Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Hazy today as smoke from Canadian wildfires feeds into the region with an upper trough passage. An upper level trough will be moving across the eastern Conus today, while at the surface, high pressure will extend along the Appalachians. With the low level flow in the TN Valley being mainly W-NW through the day, moisture and instability will be quite limited. Ongoing convection in IL/MO at the moment will track E-SE with the trough, but this should weaken and dissipate before reaching our area.
We will include some low POPs this morning in the Ponca City- Stillwater corridor, although the higher potential looks to be farther northeast. Otherwise the mid-level ridge begins building into the area with associated warming temperatures. Western portions of the area will likely not meet the higher Heat Advisory criteria that are in place there.
(Today through Tuesday) A summer cold front made it through most of the area and will begin to wash out today and tonight. High pressure with a very dry airmass has moved in behind the front and will keep the area fairly dry over the next few days. With drier air comes warmer temperatures.
Strong mid level high pressure currently centered across the 4 Corners, is progged to shift east today through Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a weak Pacific cold front this afternoon and evening as it moves across the region. Tuesday will be cooler and windy behind the front with high temperatures in the 80s. Strong winds aloft will impact the higher terrain during the morning before mixing brings them down to the lower elevations during the afternoon, especially out west. Regarding temperatures today, models have backed off on the upper 90s for most areas with highs today in the low to mid 90s.
Forecast soundings are not showing an optimal setup for this afternoon as the atmosphere looks to be capped due to warmer air aloft and much of the positive energy remains well above the surface. Temperatures Tuesday will be a bit cooler than Monday and humidity levels will decrease.
Smoke is on the way out as cold front pushes south through the area today. Discussion: A cold front was found just north of I80 in Iowa and then just north of I88 in Illinois. Sub 60 degree dewpoint air was moving into northern Iowa and expected to settle in place behind the cold front. Early this morning, some showers and storms formed over western Iowa, coincident with the cold front and a weak wave in the flow. CAMs agree this is a possibility as they continue to percolate showers and storms until the cold front exits the area. Near surface smoke is expected to finally pull out of the area today as high pressure settles in behind the cold front.
1230 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Looks like typical summertime temperatures through the early part of the week, but with weak high pressure bringing a drier air mass, rain chances look very low. Otherwise, broad upper trofing will remain to our north thru the period with the trof axis sliding just east of the MS River Valley towards the end of the period tomorrow night. At the sfc, weak high pressure will spread over the fcst area from the NW overnight, but gradually weaken thru the day tomorrow. In addition, dewpts are expected to mix a fair amount during the afternoon tomorrow and dip into the low to mid 60s across the lower terrain during peak heating.
The large-scale weather pattern across the Florida Keys is best characterized by deep, but weak subtropical ridging. Dominant weather systems include two large deep layer mean subtropical anticyclones (one centered over the Desert Southwest, the other centered over the central subtropical Atlantic), an expansive midlatitude cyclonic gyre centered over Canada but spreading cyclonic flow well south into the central CONUS, and the trade wind belt (currently confined to the Caribbean basin).
The upper level pattern is currently dominated by a large trough centered over the Great Lakes and eastern US as a persistent ridge holds over the southwest.
Highs will be in the low to mid 70s today, with lows in the low to mid 50s. As for Tuesday, guidance is beginning to agree on the placement of a low pressure system in the northern plains.
(Today through Tuesday) High heat and summertime convection will be likely once again through the short term period as high pressure remains in place over the Florida peninsula. Generally southwesterly flow along the periphery of the high will favor increased diurnal heating and a delayed start to convective activity, which will develop along the Gulf Breeze boundary as it works inland towards the East Coast.
Highs today will be cooler; ranging from the middle to upper 60s across the north to the middle 70s across east-central Wisconsin. Highs on Tuesday will be a bit warmer than today; ranging from the middle 70s across the north to around 80 across central and east-central Wisconsin.
Sadly, we are looking at high temperatures peaking between 100 to 104 degrees F today and Tuesday for much of the inland portions, the upper 90s along the southernmost portions and in the low to mid 90s along the immediate coasts and Barrier Islands. Very little relief will be felt at overnight as the low temperatures remain in the upper 70s to low 80s and dewpoints in the 70s.
Strengthening of the low level jet during the evening may keep convection active on the western flank of expected cold pool and/or along slowing front across our southwest and south-central counties.
A cold front will move through on Monday, followed by breezy west-northwest winds in the afternoon. The upper level flow has shifted to southwesterly this afternoon as the ridge axis moves eastward. In addition, a cold front is still on track to arrive Monday afternoon, introducing more widespread breezy winds for far east Oregon and southwest Idaho. Conditions will return to dry on Tuesday, with temperatures near-normal behind the cold front.
The main culprit will be the re- expansion eastward of the strong upper high centered over the Desert Southwest and Southern Rockies currently.
This will allow for a resurgence in pops with the highest in the strongest heating of the day in the early to late afternoon. This evening, a -15 dam anomaly 500mb trough is over the region while ridging is breaking down over the central CONUS and a trough is progressing through the Canadian Rockies. With the upper level pattern in motion again, the ridge that was over the west coast will be pushed over the Upper Midwest, leading to a more dry Tuesday for the western portions of the UP. The upper trough that's been over Ontario lately is trending more stubborn though, leading to some midlevel vorticity still sticking around the east half, and combined with lift from a CAM-proposed Lake Michigan lake breeze and diurnal instability, a few showers are possible Tuesday afternoon.
218 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Current 500 mb analysis shows the upper ridge centered over the western CONUS with northwesterly flow over the area. Low temperatures fall into the low to middle 60s. On Monday, the upper ridge continues to shift east. Upper ridge axis will be over the Great Basin early in the period resulting in northwest flow over the plains.
148 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 A deep upper level low for mid July will remain over eastern Canada into mid week. Again, a weak cold frontal boundary drifting southeast from the Great Lakes will bring a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms beginning late Monday afternoon across the Northwest and Tuesday across the Susquehanna Valley and points east.
The upper ridge currently centered over AZ slowly slides eastward over the next 24-36hrs as the large upper trough over the Great Lakes departs and the next trough moving into the Pacific NW flattens it some. The ridge is centered over New Mexico and far west Texas on Tuesday, sending highs up a few more degrees. The result maintains Heat Advisory criteria areawide with Excessive Heat found in the higher elevations.
Through the early portion of the work week, a relatively stationary amplified H500 flow pattern wl persist across the CONUS, w/ ridging over the Cont Divide, and troughing across the Great Lakes region.
The main upper level ridge over the Southwestern U.
Fortunately, better support sinks south of the CWA along west/east oriented upper trough.
Meanwhile, a strong ridge of high pressure continues to build across the southwest US. Afternoon highs top out in the lower 90s. The highest chances are focused across central into south central Missouri as the upper-level ridge builds east out of the southwest US.
212 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Generally quiet weather this morning with the region on the northern fringe of an area of high pressure. A passing cold front will bring showers on Tuesday again, but will then lead to drier less humid weather for the mid- week time frame. A cold front and tropical moisture plume will exit off the New England coast overnight, while high pressure over the Ohio valley will extend to the northeast over our region. Otherwise, a persistent and anomalously deep closed low centered over northern Ontario will maintain a cyclonic flow over our forecast area.
The overall synoptic setup today looks similar to Sun, except it's even more "troughy" both surface and aloft. Deep layer light-moderate WSW flow continues south of the mean trough axis, with PWAT values 2. Once again, see no reason to stray much from the high NBM POPs, which support numerous to widespread diurnal showers and storms.
Visibilities have already improved from Mobridge to Watertown this afternoon and are expected to improve near Pierre by evening. High pressure builds in from the northwest tonight and Monday. As the high pushes east, southeast sfc flow will help draw some higher dewpoints into the region ahead of lee side troughing on the Rockies. On Tuesday we'll have the suppressed 500mb ridge overhead with the next low over southern Saskatchewan. The surface features will remain a little busier, with an area of low pressure stretching from Alberta through the western Dakotas through western KS at daybreak.
549 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Scattered thunderstorms will develop ahead of a slow-moving cold front this afternoon. Further north, the remainder of central Illinois will remain dry until a cold front currently extending from near Milwaukee to just north of Kansas City settles southward and triggers widely scattered convection later this morning into the afternoon. After a few lingering showers/storms across the SE CWA this evening, cooler/drier conditions will filter southward overnight. High temperatures today will mostly be in the lower to middle 80s, while lows tonight dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Meanwhile, a broad upper low stretches from Central Ontario into the Northern Great Lakes region. At the surface, cold front extends generally along I-80 across Iowa and Nebraska with high pressure across the Northern Plains. Additional storm will be possible this afternoon along a sagging cold front over northeast KS/north-central MO with this activity tracking southeast this afternoon. Latest guidance does have the cold front moving into central KS which may keep the extreme heat out of a handful of counties. This will allow a cold front to sink down into the area and will bring storm chances to the area for Wed night. The better rain chances will push south and west for Fri through the weekend with the bigger story being much cooler temps.
545 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2023 While today will be one more hot day, slightly cooler weather is on the way as a Pacific front pushes through the area today. Ahead of this trough, it will be another warm day today, as highs climb to the upper 80s to low 90s by late morning. As we head towards noon, the upper level trough will begin to push into the area, kicking off a line of showers and thunderstorms along a surface cold front, which will quickly march across North Central and Southwestern Montana during the afternoon. Behind the line of showers and thunderstorms, winds will increase as cooler air rushes into the area. Beyond today, most of the rest of the week will be rather quiet as upper level ridging gradually builds back into the area.
612 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 (Today and tonight) High pressure will continue to build across the region driving temperatures even higher for today. Pretty much all of our models continue this high pressure across the region giving us high confidence in this forecast.
The upper-lvl pattern continues to support lingering smoke across the region as a low pressure system remains situated north of the Great Lakes. Forecast soundings are not showing an optimal setup for this afternoon as the atmosphere looks to be capped due to warmer air aloft and much of the positive energy remains well above the surface. Temperatures Tuesday will be a bit cooler than Monday and humidity levels will decrease.
935 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Scattered thunderstorms will develop ahead of a slow-moving cold front this afternoon. However, surface observations have been focusing the lower visibility of 3-5 miles across the northern third of the forecast area. Further north, the remainder of central Illinois will remain dry until a cold front currently extending from near Milwaukee to just north of Kansas City settles southward and triggers widely scattered convection later this morning into the afternoon. After a few lingering showers/storms across the SE CWA this evening, cooler/drier conditions will filter southward overnight. High temperatures today will mostly be in the lower to middle 80s, while lows tonight dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
329 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2023 While today will be one more hot day, slightly cooler weather is on the way as a Pacific front pushes through the area today. Ahead of this trough, it will be another warm day today, as highs climb to the upper 80s to low 90s by late morning. As we head towards noon, the upper level trough will begin to push into the area, kicking off a line of showers and thunderstorms along a surface cold front, which will quickly march across North Central and Southwestern Montana during the afternoon. Behind the line of showers and thunderstorms, winds will increase as cooler air rushes into the area. Beyond today, most of the rest of the week will be rather quiet as upper level ridging gradually builds back into the area.
Latest IR satellite imagery shows mid to upper level moisture moving northeastward around the periphery of the ridge. That feature will continue to flatten and shift eastward the high pressure over NRN California today. The low level inversion is expected to eventually weaken today allowing more clearing along the coast. High temperatures across interior valleys are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler compared to the weekend, and that modestly cooler weather is forecast to last through at least Tuesday.
346 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Summer finally makes its presence known today, as high pressure ridge builds across western WY. The ridge is too weak this far north, and will get sheared off by the next trough sweeps across the northern US. This trough will also bring along a cold front. The trough successfully flattens the ridge for a couple days, holding back the heat ridge for a few days, and bringing some Pacific moisture into souther WY.
731 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 (Today through Tuesday) High heat and summertime convection will be likely once again through the short term period as high pressure remains in place over the Florida peninsula. Generally southwesterly flow along the periphery of the high will favor increased diurnal heating and a delayed start to convective activity, which will develop along the Gulf Breeze boundary as it works inland towards the East Coast.
730 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 High pressure briefly builds across the area today.
(Now through Tuesday) A broad upper level trough will remain in place today before sliding east tonight into Tuesday. This dry air mixing down has lowed sfc dewpoints into the low 70s across much of the area. Highs today will again be in the low to mid 90s, but lower dewpoints will keep heat index values just below advisory criteria. The upper ridge over the southwest will expand eastward on Tuesday. The stronger subsidence from the building upper ridge will keep most areas dry on Tuesday outside of an isolated shower or thunderstorm near the coast. The building ridge will lead to even hotter temps on Tuesday with highs in the mid and upper 90s away from the coast.
508 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Summer finally makes its presence known today, as high pressure ridge builds across western WY. The ridge is too weak this far north, and will get sheared off by the next trough sweeps across the northern US. This trough will also bring along a cold front. The trough successfully flattens the ridge for a couple days, holding back the heat ridge for a few days, and bringing some Pacific moisture into souther WY.
626 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 (Today and tonight) The heat returns to the forecast area today as the 600 dam 500 mb ridge expands towards us. At the surface, troughing will also develop leading to a return of southerly to southwesterly winds around 15 mph across the area.
1032 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 High pressure briefly builds across the area today.
Highs will increase into the lower to mid 90s this afternoon, and high sea surface temperatures in concert with light winds will result in another muggy day.
632 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 (Today through Tuesday) A summer cold front made it through most of the area and will begin to wash out today and tonight. High pressure with a very dry airmass has moved in behind the front and will keep the area fairly dry over the next few days. With drier air comes warmer temperatures.
551 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 High pressure briefly builds across the area today.
As mid-level ridging strengthens and builds eastward over AZ/NM tonight into Tuesday, ambient air temperatures may rise a degree or two on Tuesday, but similar maximum heat indices are expected during the afternoon.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) Upper-level ridge across the desert southwest to begin to build eastward during the short-term period ending Tuesday night. Accordingly, subsidence associated with the ridge will allow for temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 90s along and north of I-20 and to 100 to 103 degrees south. With dewpoint values in the lower 70s, heat index values will exceed 105 degrees areawide prompting a continuation of the the ongoing Heat Advisory through Tuesday.
154 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 A cold front is making southeastward progress out of Wisconsin early this morning, and upstream dewpoints are dropping through the 50s and into the upper 40s. Lingering dewpoints in the low to mid 60s south of the Illinois and Kankakee Rivers will result in just a bit of surface-based instability with heating today.
(Today and tonight) High pressure will continue to build across the region driving temperatures even higher for today. Pretty much all of our models continue this high pressure across the region giving us high confidence in this forecast. The upper level ridge, which is currently centered near the AZ/NM line, is expected to expand eastward while flattening as an upper level trough moves east across the northern CONUS and into the Great Lakes area.
As of 9 AM MDT more thunderstorms were developing north of Hells Canyon due to a cold front approaching from the west.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Mesoscale forcing will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida as mid-level ridging remains entrenched over our area and much of the southern United States. The prolonged stretch of excessive heat will continue once again today with high temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s by the early afternoon. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s across the area with heat indices reaching the 105-110F range once again.
246 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 A cold front will push through the region tonight and Tuesday with the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Upper level trough moving through Western Washington this morning. Upper level ridge building offshore tonight moving over the area Tuesday.
the strong ridge of high pressure that has been centered over the Desert Southwest is progged to begin expanding eastward with rising heights from southwest to northeast across the CWA. the ridge should continue to expand across the Southern Plains with few/scattered cloud cover remaining by early morning Tuesday. (Tomorrow through Monday) The dome of high pressure will be the dominate feature across the Southern Plains through mid week. Underneath this ridge. the low level thermal axis is forecast to shift eastward with the help of breezy to gusty southwesterly flow.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Central Alabama currently resides in the base of the longwave trough that exists across the eastern CONUS. Otherwise, we'll really start to heat up through the short term period as highs top out in the low to mid 90s areawide this afternoon. The upper level ridge will start to expand eastward during the day on Tuesday, with low-level moisture also expected to increase.
326 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 The surface analysis shows a cold front is heading toward the Ohio Valley. A rather active period is on tap as a strong ridge of high pressure remains in place over the Desert Southwest. While this ridge stays in place, upper-level flow will remain largely out of the northwest. Models are largely in agreement of multiple MCSs moving out the Central Plains riding along along the ridging into the Commonwealth.
A cold front is still expected to cross the region this afternoon and produce gusty west to southwesterly winds area-wide through late this evening. High pressure will once again build to our west and gradually shift directly over the Northern Rockies by the end of the week into the weekend.
237 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 A cold front will push through the region tonight and Tuesday with the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.
1153 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Summer finally makes its presence known today, as high pressure ridge builds across western WY. The ridge is too weak this far north, and will get sheared off by the next trough sweeps across the northern US. This trough will also bring along a cold front. The trough successfully flattens the ridge for a couple days, holding back the heat ridge for a few days, and bringing some Pacific moisture into souther WY.
1246 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Cooler start this morning thanks to convection/outflow from storms yesterday afternoon/evening.
The mid/upr short wave trough axis currently just west of the mountains will move east and gradually cross our area during the late afternoon. Given the dry air that we're currently seeing to our west and southwest, the west to southwest flow ahead of the trough axis won't be advecting much moisture into our area. As such, with the arrival of the trough axis and assoc large scale ascent, coupled with cooling aloft as noted on forecast soundings, locations that see the highest dwpts. By Tuesday evening the trough axis should be to our east, thus look for partly cloudy and dry weather for Tuesday night. Mid to late week will be hot as the upper level ridge over the Southwest US slowly expands to the east by late week.
Fog seems plausible again tonight across the northern cwa, where temperatures are expected to be in the lower 50s. Tuesday will be similar to today, but a couple degrees warmer.
An upper-level ridge continues to build in overhead, bringing in warm and dry as well as kicking any decent synoptic forcing to our north. High temperatures across the plains will reach into the high-90s to just over 100, while the high valleys stay in the low-90s.
A strong upper level ridge currently over the Desert Southwest will edge over Texas and continue to dominate the weather pattern for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the short term.