Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure establishes itself over the region Wednesday into the weekend. Upper trough axis to the west will continue to weaken tonight, as weak frontal boundary over the area dissipates. Upper ridge strengthens over the western Atlantic building westward across the area Wed. Hot and humid with highs climbing into the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s to low 90s for the beaches. Upper ridging over the western Atlantic builds westward into the region for the mid to late week period.
1101 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Water vapor imagery, 12z TAE sounding, and surface imagery all show that the drier low/mid-level airmass continues to gradually press southward into the forecast area as northerly mid-level flow increases behind the exiting upper trough. (Today and tonight) A drier mid-level airmass will continue to gradually press southward today as the southwesterly flow associated with the retreating upper trough is replaced by the northerly flow of the upper ridge building in its place. High temperatures will push back towards the mid 90s for the northern and western portions of the forecast area with the upper ridge building into the area.
Strong high pressure will help temperatures warm over what was observed yesterday, with widespread mid 90s to low 100s.
1226 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Good morning, Middle Tennessee! It's pretty muggy out this morning as dew point temperatures are already in the the 70s with air temperatures in the low 80s. Current surface analysis shows a high pressure center just to our southeast with no boundaries nearby, so this will be something to re-evaluate come forecast time with the latest model guidance.
1135 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 07z surface analysis had trough from eastern MT into western NE. Upper support tentatively weak, but given flow around upper ridge there will certainly be a wiggle in there somewhere.
Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1229 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (Today through Wednesday) A broad upper ridge covers much of the SW CONUS, but the center remains concentrated over Central NM with H5 heights at around 600 decameters.
234 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Upper ridge remains over the region this afternoon with temperatures mainly in the 90s. Dewpoints to the east of the trough are around 71F, and generally from 50-60F to the west of the trough. Upper support is tentatively weak, however a weak disturbance in the flow around the upper ridge may be enough to overcome the inversion, allowing thunderstorms to develop. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the lower to mid 90s over northeastern Wyoming to around 100 degrees over parts of western South Dakota.
319 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the plains and desert sw with a trough in the Pacific NW and a trough in the eastern U.
The upper-level high pressure that has dominated our weather pattern remains near stationary near the Four Corners. Heat Advisories remain in effect for portions of the higher elevations, Eddy & Mitchell Counties, and along portions of the Rio Grande through early this evening with the continued heat. Temperatures cool into the 70s across the lower elevations and 60s across the higher elevations tonight. A weak disturbance passes well north of the region tomorrow which weakens the ridge enough to drop some locations a degree or two during the afternoon.
(Through Wednesday) Upper trough will continue to weaken over the next 24 hours. However, the region will remain in a bit of a col between ridges to the east and west, with the trough to the north and an upper low to the south over the central/southern Gulf. Otherwise, the night will be mostly fair with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. However, the highest PoPs (30-40%) will remain across the SE Big Bend.
(This evening through Wednesday) A 599 dam mid-level ridge centered across New Mexico (ABQ actually observed 599 dam at 500 mb on their 12Z upper air data) will continue to influence the Southern Plains.
1001 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Good morning, Middle Tennessee! It's pretty muggy out this morning as dew point temperatures are already in the the 70s with air temperatures in the low 80s. Current surface analysis shows a high pressure center just to our southeast with no boundaries nearby, so this will be something to re-evaluate come forecast time with the latest model guidance.
Even though freezing level is high, the high Hail CAPES is producing reports of dime to penny size hail.
Winds are gusting 20 to 40 mph again, depending on where you are located, with the highest gusts occurring in northwest and southwest Montana.
1251 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Current global scale pattern, as indicated on satellite, still shows a strong ridge over the intermountain west and a decent trough over the Hudson Bay region south into the Eastern Great Lakes. This orientation provides ample WAA under the ridge which will be firmly in place over the region. At this point, South Central and Southeast Kansas will have the higher Tds today and into Wednesday. Again, the main issue will be the potential for a mid level trough to come through with some showers and thunderstorms which would keep heat indices in check across the region.
108 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Mainly dry but hazy conditions are expected through Tuesday with weak high pressure in control.
Low pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast and high pressure near the Four-Corners region will maintain a dry southwest flow into the Sierra and western NV.
Forecast remains on track with upper level troughing still expected to lift out allowing low level ridge axis to move north over the next few days. For the rest of the week we'll our more typical summertime east to southeast flow (Regime 2/6) setup as the low level ridge axis moves north of the region with abundant moisture, precipitable water expected to be around or greater than 2 inches, across the area. This flow will keep the west coast sea breeze closer to the Highway 41 corridor along the Nature Coast and near the Interstate 75 from Tampa Bay southward.
133 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Slightly warmer today then cooler for the remainder of the week with near to slightly below seasonal normal temperatures. Warmest day today with highest heights overhead will allow for afternoon temperatures to be slightly warmer than yesterday.
141 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 A mid-upper level short wave trough exits the area later today. Mid-upper level ridging builds toward the area through the work week, only to retreat westward again this weekend. Plenty of July sunshine will allow for afternoon temperatures to reach the low to mid 90s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 70s highest elevations on Wednesday. Dewpoints in the lower 70s and the heat expected will allow for heat index values to reach the triple digits Wednesday afternoon.
635 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (The rest of this afternoon and Tonight) A hot summertime afternoon is unfolding across the region today as mid and upper level ridging continues to expand and shift eastward over the Plains. Current temperatures range from the lower to mid 90s and a few more degrees of warming is expected through the rest of the afternoon. Otherwise, it will be another hot day as the ridge continues to build over the region. For the rest of the week, the upper ridge will dominate the pattern through the weekend.
A weak cold front will still swing through the area tonight, but while highs are slightly lower tomorrow, will still climb into the low to mid 90s. Surface-based CAPE was 500-1500 j/kg and Bulk Effective Shear was 35-45 kt at the highest. A second cold front was forecast to move SE through the area this evening. Cold front will exit the area in the morning. It will be cooler with highs in the 80s to 90s.
737 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (Through Wednesday) Upper trough will continue to weaken over the next 24 hours. However, the region will remain in a bit of a col between ridges to the east and west, with the trough to the north and an upper low to the south over the central/southern Gulf. Otherwise, the night will be mostly fair with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. However, the highest PoPs (30-40%) will remain across the SE Big Bend.
It will be a muggy and warm night with lows only dropping into the 70 to 74 degree range in most locations given the low level moisture convergence in place south of that boundary.
404 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 At 500mb and 700mb, a trough is situated over Quebec/Hudson Bay to the eastern Great Lakes and mid eastern seaboard while a ridge covers the Desert Southwest to Saskatchewan/Manitoba (central Canada). There is a trough from British Columbia to the Pacific Northwest. A subtle wave has scooted off of the western trough decreasing the ridge and tracking through the Northern Plains. | Highlights: 1) Hot - Temps around 100 degrees 2) Slight chance for storms in NC KS tonight Challenges: Dewpoints and associated heat indices Change: Slight reduction in time and coverage for slight chances tonight The wave that has helped undercut the ridge will track southeast to the Upper Mississippi River Valley this evening into early Wednesday.
Temperatures for interior valleys will be about normal the next couple of days as NW California remains sandwiched between an upper trough over the northeast Pacific and a massive ridge aloft centered over the Desert Southwest. Deeper troughing extending southward from the Gulf of Alaska toward the end of the week and over the weekend should yield slightly below normal temperatures for the interior valleys. Greatest uncertainty is with another reinforcing trough from the Gulf of Alaska. Otherwise, onshore winds along with a shallow marine airmass will keep coastal areas seasonably cooler (lower to mid 60s). Winds will subside later this evening as the low-level stabilize, with a southerly wind reversal possibly taking place in the vicinity of KCEC.
Weak upper level troughing/zonal flow will persist through the forecast period.
High pressure establishes itself over the region Wednesday into the weekend. Upper ridge strengthens over the western Atlantic building westward across the area Wed. Hot and humid with highs climbing into the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s to low 90s for the beaches. Upper ridging over the western Atlantic builds westward into the region for the mid to late week period.
Otherwise a quiet weather evening with just some thin cirrus floating by overhead on the western edge of the Atlantic ridge. Upper trough across the region will slowly weaken as both the upper ridge over the western Atlantic and across the southwestern U. Models generally redevelop eastern CONUS trough by the weekend along the east side of main ridge over the south-central CONUS. Drier air continues to mix down to the surface and dewpoints are on the low side, especially for summertime.
A few isolated showers have developed along the I-20 corridor where low level WV shows a very weak shear zone acting on the surface lee trof. Upper trough across the region will slowly weaken as both the upper ridge over the western Atlantic and across the southwestern U. Models generally redevelop eastern CONUS trough by the weekend along the east side of main ridge over the south-central CONUS. Drier air continues to mix down to the surface and dewpoints are on the low side, especially for summertime.
Issued by National Weather Service Eureka CA 333 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2023 A low pressure system off the coast of Vancouver Island and a Four Corners high are the major synoptic features impacting southern Oregon and Northern California this week. Upper level southwest flow has transitioned into zonal flow aloft as the trough weakened today.
The silver state remain between a the four corner high to the S and a trough off to the N. These winds coupled with the low RH will create elevated to critical fire weather conditions so use caution when outdoors as any errant spark or heat source can cause a wildfire.
627 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) Upper level high pressure centered over northern New Mexico this afternoon and will make a slight shift westward and possibly a slight weakening.
Low temperatures will fall into the low 70s. Only small changes can occur and that's to warm things a bit each day as strong radiation works to warm the lower levels. Highs tomorrow will be a tad warmer, 95-98 expected. Overall, moisture is on the lower side which is keeping humidity in check some.
943 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 As of 9:30 PM CDT, temperatures remain in the mid-to-upper 80s, milder again compared to last night with temperature minimums expected in the low-to-mid 70s being milder also (as a result of higher dew points). /16/ (This evening through Wednesday Night) Upper ridging, which will remain centered just east of the Four Corners Region over the next couple days, will continue to influence the weather in our neck of the woods. With the extent of the ridge expanding as far east as the Lower Mississippi Valley, expect strong subsidence to continue, resulting in dry conditions, partly cloudy skies, and above normal afternoon temperatures across our region.
617 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (This afternoon through Wednesday) Trough begins to pull away to the NE, while the ridge out west begins to build slightly east. Increasing isoheights means a slightly warmer trend in the short term. Highs should reach the low to mid-90s today under mostly clear skies. Temperatures overnight a tad higher as warm air advection pulls in slightly warmer and moist air from the east. Tomorrow, should be a a bit warmer as indicated by increasing low-level thicknesses.
646 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 At 500mb and 700mb, a trough is situated over Quebec/Hudson Bay to the eastern Great Lakes and mid eastern seaboard while a ridge covers the Desert Southwest to Saskatchewan/Manitoba (central Canada). There is a trough from British Columbia to the Pacific Northwest. A subtle wave has scooted off of the western trough decreasing the ridge and tracking through the Northern Plains. | Highlights: 1) Hot - Temps around 100 degrees 2) Slight chance for storms in NC KS tonight Challenges: Dewpoints and associated heat indices Change: Slight reduction in time and coverage for slight chances tonight The wave that has helped undercut the ridge will track southeast to the Upper Mississippi River Valley this evening into early Wednesday.
(Now through Wednesday) Remnant weakness aloft will remain over the region while an upper ridge begins to extend from the large persistent upper high centered over New Mexico eastward across the Mississippi Valley. One interesting feature is a weak inverted upper trough from 400-250mb forming over the north central Gulf of Mexico late tonight that will nose northeastward over the forecast area on Wednesday. Lows tonight are forecast to range from around 70 degrees to the lower 70s over inland communities and in the mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast and beaches. High temperatures on Wednesday will continue to range in the lower to mid 90s across our region, with maximum heat index values generally ranging between 97-102 degrees.
Adjusted overnight PoPs ever so slightly with the evening update but otherwise, the benign forecast is on track as the ridge begins to build in and amplify this week. With the ridge expansion into the region, warmer temperatures and clearer skies should prevail for the rest of the week.
Hot weather will continue this week with strong high pressure over the Southwest. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Today was another exceptionally hot day in the valleys, mountains and deserts, and a much cooler and generally cloudy day at the San Diego County beaches.
Another round of afternoon storms are expected Wednesday afternoon, with the highest chances over the interior and around southwest Florida.
507 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Upper ridge remains over the region this afternoon with temperatures mainly in the 90s. Dewpoints to the east of the trough are around 71F, and generally from 50-60F to the west of the trough. Upper support is tentatively weak, however a weak disturbance in the flow around the upper ridge may be enough to overcome the inversion, allowing thunderstorms to develop. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the lower to mid 90s over northeastern Wyoming to around 100 degrees over parts of western South Dakota.
552 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 As expected, showers and thunderstorms have fired off the higher terrain across eastern Utah and western Colorado. Tomorrow will be very similar to today, with very little change in the placement of the center of the high to our south. Temperatures will continue to run 5-10 degrees above normal for late July, meaning low 100s for the lower desert valleys, and upper 60s to low 70s for the mountain towns. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the end of the week as high pressure remains anchored just to the south of the forecast area.
(The rest of tonight) Current forecast for tonight is on track with temperatures expected to run a little warmer than last night across much of the area as the southerly wind persists. Otherwise, it will be another hot day as the ridge continues to build over the region. For the rest of the week, the upper ridge will dominate the pattern through the weekend.
646 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Upper ridging, which will remain centered just east of the Four Corners Region over the next couple days, will continue to influence the weather in our neck of the woods. With the extent of the ridge expanding as far east as the Lower Mississippi Valley, expect strong subsidence to continue, resulting in dry conditions, partly cloudy skies, and above normal afternoon temperatures across our region.
645 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The center of a broad, but potent 598-600 decameter H5 subtropical ridge will be parked over NM through the short-term period.
313 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 As expected, showers and thunderstorms have fired off the higher terrain across eastern Utah and western Colorado. Tomorrow will be very similar to today, with very little change in the placement of the center of the high to our south. Temperatures will continue to run 5-10 degrees above normal for late July, meaning low 100s for the lower desert valleys, and upper 60s to low 70s for the mountain towns. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the end of the week as high pressure remains anchored just to the south of the forecast area.
628 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) A 599 dam mid-level ridge centered across New Mexico (ABQ actually observed 599 dam at 500 mb on their 12Z upper air data) will continue to influence the Southern Plains.
626 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 With the ridge expansion into the region, warmer temperatures and clearer skies should prevail for the rest of the week.
The high clouds have had an initial impact on where the first convection was developing, but most places should still be able to reach convective temps late this afternoon. It'll be hard to pin down the location of the showers/storms, as one area of convection could continue to shift east across the plains through early evening, while additional showers/storms could develop over the high country and spill onto the adjacent I-25 Corridor and plains. We'll still be hot with most of the plains reaching the mid 90s and a few upper 90s over the lowest elevations.
The CWA is becoming more situated on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge that is still ever present over the Desert SW. At the surface, high pressure will dominate, thus a more typical summer day is in store for North and Central GA.
A cluster of thunderstorms that originated from the southwest mainland made a beeline for the Lower Keys. As it passed through the Lower Keys wind gusts were initially around 45 mph. The convection did have a cooling effect for the Lower Keys with current temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.
136 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2023 07z surface analyst had a trough from central ND into central NE. Thursday through Wednesday, southern CONUS upper ridge will dominate with CWA on the northern edge.
High pressure establishes itself over the region Wednesday into the weekend. Upper ridge strengthens over the western Atlantic building westward across the area Wed. Hot and humid with highs climbing into the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s to low 90s for the beaches.
839 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Hot weather will continue this week under strong high pressure aloft.
Ridging will still be in place today but will be squashed just a bit. For tomorrow, the temperatures sine wave will be at the trough as a weak back door cold front sags into the area, bring some cooling mainly East of the Divide, but only a few degrees.
/Issued 1254 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023/ /Through Thursday/ Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist through the short- term period as the region remains under the influence of a mid- level ridge centered over New Mexico. By the latter half of Thursday, an inverted mid-level trough will begin to push overhead Northern Mexico and South Texas from the Gulf of Mexico. The mid-level ridge will remain the predominate feature locally and keep the stagnant weather pattern in-place through the weekend.
434 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023 High pressure will broadly ridge into the region from offshore through this weekend. High pressure will broadly ridge in from offshore today, with light southerly flow continuing. Temperatures will be slow to cool, but will eventually get into the low to mid 70s by morning, with coastal areas remaining in the upper 70s to around 80. Upper ridging over the western Atlantic builds westward into the region for the mid to late week period.
1039 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) A 599 dam mid-level ridge centered across New Mexico (ABQ actually observed 599 dam at 500 mb on their 12Z upper air data) will continue to influence the Southern Plains.
1255 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023 Hot high pressure will build over the region through the rest of the week. RH recovery tonight will result in warmer temps tonight with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The pair of highs will build toward one another through Wed night with weak troughiness associated with the aforementioned s/w trough generally moving between them. At the surface, southerly flow will increase through Wed night as the Bermuda high ridges westward into the Carolinas. Highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s are expected.
A warm front stretched across northern Minnesota from northwest to southeast this afternoon. The upper level ridge axis remains to our west for Wednesday into Thursday and will help boost temperatures into the 80s and 90s with dewpoints in the 60s. Zonal flow aloft Thursday will carry low pressure into far northwestern Ontario with a cold front approaching the Northland.
1231 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 (The rest of tonight) Current forecast for tonight is on track with temperatures expected to run a little warmer than last night across much of the area as the southerly wind persists.
1226 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The center of a broad, but potent 598-600 decameter H5 subtropical ridge will be parked over NM through the short-term period.
1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 As of 9:30 PM CDT, temperatures remain in the mid-to-upper 80s, milder again compared to last night with temperature minimums expected in the low-to-mid 70s being milder also (as a result of higher dew points). /16/ (This evening through Wednesday Night) Upper ridging, which will remain centered just east of the Four Corners Region over the next couple days, will continue to influence the weather in our neck of the woods. With the extent of the ridge expanding as far east as the Lower Mississippi Valley, expect strong subsidence to continue, resulting in dry conditions, partly cloudy skies, and above normal afternoon temperatures across our region.