Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
536 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over eastern IA, upper ridge axis along/east of the spine of the Rockies, and upper low just offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, ridge is over the eastern Dakotas with deepening lee trof across MT/WY. Upper ridge axis will slowly migrate east the next couple of days, with warming temps and increasing southeast winds.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with light southeasterly winds and low temperatures dipping into the low to mid 60s.
Scattered showers still expected to continue overnight though on the periphery of the upper low near the Quad Cities, with highest pops favoring the southern and western portions of the area. There could be a lull Wednesday morning as the positive vorticity advection drops off briefly as the upper level low slowly tracks east. Clouds and cooler temps and showers linger for the southern half of the area Wednesday night as the upper level low slowly tracks toward the eastern Great Lakes.
521 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Dry and sunny conditions are ongoing again today as a ridge continues to traverse east across the area.
616 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Key Messages * Upper low continues to bring in low clouds and influence temperatures * Fog will redevelop tonight into Wednesday morning An upper low is still spinning over Iowa this afternoon and drawing low clouds into South Dakota. Southeast sfc flow and a building upper ridge will help highs pop into the 70s to near 80 degrees from the James Valley west on Wednesday.
The gradual drying trend does continue at mid afternoon however with decreasing areas of drizzle but still plenty of low clouds and shrouded ridgetops. The improving trend will be short lived however a conditions will deteriorate into Thu and Thu night as upper trough from Ohio approaches and CAD pattern east of the Appalachians brings expansive cloud cover and low rain chances in the presence of deepening moist easterly/upslope flow once again from the Atlantic. By late week the focus shifts to an upstream trough over the Grt Lks.
804 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 A few rain showers remain possible this evening and again Wednesday as troughing aloft establishes to our west. A return to cooler conditions will occur by mid-A week as high pressure builds southward east of the Appalachians, with this continuing into the weekend. With cloud cover across the region, temperatures will be slow to drop and expect overnight mins mainly in the lower to middle 60s.
742 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 A prolonged period of dry weather will continue through this week as high pressure remains entrenched across eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. High pressure will continue to build southward into New England tonight, resulting in clearing skies and light winds. The result will be another chilly night, especially in the Adirondacks where lows in the lower to mid 30s and areas of frost are expected. The high will remain in place Wednesday and Wednesday night, keeping skies mostly clear and the weather dry. The dry weather will continue through this period as the weather will be dominated by high pressure centered over Quebec.
Moisture continues to pinwheel back northwest around slow moving upper level low pressure back in eastern Iowa. The cutoff upper level low evident on water vapor imagery over eastern Iowa as of early afternoon will continue to drift southeast into northern Illinois through tonight. Remnant tropical moisture will continue to rotate around the upper level low leading to a few showers and areas of drizzle across the higher terrain through this evening. Pattern Synopsis: Relatively weak upper-level troughing embedded in much larger, amplified ridging that spans much of eastern Canada will slowly pivot across the southern Great Lakes through the second half of the week.
525 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are sunny as high pressure continues a slow eastward trek through the central Plains. With high pressure north of the CWA, the wind regime is east-northeasterly up to the 10-20 mph range at times. The latest mid level water vapor imagery and RAP40 500mb analysis are showing the upper ridge to our west continuing an easterly move into the Plains. This ridge will continue a role for the CWA's wx through the entire short term period.
1046 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 High pressure remains largely in control over northern New England through the end of week. Sunny and warmer on Wednesday with high pressure in control. Overview: Dry in the extended with dominant high pressure over or near the region.
340 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Variably cloudy and warmer today with no rainfall expected through tonight.
Scattered showers still expected to continue overnight though on the periphery of the upper low near the Quad Cities, with highest pops favoring the southern and western portions of the area. There could be a lull Wednesday morning as the positive vorticity advection drops off briefly as the upper level low slowly tracks east. Clouds and cooler temps and showers linger for the southern half of the area Wednesday night as the upper level low slowly tracks toward the eastern Great Lakes. The last vestiges of the upper low slowly meandering through the region could affect the far SE portion of the area still a bit on Thursday. This is closer to to the departing upper low.
The slow-moving area of low pressure that brought our first appreciable widespread rainfall in months continues to slowly exit the region to the southeast, but cloud cover & a few showers still remain with lingering cyclonic flow in its wake. The main weather story this week begins on Thursday, as broad ridging develops over the Great Lakes through the weekend, leading to well-above normal temperatures along with a chance for near-record high temperatures.
341 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather for today and Thursday, along with seasonable temperatures.
Cloud coverage will also act to keep temperatures on the 'cooler' side and limit thunder chances today. Forecast high temperatures will largely remain in the 70s though areas outside of the wedge may see some slightly warmer temperatures. The wedge will still be present on Thursday keeping clouds in the area and temperatures on the 'cooler' side once again.
(Today through Thursday night) Today still has weak eastward drifting ridging across the panhandles. The weak nature of the ridge will allow subtle perturbations in the flow to pass across the panhandles. The big change for Thursday will be the increased pressure gradient cause by a deepening low pressure over SW CONUS. Temperatures under the ridge will remain on the hot side with highs in the low 90s.
148 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 (Through Tonight) Strong high pressure will be centered well to the north through Tonight, with ridge extending from it down the east coast.
A 500 mb closed low is providing forcing for ascent as a cluster of showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms are moving across portions of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana this morning. A lull in pcpn is then expected this afternoon as a upper level trough axis builds east across the FA with a sfc frontal boundary. Temperatures will remain above normal with maxTs ranging from the low 80s in the northeast to upper 80s in the southwest for today and Thursday. MinTs will fall into the lower 60s each night.
Today Currently early this morning, a closed low is located over Illinois with a ~70 kt downstream jet reaching into Kentucky north of a stronger jet to our south and east. Height falls from the closed low moving further east will help to reduce the WBZ height to 11,000 feet or less, meaning storms would not have to be as tall to produce hail.
1111 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Short term conditions should be mostly benign, as the current weather pattern remains dominated by an upper level ridge over the Four Corners/Western Texas.
424 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure over New England will build southward slowly over the next few days, wedging against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians, and bringing abundant cloud cover, patchy light rainfall and below normal temperatures.
The main features of our upcoming pattern will result in persistent cooler temperatures, frequent valley rain and mountain snow, and periods of blustery east to northeasterly winds.
The trough over to our northwest will advance and the low to our northeast will stall. Afternoon minimum humidity should fall to the teens across much of the high country and adjacent plains east out through about Morgan County. The upper level trough moves further eastward toward Colorado by Thursday putting the region under southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures are expected to be well above normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s across the lower elevations, 50s/60s for mountains, and 60s-70 for the foothills. Ensemble guidance shows the trough slowly progressing eastward through the weekend.
We chatted with SPC about this and all agreed that the actual cutoff is a bit fuzzy, but justified somewhere across the lower half of Lower MI. At upper levels, the persistent upper low will gradually open into a wave with an associated longitudinally deep and narrow PV maximum.
A weakening mid/upper low will pass well to our north as it pivots from IL into IN/OH during the day -- with a front stalling somewhere along the Ohio River along the KY/IN border.
140 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 A prolonged period of dry weather will continue through this week as high pressure remains entrenched across eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. High pressure will continue to build southward into New England tonight, resulting in clearing skies and light winds. The result will be another chilly night, especially in the Adirondacks where lows in the lower to mid 30s and areas of frost are expected. The high will remain in place Wednesday and Wednesday night, keeping skies mostly clear and the weather dry.
445 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend. Any river valley fog will burn off after sunrise, and another dry day is on tap courtesy of a strong area of high pressure. High temperatures today will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, generally around 70 degrees. However, with a warmer air mass in place, not expecting any frost formation tonight.
This trough has kept the best moisture to our south, limiting rain chances so far.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. In the mid to upper levels, an anticyclone is located over the eastern side of Cuba with broad upper level troughing over much of the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, Atlantic ridging remains in place off the Southeastern United States with lower pressure over the Caribbean. The pattern over the next few days is expected to remain persistent with broad upper level troughing over the Gulf of Mexico and upper level high pressure trying to nudge its way westward. Therefore, expect continued southwest to west flow aloft in between the trough and the ridge off to the east. In the lower levels, east to southeast flow and a veering profile will continue to advect moisture into the area.
159 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Slow moving low pressure will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms beginning tonight and continuing Wednesday through Thursday. High pressure and dry air are forecast to return for the weekend. The upper low is forecast to slowly fill in while it tracks to the Central Great Lakes. Temperatures remain a bit above normal, with highs ranging from the lower 70s north to the upper 70s south, and lows falling to about 60. Upper low will be in the vicinity of northwest Ohio at the beginning of the period and continue to move east. Mid level ridge will then develop and become quite pronounced from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Late this week and into the weekend active weather returns, with cooler temperatures and increased chances of rain expected. Zonal flow to slight troughing will allow for a gradual cool-down over the next couple of days. Although the pattern suggests slight troughing, weather will remain dry, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies for the region. Highs will be in the mid to lower 70s across northern Nevada today, with warmer highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s across central Nevada. Thursday highs will be slightly cooler, ranging from mid 60s to the north, and 70s across central Nevada.
This will put our highs in the low to mid 90s, which is more than 5 degrees above normal for this time of the year.
The extra moisture hangs around through the end of the work week as the upper level trough that has been over the area remains. The upper level trough begins to lift over the weekend as a ridge moves in.
227 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Strong high pressure centered over eastern Canada will extend down the Eastern Seaboard through the rest of the work week. Strong high pressure over eastern Canada will continue to provide a moist NE flow off the Atlantic throughout central NC as it extends deep into the SE states through tonight. Strong surface ridging will continue to extend into the Carolinas through Thursday night. This occurs as a positively tilted mid/upper trough moves through the Ohio River Valley toward the Appalachians. There will be an increase in some mid/upper level moisture, but the strong ridge axis is expected to keep any precipitation limited to spotty drizzle.
Clouds are fortunately not the low stratus type. A tad cooler for northern RRV and NW MN due to less sun today, with highs all areas mid 60s to around 70s.
Responsible for this shift toward increased rain chances is owed to a weakness in the upper heights aloft associated with the tail end of troughing extending southward from the Midwest as well as a weak surface boundary that has in recent days drifted northward from the coast line. Highs Wednesday will remain warm, likely up into the lower 90s F across the area.
An upper level low pressure system was tracking slowly southeast over northern Illinois early this morning with a nearly stationary frontal boundary across central Missouri at the surface. Tonight should be dry with lows in the low to mid 60s. An upper level ridge axis will slide east into the area on Thursday and will gradually amplify over the area through the weekend. This is going to give us warmer than normal temperatures through the period with highs from the mid 80s to around 90 each day and lows in the low to mid 60s. (Normal temperatures for this time of year are in the mid 70s with lows in the low to mid 50s).
H500 ridging will persist over the region and areas to the west and north. A mid- level cyclone will continue to progress southeastward from Iowa toward the Ohio Valley with clouds and precip associated with it remaining northeast of the area.
As the high moves to the east into the Lower MS Valley today, light easterly to southeasterly winds should prevail. Thursday is shaping up to be slightly hotter, humid and drier than today as upper ridging builds over the Southern Plains.
Lows by morning should be in the upper 60s in the Hill Country to the lower 70s elsewhere. However, most if not all the high-res guidance is showing scattered activity with this system this afternoon. Given the consensus in the high-res suite, went a bit higher with PoPs for this afternoon and will show some areas of 40 PoPs west of San Antonio. Otherwise highs today will top out in the lower to middle 90s for most locations. Otherwise, highs will be back in the lower to middle 90s.
Split mid level flow over the central CONUS this morning with an upper low rotating into the Great Lakes region. There is a weak upper ridge over the western high plains followed by a potent upper trough off the Pac NW coastline. Southwesterly mid level flow pattern spreads into the Inter-Mountain West Thursday onward, inducing a strong pressure gradient and lee troughing across Kansas.
303 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure over New England will build southward slowly over the next few days, wedging against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians, and bringing abundant cloud cover, patchy light rainfall and below normal temperatures.
A weak cold front, currently across Kansas, will experience frontolysis (dissipate) and have no impact on our weather. Model consensus for this afternoon is ~21 deg C at Norman/OUN, so some locations might be slightly warmer than yesterday with a little eastward expansion of the low-level thermal ridge.
206 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure over Quebec will sag southward across northern New England during the course of the week.
247 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Today: Water vapor movie loops showed the compact upper low was centered near the Quad Cities and was drifting eastward. Models take this low into northwest Indiana by this evening. Tonight: With the upper low and associated trough pushing into the Ohio Valley we can finally put an end to the pcpn for a while. Key messages: 1) Dry weather going into the first week of October 2) Well above normal temperatures Global models similar in developing an Omega Block across the CONUS with a big ridge in the center of the nation.
An upper level ridge axis is currently over the western Dakotas, with southeasterly flow developing over the western CWA. The highest wind gusts today around 25 mph should occur along and west of Highway 83. Ridging aloft shifts eastward across the region on Thursday, bringing much above average temperatures for this time of year.
1042 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Dry and sunny conditions are ongoing again today as a ridge continues to traverse east across the area.
148 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Strong high pressure centered over eastern Canada will extend down the Eastern Seaboard through the rest of the work week. Strong high pressure over eastern Canada will continue to provide a moist NE flow off the Atlantic throughout central NC as it extends deep into the SE states through tonight. The weak area of low pressure, associated with remnants of Ophelia, will be just off the NC coast and slowly migrate SW towards the Carolina coast. This feature and in conjunction with the high pressure anchored over the Northeast will keep N to NE flow over central NC.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge parked off the coast of Baja del Sur, leaving northwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Thicknesses will continue to increase today as the ridge pushes east, adding 2-3F onto yesterday's highs.
354 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather for today and Thursday, along with seasonable temperatures.
220 AM MDT Wed Sep 27 2023 The upper ridge that provided the warm weather the last couple of days was getting pushed east. At the same time, a cold front was crossing the forecast area early this morning. This will give the area a cooler day, with high temperatures in the 70s (some 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday). A secondary cold front will push through this evening. This, along with the secondary cold front mentioned above, will cool things even more, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
311 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Expansive high pressure over the area will bring continued dry weather with seasonable temperatures. Continued subsidence under the high will keep us dry and have continued with zero PoPs through Thursday.
As the upper level low lifts out, upper ridging currently over the central plains will build over the area.
the visually appealing cyclone approaching the PacNW coast in the water vapor channel. This block is keeping the bulk of the energy dropping through the large EPac trough off to our North. However that will be changing as we head into tomorrow as a stronger lobe of energy drops through the trough. With the dry air in place there have been some remarkable diurnal swings in the higher valleys and basins from lows in the 20s to highs in the mid 70s to 80s.
(Wednesday through Thursday) Ridging aloft will continue to become more influential throughout the remainder of this week, resulting in above normal temperatures and disappearing rain chances.
By Thursday night, a trough will begin digging into the west CONUS. Southwestern low pressure may become cut-off during the weekend.
To the east of the CWA, greater ascent ahead/south of the upper low centered over NW Illinois was aiding in scattered thunderstorms over far eastern Missouri. Not expecting to see any precipitation across the forecast area as the upper low continues to move to the east and heights begin to rise. Upper ridging builds into the central CONUS Thursday into the weekend. With a large closed low spinning over the Intermountain West, most of the disturbed weather will remain well to the west of the CWA, with dry conditions and above normal temperatures in place.
Clear skies, light afternoon breezes, and temperatures slightly above-average are expected through Thursday before gusty winds, much cooler temperatures, and chances for precipitation enter the forecast this weekend.
106 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 High pressure remains largely in control over northern New England through the end of week. Sunny and warmer on Wednesday with high pressure in control. Overview: Dry in the extended with dominant high pressure over or near the region.
334 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Dry and seasonable weather will persist through Thursday with high pressure in control.
224 AM MDT Wed Sep 27 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: This morning, a cold front at the surface is beginning to make its way through our western zones. The upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest that is bringing this change in the dry and warm weather, will remain generally over the western US through the end of the week, keeping Montana under southwest flow aloft.
Otherwise, highs will be a degree or two warmer, with light south to southwest winds.
The 500mb upper low across northern Illinois this morning will gradually shift east into northern Indiana today while ridging will build into the area through Thursday. Clouds will be on the decrease late in the day on Thursday as high pressure builds into the region. Went with the better performing CONSALL guidance for tonight and Thursday, which pretty much was a compromise between the warmer MAV guidance and the cooler MET guidance values.
We will be more on the back side of the upper-level trough currently over the Midwest. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will continue to build southwestward from the southern Appalachians and turn low- level flow out of the east as we head into tonight. A low pressure system off the Florida Panhandle will organize rain chances at the Gulf Coast today, but it looks like the drier air north of the Coast will prevail with only a slight chance for a shower or storm in far southeast MS.
252 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Expansive high pressure over the area will bring continued dry weather with seasonable temperatures. Continued subsidence under the high will keep us dry and have continued with zero PoPs through Thursday.
The Inland Northwest should anticipate periodic rain, breezy winds, and cooler than normal temperatures. While there remains differences with the low track, the ensembles are in agreement of a band of rain tracking across the region. Rain amounts carry a bit more uncertainty due to the track differences of the low.
356 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 (Issued 356 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023) Today and Tonight: The main story of the day is the continued scattered showers and isolated storms as the upper low centered over northern Illinois shifts into northern Indiana. Persistent upglide in cyclonic flow around the upper low continues to develop bands of showers with a few embedded storms.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with light southeasterly winds and low temperatures dipping into the low to mid 60s. (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Sep 262023 Short term model consensus indicates that the upper low to our northwest will begin to weaken as it drifts eastward across northern IL on Wednesday, before turning east-northeastward over the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday night/Thursday.