Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
627 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 A cold front will race southward across the Northern Plains tonight arriving across Kansas during the morning hours on Friday. The front will usher in much cooler air and as high pressure settles over the area late Friday night into early Sat, the first frost/freeze of the season will take place in some areas and a freeze watch will be issued for portions of central KS where confidence is highest. A mid/upper ridge will amplify across the Great Basin area and the Rockies while northwest mid/upper flow prevails downstream over the Central Plains.
626 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (This evening through Friday night) Upper level trough continues to linger over the central Plains with a cooler northwest flow in place over the Panhandles. With the earlier arrival of the front, we can expect the temperatures in the north to top out in the upper 60s, and areas to the south may manage to get into the lower 80s, given that the front may not arrive until after 4pm and peak heating will have taken place.
626 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (Through tonight ) Tonight will be the coldest night of the season to date following the passage of a weak cold front today. (Tomorrow through Thursday) A stronger cold front will sweep south across the area Friday with even colder air to follow in its wake.
Cooler weather is on the way tomorrow night with a secondary cold front pushing through in the evening. Gusty north-northeast winds will accompany the front with low temperatures dropping into the low to mid 50s for most.
525 PM MDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Northwest flow aloft to prevail across the Central Rockies to the Northern Plains as a strong upper level trough dives southeast across the Great Lakes Region. A cold front extending from the low over the Great Lakes will push south through eastern Colorado early Friday morning, before sunrise for most. The cooler air behind the front and cloud cover will produce a chilly day with highs in mid to upper 50s over northeast Colorado.
With the thermal trough offshore the coast, high temperatures today have briefly hit 10 to 15F above normal for the North Coast, and since cooled a bit due to weak onshore flow off the ocean. Inland valleys will warm into the lower to mid 90s this afternoon, about 10 to 15F above normal.
ARS Widespread showers in the MidSouth will continue through today and taper off tonight as a cold front progresses through the region. Cooler temperatures and drier conditions are expected throughout the weekend after another cold front comes through tomorrow.
949 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Showers diminish tonight as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. The cold front will usher in a much cooler airmass as we head into the weekend. ILN is in the moist flow ahead of a cold front positioned over Illinois. Though the bulk of showers associated with a prefrontal trough have already moved through, the threat for additional showers will continue tonight in convergence and lift surrounding the front. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s west to the lower 60s east. The cold front will push east across the area through the day on Friday with a few showers remaining possible across mainly our eastern areas ahead of the front. This will lead to cooler but more seasonable temperatures on Friday with daytime highs mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Key Messages: 1) Gusty WNW winds into late afternoon with the passage of a strong cold front and deep mixing 2) Slight chance for showers late afternoon into early evening, with higher gusts getting mixed down 3) Elevated cropland fire danger this afternoon in E Iowa and again south of I-80 Friday 4) Much colder with scattered showers and possibly a rumble of thunder Friday Discussion: A strong cold front is currently pushing into the western parts of the CWA. With the CAA, temperatures will struggle to reach into the low 50s NW to lower 60s east and southeast.
(The rest of tonight) Weak cold front moving into northeast OK this evening, marked by a brief uptick in wind speed and noticeably lower dew points. (Tomorrow through Thursday) A stronger cold front will sweep south across the area Friday with even colder air to follow in its wake.
741 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Dry high pressure and upper ridging remain firmly in place tonight. Then, the pattern breaks down tomorrow as a trough sets up over the eastern CONUS.
751 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 A pre-frontal trough will increase rain chances later this evening in eastern Ohio. Widespread rain chances are likely between Friday morning as a cold front advances through the Ohio River Valley. Confidence is high that cooler conditions will be observed over the weekend in the wake of the cold front. Line of showers/embedded storms is moving quickly through eastern Ohio ahead of a pre-frontal trough. Precipitation chances will increase this evening west of Pittsburgh as a pre-frontal trough enters eastern Ohio. With the cold front advancing early Friday, widespread rain showers are likely between 6am to 10am. Following the front, cooler temperatures and breezy conditions are likely as the upper trough deepens over the Northeast.
613 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (This evening through Friday) Dry conditiions are expected across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, as the cold front continues to push south, into South Texas. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s across the forecast area. (Friday night through next Thursday) Reinforcing cold front will sweep through West Central Texas Friday evening and allow for the coolest air since April to slide into the area.
(Tonight) The first in what appears to be a series of cold fronts continues to edge closer to the region this evening, but is still a ways upstream, in the mid-Miss Valley.
Strong upper ridge near the coast will move inland tonight and reach our area on Friday for clear skies and light winds.
656 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Key messages through the forecast period: 1) Secondary cold front will move through the region on Friday with cold and windy conditions expected.
732 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Showers will overspread the region this afternoon and into tonight as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. The cold front will usher in a much cooler airmass as we head into the weekend. Temperatures have already reached the high today northwest of I-71 and are expected to experience a slow drop. Showers will continue into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push east across the area through the day on Friday with a few showers remaining possible across mainly our eastern areas ahead of the front. This will lead to cooler but more seasonable temperatures on Friday with daytime highs mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
914 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Dry high pressure and upper ridging remain firmly in place tonight. Then, the pattern breaks down tomorrow as a trough sets up over the eastern CONUS.
658 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Widespread showers in the MidSouth will continue through today and taper off tonight as a cold front progresses through the region. Cooler temperatures and drier conditions are expected throughout the weekend after another cold front comes through tomorrow.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) It's a bit chilly out there this morning, so make sure to grab a coat as you head out the door! WV satellite shows a large upper level trough progressing across the Great Lakes this morning, keeping us under northwesterly flow aloft with mostly clear skies.
Tonight and Friday Forecast challenges include shower/thunderstorm chances, gusty winds and cooler temperatures. Precipitation/Storms: A band of showers and isolated will continue to move through far northeast WI and the Fox Valley late this afternoon, ahead of a cold front, where weak instability (CAPE 250-500 j/kg) is present. After a brief lull in the precipitation, showers are poised to return to NC WI late tonight, as a potent upper trough and associated secondary cold front approach. Developing NW flow will promote lake-effect showers over far NC WI/Vilas County Friday afternoon, so pops will remain high even after the front and trough axis shift southeast. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 40s, and highs on Friday should range from the middle 40s northwest to middle 50s southeast.
215 AM MDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Northwest flow aloft will continue today as eastern Utah and western Colorado remain stuck in between an amplifying ridge over the West and a deep trough over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The warming trend that we've seen the past few days marches on unabated as highs will climb a few degrees warmer than today and top off roughly 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal norms. Overnight lows will once again bottom out in the 20s and 30s up high and in the 40s and 50s in the lower elevations.
1048 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (Issued 1048 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023) The weak cold front that arrived earlier this afternoon has moved out over Lake Michigan tonight bringing an end to the chance for rain. Patterson (Issued 317 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023) Tonight through Friday night: The weak cold front arrived in south central WI this afternoon. Friday is the day the real cold front arrives.
Light rain showers ending this evening behind cold front. Later this morning around 15 to 18Z another light rain band moves in ahead of a cold front now moving into the Mississippi River Valley.
The forecast is on track this evening as the Pacific Northwest remains under the influence of a broad ridge of high pressure through the weekend. Much like last night, localized spots such as La Pine and Seneca are expected to reach near to just below freezing come sunrise Friday.
Radar detects scattered showers dotting the waters to the south and southwest of the Lower Keys, but the island chain has remained dry during the night. Temperatures are hovering in the lower 80s, with dewpoints in the upper 70s, and winds on land from the NE to E around 5 mph. Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered east of New England and nosing back into the eastern CONUS, while Tropical Storm Philippe is centered a couple hundred miles SSW of Bermuda.
1221 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 (This afternoon through Friday night) Mesoanalysis shows the cold front has cleared the Big Bend, ushering the first day of significantly cooler temperatures this fall. Friday, temperatures attempt to recover, but won't make much headway as surface flow will not veer enough to make much difference, and areas farther south, who are enjoying warmer temperatures today, will better (or worse) feel the CAA effects tomorrow.
136 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Periods of showers can be expected areawide today ahead of an approaching cold front. Much cooler temperatures, periodic scattered showers, and breezy conditions are then expected this weekend after the front crosses tonight. Showers will spread east this morning with increasing moisture and lift along a pre-frontal trough ahead of a slowly advancing front. Following the front, cooler temperatures and breezy conditions are likely as the upper trough deepens over the Northeast.
146 AM PDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Temperatures continue to rise as high pressure builds.
159 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Seasonable weather will precede a cold front that arrives with little to no rain on Saturday.
Our much anticipated cold front is still several hours away although an intrusion of drier air will spill across the Red River later this morning. This will allow the cooler air to finally spill into North Texas this evening, and we'll see temperatures fall into the mid 60s after sunset on their way into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Breezy north winds and the cooler air will mark our first significant front of the fall season. High pressure will build into North Texas on Saturday with a nice day expected.
1204 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 (The rest of tonight) Weak cold front moving into northeast OK this evening, marked by a brief uptick in wind speed and noticeably lower dew points.
147 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Dry high pressure and upper ridging remain firmly in place tonight. Then, the pattern breaks down tomorrow as a trough sets up over the eastern CONUS.
Today will be breezy and cool as a cold front moves into the region. Areas west of Highway 65 will fall to 34 to 38 degrees while areas east of Highway 65 will be a bit warmer at 37 to 41 degrees. A cold front will move through the region today and is expected to be mainly dry though a few showers of sprinkles may develop (10-15% chance), mainly for central Missouri locations. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the Middle 30s for most of the Ozarks, though areas east of Highway 65 will be warmer, in the 36 to 40 degree range where areas to the west will be as cool as the 33 to 36 degree range.
This is all along a pre-frontal trough axis extending southward from a parent low over southeastern Canada. A cold front is less evident from satellite imagery, but more evident if you look at dewpoint difference from southeastern Missouri northwest into central Missouri. This cold front models continue to move fairly quickly east overnight into Friday morning. This front eventually catches up with the pre-frontal trough axis and kicks cloud cover and shower activity into Georgia late this afternoon.
Cyclonic flow in the mid/upper levels will slowly transition to anti- cyclonic flow as high pressure slides into the Rockies. Friday into Saturday night, the upper ridge axis will slide over Idaho inducing low pressure over the plains.
After a few light showers today and a chilly night for some tonight, warmer and drier weather is expected this weekend as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds into the area. Additionally, high pressure building into the area has favored ending precipitation, earlier than originally forecast; therefore, I reduced Probability of Precipitation (POP), ushering in our mild and dry weather, earlier rather than later. This is all thanks to some northwesterly flow aloft, which is helping to usher in a cooler air mass, along with some weak instability. As we head into the end of the week, an upper level ridge will begin to push into the area on Friday, which will allow us to start warming up a bit through the weekend.
140 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Key Message: Windy today, and much cooler. Should clouds remains in place all day, and they could, we may be as cold as the lower 50s.
902 PM MDT Thu Oct 5 2023 After a few light showers today and a chilly night for some tonight, warmer and drier weather is expected this weekend as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds into the area. Additionally, high pressure building into the area has favored ending precipitation, earlier than originally forecast; therefore, I reduced Probability of Precipitation (POP), ushering in our mild and dry weather, earlier rather than later. This is all thanks to some northwesterly flow aloft, which is helping to usher in a cooler air mass, along with some weak instability. As we head into the end of the week, an upper level ridge will begin to push into the area on Friday, which will allow us to start warming up a bit through the weekend.
(Today and tonight) An upper level trough will move east across the Midwest today bringing a cold front south through the Great Plains.
1147 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 (This evening through Friday) Dry conditiions are expected across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, as the cold front continues to push south, into South Texas. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s across the forecast area.
(Today and tonight) A strong upper ridge is currently moving southeast through the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, putting the West Central Texas region under weak northwest flow aloft. Compared to the past few days, conditions today will remain rather benign with fairly light east/northeast winds and temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Mid to high level cloud cover will remain in place over the southern 1/3 of the area through the overnight hours, keeping temperatures along the I-10 corridor slightly cooler this afternoon. This will help to push a reinforcing, secondary cold front through the area overnight. A much cooler and drier airmass will follow in behind the front with dewpoints quickly dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s, allowing overnight lows to drop into the low to mid 50s.
1225 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Periods of showers can be expected areawide today ahead of an approaching cold front. Much cooler temperatures, periodic scattered showers, and breezy conditions are then expected this weekend after the front crosses tonight. Showers will spread east this morning with increasing moisture and lift along a pre-frontal trough ahead of a slowly advancing front. Following the front, cooler temperatures and breezy conditions are likely as the upper trough deepens over the Northeast.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to work inland from the Pacific through the weekend leading to cool mornings followed by afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s.
High pressure ridging noses into the Northern Rockies today and dominates through the weekend with warmer and drier conditions.
1253 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 (Tonight) The first in what appears to be a series of cold fronts continues to edge closer to the region this evening, but is still a ways upstream, in the mid-Miss Valley.
High temperatures across mainly areas north of I-40 will be tricky today given the expectation of early highs and cooler conditions in the afternoon.
A cold front will dive south with it, and increasing northerly winds are expected behind it thanks to both a tightening surface pressure gradient and momentum transfer/mixing of 25-35 kt flow above the surface.
A cooler and drier airmass is expected to work its way into the region by Friday night, which will help to bring some stability to Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. While the GFS still tries to set up a coastal trough, this trough does not last very long and the ECMWF has the area in a more drier pattern faster. Based on that, expecting isolated showers and thunderstorms to be mostly confined to the Lower Rio Grande Valley. The expected high temperatures for Saturday are in the low to mid 80s. The low temperature for Friday night into Saturday morning is expected to be mostly in the 70s, but a few places in the Northern Ranchlands could be in the upper 60s.
1216 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 (This evening through Friday night) Upper level trough continues to linger over the central Plains with a cooler northwest flow in place over the Panhandles. With the earlier arrival of the front, we can expect the temperatures in the north to top out in the upper 60s, and areas to the south may manage to get into the lower 80s, given that the front may not arrive until after 4pm and peak heating will have taken place.
The HRRR and GFS depict a light rain band coming in late tonight, but the rain reaching the surface is dependent on how dry the lowest portions of the atmosphere are.
321 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Key Messages: - Scattered sprinkles/showers possible during the morning hours as a cold front sweeps through the area.
1050 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023 Key messages through the forecast period: 1) Secondary cold front will move through the region on Friday with cold and windy conditions expected.
314 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023 A large upper level low pressure system centered over Ontario will bring active weather through the weekend.
Several cold frontal boundaries will move through the mid south through the rest of this period.
414 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Periods of showers can be expected areawide today ahead of an approaching cold front. Much cooler temperatures, periodic scattered showers, and breezy conditions are then expected this weekend after the front crosses tonight. Showers will spread east this morning with increasing moisture and lift along a pre-frontal trough ahead of a slowly advancing front. The probability of 30mph gusts is high (above 90%) in the higher terrain. Behind the front, cooler temperatures and breezy conditions are likely as the upper trough deepens over the Northeast. Precipitation chances will linger into Saturday, mostly north of Pittsburgh closer in proximity to the upper low and where northwesterly flow may prompt lake enhancement.
This activity has developed rearward of a secondary cold front and in response to the cyclonic flow of an upper-level trough over the Northern Plains. One or two snowflakes may even mix in across western MN where freezing levels are slightly lower. With the cold front passing through and mostly cloudy skies likely, highs will be near 50 for today. Breaks in the clouds appear greater across western MN and this is where frost seems more likely as temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s. Temperatures should rebound a bit during this weekend as the cool air mass within the aforementioned upper-level trough pushes east.
1201 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 A cold front will race southward across the Northern Plains tonight arriving across Kansas during the morning hours on Friday. The front will usher in much cooler air and as high pressure settles over the area late Friday night into early Sat, the first frost/freeze of the season will take place in some areas and a freeze watch will be issued for portions of central KS where confidence is highest. A mid/upper ridge will amplify across the Great Basin area and the Rockies while northwest mid/upper flow prevails downstream over the Central Plains.
Today's weather set up gradually changes as upper level ridge along the East Coast pushes offshore, and an upper level disturbance pushes into the Southeast. High pressure builds behind the aforementioned front bringing actual fall conditions to the peninsula.
1254 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Key Messages: -Winds gusting 30-40 mph Friday afternoon and relative humidity around 30% could lead to some elevated fire weather concerns Friday afternoon -Much cooler temperatures arrive Friday through the weekend. Tonight attention will turn to deep troughing pushing south into the Central Plains from Canada. Much cooler and dryer conditions will move in behind it, setting the stage for a more "fall-like" weekend.
341 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 Key Messages: * Strong northwest winds continue through the morning with gusts around 35 mph * Chance of some snow mixed with rain along and east of the Coteau this morning * Widespread frost/freeze due to below freezing temps Friday night As of 3AM CDT, winds continue to be out of the northwest gusting between 30 and 40 mph. Temperatures are in the low to mid 40s across the region. The highest concentration will be in the Sisseton area with a 30% chance of more than a tenth of an inch. With temperatures in the high 30s, there could be just a touch of snow mixed in with the rain. Temperatures will drop into the high 20s to low 30s tonight bringing widespread frost/freeze to our area.
256 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023 A large and broad trof continues to descend over the Mississippi Valley region today and keeps us in cyclonic flow aloft. Northwest flow at the sfc will be reinforced today by a second cold front coming through that will lead to breezy winds today. Highs today will be in the lower 70s as we clear out and dry out. We will be cooler tomorrow behind this second cold front with highs only in the lower 60s. Models have been trending further east with this upper level trof with the axis being over the Ohio Valley tomorrow afternoon.
These high clouds should continue for much of the period and will help highs remain in the lower to middle 80s today. A secondary surge of cooler air will arrive to the region late this afternoon and evening with stronger northerly winds. Highs Saturday will be nice and cooler, only topping out in the 70s across the area.
Expect a cool and breezy Friday as a stronger cold front moves in. Areas west of Highway 65 will plummet to 35 to 39 degrees while areas east of Highway 65 will be a bit warmer at 37 to 41 degrees. Dew points across this area range from the middle 50s to the lower 60s with air temperatures only a few degrees warmer. Cold front will continue to push through the area this afternoon bringing a beautiful end to the day.
High pressure builds in this weekend for mild and dry conditions, with lower elevation afternoon highs warming well into the 70s.