Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain throughout the day as we continue to be affected by this low pressure system to our south. 5 inches of QPF look to be around 30 - 60%, with the highest chances being closer to the SD border and along and south of I-94. Sunday, the trough finally picks up this system and pushes it east of our area, ceasing the showers and thunderstorms.
Overall a broad ridge dominates, with the typical late transition season storm track not even in the picture.
A ridge of high pressure extending up into western Canada will provide above normal temperatures for our region through the weekend. Winds will become south- southwest Sunday gusting 15-25 mph in response to a low pressure system lifting over northern Nevada. This upper low extended from southwest Wyoming across Utah into Arizona this morning and recent satellite loops showed clouds with bases around 15 kft MSL over Utah and northern ARizona were expanding slowly westward. Model ensembles continue to indicate the upper low will undergo cyclogenesis as it enhances over northern Utah and retrogrades across northern Nevada toward the Pacific Northwest tonight and Sunday.
348 AM MDT Sat May 13 2023 Blocking pattern across western North America will yield an unusual weather pattern for the next few days. There are still two more features to watch under the ridge that is parked over southwest Canada. One is a closed low over the Great Basin, which will strengthen over the next 24 hours, but track westward. The third one, which will affect the region tonight and more so on Sunday is a trough over west Texas and New Mexico. Ahead of this system over the Central Rockies, will be weak ridging today. There will be enough moisture trapped under the ridging for mostly cloudy skies today, but not enough lift or instability for much, if any precipitation over eastern Colorado. The higher terrain, mainly south of I-70, will be slightly unstable (CAPE up to 200 J/kg).
Broad low level ridging has fractured into two cells. One remains across the western Atlantic, while the other is situated across GA/AL with an inverted trough between the two features.
Ridging aloft will strengthen across the region today. This will result in a warmer day across the forecast area as highs climb into the lower 90s nearly areawide. High pressure at the surface centered east of the region, will help to maintain the humid conditions across the forecast area as dew points remain in the 60s. This is due to the aforementioned building ridge, in addition to a worked over atmosphere. This high pressure will continue to funnel moisture beneath the upper ridge with statistically significant PWATs of 1. The position of the high Sunday will be rather subsident and should suppress cloud cover, allowing for stronger surface heating with highs in the 90s which will be sufficient to initiate storms.
509 AM MDT Sat May 13 2023 An unusual upper pattern is in place across the western CONUS, with an upper low retrograding from the Rockies to the Great Basin and a ridge riding over the top of it into western Canada. Meanwhile, a weak trough is stagnating over the Texas panhandle as it moves around a weak ridge over the southeastern CONUS. The local area is seeing high clouds streaming in from the trough to the south as well as low clouds from the north around the old upper low. Those chances spread into the remainder of the area on Sunday, as the upper trough from the south and a weak system from the north combine with low level upslope flow for weak lift.
Visible satellite imagery shows several updrafts struggling to be sustained as upper level ridging and subsidence intensifies over our area.
During the afternoon, WI was sandwiched in between a low pressure system over eastern SD and eastern NE, and a low pressure system over Quebec. Meanwhile, dry air from a nearby high pressure system to the north kept dry conditions and mostly sunny skies in far northern WI. However, as the low pressure system to the west gradually slides southeast, another band of mid-level f-gen will move over southwestern WI by early Sunday morning. As the low pressure system continues to shift southeast, high pressure, paired with plenty of dry air, will drop south into northern WI.
352 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023 High pressure centered far off the North Carolina coast remains offshore tonight. A cold front will then drop through the area Sunday followed by some upper disturbances keeping it unsettled at times through at least mid week. Latest surface analysis continues to show broad high pressure well offshore, the backside of which extends into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, upper ridging over the Deep South puts the area in northwesterly flow, generally keeping a dry atmosphere aloft. Forecast should stay dry through this evening, with the upper ridge moving slowly eastward. Later tonight, a cold front drops down the eastern seaboard, nearing the northern periphery of the area by sunrise Sunday morning. Highs in the low-to-mid 80s.
The increased insolation will also allow max temps to climb a few degrees with highs generally around 90 to the lower 90s.
Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas rain sandwiched between upper level ridging to the east and a slow moving upper low placed over western Texas and drifting northward. some lingering showers with a few rumbles of thunder will continue to be possible overnight within the broad, moist southerly flow Bowlan (Sunday through Saturday) Moist southerly flow will continue on Sunday as the upper low continues to slowly lift north into the Central Plains Region.
436 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023 A cold front pushes south this evening through tonight with showers and storms likely.
Upper low which brought the widespread heavy rain has shifted to far eastern SD/western MN and is filling in. Upper level high pressure is over Pacific NW while another low over the Great Basin is bringing more moisture northward along the eastern edge of the Rockies. The forecast area will dry out briefly before showers and thunderstorms return Tue aftn-Thur mrng as the next system approaches with a lee trof over eastern MT-WY serves as an additional lifting mechanism.
359 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023 High pressure will start to build into the area tonight and persist through the early part of the week.
Location of clouds/rain resulting in an upside down day for temps with warmer/above normal readings in the norther and cooler/below normal temps across the southern tier. Noticeably cooler across the northern tier with max -10F colder vs.
In spite of the warm and humid conditions, a building ridge overhead has helped limit convective development. After 10 PM CDT, much of tonight will be quiet as the ridge continues to hold over the region.
A warm front brings a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, mainly south of US 30 Sunday, especially in the afternoon hours. At least low convective chances for Sunday, mainly late afternoon/evening as east-west trough axis emanating from Canadian Maritime vortex drops south through Great Lakes. Vertical motion, at least in mid levels, enhanced by right rear quadrant of upper level jet pressing south through the Lower Great Lakes. Final scour of mid level moisture Sunday night with passage of aforementioned trough.
Models keep southerly flow aloft over the CWA tonight and Sunday with upper ridging well northerly over the CWA and neutral synoptic scale energy in place. In the lower levels there is north to easterly winds for much of the CWA tonight and Sunday.
The showers will continue to sag slowly south, with clouds and cooler readings in that area throughout the day. Should see a continued decrease in shower activity as upper low over Neb/SD starts to wash out. Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain throughout the day as we continue to be affected by this low pressure system to our south. 5 inches of QPF look to be around 30 - 60%, with the highest chances being closer to the SD border and along and south of I-94. Sunday, the trough finally picks up this system and pushes it east of our area, ceasing the showers and thunderstorms.
1251 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper low is currently strengthening near the Guadalupe mountains. Temperatures will struggle to climb out of the low 60s on the Caprock today with the rain and generally ENE winds.
122 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023 A stationary front over central Ohio will begin to move southward today as high pressure builds southward over the Great Lakes.
Its associated warm front has been the focal point for convection this afternoon as an unstable atmosphere takes advantage of increasing winds and the resultant convergence. There is no shortage of 0 to 3km instability and the low level directional shear is favorable for rotating storms as winds veer with height. This will bring cooler temperatures to the state on Sunday, as well as gusty winds along the pressure gradient between the decaying low pressure and approaching high pressure. Looking out to the beginning of the week, high pressure sets in and upper level ridging develops.
A ridge building over the western US today will be undercut by a westward moving low pressure system over the desert southwest and southern Idaho. The result will be a cutoff high pressure system to our north over western Canada and a cutoff low to our south. A ridge building over the region today will keep flying conditions VFR at area terminals with some weak showers developing this afternoon. The ridge will transition to a cutoff high pressure system north of the region and a cutoff low pressure system south of the region tonight.
A strengthening ridge is resulting in a continuing warming trend across our area with temperatures currently running 6-8 DEG F above yday at this time. Another concern for Sunday is an upper low over the Great Basin which is expected to retrograde westward slightly on Sunday which might provide for enough moisture over the Sierra Nevada for thunderstorms to develop on Sunday afternoon where lift and instability will be sufficient for convection given the ongoing warming trend.
The southern extension of this low and the meager moisture associated with it should be enough to kick off showers and a few thunderstorms in parts of Mohave and Lincoln Counties.
In addition, an upper low lifting north out of Texas could help to force scattered storms this afternoon, with best coverage focused over southern and eventually western sections of the forecast area.
Cold front stretching from near OXD to UNI continues to push southward. Low temperatures to range from the lower and middle 50s northeast to around 60 southwest. remnants of mid level low to top the ridge to our west and drop southeast in the northwest flow.
329 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023 Summary: A band of rain showers extending from the Brainerd Lake Region into southern Pine Barrens will persist into the early evening hours before a strong high pressure forces the rain to retreat south.
The cold front that passed through the region this morning is now well to our south, leaving behind a light (and in places gusty) breeze mainly out of the northwest. Lows are forecast to be in the low to upper 40s and upper 30s in the Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains, however, it is possible to get some locally lower temperatures especially in higher terrain areas with an environment conducive to decent radiational cooling. Cooler temperatures are expected for Mother's Day tomorrow, though mostly clear skies will make it a beautiful Spring day. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 60s with pockets of upper 60s in the lower Hudson Valley and upper 50s at higher elevations.
WV imagery indicates a closed upper low lifting slowly northward through the eastern Dakotas. Meanwhile, a small and fairly weak upper level low is lifting north through west Texas. Precip chances return to portions of western Kansas this evening and slowly increase into Sunday as a weak upper level low lifts north through the Texas Panhandle into extreme southwest Kansas during the period.
(This evening through Sunday) An upper level low is centered across the Permian Basin and is forecast to slowly drift north overnight. In addition, a weak cold front remain draped across the region. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
The forecast has trended drier and warmer for Sunday as better widespread support for rainfall comes to an end. With the cold front moving through, the coolest temperatures will be across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle where the front should move through early in the day while temperatures warm into the lower 80s across the southern Rolling Plains where frontal passage will be late in the period.
We are sitting under a fairly strong upper level ridge, and the 12z BNA RAOB and model soundings show a subsidence inversion at about 820 mb that the RAP/GFS etc lift out through the late afternoon giving us a rather unstable thermodynamic profile. Expect it will be just a little slower than the high-res guidance and give us another shot at some thunderstorms in the afternoon tomorrow, with the total coverage probably mediated by just how much thunder we get tonight, how much lingers into the overnight, how worked over the airmass is etc. the upper levels will have a trough off the East Coast, high pressure centered over the Deep South, and narrow ridging with moisture streaming from Texas.
(Now through Sunday) A summertime-like pattern continues through the weekend as an upper-level ridge maintains its hold over the southeast US. Subsident effects from the ridge above should keep conditions dry through the overnight hours and into Sunday morning. With ridging overhead, light winds at the surface, and muggy conditions in place, patchy fog development will be possible late tonight across portions of southeast MS, southwest AL, and the FL Panhandle. Highs on Sunday will top out in the low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the immediate coast.
Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop across the high terrain early this afternoon and is expected to continue into the early evening hours, then activity should begin to diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Training showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the higher elevations near the AZ/NM border even with the storm motion. Latest hi-res CAM guidance show storms initially forming over the higher terrain (Mogollon Rim, Kaibab Plateau, Chuska Mountains) and then gradually progressing northward through the day.
As a weak subtropical wave continues to lift northward out of Texas this afternoon, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop within a weak trough and surface convergence zone across southern into central Oklahoma.
Discussion: High pressure remains to our south and our region remains on the northern periphery of the high with weak northwest flow aloft. The biggest impact, if it occurs, will be the high clouds associated with this complex. High clouds would likely affect/delay any Sunday afternoon convection due to cooler temperatures in place which would result in lower instability.
346 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023 (Issued 345 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023) Tonight through Sunday: The narrow axis of light rain diminished for most parts late in the morning, but now is blossoming in a new area stretching from The closed upper low is currently over the MN/SD border, but will weaken overnight. Areas toward Sheboygan should remain dry, and areas near Lake Michigan have a lower chance of the steady rain as well due to drier air in the low levels. Highs in the lower 70s will feel nice.
Cooler profile entrenched throughout Sunday, conditions still defined by a modestly gusty northeast wind as high pressure to the north holds beneath existing mid level northwest flow.
On the synoptic scale, broad upper level ridge from the Gulf coast into the Mississippi River Valley with weakening stacked trough across northwest Iowa. As the remnants of the upper trough slide south in tandem with the short wave, could see additional showers and storms develop on Sunday.
1001 AM PDT Sat May 13 2023 High pressure will bring sunny and warm weather to the Inland Northwest this weekend, with gusty east winds both days.
215 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023 A warm front is draped from central Indiana into central Iowa and into a weakening low pressure system now crossing the border from Nebraska to Iowa. Thinning clouds are allowing for temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s, and humidity levels are for the most part comfortable except near the warm front in central Illinois.
231 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023 Low pressure continues to spin through the northern Plains, centered around northeast Nebraska as of 2PM. Moist inflow to the east of the broader trough axis has led to maximized low level moisture across our area today. A cold front currently draped across northern Illinois will push southward through our area on Sunday. We'll see a cooler, drier air mass moving in behind the front so temperatures actually drop into the 50s for the first time in several days.
255 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023 Low pressure will continue to weaken while the upper low pivots to the west, with shower coverage/intensity diminishing slowly through the rest of the today/tonight period. Otherwise, a fetch from high pressure to the northeast will help dry us out for Sunday, with little support in BUFKIT profiles for even shallow daytime cumulus.
Additional storms chances will return Sunday evening as a cold front approaches the region.
1148 AM MDT Sat May 13 2023 An unusual upper pattern is in place across the western CONUS, with an upper low retrograding from the Rockies to the Great Basin and a ridge riding over the top of it into western Canada. Meanwhile, a weak trough is stagnating over the Texas panhandle as it moves around a weak ridge over the southeastern CONUS. The local area is seeing high clouds streaming in from the trough to the south as well as low clouds from the north around the old upper low. Those chances spread into the remainder of the area on Sunday, as the upper trough from the south and a weak system from the north combine with low level upslope flow for weak lift.
216 PM MDT Sat May 13 2023 Satellite imagery shows an unusual pattern across the region with an upper low lingering over the midwest, an elongated trof sitting from central MT to AZ, and a strengthening ridge over the PacNW and southwest Canada. Elongated upper trof from ND thru central Rockies is progged to persist through tonight. Snow levels should be 8000-9000 feet over our western mountains, so the highest peaks of the Beartooths will see wet snow accumulation (including on the Beartooth Highway above Vista Point where snow removal operations are ongoing). Mid level winds veer to the SE/S on Sunday, and heights rise slowly as upper trof moves to Oregon. Precip should taper off thru the day tomorrow as we increasingly become under the influence of a strong ridge to our north.
High pressure at the surface will remain wedged into the region from the east. Sub-tropical ridging aloft will continue to strengthen nearly directly over the forecast area through Sunday. Hot and humid conditions will persist as highs again on Sunday climb into the lower 90s areawide, after lows tonight range from the middle 60s to around 70.
An upper low centered over northern Utah this morning will move westward into northeast Nevada this afternoon. Moisture and instability on the northern periphery of the low will lead to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in southern Idaho this afternoon. An upper low over northern Nevada will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening over mainly SW Idaho. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase Sunday afternoon and evening as the low moves northwestward to S-central Oregon.
Some cumulus and showers have also started to develop over the higher terrain as we begin to destabilize. This trend looks to continue with more scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over the high terrain today.
1235 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023 (Today through Sunday Night ) An upper ridge is over the southeast U. An upper low will expand over the western U. A cold front is located in Oklahoma with showers and thunderstorms. Also, the cold front will move into Arkansas Sunday and bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows Sunday night will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
High pressure and nwly flow aloft should be dominant on Mon in the wake of the Sun trough. A deep upper-level trough over ern Canada and wrn ridging will maintain general nwly flow aloft in the Mid-Atlantic region to start the week. A pattern shift is expected mid-late week as a low digs into the nrn Rockies and shifts the midwestern ridge ewd. Light rain showers will become increasingly patchy over the next few hours as a boundary exits to the south and as weak low pressure departs.
Blocking pattern across western North America will yield an unusual weather pattern for the next few days. There are still two more features to watch under the ridge that is parked over southwest Canada. One is a closed low over the Great Basin, which will strengthen over the next 24 hours, but track westward. The third one, which will affect the region tonight and more so on Sunday is a trough over west Texas and New Mexico. Ahead of this system over the Central Rockies, will be weak ridging today. There will be enough moisture trapped under the ridging for mostly cloudy skies today, but not enough lift or instability for much, if any precipitation over eastern Colorado. The higher terrain, mainly south of I-70, will be slightly unstable (CAPE up to 200 J/kg).
Lows overnight will be in the low to mid 60s. Turning cooler on Sunday with highs in the 70s, and lows Sunday night in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Further west, an almost vertically stacked low pressure system is positioned over eastern Nebraska/western Iowa. A cold front will approach from the northwest going into Sunday, which will act to increase wind shear and push the stationary front further south. An expansive area of high pressure will build over the Plains states for the start of the new week, turning things cooler and drier.
Temperatures hovered generally around the mid 80s today with dew points in the lower 70s. Low level ridging that was sliding south along and adjacent to the eastern US shoreline is beginning to fracture into two individual anticyclones.
216 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures and continued rain showers/rumbles of thunder expected through the rest of the weekend.
A relatively cool & unsettled weather pattern will persist through the weekend as a well-pronounced Rex Block takes shape in response to a retrograding upper-level low undercutting general upper-level ridging over western North America. As such, there is not really a whole lot to speak of during the short term period, with the dirty ridge taking center stage with persistent clouds and daily chances for scattered/numerous showers across a large part of southeast WY and western NE.
1130 AM MDT Sat May 13 2023 A relatively cool & unsettled weather pattern will persist through the weekend as a well-pronounced Rex Block takes shape in response to a retrograding upper-level low undercutting general upper-level ridging over western North America. As such, there is not really a whole lot to speak of during the short term period, with the dirty ridge taking center stage with persistent clouds and daily chances for scattered/numerous showers across a large part of southeast WY and western NE.
Upper low rotating over eastern SD will slowly wash out late this afternoon into tonight, with 500mb ridging sinking down into the northwestern Plains. Bands of rain showers currently south of Highway 200, are expected to weaken as the upper low falls apart, although there is a lot of variation between the CAMs on how fast. The blocking upper ridge across Alberta and Saskatchewan extending into the Northern Plains will continue through the rest of the weekend.