Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Finally, a few storms are trying to develop ahead of the main cold front in north central Oklahoma just northwest of the forecast area. The primary severe weather risk for southeast Oklahoma will accompany a thunderstorm complex expected to organize from storms developing to the west this afternoon ahead of the main upper level trough. The approach of the upper level trough should also lead to expanded thunderstorm coverage farther north along the cold front itself as it begins to move southward across the region, although the evolution of the storms to the south could impact how much expansion actually occurs.
128 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 (Today and tonight) The region will continue to be situated between an upper level ridge to our west and an upper level low across the western Atlantic. As the ridge axis moves east over the region this afternoon and into tonight, we could see a small increase in high level clouds while at the surface, high pressure will keep a steady supply of northeast flow in place. A decrease in the concentration is possible this afternoon as conditions warm and mix, but skies will still likely appear quite hazy and the lower air quality we've seen the last 36 hours could stick around for at least another day. High temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s while temperatures tonight drop into the low to mid 60s.
403 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 High pressure will prevail through Thursday.
The axis of an upper level trough over New Mexico and Colorado will move into west Texas this evening. Aided by the upper-level trough axis and PWATs of 1. In the wake of the front, a much cooler airmass should overspread the area.
311 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 After record warmth today, temperatures will be slightly cooler on Thursday, but still well above normal for this time of the year.
207 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 High pressure maintains control of the weather through Thursday with warm daytime temperatures and no rain.
(Today through Thursday Night ) Mid and high level moisture contd to incrs acrs the FA overnight assocd with an upper lvl trof to our west. Low lvl moisture return was also evident, mainly to the south of AR, where a warm front was situated. Sfc dewpoints north of this bndry were in the lower and mid 60s, with upper 60s/lower 70s common in the warm sector. Model solutions cont to show a more progressive trend with the upper trof/CDFNT acrs AR Thu ngt.
Temperatures did struggle to drop around the valleys and foothills of the Washington Cascades thanks to warmer downsloping winds, so have added this to the forecast but not expecting a significant increase in today's high temperatures from it.
1158 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 (Today and tonight) Following a lull in active weather yesterday afternoon and overnight, today looks to be climax for Fall severe storms ahead of a slow-moving cold front. As the base of a positively- tilted trough reaches our area later this afternoon, a kissing upper jet with 200 mb winds peaking from 120-130 knots will overspread the region within deep SW flow. This trough will keep pressure falls focused in New Mexico all day, so the dryline should make little/no progress into our western counties today leaving the whole of the CWA to bask in a muggy moist sector with light southerly winds. The highest PoPs remain focused off the Caprock where storms are most likely to grow upscale as they encounter even richer PWATs of nearly 2".
210 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Dry high pressure and upper ridging remain firmly in place through tomorrow.
Initial surface cold front will begin to move across the region later tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected to bleed into the region late tonight making for somewhat better sleeping conditions. Pattern Forecast: Longwave trough axis centered upstream from Manitoba through the central Plains at the start of the period Thursday will cross the western Great Lakes to wrap up the week into the weekend. Initial cold front tied to low pressure over Hudson Bay is expected to be slowly crossing northern Michigan Thursday morning. Secondary cold front stretched from the upper MS Valley into the Plains will make inroads across the forecast area late Thursday into Thursday night. Occasionally breezy southwest to west-southwest winds continue with the highest gusts around 20 mph.
The current southerly winds will subside and turn west behind the cold front, which is expected to move clear of the CWA by Thursday morning. Dry weather will prevail Thursday, with daytime highs in the low 70s expected.
1255 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Key Messages: - There is a minor threat for precipitation Thursday night in association with a Canadian cold front.
(This evening through Thursday) High pressure will move to the northeast over the Appalachians today and tonight as a deep trough develops over the plains and slowly moves eastward. As the high pressure moves further east tonight, low and mid level flow will transition out of the south with moisture increasing over the area. Clouds will increase through the morning and early afternoon in response, and high temperatures Thursday afternoon will be few degrees cooler than today.
While terminals should remain dry through the day, we will see a few isolated showers pop up across the area, but I elected to leave these out of the TAFs due to the low probability of operational impacts. Otherwise, most locations across North Central Montana can see breezy conditions this morning, becoming calmer later this evening after a cold front moves through tonight.
Latest water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at midday depicts longwave troughing over the majority of the CONUS between a pair of ridges over the east and west coasts. As usual, a much cooler airmass has accompanied these north winds, fostering afternoon highs today in the low to mid 70s. Little change is expected to sensible weather during the day Thursday as the upper level longwave trough inches eastward while a vorticity maximum rounds its base over the southern plains. However, any reinforcing shot of cool air associated with this evolution will be offset by 850-mb temperatures warming by 1-3 degrees C, resulting in a slightly warmer afternoon Thursday with highs in the mid/upper 70s to near 80.
120 PM MST Wed Oct 4 2023 Dry and tranquil conditions will prevail the next several days as high pressure builds into the region.
Cold front moves through Thursday morning and rain tapers off by Thursday afternoon.
2) Otherwise, rain chances will increase tonight through Thursday along and ahead of a cold front crossing through the region. The highest potential for rain (80-90%) will be south of a Columbia, MO to Pittsfield, IL line.
1018 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 GOES Water Vapor satellite imagery shows the trough axis pivoting across the state this morning, with a noted clearing trend over northern and northeastern Colorado over the past few hours. The trough will continue to advance today, and a secondary, weaker wave will brush our northern mountains early in the period. Flow aloft will be turning northwesterly and decreasing as the trough exits. Temperatures are forecast a few degrees cooler across the plains and a few degrees warmer across the high country, a bit cooler than normal everywhere.
1036 AM PDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Warming trend continues over Central California as high pressure builds.
Water vapor imagery highlights a mid to upper level low to the east of Florida, with a larger cyclonic gyre spreading southeast into the upper Midwest.
(This evening through Thursday) The cold front is shown well both by surface observations and radar. The cold front will surge southward after sunset and will help to push convection to our south and east with most convection in the FA ending around/shortly after midnight. Clouds will clear from northwest to southeast tomorrow as the axis of the upper trough pushes east of the FA.
A cold front and upper level trough will push across the region tonight. There could be some lingering showers in the northeast closer to the upper level low. This secondary push of cold air could bring freezing temperatures to many areas across the west and north central.
Showers will continue to move west and along the Mississippi River ahead of a cold front. Tomorrow, the cold front will push through the area and bring more widespread showers and a few storms throughout the region. Behind the cold front, highs for the weekend are expected to be in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
141 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Breezy conditions will continue today as a cold front pushes through the area.
Another fast moving clipper type system will push through the region Thu night, supporting another round of showers, possibly mixed with snow in the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Temps will drop into the low to mid 30s most places Thur night with a few places dropping below freezing where skies clear and winds drop off.
120 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Dry and seasonably warm weather through most of the day Thursday will give way to much cooler temperature and periods of rain through the weekend as a potent upper low crosses north of the region. Seasonably cool weather is favored to continue thereafter under persistent troughing. The initiation of southerly flow aloft ahead of an incoming potent upper trough will promote weak moist advection. This precipitation will be primarily driven by upper-dynamics as the surface cold front will remain farther displaced west.
Ridging will continue across the eastern US and down across the state, keeping the NE flow in place through the end of the week while an upper low sits to the west of the state. Highs will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s central and south.
Things expected to stay dry tonight and Thursday as high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern. The dome of warm, dry air that has stagnated over the Southeast for the past several days has begun to break down as the ridge axis moves off of the Eastern Seaboard.
(Through Thursday) An upper level ridge to our west and a upper level low over the western Atlantic with high pressure at the surface will continue the east/northeast flow pattern at the surface and midlevels through Thursday. Highs for tomorrow will be in the upper 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s.
(Tonight) A trough extending from the northern Plains down into the Four Corners will shift eastward tonight, starting to push out the high pressure anchored along the Mid Atlantic that has kept us warm and dry today. With this, we will continue to see cloud cover increase tonight, keeping overnight lows a tad warmer that last night. Look for temps to only reach the low/mid 60s with a few cool spots reaching the upper 50s.
145 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 High pressure prevails through much of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal.
Maximum temperatures will decrease slightly as cloud coverage increases ahead of a surface cold front. Rain chances will increase this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front that is slated to arrive Thursday night.
TFJ NW flow aloft will prevail the next few days until an upper ridge moves into the area over the weekend. A wave in the NW flow aloft will bring a cold front through NE Montana between 10 am and 1 pm today. Another cold front is expected during the day on Thursday with stronger NW winds than today which will keep the Lake Wind Advisory going. Lows Thursday night will be from the lower 20s to lower 30s.
1250 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Warm, southerly flow will remain over the region through tonight as upper level high pressure slowly breaks down ahead of an upper level longwave trough.
The cloud cover late Thursday night is uncertain, and this is causing uncertainty in the low temperature forecast.
253 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 An elongated mid/upper trough stretches from the Northern Plains south and southwestward into the Rockies. This trough is progged to continue moving eastward through tonight bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to portions of south central and much of southeast Kansas where low level moisture hasn't been scoured away. A stable post-frontal regime will become established across the area on Thursday as high pressure builds into the area in the wake of the front. With plenty of insolation, highs may climb into the low 80s over southern KS.
246 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 *** Radar is Under Mandatory Maintenance *** Cold front has moved through the area with brisk NW winds in it's wake. Temperatures in the 60s early this afternoon will drop into 30s to around 40 tonight but the winds will make it feel much cooler. TFJ Another cold front is expected during the day on Thursday with stronger NW winds than today which will keep the Lake Wind Advisory going. Lows Thursday night will be from the lower 20s to lower 30s.
1141 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Upper trough moves through today but no precipitation is expected.
/29 (Now through Thursday) A large positively tilted upper trof over the northern/central Plains to the 4 Corners region takes on a meridional orientation while advancing across much of the central CONUS. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s inland to around 70 at the coast.
Clouds will again be slow to clear into the early afternoon, however, some clearing is expected this afternoon and evening as the ridge offshore builds further into Western Washington. Upper level ridging offshore today and tonight will move east Thursday.
1138 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 GOES Water Vapor satellite imagery shows the trough axis pivoting across the state this morning, with a noted clearing trend over northern and northeastern Colorado over the past few hours. The trough will continue to advance today, and a secondary, weaker wave will brush our northern mountains early in the period. Flow aloft will be turning northwesterly and decreasing as the trough exits. Temperatures are forecast a few degrees cooler across the plains and a few degrees warmer across the high country, a bit cooler than normal everywhere.
315 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 A cold front will approach from the west tonight and move across the region tomorrow.
Subsidence behind a departing trough axis has left most of the region under partly cloudy skies with temperatures near normal values for this time of year. There's a bit more cloud cover across the high country, but otherwise there's not much to talk about. Weak northwest flow aloft is expected to continue into tomorrow as ridging gradually tries to build to our west, while the main longwave trough axis hangs out to our east. Dry conditions will continue through the day with highs a couple of degrees cooler than today.
(This afternoon through Thursday Night) Cloud cover is increasing today, but we've still warmed into the low to mid 80s in many places. Cloud cover will remain in place ahead of the showers and should keep temperatures warmer overnight, which will inhibit fog development. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler tomorrow as showers push east throughout the day.
1258 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 (Today through Tonight) As of early this morning, latest observation stations were showing the stalled cold frontal boundary sitting just north of Amarillo with places like Miami and Hereford still ahead of the boundary.
1135 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Current surface analysis shows cold front now east of the area, from the eastern Dakotas to eastern NE and central KS, with high pressure to the west of the region. Upper level analysis shows trough moving across the Plains, with shower activity well east of the region now. A cooler wx pattern will prevail through the end of the week, with a clipper system crossing the region Thursday bringing the coldest air of the season so far. Some snowflakes could mix in across the higher Black Hills later tonight if any showers reach that area. A light dusting of snow accumulation is possible over the higher Black Hills if pcpn develops.
Additional showers and a few storms are also expected overnight in this area, as the cold front gets closer to the area. Further southeast, forecast soundings show slow moistening of the lower atmosphere later this evening, with anything greater than sprinkles likely holding off in areas near I-57 until closer to midnight. After that, rain chances ramp up quickly as 850 mb low level winds bring in moist air at the lower levels.
1257 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Upper trough moves through today but no precipitation is expected.
Discussion: More cloud coverage this afternoon than this time yesterday! Always neat to see the cumulus clouds curl in the low level flow around the southern end of the mountains up into Middle Tennessee. The upper level ridge axis that has provided us with the dry warm weather will slide eastward as a large scale trough moves across the Plains and the first real cold front of fall approaches our area. While tomorrow is expected to remain dry through the afternoon, cloud coverage will be on the increase and temperatures will be slightly cooler than today.
A prominent upper ridge continued to persist over the NERN PAC this afternoon, while broad upper troughing was located over the CNTRL CONUS.
Currently - A substantial surface through lower level ridge is situated over the Atlantic States. This ridge is producing moderate east northeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters this evening. The combination of the ridge and a mid through upper level trough off the southeast Atlantic coast is contributing to drier lower through mid level air across our broader region. The Keys will remain under the influence of the descending branch of the trough aloft and surface ridging will remain anchored to our north. Dew point temperatures will remain in the lower 70s. A ridge across the Atlantic and Gulf coast states will maintain moderate northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters.
Late this evening, a very slow moving cold front is located roughly along a Kirksville, MO to Rockford, IL line. Additional showers and a few storms are also expected overnight in this area, as the cold front gets closer to the area. Further southeast, forecast soundings show slow moistening of the lower atmosphere later this evening, with anything greater than sprinkles likely holding off in areas near I-57 until closer to midnight. After that, rain chances ramp up quickly as 850 mb low level winds bring in moist air at the lower levels.
513 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The axis of the long wave trough which moved over the forecast area last night had pushed east of the Continental Divide around midday. That said, freezing conditions in the upper Colorado River Basin and the Four Corners region look very marginal. Dry northwest flow settles over the region on Thursday and continues Thursday night as a ridge builds along the West Coast. A ridge of high pressure built over the Western U.
816 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 High pressure maintains control of the weather through Thursday with warm daytime temperatures and no rain.
935 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 (Issued 935 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023) Rain and a few thunderstorms are developing ahead the surface cold front draped across eastern Wisconsin. Most of the rain is developing out ahead of the surface cold front, but there are some post frontal showers across central Wisconsin. The current southerly winds will subside and turn west behind the cold front, which is expected to move clear of the CWA by Thursday morning. Dry weather will prevail Thursday, with daytime highs in the low 70s expected.
The latest timing based on recent CAMs brings these storms through the Highway 380 corridor 7 to 9 PM, the I-20 corridor 9 PM to midnight and accelerating south into Central Texas midnight through 3 AM as the cold pool matures. West-to-east training of cells will be the areas to focus on for the highest flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the northeast-most counties where the highest rainfall totals are expected and where the wettest soils exist. Storms will push south of the forecast area Thursday morning as the upper trough responsible for the convection sweeps southeast through the region. A cold front will follow soon after, bringing much more seasonable weather to the area on Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
718 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 (This evening through Thursday) High pressure will move to the northeast over the Appalachians today and tonight as a deep trough develops over the plains and slowly moves eastward. As the high pressure moves further east tonight, low and mid level flow will transition out of the south with moisture increasing over the area. Clouds will increase through the morning and early afternoon in response, and high temperatures Thursday afternoon will be few degrees cooler than today.
646 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 High pressure will prevail through Thursday.
753 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Breezy conditions will continue today as a cold front pushes through the area.
Currently, a cold front extends across northwest Illinois through southeast Kansas and into northwest Texas. ARS Showers will continue to move west and along the Mississippi River ahead of a cold front. Tomorrow, the cold front will push through the area and bring more widespread showers and a few storms throughout the region. Behind the cold front, highs for the weekend are expected to be in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
803 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Dry high pressure and upper ridging remain firmly in place through tomorrow.
1004 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 High pressure will prevail through Thursday.
807 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 *** Radar is Under Mandatory Maintenance *** In the wake of today's re-enforcing cold front the scattered sprinkles and disorganized light rain showers have mostly diminished and moved further southeast away from northeast Montana. ----BMickelson Previous discussion: Cold front has moved through the area with brisk NW winds in it's wake. Temperatures in the 60s early this afternoon will drop into 30s to around 40 tonight but the winds will make it feel much cooler. TFJ Another cold front is expected during the day on Thursday with stronger NW winds than today which will keep the Lake Wind Advisory going. Lows Thursday night will be from the lower 20s to lower 30s.
733 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 (Through Thursday) An upper level ridge to our west and a upper level low over the western Atlantic with high pressure at the surface will continue the east/northeast flow pattern at the surface and midlevels through Thursday. Highs for tomorrow will be in the upper 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s.
550 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Aviation Section Updated Breezy conditions will continue today as a cold front pushes through the area.
Upper ridging offshore will build further into the Pacific Northwest through this weekend.
Today a slow moving cold front has gradually sagged into the area and gradually shifted light winds to the northwest with its passage. Cooler temperatures lag behind the todays frontal passage with temperatures Thursday remaining above normal in the mid to upper 70s for most. By Thursday evening attention turns to troughing over central Canada starting to dig south toward the Central Plains.
612 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 (This evening through Thursday) The cold front is shown well both by surface observations and radar. The cold front will surge southward after sunset and will help to push convection to our south and east with most convection in the FA ending around/shortly after midnight. Clouds will clear from northwest to southeast tomorrow as the axis of the upper trough pushes east of the FA.
644 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 An elongated mid/upper trough stretches from the Northern Plains south and southwestward into the Rockies. This trough is progged to continue moving eastward through tonight bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to portions of south central and much of southeast Kansas where low level moisture hasn't been scoured away. A stable post-frontal regime will become established across the area on Thursday as high pressure builds into the area in the wake of the front. With plenty of insolation, highs may climb into the low 80s over southern KS.