Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
640 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 An Arctic cold front will cross the region this morning. Canadian high pressure will build over the area through late week. The Arctic cold front currently pinned along the NC mtns and foothills will start to advect east over the next few hours. Canadian high pressure centered over the area will continue to build east, with the center of the high moving off the mid-Atlantic coast Thursday evening. Highs in the lower/mid 50s north to mid/upper 50s south, which is still 10-12 degrees below normal. Thus, many places across the NC Piedmont will likely experience a second consecutive night of freezing temps.
909 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 Winds have begun to gradually decrease in speed this morning as high pressure builds in and the pressure gradient relaxes. Winds have been lower due to decoupling but the low level inversion isn't strong enough to keep winds calm but this will not be the case tonight and decoupling will be strong enough to bring winds to calm at least toward sunrise Thu. Temps will be fully capable of reaching below freezing for most of the northern tier of counties/parishes as the night progresses.
Sub-surface temperatures are still in the 40s and surface temperatures are just around freezing so considering the lake induced instability, and model soundings indicating lift through a saturated column aloft which extends through DGZ. there is a risk of enhanced snowfall rates during the morning where we could see quick accumulations along and north of the I-80 corridor, as well as the ridges of northern WV, where prolonged upslope flow, steep lapse rates and rapidly cooling air will sustain higher snow-liquid ratios and efficient snowfall. Top analogs (in regards to time of year, temps aloft, pattern, etc) continue to include several events where several COOP sites NW of PGH and the ridges show 3-4", which is aligning with most recent hi-res guidance. Dry conditions return this evening as high pressure begins to build in across the region and winds back more westerly.
Currently - A strong mid latitude trough is swinging through the eastern United States today. This along with strong high pressure over the Plains is resulting in increasing northerly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. A cold front stretching from central Florida to the Yucatan is being thrust southward by the strengthening flow. The cold front is expected to be driven through the Keys this afternoon. However, there will be virtually no support for convective activity with the prefrontal trough well off to the east and lower level dry air and inhibition will hang on. Strong high pressure spreading southeastward out of the Plains will result in winds trending upwards for most marine waters this afternoon then sharply surging this evening.
1010 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 An Arctic cold front will cross the region this morning. Canadian high pressure will build over the area through late week. The Arctic cold front currently pinned along the NC mtns and foothills will start to advect east over the next few hours. Canadian high pressure centered over the area will continue to build east, with the center of the high moving off the mid-Atlantic coast Thursday evening. Highs in the lower/mid 50s north to mid/upper 50s south, which is still 10-12 degrees below normal. Thus, many places across the NC Piedmont will likely experience a second consecutive night of freezing temps.
The winds early this morning have kept surface temperatures warmer than expected, so any freezing temperatures will likely stay along and north of I-20. Warmer temperatures on Thursday as surface winds become southeast.
Wind speeds are expected to diminish this afternoon as the high pressure builds in and the pressure gradient relaxes, so conditions still look likely to fall slightly short of needing a fire danger statement and for now will continue to keep the conditions highlighted in the FWF. With high pressure building over the area today, winds tonight will be calm or very light, allowing widespread mid to upper 20s in the Valley. As high pressure builds in today, winds are expected to continue diminishing. The uncertainty is how much and how quickly winds will decrease, so for now, will highlight the low RH in the FWF, and will let the day shift decide on the need for a Fire Danger Statement.
Winds have been lower due to decoupling but the low level inversion isn't strong enough to keep winds calm but this will not be the case tonight and decoupling will be strong enough to bring winds to calm at least toward sunrise Thu. Temps will be fully capable of reaching below freezing for most of the northern tier of counties/parishes as the night progresses.
As a result, clear skies & light winds have allowed for overnight temperatures to drop well into the teens across much of central Minnesota & west-central Wisconsin and into the low 20s in the "warm" urban heat island of the Twin Cities metro. Persistent southerly winds will advect warmer temperatures in the 40s temperatures into southwest Minnesota, but otherwise it will be another day with afternoon highs in the mid 30s.
The cold front has pushed south and is now located over south Florida. Temperatures are in the 60's for most of the area and will slowly rise into the low to mid 70's for north and central Florida and upper 70's to around 80 for southwest Florida. (12Z TAFS) A dry cold front pushes through the region today with VFR and rain- free conditions expected through the period. A cold front moved through the region and is now located over south Florida. Broad high pressure will continue to build in from the northwest in the wake of this cold front, setting up a tight pressure gradient.
Otherwise, southwesterly breezes will develop this afternoon and remain through the overnight hours, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s away from the warmer lakeshore regions.
722 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 - Lake effect snow tapers off after daybreak - Sunny and quiet weather returns with high pressure building in High pressure centered over the Central Plains is extending ridging into the Great Lakes for today, which should lead to more sunshine and generally dry conditions today. This has kept temperatures several degrees warmer than expected across the southern UP, but with skies clearing out and a couple more hours until daybreak, we should still see some readings in the lower to mid teens. Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough across most of the U. with a ridge on the west coast 00z Thu. By 12z Mon, a trough moves into the upper Great Lakes as a ridge builds into the Rockies. This trough digs into the ern U.
Today our northwest flow aloft starts to become more zonal as the upper trof moves off the New England coast.
617 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 (Today through Thursday night) An upper level trough to the east, and ridge to the west has the FA under northwest flow aloft. With the ridge building a bit more tomorrow highs should end up in the upper 60s tomorrow afternoon. For tomorrow, winds are expected to subside to 15 mph or less as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure continues to gradually build overhead. Overnight lows are looking to stay a bit warmer both tonight and tomorrow night. Then many areas are expected to stay above freezing going into tomorrow night after seeing the afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s.
A high pressure ridge axis will move across the region today and will keep the dry weather going. The ridge axis is expected to flatten for Thursday and Thursday night in response to Pacific energy moving across the northwestern Pacific states. Winds will remain light during the afternoon with some gustiness to 25 mph over the higher terrain north of I-80.
High pressure remains across the region, with a continued warming trend expected.
This setup has led to cooling with temperatures ranging from the middle 30s in the Hill Country up to the lower 40s elsewhere. With continued radiational cooling expected through sunrise, many locations in the Hill Country and northern I35 corridor are likely to reach the freezing mark and the ongoing Freeze Warning will continue. All temperatures are expected to be back above freezing by 10 AM. Will wait on any additional Freeze Warnings for tonight until we verify which counties reached freezing this morning. Otherwise, lows will be in the lower 30s to near 40 with the higher values in the Rio Grande Plains. This will allow highs to be a bit warmer than today, topping out in the 60s to near 70 across the region.
Highest gusts will be east of I-29, especially around the eastern Buffalo Ridge area, where 25-30 mph are possible. Slightly cooler than average for Wednesday and Thursday, in the 40s.
The cold front working its way southward through the area today is made evident by the line of lower ceilings along it, as well as the wind surge accompanying it. Temperatures this afternoon will be noticeably cooler and drier, thanks to postfrontal air and increased cloud cover along the front. Martin County, which will see the frontal passage last, could reach the lower 80s before the front reaches the area. (12Z TAFS) A cold front is passing southward through the area this morning and will drop into southern Florida this afternoon.
434 AM MDT Wed Nov 1 2023 A dirty ridge hangs over the region through the middle part of this week, which will keep the warming trend going as temps continue their rise back to seasonal normals. High pressure will steadfastly remain in the area today into tomorrow. Lows will drop into the 20s tonight, which is a bit warmer than last night thanks to the clouds and ridging.
Wednesday morning will likely equate to temperatures at or below the freezing mark across the entire state; additionally, clear skies and light to calm wind will assist in this morning temperature drop. Thursday morning will see a similar trend with regards to low temperatures falling to at or below the freezing mark with a possible few locations across the state remaining just above the freezing mark.
915 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 An Arctic cold front will cross the region this morning. Canadian high pressure will build over the area through late week. The Arctic cold front currently pinned along the NC mtns and foothills will start to advect east over the next few hours. Canadian high pressure centered over the area will continue to build east, with the center of the high moving off the mid-Atlantic coast Thursday evening. Highs in the lower/mid 50s north to mid/upper 50s south, which is still 10-12 degrees below normal. Thus, many places across the NC Piedmont will likely experience a second consecutive night of freezing temps.
Cool morning low temperatures will still occur across the eastern valleys where freezing conditions may be possible this morning and again Thursday morning. Otherwise, ridging will begin to build in from the southwest with high temperatures warming to right around normal levels today and 1-3 degrees above normal on Thursday. However, overnight low temperatures this morning and again Thursday morning in our normal cold spots of Cochise, Graham and Santa Cruz counties (the Sulphur Springs Valley, near St David and Elgin) will see near freezing to freezing low temperatures.
728 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 Aviation -Cold and clear the next two days In the wake of the exiting upper level trough a positively tilted ridge will stifle any residual instability. High pressure through the mid levels will move northward as upper level zonal flow will dominate the weather for the next few days. Southwest flow in the lower levels will result in some warm air advection helping temperatures warm a few degrees each day.
Cirrus overrunning the mid-level ridge of high pressure over the West was moving overhead early this morning and will continue to do so through Thursday.
735 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 (12Z TAFS) A dry cold front pushes through the region today with VFR and rain- free conditions expected through the period. Currently at the surface, a cold front is pushing into southern Florida with cooler and drier air filling into the state from the north. Broad high pressure building in behind the front today and tonight will keep breezy north and northeast winds in place, with cold air advection keeping temperatures in the 60s and low 70s over the Nature Coast this afternoon, and mid 70s to around 80 from the Interstate 75 corridor south. The coolest temperatures of the week will be tonight into Thursday morning, with morning lows ranging from the low 40s over the northern Nature Coast counties to around 60 over southwest Florida.
Eventually southerly winds will help bring in warmer temperatures for the weekend with forecasted highs in the upper 30s mainly over NE MN to low to mid 40s over NW WI.
Highs over the plains will be in the low-mid 60s, while the valleys will sit in the 50s. Temps cool back down again tonight with 20s to low-30s over the plains and teens over the high valleys.
640 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 It will be a very chilly start to November, with highs only in the low 40s this afternoon.
A little bit cooler airmass tonight with the potential for fog formation in the western portions of the Dakotas, based off snow melting through the day. While a 1023mb high pressure settles over that area, again, guidance has clouds descending the upstream ridge into the area. That means that fog is not a slam dunk forecast wise, and also open up some uncertainty in the low temperature forecast. Warmer air off the surface shifts into the Dakotas, with surface winds more south southwest this time. so am going with the 50th percentile which is a few degrees warmer.
Since sunrise, the visible satellite imagery shows the low stratus starting to mix out over Cincinnati and Louisville and expect most if not all to clear out later this morning or at the latest early afternoon. Throughout today, the aforementioned upper trough will move off to the east, and in doing so it will cause upper flow to transition into zonal flow by tomorrow morning. This combined with increasing mid/upper level heights and low level thicknesses should make each subsequent day warmer than the previous heading into the weekend.
602 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 (Today) The surface cold front has made it through the entire CWA within the last 6 hours taking with it lingering high clouds and ushering in much cooler air tonight. While we have high confidence our freeze warning will verify for temperatures below 32 degrees, with the higher winds, temperatures may not fall below 28 degrees prior to sunrise.
This is due to surface ridging continuing to be the main synoptic factor influencing local conditions.
Low temperatures in cold spots fell into the low teens and could still briefly touch into the single digits before sunrise, so if you have an early start to the day, be ready for the cold. A quiet day will follow for the region, but the arrival of some high cloud cover in the late morning to early afternoon will keep temperatures well below normal, in the lower to middle 30s.
Thus, temperatures will be on the cooler side once again today, generally upper 50s to lower 60s across the lowlands and 40s in the highest terrain.
549 AM MDT Wed Nov 1 2023 The cold airmass over the region will continue to slowly erode over the next few days as upper ridge in the Pacific Northwest translates eastward with warmer air spilling across the Continental Divide.
High pressure brings one last day of dry and stagnant conditions.
117 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 It will be a very chilly start to November, with highs only in the low 40s this afternoon.
High pressure over the region today and tomorrow will result in above average daytime temperatures. (This evening through Thursday) High pressure still in place over the region will result in another warm afternoon. Look for temperatures to range from the upper 60s along the immediate coast, 70s inland, and our warmer spots peaking at or above 80 degrees.
347 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 - Lake effect snow tapers off after daybreak - Sunny and quiet weather returns with high pressure building in High pressure centered over the Central Plains is extending ridging into the Great Lakes for today, which should lead to more sunshine and generally dry conditions today. This has kept temperatures several degrees warmer than expected across the southern UP, but with skies clearing out and a couple more hours until daybreak, we should still see some readings in the lower to mid teens. A mid level closed low rotates over Hudson Bay, slowly shifting eastward through the weekend with ridging over the U.
Mid level water vapor imagery depicts a fierce artic high pressure system marching across the Great Plains and subsequently shoving a cold front south through South Florida. Temperatures across the island chain peak in the lower 80s with very little cloud cover (let alone shower activity) to push them back down. While the cold front is passing through our area, it brings with it another slog of maritime tropical air with little to no relief from higher dewpoints and temperatures. Recent CAM guidance has been more excited with precipitation formation tonight, likely due to increased lift via speed convergence over warmer waters.
While road temperatures generally remained right around or just above freezing, some impacts have still been felt given the heavy rates and persistence of this band. High pressure builds into the area this evening, mainly after 6pm, resulting in a shift in winds to westerly and then southerly overnight, effectively shutting off the lake-effect machine and drying out the area. Dry conditions return this evening as high pressure begins to build in across the region and winds back more westerly.
the western periphery of high pressure center is progged to remain over far Southeast Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas. Mostly clear to some passing high clouds combined with the return flow will aid in warmer afternoon temps today with forecast highs in the low/mid 50s for most of the CWA.
249 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 (Issued 250 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023) Tonight through Thursday night: Quiet weather along the edges of substantial high pressure to our south through the short term forecast period. Low temperatures tonight are expected to dip into the mid-20s, with warmer temperatures near the lakeshore.
Overnight, expect freezing temperatures for much of the forecast area with lows approaching record values. Freezing or near freezing temperatures will also be possible on Thursday Night. Deep trough across the eastern CONUS has helped to usher in a cold and dry airmass. Thursday and Thursday Night: High pressure builds in keeping the dry air in place but with lighter winds. After a cold start, weaker cold air advection should result in slightly warmer temperatures with forecast highs in the mid to upper 50s. Regardless, tonight's freezing temperatures will likely put an end to the growing season eliminating the need for a Frost Advisory. Lows will be a bit warmer with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to mid-30s.
1127 AM MDT Wed Nov 1 2023 A dirty ridge hangs over the region through the middle part of this week, which will keep the warming trend going as temps continue their rise back to seasonal normals. High pressure will steadfastly remain in the area today into tomorrow. Lows will drop into the 20s tonight, which is a bit warmer than last night thanks to the clouds and ridging.
Broad high pressure from the mid-Mississippi River Valley into the southern Great Plains will expand across much of the eastern CONUS through Thursday beneath subtle mid-level cyclonic flow.
Light freezing rain possible Thursday morning in northwest/west-central Montana valleys. The persistent inversions have kept temperatures below freezing for many valleys of western Montana, which weighs heavily into the forecast for tomorrow morning.
High pressure continues to settle over most of CONUS.
1010 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure continues to dominate the Four State this morning as a dry and cold airmass settles in for at least one more day/night. Even though select sites saw 60 deg F yesterday, given the resurgence of the airmass behind the weakening secondary cold front overnight, high temps for the most part will trend a degree or two cooler than yesterday. Another Freeze Warning has been issued for tonight as temperatures will once again near or fall below freezing. This is due to surface ridging continuing to be the main synoptic factor influencing local conditions.
(The rest of this afternoon ) Temperatures tonight wonât be quite as cold as last night with high pressure shifting east of the area and southerly winds in place. Mejia (Tonight through Wednesday) Low-level warm advection will increase through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend, with surface ridging centered across the eastern CONUS.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Broad high pressure over the lower Texas coast and deep South Texas/RGV. Still seeing some after effects of the recent cold front. A weak short wave trough will transit over the middle and upper Texas coast Thursday and Thursday night, but other than a fe extra clouds, nothing germaine for our CWA.
1227 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 (Today through Thursday night) An upper level trough to the east, and ridge to the west has the FA under northwest flow aloft. With the ridge building a bit more tomorrow highs should end up in the upper 60s tomorrow afternoon. For tomorrow, winds are expected to subside to 15 mph or less as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure continues to gradually build overhead. Overnight lows are looking to stay a bit warmer both tonight and tomorrow night. Then many areas are expected to stay above freezing going into tomorrow night after seeing the afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s.
High pressure over the region will allow a slow warming trend to continue through the end of the week.
215 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure will settle east of central Illinois providing fair weather conditions and a southwest breeze through the remainder of the work week.
Broad upper troughing sits over the eastern seaboard while a dry cold front extends through southern Florida. Strong high pressure builds in behind this front from the northwest and will help usher in some cooler air for the next 36 hours. Temperatures will slowly rise this afternoon only into the low to mid 70's for north and central Florida and upper 70's to around 80 for southwest Florida. By Thursday, the high pressure center will be located over the mid-Atlantic states and will continue to ridge southwest over Florida producing northeasterly winds.
131 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023 Aviation -Cold and clear the next two days In the wake of the exiting upper level trough a positively tilted ridge will stifle any residual instability. High pressure through the mid levels will move northward as upper level zonal flow will dominate the weather for the next few days. Southwest flow in the lower levels will result in some warm air advection helping temperatures warm a few degrees each day.
----BMickelson Previous discussion: The cold airmass over the region will continue to slowly erode over the next few days as upper ridge in the Pacific Northwest translates eastward with warmer air spilling across the Continental Divide.
1253 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 High pressure continues to dominate the Four State this morning as a dry and cold airmass settles in for at least one more day/night. Even though select sites saw 60 deg F yesterday, given the resurgence of the airmass behind the weakening secondary cold front overnight, high temps for the most part will trend a degree or two cooler than yesterday. Another Freeze Warning has been issued for tonight as temperatures will once again near or fall below freezing. This is due to surface ridging continuing to be the main synoptic factor influencing local conditions.
121 PM MDT Wed Nov 1 2023 Western ridge will break down this period, with a northwest flow early in the period transitioning to a zonal flow by the end of the period.