Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Many places across the northern half of the forecast area dropped below freezing this morning and remain hovering around the low 30s currently. High temperatures this afternoon will likely stay in the 40s for most places, with some spots across eastern Oklahoma likely staying in the low 40s thanks to the cloud cover over the area.
Breezy return SE flow ongoing as a lee side trough deepens and WAA spreads over the region. Fairly quiet weather through Tues as deep layer ridging continues over the region. Split flow lead trough will advect east Tues, supporting the mild conds as the thermal ridge will pass over the region ahead of a splitting eastern Pac upper trough, with decent local mixing in areas. Dry weather expected through Tues and most of Wed before the western CONUS trough ejects from the Rockies and supports cyclogenesis over the Central Plains. Confidence continues to increase that this system will advect through the region as a splitting upper trough, which would support the best chances for more appreciable precip (snow) south and east of the FA, associated with the southern periphery counterpart.
Obviously not all locations will drop below freezing at 11 pm. Tomorrow should be a few degrees warmer than today with highs forecasted in the 40s everywhere.
At the sfc, high pressure will also build in from the north with continued dry and cool conditions. Temperatures will drop rapidly tonight and depending on how fast the winds decrease, some far northern areas could be near freezing by Tuesday morning. It is likely that only northern portions of those counties will get close to freezing.
(Tonight) A low pressure system moving eastward through the Great Lakes region has pushed broken to scattered cumulus clouds southeastward into the TN Valley. If this does occur, it may keep temperatures slightly warmer than currently forecast by a couple degrees, however, we would still be forecast to be below freezing.
Drier air is beginning to filter in behind the front with dew points ranging from the low and mid 40s over northwest portions of the region to the mid 50s over southeastern areas. Northerly surface winds will continue to advect drier and cooler air into the area through Tuesday as a high pressure builds in over the region. Highs this afternoon are expected to top out in the lower 60s for areas generally along and north of Highway 84. Areas south of the Highway 84 corridor will be a bit warmer with temperatures in the mid and upper 60s. Some of the guidance is hinting at the temperatures even dropping to near freezing over far inland communities around sunrise on Tuesday.
248 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Breezy but warmer temperatures on Tuesday highlights the short term period. Northwest flow aloft persisted over the forecast area this afternoon, upstream of a closed low placed over the Great Lakes region, and downstream of a weak ridge building over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, a broad high pressure was centered over eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota, with a modest pressure gradient across the forecast area leading to breezy southeast winds. Temperatures warm quite a bit on Tuesday as a low level thermal ridge moves over the Dakotas ahead of the system midweek. Highs will be in the 30s for most, with forecast highs in the lower 40s for the southwest.
High pressure will arrive Tuesday, resulting in mostly sunny skies.
Today, upper air ridging over the western CONUS takes shape as warmer temperatures from the Front Range advects into the area. A tighter pressure gradient sets up across western portions of the area between the low/clipper system to the east and the developing ridge to the west. High temperatures for today will be in the upper 40s to low 50s across east Colorado as warmer 850mb temperatures move in,; to the east temperatures will struggle to get to 40 due to the SE surface flow from the departing clipper system. Monday night,the pressure gradient remains intact southerly winds from 10-20 mph will be in place overnight, as a result I wound up warming the lows a few degrees as mixing should continue to realized keeping temperatures a bit warmer. Tuesday, a warm front moves across the area as winds become southwesterly.
Areas in the higher elevations of north Georgia could see temperatures as cool as the lower 20s. NBM temps trending slightly cooler than previous runs but other multiple CAMS not biting at this time. With mixing heights expected around 5k ft, should allow for plenty of dry air to funnel down, tanking dew points into the low 20s to upper teens with widespread relative humidity values in the low 20s across central Georgia by Tuesday afternoon.
The upper-level low over the Great Lakes Region will continue to shift southeast, and the upper level trough axis will continue to move east. The associated cold front will continue to push over the Florida Peninsula with general breezy winds with higher gust near storms.
Also, based on slight model agreement, added a slight chance for freezing rain across our north-central zones for Tuesday morning, riding a short wave disturbance from southern Saskatchewan and seeing some support from the regional winter weather desk folks.
1239 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 An upper-level trough will bring below normal temperatures and dry weather to the Mid-South through mid-week.
337 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 The afternoon surface analysis shows a trough pushing slowly across eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile, upstream we see high pressure cresting across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley. Tonight, a mid and upper level low will rotate toward the Mid-Atlantic States. The base of this trough will swing into the Ohio Valley and could generate some snow shower activity especially in the higher terrain in SE KY, where favorable upslope flow will continue to develop. Outside this high pressure will spread toward the Ohio Valley through the day and skies will slowly clear from west to east.
Resultant conditions remain sunny and comparatively warmer than where temperatures started this morning. This area of high pressure will gradually drift eastward through the evening and overnight hours. Otherwise, potential for blowing and drifting snow aside, ridging and large scale subsidence aloft should allow for quiet weather to persist through Tuesday.
Low-level ridging extends west across Cuba, equatorward of a frontal boundary pressing south through the northern Gulf of Mexico. Southwest breezes will freshen today as another low pressure system deepens across the western North Atlantic. A cold front will meander south towards the Florida Keys tonight and Tuesday, accompanied by unsettled weather and diminished breezes.
247 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Tonight and Tuesday: In the wake of yesterday's cold front passage, high pressure building into our region has brought drier and cooler air. Will keep the Freeze Warning in effect for northern and eastern portions of Mississippi, where there is the best chance to hit freezing by morning. After an early start to the spring green up, sensitive vegetation could be damaged, especially where winds go calm and temperatures drop to freezing. /NF/ Cool temperatures along with a cold front late week will be the main concerns for this forecast period. This will once again allow temperatures to fall to near or below freezing across northeast portions of central Mississippi, therefore a freeze watch is in effect for this area, and have expanded the freeze watch to include Jasper, Clarke, Sunflower and Bolivar counties.
Any wrap around precipitation from the upper low has moved east. South central Canadian based high pressure influences will build southward across eastern contiguous U. Lows tonight will be below freezing for entire mid state region. Eastern portions should reach freezing temperatures late this evening, central portions by 1 AM CDT Tuesday morning, and locations approaching TN River Valley by 2 AM CDT Tuesday morning. Freeze watch will continue for western and central portions through 9 AM CDT Tuesday morning with eastern counties not expected to get above freezing until 10 AM CDT.
1242 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Key Messages: * Cooler temperatures will continue across the region through today with highs ranging from the mid-30s to the low 40s.
Temperatures are slowly climbing out of the 50s into the lower 60s across most locations. Warmer temperatures remain for areas along the Rio Grande. As the trough moves overhead tomorrow night, rain appears unlikely at this time.
Precipitation type will be tricky tomorrow morning as a weak warm nose aloft may be enough to keep precipitation as liquid (either rain or freezing rain) outside of heavier precipitation rates where precipitation may fall as wet snow or a rain/snow mix. Regardless, temperatures are expected to be near or above freezing in most areas that see precipitation and we do not currently anticipate major travel issues or other impacts at this time outside of perhaps a few isolated slick spots on elevated roads or bridges.
1044 AM MDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over the Great Lakes with ridge building into the Rockies. At the surface, ridge extends through the Dakotas. Upper ridge building in from the west will result in dry weather and warmer temps the next few days. Temps will warm into the lower 40s from northeast WY into southwest SD, but remain in the 20s/30s over much of the western SD plains. Surface trof moves through on Tuesday, with thermal ridge overhead and downslope flow resulting in some readings into the 60s south and east of the Black Hills.
A chilly, mostly sunny day across the Mid-South to start the work week as high pressure starts to settle into the region.
However, given how dry the airmass is in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the air column overhead would essentially have to saturate from the top down.
This results in cool, dry air bringing some relief to the warm trend we've been having, possibly even five to 10 degrees below normal and in the upper 30s to upper 40s for the low temps tonight and Tuesday night. Tomorrow should be a pretty day, sunny, a light breeze, and highs in the low 60s. A potential issue at night is the possibility of some late season frost; HOWEVER, with the low RH air believe moisture to produce the frost will be lacking. Then, as the high moves off to the east the winds will begin to veer toward the east.
1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Noon temperatures across central North Dakota are struggling to get out of the single digits, with "warmer" air to our west expanding east a bit slower than expected. We dropped to a very cold -15 this March morning in Bismarck, with high pressure and no wind and clouds.
Satellite imagery this afternoon is depicting a well-formed cold front moving across the Pacific Northwest. The higher elevations will see snow. Accumulations for the lower elevations remains quite modest though, as the system will move through the region quickly. Snow will taper off behind the front by midday on Tuesday, leaving the Northern Rockies a little cooler than today and primed for the next round of winter weather.
1216 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 (Today through Tuesday) A cold front is stretched across northern Mexico west of our CWA this morning. Cooler, drier air has moved in behind the front. Temperatures are five to 15 degrees cooler. Temperatures will be cooler especially over the south and west where temperatures were well above normal yesterday. Some places will be near 15 degrees cooler today. The low level flow will keep temperatures down below normal.
Temperatures are a few degrees warmer than this time yesterday and with more sunshine today, this will support highs around 50 for the urban corridor and a bit cooler on the plains. An upper level ridge will be over the central Rockies today along with a relatively weak westerly flow aloft. Over the urban corridor and northeast plains, it will be dry and warmer. High temperatures today will warm back into the lower 50s in Denver, slightly below the normal of 55. Clearing tonight with the ridge axis shifting over CO. Strong warm advection will occur Tuesday as an upper level ridge axis shifts east across the region. 700 mb temperatures will warm to 2-3C, which combined with downslope flow and lee troughing should support high temperatures into the lower 60s over most of the plains.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Surface analysis places a cold front draped across Central Florida this afternoon. An area of high pressure will build across the eastern third of the CONUS. Forecast soundings highlight cooler, drier, continental air pushing through South Florida.
Aloft a ridge will advect over the forecast area for Tue/Wed. The ridge will bring increasing temperatures and mainly dry conditions. NBM winds again look a little on the high side given the synoptic setup over the region, so will adjust a bit downward. As for temperatures, a relatively mild airmass will accompany the ridge aloft into the Plains. The question remains, how well will the boundary layer mix out those warmer temps aloft? BUFR soundings indicate the abundance of warmth aloft, but mixing depths look paltry. Tuesday night will see increased clouds and thus warmer lows vs tnt.
125 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 A coastal low pressure system will strengthen rapidly into a major nor'easter and bring winter weather impacts to portions of Central Pennsylvania tonight through Tuesday.
140 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 A coastal low pressure system will strengthen rapidly into a major nor'easter and bring winter weather impacts to portions of Central Pennsylvania tonight through Tuesday.
Temperatures showing to be sufficiently warmer than yesterday. Most of these will be virga as they move off to the lower elevations. With most of the instability over the higher terrain and marginal moisture, there will be a chance for showers into the early evening with a few showers venture off the terrain mainly as virga. Warmer and mainly dry conditions expected Tuesday with a weak ridge aloft. Warming temperature aloft support temperatures warmer than Monday with most areas of the lower elevations hitting 60 and a few degrees warmer for the urban corridor.
Cold front moving south through the region this evening will exit to the south my midnight with northerly winds ushering in much cooler drier air.
940 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Temps across certain portions of our area have been running a little cooler than expected, thus temps have been nudged down a few degrees across those regions.
612 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Tonight and Tuesday: In the wake of yesterday's cold front passage, high pressure building into our region has brought drier and cooler air. Will keep the Freeze Warning in effect for northern and eastern portions of Mississippi, where there is the best chance to hit freezing by morning. After an early start to the spring green up, sensitive vegetation could be damaged, especially where winds go calm and temperatures drop to freezing. /NF/ Cool temperatures along with a cold front late week will be the main concerns for this forecast period. This will once again allow temperatures to fall to near or below freezing across northeast portions of central Mississippi, therefore a freeze watch is in effect for this area, and have expanded the freeze watch to include Jasper, Clarke, Sunflower and Bolivar counties.
613 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 (Tonight) A low pressure system moving eastward through the Great Lakes region has pushed broken to scattered cumulus clouds southeastward into the TN Valley. If this does occur, it may keep temperatures slightly warmer than currently forecast by a couple degrees, however, we would still be forecast to be below freezing.
1051 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 A coastal low pressure system will strengthen rapidly into a major nor'easter and bring winter weather impacts to portions of Central Pennsylvania tonight through Tuesday.
950 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 As expected, temperatures are heading toward the freezing mark this evening. Based on current temperatures we could end up a couple degrees cooler than the previous forecast suggested. The Freeze Warning is in effect until 11AM tomorrow, when most places will make it above the freezing mark. Obviously not all locations will drop below freezing at 11 pm. Tomorrow should be a few degrees warmer than today with highs forecasted in the 40s everywhere.
Diminishing trend expected after 12Z Tuesday once the upper trough and H5 jet axis finally works east of the area.
A bit warmer temperatures are in the forecast tomorrow.
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough and closed low over the eastern U. The upper ridge moves into the upper Great Lakes 00z Wed and remains through 12z Thu. A trough moves into the northern plains 12z Thu. This actually starts off Wed night with some rain and possible freezing rain which carries over into Thu with some rain. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough over the plains 12z Fri with the 500 mb closed low strengthening over the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat while also slowing down its eastward movement. The closed low and 500 mb trough move to the lower Great Lakes 12z Sun with upper ridging moving in for Mon.
728 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 (Rest of today through Tuesday) Surface analysis places a cold front draped across Central Florida this afternoon. An area of high pressure will build across the eastern third of the CONUS. Forecast soundings highlight cooler, drier, continental air pushing through South Florida.
I would be not be surprised to see a couple of locations across far northern McCurtain County, possibly Howard County, fall to freezing tonight. However, increasing cloud cover from the west may provide just enough insolation to keep all locations above freezing. However, given how dry the airmass is in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the air column overhead would essentially have to saturate from the top down.
Breezy but warmer temperatures on Tuesday highlights the short term period. Northwest flow aloft persisted over the forecast area this afternoon, upstream of a closed low placed over the Great Lakes region, and downstream of a weak ridge building over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, a broad high pressure was centered over eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota, with a modest pressure gradient across the forecast area leading to breezy southeast winds. Temperatures warm quite a bit on Tuesday as a low level thermal ridge moves over the Dakotas ahead of the system midweek. Highs will be in the 30s for most, with forecast highs in the lower 40s for the southwest.
(Tonight) We're in store for a mostly clear and cold night across the Tennessee Valley as high pressure at the surface remains in place across the Deep South.
651 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 A coastal low pressure system will strengthen rapidly into a major nor'easter and bring winter weather impacts to portions of Central Pennsylvania tonight through Tuesday.
545 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 A coastal low pressure system will strengthen rapidly into a major nor'easter and bring winter weather impacts to portions of Central Pennsylvania tonight through Tuesday.
The cold front has slowly weakened over the past several hours and should continue to lose steam as it slides eastward tonight. The shower and thunderstorm activity, as well as the weakening cold front, is noted by the various high resolution models. Tonight, expect increasing cloudiness and warm conditions with overnight temperatures in the lower 70s and winds from the west to northwest at 10 mph. If the cold front becomes more diffused than expected, an adjustment to Pops may be required. A cold front will transverse south Florida and the Florida Keys tonight and Tuesday, bringing unsettled weather across the island chain and coastal waters.
631 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 A chilly, mostly sunny day across the Mid-South to start the work week as high pressure starts to settle into the region.
308 PM MDT Mon Mar 13 2023 A welcome warming ridge of high pressure is currently moving across the region along with mostly sunny skies.
The next organized low pressure system will not arrive until at least Sat. NNW winds behind today's cold front will stay 5-10 kts tonight, increasing to around 10 kts Tuesday.
847 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Drier and cooler than normal northwest steering flow is expected through the next 24 hours, along with a period of high clouds tonight that will push south of the region on Tuesday with skies becoming Mostly Sunny. Temps will fall into the upper 30s across inland SE GA tonight, and into the lower to middle 40s for coastal SE GA and NE FL. Temps only rebounding into the lower 60s across SE GA and mid/upper 60s across NE FL on Tuesday afternoon.
147 AM MDT Tue Mar 14 2023 Water vapor shows upper ridge moving out of the Rockies into the Northern Plains, with next upper trof over the Pac NW. At the surface, lee trof/warm front has advanced into the Black Hills. Lee trof/warm front will continue to lift through the forecast area today, with thermal ridge and downslope flow helping push temps well into the 50s for many areas. Will expand the High Wind Watch to include the central Black Hills, and allow the day shift one more look before deciding on any warnings/advisories. Winds will shift northwest on Wednesday behind cold front, although mild temps are still expected before the colder air arrives late Wednesday.
Much warmer weather is forecast for Wednesday as downslope warming leads to upper 70s across far western Kansas.
The cloud cover should help to keep temperatures this afternoon a bit cooler than what we saw yesterday.
Temperatures are slowly climbing out of the 50s into the lower 60s across most locations. Warmer temperatures remain for areas along the Rio Grande.
High pressure will be well entrenched across the area by this evening into the overnight, and expect clear skies as a result. Additionally, between some areas with potentially some very thin lingering snow cover, and winds going light to calm across the area, excellent radiational cooling conditions should allow lows to drop well below blend numbers, and have trended toward the low end of the guidance envelope, with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. A southwest to northeast oriented ridge will move across central Indiana Wednesday and Wednesday night.
A gradual continued relaxation of the high latitude blocking across Canada will lead to the development of a northern branch of the flow. Precipitation during the period will result primarily from a strong cyclone crossing the region late in the work week into the upcoming weekend. Models are also indicating ridge axis over central and north-central Wisconsin late tonight. Latest guidance numbers are a few degrees warmer than the previous forecast.
Winds diminish gradually tonight, then clouds increase overnight into Wednesday ahead of a 500 mb trough over the Rockies. Ahead of 500 mb trough moving into the central and northern Rockies is a lead short wave that is moving east along the US/Canada border Wednesday afternoon and evening. NBM/WPC QPF remains on the low side Wed aftn before increasing Wed eve. Wed aftn will see light precip develop and temp profiles suggest mainly light snow, but if precip develops far enough south where 850 mb temps are a tad warmer some wintry mix is possible. The light nature of the precip and also the low chances of it occurring (5 pct chance for 0.
With ridging aloft, look for a breezy and warming southerly flow. Tonight, a low in southern Canada will bring a weak cold front across the state. There has been a slight shift northward in the track of this low, although the overall snowfall chances remain similar. NBM Probabilities would suggest the highest confidence coming in that 1 to 3 inch range, with chances for over 4 inches less than 20 percent, and chances for over 6 inches less than 10 percent. Generally along and south Interstate 94 could see some freezing rain or brief sleet Wednesday afternoon and evening. Ice accumulations at this point look low as model soundings more showing this potential comes in the form of freezing drizzle versus a true freezing rain event.
234 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 06Z surface data has high pressure running from the upper Midwest into the southern Plains. Quiet and dry conditions will be see as high pressure moves through the Midwest.