Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
713 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 (Today and tonight) A cold front is located across central KY/NW Middle TN, identified by a sharp dewpoint gradient.
534 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 A cold front is entering the JKL forecast area from the northwest early this morning.
Upper ridging soon takes over the entire area, bringing with it downslope warming and an increase in temperatures.
A cold front is pushing southeastward and is helping to fuel scattered showers and some thunderstorms today. The backside of the front will tend to favor rain over thunderstorms, therefore thunderstorm activity should decrease by late afternoon as the cold front exits the area.
604 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 (Today and tonight) Surface ridging across the Midwest today as the upslope easterly surface winds are maintained across the forecast area. Temperatures will remain cool today with highs in the lower 60s along with some lingering high clouds that will clear through the afternoon hours. Areas along the Caprock have a better potential of below freezing temperatures, versus off the Caprock.
551 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Convective debris cirrus was streaming northeastward in very fast jet stream flow from AK/LA/TX to the Lower Great Lakes. The post frontal cooler airmass settles into the region this morning with southeast Michigan residing on the southern end of this thermal trough extending down from Ontario. This cooler airmass is supporting better mixing through the morning hours bringing gusty winds of 25 to 30 mph. Temperatures tonight drop down to around the freezing mark supported by clearing skies. A broad high pressure will be the main influence over the region Friday and through the weekend bringing dry conditions through most of this period.
And, with temperatures expected to rise above freezing today, this will crust the snow more. Otherwise, it will be a dry and chilly day but generally about 6 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, starting the melting process. Friday looks like a dry day with gusty wind continuing in the east but temperatures climbing again, about 6 to 8 degrees warmer than today.
Surface and low level cold front is up against our southeastern counties and may have a hard time getting completely cleared through the day with the larger scale flow aloft moving roughly parallel. Temperatures should be warmer, only mitigated by light northeasterly winds advecting in colder air.
Slightly warmer highs around 60 degrees are on tap today with the light and variable winds through the evening. Light winds gradually shift to the south as the ridge axis shifts east this evening, increasing Friday afternoon from 10 to 15 mph sustained.
955 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 High pressure will build eastward across the forecast area through Thursday. This high will strengthen over the region on Friday and persist through the weekend. Satellite imagery shows an extensive cloud deck across the lower Great Lakes Region. The upper level low over Ontario slides northeast towards Hudson Bay today but does not really push east across the Great Lakes until Friday. Dry weather is anticipated across the area through the near term as high pressure continues to build eastward across the Great Lakes region.
Latest IND ACARS soundings shows a thick saturated layer about 5 km deep from 400mb up to 200 mb indicating the cloud deck is fairly high up agl with much drier air in the lowest 6 km of the column. Northerly flow and cold air advection in the lower levels will result in temperatures today nearly 20+ degrees colder than yesterday. Expect highs by the late afternoon in the lower to possibly mid 50s if some sunshine can be realized. As a deep cyclone over Ontario moves eastward today, its trailing jet entrance region will be over the mid-Mississippi Valley, extending into Indiana. Also, we went with the lowest end of guidance for dew points since moist layer is shallow and should mix out more readily than most models indicate.
519 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 (Today) A slow-moving cold front will continue to nudge toward the Tennessee Valley today. The other aspect of the forecast will be the temperatures themselves as a relatively sizable gradient will setup across the region today, with locations in northeast Alabama peaking in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees (ahead of the front) and locations across northwest Alabama (behind the front) peaking in the low to mid 60s.
A weak weather system will approach the region tonight into Friday which will result in gusty ridgetop winds, chances for light Sierra snow showers, and light lower elevation rain with limited spillover into western Nevada.
621 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 High pressure will afford mostly sunny skies, along with a much drier and cooler air mass through the region today.
445 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Cold air continues to filter into the region in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Lows are expected to land in the 30s for the majority of the CWA, with some locations falling near or below freezing due to efficient radiational cooling caused by clear skies and light winds.
(Tonight) A cold front was slowly pushing eastward across our forecast area. Even cooler further to the west with Memphis and Jackson at 49 and Corinth 52 degrees. Gradually cooler air will filter in with lows by daybreak Friday ranging from the mid/upper 40s west to mid 50s east. Along with the cooler air, chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase as we go into the late evening and overnight.
(This evening through Friday) An upper level trough currently centered over southern California and Arizona will slowly approach West Central Texas over the next 24 hours. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible overnight, mainly for areas south and east of a Clyde to Mertzon line, with the highest rain chances across our southeast counties. With the approach of the aforementioned upper level trough, rain chances will increase across the area on Friday, with the highest PoPs continuing across the northwest Hill country and decreasing as you head north and west. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s across the northern half of the area to the mid to upper 50s across the southern half of the area.
West of the mountains, warming trend will briefly pause Friday with a passing low pressure system to our north.
(Through Tonight) The main concern tonight is again the potential for late season freezing temperatures in parts of northeast Oklahoma. The existing Freeze Watch will be converted to a Freeze Warning, as some of the same areas that froze last night should experience similar tonight despite the high cloud cover. Dew points remain in the low to mid 20s for much of that area, and easterly winds should drop off some this evening.
Have stayed close to what was in the high temperature grids earlier, ranging from the mid 50s over our far western areas to around 80 far east.
Model guidance fairly consistent on developing a warm front extending from northern Iowa into extreme SW Wisconsin late Friday afternoon.
The weak ridge of high pressure that is currently over the Northern Rockies will move off to the east tonight. A weak cold front pushes through the region late Friday afternoon and overnight.
Isolated and shallow showers have developed and moved across the Straits of Florida and the Lower and Middle Keys. Temperatures along the island chain are in the mid to upper 80s with dew temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. While a mid level ridge is located across the Florida Peninsula therefore, we have mid dry air in place not allowing showers to increase vertically. Additionally, the previous mentioned mid level ridge will move southwest as it gets squashed by a cold front that is moving south towards the Southeast U. and a mid to upper level low that is moving west along the Lesser Antilles.
359 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 The passage of a cold front is ushering a colder and drier airmass that will take hold over the next two days.
1214 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Cold air continues to filter into the region in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Lows are expected to land in the 30s for the majority of the CWA, with some locations falling near or below freezing due to efficient radiational cooling caused by clear skies and light winds.
A marginally tight surface pressure gradient northeast of the high is providing us with a decent westerly breeze today. That breeze will let up through the evening as the high pressure center inches closer and the subsidence inversion takes hold and closes off all mixing. The cool, dry airmass in place will pull Friday morning lows down near freezing with many likely to see sub-freezing temperatures. During the day on Friday, winds will turn around to southeasterly as they chase a weak warm frontal boundary taking shape up to the northwest. The western CWA may reach the lower 60s where the warm advection will be a bit more efficient. High pressure will become anchored over the southeast U.
Upper levels have a split-flow with a trough digging across the U. Dense high cloudiness will continue to spread downstream from the trough across the Southern Plains maintaining cloudcover across most of our forecast area keeping daytime temperatures cooler than average. Light northeast winds and clear night skies may enhance nighttime radiational cooling west and north of I-44 with temperatures dropping into the 30s, likely down to freezing across western and northern Oklahoma. Cloudcover may keep areas east and south of I-44 warmer tonight in the 40s. Cloudcover may return late Friday afternoon, but expecting to see sun and warming early during the afternoon with mild temperatures, although still nearly 5 degrees cooler than average.
Temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 30s tonight and some frost is possible, mainly north of I-70. High pressure is centered over northern Missouri this afternoon and will drift northeast to the Great Lakes by tomorrow. Light and variable winds and mostly clear skies will be in place overnight as a result of the ridge axis passing overhead. A transient upper ridge will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes over the weekend, while at the surface, the center of high pressure will shift towards New England with ridging extending back along the Ohio River Valley into the central Great Plains. With moisture return cut off due to the placement of the low level ridge axis, dry weather will be favored over the weekend, while upper ridging will result in warming trends.
Our current cold front completed its journey through the mid-state earlier this morning and with light to moderate rain still coming down across the western 2/3 of the area, temperatures are holding firm in the 40s and 50s pretty much area-wide.
Winds will also increase from the east-southeast this afternoon in response to an approaching upper level trough. Temperatures will warm into the mid 50s this afternoon in the lower valleys. Next trough will bring isolated showers this afternoon to Southeast Oregon increasing in coverage late this evening. More convective showers and possible some thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon under the upper level trough.
Elsewhere in the state today, Nrly winds should prevail w/ mostly cloudy skies and cooler temps in place. This wl keep temps more spring-like at most locations on Fri as temps may struggle to break into the low 60s for some.
321 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 A slow moving cold front will clear southeast Pennsylvania by tonight, ushering in clearing along with cooler and drier conditions overnight.
There is a marginal (all except the lower Valley) to slight (ranchlands) risk of excessive rainfall through Friday morning. The HRRR leaves extreme southeast areas like Brownsville out of the higher precip amounts, however. Rain chances will slowly diminish Friday and Friday night, though a stubborn coastal trough will keep low cloud cover around and will prevent a total drying out in the short term.
Weak ridging will provide for a more noticeable warmup Friday with temperatures climbing into the 60's for the lower elevations. A spotty afternoon flurry couldn't be ruled out around the highest peaks, but the region will otherwise remain dry.
223 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Incoming high pressure over the region will continue to bring mostly to party cloudy skies, along with drier conditions. Tonight will be cool with lows in the lower 30s across the forecast area.
That doesn't change much until later tonight as upper troughing over the Great Lakes lifts northeast and allows high pressure over Missouri to slide east and push the front southeast.
Will have another cold and dry evening as upper ridge moves through Idaho and flow aloft turns southwesterly.
Have refined these numbers as well as, accounting for the cooler trends. The surface cold front will clear all of eastern Kentucky in the next hour. Temperatures spiked up into the lower 70s just ahead of the boundary in far southeastern Kentucky, while readings are in the mid 40s north of I-64, with north northwest winds. Have also removed the mention of the thunder, with the surface cold front slipping into Virginia. A cold front is entering the JKL forecast area from the northwest early this morning.
1114 AM MDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Upper low has shifted over Ontario, leaving the northern plains in northwest flow.
Highs will likely get into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon.
1254 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 A cold front is pushing southeastward and is helping to fuel scattered showers and some thunderstorms today. The backside of the front will tend to favor rain over thunderstorms, therefore thunderstorm activity should decrease by late afternoon as the cold front exits the area.
HRRR and SPC HREF are in agreement with convection increasing by early this evening in strong upper level divergence zone overlaying the low level convergence zone across south Texas. Models show a secondary short wave trough moving out of northeast Mexico on Friday with the upper level divergence increasing again in the left exit region of the upper jet.
1011 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 (Issued 1001 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023) With building high pressure and stable conditions, forecast details from the previous discussion remain on track this morning. CMiller (Issued 301 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023) Today and Tonight: Gusty westerly winds will persist today as the pressure gradient remains enhanced between the area of low pressure pulling northeast towards the Hudson Bay and high pressure across the northern and central Plains. Tonight, winds finally relax as high pressure moves overhead. Given how dry the low-levels get this afternoon and evening don't expect any precipitation tonight.
The remainder of the night through Friday evening will then be dry as an upper ridge crosses the area.
237 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 A surface cold front is helping to fuel showers and a few storms across the area this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity should decrease as the cold front pushes south of the area by the evening, though a few rumbles of thunder may still be heard.
The trough that helped to provide the gradient over the area has shifted more towards the CO/KS/NE border. Low pressure reasserts its presence over eastern Colorado, with high pressure east. Upper ridge also builds over the Plains during this time.
1221 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 (Today and tonight) Surface ridging across the Midwest today as the upslope easterly surface winds are maintained across the forecast area. Temperatures will remain cool today with highs in the lower 60s along with some lingering high clouds that will clear through the afternoon hours. Areas along the Caprock have a better potential of below freezing temperatures, versus off the Caprock.
Ceilings and visbys will increase during the morning as a cold front approaches from the northwest. BB/03 (Now through Friday) The upper ridge over the region will slowly weaken and shift eastward today as an upper trough moves east and an associated sfc cold front moves slowly southeast. Rain will gradually spread east across the area on Friday, with the highest PoPs (60-70 percent) northwest of I-65 lower PoPs (20-50 percent) roughly southeast of I-65. Highs today range from the lower 80s over northwest portions of the area to the upper 80s over south central Alabama. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 70s across northwest portions of the area to mid/upper 80s across southeast portions of the area.
The highest amounts of QPF are in Starr, Jim Hogg, and Zapata. Highest QPF amounts for Friday are close to quarter of an inch for the Lower Rio Grande Valley and the Kenedy county. As for temperatures, today expecting highs mostly in the 60s west of I69-E, while along the coast highs will be in the low to mid 70s. Low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 50s for most of Deep South Texas with the exception being the Lower Rio Grande Valley where temperatures could be in the lower 60s.
255 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 A slow moving cold front will clear southeast Pennsylvania by tonight, ushering in clearing along with cooler and drier conditions overnight.
121 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 (Today through Friday Night) The remnants of yesturday's cold front now loom over the Gulf of Mexico this morning as a coastal trough. Heading into the evening, the deepest PWs aim pool near the coast as another burst of SW energy kicks out from a mid/upper level trough over the Four Corners/Baja California. 6" during the day while aforementioned coastal trough gradually retreats deeper into the Gulf of Mexico.
While this push of cold air lead to subfreezing temperatures this morning, clear skies and solar heating quickly increased temperatures above freezing with high temperatures expected to reach into the 50s. Clear skies tonight once again lower overnight temperatures to near freezing. The high pressure continues southeast turning low level flow back southerly.
Drier northwest flow exists Friday as high pressure builds into the area, maintaining mostly clear skies. The post frontal cooler airmass settles into the region this morning with southeast Michigan residing on the southern end of this thermal trough extending down from Ontario. This cooler airmass is supporting better mixing through the morning hours bringing gusty winds of 25 to 30 mph. Temperatures tonight drop down to around the freezing mark supported by clearing skies. A broad high pressure will be the main influence over the region Friday and through the weekend bringing dry conditions through most of this period.
High pressure over the northeast CONUS will maintain dry conditions through the weekend.
Mid-level frontogenesis looks fairly weak and soundings show plenty of dry air in the low-levels, but a few flurries are possible. With fairly warm thermal profiles in the lower atmosphere, some of the precip could fall as rain or a mix, but a narrow band of accumulating snow is also possible, especially north of I-94.
227 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 A ridge of high pressure was situated across the area today. This will allow minimum temperatures to remain a bit more mild compared to the past couple of nights with only a few sites dipping into or around the freezing mark with no headlines planned at this time.
314 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Key Messages: -Light snowfall is expected generally south of the Highway 200 corridor overnight tonight into Friday morning. At the surface, high pressure looks to build into the region, resulting in clearing skies and calming winds this evening. Latest HREF guidance indicates an area of light snowfall to impact the Highway 200 corridor southward through the overnight hours into Friday morning.
Upper level heights will be mostly on the rise this weekend, ushering in warmer 850mb temperatures.
-----BMickelson Previous discussion: Even though the large low pressure storm system has moved far eastward into Ontario, the northern plains still remains under the influence of the arctic air today behind main circulation.
114 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Light to moderate rain continues to stream into Middle TN this hour behind our current cold front.
Meanwhile, the gradient between high pressure that is building into/across the Great Lakes from Canada, and low pressure over the Southeast CONUS, tightens overtop us with time. The long wave troffing that develops over the weekend promotes more clouds vs not. Largely, however, it's a seasonally warmer and drier forecast. In time the flow will undergo amplification with a ridge setting up across the Nation's mid- section. High pressure will remain the dominant surface weather feature.
Strong ridging remains over the Florida Peninsula through the rest of the week.
157 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 High pressure will build eastward across the forecast area through Thursday. This high will strengthen over the region on Friday and persist through the weekend. Satellite imagery shows clouds thinning across NW Ohio and expect temperatures to still make an attempt to reach the low 50s in the west and upper 40s to near 50 elsewhere. Dry weather is anticipated across the area through the near term as high pressure continues to build eastward across the Great Lakes region.
Weaker northerly gradient flow and positioning within the southern periphery of a thermal trough marked by 850 mb temps ranging from -2C to -9C sets up a healthy gradient between daytime highs Friday. Temperatures will struggle to break much above 40F in The Thumb while areas along/south of I-94 maximize in the lower 50s.
341 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 A cold front will cross the area tonight.
709 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 A surface cold front is helping to fuel showers and a few storms across the area this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity should decrease as the cold front pushes south of the area by the evening, though a few rumbles of thunder may still be heard.
1030 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 The passage of a cold front is ushering a colder and drier airmass that will take hold over the next two days.
This trend is expected to continue the next 36 hours as the north-south ridge axis transitions overhead. Some doubt exists for the extent of warmup we see Friday thanks to some high clouds spilling over the ridge ahead of a trough coming ashore out west. Enough subsidence under the ridge and many areas starting the morning well mixed, give me confidence that we will erase much of the cold air entrenched in the region from this week's storm.
This upper ridging will support dry weather for much of tonight into Friday, however, a weak mid/upper trough is anticipated to move across the region later in the day Friday. While this may provide some isolated showery development over the higher terrain, limited moisture will keep overall precip chances low through the period. This trough will assist with deepening low pressure lee of the mountains on Friday and help bring a return of gusty winds over portions of the plains. System will bring a few showers/sprinkles to mainly the higher terrain late Sat as it quickly traverses the region, though with forcing weak and moisture lacking, expect only very light precip amounts. Cold front associated with the wave will likely arrive too late to impact Sat afternoon maxes, with 60s/70s widespread at lower elevations.
410 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 (Issued 409 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023) Tonight through Friday night: High pressure should build in tonight, leading to easing surface winds going into tonight.
(Tonight) The cold front that instigated showers and a few thunderstorms in portions of the area early today has pushed off to the east. In its wake, a cooler airmass is filtering into the area. Temperatures have fallen into the lower 50s in north/western portions of the area, with warmer temps in the 60s in south- eastern counties where the frontal passage was more recent. N-NE flow will be maintained in the lower-levels, but flow will be generally SWRLY atop the shallow, cool, airmass above ~850 mb.
Otherwise clear sky holds as cirrus coverage exits eastward and as high pressure builds from the Midwest into Lower Mi by Friday morning. Weaker northerly gradient flow and positioning within the southern periphery of a thermal trough marked by 850 mb temps ranging from -2C to -9C sets up a healthy gradient between daytime highs Friday. Temperatures will struggle to break much above 40F in The Thumb while areas along/south of I-94 maximize in the lower 50s.