Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1016 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 High pressure across the Great Lakes will persist into tonight. A cold front will cross the area on Tuesday night, reinforcing the cooler, dry conditions. A wedge of high pressure remains across the area tonight offering mostly clear sky conditions and light winds. As the mid level trof sharpens up on Tuesday the area remains between systems. Have introduced this chance into the grids and will continue to monitor as we move into reach of the high- resolution models.
727 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (Today and tonight) A weak trough of low pressure over the area will provide a better than normal chance of convection today and tonight.
506 AM MDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Most recent water vapor and upper air models continue to show the upper high sitting over southwestern CONUS and an upper low over northwestern Montana, with northwest flow aloft our region. A bit of a warming trend and dry conditions are expected the first half of the work week as the ridge stays in place over the western US.
1035 AM MDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Most recent water vapor and upper air models continue to show the upper high sitting over southwestern CONUS and an upper low over northwestern Montana, with northwest flow aloft our region. A bit of a warming trend and dry conditions are expected the first half of the work week as the ridge stays in place over the western US.
1218 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night ) Quiet and cooler conditions had returned to the Natural State in the wake of a frontal boundary. Highs today should range from the lower 80s to to around 90 degrees. Aloft, the ridge responsible for the recent bout of heat will be located over invof Four Corners region with a broad ridge over the OH Valley into New England.
High pressure is moving southeast into Illinois, with a return of southwest winds over Iowa and Wisconsin. While this is aiding temperatures rising to the lower 80s, the dewpoints have been slow to rise, with little moisture source available in the quick transition to return flow ahead of the approaching cold front. Tonight, west to southwest winds will continue, with dewpoints rising to the lower 60s overnight, resulting in temperatures holding in the lower to mid 60s for lows, but otherwise dry conditions ahead of the front. Through deeper mixing and breezy northwest winds Tuesday we should see highs return to the lower 80s north to mid 80s central and south Tuesday.
1251 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible today Radar and surface analysis this morning reveals a cold front draped just about midway across the region. A slight surge of high pressure this afternoon will help encourage low level convergence across the Coastal Plains which may be enough to squeeze out a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. Highs tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler as drier air works into the region.
Lows will be in the mid 50s to low 60s, though a tad warmer in the metropolitan areas.
Monsoon moisture brings a return of more widespread storms and cooler weather for the second half of the week. Even warmer and drier weather is anticipated tomorrow. A strong ridge was located across the southwest US this morning, centered near southern California. Some northerly flow in the lower levels will also tend to dry out our air mass leading to a downturn in thunderstorm coverage.
Between now and 6pm, sufficient surface heating and some supportive instability looks to sustain some brief gusty conditions of 30-40mph up to the Highway 84 corridor. In the West, surface ridging begins to build back into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Key Message: Showers and thunderstorms in the higher terrain east of I-79 may produce locally heavy rainfall and/or strong wind gusts this afternoon. There some question to the extent of the high cloud cover tonight but generally thinking that areas outside the ridges will clear with the high pressures influence.
Key Message: Showers and thunderstorms in the higher terrain east of I-79 may produce locally heavy rainfall or strong wind gusts this afternoon. Patchy fog will be possible tonight as calm, clear skies prevail for most regions apart from the ridges. In the ridges, despite cloud cover, there will be additional surface moisture seeded from daytime rainfall. This has led to slight chance PoPs over a larger area, although most convection is expected to be tied to the ridges yet again with orographic influence.
This includes not only surface moisture, but also deep moisture on the downstream/southeast side of a large scale mid/upper level trough. This feature departs Tuesday night as the aforementioned large scale mid/upper level trough also advances eastward. The trough will also support a cold front which will move in from the northwest, but there will probably be and insufficient combo of moisture and lift for precip with the actual front.
345 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 High pressure extending into the area will move off to the east. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday night. Weak low pressure will track northeast along a nearly stationary front southeast of the area. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the northwest and push across the forecast area Tuesday night. Lows will be a bit warmer due to the clouds with readings only falling into the mid to upper 50s.
Training expected along plateau and extreme northern Tennessee adjacent to Kentucky with weak upper trough overhead through early afternoon. (Today and tonight) A weak trough of low pressure over the area will provide a better than normal chance of convection today and tonight.
359 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 There is a trough over eastern Canada into the Great Lakes with high pressure over the Mountain West into the southwestern portions of the Plains. An approaching wave associated with the main upper trough is bringing cloud cover to north central Kansas and isolated showers/sprinkles to southern Nebraska. High pressure will shift further east.
Fair weather will continue this afternoon through Tuesday morning under a high amplitude ridge of high pressure. In the meantime, a trough of low pressure will amplify to the west along the PNW coast. As Tuesday progresses, this trough will become negatively tilted, bringing moisture from the south, and energy from a jet streak aloft into the Northern Rockies. A strong cold front associated with this system will arrive in north- central Idaho on Tuesday afternoon and move to the northeast. Behind the cold front, expect temperatures to drop considerably.
(This evening through Tuesday night) Oppressive heat finally coming to an end as the upper level ridge that was over the central US continues to slide east and the eastern side of it erodes. In typical tropical cyclone fashion, the rain shield will be expanding during the late morning and early afternoon timeframe.
209 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Aviation Forecast concerns deal with a cold front moving through the cwa Tuesday.
/NEW/ /Today and Tomorrow/ Yesterday's cold front has brought some welcome changes this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to peak in the mid 90s for most, which is 10-15 degrees cooler than 48 hours ago.
The subtropical high pressure area's recent westward displacement has dessicated the air above northern Arizona and sent temperatures on an upward run. Models continue to agree on the arrival of a rather strong trough over the West Coast during the second half of this week. The introduction of this trough means our subtropical high will shift east, settling into a more favorable monsoonal placement.
Thanks to a southwesterly breeze ahead of a cold front, highs on Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer than today in the middle 80s. 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a ridge of high pressure extending from New England southwestward into the Ohio River Valley. while a cold front is poised to the north across Ontario/Manitoba. Clear skies and light winds beneath the ridge axis will ensure another cool night across central Illinois with overnight lows dipping into the middle to upper 50s. As the high shifts away from the region and the cold front approaches from the north, winds will become W/SW on Tuesday, which will help push highs into the middle 80s.
Overnight lows will be cooler and mostly in the mid to upper 60s. (Tuesday night through next Monday) An upper-level ridge will begin to slowly shift eastward across the southwestern US this early this week, and settling into West Central Texas by the later part of the week and into part of the weekend.
High pressure then builds into the region again and will dry out Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Cooler temperatures will continue again today. Our dewpoints are currently in the low to mid 70s, but they will continue to fall through the day as dry air moves into the Mid-South. By the weekend, heat looks to build back into the Mid-South with forecasted highs in the low to mid 90s. Humidity levels will moderate this afternoon and evening, behind a reinforcing cold front.
Tonight and Tuesday It has been a rather quiet day across eastern Idaho as weak ridging remains in place allowing for mainly clear skies and light winds. This will continue into the overnight as well but overnight lows will run on the warmer side of normal by some 5-10 degrees. Temperatures ahead of the front will warm significantly and we will likely climb into the lower 90s for highs in much of the lower valleys with mid to upper 80s in the mountain valley zones. Again, precip should be fairly limited and likely focused across the higher terrain, but it can't be ruled out down into the Snake Plain either.
and we've got plenty of moisture in the low and mid levels. Temperatures today and Tuesday will remain mild, with highs in the low to mid 80s. (Tuesday Night through next Monday) An upper trough axis and reinforcing push of cooler air will pass through the midstate Tuesday night, finally forcing moisture to move east.
Temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s.
The weak, upper low located over north-central MT moves north and weak ridging builds in for Tuesday, bringing temperatures into the low to mid 90s.
A ridge axis will continue to amplify northward into the region today, allowing for mostly clear skies and ushering in warmer air. Today will be the warmest day of the forecast period, and potentially for the rest of the summer, with a cooler and wetter pattern entering the region tomorrow. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the Owyhee Mountains, Southwest Highlands, and Western Twin Falls BLM for gusty conditions and low humidity tomorrow as a trough pushes through. Cold front passage between Tues 16z and 23z will bring scattered showers in SE Oregon with increasing thunderstorm potential as it moves eastward through Idaho.
1220 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (Today and tonight) With the upper ridge continuing, at least in the short term to retrograde westward, northerly mid-level flow and north surface winds will aid in keeping temperatures cooler today as well as helping to bring in some drier air. The impact of the lower dewpoints, along with clear skies, will really be felt tonight as it will allow temperatures to fall, in some cases, down into the upper 50s for overnight lows.
(This evening through Tuesday) Current 500 mb water vapor and RAP analysis shows a high pressure system sitting over Southern California. The high will remain stagnant through tomorrow as it becomes elongated over the eastern Pacific and Southern California. Another lull in precip tomorrow morning before a potential round of isolated showers and storms returns to portions of the High Plains tomorrow afternoon. If storms develop tomorrow, the high temperature forecast may be tricky.
/Issued 106 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023/ /Today and Tomorrow/ Yesterday's cold front has brought some welcome changes this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to peak in the mid 90s for most, which is 10-15 degrees cooler than 48 hours ago. Unfortunately, the upper- level ridge that has been responsible for the dreadful heat we've been dealing with will move back across the Central and Southern Plains by the end of the week.
258 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 * Potential for scattered showers and storms Tuesday along a cold front, a strong to severe storm can't be ruled out.
327 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Short Term/Marine Nice night tonight with increasing clouds toward Tuesday morning as a cold front approaches lower Michigan. This cold front will bring with it some shower and isolated thunder chances Tuesday though QPF remains on the low side and severe storm chances remain very low.
1248 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (Today and tonight) Temperatures will generally be cooler for most of the area today.
This includes not only surface moisture, but also deep moisture on the downstream/southeast side of a large scale mid/upper level trough. This feature departs Tuesday night as the aforementioned large scale mid/upper level trough also advances eastward. The trough will also support a cold front which will move in from the northwest, but there will probably be an insufficient combo of moisture and lift for precip with the actual front.
While no active weather is expected from the developing fair weather cumulus, they are a good indicator that at least some modest instability will be in the area ahead of a cold front that will cross into the area tonight. Coverage with this feature will likely be on the isolated side and affect mainly areas near the lakeshore where waters remain warmer, relative to air temps in the morning.
Tomorrow an upper trough associated with low pressure over the Hudson Bay is expected to swing through the Central Plains during the first half of the day, keeping us with mild summer temperatures for another day. The upper ridge is expected to push over the Tri- State area during the afternoon while high pressure near the surface sits over the Four Corners, keeping us dry.
1221 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (Today through Tuesday) The most recent surface analysis indicated a cold front draped across South Texas from roughly Lake Jackson to Three Rivers to Eagle Pass. Regardless, this weak cold front, combined with a brief burst of deeper tropical moisture, will generate isolated convection today and tonight, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Opted to tamp down highs into the low 100s today, aided by soils wetted from recent Tropical Storm Harold rains. Highs in the low 100s for Tuesday looked reasonable, and opted not to adjust these at all.
Surface analysis at 230pm shows a somewhat diffuse cold front extending from roughly Marshall, to St.
Weak high pressure was situated over western and central ND early this afternoon. The highest concentrations at the surface and aloft look to be late tonight through Tuesday morning, with smoke clearing and/or concentrations diminishing thereafter.
136 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 High pressure weakens as it moves in from the central Great Lakes today to northern Ohio through Tuesday.
Dry conditions set in for Tuesday as the ridge axis passes through. Temperatures will be warmer, peaking above normal. By Tuesday night a negatively tilted trough will extend from the northwestern US through Idaho and Montana.
The high res ensemble forecast CAMs members stamps were not very convincing.
1125 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 12z CAMs coming in are definitely stepping down their coverage of any potential storms today that could develop along the cold front that at 11am was roughly along a Redwood Falls to Little Falls line. Our only decent chance of rain for the period looks to arrive this afternoon as a trough and upstream jetstreak from central Canada push south. One or two weak thunderstorms could also occur given the non-zero CAPE in forecast soundings from surface temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s.
146 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 High pressure across the Great Lakes will persist into tonight. A cold front will cross the area on Tuesday night, reinforcing the cooler, dry conditions. A wedge of high pressure remains across the area tonight offering mostly clear sky conditions and light winds. As the mid level trof sharpens up on Tuesday the area remains between systems. Have introduced this chance into the grids and will continue to monitor as we move into reach of the high- resolution models.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) North to northeasterly 500mb flow will continue across the region as west TX remains on the eastern periphery of a ridge centered across the Desert Southwest. The subsidence attributed to this ridging will limit precipitation chances/coverage to some degree this afternoon and evening, though widely scattered showers and storms are expected to redevelop by around 21z due to a combination of relatively high moisture, lingering boundaries from yesterday's convection, and weak upslope flow in some locations. CAMs depict much of this activity developing to the south of I-20, though the higher terrain of SE NM should see some activity as well. Tuesday will see clearer skies and slightly warmer temperatures with highs generally ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s.
A series of lows coming from the Pacific will bring noticeably cooler temperatures to the region this week along with partly to mostly cloudy conditions.
632 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Current 500 mb water vapor and RAP analysis shows a high pressure system sitting over Southern California. The high will remain stagnant through tomorrow as it becomes elongated over the eastern Pacific and Southern California. Another lull in precip tomorrow morning before a potential round of isolated showers and storms returns to portions of the High Plains tomorrow afternoon. If storms develop tomorrow, the high temperature forecast may be tricky.
(Through Tuesday) High pressure will be east northeast of the region this afternoon, continuing the moist onshore flow.
952 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 High pressure extending into the area will move off to the east. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday night. A few high clouds will be possible at times tonight, but still expect mostly clear skies with weak high pressure and a dry airmass in place. Weak low pressure will track northeast along a nearly stationary front southeast of the area. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the northwest and push across the forecast area Tuesday night. Lows will be a bit warmer due to the clouds with readings only falling into the mid to upper 50s.
546 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) North to northeasterly 500mb flow will continue across the region as west TX remains on the eastern periphery of a ridge centered across the Desert Southwest. The subsidence attributed to this ridging will limit precipitation chances/coverage to some degree this afternoon and evening, though widely scattered showers and storms are expected to redevelop by around 21z due to a combination of relatively high moisture, lingering boundaries from yesterday's convection, and weak upslope flow in some locations. CAMs depict much of this activity developing to the south of I-20, though the higher terrain of SE NM should see some activity as well. Tuesday will see clearer skies and slightly warmer temperatures with highs generally ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s.
The GFS/ECMWF predict an upper level pattern that increasingly becomes conducive to subsidence over the CWA Tuesday/Tuesday night as the upper ridge builds over the southwestern CONUS.
Similar conditions are expected tomorrow as a deep area of low pressure approaches the PacNW. A fairly sharp trough associated with the low will force a ridge of high pressure to tilt over our area.
627 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 There is a trough over eastern Canada into the Great Lakes with high pressure over the Mountain West into the southwestern portions of the Plains. An approaching wave associated with the main upper trough is bringing cloud cover to north central Kansas and isolated showers/sprinkles to southern Nebraska. High pressure will shift further east.
Thanks to a southwesterly breeze ahead of a cold front, highs on Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer than today in the middle 80s. MJA 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a ridge of high pressure extending from New England southwestward into the Ohio River Valley. while a cold front is poised to the north across Ontario/Manitoba. Clear skies and light winds beneath the ridge axis will ensure another cool night across central Illinois with overnight lows dipping into the middle to upper 50s. As the high shifts away from the region and the cold front approaches from the north, winds will become W/SW on Tuesday, which will help push highs into the middle 80s.
Dry conditions set in for Tuesday, as the ridge axis passes through. Temperatures will be warmer, peaking above normal. By Tuesday night, a negatively tilted trough will extend from the northwestern US through Idaho and Montana.
639 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 * Potential for scattered showers and storms Tuesday along a cold front, a strong to severe storm can't be ruled out.
High pressure is overhead resulting in near record to record high temperatures and decreased thunderstorm chances today and tomorrow.
/NEW/ Update: Temperatures and dewpoints are as much as 10-15 degrees below their values at this time yesterday (and previous days) thanks to the arrival of slightly cooler and drier post-frontal air. -Stalley Previous Discussion: /Today and Tomorrow/ Yesterday's cold front has brought some welcome changes this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to peak in the mid 90s for most, which is 10-15 degrees cooler than 48 hours ago. Unfortunately, the upper- level ridge that has been responsible for the dreadful heat we've been dealing with will move back across the Central and Southern Plains by the end of the week.
A few locations are noting a little reduction in visibility over northern portions of the area, but so far the lowest is around 6 miles. Weak high pressure was situated over western and central ND early this afternoon. The highest concentrations at the surface and aloft look to be late tonight through Tuesday morning, with smoke clearing and/or concentrations diminishing thereafter.
The continued presence of a low-level inverted trough, upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints, and low-level convergence are feeding the convection, along with around 1000 J/kg of mean-layer CAPE. Activity will diminish in coverage with sunset, although ongoing convergence and lingering moisture may allow isolated activity to continue well into the evening, with a shower or two lingering past midnight along the southeast ridges. Drier air building in from the west will allow for low temperatures in the upper 50s in the far western CWA, with readings in the mid 60s remain likely to the east in the higher moisture/higher cloud cover area.
739 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Aviation Nice night tonight with increasing clouds toward Tuesday morning as a cold front approaches lower Michigan. This cold front will bring with it some shower and isolated thunder chances Tuesday though QPF remains on the low side and severe storm chances remain very low.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 60s in the north to the low 70s elsewhere. Between now and 6pm, sufficient surface heating and some supportive instability looks to sustain some brief gusty conditions of 30-40mph up to the Highway 84 corridor. In the West, surface ridging begins to build back into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Temperatures are on the downward trend currently in the mid- upper 70s and will continue to cool off reaching a low just before sunrise in the lower 70s/upper 60s.
632 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (This evening through Tuesday night) Oppressive heat finally coming to an end as the upper level ridge that was over the central US continues to slide east and the eastern side of it erodes. In typical tropical cyclone fashion, the rain shield will be expanding during the late morning and early afternoon timeframe.
Also cannot rule out fog to the west, where cooler temps will be observed. Drier air building in from the west will allow for low temperatures in the mid and upper 50s in the far western CWA, with readings in the mid 60s remain likely to the east in the higher moisture/higher cloud cover area.