Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
348 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 Today we are finishing up the transition out of the persistent trough that has plagued the region for the last couple weeks as ridging builds into the region. Interesting upper level pattern during this shift with the ridge pinching off the western portion of the trough over Ontario as that energy retrogrades all the way back into western Canada.
High pressure has built in over the region and will remain in place for the upcoming week. The easterly flow will also mean the warmest temperatures across the state will be situated across the west coast of Florida where temperatures in the lower 90s are anticipated. High pressure remains in control with the upper-level ridge situated over the eastern US.
A weak line of cumulus clouds has tried to form over the Lower Keys this afternoon, but with very little vertical development. As the eastern low of the block progresses eastward, lower tropospheric ridging will build over along the east coast and settle off the southeast coast. As the ridge builds off the southeast coast, two things of note will occur. Due to the proximity of the ridge center, the surface pressure gradient over the islands will tighten, and winds will increase generally out of the east. Additionally, a plug of moisture will rotate around the eastern periphery of the ridge into the area, increasing precipitable water over 1.
(Through Saturday) Upper level ridging will continue to build across the region through the near term; however, small elongated vorticity streamers are expected to propagate along the northern Gulf of Mexico. This area will have the greatest chances for precipitation as dewpoints increase back into the low 60s by the morning on Saturday. Overall, lows tonight should fall into the low to mid 60s given all of the cloud cover; however, mid morning to afternoon clearing on Saturday should allow for more daytime heating with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s areawide.
244 PM MDT Fri May 5 2023 A trough is parked over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon with a moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. Mid levels will be slightly cooler on Saturday with dry southerly winds developing across the Palmer Divide and eastern plains Saturday afternoon.
Mid level moisture, and a few sprinkles, will try to round a building upper ridge this afternoon, but in general expect this area to shift north and at most brush KMBS. Drier weather returns today and Saturday as upper level ridging builds into southern lower MI. Exception will be areas downwind of the lakes (particularly the Thumb) given the surface east-southeast winds likely holding temps 5- 10 degrees cooler than inland locales. Ridge axis crosses the region latter part of Saturday setting up stronger WAA into lower MI as lower level flow turns southwesterly supporting highs through the weekend reaching the low to mid 70s.
Temperatures a few degrees warmer tomorrow afternoon. Ridging aloft will build across the Mississippi and Ohio Valley's into the weekend. As the ridge aloft extends north, this lifts the energy northward as well, so isolated to scattered showers will lift north tonight into tomorrow. Drier and warmer conditions expected towards the end of the period.
15Z temperatures are several degrees cooler for many areas compared to 24 hours ago, so not really seeing the rapid morning temp rises like yesterday.
258 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 Dry weather and warmer temperatures continue for the first half of the weekend.
Down at the surface, a weak warm front has lifted into the area this morning with its current position generally along the Highway 84 corridor. The main threats with any of the stronger storms will be damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail given the long, straight hodographs and some mid level dry air (and DCAPE values up to 900 J/Kg) as a result of the weak upper ridging. Temperatures this afternoon will generally be in the lower to middle 80s inland with upper 70s near the coast as cloud cover increases across the area. Highs on Saturday are expected to warm into the lower to middle 80s.
Temps will rise into the lower 70s where better sunshine occurs (near/south of I-96), but remain the 60s farther north where the clouds persist. - Slow moderating trend of temps through the weekend - Temps will continue to undergo a slow moderating trend today through the weekend reaching well into the 60s today and into the lower to middle 70s this weekend as the upper level ridge amplifies over our area this weekend.
341 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 High pressure remains in control through Saturday.
330 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 High pressure centered over Hudson Bay will push south across the area through the weekend.
Energy lifting thru WY will provide a period of large scale ascent, and with ample morning sunshine we have seen temps rise to the lower 70s yielding MLCapes to ~500j/kg. We will remain under broad troffing and cooling temps aloft. So, expect occasional accumulating snow showers over the highest terrain. The cooler temps aloft will also limit high elevation snow melt, keeping river levels in check (for now). a little cooler than today. This will keep the area in fairly moist flow with energy moving around the low. There remains some uncertainty with the track of the low, so the placement and timing of the best rain cannot be narrowed down beyond the second half of the week, as the low moves into the plains.
47 (Today through Saturday Night) Temperatures through the short term will be toasty with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows only getting into the low to mid 70s. Dew points will be rising into the low to mid 70s, so not only will it be warm, but also humid.
A very slow moving warm front lifting north from the south combined with peak heating, this environment will set the stage for severe potential. By tonight, sub tropical ridging from the west will build into the region decreasing the chances for overnight rain showers however with this humid air mass in place, diurnal rain and storm chances will continue into tomorrow. An upper ridge will be centered over the area which will usher in warm moist air from the southeast Pacific aloft. At the surface, a low pressure system and attendant warm front will lift northward, ushering in warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.
221 PM MDT Fri May 5 2023 Afternoon Discussion: Change in the pattern is developing with the upper low over the Pacific northwest spinning eastward and merging with westward moving low from the Great Lakes. Morning Discussion: Today: High pressure conditions with gusty east winds will be featured across the region through the late afternoon hours.
(Rest of Today) West-northwest flow aloft on the order of 30-40 knots will persist across the local area today, with the region located north of a subtropical high (extending from the northern Caribbean Sea westward into the Bay of Campeche) and downstream from a low- amplitude mid-level ridge extending northward from the high into southern/central Great Plains. Although the 500-mb vort max responsible for thunderstorms across AR/LA is predicted to track east-southeastward into the Lower TN Valley by 00Z, present indications are that widespread light-moderate rain within an elevated warm advection regime across our region will keep the local airmass fairly stable, especially with the rain falling into a boundary layer featuring dewpoints ranging from the u40s-l50s (NE) to mid 50s (SW). Due to clouds and rainfall, highs will be in the 65-70F range (a few degrees cooler compared to previous days).
Surface analysis indicates a quasi-stationary warm front across eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota. Per water vapor imagery, we still remain in a rather chaotic flow pattern thanks to the retrograding low to our north, and the incoming deep trough over the intermountain west. This should be the extent of cloud cover today prior to the arrival of low pressure overnight. As the associated warm front/theta-e boundary continues to progress further north tonight, an area of focused isentropic ascent will allow for widespread showers (and possibly a rumble of thunder or two). Ensemble guidance continues to promote predominantly southwesterly flow aloft with deep upper level troughing across the western CONUS. The timing and strength of various waves ejecting out of the main trough will affect when our area is most likely to experience precipitation.
The surface features include a developing weak low over far sw KS that will lift a warm front and dryline combo into the evening, with a couple of sensible weather impact, including the possible return of low stratus along the east overnight, and in the meantime, a short window of red flag criterion possibility in the extreme southwest behind the developing dryline. CAMS in our area develop isolated to widely scattered discrete convection in the differential heating and moisture zone / warm frontal area of west central Kansas. Overnight lows in the 40s out west will be courtesy slightly drier air being drawn into western Kansas behind the low.
336 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 Discussion/Marine --Mainly Dry through Saturday-- Height rises are shown through Saturday in response to a speed max moving into the base of the upper trough over the western U. The high temp fcst is tricky on Saturday given uncertainty in extent of cloud cover and mixing depth, with highs near 75 possible but near 70 the more likely scenario under considerable cloudiness. This sets off a round of elevated convection along and north of the incoming warm front, and ensembles have locked in on high probabilities of rain Sat night.
226 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will linger into Saturday before a warm front spreads clouds and chance for showers across the area. Clouds are expected to increase Saturday as a warm front moves into the region from the southwest.
(This evening through Saturday) Increasing and deepening southwesterly flow across the forecast area downstream from a broad trough over the Great Basin should result in warm and quiet weather tonight and Saturday.
In addition to precip chances today temperatures will be on the cooler side. Some of the higher terrain, particularly in the North Bay could see up to 0. Highs will mostly be in the lower 60s with lows in the 40s.
Rain overspread southwest Idaho (including the Lower Snake Basin) from the southeast this morning, preceded by southeast outflow wind gusts to 40 mph. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue this afternoon/evening as the main trough moves northward through our CWA. After a brief break overnight and Saturday morning the next Pacific trough will bring more showers and 10-20% chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms on Saturday, but less total rainfall than today.
An upper level low is currently in place over Idaho with a trough axis that extends south through Nevada and the Colorado River Valley. Models show winds peaking around 00Z and the low level jet at 850 mb at that time is around 40 knots. Flows have decreased over the last few days as cooler temperatures have led to reduced melting.
1045 AM CDT Fri May 5 2023 15Z temperatures are several degrees cooler for many areas compared to 24 hours ago, so not really seeing the rapid morning temp rises like yesterday.
305 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 Seasonal and dry conditions today, with give way to cooler conditions and chances for rain by tomorrow. Recent blocking pattern breaks down tonight, although some mild and dry conditions will be found through this evening. The mentioned wave will bring a cooler day on Saturday with widespread showers across the area. There remains differences on how wrapped up the upper low gets. More wrapping of this low will result in gustier winds across the area, although not all models are showing this potential.
The overnight hours is when we finally see activity pushing northward through the CWA as a wave of low pressure moves through.
Ahead of the low, a sly LLJ and warm, moist advection will aid in the pcpn development.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than normal, with many places in mid 30s to low 40s.
High temperatures this afternoon will reach into the mid to upper 80s for northeast Florida and in the lower 80s over southeast Georgia.
Moisture returning in the low levels will allow for scattered showers and isolated storms tomorrow. High temperatures tomorrow will generally be in the M80s to the west of I-95 with slightly warmer temperatures possible across the far interior. Onshore flow will keep temperatures along the coast cooler in the L80s. Saturday Night-Friday: Guidance strongly suggests a trough will reside just offshore the Eastern Seaboard by Saturday night.
Even with warmer temperatures and a rising dew point, most guidance keeps the region capped and dry, but it is possible that an MCS that develops over Illinois could continue working southeast through southern Indiana and central Kentucky through the evening hours into the overnight.
There's plenty of clouds out there too, and as our troughy pattern persists we'll continue to see mostly overcast skies today, enhanced by an approaching cold front. Another cool day (relative to the time of year) today with cloud cover blocking some of that solar radiation coming in. Through the day we'll continue to see light showers through the region before an enhanced period of precipitation later this evening into tonight as that cold front starts to pull through. Chances are looking better for tomorrow afternoon, as the cold front fully pulls through, leaving a cooler air mass that could help enhance lapse rates.
514 PM MDT Fri May 5 2023 A trough is parked over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon with a moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. Mid levels will be slightly cooler on Saturday with dry southerly winds developing across the Palmer Divide and eastern plains Saturday afternoon.
702 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 Dry weather and warmer temperatures continue for the first half of the weekend.
914 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will linger into Saturday before a warm front spreads clouds and chances for showers across the area. Clouds are expected to increase Saturday as a warm front moves into the region from the southwest.
951 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 Attached to an area of low pressure over the Texas panhandle, a warm front is inching across central Mississippi this evening.
809 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 (Through Saturday) Upper level ridging will continue to build across the region through the near term; however, small elongated vorticity streamers are expected to propagate along the northern Gulf of Mexico. This area will have the greatest chances for precipitation as dewpoints increase back into the low 60s by the morning on Saturday. Overall, lows tonight should fall into the low to mid 60s given all of the cloud cover; however, mid morning to afternoon clearing on Saturday should allow for more daytime heating with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s areawide.
604 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will linger into Saturday before a warm front spreads clouds and chances for showers across the area. Clouds are expected to increase Saturday as a warm front moves into the region from the southwest.
(This afternoon through Saturday) Water vapor imagery clearly shows an upper level trough lurking off the OR/CA border this afternoon. The upper level trough axis will move through Saturday and begin its exit by Saturday evening. The passing showers, clouds, and upper level trough will keep temps below normal on Saturday. However, highs will be a few warmer than Friday and mainly in the upper 50s and 60s.
835 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 Forecast remains on track as moisture in the mid/upper levels continues to increase, along with onshore easterly flow building moisture in the lower levels along quasi-warm frontal boundary that will begin to trigger more shower activity over the Atlantic Coastal waters after midnight, that will push onshore around sunrise with scattered showers/isolated storms during the morning hours that will drift more inland through the afternoon hours. High temperatures this afternoon will reach into the mid to upper 80s for northeast Florida and in the lower 80s over southeast Georgia.
635 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 High pressure centered over Hudson Bay will push south across the area through the weekend.
A cool airmass tied to the much-talked-about West Coast trough is keeping most of our region 10 degrees below normal for this date. As the nearby trough breaks down and lifts off to the north and east, high pressure sets in for Arizona.
252 PM PDT Fri May 5 2023 Cooler than normal temperatures will persist through the weekend.
336 PM PDT Fri May 5 2023 Cooler than normal temperatures will persist through the weekend.
220 PM PDT Fri May 5 2023 An upper level low will move slowly inland across Central California today, keeping a chance of precipitation over the mountains.
The pattern will shift through the weekend as ridging from the W Gulf builds eastward with warming and increasingly humid conditions along with some seabreeze showers and thunderstorms. High pressure has built in over the region and will remain in place for the upcoming week. The easterly flow will also mean the warmest temperatures across the state will be situated across the west coast of Florida where temperatures in the lower 90s are anticipated. High pressure remains in control with the upper-level ridge situated over the eastern US.
617 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Increasing and deepening southwesterly flow across the forecast area downstream from a broad trough over the Great Basin should result in warm and quiet weather tonight and Saturday.
911 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 High pressure centered over Hudson Bay will push south across the area through the weekend.
A trough is parked over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon with a moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. Mid levels will be slightly cooler on Saturday with dry southerly winds developing across the Palmer Divide and eastern plains Saturday afternoon.
719 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 High pressure remains in control through Saturday.
The ongoing region of showers across northern Michigan will be lifted further northward during the night as of result of and subtle expansion of the mid level ridge overhead. Today we are finishing up the transition out of the persistent trough that has plagued the region for the last couple weeks as ridging builds into the region. Interesting upper level pattern during this shift with the ridge pinching off the western portion of the trough over Ontario as that energy retrogrades all the way back into western Canada.
Seasonal and dry conditions today, with give way to cooler conditions and chances for rain by tomorrow. Recent blocking pattern breaks down tonight, although some mild and dry conditions will be found through this evening. The mentioned wave will bring a cooler day on Saturday with widespread showers across the area. There remains differences on how wrapped up the upper low gets. More wrapping of this low will result in gustier winds across the area, although not all models are showing this potential.
-Enriquez Previous Discussion: Change in the pattern is developing with the upper low over the Pacific northwest spinning eastward and merging with westward moving low from the Great Lakes.
719 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 Aviation --Mainly Dry through Saturday-- Height rises are shown through Saturday in response to a speed max moving into the base of the upper trough over the western U. The high temp fcst is tricky on Saturday given uncertainty in extent of cloud cover and mixing depth, with highs near 75 possible but near 70 the more likely scenario under considerable cloudiness. This sets off a round of elevated convection along and north of the incoming warm front, and ensembles have locked in on high probabilities of rain Sat night.
That "IF THEN" weather forecast obviously looses confidence quickly on placement and severity of storms, but non the less is true of this and most other warm frontal summer situations.
Temperatures a few degrees warmer tomorrow afternoon. Ridging aloft will build across the Mississippi and Ohio Valley's into the weekend. As the ridge aloft extends north, this lifts the energy northward as well, so isolated to scattered showers will lift north tonight into tomorrow.
626 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 (Today through Thursday) Under a further amplifying H5 trough, the region will remain on the dry side of this feature.
307 AM MDT Wed May 24 2023 A low pressure system will stall over the Intermountain West through the remainder of the week, resulting in continued shower and thunderstorm activity mainly across SW Idaho over the next several days. The highest forecast uncertainty lies in the intensity and placement of shower and thunderstorm activity through the week, as forecast models continue to disagree over the degree of monsoon moisture that flows into the region.
728 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Aviation Cold front moves through today with little moisture to work with. Strong cold advection this afternoon and evening on northeast winds will result in overnight lows dropping to near or below freezing across the northern interior and in the mid to upper 30s across the rest of the forecast area. Northeast winds will increase behind a cold front today with gusts over 20 knots at times into this evening. A west-east-oriented cold front, currently extending over central Lake Michigan, will advance southward over the remaining portion of the lake through this afternoon.
651 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 High pressure over the area bringing warm and generally sunny skies will be pushed south by. stronger high pressure. A dry cold front enters from the north this evening. Thursday will be significantly cooler by 10-15 degrees as a reinforcing shot of cold air is pushed into the region.
740 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A cold front separating areas of high pressure will push through today. Cooler and breezy conditions will follow for tonight and Thursday, with a warming trend forecast for the weekend. In the late day, some few isolated showers may occur as a cold front passes south. Northeast winds 10-20 mph with higher gusts will usher in cooler and drier air overnight.
610 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 An isolated shower or storm is possible across northern parts of the Mid-South this afternoon otherwise expect dry and seasonable temperatures with highs in the lower 80s.
An isolated shower or storm is possible across northern parts of the Mid-South this afternoon otherwise expect dry and seasonable temperatures with highs in the lower 80s.
529 AM MDT Wed May 24 2023 All in all it looks like more of the same across the area as the dominant feature in the weather continues to be an upper level low over Washington State that continues the moist southwest flow over the area, bringing a continuous feed of Pacific moisture into the area.
621 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 (Today through Thursday) 500mb ridge strengthens through Thursday with the atmosphere over South Texas continuing to dry-out. Mid-Upper northwest subsidence flow east of the ridge axis persist over our region with pwats to bottom out around 1.
726 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 High pressure will remain in control of area weather today, tonight, and tomorrow(for the most part). In fact, we may even see a few showers and storms fire along the high terrain along the Virgina border late in the day Thursday, as some sort of boundary moves south through the area, and pushes existing moisture up the hills and mountains to our east. High temperatures today are still expected to be slightly above normal, with max values in the lower 80s on tap for this afternoon. Thursday looks to a cooler day, due to the passage of the boundary we keeping mentioning, with lower 70s forecast along and north of I-64 and the mid to upper 70s south of there.