Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tonight: A cooler and dry day across the Ozarks region, with highs reaching in the 80s. The tornado threat would be focused across southern Missouri where the low-level environment will be most favorable.
Meanwhile, high pressure continues to ridge over the Peninsula keeping west to southwest flow in place through the period. In terms of rainfall and the very stagnant weather pattern, the highest chances over the interior each afternoon, which continues to be not great for the areas along the coast.
At the surface, warm front extends from the TX Panhandle into the Arklatex region with Lee troughing strengthening from Eastern CO into far Eastern NM.
135 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A weak ridge of high pressure will gradually build into the Ohio Valley through tonight. The high will move east on Wednesday ahead of the next round of showers and thunderstorms expected to begin Wednesday night.
A notable temperatures gradient will set up over the area with temperatures around 70 on the back side of the front, warmer ahead. Precip chances wane as we enter the evening as upper ridge passes over.
423 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A cold front will move through the area overnight, with weak high pressure building over the region from the north through Wednesday.
With our upper ridge displaced to the south, we may have a repeat of convective activity embedded in the westerlies impinging on our CWA tonight into Wednesday morning. A weak front will slide southward on Wednesday with the ridge axis displaced to the west. Otherwise, the ridge builds back in for the latter part of the week into the weekend with 850-700 mb temps approaching climatological maxes.
225 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A cold front will stall to our south tonight and early Wednesday. The front will be followed by weak high pressure today through Wednesday.
1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023 (Today and tonight) A subtropical ridge remains in place across the southern Plains this morning. Overnight lows look to remain in the low 80s given the hot airmass in place across the region.
A weak cold front will stall across central Utah tonight, with warm dry and breezy conditions ahead of the front, and cooler and more stable conditions behind it.
Middle/high clouds extending from nw Montana through central Idaho and se Oregon were moving eastward through our CWA this evening indicating a weak warm front aloft. An upper ridge over western WA and OR was also moving eastward and will pass through our CWA Wednesday morning. Behind the ridge the next Pacific trough and surface cold-front will come in late Wednesday.
High temperatures have reached up into the mid 90s today with unusually high dew points in the lower 80s. Mean layer ridging is split between the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic waters with a surface to low level ridge extending west across the Bahamas. High pressure centered over the central North Atlantic extending westward across the Florida Peninsula will support gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters for the next several days.
Here at home, we were dealt a round of record temperatures today and heat index readings that were some of the highest in recent memory. Heights fall subtly over Florida, but the lower troposphere seems unresponsive, with H85 & H925 T's nearly identical on the guidance for tomorrow vs.
Shear is on the high side in the mid to upper-levels with storm motions of 25-35 mph heading towards the east-northeast.
In fact, this same trough was responsible for some mountain snowfall across northwest Wyoming last night and early this morning. just as the trough axis pushes through the area. Thankfully, once this upper level trough swings through the area later tonight/early Wednesday morning, weather conditions will quickly improve for Wednesday. All models show stable conditions in the low to midlevels with high LI's above +2c and a solid temperatures inversion just above 700mb.
836 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A cold front will move through the area overnight, with weak high pressure building over the region from the north through Wednesday.
A few isolated showers attempted to develop towards sunset just north of the Lower Keys and in the immediate vicinity of Cape Sable. High pressure centered over the central North Atlantic extending westward across the Florida Peninsula will support gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters for the next several days.
944 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 High pressure over the Tennessee Valley keeps our area dry overnight into Wednesday morning.
Earlier, thunderstorms moved through the area bringing wind gusts over 30 mph mainly in Valley county with the highest gust at St. Wednesday Night look a bit more active with a cold front sweeping through the CWA. A closed low pressure system is spinning over the central Rockies, spreading scattered thunderstorms across northern Wyoming and far southern Montana. By Wednesday afternoon, the ridge of high pressure will re-assert itself and push away all chances for precipitation.
1021 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 A weak cold front will move through the area overnight, with weak high pressure then building over the region from the north through Wednesday.
The main limiting factor is instability, as forecast highs are in the lower half of the 80s.
Models continue to show the possibility of fog overnight, with the lowest visibilities across the north. Current dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 70s areawide, but low level winds will be lighter across the north. Expect the low clouds and some passing high clouds could prevent dense fog, so will hold off on adding dense fog to the HWO.
Hot and breezy conditions out ahead of the cold front will create a critical fire weather threat across most of the region on Wednesday. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms along the cold front as it eases in from the northwest Wednesday evening. A weak front will slide southward on Wednesday with the ridge axis displaced to the west. Otherwise, the ridge builds back in for the latter part of the week into the weekend with 850-700 mb temps approaching climatological maxes. Winds will further increase to 20G30kt on Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front.
617 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Mid-level ridging will remain in place through the period.
It's looking more likely that southern WI will be in between the two better areas of convergence/lift with a trough/surface cold front slowly dragging south across northern WI while a deeper low pressure system tracks well to the south of WI. 00z RAP (and previous version) show the lower surface dew point air that is currently in place across most of southern WI expanding southward through tomorrow which should again limit our instability.
The evolution of the sfc pattern ahead of this wave remains somewhat uncertain, but a plausible scenario is that a strongly unstable warm sector develops across the fcst area by Wed afternoon marked on the western side by the advancing cold front with a remnant outflow boundary from early day storms intersecting the front near a weak area of low pressure.
This front will bring a period of widespread light rain and cooler temperatures. By the weekend, a ridge will amplify just offshore, bringing another period of warming temperatures and increased fire weather concerns.
850 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 High pressure moves across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon.
A warm front will push through during the late morning with an unstable atmosphere building in. CAMs are all over the place with timing and placement of storms but a round of storms looks possible in the afternoon behind the warm front.
Expect lows back down into the 50s away from the immediate coastal areas, with readings staying in the lower 60s near those big waters. A somewhat nebulous surface pattern will be in place as aforementioned upper-level features will support a cyclone that will trek north of the CWA across Ontario over Hudson Bay and high pressure over the southeast CONUS. Fumes of instability south of the bridge make thunder unlikely with this activity, while a few hundred joules of MLCAPE has already supported a few strikes across eastern upper. Warm Wednesday then Noticeably Cooler.
An upper ridge currently over western Montana will move east today nudging a frontal boundary that is currently near Havre and Winnett as far east as Glasgow and Glendive today. While most of the forecast area will have highs in the 80s to near 90, the northeast will remain cooler with highs only in the 70s. The ridge moves through eastern Montana this evening. The system will bring a cold front through the area Thursday morning. Thursday as the main trough and energy passes through the region, west winds will develop with gusts over 30 mph likely.
249 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 A dry day is expected on Wednesday as high pressure passes overhead.
Conditions will be warmer today, but with showers and maybe an afternoon thunderstorm possible. Showers will end from southwest to northeast into tonight as the low moves further east and warmer and drier air moves in. High pressure will stay out of the area well to the southwest. An upper ridge will start to build northward across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an upper short wave moving out ahead of the ridge into the Northeast will interact with diurnal instability to pop off some afternoon convective rain showers and thunderstorms. with dew points in the lower 60s. While still under a long-wave trough pattern, Thursday night may have some leftover lingering showers from a passing disturbance that afternoon.
1130 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 High pressure over the Tennessee Valley keeps our area dry overnight into Wednesday morning. Lows will be near normal values in the low to mid 60s. Wednesday high temperatures reach the low/ mid 80s as a moderate surge of theta-e pushes WAA and moisture to the region (a notable increase in Tds into the upper 60s will make for a sticky afternoon). This will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, with the highest pops over the southeast.
Little change is expected to occur within the overall synoptic pattern for the next several days with the area remaining under the influence of a robust and persistent midlevel ridge centered over the Northern Gulf. NBM guidance continues to exhibit little variability within its members in terms of daily temperatures, and with little in the way of change to the positioning of the aforementioned ridge it's another day where things mostly boil down to persistence.
Upstream satellite imagery and near term model data support mostly clear skies and a diminishing breeze overnight, as an unseasonably strong low pressure system over northern New England begins to pull away. Overnight lows should be fairly close to seasonal normals, ranging from the mid 50s over the NW Mtns, to the mid 60s over parts of the Lower Susq Valley. Mixing down model 850mb temps of around 15C translates to expected highs ranging from the upper 70s over the Alleghenies, to mid 80s in the Lower Susq Valley. Severe weather looks unlikely attm, as latest model guidance keeps the surface warm front south of the forecast area.
216 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 A dry day is expected on Wednesday as high pressure passes overhead.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) An upper ridge continues to dominate the weather in southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. Highs today are expected to reach well above a hundred degrees for most locations however model guidance may be on the high end of the forecast due to abundant mid and upper level cloud cover over the area from convective debris from northern Mexico and New Mexico. Again there will be rain chances along the trough with the best chances in the Big Bend and Davis Mountains.
211 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 A front will drop south with weak high pressure building in behind it today.
An active weather day is in store across the Mid-South as a couple of upper level troughs will bring periods of thunderstorms to the region today and tonight.
1238 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Mid-level ridging will remain in place through the period.
Later in the day, northerly winds will range 8 to 15 mph most locations as temperatures top out in the lower to mid 80s. Going in to tonight, winds will taper off as high pressure ridging builds across Kansas.
Ridging in the central North Atlantic extends across the forecast area this morning. This ridge will help to usher in the aforementioned drier air throughout the day today. Forecast soundings show the classic SAL profile, with a pocket of very dry air in the lower levels for the next few days.
Slight warmup is expected with temperatures a few degrees higher than yesterday with daytime highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and cooler off to the west. Dry conditions expected to continue for the majority of regions through the late week, with the weak upper level ridging transitions to quasi-zonal flow and increased wind speeds in this flow regime. Some concerns for the short term forecast, with a slight chance for some precipitation on Thursday as a weak cold front digs south through the Dakotas during that time frame.
Tonight and Wednesday The main highlights from this forecast period revolve around lingering isolated showers and thunderstorms through early this evening and additional showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday associated with a cold front. Mostly clear skies are anticipated for most tonight, with the exception of clouds moving into far north-central WI after midnight associated with an approaching mid-level trough. The better chances for showers and storms arrive around midday Wednesday and continue into Wednesday evening as a cold front slowly sags south across the area. High temperatures on Wednesday will be dependent on where the cold front sets up during the morning, but anticipate locations in central and east-central WI to see the warmest temperatures in the low to middle 80s, with middle to upper 70s in north-central WI.
At 08Z (3 AM), radar showed the strongest convection over central KS where the combination of instability and effective shear was the highest.
The main limiting factor is instability, as forecast highs are in the lower half of the 80s. Temperatures will remain in the lower half of the 80s for highs during the short term.
(Today and tonight) The forecast area will remain on the north side of a flat upper level ridge whose axis extends from Sonora to Florida. However, an upper level short wave trough over the Colorado/Wyoming Rocky Mountain chain early this morning will move eastward today, crossing Kansas and Nebraska this afternoon.
Therefore, southern WI is expected to remain well north of these showers, but we should still have the high clouds associated with them. Showers and storms are expected to develop along a slow-moving cold front over northern WI late this afternoon, stemming from low pressure swinging across Lake Superior. Thursday will feature sunshine and highs in the lower 80s with a steady northwest breeze.
Upper level high pressure will hold over the Florida peninsula through the weekend then troughing will deepen over the eastern U.
150 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 A weak high pressure will be over the region today. An upper level trough will approach from the west Thursday.
117 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 High pressure stays across the southern Appalachians today. Low pressure moves from the lower Missouri Valley to the mid Mississippi Valley through Thursday. We currently sit under generally zonal mid-level flow, with some minor troughing being introduced later Wednesday. Temperatures will be just a bit cooler than normal for August, with highs in the mid 80s in the Piedmont, low to mid 70s in the mountains.
In fact, this same trough was responsible for some mountain snowfall across northwest Wyoming last night and early this morning. just as the trough axis pushes through the area. Thankfully, once this upper level trough swings through the area later tonight/early Wednesday morning, weather conditions will quickly improve for Wednesday. All models show stable conditions in the low to midlevels with high LI's above +2c and a solid temperatures inversion just above 700mb. we have upper level ridging over the CWA. A low pressure system is tracking across the southern Alberta and Saskatchewan Provinces Thursday morning with a cold front draped across southern Montana.
Wednesday night into Thursday should be warmer, breezier and mostly dry as a wave approaches from the west. Lows for Thursday morning should be a touch milder and mainly near or just a bit warmer than 60.
Northwest flow develops on Wednesday, with ridging approaching Wednesday night. Weak high pressure will result in dry conditions overnight Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 80s. Upper ridging is set to be in place across the area by Thursday morning.
(Today and tonight) Today's weather will largely be centered around a cold front entering the area from the north. Fire Weather: A low level thermal ridge will develop ahead of the approaching front through western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. This westerly low level flow will enhance mixing (thus, warmer and drier) and bring down breezy winds. The highest winds and minimum RH will be slightly out of sync (low level jet moves off eastward by afternoon), but still result in elevated fire weather conditions. Additionally, a heat advisory has been expanded, again driven by the higher temperatures under the thermal ridge.
215 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Current convection is brewing in the Plains, centered around the area of low pressure moving into western Kansas.
(Today through Thursday) Hot and dry conditions continue today and tomorrow as mid-level high pressure continues to dominate over South-Central Texas. Lows will generally be in the mid-70s to low 80s, roughly 3-5 degrees warmer than normal this time of year. Another hot day Thursday, similar or a degree or so warmer than those seen this afternoon.
Shear is on the high side in the mid to upper-levels with storm motions of 25-35 mph heading towards the east-northeast. Moisture increases Wednesday and Thursday across all of northern Arizona as a weak, upper-level low off the northern Baja/southern California coasts engages with a high pressure ridge towards the southeast. Given that no big wind events look to be on the horizon, moisture will still stick around in the low to mid-levels. Southerly flow will still be in place thanks to low pressure off the California coast and high pressure towards the east.
214 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 A weak cold front will push off the coast early this morning, with weak high pressure building over the region today. A trough will move through the area on Thursday with the next chance for severe thunderstorms. However, a few isolated showers will be possible across the southern forecast area during the next few hours, near the front and as the upper trough axis passes overhead, with enhanced mid to upper level lift. Another quiet/dry day expected with weak high pressure building overhead and light westerly flow becoming light onshore in the afternoon as weak seabreeze develops.
221 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 High pressure stays across the southern Appalachians today. Low pressure moves from the lower Missouri Valley to the mid Mississippi Valley through Thursday. Early this morning, high pressure was located across the mid-south northward into the Ohio Valley, with a frontal boundary situated off the North Carolina coast stretching south, then west along the Gulf Coast.
By Thursday morning, an upper level trough and surface cold front should be moving into the western Dakotas. To start the period, a hot upper ridge over the far Southern Plains/Gulf Coast region is expected to develop/spread northwest across the western CONUS during the period.
Additional convection will be possible along this baroclinic zone today, though with marginal instability and ridging from the west this convective activity shouldn't be particularly strong. Today's highs will be divided by this stalled front with highs ranging from the lower 70s north to the mid 80s southwest.
446 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Isolated showers and thunderstorms today will be followed by more widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday with crossing low pressure. Daytime highs will be right around normal for this time of year, with highs in the low 80s (upper 70s in the mountains). 06Z runs have trended farther with the low track.
733 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Dry weather today will be followed by more widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday with crossing low pressure. Daytime highs will be right around normal for this time of year, with highs in the low 80s (upper 70s in the mountains). 06Z runs have trended farther with the low track.
A cold front will be sinking south today and may instigate some strong to severe storms across our southern tier counties this afternoon and evening. Current Conditions: A cold front is sinking south across northern MN this morning. Out ahead of this boundary there is some prefrontal troughing in the winds across the Brainerd Lakes Region. Thursday: High pressure fills in behind the low for Thursday with high temperatures expected in the 70s. Instability looks to be on the low side at this time but could still hear a few rumbles of thunder.
613 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 (Today and tonight) The subtropical ridge that has been in place across the Southern Plains and shifted to the southeast over the Texas Gulf coast.
The urban corridor and plains will reach the low to mid 80s. The mid level moisture will aid in creating isolated storms across the higher terrain but the limited low level moisture will keep most of these storms from making it onto the eastern plains. Therefore, PoPs were mostly kept to the higher terrain.
Temperatures are ranging into the 60s with winds mixed as remnant outflow from storms combined with a few weak troughs over the area are creating some gusts over 20 mph at times, but overall 10 mph or less. Otherwise, models trend the stagnant upper low currently over southern portions of the country into the Rockies a bit further east in the short term period.
Today will be relatively quiet as a transient ridge quickly shifts east throughout the day. However, change will arrive during the second half of the day as an upper low passes to our north and the associated trough swings through the region. At the same time, southwest winds will become breezy ahead of the cold front, with stronger winds expected Thursday behind the frontal passage.
Today will overall be very dry and quiet, weather-wise, with upper- level ridging building in overhead with relatively weak winds. Outside of the lower-end chance for a weak, short-lived shower or two over the mountains, there should be no precipitation in the area today. Flat upper ridge across the area on Thu, while mid level moisture begins to slowly increase, leading to a return of mainly isolated convection over the mountains and interior valley by afternoon. Ridge begins to amplify slowly starting on Fri, while air mass continues to moisten under very modest monsoon tap of moisture.
Brief ridging breaks down today with a decent disturbance riding along the Canadian border this afternoon and evening. Forecast models have trended toward a more defined, albeit still weak cold front and modest forcing. Gusty winds continue on the ridgetops Wednesday night then mix to valley floors mid to late Thursday morning.
613 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 (Today through Thursday) Hot and dry conditions continue today and tomorrow as mid-level high pressure continues to dominate over South-Central Texas. Lows will generally be in the mid-70s to low 80s, roughly 3-5 degrees warmer than normal this time of year. Another hot day Thursday, similar or a degree or so warmer than those seen this afternoon.