Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
No forecast changes this morning as upper ridge builds in from the southwest.
Temperatures have warmed into the 70s across pretty much the entire CWA, with a few locations nosing up into the low 80s.
The upper level trough will be moving east of Arizona allowing the upper high to our west to build over the state.
155 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Upper ridging continues to build in through Saturday, resulting in warmer and mostly dry conditions through much of the weekend.
Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Highs on Saturday will be closer to seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s.
1245 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 (Today and tonight) The cooling trend will continue today as the high aloft shifts east and a trough approaches our area from the west.
A Heat Advisory is out for the high foothills of the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains.
Upper ridging Saturday will result in a mild and mostly dry day.
Not a lot of changes on the general weather pattern, an upper- level ridge remains centered to our west keeping fairly light ENE flow in place across the peninsula, and a weak surface boundary remains stalled over across southern FL. Still though, temperatures will remain around the mid 90s until we approach the evening hours, with heat indices reaching the lower 100s.
Some increased low-level moisture is hanging on with dewpoints in the lower 60s across eastern portions where low clouds and fog were slow to scour out this morning. A quiet night is expected tonight (aside from possibly a few showers over Isle Royale during the evening), as weak high pressure builds in.
Scattered thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures this weekend. A resultant front will nudge into the area later tonight, bringing chances (30-40%) for showers and thunderstorms, with the higher chances remaining north of Springfield. The SPC Day 2 Outlook currently highlights this possibility, with the higher chances of severe weather northeast of the area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Saturday, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s and 90s (hottest over the eastern Ozarks).
Rain activity has started to bubble up this afternoon with coverage mostly in the Lower Keys and Gulf waters near the Dry Tortugas. Winds have stayed light and variable throughout the day with temperatures in the lower 90s. Surface winds will be mostly east to southeast 5 to 10 mph and lows will be in the lower 80s.
However, with the mid-level ridge axis now to our east and dew points sufficiently mixing out this afternoon, it'll be slightly less hot today compared to the past few days. /NEW/ /Saturday Night and Beyond/ By late Saturday, weak troughing will extend from the Great Lakes Region into the Southern Plains causing the persistent mid-level ridge to weaken and shift over the Gulf of Mexico.
Upper ridge will begin to shift southeast into the Gulf coast states tonight, allowing upper wave to move into the region in stronger zonal flow aloft. Also, with the expected cloud cover/precip chances, temperatures will likely be cooler over most areas providing some relief from the excessive heat seen over the last several days.
Current temperatures are already trending 5 to 15 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, valid at 1230 PM PDT. An upper level ridge will be the dominant feature this weekend, and as high pressure builds across the region, temperatures will be on the rise.
(This evening through Saturday Night) Another day, another forecast dominated by the ridge. Thankfully, it looks like the ridge will begin to break down into the weekend. The breakdown of that ridge will be attributed to a strong trough moving through the Midwest.
1200 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 (Today through Saturday) Mid-level ridging will remain parked over Louisiana through the period. Warm and humid tonight with overnight lows in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
203 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Afternoon Forecast: Presently, showers and thunderstorms are popping up along the International Border, along the higher terrain of the Little Rockies and in the Yellowstone River Valley. This holiday weekend, the 500 hPa ridge building over much of the Northwest will bring many locations in the CWA near or above 90 degrees for high temperatures.
*Cooler at the coast with areas of fog each night and morning. Clear skies across the area this afternoon, including the beaches! Conditions today have been warmer than yesterday, with the most noticeable warming in the Inland Empire and the San Diego county mountains. In those areas temperatures as of 1 PM today are 10 to 15, locally 20 degrees warmer than they were at 1 PM yesterday.
Made a few modifications to PoPs for today/tonight, per the latest hi-res short-term guidance suggesting rain chances may be extending themselves a bit further north and east over the CWA by late this afternoon through late this evening, while upper level low pressure energy is over South Dakota/Nebraska, with what can only be loosely defined as a "deformation zone" over the northern half of forecast zones today/tonight. Temperatures will be right around normal today, and a little warmer tomorrow. The period starts off with a s/w ridge building across the region, as a trof over southwest Canada starts digging toward the Northern Rockies. The ridging aloft should serve to keeps things mostly dry until the Tue-Wed time frame.
Upper level ridging dynamics should weaken as tonight, Saturday, into Saturday night progresses. Saturday night low values maybe a degree or two cooler than what is expected to be experienced tonight.
This was occurring in response to modest pressure falls in eastern NM ahead of an upper trough over the Four Corners. Satellite showed a broad SW-NE plume of subtropical moisture ahead of the upper trough axis currently overspreading our far western counties. Some of the higher res soundings depict such a scenario with textbook onion-type soundings. Less organized storms seem plausible late tonight across the Panhandle that should help send a weak cold front south before daybreak. Even this may be too generous as the upper trough axis and subtropical moisture plume will be sliding to our east through the day ahead of increasing subsidence.
518 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2023 (Today and tonight) Last night's cold front was found pressing south of I-20 as of 2 AM ahead of an expanding layer of stratus around 4-5k feet.
High pressure will briefly move into the area today. A quick winter storm will then graze the region Wednesday before high pressure builds back in through the end of the work week.
347 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2023 TODAY/TONIGHT: Another "mild" day in store across the area in a west/southwesterly flow as surface ridging builds eastward through the Central Plains. Even so, remained on the high side of guidance with respect to temperatures today as we have consistently overachieved with highs for the past few days. TONIGHT: High pressure builds into the mid Mississippi Valley tonight with our winds taking on a more south/southeasterly component.
Quite the mild day in store as skies will remain mostly sunny and upper level ridging builds over the High Plains. Should be enough of a breeze nonetheless to mix down some warmer temps aloft. Areas across the western CWA that have little snow cover left could see readings into the low 50s. Mild temperatures will continue on Wednesday and once again leaned towards the warmer side of guidance.
An upper level ridge will push into the region today supporting dry conditions and mostly clear skies. High temperatures will be similar to yesterday, perhaps a degree or two warmer for the I-25 corridor. Weak upper level ridge will move across Colorado Wednesday bringing mild and dry conditions. Westerly flow aloft increases late in the day as an upper level trough over the Northern Rockies nears the state. The upper level trough and accompanying cold front drop southeast across Colorado Wednesday night.
Highs will be in the lower 40s for snowpacked areas and upper 40s to lower 50s elsewhere.
Snow levels are forecast to remain above 5000 feet, therefore keeping snow relegated to the higher terrain of the Cascades, where only 1 to 3 inches are expected through the afternoon.
Breezy conditions were noted across the Keys early this Tuesday morning with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s and comfortable dew points in the mid 60s. Last evening, 500 mb heights had risen to 586 Dm with the center of the mid level high pressure cell just to the west.
The cold front has almost exited the CWA and was draped from Centrahoma to Madill (as of 345AM). The closed upper low over western New Mexico will move slowly to the east with the center of the low prog'd to reach the Texas panhandle by tomorrow morning.
A broad low pressure system will pass through the Upper Great Lakes region with a surface front stretching to the south into the Ohio Valley. Surface wind speeds will also begin to relax as the surface and near surface pressure gradients weaken as the low continues to move further away. Temperatures will be much above normal today with highs in the low 50s and near steady temperatures even in the aftermath of the frontal passage. Temperatures will cool to near freezing tonight, but have concerns that the cloud cover ahead of the next system may limit the extent of cooling.
527 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2023 Key Messages - Dry but cooler Tuesday.
522 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2023 (Today and tonight) Cold front has moved south of I-20 early this morning, pushing into the northern Concho Valley and Heartland. Front will continue south and bring cooler conditions to the area today. Models are consistent in showing isentropic lift over the frontal boundary, with the high res models showing some if starting before sunrise this morning and then expanding in coverage into the afternoon. Meanwhile, the upper level trough continues to push east into the Southern Rockies tonight, adding additional lift to the equation.
Tonight, the gradient will weaken and winds will lessen as a cold front pushes into the western portion of the BRO CWFA, with the front steadily moving east through the region on Wednesday. Finally, the combination of minimum relative humidity percentages and 20-foot winds in the wake of the aforementioned cold front will not support a Red Flag Warning for wildfire activity on Wednesday, but it will support the issuance of a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement at that time.
635 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2023 High pressure brings quiet and slightly mild weather today and then a warmup beginning tomorrow as it moves offshore.
410 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2023 Rain chances will be on the increase through midweek, in advance of a strengthening low pressure system over the Southern Plains.
503 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2023 A slow moving and weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered rain showers to eastern Kentucky later today and tonight.
623 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2023 A slow moving and weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered rain showers to eastern Kentucky later today and tonight.
A cold front will bring gusty winds to northeast Nevada Wednesday along with just a few light snow showers across northern Elko county.
(Today through Wednesday) Weather pattern begins to shift subtly in the short term as high pressure exits east. Dew points continue to be the forecast challenge, particularly as models adjust to the low-level moisture return with light maritime easterly flow. Passing high clouds today will increase in coverage Wednesday as trough approaches from the west.
Difficult travel from snows over Lookout, Lolo, and Marias A pacific cold front will proceed through the Northern Rockies early this afternoon through Wednesday morning. Temperatures will remain above freezing much of the night. A secondary frontal passage pushes through the region early Wednesday morning and will lower temps to freezing or below, resulting in snow by sunrise.
(Today through Wednesday Night) With moisture levels continuing to increase today ahead of a slow moving storm system and its associated cold front, still expecting to see a return and gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage as the day progresses. Cooler temperatures begin to fill into northwest locations late tonight through early Wednesday morning as the cold front begins to work into that area (low to mid 50s over there, low 60s closer to the Houston area and the coast). The timing of the front will be a player for Wednesday's highs with readings currently expected to range from the mid 50s behind the front to the low to mid 70s ahead of the front).
The main area of precipitation was exiting far northeast WI, but patchy light rain/drizzle and freezing drizzle (far north central WI) lingered over the rest of the CWA. Plan to issue another Special Weather Statement to highlight lingering travel concerns over north central/far northeast WI, where freezing drizzle will likely linger for a couple more hours, roads remain slick, and some fog was observed. Highs should be in the lower to middle 30s northwest, and upper 30s southeast. Weak high pressure will arrive tonight and remain over the region on Wednesday.
High pressure at the surface and aloft over the western Atlantic through the period. Slightly warmer on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 70s along the coast and near 80 inland.
With high pressure moving east, winds will shift to southeasterly Wednesday, bringing increased moisture off the Gulf.
314 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday night, then move offshore.
The 12z sounding at KEY revealed rising geopotential heights in the low- to mid-levels up to around the 700 mb isobaric surface, with quasi- steady heights above. Water vapor analysis highlights a departing strong area of low pressure over the north-central Atlantic continue to push eastward, with a dome of anticylonic flow over the Flroida Peninsula. Surface analysis places the axis of the ridge through north-central Florida, resulting in a relatively tight pressure gradient for the CWA. From synopsis, high pressure will continue move offshore the Southeast United States late this afternoon through Wednesday.
An upper-level ridge is centered just off the SWFL coast.
1225 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023 (18Z TAFS) VFR conditions prevail with high pressure in control.
(This evening through Wednesday) The cold front has moved through the entire region this afternoon, with light isolated to scattered showers affecting parts of the area, mainly east of a Sweetwater to Sonora line. The upper level low currently over southwestern New Mexico will move east over El Paso tonight, keeping our area in southwest flow aloft, and maintain isentropic lift over the top of the shallow cold air mass. Then, as the mid/upper level trough pivots, and the axis moves east of the area during the afternoon, skies will clear out from west to east fairly quickly.
1153 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2023 (Today through Wednesday Night) With moisture levels continuing to increase today ahead of a slow moving storm system and its associated cold front, still expecting to see a return and gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage as the day progresses. Cooler temperatures begin to fill into northwest locations late tonight through early Wednesday morning as the cold front begins to work into that area (low to mid 50s over there, low 60s closer to the Houston area and the coast). The timing of the front will be a player for Wednesday's highs with readings currently expected to range from the mid 50s behind the front to the low to mid 70s ahead of the front).
Sunny and warmer today with gusty Santa Ana winds. Warmer still Wednesday under sunny skies.
This trend will continue as strong WAA continues into the area along southwest flow ahead of a cold front off to our west. A slow moving and weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered rain showers to eastern Kentucky later today and tonight.
The large upper ridge to our east will begin to slowly push east in response to a rather deep upper level low over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. As moisture increases and the weak influences of the upper trough to our west inch closer a few warm advection showers could develop mainly over southeastern Mississippi and extreme coastal Alabama. This is where moisture will likely be the highest and thus where any advection showers will reside.
Subsidence under the ridge will result in continued dry weather. The onshore flow which has kept temperatures noticeably cooler near the coast this afternoon, will keep readings a little warmer Tonight. Lows Tonight will range from the lower to mid 50s inland, to the mid to upper 50s at the coast. Patchy fog will be possible over coastal areas of SE GA Tonight, where a cool northeast flow that is in place Today, will be replaced by a more moist and warmer flow from southeast.
232 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023 Temperatures will be above normal through the work week as an area of high pressure lingers for a few days.
(This evening through Wednesday) A positively-tilted, mid/upper-level trough with a closed 500 mb cyclone was located over the Desert Southwest this afternoon where a plume of modified Pacific moisture continues to advect northeastward over north-central Mexico and into the CWA. The mid/upper-level trough is forecast to position over the TX/NM state line near sunrise, shunting the bulk of moist, isentropic ascent to near or east of the 100th meridian as the dry slot noses into the CWA. Clouds will erode from west-to-east, allowing for full insolation with temperatures nearly 10 deg F warmer than today amidst a light, westerly breeze at around 10-15 mph post-FROPA.
An upper low approaching the NW coast will track through WA and northern ID by Wednesday morning.
1255 PM PST Tue Feb 7 2023 Dry conditions are forecast to return this week due to high pressure, which may allow for fog and cold overnight lows to exist across the area. A low pressure system will pass over the forecast area this weekend; expect mainly lower temperatures and a chance for light precipitation. This morning, patchy dense fog and some freezing minimum temperatures were observed in the Central Valley. However, low temperatures will likely be slightly warmer for tonight into Wednesday morning. Temperature trends are up to ten degrees warmer than at this time yesterday. Daytime highs will further warm on Wednesday, as the high pressure ridge remains in place. A low pressure system will pass over portions of Central and Southern California over this weekend.
152 PM MST Tue Feb 7 2023 Weak H5 ridging continues to sweep east across the region, which is keeping skies mostly sunny across the state. The next fast- moving trough will sweep through later tonight into Wednesday, bringing another round of snowfall to the western mountain. After this system moves through, a broad H5 ridge builds across the Rockies, keeping the storm track well to the north for the remainder of the week. A cutoff low drops into the Four Corners region over the weekend, with the associated trough moving across WY.
254 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023 Summary: Quiet weather in the near term as upper level ridging moves in from the west.
1131 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2023 (Today and tonight) Cold front has moved south of I-20 early this morning, pushing into the northern Concho Valley and Heartland. Front will continue south and bring cooler conditions to the area today. Models are consistent in showing isentropic lift over the frontal boundary, with the high res models showing some if starting before sunrise this morning and then expanding in coverage into the afternoon. Meanwhile, the upper level trough continues to push east into the Southern Rockies tonight, adding additional lift to the equation.
Afternoon highs will be fairly seasonable to slightly warmer than normal. A few mid-high level clouds will pass over the region as an upper level trough passes to the north. Otherwise, slightly warmer temperatures today with a few more 60s across the interior.
Partly cloudy skies today with a daytime high in the low 70s. Conditions will be on the dry side with Td in the low 40s.
121 PM MST Tue Feb 7 2023 The northern portion of a splitting trough is moving over the Great Lakes region, while the southern low pressure system hangs out over AZ/NM. As the trough dives into the south central states Wednesday night, a reinforcing shot of cold air will sink into the northern plains, along with a second round of moisture.
Overrunning moisture will increase overnight and the ridge axis that has been over northern CO shift to the south. The wind will start to increase and shift to the northwest late in the afternoon as a cold front starts to push across the area.
The highest probabilities for over 6" of snow central WI into northeast Iowa /50-70%/.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Upper level low over southwest New Mexico will continue to lift out to the northeast through the Texas Panhandle on Wednesday. The low will then move away from the Panhandles Wednesday evening. A few rain and snow showers will be possible tonight on the north side of the low and then some rain and snow will be possible Wednesday across the central and eastern Panhandles in the wrap-around area of the low as it moves east.
Over the next 36 hours, a strong low pressure system will roll out of the southwest states to the Mid Ms Valley.
1144 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2023 TODAY/TONIGHT: Another "mild" day in store across the area in a west/southwesterly flow as surface ridging builds eastward through the Central Plains. Even so, remained on the high side of guidance with respect to temperatures today as we have consistently overachieved with highs for the past few days. TONIGHT: High pressure builds into the mid Mississippi Valley tonight with our winds taking on a more south/southeasterly component.
350 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023 The latest surface analysis shows a cold front draped west of the Commonwealth through the center of the Ohio Valley and into the Mississippi Valley. Clouds will continue to thicken as the cold front inches closer this evening and into the overnight. A strong positively tilted short wave trough located across the southern Plains will gradually become more negatively tilted tonight and into tomorrow. Tomorrow will not be as warm but will remain mild in the mid 50s to low 60s and over night lows in the low to mid 50s.
Higher clouds move in this evening, which could keep temperatures warmer this evening.
1005 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2023 High pressure brings quiet and slightly mild weather today and then a warmup beginning tomorrow as it moves offshore.
1126 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2023 Key Messages - Dry but cooler Tuesday.
Key messages in the short term -Upper level low will bring cloud cover and small chances of rain in south central Kansas -Winds increasing in wake of a cold front moving through Wednesday night 18Z observations are showing an upper level low situated in southern New Mexico with the upper level winds generally out of the southwest. Tonight as the upper level low moves into west Texas mid level clouds will build in from south to north during the overnight hours. The upper level trough will turn neutral as the upper level low moves into northwest Texas. Temperatures will cool on the backside of the low towards late afternoon which may introduce a brief mixed phase period around southeast Barber county. Wednesday night as the first system exits another upper level trough will rotate in from the northwest.
(Wednesday through Tuesday) The upper low begin to open up and eject out over the Southern Plains on Wednesday with precipitation continuing to overspread the region as widespread synoptic ascent moves overhead.
537 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023 (This evening through Wednesday) A positively-tilted, mid/upper-level trough with a closed 500 mb cyclone was located over the Desert Southwest this afternoon where a plume of modified Pacific moisture continues to advect northeastward over north-central Mexico and into the CWA. The mid/upper-level trough is forecast to position over the TX/NM state line near sunrise, shunting the bulk of moist, isentropic ascent to near or east of the 100th meridian as the dry slot noses into the CWA. Clouds will erode from west-to-east, allowing for full insolation with temperatures nearly 10 deg F warmer than today amidst a light, westerly breeze at around 10-15 mph post-FROPA.