Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This line of storms will run into the higher BL moisture across Kansas and should strengthen in intensity. In the meantime, upslope flow behind the front will continue this afternoon and evening, particularly for the high plains of Colorado into western Kansas. As a result of this flow, afternoon storms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of Colorado. Here, higher MUCAPE will be possible in association with the higher dews.
723 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 High pressure will remain across the region into Sunday night. Slow moving low pressure will pass south of the region during the early part of the week bringing the next chance of rain. High pressure will result in light and variable winds. The center of the high will move further east but its influence will persist. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Anomalous upper level ridging builds across the upper Midwest and Hudson Bay region for the work week. Simultaneously, a weak upper level cutoff low is forecast to form south of the ridge near or south of the Tennessee Valley.
721 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 An unsettled pattern persists and we will likely see much of the same activity we have observed the past few days as an upper ridge over Texas is helping to steer embedded disturbances towards our area.
Multiple rounds of reverse cloud lines came to life with the most active cloud line downwind of the Lower Keys causing the most headaches. The longest duration reported was of a waterspout north of the east end of the Seven Mile Bridge that lasted 30 minutes before dissipating. From synopsis, ridging over the northwest Bahamas and Straits of Florida will result in mainly gentle to moderate southwesterly breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the weekend.
Dry, warmer weather is expected with windy conditions Sunday and Monday. A return to fair weather conditions across northern Arizona today in the wake of the trough passage this morning. Some fair weather cumulus have developed over the high country with west to northwesterly breezes just beginning. The stronger winds will arrive Monday as a deepening trough moves into the northwest U. This will limit critical fire weather in some of the higher elevations (due to RH), but we anticipate some areas of critical fire weather being possible and have issued a corresponding Fire Weather Watch for Monday.
As noted previously, RH values will drop to the lower to mid 20s across the northern zones where dry conditions in the jack pine forest areas will have to be monitored for fire weather potential. Aloft, a building ridge from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes will hover overhead and as heights rise, so will surface temperatures.
Current temperatures are in the upper 50s to 70s in the Delta, Valley and foothills, and in the low 50s to 60s in the mountains, as of 130 AM PDT.
Low pressure will develop across the region and then prevail into late week. Otherwise, pretty typical mid June night with lows only falling into the low 70s in many locations.
204 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure will build down into and over the region for today through Sunday.
Upper level ridge will amplify today and help clear clouds somewhat across the region. Highs across the forecast area will be in the 100s with the higher elevations or the northern most portions of the Permian Basin sitting just under 100F. Lows overnight will be on the mild side again and be in the low to mid 70s for most.
The lows will exit across the Maritimes Sunday through Monday.
On Sunday, an eastward moving upper trough will be on approach. Sunday night, a good chance of showers will be in play as the trough axis moves over the cwa.
245 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Short Term Upper ridging prevails today through Monday. Aloft, a building ridge from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes will hover overhead and as heights rise, so will surface temperatures.
Highs look to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s, with cooler readings near the shore of Lake Michigan.
For Sunday and Monday, an upper ridge will build over the area from the southern plains, resulting in dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Highs on Sunday will reach the upper 80s and highs on Monday will reach the lower to middle 90s.
131 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Upper and surface ridging across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians overnight through much of Sunday. (This evening through Sunday) A weak ridge and high pressure will be over the region tonight through tomorrow morning. Tomorrow afternoon a weak trough will creep towards the region bringing increasing rain chances mainly after this forecast period.
148 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure will build down into and over the region for today through Sunday.
Warmer and mostly dry next work week. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is expected later this morning as the well defined and compact upper low moves in from the west. Ensemble guidance then shows a high amplitude ridge building across the central US, which will bring warmer than normal and mostly dry conditions to the area through the work week.
Doe Lake and Highbridge RAWS sites are the primary exceptions with RH values of 11% and 18% at 18Z, respectively. Warm and dry conditions settle in for most of the forecast period with high pressure in place. Any convection wraps up into Sunday night, then dry weather and clearing skies are expected Monday as the ridge builds in again. By late Monday and through a majority of the coming week, guidance suggests the ridge axis will extend from near Mexico upwards into our region, keeping the dry airmass overhead.
The mere presence of low pressure this time of year, with dew points recovered into the 60s and max temps in the 80s, will be sufficient lift assistance for showers/storms. 80s/60s the rule both days but higher Sunday max temps before clouds/convection chances mute the higher amplitude of mercury numbers as well as the diurnal swing. The near proximity of the aforementioned low pressure will result in a continuation of daily pops. These pops simply cannot be ruled out due to the lingering and retrogression of the low thru the week.
1250 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Dry weather and gradually warming temperatures are expected for the weekend into Monday under a high pressure ridge aloft.
419 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure will build down over the region today, then slides off the coast for this evening through Monday.
(Sunday through Monday night) Latest model suites are still pointing to an upper trough axis rotating eastward thru the mid/southern Plains on Sun, before settling more into the OH/TN Valley states Sun night into Mon. Model runs are also still hinting at an MCS like feature developing with the approaching upper trough pattern Sun night into Mon. Uncertainty remains with the exact movement/timing of this tstm complex, with the higher prob for strong/severe tstms located WSW of the area. Highs then look to trend more in the lower/mid 80s on Mon given the increase in clouds/rainfall. The upper trough axis invof the mid TN Valley looks to become cutoff Mon night, maintaining at least a medium/high chance (40-60%) of showers/tstms in the forecast, with the higher prob located across NE AL.
229 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Low pressure continues to spin just off to the southeast of Sioux Falls this morning. Warm air advection will build across the Missouri valley as upper ridging pushes in from the south tonight.
334 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Low pressure will develop across the region early this week and then prevail into late week. Through the rest of the night the pattern aloft will turn increasingly more cyclonic as a developing upper low begins to shift toward the Tennessee Valley.
244 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure will build down over the region today, then slides off the coast for this evening through Monday.
321 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure will bring sunshine and seasonable temperatures today with light winds.
The heat wave begins the work week as a ridge in the southern plains sets up, and our highs shoot up to the low 90s for Monday afternoon as a result.
Little to no change for the high temps this afternoon. Under mostly cloudy to partly sunny conditions, temps will warm into the low to mid 80s away from Lake Michigan.
As initial upper level ridging this morning gives way to broad upper level troughing influences as tonight into Monday progress, a closed low is expected to form to our northwest and shift southeastward into our area as tonight into Monday progresses also.
338 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be warmer temperatures and another round of showers/storms west and north central tonight. Currently, west/southwest flow aloft with a S/WV ridge over the Great Lakes region and a large area of low pressure developing into the Pacific Northwest. A surface boundary will be driven east across western ND this evening by lead embedded waves rotating and ejecting out of the large upper low across the Pacific NW.
108 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure remains in control of our weather through Monday. Low pressure drifts from the Tennessee Valley through the Southeast the rest of the week, but high pressure over New England is expected to remain our dominant weather feature.
258 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Morning Discussion: Today into tonight: Current radar from Great Falls indicates showers moving across western MT, which will eventually reach northeast MT by early afternoon as the upper level trough moves into the intermountain west.
Upper level ridging strengthens over the Plains states on Monday, keeping the better upper jet energy and associated dynamics west of the Plains. 850 mb temperatures will warm much more up to the upper teens along the highway-59 corridor to the mid to upper 20s towards central South Dakota. The low level jet will strengthen overnight, keeping breezy winds going through the night. This will keep warmer temperatures overnight, keeping lows confined to the mid 60s to low 70s.
(Today) The high-end severe wind that blasted through parts of northeast OK and northwest AR has exited the area into southwest MO. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s are expected.
434 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure will remain across the region today offering dry weather and warmer temperatures.
928 PM PDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Cooler and breezy conditions Sunday and Monday with increasing marine layer low clouds and fog. By Sunday, effects from the developing trough along the West Coast will become noticeable. In addition to cooler conditions, gusty westerly winds will begin to strengthen on Sunday afternoon. Monday will be a cooler day with increased cloud coverage and the potential for morning drizzle at the coast and locally into the western valleys.
An upper low cuts off and spins to our west by Monday, which starts to increase the rain chances. Instead our return flow is more associated with weak low pressure developing well to our west. Highs will rise into the low 90s away from ocean influence where they will be capped in the mid 80s along the coast and low 80s beaches.
246 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure maintains dry weather through tonight. A slow moving upper low brings the chance for showers and storms back for much of the new work week, depending upon where it moves. High pressure will continue to bring dry weather throughout the day, and fair weather cumulus is again likely to form during the afternoon. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s across much of the CWA, and upper 60s to around 80 in the higher elevations of the northeast mountains. High pressure slides off to the east allowing an upper low to encroach on our area. Active weather does not leave our vicinity as the upper low positions itself just south of the area by Monday night.
A bit warmer this aftn within deeply subsident upper ridge axis and reflected in warming 850mb thermal ridge. Similar case on Monday esp east where greater mixing anticipated newd of closing upper low over wrn KY. Wrn KY upper low will settle swd to near the Gulf Coast by late Wed while upper ridge builds dramatically across the Great Lakes. Otherwise compressional warming under upper ridge will accentuate thermal ridge with 90s temps likely mid to late week as drought induced feedback loop is realized within daily diurnal ranges.
(Today and tonight) The upper trough that brought the isolated severe weather to portions of the forecast area yesterday will depart to the east this morning. A weak upper ridge will build in behind the trough, bringing quiet conditions today.
Lows to be several degrees warmer than last night, primarily in the lower 60s.
406 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure will build down over the region today, then slides off the coast for this evening through Monday.
The chances for showers and storms will continue to increase into the overnight as forcing associated with the impulse continues to shift eastward and a surface warm front lifts northward.
(Today and tonight) A tightly wound upper low is currently moving east through southern Kansas. An outflow boundary/cold front is moving south into our area this morning, which will turn winds to the north across areas north of Interstate 20 between now and sunrise, and will continue south, likely stalling in our southern counties later today. This will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler in the Big Country today with highs mainly in the mid 90s.
There will remain a northwesterly mid/upper level flow around the northeastern periphery of the H5 ridge centered across northern Mexico. Going into Monday, QPF signal slightly decreases across the region as the upper flow begins to veer to a more northerly direction ahead of a developing upper level low over the lower Ohio River Valley.
Cooler temperatures and light precipitation will be ushered in by an upstream disturbance, which could also bring lightning to the area early in the week.
705 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Aviation Upper ridging prevails today through Monday. A building ridge and high pressure / anticyclone development will encompass much of the Great Lakes region while low pressure sits over the southeast US.
935 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure will bring sunshine and seasonable temperatures today with light winds.
Showers and thunderstorms will affect much of the Midsouth today, downstream of an upper level low approaching from the central plains. The upper low will stall over the Tennessee Valley through mid to late week.
Precipitation is not expected today or Monday across the High Plains. H850 temperatures will be on the increase with the change in the low level winds and these H850 temperatures may reach the low 30s C across the west this afternoon. This will allow the surface temperatures to be similar to yesterday if not a few degrees warmer in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Main change synoptically going into Monday will be the ridge amplifies and the Panhandles will be under its influence, which keeps the area dry today and tomorrow.
646 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure will remain across the region today offering dry weather and warmer temperatures.
Models continue to support a warmer and drier day across the area, as flow aloft becomes more west to southwest with upper level ridging building into the region. This will allow for warmer and drier air, in place across the Desert SW and Southern Rockies, to continue to filter into the region. Latest model data supports modest westerly breezes and some afternoon cumulus over and near the higher terrain, with warmer air aloft limiting deep moist convection. This will also lead to temperatures warming to more early summer norms, with highs mainly in 80s across the plains, and in the 50s to lower 70s across the higher terrain. Temperatures tonight to slowly cool to around seasonal norms in the 50s across the plains and in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain, under mainly clear skies.
550 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 (Today and tonight) A tightly wound upper low is currently moving east through southern Kansas. An outflow boundary/cold front is moving south into our area this morning, which will turn winds to the north across areas north of Interstate 20 between now and sunrise, and will continue south, likely stalling in our southern counties later today. This will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler in the Big Country today with highs mainly in the mid 90s.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be warmer temperatures and another round of showers/storms west and north central tonight. Currently, west/southwest flow aloft with a S/WV ridge over the Great Lakes region and a large area of low pressure developing into the Pacific Northwest. A surface boundary will be driven east across western ND this evening by lead embedded waves rotating and ejecting out of the large upper low across the Pacific NW.
616 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Low pressure continues to spin just off to the southeast of Sioux Falls this morning. Warm air advection will build across the Missouri valley as upper ridging pushes in from the south tonight.
1026 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure will remain across the region today offering dry weather and warmer temperatures.
Local mesoanalysis data indicates significant instability across Wrn AR and the ARKLATEX, w/ a strong gradient oriented from N/W to S/E over the lower Red River Valley.
613 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper trough that brought the isolated severe weather to portions of the forecast area yesterday will depart to the east this morning. A weak upper ridge will build in behind the trough, bringing quiet conditions today.
750 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure will bring sunshine and seasonable temperatures today with light winds.
650 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will affect much of the Midsouth today, downstream of an upper level low approaching from the central plains. The upper low will stall over the Tennessee Valley through mid to late week.
An incoming upper low will bring a much cooler and wetter pattern to the area today into Monday. The upper low is currently centered over the coast of British Columbia. Models and ensembles continue to show this low moving southward and becoming centered over the region tonight and Monday. Cold air advection will result in much cooler than normal temperatures on Monday (around 20 degrees below normal for this time of year). Shower combined with the lower snow levels, will bring chances (25-50%) for light snow of around 1 to 2 inches in the Southern Oregon Cascades, mainly above 4500 feet elevation.
Warmer temperatures with no thunderstorms expected over the forecast area. A zonal flow aloft today with a ridge of high pressure over CO. High temperatures today will warm back to seasonal normals, in the lower 80s.
Southeast winds should increase somewhat this afternoon, with highs in the lower to middle 80s inland, and 70s near the lake. Highs look to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s, with cooler readings near the shore of Lake Michigan.
609 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 (Today) The high-end severe wind that blasted through parts of northeast OK and northwest AR has exited the area into southwest MO. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s are expected.
Temperatures are generally in the low 70s across the area currently, but will warm to the mid and upper 80s by late this afternoon. The chances for showers and storms will continue to increase into the overnight as forcing associated with the impulse continues to shift eastward and a surface warm front lifts northward.
940 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Low pressure will develop across the region early this week and then prevail into late week. Through the rest of the night the pattern aloft will turn increasingly more cyclonic as a developing upper low begins to shift toward the Tennessee Valley.
However, gusty winds are expected to develop today, and be even stronger on Monday as a deep area of low pressure settles over the Pacific Northwest. Associated cold front already lies across northwest Nevada and northern California. Ensemble simulations remain in good agreement digging this low down the coast into Oregon Monday. The only chance for precipitation will be near the cold front across far northern Lincoln County Monday afternoon/evening.
726 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Low pressure will develop across the region early this week and then prevail into late week. Through the rest of the night the pattern aloft will turn increasingly more cyclonic as a developing upper low begins to shift toward the Tennessee Valley.
This morning's sounding looks to have retained much of the low level moisture from yesterday despite showers passing through overnight with total PW slightly above climatological average. The low level southwesterly wind profile is favorable for another cloud line outbreak starting sometime this afternoon and into this evening. From synopsis, ridging over the northwest Bahamas and Straits of Florida will result in mainly gentle to moderate southwesterly breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters today. The ridge is expected to lift northward and into the western North Atlantic late tonight through Monday, resulting in light to gentle breezes.
For the upcoming week, the upper trough will linger across the SE U. early as an upper low drops Sward from the Great Lakes mid to late week to keep deep SW flow over the E Gulf and FL Peninsula. While at the surface, high pressure will remain in the Florida Straits as several frontal boundaries slowly move across the N Gulf Coast and Deep South to keep low level southwest to westerly flow in place.
Warmer and mostly dry conditions next work week. Overnight lows look to drop into the low 60s. (Monday through Sunday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Ensemble guidance continues to be in good agreement in building a high amplitude ridge across the central U. Daily high temperatures range from the low 90s across the west to the mid 80s across the eastern Ozarks in closer proximity to the upper- level low.
349 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Slow-moving low pressure will push into Kentucky tonight and tomorrow and then stall before shifting south.
247 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Finally feels like summer today across the area, as temps rise into the 80s at many lower elevation locations, while gusty south to southwest winds surface over especially the high valleys as mixing increases. A few shallow cumulus have popped over the higher terrain, though doubtful they'll develop enough to produce any precip given drier air spreading into the region. Upper level ridge continues to build overnight and Monday as it shifts eastward into the central plains. As mid-level temps rise and mixing deepens, max temps will soar on Monday, and expect widespread 90s on the plains, with perhaps some mid/upper 90s across the lower Arkansas Valley. NBM numbers seemed a little too cool for high temps on Mon, so nudged up maxes toward warmer ECMWF statistical guidance, especially at lower elevations.
Surface cold front marching through East Idaho today. Frontal boundary retrogrades north again early Monday as mid level 700mb flow strengthens over Nevada ahead of trough axis and second cold front. Band of precipitation over southeast corner intensifies ahead of second cold front through the day before gradually weakening overnight Monday night.
305 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 CIRA Geocolor was revealing a fantastic display of a conductively induced vorticity max within a broad scale trough. The cirrus shield in southwest flow, ahead of this low, has thinned some and has not limited the temperature recovery. The upper trough will move to southeastern Missouri by 00z and near Evansville by 12z Monday after which it will drift south over western Kentucky. Increase in clouds will limit the temperature drop tonight with overnight lows only in the lower and mid 60s. Higher confidence northern sections will see near seasonable highs in the lower and mid 80s.
This afternoon looks to see at least the low 80s but also capped in how warm things get with mid/upper 80s showing up at the NBM 75th percentile.