Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Moist upslope flow onto the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and the Raton Mesa is already generating convection there, and it is this convection that is the genesis of our expected MCS. Some isolated storms are possible downstream from that across the High Plains of eastern New Mexico late this afternoon to early evening in areas of differential heating that have formed along dissipating stratus. Rain-cooled outflow should result in cooler overnight lows than seen the last several mornings, at least in line with NBM, if not a bit cooler. Storms could linger across the eastern counties past 12Z Sunday, but subsidence behind the departing line during the morning and underneath a reasserting upper ridge should keep storms at bay during the afternoon while also starting the trend toward hotter temperatures after our brief cool departure today.
1106 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Western NOAM ridge will slowly shift east the next couple days, with mean WNW flow in place across the region. Central Canada upper low will slow this process as weak backdoor cool fronts keep temp rises in check.
(This afternoon through Sunday Night) A morning/early afternoon wave of showers and thunderstorms linger in the east at forecast time and while those should exit the Plateau in the next couple of hours, what they have left in their wake is dew points in the low to mid 70s.
150 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 An upper ridge over the western CONUS has the area under west- northwesterly flow aloft. Current visible satellite shows smoke filtering in over top of the ridge, extending southward into Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri. The upper ridge continues to shift eastward with flow over the area becoming increasingly northwesterly into the start of the week. Temperatures climb back into the 90s tomorrow followed by overnight lows in the low to middle 60s.
126 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 An upper level disturbance and cold front will bring the risk for showers and storms back to the region through tonight. The trough will move into central Ohio late this afternoon and this would be the period to expect showers and storms to blossom over the western half of the forecast area. Some of the latest models are showing the activity split as it crosses the region tonight, with most of the focus to our west with the surface cold front. The cold front will finally swing east shortly after dawn on Sunday.
(This evening through Sunday) A slow moving and nearly stalled cold front currently south of the I-20 corridor has shifted winds to the north to northeast behind it with some breezier and slightly cooler conditions. However, Heat Advisories will remain in place through early this evening for the counties south of the I-20 corridor since warmer temperatures aloft remain steadfast over the area.
However, low level veering of the winds with approach of a mid/upper level trough later this morning should tend to make things more progressive after daybreak. A few pockets of better instability may develop today however, one area across northwest Ohio where slightly better moisture profiles/low level moisture transport reside, and across the far west/northwest where some slight pooling of low level moisture may accompany the approaching low level trough axis.
An upper level low moving across Canada will continue a breezy northwest flow pattern across the area through this evening. With high pressure in place, limited chances for precipitation are also expected.
1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (Today through Sunday Night) Conditions will remain dangerously hot today with limited to no rain activity expected as the mid to upper level high continues to dominate the local weather pattern. The high temperatures this afternoon will be in low 100s for much of the inland portions, the upper 90s along the southernmost portions, and the low to mid 90s along the immediate coast and Barrier Islands. This will help push the upper level ridge slightly the to west southwest of Southeast TX. Unfortunately, the mid level ridge doesn't budge much. Locations that have the best chance of any shower or thunderstorm would be the eastern counties, closer to the trough's influence and where storms developing to our north could move into.
Next system of concern will arrive for Sunday afternoon and evening with digging cyclonic flow into the area and a pronounced mid/upper level speed max rounding the base of this trough. A weak surface/850 trough will lead to some lower level convergence mid to late afternoon. We will see 500 millibar temps drop into the minus teens celsius as influence of the mid level trough amplifies across the area. After the wave and front/trough swing through much of Sunday night looks quiet with the activity shifting off to our east and southeast.
232 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 High pressure remains centered over the Great Basin with mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures in the forecast, yet again. Not much change Sunday as the high pressure drifts eastward with the center located over the St. High pressure remains over the southwestern CONUS. The period starts off with a transitory ridge moving eastward through the northern CONUS.
(This evening through Sunday Night) The mid to upper level high will continue to maintain a grip over the area with temperatures in or just shy of the triple digits this afternoon for inland areas and in the 90s along the coast.
917 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Current satellite water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridge building over the Pacific Northwest this morning, which is forecast to move east over the forecast area today and Sunday. Temperatures will heat up by several degrees today compared to yesterday, with at least a 70% chance (or greater) of reaching triple digits in the lower elevation valleys.
The ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather across the Northern Rockies this weekend.
Slightly cooler conditions return to start the week 3.
(Rest of Today) A weakening upper low will continue to drop southward across eastern Manitoba/western Ontario today. This feature will maintain modest cyclonic flow aloft of 25-35 knots across the TN Valley, flanked by subtropical ridges centered across both southern CA/NV and the southwestern North Atlantic.
224 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Smoke continues to stream in on the jet within the upper trough. There is some improvement in vsby this afternoon in the northeastern cwa as the trough digs farther south, taking the smoke with it. The weekend forecast remains dry with smoke and the upper trough keeping high temperatures around 5 degrees below average.
331 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Several waves of low pressure will move northeastward along a stalled boundary to out south resulting in additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday.
Looking at model data, a thunderstorm threat lingers all the way through Sunday morning and possibly even into the early afternoon right along the West Virginia and Virginia borders until drier air finally wins out and the cold front and upper trough pushes east toward the Eastern Seaboard during the day Sunday.
/ISSUED 551 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023/ Smoke from Canadian wildfires continue to blanket the area today as upper level ridging across the Northwestern CONUS results in northwesterly flow across the area. Aside from the smoke, it will also be slightly warmer today, with most areas across the area seeing highs about 6 degrees warmer than yesterday along with a 10% chance of seeing a shower or thunderstorm across the North Central Plains. The upper level ridge will slide a little further eastward on Sunday, which will help to start to slowly kick the smoke out of the area, while allowing temperatures to climb further for the afternoon. Expect most areas to see highs reach and exceed 90 across the lower elevations on Sunday.
Otherwise, storms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of Colorado today. Highs tomorrow are expected to be at seasonal levels with values in the low 90s.
1213 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (Rest of Today) A weakening upper low will continue to drop southward across eastern Manitoba/western Ontario today. This feature will maintain modest cyclonic flow aloft of 25-35 knots across the TN Valley, flanked by subtropical ridges centered across both southern CA/NV and the southwestern North Atlantic.
Tonight and Sunday High pressure is beginning to exert its dominance over the region and this is quite evident when looking at visible satellite imagery this afternoon which shows maybe a few clouds across a good portion of the Great Basin. Temperatures have warmed quickly into the 80s region-wide with afternoon highs likely to reach into the lower 90s across much of the Snake Plain, eastern Magic Valley and across the desert perhaps making it into the Sun Valley region as well. These temps will seem pleasant compared to tomorrow's high temperatures which will likely soar into the triple digits across a good chunk of the lower valleys while reaching into the mid to upper 90s across the Upper Snake Plain, Sun Valley region and into the Stanley and Challis basins.
Storms will develop across the central Plains Sunday evening and spread ESE associated with the next weak cold front.
238 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Low pressure will move through the area tonight then east of the area Sunday.
Aloft we're in northwest flow with a broad trof axis to our east and a high pressure heat dome over the southwest CONUS.
Tonight and Sunday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar analysis show an upper level low pressure system spinning across central Canada and weak cold front moving southeast over northwest Wisconsin and the far western Upper Peninsula. The cold front will move across northeast Wisconsin. Scattered showers and storms will likely persist along the cold front into north-central and far northeast WI into the evening. Lows ranging from the the lower 50s to lower 60s. The upper low over Canada will drop into the Lake Superior region. Most likely looking at a straight line wind threat, but small hail could also be possible given the low wet bulb zero heights. Cooler highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
247 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Weak surface ridging across the area today has led to seasonal max temperatures and mostly clear skies. Could see some convection across SE CO and the high plains this evening, but as the convection slides east-southeast, it will run into drier more stable air, so not expecting any convection to make it this far east.
242 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Scattered thunderstorms have formed over the foothills southwest of Denver and also along the Cheyenne Ridge. Even in the higher foothills and Front Range mountains, dew points have fallen into the 30s. For Sunday, an upper level ridge building over the Desert Southwest and Great Basin will bring warmer and dry conditions. Northwest winds will increase over the higher terrain in places Sunday afternoon with gust to 30 mph.
Otherwise, the CAMs have suggested some isolated storm development this afternoon in northern Iowa ahead of a subtle trof axis sweeping east-southeast.
Temperature minimums, as a result, will be slightly cooler in the mid-to-upper 70s.
Area is currently slotted between a ridge along the west coast and a trof over the Great Lakes region.
Northwest wind gusts were peaking in the low 20s mph, mainly to the west of the Red River Valley.
1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front continues to move slowly south ushering in lower temperatures and dewpoints. There will be some potential for wind with these storms depending on how the evolve, but the higher potential for severe storms looks to be west of our forecast area, but we will be watching the evolution and the environment.
Lows are expected to dip into the lower to upper 70s. By Sunday, a high pressure extending over the southwestern CONUS into the Lower Mississippi Valley will force a upper trough eastwards. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 90s.
543 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 High pressure remains centered over the Great Basin with mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures in the forecast, yet again. Not much change Sunday as the high pressure drifts eastward with the center located over the St. High pressure remains over the southwestern CONUS. The period starts off with a transitory ridge moving eastward through the northern CONUS.
444 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 An upper ridge over the western CONUS has the area under west- northwesterly flow aloft. Current visible satellite shows smoke filtering in over top of the ridge, extending southward into Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri. The upper ridge continues to shift eastward with flow over the area becoming increasingly northwesterly into the start of the week. Temperatures climb back into the 90s tomorrow followed by overnight lows in the low to middle 60s.
738 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Low pressure will move through the area tonight then east of the area Sunday.
632 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (This evening through Sunday) A slow moving and nearly stalled cold front currently south of the I-20 corridor has shifted winds to the north to northeast behind it with some breezier and slightly cooler conditions. However, Heat Advisories will remain in place through early this evening for the counties south of the I-20 corridor since warmer temperatures aloft remain steadfast over the area.
637 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Weak surface ridging across the area today has led to seasonal max temperatures and mostly clear skies. Could see some convection across SE CO and the high plains this evening, but as the convection slides east-southeast, it will run into drier more stable air, so not expecting any convection to make it this far east.
Hot and dry weather continues under the influence of a strong high pressure system centrally located over the desert southwest. Sunday will see near record setting heat and high temperatures as highs are forecast to reach the lower to mid 100s in valley areas.
The main activity this evening was a strong thunderstorm north of the Lower Keys that persisted for almost an hour before finally dissipating. Tonight's sounding sampled rising heights at all significant levels, as well as drier air in the lower levels. A mid to upper level trough traversing across the Southeast has nudged the ridge axis south towards the Florida Keys, causing winds to become southeast to south, and even variable at times. Elsewhere, temperatures will remain in the lower to mid 80s.
Eventually, 24 hours from now, a strong enough push of cleaner northwest winds will push the low level smoke out of the area by Sunday night.
648 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (This evening through Sunday) This morning's 12Z upper air analysis depicted a broad upper trough extending from Manitoba and across the upper midwest with an upper ridge centered over central California.
Broad mid-level troughing exists from the Great Lakes south toward the Gulf Coast, with weak pulses traversing the FL peninsula. Light to moderate offshore flow continues out of the WSW to SW as the ridge axis slowly lifts north toward Lake Okeechobee.
959 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (This evening through Sunday) This morning's 12Z upper air analysis depicted a broad upper trough extending from Manitoba and across the upper midwest with an upper ridge centered over central California.
616 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Smoke continues to stream in on the jet within the upper trough. There is some improvement in vsby this afternoon in the northeastern cwa as the trough digs farther south, taking the smoke with it. The weekend forecast remains dry with smoke and the upper trough keeping high temperatures around 5 degrees below average.
High pressure will continue to amplify over the Intermountain West throughout the day Sunday, allowing the warming trend to continue under southwest flow aloft. High temperatures are slated to peak well above 100 degrees across the lower valleys with several locations on track to break daily temperature records. Clear skies overnight and into Sunday with a few afternoon/evening cumulus over the higher terrain.
As a result, tempertures will be slightly cooler in the northern half of the area, and near same to slightly warmer in southern Mendocino and Lake County on Sunday.
Otherwise, light winds, mostly clear skies and dew points in the 60s support leaving overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s.
(This evening through Sunday) This morning's 12Z upper air analysis depicted a broad upper trough extending from Manitoba and across the upper midwest with an upper ridge centered over central California.
The remainder of the night will be quiet with temperatures dropping to the low to mid 70s. Relatively benign weather is expected Sunday as the Mid-South remains on the back side of a cold front.
The last several runs of the HRRR suggest outflow from storms on the High Plains will eventually lead to more storms or a cluster of storms near the Red River late tonight into Sunday morning. Storms will develop across the central Plains Sunday evening and spread ESE associated with the next weak cold front.
837 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Dew points are several degrees cooler than they were at this time last night, and they will continue to drop. Current dew point temps are right at 70 degrees for most and by Sunday afternoon, they will be in the low-to-mid 60s. (This afternoon through Sunday Night) A morning/early afternoon wave of showers and thunderstorms linger in the east at forecast time and while those should exit the Plateau in the next couple of hours, what they have left in their wake is dew points in the low to mid 70s.
With that said, Heat Advisories remain in effect across the higher elevations and into Brewster County. Initial development is expected in and around the higher elevations. Heat Advisories remain for the higher elevations through the afternoon and evening.
(Tonight) The cold front is slowly progressing southeast towards the TN Valley this evening.
613 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (This evening through Sunday Night) The mid to upper level high will continue to maintain a grip over the area with temperatures in or just shy of the triple digits this afternoon for inland areas and in the 90s along the coast.
Smoke continues to stream in on the jet within the upper trough. There is some improvement in vsby this afternoon in the northeastern cwa as the trough digs farther south, taking the smoke with it. The weekend forecast remains dry with smoke and the upper trough keeping high temperatures around 5 degrees below average.
931 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Low pressure will move through the area tonight then east of the area Sunday.
635 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) A morning/early afternoon wave of showers and thunderstorms linger in the east at forecast time and while those should exit the Plateau in the next couple of hours, what they have left in their wake is dew points in the low to mid 70s.
357 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 A weak cold front will move east of the region this morning. A cold front will slowly move across the region early this morning.
(Today through Monday) Key Message: - Dangerous heat continues A strong 594 DM upper level ridge will remain over South Texas through Monday maintaining hot and dry conditions.
The associated frontal boundary of the aforementioned upper level trough is expected to stalls just north of the area today leading to additional moisture and instability into the region to linger through the first half of the week.
1109 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 High pressure remains centered over the Great Basin with mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures in the forecast, yet again. Not much change Sunday as the high pressure drifts eastward with the center located over the St. High pressure remains over the southwestern CONUS. The period starts off with a transitory ridge moving eastward through the northern CONUS. As such, heat advisories remain in effect across the low elevations.
Afternoon highs should reach up into the lower to middle 90s across the region.
(Today through Monday) Anomalous heat and summertime convection will be likely once again today as high pressure continues to build over South Florida. Generally southwesterly flow along the periphery of the high will favor increased diurnal heating and a delayed start to convective activity, allowing temperatures to reach the mid 90s and heat indices to approach the 110-112 deg F range, especially over the East Coast metro areas. Temperatures will remain elevated, with highs reaching the low 90s and heat indices in the 105-108 deg F range across Miami-Dade county, where a Heat Advisory will be in effect from 7PM Sunday night through 7PM Monday night.
This could also hold highs down somewhat tomorrow, though still warmer than today with the area in between systems. This and a seasonably strong mid-upper jet will steer a cold front through with renewed shower/storm chances. Showers could linger into Monday morning, with preference to drier and slightly cooler model solutions for most by Monday afternoon with the main cold front clearing to the south.
Additional scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front, but severe weather is not expected as instability will be lacking during this portion of the diurnal cycle and moisture transport into the area in advance of the cold front will be minor. Depending on where the cold front and resulting low level convergence is by Monday afternoon, there may be a better flare up of showers and storms.
248 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 The primary synoptic-scale feature in the short term period is a broad deep closed low moving slowly east-southeastward across Ontario. The higher concentratedÂ smoke and haze should shift east during the evening and night, with minor visibilityÂ reductions and haze lingering. Regardless of the timing, one of the two mechanisms should offer the greatest convective potential into the evening and overnight, and this is when we have the highest precipitation probabilities.
239 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a cool cored airmass centered over central Manitoba and spread out over the central third of Canada and a hot, high pressure over the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West. A weak ridge juts north from the Intermountain West and runs up into Idaho and southeastern British Columbia. The ridge/cap aloft will be acting against this lift. Monday through the evening: Ridge to the west will gain strength and move eastward exerting more influence and warmth across the region. Meanwhile, a thermal trough will form under the ridge and allow for afternoon thunderstorms to form over far western zones and central Montana Mountains, just west of the ridge axis as it passes.
1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 (Tonight) The cold front is slowly progressing southeast towards the TN Valley this evening. (Sunday through Monday night) Over the course of the short term period, the Canadian upper low (which has been mentioned for the past few days) will open into a wave and eject northeastward across Ontario/Quebec, with the trailing trough axis expected cross the TN Valley on Monday night. A low (25-30%) chance for thunderstorms will return for a brief period Monday afternoon/evening, as outflow- driven convection originating along a stalling cold front in the OH Valley may tend to propagate south-southwestward into the TN Valley during this period.
An upper-level ridge continues to build across the desert southwest and will support a warming trend today into early this week as it builds east. Expect west/southwest winds to advect in low-level moisture as highs climb into the lower to middle 90s. Meanwhile, the region remains in northwest flow on the eastern periphery of the ridge. The first wave of energy moves through the central CONUS late this afternoon into the evening, with the highest rain chances across central Missouri. Monday: Slightly cooler on Monday afternoon with a weak frontal passage with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.