Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1022 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 Upslope snow showers will remain possible today into tonight before a cold front pushes through the area by Saturday morning.
The Florida Keys will experience a dominant high pressure in the western North Atlantic waters. The high pressure system will spread dry air through the atmosphere, creating a subsidence inversion.
High pressure will provide a dry and cool weekend. Rain mainly in WV south of I 68, with snow across the higher terrain, will gradually diminish and end this afternoon as the system exits. Some increase in clouds is expected again later this afternoon north of Pittsburgh as a weak cold front tracks southeastward off the Lower Great Lakes. An upper level trough will push a weak cold front through the region tonight.
(This afternoon through Saturday) High pressure will remain the dominant influence through the beginning of the weekend even as it pushes more offshore over the western Atlantic. Winds will stay steady out of the east, and breezy under the high pressure. With low level moisture continuing to linger, there will once again be chances again for late night and early morning fog due to the low level moisture.
This anticyclone will move east gradually over the next 24-36 hours. Overnight tonight, the high is expected to cross the Mississippi River into west-central Illinois. I continued to lean toward cooler guidance for tonight's minimum temperatures as a result, staying near the 25th percentile of available model guidance. The low temperature forecast across the region also is pretty close to the latest MET guidance, which has a track record of performing well in this type of situation. Lows in the mid to upper 30s are forecast Saturday night, or about 5-10 degrees warmer than tonight due to the aforementioned clouds and southeasterly surface winds.
1135 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 * Cooler and dry weather. A cold front is moving through the area this morning. Low temps this morning are still expected to reach the lower 30s for most areas, warmer in Chicago. Lows tonight will drop into mid/upper 20s for most areas, warmer in Chicago.
This will result in a large disparity in sensible weather from north to south across the forecast area through the remainder of the day, as sunny skies allow temperatures to climb into the low 60s for parts of North Texas, while overcast conditions hold highs in the 50s for much of Central Texas.
Temperatures are on track to see highs in the mid 50s to low 60s with the warmer temperatures to the west and cooler to the east. - Clearing skies and dry air move in with high pressure. The Ohio Valley is situated in the right entrance region of an upper-level jet moving northeast and a surge of moisture from the ArkLaTex region traveling isentropically over the cold front that passed through yesterday. Broad high pressure will begin to build into the region, allowing for a drier airmass and light winds. High temperature today will be in the low-mid 60s. High pressure will continue to grow over the region allowing for continued clear skies, light winds, and dry air.
1232 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 A cold front will bring some more rain or snow showers and below average temperatures today and tonight. Shower activity will continue to develop through the afternoon hours as the cold front approaches from the north. A cold front is expected to cross the forecast area today, bringing yet again more showery precipitation. High pressure will build in from the west/northwest, putting and end (for now) to our unsettled weather.
Any melting snow on roads could freeze later tonight as temperatures fall below freezing. The lows should drop into the middle 20s to lower 30s. Trended towards the warmer MAV guidance for highs, especially across central into northeast Wisconsin.
Upper level low moving into Minnesota is still lingering some low level clouds across eastern portions of the CWA.
Gusts to 25-35 kt over the higher terrain Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures remain just under November averages this afternoon thanks to the cooler air mass hanging on across the region and little to no mixing under the light upper level winds. Light accumulations under an inch are possible on the high peaks, mostly above 10000 feet. Overnight lows will be cold and crisp again in the low valleys and elevated basins tonight, with a few single digits possible. Saturday afternoon will be pretty pleasant across the region under mostly sunny skies and temperatures coming up to normal, thanks to building high pressure.
848 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 High pressure moves through the region this weekend, bringing mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures. The ILN CWA is on the eastern periphery of the high, with light NW flow, and very dry boundary layer conditions.
/Tonight through Friday/ Key Messages: -Breezy and warmer on Saturday with sprinkles or isolated light showers north.
628 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 High pressure builds in from the west through the weekend.
Low level subsidence still looks favorable, so went ahead and upgraded the High Wind Watch to a Warning for the Arlington/Elk Mountain area with gusts up to 65 MPH expected.
Persistent stratus remains in place across the area this afternoon, with temperatures gradually warming into the lower to middle 30s.
511 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough has opened, and is moving through the Four Corners, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. Radar returns show a few residual -SHRA in the area, and these should continue to diminish this afternoon/evening as the trough moves east. To the west, the next trough begins digging down Baja, increasing southwest flow aloft over the area. Saturday night, temperatures should be similar to tonight's, if not a degree or two warmer.
550 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 High pressure builds in from the west through the weekend.
High pressure is centered near Galesburg this evening with clear skies and light or calm winds in place across central Illinois.
609 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 High pressure moves through the region this weekend, bringing mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures.
A weak surface cold front is continuing to sink southward through lower Michigan late this afternoon. Once the front pushes though, high pressure will begin to build into the area. In addition to the low-level moisture depth being shallow, it also isn't very cold with forecast temperatures of -10C or warmer. Pattern Synopsis: Upper Great Lakes rests right on the fringe of a longwave troughing regime that looks to begin breaking down with time. A potent digging trough on the west coast will lead to a pronounced ridging response east of the Rockies, helping to force troughing overhead to the north and east.
1) Our benign weather pattern continues through the day Saturday An area of high pressure, which is currently centered over southwestern Iowa and northwestern Missouri, will continue to slowly translate to the east tonight through the day Saturday. The high pressure system will keep winds light and variable tonight. Make sure to bundle up if you plan to be out and about tonight! The high pressure system will move off to the east Saturday, which will result in southerly return flow over our region. The bulk of the moisture will remain to our north, so not expecting any precipitation associated with this trough.
518 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 * Quiet Seven Days Ahead * Stray Sprinkle Possible Saturday As of 2pm Friday afternoon, mostly sunny skies were ongoing with surface ridging across the area.
Scattered showers erupted across the Straits off the Lower and Middle Keys, with a northwest-to- southeast band recently developed through Islamorada. This lift in the lower troposphere is likely the source of some of the saturation, and it seems the GFS and FV3 CAM has been more aggressive with precipitation tonight. That being said, the combination of a subtle tightening of the pressure gradient across Florida with the surface ridging across the Mid Atlantic will probably encourage continued shower development across the Straits, with several bringing brief rainfall in the Keys. From synopsis, high pressure centered in the western North Atlantic will continue to slide eastward and broaden over the next several days.
Cloud cover is associated with back door cold front that was as far west as a Safford-Douglas line and upper level trofiness over the area. Overnight lows will be chilly ranging from around freezing for the colder eastern/southern valleys to the upper 40s from Tucson west.
925 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023 High pressure builds in from the west through the weekend.
549 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) Much cooler conditions across the region in wake of yesterday's frontal passage. Weak isentropic lift above this cooler airmass has kept low clouds along with light rain/drizzle across the region today. However, locations north of I-30 have managed to get a break in cloud cover, which has allowed temps to climb into the low to mid 50s. Short term progs continue to suggest that weak isentropic lift will continue as more weak disturbances will move across southeast Texas/SW Louisiana ahead of a trough digging across the SW CONUS.
536 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 (This evening through Saturday) A mid-level trough across the southwest U.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer Saturday, warming each day through early in the week.
519 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2023 - Elevated fire danger Cheyenne Ridge Saturday afternoon. Tonight into Saturday, an upper level ridge progresses eastward toward Colorado, putting the region under WNW/NW flow aloft. Temperatures aloft warm a couple degrees resulting in slightly warmer highs than Friday in the mid to upper 50s for the lower elevations. On Saturday night, continued moderate northwest flow aloft will bring continued windy conditions to the higher mountains.
A dry pattern continues for the next few days over Central California as high pressure aloft shifts over the area. Morning lows across the valley remain on the cool side, but will increase a few degrees over the weekend due to high pressure aloft.
Altocumulus has been spreading east over the area since late evening, and while moving east, it's been dissipating, providing our central and eastern CWA with a clear, relatively cold night in the lower to mid 20s. Highs today will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, but will feel a bit cooler than that this afternoon, with increasing south winds. Under the high clouds and increased south winds tonight, lows are expected to be milder than tonight, and only reach the mid to upper 30s.
High temperatures today will be in the low 50s, then a warming trend is expected with highs in the low 60s for much of the work week.
820 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2023 - Elevated fire danger Cheyenne Ridge Saturday afternoon. Tonight into Saturday, an upper level ridge progresses eastward toward Colorado, putting the region under WNW/NW flow aloft. Temperatures aloft warm a couple degrees resulting in slightly warmer highs than Friday in the mid to upper 50s for the lower elevations. On Saturday night, continued moderate northwest flow aloft will bring continued windy conditions to the higher mountains.
929 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 (Issued 930 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023) Strengthening high pressure over the region will likely keep the area clear with clouds largely keeping out to the northwest.
Despite plenty of sunshine, these cool NE winds will keep temps a bit cooler than yesterday, with thermometer readings likely in the mid to upper 50s (around 5 degrees below normal). Areas north of the I-64 corridor will likely be a few degrees cooler compared to the south. Lows overnight will drop into the low- mid 30s, though some of the colder valley locations may drop into the upper 20s.
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the Florida peninsula through the weekend with warm rather humid conditions persisting.
152 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2023 Satellite imagery showed a short wave trough tracking across our eastern zones overnight.
The region will also remain under strengthening southwest flow aloft as a trough of low pressure will dig southward over Baja California. Nevertheless, high temperatures should reach the low 60s area-wide this afternoon. Low temperatures will therefore be in the low 40s across the Big Country where skies will be clear, and in the upper 40s elsewhere.
* Today is expected to be windy but a little warmer than yesterday.
High Impact Weather Potential: Low Pattern Synopsis: Mid/upper-level ridging will continue to slide over the Great Lakes today as a downstream jet max punches over the Atlantic. Forecast Details: Quiet weather is in store for most of northern Michigan today with aforementioned high pressure overhead. Otherwise, additional rain/snow chances may work into northern Michigan later tonight as warm advection increases out ahead of the previously mentioned cyclone. Near-average highs in the upper 30s and low 40s are in store this afternoon with lows dipping into the low to mid 30s for most overnight.
Temperatures are running a couple of degrees warmer at the moment thanks to the increased cloud cover, but we should still be able to cool into the low 40s by early tomorrow morning. Temperatures at midday range from near 60 northwest where most of the sunshine prevails, to the lower 50s along the Plateau. Though the cold front is to our south, not too much in the way of current caa based on upstream temps.
354 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure will result in dry conditions through the weekend. Otherwise, high pressure will build east across the Great Lakes through the day. Temperatures will be cooler today with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s north to the lower 50s in the south.
1118 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 * Quiet Seven Days Ahead * Stray Sprinkle Possible Saturday As of 2pm Friday afternoon, mostly sunny skies were ongoing with surface ridging across the area.
232 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 Much cooler and wetter conditions for the weekend as cold air wedging sets up.
The primary feature of note during this transition will be a low pressure system that develops and drifts along the Gulf Coast. After that, it moves east and a sharper northern stream cyclone barrels toward the Great Lakes, from Canada, dropping a cold front, with associated rain chances, into/across the Ohio Valley by week's end.
300 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 The short term forecast period should remain quiet with slightly warmer temperatures than yesterday. An upper low that is currently located near the northern border of North Dakota and Minnesota will slowly meander east and out of the region through the day. Progressive ridging will then move across the state today and tonight. Broad and persistant warm air advection will nudge into the west, leading to some highs in the lower 50s across the southwest. Normal lows for this time of year are generally in the lower 20s.
Lake generated precipitation should be on the down swing as high pressure will continue to build in tonight and flow will become weak. The 850 mb thermal trough is forecast to be over the area around 00z this evening which is about when the greatest chance for showers will be. Surface temperatures will be above freezing for most of the area this evening so impacts look unlikely.
1043 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 (This evening through Saturday) A mid-level trough across the southwest U.
Temperatures will be warmer with highs 5-10 degrees above normal. Gusts to 25-35 kt over the higher terrain Saturday afternoon.
Most areas will remain dry today as a robust high-pressure system begins to advance into Michigan from the west. The low-level flow will then shift from west to northwest ahead of the high-pressure system, briefly transporting additional lake moisture inland. Moisture depths below the snow growth zone and the warmer waters of Lake Huron would result in rain for any observed precipitation. A potent high-pressure system will then settle over the northern Great Lakes Saturday afternoon, ushering in dry conditions and some sunshine. The high-pressure system is set to exit into Ontario/Quebec Saturday night.
Temperatures this evening are running a degree or two cooler then yesterday evening under mostly clear skies and light winds.
209 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes today.
1211 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure moves through the region this weekend, bringing mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures. The ILN CWA is on the eastern periphery of the high, with light NW flow, and very dry boundary layer conditions.
1133 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2023 - Elevated fire danger Cheyenne Ridge Saturday afternoon. Tonight into Saturday, an upper level ridge progresses eastward toward Colorado, putting the region under WNW/NW flow aloft. Temperatures aloft warm a couple degrees resulting in slightly warmer highs than Friday in the mid to upper 50s for the lower elevations. On Saturday night, continued moderate northwest flow aloft will bring continued windy conditions to the higher mountains.
1225 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 High pressure builds in from the west through the weekend.
1055 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough has opened, and is moving through the Four Corners, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. Radar returns show a few residual -SHRA in the area, and these should continue to diminish this afternoon/evening as the trough moves east. To the west, the next trough begins digging down Baja, increasing southwest flow aloft over the area. Saturday night, temperatures should be similar to tonight's, if not a degree or two warmer.
It appears that at least part of this Veterans Day will feature sunshine, especially away from Lake Michigan, though just enough moisture remaining in the lower levels will keep our area on the cusp of developing patches of stratocumulus by afternoon. Temperatures will be a touch cooler than normal.
651 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Today and Tonight: A positively titled upper-level trough axis extends from the Upper Midwest southwest toward the Baja Peninsula early this morning, with a broad axis of moist ascent along its eastern flank tapping into a tropical Eastern Pacific air mass. At the surface, cooler drier post-frontal air has been trying to undercut precipitation but so far has only managed to clear out the northern third of our forecast area, or areas roughly north of the Interstate 20 corridor. This will allow for rain chances to diminish as mid-level ridging starts to build behind this retreating boundary.
The short term forecast period should remain quiet with slightly warmer temperatures than yesterday. An upper low that is currently located near the northern border of North Dakota and Minnesota will slowly meander east and out of the region through the day. Progressive ridging will then move across the state today and tonight. Broad and persistant warm air advection will nudge into the west, leading to some highs in the lower 50s across the southwest. Normal lows for this time of year are generally in the lower 20s. A cold front will enter the northwest Sunday morning and cross the rest of the state through the day. Most will see even warmer temperatures on Sunday in advance of the cold front with highs forecast to range from the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Think that the low clouds will begin to slowly pull eastward as the upper low starts to move off, although the HREF has some more mid clouds moving in from the west so probably won't see too much sun at least in the Red River Valley eastward until afternoon.
This soupy atmosphere is further exacerbated by a speckling of shallow showers drifting lazily across the Lower and Middle Keys from the east southeast. High pressure stretched across the western North Atlantic is promoting moderate to occasionally fresh easterly breezes along our offshore observation platforms. Breezes will freshen and back slightly as a high pressure building along the Eastern Seaboard takes control from the high sliding east into the Atlantic.
In conjunction with this, a warm front will lift across our area, bringing moderating temperatures by this afternoon. A weak cold front will sweep across the region on Sunday.
358 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2023 Key Messages: 1) Areas of freezing fog are expected across the San Luis Valley this morning. Most areas are cool and clear as of 3 am this morning, with the exception of the San Luis Valley where freezing fog has developed. Daytime highs look to reach into the low 60s for the Arkansas River Valley and mid to upper 50s elsewhere across the plains.
518 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 (Today and tonight) Light rain has held on through much of the overnight thus far as a secondary trough behind the one that lifted through our area yesterday, is deeper and more dynamic than previously progged. Overnight lows will be cooler as mostly clear skies and light winds into early Sunday morning allow for increased radiational cooling. In our normal cooler spots over the southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains, lows will drop to around the freezing mark, gradually warmer as you shift east and south, to upper 30s across the southern South Plains and low 40s east of the escarpment.
555 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 (Today through Sunday) The front is now to the south of the area, with a inverted trough to the east. Rain will continue to generate north of the front and run along the trough axis. Meanwhile, scattered rain is developing in southern Mississippi and will slide into Alabama later this morning and into the day Saturday right around the Interstate 20 corridor along the trough axis. This trough will slide west during the night and be in place across northwestern Alabama on Sunday morning. The trough should then move north and east into the Appalachians by the afternoon, bring an end to the rain chances from west to east.
Overnight into Sunday, a warm front will move northward through the area, bringing mild and much above normal temps. Cold front quickly follows during the day, but not much in the way of cold air behind this front. Deviated from the higher end NBM after looking at rather unimpressive Bufkit momentum speeds, MAV/MET guidance, HRRR output, HREF (mean, 25th-75th percentiles), etc. Ridging will dominate the upper pattern for the most part, and this will bring some very mild air aloft across the region.
317 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2023 - Windy over the higher elevations of the Front Range through tonight. Strong winds have been limited to the highest mountains, with up to about 50 mph on Niwot Ridge, but below timberline it's only been about 30 mph. Northwesterly flow begins to weaken Sunday as high pressure enters our CWA.
High pressure is centered over the area early this morning with light winds and generally clear skies, which have allowed temps to drop into the 20s for most areas outside of Chicago. Winds will become southerly this afternoon into tonight as the high moves east and the gradient will tighten on Sunday, allowing southwest winds to gust into the 25-30 mph range in the afternoon and evening, mainly along/north of I-80.
529 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 (Today through Sunday night) Radar imagery this morning shows a few sprinkles may still be occurring over our far southeast counties in association with a warm front located to our south. Sunday looks to be similar to today except just a tad warmer as weak upper ridge builds along the Gulf Coast, with lows once again in the upper 30s north to mid 40s south, and highs reaching the 60s.
-Noticeably warmer weather is in store tomorrow, continuing throughout the upcoming workweek. Mid-level moisture advection is evident on water vapor imagery over the eastern half of KS ahead of a trough axis approaching from the west. 05" -- under the mid-level cloud deck as the trough progresses eastward today. Highs should run about ten degrees warmer than today. The more active part of the pattern will exist both north and south of the area, keeping conditions here persistently dry and warmer than average.