Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mild and quiet weather will continue until a wetter and cooler pattern is ushered in toward the end of this week. These conditions can be attributed to weak high pressure moving across the Southwest.
Zonal flow aloft is currently occurring with a weak trough moving over the area.
228 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2023 Weak upper level troughing is located across the central Plains currently. The overall temperature and wind forecast appears to be on track as most areas should reach at least the lower 60s for high temperatures. Temperatures in the low 20s in lower lying areas to the low 30s over eastern portions of the area are currently forecasted.
152 PM PST Sat Nov 11 2023 Drier, warmer conditions will move in for the remainder of the weekend as an upper level ridge builds in over the region.
233 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2023 - Windy over the higher elevations of the Front Range through tonight. Tonight and into Sunday, zonal flow aloft over Colorado will weaken and a ridge will begin to build in. This will decrease winds along the higher terrain. The ridge will bring warm air advection along with it and highs will jump into the mid 60s on the plains.
Clouds begin to increase late Sunday as the potent upper low approaches.
600 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 * Dry and seasonably warm weather continues through most of the next several days with high pressure over the region * Lows in the 30s, with morning frost possible early in the week. * Daytime temperatures warming into the 60s for much of the upcoming week * Only chance for rain will come with a cold front late this upcoming week Beautiful late fall afternoon ongoing as the Ohio Valley resides under strong high pressure. reading this afternoon should peak in the lower to middle 50s.
The southern and eastern portions of Middle Tennessee are covered in clouds and, similar to last night, these are keeping temperatures 2 to 3 degrees warmer than the previously forecasted.
643 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure building across the Commonwealth will provide a dry and seasonably chilly weekend.
925 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 Clouds will increase overnight, but lows are still expected to drop to at or below freezing roughly along and east of Interstate 69.
726 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure building across the Commonwealth will provide a dry and seasonably chilly weekend.
Drier, warmer conditions will move in for the remainder of the weekend as an upper level ridge builds in over the region.
425 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure building across the Commonwealth will provide a dry and seasonably chilly weekend.
- Dry, mostly clear and much warmer conditions expected starting Sunday and lasting through midweek. A warm front will continue to lift northeast over southern MN tonight into Sunday morning. There may be a bit of a balancing act going on between precip intensity and the low temperatures in our easternmost counties. Current lows are expected to run in the mid-30s, but should some stronger bands in isolated areas develop, lows could be pushed down into the lower 30s due to dynamic cooling. For Sunday, a rather dry cold front will push through that will have little impact other than removing cloud cover from the area and bringing breezy west winds (shifting from southerly) to MN/WI during the day tomorrow.
936 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure builds into the area through Sunday night.
634 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure builds into the area through Sunday night.
620 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2023 - Windy over the higher elevations of the Front Range through tonight. Tonight and into Sunday, zonal flow aloft over Colorado will weaken and a ridge will begin to build in. This will decrease winds along the higher terrain. The ridge will bring warm air advection along with it and highs will jump into the mid 60s on the plains.
936 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 * Dry and seasonably warm weather continues through most of the next several days with high pressure over the region * Lows in the 30s, with morning frost possible early in the week. * Daytime temperatures warming into the 60s for much of the upcoming week * Only chance for rain will come with a cold front late this upcoming week Mid clouds continue to gradually advance into central Indiana this evening. Beautiful late fall afternoon ongoing as the Ohio Valley resides under strong high pressure. reading this afternoon should peak in the lower to middle 50s.
609 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure at the surface will support calm/very light winds this evening and tonight. High pressure centered over Lake Huron today resulted in some diurnal cu using up the remaining moisture trapped under the subsidence inversion. A thermal trough overhead will keep temperatures muted the rest of today and tonight with temps dropping to around 30 again tonight. The high will then hold over the region through Sunday but center itself farther east allowing a more southerly wind and a slight increase in max temps to around 50. The weak cold front will sweep through Sunday night but will be more of a wind shift line with a flip to gusty NW flow.
Current surface analysis places low over east-central Alberta, with trough dropping to the south along and east of the lee side of the Rockies. Upper level analysis places low over northern Minnesota, with westerly flow off to our west, though a few troughs area noted in the flow. Affiliated modest upper trough also makes its way into the area. This should mainly result in an increase in cloud cover, but over far northern areas CAMs continue to show the very modest possibility for a little light rain after midnight, though a little light freezing rain can not be ruled out around the Turtle Mountains area. Sunday will be a windy day over the area as the low pushes east. Quiet weather then expected overnight, though clouds may be on the increase as warmer air starts to move in.
An upper ridge is currently over northern and central Nevada this afternoon. An upper level trough will slowly move east towards the Pacific Northwest. A southwest flow will develop bringing in slightly warmer air for Sunday.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Slightly warmer temps across the region today, especially north of I-20, as clouds have diminished in our northern zones. The low clouds will gradually move out of the region from north to south, but still expecting some high clouds to remain. Should see warmer temps spread areawide, with highs generally in the upper 60s. The aforementioned upper trough over the SW CONUS will start to eject ENE into West Texas.
Looking at early 0Z sounding data, there are some reasons for why this has been so: low-level moisture has rebounded (and has sufficient depth up to about 700mb or 10kft), conditional instability increased with the warmer daytime temps, and the overall flow has weakened such that residence time for towers on the boundary have been longer.
729 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2023 - Windy over the higher elevations of the Front Range through tonight. Tonight and into Sunday, zonal flow aloft over Colorado will weaken and a ridge will begin to build in. This will decrease winds along the higher terrain. The ridge will bring warm air advection along with it and highs will jump into the mid 60s on the plains.
A Pacific weather system will bring a chance of rain later in the new week along with cooler temperatures.
547 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Broad troughing exists across the southwestern CONUS this afternoon with the polar jet along the US/Canada border. The upper trough should be just west of us by Sunday afternoon.
241 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2023 IR depicts ample mid and upper level moisture spilling over a positively oriented ridge across the Northwest. A weak wave to the north and northeast has skirted the Montana state line with minimal, if any, snow impacts the higher elevations. Otherwise, improving skies this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the south with increasing convergence aloft. Slight breezes in these same areas overnight with some upper level clouds still present before becoming less than 10mph for the entire CWA by sunrise Sunday morning as the gradient slackens due to the aforementioned high pressure.
520 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Cooler temperatures and rainy weather will continue for the short term period. Mid and upper level southwesterly flow, courtesy of a trough over the southwestern US, will continue to stream moisture over the cool surface air.
This will maintain the low overcast with periods of drizzle or light rain. Temperatures will remain cool with high temps struggling to reach into the low 70s due to the persistent low clouds and light rain. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s inland to around 60 along the coast.
If this nocturnal event will really keep only to the higher elevations, then our SW Phillips County zone will be the only area impacted by High Winds. Highs in the lower 50s.
A flattened 500mb ridge will remain over central Florida. At the surface, a weak boundary will sink southward across the Florida peninsula as high pressure builds over the southeast U.
940 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions through at least midweek, with temperatures trending from slightly below normal to slightly above normal through the first part of the workweek. Clear skies are on tap for Sunday night, with temps again bottoming out in the lower to mid 30s for most spots.
535 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) A short wave trough over Baja California at press time will pinch off from the westerlies overnight, then will get ejected across northern Mexico Sunday owing to strong height falls off the west coast. In any event, temperatures tonight will range from the mid 30s across northern Lea County NM to the lower 50s along the Rio Grande. Rain chances start to ramp up after daybreak Sunday as deep layer ascent and moisture increase ahead of the upper low and a warm front begins to lift northward across west Texas. The upper low continues to translate east Sunday night and opens up over the Big Bend.
1227 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure building across the Commonwealth will provide a dry and seasonably chilly weekend.
1233 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions through at least midweek, with temperatures trending from slightly below normal to slightly above normal through the first part of the workweek. Clear skies are on tap for Sunday night, with temps again bottoming out in the lower to mid 30s for most spots.
A sfc cold front then treks across the Dakotas Sunday morning ushering in some caa. Westerly gusts to 25 to 35 mph (strongest north of Hwy 212) and decent lapse rates will produce good mixing conditions that could offset the lower level caa. The breeziest conditions are not expected to fully align with the lowest RH, but high grassland fire danger is still forecast. Upper ridging begins to build in Sunday night with WAA under the ridge. - Depth of an upper level trough at the end of the period, and the impacts of pcpn chances and temperatures.
The highest moisture content was south near the surface front while the precipitable water values were 1. Light fog is also anticipated and may be more noticable on the ridge tops and near areas of drizzle. Occasional light rain will continue tonight, but drier mid-level air will begin to move over the area tomorrow as ridging moves across the Central CONUS and winds aloft become westerly to northwesterly.
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the forecast area today with a stationary boundary across north Florida and the northern Gulf of Mexico. Difference will be that high pressure north of the area will build down over the Florida peninsula late in the day and tonight with increasing northeast boundary layer flow.
145 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure will be building across our CWA today leaving plenty of sunshine and light winds in place to close out the weekend. Have backed of high temperatures just a bit today as a result in some of the valleys but mid elevation locations should see a good jump up in temperatures as warmer air arrives aloft.
254 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Key Messages: - Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions expected through Saturday Mid-level heights will gradually build into the region as upstream ridging builds across the Rockies.
355 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure will keep dry weather and seasonable temperatures through the most of the week.
1053 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Broad troughing exists across the southwestern CONUS this afternoon with the polar jet along the US/Canada border. The upper trough should be just west of us by Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures will be even warmer on Sunday due to the transition in the flow as highs will be mainly in the 50s to lower 60s in the valleys. Pockets of low-level wind shear Sunday morning in the Lower Treasure Valley.
1145 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 * Dry and seasonably warm weather continues through most of the next several days with high pressure over the region * Lows in the 30s, with morning frost possible early in the week. * Daytime temperatures warming into the 60s for much of the upcoming week * Only chance for rain will come with a cold front late this upcoming week Mid clouds continue to gradually advance into central Indiana this evening. Beautiful late fall afternoon ongoing as the Ohio Valley resides under strong high pressure. reading this afternoon should peak in the lower to middle 50s.
Cronce (Issued 259 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023) Tonight through Sunday night: High pressure overhead this afternoon will slide eastward tonight and Sunday ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure. The low will pass by to the north on Sunday, dragging a weak cold front through southern Wisconsin in the evening.
Some left over gusts to 20 mph will occur in the higher elevations.
(Today and tonight) High pressure aloft will be the primary influence on our weather today as the storm track remains to our north. This will occur as high pressure gradually loses influence by tonight in response to digging troughing over the eastern Pacific.
1215 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure builds into the area through Sunday night.
1016 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure building across the Commonwealth will provide a dry and seasonably chilly weekend.
300 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Key Message: - Dry --------------------------------------------------------------------- A strong ridge of high pressure from Quebec through the Ohio Valley to Texas will provide the region with a quiet weather day. Winds will be very light today thanks to that ridge overhead, but afternoon dew points in the upper 20s and lower 30s with high temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s will lead to dew point depressions on the order of thirty degrees, fostering drying of surface vegetation and leaf litter. Low temperatures will generally be in the lower and middle 30s, with the usual caveat of cooler readings in low-lying rural locations.
A cooler and wetter weather pattern then arrives mid to late week.
1242 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 Clouds will increase overnight, but lows are still expected to drop to at or below freezing roughly along and east of Interstate 69.
1059 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 Update High pressure slides off to the east tonight allowing southerly return flow to set up.
Sustained wind speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts up to around 25 mph can be expected as the trough moves through. High temperatures will be generally in the 60s today, but a few spots in north central Kansas may reach the low 70s. With high pressure and light winds overnight, trended toward the lower side of model guidance with the overnight lows. Still, most areas will see low temperatures right around freezing, give or take a couple of degrees.
356 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week, leading to dry and mild conditions.
Seasonally mild high temperatures in the lower to middle 60s are expected daily. today, but its ridge axis extends along the entirety of the Ohio River Valley. This will help us be dry and seasonal with highs returning to the lower half of the 60s today as H8 temps start to warm a little from yesterday.
103 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure will keep dry weather and seasonable temperatures through the most of the week.
1052 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Cooler temperatures and rainy weather will continue for the short term period. Mid and upper level southwesterly flow, courtesy of a trough over the southwestern US, will continue to stream moisture over the cool surface air.
1234 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 Aviation High pressure slides off to the east tonight allowing southerly return flow to set up.
1133 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure building across the Commonwealth will provide a dry and seasonably chilly weekend.
1056 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2023 - Windy over the higher elevations of the Front Range through tonight. Tonight and into Sunday, zonal flow aloft over Colorado will weaken and a ridge will begin to build in. This will decrease winds along the higher terrain. The ridge will bring warm air advection along with it and highs will jump into the mid 60s on the plains.
Upper level trough axis will pass quietly across the Ohio River valley region north of us today, while clearing skies give way to a dry November day.
The upper level trough that brought clouds to the area on Saturday will continue to move off to the east today as an upper level ridge builds east into the Plains. Highs will warm into the low to middle 60s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
1059 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) A short wave trough over Baja California at press time will pinch off from the westerlies overnight, then will get ejected across northern Mexico Sunday owing to strong height falls off the west coast. In any event, temperatures tonight will range from the mid 30s across northern Lea County NM to the lower 50s along the Rio Grande. Rain chances start to ramp up after daybreak Sunday as deep layer ascent and moisture increase ahead of the upper low and a warm front begins to lift northward across west Texas. The upper low continues to translate east Sunday night and opens up over the Big Bend.
Area of low pressure over northern Alberta will lead to an increasing pressure gradient across the Upper Midwest. There is high agreement amongst the various model solutions on forecast highs for today of temperatures nearly 10 degrees above normal, but have erred towards the warmer side of guidance values with clear skies, dry atmosphere and southwest winds.
Winds will turn more northwesterly Monday ahead of another area of high pressure that will move across the area Monday night. High temps may be a few degrees warmer than today, around 60 for most areas.
Otherwise, expect light north winds to persist at the surface and an upper-level low pressure system to begin taking shape to our west across Texas heading into tomorrow. /NF/ Hi-res guidance continues to show a low pressure system near the TX Gulf Coast around Monday afternoon.
We'll remain under the influence of transient ridging aloft today into tonight, resulting in another day of light winds but more sunshine and warmer temperatures than yesterday, with highs in the mid 60's area wide.
4) Our next chance for precipitation arrives with a cold front later this week. Current conditions: Water vapor imagery this morning highlights an upper level low pushing northeast out of northern MN and into Ontario. The next chance for precipitation arrives with a cold front later this week.
615 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure will build in from the west today, crest over the area tonight, then exit across the Maritimes Monday.
240 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2023 Today: A chinook cold frontal passage overnight will continue to influence the area with gusty winds today. The High Wind Warning will remain in place there for now, but a gradual decline in intensity is likely within the next several hours.
414 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2023 - Decreasing winds over the higher mountains today. Both today's highs and tonight's lows should be a couple degrees warmer, in line with the current forecast. A ridge pattern aloft prevail across northeastern Colorado Monday.
Area of low pressure over northern Alberta will lead to an increasing pressure gradient across the Upper Midwest. There is high agreement amongst the various model solutions on forecast highs for today of temperatures nearly 10 degrees above normal, but have erred towards the warmer side of guidance values with clear skies, dry atmosphere and southwest winds. A cold front associated with a disturbance late week is expected to move through the region, but a Chinook pattern quickly develops east of the Rockies limiting the impact of the cooler air.
Upper level flow will become northwesterly today as a ridge builds over the central Plains. As the tail end of the front moves closer to the forecast area, surface winds will pickup from the south to southwest today, ushering in warmer weather. Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, in the low to mid 60s. Even though the cold front will begin to move into northern portions of the forecast area tonight, it will begin to washout with little to no CAA expected. So as the upper level ridge slides east into the central CONUS, flow at the surface will pickup from the south with temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal through mid week. In the meantime, a cutoff upper level low over the Baja Peninsula will slowly meander east across the Gulf Coast region.
947 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 High pressure builds into the area through tonight, sliding offshore on Monday. A cold frontal passage Monday night will give way to high pressure through the middle of the week.
Otherwise, pretty chilly temps out there early this morning with readings in the low to mid 20s for most areas. Warmer air aloft is overspreading the region and by 12Z, 850mb temps should be around +5C to +10C over the CWA. Later this morning, a cold front will quickly move east across the area and switch winds to a westerly direction, eventually becoming breezy and gusty. Slightly cooler air behind the front (850mb temps +4C to +6C), but with ample mixing and the mild air mass, should still see temps ranging from the mid 50s to perhaps as high as the low 60s.
Winds will slowly diminish tonight behind a weak cold frontal passage. Skies are expected to remain clear through Monday as high pressure builds into the area.
616 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2023 Key messages: 1) Dry and mild again today Detailed discussion: Weak westerly upper flow will continue across srn Colorado today, then ridge builds slightly this evening and overnight with flow turning more swly by Monday morning.
This precipitation will be north of HWY-2 in the morning hours, and is expected to fall as rain but some CAMs are calling for freezing rain. Key Messages: 1) Ridging aloft leaves little opportunity for impactful weather. With a ridge in place controlling our weather, little looks to be in the forecast except for warming temperatures. With temperatures in the 40s during the day and 20s at night, concerns would be highest for impacts should precipitation fall in the overnight hours when it is below freezing.
546 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 (Today and tonight) Upper level trough over Baja is expected to move east across West Central Texas Monday.
401 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2023 Key messages: 1) Dry and mild again today Detailed discussion: Weak westerly upper flow will continue across srn Colorado today, then ridge builds slightly this evening and overnight with flow turning more swly by Monday morning.
(Today and tonight) Upper level trough over Baja is expected to move east across West Central Texas Monday.