Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, temperatures are in the lower 70s with dew points in the lower 60s, which are a few degrees higher than yesterday. Temperatures will continue to gradually moderate as the influence of the cold front erode. Expect daytime highs to reach to near 80 or possibly a degree or two warmer.
Otherwise, high pressure will continue to shift a bit east into the high plains with gradually clearing of any high clouds overnight. Lows will be in the lower 40s east to near 50 west. NW flow remains over the area as high pressure ridging controls the inter-Rockies.
Extending south from the low pressure center is a cold front that has moved southeast through our forecast area. Skies quickly clear behind this band, allowing temperatures to climb into the low 70s where clearing occurs at least a few hours before sunset. Over the next few days, the upper trough will shift farther east, allowing heights to slowly build across the Plains.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Other than some high clouds across the Lower Valley and some low clouds across the Lower Texas beaches, sunny skies are in store for the rest of this afternoon. Overnight low temps are forecast to stay in the lower to mid 60s. A cold front is forecast to push across Central Texas on Thursday and will stall over South Central Texas. Therefore, southerly flow will stay in control over the Deep South with high temps in the lower 90s across most places under partly to mostly cloudy skies (mainly high clouds). Clearing is forecast on Thursday night with overnight low temps in the lower to mid 60s.
1126 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will be drifting east across the commonwealth today and bring with it, gradually improving weather conditions are expected through Thursday.
This will cause low temperatures to fall into the 50s overnight tonight, with the lowest temperatures seen across low-lying areas.
The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis is showing an amplified ridge over the western portion of the country, with a cutoff low north and east of the CWA. This is giving the region NW flow aloft, that will persist into the Fri-Fri night timeframe, with the upper ridge making a slow trek eastward through the Rockies.
1223 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 The warming trend will continue through this afternoon as a ridge remains over the MidSouth. Highs are expected to range in the low to mid 70s. Furthermore, a cold front is currently in the upper Mississippi Valley and extending southwest into the Central Plains. As the cold front continues to push east, a few light showers will enter the MidSouth this evening. Dry weather and warmer temperatures are expected today with highs in the low to mid 70s. Scattered showers will move across mainly northern and western section of the Mid-South tonight as a cold front moves into northwest Arkansas. The cold front will cross the Mississippi River by late Thursday afternoon with more showers moving across the region.
(This evening through Thursday night) High pressure will continue to shift eastward today as the upper trough over the east coast flattens and lifts northeastward and another upper low dives into the upper Mississippi Valley. It'll still be cool, but temperatures will likely only drop to near normal, bottoming out in the low to mid 50s north and the upper 50s and lower 60s south. The previously mentioned upper low will open up and begin to lift northeastward through the great lakes region by tomorrow afternoon forcing the main trough axis east of the area tomorrow evening and into tomorrow night. While the surface front will lag the upper trough axis by about 12 hours, any precip would more likely accompany the upper trough axis.
High pressure will remain in control keeping things dry and warmer than average for this time of year. Enjoy the warmer temps while you can as changes are expected in the extended.
Issued by National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 302 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Key Messages: 1) A cold front will bring a brief round of light showers to the region through tonight, but this will not bring noteworthy impacts. In addition, northwest winds behind the front along with increased cloud cover will lead to a cooler day, with highs mostly in the mid to upper 60s.
351 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 An upper level low continues to progress eastward into Minnesota with some wrap winds bringing windy conditions to region. Cooler air continues to filter into the region behind the upper level low. An upper level ridge is forecast to build over Western CONUS by the middle of the week moving into Great Basin by the end of the week. The Northern Plains is going to remain in weak northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge. Increased heights will bring in warmer temperatures to region.
Expectation is for these to quickly diminish this afternoon as the stronger ridge of high pressure continues to build into our region.
150 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Northwest flow will remain in place today through Thursday as a ridge of high pressure remains planted across the western CONUS and even amplifies a bit. Due to the low relative humidities in the mid teens across the south, localized near critical fire weather conditions are possible across southwest Colorado this afternoon when combined with the breezy afternoon winds. The warming trend will continue with highs a few degrees warmer on Thursday due to the building ridge slowly shifting eastward.
1153 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 High pressure remains over the area through Thursday.
207 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will be drifting east across the commonwealth today and bring with it, gradually improving weather conditions are expected through Thursday.
Temperatures have warmed up to near 80 degrees with dew points holding comfortably in the lower to mid 60s.
122 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Most recent water vapor and upper air analysis shows the upper low sitting over southern Minnesota, while upper ridging builds over the western CONUS. Winds will gradually taper off this afternoon as the wave moves out of the area, and we can expect the upper ridge to allow for a warming trend towards the weekend.
128 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Moderating temperatures expected into Thursday as high pressure moves over and east of the region.
Detailed Discussion A cold front is slowly moving across the region this afternoon. The upper level trough associated with this cold front continues to move towards the east. Northwest flow and lower level ridging work to decrease clouds tomorrow. A jet streak advancing across the SW quadrant of the low combined with diurnal heating look to keep gusty winds around through the day Thursday. Steady northwesterly upper level flow combined with upper level ridging keeps skies relatively dry and clear for the next few days. This higher flow of cool Canadian air counter balances the uninhibited solar heating keeping temperatures fairly seasonal.
954 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Midevening GOES water vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively-tilted upper low centered over IA. PWB A few light showers, moving along and ahead of a surface cold front, will enter the region this evening and continue through tomorrow evening.
645 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) High pressure is centered over SE Louisiana with the ridge axis trailing across the western Gulf of Mexico to around Tampico. The return flow has been warming South Texas today with the temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. In North Texas, Low pressure is moving south east into East Texas, with a cold front that stretches into the Big Bend Region.
700 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure (1023 millibars) centered over the southeastern U. Meanwhile, a cold front was pushing east-southeastward through the Upper Midwest. troughing was progressing off the U. High pressure will migrate eastward towards the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic coast overnight, resulting in a weak coastal trough development over our near shore Atlantic waters. This trough may generate a few showers over our coastal waters, with marine stratocumulus expanding from south to north along the I-95 corridor after midnight as warm air advection takes shape downstream of the trough aloft that will be digging southeastward through the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valley.
1024 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Low pressure will approach from the west overnight and track across the Upper Great Lakes Thursday, bringing a chance for rain.
616 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 A few light showers, moving along and ahead of a surface cold front, will enter the region this evening and continue through tomorrow evening.
Cooler weather and a chance for precipitation will return for the weekend. The warm-up will continue through Thursday across the area as an upper ridge continues to nose NE across the area from the E Pacific.
759 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Low pressure will approach from the west overnight and track across the Upper Great Lakes Thursday, bringing a chance for rain.
943 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 High pressure will persist through Thursday.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 70s for most island locations with only the most protected locations possibly dipping lower. A ridge extending down the Atlantic coast and into the gulf will maintain moderate northeasterly breezes across Keys waters.
659 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 High pressure anchored just off the East coast will promote fair. warmer weather for Thursday.
The clouds, along with a light SE flow at the surface, will lead to warmer overnight lows compared to earlier this morning, with most locations only dropping into the u40s-l50s.
724 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Strong ridge exists over the western CONUS leaving us under anticyclonic NW flow and above normal heights. Tonight will be mild w/ lows from the 40s in valleys to low-mid 50s over the ridges. Otherwise, high pressure will continue to shift a bit east into the high plains with gradually clearing of any high clouds overnight. Lows will be in the lower 40s east to near 50 west. NW flow remains over the area as high pressure ridging controls the inter-Rockies.
Key Messages: - Showers exit this evening - Drier with above normal temperatures Thursday An upper level low will continue to exit to the southeast through early this evening. The waa and good mixing will see temps climb into the 60s and 70s about 15 degrees warmer than climo norms.
High pressure will migrate eastward towards the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic coast overnight, resulting in a weak coastal trough development over our near shore Atlantic waters. This trough may generate a few showers over our coastal waters, with marine stratocumulus expanding from south to north along the I-95 corridor after midnight as warm air advection takes shape downstream of the trough aloft that will be digging southeastward through the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valley.
831 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 High pressure with fair and slightly cool conditions today, with some slight moderation in temperatures Thursday.
616 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) Other than some high clouds across the Lower Valley and some low clouds across the Lower Texas beaches, sunny skies are in store for the rest of this afternoon. Overnight low temps are forecast to stay in the lower to mid 60s. A cold front is forecast to push across Central Texas on Thursday and will stall over South Central Texas. Therefore, southerly flow will stay in control over the Deep South with high temps in the lower 90s across most places under partly to mostly cloudy skies (mainly high clouds). Clearing is forecast on Thursday night with overnight low temps in the lower to mid 60s.
453 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Most recent water vapor and upper air analysis shows the upper low sitting over southern Minnesota, while upper ridging builds over the western CONUS. Winds will gradually taper off this afternoon as the wave moves out of the area, and we can expect the upper ridge to allow for a warming trend towards the weekend.
(The rest of tonight) A cold front near the I-44 corridor this evening will sweep through the area overnight. (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Post-frontal NW flow will quickly fill in behind the front tomorrow as the region becomes sandwiched between an amplified eastern CONUS trough and western ridge.
A cold front will push into the far northwest part of the area around daybreak.
An upper level low continues to progress eastward into Minnesota with some wrap winds bringing windy conditions to region. Cooler air continues to filter into the region behind the upper level low. An upper level ridge is forecast to build over Western CONUS by the middle of the week moving into Great Basin by the end of the week. The Northern Plains is going to remain in weak northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge. Increased heights will bring in warmer temperatures to region.
Basically left the low temp forecast alone due to uncertainty. Key Messages: - Showers exit this evening - Drier with above normal temperatures Thursday An upper level low will continue to exit to the southeast through early this evening. The waa and good mixing will see temps climb into the 60s and 70s about 15 degrees warmer than climo norms.
621 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 (Tonight) Tranquil weather will continue this evening across the Tennessee Valley as high pressure gradually shifts east of the area. Cloud cover will gradually increase across the region overnight ahead of a rapidly moving upper trough (and its associated cold front) that will be pivoting into the lower Ohio Valley/Mid-South.
539 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 High pressure will persist through Thursday.
643 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Key Messages: 1) A cold front will bring a brief round of light showers to the region through tonight, but this will not bring noteworthy impacts. In addition, northwest winds behind the front along with increased cloud cover will lead to a cooler day, with highs mostly in the mid to upper 60s.
632 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Aviation -Showers Tonight through Thursday Night The upper level low as seen on water vapor is currently centered over southern MN, this feature will continue to shift east bringing showers to the area late tonight through Thursday. The initial round will be more of a scattered line of showers and once that passes Thursday morning there could be a lull in activity before we see scattered showers redevelop due to more of a diurnal influence and the upper level low remaining over the area.
729 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 High pressure will move offshore Thursday with winds shifting southerly.
1000 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 High pressure anchored just off the East coast will promote fair. warmer weather for Thursday.
This activity is a little slower than anticipated and with our dry airmass in place have delayed the low pops in our northwest until closer to sunrise. These changes will be driven by a solid weather system (well established cyclone per vapor imagery over the N Plains) that will continue to drop southward through the MS River Valley on Thursday. This closed low feature will eventually do some phasing and evolve into a long wave trough across the E CONUS. Temperatures will be warmer than the prev days with more 50s tonight. Clouds will slow the warmup initially tomorrow, but more of a mix of sunshine for the afternoon will allow for warmer readings with upper 70s to lower 80s.
601 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 (This evening through Thursday) Northwesterly surface winds behind a weak cold front will keep overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s across the area.
618 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Northwest flow will remain in place today through Thursday as a ridge of high pressure remains planted across the western CONUS and even amplifies a bit. Due to the low relative humidities in the mid teens across the south, localized near critical fire weather conditions are possible across southwest Colorado this afternoon when combined with the breezy afternoon winds. The warming trend will continue with highs a few degrees warmer on Thursday due to the building ridge slowly shifting eastward.
715 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 High pressure will linger through Thursday.
1033 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 High pressure will linger through Thursday.
622 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 (Through tonight ) Today's cold front will progress through the forecast area overnight tonight, fully exiting to the southeast by tomorrow morning. Low temps may be a touch cooler tonight with some minor cold air advection occurring behind the front, but overall expect 40s and lower 50s. (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Post-frontal NW flow will quickly fill in behind the front tomorrow as the region becomes sandwiched between an amplified eastern CONUS trough and western ridge.
735 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Moderating temperatures expected into Thursday as high pressure moves over and east of the region.
Key Message: 1) Cold front passing through will bring a chance for light precipitation through tomorrow, with breezy conditions. This will pass well north of the area, dragging a weak cold front through the region. Today and through the evening, we will see gusty southerly winds ahead of the cold front. Tomorrow, temperatures will be slightly cooler, with breezy northwest winds once again. Might need a light jacket, as damp conditions and a northwest breeze may make it feel a little cooler out there.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Evening/ This afternoon's satellite imagery reveals an upper low dropping southeast through the Northern Plains on its way to the Midwest. This system will nudge a weak cold front southward through North and Central Texas tonight and Thursday. The cold front will enter the northwest zones late this evening, cross the I-35 corridor around sunrise, then clear the southeast- most zones around midday Thursday. Unfortunately, a strengthening ridge aloft will offset the cool air advection, keeping conditions quite warm behind the front. Highs should be able to reach the lower and middle 80s area-wide.
The building ridge overhead that is responsible for our calm, stable weather will linger in the area through the end of the work week. As the low level air mass continues to dry out today, less widespread fog is expected overnight, especially in the lower Rogue Valley. This, in addition to the extent of the ridge reaching its maximum, will lead to the warmest temperatures of the stretch tomorrow.
746 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023 High pressure will persist through Thursday.
1216 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) High pressure is centered over SE Louisiana with the ridge axis trailing across the western Gulf of Mexico to around Tampico. The return flow has been warming South Texas today with the temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. In North Texas, Low pressure is moving south east into East Texas, with a cold front that stretches into the Big Bend Region.
1247 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) Other than some high clouds across the Lower Valley and some low clouds across the Lower Texas beaches, sunny skies are in store for the rest of this afternoon. Overnight low temps are forecast to stay in the lower to mid 60s. A cold front is forecast to push across Central Texas on Thursday and will stall over South Central Texas. Therefore, southerly flow will stay in control over the Deep South with high temps in the lower 90s across most places under partly to mostly cloudy skies (mainly high clouds). Clearing is forecast on Thursday night with overnight low temps in the lower to mid 60s.
(Thursday through Friday) Light showers are currently moving to our north, as a weak cold front continues to push east. As the upper-level trough continues that eastern path, that will allow for the fringes of upper-level ridging to weasel its way into our area. In turn, look for temperatures to climb over the course of the short-term, as surface winds turn south with the ridge.
241 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 High pressure shifts east today with mild temperatures expected on southerly winds. A cold front tracks in Friday through Friday night with showers. It will be breezy and turning cooler behind the front over the weekend. Highs will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s west of the Blue Ridge, to upper 60s to around 70 east. Tonight, 5h trough deepens across the Ohio/TN valleys, with stronger southwest flow, which will likely result in lowering clouds quicker.
1248 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather today, along with warmer temperatures.
226 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 High pressure will persist through Thursday. A cold front will arrive and promote showers and possible thunder on Friday afternoon and evening.
A small increase in 1000-500 mb thicknesses as 700-500 mb heights increase with the slow eastward movement of a western CONUS ridge will generally result in high temperatures 3-6 degrees warmer than yesterday's highs. The exception will be across the southern tier and southeastern corner of the forecast area where high temperatures were able to become quite warm ahead of yesterday's cold front. Across these areas highs will run at or a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
Cloudy and cool today with high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s. A closed low continues to slowly dig southeastward across the Upper Midwest early this morning. Clouds are forecast to linger through the day across the area as trough remains in place across the area.
Friday will be mostly cloudy and a few degrees cooler than today. An upper trough could bring showers to northcentral Wisconsin in the late afternoon.
1105 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Northwest flow will remain in place today through Thursday as a ridge of high pressure remains planted across the western CONUS and even amplifies a bit. Due to the low relative humidities in the mid teens across the south, localized near critical fire weather conditions are possible across southwest Colorado this afternoon when combined with the breezy afternoon winds. The warming trend will continue with highs a few degrees warmer on Thursday due to the building ridge slowly shifting eastward. On Friday, the amplified ridge over the western CONUS begins to translate eastward and eventually becomes centered over our region. Over the course of the weekend, a strong trough moves into the Pacific Northwest.
Afternoon highs will be comfortably in the low to mid 70s across most of the CWA; with 60s in the mountains of NE Georgia. Some elevated gusts of 25+ mph are possible on Friday afternoon and going into Friday evening; with locally higher gusts possible especially across the higher elevations.
411 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Periods of rain showers can be expected through this evening as cold front approaches the area from the west.
(Today through Friday) An overall dry day is expected as a cold front begins to approach the area. A pre-frontal trough is out ahead of the front and stretches from Michigan to Arkansas. High pressure is centered over the Mid- Atlantic. The pre-frontal trough will make it into the northeast by the afternoon, but will lose moisture as it moves through the area and encounters the western edge of the high pressure. So any rain with the trough will be limited to the north and northwest through the afternoon. The cold front itself will move into the northwest near sunset and then move through overnight.
The upper trough will shift east across our area tonight into Friday, and the surface cold front will push through during the day Friday. Low level flow will increase from the southwest out ahead of the approaching trough and cold front, and we will see a band of isentropic lift that will move across the area this afternoon which will bring increased clouds and may squeeze out a few sprinkles or light showers. The precipitation will be diminishing from west to east during Friday behind the cold front, and clouds will begin to clear across at least western/southern portions of the area later in the afternoon.