Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MH (Issued 341 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023) Today through Saturday: High pressure will continue to gradually slide into and through the Great Lakes Region. With the colder air moving over the warmer lake, we are getting some localized light rain over Lake Michigan. The area of high pressure is expected to move overhead Saturday which should cause the winds to become more light and variable.
408 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 A slow moving cold front moves into the area tonight.
As a result temperatures will drop off into the lower 60s by early Saturday morning -- with a few locations in northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee slipping into the upper 50s.
259 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 An upper low across northeastern Illinois this afternoon will slowly move south southeast into Saturday. The influence of this low will keep some clouds and showers/sprinkles around at times, as well as below average temperatures. The upper low will continue to provide some weak lift, and this lift will work with weak instability to produce some scattered light showers and sprinkles across much of the area. The upper low will be south of the area on Saturday, but low level moisture will linger across the area. Expect highs on Saturday to be a degree or two warmer than today with less cloud cover.
Lows in the lower 50s are expected. Late Saturday night, cloud cover ahead of a cold frontal passage will begin to push southeastward through the area.
204 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2023 19Z surface analysis shows a trough over eastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. On Saturday, cooler air will flow into the forecast area behind a cold front which will move through early in the day.
An upper ridge will begin to build over Western Washington today. The ridge will remain over the area into Saturday then shift east Saturday night.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge parked over southwest New Mexico this afternoon, resulting in another triple-digit day for most of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Entering the South Plains just to the north is a weak cold front, along which some isolated to scattered convection will be possible later this afternoon. The front, a slightly weaker LLJ, and mostly clear skies overnight should allow for slightly cooler overnight lows, although still above normal. Saturday, thicknesses come down a bit as the ridge shifts WSW a skosh, and the front pushes southwest into the Permian Basin, shaving 2-3F off afternoon highs.
1203 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 (Today and tonight) The heat underneath the long-persistent upper high will bring another day of record-breaking afternoon temperatures to southwestern Oklahoma and adjacent areas south of the Red River. South to southeast east of the low will bring very humid air into southeastern Oklahoma. These features along with a weak upper wave moving around the northeastern periphery of the upper high will bring good chances for thunderstorms over south central and southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon and tonight.
Warmer and dry on Saturday. Discussion: A disturbance continues to move into Illinois this afternoon as high pressure slowly builds into the area from the west. Skies will clear from west to east late this afternoon and into this evening as high pressure builds into the area. Low temperatures on Saturday morning will be in the low to mid 50s. Temperatures on Saturday afternoon will be warmer with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
254 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2023 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Near critical fire weather conditions will continue this afternoon and evening in the higher elevation basins of southeast Wyoming.
514 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2023 19Z surface analysis shows a trough over eastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. On Saturday, cooler air will flow into the forecast area behind a cold front which will move through early in the day.
An upper low across northeastern Illinois this afternoon will slowly move south southeast into Saturday. The influence of this low will keep some clouds and showers/sprinkles around at times, as well as below average temperatures. The upper low will continue to provide some weak lift, and this lift will work with weak instability to produce some scattered light showers and sprinkles across much of the area. The upper low will be south of the area on Saturday, but low level moisture will linger across the area. Expect highs on Saturday to be a degree or two warmer than today with less cloud cover.
640 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge parked over southwest New Mexico this afternoon, resulting in another triple-digit day for most of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Entering the South Plains just to the north is a weak cold front, along which some isolated to scattered convection will be possible later this afternoon. The front, a slightly weaker LLJ, and mostly clear skies overnight should allow for slightly cooler overnight lows, although still above normal. Saturday, thicknesses come down a bit as the ridge shifts WSW a skosh, and the front pushes southwest into the Permian Basin, shaving 2-3F off afternoon highs.
636 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 A secondary cold front will bring a reinforcement of cool and dry air to the Mid-South this weekend with highs in the 80s with lows mostly in the 60s.
This points to strong radiational cooling which will allow temperatures to dip to near normal or below normal readings by sunrise Saturday, despite warmer than normal temperatures this afternoon. Late day instability is expected to result in isolated showers/thunderstorms over the higher terrain of the north later in the day. Meanwhile, a weak mid-level short wave trough combined with additive divergence associated with a pair of jet streaks oriented in such a way that the left exit/right entrance regions coincide over the northern tier zones. The forecast remains on track through the midweek period, with the trough associated with the deepening Hudson Bay trough suppressing the subtropical high and pushing its center into northern Mexico.
Lows are still expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s late tonight into early Saturday morning.
An upper short wave now located over the MO/IL border will undergo amplification as it pushes south across the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight into Saturday. Meanwhile, gradual deepening of the northern stream trough across the plains will drive a slow moving low to mid level ridge across Lower Mi during the course of the weekend.
943 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 (Issued 943 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 Areas of dense fog may form late tnt as clear skies and a ridge of high pressure settles over the area. Lows in the lower 50s are expected. Late Saturday night, cloud cover ahead of a cold frontal passage will begin to push southeastward through the area.
635 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 (This evening through Saturday night) High pressure is still situated to our southwest today but is slowly shifting westward, allowing northwest flow and moisture to return.
The stable air mass and weakness of the trough have supported an increase in the coverage of moderate amounts of haze and smoke west of the Cascades. The smoke is being generated by the Tyee Ridge Fire in Douglas County, and also the Smith River and Happy Camp Complexes.
While this may not seem all that odd, it is easy to forget in this pattern that the Florida Keys are at the climatological peak of rainy season! Looking at the synoptic set- up across CONUS, an expansive mean layer ridge is set up across the southwest, while a mid to upper level trough is parked over the eastern United States. Temperatures will drop into the lower 80s, and dew points will remain in the lower 70s.
DNM A secondary cold front will bring a reinforcement of cool and dry air to the Mid-South this weekend with highs in the 80s with lows mostly in the 60s.
An upper ridge will build into the area this weekend for warmer, drier weather.
939 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 Southern Indiana and central Kentucky will enjoy another quiet night with partly cloudy skies beneath an upper low and low-level CAA. With moisture depth being limited in the lower atmosphere, think any additional shower chances will be pretty slim. Could see an isolated shower or sprinkle in our eastern zones where moisture depth in the low-levels are slightly higher vs out west.
A weak upper ridge will support dry conditions for the remainder of tonight.
622 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 Currently have upper ridging situated over the Desert Southwest and spans across all of the southern Plains. At the surface, high pressure is located over the Western Great Lakes region with a stationary front down across southern OK/Northern TX. Not much is expected to change for tonight into Sat with the upper ridging remaining strong across the Desert Southwest with upper troughing over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. This will continue to promote above normal temps for Sat with highs generally in the low 90s. For Sat night into Sun, upper energy will move out of southern Alberta/Saskatchewan and into the Northern Rockies which will allow a strong cold front to be on the move.
817 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend as disturbances rotate across the region, associated with a slow- moving upper trough.
755 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 Upper level troughing will keep below normal temperatures in place for the Ohio Valley through the weekend. Weak disturbance lifting northeast ahead of the mid-level trough will increase shower chances in the far southeast Saturday afternoon.
808 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 (Through Saturday) The upper troughing regime with attendant cutoff low will persist through the near term.
531 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2023 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Near critical fire weather conditions will continue this afternoon and evening in the higher elevation basins of southeast Wyoming.
1006 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 Upper level troughing will keep below normal temperatures in place for the Ohio Valley through the weekend. Weak disturbance lifting northeast ahead of the mid-level trough will increase shower chances in the far southeast Saturday afternoon.
An upper-level low will dig south across the TN Valley early Saturday, stall during the day, then lift northeast towards the Blue Ridge Saturday night. As the upper low approaches the region, several vort max perturbations will lift north across the region, and along with the stalled front and outflow boundaries, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, especially in the afternoon and evening. A few showers/thunderstorms may develop Saturday morning, then after several hours of heating, dewpoints in the low 70s and the instability aloft, strong to locally severe storms may develop and move south to north across the region through the evening. Highs will be lower on Saturday compared to earlier this week, with temperatures ranging from the low to mid-80s.
913 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2023 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Near critical fire weather conditions will continue this afternoon and evening in the higher elevation basins of southeast Wyoming.
Southern Indiana and central Kentucky will enjoy another quiet night with partly cloudy skies beneath an upper low and low-level CAA. With moisture depth being limited in the lower atmosphere, think any additional shower chances will be pretty slim. Could see an isolated shower or sprinkle in our eastern zones where moisture depth in the low-levels are slightly higher vs out west.
413 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 Some localized patchy ground fog possible this morning then decreasing clouds today with afternoon peaks of the sun beginning west of I-69 and slightly warmer temperatures today.
H500 ridge axis will begin to build east from the Pacific Northwest and over the Northern Rockies through the day; however, an embedded wave within the downstream side of the building ridge will dive south from over Southern Alberta and over North Central through Southwest Montana from the morning through early evening hours.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) Temperatures remain well above normal this weekend, despite a weak cold front currently entering out region. The remnant cold front may also help initiate thunderstorms across this same area as it likely stalls and retreats north during the afternoon. Sunday sees a better chance of precipitation across portions of the region as subsidence from the upper-level ridge continues to loosen its grip on the region.
353 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 The Mid-Mississippi Valley remains sandwiched between upper level ridging over the western two-thirds of the CONUS and troughing over the remaining eastern third. At the surface, high pressure centered in the Upper Midwest continues to dominate our sensible weather, providing radiational cooling conditions at night and ensuring dry, temperate conditions during the day. Sunday will be slightly warmer, being another day with abundant insolation and deep mixing. While we're experiencing another day of tranquil weather on Sunday, upper level ridging will begin to give way to an upper level troughing situated in Canada and the Upper Midwest.
A hot and muggy air mass is south of the boundary with a somewhat cooler and drier air mass to the north. Aloft a trough is over the eastern CONUS with a ridge centered near the Baja.
135 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 Upper level troughing will keep below normal temperatures in place for the Ohio Valley through the weekend. Weak disturbance lifting northeast ahead of the mid-level trough will increase shower chances in the far southeast Saturday afternoon.
319 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 Upper low over Illinois and Indiana will drift southward across Kentucky today, settling into the Tennessee Valley by late tonight.
An upper short wave now located over the MO/IL border will undergo amplification as it pushes south across the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight into Saturday. Meanwhile, gradual deepening of the northern stream trough across the plains will drive a slow moving low to mid level ridge across Lower Mi during the course of the weekend. High pressure will sustain dry conditions on Sunday.
1247 AM MDT Sat Sep 9 2023 An upper level high continues to sit to the south with ridging extending up into the CWA. A weak mid level trough extends into the northern parts of the state with a frontal boundary at the surface that will slowly push south and southeast Saturday becoming stationary from northwest to southeast across the CWA. Any precipiation looks to be for points east of the Divide once again with any marginal severe weather for eastern portions of the state in the better dynamics into the high plains of Nebraska and South Dakota.
1028 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2023 19Z surface analysis shows a trough over eastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. On Saturday, cooler air will flow into the forecast area behind a cold front which will move through early in the day.
This Afternoon through Sunday Afternoon High pressure will lead to warm and mainly dry conditions, along with light winds. Better chances for rain will hold off until Sunday evening/night, associated with a deepening upper trough digging into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.
355 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 A weak disturbance moving across the northern plains will push a cold front into northwestern Kansas by this evening. The location of this front could be influenced by morning storm activity; so it is not possible to pinpoint the most favored area for strong to severe t-storms and locally heavy rain; but I suspect areas south and west of Dodge City would have the highest chance, including Ulysses, Meade, Liberal and Elkhart. If overnight and morning storms are more abundant, then temperatures could be cooler than this across much of the area.
At the same time a weak mid level trough will develop along the Appalachians. The low will continue to meander around the area through Sunday. Meanwhile, the trough will begin to push northeast late afternoon.
Cool Canadian high pressure sinking southwards undercuts the upper trough overhead, resulting in continued stable surface conditions.
129 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 A slow moving cold front moves into the area tonight.
(Today through Sunday) Upper ridging centered near the Arizona-New Mexico border this morning, with an upper trough extending from western Kentucky to Florida. At the surface, high pressure extended from the Canadian Prairie Provinces into the Great Lakes. With the cooler conditions and longer nights, there are a few patches of reduced visibilities due to light radiation fog. The portion of the upper trough over western Kentucky this morning will shift southeastward to eastern Tennessee by Sunday evening.
* Front arrives late Sunday bringing increased rain chances, especially across western Kansas, along with cooler temps.
320 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 A cold front will become nearly stationary over Northern and Western PA today into Sunday.
217 AM MDT Sat Sep 9 2023 Combination of a cold front moving S through the forecast area, along with an inverted trough over south-central MT and some jet divergence was supporting showers and thunderstorms moving E across mainly southern parts of the area early this morning. Precipitation will continue through tonight with the highest chances in the evening. PWAT's begin decreasing on Sunday as an upper ridge moves over the region.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, with highest chances across the higher terrain and Cumberland Plateau. Discussion: Mid/upper level troughing remains in place early this morning and will be slow to move through the day today. At the surface, high pressure sits across the Great Lakes with an area of low pressure across the northern GoM. Upper level troughing will continue to place the area within broad ascent. Showers and storms will develop this afternoon with the better chances being across the higher terrain, and across the Cumberland Plateau.
Weak high pressure will then return, before a cold front crosses the area mid week. Larger scale troughiness encompasses the eastern CONUS with one vorticity center moving off the eastern Florida coast. At the surface, low pressure is over the western Florida Panhandle with an inverted trough that extends northeastward along the east coast. Today: Larger scale troughing will further develop across the southern/southeastern CONUS throughout the day, providing persistent larger scale background forcing for ascent across the region. Otherwise, a cooler day is anticipated, particularly across southeast South Carolina with cloud cover and shower activity. I have highs in the lower to middle 80s across southeast South Carolina and the middle to upper 80s in southeast Georgia.
(Today through Sunday) A short wave trough is digging into KY early this morning and we will see this short wave close off over eastern TN today. By the afternoon instability will build under the closed low and that will bring afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances for eastern areas. The upper level low will begin to open up on Sunday and will start to lift. Highs over the weekend will be a bit blow average in the lower 80s, upper 70s over the Plateau.
There's also the possibility of radiation fog/lower stratus forming over nrn sections later tonight where clear skies and light winds prevail closer to the ridge axis. So despite the arrival of surface ridging, low clouds may continue to plague the area to some extent into Saturday morning before more substantial clearing develops in the afternoon. Forecast soundings/low level RH overviews suggest the risk of radiation fog/stratus under the ridge axis again on Saturday night. We'll begin to cloud up Sunday night as a cold front approaches.
406 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 The region will remain between high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes and a stalled front along the Appalachians through the weekend.
(Today and tonight) In the wake of the weak front that moved through Oklahoma yesterday, northeast to east winds will bring a bit cooler air today though afternoon temperatures will still be 5 to 10 degrees above average. These would be associated with a weak mid- level trough moving around the northeast quadrant of the upper high along with northward-moving lower level moisture in the Texas panhandle.
1103 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 A cold front will become nearly stationary over Central PA late today into Sunday.
(Today through Sunday Night ) A closed upper low centered over the lower OH River Valley region early this Sat morning will continue to rotate south by this afternoon.
(Today) A ridging west and troughing east upper level pattern continued over the greater North American domain. An upper low over the Ohio Valley, a portion of the eastern CONUS trough should move southward over the next couple of days. Lower heights associated with the low as it nears the Tennessee Valley should help lower high temperatures, more into the mid 80s today.
358 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 The wake of the frontal passage will leave us with relatively cooler and drier conditions today. Tonight will be much of the same as mostly clear skies prevailing with low temperatures in the low 60s.
412 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 A slow moving cold front moves through the area today.
and Sunday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes and a cold front sagging south across North Dakota and far northern Minnesota early this morning. The weak low or inverted trough-like feature will also shift east and across Wisconsin tonight into Sunday. Sky/Precip: Ample sunshine will be present today as high pressure slowly moves east. With the inverted trough and pwat axis across the region, light precip chances will continue on Sunday. Models point towards areas from central to northeast WI as having the highest chance, 40-60% (generally west of the Fox Valley and Bayshore).
(Now through Sunday) With upper level troughing rooted over the eastern CONUS and dry air remaining firmly in place across the forecast area we should have a fairly quiet weekend in terms of weather. I have kept dewpoints lowered across the area given the dry airmass in place hovering in the lower to middle 60's for the weekend, but not quite as low as they were yesterday.
153 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 A cold front will become nearly stationary over Central PA late today into Sunday.
1229 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge parked over southwest New Mexico this afternoon, resulting in another triple-digit day for most of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Entering the South Plains just to the north is a weak cold front, along which some isolated to scattered convection will be possible later this afternoon. The front, a slightly weaker LLJ, and mostly clear skies overnight should allow for slightly cooler overnight lows, although still above normal. Saturday, thicknesses come down a bit as the ridge shifts WSW a skosh, and the front pushes southwest into the Permian Basin, shaving 2-3F off afternoon highs.
Patchy dense fog has developed across portions of western Wisconsin overnight, but otherwise warmer temperatures have kept the fog threat much less widespread compared to yesterday. Cooler & drier area filters into the region behind the front tonight through Sunday, but lingering cyclonic flow means that cloud cover and possibly a few showers will persists through Sunday - especially across eastern MN & western WI. Cool temperatures persist into midweek as deep troughing sets up aloft over the Great Lakes & a broad region of Canadian high pressure sets up over the region.
(Today and tonight) Quiet weather is expected for a majority of today under the influence of an upper ridge centered over southern AZ/NM.
527 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 Some localized patchy ground fog possible this morning then decreasing clouds today with afternoon peaks of the sun beginning west of I-69 and slightly warmer temperatures today.
An upper ridge centered along the Rocky Mountain Divide will result in a southwest flow aloft into the weekend.