Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1228 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (Today through Monday Night ) An upper trough over the Midwest extends into the Midsouth with an upper ridge over the west coast. The upper trough moves through the area today and tonight. The trough will weaken over the area Monday. As a cold front moves into the state, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon.
225 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Southwest winds today, along with weak warm advection aloft in response to the slowly approaching upper trough in Canada, has allowed for temperatures to rise into the 90s, though dewpoints have remained mostly static in the low to mid 60s thanks to now ample evapotranspiration. The stalled boundary is a concern, but this feature is under the lower shear portion of the state, while to the north with the higher shear environment aloft, low level flow out of the northeast will result in a more stable boundary layer and elevated convection.
With the upper trough and focus off to the east, we welcome the disorganization of pop-up storms for once.
A mid-level trough will keep keep enough moisture aloft to maintain partly cloudy conditions this afternoon becoming mostly cloudy overnight.
A cold front is very slowly moving through the Quad State, providing a line for storm development this afternoon and evening. Low pressure is located further north of the CWA and an upper trough is approaching, expected to move through this evening into tonight. Dry conditions are expected for Monday as the trough moves east of the Quad State. The cold front stalls just to the southeast, resulting in seasonable temperatures with highs near 90, while lows remain in the upper 60s to near 70. With the return of the frontal boundary, temperatures lift slightly with highs in the lower half of the 90s and heat index values peaking in the 95-100 range.
Later this afternoon, forecast soundings and the HREF ensemble mean show MUCAPES reaching 1500-2000 J/kg, but it's still unclear where the low level forcing will be located for storms to develop. Several of the CAMs suggest storms will re- develop along and east of the Blue Ridge with models hinting at weak low level convergence in this area. A trough will move through the OH Valley Monday, bringing with it a weak cold front. Temperatures will be a touch above normal during this period, with highs mostly in the 80s west of the Blue Ridge, and in the low 90s east. The opportunity for TSRA continues into Monday afternoon and evening, especially east of the Blue Ridge.
Near-term progs have this highly unstable environment translating eastward as we head further into the afternoon and evening hours, likely sustaining severe potential into the early overnight hours. For the day on Monday, influence from the upper trough will linger across the KY Bluegrass and southern IN, with greater low-level moisture continuing to promote mostly cloudy skies through the morning hours. As a result of increased cloud cover, temperatures should be a few degrees cooler in northern and eastern portions of the CWA. Highs on Monday should range from the low 80s in the northeast to the upper 80s across the southwest.
Have POPs across the area for later this afternoon and evening, with the highest chances south.
Forcing overall is quite modest with generally 10-20 knots of NW flow aloft, no LLJ and no Theta-E ridge to help focus moisture advection. Regardless, a window of likely PoPs presents itself early this evening across our NW counties with lesser chances south and east as the weak s/w trough drifts southeast. Monday morning looks quiet for most areas under weak subsidence following tonight's trough.
(This afternoon through Monday night) Upper level high pressure continues to hold some sway over our area. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening, mainly over the higher terrain, but any rain amounts will be on the lower side. Storms will slowly move eastward towards the lower elevations where conditions are less favorable for organized storm activity.
Otherwise, expect partly cloudy conditions with lows in the lower 70s.
Ridge of high pressure over southern California is suppling hot weather across our area with many places in the 90s this afternoon.
(The rest of today) A weak frontal boundary associated with the passing of the main mid level trough axis continues to drop southeastward this morning across the region. Any significant lift associated with the upper trough will stay mostly north and east of the forecast area today, limiting storm chances late this morning and into the afternoon.
Expect lows tonight to fall mainly into the lower 70s, with temperatures warming into the mid to upper 90s Monday afternoon.
1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (Today through Monday afternoon) The upper-level ridge remains centered over the southwestern US Sunday into Monday.
The upper trough and cold front will work with the instability building across central Indiana to produce numerous showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms. However, with the upper trough and cold front in the area, some rainfall will be around. With the front and rain, low temperatures will be cooler than last night's, with lows in the middle to upper 60s expected. The upper trough will still have some influence across the area on Monday, especially east. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s.
232 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Current water vapor imagery shows a wound up short wave trough moving across the Midwest. Instability associated with the cooler air aloft with this wave is producing widely scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two across parts of central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois. Farther south, more convection is firing along the actual cold front stretched out across southeast Missouri.
Temperatures will take a gradual step closer to normal with highs in the lower 90s much of this week.
929 AM MDT Sun Jul 2 2023 15z sfc analysis shows sfc trof has just about exited ern cwa, with west/nw sfc winds and clearing skies in its wake. Dwpt values across the sern part of the cwa cont to climb ahead of approaching trof/500hpa wave. 07z surface analysis had low over southern SK with trough into eastern WY. Disposition of Canadian upper low main forecast concern. This feature will push cold front into the CWA late tonight. Monday, upper low moves into central Canada with trough axis into the northern Rockies/plains.
Tonight, low temperatures in the low to mid 70s inland, upper 70s along the coast are expected, a bit of a downward trend with the drier band of air moving over the forecast area at the time of lowest temperatures, aiding in overnight cooling.
2) Warmer and drier for Monday. Warming and drying aloft and subsidence behind the passing wave will lead to an expected down day in convection, with mainly isolated high based showers and storms expected over and near the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon. Warming aloft and less expected convection to lead to temperatures warming to at and above seasonal levels, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s across the plains and mainly in the 60s to low 80s across the higher terrain.
(This evening through Monday) The positively tilted trough, currently centered near northwest Nebraska, tracks southeastward and reaches north/central KS by tomorrow morning. In fact, this boundary is forecast to gradually lift as a warm front through tomorrow night.
Probably the larger story for Monday will be the return of warmer temperatures, with highs building back to the upper 80s.
Upper level ridge has shifted slightly to the east as upper trough over mid Mississippi Valley moves east toward the Ohio Valley. Upper high will continue to weaken and shift to our south, as an upper trough moves into the Mid/lower Miss Valley and Midwest.
908 AM PDT Sun Jul 2 2023 High pressure aloft will maintain excessive heat inland through Monday, while a combo of sea breezes and periods of marine layer clouds and fog moderate the heat near the coast. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Today will likely be the hottest day of the warming trend for many locations, especially in the lower deserts. High pressure remains in place over the Southwestern US and will maintain Excessive Heat through tomorrow, after which the high will begin to subside and be replaced by a weak low pressure trough. However it will still be rather hot, with some desert locations still running 10 degrees warmer than seasonal normals on Monday.
A weak trough brings some cooling to near seasonal averages on the July 4th holiday and later in the week, with typical afternoon breezes. Today remains the best chance for highs reaching 100 degrees, still around 50% for Reno with 700 mb temps peaking near +16 C and improved mixing with a more typical zephyr breeze, although a slight cooling of ridge level temperatures later today could be a limiting factor.
There is decent mid level moisture associated with this trough and a good dry intrusion. Temperatures slightly warmer today (2-4 degrees of warming) as 700mb temperatures climb to around +14c over the Front Range. The later periods start out dry and pretty warm for Monday, then moisture returns as well as cooler temperatures for the rest of the week.
652 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (This evening through Monday) The positively tilted trough, currently centered near northwest Nebraska, tracks southeastward and reaches north/central KS by tomorrow morning. In fact, this boundary is forecast to gradually lift as a warm front through tomorrow night.
The heat will grow while ridging is in place and most temperatures the next few afternoons will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal.
An anti-cyclonic midlevel mesocyclone is being observed with the storm north of Mount Carmel, IL, moving toward Knox County. Although it resides just on the cool side of a boundary, it appears the anticyclonic mesocyclone may be aiding in the ingestion of more buoyant air up over the cold pool. The upper trough and cold front will work with the instability building across central Indiana to produce numerous showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms. However, with the upper trough and cold front in the area, some rainfall will be around. With the front and rain, low temperatures will be cooler than last night's, with lows in the middle to upper 60s expected. The upper trough will still have some influence across the area on Monday, especially east. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s.
506 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2023 The upper level trough to the north into Canada continues to extend a trough south to the Montana state line with any impacts north of the CWA today for the most part. Monday will see the trough deepen with increased divergence aloft as it pushes closer to the CWA as the associated cold front nears as well. Most of the activity looks to be east of the Divide ahead of the sheared mid level trough.
High pressure will build over Arizona, bringing the hottest temperatures of the year through the middle of this week. Satellite images this afternoon show decent cloud development across northern Arizona, mainly confined to the higher terrain. Temperatures range from the upper 80s to the low 100s across the area this afternoon.
615 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) Upper level high pressure continues to hold some sway over our area. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening, mainly over the higher terrain, but any rain amounts will be on the lower side. Storms will slowly move eastward towards the lower elevations where conditions are less favorable for organized storm activity.
Weak ridging will be in place across the waters for the next several days with light winds less than 10 knots, turning onshore near the coast each afternoon.
649 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Current water vapor imagery shows a wound up short wave trough moving across the Midwest. Instability associated with the cooler air aloft with this wave is producing widely scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two across parts of central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois. Farther south, more convection is firing along the actual cold front stretched out across southeast Missouri.
Hi-res models have us active later this evening around ~1Z or later where a broken line of convection will enter the area ahead of a cold front out to our west. The parent low associated with the cold front will keep moving east-northeast just north of us keeping chances for showers or storms on the table through the overnight. The activity will diminish by early morning then some wrap around flow from the low may get into our CWA around the northern periphery through the rest of the morning. Clouds will start to break up in the afternoon allowing for some sun to sneak through and maybe climb those temperatures slightly higher than what guidance provided, therefore elected to raise them a degree or two which equated to near mid 80's across the lowlands.
Despite the complexity to the upper cloud motions noted on water vapor imagery, mean-layer ridging remains entrenched across Florida and Cuba. The western extent of weak low-level ridging reaches across Florida and the northern Gulf Coast. The forecast calls for 20% chances overnight and lows in the lower 80s. Boaters should be mindful of the clearance below the lowest fixed bridges during the post sunrise high tides, which are running three quarters a foot above mean higher high water (normal high tide).
602 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Passage of a trough to our west under a warm, moist air mass will continue to stir showers and thunderstorms through tonight. Based off the latest GFS run, the depth of the freezing level to lift condensation level will exceed 13kft, which will produce efficient rainfall rates.
530 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Aviation Section Updated Temperatures will be on a downward trend early this week as cooler air pushes in from Canada.
Stronger forcing exists to our west ahead of a cold front, where showers and storms are ongoing across west TN and up through central and eastern KY.
1052 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Passage of a trough to our west under a warm, moist air mass will continue to stir showers and thunderstorms through tonight.
Otherwise, warmer and primary dry weather is expected on Monday. An afternoon lake breeze will result in cooler weather along the lakeshore areas.
Upper high will continue to weaken and shift to our south, as an upper trough moves into the Mid/lower Miss Valley and Midwest.
600 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) A weakness aloft will remain over the region through the short-term, splitting the upper level ridge over the southwest U. and sub- tropical ridge over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and Florida. During the remainder of the afternoon through sunset development of stray to isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible where this higher moisture pool is located through northern and southeastern areas of the CWA. The higher pool of 1. High temperatures tomorrow are forecast in the low 90s across the Hill Country and mid to upper 90s for most other locations.
815 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Some residual convection is occurring across northern portions of the area closer to the midlevel trough and where a small amount of diurnally driven instability remains. The upper trough and cold front will work with the instability building across central Indiana to produce numerous showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms. However, with the upper trough and cold front in the area, some rainfall will be around. With the front and rain, low temperatures will be cooler than last night's, with lows in the middle to upper 60s expected. The upper trough will still have some influence across the area on Monday, especially east. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s.
535 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Latest sfc analysis shows sfc trof has cleared all but far sern part of the CWA, with some agitated CU developing over the Black Hills. Sfc winds across the sern part of the CWA are beginning to turn more SW in direction in response to approaching sfc trof.
High pressure has brought another sunny and hot day to northwest CA. Monday an upper level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest is expected to bring slightly cooler air aloft.
605 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023 An anti-cyclonic midlevel mesocyclone is being observed with the storm north of Mount Carmel, IL, moving toward Knox County. Although it resides just on the cool side of a boundary, it appears the anticyclonic mesocyclone may be aiding in the ingestion of more buoyant air up over the cold pool. The upper trough and cold front will work with the instability building across central Indiana to produce numerous showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms. However, with the upper trough and cold front in the area, some rainfall will be around. With the front and rain, low temperatures will be cooler than last night's, with lows in the middle to upper 60s expected. The upper trough will still have some influence across the area on Monday, especially east. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s.
Despite the complexity to the upper cloud motions noted on water vapor imagery, mean-layer ridging remains entrenched across Florida and Cuba. The western extent of weak low-level ridging reaches across Florida and the northern Gulf Coast. The forecast calls for 20% chances overnight and lows in the lower 80s.
Southwest winds today, along with weak warm advection aloft in response to the slowly approaching upper trough in Canada, has allowed for temperatures to rise into the 90s, though dewpoints have remained mostly static in the low to mid 60s thanks to now ample evapotranspiration. The stalled boundary is a concern, but this feature is under the lower shear portion of the state, while to the north with the higher shear environment aloft, low level flow out of the northeast will result in a more stable boundary layer and elevated convection.
The main driver for the showers and storms across the southern half of the forecast area this afternoon is an area of low pressure at the sfc and aloft at the southern end of Lake Michigan. This is likely due to the very moist lower levels combining with the cooler air aloft and forcing with the low. The highest potential for localized flooding would be across the SW corner of the area where the low might move to before opening up. Once the fog lifts and dissipates by Monday afternoon, things should be much quieter tomorrow afternoon with upper ridging building in behind the low from today. We should see troughing strengthen inland Mon afternoon as a weakness between the two mesoscale ridges over the lakes.
Thunderstorms were lighting up along or just ahead of a cold front in northwest into southwest TN although it was less continuous further southwest.
632 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (This evening through Monday night) Tonight through Monday night, the upper level ridge starts to break down over the area and a boundary sets up. For tomorrow, not expecting severe weather given the low shear and lack of forcing. Thanks to the increased rain chances for tomorrow and greater chance of cloud cover too, this should finally keep the heat at bay! Conditions tomorrow are finally going to be trending down with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s with heat index values between 100 and 105 expected for the most part across the area.
Expect the remainder of the night to be cool with lows in the low to mid 70s. Outside of any storms development, the remainder of the day will be war m with highs in the low to mid 90s. Temperatures will take a gradual step closer to normal with highs in the lower 90s much of this week.
734 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Temperatures will be on a downward trend early this week as cooler air pushes in from Canada.
646 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 (The rest of this afternoon and tonight) Cold front has pushed into southeast Oklahoma, extending into west-central Arkansas, currently near a Talihina, Fort Smith line. Still the potential for a few isolated showers/thunderstorms to develop across far southeast Oklahoma in the higher terrain, however overall coverage will likely remain limited at best.
One is ahead of a cold front, now moving into northwest sections of the state. The previously mentioned front will stall across southern sections of the state by early Monday, then will move north as a warm front, while becoming diffuse.
- Strong and possibly severe thunderstorms expected Tuesday afternoon and night as a cold front move into the region.
Will stay on the warmer side of guidance for afternoon highs.
Some high-resolution models are showing an increase in clouds and potential for high-based shower development Monday morning as an approaching trough interacts with moisture aloft (observed ~10kft MSL by KBOI weather balloon). A dry cold front will pass through the area on Tuesday during the Independence Day holiday.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) The upper-level ridge begins to slowly slide eastward towards the Southern Great Plains early this week. Today temperatures are expected to be a touch warmer for everyone as heights increase. In terms of precipitation, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected across the higher elevations and across Southeast New Mexico. Everyone can expect temperatures to be a couple degrees warmer than Monday.
Latest streamline analysis reveals an anticyclone off the California coast, resulting in a relatively dry northerly flow across the Desert Southwest. Temperatures are generally running a few degrees warmer than this time yesterday. High pressure will build eastward into Arizona Monday, yielding a continued warming trend. A cooling trend will commence Tuesday as a weak trough moves through the northern Rockies and the aforementioned high migrates eastward while weakening across the Desert Southwest.
Current temperatures are mostly a little cooler compared to 24 hours ago and are mainly in the 60s to lower 70s in the mountains, and in the 70s and 80s across the Central Valley.
Several weak disturbances will drop out of British Columbia through Tuesday leading to cooler and unsettled weather in western Montana.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge currently centered over the lower Colorado River valley will slowly edge east today resulting in minor height rises overhead.
326 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 After showers and scattered storms end early tonight, conditions will be mainly dry through Tuesday with temperatures becoming very warm on the 4th of July, Highs today will be in the lower 80s, warming to the upper 80s Tuesday.
226 AM MDT Mon Jul 3 2023 08z surface analysis had low near KSHR with cold front eastward along the SD/ND border into eastern ND. Cold front slips slowly southward this morning, bisecting the CWA by 18z. Attention then turns to upper trough dropping into the northern Rockies/plains. Today/tonight, upper trough drops into MT/WY with what looks like two embedded waves. Low will arrest the southward movement of the cold front, stalling just northeast/east of the Black Hills by early afternoon. As upper trough approaches, hodographs lengthen with 40kts 0-6km bulk shear forecast on cool side of boundary. Temperatures tricky today with potential for significantly lower temperatures north of the cold front. Tuesday, upper trough moves through the CWA with moist cyclonic flow and weak buoyancy.
Mid-level trough will slowly depart the region through the east while a weak surface cyclone over Indiana drags a diffuse baroclinic zone across central Kentucky this morning. Latest surface analysis depicts the diffuse baroclinic zone over western Kentucky while the surface cyclone meanders over northern Indiana. The post-storm environment over the forecast area is characterized by weak warm advection amid lingering southwesterly flow at the low levels and stability building near the surface, as indicated by ACARS soundings at SDF and LEX. The best chances for an isolated shower or storm will be focused over the Bluegrass, most likely influenced by convergence associated with the weak cyclone's circulation.