Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures will increase and dry conditions will persist as an upper level ridge moves onshore this week. As the upper level trough that has enhanced the critical fire weather conditions slides to the east, it will give way to an upper level ridge that is currently centered between the Intermountain West and Pacific NW regions. This will allow for dry conditions to persist and warmer temperatures to occur over the San Joaquin Valley. Additionally, the departing trough will allow for the pressure gradient to loosen in the Kern Mountains, decreasing the winds and chances for critical fire conditions after today. Models show the high amplitude ridge axis remaining near the PAC NW throughout the week. By mid-week, temperatures will elevate above normal for this time of year as the ridge brings W-SW flow over the region.
Latest upper air analysis shows northwest flow over the High Plains. At the surface a weak cold front is seen approaching South Dakota. Meanwhile temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday, especially over the eastern part of the forecast area. There will be several cold front passages. The upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern over the western CONUS.
656 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Light rain will taper off through the evening as low pressure exits the region.
Early this morning an upper level trough was located across the upper Midwest. Today (Halloween) through Wednesday: The intense upper level trough across the northern Plains will dig southeast into the southern Great Lakes and mid MS valley. The ascent ahead of the H5 trough axis will remain well northeast and east of the CWA Today. Wednesday, the longer wavelength upper trough will shift eastward across the eastern US.
343 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper trough moving through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, leaving cool, dry, northwest aloft flow in its wake. However, they will remain light, combining with clear skies to promote efficient radiational cooling and refreezing temperatures most locations. Areas along the Rio Grande will be spared until the next good cold front.
These conditions will allow low temperatures to drop into the low- to mid-20s, coming especially close to record lows, especially in the east (see Climate section - Vichy's record low of 28F for the 30th has been obliterated tongiht, setting a new record of 22F). A Freeze Warning is in effect for our southeast counties until 10am where temperatures did not drop this low yesterday. Winds will gradually pick up and become more northerly over the course of the early morning as a surface cold front approaches the region. By 6pm, wind chills will be in the high 20s, dropping off quickly as the sun sets. High temperatures begin to recover a bit on Wednesday landing in the high 40s to near 50 as high pressure slides by to the south and turns winds southerly allowing for some warm air advection.
(Today and tonight) A little treat is in store for today with some slightly warmer temperatures and an increase in sunshine, with any lingering cloud cover over the area diminishing from north to south this morning.
Northeast winds will continue through this afternoon with cooler daytime temperatures. The departing trough continues to weaken though the northeast winds will continue through today. High pressure will amplify off the west coast but will begin to flatten out over the next several days.
1009 PM MDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Cool temperatures today with highs barely breaching freezing in some points. As the upper level ridge shifts eastward tomorrow, temperatures will increase closer to near-normal and winds will turn westerly. This mainly applies to the mountains where they received more snowfall, especially at the highest peaks.
308 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023 High pressure will build over the area today into Wednesday as low pressure passes well to our south.
This will be associated with another cold front that will move into far northern Oklahoma around sunrise and clear far southern Oklahoma and northern Texas by early afternoon. The freezing temperatures across roughly the southern third of Oklahoma and western north Texas is about 10 to 14 days ahead of their average first freeze.
A deep mid/upper level trough will be tracking from the upper MS Valley this morning to the upper OH Valley by this evening.
Areas of snow showers are pinwheeling around the upper low and visibilities are being reduced to 3/4 to 1/2 mile in some instances over northeast ND, indicating some brief intense bursts/snow squalls. Periods of snow will continue through early Tuesday morning before the low pulls away to the southeast. Round one will slow down over western WI and there won't be a break in the snow for RNH/EAU between this initial burst of snow on the cold front and the developing deformation band.
A passing cold front has dropped temperatures like a rock over the past 24 hours, with even more to come.
Tonight into Tues morning, strong CAA will bring widespread freezing temps to the area with all but far SErn AR likely seeing subfreezing readings.
Today and Wednesday The area will remain under the influence of high pressure the next few days. The ridge will begin to break down later this afternoon and evening and as it does, we'll likely see an increase in high clouds across the region.
- The rest of the week will be about ten degrees cooler than average, but dry. Wind chills have tanked our apparent temperatures to the low single digits. Satellite shows the low pressure system that is responsible for the strong, gusty winds last night and this morning swirling off to our northeast. Highs will only be in the low 30s with wind chills making it feel more like the low to mid 20s. Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will push the clouds away giving us a mostly sunny afternoon. As the center of the high moves to our southeast this evening, winds will become light and southerly. While better than the low 30s of Tuesday, those temperatures are still roughly ten degrees cooler than average for this time of year.
Dry conditions will persist through late week as the ridge dominates the pattern.
150 AM MDT Tue Oct 31 2023 The persistent upper ridge along the Pacific Northwest coast will slide east today and flatten out. At the same time, a deep upper trough over the Great Lakes will move east too. This will lead to warmer temperatures for the entire area as this occurs. Pattern will feature general ridging through the period with Pacific moisture and energy moving through the region.
Snow showers formed along and ahead of the cold frontal feature that is sweeping from west to east through the forecast area, but overall impacts have been low per observations, area webcams, and DOT road reports. Observation sites within this band have fallen to 1/4 to 1/2 of a mile for 15-30 minutes given the high snow rates and winds of 20 to 30 mph. The band should weaken as the low further occludes, but slows and pivots somewhere along or just east of the Mississippi River per recent HRRR/RAP runs. The snow rapidly tapers off through the late morning and early afternoon as the upper trough advances through and cuts off the synoptic lift.
Otherwise fair weather is expected with temperatures several degrees cooler than average through Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate by the end of the week into early next under a broad ridge of high pressure. North winds diminished across most of the region after sunset aexcept speeds of 10-20 mph continue around the lower Colorado River Valley and other nearby locations that favor north winds.
The chill continues across the forecast area today, as a broad longwave trough remains in place over the central CONUS. Highs will be a bit cooler than today, with a brisk northwest wind keeping even the warmest wind chills around or below 30 degrees. Tomorrow night looks to be the coldest night of this cold snap, as surface ridging shifts southeast over the area. Major urban spots will be a bit warmer, with lows in the low/mid 20s, but still approaching record values. Winds turn more southerly by mid-day Wednesday as high pressure moves off to the east.
1252 AM MDT Tue Oct 31 2023 A dirty ridge hangs over the region through the middle part of this week, which will keep the warming trend going as temps will rise back to seasonal normals.
With broad high pressure forecast for the region through the next several days and little change expected to the forecast, fair weather is expected with temperatures warming each day through the week. Afterwards, the pressure gradient is progged to lessen as a ridge axis shifts eastward, and lessening the northerly support across the CRV. After this morning, the aforementioned ridge weakens overall, becoming more of a broad, low amplitude ridge axis over the western CONUS.
- Slightly warmer later this week, with the return of precipitation chances this weekend.
Trick-or-treating conditions will be cold with wind chills below freezing and falling through the evening.
- Warmer weather returns by the end of the week. A reinforcing shot of cold temperatures is on the way, with an upstream cold front currently analyzed from Concordia KS to Falls City NE - entering far northwest Missouri. Highs today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, with maxes struggling to reach the middle 30s to lower 40s.
An upper ridge to our west will weaken by the time it reaches our area on Tuesday. Temperatures will be a little warmer with highs getting closer to normal. An upper level ridge will continue to move inland today and flatten overnight as conditions remain dry and calm. As the ridge breaks down, temperatures will slowly increase through mid-week and return to near-normal. The next chance for precipitation will stem ahead of a longwave upper level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
impacts of this mornings cold frontal passage will impact high temperatures today. Low temperatures fall into the lower to middle 20s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 20s.
On tab for today, light winds this morning will become more northerly mid to late morning at 5 to 8 knots and then shift to northerly as and area of low pressure system north of the Bahamas moves away from Florida. During the afternoon, winds shift to northwest near 10 knots as a dry cold front pushes across the region. Partly to mostly sunny, rain-free, and warm (highs in the mid to upper 80s, tonight lows in the 50s well north, and lower to mid 60s central and south) Like mentioned above, a dry cold front approaches the area tonight from the northwest, reaching northern portions of the forecast area by early Wednesday morning.
- Anticipated impacts include accumulating snow on untreated and elevated roadways (bridges, overpasses, etc), rapid changes in visibility, and slippery stretches where the scattered snow showers develop. The center of the low is progged to occlude as it moves into north-central Wisconsin tonight, leading to a few hours of light snowfall. The WI DOT has advised that road temperatures will likely be below freezing early tomorrow morning leading to a slushy accumulation on untreated and elevated roadways. Prepare for impacts to the morning commute! The cold front is rather progressive, moving from west to east across the southern half of the forecast area between 04-10z tonight.
But with the cooler airmass shifting away from the area and sunny skies temperatures will warm nicely into the mid 50s by this afternoon. This should help to keep temperatures a degree or two warmer than this morning but with clear skies, light winds, and the dry airmass still in place cold temperatures are expected once again ranging from the upper teens across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains to the upper 20s across the Rolling Plains.
The activity should shift east out of our region by around sunrise as the mid-level trough axis moves away. As result of the decreasing cloud cover, did bump up the high temperatures slightly for this afternoon into the mid to upper 50s and low 60s. This will result in the first widespread freeze of the season across the Hill Country, Williamson County and portions of the highway 90 corridor to the west of San Antonio. There could be some low-lying drainage valleys along and east of the I-35 corridor that could also briefly drop to near or below the freezing mark but areal coverage looks to be too low for the issuance of a Freeze Warning at this time.
Temperatures this morning dropped into the middle to upper 20s in most areas with the exception of south central Missouri which managed to only drop to near freezing. Cold Temps Tonight and again Tuesday: Temperatures will fall quickly tonight given the dry air and light winds with most locations dropping into the lower to middle 20s by Tuesday morning. Tuesday Night- Wednesday: The coldest night is in store during this period as high pressure eventually slides closer to the area by Wednesday morning. High temps Wednesday are again not likely to escape the 40s but should be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday given the dry air in place. Winds will start out light out of the west and turn northerly as they pick up with the passage of a cold front arriving in the northwest around 12Z.
This will set the stage for freezing temps in many areas along with some patches of frost. We continue to expect the more significant freezing temps Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when most areas will experience a hard freeze. (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) The cold front has passed entirely through Middle Tennessee, and we are left with some lingering rain and definitely colder temperatures.
207 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 An upper level trof will swing through today pushing through a second sfc cold front. Highs will be in the upper 40s today with lows again in the lower 20s with even a few teens possible. High pressure will be building at the sfc and moving through the area as the trof aloft moves east and leaves us in northwest flow aloft.
1112 PM MDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Key Messages: 1) Another cold night tonight, then slightly warmer tomorrow. Dry and cold northwest flow aloft this evening will relax as a relatively flat ridge of high pressure starts to build into the Desert SW on Tuesday. Plan on mainly clear skies and light winds across the entire area through the short term, with another cold night on tap for tonight, then slightly warmer tomorrow. Overnight minimum temps tonight are forecast to be 5 to 15F for the high valleys, and in the teens for the plains.
Any snow that falls will melt though the higher snowfall rates will allow for the heavy wet snow to accumulate, especially on grassy surfaces.
(Today through Wednesday night) As the main upper trough continues in it's eastern track.
Low temperatures by morning will fall into the upper teens to low 20s with early morning wind chills in the single digits! Tuesday: Although sustained winds and gusts will diminish throughout the day, wind chill values for late afternoon and early evening adventurers will be in the low 20s to upper teens but winds will continue to diminish throughout the evening.
412 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Much cooler temperatures can be expected though midweek with a chance of snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Latest upper air analysis shows northwest flow over the High Plains. At the surface a weak cold front is seen approaching South Dakota. Meanwhile temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday, especially over the eastern part of the forecast area. There will be several cold front passages. The upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern over the western CONUS. A weak cold front moves through Wednesday accompanying a short wave trough rounding the ridge to the west. After the cold front temperatures warm further as a stronger short wave ridge approaches the forecast area through the rest of the week.
Due to the activity over the Straits, south to southwest winds aloft are sending the high cirrus clouds associated with this shower and thunderstorm activity northeastward towards the Island Chain as seen on GOES 16 Nighttime Microphysics. However, there is just enough of a flow to cause north to northeast winds due to a low pressure system northeast of the Bahamas and a frontal boundary moving southeastward through the central Gulf of Mexico. Since the low pressure is somewhat closer to the Keys, cyclonic flow around the low is causing marine platforms around the Keys to observe north to northeast winds of 5 to 10 knots with the Island Chain near 5 mph.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper trough moving through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, leaving cool, dry, northwest aloft flow in its wake. However, they will remain light, combining with clear skies to promote efficient radiational cooling and refreezing temperatures most locations. Areas along the Rio Grande will be spared until the next good cold front.
Currently, strong northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains with an upper level ridge over the West Coast and a departing potent upper low over the Western Great Lakes region.
1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 (This evening through Tuesday night) Benign weather continues through the period as dry northwest flow aloft and high pressure take over. Temperatures will top out in the mid 40s today, and warm into the low 50s tomorrow.
Light northeast winds will continue overnight, an increase to 5 to 8 knots mid to late morning today and then shift to northwest near 10 knots during the afternoon as a cold front pushes across the region.
Snow showers likely this afternoon and evening along a cold front, before transitioning to lake effect snow after sunset.
Drier and cooler air (high temps in the middle/upper 50s) will settle into the region in the wake of a frontal passage. As a result, dewpoints are forecast to mix into the lower 20s (possibly into the upper teens in some locations), causing RH values to range from the middle/lower 20%. A chilly night is in store as low temperatures will fall into the lower 30s with some northern areas possibility lowering to the upper 20s.
with subfreezing temps at night. ERN and SE sections remained above freezing so far. expect temps to continue to drop this morning to near or just below freezing for most area except maybe the SERN sections. Will keep many zones out of the Freeze Warning tonight/Wed morning where temps will have already dropped to below freezing this morning. This will allow for temps to drop below freezing for all the area tonight.
1258 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 (Tonight through Tuesday night) As the upper-level trough that was responsible for this mornings cold front moves further east, strong northerly flow will continue to bring cooler air to Deep South Texas. Temperatures will continue to fall overnight, with lows reaching the low to mid 40s.
249 AM MDT Tue Oct 31 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large trough running south from the Hudson Bay through the Midwest and down into the southern Great Plains. to the west a large ridge is developing over or just off shore of the North American coast from California to the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Northeast Montana forecast begins under the cooler side of northwest flow wedged in between these two large airmasses.
RMS A weak disturbance brushing eastern Montana, and an associated cold front dropping through the area has brought breezy northwest winds to eastern areas this afternoon, with some localized blowing/drifting snow. Warmer conditions can be expected for Tuesday as ridging pushing in from the west gets flattened, allowing for more zonal, westerly downslope flow to develop over the area. Dry conditions look to continue for Wednesday, with temperatures similar, to a few degrees warmer than Tuesday.
1151 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight. High pressure will return Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure passes well to the south.
(Today through Wednesday) Model consensus show a mid-level trough/low complex migrating across the NE CONUS, with an associated sfc boundary reaching the northern portions of the Florida peninsula today. Despite the approaching front and its parent trough over the Atlantic seaboard, moisture ahead of it seems to not increase too much over the area. High pressure strengthens over the SE CONUS as the aforementioned trough/low push further NE, while imparting a last push to the boundary over northern FL.
154 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Much cooler temperatures can be expected though midweek with a chance of snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.
208 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Sub-freezing temperatures are expected during the overnight hours.
1147 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Much cooler temperatures can be expected though midweek with a chance of snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Another strong cold front, currently moving through eastern Kansas, will sweep through the area today with gusty north winds for much of day. Although we will see mostly sunny conditions, stronger cold air advection should keep high temperatures only in the lower to mid 40s across NE OK/NW AR.
120 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Widespread precipitation will continue to taper off this evening, with mostly dry conditions in store for Tuesday as high pressure builds in. Temperatures are mainly in the lower to mid 30s, and should bottom on 25 to 35F around daybreak. Drier air behind a weak cold front dropping through the region will help erode lingering cloud cover and showers. Temperatures tonight will drop into the 20s across most of the region, although locations near Lake Champlain may stay near or above freezing. Heading into Tuesday, high pressure ridging looks to build in, bringing dry yet chilly weather to the region. Skies will be mostly clear, although daytime high temperatures will range in the low 30s to low 40s, with even cooler temperatures in the mountains.
1133 PM MDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Aviation Section Updated A ridge moves into and stays in the area through Wednesday.
High pressure ridging dominates into Wednesday with stable and dry conditions.
This translates to lows in the 20s and teens for most lower valleys and single digit lows for the higher valleys and mountains. High pressure building out west will eventually slide over the region by Tuesday and flatten out as it does due to an active northern Pacific stream, advecting moisture into the Pacific Northwest and eventually Intermountain West by later in the week. At the same time, a ridge will be amplifying over the West Coast. This northwesterly flow will begin to slowly advect some of the warmer air associated with the ridge into eastern Utah and western Colorado, gradually warming temperatures to near or slightly above normal by the end of the week.
715 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023 (Today through Wednesday) Model consensus show a mid-level trough/low complex migrating across the NE CONUS, with an associated sfc boundary reaching the northern portions of the Florida peninsula today. Despite the approaching front and its parent trough over the Atlantic seaboard, moisture ahead of it seems to not increase too much over the area. High pressure strengthens over the SE CONUS as the aforementioned trough/low push further NE, while imparting a last push to the boundary over northern FL.
A few high clouds continue to break through the eastern Pacific ridge into NorCal, but otherwise skies remain clear. Current temperatures are mostly cooler compared to 24 hours ago across the Central Valley with readings mainly in the upper 30s and 40s. Warmest readings in the Central Valley will approach 80 on Wednesday as the upper ridge moves overhead.
To the west a strong high is blasting through the western Gulf states pushing a powerful cold front across the Gulf of Mexico. Breezes will freshen tonight through Wednesday as a potent Arctic high pressure builds behind a frontal passage.