Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As these trends have been slightly warmer than previously thought, did raise high temperatures by a degree or two across the vast majority of the region. Therefore, for this forecast, went ahead with patchy dense fog wording across areas already near saturation where dewpoint values are in the low to mid 60s, mainly along and south of I-30. An intensifying cyclone across the Central Plains will move northeast into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A dryline extending south from the low will intersect the previously mentioned east/west stalled frontal boundary across Oklahoma and Arkansas. This is due to southwesterly flow aloft that allows a series of disturbances to shift across the lower Great Plains.
219 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 Current satellite water vapory imagery shows the robust upper level low pressure center over northern Arizona. Any ice or snow amounts would be light for these areas, and with temperatures expected to be above freezing impacts look minimal, therefore no advisory planned at this time. Meanwhile, we will be monitoring the environment closely tomorrow afternoon where possible cold core convection could materialize just east of the upper level low pressure center.
1225 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 The warming trend will continue across the region today as high pressure remains in place over the western Atlantic. (Today through Wednesday) A gradual warming trend will materialize over South Florida, which is already apparent with current observed temperatures being about 7 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. This is primarily attributed to a short wave H500 ridge moving over the northern Gulf of Mexico and approaching South Florida, while simultaneously a weak high just north of the Bahamas becomes positioned such that winds become more onshore in nature. A negatively tilted low- level trough will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of Florida, which will allow near surface winds to become more south southwest in direction.
1246 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 Aviation - Spotty Rain Continues Today, Switch to Snow Possible This Evening Temperatures still sit comfortably above freezing as of 3am with temps ranging from the 40s to the south and down into the mid 30s to the north. Meanwhile radar continues to show spotty showers and drizzle across the area, but given the mild temps the concern for freezing rain/drizzle is low at this time. While we may still cool a few degrees within the next few hours, wet bulb temps will hold above freezing, so the outlook for freezing precip for the rest of this morning looks minimal. This low pressure system will move northeast by this evening resulting in the upper flow shifting northwesterly.
157 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 An advancing cold front will return isolated to scattered rain showers late this afternoon through late evening.
Temperatures tomorrow are cooler behind the front with most locations in the mid 50s to low 60s. Temperatures are expected to fall to near or slightly below freezing for the majority.
(This evening through Wednesday) The trough associated with a closing low over northern Arizona will lift slightly to the northeast through the remainder of today, eventually reaching southeast Colorado by early tomorrow morning. Temperatures will be right around normal but feel much cooler with the strong winds.
However the low level flow remains convergent and moist.
201 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 Regional water vapor imagery and surface observations show an occluding low pressure system centered over Green Bay, WI with sprawling cyclonic flow encompassing the entirety of the Great Lakes. Locally, all areas have already hit their high temperature for the day thanks to the early-morning passage of a cold front. Overnight lows are expected to bottom out near the freezing mark.
The messy, warm system that has brought a variety of precipitation types to the Northland will slowly exit this evening with some lingering showers - falling mainly as snow this evening as the thermal profile cools as cooler air makes its way south from Canada.
A Pacific cold front is forecast to track across the region after midnight, resulting in west winds of 10 to 15 mph. Windy and cool conditions are forecast across West Central Texas on Wednesday, behind the aforementioned cold front.
A Pacific cold front is forecast to track across the region after midnight, resulting in west winds of 10 to 15 mph. Windy and cool conditions are forecast across West Central Texas on Wednesday, behind the aforementioned cold front. (Today and tonight) We're seeing increased southwesterly flow in the upper levels ahead of the next upper trough progged to move into the area tonight and tomorrow. The aforementioned upper trough will approach the area overnight with the upper low ejecting out of the Four Corners region and into the South Central plains. A cold front will move through the after after midnight, resulting in west winds of 10 to 15 knots.
Another warm day is anticipated for Wednesday as a warm front moves northward through the midstate ahead of a powerful low pressure system developing in the Plains. Increasing gulf moisture along with strong lift ahead of an approaching 100+ kt H5 jet streak is expected to allow showers and a few thunderstorms to develop along the warm front by late Wednesday morning and especially during the afternoon as it shifts northward into Kentucky.
356 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 A passing cold front will return isolated to scattered rain showers late this afternoon through late evening.
(Through Tonight) The region is between high pressure to the southeast, and stalled frontal boundary across central GA this afternoon. The ridge will build back northwest over area Tonight, helping to erode the remainders of the frontal zone. Lows in the lower to middle 50s Tonight.
The higher risk of severe weather will focus south and east of the local forecast area. Thereafter the cold front will sweep quickly southward with gusty winds continuing overnight.
Even with the low PoPs, clouds will remain entrenched over the area with low stratus and dense fog conditions being the main forecast concern for Wednesday morning. Increasing PoPs are expected by Wednesday afternoon as next low pressure system lifts across the central CONUS and pulls a cold front through the deep South.
Chambers Weak flow aloft and abundant moisture in the lower levels has led to areas of dense fog and light snow snow or flurries over central and eastern areas early this morning. Fog will gradually diminish today, with light snow continuing over portions of the area, as a weak upper low shifts east over central Montana, and another wave lifts north and east through the Central Rockies. A few inches of snow are possible in the mountains, with up to an inch at the lower elevations in Sheridan County. As the weak upper low over Montana slowly shifts east tonight, light snow and reductions due to fog will continue, mainly for areas east of Billings. High temperatures will range from the lower 30s to around 40 degrees today, lowest over the east.
348 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 High pressure will provide dry weather tonight into Wednesday. Deep low pressure advancing from the southwest is expected to bring widespread rain and a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Deep upper low over the srn UP will shift ewd into se ON overnight. Brief thermal ridging ahead of this wave will yield another above normal temp day with low to mid 40s.
1109 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 (Today and tonight) We're seeing increased southwesterly flow in the upper levels ahead of the next upper trough progged to move into the area tonight and tomorrow. The aforementioned upper trough will approach the area overnight with the upper low ejecting out of the Four Corners region and into the South Central plains.
1258 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 An advancing cold front will return isolated to scattered rain showers late this afternoon through late evening.
Upper low in southern Utah continues to push east and expect leftover snow showers in southeast to end with dry conditions expected through Wednesday. Upper level ridge moved overhead tonight into Wednesday then pushes east Wednesday night as next Pacific trof moves toward Idaho.
Latest model cross- sections show that the low-level moisture will remain and this will result in a chance for continued middle to low clouds and/or freezing fog through Wednesday morning.
By tomorrow afternoon, an approaching cold front will result in shower and thunderstorm development, with a few becoming strong to severe. Once the cold front moves through the region, cool and dry conditions are expected through the weekend.
A few areas of flurries continue for some underneath this low stratus deck, but impacts are minimal. Key Messages: - Minimal weather impacts - Some breaks for sun Wed aftn in NE ND/NW MN? - Wed night precipitation chances only brush far southeast fcst area (Grant co) BUFKIT soundings indicate the strong inversion over the fcst area trapping the low level moisture will try to break esp NE ND and NW MN Wednesday as colder temps move in within the 925/850 mb layer. The 500 mb ridge over the area just west of our departing 500 mb low over the Great Lakes will be over us tonight but shift east Wednesday.
656 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 A passing cold front will return isolated to scattered rain showers through late evening.
541 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 Key Messages: - Minimal weather impacts - Some breaks for sun Wed aftn in NE ND/NW MN? - Wed night precipitation chances only brush far southeast fcst area (Grant co) BUFKIT soundings indicate the strong inversion over the fcst area trapping the low level moisture will try to break esp NE ND and NW MN Wednesday as colder temps move in within the 925/850 mb layer. The 500 mb ridge over the area just west of our departing 500 mb low over the Great Lakes will be over us tonight but shift east Wednesday.
High pressure over the west Atlantic will remain in place through Wednesday, extending across central FL. Warming trend will continue, with lows tonight not as chilly, in the upper 40s to low 50s, and becoming even warmer into tomorrow as highs reach the mid to upper 70s.
425 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over the Great Lakes with next upper low approaching the Four Corners. At the surface, ridge is over the central Dakotas with trof in our far western zones. It could become dense again, especially around the terrain of the Black Hills, but influx of mid/high level clouds and eventually precip from the approaching upper low may limit it's effect. Upper low will track from the Four Corners into easterly CO by Wednesday morning, to near the central KS/NE border by late afternoon.
457 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 The moisture advection which supported showers early in the day was well ahead of a cold front, and has shifted southeastward out of the region along with the showers. Although the showers are gone, the cold front is just now encroaching on the forecast area from the northwest.
Right now fog is expected to be confined mainly to the foothills, but will monitor for potential progression into the higher elevations. Water vapor shows upper low over the Great Lakes with next upper low approaching the Four Corners. At the surface, ridge is over the central Dakotas with trof in our far western zones. It could become dense again, especially around the terrain of the Black Hills, but influx of mid/high level clouds and eventually precip from the approaching upper low may limit it's effect. Upper low will track from the Four Corners into easterly CO by Wednesday morning, to near the central KS/NE border by late afternoon.
710 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 Tonight through Wednesday night: Weak upper ridging will prevail over the area tonight and most of Wednesday, but a short wave will drive a cold front into the Delta region late in the day.
312 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2023 The main forecast concern through tonight will continue to be low stratus, patchy freezing fog, and light snow showers across the area. An upper low pressure system will gradually track across the region over the next few days, maintaining this chance at times along with colder temperatures. For this weekend, the upper low will push downstream of the region and an upper ridge pattern will set up over the western U. THis will lead to stronger northwest winds and a chinook pattern for NE Montana which should allow the low level moisture to mix out and temperatures to recover. Look for mainly MVFR to IFR stratus and occasional patchy freezing fog through tonight across area terminals.
Deep upper low over the srn UP will shift ewd into se ON overnight. Brief thermal ridging ahead of this wave will yield another above normal temp day with low to mid 40s. The combination of an upper level short wave tracking across the Great Lakes and strong upper level trough across the Rockies has allowed for a ribbon of strong low level baroclinicity to become anchored from the Mid MS Valley to the Ohio Valley. This baroclinic zone should nudge northward on Wednesday as Rockies trough pulls into the Plains. Gusty west winds this evening will diminish by late evening as sfc reflection with Great Lakes trough pulls off to the east.
923 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 High pressure will provide dry weather tonight into Wednesday. Deep low pressure advancing from the southwest is expected to bring widespread rain and a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night.
A strong low level thermal gradient developing tonight across the southern Great Lakes will lift northward as elevated warm frontal zone on Wednesday. Deep upper low over the srn UP will shift ewd into se ON overnight. Brief thermal ridging ahead of this wave will yield another above normal temp day with low to mid 40s. The combination of an upper level short wave tracking across the Great Lakes and strong upper level trough across the Rockies has allowed for a ribbon of strong low level baroclinicity to become anchored from the Mid MS Valley to the Ohio Valley. This baroclinic zone should nudge northward on Wednesday as Rockies trough pulls into the Plains. Gusty west winds this evening will diminish by late evening as sfc reflection with Great Lakes trough pulls off to the east.
542 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 Current satellite water vapory imagery shows the robust upper level low pressure center over northern Arizona. Any ice or snow amounts would be light for these areas, and with temperatures expected to be above freezing impacts look minimal, therefore no advisory planned at this time. Meanwhile, we will be monitoring the environment closely tomorrow afternoon where possible cold core convection could materialize just east of the upper level low pressure center.
648 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 High pressure will provide dry weather tonight into Wednesday. Deep low pressure advancing from the southwest is expected to bring widespread rain and a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Have a great Tuesday night! (Rest of today through Wednesday) An area of high pressure in the western Atlantic will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida for the rest of this afternoon and into Wednesday as well. With plenty of sunshine for the rest of the day combined with a south to southeasterly wind, high temperatures will rise into the upper 70s across the east coast and into the lower 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
352 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 Key Messages: - Minimal weather impacts - Some breaks for sun Wed aftn in NE ND/NW MN? - Wed night precipitation chances only brush far southeast fcst area (Grant co) BUFKIT soundings indicate the strong inversion over the fcst area trapping the low level moisture will try to break esp NE ND and NW MN Wednesday as colder temps move in within the 925/850 mb layer. The 500 mb ridge over the area just west of our departing 500 mb low over the Great Lakes will be over us tonight but shift east Wednesday.
412 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2023 An upper level low currently positioned over southeastern Utah will continue to move easterly this evening and overnight. The rest of Wednesday will be relatively quiet as a transitory ridge begins building into the area.
711 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 (Through Tonight) The region is between high pressure to the southeast, and stalled frontal boundary across central GA this afternoon. The ridge will build back northwest over area Tonight, helping to erode the remainders of the frontal zone. Lows in the lower to middle 50s Tonight.
425 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2023 The moisture advection which supported showers early in the day was well ahead of a cold front, and has shifted southeastward out of the region along with the showers. Although the showers are gone, the cold front is just now encroaching on the forecast area from the northwest.
Latest satellite imagery showing that significant dry air aloft remains in place with modest ridging from the Caribbean. High pressure has shifted off into the Atlantic and will continue to drift away over the next few days.
By Thursday, an area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes region and extends a cold front southward.
Lingering snow showers will continue through the night with a few more inches of snow possible for the High Country.
Snow will spread across southeast Oregon Wednesday afternoon and southwest Idaho Wednesday evening as an upper level trough deepens over the Intermountain Region. Precipitation will be all snow following a cold front Thursday morning, impacting travel as snow accumulates on icy roads. Models are now showing storm total snowfalls of an inch or two in the lower valleys, with 3-5 inches in the mountains and as much as 10 inches on the higher peaks. The next chance for snowfall will enter later on Wednesday afternoon/evening as an upper level trough dives across the region. This storm system will bring accumulating snow to all areas, along with breezy winds and cooler temperatures.
1104 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 Current satellite water vapory imagery shows the robust upper level low pressure center over northern Arizona. Any ice or snow amounts would be light for these areas, and with temperatures expected to be above freezing impacts look minimal, therefore no advisory planned at this time. Meanwhile, we will be monitoring the environment closely tomorrow afternoon where possible cold core convection could materialize just east of the upper level low pressure center.
(Today through Thursday) A ridge of higher geopotential heights with a closed center situated just south of Cuba continues to maintain a strong footprint over the state of Florida (including South Florida). As winds becomes more southeast in nature, a mild maritime tropical airmass will encompass the region, allowing for warmer minimum temperatures this morning around 50 degrees for the interior and upper 50s/lower 60s along the coasts. Winds become more south to southwest in nature, which will allow for an uptick in temperatures and dewpoints, although rainfall is still unlikely due to suppressive nature of upper high and lack of deep moisture. High temperatures will crawl into the lower 80s Thursday afternoon.
The higher risk of severe weather will focus south and east of the local forecast area.
Latest CAM solutions suggest the higher thunderstorm concentration will occur across northeast Oklahoma. The higher risk of severe weather will focus south and east of the local forecast area.
GOES-16 satellite imagery currently shows the trough over the Lower Colorado Valley, with this upper level trough along with an area of low pressure in the lee of the Rockies, expected to deepen and track northeastward into the Midwest through mid-week. Latest EPS guidance seems to be fairly consistent in narrowing down the location of the highest snowfall, with the 90% probability of 24- hr snowfall greater than 3 inches painted across far southeastern MN, northeast IA, and into west central WI. Some model guidance also suggests a wintry mix or freezing drizzle may be possible along the rain snow transition line, with model soundings showing a possible loss of ice for a time. Elsewhere, there is small potential for brief freezing drizzle as heavy snow comes to an end.
That said, there are some indications in model guidance that the ground-based fog may eventually transition into a layer of very low stratus clouds as elevated warm advection strengthens to the north of a developing warm front across central AL, with some patches of drizzle of light sprinkles also possible close to sunrise.
A strong low level thermal gradient developing tonight across the southern Great Lakes will lift northward as elevated warm frontal zone on Wednesday. Deep upper low over the srn UP will shift ewd into se ON overnight. Brief thermal ridging ahead of this wave will yield another above normal temp day with low to mid 40s. but conditions drop again overnight as next trough and associated surge of warm/moist air advection arrives.
1032 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2023 An upper level low currently positioned over southeastern Utah will continue to move easterly this evening and overnight. The rest of Wednesday will be relatively quiet as a transitory ridge begins building into the area. After a brief period of ridging on Thursday, southwest flow will return to the area as a low digs south into the Great Basin.
1245 AM PST Wed Jan 18 2023 A small trough will move into the area Wednesday through Thursday, bringing some minor precipitation and wind to the San Joaquin Valley. Afterwards, conditions will be relatively dry and cold as a ridge passes through the area and ends the 3-week bout of rain. GEFS and EPS guidance show the trough that brought widespread weekend precipitation has moved out of the area and we are in a brief transition period before a smaller trough moves in and brings minor precipitation and wind to our county warning area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Attention now turns to the next low pressure system that will move into lower MI late tonight into Thursday morning. As a warm front lifts north late tonight, steady precipitation will move into the area. This mixed precipitation/snow will be short lived, as the warm advection pushes the freezing line further north Thursday morning and areas near Big Rapids and Mount Pleasant see a shift towards rain.
For tonight and into Thursday, a new low pressure system should return rain chances to the region. Warm frontal precip will lift into the area Thursday morning and with warm air already in place, should fall as rain. Warm frontal passage through the day on Thursday will leave the area in the warm sector with deterministic models hinting at some minimal instability.
At the surface, a low pressure system will be centered over southwest Kansas this morning, then will track northeastward to eastern Kansas/western Missouri by this evening, then to Illinois/Indiana by Thursday morning and to the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday evening. The precipitation will come to an end by late tonight as the system pulls away from the region and high pressure drops in from the north.
Overnight temperatures in the Keys fell to the low to mid 60s as skies were mostly clear, which promoted radiational cooling. Over the next 72 hours, expect fair weather and near-normal temperatures with nil rain chances due to limited moisture content and sinking air through the atmospheric column due to high pressure in the keys.
Low pressure trough extends northwest of the main low into central Colorado. Upper level low is organizing over eastern Colorado, a little more north than thought. This has kept snowfall amounts on the lower side of the expected range along and west of I-25. Clear skies and fresh snowfall will produce a chilly night with lows in the lower teens and single digits. A few of the typically cool spots may get stuck in the low 20s, depending on our snowpack across the plains. Cloud cover will increase through the day as a weak trough approaches.
Dry weather returns for the morning and afternoon hours before a new cold frontal system moves in for the overnight and tomorrow.