Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
245 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023 Showers will continue across southwest Montana through the mid morning hours as moisture wraps around a low pressure system in central Montana. By early this afternoon, a shallow layer of mid- level moisture and instability will kick off showers and isolated thunderstorms along the divide and across the higher terrain. A high amplitude blocking pattern will take shape across the western U.
Look for high pressure to build over the region today.
113 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure is overhead this morning but shifts to the Mid Atlantic States by this evening.
411 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide mostly dry weather and warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Temperatures aloft are much warmer than yesterday, so highs will be able to reach the low to mid 70s in most spots. Dry weather elsewhere as expansive high pressure remains centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with southerly return flow circulation maintaining the warming trend. Temperatures will only dip into the low to mid 50s across the Lake Plains, with upper 40s across the higher terrain areas.
942 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023 Water vapor shows main upper low rounding the Four Corners with disturbed southwest flow extending through the Northern Plains. At the surface, low is deepening over the Central Rockies with inverted trof extending northeast into southwest SD. Much of our area is being impacted by short wave ridge/subsidence in wake of aforementioned short wave, although more agitated cu has been developing in the convergence zone across the northern Black Hills and Bearlodge.
1049 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023 Aside from a few light showers along and west of the James River this morning, have seen largely quiet conditions prevail across the region as an upper level trough deepens across the southwestern CONUS. By Thursday morning, models show an upper level low becoming cut-off as it moves over the Rockies. Should see coverage increase heading into the afternoon/evening, especially along and west of I-29 as the aforementioned upper level low edges closer to the region.
112 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 Quiet weather will persist over the next several days with high pressure in control.
314 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure brings another beautiful day to the region with spring like temperatures and sunny skies.
143 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure provides warm and dry weather through most of the day Thursday.
243 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023 08z surface analysis had low over CO with inverted trough into western SD. Effect of upper low main forecast concern this morning.
257 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will continue to bring dry weather and seasonable temperatures to the region through the end of the weekend. For temps tonight, blended in high res guidance with NBM 10% to try and capture some of the cooler spots while also making manual edits to a few areas that guidance was really far off on. Big bubble, no trouble! High pressure will remain over the region throughout the period.
943 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023 The active weather pattern is starting to ramp up currently, as the trough settles across the Four Corners region. Morning sounding showed directional shear across the lowest 10000 feet, and inverted-V sfc profile. After this wave moves through, models continue to move the main H5 trough norther across Colorado. This lowers steering flow across northern and western Wyoming to almost nothing, so any storms that have formed will possibly slow and meander through the evening and early overnight.
Discussion: A midlevel ridge axis is over the area this morning, and showers on the western side of the ridge have been dissipating as they reach our southwestern counties. Through today, the ridge axis will be shifting to the northeast, allowing for deeper moisture to spread into the area. The forecast will have a low to slight chance PoP that favors southern and western sections, and the higher terrain of the Smokies.
Models are in pretty good agreement as to the track of this low in the next couple days.
Accordingly, have mainly updated the forecast to fine tune the low temperatures and add in the current T/Td/Sky obs to those grids. High pressure continues to remain over the area and courtesy of that dome of high pressure; clear skies exist and temperatures have climbed into the upper-70s. High pressure will continue into the overnight with mostly clear skies expected. As the warm front lifts into the region, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible.
400 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide warm and dry weather for most of the region today.
1250 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will continue to build across the area through tonight. The high will shift far off the NC with mostly dry conditions prevailing through Thursday.
356 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
453 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure begins to weaken over the area today.
The deviation as usual will be the cooler lakeshores, progged to top off in the 60s. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough and closed low over the Rockies and a ridge over the northern plains into the upper Great Lakes 00z Fri. The closed low moves to the northern plains 12z Sat and then gets absorbed into a trough in the northeastern U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the northeastern U. with a ridge in Alberta and British Columbia and a closed low over the swrn U. There is also an upper level ridge over the sern U. Pattern changes little 12z Mon except that the ridge becomes stronger in western North America while the trough amplifies in the northeastern U.
1222 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will continue to bring dry weather and seasonable temperatures to the region through the end of the weekend. For temps tonight, blended in high res guidance with NBM 10% to try and capture some of the cooler spots while also making manual edits to a few areas that guidance was really far off on. Big bubble, no trouble! High pressure will remain over the region throughout the period.
At the surface, ridge axis has shifted north, with low-level southerly to southeasterly flow expected across the area today. By late this afternoon, guidance forecasts best zone of deep moisture will be across the eastern half of the forecast area, coinciding with peak heating and the approach of the weakening upper trough.
The highest chances at this time lay along central and northern TAF sites. Upper low over TX and W Gulf this afternoon to open and impinge on Eastern U. upper ridging with moderate vort maxes approaching FL Thursday afternoon.
307 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 Early summerlike day today as lower MI remains firmly under the influence of eastern CONUS upper level ridging. Steady albeit weak southwesterly flow through the lowest ~250mb in combination with mostly sunny skies supports highs well above average in the upper 70s to low 80s.
At 07z GOES water vapor imagery depicts an amplified pattern over the central conus with an upper low digging into the southern high Plains and a downstream ridge axis through the midwest. Another more transient disturbance was noted near the ArkLaTex region, moving north beneath the ridge as it becomes absorbed within the mean flow. This lowers confidence a bit wrt to convective precip into the morning hours, but the more organized area of convection over south MN should propagate south and east along the moisture/instability gradient and into north central Iowa.
As we move into the late afternoon hours, our attention will turn to the west where a negatively tilted trof will eject from the Rockies in the central/southern Plains.
125 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will continue to bring dry weather and seasonable temperatures to the region through the end of the weekend. For temps tonight, blended in high res guidance with NBM 10% to try and capture some of the cooler spots while also making manual edits to a few areas that guidance was really far off on. Big bubble, no trouble! High pressure will remain over the region throughout the period.
Two upper lows are visible on water vapor imagery across the region this morning. As the initial upper low drifts north this morning, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase across east-central and northeast Kansas. This evening and overnight, convection over western Kansas and Oklahoma associated with the western upper low will attempt to spread northeast in one or two arcing bands. A dryline/Pacific cold front will arc southeast of this low, though there remain some minor differences on the exact east/west position. The upper low will hang around through the weekend, but will steadily weaken as strong ridging builds over top of it across western Canada.
An upper level low currently in the Southwest US is forecast to slowly move towards the upper midwest by Friday night. The scattered showers will continue on Friday as precipitation continues to rotate around the main upper level low to our east.
After preforming every Colorado type of spring weather in the last three days, we're remain on track for ample amounts of moisture across the region thanks to the upper level trough. Given the movement of the low pressure system, expect rain showers become periodic as moisture wraps on the backside of this system by this evening. As the low pressure system exits, northwesterly flow will increase across the plains.
Closer to Lake Michigan, high pressure will continue to influence the wind pattern. There remains uncertainty amongst the high- res guidance regarding the coverage of this initial activity and how far north it gets due to the drier air that needs to be overcome. Anderson (Issued 327 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023) Friday through Friday Night: This time period will feature our best chances for showers and a few thunderstorms, as a warm front slowly lifts north towards the area. By Friday night, lingering chances for showers will continue across the area but any lingering activity should begin to wane as high pressure begins to build in from the northeast. This Weekend: PoPs have lowered quite a bit as high pressure from Canada gradually builds south.
However later this afternoon expect a diffuse warm front pushing up from the southeast will rejuvenate convection and pose both a threat of severe weather and a flood threat. However the best trigger for convection arrives late this afternoon as the upper low pushes the weak warm frontal boundary up into southwestern Nebraska. 0-6km bulk shear values of 40 to 50kts will accompany the warm front as if pushes up from the southwest late this afternoon/early this evening with well curved hodographs will support rotating updrafts and organized convection.
755 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions through Friday, with gradually warming temperatures. Rain chances increase Friday night as low pressure approaches the region. Another dry day with warming temperatures as the area remains under the influence of high pressure. With the high centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast, an increase in warm air advection is expected as our winds veer to the south. Any rain that accompanies these clouds will have a difficult time reaching the ground as the lower levels of the atmosphere remain very dry.
647 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide warm and dry weather for most of the region today. Increasing chances for showers and storms expected overnight into Friday ahead of warm front. Mid level ridge axis to build a little east over the area today. With mid level ridge overhead and airmass starting out relatively dry, model solutions have trended a little slower with convective development into the southwest today. With filtered sunshine expect warm temperatures to reach highs from near 80 north to the lower 80s south. Expect scattered showers with northward advancing warm front. Milder temperatures to be observed tonight with lows from the upper 50s northeast to the lower 60s southwest. Will allow pops to increase to categorical across the northwest to north counties along warm front and ahead of a weak surface wave.
659 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide mostly dry weather and warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Temperatures aloft are much warmer than yesterday, so highs will be able to reach the low to mid 70s in most spots. Dry weather elsewhere as expansive high pressure remains centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with southerly return flow circulation maintaining the warming trend. Temperatures will only dip into the low to mid 50s across the Lake Plains, with upper 40s across the higher terrain areas. Temperatures at 850mb will rise to around +12C across the eastern Great Lakes region, which will support high temperatures in the low 80s across inland areas. A moisture starved cold front will drop southward across the region Friday evening.
620 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 Aviation -- Warm and Dry Today -- With the upper level ridge just to the west, temperatures will make a run at 80 today with scattered high clouds and a light south-southwest wind. -- Shower/Thunderstorm Potential Friday -- Moisture and lift associated with the mid-level vorticity/trough out of Texas will initially bring in clouds around 10,000 feet with virga Friday morning. Increasing sfc-850 troughing and convergence by afternoon over southern MI along with late-arriving low-level moisture should then promote surface-based convection to about 15,000 feet according to CAM forecast soundings. Convective updrafts like these that are warmer than -10 C would usually struggle to produce significant rain or lightning potential, though in this case, the shallow convective updrafts would be seeded by ice from the stratiform clouds above 15,000 ft.
This will result in east coast temperatures being a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but the west coast will see similar temperatures in the 90s to yesterday. (Today through Friday) After numerous days of sunny skies and warm temperatures, the upper-level ridge will begin to break down and shift the weather pattern across South Florida as we finish up the work week. Tomorrow's high temperatures will be around 1 to 2 degrees cooler.
1027 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide mostly dry weather and warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Temperatures aloft are much warmer than yesterday, so highs will be able to reach the low to mid 70s in most spots. Dry weather elsewhere as expansive high pressure remains centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with southerly return flow circulation maintaining the warming trend. Temperatures will only dip into the low to mid 50s across the Lake Plains, with upper 40s across the higher terrain areas. Temperatures at 850mb will rise to around +12C across the eastern Great Lakes region, which will support high temperatures in the low 80s across inland areas. A moisture starved cold front will drop southward across the region Friday evening.
615 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023 Today through tonight: Isolated severe storms will be possible today as global guidance continue to highlight a low pressure system, enhanced by a mesoscale convective vortex, slowly shifting northeastward across portions of northern Mississippi. The severe potential should begin to decrease by tonight as subtropical ridging builds from the ENE.
However, the low will be slow mover and will continue sending moisture back into the area, keeping the chance of showers and thunderstorm in the forecast. With more cloud cover, most areas will average around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. And in the higher elevations, there could be some accumulating snow. The low will continue to move eastward on Friday, and as a result the chances of showers should continue to decrease. Thursday and Friday look cooler and wetter, especially East of the Continental Divide.
524 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023 08z surface analysis had low over CO with inverted trough into western SD. Effect of upper low main forecast concern this morning.
627 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
Models are in pretty good agreement as to the track of this low in the next couple days. Rain is expected to continue through the end of the period as the low continues to track across NE, but no severe storms are forecast for Friday at this time. As mentioned previously, temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler today. Friday, temperatures will be even cooler with highs struggling to reach the mid 70s in many areas.
Pattern aloft typical of May patterns with active southern stream and upper low stuck in the middle over central plains between northern and southern streams. Positively-tilted upper trough and ridge pattern also seen over the central and eastern CONUS with ridge axis extending from northern plains into the OH valley and Georgia. To the west of ridge axis, warm advection has been successful at initiating and focusing convection over AL and western GA last two days.
508 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide mostly dry weather and warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Temperatures aloft are much warmer than yesterday, so highs will be able to reach the low to mid 70s in most spots. Dry weather elsewhere as expansive high pressure remains centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with southerly return flow circulation maintaining the warming trend. Temperatures will only dip into the low to mid 50s across the Lake Plains, with upper 40s across the higher terrain areas. Temperatures at 850mb will rise to around +12C across the eastern Great Lakes region, which will support high temperatures in the low 80s across inland areas. A moisture starved cold front will drop southward across the region Friday evening.
Meanwhile to the west, an arcing band of strong to severe storms is forecast to develop over southwest NE into western KS, ahead of the deep-layer cyclone moving into the central High Plains. A belt of stronger mid/upper-level winds and attending steep, midlevel lapse rate plume immediately east of the low center will overspread a moist warm sector, enhancing vertical shear and potential instability by afternoon.
Look for these sunny skies and light easterly winds to lead to afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s area wide.
Upper level ridging will remain in control through at least this evening with highs climbing into the upr 70s to low 80s and little more than some high clouds.
Otherwise, while a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday, high temperatures today will still reach into the upper-70's to low-80's. The ridging that begins to develop Friday strengthens with the center of a high pressure system just to our south. Still though, moisture undercutting this high will allow for these storms.
Today into tonight a negatively-tilted upper level trough will move from the Four Corners region into the western High Plains. The aforementioned upper level trough on Friday morning will reside near the western Nebraska/Kansas border and will move slowly northeastward through the day into central Nebraska. A cold front associated with this system will extend from southern Nebraska southeastward into eastern Kansas.
500 mb ridging occurs northeast of this upper low into E ND and NW MN today into Friday.
High temperatures will climb into the low 80s. Discussion: A midlevel ridge axis is over the area this morning, and showers on the western side of the ridge have been dissipating as they reach our southwestern counties. Through today, the ridge axis will be shifting to the northeast, allowing for deeper moisture to spread into the area. The forecast will have a low to slight chance PoP that favors southern and western sections, and the higher terrain of the Smokies.
715 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 (Today through Friday) After numerous days of sunny skies and warm temperatures, the upper-level ridge will begin to break down and shift the weather pattern across South Florida as we finish up the work week. Tomorrow's high temperatures will be around 1 to 2 degrees cooler.
553 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
502 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023 Today through tonight: Isolated severe storms will be possible today as global guidance continue to highlight a low pressure system, enhanced by a mesoscale convective vortex, slowly shifting northeastward across portions of northern Mississippi. The severe potential should begin to decrease by tonight as subtropical ridging builds from the ENE.
Minimal changes to the forecast reasoning this morning as high pressure ridging builds in, allowing for a heating trend through the beginning of the weekend to occur.
645 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023 (Today through Friday) A weakening upper level low is rotating from northwest Texas, into the Mid Mississippi River Valley this morning. This wave will open, ahead of a stronger low crossing the Rockies, shift eastward, and put a slight dent in the persistent upper level ridge across much of the Eastern CONUS. A weak wave rotating around the low just to our west and boundary layer collisions have allowed for continued isolated shower and thunderstorms develop overnight. As the now open trough moves across the Mississippi River today and then the Tennessee Valley tomorrow, expect scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop.
1037 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather through the end of the week.
645 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 Deep column ridging will maintain VFR conditions throughout the period. Early summerlike day today as lower MI remains firmly under the influence of eastern CONUS upper level ridging. Steady albeit weak southwesterly flow through the lowest ~250mb in combination with mostly sunny skies supports highs well above average in the upper 70s to low 80s.
931 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure will provide warm and dry weather for most of the region today. Increasing chances for showers and storms expected overnight into Friday ahead of warm front. There will be a sharp gradient in dewpoint values across our fa today, with locations near/south of the Tristate observing dewpoints in the lower 60s, whereas our central and west-central OH counties remain in the middle to upper 40s. There will be some increasing mid level clouds from the south today ahead of an advancing warm frontal boundary. Expect scattered showers with northward advancing warm front. Milder temperatures to be observed tonight with lows from the upper 50s northeast to the lower 60s southwest. Will allow pops to increase to categorical across the northwest to north counties along warm front and ahead of a weak surface wave.
A warm front and decreasing clouds will result in warmer temperatures into the mid to upper 70s over the southwestern CWA into early evening. Friday into Friday night: Much warmer conditions are expected with highs in the low to mid 80s (perhaps warmer is cloud cover is less). Upper ridge should build back into the area with best area of upper energy located over the central and southern plains.
234 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 High pressure centered far off the NC coast will linger offshore through the end of the week. A cold front and low pressure could lead to more unsettled weather through the first half of the upcoming week. High pressure has become situated far off the NC coast, and the overall pattern will not change much through Friday. Onshore flow will keep high temperatures cooler along the coastal areas while highs along/west of I-95 are expected to reach the mid 80s. Mid level ridge holding on paired with diurnal instability minimum keeps the area rain-free Friday night.