Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A deep layer mean anticyclone centered between the Bahamas and South Florida is the primary influencer of Florida Keys weather early this morning. For today and tonight, the deep layer mean anticyclone will shift rather quickly northwestward as a midlatitude trough digs southward over the Atlantic between the Carolinas and the Bahamas. Another southward-migrating short- wave trough on the eastern flank of the anticyclone likely will cut off around the Carolina coastline and keep broad anticyclonic low from the South Atlantic Bight to Cuba. An expanding high pressure system will develop across the Eastern United States today and tonight, while the remnants of Idalia stall near Bermuda.
636 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Broad high pressure dominates over the eastern US today through Saturday.
641 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Dry weather is expected through the holiday weekend courtesy of building high pressure. Some of the mountain valleys will get down into the low to mid 40s. High pressure remains in control throughout Friday and Friday night, providing for continued dry weather. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s across the lowlands, with upper 60s and 70s for the higher terrain. Low temperatures will be a bit warmer than this morning, with low 50s to low 60s for the lowlands, and mid 40s to mid 50s for the higher terrain.
716 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 A weak upper-level low over the Lower Mississippi Valley will bring a chance for rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to the Mid-South this weekend.
Upper-level ridging prevails across the Treasure State next few days, keeping most locations mostly sunny and warm with some isolated showers and thunderstorms developing in Southwest Montana.
Dry and mostly sunny conditions will continue today as high pressure dominates the region. A SE flow across GA/AL between the high and the low pressure system over LA will spread some high clouds over southern sections today and tonight, but this should not have a significant impact on temperatures. Highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 80s today. Pattern-wise, the upper low supporting the front to our south will eventually be overtaken by the high pressure ridge spreading east and moving over top of it. This will help funnel warmer temperatures our way in the coming days. So, today will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
553 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 High pressure in the Great Lakes will move southeast and settle in the Mid Atlantic through Saturday.
Sub-tropical moisture will continue to stream northward into Arizona today, interacting with a trough to our northwest. The only difference is that the airmass over Arizona is now substantially cooler, which will lead to more light and stratiform precipitation, instead of deep convection. Nonetheless, the colder air aloft and dynamics of the trough to our west will allow for some stronger convection as Friday wears on, especially over western Arizona and out to the east, which has not been worked over yet.
Low pressure sliding down the coast from the Pacific Northwest will bring continued cooling into the weekend. (Today and tonight) Upper troughing deepens along the West Coast as an accompanying cold front continues its southward progression through the Bay Area and Central Coast. Area profilers place the marine layer depth at 1,500 to 2,000+ feet along the coast, with some inland disruption occurring as the cold front passes through. Thereafter we'll see small chances for instability showers this afternoon and tonight as lapse rates steepen with the upper trough overhead.
557 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 (Today and tonight) The above average temperature trend will continue today under the influence of the upper level ridge. Expect afternoon temperatures to be very similar to yesterday, but 1-3 degrees warmer from I-35 westward as the thermal ridge continues to amplify there. Dewpoints will drop slightly tonight from central to eastern OK so would expect overnight lows Saturday morning to be a few degrees cooler there.
647 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 (Today through Saturday) The short term period will feature hot and mostly rain-free conditions as Deep South Texas remains on the subsident side of a cut-off low centered over the western Gulf of Mexico.
(Today through Saturday) 500mb analysis shows the CWA sandwiched under a ridge that is situated between an upper low to the west and a longwave trough to the east. The longwave trough to the east will begin to shift off to the east later today, but the upper low to the west will remain nearly stationary. A high pressure ridge is off to the NE. This ridge will build down into the area tonight, bringing lower dewpoints to much of north and central GA. Along and south of the front is where the deepest moisture resides, so that is where the highest pops will be today. The front may try and creep a little northward this afternoon before being pushed back south by the advancing ridge. The highest pops/instability will be south of I-20 today.
As a closed low pressure system digs southward along the west coast today, high pressure will strengthen over western Montana and north central Idaho.
1050 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 High pressure will keep conditions dry throughout the Labor Day weekend. High pressure currently centered over Pennsylvania should maintain control across the Mid Atlantic throughout today and Saturday. The cooler temperatures this morning reflected this considerably dry air with 50s for most locations and Burkes Garden observing a low of 44 degrees. It should get a little warmer by Saturday afternoon compared to today with highs reaching the mid 80s in the Piedmont and mid to upper 70s in the mountains.
As an upper trough digs south over the west coast, the high pressure that's been settled over our region the last few days will continue to push to the northeast. Looking at the heat, high temperatures will be near or just over 100 over most of the eastern plains, while the higher terrain sits in the mid-80s to low-90s. While a bit more aggressive than yesterday, guidance still isn't overly enthusiastic about coverage, but precipitation can be expected over parts of the Continental Divide and the higher peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Additionally, the southwesterly steering flow at the mid-levels could potentially push a shower or two off of the mountains and onto I-25, but overall very few of the high-res models show this happening, so the confidence in that is not very high.
A southwest low-level wind component persists across our southeast zones, basically along and east of the Prairie Coteau's ridgeline so much so that gusty winds upwards of 25-35 mph continue early this morning. As the center of an upper level high builds and establishes itself across the Central Plains today, increasing heights across our region should lead to mainly dry conditions and warming temperatures. 500mb heights will continue to rise tomorrow as the thermal ridge translates more into our area.
RH values across these areas are expected to fall into the lower 30th to upper 20th percentile this afternoon. Saturday, temperatures will continue to trend upwards over the Srn Cntrl US as upper ridging begins to amplify over the Cntrl third of the CONUS, once again.
A surface front remains draped along the Central Gulf Coast while an inverted trough extends from the low pressure area northward into our portion of the state. The wet microburst risk is low today and the potential for gusty winds with the heavier activity will primarily exist across the north-central counties now through early afternoon, then the risk should diminish as the remaining dry layer from around 720 mb aloft to near 550 mb evident on the 01/12z sounding is overcome by deep layer moisture that is evident on TLH/LIX/JAN 01/12z soundings and also depicted in forecast model soundings, resulting from continued southerly flow throughout the low and mid levels. 05 Previous Modified short-term discussion: (Today through Saturday) A low pressure system is developing along the coast and will slide north and west today and into Saturday.
Coverage should decrease tonight as the driving forces in the placement of the moisture plume, an upper level low over northern California and a ridge over the southeast, retrograde just a bit.
614 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper-level ridge remains centered over the central Plains and extends southwestward across west Texas this morning. This should allow low temperatures to be a few degrees warmer tonight.
618 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 (Today through Saturday) A low pressure system is developing along the coast and will slide north and west today and into Saturday.
(Rest of Today) The Tennessee Valley remains on the western edge of an area of high pressure, while to our west a weak area of low pressure is meandering along the MS/LA coast and the lower Mississippi Valley. Otherwise, expect a more humid day under a partly to mostly cloudy sky -- with highs peaking in the low to mid 80s.
The center of the 500 mb ridge will be centered over KS today, with a weak southwesterly flow over CO.
(Today and tonight) The above average temperature trend will continue today under the influence of the upper level ridge. Expect afternoon temperatures to be very similar to yesterday, but 1-3 degrees warmer from I-35 westward as the thermal ridge continues to amplify there. Dewpoints will drop slightly tonight from central to eastern OK so would expect overnight lows Saturday morning to be a few degrees cooler there.
630 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Canadian high pressure will extend across the middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Saturday. There were a few high clouds associated with an upper level disturbance to our SW and a few stratocumulus over the higher terrain with the upslope flow early this morning - otherwise it was clear and cool. High pressure will dominate today and tonight. High pressure will continue to dominate across the domain through the weekend.
935 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Canadian high pressure will extend across the middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Saturday. Surface analysis shows cool high pressure extending into the area from the northern Mid- Atlantic. Surface dewpoints currently in the upper 50s to low 60s will mix out into the low to mid 50s over the Piedmont mid/upper 50s over the Coastal Plain, making a very comfortable afternoon. We lowered lows a few degrees in the cooler spots given favorable radiational cooling. High pressure will continue to dominate across the domain through the weekend.
High temperatures will be cooler than normal today and Saturday.
535 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Large high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes today will move to the east coast by tonight. Superb weather to kick off the first day of September across the eastern Great Lakes as a strong, expansive mid-level ridge drifts across the region. Not quite as chilly with lows in the mid 50s for most and upper 40s across the hilltops as weak southerly flow developing on the backside of the high begins to advect warmer air into the region. Saturday and Saturday night a mid level trough will move east across Ontario and Quebec, with the southern end of the trough brushing by the eastern Great Lakes late Saturday afternoon and evening. Several convectively enhanced vorticity maxima may move through the trough as well, bringing a period of large scale ascent Saturday evening.
A few low-lying spots across the Hill Country may drop into the lower 60s given light winds and lower dewpoints in the mentioned area.
651 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Large high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes today will move to the east coast by tonight. Superb weather to kick off the first day of September across the eastern Great Lakes as a strong, expansive mid-level ridge drifts across the region. Not quite as chilly with lows in the mid 50s for most and upper 40s across the hilltops as weak southerly flow developing on the backside of the high begins to advect warmer air into the region. Saturday and Saturday night a mid level trough will move east across Ontario and Quebec, with the southern end of the trough brushing by the eastern Great Lakes late Saturday afternoon and evening. Several convectively enhanced vorticity maxima may move through the trough as well, bringing a period of large scale ascent Saturday evening.
Clouds are limited to mid and high varieties on the fringe of northern Ontario low pressure late tonight into Saturday morning. A cool start to September this morning as temperatures hover 5 to 10 degrees below average in the low 50s (slightly higher near Detroit), owing to exceptional radiational cooling conditions under clear skies overnight. Will see temperatures climb quickly this morning under abundant sunshine, although daytime highs will still hold in the 70s as the thermal trough lingers for one last day. Benign local conditions are tied to high pressure that has begun drifting east and will strengthen today as it phases with the ridge axis aloft. The resultant flow aloft becomes predominantly zonal with southwest winds at the surface, together drawing in a much warmer airmass that is pooling upstream.
High pressure dominates at the sfc today with ridging building aloft. Temperatures will be warmer today as we kick off a warming trend heading into the holiday weekend. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s today with mostly clear skies and light winds. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s as ridging continues to build aloft.
609 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 (Today and tonight) Temperatures today will be above average again as upper level high pressure remains overhead with forecast highs in the low to mid 90s on the Caprock and near 100 degrees off the Caprock. Forecast highs today are nearly the same or a bit warmer compared to yesterday due to a slight increase in upper air heights as the center of the upper level high drifts northeast.
926 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Another stellar day on the docket as the region remains under the influence of a high pressure ridge with deep subsidence. Mainly clear skies are expected with temperatures this afternoon recovering into the low and mid 80s for much of the forecast area as surface flow veers around to the E/SE. This will bring in much warmer temperatures than yesterday along along with gradual higher humidity.
1022 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Large high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move to the east coast by tonight. September will get off to a gorgeous start today as strong ridging at all levels sits squarely overhead. Initially clear skies will give way to gradually increasing high clouds out ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. With a weak southerly flow developing on the backside of the departing ridge it won't be quite as chilly as the previous couple of nights. Saturday and Saturday night a mid level trough will move east across Ontario and Quebec, with the southern end of the trough brushing by the eastern Great Lakes late Saturday afternoon and evening. Several convectively enhanced vorticity maxima may move through the trough as well, bringing a period of large scale ascent Saturday evening.
602 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Dry weather is expected through the holiday weekend courtesy of building high pressure. Some of the mountain valleys will get down into the low to mid 40s. High pressure remains in control throughout Friday and Friday night, providing for continued dry weather. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s across the lowlands, with upper 60s and 70s for the higher terrain. Low temperatures will be a bit warmer than this morning, with low 50s to low 60s for the lowlands, and mid 40s to mid 50s for the higher terrain.
1251 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 A weak upper-level low over the Lower Mississippi Valley will bring a chance for rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to the Mid-South this weekend.
1029 AM PDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Low pressure sliding down the coast from the Pacific Northwest will bring continued cooling into the weekend. (Today and tonight) Upper troughing deepens along the West Coast as an accompanying cold front continues its southward progression through the Bay Area and Central Coast. Area profilers place the marine layer depth at 1,500 to 2,000+ feet along the coast, with some inland disruption occurring as the cold front passes through. Thereafter we'll see small chances for instability showers this afternoon and tonight as lapse rates steepen with the upper trough overhead.
1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 (Today and tonight) Temperatures today will be above average again as upper level high pressure remains overhead with forecast highs in the low to mid 90s on the Caprock and near 100 degrees off the Caprock. Forecast highs today are nearly the same or a bit warmer compared to yesterday due to a slight increase in upper air heights as the center of the upper level high drifts northeast.
1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 High pressure will keep conditions dry throughout the Labor Day weekend. High pressure currently centered over Pennsylvania should maintain control across the Mid Atlantic through Saturday. The cooler temperatures this morning reflected this considerably dry air with 50s observed for most locations and Burkes Garden recording a low of 44 degrees. It will get a little warmer by Saturday afternoon compared to today with highs reaching the mid 80s in the Piedmont and mid to upper 70s in the mountains. The dry weather will persist through the remainder of the Labor day weekend as high pressure remains in firm control across the Appalachian Mountains. Temperatures will continue to increase each passing day due to an upper level ridge building eastward from the Plains.
1250 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 (Rest of Today) The Tennessee Valley remains on the western edge of an area of high pressure, while to our west a weak area of low pressure is meandering along the MS/LA coast and the lower Mississippi Valley. Otherwise, expect a more humid day under a partly to mostly cloudy sky -- with highs peaking in the low to mid 80s.
/DL/ This weekend, an upper level low will continue to hang over the LA/TX state line, bring southerly flow and also some well needed moisture to the region.
Strong dynamical system across the region as an upper low digs south across CA with a moist southerly flow entrenched across the region with precipitable waters from 1. Given the high moisture content, flash flooding will likely be the main threat, but localized strong and damaging winds are also possible.
/Tonight through Friday/ Take Home Points: * Warmup begins today, hot through the Labor Day Holiday Weekend * Dry through at least Labor Day, scattered chances beyond * Temperatures to ease some by mid-week Discussion: With the Labor Day Holiday Weekend here, the main forecast story/concern remains the heat that has begun to build in on the heels of southerly winds and building upper level ridging.
Upper ridging will nudge into the area, with an upper low over California, for warmer conditions into Saturday.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over northwest Oklahoma, and is forecast to remain more or less in place over the next 24 hours. Temperatures this afternoon will top out ~ 8-10F above normal, and be about the same or a skosh cooler Saturday afternoon, with most locations remaining in the double digits.
213 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Dry high pressure will continue to build across the region through the weekend and into the next work week.
1219 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 (Today through Saturday) The short term period will feature hot and mostly rain-free conditions as Deep South Texas remains on the subsident side of a cut-off low centered over the western Gulf of Mexico.
332 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 A ridge affects our region through the middle of the upcoming week. Simultaneously, the core of this ridge should shift from the northeastern United States to the southern Appalachians. At the surface, the ridge continues influencing our region as the parent high pressure center migrates from the northeastern U. Saturday night will be noticeably warmer and muggier. 850mb temperatures into the lower 20s brings low to mid 90s west, upper 80s to low 90s east.
145 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 High pressure will keep conditions dry throughout the Labor Day weekend. High pressure currently centered over Pennsylvania should maintain control across the Mid Atlantic through Saturday. The cooler temperatures this morning reflected this considerably dry air with 50s observed for most locations and Burkes Garden recording a low of 44 degrees. It will get a little warmer by Saturday afternoon compared to today with highs reaching the mid 80s in the Piedmont and mid to upper 70s in the mountains. The dry weather will persist through the remainder of the Labor day weekend as high pressure remains in firm control across the Appalachian Mountains. Temperatures will continue to increase each passing day due to an upper level ridge building eastward from the Plains.
The period starts off with a broad mid level ridge across the CONUS, but with an upper trof near the west coast. The ridge will provide for mainly dry conditions this weekend. However, almost all guidance (deterministic/ensemble) takes that upper trof and ejects it across the Northern Plains Mon-Tue night time frame, with the ECMWF being the slowest of the solutions. This area is where MLCAPEs are the highest due to LL moisture convergence/pooling.
Despite very dry air above 850 mb, a broken cloud line was able to form along portions of the Lower Keys earlier this afternoon owed to mesoscale confluence driven by island heating and light steering flow.
338 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Low to mid level ridging marking conditions late this afternoon. Standard nocturnal cooling environment early tonight as lingering surface ridging affords a respectable window for radiational cooling, likely providing a MinT late this evening before flow veers to south/southwest upon warm frontal approach after midnight. Warm frontal boundary lifts across the area Saturday. Moisture quality still appears too lean across the lowest 700 mb to offer better shower potential, but cannot rule out a brief shower or sprinkles. Sprawling large scale upper ridge featured throughout much of the central/southern conus remains forecast to build northeast with time over the next several days.
(This evening through Saturday) Upper-level ridging has settled into West Central Texas and will continue to provide hot, dry, and calm conditions across our area into Saturday.
Left over tropical moisture from Idalia coupled with moisture from a low pressure system near Louisiana, will keep PoPs elevated today and tomorrow.
The highest PoPs continue to be focused over these locations, though many locations west of Interstate 95 are included in the likely PoP category through mid afternoon. Boating conditions will become poor to hazardous this afternoon, especially offshore, as swells generated from Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia build into the local Atlantic.
154 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Quiet weather continues through Saturday as high pressure keeps us relatively dry, save for a few showers and thunderstorms across Southwestern Montana.
251 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 The main story for the holiday weekend continues to be the return to some hot temperatures as a 594+ dam 500 mb ridge expands into the Lower Great Lakes region.
(Now through Saturday) We had to see it to believe it but it is indeed raining across the area this afternoon! A unsettled pattern will continue this afternoon and into the day on Saturday as we remain sandwiched between an upper low to our west and a area of high pressure to our east. Some locations on Saturday may not make it out of the upper 70s with most of the area in the low to mid 80s. Lows will remain muggy with lows in the low 70s given the increased moisture.
224 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2023 The strong low over the Pacific Northwest will slowly shift south down the west coast while the broad ridge over the Midwest and Southeast will stay about in place. Overnight low temperatures are forecast generally 5 to 10 F warmer than normal across most of the area. Expect more isolated showers and storms across the high country in the afternoon and evening, precipitation should be light, and there may be some modest outflow gusts.
A trough continues to slowly move south along the Northern CA coast.