Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1202 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Upper ridge centered over Srn NM tonight extends from Srn CA to LA as an upper trough digs down across the SE states. The ridge will very slowly drift west as it spins along the US/MExico border and the trough will move farther down over FL.
Skies will continue to clear from the southwest into Friday morning as overnight lows drop into the low to mid 50s across the Lower Columbia Basin.
Temps will be around normal, except warmer in the SE in a dry slot area. Higher PoPs of 30-60% will be across the area this evening with the cold frontal passage, then PoPs decrease from W to E overnight. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase again on Saturday with the highest chances from KBIL W and S (50-70%) in in the afternoon. Again, forcing will be rather weak under a ridge. It will be cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s. The high precipitation chances will continue in the evening and decrease and shift E with time.
Combined with southerly winds mainly over NE MN will help temperatures reach the low 70s. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday as an inverted trough moves through along with a weak upper level trough.
Low level northerly flow is bringing drier and cooler air southward. An upper level low rotating southward through Georgia is bringing some high clouds to the eastern areas, but otherwise, skies are clear. The upper level low will continue southward today, with continued cool advection at low levels. Highs today will be in the lower 80s northwest to lower 90s southeast. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower 80s to lower 90s again.
(Today and tonight) An upper low in the base of a longwave trough will move from south-central Georgia this morning to northeast Florida this afternoon. This corresponds roughly with the expected southern extent of a cold front this afternoon. So within the moister air mass to the south, PW values are high enough to support deep, moist convection, especially with added lift from the upper low, the cold front, and our more routine seabreeze-inspired sources of lift. Back in the drier air north of the front, the air mass will not be any cooler, but it will be drier.
(Today through Saturday) Upper ridging centered over New Mexico this morning, with troughing from the eastern Great Lakes to Georgia. Temperatures at 3 AM CDT were generally in the lower and middle 70s. By Saturday evening, the ridge should be centered near the Arizona-New Mexico border, or perhaps a little west of there. As the mean trough to our east deepens on Saturday, it will continue to pull drier air into the area.
350 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 -Slightly warmer temperatures today. Look for warmer temperatures today in the wake of this system, with highs expected to climb into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.
Otherwise, some gustier north to northeasterly winds behind the aforementioned frontal boundary and slightly cooler than average temperatures.
348 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 An upper level ridge over the southern Rockies will persist today and tonight. A weak cold front with northeast winds will result in slightly cooler temperatures today, with highs in the lower 90s. Another warm day can be expected Saturday with highs in the lower 90s. Thunderstorm chances are not very good through early Saturday evening as the upper level trough and surface cold front will stay too far northwest.
133 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 A cold front continues to move into the area from the west today bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe.
Any precipitation with an incoming cold front should hold off until the evening.
Low level ridge axis remains upstream of Michigan early this morning. Plenty of low clouds continue to hang across most of the Western Great Lakes region just east of the ridge axis. with areas of drizzle still occurring mainly within the higher elevations. Clear skies and light winds are expected tonight with the high center overhead. Overnight lows will cool into the low to mid 40s.
The cold front that progressed into the forecast area continues to sag southward today, ushering in a significantly drier airmass. Given this, I have likewise went on the lower end of guidance for dewpoints today through Saturday. Dewpoints bottom out in the lower to middle 50's for most locations today, a breath of fresh air compared to the past month. Saturday will be dry and clear with temperatures perhaps a degree or two cooler.
148 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 High pressure will build over the Great Lakes as a cold front crosses southeast through the Ohio Valley tonight. The high will keep a cool, northerly flow in the region that could promote scattered to isolated shower development Friday afternoon. Lows will range from the upper 50s in Indiana and north- northwest of Dayton, to the low 60s in the Scioto Valley and northern Kentucky. Morning clouds are possible again Friday morning under the trough. A mean mid level trough will reside across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this weekend. This moisture, combined with weak ascent, and a nearby inverted trough, will result in a chance of showers/storms in this area. Temperatures will be cooler than normal, mainly in the 70s with lows in the 50s/lower 60s.
350 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 A cold front moves south of the region this morning. High pressure spreads over the Great Lakes late today through Saturday night. Low pressure and associated cold front moves east across the Great Lakes region early to mid week. A cold front continues to make southward progress across the area this morning. Shower chances will tend to decrease and move south with the cold front, with no rain expected by this afternoon. An upper-level trough over Illinois area moves southeast, becoming an upper low over southern Appalachia by Saturday.
(Today through Saturday) Short wave ridging has built into Middle TN and that is going to bring us another great day. A short wave trough will approach from the northwest late in the day and close off over eastern TN on Saturday. We will see some instability under this trough and that will lead to a few popup showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Dewpts were in the low 70s across SWRN sections. Temps will remain cooler than in recent days. and a bit cooler in the upper 70s to upper 80s for Sat.
349 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW, a ridge across the southern Rockies into the southern plains, a deep trough across the eastern U. and a ridge on the east coast. Ridging builds back into the northern plains 12z Fri with troughing remaining across the eastern half of the U.
Overall, how much temperatures decrease will depend on the cloud cover, but did adjust lows down slightly to be in the lower to mid 60s based on the above trend. (Friday through Saturday night) Short range model consensus suggests that a weakening mid/upper- level low (which should positioned across southeastern TN/northwestern GA early this evening) will advance southeastward across GA and off the southeastern Atlantic Coast by 12Z Saturday, as an upstream wave (currently across SD/NE) gains amplitude and travels southeastward into the TN Valley in the flow around a subtropical ridge centered across the southern NM. Although the increase in clouds should have little impact on highs tomorrow (l-m 80s), it will contribute to slightly warmer lows in the l-m 60s Saturday morning.
341 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 (Issued 341 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023) Today through Saturday: High pressure will continue to gradually slide into and through the Great Lakes Region. With the colder air moving over the warmer lake, we are getting some localized light rain over Lake Michigan. The area of high pressure is expected to move overhead Saturday which should cause the winds to become more light and variable.
325 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 Dry weather and below normal temperatures are expected to continue through the short term forecast period as high pressure remains in the Great Lakes region. Areas of low pressure are located in Oklahoma and in Southern Quebec. Daytime winds around 7-10 mph out of the NNE are expected Friday and Saturday while we are positioned southeast of the high pressure center. An upper trough moves through Saturday, but models don't produce enough moisture or instability to result in precipitation, leaving only an increase in cloud cover.
500 mb high pressure will remain centered over the southern half of New Mexico and extended over the BRO CWFA during the period. While showers and thunderstorms are not likely over any portion of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, some isolated convection is possible on Saturday over the lower Texas Gulf of Mexico waters. Meanwhile, with the mid-level ridge in control, well above normal daytime highs will result.
Troughing over the Great Lakes region on the northeast periphery of a broad southwest CONUS ridge centered around the Four Corners will bring another cloudy and cool day today. Highs today will get to the upper 60s in the northern parts of the CWA and along the Lake Michigan shoreline areas and the lower 70s for everywhere else. So about 5 to 8 degrees cooler than the normals expected for this time of year with the Fort Wayne normal high coming in at 79 and for South Bend it is 77 degrees.
414 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 Clouds and thunderstorm chances increase into this weekend as a weakening cold front meanders over the Carolinas. Another cold front should arrive midweek. A cold front becomes nearly stationary as it stalls and meanders across the Carolinas. Deep moist southerly flow will continue between high pressure to the east and mid to upper trough which cuts off over GA this morning. Temps today will be several degrees cooler with 850 temps on a steady decline from Thurs into Sat. Deep troughing will prevail along with abundant moisture which will lead to an enhanced risk for showers/storms at times, mainly on Saturday. A cold front looks to stall over or near the area before dissipating early in the period, with another cold front moving into the area late in the period.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s.
414 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 A cold front will slowly cross the area today bringing a few showers and thunderstorms with the greatest risk of rain to the east. Cold front entering western New York early this morning will crawl eastward today. Northerly component behind the front and plenty of low level moisture will maintain a fair amount of cloud cover which will keep high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.
With a longwave ridge settled over the region, generally dry and warm conditions will prevail through the entire forecast period. While most areas will remain completely dry through the forecast period, some subtropical moisture associated with Hurricane Jova in the EPac will creep into southern portions of our region (generally south of US-50) along the eastern periphery of the ridge this weekend.
(Today through Saturday) We will see a mid level trough and associated center of low pressure amplify and dig SE over the Florida Peninsula later on Friday and into the weekend along with a frontal boundary stalling in northern Florida. There will start to be some moisture resurgence with this setup as the low attracts tropical moisture and PWATs climb back over 1. Saturday will be largely similar to Friday, except the upper level low will be shifting more over the east coast to offshore into the western Atlantic and weakening throughout the day, so there are likely to be less total showers and storms. However, they will become more likely across east coast areas due to the location of the low. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s across the area for both Friday and Saturday.
An upper level trough and associated surface cold front were moving east over the forecast area this afternoon, with the front in the process of transitioning across the Appalachians. Despite the surface cold front being passed through, drier low level air will be slow to advect into the area. Forecast soundings suggest that with the aid of the disturbances aloft, convective precip may again generate with daytime heating and potentially go into Friday night, with the highest POP over our eastern counties. The 08/00z model suite analysis beginning Saturday evening shows an upper low over the Tennessee Valley at the start of the period.
However, latest HRRR and NAMnest have nearly a 20 degree surface dew point discrepancy over the northern NE Panhandle Friday afternoon with southerly flow east of the lee trough. Temperatures will again be in the 80s to low 90s Friday afternoon before a cooler, wetter pattern arrives for the weekend.
350 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 The bi-state region currently sits in an area of northwest flow aloft, situated between an upper level ridge centered in southern NM/west TX and a trough extending from eastern Canada south through Appalachia. At the surface, high pressure centered in the Upper Midwest stretches south into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This will create a light east-west temperature gradient across the region, with central Missouri peaking in the low 80s and south central Illinois peaking in the mid to upper 70s this afternoon.
This extra cloud cover is going to make getting frost difficult by keeping our temperatures warmer than they would if we cleared out. Have attempted to take a best guess at where we are most likely to get the clearing skies and cooler temperatures and went with the colder guidance. Where we are more likely to be cloudy I have gone warmer. Friday we should finally manage to clear out this cloud cover and allow some sunshine and warmer temperatures to develop.
237 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue through this afternoon under high pressure. Temperatures will cool as clouds and thunderstorm chances increase into the weekend as a cold front moves into the area and stalls. Strong to severe convection ongoing across east- central GA this afternoon should begin to track to the NE ahead of the trough axis. Also, additional convection should develop along and ahead of a cold front, which will cross the mountains this evening and stall across the central Carolinas later tonight.
154 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 Developing inland troughing combined with a trough aloft will be bringing more unsettled conditions to eastern North Carolina Friday through the weekend. The hot pattern will begin to wane after today as a trough aloft replaces the persistent upper ridge which has been over the area for most of this week. Broad upper level troughing begins to become established on Friday which will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms. Broad troughing continues over the eastern CONUS this weekend, increasing the risk for showers and thunderstorms as mid-level subsidence weakens. The best rain chances are Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west.
406 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will extend into the area through the weekend.
A trough of low pressure over Montana will remain nearly stationary for the next several days, while weak riding intrudes into our forecast area from the south. Generally WSW flow over the ridge will keep us predominantly warm/dry, but the proximity of the trough will keep isolated showers/t-storms in the forecast each afternoon/eve across Fremont and Clark Counties, and the far ern Central Mntns.
Weak troughing remains parked over the Great Lakes today but will continue to weaken with time. Light, cool north to northeast wind continues into Saturday as Canadian high pressure builds into the western Great Lakes.
For our Friday an upper level low will dive south into Florida. This will help to keep our shower chances on the higher side especially in the interior during the afternoon and evening hours. This upper level low starts to push away on Saturday but enough instability and moisture should stick around to keep rain showers chances higher.
1138 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Cooler weather will continue for the foreseeable future. * Cooler, fall-like weather is expected through the foreseeable future.
153 AM MDT Fri Sep 8 2023 07z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into central WY. Another trough noted from eastern ND to central KS. Water vapour loop depicted upper ridge centered over southern NM with southwest flow aloft over the northern Plains. Convective initiation likely midday near trough/Black Hills, moving east into the evening hours. Saturday, much cooler air is pulled into the CWA as cold front moves through early.
High pressure and dry condtions are forecast today. Today and Saturday Temperatures will be on the seasonal side with highs in the middle 70s to mid 80s, some of the lower desert locations around Wendover and Northern Nye county will see temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90, and overnight lows drop into the upper 30s to upper 40s with upper 50s to lower 60s in the lower desert location near Wendover and portions of northern Nye County.
1136 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 Currently have an upper ridge centered over southern NM/SW TX and spans across the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest. At the surface, lee troughing is in place with a stationary front across Northern TX. We are expecting an overall lull in activity for the Fri-Sat time frame as the upper ridge remains in place and the forecast area is under northwest flow aloft. There is good model agreement that by Sat night the southwest CONUS upper ridge will start to break down, allowing mean upper flow and preferred track for upper energy to sink south. This will finally pull down some Fall-like temperatures! Cold front looks to move through Sun night into Mon morning with some showers and storms also tied to the front.
153 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 Aviation Mid level troughing as well as low level moist cyclonic flow and H8 thermal troughing will act to keep extensive cloud cover and isolated showers in place through Friday. As we begin the weekend, high pressure over Ontario will feed cooler and drier into the region. Comfortable conditions will prevail with highs in the lower to mid 70s and dewpoints in the 40s and 50s.
While mixing remains marginal today, even if we can mix up to 850 mb this afternoon, we should see high temperatures into the lower to middle 80s. At the surface, a front extending from an area of low pressure in northern Nebraska, will spread northeast across the CWA into western Minnesota. While there remains quite a bit of uncertainty on just how unstable we can grow ahead of this boundary (recent trends have suggested more clouds, cooler temperatures, and less instability), scattered convection may redevelop in areas south of I-90 towards the Missouri River in the afternoon.
331 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 Light winds this morning, with high relatively humidity, so wouldn't be surprised if fog starts to get a little more observant while we sit under this low level COL. We are under a weak thermal ridge with 850mb temperatures between +15 and +18C, so should mix out into the 80s with ample sunshine. The gradient on the backside will support breezy conditions, and we will also see cooler air back in behind the low. Convection should be elevated given timing, with a warm front in south central South Dakota around midnight. To start the period strong upper high pressure over the southwest CONUS will get somewhat cutoff from ridging over western Canada.
Discussion: Upper level troughing is currently in place with a couple of notable waves seen in WV imagery, one moving out of Nebraska, and another moving out of Illinois. At the surface, a secondary cold front is located to the north across the Ohio Valley, with another front located southeast of the Appalachians.
Temperatures will be cooler with highs ranging from the mid 60s to the mid 70s.
The best way to describe the current synoptic setup for the Western Hemisphere is a messy battle between mid-latitude and tropical dominance, with a number of intertwined cyclones and anticyclones. Closer to home, the Florida Keys are squeezed between a dominant North Atlantic ridge, with its axis penetrating the Florida Panhandle, and a surface stationary trough draped over the Southeast.
(Today and tonight) The heat underneath the long-persistent upper high will bring another day of record-breaking afternoon temperatures to southwestern Oklahoma and adjacent areas south of the Red River. South to southeast east of the low will bring very humid air into southeastern Oklahoma. These features along with a weak upper wave moving around the northeastern periphery of the upper high will bring good chances for thunderstorms over south central and southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon and tonight.
The cold front was nearly becoming stationary along the higher terrain this evening, with the mid/upper trough to our west. Based on the latest data analysis and CAMS, it appears that the highest probability of new storm growth will be to the north and northeast along the outflows that stretch NW to SE from Surry to Montgomery/Davidson Counties. Strong wind appears the higher probability with hail secondary (now with developing CINH). Otherwise, expect mainly clear skies until patchy fog/stratus develop later tonight, with the higher probabilities along the Yadkin River region where it has rained tonight. The cold front moving in from the west tonight will stall across the region on Friday.
High pressure will push temperatures back to several degrees above average, with record to near record heat expected this weekend. This cloud cover has kept temperatures elevated with current temperatures running 2-6 degrees warmer than this time last night. This weekend high pressure moves slightly westward leading to an expected 2-3 degree increase in temperatures compared to today.
556 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 (Today through Saturday) Short wave ridging has built into Middle TN and that is going to bring us another great day. A short wave trough will approach from the northwest late in the day and close off over eastern TN on Saturday. We will see some instability under this trough and that will lead to a few popup showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.
1033 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will extend into the area through the weekend.
Dry weather and below normal temperatures are expected to continue through the short term forecast period as high pressure remains in the Great Lakes region. Areas of low pressure are located in Oklahoma and in Southern Quebec. Daytime winds around 7-10 mph out of the NNE are expected Friday and Saturday while we are positioned southeast of the high pressure center. An upper trough moves through Saturday, but models don't produce enough moisture or instability to result in precipitation, leaving only an increase in cloud cover.
/EC/ Through the weekend, the trough will continue to extend southeastward while an upper level high located off to our west will help establish northwesterly flow across the region.
605 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 Light winds this morning, with high relatively humidity, so wouldn't be surprised if fog starts to get a little more observant while we sit under this low level COL. We are under a weak thermal ridge with 850mb temperatures between +15 and +18C, so should mix out into the 80s with ample sunshine. The gradient on the backside will support breezy conditions, and we will also see cooler air back in behind the low. Convection should be elevated given timing, with a warm front in south central South Dakota around midnight. To start the period strong upper high pressure over the southwest CONUS will get somewhat cutoff from ridging over western Canada.
627 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 The bi-state region currently sits in an area of northwest flow aloft, situated between an upper level ridge centered in southern NM/west TX and a trough extending from eastern Canada south through Appalachia. At the surface, high pressure centered in the Upper Midwest stretches south into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This will create a light east-west temperature gradient across the region, with central Missouri peaking in the low 80s and south central Illinois peaking in the mid to upper 70s this afternoon.