Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs gradually increase with most of the region expecting to reach the low to mid 80s today and Wednesday. A cooler air mass out of Canada makes its way southward pushing in cooler and drier air into the region. The cold front is expected to move across the region in an unconventional NE to SW track kicking temperatures late this week back into the low 80s across W MO and E KS and upper 70s in far NE MO.
147 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Warm and mainly dry weather is likely to persist through Wednesday under high pressure.
A stronger cold front will enter the area on Thursday and usher in some much drier air for the area along with warmer temperatures.
915 PM PDT Tue May 23 2023 A trough deepening along the West Coast will keep a deep marine layer in place this week with areas of morning drizzle west of the mountains. The trough will also bring gusty winds and gradual cooling to the mountains and deserts.
Omega block pattern responsible for the stretch of warm, dry weather will begin to break down as deep troughing develops over the Northeast and a cut off low develops over the Mid-south and Southeast over the next few days. At the surface, a reinforcing shot of high pressure and relatively cooler air dives southward later today and tonight, with the high becoming centered over the Great Lakes region. Northerly winds will also usher in cooler air with 850mb temperatures falling from around 12-14C Wednesday to 5-7C by Thursday afternoon. Post frontal environment will be cooler with forecast soundings showing much lower mixing heights for Thursday. Models continue to struggle with run to run and model to model consistency regarding spacial and temporal considerations with a developing upper low.
Near-freezing temperatures Wednesday and Thursday night in the northern tier could damage sensitive vegetation. Noticeably cooler/chilly and drier airmass will be ushered into CPA tonight behind a northerly breeze. 24hr minimum temp chance will be 15-20F colder across the northern tier with fcst lows near the freezing mark. Canadian high pressure will build south into Pennsylvania Thursday, ushering in clear/cool weather and sweeping high level smoke south of the state. Mixing down 850mb temps around 5C translates to high temps ranging from near 60F over the N Mtns, to the upper 60s across the Lower Susq Valley. Cloud cover builds on Wednesday, as a cold front slides southward from NY.
Early afternoon objective analysis showed more pronounced troughing continuing to develop along the West Coast, promoting persistent dry southwesterly flow aloft over the region. Ensemble guidance is in very good agreement that troughing will persist across the western CONUS through this weekend, resulting in continued dry conditions and temperatures close to normal for this time of year. Heading through the latter half of the week, heights are set to gradually fall as the troughing slowly shifts inland and weakens. This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures near to slightly below normal towards the end of the week with the more notable temperature decreases focused across the western CWA closer to the trough. These releases will continue to impact unbridged crossings with multiple roads reportedly closed due to flooding.
We'll have another tranquil night tonight with surface ridging to our east and upper ridging to our west. Tomorrow a cold front will approach from the north. Afternoon highs will again be in the lower and middle 80s. about five degrees warmer than normal. The mid-week synoptic view will feature an Omega pattern over the lower 48, with extensive ridging over the central Plains stretching from the Mexican border to the Canadian border, and troughs over both coasts. An associated back door cold front will be pushed southward through the Ohio Valley, likely passing through at least some of the forecast area by the mid to late morning on Thursday. What is expected, however, is slightly cooler temps as a CAA regime follows, with low level NE flow, and mid to high level NW flow aloft.
350 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 High pressure will remain in control of area weather today, tonight, and tomorrow(for the most part). In fact, we may even see a few showers and storms fire along the high terrain along the Virgina border late in the day Thursday, as some sort of boundary moves south through the area, and pushes existing moisture up the hills and mountains to our east. High temperatures today are still expected to be slightly above normal, with max values in the lower 80s on tap for this afternoon. Thursday looks to a cooler day, due to the passage of the boundary we keeping mentioning, with lower 70s forecast along and north of I-64 and the mid to upper 70s south of there.
Unique weather pattern over the central US with upper level ridge across the Central and Northern Plains inching east into the upper Midwest.
This morning, an upper level ridge sits over the northern and central Plains, while an upper level trough extends from eastern Canada south into New England and the Great Lakes region, and another upper level trough extends from Alberta Canada south into the western CONUS. What this generally will mean for us will be greater rain/thunderstorm chances generally west and south of the Tri-Cities area, especially as the area of high pressure to our east will help to prevent this system from progressing very far eastward.
308 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Key Messages: - Cooler Today and Thursday.
Temperatures today also look to be slightly cooler then yesterday, although still mild and in the 70s and 80s. Strengthening of the low level jet will keep winds at least breezy through the night across most areas. Through the end of the work week an upper level ridge to our east and troughing to our west will continue to provide for an unsettled, mild, and breezy to windy pattern.
106 AM PDT Wed May 24 2023 Temperatures fall to near average today before warming up Memorial Day weekend into the lower 90s. The ridge which has kept us above average the past week and brought our first upper 90s and triple digits has slid off to the east as a trough is sliding in to our area. This trough brings in an on-shore flow which will help cool temperatures to average starting today.
140 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Aviation Back door cold front timing is for an early Wednesday morning fropa and a stark change to the currently calm/mild conditions. The high pressure that has dominated the last few days will shift westward as a upper level trough swings through. A mid level high pressure system remains over the region into the start of the holiday weekend. With the 850 mb thermal trough in place Thursday, the temperatures will end up cooler than normal.
1058 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023 A little weak low level warm advection is incoming on near surface southeasterlies, with dew points running in the lower 60s. Weak pva from nearby low pressure aloft may coexist at times and combine with diurnal instability to touch off an isolated shower or storm during the heat of the pm today-tmrw. trof drags a cold front across the Ohio valley. High pressure builds across the Great Lakes in its wake, and will begin to push this refreshingly cooler/drier air our direction. The aforementioned high will firm its grip as it settles over the Great Lakes and influences the lower Ohio river valley with its cool/dry northeasterly near surface flow.
1234 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The short term forecast is a challenging one as the region remains under northwest flow aloft with an upper ridge sitting near the TX/NM border.
A dry cold front drops south through the region later today. Highs today will range widely, from the upper 60s near Lake Michigan to the lower 80s south of US 24 in Indiana.
341 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Marine Cold front moves through today with little moisture to work with. Strong cold advection this afternoon and evening on northeast winds will result in overnight lows dropping to near or below freezing across the northern interior and in the mid to upper 30s across the rest of the forecast area. A cold front will move though this morning without much in the way of weather, just some mid level clouds across central and eastern Lower Michigan with ceilings AOB 4000 feet AGL. A west-east-oriented cold front, currently extending over central Lake Michigan, will advance southward over the remaining portion of the lake through this afternoon.
120 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Outside of a brief cooldown behind a cold front, seasonably warm conditions are expected to dominate the next 7 days. High pressure remains over the CWA through late tonight, leading to continued dry, clear conditions overnight. Throughout the day Wednesday, a cold front arrives from the north. The RAP-NCEP smoke model shows a large swath of Canadian wildfire smoke riding around the high pressure system. Right now, this model shows the heaviest areas of smoke aloft remaining east of our area, but some could move into the CWA ahead of the cold front Wednesday.
259 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 A cold front will bring widespread showers and a few thunderstorms later today. Cooler and drier conditions will round out the week, with a risk of frost and localized freezing temperatures Thursday night. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s tomorrow night, but winds will likely prevent frost development. However, we may still need freeze headlines, as a few locations in the sheltered valleys of the Catskills and in Northern Oneida County may reach or drop below freezing. A large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will expand southeast and take control of our weather this period.
Another wave of storm development in the High Plains and off the Caprock in the Texas Panhandle is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, with a line of showers/storms expected to arrive into the region Wednesday evening and move through overnight.
243 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 The region remains under a mid-level ridge, sandwiched between two troughs along each coast. Through the day the trough along the East Coast will dig southward. In the lower levels moisture will advect northwestward into the forecast area, but will be squashed to the west by dry air moving south with the push of the mid-level trough. At the surface a cold front will push southwestward through the forecast area, bringing cooler, dry air into the forecast area. Most of the forecast area will be in the mid to upper 70s, near normal, while central and southeast Missouri will remain seasonally warm with temperatures in the low 80s.
(Today through Thursday) 500mb ridge strengthens through Thursday with the atmosphere over South Texas continuing to dry-out. Mid-Upper northwest subsidence flow east of the ridge axis persist over our region with pwats to bottom out around 1.
The threat of any showers is over the higher terrain locations mainly in the northern mountains.
100 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 High pressure will keep conditions dry across the Mid Atlantic through today. A cold front should provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge on Thursday, but an area of low pressure moving northward could bring a better chance of rain for the upcoming weekend. High pressure will keep control across the Mid Atlantic to continue this recent stretch of dry weather. High pressure will head southward on Wednesday night as a cold front approaches from the north. Scattered low clouds could develop later in the night, which may keep temperatures a couple degrees higher compared to the lows that will be observed this morning.
247 AM MDT Wed May 24 2023 08Z analysis depicts an upper trough over the western CONUS with a ridge over the great plains, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft over the western parts of the forecast area. The overall pattern will change little over the next several days as the upper trough remains over the west coast states and the ridge over middle of the country drifts slowly eastward over the Mississippi river valley. Warmer than average temperatures will continue, with gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms heading into the holiday weekend.
537 AM MDT Wed May 24 2023 08Z analysis depicts an upper trough over the western CONUS with a ridge over the great plains, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft over the western parts of the forecast area. The overall pattern will change little over the next several days as the upper trough remains over the west coast states and the ridge over middle of the country drifts slowly eastward over the Mississippi river valley. Warmer than average temperatures will continue, with gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms heading into the holiday weekend.
A trough digs southward through California but remains to our west, which keep us on the left side of a ridge.
532 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 The region remains under a mid-level ridge, sandwiched between two troughs along each coast. Through the day the trough along the East Coast will dig southward. In the lower levels moisture will advect northwestward into the forecast area, but will be squashed to the west by dry air moving south with the push of the mid-level trough. At the surface a cold front will push southwestward through the forecast area, bringing cooler, dry air into the forecast area. Most of the forecast area will be in the mid to upper 70s, near normal, while central and southeast Missouri will remain seasonally warm with temperatures in the low 80s.
625 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 (Today) An Omega Block like flow pattern has become entrenched over the lower 48 this early Wed morning, with upper trough axes in place over the Atlantic states and the West Coast, while a strong upper ridge pattern occupies the Plains states. A weak area of high pressure also remains layered from the mid Atlantic Coast SW into the mid TN Valley. These features combined are translating into dry/near seasonal wx conditions for the local area, with highs later today climbing mainly into the lower 80s/near 80F.
For the rest of Saturday, a ridging pattern is going to move in, keeping our weather calm and pleasant for the remainder of the weekend. Lows will cool into the mid 30s with a few areas touching freezing across the Plateau.
The initial cold front had moved rapidly east with severe storms exiting the area not long after midnight. Light precipitation enhanced some by Lake Michigan and supported by an upper level trof will bring light rain and snow showers, but no snow accumulations are expected.
Meanwhile, the main push of cooler air was entering NW AR early this mrng. The high center wl quickly shift to the east of the FA by later tngt, allowing S/SE winds to return heading into Sun.
Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 70s across the Big Country, to the upper 70s and lower 80s elsewhere. The increase in moisture and cloud cover will result in milder temperatures tonight, with overnight lows mainly in the low to mid 50s.
Upper level analysis shows aforementioned low being stacked, with modest ridge pushing into the northern plains. A few short waves noted in the flow pushing over the Rockies behind the ridge. Otherwise, a rather quiet day is expected as the ridge passes over with skies remaining mostly sunny. This will result in some precipitation developing, and given the thermal ridge sliding east, warm air remains aloft. Thus, some light freezing rain will be a threat overnight until the warmer air pushes east. Precipitation chances remain over northern locations through the day on Sunday as the aforementioned wave closes off, but the threat for freezing precipitation will only remain near the Turtle Mountains to start the day, ending by late morning.
1206 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 (Today and tonight) A quiet and cooler day today.
The leading edge of a cold front is pushing into SE Oregon this morning with moderate snow in Baker City and a thunderstorm to the north. Rain/Snow mix across the Lower Treasure Valley with all snow elsewhere.
(This evening through Sunday Night) High pressure days like this are already numbered with RH cratering this afternoon. This 1021mb high pressure over the plains areas will slide E tonight across the MS River valley and spin our winds around the dial to light N/NE this evening and light E/SE early on Sunday.
A compact upper low. as the aforementioned lee cyclone weakens and progresses eastward into KS. A broader/less-defined lee cyclone and somewhat convoluted MSLP-H85 pattern will evolve over the Tri-State area on Sun.
The main cold front is moving through northwestern Alabama at this time. A large area of high pressure will start moving into the area behind it overnight.
345 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Tonight and Sunday: The cold front has slipped southeast of the area, with substantially drier air moving in and mostly sunny conditions. However, a warm front will begin to return northward by Sunday afternoon in advance of an approaching upper disturbance.
Dry weather expected over the weekend with warmer temperatures expected by Sunday.
High pressure moves overhead mid-morning, and we will see return flow by the afternoon.
High pressure will move east across the state today. Sunday will be a warmer day with highs in the 70s for much of the FA.
(18Z TAFS) A broken line of convection extending from south central Alabama into extreme southeast Mississippi is oriented near/along a cold front. /29 (Now through Sunday) A vigorous upper trof over the interior eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic tonight. A cold front currently extending from south central Alabama into extreme southeast Mississippi will progress slowly into the northern Gulf this evening.
Issued by National Weather Service La Crosse WI 320 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Surface ridging will build in today with a rapid return to warm advection and breezy south winds and warming Sunday. Most precipitation chances are expected to stay north of the area as a cold front shifts through and stalls over or just south of the area.
Winds will be light today, but begin to increase on Sunday as a trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.
150 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Confidence is increasing that strong wind gusts, over 50mph will occur this afternoon with an advancing cold front. 1:30PM Update: A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to cross into western PA along a cold front boundary. Regardless if you see storms or not, there will be strong wind gusts from a noted pressure gradient associated with this advancing low pressure system. Wind gusts will remain elevated until at least 00Z for the lower terrain; 06Z for areas above 2kft. However, confidence with a wintry mix/snow will be confided mostly to the ridges. Precipitation chances will wrap up by late morning; a light coating of snow may occur in the higher elevations. Ridging will promote dry and seasonable weather Sunday afternoon.
1142 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Confidence is increasing that strong wind gusts, over 50mph will occur this afternoon with an advancing cold front. 1130AM update: A line of convective has developed over the last hour in western OH along a cold front. Regardless if you see storms or not, there will be strong wind gusts from a noted pressure gradient associated with this advancing low pressure system. Wind gusts will remain elevated until at least 00Z for the lower terrain; 06Z for areas above 2kft. As the cold air continues to overspread the region, rain showers could change to snow showers, particularly over the north and ridges. However, with very dry air aloft there will be no ice to fall into the lower layers. Ridging and high pressure will slide over the region Sunday, promoting a dry and seasonable weather day.
Dew points are below freezing in Idabel and DeQueen with 30s edging over I-20 now in our Parishes and working down into deep E TX.
1234 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Lingering light showers are moving out of the Pine Belt area this morning ahead of a cold front that currently extends from near Monroe LA to near the Golden Triangle area. Due to the low RHs resulting from this dry airmass, limited fire danger concerns exist, particularly in areas that received limited rainfall overnight. The boundary was on the heals of any storms and bringing much drier/cooler air in quickly. By Sunday morning, low-level dry air will have moved into the Lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of a weak surface boundary clearing the area.
255 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Strong gusty winds will continue through this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler high pressure will follow for late tonight through Sunday, before pushing offshore Sunday night.
Satellite imagery and cumulus streamers suggest the low-level ridge reaches west across the northern Bahamas and South Florida. Temperatures this afternoon are in the mid to upper 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 70s. The western extent of the low-level ridge axis will remain weakened tonight through Sunday night. Thereafter, high pressure will mature across the western North Atlantic downstream from a reinvigorated mean-layer ridge.
334 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Remaining scattered light showers associated with various vorticity centers within mid level low pressure will shift east/southeast of the region late afternoon into early evening as the mean trough axis pivots through the region. This clearing, along with diminishing northerly winds, will promote chilly temperatures by early Sunday morning with lows in the lower to mid 20s.
248 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front have moved east of the area with the cold front moving through the area this evening. High pressure and drier air will build into the region tonight through Sunday night.
Under clear skies with light winds, tonight's temperatures will be chilly in the mid-30's with a couple of locations across the Upper Cumberland forecast to be close to the freezing mark. Otherwise, we're in store for a well-deserved quiet Sunday as weak ridging builds over the area.
Winds will go nearly calm by the middle of the night as a center of high pressure moves overhead. High to mid level clouds will increase during the day, especially with greater northward extent, as low pressure approaches Upper Michigan.
227 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Warmer temperatures this weekend with a wintry mix tonight across the north. 1-2 inches are possible north of Highway 2, with a slight chance of freezing rain along and north of the Missouri River and Highway 200. We reduced the chance of freezing rain down to a slight chance because most model soundings have the temperature profile quickly saturating and turning from rain to snow. It could also create patchy blowing snow, however with above freezing temperatures today, the snow may be crusted over too much to actually create issues.
Ongoing low level cold advection will be somewhat offset by full sun with afternoon temps warming into the low to mid 60s area wide.
419 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Windy conditions and scattered showers will continue through early evening behind a strong cold front. Dry and cooler weather is expected Sunday under building high pressure. Thunderstorm chances E of PIT will continue to diminish as a strong cold front exits the region. There will be strong wind gusts from a noted pressure gradient associated with the advancing low pressure system. Wind gusts will remain elevated until at least 00Z for the lower terrain; 06Z for areas above 2kft. However, confidence with a wintry mix/snow will be confided mostly to the ridges. Precipitation chances will wrap up by late morning; a light coating of snow may occur in the higher elevations. Ridging will promote dry and seasonable weather Sunday afternoon.
Tomorrow will a little cooler across the region, with highs in the 70s behind today's cold front. The upper low will swing across the northeast this afternoon and winds will likely increase to advisory criteria so we have extended the wind advisory through 7 pm for the north central and north eastern areas. High pressure will continue to build in tonight and will result in fair skies. On Sunday high pressure will begin to exit the area and clouds will begin to build in the west late afternoon ahead of the next system.