Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Discussion: Early this morning, WV and upper air analysis places a closed upper low across the Great Lakes with the Southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley under weakly cyclonic flow. Weak westerly/northwesterly flow between 900-850mb could support flurries or light sprinkles confined to the highest elevations of southwest Virginia early this morning. High pressure across the northern Gulf Coast will bring tranquil weather conditions featuring mostly clear skies, and light winds. High temperatures today will be a couple of degree cooler as 850mb temperatures remain below 0C. High pressure across the northern Gulf Coast will begin to move east tonight, with moisture advection resulting in a slow increase in cloud cover.
Over the evening and overnight hours the low will slide east, taking a majority of the cloud cover with it. WAA plus insolation from mostly clear skies will push high temperatures about 5 degrees warmer than today. MRM A short wave trough will be making its way off the lee side of the Rockies and into the central CONUS Saturday morning.
Low pressure system was shifting eastward over the Great Lakes, but still getting cyclonic flow around the low across the area. Where the sun has been out today, temperatures have risen into the low to mid 40s so far, but remain in the mid to upper 30s where the clouds have been. The high pressure system should pass south of us tonight and winds should diminish and start to become more southerly on Friday. Some models bring in additional light precipitation over central MO on the northwest side of the low Saturday night. Model soundings show moisture mainly confined to the low levels up to around 850 mb with pretty dry air above this through the event, so precipitation totals look to be on the light side with total QPF less than 0.
(Today and tonight) A weak mid-level trough is passing through the High Plains upper ridge today.
Gehring (Issued 148 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023) Tonight through Friday night: Snow shower coverage is dwindling across the region this afternoon, as the upper level low over the area slowly weakens and begins to push east of the area.
Overcast skies remain across the region, along with some light snow, under an area of low pressure that is currently situated over the western Great Lakes. Current temperatures are hovering right around or slightly above freezing, but snow is expected to remain the dominant precipitation type throughout the afternoon hours. NAM and RAP model soundings both indicate that perhaps there is a possibility for a brief period of light freezing drizzle this evening, but the window is very short, given how quickly the column dries out. Tonight's lows will fall to the teens to the northwest, to the lower 20s to the southeast.
With these local effects, some locations are already cooler than the forecast lows, but these are in relatively localized areas. Initially westerly surface winds will back to southerly over the course of the night as a lee trough begins to deepen out west. Cloud cover will begin to develop as southwest flow aloft intensifies behind the ridge, moistening the mid-levels. Consequently, lows tonight will be somewhat warmer than they've been the last few days.
Tonight and Friday Scattered light snow and freezing drizzle will come to an end this evening as the low pressure system moves away.
The leading edge eastern edge of the stratus deck continues to have the lowest visibilities this morning with sites reporting a quarter mile as this area of warmer temps and dewpoints impinge on colder and drier air. This edge has mostly pushed east of the Red River proper with the lowest visibilities confined to the Thief River Falls and Crookston southward to Wapheton and Elbow Lake. Ensemble guidance depicts overall upper ridging over the central portions CONUS/CAN downstream of deep and persistent upper troughing over the northeast Pacific. Split flow extending out of this Pacific upper trough will allow one or more smaller waves to eject into the central CONUS, however there are some differences in track and strength of wave/s offered by ensemble suites.
Otherwise, mid/upper level cloud cover will persist through the morning before thinning this afternoon as the Pacific moisture fetch is disrupted, with increasing sunshine and downsloping surface flow allowing most areas to see highs in the low/mid 70s.
544 AM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 (Today through Saturday) This AM at the surface, a cold front is present to the SE of AL from a low pressure system over the W Atlantic extending SW into S FL and the SE Gulf of Mexico. The ridge center will slowly nudge EWD through the short term toward the GA/SC coast by late Saturday.
An upper level ridge will build over the area today resulting in warm air advection occurring across the area today. Clouds will increase across the area from west to east today with highs warming into the lower to middle 50s this afternoon. Lift will increase across the area later this evening into Saturday morning as the low moves into the area. Temperatures will remain above freezing tonight as lows only drop to around the 40 degree mark.
Per GFS and NAM soundings, associated low-level lift should support deep enough moistening for patchy to areas of light drizzle and light freezing drizzle later tonight through Saturday morning over eastern Kansas, mainly along/east of a line extending from Salina to El Dorado to Sedan. Surface wet-bulbs will be near to below freezing from generally El Dorado to Emporia on north, where the best chance for light freezing drizzle will exist. The NAM, which is probably a bit too bullish with low-level moistening, supports light freezing drizzle as far west as Lincoln to McPherson to Wichita to Arkansas City. do not think this event warrants a winter weather advisory at the moment, although today's shift will need to monitor model trends, and may also need to expand drizzle/freezing drizzle chances a bit further west, especially if the more bullish NAM holds true.
Near the surface, an area of low pressure remains situated in eastern Colorado. A large upper level trof exists early this morning across the Great Basin. This flow and downstream across our area, will result in the development of a weak low pressure center across SW Kansas today. As the low develops, a weak warm front will also develop with a bit of downsloping south of this front. Otherwise, the UL trof will start to swing out east this afternoon and tonight, with a resultant passage of a weak cold front is expected by then. Cooler highs are expected Saturday in the wake of the front.
927 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 High pressure will build into the area this afternoon and remain into Saturday.
The well advertised cold front has pushed through the Florida Keys this morning. GOES nighttime microphysics imagery shows some low level stratocumulus clouds moving south through the Straits of Florida in association with the aforementioned cold front. In the mid to upper levels, the Florida Keys are currently sitting between one ridge off to the east over the central North Atlantic while the other ridge, slightly elongated, was positioned over Mexico. In between, a slight dip in the jet stream is occurring that actually has the Florida Keys under a little bit of troughiness this morning.
Low pressure along with a cold front will move through tonight through Saturday night bringing showers to the area. The next impactful system will arrive by the end of the week as cold front pushes through with showers.
A ridge of high pressure was situated over the Central U.
555 AM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 (Today and tonight) Mid and upper level ridging currently over the area will continue to move east during the forecast period. This ridging combined with a lee side low developing off of the rockies will act to tighten the pressure gradient and increase winds this afternoon. Winds will begin to shift to the northwest overnight as a weak cold front approaches. The front should start to enter the Big Country after midnight, bringing cooler and drier air into the area.
Will see continued low pressure systems develop under the jet and lifting northward near 130-135W as they approach the Pacific Northwest. Modest south-southwesterly mid-level flow should result in precipitation amounts not being terribly different between the higher terrain and valley locations, but QPF still looks to be well below thresholds critical for hydrology problems. Another low pressure system will make its way northeastward offshore throughout the forecast period. Expect increasing rain throughout the day Friday as the overriding warm front pushes across the region. Buoy observations as of 2 AM show winds and seas ramping up yet again as the next area of low pressure, currently near 46N/136W, moves northeastward towards southern Alaska. Winds will reach low- to mid-level Gales during the first half of the day Friday with seas remaining in the low to mid teens through Friday night.
Look for high temperatures to peak in the low to mid 50s this afternoon underneath mostly clear skies.
Highs will cool off to start the weekend as cooler air moves over the region and temperatures return to near average. Given the dry air in forecast soundings in the lower levels and at the surface, it is unlikely any of the precip will reach the surface. This low pressure system will tighten the pressure gradient over the Panhandles and winds will increase today. The northerly winds will allow a cooler airmass to return to the region and highs on Saturday will decrease to near average with highs in the 40s and 50s.
600 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 Low pressure finishes vacating the region early this morning which is expected to taper off lingering morning snow showers. Westerly flow draws Lake Michigan moisture into SE MI throughout the day reinforcing the low level moisture and associated low MVFR stratus deck already in place. Little to no accumulations are anticipated given light intensities and temperatures slightly above freezing. Would like to see better moisture depths & cooler h850 temperatures for increasing PoP chances, so will cap the chances at 20%. Morning lows in the lower 30s rise slightly into the mid 30s for an afternoon high today.
With mean thermo profiles dry below half inch & persistent mean subsidence, chilly morning is ongoing, with lows falling to low-mid 30s, with some areas near freezing in cool drainage areas. 850mb ridge is progged to shift E, with gradual return flow over the ArkLaTex & dewpoints slowly climbing into the aftn. Temps will be similar to yesterday, warming above climo some +5-10 deg F into the low 60s N to mid-upper 60s in the S. Dewpoints will climb into the low 40s across these areas, while mid-upper 30s in central-NE zones. Subtle pressure gradient will help S wind to persist into the night, with lows a touch warmer than this morning in the low 40s E to mid 40s W.
636 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will reside over the area through Saturday.
323 AM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 A ridge of high pressure was situated over the Central U.
However, at least broken clouds will continue to linger over the area until the upper trough finally exits. Cooler air is filtering in this morning, so highs today will be a little lower than previous days, in the upper 20s to around 32 far southeast. We should be able to warm back into the lower/mid 30s, just above the freezing mark.
With high pressure settling into the region today, the dry and sinking air should be enough to allow for the low clouds and fog to mix out by the afternoon nearly everywhere, making way for plenty of sunshine. With a similar pattern expected tonight, there could again be development of some freezing fog, especially in the low-lying areas.
253 AM PST Fri Jan 6 2023 Through Saturday, dry with slowly warmer days.
NAM RH fields are currently matching up the best with ongoing observations, and have followed the progression of this low level RH through today and again tonight. With this high pressure slow to move out today, there is a chance this advisory could need to be extended in time for some areas through the day although confidence was not high enough to extend at this moment. Otherwise look for a slightly cooler day today. High pressure moves east southeast tonight. Later tonight as the high starts to pull away, a light southwest wind may develop.
524 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over lower MI with a ridge over the Rockies and a trough on the west coast.
649 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 High pressure will build into the area this afternoon and remain into Saturday.
434 AM MST Fri Jan 6 2023 A weak Pacific trough over central UT at 12z, will make its way across northern CO through 18z. Light snow will increase in coverage today, with west/southwest ridgetop winds favoring zones 31 and 33 through midday. Northwesterly flow aloft increases a bit on Saturday with an upper ridge to move into the CWA from the west.
316 AM MST Fri Jan 6 2023 A weak Pacific trough over central UT at 12z, will make its way across northern CO through 18z. Light snow will increase in coverage today, with west/southwest ridgetop winds favoring zones 31 and 33 through midday. Northwesterly flow aloft increases a bit on Saturday with an upper ridge to move into the CWA from the west.
506 AM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 (Today and tonight) A weak mid-level trough is passing through the High Plains upper ridge today.
(Today and tonight) Mid and upper level ridging currently over the area will continue to move east during the forecast period. This ridging combined with a lee side low developing off of the rockies will act to tighten the pressure gradient and increase winds this afternoon. Winds will begin to shift to the northwest overnight as a weak cold front approaches. The front should start to enter the Big Country after midnight, bringing cooler and drier air into the area.
947 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 Dry high pressure settles over the region today, then shifts to the east Saturday.
Guidance is pointing toward a pretty impressive temperature gradient developing across our forecast area, with overnight lows in the low 30s at sites like Effingham and Lawrenceville, but low 20s at Peoria and Galesburg. Global models continue to struggle resolving the low track this weekend beneath split upper-level flow. Regardless of which suite of guidance nails the low track, there appears to be some banded snow potential Saturday evening somewhere between I-70 and I-80 where mesoscale enhancements could support locally higher QPF amounts (> 0.
521 AM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 (Today) Expect a warm and windy day today in advance of a cold front set to move through the area tonight and into tomorrow as an upper low pushes into the Central Plains.
636 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 Dry high pressure settles over the region today, then shifts to the east Saturday.
Morning lows were in the lower 40s and highs are expected to reach the upper 60s to mid 70s from north to south. Early morning water vapor and IR satellite imagery are showing a band of moisture and clouds moving through southern Florida along the recent cold front boundary, with drier air filling into the Florida Peninsula from the north. This cooler and drier airmass will lead to temperatures maxing out in the upper 60s to mid 70s this afternoon. High pressure will then remain in control through the weekend, with temperatures gradually trending warmer again.
431 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will reside over the area through Saturday.
A cold front moved through the Keys this morning and promoted mostly sunny skies and mild weather conditions with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s, and dew points in the low to mid 50s. However, in the wake of the cold front prolonged moderate to fresh breezes will encompass Key West coastal waters and island chains.
Another short wave trough will be right on the heels of Saturday's.
203 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 Sprinkles and flurries across the lowlands, light snow showers in the mountains.
(Through Tonight) High pressure to the northwest this afternoon, will build more toward the north Tonight. Subsidence under the ridge will keep skies clear Tonight, and winds light.
Much warmer temperatures expected tonight with overnight lows in the 50s. Moisture advection from low-level southerly flow will support dewpoint values in the lower 60s ahead of the front. Otherwise, overnight lows on Saturday night to range from the mid 30s across the I-30 corridor north of the front to the lower 50s across north Louisiana.
1214 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 (Today and tonight) A weak mid-level trough is passing through the High Plains upper ridge today.
Snow is falling over the high mountains and in some valley locations but is quite light. A weak Pacific trough over central UT at 12z, will make its way across northern CO through 18z. Light snow will increase in coverage today, with west/southwest ridgetop winds favoring zones 31 and 33 through midday. Northwesterly flow aloft increases a bit on Saturday with an upper ridge to move into the CWA from the west.
1138 AM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 Partly sunny skies will prevail across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the lower 30s far north around Galesburg and Lacon. to the lower to middle 40s south of I-70. Guidance is pointing toward a pretty impressive temperature gradient developing across our forecast area, with overnight lows in the low 30s at sites like Effingham and Lawrenceville, but low 20s at Peoria and Galesburg. Global models continue to struggle resolving the low track this weekend beneath split upper-level flow. Regardless of which suite of guidance nails the low track, there appears to be some banded snow potential Saturday evening somewhere between I-70 and I-80 where mesoscale enhancements could support locally higher QPF amounts (> 0.
As the low moves east, a trailing cold front will move south across the area early Saturday. The front will be dry but will bring cooler temperatures for Saturday, although still near or slightly above normal for this time of year. Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s north, to the upper 40s and lower 50s along the I-10 corridor where some low clouds are expected towards daybreak.
The next one will mainly impact central and northern parts of the State this weekend, allowing the Southland a break, with dry and warmer days.
Discussion: Upper level trough will be moving eastward across the Southern Great Plains tonight with longwave troughing across the Northeast CONUS. Zonal flow will be present across our area with weak isentropic lift within the SW flow and weak ridging building in from the west. Models are hinting at enough moisture and lift for some light precip late tonight and Saturday morning across NE TN and SW VA, and it will be cold enough to support some light snow or flurries, especially across the higher elevations. We will continue to see a chance of light shower or sprinkles into the afternoon across much of the area associated with isentropic lift ahead of the approaching upper trough. Afternoon temperatures will be near normal with the weak ridging and broken to overcast cloud cover.
The arctic air mass has held temperatures near the lower 70s and caused dew points to plummet to the 50s. Moderate to fresh northerly breezes in the wake of the cold front should keep temperatures from falling below the middle to low 60s, as it will keep the boundary layer well mixed.
A split flow pattern is evident across the CONUS this morning with a trough moving through the Southern Rockies. Low pressure along with a cold front will move through tonight through Saturday night bringing showers to the area. The next impactful system will arrive by the end of the week as cold front pushes through with showers.
1229 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over lower MI with a ridge over the Rockies and a trough on the west coast.
Zonal flow aloft will shift more to the southwest during the day on Saturday, as a weak ridge builds ahead of a trough digging into the Plains. Given weak height rises on Saturday, temps will be a few degrees warmer, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Otherwise, high pressure moving into the region will bring mainly dry conditions this weekend along with seasonable temperatures. Temperatures tonight will finally drop below freezing, with lows expected to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s (this is still above normal for this time of the year though). High pressure begins to move into the region Saturday night, which will gradually put an end to any lake effect snow showers or flurries.
This will lead to cooler temps closer to normal values for January at least through Saturday night and light winds as weak high pressure settles across the area.
The NAM/RAP/GFS look to show sufficient low-level isentropic lift/saturation per 285-290k surfaces for some drizzle/freezing drizzle in the 09z-18z time frame from southeast Kansas arching north-northwest across east central Kansas into the northern Flint Hills. The best potential for several hours of near or just below freezing surface temperatures look to be just west and southwest of KEMP, mainly Marion, Chase, northern Butler and northern Greenwood counties.
Additional accumulations are expected to be only an inch or two with 2 to 4 inches possible in the higher peaks of the western mountains. Ridging will keep conditions tranquil Saturday with no snow chances and temperatures near normal values. The lowest elevations of the Wind River Basin will remain on the cooler side, and will likely continue to be the coldest spot in the state due to continued light winds and snowpack induced surface temperature inversion.
(This evening through Saturday) A ~110kt upper level jet and stronger WSW flow through the mid- levels are allowing for the advection of warmer, drier air into the region. The pattern will shift overnight into Saturday with an upper trough approaching from the north. This will lead to additional cloud cover and keep lows slightly warmer the average, near the freezing mark. As this low weakens and departs to the east, winds will diminish through the day. Combined with the aforementioned upper troughing, temperatures will be significantly cooler than today, remaining in the upper 50s over much of the southern Panhandle.
This low will undergo weak cyclolysis as it enters the CWA after sunset amid synoptic-scale pressure rises. This pattern will encourage a weak cold front to sweep the modified Gulf air back to the southeast, paving the way for a cold night. Cooler temperatures will continue to filter in tomorrow.
Tonight and Saturday A small area of convergence near the southern end of the bay kept a few light flurries in the area for the early afternoon as moisture remained available in the lower levels. Saturday, high pressure will establish itself in the region fairly quickly, bringing in plenty of sunshine and removing any remaining fog and cloud cover in the area. High temperatures for Saturday will range from the middle 20s to the lower 30s.
1154 AM CST Fri Jan 6 2023 (Today and tonight) Mid and upper level ridging currently over the area will continue to move east during the forecast period. This ridging combined with a lee side low developing off of the rockies will act to tighten the pressure gradient and increase winds this afternoon. Winds will begin to shift to the northwest overnight as a weak cold front approaches. The front should start to enter the Big Country after midnight, bringing cooler and drier air into the area.
Despite an intensifying field of westerlies across all of southwest/central Kansas, drier air in the lower/mid levels and marginal moisture associated with the upper level system itself will lend to a generally dry frontal passage. Colder air filtering southward into western Kansas later tonight behind the front will reinforce the already colder air mass settled throughout the high plains. Cooler highs are expected Saturday in the wake of the front.