Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1104 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 (The rest of tonight) Storms from NE OK through south central OK have expanded in coverage the last few hours with scattered svr storms ongoing nearer the moisture defined warm front extending through SE OK. This has verified well with the recent short term guidance and the evening update will accept the near term solutions of expanding storms eastward as the cold front begins to surge eastward. Ongoing forecast has this well handled the update will largely be to refine timing of the higher precip chances.
Short Term Update - Through the overnight period, the ridge will remain to our north while the heart of the high shifts out further eastward. This steady flow will keep overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s with dew points remaining in the mid to upper 60s. A ridge extending across North Florida and along the Gulf coast will maintain moderate to fresh east southeast to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
A wintry mix is likely to develop north of US 6 this afternoon with a few slick spots on bridges and overpass possible by evening.
The upper low now churning over the coast of the Carolinas will slowly weaken as it lingers off the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic coastal regions. The mid level ridge now over Michigan will expand eastward into New England by mid week. The resulting southeast return flow will drive slightly warmer low level air into Se Mi. The southeast component to the sfc winds will however keep temps several degrees cooler near the lakes. Toward the end of the week, the mid level ridge is forecast to retrogress back across Lower Michigan as the long wave pattern transitions to an omega block across NOAM. There has been some indication in the medium range model suite showing a back door cold front being driven across Se Mi this weekend in response to height falls across eastern Canada and further retrogression of the mid level ridge.
However, if it's the warmer temperatures you crave, then this forecast is for you.
122 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 High pressure continues to dominate our weather with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures in the 70s today.
Look for highs in the low to mid 80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. However, where thunderstorm coverage and associated cloud cover is more persistent, locally cooler daytime temperatures will be possible.
Upper Low is currently situated across southern South Carolina this morning. This has resulted in cooler temperatures for portions of North GA with current readings in the 60s and temperatures rising into the upper 60s and 70s under mostly clear skies. As a result, nights will be on the cooler side of climatological averages with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s.
Temperatures through the week will continue to be above average, especially as ridging aloft re-establishes itself late in the week. Meanwhile, a weak upper trough/low remain across the western CONUS leading to southwest flow aloft for our region. Toward the end of the period, guidance shows the eastern CONUS Rex Block breaking with the upper high drifting back toward the north and west into Canada at the end of the work week.
Otherwise, expect a rather pleasant Memorial day holiday today! (Today and tonight) The upper level trough continues to advance towards the eastern seaboard today, leading to additional dry weather.
The first of our rain chances will be early tomorrow morning as storms firing along a trough in central Nebraska make their way east towards the state. This trough will lose steam as it gets closer to Iowa and will still have some dry air to overcome. The atmosphere is far from primed for severe weather, but with most of the updrafts being above the freezing level and decent instability in the hail growth zone, an isolated threat for hail is possible, especially if stones are able to overcome the dry sub- cloud layer.
Overnight, a drier and less active pattern begins to take hold over West Central Texas as high pressure begins to briefly build over the area tonight. Overnight lows are expected to Expect clearing skies, drier conditions, leading to overnight lows in the low to mid 60s and high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s on Tuesday.
An upper level ridge will be over the region through the week into this weekend. The flow will be weak across the area under the ridge. Above normal temperatures will occur across the area as highs warm into the 80s each day this week and possibly even the lower 90s across the eastern Ozarks later this week into this weekend.
zonal H500 flow over the Northern Rockies today will begin to back to the southwest through the day on Tuesday as longwave troughing over the Gulf of Alaska digs south towards the western seaboard. High temperatures on this Memorial Day are expected to warm into the 70s, with temperatures warming another 3-6 degrees through the day on Tuesday as warmer air is advected northeast and over the Northern Rockies. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are then expected during the day on Tuesday as the upper level pattern backs to the southwest with the approach of the upper level trough, with showers and thunderstorms being possible along and south of the Montana Hwy 200 corridor.
This means a warmer, drier Memorial Day forecast, and even warmer temperatures on Tuesday as a summer-like air mass becomes established just as we're about to slip into June.
The lower dew points mixing out through mid Tuesday afternoon will make it tough for any showers to get going though given the lack of large scale forcing. Models showing light QPF and CAMs with isolated convection are in all likelihood developing too much instability due to the high-biased Td forecast. Assuming no showers develop, Cu coverage will diminish with sunset on Tuesday evening, with a quiet and milder night featuring lows in the lows in the low-mid 60s (localized upper 50s far north) for most spots outside of Chicago and mid-upper 60s in the city.
(Tuesday through Monday) Isolated to scattered showers and storms are again possible Tuesday afternoon with a subtle mid-level trof overhead.
1204 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night ) Strong high pressure centered toward New England will continue to bring mostly dry conditions and a light east to southeast wind to Arkansas. This will happen as the high drifts slowly toward the Atlantic Ocean. On the back side/western periphery of the high, a nearly stationary boundary will likely trigger isolated to scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms in far western Arkansas today, and in the western half of the state on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the upper level area of low pressure that has been responsible for the drier conditions that have been dominating over the area, should continue to gradually move east to northeast as high pressure builds during the next few days.
Similar threats to today's in terms of severe weather but overall remains on the low side.
Enjoy the weather, folks! Blocking pattern slowly starts to break down and the high pressure that has been locked over the Great Lakes starts to push east, slowly. Tonight, temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer as well, with widespread upper 50s to low 60s. Key Messages: 1) Unseasonably warm and dry weather continues, as high pressure dominates the region. High pressure continues to push east, as the never ending Rex Block slowly breaks down.
251 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Warm, dry and mostly sunny weather expected through the week thanks to high pressure over the region.
Precipitation Forecast for the Week The region is undergoing a pattern shift today as surface/upper level ridging slides off to the east and cyclonic flow becomes established to the west. This allows a meridional theta-e ridge that has been out over the High Plains last week to migrate eastward into the central CONUS over the next 48 hours.
MJ High pressure will produce mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures today through mid-week.
The main reason for the drier weather is that the high PW values are being pushed away to our east.
This Evening/Tonight Currently this afternoon, a closed low is located over the Carolina Coast that will gradually shift eastward through the rest of the period. Heating, combined with sufficient moisture, will allow for diurnal convection focused along the higher terrain. Discussion: An upper low, currently over eastern NC this afternoon, will be off the mid-Atlantic seaboard by the start of the period as a rex block pattern breaks down. However, through the end of the week the upper ridge shifts back west as a strong trough drops southeast off the eastern Quebec and Nova Scotia.
1224 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 High pressure will produce mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures today through mid-week.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) A weak upper level low is moving through Texas helping to spawn popup thunderstorms across the coast this morning. There will be a lull in the shower activity late tonight, but shower and thunderstorm activity returns tomorrow afternoon as a vort max slides in behind the low.
1240 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Mainly dry weather will continue today for most of the region with high pressure centered across the Great Lakes region. Low pressure to our south could result in a few light showers today mainly across the higher terrain areas of West Virginia. Dry weather and a warming trend is expected through the rest of the week under high pressure. High pressure will remain situated to the northwest over the Great Lakes region with the upper low still positioned over the Carolinas through today and tonight. High pressure is expected to retrograde across the northeastern CONUS through mid week, as the low that was over the Carolinas stalls just off the coast and weakens across the Mid Atlantic region.
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show that the mid-level anticyclone that has dominated the weather across the Upper Great Lakes during the weekend is currently centered near Drummond Island. With a dry air mass lingering and winds falling off to calm in the interior, favored the lowest guidance for min temps. Expect temps to fall to the lwr 40s at the low end over the s central/se fcst area.
(This evening through Tuesday) Our long streak of stormy evenings is set to take a break thanks to a sharpening upper ridge just to our west. As this ridge axis becomes poised squarely over the South Plains Tuesday afternoon, a dome of very warm thicknesses and deeper subsidence will overspread the region. Mostly clear skies remain on track through Tuesday save for a few stray clouds off the Caprock/immediately downstream of the upper ridge.
413 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 A cut-off upper low over South Carolina will drift northeast to Cape Hatteras tonight, then off the east coast by Tuesday.
A trough will dig southward along the California coast tonight and move towards our area through Tuesday. With the trough to the west of the area, we will continue to see warm, seasonable temperatures and breezy southwest winds but little in the way of clouds as moisture remains very limited.
Heights will begin rising today as a short wave ridge builds overhead continuing the trend of large scale subsidence. This ridge is expected to shut down most if not all of any convective chances for today. Furthermore, dry air aloft will advect overhead in the wake of the departing short wave trough. A relative weakness in the height fields aloft will exist over the Rolling Plains into southwestern Oklahoma on the east side of the building ridge. With a low level theta-e ridge spreading northward across the Rolling Plains into southwest Oklahoma, isolated convection would be possible but chances are low. A weak dryline/surface pressure trough will form in far eastern New Mexico this afternoon.
The lower dew points mixing out through mid Tuesday afternoon will make it tough for any shower to get going though given the lack of large scale forcing. Models showing light QPF and CAMs with isolated convection are in all likelihood developing too much instability due to the high-biased Td forecast. Assuming no showers develop, Cu coverage will diminish with sunset on Tuesday evening, with a quiet and milder night featuring lows in the lows in the low-mid 60s (localized upper 50s far north) for most spots outside of Chicago and mid-upper 60s in the city.
147 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023 19z surface analysis had low over southern MB with trailing trough into western NE.
Tuesday will see a continuation of the trend of warmer and moister through the area.
As the non tropical low pressure system that has been dragging drier air into our area, continues to slowly move further north. Dry air will linger till around Tuesday as a ridge builds in.
440 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Inland ridging and coastal troughing develops through mid-week, persisting through late week. A weak front with offshore low pressure development may move through the area this weekend. Very weak low pressure inland will shift overhead and offshore tonight with coastal troughing slowly developing as ridging begins to build inland. It will be another muggy night with lows in the lower 60s. Strengthening inland ridging and coastal troughing will bring an modest surge of NE winds, perhaps reflected as a weak backdoor cold front, crossing the area Tuesday. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible as well with modest lift enhancement from the broad upper low persisting over the Southeast. A mid level rex block continues over the US through early week, as upper low lingers over the Carolinas.
Low pressure could form across southern Florida near the end of the week and move northeast into the Atlantic over the weekend. The sfc pattern will feature a broad inverted trough across the region tonight. Additionally, an upper low will remain offshore the Mid- Atlantic nearly vertically stacked with its weak surface inflection.
High pressure is moving eastward and out of the Upper Great Lakes region this afternoon. Thunderstorm potential decreases fairly quickly after Midnight Tuesday night as the low lifts northeastward and diurnal instability decreases.
Efficient mixing is possible due to mean dry air in the 1000-800mb layer, aiding in dewpoints mixing out into the low-mid 50s. By Monday night, upper low will be moving along the Atlantic seaboard, ridging settled in between & upper low off the Pacific coastline. Quiet pattern will persist in our region, with dry northerly low-level flow & sfc ridging locked in. Lows will fall to a few degrees below climatological norms, in the low-mid 60s. /DC/ Upper troughing should keep flow northerly and easterly, keeping things drier (PWAT <1.
1228 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023 Another afternoon of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected as the trough across the west coast remains in place. Coverage should be less than the previous several days as slight ridging has now moved over the state. Moisture is also more modest today, with dewpoints expected to mix down into the low 40s or 30s for most locations by early afternoon.
(Rest of Today) An upper-level cyclone (currently centered across northern SC) will shift slowly east-northeastward into eastern NC over the course of the day. As this occurs, NNE flow aloft on the order of 10-20 knots across the TN Valley will back to NNW and subside by late afternoon, with broad scale subsidence in the wake of the low maintaining dry conditions and partly cloudy skies this afternoon.
REX Block generally remains in place through the short term, but does weaken considerably as the main low pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic coast fills and slowly meanders out into the Atlantic by the end of the short term. What remains of the blocking pattern aloft is broad ridging over the Great Lakes and New England, and an expansive area of troughiness across the southeast. Regional radar mosaic continues to show returns inching westward around the northern periphery of low pressure spinning over the Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures warm quite nicely tomorrow, climbing into the low to mid 80s, or a couple degrees above normal. A closed off area of low pressure, currently spinning its wheels over the water just off the southeastern CONUS, will continue to pump moisture into the region to begin the extended.
122 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Strong and persistent high pressure will maintain dry and very warm weather through the end of the week.
Dew points here are in the lower to mid 50s. It will be another warm day Tuesday with highs in the lower to mid 80s across northeast Colorado. Expect scattered storms to form during the afternoon over the higher terrain and I-25 Corridor. Blocking pattern in place over North America, ridging to our east and a closed low stalled to our west. The low will advance slowly to the Desert Southwest over the next few days, and there will be falling pressure heights and increasing southwesterly to southerly flow aloft over Colorado. There should be a gradual and consistent cooling trend through the week with near normal to slightly cool temperatures, highs are forecast to fall back to the upper 60s across the plains and 30s to 60s across the high country by the weekend.
148 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 An upper level low over the southeastern states will move off the coast today into Tuesday. High pressure will then build into the northeastern states and Ohio Valley, with warming temperatures through the week. Models continue to weakly hint at a possible light shower encroaching our extreme southeast CWFA late in the afternoon in evening due to moisture rotating around an upper level low to our southeast. Highs will range from the upper 70s southeast to the lower 80s elsewhere. Min temps Tuesday morning are expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with max temps Tuesday in the lower to mid 80s. Rather stagnant pattern with a broad mid level ridge extending from the Great Lakes into New England with troughing from the south Atlantic coast into the mid South.
High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 80s for most, and with low relative humidity values it should still feel quite comfortable out.
The forecast area remained on the southwest periphery of a large Hudson Bay high pressure system early this morning. The low dew points, combined with continued gradual warming into the 80s (cooler lakeside due to SE winds) supports relative humidity values of 15 to 25 percent in the sandy soil regions this afternoon, and again on Tuesday.
Dry conditions will continue into the weekend with generally cooler than average late May to early June temperatures.
252 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Low pressure will drift offshore through Tuesday.
An upper level ridge amplifies over the region for tomorrow and this leads to one of the hotter days of the year so far. The Permian Basin and areas to the east will be ever so slightly "cooler" in the low to mid 90s. Tuesday night sees lows bottom out in the low to mid 60s.
1120 AM MDT Mon May 29 2023 Mean western CONUS trough will continue to support unsettled weather through most of this week as subtle impulses eject and cross the region. A deeper slow moving upper low looks to then meander its way over the region toward the end of the week, supporting a better chance of more widespread showers, esp over the western third to half. Unsettled SW flow will then continue through the rest of the week, with daily chances for storms, highest probs in the western 1/3 to half of the FA, esp toward the end of the work week as a slow moving upper trough advects over the region with sufficient ll moisture.
1157 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023 (Rest of Today) An upper-level cyclone (currently centered across northern SC) will shift slowly east-northeastward into eastern NC over the course of the day. As this occurs, NNE flow aloft on the order of 10-20 knots across the TN Valley will back to NNW and subside by late afternoon, with broad scale subsidence in the wake of the low maintaining dry conditions and partly cloudy skies this afternoon.
(Today through Tuesday) Blocky pattern remains across the eastern half of the country with an upper ridge over the Great Lakes. Yesterday's double barreled upper low, as expected, has consolidated near the Georgia-South Carolina border. Another upper low was located near San Francisco. At the surface, weak low pressure was noted over the eastern Carolinas with high pressure over eastern Canada. A backdoor cold front was approximately from Kansas City to Montgomery to Savannah.
At the surface, high pressure was centered over southeast MO.
235 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 (This afternoon through Tuesday) The upper low continues to track northeast this afternoon with a current placement near the SC/NC state line closer to the coast. Per latest GOES satellite imagery and the location of the upper low, SCT/BKN midlevel clouds are still hanging on across much of the state. This has allowed for cooler temperatures particularly across the NW part of the state with readings in the upper 60s to low 80s in areas with less cloud cover. NW winds will gradually diminish this evening as the low departs and pressure gradient weakens.
310 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 A cut-off upper low over South Carolina will drift northeast to Cape Hatteras tonight, then off the east coast by Tuesday.
As we get into the overnight hours, the Rex blocking feature that resulted in the fairly stagnant weather pattern will largely dissipate and the upper ridge will have a chance to shift eastwards. Tuesday Night Through Monday High pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes will slowly drift east late in the week then retrograde back westward this weekend, bringing a summer-like week of weather.
Thus will cut back on model PoPs and go no higher than the low end of the chance category. Expect hot and mostly dry conditions through the period as upper ridging moves east and is centered across the region.
As we speak, the ridge overhead is finally given way, transitioning more into an open flow type of pattern.
Additionally, in the unchanged, humid air mass, a modest mid-level trough will slowly pass west to east over the state.
A shift from southerly to westerly winds behind this system from this evening into Tuesday will result in a bit better mixing on Tuesday, and with 850mb temperatures a bit warmer as well per the ECMWF mean, am expecting highs to be slightly warmer when compared to today.
322 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 High pressure will build across the Northeast, the eastern Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley through the week, allowing temperatures to warm. Meanwhile, high pressure will extend across the eastern Great Lakes and the Northeast. Lows will range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. It will be warm with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Split mid-level flow in place to start the period, with a longwave ridge over the upper Midwest region.
1200 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 Partly to mostly sunny skies will be the rule across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 80s. Upper low spinning over the southern Appalachians will continue to slowly shift eastward today. Mid/high cloud cover associated with the system will result in a partly to mostly sunny day, but the clouds will do little to inhibit warming as afternoon highs climb into the lower to middle 80s.
Mid-level ridging strengthens across the region keeping a lid on things outside of an isolated storm or two over the higher terrain. Afternoon temperatures should be a touch warmer with more widespread 90s as the ridge continues to build. An isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out over the higher terrain as well.
07Z water vapor imagery showed an upper high over the Great Lakes while the upper trough that had been over the west had propagated over the northern plains. At the surface, high pressure was noted to the east of the forecast area with low pressure along the lee of the Rockies. Unfortunately this is pretty difficult as there is good agreement in the low level southerly flow persisting through the week.