Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
140 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Hot and dry is the name of the game for this weekend as we sit under a prominent upper ridge with persist downslope warming occurring.
1005 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 (Issued 956 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023) The weather will remain quiet tonight as high pressure lingers over the region. CMiller (Issued 358 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023) Tonight and Friday: The quiet wx should persist through Friday underneath the high pressure system. Clouds begin to approach from the NW Friday afternoon, associated with a frontal boundary extending SW from a low pressure in Ontario.
During than and tomorrow afternoon, PWATs are slated to drop meaning notably less moisture for storms to work with for Friday as flow becomes more west/northwest with ridging developing over the region. Despite the lower rain chances, high temperatures will remain ~5 degrees below normal. Ridging will persist into the first part of the weekend, keeping more NWerly flow over the area. Later in the weekend and into the first part of next work week, troughing starts to develop to our west, bringing more SWerly flow to the area. By the middle of next work week we see the potential of another northern stream trough digging south into the western Conus.
358 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today.
ample moisture along a northeast to southwest oriented upper level trough is currently producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across parts of far eastern Colorado early this morning. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower 60s to lower 70s with low temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s. upper level ridging builds along the spine of the Continental Divide.
1139 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 (This evening through Friday night) Upper ridging centered over the Pacific Coast this afternoon, with troughing over the northern Rockies and New England. Away from convection, temperatures generally warmed into the upper 80s to lower 90s with dew points in the lower and middle 70s. High temperatures on Friday will be driven by when/where convection develops, with areas not seeing convection reaching the lower 90s.
The base of this upper trough may dip farther south into the ArkLaMiss region and Tennessee Valley by Saturday night.
In its wake a upper level trough, currently over the southern Canadian Plains, will dig into the Upper Midwest. This will front a cold front into the area late this afternoon into his evening. Southwesterly flow and compressional heating will allow highs to rise into the low to mid 80s. The initial cold front will push south of the forecast area by Saturday morning as the upper level trough moves into the western Great Lakes. Saturday afternoon, a strong vort max with ride down the back side of the upper level trough which will move into the area. This will push a reinforcing cold front into the area and provide good upper level support for storm development.
100 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Canadian high pressure will build into the region from the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Only made some minimal tweaks to hourly temperature and dewpoint grids, and overnight lows are still expected to range from the lower 50s to the lower 60s. Northerly flow over the region between Lee moving into the northern Atlantic and high pressure over the Great Lakes will gradually weaken as the high slips south. Those 1370s thicknesses also support lows in the lower 50s for most of the area and upper 40s in the cooler spots across the Piedmont.
This morning, satellite water vapor imagery shows drier air infiltrating the region in the wake of a broad trough exiting into the Atlantic from the New England region. At the surface, a mostly variable wind pattern is expected to become northwesterly as a high pressure over the Ohio River Valley breaks down into the weekend. Overnight lows will range from the lower 60s to near 70.
1206 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 (The rest of tonight) Latest surface analysis indicates high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, ridging into our area, effectively shunting the moist axis south and west of us.
Radar and satellite this morning are showing the sporadic precipitation returns stretching from northern Wisconsin through western Minnesota with the occasional strike of lightning also being observed, as a broad upper level trough and surface front slowly move through the area today.
Temperatures will likely be on the increase, although still expected to be comfortable outside with dewpoints mostly in the low to mid 50s. Some southern locations could begin to see the low 90s return by Saturday afternoon.
1135 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION High pressure building across the Northern Rockies and Montana will bring dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures through the upcoming weekend.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes Region has kept a relatively dry air mass over the region today. Dry conditions will continue through Friday with temperatures rising just a few degrees higher during the afternoon as southerly winds bring in the warmer airmass to our south. As the area of high pressure over the Great Lakes shifts eastward, a surface front and upper level trough will approach our area from the central and northern Plains on Saturday. This system will not have much moisture to work with, so will maintain the lower end (20-30%) precipitation chances.
Fair and dry in the short term under surface and upper ridging. Showers approaching the northwest zones by late Friday night but we will keep it dry as model sounding show dry wedge persisting until the low level moisture arrives Saturday morning.
We will be under the influence of high pressure today. Highs will reach the low/mid 80s which is near seasonable for this time of year.
Scattered showers will continue overnight due to the presence of the inverted low level trof. A cool front will enter west Alabama late in the day Saturday and increase lift near and east of the inverted trof axis, so best chances of rain will be along and east of I-65. The presence of the inverted trof and higher rain chances across east Alabama the next two days will result in cooler afternoon temperatures across east Alabama.
329 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Short Term/Marine High pressure over Lake Huron remains in control of our weather today. For today, though, we'll see abundant sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures than we saw yesterday. A developing cold front will track east across Wisconsin Saturday. The higher chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will arrive Saturday night.
450 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 High pressure building into the region will lead to dry and chilly temperatures tonight.
305 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Main story continues to be a cold frontal passage today with cyclonic flow aloft continuing through the weekend. A cold front continues to progress eastward this morning, with a couple rumbles of thunder along the southern portion of the line thanks to a low level jet. Just as the bulk of this precipitation begins to depart the eastern edges of the CWA this afternoon, a secondary cold front coming behind the first is expected to have the potential to fire off some thunderstorms and showers. Following this second front is a larger cutoff low to our north, expected to stay over western to central Ontario through the weekend, keeping portions of the Northland under cyclonic flow bringing back cooler temperatures and possible showery activity.
1211 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 A deep area of high pressure will pass through the northern basin of Lake Huron and the Straits tonight to portions of Ontario Friday. This will support mainly clear skies overnight which will drop nighttime lows into the low 50s in urban Detroit and 40s elsewhere. Subtle moderation in the low levels will boost daytime highs into the lower 70s. Inbound deep layer moisture will then arrive late Saturday afternoon/evening in advance of longer wavelength trough approaching from the west.
These areas are also closer to the broad longwave trough extending from the southern Rockies to the northern Plains. Mentioned upper level trough will begin to progress eastward across the central and southern Plains tonight and Saturday, with surface reflection in the form of a weak frontal boundary/northerly wind shift.
Aggregate high pressure near 1023 mb firmly entrenched across the central and eastern Great Lakes this morning ensures weak anticylonic gradient flow. Unremarkable column winds noted through the daylight period as sub- 600 mb level winds remain AOB 10 knots through the lowest third of the troposphere while a closed low tracks tracks into south-central Canada and Hurricane Lee takes a due-north trajectory east of the Mid-Atlantic. Soundings also suggest some degree of ThetaE flux off the warmer coastal waters which supports a component of midday cloud cover as diurnal heating overcomes a nocturnal near-surface inversion, translating to boundary-layer mixing to the 5 kft AGL. This effectively shears out what remains of the regional ridge axis.
(Today and tonight) A positive tilted trough slowly moving across the Four Corners region overnight continues to drive convection out ahead across eastern New Mexico and West Texas. As the upper trough lingering over the Four Corners region begins to slowly shift east and further impinge on the southern jet across West and Central Texas, a cold front will begin to push south through the Texas Panhandle reaching our northern periphery late this afternoon into the early evening. This will have obvious implications on max temperatures today and instability out ahead of the advancing cold front.
646 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 (Today and tonight) A positive tilted trough slowly moving across the Four Corners region overnight continues to drive convection out ahead across eastern New Mexico and West Texas. As the upper trough lingering over the Four Corners region begins to slowly shift east and further impinge on the southern jet across West and Central Texas, a cold front will begin to push south through the Texas Panhandle reaching our northern periphery late this afternoon into the early evening. This will have obvious implications on max temperatures today and instability out ahead of the advancing cold front.
A weak trough will cross the region today and that looks to be the main catalyst for keeping some sense of storm activity across our region through this evening. As we head into the weekend, we see ridging develop across the area and the flow turns more northerly. Heading into the second half of the weekend, we see the ridge shift to the east as a trough starts to develop off of the California coast.
640 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today.
1046 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Clear and dry, with high pressure in control through the end of the week.
In regards to the temperatures, today will be a few degrees cooler with highs ranging from the mid 80s along the immediate coast to near 103 out west. Tonight, lows will range from the lower 70s to the lower 80s areawide. Highs on Saturday will be even cooler, and generally ranging from the mid 80s to the mid 90s.
A trough currently over the Rockies/Intermountain West is slowly making its way towards us and should usher in another cold front for the weekend. A cold front approaches from the northwest Saturday night ahead of a fairly broad trough.
The large scale pattern in the short term will feature a ridge of high pressure situated over the eastern third of the CONUS. This ridge will keep dry and pleasant weather in place across eastern Kentucky today and tonight. This ridge will begin breaking down and moving off to the east late tonight into early Saturday morning, as a large trough of low pressure aloft begins moving our way out of the Great Plains. The rain will continue to gradually spread northward across the area late Saturday, as the southern trough pushes northward and the trough to our west continues moving off to the east. Tonights lows will be quite cool yet again, with min readings in the low to mid 50s expected for most locations around eastern Kentucky.
745 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Aviation High pressure over Lake Huron remains in control of our weather today. For today, though, we'll see abundant sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures than we saw yesterday. A developing cold front will track east across Wisconsin Saturday. The higher chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will arrive Saturday night.
432 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Key Messages: * Cooler today with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, but shouldn't be severe.
641 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Clear and dry, with high pressure in control through the end of the week.
A weak surface coastal trough extends down from the southern Mainland and across the easternmost waters. Meanwhile, centered across the western Gulf of Mexico is a broad anticyclone that extends to the western shores of the Florida Peninsula. Therefore rain chances will remain below normal across the Lower and Middle Keys. Light to gentle northerly breezes will prevail through the end of this week due to Hurricane Lee passing east of the Bahamas and high pressure building over the area.
Key Messages: * Cooler today with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, but shouldn't be severe.
614 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 An elongated upper trough approaching from the west-northwest amidst saturated mid-levels will support scattered to numerous showers (with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms) expanding slowly eastward across the region today. Thinking the highest chances today will be mainly west of I-135, with these chances spreading east- southeast across the rest of central and eastern Kansas tonight through Saturday morning. For Saturday afternoon-evening, a deep upper trough approaching from the north amidst afternoon heating and steepening lapse rates may support a few thunderstorms redeveloping along and east of the Flint Hills.
A broad westerly component to our flow once again with high pressure over most of Mexico and weak troughiness near the west coast. As the ridge rebuilds to our east and the trough digs a little deeper near the west coast, we could see some moisture seep back into mainly eastern areas early in the new week.
639 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 A generally dry and stable environment will exist this taf period as high pressure maintains influence across the region. Aggregate high pressure near 1023 mb firmly entrenched across the central and eastern Great Lakes this morning ensures weak anticylonic gradient flow. Unremarkable column winds noted through the daylight period as sub- 600 mb level winds remain AOB 10 knots through the lowest third of the troposphere while a closed low tracks tracks into south-central Canada and Hurricane Lee takes a due-north trajectory east of the Mid-Atlantic. Soundings also suggest some degree of ThetaE flux off the warmer coastal waters which supports a component of midday cloud cover as diurnal heating overcomes a nocturnal near-surface inversion, translating to boundary-layer mixing to the 5 kft AGL. This effectively shears out what remains of the regional ridge axis.
An upper ridge located over the West Coast was yielding a dry deeply subsident weather pattern. Otherwise, a weak upper low positioned offshore from California is forecast to gradually approach the CNTRL CA coast during the next 24-48 hours. A modest plume of midlevel subtropical moisture will subsequently surge northward ahead of the low, and when combined with a steep lapse rate environment, will favor isolated shower/thunderstorm development across the interior mountains of NWRN CA during Saturday afternoon.
635 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 (Today through Saturday Night ) The Natural State rmnd under the control of high pressure that was centered ovr the Great Lakes Region this mrng. With less cloud cover expected today, high temps wl be a few degrees warmer than on Thu, ranging fm the mid 70s to the mid 80s. This wl allow a new upper trof and sfc CDFNT to apch the FA fm the NW.
616 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Main story continues to be a cold frontal passage today with cyclonic flow aloft continuing through the weekend. A cold front continues to progress eastward this morning, with a couple rumbles of thunder along the southern portion of the line thanks to a low level jet. Just as the bulk of this precipitation begins to depart the eastern edges of the CWA this afternoon, a secondary cold front coming behind the first is expected to have the potential to fire off some thunderstorms and showers. Following this second front is a larger cutoff low to our north, expected to stay over western to central Ontario through the weekend, keeping portions of the Northland under cyclonic flow bringing back cooler temperatures and possible showery activity.
1027 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today.
IR/WV satellite imagery early this morning indicated mostly clear skies across the state with more widespread cloud coverage near the Four Corners in response to a weak trough passing along the Arizona/Utah border. Going through this weekend, the ridge of high pressure currently situated along the West Coast will continue to shift eastward, leading to height rises across the West. Temperatures across the lower deserts are expected to climb near to slightly above seasonal normals as daytime highs top out around 100- 105 degrees this weekend. Widespread Minor HeatRisk will continue but areas of Moderate HeatRisk, particularly along and west of the Lower Colorado River Valley, will exist over the next couple of days.
Upper level diffluence ahead of a positively tilted trough over Utah and Colorado will help to sustain the activity. Another round of thunderstorms will be possible overnight as the upper level trough moves into southern Colorado and the mid and and upper level winds increase. More storms will be possible over the northeast in association with vort maxes moving east from the upper level trough along with increasing upper level shear.
The highest chances look to be from Cullman County up through Jackson County this afternoon.
Convection will also follow a general diurnal pattern, with the highest coverage expected during each afternoon and lingering into the early evening hours before drying out overnight.
542 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2023 More tranquil forecast in store the next several days as an H5 ridge builds across the western US.
520 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2023 An upper ridge will be building across the region through the weekend.
949 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 High pressure through late Saturday.
647 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 High pressure building into the region will lead to dry and chilly temperatures tonight.
458 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Current surface map places cold front across eastern South Dakota into northern Nebraska. For today, upper low near Lake Winnipeg spins into the eastern Great Lakes with dry northwest flow across the forecast area. Models in good agreement with upper ridge building across the Northern Plains for the weekend, with high confidence in above average temperatures and dry weather.
Nothing different to note through Saturday as warm high pressure reigns across the Northern Rockies.
625 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 High pressure through late Saturday.
1101 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Current surface map places cold front across eastern South Dakota into northern Nebraska. For today, upper low near Lake Winnipeg spins into the eastern Great Lakes with dry northwest flow across the forecast area. Models in good agreement with upper ridge building across the Northern Plains for the weekend, with high confidence in above average temperatures and dry weather.
951 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2023 More tranquil forecast in store the next several days as an H5 ridge builds across the western US.
Winds west of this trough are northwest, while south to southwest on the eastern side. Temperatures this afternoon have remained in the lower 90s with dew points in the mid 70s.
1210 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 (The rest of today ) A disturbance in westerly flow aloft will likely result in at least some increase in mid and high cloud cover today, but precipitation chances will remain to our west as dry low level air continues to be reinforced with high pressure centered over the Great Lakes.
These features will support an increased presence of cloud cover over the area today and tomorrow which will help to keep highs in the low to mid 80s, but some spots may stay in the 70s, especially in the northeast, depending on where and when the rain initiates.
316 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Expansive subsidence will be maintained across the eastern Great Lakes tonight and Saturday as this region will lie between land falling Hurricane Lee and broad upper trough amplification enveloping the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. While radiational cooling and current dewpoints in the 40s and low 50 will support another relatively cool night, the southern gradient will be slightly stronger which should allow nighttime mins to be a few degrees warmer than previous nights (upper 40s to lower 50s). There is expected to be enough insolation through the high clouds to support mixing depths of 4-5kt feet, warranting highs into the lower to mid 70s.
Gehring (Issued 252 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023) Today through Saturday: A warmer day is in store for the area today, with highs in the mid to upper 70s, as southwest winds advect warmer air into the region. Highs tomorrow will be a touch cooler given the increased cloud cover, with low to mid 70s expected.
1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Main story continues to be a cold frontal passage today with cyclonic flow aloft continuing through the weekend. A cold front continues to progress eastward this morning, with a couple rumbles of thunder along the southern portion of the line thanks to a low level jet. Just as the bulk of this precipitation begins to depart the eastern edges of the CWA this afternoon, a secondary cold front coming behind the first is expected to have the potential to fire off some thunderstorms and showers. Following this second front is a larger cutoff low to our north, expected to stay over western to central Ontario through the weekend, keeping portions of the Northland under cyclonic flow bringing back cooler temperatures and possible showery activity.
Highs are expected to remain in the lower 70s, but after the passage of the cold front, temperatures will drop to the mid to upper 50s overnight.
For the rest of today, Showers will continue along the international border as this upper low moves east to our north. Brief UL ridging will be responsible for the WAA, and this will send our high temperatures back into the 80s to start the work week.
A ridge will slowly move east over the area during the day on Saturday and remain over the region through the weekend, bringing with it a period of dry weather. With the forecast area sitting between an upper trough over the eastern US and an upper ridge over much of the western US, winds aloft will be northerly.
205 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 High pressure will control the weather pattern for the next few days, bringing dry weather and temperatures slightly cooler than normal.
Showers along a pre-frontal trough over Wisconsin will be advancing east overnight but largely evaporating as drier air over Lower Michigan persists. Light rain reaches the ground Saturday morning as low levels finally moisten, but the steadier rain holds off until Saturday night with the approach the cold front and upper trough axis.
355 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023 19Z sfc analysis shows high pressure off to the north and east of Kentucky. To the south, an inverted trough is starting to develop through the southern Appalachians and this will play a role in moistening up the area later into the weekend. Thanks to the ample sunshine temperatures are peaking in the mid 70s north to the low 80s in the south. Meanwhile, dewpoints vary from the mid 40s north to the low 60s in the far southeast. They all depict brief ridging locally between the trough interacting with Lee off of New England and another dropping into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Saturday.