Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
714 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will provide us one more sunny, warm day today before it shifts eastward, making way for a low pressure system to track close to the forecast area this weekend. Temperatures are anticipated to rise into the lower 70s today, one last sunny day before clouds increase. The high pressure that has been bringing sunny, warm days and foggy, chilly nights will begin to progress eastward today, but not before bringing us highs today in the lower to mid 70s and mostly sunny skies.
This trend should continue as drier air pushes behind Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 moves away from the area.
In addition, multiple short waves ejecting from the low continue to pass over our area, which is resulting in a few areas of showers lifting through. For today, upper low makes gradual eastward progression over the Rockies, with a variety of waves lifting over our area.
549 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge across northern Mexico will continue to influence the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
The weekend will be dry and warm with weak high pressure building over the Southwest. Precipitation chances have been increased from the coast to the deserts today, with the highest chances of measurable rain in the mountains where from 0.
1022 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will provide us one more sunny, warm day today before it shifts eastward, making way for a low pressure system to track close to the forecast area this weekend. High clouds will slowly increase from the south this afternoon ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone 16, which remains off the Carolina coast. The high pressure that has been bringing sunny, warm days and foggy, chilly nights will begin to progress eastward today, but not before bringing us highs today in the lower to mid 70s and mostly sunny skies.
602 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 (Today through Saturday) A strong upper ridge remains centered to our southwest which is keeping the persistent hot temperatures in the forecast through at least the short-term period of the forecast. Our eastern counties will be on the eastern periphery of the ridge which places this area in deep southerly flow. Tonight, more low clouds can be expected which keeps lows much warmer than normal, but again just lower than records for warmest mins. Highs tomorrow should be a degree or two warmer as 850 temps slightly warm.
556 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 (Today and tonight) Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 is currently located off the southeast US coast. At the same time, high pressure is located in the northeast with a wedge of drier air down the spine of the Appalachians. Tonight, lows will fall into the low/mid 60s with clear skies.
852 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will keep the area dry and warm today. All eyes will then focus on low pressure that will slowly move on shore then over the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend.
645 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Today: RAP/water vapor/synoptic analysis this morning indicates ridge over the southern Plains while developing cold core low & Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen progged to develop near the Carolinas/Atlantic seaboard. Tonight: Ridge axis will be developing right across the Southern Plains through the Mid West. In addition, strong cold core will be moving through the Rockies, with both coincidentally amplifying that ridge. Lows will be seasonable in the northeast, especially the Golden Triangle & Hwy 82 corridors, in the low 60s while near to above normal northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor in the mid-upper 60s.
Current temperatures are cooler compared to 24 hours ago and range from the upper 30s in the colder mountain valleys to the mid 60s at the north end of the Sacramento Valley. Dry and mild weather is expected the next couple of days as the ridge moves overhead today and then shifts east on Saturday.
Dry air has filtered over the peninsula this morning on the back side of the low pressure area.
629 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) We maintain zonal mid/upper level flow with the ridge centered across northern Mexico and an upper trough across the Great Basin and northwestern US with water vapor satellite imagery showing a solid plume of Pacific moisture streaming through. While only a few lucky souls may see some rain, the real headline for today and tomorrow is the highly unseasonable heat for mid/late September fueled by a strengthening low level thermal ridge and downsloping surface winds.
519 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 (Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this morning, with high pressure to the NE of the area promoting clear/dry conditions.
620 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 (Today through Saturday) Look for a shift from easterly to more of a northerly flow today as the low in the Atlantic moves further north.
Over the higher terrain, gusty winds will also occur today with mainly dry conditions. Highs across nern CO will be in the lower to mid 80s, except over the far nern plains where readings may stay in the mid to upper 70s. Across the plains, a cold front will move across later this evening with gusty WNW winds behind it. Temperatures will be near normal through the weekend, then back above normal through the upcoming week, with highs in the lower to mid 80s for the urban corridor/plains. Gusty northwest winds will be in place on Saturday, as the upper trough passes into South Dakota. In particular, the Front Range mountains/foothills of Larimer County, the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent plains along the northern border.
Remnant convectively-augmented midlevel low over Illinois should slowly move north/northwestward on the periphery of Great Lakes ridge, influencing our area less with time. An axis of richer low- level moisture will remain west of our area, and in fact Tropical Cyclone Sixteen should trend our trajectories northeasterly and keep us dry. Through tonight, deepening cyclone in the northern Plains and associated resurgence of moisture is expected to hold to our west.
417 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Today: RAP/water vapor/synoptic analysis this morning indicates ridge over the southern Plains while developing cold core low & Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen progged to develop near the Carolinas/Atlantic seaboard. Tonight: Ridge axis will be developing right across the Southern Plains through the Mid West. In addition, strong cold core will be moving through the Rockies, with both coincidentally amplifying that ridge. Lows will be seasonable in the northeast, especially the Golden Triangle & Hwy 82 corridors, in the low 60s while near to above normal northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor in the mid-upper 60s.
1143 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge across northern Mexico will continue to influence the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
Nonetheless, high temperatures will be in the low 90s areawide. /LCP/ Today: RAP/water vapor/synoptic analysis this morning indicates ridge over the southern Plains while developing cold core low & Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen progged to develop near the Carolinas/Atlantic seaboard. Tonight: Ridge axis will be developing right across the Southern Plains through the Mid West. In addition, strong cold core will be moving through the Rockies, with both coincidentally amplifying that ridge. Lows will be seasonable in the northeast, especially the Golden Triangle & Hwy 82 corridors, in the low 60s while near to above normal northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor in the mid-upper 60s.
118 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will provide us one more sunny, warm day today before it shifts eastward, making way for a low pressure system to track close to the forecast area this weekend. Some fair weather cumulus have bubbled over the higher terrain and much of south central Vermont, which is a bit more than expected. High clouds from Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 are also spreading into southern areas. The high pressure that has been bringing sunny, warm days and foggy, chilly nights will begin to progress eastward today, but not before bringing us highs today in the lower to mid 70s and mostly sunny skies.
Directional shear just ahead of the dryline/cold front, over the Flint Hills and SE KS, suggests a few discrete supercells may develop in the warm sector, with very large hail (golfball to tennis ball size), and damaging winds (65 to 65 mph).
A deep-layer cyclone is nearing the Carolinas, while a mid to upper-level cyclone covers much of the Northwest. The cyclonic circulation along the southern extent of the cyclone near the Carolinas (PTC16) has departed South Florida and the Keys. The low level mean-layer flow measured by the KKEY RAOB is light and from the northwest. A closer examination of the low-level cloud motions suggests weak cyclonic curvature over the Straits, weak cyclonic curvature over the east- central Gulf of Mexico, and anticyclonic flow over the western Gulf.
MH (Issued 334 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023) Today and Tonight: Forecast area sits between two troughs of low pressure.
Discussion: The current synoptic pattern across the CONUS is defined by mid level ridging over the south central US, a closed low and troughing over the Intermountain West into the Rockies, and another low off the coast of the Carolinas (Tropical Storm Ophelia). Morning storms and lingering cloud cover has led to cooler temperatures today, with 3 PM temps ranging from the lower to upper 70s. The closed mid level low over the Intermountain West finally moves into central South Dakota by tomorrow afternoon with the accompanying trough ejecting out across the Plains and into the western Midwest. Our region will be within the warm sector (high temps in the mid to upper 80s, dewpoints as high as the lower 70s, and breezy southerly winds) with a pairing of moderate instability and sufficient deep layer shear to support well organized updrafts.
Chances for showers and storms are forecast to continue through the weekend ahead of an advancing upper level low. Saturday: Heading into daybreak Saturday, most guidance continues to suggest that both coverage and intensity will increase ahead of an advancing cold front.
112 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will provide us one more sunny, warm day today before it shifts eastward, making way for a low pressure system to track close to the forecast area this weekend. High clouds will slowly increase from the south this afternoon ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone 16, which remains off the Carolina coast. The high pressure that has been bringing sunny, warm days and foggy, chilly nights will begin to progress eastward today, but not before bringing us highs today in the lower to mid 70s and mostly sunny skies.
Dry and clear conditions are then expected the remainder of Saturday into late Saturday night before an additional weak trough begins to move into southwestern Wisconsin and produce scattered showers.
114 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Water vapor shows upper low redeveloping near SLC, with one ejecting wave over western SD and the next over southeast WY. At surface, elongated trof extends from southeast WY through eastern CO. Convective activity over western SD is quite tame well north of the surface trof, but activity over eastern WY is becoming intense. Another round of showers/storms (mainly non-severe) is then expected later tonight and early Saturday morning as the main upper low crosses WY and pushes into far western SD by Saturday morning. Upper low will shift into central SD by Saturday afternoon, with on and off showers and breezy northwest winds.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Midday RAP analysis depicts a 594 dm subtropical ridge centered over northern Mexico, providing a NW flow aloft over south-central TX.
The 00z HREF does hint at very isolated showers and a potential thunderstorm possible especially across northern Lower Michigan as the remnants of the upper low get washed out in the more dominant upper ridging across central and eastern Great Lakes. A positively tilted ridge over Michigan should be sandwiched between two upper level lows.
The low-pressure system currently moving through the region is shifting eastward. Moisture wrapping around the low has pushed northward, causing the primary area of rain to move into northwest Montana. Model guidance remains consistent, indicating that the low will move through Wyoming tonight, while high pressure begins to build into the Northern Rockies. Water vapor imagery shows the next trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast, which will prompt the upper flow pattern over our region to transition into a southwesterly flow.
202 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 A pleasant but warm end to the week is in store as height rises begin to occur with an upper level ridge. Meanwhile, the aformentioned ridging over the FA will mean dry and unseasonably warm conditions for Saturday as even a good portion of Saturday night now looks to remain pcpn free.
233 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Dry high pressure will continue to ridge down across the area from the north through this evening.
Luckily, winds are light through the evening and overnight period so conditions, while cooler, will not necessarily be chilly post sunset for those out after 7 PM.
Temperatures will continue to seasonal with lows in the low to mid 60s across the region. Saturday should almost be a replica of Friday with the main moisture being localized to our west due to a upper level ridge centered across the Southern Plains. High temperatures will be in the low 90s across the entire region.
Outside this late night/early morning period, skies will remain generally clear as high pressure maintains very stable conditions. The high clouds during the overnight hours has kept any fog development pretty scattered and mainly for areas that have experienced the longer break in the clouds. Dry conditions will also prevail today under the influence of high pressure. Two with closest proximity will be the low moving across northern plains and the tropical system forecast to move onshore in North Carolina Friday night. A high pressure situates between these two lows and a third area of troughing over Quebec.
(This evening through Saturday) A hot and humid afternoon across much of the area with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and mostly sunny skies.
(Tonight through Saturday night) The dominance of the mid-level ridge continues through the short term forecast period. The good news is that dry air due to the subsidence from the mid-level ridge will help reduce the heat indices and keep the region out of heat advisory conditions. Low temperatures are expected to be in the 70s with a few places in the lower 80s for tonight and tomorrow night. A weak disturbance sits off the Lower Texas Coast and could bring a stray shower or two to some of the coastal Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties, but most of the rain is expected to stay off shore, due to the mid-level ridge.
A few lingering showers and storms will come to an end tonight, as a upper level ridge builds in for the weekend an will persist through the start of the week bringing warmer temperatures and fair skies. Tonight through Saturday Upper level low is slowly making its way eastward into the inter- mountain west eventually ejecting out over the northern plains Saturday night. As the low departs lingering showers, and perhaps an isolated storm or two to develop across Eastern NV. With clearing skies tonight and Saturday, temperatures for the overnights will be rather cool, and some of our more sheltered valleys could see areas of frost and freeze conditions as lows will range in the low 30s to lower 40s. Highs will warm back into the lower 60s to low 70s Saturday afternoon as the ridging takes hold.
The strong upper low we've been watching for the last few days is currently over the Great Basin region and beginning to move east towards the Plains. Some hail and gusty winds could occur with these storms, but more importantly they would reduce the instability for mid/late afternoon storms along the cold front. If the early storms are weak or don't occur, diurnal heating, rich low-level moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates would result in 2500-3000 J/kg of ML CAPE developing ahead of the cold front.
A plume of elevated convection may develop through NE OK by early afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front, otherwise the focus for storm initiation will be the cold front approaching NE OK by mid afternoon. The effective cold front will largely be the eventual storm outflow boundary while the synoptic cold front will be slow to advance southward.
Deep layer flow turns northerly on Saturday as the local area becomes sandwiched between a trough draped over the eastern portion of the CONUS and a ridge nosing eastward out of Mexico. 07/mb (Saturday night through Friday) A dry northerly flow pattern aloft will generally prevail across the region through the weekend as ridging builds from the southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast states and also to the west of TC Ophelia that will be lifting northward across the Eastern Seaboard.
321 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Mostly fair weather prevails through Saturday night, with low probabilities for convective showers today, and then again late tonight through Saturday afternoon over eastern Kentucky as a strong cyclone moves north along the Eastern Seaboard and the region comes into the outer periphery of clouds and potential precipitation on the back side of the system. Cooler highs in the mid 70s are expected Saturday as the region comes under increasingly cooler northerly flow on the back side of the cyclone moving up the Mid-Atlantic coastline, with lows Saturday night falling more into the lower to mid 50s.
Extensive stratocu shrouds the region today which has kept temperatures from climbing much above the low 70s. The low clouds will hold back daytime heating through at least early afternoon Saturday. It appears as winds strengthen in the afternoon from the approaching trough we'll see enough mechanical mixing to break up some of the cloud cover. On the other hand, forcing along the boundary is rather strong with increasing easterly flow ahead of it and a potent, deep upper level low overspreading instability aloft. Synoptically-speaking, this is a favorable set up for a line of severe thunderstorms/QLCS along the cold front.
High pressure will then return for the start of the next work week returning dry weather to the region. should be a near perfect day with temperatures peaking in the 70s, a few upper 60s across the higher terrain. Will be a warmer night with lows dropping into the mid to upper 40s across the higher terrain and low 50s elsewhere. It will be cooler owing to the cloud cover which will keep temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. while a large area of Canadian high pressure will be centered over the Ontario-Quebec border. but from the resulting sharp cutoff between the low level Atlantic moisture being circulated back across southern New York and the notably drier air being funneled across the North Country and Lake Ontario.
The upper level pattern during the short term forecast will consist of an upper level low currently over the Intermountain west trek eastward over the Northern Plains tomorrow into tomorrow night. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will build over the Southern Plains, extending northeast to the Great Lakes region. This is due to a cold front sweeping through the area tomorrow morning. This will be short lived as winds are expected to become light and variable tomorrow night as the center of high pressure behind this front moves over the area. Highs tomorrow will reach into the low to mid 80s with lows tomorrow night ranging from around 50 degrees across west central Kansas to around 60 degrees across south central Kansas.
124 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Key Points: * Outside of a few lingering showers west of I-39 this afternoon, no impactful weather is expected through Saturday night Discussion: Combined GOES-16 and 17 water vapor satellite imagery depicts a fairly busy scene across the contiguous United States with a tropical storm (Ophelia) nearing the Carolina coasts, a decaying MCV lifting northeastward from Iowa into southern Minnesota, an active sub-tropical jet stream arcing into the Southern Plains, and a sprawling cut-off low pressure system centered over the Pacific Northwest.
(This evening through Saturday) Overall conditions will be quiet tonight and tomorrow across the region as upper ridging will still dominate. Though still present tomorrow, the upper ridge will be flatten slightly by the upper low that is expected to push across the Northern Plains. A cold front will follow behind the upper low and push southward into the Texas Panhandle by late tomorrow afternoon and approach the FA by the early evening. These winds along with upper ridging will allow temps to warm a few degrees tomorrow afternoon (low/upper 90s to low 100s).
1213 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will move south of the region later today into Saturday.
Tomorrow, temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s, slightly warmer than today with less cloud cover anticipated.
1115 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will keep the area dry and warm today. All eyes will then focus on low pressure that will slowly move on shore then over the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend.
Showers clearing out of the Snake Valley this morning as the upper low weakens and accelerates eastward.
Mid to upper level ridge centered to our WSW will continue to bring drier northwesterly flow aloft into the region. Heat index values will range into the 101-107 degF with isolated warmer readings.
An upper level low will shift further to the north, serving to bring precipitation further away from the forecast area than on Saturday.
Might want to make that pumpkin spice latte an iced one! With mid to upper level ridging remaining amplified due to an upper level low moving across the Northern Plains and another upper level low developing along the Mid-Atlantic Coast (featuring PTC Sixteen at the surface), we'll continue to have above normal temperatures going into the weekend.
Discussion: The short term will be quiet, with the only forecast items of note being how far west any showers will make it into the CWA tomorrow and also how windy it will be in the higher elevations.
The clouds should also limit widespread fog formation, with just isolated patches expected in the highly favored valley locations. Overnight lows will range from the low 40s to the low 50s.
However, a warm front/outflow boundary are across portions of the fa. Saturday: Storms Possible, Some Severe, Along with Locally Heavy Rain Models show the upper low that is over ID will continue to move east into the northern Plains on Saturday. The upper low will cause a cold front to begin to move across portions of the fa Saturday/Saturday night.
1141 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 High pressure will keep the area dry and warm today. All eyes will then focus on low pressure that will slowly move on shore then over the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend.
1204 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) We maintain zonal mid/upper level flow with the ridge centered across northern Mexico and an upper trough across the Great Basin and northwestern US with water vapor satellite imagery showing a solid plume of Pacific moisture streaming through. While only a few lucky souls may see some rain, the real headline for today and tomorrow is the highly unseasonable heat for mid/late September fueled by a strengthening low level thermal ridge and downsloping surface winds.
Tonight and Saturday An upper trough will lift across the western half of Wisconsin tonight and early Saturday. Some marine fog could drift across northern Door county tonight as dewpoints in the low to mid 60s move over cool lake water. Showers and scattered thunderstorms over central and northcentral Wisconsin will diminish around midday as the upper trough lifts north of the area.
No impacts expected for north and central Georgia Forecast: Upper level trough remains located over the CWA today and tomorrow.