Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
941 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure over the region will give way to a weak and mainly dry cold frontal passage tonight and Saturday.
700 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023 Recent UA analysis and WV imagery shows a well defined low spinning over W NE, while modest ridging is developing over the Gulf coast states. As of 3 PM, temperatures are in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees which, combined with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s, are yielding heat index values into the middle 90s in many locations.
636 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023 (Tonight) A weak broad upper ridge was situated over the SE Lower-48 this afternoon. Within this ridge was plenty of moisture (at slightly lower elevations) advecting to the NW. Some of this moisture was moving around an upper low situated east of the Front Range. Resultant clouds over most of the area has led to cooler conditions in comparison to the past few days, with most areas having temperatures only in the lower 70s. Low temperatures otherwise will be mild ranging in the low/mid 60s.
542 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 Clouds will increase tonight into Saturday as a warm front lifts towards the Commonwealth.
735 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 A weak wave of low pressure will pass south of Pennsylvania Saturday.
724 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 High pressure over the region will give way to a weak and mainly dry cold frontal passage tonight and Saturday.
735 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 A stacked low over Nebraska is projecting a stationary front over the UP today that has been the force driving some scattered light rain showers, otherwise local surface ridging is keeping weather mostly quiet in the short term. All of these factors have contributed to a wide range of temperatures for today's high, with the Superior shores struggling to get out of the low 50s in spots while the interior west could approach 80 again. Generally expecting lows to reach into the the 40s tonight, though as the low shifts slightly closer to the UP, the gradient tightens and stronger winds should keep fog at bay.
High pressure will remain well north of the area through the next several days, with easterly flow prevailing besides an afternoon turn onshore with the sea breeze.
819 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 A cold front approaches from the north tonight, passing through the area Saturday morning.
Recent UA analysis and WV imagery shows a well defined low spinning over W NE, while modest ridging is developing over the Gulf coast states. As of 3 PM, temperatures are in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees which, combined with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s, are yielding heat index values into the middle 90s in many locations.
1007 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 Large area of high pressure remains parked over Central Canada late this evening. vertically-stacked low pressure is holding over the Central Plains. Not much change at all as we head through tonight, with the region remaining centered between northeast Canada and central Plains trough axes. Some thinning of the high clouds tonight, with generally a bit more clouds as one heads further south.
Satellite imagery shows cumulus development over the higher terrain early this afternoon with weak mid-level moisture in place across the region. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate the potential for a few isolated showers and potentially some rumbles of thunder, over the higher terrain through this evening. However, with the dry air still in place through the low- levels, much of the activity will be in the form of virga or maybe a few light sprinkles, with the main threat being the potential for some brief gusty winds.
Upper low lifting north over west TX and mid-level ridge centered over MS will bring deep layer southerly flow aloft over the region. Current guidance is pointing toward scattered afternoon storm potential across the south and east, decreasing this evening with some uptick possible late tonight west of hwy 75 as a band of showers and storms lifts north on the east side of the upper low.
KBYX radar is more active tonight with isolated showers and thunderstorms showing up over the Straits of Florida, Hawk Channel, and the Lower Keys, including Key West. The showers and thunderstorms over the Lower Keys kept reforming on a boundary that extended from the Dry Tortugas eastward to south of Marathon. A strong ridge remains in place over the North Atlantic east of North Carolina keeping a tight pressure gradient in place across the Keys. Winds will then gradually diminish this evening as this high moves further out into the North Atlantic and weakens causing the pressure gradient to ease over the area.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are expected for southwestern Wisconsin, with lower 70s in southeastern Wisconsin and the lowest temperatures at the lakeshore. Sunday, expect the high temperatures to range from the middle 60s across northern portions of the CWA to upper 50s in southern portions.
Once the aforementioned storm system moves further away fm the region, upper lvl ridging wl be bldg into the Mid-South fm the east over the weekend. In a nutshell, this wl result in lessening rain chcs and warmer temps. As far as PoP trends, the focus wl be along the western periphery of the upper ridge.
Aloft, a weak upper level ridge is in place with some slight strengthening expected overnight. Overnight, rain chances continue to decrease with the loss of daytime heating as well as subsidence from the ridge spreading into the area.
A weak wave of low pressure along a subtle quasi-stationary front currently draped over SE OH and into SW PA will result in scattered light showers through the morning before tapering off from north to south as high pressure builds to the north and the mentioned boundary sags south.
High pressure will build over the southeast US this weekend, however, plentiful moisture will remain underneath this high with PWATs expected to remain near to above 1. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday with the high pressure still in the area although its center does shift westward near the MS/AR border as a front begins to approach from the north.
Temperatures today will peak in the mid to upper 80s with slightly cooler values returning for the start of the new week. Further west, an almost vertically stacked low pressure system is positioned over eastern Nebraska/western Iowa. A cold front will approach from the northwest going into Sunday, which will act to increase wind shear and push the stationary front further south. An expansive area of high pressure will build over the Plains states for the start of the new week, turning things cooler and drier.
High pressure at the surface will be building into the Upper Great Lakes over the next day or two, causing a reorientation and strengthening of the pressure gradient over western Michigan. This ushers in a cooler and drier airmass (but also, the return of sunshine!) for the first half of the upcoming week.
Isolated thunderstorms and showers are developing along an eastward moving gust front due to high pressure which develop after the days thunderstorms over the western areas of our CWA. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s, staying a few degrees cooler on the east coast. Temperatures will rise up to the lower 90s inland on Sunday, with southeast Georgia likely having the most coverage.
345 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023 A stationary front over central Ohio will begin to move southward today as high pressure builds southward over the Great Lakes.
Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low over far Southwest Nebraska. North of the low widespread rainfall was occurring. For tonight the closed low will continue to move northeastward. Saturday will be dry as the cloud cover behind the closed low lingers over the forecast area. characterized by split-flow and cut-off lows over the western CONUS.
Low temperatures to range from the lower and middle 50s northeast to around 60 southwest. remnants of mid level low to top the ridge to our west and drop southeast in the northwest flow.
Upper- level ridge over western North America is the culprit behind these temperatures. Valley highs this afternoon will land in the middle/upper-90s, or roughly 12 to 18 deg F above normal (Valley climo for this time of year is the low 80s). Temperatures on Sunday will likely be several degrees cooler compared to Saturday, but still a solid 7 to 12 deg F above normal.
(Today and tonight) An upper low is currently strengthening near the Guadalupe mountains. Temperatures will struggle to climb out of the low 60s on the Caprock today with the rain and generally ENE winds.
This high pressure will continue to funnel moisture beneath the upper ridge with statistically significant PWATs of 1. The position of the high Sunday will be rather subsident and should suppress cloud cover, allowing for stronger surface heating with highs in the 90s which will be sufficient to initiate storms.
1140 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 A stacked low over Nebraska is projecting a stationary front over the UP today that has been the force driving some scattered light rain showers, otherwise local surface ridging is keeping weather mostly quiet in the short term. All of these factors have contributed to a wide range of temperatures for today's high, with the Superior shores struggling to get out of the low 50s in spots while the interior west could approach 80 again. Generally expecting lows to reach into the the 40s tonight, though as the low shifts slightly closer to the UP, the gradient tightens and stronger winds should keep fog at bay.
Moisture was streaming northward into the southern and central Plains on west side of the ridge axis. Tonight a compact mid level wave will move northward from west Texas into New Mexico with addition energy on the edge of the mid level ridge axis moving into Kansas from Texas and Oklahoma. Precipitation chance spread northward Sunday and Sunday night across the entire area as the northward moving mid level wave northward across the High Plains and phases with energy associated with a mid level trough moving southward from the Great Lakes to the central Plains.
1256 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023 A stacked low over Nebraska is projecting a stationary front over the UP today that has been the force driving some scattered light rain showers, otherwise local surface ridging is keeping weather mostly quiet in the short term. All of these factors have contributed to a wide range of temperatures for today's high, with the Superior shores struggling to get out of the low 50s in spots while the interior west could approach 80 again. Generally expecting lows to reach into the the 40s tonight, though as the low shifts slightly closer to the UP, the gradient tightens and stronger winds should keep fog at bay.
Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at 06Z Saturday indicates a cut-off low is centered over the northern plains, with another, weaker trough over the Desert Southwest. Short range guidance agrees the cut-off low will spin down during the day Saturday, while the other trough retrogrades and becomes part of a Rex Block over the Pacific Northwest and far southwestern Canada. This blocking pattern will inhibit any westerly component to the upper level flow, allowing Gulf of Mexico moisture to remain fixed over the southern plains. This coupled with northerly winds will limit afternoon highs to the low/mid 70s west of Dodge City, while locations east will reach into the mid 80s given a few more hours of solar insolation.
Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low over far Southwest Nebraska. North of the low widespread rainfall was occurring. For tonight the closed low will continue to move northeastward. Saturday will be dry as the cloud cover behind the closed low lingers over the forecast area. The lift increases mid week ahead of a minor ridge axis.
Stacked low pressure system over southern Nebraska is expected to lead to slowly lift northeast towards northeast Nebraska overnight. Upper low is expected to continue to weaken and fill as it lifts northeast into northern Iowa on Saturday. Southwest flow south of the low is expected to draw drier air into the region leading to increased stability from west to east.
445 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023 A weak wave of low pressure will pass south of Pennsylvania today, while a mid and upper level disturbance moving overhead will bring plenty of clouds and some light rainfall to primarily the southern third to half of the state.
238 AM MDT Sat May 13 2023 An unusual upper pattern is in place across the western CONUS, with an upper low retrograding from the Rockies to the Great Basin and a ridge riding over the top of it into western Canada. Meanwhile, a weak trough is stagnating over the Texas panhandle as it moves around a weak ridge over the southeastern CONUS. The local area is seeing high clouds streaming in from the trough to the south as well as low clouds from the north around the old upper low. Those chances spread into the remainder of the area on Sunday, as the upper trough from the south and a weak system from the north combine with low level upslope flow for weak lift.
Deep layer shear looks to be even weaker than the prior 24 hrs (only around 20kts) with some mid-level ridging, though will retain slight PoPs in far southeast Kansas today. An upper low will continue to lift northward across the southern high Plains today and into the central Plains on Sunday.
For this weekend, high pressure aloft will build up over the southeast US, but low levels will remain muggy.
(Today through Sunday Night ) An upper ridge is over the southeast U. An upper low will expand over the western U. A cold front is located in Oklahoma with showers and thunderstorms. Also, the cold front will move into Arkansas Sunday and bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows Sunday night will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
The lower atmosphere has become a bit more saturated now with light rain or drizzle showing up at some ob sites, primarily in central Wisconsin. Dry air remains in the low levels, but time sections show a well saturated mid-level, so expect cloudy skies to persist tonight. Lows will be in the low to middle 50s. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, slightly cooler near Lake Michigan.
Meanwhile, a closed, cut-off upper low across southwest Texas will lift north during the day along with other subtle waves in the sub- tropical southern branch. At the surface, a cold front located across northwest Oklahoma will remain nearly stationary or slowly lift north with a very moist and increasingly unstable airmass to the south of the boundary.
Sunday will see a higher chance of storms as a cold front moves into the region. The front will move south of the the area Sunday night, bringing a drier, cooler, and less humid airmass. Combined with dew point temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values will reach the lower 90s in the afternoon hours.
The highest chances at this time from SRQ northward, but there is a non zero chances for PGD/FMY/RSW. High pressure will remain well north of the area through the next several days, with easterly flow prevailing besides an afternoon turn onshore with the sea breeze.
The Tennessee Valley sits under an upper level ridge that encompass much of the Southeast into the Midwest. Closer to home, high pressure will act to limit widespread thunderstorm development today. The big limiting factor today is a lack of forcing mechanism and subsidence under the high.
259 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023 High pressure centered far off the North Carolina coast will linger offshore into tonight. A cold front will then move through Sunday and Sunday night followed by some upper disturbances keeping it unsettled at times through at least mid week.
442 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023 A weak wave of low pressure will pass south of Pennsylvania today, while a mid and upper level disturbance moving overhead will bring plenty of clouds and some light rainfall to primarily the southern third to half of the state.
144 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023 A stationary front over central Ohio will begin to move southward today as high pressure builds southward over the Great Lakes.
The lower levels are becoming more stable with the loss of daytime heating. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Saturday) Showers and thunderstorms developed in the high SBCAPE zone in Mississippi and are propagating along with the mid and upper level flow. Added a mention of isolated severe storms to the HWO due to the High microburst potential.
242 AM CDT Sat May 13 2023 A sprawling low pressure system is centered in southern Nebraska with a warm front extending eastward across Iowa and northern Illinois. As a lake breeze continues pushing inland, it will reorient the warm front from near Rockford to Joliet over the next few hours. Tomorrow, the warm front is expected to stall from near Freeport to Champaign. Showers and a few thunderstorms should redevelop near the front during the afternoon with the highest coverage just outside our forecast area, though scattered activity may approach I-39 after sunset. The location of the warm front will be key in a localized severe weather threat given low-level directional shear will support transient storm-scale rotation.
Closer to home, latest RAP analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary draped over northern Upper Michigan that will drop southward as a cold front. Temperatures today, however, will be a bit cooler with highs in the low 70s across the interior west, mid to upper 60s over the remainer of the interior, and 50s near the lakeshores and Keweenaw.
1145 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 Large area of high pressure remains parked over Central Canada late this evening. vertically-stacked low pressure is holding over the Central Plains. Not much change at all as we head through tonight, with the region remaining centered between northeast Canada and central Plains trough axes. Some thinning of the high clouds tonight, with generally a bit more clouds as one heads further south.
Isolated to scattered showers expected again for Saturday, mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours as we remain to the north of high pressure aloft.
5 inches of QPF look to be around 30 - 60%, with the highest chances being closer to the SD border and along and south of I-94. Sunday, the trough finally picks up this system and pushes it east of our area, ceasing the showers and thunderstorms.
Upper level flow is fairly sluggish given a blocking feature across the western CONUS which has pretty much parked most synoptic scale features. The low pressure that is brining the weather we are seeing this morning stalls out around Sioux City, IA where models show the low being quite vertically stacked. When combined with its lack of movement, air fills in the low like an empty bucket dipped into a lake resulting in it almost disappearing from the map. A stout high pressure works its way south out of central Canada pushing the decaying low back southward during the day Sunday keeping the opportunities for showers and thunderstorms ongoing through the remainder of the weekend.
Multiple short wave troughs are spawning off a deeper mid level trough to the west and are moving over the area in the southwest flow aloft.
That will be the theme as high pressure will prevail. This summer like pattern that brings afternoon thunderstorms is expected to continue for the next few days with Highs in the low 90s and Lows in the upper 60s.
633 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023 A stationary front over central Ohio will begin to move southward today as high pressure builds southward over the Great Lakes.
944 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023 A stationary front over central Ohio will begin to move southward today as high pressure builds southward over the Great Lakes.
600 AM MDT Sat May 13 2023 A relatively cool & unsettled weather pattern will persist through the weekend as a well-pronounced Rex Block takes shape in response to a retrograding upper-level low undercutting general upper-level ridging over western North America. As such, there is not really a whole lot to speak of during the short term period, with the dirty ridge taking center stage with persistent clouds and daily chances for scattered/numerous showers across a large part of southeast WY and western NE.
516 AM MDT Sat May 13 2023 A relatively cool & unsettled weather pattern will persist through the weekend as a well-pronounced Rex Block takes shape in response to a retrograding upper-level low undercutting general upper-level ridging over western North America. As such, there is not really a whole lot to speak of during the short term period, with the dirty ridge taking center stage with persistent clouds and daily chances for scattered/numerous showers across a large part of southeast WY and western NE.
534 AM MDT Sat May 13 2023 Blocking pattern across western North America will yield an unusual weather pattern for the next few days. There are still two more features to watch under the ridge that is parked over southwest Canada. One is a closed low over the Great Basin, which will strengthen over the next 24 hours, but track westward. The third one, which will affect the region tonight and more so on Sunday is a trough over west Texas and New Mexico. Ahead of this system over the Central Rockies, will be weak ridging today. There will be enough moisture trapped under the ridging for mostly cloudy skies today, but not enough lift or instability for much, if any precipitation over eastern Colorado. The higher terrain, mainly south of I-70, will be slightly unstable (CAPE up to 200 J/kg).
For today, bands of convection will rotate around the low and into the forecast area. More persistent cloud cover under the upper low today is expected to keep temperatures almost stationary with highs only in the mid to upper 60s. CAMs start to weaken the bands overnight as high pressure nudges in the from the north. Dry air entrainment under the high will cut off precip from north to south Sunday morning.
Cooler and breezy with light showers for Mother's Day, 3.
A retrograding low pressure system crosses the forecast area today and over the weekend, leading to showers and isolated thunderstorms across eastern portions of the state today and becoming more widespread on Sunday.
Should see a continued decrease in shower activity as upper low over Neb/SD starts to wash out. Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain throughout the day as we continue to be affected by this low pressure system to our south. 5 inches of QPF look to be around 30 - 60%, with the highest chances being closer to the SD border and along and south of I-94. Sunday, the trough finally picks up this system and pushes it east of our area, ceasing the showers and thunderstorms.
630 AM CDT Sat May 13 2023 (Today and tonight) An upper low is currently strengthening near the Guadalupe mountains. Temperatures will struggle to climb out of the low 60s on the Caprock today with the rain and generally ENE winds.
215 AM PDT Sat May 13 2023 High pressure will bring sunny and warm weather to the Inland Northwest this weekend, with gusty east winds both days.
620 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023 High pressure centered far off the North Carolina coast will linger offshore into tonight. A cold front will then move through Sunday and Sunday night followed by some upper disturbances keeping it unsettled at times through at least mid week.
645 AM CDT Sat May 13 2023 (Today through Sunday Night ) An upper ridge is over the southeast U. An upper low will expand over the western U. A cold front is located in Oklahoma with showers and thunderstorms. Also, the cold front will move into Arkansas Sunday and bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows Sunday night will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
958 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023 High pressure centered far off the North Carolina coast will linger offshore into tonight. A cold front will then move through Sunday and Sunday night followed by some upper disturbances keeping it unsettled at times through at least mid week.