Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
243 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 High pressure at the surface will slowly build south tonight into Thursday night. Deepening low pressure to the south will slow the progression of this high pressure tonight and allow northerly winds to remain relatively strong, with gusts likely 20 to 30 mph, especially closer to northwest IA. With stronger winds in place leaned on the slightly warmer guidance for all but the mid James Valley where less clouds and lighter winds are expected. Highs will generally be in the mid teens to lower 20s with some warmer readings in south central SD closer to 30.
- Quick hit of cold air through Thursday, with above normal temperatures and highs above freezing returning this weekend.
Our weather is a bit quieter now, as the system that brought snow to the area yesterday continues to move off to the east and a ridge of high pressure builds in over the area. The potential wrench in the forecast is the low stratus/freezing fog expected to develop late tonight/early Thursday morning. While this brings some uncertainty into the forecast wind chills, current thinking is that temperatures and wind chills will have enough time to drop ahead of the stratus/freezing fog development.
235 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 Summary: Skies are beginning to clear as a Low pressure system moves off to the east.
ECMWF/GFS are in good agreement with the track of the low from north Texas to just southeast of Toledo. Strong isentropic lift ahead of the low will result in precipitation developing near the southwest corner of the cwa around 12z. support some several hours of sleet and/or freezing rain. Soundings look more like sleet to me due to the presence of a fairly deep sub-freezing layer closer to the ground. possibly mixed with some freezing rain. then transition to light snow on the back side of the low.
High pressure ridging extending over the forecast area from out of the east will continue to bring dry weather with mostly clear / partly cloudy skies throughout the day and on into tonight. High pressure will move further off to the east resulting in a more southwesterly prevailing flow which will bring increased cloud cover overnight and into Thursday morning. High pressure will move off to the east during this period, resulting in a warmer and more moist southwesterly flow from out of the Gulf.
LIFR conditions in freezing fog will return to the Umpqua, lower Rogue, and Illinois Basins tonight. With high pressure in control for the day, clear conditions should continue, and no forecast updates are necessary. Current satellite image shows low clouds and freezing fog in portions of the Umpqua Basin. Upper ridging will build into the area with dry weather expected today.
Increased afternoon highs over the interior just a degree, climbing to the lower 80s today. Leaned toward the lower WNAWAVE guidance for sea heights through 18Z, as the NWPS looks too quick to bring in 4ft seas, based on current buoy obs.
Frost and freezing temperatures are likely for many areas tonight into Thursday morning. Today through Thursday: A meridional flow pattern will prevail featuring upper ridging across the area with upstream troughing over the eastern Pacific. The upper ridge will shift to our east on Thursday as the eastern Pacific trough approaches.
the latest NBM guidance supports our previous forecast with the location for the higher snowfall accumulation being located near the Colorado border and north of Garden City. The amounts however may end up being a little less given the latest track of the weakening upper level trough, the latest HREF snow accumulation thresholds and WPC snowband probability through 6z Thursday. Based on the latest ensembles and deterministic models, the upper level low located over the four corners area at 12z Wednesday is expected to move across western Kansas and weaken overnight, with the upper level trough axis forecast to be located from Central Kansas into the Panhandle of Texas by 12z Thursday.
1035 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2023 Current upper air analysis shows the closed low sitting over MN/WI, with the secondary wave in the southwestern CONUS.
|The closed upper low can be seen on water vapor imagery over far north central Arizona early this morning and will be approaching the 4 corners region after daybreak. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal with highs in the 20s to 30s across most of the plains and urban corridor.
High pressure continues to drive the weather pattern. Temperatures will continue to warm above normal through the end of the week, with highs today ranging from the upper 70s into the low to mid 80s. Lows the next couple of nights will be a tad more moderate with temperatures falling into the upper 50s to the north and the lower to middle 60s further south. A deepening trough in the Central Plains today will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Thursday.
Mean-layer ridging centered just to the southeast of Florida supports low-level ridging anchored near Bermuda. Temperatures are nearing 80 across the island chain with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. High pressure centered near Bermuda will maintain moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes today through Thursday, before slackening ahead of an approaching weak frontal boundary.
226 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 High pressure will hold over the area even as the next low pressure system develops and heads towards the area Thursday.
(This afternoon through Thursday) The morning sfc analysis indicated a warm front that has lifted N into the I-30 corridor of NE TX/SW AR this morning, with this bndry expected to continue lifting farther N into SE OK/Wrn and Cntrl AR through the afternoon. Meanwhile, the short term progs indicate that low level moisture will also begin to deepen from S to N across the expanding warm sector by midday into this afternoon, along a developing Srly LLJ that will set up ahead of a closed low over the Four Corners Region that will eject NE out across Nrn NM/SE CO through the afternoon.
1146 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper low spinning over northern Arizona will slowly eject eastward into the Southern Plains by tonight.
Strong trough with an embedded vortmax will eject from the 4 corners region into the Great Plains tomorrow and merge/phase with another wave moving within the northern branch of the polar jet in Canada. This will create an impressive trough over the eastern CONUS that will progress eastward Thursday into Thursday night. This system will drive a cold front towards the CWA by Thursday night. SRH values are high, though aided by the presence of the front, and upper level dynamics will be decent despite positive tilt to trough which helps limit overall instability and lapse rates.
Water vapor satellite loops show closed low rotating over the four corners region, with diffluent flow ahead of it. If that wasn't enough, a tightening pressure gradient is also expected as the low tracks into southeast IL by 18z.
Clear skies will continue under dry as an upper ridge approaches from the west.
Dew-points are expected to climb into the lower 60s across southeast Oklahoma by late afternoon/early evening with MUCAPES in the 1500-2000 J/kg range.
With high pressure in control for the day, clear conditions should continue, and no forecast updates are necessary. Freezing fog and low clouds have covered the Umpqua Basin and sections of the Rogue and Illinois Valleys this morning. Based on latest satellite trends, some freezing fog still has a chance to form near KMFR this morning. Current satellite image shows low clouds and freezing fog in portions of the Umpqua Basin. Upper ridging will build into the area with dry weather expected today.
Dominant high pressure will ensure another pleasant day. Temperatures will continue to warm above normal through the end of the week, with highs today ranging from the upper 70s into the low to mid 80s. Lows tonight will be a tad more moderate with temperatures only falling into the upper 50s to the north and the lower 60s further south.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with temperatures gradually falling into the low 60s at the coast and into the low/mid 50s inland tonight. High pressure ridging extending over the forecast area from out of the east will continue to bring dry weather with mostly clear / partly cloudy skies throughout the day and on into tonight. High pressure will move further off to the east resulting in a more southwesterly prevailing flow which will bring increased cloud cover overnight and into Thursday morning. High pressure will move off to the east during this period, resulting in a warmer and more moist southwesterly flow from out of the Gulf.
Later this evening, as the low level jet and low level theta-e advection increase over the Delta region, we should begin to see the cap erode enough for a few storms to develop. Following the initial surge of theta-e, we'll be waiting for increasing cyclonic vorticity advection and the cold front to provide necessary lift for storms. The low level flow is expected to be somewhat veered with deeper flow more unidirectional and not as conducive for a tornado threat, but where surface wind backs locally, the threat could certainly ramp up given the strength of instability and rich boundary layer moisture.
Another cold night is expected tonight, but most locations will be several degrees warmer than the previous night. An area of low pressure will drop south over the coastal waters on Thursday, with most of the associated rain remaining offshore.
Showers will continue into Thursday night until a strong cold front moves through PA.
N flow will be over the forecast area tonight, with upper ridging building in on Thursday. Winds will be gusty along the 191 corridor as well with lee troughing in place.
206 PM PST Wed Feb 15 2023 Dry and cooler weather expected through late week with a slow warming trend during the weekend. The upper level low that brought rain and mountain snow showers has shifted over the Four Corners area. Eastern Pacific upper level ridging is shifting onshore. Breezy north winds are currently gusting up to around 20 to 25 mph in the Valley early this afternoon but are expected to diminish by late afternoon/early evening as the ridge axis shifts eastward and the surface gradient decreases. Low temperatures will likely be near freezing at many Valley locations, with frost possible.
132 PM PST Wed Feb 15 2023 Cold nights and mornings continue, though slightly warmer each afternoon into the weekend.
A few inches of snow are possible, as well as a glaze of freezing rain in this area. Temperatures will have a large range across the area Thursday, ranging from highs in the lower 30s northwest of the Illinois River, to lower 60s south of I-70.
(The rest of tonight) Storms from NE OK through south central OK have expanded in coverage the last few hours with scattered svr storms ongoing nearer the moisture defined warm front extending through SE OK. This has verified well with the recent short term guidance and the evening update will accept the near term solutions of expanding storms eastward as the cold front begins to surge eastward. Ongoing forecast has this well handled the update will largely be to refine timing of the higher precip chances.
544 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 Fairly quiet with winds decreasing as high pressure approaches. High pressure building into the area behind the system exiting the region. Skies to clear out again into Thursday with high pressure in place and temperatures remaining colder with highs into the single digits above zero.
539 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 An upper trough axis is over the high plains and Rockies late today, with a closed upper low in the base of the trough over CO. At the same time, a surface front extends from TX to the lower Great Lakes. However, as the upper trough and the system's cold front approach, additional showers and thunderstorms will develop and affect us from the afternoon into the night. The threats will quickly end as the cold front pushes through Thursday night. It's uncertain if the moisture will be deep enough to support ice formation/snow before the highest ridges near the VA border drop below freezing, and a bit of freezing drizzle can't be ruled out there.
Beginning with the potential of severe weather, the warm front and strong moisture advection has made it north of the Red River, with surface dewpoints in the 50s as well as temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s. A surface cyclone is currently stationed in north central Oklahoma with a cold front extending southwestward through far western Oklahoma, with a 30+ degree temperature gradient extending between central Oklahoma and northwestern Oklahoma. Well behind the cold front in southwestern Kansas and the Texas panhandle, snow is ongoing. With the exit of the surface cyclone and upper level trough to the northeast, precipitation is expected to end by daybreak Thursday morning. Temperatures will be much cooler, with overnight lows in the 10s and 20s, and afternoon highs only reaching the upper 30s/mid 40s.
531 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 Summary: Skies are beginning to clear as a Low pressure system moves off to the east.
304 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Colder through Thursday, with above normal temperatures and highs above freezing returning for this weekend.
916 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow morning with a passing warm front and along an advancing cold front Thursday evening.
806 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 Warm high pressure will continue through Thursday ahead of a strong cold front.
High pressure is passing across the silver state for the rest of the week leading to fair weather conditions and light winds. A ridge passing across the Great Basin is causing high pressure over the silver state for the rest of today and tomorrow. Winds will be light under the high pressure which will be a welcome relief from all the drifting snow that happened over the last few days. That being said the ridge will start a warming trend Thursday that will see the temperatures slowly recover.
656 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 An upper trough axis is over the high plains and Rockies late today, with a closed upper low in the base of the trough over CO. At the same time, a surface front extends from TX to the lower Great Lakes. However, as the upper trough and the system's cold front approach, additional showers and thunderstorms will develop and affect us from the afternoon into the night. The threats will quickly end as the cold front pushes through Thursday night. It's uncertain if the moisture will be deep enough to support ice formation/snow before the highest ridges near the VA border drop below freezing, and a bit of freezing drizzle can't be ruled out there.
520 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Colder through Thursday, with above normal temperatures and highs above freezing returning for this weekend.
The upper trough axis should be east of the CWA by 12Z Thursday morning. The low level winds become northwesterly after 06Z tonight, then even some normal drainage patterns by 12Z in many areas. With models continuing to show light snow over the CWA well into the evening hours, am reluctant to drop any of the highlights at this time. Thursday night, an upper level trough of low pressure will be over the Central Plains States with a large upper level ridge over the Intermountain West.
556 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) Warm and moist air advection continues as we stay ahead of the trough over southern Colorado. The upper 70s highs paired with dewpoints in the low 70s will prime the environment with rich low- level moisture. This creates some decent curvature in the lowest 1-2 km of the hodograph which translates 0-1 km SRH values right around 200 m2/s2. Therefore, this could possibly suggest the backing helping any mesocyclone that forms by venting the downdraft away from the updraft. Another thing to note is that the low-shear, high-CAPE events seem to do better than expected down here, so that is something to keep in mind as well for tomorrow.
Satellite imagery shows a ridge of high pressure building to the west, over the West Coast. The ridge axis will move over the Northern Rockies by Thursday afternoon. As a result of clearing skies tonight, overnight low temperatures will remain on the cold side in the single digits or slightly below zero across southwest Montana, Lemhi County, and the higher valleys of Idaho County such as Elk City.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow within the warm sector and along an advancing cold front.
The upper low is currently over southwest Colorado with a divergent flow ahead of it over the forecast area. The upper low itself will be over the area around 06z and east of the area by 12z.
317 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 High pressure building into the area behind the system exiting the region. Skies to clear out again into Thursday with high pressure in place and temperatures remaining colder with highs into the single digits above zero.
404 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 A low pressure system situated over the Four Corners region will continue an eastward track into the Central Plains.
442 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 High pressure at the surface will slowly build south tonight into Thursday night. Deepening low pressure to the south will slow the progression of this high pressure tonight and allow northerly winds to remain relatively strong, with gusts likely 20 to 30 mph, especially closer to northwest IA. With stronger winds in place leaned on the slightly warmer guidance for all but the mid James Valley where less clouds and lighter winds are expected. Highs will generally be in the mid teens to lower 20s with some warmer readings in south central SD closer to 30.
Upper-level ridging will push inland overnight as dry weather makes its last stand.
Mainly benign weather prevails tonight across the area with high pressure well in control region. Expect another mild night, slightly warmer than last night. (Rest of today through Thursday) High pressure continues to dominates the weather pattern in the short-term period, leading to mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. The upper-level ridge over South Florida will continue to slide eastward over the Atlantic, resulting in southeast flow that will bring a warming trend throughout the period. Tomorrow, highs will be a few degrees warmer and reach the low 80s for east coast regions and mid to upper 80s for the gulf coast and interior regions.
648 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 High pressure ridging extending over the forecast area from out of the east will continue to bring dry weather with mostly clear / partly cloudy skies throughout the day and on into tonight. High pressure will move further off to the east resulting in a more southwesterly prevailing flow which will bring increased cloud cover overnight and into Thursday morning. High pressure will move off to the east during this period, resulting in a warmer and more moist southwesterly flow from out of the Gulf.
(This evening through Thursday night) Warm and moist air advection continues as we stay ahead of the trough over southern Colorado. The upper 70s highs paired with dewpoints in the low 70s will prime the environment with rich low- level moisture. This creates some decent curvature in the lowest 1-2 km of the hodograph which translates 0-1 km SRH values right around 200 m2/s2. Therefore, this could possibly suggest the backing helping any mesocyclone that forms by venting the downdraft away from the updraft. Another thing to note is that the low-shear, high-CAPE events seem to do better than expected down here, so that is something to keep in mind as well for tomorrow.
1040 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 High pressure at the surface will slowly build south tonight into Thursday night. Deepening low pressure to the south will slow the progression of this high pressure tonight and allow northerly winds to remain relatively strong, with gusts likely 20 to 30 mph, especially closer to northwest IA. With stronger winds in place leaned on the slightly warmer guidance for all but the mid James Valley where less clouds and lighter winds are expected. Highs will generally be in the mid teens to lower 20s with some warmer readings in south central SD closer to 30.
133 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2023 Across the Tri State region this morning, skies remain cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries still falling over portions of the cwa on the backside of the exiting upper low. Going into today, the region will continue to be impacted by the slow moving upper low.
1225 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023 (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions prevailing as high pressure remains in control with mainly breezy ESE and S flow through the day.
Fairly quiet with winds decreasing as high pressure approaches. High pressure building into the area behind the system exiting the region. Skies to clear out again into Thursday with high pressure in place and temperatures remaining colder with highs into the single digits above zero.
240 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Through 18Z today: A powerful mid/upper low is located over western Kansas, and the associated deep tropospheric ascent is currently over portions of north-central Kansas and southern Nebraska. This is where the highest snowfall rates are occurring this morning. Rest of today through the weekend: As the upper trough exits the region, upper ridging translates over the central plains through the end of the week and into the weekend.
1135 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 Summary: Skies are beginning to clear as a Low pressure system moves off to the east.
1051 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Colder through Thursday, with above normal temperatures and highs above freezing returning for this weekend.
Those features will continue to shift eastward as a deepening trough located over the Central Plains continues to move across the U.
Snow is expected north of Holland, Grand Rapids, and Alma, while heading south of that line, there will be more of a tendency for ice pellets or freezing rain, turning to light snow late tonight. This is usually not well resolved in the models especially those with coarser grid resolution, though will tend to lean on the HRRR and ARW which suggest that the highest QPF may be focused in the vicinity of Holland-GR-Alma. Early on in the event, around mid day, rain or freezing rain in the vicinity of Jackson may occur.
Fog and overcast conditions and a few isolated rain showers will continue overnight ahead of the next cold front. This cold front will be a little more potent than yesterday's in the fact that there will be a noticeable wind shift and CAA in its wake. This deep cold air will keep daytime highs in the upper 50s north of Conroe and in the low to mid 60s elsewhere. Mostly clear skies and continued cold air advection means overnight lows on Thursday will reach the mid 30s for the southern half of our CWA and the low 30s elsewhere, especially north of Humble where temps are expected to drop to freezing.
127 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2023 An upper trough stretches from the Hudson Bay to the Desert SW, with its low spinning over eastern CO/western KS. Western CONUS upper ridging will move over the Rockies today, as the upper trough shifts eastward.
1244 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023 (Rest of today through Thursday) High pressure continues to dominates the weather pattern in the short-term period, leading to mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. The upper-level ridge over South Florida will continue to slide eastward over the Atlantic, resulting in southeast flow that will bring a warming trend throughout the period. Tomorrow, highs will be a few degrees warmer and reach the low 80s for east coast regions and mid to upper 80s for the gulf coast and interior regions.
(Today) Thunderstorms have cleared the area to the east, with much cooler and drier air pouring into the CWA from the north.