Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Large trough with some negative tilted aspects occurring. The main focus for the short term is the advancing trough that will turn into a low over northern portions of the area. Any freezing rain looks to occur to the east of Highway 27 with freezing rain transitioning to all snow as the entire moisture profile falls below 0C. Freezing rain looks to end across the entire area by 04Z.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy as high clouds from an upper low move in from the south. Snow is possible from the upper low over Dickey county this afternoon, but accumulations will remain light. A weak upper low will move out of north Montana into northern North Dakota. No precipiation is expected from the week upper low.
Upper low over the central plains will continue to pull away to the northeast with bands of snow on the backside of the system across the far southeast plains expected to end early this morning. Some of the high res models spill some snow showers eastward into the adjacent plains during the late afternoon and evening, however moisture is very high based in model soundings and not likely to amount to much at the surface. Breezy north winds will aid in mixing across the Palmer Divide and far southeast plains which should help temperatures top out a little above freezing.
* Falling temperatures expected today as cold front moves through the area. Warm front extends east of the low roughly along I-70 in Missouri. Warm front is expected to lift north through the morning hours leading to improved ceilings from south to north. As the low lifts towards southwest Iowa ~12Z this morning, cold front builds in from the west and should lead to improving ceilings largely settling in the 1-2K foot range. Fortunately, surface temperatures remain above freezing through the better part of the day so impact from the drizzle is limited. As the upper low moves north, it migrates away from the dominant southern branch of the split upper level jet resulting in relatively slow movement. As individual waves rotate about the low, there is the potential for light snow or flurries across the Upper Midwest.
213 AM MST Tue Jan 3 2023 Weak upper level ridging will propagate east of the Northern Rockies through today, bringing an onset of light to breezy winds, especially in wind-prone locations. Upper-level ridging continues to propagate eastward today, opening the doors for light to breezy southwesterly winds throughout the day and into Wednesday. These locations will also struggle temperature-wise, with afternoon temperatures in the lower teens across much of the Hi-Line and the mid-teens to low- 20s across Southwest Montana and will continue to be the challenge of this forecast. Elsewhere, afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the low- to mid- 30s; however, a gradual temperature warmup is still in order for all locations by the end of the week.
(Today and tonight) The wind machine dials back a bit today in the wake of yesterday's upper cyclone currently entering southern Nebraska. At the surface, a W-E trough in the TX Panhandle will align itself more NW-SE today across our NE zones while resembling more of a backdoor cold front. Later this morning we may see brief and spotty advisory level winds as mixing taps into a layer of 30-35 knots aligned along the Highway 84 corridor, before this layer deamplifies soon thereafter.
A warm front lifts across central Pennsylvania today bringing widespread soaking rain through early afternoon, followed by scattered light showers or drizzle tonight. A cold front crosses the region on Wednesday with additional widespread rainfall and even some rumbles of thunder. Gradually cooler conditions arrive through the end of the week as an upper level trough builds over the region by this weekend. Warm front approaches later this morning with 8H wind max nosing into southwestern PA by 12z. Next wave and cold front push through on Wednesday with another slug of QPF and local thunder (SPC general thunder covers all of PA). Cold front crosses from west to east by late afternoon with cooler post-frontal Pacific air mass gradually working in Wednesday night, so it will remain above normal in the temperature department.
Meanwhile, a low level ridge that was over the Florida Peninsula has slid east and now resides just off the southeastern U. Mean layer ridging centered near the Yucatan Channel will pivot northeast and settle across the western North Atlantic by Wednesday. Meanwhile, aforementioned low level ridging will continue to meander eastward across the western North Atlantic, maintaining east to southeast breezes across the region. This in conjunction with subsidence from the mean layer ridging will keep PoPs near nil through Wednesday night. As this occurs, ridging will slide further east leading to slackening winds by Wednesday afternoon.
Later today will see high pressure and very brief fair conditions. This will also be the start of a warm up which will see the highs increase by a few degrees but still in large remain in the 30s. Even with the increased temperatures will still likely peak in the high 30s and not breech into the 40s. Overnight lows will see a bigger change as Wednesday night will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer compared to Tuesday night.
Light precipitation expected by the afternoon with mostly overcast skies and warmer humid air. Models consistently show the track of the cyclone focusing a moderate to strong atmospheric river over northwest California. Similar to the last system, strong southeast flow around the cyclone will focus most of the rain in the southern half of the area, especially on ridgetops. Snow levels above 4000 feet will limit any snow concerns to the highest peaks of Trinity County. 1 shows an 90% chance of gusts exceeding 55 mph on the ridges of Humboldt County with a 35% chance of similar winds around Humboldt Bay.
519 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 (Today and tonight) The wind machine dials back a bit today in the wake of yesterday's upper cyclone currently entering southern Nebraska. At the surface, a W-E trough in the TX Panhandle will align itself more NW-SE today across our NE zones while resembling more of a backdoor cold front. Later this morning we may see brief and spotty advisory level winds as mixing taps into a layer of 30-35 knots aligned along the Highway 84 corridor, before this layer deamplifies soon thereafter.
249 AM MST Tue Jan 3 2023 Across the region this morning, skies remain cloudy with wrap around moisture from a slow moving exiting low pressure system bringing additional snow mainly for areas north of the Interstate. As the low complex shifts further east this morning, do expect precip to wane, but not before an additional inch or so of snow falls, mainly for areas along/north of Highway 36 based on current radar imagery. Going into tonight, winds begin to drop off as the system pulls away further, allowing for high pressure to become the dominant weather feature. Guidance has an upper ridge building east from the Rockies for the remainder of the short term period, allowing for dry conditions area-wide. Looking for a range in the lower to mid 30s.
High pressure is for the most part back in control of the weather. This all begins to change Wed night, as the next trough and associated surface front moves into the Gem State.
439 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper trough that brought so much wind to the region yesterday is ejecting through Kansas/Nebraska toward the Great Lakes region at 06Z. The latest NAM12 maintains an uninterrupted mtn wave signature through 18Z Wednesday, and models tighten up 700mb height gradients to 60m/200nm by around 03Z Wednesday over the higher terrain out west. Thus, we'll keep the high wind warning going through Wednesday morning. Wednesday, gradients finally relax on the backside of the exiting secondary trough, and upper-level ridging starts to build in.
Accumulations will be light, around an inch in the higher elevations. Johnson County and near Cody could rise above the freezing mark.
High temps will generally be in the 30s once skies improve, though eastern valleys may struggle to get any warmer than the teens today if the low clouds and fog remain entrenched there. Upper ridge continues to build in from the west Wednesday leading to dry conditions. High temps will trend warmer through the 30s Wednesday with some 20s in the east. BT Clustering analysis is in good agreement that ridging will prevail over the forecast period.
513 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 (Today and tonight) Relatively strong low-level flow from the northwest, generated by the departing low pressure system, pushes the H850 cold front into northern Oklahoma today. As a result, areas north of I-40 will see an increase in northwest winds and cooler (more seasonable) temperatures.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper trough that brought so much wind to the region yesterday is ejecting through Kansas/Nebraska toward the Great Lakes region at 06Z. The latest NAM12 maintains an uninterrupted mtn wave signature through 18Z Wednesday, and models tighten up 700mb height gradients to 60m/200nm by around 03Z Wednesday over the higher terrain out west. Thus, we'll keep the high wind warning going through Wednesday morning. Wednesday, gradients finally relax on the backside of the exiting secondary trough, and upper-level ridging starts to build in.
420 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 A deep area of closed low pressure is located across the central plains this morning. The negative tilt to the system has allowed this moisture to advect westward into the High Plains where a deformation axis of snow has materialized early this morning.
Across the region this morning, skies remain cloudy with wrap around moisture from a slow moving exiting low pressure system bringing additional snow mainly for areas north of the Interstate. As the low complex shifts further east this morning, do expect precip to wane, but not before an additional inch or so of snow falls, mainly for areas along/north of Highway 36 based on current radar imagery. Going into tonight, winds begin to drop off as the system pulls away further, allowing for high pressure to become the dominant weather feature. Guidance has an upper ridge building east from the Rockies for the remainder of the short term period, allowing for dry conditions area-wide. Looking for a range in the lower to mid 30s.
/NEW/ Update: The cold front has reached East and Southeast Texas, ending all convection across the forecast area. Cooler and drier air is entering in its wake. All activity should exit to our east by sunrise Tuesday, leaving dry and cooler conditions in its wake, with morning lows in the 40s and 50s expected. Temperatures will be generally 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Wednesday as a result.
(Today and tonight) Relatively strong low-level flow from the northwest, generated by the departing low pressure system, pushes the H850 cold front into northern Oklahoma today. As a result, areas north of I-40 will see an increase in northwest winds and cooler (more seasonable) temperatures.
Otherwise, warmer and slightly drier conditions will return. The edits that were made to the evening forecast package remain intact, which mainly involved smoothing out the QPF amounts along the higher terrain. We'll see a brief ridge build-up on Wednesday, allowing a slight warming trend to occur.
Weak upper level ridging will propagate east of the Northern Rockies through today, bringing an onset of light to breezy winds, especially in wind-prone locations. Upper-level ridging continues to propagate eastward today, opening the doors for light to breezy southwesterly winds throughout the day and into Wednesday. These locations will also struggle temperature-wise, with afternoon temperatures in the lower teens across much of the Hi-Line and the mid-teens to low- 20s across Southwest Montana and will continue to be the challenge of this forecast. Elsewhere, afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the low- to mid- 30s; however, a gradual temperature warmup is still in order for all locations by the end of the week.
One more evening/morning for potential fog, including sea fog as moisture increases ahead of a strong cold front moving towards the SE. The chance for showers and possible thunderstorms begins to increase Wednesday afternoon ahead of the cold front as it begins to descend into Florida.
Temperatures this afternoon will be much cooler than yesterday due to cloud cover and yeseterday's cold front passage with highs only topping out in the 50s/60s and 70s along the Rio Grande.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Warm and mostly dry conditions will continue through Wednesday across South Florida as the region remains under the influence of strong high pressure to our east over the Atlantic. Breezy southeast winds today will become more S/SE tomorrow as the high drifts further to the east. Near record warm high temps today and tomorrow with afternoon highs in the low to middle 80s. Low temps tonight in the lower 70s for the east coast metro, and mid to upper 60s elsewhere.
There are a few snow showers over the high mountains.
315 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 Discussion/Marine --Dense Fog Threat Tonight and Wednesday Morning-- Sfc warm front is still located just south of the MI/IN border but expected to make some northward progress tonight before becoming a triple point/occlusion overhead on Wednesday. One limiting factor this evening for dense fog is the potential for a decent batch of showers (and perhaps even isolated tstms) to come through, which would temporarily mix out the lower visibilities.
Rounds of light precipitation will continue though this time period, with mainly rain showers and drizzle through tonight as surface temps remain above freezing. Could even be a period of freezing drizzle for locations that drop near or just below the freezing mark, mainly across the southwest forecast area.
Gusty southerly flow continues to advection warm and moist air northward, and despite cloud cover, temperatures are around 70 with dew points in the lower 60s. (Tonight through Wednesday night) Some models hint at another round of strong to severe thunderstorms moving into the area ahead of and along the primary cold front during the overnight hours through daybreak on Wednesday. Cold air advection behind the front will make for a cooler day, as highs only reach the 60 to 65 degree range.
There is much dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere below 700hpa, but in particular at and below 850hpa. being eaten up by the low level dry air/dry air advection on northerly low level winds. Given the extreme slowness of movement of this upper low, even though snowfall is expected to be light, it's not going to go anywhere. Mean ridge will hold in place through the period with weaker systems trying to crash through. The flow pattern really favors the west coast for major precip events and the northern plains are generally in warmer pacific air.
1135 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper trough that brought so much wind to the region yesterday is ejecting through Kansas/Nebraska toward the Great Lakes region at 06Z. The latest NAM12 maintains an uninterrupted mtn wave signature through 18Z Wednesday, and models tighten up 700mb height gradients to 60m/200nm by around 03Z Wednesday over the higher terrain out west. Thus, we'll keep the high wind warning going through Wednesday morning. Wednesday, gradients finally relax on the backside of the exiting secondary trough, and upper-level ridging starts to build in.
With the elevated wind speeds negating any chance of radiational cooling, low temperatures should stay in the low to mid 40s. As the upper level low in the Midwest slowly drifts north and east tonight and tomorrow, the trough axis will linger across the area, leaving us in an area of 60-75 kt mid to upper level flow at the base of the trough. With this continued westerly flow bringing in much drier air to the lower levels (surface dew points dropping into the low 20s/upper teens by afternoon), skies are expected to remain mostly clear and will allow for deep mixing. Hi-res models have continued to try and drop a very weak cold frontal boundary into northern portions of the Big Country tomorrow afternoon. Upper level ridging will begin to slide in from the Desert Southwest late Wednesday keeping conditions dry.
1104 AM MST Tue Jan 3 2023 Satellite imagery shows expansive cloud cover associated with the long wave trough that has moved east into the Central Plains as of this morning. On the back side of the center of low pressure, wrap around moisture continues to impact portions of the forecast area this morning. Still though, don't be surprised to see lingering orographic snowfall over the high terrain (particularly near the Continental Divide) tomorrow. Meanwhile, subsidence increases over the western CWA as a transitory ridge works across the western CONUS. Models were consistent in moving a ridge of high pressure over the Rockies Wednesday night ahead of the next Pacific storm as it approaches the West Coast.
123 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 Unseasonably mild and wet weather through Wednesday will trend cooler and drier by late week. Cloudy, very mild and murky through the overnight period in the warm sector with some areas of fog and 12hr min temps in the low to mid 50s or +30-40F above early January climo! Expect another round of rain/showers Wednesday afternoon and evening in advance of sfc cold front.
Things finally clear out Wed night with a slightly cooler airmass moving in.
A second short wave trough will rotate around the main trough to our north through tonight.
116 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 - Cooler temperatures but still trending above normal.
142 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 Unseasonably mild and wet weather through Wednesday will trend cooler and drier by late week. Cloudy, very mild and murky through the overnight period in the warm sector with some areas of fog and 12hr min temps in the low to mid 50s or +30-40F above early January climo! Expect another round of rain/showers Wednesday afternoon and evening in advance of sfc cold front.
Also, bulk shear values of 50-65kt will remain despite the low southwesterly low level jet decelerating to 35-45kt overnight.
The mid/upper level low across the Upper Midwest is forecast to move very little over the next 24-36 hours, with broad cyclonic flow aloft over the mid-Mississippi Valley. Any flurries/snow showers should stay to our north closer to the aforementioned mid/upper level closed low. The big change for our area will be the much cooler temperatures. Low temperatures both tonight and Wednesday night will also be much cooler, in the upper 20s to mid 30s tonight and the upper 20s to low 30s Wednesday night.
With a relatively weak flow aloft combined with downslope reinforced dry air in the lower/mid levels across the Western High Plains, precip chances will remain out of the forecast through late Wednesday. Decreased cloud cover, lighter winds, and drier air will allow low temperatures to fall well into the teens(F) in west central and portions of southwest Kansas with the lower/mid 20s(F) possible in south central Kansas. Downsloping will continue to push slightly warmer air into western Kansas Wednesday, resulting in widespread afternoon highs in the 40s(F) under mostly sunny skies. Strong northwest winds will relax one final time Wednesday evening into the overnight period as the last vestige of influence from the early week cyclone departs southwest KS, allowing temperatures to crater once again into the mid teens to mid 20s by sunrise.
With the dense fog continuing in the southwest, we knocked back the warmer high temperatures here a bit. Skies will remain mostly cloudy as high clouds from an upper low move in from the south. Snow is possible from the upper low over Dickey county this afternoon, but accumulations will remain light. A weak upper low will move out of north Montana into northern North Dakota. No precipiation is expected from the week upper low.
With a relatively weak flow aloft combined with downslope reinforced dry air in the lower/mid levels across the Western High Plains, precip chances will remain out of the forecast through late Wednesday. Decreased cloud cover, lighter winds, and drier air will allow low temperatures to fall well into the teens(F) in west central and portions of southwest Kansas with the lower/mid 20s(F) possible in south central Kansas. Downsloping will continue to push slightly warmer air into western Kansas Wednesday, resulting in widespread afternoon highs in the 40s(F) under mostly sunny skies.
Turning colder as a cold front brings a return to seasonably cold weather through mid week. The low pressure system associated with this system was still in the upper Mississippi valley and was bringing heavy snow and freezing precipitation across the northern plains into the upper Mississippi valley. Upper energy around the low will push across the area, but with little moisture, we are only expecting some high cloud cover. The low will be slow to move much on Wednesday as a blocking ridge aloft will keep the upper flow fairly stagnant.
The forecast calls for highs in the lower 80s with no more rain chance. High pressure will continue to build just off the Southeast United States coast, with moderate to fresh breezes at times today through Wednesday.
1230 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 (Today and tonight) Relatively strong low-level flow from the northwest, generated by the departing low pressure system, pushes the H850 cold front into northern Oklahoma today. As a result, areas north of I-40 will see an increase in northwest winds and cooler (more seasonable) temperatures.
Other than the low stratus and fog, the weather remains pretty quiet.
Deep and stacked cyclone continues to slowly rotate through the Cornbelt. Luckily for our area low level temperatures continue to gradually warm with a bulk of the forecast area at or above freezing as of this afternoon. Visibilities to the south have been dense and with southern counties aligned north of warm front would not be surprised if fog spreads. WEDNESDAY: Colder air will filter in tomorrow across all areas limiting precipitation type to just snow as upper low continues slow migration.
Lows will drop to near or below freezing as scattered cloud cover generally wanes across the area by daybreak. It looks like a very weak cold front will enter the area tomorrow evening, with minimal sensible impacts apart from a brief enhancement of winds across northwest Oklahoma toward sunset.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) As the large upper level trough gradually drifts eastward over the Southern Plains this evening, southwest flow will become briefly zonal before shifting to northwest aloft.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday/ After a couple of warm days, it feels slightly cooler and drier today today with temperatures in the 60s and dewpoints in the 20s/30s as of 12 PM CST. Highs will range from the upper 60s to low 70s later today which is still 10-20 degrees warmer than normal for early January. The departing low pressure system will send another weak but dry cold front late tonight into tomorrow, bringing a wind shift to the NW and cooler temperatures.
1154 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 Widespread rainfall and isolated thunderstorms will continue with crossing low pressure, with warm and potentially record- breaking temperature ahead of a Wednesday cold front. Recent radar mosaic suggests widespread rainfall across the region within the warm sector of approaching low pressure, currently deepening across the central CONUS. In addition to the high moisture content, CAMs maintain, and recent radar confirms some modest elevated CAPE with values of 100-200 J/kg. One last plume of widespread rain is likely late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning along or just ahead of the cold front itself as it inches eastward well ahead of the vertically- stacked and slow-moving low across the Midwest. Precipitation chances will quickly dwindle Wednesday night after the cold front passes.
Current satellite shows a strong upper level low pressure system over the Northern Kansas and Nebraska which is bringing some clouds to this area this afternoon.