Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front will sweep eastward overnight with strong pressure rises upstream and observed winds supporting the ongoing wind advisory.
Despite, road/ground temps continuing to remain above freezing, these snowfall rates are overcoming this obstacle, and many roads now have snow accumulating on them across portions of central Kansas. This snow band is focused along the TROWAL axis around the back side of a wound up mid/upper level low. A small but potent mid/upper low is working its way across the central plains this morning bringing a mix of rain and snow to portions of Kansas and Missouri. Northerly or northwesterly winds will gust to around 40 to 45 mph at times, and with temperatures near freezing, wind chills will be in the teens area-wide during the morning hours. This stratus deck looks to hang around until early Friday afternoon before finally clearing which should keep afternoon highs on Friday in the low 40s.
09Z water vapor imagery showed a closed low propagating across northeast OK putting the forecast area under the deformation zone north of the system. Surface obs show the surface reflection of the low pressure system over northern AK with the cold front pushing into east TX. The main change to the forecast in the short term was to hold onto the low clouds a lot longer. Mid level ridging is forecast to develop by the weekend.
Low pressure now over northwest Arkansas with trailing cold front south of the low into far east Texas. Cold front will sweep through the Mid-South this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be found along and ahead of the cold front.
Upslope cold air advection with steep low level lapse rates will be present at the start of the period, with a high amplitude upper level trough axis and a moisture pool beneath it over the central Appalachians and lower Great Lakes. The snow will be winding down on Friday night as the trough axis moves east and cold air advection eases.
Detailed discussion: High pressure will continue to build in over the region. Some of the higher mountains will still have strong and gusty westerly winds across the peaks with blowing snow possible. Northwesterly winds for the plains will eventually become more westerly during the afternoon, which will help to adiabatically warm the cooler airmass in place. Calming winds and mostly clear skies will lead to effective radiational cooling, therefore some of the higher mountain valleys will get down into the low single digits and possibly below zero for a few locations in the San Luis Valley. The plains will generally be in the upper teens to mid 20s, with the coldest temperatures getting down into the low teens for the lower Arkansas River Valley. Expect lows to drop into the single digits to teens for the higher elevations as well.
430 AM MST Thu Jan 12 2023 Current surface map places backdoor cold front across eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Upper ridge builds across the Northern Plains later today into Friday.
(Today through Friday) Key Messages - Cooler today with more seasonable temperatures tomorrow - Elevated fire weather conditions across most of South Texas The cold front is currently on the doorstep of our CWA and is expected to sweep across region and move offshore by 6 am this morning, clearing the coastal waters by mid-morning. 20" by tomorrow morning as an upper level ridge moves into the area. Cooler temperatures are expected today with most of the area ranging between 70-75 degrees except for the Victoria Crossroads, where they will drop into the mid to upper 60s. With the cooler air moving into the area tonight, temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 30s across the northern Brush Country with the rest of the CWA ranging from the lower to upper 40s.
624 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (Today through Friday Night) The cold front moving through the CWA is managing to produce some very isolated activity this morning. In the wake of the front, high pressure building S down the Plains will help to maintain dry, cool and quiet weather through the end of the week (and likely into the weekend). Temperatures this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 60s (with the highest temperatures likely occurring now). Tomorrow night, freezing temperatures will be possible in the far northern counties.
551 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 A warm front will bring widespread rain across the region today. Much cooler temperatures and a changeover to snow can be expected overnight into Friday. The associated cold front is progged to cross the region over the course of the evening.
650 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 Aviation -- Fog early this morning -- Areas of dense fog affecting Kalamazoo to Ionia toward the east have developed amid light winds in a weak trough. As the trough departs to the east, winds will gradually increase from the west and shift north. The upper level synoptic trough will amplify over the region with phasing of the northern and southern streams tonight, while relatively cold 850 mb air (-10 C) advects through Friday morning.
(Today and tonight) A cold front is currently pushing southeast into the Hill Country this morning, while a strong upper-level low is moving through Oklahoma and Kansas. As one might expect, a much cooler airmass has pushed into west Texas. Model soundings show 850mb temperatures of 0-2 deg C, which is about 15 deg C cooler than the past two days! Despite the sunshine, the resulting high temperatures should only reach the upper 50s to around 60 this afternoon, although the winds will undoubtedly make it feel cooler. By this evening, the storm system will have moved into the Tennessee Valley, which will allow cool high pressure to build in. Low temperatures should easily fall to the low to mid 30s through the night, with the usual low spots falling into the upper 20s.
(Today through Friday Night) The cold front moving through the CWA is managing to produce some very isolated activity this morning. In the wake of the front, high pressure building S down the Plains will help to maintain dry, cool and quiet weather through the end of the week (and likely into the weekend). Temperatures this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 60s (with the highest temperatures likely occurring now). Tomorrow night, freezing temperatures will be possible in the far northern counties.
The dry and possibly foggy conditions are being driven by a ridge pattern currently over the state. This ridge pattern is steering the latest disturbance north and avoiding the district. Yet, while some stronger winds still exist over Central California, the passage of the ridge pattern will diminish the winds and increase the fog potential going into Friday. Ensemble upper-air analysis has a good handle on ridge axis placement and the potential track the ridge will take in the next 24 to 36 hours.
It is not quite evident on the the 12/00Z H500 hand analysis map but a large amplified ridge will be building over the Intermountain West today and translating across the Rockies tomorrow. One exception will be the Uinta Basin where it looks like cold air stratus is likely to settle in as we build in warmer air aloft.
High pressure will maintain stable conditions area-wide through Friday.
(Today through Friday afternoon) As the upper low that brought the wind yesterday moves east today, an upper ridge over the Great Basin will build in from the west. By Friday, the ridge axis moves over the Rockies as the region remains on the edge of high pressure. Have gusty NW wind early this morning as a cold front moves through.
Along the I-25 Corridor readings may rise into the lower to mid 40s in the Denver metro area with slightly cooler readings further north. We'll have warming temperatures under the ridge Friday, with winds limited to the ridges and east slopes.
720 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 Looking like another pleasant day across the area as high pressure holds on with sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the 70s to around 80 degrees. Late tonight and Friday morning a strong cold front will move across the region preceded and accompanied by showers and a few thunderstorms.
441 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 A warm front will bring widespread rain across the region today. Much cooler temperatures and a changeover to snow can be expected overnight into Friday. The associated cold front is progged to cross the region over the course of the evening.
540 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Low pressure now over northwest Arkansas with trailing cold front south of the low into far east Texas. Cold front will sweep through the Mid-South this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be found along and ahead of the cold front.
Satellite imagery shows the upstream trough digging over the eastern Pacific. The frontal band ahead of the trough remains off the coast and is becoming more north-south oriented and slowing its eastward progress. The next incoming trough will begin to nudge the front inland on Friday and precipitation is forecast to begin in the morning across the Coast Range and western edge of the Central Valley, then spread east across the remainder of the valley and into the Sierra during the afternoon.
444 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front is currently pushing southeast into the Hill Country this morning, while a strong upper-level low is moving through Oklahoma and Kansas. As one might expect, a much cooler airmass has pushed into west Texas. Model soundings show 850mb temperatures of 0-2 deg C, which is about 15 deg C cooler than the past two days! Despite the sunshine, the resulting high temperatures should only reach the upper 50s to around 60 this afternoon, although the winds will undoubtedly make it feel cooler. By this evening, the storm system will have moved into the Tennessee Valley, which will allow cool high pressure to build in. Low temperatures should easily fall to the low to mid 30s through the night, with the usual low spots falling into the upper 20s.
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington NC 635 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 High pressure slides farther offshore today, before a strong and fast moving cold front crosses tonight into early Friday. High pressure moves back in over the weekend as a coastal low develops well offshore. Somewhat mild for a change this morning due to widespread mid/high clouds and low-level WAA ahead of an approaching low pressure system, also precluding fog development thus far. Most active weather of the entire forecast will be during the short term period, as aforementioned system and sfc cold front traverse the local area. Temps Friday night will fall down close to freezing, especially away from the coast, with continued CAA. High pressure finally builds in over the weekend as a deepening coastal low offshore lifts away from the Mid Atlantic.
539 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (Today through Friday) Patchy fog has formed over the Ranchlands early this morning and has the potential to spread south towards the RGV ahead of the cold front, but confidence is low. The cold front is currently passing through the CRP CWA. However, CAA lags behind the front and cooler temperatures won't arrive until tonight. Tonight will be cooler with lows dipping into the 40s.
535 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) As the upper low that brought the wind yesterday moves east today, an upper ridge over the Great Basin will build in from the west. By Friday, the ridge axis moves over the Rockies as the region remains on the edge of high pressure. Have gusty NW wind early this morning as a cold front moves through.
Temperatures will remain fairly steady today, just above freezing.
High pressure builds in across NV the next couple days the southwesterly flow pushing temperatures a few degrees above normal.
With temperatures near or slightly above freezing for the most part and a very limited temporal window for the snow, any accumulation should remain minor and limited to mainly grassy surfaces.
524 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (Today through Friday) Key Messages - Cooler today with more seasonable temperatures tomorrow - Elevated fire weather conditions across most of South Texas The cold front is currently on the doorstep of our CWA and is expected to sweep across region and move offshore by 6 am this morning, clearing the coastal waters by mid-morning. 20" by tomorrow morning as an upper level ridge moves into the area. Cooler temperatures are expected today with most of the area ranging between 70-75 degrees except for the Victoria Crossroads, where they will drop into the mid to upper 60s. With the cooler air moving into the area tonight, temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 30s across the northern Brush Country with the rest of the CWA ranging from the lower to upper 40s.
The Lower Keys, especially Big Pine, radiated out early in the night, falling into the lower to mid 50s. A trailing cold front will enter the northwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico later this morning and quickly slide east. The bigger story however, will be strong northwest to north winds and much cooler air in the wake of the frontal passage.
341 AM PST Thu Jan 12 2023 There will be dry and warmer weather into Friday with weak offshore flow bringing greater warming to the coast and valleys today with gusty northeast winds to 35 mph near the coastal slopes of the mountains.
The cloud could keep low temps warmer than forecast if they hold thru the night at any one location.
Showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe, are beginning to enter our southeast MS and southwest AL counties in association with a cold front. Gusty southwesterly winds today, with gusts up to 30 to 35 knots, will turn northwesterly this evening in the wake of the cold front. /96 A deep trough digging into the lower MS Valley has resulted in the development of strong to severe convection this morning. As we go into the afternoon, surface winds are forecast to veer to more of a southwest direction, which in turn, will limit directional shear in the lower levels. Given substantial speed shear present in the lower levels, we will still have to keep a close eye on any circulations that may develop within the evolving QLCS along and just ahead of the synoptic cold front.
1252 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 Aviation -- Fog early this morning -- Areas of dense fog affecting Kalamazoo to Ionia toward the east have developed amid light winds in a weak trough. As the trough departs to the east, winds will gradually increase from the west and shift north. The upper level synoptic trough will amplify over the region with phasing of the northern and southern streams tonight, while relatively cold 850 mb air (-10 C) advects through Friday morning.
Upper level ridge begins to move into the region which will signal the beginning of some quiet weather for much of the region. Heading into Friday, the upper level ridge builds overhead and temperatures are expected to warm quite nicely for this time of year. A welcomed warmup is expected to the start of the weekend, with upper level ridging pushing eastward into the region earlier in the week and remaining across the Intermountain West.
As the cold front pushes across the forecast area, temperatures will fall rapidly as all eyes turn to the possibility of some light snowfall across the forecast area. Total snowfall accumulations of 1-2 inches can be expected specifically across the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau. Since it's been quite warm over the last several days, think the only locations that will have issues with accumulations will be the Plateau region, specifically the higher elevations. The first round of snow will occur overnight and into Friday morning before temperatures warm to near or slightly above freezing.
1137 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 (Today through Friday Night) The cold front moving through the CWA is managing to produce some very isolated activity this morning. In the wake of the front, high pressure building S down the Plains will help to maintain dry, cool and quiet weather through the end of the week (and likely into the weekend). Temperatures this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 60s (with the highest temperatures likely occurring now). Tomorrow night, freezing temperatures will be possible in the far northern counties.
Will have dry conditions tonight through Friday as upper level ridge pushes east. Temperatures will remain well above normal for mid January in the short term with many highs Friday in low elevations above freezing and near 40 degrees in the Lower Snake Plain and Magic Valley.
1028 AM MST Thu Jan 12 2023 Current surface map places backdoor cold front across eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Upper ridge builds across the Northern Plains later today into Friday.
(This evening through Friday) Strong gusty north winds will decouple early this evening, with winds becoming light as high pressure builds directly over the region by morning. With strong radiational nighttime cooling conditions, temperatures will be falling to lows near the freezing mark, with low lying and valley areas falling into the mid and upper 20s, particularly along and southeast of an Ozona to San Angelo to Brownwood line. Highs Friday rise into the lower 60s, as south winds of 5 to 10 mph return midday and afternoon.
234 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis mid-level troffing extending from near James Bay across far northern Lake Superior to northern MN. Conditions should be fairly steady state into the evening under deep moisture and weak forcing as mid-level trof axis drops s. DGZ should also slip into the upper portion of the lake induced convective layer, but that will occur as deeper moisture begins to depart with passage of mid-level trof. Maybe an inch or 2, greatest in the high terrain where upsloping northerly winds add a boost. As it turns into Friday and the day progresses, drier air and shifting winds on the backside of departing trough will cut off LES from W to E. High pressure moseying on through will then keep PoPs in the not-mentionable category into the weekend.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop east of the Mississippi River as a trough moves through this afternoon. A cold front is currently over northeast Arkansas and is expected to make it way across the region bringing temperatures into the 40s and low 50s by late afternoon. Low pressure now over northwest Arkansas with trailing cold front south of the low into far east Texas. Cold front will sweep through the Mid-South this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be found along and ahead of the cold front.
/NEW/ /Through Tomorrow/ Breezy and cooler conditions will continue this afternoon across North and Central Texas in wake of the Pacific front. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the 30s region wide, with most of our far western counties falling below freezing. High clouds may keep portions of the Big Country just above freezing, but low-lying and sheltered areas should still fall below freezing.
Bufkit indicates some loss of depth in cloud thickness as the high shifts farther southeast early Friday morning. While this may limit flurries, there is some concern that it could result in patchy freezing drizzle instead. Upper ridging builds in Friday leading to increasing temperatures, especially west river where temps could creep just above freezing. The warmer air overriding the snow pack could also result in more fog potential overnight, as well, on Friday night.
(The rest of today) Strong upper low that brought a few storms to the area last night and some light snow across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning will continue to move off to the east throughout the day. Gusty northerly winds will also continue into the afternoon, though gusts should begin to relax somewhat later this afternoon as surface ridging spreads in from the west. Much cooler temperatures, back down to near seasonal averages will be common today with highs creeping into the 40s. Some mid 40s will be possible along and west of the Highway 75 corridor this afternoon where some clearing is likely.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Fairly boring weather in the short term with upper ridging dominating both today and Friday, keeping us bone-dry. A cold front moved through this morning and winds have shifted out of the north, so the colder air is hanging around for a bit and highs this afternoon won't break out of the 50s for most. By Friday, ridging will be firmly in place and highs will return to the low 60s, cooler than the past several days but still above- normal. Light southerly winds and increasing cloud cover Friday night should help to keep overnight temperatures above freezing in the 30s and low 40s.
224 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Light rain continues to move southeastward across the Quad State following the cold front. On the synoptic scale, a fairly deep mid-level trough is positioned over the Midwest while a ridge is centered on the Great Basin. Northwesterly to NNWerly flow is positioned over the Quad State tonight as a weak disturbance drops into the trough and moving through the region. The system finally moves out late in the day, allowing for skies trending clearer and lows dropping to the low to mid 20s Friday night.
256 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Current surface analysis places high pressure stretching through the northern and central plains, with low over the Ohio River Valley. On Friday, with the exception of the possibility of some morning fog, a rather quiet day is is on tap as upper level ridging works towards the area.
921 AM PST Thu Jan 12 2023 There will be dry and warmer weather into Friday with weak offshore flow bringing greater warming to the coast and valleys today, with gusty northeast winds to 35 mph near the coastal slopes of the mountains. With the minor Santa Ana conditions and weak transitory ridging affecting our area today, look for temperatures to soar to above normal levels for coast-valley areas with max temperatures near 75 degrees today.
There will be potential for a few showers and storms ahead of the cold front as it advances east, but much of the instability has been consumed. Temperatures will fall after sunset behind the line of storms with readings falling to near freezing far northwest toward daybreak on Friday morning with readings in the mid 30s across the northwest third of the area and in the upper 30s for the rest of the area except the far southeast with readings in the lower 40s.
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington NC 130 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 High pressure slides farther offshore today, before a strong and fast moving cold front crosses tonight into early Friday. High pressure moves back in over the weekend as a coastal low develops well offshore. Most active weather of the entire forecast will be during the short term period, as aforementioned system and sfc cold front traverse the local area. Temps Friday night will fall down close to freezing, especially away from the coast, with continued CAA. High pressure finally builds in over the weekend as a deepening coastal low offshore lifts away from the Mid Atlantic.
318 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 Discussion/Marine - Risk for flurries/freezing drizzle tonight Low level moisture is shown to increase this evening as the northerly flow strengthens on the backside of the departing storm. and feature mainly light snow showers as the temperature falls below freezing.
One more very quiet weather day across our area with high pressure starting to shift east out of the area in response to a cold front that will be heading our way overnight. After frontal passage we will see a quick change in winds speed and direction and cooler air diving in.
Northerly surface winds are keeping temperatures near average today in the wake of a cold frontal passage yesterday evening. A broad upper level ridge will move eastward across the Rockies towards the Plains states tomorrow.