Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Forecast: Cold front continues to push well into Florida and the Gulf of Mexico bringing cool, dry air mass into the CWA. Best surge of the airmass will be tonight bringing temps well into the 50s (and maybe a few 40s into the higher elevations). Aloft, sharp trough across the northeast will continue to become more negatively tilted and vertically stacked with coastal low through tonight into tomorrow.
Warm but dry as the deep upper trough slowly pushes east across the Great Lakes and into the northeast. The best part will be the lower dewpoints with current dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s and this is expected to continue.
Surface dewpoints are also a bit on the lower side with lower 50s across SW Mississippi and middle to upper 60s closer to the warmer bodies of water. Today will be very similar to yesterday in terms of low RH values and temperatures warming back into the lower to middle 90s with strong low level heating taking place.
High pressure will bring dry weather and comfortable temperatures to the Mid-South through the middle of the week.
226 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Upper level trough moves through early today. High pressure Monday night through the end of the work week. A weak surface boundary accompanying a departing upper level trough swings through the area into late this evening. Outside of faint radar returns currently on radar, should only see the passing afternoon cu field and isolated light rain showers as the main features of note before high pressure arrives late tonight. High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will remain in place through the mid-week time frame, keeping conditions dry across the area.
158 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 It will be warmer today with a few rain showers over the northern tier this afternoon.
Warmer than average conditions continue into mid week. Went a bit more mild with the lows tonight, based on how warm (relatively) most places stayed last night into this morning and with warm air aloft. Could certainly see some sites cooler than forecast if winds are lighter and/or clouds are less prevalent than expected.
1133 AM MDT Mon Sep 18 2023 An approaching jet streak and collapsing ridge will come into play for the early week forecast. The jet streak hangs around Tuesday keeping the West Slope in the broad shallow ridge for another day. Meanwhile, the closed low off the California coast moves ashore near Point Conception by 12Z/Wed.
Cloud cover will be limited and aid in radiational cooling, resulting in low temperatures dipping into the lower to mid 50s for most locations.
145 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 1) Showers and an isolated storm tonight into early Tuesday morning 2) Warmer Tuesday with isolated PM rain showers north Broad high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes into the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys will keep our weather dry and cool through this evening. Regarding rainfall amounts, NBM probabilities favor generally around a tenth to a quarter of an inch (~50-80%), with higher amounts trending to the Highway 20 corridor. Temperatures will be warmer with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with higher values favored across southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. With flow generally out of the south in the low-levels, warmer temperatures and moisture will help keep at least a slight chance of a rain shower or storm going each day.
The steadier rain associated with the low will exit western New England as we head through the afternoon into the evening as the coastal low tracks to the east end of Long Island and southeastern New England. The low will move up the New England coast tonight. The chances for showers will continue across the local area tonight, especially this evening, as a upper level low associated with a northern stream short wave crosses the region. Chances for showers will decrease overnight and become limted to the higher terrain mainly northwest of the Capital District. Muggy with lows in the lower to mid 50s below 1500 feet and in the upper 40s above that. The upper level low will move northeastward Tuesday with heights beginning to rise across the region during the afternoon.
Dry tonight and Tuesday with high pressure across the region. Dry weather is expected tonight and on Tuesday as high pressure remains in control of the area.
The aforementioned ridge will continue to build across TX/north MX AS it slowly moves eastward on Tuesday. Overall, expect a similar day as today with highs climbing into the low to mid 90s under mostly sunny skies.
Inbound high pressure and departing low pressure will maintain northwest winds to around 10 knots through the remainder of the afternoon and also bring a cloud clearing trend this evening into tonight. Southeast Michigan now within the immediate wake of a high amplitude mid level trough axis, leaving deeper layer north-northwest flow to govern conditions to start the work week. Deep layer stability held within confluent mid level northwest flow atop surface ridging ensures benign conditions with a high degree of early day insolation potential Tuesday.
The cooler temperatures should help the humidity recover some and end the critical fire weather danger so no plans at this time to extend the Red Flag Warning out any further.
Temperatures will remain below normal through the week as a series of low pressure systems move through.
This is as a low- and mid-level trough remains draped over the Florida Peninsula. KBYX radar is detecting isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms dotting the marine zones and island chain, with the greatest coverage and intensity currently in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys. Given the lack of mean ridging, aforementioned moisture, and generally confluent flow, approximate 30% PoPs still seems appropriate for the balance of today. From synopsis, weak high pressure across the Florida Keys will maintain light to gentle westerly breezes through this evening.
Because, over the next several days we will transition into a cooler and wetter pattern. A cold front and upper level low will move toward the Pacific Northwest out of Canada, enhancing southwest flow across the area.
(Tuesday through Monday) A several day period of active weather will begin on Tuesday as a deep trough/upper low develops over the western CONUS.
353 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Northerly low level flow between weather systems is bringing in a cooler air mass but still with enough moisture for scattered showers this afternoon. High pressure starts the day overhead with some perishable patches of low clouds possible. These larger scale features are initialized well in today's model runs with good agreement on the general area for shower/storm development where the low level jet and moisture transport peak in the northern Plains and Midwest tonight.
235 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Showers and thunderstorms continue to bubble up across western WY this afternoon on the leading edge of the approaching longwave trough.
316 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 It will be warmer today with a few rain showers over the northern tier this afternoon.
For the remainder of the afternoon until late evening, expect isolated to scattered storms to spread over all of the higher terrain, and a couple weakening cells could produce a period of gusty outflows as they move through the I-25 corridor before dissipating on the plains.
Large scale lift will generally be absent outside of low level convergence within the surface pressure trough. A strong upper level jet streak on the order of 105kt will be moving over top the ridge located to the south of the area.
1220 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 As a cold front pushes offshore this morning, high pressure will rebuild over the area through much of the upcoming week. Coastal low pressure could affect the region late week into the weekend. Dry high pressure will be the main feature at the surface today, while broad troughing prevails aloft. High temperatures are forecast to reach into the low to mid 80s across the forecast area. Tonight: High pressure will prevail with only a few thin cirrus passing through overnight.
1000 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Better clearing of the low clouds will occur today and Tuesday under a deep but weakening marine layer. This will result in slightly warmer weather as well.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Diurnal convection continued to form in the higher terrain of region. Somewhat more stable conditions are forecast for the mid week, as weak high pressure builds over the region.
143 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Dry high pressure will dominate our weather through the work week.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Pleasant weather is expected through the short term period as high pressure builds over the eastern CONUS.
119 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Water vapor shows upper high over the north-central CONUS and south-central Canada, with weak upper trof over the Pac NW and stronger trof/low over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, trof is located over the central Dakotas, with early afternoon highs well into the 80s and lower 90s most locations. Upper trof over the Pac NW will advance eastward tonight and Tuesday and weaken, with weak cold front moving through our region. Temps will be wider ranging on Tuesday with the passage of the cold front, from the mid 70s in northeast WY to around 90 in south-central SD.
236 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 High pressure continues to build in the wake of the frontal passage this past weekend.
A north-south oriented warm front positioned across the western Dakotas is working its way east over the region. By the end of daytime heating, some portions along and west of the Missouri River valley could be staring at readings in the low 90s.
337 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Isolated rain showers will linger today as a low pressure system advances east. Seasonable to above average temperatures will return mid-week with building high pressure.
326 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 An extended stretch of dry weather with a slight warming trend is forecast for the rest of the week thanks to high pressure settling in for a while. A low pressure system is forecast to form near the southeastern coast of the U. 5H trough axis well to the east Tues, and morning clouds will mostly go away. Maxes should be extremely similar to Mon despite slightly cooler despite cool advection that brings the 8H temps ~2C cooler since we won't mix that high (only to about 3. High pressure takes control in the night, dropping the wind off, and allowing mins around 40F in the far N.
The Florida Keys remain in a region of general low- and mid- level troughiness, as a frontal boundary remains draped across the Florida Mainland.
438 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 An extended stretch of dry weather with a slight warming trend is forecast for the rest of the week thanks to high pressure settling in for a while. A low pressure system is forecast to form near the southeastern coast of the U. 5H trough axis well to the east Tues, and morning clouds will mostly go away. Maxes should be extremely similar to Mon despite slightly cooler despite cool advection that brings the 8H temps ~2C cooler since we won't mix that high (only to about 3. High pressure takes control in the night, dropping the wind off, and allowing mins around 40F in the far N.
Temperatures: Warmer temperatures will be invading the region over the next 24 hours. Good mixing and warmer temps aloft should result in highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Tuesday. Precipitation chances will initially revolve around a warm frontal passage during the mid-week period, though a building upper ridge over the western Great Lakes should limit coverage to isolated/ scattered.
101 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Cooler conditions prevail today due to onshore flow from a meandering system to our west.
Elsewhere, cooler temperatures and intermittent cloud cover will be the extent of the weather for today.
Surface ridging will continue to spread into the CWA from the northwest today. /22/ Today and Tonight: In the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage, northerly flow has continued to advect drier air into the region. Given the high pressure, dry air, and mostly clear skies, also nudged overnight lows slightly cooler toward MOS values tonight. Hi-res guidance continues to show the trough axis retreating east towards the Carolinas as the low pressure system tracks northeastward towards the upper east coast. Behind this retreating trough is a well-defined ridge axis that is expected to shift east across the Lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday morning. With the ridge axis upstream, winds will be somewhat westerly across the entire forecast area.
207 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Winds will gradually diminish overnight tonight as noticeably cooler air works its way into the area.
1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Surface ridging will continue to spread into the CWA from the northwest today. /22/ Today and Tonight: In the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage, northerly flow has continued to advect drier air into the region. Given the high pressure, dry air, and mostly clear skies, also nudged overnight lows slightly cooler toward MOS values tonight. Hi-res guidance continues to show the trough axis retreating east towards the Carolinas as the low pressure system tracks northeastward towards the upper east coast. Behind this retreating trough is a well-defined ridge axis that is expected to shift east across the Lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday morning. With the ridge axis upstream, winds will be somewhat westerly across the entire forecast area.
319 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 High pressure building in from the west persists through at least mid week with dry conditions and pleasant temperatures. A coastal low or coastal trough is forecast impact the area late in the week. Ridging will be the dominate feature early this week leading to a calm, clear, and dry couple of days.
Mid to upper level confluence tonight and Tuesday will then support weak surface ridging. Northerly low level flow between weather systems is bringing in a cooler air mass but still with enough moisture for scattered showers this afternoon. High pressure starts the day overhead with some perishable patches of low clouds possible. These larger scale features are initialized well in today's model runs with good agreement on the general area for shower/storm development where the low level jet and moisture transport peak in the northern Plains and Midwest tonight.
726 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 High pressure building in from the west persists through at least mid week with dry conditions and pleasant temperatures. A coastal low or coastal trough is forecast impact the area late in the week. Ridging will be the dominate feature early this week leading to a calm, clear, and dry couple of days.
816 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Building high pressure will provide dry conditions through the week and into the weekend. High pressure building across the Middle Ohio Valley will provide a cloud decrease overnight, along with light and variable wind. High pressure to our west with start to build and prompt westerly flow by late Tuesday afternoon. Sfc heating will be depended on cloud coverage and the timing of an exiting upper-lvl trough.
601 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 High pressure will bring dry weather and comfortable temperatures to the Mid-South through the middle of the week.
1030 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Slightly cooler air arriving behind a cold front will result in a few lake effect rain showers south and southeast of especially Lake Ontario tonight into Tuesday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will wane across much of western New York tonight with loss of diurnal instability, but chances will remain to the east and southeast of Lake Ontario closer to the slowing mid-level trough and where a supply of cooler air aloft provides a weak lake response. The mid-level trough will exit into New England Tuesday. Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week with high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s with some upper 50s for higher terrain. The coolest spots will likely see temperatures in the low 40s near 40F by daybreak.
High pressure over the area is providing clear skies and calm winds. Dry tonight and Tuesday with high pressure across the region. Dry weather is expected tonight and on Tuesday as high pressure remains in control of the area.
As ridging aloft advances east, the negative vorticity advection should suppress the remainder of the clouds and lead to clear skies tonight.
739 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 An extended stretch of dry weather with a slight warming trend is forecast for the rest of the week thanks to high pressure settling in for a while. A low pressure system is forecast to form near the southeastern coast of the U. 5H trough axis well to the east Tues, and morning clouds will mostly go away. Maxes should be extremely similar to Mon despite slightly cooler despite cool advection that brings the 8H temps ~2C cooler since we won't mix that high (only to about 3. High pressure takes control in the night, dropping the wind off, and allowing mins around 40F in the far N.
427 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Water vapor shows upper high over the north-central CONUS and south-central Canada, with weak upper trof over the Pac NW and stronger trof/low over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, trof is located over the central Dakotas, with early afternoon highs well into the 80s and lower 90s most locations. Upper trof over the Pac NW will advance eastward tonight and Tuesday and weaken, with weak cold front moving through our region. Temps will be wider ranging on Tuesday with the passage of the cold front, from the mid 70s in northeast WY to around 90 in south-central SD.
914 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Nearly zonal mid-level flow is producing high clouds into the western portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Current temperatures are in the low 60s to low 70s with mostly calm winds at the surface. Tonight's lows are expected to dip into the low to mid 50s across the region. AEH High pressure will bring dry weather and comfortable temperatures to the Mid-South through the middle of the week.
Surface winds should continue to slack and dew points again tell the tale of another cooler than average start. We can expect air temps down into the lower 60s by daybreak for most with a couple or few middle 60s.
352 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Showers and thunderstorms continue to bubble up across western WY this afternoon on the leading edge of the approaching longwave trough.
734 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Isolated rain showers will linger today as a low pressure system advances east. Seasonable to above average temperatures will return mid-week with building high pressure.
1011 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 High pressure will move east into the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight. The high will remain over the region on Tuesday. High pressure will settle into the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight. Expect Tuesday's highs to range from the lower 70s northeast to the mid/upper 70s southwest. Low temperatures are generally forecast in the lower and middle 50s.
Morning low temperatures will mostly range across the low 70s with mid 70s along the coast from Cape Canaveral southward.
Dewpoints are much drier than last night, indicating that lots of the low level moisture mixed out today. Auten This afternoon, a ridge of high pressure stretches from the lower and mid Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong mid level warm air advection will develop this evening and overnight upstream of the ridge axis on the nose of a strengthening low level jet.
1) Showers and an isolated storm tonight into early Tuesday morning 2) Warmer Tuesday with isolated PM rain showers north Broad high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes into the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys will keep our weather dry and cool through this evening. Regarding rainfall amounts, NBM probabilities favor generally around a tenth to a quarter of an inch (~50-80%), with higher amounts trending to the Highway 20 corridor. Temperatures will be warmer with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with higher values favored across southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. With flow generally out of the south in the low-levels, warmer temperatures and moisture will help keep at least a slight chance of a rain shower or storm going each day.
Bowlan (Tuesday through Monday) A several day period of active weather will begin on Tuesday as a deep trough/upper low develops over the western CONUS.
742 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Low pressure off the coast will move away overnight. High pressure is expected to extend from the Great Lakes to the southeastern states on Tuesday.
The cold front has started its dissipation just south of the area. The cooler and dry airmass will allow overnight temperatures to drop into the 50s areawide. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Tuesday) Pleasant weather is expected through the short term period as high pressure builds over the eastern CONUS.
A pattern change will allow much cooler temperatures and widespread showers to develop across the region the latter half of the week. Mid-level moisture and instability ahead of a weak cut-off low pressure system off the coast of CA will lead to a 15-20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly across Elko and northern White Pine Counties. Starting Tuesday, a pattern change will get underway as a cold, upper level trough moves southward from Canada into the region. A cold front accompanying the trough will increase afternoon winds to 10-15 mph with gusts as high as 20 mph for northern NV.
616 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Dry high pressure will dominate our weather through the work week.
Water vapor imagery highlights a positively tilted long-wave trough axis extending from the Great Lakes into the Gulf of Mexico. The southern extent of this trough has carved out a divot in the mean layer ridging. The potent anticyclone over the Baja Peninsula should maintain this trough's equatorward extent for the next several days. A stalling cold front is over south- central Florida with dewpoints in Central Florida now in the mid-60s.
927 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Dry high pressure will dominate our weather through the work week.
The front is determined to linger and will increase rain chances once again tomorrow for southern counties, while northern counties will get a taste of some drier and slightly cooler air. However, showers/storms expected in the afternoon where the cold front stalls out.
555 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Updated Aviation Discussion Winds will gradually diminish overnight tonight as noticeably cooler air works its way into the area.
High pressure continues to build in the wake of the frontal passage this past weekend.
746 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 High pressure will move east into the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight. The high will remain over the region on Tuesday. Expect Tuesday's highs to range from the lower 70s northeast to the mid/upper 70s southwest. Low temperatures are generally forecast in the lower and middle 50s.
(Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening, with high pressure in control -- promoting clear skies and light winds. Lows will eventually bottom out in the low to mid 50s in most locations by early Tuesday morning.
513 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Air Quality Section Updated Cooler conditions prevail today due to onshore flow from a meandering system to our west.
High pressure is centered over the lower Ohio, mid Mississippi valleys this afternoon and will drift eastward tonight, settling more directly overhead, or the mid Ohio Valley region by early Tuesday morning. Ridge lines (thermal belt) are expected to drop into the lower 50s tonight, and only mid 50s tomorrow night. Ridge valley splits should be larger tomorrow night with southerly return flow beginning to kick back in across the region as high pressure continues to move to the east. Upper level ridging will extend from the Mid Atlantic and into the Ohio Valley and upper Great Lakes and another stronger area centered over Mexico will extend into the southern Plains.
Hoenisch Winds will gradually diminish overnight tonight as noticeably cooler air works its way into the area.