Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Saturday Night) Dangerously hot conditions will prevail across Southeast TX as mid to upper level high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern. The high temperatures for today and Saturday will stay in the upper 90s to low 100s inland and in the low to mid 90s along the immediate coast and Barrier Islands. The lows during the overnight into early morning hours will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s, keeping us warm and muggy at night.
Overall synopsis shows an upper level high over the southwestern U.
The overall pattern through this period and beyond will continue to be governed by an upper ridge locked up over the Southwest US, and deep low pressure over central Canada. A more pronounced low-mid level trough is still progged to track east through the area Friday night into Saturday with several rounds of convection possible. Forcing from this trough and a well developed warm advection pattern continue to warrant likely PoPs, mainly for later Friday night and Saturday morning.
232 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2023 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a cool cored airmass centered over northern Manitoba and spread out over central Canada and Hot high pressure smashed down over the Desert Southwest and the southern Plains. A weak ridge spits north out of the Desert Southwest and runs up into the Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia.
209 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2023 An upper low west of Hudson Bay and general ridging from California to Washington, leaves Montana and northern Wyoming in northwest flow. Saturday will have building heights, as the western ridge pushes its axis into northern Idaho. Capes (300-500j/kg) will be pushed east of Billings, as will the higher PWAT air (above 0.
1215 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 (Tonight through Friday night) Currently we have an upper level ridge sitting over the desert SW to W Texas with a high pressure at the surface that is sitting over the Gulf of Mexico. Thanks to that upper ridge, we will not have to worry about PoPs, however heat will remain a problem.
(Today through Saturday) Typical summertime conditions persist through the short term as high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula and light southeasterly flow prevails.
Today, high pressure starts building in from the west with weak northwest flow aloft over the area. Temperatures will be near normal to slightly above normal today before rising to around 4 to 8 degrees above normal on Saturday with high pressure continuing to build into the area.
Severe weather is expected to remain on the low side. Expect forecast high temperatures to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s with the south experience the high heat index values today.
951 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 A weak cold front will move south of the region this afternoon. The next chance for storms arrives Saturday afternoon as low pressure moves northwest of the region. Dry weather is expected tonight with weak ridging aloft as another trough digs into the Midwest. This trough should move east on Saturday, tracking across the Upper Ohio Valley region late in the day through the evening.
The lee trough is still in place, but remains pretty weak. (Today through Saturday) West/northwest zonal upper flow continues across the FA today with ridging to our west and troughing across central and eastern CONUS.
Upper air analysis shows a H5 low continuing to spin over northern Manitoba and WNW flow over the High Plains. As skies clear tonight, temps will fall into the low 60s under the stars.
(Today through Saturday) West/northwest zonal upper flow continues across the FA today with ridging to our west and troughing across central and eastern CONUS.
Daytime highs reach into the upper 90s to near 110 out west today and tomorrow with lows in the lower 80s tonight. The core of the H5 ridge has now settled over the Desert Southwest and southern California for the short term. A few gusts between 35 to 40 mph remains possible today across the Lower and Mid Valley.
Heading into the afternoon, much of the high-res guidance shows sporadic popup convection.
Temperatures will be noticeably warmer today as high pressure ridging over the Desert Southwest extends westward with widespread triple digit highs across the Valley, Delta and foothills. The high pressure ridge will build northward over the weekend peaking over the region on Saturday.
723 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 (Today through Saturday) Typical summertime conditions persist through the short term as high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula and light southeasterly flow prevails.
Latest from the high resolution model does suggest that high amounts of MLCAPE will still be present for the day with pocket reaching into the 3000 J/kg range present across the northern half of the Panhandles.
The Florida Keys remain between a fractured low level ridge with a weakly defined axis lying to our north.
645 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 A weak cold front will move south of the region this afternoon. The next chance for storms arrives Saturday afternoon as low pressure moves northwest of the region. Dry weather is expected tonight with weak ridging aloft as another trough digs into the Midwest. This trough should move east on Saturday, tracking across the Upper Ohio Valley region late in the day through the evening.
629 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 (Today through Saturday Night) Dangerously hot conditions will prevail across Southeast TX as mid to upper level high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern. The high temperatures for today and Saturday will stay in the upper 90s to low 100s inland and in the low to mid 90s along the immediate coast and Barrier Islands. The lows during the overnight into early morning hours will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s, keeping us warm and muggy at night.
This additional cloud cover combined with the center of the upper-level ridge being even farther to the west today should help to keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler today compared to yesterday.
High pressure will continue building toward the Pacific Northwest into the weekend. The warming trend is expected to continue today and tomorrow as the high pressure strengthens with temperatures peaking on Saturday.
A substantial upper disturbance will rotate through the base of the large upper trough and through the Quad State tonight into Saturday. The larger-scale models would support likely to categorical PoPs, while the high- resolution models would suggest a bit more scattered coverage.
This would also maintain the threat for a few more intense updrafts capable of strong winds and large hail, but the higher severe risk will hold off to our south and west.
1242 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 As of 10:45 AM CDT, temperatures are approaching the 90-degree mark in most areas south of the I-30 corridor, while cooler temperature trends continue under more cloud cover from lingering convection. Given the rain chances and cloud cover, our north zones should remain cooler compared to elsewhere, with highs only getting up into the low-90s. However, given the location of the upper-level ridge, expect upper-90s and low triple digits elsewhere.
One thing that grabs our attention right now is how underdone guidance is on dewpoints, with most of the region already into the low-to-mid 70s.
The concern will be the coupling of that jet with the instability due to the short wave trough swinging through Lower Michigan. All of this potential ultimately stems from a large upper level low located over central Canada.
This evening, the showers and storms will be likely across the southeast half or so of the CWA where the higher rainfall amounts are projected to be. Ridging to our west, will bring northwest flow to the area. Weak low level flow will reflect a wind switch from southwest to west northwest late this afternoon and this evening, as a weak cold front arrives from the northwest.
With the high probability of additional outflow boundaries interacting with the seabreeze lifting northward, numerous thunderstorms are anticipated to continue through the afternoon and increase in coverage across the area. The aforementioned trough will swing eastward during the overnight hours and through the day on Saturday, while the ridge over the Southern Plains nudges eastward. Saturday will be similar, though temps may rise a degree or two higher in response to the building ridge.
Lapse rates are strongest in the lower to mid levels, and by the time we would access our instability our lapse rates range from 6-7. Temperatures as of 2pm sit in the low to mid 80s for most, with some upper 80s to near 90 in the northern metro where there has been better clearing throughout the day, compared to mid 70s in southern Minnesota where the better cloud cover has remained.
This feature is tracking slowly southeastward into the central plains as a cold front pushes southward across central Kansas. The cold front is expected to reach northern Oklahoma between 7-9PM and slowly move southward overnight with storms possibly moving through the metro between 11PM - 1AM. Tomorrow is forecast to be much cooler and below-average, in fact.
138 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 A weak cold front will move south of the region this afternoon. The next chance for storms arrives Saturday afternoon as low pressure moves northwest of the region. Dry weather is expected tonight with weak ridging aloft as another trough digs into the Midwest. This trough should move east on Saturday, tracking across the Upper Ohio Valley region late in the day through the evening.
Saturday sees temperatures begin to rebound a few degrees as a ridge builds in earnest to our west. Northwest flow aloft favors another day of breezy west wind in the mountains and across the high deserts of southwest Wyoming.
Upper level ridge will begin to expand northward today bringing well above normal temperatures this weekend. The upper ridge axis will be just west of the area today for temperatures about 3 degrees above normal.
Another hot day across northern and central Arizona today as the high pressure remains centered just to the west of the state.
139 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Summary: Stagnant weather pattern continues with periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms though a bit cooler than normal.
Weak surface ridging moves over the area for weekend, which will lead to mostly clear conditions and seasonal temperatures.
1106 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 As of 10:45 AM CDT, temperatures are approaching the 90-degree mark in most areas south of the I-30 corridor, while cooler temperature trends continue under more cloud cover from lingering convection. Given the rain chances and cloud cover, our north zones should remain cooler compared to elsewhere, with highs only getting up into the low-90s. However, given the location of the upper-level ridge, expect upper-90s and low triple digits elsewhere.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Ensemble means depict the ridge centered over the southwestern U.
230 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday) High pressure continues across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A lee trough remains situated along the Appalachians. There are significant differences between the high res models.
On Saturday, ridging will continue to build in from the west, allowing for heat indices to range between 105-110 once again. Highs are expected to range from the lower to upper 90s.
Surface analysis indicates an outflow driven boundary from near Stillwater to Okmulgee to north of Sallisaw with relatively cooler and drier air to the north.
Mid/upper level high pressure system continues to bring very hot and humid conditions to S TX. Models show a weak mid level trough draped generally across the Rio Grande and northeastern Mexico, but will have little to no impact on the heat nor will it bring any rain chances to the area.
400 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Weak high pressure gradually moves east during the day today. Low pressure arrives Saturday and brings widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Synoptic Overview: An amplifying upper level ridge will migrate westward from the Desert Southwest to the southern Pacific Coast this weekend. as the aforementioned ridge retrogrades to the Pacific Coast and amplifies /extends northward/ through the Intermountain West and PAC NW. Expect relatively cooler temperatures and [overall] decreased potential for convection. Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri Jul14 2023 Ridging will be present over the plains to start the period. A dryline will be setup near the KS/CO line, locales on the dry side of the aforementioned boundary will be the warmer air temperature wise vs on the more moist side temperatures won't be as warm but heat indices will be near or above the triple digits.
Colder air brought in by the northwesterly flow and the smoke layer will limit our heating potential and highs will be slightly cooler in the low 80s. A weak cold front moves through Saturday night which might spark a few very scattered showers over southcentral SD. Temperatures remain on the cooler (for July) side as winds at the surface become northwesterly.
The second theme is the idea of nocturnal convection building/moving southward through the Texas Panhandle as an outflow-enhanced cold front moves southward, supported by a large upper low moving slowly southward out of central Canada. Models remain in decent agreement that this low level boundary will progressively work on the deep moisture in place and release energy into the form of showers and thunderstorms, perhaps in similar fashion to the gravity wave that moved through the forecast area overnight did.
Still a chance for some showers to drop down later this afternoon and evening as the cold front pushes in, so will keep low POPs going.
The next chance for storms arrives Saturday afternoon as low pressure moves northwest of the region. A digging trough extending down to the TN valley will be the next weather maker for later in the day.
Tonight and Saturday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show flattened troughing across the northern Mississippi Valley and northern Great Lakes early this afternoon. With thunderstorms exiting overnight, slight height falls will be occurring aloft with weak cold advection in the low levels.
The ridge of high pressure will steadily strengthen this weekend causing some of the warmest and driest conditions experienced across the Northern Rockies this season.
333 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Eastern Kentucky remains on the far periphery of cyclonic flow around a large deep upper low centered over central Canada. Meanwhile, a strong upper high remains situated from the southern half of California east to the western panhandle of Texas. A marginal threat for excessive rainfall also exists given the high precipitable water values, but the greater threat will be in southern West Virginia and western Virginia where multiple periods of heavy rainfall have occurred in the last couple of days. Precipitation tapers off from west to east with upper trough passage Saturday night and the arrival of a drier air mass aloft along with weak northwesterly flow.
1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 (Rest of Today) Morning model guidance suggests that WNW flow aloft will remain in the 15-25 knot range across the TN Valley today, with the region located to the south of a weakening upper low (which will remain nearly stationary across northern Manitoba) and to the east of a strengthening subtropical high centered across southern CA. With deep-layer shear predicted to remain only marginally favorable for storm organization, the magnitude of storm impacts today will be largely dictated by instability, and presuming that the low stratus cloud layer (currently in place across the region) eventually lifts/scatters, it seems reasonable to believe that temps should reach the 90-94F range for most valley locations with subsequent values of MLCAPE as high as 2000-3000 J/kg.
The main question is how far west the storms will develop due to weaker forcing to the south and west and warmer mid levels. High winds and hail will be the main concerns as the low level shear is very weak so that significant tornadoes are not expected. Cooler and drier air will move into western Kansas Saturday.
A weak cold front will move into North Texas overnight, then approach the northern Big Country Saturday morning, before stalling near I-20. Temperatures behind the front will be slightly cooler across the Big Country with temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100. Upper level ridging is forecast to generally keep any shower and thunderstorm activity north of our area through the next 24 hours.
(This evening through Saturday Night) Those looking for cooler weather or any form of measurable rainfall will (once again) find themselves out of luck. A mid to upper level ridge situated over the Southwestern US/West Coast should continue to dominate the weather pattern across the state, keeping rain chances slim to none throughout the short term.
Therefore, will keep the likely POPs in the forecast for South Florida for today with the highest POPs over the interior areas. (Today through Saturday) Typical summertime conditions persist through the short term as high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula and light southeasterly flow prevails.
Highs still look to be in the low to mid 80s. This is the result of broad upper troughing over much of the northern CONUS.
The concern will be the coupling of that jet with the instability due to the short wave trough swinging through Lower Michigan. All of this potential ultimately stems from a large upper level low located over central Canada. This is the result of broad upper troughing over much of the northern CONUS.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler and generally in the 70s.
(Rest of Today) Morning model guidance suggests that WNW flow aloft will remain in the 15-25 knot range across the TN Valley today, with the region located to the south of a weakening upper low (which will remain nearly stationary across northern Manitoba) and to the east of a strengthening subtropical high centered across southern CA. With deep-layer shear predicted to remain only marginally favorable for storm organization, the magnitude of storm impacts today will be largely dictated by instability, and presuming that the low stratus cloud layer (currently in place across the region) eventually lifts/scatters, it seems reasonable to believe that temps should reach the 90-94F range for most valley locations with subsequent values of MLCAPE as high as 2000-3000 J/kg.
1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 (Today through Saturday Night) Dangerously hot conditions will prevail across Southeast TX as mid to upper level high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern. The high temperatures for today and Saturday will stay in the upper 90s to low 100s inland and in the low to mid 90s along the immediate coast and Barrier Islands. The lows during the overnight into early morning hours will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s, keeping us warm and muggy at night.
High pressure is beginning to build over the region and will continue to do so throughout the weekend.
621 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) Ensemble means depict the ridge centered over the southwestern U.
349 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2023 The Northern Rockies region is under northwesterly aloft, between an upper ridge centered from WA to CA, and an upper trough to the east.
648 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Low pressure over the central Great Plains this evening moves east across the Ohio Valley tomorrow through tomorrow night.
647 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Summary: Stagnant weather pattern continues with periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms though a bit cooler than normal.
948 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Isolated convection continues ahead of a southward propagating cold front. Areas of smoke remain with visibilities varying quite a bit both north and south of the cold front. Temperatures will be slightly cooler and generally in the 70s.
520 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2023 GOES-16 satellite imagery reveals mostly sunny skies across eastern Utah and western Colorado with just some fair weather cumulus across the northern border and along ridgetops. Minor relief from the heat is in store tonight, however, as drier and slightly cooler air moves in from the northwest. Prevailing flow will remain out of the northwest as the CWA sits on the downstream side of an amplifying ridge over the Great Basin as well as an upper level jet. The "cooler" air mass in place may keep temperatures across the north near to below normal. and the high in Grand Junction below 100 degrees.
A weak cold front will move into North Texas overnight, then approach the northern Big Country Saturday morning, before stalling near I-20. Temperatures behind the front will be slightly cooler across the Big Country with temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100. Upper level ridging is forecast to generally keep any shower and thunderstorm activity north of our area through the next FEW25024 hours.
Thiem (This afternoon through Saturday) High pressure continues across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A lee trough remains situated along the Appalachians. There are significant differences between the high res models.
Light/variable winds with a ridge axis over the area, combined with ample low level moisture, should allow for some patchy fog to develop for a couple hours.
Strong high pressure brings hot daytime conditions with mild nights.
Very heavy rainfall will also be a concern with any cores that go up until storm motion increases as the trough gets closer by 11p-12a.
623 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 (This evening through Saturday Night) Those looking for cooler weather or any form of measurable rainfall will (once again) find themselves out of luck. A mid to upper level ridge situated over the Southwestern US/West Coast should continue to dominate the weather pattern across the state, keeping rain chances slim to none throughout the short term.
947 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Summary: Stagnant weather pattern continues with periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms though a bit cooler than normal.
340 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2023 GOES-16 satellite imagery reveals mostly sunny skies across eastern Utah and western Colorado with just some fair weather cumulus across the northern border and along ridgetops. Minor relief from the heat is in store tonight, however, as drier and slightly cooler air moves in from the northwest. Prevailing flow will remain out of the northwest as the CWA sits on the downstream side of an amplifying ridge over the Great Basin as well as an upper level jet. The "cooler" air mass in place may keep temperatures across the north near to below normal. and the high in Grand Junction below 100 degrees.
948 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Low pressure over the central Great Plains this evening moves east across the Ohio Valley tomorrow through tomorrow night.
Colder air brought in by the northwesterly flow and the smoke layer will limit our heating potential and highs will be slightly cooler in the low 80s. A weak cold front moves through Saturday night which might spark a few very scattered showers over south central SD. Temperatures remain on the cooler (for July) side as winds at the surface become northwesterly.
Main weather concerns over the next couple of days will be very hot temperatures as high pressure ridging over the Desert Southwest extends westward. The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) continues to depict anomalous temperatures this weekend as ridging amplifies, peaking over the region on Saturday.
Mid-level trough over Ontario will slide southward and eastward towards the Great Lakes region, with an upper level ridge across TX building eastward across the southern US. The subtropical ridge will remain over the area, shifting slightly north and eastward as a frontal boundary moves across the eastern and southern portions of the US towards the eastern seaboard. Hot and humid conditions continue across the area, with afternoon highs in the low 90s along the coast, and low to mid 90s west of I- 95. The Atlantic ridge will remain over the area.