Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
203 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (Through Tuesday) The region remains sandwiched between a strong, persistent ridge nosing in from the west and a broad trough with its axis centered along the Eastern Seaboard. The spotty nature of the higher-end values precludes issuing a Heat Advisory at this time. Strong daytime instability coupled with some forced ascent seabreezes, the aforementioned trough, and slightly enhanced mid-level winds (25-30 kts) will be supportive of an isolated severe weather threat.
At the surface, a weak low pressure is located across east central GA along an old stalled frontal boundary. On the SE side, near the low and isolated convection, dewpoints are in the lower to middle 70s. Models are continue to prog weak low pressure waves moving along the old front through tomorrow. On the south side of the front, the airmass will remain moist with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. However, some scattered activity is possible across the higher terrain in the northeast portion of the CWA. The higher res models are hinting at an MCS type feature dropping southeast late tomorrow/early Wednesday.
Upper ridge over the central Plains today will gradually shift south and weaken through the short term period. Tonight, with the ridge axis still nearby expect to receive only a glancing blow from thunderstorms moving off the Front Range into western Nebraska.
Better chances will exist late tonight-early tmrw, as the LLJ strengthens across the warm sector upon warm frontogenesis to our west. This will peak pops across the Ozarks/SEMO, with smaller chances the farther east you go away from the warm front. A similar scenario then unfolds in the ensuing 24 hour period, with a brief late day lull followed by another ridge topping ripple of energy that rides southeastward/across the PAH FA overtop the aforementioned warm frontal boundary. The scenario unfolds again Wednesday night, although by then, the ridge has flattened for a more purely northwest to southeast flow aloft over the PAH FA.
434 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Cooler high pressure builds in behind a cold front through mid week. The next cold front and trough approaches at the end of the week. Ridging begins building Eward toward the upper Gulf states overnight, which starts to shunt troughing overhead offshore.
438 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Further amplification of the North American western ridge/eastern trough pattern will continue today. But, by daybreak, expect widespread temperatures in the upper 40s/low 50s as the ridge axis continues its eastward shift. As a result, trended toward the low to mid 80s across the west/interior west and southernmost portions of the forecast area. Meanwhile, the remainder of Upper Michigan will also reach the upper 70s/low 80s, coolest along the lakeshores in the low to mid 70s.
Considerably drier air above this shallower saturated layer should prevent anything more than that from occurring, though, so have capped PoPs at 10% given the low probability of these specks of precipitation amounting to anything measurable. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures in the low to mid 80s can be expected today with a weak lake breeze eventually materializing along the Illinois lakeshore and pushing slightly inland later this afternoon. Wednesday's high temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than today's highs, though our southwestern counties could be an exception to that if the more opaque cloud cover from the convection to our west/southwest ends up stunting solar insolation a good bit there.
302 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 The weather in the short term period will be dominated by a large ridge of high pressure that will be sprawled over the region for the next couple of day. The pattern will begin to shift toward the end of the day on Wednesday, as a trough of low pressure moves out of the central Plains and across the mid Mississippi Valley and into the western Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Highs today and tomorrow should rise into the low to mid 80s, while tonights lows fall into very pleasant values in the upper 50s and lower 60s. This will occur as the mid-level ridge over the central US begins shifting west, resulting in the Ohio Valley getting into the convective ring of fire, so to speak, or seeing rounds of MCS activity.
Expect temperatures a degree or two warmer inland today which has once again prompted the issuance of a heat advisory, this time for most of the area.
215 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Hot and dry conditions are expected today ahead of the arrival of monsoonal moisture Wednesday through the weekend, gradually introducing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast, while also promoting cooler temperatures through the remainder of the week. Persistent upper-level ridging begins to stretch out over much of CONUS, as recognized by cluster analysis through the next several days and continues to supply westerly to southwesterly flow aloft across the region. This, with the onset of several disturbances, will aid in trending cooler temperatures across much of the state; some much needed relief to the well above seasonal temperatures experienced the last few days.
331 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Cooler and drier through mid week. Key Points: * Drier and slightly cooler temperatures today. A building ridge aloft and at the surface will keep the region dry through tonight. This will be one more day with lower dewpoints although temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80's in the lowlands, though this is still average and should feel somewhat comfortable.
In general, the next couple of days will be warmer as the mid-level ridge moves over the central CONUS.
Low temps will be slightly warmer than last night due to a little higher dewpoints. Cronce (Issued 254 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023) Tonight through Tuesday night: Diurnal cumulus, light winds, and smoke will be the story for the rest of the afternoon as high pressure is the main influence on our weather today. Winds will shift overnight to a more southerly direction as the high moves east towards New England, but should remain rather light. Tuesday will be another quiet weather day as mid-level ridging looks to remain in place throughout the day. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 80s.
Under a northerly boundary layer flow, dew points fell into the low 60s yesterday and after looking at the amount of dry air available in today's forecast soundings, we could be looking at dew points into the 50s.
The main factor behind our dry and quiet weather has been broad high pressure centered over Canada with influences stretching down into our region. This high will steadily push eastward through the day, resulting in some slight veering of surface winds (N/NNE to NE/ENE), but overall today will be very similar to yesterday in terms of temperatures and comfortable humidity levels as low-level thicknesses remain virtually unchanged.
/NEW/ /Overnight through Wednesday/ Heat and fire weather concerns will continue to be at the forefront of the forecast through mid week as a mid level ridge drifts ever closer to North Texas later today. This feature will spread westward under the southern periphery of the ridge axis later today and could generate an isolated shower/storm mainly across our Central TX counties. A persistent upper-level ridge parked across the Southwest is expected to shift east, settling across North and Central Texas by mid-week.
(Today and tonight) Today should be the peak of our heat for a while as an upper high lingers over the western Red River Valley before shoving farther east in the days ahead. Water vapor imagery shows this area is already seeing a steady uptick in mid/upper level moistening from monsoonal moisture along the western periphery of the upper ridge.
1222 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Not too much of a change in the weather pattern as the 597 dam upper level ridge currently positioned over the Texas Panhandle. With modest height increases noted across the CWA due to the eastward shift in the center of the high, allowing for slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon. The upper level ridge will continue to track to the east, positioning itself near the Red River Valley by Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday looks to be one of the hotter days of the week with increased thickness values and the center of the high dominating over north Texas. Monsoonal moisture rotating around the center of the ridge will promote thunderstorm development in southeastern New Mexico tomorrow afternoon.
This pattern will be dominated by a strong 500mb ridge centered over Texas and extending eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The influence of the upper level ridge over the area will also keep overall rain chances lower than average through the short term period. DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/KG is supportive of this higher wet microburst potential.
In the upper levels, broad ridging is holding over the southern plains, while a trough slowly swings through eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS. At the surface, the subtropical ridge remains well east of Florida, keeping light westerly flow in place today.
1037 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Upper-level analysis shows broad ridging over the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with afternoon convection popping up over the Rockies. Towards the end of the week, a stronger low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures and increasing chances for rain.
The gradual warming and drying trend will continue tomorrow as high pressure continues to build into the region from the southeast. High pressure remains anchored over the central United States for the next several days.
258 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (Issued 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023) Today through Wednesday Night: High pressure will gradually slide eastward today with very little activity in the upper levels and should largely keep the region fairly dry through the day today. With the high pushing east we will see a return to light southerly flow which should aid in our ability to get temperatures back into the mid 80s. This will continue into Wednesday when southerly flow will strengthen a bit as the high pushes fully out of the region.
This has kept temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler with readings currently in the mid 80s for areas north of I-70. Coupling in dew point values in the 60s to low 70s is resulting in heat index values from the upper 90s to the low 100s. By Wednesday, the midlevel ridge will begin to regress south and southwest, bringing stronger midlevel flow across the forecast area.
128 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 A weak cold front will remain just south of the area through Tuesday. High pressure will then return by the middle and latter part of the week. The cold front is ill defined, but it might be generally near where the convection is occurring, and this would put it into parts of southeast Georgia before daybreak. There is a subtle change in air mass that will occur overnight as high pressure builds out of the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes. High pressure will build from the northwest on Tuesday while a weak front remains stalled just south of the area.
102 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Broad high pressure will keep the area dry through much of the week.
For Tuesday and Wednesday, high pressure will be in control across the northeastern United States, resulting in quiet and fair weather. Max temperatures today will stay in the lower to middle 70s, again notching a day with below normal temps. Wednesday's highs will be in the middle to upper 70s as high pressure shifts east of the area, and southerly flow returns. 345 AM Update: High pressure continues to depart to the east Wednesday night.
1250 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues As an upper-level ridge continues to have a strangle hold over South Texas, hot and humid conditions are expected to continue. Heat index values are expected to be a degree or two warmer than today resulting in more of an area requiring a heat advisory, but due to low confidence in the dew point forecast for tomorrow, opted not to issue an advisory at this time and have the next forecast shift overnight reevaluate after the latest model run.
205 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Drier high pressure to our north will control our weather into mid week. A stationary front to our south will move north as a warm front in the second half of the week bringing a return of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures are topping out in the lower to mid 90s, with heat index values forecast in the upper 90s to the mid and upper 100s. Highs are forecast in the upper 80s to upper 90s Tuesday and in the lower 100s Wednesday.
209 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Satellite imagery shows upper ridge axis over eastern Montana and the high plains while monsoon moisture spreads northward from the southwest. However, the mountains and areas east of Rosebud County (east of a surface trof where moisture remains elevated) could still see isolated thunderstorms late today into the early evening. The upper ridge will still prevail over the Rockies Wednesday, but models continue to advertise a strong push of moisture and short wave energy within the southerly monsoonal flow.
Ridging will build a bit across the state today. Temperatures will be generally close to normal, with cooler temperatures across the south where more cloud cover will be found.
349 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Broad high pressure will keep the area dry through much of the week.
Any severe chances will be on the low side with the better instability axis remaining through NE.
/Issued 1138 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023/ /Overnight through Wednesday/ Heat and fire weather concerns will continue to be at the forefront of the forecast through mid week as a mid level ridge drifts ever closer to North Texas later today. This feature will spread westward under the southern periphery of the ridge axis later today and could generate an isolated shower/storm mainly across our Central TX counties.
(Today through Wednesday) Expansive 500mb ridge will be at its strongest today and combine with sufficient humidity to warrant a heat advisory for Brooks and the eastern 3 coastal counties. Rain chances are close to zero as subsidence increases and pwats lower ahead of an weak mid-level disturbance rotating around the eastern periphery of the ridge. Wednesday may be our best chance for rain as deterministic models continue to show an inverted trough moving across NE Mexico from the Gulf tomorrow afternoon. Added moisture, pwats increasing near 2 inches, the proximity of the trough and the sea breeze may be enough to ignite isolated showers and thunderstorms.
203 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 High pressure builds into the area and will remain in control of the weather pattern through Wednesday.
High pressure over the Panhandles has brought a moist southerly flow over northern Arizona with widespread showers and thunderstorms developing. The high remains in nearly stationary through Tuesday before starting to slide to the south late Tuesday into Wednesday. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday but with the high settling to the south and becoming more elongated along the international border, the moist flow will decrease.
1202 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Latest CAMS are indicating a few isolated showers ahead of a larger cluster of storms riding along a 597 dam ridge. High temperatures will range from the low 80s across the northern portion of the CWA to the mid 90s in the southern portion of the CWA. DNM NW flow continues to dominate weather patterns as the ridge continues to be centered just west of the region.
332 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through midweek, leading to dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. A warmer and more humid airmass will return toward the end of the workweek into the weekend, bringing with it renewed chances for showers and storms. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s.
RAH (Issued 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023) Today through Wednesday Night: High pressure will gradually slide eastward today with very little activity in the upper levels and should largely keep the region fairly dry through the day today. With the high pushing east we will see a return to light southerly flow which should aid in our ability to get temperatures back into the mid 80s. This will continue into Wednesday when southerly flow will strengthen a bit as the high pushes fully out of the region.
545 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Slightly cooler temperatures are in store today as the upper area of high pressure moves into the Ark-La-Tex region by this evening.
544 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level ridge continues it's gradual shift eastward, leading to another dry day with another slight increase in temperatures.
The Florida Keys remains in a quasi-col region with a low to mid level trough situated across the Eastern Seaboard. On either side of this feature are two anticyclones, one across the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the other across the western North Atlantic. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower Keys the remainder of the morning hours. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges. From synopsis, weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward across the Bahamas and into the Keys will maintain light breezes across the Keys coastal waters through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend.
551 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 (Today and tonight) More heat awaits today as an upper high lingers over the western Red River Valley before shoving farther east in the days ahead. Water vapor imagery shows this area is already seeing a steady uptick in mid/upper level moistening from monsoonal moisture along the western periphery of the upper ridge.
Our current upper level pattern is characterized by being between a trough over western Canada and a broad ridge over the southwest and Rocky Mountain portions of the country.
(Today through Wednesday Night ) Hot and humid conditions look to continue for the short term period as an upper ridge centered to the west of AR slowly wobbles closer to the state through Wed. This will keep slightly cooler/drier condtions across the NERN portion of AR through this afternoon. to the low 90s to around 100 further W/SW. Cannot forget about some potential convection across NERN sections through mid afternoon on the periphery of the upper ridge. As the upper ridge wobbles closer to AR on Wed.
645 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Cooler and drier through mid week. Key Points: * Drier and slightly cooler temperatures today. A building ridge aloft and at the surface will keep the region dry through tonight. This will be one more day with lower dewpoints although temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80's in the lowlands, though this is still average and should feel somewhat comfortable.
High pressure over the Intermountain West will gradually build northwestward towards the Pacific Northwest, which will result in temperatures warming back up to above average levels later this week.
High pressure nudges closer to our region late week with above average temperatures expected by the weekend. (Today and tonight) Central California remains along the western periphery of expansive mid-upper ridging encompassing much of the interior west and southern Great Plains. With troughing to our north the upper jet will extend across the Bay Area with southwest flow aloft transporting periodic moisture and providing scattered to broken high level clouds. Some deepening is likely over the next 24 hours as the upper trough impinges on our area from the north, with breezy northwest winds transporting a cool maritime airmass inland. Expect cooler temperatures by a few degrees across the board today, with 60s to lower 70s along the coast and bays, with 80s to near 90 for the warmest inland spots.
723 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 The weather in the short term period will be dominated by a large ridge of high pressure that will be sprawled over the region for the next couple of day. The pattern will begin to shift toward the end of the day on Wednesday, as a trough of low pressure moves out of the central Plains and across the mid Mississippi Valley and into the western Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Highs today and tomorrow should rise into the low to mid 80s, while tonights lows fall into very pleasant values in the upper 50s and lower 60s. This will occur as the mid-level ridge over the central US begins shifting west, resulting in the Ohio Valley getting into the convective ring of fire, so to speak, or seeing rounds of MCS activity.
Hot and dry conditions are expected today ahead of the arrival of monsoonal moisture Wednesday through the weekend, gradually introducing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast, while also promoting cooler temperatures through the remainder of the week. Persistent upper-level ridging begins to stretch out over much of CONUS, as recognized by cluster analysis through the next several days and continues to supply westerly to southwesterly flow aloft across the region. This, with the onset of several disturbances, will aid in trending cooler temperatures across much of the state; some much needed relief to the well above seasonal temperatures experienced the last few days.
Our inherited Flood Watch for this afternoon and evening for much of southeast Wyoming east of a Douglas to Laramie line, and for the western counties of the Nebraska Panhandle looks on track as the models indicate a pronounced 850/700 mb theta-e ridge axis extending north to south across western Nebraska this afternoon with decent low level convergence noted along the Wyoming-Nebraska state line. Maximum temperatures will be somewhat cooler due to extensive cloud cover and precipitation coverage.
Very weak flow in the lower half of the atmosphere will promote very slow-moving storms with PWATs exceeding 1.
755 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Broad high pressure will keep the area dry through much of the week.
Today through Wednesday night: Ridge with its axis placed over Montana keeps a dry airmass in place. From about Wednesday/Wednesday night ensembles suggest either a disturbance running up from the south, or one running up the west edge of the ridge over the area will allow for at least some increase in clouds and this is reflected with an increase of clouds down over the far southeast portion of the forecast area mostly associated with the moisture approaching from the south.
357 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023 The strong ridge of high pressure remains in place, with small, almost imperceptible disturbances riding up and around the ridge axis. Temperatures will also cool slightly with the suppression of the ridge. High pressure remains in control.
(Today and tonight) The upper level ridge continues it's gradual shift eastward, leading to another dry day with another slight increase in temperatures.
Look for high temps to reach the lower 90s with negligible heat index values.
630 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 High pressure builds into the area and will remain in control of the weather pattern through Wednesday.
623 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through midweek, leading to dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. A warmer and more humid airmass will return toward the end of the workweek into the weekend, bringing with it renewed chances for showers and storms. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s.
755 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Further amplification of the North American western ridge/eastern trough pattern will continue today. But, by daybreak, expect widespread temperatures in the upper 40s/low 50s as the ridge axis continues its eastward shift. As a result, trended toward the low to mid 80s across the west/interior west and southernmost portions of the forecast area. Meanwhile, the remainder of Upper Michigan will also reach the upper 70s/low 80s, coolest along the lakeshores in the low to mid 70s.