Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
First off, a cloud line has already developed along the island chain, especially over the Lower and Middle Keys. Temperatures are already in the lower to mid 80s, which is a tad bit "cooler" than this time yesterday, owing to the cloud debris aloft.
High pressure will continue to build over the region today, helping to warm temperatures to above normal.
Otherwise, temperatures are warming already into the lower 70s this morning. A broad inverted trough extends across the western High Plains, from western Kansas to western North Dakota. Water vapor imagery showed the main upper low also over western KS. Models lift the 700/500mb low northeast into central NE by 00z tonight, with ridging extending across northeast ND into northwest MN. Highs therefore, will be warmer in the north as well.
1005 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 As a warm front lifts north and moisture increases across the region expect to see an increasing potential for shower and thunderstorm development today into tonight.
354 AM MDT Fri May 12 2023 GOES-18 satellite imagery displays an upper level low feeding additional moisture into our region. The center of this low sits along the Colorado/Kansas border and is expected to shift northeast gradually this morning. If you're traveling to the higher elevations, prepare for low visibility and slick roads.
A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to amplify over the Northern Rockies today through the weekend. On Saturday, the ridge will elongate and become increasingly positively tilted. In the meantime, low pressure to the southeast will spread west, south of the ridge axis. This high-over-low configuration will create gusty easterly winds on Saturday afternoon and evening until about sunset.
157 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 Clouds will increase tonight into Saturday as a warm front lifts towards the Commonwealth.
1108 AM MDT Fri May 12 2023 07z surface analysis had low over western KS and inverted trough into western SD. Water vapour loop had upper low over east- central CO spinning chunks of energy into the central/northern Plains. Effect of this upper low main concern into the weekend.
357 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 Several rounds of showers and storms continue into Friday night and Saturday before the warm frontal boundary shifts further south.
1253 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 (Today through Saturday) High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to support prevailing easterly flow over SFL today, while at the mid-levels ridging will largely prevail over the eastern US although various low-amplitude upper disturbances (likely influenced by convection) will be present over the GOM/western Atlantic. In general expect mostly dry conditions given the presence of the ridge, although isolated-scattered activity will be possible over the west coast near the pinned Gulf Breeze. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s over the east coast to the low 90s over the Interior.
The low over the central Plains will continue to slowly progress northeast into Iowa by end of day Saturday, weakening as it goes. Some showers and thunderstorms have been developing again on the nose of the inverted trough extending from the low. Best shear and CAPE remains south of I-90 closer to the low.
-- Chance of Showers Mainly In Southern Michigan Today -- Increasing mid-level clouds associated with the trough/vorticity that originated over Texas a few days ago will result in a cloudier day, though still warm and fairly dry, more so in central Michigan and north of I-96. In the low probability case of robust convection, there has been the signal in various models of bullseyes of 1+ inch of rain. -- Mostly Dry Weekend Though Some Chance For Rain -- Though weak upper-level ridging and dry northeasterly low-level flow will be present on Saturday, remnant mid-level moisture may threaten to produce a few light rain showers on Saturday.
The low over southern Nebraska has continued to bring moisture and some energy into southeastern Montana. While the activity has generally been moving east to west, with the easterly flow, the activity should continue to shift east with the low. This will be due to a low pressure that starts to form over western Wyoming as a ridge over the Pacific Northwest starts to flop over into the southern Canadian Rockies. Much of the the energy with the low currently over the Central Plains will be drawn up into this newly forming low as it retrogrades west.
Not much change at all as we head through tonight, with the region remaining centered between northeast Canada and central Plains trough axes. Some thinning of the high clouds tonight, with generally a bit more clouds as one heads further south.
Meanwhile, the showers over the far northeast corner of the state around Julesburg and Holyoke are likely to remain more persistent this afternoon given their proximity to the upper level low. GOES-18 satellite imagery displays an upper level low feeding additional moisture into our region. The center of this low sits along the Colorado/Kansas border and is expected to shift northeast gradually this morning. If you're traveling to the higher elevations, prepare for low visibility and slick roads.
105 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023 (Today through Saturday Night ) An upper low over the High Plains will move northeast today into the northern Plains. An upper ridge will expand over the southeast U. Saturday and Saturday night the ridge will expand into the Midwest and an upper low will expand over the western U. This warm front will lift north today. A cold front will move into the state Saturday and bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms.
A warm front at 3 pm CDT was analyzed from near Beatrice through Albion and west to near Dunning. Intense storm will continue to develop and lift north of this warm front into north central Nebraska. A closed upper low was currently centered over northeast Lincoln County and southwest Custer County. This low will track into far southeast SD by 12Z Saturday. A cold front will also advance eastward with a breezy northwest wind. On Saturday, the upper low will fill, as a broad area of unsettled weather remains across the region.
This is due to the higher instability that developed as these areas had more clearing earlier today compared to areas further west, along the Cumberland Plateau. The best chances for any storms will remain across the aforementioned eastern areas due to the higher instability. Saturday: with high pressure to our south, we are on the northern periphery of the high.
319 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 An approaching warm front will be the focus for some showers and a few thunderstorms through the weekend.
135 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure will result in dry weather for most of the region today, though shower and thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon across Ohio and West Virginia as low pressure approaches. The low will move through tonight into Saturday spreading showers across mainly southern parts of the region.
(The rest of today ) Upper level low is slowly lifting northeast across the Central Plains this morning and, while this will lead to a gradual wakening of deep layer flow through the day, 12z sounding from OUN shows a very unstable airmass is in place.
137 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023 Region remains on the western periphery of low-level anticyclone over the FL Peninsula & Gulf of Mexico. 75 inch PWs, dewpoints will peak into the low 70s, while slightly more mixed to the east of I-55. dewpoints into mid 60s) while more cumulus field & dewpoints are peaking into the low 70s in southern, central & western areas. This ridge builds and will be centered over the area this weekend and will tend to favor subsidence.
1231 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper closed low will continue to lift to the north through the central and northern Plains during the day today. As this occurs a surface cold front will slide south into the area, reaching north central into west-central Oklahoma by afternoon, with a dryline stretching south from the front across southwest Oklahoma into southwest Texas.
358 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 A stacked low over Nebraska is projecting a stationary front over the UP today that has been the force driving some scattered light rain showers, otherwise local surface ridging is keeping weather mostly quiet in the short term. All of these factors have contributed to a wide range of temperatures for today's high, with the Superior shores struggling to get out of the low 50s in spots while the interior west could approach 80 again. Generally expecting lows to reach into the the 40s tonight, though as the low shifts slightly closer to the UP, the gradient tightens and stronger winds should keep fog at bay.
An upper level low in retrograde motion (thanks to a lot of cold air moving through its west side) will move in from the east, with the low center tracking through northern Utah and into Nevada by Sat night. The best chances during this period reside in the southern half of the forecast area until Sun night, when this low starts to track to the north, so that by Mon afternoon evey location in the forecast area has a threat of showers and thunderstorms. With the northerly component to the air, plus some cloud cover, temperatures will cool some on Sat, then as the low pulls away, some 5 to 8 deg F of warming from Sat to Sun.
Deep-layer shear will only be in the range of 25 knots, but all of that shear will be contained within the lowest 2 kilometers.
An upper ridge will continue to amplify over the Pacific Northwest resulting in a dry and stable northerly flow aloft over our area today. High pressure will bring mostly clear skies, with a few cumulus clouds developing over the central Idaho mountains this afternoon. An upper low moving E to W over northern Nevada will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening over SW Idaho.
254 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure over the region will give way to a weak and mainly dry cold frontal passage tonight and Saturday.
302 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 A weak area of low pressure will cross the Upper Ohio Valley region tonight, with scattered showers expected. Showers should taper off Saturday as the low exits.
The things we will need to keep an eye on will be the development of convective complexes over the central plains into TX associated with the upper level low centered over NE/KS. Ridging will increase heights over the region tomorrow but given that we should remain mostly cloudy like today, decided to scale back temperatures compared guidance.
As of 2 pm, WTM data shows a dryline running from near Lamesa to Jayton with a cold front running from near Muleshoe over to Paducah. However, shear remains on the low side with only around 20 kts effective bulk shear. As the low approaches the forecast area Saturday morning upper-level lift and isentropic ascent will increase leading to more widespread rainfall although there will be nothing overly heavy just a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall with occasional thunderstorms. With the rain and cloud cover temperatures tomorrow will be much cooler only in the 60s to lower 70s.
This morning's sounding looks to have lost its spike of dry air along 925 mb, but continues to be dry in the lower levels with a mere 0.
12z upper air data and satellite imagery depicts a weak mid level trough axis that is very slowly moving east of the area into southeast Alabama. This trough axis will be the focus for greatest convective coverage this afternoon, which will primarily be east of our area. Therefore, will maintain the highest rain chances 50-60% across our south central Alabama counties this afternoon. We lose the mid level focus for convection on Saturday as upper ridging very gradually builds across the area.
1131 AM MDT Fri May 12 2023 Key Messages: 1) Wrap around precipitation gradually ending this morning over the Pikes Peak region and Palmer Divide 2) Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will rebuild over the mountains this afternoon and evening, though intensity will be less than the past couple days Upper level low ever so slowly pulling away into nwrn KS/srn NE early this morning, with a fairly pronounced weakening of the wrap around band on the south side of the Palmer Divide since midnight.
1146 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 A warm front will move north bringing increasing chances for showers and even a few thunderstorms today into early tonight.
1222 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023 (The rest of today ) Upper level low is slowly lifting northeast across the Central Plains this morning and, while this will lead to a gradual wakening of deep layer flow through the day, 12z sounding from OUN shows a very unstable airmass is in place.
Look for warmer weather through the weekend inland.
Highs will reach the lower 90s and lows tonight in the 60s.
Severe Storms and Heavy Rainfall Across Portions of West Central Early this afternoon, a cold front was located across northwest Texas and pushing south. At the upper levels, a broad trough was located over northwest Mexico. As the evening progresses, more storms should develop on the cold front and dryline. This, combined with the slow movement and the low-level jet that will develop, these storms could easily dump 1-2 inches of rain across the area through the night. Tomorrow, expect the airmass to be much cooler in the wake of the storms, but the upper-level trough will remain in place over northwest Mexico.
17Z observations show a slow moving upper low in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska slowly exiting to the northeast providing some wrap around clouds mainly in our northwest zones. For Saturday a slow moving upper low in southeast New Mexico will bring some upper level forcing into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles by late afternoon. Saturday night should bring the best chance of rain for areas south of I-70 to the Oklahoma border as the upper level low and best forcing starts to move slightly northward.
131 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 As a warm front lifts north and moisture increases across the region expect to see an increasing potential for shower and thunderstorm development today into tonight.
1144 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure will result in dry weather for most of the region today, though shower and thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon across Ohio and West Virginia as low pressure approaches. The low will move through tonight into Saturday spreading showers across mainly southern parts of the region.
While the hail threat will dominate severe weather concerns this evening, a low, but nonzero tornado threat will also exist, especially with a modest increase in the low level jet early to mid evening.
231 PM MDT Fri May 12 2023 Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low over far Southwest Nebraska. North of the low widespread rainfall was occurring. For tonight the closed low will continue to move northeastward. Saturday will be dry as the cloud cover behind the closed low lingers over the forecast area.
The primary focus for convection has been just east of us, in association with a weak mid level trough axis. We lose the mid level focus for convection on Saturday as upper ridging very gradually builds across the area.
151 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 Clouds will increase tonight into Saturday as a warm front lifts towards the Commonwealth.
This morning's balloon sounding looks to have lost its spike of dry air along 925 mb, but continues to be dry in the lower levels with a mere 0.
Region remains on the western periphery of low-level anticyclone over the FL Peninsula & Gulf of Mexico. 75 inch PWs, dewpoints will peak into the low 70s, while slightly more mixed to the east of I-55. dewpoints into mid 60s) while more cumulus field & dewpoints are peaking into the low 70s in southern, central & western areas. This ridge builds and will be centered over the area this weekend and will tend to favor subsidence.
(This evening through Saturday Night) An active weather pattern will continue through the next 36 hours with ridging to our east and troughing to our west continuing to steer disturbances into the Four State Region. This pattern of return flow around the ridge will also maintain an ample environment for convective disturbances to continue propagating from the west. This activity will gradually wane after sunset and by tomorrow night, temperature minimums will be slightly cooler in the mid-to-upper 60s as a result.
100 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 A warm front will move north bringing increasing chances for showers and even a few thunderstorms today into early tonight.
Kept the highest chances over our Middle Tennessee group, given most of the activity per model output should move over this area. Given modest rain chances and clouds, have opted to reduce high temperatures a degree or two ranging from the high 70s to around 80. This said, a period of more direct sun (that does not appear likely) could easily help boost highs into the lower 80s.
Shower activity should continue into tomorrow on a weaker, more scattered basis, but persistent low lvl dry air brought in on northeast winds from high pressure to our north will fight hard to hold the rain off and precipitation may be reduced to sprinkles during the afternoon hours on Saturday. Clouds will linger, but highs may still be able to reach the low to mid 70s, especially if rain largely holds off.
(Tonight) A weak broad upper ridge was situated over the SE Lower-48 this afternoon. Within this ridge was plenty of moisture (at slightly lower elevations) advecting to the NW. Some of this moisture was moving around an upper low situated east of the Front Range. Resultant clouds over most of the area has led to cooler conditions in comparison to the past few days, with most areas having temperatures only in the lower 70s. Low temperatures otherwise will be mild ranging in the low/mid 60s.
215 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure will provide dry weather this weekend. Temperatures will run warmer than normal through Saturday, then there will be a gradual cooling trend following the passage of a cold front. A weak cold front over southern Ontario/Quebec could bring a spotty shower or two this evening to the Saint Lawrence Valley, perhaps sneaking into the North Country. High pressure builds back into the area Saturday behind the passage of the weak cold front. Temperatures still a bit above normal with most highs in the lower to mid 70s. A cool dry Canadian sourced air mass will continue to funnel in across the Lower Lakes.
257 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure will provide dry weather this weekend. Temperatures will run warmer than normal through Saturday, then there will be a gradual cooling trend following the passage of a cold front. A weak cold front over southern Ontario/Quebec could bring a spotty shower or two this evening to the Saint Lawrence Valley, perhaps sneaking into the North Country. High pressure builds back into the area Saturday behind the passage of the weak cold front. Temperatures still a bit above normal with most highs in the lower to mid 70s. A cool dry Canadian sourced air mass will continue to funnel in across the Lower Lakes.
1146 AM PDT Fri May 12 2023 Look for warmer weather through the weekend inland.
System was nearly stacked with surface reflection situated in s-central NE with attendant warm front extending into w-central IA and dry line extending through s-central NE into central KS. As the upper low lifts from NE into southeast SD, main threat for precip Saturday and Saturday night will be across the northern and eastern periphery of the CWA.
151 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure over the region will give way to a weak and mainly dry cold frontal passage tonight and Saturday.
Surface warm front marked by dewpoints in the 60s creeps northward late this morning resulting in a weak instability gradient near the Michigan/Ohio border. Dynamically unremarkable upper level pattern suggests limited potential for deep-layer ascent locally as a closed low over the west-central Plains churns upstream of resilient ridging extending through the Great Lakes.
and some slightly cooler air advects in from the northeast. SPC's Mesoanalysis PWAT plot shows the higher values of moisture nicely.
721 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 A weak wave of low pressure will pass south of Pennsylvania Saturday.
The lower atmosphere has become a bit more saturated now with light rain or drizzle showing up at some ob sites, primarily in central Wisconsin. Dry air remains in the low levels, but time sections show a well saturated mid-level, so expect cloudy skies to persist tonight. Lows will be in the low to middle 50s. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, slightly cooler near Lake Michigan. Saturday Night Through Friday A weakening cut-off low with weak upper flow over the central CONUS will keep chances for showers at times late this weekend.
542 PM MDT Fri May 12 2023 Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low over far Southwest Nebraska. North of the low widespread rainfall was occurring. For tonight the closed low will continue to move northeastward. Saturday will be dry as the cloud cover behind the closed low lingers over the forecast area.
Warming temperatures are expected through Saturday as onshore flow weakens beneath ridging aloft. However, cooler temperatures will persist near the coast with night through morning low clouds and fog.
634 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure over the region will give way to a weak and mainly dry cold frontal passage tonight and Saturday.
748 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 Several rounds of showers and storms continue into Friday night and Saturday before the warm frontal boundary shifts further south.
Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low over far Southwest Nebraska. North of the low widespread rainfall was occurring. For tonight the closed low will continue to move northeastward. Saturday will be dry as the cloud cover behind the closed low lingers over the forecast area.
511 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) An active weather pattern will continue through the next 36 hours with ridging to our east and troughing to our west continuing to steer disturbances into the Four State Region. This pattern of return flow around the ridge will also maintain an ample environment for convective disturbances to continue propagating from the west. This activity will gradually wane after sunset and by tomorrow night, temperature minimums will be slightly cooler in the mid-to-upper 60s as a result.
916 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 An approaching warm front will be the focus for some showers and a few thunderstorms through the weekend.
During the afternoon, an upper level low will move westward toward the area, bringing moisture and lift. An upper low moving E to W over northern Nevada will bring showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening over SW Idaho.
Currently - An Atlantic ridge off bodied mainly off the Carolina coast extends a ridge westward across the gulf coast. Meanwhile, lower to mid level ridging is stacked roughly above and maintaining lower to mid level dry air and inhibition. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate local weather patterns through the overnight period. The lower levels is expected to moisten somewhat. A ridge to our north will maintain moderate to fresh northeast to easterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
646 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 An approaching warm front will be the focus for some showers and a few thunderstorms through the weekend.
(This evening through Saturday) Showers and thunderstorms developed in the high SBCAPE zone in Mississippi and are propagating along with the mid and upper level flow. Added a mention of isolated severe storms to the HWO due to the High microburst potential. Little change in the synoptic pattern overnight but the mid level weak ridging moves further east over more of the area while a remnant weakness aloft becomes positioned over Southwest Georgia. Little change to the overall pattern will occur Saturday as weak ridging aloft persists while a weakness remains to our southeast.
951 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 Isolated thunderstorms and showers are developing along an eastward moving gust front due to high pressure which develop after the days thunderstorms over the western areas of our CWA.