Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
647 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 (Today through Sunday Night ) The pattern continues with an upper trough over the northern U. S, southwest flow aloft over much of central and eastern sections, and an upper high over the Gulf of Mexico. By Sunday night, the upper trough will move into the Plains, and southwest flow will continue over the south and east sections. The cold front continues a slow movement through the state, and is currently from Mena to Batesville. Highs today will be in the mid 50s north to lower 80s south and cooler Sunday with highs in the mid 40s to mid 70s. Lows tonight will be in the lower 40s to mid 60s and cooler Sunday night in the lower 30s to mid 40s.
234 AM PDT Sat Oct 28 2023 Much cooler conditions settle into the region this weekend courtesy of a backdoor cold front passage.
Trough continues to deepen this morning over the Great Basin Region, as energy and cold air drops southward from the northern Rockies.
Increased cloud cover will bring lows tonight in the lower to mid teens.
- The cold front arrives Gusty northwesterly winds have arrived and will usher in cooler temperatures into the region today. The gusty winds however will make it feel quite chilly with wind chills in the low 40s. Lows tonight into Sunday will be near freezing along the US 10 corridor and in the upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere. A deepening trough will extend across the upper midwest southward across the intermountain west. That trough will move eastward tonight into tomorrow.
348 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A cold front turns stationary and settles across the lower Ohio Valley this evening.
1245 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 (Today through Sunday) Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain on the western periphery of 500 mb high pressure that will remain centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. This will produce dry weather for the inland portion of the BRO CWFA, although some isolated to even scattered convection will be possible over the lower Texas coastal waters where fluctuating tropical moisture will be best.
This area has also had a couple of nights dipping below freezing anyway.
357 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 Following the passage of a cold front, much cooler temperatures have filtered into the area.
A strong cold front is making its way slowly across the Midsouth and will eventually usher in an early season Arctic airmass across the region.
155 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A cold front will slowly move southeast to a position south of the Ohio River by tonight. A wave of low pressure will then ripple northeast along this frontal boundary on Sunday.
A deep southwest flow of moist air will override a shallow cool air mass north of a stalled cold front over Tennessee and Arkansas. 7 inches will be over the lower Ohio Valley this evening. The storm total rainfall will be highest along an axis from southeast Missouri up the lower Ohio River Valley. The highest potential of any localized flooding issues will be through tonight, when rainfall rates could be locally up to one half inch per hour.
Made an update to cloud cover and temperatures over the next several hours to represent more clearing across our S WV and SW VA zones and resultant slightly warmer temperatures than originally progged. Mass response associated with a rather wide shared energy wind field overhead is yielding some warm advection and resultant showers in the warm sector head of the cold front this afternoon. The northern branch of the northern stream comes dominant by Sunday afternoon as cold high pressure begins to work down into the Southern Plains yielding weak cyclogenesis along the Ohio Valley. This yields unseasonably mild temperatures for this afternoon and overnight, and slightly cooler but still unseasonably mild temperatures for Sunday.
246 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A series of low pressure systems will ride northeast along a cold front stalled out across the Ohio River Valley tonight through Sunday night, bringing periods of rain to the region.
This will keep any rain chances, cooler air, and more extensive low cloud cover to our west.
1202 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 (Today through Sunday) Alabama will remain under the influence of a strong upper ridge. The ridge will hold though the weekend as an equally strong upper trough tracks slowly towards the Southeast United States. The ridge will result in minimal cloud cover, no rain, and afternoon temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal.
(Rest of today through Sunday) Surface boundary has already entered northwest Middle Tennessee, as evidenced by a wind shift and cooler temperatures than the rest of the mid state.
A reinforcing cold front will move through tonight, which will back the winds toward the north. Above the cold front, south to southwest flow at 850 to 700 mb associated with a positively- tilted longwave trough will allow for continued warm air advection. The continued cold air advection from the northerly winds will allow temperatures to drop to or below freezing across northwest/west central Oklahoma by late tonight. The warm layer aloft (temperatures above freezing) will allow for the melting of hydrometeors before they refreeze near the surface. As a result, a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet is likely where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect (where minor travel impacts may occur).
311 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 Another period of rain returns tonight and continues at times through Sunday night as a low pressure system passes by the area.
/29 (Now through Sunday) A large positively tilted upper trof over the western CONUS advances into the much of the central states through Sunday while an upper ridge over the Gulf and the southeastern states shifts a bit eastward. Lows tonight range from the mid to upper 50s inland to the lower/mid 60s at the coast. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower to mid 80s.
especially with ground temperatures still above freezing.
Cold and breezy weather will dominate the first half of the upcoming week before high pressure builds and warmth returns. The much anticipated cold front is still on track to bring the coldest temperatures of the season so far.
210 PM MDT Sat Oct 28 2023 Key messages: - Cold continues tonight and Sunday - Trending warmer and mainly dry this week Bands of light snow/flurries continue to decrease in coverage and intensity this afternoon. An upper trough extending from Hudson Bay is crossing the forecast area this afternoon as indicated by subsidence behind the trough axis clearing clouds from northwest to southeast. Temperatures on Sunday will continue to be much cooler than average and a tightening of the surface pressure gradient will lead to breezy/windy conditions, especially on the plains to the east of the Black Hills.
Looking at current satellite imagery, there is a weak trough extending into the Southeast Highlands with northerly, breezy flow over our area with high pressure just off the Pacific coast.
Both the HRRR and RAP keep the low stratus in place into Sunday morning, which could delay clearing from the current forecast.
1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 (Today through Sunday Night ) The pattern continues with an upper trough over the northern U. S, southwest flow aloft over much of central and eastern sections, and an upper high over the Gulf of Mexico. By Sunday night, the upper trough will move into the Plains, and southwest flow will continue over the south and east sections. The cold front continues a slow movement through the state, and is currently from Mena to Batesville. Highs today will be in the mid 50s north to lower 80s south and cooler Sunday with highs in the mid 40s to mid 70s. Lows tonight will be in the lower 40s to mid 60s and cooler Sunday night in the lower 30s to mid 40s.
1218 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 (Rest of today through Sunday) Surface boundary has already entered northwest Middle Tennessee, as evidenced by a wind shift and cooler temperatures than the rest of the mid state.
1156 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A quasi-stationary cold front extends from near Union City, TN, to near Blytheville, AR into central Arkansas. A cold front will remain stalled along the I-40 corridor today.
The decreasing trend continues through the afternoon as progressive high pressure brings northerly flow and drier low level air into the region. The cold front has cleared the area to the east with temperatures now quickly tumbling toward an eventual low in the 40s this morning. Drying northerly flow and weak subsidence via surface ridging building in will then bring some breaks in the clouds by the afternoon but temps struggle to break out of the upper 40s/lower 50s for most locations. This occurs as moisture transport ramps up within the low-level southwesterly flow with some contribution from a western Gulf air mass. Steady height falls then commence Sunday night as a Canadian trough begins to move in.
Mass response associated with a rather wide shared energy wind field overhead is yielding some warm advection and resultant showers in the warm sector head of the cold front this afternoon. The northern branch of the northern stream comes dominant by Sunday afternoon as cold high pressure begins to work down into the Southern Plains yielding weak cyclogenesis along the Ohio Valley. This yields unseasonably mild temperatures for this afternoon and overnight, and slightly cooler but still unseasonably mild temperatures for Sunday.
105 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 Strong high pressure will persist over the forecast area into this weekend, generating above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
Mass response associated with a rather wide shared energy wind field overhead is yielding some warm advection and resultant showers in the warm sector head of the cold front this afternoon. The northern branch of the northern stream comes dominant by Sunday afternoon as cold high pressure begins to work down into the Southern Plains yielding weak cyclogenesis along the Ohio Valley. This yields unseasonably mild temperatures for this afternoon and overnight, and slightly cooler but still unseasonably mild temperatures for Sunday. A wave of low pressure will ride up along the boundary and be the one responsible for the boundary wobbling about.
243 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday) High pressure will dominate the short term forecast period where warmer than average temperatures and dry conditions are anticipated. With high pressure centered over central Georgia, southeasterly flow will usher in lower level moisture form the Atlantic and produce a cumulus field that will last through the afternoon. Overnight lows in the 50s will also be warmer than average, especially across north Georgia where scattered high cloud coverage is anticipated. As the center of high pressure shifts eastward Sunday as the cold front over central CONUS advances eastward, winds will become more southwesterly. Similar benign weather conditions are anticipated Sunday with maximum temperatures trending even warmer into the mid 80s. Sunday evening, cloud coverage will increase from the northwest as the approaching cold front heads eastward.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Saturday night and Sunday Deep South Texas will remain on the western edge of an upper level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Sunday night rain chances increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
Southwest flow ahead of positive tilt longwave trough over the Great Basin will keep a moist and at least slightly unstable airmass above the cold air tonight, with period of showers and some embedded thunder continuing. (Tomorrow through Saturday) Periods of rain and embedded thunder continue through much of Sunday into Sunday night with the trough axis remaining to the west. With sfc temps remaining at least a couple of degrees above freezing no travel issues are expected. May also be a brief window for freezing rain in higher terrain of NW AR before precip ends Sunday evening.
This short blend should handle the movement and timing of the cold front among the best of the given options, although would not be surprised if it ends up being late by a couple/few hours. Surface temperatures will then define the extent of light freezing rain. Confidence remains high in a period of freezing temperatures during the rainfall in the current Winter Weather Advisory area.
Conditions remain cold and dry as the upper-level trough continues to move southeasterly, with only a minimal chance for snow showers to develop over the mountains of Central Montana later this evening. - Pierce 1150 AM MDT Sat Oct 28 2023 (28/18Z TAF Period) Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the area today as warmer and drier air works into the area.
(This evening through Sunday Night) A cold front currently looms over the northern half of the state this afternoon, roughly half way between Dallas and College Station. The mid/upper level trough over the Great Basin should dig into the Four Corners on Sunday, finally pushing the cold front into SE Texas. 6" PWs aloft and support from the broader upper trough. Gusty northerly winds behind the front should usher in cooler conditions in the days following, with Sunday's lows progged in the 40s/50s.
The usual cold areas, aka Polebridge and Butte, will lower to the single digits to below zero Sunday morning.
Only slight chance pops warranted on Sunday and Sunday night after that wave on the front goes by, but mostly cloudy skies lingering with highs Sunday stuck in the 40s and lows Sunday night dipping to near freezing.
A low stratus deck kept much of the temperatures near or above freezing early this morning. Discussion: High pressure is expected to continue to move into the area today. Temperatures have trended cooler with recent runs of guidance for today. Most guidance has been slow to pick up on the low cloud deck tonight.
103 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 The mid-morning sfc analysis indicates that our cold front has become nearly stationary from just W of a DEQ, to OSA, to JDD and TRL line as of 15Z, with as much as a 10 degree difference in temperature within a 30-40NM distance to the W of the front.
Meanwhile, a rather complicated deep layered trough stretches across the eastern Bahamas and greater Antilles. A fairly tight pressure gradient remains between the high to our north and the trough to the southeast and is driving fresh east northeasterly breezes. With the anticyclone still dominant, dry air and stable conditions prevail. Short Term Update - Deep layered ridging will maintain its dominance across the area through the overnight period. This is despite a portion of the trough aloft to the southeast working its way westward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A tight pressure gradient between a ridge near the Carolinas and troughing across the greater Antilles will maintain fresh east northeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
801 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 Strong high pressure will persist over the forecast area into this weekend, generating above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
941 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A cold front turns stationary and settles across the lower Ohio Valley this evening.
952 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A series of low pressure systems will ride northeast along a cold front stalled out across the Ohio River Valley tonight through Sunday night, bringing periods of rain to the region.
(This afternoon through Sunday) High pressure will dominate the short term forecast period where warmer than average temperatures and dry conditions are anticipated. With high pressure centered over central Georgia, southeasterly flow will usher in lower level moisture form the Atlantic and produce a cumulus field that will last through the afternoon. Overnight lows in the 50s will also be warmer than average, especially across north Georgia where scattered high cloud coverage is anticipated. As the center of high pressure shifts eastward Sunday as the cold front over central CONUS advances eastward, winds will become more southwesterly. Similar benign weather conditions are anticipated Sunday with maximum temperatures trending even warmer into the mid 80s. Sunday evening, cloud coverage will increase from the northwest as the approaching cold front heads eastward.
552 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 Following the passage of a cold front, much cooler temperatures have filtered into the area.
652 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A strong cold front is making its way slowly across the Midsouth and will eventually usher in an early season Arctic airmass across the region.
536 PM MDT Sat Oct 28 2023 Key messages: - Cold continues tonight and Sunday - Trending warmer and mainly dry this week Bands of light snow/flurries continue to decrease in coverage and intensity this afternoon. An upper trough extending from Hudson Bay is crossing the forecast area this afternoon as indicated by subsidence behind the trough axis clearing clouds from northwest to southeast. Temperatures on Sunday will continue to be much cooler than average and a tightening of the surface pressure gradient will lead to breezy/windy conditions, especially on the plains to the east of the Black Hills.
746 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 Another period of rain returns tonight and continues at times through Sunday night as a low pressure system passes by the area.
655 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A cold front turns stationary and settles across the lower Ohio Valley this evening.
901 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A cold front currently draped along the I-40 corridor will remain nearly stationary through Sunday afternoon, allowing for showers to persist north of the boundary. By Sunday evening, an approaching upper level trough will provide enough energy to push the stalled front into Mississippi.
626 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 (Rest of today through Sunday) Surface boundary has already entered northwest Middle Tennessee, as evidenced by a wind shift and cooler temperatures than the rest of the mid state.
The exception was over our far northwest areas where a cold front had dropped temps into the 60s. The cold front will stay northwest of Nashville. Sunday will bring a good deal of clouds as the cold front continues to ooze slowly southeastward.
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a positively tilted longwave trough over the Great Basin will keep a moist environment in place into the day tomorrow. Elsewhere, a raw mid Fall night is in store across a good chunk of the forecast area with temperatures falling into the low 40s and upper 30s amid the scattered showers/storms. Bowlan (Tomorrow through Saturday) Periods of rain and embedded thunder continue through much of Sunday into Sunday night with the trough axis remaining to the west. With sfc temps remaining at least a couple of degrees above freezing no travel issues are expected. May also be a brief window for freezing rain in higher terrain of NW AR before precip ends Sunday evening.
634 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Saturday night and Sunday Deep South Texas will remain on the western edge of an upper level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Sunday night rain chances increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
816 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 A series of low pressure systems will ride northeast along a cold front stalled out across the Ohio River Valley tonight through Sunday night, bringing periods of rain to the region.
741 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023 High pressure remains over the region this evening with dry and slightly above-normal temperatures overnight. High pressure over the southeastern U. Winds then turn more northerly and increase to advisory levels mid-week behind a cold front.
Locally, high pressure continues to move into the area, bringing with it lower dewpoints. With our proximity to more cooler air and the baroclinicity associated with the cold front this wave will likely induce Fgen across the area. The main question is when does this transition to rain in the warmer air to the east. Lows in the low to mid 20s look like a sure bet for the area.
High pressure built to the west of the forecast area. Afternoon highs will continue to struggle to warm above 40, with this really only happening south and west of Pocatello at the low elevations.
(Today through Monday afternoon) Upper trough extends from Canada down across the Northern Plains to the 4 Corners Region. This trough will swing east today and Monday as a ridge grows across the west.
Today will see the 500 mb trough axis move through. Some flurries possible near the warmer lake waters around Lake of the Woods today into tonight so kept some flurry mention there, though west winds would favor any potential organized showers to be in Ontario.
Compared to yesterday's calm conditions, winds will be out of the southwest around 10 mph ahead of the front, with higher readings possible in the higher terrain.
Much of our weather will be dominated by the large 500mb trough set up from the southwestern U. Temperatures will continue to be about 20 degrees below normal today, and 10-20 degrees below normal Monday (as temperatures rise into the low 40s over our southwestern counties). While mainly dry weather will continue, daytime heating with the 500mb trough shifting overhead will bring about more clouds to particularly central South Dakota. A cold front sweeping in from the north will bring a tightening pressure gradient Monday afternoon, with gusts nearing 20 to near 35 kts.
156 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2023 A cold front turns stationary and settles across the lower Ohio Valley this evening. Low pressure systems will move northeast along the front Sunday and Monday.
A broad area of quick southwesterly flow aloft existed east of a large scale trough axis which extended from the northern plains through the Rockies. While the main moisture axis will remain southeast of the area today and tonight, plenty of moisture and lift will be available for widespread showers today into tonight ahead of the upper trough. NBM probabilistic data suggest 50-80% chance of freezing temperatures now extending into our far southeast portion of the CWA late tonight so will be extending our freeze warning to include the 3 remaining counties which were originally not in the warning.
Sunday afternoon into Monday night, the overall trend is for upper ridging to slowly move eastward into our region.
Broad longwave troughing will continue to inch eastward today. At the surface, high pressure will remain in control leaving us with another relatively quiet weather day. On Monday, forecast highs will range from the low 70s across the northwest to mid 80s across the southeast.
207 AM MDT Sun Oct 29 2023 The upper air pattern in place has a upper trough over the Hudson Bay into the northern Great Lakes, with a amplified upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest into the Aleutian Islands. Temperatures will gradually warm as the western ridge builds eastward. High temperatures should rise to around freezing for western and central zones today, with highs held in the 20s over the east. Low level gradients increasing and heights building with the western ridge pushing gradually east, will cause tempeatures to increase further into Monday.
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a positively tilted longwave trough over the Great Basin will keep a moist environment in place into the day tomorrow. Elsewhere, a raw mid Fall night is in store across a good chunk of the forecast area with temperatures falling into the low 40s and upper 30s amid the scattered showers/storms.
Shallow cold front remains stalled in the higher terrain of far southeast Oklahoma with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms developing north of boundary. possibly extending into northwest Arkansas, although warm elevated layer may keep precip rain and/or briefly freezing rain before ending. Low temperatures in the mid/upper 20s are expected across NE OK/NW AR with temps near freezing in the lower valleys of southeast Oklahoma.