Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
CMiller (Issued 301 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023) Tonight through Saturday night: High pressure building in allows for quiet conditions to continue through tonight. Areas further south are likely to remain dry with high pressure dominating the area and dry air in the lower 5000ft. High temperatures will be in the low 80's with low temperatures around 60 Saturday night.
Northern Michigan remains in persistent northwest flow between strong ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the east. At the surface, broad but weak high pressure was over much of the Great Lakes and upper Mississippi Valley, but not strong enough to inhibit precipitation where moisture pooling is occurring, as was noted in various places across the midwest. Another trough sets up across east central Canada.
Forecast thoughts: The upper air pattern has been slow to change over the past week and still features a deeply stacked low over the Hudson Bay region with an elongated trough axis working through the New England states. A semi-permanent anticyclone is set up over the southwestern CONUS with a ridge building into the Intermountain West region. Near the local area, an MCV is tracking into the lower Mid MS Valley with a surface area of high pressure working into the central Plains. As the upper air pattern begins to change and transition to a more amplified ridge over the western CONUS, the northwest flow over the region will be slow to push east. Into Sunday, the ridge over the west continues to build.
There is some uncertainty with the timing of the storms but the highest chances should be after around 19-20Z. Ridging aloft led to another hot day, with widespread heat index values of 110 or higher reported across the forecast area.
412 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 A slowly departing upper level low will support a mix of sun and clouds along with widely scattered and lighter rain showers today. Temperatures will begin trending warmer on Sunday, with above normal temperatures favored by midweek.
(Sunday Night through next Saturday) The dry forecast continues into the start of the work week with the high over the desert southwest and the Bermuda high strengthening.
(Today through Sunday Night ) H500 ridging will be suppressed southwestward across the Four Corners during the period as longwave troughing intensifies across the eastern US. At the sfc, a cold front has shifted south of the state and ridging is expected to build in its wake.
(Today through Sunday night) With a stout upper-level ridge over the Desert Southwest, the Panhandles will be under some modest northwesterly flow aloft today.
The powerful H5 ridge that has been situated over our area through the week will finally begin to shift westward back across the Southern Plains. An upper level weakness/trough will develop across the eastern U.
359 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Today through tonight: A cold front pushing south across the area will bring a marginal risk for severe weather, and it will help suppress the significant heat stress conditions to along/south of the Highway 84 corridor where a heat advisory will continue for today. The convective rainfall will continue for the next several hours before diminishing later this morning as the minor trough exits. Storms should diminish early this evening with cooler and less humid air conditions expected overnight.
218 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure builds in today, bringing mostly dry weather.
359 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Today through tonight: A cold front pushing south across the area will bring a threat for severe weather, and it will help suppress the significant heat stress conditions to along/south of the Highway 84 corridor. Storms should diminish early this evening with cooler and less humid air conditions expected overnight.
259 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 With high pressure in place and northwest flow, the weekend is shaping up to be warm and dry.
1224 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (The rest of tonight) Cooler and drier air will continue to filter into the region tonight as deep layer ridging settles behind the passage of a cold front earlier today. Otherwise, and unseasonably cool night is in store, with lows dipping down into the low to mid 60s. Some of the typically cooler locations could briefly dip into the upper 50s for a time.
205 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Overall its a quite night with northwest flow aloft and high pressure over the SW CONUS. Sunday will be similar though a touch warmer.
(Today through Sunday) The Subtropical Ridge is shifting to near the Four Corners region early this morning and will linger there today through Sunday.
Ridging over the region will begin to see a breakdown as a trough makes its way across the central US starting overnight tonight. 11/Calhoun (Tonight through Sunday night) Wx map shows weak high pressure ridging across the Northern Gulf of Mexico keeping weak south to southwest winds across the area along and south of I-10, light and variable winds further north. The mid to upper level pattern will continue to be dominated by a large mid to upper ridge across the Western U. with a large longwave trough axis over the Central and Eastern U.
A cold front is currently moving into Central Texas and will continue its slow trek south today. The cold front will generally lower this afternoon's highs 5-10 degrees below yesterday's values. As the East Coast trough deamplifies, the ridge across the Four Corners region will gradually extend eastward into the Southern Plains, increasing subsidence across North and Central Texas. The clockwise circulation around the high will effectively keep the region free of precipitation as systems are deflected from the Central Plains toward the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
154 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023 07z surface analysis had weak trough from northern MN to northeast CO and weak ridge over the CWA. Lee trough in place from central MT to southeast WY. Temperatures will be about 5F warmer than yesterday, which is down a tad from previous forecast given greenness values. Sunday, upper/thermal ridge firmly in place with strong cap.
Fortunately, Saturday looks to offer a reprieve from Advisory conditions areawide, as highs top out in the lower to middle 90s for most, with 100s confined to the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. The upper ridge that has dominated our weather this month will shift briefly west allowing for northwest flow to develop aloft Saturday.
Upper troughing swings through Michigan today while at the surface a lake breeze will provide mesoscale support to help pop scattered showers and thunderstorms along and east of US 131 this afternoon and evening. Another upper trough axis arrives between 12z-18z Sunday, with SBCAPE values similar to Saturday.
Lows will be in the lower 60s. Upper ridge will build in from the west beginning on Sunday with rising heights.
Otherwise, sunny and pleasant today, with lower humidity post cold front.
317 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 A weak front will stall near the eastern Carolinas this weekend, accompanied by scattered thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures. A weak cold front will attempt to push offshore this morning before stalling and shifting back toward the coast as the sea breeze develops this afternoon. Highs should reach near 90 most spots but with some slightly drier low-level air behind the cold front heat indices mainly shouldn't even reach 100 degrees.
The combination of these ingredients, daytime heating and sfc convergence due to an approaching weak cold front and sea breeze interaction will lead to isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day. In terms of temperatures, it will generally be a few degrees cooler than today.
Primary concern this morning are the low clouds of only a few hundred feet that are slightly limiting visibilities this morning, and although no flooding products are in affect at this time, folks need to be cautious of any lingering water and do not drive around barricades. A cold front is hung up across NE AL and with a disturbance moving through will allow for low end chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms to persist through this morning. Once the front is pushed southward, high pressure will build in and northerly winds will filter in drier air. Daytime highs will be a tad cooler in the low/mid 80s and with the lower dewpoints, heat index values will be negligible.
304 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Key Message - the warmer than normal period begins today and Sunday with periodic convective chances It is kind of an odd, disorganized radar picture early this morning. Summer nocturnal convection is usually driven by warm advection and the low level jet, and neither of these are present tonight. Similar issues will arise most days in the coming week with capping atop a well mixed boundary layer due to the warm temperatures aloft thanks to the ridge.
403 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Weak high pressure will persist through the weekend.
1118 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Showers and thunderstorms have dissipated across the Mid-South this evening, allowing for temperatures in the low to mid 70s to settle across the region. A change in weather patterns will occur on Saturday as high pressure builds behind a cold front.
Severe thunderstorms expected along the weak cold front will move across southeast TN late afternoon into early evening. Dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures in the low/mid 90s and lots of low level instability means some storms could be severe with damaging winds as the main threat.
409 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 A cold front will be south of the area and high pressure will build in from the west northwest today, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures with lower humidity. The high will slide off the coast during Sunday.
124 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure spreads west to east across the region tonight through Saturday night.
Temperatures will not be significantly cooler with most sitting in the upper 60s to low 70s. The higher elevations remain "cool" with low to mid 90s.
Mid-level troughiness will deepen over the Mississippi River Valley, nudging the Desert Southwest-centered 500 mb high pressure slightly west. Meanwhile, very weak inverted mid-level troughiness will prevail along the northeast coast of Mexico, while deeper tropical moisture (with precipitable water values very near two inches) advances towards the Lower Texas Coast.
Mean mid level trof in place over the eastern CONUS. Latest surface analysis shows high pressure over the area this morning. Forecast highs remain several degrees below normal - ranging from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Mostly clear skies and calm winds allow temperatures to drop into the lower 60s. Broad mid level trof remains over the eastern CONUS Sunday. Temperatures look to be a little closer to normal - topping out in the lower and middle 80s.
308 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 With high pressure in place and northwest flow, the weekend is shaping up to be warm and dry.
1214 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (This evening through Saturday) The upper level high is now centered over the western CONUS which has allowed for northwest flow aloft to dominate over the forecast area. This is leading to the slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon. This cloud cover, along with decreased layer thickness and northwest flow aloft will support cooler conditions across our area, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
A slight chance of a shower or storm today with cooler temperatures. For the rest of the day, a weak frontal boundary will sag south while the upper level flow remains largely northwesterly beneath troughing that encompasses most of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Tonight will be quiet as surface ridging sets in with a drier atmospheric column.
221 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Temperatures fall back into the normal range this weekend as a cold front sags into the Southeast providing support for increased cloud cover and rain chances. Saturday and Saturday Night: The region will remain positioned along the southern periphery of a deep upper level trough. Highs during the afternoon should be somewhat cooler, with most areas in the upper 80s to around 90. Sunday and Sunday Night: The stalled front may begin to lift a bit northward on Sunday, and with the passage of some short wave energy aloft around the base of the trough, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once again, mainly in the afternoon and evening.
Thus winds will persist from the northwest to north, so highs will remain a bit below normal in the low to mid 80s. With the cooler temperatures and less humidity, it will be quite pleasant for the middle of July. However, the latest LREF does indicate surface based CAPEs of 250-500 J/kg by this afternoon along and just ahead of a weak cold front. Byrd For the remainder of the forecast period, will be dealing with the upper level ridge over the western CONUS and timing of it's movement to the east. Mean 2M temperature spreads are much smaller with the CMC and EPS coming more in line with the warmer GEFS solution that I noted yesterday.
1005 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Showers and thunderstorms have dissipated across the Mid-South this evening, allowing for temperatures in the low to mid 70s to settle across the region. A change in weather patterns will occur on Saturday as high pressure builds behind a cold front.
435 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure builds in today, bringing mostly dry weather.
1043 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 (This evening through Saturday) North winds behind this mornings cold front passage will continue to bring unseasonably cooler air as well as slightly drier down from the Central Plains through Saturday.
(Today and tonight) Cold front has continued to sag south, reaching very close to I-10 early this morning. Slightly cooler temperatures expected this afternoon, ranging from the mid 90s across I-20 to around 100 farther south. Lows tonight may even drop into the 60s in a few locations north of I-20 tonight, but most areas will be in the low to mid 70s.
The ridge that has been the culprit for the relentless heat over the last week or so will shift westward while an upper level trough will develop to our east.
204 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure will offer cooler and drier weather tonight. Dewpoints will maintain a slow decrease from the lower 60s to upper 50s around 60 by daybreak. Weak high pressure moves overhead which will keep winds very light. High pressure stays overhead on Saturday night. Mostly clear skies and calm winds allow temperatures to drop into the lower 60s. Short wave will be amplifying as it drops into the base of the mean trough on Sunday.
By then sunshine will have pushed temperatures into the lower to mid 80s, which forecast soundings indicate is the convective temperature. The better instability looks to be north of I-80 where the higher chance pops (30-40 pct) are placed.
Otherwise, skies will gradually clear tonight allowing for minTs to fall into the lower 60s. An upper level trough across the Ohio Valley will allow for northwest flow to start the weekend with ample sunshine. Low humidity can be expected with maxTs progged in the low to mid 80s and minTs well in the 60s. MaxTs will be a few degrees warmer in the upper 80s with minTs in the mid to upper 60s. The week still start off dry as a 594 dm ridge builds across the SW CONUS causing the heat and humidity to return by the middle of the week.
111 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 The potential for severe weather has ended tonight and heat index values has dropped below critical thresholds and will only become cooler then remainder of the night. Surface analysis had a weak cold front just north of our CWa that will drift south through the night. Unidirectional shear profiles & mean bulk shear around 25kts in the low-mid levels combined with some favorable lapse rates/vertical totals & destabilization will aid in isolated severe convection, mainly into the aftn hours. Highs will be cooler north but compressional warming & continued warm thermo south of I-20 will these areas warm into the mid 90s.
(Today and tonight) The cold front has pushed through the entire FA and has allowed temps to drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s as of 1 AM CDT. Upper flow will become slightly more west-northwesterly today as the upper trough across the eastern CONUS amplifies.
As of 0120 AM, showers have largely diminished with only isolated coverage over the southern Adirondacks associated with an upper low over southern Quebec which will continue to lessen overnight. Some showers will linger across the area in association with the upper trough.
While mean upper troughing remains over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the upper low over southern Quebec will eject to the northeast through the day Saturday allowing for rising heights aloft locally. Under northwest flow in the low to mid levels, temperatures will run near to slightly below normal, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s in high terrain and upper 70s to low 80s at lower elevations.
1257 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Dry weather and generally seasonable temperatures are expected this weekend under high pressure, with only isolated afternoon showers expected.
Lows will be in the lower 60s. Upper ridge will build in from the west beginning on Sunday with rising heights. Upper ridge will be in control through about mid week with dry conditions and much above normal temperatures.
616 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (Today through Sunday Night ) H500 ridging will be suppressed southwestward across the Four Corners during the period as longwave troughing intensifies across the eastern US. At the sfc, a cold front has shifted south of the state and ridging is expected to build in its wake.
Mostly clear skies and calm winds allow temperatures to drop into the lower 60s. Broad mid level trof remains over the eastern CONUS Sunday. Temperatures look to be a little closer to normal - topping out in the lower and middle 80s.
Highs were increased for the higher elevations in the interior areas that still have failed to cool below the 80s overnight.
608 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 A weak front will stall near the eastern Carolinas this weekend, accompanied by scattered thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures. Another warm and humid morning with a few showers still developing over the area as a stalling cold front moves through. A weak cold front will attempt to push offshore this morning before stalling and shifting back toward the coast as the sea breeze develops this afternoon. Highs should reach near 90 most spots but with some slightly drier low-level air behind the cold front heat indices mainly shouldn't even reach 100 degrees. The weak cold front should push back offshore bringing the rain chances with it. Lows should be near 70 most places away from the warmer beaches.
1002 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 A slowly departing upper level low will support a mix of sun and clouds along with widely scattered and lighter rain showers today. Temperatures will begin trending warmer on Sunday, with above normal temperatures favored by midweek.
1021 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure moving from the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley will extend north into the region today and Sunday.
For Sunday, a broad upper level trough dips south into the Southeast bringing additional upper level support. The highest chances should lay along the Nature Coast while frontal boundary stalls across northern Florida.
Ridge axis stretched across the Florida Straits will maintain deep west to southwest flow today, leading to a dominant west coast sea breeze. Long extended high pressure across the the Atlantic remains over Florida, with the ridge axis to the south.
921 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 With high pressure in place and northwest flow, the weekend is shaping up to be warm and dry.
High pressure over Arizona will continue to bring hot conditions this weekend. However, drier air along the eastern side of the high pressure is moving into the Four Corners area this morning. The high pressure will continue to bring hot temperatures to the lower elevations of northern Arizona.
917 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure will drift east across the Commonwealth this weekend, before settling south toward the Delmarva region by Sunday night. This high pressure system will give the area a much needed break from the stormy weather and a nice weekend.
938 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure builds in today, bringing mostly dry weather.
Water vapor imagery shows a weak mid level short wave trough moving across Oklahoma at this time.
Ridging will be in control of the area today and bring a hot and mainly dry day to the area.
Upper air plots and water vapor imagery showing upper ridging slowly sinking and stretching from the the SW Gulf over S FL Peninsula in response to upper longwave trough from the Great Lakes digging down into the mid MS River Valley today. For Sunday, a broad upper level trough dips south into the Southeast bringing additional upper level support. The highest chances should lay along the Nature Coast while frontal boundary stalls across northern Florida.
It'll be another very hot day across interior NorCal despite the upper ridge weakening a bit and shifting slightly east.
Weak cyclonic 500mb flow pivots over the region today within the base of a persistent upper trough encompassing eastern North America. High temps in the lower 80s will be right around normal for late July.
605 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (Today and tonight) Cold front has continued to sag south, reaching very close to I-10 early this morning. Slightly cooler temperatures expected this afternoon, ranging from the mid 90s across I-20 to around 100 farther south. Lows tonight may even drop into the 60s in a few locations north of I-20 tonight, but most areas will be in the low to mid 70s.
520 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure will drift east across the Commonwealth this weekend, before settling south toward the Delmarva region by Sunday night.
518 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure will drift east across the Commonwealth this weekend, before settling south toward the Delmarva region by Sunday night.
More numerous showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, return Sunday morning as a warmer and more humid air mass begins to expand across the region.
920 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 A weak front will stall near the eastern Carolinas this weekend, accompanied by scattered thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures. A weak cold front will attempt to push offshore this morning before stalling and shifting back toward the coast as the sea breeze develops this afternoon. Highs should reach near 90 most spots but with some slightly drier low-level air behind the cold front heat indices mainly shouldn't even reach 100 degrees. The weak cold front should push back offshore bringing the rain chances with it. Lows should be near 70 most places away from the warmer beaches.
Further east, highs in the lower to mid 80s look more reasonable given cloud cover and possible scattered showers/storms. Given lower temperatures and dewpoints, heat index values will remain near or below the lower 90s.
608 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front has pushed through the entire FA and has allowed temps to drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s as of 1 AM CDT. Upper flow will become slightly more west-northwesterly today as the upper trough across the eastern CONUS amplifies.
Bufkit soundings also depicted an invert V structure in the lower levels of the soundings which is an indicator that gusty winds. With the higher CAPE values and stronger 0-6 km shear values, have decided to add winds to around 40 mph, small hail and brief heavy rain in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).
501 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023 07z surface analysis had weak trough from northern MN to northeast CO and weak ridge over the CWA. Lee trough in place from central MT to southeast WY. Temperatures will be about 5F warmer than yesterday, which is down a tad from previous forecast given greenness values. Sunday, upper/thermal ridge firmly in place with strong cap.
718 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 High pressure will drift east across the Commonwealth this weekend, before settling south toward the Delmarva region by Sunday night.
Heat Advisories remain in place as heat indices climb into the low 110s. High pressure over the Florida Keys and South Florida has weakened, resulting in a weak pressure pattern and lighter breezes.