Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
So far this morning, isolated light to moderate rain showers along a cold front have been gradually dissipating across the Bluegrass, with some lingering stratus pushing through in the vicinity of the front. Today should be an excellent day weather-wise across central Kentucky and southern Indiana as high pressure at the surface and subsidence aloft will lead to mostly sunny skies across the region. Tonight, a few high level clouds will stream across the region from NW to SE; however, this shouldn't affect temperatures cooling off quickly after sunset thanks to high pressure remaining fairly close by and keeping winds light. Will go with mid-to-upper 50s for low temps Saturday morning for most (SDF warm bubble excepted), with some valleys across east central KY potentially falling into the low 50s.
(Today through Saturday) Key Messages: - Dangerously Hot with elevated Fire Danger continuing today, and somewhat on Saturday We will continue our Heat over S Texas as the upper level ridge repositions itself a little more east of where it has been for most of this season. As the ridge moves, the expectation is for the temperatures to stay about the same, but we start to notice the RH beginning to rise in areas, to the west like near LRD.
Once the fog erodes the day is shaping up to be fairly benign as a ridge of high pressure slides off to the east with mostly sunny skies expected. Highs today are expected to be a bit warmer; generally in the middle to upper 70s. Southerly winds on the backside of the high will allow for a continued warmup tonight and Saturday, with quiet weather expected to continue through Saturday.
As of 2AM, we have clear skies across the region with temperatures in the high 50s to low 60s and dewpoints around 50. Today a ridge builds into the region bringing in much warmer air and temperatures. This high pressure will keep us dry as well. The forecast period opens with a large hot upper level ridge in play over the CWA. A precipitation-free cold front has pushed south and east of the CWA while an EML holds firm at 7 PM CDT Saturday.
Big picture includes a high pressure over the Plains and a stalled low pressure off the coast of southern California. Convective development will begin on the higher terrain with cold pools steering new develop downstream over the valleys. The ridge begins to expand westward tomorrow so the flow goes back to southerly.
529 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 The broad ridge of high pressure will shift slightly eastward today which will allow a bit more steering flow from the southwest. The thermal ridge will also be shifting further east, centered over far eastern Colorado with expected warmer high temperatures closing in on the century mark. Temperatures over the mountains and foothills should be a bit cooler today given more cloud cover while readings over the urban corridor will be about the same as yesterday or perhaps a degree or so cooler. Continued upper ridging and above normal temperatures will be the main weather story well into the upcoming week.
The persistent dome of high pressure will slowly shift slightly to the ENE today and tonight with little change in conditions from those we saw yesterday.
30 Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday/ A strong mid level ridge parked over the Southern Plains will maintain the excessively hot weather currently in place through the weekend. But as an intense upper ridge shifts north, daytime temperatures will lose a couple of degrees each day through midweek. An easterly wave will slide along the underbelly of the ridge, primarily impacting South and West Texas during the middle of the week. The wildfire concerns will return late in the week as the upper ridge and its accompanying heat returns. 25 Summer precipitation totals are among the lowest on record. /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ A strong 500mb ridge will continue to provide overall quiet aviation weather at all TAF locations, with VFR expected along with south winds around 10kt through the end of the forecast period.
627 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (Today through Saturday) The short term period will continue to feature hot and mostly rain- free conditions as Deep South Texas remains under the influence of mid level ridging. One subtle difference compared to previous days is the gradual increase in precipitable water values across the region as the ridge begins to shift.
310 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 The broad ridge of high pressure will shift slightly eastward today which will allow a bit more steering flow from the southwest. The thermal ridge will also be shifting further east, centered over far eastern Colorado with expected warmer high temperatures closing in on the century mark. Temperatures over the mountains and foothills should be a bit cooler today given more cloud cover while readings over the urban corridor will be about the same as yesterday or perhaps a degree or so cooler. Continued upper ridging and above normal temperatures will be the main weather story well into the upcoming week.
One major caveat/forecast challenge for highs today will be the anticipation of scattered shower/thunderstorm development by 20z, as convective temperatures are reached & numerous weak disturbances traverse the flow along the edge of the ridge. Opted not to make any extensions to inherited Heat Advisory given fairly low confidence in the high temperature forecast given the last few iterations of the HRRR trending cooler w/ each subsequent run.
As a result, current temperatures are running considerably cooler (10-15 degrees) across the Central Valley and foothills compared to 24 hours ago with readings in the 60s to around 70 in the Delta Breeze influenced areas, and in the mid 70s to lower 80s across the northern Sacramento Valley. It won't be as hot going forward as the low remains near the central California coast.
403 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (Issued 405 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023) Today through Saturday Night: A high pressure system continues to build into the region early this morning, with the center of it sliding just south of us today and tonight. As the high pressure slides further east Saturday morning, southerly air flow at the surface will remove the smoke / haze and allow a ridge currently parked over the plains to shift slightly eastward and build into the midwest region, resulting in warmer weekend temperatures. With a low pressure sliding across southern Canada, PGF should be strong enough for gusts around 25 mph in SW and central WI on Saturday.
(Today through Saturday) Short term forecast continues to be seasonally benign as dominate southern CONUS high pressure ridge shifts enough to better position Georgia under its dry influence.
556 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Currently have upper ridging centered over the TX/OK Panhandles with a sharp upper trough stretching from the Eastern Great Lakes region into the Southern Appalachians. At the surface, high pressure is situated of the Mid Mississippi Valley with a cold front stretching across Northern TX. Upper ridge will slowly track east and strengthen starting Sat and will continue to expand through Sun. Upper pattern is expected to remain very stable through these periods, with strong upper ridge generally centered over MO/eastern KS. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low 90s.
635 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (Today through Saturday night) More heat expected for more of the area today, and with it more exasperated sighs of Panhandle residents ready for cooler weather. Strengthening high pressure aloft and warming 850mb temps should allow several areas to be even hotter than yesterday. High pressure meanders slightly eastward on Saturday, but will still be the dominant influence on our weather.
448 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Current surface map shows high pressure across the Upper Midwest with trough across the Northern Plains. Speedy low level jet is boosting thermal profiles; with current temperatures in the lower 80s for downslope areas around the Black Hills. For Saturday, cold front slips into far northwest South Dakota/northeast Wyoming early and shifts south of the forecast area Saturday afternoon.
Cooler air filtering in will support slightly cooler lows compared to yesterday, generally in the low-mid 50s. Optimal radiational cooling will support another night of seasonably cool lows with temperatures in the low-mid 50s tonight.
514 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (Today) Tranquil conditions across the Tennessee Valley early this morning with high pressure in control over the Deep South.
924 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Cooler and drier air will overspread the region today. High pressure will build into the region today under northwest flow aloft. Cold air advection, on the backside of the 850mb trough, may provide just enough instability to promote an afternoon shower over the northwest counties, but the rest of the area should remain dry. High pressure and a strengthening ridge over the central U.
High pressure in the central North Atlantic extends across Florida, with the Keys remaining on the southwestern periphery. From synopsis, strengthening high pressure over the eastern United States and an approaching tropical wave will bring freshening easterly breezes and another round of unsettled weather this weekend.
545 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Breezy conditions today will direct a noticeably cooler and less humid airmass into the Commonwealth.
In north-central Idaho, for wind gusts greater than 25 mph, the probabilities are mixed with some locations like the Camas Prairie equating to 80 percent, while the lower valleys range from 20 to 50 percent. For gusts greater than 35 mph, the probabilities range between 90 and 100 percent on western Montana ridgetops and along the Divide.
557 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Upper ridging strengthens overhead today into the weekend and should squash precipitation chances, even for the mountains.
635 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level high will be centered over Oklahoma through tonight and will result in another very hot day across the area.
504 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front overnight into early Friday morning. Breezy conditions behind the front Friday afternoon will direct a noticeably cooler and drier airmass into the Commonwealth and lead to a refreshingly comfortable start to the weekend.
Increased rain activity and cloud cover again today will keep temperatures near normal with highs across the area topping out in the lower 90s.
703 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Aviation Skies are mostly clear across the region and we're expecting a pretty spectacular late summer day across the cwa: highs in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the 50s resulting in low humidity. The upper trough that moved across the cwa yesterday is off to the east and we'll see an upper ridge nose into the Great Lakes. Heat and humidity will begin to build Saturday as the upper ridge moves overhead and dewpoints climb back into the mid 60s.
1124 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 The ridge that has been over the western US continues sliding south and east today into this weekend.
A cold front will enter the NW zones around midnight tonight and quickly exit the CWA by Saturday morning.
352 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 There is a trough from the eastern Great Lakes to the Carolinas and another wave over the western coastal seaboard. In the middle of the CONUS through the Plains, there is a ridge at 500mb and 700mb with a wave tracking east into the Plains at 850mb.
H5 ridging continues to work eastward and flatten this afternoon and into Saturday. Zonal flow aloft prevails through late Saturday as we will be situated between a 537dm trough in northern Canada, and a 594dm ridge in the central CONUS. Resultant westerly to northwesterly flow will combine with the influence of the H5 ridge to bring our temperatures well into the upper 80s to middle 90s across much of the area for Saturday.
(Through Saturday) As upper-level ridging begins moving in from the west, we should expect mostly clear skies as synoptic-scale subsidence dominates. Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
236 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday) High pressure over the Ohio Valley to Mid Atlantic will keep our weather dry and rather pleasant over the next 24 to 36 hours. A weak surface boundary will sag south across the area, bringing just a reinforcing shot of slightly cooler/drier air to much of north and central GA tonight.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) The upper ridge is centered over OK today and covers the middle of the country as a low spins along the CA coast.
(Tonight) An upper level pattern with ridging situated over the southern Great Plains and troughing over southern Ontario/Quebec was in place over the greater North American domain. Closer to the surface under a NW flow, a weak cold front has moved southward across the area earlier today, bringing a shot of slightly drier air to the area. Air temperatures however were not really cooler, as 3 PM readings into the upper 80s and around 90 with a light NW wind. Lows tonight should cool into the lower 60s (mid 60s near the larger bodies of water) with light winds. The slightly drier and cooler air should not be conducive to a development of fog before daybreak Saturday.
(Tonight) Warmer temperatures are anticipated across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas tonight as the weak boundary across the area washes out and a south-southeasterly breeze prevails through the night. (Saturday through Friday) Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas are in for a stretch of dangerous heat during this time-frame as high pressure reigns supreme at the surface and aloft.
24hr change plots show a warmer and more moist change across much of the forecast area and marking the beginning of an extended stretch of hot and humid conditions.
142 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Aviation Skies are mostly clear across the region and we're expecting a pretty spectacular late summer day across the cwa: highs in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the 50s resulting in low humidity. The upper trough that moved across the cwa yesterday is off to the east and we'll see an upper ridge nose into the Great Lakes. Heat and humidity will begin to build Saturday as the upper ridge moves overhead and dewpoints climb back into the mid 60s.
149 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 High pressure builds over the weekend and dominates much of the new week. Dry conditions ensue as a ridge of high pressure builds from the west. A pleasant day is in store on Saturday as the ridge continues to slide east.
153 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Aviation Skies are mostly clear across the region and we're expecting a pretty spectacular late summer day across the cwa: highs in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the 50s resulting in low humidity. The upper trough that moved across the cwa yesterday is off to the east and we'll see an upper ridge nose into the Great Lakes. Heat and humidity will begin to build Saturday as the upper ridge moves overhead and dewpoints climb back into the mid 60s.
A potent upper trough moving just north of Lake Ontario today will help to direct a noticeably cooler and less humid airmass into the Commonwealth with chilly temperatures in the upper 40s to upper 50s in store for tonight.
(This evening through Saturday night) A 594dm 500mb ridge is currently centered over the region which, combined with 850mb temperatures around 31C-35C, will allow for temperatures to climb into the 100s for almost the entire CWA. Saturday doesn't look much different as the upper-level ridge will be slightly further east and slightly stronger. Although widespread triple digit temperatures are expected again, most locations will be a couple degrees cooler than today. The primary exception to this will be in the northeastern combined Panhandles where temperatures will be up to 3 degrees warmer.
1132 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Cooler and drier air will overspread the region today. High pressure will build into the region today under northwest flow aloft. Cold air advection, on the backside of the 850mb trough, may provide just enough instability to promote an afternoon shower over the northwest counties, but the rest of the area should remain dry. High pressure and a strengthening ridge over the central U.
346 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Strong deep-layer subsidence continues across the area through tonight as we experience sharp height rises with the departure of yesterday's trough. Gusty northwest winds will subside heading into this evening, leaving cool and mostly clear conditions tonight with the dry air allowing temps to dip into the lower 50s outside of the urban heat islands which will stay a few degrees warmer. Some of the typically cooler locales in the Thumb/Saginaw Valley may reach the upper 40s. Our area will avoid the excessive heat this weekend, but the northeast extension of the central Plains ridge will still bring a strong warm advection trend to the area.
237 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 High pressure builds over the weekend.
(This afternoon through Saturday) Another weak, unnoticeable front is currently moving southward through Central Alabama while high pressure builds eastward over the Ohio Valley. The front will reinforce the dry air over the region, and keep temperatures a bit cooler and pleasant tonight across the north, but otherwise, temperatures will continue to trend warmer during the daytime as the 598dam ridge centers over the Central and Southern Plains and causes heights to rise across the Southeast.
1057 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Current surface map shows high pressure across the Upper Midwest with trough across the Northern Plains. Speedy low level jet is boosting thermal profiles; with current temperatures in the lower 80s for downslope areas around the Black Hills. For Saturday, cold front slips into far northwest South Dakota/northeast Wyoming early and shifts south of the forecast area Saturday afternoon.
336 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Showery and cool conditions will continue through Saturday night as a low pressure system gradually moves away from our area.
This will bring slightly "cooler" highs in the upper 80s to 90s, areas towards south central SD could reach into the low 100s again before the front moves through.
Enjoy this period while you can as hot and moist conditions look to return with a vengeance moving into the short term as ridging aloft over the Central Plains strengthens and becomes rather expansive while gradually drifting east- northeast.
A potent upper trough moving just north of Lake Ontario today will help to direct a noticeably cooler and less humid airmass into the Commonwealth.
An upper level trough is centered over the Northeast today and extends down the east coast. A weak downslope component to mid-level winds suggests temps a degree or two warmer than yesterday. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s. Therefore the low temperature is below the blended temperature consensus with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. As a result, northerly flow aloft and at the surface should keep temperatures right around average for this time of year, with highs in the lower to mid 90s. As the aforementioned high pressure continues sliding east, winds are expected to become easterly at the surface late in the day or overnight.
1209 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Currently have upper ridging centered over the TX/OK Panhandles with a sharp upper trough stretching from the Eastern Great Lakes region into the Southern Appalachians. At the surface, high pressure is situated of the Mid Mississippi Valley with a cold front stretching across Northern TX. Upper ridge will slowly track east and strengthen starting Sat and will continue to expand through Sun. Upper pattern is expected to remain very stable through these periods, with strong upper ridge generally centered over MO/eastern KS. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low 90s.
Enjoy this period while you can as hot and moist conditions look to return with a vengeance moving into the short term as ridging aloft over the Central Plains strengthens and becomes rather expansive while gradually drifting east-northeast. JEH/88 (Saturday night through Friday) An intense (~600 dm) mid level ridge of high pressure will build across the central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley region late this weekend and into much of the upcoming week.
(This evening through Saturday) A 596 dam upper level high centered over Oklahoma will shift slowly to the north tonight and Saturday. Continued subsidence under the high will keep precip at bay while a slight decrease in 1000-500 mb thickness and surface winds a little more backed than today there should be a slight decrease in highs relative today. Both NBM and MOS support that, although the cooler NBM may be a bit optimistic. Beforehand, another quiet and mild night is in store with the dry air underneath the upper ridge.
17Z observations show a 596 dm high centered over the central and southern plains and at the surface a lee side trough in eastern Colorado has led to a tightening pressure gradient and winds will stay breezy out of the southwest during the afternoon. Tonight should remain mild as winds will be breezy out of the southwest and lows will fall into the lower to mid 70s.
1110 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Marine Skies are mostly clear across the region and we're expecting a pretty spectacular late summer day across the cwa: highs in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the 50s resulting in low humidity. The upper trough that moved across the cwa yesterday is off to the east and we'll see an upper ridge nose into the Great Lakes. Heat and humidity will begin to build Saturday as the upper ridge moves overhead and dewpoints climb back into the mid 60s.
209 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 A cold frontal moves through the region today.
A weak boundary crossing into north GA at this time will continue to drift south through the afternoon/evening reinforcing the relatively cooler/drier air in for one more night and day.
351 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Showers and thunderstorms overspread southern New England after sunrise Friday, with a warm front in the morning followed by cold front approaching from the west during the afternoon.
An impressive field of moisture will enter the forecast area associated with Tropical Cyclone Hilary starting on Saturday, leading to the onset of rain.
(This afternoon through Saturday Night) Surface observations this afternoon show drier air continues to filter southward into the midstate in the wake of a weak cold front that has pushed south to near the Alabama border. Saturday looks very similar to today albeit just a few degrees warmer as the large upper level ridge dominating our weather remains centered over KS/OK.
1234 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Cold front exits east of the Appalachians around noon. Thereafter, high pressure dominates into the new week. A few showers are still possible during the morning hours, mainly along the highest elevations. A weak passing cold front is still evident in surface analysis crossing WV this morning. Temperatures tonight will be about 6 degrees cooler than normal, generally in the mid 50s lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s highest elevations.
Discussion: Drier air is moving into our area behind the cold front this afternoon. The large upper ridge to our west will gradually build east over the region, with dry weather during the short term period.
148 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 A cold frontal moves through the region today.
1256 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 High pressure builds over the weekend and dominates much of the new week. A few showers are still possible during the morning hours, mainly along the highest elevations. A weak passing cold front is still evident in surface analysis crossing WV this morning. Temperatures tonight will be about 6 degrees cooler than normal, generally in the mid 50s lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s highest elevations.
1234 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper level high will be centered over Oklahoma through tonight and will result in another very hot day across the area.
Lgt sly winds will then develop tnt as high pressure move east with the winds becoming breezy on Sat as low pressure moves across srn Canada. The trailing cold front from the low moving from Ontario into Hudson Bay will then approach srn WI around 12Z Sun.