Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With the weak winds, nearly full sunshine, and afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, outdoor weekend activities are encouraged Saturday. Weak nebulous 500 mb flow remains forecast by all guidance through the week, with weak broad ridging at times, but persistently weak flow and minimal synoptic forcing is expected.
338 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 Low pressure will pass by to the east today and a cold front will pass through tonight from the west. High pressure behind the cold front will build overhead Sunday through the middle portion of the week.
Expect an increase in showers, with a few thunderstorms, with the highest rain chances across the northern Edwards Plateau.
As weak disturbances embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft interact with the higher terrain west of the river, convection should develop then move eastward into the Rio Grande plains.
It's already warmer aloft than 24 hours ago, and much warmer air yet will advect in aloft over the course of this Saturday with southwesterly to northwesterly winds (granted weak) through the column. This is the result of a large upper-level ridge expanding eastward into the Northern Plains, and the warming trend will continue through the next several days as well.
230 AM CDT Sat May 20 2023 (Issued 230 AM CDT Sat May 20 2023) Today through Sunday: Northwesterly winds will be a little breezy initially this morning, otherwise we'll see lighter winds as high pressure builds into the area. Highs today will be around 70 for inland areas with temperatures a few degrees warmer on Sunday. Areas along Lake Michigan will be several degrees cooler.
150 AM CDT Sat May 20 2023 Today will mark the beginning of a quiescent stretch of weather characterized by upper-level blocking and surface ridging. Highs today will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s except in northwestern Indiana where onshore flow behind a weak backdoor cold front will hold readings in the lower 60s. Tomorrow will be warmer with highs in the upper 70s.
329 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 Look for dry weather with cooler temperatures following a cold frontal passage yesterday. Highs will primarily be in the middle 60s, except cooler near Lake Michigan.
1133 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) High pressure in the GOM is producing pleasant weather across SE TX and SW LA. Saturday a cutoff low and its associated trough axis will push across Acadiana. After the trough passage, winds will shift and start to come from the north, dropping RH values but temperatures will remain in the upper 80s.
(Today through Sunday Night) At the time of publication (3 AM CT), an analysis of the latest surface stations indicates the presence of a weakly defined surface cold frontal boundary extending roughly from Bastrop northwestward through the Brazos Valley and towards the Madisonville area. With the resultant loss of WAA, some locations to the north of I-10 can expect to see highs limited to the lower 80s this afternoon. Lows will range from the low 60s in the northern zones to the low 70s closer to the cost.
329 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 A cold front will cross the region from the northwest tonight then settle southeast of the area on Sunday.
248 AM CDT Sat May 20 2023 Cool high pressure is providing dry air to the region, and with clear skies, we're seeing a rather strong radiational cooling night. Not as cool of lows for Sunday night with values in the low to mid 50s.
A cold front is situated just northwest of the area this morning and will move southeast through the morning into the afternoon hours. Cooler/drier air will move in overnight, with lows falling into the low to mid 60s.
Discussion: This afternoon a mid-level trough has moved out of central Kansas as moisture is pooling along a 850mb boundary that has allowed a widespread shield of showers to overspread the area south of Highway 36. CAA will allow temperatures to fall back into the low to mid 40s. High pressure builds into the area for the weekend making for very pleasant conditions. Highs Saturday will rise into the lower 70s before rising into the upper 70s on Sunday with light winds and sunny skies.
A frontal boundary is currently stretches from the central Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi River Valley. 500mb analysis shows a mid level trough across the central US. The trough will also swing eastward today and move across the CWA tonight/early Sunday. The mid level trough may lend to some upper support for convection overnight.
(Today through Sunday) Through the weekend, the upper pattern will feature a trough across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with a ridge building through the Gulf into the Deep South and Southeast. At the surface, flow will generally be weak as south Florida resides in the calm area between a ridge moving into the eastern CONUS and another in the west-central Atlantic. Highs will peak in the lower 90s across the interior each afternoon, with upper 80s more common near the coasts. Heat indices will near the 100 degree mark in the warmer interior locations. Overnight lows will remain on the high end of the climatological envelope, especially along the east coast.
Current temperatures are in the upper 70s to near 80 with dewpoints in the low 70s.
305 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 The upper low continues to drop into Lower Michigan early this morning. This may lead to some quick drops in visibility through the early morning hours, and may also keep temperatures slightly warmer than expected. Otherwise, as skies clear out, expect temperatures across the western UP to drop into the mid and upper 30s, while lingering cloud cover in the eastern UP keeps temperatures a few degrees warmer. Some patchy frost is possible where temperatures cool to near freezing. By 12Z Saturday, the low that forced showers today will be departed and PoPs will be exiting the region.
With increasing warm air advection, 850 mb temperatures will increase through the day, and surface temperatures will respond in like with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Our area will be in a northwesterly upper level flow - with ridging to the west and troughing to the east - and this will be conducive for bringing Canadian smoke back into the region during the day. This may impact high temperatures just a bit, and in coordination with surrounding offices stayed on the lower side of guidance with respect to highs - topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Highs will only make it into the low 70s for most.
High pressure will bring warm temperatures to inland areas through mid week, with slight cooling expected thereafter. (Today and tonight) High pressure aloft will encompass much of the West with upstream low pressure spinning over the Gulf of Alaska. Our area will be along the western periphery of the upper ridge with modest onshore flow provided via strengthening high pressure offshore. Temperatures will be seasonal today, but a touch cooler compared to the past few days.
Effective cold front/convergence line is leading these showers new development, with KY Mesonet showing this line well, running from Shelbyville to Hartford and Princeton. Looking at highs in the lower 70s for most.
Northeasterly surface flow will continue to gradually weaken this morning as a broad ridge axis settles over Oklahoma southwestward into the South Plains region, with light winds expected area-wide throughout the day.
1251 AM MDT Sat May 20 2023 The upper level low across the northern Great Plains continues to push eastward into the Great Lake Region. Ridging will continue to build in from the west from the Pacific northwest as convergence aloft increases through the upper Rocky Mountains. As a result, the continued smoke that has come out of Canada will improve as the aforementioned ridge pushes the majority of it to the northeast away from the CWA.
A cold front will move into Central Alabama on Saturday.
113 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 Surface observations depict a cold front located near the KY/IL border with on-going convection painted on radar. High pressure shifts east tomorrow as an upper level trough and advancing cold front moves into the region.
342 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 The upper low continues to drop into Lower Michigan early this morning. This may lead to some quick drops in visibility through the early morning hours, and may also keep temperatures slightly warmer than expected. Otherwise, as skies clear out, expect temperatures across the western UP to drop into the mid and upper 30s, while lingering cloud cover in the eastern UP keeps temperatures a few degrees warmer. Some patchy frost is possible where temperatures cool to near freezing. Temperatures on Sunday will be 10-15 degrees cooler than Saturday near Lake Superior with cool northeast winds off the Lake.
A weak upper level short wave trough will pass through northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado late this afternoon and evening and this should provide enough lift to produce a shower or thunderstorm over the northwest. Highs today are expected to be in the lower to mid 70's with readings on Sunday getting into the mid 70's to lower 80's.
The most difficult aspect with this system has been trying to nail down the precise timing of the cold frontal passage and its resultant rainfall. Skies will clear within a few hours of rain ending across the area, and should remain that way through the remainder of the short term as high pressure dominates the sensible weather. Looks like nothing but quite weather in the extended, as a strong ridge of high pressure dominates the weatherscape. Each night we can expect at least modest ridge valley temperature differences due to light winds and mostly clear skies. A cold front will bring a period of showers to all TAF sites between ~09z and 14z this morning. The back edge of the steadier rain should progress southeast over the region from about 14Z-22Z as the cold front passes.
High pressure will bring warm temperatures to inland areas through mid week, with slight cooling expected thereafter. On the broad scale, weather pattern will not change in the short term with ridge high pressure residing over western CONUS and an upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska.
1222 AM CDT Sat May 20 2023 (The rest of tonight) Cold front has pushed into far southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas this evening.
The aforementioned fntl bndry wl cont to drop to SE today, as the assocd upper trof axis swings thru the region. Have kept the fcst dry durg this timeframe as soundings cont to indc a pronounced area of dry air in the lower lvls of the atmosphere.
1055 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 (This evening through tonight) A strong cold front is advancing to the southeast across central Oklahoma this afternoon. An unstable air mass (MLCAPE ~2000 to 2500 J/kg) combined with moderate shear (effective bulk shear ~30 to 35 knots) will be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms as the cold front moves into south central/southeast Oklahoma. The cold front will continue to move to the southeast and will exit southeast Oklahoma early to mid-evening--ending any convection.
1231 AM CDT Sat May 20 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough over the Gulf of California, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front has pushed to south of the Pecos, but the colder air has hung up diurnally as expected, and compressional warming ahead of the front should add a few degrees onto current temps before the afternoon is out.
1212 AM CDT Sat May 20 2023 A weak surface cold frontal trough is currently moving across northeastern IL into northwestern IN. Otherwise, dry and seasonable weather is expected for Saturday, with inland highs topping out in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies. However, an onshore wind will make for cooler conditions (around 60) along the northeastern IL and northwestern IN Lake Michigan shores.
424 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 A cold front will continue to slide east across the area this morning before exiting to the east by this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west.
Temperatures will lower to near normal during the second half of the week, as an upper level low moves over Central California. An upper level ridge of high pressure remains overhead while a weak cyclonic circulation lifts slowly northward toward Arizona. The ridge over the region continues to produce well above normal temperatures across central California.
555 AM CDT Sat May 20 2023 Today will mark the beginning of a quiescent stretch of weather characterized by upper-level blocking and surface ridging. Highs today will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s except in northwestern Indiana where onshore flow behind a weak backdoor cold front will hold readings in the lower 60s. Tomorrow will be warmer with highs in the upper 70s.
704 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 (Today through Sunday) Through the weekend, the upper pattern will feature a trough across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with a ridge building through the Gulf into the Deep South and Southeast. At the surface, flow will generally be weak as south Florida resides in the calm area between a ridge moving into the eastern CONUS and another in the west-central Atlantic. Highs will peak in the lower 90s across the interior each afternoon, with upper 80s more common near the coasts. Heat indices will near the 100 degree mark in the warmer interior locations. Overnight lows will remain on the high end of the climatological envelope, especially along the east coast.
High pressure aloft will build into the Northern Rockies through Sunday afternoon for well above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions; however, there will a weak perturbation that will bring isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms, mostly for mountain areas.
High pressure over the western US and Canada will maintain unseasonably warm conditions through Saturday, with lingering moisture and instability supporting a chance of showers and thunderstorms along the Casacdes each afternoon and evening.
638 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 A cold front will cross the region from the northwest tonight then settle southeast of the area on Sunday.
636 AM CDT Sat May 20 2023 Issued at 155 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2023 Overview: Quiet and cool weather expected today with sunny skies and highs in the low 70s. Expect afternoon highs to only reach the low 70s. The high will gradually shift east during the day, allowing for light winds to turn back to the south.
There is about 20-30kt of 6km bulk shear, but the low stratus will keep heating and destabilization down a bit until later this afternoon.
617 AM CDT Sat May 20 2023 (Today through Sunday Night) At the time of publication (3 AM CT), an analysis of the latest surface stations indicates the presence of a weakly defined surface cold frontal boundary extending roughly from Bastrop northwestward through the Brazos Valley and towards the Madisonville area. With the resultant loss of WAA, some locations to the north of I-10 can expect to see highs limited to the lower 80s this afternoon. Lows will range from the low 60s in the northern zones to the low 70s closer to the cost.
This is of a ridge of high pressure which continues to linger to our east. The location of the ridge access is keeping southern Oregon and northern California under deep southwest flow. The overall weather pattern changes beginning Sunday as a frontal boundary and low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest, mainly to our north. This cooler pattern will allow temperatures to be seasonable, if still a bit above normal.
Max temps generally in the middle 80s across SE GA and upper 80s/near 90 across inland NE FL, with slightly cooler temps along the Atlantic Coast. (Through Tonight) Weak upper ridge will move over the forecast area through Tonight, leading to a drier short term period with only isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers/t-storms mainly over our southern counties in n-ctrl FL.
928 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 A cold front will continue to slide east across the area this morning before exiting to the east by this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west.
603 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 Look for dry weather with cooler temperatures following a cold frontal passage yesterday. Highs will primarily be in the middle 60s, except cooler near Lake Michigan.
751 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 (Through Tonight) Weak upper ridge will move over the forecast area through Tonight, leading to a drier short term period with only isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers/t-storms mainly over our southern counties in n-ctrl FL.
709 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 The upper low continues to drop into Lower Michigan this morning, and water vapor imagery shows plenty of dry midlevel air with skies clearing out behind the exiting system. Temperatures on Sunday will be 10-15 degrees cooler than Saturday near Lake Superior with cool northeast winds off the Lake.
527 AM MDT Sat May 20 2023 The upper level low across the northern Great Plains continues to push eastward into the Great Lake Region. Ridging will continue to build in from the west from the Pacific northwest as convergence aloft increases through the upper Rocky Mountains. As a result, the continued smoke that has come out of Canada will improve as the aforementioned ridge pushes the majority of it to the northeast away from the CWA.
Cooler highs today in the lower 70s, with lows tonight of 45 to 50.
Cool high pressure is providing dry air to the region, and with clear skies, we're seeing a rather strong radiational cooling night. Not as cool of lows for Sunday night with values in the low to mid 50s.
Notable little trough dropping through Saskatchewan into eastern Montana continues to produce a line of rain showers with a few thunderstorms. Ridging over the western United States will dominate the pattern as a warmup continues. Highs will be a bit warmer today ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s.
The most difficult aspect with this system has been trying to nail down the precise timing of the cold frontal passage and its resultant rainfall. Skies will clear within a few hours of rain ending across the area, and should remain that way through the remainder of the short term as high pressure dominates the sensible weather. Looks like nothing but quite weather in the extended, as a strong ridge of high pressure dominates the weatherscape. Each night we can expect at least modest ridge valley temperature differences due to light winds and mostly clear skies. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to develop from northwest to southeast as a cold front with widespread showers crosses the area.
554 AM CDT Sat May 20 2023 (Today) Cooler airmass continues to settle over the region early this morning with north winds continuing to gust around 20 mph across southeast OK.
1028 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 A cold front will cross the region from the northwest tonight then settle southeast of the area on Sunday.
617 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 Occasional showers can be expected this morning as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through the first part of the upcoming week. The cold front is located across our far southeastern counties early this morning where a broken line of showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm is lifting northeast across portions of northeast Kentucky and south Central Ohio. With cooler air filtering into the region, highs today will range from the mid 60s in the northwest to the lower 70s across the south.
DDV (Issued 230 AM CDT Sat May 20 2023) Today through Sunday: Northwesterly winds will be a little breezy initially this morning, otherwise we'll see lighter winds as high pressure builds into the area. Highs today will be around 70 for inland areas with temperatures a few degrees warmer on Sunday. Areas along Lake Michigan will be several degrees cooler.
537 AM MDT Sat May 20 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the western CONUS with ridge topping impulse diving southeast across ALTA. Return flow will usher warmer air back into the region as western CONUS ridge expands eastward.
744 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 Aviation - Low Clouds Through Midday, Then Clearing A region of stratus across northern Lower Michigan will propagate S/SE into the morning hours as wraparound low level moisture, associated with the departing closed upper low, advects into the area.
918 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 Occasional showers can be expected this morning as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through the first part of the upcoming week. Further to the N, where afternoon cloud cover will linger a bit, highs will only top out in the lower/mid 60s.
654 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 A cold front will continue to slide east across the area this morning before exiting to the east by this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west.
The latest model guidance In the low levels, weak flow and modest moisture will continue to support the development of scattered to numerous showers with possible storms this afternoon and early evening.
350 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023 19Z sfc analysis shows a cold front pressing south through eastern Kentucky. They all depict a compact closed low trough lifting into the eastern Great Lakes with its axis fading out over Kentucky this evening.
Northerly surface winds will increase the dry air advection and cooler air advection into the area.
High pressure will bring warm temperatures to inland areas through mid week, with slight cooling expected thereafter. Satellite imagery this morning reveals widespread stratus across the interior valleys, with only the higher elevations and parts of the interior East Bay remaining clear. (Today and tonight) High pressure aloft will encompass much of the West with upstream low pressure spinning over the Gulf of Alaska. Our area will be along the western periphery of the upper ridge with modest onshore flow provided via strengthening high pressure offshore. Temperatures will be seasonal today, but a touch cooler compared to the past few days.
Aloft, anticyclonic flow is noted over the region, with moisture streaming around a relatively flat ridge over the Gulf of Mexico per recent UA analysis and WV imagery.
213 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023 Key Points: - Warmer tomorrow, then gradual warming trend through the week.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday Night/ A pleasant Saturday is underway with temperatures several degrees below normal following last night's cold frontal passage. By tomorrow morning, a dense mid-level cloud deck will be spreading into the area from the southwest as broad troughing continues across the southwestern CONUS. With dry air present within the lower levels, its unlikely that much precip would be capable of reaching the surface.
Following a cool and clear night tonight, we should see a similar weather day for Sunday, albeit a bit warmer as inland temperatures climb into the mid to upper 70s under mainly sunny skies. Onshore winds associated with this will thus result in much cooler afternoon temperatures near the lake.
(Tonight) The cold front and any thunderstorms/showers will be exiting our southeast counties by 00-01Z. Clearing of the lower clouds will occur from northwest to southeast this evening as drier north flow develops behind the cold front. Temperatures should drop into the middle 50s for most areas before morning, perhaps into the lower 50s in a few pockets of southern middle TN.
1129 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023 The upper trough axis, evident on water vapor imagery, is still lagging a bit, so will continue to see the band of widespread light showers slowly push to the southeast through the afternoon. Temperatures will struggle in the post-frontal cool advective setup with highs only topping out in the low 70s for many. Effective cold front/convergence line is leading these showers new development, with KY Mesonet showing this line well, running from Shelbyville to Hartford and Princeton. Looking at highs in the lower 70s for most.