Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A ridge of high pressure will steadily strengthen this weekend, allowing for some of the warmest and driest conditions we will have experienced this season thus far. Near record temperatures are expected for the Northern Rockies Sunday, with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 90s in western Montana and low 100s in the lowest valleys of north-central Idaho.
In the early to mid week, the upper ridge folds over, bringing 100s back into the forecast.
Strong diurnal heating over the high terrain of eastern and northeastern New Mexico will result in initial discrete thunderstorm development by late this afternoon, with both hi-res and synoptic guidance remaining in very good agreement developing this activity into a forward-propagating multicell cluster or MCS this evening.
This afternoon, drier air continues to move in as the ridge axis shifts eastward, limiting thunderstorm development. Temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees warmer with highs in the upper 70s to 80s and lows in the 50s. Sunday, the ridge axis shifts even further east, providing warmer temperatures and drier conditions.
Near the surface, high pressure is sinking south/southeast out of the Northern High Plains into the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas. A less active pattern is likely today even as a zonal flow aloft begins to become more northwesterly downstream of an upper level ridge building in across the Intermountain West. An outside chance for thunderstorms does exist across extreme southwest Kansas late afternoon into this evening as a series of H5 vort maxima drop southeast across the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico, interacting with a quasi- stationary frontal boundary extending from northwest Texas up into southern Colorado. Cooler and drier air will move into western Kansas Saturday.
1204 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) Ensemble means depict the ridge centered over the southwestern U.
Forecast Discussion: Early this morning, a large upper low continues to spin over central Canada while a ridge sits over the west coast of the US, keeping northwest flow aloft over the central US. High temperatures today are expected to reach the low 90s with heat index values only a few degrees higher. A chance for thunderstorms return to the forecast tomorrow (Sunday) as the upper low north of the area pivots southeast and a surface boundary approaches from Nebraska.
With limited instability given the timing, think thunder chances will remain on the lower side during the early morning hours until better sfc heating takes place.
Slightly cooler and drier weather expected for today.
349 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 An upper level disturbance and cold front will bring the risk for showers and storms back to the region late today and tonight. The trough will move into central Ohio late this afternoon and this would be the period to expect showers and storms to blossom over the western half of the forecast area. Some of the latest models are showing the activity split as it crosses the region tonight, with most of the focus to our west with the surface cold front. The cold front will finally swing east shortly after dawn on Sunday.
(Today through Sunday Night) Conditions will remain dangerously hot today with limited to no rain activity expected as the mid to upper level high continues to dominate the local weather pattern. The high temperatures this afternoon will be in low 100s for much of the inland portions, the upper 90s along the southernmost portions, and the low to mid 90s along the immediate coast and Barrier Islands. This will help push the upper level ridge slightly the to west southwest of Southeast TX. Unfortunately, the mid level ridge doesn't budge much. Locations that have the best chance of any shower or thunderstorm would be the eastern counties, closer to the trough's influence and where storms developing to our north could move into.
101 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Western NOAM ridge will slowly shift east the next couple days, with mean WNW flow in place across the region. Central Canada upper low will slow this process as weak backdoor cool fronts keep temp rises in check.
243 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a cool cored airmass centered over central Manitoba and spread out over the central third of Canada and a hot, high pressure over the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West. A weak ridge juts north from the Intermountain West and runs up into the Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia.
138 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 An upper level disturbance and cold front will bring the risk for showers and storms back to the region late today and tonight. The trough will move into central Ohio late this afternoon and this would be the period to expect showers and storms to blossom over the western half of the forecast area. Some of the latest models are showing the activity split as it crosses the region tonight, with most of the focus to our west with the surface cold front. The cold front will finally swing east shortly after dawn on Sunday.
(This afternoon through Saturday) High pressure continues across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A lee trough remains situated along the Appalachians. There are significant differences between the high res models.
Very heavy rainfall will also be a concern with any cores that go up until storm motion increases as the trough gets closer by 11p-12a. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s.
As we move into the latter half of the weekend the overall upper level pattern becomes more amplified with upper level ridging building over the western CONUS and troughing from the Great Lakes into the Ohio River Valley. That will leave the local area under northwest flow aloft on the lee side of the western ridge.
Highs are expected to reach into the 75 to 80 degree range today and the low to mid 80s on Sunday. Sufficient forcing along the low-mid level trough, and expected deep moisture return (pwat values making a run at 2 inches) support inherited high likely PoPs, though some uncertainty remains on where more widespread/heavier rain tracks near a possible MCS (weak sfc reflection). Cooler otherwise tomorrow with clouds socked in for much of the day.
(Today and tonight) A weak cold front is expected to move down through the Big Country this morning and stall around the Colorado City to Winters to Brownwood area. However, the 850 mb thermal ridge will remain strong south of the front, so Heat Advisories will remain in effect this afternoon and early evening for the Concho Valley, Heartland, Northern Edwards Plateau and Northwest Hill Country, where highs in the 101-105 degree range are expected.
1134 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) Those looking for cooler weather or any form of measurable rainfall will (once again) find themselves out of luck. A mid to upper level ridge situated over the Southwestern US/West Coast should continue to dominate the weather pattern across the state, keeping rain chances slim to none throughout the short term.
(Today through Sunday) A surface boundary with a weak upper trough will swing through Middle Tennessee today, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected.
500 mb high pressure, centered over California and easing towards the Four Corners area, will remain the dominant weather feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period.
249 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Latest surface analysis shows a cold front just northwest of the PAH forecast area. The HRRR indicates more convection developing, especially along and east of the Mississippi River, after 10z and continuing through the day and gradually progressing eastward ahead of the cold front. Dry conditions are expected tonight and Sunday in the wake of the cold front. Dew points behind the front will drop off into the lower to middle 60s by Sunday afternoon, which will allow air temperatures to climb into the 90 to 95 degree range.
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis depict upper level low centered over northeastern MB. Shallow ridge is centered over the Pacific Northwest. Upper low swings south/southeastward through the Great Lakes region late into the weekend, amplifying western US ridging as it goes. This will keep us mostly warm and dry through Sunday as we sit under the eastern periphery of the ridge. Ridge shifts eastward and flattens, putting us back under west-northwest flow.
High temperatures will be several degrees cooler than yesterday in the middle 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous everywhere Sunday night as the wave and its accompanying cold front arrive.
This is leaving us in Northwest flow squeezed between the large low pressure system over northeast NOAM and the California high. with low pressure over the warmer red rock country in our SW CWA creating a gradient between high pressure over the Yampa Valley. Hot and dry conditions are expected to hang on through the period thanks to prolonged high pressure.
Result is a mostly cloudy/partly sunny day and with a northwest wind increasing to 12-25 mph a bit breezy and cooler today.
1235 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 The upper level high continues to sit near the four corner region building northward across the CWA with increasing convergence aloft.
Increasing cloud cover and coverage of storms will keep temperatures a bit cooler today compared to yesterday, but even with that bit of a difference, dewpoint values will still be above 70 in the valley. Conditions will lighten by tonight with activity appearing to mainly be confined to the higher elevations and dew point readings will be a bit more manageable tomorrow.
1216 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) The dominance of the mid-level ridge continues through the short term forecast resulting in a continued repeat of the hot, humid, and rain-free conditions over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. High temperatures are expected to remain in the triple digits for most of the CWA, while the Lower Rio Grande Valley and coastal locations will be in the upper 90s. As for the low temperatures, the same pattern should hold with the range being in upper 70s to lower 80s. While the core of the mid-level ridge has moved away from siting on top of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, its influence is still strong over the area. Rain chances have been squashed by the ridge.
1117 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2023 GOES-16 satellite imagery reveals mostly sunny skies across eastern Utah and western Colorado with just some fair weather cumulus across the northern border and along ridgetops. Minor relief from the heat is in store tonight, however, as drier and slightly cooler air moves in from the northwest. Prevailing flow will remain out of the northwest as the CWA sits on the downstream side of an amplifying ridge over the Great Basin as well as an upper level jet. The "cooler" air mass in place may keep temperatures across the north near to below normal. and the high in Grand Junction below 100 degrees.
In the post-frontal airmass, cooler than normal temperatures are expected today with highs mainly in the 70s. The deep low pressure will lead to another day of breezy northwest winds as well, similar to yesterday and sustained around 15 to 25 mph. For the start of the week, the previously discussed upper low is expected to move over the Great Lakes region, while a large upper high will expand across the southwest and south central CONUS. In response, ridging will begin to build over the Northern Rockies, while troughing develops upstream of the ridge.
Mild conditions/temps should otherwise prevail into early Sat, with lows falling/trending mainly in the lower/mid 70s. However, as the atmosphere begins to recover late tomorrow afternoon, a final round of thunderstorms may develop along a weak cold front across western/middle TN, and spread southeastward into northern AL Saturday evening. Dewpoints will likely fall into the 65-70F range by Sunday morning as the cold front shifts further southeastward, and with lack of an apparent low or mid- level forcing mechanism, we anticipate dry conditions to prevail for most of the region Sunday and Sunday night.
132 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Warmer temperatures are in store this weekend as a western upper ridge builds into the area.
422 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (Today through Sunday) Early this morning H500 ridging remains parked over the western USA with upper troughing near the Great Lakes region resulting in continued northwestern flow across the Southeast. All of todays activity will occur ahead of a cold front expected to move through the state tomorrow.
(Today) A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this morning, ahead of weak cold front, in southwesterly low level jet.
Near the surface, high pressure is sinking south/southeast out of the Northern High Plains into the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas. A less active pattern is likely today even as a zonal flow aloft begins to become more northwesterly downstream of an upper level ridge building in across the Intermountain West. An outside chance for thunderstorms does exist across extreme southwest Kansas late afternoon into this evening as a series of H5 vort maxima drop southeast across the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico, interacting with a quasi- stationary frontal boundary extending from northwest Texas up into southern Colorado.
625 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (Today through Sunday Night) Conditions will remain dangerously hot today with limited to no rain activity expected as the mid to upper level high continues to dominate the local weather pattern. The high temperatures this afternoon will be in low 100s for much of the inland portions, the upper 90s along the southernmost portions, and the low to mid 90s along the immediate coast and Barrier Islands. This will help push the upper level ridge slightly the to west southwest of Southeast TX. Unfortunately, the mid level ridge doesn't budge much. Locations that have the best chance of any shower or thunderstorm would be the eastern counties, closer to the trough's influence and where storms developing to our north could move into.
635 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (Today) A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this morning, ahead of weak cold front, in southwesterly low level jet.
Scattered clouds around with a few showers this aftn anticipated near the Intl border with increased sky cover by that time as upper low drops south. Result is a mostly cloudy/partly sunny day and with a northwest wind increasing to 12-25 mph a bit breezy and cooler today.
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front just northwest of the PAH forecast area. The HRRR indicates more convection developing, especially along and east of the Mississippi River, after 10z and continuing through the day and gradually progressing eastward ahead of the cold front. Dry conditions are expected tonight and Sunday in the wake of the cold front. Dew points behind the front will drop off into the lower to middle 60s by Sunday afternoon, which will allow air temperatures to climb into the 90 to 95 degree range.
The vertical profile here features a fair amount of dry air in the low levels, so this would fall into the "elevated hail chances" category.
621 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front is expected to move down through the Big Country this morning and stall around the Colorado City to Winters to Brownwood area. However, the 850 mb thermal ridge will remain strong south of the front, so Heat Advisories will remain in effect this afternoon and early evening for the Concho Valley, Heartland, Northern Edwards Plateau and Northwest Hill Country, where highs in the 101-105 degree range are expected.
High pressure aloft will continue to bring dangerous heat to S TX today. Sunday's forecast is a tad more tricky as models show a mid level inverted trough tracking west across the southern portions of S TX, which could lead to max temps being a couple of degrees cooler. However, several models indicate temps to actually be a couple of degrees warmer.
High pressure building over the region this weekend will lead to hot temperatures and very dry air today and especially Sunday where near record setting heat is expected with highs in valleys in the lower 100s.
739 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 An upper level disturbance and cold front will bring the risk for showers and storms back to the region late today and tonight. The trough will move into central Ohio late this afternoon and this would be the period to expect showers and storms to blossom over the western half of the forecast area. Some of the latest models are showing the activity split as it crosses the region tonight, with most of the focus to our west with the surface cold front. The cold front will finally swing east shortly after dawn on Sunday.
There was a cluster of showers and thunderstorms initially along and north of the Lower Keys. Weak ridge axis remains just to our north which is keeping surface winds from the southeast. An approaching mid and upper level trough will nose into the southeast U. later today which will shove the ridge axis south. Thereafter, the ridge will gradually build back westward across the southwest Atlantic.
Temperatures will peak today across most inland areas as the high pressure strengthens aloft. Sunday, the ridge starts to shift eastward and the flow becomes more zonal. This will likely increase the afternoon northwesterly winds and bring some cooler air to the coastal counties.
521 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 The upper level high continues to sit near the four corner region building northward across the CWA with increasing convergence aloft.
Satellite depicts a few low clouds around over the lower elevations, but coverage is quite patchy and there are no visibility issues at the surface. Temperatures will be quite similar to yesterday's values with highs generally in the low 80's for most of our urban areas and plains.
Aloft, strong closed low pressure over Manitoba will shift to Ontario, with a lobe rotating around it and over our area. This will support a weak cold front which will move through tonight. Ahead of the cold front, warm/moist advection is occurring. Showers are breaking out in this regime over central KY currently, while thunderstorms area occurring further west over southern IL, closer to the cold front. The showers should become more numerous as they progress across the JKL forecast area today, with thunderstorms also cropping up as surface heating occurs and the cold front approaches. The entire regime shifts east tonight and the cold front passes.
* Strong to severe storms are possible across the area on Sunday with the arrival of a cold front.
Smoke from Canadian wildfires continue to blanket the area today as upper level ridging across the Northwestern CONUS results in northwesterly flow across the area. Aside from the smoke, it will also be slightly warmer today, with most areas across the area seeing highs about 6 degrees warmer than yesterday along with a 10% chance of seeing a shower or thunderstorm across the North Central Plains. The upper level ridge will slide a little further eastward on Sunday, which will help to start to slowly kick the smoke out of the area, while allowing temperatures to climb further for the afternoon. Expect most areas to see highs reach and exceed 90 across the lower elevations on Sunday.
953 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Weak high pressure remains situated across the FL peninsula. A lee trough remains across the eastern portion of the CWA. A weak cold front stretches from the central Great Lakes back through northern TX. Some early morning shra have fired along the weak lee trough this morning. (Today through Sunday) Early this morning H500 ridging remains parked over the western USA with upper troughing near the Great Lakes region resulting in continued northwestern flow across the Southeast. All of todays activity will occur ahead of a cold front expected to move through the state tomorrow.
The Delta is the exception where Travis AFB is presently in the lower 60s with a weak Delta Breeze. Excessive heat remains ontrack through the weekend under strong high pressure. The ridge will begin to move eastward slightly on Sunday, but temperatures are expected to remain near Saturday's highs.
626 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (Today through Sunday) A surface boundary with a weak upper trough will swing through Middle Tennessee today, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected.
625 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front continues to move slowly south ushering in lower temperatures and dewpoints. There will be some potential for wind with these storms depending on how the evolve, but the higher potential for severe storms looks to be west of our forecast area, but we will be watching the evolution and the environment.
Daytime high temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s across the island chain, and heat indices will climb to 108 to 112 Fahrenheit. A weak ridge will main just north of the Island and over South Florida today. The ridge will shift back over the in area tonight as a trough reestablishes its hold over the eastern United States.
629 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 The upper low over central Canada will wobble south into the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday. This should allow for temps to get to near 90F in the S, upper 80s central and mid 80s on the higher terrain of the Allegheny Plateau. Sunday may be a few degs cooler than Sat and Mon.
Upper-air pattern will remain fairly stagnant for us during the short-term period with ridging across the southwest CONUS and a trough that is centered over south-central Canada and expanding southward into the southern CONUS. The reason for this highly depends on the aforementioned frontal boundary that will move towards our area along with the cloud cover and potential precipitation today. From there, it looks like it's going to be all ridge.
643 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Low pressure works east across the Ohio Valley today with a front gradually working east over our area by Sunday morning. Weak high pressure builds in Sunday night. This will line up well for peak heating and high-res/CAMS show storms developing first along the southern Blue Ridge into the Mountain Empire by 1-2pm then spreading/expanding north and east to the rest of the area by late afternoon/early evening. Temps today will heat up to normal mid July values of upper 70s to mid 80s along/west of the Blue Ridge, to upper 80s/near 90 east. A frontal boundary will finally push through our area Sunday with the assistance of northwest flow on the southern end of an upper low which is centered over Canada.
(Today and tonight) The cold front continues to move slowly south ushering in lower temperatures and dewpoints. There will be some potential for wind with these storms depending on how the evolve, but the higher potential for severe storms looks to be west of our forecast area, but we will be watching the evolution and the environment.
513 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Western NOAM ridge will slowly shift east the next couple days, with mean WNW flow in place across the region. Central Canada upper low will slow this process as weak backdoor cool fronts keep temp rises in check.
(Today through Sunday) Early this morning H500 ridging remains parked over the western USA with upper troughing near the Great Lakes region resulting in continued northwestern flow across the Southeast. All of todays activity will occur ahead of a cold front expected to move through the state tomorrow.
Area of high pressure continues to dominate over the Gulf waters keeping winds 10 knots or less with an onshore shift each afternoon.
The high-res models have been hinting at a broken line of shra/tsra forming just east of the metro ATL area later this evening and moving east.
151 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Upper level high pressure across the southwest U.