Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today will be a pleasant day as ridging builds in over the area. Skies will remain mostly clear with light winds under high pressure. Chances will be the highest south of I-70 with better forcing and moisture. Ridging is expected through the remainder of the storm term as heights build in the vicinity of a broad high extending from the upper Great Lakes to New England. This blocking will keep the upper low to the southeast CONUS, along with the best precipitation chances.
100 PM PDT Sun Jun 18 2023 West to northwest winds increase into Monday with cooler temperatures arriving tonight. Moisture channel imagery revealed a closed upper low has reached SW BC and NW WA with a 130 kt upper jet extending from the northeast Pacific into OR. A cold front attendant to the upper trough was pushing through the Bay Area this morning with winds starting to pick up a bit in the higher elevations. The cold front will continue progressing through the Bay Area and Central coast into this evening. After a relatively mild day yesterday look for readings to cool a bit today with highs ranging from 65-70 along the immediate coast and bays, 70-75 for the inland valleys, and 75-80 for the typically warmer inland locations bordering the Sacramento Valley.
255 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight through Monday.
An upper low will stall over the Tennessee Valley through mid to late week.
1244 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will affect much of the Midsouth today, downstream of an upper level low approaching from the central plains. The upper low will stall over the Tennessee Valley through mid to late week.
(This afternoon through Monday night) A weak cold front slid through the Permian Basin early this morning. While this helped keep temperatures cooler, a westerly wind and ample sunshine this afternoon will erase the cooler weather. Temperatures are expected to top out above 100 for most locations outside the higher elevations and far northern Permian Basin for Father's Day. Unfortunately, the mid-level ridge continues to build heading into the coming week. All but the highest of elevations climb into the 100s. Temperatures Monday night will be warmer than tonight with temperatures struggling to fall to the mid 70s for many locations.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Monday Night/ A frontal boundary bisects the region this afternoon separating "cooler" and drier air across our north and west from a hot and humid airmass south of I-20. Strengthening ridging in the mid levels will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 90s to near 105 across our western counties.
Monday Night Through Sunday A warm and quiet stretch of weather is on tap for northeast Wisconsin through the work week as a large area of upper ridging stretches across the Great Lakes region.
Upper level ridging is now building over the FA with highs expected to reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s. The ridge is expected to continue building over the region into tomorrow with even warmer daytime highs in the upper 90s with possibly some areas reaching the lower 100s. The drier air may help aid in temperatures getting this high. PDC and areas in the Canadian River Valley will have the higher chances to reach the triple digits tomorrow afternoon.
Weak convectively-enhanced circulation over northwest Iowa is becoming sheared out as it phases with a larger-scale midlevel trough over Minnesota this afternoon. The main concern with this activity will be isolated pockets of heavy rain, with moisture pooling near the low boosting precipitable water values up to about 1. Rapid height rises on Monday will usher in a much warmer and drier period for much of the week. Similar readings will continue into midweek, before some degradation of the upper ridge allows for a (very) slight cooling trend by the end of the week.
Low pressure continues to spin just off to the southeast of Sioux Falls this morning. Warm air advection will build across the Missouri valley as upper ridging pushes in from the south tonight.
Surface winds have shifted to the northwest across the region this morning behind the passage of a cold front. High temperatures today will run about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, and be accompanied by breezy northwest winds.
-thor PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Today into tonight: Current radar from Great Falls indicates showers moving across western MT, which will eventually reach northeast MT by early afternoon as the upper level trough moves into the intermountain west.
Discussion: An upper trough and low moving towards TN from the OH River Valley will increase rain chances beginning overnight tonight, through the short term period. Gusty winds around 20-25kts are possible in the higher terrain of the East TN Mtns, and Cumberland Plateau as the low meanders over our region. Discussion: We start the period with an upper low just to our northwest drifting south. With weak steering flow beneath an upper ridge and omega block pattern across the Great Lakes region, this cutoff upper low will meander across Southeast CONUS for much of the week.
1203 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 (Today and tonight) The upper trough that brought the isolated severe weather to portions of the forecast area yesterday will depart to the east this morning. A weak upper ridge will build in behind the trough, bringing quiet conditions today.
With daytime heating, the air mass has little cap by afternoon and there is some hint of some very weak low-level moisture convergence between an east/southeast drier, ridge building flow and the resident southerly flow within the axis. It is well agreed in the model guidance that this drier, ridge building push of low-level air continues to scour west Monday night, stabilizing the area for the week.
Monday afternoon and night: Upper ridging develops over the Central Plains to Upper Midwest starting tomorrow, with upper troughing in the PacNW. The increased winds exiting the trough will also increase wind shear over 30 kt for 0-6 km AGL within portions of North Dakota, of which includes the Devils Lake basin.
138 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Aviation Upper ridging prevails today through Monday. A building ridge and high pressure / anticyclone development will encompass much of the Great Lakes region while low pressure sits over the southeast US.
The remainder of the region will be well into the 100s, with only a few spots over the higher terrain of the Hill Country in the upper 90s.
Today, the strong westerly flow aloft will sag south as a strong upper closed low swings into the PacNW. In the lower elevations, cold air advection under the low will result in another 7 to 10 degrees in cooling, with afternoon temps in the 60s.
Increased deep-layer moisture, enhanced by localized moisture pooling in the vicinity of the low-level circulation, could help set the stage for some locally heavy rainfall in any storms that develop near this feature later on. While amounts this high will not be at all widespread, they can't be ruled out for one or two locations if storms end up training similar to what occurred yesterday over western MN.
The pattern much of this coming week will be dominated by a high pressure ridge to our southeast over Mexico and a low pressure trough to our northwest.
140 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure will build down over the region today, then slides off the coast for this evening through Monday.
This is likely to continue into tonight until Monday as an upper low traverses across Tennessee and Alabama. As the upper low influences our area, the stalled frontal boundary that has been in the vicinity of the I-20 corridor should push south and west. This should set up a nice recovery of airmass ahead of a deepening low pressure system. As mentioned previously, the pattern should wind down this week, replaced by a rex block pattern that should relieve us from most activity in the midst of an upper low advecting drier air on the backside.
The high pressure will linger over the Florida Straits and a frontal boundary across the Southeast and Gulf Coast will remain stationary.
However, strong winds will peak on Monday as a deep area of low pressure settles over the Pacific Northwest. This low will keep temperatures below normal through the week. Midday satellite loop showed deep, cold low pressure slowly sliding south along the British Columbia coast. As of noon, the temperature was five degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, and the high yesterday was 98F. However, temperatures aloft were slowly cooling in response to the low getting closer, and this will likely cause today's hourly temperature curve to flatten out more quickly than yesterday's.
121 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure will bring sunshine and seasonable temperatures today with light winds.
1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 (Today and tonight) A tightly wound upper low is currently moving east through southern Kansas. An outflow boundary/cold front is moving south into our area this morning, which will turn winds to the north across areas north of Interstate 20 between now and sunrise, and will continue south, likely stalling in our southern counties later today. This will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler in the Big Country today with highs mainly in the mid 90s.
Looking back to the west, an upper trough axis continues to rotate thru the mid/southern Plains and into the mid MS Valley. Latest model suites continue to indicate a tstm complex developing along this approaching trough pattern.
250 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure will build down over the region today, then slides off the coast for this evening through Monday.
Weak surface ridging then builds into eastern KS and western MO tonight with surface winds becoming light/variable. Crossover temperatures will likely be in the mid 60s and forecast lows are in the lower 60s. Upper-level ridging will build over the middle of the country this week. That will result in a warming trend with highs in the lower to middle 90s likely. The upper ridge weakens/ flattens out and allows for stronger upper flow to move over the area.
general high pressure will promote fair dry weather throughout the region. but high pressure at the surface will remain control.
151 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure will remain across the region today offering dry weather and warmer temperatures.
Models have the closed 500 mb low deepening to the southeast of the region Monday and Monday night, with an axis of the 500 mb ridge from southwest to northeast across the region. This will result in high pressure lingering to the east of the region, and will continue to bring dry conditions.
(This evening through Monday) As the upper ridge establishes itself, sunny skies and warmer temperatures will dominate the forecast.
Currently have very mild lows for Monday night, with readings possibly staying warmer than 70 degrees.
1205 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Warm dry weather expected for much of the area over the next several days as high pressure becomes the dominant feature.
302 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure, at the surface and aloft, will maintain very dry conditions into the early to mid week period.
Expect this activity to increase some this afternoon, mainly from daytime heating and the approach of the midlevel trough and a weak cold front. The cold front will also impact the remainder of the state this afternoon, with strong winds expected to continue ramping up.
148 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Upper ridge remains in control through Monday with no precipitation expected. Temperatures will warm a few more degrees with highs on Monday in the low to mid 90s.
Weak/flat ridging over the area along with drier conditions today have allowed temperatures to reach the 80s across almost all of the lower elevations, with a few spots in the Denver metro pushing towards the mid/upper 80s. Ridging will build to the east on Monday, with increasing southwesterly flow aloft. Mid-level temperatures should warm a few degC warmer than today, and we'll likely make a run at the 90s across the metro for the first time this year. With almost no moisture noted in model cross sections, only a few clouds will accompany the warmer temperatures. Colorado will spend most of the period between upper level troughing to our northwest and ridging to our south and southeast. There will be persistent and generally increasing southwesterly flow aloft as those features intensify, promoting drier and warmer weather than in recent weeks.
257 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 The main concerns for the next few days will be the heat, then mid week into the weekend will be a battle between an upper level ridge near and east of the area and a developing trough over the Rockies. Even with this extreme heat thunderstorms are not expected as the enhanced mixing drier out the low to mid levels and areas east of the extreme mixing a stronger capping inversion holds.
1248 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Low pressure will develop across the region early this week and then prevail into late week. Through the rest of the night the pattern aloft will turn increasingly more cyclonic as a developing upper low begins to shift toward the Tennessee Valley.
This will lead to a return of southerly winds tonight and hence dewpoints will begin to increase helping to keep overnight low temperatures a bit warmer than this morning.
A bit warmer this aftn within deeply subsident upper ridge axis and reflected in warming 850mb thermal ridge. Similar case on Monday esp east where greater mixing anticipated newd of closing upper low over wrn KY. Wrn KY upper low will settle swd to near the Gulf Coast by late Wed while upper ridge builds dramatically across the Great Lakes. Otherwise compressional warming under upper ridge will accentuate thermal ridge with 90s temps likely mid to late week as drought induced feedback loop is realized within daily diurnal ranges. Otherwise, the upper low across Missouri will slowly shift east, reaching western Kentucky midday Monday. Tightening low level gradient and strengthening easterlies to the north of this upper low should favor some peak diurnal gusts to around 20 knots Monday afternoon.
8, with just a small amount of dry air being entrained into updrafts in the low to mid levels. The upper level trough that supports the MCV to the south eventually becomes cutoff from the overall pattern and camps itself over the southeastern U. This creates a rex block, sandwiching Iowa between the closed low in the southeast and troughing over the northwest. Therefore, ridging will control the forecast through the next few days.
202 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2023 In the wake of a cold front that progressed through the area today, temperatures will be around 10 degrees below average the next few days as the cool air remains in place.
Cooler temperatures and light precipitation will be ushered in by an upstream disturbance.
548 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Upper ridge remains in control through Monday with no precipitation expected. Temperatures will warm a few more degrees with highs on Monday in the low to mid 90s.
Overnight lows will drop to / hold in the low- mid 70s. Thunderstorms will develop once again Monday afternoon, with the highest chances within 20nm of the coastline.
Temps generally near normal with lows in the lower 70s inland and middle 70s along the coast and the increasing cloud cover should keep any fog formation limited to patchy in nature over inland areas after midnight.
825 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 A few showers and storms will affect southeast IL on Monday, however rest of the week looks quite warm and dry as another blocking pattern takes shape over the United States.
Weak surface ridging then builds into eastern KS and western MO tonight with surface winds becoming light/variable. Crossover temperatures will likely be in the mid 60s and forecast lows are in the lower 60s. Upper-level ridging will build over the middle of the country this week. That will result in a warming trend with highs in the lower to middle 90s likely. The upper ridge weakens/ flattens out and allows for stronger upper flow to move over the area. For now it looks like the highest potential will be at STJ.
538 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 The main concerns for the next few days will be the heat, then mid week into the weekend will be a battle between an upper level ridge near and east of the area and a developing trough over the Rockies. Even with this extreme heat thunderstorms are not expected as the enhanced mixing drier out the low to mid levels and areas east of the extreme mixing a stronger capping inversion holds.
556 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Messages: - Dangerous heat in store again for Monday with Excessive Heat Warning for inland areas and Heat Advisory for coastal region - All-time record high expected at Laredo Monday with record high at Corpus Christi - Moderate risk of rip currents will continue into Monday The mid level ridge will build over south Texas on Monday.
737 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Slow-moving low pressure will push into Kentucky tonight and tomorrow and then stall before shifting south.
CIRA Geocolor was revealing a fantastic display of a conductively induced vorticity max within a broad scale trough. The cirrus shield in southwest flow, ahead of this low, has thinned some and has not limited the temperature recovery. The upper trough will move to southeastern Missouri by 00z and near Evansville by 12z Monday after which it will drift south over western Kentucky. Increase in clouds will limit the temperature drop tonight with overnight lows only in the lower and mid 60s. Higher confidence northern sections will see near seasonable highs in the lower and mid 80s.
Warmer and mostly dry conditions next work week. Overnight lows look to drop into the low 60s. (Monday through Sunday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Ensemble guidance continues to be in good agreement in building a high amplitude ridge across the central U. Daily high temperatures range from the low 90s across the west to the mid 80s across the eastern Ozarks in closer proximity to the upper- level low. Upper level low was pushing out of the area early this evening, with a few remaining showers, but probabilities of reaching a forecast site after 00z are pretty low and have left out of the 00z TAFS for now.
601 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 A few showers and storms will affect southeast IL on Monday, however rest of the week looks quite warm and dry as another blocking pattern takes shape over the United States.
Otherwise it's likely to be dry tomorrow as this low should push east before another round of convection can erupt east of our forecast area tomorrow.
703 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 High pressure in Quebec and southern Ontario reaches back into the central Great Lakes with a supply of VFR conditions tonight and Monday. High pressure, at the surface and aloft, will maintain very dry conditions into the early to mid week period.
940 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Slow-moving low pressure will push into Kentucky tonight and tomorrow and then stall before shifting south.
600 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 (This afternoon through Monday night) A weak cold front slid through the Permian Basin early this morning. While this helped keep temperatures cooler, a westerly wind and ample sunshine this afternoon will erase the cooler weather. Temperatures are expected to top out above 100 for most locations outside the higher elevations and far northern Permian Basin for Father's Day. Unfortunately, the mid-level ridge continues to build heading into the coming week. All but the highest of elevations climb into the 100s. Temperatures Monday night will be warmer than tonight with temperatures struggling to fall to the mid 70s for many locations.
In the wake of a cold front that progressed through the area today, temperatures will be around 10 degrees below average the next few days as the cool air remains in place.
In the mid to upper levels, troughing remains in place across much of the Florida peninsula with ridging over the western GOM and eastern Mexico just south of Texas. At the surface, a ridge remains over the western North Atlantic with an extension of this ridge through the Florida Keys. From synopsis, light to gentle breezes are expected overnight through Monday as ridging lifts northward and into the western North Atlantic.
617 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 (This evening through Monday) As the upper ridge establishes itself, sunny skies and warmer temperatures will dominate the forecast.
1001 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 An upper trough/low pressure will dig southeast into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys tonight and Monday. Jet streaks/shear axis will rotate around this low enhancing upper forcing and isentropic lift. Discussion: An upper trough and low moving towards TN from the OH River Valley will increase rain chances beginning overnight tonight, through the short term period. Gusty winds around 20-25kts are possible in the higher terrain of the East TN Mtns, and Cumberland Plateau as the low meanders over our region. Discussion: We start the period with an upper low just to our northwest drifting south. With weak steering flow beneath an upper ridge and omega block pattern across the Great Lakes region, this cutoff upper low will meander across Southeast CONUS for much of the week.
Rain chances return at the end of the period as a cold front tries to work in. Low pressure was located over Iowa this afternoon with showers and isolated thunderstorms over eastern and northern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Upper level ridging and high pressure to our east will then act to keep dry conditions in place for much of the week. Southerly flow at the surface over the region on the backside of the high off to our east will lead to increasing temperatures with highs reaching the 80s and 90s for midweek. Over the latter portion of the week and heading into the weekend, a cold front and upper trough will attempt to move out of the Northern Plains and into the Northland.
Expect this activity to increase some this afternoon, mainly from daytime heating and the approach of the midlevel trough and a weak cold front. The cold front will also impact the remainder of the state this afternoon, with strong winds expected to continue ramping up. The cold front moving in from Idaho will continue showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening, with some showers persisting overnight.
However, strong winds will peak on Monday as a deep area of low pressure settles over the Pacific Northwest. This low will keep temperatures below normal through the week. Meanwhile, gusty southwest winds will persist this evening and overnight as an approaching trough in the PacNW edges closer. Midday satellite loop showed deep, cold low pressure slowly sliding south along the British Columbia coast. As of noon, the temperature was five degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, and the high yesterday was 98F. However, temperatures aloft were slowly cooling in response to the low getting closer, and this will likely cause today's hourly temperature curve to flatten out more quickly than yesterday's.
An upper trough is settling across the region today, bringing robust winds, colder conditions, and areas of frost to the silver state. This inclement weather will persist into mid week before the trough weakens. This trough will cause light rain showers and high elevation snow showers through the same time frame for northern and eastern Nevada. A large lenticular field across the silver state shows the arrival of a trough and colder air that will persist for several days. The moisture field associated with the trough can cause an isolated shower or a thunderstorm today (20-30%) along the northern border of NV for today. As colder air is moved across the silver state expect the highs of 70s and 80s today to fall to 60s and 70s with a few spots of 50s for Monday.
Scattered midlevel clouds will continue to fill into the region this evening, as the cold upper level low pressure system continues to move into the Pacific Northwest. As this anomalously cold low pressure system moves in, snow levels will drop to 6000-7000 feet MSL with mountain ridgelines above 7500 feet MSL seeing up to 6 inches of snow through Monday night.