Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper trough will pass through the Plains this morning, bringing cooler air to the area while also simultaneously tightening the gradient so that strong downsloping west winds develop this afternoon.
(Today through Sunday) Large scale upper trough is presently located over the E Rockies with SW flow aloft over the local area. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley to SW Louisiana with several weak waves along the front. A warm front (and remnant of the wedge) extends into the NE corner of the state. The aforementioned cold front will slide into the area early Sunday morning, potentially supporting a pre-frontal band of thunderstorms as well. Pre-frontal temperatures will remain warm, with highs today ranging from the upper 50s in the NE mountains to the lower 70s across the SE. Similar daytime highs are expected on Sunday as some peeks of sun return and before cooler air filters in.
The cloud cover and light southerly winds have kept temperatures in the upper 50s, but a cold front is just entering our northwest counties and we should see temperatures fall into the 40s for Stewart County before sunrise.
445 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 Current surface analysis places high over the Upper Midwest, with trough over western Saskatchewan dipping down into eastern Montana/Wyoming. Upper level analysis places modest trough from the Northern Plains through the Central Rockies.
537 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 (Today through Sunday) 500mb low pressure trough moves east across Texas today as mid- level kicker trough digs into northwest Mexico Sunday maintaining a general mid- upper level southwest flow over N Mexico and S Texas this weekend. After the low clouds and patchy fog lift mid to late morning, sufficient warming from the Sun is expected even though a rather thick cirrus shield is likely to keep the Sun filtered. Tonight fair skies and cool temperatures to overspread the region with most locals in the low to mid 50s to near 60 degrees in the Lower RGV and at the coast.
527 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 (Today through Sunday) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level ridge anchored across Caribbean and an upper level trough sliding across the Plains. This boundary may meander back towards the coast a bit this morning before a reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes to south of our area. Northwesterly winds in the wake of our high pressure surge will bring drier air into the region with PWATs falling to less than 0. Cooler temps are in store tonight with lows dipping into the low 40s to mid 50s.
545 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 The 09Z/3 am surface analysis shows 1012 mb low pressure over northeast Indiana, nw of Fort Wayne IN with a frontal trof hanging back across central IL, se of I-55. Latest CAMs show low pressure weakens further to 1015 mb as it tracks into the southeast Great Lakes by midday while weak surface trof se of I-55 dissolves. Not much temperature climb today with the low clouds, with highs ranging from lower 40s along and nw of the IL river and upper 40s to near 50F in southeast IL.
A cold front is approaching from the northwest early this morning.
(Today through Sunday night) Latest 09Z satellite obs shows a well compact H500 trough moving east across central New Mexico. This mid level trough will continue to move east across the Panhandles today. If the main trough axis shifts north slightly, the steepest H500 height will traverse portions of the far south central and southwest TX Panhandle. High temperatures today will range from the lower 50s to the lower 60s. Aided by downslope sustained sfc flow of 15-25 mph across the majority of the region, high temperatures tomorrow will be warmer than today with highs getting well into the 60s for a good portion of the area.
505 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 (Today through Sunday Night) On Saturday, an upper lvl trof is on approach to the Natural State with strong southwesterly flow over Arkansas. At the sfc, a low pressure center will be located across Oklahoma with an attendant warm front positioned to the east along with an attendant cold front extending southwestward along the I-44 corridor in Oklahoma. Temperatures will remain warmer than climatological normals for this time of the year as the warm front will assist in promoting an overall warmer airmass ahead of the cold front. A moisture starved cold front will move across Arkansas.
Light snow can be expected in many of the valleys into the afternoon when a cold front will move through.
GPI has the best chance for multiple hours of snowfall through noon while other terminals including MSO, BTM and HRF may see a brief period of snow before a cold front moves through by 22z or 3 pm MST this afternoon. Light snow can be expected in many of the valleys into the afternoon when a cold front will move through.
Have sided on the higher end of this guidance for daytime highs today as we anticipate a fair amount of sunshine. We may have some additional cloud cover to contend with on Sunday, but still anticipate daytime readings to push into the upper 30s/low 40s east to the low to mid 40s west. Minimum RH values do drop into the upper 30s to low 40s Sunday afternoon and given the forecasted winds this will push the fire danger into the high category for our West River counties.
532 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 (Today through Sunday night) Latest 09Z satellite obs shows a well compact H500 trough moving east across central New Mexico. This mid level trough will continue to move east across the Panhandles today. If the main trough axis shifts north slightly, the steepest H500 height will traverse portions of the far south central and southwest TX Panhandle. High temperatures today will range from the lower 50s to the lower 60s. Aided by downslope sustained sfc flow of 15-25 mph across the majority of the region, high temperatures tomorrow will be warmer than today with highs getting well into the 60s for a good portion of the area.
Current surface analysis places high over the Upper Midwest, with trough over western Saskatchewan dipping down into eastern Montana/Wyoming. Upper level analysis places modest trough from the Northern Plains through the Central Rockies.
959 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 Low pressure will move overhead Sunday with its associated cold front moving through the area Sunday afternoon.
409 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 (Today through Sunday) Large scale upper trough is presently located over the E Rockies with SW flow aloft over the local area. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley to SW Louisiana with several weak waves along the front. A warm front (and remnant of the wedge) extends into the NE corner of the state. The aforementioned cold front will slide into the area early Sunday morning, potentially supporting a pre-frontal band of thunderstorms as well. Pre-frontal temperatures will remain warm, with highs today ranging from the upper 50s in the NE mountains to the lower 70s across the SE. Similar daytime highs are expected on Sunday as some peeks of sun return and before cooler air filters in.
We continue to be on the freezing line through this period leading to difficult forecasts. This should raise dewpoints above freezing. While most soundings start above freezing, they quickly drop to freezing or below. That said with Tds slightly warmer, think accum on roads will be minimal.
532 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Rockies and northern plains which will move east into the plains by 00z Sun.
A cool air mass will linger across the region this weekend resulting in near to below normal temperatures and afternoon highs in the 60s across the lower deserts.
405 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 The 09Z/3 am surface analysis shows 1012 mb low pressure over northeast Indiana, nw of Fort Wayne IN with a frontal trof hanging back across central IL, se of I-55. Latest CAMs show low pressure weakens further to 1015 mb as it tracks into the southeast Great Lakes by midday while weak surface trof se of I-55 dissolves. Not much temperature climb today with the low clouds, with highs ranging from lower 40s along and nw of the IL river and upper 40s to near 50F in southeast IL.
650 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 Synoptic moisture associated with the wave of low pressure will strip out of Southeast Michigan during the next hour or two. Daytime heating may allow ceilings to lift into the low VFR for a time this afternoon before lowering again this evening. The trough will prevent any thermal advection in either direction thus we should be locked in with temps similar to yesterday with highs around 40. Pattern remains active with several waves reinforcing the upper level trough which is stretching from the Plains toward the Great Lakes by Sunday.
1131 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 (Today through Sunday) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level ridge anchored across Caribbean and an upper level trough sliding across the Plains. This boundary may meander back towards the coast a bit this morning before a reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes to south of our area. Northwesterly winds in the wake of our high pressure surge will bring drier air into the region with PWATs falling to less than 0. Cooler temps are in store tonight with lows dipping into the low 40s to mid 50s.
The cold front will advance into the peninsula pinching the Caribbean high back.
308 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 A series of low pressure systems will bring occasional chances for showers through the first part of the upcoming week. This front will stall out heading into this evening as a developing wave of low pressure over the eastern Tennessee Valley rides north along it. Meanwhile, mid level energy will eject northeast out of a trough moving into the the mid Mississippi Valley overnight. Overnight lows will range from the lower 40s northwest to the upper 40s southeast. The mid level trough will pivot out of the mid Mississippi Valley and across the lower Great lakes Sunday into Sunday night.
Synoptic ridging continues to dominate the sensible weather for the Florida Keys on this early December day. The aforementioned ridge will continue to dictate the sensible weather for the Florida Keys this weekend.
106 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Rockies and northern plains which will move east into the plains by 00z Sun.
915 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 Surface observations this morning show that the cold front has entered northwest Middle TN with temperatures on the cold side in the 40's while near 60 degrees ahead of it. The cloud cover and light southerly winds have kept temperatures in the upper 50s, but a cold front is just entering our northwest counties and we should see temperatures fall into the 40s for Stewart County before sunrise.
Temperatures will fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s both tonight, as the weak surface cold front filters in some cooler temperatures into the area and drier/more clear conditions tonight will provide some decent radiational cooling overnight tonight. However, some low lying areas across the area may see temperatures reach or fall below the freezing mark Sunday morning.
By the middle part of the afternoon a cold front will be pushing across north-central Idaho and western Montana, which will provide support for additional snow development. The drop in temperature expected behind the cold front, although not drastic, will also help create icy spots on area roadways.
234 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday) Cold front is currently situated near the MS/AL border. The first area across north GA is isentropically induced on the north side of a warm front. Do expect the low clouds and fog to fill back in across north and central portions of the state after sunset. Patchy dense fog may be possible just ahead of the approaching cold front. Temperatures should remain nearly steady across most areas overnight, but could slightly rise across the southern quarter of the CWA as warmer air surges northward from the GOMEX.
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery depicts ridging across the Florida Keys, with anticyclonic upper-level flow shunting convection anticyclonically away from the island chain. With temperatures already in the lower 80s across the island chain, both locations will be flirting with record high temperature territory this afternoon. From synopsis, high pressure will continue to slide east across the west- central North Atlantic over the next several days.
(Sunday through Saturday) Sunny skies and warmer temps return Sunday ahead of the next fast moving wave and associated cold front.
Due to the stagnant conditions out ahead of the cold front and moisture pooling, patchy fog will be likely where rain showers don't develop along with overcast low stratus as winds become light overnight. A secondary push of cooler and drier air will enter into the area by Sunday afternoon as temperatures rise into the low to mid 60s.
1141 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 (Today through Sunday night) Latest 09Z satellite obs shows a well compact H500 trough moving east across central New Mexico. This mid level trough will continue to move east across the Panhandles today. If the main trough axis shifts north slightly, the steepest H500 height will traverse portions of the far south central and southwest TX Panhandle. High temperatures today will range from the lower 50s to the lower 60s. Aided by downslope sustained sfc flow of 15-25 mph across the majority of the region, high temperatures tomorrow will be warmer than today with highs getting well into the 60s for a good portion of the area.
1136 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 (Today through Sunday Night) On Saturday, an upper lvl trof is on approach to the Natural State with strong southwesterly flow over Arkansas. At the sfc, a low pressure center will be located across Oklahoma with an attendant warm front positioned to the east along with an attendant cold front extending southwestward along the I-44 corridor in Oklahoma. Temperatures will remain warmer than climatological normals for this time of the year as the warm front will assist in promoting an overall warmer airmass ahead of the cold front. A moisture starved cold front will move across Arkansas.
Dry conditions will continue through much of today with weak ridging in response to a digging central CONUS trough. Another weak system will move northeastward from the Tennessee Valley into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. This will return rain chances to the region with the highest probabilities to the south and east of Pittsburgh. This northern low will have more upper level support with it, but because it is moving north of the region, the highest probabilities for rain will be across the northern half of the forecast area.
A round of steadier rain is expected Sunday as a low pressure system moves through. Meanwhile low pressure developing over the Southeast will be moving north along the spine of the Appalachians overnight and rain will be pushing in from the south before daybreak tomorrow. Temperatures will be relatively mild tonight with lows in the lower 40s. As this low moves to the east and off the mid-Atlantic coast during the mid-to-late afternoon, a second area of low pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes enhancing showers over CNY into the evening.
Clouds continue to stream across the FL peninsula as a trough axis propagates through West Texas. As this trough continues to amplify the upper-level pattern over the SE CONUS, eventually an attendant cold front will push southwards into our area.
1017 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 Wind gusts are a little slow coming up this morning, but there are a few finally showing up in the clear and partly cloudy areas stretching from Devils Lake down through the Wahpeton-Breckenridge area.
Soundings in this environment during the evening across the southeast are all below freezing except for the bottom 500-1000 feet.
Winds will slowly turn southwesterly then northwesterly by tomorrow morning as the cold front sweeps from west to east across the area. Rain should subside with the progression of the cold front. The surface cold front starts working its way through the CWA late tonight into Sunday morning, finally ushering in drier, cooler air as we head into Sunday afternoon and evening. Expect high temperatures today to top out in the lower to middle 70's, dipping into the upper 50's inland and lower to middle 60's nearer the coast tonight. Sunday will be a bit cooler, with highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's.
Tonight and Sunday Key messages: Light snow is likely late tonight and Sunday with the highest totals across eastern counties. For tonight, low pressure will move into southern Wisconsin as an upper trough moves into the western Great Lakes. Low pressure will continue to move east into lower Michigan on Sunday. The Dynamic Ensemble-based Scenario output indicated the highest chances of 3 inches of snow was over Calumet County which was only around 40%. However, low levels winds are only 10 to 15 knots and air temperatures will be a few degrees above freezing that may limit snowfall totals in this region. High temperatures in the lower to middle 30s are expected.
And really just getting the low stuff to break and scatter in Monroe. The high cloud swath has a nice break over E TX and NW LA, plus light winds are both allowing for the warm up. The back edge of the clouds appears to remain progressive enough to go much cooler the NBM lows overnight. Weak high pressure in the mid MS River Valley is moving away this evening with another bubble air mass expanding across TX off of the front range. And here is where the NBM hangs on to the warmer readings with 4-8KT of wind overnight.
203 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 Low pressure will move overhead Sunday bringing renewed rain chances. The associated cold front will move through Sunday afternoon.
At 2 pm cst, under a mostly sunny sky, temperatures are warming through the 30s, and for some locations into the low 40s. Something to watch will be the increasing surface/low level moisture streaming up into the region east of the surface trof.
Dry conditions will continue through much of today with weak ridging in response to a digging central CONUS trough.
102 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 For today, a low pressure system will weaken as it heads northeast into the eastern Great Lakes. For Sunday into Sunday night, another low pressure system will deepen as it moves northeast from the upper Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes. As it does, a trailing weak cold front currently extending down across western Ohio, will push slowly east across the eastern portions of our area. For tonight, low pressure over the Tennessee Valley will lift northeast to eastern Kentucky/West Virginia. This energy will allow aforementioned low pressure to strengthen as it rotates northeast into the eastern Great Lakes. It will be a colder with lows dropping into the lower to mid 30s.
Weak ridging in response to a digging trough across the central US has helped to lift a stationary boundary out of the area. Another weak system will move northeastward from the Tennessee Valley into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. This will return rain chances to the region with the highest probabilities to the south and east of Pittsburgh. This northern low will have more upper level support with it, but because it is moving north of the region, the highest probabilities for rain will be across the northern half of the forecast area.
Wind gusts are a little slow coming up this morning, but there are a few finally showing up in the clear and partly cloudy areas stretching from Devils Lake down through the Wahpeton-Breckenridge area.
Surface temperatures may be near or just above freezing for much of the event as well which could limit any accumulations on roadways/sidewalks. These soundings also depict the steeper mid level lapse rates and an isothermal near freezing layer sfc-875 mb. Surface temperatures are likely to be above freezing then and the precipitation will be lighter so any remaining snow then may just melt on the roads/sidewalks.
108 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 (Today through Sunday) Warm and dry conditions remain the status quo through the weekend, as upper ridging continues to build.
Meanwhile, cooler temperatures and overcast skies continue to hold across the area this afternoon. Afternoon highs reach into the lower to upper 50s, with the warmest temperatures across southern Missouri.
Low level moisture trapped beneath an inversion will keep overcast skies this afternoon and overnight until a trough currently over the Southern Plains pushes through by tomorrow, ushering in drier air.
A cold front over the Ohio Valley is forecast to move east Sunday, pushing the moisture to the east and off the coast.
1115 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 Surface observations this morning show that the cold front has entered northwest Middle TN with temperatures on the cold side in the 40's while near 60 degrees ahead of it. The cloud cover and light southerly winds have kept temperatures in the upper 50s, but a cold front is just entering our northwest counties and we should see temperatures fall into the 40s for Stewart County before sunrise.
1119 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 (Today through Sunday) 500mb low pressure trough moves east across Texas today as mid- level kicker trough digs into northwest Mexico Sunday maintaining a general mid- upper level southwest flow over N Mexico and S Texas this weekend. After the low clouds and patchy fog lift mid to late morning, sufficient warming from the Sun is expected even though a rather thick cirrus shield is likely to keep the Sun filtered. Tonight fair skies and cool temperatures to overspread the region with most locals in the low to mid 50s to near 60 degrees in the Lower RGV and at the coast.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) After this morning's trough brought mainly virga and a few light showers to portions of the area, a strong west wind and clear skies have developed across the region behind it. As the trough continues to eject into the Mississippi Valley tonight, weak ridging takes hold across the southern Great Plains. A decaying cold front arrives behind Sunday's weak disturbance Sunday night.
Some drier air in the low levels will continue to filter into the region overnight as high level clouds remain intact from the Winter Garden region eastward into the coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor.
On Sunday a weak trough over central North Dakota will try to push east toward the Red River Valley, but it may just wash out in the Devils Lake region. 850mb temperatures are a few degrees warmer, but winds do look to remain pretty low.
A cold front should sweep this moisture offshore Sunday night.
A trough may bring more chances for precipitation towards the end of the week. A ridge will build across the region through the early part of the week, bringing warming temperatures and dry conditions. A developing trough across the Pacific Northwest will drop southward into Arizona later in the week. The models have backed off on the strength of this trough over the past few runs but it will definitely be something to monitor over the coming days as chances for wintry precipitation will return.
This general trend should continue into the evening hours, with an uptick in coverage expected overnight as models increase isentropic lift across the CWA in advance of an upper trough swinging through the Ozarks and mid-Mississippi River valley tonight into Sunday morning. There's no strong push of high pressure and colder/drier air behind the front that will push into the CWA tomorrow.
833 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 Temperatures will continue to trend warmer than average overnight and into Sunday under strong southerly flow despite advancing rain from a low pressure system.
Will monitor observations overnight to see if any statements are needed for the lower visibilities. The cold front will advance into the peninsula pinching the Caribbean high back.
5-15 knot west-southwesterly flow of moist gulf air continues to move over cooler shelf waters aiding in production of marine fog that will become progressively more dense during the overnight hours. The cold front will continue to slowly push into the area, currently looks to be sitting just NW of Baton Rouge based on surface obs. As this cold front pushes in, we will see drying and cooling conditions arrive.