Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
733 AM PDT Tue Jun 27 2023 A trough of low pressure over the western states will maintain below average high temperatures through Wednesday with night and morning coastal low clouds spreading farther into the valleys. Developing high pressure over California and Nevada will bring warming for late in the week through the weekend with weekend high temperatures around 10 degrees above average for the deserts and a few to around 5 degree above average elsewhere. That would put high temperatures in the lower deserts around 115 over the weekend and around 105 in the Apple and Lucerne Valleys.
Weak mid-level disturbance rounding the upper ridge early this morning is bringing an area of showers and thunderstorms across western and southern portions of the CWA.
(Rest of Today) With an upper level ridge building in from the west and a surface cold front to our south, dry and clear conditions are on tap for the rest of today.
750 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Aviation The vertically stacked low pressure system will slowly loosen its grip on Lower Michigan throughout the day. However, what is making this situation unusual and a bit more complicated is that near surface smoke in assocation with Canadian wildfires in the Quebec province is getting wrapped into the northwest section of this low pressure system. Expect warmer temperatures today, but we are chopping several degrees off numerical model guidance in anticipation of the haze keeping readings a bit cooler than we would normally experience. Weak ridging Wednesday night will quickly give way to a short wave riding east along the northern tier of states.
641 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 High pressure will bring rain free weather to the Mid-South today with highs mainly in the lower 90s. Showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front begins to push through the area.
Winds will decrease late in the week and the temperatures will increase as a ridge settles over the Southwest, with the hottest temperatures of the year expected this weekend. It's a quiet, mostly clear night across northern Arizona with light breezes keeping temperatures a bit warmer than last night in most areas.
610 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 (Today) Satellite imagery this morning shows a low pressure system spinning across the eastern Great Lakes with a cold front draped along much of the East Coast and arcing back across the southern Gulf States. To our west, upper level ridging over the Plains is producing several clusters of thunderstorms riding along the ridge. The Tennessee Valley sits on the eastern extent of the upper ridge and as a result somewhat drier air is filtering in from the north and west as evident with surface dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s this morning. With the local forecast area north of the aforementioned front, expect another sunny and mild day with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 80s in the higher terrain across NE AL and southern middle Tennessee and lower 90s elsewhere.
Composite satellite analysis places a fractured mid-level trough east of the Florida Peninsula, with a broad ridge of high pressure and associated anticylonic flow slowly expanding eastward in the Gulf of Mexico.
Mostly cloudy skies and a few showers and thunderstorms linger across eastern Shasta, eastern Tehama and northern Plumas counties near the center of the weakening closed low.
Between the trof to the east and building ridge to the west, we'll see the ridge take over predominant influence increasingly thereafter. Wednesday still looks like a transitional day where we move into the lower 90s as the heart of the upper high shifts into Louisiana.
A broad upper level trough will remain the main weather influencer through that time, bringing daily chances of afternoon/evening thunderstorms with seasonal temperatures and breezy afternoons.
627 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night) The forecast basically remains the same (Heat! Heat! Heat!) as mid/ upper level ridging dominates not only our area but also a majority of the state. Expecting high temperatures in the lower 90s at the beaches and in an upper 90s to lower 100s range inland for both today and Wednesday.
The dome of high pressure that has been in control will be generally overhead today through Wednesday as it shifts slowly to the east. While this will not help the high temperatures all that much, it will make the heat index values slightly lower than we've been dealing with over the past several weeks, with max heat index values expected to range from 110-114.
Otherwise, temperatures along the coast will remain slightly below normal, while across the interior, much warmer weather is expected during mid to late week. High pressure ridging from the northwest will gradually build in behind the trough and reside over the region over the next several days.
The strongest storms and the highest amount of rainfall is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. As the upper level trough dips further over the Northland, better forcing and severe weather parameters will follow for Wednesday.
(Today through Wednesday) A surface cold front has made progress into Middle Georgia at this hour with drier air gradually filtering into north Georgia behind it. The forecast area will remain along the eastern periphery of the expanding upper ridge centered over the Arklatex region. While models continue to signal a potential MCS working southward around the ridge on Wednesday, current indications support a track to our west across the Mississippi Valley, so PoPs will remain nil through the period for our area. Temperatures will gradually warm from today into Wednesday as the ridge expands eastward with temperatures ranging through the low to mid 90s for all areas outside the mountains.
High pressure will serve as the dominant feature today as it takes hold over the Upper Midwest. Longwave ridging over the central U.
745 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm are expected to continue through tonight as low pressure slowly moves across the Great Lakes region.
Hot and warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. Much above normal temperatures will continue today although likely a couple degree cooler than yesterday as the center of the high moves a little eastward. Temperatures cool another couple of degrees Wednesday onward as the high moves into Texas and troughing sets up to the west and north. Thanks to the trough winds will be breezy each afternoon leading to elevated fire weather conditions.
439 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Current surface analysis shows high pressure to the east of the region, with frontal boundary near the lee of the central Rockies. Upper level analysis shows broad ridging over the Plains, with low pressure over the Great Lakes and a trough across the west coast region. Disturbances passing over and through northern portions of the ridge are bringing showers and storms to much of the northern/central Plains. Unsettled weather will continue at times through much of the week as ridge gradually moves east of the area and active west to southwest flow aloft brings additional disturbances across the region.
Meanwhile, the upper air flow will transition to a more zonal flow pattern Wednesday as an upper trough east across the Great Lakes migrates east and a belt of westerlies overspreads the region north of a strong upper ridge over the southern plains. There is general consensus for higher potential for storms near/north of I-90, or especially I-94, where mid-level temps will be a bit cooler and forcing from the trough may be greater during the later afternoon/evening.
202 AM PDT Tue Jun 27 2023 A rapid warming trend will take place this week due to high pressure aloft.
High pressure will bring rain free weather to the Mid-South today with highs mainly in the lower 90s. Showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front begins to push through the area.
715 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 A cold front will move through the area by tonight. High pressure then builds in behind it through mid to late week. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A cold front will move into eastern NC by evening and will combine with plenty of instability (MLCAPES above 2000 j/kg) to produce scattered thunderstorms especially over NE North Carolina.
705 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Today, a mid level trough will be sliding off into the western Atlantic, while a mid level ridge over the Southern Plains and the Gulf of Mexico will slowly try to build in from the west. With decreased coverage of showers and thunderstorms, this will start a trend towards even warmer temperatures with less cloud cover and more and sunshine. High temperatures will generally rise into the lower 90s across most of South Florida today. Tomorrow, the mid level ridge will build a bit further east, and usher drier air in over South Florida (PWATs generally 15-25th percentile). High temperatures will yet again be in the low 90s, with heat index values ranging from 100 to 105.
and Wednesday Showers ended across the region by midnight as low pressure continued to shift east through the Great Lakes. High pressure was building into the western part of the forecast area, and resulting in patchy fog development in NC WI. Weak surface and upper level ridging will bring dry conditions, and hazy sunshine should boost temperatures into the 70s and lower 80s.
An upper low over the Great Lakes is filtering in drier air so our feel-like temperatures are just about equal to our actual air temperatures. Highs today and Wednesday will be in the low 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s.
500 mb ridge is anchored over texas with 500 mb jet on top of the ridge thru South Dakota and Nebraska.
Summertime conditions and chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to the region late this week through the weekend as ridging slowly builds into the region. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the upper 80s north to the low 90s south with overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.
606 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 (Today and tonight) Today remains the hottest day of the week courtesy of a dome of high pressure at 500 mb shifting from the Permian Basin into north-central TX by this evening. It's not often we see breezy winds during the summer with such hot temperatures, but such is the case today as a healthy SW gradient flow emerges along the NW periphery of this ridge. In addition to occasionally strong winds in places such as Caprock Canyons State Park, low temps in these areas may need to be bumped up further as these rotors often keep temps much warmer.
959 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the area today and an upper level low pressure system moves off to the east. High pressure and a drier, more seasonable airmass will settle into the region for Wednesday. Cyclonic flow around the upper low provides a northwesterly flow regime through a large depth of the troposphere. Cloud coverage will slowly erode from southwest to northeast as the upper low travels eastward and pulls the moisture along with it. Lows tonight will be in the 50s with highs on Wednesday in the low to mid 80s.
755 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Upper level troughing extends southward from the Great Lakes along the eastern seaboard to the east coast of Florida. This high pressure will remain over the gulf through the week keeping an onshore wind flow and will also keep the effects of the frontal boundary well to our north as the front moves eastward by the middle of the week. Above average temperatures will continue through the week with daytime highs topping out in the low to mid 90's and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70's. Pleasant weather can be expected across the eastern gulf waters as high pressure remains over the area. Rain chances will be on the low side the first half of the week, then increasing for the latter part of the week.
As expected, a broken cumulus cloud line formed along portions of the Lower and Middle Keys in the late morning and early afternoon hours, with some communities between Summerland Key and Marathon picking up between a few hundredths to around one quarter of an inch of rainfall. Available surface observations are currently registering in the lower 90s.
207 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 A s/w over the High Plains will continue to track across the forecast area tonight. The juxtaposition of a sfc trof, and the aforementioned ingredients will likely lead to expanding convection over SW SD toward evening, some of those storms likely severe with hail and wind the main threats, although a brief tornado can not be ruled out.
At the upper levels, a trough will continue to move east of the area while the ridge continues to slowly nose in from the west. High temps today will be in the lower 90s, and low to mid 90s on Wednesday. Temps remain mild overnight with lows tonight only dropping down to the lower 70s around the lake and upper 70s close to the coasts.
Although the upper level ridge will slide east into the eastern Texas/western Louisiana region, and we will be a couple degrees cooler, temperatures will still push into the Excessive Heat Warning realm tomorrow for areas along and north of a San Angelo to San Saba line, where at least parts of these counties will reach high temperature readings of 105 or hotter.
1233 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Current upper air analysis shows the upper ridge east of the forecast area, nearing the Great Lakes region, with a tilted trough over the PAC NW, and another trough over the New England region. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats for today, though can't rule out an isolated tornado in far southern SD where the lower LCL's and better low level helicity is located. Western US trough will start to move east across the Rockies and into the Plains late week, with additional chances for showers and storms. Over the weekend, mild ridging builds over the northern plains, and temps warm up to the 80s for the latter half of the weekend, with likely a break in precipitation potential.
The upper low/weakening trough associated with the continued mountain thunderstorm chances over the last several days, will meander east today through Wednesday as ridging from the eastern Pacific begins to build into NorCal.
A dome of high pressure at mid to upper levels will prevail over the Southern Plains/Texas, with the center of this high slowly moving overhead later tonight into Wednesday.
The lower dewpoints will keep heat index values under criteria, but it's still going to feel like a normal hot summer day. The heat ridge will begin to build eastward on Wednesday with continued uncertainty in relation to MCS development off to our north and west. Otherwise, as the heat ridge builds east, we'll begin our period of very hot and oppressive conditions.
Other energy was rotating around the upper low to the west into our western/central zones late today and this evening and should result in scattered to numerous showers/thundestorms.
230 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Areas of fog and smoke will be possible into tonight with lows into the low to mid 50s.
1049 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Current surface analysis shows high pressure to the east of the region, with frontal boundary near the lee of the central Rockies. Upper level analysis shows broad ridging over the Plains, with low pressure over the Great Lakes and a trough across the west coast region. Disturbances passing over and through northern portions of the ridge are bringing showers and storms to much of the northern/central Plains. Unsettled weather will continue at times through much of the week as ridge gradually moves east of the area and active west to southwest flow aloft brings additional disturbances across the region.
Precipitation chances will diminish through the evening as the axis of a mid-level ridge begins to shift toward the region. Dry, hot weather is expected through the remainder of the short-term period as a rather strong, anomalous ridge positions overhead by Wednesday.
310 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 A cold front will move through the area tonight. High pressure then builds in behind it through mid to late week with very warm temperatures and only low chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Expect the severe threat to wane early this evening with the loss of heating and the passage of a weak cold front as the mid level trough pivots offshore.
The extreme heating due to the subsidence attributed to the ridge and low level flow veered more to the south should result in better mixing of dewpoints compared to previous days. The center of the mid to upper high will shift a bit farther to the east Wednesday which should reduce subsidence over our CWA and allow for slight less hot temperatures.
ARS High pressure will bring rain free weather to the Mid-South today with highs mainly in the lower 90s. Showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front begins to push through the area.
Mostly clear skies (there's a few clouds on the Plateau) have allowed temperatures to climb into the low 80s already, on their way into the upper 80s and low 90s. An upper low over the Great Lakes is filtering in drier air so our feel-like temperatures are just about equal to our actual air temperatures. Highs today and Wednesday will be in the low 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s.
Most of the region has already been under the influence of a potent upper-level ridge, which is only expected to build further over the next 36-hours.
1228 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 (Rest of Today) With an upper level ridge building in from the west and a surface cold front to our south, dry and clear conditions are on tap for the rest of today.
A few light showers remain possible in our eastern counties through this evening before the upper low pushes eastward.
A high pressure ridge is sliding eastward across Iowa toward Wisconsin and Illinois, with light winds eventually giving way to southeasterly return flow. Thick smoke from Canadian wild fires advecting down the leading edge of the ridge has plagued much of Iowa today, especially eastern sections, and will likely linger into Wednesday. Meanwhile, a deep thermal ridge is moving slowly eastward over the High Plains, with its axis expected to cross Iowa tonight.
(This evening through Wednesday night) The H5 ridge over northern portions of Texas is forecast to gradually migrate eastward toward our area through the short term period.
However, ridging across the central CONUS continues to nudge eastward. Wednesday will be dry as ridging presence increases and brings about the start of a warming trend.
However, even with the below normal PWATs in place, a few storms will still be possible across our southern interior areas and some activity will also be possible in the Nature Coast this evening as low-level southwest flow increases ahead of a cold front that is sinking slowly southward across the southeast US. Moisture will be on the increase overnight as a weak cold front continues to slowly approach the area from the north.
An MCS is expected to form off the higher terrain in western Kansas / eastern Colorado and make its way eastward. Tomorrow, the ridge will keep our area dry, hot, and sunny.
1249 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 (Today and tonight) Today remains the hottest day of the week courtesy of a dome of high pressure at 500 mb shifting from the Permian Basin into north-central TX by this evening. It's not often we see breezy winds during the summer with such hot temperatures, but such is the case today as a healthy SW gradient flow emerges along the NW periphery of this ridge. In addition to occasionally strong winds in places such as Caprock Canyons State Park, low temps in these areas may need to be bumped up further as these rotors often keep temps much warmer.
Still dry in the lower levels beginning with surface dewpoints in the 30s.
333 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Low pressure moving through continues to keep the threat for afternoon showers and thunderstorms region wide.
Tonight and Wednesday Synopsis: Weak high pressure, centered over the western Great Lakes early this afternoon, will shift east to the eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday afternoon.
1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night) The forecast basically remains the same (Heat! Heat! Heat!) as mid/ upper level ridging dominates not only our area but also a majority of the state. Expecting high temperatures in the lower 90s at the beaches and in an upper 90s to lower 100s range inland for both today and Wednesday.
The highest uncertainty in the forecast remains over the chance of the lower valleys peaking above 100 degrees to start off the month of July. Forecast models are trending slightly cooler, so confidence over the first 100-degree day of the summer happening soon is decreasing. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will expand across Eastern Oregon and the higher terrain of southwest Idaho on Tuesday afternoon.
Mild temperatures through midweek will become quite hot for the end of the week and over the July 4th holiday weekend as high pressure builds overhead. Our first heatwave of the summer season nears as high pressure aloft will build overhead during the second half of the work week.
The main chance for isolated severe storms on Wednesday afternoon will be near and east of the Buffalo Ridge into parts of northwest IA.
248 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 A weak, moist low pressure circulation will continue to allow showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Northern Rockies through Wednesday.
202 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Aviation The vertically stacked low pressure system will slowly loosen its grip on Lower Michigan throughout the day. However, what is making this situation unusual and a bit more complicated is that near surface smoke in association with Canadian wildfires in the Quebec province is getting wrapped into the northwest section of this low pressure system. Expect warmer temperatures today, but we are chopping several degrees off numerical model guidance in anticipation of the haze keeping readings a bit cooler than we would normally experience. Weak ridging Wednesday night will quickly give way to a short wave riding east along the northern tier of states.
This higher cloud cover has hindered temperature gains this afternoon with highs remaining in the low 70s. There is some uncertainty with how concentrated the smoke layer will be tonight as subsidence builds beneath upstream ridging. For the first few days of the period, central Indiana will sit on the periphery of an upper level high that will be centered near the ArkLaTex region.
Showers and thunderstorms will move across western sections of the Mid-South overnight and into Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching warm front. Behind the warm front, increasing humidity and very warm temperatures will produce Heat Index values above 105 degrees on Wednesday for portions of east Arkansas and northwest Mississippi.
252 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday) A dry and warm short term is on tap for north and central Georgia as the upper ridge centered over the Arklatex region slowly shifts eastward through Wednesday. Temperatures gradually warm across North and Central GA through tomorrow as the ridge expands eastward over the CWA, with temperatures reaching into the low to mid 90s.
Temps are in the mid to upper 80s (oh, to live on the Plateau -- they're at 77 at forecast time) and dew points are manageable in the low 60s. Strong upper level ridging that has brought awful afternoon temperatures to the southern Plains over the the last several days is headed this way.