Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
pdf High pressure centered to the north this evening, will become more centered to the northwest overnight, as the inverted coastal trough strengthens and begins to lift east northeast. Lows will range from the mid 40s across inland SE GA, to the lower 60s for coastal NE FL.
A weak surface cyclone will move from the lee side of the Rockies into the Panhandles Friday evening and overnight, which will result in light and variable winds through portions of western Oklahoma and northern Texas.
934 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 High pressure will continue across the area tonight. The hi-res models are struggling with the higher values across the southern CWA this evening. Considering the mixing down of dry air aloft, I once again ran on the low side of guidance for dewpoints. Temperatures could be close to freezing in some areas where the frost/freeze program is still active, and a Frost Advisory has been issued in areas were frost formation is most likely (from Troup county as far east as Warren county and as far northeast as Banks county) from 2 AM until 10 AM on Saturday morning. Broad mid level troughing will remain in place over the eastern CONUS into Saturday.
740 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A weakening cold front will bring an increase in cloud cover to start the weekend.
724 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A large ridge of high pressure from the North Atlantic through the southeast United States to the western Gulf of Mexico will keep our weather quiet tonight. cooler in the usual sheltered cold spots and warmer in urban cores. On Saturday a very weak cold front will approach from the northwest but will lack significant low level moisture and only result in partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Areas of LIFR/IFR in fog/stratus in the lower valleys through Saturday morning, improving to MVFR/VFR after 04/18Z.
446 PM MDT Fri Nov 3 2023 Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are a partly to mostly sunny mix as high clouds continue to move over the CWA post- cold front. Weak CAA behind the boundary is allowing for temps as of 200 PM MDT to range from the upper 60s into the lower 70s.
With that said though, minor downsloping winds will develop along the leeward side of the eastern mountains, allowing for a belt of slightly warmer temperatures around these areas. Synoptically, a ridge will push eastward over the area, bringing an increase in subsidence. Looking at temperatures, a slight cool down is anticipated given a weak cold front passage Friday, but temperatures will still remain around 5Â°F above seasonal values.
At the surface, high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic States is expected to retrograde across the Gulf South today into tonight. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the 60s, except for the lower 70s at the beaches. High pressure will remain centered across the Louisiana and into the northern Gulf through the weekend.
Discussion: We remain in a pattern with westerly winds aloft and low-level ridging centered across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Because of these increasing 850mb winds, 15 to 25 kt WNW winds will be possible tonight above the boundary layer inversion across the higher terrain of the mountains.
Expect a mild day with sunny skies and near normal temperatures in the lower to middle 40s. This will mean an increase in cloud cover overnight and some warmer overnight temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s for most. Finally on Sunday, warm air advection continues to increase aloft ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Today will look similar to yesterday, with temperatures a few degrees higher as thicknesses increase and southerly surface winds continue in response to lee troughing to the north. The front won't be very impactful, but temperatures Sunday afternoon may be a few degrees cooler compared to Saturday for those along and north of the I-20 corridor.
That being said, temperatures have overachieved the past couple days, as the departing high pressure led to increased mixing across the area. Breezy conditions will continue through the remainder of the afternoon, with the higher sustained winds/gusts along and northwest of I-44. With ensembles trending drier and the gusty winds continuing, some elevated fire weather conditions are expected for the remainder of the afternoon/early evening, mainly where relative humidity values dip into the low 30% range. Saturday-Sunday: An upper level ridge builds in from the west over the weekend, bringing mild conditions on Saturday and Sunday. Highs in the low 60s (towards central Missouri) to upper 60s (warmest towards the AR/MO border) is expected on Saturday.
Fair weather is forecast from mid morning through the rest of the day as a high pressure ridge gradually builds in from the northwest. Dry weather will continue tonight through most of Sunday with the ridge still in control of the wx pattern. The low will track well off to our north however, sliding east across Lake Superior into Ontario.
1153 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 (Rest of tonight) A weak mid-level disturbance embedded within the subtropical jet will shift eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico overnight, as an amplifying northern stream trough digs southeastward across the northern High Plains. A ribbon of widespread mid/high-level cloudiness extending well downstream from the trough should largely remain north of the local CWFA overnight, even as winds aloft back to the west and strengthen into the 25-35 knot range. Thus, we are expecting another night of strong radiational cooling across the TN Valley, with lows adjusted to reflect 33-37F in outlying communities, and 37-41F in urban locations and atop the Cumberland Plateau (lows will be even a few degrees warmer than this range in the immediate vicinity of large bodies of water).
344 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 Key Messages: 1) Temperatures will continue to increase through mid-week until a cold front takes us back to normal. 2) The next best chance (30-50%) for measurable rainfall will arrive with the mid-week cold front. A weak cold front associated with passing mid-level vorticity maxima currently extends from west central Illinois southwest through central Missouri. Otherwise, today will be another warm day with widespread 60s forecast despite this morning's cold frontal passage and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Skies will clear overnight tonight and winds will lighten tonight as high pressure moves into the area.
147 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 High pressure to the north and a stalled boundary across the Florida Straits is keeping a tighter pressure gradient across the local area, bringing some gusty NE winds in the afternoon and evening.
High pressure to the east is bringing warmer air across the state on southerly winds. Afternoon highs on Saturday and Sunday will top out in the 70's in most areas, although temperatures will be a bit cooler across the far north.
Due to the warmer temperatures Sunday, fire weather conditions will be elevated to near-critical.
A frontal boundary was east of the area early this morning as high pressure built southeastward into the upper Midwest. The high pressure will build southward over the area today providing the area with light winds and plenty of sunshine. Highs will be in the lower 50s along Highway 20 with upper 50s and low 60s south of I-80. Light or calm winds and mostly clear skies will be prevalent across the area tonight as the high builds directly over the area.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler across the north as a result.
348 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 Temperatures will gradually warm this weekend as high pressure overspreads the area. Only fly in the ointment so to speak will be the onshore movement of altocu and possibly stratocu clouds this morning as a coastal trof, aka inverted sfc trof, makes it's closest approach, still remaining offshore, to the Carolina Coasts. Skies should improve tonight as an approaching positively tilted mid-level trof, helps drive the coastal trof, and developing low pressure, back well offshore by sunrise Sun. Otherwise, light N winds continue with temps a bit warmer than Saturday. highs Sunday in the low/mid 70s, with lows Sunday night ranging through the 40s.
H500 ridge axis over the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia this afternoon will translate east and over the Northern Rockies through Saturday morning. Ahead of this eastwards advancing ridge, weak jet dynamics in addition to weak mid- to upper level frontogenesis orientated over Southwest Montana will help to support the potential for isolated to scattered light rain, mainly along and south of the I-90 corridor through 03z this evening. As the upper level ridge axis translates east tonight, strong warm air advection aloft will lead to increasing upper level cloudiness across all of Southwest through North Central Montana, which will help to keep overnight low temperatures in the mid-20s to mid-30s across most lower elevations.
High pressure will otherwise remain in place today and tomorrow from the Mid-Atlantic and central/southern Appalachians.
Surface ridging will remain across portions of E Conus, but it is expected to weaken a little through the short term.
1229 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 High pressure at the surface will remain in control through the short term forecast period. An upper trough is apparent both in forecast guidance and water vapor imagery near and just west of the ArkLaMiss this afternoon. This trough is progressing through a very dry air mass and despite the lift is unlikely to result in more than some thin cirrus at best through tonight. On the back side of the departing upper trough, skies will remain clear under increased subsidence aloft allowing for full sun and a quick rebound in temperatures on Saturday.
1247 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 Another cold night shaping up this evening after highs today reached the lower to mid 60s. At mid evening the temperatures were in the 40s with calm winds and expected to drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s by early morning Saturday, slightly warmer than this mornings lows. Saturday should be similar to today but a couple degrees warmer in the south. The low RH values for tomorrow afternoon will be highlighted in the FWF.
1202 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 (Tonight through Sunday night) The short term package is calm and dry weather as high pressure is driving our weather pattern. Aloft an upper-level high pressure system is meandering to the east.
Winds will continue to gradually weaken as high pressure continues to move down the east coast. Expect overnight lows across SE AL and SW GA to be in the mid to upper 40s with our FL counties in the low to mid 50s. (Saturday night through Sunday night) Upper level trough will pass overhead this upcoming weekend and aside from a brief increase in upper level clouds, no rain is expected from this next disturbance. The remainder of the weekend will be highlighted by light winds and a return to northerly flow behind the upper level trough. Temperatures will remain relatively steady with highs in the upper 70s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s with Sunday night possibly being a few degrees cooler as drier air and clear skies move in.
A couple layers of clouds may linger on Saturday, some stratocumulus in the lower levels and patches of altostratus, though with any luck some partial sunshine will be present. Surface cold front moves though overnight with some moisture to work with as precipitable water values briefly spike up to about 0. Zonal flow will transition to more of a troughy pattern over the Great Lakes by the end of the week. Strong southwest flow ahead of the low will result in breezy conditions Sunday night. Light rain will develop in the warm advection pattern over northern Lower and then move south as the cold front approaches.
Did increase PoPs some for this afternoon/early evening based on this low qpf. Upper height rises Saturday as ridge begins to build back into the CWA. Slightly warmer Saturday over today's highs with low to mid 60s east of Laramie Range.
1247 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 (Tonight through Saturday night) Warming trend will continue into Saturday as a weak upper level ridge builds into the region.
Winds will be light under high pressure, with high temps within a couple degrees of normal this afternoon.
320 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the Southeast states to the Mid Atlantic Coast through Saturday. A weak and mainly dry cold frontal passage will occur Saturday night into early Sunday.
1127 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the Southeast states to the Mid Atlantic Coast through Saturday. A weak and mainly dry cold frontal passage will occur Saturday night into early Sunday.
There is quite a bit of mid/upper level moisture in the form of trapped waves but rather moisture starved in the low levels. Cross sections show some mountain top level moisture so a few light snow showers may be to get squeezed out over the higher elevations tonight and early Saturday morning in the orographic w/nw flow. During the day on Saturday, high pressure ridge aloft will build into Western Colorado during the day with a bit weaker flow aloft and a drier airmass. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Saturday compared to today with a slight bump up in 700 mb temperatures. The ridge aloft flattens on Sunday with an increasing westerly flow aloft with the jet core of 125kt further north across Wyoming.
Westerly surface winds are not expected to occur until Sunday morning, so it is possible the low clouds/fog do not dissipate until after 12Z Sunday morning. The main form will likely be rain beside a low (15%) chance of freezing rain/drizzle in and around the ND/MT/SK border; temperatures appear to be most likely to drop below freezing in this area.
334 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 Key Points: - Slightly cooler today with light rain/sprinkles possible during the afternoon. Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows persistent cyclonic flow over much of the eastern CONUS, ridging over the Great Basin and a deep low off the PNW coast. Increasing subsidence behind the trough axis will begin to scatter out cloud cover into Sunday morning with lows dropping down into the low to mid 40s. By Sunday afternoon, flow returns back to the south as weak mid- level ridging builds into the central Plains. This should allow temperatures to once again warm into the low 70s Sunday afternoon.
1234 AM MDT Sat Nov 4 2023 Induced upper level ridging has built in across the CWA ahead of another wave of Pacific moisture coming down from the GOA. The long wave trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen throughout the day with increasing divergence aloft. The PFJ looks to dip south to enhance the vort max of the trough that will push some mid level moisture into the western CWA west of the Divide. Otherwise, a cold front will drop quickly through the CWA into Sunday that will drop temperatures a couple of degrees and still above average, but the main impact being that of increased winds due to a tightened gradient.
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show mid-level ridging over the Pacific NW n thru BC and broad troffing downstream over central and eastern N America, resulting in wnw flow across the Upper Great Lakes early this morning. At the sfc, high pres centered in nw MN is ridging ene, just to the n of Lake Superior. Short wave trough zips across the forecast area Saturday night.
(Today) High pressure remains layered from the mid Atlantic states SW into the SE region this early Sat morning, while a near zonal flow pattern is in place aloft. This is translating into slightly warmer temps across the area compared to the last few mornings, with current temps mainly in the upper 30s/mid 40s. With sfc winds turning more to the S/SW later today, afternoon temps will also rebound some versus the last few days, with highs climbing more into the lower 70s/near 70F, under mostly sunny skies.
1030 PM MDT Fri Nov 3 2023 Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are a partly to mostly sunny mix as high clouds continue to move over the CWA post- cold front. Weak CAA behind the boundary is allowing for temps as of 200 PM MDT to range from the upper 60s into the lower 70s. Going into the upcoming weekend, the upper level flow will shift as the ridge to the west crests over the region Saturday, moving east on Sunday and flattening to zonal flow. Overnight lows this weekend will range from the mid 30s west into the lower and mid 40s east.
Highs on Sun will be a tad warmer in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Near-nil rain chances are expected for this period, as another area of high pressure builds across the Florida Peninsula. From synopsis, a strong high pressure system centered just off the Mid- Atlantic states will support moderate to fresh northeast breezes today.
On the cooler side, it was 41 in Monroe, surrounded by many lower 40s from Magnolia and Camden to Ruston. Lows overnight will continue trending warmer as well with far fewer 40s and lots of 50s to start the day.
500 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 A ridge of high pressure over the Mid Atlantic Piedmont and Coastal Plain will move slowly to the east today as a weak cold front stretched across the Lower Great Lakes drifts southeast into the Commonwealth early Sunday.
At this point, fog probs are on the lower side. Beyond this, not really much in term of weather on the "radar" today as high pressure continues to move into the area from the northeast. The gradual warming trend will continue today and again on Sunday as an upper ridge begins to build and allow height rises across the region in time promoting a continuation of the warming trend.
Overall weather conditions through Saturday will be mild, with temperatures running about 10 degrees above average and light winds for the lower elevations. Wind gusts 35 to 45 mph look to be common for most lower elevations, whereas 45 to 60 mph gusts prevail in the higher terrain.
A weak upper ridge moving in by Saturday will create drier conditions across the region through early Saturday, although a small (10-15%) chance of precipitation will linger near and over the mountains this evening due to weak instability in place. By Saturday evening, precip chances will begin to increase west of Billings as the ridge moves out and more moisture moves in. and widespread light rain across the lower elevations.
At the surface, high pressure is centered over Minnesota, with a weak trough to the east of the Rockies. Sunday will be warmer with highs ranging from the upper 50s over northwestern South Dakota to the lower 70s over the southwest. A cold front will cross the region on Sunday afternoon with a few showers possible, mainly over northeastern Wyoming, northwestern South Dakota and the northern Black Hills. With warm temperatures and deep mixing ahead of the approaching cold front, locally gusty westerly winds will develop across parts of northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota, where gusts around 40 mph will be possible. A brief period of gusty northwest winds is expected as the cold front moves through. Temperatures will gradually cool through the week with each passing cold front.
A weak surface cyclone was positioned over the northern Rolling Plains at 07z, with SSW surface flow over much of the Caprock and a moist upslope easterly component observed over the far SE TX Panhandle. A modest deepening of the aforementioned surface cyclone is expected this afternoon ahead of a weak southward-drifting frontal boundary across the central TX Panhandle into NW OK. The surface cyclone will drift eastward tonight as the frontal boundary washes out with seasonable low temperatures expected area-wide, but another bout of patchy overnight fog will be possible tonight over the SE TX Panhandle into the Rolling Plains with fairly rich surface moisture remaining in place through Sunday morning.
This will result in a continuation of moderating low temperatures and warmer afternoons. Low temperatures tonight generally in the low to mid 50s, highs Saturday in the mid 70s to low 80s, and lows Sunday morning in the mid 50s to around 60.
109 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023 Temperatures cool on track, having already fallen into the low to mid 50s as of the 02Z hour, bottoming out in the upper 30s and lower 40s northeast to mid to upper 40s southwest. This is already evident today, as temperatures are on pace to climb to near seasonal normals, with highs in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s areawide.
(Today through Sunday) A warm, dry zonal flow aloft and a moist southerly flow in the lower levels prevail this weekend.
Warming temperatures as well as increasing humidities will prevail through the weekend with the mid/upper level ridge building over the state and onshore winds persisting at the surface. but cannot rule out a few spots in the lower 80s possible. Mostly sunny skies along with the continued WAA should make for slightly warmer temperatures. to the lower 80s elsewhere land. Patchy fog is possible tomorrow night once again, with lows in the lower 60s (near 70 at the beaches).
- Mild Saturday, warm Sunday (100% chance) - Mild and quiet business week (80% chance) A sfc trof is analyzed across the FA this afternoon. This has resulted in light and variable winds for the FA as our area is under and in close proximity to the trof. The mentioned jet and associated trof will usher in a weak wind shift across the FA at the sfc.
Key Points: - Slightly cooler today with light rain/sprinkles possible during the afternoon. Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows persistent cyclonic flow over much of the eastern CONUS, ridging over the Great Basin and a deep low off the PNW coast. Increasing subsidence behind the trough axis will begin to scatter out cloud cover into Sunday morning with lows dropping down into the low to mid 40s. By Sunday afternoon, flow returns back to the south as weak mid- level ridging builds into the central Plains. This should allow temperatures to once again warm into the low 70s Sunday afternoon.
In the wake of the trough, northerly to northwesterly flow aloft will briefly return for the remainder of the period. At the surface, a large, sprawling ridge of high pressure centered over the Appalachians continues to stretch across the southeast US, helping to maintain a light northerly to northeasterly flow pattern across our area. Subsidence from this high, as well as a continued lack of deep-layer moisture (PWATs generally around 0. Lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 40s inland to the low 50s along the coast.
Details: Radar shows light rain moving into central Nebraska early Saturday morning, but this is battling dry air in the low levels, resulting in just sprinkles at the surface. Temperatures currently range from the low 30s in cloud-free areas of our northeast to the mid 40s in areas where clouds have already moved in.
(Rest of Today) Temperatures dropped to around freezing in some locations again earlier this morning. This is being helped by some stronger warm air advection ahead of a fairly amplified trough axis that will be moving into north central Missouri aloft. Forecast 925 mb temperatures continue to trend slightly warmer with the latest forecast.
624 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 A ridge of high pressure over the Mid Atlantic Piedmont and Coastal Plain will move slowly to the east today as a weak cold front stretched across the Lower Great Lakes drifts southeast into the Commonwealth early Sunday.
Temperatures will be near normal and remain in the low to mid 80s for highs. On Sunday, the stationary front will push to our south and sit over the Florida Straits as high pressure builds into the Gulf of Mexico. Surface winds will be coming from the north-northeast which will keep the low-level moisture in the region until the drier air arrives. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s, except SW FL which may trend warmer.