Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Widespread showers with a few rumbles of thunder continue across the lower Ohio Valley, but no impacts to Indiana are expected through the day today outside of a stray shower across the far southern counties this afternoon. The synoptic situation features significant ridging to our southwest and near normal midlevel heights across our area in northwesterly flow. Later in the night, as the aforementioned trough approaches and large scale ascent increased, the capping subsident layer will be lifted some. This will be most likely with a quicker and less amplified midlevel trough. This would be most likely with a lagging and more amplified midlevel trough.
636 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 (Today) Showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped along a convergence boundary across the lower OH River Valley, and have slowly begun to shift south over northern TN.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be gusty northwest winds behind a cold FROPA, cooler temperatures, and chances for showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Currently, stacked low pressure over far southeastern Saskatchewan propagating southeast into the Northern Plains early this morning. Much cooler as well with daytime highs in the 70s. With the upper level low well to the east of North Dakota by Thursday night, northwesterly flow will begin to dominate as a fairly robust upper level ridge across much of the western CONUS begins to amplify and slowly move east.
405 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 WY remains pressed between the ridge across the southwestern US and the trough sweeping across Saskatchewan into Manitoba today. Activity will build tonight into Thursday as a larger buckle in the ridge flows through the same area. Showers will be more numerous across the state THursday, focused still on southern WY, but will help enhance the peak heating thunderstorms that will fire along the higher elevations before moving east.
Southern Oregon and northern California will remain juxtaposed between the ridge in the four-corners part of the US and a trough that will approach the Alaska Panhandle by the late work-week. This means that the weak thermal trough will only be able to build as far as the Rogue-Umpqua divide today and Thursday. This thermal trough will push further inland and areas east of the Cascades will join in on the heat as well.
552 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Dewpoints across the region have responded to the increase in moisture wrapping around the high pressure center parked over the Desert Southwest this morning. Cloudy skies and dewpoints near 50 degrees across the region have kept overnight lows warmer than average. Shower activity will diminish some on Thursday as the high pressure center builds back to the west and the ridge begins to amplify northward, closing off access to the moisture tap.
417 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Current surface map places low across southeast Saskatchewan with weak cold front through the central Dakotas. Heading into the weekend, upper high becomes established over the Four Corners region with ridging extending through the northern Rockies/Plains. However, with greenness/moist surface soil across much of the forecast area, will trend forecast highs towards the lower/mid range of ensemble spread.
626 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 (Today through Thursday) The upper ridge continues to be in place across the southern CONUS during the short-term of the period.
The synoptic situation features significant ridging to our southwest and near normal midlevel heights across our area in northwesterly flow. Later in the night, as the aforementioned trough approaches and large scale ascent increased, the capping subsident layer will be lifted some. This will be most likely with a quicker and less amplified midlevel trough. This would be most likely with a lagging and more amplified midlevel trough.
534 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 A cold front will cross the area today, then exit across the Gulf of Maine tonight. High pressure will cross the region Thursday.
1129 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Beautiful weather today as high pressure will be overhead, providing a break in the precipitation and the smoke.
The ridge has stretched out across the region, but it's not making any difference in our forecast. Having to manually pull in some of the higher dewpoints behind the seabreeze to get appropriate values.
An approaching cold front will trigger scattered thunderstorms late tonight into Thursday. followed by a return to cooler and drier conditions for the end of the week. The forecast remains on track, with precipitation chances arriving mainly after around 10z as the cold front approaches central Illinois. The next weather-maker will be a cold front currently across the western Dakotas. Further north, the Dakotas cold front may help spark widely scattered storms across the KILX CWA after midnight. Barnes Cold front will advance eastward across central Illinois on Thursday. With dewpoints pooling in the lower and perhaps middle 70s ahead of the front, NAM suggests SBCAPEs may exceed 3000J/kg.
(This evening through Thursday Night) The relentless grip of a very strong UL high pressure system continues to keep southeast Texas sizzling. The aforementioned ridge will nudge slightly westward tomorrow afternoon.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - No changes in the Heat (Record Heat) - Elevated Wildfire Spread Concerns early afternoon and Thursday Afternoon Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains As the sub-tropical ridge remains unchanged and extended across Texas little to no change is in the offering for the short-term.
1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas today as an upper level ridge continues to dominate our weather.
Highs will be in the low 90s with heat index values in the low 100s. Temperatures are currently in the upper 80s and may heat into the low 90s in the next few hours. Heat index values should remain below advisory criteria but will likely be in the lower 100s along and south of I- 70.
1127 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Current surface map places low across southeast Saskatchewan with weak cold front through the central Dakotas. Heading into the weekend, upper high becomes established over the Four Corners region with ridging extending through the northern Rockies/Plains. However, with greenness/moist surface soil across much of the forecast area, will trend forecast highs towards the lower/mid range of ensemble spread.
1203 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 (Today through Thursday) The upper ridge continues to be in place across the southern CONUS during the short-term of the period.
An upper lower centered over south central Canada will continue to slide southeast toward the Great Lakes through the next 48hrs, pushing its associated cold front further south and east away from the forecast area.
A cold front remains draped from northwest NE through eastern SD, and stronger storms have fired across portions of SD within the last couple of hours. Otherwise, the cold front will make slow progress through the forecast area from north to south of overnight, gradually pushing rain chances out of the area by about 1 am and beyond. Thursday looks like a beautiful day with a lot of sunshine with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
Although it will continue to be hot across the area on Thursday, we do expect to see slightly cooler temperatures.
Mean-layer ridging stretches from the southern Plains to the western North Atlantic north of the Lesser Antilles. The highest temp we have seen is the 94 on Big Pine, which is a welcome relief.
Morning showers and embedded thunderstorms spurred along by an area of WAA have been steadily pushing east out of the area early this afternoon, leaving behind an area of clearing across northern Minnesota in the warm sector of our approaching low pressure. Across the occluded front of the low pressure in far southern Manitoba, convection has already initiated and grown southeastward towards the International Border. Through this afternoon, expecting an area of storms along and in front of the cold front to fire, with initial discrete cells then tracking eastward.
(This evening through Thursday Night) An upper-level ridge currently centered over Eastern New Mexico/West Texas extends from the Northern Baja Peninsula eastward into Mississippi. Strong subsidence from the ridge is keeping skies mostly clear and our rain chances near zero. The upper-level ridge should begin to retrograde westward during the day Thursday and should be re-centered over the Arizona/New Mexico border by the afternoon.
Another small chance (10% chance) for isolated afternoon thunderstorms will occur tomorrow with the exiting moisture to our east over the higher terrain of central Idaho. Otherwise, a wildfire just north of Ola, ID is producing patchy smoke in the Lower Treasure Valley this morning. Diurnal winds will continue as the upper level ridge builds into the region through this week.
(This afternoon through Thursday) Strong mid-level ridging extending from the south-central US will continue to build over the Florida peninsula through the short term period. Despite the drier air and mid-level ridging strengthening over Florida, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again during the afternoon along the sea breeze boundaries. Temperatures and heat indices will remain elevated today and Thursday as high temperatures reach the low 90s and heat indices approach the 105-108 degree range across South FL.
1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Secondary cold front continues to move south through North Dakota, with shallow cumulus across northern North Dakota behind the front. Forecast highlights in the short term period will be gusty northwest winds behind a cold FROPA, cooler temperatures, and chances for showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Currently, stacked low pressure over far southeastern Saskatchewan propagating southeast into the Northern Plains early this morning. Much cooler as well with daytime highs in the 70s. With the upper level low well to the east of North Dakota by Thursday night, northwesterly flow will begin to dominate as a fairly robust upper level ridge across much of the western CONUS begins to amplify and slowly move east.
1113 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 WY remains pressed between the ridge across the southwestern US and the trough sweeping across Saskatchewan into Manitoba today. Activity will build tonight into Thursday as a larger buckle in the ridge flows through the same area. Showers will be more numerous across the state THursday, focused still on southern WY, but will help enhance the peak heating thunderstorms that will fire along the higher elevations before moving east.
A cold front currently moving across the Red River of the North will move across Lake MI Thursday morning. Storm generation lift will be aided by a decent short wave rounding the base of the upper trough.
With the lack of convection, temperatures should be able to rise into the mid 90s across a good portion of the area as a ridge builds eastward across the north central Gulf Coast region again today. Another warm/muggy night is expected with more heat on the way tomorrow as upper ridging continues to build.
458 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 After mostly dry conditions today, another round of showers and thunderstorms arrives Thursday as a low pressure system and cold front move through the area.
341 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 After mostly dry conditions today, another round of showers and thunderstorms arrives Thursday as a low pressure system and cold front move through the area.
Into Thursday, we can expect flow aloft to begin veering to the northwest as the upper level ridge begins to transit to the west.
Tonight, a cold front will approach from the northwest and move southeast into our CWA.
High pressure to the north briefly takes hold tomorrow.
The forecast calls for 70% chances through the afternoon, with highs in the lower 90s.
(Tonight through Thursday night) There will be little to no change in the synoptic pattern through the short term as 500mb ridging remains firmly in place across the region.
Mostly clear skies will remain for the region as the area sits under the presence of an upper level ridge near the four corners region. Heat will remain the main threat this week as this ridge continues to build over the region. Cluster analysis continues to show an especially anomalous ridge sitting over the entire southwest CONUS.
156 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 High pressure is currently centered over New Mexico and as a result temperatures will again be above normal similar to yesterday. Clockwise flow around the high has pushed modest moisture into the area. Relatively drier air in the lower elevations, mainly due to the warm air mass, will favor efficient cold pools, which may help convection move off the high terrain in spots. Gusty outflows winds are more likely than heavy rain, but the higher terrain could see brief down pours. This is the consensus among the high-res models.
A cold front will move south of the region late in the week, bringing some drier air this weekend. Water vapor satellite showed broad troughing across the eastern U.
A strong H5 ridge continues to spread eastward over the region, which will continue to produce strong UL subsidence limiting POPs.
102 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over northeast ND with somewhat flat ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, low is near the northeast ND/northwest MN line with cold front extending southwest through south central SD. Breezy northwest winds behind the cold front. A few thunderstorms continue to fire near the cold front across south central SD early this afternoon. A few storms will continue across south central SD this afternoon before shifting east of the area this evening as cold front progresses eastward. Any stronger storms should be over south central SD in closer proximity to the cold front where shear is greater. Coolish temps expected with highs in the 70s to lower 80s with broad high pressure over much of the Dakotas in wake of todays cold front.
313 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 High pressure will bring a mostly dry and less humid air mass to the region tonight into Thursday.
233 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 High pressure will bring pleasant conditions for tonight and most of tomorrow.
1102 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Dewpoints across the region have responded to the increase in moisture wrapping around the high pressure center parked over the Desert Southwest this morning. Cloudy skies and dewpoints near 50 degrees across the region have kept overnight lows warmer than average. Shower activity will diminish some on Thursday as the high pressure center builds back to the west and the ridge begins to amplify northward, closing off access to the moisture tap.
Issued by National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 The synoptic setup features two areas of high pressure aloft- one to our west and one to our east, with troughing north of the region over the eastern part of the country. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis extends across the south-central peninsula, with a southeast low-level flow in place across the local area.
1129 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 A trend toward a cooler, more unsettled weather pattern will begin to unfold today as a backdoor cold front advances to the south and west across the high plains through the day. Given the much cooler, extremely moist boundary layer, would anticipate very heavy rain & possible flash flooding as the primary hazard instead of large hail and/or damaging winds.
Should be an easy evening for the area as we see overnight temperatures drop into the low to mid 70s.
Temperatures remain warmer than normal for this time of year with high temperatures pushing towards 100 in the valleys later this afternoon. Southern Oregon and northern California will remain juxtaposed between the ridge in the four-corners part of the US and a trough that will approach the Alaska Panhandle by the late work-week. This means that the weak thermal trough will only be able to build as far as the Rogue-Umpqua divide today and Thursday. This thermal trough will push further inland and areas east of the Cascades will join in on the heat as well.
High pressure will continue to strengthen over the Northern Rockies through the weekend.
Forecast soundings show capping in place in the lowest 3 km, in what would otherwise be a favorable environment for thunderstorms. Based on isolated thunderstorm coverage in the morning, the severe weather risk is notable for the afternoon ahead of a cold front so long as the cap breaks. The severe weather risk would end soon after 8pm EDT when the cold front has exited northwest Ohio. SRH and hodographs are generally meager, but the warm front hung up just south of the Michigan border could provide localized helicity for a tornado to develop. The persistent ridge just east of the Four Corners results in continued northwest flow overhead.
102 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 (Today through Thursday) The ridge that has plagued the area will continue to stretch across Texas. While this will not result in much change, it looks like temperatures could be a degree or two cooler across much of the area today and Thursday.
This boundary will again have influence on overnight lows, as areas that remain south will keep a light SSW component and remain in the upper 70s to near 80, and relatively cooler temps near and north as winds remain light. Overall max temps should be slightly cooler but still appears likely that a corridor of heat indices of 105-110 will develop over part of southeast OK into west central AR Thursday afternoon. At this time, cloud cover is expected to keep temperatures north of that region in the lower 90s, but dew points north of the boundary are quite high and may push heat indices close to advisory levels as well. As the upper ridge retreats back to the west Thursday.
657 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows stout ridging oriented from the SW US east across TX and into the northern Gulf coast states, with associated dry air and subsidence noted across TX and LA. At the surface, high pressure continues to extend across FL into the Gulf of Mexico. S to SW flow around the western periphery of the high was transporting enough low level moisture to allow for some scattered shallow CU development across the area today.
314 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 West to northwest flow aloft has set in across Wyoming as high pressure across the desert southwest tries to expand northward. Otherwise, Thursday will be cooler for most, with temperatures generally peaking in the 70s and 80s.
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 700 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 (Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - No changes in the Heat (Record Heat) - Elevated Wildfire Spread Concerns early afternoon and Thursday Afternoon Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains As the sub-tropical ridge remains unchanged and extended across Texas little to no change is in the offering for the short-term.
615 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 (This evening through Thursday Night) The relentless grip of a very strong UL high pressure system continues to keep southeast Texas sizzling. The aforementioned ridge will nudge slightly westward tomorrow afternoon.
748 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 After mostly dry conditions today, another round of showers and thunderstorms arrives Thursday as a low pressure system and cold front move through the area.
High pressure strengthens over Nevada for the remainder of the week, bringing a return to hot summertime temperatures. Thursday, ridge rebuilds once short moves downstream to the central Rockies.
1023 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2023 HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY PRODUCED HEAT INDEX BETWEEN 101-105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
A weak area of high pressure also remains in place over much of the central Gulf states. Otherwise, current temps mainly in the mid 70s may only drop a couple of more degrees into early Thu, given dew pts more in the lower 70s.
A cold front will move south of the region late in the week, bringing some drier air this weekend. Lows in the low-mid 70s except for some upper 60s far N remain reasonable.
79 Previous Discussion: /Through Thursday/ The anomalous 598-599 dam mid-level ridge will continue to dominate the synoptic pattern over the short-term period allowing for dry conditions and dangerous heat to persist through Thursday. The strong upper level high will shift slightly to the west by the end of the week and weekend, placing North and Central Texas beneath northwesterly flow.
951 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 A quiet night is in store as upper ridging looms over the region.
Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer with highs surpassing 100F in the lower valleys.
403 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Water vapor shows upper low over northeast ND with somewhat flat ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, low is near the northeast ND/northwest MN line with cold front extending southwest through south central SD. Breezy northwest winds behind the cold front. A few thunderstorms continue to fire near the cold front across south central SD early this afternoon. A few storms will continue across south central SD this afternoon before shifting east of the area this evening as cold front progresses eastward. Any stronger storms should be over south central SD in closer proximity to the cold front where shear is greater. Coolish temps expected with highs in the 70s to lower 80s with broad high pressure over much of the Dakotas in wake of todays cold front.
The high pressure ridge axis lifted across the area today, and will keep a light E/SE flow in place for tomorrow, with the afternoon sea breeze taking over the flow. High pressure will ridge across the area and keep a light E/SE flow in place with afternoon sea breezes dominating the flow for the next couple of days. The ridge axis then shifts to the south again over the weekend, with local winds returning to the W/SW.
532 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 (This evening through Thursday Night) An upper-level ridge currently centered over Eastern New Mexico/West Texas extends from the Northern Baja Peninsula eastward into Mississippi. Strong subsidence from the ridge is keeping skies mostly clear and our rain chances near zero. The upper-level ridge should begin to retrograde westward during the day Thursday and should be re-centered over the Arizona/New Mexico border by the afternoon.
Temperatures will be cooler again Thursday with extensive cloud cover. MU CAPE values range from 500 J/KG in the southwest at mid afternoon to 1000 northeast where there has been some filtered sun and warmer temperatures. A weak front over the Ohio Valley will lift north overnight tonight and high pressure over the Gulf will build north and strengthen some tonight into Thursday morning.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a very weak area of high pressure over WI and Lower MI. A weak area of low pressure was situated over northwest WI with a cold front that extended southwest from the low pressure through the northern Plains. Other showers and thunderstorms were developing over the Upper MS Valley ahead of the advancing cold front. As high pressure begins to build toward the western Great Lakes region in the afternoon, clouds should begin to depart with some sunshine breaking out. Cooler/drier air mass behind the cold front will cap max temperatures to around 70 degrees north, middle to upper 70s south.
533 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023 High pressure is currently centered over New Mexico and as a result temperatures will again be above normal similar to yesterday. Clockwise flow around the high has pushed modest moisture into the area. Relatively drier air in the lower elevations, mainly due to the warm air mass, will favor efficient cold pools, which may help convection move off the high terrain in spots. Gusty outflows winds are more likely than heavy rain, but the higher terrain could see brief down pours. This is the consensus among the high-res models.