Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Sunday) A cold front has pushed through most of West Central Texas early this afternoon, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures and gusty north winds of 10 to 20 mph.
Under the regime of high pressure, warm air advection is taking place which has allowed temperatures to climb into the mid to upper-70s across the CWA. Warmer temperatures will be in place through the remainder of the day with assistance of a LLJ that's forecast to build into the region overnight tonight.
Weak ridging across the FL peninsula is breaking down as a trough axis propagates eastward through the Central Plains. An attendant cold front is expected across our area in response at the surface later tomorrow, with some showers and storms possible across the area along and ahead of the front. A brief northerly wind keeps things feeling more comfortable (but probably not a lot cooler) for a day or so.
Bumped highs up a degree or two as the area will be squeezed by the incoming low pressure system tonight. The cold front looks like it will pass through overnight tonight, really anytime after midnight.
Mid-level water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper trough axis swinging into the Southern Plains this afternoon. Despite clear skies, temperatures are nearly 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday with the breezy north surface winds.
(This evening through Sunday) Temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 30s (northwest Oklahoma) to the lower 40s (southern Oklahoma and north Texas). With clear skies and relatively light winds, radiational cooling may allow for some frost development in parts of northwest Oklahoma where temperatures are forecast to drop to near freezing.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday/ A robust cold front is progressing through the forecast area early this afternoon accompanied by a northwest wind shift and significant dewpoint drop. Should any storms be able to develop, they would be capable of becoming strong given the highly unstable and moderately sheared airmass in place.
158 PM PDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Tranquil weather will continue this weekend under a weak ridging.
1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 (The rest of today ) This morning, a cold front is just now entering western portions of the forecast area with the boundary near a KPNC-KCQB-KSRE line. There is also a pre-frontal trof just west of the Tulsa metro. However, the better chance of storms will be early to mid afternoon across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as the cold front surges to the east. Temperatures will be falling behind the cold front today creating a bit of a forecasting challenge.
124 PM MDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Across the region this morning, skies are currently cloudy as a broad 500mb trough continues to swing eastward off the Rockies. accompanying the low level cloud deck, is a mix of rain and snow showers aided by the caa from northerly surface flow. Temperatures are ranging widely from the lower 30s into the lower 40s. Going into today, models slowly trend the upper trough through the Plains region, while the cwa remains under a northerly surface flow.
This afternoon, the center of an upper level trough will cross the state, with cold temperatures moving in aloft creating shallow instability over western North Dakota. High pressure at the surface will build in from the west behind the trough, while the east will remain under the influence of the exiting low with breezy conditions overnight and again on Sunday. An upper level ridge moves over the region into the early portions of the week.
108 PM EDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Warm and mainly dry conditions this afternoon into this evening will give way to showers and chances for a few thunderstorms later tonight into Sunday as a strong cold front moves through.
No impacts in short term as upper level ridge moves over Idaho tonight then east on Sunday.
(Tonight) An absolutely beautiful afternoon across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure promoting mostly sunny and dry conditions -- with the only cloud cover being a scattered flat Cu field. We will be awaiting the arrival of a cold front that will be tied to an upper trough pivoting into the mid-Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys overnight.
Under the regime of high pressure, warm air advection is taking place which has allowed temperatures to climb into the mid to upper-70s across the CWA. Warmer temperatures will be in place through the remainder of the day with assistance of a LLJ that's forecast to build into the region overnight tonight. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be pulling out of the area late Sunday night, as an area of low pressure moves off to the northeast.
Latest water vapor imagery shows the cold front draped across east TX and western AR. /JNE/ (00Z TAFS) A break in storm activity is ongoing until after 16/01-02Z this evening when a cold front approaching from the northwest will bring a squall line & associated strong to severe storm hazards as well as low vsby/cigs down to MVFR with some IFR cigs in E-SE TAF sites.
Although warm advection will begin today therefore it may be a touch warmer. Tomorrow a midlevel ridge slides over the region, which keeps the warming trend going so highs end up closer to normal.
817 PM MDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Showers across the plains have diminished significantly over the past few hours, and only a few clouds remain over the high country and far northeastern Colorado. The overnight hours should be fairly quiet across the region with lows in the single digits to 10s across the high country and 20s to 30s for the plains and urban corridor. Upper ridging will move into the forecast area overnight.
640 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 (Tonight) An absolutely beautiful afternoon across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure promoting mostly sunny and dry conditions -- with the only cloud cover being a scattered flat Cu field. We will be awaiting the arrival of a cold front that will be tied to an upper trough pivoting into the mid-Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys overnight.
630 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 (This evening through Sunday) A cold front has pushed through most of West Central Texas early this afternoon, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures and gusty north winds of 10 to 20 mph.
636 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Key Points: * Showers and Storms Continue for Eastern KS Today * Dry and Warmer for Sunday * Rain Chances Return Midweek * Fire Concerns Nearly Each Day Over the Coming Week As of 2:00 PM Saturday afternoon, a midlevel trough axis continues to slowly progress eastward across the Plains. All thunderstorm activity looks to exit the area by sunset as the eastward progression of the midlevel trough takes the lapse rate plume east as well.
519 PM MDT Sat Apr 15 2023 The trough responsible for the quick shot of snow overnight is now moving off to the east. Skies are mostly clear as ridging begins to build in behind it. This will make for a relatively pleasant Saturday, though highs will remain cooler than normal. Sunday will be dry and warmer as the ridge axis passes through Wyoming.
616 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will lift through the Midsouth this evening, along a Pacific cold front and aided by a strong upper level disturbance.
The cold front is even a little ahead of schedule having the convective assist late in the afternoon with the cap finally giving way. Cooler dew points are arriving across I-30 with a range of 40s and the dry air will continue pour in overnight with a range of air temperatures still expected to get down to around 50 degrees with a wind chill added so to speak.
652 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 (Through tonight ) Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed from northwest Arkansas into extreme eastern Oklahoma just ahead of a cold front that will move east of the area by around 5 pm.
347 PM MDT Sat Apr 15 2023 High pressure and low- to mid-level fair weather cumulus clouds dominate the region today.
The next wave will come tonight as a large upper trough moves across the Ohio Valley pushing a cold front into the area. Ahead of the cold front, another round of storms will be possible after midnight. Given how potent this first round has been and rather weak advection ahead of the next trough, instability will be meager at beast and likely overworked. THANK HEAVENS! Temperatures will be mild with cloud cover and northerly winds behind the front with highs in the low 70s.
(This afternoon through Sunday) The short term portion of the forecast will be dominated by a cold frontal passage on Sunday. High pressure will shift east tonight in advance of an approaching cold front. The high res reflectivity models have been fairly consistent in taking another MCS into the northern GOMEX, cutting off any good inflow to storms along the front tomorrow.
747 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 (00Z TAFS) Issued at XXXXXX MVFR to VFR conditions through the night until another line of showers and thunderstorms moves through the area during the early morning hours on Sunday ahead of a cold front. The next wave will come tonight as a large upper trough moves across the Ohio Valley pushing a cold front into the area. Ahead of the cold front, another round of storms will be possible after midnight. Given how potent this first round has been and rather weak advection ahead of the next trough, instability will be meager at beast and likely overworked. THANK HEAVENS! Temperatures will be mild with cloud cover and northerly winds behind the front with highs in the low 70s.
626 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 30s (northwest Oklahoma) to the lower 40s (southern Oklahoma and north Texas). With clear skies and relatively light winds, radiational cooling may allow for some frost development in parts of northwest Oklahoma where temperatures are forecast to drop to near freezing.
Key Messages: - Much cooler today with periodic showers and a few storms.
Much warmer conditions reigned across the area earlier with highs into the upper 70 and lower 80s. A cold front trailing just west of the showers should reach NW Alabama 3-4 AM, then sweep across the area by the late morning. Westerly winds will increase into the 15-25 mph range Sunday morning, with 20-30 mph winds with some gusts over 35 mph in the higher terrain in the afternoon.
Gusty northwest winds will persist overnight behind strong cold front.
A cold front will approach the state of Florida with another MCS expected to develop over the Gulf of Mexico. This time, however, the MCS is forecast to develop much sooner which will lead to earlier collisions between sea breezes and outflow from storms upstream ahead the cold front. Cold front approaches late Sun with VCTS returning by the afternoon, especially near MCO southward.
Earlier convection across western Kentucky has also diminished, so thicker cirrus may take a bit longer to make it in later tonight out ahead of the approaching cold front currently marching across the Mississippi Valley. Under the regime of high pressure, warm air advection is taking place which has allowed temperatures to climb into the mid to upper-70s across the CWA. Warmer temperatures will be in place through the remainder of the day with assistance of a LLJ that's forecast to build into the region overnight tonight.
(Today and tonight) With the upper trough and surface cold front still west of the area, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to push across the area later this morning and through the afternoon hours. Storms will end this evening as the cold front pushes east of the area.
For today, a cold front will move across the region, bringing a line of showers and storms ahead of the boundary.
1030 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 (This evening through Sunday) Temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 30s (northwest Oklahoma) to the lower 40s (southern Oklahoma and north Texas). With clear skies and relatively light winds, radiational cooling may allow for some frost development in parts of northwest Oklahoma where temperatures are forecast to drop to near freezing.
300 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 The short term is shaping up to be a bit warmer with less wind for most. At the upper levels, ridging will start to nudge into western North Dakota through the day. Afternoon highs will range from the lower 40s east (where some snowpack still exists) to the mid to upper 50s west. It would not be surprising if a few stations across the west reach into the lower 60s. As ridging moves in, the tightest pressure gradient will gradually move east, meaning less wind for most. Lows will range from the lower 20s east to the low to mid 30s west.
Convection continues to weaken as it shifts farther SE into central and northeast LA along an advancing cold front. The cold front is even a little ahead of schedule having the convective assist late in the afternoon with the cap finally giving way. Cooler dew points are arriving across I-30 with a range of 40s and the dry air will continue pour in overnight with a range of air temperatures still expected to get down to around 50 degrees with a wind chill added so to speak.
1123 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends depict a negatively-tilted upper level trough moving through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys this evening. CJC Showers and thunderstorms will lift through the Midsouth this evening, along a Pacific cold front and aided by a strong upper level disturbance.
Latest water vapor imagery shows the cold front draped across east TX and western AR. /JNE/ The storm and rain chances end late night into very early Sunday from west to east and much cooler air moves in with highs Sunday ranging from the mid 60s F to lower 70s F, about 12-17 F cooler than we are seeing this afternoon with only a few clouds remaining by afternoon.
1043 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Key Points: * Showers and Storms Continue for Eastern KS Today * Dry and Warmer for Sunday * Rain Chances Return Midweek * Fire Concerns Nearly Each Day Over the Coming Week As of 2:00 PM Saturday afternoon, a midlevel trough axis continues to slowly progress eastward across the Plains. All thunderstorm activity looks to exit the area by sunset as the eastward progression of the midlevel trough takes the lapse rate plume east as well.
Breezy this afternoon behind the cold front. Discussion: Increasing diffluent flow is moving across the Tennessee Valley this morning ahead of a digging trough seen in WV imagery now exiting the plains. Further west, a line of showers will develop across western/central Tennessee within increasing low level convergence and a cold front. Overnight lows will be a bit cooler than last night with lows in the 40's across most locations.
Vigorous negatively-tilted trough was seen on H20 imagery pivoting northeast over the Ozarks as the associated cold front was moving ENE across west central Illinois. Area of convection over the Wabash Valley in area of deep moisture convergence and low level jet, ahead of the front and trough, was lifting northeast but lack of instability is resulting lack of lightning strikes. However, HRRR and other CAMS were blowing up convection closer to the cold front toward morning.
Temps could also be a touch cooler than expected in spots like Wolf Point. With clear skies and light winds, fog could be possible with the melting snow adding humidity to the low levels. TFJ High pressure and low- to mid-level fair weather cumulus clouds dominate the region today.
917 PM PDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Tranquil weather will continue through Sunday under a weak ridge of high pressure.
1233 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Showers across the plains have diminished significantly over the past few hours, and only a few clouds remain over the high country and far northeastern Colorado. The overnight hours should be fairly quiet across the region with lows in the single digits to 10s across the high country and 20s to 30s for the plains and urban corridor. Upper ridging will move into the forecast area overnight.
This nice spring weather will be short lived as cold front will approach the Northern Rockies this afternoon in Idaho and late this afternoon/evening across western Montana.
253 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2023 We will be moving into the warmest and calmest period of the forecast over the next 24-36 hours as a transitory ridge aloft moves from the Great Basin to the Great Plains.
310 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Today and Tonight: Looking at the synoptic scale, northwesterly flow between an upper-level ridge over the Rocky Mountains and a negatively- tilted low pressure system over the Upper Midwest is driving cold, dry air advection across the Gulf South today. As a cold front continues to push east of the forecast area this morning, the remnants of last night's showers and thunderstorms should clear out.
406 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 A cold front crosses the area this afternoon and evening, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Still looking at showers and possible thunderstorms across e-central Oregon and the west-central Idaho mountains along with a cold frontal passage in the late afternoon and early evening. Areas of LLWS Sunday morning in the lower Snake Plain north and west of KEUL.
1056 PM MDT Sat Apr 15 2023 The trough responsible for the quick shot of snow overnight is now moving off to the east. Skies are mostly clear as ridging begins to build in behind it. This will make for a relatively pleasant Saturday, though highs will remain cooler than normal. Sunday will be dry and warmer as the ridge axis passes through Wyoming.
Lows tonight will be warmer than last night and closer to average as southerly winds persist.
Scattered showers have developed during the late night hours across the offshore Gulf waters, with a few showers also present over the Straits of Florida well south of the Lower Keys. Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, with a weak ridge extending westward across the Florida peninsula, and a cold front extending from Louisiana across the NW Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, water vapor imagery depicts a negatively tilted trough pushing eastward into the Mississippi Valley, with troughing extending far southward into the Gulf.
- Warmer for mid week with multiple chances for rain mid to late week. With the gusty winds, it will feel much cooler.
1028 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends depict a negatively-tilted upper level trough moving through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys this evening. CJC Showers and thunderstorms will lift through the Midsouth this evening, along a Pacific cold front and aided by a strong upper level disturbance.
338 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Upper low centered over IA early this morning has brought wrap- around light snow/flurries into the far eastern CWA, with obs at ETH/VVV showing off and on -SN for the past few hours. Add on top of that low pressure forming in northeast Colorado and departing high over the Western Lakes region generating around ~15mb of pressure gradient across the state.
1224 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 (This evening through Sunday) A cold front has pushed through most of West Central Texas early this afternoon, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures and gusty north winds of 10 to 20 mph.
Despite some increase in the high clouds, there is room for a few more degrees of drop. Earlier convection across western Kentucky has also diminished, so thicker cirrus may take a bit longer to make it in later tonight out ahead of the approaching cold front currently marching across the Mississippi Valley. Under the regime of high pressure, warm air advection is taking place which has allowed temperatures to climb into the mid to upper-70s across the CWA. Warmer temperatures will be in place through the remainder of the day with assistance of a LLJ that's forecast to build into the region overnight tonight. The first half of the extended will be under the influence of a ridge of high pressure.
213 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2023 A ridge of high pressure will be situated right over our region today leading to fair skies and highs in the 60s.
1226 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 (This afternoon through Sunday night) A cold front is presently progressing south across the Pecos River and should clear the Rio Grande late this afternoon. A secondary backdoor cold front is forecast to evolve southwestward before midnight from the western Low Rolling Plains and across the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Big Bend/Davis Mountains overnight. High pressure then settles into the region Sunday with easterly winds gradually veering around to the southeast as said high pressure migrates eastward and return flow commences Sunday night.
/Issued 1147 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023/ /Overnight through Monday/ A couple of beautiful days are expected to finish out the weekend and to start the new week as high pressure builds into the Southern Plains behind yesterday's cold front. With temperatures climbing into the lower 80s and humidity around 20%, there could be some grass fire concerns west of I-35 Monday afternoon.
Seasonal temperatures, light winds, and dry conditions are expected through Sunday, with high pressure in place.
An approaching cold front is increasing southerly winds today, and will bring light rainfall to the northern portion of the area.
This col is bounded by a mid latitude low over the eastern United States and high pressures centered over the Atlantic and Texas. The lower level ridge has shifted to the east and have trended towards confluent southwesterlies.
(Today through Monday Night) Quiet cool/dry weather is expected across SE TX these next couple of days (per the passage of a cold front overnight). Moderate to strong north/northeast winds today along with clearing skies will keep high temperatures in the lower and mid 70s this afternoon. Highs will be a tad warmer (mid to upper 70s) along with Mon night lows (mid to upper 50s for most areas and lower to mid 60s for H-town metro south to the beaches).
602 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 (Today and tonight) Following yesterday's cold front, conditions will be a touch cooler for Sunday.
A cold front will press into the southeastern states today and then push southeastward across the region late this evening through early Monday. An impulse rounding the base of the parent upper trough, which will be displaced well to the northwest, will lift overhead and trigger scattered showers and a possibly few isolated garden-variety t'storms amid the warm and marginally unstable airmass. The cold frontal boundary will press in from the northwest this evening. Drier airmass and clearing skies in the wake of the front will lead to cooler conditions tonight as lows will read in the low to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to around 60 at the coast and portions of north- central FL. High pressure conditions will settle in this week with dry weather, mostly clear skies, and cooler temperatures for the forecast area.
Surface ridging will continue to build across the plains Today through Tonight with NW mid level flow, as the main upper low over the Great Lakes region moves southeast across the Mississippi valley. NW winds will slowly decouple tonight, as the main ridge axis settles over the area, with low temperatures dropping into the lower 30s in central KS. The surface and mid level ridge looks to shift east of the area by Mon afternoon with good downslope flow and warm advection returning to most locations by Mon afternoon. The active pattern continues for the end of the week, with the GFS showing another southward sagging cold front for late Thu night or early on Fri.
(Today and tonight) Some patchy frost will be possible early this morning, with a couple of locations already at or below freezing across central and western OK and localized light winds. This high will shift southeastward to the TX/LA gulf area Monday morning but again light winds, dry boundary layer conditions, and clear skies will result in excellent radiational cooling with lows in the upper 30s across northern OK.
618 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Cooler and much drier air will filter in behind a cold front today with highs in the 60s and lows tonight in the 40s. Another upper-level trough and cold front will bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances back to the Mid-South for late this week.