Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
607 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 (Today) Upper level ridging remained over the Desert SW and northern Mexico, with troughing over the eastern third of the Lower-48. An upper level low within this trough was situated over TN/KY per a mid and high altitude water vapor view. Temperatures were on the mild side, ranging in the lower 60s to around 70. A presence of a weak upper low within troughing over the region will allow for better broad scale lift to be realized later today. Given the location of the upper low as it tracks towards northern Alabama, the best chances for showers should be near and east of the I-65 corridor.
517 AM MDT Sun Sep 10 2023 07z surface analysis had main front well south/southwest of the CWA with a trough from eastern MT into central WY. Water vapour loop had upper ridge centered over northwest Mexico with westerly flow aloft over the northern Rockies/Plains.
Although today will be not quite as hot as yesterday, a cold front will enter northwestern Oklahoma early this evening moving slowly through the northwestern quarter or so of the state by sunrise Monday.
The ridge is also expected to weaken slightly further tomorrow, so will continue the slow cooling trend with highs mainly in the upper 90s to around 100 expected tomorrow.
1016 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 High pressure will gradually build into the area through Monday.
The low-level inversion has remained weak, so expect stratus to dissipate by midday with ground heating and mixing.
655 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023 High pressure will gradually build into the area through Monday.
645 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 (Today through Monday) An upper level low is sitting over TN early this morning and is bringing some low clouds to the region. The low clouds will limit fog tonight but we are still seeing some patchy fog in far eastern areas and it could be locally dense until around daybreak or so. The upper level low will become an open wave today and start to push to the east. Short wave ridge builds in for Monday which will bring a slight warming trend and dry weather.
An upper level trough off the coast will swing into western Canada late today and overnight.
High temperatures inland will range from the low to mid 90s northeast to the mid to upper 90s for the remainder of the area. Looking for a cooler September night? Expect to see lows tonight in an upper 60s to low 70s range for much of the area (could see a couple spots drop into the mid 60s in/around the Crockett area and surrounding locations).
Troughing over the Hudson Bay Region prevails today into Monday, with an extension of this trough bringing a chance for showers into the area.
The upper- ridge continues to lose its iron grip on the region. A combination of cloud cover, convection, and a southwestward moving cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures Monday. Temperatures elsewhere remain relatively hot, though several degrees cooler than previous days. Even cooler weather and even more precipitation can be expected beyond the short-term period.
The steadier precip will end with the passage of a cold front from west to east. Scattered showers may linger Monday afternoon due to the steep low level lapse rates from the upper level trough aloft.
612 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 A high pressure system will continue to bring pleasant and dry weather with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s through Monday.
641 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 (Sunday through Monday) A broad upper ridge over the Desert Southwest will keep a northwesterly/northerly flow in place today. At the surface, northeasterly winds will advect cooler and drier air into the region. Daytime high temperatures should be very near yesterday's values, generally ranging from the mid 80s in Southwest Arkansas and Northeast Louisiana to the lower 90s in East Texas. On Monday, the upper ridge will weaken and flatten considerably while moving farther south into Mexico. As a large upper trough axis moves across the Great Lakes in the northern stream, a series of weak disturbances will moves through the Southern Plains in the zonal flow. These features will help to push another cold front gradually closer.
With drier air in place and light winds, lows will be down into the lower 70s across the inland coastal plains tonight. The upper level ridge will be drifting west on Monday, so highs will be slightly lower.
556 AM MDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Upper level trough will continue to push further east and southeast Sunday as the associated cold front follows with it. The surface boundary in its wake, more of a post-frontal trough, will continue to extend across the CWA northwest to southeast that will spark another round of more widely scattered rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms by early to mid afternoon Sunday. An induced upper level ridge will build over the CWA for Monday extending up from the high to the south. Mainly dry conditions outside of higher elevation precipiation through mid week with warmer temperatures expected. A deep low will extend from a trough from the GOA pushing south across the Pacific Northwest during this period of time.
An upper trough continues to very slowly drift across the Tennessee River valley. The trough will lift later in the day with heights increasing over the Quad State, resulting in highs reaching the lower 80s today. An upper trough deepens into the Upper Midwest Monday, with an upper low forming near Lake Superior.
At the same time a weak mid level trough is along the Appalachians. This trough will begin to push northeast late afternoon. The weakening mid level trough will lift away from the area tonight, with a more zonal wave pattern taking shape.
617 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 (Today through Monday) Upper trough centered over eastern Tennessee early this morning, with ridging well to the west over Baja California. Sprawling high pressure over central Canada and off the Atlantic Coast. Most of the upper trough shears eastward over the next 36 hours, with a weakness remaining over the northern Gulf of Mexico, while ridging remains over northern Mexico. Don't see much indication that today's highs should be significantly different from yesterday's, but forecast soundings would point toward tomorrow's highs being a degree or two warmer. Should see highs in the lower and middle 90s, but with dew points mainly in the 60s the next couple days, heat related headlines aren't necessary.
At the surface, a weak area of low pressure and an inverted trough stretch across western Wisconsin while a cold front is draped across Minnesota. But with the low level convergence lingering over Wisconsin, think will see isolated to scattered shower coverage for the rest of the day. Guidance generally points towards north- central Wisconsin as having the highest chances where low level moisture is the most robust. Temps: Cooler temps are expected today due to more clouds and shower activity. Monday looks even cooler with widespread rain expected.
However, a robust upper level disturbance will be approaching the high plains this afternoon. Some clearing is likely by late in the day Monday, which should allow temperatures to rise into the lower 70s by 5 pm after a cool morning to early afternoon.
The high pressure has caused calm winds and clear skies. Clouds will slowly increase late this afternoon and evening as a low pressure system moves into the region tonight into Monday morning.
Wind profile is very weak in the low levels, though, winds are veering which is similar to yesterday at this time lending to cloud line development not being completely ruled out. At 200 and 500 mb, troughing can be seen extending southward into the south- central Gulf of Mexico with a ridge retreating over the Southwest and a ridge over the western North Atlantic with Hurricane Lee well north of the U. At the surface, high pressure is present over the North Atlantic north of Bermuda with this ridge extending southwestward over Florida. From synopsis, weak high pressure over the North Atlantic will result in continued light to gentle, mainly east to southeast breezes through tonight.
- Cold front slowly moves through the region tonight into Monday, bringing chances for scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.
TONIGHT: High pressure moves southward tonight, with winds turning light and variable after midnight. Depending on the degree of lingering mid-lvl cloud cover associated with the upper trough now pivoting into the Great Lakes, temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s. MONDAY: High pressure moves through the area on Monday, keeping winds light and variable in most locations. Model guidance continues to rotate a stronger wave around the backside of the upper trough later in the afternoon and evening. High temperatures rise into the lower to middle 70s, still a few degrees below normal.
The main forecast challenge in the short term remains cloud cover and resulting afternoon temperatures associated with a departing upper trough currently centered over the TN Valley. The lone exception to this will be areas generally west of the I-65 corridor where it could be mainly sunny as drier air in central IN begins to work in behind the departing upper trough. Where sunshine could break out later today highs will get into the low 80s.
Trough remains entrenched over the CWA and will slowly fill through the forecast period. Highs will be in the 80s both days, though expect Monday to be a few degrees warmer than today.
A cold front could bring a little rain late into the period. An upper trough and upper jet will approach the area late on Monday. Deeper moisture looks to arrive with the upper trough itself, which won't arrive until later. A surface cold front will be ahead of the main system and move into central Indiana late Monday, but as mentioned above, low level moisture will be wanting, and convergence isn't great either. A few sprinkles or light showers might fall out of the mid cloud deck very late in the Monday period in the far northwest closest to the upper trough. Expect rain to overspread the area early in the period as an upper trough moves through. At the surface, a cold front associated with a weak low pressure system is expected to move across central Indiana.
(Today through Monday) An upper level low is sitting over TN early this morning and is bringing some low clouds to the region. The low clouds will limit fog tonight but we are still seeing some patchy fog in far eastern areas and it could be locally dense until around daybreak or so. The upper level low will become an open wave today and start to push to the east. Short wave ridge builds in for Monday which will bring a slight warming trend and dry weather.
(Through Monday) Weak upper level troughing and a moderately unstable airmass will allow for isolated to scattered convection for the remainder of this afternoon before diminishing this evening with the loss of instability. Overnight lows tonight are expected to mostly range from the upper 60s to lower 70s with afternoon highs on Monday mostly in the lower 90s.
(Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Heat Advisory in effect through early this afternoon Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals a trough across the eastern CONUS and ridging to our west.
1243 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Today's forecast is still on track to be tranquil with seasonable temperatures peaking in the low to mid-80s. These clouds will help keep nighttime low temperatures warmer than what we've been seeing, only falling into the upper 50s and low 60s as opposed to the mid-40s to mid-50s. This feature will drive a cold front through the area on Monday. As of now, highs in the upper 60s are expected in northeast Missouri, warming to the low 80s in areas south of I-44 in Missouri and I-70 in Illinois.
1118 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 12Z Upper air analysis depicts an upper level ridge building in from west CONUS and a broad trough to the east of the region. The MidSouth is located within the base of a longwave trough axis. The 925mb temperatures this morning were between 17-19C translating to afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s with slight warming aloft. A high pressure system will continue to bring pleasant and dry weather with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s through Monday.
Forecast: An upper-level trough is centered on the CWA today, resulting in relatively weak flow aloft and effective bulk shear less than 30 kts. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Coverage of convection on Monday looks to be relegated to the higher terrain of northeast Georgia and counties south of I-20.
211 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 70-90kt northwesterly upper level jet max on the base of and advancing longer wave trough over the far northern CONUS is nudging the long lasting upper level low off towards east Tennessee. Highs should stretch into the low 80s. Monday night a trough and associated cold front moves in from the northwest. The actual front looks to move through Monday evening, with the precip occurring between the upper trough axis and the surface front.
This new trough will change our upper-level flow from northerly to westerly starting on Monday.
During the short-term forecast period, the synoptic pattern will be characterized by the presence of an upper-level high pressure system situated over northern Mexico and along the border. Concurrently, a long-wave trough will be digging into the Northern Plains through Monday. Upper level ridging then builds over the Rockies Monday into Monday night. At the surface, a cold front is currently draped along the KS/NE border. This cold front is expected to slide southward this evening and into Oklahoma by sunrise tomorrow. Short term CAM models depict thunderstorms development along the cold front late this afternoon and continue into this evening as it slides southward.
Otherwise, the lower stratus clouds have mostly cleared allowing the temperatures to spike and instability to climb. They all depict heights rebounding over Kentucky initially tonight into Monday in advance of a large and deep trough diving into the Upper Midwest.
Dry air is present aloft, but enough low-level moisture is in place to support a few isolated to scattered showers across the east today closer to the downstream side of the trough. Some residual low-level troughing will separate over the Gulf Coast tonight and slightly drift westward through tomorrow. Low-level thicknesses rise slightly with weak height rises, so expect temperatures to be a degree or two warmer than today.
Scattered mid/high clouds will continue spreading into the region ahead of next low pressure system. Broad upper trough will shift into the central Plains tonight with precipitation chances increasing north of I-44 as cold front moves into far northeast Oklahoma late tonight.
Two weak waves embedded within the broader upper trough across the region. The forecast begins with energy digging into the Great Lakes, with ridging over the Western High Plains.
210 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 - Seasonably cooler temperatures through the week, highs in the 70s. Rather agitated WV imagery this afternoon, with several short wave disturbances riding along the weak ridge stretching from the southwest and across the central Plains. A weak H500 short wave trough will assist, providing some support aloft overnight as it rides east-southeast toward the lower Missouri Valley.
135 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 High clouds from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Jova will continue moving over the region through Monday night. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Mid and high level cloud cover stemming from Tropical Cyclone Jova continues across SoCal this afternoon, with some areas of light moderate rain ongoing. Regardless, cloud cover should mitigate any more significant warming trends today, so the Excessive Heat Warning in the Lower Deserts has been canceled early. A weak 500mb troughing pattern then looks to set in and remain in place over the Eastern Pacific and the West Coast for much of this week.
Dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s are being observed this afternoon and resulting RHs are once again in the 30s, especially across central Mississippi where temperatures are slightly warmer.
With the upper level ridge continuing to slide west, our first decent cold front of the season arrives Monday afternoon. Lows for Monday night end up much cooler in the low to mid 60s across the Permian Basin with 50s in the mountains.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower 70s, with coastal locations remaining in the mid to upper 70s along the coast.
Surface temperatures south of the the boundary have risen into the low/mid 80s with estimated MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg.
Temperatures for the area will sit in the mid 90's for much of the lower valley locations.
Current forecast remains on track with the upper-level trough now situated over eastern Kentucky and weak riding moving in from the west. These clouds will likely stick around for most of the day, eroding slowly as the trough continues to push eastward. Temperatures in areas that are partly cloudy will see highs in the low 80s and cloudy regions will see highs in the mid-upper 70s. The main forecast challenge in the short term remains cloud cover and resulting afternoon temperatures associated with a departing upper trough currently centered over the TN Valley. The lone exception to this will be areas generally west of the I-65 corridor where it could be mainly sunny as drier air in central IN begins to work in behind the departing upper trough. Where sunshine could break out later today highs will get into the low 80s.
Sct showers and storms have developed near the trough over ern IA into nw IL.
(Tonight) A few light showers have formed along Lookout Mountain this afternoon, but otherwise dry weather is prevailing across the Tennessee Valley as a weak upper-trough swings east of the region. Lows will fall into the low to mid 60s in most locations thanks to some good radiational cooling setting up this evening once cloud cover dissipates.
228 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2023 20Z analysis shows an upper trough crossing the region this afternoon to the east of an upper ridge building over the western CONUS. Low temperatures will be in the 40s over much of the area, with some 30s over the higher Black Hills.
237 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 An upper level trough continues to move across the western North Dakota this afternoon bringing forth showers. Clouds are forecast to increase across the region as the upper level trough progresses eastward today. Showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow as an upper level low passes across northern Minnesota bringing in cyclonic flow aloft to eastern North Dakota. An upper level low will continue to progresses into the Great Lakes region.
High pressure will bring a continuation of rain free weather to the Mid-South through tomorrow.
The low-amplitude mid/upper-level ridge axis will translate east across the area on Monday ahead of an upper trough swinging through BC and the PacNW.
High pressure will then keep conditions dry overnight into Monday morning.
1100 AM MDT Sun Sep 10 2023 07z surface analysis had main front well south/southwest of the CWA with a trough from eastern MT into central WY. Water vapour loop had upper ridge centered over northwest Mexico with westerly flow aloft over the northern Rockies/Plains.
Winds are fairly weak around this high pressure with mostly clear skies. Outside of the high, cumulus clouds have developed, with deeper cumulus across central North Dakota closer to cyclonic vorticity advection over the region.
Leftover moisture/instability may result in a few pop- up storms over the higher elevations of the northern Sierra in Tuolumne County this afternoon (10-20% probability). Ensembles indicate weak troughing prevailing through mid-week.
(Tonight through Monday night) The main weather highlight in the short term period is the continued triple digit temperatures and heat indices across Deep South Texas as the region remains under the influence of mid-level ridging.
Through the rest of the night, any lingering showers will diminish with the loss of daytime heating and high pressure building over the CWA. Low confidence will be patchy fog in the lower elevations and river valleys. Monday, a prominent 500 hPa ridge axis over Alberta will move to the southeast toward the Great Lakes.
916 AM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 High clouds from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Jova will continue moving over the region through Monday night.
A cold front, located across northeast Colorado, northwest Kansas and southern Nebraska, will continue to shift southward this afternoon and evening. On Monday, the cold front will continue to push southward with a better push along the higher terrain of Texas and parts of western Oklahoma.
The Butte/Anaconda region and Salmon, ID have the highest probability (20%) of see the convection up to sunset this evening.
The front will dissolve and be nudged east of the area on Monday with drier conditions expected to start the week, and cooler air on the way for mid-late week.
- Slightly warmer on Monday. As the upper-level trough has shifted off to the east, weak ridging will have settled into the Ohio Valley allowing skies to clear overnight. These winds will advect some moisture into the region, bringing dew points into the low-mid 60s. High temperatures in the afternoon are expected to be in the low-mid 80s. Clouds will also steadily increase from northwest to southeast in the later afternoon and into the evening as the cold front approaches the region.
1232 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 (Today through Monday) Upper trough centered over eastern Tennessee early this morning, with ridging well to the west over Baja California. Sprawling high pressure over central Canada and off the Atlantic Coast. Most of the upper trough shears eastward over the next 36 hours, with a weakness remaining over the northern Gulf of Mexico, while ridging remains over northern Mexico. Don't see much indication that today's highs should be significantly different from yesterday's, but forecast soundings would point toward tomorrow's highs being a degree or two warmer. Should see highs in the lower and middle 90s, but with dew points mainly in the 60s the next couple days, heat related headlines aren't necessary.
Precipitation chances will drop off sharply this evening as the upper level ridge begins to set up over the region. Monday will be warmer and drier with the ridge overhead.
While we continue to sit under a split ridge pattern, ridging over the desert southwest has somewhat retreated allowing for the mid to upper level trough to slide from mainland Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. This hasn't stopped the sputtering of a few cloudlines trying to develop over the Lower and Middle Keys, but very little precipitation has been observed from resulting showers. From synopsis, weak high pressure over the North Atlantic will result in continued light to gentle, mainly east to southeast breezes through tonight.
300 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 A cold front crossing central Illinois late Monday will bring a 60 percent chance for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder.
Low-level water vapor imagery and height analysis show the approaching trough axis with one vort max moving into western Kansas with another in north-central Nebraska. By later this afternoon and evening, upper level lift associated with the mid-level trough will push further east into Kansas and Nebraska. Elevated showers and some isolated thunderstorms along the low-level boundary will also push further east, continuing to saturate the column in eastern Kansas. Showers and storms will remain possible Monday afternoon in far east-central Kansas as a few further waves of energy advect in on the back side of the upper low.
121 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 A high pressure system will continue to bring pleasant and dry weather with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s through Monday.
Similar conditions will continue into Monday as the upper ridge continues to amplify.
Upper-level ridging will push east today with a weakening front approaching Western Washington. Cooler temperatures and even some light rain is expected for portions of the area later this afternoon and tonight.