Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The lack of cloud cover along with a moderate Delta Breeze have resulted in cooler temperatures through the valley with most areas running 7-15 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago. Valley temperatures vary from the mid 60s in the Delta to the lower to mid 80s at the north end of the Sacramento Valley.
High pressure over the region will continue to bring hot temperatures and daily precipitation chances for much of the area through the weekend. The high pressure near the Four Corners continues to funnel in moisture, resulting in our precipitation chances for this afternoon. By Wednesday, the ridge will begin to wobble slightly eastward, resulting in more confined precipitation chances along the eastern Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains.
High pressure will remain just south of the coastal waters today, keeping westerly flow in place, with rain chances over the eastern Gulf of Mexico increasing through the morning hours and shifting inland during the afternoon.
The cold front that brought increased winds and cooler temperatures on Tuesday is on its way east. GOES satellite water vapor imagery this morning depicts a stationary closed low pressure system off the coast of northern British Columbia and a closed high pressure system over the southwestern US. Over the next few days, these two features will work together to amplify a ridge of high pressure over the northwestern US. Ensemble model solutions are in good agreement for the amplitude of the ridge to peak this weekend with the axis of the ridge over western Montana.
Surface analysis early this morning shows extensive high pressure covering the Northern Plains across the Upper-Mid Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes. A developing low pressure center sits over central Montana, associated with a parent low over southern Alberta province. Aloft, sharp ridging persists over the western CONUS while broad longwave troughing continues over eastern into central CONUS regions.
917 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Dewpoints remain in the lower 80s across much of the region as of 9 AM CDT already producing heat indices over 100 in several locations. Upper level ridging in place across the area will limit cloud cover to just scattered cu with no precip expected.
(This evening through Wednesday night) The strong ~600dam H5 ridge continues to spread eastward toward our region this afternoon. Additionally, with limited return flow and boundary layer maintenance, expect dewpoints/RH values to be a bit on the lower side than we'd tend to expect.
Deubelbeiss A cold front continues to settle southward toward the Ohio River early this morning. Elsewhere around the area, expect partly sunny and dry weather with afternoon highs mostly in the lower 80s.
320 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Key Messages: - Thunderstorms move off the higher terrain of the Black Hills and southeast Wyoming, impacting portions of western and north central Nebraska this evening and overnight.
107 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper-level high pressure remains in control of our weather today as it continues to nose closer to the forecast area. This will result in even warmer temperatures today under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures at 850 mb are forecasted to be slightly cooler than what we were expecting this time yesterday which should keep high temperatures between 105 and 109 on the Caprock and near 110 degrees east of the Caprock escarpment.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) Hot temperatures and typical wet season convection continue to be the primary weather hazards through the short term as mid-level ridging strengthens over Florida. Temperatures and heat indices will remain elevated today and Wednesday as high temperatures reach the low 90s and heat indices approach the 105-108 deg F range across South FL.
1209 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Key Messages: - Drier and slightly warmer today. Today and Tonight: The 500 mb closed low which has been in control of the area's weather during the several days will move northeast from Ontario into Quebec. These are just a couple of degrees below the seasonable highs in the lower and mid-80s. While the 0-6 km shear look favorable the potential of a few supercells, there is plenty of uncertainty on the CAPES ahead of the cold front on Wednesday night.
An upper trough swinging through the region is bringing cooler temps aloft, which is creating some instability for the cu development. Another sunny day is expected Wednesday with a bit warmer temperatures. we should reach the lower to mid 80s. and less cu development as the trough axis. and cooler temps aloft.
Daytime highs are still expected to climb into the mid to upper 90s north of Interstate 20 and the lower 100s south of I-20. The expansive upper-level ridge out west will become even more amplified farther east into our entire region the next few days, prolonging this unrelenting heat and humidity.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) A strong upper-level ridge currently centered over New Mexico will continue to dominate our weather as it slowly expands and migrates eastward. Despite the ridge becoming more elongated and somewhat flattened by Wednesday afternoon, it will still provide plenty of subsidence to keep mostly clear skies and precip-free conditions in place. Conversely, the lower humidity and the advection of low-level hot and dry air from across Texas should also result in another degree or two of warming. However, model guidance suggests 850 hPa temps may be slightly cooler due to the elongation of the upper ridge. The NBM was surprisingly conservative, so I trended a few degrees higher and more towards the higher side of the guidance envelope.
Plus, forecast soundings, including on the HRRR, have the low levels being so dry tomorrow morning that any precip that does manage to get stirred up aloft likely won't make it to the surface.
A low-level jet continues to pump in moisture to the low levels increasing dew points into the lower 60s. Tomorrow, an upper low will move in from Canada bringing in wrap around precipitation to the region. An upper level low that brought weather to the short term will push off to the east ushering in northwesterly meridional flow. A strong upper level ridge over Western CONUS will shift over the Central Plains bringing a warm up to the region.
1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge parked directly over New Mexico, maximizing thicknesses for the next couple of days over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Today through Wednesday, the ridge is forecast to develop east into the Gulf Coast states, and while a trough dives out of Canada into the Great Lakes region, flattening the ridge somewhat, this will have little effect on Wednesday's highs.
A strong upper level ridge, which the mean 500 hPa heights continues to reach the 99th or Max percentile of climatology per the NAEFS and GEFS, will slightly move east and expand across the West TX/Southern Plains, resulting in very hot days. With little movement of the ridge, another hot Wednesday can also be expected. Expect highs from the mid 90s to 102Â°F both days; though highs could be a couple of degrees cooler on Wednesday as the ridge slightly shifts west. In terms of precipitation, with strong subsidence aloft thanks to the upper ridge, a fairly quiet weather is expected.
The upper level ridge will expand eastward across our area on Wednesday. Temperatures will be slightly 'cooler' across the northern Edwards Plateau, and a Heat Advisory has been issued for those counties.
1105 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Yesterday's trough has swept east overnight, with the remnants of the cold front generally along the WY/CO border. The trough also pushed the top of the ridge back to the south, with westerly flow returning across the state. The rest of the week, WY remains pressed between the ridge to the south and passing waves across Canada.
The upper-ridge has become centered over the southern Rocky Mountains this afternoon and remains there through tomorrow. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon may be a touch warmer across the area. Heat Advisories cover most locations with Excessive Heat Warnings across the higher elevations and surrounding foothills and Eddy, Brewster, and Mitchell Counties.
As upper level troughing moves through the southeast U. , high pressure aloft and on the surface ridging will remain stretched across southern Florida for one more day.
215 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023 A cold front will push through the region this afternoon and evening, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure and dry conditions are expected on Wednesday. Cold front is still in western NY and will slowly push eastward, exiting the region late tonight. High pressure will build in from the west overnight, with clearing skies and valley fog are likely to form through the early morning hours on Wednesday. High pressure remains overhead tomorrow. A few isolated showers will be possible in the southern Catskills and Poconos, but at this time it appears that the high will be strong enough to keep most shower activity south of the area.
Clear skies under high pressure tonight with the lows in the middle to upper 50s. Warmer Wednesday ahead of a frontal system.
Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, temperatures have already climbed into the lower 80s in NE AL to around 90 degrees in far NW AL.
1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (Today and tonight) Heat will continue to be the main story through the day today as the more pronounced mid-level ridge moves towards the east. Temperatures will eventually drop back into the upper 70s overnight, and dewpoints in the upper 50s will help to make it feel much cooler than previous nights.
Temperatures tonight will vary from the upper 50s in the north to the mid 60s in the south which is where the higher dewpoints are expected.
/Issued 1205 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023/ /Through Tomorrow/ Triple digit high temperatures and heat index values will persist across all of North and Central Texas through the next few days as the region remains under the influence of a strong upper level ridge. Areas along and west of the I-35 corridor will reach Excessive Heat Warning criteria this afternoon and tomorrow as high temperatures soar into the 105-110 degree range, but strong mixing in the lower levels will keep heat index values within 2-3 degrees of the observed temperature.
Low temperatures tonight remain fairly comfortable in the lower to mid 60s.
Wednesday will see heat return to parts of the area with locations south of I-70 having potential to see highs in the low to mid 90s along with heat index values around 100-105. With the boundary still in the area expect locations south to warm into the low to mid 90s. Combine that with dewpoints in the low 70s and we can expect to see heat index values around 100 to as high as 105 in southern parts of the area.
High pressure builds in through the week leading to gradual warming to above-normal temperatures by the weekend. Marine stratus from this morning has scattered back to the immediate coastline except for a thin finger of low clouds that remains through the Golden Gate bridge. (Today and tonight) It's a quiet night across the Bay Area with temperatures running about 5 to 10 degrees cooler tonight than compared to this same time last night as cold air advection helps to reduce temperatures.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Ridge begins to flatten tomorrow, becoming stretched across the state. There is a weakness under the ridge moving from Louisiana back to the Middle Texas coast tonight, but with PWAT values under 1.
1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Dewpoints remain in the lower 80s across much of the region as of 9 AM CDT already producing heat indices over 100 in several locations. Upper level ridging in place across the area will limit cloud cover to just scattered cu with no precip expected.
359 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 A trough is situated over Ontario/Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes with a wave coming off of the eastern Rockies. High pressure stays over the Southern Plains/CONUS and western CONUS.
Dew points have mixed out into the lower to middle 70s across most inland areas with mid and upper 70s closer to the coast. Although, as we head into the rest of the afternoon, we should see temperatures continue to rise into the mid and upper 90s given strong solar insolation and a building upper ridge over the area. Heat will continue to be the main concern on Wednesday as a large upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest extends further into the area. Highs are forecast to top out into the mid to upper 90s with values around 90 degrees to the lower 90s along the immediate coast. Most areas should remain dry through the near term thanks to the upper ridge and increased subsidence in place.
1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (Today and tonight) High pressure will continue to build across the region driving temperatures even higher for today. Pretty much all of our models continue this high pressure across the region giving us high confidence in this forecast.
The flow becomes more northwesterly as a weak ridge slowly builds into the area tonight, but northerly low-level flow will keep temperatures mild, to slightly below normal (low to mid 80s) for another pleasant day with no storm potential.
Expect dry and sunny conditions for the next few days, as an upper level ridge of high pressure starts to build over Montana.
101 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (Today through Wednesday) High pressure anchored over the Four Corners will continue an eastern expansion across South Texas.
There continues to be increasing confidence that hotter temperatures could materialize once again this weekend as a four corners high pressure ridge strengthens.
Wednesday should start out sunny, but clouds will increase during the day as an upper trough and surface cold front approach.
Mild low temperatures will range near to slightly above climo values in the low 70s.
/JNE/ Today and Tonight: A strengthening upper-level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will build eastward today, with mid-level height rises over our forecast area contributing to less clouds aloft and warmer temperatures at the surface this afternoon. I didn't go quite as aggressive for warming today as some guidance, but temps should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. With the strengthening ridge building in from the west, this thunderstorm activity is more likely to remain north and east of our forecast area, but we will have to monitor trends for a more organized damaging wind threat in the Golden Triangle area in northeastern MS.
1158 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (Now through Wednesday) Key Messages: - Abnormally hot temperatures (near daily records) & dangerous heat indices continue - Potential for elevated fire weather concerns A very potent 599-600dam H5 ridge, centered over the Desert Southwest Region, will shift eastward over the TX/NM border and continue to produce abnormally hot and dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the short term. At the surface, ridging will remain anchored over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the thermal/pressure gradient will will bring breezy southeast winds both this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon.
Synoptically, a closed circulation is located over the central provinces of Canada with a large ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest.
1139 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Current surface map places weak low across eastern Montana with trough extending into eastern Wyoming. If a thunderstorm does develop along the trough this afternoon/evening, sufficient bulk shear/buoyancy to support large hail. For the last half of the week into the weekend, upper high becomes established over the Four Corners region with ridging extending through the northern Rockies. This will favor warmer and drier conditions over the forecast area.
Upper level ridge building over the area today will remain through Wednesday.
The Florida Keys are in between two large mean- layer anticyclones, one centered over the western North Atlantic and the other over the southwestern US.
A quick update to tweak the timing of any "shower" or storm in the highlands closer to the Utah border. Following an exiting trough yesterday that brought wind gusts as high as 61 mph to Tom Cat Summit, mostly clear skies and quiet winds have returned outside of lingering cloud cover and shower activity south of the Snake Plain into the Great Basin. 40 inches working into the CNTRL Mountains associated with drier air working in behind the trough yesterday.
Main upper low is currently crossing Saskatchewan and is expected to travel southeastward across the RRV Wednesday. This trough/boundary is expected to push eastward and into central ND, just west of the forecast area by late afternoon. CAPE has been increasing across central/western ND with some CIN still in place, with low level moisture increasing across the area shown by dewpoints into the low/mid 60s along/ahead of the boundary. Expect to see an area of showers/isolated storms push east into MN overnight, with additional thunderstorm threat with the passage of the upper low across the area Wednesday afternoon. Greater instability and position of the cold front should confine the threat to the eastern/southeastern portions of the forecast area. Will have continued northwest flow pattern across the area for the end of the week as upper ridging builds across the west.
Cronce (Issued 358 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023) Today through Wednesday: High pressure will be building into the Great Lakes Region from the Plains today. The high pressure is expected to move overhead this evening into Tonight. Wednesday will be very similar today as the high pressure starts to exit the Great Lake Region. High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 80s both days with Wednesday expected to be slightly warmer than today with the southerly winds behind the high pressure system.
As the low level jet ramps up, pwats increase into the 2 to 2.
A triple point or intersection of an occluded front/warm front and cold front is forecast to be over northwest MN. The warm front will be southeastward from that location to northwestern WI while a cold front will be draped south/southwest to the NE panhandle. As that area lifts northeastward out of the region, another area is expected to developed along the triple point centered near ELY by 18Z with cold front southwestward to northeastern CO and warm front southeastward near the MI/WI border.
609 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 (This evening through Wednesday Night) A strong upper-level ridge currently centered over New Mexico will continue to dominate our weather as it slowly expands and migrates eastward. Despite the ridge becoming more elongated and somewhat flattened by Wednesday afternoon, it will still provide plenty of subsidence to keep mostly clear skies and precip-free conditions in place. Conversely, the lower humidity and the advection of low-level hot and dry air from across Texas should also result in another degree or two of warming. However, model guidance suggests 850 hPa temps may be slightly cooler due to the elongation of the upper ridge. The NBM was surprisingly conservative, so I trended a few degrees higher and more towards the higher side of the guidance envelope.
High pressure ridge to the south will be lifting north over the area, keeping winds light but shifting them to the S/SE through mid-week. The ridge axis then shifts south again for the weekend.
309 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Temperatures will begin to trend warmer again Wednesday through the end of the week as high pressure builds over the region.
417 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Wyoming is currently sandwiched between high pressure persisting over New Mexico and a passing low over south-central Canada. Temperatures are a little cooler than yesterday after the front came through last night, but still quite warm.
High pressure will remain anchored over west Texas into the the Desert Southwest driving weather conditions through the period.
Temperatures will be comparatively cooler through midweek with warming temperatures through the end of the week and into the weekend. Ridging aloft continues to build eastward as a weak upper trough works in over the Pacific Northwest. By late week, however, cluster analysis is in good agreement on the upper level ridge building back westward across interior NorCal.
732 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023 A cold front will push through the region this afternoon and evening, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure and dry conditions are expected on Wednesday. Cold front is slowly pushing through our region, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms moving in as a result. Cold front is still in western NY and will slowly push eastward, exiting the region late tonight. High pressure will build in from the west overnight, with clearing skies and valley fog are likely to form through the early morning hours on Wednesday. High pressure remains overhead tomorrow. A few isolated showers will be possible in the southern Catskills and Poconos, but at this time it appears that the high will be strong enough to keep most shower activity south of the area.
633 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 A trough is situated over Ontario/Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes with a wave coming off of the eastern Rockies. High pressure stays over the Southern Plains/CONUS and western CONUS.
Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday for the far northeast portions of the CWA as low pressure drifts into North Dakota. Upper level ridging will become more pronounced across the western U.
Key Messages: - Thunderstorms move off the higher terrain of the Black Hills and southeast Wyoming, impacting portions of western and north central Nebraska this evening and overnight.
Interior valleys will then warm toward the low 100s during late week. An upper-level anticyclone was centered over SRN AZ/NM this afternoon, and a large cyclone was positioned over the Gulf of Alaska. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures will transition to moderately hot during the second half of the week as an upper ridge builds over the WRN CONUS.
Some of the high resolution models are showing ongoing convection all night, albeit widely scattered in nature. Models show flat upper ridging with moderately strong zonal flow aloft for the CWA tonight and Wednesday. There is some CAPE around this evening, with the highest values along the eastern border. For temperatures, Wednesday's highs will be around 3 C cooler than today's highs.
The trailing cold front will move across srn WI during the overnight with marginal elevated CAPE present.
955 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023 A cold front will push through the region this afternoon and evening, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure and dry conditions are expected on Wednesday. 700 PM Cold front is slowly pushing through our region, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms moving in as a result. Cold front is still in western NY and will slowly push eastward, exiting the region late tonight. High pressure will build in from the west overnight, with clearing skies and valley fog are likely to form through the early morning hours on Wednesday. High pressure remains overhead tomorrow. A few isolated showers will be possible in the southern Catskills and Poconos, but at this time it appears that the high will be strong enough to keep most shower activity south of the area.
Models show flat upper ridging with moderately strong zonal flow aloft for the CWA tonight and Wednesday. There is some CAPE around this evening, with the highest values along the eastern border. For temperatures, Wednesday's highs will be around 3 C cooler than today's highs.