Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1113 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Currently, a mid-level cutoff low is moving northeast through the southeast United States, forced out of its early week position by an incoming longwave trough. The longwave trough in the western CONUS will continue to move east, deepening with time. At the surface, low pressure lee of the Colorado Rockies, connected to weak low pressure in the Upper Midwest via a cold front, will move east across the Plains. Highs on Sunday will be upwards of 35 degrees cooler than those of Saturday, landing in the 40s and 50s across the area. Due to surface temperatures above freezing at this time, rain may not transition to snow.
Rest of short term forecast on track with mild/breezy conditions overnight ahead of cold front. Taking a quick look at the 00Z model data, still appears that strong to severe storms will likely develop ahead of cold front across northwest Arkansas by mid to late afternoon Saturday.
(Today) Cold front through NW OK continues to make steady progress eastward this morning and will be the focus as it passes through the forecast area today. Convection ongoing across southern KS is on the periphery of the low level thermal ridge which is likely to limit much southward advance, however the residual outflow could be sufficient to spark isolated convection through the morning near the OK/KS border. Otherwise, the increasingly unstable warm sector ahead of the cold front is expected to become uncapped by early afternoon, however preceding wind profiles will be largely veered limiting frontal convergence.
Much cooler temperatures for today with scattered showers persisting.
- Much cooler Saturday with northwest wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph. The cold front has pushed past the NWS office in Valley and is nearing the Omaha and Lincoln metros.
As the low develops across the central plains the onshore flow is increasing locally. A second round of convection is anticipated with the cold front later in the day or overnight. A cooler and drier air mass will filter into the region for Sunday. As high pressure builds in early in the day conditions may become windy, but wind speeds are expected to decrease by sunset.
237 AM MDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Upper trough will move through eastern Montana today. Upper level ridge moves in today and will be over the area on Sunday with warmer temperatures.
Ridging will still be over the area on Saturday with enough heat and humidity to allow a few seabreeze storms to form in the late afternoon and evening hours. A cold front will star to approach the area on Sunday with showers and storms possible ahead of the system.
There is some more moisture coming into the mountains right on and ahead of trough axis. However a 2ndry disturbance on back of the trough along with continued upslope flow will allow for light precip to occur over most of the region through the night time hours. 2ndy disturbance will push down the plains on the backside of the trough.
Otherwise expect dry weather under a building ridge of high pressure through Sunday.
To the north, a cold front was steadily through the Panhandle. Highs behind the front across the Big Country likely to stay in the lower 80s, with readings along I-10 again well into the 80s and even pushing 90.
339 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Convection ending behind the cold front over the southeast, after training storms resulted in dual-pol radar estimates of 2-3 inches over a good chunk of south central Stafford county. The stratus may mitigate the extreme gustiness for a while this morning, however the models trend toward losing the low level clouds by midday leaving in effect a deeper boundary layer to mix. Dramatically different weather is expected Today with cloudy and cooler, post frontal airmass, and a pressure gradient/momentum transfer still impacting the surface wind field though the day. The high resolution ensemble forecast only places the larger part of the current watch in the 40-50 percent chance of 0 deg C at this time.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday in advance of a cold front that will push offshore Sunday night.
a large upper level trough approaches the forecast area tonight, moving through the area during the day Saturday then east of the area Saturday night with an amplifying ridge axis to our west. With 2" soil temperatures across Kansas (per Kansas mesonet) currently in the lower 60s to around 80 degrees, it will be hard for any accumulations to develop and should be limited to grassy areas. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the lower to upper 30s with high temperatures Saturday in the middle 40s to lower 50s. broad upper level ridging moves over the area.
Timing differences noted between 15/00Z NAM, GFS, ECWMF model solutions as it comes to how far eastward surface cold front will push into mid state region shortly after sunrise on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be much cooler mainly spanning the 60s.
Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, with a weak ridge extending westward across the Florida peninsula. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a weakening cyclone moving slowly NE across the central Appalachians, while the next mid-latitude trough deepens over the western Plains, and zonal flow prevails across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Light southeast winds and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s will make the forecast highs in the mid to upper 80s feel even warmer. Dry weather should continue across the Keys tonight into Sunday morning, although signs of change will appear to our northwest over the Gulf, where a squall line is likely to develop as a negatively tilted trough aloft pivots eastward across the central CONUS and pushes a surface cold front into the Gulf.
Moving into the overnight hours, some mid-level cloud cover settles over the area ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the northern plains 12z Sat which heads east into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb closed low embedded in a deep trough over the lower Great Lakes 12z Tue with a trough in the western U. The trough in the western U.
633 AM EDT Sat Apr 15 2023 An area of low pressure will move away to the NE this morning. Weak high pressure will follow. Another cold front will approach late Sunday. The mid/upper low will be lifting out of the area this morning. Subsidence in the rear of the departing trough should produce enough subsidence to keep POP isolated. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight as weak high pressure builds over the region. The upper level trough will be approaching from the lower Mississippi Valley region Sunday. A cold front will move into the Appalachians during the afternoon, then progress east across central NC Sunday night. The cold front should pass through during the night.
Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected over the weekend along with lighter winds. A high pressure system will build over the region this weekend, allowing temperatures to warm and lighter winds to be present. Precipitation chances will also stay at zero across northern Arizona with this ridge in place. Our weather story will slightly change once we approach this coming work week, with an incoming low pressure system. This trough will sweep down from off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and primarily impact our winds and temperatures.
Skies have been mostly clear overnight, apart from upper-level cirrus on the west side of the ridge axis beginning to spread eastward over northern LA/southern AR. This activity, triggered in advance of the main trough, will continue to move east near the Gulf Coast through this morning. More easy to anticipate timing at least, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop along a cold front moving east into our forecast area this evening into the overnight.
Upper level ridging continues to build in for our region bringing a quiet weather weekend for today and tomorrow before our first wave of unsettled weather arrives tomorrow night in the form of scattered light rainfall, with snowfall confined to the Northern Rocky Mountain Front.
Over the course of the next hour or two, this fog should largely lift, with the potential for a brief period of low clouds before more mixing takes place as the low-level inversion breaks. Otherwise, quiet boating conditions continue today before another cold front arrives tomorrow, with increasing rain chances and deteriorating marine conditions.
511 AM MDT Sat Apr 15 2023 The trough axis is working through our eastern CWA early this morning with cold air aloft continuing to feed instability showers over the central mountain corridor. By tomorrow however only the heavier snow-packed valleys should remain below normal by several degrees while the lower desert valleys push back to climatology. With clear skies and drier air working is tonight should be rather chilly with single digit to teens over the high valleys and larger basins expected. Temperatures near freezing can be expected through the Grand Valley with some colder spots in the the favored drainages.
620 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 (Today) Cold front through NW OK continues to make steady progress eastward this morning and will be the focus as it passes through the forecast area today. Convection ongoing across southern KS is on the periphery of the low level thermal ridge which is likely to limit much southward advance, however the residual outflow could be sufficient to spark isolated convection through the morning near the OK/KS border. Otherwise, the increasingly unstable warm sector ahead of the cold front is expected to become uncapped by early afternoon, however preceding wind profiles will be largely veered limiting frontal convergence.
637 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase across the Mid-South into tonight as a cold front moves across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front on Sunday.
The upper level ridge over the region transforms into a more zonal flow pattern, then the upper ridge continues to slowly shift east with the upper trough offshore deepening today. In addition to the precipitation, this front will bring breezy winds to the ridgetops across the area, especially east of the Cascades.
553 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front has already made it to around Enid to Elk City early this morning.
Currently - The Keys reside on the west southwestern flank of an Atlantic ridge centered well off the Atlantic coast. Warm and humid conditions prevail with temperatures climbing through the lower to mid 80s and dew points a disagreeable mid 70s. Ridging is in place across our area and low to mid level moisture is lacking. Short Term Update - Through the afternoon, surface through lower level ridging will maintain control across the Keys, despite quite a bit of day time heating over the mainland. The western flank of an Atlantic pressure ridge will remain across Florida this afternoon.
KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler and wetter weekend with rain changing over to snow late Saturday into Sunday.
Upper-level ridging gains control after today with limited chances for precipitation and a warming trend through the remainder of the forecast period.
Dry conditions with warming temperatures under a building high pressure are expected through the weekend.
615 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front located near Highway 86 as of 2 AM will continue to sweep south this morning. Breezy northerly winds and cold air advection behind the front will lead to cooler high temperatures today. Along with calming winds late tonight, overnight temperatures will fall to near or below freezing in the southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains.
Each one appears to be weaker, and with warming temperatures this morning the chance of snow accumulation is looking limited to the mountains, and mainly the high mountains. Sunday, an upper level ridge builds into the region from the west. Warming temperatures aloft and sunny conditions will help temperatures rebound back into the 60s across the lower elevations and 30s/40s for most of the high country.
Convection ending behind the cold front over the southeast, after training storms resulted in dual-pol radar estimates of 2-3 inches over a good chunk of south central Stafford county. The stratus may mitigate the extreme gustiness for a while this morning, however the models trend toward losing the low level clouds by midday leaving in effect a deeper boundary layer to mix. Dramatically different weather is expected Today with cloudy and cooler, post frontal airmass, and a pressure gradient/momentum transfer still impacting the surface wind field though the day. The high resolution ensemble forecast only places the larger part of the current watch in the 40-50 percent chance of 0 deg C at this time.
414 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler and wetter weekend with rain changing over to snow late Saturday into Sunday.
412 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 The axis of an upper level trough lies from Saskatchewan through central Wyoming early this morning. As the upper trough axis shifts into the western Dakotas this afternoon, the change to a northwest cyclonic flow aloft pattern could promote some isolated rain showers across parts of western North Dakota.
We'll be watching a low potential for thunderstorms along a cold front this afternoon. Otherwise, it'll be mostly cloudy and breezy for the rest of the night with temperatures falling into the low/mid 60s. As it does, a cold front will slide southward through the region. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region behind the front thanks to brisk northwest winds. After a cool start to the day on Sunday, sunny skies and light winds will set the stage for a beautiful afternoon with high temperatures in the lower 70s.
With high pressure at the surface today and southerly flow in place, a mostly sunny and warm day is expected as temperatures will climb about 15-20 degrees higher than yesterday -- into the lower 80s by the afternoon. Cloud cover may gradually increase late in the day into the early evening as a cold front slowly approaches the area. At this time, the period of gusty winds to 35 mph or higher looks to be too short (1-2 hours) to warrant an Advisory (mainly right with the pre-frontal trough axis). Cloud cover, cold air advection, and precipitation should keep highs from climbing above the lower to mid 60s.
A few cloud streamers did form in the southeast flow off of some of the larger islands in the Lower Keys and Marathon, but have been short lived. Tomorrow during the late afternoon into the evening, a cool front approaching the islands will bridge over the Keys, with winds shifting out of the northwest.
Dry conditions with warming temperatures can be expected through through tomorrow as a ridge axis shifts east.
Mostly sunny skies have developed across the Northern Rockies as a ridge of high pressure continues to amplify across the region. High temperatures will reach into the 60s and low 70s for the lowest elevations in Clearwater and Idaho counties under a mix of clouds and sunshine. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop across north-central Idaho and northwest Montana Sunday late afternoon and evening as the atmosphere destabilizes with an approaching cold front and upper level trough.
217 PM MDT Sat Apr 15 2023 The trough responsible for the quick shot of snow overnight is now moving off to the east. Skies are mostly clear as ridging begins to build in behind it. This will make for a relatively pleasant Saturday, though highs will remain cooler than normal. Sunday will be dry and warmer as the ridge axis passes through Wyoming.
There are hints of a building upper level ridge by the end of the week resulting in a gradual warming and drying trend. Update: Added mention of sprinkles for this afternoon and evening as many of the high resolution models suggest there is potential for such an occurrence with no measurable precipitation.
Showers and thunderstorms will lift through the Midsouth this evening, along a Pacific cold front and aided by a strong upper level disturbance.
A strong cold front with heavy showers and storms will cross the region Sunday afternoon and evening.
/Issued 1234 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023/ /Through Sunday/ A robust cold front is progressing through the forecast area early this afternoon accompanied by a northwest wind shift and significant dewpoint drop. Should any storms be able to develop, they would be capable of becoming strong given the highly unstable and moderately sheared airmass in place.
Over the central CONUS, troughing continues to deepen. As this troughing shifts eastward Saturday night, lobes of vorticity and isentropic ascent will lead to increasing showers and thunderstorms well ahead of a surface front early Sunday.
245 PM EDT Sat Apr 15 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday) The short term portion of the forecast will be dominated by a cold frontal passage on Sunday. High pressure will shift east tonight in advance of an approaching cold front. The high res reflectivity models have been fairly consistent in taking another MCS into the northern GOMEX, cutting off any good inflow to storms along the front tomorrow.
1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front located near Highway 86 as of 2 AM will continue to sweep south this morning. Breezy northerly winds and cold air advection behind the front will lead to cooler high temperatures today. Along with calming winds late tonight, overnight temperatures will fall to near or below freezing in the southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper trough will move through eastern Montana today. Upper level ridge moves in today and will be over the area on Sunday with warmer temperatures.
Upper ridging will move into the forecast area overnight.
Sky will clear from west to east on Sunday as ridging builds in from the west. Ensemble guidance in agreement depicting ridging will influence the region in the early to mid week period. This will bring generally quiet weather, although with weaker mixing and a cooler airmass in place temperatures will remain below normal.
The upper level trough which assisted with the early morning snow continues to depart to the east, with generally drier weather in place this afternoon. The upper level trough pivoting across the region will continue to depart, with rising heights the trend moving forward into Sunday. Temperatures do return back to more normal values on Sunday and while dew points fall to the low teens to single digits and produce area wide minimum humidity values below 15 percent, don't anticipate any stronger winds/gusts on this day.
This is in response to a sharp upper-level trough swinging east across the Great Plains and interacting with a surface frontal boundary currently across southeast Oklahoma into northeast Texas. A cooler airmass will allow for high temperatures on Sunday to average in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
1225 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 (Today through Sunday afternoon) A weak cold front is passing through the CWA this morning, bringing light northerly winds. The mornings lows are around 5 degrees cooler than the previous day given clear skies, light winds, and cooler air moving in. An approaching upper trough moving across the Southern Plains and TX Panhandle today was expected to furnish some gustier winds this afternoon, but the system looks to stay too far north, so wind speeds for this afternoon have been decreased from previous forecast packages. Even with this chilly start, weak ridging and a return to southeasterly surface flow Sunday afternoon should rebound temperatures to the mid to upper 70s.
204 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Key Points: * Showers and Storms Continue for Eastern KS Today * Dry and Warmer for Sunday * Rain Chances Return Midweek * Fire Concerns Nearly Each Day Over the Coming Week As of 2:00 PM Saturday afternoon, a midlevel trough axis continues to slowly progress eastward across the Plains. All thunderstorm activity looks to exit the area by sunset as the eastward progression of the midlevel trough takes the lapse rate plume east as well.
Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected over the weekend with lighter winds. The main story for today will be high pressure developing across the West resulting in warming temperatures, light easterly winds, and clear sky conditions. A high pressure system will build over the region this weekend, allowing temperatures to warm and lighter winds to be present. Precipitation chances will also stay at zero across northern Arizona with this ridge in place. Our weather story will slightly change once we approach this coming work week, with an incoming low pressure system. This trough will sweep down from off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and primarily impact our winds and temperatures.
108 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front has already made it to around Enid to Elk City early this morning.
(The rest of today ) This morning, a cold front is just now entering western portions of the forecast area with the boundary near a KPNC-KCQB-KSRE line. There is also a pre-frontal trof just west of the Tulsa metro. However, the better chance of storms will be early to mid afternoon across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as the cold front surges to the east. Temperatures will be falling behind the cold front today creating a bit of a forecasting challenge.
(Through tonight ) Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed from northwest Arkansas into extreme eastern Oklahoma just ahead of a cold front that will move east of the area by around 5 pm.
1101 AM MDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Satellite pictures are showing the back side of the upper trough with north-northwesterly flow aloft, now in place over the CWA. Area radars and web cameras are showing some light snow showers in the high mountains and over the Cheyenne Ridge right now. Dry upper ridging moves in by tonight. Each one appears to be weaker, and with warming temperatures this morning the chance of snow accumulation is looking limited to the mountains, and mainly the high mountains. Sunday, an upper level ridge builds into the region from the west. Warming temperatures aloft and sunny conditions will help temperatures rebound back into the 60s across the lower elevations and 30s/40s for most of the high country.
Some "cooler" air lingers in the east per H850/H925 progs so didn't stray too far from the model blend.
634 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023 Relatively warm weather is expected today before rain returns with a crossing trough tonight. Dry, cooler, and more seasonable weather is then expected through the remainder of the week. Rain is again expected with approaching low pressure this weekend. A dusting to around half an inch of snow is possible north of I-80 and in the higher elevations of the Laurels. Building high pressure and dry advection behind the cold front should aid in clearing skies through the early afternoon. With a cooler, drier air mass in place, more seasonable high temperatures are expected.
The persistent pattern of a broad trough of low pressure across much of the western United States will continue through most of this week. This will continue below normal temperatures, with high temperatures only reaching into the low to mid 30s for western Montana valleys and 40s for the lower valleys of central Idaho. The main upper level low circulation is sitting off the Pacific Northwest coast. Waves of energy and moisture will continue to rotate around the main upper level low, bringing periods of snow showers to western Montana and north central Idaho. For the most part, impacts to road surfaces will be minimized through this afternoon due to the higher solar angle, allowing road surfaces to warm well above freezing despite cool air temperatures.
Sig snows will move out of the Marathon>Shawano area early, but that area got more snow and temps right at freezing will result in some FZDZ in the dry slot, so perhaps running to 18Z isn't a bad idea.