Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
100 PM MDT Fri Oct 6 2023 A ridge of high pressure is building in across western Montana and north-central Idaho, and will be the dominant weather feature through the weekend.
(This evening through Saturday Night) A dry post-frontal airmass keeps the region rain free through the period while the axis of a broad upper trough shifts east towards Ark-La-Tex. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be peak in the low to mid 70s under a mix of sun and some clouds.
Breezy northwest winds behind the cold front late tonight and tomorrow with temperatures around 15 degrees below normal tomorrow afternoon. Precip is in response to a cold front to our west across middle TN. The cold front will continue to march east and into our area this evening, clearing the area around midnight. Much drier and colder air usher in behind the cold front and winds become breezy out of the northwest. Wind gusts from 15 to 20 mph are expected through the day, with gusts up to 35 mph across the highest peaks of the Appalachians. Because of the winds and colder temps, windchill values will range from the low/mid 30s to low/mid 40s above 4000 feet tomorrow so please plan accordingly if you have outdoor plans in the higher elevations.
SLV should reach freezing some areas once again tonight but not as cold as this mornings mins. Main concern tonight is how cold is it going to get? Based off the ensemble guidance products, the probability of widespread freezing temps is very low, but there will be a few areas that may reach around 32F on the plains. The San Luis valley will likely see some areas of freezing temps, but not as cold has this AM's min temps. It will start off cool, but will warm up in the lower 70s plains and around 70F SLV.
1258 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 (Today and tonight) A strong upper ridge is currently moving southeast through the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, putting the West Central Texas region under weak northwest flow aloft. Compared to the past few days, conditions today will remain rather benign with fairly light east/northeast winds and temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Mid to high level cloud cover will remain in place over the southern 1/3 of the area through the overnight hours, keeping temperatures along the I-10 corridor slightly cooler this afternoon. This will help to push a reinforcing, secondary cold front through the area overnight. A much cooler and drier airmass will follow in behind the front with dewpoints quickly dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s, allowing overnight lows to drop into the low to mid 50s.
1254 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 (Today through Saturday afternoon) It's a bit chilly out there this morning, so make sure to grab a coat as you head out the door! WV satellite shows a large upper level trough progressing across the Great Lakes this morning, keeping us under northwesterly flow aloft with mostly clear skies.
with the only exception being the highest elevations of Park Range and San Juan Mountains where just a few cumulus clouds exist.
604 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) A dry post-frontal airmass keeps the region rain free through the period while the axis of a broad upper trough shifts east towards Ark-La-Tex. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be peak in the low to mid 70s under a mix of sun and some clouds.
An upper ridge will move east tonight followed by southwest flow aloft on Saturday. The warming trend will continue with highs reaching 80F in the lowest valleys, including Boise.
This setup and the high confidence is why the Hard Freeze Warning will remain in effect. Discussion: The post frontal environment has panned out as expected with dry and cooler air advecting into the region on the backs of a persistent NW flow. Increasing heights are moving into central Wyoming as the large ridge axis continues to move east across Intermountain West. Elsewhere temperatures are still expected to drop below freezing which has solidified the Hard Freeze Warning. By the sunrise widespread frost will be common but should quickly diminish as temperatures will rebound nicely on Saturday with the ridge now firmly in place across the Front Range and we can expect temperatures back in the 60s across the region. A strong ridge will be positioned over the Rockies, with broad troughs both to the east and west.
Key Messages: * Widespread frost/freeze due to below freezing temps late tonight into early Saturday morning. An upper level trough will exit the region to the east tonight, leaving northwest flow in its wake. This flow will continue through the short term period as the region becomes situated between the trough to the east and ridging to the west. At the surface, high pressure settles in over the central part of the country tonight, which will allow the current cloud cover over the area to dissipate. Winds will become light and variable, and in combination with the clearing skies and an already cool start to the evening, will see temperatures fall to below freezing levels overnight. As the high slowly tracks east/southeast on Saturday, will see slightly warmer air get pulled back into the region.
(Tonight) As we await the arrival of the cold front later tonight, current conditions are quite saturated with many areas near 100% RH with very light winds. However the fog is expected to be short lived as winds pick up with the arrival of the cold front. Currently temperatures are around 60 degrees but will cool off another 10-15 degrees by tomorrow morning yielding morning lows ranging from the low 40s in our TN counties to mid-upper 40s in North AL.
Currently - A sprawling high pressure system centered over the Plains and the large remnants of Philippe off the mid Atlantic coast has resulted in a rather slack pressure field across the Keys. While the lower to mid level dry and warm layer will remain, there is enough room for at least isolated showers to develop.
733 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023 In the wake of a cold front, high pressure will track southeast from the Great Plains to eastern Texas.
/SW/ Tonight and Tomorrow: Temperatures will be noticeably cooler in the wake of the frontal boundary passage. Conditions will start to clear up this evening as cooler, drier air begins to enter the region. Jacket weather will officially arrive tonight with low temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Temperatures will be awfully peasant Saturday with highs in the low to mid 70s.
540 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Exiting showers will be replaced by brief dry weather before additional scattered showers develop along a passing cold front overnight. Given a turbulent boundary layer and overnight cold front arrival, removed the mention of fog as well. Turbulent mixing and strong cold advection should preclude fog development, but will drop area low temperature near to slightly below the daily average (localized wind chills in the 30s may be possible in the higher terrain and eastern OH). Cooler than average temperatures will prevail Saturday evening into Saturday night.
819 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Exiting showers will be replaced by brief dry weather before additional scattered showers develop along a passing cold front overnight. Scattered light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are beginning to develop just ahead of the surface cold front/wind shift. Turbulent mixing and strong cold advection should preclude fog development, but will drop area low temperature near to slightly below the daily average (localized wind chills in the 30s may be possible in the higher terrain and eastern OH). Cooler than average temperatures will prevail Saturday evening into Saturday night.
618 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 (This evening through Saturday) A cold front moving southward through the northern Texas Panhandle early this afternoon should arrive in the forecast area around 22Z and exit the area by 05Z. As a result have gone with a mix of the NBM and cooler MOS numbers for tonight's lows. The cool air mass will result in high temperatures about a full ten degrees cooler than normal despite full to nearly-full insolation.
The long awaited cold front begins to move through tomorrow.
Current temps have dropped into the lower 40s in several locations near the OK/KS border , while a combination of mid cloud deck and more persistent north wind keeping temps up for now from NW AR through SE OK.
743 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Tonight and Tomorrow: Temperatures will be noticeably cooler in the wake of the frontal boundary passage. Conditions will start to clear up this evening as cooler, drier air begins to enter the region. Jacket weather will officially arrive tonight with low temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Temperatures will be awfully peasant Saturday with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Thinking most areas should remain above the freezing mark given relatively warm soil temperatures in the 50s and 60s, although localized readings at or just below 32 degrees are possible, especially for low-lying and sheltered areas across central and north-central Kansas. Do not think this is enough to warrant a Freezing Warning, so will continue the inherited Frost Advisory all areas tonight into early Saturday.
637 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 A strong impulse will rotate through the base of the upper trough centered over the western Great Lakes.
936 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023 In the wake of a cold front, high pressure will track southeast from the Great Plains to eastern Texas.
724 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Exiting showers will be replaced by brief dry weather before additional scattered showers develop along a passing cold front overnight. Given a turbulent boundary layer and overnight cold front arrival, removed the mention of fog as well. Turbulent mixing and strong cold advection should preclude fog development, but will drop area low temperature near to slightly below the daily average (localized wind chills in the 30s may be possible in the higher terrain and eastern OH). Cooler than average temperatures will prevail Saturday evening into Saturday night.
It will be a warmer night ahead with forecast lows to be in the low/mid-50s. With observed temperatures being slightly cooler than forecast with clearer skies, I dropped this a few degrees, but it will still be closer than usual to the record. The weekend will be warmer as well with most locations forecasted to be 5-15 degrees warmer than normal.
(This evening through Saturday) The light showers that were affecting the metro have started to tape off, but the moisture was able to overcome the dry air at the lower levels.
525 PM MDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Breezy east winds and cooler weather on Saturday with lowland highs in the upper seventies. This reinforcement of cold air advection will result in Saturday being a bit cooler, with lowland highs in the upper 70s.
905 PM PDT Fri Oct 6 2023 A high pressure ridge along the West Coast will weaken and drift inland over the weekend.
A strong ridge of high pressure will bring cool temperatures to the Mid-South this weekend.
330 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023 A large upper level low pressure system centered over Ontario will bring active weather through the weekend.
Strong 500 MB low pressure over the Great Lakes has shoved an unseasonably cool cold front through the area.
319 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 Through tonight: Cooler, drier, and breezy conditions prevail in the wake of yesterday's front. Then, as that advection begins to tail off tonight, it will allow temps to fall to the lowest they've been since around the beginning of April by Sunday morning.
With high pressure moving over the region temperatures will fall into the 33 to 40 degrees this morning. The high pressure system will exit the area to the south tonight. As winds turn out of the south overnight, lows will be slightly warmer. As the high moves to the south of the region, southerly winds will allow warm and more moist air to move into the region. This will allow temperatures to begins a slow climb with highs Sunday in the lower 70s.
154 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023 In the wake of a cold front, high pressure will track southeast from the Great Plains to eastern Texas. An upper low will cross the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions tonight, with strong, deep northwest flow keeping a steady influx of cold air through Sunday.
1221 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 (This evening through Saturday) A cold front moving southward through the northern Texas Panhandle early this afternoon should arrive in the forecast area around 22Z and exit the area by 05Z. As a result have gone with a mix of the NBM and cooler MOS numbers for tonight's lows. The cool air mass will result in high temperatures about a full ten degrees cooler than normal despite full to nearly-full insolation.
240 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 As the trof aloft works its way east over the Ohio Valley region, high pressure will work its way in at the sfc. We will be cooler and drier today behind the cold front that passed through yesterday. Highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s today.
301 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023 - Dry today and tonight with Halloween-like cool temperatures As the broad upper trough moves east of the area this afternoon, sky cover will decrease save some fair weather diurnal cu. However, BUFKIT soundings suggest high and mid clouds will increase late tonight associated with a Manitoba wave on the back side of a developing eastern Great Lakes upper low, within the broad departed trough. within the southwestern quadrant of a large, cut-off upper-level trough. A second broad, negatively- tilted upstream upper trough entering the northwestern CONUS will likely create a brief omega-style flow pattern from the Dakotas into interior Canada. Forecast models are in, perhaps surprisingly decent, agreement on the upstream trough then undercutting the block to the central High Plains.
Cold front well depicted within the dewpoint field this morning. The boundary will continue to move south today, bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region. With the cooler air moving in, temperatures will range from about 5 to 15 degrees below normal through Sunday.
The large upper- level trough over the Great Lakes will slowly move east, allowing for ridging to slowly creep back into the High Plains.
The high pressure center will move into central Oklahoma through the course of the day with winds in the boundary layer turning to the south to southwest by late morning. Winds should be strongest along the Colorado border as with a lee side trough we should have the tightest pressure gradient. Highs will be in the mid 60s in the east to the lower 70s in the west. Tonight with south to southwest winds and a warmer 850 mb layer temperatures should be slightly warmer through the night with lows in the lower 40s. Despite the northerly winds we don't see much cold air advection and in fact we should be warmer on Sunday with plenty of sun and highs in the upper 70s.
(Today and tonight) As of 1AM, the cold front was moving through the Concho Valley and Heartland. Much cooler and drier air is already filtering in behind the front with dew points already dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s across Throckmorton and Haskell Counties.
Initial cold front has already pushed thru the state, and a secondary front with a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air is moving into NW Arkansas at the moment.
Northerly winds will remain elevated between 5-10 knots overnight behind an advancing cold front. Surface winds are shifting northwesterly across much of the forecast area this evening as the pre-frontal trough in advance of the much advertised cold front has pushed through much of our region. A few lingering light rain showers will persist for a few more hours across southern and eastern portions of our CWA along and ahead of this trough axis. The cold front will continue to surge through our area late tonight with surface winds turning northerly between 5-15 mph with a few higher gusts. Overnight lows still look to range in the mid to upper 50s across interior portions of southeast MS/southwest AL and generally in the lower to mid 60s across the remainder of the area (except upper 60s along the immediate coast/beaches).
221 AM MDT Sat Oct 7 2023 *** Glasgow radar remains down due to hardware upgrade and replacement until roughly October 16th *** MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large cold core trough dipping into the eastern of Canada and the CONUS. Across the western half a large amplitude ridge has set up with the axis running north through the Intermountain West. Northeast Montana currently sits on the warmer side of these two features with cold air at the surface expected to shallow and mix out today. Father west another trough is moving into the Gulf of Alaska and just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
No impacts in the short term period as upper level ridge overhead today shifts east Sunday with very mild and well above normal high temperatures continuing.
351 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 Key Messages: * Below freezing temperatures this morning. The trough that has led to our abnormally low temperatures will move east and out of our region through the day today bringing in a ridge behind it along with rising temperatures.
215 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 As of 130 AM Saturday morning, a deep, midlevel trough was positioned across the mid/upper MS valley with northerly flow across the forecast area. This high pressure center was contributing to clear skies, light winds, and temperatures in the 30s for most locations. Temperatures will rebound slowly throughout the day today with daytime highs returning to the low/mid-60s.
A cold front is traversing across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley this afternoon, bringing an isolated brief shower. Behind the cold front, high temperatures will drop below normal tonight through Sunday morning. Temperatures will warm up to near normal on Sunday ahead of the passage of another cold front late Sunday night. There is also an area of low level frontogenesis where a surface cold front is traversing across the region. As of 18Z, the cold front is just south of Quincy and extends through western Missouri. The cold front will be to the south of the area just after sunset. MMG/Glass The upper level low and associated trough will continue shifting to the east and "settle" over southeast Canada. On Sunday, with the high pressure to our south, south-southwesterly winds will take over.
1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 (Tonight) As we await the arrival of the cold front later tonight, current conditions are quite saturated with many areas near 100% RH with very light winds. However the fog is expected to be short lived as winds pick up with the arrival of the cold front. Currently temperatures are around 60 degrees but will cool off another 10-15 degrees by tomorrow morning yielding morning lows ranging from the low 40s in our TN counties to mid-upper 40s in North AL.
The upper low over the Great Lakes will dominate the weather through early this week, but today, it appears that we'll be in a bit of a respite from yesterday's rough conditions. We should see some additional bands of cloud cover rotate southeast around the low today, but enough periods of clearing for temperatures to recover to the mid to upper 50s. Tonight, cloud cover should be on the increase as another wave of low pressure drops into the upper low.
Radar detects just isolated showers dotting the Florida Straits to the south and southwest of the Lower Keys. Surface analysis depicts a cold front extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the central Gulf of Mexico, with the post-tropical remnant of Philippe centered between the Mid Atlantic coast and Bermuda. Aloft, dry westerly flow prevails across the Gulf and Florida, to the south of a large mid latitude trough which is progressing into the eastern CONUS.
Main focus will be of the long waited cold front passage tonight, introducing breezy northerly winds and building CAA regime following the FROPA. Highs in the upper 70's to a few low 80's (can't rule out warmer spots as the sun still has some higher angle to it regardless of CAA).
Latest model guidance indicates that cloud cover over the southern TX Panhandle and NE Rolling Plains will clear out this morning but if clouds were to linger longer than expected, we would see cooler highs in these areas.
Temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday, only topping out in the 70s for most locations, with near 80 degrees expected in the Rio Grande Plains. Should see some possible clearing of the high clouds across northern areas tonight and with the lighter winds, lows should bottom out in the 50s for most locations with even some upper 40s possible in low-lying areas of the Hill Country.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) For those in the Permian Basin, did you notice some gusty winds late last night? This was the highly anticipated cold front moving through, with surface observations currently put this front nearing the Trans Pecos. In fact, highs should be 5-8 degrees below normal in the low 70s for nearly all with 80s along the Rio Grande.
With the current dew point readings in the upper 20 to mid 30s F, it looks like the highlights for frost are on track. The low clouds that were found across much of the metro area this morning and early afternoon have finally started dissipating though the foothills still look like they're hanging on to some broken/overcast skies. Outside of the clouds, little else to speak of as broad northwesterly flow remains across the area and a ridge axis remains just to our west. Overnight, clear skies and calm winds will allow for some decent radiational cooling bringing low temps to at or just below freezing. High pressure remains overhead Saturday with flow varying from west through northwest.
The area will be under northwest flow aloft with upper level ridging in place to the west through the weekend. Into the start of the work week, deamplification of the upper ridge takes place as an upper trough starts to move into the western CONUS.
/Issued 1108 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023/ /Overnight through Sunday/ Cooler air continues to spill into North Texas tonight where temperatures are now in the low 60s along the Red River along with breezy north winds. This will continue for much of the night as high pressure builds southward into the Southern Plains. This will promote warming temperatures, and highs should climb back into the lower 80s, especially west of I-35.
204 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023 Exiting showers will be replaced by brief dry weather before additional scattered showers develop along a passing cold front overnight. Scattered light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are beginning to develop just ahead of the surface cold front/wind shift. Turbulent mixing and strong cold advection should preclude fog development, but will drop area low temperature near to slightly below the daily average (localized wind chills in the 30s may be possible in the higher terrain and eastern OH). Cooler than average temperatures will prevail Saturday evening into Saturday night. A rain/snow mix may also develop in the higher terrain of eastern Tucker county early Sunday morning if ice nuclei forms in the clouds. With temperatures at the surface likely staying above freezing, accumulation is unlikely.
High pressure will be over the northern Rockies and bring one of those autumn weekends that makes it good to feel alive.
343 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023 Key messages: 1) Cool and dry weather can be expected today and tonight due to high pressure over the Great Plains. This high will drift southeast into the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight. 2) Wind will turn to the west southwest on Sunday ahead of another weak low pressure system, causing temperatures to warm back near normal in the upper 60s to low 70s.
1146 PM MDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Breezy east winds and cooler weather on Saturday with lowland highs in the upper seventies. This reinforcement of cold air advection will result in Saturday being a bit cooler, with lowland highs in the upper 70s.
1149 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) A dry post-frontal airmass keeps the region rain free through the period while the axis of a broad upper trough shifts east towards Ark-La-Tex. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be peak in the low to mid 70s under a mix of sun and some clouds.