Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
_______________________________________________________________ Short Term Discussion: We're starting off a bit warmer than this time yesterday, with temperatures in the mid/upper 50s to mid 60s. WAA and mixing into the warmer layers aloft keeps highs in the 80s to near 90 across our part of the Plains. Wildfire smoke aloft and cloud cover help keep overnight lows a touch warmer, despite the somewhat cooler temperatures aloft.
The high pressure system continues it's progression further west today.
(Today through Tuesday Night ) Quiet and cooler conditions had returned to the Natural State in the wake of a frontal boundary. Highs today should range from the lower 80s to to around 90 degrees. Aloft, the ridge responsible for the recent bout of heat will be located over invof Four Corners region with a broad ridge over the OH Valley into New England.
1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (This evening through Monday night) The Panhandles are in the northeastern periphery of a Southwestern US upper-level ridge, leading to northwesterly flow aloft.
All the while, a high over the northeast will meander into the Atlantic, allowing a trough of low pressure to fill in east of the Pittsburgh metro. Brief calm to southwest flow against the ridges may allow for a return of warmer, moister air. A lack of a subsidence cap may allow instability to develop in the ridges. With orographic lift, thunderstorms will be most likely in the ridges, but possible east of the Pittsburgh metro. Conditions are marginal, with DCAPE of roughly 600-1000 J/kg and freezing levels around 15000 ft. Although, given the dry air, there is potential for the freezing level to lower and air temperature aloft to reduce within storms through wet- bulbing. A mid-week upper trough will cross eastern Canada, but ensembles favor low precipitation chances for our area as this feature stays too far north.
Trough moves through Ontario overnight, with a weak frontal boundary over NE ND. Impacts are not expected today or Monday in the wake of a weak cold front.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 70 82 69 / 70 80 90 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 70 81 68 / 70 70 80 20 Oak Ridge, TN 81 70 81 66 / 70 60 80 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 68 78 65 / 70 60 90 30.
438 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 High pressure across the Great Lakes will persist into tonight. A cold front will cross the area on Tuesday night, reinforcing the cooler, dry conditions. Temperatures will be below normal with highs from the mid 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast. A wedge of high pressure remains across the area tonight offering mostly clear sky conditions and light winds. As the mid level trof sharpens up on Tuesday the area remains between systems. Have introduced this chance into the grids and will continue to monitor as we move into reach of the high- resolution models.
All convection should end during the evening as ridging builds across the area and moisture gets pushed away to the east.
Surface analysis indicates a weak trough axis over the Red River Valley stretching into central Canada.
Overall dry weather expected for the short term with high confidence on cooler temperatures for Monday. Northwest flow continues over the Northern Plains with a ridge to our west and a trough to the east. A few light showers/virga were noted across the Mobridge area this morning. Cape values per HREF/Mesoanalysis are around ~1000-1500 J/KG as warm southerly flow continues and dew point values in the upper 50s to the lower-mid 60s. However, there is lots of dry air in place in the lower half of atmosphere and CINH. Otherwise, dry weather expected Monday through early Tuesday due to high pressure over the area. Overnight lows will range in the upper 50s to the lower 60s and with CAA in place for Monday, highs will be cooler than today, ranging in the lower to mid 80s.
Cooler than normal temperatures continue into midweek. This should help to clear out the lower clouds today eventually bringing more sunshine. Highs today should reach the low to mid 80s. Highs on Tuesday should climb back into the mid 80s to around 90, with lows Tuesday night in the low to mid 60s.
Despite the cool start to the day, low level thermal recovery and full sun will add several degrees onto daytime highs compared to yesterday; mid to upper 70s with cooler readings near Lake Huron. This combined with the low humidity will result in pleasant conditions across Se Mi today. A respectable amplification in mid level troughing across Lower Mi is forecast on Tuesday as an upper jet streak dives into the western Great Lakes from Manitoba. Increasing system relative isentropic ascent in advance of the trough will support increasing shower chances across northern Michigan late Tues morning into the afternoon, with some of these showers likely brushing the Saginaw Valley and thumb. Shallow post frontal cold air advection with some influence off the Great Lakes will moisten the low level per model soundings, resulting in ample low clouds.
(Today) Temperatures are running 5 to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago at this time.
Tuesday is looking a bit dicier as trend in guidance has been toward a slightly more amplified and sharper mid-upper level trough. Majority of guidance now has narrow ribbon of 60 degree dewpoints pooling along and ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the area mid afternoon through early evening. If instability ends up on the higher end of the guidance spectrum, wouldn't rule out a couple strong to severe thunderstorms.
338 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 High pressure wobbles from the central Great Lakes today to northern Ohio Tuesday.
1021 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 (This evening through Monday) With the cold front well into northern and central Texas, cooler temperatures continue to prevail across Oklahoma and western northern Texas.
A weak disturbance aloft is located over the lower Mississippi Valley this morning, which will provide support for additional shower and storms chances across much of the Deep South. Here in KY, we will likely be on the northern extent of the high PWAT plume, and should see some scattered showers mainly across south-central KY and especially the Lake Cumberland region. Sfc winds will be from the northeast again today, so the cold air advective pattern will help keep temps in the lower 80s this afternoon. Cloud cover will result in warmer temps across the southern half of the CWA, with mid to upper 60s overnight.
Temperatures today and Tuesday will remain mild, with highs in the low to mid 80s. (Tuesday Night through next Monday) An upper trough axis and reinforcing push of cooler air will pass through the midstate Tuesday night, finally forcing moisture to move east.
Storms are expected to lose their steam around sunset, but a few showers will linger into the overnight hours on the high terrain of the Divide. A sharp moisture gradient to our west begins to shift east and is expected to dry the lower atmosphere out some Monday. The approaching Pacific Northwest low amplifies the ridge of high pressure over the Rockies Monday night and is expected to put the breaks on any remaining storm activity. The northern stream jet will be buckling in the high latitudes by early Tuesday which will push the stalled EPac low onshore in the PacNW.
As of 230am, temperatures across the area are in the low-mid 60s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60. The area will remain between the upper trough over eastern Canada and the upper ridge over the Rockies. High pressure will settle into the area tonight, before a weak cold front drops south across the area on Tuesday morning and rotates winds to the northeast. The near surface smoke output does increase on Tuesday behind the cold front, so will need to watch if that trend continues and potentially add smoke wording to the forecast in future shifts.
(Today and tonight) With the upper ridge continuing, at least in the short term to retrograde westward, northerly mid-level flow and north surface winds will aid in keeping temperatures cooler today as well as helping to bring in some drier air. The impact of the lower dewpoints, along with clear skies, will really be felt tonight as it will allow temperatures to fall, in some cases, down into the upper 50s for overnight lows.
Additional convection is expected to develop on the higher terrain of southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico this afternoon and early evening.
Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected Today across the forecast area with upper ridging building just E of FL.
At least cooler high temps in the lower half of the 80s will be a respite even there. Tds draw down into the lower 60s over all but the far southeast (just a few degrees warmer there) by Tuesday, and we may even see some upper 50s in our farthest northeast counties.
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered from the Upper Mississippi Valley thru the entire Great Lakes region into SW Quebec early this morning. as an upper level trough axis and resulting cold front drop into the Western Great Lakes region in its wake. with some increase in cloud cover across Eastern Upper Michigan later this afternoon in advance of that approaching upper trough and cold front. Short term and higher resolution guidance is in very good agreement that a trough and associated surface cold front will lead to lingering showers and embedded thunder Tuesday (especially across north central and northeast lower).
1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (The rest of tonight) The upper ridge of high pressure had finally retreated back west into the Desert Southwest allowing for a break in the excessive heat for a few days! In response. northerly winds this evening were transporting a cooler/drier airmass into Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. with dewpoint running about 4 to 12 degrees cooler compared to 24-hrs ago behind the now departed cold front.
Temperatures shortly before sunrise ranged from the lower to middle 40s north and in the 50s south. The rain associated with the cold front will exit the area around 12z. Surface to 850 mb temperature differences over the bay may reach 10C to 13C as there will be much cooler air aloft. The cool air moving over the relative warmer waters of Lake Superior and then over the Bay of Green Bay could result in showers lingering into the mid to late afternoon hours across eastern Wisconsin.
No changes needed to the forecast this evening as high pressure builds in from the north. The center of the high should remain to our north, and MSLP gradient induced winds are expected to continue across the region overnight. Northeast winds around the high will continue to bring drier air and cooler in. Some northern locales will approach 50 degrees while southwestern sections may only hit the lower 60s. Normal afternoon highs for late August are in the lower and mid 80s.
256 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 - Sunny and pleasant Today - Clear and mild Tonight Surface analysis early this morning shows a broad area of high pressure stretching from the St. Aloft water vapor showed ridging in place over the Rockies, with subsequent NW flow streaming from central Canada, across the upper midwest to the Ohio Valley. 850mb temps appear slightly warmer today.
A 500 mb subtropical high parked across the desert southwest will be just south of an increasingly onshore trough moving across the Pacific Northwest early this week. The previously mentioned jet washes out quickly by Tuesday/Tuesday night as Canadian/ECMWF and GFS models all display a SW-NE oriented upper ridge bringing in strong subsidence and increasingly hotter temperatures from midweek onward. Models have all the upper jet energy (westerlies) oriented from southwest to northeast across the northern Rockies, while a 30 deg C 850 mb airmass gradually presses from the higher terrain into the lower plains.
1120 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 There is a trough over eastern Canada into the Great Lakes with high pressure over the Mountain West into the Plains. Highlights: Temperatures near normal (around 90 degrees) & dry Changes: Adjusted dewpoints tonight into Monday High pressure is anticipated to stay in place with the trough over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes.
In addition, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible within the forecast area due to an upper level low.
Our only decent chance of rain for the period looks to arrive this afternoon as a trough and upstream jetstreak from central Canada push south. One or two weak thunderstorms could also occur given the non-zero CAPE in forecast soundings from surface temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s.
19Z water vapor imagery showed a closed low off the OR coast with broad ridging over the southwestern U. Surface obs show high pressure centered over the upper midwest with ridging into western KS. After Tuesday there is good agreement and consistency in a mid level ridge developing over the central plains.
104 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 High pressure wobbles from the central Great Lakes today to northern Ohio Tuesday.
140 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Aviation High pressure remains firmly in control of the Great Lakes area weather tonight. Dew points are generally in the low 50s across Southwest Lower Michigan this evening, which is rather dry for even late August. The dry air and light winds provided by the high will allow for readings to drop to lows in the middle 40s to around 50 degrees. As temperatures dip to the current dew points and below we should see some shallow fog develop, especially late when winds dip to below 6 mph in the lowest 1000 feet. - Cool temperatures again tonight An area of high pressure over Northern Lower MI slips slowly south through the night. The latest HRRR, RAP and NAM show the low level moist ridge arriving mainly after 06z Tue along with weak instability.
1037 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Trough moves through Ontario overnight, with a weak frontal boundary over NE ND. Impacts are not expected today or Monday in the wake of a weak cold front.
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Lower Keys and its nearshore waters as well as the Straits of Florida from the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal. Now, the presence of dry air in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere is currently inhibiting the formation of showers in the vicinity of the island chain this evening. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the nearshore waters of the Lower Keys and the Straits of Florida from the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal. Boaters underneath the lower fixed bridges should expect much less clearance, especially during the morning high tide cycles. Ridging over the Southeast will continue to weaken through tonight, as a trough digs over the Eastern Seaboard and the Western Atlantic waters.
(Today through Tuesday) The most recent surface analysis indicated a cold front draped across South Texas from roughly Lake Jackson to Three Rivers to Eagle Pass. Regardless, this weak cold front, combined with a brief burst of deeper tropical moisture, will generate isolated convection today and tonight, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Opted to tamp down highs into the low 100s today, aided by soils wetted from recent Tropical Storm Harold rains. Highs in the low 100s for Tuesday looked reasonable, and opted not to adjust these at all.
Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated through tonight as aforementioned high pressure remains overhead. Lots of low 40s to low 50s again tonight, but a repeat of a few interior/cooler locations in the mid-upper 30s appears likely. High pressure returns midweek across the western Great Lakes. Sun-filled skies for much of the day Monday, although a slight uptick in high clouds may arrive toward sunset across far northwestern reaches of the forecast area in advance of the aforementioned mid-level wave and attendant cold front set to cross the area very late Monday night into Tuesday.
The fog follows a standard dissipation trend through mid morning leaving the continued influence of high pressure for the afternoon. Cooler but pleasant day so far as high pressure centered over northern WI/UP continues to govern local conditions.
(Today and tonight) A weak trough of low pressure over the area will provide a better than normal chance of convection today and tonight.
1249 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) A cold front has pushed just south of the state with high pressure situated across the southwest US.
908 PM PDT Sun Aug 27 2023 High pressure aloft will bring hot weather across inland Southern California through midweek.
618 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (Today) Temperatures are running 5 to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago at this time.
This is all due to an upper level high pressure system that is located across the southern portions of California this morning. Another feature of interest is the closed upper low off to the north, west of the Pacific Northwest states. For today, the upper ridge will bring quiet and dry weather to the entire forecast area. For Tuesday and Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper trough is expected to push eastward across the Pacific Northwest states during this time period. This will squeeze the upper ridge southward, and as a result, breezy to windy conditions will develop. Highs will be in the low to upper 80s.
917 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 High pressure weakens as it moves in from the central Great Lakes today to northern Ohio through Tuesday.
624 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (Today through Tuesday Night ) Quiet and cooler conditions had returned to the Natural State in the wake of a frontal boundary. Highs today should range from the lower 80s to to around 90 degrees. Aloft, the ridge responsible for the recent bout of heat will be located over invof Four Corners region with a broad ridge over the OH Valley into New England.
704 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 High pressure wobbles from the central Great Lakes today to northern Ohio Tuesday.
608 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (Today and tonight) With the upper ridge continuing, at least in the short term to retrograde westward, northerly mid-level flow and north surface winds will aid in keeping temperatures cooler today as well as helping to bring in some drier air. The impact of the lower dewpoints, along with clear skies, will really be felt tonight as it will allow temperatures to fall, in some cases, down into the upper 50s for overnight lows.
The Keys are situated within the far north northeastern flank of a sprawling area of low pressure seated just east of the Yucatan Peninsula. At the core of this low pressure region is strengthening Tropical Storm Idalia, which continues to show little motion. That said, Idalia is expected to become quite sizable and there is a reasonable probability that winds may approach minimal Tropical Storm intensity early Tuesday, particularly in the Lower Keys and Dry Tortugas. As a result, a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Lower Keys and surrounding waters, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in place for the Dry Tortugas and surrounding waters. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the waters adjacent to the Dry Tortugas, while a Watch is in effect for waters surrounding the Lower Keys.
Attention then turns to a cold front associated with low pressure currently over northern MN. The low is expected to move across northern WI this evening and overnight into Tuesday, with the cold front moving across our area between 10pm and 10am. There has been a trend in the GFS and Euro to keep the majority of of precipitation across northeastern WI closer to the low and better upper level forcing, keeping much of southern WI dry as the front moves through.
In the lower levels, we currently have a stationary boundary fairly close to the I85 corridor. In addition to that, ahead of storms, the SRN counties will still have warmer and muggy conditions that will warrant one more day of a heat advisory needed.
635 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (Today and tonight) Temperatures will generally be cooler for most of the area today.
737 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Aviation Forecast concerns deal with a cold front moving through the cwa Tuesday.
(Today and tonight) Temperatures will generally be cooler for most of the area today.
(Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible today Radar and surface analysis this morning reveals a cold front draped just about midway across the region. A slight surge of high pressure this afternoon will help encourage low level convergence across the Coastal Plains which may be enough to squeeze out a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. Highs tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler as drier air works into the region.
616 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (Today through Tuesday) The most recent surface analysis indicated a cold front draped across South Texas from roughly Lake Jackson to Three Rivers to Eagle Pass. Regardless, this weak cold front, combined with a brief burst of deeper tropical moisture, will generate isolated convection today and tonight, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Opted to tamp down highs into the low 100s today, aided by soils wetted from recent Tropical Storm Harold rains. Highs in the low 100s for Tuesday looked reasonable, and opted not to adjust these at all.
- Sunny and pleasant Today - Clear and mild Tonight Surface analysis early this morning shows a broad area of high pressure stretching from the St. Aloft water vapor showed ridging in place over the Rockies, with subsequent NW flow streaming from central Canada, across the upper midwest to the Ohio Valley. 850mb temps appear slightly warmer today.
628 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 High pressure across the Great Lakes will persist into tonight. A cold front will cross the area on Tuesday night, reinforcing the cooler, dry conditions. Temperatures will be below normal with highs from the mid 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast. A wedge of high pressure remains across the area tonight offering mostly clear sky conditions and light winds. As the mid level trof sharpens up on Tuesday the area remains between systems. Have introduced this chance into the grids and will continue to monitor as we move into reach of the high- resolution models.
Temperatures are in check, rising into the mid 80s and on track to reach the low to mid 90s this afternoon.
Humidity levels will moderate this afternoon and evening, behind a reinforcing cold front.
High pressure will build overhead the next few days, which will push temperatures back to near record levels today and Tuesday.
303 AM MDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Most recent water vapor and upper air models continue to show the upper high sitting over southwestern CONUS and an upper low over northwestern Montana, with northwest flow aloft our region. A bit of a warming trend and dry conditions are expected the first half of the work week as the ridge stays in place over the western US.
624 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible today Radar and surface analysis this morning reveals a cold front draped just about midway across the region. A slight surge of high pressure this afternoon will help encourage low level convergence across the Coastal Plains which may be enough to squeeze out a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. Highs tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler as drier air works into the region.
Monsoon moisture brings a return of more widespread storms and cooler weather for the second half of the week. A strong ridge was located across the southwest US this morning, centered near southern California. Some northerly flow in the lower levels will also tend to dry out our air mass leading to a downturn in thunderstorm coverage.
This lowered "feels- like" temperatures slightly, but they will still top out around 105.
240 AM PDT Mon Aug 28 2023 An area of high pressure elongated over the Southwestern U.