Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
626 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Today through Saturday Night ) An upper level ridge is over the eastern U. this morning with a large upper low over the Plains. The upper ridge will move to the east coast this afternoon as the upper low moves east. The upper low moves to the eastern Great Lakes by late Saturday. Highs today and Friday will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s and cooler on Saturday in the upper 50s to lower 70s.
An upper low is currently moving across the Central to Northern Great Plains with an associated cold front currently located just south of the Texas panhandle. The exception may be across the Rio Grande Plains where showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning early evening through early Saturday morning, although the majority of activity is expected to stay over the higher terrain in Mexico. As for temperatures Friday, highs in the upper 80s and 90s are expected during the afternoon before cooler and drier air moves in during the evening and overnight hours. Highs Saturday will be roughly 10 degrees cooler than those on Friday, mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Key Messages: * Strong winds blowing all day long * Much colder today * Light freeze possible Saturday morning along Colorado border A sfc cyclone is located across Nebraska early this morning. This low is about 994 hPa. Have the highest confidence of the strong winds from Scott City, Garden City and possibly extending southeast towards Dodge City. Otherwise, will keep the High Wind Warning as is.
530 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Today through Saturday) The most significant event during this portion of the total forecast will be the passage of a cold front at, or a couple of hours before, sunrise Saturday. Some additional convection is also possible over portions of the lower Texas coastal waters.
but think anything will hold off until later tonight when the cold front begins to move through. As we go throughout the day today, southerly winds may pick up slightly ahead of an approaching cold front. Diminishing showers ahead of the cold front will move through the area overnight tonight into Friday morning, but precip amounts continue to look very light with only a few hundredths of an inch expected.
551 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 High pressure over the central Appalachians will allow for dry conditions today. A large low pressure system over the central United States will introduce clouds and showers for the weekend. High pressure will control our weather today. The upper level ridge will slowly break down as the upper low moves closer to the Mid- Atlantic region. Low pressure over the north-central U. Low pressure will move into the Ohio valley tonight and its associated warm front will lift north. Confidence is high for unsettled conditions as a cold front passes on Saturday and a cold northwest flow arrives afterward. A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic on Saturday to provide scattered rain showers. As the cold front departs by Saturday evening, the wind should shift towards the northwest and increase.
(Rest of Today) A mix of sun and clouds is ongoing across the TN Valley as a weak warm front tries to nudge its way northeast across northern Alabama.
622 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 KEY MESSAGES - Strong fall upper low continues to spin east Friday, bringing continued rain to the region, along with a conditional risk of non- supercell tornadoes to central and isolated portions of northwest Iowa.
An inverted trough into north central/northwest ND with a weak upper level trough in this vicinity is allowing for isolated showers from north central into southwest ND. Large low pressure system in the central plains will continue to bring chances for rain today. These chances continue to linger mainly along and south of Interstate 94, although the higher confidence areas for these showers comes across southeastern North Dakota and in South Dakota. Winds wrapped up with this low could again be breezy today. ECMWF EFI values are generally low, while 850 MB winds, and pressure rises also look on the low to modest side. Today looks to be one of the cooler days of the week with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Upper low pulls out of the region tonight ending shower chances and diminishes breezy winds.
614 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front is currently making its way through the central Texas Panhandle as of 1 AM. Both cooler temps and breezy winds are following behind the front. If winds become light enough, long enough, temps could be flirting with the freezing mark across portions of our northwestern zones.
629 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Today through Saturday Night) Satellite imagery and surface observations show a mid latitude cyclone spanning across the Plains this morning, centered over the state of Nebraska. The cold front associated with this boundary has already pushed through the TX Panhandle, currently spanning from Wichita Falls to Midland. This cold front should continue to push south/southeasterly throughout the day as it's parent surface cyclone treks eastward into the Mississippi River Valley. Short term guidance shows a pre-frontal trough entering SE Texas during the mid morning/early afternoon today, bringing a westerly wind shift with highs progged for the 80s/lower 90s. Gusty northerly flow brought upon by the FROPA should funnel cooler, drier air into the region over the next several days, ushering in a cooling trend. Lows tonight should be in the lower 50s/upper 60s.
Behind an exiting storm system, high pressure will move over the area today.
620 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) A cold front is currently making its way through the region early this morning. Temperatures to the north climb into the 70s and lower 80s, while areas to the south remain warmer in the upper 80s and low 90s. Drier air and high pressure keep skies sunny.
1141 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 A ridge of high pressure at the surface will extend through Central PA today, maintaining mainly sunny and dry conditions through the first half of tonight. Dual low pressure centers will move through the Mid Atlantic Region Saturday, bringing a widespread soaking rain, easterly winds and well below normal temperatures. A nearly north/south ridge of high pressure extended from the Niagara Peninsula south through Central PA.
250 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Strong fall upper low continues to spin east, bringing slowly diminishing rain showers to the region, along with a risk of an isolated non-supercell tornado our far southeast counties (Highway 71 corridor) late this afternoon.
1146 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Today through Saturday Night) Satellite imagery and surface observations show a mid latitude cyclone spanning across the Plains this morning, centered over the state of Nebraska. The cold front associated with this boundary has already pushed through the TX Panhandle, currently spanning from Wichita Falls to Midland. This cold front should continue to push south/southeasterly throughout the day as it's parent surface cyclone treks eastward into the Mississippi River Valley. Short term guidance shows a pre-frontal trough entering SE Texas during the mid morning/early afternoon today, bringing a westerly wind shift with highs progged for the 80s/lower 90s. Gusty northerly flow brought upon by the FROPA should funnel cooler, drier air into the region over the next several days, ushering in a cooling trend. Lows tonight should be in the lower 50s/upper 60s.
Highs will climb into the mid 50s this weekend, with further warming into the low 60s by the middle of the week.
353 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 High pressure today will give way to low pressure on Saturday. High pressure over the region today will give way to an advancing low pressure system late tonight through Saturday. The track of the low will remain well south of the region and setting up a tight south to north rainfall gradient. Upper troughing will remain overhead through the weekend and although the threat for widespread rainfall will end Saturday night, showers activity will remain right through the remainder of the period.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Around the noon hour, the cold front entered the Hill Country and has continued to make steady progress southward. Out ahead of this front, conditions remain warm and humid where the afternoon highs reach into the low 90s for many.
1124 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Upper level low pressure will move east across the Maritimes today.
Generally quiet weather will continue through the weekend, as the region remains under the influence of low pressure over Atlantic Canada and another system passing to the south through the mid- Atlantic.
1232 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 A ridge of high pressure at the surface will extend through Central PA today, maintaining mainly sunny and dry conditions through the first half of tonight. Dual low pressure centers will move through the Mid Atlantic Region Saturday, bringing a widespread soaking rain, easterly winds and well below normal temperatures. A nearly north/south ridge of high pressure extended from the Niagara Peninsula south through Central PA.
1148 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Rest of Today) A mix of sun and clouds is ongoing across the TN Valley as a weak warm front tries to nudge its way northeast across northern Alabama.
Fog should dissipate before noon in the Long Valley and other northern valleys, otherwise sunny and 5 degrees warmer today under a passing upper ridge. Pacific trough will spread clouds inland later today and into our CWA late tonight through Saturday morning. Latest models shift the trough eastward a little sooner and clouds should begin to decrease in eastern Oregon around sunrise, and western Idaho mid-morning, possibly soon enough to allow view of the annular eclipse.
2) Clouds begin clearing for tonight, with freezing temperatures for lower elevations.
There are already plenty of sub-freezing temperatures being noted across the High Country as of 2:15 AM MST. A ridge will begin to build over the Southwest by the end of the weekend and result in temperatures reaching mid to upper 70s for higher elevations and mid 80s to low 90s for lower elevations. Light winds will remain during this ridge pattern too. By mid-week, there is still indication of a trough influencing northern Arizona. Despite the differing outputs, there is moderate to high confidence of cooler temperatures and increased winds.
1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Today through Saturday Night ) An upper level ridge is over the eastern U. this morning with a large upper low over the Plains. The upper ridge will move to the east coast this afternoon as the upper low moves east. The upper low moves to the eastern Great Lakes by late Saturday. Highs today and Friday will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s and cooler on Saturday in the upper 50s to lower 70s.
131 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2023 The low pressure system spins over NE/IA as it shifts eastward and exits our CWA. Behind the main low pressure system, a secondary, weaker low will cross our area tonight into Saturday, reinforcing the cool air and allowing for continued chances for rain showers across south central SD.
The steady shield of clouds across the Northern Plains remains intact, rotating around the area of low pressure over IA.
Weak high pressure aloft over Western Washington will shift eastward today allowing a frontal system to spread some light precipitation back into the region by tonight.
(This evening through Saturday) A cold front moved through the area this morning and is now south of Interstate 10. Saturday will be a very nice day with clear skies, light winds and afternoon highs ranging from the lower 70s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 70s elsewhere. It seems as though a broad trough will develop across the Plains and the eastern U.
High pressure will strengthen over the western U. Objective analysis indicates a continuation of northern stream blocking across North America, albeit in a retrogressive phase with pronounced positive height anomalies over southern Canada building towards the western Conus. An expansive cyclone and enhanced jet over the East Pacific will interact with the aforementioned high pressure ridge over the next 48 hours creating an increasingly amplified pattern and substantial height rises over the Southwest.
Upper low currently rotating over the Missouri River will pull off towards the Great Lakes tonight, with a secondary weak circulation over the Black Hills. Took a while for the lower layers to saturate, but as steady light rain continues, there has been a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain so far in some of our southern counties. Think there will continue to be at least some lingering cloud cover wrapping around the upper low into tonight, so have lows staying in the mid to upper 30s. The clouds should help keep highs tomorrow on the cooler side of average in the low 50s, with lows Saturday night in the mid to upper 30s again.
A high pressure ridge begins to strengthen and reach into the southwestern U. , bringing in drier and warmer conditions with light winds.
1203 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Today and tonight) A narrow, broken band of showers may occur in southeast Oklahoma as the cold front moves through that region by late morning.
(Tonight) Satellite imagery shows a low pressure system spinning over the Plains heading towards the upper Midwest. A cold front is positioned to its south, stretching from MO down to east TX. Ahead of the front, a weak warm front is producing some light drizzle/showers in northeast AL and southern middle TN as it lifts northward. Cloud cover in place should hold temperatures this evening in the low to mid 60s before the cold front arrives from the west. How far east these showers progress is still quite uncertain as most short term models indicate that as the upper low pushes off to the east it will pull the better moisture further away from the local forecast area.
1221 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front is currently making its way through the central Texas Panhandle as of 1 AM. Both cooler temps and breezy winds are following behind the front. If winds become light enough, long enough, temps could be flirting with the freezing mark across portions of our northwestern zones.
1248 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Upper level low pressure will move east across the Maritimes today.
(Rest of today through Saturday) South Florida remains trapped between an area of low pressure situated over northern Florida and a ridge of high pressure over Cuba. Breezy southwesterly winds will persist through this evening when the low starts to shift northeastward and winds become more westerly. Although the low is forecast to depart by tomorrow and drier air is expected to slowly filter in at the mid-levels, enough low level moisture will remain for more scattered showers and storms to develop tomorrow afternoon. Above average temperatures continue through the short term period, with highs reaching the low-mid 90s each afternoon and heat indices well into the triple digits.
1143 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 A ridge of high pressure at the surface will extend through Central PA today, maintaining mainly sunny and dry conditions through the first half of tonight. Dual low pressure centers will move through the Mid Atlantic Region Saturday, bringing a widespread soaking rain, easterly winds and well below normal temperatures. A nearly north/south ridge of high pressure extended from the Niagara Peninsula south through Central PA.
High pressure building into East Idaho today though enough moisture remains in place to allow for widespread cloud development across the region. Temperatures remain the main challenge, and should be very close to freezing again across much of the Snake Plain. Will have another Frost Advisory in place tonight, again with the caveat that a few areas will probably dip below freezing.
1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) A cold front is currently making its way through the region early this morning. Temperatures to the north climb into the 70s and lower 80s, while areas to the south remain warmer in the upper 80s and low 90s. Drier air and high pressure keep skies sunny.
1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 KEY MESSAGES - Strong fall upper low continues to spin east Friday, bringing continued rain to the region, along with a conditional risk of non- supercell tornadoes to central and isolated portions of northwest Iowa.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Saturday/ The cold front continues to make steady progress through the CWA and as of noon was located from Killeen to Corsicana to Paris. Highs on Saturday will reach the lower 70s with northwesterly winds increasing again to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon as mixing occurs. /Issued 357 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023/ /Saturday Night Onward/ The latter half of the weekend and early week will be quite pleasant with post frontal ridging remaining in control across the Plains.
Isentropic ascent will finally relax going into the overnight hours tonight before the upper trough fully departs on Saturday dragging a surface cold front through the area. However, enough of the higher resolution guidance has support for some reduced visibilities late tonight into early Saturday morning to warrant putting it in the grids. If clouds do not clear then temps may bust on the low side across southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama. Tomorrow should be on the warmer side with ample sunshine ahead of the approaching cold front with highs likely climbing into the low to mid 80s along the coast and upper 70s inland.
(This evening through Saturday) Central Alabama remains under the influence of a moist, easterly flow at the surface with a ridge of high pressure centered over the southern Appalachians. Otherwise, most other locations will remain dry with cooler and drier air advecting in from the northwest through Saturday afternoon and evening with decreasing clouds.
(This evening through Saturday) A cold front moved through the area this morning and is now south of Interstate 10. Saturday will be a very nice day with clear skies, light winds and afternoon highs ranging from the lower 70s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 70s elsewhere.
(This evening through Saturday) Cooler and breezy conditions are ongoing in the wake of last night's cold front.
(This evening through Saturday night) Weak upper level ridge has already passed east of the CWA. A quick moving upper level trough behind this ridge will steadily move east across the mid/upper MS River Valley tonight. A cold front associated with this trough will pass through the local area on Saturday. Due to no pre-frontal return flow to increase local moisture levels, will be a completely dry cold front.
Pacific front associated with Central CONUS upper trough, with some help from daytime heating and mixing, will finally push out the crud Friday morning.
Latest high-resolution models are indicating a corridor of steepening low-level lapse rates, increasing 0-3 km CAPE around 100 to 200 J/kg, and backing surface winds, which should support the threat for an isolated tornado or two ahead of the cold front. Additionally, with a strong mid to upper-level jet streak at the base of the parent upper trough, some strong winds, along with large hail, will be possible. Saturday will be noticeably cooler, thanks to the enhanced cold air advection, with high temperatures in the lower to middle 50s for most locations. It will feel even cooler than this, however, thanks to northerly winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph through most of the day.
Cooler weather persists today with overall lighter winds. Tonight should once again see fairly widespread subfreezing temperatures for elevations above 6000 feet. Over the weekend ridging will start to build into the area, triggering a period of moderating temperatures.
A cold front will bring a chance of rain showers to the MidSouth tonight. Cooler and drier air will filter in to the region on Saturday.
The cyclone that brought last night's cold front remains quite obvious in satellite imagery and surface observations this afternoon. It is currently centered over Iowa, with the trailing cold front stretching southward through Missouri, Arkansas, and Texas.
308 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 (Issued 304 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023) Tonight through Saturday night: Occluding low pressure will continue on a flat path east over northern Illinois into tonight. Once steady moderate to heavy rain pushes east this evening, inland areas may see a bit of a break in activity owing to a substantial dry slot over the Mississippi River, with only light showers for a time before thunderstorms along the main cold front/elongated trough currently over Iowa/Missouri pivot northeast toward southern WI and the TROWAL slides southeast from MN/northern WI. As we go into the day tomorrow and the low translates east, we'll see rain over the inland areas of southern Wisconsin come to an orderly end during the late morning to early afternoon, while lake effect showers linger for our lakeshore counties.
As it drags its trailing cold front across the PAH FA, there is still enough elevated instability to work along/with the front for a thunder chance to accompany our upward to categorical pop, mainly thru this evening, before becoming more of an instability chance/showers contained within the broader cyclone aloft that lingers into the weekend. After fropa, we'll have a nice extended run of breezy westerly to north/northwesterly flow drawing in a substantially cooler autumnal air mass as broad long wave troffing envelopes the Eastern third of CONUS. We'll begin to moderate again by mid week as we experience some teleconnected mid level ridging in our residence between the aforementioned eastward departing trof and new/developing high amplitude long wave troffing that approaches from the west. Isolated to numerous showers expected this afternoon/evening with the approach/passage of a cold front.
A cold front will continue moving eastwards through the afternoon and evening, bringing showers and scattered thunderstorms. Behind the cold front, a dreary, cool weekend is expected. An upper low over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa is providing support at the surface for a low pressure system occluding below. Ahead of this cold front, warm air advection has brought showers and a few thunderstorms to much of the area this morning and this afternoon. As the cold front moves east through the afternoon and evening, it will bring with it showers and the possibility for scattered thunderstorms. The cold front will bring cooler, below normal temperatures for Saturday. There is also a chance for light showers and drizzle on Saturday as the upper low shifts to the east and a vorticity maximum rounds in the cyclonic flow.
The low-topped nature of the clouds was allowing radar to overshoot the precipitation, but the ob and webcams were showing rain. However a piece of energy rotating into the area from the northeast today will keep cyclonic flow over the area (modest instability) and winds will remain easterly (weak upslope lift) so will continue with a chance for light showers/sprinkles for the lower elevations, and light snow in the mountains into early this evening. Ridging aloft will bring southerly winds, mostly sunny skies and temperatures near 60 for Saturday afternoon. Mostly clear and dry conditions Saturday night with lows a bit warmer, in the 35 to 40 degree range for most areas and a few near freezing temperatures along the eastern state line. Chambers For the extended, ridging will give way to southwest/westerly flow.
(This evening through Saturday) Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level low over the central Midwest with the associated cold front moving through central TX. Tonight the cooler air mass in place will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s and 40s overnight. With winds expected to remain relatively light, portions of the far northwestern TX Panhandle may see temperatures at or around the freezing mark.
For Saturday, the low-level southerly jet will continue to produce sprinkles and light showers across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee in the morning.