Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Discussion: For this afternoon and overnight, water vapor imagery shows a positively tilted trough moving into northeastern Colorado. This becomes more of a rain/snow mix at onset further south where the low-levels have warmed above freezing. But once precipitation begins to fall through this layer, soundings quickly wet-bulb below freezing with snow then quickly becoming the prevailing precipitation type.
Temperatures are solidly below freezing across central, north-central, and northeast Kansas, keeping all precipitation snow. Across east-central Kansas temperatures are slightly warmer in the mid 30s. North of I-35, precip may briefly mix with rain/sleet, but this should be very brief as wet-bulbing cools temperatures below freezing. Snow will taper off from west to east after midnight tonight as the upper trough axis passes across eastern Kansas, followed by clearing skies tomorrow morning. Broad troughing over the eastern CONUS will keep temperatures below average, particularly where a decent layer of snow remains. By the second half of the week, temperatures return to near average as the eastern trough deamplifies and another upper low digs into the southwest CONUS. This trough is looking more likely (40-60%) to bring our next rain chance late week.
Current morning model guidance continue to highlight short wave ridging across the southeast US. With this higher mixing in place, a few cumulus clouds will appear later today. /CR/ Short wave ridging and dry air in the low levels will keep things dry today and this evening. A trough over the central CONUS will support a short wave that is progged to eject over the midsouth early Sunday. In the wake of the short wave, high pressure is progged to descend from Canada, which will keep our weather cool and dry for mid week.
As the snow has to overcome significant amounts of dry air in the lower atmosphere before reaching the surface. A cold front will track across Minnesota and into Wisconsin on Sunday. Ahead of this cold front will be a few hours with additional snow showers and behind this front will be gusty winds up to around 35 mph.
This will drive the associated cold frontal boundary right through the CWA from northwest to southeast. Winds themselves are generally expected to be on the lower end of Wind Advisory criteria. Initially, a fairly well amplified west CONUS ridge will be in place with a broad east CONUS trough off deep east Canadian upper low pressure.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) An Upper trough that extends from ND down across CO and AZ will swing east across the Rockies today and move onto the Central Plains tonight. As it does the tail of the trough will sweep across NM and the TX Panhandle. The trough will move east Sunday into the MS River Valley as high pressure grows along the West Coast. A cold front pushed into the region yesterday but is beginning to lift back to the north this afternoon. Temperatures will remain below normal with lows tonight at freezing or below across the nrn CWA.
Discussion: For Tonight, an upper ridge retreating east and surface wedge east of the Appalachians will keep conditions quiet across the region. For Sunday, an upper trough moves toward the Tennessee valley/southern Appalachians. Since the dynamics from this system stays generally north of the region and Gulf moisture is cutoff due surface ridging into southeast United States, rainfall chances are limited to chance to likely northern Plateau.
Afternoon highs are on track to reach the low 70s to upper 70s.
Strong high pressure leaves the period dry and clear aloft, with the only forecast concerns being fog and stratus below the radiation inversion. Wind under high pressure not expected to amount to much.
There may or may not be some lingering flurries in the highway 20 corridor through late afternoon.
Southerly low level flow increases tonight keeping temperatures warmer than this morning. Clouds will begin to increase around dawn as a trough approaches the area. Scattered light showers will move in from the west during the morning and continue through evening as a cold front passes.
Even then, the best chance of precipitation will be tied to the higher terrain.
512 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) An Upper trough that extends from ND down across CO and AZ will swing east across the Rockies today and move onto the Central Plains tonight. As it does the tail of the trough will sweep across NM and the TX Panhandle. The trough will move east Sunday into the MS River Valley as high pressure grows along the West Coast. A cold front pushed into the region yesterday but is beginning to lift back to the north this afternoon. Temperatures will remain below normal with lows tonight at freezing or below across the nrn CWA.
Surface ridging has shifted across the eastern and northeastern U. Southwesterly mid to upper level flow will increase across our forecast area late tonight into Sunday as a trough translates eastward across the Plains and the Mississippi Valley region.
Given this, the plains will fall into the 10s, the valleys cooling into the single digits, and the mountains sinking into the low single digits and around 0Â°F. Key Messages: - Slow warming trend this week with dry conditions through Wed - Weak weather system may bring some light snow to the mountains Thu/Fri Upper ridge slowly builds eastward out of the wrn U.
There is still some light snow falling over the high mountains and along the divide. Satellite pictures show the upper low circulation just east of the northeast corner of Colorado. Will keep a few pops in the high mountains through this evening, then dry the rest of the night and Sunday. (Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 228 PM MST Sat Nov 25 2023 A weak upper level ridge will move across the west through midweek.
Otherwise, overnight lows will be slightly warmer over the north because of the cloud cover, but still quite cold over Southwest MT where they will have some clearing. By the end of the week, expect the upper level ridge to break down and to be replaced by a moist westerly flow aloft.
Showers are expected to form tonight ahead of a cold front and last through midday Sunday.
This front is anticipated to cross the Mid-South tomorrow afternoon as a cold front. DNM Showers are expected to form tonight ahead of a cold front and last through midday Sunday.
Persistent high pressure will build, keeping the region dry and stagnant with little variation in temperatures each day. Freezing fog will be a daily concern as well. Today and Tomorrow: Main concern remains freezing fog with the ridge formation.
527 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Showers are expected to form tonight ahead of a cold front and last through midday Sunday.
=================================================================== Key Messages * Not quite as cold tonight compared to last night * Gray, breezy Sunday with patchy light rain =================================================================== As high pressure moves east of Cape Cod and a cold front approaches the Mississippi Valley tonight, surface breezes will gradually start to come out of the south while high clouds stream overhead in broad, fast southwest flow ahead of a deep upper trough moving from the Rockies into the Great Plains. The cold front will push into the middle Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon.
High pressure has begun to build along the northwest coastline today, placing western Montana and north central Idaho under northerly flow aloft.
Cold, northerly flow combined with radiational cooling brings overnight lows tonight into the low teens and single digits.
This will result in gradually less cold temperatures over the higher terrain while developing inversions limit warming in most valleys.
(Tonight) Quiet weather is expected tonight as the focus continues to be an approaching trough currently impacting the Plains states. Low temperatures remain near to slightly above normal dropping into the low to mid 40s across most locations. Otherwise, clouds will increase near sunrise as the trough and associated frontal boundary begin to push into the region with increasing rain chances holding off until after sunrise tomorrow.
Mid afternoon temperatures across parts of west central Oklahoma continue to hover around the freezing mark with light to moderate rain. So far the highest snowfall report has been in Harper county with about 2-3 inches. This will also coincide with precipitation changing to perhaps freezing rain or a wet snow across north central/central and southwest Oklahoma.
548 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 (Tonight) Satellite imagery shows ridging over the Eastern CONUS and troughing over the West with a low pressure system spinning across eastern CO. As this upper level trough shifts eastward overnight, the only noticeable weather impact to the Tennessee Valley will be an increase in primarily high level clouds after midnight. Otherwise, a tranquil weather evening is expected with overnight lows dropping into the lower 40s with upper 30s along the higher elevations in northeast AL and southern middle TN.
543 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 (This evening through Sunday night) In the immediate term, expect precipitation to continue, particularly in the eastern Panhandles in the vicinity of an 850mb cold front as frontogenesis increases in response to an arriving secondary cold front this afternoon. As for precipitation type, while progged low level warm advection has occurred, this is not translating to much warming at the surface, setting up an axis of freezing rain in the southern and central Panhandles, save the SE TX Panhandle where temps have been above freezing. With the Winter Weather Advisory have been previously expanded due to issues on bridges in the southern TX Panhandle, have left headlines as is with this update.
648 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Easterly to southeasterly flow at the surface has begun across Central Alabama in response to the ridge of high pressure centered along the eastern seaboard. Radiational cooling should allow temperatures to drop off into the lower 40s before clouds increase after daybreak. Mostly mid-level clouds will enter in from the southwest Sunday morning as an upper level trough ejects eastward over the central CONUS.
Rain chances ahead of an approaching cold front will quickly increase over the CWA after 12z and will become widespread before noon. =================================================================== Key Messages * Not quite as cold tonight compared to last night * Gray, breezy Sunday with patchy light rain =================================================================== As high pressure moves east of Cape Cod and a cold front approaches the Mississippi Valley tonight, surface breezes will gradually start to come out of the south while high clouds stream overhead in broad, fast southwest flow ahead of a deep upper trough moving from the Rockies into the Great Plains. The cold front will push into the middle Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon.
510 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 * A cold front will move into the region through the day Sunday, bringing light rain to the region.
601 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level trough and cold front are expected to move through the area overnight tonight. The lift associated with the upper level trough will be better to our north, but we'll see light showers here and there this afternoon and evening, prior to the front moving through. Temperatures will drop behind the front, putting some areas in the northern part of our area near freezing. Skies will clear slightly behind the front on Sunday, allowing for some solar heating, which will help keep temperatures slightly warmer than they otherwise would be behind the front.
(Today through Monday afternoon) A cold front is draped across parts of southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin this morning. It will gradually push through to the south and drier, cooler air will move in over the course of today. Sunday evening and into Monday morning see temperatures drop near freezing for the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the higher elevations. Highs on Monday do not move up much from today, but winds do shift easterly to southeasterly and most spots reach into the low 50s.
The snow that has fallen is quite fluffy, and with temperatures staying below freezing through the frontal passage, do have some concern for blowing snow developing.
Still expect accumulation over the Little Belt and Big Snowy mountains to top out around 2 inches over the highest terrain as previously forecast. Otherwise, overnight lows will be slightly warmer over the north because of the cloud cover, but still quite cold over Southwest MT where they will have some clearing.
(The rest of tonight) Cold front began its surge into the area a few hours ago, and is currently near a Vinita-Seminole line. Surface freezing line and 32 degree wet bulb temperature line has shifted just west of Osage and Pawnee Counties. Expect mainly a rain/snow precip type, although some light freezing rain continues to look possible wrn Osage and Pawnee counties before changing to snow. Given warm surface wet bulb temps over those areas, and expectation that freezing temps delayed until nearly the end of the precip, only foresee minor impacts.
H85 temperatures are progged to continue to warm with some above freezing temperatures mainly in the west and south today. At this time the fog is not anticipated to be dense, but with the freezing temperatures could create ice covered vehicles for Monday morning. Winds are expected to stay below 10 mph on Monday making for a pleasant afternoon before nocturnal temperatures fall well below freezing once again.
1249 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2023 High pressure will maintain dry weather into Sunday morning before a low pressure system produces widespread rain through early morning Monday.
(Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery currently shows the UL trough tracking from the central High Plains early this morning where it is expected to enter the Midwest region by this afternoon. We will begin to make the transition back into a dry and quiet pattern for the short term as we lose all jet flow dynamics with the exiting trough and zonal flow prevailing. The secondary cold front has made its way through the area as of 12 AM CST with north winds prevailing.
Discussion: For this afternoon and overnight, water vapor imagery shows a positively tilted trough moving into northeastern Colorado. This becomes more of a rain/snow mix at onset further south where the low-levels have warmed above freezing. But once precipitation begins to fall through this layer, soundings quickly wet-bulb below freezing with snow then quickly becoming the prevailing precipitation type. Beyond this round of winter weather, Monday through the middle of the week looks quiet with cooler to near normal temperatures.
(Today through Monday) The advertised cold front has worked its way through much of the northern half of the state as of this writing and will eventually push south of the CWA through the morning hours. Nevertheless, strong cold air advection will likely bring temperatures down into the 30s for most areas north of San Antonio for Monday morning, and to the low 40s for areas to the south.
This will help evaporate/sublimate some roadways early this morning, but slick spots will still be possible through the morning hours where we saw mainly rain and freezing rain. Across northern/western portions of Oklahoma, where some of the higher snowfall totals occurred, roads will definitely be an issue even into tonight, especially those that are untreated. North to northwest winds expected to pick up through the morning as we begin to mix into stronger flow, but they should subside this afternoon and especially this evening as low level ridge moves over Oklahoma and northern Texas.
(Today through Monday) Much warmer this morning across the midstate than the past few mornings with current temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s thanks to light southeast winds. The warmer temps and light winds are occurring due to weak WAA ahead of an approaching upper trough axis that will bring light rain to the area today. After the rain exits Middle Tennessee this evening, a cold front will sweep through and usher in much colder and dry weather for Monday.
There is still some light snow falling over the high mountains and along the divide. Satellite pictures show the upper low circulation just east of the northeast corner of Colorado. Will keep a few pops in the high mountains through this evening, then dry the rest of the night and Sunday. A weak upper level ridge will move across the west through midweek.
131 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 * A cold front will move into the region through the day Sunday, bringing light rain to the region.
There is still some light snow falling over the high mountains and along the divide. Satellite pictures show the upper low circulation just east of the northeast corner of Colorado. Will keep a few pops in the high mountains through this evening, then dry the rest of the night and Sunday.
1052 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level trough and cold front are expected to move through the area overnight tonight. The lift associated with the upper level trough will be better to our north, but we'll see light showers here and there this afternoon and evening, prior to the front moving through. Temperatures will drop behind the front, putting some areas in the northern part of our area near freezing. Skies will clear slightly behind the front on Sunday, allowing for some solar heating, which will help keep temperatures slightly warmer than they otherwise would be behind the front.
*There may or may not be some lingering flurries in the highway 20 corridor through late afternoon.
243 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Key Messages: * Temperatures will be a little warmer today with highs in the 30s, but very windy. * Temperatures trend warmer through the middle of the week starting Monday.
(Today through Monday Night) Scattered rain is moving NE across the area early this SUn morning ahead of a cold front. This cold front will push SE into the state by sunrise. with breezy NW winds ushering much drier and somewhat cooler air to the state for this afternoon.
947 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) An Upper trough that extends from ND down across CO and AZ will swing east across the Rockies today and move onto the Central Plains tonight. As it does the tail of the trough will sweep across NM and the TX Panhandle. The trough will move east Sunday into the MS River Valley as high pressure grows along the West Coast. A cold front pushed into the region yesterday but is beginning to lift back to the north this afternoon. Temperatures will remain below normal with lows tonight at freezing or below across the nrn CWA.
(Today through Monday) The stalled frontal boundary will begin to gradually lift northwards across the FL Peninsula as a warm front. With the passage, South FL afternoon highs will trend warmer, and above normal, reaching the mid 80s across the region. The warmer temperature trend will continue with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. South Florida will remain in the warm sector of a low pressure system moving across the FL Panhandle into the Atlantic. Models indicate that the low will stay far enough north to keep the region dry and warm, with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 80s.
The upper-level flow remains flat and predominantly zonal in the vicinity of the FL peninsula with a sprawling ridge over the Caribbean and a trough propagating through the Midwest. At the surface, a warm front is beginning to lift northward over the FL peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. That becomes especially likely as instability increases along the warm front through the day. As the trough axis propagates eastward through today and into tomorrow, an attendant cold front pushes south, bringing a cooler and drier airmass back to the FL peninsula once more.
1047 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 * A cold front will move into the region through the day Sunday, bringing light rain to the region.
This wave also progresses east quickly today into this evening, with a trailing speed shear generated vorticity trough that drops into the TN valley. Most of the CAMs bring the rainfall from west to east in a narrowing band from 15-21Z today, followed by the cold frontal passage and perhaps a few more light showers.
Meanwhile, an area of low pressure develops in the western Gulf and then shifts eastward along the stalled boundary extending across the Gulf into south FL. Daily high temperatures for the forecast period will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with warmer temperatures occurring over northeast Florida.
Archer An upper ridge is expected be in place over the western US.
1128 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: -Cold front to bring cooler temperatures Sunday afternoon. A weak coastal trough will continue to give us a few light showers/drizzle into this evening and move northeast as a cold front approaches Deep South Texas the northwest. On Sunday, a cold font will move through Deep South Texas bringing with it a slight chance of rain, mainly across the lower Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon and evening. Tonight will remain fairly mild with lows in the low to mid 60s. Highs will top out in the upper 60s in the northern Ranchlands to the low 70s across the Valley around midday then fall through the afternoon. Temperatures overnight Sunday will be a good 10-15 degrees cooler than tonight with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
117 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2023 High pressure slides eastward this morning. Showers arrive this this afternoon and tonight with a cold front. A high pressure system will slide off to the east this morning as a cold front approaches the area. Showers in advance of the cold front will arrive in southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and western West Virginia this afternoon. Some of the higher elevations of the northern West Virginia mountains could see a half inch of snow by daybreak Monday. A system will be moving through the region at the start of the period, with rain late Sunday night, changing over to light snow by Monday morning with passage of a cold front. Light accumulations of around an inch are possible across the higher terrain of the northern mountains during the period.
1240 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2023 (06Z TAFS) There is higher uncertainty than usual in TAF forecasts, but as a warm front lifts northward, MVFR CIGs are favored to settle in. While a cold front is expected on Monday, the arrival looks late enough to favor MVFR to potentially IFR and even LIFR overnight Sunday night into Monday morning.
1021 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 (Tonight) Quiet weather is expected tonight as the focus continues to be an approaching trough currently impacting the Plains states. Low temperatures remain near to slightly above normal dropping into the low to mid 40s across most locations. Otherwise, clouds will increase near sunrise as the trough and associated frontal boundary begin to push into the region with increasing rain chances holding off until after sunrise tomorrow.
75 Previous short-term discussion: (Tonight through Sunday night) Easterly to southeasterly flow at the surface has begun across Central Alabama in response to the ridge of high pressure centered along the eastern seaboard. Radiational cooling should allow temperatures to drop off into the lower 40s before clouds increase after daybreak. Mostly mid-level clouds will enter in from the southwest Sunday morning as an upper level trough ejects eastward over the central CONUS. A cold front will move into northwestern Alabama by Sunday evening, ushering in colder and drier air by Monday.
126 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2023 High pressure will maintain dry weather into Sunday morning before a low pressure system produces widespread rain through early morning Monday.