Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Profiles this afternoon depict convective instability with this high dewpoint airmass in place and a slow moving wave helping to suppress the ridge aloft. This is associated with the main upper low, which makes a very slow progression eastwards, slow enough that any convection wont reach the western CWA likely after sundown. CAMS show weak convection migrating towards and then lingering in the Mobridge area associated with these structure. This doesn't end up being a strong push of cooler air, but drier air will meet up with our humid airmass at the eastern and northern edges of the CWA. Overall, cooler temperatures Friday is more contingent on the increased coverage of clouds.
541 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (Today and tonight) For the 5th day in a row now, the upper level ridge continues it's gradual shift eastward, and for today will shift over the ArkLaTex region, continuing the trend of another dry day with another slight increase in temperatures. With the gradual weakening of the upper level ridge during it's progression eastward, evening and overnight showers and storms along the periphery of the ridge will begin to shift into northern Oklahoma overnight. Chances will initially remain low (~25%), and will depend on the progression of the upper level ridge, as well as the amount the ridge becomes less amplified.
626 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) Latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicates little change to the overall pattern, aside from the broadening of the ridge of high pressure, which remains centered in the vicinity of North Texas/the Red River Valley. As the ridge continues to broaden, subsidence will increase over the region, and the fetch of subtropical monsoonal moisture will shift westward. Additionally, as the ridge expands, our temperatures continue to rise, edging up to around 100 to 104 degrees across the plains today, hotter through the river valleys, with the higher elevations still holding on in the lower to middle 90s.
450 AM PDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Not quite as hot for inland areas today as stronger onshore flow brings cooling, then warmer for the weekend as high pressure aloft strengthens over California.
939 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Low pressure moves across Quebec today, bringing a cold front south across the region Friday morning.
607 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 High pressure continues to yield dry conditions, sunny skies, and near normal temperatures.
624 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (Today through Friday) Mid-level ridging centered over East Texas will continue to maintain hot and humid conditions across the region through the period. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Brownsville radar currently shows some steamer showers moving along the Lower Texas Coast.
1006 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Most of the day will be dry as the area remains under northwest flow and weak high pressure. Models are currently focusing on mainly northern West Virginia and the southern ridges. Soundings are also developing a weak cap this afternoon as warmer air aloft overspreads the region. This disturbance will provide a bit more synoptic support for shower and thunderstorm activity, with greatest concentration over the higher terrain to the east. This wave then continues east of our are and serves as the driving mechanism in ejecting the parent upper low that has been sitting over eastern Canad out over the western Atlantic, which finally transitions the deep-layer flow over our area from northwesterly to more zonal.
Dry and warming conditions continue into the weekend as the ridge expands west.
614 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Aviation Surface cold front will sink slowly south through the state today and tonight.
Rest of today sees the weakening of an upper level ridge, and the advancement of a broad cutoff upper low to the area. The result will be the development of showers and thunderstorms closer to this low, mainly in western and south central portions today. The mentioned upper low advances more eastward through tonight, continuing the chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.
515 AM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Afternoon temperatures will begin to trend cooler with the propagation of monsoonal moisture, which will also be responsible for showers and potential thunderstorm development over the next few days. Upper-level ridging retains dominance over much of CONUS, with its axis centralized over eastern Montana, driving yet another day of warm, above seasonal average temperatures to Central and North- central Montana. Meanwhile monsoonal moisture resumes to propagate northward into the Treasure State, which can still be visualized on low-level water vapor satellite imagery, allowing temperatures in the Southwest to trend cooler, below seasonal averages. 25") of precipitation for locations south of the MT Hwy 200 Corridor and east of I-15, with the higher probabilities lingering east of US-287.
638 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (Today through Friday) The upper level dome of high pressure continues to reside over eastern portions of Texas and western Louisiana today. The only difference is a bit more moisture at the surface is realized as the low level fetch is more off the Gulf allowing for a slight increase in boundary layer moisture.
However the relatively best chance for a few showers and storms will hold off until around the 00Z-06Z time frame this evening along and just ahead of the cold front moving in from the north and as suggested by the 12z 3km nam and 12z HRRR. Surface cold front will sink slowly south through the state today and tonight.
659 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Dangerously hot conditions are expected this afternoon as an upper-level ridge builds into the Mid-South.
616 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (Today and tonight) Looks like another hot day across the area with a strong upper level high over the area and an intense low level thermal ridge over the northwest part of the area.
614 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (Today through Friday) The H5 ridge will remain centered near northeast Texas today. A very slight weakening of heights and very slight increase in dew points may allow for temperatures today a degree cooler in some spots, but still hot. The ridge shifts south on Friday, centering across South Central and Southeast Texas. As this happens, high temperatures Friday may trend a degree or two warmer than today.
615 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Surface analysis indicates low level ridging and a drier airmass building in from the north as upper level ridging strengthens. Ensemble guidance in good agreement depicting upper ridging building across the central CONUS, with low level ridging building into our portion of the northern plains. -Showers & thunderstorms may start the weekend -Temperatures near normal values Water vapor indicates an upper wave currently over Utah, and guidance crashes this feature into the upper ridging.
611 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (Today) Upper ridge remains firmly in control across the local region today with high temperatures at or slightly above those recorded yesterday.
Most places start Friday morning in the 60s as low level moisture continues to tick higher ahead of a southeastward- advancing cold front. Central PA will be on southern periphery of upper trough centered over northern Quebec east of James Bay with seasonably strong NW flow aloft. Convection should weaken and shift to the southeast as the cold front traverses the area tomorrow night. The latest GEFS and ECENS both support a return to fair and seasonable weather this weekend, as the cold front passes well south of PA and high pressure builds in from the Grt Lks.
628 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 A low pressure system tracking from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley will spread showers and a few thunderstorms across the area through today. A cold front brings another chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday. A few scattered showers are ongoing across the area this morning associated with an upper wave approaching from the west along a warm front centered between an upper trough over the Atlantic and a ridge over the Southern Plains. However, with cooler temperatures expected, thinking thunderstorm coverage will be limited, but could see some a embedded storms capable of very localized heavy rainfall amounts. With ample cloud cover and rainfall expected, temperatures today will be well below normal with mountain locations likely staying in the 60s and lower elevations in the lower 70s.
/Schlotz/ (Today through Friday) The upper level dome of high pressure continues to reside over eastern portions of Texas and western Louisiana today. The only difference is a bit more moisture at the surface is realized as the low level fetch is more off the Gulf allowing for a slight increase in boundary layer moisture.
The story is similar to yesterday, with the best storm chances remaining in areas south and east of Tucson due to the location of a upper level high currently located over New Mexico and the dominant upper level high located over Texas.
Expect similar conditions to setup tomorrow with the ridge shifting slowly westward across Texas. Tonight and Friday night will remain muggy with lows from the mid 70s over the inland Coastal Plains to the lower 80s along the coast.
248 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Rain will continue tonight as a low pressure system tracks from Kentucky into the Carolinas.
844 AM PDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Not quite as hot for inland areas today as stronger onshore flow brings cooling, then warmer for the weekend as high pressure aloft strengthens over California.
Warmer temperatures for Friday. Temperatures will be warmer as we won't be dealing with the rain like we have today.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms along a cold front over northwest Wisconsin and east central Minnesota could bring a trace up to a tenth of accumulation this afternoon. Dry weather continues Friday with temperatures remaining in the 80s as a ridge moves over the Midwest.
This afternoon, broad ridging extended across much of the western and central CONUS, with a potent trough and closed low embedded in southwest flow aloft approaching the Northern Plains. Latest high-res guidance continues the trend of somewhat widely scattered convection continuing through tonight as the upper low churns and expands east, with precipitation chances slowly expanding north into northwest North Dakota, and east into south central North Dakota. This trend will continue through Friday and Friday night as the upper low strengthens some and a warm conveyor belt advects additional moisture into the area, keeping PWATs high and promoting heavy rainfall rates.
Satellite trends, as well as support for CAMS, suggest isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain areas of the Prairie Coteau. Profiles this afternoon depict convective instability with this high dewpoint airmass in place and a slow moving wave helping to suppress the ridge aloft. This is associated with the main upper low, which makes a very slow progression eastwards, slow enough that any convection wont reach the western CWA likely after sundown. CAMS show weak convection migrating towards and then lingering in the Mobridge area associated with these structure. This doesn't end up being a strong push of cooler air, but drier air will meet up with our humid airmass at the eastern and northern edges of the CWA. Overall, cooler temperatures Friday is more contingent on the increased coverage of clouds.
1254 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Low pressure moves across Quebec today, bringing a cold front south across the region Friday morning.
133 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 High pressure will persist across the region into the weekend.
1156 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (Today and tonight) For the 5th day in a row now, the upper level ridge continues it's gradual shift eastward, and for today will shift over the ArkLaTex region, continuing the trend of another dry day with another slight increase in temperatures. With the gradual weakening of the upper level ridge during it's progression eastward, evening and overnight showers and storms along the periphery of the ridge will begin to shift into northern Oklahoma overnight. Chances will initially remain low (~25%), and will depend on the progression of the upper level ridge, as well as the amount the ridge becomes less amplified.
The upper level ridge over the western CONUS and dome of high pressure parked over the southwest and southern Mississippi Valley stays with us through the short term.
Storm activity later today will be confined to the AZ/NM border and extreme southeastern Arizona, as high pressure continues to make its presence known.
1230 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 High pressure continues to yield dry conditions, sunny skies, and near normal temperatures.
To the east, breaks in the cloud cover ahead of the low have allowed instability to steepen, and isolated thunderstorms are beginning to fill in and increase in coverage early this afternoon. Where some clearing can be realized overnight as circulation moves overhead, some fog may be possible in lower elevations given the high humidities and recent rain amounts, and have left previous forecast intact in that regard. East Idaho remains under influence of broad diffuse trough and general weak circulation overhead.
(This evening through Friday) Not much change to talk about in the short term, with very hot and dry weather prevailing as high pressure dominates.
One 6-8" swath across SEMO, another 5-6" swatch across the lower Wabash.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Upper ridge today stretches from AZ to FL with two circulation centers, one over SE AZ and the over over NE TX. The ridge will build west tonight and Friday as a low tracks over the top of the ridge into the Northern Plains. There is a chance of storms over the higher elevations tonight and Friday.
1235 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) Latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicates little change to the overall pattern, aside from the broadening of the ridge of high pressure, which remains centered in the vicinity of North Texas/the Red River Valley. As the ridge continues to broaden, subsidence will increase over the region, and the fetch of subtropical monsoonal moisture will shift westward. Additionally, as the ridge expands, our temperatures continue to rise, edging up to around 100 to 104 degrees across the plains today, hotter through the river valleys, with the higher elevations still holding on in the lower to middle 90s.
Little change foreseeon on Friday as most places start out milder and more humid than recent days as low level moisture continues to tick higher ahead of a southeastward- advancing cold front. Central PA will be on southern periphery of upper trough centered over northern Quebec east of James Bay with seasonably strong NW flow aloft. Convection should weaken and shift to the southeast as the cold front traverses the area tomorrow night.
As the day continues and the low shifts northeast, this push will also travel northeastward across the state, bringing enhanced rain chances with it. The main focus for flooding today will be for northwest Wyoming extending across northern Wyoming, as it is located close to the low's center and therefore will have the best supporting dynamics to keep showers and storms going through the whole day and overnight. Friday is interesting, as the low looks to almost form two, distinct centers, one over northwestern Wyoming and one over northeastern Wyoming. The ECMWF has more confidence in this solution, with the GFS having less distinct closed lows. Also occurring, the high over the southern United States will strengthen westward, limiting the direct supply of moisture into the state.
1206 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (The rest of today) Upper ridge remains dominant over the forecast area today, with high temperatures trending a degree or two warmer than those recorded yesterday.
The humid conditions will continue and with temperatures expected to be in the 80s, heat index readings in the lower 90s are very possible.
Temperatures were a bit cooler in the western zones, which had full sunshine yesterday, and about ten degrees warmer in the central and eastern zones, which had clouds yesterday and were getting sun today. The dry air will spread through southern Nevada today and northwest Arizona tomorrow, bringing conditions more common in mid to late June, with high temperatures 100 to 110 in most of the lower deserts, except near 115 in Death Valley, and dewpoints in the 20s and 30s.
325 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (Issued 325 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023) Tonight through Friday Night: The potential for pop-up showers and thunderstorms remains in the forecast this afternoon and evening, with the highest chances north of the I-94 corridor in the evening hours. The cold front associated with the low over James Bay Canada will sweep southward across our region overnight into Friday morning.
Storms will be mostly scattered (30-50 percent coverage) over the higher terrain, and isolated in the valleys.
1235 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (Today through Friday) Mid-level ridging centered over East Texas will continue to maintain hot and humid conditions across the region through the period. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Brownsville radar currently shows some steamer showers moving along the Lower Texas Coast.
Drier and much warmer conditions are expected thereafter into the weekend. Scattered cumulus clouds are likely this afternoon along the higher terrain and northeastward with isolated storm activity possible (15-20% chances) for areas mainly from the San Francisco Peaks to the Kaibab Plateau.
Rain continues to rotate around an upper level low over Idaho, that is slowly moving northeastward. On Friday, the upper level low drifts towards eastern MT, with most of the precipitation moving in that direction.
(This evening through Friday) Mid-level ridging will start to break down this evening and into tomorrow. Perturbations along the northern periphery of the broader ridge will help to aid in thunderstorm development along the High Plains this evening. A weak front will try to make its way into northern Oklahoma this evening, helping low temperatures to get down into the 70s across northern Oklahoma, while the rest of the area will struggle to get out of the low 80s. Another hot day is in store again tomorrow as the aforementioned front retreats back to the north, and mid-level ridging stays over the area.
(Tonight through Friday night) Triple digit temperatures and heat index values will continue to be the main weather highlight in the short term period as the mid/upper level ridge dominates over Texas. These values do approach the high to extreme levels for portions of the region tomorrow afternoon, which indicate that those who spend a prolonged period outdoors due to work or exercise many not be able to cool themselves during the hottest parts of the day.
(This evening through Friday) The synoptic pattern has changed very little over the past 24 hours with the upper ridge centered over SE TX with a broad midlevel trough positioned over the NW CONUS. The core of the upper ridge will sink slightly southwestward on Friday with the midlevel moisture plume consequently shifting more squarely over the South Plains region during the afternoon.
To the east, a weak ridge of high pressure is centered west of the Azores.
412 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 High pressure will persist across the region overnight.
Upper ridging will build into the Plains and move eastward late today into tonight.
1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (Today through Friday) The H5 ridge will remain centered near northeast Texas today. A very slight weakening of heights and very slight increase in dew points may allow for temperatures today a degree cooler in some spots, but still hot. The ridge shifts south on Friday, centering across South Central and Southeast Texas. As this happens, high temperatures Friday may trend a degree or two warmer than today.
116 PM PDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Not quite as hot for inland areas today as stronger onshore flow brings cooling, then warmer for the weekend as high pressure aloft strengthens over California.
The area with the highest severe potential stretches from the central Black Hills into SW SD, where the stronger shear exists.
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight) Unseasonably hot/humid conditions continue this afternoon as upper high, currently centered southwest of the ArkLaTx region, continues to dominate the overall weather pattern.
1252 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (Today and tonight) Looks like another hot day across the area with a strong upper level high over the area and an intense low level thermal ridge over the northwest part of the area.
(The rest of today) Upper ridge remains dominant over the forecast area today, with high temperatures trending a degree or two warmer than those recorded yesterday.
On Friday, a similar pattern is to be expected with not much differences in the high or low temperatures.
MM/25 (Now through Friday) An upper ridge centered over the south central states which extends into the region gradually retreats from the forecast area through Friday as an upper trof evolves near/along the East Coast states.
High pressure nudges closer to our region late week with above average temperatures expected by the weekend away from the coast. The longwave pattern remains the same - the Bay Area remains on the western periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Desert SW and upstream an persistent upper level trough remains. The cloud erosion and inland sunshine will be earlier than previous days as high pressure to the east builds slowly westward. The building high pressure and earlier onset of sunshine will lead to slightly warmer temperatures on Friday.
225 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Short Term/Marine A consensus blend of latest CAMs as well as the 12Z HREF suggest that the relatively best chance for scattered showers and storms mainly across the northern third to half of our fcst area will come early to mid evening along and just ahead of the cold front. This notion seems reasonable given rgnl radar trends and cold frontal timing. Winds veering to the north to ne after fropa tonight will gradually advect a drier airmass into our area for Friday but it will still be quite warm with high temps reaching the lower to middle 80s.
536 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Rain will continue tonight as a low pressure system tracks from Kentucky into the Carolinas.
623 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (This evening through Friday) Not much change to talk about in the short term, with very hot and dry weather prevailing as high pressure dominates.
As our high pressure system becomes elongated from east to west and its center migrates westward from eastern Texas, high confidence exists in a warming and drying period continuing through the weekend across the Southwest.
A quiet evening is in progress across east central Florida with temperatures primarily in the low 80s.
722 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 High pressure will persist across the region overnight.
Today, cloud cover and light rain caused the daytime high temperatures at Key West International Airport and Marathon International Airport to remain in the lower 90s. Throughout the rest of the night, anticipate a combination of clear and partly cloudy conditions accompanied by temperatures in the low 80s.
734 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 Rain will continue tonight as a low pressure system tracks from Kentucky into the Carolinas.
628 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (This evening through Friday) The synoptic pattern has changed very little over the past 24 hours with the upper ridge centered over SE TX with a broad midlevel trough positioned over the NW CONUS. The core of the upper ridge will sink slightly southwestward on Friday with the midlevel moisture plume consequently shifting more squarely over the South Plains region during the afternoon.
653 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 (The rest of this afternoon and tonight) Unseasonably hot/humid conditions continue this afternoon as upper high, currently centered southwest of the ArkLaTx region, continues to dominate the overall weather pattern.
949 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 High pressure will persist across the region overnight.
Friday should be drier in the mountains, but showers will be possible east of the Blue Ridge.