Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
312 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2023 A few weak showers can be seen on radar across the higher terrain. Latest CAMs keep showers and storms mainly west of the Divide but there is enough MLCAPE near 300-400 J/kg to support an isolated shower or two could occur for the northern foothills and Cheyenne Ridge this evening. Starting Wednesday afternoon, mid-level moisture increases as tropical moisture wraps on the upper level high. Some relief to the heat should occur as Wednesday's highs trend 3-8 degrees cooler than Tuesday's for the entire region. The strong upper level ridge over the Great Plains/Midwest will break down this week, bringing relief from the near-record heat 2.
Aloft, the large ridge over the Ozarks will continue to produce subsidence and stable conditions. Highs yesterday were under NBM, and will lean toward the lower end of NBM for today's highs.
The upper level pattern currently features a large omega blocking ridge that will continue to meander over the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi River Valley through rest of the week.
A strong upper level high remains in place across the central U. Expecting drier weather across the region today as our upper-level flow is becoming more southwesterly and PWAT values continue to drop from the high levels we saw a few days ago. Thursday looks very similar weather-wise although likely a touch warmer as 500mb heights continue to rise on the far western extent of a ridge of high pressure. Might see just enough moisture surge northward through the Great Basin tomorrow to support some low-end PoPs once again in the higher terrain regions, but again, most of us will remain dry.
350 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 High pressure builds in through Wednesday night, then slides to the east on Thursday.
Overnight lows need to generally dip into the low 70s to give buildings and their human inhabitants a chance to properly cool off. Temps are mostly 0-2 degrees cooler than where they were just 24 hours ago.
225 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring cooler, less humid and dry weather tonight through Wednesday.
349 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 High pressure will build into the area today, dry weather persisting through tonight.
131 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Higher pressure ridging into the region will bring a warming trend and lower shower and thunderstorm chances through the weekend.
1229 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 (This evening through Wednesday night) A strong ridge remains parked over the Midwest, creating conditions that up there makes our dry heat look wonderful by comparison. Going into tomorrow, the upper-level ridge will finally weaken a bit and maybe shift southwest slightly. Temperatures across the area will be a degree or two cooler.
(Today through Thursday) The H3 anticyclone center will be directly over SHV by this afternoon. The H85 high will start just ENE of this location and will ridge ENE from there.
332 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Extreme heat and humidity continuing today, warmer temperatures last through Thursday. Strong high pressure over the central CONUS continues to keep a stagnant airmass of warm moist air over much of Minnesota and Wisconsin. The high pressure center over the Central CONUS will begin to weaken and move south which should then open the door enough for "improvement" in the ongoing heatwave conditions. Heat and humidity will still be prevalent today as heat indices will range between 105-110, with the highest values focused in Southern MN.
150 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Upper ridge remains in control through Thursday with hot, breezy and dry conditions continuing.
124 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 A backdoor cold front will continue to push south of the area overnight, with cooler high pressure building in from the north through Thursday. By late week high pressure will shift off the SE coast and bring a return of hot and humid conditions with rain chances increasing by this weekend. Behind a cold front some midlevel clouds remain across the southwest portion of the forecast area. Cooler and drier air moving into the region will allow for lows to reach the mid to upper 60s inland and the low 70s along the coast.
WV imagery indicates a broad upper level high remaining locked in across the Central Plains. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. A relentless hot/dry pattern will continue throughout the period with little movement expected in regard to the large scale upper level high spread across the Central Plains into the high plains of western Kansas. Prevailing southerlies across western Kansas early this morning are expected to turn more southwesterly this afternoon in response to a slowly strengthening lee side trough in eastern Colorado, reinforcing the warm air mass across the area with H85 temperatures ranging from the upper 20s(C) in central Kansas to near 30F near the Colorado border.
Current satellite showing mostly clear skies with some CU development over the higher terrain inland. Weak ridge develops between systems into Wednesday as a deep upper low over the Pacific NW moves NE into Canada and additional troughing develops in the eastern Pacific.
Today's highs to range from the low to upper 90s across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains and from 100 to 104 across the Hill Country, parts of the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains.
With dewpoints in the lower-70s, this translates to heat index values between 102-108F for nearly the entire CWA (besides north Georgia). The main perk of this intrusion of "cooler" (very relative, given highs still forecast to reach into the lower-90s for portions of northeast and east central GA), drier air will be a depression in apparent temperatures (and reduction in heat risk) for areas east of Atlanta.
1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Through the period, strong high pressure centered over MO will drop south into AR then slide westward into northeast TX/south central OK. Highs over the higher terrain will be in the mid to upper 90s with upper 90s to around 103 for the remainder of the forecast area.
Hot and dry conditions are expected once again on Wednesday as the persistent ridge of high-pressure over the center of the country gradually shifts southwest toward portions of the Southern Plains. Slight weakening of this upper ridge (~600 dam to ~596 dam) will allow for temperatures to be a few degrees cooler Wednesday afternoon.
306 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through most of Wednesday, which will bring mostly sunny skies.
Updated Aviation Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain a threat into this evening, especially across the higher terrain of northern and southeastern Arizona. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday across much of Arizona as a low pressure system moves through Mexico and into Arizona.
Today the region remains under southwest flow that turns more westerly throughout the day as a Pacific trough progresses eastward. Thursday a ridge builds over the region, suppressing any further showers or thunderstorms.
When atmospheric moisture is this high, it takes a tremendous amount of energy to raise the ambient temperature 1 degree. If there is a small pocket of cooler temperatures then convection 'may' occur.
1114 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring cooler, less humid and dry weather tonight through Wednesday.
138 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Higher pressure ridging into the region will bring a warming trend and lower shower and thunderstorm chances through the weekend.
Short Term Forecast Discussion: The mid-level, continental high pressure system continues to dominate the large scale weather pattern over most of the CONUS. However, an amplifying trough over the western Atlantic will begin to force the dominant high slightly further west and place more northerly to northeasterly flow over the forecast area today. High pressure near the surface is also spilling over the eastern side of the Appalachians and pushing it's way into the forecast area as a weak but dry wedge front. Overnight, slight drier and cooler air will begin to push into the forecast area from the east which will allow overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, which will feel like a welcome relief.
158 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances will return this afternoon with a crossing warm front.
The remnants will continue to move northwest today into Arizona as it travels around the western periphery of the upper ridge. Meanwhile, the upper ridge over Missouri will shift southwestward towards Oklahoma. Despite the ridge pushing closer to the forecast area, the heights will actually fall slightly today with very similar temperatures as yesterday as highs struggle to reach the 100s.
1026 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Upper ridge remains in control through Thursday with hot, breezy and dry conditions continuing.
424 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through most of Wednesday, which will bring mostly sunny skies.
142 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 A mainly dry cold front moves through the region early this morning.
(Today through Thursday) The anomalous ridge over the Mid-South and Plains states will begin to show subtle signs of weakening as it begins to retreat westward. Even with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will range from 105 to 112 degrees. Rain chances remain suppressed by the proximity of the ridge and the lack of meaningful moisture content, so skies will be mostly sunny with passing high clouds and fair weather cu.
Today's forecast highs are expected to be a degree or two warmer than yesterday's thanks to the area of high pressure centered over southern Missouri. The combination of the cloud cover moving in from the east and the center of the high pressure slowly meandering further west suggests Thursday's temperatures should be similar to today's. if not a degree or two cooler.
Thursday, we start to see the first signs of the upper-level ridge over us start to break down.
This very strong ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate our weather pattern with hot temperatures and mostly dry conditions. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop this evening as a backdoor cold front approaches from the northeast. This will bring our overnight low temperatures down to the low 70s along the I-75 corridor, where PoPs will be around 30 percent this evening.
912 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Southwest flow between a trough over the eastern Pacific and ridge to the east will bring dry, warm weather Wednesday.
334 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 High pressure will build into the area today, dry weather persisting through tonight.
(Today and tonight) The 00Z 500mb analysis marks the center of the upper ridge near the Iowa/Missouri border, with 600 dm still observed. Today, the high will begin to slowly break down and shift slowly southward towards Arkansas.
120 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Flow aloft turns westerly today as upper ridge shifts southward enough to allow heights aloft to drop. This will allow for cooler temperatures today and Thursday, though still a bit above normal for this time of year. Westerly flow cuts off Monsoonal feed aloft and also mixes down lee of the divide drying out the lower levels of the atmosphere, dropping PWATs drop back under an inch and eventually under 0. Disturbance crossing longitudinally across southern Canada will drive a dry cold front through tonight turning winds northerly and eventually northeasterly Thursday.
1218 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 (Rest of tonight) High pressure is evident over the eastern US as the region is mostly void of clouds and large scale anticyclonic rotation can be seen on nighttime RGB satellite imagery. This will keep dry but warm conditions overnight with temperatures only falling into the low to mid 70s by the early morning hours.
352 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances will return this afternoon with a crossing warm front.
Synopsis: Water vapor imagery tonight shows enhanced deep moisture streaming from the western Gulf of Mexico northward through the Rockies and High Plains along the western periphery of upper ridging. Despite steadily lowering midlevel heights through the afternoon, the low-level thermal ridge is forecast to remain firm across much of western and central SD, maintaining dangerous to excessive heat across our eastern zones.
Latest water vapor imagery shows impressive upper low centered over NW Washington.
(Today) The nearly 600 decameter 500 mb ridge will continue to dominate the central CONUS as well as the Ohio Valley and Southeastern states today. In addition, it will be humid, with dew points potentially reaching the lower to mid 70s once again according to some model guidance.
(Today through Thursday Night ) Not much change in the short term period as the excessive heat and The center of the upper ridge is located across MO early this Wed morning.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through this morning but will shift westward through the day as Harold moves westward and a ridge builds into the area dropping moisture and PWAT values below normal (~ 1.
Early morning surface analysis had a ridge from the northeast across northern Mississippi. This ridge axis will remain north of our CWA but become east/west oriented through tonight. This ridging surface and aloft will help maintain near full insolation again today of our warm airmass sending afternoon highs back above 100F over most of our CWA. Current temperatures were already running several degrees warmer than this time last night and we will have the potential for setting a few record warm low temperatures for the date. /22/ Current global guidance continue to show a mid/upper ridge that is expected to remain anchored over the central CONUS for the next couple of days. This ridge continues to show impressive 500mb and 700mb heights in the upper echelon of climatology for this time of month.
A strong ridge remains over the central US, allowing for Tropical Depression Harold to cut under the ridge and moves into the southwest. 90 inches over the high terrain to 1. Storms look to develop initially over the higher terrain, then increasing in coverage over much of northern and central Arizona once the better dynamics move in during the evening and early overnight hours.
(12Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with rain chances remaining on the low side.
554 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 High pressure builds in through Wednesday night, then slides to the east on Thursday.
Cooler than normal temperatures today then warming to above normal this weekend.
The warm and humid air mass that has made itself at home the past few days will finally get the proverbial boot today as an upper level trough swings through the area. As this trough approaches the area from the west, winds will be on the increase across the area with wind gusts reaching 20 mph for much of the area by early afternoon. In addition to the winds, a few isolated rain showers will be possible this afternoon as the trough approaches, but any showers that do form will be generally weak and brief. With high pressure at the surface and a much drier air mass in place, we should see mostly clear skies on Thursday.
High pressure over the eastern United States and western Atlantic will result in moderate breezes this afternoon. As an upper- level trough stretches into the western Atlantic, breezes will gradually slacken over the following day or two.
547 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 (Today through Thursday Night ) Not much change in the short term period as the excessive heat and The center of the upper ridge is located across MO early this Wed morning.
Dewpoints in the advisory area should be in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures are also expected to remain warmer than the previous night as a result of the persistent upper level clouds limiting some radiational cooling overnight.
The temperature change of the air mass is still slight, but a little cooler start and a little more cloud should result in high temperatures a couple degrees cooler today.
Current observations of temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dew points in the mid 70s were used to update the forecast to better reflect the diurnal change in both temperature and dewpoint. However, the high temp and max apparent temperature remain unchanged for this afternoon. High temperatures today are still expected to make it into the high 90s.
* A cold front will begin moving into the area on Thursday and will bring a chance of showers and storms beginning Thursday night for portions of the area. * This front will result in much cooler temperatures with highs mostly in the 80s over the weekend. A big upper level ridge is centered over Missouri and extends over Kansas and Nebraska. The upper ridge will be more centered over Oklahoma on Thursday with upper level disturbances moving over southern Canada, North Dakota, and the Upper Midwest. A cold front associated with these disturbances will move southward towards the forecast area on Thursday.
955 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 High pressure builds in through Wednesday night, then slides to the east on Thursday.
714 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 (Today and tonight) The 00Z 500mb analysis marks the center of the upper ridge near the Iowa/Missouri border, with 600 dm still observed. Today, the high will begin to slowly break down and shift slowly southward towards Arkansas.
547 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through most of Wednesday, which will bring mostly sunny skies.
646 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 A large area of high pressure will allow hot and dry conditions to remain across the Mid-South through the end of the work week.
Harry just entering the lower Trans Pecos at 07Z. Winds could briefly reach advisory criteria at some of the higher elevations down south, and may gust to near 60 mph later today in the Texas Guadalupes/Delawares.
722 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with rain chances remaining on the low side. The upper level pattern currently features a large omega blocking ridge that will continue to meander over the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi River Valley through rest of the week.
838 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances will return this afternoon with a crossing warm front.
556 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 (Today) The nearly 600 decameter 500 mb ridge will continue to dominate the central CONUS as well as the Ohio Valley and Southeastern states today. In addition, it will be humid, with dew points potentially reaching the lower to mid 70s once again according to some model guidance.
610 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 (Today through Thursday night) 08z WV satellite shows a large upper high continuing to meander over Missouri with southeasterly flow aloft over the Panhandles as a result. Unfortunately, remnants of TS Harold are rotating around the aforementioned upper high well to our southwest with the Panhandles only receiving plentiful cirrus from this system. Today, core of the upper high begins to slowly migrate westward, likely displacing the scant mid-level moisture that allowed tiny bits of convection to develop the past two days to our west. Thursday, upper ridge continues to shift westward, keeping temperatures in the 90s and lower 100s in the Panhandles.
653 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 High pressure will build into the area today, dry weather persisting through tonight.
554 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 (Today through Thursday) The anomalous ridge over the Mid-South and Plains states will begin to show subtle signs of weakening as it begins to retreat westward. Even with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will range from 105 to 112 degrees. Rain chances remain suppressed by the proximity of the ridge and the lack of meaningful moisture content, so skies will be mostly sunny with passing high clouds and fair weather cu.
642 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Extreme heat and humidity continuing today, warmer temperatures last through Thursday. Strong high pressure over the central CONUS continues to keep a stagnant airmass of warm moist air over much of Minnesota and Wisconsin. The high pressure center over the Central CONUS will begin to weaken and move south which should then open the door enough for "improvement" in the ongoing heatwave conditions. Heat and humidity will still be prevalent today as heat indices will range between 105-110, with the highest values focused in Southern MN.
957 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through most of today, leading to partly to mostly sunny skies.
642 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 High pressure will be in control of our weather through most of Wednesday, which will bring mostly sunny skies.
(Today through Thursday night) 08z WV satellite shows a large upper high continuing to meander over Missouri with southeasterly flow aloft over the Panhandles as a result. Unfortunately, remnants of TS Harold are rotating around the aforementioned upper high well to our southwest with the Panhandles only receiving plentiful cirrus from this system. Today, core of the upper high begins to slowly migrate westward, likely displacing the scant mid-level moisture that allowed tiny bits of convection to develop the past two days to our west. Thursday, upper ridge continues to shift westward, keeping temperatures in the 90s and lower 100s in the Panhandles.
1235 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 (Today through Thursday Night ) Not much change in the short term period as the excessive heat and The center of the upper ridge is located across MO early this Wed morning.
GNC A large area of high pressure will allow hot and dry conditions to remain across the Mid-South through the end of the work week.
Currently, hot and dry conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the week due to an upper level ridge centered above the Central Plains.
With the influx of moisture and cloud cover, temperatures are cooler this morning than yesterday; particularly west and southwest of Tucson. High temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday with a forecasted high of 94F in Tucson, 88F in Nogales, 86F in Safford and 80F in Douglas.
We will keep POPs on the low side or now and into Thursday. We do have a front slipping south through the afternoon and if convection does get going, that would limit the high heat index potential.
259 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Extreme heat and humidity begin to shift off to the south after today, but warmer temperatures last through Thursday. The driver of the heat wave is a large ridge of high pressure aloft that has been centered over the central CONUS. This ridge finally begins to shift off to southwest over the next few days and allow for a pattern change over the Upper Midwest.
(This evening through Thursday night) TS Harold skirted around the southern periphery of the stout upper level high pressure centered over MO/KS/OK/AR, with remnants now moving into the far southern parts of AZ and NM.
(Thursday through Wednesday) The heat and humidity will persist through the rest of this work week and into the early part of the weekend areawide, with upper level high pressure slowly shifting westward through this time period.
314 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 The anomalously strong mid level ridge over the Plains should start to go through some weakening for the remainder of the week. Despite that weakening, the H7 thermal ridge does remain pretty stout through Thursday, thus likely capping off the region for another couple forecast periods. At the sfc, low pressure over eastern SD will likely skirt to the east, with its attendant front sliding south into NE/IA.
The dew-point temperature here at MOB has dropped to 65 degrees, and dew-points are now no higher than the lower 70s anywhere across our area. Good news is Thursday still looks to technically be "cooler" as in we might only break daily record highs vs all time record highs.
1202 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 (The rest of today ) 12Z RAOBS a little cooler than than those of 24 hours ago. Still, upper high still remains quite strong while the center has shifted a little east and south.