Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A brief break in the active weather today as the region remains between moist zonal flow to our south and a large upper level low pressure system to our northwest. Skies will clear from west to east later this morning which should allow temperatures to reach the upper 40s in the lower valleys. Large upper level low pushes toward the Washington State coast tonight returning the moist southwesterly flow.
The lingering stratus deck is steadily eroding, and temps will steadily climb into the low 50s for most. Widespread, persistent stratus has kept temperatures up this morning above the freezing mark thanks to northerly flow advecting in low- level moisture from the Great Lakes region. Precipitation will overspread the region by the late afternoon hours across our far west ahead of a low pressure system, and eventually spread eastward overnight.
224 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 The dry slot of a stacked, occluded low pressure system has resulted in plenty of sunshine this afternoon along and west of the James Valley. That said, potentially hazardous travel conditions remain in the forecast into Sunday due to strong northwesterly winds on the backside of the system as the low slides into southeastern ND this evening and into west central MN early Sunday morning. High temperatures Sunday will be in the low to mid 20s, which is 15 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year, and lows Sunday night will range between zero and 10 degrees, which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
1042 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 We had a chilly start with many areas around freezing and a few patches of frost. (Today through Sunday) Chilly night continues across Middle Tennessee as a few locations flirt with the low 30s this early morning.
Strong winds will diminish this evening before switching to the north and northeast behind a cold front. This will keep temperatures much cooler across the Permian Basin with highs mostly in the 60s and low 70s.
544 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Near perfect spring break weather is expected this weekend along the lower Texas coast.
The highest threat for severe weather will be along the advancing triple point where a cold front intersects a dry line and warm front. A few weaker showers could also form along the cold front for northeast OK/northwest AR. Overnight, breezy northerly winds will develop across the area with cooler air advecting in from the north.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Key messaging highlights: * Snow ending west to east this afternoon and early evening * Fog developing overnight * Dry into the coming work week with noted temp swings * Chance of rain or snow and windy to end the work week Snow continues across central Iowa this afternoon, originally driven by kinematic support trailing the potent Dakotas upper low, with contributions from other weaker waves moving across KS into the MO Valley. Farther southeast, the precipitation has mainly been rain with higher 0-3km wet bulb maxes supporting more melting in the low level southeasterly fetch. With a relatively small area affected by the high rates and accumulations, decided to hold off on an advisory and stick with SPSs.
This would be associated with some moisture and energy wrapping around the backside of the low. Winds will subside tonight as the low moves out and the jet streak pushes south and east of the area.
223 PM MST Sat Mar 11 2023 Tonight and tomorrow, a ridge will build over the western states behind the exiting wave and there will be rising pressure heights over Colorado. There will be westerly to northwesterly orographic flow into the mountains, which should support scattered to widespread snow showers across the high country beginning tomorrow morning and increasing through the afternoon into the evening. Persistent cold air advection beneath partly to mostly cloudy skies should keep temperatures cool tomorrow, with highs in the 30s and 40s across the plains and teens to 30s across the high country.
Water vapor showed the low pressure system over the Dakotas was moving E. This would be associated with some moisture and energy wrapping around the backside of the low. Winds will subside tonight as the low moves out and the jet streak pushes south and east of the area.
The tail-end of a frontal trough is sliding through South Florida currently, although the daytime cumulus and the east coast sea breezes are dormant. Southwest to west winds average 8 to 19 knots at the marine observation platforms, with Carysfort Reef and Whipray the highest as daytime heating enhances the gradient. Dewpoints across Southwest Florida are in the mid 60s, which indicates there is very little air mass change behind the trough axis. The potent low pressure system east of the Delmarva will slide to the east tonight leaving a short-lived gradient void across the Florida Keys.
Closest precipitation now is between Interstates 20 and 40 across Arkansas and Oklahoma, mainly to the north of a warm front. Overnight lows in the 65 to 70 range still look good, as current temperatures in the lower 70s in most areas should not drop a lot more, as winds pick up a little overnight with pressure gradient tightening a bit. Thus, weak ridge is already building across the Mississippi Valley today after trough that passed north of the region last week. Thus, the cold front that came through yesterday has dissolved and return flow has redeveloped. After a "cooler" (but still above average) start to the day, temperatures jump back up into the mid to upper 70s.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Near perfect spring break weather is expected this weekend along the lower Texas coast.
Thus, weak ridge is already building across the Mississippi Valley today after trough that passed north of the region last week. Thus, the cold front that came through yesterday has dissolved and return flow has redeveloped. After a "cooler" (but still above average) start to the day, temperatures jump back up into the mid to upper 70s.
The dry slot of a stacked, occluded low pressure system has resulted in plenty of sunshine this afternoon along and west of the James Valley. That said, potentially hazardous travel conditions remain in the forecast into Sunday due to strong northwesterly winds on the backside of the system as the low slides into southeastern ND this evening and into west central MN early Sunday morning. High temperatures Sunday will be in the low to mid 20s, which is 15 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year, and lows Sunday night will range between zero and 10 degrees, which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
No changes to the highlights issued for blowing snow. This would be associated with some moisture and energy wrapping around the backside of the low. Winds will subside tonight as the low moves out and the jet streak pushes south and east of the area.
342 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 Winter storm and blizzard impacts continue across the region this afternoon as an H5 upper low slowly moves east-southeast through North Dakota. For the southern Red River Valley, a brief transition to freezing drizzle is possible as the upper low passes overhead this afternoon and evening. Much colder air pours into the region following the passage of this upper low, with temperatures falling into the single digits Sunday night.
By Sunday morning the upper ridge is also shifted to the east.
503 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 A closed upper low over the northern Plains this afternoon will open up on its way to the Great Lakes through Sunday night.
Surface analysis depicts a weak cold front across the northern Bahamas and South Florida. Aloft, a deep cyclone is exiting well offshore from New England, with broad westerly flow to the south of this feature across the eastern CONUS. Evening marine observations and a recent ASCAT pass show NW winds still running around 15 knots off the far Upper Keys (including Carysfort Reef Light), generally around 10 knot range further west around the Middle Keys, and 10 knots or less around and west of the Lower Keys. From the synopsis, northwest breezes will continue to diminish overnight, then become light to gentle from the southwest on Sunday, as a low pressure system lifts northeast into the western North Atlantic.
Look for lows on Sunday morning in the lower to mid 50s area wide. Another warm day is expected on Sunday with temperatures warming into the lower 80s to the north and upper 80s across central Florida.
529 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 (This evening through Sunday night) As of the latest 20Z obs, the main cold front is about 90 percent through the combined Panhandles.
Following the passage of the cold front, cooler and dry weather will prevail through midweek.
815 PM MST Sat Mar 11 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure now located over far southeast ND, with cold front south and east of the forecast area. A tight pressure gradient to the west and southwest of the low continues to produce strong winds across the western Dakotas, with winds now increasing across south central SD as well. Temps below freezing with a lingering blowable snow pack is allowing for areas of blowing snow there. Further south, warmer temps and less of a snow pack has kept blowing snow subdued.
544 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will move through the Midsouth tonight, along a fast-moving cold front. Following the passage of the Sunday's cold front, cooler and dry weather will prevail through midweek.
953 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 Breezy and warm conditions will prevail overnight as the region remains under the influence of a surface trof axis extending from Kentucky southwest into northeastern Texas. This trof will gradually work towards the coast through the day Sunday swinging a cold front through the region as it does so.
329 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Periods of snow can be expected this morning as a low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley.
Early this morning, a cold front was currently working its way through the Concho Valley and Heartland and will continue to move south to the I-10 corridor before daybreak. Cold air advection behind the front will be fairly modest today allowing highs to stay much cooler than yesterday in the 60s to mid 70s along the I-10 corridor. Tonight will be much cooler overall in the upper 30s to mid 40s with winds shifting to a more east/northeasterly direction through the overnight hours.
Tonight and tomorrow, a ridge will build over the western states behind the exiting wave and there will be rising pressure heights over Colorado. There will be westerly to northwesterly orographic flow into the mountains, which should support scattered to widespread snow showers across the high country beginning tomorrow morning and increasing through the afternoon into the evening. Persistent cold air advection beneath partly to mostly cloudy skies should keep temperatures cool tomorrow, with highs in the 30s and 40s across the plains and teens to 30s across the high country.
A cold front ran south from the low through northwest Iowa into eastern Nebraska and into Kansas. Ahead of the cold front a weak boundary ran through eastern Iowa and south along the MO/IL border. Dew points were in the 20s and 30s ahead of the cold front with teens across the northern Plains. An upper level disturbance dropping in behind the low will bring the risk of snow showers and flurries generally north of a Manchester, IA to Mt.
(Today and tonight) Easterly winds are presently seen across the area as a cold front has moved trough and is now located well to the south. Easterlies will persist though today, keeping highs much cooler than yesterday in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Abundant snowpack, high pressure, and lighter winds may lead to some patchy fog tonight over portions of the west and much of the central. Lows tonight will range from close to 10 below zero across portions of the northeast, to the lower single digits above southwest.
(Tonight through Saturday) Temperatures are expected to be noticeably colder tonight across the area as a reinforcing cold front moves through the area.
1053 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 (This evening through Sunday night) As of the latest 20Z obs, the main cold front is about 90 percent through the combined Panhandles.
1120 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 A closed upper low over the northern Plains this afternoon will open up on its way to the Great Lakes through Sunday night.
With southerly flow resuming, it will be noticeably warmer in the afternoon with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s. Near critically low RH conditions expected Sunday, with RH values in the low to mid 30s across the interior.
1050 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Near perfect spring break weather is expected this weekend along the lower Texas coast.
Cold early this week with overnight lows in the lower 20s.
As the low moves across the state the main precipitation areas will be to the north and east of the low this means that northern Minnesota and western Wisconsin are the main areas with additional precipitation. Farther south in Minnesota will see some more light snow as the low moves into Wisconsin with some wrap around. The other impact for the day is this morning while we are still in the warm air advection regime we will see continued chances for freezing drizzle.
The Keys reside with a zone of mild weather between a powerful mid latitude cyclone lifting out off the New England coast and weak low pressure systems over central North America.
1032 PM MST Sat Mar 11 2023 Current surface analysis shows low pressure now located over far southeast ND, with cold front south and east of the forecast area. A tight pressure gradient to the west and southwest of the low continues to produce strong winds across the western Dakotas, with winds now increasing across south central SD as well. Temps below freezing with a lingering blowable snow pack is allowing for areas of blowing snow there. Further south, warmer temps and less of a snow pack has kept blowing snow subdued.
300 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Zonal flow aloft with dry air over the region today as seen in water vapor imagery with upper low/trough swinging through the Midwest.
127 AM MST Sun Mar 12 2023 A period of milder conditions is finally in store the next couple days as the upper low that brought the previous impactful weather of the past couple days is now all the way in Minnesota, with no chance to return. Upper ridging and anticyclonic flow will soon encompass all of south-central and SE Montana by the mid morning, drying conditions out and beginning a steady rise in temperatures.
In addition, with temperatures rising into the middle 30s at times, the snow may mix with rain in the lower elevations and may melt on roads in the afternoon given the temperatures and high March sun angle.
(Today) An area of showers and scattered thunderstorms continues to sag southeast ahead of a cold front approaching the area from the northwest. Based on current observations, the warm front may have edged just northward enough to run near or through the southern portion of Cullman county into Marshall county. For another hour or less, we will need to watch in case we just get surface based near that boundary given the high effective shear and helicity in place near and south of it. Then mesoscale guidance is showing a break from precipitation before some additional showers develop right along/ahead of the actual cold front.
Thereafter, ensembles favored a weather system approaching the California coast with a brief ridge of high pressure aloft amplifying over AZ in advance of the system.
618 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 (Today through Monday) A cold front is dropping through Central Texas this morning. The cold front will pass through our CWA by mid- morning. Frontal passage will bring a northerly wind shift and eventually cooler, drier air. The cooler air will make better progress over our eastern counties where highs in the 70s will extend down to Lavaca County. Tonight cooler advection will continue as the winds shift to the northeast to east. Low temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler Monday morning everywhere except along the Rio Grande. Cooler air will continue to flow in Monday and highs will only reach the middle 60s to middle 70s.
824 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Periods of snow can be expected this morning as a low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley. In cyclonic low level CAA, expect scattered snow showers to develop through late morning and into the afternoon, with the highest pops across our northeast.
622 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 (Today) An area of showers and scattered thunderstorms continues to sag southeast ahead of a cold front approaching the area from the northwest. Based on current observations, the warm front may have edged just northward enough to run near or through the southern portion of Cullman county into Marshall county. For another hour or less, we will need to watch in case we just get surface based near that boundary given the high effective shear and helicity in place near and south of it. Then mesoscale guidance is showing a break from precipitation before some additional showers develop right along/ahead of the actual cold front.
Eventually the front will sweep through late this evening, ushering in significantly drier and cooler air to round out the short term period.
645 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will exit the area early this morning as a cold front brings cooler and drier air into the Mid-South.
For today, things will begin to dry out, but a cold front currently near the Mississippi River will sweep across the state which will keep temperatures well below seasonal normals for mid March. Highs today will only reach the 50s with Lows tonight dipping into the 30s while getting ever so close to that freezing mark. Since it looks like temperatures would be borderline at best to fall below freezing, will hold off on any Freeze Warning since there will be much better opportunities the following two days. Skies will begin to clear on Monday with a reinforcing shot of cold air keeping Highs a few degrees cooler than today. Highs will be in the 40s maybe near 50 degrees with Lows falling below freezing.
A cold front will be moving across South Texas through the day today. Highs on Monday will be cooler and at near normal levels, with maximum temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
This precipitation and cloud cover will keep temps in the low 50s along and north of I-40 this afternoon, with upper 50s closer to the Red River.
Daytime highs are expected to peak into the lower 80s in areas near the coast and upper 80s inland. For tomorrow, an upper level trough is forecast to dig into the Eastern US, pushing a stronger cold front across the Florida Peninsula.
Shower coverage drops off tonight, once a transient ridge becomes more established overhead. However, the southwesterly flow by Monday afternoon will carry in a warmer airmass and high temperatures should climb back above or near normal for the southern half of the CWA.
Heading into tonight, rain chances should end across the southeast region bringing in quiet conditions across our forecast area as the cold front pushes south out of our CWA. In response to this, cold and dry air should begin to move in behind the front allowing for overnight lows to dip in the low to mid 40s across the area. /CRJ/ A strong high pressure will be in control for much of the period. By late Sunday night, a passing cold front will be along the MS/AL coast. Cold and dry air will filter in behind the front and by Monday morning, a 1032mb high pressure across the Upper Miss River Valley Basin, will drive a pretty stout upper-level ridge across the Mid and Deep south.
The potent upper low associated with this system is nearly stacked over the surface feature, and is expected to move rather slowly to the east-southeast today. A warm conveyor belt of isentropic lift along with a band of frontogenesis for enhancement is extending southeast to northwest ahead of and curling around the low pressure system from southern Wisconsin across the forecast area to eastern North Dakota. There is enough mid level instability ahead of the low to help enhance the snowfall rates, which is showing in the cooling cloud tops in the IR satellite imagery over NE Minnesota as of 5AM. This system will continue to produce lift across the area in the wrap-around, region of the system as the low shifts southeast today and tonight, before finally pulling off to the east on Monday.
648 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Periods of snow can be expected this morning as a low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley. Radar echoes across our east still don't appear to be reaching the ground but they should over the next hour or so as the low levels saturate. The more widespread pcpn will taper off from the west later this morning as the inverted trough axis shifts off to the east. In cyclonic low level CAA, expect scattered snow showers to develop through late morning and into the afternoon, with the highest pops across our northeast.
328 AM MDT Sun Mar 12 2023 A period of milder conditions is finally in store the next couple days as the upper low that brought the previous impactful weather of the past couple days is now all the way in Minnesota, with no chance to return. Upper ridging and anticyclonic flow will soon encompass all of south-central and SE Montana by the mid morning, drying conditions out and beginning a steady rise in temperatures.
Abundant snowpack, high pressure, and lighter winds may lead to some patchy fog tonight over portions of the west and much of the central. Lows tonight will range from close to 10 below zero across portions of the northeast, to the lower single digits above southwest. Highs will remain chilly in the east, in the low to mid teens, but highs across the west and central will range from the upper teens to upper 20s.
418 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Key points: - Cooler and somewhat breezy conditions exist for today and tomorrow, then a big warmup is in store for midweek.
Winds becoming breezy and from the SW by the afternoon before the cold front expected for tomorrow. Zonal flow aloft with dry air over the region today as seen in water vapor imagery with upper low/trough swinging through the Midwest. On Monday, series of vort maxes in weak Deep South troughiness to push surface cold front southward across the Florida Peninsula producing an increased chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. Latest SPC outlook keeps a Marginal Risk for severe weather ahead of the cold front with fairly limited dynamics.
335 AM MDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Synoptic Setup: A series of synoptic troughs and ridges reside in the flow looking back west. The previous trough has moved into the Upper Mississippi Valley with the cold surface Arctic air from it still parked over the Dakotas and eastern Montana. The next ridge is located over the Pacific Northwest and is pressing into western Montana where it will begin shallowing the arctic air out shortly. Farther west the next trough sets just off the coasts of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia and is quickly amplifying. Meanwhile, the ridge over southern BC and the Pacific Northwest will amplify and begin pressing harder on the cold pool over the High Plains of Montana.
In regards to the weather, an upper level ridge will be over the West with a northwesterly flow over Colorado. Ridgetop winds will be northwesterly around 15 kts, with the soundings showing some minimal (< 100 j/kg) surface based CAPES. It will be cooler across the plains with temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s. For tonight, partial clearing will be possible, with some lingering mountain snow showers confined to the higher west facing slopes.
Showers and thunderstorms will exit the area early this morning as a cold front brings cooler and drier air into the Mid-South.
A reinforcing cold front will pass across western Kansas this morning.
High temperatures will remain below normal but with the high cloud cover expected overnight lows will stay well above normal.