Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
140 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2023 19z surface analysis had weak low over central MT with warm front into western NE. Disposition of upper ridge main forecast concern.
131 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Dry high pressure will continue to build across the region through the weekend and into the next work week.
The Pacific trough that is currently over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies is slowly progressing southwest off the California coast and starting to cut off as the subtropical high pressure over the southwest is building back and starting to build a ridge into the northern Rockies region.
Additionally, relative humidity values will gradually increase with the return southerly flow as dewpoint values are forecast to climb into the low to mid 70s areawide by Saturday night. Overnight low temperatures from the lower 60s across McCurtain county to the lower 70s across north Louisiana and Deep East Texas tonight are forecast to climb in to the mid 70s across much of the region by Saturday night. Otherwise, afternoon highs on Saturday will range from the lower 90s north of I-30 to near 100 degrees across the Lakes Region of Deep East Texas.
(This afternoon through Saturday Night) A weak upper low pressure system moving north out of the Gulf is spreading showers and thunderstorms as far north as our southern counties. Hourly temperatures are running a bit warmer than the previous forecast suggested, so I increased our highs this afternoon for areas where sunny skies have prevailed this morning. Southerly flow and residual cloud cover will likely keep our temperatures several degrees warmer tonight.
BB/03 (Now through Saturday) We had to see it to believe it but it is indeed raining across the area this afternoon! A unsettled pattern will continue this afternoon and into the day on Saturday as we remain sandwiched between an upper low to our west and a area of high pressure to our east. Some locations on Saturday may not make it out of the upper 70s with most of the area in the low to mid 80s. Lows will remain muggy with lows in the low 70s given the increased moisture.
122 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Water vapor imagery was showing an upper low deepening and dropping into northern California. This was allowing an upper ridge to build over the Southern and Central Plains, extending northward into eastern parts of Wyoming and Montana. Warmer temperatures were over the area today and will be Saturday as well, with highs in the low to mid 90s. As the ridge builds in on Saturday, this gives more anticyclonic flow and should decrease the chance of convection over the area. Given that monsoonal moisture will be pulling into the area as the low deepens over the west, will keep the slight chance of rainfall over the higher terrain.
Mostly sunny conditions this afternoon as ridging nudges into the area. Upper ridging will nudge into the area through Saturday for warmer, drier conditions for most areas. An upper low across CA will bring a slight chance for thunderstorms along the southern Cascades Saturday evening into Saturday night.
244 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2023 The strong ridge of high pressure over the central plains is quickly pushing its influence through much of the continental U. Even this far away, that high pressure extends our direction and will remain over our region through this weekend.
Models continue to spit out a little bit of rainfall across eastern Upper this evening as the low-level jet kicks in. Each day through the period will become warmer and more humid, as upper-level heights build and southerly low-level flow persists.
1002 AM MDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Upper-level ridging prevails across the Treasure State next few days, keeping most locations mostly sunny and warm with some isolated showers and thunderstorms developing in Southwest Montana.
244 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Broad high pressure dominates over the eastern US through Saturday.
(This evening through Saturday Night) An upper level trough/low currently looming overhead is expected to push N/NW this weekend.
The 594 dam upper level high currently over KS/OK border will remain in place as an inverted trough moves north along the TX/LA state line this evening. By tomorrow afternoon the inverted trough will close off into a low pressure system as it tracks towards the DFW area. Therefore the upper level ridge will remain over the FA, as it elongates around the northern periphery of the low. Being that we are on the western end of the upper level ridge, subsidence aloft will keep any moisture associated with the low out of the FA. Lee troughing across eastern CO will give way to south to southwesterly flow over the FA tomorrow afternoon.
1123 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Broad high pressure dominates over the eastern US today through Saturday.
Thunderstorms are most likely in the lower deserts and on the desert mountain slopes.
220 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2023 An upper level ridge is currently centered over south central Kansas late this afternoon with low pressure over northwest California.
(This evening through Saturday) Discussion: High pressure will be centered over the Appalachians through the period, keeping a dry pattern across the region. Scattered to broken high clouds on the fringes of a low pressure system over LA will be over the southern half of the area overnight, but with little impact to the forecast. Tomorrow will be similar to today, with mostly sunny skies and higher in the lower to mid 80s in most spots.
Lows tonight will dip into the low 70s inland to around 80 along the coast. However, at 700mb there are hints of a weak inverted trough or low from Deep South Texas that could provide enough moisture and lift support over the Victoria Crossroads to produce a few showers and thunderstorms along the afternoon sea breeze.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler for Labor Day.
Low pressure sliding down the coast from the Pacific Northwest will bring continued cooling into the weekend. This low has combined with elevated humidity, water vapor content higher since the precipitable water on today's 12z Oakland upper air sounding was 1. This will result in additional cooler than early September normal daytime highs Saturday, along with periodic, non-widespread, mainly light precipitation.
Another stellar day on the docket as the region remains under the influence of a high pressure ridge with deep subsidence. Mainly clear skies are expected with temperatures this afternoon recovering into the low and mid 80s for much of the forecast area as surface flow veers around to the E/SE. This will bring in much warmer temperatures than yesterday along along with gradual higher humidity.
A pressure trough associated with the upper level wave will kick out much of the near surface smoke and switching the wind direction to westerly. A low level thermal ridge is going to build over the Plains Saturday ushering in well above normal temperatures to the region. High temperatures will increase into the lower to upper 90s state wide. Temperatures could range on the higher side out west and even across the south central as the aforementioned pressure trough moves through the region bringing in warm downsloping winds by the late afternoon. An upper level ridge will continue to build over the Northern Plains ushering in the anticipated warmer weather this weekend. This will aid the development of a strong low level thermal ridge across the Plains.
This will keep overnight lows slightly warmer. The center of a mid and upper level ridge will shift slightly to the north and east tonight through Saturday. Meanwhile, a compact upper low, currently over northern Louisiana, will move to the west. Despite the low drifting to the west, instability will remain limited for shower and storm develop Saturday afternoon.
(This evening through Saturday) Upper-level ridging has settled into West Central Texas and will continue to provide hot, dry, and calm conditions across our area into Saturday. Afternoon water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning over far east Texas and Louisiana.
1121 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 (Today and tonight) The above average temperature trend will continue today under the influence of the upper level ridge. Expect afternoon temperatures to be very similar to yesterday, but 1-3 degrees warmer from I-35 westward as the thermal ridge continues to amplify there. Dewpoints will drop slightly tonight from central to eastern OK so would expect overnight lows Saturday morning to be a few degrees cooler there.
Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in the lower to middle 70s and highs tomorrow will be back in the upper 90s to 102 degrees.
1157 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper-level ridge remains centered over the central Plains and extends southwestward across west Texas this morning. This should allow low temperatures to be a few degrees warmer tonight.
Low pressure sliding down the coast from the Pacific Northwest will bring continued cooling into the weekend. The polar jet stream north of an eastern Pacific 500 mb high pressure system has since yesterday continued to develop a 500 mb cut off low (565 decameters) over northern California. (Today and tonight) Upper troughing deepens along the West Coast as an accompanying cold front continues its southward progression through the Bay Area and Central Coast. Area profilers place the marine layer depth at 1,500 to 2,000+ feet along the coast, with some inland disruption occurring as the cold front passes through. Thereafter we'll see small chances for instability showers this afternoon and tonight as lapse rates steepen with the upper trough overhead.
Only a few hundreths to one tenth of an inch or so of QPF is expected from these light showers before they gradually dissipate overnight as the area of low pressure gradually meanders into the lower Mississippi Valley.
343 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 (This evening through Saturday) As the period begins, a ridge of high pressure is moving eastward from New England towards the western Atlantic. As it does, high pressure ridging along the lee side of the Appalachians is spreading from northeast to southwest across the forecast area, setting up a CAD wedge over much of north Georgia. Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints are expected within as it continues to spread southwestward. Overnight lows will drop into the 60s across the area, with the exception of the higher elevations of the far northeast, which will drop into the 50s.
1245 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 High pressure dominates at the sfc today with ridging building aloft. Temperatures will be warmer today as we kick off a warming trend heading into the holiday weekend. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s today with mostly clear skies and light winds. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s as ridging continues to build aloft.
947 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 High pressure at the surface continues over the Southern Appalachians tonight. High clouds that are dense in the south will continue to spread over the area as low pressure lies over Louisiana along a nearly stationary frontal boundary along the Gulf coast. (This evening through Saturday) Discussion: High pressure will be centered over the Appalachians through the period, keeping a dry pattern across the region. Scattered to broken high clouds on the fringes of a low pressure system over LA will be over the southern half of the area overnight, but with little impact to the forecast. Tomorrow will be similar to today, with mostly sunny skies and higher in the lower to mid 80s in most spots.
741 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 High pressure will keep conditions dry throughout the Labor Day weekend. High pressure currently centered over Pennsylvania should maintain control across the Mid Atlantic through Saturday. The cooler temperatures this morning reflected this considerably dry air with 50s observed for most locations and Burkes Garden recording a low of 44 degrees. It will get a little warmer by Saturday afternoon compared to today with highs reaching the mid 80s in the Piedmont and mid to upper 70s in the mountains. The dry weather will persist through the remainder of the Labor day weekend as high pressure remains in firm control across the Appalachian Mountains. Temperatures will continue to increase each passing day due to an upper level ridge building eastward from the Plains.
Convective activity has remained almost exclusively over the higher terrain today as expected, and any lingering showers this evening will continue to do the same. The strong low over the Pacific Northwest will slowly shift south down the west coast while the broad ridge over the Midwest and Southeast will stay about in place. Overnight low temperatures are forecast generally 5 to 10 F warmer than normal across most of the area. Expect more isolated showers and storms across the high country in the afternoon and evening, precipitation should be light, and there may be some modest outflow gusts.
608 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) A mid-upper level ridge over NW Texas will continue to be the most dominate feature continuing to provide hot subsidence air through the first half of the holiday weekend. A mid-level closed low over Louisiana settles over Northeast Texas by Saturday night while the troughs axis nears the Texas coast. Models do not show any appreciable increase in moisture west of the trough with exception over the coastal waters, so will keep the forecast dry for inland areas.
428 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2023 19z surface analysis had weak low over central MT with warm front into western NE. Disposition of upper ridge main forecast concern.
1041 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Broad high pressure dominates over the eastern US through Saturday.
Partly cloudy and mild overnight, then less in the way of showers/storms on Saturday as a cold front backdoors its way SW across the area followed by a less humid air mass filtering into the region, with highs mostly in the lower 90s. Left over tropical moisture from Idalia coupled with moisture from a low pressure system near Louisiana, will keep PoPs elevated today and tomorrow.
An inverted v sounding has the lower 500 mb of the atmosphere in the dry with enough moisture above to squeak out 0.
720 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Broad high pressure dominates over the eastern US through Saturday.
A ridge affects our region through the middle of the upcoming week. Simultaneously, the core of this ridge should shift from the northeastern United States to the southern Appalachians. At the surface, the ridge continues influencing our region as the parent high pressure center migrates from the northeastern U. Saturday night will be noticeably warmer and muggier. 850mb temperatures into the lower 20s brings low to mid 90s west, upper 80s to low 90s east.
An upper level ridge is currently centered over south central Kansas late this afternoon with low pressure over northwest California.
536 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2023 An upper level ridge is currently centered over south central Kansas late this afternoon with low pressure over northwest California.
Currently - A large high pressure blanketing the eastern United States extends a loose ridge axis down the Florida Peninsula. Much of this is in a rather moist and shallow boundary layer as there is significant dew point depressions through much of the lower levels. Expect overnight lows to be above normal in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the upper 70s. High pressure over the eastern United States will build southwards across Keys waters through the overnight period.
735 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 VFR conditions will prevail as dry air associated with high pressure continues to hold over the area. This high will shift east and a return south-southwest flow will increase on Saturday. Low to mid level ridging marking conditions late this afternoon. Standard nocturnal cooling environment early tonight as lingering surface ridging affords a respectable window for radiational cooling, likely providing a MinT late this evening before flow veers to south/southwest upon warm frontal approach after midnight. Warm frontal boundary lifts across the area Saturday. Moisture quality still appears too lean across the lowest 700 mb to offer better shower potential, but cannot rule out a brief shower or sprinkles. Sprawling large scale upper ridge featured throughout much of the central/southern conus remains forecast to build northeast with time over the next several days.
801 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Discussion: High pressure will be centered over the Appalachians through the period, keeping a dry pattern across the region. Scattered to broken high clouds on the fringes of a low pressure system over LA will be over the southern half of the area overnight, but with little impact to the forecast. Tomorrow will be similar to today, with mostly sunny skies and higher in the lower to mid 80s in most spots.
943 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 A couple of bands of mid- and high-level clouds will continue to stream southwest into the area on the northern periphery of a weak upper low over Northwest Louisiana. Additionally, relative humidity values will gradually increase with the return southerly flow as dewpoint values are forecast to climb into the low to mid 70s areawide by Saturday night. Overnight low temperatures from the lower 60s across McCurtain county to the lower 70s across north Louisiana and Deep East Texas tonight are forecast to climb in to the mid 70s across much of the region by Saturday night. Otherwise, afternoon highs on Saturday will range from the lower 90s north of I-30 to near 100 degrees across the Lakes Region of Deep East Texas.
643 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) A weak upper low pressure system moving north out of the Gulf is spreading showers and thunderstorms as far north as our southern counties. Hourly temperatures are running a bit warmer than the previous forecast suggested, so I increased our highs this afternoon for areas where sunny skies have prevailed this morning. Southerly flow and residual cloud cover will likely keep our temperatures several degrees warmer tonight.
High temperatures will be cooler than normal today and Saturday. We remain in a "Type IV" monsoon pattern today, with a blocking upper ridge centered over the central US, and a quasi-stationary closed upper low centered near the Oregon/California coast. The aforementioned trough slides ever so slightly south and east for Saturday.
With high pressure over eastern CONUS, a persistent low over Canada, and a slow moving developing low over the plains, PGF will drive south to southwesterly winds in our region, a pattern that will persist through the weekend.
250 PM PDT Fri Sep 1 2023 An upper-level low will linger near northern California through the weekend with drier and warmer conditions expected for the Inland Northwest the next couple of days.
Broad high pressure extends across the area, with relatively light surface winds. A pressure trough associated with the upper level wave will kick out much of the near surface smoke and switching the wind direction to westerly. A low level thermal ridge is going to build over the Plains Saturday ushering in well above normal temperatures to the region. High temperatures will increase into the lower to upper 90s state wide. Temperatures could range on the higher side out west and even across the south central as the aforementioned pressure trough moves through the region bringing in warm downsloping winds by the late afternoon. An upper level ridge will continue to build over the Northern Plains ushering in the anticipated warmer weather this weekend. This will aid the development of a strong low level thermal ridge across the Plains.
634 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) An upper level trough/low currently looming overhead is expected to push N/NW this weekend.
619 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Upper-level ridging has settled into West Central Texas and will continue to provide hot, dry, and calm conditions across our area into Saturday. Afternoon water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning over far east Texas and Louisiana.
515 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2023 The strong low over the Pacific Northwest will slowly shift south down the west coast while the broad ridge over the Midwest and Southeast will stay about in place. Overnight low temperatures are forecast generally 5 to 10 F warmer than normal across most of the area. Expect more isolated showers and storms across the high country in the afternoon and evening, precipitation should be light, and there may be some modest outflow gusts.
(Tonight) An upper low was now over northern Lousiana, with a vort lobe/convergence zone associated with it lifting north through central AL.
540 PM PDT Fri Sep 1 2023 An upper-level low will linger near northern California through the weekend with drier and warmer conditions expected for the Inland Northwest the next couple of days.
521 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Dry high pressure will continue to build across the region through the weekend and into the next work week.
(This evening through Saturday) As the period begins, a ridge of high pressure is moving eastward from New England towards the western Atlantic. As it does, high pressure ridging along the lee side of the Appalachians is spreading from northeast to southwest across the forecast area, setting up a CAD wedge over much of north Georgia. Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints are expected within as it continues to spread southwestward. Overnight lows will drop into the 60s across the area, with the exception of the higher elevations of the far northeast, which will drop into the 50s.
747 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Dry high pressure will continue to build across the region through the weekend and into the next work week.
1050 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023 Dry high pressure will continue to build across the region through the weekend and into the next work week.
South and southeast winds were providing convergence of this moisture as a broad low pressure area existed from near the Mississippi River aloft, to the Alabama Mississippi state line at the surface. The trend of decreasing activity remains for the remainder of the night as the low level convergence wanes. The potential for a few lingering thunderstorms will exist across the southwest portion of the area while more stable conditions look to materialize further north and east as a cooler easterly flow becomes more established late into the overnight period. Lows will range from the mid 60s in the higher terrain east to the low 70s far south and west. Mostly cloudy skies will linger as a moist easterly flow prevails in the lower levels on Saturday.
/Issued 1231 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023/ /Through Sunday/ A slow-moving upper low presently centered over Louisiana will be our main feature of interest through the short term period. While we will remain situated on the drier northwest periphery of this low today with seasonably hot and dry weather, it will offer chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday as it becomes centered over North Texas during the afternoon. While this system was initially more tropical and barotropic in origin, it has since transitioned to more of a baroclinic low, and the attendant cooler mid-level temperatures will act to locally steepen lapse rates beneath its core.
421 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023 A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather of eastern Kentucky this weekend and beyond. The ridge will allow for light and variable winds and steadily warming temperatures across the area. The period will start with ridging at all levels from the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians through the southeast CONUS. A weak mid/upper level low will be riding northward through the southern plains around the western side of the ridge early in the week. It will get picked up by a trough lifting northeast out of the western CONUS.