Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
637 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday) Only a few light showers remain across Barbour County as the cold front continues to move eastward into Georgia. Drier and cooler air has filtered into Central Alabama, with plentiful sunshine. A reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air will move into the region tonight, as most of the eastern CONUS remains under the influence of the longwave trough. A 1031mb ridge centered north of Montana will continue to filter a continental polar airmass southeastward through the short-term period which will lead to below-normal temperatures for this time of the year.
This afternoon, an upper trough was across the area. The upper trough axis will swing through the area. With a lower freezing level, graupel will mix in at times. Models are showing clearing of the low level clouds, with just some high clouds at times as additional upper energy moves across. Believe the highest concentration of clouds will remain north, closer to the departing upper trough. Lows will be in the lower to middle 30s. This will lead to lows near freezing and will likely need a headline but it is not clear yet if that will be a frost advisory or freeze warning.
Surface obs and radar show cold front now in our northern counties just north of Nashville and moving southward. Cooler and drier air behind the boundary will filter through the entire cwa overnight, with lows falling into the chilly 30s areawide.
949 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023 High pressure will slowly lift away to the northeast through tonight.
Otherwise - look for the weak cold front to gradually push south toward the Tampa Bay area, with dew points falling into the 40s north and to about 60 around Tampa Bay. Temperatures by Sunday morning will also be a little cooler than what we saw this morning, with upper 50s north and middle 60s central and south away from the coast. Winds will increase out of the northeast tonight behind a weak cold front.
410 PM MDT Sat Apr 22 2023 Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low over the Great Lakes area. Circulating around the closed low was drier, cooler air. Tonight another weak upper level short wave trough will move over the southwest corner of the forecast area. WAA will return with the south winds, causing temperatures to be warmer than today. Sunday night an upper level short wave ridge will move in from the west. The continued WAA will keep lows a few degrees warmer than tonight.
512 PM MDT Sat Apr 22 2023 The northwest flow loosens up a bit today into Sunday, as weak ridging builds across the northern Rockies, pushing the broad Great Lakes trough to the east. Ridge isn't particularly sharp, and doesn't dislodge the cooler air in place, so temperatures will struggle to reach back to the western Wyoming April normals of the 50s.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will cross the area overnight along a cold front, exiting Saturday morning. Cooler temperatures build in behind the front on Saturday. Discussion: The mild pattern that we have been experiencing over the past few days will come to an end tonight as a deep upper trough pushes a cold front through the area. However, the upper trough axis will still be crossing the area through the day, and cooling midlevel temperatures and steep low level lapse rates could generate of our areaate some isolated to scattered showers, mainly in the northern half of the area. High temps will be in the 60s in most spots, with 50s in the higher elevations.
510 PM MDT Sat Apr 22 2023 19Z upper level analysis has deep trof across the north central CONUS with ridging along the West Coast. Cold northerly boundary layer flow in place as Canadian high pressure settles over the area. Upper trof over the north central CONUS will gradually shift east overnight as western ridge builds over the Northern Rockies.
A cold front sagging southward into Central Florida is not expected to ever be a player in Keys Weather, much less for tonight. As a result, overnight lows will range broadly in the lower 70s.
715 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023 A weak cold front will move through the area tonight brining cooler temperatures.
635 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023 Scattered convective showers have popped up across the area as the main upper level trough axis moves overhead. (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Cloud coverage has begun to increase slightly this afternoon ahead of a cold front moving through the area. Much cooler temps will follow the front, knocking temps into the 30s to 40s overnight. If you are curious about the daytime tomorrow, it looks pretty similar to today but cooler.
759 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023 A cold front will move through the area through this evening. High pressure will build into the region Sunday.
A weak cold front positioned just north of the region will help reinforce lingering low-level moisture resulting in very light showers across our extreme northwestern zones. Temperatures this evening will be on the cooler side for areas north of the I-20 corridor where lows will drop to the upper 40s while everywhere else can expect temperatures in the lower 50s. A weak polar stream cold front, currently pushing south toward northern portions of the area, will not do much other than to reinforce the baroclinic zone currently in place across the Gulf Coast region and drop temperatures just a bit more.
732 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023 An upper level trough will persist across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into Sunday.
Otherwise - look for the weak cold front to gradually push south toward the Tampa Bay area, with dew points falling into the 40s north and to about 60 around Tampa Bay. Temperatures by Sunday morning will also be a little cooler than what we saw this morning, with upper 50s north and middle 60s central and south away from the coast. Winds will become increase out of the northeast tonight behind a weak cold front.
Mostly clear tonight as a weak upper ridge passes through from west to east. A short wave trough behind the ridge will bring rain showers (60-80% chance) to Baker County Sunday, then into Valley County Sunday evening.
552 PM MDT Sat Apr 22 2023 Plenty of clouds and scattered mountain showers lingered across the region as instability and lift from a low amplitude mid-level short wave trough approaches from the northwest. A transitory ridge moves over the region on Sunday bringing mostly to partly sunny skies which, when combined with warm air advection in the lower levels of the atmosphere will help temperatures recover to near normal levels. A low-amplitude trough forces the ridge eastward Sunday night bringing increased clouds and a chance for showers after midnight. Temperatures tonight should be a bit cooler than last night as clouds decrease during the night.
The line of showers along the reinforcing cold front has now moved east of the forecast area. Lingering showers overnight will be limited to the ridges as westerly flow provides orographic lift of the still- saturated, cold airmass. Cooling temperatures may allow snow to mix with rain at the highest elevations, but little accumulation is expected.
624 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) A cold front is currently analyzed north of I-20, slowly advancing to the south-southwest over the past few hrs. Cold front will make headway down past the Stockton Plateau later this evening with instability axis located along the river down through Terrell county.
912 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023 A cold front will move through the area through this evening. High pressure will build into the region Sunday.
631 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023 High pressure will slowly lift away to the northeast through tonight.
Weather dominated by the cold front passage for the next day.
334 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Key Messages: - A cold front will move southeast on Thursday and provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms.
1103 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Currently, the recent frontal boundary is located just to our south with increasing northerly flow ahead of drier, cooler air. (Today and tonight) Key Message: Drier and cooler air moving in during the period. Drier and cooler air will be moving in behind the front.
223 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 High pressure is place throughout the region today with temperatures in the 70s.
223 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 A cold front will continue to push south and east of the area today.
1249 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 (Today through Thursday) An upper level trough is currently swinging across the Great Lakes will continue to rotate through the Ohio River Valley today. With the base of the trough generally north of Tennessee, the frontal boundary associated with this trough will struggle to make it much further than its current position today.
Forecast Discussion: It's another nice day outside with high pressure remaining over the area today. Temperatures in the low 80s with dew points from near 40 degrees into the mid 40s this afternoon should feel quite comfortable. High pressure moves east tomorrow as a mid-level trough currently over the northwestern CONUS progresses eastward into the Upper Midwest. An attendant surface cold front will approach the area as moisture advects northward from TX into central and western KS.
(This evening through Thursday) Westerly flow aloft will persist over the region with the upper level trough over the Great Lakes region transiting to the northeast and an area of high pressure over central Mexico. Southeast surface flow in combination with the persistent robust cloud cover have kept the area cooler than anticipated, therefore have lowered todays high temperatures by a few degrees with CONSshort. Therefore, we have sided with the cooler guidance for highs tomorrow with temperatures in the 70s areawide.
247 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Key Message - A cold frontal passage late tonight into Thursday will bring another chance for precipitation, but light amounts Have had pretty steady south winds today. The cold front looks to reach the Devils Lake region late tonight, bringing the next chance of precipitation. With the clouds and rain, highs Thursday will remain on the cooler side. Any rainfall associated with the cold front should slide east of the FA Thursday night.
259 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Tonight: High pressure settles over the area providing clear skies and light to calm winds. A few favored valley or low spots may dip to the lower 40s in our north.
229 PM MDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Upper trough axis was moving through Idaho at midday with satellite imagery showing moisture and convective activity within the SW flow ahead of the system. Scattered showers and thunderstorms (more like thundershowers) will continue to develop over the high country and push east through the evening. Much of the precipitation will push to the SE corner of Montana by 6 am Thursday as the trough axis shift southeast.
334 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Latest water vapor imagery shows amplified upper level trough encompassing the Great Lakes region and the Ohio River Valley.
Other than precipitation, there are strong indications that the cold frontal boundary will drive visibility reducing smoke to the surface. Highs for this afternoon are expected to reach the mid 70s to low 80s, while highs Thursday should remain mostly in the low 70s. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 50s, while Thursday night will be a bit cooler with most locations dropping into the mid to upper 40s.
227 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Cool high pressure settles in for the remainder of the work week.
1129 AM MDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Current surface map places high pressure across the Upper Midwest with trough across Montana/eastern Wyoming.
132 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 (Today and tonight) A low-amplitude upper trough over the southern U. By late tonight, the main part of this flat trough will traverse across northern TX/southern OK.
As the day progresses, an upper trough is forecasted to swing slowly through the Plains. This will bring a cold front through the area around the evening hours.
1043 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather with temperatures warming back up to above normal values for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
243 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 High pressure settles over the area providing clear skies and light to calm winds. A few favored valley or low spots may dip to the lower 40s in our north.
325 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 The upper trough axis is clearing the area, and Canadian high pressure is beginning to build across the Great Lakes region. High pressure continues to expand into the area tomorrow, with the upper pattern transitioning to a more zonal/unremarkable flow. Although the high and low end of the warm/cold spectrum is usually a little more pronounced in this setup.
A little more sun in the afternoon behind the wave may allow a little better heating for the afternoon than what we are looking at today, with a few areas along I-10 pushing into the lower 90s.
Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface centered over the Great Lakes region, will continue to settle south into the area. Mostly cloudy skies will exist tonight, with lows ranging from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. Clouds will continue to linger across the region Thursday, as highs range from the lower 80s to around 90. Daytime temperatures in the low 80s to low 90s along with overnight temperatures in the mid 60s are expected.
626 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 (Tonight) Aside from lingering mid/high level clouds in place across the region in the wake of a recently-departed cold front, relatively benign weather is expected overnight. Morning lows will bottom out in the lower 60s for most spots, with a few locations in Southern Middle Tennessee dipping into the upper 50s.
Gusty winds this evening for portions of northwest Nevada due to an approaching cold front from the northwest. Expect mostly dry and sunny conditions tomorrow through the weekend as a ridge builds into the region. Warmer temps for the weekend that will give way to cooler temps by next mid-week. A weak cold front has begun to pass from NW to SE across the CWA which will bring drier and more stable conditions to the region overnight.
931 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 High pressure builds over the area through the weekend. As of mid evening, the cold front from earlier has moved offshore with dry air advection occuring on N/NW winds. High pressure builds in on Thursday, with cooler Canadian air dominating under mostly sunny skies and a relatively light northwesterly wind.
203 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather with temperatures warming back up to above normal values for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
354 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather with temperatures warming back up to above normal values for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
Tomorrow should be a little warmer in most areas, but highs should still be in the 80 to 85 degree neighborhood as more clouds and areas of showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected.
All thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts, small hail, and localized flash flooding should any develop over the lower deserts. There is still good PBL moisture, with dew point temperatures remaining in the low to mid 60s in Maricopa County and points east. Ensemble guidance show good agreement in ridging building into the western CONUS for the end of the week with 500 mb heights across the forecast areas climbing upwards of 588-590 dm.
933 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 - Pleasant cool night ahead Surface analysis this evening shows a large area of high pressure over the western Great Lakes. Water Vapor showed ridging in place over the northern plains and upper midwest, extending northeast into western Ontario.
721 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Upper ridging has shifted southeast of Florida allowing for a quasi- zonal upper level pattern to set up over the Florida peninsula. Farther to the north, a closed upper low spins north of the Great Lakes with associated troughing extending south through Tennessee. On the surface, high pressure remains centered in the central Gulf of Mexico through the week. A little farther north, a series of low pressure centers is located along an extensive frontal boundary that extends southward along the eastern seaboard, then turns westward through Georgia and extends farther westward to Texas. This front will linger over northern Florida through the week with minor fluctuations north and south as areas of low pressure move eastward along this front.
(Rest of tonight) Overall, an uneventful night will unfold as we remain in the wake of a cold front stretched to our south, and northerly flow keeps cooler air in place over the area.
An upper wave will pass along this trough late this afternoon and evening. Lows Tonight will range from the lower 70s inland, to the mid to upper 70s coast.
732 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 A mid level trough will move east through the Great Lakes offering a few showers across the north this evening. Cooler temperatures and dry weather can be expected through the end of the week. High temperatures Thursday will be slightly warmer than today with readings topping out generally in the lower and middle 70s. Mostly clear sky conditions Thursday night with lows ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s.
Isold showers associated with vigorous but moisture-challenged upper level trough axis swinging in from the eastern GLAKS and Ohio Valley continue to meander across portions of central PA to the north of I-80 late this evening. Seasonably cooler overnight (+/- 3F of mid Sept. Thursday's high temps will trend about 2 to 5 deg F cooler vs.
629 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Westerly flow aloft will persist over the region with the upper level trough over the Great Lakes region transiting to the northeast and an area of high pressure over central Mexico. Southeast surface flow in combination with the persistent robust cloud cover have kept the area cooler than anticipated, therefore have lowered todays high temperatures by a few degrees with CONSshort. Therefore, we have sided with the cooler guidance for highs tomorrow with temperatures in the 70s areawide.
An upper trough with a correlating front at the sfc will move through the region late tonight through Thursday afternoon before stalling a bit across the far eastern cwa Thursday night.
The upper trough axis is clearing the area, and Canadian high pressure is beginning to build across the Great Lakes region. High pressure continues to expand into the area tomorrow, with the upper pattern transitioning to a more zonal/unremarkable flow. Although the high and low end of the warm/cold spectrum is usually a little more pronounced in this setup.
813 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Pretty quiet evening across Middle TN as high pressure begins to dominate the region.
806 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 High pressure builds over the area through the weekend. Cold front has moved offshore and conditions have become relatively quiet. High pressure builds in on Thursday, with cooler Canadian air dominating under mostly sunny skies and a relatively light northwesterly wind.
755 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 The loss of daytime heating with sustained dry air advection off of high pressure centered in the western U. Flow trajectories will becoming sharply anticyclonic through the mid morning hours on Thursday with high pressure centering overhead. Latest water vapor imagery shows amplified upper level trough encompassing the Great Lakes region and the Ohio River Valley.
Key Message - A cold frontal passage late tonight into Thursday will bring another chance for precipitation, but light amounts Have had pretty steady south winds today. The cold front looks to reach the Devils Lake region late tonight, bringing the next chance of precipitation. With the clouds and rain, highs Thursday will remain on the cooler side. Any rainfall associated with the cold front should slide east of the FA Thursday night.
552 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance High pressure is place throughout the region today with temperatures in the 70s.
Still some light showers lifting out of McKean County associated with vigorous but moisture challenged upper level trough axis swinging in from the eastern GLAKS and Ohio Valley. Dry air advection in the low levels will remain a limiting factor with dewpoints falling into the 45-55F range by later tonight. Seasonably cooler overnight (+/- 3F of mid Sept. Thursday's high temps will trend about 2 to 5 deg F cooler vs.
728 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Cool high pressure settles in for the remainder of the work week.
Tonight: High pressure settles over the area providing clear skies and light to calm winds. A few favored valley or low spots may dip to the lower 40s in our north.
The deepening thermal trough at the coast will bring increased offshore flow that will spread east across the Cascades and into the east side this evening.
-thor MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a series of troughs and ridges oriented along the International Border the first ridge is entering eastern Montana early this morning while it's first coupled trough sits over western Montana. Another ridge trough couplet sits just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest eager to join the march behind. Today through Tonight: A ridge will move through the area today bringing a warm front in the early morning along with west winds in by the afternoon hours. By the evening hours the ridge will exit with a cold front moving through on its heels.
621 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 High pressure builds over the area through the weekend. Cold front has moved offshore and conditions have become relatively quiet. High pressure builds in on Thursday, with cooler Canadian air dominating under mostly sunny skies and a relatively light northwesterly wind.
Dry air and anticyclonic flow dominates through the lower and mid levels. Anticyclonic flow and drier air will continue to dominate through the lower and mid levels. A modest pressure gradient between ridging to our northwest and Hurricane Lee well to our east northeast will maintain light to gentle mostly northerly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Synoptic & water vapor analysis this evening indicate westerly zonal flow, while longwave trough/cold core continues to propagate east-northeast across southern Canada & into the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface centered over the Great Lakes region, will continue to settle south into the area. Mostly cloudy skies will exist tonight, with lows ranging from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. Clouds will continue to linger across the region Thursday, as highs range from the lower 80s to around 90. Daytime temperatures in the low 80s to low 90s along with overnight temperatures in the mid 60s are expected.
Had earlier added slight chance POPs, but those are now gone and we'll await the main precip chances later tonight with the arrival of the cold front. An upper trough with a correlating front at the sfc will move through the region late tonight through Thursday afternoon before stalling a bit across the far eastern cwa Thursday night.
The trough currently over the Great Lakes region will continue to track east, and then lift off to the northeast through tonight and into Thursday. At the surface, as the trough lifts further off to the northeast, the practically stationary, weak surface cold front that has been lingering along the I-65 corridor gets a small push southeast before it looks to stall along the coast or just offshore on early Thursday. Given we continue to lean towards being a tad warmer than what guidance suggests, have opted to bump up highs a degree or so from NBM.
This evening through Wednesday Longwave trough continues to push east across MT and ID closer to the western CWA border. A bit cooler temperatures Thursday, but no other significant hazards are expected at this time.