Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
227 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Key Message - More sunshine is expected on Sunday along with slightly warmer highs Cloud cover remains the main forecast challenge going into the later afternoon and early evening. The Devils Lake region may be slightly cooler than other areas. The one saving grace for a cooler dip in that area may be slightly increasing south winds toward Sunday morning. So although there may be localized cooler spots, most areas should hold in the 40s tonight. Sunday will be a bit warmer than today, with more sun.
349 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Dry conditions will continue into this evening as high pressure remains in control of our weather.
Upper ridge axis is now east of us with our area under southwest flow aloft.
308 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 (Issued 308 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023) Tonight through Sunday night: Persistent high clouds have likely kept instability on the low side early this afternoon, with the better threat for thunder likely tied to the stronger forcing approaching from the west. Could see some breaks in the clouds west tomorrow afternoon, but otherwise clouds and rain chances will keep it a bit cooler, with highs mainly in the 60s expected.
301 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 High pressure will maintain dry weather most of tonight as it moves east. Rain chances return Sunday with crossing low pressure.
The larger upper trough centered over the Great Lakes will push through the area late tonight and into early Sunday morning bringing much drier air to the area.
This will help send a dry reinforcing cold front through our CWA Sunday. As a result slightly cooler than normal morning lows are expected Sunday with near season afternoon highs across much of the CWA but, our southern zones will continue to run above normal.
Broad midlevel ridging will build into the area beginning on Sunday, with drier air moving in behind the now departing frontal boundary.
206 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 High pressure over the region will result in mainly clear skies tonight with areas of late night fog.
(The rest of today ) Weak upper level trough continues to slide east across the area this morning, with spotty light showers persisting from about I-40 north.
222 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 High pressure over the region will result in mainly clear skies tonight with areas of late night fog.
The low-lvl flow will veer more solidly SWrly on Sunday as a strengthening sfc. High temperatures will generally run in the low 90s through the weekend with peak heat indices generally 103-107 degrees.
1256 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Clear/dry under high pressure most of today.
245 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Today's mild temperatures and dry weather give way to cooler temperatures and a few showers on Sunday. Temperatures trend warmer as we head into the work week, reaching the upper 70s to around 80 degrees at times, but dry weather resumes again. An upper trough and associated mid level energy swing through the area between this evening and Sunday.
Key Messages: - There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather with far southeast Nebraska having the highest threat.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 81 57 79 / 50 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 78 57 77 / 70 50 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 63 78 55 76 / 70 40 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 71 53 72 / 80 80 20 10.
1126 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Upper low currently north of Lake Superior will continue to move east today, with ridge building across the Northern Plains.
North America is under an Omega pattern, with high amplitude ridging extending north into the Canadian Prairies and troughiness over the Ohio River Valley. Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee is nearing western Nova Scotia. A broad and flat mean- layer ridge stretches across Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico, south of a potent belt of westerlies over the Deep South. The low-level gradient across the Keys is very weak. Temperatures are in the lower 90s, with Marathon erupting to 97, an all-time monthly record.
A weak cold front will pass through late tonight into early tomorrow morning leading to southerly winds becoming northerly behind the front. For Sunday, an upper-level trough digs southeastward, with its axis passing overhead during the afternoon. In response, an associated cold front at the surface will push across the Deep South, sweeping across our local area during the late morning and afternoon hours. Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 60s north of I-10 to the low to mid 70s along the coast.
Quiet weather with mostly clear skies persisted through the morning as ridging sat over the region. With drier air in place, temperatures were trending a few degrees warmer than this time yesterday morning. Ridging over the Intermountain West and Great Basin will bring temperatures back toward seasonal normals for mid-September through the weekend with mostly sunny skies and breezy southerly afternoons.
303 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 High pressure will maintain fair weather through most if not all of Sunday.
1130 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2023 High pressure slowly approaches the West Slope this morning. Drier air is filtering in from the northwest in front of a building ridge of high pressure situated over the Great Basin. Temperatures are expected to rebound today as the ridge builds overhead. Sunday will see the ridge axis overhead much of the day, with temperatures bumping up a degree or two and plenty of sunshine. The medium range period begins with a flat ridge over the forecast area, a closed low off the northern California coast and another deeper closed low just off the northern coast of British Columbia.
Ridging will continue to drive out weather pattern for the next few days, resulting in near normal temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and dry conditions to the region.
(This evening through Sunday) One final but well defined short wave trough observed on water vapor imagery was moving overhead this afternoon bringing some lift to the region favoring the Rolling Plains. Subsidence will move overhead on the backside of this short wave trough this evening effectively shutting down any convection that happens to develop. Surface ridging moving over the area tonight will lead to cooler morning temperatures for Sunday morning. Short wave ridging will move overhead on Sunday resulting in rising heights and keeping convection chances at bay.
By Sunday the stalled boundary will start to move north as a cold front starts pushing through the southeast.
1219 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 (The rest of today ) Weak upper level trough continues to slide east across the area this morning, with spotty light showers persisting from about I-40 north.
1128 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2023 An upper level ridge persist across the state keeping flow aloft weak. Sunday is shaping up to be another sunny day, and temperatures will continue their warming trend with further warm advection under a flattening ridge. We should see mid 80s across the plains for highs, with 60s to mid 70s in the high country.
An ENE-WSW oriented trof axis aloft across far northern OK and will continue to slide southeast across the forecast area thru the afternoon. A stronger s/wv trof, with PV max dropping down into IA attm, will slide southeast into the mid- Mississippi valley thru Sunday morning. A concomitant cold front was moving across IA, extending west into southern NE.
752 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 (Through Tonight) High pressure will be to the northeast of the area this afternoon, as frontal boundary stretches from western FL panhandle into north central FL.
915 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 (Issued 915 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023) Showers and some thunderstorms continue to slowly occur around and southeast of the cold front, mainly around the Interstate 43 corridor from Beloit to northeast of Milwaukee over Lake Michigan. Wood (Issued 308 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023) Tonight through Sunday night: Persistent high clouds have likely kept instability on the low side early this afternoon, with the better threat for thunder likely tied to the stronger forcing approaching from the west. Could see some breaks in the clouds west tomorrow afternoon, but otherwise clouds and rain chances will keep it a bit cooler, with highs mainly in the 60s expected.
735 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Aviation The radar is currently showing some low topped isolated convection across the northwest zones in area of weak instability well ahead of the surface cold front which is back in central Wisconsin. LAPs soundings still show a dry wedge below 700 mb to be overcome but continued low level moisture advection overnight should result in increased coverage of measurable precip along and ahead of the cold front by late tonight into Sunday morning. The sharp upper trough axis arrives on Sunday morning with sufficient instability for at least isolated thunder across the southern half of the forecast area. Highest POPs will also be across the southern zones where deeper moisture and better lift associated with vort max at the base of the trough will be located.
High pressure remains the dominant influence through mid- week, with seasonably mild to slightly above normal temperatures. By the latter half of the work week, a potent fall-like system will bring much cooler temperatures.
536 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2023 A ridge of high pressure will prevail over the region through Sunday. A weak flow aloft will shift from northwesterly to westerly, with slightly warmer temperatures at 700 mb.
Current temp trends in the upper 60s/lower 70s also look to fall more into the lower/mid 60s early Sun, as slightly drier air begins to gradually filter into the area from the NNW.
758 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 High pressure will maintain dry weather most of tonight as it moves east. Rain chances return Sunday with crossing low pressure.
510 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee will track northeast into the Bay of Fundy through tonight.
524 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 High pressure will maintain fair weather through most if not all of Sunday.
Isolated showers and t-storms have developed from Floyd County to Childress County - along an NE-SW axis associated with the upper-trough and perhaps a weak surface reflection/wind shift providing some modest convergence. (This evening through Sunday) One final but well defined short wave trough observed on water vapor imagery was moving overhead this afternoon bringing some lift to the region favoring the Rolling Plains. Subsidence will move overhead on the backside of this short wave trough this evening effectively shutting down any convection that happens to develop. Surface ridging moving over the area tonight will lead to cooler morning temperatures for Sunday morning. Short wave ridging will move overhead on Sunday resulting in rising heights and keeping convection chances at bay.
619 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 (This evening through Sunday) One final but well defined short wave trough observed on water vapor imagery was moving overhead this afternoon bringing some lift to the region favoring the Rolling Plains. Subsidence will move overhead on the backside of this short wave trough this evening effectively shutting down any convection that happens to develop. Surface ridging moving over the area tonight will lead to cooler morning temperatures for Sunday morning. Short wave ridging will move overhead on Sunday resulting in rising heights and keeping convection chances at bay.
Meanwhile, latest surface analysis places a weak cold front from the Great Lakes Region back through the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. CJC Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish overnight as a cold front makes its way across the region. Behind this boundary, expect a return of dry conditions and temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
630 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 High pressure over the region will result in mainly clear skies tonight with areas of late night fog.
544 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) An upper trough extends from the Great Lakes down through the MS River Valley to N TX as a ridge extends from Mexico up across the 4 Corners Region to MT. The trough will move east Sunday and the ridge will slide over the area.
A ridge of high pressure will prevail over the region through Sunday. A weak flow aloft will shift from northwesterly to westerly, with slightly warmer temperatures at 700 mb.
644 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Broken cloud cover can be seen on visible satellite imagery across most of Upper Michigan this afternoon as a mid-level trough rotates through the region. And, current WV imagery clearly shows moisture streaming northeastward into the associated closed low situated over northern Ontario. Key Messages: -Sprinkles and some light rain showers closer to Superior with chilly northerly flow as high pressure builds in. However, some lingering showers and sprinkles are still possible through the afternoon with some kinks in the flow as the upper trough exits eastward. Sprinkles may linger closer to the Superior into the first half of the night, but CAA and dry air behind the low will help cloud cover clear out Sunday night. The limiting factor may be some patchy fog, which could keep temperatures a couple degrees warmer than expected.
1020 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Weak low pressure will move northeast across the upper Ohio Valley tonight. A mid level trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday into Sunday night.
654 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish overnight as a cold front makes its way across the region. Behind this boundary, expect a return of dry conditions and temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
Key Message - More sunshine is expected on Sunday along with slightly warmer highs Cloud cover remains the main forecast challenge going into the later afternoon and early evening. The Devils Lake region may be slightly cooler than other areas. The one saving grace for a cooler dip in that area may be slightly increasing south winds toward Sunday morning. So although there may be localized cooler spots, most areas should hold in the 40s tonight. Sunday will be a bit warmer than today, with more sun.
748 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 High pressure over the region will result in mainly clear skies tonight with areas of late night fog.
720 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Today's mild temperatures and dry weather give way to cooler temperatures and a few showers on Sunday. Temperatures trend warmer as we head into the work week, reaching the upper 70s to around 80 degrees at times, but dry weather resumes again. An upper trough and associated mid level energy swing through the area between this evening and Sunday.
625 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) An inverted trough is currently pushing across Middle Tennessee and bringing quite a bit of showers through with some surprisingly high rainfall totals in a few areas.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected inland with skies partly cloudy and lows in the low to mid 70s.
520 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2023 High pressure is firmly in control across the area as much drier air following the passage of yesterday's system has encompassed the region. Removed all mention of PoPs both today and tomorrow as high pressure looks to provide ample sunshine and stable conditions under a dry air mass. Some cumulus may form during the afternoon over the high terrain but don't expect much vertical growth under these stable conditions. The hi-res CAMs still want to paint some isolated convection popping in the afternoon but think like today, this will be more in the form of shallow cumulus over the ridges with little vertical growth due to lack of forcing. Mostly zonal flow (the remnants of a flattened ridge) over the forecast area will start the new week.
301 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2023 A ridge of high pressure will prevail over the region through Sunday. A weak flow aloft will shift from northwesterly to westerly, with slightly warmer temperatures at 700 mb.
Clouds will thicken up early as a wave of low pressure rolls up into the far srn tier in the morning. The clouds/rain should keep temps down much cooler than prev fcst had it, esp in the central mtns.
Currently - Weak ridging has filled in off the southeast coast. Modest ridging is in place through the mid and upper levels and associated drier air blankets the area through the mid levels. Short Term Update - High pressure will remain off the southeast coast overnight. Expect overnight lows to settle in the lower 80s with dew points lingering in the mid 70s. Weak ridging off the southeast Atlantic coast and dissipating effects of day time heating will gradually result in light breezes becoming more uniform out of the southeasterly across Keys waters tonight.
Currently, an upper level trough is moving southeast through the Upper Midwest, dragging a cold front with it. There is the potential for isolated thunderstorms again tonight mainly in our northeastern counties along the cold front as it passes through.
624 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Besides patchy fog possible on Sunday morning, tranquil weather The amplified mid-level ridge axis currently extends from Wyoming to the Arizona, with a pair of strong troughs poised to move into British Columbia. Also observed on the water vapor loop is a cut off low pressure system (well off the California shore), and to its south, a subtropical jet moving ashore the Baja peninsula.
333 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2023 High pressure is firmly in control across the area as much drier air following the passage of yesterday's system has encompassed the region. Removed all mention of PoPs both today and tomorrow as high pressure looks to provide ample sunshine and stable conditions under a dry air mass. Some cumulus may form during the afternoon over the high terrain but don't expect much vertical growth under these stable conditions. The hi-res CAMs still want to paint some isolated convection popping in the afternoon but think like today, this will be more in the form of shallow cumulus over the ridges with little vertical growth due to lack of forcing. Mostly zonal flow (the remnants of a flattened ridge) over the forecast area will start the new week.
The radar is currently showing some low topped isolated convection across the northwest zones in area of weak instability well ahead of the surface cold front which is back in central Wisconsin. LAPs soundings still show a dry wedge below 700 mb to be overcome but continued low level moisture advection overnight should result in increased coverage of measurable precip along and ahead of the cold front by late tonight into Sunday morning. The sharp upper trough axis arrives on Sunday morning with sufficient instability for at least isolated thunder across the southern half of the forecast area. Highest POPs will also be across the southern zones where deeper moisture and better lift associated with vort max at the base of the trough will be located.
A secondary front will push through behind it this afternoon with ridging expected to push SWD behind it across the MS River Valley. With the cooler/drier air moving in this afternoon into tonight behind the front, look for morning lows on Monday to be 5-10 degrees lower than this morning. Monday looks to be a beauty with sunny skies thanks to high pressure building over the state with high temperatures a couple of degrees lower than today.
A upper level low pressure system will remain off the Central California coast for the next few days and provide the area with cooler temperatures.
322 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Key Messages: - Seasonable Temperatures are Expected for Sunday and Monday with Highs in the Lower to Middle 70s for Most.
201 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Upper level trough and weak surface front is on approach from the northwest. The upper trough axis should clear the region by about 21z, but in the meantime a few showers and a thunderstorm or two will be possible but the probability of measurable rain at any one spot is only about 30% and the probability of 0. The airmass behind the front isn't dramatically different but is slightly cooler and drier than what we have now.
Lows tonight will be in the 60s and warmer Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
After a few more days of fall-like conditions, warmer conditions return to start the work week.
Mostly dry conditions were observed across the area as an upper- level trough continues to translate eastward this morning. The cold front that was responsible for the scattered showers and thunderstorms yesterday continues to move off to the east, as well. High temperatures today will warm to the lower to middle 70s. Dry conditions, and perhaps some patchy fog, are expected tonight as high pressure and mid-level ridging build in from the west. With the high pressure ridge axis over our forecast area, resulting in light winds and clear skies, I went with the 25th percentile of the model spectrum, which gave overnight lows tonight in the middle to upper 40s for most.
352 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Low pressure will track north across the eastern part of Pennsylvania late today and this evening. An upper trough and associated cold front will then push across the region on Monday.
Zonal flow aloft remains over the state this morning south of a deepening E CONUS trough along with weak ridging present at the surface. into N FL through mid week with a weakness/broad troughing aloft remaining over the region.
A mid level disturbance moving southeast through the Southern Plains, Ozarks, and the Mississippi River Valley will support a weak cold front through North-Central Texas this morning with light west winds becoming north around 10 mph with a few gusts to 15 mph by this afternoon.
Most areas should see a degree or two of warming Monday afternoon over highs reached Sunday afternoon as high pressure builds slightly over AR.
Temperatures range from near 60 northwest, to the lower to mid 60s elsewhere. Upper trough and a frontal system are both expected to move across the mid state today.
Shower coverage is expected to increase in the next few hours, mainly in the Plateau areas as a cold front in Middle TN progresses east, and an upper trough amplifies and drops from the Great Lakes into the OH Valley. Gradually drying will come tomorrow morning as the cold front moves through the area. Clouds will likely linger over most of the area into the early afternoon as the upper trough lags behind the front, with some clearing expected from west to east through the afternoon. As the trough moves to our east, precip will tend to move off with it, with best precip chances on Sunday across northeast TN and adjacent portions of SW VA. A digging 500 MB trough will keep low chance POPs in for Sunday afternoon the northern Plateau and central Valley.
1236 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee will track northeast across the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) An upper trough extends from the Great Lakes down through the MS River Valley to N TX as a ridge extends from Mexico up across the 4 Corners Region to MT. The trough will move east Sunday and the ridge will slide over the area.
A ridge of high pressure will prevail over the region through Sunday. A weak flow aloft will shift from northwesterly to westerly, with slightly warmer temperatures at 700 mb. Models indicate upper ridging over the CWA Sunday night into Monday.
The surface boundary/trough will continue to move downstream through the morning hours, which should put more limits on POPs with time. Despite typical sea/lake breeze, upper levels will be incredibly dry, which should limit updraft potential despite the low level convergence and heating.
High pressure over the region will maintain warm and dry conditions into early Sunday. The high will shift eastward on Sunday and Monday, with increasing onshore flow and cooler temperatures.
1112 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee will track northeast across the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
With the low RHs expected, it will actually feel tolerable outside. What makes it even better will be the evenings, where the combination of cooler temps/lower RH will bring overnight lows in the lower/middle 60s inland and upper 60s/near 70 degrees coast.