Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
120 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 A surface front will settle south of central NC tonight, with a lingering trough extending northward into the western Piedmont through Monday. High pressure will then ridge southward into the area through mid-week. At the surface, the front has largely pushed south through the area this evening, with some backdoor reinforcing slightly cooler, drier air expected to move into the northern Coastal Plain tonight as high pressure builds in. Upper level trough will be present over the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday with northwesterly mid-level flow over the region through mid week.
Looking at morning upper level analysis, the high pressure center has slid eastward and is over eastern Colorado, which as already noted places Iowa in northwesterly flow on the periphery of the upper level ridge and the northeastern North America trough.
208 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 The cooler conditions will continue through much of the work week.
Coverage of showers and storms may decrease somewhat tomorrow as most models show precipitable water values decreasing around 25 percent for many locations as ridging builds a bit across the state.
133 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 High pressure will settle into the region through the first half of the week.
329 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 A cold front will cross the region today.
A rather nice day is in store with maxTs in the upper 80s and minTs in the low to mid 60s. If the higher dewpoints are slower to mix out, a few isolated showers or thunderstorms may be able to survive and clip our far western counties.
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s to lower 70s. As this feature interacts with what could be some elevated instability and/or a cold front north of I-70, further shower/thunderstorm development is possible. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 90s to around 103 degrees. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
415 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 The cooler conditions will continue through much of the work week.
As for the rest of the day, concern will mostly focus on winds as model see a decent low-level jet move across the backside of the low. Currently afternoon high temperatures are expected to sit in the low to mid 40s for the afternoon, but with the winds these temperature could easily feel closer to the 20s. Similar, but slightly diminish, conditions are expected to be present Christmas Day with afternoon temperatures in the low 40s with a wind chill closer to the 20s and 30s.
403 AM PST Sun Dec 24 2023 High pressure aloft over the western states will bring a slow warming trend into the middle of the week with high temperatures warming to a few to around 5 degrees above average.
(Today) Widespread showers continue to expand across eastern OK early this morning as strong forcing associated with upper low moving out of the Rockies continues to spread eastward. The trend over the next several hours will be for this activity to move slowly east, likely weakening some as it moves into western AR later this morning as the primary forcing from the upper low becomes farther removed from main precip band. A narrow axis of instability is forecast to develop this afternoon near the approaching cold front across central and southeast OK. The high rates of rainfall on dormant vegetation will induce significant amounts of runoff and result in at least a localized flash flood threat, mainly in low lying and poor drainage areas, and the broad footprint of 1-3 inch rainfall will result in rises on streams and a few mainstem rivers.
629 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2023 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will keep dry conditions across the forecast area today with moisture increasing this evening.
642 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2023 (Today through Monday) Today will be the start of a transitional period, as the high pressure that has influenced South Florida over the last several days gradually pushes over the Atlantic, and an area of low pressure with an associated cold front moves into the central US and stretches down into the Gulf of Mexico. On Monday, the front will continue to push eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf of Mexico.
525 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Today and Tonight: A strong low pressure system will drop southeast into the central plains states through early Christmas morning. However, if the wake-low does indeed develop, winds could gust to between 35-40 mph late this afternoon into early Monday morning as the low moves through the area. Very mild conditions will continue through early afternoon, but cooler air will begin advecting in from the west as we approach the evening.
Deep moisture continues to advect northward ahead of the trough across central and eastern Kansas.
- It'll be turning colder this afternoon in the wake of a cold front allowing light rain to transition to snow over portions of central Kansas this evening.
H500 ridging over the Pacific Northwest early this morning will slowly slide east towards the Northern Rockies through Monday; however, a deepening cutoff low over the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley will help to keep the flow over North Central through Southwest Montana from the north to northeast through the period.
300 AM MST Sun Dec 24 2023 Through Christmas Day: High pressure and closer to normal temperatures are in store behind yesterday's cold front with a mostly brown Christmas for NE Montana this year. Sunshine, light winds and highs in the upper 20s and 30s will make it feel relatively mild for the holiday albeit notably cooler than last week.
As Santa starts his long journey tonight, at least the weather across NE Nevada will not be one of his concerns as high pressure will keep Christmas Eve quiet and cool.
914 AM PST Sun Dec 24 2023 High pressure aloft over the western states will bring a subtle warming trend into the middle of the week with high temperatures warming to a few to around 5 degrees above average.
As the energy associated with the approaching trough moves north, the system will fall apart bringing only high/mid clouds to the region today.
However, much of Hill Country will be a few degrees either side of freezing, especially in sheltered valleys.
While it should dissipate by late this morning or early afternoon, be prepared for locally poor visibility and icy roads from freezing fog. H500 ridging over the Pacific Northwest early this morning will slowly slide east towards the Northern Rockies through Monday; however, a deepening cutoff low over the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley will help to keep the flow over North Central through Southwest Montana from the north to northeast through the period.
(This evening through Monday) Quite the chill this Christmas Eve on the heels of a cold front now in the Permian Basin.
While it should dissipate by late this morning or early afternoon, be prepared for locally poor visibility and icy roads from freezing fog. There is the possibility that between now and 19Z freezing fog reducing visibility down to a half to quarter mile moves back in at the KBZN terminal so a TEMPO group is in the KBZN TAF. H500 ridging over the Pacific Northwest early this morning will slowly slide east towards the Northern Rockies through Monday; however, a deepening cutoff low over the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley will help to keep the flow over North Central through Southwest Montana from the north to northeast through the period.
1240 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 As a low pressure system slowly moves closer to the region moisture continues to increase across the area. /15/ Today and Tonight: A strong low pressure system will drop southeast into the central plains states through early Christmas morning. However, if the wake-low does indeed develop, winds could gust to between 35-40 mph late this afternoon into early Monday morning as the low moves through the area. Very mild conditions will continue through early afternoon, but cooler air will begin advecting in from the west as we approach the evening.
(Through Tonight) A solid shield of light to moderate rain continues across most of eastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas this afternoon as a slow moving trough drifts eastward through the Plains. A few lingering light showers will remain possible across northeast Oklahoma late tonight behind the front within the wrap around of the passage of the upper low, though any amounts with those showers will be fairly light, totaling just a few hundredths of an inch at most. Bowlan (Monday through Sunday) As we move into Christmas Day on Monday, the precipitation will be ending across northwest Arkansas and cool and breezy conditions will set in behind the cold front.
Low pressure tracking to the Western Great Lakes will push a band of rain across the region on Monday.
Dry northwest flow aloft today and ridging pushing in from the west on Christmas Day will result in a couple of quiet weather days across the region for the holiday.
329 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2023 High pressure has begun moving away from the region with clouds and moisture approaching from the south.
(Tonight through Monday night) A weak Pacific cold front is edging through the CWA today and will move offshore this evening. To the north, a sharp, positive tilt mid-level trough will dig south over the Plains tonight, maturing into a deep low over the Southern High Plains on Monday. While not directly impacting local weather conditions, additional high pressure will cascade south behind the low and over the CWA in the short term, bringing drier and cooler air to the region. Low temps tonight will be in the lower to middle 50s, with high temperatures warming into the middle and upper 60s on Monday. Low temperatures upstream Monday night will be just a bit colder than those of tonight, dipping into the mid 40s across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country, but remaining in the mid 50s for the lower RGV.
313 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2023 High pressure is pushing into the region, but cloudy conditions will continue into Christmas day.
136 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2023 High pressure has begun moving away from the region with clouds and moisture approaching from the south.
(This evening through Monday Night) Rain remains ongoing across the region, as the trough and cold front continue to inch closer to the area. However, cloud cover will linger in the wake of the low, making for a rather grungy Christmas for most people. Highs tomorrow will be split, as the surface front works it's way into the region, with highs north ranging in the low 50s, and highs south ranging in the low 60s. Proper cold front passage will occur during the day tomorrow, with a quick clearing of the skies shortly thereafter.
Total rainfall amounts tonight are anticipated to be around one half inch or less, with the highest amounts in western/southern locations. Resulting wind speed values are largely below Wind Advisory criteria, although close in a few spots, mainly along the higher terrain in Franklin, Jackson, and DeKalb Counties.
This low is currently getting it's act together over the front range of the Rockies, and is setting the Great Lakes region up with the warm and moist southerly flow on the warm side of the weather system.
(This afternoon through Monday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough has cleared West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon, w/the line of convection that moved through here last night approaching the east Texas border. Behind the trough, a cold front is intruding upon the area, resulting in gusty northwest surface flow at the moment. This cold front will brrrring much cooler weather to the region the next few days. Thicknesses continue to plunge, w/850mb temps of 5C or less up against the higher terrain.
the weather won't keep Santa out of southeast Idaho tonight! A ridge of high pressure will support quiet and dry conditions from this afternoon right through Christmas Day, with high temps running about 5 degrees below climatology (lower 20s to lower 30s) and lows closer to 10 degrees below climatology (single digits and teens and colder still in the Stanley and Copper basins). High pressure following departing storm systems this time of year of course means fog and low stratus concerns. Have again been generous in adding patchy freezing fog to the forecast for these areas from 7 PM tonight to 11 AM Christmas Day, but this will be the only hazard we'll contend with and it shouldn't be terribly widespread.
1103 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level trough is currently located across the Desert Southwest and will approach West Central Texas overnight into Sunday morning. As the aforementioned upper level trough approaches this evening, expect an increase in large scale lift across West Texas, resulting in the development of showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of a Pacific cold front.
This system passed a cold front across the panhandles earlier today setting up a cold and robust north winds. The most immediate impact of this drying will be the dissipation of the low level cloud deck that is currently over a large swath of the panhandles. Temperatures have fallen with the passage of the cold front earlier today with highs mainly in the 40s for today and Christmas.
A cold front will move through the area late this afternoon into this evening, resulting in gusty north winds and much cooler temperatures. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 30s, with wind chill values during the early morning hours in the mid to upper 20s.
As a low pressure system slowly moves closer to the region moisture continues to increase across the area. /15/ Today and Tonight: A strong low pressure system will drop southeast into the central plains states through early Christmas morning. However, if the wake-low does indeed develop, winds could gust to between 35-40 mph late this afternoon into early Monday morning as the low moves through the area. Very mild conditions will continue through early afternoon, but cooler air will begin advecting in from the west as we approach the evening.
259 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) An amplified upper ridge from the Great Lakes to the N Bahamas will shift E as a trough from the N Rockies to the S Plains develops into a large cutoff low over the Central Plains on Monday. At the surface, A cold front over the Plains will shift E as low pressure deepens over KS/NE and the frontal system occludes. Overall CAPE values have trended a bit higher, but it appears that there will be some warmer air around 700 mb during the event that may limit the depth of convection.
1134 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 (Today through Monday) Good weather welcomes Santa Claus to Deep South Texas and Rio Grande Valley as a dry cold front ushers in a cool and dry northwest flow for his flight tonight and Christmas Day. A mid-level trough and surface cold front over West Texas advances east today with the front pushing off the coast around sunset.
An upper level low pressure system over the Central Plains will be far enough displaced from northeast MT to keep the region dry.
Issued 226 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Tonight through Monday night: The increasing sely winds and higher dewpoints over a cooler ground is resulting in dense fog development south and west of Madison. For Christmas Day and night, low pressure will deepen from MO to IA to srn MN and occlude.
The upper-low/trough that brought accumulating snow to portions of the area is departing this afternoon and is taking all the moisture with it.
255 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2023 High pressure over the northeastern United States will continue to retreat offshore overnight.
A short wave will push a cold front into the western portions of the area later this evening and sweep across the area overnight. This will result in lows potentially holding above freezing and highs in the 50s F for most moving through midweek. A chill breeze will continue overnight with lows dropping into the lower 40s and upper 30s F for most.
A few of these showers have moved across mainly the Lower Keys, but rainfall accumulations have remained below a tenth of an inch in all island communities due the weak nature and faster motion of these showers. An expansive high pressure across the New England coast has maintained fresh to strong breezes along the Reef. The high pressure that has had a tight a tight grip on the region will be shoved further into the western North Atlantic by an eastward moving trough, and the gradient across the region will finally begin to relax tonight. This trough extends from the Central Plains into the Gulf of Mexico, and will not only help decrease winds, but will bring a surge of moisture to the area on its southern flank along a weak boundary.
(This evening through Monday) The large upper trough has continued to slow its eastward progress this afternoon and is expected to close off later tonight and intensify across Kansas, likely bringing blizzard conditions well to our north across portions of the central plains tonight into tomorrow. For our local area, a cold front is beginning to make more significant progress south and eastward, currently extending north-south nearly parallel to the I-35 corridor. A few light showers could linger overnight across far northern Oklahoma as the trough closes off to our north, and cannot rule out a snowflake or two mixing in here as temperatures cool, but no accumulation is expected.
153 PM MST Sun Dec 24 2023 Cooler and dry conditions prevailed over the area today in the wake of yesterday's system. Heading into Monday, ridging nudging in from the west will continue dry conditions, but a large upper low over the central Plains will spread clouds into southeast MT.
High pressure over the southwest states will deliver improving weather conditions through the coming week.
539 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 (This evening through Monday) Quite the chill this Christmas Eve on the heels of a cold front now in the Permian Basin.
520 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough has cleared West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon, w/the line of convection that moved through here last night approaching the east Texas border. Behind the trough, a cold front is intruding upon the area, resulting in gusty northwest surface flow at the moment. This cold front will brrrring much cooler weather to the region the next few days. Thicknesses continue to plunge, w/850mb temps of 5C or less up against the higher terrain.
A reinforcing cold front will slide through the area tonight bringing much drier, cooler conditions and breezy northerly winds that will continue into Monday/Christmas morning. Break out those ugly sweaters, hot cocoa, and warm PJs because Christmas will stay on the chillier side with afternoon high temperatures only getting into the low to mid 50s across much of the area. Low temperatures will drop down into the low to mid 30s Conroe northwards with parts of Houston County dropping into the upper 20s potentially. Areas along and south of I-10 will stay a bit warmer, only getting down into the upper 30s to low 40s.
831 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 00Z upper air analysis this evening shows a positively tilted upper-level trough located from the Central Plains southeast to the Lower Mississippi Valley.
A stronger low pressure system will develop over the Midwest and move slowly into the Great Lakes region through the middle of this week. This low pressure system will eventually move into the northeastern U.
Upper level ridging should then build over the region on Christmas Day bringing slightly milder temperatures and perhaps some breaks of sunshine later in the afternoon.
With overcast skies dominating much of the region, high temperatures this afternoon will struggle to make it out of the mid 50s in the Valley and upper 40s to low 50s over the higher elevations. The early week period will see a continuation of generally quiet and seasonable weather as ridging aloft persists.
Torgerson Cooler and dry conditions prevailed over the area today in the wake of yesterday's system. Heading into Monday, ridging nudging in from the west will continue dry conditions, but a large upper low over the central Plains will spread clouds into southeast MT.
A low pressure system takes shape to our west tomorrow.
Mixed precipitation and freezing rain will become a threat across northeast South Dakota, with significant icing possible in the Glacial Lakes region.
515 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 (Through Tonight) A solid shield of light to moderate rain continues across most of eastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas this afternoon as a slow moving trough drifts eastward through the Plains. A few lingering light showers will remain possible across northeast Oklahoma late tonight behind the front within the wrap around of the passage of the upper low, though any amounts with those showers will be fairly light, totaling just a few hundredths of an inch at most. Bowlan (Monday through Sunday) As we move into Christmas Day on Monday, the precipitation will be ending across northwest Arkansas and cool and breezy conditions will set in behind the cold front.
647 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2023 High pressure is pushing into the region, but cloudy conditions will continue into Christmas day.
Temperatures will gradually increase through the week as the region sits beneath a ridge of high pressure.
622 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 (This evening through Monday Night) Rain remains ongoing across the region, as the trough and cold front continue to inch closer to the area. However, cloud cover will linger in the wake of the low, making for a rather grungy Christmas for most people. Highs tomorrow will be split, as the surface front works it's way into the region, with highs north ranging in the low 50s, and highs south ranging in the low 60s. Proper cold front passage will occur during the day tomorrow, with a quick clearing of the skies shortly thereafter.
644 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2023 High pressure has begun moving away from the region with clouds and moisture approaching from the south.
630 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2023 High pressure is pushing into the region, but cloudy conditions will continue into Christmas day.
549 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 (This evening through Monday) The large upper trough has continued to slow its eastward progress this afternoon and is expected to close off later tonight and intensify across Kansas, likely bringing blizzard conditions well to our north across portions of the central plains tonight into tomorrow. For our local area, a cold front is beginning to make more significant progress south and eastward, currently extending north-south nearly parallel to the I-35 corridor. A few light showers could linger overnight across far northern Oklahoma as the trough closes off to our north, and cannot rule out a snowflake or two mixing in here as temperatures cool, but no accumulation is expected.
(Today and tonight) We will remain under the influence of a deep low pressure system twirling around the Central Plains. Surface ridging will continue to ooze into the area from the northwest keeping the area slightly below average for temperatures. This will allow winds to be breezy this morning but decrease through the afternoon as the surface ridging builds in.
Currently - High pressure that had dominated the eastern United States over the past several days is being kicked further out to sea by a mid latitude low swinging into the Mississippi Valley. Through the evening, shower activity has organized along a number of broken bands, of which, primarily the Lower Keys have been affected. Short Term Update - The Keys will remain within a moist confluent zone squeezed between the large ridge off the Atlantic coast and the low over the Plains. Forcing for deep convection will be limited due to the flow being more dominant by ridging at the lowest levels, nearly zonal flow aloft, and meager instability at best. The more veered flow, compared to prior days, will result in a warmer and more humid morning.