Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will build into the area for the beginning of the week bringing mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures today and tomorrow. As for Monday, skies will be sunny with highs reaching the lower 90s. The short term period will remain mostly rain-free due to abundant dry air and ridging.
Current surface observations show the cold front draped over central Kentucky with lingering showers ahead of the front. Southern Kentucky will continue to see scattered showers and storms overnight and through most of the day until the cold front exits the region to the south. The rest of the region will see drier air fill in behind the cold front. The low temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Going into today, the area will be looking at the movement of the ridge to allow for fog formation. The ridge axis has built over the area, and with ample moisture and light winds, expecting areas to start to see patchy fog through about 15z this morning before burning off/dissipating. The remainder of the day will see mainly sunny skies prevail as the current RAP40 500mb analysis shows an amplified ridge over the Rockies to push slowly east over the next 72 hours.
Highs will range from the upper 70s to low 80s, but a little cooler near Lake Michigan. An approaching upper trough and surface cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms across the north Monday afternoon.
Otherwise, low-level dry air will move in across a large portion of the area as high pressure builds into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley today into Monday, leaving dry conditions through Monday night. Tonight, sufficient radiational cooling will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than normal.
Strong mid/upper level ridge settling over Far West TX looks to be the main culprit and with this feature remaining in place on into tomorrow, this Advisory will likely be continued. But despite this ridging aloft, rain chances are expected to persist over southern/eastern parts of SE TX today (and tomorrow) as linger- ing deep moisture (PWs ~2") and the abundant daytime heating aids in the development of isolated/scattered activity on the seabreeze.
Unsettled conditions will continue over southeastern NC and northeastern SC on Monday afternoon as a cold front approaches the area. Expecting scattered thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon into early evening as a short wave trough moves through at h5. Highs today will generally reach the low 90s with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. A weak cold front will be working its way through the area on Monday, but is likely to linger near the coast during the late morning and early afternoon.
635 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 (Today through Monday) High pressure taking a stronger hold on the area will keep us dry today. Expect high temperatures today a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
The ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies today causing hot and dry conditions. The ridge of high pressure is still anticipated to break down on Monday as a low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest.
528 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Key Impact Messages: 1) Trending warmer and drier today. Discussion: The arrival of an area of high pressure that has been sitting across the southwest, will begin to shift toward the Front Range and usher in a less active pattern and warm temperatures toward seasonal normals for this time of year. The forecast through mid-week remains largely unchanged with warmer and drier conditions expected.
High pressure will continue to maintain the hot, above normal temperatures this week. While the high position isn't favorable for a significant ramp up into the convective season for all of southeast Arizona, enough moisture is expected for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly from Tucson south and eastward this week. The high will continue to be located just off to our east in southern New Mexico/northern Chihuahua today allowing for south to southeasterly flow to continue.
The main cold front associated with the stronger mid level wave in Canada doesn't approach our CWA until closer to 00Z in the north, and this limits forcing locally. There is a mixed signal in CAMs on initiation before the prefrontal trough/front arrive in the north (many show dry conditions in the south). Due to the higher shear near the front and mixed layer if a thunderstorm could develop enhanced wind/marginal hail could occur "if" there is enough instability to maintain the updraft. This isn't a classic low top supercell set-up though (would have more confidence if this was a warm front or a more organized mid level circulation was present).
And a more robust MCS moving south and eastward through Central Oklahoma associated with a strong H5 impulse within the northwest to southeasterly storm track around a strong ridge over or near El Paso, TX. Also, cannot rule out a lower-end severe risk with winds being the primary concern as mid/upper level temperatures remain a bit on the higher side.
628 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 (Today and tonight) The persistent upper level anticyclone over northern Mexico will begin to amplify and expand northward today, with a 500mb ridge axis centered over New Mexico progged to extend northward over the central Rockies by this evening. The aforementioned expansion of the upper ridge and its associated subsidence is expected to prevent thunderstorm development today despite the rich moisture in place.
Otherwise, in the lower levels this AM, a low is present over the Great Lakes with a frontal boundary extending SW toward AR and back into the TX Panhandle. In the upper levels there is a large scale trough extending out of C Canada into E Conus with ridging over the WRN U. Through the short term the upper low will dig some as it cycles EWD with WNW flow initially over AL becoming more NW.
Water vapor this morning indicates we're between weather systems; a trough is lifting over the Northeast US while another one digs in over Manitoba entering western Ontario, and a third disturbance is streaking through the Central Plains.
Although certainty is low, but with a nearly stalled surface boundary/cold front stretched across northern Texas with an abundance of moist unstable air in place across northeast Texas, will keep low POPs in southeast/southcentral Oklahoma for early Monday morning but severe storms will be unlikely.
They have really struggled to grow, which is expected given the drier air sampled in the lower levels by this morning's 12z sounding. A surface analysis reveals the Florida Keys are still situated along a ridge axis extending from the western North Atlantic across the Bahamas. The ridge axis will continue to slowly progress north, and winds will likely become variable as the land masses heat up. Temperatures will continue to rise into the lower to mid 90s through the afternoon. From synopsis, a weak Atlantic ridge will lift slowly northward from the Keys waters into South Florida through midweek.
644 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 (Today through Monday) Radar early this morning shows widely scattered showers continue across Middle Tennessee ahead of a cold front currently nearing the Ohio River. As cold front continues southward through the day and main upper trough axis moves overhead, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near the I-40 corridor by midday per CAMs.
Southeasterly lake breeze this afternoon may kick up an isolated shower or two along the Kettle Moraine, but chances are low due to dry air at the lower levels. MH (Issued 248 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023) Today through Monday: A typical summer day is ahead for today, with highs warming into the low to mid 80s.
622 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 (Today through Monday) 500mb ridging strengthens through Monday with the atmosphere over South Texas continuing to heat up and dry out. With the center of the ridge anchored well northwest of Deep South Texas, 1000-500mb thicknesses are steady state at 583-586dm which suggest highs only slightly above (2-4 degrees) mid July averages which range from 94 degrees at Brownsville and 98 at McAllen.
550 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 A cold front moves across today, with showers and thunderstorms. High pressure crosses during the first half of the work week amid a warming trend. A cold front will push across the area today. The precipitation will end this afternoon and evening as the cold front moves off to the east. High pressure will gradually move across the region throughout the beginning of the work week, providing for widespread dry weather outside of a few isolated showers/storms across the northern higher terrain Monday afternoon.
450 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Key Impact Messages: 1) Trending warmer and drier today. Discussion: The arrival of an area of high pressure that has been sitting across the southwest, will begin to shift toward the Front Range and usher in a less active pattern and warm temperatures toward seasonal normals for this time of year. The forecast through mid-week remains largely unchanged with warmer and drier conditions expected.
(This afternoon through Monday Night) The cold front is knocking on the door of the TN/KY border. Monday will bring pleasant humidity levels and temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s.
Localized damaging wind gusts are the primary severe threat with hail a lesser threat given poor mid level lapse rates and high freezing levels. However, a broad trough will persist across the region with an enhanced belt of 30-35kt 500mb flow.
The dry weather will continue Monday and Monday night as an upper ridge over the southwest CONUS begins to build east.
Region remains under the influence of an upper level high pressure system which is keeping temps above normal while at the same time advecting moisture into the area. Nation into Pinal County and the lower Gila River Valley where temperatures and heat risk levels will remain a threat for the next several days.
The ridge of high pressure centered over the Northern Rockies this afternoon will contribute to an afternoon of above-normal temperatures and mostly clear skies for the remainder of the day. A low pressure circulation off the coast of the California-Oregon border will move northeast over the Pacific Northwest tonight through Monday. These factors include ample moisture being transported by the low, featuring precipitable water values of over 1 inch. Positive vorticity will be provided by the spin of the low itself. A cold front south of the circulation will move through the Northern Rockies in the afternoon, enhancing lift in the atmosphere along the frontal boundary. Finally, there will be a favorably positioned jet streak aloft to the south and east of the low, providing further enhancement of vertical motion.
155 PM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 An upper ridge is dominating our weather this afternoon with dry and warm conditions. A few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over and near the mountains through this evening (20-40% chance) but low vertical wind shear and a capping inversion in the middle levels of the troposphere likely will prevent shower/storm activity from occurring over the lower elevations. The trough will bring weak large-scale ascent over the area in the afternoon that will help to destabilize the atmosphere enough for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the area. The southeasterly winds over southeast MT will also bring warm and moist air to the lower levels that should fuel more shower and thunderstorm activity.
1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 (Rest of Today) Broad cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of eastern North America today, as an upper low shifts southeastward into northern Ontario. Rain-cooled outflow air will likely spread out to the north and east of the MCV, with this outflow boundary expected to interact with a southward drifting cold front to initiate thunderstorms across east-central AR/southwestern TN/northwestern MS within the next couple of hours.
150 PM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Upper level ridge producing today's heat will be flattened tomorrow as a backdoor cold front comes in from the northeast during the morning. At the moment not really seeing much precipitation with initial frontal passage in the morning but by the afternoon it will act as a focusing mechanism in combination with an upper level Low approaching from the west from British Columbia to set off some showers and thunderstorms.
1245 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 (Today and tonight) The persistent upper level anticyclone over northern Mexico will begin to amplify and expand northward today, with a 500mb ridge axis centered over New Mexico progged to extend northward over the central Rockies by this evening. The aforementioned expansion of the upper ridge and its associated subsidence is expected to prevent thunderstorm development today despite the rich moisture in place.
Overnight, weak upper wave approaching the area will begin to generate some cloudiness along the Continental Divide after midnight, and a few light showers will be possible early Monday morning over the higher peaks as upward motion spreads into the area. Main detriment to storm formation will be fairly dry air mass in place across srn Colorado, with dewpoints in the 30s at most over the high terrain, while values fall into the 40s along the I-25 corridor and lower 50s across the plains as low level winds veer southwesterly.
Cooler and drier air settling into the region with the front, especially north of I-40, will help lows cool off tonight, possibly into the upper 50s in the typical cool valley spots. Lacy (Monday afternoon through Sunday) Monday afternoon should be quiet and warmer than recent days with the thought that there will not be convective cloud debris to hold temps back.
Wonder if the shorter range models are showing warmer air aloft than the GFS, which would effectively cap off or kill the convective chance as it dives south. The combination of the hot max temperatures and dewpoints in the low 70s, will lead to muggy afternoon conditions with heat index values of 105 to 110 possible. Some uncertainty about convective chance for Wed afternoon/evening, but with the higher PW air lurking about, a few hot or miss storms look possible. Cooler and seasonal temperatures are expected for the end of the week. Ketcham These are the days that aviators hope for with little if any cloud cover and light winds due to high pressure over the area.
1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 (Today through Monday) Synopsis: A closed, 594 dam upper high pressure center remains forecast to develop over West Texas & southeastern New Mexico later today as longwave ridging amplifies over western portions of the continent. Highs should be 1-2 degrees warmer on Monday relative to this afternoon. PM dew points will range from the mid-60s over the west to the low-mid 70s across the east, with temp/dew point spreads supporting advisory-level heat indices over the Winter Garden and along/east of I-35 each day.
(Rest of Today) Broad cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of eastern North America today, as an upper low shifts southeastward into northern Ontario. Rain-cooled outflow air will likely spread out to the north and east of the MCV, with this outflow boundary expected to interact with a southward drifting cold front to initiate thunderstorms across east-central AR/southwestern TN/northwestern MS within the next couple of hours.
The trailing lobe extending south from the Ontario upper low has exited and will soon give way to a prolonged period with varied degrees of active northwest flow turning our pattern back to something more typical for mid July. This will set the stage for thunderstorm development during the afternoon, triggered by an approaching front driven by a strong western Great Lakes short wave falling into the persistent Ontario trough.
1219 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Key Messages: - Dry Sunday with slightly cooler than normal temperatures.
Ridging will be staying to our south with south to southwest flow persistent over the area.
The cloudy skies combined with a ridge building to the southwest should inhibit any thunderstorm development for the rest of today.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows upper circulation pushing north through California/Nevada early this afternoon, helping to amplify ridge over East Idaho. Monday expected to be warmer, with probabilities of exceeding 90F extending further north up the Snake Plain. Breezy south/southwest winds expected on Monday as surface thermal low strengthens from NW Utah north across Idaho under ridge axis.
Although dewpoints will begin to fall in the wake of the trough, lingering cloud cover and elevated winds will keep lows in the m-u 60s.
Dewpoints across the region at the noon hour ranged from the upper 60s in the Hill Country to the lower 70s elsewhere. Current readings are near where they were 24 hours ago and dewpoints yesterday mixed out into the lower 60s to lower 70s across the area.
Evening-Tonight: A pleasant and dry afternoon across the Ozarks area with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s. Expect cool overnight temperatures in the lower 60s, with a few locations in the upper 50s in low- lying areas of the eastern Ozarks. Monday: An upper level ridge builds across the desert southwest into the Plains to begin the week.
328 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 A cold front will push through the area tonight through Monday evening.
High pressure currently centered over Iowa will build overhead tonight, leading to clear skies and nearly calm winds. As the high shifts into the Ohio River Valley, southwesterly return flow will help boost high temperatures into the middle to upper 80s on Monday.
Highs will be much warmer than in recent days, in the mid 80s to lower 90s. At the surface a backdoor cold front will approach the North Dakota/Manitoba border this evening around 00z to 06z time frame. A weak wave will ride down the ridge tonight and clip our area in the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains. Lows will be around normal for the year, in the lower 50s to lower 60s. We remain in northwest flow aloft on Monday, but the ridge axis to our west will slowly move towards eastern Montana by late in the day. At the surface, the backdoor cold front will stall out across southwest North Dakota or maybe even into western South Dakota.
Clearing skies and tranquil conditions can be expected tonight as high pressure begins to build across the FA.
214 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 High pressure advancing from Missouri to Kentucky will provide us with pleasant midsummer weather during the Short Term. The main thing working against widespread fog will be dry air coming in behind the departing cold front that brought us the showers and thunderstorms today and yesterday. Low-lying areas will be even cooler.
Deep layer shear will be on the order of 25-35 kt on Monday with the broad mid level trough still in place.
Cooler than normal temperatures continue over Central California through Monday due to low pressure aloft passing over the district. A ridge of high pressure will build over the Desert Southwest through the middle of the week, leading to a warming trend. The ridge axis shifts west and further strengthens by the end of the week, leading to a dangerous heat wave over the area.
147 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Showers will taper off through this evening as low pressure shifts east of the region.
A deep subtropical ridge persists over the southwestern United States. The ridge will continue expanding eastward into Monday, acting to further suppress PoPs while cranking up those temperatures.
1104 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Key Impact Messages: 1) Trending warmer and drier today. Discussion: The arrival of an area of high pressure that has been sitting across the southwest, will begin to shift toward the Front Range and usher in a less active pattern and warm temperatures toward seasonal normals for this time of year. The forecast through mid-week remains largely unchanged with warmer and drier conditions expected.
335 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 A deepening upper level trough and moisture-laden cold front will swing through this evening into early Monday.
High pressure will be continuing across the region allowing temperatures to climb back into the triple digits.
Surface analysis shows that a ridge axis continues to slide ever so slowly northward across the extreme southeast Gulf waters. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 90.
Since the midlevel ridge axis crossing Indiana will lag slightly behind the diurnal peak, the strongest warming trend will hold just west of our area.
1223 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 (Today through Monday) 500mb ridging strengthens through Monday with the atmosphere over South Texas continuing to heat up and dry out. With the center of the ridge anchored well northwest of Deep South Texas, 1000-500mb thicknesses are steady state at 583-586dm which suggest highs only slightly above (2-4 degrees) mid July averages which range from 94 degrees at Brownsville and 98 at McAllen.
339 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 (Issued 339 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023) Tonight through Monday night: Temperatures are approaching highs in the lower 80s away from the lakeshore regions, with some diurnal cumulus clouds slowly dissipating. Southwesterly winds will increase throughout the day Monday, with low moisture content in the lower levels and clear skies. However, chances remain low for precipitation and thunder until late Monday night as the cold front progresses southward through the area.
1247 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 (Today through Monday) High pressure taking a stronger hold on the area will keep us dry today. Expect high temperatures today a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
A weak surface cold front has progressed into portions of north Texas. Otherwise, temperatures will run from the low-60s north to low-70s south/Red River vicinity.
334 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 A cold front will push through the area tonight through Monday evening.
1221 PM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 A ridge of high pressure building over the region today will warm temperatures by 5 to 10 degrees compared to yesterday, bringing them close to seasonal averages. Isolated showers and storms are possible over the higher terrain, but overall coverage of rainfall will be much lower than the last several afternoons. Mostly clear skies are forecast overnight as the ridge continues to build. Monday will feel quite warm given the cooler than average conditions as of late, with highs in the low 90s in basins east of the Continental Divide, and 80s for valleys and basins west of the Divide. This is about 5 degrees warmer than normal. Winds remain light under the apex of the ridge, and large scale sinking air aloft will again help to suppress convective thunderstorm activity.
Issued 1017 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 At mid-morning a cold front was draped across central Kentucky roughly from Carlisle to Campbellsville to Scottsville. Though there will be enough instability and deep layer shear for organized convection, weak DCAPE and lapse rates with seasonably high freezing levels will lead to very low chances of anything severe. Current surface observations show the cold front draped over central Kentucky with lingering showers ahead of the front. Southern Kentucky will continue to see scattered showers and storms overnight and through most of the day until the cold front exits the region to the south. The rest of the region will see drier air fill in behind the cold front. The low temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 50s and low 60s.
High pressure builds and intensifies over the area this week bringing another round of above-normal temperatures.
205 PM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 It's a much quieter day across the region as high pressure begins to build into northeast Colorado. Shallow cumulus decks can be seen on satellite developing over the high country, where an isolated shower or weak thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon. That isolated convection could extend farther east over the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide. The warming and drying trend accelerates tomorrow, and we should see highs climb into the low to mid 90's for all of the lower elevations. We'll be under the northeast side of the ridge over the southwest this week, with warm dry air aloft.