Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Lows tonight look to drop into the 40s and 50s with highs on Saturday climbing into the upper 70s and low 80s, with cooler readings near Lake Michigan.
We have had a few storms initiate over the terrain but weaken as they move northeast off the ridges. The southern stream wave looks to be driver today as it lifts out of AZ and across the lower 4 Corners region. The main northern stream trough driving this wave eastward will then sweep across the CO/UT border near sunrise and across the Divide by early afternoon. That does not mean threats will be none as the high LCLs forming in the drier airmass could lead to gusty outflow winds.
With MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, any established convection that moves into the area from the high terrain may result in some strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
(This evening through Saturday) Our area will remain under upper-level ridging this evening which will keep us capped today. This convectively reinforced cold front should dive into the far southern Texas Panhandle by Saturday morning. Temperatures will also be much warmer tomorrow with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.
Ridging influence becomes more pronounced Saturday with weaker winds and low cloud fraction limited to transient cirrus and perhaps a bit of high-based afternoon boundary-layer cumulus as winds back slightly toward the northwest. With the low level winds remaining north-northeast off of Lake Huron, some concern the low clouds will be slow to dissipate this afternoon (see 5z RAP 850 MB RH), but will lean toward drier Euro/Regional GEM solutions which suggests 850 MB temps reaching between 10-11 C supporting highs predominately in the mid 70s.
At best, this will keep the northern tier of the Basin ever so slightly "cooler" in the mid to upper 90s.
A weak are of low pressure is rotating over south-central Wyoming and bringing ample moisture into much of central Wyoming.
1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The upper low that has been vacationing over the Great Lakes this week will continue to pull away today as upper-level ridging builds into the region. On the bright side, the aforementioned ridge axis is forecast to move overhead heading into Saturday which should improve the previously mentioned conditions. Regardless, temperatures are expected to be warmer than today with highs forecast to be in the low to mid-80s for most though mid-60s to lower 70s are expected for those along the lake shore.
Another hot and muggy day is on tap with afternoon highs topping out in the lower 90s with heat index values reaching into the 100-105 range. POPs between 50-60% are expected today as an upper-level trough across the Southeastern U. The upper-level trough across the Southeastern U. While a series of disturbances riding the trough from northwest to southeast across the state will lead to elevated rain chances during the afternoon and evening hours, the southwest flow coupled with the increased moisture will lead to increased rain chances during the overnight and morning hours over the water and just inland. Due to the heightened rain chances, widespread QPF values between 2 to 4 inches over the next 5 days are anticipated with the highest amounts from Tampa Bay northward.
1158 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times today as a cold front slowly crosses the region. Dry weather is expected for the weekend under building high pressure. Additional development is expected this afternoon into the early evening as upper level low pressure drifts across the region with a surface boundary. The overall lack of shear and tall, skinny CAPE profiles point to a very low risk of severe weather, although sufficient CAPE levels and low freezing levels could lead to some instances of small hail. The upper trough is expected to deepen into a closed low across the NE CONUS, and persist through the weekend.
1005 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 It will be cooler today, with high temperatures around 80 degrees and light northeast winds.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) A weak, convectively reinforced cold front creeped into the northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico this morning. Midland/Odessa may climb into the low 100s. Elsewhere, temperatures are already in the low 100s and are expected to reach the mid 100s. Saturday is expected to have a similar upper-level pattern to today with 850 mb temps in the low 30's C.
Brief upper ridge drops across East Idaho overnight tonight, replaced very quickly with zonal flow across the region during the day Saturday. Flow aloft strengthens significantly Saturday through Saturday night, with development of cold frontal feature Saturday night across the panhandle ahead of deepening low over the PacNW.
Quiet weather for today as high pressure at the surface and aloft dominate the weather pattern. There will be low pressure at the surface over southwestern MN with a trough northwestward through MN into extreme eastern ND.
138 PM PDT Fri Jun 16 2023 A passing trough will bring isolated thunderstorms to the northern mountains and high desert today as clearing occurs west of the mountains. Weak ridging will make a brief appearance on Saturday, making it the warmest and sunniest day overall.
Robust midlevel ridging, SW flow ar 850mb, and southerly surface winds providing Gulf moisture transport will remain the major contributing factors to tomorrow's weather, much like that of the past few days.
1044 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Storms move out of the area today with drier and cooler conditions to start out the weekend. Current sfc analysis depicts cold front draped across central SD. Upper level trough axis sits over central WY. Unsettled weather continues today as the upper trough moves through the region.
The highest probabilities may come after 00Z on the leading edge of the approaching pv anomaly.
401 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Quiet weather continues over the Great Lakes this afternoon as a ridge continues to build in. Temperatures seem unbothered by this haze aloft, as most of the area is climbing comfortably into the lower to mid 70s. Capping may also be responsible for the failure of dewpoints to mix out quite as dramatically as expected in the far eastern UP, but RH is still dropping into the lower 30s and even upper 20s in some pockets. Expect mainly clear skies, with some patchy fog not out of the question in the interior-western UP while temperatures fall to lows generally in the lower to mid 40s.
This weekend should feature warmer, more summer like temperatures, with rain free weather much of the time. For Saturday, another piece of upper-level energy is expected to rotate down the back side of a slowly departing trough axis. Given more sunshine and warmer temperatures aloft, Saturday's afternoon highs should trend warmer, ranging from the lower 70s over the higher terrain, to the lower 80s in the Middle and Lower Susquehanna Valleys.
Meanwhile, the upper trough, currently over western parts of Pennsylvania and New York, will move into New England as an upper ridge approaches central Indiana from the west. Thin ribbon of moisture in place along with the cyclonic flow in the wake of the trough and daytime heating has lead to extensive stratocu field near and north of Interstate 74. As the trough moves further away tonight, diurnal heating ends and winds drop off, expect at least partial clearing tonight. Saturday will see plenty of sunshine around with only a very thin layer of moisture 4-5K feet and subsidence related to high pressure. Models show an upper wave moving into the Ohio Valley before stalling, forming into an expanding low, and then slowly track southward through the period while elongated ridging stretches from Texas into the Great Lakes region.
Aloft, South Florida remains entrenched between two mid-level ridges over the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean, while a strong trough continues to deepen over the southeastern US. This unsettled pattern continues on Saturday as the upper level trough expands southward, with increased chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day (in the range of 70-80%).
Lows should be in the 50s to near 60 behind the weak front and in the lower 60s ahead of it. Temperatures will be cooler in most locations as clouds and precipitation keep heating limited. Cooler air will filter in with lows from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
227 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Dry through Saturday with ridging surface/aloft across the forecast area. Highs Saturday in the lower to mid 80s.
However, clouds will increase late tonight and Saturday as the strong upper- level trough approaches from the Gulf of Alaska. The cold front ahead of the trough is now expected to cross our area late Saturday night.
The ensembles earlier this morning continue to show good agreement with an upper level trough moving northeast across the West Central High Plains early this evening.
228 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023 A weak upper low is over the Northern Rockies this afternoon with isolated to scattered showers over southeast MT, near the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains and foothills and in Sheridan County, WY. Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, an upper trough will move eastward into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, with southwesterly flow aloft moving eastward over the Northern Rockies.
Looking at beach web cams, there are not a large number of people out there which may be related to the cooler temperatures present today. A 500 mb ridge will continue to build eastward.
Dew points yesterday this time were in the mid to upper 60s and tonight they are in the low to mid 60s and should fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight. Short wave ridge builds in tomorrow and we are in for some great weather! Dew points will remain comfortable and temperatures will be seasonal with no precip expected.
Short wave troughs rounding the top of the upper ridge centered over the lower Rio Grande Valley TX will slide SE across FL and reinforce the larger scale upper troughing. Moisture will increase but so will cloudiness, limiting surface heating somewhat and holding max temps to the lower 90s.
625 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 (This evening through Saturday) Our area will remain under upper-level ridging this evening which will keep us capped today. This convectively reinforced cold front should dive into the far southern Texas Panhandle by Saturday morning. Temperatures will also be much warmer tomorrow with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.
This smoke is mostly aloft and should clear out tonight with the cold frontal passage. Clouds increasing from the northwest as the cold front approaches the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon as the upper level low approaches the Pacific Northwest coast.
950 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 A weak cold front will will settle into and stall over SC through the weekend, while high pressure will otherwise extend from the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes to the middle Atlantic. A mid/upper-level cyclone will develop and move across and offshore the nrn middle Atlantic and Northeast this period, with following height rises and generally light (and weakening with time) nwly flow aloft directed across cntl NC. At the surface, a front will settle into and become quasi- stationary over SC, while high pressure otherwise builds from the upr Midwest southeast and into the cntl Appalachians and middle Atlantic. Upper ridge extending to the northeast across the Great Lakes while an upper level low over the TN valley will set up for a Rex Block pattern across the eastern US.
Look for otherwise quiet conditions overnight, with lows falling into the low to mid 50s. Boxell (Issued 332 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023) Tonight through Saturday night: The low stratus clouds have scattered out for the most part across the area, with the remaining cumulus to mix out this evening. High pressure will linger into Saturday, before slowly moving east Saturday night, with a 500 mb ridge axis over the region. Highs should be in the lower 80s inland, with 70s near the lake.
Earlier in the late afternoon and early evening there was an attempt at a late day reverse cloud line along mostly the Lower Keys that dissipated quickly after sunset.
Mostly clear skies (thin smoke layer aloft), temps cooling into the low-mid 50s and diminishing winds expected overnight as weak high pressure drifts east across the area. Looking at beach web cams, there are not a large number of people out there which may be related to the cooler temperatures present today. A 500 mb ridge will continue to build eastward.
438 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The remaining portions of the broad trough continue to sweep to the northeast this afternoon, and have taken most of the precipitation along with it. One trailing piece of the trough remains along the WY/ID border currently, and has been able to tap lingering moisture and daytime heating to spark showers along the higher elevations this afternoon.
753 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Quiet weather continues over the Great Lakes this afternoon as a ridge continues to build in. Temperatures seem unbothered by this haze aloft, as most of the area is climbing comfortably into the lower to mid 70s. Capping may also be responsible for the failure of dewpoints to mix out quite as dramatically as expected in the far eastern UP, but RH is still dropping into the lower 30s and even upper 20s in some pockets. Expect mainly clear skies, with some patchy fog not out of the question in the interior-western UP while temperatures fall to lows generally in the lower to mid 40s.
Dry through Saturday with ridging surface/aloft across the forecast area. Highs Saturday in the lower to mid 80s.
806 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Dry weather and seasonable temperature is expected for the weekend under building high pressure. Most of these are currently near and northwest of Pittsburgh, along a weak surface boundary/trough. The overall lack of shear and tall, skinny CAPE profiles point to a very low risk of severe weather, although sufficient CAPE levels and low freezing levels could lead to some instances of hail of up to a half-inch or so. Some lingering stratocumulus and patches of fog are possible in the cooler flow behind the front.
619 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) A weak, convectively reinforced cold front creeped into the northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico this morning. Midland/Odessa may climb into the low 100s. Elsewhere, temperatures are already in the low 100s and are expected to reach the mid 100s. Saturday is expected to have a similar upper-level pattern to today with 850 mb temps in the low 30's C.
High pressure builds over the area tonight from north and will remain in place through the weekend. We'll have broad northerly flow under high pressure and will possibly have another opportunity for smoke from Canadian wildfires to advect southward into the forecast area this weekend.
Low temperatures will bottom out in the low to mid 60s for most areas this morning.
135 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Quiet weather continues over the Great Lakes this afternoon as a ridge continues to build in. Temperatures seem unbothered by this haze aloft, as most of the area is climbing comfortably into the lower to mid 70s. Capping may also be responsible for the failure of dewpoints to mix out quite as dramatically as expected in the far eastern UP, but RH is still dropping into the lower 30s and even upper 20s in some pockets. Expect mainly clear skies, with some patchy fog not out of the question in the interior-western UP while temperatures fall to lows generally in the lower to mid 40s.
457 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 A much drier and somewhat cooler northerly flow in the wake of surface and upper level low pressure over the New England states will bring us morning clouds then increasing afternoon sunshine today. Sunday will feature slightly warmer temperatures with continued comfortable humidity. Weak ridging aloft and the subsiding, thermally indirect, right exit region of a speed max diving SE from Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes region of upstate New York will negate anything more than a few isolated showers NE of the KIPT area.
1001 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The remaining portions of the broad trough continue to sweep to the northeast this afternoon, and have taken most of the precipitation along with it. One trailing piece of the trough remains along the WY/ID border currently, and has been able to tap lingering moisture and daytime heating to spark showers along the higher elevations this afternoon. This will be able to tap Pacific moisture and transfer it across the higher elevations of western WY. This is a favorable pattern for daytime thunderstorms with gusty winds west of the Divide, but drier and windier downsloping flow and much warmer temperatures east of the Divide.
The highest totals are west of the Mississippi River. The 500 mb ridge will build quickly across the area early in the week. As the week progresses, the southern portion of the ridge will retrograde west toward the southwest US. This elongates the northern portion of the ridge that will be located over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. This will cause the northern extent of this ridge to gradually sink southward late in the week. The ECMWF ensemble 850 mb temperatures are 2 to 4C warmer than the GEFS.
304 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Dry weather and gradually warming temperatures are expected for the weekend under building high pressure. Upper Low cross eastern New York toward eastern MA today with northwest flow and building heights over the Upper Ohio River Valley. Weak northwest flow will continue at the surface as High Pressure buildings into the Great Lakes. Lingering low clouds and areas of fog early this morning should improve rapidly in most areas by mid to late morning with possible exception of the ridges which may not clear until the midday hours. Upper Low moves across the Gulf of Maine tonight with heights continuing to rise over forecast area.
After that, it's primarily a high pressure influence heading into the weekend, with dry warmth resulting in another mid 80s to near 90 degrees day. 50s dew points will be reinforced by northeast winds/flow around the high. Conditions begin to change late Saturday night into Sunday, as low pressure takes over for the eastward shifting and flattening ridge.
The highest probabilities may come after 00Z on the leading edge of the approaching pv anomaly. The mid/upper ridge will build back into the region early in the week ushering in rising heights/increasing thickness and rising temperatures.
1232 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 An upper low continues to move across the southern half of the state. Forecast highs are in the mid to upper 60s for most of the forecast area, with the exception of the far northwest and far southeast in the lower to mid 70s.
Temperatures will soar to the low 90s this afternoon, and dewpoints will be near the upper 70s and possibly topping near 80, resulting in heat indices topping out in the 106 to 112 range and accompanying heat advisories. The short-term forecast remains unchanged, as the current evolution indicates a ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico gradually shifting towards the west. Additionally, a trough in the southeastern region of the United States is expected to deepen as it moves towards the east-southeast, eventually covering the local area. The intensification of the trough will induce a shift in the mid and upper-level winds towards the northwest, while the surface winds will veer towards the southwest to the west.
Some redevelopment could occur Sunday afternoon within the base of the short wave trough, but coverage will be less than Saturday without the presence of a strong vort.
Mostly clear skies (thin smoke layer aloft), temps cooling into the low-mid 50s and diminishing winds expected overnight as weak high pressure drifts east across the area.
1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 (This afternoon through Saturday night) A weak, convectively reinforced cold front creeped into the northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico this morning. Midland/Odessa may climb into the low 100s. Elsewhere, temperatures are already in the low 100s and are expected to reach the mid 100s. Saturday is expected to have a similar upper-level pattern to today with 850 mb temps in the low 30's C.
RH values will drop to the lower to mid 20s across the northern zones where dry conditions in the jack pine forest areas will have to be monitored for fire weather potential. Another blocking pattern is taking shape, and we will once again be on the warm and dry portion of the block.
140 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 High pressure builds over the area tonight from north and will remain in place through the weekend. We'll have broad northerly flow under high pressure and will possibly have another opportunity for smoke from Canadian wildfires to advect southward into the forecast area this weekend. By Sunday, afternoon highs will rise into the low to mid 70s for most with highs touching 80 degrees possible across NW Ohio.
(Today and tonight) An upper trough is leading to overnight cloud cover across portions of the South Plains and will likely keep temperatures near 70 into the morning. The aforementioned trough axis will shift eastward across the Rockies by the afternoon. This in combination with a slightly upstream trough axis may provide enough forcing to break the cap and initiate supercell development, with greatest threats being large hail and damaging winds. However, the trough itself is rather shallow and associated omega values are unimpressive.
(Tonight through Sunday night) 500 mb ridging centered over West Texas and North Central Mexico is slowly spreading east (over deep South Texas and the West Gulf), with broad upper troughing over the Southeast United States. Gulf high pressure will support moderate south southeast winds and another day of a mix of low clouds and sun on Sunday.
Sunday: Nice rebound in temperatures with plenty of sunshine and warmer h8 temps will push afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s.
1145 AM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Warmer conditions are forecast for the next few days, along with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Clear and calm conditions are found across the area this morning as high pressure remains settled into the area. A few showers and thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain of Southwestern Montana and along the Rocky Mountain Front. Ludwig 1145 AM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023 (08/18Z TAF Period) With high pressure across the region, expect VFR conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours. Begin this forecast period with an upper level ridge located upstream.
Ridging will begin to build northward across the state and start to shut off the convection and bring summer-like temperatures. The top of the ridge will still be close enough for a spotty thunderstorm across the north, especially near the mountains, but the vast majority of the area will be dry.
However, for our N/NW CWA, these rain chances will remain limited (to nil) as the mid/upper ridge builds into the region from the W. Heading into tomor- row, as the ridge aloft settles over Far West TX, rain chances will continue to be best south and east of US-59/I-69, but a little low- er than today. For locations that are not expected to get any rains, look for highs today to climb into the lower to mid 90s. Elsewhere with the higher clouds and rain chances, high temperatures to remain in the lower 90s today and Sun.
Retained low PoPs this afternoon for this low probability scenario.
(Rest of today through Sunday) A trough of low pressure remains over the eastern United States while deep-layered high pressure sits to the east over the Atlantic.
In addition to this surface front, a short wave trough is moving across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. As the cold front pushes southeast, the chances for convection will also trek southeast along and south of the cold front. The cold front is forecast to be out of the area by the late evening, leaving dry conditions overnight and Sunday as dry air moves in.