Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Conditions improve Sunday into Christmas Day, as high pressure develops. The center of the low pressure system responsible for the last few day of showery weather across Arizona had moved into New Mexico durin the mid afternoon hours. Over the next 24 hours this low will continue to weaken and head eastward with warming daytime highs, cold overnight lows, light winds and mainly clear skies heading our way for Christmas Day and the work week. As the low continues to jet eastward showers will come to an end after midnight as a drier air mass spreads across the area. Look for slightly warmer daytime temperatures under mainly sunny skies as a drier and milder northwesterly flow sets up across northern Arizona. High pressure will domintate the weather pattern with dry conditions and warmer daytime temperatures.
STP A quieter period of weather is in store beginning Christmas Day, as an amplifying ridge builds over the Rockies. The ridge amplification is aided by a deepening closed-low pressure system over the Central Plains.
309 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 * Fog looks to return overnight as a warm front approaches the area with more warm moist air.
Conditions improve Sunday into Christmas Day, as high pressure develops. The center of the low pressure system responsible for the last few day of showery weather across Arizona had moved into New Mexico during the mid afternoon hours. Over the next 24 hours this low will continue to weaken and head eastward with warming daytime highs, cold overnight lows, light winds and mainly clear skies heading our way for Christmas Day and the work week. As the low continues to jet eastward showers will come to an end after midnight as a drier air mass spreads across the area. Look for slightly warmer daytime temperatures under mainly sunny skies as a drier and milder northwesterly flow sets up across northern Arizona. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern with dry conditions and warmer daytime temperatures.
Current 500mb analysis shows a trough centered along the AZ/NM border, which is inducing surface cyclogenesis across the Colorado High Plains. Due to both the timing of this front and the widespread cloudiness/rain across the region ahead of it, instability will likely not be high enough for severe/rotating storms across our area of responsibility and should only allow for general embedded thunderstorms despite sufficient shear within the lowest 1km. The polar front will then bring cooler temperatures and breezier winds overnight, with lows reaching the upper 30s to upper 40s for Christmas Day.
911 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2023 High pressure will remain east of the region through Sunday.
By late day, cooler air will begin moving in from the west.
(Tonight) Mid/high clouds continue to infiltrate the region late this evening as an upper trough swings into the lower Mississippi Valley.
547 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 (This evening through Sunday) As of mid afternoon, the closed upper low across the southwestern US has begun to transition to an open wave as it merges with northern stream energy dropping southward across the northern Rockies. The upper trough axis is currently centered across central New Mexico, with large scale ascent ahead of the trough now spreading into the panhandles and western Oklahoma. As the trough lifts northeastward this evening, showers and thunderstorms will expand eastward into the rest of the area.
638 PM MST Sat Dec 23 2023 Upper trough was splitting as it moves across the northern Rockies, but still plenty ascent on the front side of the trough. STP A quieter period of weather is in store beginning Christmas Day, as an amplifying ridge builds over the Rockies. The ridge amplification is aided by a deepening closed-low pressure system over the Central Plains.
853 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 00Z upper air analysis shows a ridge of high pressure centered off the Carolina coast with southerly low-level return flow over the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. An upper level low will then bring more widespread showers, with a few pops of thunder, across the area Christmas Eve afternoon through Christmas Day's end.
Colder temperatures will filter into the area tonight through Sunday behind a cold front. High pressure will return Sunday, persisting through the midweek period.
Low level warm advection and convergence along the sfc warm front could create enough lift in the stratus deck to cause patchy drizzle or sprinkles.
1138 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 00Z upper air analysis shows a ridge of high pressure centered off the Carolina coast with southerly low-level return flow over the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. An upper level low will then bring more widespread showers, with a few pops of thunder, across the area Christmas Eve afternoon through Christmas Day's end.
Light snow was shrinking in coverage but will keep highlights in place and allow the snow to totally taper off before ending the highlights. STP A quieter period of weather is in store beginning Christmas Day, as an amplifying ridge builds over the Rockies. The ridge amplification is aided by a deepening closed-low pressure system over the Central Plains. Rising heights with this ridging will bring high temperatures into the upper 30s on Monday.
Despite the dry air advection, there are some pesky low clouds in three distinct regions of the High Country. Initially, the dry air will be too shallow to prevent light rain/snow flurries, but with time, we'll transition to fog/freezing fog as the top- down drying transpires. Where temperatures fall below 32 degrees, freezing fog will be a possibility (I-40 corridor across the LCR, Coconino Plateau and Kaibab). Other than tweaking short term PoPs, the only other change was to introduce a slightly larger coverage of patchy fog/patchy freezing fog.
High temps today will range from the mid 40s over our ne fcst area to the lower 50s near to south of the I-96 corridor.
(Today through Monday) Today will be the start of a transitional period, as the high pressure that has influenced South Florida over the last several days gradually pushes over the Atlantic, and an area of low pressure with an associated cold front moves into the central US and stretches down into the Gulf of Mexico. On Monday, the front will continue to push eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf of Mexico.
- Cold front moves through on Monday morning with temperatures falling through the day. Monday: By Monday morning, the bulk of the rain will begin to taper off to the northeast with a cold front moving through the area.
255 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Today and Tonight: A strong low pressure system will drop southeast into the central plains states through early Christmas morning. However, if the wake-low does indeed develop, winds could gust to between 35-40 mph late this afternoon into early Monday morning as the low moves through the area. Very mild conditions will continue through early afternoon, but cooler air will begin advecting in from the west as we approach the evening.
Turning cooler and unsettled mid-week and beyond. Clouds will linger around through the morning before scattering out ahead of high pressure's entrance this afternoon to dry us out. Cool and cold temperatures this morning will give way to some respectable mid 60s across the lowlands this afternoon as WAA moves in with an upper-level ridge building in and a warm front to our north.
Moisture is arriving, and with the coming upper trough thriving, Expect showers to increase by Christmas Eve day. The upper trough will quickly swing in tomorrow, But until then, isolated showers could cause some sorrow. On Monday the upper trough will further deepen, Meaning this spring-like feel will start to weaken. A cold front will make it cooler, but no snow to measure with a ruler, yet it will start to feel like winter's beacon.
1146 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 (Tonight) Mid/high clouds continue to infiltrate the region late this evening as an upper trough swings into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Turning cooler and unsettled mid-week and beyond. Mild temperatures tonight will generally be in the lower 40s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 30s higher elevations. Expecting the help of some sunshine to warm afternoon temperatures into the lower 60s across the southern half of the area, ranging into the mid 40s highest elevations of our northeast mountains for Sunday. A deep upper trough will be in place across the central U. Rain will be heaviest across the higher terrain and perhaps the Ohio Valley region.
1040 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 (This evening through Sunday) A broad conveyor of elevated moist ascent continued to feed north over the region early this afternoon in advance of a tightly wound upper low about 120 miles west of ABQ. Convection should sweep out of our eastern zones around midnight well ahead of a Pacific cold front and drier westerly flow through daybreak. Opted for a blend of the cooler CONSSHORT highs tomorrow as the NBM continues to look too optimistic given the degree of cold advection.
1055 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level trough is currently located across the Desert Southwest and will approach West Central Texas overnight into Sunday morning. As the aforementioned upper level trough approaches this evening, expect an increase in large scale lift across West Texas, resulting in the development of showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of a Pacific cold front.
The skies will clear out after the first in a series of cold fronts pushes through the region tomorrow as drier and colder air flows into the region. A mid-level trough will also swing through region during this time as well. The high temperatures for Christmas Eve day are expected to be in the 80s for most of the region. Finally, the low temperatures for Christmas Eve are expected to be in the 50s thanks to the first cold front.
Turning cooler and unsettled mid-week and beyond. Clouds will linger around through the morning before scattering out ahead of high pressure's entrance this afternoon to dry us out. Cool and cold temperatures this morning will give way to some respectable mid 60s across the lowlands this afternoon as WAA moves in with an upper-level ridge building in and a warm front to our north. A deep upper trough will be in place across the central U. Rain will be heaviest across the higher terrain and perhaps the Ohio Valley region.
339 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2023 High pressure over the mid Atlantic will keep dry conditions across the forecast area today with moisture increasing this evening.
1121 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 * Fog looks to return overnight as a warm front approaches the area with more warm moist air.
A cold front will follow from northwest to southeast through the day brining more seasonably dry and cool air.
124 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2023 High pressure will remain east of the region through Sunday. High pressure centered southeast of the Maritimes will ridge across the region Sunday night through Monday night.
1107 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 (This evening through Sunday) As of mid afternoon, the closed upper low across the southwestern US has begun to transition to an open wave as it merges with northern stream energy dropping southward across the northern Rockies. The upper trough axis is currently centered across central New Mexico, with large scale ascent ahead of the trough now spreading into the panhandles and western Oklahoma. As the trough lifts northeastward this evening, showers and thunderstorms will expand eastward into the rest of the area.
Areas east of the divide will see temperatures in the teens tonight, but expect little to no warming during the day Sunday with highs only in the low 20s, before all zones fall into the single digits Sunday night. Continuing into midweek, there will be ridging building along the Rockies, keeping most weather activity in check for the state, but strengthening the capping inversion, which keeps the cold pools in place in lower valleys.
A large upper low churning over the Great Plains, will push a cold front down across the region this afternoon. Colder air is advected in leading to lows just below freezing across the Permian Basin and into the mid to upper 20s for southeast New Mexico and the higher elevations.
Skies have cleared and winds were diminishing as an upper ridge builds in rapidly behind today's eastward-departing trough. The next north Pacific trough will weaken as it comes inland but will still increase clouds Sunday afternoon.
High pressure will build over the area through midweek.
These daytime temperatures under the mostly clear skies will unfortunately be enough for snowmelt to occur over the lower elevations. In eastern Montana, cloud cover will increase through the day from an upper low over the central CONUS.
Widespread dense fog will gradually lift this morning as southeast to south winds continue and as the lower layers try to mix out. A deep low pressure area to the west will start to occlude as the upper low remains nearly stationary.
Behind it there will still be the potential for cloud cover in the low, mid, and high levels, but there should still be a reasonable amount of sunshine in most places through the day. The cold front continues to lag behind the main rain shield and scattered showers are likely to continue until the front passes.
Dry northwest flow aloft today and ridging pushing in from the west on Christmas will result in a couple of quiet weather days across the region for the holiday.
- Cooler temperatures arrive tomorrow and continue into the week.
Mid level winds are becoming southwesterly as an upper level ridge axis exits to the east. Temperatures remain well above normal, with highs on Monday in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
521 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level trough is currently located across the Desert Southwest and will approach West Central Texas overnight into Sunday morning. As the aforementioned upper level trough approaches this evening, expect an increase in large scale lift across West Texas, resulting in the development of showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of a Pacific cold front.
But rain chances should return be- fore too long with the arrival of the cold front later this morning/ early afternoon from the W/NW. Cooler/drier air moving into the state will lead to lows tonight falling into the lower to mid 40s over our nor- thern counties from the Brazos Valley to the Piney Woods. with lows near 30 in the Piney Woods to the lower to mid 30s generally north of I-10 and the lower to mid 40s south/coast/metro Houston.
(Today through Monday) A mid-level trough and surface cold front over West Texas advances east today with the front pushing off the coast around sunset.
538 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 (Today through Monday) Good weather welcomes Santa Claus to Deep South Texas and Rio Grande Valley as a dry cold front ushers in a cool and dry northwest flow for his flight tonight and Christmas Day. A mid-level trough and surface cold front over West Texas advances east today with the front pushing off the coast around sunset.
Brisk north winds will be felt today and Thursday behind the passage of a cold front. The cold front is moving south through southern Mohave and eastern San Bernardino Counties currently. Most impactful winds behind the cold front will affect Lake Mead NRA, lower Colorado River Valley and adjacent Mojave Desert with sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph along with gusts around 45 mph.
The weather in the Florida Keys has been mostly clear and tranquil due to an area of high pressure that will gradually slide eastward over the next several days. According to the forecast, they are expected to rise to the lower 80s later this afternoon. An area of high pressure centered near northern Florida will gradually slide eastward into the western North Atlantic waters. A second high pressure will merge with the high in the North Atlantic waters this weekend.
632 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2023 A warm front lifts northward today into the southern portion of the Great Lakes. High temperatures will be quite varied through the region, ranging from the lower 50s in south central Lower Michigan to the middle 70s over central Indiana. Northern stream trough in southern Manitoba to undergo deepening as stronger Alberta system is ingested and tracks into the Arrowhead of Minnesota/Western Lake Superior by 12 UTC Thursday. Better chances for showers, possible thunderstorms, near triple point and along trailing cold front this evening/early tonight with nominal 200-400 J/kg MUCAPE. Increasing insolation to partially offset strong post frontal cold air advection Thursday with highs close to normal, in the lower/middle 50s.
A dry cold front is moving across northern Arizona this morning, shifting lighter winds from southwest to north- northeast.
(Today through Thursday Night) On Wednesday, upper lvl ridging over Arkansas in cohesion with an approaching sfc cold front from the west and a sfc area of high pressure located along the Gulf Coast region of the CONUS will continue to usher in brisk southerly winds into the CWA. Expect brisk conditions with gusty winds, much warmer than normal temperatures, and partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. On Wednesday Night into Thursday Night, a cold front will approach the Natural State from the northwest.
The highest chances will be for east coast areas where the strongest coastal convergence occurs, but that region will still not see PoPs over 20% which will be the highest over all of South Florida. Other than these few light showers or sprinkles, the local atmosphere will be mostly stable with a mid-level capping inversion present and high pressure inhibiting lifting. The only other item to note is that there will be late night and early morning fog potential as the near-surface inversion forms and we start to see the uptick in low level moisture as nocturnal cooling hits the low point of the night.
A dry, cold front is moving across northern Arizona this morning that will bring noticeably cooler daytime temperatures and a wind shift to the north-northeast.
For the remainder of the week, the H500 ridge will weaken, flattening out over the southeastern U. More unsettled weather will develop south of the region, across the southern Plains and across the lower Mississippi Valley, where broad scale ascent will develop ahead of the broad southwestern trough.
1250 PM MST Wed Nov 8 2023 A transitory ridge of high pressure will set-up over the Northern Rockies for today and Thursday. The pattern is favorable for fog, with low level moisture lingering under a developing ridge.
141 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023 Above normal temperatures will once again be present today as a warm front lifts northward today. A cold front will move through tonight into Thursday. Surface obs indicate that the warm front associated with the low pressure system to our west (currently around the NE/MO border) is currently lifting into our southern CWA. Previous discussion-> Mostly dry conditions are expected today, however a few light isolated showers will be possible as a warm front moves northward. A cold front will move through tonight into Thursday.
A cold front will cross the region tomorrow ending the rain free and record warmth weather pattern.
Starting tomorrow late morning troughing approaches from our west along with a front that will ultimately start bringing in BKN clouds starting from the NW.
1242 PM MST Wed Nov 8 2023 The start of a docile weather pattern begins today, with high pressure starting to move eastward, closer to the region. Temperatures across the state today remain near seasonable with central basins seeing highs in the low to mid 40s. West of the Divide and southern parts of the state will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. The remainder of the work week will see high pressure slowly build in over the region.
242 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 Deep high pressure will continue to be the story in the near term, keeping warm and dry conditions in place for now. This same high pressure is helping to promote subtle moist return flow and should continue to gradually moisten the column through Thursday. The combination of high pressure and increased moisture has led to dense fog events in recent mornings, and this trend should continue Thursday morning in southeastern areas, as HREF probabilities of visibilities half mile or less are around 40%. Warm temperatures will continue Thursday, especially across central and southern areas ahead of a surface cold front. Rain chances will increase from NW to SE as the surface cold front pushes southeastward across the area.
A ridge will continue to build over the region today into Thursday with warmer conditions.
The high winds in this area may also limit warm temperatures from reaching the surface. DNM Near record to record warmth is expected again across the Mid-South today with temperatures reaching the lower 80s. A slow moving cold front will bring a return of rain chances beginning late tonight into Thursday and persisting across areas south of I-40 into the upcoming weekend.
Tonight and Thursday As was expected, things are much quieter across eastern Idaho this afternoon as high pressure is now in control of area weather. That being said, confidence isn't the highest and either way, it won't be overly impactful. Slightly warmer (by 3- 5 degrees) with ample sunshine and light winds for much of the day.
The scattered showers will also diminish or end across the rest of the area late this afternoon or early this evening, the chances of rain or snow will return later this evening mainly north of Highway 29 as a cold front sweeps across the area. After the passage of the cold front tonight, an increasing pressure gradient and turbulent mixing on Thursday will result in windy conditions.
1256 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023 Upper ridging and high pressure will keep conditions dry with above normal temperatures through Thursday.
Today, a low pressure area will ride northeast along a frontal boundary to our south. It will lift the warm front north into the area. Highs may be brief in places as the low passes and ushers cooler air quickly behind it. The highest POPs are from Iowa City towards Rockford. Tonight, under clear skies, a secondary cold front will push through the area.
(This evening through Thursday) Make sure to enjoy the warmer temperatures late this afternoon and tonight, as they will come to an end with the onset of an approaching cold front from the north tonight. Overnight tonight, winds will become breezy again and shift to the north as the cold front tracks through the area into Thursday morning. In the wake of this cold front, rain showers will begin to track into the area Thursday morning and become widespread going into Thursday afternoon. Temperatures overnight tonight are expected to range in the lower 50s to lower 60s, which will also coincide with Thursday's high temperatures for the day.
1147 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2023 (Today and tonight) Today features an incoming cold front, record heat, and elevated fire weather risk across southwest OK and western north TX. Along with the heat, relative humidity values drop into the low teens over western Oklahoma and western north Texas ahead of the cold front.
A cold front continues to slowly move eastwards across western Minnesota this afternoon, with breezy winds gusting up to 30 mph in its wake.
With high pressure dominant across the southeast, subsidence remains entrenched and nothing more than fair weather cumulus are expected today. Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 50s.
Latest guidance has been painting best chance of denser fog developing east of the forecast area, with the upper high deflecting any cirrus northeast over the forecast area.
(The rest of today ) A dry line is entering the northwest part of our forecast area at this time, and will be closely followed by a cold front this afternoon and evening.
Broader scale, we are still under the influence of high pressure to our southeast, with the high pressure center translating east across the FL peninsula through the day today.