Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As a cold front pushes southeast into our forecast area at this hour, temperatures range from a cool 60 degrees at Greenville, MS to balmier mid 70s in southern MS/LA.
Precip types within these showers range from rain to graupel/sleet (observed at our office) to snow across central MN where slightly cooler air resides. The showers will slowly become less widespread/taper off heading through tonight into Saturday as the low fills and CAA continues.
605 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023 High pressure will slowly lift away to the northeast tonight into Saturday.
An upper level low pressure system continues to spin across the Upper Midwest this afternoon. A stratus field was rotating towards the area on the southern periphery of the low with scattered rain/snow showers working southeast from northern and western Iowa beneath the cool air aloft. An unseasonably cool airmass will remain entrenched over the area into the weekend as the upper level trough stubbornly persists across the Great Lakes. Otherwise, with forecast low temps in the low 30s for western/northern counties, will convert the Freeze Watch to a Warning for tonight. However, by late week a cold front could approach with increasing rain chances, but models vary in the timing and strength of this system.
Otherwise, high pressure offshore will continue promoting dry weather and a warming trend into the weekend.
Chances will remain on the lower side for appreciable rainfall overnight with weak conditional instability in the mid levels and a fairly dry subcloud layer.
Meanwhile, a mid latitude trough is digging southeastward towards the southeastern United States with a some degree of phasing with a jet streak in the southern stream. Expect overnight lows to generally fall in the mid 70s, although some protected locations could slip into the lower 70s due to radiational cooling.
930 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 Light snow continues to fall across the James River Valley as the upper low slowly progresses eastward. A stacked closed low is still placed over northeast Minnesota this morning, with light snow persisting across parts of central and most of eastern North Dakota. Today's upper low begins to split on Saturday, although it does not move much, keeping northwest flow and cooler temperatures over the forecast area.
615 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 A trough of low pressure is swinging through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest into the Mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon. This trough is driving a cold front ahead of it through our area.
731 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023 A deep low pressure system over the upper Mississippi Valley will push a cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms through the Mid Atlantic region on Saturday.
A weak ridge moves over the region for Saturday bringing warm and drier conditions.
826 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023 Shower chances will increase through the night with the approach and passage of a cold front. By the afternoon, shower activity will become more isolated with dry, cold advection occurring behind the front but continued jet ascent with the nearby positioning of the upper trough axis.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will cross the area overnight along a cold front, exiting Saturday morning. Cooler temperatures build in behind the front on Saturday. Discussion: The mild pattern that we have been experiencing over the past few days will come to an end tonight as a deep upper trough pushes a cold front through the area. However, the upper trough axis will still be crossing the area through the day, and cooling midlevel temperatures and steep low level lapse rates could generate some isolated to scattered showers, mainly in the northern half of the area.
637 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 (This evening through Saturday) There is potential for isolated thunderstorms to develop in a modified warm sector, ahead of a secondary cold front, late Saturday afternoon across mainly the Heartland and eastern 2/3 of the Concho Valley. Highs Saturday will range from the lower to mid 70s across the Northern Big Country to the mid 80s west of an Ballinger to Junction line.
530 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2023 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Scattered snow showers will diminish this evening, as an upper level ridge of high pressure tries to build into Western MT.
444 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2023 Current analysis shows stacked low pressure over far northeast MN. Conditions will continue to gradually improve late today into this evening as the low pressure system moves further away from the region.
1043 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023 A cold front will push southeast of the area tonight bringing widespread rainfall overnight. Cooler air moves in from the west for the weekend and the start of the workweek. With the passage of the cold front temperatures have dropped and will continue to drop overnight. Lows overnight will be in the low to middle 40s. A low pressure system continues to pull northeast of the Ohio Valley on Saturday. Much cooler air works in behind the low on westerly flow. Cool, westerly flow persists Saturday night thanks to the broad area of low pressure remaining northeast of the area. Cloud cover should diminish somewhat overnight with diurnal instability fading off, but some clouds remain with upper troughing in place.
911 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023 High pressure will slowly lift away to the northeast tonight into Saturday.
The anticipated cold front is now stretched across the southeastern portions of our forecast area. As a cold front pushes southeast into our forecast area at this hour, temperatures range from a cool 60 degrees at Greenville, MS to balmier mid 70s in southern MS/LA.
930 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 Rain and thunderstorms continue moving across Middle Tennessee this evening in association with an upper trough axis sweeping across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. 5" look feasible with the higher amounts in the west where shower activity has been ongoing through the day so far. A reinforcing shot of cooler air will move into the area Saturday afternoon/evening with some models showing a slight chance of an isolated shower along the northern plateau Saturday afternoon.
Some mid and high clouds will be streaming over the area tonight, and a surge of cooler air will also arrive later tonight across much of northeast OK and northwest AR, resulting in an increase in northwest winds.
927 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023 Shower chances will increase through the night with the approach and passage of a cold front. By the afternoon, shower activity will become more isolated with dry, cold advection occurring behind the front but continued jet ascent with the nearby positioning of the upper trough axis.
538 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023 A cold front will bring a period of unsettled weather to the region tonight and especially on Saturday.
713 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through the night with the approach and passage of a surface cold front. Current meso analysis shows MLCAPE waning to less than 250 j/kg along a surface cold front across Eastern Ohio/Western PA. A surface cold front currently stalled across western Ohio will attempt to slowly track east through the overnight period, utilizing an advancing upper trough axis to regain its eastward movement. The rest of the region will generally remain dry under subsidence, with a light shower could develop over the higher terrain with some ridge top convergence. By the afternoon, shower activity will become more isolated with dry, cold advection occurring behind the front but continued jet ascent with the nearby positioning of the upper trough axis.
641 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low moving into the Western Great Lakes region with strong northwest flow from the Northern Rockies through the Plains. At the surface, low pressure is stacked under the upper low over the Upper Mississippi Valley with northwest winds continuing to pump below normal temps into the region. This will provide subfreezing temps early Sat morning for areas generally along and north of I-70, with the remainder of the area in the mid 30s.
615 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 (This evening through Saturday) One last mild day was underway ahead of an unseasonably strong cold front poised to sweep through the region early Saturday morning. This low will migrate across the South Plains tonight in response to surface ridging plunging south. NBM looks too mild with highs across the board, so opted to blend in some of the lower CONSSHORT values for this pattern.
759 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023 A slow-moving cold front will bring a period of unsettled weather to the region tonight and especially on Saturday.
739 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023 A slow-moving cold front will bring a period of unsettled weather to the region tonight and especially on Saturday.
The low clouds and mid level northwest upslope flow with weak embedded energy have kept flurries over much of Central and Southwest Montana this evening. -Coulston Scattered snow showers will diminish this evening, as an upper level ridge of high pressure tries to build into Western MT.
804 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023 A deep low pressure system over the upper Mississippi Valley will push a cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms through the Mid Atlantic region on Saturday.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: As the upper level low that has brought the area with the broad area of light snow showers departs further to ECONUS, Montana is forecast to be under NW flow through the weekend.
This is supported by steep low level lapse rates and moisture in the low levels on forecast soundings. Highs in the lower to middle 40s Saturday will feel like middle 30s with the increasing west winds. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s. The core of the upper level low that is currently located over northern Minnesota will rotate southward into the area tonight and tomorrow. The increased cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures cooler, with highs only expected to be in the low to mid 40s.
(Rest of tonight) A cold front has brought a stronger line of thunderstorms that has reached NE AL-- bringing heavy rainfall, small hail, frequent lightning, and gusty winds to the TN Valley.
703 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 (This Evening and Tonight) Clouds have overspread the region this afternoon as a cold front and its associated showers (and a few storms) approach the area from the west. As the front shoves eastward late tonight into early Saturday morning, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with cooler air filtering in as lows will drop to the upper 40s to lower 50s.
701 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 Rain will be ending this evening across the Mid-South as a cold front moves out of the region.
538 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023 A deep low pressure system over the upper Mississippi Valley will push a cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms through the Mid Atlantic region on Saturday.
810 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023 A cold front will push southeast of the area tonight bringing widespread rainfall overnight. Cooler air moves in from the west for the weekend and the start of the workweek. A SW-NE oriented cold front is slowly progressing southeast through the area early this afternoon. Winds shift to the north overnight as the low pulls the front through. Cooler air works in behind the front by sunrise. A low pressure system continues to pull northeast of the Ohio Valley on Saturday. Much cooler air works in behind the low on westerly flow. Cool, westerly flow persists Saturday night thanks to the broad area of low pressure remaining northeast of the area. Cloud cover should diminish somewhat overnight with diurnal instability fading off, but some clouds remain with upper troughing in place.
A broad and slow moving ridge will push through the northern CONUS behind the departing trough, lingering in the area through the better part of the week with slowly increasing temperatures and dry conditions as a result.
Tonight and Saturday Jet streaks rotating around an upper low over the Northern Great Lakes will produce scattered snow and rain showers, mainly across Northcentral Wisconsin tonight and over the entire area Saturday.
156 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023 (Rest of tonight) A cold front has brought a stronger line of thunderstorms that has reached NE AL-- bringing heavy rainfall, small hail, frequent lightning, and gusty winds to the TN Valley.
1033 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2023 Current analysis shows stacked low pressure over far northeast MN. Conditions will continue to gradually improve late today into this evening as the low pressure system moves further away from the region. Closer to average temps can be expected on Sunday as Canadian high pressure over the region starts to slide east of the area, with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
High pressure will prevail across the greater region. For Saturday, a tranquil weather pattern is expected as high pressure continues to prevail across the greater region. Highs tomorrow should top out in the lower to mid 50s. Some minor good news with the cooler highs is that the fire danger will be low tomorrow and we can get a continued break from the fire danger. Winds will increase behind a cold front this morning and we should see winds out of the northeast at around 12-18 kts with gusts to 25 kts at times through the day.
1233 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023 (This evening through Saturday) One last mild day was underway ahead of an unseasonably strong cold front poised to sweep through the region early Saturday morning. This low will migrate across the South Plains tonight in response to surface ridging plunging south. NBM looks too mild with highs across the board, so opted to blend in some of the lower CONSSHORT values for this pattern.
We're beginning to see the influence of the approaching cold front that is currently draped across the Southeast US.
1208 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023 (This evening through Sunday) To begin the period, an upper level trough will continue to eject out of the area through the afternoon and evening hours today. Quieter weather is in store for much of Saturday and Sunday as high pressure will promote calmer and quieter conditions. It would not be surprising to see areas in the higher elevations of the Ozarks get close to that freezing mark Saturday night into Sunday morning.
A Freeze Warning remains in effect for the NW half of the outlook area where temps will bottom out in the lower 30s early this morning. Forecast highs in the low to upper 40s are about 15 to 20 degrees below normal for late April; factoring in WNW winds between 15 to 30 mph, daytime wind chills will only be in the 30s and upper 20s! Tonight through Sunday Night Main story will continue to be the cold temperatures with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
(Today) Drier, post-frontal air continues to push into the TN Valley early this morning as the cold front that brought showers and storms to the area progresses eastward. Dew points have dropped into the low 50s as of 3 AM and will continue to lower into the low to mid 30s by the afternoon today.
Key Messages: - Freezing temperatures expected this morning, and near or record cold freezing temperatures Sunday morning.
(Today through Sunday) The cold front is now between I-59 and I-85 as of 1 AM and will continue to slide slowly south and east. Another cold front will swing through tonight and help kick the first front even further south. Only impacts we will see of this front is a re-enforcing shot of cooler air tonight with portions in the north reach the low 40s. High pressure builds in on Sunday with temperatures in the 60s across the north, with 70s across the rest of the area.
Key Messages: - Cold temperatures at or below freezing tonight, a freeze warning has been issued midnight through 9 am Saturday. - Freezing temperatures forecast for Saturday night. Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a high amplitude trof digging through the CONUS's mid-section. With the clear skies and negligible winds associated with the high pressure center (1025hPa+), temps will be even colder after that sun sets.
Sfc ridging will build in from the NW throughout the day and that will help set the stage for some well below normal temperatures from tonight through Sunday night. There is some concern for temperatures to fall to near freezing across northern AR by daybreak Sunday.
A deep upper level trof will move southeast into far southern Lower Michigan later today. Low temperatures should drop to or very close to freezing.
HL (This evening through Sunday night) Tonight into Saturday morning, round 2 of showers and storms is expected to move through the local area as a cold front pushes through.
Sunday will be mainly dry, as the ridge moves over the region.
100 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023 (This evening through Saturday) There is potential for isolated thunderstorms to develop in a modified warm sector, ahead of a secondary cold front, late Saturday afternoon across mainly the Heartland and eastern 2/3 of the Concho Valley. Highs Saturday will range from the lower to mid 70s across the Northern Big Country to the mid 80s west of an Ballinger to Junction line.
With high pressure building in, we should see a steady dissipation in any remaining shower activity, as well as a lessening in cloud cover across much of the region.
Scattered snow showers will diminish this evening, as an upper level ridge of high pressure tries to build into Western MT. With just an isolated rain or snow shower expected on Saturday, generally drier and slightly warmer temperatures are expected by Sunday.
Warmer conditions with more sun on Sunday as winds turn southerly at the surface.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through the early morning hours along a cold front. Cooler temperatures expected behind the front. Discussion: Currently a line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms is moving through the southern Appalachian region along an advancing cold front. Expect temperatures to be 10-15 degrees cooler than what we experienced yesterday on the backside of the cold front.
Warmer Sunday with scattered afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms.
(Today through Sunday) Upper trough over the Upper and Middle Mississippi River Valleys this morning, with upper ridging off both the Atlantic and Pacific Coastlines. At the surface, a prefrontal trough has cleared our coastal waters, and by the time the forecast is issued, the true cold front will have cleared all but lower Plaquemines Parish. High pressure will build in from the north, drying us out and bringing a mostly sunny day with comfortable temperatures and low humidities. This will likely leave high temperatures on Sunday a few degrees cooler than today.
(Now through Sunday) Zonal flow aloft will be in place through the weekend as a longwave trough remains in place over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front, which is currently moving through our area early this morning, will fully pass through the region by mid to late morning. 5 inches) will advect into the region as strong high pressure builds across much of the US. Highs for both Saturday and Sunday will range from the mid 70s to the low 80s.
The caveat is cooler temperatures that are expected across the very far northern Permian Basin. These locations may not climb out of the 60s as a seasonally strong cold front begins to enter the region. Temperatures quickly tumble behind the cold front as it quickly works its way south later this evening. The one exception is across portions of the Lower Trans Pecos where the retreating dryline and cold front are forecast to intersect. These features aide isentropic ascent over the cold front. 60s are likely along the Pecos River Valley and much of the higher terrain with the only warm spots being along the Rio Grande.
138 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023 High pressure will slowly lift away to the northeast tonight into Saturday.
1018 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low moving into the Western Great Lakes region with strong northwest flow from the Northern Rockies through the Plains. At the surface, low pressure is stacked under the upper low over the Upper Mississippi Valley with northwest winds continuing to pump below normal temps into the region. This will provide subfreezing temps early Sat morning for areas generally along and north of I-70, with the remainder of the area in the mid 30s.
A cold front has allowed for overnight temperatures to drop into the 40s across the Mid-South. Expect temperatures today to be cooler with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.
154 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023 A cold front will push southeast of the area tonight bringing widespread rainfall overnight. Cooler air moves in from the west for the weekend and the start of the workweek. A low pressure system continues to pull northeast of the Ohio Valley on Saturday. Much cooler air works in behind the low on westerly flow. Cool, westerly flow persists Saturday night thanks to the broad area of low pressure remaining northeast of the area. Cloud cover should diminish somewhat overnight with diurnal instability fading off, but some clouds remain with upper troughing in place. A few showers may linger behind a cold front on Sunday.
The showers will likely continue overnight and gradually diminish as the ridge axis moves onshore.
Although the boundary layer remains fairly dry, this may be sufficient light rain to reach the ground by afternoon across mainly the northeastern three-quarters of OK this afternoon after a cold front passes through the state. By this evening, 850mb-level moisture will move northward over the cooler surface air mass toward north central Texas and southern Oklahoma. Early Sunday morning temperatures in northern Oklahoma are expected to be near and just above freezing, so an advisory is not anticipated.
Water vapor shows us in northwest flow aloft with the main upper low spinning over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. This low will continue to work its way slowly east over that region in the coming days. Tonight will be another cold night with lighter winds and mainly clear skies with continued high pressure. A Freeze Warning is in effect for sub-freezing temperatures and even quite a few areas of hard freeze temperatures (28 degrees or below) tonight. Sunday will be another dry day though slightly warmer with highs right around either side of 60. Winds will be fairly light and turn southerly as the ridge axis moves through.
(Today and Tonight) Pre-frontal trough pushing through the region at the moment with mainly just mid-high clouds over NE FL/SE GA, while shower and isolated storms have developed over the Atlantic Coastal waters and these features will slowly pull off towards the NE by sunrise with some partial clearing and patchy fog development possible over inland areas. Isolated shower/storm activity will remain possible as the trailing cold frontal boundary pushes through NE FL during the evening hours, pushing south of the region after midnight, with clearing skies and increasing North winds after midnight, becoming breezy along the Atlantic Coast.
1045 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 A trough of low pressure is swinging through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest into the Mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon. This trough is driving a cold front ahead of it through our area. This translates to highs mainly in the upper 40s to mid 50s in most locations (slightly warmer in the upper 50s in parts of southeast Missouri) and lows dipping into the mid and upper 30s tonight, and then the upper 20s to mid 30s both Saturday night and Sunday night.
327 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023 High pressure will slowly lift away to the northeast through today.
1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023 Rain and thunderstorms continue moving across Middle Tennessee this evening in association with an upper trough axis sweeping across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. 5" look feasible with the higher amounts in the west where shower activity has been ongoing through the day so far. A reinforcing shot of cooler air will move into the area Saturday afternoon/evening with some models showing a slight chance of an isolated shower along the northern plateau Saturday afternoon.