Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Most vigorous storms are to the north & coming into a cooler/more stable boundary layer. With high deep moisture, clouds & moist return flow/boundary layer, kept near persistence with lows near normals in the low 70s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 70s. High temperatures Thursday will be in the low 90s for most of the area. The persistently strong subtropical ridge is forecast to remain anchored over AZ/NM/TX while cyclonic flow over the northeast CONUS battles with the ridge. JAN & HKS have the highest chances of lowered cigs/vsby to IFR/MVFR, with brief gusty winds up to 20-30mph.
An upper level trough is slowly settling over the west coast and pushing the ridge off to the east. Most areas are 3 to 5 degrees cooler than they were yesterday. Tonight the marine layer is expected to slightly deepen as the trough moves onshore. Thursday temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler again.
845 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A cold front will cross the region tonight. Cooler weather will filter in behind the front with highs only in the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday through the weekend.
522 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023 Massive western NOAM ridge will slowly shift east in the period with active NW flow developing over the region.
With the weak upper trough axis expected to shift east of the area on Thursday, and higher PWAT air shunted to the east as well, a slightly drier boundary layer is expected.
Still expecting drier and cooler conditions for the end of the week with highs only topping off in the 70s for Thursday. Wagner (Issued 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023) Tonight through Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along outflow boundaries, the lake breeze convergence zone, and the true cold front that is lingering to our northwest. Storms will clear from west to east across the area early this evening into the overnight hours, with a few lingering post- frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms possible before exiting the region completely Thursday morning as high pressure moves in. Cooler conditions are expected, with high temperatures in the upper 70s expected. Going into the overnight hours, clear skies are expected, with temperatures dropping into the lower 50s across much of the area.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 70s. High temperatures Thursday will be in the low 90s for most of the area. The persistently strong subtropical ridge is forecast to remain anchored over AZ/NM/TX while cyclonic flow over the northeast CONUS battles with the ridge. JAN & HKS have the highest chances of lowered cigs/vsby to IFR/MVFR, with brief gusty winds up to 20-30mph.
911 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A weak trough both at the surface and aloft will remain overhead through Thursday while high pressure remains over the Atlantic.
821 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase into this evening mainly west of route 31 ahead of a slow moving cold front.
With the weak upper trough axis expected to be east of the area for much of Thursday, and higher PWAT air being shunted to the east as a result, a slightly drier boundary layer is expected.
639 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) A weak trough continues across the area leaving us open to the possibility of convection tonight through Thursday.
644 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A trough is positioned over Hudson Bay into the upper Mississippi River Valley. This activity and associated cloud cover has kept temperatures in the lower 70s to lower 80s other than the northwest corner of the state that was in the mid 60s this afternoon. Below seasonal normal temperatures are anticipated again on Thursday with afternoon values in the lower 80s which is 10 degrees below typical.
635 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A few strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. After the cold front moves through Thursday, cooler temperatures and drier air will provide a brief relief before a warming trend begins. The aforementioned cold front will stall out and leave diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms possible each day of the forecast period.
Key Messages: * Cooler temperatures are expected for the remainder of this week with highs mostly in the 70s.
A weak low pressure system over northern California has increased mid-level moisture across southern Oregon which as allowed a few high-based thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain of southern Harney County. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon in SE Oregon and the high terrain of Idaho.
Run to run guidance has been exceptionally jumpy, reflecting the high uncertainty.
PWB A few strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. After the cold front moves through Thursday, cooler temperatures and drier air will provide a brief relief before a warming trend begins. The aforementioned cold front will stall out and leave diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms possible each day of the forecast period.
A broad trough will amplify over the Great Lakes region, helping to shunt the current upper-level ridge ewd. Buoyancy will be on the weaker side and shear will be minimal, both of which will limit intensity of any storms that develop on Thu afternoon along the pre-frontal trough. Increasing cloud cover Thu evening/Fri will limit heating ahead of the cold front, which will in turn limit convective intensity. The system's cold front will advance ewd Fri, bringing an end to any precipitation on Fri afternoon and helping to shunt deeper moisture ewd for a brief period Fri night. A mean ern-CONUS trough and wrn-CONUS ridge will remain the dominant atmospheric features through much of the foreseeable wx future, suggesting frequent increased probability for rain showers, particularly during the afternoon and evening each day.
931 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A cold front moves through the region Thursday, bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Dry and conditions and well above normal temperatures expected again today before shower/thunderstorm chances increase later this afternoon and overnight as a cold front crosses the region. A mean ern-CONUS trough and wrn-CONUS ridge will remain the dominant atmospheric features through much of the foreseeable wx future, suggesting frequent increased probability for rain showers, particularly during the afternoon and evening each day.
1001 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023 Massive western NOAM ridge will slowly shift east in the period with active NW flow developing over the region.
332 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Latest HREF has weak surface based CAPE (250-500 J/kg) across far southern portions of the forecast area this afternoon on the backside of cold front. Otherwise, partly sunny and cooler with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s.
1154 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A trough is positioned over Hudson Bay into the upper Mississippi River Valley. This activity and associated cloud cover has kept temperatures in the lower 70s to lower 80s other than the northwest corner of the state that was in the mid 60s this afternoon. Below seasonal normal temperatures are anticipated again on Thursday with afternoon values in the lower 80s which is 10 degrees below typical.
That pattern featuring a western CONUS ridge, and downstream eastern CONUS trof.
Clouds moving overhead should keep temperatures on the higher side of NBM guidance, therefore, lows have been forecast to remain in the lower 70s throughout most of northern AL and southern middle TN with a few spots getting into the upper 60s.
Most vigorous storms are to the north & coming into a cooler/more stable boundary layer. With high deep moisture, clouds & moist return flow/boundary layer, kept near persistence with lows near normals in the low 70s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 70s. High temperatures Thursday will be in the low 90s for most of the area. The persistently strong subtropical ridge is forecast to remain anchored over AZ/NM/TX while cyclonic flow over the northeast CONUS battles with the ridge.
In the upper levels a large broad trough covered much of northern and central portions of North America.
1245 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase into this evening mainly west of route 31 ahead of a slow moving cold front.
1101 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A cold front will cross the region tonight. Cooler weather will filter in behind the front with highs only in the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday through the weekend.
Much drier high pressure is building into Upper Michigan early this morning with mostly clear skies already across the western half as of 2AM. Expecting these areas to dip into the lower to mid 40s, while temperatures stay in the lower 50s closer to the Superior shoreline. Even the lowest of the guidance still keeps temperatures in the 40s, so overachieving and temps falling low enough for frost development isn't expected.
In the near term, a weak cold front is making its way southeast across srn Illinois and se Missouri early this morning.
What is more clear is that the moist upslope flow will result in storms developing across the higher terrain of Colorado.
(Today and tonight) The upper pattern remains similar to that of 24 hours ago with the forecast area on the northeastern periphery of a ridge centered over southern New Mexico.
A surface convergence boundary along with a theta-e ridge axis will move into the Plateau counties which will be a focus for convection this afternoon.
1247 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 (This evening through Thursday) A very moist, almost tropical airmass remains in place in the low levels across much of the southeast. A ridge at 500mb is currently centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with mean westerly flow across a vast majority of the atmospheric profile. Muggy conditions are expected overnight tonight, and have risen low temperatures slightly to match similar to what we observed for lows last night in the low to mid 70s. Normal summertime hot and humid conditions will continue as highs top out in the lower 90s.
High temperatures are generally forecast in the low to mid 90s this afternoon with heat indices generally in the 95 to 105 degree range. Low temperatures overnight are forecast in the low to mid 70s.
Cooler high temperatures will occur through the weekend.
(Tonight through Wednesday) The pattern is expected to remain very active through the weekend with the forecast area remaining on the northeastern side of upper ridge anchored over the Desert Southwest.
315 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Cooler than normal conditions will be in place today and continue through the weekend.
344 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Key Messages: -Upper level trough continues to be stationary across the Hudson Bay providing a NW flow across the Northern Plains. -Dry and warmer conditions throughout day, with a chance for showers and storms along and north of the International border.
311 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Surface analysis shows a cold front stretching from around Chicago through St. Radar composite showed very little activity along and ahead of this boundary despite plenty of low-level moisture ahead of it with dew points in the low 70s. After collaborating with neighboring WFOs decided to scale back PoPs for mostly scattered to isolated activity today with the highest PoPs east of I-65 towards the I-75 corridor as the cold front works across central KY into eastern KY later this afternoon and evening. It will remain muggy with dew points in the low 70s and highs in the upper 80s to just shy of 90. Overnight, drier air will work in behind the departing cold front and precipitation chances diminish after sunset. Dew points will fall into the low/mid 60s with overnight lows similar.
1259 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) A weak trough continues across the area leaving us open to the possibility of convection tonight through Thursday.
Broad upper-level ridging stretches across the region as weak surface ridging has started to shift a little farther east and south. Slightly cooler "feels-like" temps with more scattered to numerous storms.
Much drier high pressure is building into Upper Michigan early this morning with mostly clear skies already across the western half as of 2AM.
244 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Quiet, cooler and less humid conditions will be seen today and tonight as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
With a cooler start to the morning, a few areas could see near record setting temperatures this morning.
The center of the high should be right over Wisconsin tonight, resulting in great conditions for a cool night.
Morning clouds and precipitation may still keep highs from reaching their full potential with values topping out in the low to mid 80s. The effective front may slip far enough south to keep the higher probabilities for additional rainfall further south on Sat night but some low pops were maintained given the uncertainty. Northwest mid/upper flow is progged to prevail through the period with a persistent mid/upper trough over western Ontario and an upper level ridge situated over the southwest.
Along the southerly periphery of the ridge - within the forecast area - cooler and drier air has been filtering in. Along the outer edge of the ridge, there is a decent pool of instability, so the MCS currently ongoing across southern Kansas should stay in that pool of instability, carrying the bulk of the rain to the south and west of the forecast area this morning.
658 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 (Today through Friday) Alabama will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over Texas. Most areas will see highs in the lower 90s today and Friday with heat indices 95-100.
Otherwise, the MCS will exit this morning and reinforce the cold front southward with cooler weather for most locations with afternoon highs in the 80s deg F. The potential exception will be across southwest Oklahoma and north Texas where forecast highs are still in the 90s deg F; however, there is the potential the effective cold front may push farther southwest than forecast (which often occurs with MCSs).
Weak upper level trough will persist over the Eastern Pacific into the weekend keeping a west to southwest onshore flow pattern over NorCal.
A summertime surface cold front will approach mid state region from northwest by early evening hours tonight before pushing southeastward into locations generally south of I-40 Corridor by Friday morning and then continuing to push slowly southward, positioned near TN/AL Border region by late Friday afternoon. Some drier air to the north might try to work into our area, but high temperatures on Friday will just be a degree cooler or so at best.
The best chances (about 20-40 percent) will be up in the higher elevations of the Central Mountains, Eastern Highlands, and Southern Hills.
543 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Cooler than normal conditions will be in place today and continue through the weekend.
In the near term, a weak cold front is making its way southeast across srn Illinois and se Missouri early this morning. Weak high pressure will pass across our region early Friday.
That pattern featuring a western CONUS ridge, and downstream eastern CONUS trof. A cold front will be working from north to south through the CWA at the start of the period Friday evening. The end result across the Northern Plains will be northwest flow aloft, and occasional weak cold frontal passages with limited opportunity for any kind of widespread/meaningful precipitation.
The western extent of a fractured ridge axis will reach west across South Florida or the Keys for the next several days.
532 AM MDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Upper trof has shifted east of the forecast area with northwest flow over the northern Plains. Northerly winds behind low on Friday will bring cooler air into the area, so dropped highs over northwestern SD and along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills. Upper ridge builds over the weekend, then gradually flattens by midweek, allowing temperatures to return to seasonal normals.
326 AM MDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Upper trof has shifted east of the forecast area with northwest flow over the northern Plains. Northerly winds behind low on Friday will bring cooler air into the area, so dropped highs over northwestern SD and along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills. Upper ridge builds over the weekend, then gradually flattens by midweek, allowing temperatures to return to seasonal normals.
In the upper levels a large broad trough covered much of northern and central portions of North America. On Friday, the aforementioned Canadian cold front will continue to make it's way south through the forecast area. Timing of the cold front will likely play a significant role in the extent of convection and it's severity. Areas north and west of here will see the cold front pass too early in the day for significant destabilization ahead of the front. If a rotating updraft could maintain itself ahead of the cold front quarter sized hail would also be possible.
Much drier high pressure is building into Upper Michigan early this morning with mostly clear skies already across the western half as of 2AM. Expecting these areas to dip into the lower to mid 40s, while temperatures stay in the lower 50s closer to the Superior shoreline. Even the lowest of the guidance still keeps temperatures in the 40s, so overachieving and temps falling low enough for frost development isn't expected. Slightly warmer air is expected Friday as flow becomes more southerly. Meanwhile, broad mid-level troughing is expected to shift east into northern Ontario/Hudson Bay/James Bay into Friday.
A second disturbance in the form of a weak trough will help trigger showers and thunderstorms across the northern portion of the area. Temperatures will be a little cooler than what has been experienced lately (courtesy of cloud cover and rain). Expecting highs to be in the low to mid 90s over the next two days. While temperatures will be a bit cooler, heat index values will still be above 100 degrees for much of the area (though below Heat Advisory criteria).
619 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper pattern remains similar to that of 24 hours ago with the forecast area on the northeastern periphery of a ridge centered over southern New Mexico.
* A slight risk for severe weather is anticipated late tonight with a disturbance rolling off the high plains.
527 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Latest HREF has weak surface based CAPE (250-500 J/kg) across far southern portions of the forecast area this afternoon on the backside of cold front. Otherwise, partly sunny and cooler with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. This combined with a developing warm front, sufficient instability, and shear, could generate showers and storms over western Missouri and spread east through the forecast area Friday afternoon/night.
(Today through Friday) Alabama will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over Texas. Most areas will see highs in the lower 90s today and Friday with heat indices 95-100.
Ridging is still in place but there has been just enough of a weakness in the ridge, along with a continued surge of moisture that has allowed rain chances to remain elevated in the afternoon hours. Not much in the way of any changes expected on Friday as we should be well into the transition to northwest flow with the ridge in the Gulf pushing south and west.
Added coastal flood advisory for the lower Cape Fear River at Downtown Wilmington for this afternoon. Lows tonight will fall to the lower 70s.
Quiet, cooler and less humid conditions will be seen today and tonight as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
High pressure has allowed for winds to become calm especially in the low-lying areas, and visibilities have dropped as low as 1/2 mile in Hibbing and surrounding areas. However, a scattered to perhaps occasionally broken layer of cumulus clouds are likely to develop by the afternoon with enough mixing in the lower atmosphere.
A weak upper level trof was supporting waning convection over the forecast area that had become outflow dominated. Temperatures will be considerably cooler today behind the cold front. A large upper low will become stationary across the Canadian interior in the vicinity of Hudson Bay. This system will eventually amplify deeper into the CONUS and help bring cooler weather to the Upper Great Lakes region.
628 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) Upper high pressure will remain centered over southern New Mexico for the next couple of days.
Showers and storms along/ahead of the front should depart most of the area by mid or late afternoon, with the exception being the higher terrain to the east where development could persist into evening hours with help from post- frontal upslope flow.
Upper level ridging will begin to rebuild across west/central Texas tomorrow increasing subsidence over the northwestern portions of our region keeping the rain chances to a minimum. But don't be grabbing those sweaters just yet, as the increased sunshine and less precipitation tomorrow will allow most of the region to creep back up into the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows will continue to be mild tonight and Friday night with most spots dipping down into the mid 70s with the immediate coast staying in the low 80s.
Also beginning to see weak development over the high terrain to the east. A mean ern-CONUS trough and wrn-CONUS ridge will remain the dominant atmospheric features through much of the foreseeable wx future, suggesting frequent increased probability for rain showers, particularly during the afternoon and evening each day. The one exception will be ZZV where a trough is slowly pushing east and will be an area where showers and thunderstorms will develop with the days heating.
Looking at the big picture, the ridge aloft over FLorida continues to weaken and flatten as a mid level short wave trough slides east across the deep south. At the same time, surface ridging is shifting a little farther east and south.
Low pressure will move through the Rockies and into central SD later tonight. With the compact nature of the system and the decent warm frontal forcing ahead of the main wave, localized heavy rain will be the main threat.
112 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper pattern remains similar to that of 24 hours ago with the forecast area on the northeastern periphery of a ridge centered over southern New Mexico.
Also beginning to see weak development over the high terrain to the east. A mean ern-CONUS trough and wrn-CONUS ridge will remain the dominant atmospheric features through much of the foreseeable wx future, suggesting frequent increased probability for rain showers, particularly during the afternoon and evening each day.
With high pressure and cooler air aloft remaining overhead the rest of this afternoon through tonight, expect temps to be much cooler in comparison to what we saw this past Fourth of July. Once it does, the clear skies overhead should allow low temps to bottom out to the low 40s in some of the interior areas. Expecting these areas to dip into the lower to mid 40s, while temperatures stay in the lower 50s closer to the Superior shoreline. Even the lowest of the guidance still keeps temperatures in the 40s, so overachieving and temps falling low enough for frost development isn't expected. Slightly warmer air is expected Friday as flow becomes more southerly. Meanwhile, broad mid-level troughing is expected to shift east into northern Ontario/Hudson Bay/James Bay into Friday.
220 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2023 AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Today through tonight: Daytime heating has lead to cumulus development and a few storms initiating west of Petroleum county in the higher terrain, as well as in Dawson county. Friday through Friday night: Most thunderstorm activity that occurs will be around the higher terrain of central MT, such as the Little Rockies within the GGW CWA.
Otherwise, broken diurnal cu and cooler conditions throughout the region. Dry weather is then likely tonight into Friday as high pressure builds into the area.
Thus have dropped lows to the lower end of the guidance spectrum. Our airmass will return to more seasonal normals by this time after the weekend ridge departs.
Look for lows to be slightly warmer than last night, generally in the 50s.