80. Given the warmer airmass in place, along with the expected cloud cover, low temperatures should only fall into the upper 50s to near 60 range tonight.
219 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Temperatures have dropped into the lower to middle 20s on the colder valley floors under clear to mostly clear skies, yet thermometers remain in the mid to upper 30s over the warmer ridges. Expect weak warm air advection to keep ridgetops much milder than the the valley floors through the remainder of the night. Still expecting lows ranging from the upper teens in the colder valleys to the lower 30s on most thermal belt ridges. Sensible weather features another cold night as temperatures drop into the upper teens to mid 20s in our typically colder valley locations and to around 30 on the ridges. A broad area of isentropic lift will develop over the Lower Ohio, mid Mississippi valley by Tuesday which then spreads eastward into eastern Kentucky Tuesday night.
Temperatures will continue to trend warmer, with highs in the upper 60s and 70s on Tuesday.
Moisture transport occurring southeast of this cyclone will result in PW increasing to around 0. However, some wet snow or perhaps light freezing rain are possible near/north of Mt Pleasant prior to daybreak Wed. Initial cyclogenesis is expected to occur on Thu night along a baroclinic zone across the Southern Plains in advance of an approaching mid/upper trough. These winds will strengthen tonight as an area of low pressure reaches northern MN by Wed morning.
Partial clearing may bring highs up a degree or two from yesterday, with highs in the 50s for the plains/urban corridor and 20s and 30s for the high country. This will increase snow showers over the high country overnight into early Wednesday. There will be strong west winds across areas south of Denver and Limon in the morning, with a shift to the northwest across all of the plains as cooler air rushes in during the afternoon.
It will also usher in much cooler temperatures Wednesday into the weekend. The high elevations of the White mountains will be closer to the focus of heavier precipitation and should see up to a foot of new snow through this event above about 8-8500 feet.
538 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Mid Atlantic region through the SE U.
Rain and snow will affect the Northland today as a low pressure system moves through the area.
Generally looking at the generally the northern third of the area for a slight chance of rain through midday Wednesday, then drying by the afternoon as the warm front lifts away from the area. Highs will be another 10 degrees warmer with even some near 80 degrees in the south.
1002 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Dry high pressure atop the region today will give way to small shower chances on Wednesday.
High temperatures are slated to be several degrees warmer compared to yesterday with readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. High pressure continues to build over the region leading to decreasing winds and seas.
631 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Key Messages: 1) A fast-moving upper low will bring moderate to heavy snow to the area this afternoon through the early overnight hours. An upper low will traverse the region late this afternoon and evening, bringing moderate to heavy snowfall. By midday, expected mostly cloudy skies and temperatures holding in the 20s for most areas, and in the low 30s for northwest Minnesota.
A strong area of low pressure to the south of the area will bring clouds and some light rain and breezy winds this afternoon and evening to mainly Mendocino and Lake counties.
Significant snow accumulations are likely above 7000 feet with flooding likely at the lower elevations, but especially south of Flagstaff.
Cool, northeasterly air originating from high pressure centered in the Mid-Atlantic moving over the relatively warmer sea surface temperatures has resulted in a large area of stratocumulus cloud cover, especially in the coastal waters along and west of the Lower Keys. Should cloud cover be a little more stubborn, especially near Key West, highs may be a couple of degrees cooler than current suggests. From synopsis, high pressure over the eastern United States will continue sliding eastward, emerging into the western North Atlantic by tonight.
954 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Mid Atlantic region through the SE U.
613 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Mid Atlantic region through the SE U.
Satellite imagery shows cloud enhancement taking place just offshore as the cold deep closed low approaches central California. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as the cold upper low moves over the Bay Area. Cool and unsettled weather will linger Wednesday as the low drifts into central California.
Today a low pressure system spinning over eastern Idaho will progress out of the region to the east leaving a cutoff low far to the south that will only affect the southern portions of Lemhi County Wednesday. Beyond that, the region remains under the influence of a broad region of troughing with embedded weather systems moving through.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) Top of the hour readings are still coolish in the low to mid 50s, but the S/SE winds are ramping up and will bring a warmer afternoon, so no changes to afternoon highs with this update.
Temperatures this afternoon will range from the low to mid 50s in the eastern CWA to the mid 60s in central KS. Atmospheric models are in pretty good agreement on a warm front setting up near I-70 tomorrow afternoon. Noticeably cooler temperatures are expected north of the boundary in northern KS.
(Today through Wednesday) Today zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will result in a warm dry sunny day. High temperatures today will be in the 60s area wide and then warmer on Wednesday -- 70s to low 80s.
Cooler, drier air has settled across the region with temperatures dipping into the 50s across portions of South Florida. At the upper levels, heights will begin to rise as upper level high pressure starts to build into the Gulf. Plenty of sunshine expected today with warmer temps expected as the low level flow becomes more easterly throughout the day. The clear skies will continue tonight, with temps warmer than this morning but still comfortable.
1039 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 High pressure shifts east today. Increased moisture along a warm front will bring clouds to the area Wednesday with a chance of light rain.
The cloudy skies should limit afternoon highs to the 60s across the Hill Country into the lower 70s elsewhere. The cloudy skies continues through tonight into Wednesday morning with the warm and humid conditions where overnight lows are to only drop into the low to mid 60s area wide. Wednesday should trend warmer with greater clearing, especially across the western half of the region, as the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly as upper level troughing moves into California and ridging establishes over the Gulf of Mexico.
625 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Warmer conditions are expected across the Midsouth for the remainder of the work week and over the weekend.
645 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 High pressure shifts east today. Increased moisture along a warm front will bring clouds to the area Wednesday with a chance of light rain.
A band of light precipitation will form in advance of a cold front and track east through the night. Trends are warmer area wide with the low tracking a little farther northwest than yesterday. There may be a small zone of mixed precipitation depending on boundary layer temperatures near freezing and a small elevated warm layer aloft.
Otherwise, in addition to the moisture advection, look for the beginnings of warm air advection as high temperatures warm up into the mid and upper-50's, and with the aid of increased cloud cover, low temperatures will finally stay above freezing tonight.
541 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night ) Warmer conditions are ongoing across the area early this Tue morning compared to the past 2-3 nights. There will be some lingering precip potential overnight tonight as a warm front lifts north. with persistent SRLY flow allowing for much warmer conditions across the state.
Flattening of the upper ridge will support ewd advection of upper level clouds during the afternoon.
Otherwise, high clouds will be increasing today as a closed low moves into northern and central California. But, showers and snow showers wrapping around the northern edge of the trough will become likely in southern portions of Siskiyou and Modoc counties this afternoon with a snow level around 4500 feet. A weak trough will move east-southeast into the area Wednesday into Wednesday evening with an increasing probability of light showers and snow showers with snow levels near 4500 feet and up to an inch of snow.
1100 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 High pressure will move east of the region today, with a mid level disturbance moving eastward into the area tonight, bringing a chance of rain.
QPF won't be particularly heavy, but diabatic cooling and lack of insolation will keep temperatures a bit cooler than previously forecast. MJ Warmer conditions are expected across the Midsouth for the remainder of the work week and over the weekend.
While southwest Iowa will miss out on rain, the increased moisture and cooler temperatures will allow for patchy fog development into Wednesday morning. While southern Iowa is on the warm side of the system, parts of northern Iowa will be cooler and experience a wintry mix.
Temperatures will only drop off into the lower 40s in most locations due to the increase in cloud cover. Going into Wednesday night, as low pressure approaches, expect additional precipitation chances especially focused across northern portions of the region closer to the frontal boundary.
Some indication that a period of fog may form ahead of an incoming cold front tonight. Behind the cold front, west to northwest winds may gust toward 20-25 mph at times, perhaps a bit higher along the Buffalo Ridge.
1218 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night ) Warmer conditions are ongoing across the area early this Tue morning compared to the past 2-3 nights. There will be some lingering precip potential overnight tonight as a warm front lifts north. with persistent SRLY flow allowing for much warmer conditions across the state.
Associated warm front is expected to lift north towards the I-70 corridor.
A band of light precipitation will form in advance of a cold front and track east through the night. Trends are warmer area wide with the low tracking a little farther northwest than yesterday. There may be a small zone of mixed precipitation depending on boundary layer temperatures near freezing and a small elevated warm layer aloft. Have opted stay with VFR cigs through this afternoon at nearly all terminals (except AXN) as CAMs are struggling to realize the higher observed clouds. Rain will start across western MN early this evening (with a rain/snow mix and freezing rain likely in AXN) and progress eastward reaching EAU after midnight. East-southeasterly winds will strengthen prior to a cold frontal passage tonight with gusts reaching 20-25 knots.
For areas further east, low stratus has lingered long enough that cooler (mid-60s) high temperatures are now expected.
Otherwise, snow has been light to moderate across central SD ahead of the main upper low. Will leave headlines alone for now, but if these stronger winds do materialize the winter weather advisory may need to be either extended in the Sisseton Hills and/or expanded farther south along the ridge line.
128 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023 Dry high pressure moves east and off the Carolina coast tonight and Wednesday as a warm front crosses Tennessee bringing small shower chances to the mountains and foothills on Wednesday.