Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
422 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Today and tonight: A flat upper ridge continues to be the predominant influence to our area resulting in hot and dry conditions.
High pressure over Arizona will continue to bring very hot conditions into the weekend.
An approaching cold front will bring additional showers and storms Friday, with a focus in the southern areas.
208 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Key Message: 1) High pressure slowly moves through behind the passing cold front. Postfrontal airmass is in place, with high pressure slowly pushing in through the west in the next 24 hours. Latest SREF guidance runs suggest a short wave upper trof to continue to dig down acrs the western GRT LKS and the local area into Sat morning.
Pressure gradient weakens as a high pressure system builds into the region on Friday.
However, we can't completely let down our guard with a cold front to our north positioned to make passage tonight. This combined with the northerly flow into the region will help limit our high temperatures to only the lower 80s. Dewpoints will only be in the low to mid 60s which will feel quite nice compared to what we've experienced of late! Fantastic weather greets us for the beginning of the coming weekend.
309 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Ongoing convection will continue to congeal into a solid line of thunderstorms as cold front progresses through the area late this afternoon with activity sweeping east and southeast of the region during the early evening.
As for temps, these will hold and remain unseasonably warm due to the high lower level conditions and just enough of a pressure gradient to linger light winds. This is due to our area being more under the low level thermal ridge axis due to the proximity of us being just ahead of a surface boundary.
/CME/ Today and tonight: A flat upper ridge continues to be the predominant influence to our area resulting in hot and dry conditions.
A cold front will dig southeast across the area during the day into the evening, with drier air filtering in behind.
A weak cold front is forecast to move into the Big Country on Friday afternoon. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures- highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s.
Otherwise, it will be a cooler day all around given the increased cloud cover and convection, with temperatures peaking in the 70s and 80s this afternoon. Upper flow becomes more northwesterly on Friday as heights rise with a building ridge.
This trend will continue into the weekend as the upper level ridge remains across the region.
1213 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Key Message: - Best measurable rain chances today/tonight will be confined to the far southwestern CWA, with drier and cooler air moving into the area by Friday. Thereafter, northerly surface winds will advect notably drier air into the CWA through the afternoon hours, with dewpoints in the low to middle 60s by sunset. Widespread convection is expected to develop over the High Plains during the afternoon, with a MCS diving from southwest Kansas into northeast Oklahoma overnight.
(Tonight through Friday night) The very persistent subtropical ridge axis extending from the Desert Southwest into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico will retreat slightly northwest through the short-term period.
Its trailing cold front will begin dropping south through the CWA during the first half of the night. Light CAA will limit high temperatures to the low to mid 80s. The upcoming weekend is shaping up to be fairly nice and calm as broad high pressure with Canadian origins (albeit highly modified) spreads into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
1214 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge will slide westward and be centered over western New Mexico today. This shift in the high pressure will give some relief to temperatures this afternoon with high temperatures mostly in the 90s, but a few locations (mostly off the Caprock) may approach the triple digit mark.
Mean-layer ridging stretches from the Southwest US to the western North Atlantic east of the Bahamas.
High pressure builds into the area during the overnight, with this high set to control our weather into at least the start of the weekend. Shower and storm threat end quickly this evening as forcing departs and high pressure begins to exert more influence. Slightly Cooler but Pleasant.
The upper level ridge will erode slightly as it shifts toward the west. The low level flow will continue to be from the south to southeast. With the shift of the upper high temperatures may be a degree or two cooler Friday morning. The upper ridge will continue to slide westward Friday.
855 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Strengthening high pressure over the Great Basin and Southwestern US will bring warming into the weekend with dangerous heat continuing over inland areas, especially for the deserts.
Diurnal cumulus beginning to build into the region, some CAMs indicate some sprinkles but the low POP forecast remains on track. The cold front is now just moving into westerly Wisconsin this morning, so there may still be a window for a few additional showers and storms through mid-morning. Southeast Wisconsin will be the warm spot today, in the low/mid 80s.
A cold front pushes through on Friday. Friday night through the weekend look dry with high pressure in place.
333 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Muggy conditions return tomorrow as a moist southerly flow strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front. Over the weekend showers and storms become more isolated and confined to the mountains as high pressure builds into New England.
High pressure builds into the area during the overnight, with this high set to control our weather into at least the start of the weekend. Shower and storm threat end quickly this evening as forcing departs and high pressure begins to exert more influence.
Synoptically, the region remains under the influence of a large dome of high pressure stretching from California all the way to the Big Bend of Florida.
Cooler Friday with slow warm up and dry conditions for the weekend. Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: The area remains positioned in a northwest flow pattern on the northeast periphery of an upper level high. This activity looks to move east of the area by early afternoon however lingering cloud cover and cooling 850mb temps will keep temps much cooler than normal with guidance showing high temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s.
High pressure will remain in place through the weekend, resulting in predominantly hot and dry conditions.
A warm front is now approaching the I-94 corridor in MI while a cold front is between Milwaukee and Chicago. Though, discrete storms toward the warm front would have the greatest tornado potential due to enhanced helicity there. Cooler and not as humid on Friday with dry weather. Passage of the strong upper trough today will set up the local area for a series of northwest flow waves from Friday night through the weekend.
Overall flow per EC/GFS ensembles, along with deterministic models, continue to indicate the ongoing low pressure system over northeast Canada and a ridge over the western CONUS (and a strong mid level high over the Southwest) at 500mb by 00Z Friday. At the surface, a high pressure system remains over the area with a system to our southwest.
1219 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 (Today through Friday Night) Dangerous hot and dry conditions continue today and Friday as mid to upper level ridge dominates the pattern. Upper ridging weakens and expands further east today. ridging aloft continues to weaken and/or retreat westward. At the sfc, winds will gradually transition to the southwest as high pressure moves across the Southeastern CONUS.
136 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Strengthening high pressure over the Great Basin and Southwestern US will bring warming into the weekend with dangerous heat continuing over inland areas, especially for the deserts.
Convection has already developed over the high terrain, but it may struggle to move over the valleys. With the ridge of high pressure still centered over New Mexico temperatures will again be above normal.
354 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.
1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 (Today through Friday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending from Arizona to the ArklaTex, flattened by a Canadian trough entering the Great Lakes region. Widespread triple digits are still expected today, but cooler than yesterday. However, a heat advisory will continue for the higher elevations. Friday, the ridge shifts west to Arizona as the Canadian trough digs into the northeast CONUS, dropping thicknesses further over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. In addition, models even bring a cold front into the northeast zones, which will temper highs there as well. A heat advisory may still be needed for the higher elevations, but we'll let later shifts make the call on that one.
143 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 A cold front will move across central Illinois today clearing the area by this evening.
A light breeze out of the north-northwest will continue as well with center of high pressure over the High Plains of Montana and the departing low/trough within the western Great Lakes. Sunny above the low clouds so should clear out by 15z. Sun above the low cloud deck and drying out in the 925 mb layer will result in clearing of these clouds likely mid morning.
The latest SPC outlook shows the highest severe storm threat in NE OK, ramping down with time as storms move east.
For storms, afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the higher terrain of Colorado. Have the highest of confidence in our western zones for heavy rainfall.
The upper ridge breaks down and shifts west Friday allowing for lower heights and "cooling" temperatures. It will remain hot for the higher elevations so have issued another Heat Advisory for these locations.
(Rest of today through Friday) A gradual drying and warming trend begins today as mid-level ridging remains in place over Florida and a plume of Saharan dust approaches from the east. Ridging will weaken (but remain in place) on Friday as an upper- level trough drops over the eastern US. This will help push the ridge axis of the Atlantic high southward, resulting in a shift to more southerly-southwesterly winds over the area. With enough moisture still lingering near the lower levels and the slow push inland of the Saharan dust plume, chances for showers and storms will remain elevated on Friday afternoon, especially over the interior and southwest. Temperatures will continue to climb through the short term, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s both days.
Some leftover forcing with this trough and lingering weak instability (MLCAPE 100-500 J/kg) is resulting in isolated to scattered showers over the central and eastern UP. Instability toward the higher end of that range is found along the counties bordering Lake Michigan where a couple rumbles of thunder and brief heavy downpours continue to be possible through the afternoon. A ridge of high pressure will steadily expand in from the west through tonight, bringing a clearing trend. Tonight, lows are expected to be near to slightly below normal in the low to mid-50s, but some upper 40s are possible over the western interior in closer proximity to the ridging. Dry midlevel air is working into the region this afternoon will remain in place through Friday while a weak ridge briefly builds over the Great Lakes.
1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 (Today and tonight) The bad news is that hot and dry conditions are once again expected today, with highs well above seasonal normals as an upper level ridge centered across the Desert Southwest continues to dominate our weather. Temperatures across the northern Edwards Plateau will be slightly cooler, in the 100 to 102 range, so an advisory was not needed.
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 (Today and tonight) Mid-level ridging will continue to dominate the Southern Plains today, with the northern stream of the ridge over our area. Not much relief will accompany this boundary until later this evening as dewpoints will still be in the low 70s for most places. Storms are expected to move in from the High Plains and begin to form into a complex of storms in northwest Oklahoma.
Drier airmass along with warmer temperatures expected for Friday. An upper level high amplifies while sitting over the Four Corners this weekend.
A weak cold front is forecast to move into the Big Country on Friday afternoon. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures- highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s. (Friday night through next Thursday) Look for slightly cooler temperatures this weekend as the strong upper level high remains over the western CONUS.
/16 (Now through Friday) Weather through the rest of the work week will be dominated by an upper ridge stretching east over the northern Gulf coast, with above seasonal temperatures continuing. Combined with the high moisture levels, Heat Indices rising into the 107-112 degree range today are expected again on Friday, with a Heat Advisory likely to be issued later today.
After that, a slightly cooler NW low level wind develops over Lower Mi as the primary low pressure system exits eastward. Ongoing convection will continue to congeal into a solid line of thunderstorms as cold front progresses through the area late this afternoon with activity sweeping east and southeast of the region during the early evening.
742 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 A few more rounds of thunderstorms are possible through Friday before a weak cold front moves south across our region Friday night. Cooler temperatures over the weekend, with temperatures and humidity slowly rise again in mid week. The upper ridge retrogrades slightly allowing the NW flow to be directed a little more into GA, so best convective chances besides of course the mountains will be across the SW half of the area. As of 210 PM Thursday: Amplifying high pressure persists across the southwest and south central CONUS. By Friday night, remnant trough axis will continue to swing eastward and bring a surface boundary across the CWA.
1029 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 A few more rounds of thunderstorms are possible through Friday before a weak cold front moves south across our region Friday night. Cooler temperatures over the weekend, with temperatures and humidity slowly rise again in mid week. The upper ridge retrogrades slightly allowing the NW flow to be directed a little more into GA, so best convective chances besides of course the mountains will be across the SW half of the area. As of 210 PM Thursday: Amplifying high pressure persists across the southwest and south central CONUS. By Friday night, remnant trough axis will continue to swing eastward and bring a surface boundary across the CWA.
544 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Update The cold front has moved through the cwa and the severe wx has moved east. Radar shows a line of showers and thunderstorms accompanying a cold front as it moves across Lower MI.
A cold front should cross the Mid Atlantic on Friday, and high pressure will bring drier weather for Friday night through the weekend.
539 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 A few more rounds of thunderstorms are possible through Friday before a weak cold front moves south across our region Friday night. Cooler temperatures over the weekend, with temperatures and humidity slowly rise again in mid week. The upper ridge retrogrades slightly allowing the NW flow to be directed a little more into GA, so best convective chances besides of course the mountains will be across the SW half of the area. As of 210 PM Thursday: Amplifying high pressure persists across the southwest and south central CONUS. By Friday night, remnant trough axis will continue to swing eastward and bring a surface boundary across the CWA.
911 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.
An upper ridge will build over the area through Friday for dry conditions and a continued warming trend.
929 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Low pressure and associated cold front continue to slowly exit eastward away from Michigan late this evening. as upstream high pressure builds into the Western Great Lakes region. High pressure builds into the area during the overnight, with this high set to control our weather into at least the start of the weekend. Shower and storm threat end quickly this evening as forcing departs and high pressure begins to exert more influence.
657 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 The cold front has cleared much of the Chicago metro, with convective initiation finally attempting more sustained deeper convection north of the Kankakee River Valley. Forcing remains hard to come by in our area, with convection remaining tied directly to the cold front in Illinois and northwest Indiana. Strong to severe storms farther ENE are receiving an extra boost of forcing from a mid-level trough rotating across the western Great Lakes.
The overhead ridge responsible for this week's hot temperatures will strengthen as we head into the weekend, bringing another round of dangerous temperatures to the region.
Key Message: 1) High pressure slowly moves through behind the passing cold front. Postfrontal airmass is in place, with high pressure slowly pushing in through the west in the next 24 hours. Latest SREF guidance runs suggest a short wave upper trof to continue to dig down acrs the western GRT LKS and the local area into Sat morning.
656 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.
203 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Drier and warmer conditions with typical westerly afternoon breezes return today into the weekend.
735 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) The very persistent subtropical ridge axis extending from the Desert Southwest into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico will retreat slightly northwest through the short-term period.
Urban areas have the highest chance in experiening problems. Northwest flow behind a cold front will keep this period seasonably cool.
Tomorrow will be a similar day as high temperatures warm a little bit more into the upper 70s to mid 80s in response to slightly warmer 850 mb temperatures. Shear is also on the lower side as 0- 6 km shear will only reach up to about 30 knots.
High pressure over Arizona will continue to bring very hot conditions into the weekend. An elongated and very strong high pressure system stretches along the southern tier of states including Arizona. The flow around the high pressure system is unfavorable for monsoon moisture today, with just some very limited moisture in the White Mountains where isolated showers have developed. Elsewhere, it is mostly sunny with some flat cumulus development over the higher terrain.
728 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Aviation The cold front has moved through the cwa and the severe wx has moved east. Radar shows a line of showers and thunderstorms accompanying a cold front as it moves across Lower MI.
2 inches, ample MLCape, and RH near 80 percent in the lowest 300mb.
741 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.
(Today through Saturday) Upper levels this morning show ridging across much of the southern CONUS and amplified northward along the Rockies. A trough is moving eastward out of the Great Lakes and in to New England. Central Alabama is influenced by the ridge and warm temperatures across the south and northwesterly flow around the trough in the north. Cooler air behind the front will keep highs on Saturday in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Waves will slowly subside this evening as winds become light with weak high pressure moving across the area. Much of the 00z guidance has dewpoints only in the lower/mid 50s. Opted to make no changes to current 30-40 pops, but if trends continue, the highest pops can eventually be focused near the lake.
The front will become quasi-stationary over SC through the weekend, while high pressure will build across the OH Valley and middle Atlantic. So carry some low chance POPs in the far east through 09z as drier air filters in with the flow turning W/NW behind the trough's passage. Low temperatures will be mainly in the lower-to-mid-70s, with isolated upper-60s possible in the far north and west. A cold front will dig southeast across the area during the day into the evening, with drier air filtering in behind. With the low off the coast, and the front to the south, Saturday looks to be mostly dry with slight chance PoPs along the far southeast region in the late afternoon.
(Today through Saturday Night ) H500 ridging will persist to the S/W of the state today which will continue to provide NW flow over the region. A cold front will be making progress into the state from the north and is expected to be near the AR/LA border by tonight.
Cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday with additional low end chances for some showers and thunderstorms Saturday night.
1145 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Low pressure and associated cold front continue to slowly exit eastward away from Michigan late this evening. as upstream high pressure builds into the Western Great Lakes region. High pressure builds into the area during the overnight, with this high set to control our weather into at least the start of the weekend. Shower and storm threat end quickly this evening as forcing departs and high pressure begins to exert more influence.
A cold front has managed to pass through most of the forecast area early this morning and will shift south of Missouri and Kentucky by daybreak. This should allow for the infiltration of cooler and drier air through late week. By tonight, clearing skies and light winds will allow for temperatures to drop into the 60 to 65 degree range as dew points fall into the lower 60s as well.
357 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 A trough of low pressure will maintain the risk of some showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. High pressure will then build back into the Great Lakes this weekend, with mainly dry weather outside of a few lingering showers east of Lake Ontario on Saturday. A sharp mid-level trough will be crossing southern Ontario and Quebec today and tonight. However, a surface cold front will move across the region today, and this along with diurnal instability will produce some additional showers and thunderstorms today. By tonight, expect mainly dry weather across Western NY as trough axis shifts eastward into southern Quebec. A mid level trough axis across southern Quebec on Saturday may support a few lingering showers east of Lake Ontario.
340 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Muggy conditions return today as a moist southerly flow strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front. Over the weekend, showers and storms become more isolated and confined to the mountains as high pressure builds into New England.
High pressure will then build back into the Great Lakes this weekend, with mainly dry weather outside of a few lingering showers on Saturday. On Friday, sharp mid-level trough will be crossing southern Ontario and Quebec. Additional showers and some thunderstorms will fill back in mid to late morning and on into the afternoon as the trough and sfc cold front cross the region. This is also where the tail of the mid- level trough will reside at peak heating. Even though an upper level trough will linger nearby through the remainder of the weekend, the lack of moisture will keep shower chances to just slight chance Saturday.
Once convection finally clears our area, evaporatively cooled air will result in a pleasantly cool morning, with lows in the low to mid 60s. Latest deterministic and ensemble runs of the ECMWF and GFS agree this break from the heat will be short lived, as the subtropical upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest begins to build north into the Great Basin leading to 500-mb height rises over southwest KS.