Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1249 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (Today through Thursday afternoon) The subtropical ridge has centered itself across far west TX, northern Mexico, and southern NM and will remain parked there through the short term period with very little change in strength/heights. High temperatures today look to be a couple degrees "cooler" on average compared to yesterday, but it will still be hot enough across the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and Big Bend to warrant another Heat Advisory for this area. Temperatures on Thursday appear to trend slightly warmer, and another Heat Advisory seems plausible for portions of the CWA.
The trough responsible for the deep marine layer will lift northeast through Thursday. It will be replaced by a ridge of high pressure from the east that will bring warmer days and a shallower marine layer this weekend.
339 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 A cold front ahead of an upper level trough will bring a few showers and storms to the Ohio Valley this evening before cooler air arrives behind the front overnight into Thursday. While most of the convective-allowing models are generally dry ahead of cold frontal passage tonight. Cooler air starts to infiltrate the region behind the front toward morning.
/NF/ Hi-res guidance continue to highlight a cold front digging south towards the region.
The ridge will exit for Thursday lending to continued cooler temperatures into the weekend.
258 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 A ridge of high pressure aloft and at the surface will continue east across the region this afternoon.
An upper ridge is centered over southern New Mexico with an upper trough over the eastern Pacific. Highs today are likely to be the same or a degree warmer than yesterday. Model ensembles agree with the upper ridge shifting west over southern California this weekend.
KEY MESSAGES: - Much cooler temperatures today compared to earlier this week as well as more cloud cover and breezy winds. The cold front currently overhead will progress eastward through the morning hours, leaving cool temperatures, breezy winds, and cloudy skies in its wake.
1124 AM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Water vapor shows rather flat upper ridge over the western CONUS with distinct short wave moving east across western WY. At the surface, ridge covers the western Dakotas with chilly early morning temps down into the 40s, with some 30s in the Black Hills. For Thursday, upper ridge will amplify through the Rockies, with a weak trof crossing the Northern Plains. A narrow corridor of MLCAPE to around 1000J/kg expected to develop near and east of the Black Hills along/ahead of a surface trof. Guidance is trending "wetter" with this trof, although moisture should be mostly lacking and most areas will remain dry. Smoke will likely linger through the morning, but the passage of the surface trof should help to improve air quality somewhat during the afternoon.
(Tonight)with A cold front will continue to progress southeast from western and middle Tennessee toward the Tennessee Valley region of northern Alabama. Ahead of the cold front we've destabilized with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg per the latest SPC mesoanalysis page and surface observations showing temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
916 AM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Satellite imagery shows a ridge over the area and mostly clear skies this morning. Otherwise, today will be warm with highs in the low to mid 80s as the ridge axis shifts east and southwesterly flow develops. Thursday will be warm once again with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue across north Mississippi through this evening but slightly cooler and drier air will settle over the region behind a cold front.
Satellite imagery early this afternoon is already showing this system approaching from the west, along with a second low pressure circulation off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Although instability is weak, an associated cold front, favorable position of an upper level jet streak, and moisture from the southwest should be enough to fuel showers and a possibly some thunder this afternoon and overnight.
343 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 A ridge of high pressure aloft and at the surface will continue east across the region this afternoon.
1237 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (Today through Thursday Night) Today an upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest should drift into the western half of the state. Influence from the aforementioned upper level ridge grows heading into Thursday, with shower/storm activity looking to become more isolated.
This afternoon/Tonight: A cold front has swept through the region yesterday and the relief from the heat is quite apparent this afternoon.
(This evening through Thursday night) The area of 500mb high pressure currently centered over El Paso is gradually working its way back to the northeast, which will incite a noticeable impact on our temperatures tomorrow. For today however, temps are remaining cooler than forecast behind yesterday's front, keeping our highs a few degrees lower than previously forecast. Observed overnight lows this morning were also about 5 degrees cooler than forecast in the SW TX Panhandle. Thursday will be the hottest day of the week by far as the upper high regains influence over the area.
1251 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (Today through Thursday night) Model agreement continues to project the rebuilding of the 500mb high pressure center early this morning. Despite the return of the high, temperatures are still recovering from the weak cold frontal boundary that move through yesterday. Expect afternoon high temperatures to still sit in the high 80s to low 90s for the day. Heading into the tomorrow, the high pressure center will continue to build which will keep hot and dry conditions over the Panhandles for yet another day.
730 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase overnight and into tomorrow afternoon as slow moving cold front advances through the Ohio River Valley.
445 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023 GOES-16 satellite imagery reveals hardly a cloud in the sky across eastern Utah and western Colorado this afternoon with high pressure in control. with the high here in Grand Junction reaching 91F so far (5 degrees above normal).
An upper trough moving across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday will bring a slight chance (less than 20 percent) of afternoon showers and thunderstorms to s-central Idaho and the West Central Mountains.
852 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 As of 830 PM CDT, temperatures continue to gradually fall into the lower 80s ahead of the frontal boundary and the upper 70s behind the front and associated convection. We will see low to mid 90s tomorrow in the wake of some rain today and cooler soils in S AR. And some morning lows will be near record territory as well with a wide range of 70s tomorrow, but then a little cooler overnight Thursday.
550 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 High pressure will persist across the region through tomorrow.
629 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 The latest surface analysis is showing that the cold front extended from low pressure over the western Great Lakes southward to just east and southeast of the CWA into central Arkansas with high pressure centered over Nebraska. An extensive area of stratus and stratocumulus that is rotating around the south side of an upper trough currently over Great Lakes is expected to decrease over the area as the trough moves off to the east this evening. Latest runs of the HREF/GFS/NAM does show northwesterly upper flow setting up over the area the next 36 hours as the upper trough moves off to the east, but with the atmosphere remains dry through a deep layer will keep the forecast dry.
654 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will continue across north Mississippi through this evening but slightly cooler and drier air will settle over the region behind a cold front.
745 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 A ridge of high pressure aloft will shift east and offshore tonight.
941 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue overnight and into Thursday afternoon as slow moving cold front advances through the Ohio River Valley.
939 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue overnight and into Thursday afternoon as slow moving cold front advances through the Ohio River Valley.
950 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 A ridge of high pressure aloft will shift east and offshore tonight.
645 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (Tonight)with A cold front will continue to progress southeast from western and middle Tennessee toward the Tennessee Valley region of northern Alabama. Ahead of the cold front we've destabilized with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg per the latest SPC mesoanalysis page and surface observations showing temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
640 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (This evening through Thursday night) The area of 500mb high pressure currently centered over El Paso is gradually working its way back to the northeast, which will incite a noticeable impact on our temperatures tomorrow. For today however, temps are remaining cooler than forecast behind yesterday's front, keeping our highs a few degrees lower than previously forecast. Observed overnight lows this morning were also about 5 degrees cooler than forecast in the SW TX Panhandle. Thursday will be the hottest day of the week by far as the upper high regains influence over the area.
853 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 High pressure will persist across the region through tomorrow.
This troughing action will have caused the weak ridge/thermal trough to dissipate, keeping conditions seasonable for the next several days.
620 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Cooler and dry weather is expected the next several days behind today's cold front.
Breezy northerly winds will serve to bring in temperatures in the lower 50s tonight, and in the mid-50s near the lakeshore. Going into Thursday night, expect lows to range from the lower 40s in the north to the lower 50s in th esouth and near the lakeshore.
(The rest of tonight) Latest surface analysis indicates the cold front has pushed into swrn Arkansas and far nern Texas. A short wave trough was evident in water vapor imagery over ern Kansas and nrn Missouri, translating southeastward.
629 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 (The rest of this afternoon and Tonight) A slow moving cold front is currently still sitting across far southeast Oklahoma this afternoon, with hot and humid conditions still ongoing along the Red River. Behind the front, cooler and drier air is filtering into the region with high topping out mostly in the mid 80s to near 90 this afternoon, along with lower humidity making it feel pleasant north of the frontal boundary.
148 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2023 Water vapor shows northern stream trof shifting into the Northern Plains with southern stream closed low over AZ. At the surface, cold front is quickly moving into central SD. For today, lingering light snow in our southern zones will quickly exit the area this morning, with gusty northwest winds behind the cold front gradually relaxing by this afternoon.
918 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2023 Current water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper low dipping into the Desert Southwest this evening. With clouds coming in, there's a good chance that was the low there. With the clouds coming in a bit earlier, lows may end up being a degree or two warmer than previously forecast. Models show an upper low circulation, now over the desert southwest, to move southeastward into southern Arizona to be just west of El Paso by 00Z Monday late day.
242 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2023 Key Messages: - Frequent, Light Precipitation Chances Through New Week Into Weekend - Turning Colder Into the Weekend Precipitation Chances Tonight: GOES East water vapor satellite imagery shows a pronounced trough- ridge-trough wave pattern from the Ohio River Valley across the forecast area into southern Saskatchewan. The ridge has been progressively sagging to the southeast across the forecast area overnight, resulting in light and variable winds up to 850mb according to Vad Wind Profiles.
Strong winds will occur in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada through this afternoon. Fog is possible the next few mornings in the San Joaquin Valley with overnight lows around freezing.
118 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023 Scattered snow showers will be observed overnight as an upper level trough moves through the area. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region on Monday. A low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley during the middle part of the week, bringing the next chance for precipitation. The best coverage of snow showers will occur across our northern counties closer to the track of the low. Mid level trough axis and any lingering pcpn will shift east of the area through Monday morning. Will lower temps a bit in areas with snow cover with highs on Monday in the low to mid 30s.
AM CST Mon Jan 23 2023 Key Messages: - Frequent, Light Precipitation Chances Through New Week Into Weekend - Turning Colder Into the Weekend Precipitation Chances Tonight: GOES East water vapor satellite imagery shows a pronounced trough- ridge-trough wave pattern from the Ohio River Valley across the forecast area into southern Saskatchewan. The ridge has been progressively sagging to the southeast across the forecast area overnight, resulting in light and variable winds up to 850mb according to Vad Wind Profiles.
1000 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2023 A robust cutoff upper-level low pressure deepens and drops southward across Utah this afternoon. Forcing with this system will mostly miss Wyoming to the west and south, but the open trough to the north will still provide an area of broad lift across the state as a weak cold front pushes southward. Expect some gusty north winds to accompany the snow for northern Johnson County and Sweetwater County as the cold front moves through this evening and overnight. Despite the cold front, basins east of the Divide are expected to be warmer than last night, as mixing and cloud cover will keep cold pools from forming. Monday will only be a few degrees cooler than today, given the incoming air mass has maritime origins.
1137 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 A trough is positioned from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes and the southern Mississippi River Valley.
1035 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 (This evening through Monday) An upper ridge starts building in tonight along with weak high pressure down at the surface. Although some high cloudiness expected to dirty up the ridge across western Oklahoma by mid- morning, clear night skies early on combined with light to calm surface winds will favor strong radiational cooling with temperatures dropping well below freezing (20s) areawide tonight. Our flow aloft shifts out of the southwest Monday afternoon with a deepening trough digging across the U.
304 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023 Discussion/Marine - Light snow tonight - An upper level system and cold front moving across the northern Great Lakes region tonight will bring a brief period of lake enhanced synoptic light snow this evening/overnight.
540 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2023 (Today through Tuesday) A weak cold front has pushed through Central Alabama early this morning with west winds at 5-10 mph. Wrap around moisture behind the exiting low pressure system will keep low clouds in the area through the morning hours. Clear skies and calm winds tonight will allow temperatures to fall below freezing in most areas.
As winds shift to a more northwesterly direction, cooler air will then filter in, leading to temperatures dropping throughout the day. 1", generally along and north of the Highway 200 corridor, although probabilities for exceeding an inch are only in the 10-15% range.
(Today through Tuesday night) Upper level low spinning near the lower Colorado River Valley will continue to move southeast to far southeast Arizona by late this evening. This low is then expected to move just south of El Paso by early Tuesday morning with lots of diffluence across the Panhandles. After midnight to about 6 am the low levels will start to wet bulb as precipitation works its way from the top down. As the upper low starts to move east to just south of Midland and then northeast to just west of Ft. The latest models have trended just slightly farther to the north with the upper low track, so expected snowfall amounts have come up some. The advisory could be expanded a little farther northward if the upper level low looks like it will move a little farther north.
By sunrise, the strong mid-level cyclone will be in the vicinity of El Paso or northern Chihuahua, but precipitation will likely begin moving into our southwestern zones before sunrise Tuesday morning.
456 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2023 Water vapor imagery showing the main closed low still digging southward across west central Arizona. Ahead of the low across Colorado, there exists an extensive area of clouds around the 5000ft agl level over the plains and a swath of higher clouds above that towards the east. Radar beginning to show some increase in echoes over the higher foothills with a few flurries occurring per web cams. However, low level moisture remains in place across the plains at least through this evening then a bit better clearing towards sunup Tuesday with the approaching northern branch trof axis.
Offshore flow will persist over the region early this week with building high pressure by mid-to-late week resulting in a gradual warming trend. Speaking of winds, strong and gusty winds persist in the region's higher peaks and ridges while they have diminished in the lower elevations. A gradual warming trend will then get underway through mid-to-late week as high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds inland over central California. Forecast confidence lowers greatly heading into the upcoming weekend as deterministic runs of the ECMWF and CMC indicate the potential for light precipitation in response to troughing developing over the West. Meanwhile, the GFS maintains dry conditions through the next 7 days with ridging over the eastern Pacific remaining in place.
Cooler temperatures will settle in for the later half of the week. Today: Overnight, upper ridging has started to shift into the are after yesterday's low shifts into the eastern US. This low will dig deep into the southern US before eventually tracking though southern Missouri and northern Arkansas Tuesday night. As it moves toward our are it will merge back with broader troughing swinging in from central Canada.
The strongest surface gradient (around 10 mbs from Reno to the Sierra foothills/mid- slopes) lies across the northern Sierra where fairly widespread gusts of 40-60+ mph are occurring across the exposed higher elevation ridges and near gaps in terrain. Dry weather and gradually milder temperatures are expected this week as the strong ridge over the eastern Pacific keeps the storm track well to our north. While the strongest winds will occur today in the wake of the weekend "slider" digging into the Southwest, occasional north to east breezes can be expected through the week as weaker systems slide over the ridge.
The gradient tightens this afternoon as high pressure moves across the lower MS Valley and low pressure tracking north of Minnesota. Highs will be in the upper 20s north to the upper 30s south, but it will feel much cooler due to the wind. Tonight: Skies become cloudy again as an upper level trough swings across the upper Midwest.
641 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023 Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will end this morning although slippery secondary roads and icy surfaces will persist for some time.
We'll start off this morning with mainly zonal flow at 500mb, with a low north of Hudson Bay extending a trough through Manitoba and into ND and far eastern MT. A series of embedded troughs will move through the area this morning and Tuesday. At the surface we already have the initial trough across northeastern SN through southwestern SD, on it's way out. A wintry mix of snow or light freezing drizzle may be possible across the the mid slopes to western half of the Prairie Coteau.
Upper level ridging continues to move overhead in between a mid/upper level trough to our east across the Ohio River valley and another to our southwest across southern AZ. Dry conditions are expected over the next couple of days and we continue to lean slightly cooler than guidance for highs as potential cloud cover inhibits full warmimg.
Gusty north winds will remain in place today in the wake of a passing cold front.
The gusts will be mainly in the 20s to 30s mph range with an occasional stronger gusts into the low 40s.
Upper level ridging continues to move overhead in between a mid/upper level trough to our east across the Ohio River valley and another to our southwest across southern AZ. Dry conditions are expected over the next couple of days and we continue to lean slightly cooler than guidance for highs as potential cloud cover inhibits full warming.
In the higher elevations of far north GA, residual/shallow moisture within northwest flow could support a few rain/snow showers through mid morning, but any accumulations and impacts will be very minimal. As high pressure builds in from the west, winds will relax quickly after sunset this evening with the rest of the "short term" looking rather quiet, ahead of next storm system that will be gathering strength as it approaches the ArkLaTex region late Tuesday. Look for temps to rebound about 5-8F deg tomorrow /Tuesday/ as southerly flow becomes more pronounced beneath a weak upr ridge over the SE region.
545 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023 Aviation - Light snow tonight - An upper level system and cold front moving across the northern Great Lakes region tonight will bring a brief period of lake enhanced synoptic light snow this evening/overnight.
704 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023 (12Z TAFS) VFR/MVFR conditions expected over the next few hours as a cold front continues to push through SW FL. Upper level trough will continue to lift to the northeast over Eastern US. The associated cold front; currently located along the I-4 corridor, will continue to move southward over the Florida Peninsula today along with cloudiness, showers, and a few thunderstorms possible this morning across Central and Southwest Florida. Breezy northerly wind flow will be present today in the wake of the cold front. This afternoon and tonight, the post frontal high pressure will build and dominate over the region with notably lower temperatures developing as some cooler and drier air will settle areawide. Rain-free conditions should prevail while the high pressure dominates.
A well defined cold front presently across Ft. Expect mostly cloudy skies to decrease in coverage from the northwest to southeast throughout the day as high pressure quickly builds in behind the front across the southeastern CONUS. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the front with the mid 60s to low 70s generally for highs with the exception of Martin county where highs are forecast to reach the mid to upper 70s. Lows overnight will drop to the low 40s to near 50 degrees across the majority of central Florida with the mid 50s to near 60 degrees across the Treasure Coast.
Lift wanes tonight as the low center moves to the Texas Panhandle causing showers to diminish across the south overnight. However, a weak short wave trough in the northwest flow settling over the region behind the storm is expected to bring some light scattered snow showers to the eastern Uinta Mountains late tonight.
Associated cold front will move through Tuesday afternoon with a brief period of breezy conditions.
445 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2023 Upper low was located over the Southwest CONUS, wedged between upper ridges off the Pacific Coast and Great Plains.