Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
519 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Key Messages: -Cold front brings much colder and drier air today -Cloud cover today diminishes heading into this evening -Breezy and cold Thanksgiving Day Look for much colder temperatures today as reinforcing CAA pushes southward into the area. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to middle 20s in most areas, with upper teens in the northern Devils Lake Basin along the International Border.
Key Messages: - Warmer today, much colder Thursday As of 3AM CST, we have some high clouds moving across the region. Dry conditions are expected today with slightly warmer temperatures. We will still be in an upper level ridge pattern today, but this transitions to west northwest flow for Thanksgiving Day. Our warm weather will be ending today as some much colder air moves in Thursday behind a cold front. Although, a deeper dive into cluster analysis does show differences in just how amplified the trough gets over southern Canada into the Great Lakes. These differences influence whether or not colder air is able to penetrate a bit further south into the region (more amplified solutions), or if we stay on the warmer end of solutions like the CMC is heavily showing for days 6 and 7.
406 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Key Messages: -Cold front brings much colder and drier air today -Cloud cover today diminishes heading into this evening -Breezy and cold Thanksgiving Day Look for much colder temperatures today as reinforcing CAA pushes southward into the area. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to middle 20s in most areas, with upper teens in the northern Devils Lake Basin along the International Border.
Low level moisture associated with the upper low is wrapping southward across much of the Deep South, resulting in widespread cloud cover across Central Alabama. Strong northwesterly flow is advecting cool, drier air into area behind the exiting cold front. For today, the upper level trough axis will shift eastward with drier mid and low level air arriving. Highs today will be in the 50s, with a few locations in the far southeast in the lower 60s.
Dry conditions, warmer temperatures, and lighter winds are expected for today. With high pressure centered just off the southern California coast resulting in northwest flow in the upper-levels, high clouds are moving in due to the increase in moisture. For Thanksgiving Day, the weather pattern begins to change as a trough of low pressure makes its way southward from the Pacific Northwest. Daytime temperatures look to remain near average, but begin a cooling trend as heights fall in response to the incoming trough. By the looks of it using both ensemble and deterministic model guidances, this potential trough is forecast to be on the weaker side with weak to moderate upper- level support and limited moisture availability. Much of the moisture associated with this low pressure system will likely be confined to Utah and the Rocky Mountain region.
537 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 (Today) Cloudy conditions continue this morning, courtesy of an upper low moving east across western Tennessee and SW Kentucky. Most of the moisture is very shallow with this upper low and between the 280K and 285K surfaces aloft. Models show isentropic lift continuing at these levels as the upper low to our north and it's associated longwave trough axis moves east today. Near and east of the I-65 corridor though with strong low level cold air advection seen in models today and most prevalent cloud cover, highs should be cooler than NBM indicates. Further west with some sunshine possible highs could reach the lower 50s.
450 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 (Today) Tranquil weather is expected to prevail across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure prevails over the area.
522 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 (Today and tonight) As of 3:30 AM CST, we have multiple observations across the area that are at, or around, freezing. Being wedged between a low pressure system of to the east and a ridge off to the west, we are largely going to see benign weather across the region.
236 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: A ridge running from California northeast into Wyoming has toppled over with the crest forming a chinook that is dropping south in Colorado. Behind it a northwest flow is set up over the Montana and Alberta with a strong trough and underlying cold front about to pass the International Border. Further upstream int eh northwest flow another ridge has developed over the Gulf of Alaska and runs onshore over the Alaska Panhandle and northern British Columbia. Today through tonight: Cold front will jog across the boarder by mid-morning and continue trucking south.
This weekend will be characterized by cooler temperatures and breezy north winds.
(Today through Thursday) The cold front moved out over the gulf yesterday and cool air has been slowly filtering in behind it. This will continue today keeping high temps well into the lower 60s.
A storm system will then move to our northeast over the weekend, resulting in cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and a slight chance of showers. In the upper levels a ridge is in place centered off the west coast of Baja. Late Thanksgiving day the upper air pattern changes as a closed low moves into the Great Basin.
- Slight warm-up today before a shift to cooler, but near average conditions. Highs today will widely range from the mid 50s in southwestern MN to the low 40s in western WI where cloud cover will be more abundant. There is also a marginal fire weather concern across southern MN this afternoon as RH values will reach the lower 30s combined with increased wind speeds, and warmer temperatures. Unlike today's highs, Thursday's highs will struggle to pass beyond the freezing mark during the day and lows ranging in the teens and even a few single digits possible in western MN.
A few low-lying areas may briefly reach the freezing mark, but will quickly rebound once the sun is up. In the upper levels, a cutoff low is located to our southwest over Mexico with another trough over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley expected to continue eastward through the day. As mentioned previously, if cloud cover is a bit slower to move over our northern locations, specifically the Hill Country, some locations may reach the freezing mark just before sunrise. Some very light rain may be seen during the day as this upper low moves across the area, but most the moisture is confined to the mid-levels around 700mb, so any precipitation will have a lot of dry air to overcome before making it to the ground.
Upper ridge in place across the western CONUS does break down today, with flow across the region becoming more westerly.
As the high retreats the pressure gradient across the Keys is slackening, allowing for winds to gradually diminish. There will be a minor surge in winds associated with the frontal passage although it will be confined mainly to the waters west of the Seven Mile Bridge.
Forecast soundings show a shallow saturated layer and the best lift within the trough swings across the northern half of the forecast area. Heading into tonight, after the passing trough across the region, showers will persist into the evening with some of the area in the north and along the higher elevations may see a bit of snow mix in.
Discussion: A mild and dry day is expected today, with southwest wind and an upper-level ridge building in, temperatures should climb easily into the 50s. A cold front is forecast to swing through the area Thursday morning, leading to slightly cooler temperatures and breezy northerly wind for Thanksgiving. A slow moving trough will move across the Rockies and enter the Plains by this weekend.
A short wave trough moving over the region this morning and today will cause some showers today. The timing of the precipitation will be the biggest factor in whether or not there is freezing rain, snow, or rain. For portions of Lincoln County, MT, valley inversions may allow some freezing rain to fall this morning for an hour or two. Models have trended further south and east with the position of the low, but we still expect Lemhi County, ID and Deer Lodge and Silver Bow counties in MT to be affected.
501 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Current observations show that temperatures at most locations have dropped into the 30s with sub freezing temps in the northern Permian Basin and Davis Mountains. Lows tonight drop back into the 30s but should be a few degrees warmer than this morning.
We continue to monitor the potential for some isolated showers on Thanksgiving morning/early afternoon as a fairly robust midlevel trough approaches from the west.
530 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Chilly and mostly dry conditions will prevail for the next several days, with morning lows approaching freezing starting Thanksgiving morning.
(Today) Cloudy conditions continue this morning, courtesy of an upper low moving east across western Tennessee and SW Kentucky. Most of the moisture is very shallow with this upper low and between the 280K and 285K surfaces aloft. Models show isentropic lift continuing at these levels as the upper low to our north and it's associated longwave trough axis moves east today. Near and east of the I-65 corridor though with strong low level cold air advection seen in models today and most prevalent cloud cover, highs should be cooler than NBM indicates. Further west with some sunshine possible highs could reach the lower 50s.
401 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: A ridge running from California northeast into Wyoming has toppled over with the crest forming a chinook that is dropping south in Colorado. Behind it a northwest flow is set up over the Montana and Alberta with a strong trough and underlying cold front about to pass the International Border. Further upstream int eh northwest flow another ridge has developed over the Gulf of Alaska and runs onshore over the Alaska Panhandle and northern British Columbia. Today through tonight: Cold front will jog across the boarder by mid-morning and continue trucking south.
Cloudy and damp start to the day with lingering drizzle/mist, but improvements are on the horizon as the upper level trough axis is forecast to sweep through by late morning. Cold advection will be short-lived and modest today, owing to ridge amplification upstream that barricades the stronger Canadian cold pool from diving south until later this week. 850 mb temperatures only briefly touching -4 to -6 C ensure daytime highs in the low to mid 40s, average for this time of year. The ridge axis moves in tonight with similarly modest warm advection on its heels, reinforcing and lowering the inversion to about 4. Its surface reflection drifts east across Ontario and drags a cold front south across the cwa between roughly 15z-00z (10am-8pm local time) Thanksgiving Day.
1032 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 As the low pressure pulls out of the Great Lakes today, a high pressure will then build back into the region for mid week, bringing drier air and near seasonable temperatures. A dry cold front will push through the area later Thursday with below normal temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend. In the mid levels a slow moving trough axis eventually clears to the southeast this evening. Low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south provide winds around 10 mph from the southwest. A dry cold front approaches northwest locations toward evening, with winds shifting out of the northwest. How long these clouds linger will dictate the high temperature for Thursday afternoon. Cold front will push through the area on Thursday night.
High pressure will build into the western High Plains Thanksgiving Day, keeping a slight pressure gradient over this FA. For now, went a little cooler than NBM in coordination with adjacent offices.
1100 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 (Today and tonight) As of 3:30 AM CST, we have multiple observations across the area that are at, or around, freezing. Being wedged between a low pressure system of to the east and a ridge off to the west, we are largely going to see benign weather across the region.
314 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 Two weak areas of low pressure will consolidate into a single, stronger storm along the Coast of Maine late today and tonight.
Gusty northwest winds in the wake of the cold front will linger into Thursday morning.
1130 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 The latest GOES East Water Vapor Imagery depicts a compact upper low over Southern Appalachia, with a broad ridge over much of the west CONUS, and northwest flow over the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 1027mb high pressure center was analyzed over Texas with a low pressure system over Long Island with a trailing cold front just off the eastern seaboard. AC3 Chilly and mostly dry conditions will prevail for the next several days, with morning lows approaching freezing starting Thanksgiving morning.
Dry on Thursday with slightly warmer temperatures. Discussion: Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis this afternoon shows an upper level low moving across the Southern Appalachians with northwest flow behind it. This upper low has kept cloud cover in place today and produced scattered rain showers earlier this morning. For the remainder of the afternoon, generally expect mentionable PoPs to remain across the higher terrain regions with a gradual decrease in PoPs into the evening hours. Winds will relax overnight as high pressure at the surface builds into the region. Clearing skies are expected on Thanksgiving Day as high pressure remains in place. Temperatures will be a bit warmer with highs expected to reach the mid 50's across most locations.
1122 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Current observations show that temperatures at most locations have dropped into the 30s with sub freezing temps in the northern Permian Basin and Davis Mountains. Lows tonight drop back into the 30s but should be a few degrees warmer than this morning.
1205 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 (Today through Thursday) The cold front moved out over the gulf yesterday and cool air has been slowly filtering in behind it. This will continue today keeping high temps well into the lower 60s.
The leading edge of a low pressure system and associated precipitation were working southeast into the CNTRL mountains this afternoon.
1030 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 The latest GOES East Water Vapor Imagery depicts a compact upper low over Southern Appalachia, with a broad ridge over much of the west CONUS, and northwest flow over the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 1027mb high pressure center was analyzed over Texas with a low pressure system over Long Island with a trailing cold front just off the eastern seaboard. AC3 Chilly and mostly dry conditions will prevail for the next several days, with morning lows approaching freezing starting Thanksgiving morning.
(This evening through Thursday night) It's been a pleasant fall day for the Panhandles, thanks to weak high pressure aloft and dry air in place.
350 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 A high pressure ridge briefly builds in tonight and for Thanksgiving before a cold front moves east across the area tomorrow night.
As such, and despite mostly clear skies overnight, temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer than last night with temperatures expected to drop into the low- mid 30s. The low aloft will have very little, if any, impact the region except maybe increase mid/upper-level high clouds in the afternoon and evening. At the surface, high pressure will settle across the southern CONUS, resulting in generally light to moderate southerly winds through the day. Temperatures will warm up into the lower-mid 60s across the region -- a few degrees above seasonal average. These warm temps will be short-lived as a shallow cold front advances south into NE OK beginning late Thursday afternoon or early evening.
Tonight, an upper trough will drop in from the Alaska Panhandle and this will result in enhanced precipitation in portions of Lake County.
/NEW/ /Today through Thursday Afternoon/ A tranquil day is expected today as post-frontal high pressure continues to move across the region. /Issued 213 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023/ /Thursday Night Onward/ The upper low over Southeast Texas will transition to an open wave as it ejects off to the northeast Thursday night, bringing an end to any light precipitation lingering across East Texas. Meanwhile, a larger scale upper low over the Great Basin will be our next feature to keep an eye on and likely our next weather- producer.
Though showers associated with the frontal passage have pushed east, a reinforcing 500 mb trough will move through later this afternoon, bringing enough forcing to initiate a few showers along mainly the northern Midlands. Despite the sun, the airmass will be cooler with high temperatures in the low 60s. 75"-1" range and lows dip into the low to mid 40s. The upper trough will progress through the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys as it continues to degrade before passing to our northwest.
328 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 A cold front will exit the area leaving a dry and cool Thanksgiving day ahead.
(This afternoon through Thursday Night) Upper level trough to our east continues to lift out of the region. The low levels clouds are slowly breaking up in the northwest and we will slowly see them break up in western areas this evening into the overnight. The low clouds will likely remain in western areas overnight. We are looking at a cool night also with lows in the 30s, once again if clouds remain thicker temperatures will remain a bit warmer but will still fall into the 30s. With the approaching short wave we will see winds shift to the south which will push warmer air back into the region and highs will reach the mid 50s to near 60.
354 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 Low pressure will shift east as high pressure builds back into the region overnight into Thursday. This high will bring drier air and near seasonable temperatures. A dry cold front will push south through the area later Thursday with below normal temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend. Surface trof and low level cyclonic flow has kept clouds across the eastern two thirds of ILN/s FA this afternoon. Temperatures tonight will fall to lows generally in the lower 30s. Also, based on clouds have used a CONSSHORT for temperatures which was a little cooler in the east, where clouds are expected to hold longer. Low temperatures to range from the upper 20s north to the lower 30s south.
Conditions are expected to remain dry as this cold front passes. The cold front is expected to move through right around dawn on Thanksgiving. Cold air advection will start to kick in behind the cold front which will cause the overnight temperatures Thursday to fall into the low 20s to teens.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) A frosty start to the day was seen across a large portion of the region this morning with widespread near to below freezing temperatures.
Going forecast highs leaned toward the warmer end of the guidance and will not deviate from this for the update. As such, still expecting highs a few degrees below average for this time of year in the low to mid 50s. Lacy (Today) Tranquil weather is expected to prevail across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure prevails over the area.
Winds were pretty light ahead of the low, but were already gusting from the north at 15 to 25 mph behind the low (over northeast North Dakota). As the low continues to push to the east, the afternoon will continue to be partly to mostly cloudy with gusty north winds. Key Messages: -Cold front brings much colder and drier air today -Cloud cover today diminishes heading into this evening -Breezy and cold Thanksgiving Day Look for much colder temperatures today as reinforcing CAA pushes southward into the area. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to middle 20s in most areas, with upper teens in the northern Devils Lake Basin along the International Border.
Highs will be in the low 40s. The cold front should move through around dawn on Thanksgiving and bring winds around to northwesterly. Highs again should reach the low 40s on Thanksgiving under mostly clear skies, with the cold advection behind the front not really being truly appreciated until Thursday night, when lows will drop into the teens.
Lows could still approach freezing in some locations though most places should see overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. An upper low across South Texas will transition into more of an upper wave overnight into tomorrow.
1247 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 As the low pressure pulls out of the Great Lakes today, a high pressure will then build back into the region for mid week, bringing drier air and near seasonable temperatures. A dry cold front will push through the area later Thursday with below normal temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend. In the mid levels a slow moving trough axis eventually clears to the southeast this evening. Low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south provide winds around 10 mph from the southwest. A dry cold front approaches northwest locations toward evening, with winds shifting out of the northwest. How long these clouds linger will dictate the high temperature for Thursday afternoon. Cold front will push through the area on Thursday night.
Forecast soundings show a shallow saturated layer and the best lift within the trough swings across the northern half of the forecast area. Heading into tonight, after the passing trough across the region, few if any showers that develop will be dissipating. In fact, the main concern turns to the higher terrain overnight as the we lose much of the low level moisture across the area. Temperatures drop into the lower 30s overnight, thankfully the cloud cover in place will keep temperatures from dropping further. Thus with some weak lift left and dry air above the inversion and shallow moisture profile, there stand a chance of patchy freezing drizzle. However, if freezing drizzle does occur the impact may need something more.
A cold front stretches southwest across the Gulf of Mexico, with the leading edge nearing Tampa. Closer to the Keys, southeast winds average 9 to 11 knots at the Reef, dewpoints are in the lower 70s, and temperatures are in the mid 80s. The cold front will make slow and steady progress southward tonight, with breezes collapsing across the Keys. Unfortunately, the cooler and drier air will not make it here, and in fact, dewpoints will remain near or above 70 for the next five or six days.
150 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2023 Afternoon Discussion: Today through tonight: A cold front is dropping through the region today, bringing with it scattered snow showers and flurries through about midnight.
256 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 (This afternoon through Thursday) Cold front has moved well east of the CWA and is now just offshore the SE coast of the US. High pressure will continue to build in from the west overnight. In the mid levels, an upper low is situated across far western NC and will move east through the remainder of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows widespread cold air stratocu on the backside of the cold front.
Morning low temperatures expected below freezing then warming during the day to the low to mid 40s. A dry cold front will pass over the area in its wake. Clouds will fill in over the rest of the area Thursday night as temperatures drop back down into the low 30s by the lake and the 20s for inland areas.
/96 (Now through Thursday) An upper trough will swing through the region today, with flow aloft gradually becoming northwesterly by this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure will build into the area in the wake of a cold front that passed through the area yesterday. The surface pressure gradient will relax a bit through the day as the center of the high moves into the Mississippi Valley, though until then, winds will be a bit breezy. This will allow for persistent CAA for much of the day, with highs not much warmer than the current temperatures as of 2 am.