Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
100 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 High pressure conditions remain in effect through the rest of today and on into tonight with partly cloudy skies, dry weather, and northwesterly winds. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 50s for inland most inland areas and in the lower 60s for north central Florida and for areas along the coast.
A warm front, currently located in southern AL/MS will begin to lift northeastward during the day today allowing for moisture advection to increase dewpoints into the lower 60s by this evening.
426 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 A cold front sags southeast into the area later today, resulting in a large temperature differential from north to south.
355 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 A warm front will lift across the upper Ohio Valley today with a chance of showers.
419 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 High pressure and drier air will remain over the region tonight with an upper level disturbance moving into the region this morning, increasing chances of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Flow will veer SE by morning as a surface warm front begins to contract over central Illinois ahead of a high-amplitude wave entering the central CONUS. A very low strong storm risk exists close to the warm front in the far southern CWA in the late afternoon.
Large trough moves through the region over the next couple days, closing off into an upper level Low over Wyoming which in turn will spin up a Colorado Low.
With the rain and associated cloud cover quickly exiting later today, our western counties should warm up nicely into the upper 60s and low 70s, while the east will stay cloudy and rainy longer with highs only in the low to mid 60s. Warm front will begin moving northward through Middle Tennessee tonight into Tuesday morning with dewpoints rising into the 60s.
Northern Missouri will see much cooler temperatures which will struggle to make it out of the 50s. Large scale troughing will roll off the Rockies early on Tuesday and and push toward the area.
Scattered light showers mostly offshore this morning with a few skirting the coast and the higher terrain of Monterey county. Gusts in excess of 45 mph will likely be confined to the coastal areas, the crest of the Santa Cruz mtns, East Bay hills, and the higher terrain of Monterey and San Benito counties.
624 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023 (Today) Unseasonably warm conditions expected today with highs in the lower to mid 80s across most of E OK/NW AR.
At the surface, a warm front draped across mid Mississippi and southern Alabama will gradually lift northward throughout the day. With a stubborn low level inversion and cloud deck in place, our high temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 60s with perhaps some areas in northwest AL peaking in the low 70s.
729 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 A warm front will lift across the upper Ohio Valley today with a chance of showers.
408 AM MDT Mon Apr 3 2023 A closed low pressure circulation tracking from central Idaho to the Tetons of Wyoming through Tuesday will bring snowy conditions to north central Idaho and over mountain passes along the Idaho-Montana border.
The current trough that is supporting the active weather is forecast to exit east and amplify across the Great Basin. However, steep lapse rates will still exist in the wake of the trough, particularly during peak afternoon heating, which will favor diurnally driven showers across the inland ridges and mountains later today.
656 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023 For early morning update main change was to add a little freezing drizzle to portions of north central and northwest North Dakota as some reports came in of freezing drizzle already occurring in the Max area. Upper level analysis places trough over the western CONUS (which will become tomorrow's problem for us) with a compact low over northern Minnesota. So, one would think that this automatically would mean heavier snow farther west, but a fly in the ointment is the high settling in on the back side of this system, which could limit snowfall on the northwestern end.
623 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 A cold front sags southeast into the area later today, resulting in a large temperature differential from north to south.
Mean-layer ridging remains across Central America and the Caribbean, although its northern periphery is flattened by the zonal westerlies over the CONUS. A narrow low-level ridge axis extends west-northwest through the Bahamas, while an anticyclone has emerged into the North Atlantic east of the Eastern Seaboard. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints are near or just above 70. Breezes will freshen across the Keys today through Tuesday as a high pressure system matures over the western North Atlantic.
Predawn temps ranged fm the mid 50s to the lower 60s.
Upper level analysis places trough over the western CONUS (which will become tomorrow's problem for us) with a compact low over northern Minnesota. So, one would think that this automatically would mean heavier snow farther west, but a fly in the ointment is the high settling in on the back side of this system, which could limit snowfall on the northwestern end.
Gusts up to 35 mph will be possible in the highest peaks and adjacent foothills but winds are expected to stay below advisory criteria.
Strong winds are expected today along with cooler temperatures. As a result, the High Wind Warning for areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim to the Utah border remains in effect today beginning at 8 AM MST/9 AM MDT and lasting through 11 PM MST/midnight MDT. By late afternoon/evening on Tuesday, winds will revert to mostly light and variable with the exit of the low-pressure system. Immediately following the passage of this low-pressure system, temperatures will drop by 10 to 15 degrees on Tuesday compared to Monday. As mentioned in the previous discussions, there is still good agreement between models on an incoming ridge to build over the Southwest and bring spring-like conditions to northern Arizona. Only new item to note is the possibility of this ridge being short-lived by following storm systems.
Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s inland while the onshore flow will keep coastal areas in the lower to middle 80s. should begin to lift northeast on Tuesday, while the mid-level high pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico stretches and lifts northward. The ridge axis will become centered over the Florida Peninsula through late week keeping rain free conditions.
1035 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 A warm front will cross the upper Ohio Valley today with a chance of showers.
A deeper trough digging over the Four Corners tonight will induce lee cyclogenesis in Colorado. As a result, dew points climb into the low to mid 60s and winds shift to southerly.
As we move into Tuesday, temperatures will continue to be hot with a mostly dry and sunny day across South Florida as high pressure will dominate the weather pattern.
Widespread gusty winds expected to continue into Tuesday with sharply colder temperatures as a cold front drops through the region.
Upper level ridging will build over the Florida peninsula through the week with fair and mainly dry conditions across the region.
(Through Tuesday) A large cluster of thunderstorms is tracking along a warm front draped along the FLorida/Georgia border as of 19Z and additional severe weather is not anticipated one this moves east of the forecast area into a more stable air mass.
210 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 A chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday night as a warm front lifts north through the Ohio Valley.
352 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023 Tonight and Tuesday: A warm front will move northward this evening into tonight and our area will be well within a large warm sector associated with a low pressure system centered over the Rockies. Additionally, an upper ridge builds in overnight. Moisture advection along with the ridge axis and mid to upper level jet to the west should keep some clouds around on Tuesday.
Cooler air will move into the area tonight and Tuesday. On Tuesday, winds will be out of the northwest with much cooler and drier air moving in. Graham and Greenlee counties will see winds near advisory levels but perhaps more impactful will be the low humidities and strong winds which will once again prompt a Red Flag Warning for those areas along with Eastern Cochise County. All locales in these counties may not quite reach the freezing mark, and for those that do, the duration of subfreezing temperatures may only be for an hour or two.
A significant broad trough of low pressure is currently over the western United States. The biggest impacts will be over the Great Basin moving up into the Northern High Plains over the next couple of days, while the Northern Rockies will be dealing with weak embedded disturbances within the overall trough. This shower activity should break up during the evening with the snow being mainly confined to the higher terrain of north central Idaho. Models are indicating that the Camas Prairie, especially around Grangeville, could receive up to 2 inches of snow tonight into Tuesday morning, while the higher terrain in Idaho county could see 3 to 9 inches by Tuesday afternoon.
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will allow for high temperatures in the low 90s.
212 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 A cold front sags southeast into the area later today, resulting in a large temperature differential from north to south.
300 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 A warm front will cross the upper Ohio Valley today with a chance of showers.
1035 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023 A marine airmass has once again overspread the Midsouth as a warm front lifts through the region.
The broad midlevel trough continues to dive southeast into the Great Basin, pumping ample moisture into the state. The trough will gradually shift east during the night tonight, right along the WY/CO border.
The low temperatures tonight will be in the low 70s areawide. Winds will be around 10-15 mph with a few higher gusts as a 40-50KT 850MB jet moves overhead and will strengthen on Tuesday as local pressure gradient tightens in response to an approaching cold front. There is a very small chance light rain can occur once very moist air in the mid levels and weak upper level disturbances rounding the base of an upper level trough that is to progress into the Great Plains move overhead.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) Above normal conditions across the region this afternoon, as gusty south winds have allowed temps to warm into the low to mid 80s so far, despite lingering cloud cover from this morning.
The cold front has pushed through the area and is expected to stall this evening from northern Missouri into central Illinois.
1255 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023 A marine airmass has once again overspread the Midsouth as a warm front lifts through the region.
119 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 A warm front will cross the upper Ohio Valley today with a chance of showers.
Relatively weak ridging along the CONUS east coast and western Atlantic is maintaining moderate to gentle southeasterly flow over the Florida Keys and coastal waters. Over the next few days, high pressure will remain parked over the Western Atlantic just off the Eastern Seaboard. However, as a high amplitude trough swings through the western states heading across the norther tier of the country a surface front will push towards the southeastern states. The combination of a trough approaching GOMEX, and a building ridge along the Eastern Seaboard, will tighten the pressure gradient over the area.
This will set up a dry night and a warm Tuesday as SSE winds will turn to the south advecting a warmer air mass.
258 PM MDT Mon Apr 3 2023 AFTERNOON UPDATE: The previous Winter Weather Advisory was allowed to expire at noon as expected, with almost all snow shower activity ending and road temperatures warming well above freezing.
High pressure will build to the east northeast through the day on Tuesday.
A ridge will build into the Southeast tomorrow bringing dry weather. With sunny skies and southerly low level flow (WAA) across the region, temps will be much warmer with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s in the TN Valley.
(This evening through Tuesday) Not a lot to say this afternoon as a high wind and fire weather event remains on track for Tuesday courtesy a broad and deep upper low that will move from the Colorado/Wyoming Rockies to the Dakotas during the day with a strong pressure/height fall response as well as efficient mixing that will send 50-70 kt mid level flow toward the surface.
(This evening through Tuesday) Almost summer-like out there this afternoon with temperatures climbing well into the low/mid 90s across the area. Upper level trough pushing into the Central Plains, with strong west to southwest winds developing across the area on Tuesday.
Initially broad upr ridge over the gulf will amplify while becoming the primary feature into mid-week.
(Tonight) A warm front has become stationary this evening and has since been lingering in central Alabama-- allowing precipitation to remain south of our forecast area. Otherwise, low temperatures will dip into the mid 50s to mid 60s (remaining warmer closer to the aforementioned front).
620 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Not a lot to say this afternoon as a high wind and fire weather event remains on track for Tuesday courtesy a broad and deep upper low that will move from the Colorado/Wyoming Rockies to the Dakotas during the day with a strong pressure/height fall response as well as efficient mixing that will send 50-70 kt mid level flow toward the surface.
608 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 Tuesday will be a dry weather day and a bit warmer.
728 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 A warm front will cross the upper Ohio Valley this evening with a chance of showers north of Pittsburgh.
611 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Almost summer-like out there this afternoon with temperatures climbing well into the low/mid 90s across the area. Upper level trough pushing into the Central Plains, with strong west to southwest winds developing across the area on Tuesday.
A large upper trough over the region will continue to support snow showers overnight through Tuesday, although the bulk of the activity will shift into southwest Idaho as the trough moves eastward. The Western Magic Valley is still on track to receive snowfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, and areas along the Nevada border will see even greater amounts due to upslope enhancement over the higher terrain.
901 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 Tuesday will be a dry weather day and a bit warmer.
-Enriquez PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: The previous Winter Weather Advisory was allowed to expire at noon as expected, with almost all snow shower activity ending and road temperatures warming well above freezing.
1055 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 A chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday night as a warm front lifts north through the Ohio Valley.
717 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023 Tonight and Tuesday: A warm front will move northward this evening into tonight and our area will be well within a large warm sector associated with a low pressure system centered over the Rockies. Additionally, an upper ridge builds in overnight. Moisture advection along with the ridge axis and mid to upper level jet to the west should keep some clouds around on Tuesday.
757 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 (Through Tuesday) A large cluster of thunderstorms is tracking along a warm front draped along the FLorida/Georgia border as of 19Z and additional severe weather is not anticipated one this moves east of the forecast area into a more stable air mass.
Warm front is lifting to the N this evening, currently situated into N MS & to the SE. Water vapor/RAP analysis indicates subtle mid-level ridging over the region while strong cold core & longwave trough digging into the Intermountain W & Pacific states. /DC/ Tonight and Tuesday: A warm front will move northward this evening into tonight and our area will be well within a large warm sector associated with a low pressure system centered over the Rockies. Additionally, an upper ridge builds in overnight. Moisture advection along with the ridge axis and mid to upper level jet to the west should keep some clouds around on Tuesday.
804 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 A chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday night as a warm front lifts north through the Ohio Valley.
Strong winds along with cooler temperatures will continue through this afternoon. Strong southwesterly winds will continue across northern Arizona through this evening ahead of an upper level trough entering the Great Basin. The next challenge will be rain/snow chances ahead of the trough axis as it pivots across northern Arizona tonight. Much colder air will then filter in behind the trough/cold front Tuesday, with high temperatures forecast to be 20 degrees below normal on Tuesday.
Meridional flow will bring a northerly regime of sub-advisory level winds and gusts under 25 kts at ridge level.
High pressure will build over the gulf waters with southeast flow through the week, except becoming onshore near the coast each afternoon due to the sea breeze.
706 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 Tuesday will be a dry weather day and a bit warmer.
555 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023 A warm front will cross the upper Ohio Valley this evening with a chance of showers north of Pittsburgh.
637 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Above normal conditions across the region this afternoon, as gusty south winds have allowed temps to warm into the low to mid 80s so far, despite lingering cloud cover from this morning.
345 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 Showers are likely today along a warm front lifting toward Lake Erie. Potent low pressure and a cold front will provide the focus for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.
(Today through Wednesday) Another hot afternoon across South Florida for today as high pressure begins to build across the region once again.
Low pressure over Colorado is presently producing heavy snow over much of western South Dakota with lighter returns approaching the ND/SD border. As the low approaches, winds up, and the pressure gradient tightens, expect strong winds to develop. With overcast skies, northerly winds, and snow expected, it's hard to see exactly where warmer air is going to come despite the season.
155 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 (Through Tuesday) A large cluster of thunderstorms is tracking along a warm front draped along the FLorida/Georgia border as of 19Z and additional severe weather is not anticipated one this moves east of the forecast area into a more stable air mass. (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 323 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 202 As a long wave trough deepens out west, a downstream ridge will build over the Southeast and it will get quite warm.
Zonal flow aloft is transitioning more southwesterly ahead of the digging trough across the western CONUS. Most of the high-resolution CAMs depict the dryline through most of the forecast area by mid-afternoon tomorrow; the HREF mean shows the dryline stretching from Hiawatha to Topeka to Burlington by 20z. Perhaps a better chance for storms comes during the evening as the cold front catches up to the dryline. Colder air builds in behind the cold front with breezy northwest winds keeping highs in the 50s on Wednesday.
We can expect plenty of sunshine today, which combined with the breezy southerly flow will push high temperatures well into the low to mid 80s.
1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Not a lot to say this afternoon as a high wind and fire weather event remains on track for Tuesday courtesy a broad and deep upper low that will move from the Colorado/Wyoming Rockies to the Dakotas during the day with a strong pressure/height fall response as well as efficient mixing that will send 50-70 kt mid level flow toward the surface.
Highs through the Valley are expected to reach the lower 80s. High clouds increase this evening as the upper ridge axis shifts east of our area and a 500 mb vort max moves overhead.
135 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 A chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday night as a warm front lifts north through the Ohio Valley. However, more widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday into Wednesday night as a cold front approaches from the west. Models show low level moisture increasing late tonight ahead of warm front lifting north into the Ohio Valley. The warm front will lift north across our area through the day on Tuesday. As we get into the afternoon, we should see a decreasing cloud trend from the south as the warm front lifts north. Temperatures will be mild Tuesday night with lows mainly in the low to mid 60s. A cold front associated with a strong low northwest of the region will progress through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday into Wednesday night.
The more significant threat for severe storms will come late tomorrow night as a cold front slides into the region.
1144 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023 (This evening through Tuesday) Almost summer-like out there this afternoon with temperatures climbing well into the low/mid 90s across the area. Upper level trough pushing into the Central Plains, with strong west to southwest winds developing across the area on Tuesday.
1114 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023 (Tonight) A warm front has become stationary this evening and has since been lingering in central Alabama-- allowing precipitation to remain south of our forecast area. Otherwise, low temperatures will dip into the mid 50s to mid 60s (remaining warmer closer to the aforementioned front).
253 AM MDT Tue Apr 4 2023 Deep upper trough and associated compact upper low and sfc reflection continues to move ENE into the region this morning, with a potent FGEN band in place across southwest to central SD. After continued below normal conds Thurs, much warmer temps will finally arrive this weekend as Pac westerly flow develops via large scale western CONUS ridging.
/44/ (This evening through Tuesday Night) Above normal conditions across the region this afternoon, as gusty south winds have allowed temps to warm into the low to mid 80s so far, despite lingering cloud cover from this morning. As the aforementioned upper trough and cold front approaches, showers and thunderstorms will rapidly develop across North Texas, Eastern Oklahoma, and adjacent Southwestern Arkansas.
257 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023 Warm front extended from central MO to central IL with temps well in the 60s and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s south of the front. Be Weather Aware! Today and tonight: Volatile and dangerous day ahead with an intense cyclone tracking from CO to se MN. The warm front will lift northward across the cwa which will be key to the location of the strongest tornadoes. Afternoon temps will range from the lower 60s along Hwy 20 to the lower to mid 80s in our southern counties.
There remains a low chance for isolated severe storms to develop this afternoon, but the more likely scenario will be the potential for a few discrete storms during the evening hours as the low level jet begins to rapidly increase.
There is a chance for strong storms Wednesday evening and night with an approaching cold front. The upper ridge axis shifts ewd tonight, and swly flow/low- level warm advection will support greater convective potential on Wed. Steep mid-level lapse rates and increasing forcing for ascent favor a squall line along an advancing cold front from the Midwest during the afternoon to wrn PA overnight. An overnight threat with the advancing squall line/cold front may persist long enough to affect at least ern OH if not wrn PA, but unfavorable timing may limit the storms' impacts/intensity.
358 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 An upper level ridge will build over the region through Wednesday and support an increasingly warm and humid air mass.