Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
GOES Water Vapor imagery this afternoon highlights a broad trough of low pressure across the western US. Within the broad trough, several small closed low circulations are present and are located off the western WA coast, in southern OR, and near the WY/UT/CO border. Given the long residence time of valley fog and stratus, areas of freezing drizzle and/or light snow are a concern.
This along with mostly clear skies has allowed temperatures to fall rapidly, especially across the higher terrain areas in the east. Increasing cloud cover and low-level winds in advance of our next storm system will keep relatively warmer lows across the west, and rain showers are still expected to develop around mid-day.
700 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 Dry conditions will continue tonight into Monday afternoon as high pressure shifts east of the area.
853 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure will build into the area tonight through Monday.
(Monday through Sunday) Any lingering showers should quickly shove east of the area on Monday morning as the mid level trough axis pushes north and east.
High pressure will continue to build in and settle across the area tonight. While freezing temperatures are not expected, widespread lows in the mid to upper 30s are forecast. Some normally colder spots northwest of I-4 and across rural locations south of Orlando may still reach near freezing, but this should be rather isolated. Along the barrier islands of east central Florida and coastal Martin County, lows will be a little higher in the low to mid 40s, and therefore frost is generally not expected.
659 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure moving in with clearing skies this afternoon and tonight.
A gradual warm up is anticipated through the week as high pressure builds over the Sunshine State. High pressure has weakened and will move through the region with marine conditions improving as the winds and seas diminish tonight into the first half of the week.
As a mid/upper ridge axis cross the area, scattered to broken high clouds will increase over the next few hours, but should have little impact to the falling temperatures, which should bottom out in the 20s in most spots. Another fair and cold night with lows below freezing. Discussion: An upper level ridge is building over the eastern Tennessee Valley today and is finally helping to warm temperatures this afternoon. Over the next 24 hours low pressure develops over the central Great Plans and moisture builds through the lower Mississippi Valley with increased moisture in the form of clouds and rain spreading into the western Tennessee Valley Monday morning. A warm front will move into Tennessee by tomorrow evening.
549 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023 (Tonight) High pressure continues to linger across the Southeast resulting in a seasonable winter day.
955 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High cirrus has continued to increase in coverage across Indiana this evening ahead of an approaching trough. While this will generally be focused west of Indiana until Monday morning, sloping/ascending moisture from the upstream trough will bring increasing high and eventually mid level clouds through tonight and early Monday.
221 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2023 AFTERNOON UPDATE: Freezing fog has remained dense across most of the advisory area with convective short-term models generally holding it in place with some expansion to the south through Monday morning. A slight chance for snow and freezing rain continues to exist across mainly Phillips and Petroleum counties tomorrow into tomorrow night, but the system looks to deposit much of its moisture to the south and over higher terrain. Freezing fog continues to linger across the area with dense fog largely staying north of the Missouri River. Redevelopment of freezing fog Sunday night into Monday morning looks very likely with the latest model guidance.
932 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure moves off to the east tonight and tomorrow.
Discussion: We'll start out this morning with temperatures below freezing across the area, with the last night of sub-freezing temperatures expected until the end of the week. However we'll still warm up back to above normal temperatures this afternoon as mid level ridging and surface winds out of the south help to warm up the atmosphere.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s over northwest AL, where WAA becomes more of an influence to upper 20s across the higher terrain in northeast AL.
High cirrus has continued to increase in coverage across Indiana this evening ahead of an approaching trough. While this will generally be focused west of Indiana until Monday morning, sloping/ascending moisture from the upstream trough will bring increasing high and eventually mid level clouds through tonight and early Monday.
This will drag a cold front through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys late Monday through Tuesday morning. Rain will develop along and out ahead of the cold front, with rain spreading across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri by late tonight, and across west Kentucky and southwest Indiana by 18z Monday. The air mass behind the cold front will be quiet mild, and along with the sunshine, temperatures will remain significantly above normal, with highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s.
We have one more night of freezing temperatures and a good chance of frost before a warm up starts on Monday afternoon.
215 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 High pressure builds in tonight into Monday.
347 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Today we will start the day on the Western periphery of a weakening upper level ridge. As the day progresses the ridge will further weaken with zonal flow returning. Although the aforementioned storm system will stay well north of the area the trailing warm front and cold front will provide lift sufficient enough to produce rain across the entire CWA late tonight into tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be even warmer and in the upper 60s and 70s.
1153 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023 High pressure provides dry weather Monday.
Currently, temperatures along the island chain range from the low to mid 50s. Still, calm winds and drainage from the Florida Peninsula and significant radiational cooling will result in temperatures plummeting to the mid 40s to low 50s in the Middle and Upper Keys and upper 40s to low 50s in the Lower Keys. For the rest of the week, temperatures are forecast to become near normal as the longwave trough pushes into the Atlantic waters and a mid-level ridge centered near Nicaragua and Honduras shifts to the northeast.
Lows over the interior will generally drop into the mid 30s, although portions of Glades County may experience freezing temperatures and thus a Freeze Warning remains in effect here. Lows will creep up into the low/upper 40s for northern/southern portions of the CFWA. Afternoon high temperatures today will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, although still remaining seasonably cooler. Overall, today will remain dry and cooler than usual. By Tuesday, upper level (H500) ridging becomes re-established, while remnants of a weak low-level high pressure center drift eastward. This will allow for winds to veer out of the south/southeast, ushering in a warmer airmass.
1252 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 High pressure moves off to the east tonight and tomorrow. Low pressure will move east across the Great Lakes region, bringing a warm front across the area early Tuesday morning, quickly followed by a cold front Tuesday evening.
305 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain returns tonight and Tuesday with a crossing cold front.
(This afternoon through Monday) 500mb ridging will begin to break down late tomorrow as as an upper low moves across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure ridge remains in place through most of Monday. However, the ridge should begin to move offshore late Monday as a cold front approaches from the west.
Low pressure, over the Ern Rockies, is fcst to lift NEwd towards the Great Lakes region over the next 48 hrs.
(Today and tonight) With upper low winding up tight across Kansas and moving rapidly northeast today, a dryline and weak pacific front will progress eastward over the region. In fact, with the westerly downslope component and less cloud cover playing their roles, some areas will be warmer today with portions of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas forecasted to be just a few degrees cooler than their record highs. With the drier air and less wind, cooler overnight lows expected tonight.
206 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 High pressure provides dry weather Monday.
327 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 High pressure will move into the region briefly today before a weak system moves into the region by Tuesday with some light precipitation.
Moisture advection in that flow, on the van of deepening, closed low pressure across the central Plains, should also support an increase in cloud cover. By Tuesday; low pressure should undergo cyclolysis, and jet ascent and vorticity advection should become displaced east of the forecast area as dry slotting undercuts deep boundary layer moisture. Scattered rain showers remain possible Tuesday night as the flattening trough axis, and the associated surface cold front, cross the region.
No widespread precipitation is expected through Tuesday, as the weak north portion of the west coast trough moves inland. Most of the precipitation will stay south of our area, as the south portion of the trough, fed by jet stream energy, deepens as it crosses southern California and the southwest states.
(Today) High clouds continue to spread into the region from the west, as an upper trough axis lifts NE into the mid Plains states.
111 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 Dry conditions will continue tonight into Monday morning as high pressure shifts east of the area. Rain chances return late Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning as a cold front moves through the area.
602 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night) We start to enter a more active weather pattern starting today as an upper level trough moves eastward with an associated surface front forming at the surface.
212 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 The midlevel trough continues to pivot northeastward across the northern portion of the state this morning. The trough axis aligns along the northern WY border later this morning, focusing the remaining precip chances mainly for YNP and Johnson County.
We'll warm up this afternoon a few degree warmer than yesterday landing in the upper 50s. We'll see showers after lunch arriving in NW AL ahead of the warm front.
In southeast North Dakota, radar returns are moving into the state as the previously discussed upper low approaches. Slippery surfaces from freezing fog or isolated freezing drizzle are possible today as well. With North Dakota under the glancing blow of mid-level height falls, light snow or some freezing drizzle will be possible today under modest synoptic ascent. Light snow should initially develop from the James River Valley into central North Dakota today, with a period of freezing drizzle first as forecast soundings show slow saturation of the dendritic growth zone atop a well saturated lower level. Further north and west of these areas may see some periods of very light freezing drizzle today with no snow, being further removed from the better forcing, however this lack of forcing makes even the freezing drizzle coverage uncertain.
934 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 High pressure will give way to an approaching cold front Tuesday which will stall and give way to warmer conditions through mid week.
431 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 Satellite imagery showing a well defined low pressure circulation tracking east-northeast across Kansas. Weak ridging will move across Colorado today behind the exiting system and in advance of the next storm system. Even though ridging will occur today, there should be enough low level moisture over the mountains to produce light snowfall in places through tonight.
The short term will remain dry with much warmer than normal daytime temperatures. Highs on Tuesday should range from the 70s at the beaches to the low to mid 80s inland.
839 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain returns late tonight and continue into Tuesday with a crossing cold front.
614 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 High pressure across central Canada dipping into the northern plains with front draped over central Montana.
and Tuesday Low pressure moving from near Omaha at 12z today to Door County by 12z Tuesday will bring periods of rain and some mixed precipitation to the area today and tonight. The low levels will saturate as moisture increases from the south today with light rain or freezing rain beginning by daybreak in most areas. Surface temperatures will likely be at or below freezing this morning north of a Wausau to Wausaukee line, so a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for a mix of light freezing rain and snow there. The precipitation could change back to freezing rain tonight across the north depending on boundary layer temperatures, with periods of light rain elsewhere.
An associated lee cyclone will deepen over southeastern Colorado Tue aft/eve. potentially significant model-to-model and run-to-run variation is apt to persist with regard to the location, amount, and distribution of precipitation with this system -- which will *highly* depend upon the precise evolution of the upper wave and associated lee cyclone.
(Today through Tuesday) Today we will start the day on the Western periphery of a weakening upper level ridge. As the day progresses the ridge will further weaken with zonal flow returning. Although the aforementioned storm system will stay well north of the area the trailing warm front and cold front will provide lift sufficient enough to produce rain across the entire CWA late tonight into tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be even warmer and in the upper 60s and 70s.
While upper level height falls/ascent associated with the trough will be negligible for this area, strong low level warm advection will support increasing shower coverage through tonight resulting in light to moderate rainfall amounts. /EC/ A low pressure system lifting out of the Great Lakes Region will coincide with showers and storms moving southeast out of Mississippi by Tuesday morning.
540 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 High pressure provides dry weather Today.
518 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level short wave trough that brought yesterday's wind is deepening over Kansas and Nebraska early this morning and will lift northeastward through the day today. A broad upper level trough remains in place across the western half of the CONUS with a train of energy moving from west to east in zonal flow at the base of the longer wave trough from southern California to West Texas.
Slippery surfaces from freezing fog or isolated freezing drizzle are possible today as well. With North Dakota under the glancing blow of mid-level height falls, light snow or some freezing drizzle will be possible today under modest synoptic ascent. Light snow should initially develop from the James River Valley into central North Dakota today, with a period of freezing drizzle first as forecast soundings show slow saturation of the dendritic growth zone atop a well saturated lower level. Further north and west of these areas may see some periods of very light freezing drizzle today with no snow, being further removed from the better forcing, however this lack of forcing makes even the freezing drizzle coverage uncertain.
251 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 A storm system will result in periods of valley rain and mountain snow, breezy to windy conditions at times, along with much cooler temperatures the first half of the week.
This low will push inland later this morning allowing for things to slowly dry out throughout the day although lingering showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms could persist south of Monterey Bay through mid-afternoon.
707 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 We have one more night of freezing temperatures and a good chance of frost before a warm up starts on Monday afternoon.
439 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 The midlevel trough continues to pivot northeastward across the northern portion of the state this morning. The trough axis aligns along the northern WY border later this morning, focusing the remaining precip chances mainly for YNP and Johnson County.
As one low pressure system departs to our northeast and another begins moving in from the west, strong zonal flow aloft will dominate our sensible weather today and tonight. With the unsettled pattern and strong zonal flow, there is plenty of moisture around, especially over the higher terrain. High temperatures will be in the high-40s to mid- 50s over the plains and in the 30s over the higher valleys. Snowfall will be heaviest over the San Juan Mountains and adjacent areas, while lesser but still impactful amounts are expected over the Central Mountains and the Sangre de Cristos, mostly confined to the higher elevations.
An upper lvl trough will continue to lift into the Great Lakes region this afternoon. Highs will be similar to today or a few degrees warmer in some locations.
High pressure is in control for the day, but will begin to slide to the east by the afternoon. High clouds will increase in advance a warm front that will begin to move in this evening through the overnight hours. As the warm front clears by mid-afternoon Tuesday rain chances will drop, with most of the rain out of the southeast before sunset. Temperatures will drop off fairly quickly this evening, but will likely be a midnight, if not earlier low, with temperatures holding steady in the east and rising in the west with the approaching warm front.
530 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain returns tonight and Tuesday with a crossing cold front.
Areas of dense fog will be common, particularly along the Highway 93, Highway 12, and I-90 corridors.
A trailing cold front will become cutoff from the progressive low and struggle to make much progress south of I-30. A weak low-level trough translating east across an area with dewpoint values in the low to mid 60s ahead of the frontal boundary will support scattered showers across north Louisiana, deep east Texas, and south Arkansas later today. Overnight low temperatures forecast to range from the 40s across southeast Oklahoma to the lower 60s across north Louisiana.
637 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 High pressure will give way to an approaching cold front Tuesday which will stall and give way to warmer conditions through mid week.
A tight pressure gradient ahead of north-central KS deep low pressure will support stout/gusty south winds through early this morning over eastern KS, where a wind advisory remains in place until 9am.
(Today through Tuesday Night) We start to enter a more active weather pattern starting today as an upper level trough moves eastward with an associated surface front forming at the surface.
619 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain returns tonight and Tuesday with a crossing cold front.
(Today and tonight) The upper level short wave trough that brought yesterday's wind is deepening over Kansas and Nebraska early this morning and will lift northeastward through the day today. A broad upper level trough remains in place across the western half of the CONUS with a train of energy moving from west to east in zonal flow at the base of the longer wave trough from southern California to West Texas.
Significant snow accumulation resulting in hazardous travel conditions will continue to occur over the High Country above 5500 feet, with minor flooding possible in the lower elevations.
531 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure is in control for the day, but will begin to slide to the east by the afternoon. High clouds will increase in advance a warm front that will begin to move in this evening through the overnight hours. As the warm front clears by mid-afternoon Tuesday rain chances will drop, with most of the rain out of the southeast before sunset. Temperatures will drop off fairly quickly this evening, but will likely be a midnight, if not earlier low, with temperatures holding steady in the east and rising in the west with the approaching warm front.
559 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 (Today and tonight) With upper low winding up tight across Kansas and moving rapidly northeast today, a dryline and weak pacific front will progress eastward over the region. In fact, with the westerly downslope component and less cloud cover playing their roles, some areas will be warmer today with portions of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas forecasted to be just a few degrees cooler than their record highs. With the drier air and less wind, cooler overnight lows expected tonight.
915 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 Lots of areas reporting frost this morning but with high pressure overhead and plenty of sunshine expect the frost to disappear pretty quick. We have one more night of freezing temperatures and a good chance of frost before a warm up starts on Monday afternoon.
515 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 (Today) High clouds continue to spread into the region from the west, as an upper trough axis lifts NE into the mid Plains states.
901 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 High pressure centered overhead this morning will slowly drift to the east this afternoon. Highs will be a few degrees cooler along the Atlantic coast due to a light afternoon sea breeze.
317 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 Satellite imagery showing a well defined low pressure circulation tracking east-northeast across Kansas. Weak ridging will move across Colorado today behind the exiting system and in advance of the next storm system. Even though ridging will occur today, there should be enough low level moisture over the mountains to produce light snowfall in places through tonight.
SLightly cooler air is noted behind the boundary, but highs this afternoon are still well above normal for mid January with some locations in western Arkansas approaching record values for this time of year. Surface ridging will build in tonight, allowing winds to die down quickly after sunset. Clear and calm conditions should allow for a cooler night tonight with lows dipping back into the 30s and 40s across the region.
LGB (Today through Tuesday) Today we will start the day on the Western periphery of a weakening upper level ridge. As the day progresses the ridge will further weaken with zonal flow returning. Although the aforementioned storm system will stay well north of the area the trailing warm front and cold front will provide lift sufficient enough to produce rain across the entire CWA late tonight into tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be even warmer and in the upper 60s and 70s.
Tuesday a deep upper trough moves into New Mexico. The trough will bring a Pacific cold front Tuesday night shifting low rain chances east into the Permian Basin.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will spread west to east through this evening and increase in coverage becoming widespread (90%) overnight as the warm front arrives and a LLJ kicks in.
154 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Summary: Southwesterly flow aloft will keep weather active this week with two passing low pressure systems. This low track is well modeled to pass through Wisconsin into northern Michigan. This changes radically during the nocturnal hours where freezing rain and icy roads are more likely to occur as temperatures hover in the upper 20s to low 30s. This may need to be extended westward depending on radar and temperature trends, but for the moment the highest confidence is in those mentioned counties where cold air aloft arrival from the northwest is delayed until midday Tuesday.
248 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 18Z surface data has low pressure between KBNW and KPRO. An occluded front runs east southeast to between KTNU and KPEA with the warm front continuing into central Illinois. The cold front runs south from the occluded front into central Missouri. high confidence High pressure will exit the area as southerly flow ahead of the mid- week system develops.
1240 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 High pressure centered overhead this morning will slowly drift to the east this afternoon. Highs will be a few degrees cooler along the Atlantic coast due to a light afternoon sea breeze.