Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Breezy but warmer and overall dry weather is expected in the short term period. The attendant warm front extends north- south across central North Dakota, with breezy winds on either side of the front. 19 UTC temperatures range from the mid teens north central to the lower 30s southwest, with low level warm advection spreading over the state. This will keep lows relatively mild tonight, in the lower teens to lower 20s. This front will somewhat limit high temperatures even after the warm front today, with forecast highs on Friday in the lower to mid 30s.
Dry and warmer weather will continue into Friday with clear skies.
As of 1 PM, the Pacific cold front bringing strong west winds into the area was just west of Crockett County, moving east at 35 to 40 mph. Given that, and short term models continuing to show strong winds through the late night hours especially from the Concho Valley and Heartland areas south into the Interstate 10 corridor, will keep the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory going, and extend them in time through midnight.
Very light rain will form along the coast tonight with cloudy skies keeping temperatures outside of Trinity County just above freezing. Clouds will persist overnight, keeping temperatures much warmer than last night with most areas outside of Trinity County dropping to just above freezing. There is good agreement that a deep, cold trough will drop down over the area this weekend, generating a threat of snow as low as 1000 feet.
Snow showers are present across the region with winds from the southwest in and along a cold frontal passage. After sundown roads will cool to freezing and a slushy accumulation will produce isolated slick conditions.
326 PM MST Thu Mar 2 2023 After a relatively quiet weather day, a trough approaching from the Pacific Northwest will return snow to western Wyoming by late this evening. Snow will taper off Friday evening as a brief transitory ridge builds in.
Clouds will be slow to clear as moisture wraps around the departing upper low but a steady clearing from west to east will occur after sunrise Friday. It will be much cooler and breezy Friday with highs mainly in the 60s.
There may be some more breaks in clouds overnight, but then clouds will settle back in by Friday morning as low pressure tracks into northern Arkansas. Strong low pressure tracking from southern IL to Lake Erie Friday afternoon and evening will bring a swath of snow to northern IL.
Furthermore, highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s over the higher terrain (elevations above 6000 feet) should allow for a gentle melt of the snow pack.
234 PM MST Thu Mar 2 2023 Colorado in-between systems with weak ridging moving over Colorado this evening with a dry and subsident airmass. Increasing high clouds will be streaming in over Colorado later this evening and overnight ahead of next upper trof. Not expecting to issue winter hilights with this system with the higher amounts over remote higher areas. Across the lower elevations, the weak upper trof will approach the area in the afternoon with weak QG ascent. The airmass is a bit in the dry side in the low levels but some mid level moisture and decent mid level lapse rates.
There still could be some light snow mixed in with the rain in the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas Friday morning.
The next opportunity for active weather arrives this weekend as another trough moves into the western United States, bringing the potential for gusty winds across much of the area and snowfall in the Sierra. Warmer with a day of light winds tomorrow. That will change this weekend as deep trough settles over the PacNW/western Canada.
Breezy conditions across the island chain are the result of a high pressure sliding eastward and a tightening of the pressure gradient across the southeastern United States. For the rest of the night, expect mostly clear skies and temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 70s. High pressure over the western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary transversing the south central United States will promote moderate to occasionally fresh southeast breezes tonight through Friday. A cold front stalling in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend will cause winds to turn to the southwest and slacken.
1039 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 (This afternoon through tonight) A warm front, moving through northern parts of the DFW metro area, will continue to lift slowly northward through the afternoon. Overall thunderstorm coverage has increased during the last hour and this trend will continue, as a compact upper low approaches far west Texas late this afternoon. If the warm front can make it far enough northward, which is beginning to appear unlikely, there may be a window of opportunity for tornadoes across far southern Oklahoma.
229 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 A tightening pressure gradient associated with a strong cold front pushing into the southeast today will produce gusty winds with gusts up to 30 mph possible.
The next trough slides through the area today and is already bringing moist upslope flow to western WY. Snow is also expected in the Cody Foothills, Johnson County, and the Bighorn Mountains thanks to a weak cold front dropping in from the north. It now appears the cold front will stall before it makes it to Casper, so snow amounts will drop off quickly from southern Johnson County to northern Natrona County.
At 8 PM MST KCBX radar showed light snow showers over most of our CWA as a weak upper trough moves through from northwest to southeast. Snow accumulation through the night should be small, generally 1-3 inches in the mountains, and less than one inch (probably less than a half inch) in the lower valleys.
1052 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) The robust upper low and associated 100-110kt jet responsible for today's impactful weather is currently spinning over El Paso. After reaching the eastern zones peaked in the mid to upper 70s ahead of the front, cooler air pushes in behind it, sending low temperatures down into the 30s to low 40s. As the cold core of the upper low passes overhead, a few showers are possible across the northern Permian Basin tonight. Things quiet down considerably as the night progresses with wind gradually winding down as the upper low quickly lifts away.
1236 AM PST Fri Mar 3 2023 Sub-freezing temperatures are expected in parts of the San Joaquin Valley this morning.
Then warmer and more moist air will move into the area afterwards as the showers and isolated thunderstorms move further north into southern middle Tennessee.
951 PM MST Thu Mar 2 2023 After a relatively quiet weather day, a trough approaching from the Pacific Northwest will return snow to western Wyoming by late this evening. Snow will taper off Friday evening as a brief transitory ridge builds in.
/NEW/ /Through Friday Night/ The intense upper-level trough/low that brought our severe weather yesterday evening will move across north Texas early this morning as it begins to accelerate toward Midwest. Otherwise, cooler, more seasonable weather for mid-March is expected with highs in the mid 60s deg F.
237 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 Upper trof moving across the southern Plains will take on a negative tilt as it moves northeastward across the Ozarks this morning and into the lower Ohio Valley later this afternoon. Thermal profiles under the deformation zone of the departing upper trof look to remain marginal for frozen precip this morning, though could see a brief transition or mix across parts of south central Kansas and the Flint Hills.
302 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 A developing low pressure system over the Ohio Valley will continue to move northeast and produce some snow over the very southeastern part of the forecast area. This low will begin filling as it begins to impact northern Michigan. High pressure and much drier air will move in quickly behind this departing system.
Chances will diminish thereafter as the upper low continues eastward and downward motion takes over. As of 1 PM, the Pacific cold front bringing strong west winds into the area was just west of Crockett County, moving east at 35 to 40 mph. Given that, and short term models continuing to show strong winds through the late night hours especially from the Concho Valley and Heartland areas south into the Interstate 10 corridor, will keep the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory going, and extend them in time through midnight.
(Today and tonight) Upper low will continue to shift northeast today with a few lingering showers this morning across portions of north-central into eastern parts of the area. Other than the cold core of the upper low, no real cold air associated with the system, so we should see warmer temperatures across at least the northern half of the area by the afternoon hours today.
310 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 A developing low pressure system over the Ohio Valley will continue to move northeast and produce some snow over the very southeastern part of the forecast area. This low will begin filling as it begins to impact northern Michigan. High pressure and much drier air will move in quickly behind this departing system.
1032 PM MST Thu Mar 2 2023 Water vapor shows upper trof along the Pac NW coast with upper ridge extending from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. At the surface, lee trof has advanced into the western Dakotas. For Friday, weak upper trof moves through the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains by Friday night. Northwest winds will become breezy by afternoon as a cold front shifts through.
One more round of rainfall with the upper low this morning as it slides by over the ArkLaTex and toward the mid-Mississippi Valley by midday. Left some potential for thunder in over western AR and far eastern OK closer to upper low track. For high temps, used a combo of CONSRaw and CONSShort to keep temps cooler over western AR and far eastern OK where low clouds are expected to hold on for much of the day.
1033 PM MST Thu Mar 2 2023 After a relatively quiet weather day, a trough approaching from the Pacific Northwest will return snow to western Wyoming by late this evening. Snow will taper off Friday evening as a brief transitory ridge builds in.
537 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 - A period of light snow is expected late today and tonight mainly north of highway 2 with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible especially up toward the Pine Ridge.
536 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) We are finally seeing winds wind down across our region as the robust upper level low responsible for the wind storm yesterday continues to depart ewd towards the ArkLaTex. A weak cold front (emphasis on weak) will arrive early Saturday bringing a brief northerly wind shift. This will allow high temps to top out above normal in the low to mid 70s in most locations.
Hard to say cold front though, as there is no real push of colder air behind it. Highs look a bit cooler than today, but still close to normal.
The overall shower activity is expected to diminish this evening as a weak ridge of high pressure moves over the Northern Rockies.
529 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 Upper trof moving across the southern Plains will take on a negative tilt as it moves northeastward across the Ozarks this morning and into the lower Ohio Valley later this afternoon. Thermal profiles under the deformation zone of the departing upper trof look to remain marginal for frozen precip this morning, though could see a brief transition or mix across parts of south central Kansas and the Flint Hills.
Winds will shift to weak onshore by this evening as the high pressure ridge moves into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Upper level flow will become zonal for Saturday with slightly warmer temperatures in store.
310 AM PST Fri Mar 3 2023 A little warmer today, then a low pressure system centered near the Pacific Northwest coast will bring stronger onshore flow for the weekend into early next weak with stronger and gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts. High temperatures will be cooler and it will be cloudier, especially from the coat to the mountains.
528 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 A developing low pressure system over the Ohio Valley will continue to move northeast and produce some snow over the very southeastern part of the forecast area. This low will begin filling as it begins to impact northern Michigan. High pressure and much drier air will move in quickly behind this departing system.
A low pressure system will track through the Mid-South this morning. This low will drag a cold front through the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be found ahead of the cold front. Winds will be very strong outside of the thunderstorms and behind the cold front.
The aforementioned wave will continue along the International border this morning, and will drive a cold front across the Northern Plains today.
530 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 (Today and tonight) Early morning upper-level water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showed the upper low that brought light precipitation and breezy/cool conditions to the area moving south of the Red River towards I-35.
with some isolated TSRA this morning as the negatively tilted upper closed low lifts NE over AR into MO. This will allow for ample radiational cooling to cause temps to drop to near or just above freezing tonight into Sat morning for NRN and portions of central/WRN AR. temps will be a bit warmer Sat night.
Overnight, weak southerly flow will continue and temperatures should fall into the low 40s under clear skies.
The upper level trough to our north will move off to the northeast leading to a dry zonal flow aloft today through Saturday. A good surface pressure gradient due to high pressure building into our area along with some mixing after sunrise will maintain breezy west to northwesterly winds this morning.
532 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 (Today through Saturday Night) The cold front has pushed to the east ushering in cooler, drier air that will stick around through Saturday. Breezy northwesterly winds of 10 to 15mph and occasional higher gusts will persist through the afternoon today as the low pressure system pulls away to the northeast. High pressure builds in over East Texas today that slides into the lower Mississippi river valley on Saturday keeping the drier conditions in place for us in SE Texas. We can expect temperatures this afternoon to climb into the low 70s along and south of I-10 and then in the upper 60s north of Conroe. Saturday night will be cool, but not as cool as tonight, with temperatures dropping down into the low to mid 50s across the area.
The upper level low will continue to move well east of the area today with more of a zonal west to east flow over the Central High Plains. Winds then shift to the north and increase in speed overnight as a weak cold front moves through the area.
229 AM MST Fri Mar 3 2023 Current surface map places warm front across the central Dakotas with cold front moving into eastern Montana. For today, cold front drops into northeast Wyoming and north South Dakota this morning and trough the rest of the forecast area this afternoon.
The upper trough largely responsible for yesterday's storms continues to pull northeast this morning, leaving North and Central Texas on the cool and subsident side of the trough. Current temperatures are about 30-40 degrees cooler than yesterday afternoon following the passage of last night's cold front. The cold air isn't expected to last long, however as south flow returns tonight as the high pressure center builds over the Southeastern CONUS.
- A period of light snow is expected late today and tonight mainly north of highway 2 with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible especially up toward the Pine Ridge.
(Today through Saturday Night) The cold front has pushed to the east ushering in cooler, drier air that will stick around through Saturday. Breezy northwesterly winds of 10 to 15mph and occasional higher gusts will persist through the afternoon today as the low pressure system pulls away to the northeast. High pressure builds in over East Texas today that slides into the lower Mississippi river valley on Saturday keeping the drier conditions in place for us in SE Texas. We can expect temperatures this afternoon to climb into the low 70s along and south of I-10 and then in the upper 60s north of Conroe. Saturday night will be cool, but not as cool as tonight, with temperatures dropping down into the low to mid 50s across the area.
This trough does take on a negative tilt as it pivots in, and some guidance looks somewhat convective with snowfall Sat night despite the unfavorable diurnal timing and likely weak instability (and snow squall parameters look questionable at this juncture), but we can't rule out some organized heavier, gusty snow showers during this period.
541 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper low will continue to shift northeast today with a few lingering showers this morning across portions of north-central into eastern parts of the area. Other than the cold core of the upper low, no real cold air associated with the system, so we should see warmer temperatures across at least the northern half of the area by the afternoon hours today.
(Today and tonight) Early morning upper-level water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showed the upper low that brought light precipitation and breezy/cool conditions to the area moving south of the Red River towards I-35.
The CWA will lie under strong ascent caused by a negatively tilted mid-level trough moving through Missouri and Illinois underneath a coupled upper level jet. The heaviest rates will end this morning with lighter rain ending from west to east this afternoon as the upper low quicker lifts out. This low will move quickly to the northeast by this evening causing the gusts to decrease after sunset. Expect quiet weather tonight into Saturday as subsidence sets in behind the exiting upper low. With clearing tonight and light winds, lows will be near freezing.
Through Tonight: With the upper low (and strongest upper forcing) progressing eastward across TX/OK this aft/eve -- well south of the Tri-State area -- forcing will be relegated to the passage of a SW-NE oriented shear-axis.
Expect wind to diminish quickly for tonight with a much cooler airmass allowing temperatures to dip well into the 40s.
Overall, benign conditions can be expected as the western periphery of a broad and elongated ridge over the southwestern Atlantic waters continues to dominate the weather pattern.
As the NAMNEST has been the model of choice, it's bringing in some light snow to the higher elevations of the Flat Tops and northern mountains between 6 and 8AM and overspreading the northern valleys heading towards noon. nearing 40 mph for the higher terrain. Now we turn to an area of low pressure that will set up off the PacNW coast Saturday evening. the low just doesn't move. As the low pressure starts moving, models still disagree considerably with its trajectory and timing.
Strong blocking will retrograde from the North Atlantic to the high latitudes of North America during the period. There are some indications that the flow across the CONUS will undergo significant amplification late in the period as the blocking consolidates across Canada. Overall expect it to be mostly cloudy, though some sun will probably work through the high clouds at times today.
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 526 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 A low pressure system will track through the Mid-South this morning. This low will drag a cold front through the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be found ahead of the cold front. Winds will be very strong outside of the thunderstorms and behind the cold front.
High pressure builds into the area and we will be in zonal flow aloft, so expect the rest of the short term to be pleasant.
522 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 (Today through Saturday) Cold front moved through the CWA around midnight bringing gusty northwesterly winds behind it. Mostly clear skies are expected today with high temperatures feeling much cooler reaching only the mid 80s.
nearing 40 mph for the higher terrain. Now we turn to an area of low pressure that will set up off the PacNW coast Saturday evening. the low just doesn't move. As the low pressure starts moving, models still disagree considerably with its trajectory and timing.
355 AM MST Fri Mar 3 2023 Current surface map places warm front across the central Dakotas with cold front moving into eastern Montana. For today, cold front drops into northeast Wyoming and north South Dakota this morning and trough the rest of the forecast area this afternoon.
FL Peninsula is on the northern periphery of the strong upper ridging from the N Carib this morning. Upper trough swinging through the Mississippi River Valley pushing potent surface storm system ahead of it. A tightening pressure gradient associated with a strong cold front pushing into the southeast today will produce gusty winds with gusts up to 30 mph possible. This cold front will start to approach that state late today and into our Saturday however by the time it gets to us it will be much weaker. Besides that temperatures might be a degree or two cooler but overall not a big change in our weather pattern.
Upper pattern is generally zonal, with an upper low/trof lingering over the Pacific Northwest. With the warmer temperatures over the weekend, and winds calming down by Saturday morning, there could be some areas of fog, particularly in the river valleys.
(Today through Saturday) Cold front moved through the CWA around midnight bringing gusty northwesterly winds behind it. Mostly clear skies are expected today with high temperatures feeling much cooler reaching only the mid 80s.
Mostly clear skies are forecast again on Saturday and highs will be a few degrees cooler as the low levels warm back up after the weak front moves through. Southerly winds will return on Saturday night and may be strong enough to provide sufficient mixing to aid in keeping temperatures above freezing.
Lastly, temps will be near to below freezing tonight, followed by highs in the 40s. High pressure passes through this weekend amongst a progressive pattern aloft.
Morning satellite imagery showing an upper trough exiting the region. Breezy conditions will add a chill to temperatures, especially across the Snake Plain east of Mountain Home where the windchill will remain in the low 20s. Scattered snow showers mainly over the higher terrain through Friday evening, with local MVFR/IFR conditions and mountain obscuration.
The biggest change was to add coastal Martin County to the Red Flag warning, since LAMP guidance suggests that min RH could reach 35% or lower there, should temperatures reach the lower 90s. Strong SW winds will prevent the sea breeze from moving onshore, so even coastal areas will likely reach the lower 90s.
Breezy afternoon as a combination of a very tight pressure gradient between high pressure in the N Carib and Southern storm system as well as diurnal heating that is mixing drier and breezier conditions aloft to the surface this afternoon producing wind gusts over land observed to 30-40+ kts. Upper low and trough to quickly lift through the Great Lakes region tonight and into the New England Saturday as the surface cold front loses its upper support and slowly sags through N FL Peninsula Saturday.
Expecting the greatest gradient winds behind the cold front, but the low level jet ahead of the front could lead to exceptional wind gusts as well ahead of the QLCS, especially in the higher elevations.
(Through Tonight) The back edge of the low clouds is slowly making its way eastward across eastern Oklahoma, having reached Highway 75.
1151 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 Gradient remains tight over South Texas in the wake of the exiting low pressure system currently moving into Southern Illinois and winds have been gusting higher than guidance indicates. Winds should relax sharply by noon as high pressure settles into the region revealing a very nice day across South Texas with low humidities and mild/warm temperatures with highs in the upper 70s east to mid 80s west. Winds will shift to weak onshore by this evening as the high pressure ridge moves into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Upper level flow will become zonal for Saturday with slightly warmer temperatures in store.