Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1140 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Southwest flow aloft continues over the area with an upper low in the northern Plains and a ridge over the east coast. The upper low will be slow to move into the Plains Monday and will remain here through Tuesday. Southeast flow at the low levels continues to bring warm and moist air into the region. A cold front extends through Kansas and Oklahoma into Texas. The cold front will move out of eastern Arkansas Monday morning. High pressure moves into the area Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Highs Monday will be in the mid 40s to lower 60s and cooler Tuesday in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
1042 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 (The rest of tonight) Rain is ending from southwest to northeast this evening as a cold front moves across the area, and this trend will continue overnight.
1029 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 (This evening through Monday) Quite the chill this Christmas Eve on the heels of a cold front now in the Permian Basin.
The upper-low/trough that brought accumulating snow to portions of the area is departing this afternoon and is taking all the moisture with it. By Tuesday the cut-off low will begin its slow trek eastward as a ridge comes in behind it. This ridge should hang around for a while, (through this week) which will keep conditions dry and mild.
High pressure off the southern California coast will bring a slow warming and drying trend over Arizona this week. Arizona is between a building high pressure system off the SO CAL coast and an area low pressure over Wyoming and Colorado.
It will remain unseasonably mild today with high temps reaching the lower to middle 50's.
(Today and tonight) Low clouds will exist much of the day over north central Oklahoma while a low pressure center moves little over eastern Kansas.
1024 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2023 High pressure has begun moving away from the region with clouds and moisture approaching from the south.
This light rain is the result of fleeting forcing as the upper-level low wobbles back west while the warm front advances north. A closed low, cut off from the the mean flow across the southern US, will slowly meander east across the Midwest in the coming days. Rain tapers off later Tuesday morning following the warm front passage during the preceding 12 hours.
107 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2023 High pressure is pushing into the region, but cloudy conditions will continue into Christmas day.
(Tonight through Christmas Day) Light shower activity has begun to overspread the area from the south this evening ahead of an upper wave currently swinging across the lower Mississippi River Valley.
(The rest of tonight) Rain is ending from southwest to northeast this evening as a cold front moves across the area, and this trend will continue overnight.
(Today through Tuesday) Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Merry Christmas from the NWS Austin/San Antonio midnight crew! The Pacific front bringing showers/storms to region yesterday morning is now well to the east of the area, with a secondary/trailing cold front evident from the ArkLaTex southwest into Brush Country & the Rio Grande Plains. Winds have turned northerly behind the secondary front, allowing drier air & cooler temperatures to begin filtering into the area.
1225 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 (Tonight through Christmas Day) Light shower activity has begun to overspread the area from the south this evening ahead of an upper wave currently swinging across the lower Mississippi River Valley.
The cold front that moved through the region yesterday has brought in a much cooler and drier airmass. Temperatures today will be much cooler than the past few days in the upper 40s to low 50s with modest cold air advection continuing for much of the day.
The brisk W/NW winds with the cold front are knocking on the door now at Paris and Terrell. The cold front had a nice thunderstorm going in just WNW of Palestine, but it is weakening now.
1017 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough has cleared West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon, w/the line of convection that moved through here last night approaching the east Texas border. Behind the trough, a cold front is intruding upon the area, resulting in gusty northwest surface flow at the moment. This cold front will brrrring much cooler weather to the region the next few days. Thicknesses continue to plunge, w/850mb temps of 5C or less up against the higher terrain.
A very large upper level low will drift slowly across the central and eastern U. The strong subtropical jet over the Gulf of Mexico will lift just north of the forecast area as weak upper level ridging develops over Florida. A warm front in the Gulf will move to the Florida coast by evening with rain overspreading the area by noon. Drier air comes in late Tuesday as a cold front moves through. A series of reinforcing cold fronts will keep temperatures seasonably cool with a small chance of rain (06Z TAFS) Moist air riding up and over an approaching warm front will turn VFR conditions to MVFR CIGS and VSBY after 14Z. Keep an eye on the forecast as a series of cold fronts will pass through the area this week with winds and seas increasing behind each cold front.
Mixed precipitation and freezing rain will become a threat across northeast South Dakota, with significant icing possible in the Glacial Lakes region. Across the Glacial Lakes area into west central Minnesota, more icing is expected as warmer air moves into that region.
1059 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 (This evening through Monday) The large upper trough has continued to slow its eastward progress this afternoon and is expected to close off later tonight and intensify across Kansas, likely bringing blizzard conditions well to our north across portions of the central plains tonight into tomorrow. For our local area, a cold front is beginning to make more significant progress south and eastward, currently extending north-south nearly parallel to the I-35 corridor. A few light showers could linger overnight across far northern Oklahoma as the trough closes off to our north, and cannot rule out a snowflake or two mixing in here as temperatures cool, but no accumulation is expected.
1151 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 00Z upper air analysis this evening shows a positively tilted upper-level trough located from the Central Plains southeast to the Lower Mississippi Valley.
605 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 - Widespread rain today with windy conditions and mild temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
- Colder temperatures move in this morning behind a cold front with breezy NW winds this morning becoming westerly this afternoon. As of 330 AM the cold front is oriented north to south from around Lamoni (IA) through Clinton MO, with much cooler temperatures and winds turning WNW behind the front. High temperatures across eastern portions of our forecast area should be much warmer, with highs in the low to mid 50s before the cold front arrives later this morning.
/29 (Now through Tuesday) Scattered showers currently over a small portion of Okaloosa and Covington counties are located along and ahead of a cold front which has moved across the area this morning. Dry conditions follow through Tuesday as a large upper low over the Plains drifts a bit eastward along with a modest secondary cold front moving through the forecast area tonight. This pattern ushers drier and cooler air into the region, with lows tonight in the 40s along and west of I-65 and 50 to 55 further to the east. Highs on Tuesday will be around 60 along and west of I-65, and in the lower to mid 60s east of I-65.
Rex blocking pattern will support retrogression of an upper low in the central plains today as a moisture ladden low level reflection shifts west. In addition, some freezing rain/drizzle is possible, esp where any mid level drying occurs. After Wed, things will dry out and warm up for the second half of the week as the western NOAM ridge shifts east and Pac flow spreads into the region.
A ridge of high pressure continues to build over the northern Rockies with a very dry air mass.
High pressure at the surface will build into the region through the day in the wake of a cold front, but cooler conditions won't begin filtering into the forecast area until later today and overnight. With skies becoming partly sunny this afternoon, highs will range from the low to upper 60s. Lows will be noticeably cooler as they range from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
Meanwhile, only the Lower Keys has seen any rainfall this morning, with KBYX detecting a line of showers extending from west of Elbow Cay across to the nearshore waters north of the Lower Keys. Winds should come down later today as high pressure continues to slide eastward in the west- central Atlantic this afternoon, as a frontal boundary pushes across the Gulf of Mexico.
Highs rebound a few degrees for Tuesday afternoon, but remain just below normal in the low to mid 50s.
High pressure off the southern California coast will bring a slow warming and drying trend over Arizona this week. A large and cold low pressure system will affect the central and Northern Plains over the next couple of days, with otherwise good travel weather within a days drive of northern AZ. Cold and dry air on the back side of this low will keep northeast parts of the state slightly below normal for afternoon high temperatures through Tuesday, with areas from the Mogollon Rim southward near or slightly above normal.
So far the low this morning has been between -5 and -9 degrees. For West Yellowstone, temperatures overnight have been between -10 and negative 20 degrees with some freezing fog in the area. As this weak low pressure system moves southwest, winds along the Rocky Mountain Front has a 60% probability of gusting up to 55 mph.
High pressure off the southern California coast will bring a slow warming and drying trend over Arizona this week. Meanwhile, high pressure begins to builds off the Pacific gradually extending eastward into Arizona. A large and cold low pressure system will affect the central and Northern Plains over the next couple of days, with otherwise good travel weather within a days drive of northern AZ. Cold and dry air on the back side of this low will keep northeast parts of the state slightly below normal for afternoon high temperatures through Tuesday, with areas from the Mogollon Rim southward near or slightly above normal.
The dense fog will gradually lift this morning as east to southeast winds continue and as the lower layers try to mix out once again. A large low pressure area over far southern Iowa will start to occlude as the upper low remains nearly stationary. The cold front associated with a rapidly occluding system will move across the area Tuesday bringing more rain and cooler temperatures.
The general pattern will be ridging across the Rockies through the period, which will bring mainly dry weather. Temperatures will be colder than recent days following the passage of the cold front yesterday, but should gradually moderate through the period to above normal levels by the end of the week. The first one is tonight and Tuesday with what happens with an upper level low moving into the Central Plains.
Confidence is highest in the lower cigs forecast at this time, but does continue to increase as far as the low vsbys.
1007 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 The rain has moved out of the area and cooler air is slowly moving into the region.
Light snow along a weak warm front in SE Oregon this morning will dissipate by the time it reaches SW Idaho later this afternoon as an upper ridge builds over the area. Pockets of freezing rain in vicinity of KBNO tonight.
1117 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Merry Christmas from the NWS Austin/San Antonio midnight crew! The Pacific front bringing showers/storms to region yesterday morning is now well to the east of the area, with a secondary/trailing cold front evident from the ArkLaTex southwest into Brush Country & the Rio Grande Plains. Winds have turned northerly behind the secondary front, allowing drier air & cooler temperatures to begin filtering into the area.
(Today through Tuesday Night) A much quieter short-term forecast is on tap with the passage of the cold front overnight. from the mid to upper 30s north of the I-10 corridor and the lower to mid 40s for the Houston metro south to the coast. Tues highs are going to be in the upper 50s with lows ranging from the mid 30s far north to the lower to mid 40s south/coast.
The strong sub- tropical jet remains in place through Tuesday as a large scale upper low strengthens over the Rockies and Central Plains. Temperatures will be cooler but remain near seasonal averages with highs today and Tuesday mid 60s to near 70 while lows tonight dip into the upper 40s to low to mid 50s.
1155 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 (Today and tonight) We will remain under the influence of a deep low pressure system twirling around the Central Plains. Surface ridging will continue to ooze into the area from the northwest keeping the area slightly below average for temperatures. This will allow winds to be breezy this morning but decrease through the afternoon as the surface ridging builds in.
1109 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night) A much quieter short-term forecast is on tap with the passage of the cold front overnight. from the mid to upper 30s north of the I-10 corridor and the lower to mid 40s for the Houston metro south to the coast. Tues highs are going to be in the upper 50s with lows ranging from the mid 30s far north to the lower to mid 40s south/coast.
This trough is slowly nudging the area of high pressure that has been planted over the Eastern Seaboard over the past several days eastward into the west-central Atlantic. Although much of the morning may remain dry across the island chain, activity should begin to flourish by this afternoon and evening, as the mid-level ridge continues to erode and deeper moisture aloft advects in from the west.
- Major changes to headlines due to a westward shift of the low. A whole truck load of uncertainty was introduced to the forecast tonight with a westward shift of the low. This pushes a warm air nose into central SD as the low moves west/southwest into Nebraska this evening. By mid morning Tuesday, most locations east of the James valley will be on the cusp of the freezing mark with forecast temps hovering in that 32 to 35 degree range. This still puts the Coteau at over half an inch of freezing rain accums.
Our next potentially more widespread rain event arrives during the middle of the week before temperatures trend cooler heading towards the New Year. Upper low over our region will slide southeast through the day as upper ridging to our west slowly builds toward our region. The sun angle is the lowest of the year, but again, light southwest boundary layer flow and just a little daytime mixing will help some holes in the clouds form, mainly this afternoon. Still, the late day potential peeks of sun will result in only a slow rise in temperatures, to highs in the lower to mid 40s with around 40 northern areas.
The good news is that Santa and his team of reindeer, led by the magnificent Rudolph (who was instrumental in guiding Santa's sleigh through the low visibility caused by overcast skies and rain that moved across the state overnight) have not been delayed in their journey across the country given the challenging weather conditions. TODAY (Christmas Day): An upper lvl closed low continues is positioned over the Central Plains region of the CONUS and remains northwest of the CWA. Ahead of this feature, a cold front will complete a journey across Arkansas from west to east. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: The upper lvl closed low will slowly move ENE over northern Missouri.
259 AM MST Mon Dec 25 2023 A quiescent weather pattern continues for the remainder of the week/year featuring mild temperatures, mostly clear skies and light winds under a broad upper level ridge. The influence of a vertically stacked low pressure system will remain just to the southeast over the next few days, besides some cloud cover extending into NE Montana temporarily.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through the first half of the week before high pressure builds in and leads to a gradual warming trend for the latter half of the week. Quiet weather conditions continue across the Desert Southwest as the current synoptic pattern features troughing across the central CONUS and a building upper level ridge along the West Coast.
Turning cooler and unsettled mid-week and beyond. Occluded front and associated low pressure system lift north over the Mid-west region tonight. Expect strong gusty winds between 28 to 35 knots along the eastern mountains, and 15 to 25 knots across the lowlands especially nearby showers mainly tonight. An associated cold front approaches from the west, bringing additional forcing for Tuesday. Lows will range from the low 50s lowlands, ranging into the mid 30s highest elevations of our northeast mountains. WAA continues on Tuesday, with highs reaching the mid 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s northeast mountains.
917 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 The cold front has moved through the region and has clear out the remaining fog.
- Snow, blowing snow, and freezing rain is expected to develop this afternoon, continue through the day Tuesday, and through Tuesday night mainly in the Winter Weather Advisory and Ice Storm Warning counties. Light snow/freezing rain may occur in counties a bit west/north of those in the advisory. With ample moisture available, this is expected to generate moderate to significant icing with the highest confidence in the far southeastern forecast area. In regard to the ice, cluster analysis really limits the low-level warm nose in the CWA and doesn't seem quite as bullish on losing ice in the DGZ. The HREF FRAM produces fairly widespread freezing rain in the south central, including the James River Valley.
1044 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 (Today and tonight) Low clouds will exist much of the day over north central Oklahoma while a low pressure center moves little over eastern Kansas.
A slow moving low pressure system will provide chances for rain over the next couple of days. Intermittent rainfall will continue through the end of work week, with cooler air from Canada building back in late in the week. Mild air mass persists underneath an H5 ridge. However, this ridge will get pinched as an upper low begins to work its way into the central CONUS. Cold front will not be very far east of the area when a wave lifts north along this boundary.
a large closed upper-level trough is present over the central US with ridges flanking the trough on each side. This results in cooler than average temperatures that slowly trend warmer.
1000 AM PST Mon Dec 25 2023 Dry weather will prevail under a high pressure ridge through most of this week with temperatures near or slightly above seasonal normals. A trough of low pressure could bring precipitation this weekend along with cooler weather, but precipitation amounts are likely to remain low. Otherwise, fair weather will prevail through Thu/Fri with highs generally a little above seasonal normals, though the high clouds may be tempered a bit from the clouds. A trough of low pressure could finally be deep enough to bring some rain to the area.
Mid level dry air will wrap around the southern side of the upper low this morning and rainfall will end from southwest to northeast through the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s. A cold front moves through the area tonight, with cooler air arriving. Low level moisture will remain elevated keeping skies cloudy, but lows Tuesday morning will be in the lower 40s far northwest to mid 50s far southeast.
Uncertain just how far northeast the clearing line will advance this afternoon as the upper level low becomes increasingly cut off from westerlies and lingers over the Central Plains.
511 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 (Today and tonight) We will remain under the influence of a deep low pressure system twirling around the Central Plains. Surface ridging will continue to ooze into the area from the northwest keeping the area slightly below average for temperatures. This will allow winds to be breezy this morning but decrease through the afternoon as the surface ridging builds in.
509 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Merry Christmas from the NWS Austin/San Antonio midnight crew! The Pacific front bringing showers/storms to region yesterday morning is now well to the east of the area, with a secondary/trailing cold front evident from the ArkLaTex southwest into Brush Country & the Rio Grande Plains. Winds have turned northerly behind the secondary front, allowing drier air & cooler temperatures to begin filtering into the area.
Well above normal temperatures will persist today, with temperatures already sitting in the low 50s away from Lake Michigan. Temps will remain a bit cooler near the lake due to onshore winds. Cooler near the lake isn't a common phrase in late December. Temperatures will fall tonight as a cold front sweeps through the area, with colder highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s on Tuesday.
839 AM MST Mon Dec 25 2023 MORNING UPDATE: Merry Christmas from northeast Montana! The storm system in the upper midwest will bring the edge of the high cloud shield into eastern Montana today and tonight, but generally PoPs near the I-94 corridor near Wibaux remain under 15%. -Enriquez PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A quiescent weather pattern continues for the remainder of the week/year featuring mild temperatures, mostly clear skies and light winds under a broad upper level ridge. The influence of a vertically stacked low pressure system will remain just to the southeast over the next few days, besides some cloud cover extending into NE Montana temporarily.
Strong upper level ridging to the west has brought a cold northerly airflow, with widespread temperatures in the single digits in the Snake River plain, and quite a bit of below zero in the alpine basins of the central Idaho mountains, the Bear Lake basin, and along the Montana border. Temperatures with be slightly warmer than yesterday and then another cold night. Late tonight, a weak trough breaks down the ridge enough to bring some light precipitation, mostly to the central Idaho mountains. On Wed, the ridge axis slides over the forecast area, and a shift to southwest wind aloft helps break the icy grip of the north wind.
Quiet and dry conditions exist for Monday and Tuesday as upper level ridging remains over the area that will mute the potential for any significant precipitation. A trough moving into the Pacific NW tonight will help push the ridge eastward and allow for some light sprinkles over the Coastal Range but no significant rain is expected. Forecast pattern changes to more active weather as a low pressure in the Pacific begins to move weather systems through Northern California.
311 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 - Widespread rain today with windy conditions and mild temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
458 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 (Today and tonight) Low clouds will exist much of the day over north central Oklahoma while a low pressure center moves little over eastern Kansas.
1116 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 The cold front has moved through the region and has clear out the remaining fog.
942 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2023 Southerly flow ahead of a slow moving low pressure area in the middle Mississippi River Valley will bring mild air to the area with readings topping out near 60 degrees.
348 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night) A much quieter short-term forecast is on tap with the passage of the cold front overnight. from the mid to upper 30s north of the I-10 corridor and the lower to mid 40s for the Houston metro south to the coast. Tues highs are going to be in the upper 50s with lows ranging from the mid 30s far north to the lower to mid 40s south/coast.