Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low-level thicknesses also increase a bit more compared to yesterday so expect warmer temps. Guidance typically has a cold bias in these types of patterns and flows, so have gone on the higher end of model output for afternoon highs (low/mid 60s). In addition to setting the stage for a colorful sunset this evening, the clouds will also keep overnight lows a tad warmer compared to previous nights.
In far eastern MT where cloud cover will linger, temperatures will remain cooler in the 40s. On Saturday, weak upper ridging will work into the area creating a most dry day with temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s.
1121 PM MDT Thu Nov 2 2023 A collapsing ridge begins to flatten out the upper level flow over the region this afternoon and early this evening. Although, some gusty winds will likely mix down onto the higher terrain features of northwest Colorado Friday afternoon. The previously mentioned transitory ridge axis will be moving through the CWA on Saturday.
So in general, we should continue with lots of sun or stars in the short term as the upper trough axis moves overhead this morning and a light NW flow sets up for the weekend.
Currently at the surface, strong high pressure is ridging from the Mid-Atlantic states through the southeastern US, with a tight pressure gradient across Florida continuing to support breezy northeast winds today.
104 AM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 (This evening through Friday) The warming trend continues Friday as the lee trough along the Texas and New Mexico state line strengthens, and south to southwest winds become gusty at times.
A weak upper level trof will traverse the region through the day Friday, but with an extremely dry column overhead (0. H5 heights build into the weekend with low/mid level ridging.
The low will advance southeastward today and drag the cold front through the area. However, model soundings show quite a bit of dry air in the low levels, so not expecting much (if anything) to hit the ground. Even if we don't get any precip, we should see lingering cloud cover through the day which should keep at least parts of the area cooler than yesterday. For what they're worth this far out, CAMs suggest the highest potential will be across southeast NE.
Low relative humidity this afternoon and warmer temperatures today. Temperatures are warmer than last night, in the upper 20's to lower 30's. The dry weather will continue today as high pressure remains anchored across the Appalachians and Mid- Atlantic. Temperatures will be warmer today now that CAA has diminished, and light southerly flow prevails. Relative humidity will be low again this afternoon as dewpoints fall into the low to mid 20's supporting minimum relative humidity in the 20's across the entire area. However, with high pressure remaining close by winds will be light. Tonight, lows will dip into the 30's across most locations which will be a bit warmer than yesterday.
Highs this afternoon are forecast to rise into the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows tonight in the low 40s to mid 50s.
A weak disturbance and cold front will bring more clouds than sun over the weekend along with a few showers mainly for areas north and west of the Capital District. Temps vary across the forecast area with variable cloudiness, as high pressure drifts off the coast. An upper-level trough and weak cold front will begin to approach the region Friday night. The main forcing with the upper trough will pass to the north of the region. Moisture with the cold front will be limited, but some enhanced moisture as it passes over the warmer waters of the Great Lakes could produce some rain showers for areas north and west of the Capital Region Friday night into Saturday morning.
As the low level flow continues to gradually strengthen out of the east today, slightly better moisture quality should be realized. With the low level "somewhat" return flow setting up, today will be a few degrees warmer and a gradual warming trend is anticipated to continue into the upcoming weekend with overnight low (although cool) will increase from the last few nights and daytime highs will warm into the 70s today and to near 80 on Saturday, especially across the western tier with the coolest around the MS Gulf Coast where slightly lower heights and thicknesses will reside.
342 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 High pressure will keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend, though a frontal boundary will bring a couple rounds of scattered showers to Central New York this weekend.
These warmer readings will continue into Friday night with warmer overnight lows as temperatures only fall into the 40s.
and Saturday Key Messages: -Weak cold front brings some isolated light precipitation this morning. -Dry conditions follow along with near normal temperatures Details: Upstream satellite and radar show scattered weak returns and upper cloud cover accompanying a weak cold front that will work its way across the region this morning. The additional clearing and weak cold air advection will reduce the overnight low temperatures when compared to last night, ranging from the lower 20s near the Upper Peninsula border to the lower 30s near the Fox Valley. High temperatures will be a few degrees below normal, ranging from the lower to middle 40s.
Ridging across the western CONUS keeps general NW upper level flow across the central Plains keeping skies pretty quiet. This wave comes in contact with a subtle warm frontal boundary trying to piece itself together along the I-70 corridor.
For now, will maintain highs ranging in the lower and mid 70s this afternoon.
320 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 High pressure will keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend, though a frontal boundary will bring a couple rounds of scattered showers to Central New York this weekend.
335 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 High pressure will remain in control of the region through the weekend. A weak cold front may move into the region by mid-week. High pressure is currently centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast. Clear skies and very light to calm winds have allowed for temperatures to drop below freezing in many locations. Temperatures have dropped into the low to mid 30s even along the immediate coast. The high pressure is forecast to slowly weaken and shift off the mid- Atlantic coast on today. Warmer, but still a little below avg, with high temperatures near 60s to the mid 60s. High pressure remains over the region through the weekend, but will continue to weaken.
252 AM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 Gusty southwesterly winds and mostly sunny skies continue to aid in boosting temperatures into the lower to middle 50s early this afternoon. Wind speeds will then abate from northwest to southeast later Friday afternoon and evening with the approach of a cold frontal boundary. Later in the afternoon and evening, there is a non-zero chance (5 to 10%) for a few late day light showers or sprinkles across parts of northern IL as the cold frontal boundary begins to move into far northern IL.
Recent GOES-16 WV and RAP 500-mb analysis showed high pressure centered over southern California with a broad ridge extending northeast into the Rockies and northern Plains. Further northeast of this feature, a deep trough of low pressure was noted over the Hudson Bay, extending south across the eastern third of the CONUS. At the surface, low pressure was situated across south central Nebraska with an associated weak cold front draped northwest into western South Dakota and central Montana to another area of low pressure. The aforementioned stationary front will quickly transition to a cold front this afternoon, advancing southward across the forecast area through the evening. Forecast soundings continue to support an all liquid precipitation type, with the lowest kilometers of the column to remain above freezing.
1203 AM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 (This evening through Friday Night) High pressure has moved eastward into the Gulf of Mexico, allowing onshore flow to return this afternoon. Lows tonight will be slightly warmer than the last couple of nights, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Lows on Friday night will be slightly warmer than tonight, with temperatures in the upper 40s to near 60.
Forecast: Jet stream has moved well north of the CWA with troughing located over eastern Canada and the NE CONUS. Temperatures look to be close to freezing in some areas where the frost/freeze program is still active, but not confident enough in seeing another freeze to issue any products at this time.
Forcing associated with a weakening cold front will bring scattered light rain showers mainly north to northwest of KGRR later this morning through the afternoon as suggested by latest sref pops. Fair wx will return after fropa and through the day Saturday as a high pressure builds in from the northwest.
(Today through Saturday) Upper level troughing moves off to the east with upper level ridging and dry zonal flow aloft taking hold through Saturday.
Temperatures the next few days will be on the mild side with mid 50s to lower 60s likely in the lower Snake and into the Magic Valley. Upper 40s to mid 50s across the higher terrain and into the upper Snake Plain.
Ironically, temperatures behind the front will be slightly warmer given northwesterly downslope winds.
343 AM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Trending warmer over the next few days, with highs climbing into the 50s by the end of the weekend.
Broad cyclonic flow remains in place over the midwest as a mid-level trough axis extends north towards the Hudson Bay region. Southerly winds ahead of the trough axis will once again be gusty before veering towards the northwest with the passage. By Saturday, expect low to mid 60 degree high temperatures as northwesterly flow advects in cooler 850 temperatures.
1233 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 Dry high pressure continues over our region through the weekend and into the next work week. A weak cold front is forecast to cross our region by mid week. Strong sfc hipres will remain dominant thru Fri as it ridges in from the northeast. Highs on Fri will be held a little below normal, but modify warmer than today due to high insolation. Maxes will range from the lower/mid 60s non/mtns to arnd 60 degrees over the mtn valleys.
(Through Friday) Seasonably cool and quiet conditions are expected to persist through the day tomorrow, with high temperatures generally remaining near average (in the 70s) and low temperatures remaining below average (from the low 40s in Alabama and Georgia to the low 50s in the southeast Big Bend). However, moisture will be significantly lacking through all levels of the atmosphere, and high pressure will keep a lid on everything.
123 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 High pressure will remain over the area into the weekend with another very cold night expected tonight. High pressure over the area will keep winds light to calm and skies abundantly clear overnight, resulting in ideal radiational cooling. General troughing will give way to zonal flow across the eastern CONUS as the deep trough quickly pulls away over the Atlantic. The increase in upper level heights as the trough exits stage right will helps with this, too. GEFS/EPS Ensemble forecasts for PNA and NAO suggest that we will likely see persistent troughing redevelop over the west CONUS over the next 3-5 days, with likely transient flow across the eastern CONUS expected.
123 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 High pressure will keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend, although a weak front nearby may bring a few showers to Central NY at times.
Another chilly night already underway - final night near or below freezing at least for the 7 days. An afternoon that's 10 degrees warmer than today seemed a stretch for what will be just insolation from weak sun angles (as opposed to actual advection). This pushes a coastal trough over the offshore waters. The trough appears to be well offshore enough to not bring showers to the mainland. Highs in the lower 70s. Temperature gradient sets up again Saturday night, albeit warmer this time. lows in the lower 40s inland, lower 50s at the coast.
The high and mid clouds will get pushed south as drier air advances southward behind short wave.
Eastern Kentucky lies within broad cyclonic flow south of a longwave trough centered over the Hudson Bay region of Canada, which is helping to keep the jet stream north of the commonwealth currently. At the sfc, a ridge of high pressure was centered over the Mid- Atlantic region but with its axis extending southwest through the Southeast US into southern Texas.
Temperatures will also be warmer today with highs in the 70s across the area.
These clouds and an increase in southerly surface winds are leading to rising temperatures mainly into the 40s in many areas at 2 AM, which is near 10 to 15 degrees warmer from 24 hours ago. For a time this mixing will also be tapping a low level thermal ridge pre-frontal, allowing for temps to climb well into the 50s areawide, with some areas around 60 or in the lower 60s mainly south of I-80.
/NEW/ /Friday and Saturday/ High pressure has built over the SE CONUS, allowing warm and moist return flow to establish locally. Temperatures are expected to top out in the low 70s this afternoon, or 7-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. It will be slightly warmer Saturday with highs in the mid-upper 70s.
457 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the Southeast states to the Mid Atlantic Coast through Saturday.
(Today) High pressure remains layered across the mid/southern Atlantic states this early Fri morning, as a weak upper trough pattern traverses eastward thru the western/central Gulf Coastal areas. Low-level flow is beginning to veer more to the SE and this should translate into slightly warmer afternoon temps, as highs climb more into the mid 60s for most spots.
Cold front settles into the CWA from the north Friday. Continued breezy and slightly warmer Saturday.
353 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 High pressure just offshore will slowly work east across the western Atlantic through Saturday. A weak cold front moves into the Northeast on Saturday, eventually stalling to the north and dissipating.
Snow is also expected at other higher elevation locations across NW WY, with Togwotee and Sylvan passes seeing 4 to 6 inches, and the lower elevations of Yellowstone possibly picking up 2-3 inches. As the trough axis passes through the area between 12am and 6am, a few showers are possible east of the divide early Friday morning. Cooler mid-level air settles in on Friday, but surface temperatures should remain near normal due to decent boundary layer mixing in the post-trough environment, and the fact that this this wave is from the PacNW and not southern Canada. Weak ridging/high pressure then develops over the Intermountain West Friday into Saturday morning to bring partly cloudy skies and seasonal temperatures to the area into Saturday afternoon.
A mix of sun and clouds today with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight with lows ranging from the upper 50s across the northern ranchlands, the low 60s across the Rio Grande Valley and the Rio Grande Plains, and the lower 70s at the beaches. Saturday will be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 80s, except for the upper 70s at the beaches.
1232 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 High pressure will keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend, although a weak front nearby may bring a few showers to Central NY at times.
218 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough across the east half of the U. and a ridge across the western half. This will bring a cold front through the area and could see some pops across the east half of the cwa today, but nothing more than chance across the east as airmass is pretty dry overall.
(Today) Upper level trough continues to exit the area today, placing the region under WNW flow aloft. Resulting temps this afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
Southerly surface flow in response to lee troughing will maintain above-normal temperatures through the short term, with today and tomorrow in the mid 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will be warmer the further west you go where the thermal ridge will set up, and compressional warming from downsloping westerly winds should boost temperatures to the 80s across the west. We remain dry with mostly clear skies moving into the weekend, so despite the abnormally warm temperatures for November, it will be a fairly nice weekend to get outdoors! Low temperatures should be warmer than previous nights by Saturday morning, but will remain chilly in the 40s and low 50s under light winds and clear skies.
1134 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2023 High pressure will slowly translate to the Mid Atlantic coast through Friday bringing dry and milder conditions. Meanwhile, a dying cold front will stall out just north of the state this weekend.
However, due to the northerly flow, temperatures will be a bit cooler than days prior by about 5 degrees.
This combined with a continuing downslope component to the low level flow and the dry airmass will result in daytime highs in the middle to upper 70s today, with the warmest values near the TX/NM state line where diurnal mixing will be most robust.
1143 PM MDT Thu Nov 2 2023 High pressure and dry westerly flow across the Borderland will keep the region dry and allow for warmer temperatures each day through the weekend. With high pressure over the area we have weak pressure gradients and thus light winds. This pattern will persist through the weekend, with two minor upper ridges passing over our region. We should continue with slight warming, resulting in temperatures about 5-8 degrees warmer than normal.
Lower valley rain and snow in the higher elevations is ongoing as seen on radar that will continue throughout the short term on Friday.
After another chilly night with lows in the lower 20s to mid 30s, 9 AM temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 40s under sunny skies. A main concern today will be low relative humidity values reduced into the low/mid 20s percent range over much of the area this afternoon.
This will encourage development of a surface trof in the vicinity along with a continuation of dry weather and generally above normal temperatures over the next couple days.
The Winter Weather Advisory for Northern Blaine and Hill Counties was cancelled earlier, shortly after 7AM MDT, as the threat for widespread freezing rain had largely ended there. Snow levels will be quite high (above 8000 ft) with this system, limiting snow the highest peaks.
511 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the Southeast states to the Mid Atlantic Coast through Saturday.
302 AM MDT Fri Nov 3 2023 Morning Discussion: Today: The overrunning of warm air aloft and near freezing surface temperatures will continue through the late morning today.
Snow levels will be quite high (above 8000 ft) with this system, limiting snow the highest peaks.
521 AM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 (Today) Upper level trough continues to exit the area today, placing the region under WNW flow aloft. Resulting temps this afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
High pressure continues to bring above average temperatures, light winds, and dry conditions.
605 AM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 (Today) High pressure remains layered across the mid/southern Atlantic states this early Fri morning, as a weak upper trough pattern traverses eastward thru the western/central Gulf Coastal areas. Low-level flow is beginning to veer more to the SE and this should translate into slightly warmer afternoon temps, as highs climb more into the mid 60s for most spots.
649 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 High pressure will remain in control of the region through the weekend. A weak cold front may move into the region by mid-week. High pressure is currently centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast. Clear skies and very light to calm winds have allowed for temperatures to drop below freezing in many locations. Temperatures have dropped into the low to mid 30s even along the immediate coast. The high pressure is forecast to slowly weaken and shift off the mid- Atlantic coast on today. Warmer, but still a little below avg, with high temperatures near 60s to the mid 60s. High pressure remains over the region through the weekend, but will continue to weaken.
An upper level trough will move across the Mississippi Valley and adjacent Gulf Coast states today into tonight, but with precipitable values averaging 0. Highs today will range in the lower to mid 70s over most locations today, while lows tonight also trend slightly warmer in the lower to mid 40s over interior areas and in the upper 40s to mid 50s along the coast. The upper level trough axis will move east of our region on Saturday with dry northwesterly to zonal flow aloft returning over forecast area behind this departing feature.
Early this morning, temperatures are much warmer than what we've seen the last couple of mornings as dewpoints continue to rise. Otherwise, expect seasonal temperatures this afternoon with highs in the lower 70s.
A ridge of high pressure will be moving over the Northern Rockies for the next 24 hours causing the shower activity to decrease throughout the day.
Water vapor imagery highlights a short wave trough sliding east along the northern Gulf Coast. A strong high pressure system centered over the Mid- Atlantic states will support strong northeast breezes today and tonight.
927 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the Southeast states to the Mid Atlantic Coast through Saturday.
A passing trough to the north will send a weak cold front through the southeast plains which will backdoor into the I-25 corridor as winds shift from the east in the afternoon. Lee troughing tonight in advance of increasing northwest flow aloft will result in some mild overnight lows along the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains.
628 AM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 (Today through Saturday) Upper level troughing moves off to the east with upper level ridging and dry zonal flow aloft taking hold through Saturday.
415 AM MDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A low amplitude mid-level trough will slide southeastward across the northern Rockies just clipping the northernmost mountains of Colorado today. A transitory ridge approaches from the west tonight and will pass over the forecast area on Saturday. Consequently, expect dry and mild conditions with decreased clouds until high clouds move over the north late in the day as the next short wave trough moves over the Northwest and northern Great Basin.
556 AM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Trending warmer over the next few days, with highs climbing into the 50s by the end of the weekend.
515 AM MDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A low amplitude mid-level trough will slide southeastward across the northern Rockies just clipping the northernmost mountains of Colorado today. A transitory ridge approaches from the west tonight and will pass over the forecast area on Saturday. Consequently, expect dry and mild conditions with decreased clouds until high clouds move over the north late in the day as the next short wave trough moves over the Northwest and northern Great Basin.
Currently, west/northwest flow aloft over the region with a flattening ridge to our west and continued broad troughiness to our east.
High pressure will bring a warming trend through Saturday.
810 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 Currently at the surface, strong high pressure is ridging from the Mid-Atlantic states through the southeastern US, with a tight pressure gradient across Florida continuing to support breezy northeast winds today.
1204 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Trending warmer over the next few days, with highs climbing into the 50s by the end of the weekend.
There is quite a bit of mid/upper level moisture in the form of trapped waves but rather moisture starved in the low levels. Cross sections show some mountain top level moisture so a few light snow showers may be to get squeezed out over the higher elevations tonight and early Saturday morning in the orographic w/nw flow. During the day on Saturday, high pressure ridge aloft will build into Western Colorado during the day with a bit weaker flow aloft and a drier airmass. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Saturday compared to today with a slight bump up in 700 mb temperatures.