Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Despite having fairly impressive upper dynamics, it had little moisture to work with, and had only managed to produce light snow and freezing drizzle outside of the lake enhanced snow over east central Wisconsin. Light snow mixed with freezing drizzle expected elsewhere this morning with a half inch or less of accumulation. Skies should clear tonight as an upper ridge edges in from the northern Plains.
A line of showers is developing out ahead of this low across eastern Washington. Showers will shift eastward along the ID/MT border by the late morning to early afternoon hours as the trough progresses towards northwest Montana. The trough will pass over northwest Montana this evening into early Monday morning, with shower activity focusing north of the Interstate 90 corridor. A wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain is possible across valley areas this evening as snow levels fall from 4,000 feet to 2,500 feet by Monday morning. The Flathead Valley sounds out as a possible impact area, where probabilities for freezing rain climb to 20 percent.
- High temperatures will be around to below freezing until mid week - still well above normal. While temperatures will be a little cooler than they have been, we will still be well above normal (greater than 10 degrees for some areas) until the mid week, when temperatures will drop to closer to normal (within 5 degrees). This cool down will be due to an upper level trough sweeping across the Upper Great Lakes bringing cold air from the northwest. Models are showing an upper level closed low to move across the mountain west then Central Plains. A low pressure system associated with the closed low will move across the Midwest and may affect the Northland over the weekend. As the low pressure system moves off to the east, winds are expected to decrease throughout the afternoon and evening.
644 AM EST Sun Dec 31 2023 Aviation Low pressure will pass through Lower Michigan today. Drizzle is developing this morning as moisture and lift increases in a layer of low clouds that is warmer than -8C and mostly ice-free. The temperature in most locations has stayed above 32 and this will limit the chance of freezing drizzle, though areas near and north of Big Rapids are most at risk of a little freezing precip around daybreak.
(Today through Monday) Our airmass change to a more humid and warmer regime is slowly getting underway as winds have turned southeast, albeit light. Expect increasing south winds, rising dew points and warmer temperatures ahead of slower moving cold front as start the new year. Pressures do not lower significantly along the cold front that is expected to move into North Texas tonight keeping the south winds a tad lower than previous forecast. Still expect some gusts between 25- 30 mph favoring the Lower/Mid RGV this afternoon. Models have come together showing a slower frontal movement, now oozing into northern Ranchlands late Monday morning and not until the afternoon for the RGV, especially the lower RGV.
Look for cooler daytime temperatures today and over the coming week as a series of weather disturbance delivers unsettled weather through the coming week.
435 AM MST Sun Dec 31 2023 - Cooler today with low clouds and morning fog over far northeast Colorado.
This will keep temps slightly cooler than previously forecasted as well, but only by a degree or two with afternoon temps not rising far from current values up into the mid 20s to low 30s for highs. Another cold front would be dropping south during the pre-dawn into early morning hours on New Year's Day. A weak ridge in the mid levels will allow for a continuation of mild conditions for the short term. Temperatures in the valley locations will reach into the upper 30s while higher elevations will be about 10 degrees cooler.
245 AM MST Sun Dec 31 2023 - Cooler today with low clouds and morning fog over far northeast Colorado.
543 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 (Tonight) An upper level trough moving through the Great Lakes region is bringing increased cloud cover to the TN Valley late this afternoon and overnight with the arrival of a cold front. While the cold front is forecast to be dry, it will bring a wind shift from southwesterly to northerly by midnight-- allowing subsequent increased CAA to the TN Valley. If winds become light enough, there is a low chance of freezing fog formation in portions of the TN Valley-- primarily in sheltered valleys and along large bodies of water.
320 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023 High pressure will dominate through Monday. A dry cold front will move through Monday night followed by high pressure into midweek.
Little snow accumulation is expected outside of the ridges. - A few inches of accumulation is possible for the ridges -- a dusting elsewhere. ______________________________________________________________ Early afternoon radar shows a first round of light snow and rain showers is moving across the area as low pressure approaches the region. Again, a mix of rain and snow is expected, with rain favored for Pittsburgh south and snow favored along the I-80 corridor and ridges. Through tonight, generally a dusting or less is expected for the lower elevations, with 1 to 2 inches possible in some areas of the ridges. KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered snow in the wake of the low during the day, diminishing in the evening.
236 PM MST Sun Dec 31 2023 AFTERNOON UPDATE: The area of dense freezing fog this morning lingered until close to noon and deposited some rime ice. -Zanker MORNING UPDATE: Dense Fog Advisory was extended for a few more hours until noon to account for persistence and slight expansion westward of an area of freezing fog this morning.
657 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023 A dry cold front will move over North Carolina Monday to start the new year.
530 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Tonight and New Year's Day (Monday): The highlight of the near term forecast is a cold front moving across the region, which will shift winds to the north and bring cooler, drier air into our area tonight & into New Year's Day. Cloud cover will begin to increase as the evening progresses ahead of the cold front. For New Year's Day, the aforementioned cold front will be to the south of the CWA. Northerly winds and cooler/dry air will keep afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
High pressure builds in tomorrow into mid week with near average temperatures and mostly dry weather. Given the warm air advection and thickening cloud cover tonight, overnight lows will likely not fall much so valleys may be at or above freezing through the majority of the snowfall. Wetbulbing will help keep the precip type mainly as snow region wide though the warmer temperatures will limit and most likely prevent snow accumulations at lower elevations. Tomorrow, upper level ridging builds in with snow quickly coming to an end.
Areas of low clouds and freezing fog may struggle to clear out of some areas today as increasing mid to high level clouds are forecast to stream in across the Sierra and western Nevada. Temperatures around midnight will be in the low to mid 30s for western Nevada valleys, but you should probably bundle up a bit more for the low to mid 20s in the Sierra.
1219 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 - Reduced visibility and a few slick spots in freezing fog this morning into this afternoon especially from Hwy 83 westward. More freezing fog possible tonight.
910 AM MST Sun Dec 31 2023 MORNING UPDATE: Dense Fog Advisory was extended for a few more hours until noon to account for persistence and slight expansion westward of an area of freezing fog this morning.
Very little to no snow accum expected while sfc temps remain above freezing this afternoon but some minor snow accum could occur in the Wind Point area of Racine tnt. A high amplitude upper ridge over the nrn high plains into the Canadian prairies will then build into WI for Mon and Mon evening.
455 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 (This evening through Monday) A dry cold front will move through the region this afternoon and tonight. Lows tonight will be cooler, ranging from the upper 20s along and north of a Sterling City to Clyde/Baird line to around freezing along I-10. New Year's Day will be cooler, with highs ranging from the upper 40s north of I- 20 to the mid 50s along I-10.
210 PM MST Sun Dec 31 2023 Cooler with periods of active weather expected through the coming weekend.
As the trough aloft exits over the Delmarva Peninsula, northerly flow prevails over the lake such that far northwest IN will be the primary recipient of lake effect snow tonight. Furthermore, toward sunrise, low level flow backs in response to low-level ridging, disrupting the LES. Monday afternoon forecast soundings show a modest signal for drizzle; saturation with lift in the lowest few thousand feet. Duration is uncertain due to noisy forecast soundings, but overall, drier air is set to build in by nightfall negating any significant freezing drizzle concerns.
1012mb low pressure is near ARB, and will continue to move slowly eastward. An upper-level trof will be departing the area to start the period, followed by pronounced surface and upper ridging.
130 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023 High pressure will extend over the Southeast through tonight, while clipper low pressure will move from the upper Great Lakes to the Middle Atlantic coast.
1145 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 The cold front is moving into NE AR and the MO Bootheel attm. A dry cold front will move across the region this afternoon and evening to keep chilly conditions in the forecast.
1156 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Southwest surface flow, along with clear skies will continue thanks to surface ridging over the Southeast CONUS. Adjusted to the high temperature slightly and updates are out.
(Tonight) An upper level trough moving through the Great Lakes region is bringing increased cloud cover to the TN Valley late this afternoon and overnight with the arrival of a cold front. While the cold front is forecast to be dry, it will bring a wind shift from southwesterly to northerly by midnight-- allowing subsequent increased CAA to the TN Valley. If winds become light enough, there is a low chance of freezing fog formation in portions of the TN Valley-- primarily in sheltered valleys and along large bodies of water.
High pressure building in tonight will bring dry conditions for Monday.
- New Year's Day will be seasonably mild with highs ranging from the low to mid 30 east, to the upper 30s to upper 40s west (warmest southwest). An upper level ridge axis is currently located along the Montana/North Dakota border. At the surface, broad high pressure was centered near the central North Dakota/South Dakota border. With the passing of the aforementioned ridge, New Year's Day should see plenty of sunshine for most and well above normal highs, ranging from the low to mid 30s east, to the upper 30s to upper 40s west (warmest southwest). As an example, the NBM 75th percentile for the high at Bismarck tomorrow is 40, the median is 38, and the 25th percentile is 36. Thus, we trended towards the warmer solution, but there's really not much gap between the warmer and cooler solutions.
255 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023 An area of low pressure will move east across the Great Lakes tonight, bringing some light snow to the northern Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. As this low moves away on Monday, cooler and drier air will move into the region.
Therefore, the low temperatures for tonight have been raised a few degrees north of I-40. Regardless, the temperatures are expected to be below normal as high pressure builds over the area from the north and a mid-level ridge prevails across the southern Plains.
Weak upper ridging over Texas is providing NW flow aloft with a weak surface cold front located just north of the Missouri border at this time. Cooler air will move in behind the boundary with parts of the north seeing high temperatures early in the day and likely steadying out.
1046 AM MST Sun Dec 31 2023 - Cooler today with a few light snow showers or flurries for the mountains today.
(This afternoon through Monday) After a cold start to the morning, temperatures have rebounded into the lower 50s across the area under sunny skies. A low pressure system will move across the Ohio Valley tonight moving into the Western Atlantic tomorrow morning. This will rapidly send a cold front through Central Alabama, but dry, zonal flow aloft will prevent sufficient moisture return, so rain is not expected with this passage. However, it will reintroduce CAA back to the region as a large ridge builds over the Central CONUS. Although clouds will decrease during the day tomorrow, the cooler airmass will result in highs ranging from the mid 40s north to upper 50s and near 60F in the south.
Another favorable night for good radiational cooling with overnight lows in the lower to mid 40s north, mid to upper 40s central, and upper 40s to around 50 south. but several degrees warmer along the immediate coast.
Water vapor imagery highlights a short wave ridge sliding east across the Gulf of Mexico. Hemispheric perspective water vapor imagery places a potent Pacific cyclone nearing southern California.
623 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023 Aviation - Colder Temperatures Tonight Could Cause Slick Roads Starting to see more snow showers as the deeper saturation moves in with the upper level low. As the low shifts east the positive vorticity advection and moisture begin to shift south of the area. Temperatures will continue to fall overnight into Monday morning with lows in the low to upper 20s. Highs again will bee in the low to mid 30s with lows Monday night in the mid to upper 20s.
Any chance of rain showers is expected to be low and mainly confined to the southwestern quarter of the forecast area and over the open Gulf, tied to this higher moisture availability. Temperatures rising a bit above seasonal norms today (60-65 degree range over most of the forecast area) will see a drop Monday as cooler air begins to move south over the forecast area, mainly in the afternoon.
556 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 - Patchy to widespread dense fog and freezing fog may impact travel tonight.
222 PM MST Sun Dec 31 2023 - Areas of freezing fog will lead to reduced visibilities and potential for slick roadways across portions of the western Nebraska Panhandle tonight through Monday morning.
107 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023 High pressure will extend over the Southeast through tonight, while clipper low pressure will move from the upper Great Lakes to the Middle Atlantic coast.
453 PM MST Sun Dec 31 2023 - Areas of freezing fog will lead to reduced visibilities and potential for slick roadways across portions of the western Nebraska Panhandle tonight through Monday morning.
632 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023 High pressure will dominate through Monday. A dry cold front will move through Monday night followed by high pressure into midweek.
The energy will send a cold front through turning winds westerly tonight and then northwest on Monday.
1238 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023 High pressure will keep the weather cool and dry heading into the new year.
(This evening through Monday night) As skies clear tonight and winds become light and variable, believe that we could have some freezing fog around. At this point we do not believe that we will have widespread dense freezing fog, but we could see some isolated spots decrease to less than a mile. The strongest winds (15 to 25 mph) are expected to be across the northwest where the tightest gradient will be between low pressure developing in southeast Colorado and high pressure retreating to the east across southern Kansas. The most dramatic warm up for Monday will come across the northwest where highs may be 10 degrees warmer than today.
330 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023 A dry cold front will move over North Carolina Monday to start the new year.
537 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 High pressure will build into the region early this week with highs in the 40s and lows mostly in the 20s.
(This evening through Monday Night) At 20z, a cold front was located just north of the Interstate 30 corridor. The NAM and the high-resolution CAMS generally develop some precip as far north as Nacogdoches and southern Cherokee Counties, and this forecast favors the higher- res, short-range models. These winds are expected to advect some drier and significantly cooler air into the region.
1134 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 (Today and tonight) Surface observations indicate that a cold front was located near/along the Red River in SW Oklahoma and into the TX Panhandle. The earlier arrival of the cold front to the Big Country will result in cooler highs in that region (mid 50s to low 60s), with compressional warming ahead of the cold front bringing warmer highs in the upper 60s to low 70s south of the Big Country.
Water vapor imagery clearly shows an upper level low over Washington State this afternoon. Another potential impact will be for dense freezing fog.
629 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023 An area of low pressure will move east across the Great Lakes tonight, bringing some light snow to the northern Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. As this low moves away on Monday, cooler and drier air will move into the region.
1059 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 The cold front is moving into NE AR and the MO Bootheel attm. A dry cold front will move across the region this afternoon and evening to keep chilly conditions in the forecast.
The low of 55 at Key West is the coldest since last January.
A trough moving through the PNW today continues moving eastward tonight and Monday and keeps its moisture up to our north. This split pattern has loosened the grip that high pressure had on eastern Idaho just a bit, but it will do its best to get that grip back as we start off the new year. Temperatures will be just a few degrees cooler now with morning temperatures still in the mid teens to mid 20s in the valley locations and highs in the 30s on Monday afternoon.
215 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Tonight and New Year's Day (Monday): The highlight of the near term forecast is a cold front moving across the region, which will shift winds to the north and bring cooler, drier air into our area tonight & into New Year's Day. Cloud cover will begin to increase as the evening progresses ahead of the cold front. For New Year's Day, the aforementioned cold front will be to the south of the CWA. Northerly winds and cooler/dry air will keep afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
329 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 - Patchy to widespread dense fog and freezing fog may impact travel tonight.
415 PM MST Sun Dec 31 2023 AFTERNOON UPDATE: The area of dense freezing fog this morning lingered until close to noon and deposited some rime ice. -Zanker MORNING UPDATE: Dense Fog Advisory was extended for a few more hours until noon to account for persistence and slight expansion westward of an area of freezing fog this morning.
High pressure will build into the region early this week with highs in the 40s and lows mostly in the 20s.
Southwest surface flow, along with clear skies will continue thanks to surface ridging over the Southeast CONUS. Adjusted to the high temperature slightly and updates are out.
Currently, elongated upper level low remains over the Western Great Lakes region, resulting in north/northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains.
607 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023 The primary concern in the short term remains freezing/near freezing temperatures tonight and Sunday night. A modified Arctic airmass is streaming into the Plains and Midwest today, driven south by a long wave trough extending from the Hudson Bay Region all the way to the Southeast U. High pressure will settle into the Mid Mississippi Valley Sunday.
Mesoscale update- A line of showers (occasional thunderstorm) along a reinforcing cold front is progressing eastward across the Upper Ohio Valley, now beginning to enter northern WV and western PA from Ohio. Lingering showers overnight will be limited to the ridges as westerly flow provides orographic lift of the still-saturated, cold airmass. Cooling temperatures may allow snow to mix with rain at the highest elevations, but little accumulation is expected.
EDT Sat Apr 22 2023 A cold front will move through the area through this evening. High pressure will build into the region Sunday.
The forecast for the week will be dominated by a persistent upper level ridge that will hold over the upper mid west and Great Lakes region, while a generally zonal pattern stretches across the southeastern CONUS through much of the week. For today, a fairly dry airmass is filling into the FLorida Peninsula in the wake of a weak cold front, which will keep rain chances limited to a few sea breeze showers or storms over the interior and parts of southwest Florida this afternoon and evening.
107 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 In the wake of the exiting cold front, high pressure will settle over the area today bringing cooler temperatures to the region.
Cooler conditions start moderating by late week. Similar conditions continue today and the rest of the weekend as yesterday, with upper level low churning to the north-northeast ushering in northwest flow and cold air advection across much of the forecast area. 15/18Z) is more stationary, less advection of the upper level low to the north-northeast. The surface freezing isotherm has flirted across and around the forecast area today, mostly pushing north into tonight.
Frost is also possible in this pattern, especially early Monday morning when temperatures may dip below freezing. This is due to broad upper level troughing over the Great Lakes region that will keep cooler temperatures and periods of clouds and light precipitation. However, a few locations in the eastern parts of the CWA, such as the western Ohio counties, will manage to get into the lower 50s. This will bring low temperatures in the lower 30s and upper 20s for the CWA. Of course, as usual the low-lying locations will see the coldest temperatures the cold air drains into these locations. Locations close to Lake Michigan will see slightly warmer temperatures with the light westerly winds in place. On the Climatological side of things, keep in mind that current normal lows for the area are in the lower 40s.
Elsewhere, calm winds and mostly clear skies have allowed temperatures to quickly drop into the lower to middle 30s. Overview: High confidence in cooler temperatures (around 10 degrees or more below normal) and unsettled pattern through much of the week ahead.
As a weak cold front continues to march away from mainland Florida, breezes will remain light and gradually veer (and occasionally become variable) throughout today. Tonight, high pressure sliding over the eastern United States will nudge our winds to be lightly out of the east to southeast before gently increasing for tomorrow. Winds will gradually veer later today and tonight as high pressure establishes itself over the eastern United States.
Maximum temperatures through Monday will range from the lower to upper 80s, while mild temperatures in the upper 60s/lower 70s continue for the interior/coasts respectively.
* Near freezing low temperatures outside of Chicago tonight. * Increasing likelihood for widespread freezing conditions and frost outside of Chicago Sunday night. It is an unseasonably cold day across the area this afternoon as the area remains under the influence of a large upper trough centered across the western Great Lakes. While temperatures will fall to around freezing (possibly briefly below freezing in parts of northwestern IL) continued mostly cloudy skies tonight should keep temperatures from getting too cold. Accordingly, we have opted to hold off on any freeze headlines for tonight, but instead highlight the near freezing temperatures with an SPS. We did issue a freeze watch outside of Chicago for Sunday night, however, as clearing skies and lighter winds will support a higher threat of subfreezing temperatures and widespread frost.
Main changes for this update was to freshen up sky cover, and to blend in a little bit of cooler model guidance for lows tonight, especially in the northwest. Currently, elongated upper level low remains over the Western Great Lakes region, resulting in north/northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains.