Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Temperatures trending cooler but still warmer than average for much of the forecast period. Temperature observations across southern MN are in the lower 30s with light southerly winds whereas north of this occluded boundary still observing warmer air that is being wrapped in by a slow moving system over the central CONUS. Cooler, drier air will slowly erode the IFR cigs to MVFR and eventually low VFR overnight. Winds have shifted to the S behind the cold front and we'll see light speeds before turning light & variable overnight into Wednesday.
Temperatures will peak in the upper 70s, with dew points holding strong in the lower 70s. From synopsis, a weak cold front will push through the Florida Keys coastal waters this afternoon, with gentle breezes shifting to the northwest to north.
High pressure shifts quickly east on Wednesday ahead of the next approaching cold front. This provides for a brief warm up in temperatures with highs in the lower to middle 60s. This warm up will be brief as a strong cold front passes across the forecast area Wednesday night.
(Tonight) Cloud cover continues to diminish from west to east as drier air works its way into the region behind the cold front. Lows in the mid 30s will be common in most locations given the cooler post frontal air mass that will be working its way into the area.
142 PM MST Tue Dec 26 2023 - The cut-off low in the Central/Northern Plains continues to bring snow to eastern WY tonight into tomorrow. The upper-low/trough that brought accumulating snow to portions of the area is still spinning in the Central Plains. The cut-off low is producing heavy snow/blizzard conditions and Mixed precipitation in portions of the Central/Northern Plains. Snow will taper off tonight as the cut-off low begins progressing east. Tomorrow the cut-off low will be trekking eastward as a ridge comes in behind it. This ridge should hang around until this weekend, which will keep conditions dry and mild.
1220 PM MST Tue Dec 26 2023 Upper low centered near Kansas City today will meander eastward across Missouri the next couple of days.
Tonight, a bit of light snow may work into southern Wisconsin west and southwest of Madison as some vorticity from the churning upper low over the Missouri River Valley spins some vorticity and lift eastward.
This fog is the result of southwesterly winds shifting to west to northwest and pushing the humid air across the cooler, shallower waters in the Gulf. Temperatures along the island chain vary from near 70 degrees within the fog covered area to the mid 70s in the Lower Keys. A low pressure system currently in the Midwest will gradually move eastward over the few days, subsequently dragging a cold front across the eastern U.
1148 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 (Today through Wednesday) An upper level low pressure system to the north will continue to advance into the Midwest through Wednesday. A couple of those cooler drainage valleys could again fall to around the freezing mark.
A passing disturbance brought light snow to the majority of the Northern Rockies with mixed precipitation to the lower elevations of north central Idaho. The precipitation has increased the moisture in the lower levels of atmosphere which will allow for the development of low stratus and fog as a ridge of high pressure rebounds over the region tonight through Wednesday.
Some intermittent light freezing drizzle was leaking out of it earlier this morning, however that has either ended or decreased substantially in intensity so all winter weather highlights noting the concerns with the wintry mix of precipitation have been allowed to end this morning. /Pelatti FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence is moderate to high as to timing of next incoming weather system Wednesday and moderate as to how the stratus and associated fog and even the light freezing drizzle manifest today and tonight.
Temperatures across east central KS have warned into the mid 30s but after sunset, temperatures will fall back below freezing and additional snowfall will cause slick roadways. Early this afternoon the center of an upper low was located across western Marshall county along the NE border. A cold front extended southwest into central KS. Northwest of the cold front temperatures were in the upper 20s to lower 30s with northwest winds. This afternoon and Tonight: The upper low will slowly drift southeast into western MO. The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended through 12AM WED, since after sunset temperatures will drop below freezing and heavier snow showers this evening will cause snow covered and slick roadways. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 20s west to upper 20s east.
As vorticity lobes rotate around the the upper-level low, reinforcing cold fronts will advance southward across the Plains. As a result, below-average temperatures will continue on Wednesday with another cold front moving through the area tonight--veering the winds back to the northwest.
Patchy freezing fog possible in and near Elko County tonight.
Overhead we have a low pressure system centered over the Central Plains, leaving flow aloft over us southwesterly. At the surface, an area of high pressure nearly overhead will slide east across the area. As the aforementioned low makes its way east, it will send a dry cold front through our region. Cooler and drier air will fill in behind that with clouds clearing out tomorrow into tomorrow night. With light to moderate northerly air rushing in, wind chills are expected to drop into the lower 20s to 30s.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Message: - chance (25-30%) for temperatures falling below 32 degrees Wednesday night High pressure over the region will keep the clouds out of the lower levels of the atmosphere tonight. The main issue with radiational cooling will be if the high clouds will contribute to keeping the temperatures up overnight. Over the region the cooler temperatures will be in the northern portions of the forecast area with lows around 40 and a 25 percent chance that they will get below 35F. 5" in the forecast area which is below the 25 percentile for this time of the year, a dry trough passage. Relative humidity will be between 20-40% with the high end along the coastal bend. Wednesday night, with high pressure, dry conditions, clear skies, and light winds, we get closer to below freezing.
The massive upper level low over the central US will slowly drift east over the next 48 hours. With the low tracking from Kansas City through St Louis, the brunt of the precip will be affecting far western and southern IL through Wednesday night. Tonight we'll see our skies mostly clear, with increasing cloudiness and chances of precip in the west as the upper low moves east. As the low wobbles east- southeast Wednesday night we'll see the best chance of rain/snow from Jacksonville ESE to Olney and areas south of that line.
Stacked low pressure center across eastern Kansas leading to snow developing across the region. As the upper low migrates into western Missouri through the overnight, expect snow showers to develop driven by steep low level lapse rates. Additional snow is possible across central Missouri tomorrow as upper low lingers across the region. With the low clouds remaining across the region, expect temperatures to remain in the low and mid 30s.
230 PM MST Tue Dec 26 2023 Large upper low over the Great Plains continues to wrap moisture and isentropic lift into our SE zones. As that upper low slowly chugs east, any precipitation will come to an end in our southeast this evening. We also have a weak little wave moving down the east side of a ridge building into the Rockies from the west.
544 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) The broad 500mb low/trough across the central United States this afternoon will move slowly eastward tonight into Wednesday. Temperatures will fall to near or below freezing tonight across most of the CWA by Wednesday morning. A very weak cold front will move through the area by Wednesday afternoon.
251 PM MST Tue Dec 26 2023 - The cut-off low in the Central/Northern Plains continues to bring snow to eastern WY tonight into tomorrow. The upper-low/trough that brought accumulating snow to portions of the area is still spinning in the Central Plains. The cut-off low is producing heavy snow/blizzard conditions and Mixed precipitation in portions of the Central/Northern Plains. Snow will taper off tonight as the cut-off low begins progressing east. Tomorrow the cut-off low will be trekking eastward as a ridge comes in behind it. This ridge should hang around until this weekend, which will keep conditions dry and mild.
Large upper low is currently situated over far southeast Nebraska/Northeast KS. At the surface, low is positioned under the upper low over northeast KS. Light snow showers continue to pin-wheel around the upper low across most of Kansas and this will continue into the evening hours, especially across eastern KS. By 00z Thu the upper low is expected to be situated over central MO. By Fri morning, the upper low will be approaching the Tennessee Valley with north/northwest flow over the Plains. Areas of light rain/light snow will gradually exit eastern Kansas this evening, as an upper low continues to spin over Mid-Americas. Meanwhile, a narrow zone of low-level moistening and lift may support an area of very light freezing drizzle over portions of central and north-central Kansas before midnight.
729 PM EST Tue Dec 26 2023 Rain continues to be over the area through tonight, with activity diminishing early Wednesday morning as cold front pushes through the region. Temperatures will remain above normal into mid- week, but cooler conditions are expected late this week and over the upcoming weekend following the passage of a cold front. Widespread showers continue across the forecast area this evening ahead of a cold front located over central Georgia that will continue to push into the region early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will remain nearly steady in the lower 60s before falling into the 50s behind the front as it crosses the region. A closed upper level low pressure system will slowly meander eastward during the latter half of this week.
548 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) Upper low centered to our northeast continues to dominate our weather pattern in the short term. Wednesday, available mid-level moisture begins to reduce as the upper low departs to the east ever so slowly.
This is resulting in widespread clouds around the low over Kansas and much of Missouri with lesser coverage over Arkansas this evening.
538 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 High pressure and cloudy skies beginning to clear more as we approach dawn will allow for temperatures to radiate down to near the dew point values tonight, falling into the 30s F for most to around 40 F in the Pinebelt. Some typically cooler locations north of I-20 could near freezing by daybreak Wednesday. With temperatures near dew points and freezing, patchy frost will be possible particularly north of I-20 alongside patchy fog. Some chance for locally dense fog will be possible right around dawn for areas along the highway 84 corridor.
Moisture continues to pinwheel southward on the backside of the closed low currently stuck over eastern Kansas/northwest Missouri due to blocking over the eastern portion of the country. The area may still not be done with snow as the column of air remains fairly saturated from the moisture the low pulled in. Temperature should generally be in the low 30's, but could reach the mid 30's be the afternoon hours.
- Temperatures trending cooler but still warmer than average for much of the forecast period. Temperature observations across southern MN are in the lower 30s with light southerly winds whereas north of this occluded boundary still observing warmer air that is being wrapped in by a slow moving system over the central CONUS. The upper low to our south won't move much through the period, keeping plenty of cloud cover in place, along with light winds.
518 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 (Tonight) Cloud cover continues to diminish from west to east as drier air works its way into the region behind the cold front. Lows in the mid 30s will be common in most locations given the cooler post frontal air mass that will be working its way into the area.
355 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 - A messy system will keep chances for rain, snow and freezing rain in place for tonight into Wednesday with northern areas remaining in a Winter Weather Advisory due to light freezing rain.
430 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 High pressure and cloudy skies beginning to clear more as we approach dawn will allow for temperatures to radiate down to near the dew point values tonight, falling into the 30s F for most to around 40 F in the Pinebelt. Some typically cooler locations north of I-20 could near freezing by daybreak Wednesday. With temperatures near dew points and freezing, patchy frost will be possible particularly north of I-20 alongside patchy fog. Some chance for locally dense fog will be possible right around dawn for areas along the highway 84 corridor.
A high pressure pattern will continue to build along the California coast and gradually move inland. There is a potential for cooler and unsettled weather to return around the New Year. High pressure builds into the southwest from the Pacific, resulting in warming temperatures this afternoon mainly from the Mogollon Rim and southward. Mainly light northwest through northeast winds are expected today, although across the higher terrain (San Francisco Peaks, White Mountains, Bradshaw Mountains and the Chuska Mountains) locally gustier winds around 35-45 mph will be possible.
543 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) A low pressure system across the central part of the country will be departing to the east, with dry northwesterly flow in its wake resulting in clear conditions. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, mostly clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop near or below freezing for most of the forecast area.
555 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 - A messy system will keep chances for rain, snow and freezing rain in place for tonight into Wednesday with northern areas remaining in a Winter Weather Advisory due to light freezing rain.
337 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 - A low pressure system is forecast to bring a rain/snow mix to much of the region on Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. This low pressure system will interact with a co-located region of lift and cold, saturated air as it continues east overnight and bring a high chance (80% +) of rain and/or snow for much of the region on Wednesday. The soundings are indicating that near surface temperatures will be in the low to mid-30s, which favors more of a rain/snow mix reaching the surface. An associated vorticity maximum will move ahead of the upper low Wednesday morning. If temperatures trend warmer, there will be less snowfall accumulations (up to 0.
There remains a large dew point discontinuity across the mid state, with values in the low to mid 40s along the Cumberland Plateau and ~30F near the Tennessee River. Lows tonight will drop into the lower 30s with light winds across the area.
High pressure will return as the dominant weather feature by Wednesday, bringing stable and dry conditions throughout.
515 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 (Tonight) Near vertically stacked low pressure over northern KS will move slowly east toward the KC area tonight, as a strong lobe of vorticity wraps around its back and eventually southern side. Lacy (Wednesday through Tuesday) The low pressure system is expected to shift east/southeast into the Ozarks of MO on Wednesday.
A wave of low pressure will move northward over the area today with widespread, soaking rain. Temperatures remain well above normal with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s today and lows reaching the low to mid 40s tonight. A closed upper level low will slowly rotate and weaken as it advances from the Lower Ohio Valley to the eastern Carolinas by periods end.
836 PM MST Tue Dec 26 2023 Precipitation has been gradually diminishing over southeast Carter County as an upper low over the central US shifts east. STP Large upper low over the Great Plains continues to wrap moisture and isentropic lift into our SE zones. As that upper low slowly chugs east, any precipitation will come to an end in our southeast this evening. We also have a weak little wave moving down the east side of a ridge building into the Rockies from the west.
The low CIGS across the area are expected to give way to VFR as dry air mixes down to the surface this morning.
Deep 500 MB closed low will roll from Kansas City to St Louis and cross the Mississippi River over the next 24 hours.
High pressure aloft will then move in for the remainder of the next 24 hours; however, there will be lingering low clouds and patchy fog tonight through Wednesday morning over Southwestern Montana.
1017 PM MST Tue Dec 26 2023 The upper-low/trough that brought accumulating snow to portions of the area is still spinning in the Central Plains. The cut-off low is producing heavy snow/blizzard conditions and Mixed precipitation in portions of the Central/Northern Plains. Snow will taper off tonight as the cut-off low begins progressing east. Tomorrow the cut-off low will be trekking eastward as a ridge comes in behind it. This ridge should hang around until this weekend, which will keep conditions dry and mild.
The slow-moving, closed low currently centered directly over the KC Metro will be the driver of our weather during the next 48 hours. The lone exception is over far northwest Missouri, where temperatures were closer to freezing in the northern quadrant of the low thanks to NNE winds. The center of the low moves to near STL by midnight, and some lingering bouts of light precipitation is possible over eastern sections of the CWA through the evening hours.
Otherwise will start to see temps drop quicker as drier air wrapping around the low moves into southern WI resulting in clearing skies. Tonight, a bit of light snow may work into southern Wisconsin west and southwest of Madison as some vorticity from the churning upper low over the Missouri River Valley spins some vorticity and lift eastward.
(Wednesday through Tuesday) The low pressure system is expected to shift east/southeast into the Ozarks of MO on Wednesday.
(Today) The upper level low pressure center continuing to impact the region is centered near Kansas City this morning, having very slowly shifted eastward in the past 24 hours. A vort max on the west and south side of the low extends into southeast Kansas and far northeast Oklahoma and is spurring the region of light radar echoes seen in mainly southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas and adjacent portions of Oklahoma. The upper low will continue to pull away from the region, bringing an end to the potential for light precipitation.
337 AM EST Wed Dec 27 2023 A broad upper level low pressure system will slowly move through the region over the next several days, bringing repeated rounds of precipitation. Temperatures will begin to trend cooler through the remainder of the week. Cooler air does begin to settle in across the region today, but high temperatures are still expected to reach the middle 40s to around 50 degrees today. Broad upper low over will slowly traverse the Midwest region, acting as our primary weather driver. As the column continues to saturate, weak forcing from the upper low may spawn some isolated pockets of light rain overnight.
The snow showers over Natrona County will end tonight as the area of low pressure over the plains continues to move to the east. Ridging will then take hold over the northern Rockies and bring a fairly long stretch of settled weather, lasting at least into the start of 2024. The exception would in the snow covered basins and valleys, where inversions will keep things a bit cooler.
(Today and tonight) We continue to follow the meanderings of an occluded low across the lower Missouri Valley for its sensible impacts on our weather. The low will spin a bit eastward during the day, but not far enough away that we won't see another in a series of daily reinforcing cold shots driven by deeper boundary-layer mixing to our north.
Temps falling close to freezing may also lead to some patchy freezing fog in a few spots, which could make for some brief slick conditions on bridges/overpasses. Otherwise, high pressure over the region will weaken/translate eastward later today, allowing afternoon highs to climb into the mid/perhaps upper 50s, under mostly sunny skies.
The likely cause for this transition is the drop in dewpoints from the lower 70s to the upper 60s since late this afternoon, as a slightly drier surface airmass filters in on gentle NW flow. Otherwise, a quiet evening is in progress across the Keys, with no precipitation detected by radars, temperatures in the lower 70s, and winds on land from the west to northwest at 5 to 10 mph. A weak cold front that moved through the Keys earlier today is now located just east of Florida and the Straits, with the next stronger front currently over the Southern Plains. Sea fog should remain largely confined to the cooler Gulf and Bay waters to the north of the island chain, as dewpoints continue to slowly drop into the mid 60s.
High pressure keeps the area dry through the rest of the work week, with temperatures near or above normal. The pattern becomes more active this weekend as a series of systems move into the region, bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation chances.
1045 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) The broad 500mb low/trough across the central United States this afternoon will move slowly eastward tonight into Wednesday. Temperatures will fall to near or below freezing tonight across most of the CWA by Wednesday morning. A very weak cold front will move through the area by Wednesday afternoon.
/EC/ High pressure and cloudy skies beginning to clear more as we approach dawn will allow for temperatures to radiate down to near the dew point values tonight, falling into the 30s F for most to around 40 F in the Pinebelt. Some typically cooler locations north of I-20 could near freezing by daybreak Wednesday. With temperatures near dew points and freezing, patchy frost will be possible particularly north of I-20 alongside patchy fog. Some chance for locally dense fog will be possible right around dawn for areas along the highway 84 corridor.
1052 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 - A low pressure system is forecast to bring a rain/snow mix to much of the region on Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. This low pressure system will interact with a co-located region of lift and cold, saturated air as it continues east overnight and bring a high chance (80% +) of rain and/or snow for much of the region on Wednesday. The soundings are indicating that near surface temperatures will be in the low to mid-30s, which favors more of a rain/snow mix reaching the surface. An associated vorticity maximum will move ahead of the upper low Wednesday morning. If temperatures trend warmer, there will be less snowfall accumulations (up to 0.
954 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 - A messy system will keep chances for rain, snow and freezing rain in place for tonight into Wednesday with northern areas remaining in a Winter Weather Advisory due to light freezing rain.
- Temperatures trending cooler but still warmer than average for much of the forecast period. Temperature observations across southern MN are in the lower 30s with light southerly winds whereas north of this occluded boundary still observing warmer air that is being wrapped in by a slow moving system over the central CONUS. Upper low to our south will slowly shift east through the period, with forcing and boundary layer moisture in our area generally decreasing with time.