Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
117 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Any lingering snow showers and flurries across the higher elevations will taper off today as a coastal storm departs farther out to sea. High pressure will bring mainly dry weather on Thursday.
1209 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Updated to expire the High Wind Warning across southern Campbell County. Water vapor shows upper ridge axis shifting east of the Plains with advancing western CONUS trof. Some light precip will develop in the west later this afternoon as northern stream trof moves into the Northern Rockies. Cold front will finally sweep through the region tonight as northern stream pushes into the Northern Plains. Rain will change to snow this evening, with some low probabilities for a bit of freezing rain in south central SD.
Warmer today and Thursday with breezy southerly winds.
A cold front is expected to begin to move into NW parts of the fa early Thursday and continue to move across the area during the day Thursday. Breezy/gusty north winds are also expected behind the cold front.
316 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 High pressure will cross the region tonight, and be centered along the Atlantic Coast by Thursday night. Dry conditions will continue through Thursday night, before a cold front approaches the region from the west.
221 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 High pressure will build overhead by late tonight, then slide offshore Thursday.
Initially clear skies will give way to some high clouds spilling across the upper level ridge late tonight into Thursday.
An upper level trough will approach from the west tonight and move across the region on Thursday. This system will push a dryline through the area during the day, followed by a strong cold front from the north late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be warm tomorrow behind the dryline and ahead of the cold front, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
1232 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Building high pressure will return dry, quiet conditions today and tomorrow.
* Strong cold front with winds gusting up to 40 to 50 mph arrives tonight and Thursday morning. An upper level trough is over the mountains across the western part of the country. A strong cold front will push into Nebraska and Kansas tonight and Thursday morning as the upper trough begins to move over the region. The timing of this transition will depend on how fast the front is and how quickly the temperatures drop to freezing. The high temperature for the day will occur around midnight with temperatures dropping through the morning and remaining in the 20s and 30s through the afternoon.
338 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Discussion/Marine -- Rain Thursday Night -- Deep southwesterly moisture transport and strengthening upper-level jet dynamics ahead of a developing cyclone will practically guarantee rain Thursday night. 75 inch rainfall for many locations, perhaps staying on the low side of that range toward Jackson.
As a departing upper level trough continues to track east this afternoon, scattered snow showers with embedded pockets of freezing rain continue across the Upper Snake Plain, Swan Valley, and Teton Valley region as winds begin to subside areawide. As this trough departs into Wyoming tonight, mostly clear skies return as winds quiet down with strongest 700 mb winds shifting southeast into Utah. Lingering breezy winds will exist north of Dubois up towards Monida Abundant high pressure streams in from the west courtesy of an upper level ridge axis shifting overhead leading to plenty of sunshine, quiet winds, and afternoon highs feeling slightly cooler in the 30s to low 40s.
136 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Sub-freezing temperatures tonight into Thursday morning.
Temperatures will cool off about 5 degrees compared to today as cooler air filters in behind the exiting system, which will put most locations about 8-10 degrees below normal for this time of the year.
1252 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Any lingering snow showers and flurries across the higher elevations will taper off today as a coastal storm departs farther out to sea. High pressure will bring mainly dry weather on Thursday.
146 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023 With a trough over the western CONUS, upper flow over the northern plains is southwesterly. At the surface, low pressure sits over northeastern WY, and a frontal boundary across the CWA is separating colder air to the north (temps in the 30s/40s) from warmer air to the south (temps in the 50s/60s). As the upper trough crosses the northern plains Thurs, lingering moisture and steep lapse rates will allow for some light snow showers Thursday afternoon and overnight. Temperatures Thursday and into the weekend will be noticeably cooler, with highs in the 20s and 30s.
338 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather tonight through Thursday.
The upper trough currently over California/Nevada will continue pushing eastward through the night before reaching eastern New Mexico by sunrise. Models are mostly dry overnight as the upper trough approaches from the west. A cold front will surge southward from the Northern Plains tomorrow as the axis of the upper trough begins to approach the FA. Ultimately the timing of the front will determine high temps for the afternoon with an earlier FROPA resulting in cooler highs. Some precip does appear to be possible, but the best chances will likely be limited to our northern zones along the passing cold front. Conditions will continue to be dry ahead of the approaching cold front thanks to downsloping winds with little to no moisture available for shower development.
201 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Sub-freezing temperatures tonight into Thursday morning.
In addition, the trough that will push the aforementioned stationary front out of the CWA will pivot through the Keys this afternoon.
Snow showers could quickly produce a burst of moderate snow, however with more mild temperatures and warmer road surface temperatures through this evening, travel impacts are expected to be minimal.
Currently we are see a weak trough pushing through the state. For the end of the week high pressure and cooler weather will remain across the state.
(Tonight) High pressure remains dominant over the southeastern US, keeping a cooler but dry airmass in place. Sunny skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to rise into the low to mid 50s across the area this afternoon, feeling a bit more like spring than the past couple of days. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer tonight, but some frost/freeze potential will still exist. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s over NW AL to lower 30s in the higher terrain of NE AL.
We should remain above freezing tonight with another warmer but wet day expected tomorrow. A few stronger thunderstorms could approach east Arkansas tomorrow night ahead of another cold front.
The high that brought us some very cold air this morning will slip southeastward into the Carolinas, and some high cloud will be moving in from the west ahead of the next system, especially toward morning. So, tonight won't be as cold as last night, though there may be a fairly large range in low temperatures depending on how aggressive the high clouds are. Tomorrow SSW winds will increase as we get squeezed between the high to our southeast and a low crossing the Midwest. Gusts of 20-30mph can be expected and will bring in much warmer air, with afternoon highs from the upper 50s in southern Indiana to the mid 60s near the Tennessee border.
105 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 High pressure provides dry conditions today through much of Thursday. Rain chances return on Thursday night with the arrival of another low pressure system and cold front. Low level flow is light and variable through the morning as the high pressure slowly drifts south of the region. Low pressure advances eastward into the Midwest Wednesday evening, resulting in southerly flow through the overnight hours. Overnight temperatures are near normals for area climate sites, but can expect mid to upper 20s in the climatologically cooler locations despite the upper level clouds. Temperatures quickly warm up Thursday morning as low level flow accelerates ahead of the approaching low pressure. Southerly flow and moisture convergence ahead of an approaching cold front will lead to widespread rain across our area Thursday night.
(This evening through Thursday) Key Messages: 1) Below freezing temperatures expected for most locations again tonight. Discussion: Currently sunny and quiet weather this afternoon as our area sits under high pressure that's building. With the increased sunlight and warmer temperatures today the overnight lows shouldn't drop down quiet as low as we've seen the past couple of nights. We'll still see widespread sub-freezing temperatures, but the duration will be shorter. Some of the counties in southeast TN and along the Cumberland Plateau could stay above freezing tonight, but will still drop into the mid to lower 30s.
1252 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Cool and dry conditions remain in place for the rest of the day until a cold front approaches tomorrow morning.
Temperatures are currently ranging from the mid 30s to the lower 40s with some locations over far inland southwest and south central Alabama near freezing. Lighter winds and good solar insolation will allow temperatures to warm into the lower to middle 60s. As we head into tonight, upper ridging moves over the Southeast. This upper ridge quickly slides east through Thursday. Temperatures will be a bit warmer as the return flow sets up with highs in the lower to middle 70s.
Quiet conditions will persist through tonight with overnight temperatures relatively warmer compared to last night. Forecast lows are at least a few degrees above freezing although a few locations along the Plateau (particularly Cumberland and Fentress counties) may dip just below freezing. Will forgo issuing any freeze highlights for tonight as freezing temperatures are not expected to be that widespread. Surface winds will become southerly and breezy in advance of this system, and WAA will lead to a warmer day as forecast high temperatures reach into the 60's for most. A change in the weather pattern is still on track, however, beginning late Thursday as an upper-level trough tracks northeast over the Midwest and an associated cold front approaches the Mississippi River.
(Tonight through Wednesday) As the low level jet strengthens tonight into Thursday morning, scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely develop in the stronger WAA regime. Main severe threat will be Thursday afternoon through the early evening hours as upper level storm system and accompanying cold front sweeps through the area. Low level moisture will continue to surge north tonight into Thursday with forecast dew-points climbing into the lower 60s across far southeast Oklahoma by late afternoon. As cold front and dry line move into south-central Oklahoma, near the Red River Thursday afternoon, a few discrete supercells will be possible near the triple point. Line of storms will be increasingly undercut as cold front sweeps through the remainder of the area by mid evening with the severe threat ending.
5 to 3 inches from roughly the Highway 2 corridor to the Highway 200 corridor, tapering to around an inch northward to the International Border and tapering off to the south around an inch along the I-94 corridor and less than an inch over the southern JRV. After this current system exits to the east, a large upper level trough develops over the central and eastern U.
338 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 High pressure will persist over the area through Thursday afternoon before shifting off the East Coast.
Its low pressure responsible will tighten the gradient as it bumps into still strong and standing high pressure to our east, offering up near/to Advisory level (south) winds by tmrw afternoon-evening. A chilly and breezy end to the week is in store as a sfc cold front moves east of the FA.
Clouds will be on the increase over the next several hours as a cold front approaches the area.
Outside of the mountains, isolated slippery travel can be expected from refreezing of wet surfaces from snow showers early today. JW As expected as the main trough axis moves through, there have been scattered snow showers across much of southern Montana west of Rosebud County this morning and into early afternoon. All of this activity will continue to push east as the trough continues moving east through the night. Additional snow amounts in the lower elevations will likely be an inch or less. However, a little lingering energy behind the trough could lead to some isolated showers in the southeast during the afternoon tomorrow. Temperatures will be fairly similar today, but a few degrees cooler.
Will still be watching for the quality of moisture return given the surface ridging that still extends into the northern and central Gulf of Mexico, and the low dewpoints across east Texas. A cold front is expected to begin to move into NW parts of the fa early Thursday and continue to move across the area during the day Thursday. Breezy/gusty north winds are also expected behind the cold front.
324 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023 As expected as the main trough axis moves through, there have been scattered snow showers across much of southern Montana west of Rosebud County this morning and into early afternoon. All of this activity will continue to push east as the trough continues moving east through the night. Additional snow amounts in the lower elevations will likely be an inch or less. However, a little lingering energy behind the trough could lead to some isolated showers in the southeast during the afternoon tomorrow. Temperatures will be fairly similar today, but a few degrees cooler.
629 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 A tightening pressure gradient over the region kept strong south winds across the area today, while ridging continued overhead. A western CONUS trough will continue to push east tonight and amplify the surface pressure gradient across the region. Toward tomorrow morning, with a strong pressure gradient in place, expect south winds to continue to bring gusts of 45+ mph ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12z tomorrow morning, a strong cold front will begin traversing through the CWA beginning in north central KS. Behind the cold front, equally as strong, northerly winds/gusts are expected. A brief lull in wind speeds can be expected ahead of the cold front at times but did not warrant getting too fancy with the headlines.
Expect warmer and drier conditions for the remainder of the week as high pressure builds across the region.
706 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Key Messages: 1) Below freezing temperatures expected for most locations again tonight. Discussion: Currently sunny and quiet weather this afternoon as our area sits under high pressure that's building. With the increased sunlight and warmer temperatures today the overnight lows shouldn't drop down quiet as low as we've seen the past couple of nights. We'll still see widespread sub-freezing temperatures, but the duration will be shorter. Some of the counties in southeast TN and along the Cumberland Plateau could stay above freezing tonight, but will still drop into the mid to lower 30s.
402 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 A tightening pressure gradient over the region kept strong south winds across the area today, while ridging continued overhead. A western CONUS trough will continue to push east tonight and amplify the surface pressure gradient across the region. Toward tomorrow morning, with a strong pressure gradient in place, expect south winds to continue to bring gusts of 45+ mph ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12z tomorrow morning, a strong cold front will begin traversing through the CWA beginning in north central KS. Behind the cold front, equally as strong, northerly winds/gusts are expected. A brief lull in wind speeds can be expected ahead of the cold front at times but did not warrant getting too fancy with the headlines.
817 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Mostly clear skies behind today's short wave as high pressure builds pushing much drier conditions into the Peninsula.
742 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Sub-freezing temperatures tonight into Thursday morning.
848 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Added in a freezing drizzle mention earlier under the low stratus ahead of the onset of snow this evening based on webcams and obs. Models are beginning to move the low pressure system on Thursday back to the west. A light glaze of ice due to light freezing rain is possible in far western counties (Corson, Campbell, maybe McPherson). This possibility of freezing rain and sleet moves southeast towards the Watertown area through the evening and overnight hours. The snow moves in behind this line of freezing rain and sleet.
526 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023 With a trough over the western CONUS, upper flow over the northern plains is southwesterly. At the surface, low pressure sits over northeastern WY, and a frontal boundary across the CWA is separating colder air to the north (temps in the 30s/40s) from warmer air to the south (temps in the 50s/60s). As the upper trough crosses the northern plains Thurs, lingering moisture and steep lapse rates will allow for some light snow showers Thursday afternoon and overnight. Temperatures Thursday and into the weekend will be noticeably cooler, with highs in the 20s and 30s.
838 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 The storm off the coast will move farther away and allow high pressure to drift by to our south tonight and early Thursday.
Post frontal showers remain possible this afternoon before an upper ridge will build into the area tonight through late week.
501 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 The storm off the coast will move farther away and allow high pressure to drift by to our south tonight and early Thursday.
905 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Sub-freezing temperatures tonight into Thursday morning.
Mostly clear skies as an area of high pressure located across the southeastern US shifts further southeast towards the Carolina coast overnight.
923 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 High pressure will build overhead by late tonight, then slide offshore Thursday.
607 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Tonight will be a few degrees colder than last, with clear skies and calm winds, radiational cooling will promote temperatures dropping just at or below freezing in inland southeast Georgia.
High pressure covers Nevada for the next couple of days for sunny but cool conditions.
557 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 (Tonight) High pressure remains dominant over the southeastern US, keeping a cooler but dry airmass in place. Sunny skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to rise into the low to mid 50s across the area this afternoon, feeling a bit more like spring than the past couple of days. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer tonight, but some frost/freeze potential will still exist. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s over NW AL to lower 30s in the higher terrain of NE AL.
Temps will range from the mid-to-upper 30s in the North Bay valleys and parts of the coastal Monterey Bay area to the lower 40s elsewhere including the SF Bay area.
With the passage of the cold front, highs will be a few degrees lower tomorrow compared to today. Temperatures will cool off about 5 degrees compared to today as cooler air filters in behind the exiting system, which will put most locations about 8-10 degrees below normal for this time of the year.
800 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 The storm off the coast will move farther away and allow high pressure to drift by to our south tonight and early Thursday.
- Cold front moves through tomorrow afternoon bringing showers.
With cloud coverage increasing this afternoon, expect overcast skies by tonight as a low pressure system approaches from the Plains. This carves out a deep trough over the ern U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the eastern U. with a ridge over the western U. Ridging moves into the Rockies 12z Mon. Troughing moves onto the west coast 12z Tue and into the Rockies 12z Wed. LLWS is expected at KIWD and KSAW later tonight as the warm sector ahead of the approaching low pressure system moves over us.
However, this will still place low temperatures across Jackson and DeKalb Counties in northeast Alabama at or just below the freezing mark and a Freeze Warning is again in effect for those two counties. Elsewhere, lows should remain just above the freezing mark in the mid 30s, but it will still be cool enough to have areas of frost and for this reason a Frost Advisory is in effect as well.
Thursday: A low chance of snow is possible along the MT/ND border as the trough remains over ND. However, weak ridging in central MT will lead to minimal accumulations. As northwest winds increase to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon, blowing snow from the existing snowpack will be of more concern than the low chance of snowfall.
743 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 High pressure will persist over the area through Thursday afternoon before shifting off the East Coast.
728 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Aviation -- Rain Thursday Night -- Deep southwesterly moisture transport and strengthening upper-level jet dynamics ahead of a developing cyclone will practically guarantee rain Thursday night. 75 inch rainfall for many locations, perhaps staying on the low side of that range toward Jackson.
Isolated thunderstorms for the next several hours in the San Bernardino mountains and the high deserts. Dry and a little warmer for Thursday.
125 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions expected through the 06Z TAF period as high pressure near to just north of the regional terminals moves offshore to the east after sunrise under sunny skies. Some moisture return in the low and mid levels will create a few mid level clouds by the late afternoon to early evening time frame, roughly close to 00Z that will drift from south to north over the coastal TAF sites. Calm winds inland and light a variable at the coast will become east to southeasterly 6-10 knots after 14-15Z as the high moves off of the south Carolina/Georgia coast with a few thin cirrus above. The high will be east of the area tonight with more southerly winds 4-8 knots.
The more sheltered valleys are reporting in the upper 20s, with low to mid 30s occurring in broader valleys, while ridgetops are still mainly north of 40 degrees. Initially clear skies will give way to some high clouds spilling across the upper level ridge late tonight into Thursday.
254 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Latest upper air analysis shows a trough over the Inter-Mountain West. Ahead of the trough water vapor imagery showed disorganized areas of saturated air moving northward in the flow over the Plains. At the surface a strong cold front had moved through the forecast area. However the cooler air moving in to the northwest had caused the rain to change to snow. Today the cold front will be southeast of the forecast area. This should generate precipitation across the forecast area ahead of the trough axis.
Light snow from a passing cold front is currently in the process of diminishing, although still lingers for some areas. A stout upper level low will then slide in from Canada today, bringing cold air more breezy winds and scattered light snow. Temperatures today will be cooler than recent days, and generally in the teens and 20s. Tonight, the mentioned upper low will continue to progress across the region. This upper low will reinforce the cold air across the region.
(Today and Tonight) Active weather day expected ahead of a cold front passing this afternoon and evening. Strong moisture advection is underway with showers and a few storms likely to develop this morning well in advance of the cold front. These storms will quickly spread NE in advance of the cold front and pose a risk of severe weather by early afternoon across portions of E OK and eventually into western AR. Conditions in proximity to the developing triple point are likely to become highly favorable for severe weather and these conditions may spread into portions of far SE OK before the surging cold front displaces the airmass. The passing cold front will end the severe weather threat by early evening across western AR and SE OK.
251 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Very light freezing drizzle has been observed across many locations of the CWA this evening/early overnight.