Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1212 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 (Today and tonight) As of 4 AM, a cold front had made it south of a line from Sterling City to Brownwood, and was continuing south through the area. Highs today will be cooler overall, but the greatest cooling will be experienced across the northern half of the area with the more significantly cooler air lagging well behind the front. In addition, with the front in the area, and upper ridge continuing to weaken/retreat westward, scattered thunderstorms will be possible, generally for areas west of a Haskell to Abilene to Brownwood line. Lows are expected to be in the low to mid 70s tonight.
Monsoon moisture will dwindle over the coming days, as high pressure strengthens along the west coast. These factors exist in central and eastern Arizona, namely over the high terrain. High pressure is in the process of elongating and shifting from New Mexico to Arizona, and then the west coast over the next few days.
Above normal temperatures will continue over the next couple days before the cold front bumps us back down to more seasonable weather and a chance for some thunderstorms.
A 500 mb subtropical high parked across the desert southwest will be just south of an increasingly onshore trough moving across the Pacific Northwest early this week.
333 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 This evening and tonight: A cold front is making its way south across the area today and is helping to support an MCV which is providing some much needed rainfall across northern counties. The area of focus has shifted south as cooler than expected temperatures are being observed for areas north. Most of the higher rainfall totals should be concentrated south of our area and closer to the coast, but should alleviate ongoing fire conditions to the south. Current guidance suggests some favorable convective parameters with some isolated severe potential, as is reflected by the marginal risk, although slightly weaker laspe rates than today and cooler temperatures overall.
Temperatures today and Monday will continue to run 8 to 10 degrees warmer than average this time of year. The high resolution model ensemble depicts a 10 percent probability for thunderstorms.
(This afternoon through Monday night) There are no major changes to the short term forecast with WV imagery showing the upper ridge positioned over AZ, resulting in northwesterly flow aloft for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This will be increasing our mid-level moisture the next several days while also opening up the ability for a cold front to push through today.
330 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 There is a trough over eastern Canada into the Great Lakes with high pressure over the Mountain West into the Plains. Highlights: Temperatures near normal (around 90 degrees) & dry Changes: Adjusted dewpoints tonight into Monday High pressure is anticipated to stay in place with the trough over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes.
Winds were north to northwest behind the trough with temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 80s. Ahead of the trough winds were southerly with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Weak high pressure builds over the forecast area tonight and remains through Monday. Monday will be slightly cooler than today with generally light winds.
Temperatures are much cooler than what has been observed lately. (Tonight through Sunday) For the next few days high pressure will remain west of the area with a diffuse trough to the east. This will induce east to northeast flow through the lower atmosphere, continually advecting cool and dry air into the region. Overnight lows will also be cooler, generally in the upper 50s to upper 60s, coolest in the north. By the middle of the week a deep trough will dive south along the west coast, which will stimulate a resurgence of high pressure over the area. 500 hPa heights will increase to above 590 dm once again, with the ridge center near or directly overhead by midweek. The ridge will continue to build, with most model guidance showing 500 hPa heights peaking around 595-598 dm by the weekend.
High pressure will continue to build into the region today as a ridge axis shifts westward, limiting incoming monsoon moisture to central Idaho.
Northeast winds around the high will continue to bring drier air and cooler in. Some northern locales will approach 50 degrees while southwestern sections may only hit the lower 60s. Normal afternoon highs for late August are in the lower and mid 80s.
These ideal radiational cooling conditions will set the stage for cool lows in the lower to mid 50s outside of Chicago and lower 60s in the city. High pressure overhead on Monday will keep the near or completely cloud free and tranquil conditions going and enable an early inland push of the lake breeze.
The high based (10,000 feet) shower and isolated thunder activity continues across most of the FA, but seems to be ending now across the Devils Lake region.
Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated through tonight as aforementioned high pressure remains overhead. Lots of low 40s to low 50s again tonight, but a repeat of a few interior/cooler locations in the mid-upper 30s appears likely.
301 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Cooler but pleasant day so far as high pressure centered over northern WI/UP continues to govern local conditions.
102 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Dry and stable conditions to finish the weekend period as high pressure builds across the region. The persistence of this northeast flow over the last 24 hours has advected a cooler and drier airmass into Se Mi. There will still be ample intervals of clear skies which combined with the weak gradient and dry air in the low levels will lead to a relatively cold night with lows down into the 40s outside of the Detroit metro area. Ample sun on Monday and some recovery in the low level thermal fields will support afternoon highs more solidly into the 70s.
BB/03 (Now through Monday) For much of the day today, our region remains positioned underneath an upper-level deformation zone; with upper ridging positioned to our east and west, an upper low to our south over the northern Gulf, and upper troughing over the Great Lakes region. Subsidence from the close proximity of the upper ridges should help to keep convective coverage more scattered in nature. Upper ridging appears to retreat farther from our area as the upper low over the northern Gulf pushes into the southeast US. With subsidence still in place and dry air aloft, afternoon dew points may once again mix down into the low to mid 60s for areas north of I- 10.
(This evening through Monday night) The Panhandles are in the northeastern periphery of a Southwestern US upper-level ridge, leading to northwesterly flow aloft.
406 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 High pressure will cross the region tonight through Monday.
Temperatures will remain cooler on Monday as well with temperatures in the upper-70's for the Plateau and into the low to mid-80's elsewhere.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Monday Night/ A cold front continues to make southward progress through the region with most locations now under the influence of northerly flow. The actual "cooler" air is generally along and north of I-20 where temperatures are in the lower 90s as opposed to upper 90s and low 100s to the south. For the remainder of the afternoon though, we'll keep the highest PoPs confined to the southern half of the CWA. Temperatures will fall into the low 70s across the north with mid/upper 70s farther south tonight. Monday should be drier and cooler than today with most areas in the low/mid 90s.
Cloudy and cooler weather will continue throughout the afternoon hours with any additional rain expected to remain over southern and eastern sections of the Mid-South. Temperatures will be considerably less hot than in recent days, thanks to a cold front that passed through the Midsouth last evening. A second cold front will pass through on Monday, bringing lower humidity and significantly limiting the chances of additional rainfall through midweek.
216 PM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Western CONUS ridging over the northern Rockies and high plains will remain in place through Monday. The first is currently rounding the ridge across the MT/WY border and is expected to produce isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm activity across our southern CWA zones into the evening.
Cold front also making progress into the area and bringing a little better convergence along with gusty north winds. Finally, with more clouds and cooler temps behind the front, will not need to have heat headlines for Monday.
1024 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Upper high currently sits over the 4 corners region, with the ridge stretching over the rockies, and northwest flow over our region. Precipitation should be out of the region by midnight, and as the upper ridge builds into the region, mostly dry and warmer conditions are expected through the work week.
High pressure pushing toward the region will result bring fair weather with cool comfortable conditions today.
As high pressure builds into the region, expect sunny skies and light winds with highs only in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees on Monday.
At the surface, high pressure was centered near KHLC, with trough/inverted trough near a Greeley to Scottsbluff line. With limited instability and strong cap across much of the CWA today, do not expect thunderstorms in northern Colorado along trough axis to make any rapid shift eastward into the CWA, with best chances for precipitation occurring later in the evening. Think most likely scenario will be more widespread precipitation to develop Monday morning into the afternoon as destabilization occurs at the same time short wave trough is moving over area. The main feature for this part of the forecast will be the upper level ridge re-asserting itself over the Plains by the end of the week.
230 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Overall dry weather expected for the short term with high confidence on cooler temperatures for Monday. Northwest flow continues over the Northern Plains with a ridge to our west and a trough to the east.
It's not well defined, but appears there is a short wave trough moving into western Colorado. For Monday, a weak cold front pushes in from the north early in the morning.
19Z water vapor imagery showed a closed low off the OR coast with broad ridging over the southwestern U. Surface obs show high pressure centered over the upper midwest with ridging into western KS.
346 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 High pressure across the Great Lakes will persist into Monday night.
Dry, benign northwest flow aloft has now become established across the region, thanks to the westward migration of a broad upper ridge. A cold front has how fully swept through the area, and the combination of this and persistent cloud cover has kept temperatures very mild so far this afternoon, with highs likely only reaching into the low to mid 70s in most areas.
There are several factors that are coming together between the subtropical ridge, an approaching front, and a bit of influence from Tropical Depression Ten. NBM wants to bring the high temperatures for Brownsville to 106 degrees. Have blended the temperatures down a bit for the Lower Rio Grande Valley, since 106 would be much high than any recorded for Brownsville.
The high pressure ridge will slowly migrate southeast overnight with warm advection arriving over northwest Iowa. Monday will be warmer with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The remainder of the forecast features the re-establishment of the upper high just to the south of Iowa return of the thermal ridge into Iowa. This round of heat does not appear as oppressive as what just occurred over Iowa with cooler atmospheric column. In addition, the low level moisture feed from the Gulf appears to be disrupted for much of the period and with the diminishing contribution to the low level moisture from the crops, the dew points should be much lower resulting in much improved heat index values.
This has been enhanced by a weak inverted trof, which is reflected in the cumulus placement, and in the weak surface winds, with slight dewpoint enhancement from south to north, which lays out right over our area. Lows in the lower to mid 50s should be widespread, with some favored cool spots possibly hitting the upper 40s in northwest Illinois. Monday, will be a beautiful late summer day, with plenty of sun, southwest winds around 10 mph, and highs in the lower 80s.
While not a true cold front. After the aforementioned disturbance tracks south of the area late in the day Monday, dry weather looks to be in store for the rest of the week as high pressure aloft begins to build. Thankfully, this ridge does not appear as strong as the previous ridge and dewpoints currently are forecast to be closer to 60 degrees.
Impacts are not expected today or Monday in the wake of a weak cold front.
Top shelf! Upper air analysis shows Nebraska and Iowa under northwest flow between the H5 ridge over the Desert Southwest and a trof over the Great Lakes. A surface trof pushes NW to SE across the area and veers the southwesterly winds. Have introduced 20% PoPs to the southern half of the CWA with the trof's passage in the afternoon heat. Forecast highs range from the low 80s southeast of Omaha to near 90 between the Platte River and the Missouri River.
Some breaks in the clouds during the afternoon along with increasing low level moisture/sfc dewpoints should support isolated to sct convection over the higher terrain.
342 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 (Issued 342 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023) Tonight and Monday: Another cool night with lows in the lower to mid 50s (warmer lakeshore) is in store for southern WI. With low pressure approaching from northern MN, our winds will become southerly. This will help usher warmer air into southern WI, so highs should be in the upper 70s to around 80. Afternoon diurnal cumulus clouds seem likely for inland areas with the higher dewpoints.
1227 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 (Today and tonight) The cold front has pushed south of the FA, though the front is not expected to have any significant impact on low temps this morning. The upper high will continue pushing off to the west and will eventually place the FA under northwesterly upper flow. Overall convection should remain fairly tame as CAPE will be around 1000 j/kg on the high side and will limit the severe threat. The combination of CAA and rain cooled air will help overnight lows reach into the low/upper 60s on the Caprock and upper 60s/low 70s off the Caprock.
Weak southerly winds from departing high pressure over the Great Lakes have caused slightly warmer temperatures compared to yesterday. The flow aloft becomes stagnant through the rest of the week as amplified ridging over central North America pushes the jet stream well into northern Canada. Heights will rise through the week in response to the amplified ridging which will cause temperatures to return to above-normal values.
At least cooler high temps in the lower half of the 80s will be a respite even there.
Despite tremendous dry air sampled in the 12z sounding above a weak inversion based at around 800 mb, the low-levels have certainly moistened up over the past 12 hours. Weak steering flow has also allowed a broken cloud line to form along portions of the Lower Keys. Boaters underneath the lower fixed bridges should expect much less clearance, especially during the morning high tide cycles. From synopsis, ridging over the Southeast will continue to weaken through tonight, as a trough digs over the Eastern Seaboard and the Western Atlantic waters.
138 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes for the beginning of the week, offering cooler and drier conditions.
As our subtropical high pressure area shifts to the west, unfavorable flow will draw much moisture out of the atmosphere above northern Arizona.
547 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 (This evening through Monday) With the cold front well into northern and central Texas, cooler temperatures continue to prevail across Oklahoma and western northern Texas. There are still some lingering 100+ degree heat indices across far southeastern Oklahoma and along the Red River where temperatures and dewpoints continue to be the highest (mid 90s and low 70s respectively). Winds overnight Sunday night into MSCT026 FEW060onday will weaken and will remain out of the northeast, while lows will range from the upper 50s to the low 70s.
High pressure will bring a drying trend heading into the upcoming week.
621 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 This evening and tonight: A cold front is making its way south across the area today and is helping to support an MCV which is providing some much needed rainfall across northern counties. The area of focus has shifted south as cooler than expected temperatures are being observed for areas north. Most of the higher rainfall totals should be concentrated south of our area and closer to the coast, but should alleviate ongoing fire conditions to the south. Current guidance suggests some favorable convective parameters with some isolated severe potential, as is reflected by the marginal risk, although slightly weaker lapse rates than today and cooler temperatures overall.
752 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 High pressure across the Great Lakes will persist into Monday night.
Due to high pressure ridge located to the northeast, onshore flow will prevail.
902 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 High pressure across the Great Lakes will persist into Monday night.
Showers and thunderstorm activity as ended across the higher terrain this evening under drier more stable conditions. This will continue into Monday though southeasterly winds will begin to increase ahead of the next upper level trough. This will allow temperatures to warm into the upper 90s in the lower valley.
Latest guidance supports the highest POPs across the south central mountains, where a deepening moist layer combined with an upsloping easterly flow could result in patchy light rain/drizzle after the best warm advection and scattered showers lift into Northern PA. The low level jet and best forcing should lift north of the PA/NY border by around midday, causing rain showers to taper off from north to south. Modest instability combined with the the approach of an upper level trough could support a few afternoon showers/tsra in this area. Further east, an easterly flow should result in cooler conditions with more persistent stratus and a minimal chance of any afternoon rainfall.
00z surface map indicated 1018 mb high pressure over the northern Great Lakes. As high pressure builds into the region, expect sunny skies and light winds with highs only in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees on Monday.
Latest guidance supports the highest POPs across the south central mountains, where a deepening moist layer combined with an upsloping easterly flow could result in patchy light rain/drizzle after the best warm advection and scattered showers lift into Northern PA. Clear skies and a light wind over the N Mtns should allow for decent radiational cooling, where min temps in the low 50s are possible. The low level jet and best forcing should lift north of the PA/NY border by around midday, causing rain showers to taper off from north to south. Modest instability combined with the the approach of an upper level trough could support a few afternoon showers/tsra in this area. Further east, an easterly flow should result in cooler conditions with more persistent stratus and a minimal chance of any afternoon rainfall.
Overall dry weather expected for the short term with high confidence on cooler temperatures for Monday. Northwest flow continues over the Northern Plains with a ridge to our west and a trough to the east.
624 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 There is a trough over eastern Canada into the Great Lakes with high pressure over the Mountain West into the Plains. Highlights: Temperatures near normal (around 90 degrees) & dry Changes: Adjusted dewpoints tonight into Monday High pressure is anticipated to stay in place with the trough over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes.
(This evening through Monday) With the cold front well into northern and central Texas, cooler temperatures continue to prevail across Oklahoma and western northern Texas. There are still some lingering 100+ degree heat indices across far southeastern Oklahoma and along the Red River where temperatures and dewpoints continue to be the highest (mid 90s and low 70s respectively). Winds overnight Sunday night into Monday will weaken and will remain out of the northeast, while lows will range from the upper 50s to the low 70s.
610 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Overall dry weather expected for the short term with high confidence on cooler temperatures for Monday. Northwest flow continues over the Northern Plains with a ridge to our west and a trough to the east.
643 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) There are no major changes to the short term forecast with WV imagery showing the upper ridge positioned over AZ, resulting in northwesterly flow aloft for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This will be increasing our mid-level moisture the next several days while also opening up the ability for a cold front to push through today.
Storms are expected to lose their steam around sunset, but a few showers will linger into the overnight hours on the high terrain of the Divide. A sharp moisture gradient to our west begins to shift east and is expected to dry the lower atmosphere out some Monday. The approaching Pacific Northwest low amplifies the ridge of high pressure over the Rockies Monday night and is expected to put the breaks on any remaining storm activity.
A series of lows will bring cooler temperatures to the region this week. Along with these cooler temperatures widespread chances for rain will also increase through the week.
1010 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 No changes needed to the forecast this evening as high pressure builds in from the north. The center of the high should remain to our north, and MSLP gradient induced winds are expected to continue across the region overnight. Northeast winds around the high will continue to bring drier air and cooler in. Some northern locales will approach 50 degrees while southwestern sections may only hit the lower 60s. Normal afternoon highs for late August are in the lower and mid 80s.
1021 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Update High pressure remains firmly in control of the Great Lakes area weather tonight. Dew points are generally in the low 50s across Southwest Lower Michigan this evening, which is rather dry for even late August. The dry air and light winds provided by the high will allow for readings to drop to lows in the middle 40s to around 50 degrees. As temperatures dip to the current dew points and below we should see some shallow fog develop, especially late when winds dip to below 6 mph in the lowest 1000 feet. - Cool temperatures again tonight An area of high pressure over Northern Lower MI slips slowly south through the night. The latest HRRR, RAP and NAM show the low level moist ridge arriving mainly after 06z Tue along with weak instability.
947 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 A weak cold front is expected to remain draped across the region through the first half of the week resulting in several days of unsettled weather. The area cooled off quickly with the rain this evening but with debris cloudiness and stratus developing overnight, don't expect temperatures to drop much more overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.
The influence of high pressure continues through Monday afternoon with only a stray patch of shallow cumulus and light/variable wind. Cooler but pleasant day so far as high pressure centered over northern WI/UP continues to govern local conditions.
615 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 (This evening through Monday night) The Panhandles are in the northeastern periphery of a Southwestern US upper-level ridge, leading to northwesterly flow aloft.
730 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Aviation - Cool temperatures again tonight An area of high pressure over Northern Lower MI slips slowly south through the night. The latest HRRR, RAP and NAM show the low level moist ridge arriving mainly after 06z Tue along with weak instability.
Heading into Tuesday, highs rebound slightly with more of the Permian Basin in the low 90s and upper 80s clinging to the west where a majority of the precipitation chances will end up being.